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BIRD WATCHING

I did a video on the Cardinals bullpen a while back, but now I want to update and go deeper in exploring an important subject that will have a big influence — good or bad — on the team’s record in 2025.

The 2024 Cardinals won 83 games because of the firewall set up by their relievers in the bullpen. The boys extinguished many flames. They prevented disasters. The team’s overall relief performance wasn’t just dependable; it was exceptional.

No bullpen can be perfect, but the 2024 Cardinals had a damn good one. The Redbirds led the majors with 55 saves, with closer Ryan Helsley locking down a MLB-high 49 of the clinchers.

I like to use the Win Probability Added metric to measure bullpens, and the 2024 Cardinals ranked 7th among the 29 St. Louis ‘pens in action since Bill DeWitt Jr. became franchise owner in 1996.

Last season the bullpen provided amazing protection in handling late-inning threats.

Here are some fun facts for your reading enjoyment.

– The Cardinals were 64-4 when leading a game after seven innings, for a .941 winning percentage that ranked 7th in the majors.

– Because of “Hells Bells” Helsley, the Cardinals were an astonishing 69-1 when leading through eight innings. That unrelenting rate was No. 1 in the NL and second to Cleveland overall.

– Helsley was voted NL’s Reliever of the Year but he was just the last line of defense. Other reliever-guard-dogs were poised and fierce with the pressure swirling. Cardinals relievers were resolute in the 7th, 8th and 9th innings last season, leading the NL and ranking No. 2 overall with a 3.21 ERA in over the final three innings before games went into “overtime” with the ghost runner system that puts a man at second base at the start of the inning to make it easier to score.

– The Cardinals went 18-9 when tied through six innings. The bullpen wasn’t the only reason for this, but the .667 winning percentage in those scenarios is a strong indication of how often the STL relievers won the bullpen vs. bullpen showdowns.

Because of this reliable security operation, the Cardinals had the NL’s second-best record (29-22) in games decided by a one-run margin. Tilting so many close games to their side is the No. 1 reason why the Cardinals avoided a second straight losing season. No question about it, the bullpen was the strength of the team in ‘24.

Though his rabid, maniacal critics will never give him credit for anything, Oli Marmol did a masterful job of running the bullpen in 2024. You don’t win as many close games or turn late leads into wins unless the manager knows what he’s doing.

However, bullpens are combustible. Elbow ligaments snap, and shoulders become unhinged. The injuries – or an unexpected loss of velocity – can cause extreme fluctuations and instability. And Marmol can’t have a lapse in his bullpen acumen in 2025.

Which brings us to the Question of the Day: Can the Cardinals bullpen replicate its unyielding performance from 2024? It will be a challenge.

For all of the superb relief work we witnessed last season, this area isn’t free of concern. Here are some items on my mind …

+ Can Helsley do this two years in a row? He had a peak-form season in 2024, but injuries have caused detours in his career. He missed 20 days in 2019, 48 days in 2021, and 83 days in 2023. And there was that late season jammed-finger injury that led to Helsley to implode during the 9th inning meltdown that cost the Cardinals Game 1 of the 2022 wild-card series vs. Philadelphia.

Last season Helsley’s average fastball sizzled at an average of 99.6 miles per hour, putting him in the top one percent of pitchers for highest velo. He cranked up usage on his slider, a devil of a pitch that caused hitters to chase non-strikes and have an overall 55% whiff-swing rate.

Helsley’s 2024 was so outstanding, he came away with the highest Win Probability Added figure by a St. Louis reliever in a season during the 29-year Bill Dewitt Jr. era. And Helsley’s WPA was the third best by a Cards reliever in a season during the expansion era, which began in 1961. The only higher WPAs were turned in by Al Hrabosky in 1975, and Bruce Sutter in 1984.

Helsley set such a tremendously high standard in 2024, I just wonder if he can repeat it. That’s asking a lot of him. But if he stays healthy, he’ll be the most valuable performer on the 2025 Cardinals.

+ Andrew Kittredge is gone, signing a two-year free-agent contract with the Orioles. The sturdy set-up man led the NL with 37 holds last season and was often the eighth-inning bridge that led to Helsley. Kittredge had a 2.04 ERA in the 8th inning last season, and held batters to a .188 average and .561 OPS in close-late situations. This is a big loss for the St. Louis bullpen.

+ Eight of the top nine Cards relievers – based on most innings pitched – are back in 2025. That will help ease the sting of losing Kittredge. But even with Kittredge, the Cardinals ranked 22nd in the majors with a 22 percent bullpen strikeout rate. The group just doesn’t miss as many bats as you’d like to see … though that could change if a few high-velocity sources have more important roles in 2025. That heat list would include Matthew Liberatore, prospect Tekoah Roby, and Riley O’Brien.

+ We’ll be monitoring JoJo Romero. The Cardinals once again will rely on the lefty as a crucial late-inning force, and JoJo had 30 holds in 2024. But fatigue or physical discomfort got to him after his great start to the season. Romero did bounce back later in the season, but here are the facts: Romero had a poor 18% strikeout rate over the final five months last season … and a 5.17 ERA over the final four months. The Cardinals do have two other lefties set to lean on: Liberatore and John King. And there’s always a chance of starter Steven Matz being transferred to the bullpen again in 2025.

+ How important were Kittredge and Romero at getting the save opportunity to Helsley? Either Romero or Kittredge worked the eighth inning in 38 of Helsley’s 49 saves. And when one of them pitched the eighth, the other was often used in the seventh inning.

+ Liberatore looms as a key piece, and potential standout. Once the Cardinals stopped shuffling Linbby from the bullpen to being a starter to going back to the bullpen, he did very well late in the season with a 2.67 ERA and a 25.4% strikeout rate during the final two months. In the surge, Liberatore (a lefty) iced left-handed hitters with a 27% strikeout rate, faced 52 LH batters without allowing a run, and held them to a .224 batting average. But he’s still wrestling with right-handed batters; they popped him for a .433 slugging percentage over the final two months.

+ Down the stretch, Liberatore worked five 8th innings to set up Helsley’s saves – an indication of the higher level of trust put on him by Marmol. This could have been a preview of his role in ’25.

+ Ryan Fernandez had a fantastic rookie season in 2024 after being selected in the Rule V Draft from Boston. (Thanks, Chaim Bloom.) Fernandez, 26, had an assassin slider that got hitters to bat .182 with a 41 percent whiff-swing rate. He has to have a better shape on his four-seam fastball in 2025. Last season the workload caused Fernandez to labor in July and August, and his strikeout rate fizzled. But in the other four months of the season, the right-hander had a 2.62 ERA and 28% strikeout rate.

In his second big-league season will Fernandez be ready to move into the high-leverage spots handled so gracefully by Kittredge in 2024? We’ll see. He’s good. But last season Fernandez was called in to handle the eighth inning only two times before handing it over to Helsley for the save.

The Job Watch

Unless injuries disrupt the plans, five bullpen spots are sealed in: Helsley, Fernandez, Liberatore, Romero and ground-ball machine lefty John King.

I asked my friend and KMOX colleague Matt Pauley – a regular in Camp Jupiter – to provide clarity on the competition. Basically, three spots are unclaimed, and seven right-handed relievers are getting after it: Gordon Graceffo, Tekoah Roby, Chris Roycroft, Riley O’Brien, Kyle Leahy, Nick Anderson and Roddery Munoz. That roll call of the seven righties isn’t a ranking.

Graceffo and Roby have been very impressive through the team’s first 10 exhibition games. Roycroft was strong against RH batters last season but got rocked by left-handed hitters. Is he coming up with anything to neutralize LH bats?

O’Brien has blistering velocity, but that also caused breakdowns. In 10 major-league appearances for three teams, O’Brien has an 11.25 ERA – but his strikeout ratio of 12.4 Ks per nine innings is compelling. But O’Brien isn’t a “kid.” He turned 30 years old last month. If he’s going to build a major-league career, this is the perfect time to do it.

Leahy did a fine, underrated job last season of layering multiple innings in an appearance to protect other relievers from overuse; he covered more than an inning in 20 of his 33 appearances. Leahy is vulnerable against LH batters, but his 2024 profile included a couple of gems: A) he allowed a .225 average and .621 OPS in late-and-close situations; and B) in high-leverage spots Leahy was nicked for a .217 average and .556 OPS. In other words he was better in pressurized conditions than I would have assumed.

Munoz throws really hard … but has a 6.53 ERA in the majors, without much strikeout punch, and Memphis seems like a logical place for him to dig in at the start of the 2025 season.

Three Questions …

1. Can Nick Anderson become a high-value bargain find? Anything is possible. And for the cheap price of a minor-league contract the Cardinals wanted to take a look. Anderson, who turns 35 in July, is trying to regenerate his career after flaming out.

In his first 87 major-league relief appearances Anderson had a preposterous 42.2 percent strikeout rate. That wasn’t sustainable … and damage ensued.

Here’s the list of Anderson’s list of injuries starting with the 2020 season:

* 12 days, forearm
164 days, elbow
7 days, lower-back strain
137 days, elbow
15 days, foot
*** 81 days, shoulder strain

Bringing Anderson in was a no-risk gamble. I hope the poor dude can pitch without suffering any additional physical breakdowns. But if we pay attention to early spring-training stats – and I think they’re relevant in Anderson’s case – it isn’t encouraging. In three appearances covering 2.1 innings, Anderson has faced 14 hitters. And they’ve smacked him for six hits, five earned runs, a homer, and three walks. His Grapefruit League ERA is 19.29.

Anderson may require time in Memphis to get grooving … if there is a groove. But I wouldn’t put it past the Cardinals to give Anderson a big-league job over one of their young relievers, but that would also require putting Anderson on the 40-man roster.

2. What about Helsley’s trade value? Three things could tamp down the interest in the valuable closer before the July 31 deadline: A) an injury; B) a concerning drop in velo and performance; and C) the qualifying-offer aspect of acquiring him. A team that deals for Helsley after the All-Star break would NOT be eligible to make a qualifying offer to him after the season, and thus will receive no draft-pick compensation if he signs a free-agent deal with another club. The absence of a qualifying offer could lower Helsley’s overall value on the market; it really depends on the team(s) that really covet him. Hopefully Helsley can stay healthy and sturdy and cash in on free agency after the season. He’s a good guy.

3. If 2025 is a “runway” season set up to give opportunities to younger hitters and pitchers, wouldn’t that mean early-season bullpen spots for Roby and Graceffo? And wouldn’t Liberatore – who looks fabulous so far this spring – be strongly considered for a rotation spot? Answer: it isn’t a true “runway” season. It’s just another marketing pitch to keep fans interested, and the Cards manager and front office (and media) overuse the term so much, it’s more of a season-campaign slogan than anything else.

That said, if Graceffo isn’t in the big-league bullpen on opening day, you’ll have to excuse me for giggling about this “runway” babbling. But I think he’ll earn a place. As for Roby, he has a chance to pitch his way into the major-league bullpen sooner than expected, but the Cardinals can justify sending him to Memphis by telling us he’ll be “stretching out” as a potential starter. See, here’s the problem: it’s difficult to trust their words, and frankly it has made me more cynical than I’d like to be. If 2025 evolves into an actual “runway” season I’ll be happy to give the front office credit. Delighted, even.

In Conclusion …

The 2025 bullpen has talent and some potential new additions that have been showing out in camp. But a lot of positives must kick in for the 2025 bullpen to resemble the last year’s emergency squad. I believe there will be a higher level of mayhem in 2025 — simply because I don’t think ’24 can be repeated. I

Here’s an example of what I’m talking about: of the teams that had a Top 10 Win Probability ranking in 2023, only five repeated that in 2024. Toronto went from 3rd to 28th. Baltimore went from 6th to 17th. Seattle went from 9th to 21st, and Pittsburgh was 24th in WPA after being 10th the previous year.

Helsley will have to come up big again. Fernandez will have to prove he can be a reliable high-leverage guy, and he walked too many hitters when deployed in high-lev joints in ‘24. Romero’s swing-and-miss component must be consistently strong. Liberatore has a chance to become a towering presence in eighth-inning hold opportunities, and that would make him more valuable in a relief role. But he’ll have to deliver. The assortment of younger relief candidates have to prove they’re ready for the show. I guess there’s always a chance of the front office adding a stray free agent reliever. Marmol was superlative in his bullpen maneuvers last season – and now he must do it again.

Thanks for reading …

And as always, pardon my typos.

–Bernie

The post Bernie’s Bird Watching: The Cardinals’ Bullpen Set A High Standard In 2024. Could Be Difficult To Repeat That In 2025. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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BIRD WATCHING

Good day to you. The Cardinals were off Monday, and it was a good time for a break. The spring-training grind tends to become tedious after the first two weeks, and once teams reach March, they can see the start of the regular season out there on the horizon. At the time I type this, the real baseball begins 24 days from now at Busch Stadium.

The Cardinals are 3-6 through their first nine Grapefruit League games. I don’t care about spring-training records, and I don’t like to make too much of a fuss about statistics. I make exceptions on checking the numbers of younger hitters and pitchers who are A) trying to build confidence, B) trying to make the 26-man roster, C) trying to earn considerable playing time once the real baseball gets underway. And it’s important to take note of spring-time injuries because the physical breakdowns can impact your team – especially early in the season.

Before I offer today’s serving, let me get this out of the way to cover the stuff I write about.

I know it’s early.

I know the numbers are small samples.

Or sliver-sized samples.

I know that you can’t really trust spring-training performances, good or bad, and I am definitely aware of it.

I realize that veteran pitchers and hitters are “working on things” and aren’t concerned with their personal stats.

I realize the quality of the opponent – pitcher or hitter – factors into this. It’s easier to beat up on a minor-league caliber hitter or pitcher than an established major-league talent.

OK, let’s begin …

3 Things I Like About The Cardinals so far …

1. The young pitching looks good. And that’s what you’re hoping to see. I’m not saying all is swell; prospect Tink Hence got slapped around in his one appearance, and hard-luck lefty Zack Thompson will be lost for several weeks (or longer) with a strained lat.

Overall, there are positive developments. Eight young or inexperienced pitchers – Matthew Liberatore, Ryan Fernandez, Quinn Mathews, Michael McGreevy, Gordon Graceffo, Riley O’Brien, Tekoah Roby, and Kyle Leahy – have combined for 24 innings pitched – and allowed two earned runs and eight hits. More importantly, the eight have walked 29 strikeouts with only four walks and three hit batters. There’s been a lot of swing-and-miss stuff, and the Cardinals need more of that in ‘25.

2. Victor Scott II, Round II: The second-year outfielder sure packed a lot of dynamite offense into his 12 early plate appearances. Scott is 5 for 9 with three walks, three stolen bases, three RBIs, a home run, a triple and a team-leading 10 total bases. His .556 batting average is backed by a superb 1.178 OPS.

This torrent of offense represents a continuation of what we saw from Scott late last season. In his final 19 games of 2024, Scott batted .311 with a .394 onbase percentage and .467 slug. His spree included three steals and five extra-base hits.

And that continuation is more meaningful to me. Scott is doing all that he can to win a roster spot – and the starting job in center field. A lot of this depends on Oli Marmol; he may prefer Lars Nootbaar or Michael Siani in CF.

3. Nolan Arenado’s bat speed: Hat tip on this to Kevin Wheeler, my friend and KMOX colleague who shared his research. Last season Arenado’s bat speed averaged 70.7 mph. So far this spring, Arenado is averaging 74 mph on his swings. This is relevant for two reasons: A) Arenado’s two best months in 2024 coincided with his two best bat-speed readings. And Arenado also spent the winter doing special training devised to quicken his hands. In his early spring-training games, 5 of 11 Arenado’s balls in play were clocked at 92 mph or higher – and those five shots averaged 98.5 miles per hour.

3 Things I DON’T Like About The Cardinals so far …

1. The offense is brutal. Yes indeed it’s only been nine games. But as of late Monday afternoon, March 3, the Cardinals rank last among the 30 teams in batting average (.184), onbase percentage (.297), slugging percentage (.316) and OPS (.613). Plus: the Redbirds are 27th in runs scored, and only five teams have struck out more frequently than STL. Hey, we can say ‘it’s only spring training,’ which is factually correct. But doesn’t “it’s only spring training” apply to the other 29 teams as well?

2. Logjams. Always the logjams. This is more about the offense. Too many left-handed hitters. Too much redundancy in talent profiles, with similar players all over the place. Arenado being back at third base has caused the predictable chain reaction, and that complicates the sorting-out process.

Example: Arenado at third base means Nolan Gorman at second base and probably taking more at-bats as the designated hitter … which means more time, maybe a lot more time, for Brendan Donovan in left field .. which means Lars Nootbaar (possibly) in center field … and if Gorman starts a lot of games at DH, that will lead to fewer DH at-bats for Alec Burleson … and with Donovan in the lineup more frequently at left field, that means fewer starts in left field for Burleson … Burleson is the backup first baseman, but he can’t left-handed pitching. And with Marmol having Gorman, Willson Contreras, Burleson and Luken Baker as options for DH – that applies to Contreras only when he isn’t playing first base – that means fewer DH at-bats for catcher Ivan Herrera … and with Arenado still with the Cardinals, there’s no room at the in for rookie infielder Thomas Saggese, who needs to play. (Read: Memphis). On and on and on it goes. How can the Cardinals set a 26-man roster with an excess of puzzle pieces?

I need some Advil.

3. Quin Matthews, take your tools and go. The suave lefty – Baseball America’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year last season – was sent to the minor-league side of camp. The Cardinals’ next, best hope for a young rotation ace made just one two-inning start before the Cardinals moved him out of the big-league camp. This was expected, and it makes sense to have Mathews lock into a firm routine to get ready for his time at Triple A Memphis.

And it will be better for Mathews to log some Memphis time this season before the Cardinals promote him to the big-league rotation.

(Of course, we can’t do anything to interfere with co-aces Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz … sorry for the sarcasm.)

Anyway, I didn’t expect it to see Mathews moving his things to the minor-league barracks so soon. A theory: the Cardinals wanted Mathews to clear out before the fans began assuming he had a real shot of making the big-league rotation.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

The post Bernie’s Bird Watching: 3 Things I Like — And Dislike — About Cardinals’ Spring Training So Far. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

It’s that time of the year again. The St. Louis Cardinals recently announced their 2025 Hall of Fame ballot nominees, and now I get to write about it. I’ve been doing this for several years now, and I’m a member of the Red Ribbon Hall of Fame Committee, which means I’ve studied the cases of a few dozen players for the last 10 years or so. My scribing tradition of publicly evaluating the candidates continues, but fans get to make the final call.

The Cardinals Hall of Fame is a jewel – one of the best individual-team Hall of Fames in the United States. The history on display is stunning in its scope and prestige.

Up for election via fan vote this year – in alphabetical order – are Steve Carlton, George Hendrick, Brian Jordan and Edgar Renteria.

STEVE CARLTON

Overview: “Lefty” earned eternal baseball acclaim by building his Hall of Fame career in Philadelphia after being moved to the Phillies in 1972 because of a salary dispute. The Cards received starting pitcher Rick Wises trade after a salary dispute put him there before the 1972 season. But Carlton’s journey to Cooperstown began in St. Louis, and he was a very good pitcher during his time as a Cardinal.

From 1965 through 1971, Carlton posted a record of 77-62 with a 3.10 ERA, 66 complete games, and 16 shutouts over 1,265 and ⅓ innings.

Making the Case: During the expansion era, which began in 1961, here’s where Carlton ranks among St. Louis starting pitchers who amassed at least 1,000 innings.

+ Earned Run Average: Carlton’s 3.10 ERA is 3rd to only Bob Gibson (2.84) and Chris Carpenter (3.07)

+ Wins Above Replacement: 6th behind Gibson, Wainwright, Bob Forsch, Carpenter and Matt Morris. This is based on the FanGraphs version of WAR.

+ Strikeouts: among starting pitchers, Carlton is 7th behind Gibson, Wainwright, Carpenter, Forsch, Lance Lynn and Matt Morris.

+ Shutouts: Only Gibson (55) and Forsch (19) have more shutouts than Carlton since 1961.

+ Complete games: With 66, Carlton ranks third to Gibson (251) and Forsch (67.)

+ All-Star selections: During the expansion era Gibson leads with eight All-Star honors, and Carlton (3) is tied for second with Carpenter and Wainwright.

+ Cardinal career notable: Carlton is one of only two Cardinal pitchers to win 75+ games before the age of 27. The other was Dizzy Dean with 121.

Postseason: Lefty pitched in two World Series for the Cardinals (1967 and ‘68), making one start and two relief appearances, and had a 2.70 ERA in 10 innings. Even though the Cardinals lost Game 5 of the 1967 World Series to the Red Sox by a 3-1 score, Carlton was nicked for only one unearned run in his six innings of outstanding work. In ‘68, the Tigers got to Carlton for three earned runs and seven hits in four innings.

Peak years in St. Louis: From 1967 through 1969 — Carlton made two All-Star teams, pitched in two World Series, won 44 games, and sculpted a 2.69 ERA. During the three seasons Carlton ranked fourth among NL starting pitchers in fielding independent ERA (2.57), seventh in standard ERA (2.69), 10th in strikeouts, and was 21 percent above the league average per ERA+ And I should note that Carlton provided this elite pitching in his age 22, 23 and 24 seasons.

Summary: Based on what he did in St. Louis, Carlton is worthy of induction into the Cardinals Hall of Fame; he certainly meets the established standards. But he will always be known for his remarkable peak years with the Phillies. From 1972 through 1983, Carlton won three Cy Young awards, 208 games and was chosen for seven All-Star games. Because of his fame in Philadelphia, St. Louis fans understandably see him more as a Phillie than a Cardinal, and that works against him. Truthfully, how many of the younger (voting) fans even know who Carlton is?

GEORGE HENDRICK

Overview: The outfielder was known as “Silent George” because he declined to speak to the media. And ironically, Silent George and the late, great Rick Hummel were on very friendly terms; Hendrick just never wanted to talk on the record, and he respected Hummel for honoring that and treating him like a human being instead of an interview subject. Hummel, my friend and colleague, thought highly of Hendrick and advocated his induction into the Cardinals Hall Fame before passing away in the spring of 2023. Hummel always stressed the point: The Cardinals don’t have a World Series-winning 1982 season without the many contributions of George Hendrick. He spent seven seasons (1978-84) with the Cardinals.

A look back at 1982: Hendrick was an essential piece of Whitey Herzog’s of 1982 World Series champion. During the ‘82 regular season, Hendrick led the Cards in homers (19), RBIs (104) and generated the highest slugging percentage (.450) among the 10 Redbirds who played in at least 100 games that season.

Hendrick batted .308 in STL’s victory over Atlanta in the three-game 1982 NLCS. In the ‘82 World Series triumph over Milwaukee, Silent George and Lonnie Smith tied for the team lead with a .321 batting average – and Hendrick hurt the Brewers with five RBIs, five runs scored, and the single that drove home the go-ahead run in a stirring St. Louis comeback in the Game 7 victory.

Hendrick had a unique personality. When the Cardinals clinched the 1982 World Series at home, Silent George eschewed the normal post-game celebration. Still wearing the full uniform, he hustled to the players’ parking lot and drove home to beat the traffic.

Cardinal Career notables:

– As a Cardinal Hendrick had a batting line of .294 / .345 / .470 for a set of numbers that were well above the overall MLB offensive production by outfielders from 1978-1984. And Hendrick also took over at first base after Herzog traded Keith Hernandez to the Mets early on June 15, 1983.

– During his St. Louis career Hendrick won two silver slugger awards, was picked for two All-Star games, and received NL MVP votes in four consecutive seasons (1980-1983). That’s impressive stuff.

– From 1978-1984, Hendrick led the Cardinals with 122 homers, and no other Cardinal had more than 69 HR. That means Hendrick hit 53 more home runs than any other Cardinal over seven seasons. That tells us a lot about Hendricks’ value in the power department.

– Over the same seven seasons Hendrick not only led the Cardinals in home runs but was first with 782 RBIs. And he ranked second in WAR, onbase percentage, slugging percentage and OPS and was third in batting average.

– From the time Busch Stadium II opened in 1966 through Hendrick’s final season (1984) as a Cardinal Hendrick ranked second to Ted Simmons for most home runs slammed in the vast ballpark that was Death Valley for hitters. Simba launched 81, and Hendrick hit 55.

– Among Cardinal hitters that played at least 300 games at Busch II from 1966 through 1984, Hendrick was No. 1 in slugging percentage (.465), third in OPS (.808), and fourth in extra-base hits.

– Busch II was a very tough yard for power hitters. George Hendrick was Jack Clark – as in the team’s main power source – before Clark became a 1985.

– During his peak seasons as a Cardinal – 1980 through 1983 – Hendrick slugged .482, blasted 80 home runs, and drilled for 371 runs batted in. And based on adjusted OPS, Hendrick performed 30 percent above league average offensively. It was a strong four-year run.

– Also from 1980 through 1983, Hendrick had an average .845 OPS when hitting with runners in scoring position. “I don’t think you’ll find a better hitter in the National League with men on base than Hendrick,” Cards coach Red Schoendienst told reporters..

– When the Cardinals traded Hendrick to Pittsburgh before the 1985 season, the deal brought left-handed starting pitcher John Tudor to St. And Tudor, of course, is a member of the Cardinals Hall of Fame. So even in leaving, Hendrick provided exceptional value for the Cardinals.

Summary: During the expansion era, which began in 1961, Hendrick ranks eighth in WAR among St. Louis outfielders behind Jim Edmonds, Lou Brock, Ray Lankford, Curt Flood, Matt Holliday, Willie McGee and Brian Jordan. The first six names on that list have been inducted into the Cards Hall of Fame, and Brian Jordan has a chance to get there. As does Hendrick. I think Hendrick is worthy because of his individual numbers, awards and MVP votes as a Cardinal. But when Hendrick gave the Cardinals a push to go all the way in 1982, it was their first World Series championship since 1967. Hendrick was a substantial presence and talent in that unforgettable season.

BRIAN JORDAN

Overview: Full disclosure: Jordan is one of my personal favorites. Why? Because as a very young sportswriter, who covered prep sports in Baltimore, I watched Brian Jordan play baseball at Milford Mill High School and wrote about him. Just a really good man who played an entertaining, athletic and highly-skilled brand of baseball.

Jordan was gifted in two sports, starting at safety for the NFL Atlanta Falcons from 1991-1993. In two of those seasons (‘92-93) Jordan played 122 games in the outfield for the Cardinals. But in effect he couldn’t commit to a full-time baseball career because of the overlap between the two sports. But he made a choice after that, going all-in on a baseball career.

“BJ” was a Cardinal from 1992 through 1998 and had the kind of career that tends to get lost in other precious memories that fans keep in a special place. In his seven seasons Jordan batted .291 with a .339 onbase percentage and .474 slug. He had 122 doubles, 24 triples, 86 stolen bases, 84 homers and 367 RBIs.

Cardinal career notables:

– Jordan was one of the best Cardinal players of the 1990s. If we had to pick a franchise All-90s Decade Team, he would definitely be a starting outfielder along with Ray Lankford and Bernard Gilkey. For the decade, Lankford-Jordan-Gilkey ranked No. 1, No. 2 and No. 3 (respectively) for most WAR by a St. Louis outfielder in the 1990s. Yes. Only 15 STL position players have done that over the last 64 seasons. And Jordan is on that list.

– In the 1990s, Jordan ranked among the top five Cardinals – at any position – in WAR (2nd), triples (2nd), RBIs (3rd), home runs (3rd), OPS (4th), stolen bases (3rd), batting average (4th), slugging (4th), and hits (4th). And let’s talk about defense. In the 1990s, Jordan was STL’s highest-rated outfielder defensively. Including all positions, only catcher Tom Pagnozzi and shortstop Ozie Smith had a higher FanGraphs defensive rating than Jordan.

– In his seven seasons as a Cardinal, Jordan ranked second on the team to Lankford in WAR, home runs, doubles, triples, RBIs, and stolen bases … and was third in slugging. Lankford is a Cardinal Hall of Famer.

– In his seven years as a Cardinal, Jordan had the sixth-best defensive rating among MLB outfielders.

Remembering 1996: Jordan played an important role in the Cardinals’ return to the postseason for the first time since 1987. During the regular season Jordan hit .310 with a .349 OBP and .483 slug. He led the ‘96 team in batting average, doubles and RBIs and played terrific outfield defense.

That’s not all; in ‘96 Jordan batted .422 with a 1.154 OPS when batting with runners in scoring position. In RISP spots he clubbed 17 homers and cracked pitchers for 93 RBIs. The money-time hitting included a .405 average, .703 slugging percentage and a 1.116 OPS in two-out RISO scenarios.

Accordingly, Jordan finished eighth in National League Most Valuable Player Award voting in 1996.

Remembering the 1996 postseason: The Cardinals advanced to the NLCS that year. In 10 games against the Padres and Braves, Jordan batted .270 with a .514 slug, .821 OPS, two homers, five RBIs, and seven runs scored. In a three-game sweep of the Padres in the 1996 NLDS, Jordan led the way with a .333 average, .385 onbase percentage, .583 slug, and .918 OPS.

Jordan was the baseball hero for the Cardinals in Game 3 of that NLDS. The Cardinals went to San Diego in search of a three-game sweep, and had to overcome early deficits. With the game tied 5-5 in the 8th inning, the Padres had the bases loaded and a runner on second and two outs. San Diego catcher Jody Reed plastered a pitch to the right-center gap in a bid for the go-ahead (and winning?) run. The catch probability there was slim, but Jordan made a spectacular diving catch to keep the game locked up. And in the top of the 9th, Jordan launched a two-run homer off future Baseball Hall of Fame reliever Trevor Hoffman. The missile landed among the palm trees over the left-field fence.

Moving on: The Cardinals made no real effort to retain Jordan when he became a free agent after the 1998 season. He accepted a generous offer from the Braves, and it was a great fit because Jordan and family had moved to Atlanta when he played for the Falcons. For some reason Jordan was booed at Busch Stadium II when he returned in 1999 as a Brave. It made no sense and was disappointing. But BJ has been treated very well by the fans in his subsequent returns to Busch Stadium (in any capacity) through the years.

Summary: Jordan is qualified for the Cardinals Hall of Fame because of his all-around excellence in the 1990s, and his role in lifting the Cardinals to the NLCS in Tony La Russa’s first season as manager in St. Louis. I believe An All-Decade type of player belongs in the Cardinals Hall, and Jordan qualifies on that end. Jordan was a high-value performer for the Cardinals in hitting, defense and baserunning. It’s his first time as a finalist on the fan ballot. And if Jordan doesn’t make it this time, he’ll have more chances.

EDGAR RENTERIA

Overview: I’ll come out swinging here. Edgar Renteria is one of the most underrated Cardinals of the expansion era. He was a vital piece of four successful Cardinal teams that made the playoffs and won an NL pennant during his six seasons. Manager Tony La Russa thought so highly of Renteria that he called him “El Capitan.” And though shy with the media, Renteria was a strong leader in the clubhouse who pushed and helped his teammates.

OK, here’s why I believe Renteria is underrated.

– In franchise history, only three shortstops had more career FanGraphs WAR as a Cardinal than Renteria. The top three are Ozzie Smith, Marty Marion and Solly Hemus. That also makes Renteria second to The Wizard for most WAR by a Cardinals shortstop during the expansion era. And that’s not a team Hall of Famer? Goodness.

— In his six St. Louis seasons Renteria was selected for three All-Star teams, earned two Gold Gloves and two Silver Slugger trophies, and finished in the top-20 of National League MVP voting in both 2002 and 2003.

– Renteria is the only shortstop in franchise history to win both the Gold Glove award and the Silver Slugger award in two consecutive seasons. He did that in 2002-2003.

– Among shortstops that made at least 1,500 career plate appearances as a Cardinal, Renteria ranks second in OPS, home runs, stolen bases and slugging percentage and is third in hits, extra-base hits, runs batted in, runs scored, batting average and doubles. He ranks fourth among shortstops in onbase percentage

– For a three-season span, 2002-2004, Renteria was the National League’s best shortstop. I back that up with this: over the three seasons he led all NL shortstops in WAR, runs batted in, runs scored, Gold Gloves, and Silver Sluggers. And over the three seasons, Renteria and Philadelphia’s Jimmy Rollins were the only two NL shortstops to garner MVP votes in two different seasons.

– In 2003 Renteria had his best season as a major leaguer, hitting .330 with 13 home runs, 100 RBIs, and 34 stolen bases. That year tied for sixth among all major-league position players in WAR (calculated by FanGraphs.)

– In 2003 Renteria became the first Cardinals shortstop in the modern era (1900-present) to heap 100 RBIs in a season. And that year Renteria fell only six hits short of linking to the immortal Honus Wagner as the only NL shortstops to get 200 hits and 100 RBIs in a season.

– How great was Renteria’s 2003 campaign? I’m pleased to answer that. During the expansion era (1961-present) only one major-league shortstop put together this magnificent offensive profile in a season:

.330 average.
.394 OBP
.480 slug
130 OPS+
13 home runs
100 RBIs
34 steals

The shortstop’s name is Edgar Renteria. We could say that Renteria had the greatest all-around offensive season by an MLB shortstop over the last 64 seasons. Is that good?

– Two of the three-highest RBI totals in a season by a Cardinal shortstop were delivered by Renteria. He had 103 RBIs in 2003, knocked home 83 runs in 2002 ranks third.

– As mentioned, Renteria was the starting shortstop on four St. Louis postseason teams: 2000, 2001, 2002 and 2004. The ‘04 Cardinals were the NL champs. Derek Jeter was the only major-league shortstop to play in more postseason games than Renteria from 2000 through 2004. In the final six games of STL’s 2004 postseason, Renteria batted .364 with a .417 onbase percentage and .500 slug. The Cardinals were swept by Boston in the 2004 World Series and had an embarrassingly weak offense – but don’t blame Renteria, who batted .333 with a .945 OPS. In the series sweep, the Cardinals had just 24 hits in four games. Renteria, Albert Pujols and Larry Walker combined for 15 of those hits and batted .341 as a threesome. The other Cardinals had nine hits in 82 at-bats for a .109 average.

Summary: Renteria has a slam-dunk case for the Cardinals Hall of Fame. I mean, seriously. The fact that he’s not there already is regrettable. Renteria’s credentials are more than enough to warrant induction.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

Fans can view the 2025 Cardinals Hall of Fame ballot and cast their selections online starting Saturday, February 22, at cardinals.com/HOF.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: A Look At The 4 Finalists For Induction To The St. Louis Cardinals Hall Of Fame. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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BIRD WATCHING

Luken Grosvenor Baker walloped a three-run homer in Monday’s Grapefruit League victory over the Mets, but this is not why I am writing about him today. I am writing about him today because I just wanted to have a reason to put the middle name Grosvenor in there. How cool of a middle name is that? Outstanding! And I’m not being a wise guy here.

Now that I got Grosvenor in there, yes, I do want to write a little something about Baker’s home run. Not so much this specific home run – but more about Baker’s power. And how the Cardinals plan to tap into it in 2025 … if at all.

Though I wouldn’t be willing to bet more than $10 on it, I think Baker will make the big club for a reason: the need for a right-handed hitter to pinch hit against lefty relievers. And a power-hitting RH batter to DH against lefty starters.

Let’s go birdwatching …

Home Run Baker: No doubt about it, Luken is another Home Run Baker – well, minus the Hall of Fame credentials. For the kids out there, Frank “Home Run” Baker was the most feared HR hitter in the early days of baseball, leading the AL in big flies over four consecutive seasons, 1911 through 1913. But the home run wasn’t a big part of the competition back in the really olden days, which explains why Baker never cudgeled more than 12 of ‘em in a season.

Once Babe Ruth (714 home runs) took the stage to transform the sport with his barrages of long balls, Frank “Home Run” Baker moved into the background. Babe and Home Run Baker were teammates on the Yankees in 2021 and ‘22. And while Baker was still an effective hitter with good power, he couldn’t keep up with The Babe, who shattered Baker’s single–season HR record by swatting an incomprehensible 59 round trippers in 1921.

“I hope Babe lives to hit one-hundred homers in a season. I wish him all the luck in the world. He has everybody else, including myself, hopelessly outclassed,” the gracious Baker told a reporter after the ‘21 season. Baker finished his big-league career with 96 home runs. OK, this history lesson is over.

Luken Baker’s situation going into 2025: He has immense power and does a good job of drawing walks. He’s one of the most intriguing Cardinals in camp and Cards fans have wanted to see more of him. Despite his prodigious power in the minors, Baker has received limited opportunities to prove himself in the major leagues – with only 54 games and 148 plate appearances over the past two seasons.

It’s frustrating because the Cardinals ranked 22nd in MLB in runs scored across 2023-2024. And last season the Redbirds ranked 11th among the 15 National League teams in slugging, and were 12th in home runs. Not only that, St. Louis struggled against left-handed pitching last season, producing at a rate that was nine percent below the league average offensively. Baker, who bats from the right side, has a history of bludgeoning pitches served by lefties. The DH was installed in the NL in 2023, and when we factor that in, there wasn’t a good reason to keep Baker at Triple A Memphis for most of the time.

The story in Memphis: I’m focusing on his hitting at the Triple A level, because that’s been his primary residence over the past three seasons. Baker needed time to adjust to Triple A pitching in 2022, but still launched 21 homers. But the 2023 and 2024 seasons were Home Run Baker time. Over the past two seasons, this is the accounting of all the damage he did against Triple A pitching:

• 832 plate appearances, 690 at-bats
• .278 average
• .388 onbase percentage
• .619 slug percentage
• 1.007 OPS
• 65 homers
• 40 doubles
• 15% walk rate
• 22% strikeout rate (reasonable)
• 150 wRC+, which was 50% above league average offensively.

Baker also smashed left-handed pitching with impressive authority.

Big-league debut season, 2023: Baker, 26, was used sporadically, riding the shuttle between Memphis and St. Louis. He played four games for the Cardinals in June, three in July, nine in August and 17 during the final month. Baker’s numbers were poor in ‘23; he batted .198 with a .341 slug, .645 OPS and a 28.3 percent strikeout rate. I can’t judge Baker harshly because he just didn’t get much of a chance. True, he did have 14 starts in the final month, and didn’t do much with them. And Baker didn’t show much home-run muscle against lefties. But it was his first time in the majors, and some hitters need time to adjust, get settled and develop confidence. There was a sign of progress late in the campaign, with Baker cultivating a 21 percent walk rate (with a reduced strikeout rate) over his last 16 games of ‘23.

Baker’s confusing 2024. What were the Cardinals doing? I ask because he was largely neglected by the Cardinals. Let’s see here. The Cardinals had a terrible offense last season. They were short on power, well below average against lefties, and loaded with too many left-handed hitters. In other words, the situation called for a right-handed batter who could recharge the attack. Baker is limited defensively at first base, but he profiles as an option at DH against left-handed starting pitchers.

STL’s right-handed hitters slotted at DH against lefties collectively performed above average offensively. That group of RH batters included Baker, but he was given only 12 plate appearances against lefties as a DH. Baker made the most of the minimal opportunity, batting .300 with a homer, double, three RBIs, two walks and an excellent 1.217 OPS. Now, sure, that’s a small sample. But that’s also the point: why was the sample size so tiny? That isn’t on Baker; he should have seen a lot more action in the speciality role. But manager Oli Marmol went with other options.

And this wasn’t entirely on Marmol, either. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak is in charge of making roster decisions, and Baker wasn’t promoted to the majors until Aug. 21. That’s absurd. And it just reaffirmed an opinion: the Mozeliak-led front office makes strange decisions, and isn’t wise about using personnel.

At Memphis last season Baker had a 15 percent walk rate, slammed 35 homers, and slugged .535. And he punished left-handed pitching. I know this much: the Cardinals should have put him to work sooner than Aug. 21. Would Baker more valuable if he was a more nimble and athletic dude that has more speed an the ability to play multiple positions? Of course. But it’s also important to accept him for what he is, and give him a more extensive look. Play to Baker’s strength. And he has a lot of strength.

Baker had ONLY 22 plate appearances vs. left-handed pitching last season. Sad. Silly. And here’s what Baker did with those 22 plate appearances: .278 average, .364 onbase percentage, .722 slug, 1.086 OPS. Subtracting his three walks, Baker hit two homers and a double and drove in seven runners in 18 at-bats. Statistically, Baker was the Cards’ best hitter against left-handed pitching last season.

And again, I don’t want to hear about how small sample sizes are meaningless. Usually I would agree – but not in this particular case. Because the sample size should have been more comprehensive, but evidently the Cardinals weren’t smart enough to figure that out. And Baker’s improved plate discipline gives him more value as a hitter. And the Cardinals apparently overlooked that as well.

Know thy player, Cardinals: Baker is more fearsome when facing left-handed pitching, but he’s more than held his own against righthanders over the last two seasons in Triple A. I just wanted to make sure to take note of that. But in reality, Baker will be locked into his most dangerous form against lefties. That’s pretty obvious, right?

Well, not to the Cardinals. In his late-season callup last summer, Baker actually had more plate appearances vs. righties (27) than lefties (22). And against the right-handers he batted .091 with a .356 OPS and struck out 30 percent of the time. But when the Cardinals had a chance to start Baker against left-handed pitching while he was up in the bigs last season he started only eight games. Eight! And only four of those eight starts were made against a left-handed starting pitcher.

Other teams noticed Baker: Cards opponents have noticed his patience and damage against left-handed arms. That’s why Mozeliak received multiple calls from other front offices this past offseason about Baker’s availability in a trade. They obviously viewed him as a platoon candidate to take on left-handed pitching. The Cardinals chose to keep him. Good. But will they use him at the major-league level in 2025? The Cardinals may see Baker as a one-dimensional platoon bat. But so do other teams. The difference? The other teams appreciate what Baker can bring to a platoon scenario. The Cardinals do not.

The conclusion: this is supposed to be a “runway” season for players to have an expanded opportunity. Baker isn’t exactly a kid; he’ll be 28 next month. But if your organization is sincere about trying to find out as much as they can about players that don’t have a lot of major-league experience, Baker certainly qualifies for that group. I think we’ll see him with the Cardinals this season, and he has a chance to make it out of camp with a spot on the 26-man roster. The Cardinals need his right-handed swing off the bench, and he looms as a platoon candidate at DH. Will 2025 be the season of Baker’s MLB breakthrough? All I can say is “maybe.” I don’t trust the process or the decision making. But I would think it’s now or never for the Cardinals to give Baker a more legitimate chance to establish himself in the big leagues. And if they don’t, some other team will. And we know how that usually works out when the Cardinals cut ties with a player that other teams appreciate more than they do. He may not be the second coming of Baseball Hall of Famer Frank “Home Run” Baker. And Luken may wash out at the big-league level. That’s the problem: we just don’t know enough about him. But can we at least see what Luken Grosvenor Baker can do before it’s too late?

Thanks for reading …

–B

I was inducted into the Missouri Hall of Fame in 2023 and have been writing and talking about St. Louis sports since 1985.

Please check out my YouTube channel for video commentary and analyses. Here’s the easy link for you and please subscribe. Thanks in advance.

You can listen to me regularly on KMOX, and check out the Gashouse Gang video stream that airs at noon St. Louis time Monday through Friday and is available at all times after the initial recording. The “gang” includes Tom Ackerman, Matt Pauley, Kevin Wheeler and yours truly.

The Seeing Red podcast – featuring Will Leitch (and Miklasz) – is recorded on Mondays and is available to download on Apple, Spotify or your preferred podcast service.

The post Bernie’s Bird Watching: We’re Lookin’ At Luken Baker. But Will The Cardinals See Him? appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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BIRD WATCHING

It’s Monday and a brand new week for hobbyists to resume their springtime birdwatching with the most intriguing Redbirds in the Jupiter springtime habitat.

Today my short-take focus is on JJ Wetherholt, the 7th overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft. The infielder is the organization’s top hitting prospect and Baseball America’s No. 25 prospect in the majors. Baseball Prospectus has him even higher as the No. 13 overall MLB prospect going into 2025. Which isn’t bad for a dude with only 126 minor-league plate appearances.

Opening statement on Wetherholt: Wow.

Wetherholt made his first Grapefruit League start as a Cardinal Sunday against the Astros and promptly banged a three-run homer clocked at 100.6 miles per hour. Oh, and he was in the lineup at shortstop and started two double plays. It was another highlight of a debut that included two hits and two runs scored.

The inside-out swing: Wetherholt’s smooth left-handed swing is pleasing to the eye. Photogenic. You just want to watch him hit. Sorry for the cliche, but he’s a natural-born hitter.

The prospect scouts tell us Wetherholt must pull the ball more often to generate more power – which isn’t wrong. OK, but some swings are just beautiful and don’t require modification. He’s an extremely confident and self aware individual who has an advanced feel and instinct for hitting. You don’t need coaches watching over him trying to “fix” him. It’s good and necessary to make tweaks – part of the game and all of that – but save the overhaul for a young hitter who needs it. Jordan Walker is the primary example.

Wetherholt has the classic inside-out swing, which doesn’t produce high-percentage rates for pulling the ball. But he hits. Swings don’t come in a one-size-fits-all box.

Wade Boggs, a left-handed batter, built a Hall of Fame career with an inside-out swing that produced a stream of hits to the opposite field or middle. We’ve seen plenty of inside-out swings generate wondrous numbers. Off the top level of my head, I think of Tony Gwynn, Joe Mauer, Rod Carew, Mike Trout, Derek Jeter, Manny Machado and Ichiro. There are many, many more – but I just wanted to cite a few examples.

No, I’m not suggesting Wetherholt will become a Hall of Famer. I don’t see him having 3,101 hits in a Boggs-like career. Gee, I’m more restrained than that. I wouldn’t do something so outlandish until (1) Wetherholt appears in the bigs for the first time and (2) has an impressive first week at the plate. At that point I shall promptly declare that he’s better than Boggs. And from there, I will quickly evolve into “Wetherholt is Tony Gwynn with more power.” Probably not. But I’m just trying to have some fun here, so roll with me.

It’s OK to get excited. It’s good to get excited. Go crazy, folks. No need to apologize for getting fired up about Wetherholt’s talent, his gift for hitting, and long-term potential. There are legitimate reasons to let the positive feelings flow when thinking about what Wetherholt can do for the Cardinals. And when certain prospects come along that just have That Look, part of the fun is getting overly excited … and carried away. Careers are sculpted over many years, and many a phenom has come up short.

That said, having abundant enthusiasm over Wetherholt this spring isn’t like getting charged up over, say, John Nogowski or Justin Williams. The Cardinals have had many a player pass through spring training and spark temporary excitement. But there’s nothing temporary about Wetherholt except his stay in the 2025 major-league camp. But he’ll be making his way to St. Louis in short time.

Haven’t we overhyped St. Louis prospects before? Yes, and so does every MLB team, its fans, and the media that covers the sport. I know this is a more recent Cardinals tradition. I won’t review them all, because we’ve been there and done that over and over again. So I’ll go with a more recent example. I know that former No. 1 draft choice Dylan Carlson was a source of excitement going into 2021 spring training. Carlson had been summoned by the big club late in the 2020 season, and didn’t do much in his first 35 big-league games. But in the wild-card series against San Diego, Carlson announced himself by hitting .333 with a .571 onbase percentage and 1.016 OPS. He had a good 2021 – and really took off after the All-Star break – but we didn’t know something about Carlson that we later recognized in hindsight: he lacked confidence and tended to spiral as soon as he went into a downturn.

Carlson also had a difficult time keeping his weight and strength up, and that unplugged his power. Carlson never slugged higher than .437 after 2021, and by the time he was traded by the Cardinals last summer, his hard hit-rate was 26 percent – down from his career high of 43% in 2020.

By contrast, Wetherholt will be 23 by the end of the 2025 season. He was drafted after starring in three seasons of college ball at West Virginia. Carlson was drafted out of high school and didn’t turn 23 until his third major-league season. When we compare the two players, Wetherholt had more time to develop and physically mature than Carlson was at a similar age.

Wetherholt’s confidence won’t be an issue. I laughed this morning when I saw quotes and comments that told us Wetherholt hasn’t looked nervous in his first big-league camp? This is so funny. Why the heck would Wetherholt be nervous? He hasn’t been a Cardinal for long, but by now we should have a really good understanding of Wetherholt’s persona. Geez, you could see it as soon as he got drafted and shook hands with commissioner Rob Manfred. You could see it in his first round of televised interviews. This isn’t some guy who gets overwhelmed and thinks, “I shouldn’t be here.” This isn’t some bumpkin who shares space with big-league teammates for the first time and gets overwhelmed. He is the EXACT OPPOSITE of that. He has competitive arrogance at the plate in a good way. He goes into the box with a bold mindset. He thinks he’ll win every battle against any pitcher in every at-bat.

In the fifth inning of Sunday’s game vs. Houston, Wetherholt had a swing and miss. That didn’t look great. This frustrated him. Reporters asked: what were you thinking after that?

“Flush it, stick to my approach, get ready for a fastball,” Wetherholt said.

Home run.

“I put a good swing on it,” JJ said.

Yes. Confidence.

Here’s something else to add to his swagger index: “JJ” is his name, and I don’t know what it stands for … and I don’t really care. Just call him JJ. At some point we won’t have to worry about saying his last name,

We know something else about Wetherholt: he just excels at the art of hitting. As a sophomore at West Virginia, JJ hit .449 in 55 games to lead the nation in hitting. He followed by hitting .331 with a .472 onbase percentage and .589 slugging percentage as a junior. And in his professional debut at high Class A Palm Beach last summer. He cranked a 90th percentile exit velocity of 105.3 mph and had a fantastic 55% hard-hit rate.

The report from Baseball America: “Wetherholt entered pro ball as an advanced hitter with an adjustable, left handed swing geared for stinging line drives and punishing mistakes in the zone. He is adept at attacking all pitch types, producing near-identical underlying metrics against fastballs and breaking pitches. Wetherholt rarely expands the zone and should walk at a high rate in the majors. Power is not the primary focus of Wetherholt’s approach, but he shows above-average impact and the ability to elevate the ball consistently, portending mid-20s home run power at peak.”

Wetherholt’s only problem along the way were some hamstring issues during his stay with the Mountaineers that caused him to miss time. Then again, that’s why the Cardinals were able to take his name off the board with the seventh pick. And I don’t see why the hammy problem will linger.

The report from Keith Law of The Athletic: “Wetherholt might have gone No. 1 in last year’s draft had he had a full, healthy spring for West Virginia, but a hamstring injury limited him to 36 games for the Mountaineers, just 27 of them in the field, so he ended up going No. 7 to the Cardinals — and that looks like a steal for St. Louis. Wetherholt had one of the best swings in the draft class and a long track record of hitting for average and high contact rates … he’s not very physical, but makes plenty of hard contact thanks to a short, efficient swing that gets the most from his lower half when his lower half is intact.”

There’s a lot of flair and charisma in Wetherholt’s personality. Let us declare the obvious: The St. Louis Cardinals have a shortage of star power among position players. A distinguished procession of All-Star caliber hitters or all-world defenders has come and gone. The names include Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina, Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen, Matt Holliday, the sadly underrated Edgar Renteria, the peak-form Matt Carpenter, and Paul Goldschmidt. Nolan Arenado is still here with his Hall of Fame resume, and he’s looking to bounce back after his mediocre 2024 at the plate.

Masyn Winn is a star in the making. Cardinal fans have already taken to him, and for good reason. And Winn figures to only get better – and more popular. Winn looks like a ballplayer. Wetherholt looks like a ballplayer.

When I say that someone looks like a ballplayer, here’s what I mean: you just know. Jim Edmonds was like that. It wasn’t just talent; Edmonds gave the fans a helluva show. The young Bryce Harper was like that, too. And still is.

Given the fairly low level of magnetism within the current collection of St. Louis position players, Wetherholt will be good for business. He’ll give the fans a reason to watch. And he’ll give the fans hope at a time when hope is way down.

Sunday night, I playfully wrote this to my Seeing Red podcast partner Will Leitch: “JJ Wetherholt will save the franchise from defeat and despair.”

What position will Wetherholt play? Hard to say. As usual, the St. Louis front office has built another positional logjam. With Arenado here – and possibly through 2027 if he isn’t traded – the Cardinals have too many infielders and not enough playing time to go around. And Wetherholt is another left-handed bat for a team that has too many left-handed at-bats. Wetherholt was a shortstop in college ball. Needless to say, the Cardinals have Winn at shortstop so that spot is taken. Some of the prospect evaluators believe Wetherholt will end up at second base; others see him eventually taking over at third. One suggestion that’s making the rounds is eventually moving Wetherholt to center field. But that’s not in the plans for 2025. It will be up to incoming president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom to solve this perennial puzzle.

What’s the major-league timetable? As noted, Wetherholt won’t make the big-club roster coming out of Florida, but I don’t think minor-league pitchers will halt his progress in a way that keeps JJ in the minors for a long period of time. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Wetherholt arrive in St. Louis late this season – much like Winn did in 2023 – to get acclimated to the majors for a full 2026 season.

No matter how we look at this, JJ is on the way.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

I was inducted into the Missouri Hall of Fame in 2023 and have been writing and talking about St. Louis sports since 1985.

Please check out my YouTube channel for video commentary and analyses. Here’s the easy link for you and please subscribe. Thanks in advance.

You can listen to me regularly on KMOX, and check out the Gashouse Gang video stream that airs at noon St. Louis time Monday through Friday and is available at all times after the initial recording. The “gang” includes Tom Ackerman, Matt Pauley, Kevin Wheeler and yours truly.

The Seeing Red podcast – featuring Will Leitch (and Miklasz) – is recorded on Mondays and is available to download on Apple, Spotify or your preferred podcast service.

Thanks for your support.

The post Bernie’s Bird Watching: Why, Hello There J.J. Wetherholt! Great To See Ya! appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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I don’t want to exaggerate …

OK, I’ll exaggerate.

In reading and listening to the coverage of the Four Nations Face-Off Tournament, I was fascinated by the sweeping criticism of Team Canada goaltender Jordan Binnington.

It was so widespread and withering, I had to ask myself a question: who is the most unpopular person in Canada right now?

Binnington – or the current president of the United States?

I don’t think it was Binnington … but it might have been close.

From a national standpoint, the goaltending in Canada is a little thin. It’s why Binnington got the call to start for the Canadians in this wonderfully exciting and popular tournament that pitted Canada vs. the U.S. in the championship game.

Our Canadian friends were sweating maple syrup. Binnington had allowed a couple of softies along the way, and there was biting criticism of his performance after a 3-1 loss to the U.S. on Feb. 15.

In the aftermath of that event – which included Binnington getting badly outplayed by U.S. goaltender Connor Hellebuyck – I expected to hear something about Binnington being put on an airplane with a ticket home to St. Louis.

Sure, Binnington would get a warm welcome home by Blues fans. Hey, there’s always going to be memories of 2019 to soften our hearts. Binnington was slumping as he headed to the Four Nations competition, having gone 4-5-1 with an .889 save percentage in his previous 10 games for the Blues. For the season, Binner’s .896 save percentage ranked 38th among 51 NHL goaltenders that had protected the net for at least 1,000 minutes of game action. And his deeper metrics were terrible.

Oh, Canada! Where was young Logan Thompson and his glistening 24-2-5 record for the Washington Capitals? Where was Colorado goaltender MacKenzie Blackwood and his .922 save percentage? Adin Hill was injured earlier this season, but he was back in the Vegas lineup and ready to go for duty in The Four Nations showdown. Hill was magnificent in net when the Golden Knights rushed to the Stanley Cup in 2023, and was 12-6 with a .932 save percentage in two postseasons with the franchise.

Team Canada Coach Jon Cooper didn’t buckle when the media repeatedly hounded him for his logic behind starting Binnington.

“Pedigree,” Cooper said in one of his answers. “Winning pedigree.”

Cooper referenced the 2019 Stanley Cup run numerous times, and I believe we still recall what happened. I’m kidding. For a half-century of NHL hockey, the Blues had failed to win a Stanley Cup. And in a Kurt Warner II type of story, Binnington arrived from a poor place on the organizational depth chart – also known as “oblivion” – and took care of this desperate mission.

Want the Stanley Cup?

Can’t get the Stanley Cup?

Well, in Game 7 of the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs, Binnington all but snatched it by himself and put the sacred chalice on the team charter for the joyful ride home to The Lou.

Since the NHL expanded to a 16-team postseason format for the 1979-1980 season, the only two rookie goaltenders to lead their teams to a Stanley Cup and get credit for at least 10 postseason wins were Binnington in ‘19 and Pittsburgh’s Matt Murray in 2016.

Both had identical .943 save percentages. Binnington had 16 postseason wins in 2019, which was one more than Murray’s total three years earlier.

Binnington’s epic performance in Game 7 at Boston, was remarkable. He was a thief in the first period, demoralizing the Bruins at every turn, making ridiculous saves to frustrate the home team. The rest of the Blues took it from there, opening a 2-0 lead through one period. The Blues made Boston mad and sad with his sensational acrobatics in a 4-1 victory.

These recollections are important because the events of the 2019 Stanley Cup playoffs directly formed Cooper’s steadfast faith in Binnington … and led to Thursday’s triumph by Canada … and Stanley Cup Game 7 and the 2025 Four Nations championships were won in the same arena in Boston … by the same goaltender … Binnington.

As you know by now, Cooper’s confidence in Binnington was on the money, and Binnington beat the U.S. in Thursday’s championship by denying everything the Americans slapped, shoved and wristed at him.

Overall, Binnington rejected 31 of 33 shots that infiltrated his zone, the shots coming at him like flicks of flames. And because of that Canada emerged from overtime with a 3-2 victory that turned the anti-Binner trashing into pro-Binner tributes.

This wasn’t a Game 7. But Thursday’s winner-take-all showdown, which was as pressure-packed and huge as any Game 7.

If we add Binnington’s Game 7 in Boston with his hockey-hero performance in the Four Nations final, this is what we have: 66 shots on goal, 63 stops, and a .955 save percentage.

Maybe Binnington should wear No. 33.

The Bruins had 33 shots on goal in Game 7.

Team USA put 33 shots on goal against him Thursday night.

In Game 7 in 2019, Binnington kept the Bruins off the board for the first 57 minutes and nine seconds of the 60-minute game.

Thursday night, Binnington kept the U.S. off the board for the final 35 minutes and 49 seconds.

“Binner’s a winner and that’s ultimately what it is,” the overtime goal scorer Connor McDavid said, per NHL.com. “He’s won a big game in this building before in 2019. He’s played in big moments. The moment doesn’t get to him. He probably made three or four all-world saves early in overtime to allow us to score the goal. All credit to him, honestly. Hopefully some of those haters will back off him because, honestly, he played great.”

Binnington was truly spectacular in overtime.

Without Binnington doing his how-did-he-stop-that routine, McDavid and teammates wouldn’t have had the opportunity to celebrate the golden goal – the biggest by a Canadian in men’s international play since Sidney Crosby beat Team USA in overtime to win the gold in the 2010 Vancouver Olympics.

Auston Matthews, the Arizona native, is a three-time NHL scoring champion winner of the 2022 NHL Hart Trophy as league MVP. Including the postseason Matthews already has scored 411 times in eight-plus seasons. The Toronto Maple Leafs’ star centerman and team captain is still only 27 years old.

Matthews is at the top of his game. He had Binnington lined up three times in overtime. A close-range target, in the extreme-danger zone.

Binnington rejected three chances that would have made Matthews and Team USA winners on a glorious night of hockey. And when Brady Tkachuk swooped in on a rebound, Binnington made the shape-shifter move and repelled the shot with his left skate.

There were at least two other “Grade A” American shots that could have gone in, and no one would have blamed Binnington for being less than perfect in those moments. But he was perfect. Again. And all of Canada could breathe.

Team Canada regrouped from these scares during the siege on Binnington’s net. McDavid scored the goal after Binnington refused to break and allow Matthews or any other yankee get past him to produce a dramatically different outcome. Binnington preserved Canada’s historical dominance over Team USA.

“When it came to overtime, when we needed him most, make the saves he was supposed to, and maybe make a few that you’re not, he saved his best for last,” Cooper said. That’s what winners do, and there wasn’t a chance I was not going to back the winner.”

The great Sidney Crosby added: “I don’t think I have enough words, to be honest with you. He was incredible. So much poise.”

Binnington is the Blues’ all-time leader in wins by a goaltender. And he’s the only goaltender in franchise history to raise the Stanley Cup. He’s had his ups and downs. But if you put a good team around Binnington and trust him in the big spots that make other goaltenders shake and teeter, he’ll take care of the rest.

We saw it in Boston on June 12, 2019 when he did it for the Blues and their fans. We saw it in Boston on February 20, 2025 when he did it for Canada. And I hope we can see him get the chance to do it again for St. Louis one day.

Thanks for reading … and have a great weekend.

–Bernie

The post Bernie: Under Intense Pressure, Jordan Binnington Goes Into Boston For Another Huge Game. And Wins Again. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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BIRD WATCHING

I’m tracking the Cardinals from afar this spring, with powerful and special binoculars that allow me to observe the Redbirds in their spring habitat from my home, 1,100 miles away.

Well, no, I can’t actually see them. But my purpose with the Bird Watching series is to monitor developments – and ponder some key questions – as the Cardinals prep for the real baseball that begins March 27.

In my first installment, I wrote about the wisdom of batting Masyn Winn at leadoff.

TODAY: WILLSON CONTRERAS ON THE MOVE

The Situation: After compiling 81 percent of his career plate appearances as a catcher since coming to the majors in 2016, Contreras and the Cardinals agreed it made sense to shift him to first base in 2025. During his career, Contreras has logged 6,213 regular-season innings and catcher and played only 51 innings at first base. Is this a good idea?

The Objective: Replacing the departed first baseman Paul Goldschmidt with Contreras was a surprise; there were probably a few gasps out there. But the plan has merit. Contreras has been STL’s best hitter in his two seasons with the team, performing 33 percent above league average offensively per wRC+.

And this was nothing new. Using only the plate appearances he had while doing the hard and bruising work as a catcher – sorry, but I’m not interested in irrelevant DH at-bats – Contreras has led major-league catchers in slugging percentage, OPS, and wRC+ since 2016. And he’s second in onbase percentage over that time. As a Cardinal, Contreras generated a 148 wRC+ on days he wore the catching gear. That metric – which was 48 percent above league average offensively – made him the best-hitting catcher in the majors among those who had at least 550 plate appearances from the position since the start of 2023.

Additional Motive: Contreras was getting banged up as a catcher. Though one of the injuries he endured last season had nothing to do with catching – he got struck on the hand by a pitch while batting – Contreras averaged 69.5 starts at catcher over the last two seasons. That ranked 29th at the position. Contreras was utilized at DH an average of 31.5 games over the past two years.

The demands of catching are toilsome, and Contreras wasn’t in the lineup as often as the Cardinals wanted him to be in 2023-2024. First base isn’t an easy-breezy spot – there’s a lot of activity and responsibility – but with some luck Contreras will avoid calamity. But something had to change. Over the past two seasons Contreras ranked 167th among big-league hitters in plate appearances. He stepped into the batter’s box fewer times than Lars Nootbaar and Nolan Gorman. Even old friend Paul DeJong has been at the plate more often than Contreras over the last two seasons. So has Isiah Kiner–Falefa. And Connor Joe. And Adolis Garcia. (I’ll stop now.)

The Potential Upside: By moving Contreras to first base, the Cardinals should (A) upgrade the grade of offense they received from Goldschmidt, who had the worst hitting performance of his career in 2024, and (B) open up the catcher position to give an expanded opportunity to young Ivan Herrera. That’s potentially important. Herrera was the second-best hitter on the team last season among Cardinals that had at least 250 plate appearances. He has strong upside. The only question is manager Oli Marmol, who seems to prefer Pedro Pages as the catcher. I suppose Herrera can DH against lefties, but that depends on Marmol’s desire to prioritize defense over offense when he makes choices at center field and catcher. But when Tommy Pham and Ty France have twirled a bat more often than Contreras over the last two seasons, something ain’t right. The Cardinals are trying to keep Contreras healthier and busier .

The Potential Downside: No positional move comes with a guarantee that everything will be smooth, seamless and a stress-free experience.

+ Paul Goldschmidt set a high standard for his defensive work at first base. He’s won four Gold Gloves (one with STL) during his career. In his six seasons as a Cardinal, Goldy ranked fourth in both defensive runs and Outs Above Average among first basemen who handled at least 2,500 innings. Goldschmidt was agile, instinctive, fundamentally crisp and an accurate thrower. Contreras won’t be as slick as Goldy, but that shouldn’t be held against him.

+ I don’t expect Contreras to be awful at first base, but the move will probably require patience. He has minimal experience there, and there is much to learn in a short time. Willson’s hard work with acclaimed teacher Jose Oquendo should speed up the educational process. Hopefully Contreras will adapt without struggling too much.

What Does History Tell Us? A lot, actually. Other catchers have moved to first base and distinguished themselves defensively; two such examples are Joe Mauer and Carlos Santana. But there’s more.

+ As Minnesota’s primary first baseman from 2014 through 2018, the future Hall of Famer was credited with 21 defensive runs saved at 1B. More impressively, Mauer was MLB’s highest-rated first baseman with 22 Outs Above Average from 2014-2018. That’s impressive range for a longtime catcher.

+ And how about Santana? He’s a marvel, having won a Gold Glove for his defensive work – at age 38! – last season. Since 2015, among the 36 first basemen that have played at least 3,000 innings, Santana ranks sixth in defensive runs saved and is second Outs Above Average. Fantastic work. Buster Posey was slightly below average at first base after transferring from catcher, and no one cared. Salvador Perez has been solid in his 627 career innings at first base, and hasn’t made a full-time conversion – but started a career-high 44 games there last season.

+ Catchers on the move is nothing new. Craig Biggio switched from catcher to second base, won four Gold Gloves, and was inducted into the Cooperstown Hall of Fame. Dale Murphy was relocated from catcher to center field and won two MVP awards and five Gold Gloves. Brian Downing moved from catcher to left field and then became a swell DH. Johnny Bench – one of the best-ever catchers in MLB – was redirected to third base late in his career, and his defense was abysmal. Carlton Fisk was used in left field by the White Sox in 1986 and the experiment didn’t last long.

+ Transferring catchers has happened a few times in St. Louis. The most famous example was Joe Torre. He was the Cards’ starting catcher in 1969, and then split the 1970 season at catcher and third base. Red Schoendienst moved Torre to third base (161 games!) In 1971. That season Torre won a batting title (.363) and won the NL MVP. As time went on, Torre gradually shifted to first base. Looking back on his career, Torre said that his many years of catching wore him down and left him exhausted. Playing third or first rejuvenated him. Though he still held the primary catching job, the Cardinals used the future Hall of Famer Simba 63 times at first base and he did some roaming in left field. The Cardinals moved Todd Zeile from catcher to third base but also used him at first base. Zeile played a long time in the majors (16 seasons) and manned the corner infield spots for several teams. And Eli Marrero, a speedy catcher, was turned into a multi-positional player by Tony La Russa. Marrero played first base, some third base, and was utilized at all three outfield spots. The great Yadier Molina had some spot duty (111 innings) at first base.

Does Contreras Lose Value By Moving To 1B? This is a theory espoused many times through the years, and I don’t disagree with it because it’s true. (But there are exceptions.) The catcher’s spot is the least successful position – offensively – among the eight positions. Over the past three seasons, MLB catchers collectively performed 10 percent below league average offensively via wRC+. That was the lowest adjusted runs created rate by any position group. So if you have a starting catcher with elite hitting ability – which is hard to find – it makes him more valuable.

Contreras is a profound example of this. As mentioned, the catcher position generated offense that was 10 percent below average offensively (per wRC+) from 2022 through 2024. But over the same three seasons, Contreras had a 147 wRC+ when used as a catcher – making him 47 percent above league average. The Cardinals could maintain a good portion of that offense if Herrera catches a lot of games, but Marmol may have other plans in mind.

However: this isn’t as simple as it seems. The offense provided by a good/great hitting catcher loses value when he doesn’t play as often. Contreras had a career-high 1,110 innings at catcher for the 2018 Cubs. Since then, his most innings-caught in a season was 936 in 2021. Over the past three seasons Contreras has averaged 70 starts at 606 innings behind the plate. And over the last three seasons, Contreras ranked 55th out of 64 catchers (minimum 1,000 innings) in the pitch-framing metric.

The Conclusion: Contreras is a bat-first player. And the overall offense collectively produced by MLB first basemen over the past three seasons – 10 percent above league average – isn’t anything special. And Contreras’ impact with the bat will likely give the Cardinals one of the best-hitting first basemen in the majors.

If Contreras has a wRC+ that’s 40 percent above league average next season — which would be in his established range — it would represent a 28% improvement over what the Cardinals received offensively at first base in 2024. And it doesn’t matter what Goldschmidt might do with 81 games at Yankee Stadium; there was zero chance of him being back with the Cardinals. You may second-guess the decision if you’d like, but I’ll decline to join in. All that interests me now is how Contreras will do at his new position.

Contreras turns 33 in May, and you never know when the aging curve will hit a player. The ZiPS forecast for 2025 has Contreras at 17 percent above league average offensively, and that wouldn’t be what the Cardinals are expecting. Contreras has “bulked up” for 2025, but it’s unclear if the weight training will translate into increased power. The 162-game schedule will show us.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

Please check out my YouTube channel for video commentary and analyses. Here’s the easy link for you and please subscribe. Thanks in advance.

You can listen to me regularly on KMOX, and check out the Gashouse Gang video stream that airs at noon St. Louis time from Monday through Friday and is available at all times after the initial recording. The “gang” includes Tom Ackerman, Matt Pauley, Kevin Wheeler and yours truly.

The Seeing Red podcast – featuring Will Leitch (and Miklasz) – is recorded on Mondays and is available to download on Apple, Spotify or your preferred podcast service.

The post Bernie’s Bird Watching: Willson Contreras, First Baseman? appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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Welcome to the Bird Watching

With this column, I’m beginning a series of pieces that will look at some important areas of 2025 Cardinals and the questions that come with them.

That includes position battles, decisions to be made by manager Oli Marmol about the lineup, playing time, defensive alignments, the starting rotation and bullpen assignments.

One of the most enjoyable aspects of spring training is having a chance to monitor a team as it evolves along the itinerary that leads to the regular season. I’ll be looking at camp surprises, camp disappointments, and all things in between.

FIRST UP: THE LEADOFF SPOT

The Question: Should Marmol go with Masyn Winn at the top of his lineup again in 2025? spot again this season?

1. Winn was a dynamic rookie in 2024: He played exceptional defense to earn a prestigious Fielding Bible Award as the top defensive shortstop in the majors. Winn also put up solid numbers that were impressive considering his age (22) and inexperience. In 637 plate appearances overall, Winn batted .267 with a .314 onbase rate and .416 slugging percentage. He stung pitches for 32 doubles, five triples and 15 home runs. Based on adjusted OPS, Winn performed two percent above the league average offensively. He swiped 11 bases but got caught six times for a poor 68.7 percent success rate that he’s working hard to improve in 2025.

2. Something you may not know: Historically, Winn had one of the best seasons in Cardinals franchise history by a rookie position player age 22 or younger. Using the Baseball Reference version of Wins Above Replacement, Winn’s 4.9 bWAR was topped only by Albert Pujols (2001) and Stan Musial (1942) among Cardinal rooks no older than 22. Rogers Hornsby also had 4.9 bWAR. When your rookie season qualifies to be put in a group with Pujols, Musial and Hornsby, that’s a mighty fine way to launch a career.

3. Winn’s performance batting leadoff in 2024: last season Winn’s poor .290 onbase percentage atop Marmol’s lineup ranked 29th among the 30 big-league hitters that had at least 250 plate appearances at the leadoff spot. And his 5.5% walk rate was 27th. Winn was given an extensive opportunity as the leadoff man – 470 plate appearances – but didn’t reach base often enough. And his aggressive plate approach and low walk rate were significant factors.

As a point of reference, the overall MLB onbase percentage for leadoff men in 2024 was .327 – meaning that Winn finished 37 points below the league standard. As a result, the Cardinals ranked 29th among the 30 MLB teams with a leadoff OBP of .292. That was also the worst leadoff OBP by a Cardinals team during Bill DeWitt Jr.’s 29 seasons as franchise chairman.

4. An issue that shouldn’t be minimized: Last season the Cardinals had a .306 onbase percentage (collectively) from their top two hitters in the lineup. Winn had the most plate appearances batting first, and Alec Burleson had the most PA batting second. The .306 OBP from the top two spots ranked 27th among the 30 teams. Here’s why that matters: Last season, STL’s block of 3-4-5 hitters in the lineup had the fourth-lowest total of plate appearances in the majors with runners in scoring position. (And also had the fourth-lowest total of PA when hitting with men on base.) As a team the Cardinals were terrible at hitting with runners in scoring position in ’24, but that’s irrelevant in the discussion of choosing a leadoff man. Even if your team is awful at plating runners who are on base or in position to score, you still need your first two batters to get on base at an above-average rate to create opportunities. What happens after that is up to the middle-lineup hitters.

5. A statistic that I find interesting: What I’m about to show you is far from ideal. And I would even say that it’s flawed, because a leadoff hitter can’t score all by himself unless he homers. And so if a leadoff man gets on base, a teammate will have to drive him home. Winn can do his job by reaching base, and then it’s up to other hitters to step and deliver the run. And if hitters strand Winn on base, that isn’t his fault. And the St. Louis pitchers have a substantial impact on the game result.

That said, here’s a look at how the Cardinals did – wins and losses – when Winn batted leadoff in 2024. It’s based on how many runs he scored in a game. But my point is, the more a leadoff man reaches safely, the more opportunities he’ll have to score runs. OK. Now then …

– When Winn didn’t score a run: 50 times, and a 20-30 record.

– When he scored exactly one run: 35 times, and a 22-13 record.

– When Winn scored two or more runs: 17 times, and a 14-3 record.

6. Hold on! Upon further review, this is a more revealing statistic: What was STL’s record in 2024 based on how many times Winn reached base in a game when used in the leadoff spot?

* When Winn didn’t reach base: 10-14 record with an average of 2.1 runs scored in the 14 losses.

* When Winn reached base exactly one time: 15-16 record with an average of 2.4 runs scored in the 16 losses.

* When Winn reached base two or more times: 31-16 record, with the Cards averaging 6.1 runs per victory. Heck, they even averaged 3.9 runs in their 16 losses.

7. If not Winn at leadoff … then who? Victor Scott may be ready for the job at some point, but not anytime soon. There are two options – Brendan Donovan and Lars Nootbaar. Donovan has a career .340 onbase percentage as a leadoff hitter, and Nootbaar is even better with a career .358 OBP when batting first. Noot also brings some power to the No. 1 spot with his .458 career slugging percentage when batting first. Donovan had a strong .357 leadoff OBP in his first two seasons but dipped to a .314 OBP as a leadoff man in ‘24. Because he’s been more aggressive at the plate in a push to hot for more power, Donovan doesn’t draw as many walks as he did as a rookie. Both Nootbaar and Donovan have been very effective when batting first or second in the lineup.

Over the last three seasons, here are the slash lines – batting average, onbase percentage and slugging percentage, from left to right – for Donovan and Nootbaar when they’re utilized at No.1 or No. 2 in the lineup …

Donovan: .290/ .371/ .420 for a .791 OPS and a wRC+ that’s 25 percent above league average offensively.

Nootbaar: .263 / .357 / .468 for a .826 OPS and a wRC+ that’s 30 percent above league average offensively.

8. Nootbaar and Donovan bat left-handed. Isn’t that a potential problem? No, not really. And certainly not as much as we’d assume. And even though both Donovan and Nootbaar bat from the left side, they’ve inflated high onbase percentages against lefty pitchers during their careers when batting either first or second in the lineup. That’s because both are capable of drawing plenty of walks.

9. Conclusion? I think Marmol would have a more capable lineup with Winn batting at a lower spot because he won’t be wasted there. He can be a plus. Last season, when Winn hit at any lineup spot other than No. 1, he batted .327 with a .382 onbase percentage and .456 slug for an .838 OPS. Per wRC+, Winn was 34 percent above league average offensively when he didn’t bat leadoff — and seven percent below league average when he did bat leadoff. Winn’s power is developing. He handles pressure with impressive poise, coming through with one of the team’s best offensive performances in high-leverage spots last season. Winn will do some damage if Marmol will just relocate him to another place on the lineup card.

If he stays in the No. 1 slot, Winn has to be more patient and discerning at the plate. Last season he chased pitches out of the strike zone at a rate (30%) that put him in the bottom 25 percent of MLB hitters.

Here is Winn’s 2024 profile when he swings in the strike zone:

– Non-strikes: .206 average, .294 slugging percentage.

– Strikes: .295 average, .469 slugging percentage.

– Meatball strikes: .307 average, .471 slug.

Marmol has two highly capable hitters in Nootbaar and Donovan that enjoy hitting from the No. 1 or No. 2 slots in the lineup. The most important quality a leadoff man can have is the ability to consistently get on base. And Marmol has two high-OBP guys who have demonstrated a good feel for working at-bats at the top two spaces in the lineup.

10. The Case for Winn to stay at No. 1: Last season he was given an important role at an early age, and was still a rookie, and the challenge of batting leadoff wasn’t easy. That said, Winn had a .351 career onbase percentage in the minors including a .404 OBP at age 20 when playing in the upper Class A level in 2022. The following season, Winn posted a fine .360 onbase rate for Triple A Memphis. (This is based on his plate appearances and isn’t specifically linked to batting leadoff. Winn adjusted and progressed.

When the Cardinals promoted Winn to the big leagues in August of ‘23, Winn had a 2.5 percent walk rate in his first 22 games. He adapted, focused on drawing more walks and had an excellent 14% walk rate over his final 15 games. Winn didn’t put much emphasis on working pitchers for walks last season, but in August he had a .336 OBP and .814 OPS of .814 in the No. 1 post before fading during a weary final month. Winn can run, and has developing power.

Long term, the Cardinals would benefit from Winn’s progression in the top spot of Marmol’s lineup. But in 2025 are the Cardinals thinking long term – as they claim – or is 2025 about winning as many games as possible?

MY PREDICTION: Marmol will keep Winn in the leadoff spot. And the rest of us will hope to see Winn get on base more frequently in his second (full) major-league season.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

Please check out my YouTube channel for video commentary and analyses. Here’s the easy link for you and please subscribe. Thanks in advance.

You can listen to me regularly on KMOX, and check out the Gashouse Gang video stream that airs at noon St. Louis time from Monday through Friday. The “gang” includes Tom Ackerman, Matt Pauley, Kevin Wheeler and yours truly.

The Seeing Red podcast – featuring Will Leitch (and Miklasz) – is recorded on Mondays and is available to download on Apple, Spotify or your preferred podcast service.

The post Bernie’s Bird Watching: Should Masyn Winn Bat Leadoff For the Cardinals in 2025? appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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Nolan Arenado reported to spring training in Jupiter on Sunday, and by all accounts no punches were thrown, no one turned away, and There were no cold-shoulder snubs, no long faces or sour expressions. All was calm. Not a squall in sight.

Arenado reported to work and the Cardinals and their third baseman seemed happy with this development. There were hugs between Arenado and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak. Another hug with Arenado and manager Oli Marmol.

From the photographic evidence, I did not see any villainous black hats … only Cardinal–red caps. Arenado’s feet were on the ground, in the familiar infield dirt that’s been his landscape for 12 big-league seasons. Arenado’s head was straight. After a winter of vigorous work put in to improve his bat speed and physical explosiveness, Arenado’s body frame was lighter. And so too was his mind.

Wasn’t this supposed to be awkward?

“I’m ready to work,” Arenado told the media covering the team’s camp. “It’s not awkward for my teammates and my coaches. And to be honest with you, it’s not really awkward with the front office. They have a job to do and I have a job to do.”

Oh, well. There goes another ridiculous media-driven narrative.

Arenado’s Arrival Day was just another day in Major League Baseball, a sport which generated a record a $12.5 billion in revenue last season. It’s a business.

Players leave as free agents for more money and/or preferred location … or choose to stay where they are. The team decides when it’s time to part with a player that has an expiring contract … and sometimes teams make a business mistake by extending a contract and holding onto a player for too long. The players and the people that own or run the 30 MLB teams make cold, calculated business decisions every day – and that includes the lineup card.

I know this: The Cardinals are a better team with Arenado at third base in 2025.

I don’t feel a need to offer a comprehensive rehash of this saga; we are all well-versed in the basics. Arenado and Mozeliak each thought a trade might be best because of the team’s plans for a “reset” for 2025. The Cardinals were getting younger, and cheaper, and turned up their focus on the minor leagues — so would this place be Arenado’s ideal situation for is age 34 season? No, it was not ideal.

So both sides agreed that it made sense to explore trades. But Arenado has a no-trade clause and had the contractual right to be picky. The Cardinals weren’t going to just give him away, either. There wasn’t a trade match agreeable to Arenado or the front office. So he’s still Cardinal. And he reported to work. And teammates, and the manager, and the coaches, and the front-office delegation was happy to see him. One more time: it’s a business.

Arenado acknowledged a desire to have a chance to win a World Series … and soon. He’s played 12 seasons in the majors, with 1,680 regular-season games under his name.

The postseason? In an MLB career that began in 2013, Arenado has competed in only eight playoff games – and has been on the losing side in seven of those contests. So of course he’s hungering for additional opportunities to make a mark in October baseball. I respect his honesty about that.

The Cardinals are in transition. Chaim Bloom will succeed Mozeliak as president of baseball ops after the ‘25 season. The overdue modernization of the minor-league and player-development operation is underway, and it’s a priority. (As it should be.) At the major-league level, the Cardinals don’t fit the “all-in mode for 2025, and we’ve known that for a while. This is nothing new.

“Do I wish the direction was all-in? Of course,” Arenado said. “But is this what’s probably best for the Cardinals? Probably.”

At no point did Arenado bark at the Cardinals to move him. Mozeliak reaffirmed this during the offseason. “He is not demanding a trade,” Mozeliak said in December. “He’s not telling me I have to do it, but I think in the best interest of both sides, I’d like to try to find him someplace to land.”

That was the agreement between Mozeliak and Arenado. That was business. It made sense for the Cardinals to gauge the market for trade interest in Arenado. It made sense for Arenado to flex his no-trade card as a way to control his destination and fate. It was all business.

And now it’s time to concentrate on the most important thing. And for Arenado, that’s doing everything possible to make sure 2025 can be better than 2024. Having concern over his motivational level and happiness is a waste of time and emotions.

This proud dude despised his career-low 16 home runs and .394 slugging percentage in 2024. It was the poorest season of a distinguished career, and Arenado was disgusted by it.

It’s good to know that he’s fully charged with a single-minded purpose to become more imposing and dangerous at the plate. This attitude can only be positive for Arenado and his teammates. Arenado’s brainspace is unclogged as he begins camp, and this is precisely what we should want.

“Did I sit here in the offseason and think I wasn’t coming back? No, I knew there was always a chance of me coming back, so I’m prepared to be here,” Arenado told reporters Sunday. “The one thing about this place, I’m very comfortable. I know it. That’s going to help me get ready for the season. And I’m in the right place. I feel ready. I have a lot to prove. Last year was not what I want Cardinals fans to know me as, so I see this as an opportunity to change that.”

Arenado also added this, and his honesty is appreciated: “If I was a better player last year, you know, maybe things would be a little bit different. So I’m really focused on that.”

I’m more interested in what will or can happen next, so I’m turning the page. The Cardinals will have their first exhibition game on Saturday. Only six days from now. Their regular-season opening game – which is also the tradition-rich home opener at Busch – is just 33 days after that.

With that in mind, here’s my take on a few areas, and I’ll lay all of this out by asking questions … and answering them.

ISN’T THIS HAPPY TALK IN JUPITER NOTHING MORE THAN AN EXERCISE IN PUBLIC RELATIONS? In other words, did Arenado come to camp and say what everybody wanted to hear in an effort to show that he’s a happy camper? Did the Cardinals say nice things about Arenado to give the impression the ballclub is united and at peace? Well, I believe the Sunday comments were sincere. And they were also in line with what I’ve been saying and predicting for weeks now: once this was over (trade or no trade) it was time to get to work, and it will be in Arenado’s best interests to have an upbeat persona and put up bigger numbers in 2025.

If any of you out there want to be cynical or skeptical and dismiss Sunday’s positive-vibe development as farce or a sideshow or whatever … hey, be my guest. Go for it. Believe as you wish. Because nothing that I will say here is going to change any of the suspicious minds. And none of the suspicious minds will change my view. Because I was expressing these views long before it became safe or fashionable to do so. (There I go again, being the Obnoxious Bernie.)

IS A TRADE STILL POSSIBLE? Of course. But can we take a break from the hyperventilating? We’ll see some rumors being circulated at some point … because that’s how it works in this desperate media age … but I wouldn’t expect trade talk to move to the forefront unless a contending team loses its starting third baseman to injury. And even then (A) the Cardinals aren’t going to give Arenado away for a few cases of Gatorade, and (B) he doesn’t have to consent to a trade unless he’s enthusiastic about the team and its location. Finally, if Arenado reinflates his offensive performance, he’ll be more marketable to contending teams before the July 31 trading deadline. If anything heats up, that’s a logical time.

“If something comes up and it makes sense, I’ll certainly get with [Arenado] and we’ll talk about it,” Mozeliak said Sunday. “But it’s not something where I’m getting up every morning and chasing the waiver wire, or chasing injuries, or chasing things like that.”

WHAT HAPPENS IF THE CARDINALS ARE GOOD? If the Redbirds emerge as a surprising team that has a legitimate chance to contend for a playoff spot, I’m not sure why they’d rush to trade Arenado in July – especially if he’s showing a revival offensively. As I’ve written repeatedly this offseason: from a baseball-only perspective, the Cardinals are a more complete squad with Arenado starting at third. Last season ‘Nado was a Gold Glove finalist and one of the best defenders in the majors at third base last season. Using the FanGraphs version of Wins Above Replacement based only on the games he played at third base, Arenado’s WAR (3.4) was sixth best among all big-league third baseman. His offense, while down, was still higher than the overall MLB offensive performance at third base last year. More on that later.

DOESN’T ST. LOUIS OWNERSHIP WANT TO SAVE PAYROLL DOLLARS? Yeah, but that’s already happened. St. Louis could have traded starting pitcher Erick Fedde but didn’t. They could have traded closer Ryan Helsley and didn’t. Both pitchers can become free agents after the season, and I advocated moving them … which the Cardinals declined to do. Chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. said the team wouldn’t make any additional payroll cuts if Arenado remained with the team. According to Cot’s Contracts, the Cardinals have a projected opening 26-man payroll of $146.7 million, and a 40-man competitive balance tax payroll of $163.4 million. The Cards rank 18th among the 30 teams in both categories, and that’s a different topic for another day. I’ve been saying/writing this for a while, but I don’t care much about payroll this season. I will care a helluva lot more about payroll after Mozeliak leaves office, and only then can we begin to gain an understanding of what Chaim Bloom plans to do … or, more on point, it’s about what the DeWitt-Bloom team will do.

The Cardinals aren’t spending enough to make a more earnest push for a postseason spot in 2025, but I went into this past offseason thinking their ‘25 payroll would be a lot lower than it is. The Bloom Plan to restore the player-development and minor-league departments to previously high standards is a welcome initiative, and that’s where additional investments should go. Of course the Cardinals should strongly consider adding to their bench strength and bullpen and can do that economically. I’m being realistic about this and have no reason to make irrelevant payroll demands of the Cardinals as they prepare for 2025.

HOW DOES ARENADO IMPROVE OFFENSIVELY? Let’s start with this: It would be sweet for Arenado, the team and the fans to see him boost his offensive profile. But I’ve written about this during the offseason and am happy to repeat it now: Arenado is an above-average hitter at the third-base position.

Here’s what I’m talking about using only Arenado’s plate appearances as a third baseman, with no designated hitter numbers in the mix.

— In 2024, MLB third basemen collectively hit .242 with a .308 onbase percentage and .393 slug. And they were three percent below league average offensively per park-and-league adjusted runs created (wRC+).

— In 2024, as a third baseman, Arenado batted .277 with a .329 onbase percentage and .403 slug – and was six percent above league average offensively. My point is, Arenado was a disappointment offensively last season – but he wasn’t a disaster.

OK, BUT HOW DOES ARENADO DO MORE DAMAGE AS A HITTER IN 2025? It’s such a compelling question and I’ve been pondering and researching this because I’m intrigued by his potential for a good comeback on the offensive side of his game. But now that Arenado is “back” let’s review them again. I’ve also updated some of this stuff by doing more research.

1) Pull the ball – and go airborne with it – more frequently. Last season when Arenado pulled a fly ball (to left field) he went 13 for 43 (.302) with 10 homers and a 1.023 slugging percentage. When we add his pulled line drives to Arenado’s 2024 profile, he went 52 for 105 (.495) with 12 doubles, 13 homers and a .981 slugging percentage.

2) In a related note … last season Arenado has his lowest fly-ball rate and highest ground-ball rate since 2018 … and before that we’ve have to go back his rookie season (2013) to find the GB/FLY ratio worse than his 2024 profile.

3) A faster bat speed would benefit him. And that’s what he worked on all winter, and in a variety of ways. I went back today and checked this Statcast information and expanded on it some. In 2024, Arenado’s three fastest bat-speed readings occurred in July, August, May and June. In 333 at-bats during those four quickest-bat months, he batted .291 and slugged .459 with 14 doubles and 13 homers.

4) Arenado crushed left-handed pitching during his career through 2022. But that suddenly stopped over the last two seasons. In 277 at-bats vs. lefties in 2023-2024 combined, Arenado batted .227 with a .383 slugging percentage. A big problem in this downturn was a .226 batting average in balls in play. And yes, luck is a factor in hitting performance – especially for a guy like Arenado, who has excellent contact skills with a low percentage of strikeouts and swings-and-messes. Based on the batted ball metrics against lefties over the past two seasons, Arenado had an expected batting average of .275 instead of an actual batting average of .227. That’s a 48-point difference. And it was much the same with his slugging percentage vs. LH pitchers over the past two seasons; his expected slug was .426 instead of the actual .383. That’s a 43-point difference.

5) There was another factor: too many ground balls against lefties. Over the past two seasons Arenado put 85 grounders in play against LH pitchers and batted .153 with a .165 slug. But when he connected on a fly ball against lefties (63 times) he slugged .617. When he drilled a line drive on lefties (62 times) he slugged .887.

6) Become a road warrior. Last week I mentioned that Arenado has actually hit well at Busch Stadium over the past two seasons – doing so despite an overall decrease in his offense.

Here’s the relevant information:

Road, 2023-2024: .247 average. .295 onbase pct., .407 slug.

Home: 2023-2024: .294 average, .349 onbase pct, .450 slug.

Per wRC+, Arenado was 11 percent below league average offensively on the road over the past two seasons – and 19% above average offensively at Busch Stadium.

That really doesn’t make sense, right? If those numbers were flipped around, and you saw that Arenado was 11 percent below average offensively at Busch Stadium and 19% above average on the road, your response would probably be something like, “I can see that, because it’s easier for Cardinal hitters to put up better numbers on the road compared to home.”

Indeed, Busch is a challenging playground for right-handed batters. So if a hitter (Arenaso) can pump a .450 slugging percentage in a home ballpark that favors pitchers, then he should be able to do it on the road. And that point resonates with me on Arenado.

Which is why I don’t think it’s loony-tunes to expect Arenado to have something of a revival offensively in 2025.

WHAT DOES ARENADO’S “RETURN” MEAN FOR YOUNGER HITTERS? OK, here’s what I think. Barring injury, nothing will change with the plan to give Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker around 550 or more plate appearances in 2025. In particular, Gorman won’t lose a bunch of at-bats just because the initial plan to start him at third base in the event of an Arenado trade. Gorman will play second base. He’ll get some turns at third base against right-handed starting pitchers when Arenado has the day off. And Gorman can be kept busy at DH when he isn’t in the lineup at second base or third base. On days when Gorman plays 2B, we’d expect to see Brendan Donovan playing in left field most of the time.

With Gorman eating into the number of at-bats available to left-handed batters at the designated hitter spot when the other team starts a lefty pitcher, Alec Burleson is the most likely hitter to lose at-bats because of Gorman being utilized more often at DH. Gorman is in the majors because of his power-hitting potential. He isn’t in the majors because of his fielding prowess.

The rest of the stuff will be sorted out over time, and so why rush into speculation? We will have many opportunities to discuss the meaning of it all for the pertinent hitters as spring training warms up, the exhibition games begin, and the Cardinals and every other team begin the process of zoning in on roster spots and lineup decisions. That’s why I chose not to cover every variable right now. And it will be up to Marmol to figure out a way to keep as many position players involved as possible … and give each of them a healthy dose of at-bats. That’s why the front office promoted him to manager in 2022 at the age of 35. Because the bosses thought he was ready. And this will Marmol’s fourth season in the manager’s chair. With Bloom inheriting the top front office job after the 2025 season, this is a big year for Oli.

WILL ARENADO BE A MORE POSITIVE PRESENCE IN THE CLUBHOUSE? I would hope so — but can’t assume anything. Among position players, he’s the elder statesman now. He can set the tone. He can set the example. He can invest in his younger teammates, and I sincerely believe they’d be fired up to have Uncle Nolan making a concerted effort to be their jefe.

WILL FANS RESPOND FAVORABLY TO ARENADO BEING IN PLACE? To an extent, yeah. But that’s up to each and every individual fan. Having Arenado at third base makes the Cardinals a more capable team, but that only goes so far. Many players and pitchers would have to come through with unexpectedly good seasons to re-energize the fan base. The fans have many legitimate grievances. Some of the grievances are misplaced or exaggerated. But no doubt, the disappointment has turned into more anger … and that anger is festering. And in these hostile conditions, fans seem to be bickering with each other.

More than anything they want to see Mozeliak go, and Marmol go, and DeWitt sell the team. How can one season rinse away so many bad feelings.

Arenado is happy in Jupiter, but here in St. Louis, the unhappiness continues to spread. It’s becoming some sort of “I’m madder than you are!” competition.

I don’t think Arenado’s homecoming will foster tranquility.

I don’t even think actual tranquilizers can do that.

This season was NEVER going to be a full reset, so I’m glad Arenado is still at third base.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: Welcome Back, Nolan Arenado! appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

Alex Bregman has agreed to a free-agent contract with the Red Sox, so Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado won’t be shipping up to Boston. After spring training in Florida, ‘Nado will be skiffing up to St. Louis for his fifth season with the Redbirds. With so many potential trade routes closed off, the gateway back to The Lou remains open.

“I think the mindset right now is he’s likely going to be a part of our club at this point,” president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told baseball reporters on the scene in Jupiter.

When asked if Arenado would be on the St. Louis opening-day roster, Mozeliak responded with, “I definitely feel like it’s a better chance than not.”

That’s an understatement.

The Nolan Arenado saga has gone on for so long, with no imminent resolution in plain sight. So what should Mozeliak do?

If the Cardinals keep Arenado, which seems highly probable at this point, they don’t have to do anything except write his name on the lineup card at the start of the regular season.

Play ball. I’ve been through all of this before, but an update is required after the Bregman news and Mozeliak’s declaration on Arenado. So lets break it down again.

As Tony La Russa would say: play a hard nine.

Nine opinions:

1. There is nothing wrong with Arenado coming back. It is the opposite of that. Even at age 34, he makes the Cardinals a better team and has good value. On that principle alone, there was no good reason for Mozeliak to give Arenado away. And if the Cardinals were (are?) so cranked to play Nolan Gorman at third base and move on from Arenado, then ownership-management should be more willing to eat a bigger portion of the $64 million that remains on Arenado’s contract that runs through the 2027 season. And if they don’t want to do that – if such a scenario arises again – then the Cardinals will be making a clear statement: they prefer to keep Arenado instead of paying someone else a ton of quid to take him in.

2. Last season Arenado accrued 3.4 Wins Above Replacement in his 146 games at third base. a figure that encompasses offense, defense and baserunning. Arenado had the sixth-best WAR among MLB third basemen.

3. Arenado’s elite defense will save runs again. And Cardinals starting pitchers appreciate that. Look at the elevated ground-ball rates cultivated by pitchers that are in the mix for 2025:

* Andre Pallante had the highest GB rate (61.6%) in the majors among MLB starters that worked at least 100 innings last season.

* Rookie Michael McGreevy, a ground-ball machine in the minors, had a 58.6% GB rate in his three starts with the big club in ‘24.

* Top pitching prospect Quinn Mathews had a 47% GB game in the minors last season.

* Veterans Sonny Gray and Miles Mikolas each induced a ground-ball rate of 42 percent last year.

The left side of the STL infield will get to a lot of those grounders in 2025. Last season Arenado was third among MLB third basemen in his range rating, and Masyn Winn ranked ninth in range among all shortstops.

4. Hey, but isn’t Arenado in decline offensively? As a power source, yes. But he still has excellent contact skills. His contact rate on strikes (91.7%) in 2024 was a career high. He doesn’t strike out much. He has a very low percentage of swings and misses. He must reduce his ground-ball rate, but Arenado still pulls plenty of fly balls. He doesn’t hit the ball hard by Statcast standards – but that’s been true through most of his career.

Baseball Prospectus just listed Arenado as a rebound candidate for 2025 and noted: “Arenado has always excelled at pulled fly balls, which has allowed him to get the most out of his fairly pedestrian batted-ball data. That makes him a poor fit for Busch Stadium III, which ranks 22nd for right-handed power over the last three years, per Baseball Savant’s Park Factors.”

That is correct; Busch is definitely a tough yard for RH batters. Except that Arenado slugged .433 at Busch Stadium last season. And his four-year slugging percentage at Busch as a Cardinal is .461. And his slugging percentage over the past two seasons (combined) was higher at home than the road.

Nado’s .433 slug in home games was the team’s second-best among right-handed hitters, with only Winn ahead of him. And in 2024, right-handed hitters (all teams) slugged .387 at Busch – which was 46 percent less than Arenado’s rate. I’m not saying Arenado is Frank Thomas or Harmon Killebrew or anything. But a .433 slug at Busch Stadium tells me there’s life in Arenado’s bat. He had a quicker bat for a couple of months last season and his power numbers increased. The ZiPs forecasts projects a .425 slugging percentage for Nado in ’25. That works.

5. Yo, but what about the Cardinals’ plans for a reset? Once again: there is no reset. So it’s time to stop talking about a reset that doesn’t exist. The group of position players currently on the St. Louis 40-man roster took 82.5 percent of the team’s plate appearances last season. The only lineup regular that’s gone from the 2024 lineup is first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, the new Yankee. And all five of the starting pitchers that are tentatively penciled in the rotation were with the Cardinals in 2024. I don’t see any resetting ‘round here. As I said earlier this week, the Cardinals are reheating what they already have.

And that’s why I have, in recent weeks, used too many words to debunk this endless “reset” twaddle. And without a true commitment to a reset, it makes more sense for the Cardinals to keep Arenado.

Hey, Mozeliak and manager Oli Marmol keep talking about how much they like the ballclub and are touting the Cardinals as a surprise entry in 2025. “The Reset” mission statement has been replaced by the “Exceed Expectations” creed. In that context, Arenado still fits. Here’s another idea: if the Cardinals don’t have the guts to go for a real reset, then bring in some talent to give your team more of a chance to be the Exceed Expectations product that you’re trying to sell to the consumers. Think about the streaming service and the $20 per month fee that you’ll be asking fans to pay. My gosh, the Cardinals have wasted the Arenado years. It isn’t too late to do something about that.

6. Does it make sense for the Cardinals to pay Arenado so much money? If he stays for the final three seasons of his contract, the Cardinals will pay Arenado a yearly average of $21.3 million. According to the Spotrac contract-tracking site, 68 major-league players will make at least $20 million in 2025. Arenado has more value than quite a few dudes on that list. And one other thing: I hear constant complaints about Bill DeWitt Jr. not being willing to spend money. Two points: (A) he spends plenty of money but his front office spends it foolishly and (B) DeWitt is spending money on Arenado … So why would the single-issue obsessives – the spend-spend-spend crowd – criticize DeWitt for paying Arenado? Based on Arenado’s 2024 campaign, he had a performance value of $25 million according to FanGraphs. Besides, the Cardinals got a bargain on the overall contract because the Rockies picked up more than $50 million of the salary costs when they traded him to St. Louis.

7. The Cardinals wanted to start Nolan Gorman at third base. What about that? The question: with Arenado still in the house, can Gorman get the 550 or so plate appearances that Mozeliak wants to see from him in 2025? Other than an injury, I don’t know why Gorman would fall short of that. Gorman can resume playing below-average defense at second base. And if the Cardinals are making Gorman’s presence a top priority in ‘25, they should give him plenty at-bats at designated hitter … and I don’t believe there is a federal, state or St. Louis city law that prohibits Gorman from getting 15 games or so at third base.

I’m not trying to say this is an easy, ideal situation. It is not that. Marmol won’t be able to accommodate every hitter that needs or wants a high volume of at-bats. But a lot of managers have this problem. Marmol will have to find ways to effectively distribute at-bats. If not, the Cardinals will have to trade someone to thin the traffic and then reassess Marmol after the season. This has been a issue / problem under Mozeliak for a long time. You know, the annual roster logjam. A surplus of players at one position — and lacking sufficient talent at another position. Marmol shouldn’t be surprised by any of this.

8. Arenado’s presence will likely force Marmol to revise his thinking on the center-field spot. And that is a positive! Assuming that Brendan Donovan will see a lot more time in left field, the shift gives Marmol the opening to play Lars Nootbaar in center field. And that would upgrade the offense; last season the Cardinals got an embarrassing .209 batting average, a dinky .541 OPS, and only four pathetic four homers in 564 at-bats from the center field spot. Over the past two seasons the Cardinals rank 29th among the 30 teams in center-field offense. And over the past three seasons, they’re 27th in offense from the center-field location.

This is absurd, and it’s time to change it. Getting all goosey about the possibility of Nootbaar getting hurt as a center fielder is diaper-baby stuff; he isn’t made out of porcelain and has to play. What, you want to cover him in bubble wrap? Maybe coat him with a couple layers of foamed polystyrene? And in the Arenado-still-here reality, center field is the best place for Noot’s services. The Cardinals doesn’t have the luxury of starting a defensive specialist in center field. With all due respect to Michael Siani, I’m more concerned about finding room for Victor Scott II in 2025.

9. It’s up to Arenado to come to camp with a gung-ho attitude. And that includes having the extra-extra hungry determination to send a message to the contending teams that had no interest in him. Oh, so you think Arenado is burnt pie? Let him show you. How do you like him now? I don’t think Arenado will jake on his teammates. Arenado’s tank should overflow with energy and motivation. Since Arenado is a Kendrick Lamar fan, please allow me to say this: there’s no need to squabble up here.

(And yes, a cantankerous goat who will be 66 years old in two days is allowed to quote K. Lamar, the Pulitzer Prize winning lyricist.)

If Arenado still fancies the idea of being traded to a contender, he can maximize his chances by playing inspired baseball and being a generous teammate. He can eradicate the negative narratives that surround him. He may not have the home-run power of his younger days — but he’s still a powerful figure for the 2025 Cardinals in what has been a weird transitional period for the franchise.

Interested teams will notice a recommitted, renewed Arenado … interested contenders who need a third baseman will REALLY notice him. And instead of John Mozeliak having to call other teams to initiate trade fruitless discussions on Arenado, those teams will be calling on Mozeliak to initiate the conversations.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: Squabble Up? No Way! It’s Time For The Cardinals To Roll With Arenado. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

The St. Louis Cardinals don’t begin their Grapefruit League schedule until Feb. 22, but off the field they’re getting clobbered by critics who have strong opinions about the team’s slothful offseason.

Before I get to what national media are saying, here’s an idea of the outside view of the Cardinals from assorted analytical sites and sportsbooks.

– FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus each project 78 wins for St. Louis. I’ve rounded that off. The Baseball Prospectus simulations have an average St. Louis total of 77.6 wins. USA Today has 75 wins.

– FanGraphs gives the Cardinals a 20.3 percent shot of making the playoffs. That’s 10th in the NL. The only teams that have a longer odds are Cincinnati at 19.5%, Pittsburgh at 18.5%, Washington at 1.5%, and Colorado at less than 1 percent.

– That postseason probability is lower (14%) in the PECOTA system at Baseball Prospectus.

– The FanDuel sportsbook set the over/under win total for the Cardinals at 75.5. Among National League teams only Colorado (59.5), Miami (63.5) and Washington (70.5) have a lower over/under line than St. Louis. At FanDuel, even the Pirates are listed above the Cardinals with an over/under total of 76.5 wins. Covers dot.com set the over/under number for the Cardinals at 77.5 wins.

If the 2025 Cardinals fail to reach the playoffs, that will be three consecutive seasons of missing out on October baseball. And the three-season absence from postseason ball would be the third during the Bill DeWitt Jr. ownership era. The Cards didn’t make the playoffs in 1997, 1998 and ‘99. DeWitt’s club also came up short in 2016, 2017 and 2018.

In my opinion, if it happens again and the Cardinals are eliminated from playoff contention for the third year in a row, it would be the low point of DeWitt’s ownership term. I say that because of the easier path to October since the postseason format was expanded in 2022 to include three wild-card teams in each league. In the three seasons since the change went into effect, six of the nine National League wild-card teams qualified with fewer than 90 wins. Three made it in with no more than 87 wins.

If the 2025 Cardinals can sneak into the postseason, I’ll consider their season a success based on the low expectations. But beyond that … if you’re confident in a great season by STL, the Cardinals are a 70-1 shot to win the World Series.

The Cardinals continue to get blasted for their somnambulant offseason. If you missed all or some of the metaphorical grenades being lobbed their way, here’s a roundup to get you up to speed. Not all of it is bad …

Our pal Bob Nightengale of USA Today didn’t hold back. The headline over his 2025 outlook was “Dodgers ready to repeat, Cardinals look clueless.”

“This is a franchise we no longer recognize,” Nightingale wrote of the Redbirds. “They’ve been the class of the NL Central since the turn of this century with 11 division titles, four World Series appearances and two championships in front of baseball’s greatest fans. Now, for the first time in three decades, they’re settling for mediocrity while they undergo a rebuild. They haven’t signed a single free agent, made one trade for utilityman Michael Helman, who was about to be designated for assignment by the Minnesota Twins, and still are desperately trying to unload third baseman Nolan Arenado and the remaining ($64) million in his contract. It’s going to be a long, hot summer in St. Louis.”

Kiley McDaniel of ESPN.com put the Cardinals on the “Biggest Offseason Losers” list but wasn’t too mean about it.

“The Cardinals are one of three teams that has not signed a player to a free agent contract this winter, joined by a full-on rebuilding Marlins team and the bottom-ten payroll Brewers,” McDaniel wrote. “St. Louis’ payroll is down $35 million from last season, possibly more if the Cardinals can figure out a way to trade Nolan Arenado. On the bright side, they do have a nice group of intriguing young position players, two solid veteran starting pitchers, one of the better closers in baseball and a collection of young pitching prospects who should be showing up in the second half of 2025. There’s a shot that the restraint shown this offseason will look correct a year from now, with a number of young players making big steps forward but that was also the hope last year, with mostly the same group of players, and it didn’t work.”

Among other admonishments, ESPN’s Jeff Passan chastised the Cardinals for their inability to trade Arenado.

“Three years after joining St. Louis, Arenado wants to be traded, and the Cardinals would like to oblige. Just for the right price,” Passan wrote. “With the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers seen as long shots to make a move for Arenado, an eight-time All-Star third baseman, the Red Sox remain the landing spot that makes the most sense. Though Arenado used his no-trade clause to block a deal to Houston this winter, he would waive it to end up in Boston, according to sources.

“Moving Arenado could force St. Louis to eat upward of half the money he is owed ($64 million.) Short of that, Boston’s interest is iffy. Such posturing, of course, is the domain of the winter — and when something looks dead one day, it can come back to life the next. Still, for a team that values its analytical model as much as Boston does, deviating from it is not Boston’s style. The Red Sox will set a number they’re willing to take on. And either there will or won’t be a deal.

“Why St. Louis hasn’t been more aggressive in dealing its bevy of talent — from Arenado to starters Sonny Gray and Erick Fedde to closer Ryan Helsley to young players (Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman) who have hit a wall — is confounding executives around the industry. If the Cardinals aren’t going to spend — and they haven’t spent a dollar in free agency — surely, the thinking goes, they should leverage the players they’ve got now and start building toward something more.

“Instead, they are seemingly content to run it back, even if that means the awkwardness of Arenado returning. The Cardinals have prepared for that possibility — and are content after a mediocre season in which they lost nearly 400,000 fans with another uninspiring winter. It’s an organization stuck in neutral, a feeling that led to John Mozeliak announcing he will step away after the 2025 season and yielding the team’s president of baseball operations job to former Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom.

“The Cardinals’ direction will become clearer when owner Bill DeWitt Jr. decides whether to kick in more money to facilitate an Arenado deal. Just how willing he is to do so will become clearer in the coming days and weeks.”

Zach Presnell of Newsweek is confused by the Cardinals’ offseason.

“The St. Louis Cardinals are reportedly looking to rebuild after years of being mediocre,” he wrote. “They’ve already cut ties with multiple veteran players, but their rebuild hasn’t really gotten off its feet. St. Louis hasn’t traded away their better players, which is typically the idea behind a rebuild. Players like Ryan Helsley and Sonny Gray are losing value by the day. Not to mention the disaster that’s been the Nolan Arenado trade sweepstakes.”

Jim Bowden of The Athletic put Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak on the offseason “losers” list.

“Mozeliak has led the Cardinals’ front office since (2008), helping guide St. Louis to 10 postseason appearances, including a World Series championship in 2011,” Bowden wrote. “His teams had a winning record in all but two of the seasons in that span. However, everyone has an expiration date and Mozeliak has decided to step aside at the end of this year. He’ll turn the keys to the franchise over to former Boston top executive Chaim Bloom, who will become the club’s president of baseball operations.

“Mozeliak’s final offseason running the Cardinals has been a dud. He has not signed a single (major-league) free agent nor made a single trade. Paul Goldschmidt departed in free agency and signed with the Yankees. Most of Mozeliak’s winter has been spent trying to trade the declining Nolan Arenado and his bad contract to no avail. ‘Mo’ is a class act who has had a very respectable career. But, I’m sure this is not how he would have scripted the start of his final year running the show in St. Louis.”

Back to Kiley McDaniel, who put the Cardinals farm system at No 19 …

“The Cardinals have some strong upper-minors pitching depth in right-handers Tink Hence, Michael McGreevy and Tekoah Roby and left-handers Quinn Mathews and Cooper Hjerpe — and I’d expect to see shortstops JJ Wetherholt and Thomas Saggese as well as catchers Leonardo Bernal and Jimmy Crooks in the upper minors in 2025,” McDaniel wrote. “I’d bet there will be some All-Star appearances among that group, which is increasingly what the Cardinals need from their system. Their organizational payroll posture is effective at filling out a core with solid contributors, but they need to out-scout the competition to find stars since they haven’t been interested in paying retail price in free agency.

“There are only two players in the organization with contracts guaranteed after 2026. St. Louis is in the middle of trying to trade one of them (Nolan Arenado), which bodes well for flexibility, but the core needs to be bolstered by standout young players, whether that is prospects or recent graduates.”

Keith Law (The Athletic) had a more positive view of the St. Louis farm system, putting the Cardinals at No. 14.

“The Cardinals have a lot of untapped potential in their system beyond their top five, and perhaps Rob Cerfolio, newly hired from the Guardians to run player development, can help some of the prospects here who’ve plateaued get back on track,” Law wrote. “Right now it’s a big pile of prospects who’ll get to the majors, but maybe not as impact players — fifth starters and middle relievers and backups — yet some of them at least have the tools or skills to be something more. The talent here probably outstrips the production you see on the stat sheets.”

FanGraphs placed the Cardinals in the “laying the foundation” category in placing MLB teams into tiers. The Cards were ranked 21st overall.

“For all the talk about taking a step back in 2025 to reset for the future, the Cardinals haven’t done much of anything this offseason,” Jeff Mailhot wrote. “They haven’t found a trading partner suitable enough for Nolan Arenado to waive his no-trade clause, and they haven’t exchanged any other established talent for prospects. Considering this, it seems that getting out from Arenado’s contract is their sole focus until Chaim Bloom takes over for lame duck president of baseball operations John Mozeliak after the season. There is some solid young talent currently on the roster, but it looks like St. Louis is content to spend 2025 spinning its tires with the same mediocre group that’s fallen short of the playoffs each of the past two years.”

Jordan Shusterman, Yahoo Sports, gave the Cardinals a “D” grade for their offseason …

“Major Move: Declared their intention to trade Nolan Arenado,” Shusterman wrote. “From the earliest days of this offseason, John Mozeliak has been adamant and tremendously transparent about the club’s desire to trade third baseman Nolan Arenado. With the Cardinals in something of a transitional state as a franchise, both player and team thought it best to find a new home for Arenado and clear the way for some younger players on the St. Louis roster.

“However, Arenado’s contract and the no-trade clause within it have made it difficult for the Cardinals to find the right deal. Arenado rejected an agreed-upon deal to Houston in December, and the Astros have since pivoted with their third-base plans. The Cardinals are still seeking a landing spot for Arenado, and Mozeliak said recently that it’s a ‘coin flip’ whether they will find a deal, even with their continued intentions.

“It’s not that St. Louis’ roster looks particularly poor as currently constructed. It’s that all the Cardinals talk this winter has been about subtracting rather than adding, not just in regard to Arenado but also with trade rumors involving closer Ryan Helsley and starters Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde and Steven Matz. However, all of that talk has amounted to nothing so far, leaving St. Louis with one of the least active offseasons of any team in MLB — and a D grade that reflects it.’

The baseball-writing staff at The Score ranked the 30 teams for their performance through the halfway point of the current decade. The Cardinals were 13th.

“The Cardinals opened the decade with three consecutive wild-card losses before posting their worst winning percentage in 28 years in 2023. There were several bright spots along the way despite the early playoff exits, including Paul Goldschmidt winning NL MVP the same year Nolan Arenado finished third. There were also plenty of tears as the careers of Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, and Albert Pujols ended. The Cardinals’ problem is that they haven’t been able to transition from old to new. St. Louis is set to embark on another era in 2026 with John Mozeliak passing the torch to Chaim Bloom as the Cardinals prepare for a rebuild.”

The Score staff also commented on the PECOTA projection that has the Cardinals winning 78 games in 2025. The writers went with 78 wins. “St. Louis seems to be trying to move into a rebuild but is stuck with an expensive, aging roster and a third baseman who wants to be traded. That’s a recipe for disaster.”

First-year manager Albert Pujols managed the Dominican Republic to the championship in the annual Caribbean Series. Which naturally led to speculation.

“Albert Pujols has expressed his interest in becoming a big-league manager and (St. Louis) could be the perfect opportunity,” wrote Auston Owens of Fansided. “With Oli Marmol not able to reach the goals of the organization over the last three seasons, it would not be surprising if the Cardinals decided to part ways with the skipper. Pujols is a fan favorite in St. Louis (and rightfully so) and would be more than welcomed by the Cardinals fan base as manager. Pujols is one of the most respected former players in the league and would undoubtedly have a great rapport with his players as he has shown in the Caribbean Series.”

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: The Cardinals’ Dull Offseason Is Getting Flamed By National Media. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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The Cardinals are entering the gates of Jupiter, straight into spring training, for seven weeks of drills, hard work, sunshine, blue skies, exhibition games. The return of baseball is still a big deal in me ol’ mind and heart.

In the spirit of the obligatory optimistic “feels” at this time of year, I’m taking a look at 10 St. Louis hitters and explaining why it isn’t cuckoo to think that they can do better than expected in 2025. It’s based on facts, with just a dash of wishful thinking added to my pragmatism.

NOLAN ARENADO: Who knows when and if he’ll be traded. But I’ll go back to a couple of things I’ve pointed out already. Arenado has worked on improving his bat speed, and he had his quickest swings in July–August of last season. Over the two months Arenado batted .286 with a .442 slugging percentage. Compared to his showing in the first half, Arenado improved his slugging percentage by 34 points – and his OPS by 39 points – after the All-Star break. And here’s an interesting note, at least to me: despite Busch Stadium being a park that suppresses power, Arenado actually slugged .433 at home last season.

To extend the point, Arenado batted .307 with a .797 OPS at Busch last year. And if we use wRC+ – runs created adjusted for park and league effects – Arenado performed 26 percent above league average at Busch Stadium and was 21 percent below average away from home. Go figure. But if he can put up those kinds of numbers at Busch Stadium, perhaps the Red Sox should take a look at that.

I’m not done. Here are Arenado’s home/road splits over the last two seasons combined:

— At Busch: .291 average, .446 slug, 19 percent above league average offensively per wRC+

— On Road: .247 average, .407 slug, 11 percent below league average offensively.

Weird. Go figure. Maybe ‘Nado really does love playing ball in The Lou.

WILLSON CONTRERAS: This one’s easy. All we have to do is look at his offensive performance in 853 plate appearances as a Cardinal. In his two seasons with STL, Contreras has performed 29 percent above league average offensively, posted a very good 11.3 percent walk rate, reached base 37 percent of the time, slugged .468, and produced an extra-base hit every 10.8 at-bats. Over the past two seasons Contreras ranks 11th among right-handed hitters with a wRC+ that’s 33 percent above league average. (Minimum 850 plate appearances.)

NOLAN GORMAN: Strikeouts? Sure. I think I’ve heard something about that. (Writer pauses. Rolls eyes.) But the tradeoff is a load of power. In 670 plate appearances from the start of the 2023 season through June 4 of ‘24, Gorman ranked 13th among big-league left-handed hitters with a .487 slugging percentage, which was higher than that of Kyle Schwarber, Max Muncy, Christian Yelich and Riley Greene (among others,) Gorman’s 41 home runs over that time were 11th among LH batters, and he had more homers than Bryce Harper and Freddie Freeman.

In his first 259 games in the majors, Gorman walloped 55 home runs for a total that put him 10th among all left-handed MLB hitters. In his 259-game intro to the big leagues, Gorman hit a HR every 20.8 at-bats, slugged .466 and generated a wRC+ that was 17 percent above league average offensively. Even with the whiffs, that’s impressive work. And that 259-game sample size is a heck of a lot more meaningful than his 54-game wipeout that preceded his demotion to Triple A Memphis last summer.

Among other things, Gorman in 2024 will have a new batting coach (Brant Brown) who is more in tune with younger hitters and won’t give up on him. The same applies to Jordan Walker. Speaking of Walker. Brant is no savior, but he’s a coach who won’t become exasperated by the travails of young hitters.

JORDAN WALKER: We know he can hit well because we saw him do it as a 21-year old rookie in 2023. The wild-card era began in 1995. And here’s where Jordan ranked in a few key offensive categories in a season among rookies age 21 or younger over the past 30 years. (Minimum 465 plate appearances):

• .276 batting average, 15th
• .342 onbase percentage, 13th
• .445 slugging percentage, 15th
• .787 OPS, 15th
• 113 OPS+: 15th

Last season was a mess for Walker but the Cardinals have mismanaged his career since rushing him to the majors before the 2023 season without the benefit of a single game at the Triple A level. And the Cardinals panicked again early in 2024 after Walker got off to a terrible start. They didn’t stick with him. The hitting coaches were clueless on how to get him going. So the Cardinals took the easy way out and shoved him back to the minors. I look forward to watching a rejuvenated Walker’s attempt to overcome the damage caused by the Cardinals.

ALEC BURLESON: He can hit. His problem is swinging at too many pitches out of the strike zone and connecting with them. If Burleson can be more selective, his offense will improve. But he can hit. Before the 2024 All-Star break Burleson batted .288 with a .494 slug and .814 OPS. His nice haul included 17 home runs and 53 RBIs. Even though he tired down the stretch, Burleson still ended up as the team’s leading RBI man, finished second in homers, and third in slugging. Yes, he can hit.

Earlier this month Baseball Prospectus named Burleson as one of eight MLB hitters “on the rise” for 2025. Wrote Daniel R. Epstein:

“Rather than focus on where the club went wrong (in 2024), let’s look at one of the ones they got right. Burleson was the team’s best hitter last season until a disastrous September in which he slugged .226.”

LARS NOOTBAAR: It’s just a matter of loading this energetic horse into the starting gate enough times to improve his chances of winning races as part of a winning performance. Over the last three seasons, among MLB outfielders that have at least 1,000 plate appearances over that time, Nootbaar ranks 24th with a wRCT+ that’s 18 percent above the league average. He has the No. 5 walk rate (14%), the No. 15 onbase percentage (.351), and is 26th in OPS (.777.) His slugging percentage is a respectable .426. MLB.com recently put Nootbaar in right field on their “All-Underrated” team for 2025.

“Injuries have prevented a true breakout for the 27-year-old Nootbaar,” Anthony Castrovince wrote. “In the last two seasons, he’s hurt himself sliding into bases, running into walls and even just swinging the bat. That’s no fun. But when able to take the field, Nootbaar has shown excellent plate discipline, leading to a 116 OPS+ over the last three seasons — production basically on par with our left fielder, Taylor Ward. When you look at Nootbaar’s Baseball Savant page, you might note that he’s in the 82nd percentile or better in whiff percentage, average exit velocity, max exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, walk rate and chase percentage. All this points to a breakout in the making for Nootbaar… if he can stop running into walls.”

BRENDAN DONOVAN: We’ve observed Donovan’s range of offensive capabilities during his three seasons as a Cardinals.

– Want a high onbase percentage? Well, he cultivated a .394 OBP as a rookie in 2022.

– Want a dude who wears out pitchers by extending his at-bats? Well, Donovan ranked among the top 10 hitters in the bigs in 2022 by averaging 4.17 pitches seen per plate appearances. And his selectivity led to a 13 percent walk rate.

– Want a blast of power? Well, Donovan is no Sultan of Swat, but he slugged .422 in 2024 and launched 14 home runs.

– Want a guy who hits to all fields? In his career Donovan has 119 hits when he pulls the ball, 171 hits when he goes up the middle, and 76 hits to the opposite field.

– Want a “clutch” hitter? Donny is your guy. With runners in scoring position for his career, Donovan has batted .305 with an .885 OPS. With runners in scoring position and two outs, Donovan has a .282 average and .814 OPS. And in the most important at-bats – high leverage situations – Donovan has a .304 average .907 OPS.

If Donovan can effectively synthesize his OBP and slugging skills in 2025, he’ll have a career-best season.

MASYN WINN: For the second-year shortstop, the goal (offensively) in 2025 is to take everything he did well in 2024 and improve on areas that need some work. Mostly, doing better against offspeed pitches … and perhaps being more patient at the plate … and becoming more adept at stealing bases. But I don’t think you need me to tell you why he impressed us all as a rookie last year, and this particular discussion is limited to his offense.

Counting only the games he started at shortstop last season, Winn batted .271 with a .316 OBP and .421 slug for a fine .737 OPS. Oh, and 15 home runs. Winn was a good two-strike hitter. He was a terrific (.303) high-leverage hitter. He batted .472 with a 1.331 OPS when pulling the ball and had a .383 average and .505 slug when he hit to the opposite field. When the Cardinals won a game, Winn was often in the middle of the action and making it happen. In the team’s victories Winn hit .298 with a .497 slug.

Winn has special poise and sharp situational awareness. And he’ll turn 23 years old on March 16.

IVAN HERRERA: So much to like. He just needs the manager who will give him 500+ plate appearances. In 259 PA last season Herrera hit .301, walked a lot, shaped a swell .372 OBP, and slugged .428. He was one of the very best hitters in the majors among players age 24 or younger. And for a strong dude who swings hard and hits the ball hard, Herrera’s 20 percent strikeout rate (in 2024) was quite admirable.

PEDRO PAGES: He had some good stretches as a rookie hitter in 2024. Example: Pages slugged .416 after the All-Star break, a mark that was inflated by a .456 slug over the final month. Pages hit the ball hard last season. He made solid sweet-spot contact. But he was overpowered by fastballs in his first major-league test, and that rookie .281 OBP won’t fly. But the point is, we’ve seen some flashes of his offensive potential. And Pages is a defense-first catcher. Remember Yadier Molina’s early major-league seasons? In his first 405 games, Molina had an OPS+ that was 30 percent below league average. But over time he got much better offensively.

Thanks for reading …

-Bernie

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: A Look At Potential Stat-Based Positives For The Cards’ Offense In 2025. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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Going into the 59th Super Bowl, I envisioned two scenarios in the matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles.

If the more talented Philly team won, it would be a trouncing, a beatdown. If the Chiefs won, it would be done with their usual method: hang tough, summon another late-game comeback, and find a way to win at the end.

I had two choices to make for a prediction, and I went with the close-call Kansas City scenario. I went with the Chiefs because of their championship DNA personified by coach Andy Reid, quarterback Patrick Mahomes and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo.

Wrong.

Sunday in New Orleans the Eagles wiped out the possibility of a drama-filled game, shredded Kansas City’s map to victory, and knocked the Chiefs out by halftime. Just like the on-stage sign that marked the conclusion of Kendrick Lamar’s halftime show: GAME OVER.

Philly led 24-0 at the half after breaking the Chiefs in half. Kansas City’s bid for an NFL record third straight Super Bowl was denied.

Observations:

ON PATRICK MAHOMES: The Kansas City quarterback has now lost two Super Bowls, and both were blowouts. In Sunday’s cudgeling, the Eagles stormed through an overmatched offensive Kansas City line to sack Mahomes six times, hit him 11 times, and pressured him at a high rate until the game devolved into a full-on clobbering. The Eagles didn’t allow a point until the Chiefs scored a touchdown with 34 seconds left in the third quarter.

Mahomes was frazzled, and no wonder. He had to throw from inside the vortex of the fierce pass-rush tornado generated by Philadelphia. Mahomes turned the ball over three times on two interceptions (including a pick six) and a sack-fumble. It was reminiscent of Tampa Bay’s 31-9 destruction of the Chiefs and Mahomes’ faulty protection in Super Bowl 55.

In the Tampa Bay loss, Mahomes was pressured on a staggering 59 percent of his dropbacks, and the Buccaneers didn’t have to blitz to get heat on him. In the Philadelphia loss, Mahomes was pressured on 53.3 percent of his dropbacks that occurred before garbage time. And as mentioned, the Eagles were able to rush just four guys and mob Mahomes.

At some point, it might be a good idea for the Kansas City front office to put together a solid offensive line for Mahomes. Just a thought. This will require at least two things: astute drafting, and a reallocation of payroll dollars. The Chiefs expect Mahomes to keep winning Super Bowls with bad offensive lines and (mostly) pedestrian wide receivers. Tight end Travis Kelce was an excellent target for a long time – and still has some great moments – but he’s gone through the inevitable career-fade stage over the last two seasons.

The story here isn’t that Mahomes has lost two Super Bowls and played poorly both times. The story? In both losses, he never had a chance because his offensive line was overrun and bullied. Mahomes just carried the Chiefs to their fifth Super Bowl appearance in his seven seasons as a starter. He shouldn’t be taken for granted.

MAHOMES VS. TOM BRADY: After Sunday’s sacking, I read a couple of game analyses that went sort of like this: “Let’s Pause the Brady-Mahomes comparisons!” Which, of course, suggests that it’s premature to elevate Mahomes to Brady’s level. Brady won seven Super Bowls during his 23-season career that made him the greatest quarterback in NFL history. Mahomes had three Super Bowl titles by age 29; Brady had three by age 27. But Brady’s longevity and sustained success separated him from every other quarterback. He won his first Super Bowl at age 23, and won his last Super Bowl at age 43. That’s remarkable.

So when we compare Mahomes to Brady, it isn’t about trying to make a case that Mahomes is the superior quarterback that is well on the way to eclipsing Brady. That’s insane. Mahomes can’t jump the line like that. Mahomes would have to play a very long time, and win four more Super Bowls to equal Brady. From a career standpoint, the Mahomes-Brady study should be limited to what each quarterback pulled off during their career progression – and in this case, focusing on age-related success.

If there is a foundation for legitimate comparisons, it’s this:

* In the wild-card era, which began in 1978, how many quarterbacks have won 17 postseason games through their age 29 season? Answer: Only one, Mahomes. No other quarterback has more than 10.

* How many quarterbacks have won at least three conference championships through their age 29 season? Answer: Mahomes 5, Brady 3, Troy Aikman 3, Ben Roethlisberger 3.

* In this era, what quarterbacks have started in the most conference championship games through their age 29 seasons? Answer: Mahomes 7, Aikman 4, Roethlisberger 4, Donovan McNabb 4.

* In this era, what quarterbacks have started the most Super Bowl games through their age 29 season? Answer: Mahomes 5, Brady 3, Aikman 3. In case you’re wondering, Brady’s age 29 season came in 2006. He would not start his fourth and fifth Super Bowls until age 30, and 33, respectively.

* In this era, what starting quarterbacks have won the most Super Bowls through their age 29 seasons? Answer: Mahomes 3, Brady 3, Aikman 3.

Perhaps this is the most meaningful comparison: In his first five Super Bowls, Brady went 3-2. In his first five Super Bowls, Mahomes went 3-2. If we want to parse that a little, then here’s the point to make: Brady lost his first two Super Bowls (both to the Giants) by an average of 3.5 points. Mahomes lost his two Super Bowls by an average of 23 points.

Another relevant comparison: In his first seven full seasons as a starting quarterback, Brady had a .793 winning percentage. In his first seven full seasons as a starter, Mahomes had the same .793 winning percentage.

Or if you want to slice it another way, using each quarterback’s first 133 career starts, regular season and postseason combined: Mahomes 106-27, Brady 104-29.

Mahomes has nothing to apologize for. At the age of 29, he has won 17 of 21 playoff games and his overall winning percentage as a starter in the regular season and postseason is a preposterous .797.

In only seven seasons, Mahomes has competed in a combined 12 conference championship games (7) and Super Bowls (5). But the next stage of Mahomes’ career will be more challenging unless the Chiefs do an adept job retooling his supporting ensemble instead of expecting Mahomes to constantly save them in tight, down-to-the-wire games.

IN PRAISE OF JALEN HURTS: Philadelphia’s 26-year old starting quarterback was fabulous in Super Bowl 59. He completed 17 of 22 passes for 221 yards, two touchdowns and a 119.7 passer rating. He also set a Super Bowl record for most yards rushing (72) by a quarterback and ran the tush-push play for another touchdown. There was one interception … but so what?

Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnulo understandably set up his defense to contain Eagles all-galaxy running back Saquon Barkley. And the Chiefs got it done, checking Barkley to only 57 yards on 25 carries. But in aggressively arranging his personnel to stop Barkley, Spags also made a challenge to Hurts: we don’t think you can beat us, so we’ll focus on your running back instead.

Hurts defeated Spagnuolo’s strategy with ease. And with so many KC defenders positioned inside the hash marks, Hurts threw 77.3 percent of his passes outside the numbers, beating the one-on-one coverage by completing 8 of 10 passes for 81 yards and an excellent 0.43 EPA per play. On his downfield throws (10+ yards) Hurts hit on 5 of 7 passes for 137 yards and a touchdown. Pro Football Focus credited Hurts with four big-time throws and just one turnover-worthy play.

Over his final 10 regular-season games – not counting a late game at Washington when he suffered an early concussion – Hurts connected on 70 percent of his throws with 14 touchdowns and one interception and had a 115.5 passer rating.

In Philly’s four postseason wins, Hurts completed 71.4 percent of his passes for 726 yards, five touchdowns, one interception and a 108.6 passer rating. He also injected more fuel into the Eagles offense by rushing for 726 yards and five scores.

The postseason run – capped by a sharp Super Bowl performance – will do wonders for how Hurts is perceived by media and critical fans. Fairly or unfairly, quarterbacks are judged by Super Bowl rings.

Hurts, with one, has as many as Len Dawson, John Unitas, Ken Stabler and Steve Young, Kurt Warner, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford and Russell Wilson. On top of that, it put Hurts ahead of prominent young quarterbacks who haven’t won a Super Bowl – Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Jared Goff, Dak Prescott and Justin Herbert.

VIC FANGIO’S MAGNUM OPUS: Fangio is on the short list of the best defensive coordinator of his time. He’s been a defensive coordinator for seven teams since 1995, and also had a three-year term (2019-2021) as Denver’s head coach. Fangio, 66, has moved around a lot during his career. Two reasons, at least: (1) he believes in playing his preferred style of defense; and (2) he is allergic to fools and won’t be polite just to appease them; and (3) insecure head coaches are uncomfortable with Fangio’s brusque personality.

The Eagles needed a major shakeup after an unsettling 203 season. And part of the changes included the hiring of two new coordinators: Fangio to run the defense, and Kellen Moore to devise the offense. Both moves, led by GM Howie Roseman, worked marvelously. (More on Roseman later.)

Under Fangio this season, based on the Extra Points Added metric (EPA), the Eagles were the league’s No. 1 defense overall, No. 1 against the pass, No. 4 against the run, and virtually tied for first for fewest points allowed per game at 17.8. Fangio isn’t a fan of blitzes; this season only four teams dogged quarterbacks fewer times than the Eagles.

Fangio wants a front four that can rush the quarterback without extra help from the blitz. He wants rangy linebackers who can move fast to the football or drop effectively into coverage. Fangio is a pure zone pass-defense guy. He uses the Cover 4 scheme – which has four defensive backs splitting the part of the field into four distinct quarters. Each DB is responsible for covering one of the quarters. He wants the offense to use short passes to methodically work their way down the field, with Fangio counting on his front four to pressure the quarterback into a missed throw or another mistake that kills a possession. And if the offense gets inside the 20-yard line on his defense, then Fangio tightens the screws to deny red zone touchdowns.

This approach has worked very well for Fangio during his career. And the Fangio philosophy and scheme worked smashingly well against Mahomes and the Chiefs.

Kansas City had only 23 yards on 20 plays in the first half. On their first nine possessions – as Philadelphia built a 34-0 lead – the Chiefs scraped for only 65 yards on 30 plays. That’s 2.16 yards per play. That’s incredible defense. And what came after that was absolutely irrelevant; the Chiefs scored three junk touchdowns after the competitive aspect of this game was over.

Sunday, the Chiefs couldn’t attack Fangio’s zone defense because Mahomes didn’t have time to wait for receivers to find the soft spot. Philly’s front four made that virtually impossible, and the defense all over everything that Mahomes tried to do.

By having such a vicious, as-is pass rush with their four D-linemen, the Eagles played nickel defense – which deploys a fifth defensive back – on 98 percent of the snaps. And the Eagles used a “light” box 91 percent of the time, with the front seven becoming a front six.

That gave Philly one less defender for patrolling the run, but Fangio figured the Chiefs had no interest in running the football. And he was correct. According to the 33rd Team NFL analysis site, Fangio called a zone coverage on all but two dropbacks, and the Eagles played Cover 4 on 59.5 percent of plays – the third-highest rate by a defense since 2018.

When Mahomes had some time to throw the football, he didn’t know where to go with it. So he ended up taking sacks, getting hit, or forcing throws. The Eagles set a trap for Mahomes on his two interceptions. Kansas City coach Andy Reid – one of the most creative offensive minds in league history – tried to flood the field with five receivers. It didn’t matter. Fangio’s defense just hounded Mahomes and ball-hawked passes.

Until Sunday, Fangio’s defenses were 0-8 against the Reid-Mahomes offense. Even though Fangio came up with lots of ways to slow the Chiefs down in those games, he still lost all eight of them. But not on Sunday. The Fangio game plan wasn’t perfect, but it was close to that before the contest became a non-contest once the Iggles opened the 34-point lead.

The other thing that stood out to me about the Fangio defense was how the unit put every postseason opponent into a stranglehold, suppressing the other team’s offense for a huge portion of the game to give the Philadelphia offense a chance to kick in and build leads. Here’s what I’m referring to, in chronological order:

* No touchdowns allowed in Green Bay’s first seven possessions.

* One touchdown allowed on the Rams’ first 10 possessions.

* One touchdown allowed during Washington’s first seven possessions.

* No touchdowns allowed on Kansas City’s first nine possessions.

HOWIE ROSEMAN, TAKE A BOW: The Eagles GM was kicked upstairs in 2015, with then Philly head coach Chip Kelly given the general manager responsibilities with authority over roster decisions. That didn’t work, and Roseman returned to the general manager chair in 2019. There have been some ups and downs, but Roseman had an amazing offseason that made this Super Bowl possible.

Here’s a partial list of Roseman’s moves after the 2023 season that got the Eagles primed for 2024:

+ Retained head coach Nick Sirriani, who unraveled in 2023 as the Eagles collapsed late in the season before getting demolished 32-9 by Tampa Bay in the first round of the playoffs.

+ Hired offensive coordinator Kellen Moore.
+ Hired defensive coordinator Voc Fangio.
+ Signed running back Saquon Barkley.
+ Signed linebacker Zack Braun.
+ Signed defensive back C.J. Gardner-Johnson.
+ Signed guard-tackle Mekho Bacon.
+ Signed linebacker Oren Burks,
+ Drafted cornerback Quinyon Mitchell in 1st round.
+ Drafted cornerback Cooper DeJean in 2nd round.
+ Drafted defensive end Jalyx Hunt in 3rd round.
+ Traded for wide receiver Jahan Dotson.

+ Gave contract extensions to wide receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, guard Landon Dickerson, offensive tackle Jordan Mailata, and kicker Jake Elliott.

Roseman already had a roster loaded with talent before he reinforced the defense with several superb additions. The list of draft picks brought in by Roseman included four Georgia football alums: Jalen Carter, Nakobe Dean, Jordan Davis and Nolan Smith.

The bad news for the rest of the league: Philadelphia has one of the youngest rosters in the NFL and has a clear chance to do this again — soon — and grab another Super Bowl trophy.

Congrats to the Eagles and their fans.

–Bernie

The post Bernie: In Philadelphia Style, The Eagles Rudely Ruined The Planned Super Bowl Celebration In Kansas City. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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Who will win the 59th Super Bowl?

As you know, Kansas City will attempt to become the first team in NFL history to win three consecutive Super Bowls. And if the Chiefs pull it off, the NFL title would be their fourth in six seasons. But even getting there again is not only remarkable but unprecedented; KC is ramping up for a fifth Super Bowl appearance in the last six seasons.

Since Patrick Mahomes became the starting quarterback at the outset of 2018, the accomplished partnership of coach Andy Reid and Mahomes is 17-3 in the postseason. Going back to Dec. 31 of the 2023 season, and including the playoffs, Kansas City has won 23 of the last 24 games started by Mahomes.

Uh, the Chiefs are pretty good.

Standing in the way of Kansas City’s incredible run are the Philadelphia Eagles, a tough and talented team that will bring the NFL’s best defense and the circuit’s top running back, Saquon Barkley, to the floor of the Louisiana Superdome on Sunday.

Two seasons ago, in Super Bowl 57, the Eagles constructed a 24-14 lead after three quarters but couldn’t quell a Kansas City rally. In his typical style, Mahomes guided his offense to 17 fourth-quarter points including the game-winning field goal with eight seconds remaining. Final score: Kansas City 38, Philadelphia 35.

This fully aligned Philly football machine is better than the last Eagles team that stood up to the Chiefs in the first Super Bowl between the teams.

I’ll get to the game prediction later on in this analysis, but here’s one early forecast: Kendrick Lamar will NOT open the Super Bowl halftime show with “Not Like Us.”

Let’s warm up by breaking down some competitive keys that should have a significant impact in determining the victor…

CHIEFS MUST CONFINE BARKLEY

Well, yeah. In his 19 games this season, including three postseason scrums, Barkley’s production is downright preposterous: 2,760 combined yards as a rusher or receiver, 20 total touchdowns, and 110 first downs.

During the Super Bowl Era, which began in the 1966 season, only one back has topped Barkley’s total yards from scrimmage in a full season that includes postseason action – Denver’s Terrell Davis, the Hall of Famer, who amassed 2,762 yards from scrimmage in the 1998 campaign. Barkley will move ahead of Davis during Sunday’s game.

Steve Spagnuolo – former head coach of the St. Louis Rams – has been tasked with the responsibility of neutralizing Barkley. Here are some pertinent facts on Spags, who became KC’s defensive coordinator before the 2019 season:

1. Spags has coached in 23 NFL postseason showdowns during his coordinator career, and his defenses for the Giants and Chiefs have allowed only one running back to compile 100+ yards rushing in a game. That was Marion Barber (Dallas) in the 2007 NFC playoffs. But let’s forget about that. No big deal. The Giants won the game.

2. Spagnuolo has found ways to roadblock great teams and great players before. The classic was the Giants’ massive upset of New England in the Super Bowl that capped the 2007 season. The Patriots were 17-0 coming into the game, but the Giants pulled it off despite being a 12.5-point underdog. The Patriots averaged 38.6 points that season, but Spags-arranged defense held Tom Brady and his playmakers to 14 points. And after averaging 411 yards offense per game, the pyrotechnic Patriots managed only 274 against the Spagnuolo attack dogs. That stunner is the top example of why Spagnuolo will have five Super Bowls triumphs to his credit as a defensive coordinator if Kansas City can prevail over Philadelphia.

3. In 18 postseason games as KC’s defensive chieftain, Spagnuolo’s tacklers haven’t allowed an opposing back to rush for 90 yards. And during his six seasons as KC’s defensive coordinator (regular season and playoffs) his unit has yielded a 100-yard rushing performance to a running back in only 13 percent of the games.

4. In last season’s Super Bowl victory, an overtime win over San Francisco, Kansas City corralled the 49ers’ excellent running back Christian McCaffery, who had 80 yards rushing on 22 carries for an average of 3.6 yards per run. McCaffrey caught eight passes in that one (including a TD reception) but the Chiefs did a good job of restricting a back who juked for 2,203 yards and 21 touchdowns during the 2023 season. That was no minor feat. Based on several important metrics, the Niners’ rushing attack was ranked No. 1 in the league in 2023, but Spagnuolo found a way to mitigate the damage. And two seasons ago, the Spags defense yielded only 3.6 yards per rush in their Super Bowl win over the Eagles.

5. Philly quarterback Jalen Hurts is an effective runner who posed a problem for the Chiefs two seasons ago when the teams competed in the Super Bowl. Hurts had 15 rushes for 70 yards and three touchdowns, and his designed runs flummoxed Kansas City. Will Spagnuolo have some adjustments ready? The Philadelphia running back posed no problem for KC, rushing 17 times for 45 yards. That team’s best back was Miles Sanders. With Barkley revving up in the backfield this time, Spagnuolo’s group has more to worry about. And though banged up a bit, Philly’s offensive line is probably the best in the NFL.

I don’t think Philadelphia’s coaching staff will be as dumb about the team’s run game the way the Bills were in the AFC Championships. The Spags defense couldn’t stop Buffalo running back James Cook, who scooted for 85 yards and two touchdowns on 13 carries. But Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady inexplicably stopped feeding the ball to Cook late in the game. I don’t think we’ll see Philly’s offensive coaches turn Barkley into a non-factor with the game on the line.

Here’s a stat that frames this Spags vs. Barkley matchup: a running back has reached the 90-yard rushing threshold in only one of the last nine Super Bowls including the last five in a row. In Super Bowl history, teams that have gotten at least 90 yards rushing by a running back are 23-10. And teams that had a 100-yard game by a RB are 17-5.

THE EAGLES: SMOTHER THE CHIEFS IN THE RED ZONE

This will be a huge factor in Super Bowl 59. I’ll lay it out for you.

By its normally high standards the Kansas City offense wasn’t particularly flashy or explosive this season, and so the traditional statistics like points per game and yards per game and yards per play aren’t dazzling. Far from it. But the Chiefs have excelled at putting together sustained drives this season. Their percentage of offensive possessions that invade the red zone was the second-best by an NFL offense this season. (The red zone, aka RZ, is that critical area inside the opponent’s 20-yard line.)

That said, cashing in has been frustrating for the Chiefs this season. Their rate of converting RZ opportunities into touchdowns (53.8%) is the lowest in Mahomes’ seven seasons.

Sunday the Chiefs will have to find a way to get through, or get around, the barricade set up by Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio factor. He’s an established red-zone specialist who makes it especially difficult for opponents to score touchdowns. This season the Eagles were the league’s sixth-best defense at limiting touchdowns in the RZ. And that’s been a hallmark of just about every defense structured by Fangio.

The conflict in red-zone territory – Fangio vs. Andy Reid – could determine the outcome Sunday. In eight career games against the Reid-Mahomes offense – including one playoff tilt – Fangio’s defense held the Chiefs to a RZ conversion touchdown rate of only 37 percent. This is really impressive, considering Kansas City’s profound red zone success (around 63%) against non-Fangio defenses during the Reid-Mahomes era.

And what about goal-to-go situations? When facing defenses that weren’t coordinated by Fangio, the Chiefs produced touchdowns at a rate of 75 percent. But with Fangio putting up resistance, Chiefs have landed in the end zone on only 38 percent of their goal-to-go chances.

Fangio’s defense could prevent Kansas City from getting red-zone touchdowns when the Reid–Mahomes offense was in peak form … but this 2024 Kansas City offense has labored to come up with RZ touchdowns. With that in mind, we can expect Reid to come up with some special red-zone plays from the secret playbook he brings out for special postseason occasions.

KANSAS CITY’S YARDS AFTER THE CATCH

This is another thing to watch on Sunday. In short: Unlike past seasons, Kansas City’s passing game lacks big-play explosiveness and relies on receivers rolling up yards after the catch. Here comes Fangio again. According to the superb NFL data analyst Warren Sharp, Fangio has set up his defenses to take away the deep ball and force the Chiefs to go with shorter throws – with defenders swarming to the receiver for a quick takedown.

As Sharp has explained, 58 percent of Mahomes’ total passing yards this season have come on yards after the catch (aka YAC.) Kansas City’s speedy rookie wide receiver, Xavier Worthy, has gained 62% of his receiving yards after making the catch. Problem: Philadelphia’s defense is No. 1 in the NFL at limiting YAC.

Sharp points out that in his last four games against a Fangio defense, Mahomes has averaged less than seven “air” yards per passing attempt. The Chiefs have settled for short throws, which is precisely what Fangio wanted. Mahomes has a modest total of 10 touchdown passes in eight matchups against the Fangio defense.

This isn’t just a Fangio thing. The Chiefs have played small ball all season. Mahomes has thrown 38% of his passes to the line of scrimmage or behind the line of scrimmage. That’s the second highest rate among NFL quarterbacks this season. I’m looking to see if the Chiefs make heavy use of “12” personnel – one running back with two tight ends. That could be effective at attacking the middle of the field that offers some operating room. And sets with two tight ends could bolster a bland KC running game that has been poor at generating explosive runs this season. And that’s glaring because the Chiefs played a schedule that had some of the easiest defenses in the league to run the ball against.

PRESSURING JALEN HURTS

Kansas City is outstanding at defending the pass, ranking No. 1 in the league at controlling the skies when facing Top-10 rated passing attacks.

The Eagles do an excellent job of getting the ball to their outside receivers – DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown – and the Chiefs have two of the league’s best cornerbacks in Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson. But A.J. Brown is physical and fast and can match up well against any corner. One thing the Eagles might try is moving Brown inside, to line up in the slot. The Chiefs won’t expect that, and Brown could be a matchup headache for KC.

But even with their elite offensive line, the Eagles will be challenged to repel Spagnuolo’s large volume of creative blitzes. He’ll get after quarterbacks with blitzes the Chiefs have never used in a game; his blitz packages are forever changing. Spags has a sensational feel for when to spring a brilliantly designed blitz that ambushes and confuses the O-line and quarterback.

Again, I turn to data shared by Warren Sharp.

– No quarterback has been sacked at a higher rate per blitz this season than Jalen Hurts. He’s taken 19 sacks on blitzes this season. When Hurts doesn’t take a sack on an offensive drive the Eagles are 6th in the NFL in points per possession. When Hurts takes a sack on a drive they’re 23rd in points per possession.

– But isn’t Hurts a nifty runner who can avoid incoming pass rushers? He’s nifty, yes. He can escape, yes. But Hurts often holds onto the ball too long, and so he doesn’t dodge sacks as well as assumed. Hurts ranks 6th among NFL quarterbacks in scramble yards but Baker Mayfield has more. Hurts has averaged about 18 yards per game on scrambles. Among NFL quarterbacks who started at least seven games this season, only three had a higher sack rate than Hurts. Spagnuolo obviously will have some exotic blitzes planned, and Hurts must get rid of the football quickly … or it will be a long and bruising evening for Philadelphia’s quarterback.

– Warren Sharp shared a telling statistic earlier this week, showing where Hurts is ranked among 37 NFL quarterbacks when pressured by the defense.

37 in success rate

37 in EPA per pass attempt

33 in sack rate

32 in yards per pass attempt.

– According to the relevant metrics, the Eagles have played the league’s easiest schedule this season in terms of the quality of the opponents’ pass defense. And pass defense is a Kansas City strength.

FINALLY, A PREDICTION

I see this game unfolding in one of two ways: (1) a more talented Philadelphia wins in a blowout, or (2) Kansas City emerges with another close-call victory, winning by a one-score margin.

I think the Eagles are the better all-around team, but that doesn’t matter against the Chiefs, who are a proven championship team with a championship DNA.

Mahomes has had one of his worst statistical seasons. Tight end Travis Kelce has been a subdued presence until recently. Doesn’t matter.

Kansas City’s best receiver, Rashee Rice, blew out his ACL and has been missing all year. Doesn’t matter.

The Chiefs have had major problems at offensive tackle, and Mahomes absorbed a career-high 42 sacks. Doesn’t matter.

Kansas City lost their best running back, Isaiah Pacheco, to injury for much of the season, and their defense got beat up by injuries. Doesn’t matter.

In points scored and yards gained, this was the lowest-ranked offense put forward by Reid-Mahomes in their seven seasons. Does not matter. matter.

What did the Chiefs do? They lost one game all season in games they were trying to win. The Chiefs have the NFL’s best quarterback, best head coach, and best defensive coordinator.

In their six seasons together (2019-2024), the Reid-Spags-Mahomes trio has the NFL’s top winning percentage (.780) in the regular season. They have the top winning percentage (.889) in the postseason. Their overall winning percentage in postseason and regular season combined is a ridiculous .797. No other team is even close to that.

The Chiefs are closers because of Mahomes, Reid and Spagnuolo. They win tight games. They erase late deficits with fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives. And Mahomes is the quarterback you want to be gripping the football in a one-score game late in the fourth quarter.

This is money time for Kansas City, a team that since 2019 is 2-0 in the wild-card round, 6-0 in the divisional round, 5-1 in the conference championship game, and 3-1 in the Super Bowl.

I respect the Eagles and see them as a serious threat to spoil Kansas City’s latest attempt to run the postseason table. I would not be surprised – at all – if the Eagles win. Hey, the undefeated heavyweight Mike Tyson was considered unbeatable until he lost to Buster Douglas. And the Eagles are a helluva lot better than Buster Douglas.

Depending on where you shop, Kansas City is either a one-point favorite – or a 1.5-point favorite – to win. And a lot of the smart, professional money is coming in late on the Eagles plus the points.

But after trying to talk myself into the Eagles all week, I just can’t do it. All because of Reid, Mahomes and Spagnuolo. Proven winners don’t always win, but Chiefs are more than just a proven winner in the Reid-Mahomes-Spags era. They’re one of the all-time greatest winners in NFL history. And I’m someone who believes that winning is a skill. It isn’t random. It isn’t luck. It has absolutely nothing to do with officiating, or any other conspiratorial nonsense being upchucked by whining diaper babies.

Saquon Barkley and Vic Fangio will probably ruin my investment, but I’ll go with Kansas City 26, Philadelphia 23.

Thanks for reading and enjoy your weekend and the game.

–Bernie

The post Bernie On Super Bowl 59: Keys To The Game, What To Watch For, And A Prediction. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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For the Cardinals to improve offensively in 2025, a lot of positive things must kick in to get the lineup rolling.

By now you’re familiar with the basic list of what we’d like to see in 2025:

– Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman get substantially better and live up to the hope and the hype. That starts by matching, then exceeding, their 2023 stats. I’d like to see them get off to a fast start and have a good first half – then go even higher after the All-Star break. Gorman has to get on top of four-seam fastballs again; his performance against that pitch was strong in 2023 but collapsed in ‘24. Walker has to launch more line drives and fly balls and avoid lunging at those low and away pitches.

– The Cardinals will not soil their trousers when hitting with runners in scoring position. They were historically bad in these pressure-packed assignments last season. I refuse to believe they will be that bad again in 2024. Part of the problem last year was poor batted-ball luck in their RISP at-bats; their average on balls in play in RISP scenarios should normalize in 2025.

– Alec Burleson will build on the several good months he put up in 2014 and won’t stall out in September. Last season the big man hit .202 with a .298 slugging percentage during the final month. Here’s an issue for Burleson: he likes to swing the bat, and last season he was overly aggressive by swinging at a career-high 56 percent of the pitches served to him. Problem is, Burly connects with a lot of pitches out of the strike zone, and that’s detrimental to his offense. Last season Burleson batted .311 with a .521 slugging percentage and 47 percent hard-hit rate against pitches in the strike zone. But when he made fair-ball contact on pitches out of the strike zone, Burly batted .184 with a .209 slug and a hard-hit rate of 29%. One other thing: I’m not sure why so many folks seem to believe it’s a good idea to play Burleson every day. Though we’re talking about a small sample, this left-handed hitter has a .209/.244/.288 major-league slash line vs. lefties. That said, if the Cardinals were actually serious about this so-called “reset,” I’d go along with the idea of giving Burly more at-bats vs. LHP.

– Lars Nootbaar will stay out of the infirmary and remain healthy enough to play 140+ games and make the most of it. I would like to see more of the kind of numbers that he generated in 2022. Noot had a .340 onbase percentage and .448 slug that season. Among hitters age 24 or younger in 2022, Nootbaar posted the 10th best slug, 11th highest OBP, and had the second-best walk rate. Nootbaar was good in 2023, and above average in 2024, but his best showing came in ‘22. And it wasn’t a fluke. He just has to stay in the lineup. His Statcast data — sorry that I insist on being so modern! — continues to be a positive indicator. Last season Nootbaar’s 49.5 percent hard-hit rate was on the top 9% of all major-league hitters. And as for plate discipline, Noot’s walk-rate (13.8%) ranked among the top 2% of MLB hitters. But again … the positive metrics won’t matter all that much if he’s rehabbing injuries instead of swinging the bat. A final point: among the Cardinals that still remain on the roster, only Willson Contreras has a higher wRC+ than Nootbaar vs. lefty pitchers among Cardinals that have at least 200 plate appearances against LH since 2022. Even though Nootbaar swings from the left side, he has above-average numbers against lefthanders.

– Ivan Herrera will receive at least 550 at-bats this season. Looking back to 2024, it’s disheartening to realize the Cardinals parked Herrera at Triple A Memphis from July 4 through Aug. 23. Good grief. Last season Herrera ranked ninth in the majors among hitters age 24 or younger with a 127 wRC+, meaning that he was 27 percent above league average offensively.

– Willson Contretras – who turns 33 in May – stays ahead of the aging curve and inflicts extensive damage with the higher of number of at-bats he’ll receive after shifting to first base. He’s a very, very important presence in the STL lineup and has to land a lot of punches. Among right-handed batters that have made at least 850 plate appearances over the past two seasons, Contreras ranks 6th in onbase percentage, is tied for 10th in wRC+ at 33 percent above league average offensively, ranks 11th in OPS and is 18th in slugging. Hopefully for Contreras and the Cardinals, he’ll have a lot more plate appearances than his 358 in his injury-torn 2024.

– St. Louis hitters will collectively punish left-handed pitching after posting a drab. 678 OPS against them last season. The ‘24 Cards were 10 percent below league average offensively when encountering lefties. This could be a challenge; in 2024 Paul Goldschmidt hammered LHP for an .838 OPS in his final season with the Cardinals. He was their best guy vs, lefties. The Cardinals lost a bouncer who could muscle the lefties, and will look to Contreras and Masyn Winn (and others) to compensate for Goldy’s absence.

– Brant Brown will be lauded for his impact and become the best hitting coach for the Cardinals since Mark McGwire. Brown was endorsed for the job by Skip Schumaker and Albert Pujols. That was good enough for me — though what am I thinking to attach credibility to Pujols and Schumaker instead of signing off on the angry spittle of hopelessly uninformed internet cowboys?

– After having a good rookie year offensively in 2024, Masyn Winn will ratchet up his offensive numbers in ‘25 and move forward. I’m not nitpicking Winn here; he really impressed as a 22-year old rookie. But the Statcast data reveals that he was in the bottom 15 percent of all MLB hitters in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, average exit velocity, and chase rate. He must take more walks. And Winn batted only .183 with a .250 slug and 29 percent strikeout rate against offspeed pitches. There’s so much to love about this dude, and it’s exciting to think about him getting better and better. I don’t think manager Oli Marmol does Winn any favors by batting him leadoff. I’d like to see a couple of high OBP guys take the first two spots in the lineup. Winn has real power potential. In 2024 season in which slugging percentage was way down across the majors, Winn slugged .423 before tailing off over the final month. Winn seemed a little tired in the final weeks, and that’s understandable considering his heavy load at shortstop combined with 637 plate appearances.

– Brendan Donovan will find the right balance between his onbase percentage skill and quest for more power. Fueled by a dandy 13 percent walk rate, Donovan had a .394 OBP as a rookie in 2022. But as his isolated power number increased in each of his last two seasons, his walk rate decreased. Donovan’s OBP dropped to .365 in 2023 and .342 in ‘24. And his OPS+ last year decreased to a career low 112, meaning that he was 12 percent above average. He’s been seeing fewer pitches. “Donny” found that balance late last season; in the final month he churned a terrific OBP (.420) and slug (.551.) That would be difficult to repeat but it showed that Donovan is capable of doing both things well: get on base at a high rate, and hit with more authority.

– Nolan Arenado: if he stays with the Cardinals, ‘Nado hopefully will reverse a negative trend that’s reduced his power. Compared to his career-best 2022 season, Arenado’s ground-ball rate increased 10 percent last year, and his fly-ball rate dropped 10 percent. To activate his pull-side power, Arenado has to get away from the ground game and get more lift in his swing. Yeah, it’s the simple.

– Center fielder Michael Siani will continue to hit balls out of the reach of the opposing-team fielders. In a 31-game stretch that began June 24 last season, the light-hitting Siani batted a robust .354, got on base 39 percent of the time, and inflated an .805 OPS. But was this real? Probably not. Siani had a preposterous .492 batting average on balls in play during his hot streak, and that isn’t sustainable. But a fella can hope, right?

— I’d like to see Victor Scott II get a meaningful opportunity in center field but I don’t know if that’s in the plans. Marmol is a Siani guy. And there’s also the chance of Nootbaar having more games in center field. But in a legitimate “reset” season, Scott would be in the mix for a helluva lot more at-bats than he’ll likely receive. And while manager Oli Marmol has said he wants to have a more aggressive running team that can steal more bases in 2025 … well … Victory Scott was tied for third among all MLB players last season in average sprint speed. And he had a superb track record of successfully stealing bases in the minors.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: What Must Happen For The Cardinals’ Offense To Improve In 2025? appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE WATCH LIST

With the Cardinals going with a “play the kids” season in 2025, the emphasis on youth and discovery will be front and center in the way we watch St. Louis baseball in the new year.

If the Cardinals are indeed serious about this, then we will see some of their young players receive a more extensive opportunity to perform and establish or enhance their value going forward beyond 2025.

A few quick things about this:

— I’m not convinced we’ll see a legitimate competition for playing time. For example, manager Oli Marmol seems to have already determined that Michael Siani will be the starting center fielder next season. Where does that leave Victor Scott II? Is this really a competition in the truest sense of the word? On the other side of this, Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has made references to Andre Pallante getting a chance to compete for a slot in the starting rotation. Given that Pallante had the rotation’s best ERA from the time he moved in (May 29) until the end of the 2024 season, what does he have to prove? He proved his worthiness for the role last season. And why should Pallante or any younger pitcher have to “earn” a rotation spot when the Cardinals will simply default to the usual position of going with Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz just because they are veterans who will be paid a combined $28+ million in 2025? This is the opposite of competition.

— This part has been overlooked, but the Cardinals actually began a youth movement in 2024. Last season, rookie St. Louis position players ranked second among the 30 teams in the number of games played and plate appearances by rookies. Compared to other rookie groups, shortstop Masyn Winn and other Cardinal rookies were collectively tied for eighth in home runs, fifth in RBIs, fifth in stolen bases and first in runs scored. In 2024, only one major-league team (Milwaukee) benefited from more Wins Above Replacement Value (WAR) from rookies than St. Louis.

— Along the same lines, the STL position players age 24 or younger collectively ranked ninth in WAR in this age category among the 30 teams. So the youth brigade isn’t a new sensation for 2025. It will be a continuation of something the Cardinals had already started.

— “Play the kids” sounds good, and I have no objections to the premise or the plan. As someone who has spent the last two years hollering about the decline of the Cardinals’ outdated and intelligence-bankrupted player development operation and minor-league system when most media remained silent on this subject, I’d be a phony and a hypocrite to blast the Cardinals for finally taking on a project that is long overdue and absolutely necessary.

— The last thing I want to see is the Cardinals overpaying to buy more average/mediocre veteran talent that makes a minor impact (if that.) Having said that, I want to see the Cardinalls actually follow through on their “play the kids” plan. That will be determined when we see the allocation of meaningful roles for young pitchers and position players. I’m not into slogans. I want to see proof of “play the kids” being a top priority instead of a marketing pitch.

OK.

Now that I’ve gotten my preliminary thoughts out of the way, it’s onto my Watch List. I’m going to go through this, player-by-player – 25 of them – and offer an assessment on each individual. I left a few out of this exercise – no offense, Chris Roycroft – but there is plenty of time to get these fellas covered at a later date.

Shall we begin?

1. Ryan Helsley. He’s coming off a career-best year, peaking for a franchise-record 49 saves in 2024. That was just one statistical measure that made Helsley special. He can become a free agent after the 2025 season. The optimal time to trade him is this offseason; the contending team that acquires Helsley can have him closing out games for a full season. Helsley’s value will never be higher than it is right now. Over the last three seasons, Helsley ranks second among MLB relievers in WAR, third in ERA, and fifth in Win Probability Added. I know that some of you will say, “the Cardinals can always trade him at the 2025 deadline,” which is true. And he certainly would command considerable interest by teams that are desperate for a closer. However … Helsley’s trade value would be reduced to NOTHING should he suffer a serious injury before the ‘25 trade deadline. That’s the risk. Best to deal him ASAP and cash in on an active market of closer-shopping teams.

2. Willson Contreras: He’s the best hitter and a strong candidate to take over a leadership role and moving him to first base was a smart and important step, simply because it will mean a lot more at-bats for the best bat on the team. He wants to be here to help this team through a transition. That used to be an admired quality in a player, but too many of the BFIB rip this man. It’s bewildering and embarrassing.

3. Nolan Arenado: if he isn’t traded, the hold on tight. He’ll be 34 in the spring. In his age-related decline phase, Arenado’s slugging percentage has dropped from .533 to .394 in two seasons. His OPS+ – 50 percent above league average in 2022 – was down to one percent above average in 2024. He won’t be happy in a rebuilding phase. And you don’t want a negative and possibly corrosive presence around so many young Cardinals in 2025. You don’t want a crab in the clubhouse. You want a new leadership group among current Cardinals to take over, and that generational shift won’t happen with Arenado still around. Trading Arenado would be best for everyone concerned.

4. Sonny Gray: I appreciate that he wants to stay with the Cardinals, but let’s see if Sonny still feels this way later this offseason … if, say, Atlanta comes calling with an attractive trade proposal. Gray would be a valuable trade piece. If Gray remains with St. Louis, the Cardinals will pay him a guaranteed $60 million over the next two seasons. Gray pitched well in a number of ways last season – high strikeout rate, very good WAR, and an impressive fielding independent ERA. But he pitched to a 4.81 ERA in his final 13 starts of the season. And on the road in 2024, Gray was pounded for a 5.20 ERA and a glaring number of home runs (16) in 72 and ⅔ innings. Depending on how Gray pitches this season, he could be a coveted trade candidate at the 2025 trading deadline. It’s all up to Gray, who has full no-trade protection he can use to control what’s next for him.

5. Ivan Herrera: He should be the No. 1 catcher, period. His offensive talent and potential is significant, and that can’t be taken for granted. He’s not as refined at calling games as Pedro Pages – but is getting better. And I trust that the manager, coaching staff and pitchers will band together to help Herrera throw out more base stealers. This is a problem that extends beyond the catcher’s actions.

So why am I geeked about Herrera? My goodness, 2025 is supposed to be about “let the kids play” and Herrera is the best example of doing just that. Here’s why …

* Last season Herrera was one of 48 major-league hitters, age 24 or younger, to have at least 250 plate appearances. And it’s important to note that Herrera had the fewest PA (259) of the 248 batters. But despite having limited opportunities, Herrera ranked 25th in the age group in WAR (2.1). That’s a robust WAR figure for only 72 games.

* Among the 48 hitters in this 24-or-younger classification, Herrera ranked third in batting average (.301), third in onbase percentage (.372), eighth wRC+ (27% above league average), ninth in OPS (.800) and 16th in slugging percentage (.428.)

* As fantasy-baseball analyst Eric Cross pointed out, last season there were only five big-league rookies that had a 75 percent contact rate or better and a hard-hit rate of 40% or higher. (Minimum 250 plate appearances.) The five were Jackson Merrill, Wyatt Lankford, Jackson Chourio, Andy Pages and Ivan Herrera.

Hopefully, someone who actually understands just how impressive all of this is for a young hitter will post a huge sign in Marmol’s office that has the words PLAY IVAN HERRERA! in huge block letters. If Herrera doesn’t get a heavy load of at-bats in 2025, then the “play the kids” initiative is a joke.

6. Brendan Donovan: More than any Cardinal position player that’s been a key part of the team for the past three seasons, Donovan is poised to become a team leader and give the Cardinals an overdue remix of the clubhouse culture. Donovan isn’t a puppy; he’ll turn 28 in January. He’s just a really good player – both offensively and defensively – and no Cardinal grasps the finer points of baseball like the savvy Donovan. With Paul Goldschmidt gone and Arenado (maybe) on the way out, it’s Donovan’s time to lead.

7. Erick Fedde: He has a season left before free agency, and the Cardinals will probably get some calls about him this winter. They should listen. If St. Louis isn’t in shape to contend, and this is a “play the kids” year, then there’s logic in trading Fedde depending on the quality of the offers that come in. What’s the point of renting this Scott Boras client for 2025, only to lose him to free agency? It makes sense to move Fedde for the right price in return. This is an example of how a “play the kids” season can help set up the Cardinals for the future. It isn’t about contending in 2025. It’s about contending in 2026, 2027, 2028, etc. And flipping a guy like Fedde fits the longer-range objective.

8. Masyn Winn: What a wonderful rookie season. He won the Fielding Bible Award for the best defensive shortstop in baseball. He accrued more Wins Above Replacement (Baseball Reference version) than any major-league rookie in ‘24. He led MLB shortstops in defensive runs saved. Winn played a lot of ball at age 22 – 150 games, 1,285 innings at short – and ran low on fuel late in the season, batting .188 over his final 22 games. But that was all part of building a career as he matures physically. I wasn’t a fan of Winn batting leadoff because of his poor walk rate and onbase percentage (.290) as the No. 1 hitter. As a team, the 2024 Cardinals had their worst leadoff onbase percentage (.292) by the franchise in a season since 1917. But don’t blame Winn; the decision to bat him leadoff was all on the manager.

9. Michael Siani: this graceful, range-roving center fielder was among the best defenders in baseball for 2024 – and all of the metrics back that up. Siani, who turns 26 next July, wasn’t much of a hitter in the minors but started to raise his offensive performance in 2024. During a 37-game stretch before Siani went out with a strained oblique on Aug. 3, the left-handed swinger batted .323 with a .362 OBP and .414 slugging percentage. He was out of synch after returning from injury in early September and gets a mulligan for that. But Siani’s upturn at the plate made us wonder if there’s more to him than defense and speed. Best stat on Siani: the 2024 Cardinals were 55-43 when he started, and 70-54 when he played.

10. Victor Scott II: The center fielder, who doesn’t have Siani’s experience, with nearly 1,200 fewer plate appearances than Siani in the minors and majors combined. Scott has more upside in speed and power and is the best base stealer in the organization. He improved defensively late in the 2024 season and finished the year with a plus rating in Fielding Run Value and Outs Above Average. Scott’s bat showed some real sting over his final 22 games of the season; he hit for average, drew walks, and struck pitches with authority. I just don’t know if Scott will get a fair shake at competing with Siani for the starting center fielder gig in 2025. And I don’t think it’s best to keep him in a bench role in the majors instead of having him play every day in Triple A. Scott has a good future … but I don’t have a lot of confidence in the Cardinals to bring him along to fruition. You may have noticed that the Cardinals specialize in screwing up young outfielders.

11. Jordan Walker: He had a promising rookie season in 2023. There were a few bumps along the way, but as a 21-year old rookie Walker hit .276 with a .342 onbase percentage and .445 slug. His OPS+ was 13 percent above league average. The Cardinals failed Walker with a preposterously poor plan to turn him into a right fielder – not giving him enough time or instruction at the new spot in the minors, then rushing him to the big leagues. His 2024 season was an all-around disaster. Confidence: gone. And now we’ll see if the St. Louis organization learned anything. If he finally gets the proper full-time coaching, instruction, patience and personal support to regain his confidence, Walker still has the talent to be special. And he doesn’t turn 23 until May. The 2025 “play the kids” campaign will largely go down as a failure if Walker and Nolan Gorman continue to unravel.

12. Nolan Gorman: Sigh. Through June 4 last season, Gorman slugged .508, put up an .829 OPS and had homered every 14 at-bats. He still was striking out too much, but the Cardinals could live with it because of his power supply. But from June 5 through Aug. 20 – before he was demoted to Triple A Memphis – Gorman batted .170, slugged a famished .219, staggered to a .511 OPS, homered every 36.4 at-bats, and struck out at a ghastly rate of 40.3 percent. How will the Cardinals go about the massive task of rebuilding Gorman’s plate approach and swing mechanics? Perhaps the new hitting coach (Brant Brown) will help. But metaphorically speaking, it may require an entire village to raise Gorman from the ground. He’ll be 25 in May. It’s too soon to give up on him. The people out there shrieking for the Cardinals to trade Gorman now will be the first people shrieking when he hits 39 homers for his next major-league team. This insanity can’t go on. But I repeat: there’s still time. Or maybe Chaim Bloom will just fire everybody a year from now.

13. Lars Nootbaar: When he plays, he’s good … often very good. And the more Nootbaar plays, the better he gets. His swing is rhythm and timing. But over the past two seasons the fragile Nootbaar has missed 103 in-season days because of five stays on the Injured List. Because of these various infirmities, Nootbaar has taken 100+ plate appearances in a month only three times in his last 11 months of baseball. Too much sitting and mending. Not enough hitting and fielding and elevating his team. The package is there: high onbase percentage, above-average slugging capability, a plus defender, good base runner, excellent contact skills, superb plate discipline, and an electric energy. But Nootbaar has averaged only 104 games started over the last two seasons and needs to get that up to about 140. He’ll be entering his age-27 season in 2025.

14. Alec Burleson: The big guy was rolling to a breakout season in 2024 but faded down the stretch, and was especially brutal with a .202 average and .226 slugging percentage over the final month. Rewinding back to early August, Burleson homered just twice in his final 173 at-bats of the season and slumped to a .632 OPS. I don’t know what to expect from Burleson early on in 2025, but he might have to reestablish himself. There are openings for playing time – left field, DH and some shifts at first base – but it’s up to Burleson to make the most of it. He’ll turn 26 a couple of days before Thanksgiving.

15. Thomas Saggese: The rookie infielder had the scouts buzzing and chirping during the recent Arizona Fall League season. And no wonder. In 18 games Saggese cranked a .391 average, padded a ridiculous .524 onbase percentage and slugged .594. Wind him up and let him go. Saggese is the epitome of the “play the kids” project. He can be kept busy at three infield spots, but is best at second base. It’s probably smart to give him some Grapefruit League time in left field. The future is almost now.

16. Luken Baker: you love him, and there’s nothing I can say that will decrease the fondness. The large right-handed slugger pulverizes left-handed pitching, and that’s a solid asset for the bench. Baker clobbered lefties for a .722 slugging percentage for the big club late last season … but in only 22 plate appearances. There won’t be a first-base platoon in St. Louis that includes his name, so I’m not sure why folks keep bringing that up. I hope Baker powers up in spring training to give the Cardinals a reason to find a place for him.

17. Pedro Pages: There’s a lot to like and respect, but the local media – with Marmol’s endorsement – has turned Pages into a combination of Jim Sundberg and Bill Freehan … with maybe some Molina brothers genetics mixed in. Let’s try and take it down a notch or two, OK? Y’all gonna be falling in love with Jimmy Crooks anyway.

18. Andre Pallante: Let’s revisit what I mentioned early in this column. To fill a void caused by injuries, Pallante was placed in the starting rotation on May 29 and made 20 starts the rest of the way. Here are the earned-run averages by STL starting pitchers from May 29 through the close of the season:

Pallante, 3.56
Fedde, 3.72
Lance Lynn, 4.20
Gray, 4.41
Gibson, 4.64
Mikolas, 5.19

Oh, but Pallante has to earn a rotation spot in 2025? And Mikolas and Steven Matz and some others can just walk into spring training and get handed one of the five spots? OK. But it’s going to be a wide-open competition, Miklasz! Play the kids! Pallante, 26, isn’t a kid … but you get the point.

19. Michael McGreevy: the former first-round draft choice, took some time to develop, but pitching coach Dusty Blake recommended some meaningful changes and McGreevy made an excellent impression in limited opportunities with the big club in 2024, crafting a 1.96 ERA in four appearances that included three starts. If this is a “play the kids” season, then why in the hell would McGreevy, 24, be excluded?

20. Matthew Liberatore: he can be a wipeout lefty reliever if the Cardinals would just leave him alone and quit moving him around.

21. Ryan Fernandez: He has the stuff of a good closer. As a rookie in 2024, Fernandez dominated hitters with his slider, holding them to a .182 batting average with a 41% whiff-swing rate and 36.4 percent strikeout rate. If Helsley is traded, Fernandez could be his successor.

22. JoJo Romero: I like the lefty reliever. Overall he did a heck of a job last season. But … after owning hitters with a 31 percent strikeout rate in the opening month of the 2024 season, Romero had an 18.3% strikeout rate the rest of the way and was rocked for an average of 1.4 home runs per nine innings. Can he rebound?

23. John King: Not a strikeout puncher, this lefty reliever is underrated. In 56 appearances last season he had a career-best 2.85 ERA and neutralized hitters from both sides of the plate with an outstanding 62 percent ground-ball rate. Sounds like a keeper for 2025.

24. Zack Thompson: I don’t have much to say about him. Because I have absolutely no idea what the Cardinals have planned next as they try to do whatever it is they are trying to do with the 19th overall pick in the 2019 MLB draft. Thompson is a lefthander, of course. Maybe the Cardinals will tell Zack to forget about all of that and become a righthander?

25. Quinn Mathews: This exciting, abundantly talented No. 1 St. Louis prospect isn’t here yet. But the left-handed starting pitcher with a sharp mind and a dynamic arsenal will be here at some point in 2025. And his arrival to the majors will reassure the Cardinals and their fans: take a look, there are better days ahead.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing. Here’s the link: @TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: An Early 2025 ‘Watch List’ Of 25 St. Louis Cardinals Players. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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When the three finalists for 2024 National League Rookie of the Year were announced on Monday, Masyn Winn didn’t make the cut.

The Cardinals’ rookie shortstop wasn’t on the list. Voting members of the Baseball Writers Association gave the most support to corner outfielder Jackson Chourio (Brewers), starting pitcher Paul Skenes (Pirates), and center fielder Jackson Merrill (Padres.)

I have mixed feelings about this. The highly impressive and intimidating Skenes will win the award, and the results won’t be close. Initially a shortstop, Merrill had an outstanding season after San Diego manager Mike Shildt installed him in center field to get his bat in the lineup. Chourio is an exciting talent who shook off a slow start and lived up to his top-tier prospect hype.

That said, Winn did enough to make it to the top three in a more normal year. Other notable candidates that didn’t make it to the final three were third baseman Joey Ortiz (Brewers), super-utility asset Tyler Fitzgerald (Giants) and starting pitcher Shota Iamanaga (Cubs.) Yoshinobu Yamamato (Dodgers) pitched great but was limited to 90 innings because of a triceps injury.

Winn’s candidacy was legitimate. This dynamic 22-year-old established plenty of credentials while playing 150 games for the Cardinals.

There are two different versions of Wins Above Replacement. One by FangGraphs (fWAR) and the other from Baseball Reference (bWAR). The differences come down to how each site evaluates defense. FanGraphs uses Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), and Baseball Reference goes with Defensive Runs Saved (DRS).

In FanGraphs WAR, Winn (3.6) came in fourth behind Merrill (5.9), Skenes (4.3) and Chourio (3.9). But the Baseball Reference formula had Skenes (5.9) on top, followed by Winn (4.9), Merrill (4.4) and Chourio (3.8).

A case can be made for Winn over Chourio. Though Chourio played excellent defense for the Brewer in left field and right field, the shortstop position is significantly more important and demanding. But Chourio was superior to Winn offensively and received a lot more attention than Winn. That made a difference in the vote.

But here is a list of Winn’s performance attributes:

1. Not only did Winn lead NL rookie position players in bWAR; he also finished tied for sixth among all NL position player behind Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers), Matt Chapman (Giants), Francisco Lindor (Mets), Ketel Marte (Diamondbacks) and Elly De La Cruz (Reds.) WInn and William Contreras (Brewers) were tied for sixth.

2. Winn led all major-league shortstops in Defensive Runs Saved (14). He led all MLB rookies in Fielding Runs, assists, defensive WAR and defensive range.

3. In addition to leading all major-league rookies in defensive WAR, Winn was No. 2 among big-league rookies in offensive WAR. I don’t know. When you are first in defense and second in offense turned in by all big-league rookies, shouldn’t that make you one of the three Rookie of the Year finalists in the NL?

4. Winn was a National League finalist for the Gold Glove at shortstop but didn’t win the prize. He did, however, receive the more meaningful Fielding Bible Award for being the best defensive shortstop in the majors.

“Winn won his first Fielding Bible Award in his second MLB season,” Sports Info Solutions wrote. “He is the seventh different shortstop to win the Award in the last seven years … Winn was MLB’s premier shortstop when it came to turning double plays. In fact, his 6 Double Play Runs Saved is tied with Andrelton Simmons for the most in a season by a shortstop since Runs Saved was first tracked in 2003.”

5. Winn led all NL rookie position players in Wins Above Average. He led NL rookies in doubles, was second in hits, third in total bases, third in extra-base hits, and tied for fourth in home runs (15.) No NL rookie reached base more than Winn in 2024. No NL rookie had more plate appearances than Winn. His durability provided extra value.

For the season Winn batted .267 with a .314 onbase percentage and .416 slug. His numbers could have been higher but Winn had a quiet final month of the season at the plate.

My friend and “Seeing Red” podcast partner Will Leitch wrote this about Winn at MLB.com: “There’s a lot of uncertainty right now in St. Louis, with a front office transition and talk of trading some of the team’s veterans. But one player it knows it will be building around — and one of the primary reasons the Cardinals did improve by 12 games from 2023 to ‘24 — is Winn, who established himself as the shortstop in St. Louis for many years to come.”

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing. Here’s the link: @TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: Cardinals Shortstop Masyn Winn Won’t Be The NL Rookie of the Year, But His Best Is Yet To Come. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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Drew Pyne. Oh, my. Missouri’s No. 2 quarterback wasn’t just good in the second half of Saturday’s cuckoo 30-23 win over Oklahoma. He was great. Terrific. And perfect by some measures. On the surface, we can look at Pyne’s second-half passing yards total (120) and shrug. That’s nice. But what is so special about it?

I can elaborate.

* In the first half, the Missouri offense was boring and ineffective. Starting in place of the injured starter Brady Cook, Pyne had minus 4 yards passing in the first quarter and 27 yards passing in the second quarter for a grand total of 27 yards through the air before halftime. Little action, no excitement, and a 9-3 deficit for MU. But this is also why Pyne’s second half was so fantastic. Given how Saturday’s game started off, we could have seen Pyne lose his confidence, fall apart and lapse into terrible inaccuracy. But Pyne did the exact opposite of that, and this is exactly what Mizzou and fans hoped to see. And to make a comeback for a win over the Sooners, this was also what Missouri NEEDED to see from Pyne. Failure was not an option. Mediocrity was not an option. Excellence was required.

* In the second half, Pyne completed 8 of 16 passes for 120 yards and three touchdowns. But that 50 percent completion rate doesn’t reflect how well he played. Pyne was under pass-rush pressure on 55 percent of his dropbacks and got sacked three times. But nothing unnerved him. Pyne put 69.2 percent of his throws on target, and that was the best second-half (and OT) accuracy displayed by a Mizzou quarterback this season when facing a power-conference defense. And Oklahoma has a fine defense.

• In the second half only 10.5 percent of Mizzou’s passing plays were graded as a “Bust” by Sports Info Solutions. But that isn’t just a QB stat; busts can happen because of shaky pass protection, dropped passes, receivers running the wrong routes, and any number of factors. But yes, it also reflects on the quarterback, and Pyne played a clean second half with few obvious mistakes. Pyne had a good 42.1 percent rate of “Positive” passing plays. And his big-play rate – 31.6% – was very good. Pyne’s final two touchdown zips of the game – to tight end Brett Norfleet and wideout Theo Wease – were precise and precious.

* Pyne was at his best on third-down passing attempts in the second half, connecting on 4 of 5 attempts for 64 yards and two touchdowns. Despite being pressured on 44 percent of his third-down dropbacks, Pyne had an 80 percent completion rate … but it was even better than that. On those five third-down throws, Pyne had perfect ratings – as in 100% – for on-target balls, and catchable balls. And his passer rating on those third-down throws (second half) was the highest score a quarterback can get. Perfect.

* Sports Info Solutions has a proprietary quarterback metric known as IQR. It builds on the traditional passer rating formula by adjusting the value of a quarterback’s performance that’s independent of results outside of his control such as dropped passes, dropped interceptions, throwaways, etc. Against Oklahoma, Pyne’s IQR of 125.8 was the best by a Missouri quarterback in the second half of a game this season. The previous high score was Brady Cook’s second-half 96.5 IQR against Vanderbilt. That included MU’s victorious overtime session. And Pyne topped Cook’s best second-half performance (vs. power-conference defenses) by 29.3 percent. And as I noted, his third-down throws after halftime produced a perfect IQR score.

LET’S CALL A TIMEOUT

And dive into Mizzou’s chances of snatching one of the 12 spots in the first-ever national college football playoff tournament. Head coach Eli Drinkwitz got a lot of attention after the Oklahoma victory by saying his Tigers were still in the playoff race. But are they?

Technically yes.

Mathematically, yes.

Realistically, no.

ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) gives Missouri an 8.9 percent chance to land in the tournament. That probability is higher than I would have guessed. Based on the FPI update, as of Monday 20 teams have a better shot at the playoffs than Mizzou.

That includes seven SEC teams. In order of probability, here is a look at the top eight SEC playoff hopefuls:

– Texas, 81.4 percent.
– Alabama, 75.7%
– Georgia, 73.9%
– Tennessee, 73.6%
– Ole Miss, 60.9%
– Texas A&M, 14.3%
– South Carolina, 13.6%
– Missouri, 8.9%

The FPI has Missouri at No. 25 in the nation, but that puts the Tigers behind eight SEC rivals: Alabama (1), Texas (2), Ole Miss (5), Georgia (6), Tennessee (9), South Carolina (14), Texas A&M (15) and LSU (16.)

In Bill Connelly’s new SP+ metrical rankings, Missouri is higher at No. 17 nationally, which looks pretty good … well, at least until you look closer and realize seven SEC teams are above the Tigers: Texas (2), Ole Miss (4), Alabama (5), Tennessee (9), Texas A&M (13), LSU (14) and South Carolina (16.)

Going into Week 12, Mizzou is one of seven SEC teams that can finish the regular season at 10-2, along with Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas and Texas A&M. The six all landed in the CFP selection committee’s top 16 last week but there will be some movement when the new listing is released Tuesday night.

In the new 12-team Playoff Era a team can remain in the playoff safari with two losses … and Missouri has two losses … but just because Mizzou is 7-2, it does NOT mean they’re on solid ground. Nope. MU has managed to hang on, which is all that they can do after getting mauled by a combined 75-10 score in beatdowns by Texas A&M and Alabama.

To keep dreaming, Mizzou must win out. Accordingly the FPI gives the Tigers a 14.1 percent chance to defeat their three remaining regular-season opponents – South Carolina on the road, Mississippi State on the road and Arkansas at home.

Missouri can’t lose on Saturday at South Carolina. In their last four games the Gamecocks lost at Alabama by two points then rolled to three straight wins over Oklahoma, Texas A&M and Vandy by an average margin of 23.6 points.

Though SC is 6-3 overall and 4-3 in the conference, Shane Beamer’s team has emerged as one of the hottest in the nation. The Gamecocks moved back into the AP top 25 this week at No. 23, one spot ahead of Mizzou.

Drew Pyne and Missouri’s offense will go against one of the most outstanding defenses in power-conference ball. According to the Sports Info Solutions defensive metric, and against power-conference offenses, the Gamecocks are No. 2 among the 69 power conference teams in pass defense, No. 2 in pass rush, and No. 18 against the run.

The opening line installed South Carolina as a 12 and ½ point favorite over Mizzou.

“Look, South Carolina isn’t going to make the Playoff this season,” wrote Matt Hinton at Saturday Down South. “The Gamecocks already have 3 losses and are short on statement wins outside of their victory against Texas A&M a couple of weeks ago. But boy, this looks like a super dangerous team for the remainder of the year. The defense has been there all season, but the offense has really come alive in the past couple of weeks. South Carolina has now averaged more than 7 yards per play offensively in back-to-back games. The Gamecocks host a banged-up Missouri team on Saturday night in what could be a blowout.”

If you want to make a case for Missouri finding a path to the playoff, you should probably hold off until we see how the Tigers handle Saturday’s rugged assignment at South Carolina. Unless Mizzou pulls off the upset, the playoff talk will subside and turn silent.

That wouldn’t change Missouri’s big-picture outlook. The Tigers are 18-4 in their last 22 games, and 20-5 in their previous 25 contests. Including the final poll of 2023 and the preseason poll for 2024, the Mizzou program has been nationally ranked in 21 of the last 22 polls put out by the Associated Press. And MU has been included among the top 10 nationally in eight of the last 14 AP polls.

This type of sustained success is rare for Mizzou football, and I don’t forget that. I won’t take it for granted. But playoff fever is intense, and it is reshaping how college football fans and media judge every team. Mizzou has reached a higher level within the college football industrial complex. But the new goal is reaching the playoffs. And Missouri is still looking up and trying to climb.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

The post Bernie On Mizzou Football: Hello, Drew Pyne! Can Mizzou Win At South Carolina And Keep Hope Alive? appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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BERNIE BITS

1. TRACKING THE BLUES: For the most part the St. Louis Blues have been resilient this season. They’ve displayed admirable gumption while pulling out some close wins in games that could have gone either way. The boys have made some nice comebacks, but that wouldn’t be necessary if they didn’t have so many slow starts to fall behind so often. And as time goes on, we’re seeing some alarming developments since their best player, center Robert Thomas, went down with a serious ankle injury on Oct. 22.

The Blues deserved plenty of attaboys for winning their first game with Thomas out of the lineup, going on the road to blister Toronto 5-1. Ah, but since then the Blues have dropped four of their last six games, getting outscored by 10 goals and banking only one goal in 17 power-play opportunities.

It all adds up to 7-7 on the season, but we’re witnessing some alarming developments including the knee injury to the talented young defenseman Philip Broberg. He joined Thomas for a lengthy stay on injured reserve.

– During their 2-4 skid the Blues have been outscored 18-11 at five-on-five play. Scoring goals has become increasingly difficult for this team.

– For the season, the Blues are averaging 2.64 goals per game at all strengths. It’s early, and perhaps we’ll see the offense perk up before Thomas returns … whenever that will be. But for what it’s worth, the current average of 2.64 goals per game would be tied for the ninth lowest by a Blues team in 57 seasons of hockey.

– Through their first 14 games the Blues have converted only 4 of 34 power-play setups. But it’s actually worse than that, because the team yielded two shorthanded goals while operating with the man advantage. So their power-play net result is a pitiful plus-two. The team has gone 0 for 12 in its last dozen power plays. Their overall PP success rate ranks 31st in the NHL.

– During this 2-4 downturn, defenseman Colton Parayko has pumped in four goals. That’s excellent. Of course. But here’s the problem: twenty other Blues’ skaters have played during the last six games – and those 20 players have scored four goals … combined.

– Coach Drew Bannister continues to use Pavel Buchnevich at center, and let’s be candid here: this is turning into a disaster. During the team’s 2-4 slide, the Blues have been outscored 9-2 with Buchnevich on the ice at five-on-five, and outscored 11-3 with him at even strength. In the last six games Buchnevich has two assists and has won only 11 of 55 faceoffs at even strength for a horrendous 18.5 percent success rate. For the season, Buchnevich has won only 31 percent of his draws. Please make it stop.

– Jordan Kyrou is doing the enigmatic air-head thing. His into the maddening cycle of making sweet plays, only to ruin the whole damn thing with his mystifyingly careless giveaways. Just for kicks, I looked up the definition of Coach Killer and spotted this particular explanation: “Any dumb or accidental action that causes an enormous letdown, especially if it occurs at a critical time.” Yep, that’s what Kyrou did late in Thursday’s 4-2 loss to Utah. Kyrou tied the game with 6:31 remaining, then tried to get cute and turned the puck over to set up Utah’s winning goal.

I could speak of additional miscreants but that’s enough negativity for the day.

LGB, dammit.

2. THE KC CHIEFS, MAKING SAVES: Our state’s National Football League entity is 8-0 this season and have won 14 in a row (including postseason) since Dec. 31 of last season. Coach Andy Reid’s team had many chances to lose games along the way … but are stubbornly resistant to the concept of defeat. During this 14-game winning streak, Kansas City has clawed for 11 wins by a one-score margin. That includes two overtime triumphs, four wins by three points or fewer, and five victories by a margin of five points or less.

It sort of helps to have Patrick Mahomes at quarterback. In his team’s 14-0 run, Mahomes has jolted opponents with four comebacks in the fourth quarter and five game-winning drives. And this is being done with the usual injury-related chaos that wipes out receiver after receiver to limit Mahomes’ options. But as just about always (cliche incoming!) Mahomes finds a way.

Combining the regular season and postseason, the Chiefs are 97-25 (.795) in games started by Mahomes. He’s already won three Super Bowls and is pitching for No. 4. If Mahomes can keep doing what he does better than anybody, the Chiefs can become the first team of the Super Bowl Era to win three consecutive Vince Lombardi Trophies. Mahomes’ career postseason record is 15-3. His regular-season winning percentage (.788) is the best in NFL history among quarterbacks that have started at least 100 games.

The other star of the Kansas City championship-hunting safari is defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. He’s had some holes to fill in the secondary, and the Chiefs have been vulnerable in some areas … but that hasn’t slowed the Spags defense. Not much, anyway. The Chiefs rank fourth in the league for fewest points yielded (18.4) per game, are sixth in fewest yards allowed (5.1) per play, and have surrendered only 3.7 yards per rushing attempt, which ranks third.

3. CARDINALS CATCHING, REVISITED: I wrote extensively on this yesterday, but I wanted to follow up on the Cardinals’ decision to move Willlson Contreras from catcher to first base in 2025. He’ll also get plenty of swings as a DH. I like the move, but there is one short-term concern: Contreras has a superior arm, a solid pop time, and a positive history of throwing out base stealers.

In 2023, under the new rules that make it much easier to steal bases, Contreras took out 25 percent of the runners that tried him. That was well above the MLB average. And this past season Contreras had an above-average 23% throw-out rate. His right arm can neutralize a running game.

What about the younger Cardinal catchers? Last season Pedro Pages was just below average at 19%. Ivan Herrera — frankly — was awful, catching only 7% of thieves that sought to take advantage of him. Herrera must improve there … and it sure would help if he had the benefit of meaningful coaching. It would help if the pitchers tried to do a better job of holding runners. I want Herrera to play a lot in 2025 for two seasons: (A) his bat is very good and highly capable of generating power and a high onbase percentage, and (B) he’s shown improvement in other areas of catching.

Last season Herrera had a positive grade on framing and the best called-strike rate among STL’s three catchers last All three catchers were above average in blocking pitches — though Herrera wasn’t as successful as Pages and Contreras at blocking “tough” chances according to Statcast.

On the final scorecard for 2024, here’s how the three catchers came out in the Fielding Run Value metric at Statcast: Contreras (0) was exactly average, Herrera was minus 1, and Pages was minus 1. I’m not seeing a major difference there, but obviously Herrera will have to get better at liquidating base stealers in 2025.

4. THE CONTRERAS CONTRACT: I shall repeat … the dude is underrated. The gripes over his contract is comical. According to the FanGraphs value calculations, which have been in place for a long time, the Contreras performance was worth $22 million to the Cardinals 2023, and then $21.2 million in 2024. That’s impressive considering that he played in only 64.5 percent of the games over the last two seasons. Which is why the club deemed it best to lower his injury risk and reduce the physical punishment by switching to first base.

Based on his contract structure, the Cardinals paid Contreras a total of $28 million over his first two years, which breaks down to an average of $14 million per season. But Contreras provided an average annual performance value of $21.6 million over those two years.

On the three seasons that remain on his five-year contract, Contreras will make an average annual salary of $18.16 million. There is nothing excessive or wasteful about the team’s investment in Contreras. Since the start of 2023, only Nolan Arenado has a higher value rating than Contreras among Cardinals position players. That’s logical because Arenado played in 87 more games than the banged up Contreras over the last two seasons.

5. MIZZOU: LET’S GET PHYSICAL. As I write this, Missouri is a 2 and ½ point underdog for Saturday’s home game against Oklahoma. The Tigers surprisingly appeared in the first college football playoff ranking this week, listed at No. 24. But MU is definitely trending in the wrong direction. I don’t count the team’s win at UMass because it was a garbage game with no danger of losing. With that said, Missouri has lost two of its last three legitimate competitions. In between getting trounced by Alabama and Texas A&M on the road by a combined 75-10 score, Mizzou barely crawled by yucky Auburn with a 21-17 escape for a W.

And now battered Oklahoma comes in with a 5-4 record overall, and 1-4 in the SEC. In their last three “real” games (sorry, Maine) the Sooners were pounded in three straight losses to Texas, South Carolina and Ole Miss by an average of 23 points. The Tigers can’t lose this game. It won’t be easy to grab, because the home team’s offense does not pass the ball very well, and doesn’t run it very well. The Missouri defense is one of the least effective pass-rush units among the four Power Conference teams.

Both of these teams have terrible air games. Among the 69 power-conference offenses, OU ranks 53rd in passer rating and MU is 59th. Brady Cook is a better quarterback than backup Drew Pyne, but I don’t think that means much. Before getting injured Cook was having a mediocre (at best) season. And unless there’s some sudden transformation of Pyne’s limited skill, Mizzou will likely struggle to make connections with the ball in flight.

According to Sports Info Solutions, Missouri has the least accurate passing touch among power conference teams, ranking 69th (last) with an on-target rate of 57.9 percent. Oklahoma isn’t much better – but still brings more passing accuracy (71% on-target rate) to this renewed rivalry.

In short, Missouri will have to win by outmuscling Oklahoma. Specifically:

Mizzou’s rushing game has faded with Nate Noel hobbled. Perhaps he’ll give the Tigers a boost if he’s capable of going after it on Saturday. I won’t bore you with more numbers, but among power conference teams MU is in the bottom half of the rushing-metrics rankings that I pay attention to. And this is the problem, at least potentially. That’s because Oklahoma, for all of its other flaws, has the third-best run defense among power conference teams based on expected points per play. The Sooners have allowed the lowest rate of successful runs by a power-conference defense, and only six power teams have been better at preventing big-play runs. It could be a long night in CoMo if the Tigers offense gets jammed at the line of scrimmage. We’ll see if offensive coordinator and head coach Eli Drinkwitz came up with anything creative and/or effective during the bye week.

Oklahoma has low grades for its rushing attack (via Sports Info Solutions) and that should work in Mizzou;s favor. The Tigers aren’t exactly a run-stuffing defense, but they do OK. Mizzou can make a difference by putting heat on Oklahoma’s freshman quarterback Jackson Arnold. Two weeks ago, he completed 71 percent of his passes and tossed two touchdowns in a respectable loss at Ole Miss. The kid has talent but has gotten rattled under pressure. But can Mizzou get to him enough times? Among power conference defenses the Tigers rank 61st of 69 teams in QB pressures, 62nd in knockdowns, 55th in hurries, and 44th in sack percentage. If Mizzou’s defense can really clamp down on OU with physical authority, the home team should prevail. Say, 23-20.

Thanks for reading …

Have a wonderful weekend.

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing. Here’s the link: @TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie Bits! Notes On the Blues, Cardinals, Mizzou Football, Kansas City Chiefs. Enjoy. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

Willson Contreras doesn’t want to move on from the Cardinals, he wants to stay with the franchise, and he’s willing to switch positions, transferring from catcher to first base. So he’s making a move … but not the move we may have expected going into the offseason.

This is a good piece of news for many reasons.

As you might have guessed, I have a lot to say …

1. Contreras has a no-trade clause, but had no reason to flex it. As president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told the media immediately after the 2024 season, the team would contact Cardinal players that have long-term contracts to see if they would prefer to relocate instead of remaining with the Redbirds during a rebuilding phase. Contreras wanted to stay here. Sonny Gray likes it here, as he told Mozeliak. We’ll see what develops with third baseman Nolan Arenado, who has three seasons remaining on his expensive contract and could be a strong trade candidate. But Arenado also has a no-trade clause, and moving him could be extremely difficult. But this column is about Contreras, and I was pleased to learn that he’s committed to the Cardinals. I’m not surprised. He was proud to sign a five-year, $87.5 million contract with the Cards before the 2023 season and wants to see it through – and help the team during a transition. That’s admirable. I’lll never understand the (hopefully) small percentage of Cardinals fans that are endlessly negative about this guy.

2. Contreras will remain viable, and healthier, by moving to first base. And that means more at–bats. And hitting is what Contreras does best. He’ll work hard to be a respectable first baseman, and I think he’ll be OK. But if he’s slightly below-average defensively at catcher, then what’s the damage of having slightly below-average defense at first base? Contreras won’t match the defense the Cardinals received from Paull Goldschmidt at first base. But I prefer to wait and see how Contreras actually does at his new home before condemning the move in advance. In his brief time playing first base for the Cubs, Contreras was a minus 1 in defensive runs saved over 51.1 innings. That isn’t hideous, but it’s important for Contreras to be as good over there as he can. He knows this. And he has pride.

More and more teams are doing this – having their backstops catch less and get a large share of at-bats when in the lineup at other positions, mostly DH. (And Contreras will also get regular turns at DH.) As Baseball Prospectus recently noted in a study of catchers that have logged considerable time at other spots – calling them “mixed use” catchers – there were 14 of them in 2024. In the five years before that (excluding the pandemic season), there was an average of 6.6 mixed-use catchers per season. This is a way for teams to keep their catchers fresh, lessen the risk of injury and get more consistent results (offensively) from good-hitting catchers. This makes sense, and the Cardinals are following suit.

As Cardinals president of baseball operations told Derrick Goold at the GM meetings: “Basically, our medical team recommended it. In terms of if he really wants to extend his career, they think that would be best for him. Catching is, obviously, a demanding position.”

And we should note that the Cardinals planned to move Contreras to DH at some point during the life of the five-year contract, so a position change would have happened one way or another. At the time the Cardinals signed Contreras, they had Herrera in development but he wasn’t close to being ready to be a heavy-duty catcher in the big leagues. So there was a gap. And St. Louis went into this with the idea of having Contreras catch for two or three years until the next-gen catcher was prepared to go. And at that point, Contreras would be moved. And this is precisely what happened.

Some in the national media are depicting this as a failed signing. I have to scratch my head on this one. Let’s review …

* The Cardinals primarily wanted the Contreras bat … and the offense …

* The Cardinals paid for his bat … and the offense …

* The Cardinals still have his bat … and the offense …

• Except now the Cardinals will benefit even more from the Contreras bat and offense … because Contreras will be in the lineup at greater frequency.

This is pretty simple, yes?

And the Cardinals have a couple of young catchers who can do the job. And one of them (Herrera) is projected to produce a level of offense that is 17 percent above league average in 2025. So what is the problem? Herrera will have to do a much better job of throwing out base stealers; he’s been poor in this area. But the Cardinals haven’t given Herrera the coaching that he needs — in the minors or the majors. Hopefully for Herrera, that will change in 2025. So I’m hardly going to dismiss the possibility of improvement. And once again, Herrera’s bat is a plus. If 2025 has been set aside as a “young player” season — which also includes the important task of the team doing everything possible to improve the young-player performance — than Herrera’s awful throw-out rate should be a major priority.

3. I’ve already seen some whining online about how the Cardinals are being stupid (again) by moving a player to a new position. Oh, really? These folks think this is just a Cardinals Thing and it hasn’t happened before? I’m specifically referring to moving catchers to another position. catcher position. Many catchers have changed their address on the baseball diamond. The movement didn’t always lead to poor defense; many of these guys did fine at their new spots. Others struggled. But my point is, this is nothing new. This is just a partial listing of catchers that were relocated to new spots for various reasons.

Buster Posey
Joe Mauer
Craig Biggio
Ted Simmons
Yogi Berra
Johnny Bench
Gary Carter
Josh Gibson
Dale Murphy
Joe Torre
* Eddie Murray
Gene Tenace
Carlos Santana
Kyle Schwarber
B.J. Surhoff
Brian Downing
Todd Zeile
Salvador Perez
Josh Donaldson
Stephen Vogt

And there are more — including Scott Hatteberg of “Moneyball” fame. As you may have noticed, there are quite a few Hall of Famers on that list. (*Murray, a Cooperstown inductee, was drafted as a catcher by Baltimore and converted to first base in the minors.)

Joe Torre is an ideal example because he was a Cardinal at the time of his position pitch. This was written by Joe Sheehan:

“At the age of 28, Cardinals’ slugger Joe Torre looked like he was in decline, having posted his two worst seasons since becoming a regular catcher in 1963. Torre spent most of the 1969 season as a first baseman, then took up third base on a part-time basis in 1970. A year after the switch, he had his best season, winning the 1971 NL MVP Award with a .363/.421/.555 performance. Torre would remain a productive hitter through 1974.”

Yeah, really idiotic of the Cardinals to remove the catching gear from Torre and post him elsewhere. Pardon my sarcasm.

4. By moving Contreras to first base, the Cardinals open considerable playing time for their young catcher Ivan Herrera. Yes, Pedro Pages will also have a busy role in the 2025 catching setup, but the Cardinals would be making a big mistake to limit Herrera. Pages is more advanced defensively, but that’s mostly about calling pitches. Herrera is working to get better at that, and the only way for him to enhance that pitch-selection skill is to get as many reps as possible. It won’t happen if Herrera is seated in the dugout and watching Pages play more. This is for an obvious reason: Herrera, unlike Pages, has a chance to become a special hitter. And that shouldn’t be downplayed.

Last season, among Cardinals that had at least 250 plate appearances, here’s where Herrera ranked in several important categories:

– Batting average: first at .301
– Onbase percentage: .372, second to Contreras
– Slugging percentage: .428, second to Contreras
– OPS: .800, second to Contreras
– wRC+: second to Contreras.

In 2024, Contreras was 40 percent above league average offensively per park-and-league adjusted runs created. (wRC+). And Herrera was second to Contreras at 27 percent above league average offensively.

By playing Contreras at first base and DH, the Cardinals will have their two best hitters in the lineup more frequently. Last season Contreras and Herrera combined for 617 plate appearances. This season, that number of PA should increase to at least 1,000. And that means more offense for the Cardinals. But the Cards have to be smart about this. Pages will certainly play a lot, and can be used as a defensive replacement in other games if needed.

But if you have a potential gem in Ivan Herrera – who is still only 24 years old – what would be the point of having a “rebuilding” season designed to give young players more extensive opportunities, only to limit Herrera’s playing time? If the Cardinals do something like that, then this “full opportunity” pledge to young players will be a joke — and incomprehensibly ludicrous.

5. The Cardinals are overstocked with catchers. That’s all the more reason to move Contreras to first base/DH. Herrera and Pages are here. Catching prospect Jimmy Crooks is getting closer; he’ll be the starting catcher for Triple A Memphis next season. And behind Crooks there is Leonardo Bernal, who probably will be the starter at Double A Springfield. Crooks is 23. Bernal is 20. Both are future big-league catchers.

Speaking to Forbes.com, one scout had this to say after observing Bernal in the Arizona Fall League. “You watch this kid and he hustles every second,” the scout told Forbes. “He’s got good hands, essential behind the plate and it helps him at bat. He’s got good power from the left side, doesn’t seem as confident right-handed. But he’s 20 years old. Let’s see where he goes. I think he can be an above-average catcher, maybe more, in the majors.”

The Cardinals have too many catchers. That’s the proverbial pleasant problem. But there isn’t enough room for all of them with the big club in 2026 and beyond … so it clears a space by moving Contreras up the line to first base.

6. I’ll say it again: Contreras is underrated offensively and it’s way past time to wake up on that. Among MLB right-handed batters who have at least 850 plate appearances over the last two seasons, Contreras ranks 10th in wRC+ at 33 percent above league average offensively. And he’s sixth in onbase percentage, seventh in walk rate, 18th in slugging,11th in OPS, and 17th in Isolated Power. In his two seasons as a Cardinal, Contreras has performed 28 percent above league average against righty pitchers and is 46 percent above league averages vs. lefties.

7. There’s a platoon possibility. Not a full-time platoon, but I’ll explain. The left-side swinging Alex Burleson plays capable defense at first base, and in 2024 he popped righty pitchers for a .292 average, .464 slug and .804 OPS. Overall, Burly was 25 percent above league average vs. right-handed opponents. Contreras is slightly better than that against RHP, but that isn’t the point. As Mozeliak has indicated, when Burleson plays at first base, Contreras can be deployed as a DH.

Keep this in mind: last season major-league hitters faced right-handed pitching in 73 percent of their plate appearances. In other words: Burleson will get plenty of at-bats vs. righties – either as a first baseman or DH. And this is where Herrera factors in. Last season he ripped right-handed pitchers for a .323 average, .391 onbase percentage and .465 slug. As a team the Cardinals were around league average offensively against righty pitching. With more at-bats for Contreras, Burleson and Herrera the Cards figure to be tougher in matchups vs. right-handers.

8. Does the offense supplied by Contreras lose value because of the position swap? Good-hitting catchers aren’t easy to find. OK, I get the point … but if I may, here are a couple of things to think about.

A) I’m not sure how the Cardinals would lose all that much value (offensively) from their catchers over the next few seasons as long as Herrera gets enough at-bats … and with Jimmy Crooks – who bats left and crushes righty pitching – on the way.

B) Contreras has an offensive profile that easily provides an above-average performance level at the first-base position. Just to have a larger sample size, I used the statistics from the three-season period from 2022 through 2024. And this is what I found when comparing the league-average first-baseman stats to what Contreras has generated since ‘22:

– Batting average: Contreras, +4% above average
– Onbase percentage: Contreras, +34% above average
– Slugging percentage: +41% above average
– OPS: +76% above average
– Isolated Power: +44% above average

As for wRC+, Contreras is 23 percent above the MLB average for first basemen over the past three seasons. He also has a better home-run ratio and a higher rate of doubles than the league’s average by first basemen.

9. If Contreras can successfully moves his usual offense to first base going forward, here’s how he’d measure up against prominent first basemen since the start of 2022:

+ Contreras had a 133 wRC+ that would be tied for second among MLB first basemen since 2022. The only first baseman with better numbers over that time is Freddie Freeman.

+ The Contreras OBP (.361) would be tied for fourth among first basemen.

+ The .468 Contreras slug over the past three seasons would rank ninth. His OPS (.829) would be tied for sixth with Pete Alonso.

+ His Isolated Power would rank fifth.

OK, I’ve typed enough!

Please pardon my typos. Busy day.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing. Here’s the link: @TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: Moving Willson Contreras To 1st Base Is The Right Move By The Cardinals — For Many Reasons. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVEW

Sportsbook at Ballpark Village? In a close victory Tuesday, Missouri voters narrowly approved a ballot initiative to legalize sports betting in the state. According to media reports, the straight yes-or-no measure passed by a slim margin of about 7,000 votes out of nearly three million cast. The campaign was supported by a coalition of professional sports teams including the St. Louis Cardinals, St. Louis Blues, Kansas City Chiefs and Kansas City Royals.

Repeated attempts to legalize sports betting through legislation failed to get by the Missouri state senate, but the state’s voters came through. The provision grants market access to the state’s pro teams, and that should lead to financial benefits for the Cardinals and Blues.

DraftKings and FanDuel teamed up to advocate for a successful outcome by investing $41 million in an aggressive ad campaign. They were opposed by a rival gaming company, Caesars Entertainment, which spent a reported $14 million in an unsuccessful attempt to defeat the proposal.

The thing is, Caesars Entertainment will likely establish a sportsbook presence in Missouri (if permitted). According to Sportico, the company’s opposition stemmed from the need to have legally approved sportsbook revenue flow directly through pre-existing casinos. Caesars Entertainment sought to protect its interests; the company owns three casinos in the state including the Horseshoe in St. Louis.

So given the money that each side invested to win the ballot initiative, FanDuel and DraftKings defeated Caesars by a score of 41-14.

What does this mean for the Cardinals and Blues? What kind of money are we talking about? We’ll know more as Missouri’s pro teams make plans and announce them. But MLB’s Chicago Cubs are one example to look at.

What kind of money are we talking about? In 2020, DraftKings and the Cubs announced a partnership that included the construction of a sportsbook at Wrigley Field. The Cubs reportedly agreed to a 10-year contract for $100 million, which means an average of $10 million per year. The Cubs also collect a share of the food and beverages sold at the Sportsbook.

The sportsbook opened in June, 2023. At that time fans could make legal wagers from their phones from inside the facility (and the ballpark) but weren’t permitted to make in-person bets with the sportsbook’s personnel or wagering machines until March, 2024. The venue, attached to Wrigley Field, has a massive 2000-square-foot video screen and offers full service for food and drink. It’s popular with Cubs fans.

I can see something similar taking shape at Ballpark Village. The infrastructure already exists, and can be repurposed. Cardinals president of business Bill DeWitt III has been working and planning on this for years, so the franchise should be ready for a quick turnaround to the opening of business.

This should be a win-win for the Cardinals. They’ll make money off of this; it’s just a matter of how much. Having a sportsbook partnership (and on-site wagering) doesn’t mean the Cardinals will now have the cash to go out and sign some expensive free agent to a monster contract. And the Cardinals already have a lot of revenue coming in. This won’t transform their financial firepower. But it will help. And it won’t be as easy for Cards management to plead poverty.

A big part of that is up to the team to market and maximize the potential of this new enterprise and take advantage of the opportunity. And should help the Cardinals navigate through problems with their local TV contract and the instability of their partner Diamond Sports. That annoying issue has impacted the team financially … not that anyone out there should feel compelled to have a charity auction to benefit the DeWitt family.

My snark aside, I sincerely believe this: it’s good for the Cardinals to have strong financial health. Among other aspects of this, the Cards can move up to where they should be in the annual MLB payroll rankings.

I’m not as obsessed with payroll as many others. And that’s for several reasons:

Since Bill DeWitt Jr. purchased the team at a bargain price before the 1996 season, the Cardinals have ranked among the MLB top 10 in payroll in 14 of their 29 seasons over that time. That’s 48.2 percent. And they have been ranked 11th in three other seasons, including the World Series championship year in 2006. To summarize, the Cardinals have been among the top 11 teams in spending for 17 of the 29 DeWitt seasons, or 58.6 percent.

Redbirds have qualified for the playoffs six times when they’re ranked between 12th and 14th in payroll. There have been six Cardinal teams – 1997, 1998, 2003, 2007, 2016 and 2018 – that failed to make the postseason despite having the advantage of a top 10 payroll listing.

That said, when the Cardinals are ready to emerge from their planned rebuild, ownership will have to sign off on a larger payroll … a payroll that would put them in right around 10th or 11th among the 30 major-league teams in payroll. I base that on their average payroll ranking – 10.3 – during their 16 postseason-bound seasons.

In the 26-man payroll accounting, the 2022 Cardinals won 93 games and a division title with the baseball’s No. 13 payroll, but slipped to the No. 15 payroll in their 91-loss season in 2023. The 2024 Cardinals were 11th in the 26-man payroll and 14th in the 40-man payroll.

I would like to see them move back up in the rankings. Not in 2025, and maybe not in 2026. But by 2027? Sure. But I strongly prefer to see the front office complete the comprehensive minor-league and player-development overhaul, establish a younger and more talented nucleus, and raise payroll after that. And revenue from the coming sportsbook enterprise should provide a boost.

New sportsbooks have come on line through ballot initiatives. In 2020 three states – Maryland, Nebraska and South Dakota – all received approval from the voters. And in Louisiana 55 of 64 parishes passed a ballot measure to legalize sportsbooks.

Currently about 65% of the U.S. population resides in a state with legal betting. That’s up by 26 percent since 2021.

The Cardinals will be trying to catch up with other MLB franchises in the sportsbook game including three of their rivals in the NL Central. The Cubs, Pirates and Reds all have sportsbook partnerships. The Blues will also join other NHL franchises in the sportsbook alignments. From what I could determine through research, as of now 14 MLB teams and 15 NHL teams have existing sportsbooks partnerships in place.

One thing I did not know about: The Missouri legal-betting measure comes with a 10% tax rate, with that money going to the state (minus promotional costs.) According to Sportico, that 10% rate is lower than the national average. Sportico reports that “a handful of states have recently raised or restructured their tax rates upward.” That will be something to monitor when the sportsbooks open in Missouri.

But soon enough, you’ll be able to wager on the probability of Nolan Gorman striking out in his next at-bat. There are many possibilities.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing. Here’s the link: @TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: How Will The Cardinals Benefit From Legalized Betting? appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

As the Cardinals begin the long and winding process that leads them into the 2025 season, I’m already on the way to setting a record for typing and saying these two words: young players. Or, if you prefer … young guys or maybe young dudes.

As in: the rebuilding, regenerating, replenishing, resetting, rehabbing, reforming, revamping Cardinals are going with young players in 2025. The Cardinals will let the young guys play. The Cardinals are creating playing-time opportunities for the young dudes.

But what are we talking about here? In this column I’ll be focusing on the St. Louis position players. How many of them are truly “young” in the baseball sense? Sure, we’re using human-being age, but that isn’t the same as baseball-playing age. The athletes have an entirely different standard for growing “old.”

In 2024, the average age of an MLB position player was around 27.9 years overall – and 27.6 years in the National League. What about the Cardinals? Even with the “senior” Paul Goldschmidt and the “aging” Nolan Arenado on last year’s squad, the St. Louis hitters had an average age of 28.2 years. That made them the 12th youngest set of hitters in the majors – and fifth youngest in the NL. So the Redbirds were hardly ancient.

On the other hand, we have a tendency to refer to certain guys as “young” who aren’t really young. They’re in between. Example: utility utensil Brendan Donovan. He’ll be 28 in January. He graduated to the majors in late April, 2022. His 1,491 plate appearances rank 97th among MLB hitters since the start of the ‘22 campaign. Is Donovan really young? No. He’s in the middle. The same probably applies to Lars Nootbaar, age 27, who already has logged 1,255 major-league plate appearances since making his MLB debut for St. Louis on June 22 of the 2021 season. Noot is just outside the top 150 of major-league hitters that have the most plate appearances since that date.

Luken Baker is 28, but he hasn’t played that much. He isn’t “young” per se … but the big man is an inexperienced major-league player.

The Cardinals have three 26-year-old hitters in Alec Burleson, Pedro Pages and Michael Siani (in July.) Burly is just under 1,000 plate appearances in his big-league career. The other two aren’t as experienced. Nolan Gorman won’t be 25 until May, but he already has filed 1,179 major-league plate appearances on his resume.

Masyn Winn turns 23 in March. Jordan Walker is 23 in May. They’re both young … as is Victor Scott II (nearly 24) and Ivan Herrera (25 in June).

If you want to put any Cardinal with fewer than 1,000 MLB plate appearances in the “young” category, I wouldn’t disagree. But I’d prefer “inexperienced,” as is the case with Luken Baker.

Excluding Goldschmidt (now a free agent), Nolan Arenado, and Willson Contreras (33 in May), the only St. Louis position players with more than 1,000 big-league plate appearances are Donovan, Nootbaar and Gorman. So in that context, this is a fairly young band of hitters. Sorry for my fussing; I just want to make sure that I am not being guilty of overstating their youth or making a misleading marketing pitch.

Here are some thoughts on seven of the younger-generation (or inexperienced) Cardinals:

1. Victor Scott II: If he earns the starting center field job in advance of the 2025 season opener, that would be a beneficial development for the Cardinals. He’s one of the fastest players in the majors, an excellent base-stealing thief, and his power began to emerge late last season when he hit .311 with a .354 onbase percentage and .467 slugging percentage over his final 19 games.

2. Ivan Herrera: In 72 games this past season the catcher batted. 301 with an .800 OPS. Among MLB hitters that had at least 250 plate appearances in 2024, Herrera had a higher OPS than Manny Machado, Willy Adames, Jackson Chourio, Steven Kwan, Jose Altuve, Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, Salvador Perez, Austin Riley and many more. Herrera’s 2.1 Wins Above Replacement was higher than that of Pete Alonso, Xander Bogaerts, J.T. Realmuto and Francisco Alvarez. Herrera needs to play a helluva lot more in 2025. The Cardinals could have a special talent in Herrera – but we won’t know unless he plays extensively. Herrera is pretty much the ideal example of a young hitter who warrants a full opportunity in a rebuilding type of season.

3. Alec Burleson: I was all in on the big shooter back on July 21. At that point of the season, in his first 92 games, Burleson was batting .294 with a .500 slugging percentage and .824 OPS. He had 14 doubles, 18 homers and 59 RBIs. On that day Burleson led the Cardinals in batting average and RBIs, was tied for first in homers, and was second to Willson Contreras in slugging. After that? Burleson’s hitting performance drooped substantially; over his final 60 games he had a .230 average, .300 slug, .600 OPS and only nine combined doubles and homers.

What happened? Well, Burleson wasn’t as effective against fastballs during his final 60 games. But the biggest issues over that time were his .107 average against breaking balls, and his .103 average against sliders and sweepers. On non-fastballs Burleson batted .184 with a .235 slug and just one homer from July 22 through the end of the season.

4. Lars Nootbaar: He just needs to stay healthy and pile up a large total of at-bats. That’s his problem. And that’s his challenge. I took the four busiest months of Nootbaar’s career – based on the highest number of plate appearances in a month – and added them all together. My finding: his offensive performance was collectively 31 percent above league average in those busiest months. Nootbaar tends to be extra rusty when he returns from the injured list. The more he plays, the more he rakes.

5. Nolan Gorman: from June 5 until the time he was demoted to Triple A Memphis on Aug. 21, Gorman hit an abysmal .170 with a faint .291 slugging percentage and an alarming 40 percent strikeout rate. The new hitting coach, Brant Brown, has a tough assignment here. Gorman was an absolute mess during a collapse that lasted two-plus months. He was overpowered by four-seam fastballs and befuddled by breaking pitches. Gorman made it easier for pitchers by falling into too many two-strike counts and chasing too many balls out of the strike zone. Beginning June 5, Gorman batted .059 with a 61 percent strikeout rate when he made contact with pitches out of the zone.

6. Jordan Walker: His numbers were terrible at the big-league level in 2024. His hitting approach was completely out of whack. After popping fastballs for a .349 average and .651 slugging percentage as a rookie in 2023, Walker scraped for a .222 average on four-seam fastballs this past season and his slugging percentage dropped by 207 points. He batted .185 against every type of fastball in 2024.

Another massive flaw for Walker was his failure against low and outside pitchers. On low-and-away pitches that sailed out of the strike zone in 2024, Walker batted .042 with a 61 percent strikeout rate. But the futility was also evident when he connected with a low-and-away pitch that landed in the strike zone; Walker hit .125 with no power against them. Walker’s awkward stance made him crooked and vulnerable; he basically requires a complete reconstruction as a hitter in ‘25. And the best time for that is during a rebuilding season for the Cardinals.

7. Luken Baker: These are very small sample sizes. But the right-handed slugger – who pulverized left-handed pitching in the minors – didn’t do much against them in his first exposure to big-league pitching in 2023. But even though we’re talking about only 22 plate appearances vs. big-league lefties in 2024, Baker blasted them for a .722 slugging percentage and 1.086 OPS. That warrants a more extensive showcase in 2025. But Baker is inferior against right-handed pitchers, so he’d have to be part of a set platoon at first base or DH.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing. Here’s the link: @TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: A Look At Seven Cardinals Hitters With A Lot To Prove In 2025. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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BERNIE BITS

Good afternoon.

I’m hitting some fungoes …

1. No surprise to see the Cardinals move on from starting pitchers Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn and reliever Keynan Middleton. The STL front office declined options on all three pitchmen in the club’s first pre 2025 salary dump. Had the Cardinals picked up the three options for next season, Gibson-Lynn-Middleton would have been paid a combined $28 million in 2025. So after subtracting the $1 million buyout due to each gentleman, the Cardinals will realize a net savings of $25 million with Thursday’s business-of-baseball transactions.

2. This is a logical step for a team that’s entering a moderate rebuilding cycle. According to the salary-tracking site Spotrac, the Cardinals allocated $51.6 million to starting pitchers in 2024. That was the eighth-highest total given to a team’s set of starting pitchers. Did the Cardinals get their money’s worth? Not really. And that figure ($51.6 million) would have been higher without Sonny Gray deferring a sizable part of his 2024 salary by agreeing to get paid $10 million instead of the scheduled first-year pay of $25 million. Because of how the Gray contract was structured, the Cardinals now owe him a guaranteed $65 million over 2025 and ‘26.

3. Middleton was never a factor. He didn’t pitch for the Cardinals, at all, after agreeing to a one-year deal for $6 million, with an option of $6 million tucked in for 2025. Middleton was knocked out of the 2024 season with a forearm injury that required surgery. The Cardinals correctly decided to move on; on top of everything else there’s no guarantee that Middleton will be ready to go – 100 percent – by the start of next season.

4. Lynn and Gibson pretty much did what was expected of them in 2024. The only real minus was Lynn starting only 23 games because of a painful knee condition, and with the missed time he turned in only seven quality starts all season. But the Lynn injury gave Andre Pallante the opportunity to solidify a spot in the rotation for 2025. Moreover, Lynn limped to the IL after his July 30 start in a move that coincided with the trade that transferred White Sox starting pitcher Erick Fedde to St. Louis.

5. Gibson and Lynn combined for 53 starts, 287 innings, and a 4.09 ERA. The Cardinals had a 29-24 record in games started by Lynn and Gibson. Lynn benefited from generous run support, which largely explains STL’s 15-8 record in his 23 starts. The Cardinals averaged 4.9 runs in Lynn’s 23 assignments. I thought the Cardinals might pick up Gibson’s option because he supplies a good amount of innings, cranks out a respectable level of quality starts, has improved by making more extensive use of the sweeper pitch, and is a legitimately good leader to have in place with so many younger pitchers around.

6. This sure seems to be the final chapter of Lynn’s career as a Cardinal. He began his MLB stay as a Cardinal, left as a free agent, pitched for several other clubs, and returned to St. Louis for a 2024 farewell season. The Cardinals went 106-78 in Lynn’s 184 starts for them, and he also pitched well in relief as a rookie in 2011. In 2024, Lynn was the last active major-league player from that 2011 World Series championship that closed the Albert Pujols and Tony La Russa era. Lynn was always a fan favorite, and it was fun to have him come back to St. Louis for last call.

7. Unless Lynn and the Cardinals somehow reunite, this is how he’ll rank in franchise history among starting pitchers during the Expansion Era, which began in 1961: fifth in strikeouts, sixth for most starts, sixth for most individual wins (79), and 11th in innings pitched.

Lynn started seven postseason games for the Cardinals but is best remembered for his fine work in the 2011 postseason. At age 24, Lynn had a 2-0 record and turned in a 3.27 ERA in 10 appearances that October. He was a prominent piece in a bullpen that La Russa leaned on heavily to guide St. Louis to a second World Series title in six seasons.

8. A key question for the offseason concerns Sonny Gray. Will the Cardinals trade him? Does he want to be traded? Gray has full no-trade protection and opted to sign with St. Louis to be reasonably close to his family home in Nashville. But Gray might have a yearning to pitch for a team that has a much greater chance to make a postseason run over the next two seasons. Who knows? And how much could the Cardinals receive in exchange for a solid No. 2 starter that’s under contract for at least two more seasons – and with a club option for 2027? The answer: who knows.

9. The Cardinals have several players with no-trade clauses: Gray, third baseman Nolan Arenado, catcher Willson Contreras, and starting pitcher Miles Mikolas. That obviously complicates attempts to move any of them if the Cardinals want to do so. After the Cardinals completed their season, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said he planned to have conversations with players to see how they feel about staying … or going. The Cardinal most likely to be traded this season is closer Ryan Helsley. He can become a free agent after next season, is coming off a career-best season, and with a full season of service for a potential new team, his trade value is at a peak.

10. Mozeliak offered this update in an interview with Martin Kilcoyne of FOX 2: “I can say this. I’ve had some early discussions, and I would say for the most part, people seem like they’re excited about what we’re trying to do.”

11. What will the starting rotation look like in 2025? If no one (especially Gray) gets traded, here’s the list of starting-pitching personnel in place right now, subject to change: Gray, Pallante, Fedde, Mikolas, and Steven Matz. Let’s review:

12. Gray is an asset. Despite a couple of disappointing stretches in 2024, he ended the season ranked 3rd among MLB starters in strikeout rate (30.3%), 7th in Fielding Independent ERA (3.12) and 13th in Wins Above Replacement (3.8).

13. Fedde had a good 2024 campaign split between the White Sox and Cardinals. You might even say it was an underrated season. In 31 starts, Fedde crafted a 3.30 ERA that ranked 17th among all MLB starters; that earned-run average was better than that of Dylan Cease, Tanner Bibee, Logan Webb, Aaron Nola, Michael Wacha, George Kirby, Sean Manea, Luis Castillo, Freddy Peralta, Pablo Lopez, Nathan Eovaldi, Jose Quintana, Kevin Gausman and … Sonny Gray. Among many other notables. Fedde finished 17th among starters with 3.4 Wins Above Replacement. It took some time for Fedde to settle in for the Cardinals, but after putting up a 4.64 ERA in his first three starts he finished strong with a 2.95 ERA in his final seven starts for the Redbirds.

14. Pallante impressed the Cardinals by filling a void in the rotation during a time of injuries, and he was so effective as a starter they kept going with him in the rotation. In 20 starts from May 29 through the end of the season, Pallante’s 3.48 ERA was the best among STL starters and ranked 22nd in the majors. His fielding independent ERA (3.56) was ranked 20th among MLB starters.

15. Matz strained to stay healthy during his first three years as a Cardinal, averaging only 11.3 starts per season and working in 18 other games as a reliever. Unless Matz is traded, which we can’t rule out, he’ll be paid $12 million in 2025 in the final year of his deal.

16. Mikolas has been mostly terrible over the last two seasons, pitching to a 5.04 ERA. He has one year left on a contract that pays him $16 million for 2025. Plus there’s the no-trade contract. Would any teams have interest in Mikolas? There could be a market for him. Why? Because over the past two seasons Mikolas leads the majors for most games started (67), ranks 10th for most innings pitched by a starter, and has a more forgiving 4.26 fielding independent ERA that ranks a respectable 25th. He’s also 19th in most quality starts since the start of 2024. There is value in durability and bulk innings; that’s why Mikolas ranks 19th among big-league starters in Wins Above Replacement (5.0) over the past two seasons.

17. Michael McGreevy will compete for a rotation slot after an eye-opening audition last season. It’s a small sample and all of that, but in four appearances (three starts) the rookie righthander went 3-0 with a 1.96 ERA. It left us wanting to see more.

18. Younger or inexperienced starters that will (or can) enter the mix in 2025 include the organization’s top pitching prospect in Quinn Matthews, the elite prospect Tink Hence, Gordon Graceffo, Zack Thompson and 2023 trade-deadline acquisitions Tekoah Roby, Sem Robberse and Drew Rom. Former first–round draft choice Cooper Hjerpe pitched quite well last season until getting shut down in late July with an elbow injury that required a surgical cleanup. His readiness for 2025 is uncertain. I’m sure I’m leaving someone out … but we’ll have plenty of time to update this list between now and spring training.

19. Here’s a note from Keith Law (The Athletic) on Cardinals’ infield prospect Thomas Saggese, who made his big-league debut for St. Louis late last season. Law recently scouted Saggese in the Arizona Fall League.

“Saggese reached the majors at the end of the year for the Cardinals and is in the AFL after a completely full season,” Law wrote. “He’s already over 600 PA in this calendar year between the minors, majors, and the AFL. It’s to his credit that he still looks so good right now, playing plus defense at second, using the whole field well at the plate, even homering on a slider one pitch after whiffing on one. I’m sure it helps when you go from facing big-league pitching to facing AFL arms, but I would just say that if Saggese’s major-league debut concerned you at all, he’s fine.”

20. Finally: Congrats to Tommy Edman and the Los Angeles Dodgers for winning the 2024 World Series. They booted the Yankees in five games. Are the Yankees a fraud team? Yes, I think they are. Just read this insightful note from the superb New York Post baseball columnist Joel Sherman:

“The Yankees were 31-9 (.775) against the AL Central (postseason included) this year and 71-65 (.522) against everyone else,” Sherman wrote. “They have played seven rounds against the AL Central in the playoffs since 2017, including two to win the AL pennant this year, and advanced through all seven. They have played eight rounds against everyone else and won only one – the one-game wild card in 2018 vs. the A’s, who kind of spiritually (if not geographically) belong in the AL Central.”

21. And this note is from me: The Yankees won the World Series in 2009. Fifteen seasons have been played since then. And over the 15 seasons, the Yankees spent $3.3 BILLION dollars on player payroll. For that humongous investment, the Yankees didn’t even win a World Series. And over the last 15 years the low-budget Kansas City Royals have a World Series title (unlike the NYY) and have more American League pennants (2) than the Yankees (1). A total of 10 different major-league franchises have won a World Series (or more) since 2010. But the Yankees and their $3.3 billion payroll expenditures resulted in … nothing. At least not when we count World Series championships. Even the Cardinals have taken more World Series (1) and league pennants (2) than the Yankees over the past 15 seasons.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing. Here’s the link: @TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie Bits: Cards’ Moves Underway, Looking At The 2025 Rotation, Tip O’ The Cap To Lance Lynn, And Why The Yankees Are Frauds. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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Greetings. Today I continue with my series of columns on potential offseason trade assets on the Cardinals’ roster. So far I’ve discussed the pros and the cons of trading closer Ryan Helsey and starting pitcher Sonny Gray.

And now it’s time to put the focus on Willson Contreras, the team’s No. 1 catcher who also takes shifts as a designated hitter.

The Overview: In the aftermath of Yadier Molina’s retirement, the Cardinals went shopping for a catcher and coveted Contreras. They agreed on a five-year contract worth a total of $87.5 million for an average of $17.5 million per season. Contreras has three years remaining on that deal and will be paid an average of 18.2 million (guaranteed) from 2025 through 2027. The contract includes a no-trade clause, so Contreras can veto any proposed deal. His first two seasons as a Cardinal didn’t go smoothly.

There was the early-season controversy in 2023 when pitchers blamed Contreras for their own failures, prompting manager Oli Marmol to appease the veteran pitchers. The Cardinals decided to scapegoat Contreras and move him to DH – but quickly rescinded that after a justified backlash from fans and media over the unfair treatment of the catcher during his first several weeks as a Cardinal. Then, in 2024, Contreras was disrupted by two separate injuries – a fractured arm and a broken finger – that sidelined him for 84 total days. Because of that, Contreras logged only 358 plate appearances in 2024 – his fewest in a full season since arriving in the big leagues back in 2016.

Contreras is an excellent hitter, especially for a catcher. He’s worked hard to improve his defense but is still slightly below average. (Nothing drastic.) But there’s nothing wrong with his right arm; in his two seasons with STL, Contreras had an above average throw-out rate in nabbing base stealers. This offseason the Cardinals are likely to gauge the amount of trade interest in Contreras, to see if a deal would put more young talent into the Cardinals’ system. It’s unknown if he’d like to be traded. He has enjoyed playing in St. Louis and for the Cardinals – but has not enjoyed the team’s failure to make the playoffs for two consecutive years.

Why Trade Contreras? The Cardinals are entering a rebuilding phase, and want to give expanded opportunities to younger players to see how they fit into the team’s future. The Cardinals have a surplus of catchers in Contreras, Ivan Herrera, Pedro Pages and hot-shot prospects Jimmy Crooks and Leonardo Bernal. Given the large catcher population in the St. Louis system, it makes sense to offload the remaining three years of the Contreras contract and set a new plan at the catcher position.

Herrera is a natural hitter, and his defensive flaws have been overstated by me and others. Herrera, 24, batted .301 last season with a .372 onbase percentage and .428 slugging percentage. And his power will only increase. Among STL position players that had a minimum 250 plate appearances last season, Herrera ranked second with a wRC+ that was 27 percent above league average offensively. (Only Contreras was better with the bat.) And Herrera accrued an impressive 2.1 WAR in only 72 games. Pages is touted for his defensive work and his handling of pitchers. Even though Pages appears to have a limited ceiling offensively, he did put up a .447 slugging percentage over his final 23 games last season, and flashed some power.

Why Keep Contreras? I’ve cited this a few times already, and I think it’s important to note it again. So here goes … since joining the Cardinals, Contreras is the best-hitting catcher in the majors. And that is based on the facts.

Not counting DH at-bats, here’s where Contreras ranks among MLB catchers in key categories since the start of 2023 – minimum 550 plate appearances:

• Batting average: .284, third
• Onbase percentage: .381, first
• Slugging percentage: .519, first
• OPS: .900, first
• wRC+: 148, first. (48% higher than the MLB average
• Walk rate: 10.8, sixth
• Wins Above Replacement: 5.3, eighth

In 579 plate appearances over the last two seasons Contreras has launched 30 homers and driven home 85 runs.

Taking his DH at-bats into account, Contreras rates among the top 20 right-handed hitters in the majors since the start of last season (minimum 800 plate appearances.) He’s been 33 percent above league average offensively (10th), ranks sixth in onbase percentage (.367), is 18th in slugging (.468) and 11th in OPS (.835.)

Since the start of 2023, The Cardinals’ group of right-handed batters have been two percent above league average offensively. Removing Contreras would weaken the offense. And Contreras, who competes hard, has leadership qualities. That shouldn’t be overlooked at a time when the Cardinals turn into a younger team.

Important To Keep In Mind: I want to go back to the catching prospects. They’re a relevant factor in any decision-making process over Contreras’ future. MLB Pipeline lists Crook as STL’s No. 5 prospect, and Bernal isn’t far beyond at No. 9.

Bernal, only 20, is a switch hitter and still developing as a hitter. His minor-league stats hint at good onbase capability but limited power. But it’s too soon to make any conclusions about his offensive potential. He has impressed with his defense and had a positive 34% caught-stealing rate in 2024.

Crooks, 23, is a fine catcher defensively. Pardon the cliche but he has a bulldog persona. By all accounts the pitchers like working with him. The older and more experienced Crooks is a year ahead of Bernal (at least) in the path to the majors. Crooks is a left-handed hitter who punishes right-handed pitchers. Last season at Double A Springfield, Crooks ripped righties for a .331 average, .404 onbase percentage, .528 slug and a .932 OPS. He has a highly-graded throwing arm. If the Cardinals decide to move on from Contreras, they have promising talent that’s ready to take over at catcher as soon as 2025. And even if Contreras is gone, the Cardinals will still have a waiting line of catchers on the tarmac.

Fun With Facts: For some reason – and it doesn’t make sense – Contreras hasn’t put up good numbers when used at DH in his two seasons here. In 268 plate appearances at DH he’s batted .220 with a .361 slugging percentage and has only five home runs. Contreras has walked a lot as a DH, and that gives him a .340 OBP at the spot. But he’s also struck out just under 28 percent of the time when installed at DH.

What Does Contreras Think? We don’t know if he’s open to the idea of being traded. But after the team’s final game of 2024, a frustrated Contreras challenged the St. Louis front office to improve the team for ’25. Here is a sequence of his quotes from that day:

– “There’s some areas that need to be addressed. I don’t know if the front office is going to, but… we didn’t come together as an offense at all, during the whole year. There’s a lot of holes throughout the lineup as well, from 1 to 9…”

– “The only thing we can control is show up next year and keep working. But as an organization, I think the Cardinals are one of the biggest organizations in baseball, and if I was them, if I was the front office, I’d have to be hungry to own this division … We haven’t owned this division the last two years.”

– When asked what the Cardinals need to get better for 2025, Contreras said “that’s a good question for the front office to answer. I’m not gonna answer that question. But I think if you look at the numbers as an offense, you will notice what’s possibly missing. As a group, we need to make an adjustment next year, for sure.”

– Contreras later spoke to television station FOX 2 in St. Louis: ““We cannot be okay with this result,” he said. “I know it might be better than (2023), but if you look at the Cardinals organization, it’s a huge organization for the MLB. We should be hungry to be on top of this NL Central. We haven’t done that in the last two years.”

Final Thoughts: I’d expect some action on the catcher front – one way or another. If the Cardinals retain Contreras, they certainly have attractive trade pieces in their colony of their young catchers. If the front office jumps into the trade market this offseason, there should be plenty of interest in their catching … be it Contreras or one of the younger dudes.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing. Here’s the link: TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

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Unless you wagered money on the Dodgers or remain charged and charmed by Freddie Freeman’s home-run heroics, the 2024 World Series is a dud.

I was hoping for a seven-game drama filled with twists and turns and mind-bending moments. You know, like Game 6 of the 2011 World Series – minus the Cardinals, of course. But the anticipated basebrawl between the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers has about as much suspense as a Russian presidential election.

The Dodgers won two at home, traveled to New York, and won again on Monday night to open a 3-0 series lead. As we know, the Yankees must win four in a row to make history by becoming the first team in World Series history to triumph after losing the first three games. Good luck.

Why are the Dodgers tank-rolling the Yankees?

Many reasons.

In no particular order:

1. The Yankees have scored just seven runs in three games. They are batting .186, slugging an anemic .294, and have performed 37 percent below average offensively per wRC+. Since leading Game 1 by a 3-2 score in the top of the 10th inning, the Yankees have been outscored 14-4 and out-homered 5-2. Let’s look at this another way. In the first three games the Yankees scored three ninth-inning runs to reduce LA’s lead, and scored another run in the 10th inning of Game 1. So in the first eight innings of these games, the Yankees have scored only three runs over 24 innings. And New York is 4 for 20 overall with runners in scoring position.

2. Aaron Judge is inoperative. At 6-7, the mountainous Yankee team captain is the tallest and largest player in the major leagues. And over the last eight seasons, he’s been one of the prolifically excellent hitters in modern big-league history. But the Dodgers have made Judge look small. He’s 1 for 12 in the series with seven strikeouts. That includes an 0-3 ledger (and two strikeouts) with runners in scoring position. For the entire postseason, Judge is batting .140 overall with a glaring 37.7 percent strikeout rate. And he’s 0 for 10 (seven on strikeouts) with runners in scoring position.

One more Judge stat, and this is almost incomprehensible. This postseason he’s chased non-strikes out of the zone at a rate of just under 38 percent. Too much! And Judge can’t lay off, which is why the Los Angeles pitchers continue to bait him with success. In 12 at-bats that have ended with Judge chasing a pitch out of the strike zone, he’s 0 for 12 with 11 strikeouts.

3. Freddie Freeman and October Glory: In the first three games of this World Series, Freeman has homered three times and driven in seven runs in 12 at-bats. As a team the Yankees also have three home runs and seven RBIs in this World Series … but in 102 at-bats. Yep. True fact. Freddie Freeman, by himself, has matched the HR and RBI production of the entire Yankees team. Amazing. And the guy couldn’t even play in two of the final three NLCS games because of a bad ankle.

4. Judge is hardly alone in the case of the batting-box blues. Among the Yankee regulars, only Giancarlo Stanton and Juan Soto are batting over .250. And four other Yankees – Gleyber Torres, Jazz Chisholm, Austin Wells and Anthony Volpe – have an OPS of .630 or worse. The starting NY infield has collectively gone 8 for 45 (.181) with one extra-base hit, a lone RBI and a 26.4 percent strikeout rate.

5. The Los Angeles lineup is much deeper and smarter than the New York lineup. The Dodgers aren’t exactly tearing it up – as a team they’re hitting .213 for the series – but they’re getting contributions from a lot of hitters. Through the first three games, five Dodgers are batting .273 or higher, six have knocked in runs, six have at least one extra-base hit, and seven have scored. And the Dodgers have compensated for a low team batting average by making the hits count. So far 11 of LA’s 20 hits have gone for extra bases, and the Dodgers are out-slugging the Yankees .457 to .294.

With a wide distribution of offense, the Dodgers succeeded in winning three games despite having Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani combine for a .189 average and two RBIs in 28 plate appearances. Another difference: the Dodgers don’t get themselves out by chasing too many bad pitches. That’s why LA has the edge in contact rate (79% to 64%) and has struck out only 17 times compared to New York’s 31.

6. One team has thrived on excellent starting pitching. And it isn’t the Yankees. Gerrit Cole pitched well for the Yankees in Game 1. But in the next two starts, Carlos Rodon and Clarke Schmidt lasted an average of only three innings, getting strafed for a 10.50 ERA and four homers. Heading into the series, New York’s starting pitching was supposed to give the Yankees an advantage over the Dodgers. It hasn’t played out that way. Los Angeles starters (in order) Jack Flaherty, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Walker Buehler have thrown 16 and ⅔ innings at the Yankees, allowing only three earned runs for a 1.62 ERA. The bullpens have been about even, but Yankee manager Aaron Boone had to cover more innings with his relievers and has made some puzzling choices. He’s catching a lot of hell from Yankee fans and NY media.

7. Managing. Defense. Baserunning: I don’t think you want me to go into a lengthy review of all of these areas. But Boone has been criticized for a number of things, including those pitching/bullpen decisions Why did he pull Gerrit Cole so soon in Game 1? Why did Boone go all Mike Matheny-Michael Wacha and bring in a rusty and physically compromised pitcher that hadn’t pitched in 28 days to serve up Freeman’s game-winning missile to terminate the Yanks in Game 1? Dodgers manager Dave Roberts has been virtually flawless during the first three games. The Yankee defense has been raggedy; two misplays (Soto, Torres) probably cost them Game 1. And it hasn’t been much better after that. The Yankee baserunning isn’t sharp. The Dodgers are more opportunistic; the perfect example was Tommy Edman making an intelligent read on a shallow, fading fly ball to right in Game 3 – taking off from second base immediately to sprint home and give LA a 3-0 lead. The Yankees lost a key runner on the bases when the plodding Giancarlo Stanton was easily thrown out at home plate when trying to score from second base on a single to left. Dumb play.

8. You may have heard: former Cardinals are giving LA a lift. Tommy Edman is having a spectacular postseason, batting .345 with a .545 slugging percentage, five doubles, two homers, four steals, 13 RBIs and nine runs scored in 14 games. That haul includes his .364 average with two doubles and a homer in the three World Series games. Jack Flaherty got clobbered in two of his first four postseason starts but pitched two gems in crucial series-opening wins over the Mets (NLCS) and Yankees (World Series.) In the two pressure assignments Flaherty was touched for only two earned runs in 12 and ⅔ innings.

9. The Dodgers were steeled by hardship. Their starting rotation was virtually wiped out by injuries during the regular season, leaving manager Dave Roberts to scramble to fill multiple postseason starts with all-bullpen games. He will use that format again Tuesday in Game 4. I know the Dodgers have a monster payroll, but they still had to grind their way to 95 regular-season wins to outlast the Padres and the Diamondbacks and win the NL West. They survived a scare against the Padres in the NLDS, trailing in the series 2-1 and facing elimination with the final two games held in San Diego. But the Dodgers won two in a row to eliminate the Padres, disposed of the Mets in six games, and have pushed the Yankees into a big ditch. On the brink of having their season end, the Dodgers are 9-2 in the postseason after being down and in major danger vs. San Diego.

The Yankees had a relatively easy time of it in taking the AL East this season, then won two playoff rounds against Kansas City and Cleveland, two low-payroll teams with unimposing offenses. The Dodgers had to take a harder road than the Yankees to reach this point of the season, and that has made a difference in this matchup. The Dodgers will go for the World Series sweep on Tuesday evening.

Thanks for reading…

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing. Here’s the link: @TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

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Missouri won’t be invited to compete in the first 12-team national college football postseason tournament. The Tigers are not up to standard. Horrible losses to Texas A&M and Alabama ruined the Tigers’ chances, but Mizzou can still have a positive season.

Was Missouri overrated at the beginning of the season? Yes, no question about it. But no misdemeanors were committed. There were no infractions. That’s how it goes with the college football polls. The first set of Top 25 rankings going into the new year are largely shaped by what happened in the previous season. And of course, the traditional powers – Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, etc. – are usually escorted straight into the VIP section. They benefit from decades of success, reputation, and the assumption of greatness.

Missouri isn’t a member of that particular club. But as an SEC team that went a fantastic 11-2 last season, the Tigers received some of that preseason VIP treatment. We can thank the SEC for that. Had MU gone 11-2 last year as a resident of the Big 12 conference, we wouldn’t have seen the squad go from 11th nationally in the preseason poll to No. 6 after defeating Murray State and Buffalo.

That was a courtesy extended to an SEC brand, because Mizzou had done nothing – early in the 2024 campaign – to warrant top-six status. And there is a downside. Anytime an up-and-coming hot shot moves into the elite and exclusive section of the polls, it makes the team a target … and the object of scorn and ridicule if they slip and fall. The skeptics line up and prepare to vandalize the school logo. (What are THEY doing here? Who have THEY beaten?)

At this point, eight games in, Missouri and the fan base has nothing to squawk about in terms of the team’s poll position. After getting stomped at Alabama, the Coach Eli Drinkwitz and his undergraduates were still given a nod of respect from the voters with this week’s No. 25 ranking. And ESPN’s College Football Power Index lists Mizzou at No. 24. On top of that, the FPI gives the Tigers a 7.7 percent chance of making the playoff. That’s so polite!

Missouri hasn’t played a good all around game this season. The schedule was hardly ominous, let alone treacherous. But the Tigers turned the journey into something hazardous. Missouri had to erase a deficit (at home) to get by Boston College, were fortunate to nudge past Vanderbilt, got blown out at Texas A&M, had a close-call win over a mediocre Auburn team, and lost by 34 at Alabama.

In the losses to Texas A&M and Alabama, Missouri got pummeled and outscored 75-10. In going 2-2 in SEC play so far, the Tigers have been outscored by 58 points. And the touchdown tally is rather bleak: 14 touchdowns for Mizzou’s SEC opponents, to only six TDs for Mizzou.

In theory – if not totally in reality – Missouri has four winnable games remaining in the regular season. After a bye week, the Tigers will host Oklahoma, travel to South Carolina, travel to Mississippi State, and then welcome Arkansas into Faurot Field on Nov. 30.

On average, the FPI simulations have Mizzou (6-2) finishing the regular season with 8.3 wins and 3.7 losses. Let’s just round it off to a clean 8-4. Would that be a disappointment?

Given the immense preseason hype, 8-4 would probably be viewed as a disappointment by the locals. But considering the stagnant state of this Mizzou offense, 8-4 seems about right … and perhaps a bit optimistic.

And really, that’s the No. 1 problem. I’m not even going to waste time trying to analyze the Missouri defense and special teams. This underperforming and underwhelming Mizzou offense is terribly deflating – on the field, and up in the stands. Too many drives stall for the team, and too many moods are ruined for the fans.

Let’s walk through this, shall we? And I apologize in advance for all of the numbers … but the stats completely tell the story of the team’s downturn – and depression – offensively.

1. Missouri’s scoring average has dropped by a shocking rate. Here’s a list of points scored per game in various categories, comparing 2023 to 2024.

– Against power conference teams: 33.1 points per game last season, 17.6 points this season.

– Against FBS-level winning teams: 30.3 points per game last season, and 13.3 points this season.

– Against ranked opponents: 28.0 points per game last season, and 5.0 points this season.

– Against SEC teams: 35.9 points per game last season and 15.3 points this season. This could change – probably for the better – during the final four-game stretch.

Considering the evidence that’s been collected so far, Missouri will have a hard time getting to 10-2 or 9-3 by the end of the regular season. And I say that without knowing the extent of quarterback Brady Cook’s injuries. Will he miss games? If so, how many? And if Cook plays, how well can he perform when limited by a high ankle sprain and an unspecified injury to his right (throwing) hand?

2. The Missouri passing game is embarrassingly inaccurate. And no, I am not exaggerating. This is a serious issue. The lack of sharpness in the air attack is bringing the offense down. OK, here’s the breakdown, comparing 2023 (to the left) and 2024 (to the right). For context, I’ll include the national ranking in each category, with the sample size limited to games against fellow power conference opponents. There are 69 power-conference teams this season. There were 68 power teams in 2023.

Catchable ball rate: 81.6% percent last season, ranked 31st – and 73.7% this season, ranked 69th among 69.

On-target throws: 71.7 percent last season, ranked 16th – and 57.9% this season, ranked 69th among 69.

Yards per passing attempt: 8.6 last season, ranked 13th – and that’s slipped to 6.2 this season ranked 59th. In addition, Mizzou ranked 9th in adjusted passing yards per attempt last season but is 55th this season.

Touchdown-pass percentage: 5.6% last season, 25th. And 2.4% this season, 63rd.

Passer rating: 101.7 last season, No. 12 … and 74.3 this season, No. 56.

Pass-rush pressure percentage: Missouri was 18th best at limiting pressure on the QB last season but that has skidded to 47th in 2024.

Positive passing-play percentage: 40% last season, No. 17. And 37.9% this season, 58th.

“Boom” passing-play percentage: 26% last season, No. 6. And only 17 percent this season, No. 62.

“Bust” passing-play percentage: 15% last season, No. 12. And 22% this season, No. 59.

Expected Points Added: 9th in the passing game last season, and 54th this season.

To put it mildly, the substantial decline of the MU passing attack is alarming.

3. And we can’t blame all of this on backup quarterback Drew Pyne. Listen, Brady Cook was struggling with his accuracy before he hurt his ankle in the Auburn game on Oct. 19. This is something I’ve been discussing regularly this season. Here’s what I’m referring to, and I’ll limit the stats to accuracy measures – and also go with the passer rating. One more note: these rankings are limited to the 87 power-conference quarterbacks that have attempted at least 30 passes against power-conference opponents.

Catchable ball rate: Cook ranks 74th among the 87 quarterbacks, and Pyne is 87th.

On-target rate: Cook ranks 85th among the 87 QBs, and Pyne is 86th. Mercy.

Passer rating: Cook (87.9) is 42nd among 87, and Pyne is last with a 19.8 rating. That’s quite a comedown for Cook; in 2023 he ranked 20th in passer rating among 76 power-conference quarterbacks who attempted at least 100 passes against power-conference defenses.

In the Expected Points Added metric by Sports Info Solutions, Cook ranked 11th nationally (power conference QBs) compared to 40th in EPA so far this season.

4. Because of the erratic quarterback play and accuracy problems, Mizzou wide receiver Luther Burden III is being wasted. Such a shame.. And it’s really pathetic. Here’s a comparison of some key stats in 2023 to 2024 …

– Receiving yards per game: 81.5 last season, 65.4 this season.

– Yards per target: 9.1 last season, 7.6 this season.

– Yards per reception: 13.6 this season, 11.7 this season.

– “Boom” play reception rate: 26.4% last season, 23% this season.

– “Bust” play rate: 16.5% last season, 21% this season. Burden’s “bust rate” is the sixth worst among qualifying power conference receivers in games against power-conference defenses.

Combined, Cook and Pyne have completed only 8 of 39 passes this season on throws that travel at least 20 yards.

5. There are other factors: pass protection and the inconsistent running game. This year’s O-line isn’t as firm as the 2023 version in the important task of warding off pass rushers. Last season the MU offensive line ranked 26th among the 68 power-conference teams in blown-block rate when pass blocking. This year, the blown-block rate is slightly higher, ans the unit has dropped to 48th in the rankings. To the O-line’s credit, it has done a much cleaner job of blocking the run, with a blown-block rate that ranks 32nd among power-conference teams. Last season MU was ranked 54th in the category.

Why is this important?

Because Cook is awful when pass rushers close in on him.

When rushed in 2023, Cook completed 40 percent of his passing attempts and had respectable numbers on catchable-pass rates and on-target throws. This season Cook has completed only 31 percent when pressured, and his on-target rate is down by nearly 20 percent from last season. When under pass-rush heat last season, Cook averaged 7.1 yards per attempt. This year, that has fizzled to 3.7 yards per attempt when under duress. It’s unsettling to see the across-the-board deterioration in Cook’s form.

No surprise, but it’s been tough to replace Cody Schrader, who led the SEC in rushing last season (among other achievements.) In games against power-conference opponents, Mizzou is averaging only 3.8 yards per rush (42nd) after averaging 4.6 yards per carry (20th) last season. In games against power-conference teams, Missouri is averaging 141.6 yards per game (37th) this season after rumbling to 172 rushing yards per contest (21st) with Schrader taking the lead. One of Schrader’s strengths was his discipline in attacking the designed run gap; he was among the best backs in the nation at doing that in 2023. MU’s current backs do a fine job in this area, but Schrader was at a different level.

Schrader was also sneaky-good when coming out of the backfield as a receiver.

The 2024 Tigers have been solid enough in running the football, but the ground game isn’t as reliable. And injuries to Nate Noel have slowed the engine. With Mizzou so poor at doing damage on passes that travel 20+ yards this season, it’s become a lot easier for defenses to put an extra tracker or two in the box.

This offense isn’t working. You can blame it on a number of factors including the play-calling of offensive coordinator Kirby Moore, or the work of the head coach. Offense is supposed to be a Drinkwitz specialty. But this offense must fly again, and that will be a challenge. Cook is hampered by injuries, but his performance had declined long before that.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

The post Bernie’s MIZ-ZOU Review: Missouri’s Passing Game Has Deteriorated. The Numbers Are Shocking. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE WORLD SERIES

If you believe that humongous payrolls win championships, then the 2024 World Series will not give us an October Surprise. The New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers have every financial advantage that exists, and they collect superstar players at extravagant price points. There are no underdogs here. There are overlords.

I’d say this series will be a coin flip … it should be that close. But given the massive bankrolls, oceans of revenue and soaring franchise value of both teams, the coin flip would have to be done with a 1933
Saint-Gaudens Double Eagle, which sold for $18.8 million in a 2021 auction. So, I say we forget about the coin-flip metaphor. No figures are available for 2024, but in 2023, the Yankees were reported to have revenue of $679 million – with the Dodgers in the same gated community at $580 million.

I plan on watching the first World Series conflict between these coastal empires since 1981. And I will watch with considerable enthusiasm.

I like seeing traditional, old-line, heritage-certified franchises play in the big one. Not every year — but at least every so often. The Yankees were the best team in the American League. The Dodgers were the top team in the National League. We don’t see the two best teams in the 30-franchise industry collide in October too often, so this is a treat. This is no reason to guzzle haterade. Especially if you believe that Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. should commit to a much larger payroll. What fan doesn’t want to see their team rolling through poorer opponents on the strength of big-payroll muscle?

And this is supposed to be entertainment. If a Diamondbacks-Rangers series gets you aroused, well, good for ya. As a neutral observer, I prefer watching the stars. And in this showdown, the star power is too luminous to ignore.

Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Yoshinobu Yamamoto for the Dodgers. Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Giancarlo Stanton and Gerrit Cole for the Yankees. The appeal transcends the borders. The appeal is global. Ohtani’s popularity in Japan is so dominant, that the starting times for these games – right around the breakfast hour in Japan – will all but shut down the nation as millions and millions stay home from work to take in the show.

I keep hearing that “nobody cares” outside of New York or LA, but that opinion is based on resentment and envy. These are not your typical lovable teams. They are enormously wealthy, yes, but money doesn’t buy championships. Money gives you a better chance to compete for championships. And there is a difference.

The Cardinals are among the precious-few franchises, but I don’t recall hearing Redbird fans complaining about their favorite team being an onstage presence in 12 postseasons over 16 years from 2000 through 2015. We miss that, yes?

OK, who will win?

Well, it depends.

Here are some random thoughts:

1. Bullpens have been incredibly important in this postseason. The Yankees have more reliable starting pitchers than the Dodgers, so the Yanks (in theory) won’t have to depend on their relievers as much. Again that’s the theory. Basically the Yankees go into this with four capable starters and a 3.89 starting-pitcher ERA this postseason. The Dodgers have only three starters, and the third (Walker Buehler) is wobbly. The LA starters have a 6.08 ERA in the playoffs – lasting only 3.6 innings per start – and have only 27 strikeouts in 40 innings. That means more work for the Dodger bullpen. Their relievers have pitched 57 postseason innings so far, with the Yankee bullpen guys working a relatively light 38 and ⅔ innings.

Los Angeles manager Dave Roberts will have to construct at least two “bullpen” games and maybe a third. That’s tough. And the Dodgers won’t have their best high-leverage reliever, Evan Phiilips, who was left off the World Series roster because of an arm injury. That’s a potentially significant loss.

2. I don’t know if any pitching staff can control these offenses. The Yankees and Dodgers ranked among the top four MLB offenses during the regular season in several key categories: runs per game, onbase percentage, walk rate, slugging, home runs, and OPS. Both lineups wear down pitchers by taking patient at-bats – refusing to chase most out-of-zone pitches to wait for a strike. That approach is tiring for the dude on the mound. The plate discipline is a large factor, because at some point the pitcher has to throw strikes to avoid issuing another walk. And here’s why that is so important: during the regular season the Dodgers led the majors with 175 home runs and a .628 slugging percentage against heart-of-the zone strikes. The Yankees were second with 173 homers and a .600 slug on heart-of-the zone offerings.

3. The condition of Freddie Freeman’s sprained ankle is an important factor. The Dodger first basemen has been limping, and missed two NLCS games, but will return to the lineup for Game 1. Buytr Freeman has a .219 average in 32 at-bats with no extra-base hits. In normal circumstances, the Dodgers have a deeper lineup than the Yankees … but with Freeman less than 100 percent I don’t know if that applies in the World Series.

4. The Dodgers have to neutralize New York’s bombers. In wiping out Cleveland in the ALCS, Juan Soto, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton combined for nine of the team’s 10 home runs and 19 of the 29 RBIs. Maybe the long layoff cooled the bats down. We’ll see. But the Yankees have gotten superb postseason hitting from Gleyber Torres and Anthony Volpe and it isn’t much fun to go against that lineup.

5. Three former Cardinals will have a say in this series. Tommy Edman and Jack Flaherty for the Dodgers, and Luke Weaver for the Yankees. The Yanks plan to start lefty Carlos Rodon in two games, and he could appear in a third depending on how the series is proceeding. The Yankees also have a good lefty reliever in Tim Hill, and he’ll be a prominent part of the late-inning matchups. The switch-hitting Edman has destroyed left-handed pitching since joining the Dodgers and his ability to do so again looms large. In fact, the Dodgers as a team were the top-hitting offense vs. lefties in 2024. Flaherty has made three postseason starts; two were simply awful and one was great. He’ll start Game 1, and for one early sign, check on his velocity. Weaver has done an outstanding job as New York’s closer since taking over the role late in the season. But teams have had a good chance to study him, and Cleveland got to Weaver in the ALCS. In his final three appearances vs. the Guardians in the series, Weaver was socked for five hits, two homers, a .294 average, a .706 slug and a 6.23 ERA. Is Weaver more vulnerable? Maybe.

6. A stat that could really matter: New York relievers love to throw changeups … lots of changeups … especially Tommy Kahnle and Weaver. Well, the Dodgers were second in MLB in slugging and third in batting average against changeups this season. No team hit more home runs (25) than Los Angeles on changeups during the 2024 regular season.

7. The little things could be big things, and that’s especially true in close games in the late innings. The Dodgers were one of the best baserunning teams in the majors this year, ranking fourth according to the FanGraphs metric. And via the FanGraphs metric, the Yankees were the worst team in the majors at running the bases in 2024. If we use defensive runs saved as a measure, the Dodgers were ranked 3rd overall this season, with the Yankees rated a respectable 12th. But the Yankees have better defensive range than the Dodgers.

And keep an eye on this one … as I mentioned earlier, both of these offenses like to take pitches and draw walks. And pitch-framing artistry by the catchers could give one side an advantage in the battle for the strike zone. The Yankees’ Austin Wells was an excellent +12 in framing runs this season, and New York’s No. 2 catcher Jose Trevino was a +10. On the other side, Dodger catcher Will Smith had the worst framing numbers among regular MLB catchers. Given the exceptional plate discipline displayed by both sets of hitters, the Yankee catchers could finesse extra strikes for their pitchers … and Will Smith could cost his pitchers strikes with poor framing.

PICKING A WINNER

Why the Yankees: based on the postseason trends, the Yankees seemingly have a stronger bullpen that probably won’t be as stressed by innings overload. Could that determine the outcome? Absolutely.

Why the Dodgers: They have a lengthier lineup, even if Freeman isn’t himself. Los Angeles is averaging a postseason-best 6.4 runs per game, with five different batters whipping up an OPS of .800 or higher: Betts, Muncy, Ohtani, Kiké Hernández and Edman. The Dodgers lead the postseason field with 20 homers, and have a higher OBP and slugging percentage than the Yankees.

It’s a tough call … but I didn’t like what I saw from the NY bullpen late in the ALCS, with Cleveland making some unexpected breakthroughs. If Aaron Judge gets in the zone, I won’t have as much confidence in this pick … but I’ll go with the Dodgers in seven games.

Thanks for reading …

Have a nice weekend …

–Bernie

The post Bernie: 2024 World Series, Bring On The Stars. Who Will Win, the Yankees Or Dodgers? appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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It will be fun to watch Tommy Edman play in his first World Series when the 2024 fall classic begins Friday night in Los Angeles. Dodgers and Yankees. Huge stars, huge treasuries, huge media markets, huge hype.

Oh, and Jack Flaherty is set to start Game 1 for the LA. This will give some Cardinals fans an opportunity to revise history and pretend they wanted to see St. Louis keep Jack Flaherty – when in fact, none of them felt that way in the summer of 2023. But this fakery only applies if Flaherty aces the Yankees. If Jack endures a vicious flogging Friday, then the phonies among us will revert back to their usual stance of, “I never liked that guy anyway.”

It’s harmless.

I’m much more interested in Edman, and I’ll get to him a little later. He doesn’t fit into the predictably lazy narrative that’s taken shape in the run-up to first pitch. You know, it goes something like this: We’re seeing two store-bought teams who paid their way into the postseason and will now try to close the deal on the purchase of a World Series trophy. Baseball has turned into a rich-man rumble. No beggars allowed.

The highest level of the sport is the domain of teams that are willing to use their financial power to crush smaller-market franchises under the weight of gold-plated Brinks trucks. In terms of the combined 40-man payroll of the two teams, this is the most expensive matchup in World Series history.

The Yankees ranked second in 40-man payroll, and the Dodgers were third. Combined, the two industry titans invested a total of nearly $667 million in player talent in 2024. Baseball’s middle class has a sliver of a chance to win it all. Baseball’s low-payroll entities might as well move down to Triple A, because the big prize is out of their reach.

Yeah, well, a few things about this:

1. This is just New York’s second World Series appearance in the last 16 seasons. The Yanks won the World Series in 2009, then went 15 consecutive seasons without getting into the final round before this year. If it’s so easy to pay an exorbitant price for a VIP pass into the World Series, then why have the Yankees been missing for so long.

2. The Dodgers can match or even exceed the Yankees in revenue flow and wanton aggressiveness – but Dodger blue hasn’t won a World Series in a full and normal season since 1988. That’s several decades.

3. Having the financial muscle is a clear advantage, but it isn’t everything. If this exclusive baseball club is open to only the wealthiest of membership applicants, then please explain this: starting with the 2002 postseason, 14 different major-league franchises have won the World Series … and 21 of the 30 teams have come away with at least one league pennant.

How can a club be considered ultra exclusive when 70 percent of the current MLB teams have gotten in over the last 23 seasons?

4. In the last 23 postseasons, this will be only the second World Series to feature two top-five payroll teams. The other time was the Dodgers (No. 3) and Red Sox (No. 1) in 2018.

5. Over the previous seven postseasons prior to 2024, seven of the 14 World Series duelists have been ranked in the bottom half of the MLB payroll rankings. That’s 50 percent! And the seven lower-half payroll teams that advanced to the World Series had an average payroll ranking of 21st.

Now, back to Edman …

Edman was traded to the Dodgers in a three-team arrangement that delivered starting pitcher Erick Fedde and platoon bat Tommy Pham to St. Louis. The Cardinals were only 2 and ½ games out of a wild-card spot on the day of the trade, so the desire to improve the team was commendable.

Following wrist surgery and multiple setbacks, Edman didn’t play a single inning for the Cardinals in 2024 and was unable to make his Dodger debut until Aug. 19. But he’s made a significant impact as one of the Dodgers’ leading men in their charge to the World Series. Los Angeles fought off the Padres in a tense, five-game division round series, then dismissed the Mets in a six-game NLCS.

Edman was relatively quiet (.235 average) against San Diego, but went off on the Mets for a .407 average, .393 onbase percentage and .630 slugging percentage in 27 at-bats. Edman put the New Yorkers down with 11 RBIs in the NLCS and was voted series MVP.

For the postseason, Edman’s 12 RBIs put him in a tie with Mookie Betts and are one more than Shohei Ohtani’s 11. Wow.

After the Dodgers completed the deal for Edman, third base coach Dino Ebel got a call from a gentleman you’ve probably heard of: Albert Pujols. And Pujols didn’t hold back in giving his assessment of the move.

“He said you’re going to love this guy because he’s a baseball player,” Ebel told the Los Angeles Times. “He can hit from both sides of the plate, he’s shown some power, he can play short, second and center field.

“He’s fundamentally sound, he makes the routine play, he knows how to run the bases, he can bunt, he can hit-and-run, and he’s got the talent to be on a championship-caliber team and to win a World Series.”

We should be delighted for Edman, who goes about his business with joy and passion. He’s a tough competitor. He doesn’t back off. He’s eager to take on any challenge his team puts on him. Want him to play five or six different positions during a season? No problem. He’s got this. After his last 1 and ½ seasons with the Cardinals, the change must be nice for Edman.

I don’t blame any Cardinal fan for feeling jolts of anger and pangs of frustration after seeing another player leave the STL organization to find more personal (and team) success in a new environment.

But I have no desire to take out a membership in the Redbird chapter of the second-guesser association. Not in Edman’s case. There are plenty of reasons to heap valid criticisms on the St. Louis front office, but this isn’t one of them. The Cardinals did the right thing. As noted earlier, the Cards had an opportunity to make the playoffs at the time of the transaction, and it’s bogus to deny that.

The postseason got out of reach because of an offense that averaged a puny 3.3 runs per game with a .234 average while losing 12 of 17 games in during a frozen state that began Aug. 1. Edman wouldn’t have made a difference, and Fedde is in place for 2025 — or he can be flipped in a trade (possibly) for a good return as the Cardinals begin a rebuilding phase.

Edman wasn’t ready to play by early August, and his belated surgery and long-term absence ruined the plan to have him aligned as the starter in center field. It was the first thing that went wrong for the team in a season that ended too soon – as in, no postseason for the second consecutive year.

The Cardinals paid a large share of his $7 million salary for 2024. Edman will receive a guaranteed $9.5 million in 2025, and can become a free agent after next season.

The Cardinals have an abundance of middle infielders and-or utility types. Those guys are already here, and others will follow. The list includes Masyn Winn, Brendan Donovan, Nolan Gorman, Thomas Saggese, and J.J. Wetherholt, the seventh overall selection in the 2024 draft.

Victor Scott II will get the chance to win the starting job in center field. There is value in the defensive work provided by Michael Siani – a superb center fielder (and baserunner) who can play at any of the three outfield spots. And Chase Davis, only 21, sparked offensively this past season in his second year of pro ball. He’s been used in center in the minors.

Any honest (and realistic) assessment would conclude this: Edman’s time in St. Louis was coming to a close, as the roster churn continues.

Edman was 22 percent above league average offensively as a rookie in 2018, but from 2019 through 2023 his offense tailed off and was five percent below league average over the three seasons.

In his last four active seasons in St. Louis, Edman was 10 percent below league average when facing right-handed pitching. That trend was unlikely to reverse in a lasting way; during the regular season, Edman had a .181 average and .523 OPS for the Dodgers against righties.

An annoying aspect of Edman’s move to Los Angeles is the local overreaction to his amazing NLCS. Everything – good or bad – is magnified and blown up during the postseason. I’m happy for Edman. Everybody should be happy for Edman. But that’s about it. It’s totally fine to mention all of the STL players who have found success in their new homes, but Edman’s case is no reason to bash the Cardinals.

Observers see Edman beating up the Mets for six games, and automatically assume he’d do something similar here … for months at a time during the regular season. As always, large samples are more meaningful and revealing than small samples.

I’m amused (but not surprised) by the selective memories out there. Edman was a hitting machine against the Mets, and that surely presented a dramatic contrast to the dormant offense that the Cardinals dragged into the postseason from 2019 through 2022.

But I see no reason to revise history on that front, either. Edman was part of those Cardinal teams. He had an excellent series against the Braves in the 2019 NLDS … and then … nothing. Or not much.

In the matchup against the Braves, Edman batted .316 with a .381 OBP and .579 slug in five games. He had three doubles, a triple, scored three runs and drove in two. He had two hits, two RBIs and scored three runs in the winner-take-all Game 5, helping to lead St. Louis to a 13-1 blowout. But after that, Edman went 7 for 39 (.180) in his final 10 postseason games as a Cardinal.

Add it all up, and Edman had a career .224/.274/.310 slash line in 15 postseason games for the Redbirds. He’s in a better spot now, and that’s enough. He gives Cardinals fans a reason to root for the Dodgers in this World Series.

As the Cardinals pivot to the future, Edman wouldn’t have been part of the next wave. So I’ll decline to pretend otherwise.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing. Here’s the link: @TheBernieShow

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie: A Closer Look At Tommy Edman, The Cardinals and The Trade That Sent Him To The Dodgers. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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As the executive who has been hired to guide the Cardinals out of their lapsed, retrograde state and into a smarter and more forward-thinking future, Chaim Bloom is off to a magnificent start.

With his first official move, Bloom put his insignia on the St. Louis baseball operation with the hiring of a young dynamo who comes here from the advanced baseball think tank run by the shrewd and resourceful Cleveland Guardians.

Rob Cerfolio, age 32, has the fancy title that fits his new role. He’s the assistant general manager who will oversee the player development and performance departments. Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. put Bloom in charge of a crucially important assignment: to modernize and reconstruct a broken minor-league and player development system.

The Cards have drafted plenty of good players in recent years but haven’t done a good enough job of preparing them for the majors. These young and future Cardinals have lacked effective instruction, coaching expertise and technologically-advanced tools. All of that will change under Bloom. And in recruiting Cerfolio, Bloom has found the ideal fit for the mission that is now underway.

Cerfolio joined the Guardians as an intern in 2015. He’s worked his way up through the organizational hierarchy. This industry up-and-comer spent the last three years as Cleveland’s director of player development. Cerfolio has had 10 years to absorb the immense knowledge that flows through the Guardians’ baseball structure. He has learned all of the intricate details about creating a model player-development system, finding great people to run it, and then drafting or signing the young talent to stock it.

When viewed as a tandem, Bloom and Cerfolio not only specialize in creating a start-of-the-art talent pipeline overall, but their backgrounds have displayed a special knack for identifying and cultivating young pitching.

Bloom in Tampa Bay.

Cerfolio in Cleveland.

And now they’re in St. Louis to lead a revival.

Think of elite baseball education that Cerfolio will bring to his new challenge. And I’m not referring to Yale; Bloom and Cerfolio are both Yalies. Oh my goodness. What is this world coming to?

Consider this about Cerfolio’s 10 seasons inside the Guardians’ baseball department:

1. From 2015 through 2024, Cleveland had the fourth-best regular-season winning percentage (.552) among the 30 MLB teams. Only the Dodgers, Astros and Yankees won more games over that time. Across the 10 seasons, the Guards won more games than the Cardinals, Cubs, Red Sox, Mets, Giants, Brewers, Phillies, Blue Jays, Twins and Rangers … among others.

2. From 2015 through 2024, Cleveland ranked sixth in the majors with 20 postseason victories. What’s so great about 20 postseason wins in 10 seasons? Perspective, my friends. In those same 10 seasons the Cardinals won five postseason games despite spending a helluva lot more money than the Guardians. Through the 10 seasons Cleveland also won more postseason games than a list of big spenders including the Red Sox, Mets, Padres, Blue Jays, Giants and Rangers.

3. Here’s what makes the regular-season and postseason success so impressive: over the 10 seasons Cleveland had an average annual payroll ranking of 23rd, and had a bottom-six payroll in four of those years. The Guardians never ranked higher than 15th in the annual payroll standings. Their 2016 American League championship team ranked 23rd in payroll. Two other of Cleveland’s postseason teams ranked 24th and 27th.

4. Under the new leadership, homegrown talent will become even a larger priority. And the Cards will likely be more active in the international markets. This season Cleveland’s 40-man roster had 24 players drafted and developed within the system. There was only one player who initially came to Cleveland as a free-agent signing. Twelve players were acquired via trade. And three were Rule 5 draft picks. The 2024 Guardians also had 13 international players in their 40-man talent pool including Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan, Brayan Rocchio and Jhonkensy Noel.

As my friend Josh Jacobs noted in a piece written Tuesday morning:

“The Guardians roster is littered with homegrown talent or under-the-radar names they were able to acquire in trades or free agency before maximizing their talent in Cleveland. Steven Kwan, Will Brennan, Bo Naylor, Brayan Rocchio, Jhonkensy Noel, Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herrin, Eli Morgan, Andrew Walters, and Daniel Schneemann were all drafted or signed via international amateur free agency since Cerfolio joined their front office — while names like David Fry, Kyle Manzardo, Emmanuel Clase, and Andres Gimenez were all acquired by the club before truly breaking out at the MLB-level.”

5. Think about what this means for St. Louis pitching in the coming seasons. The Cardinals must restore their lost strength. I’m talking about the way this organization used to draft and develop good pitching for an internal conveyor that gave them an edge over many competitors. But that area lapsed, and the Cardinals lost ground. The ballclub is trying to get the pitching factory back on line. And with Bloom and Cerfolio in place I have to like STL’s chances.

Bloom was a big part of the process that kept low-budget Tampa Bay rich in pitching talent. From 2007 through 2018, only four teams allowed fewer runs than the Rays. And only two teams gave up fewer runs than Tampa Bay’s starting pitchers.

And quality pitching is a distinguished hallmark of Cleveland’s baseball identity. During Cerfolio’s 10 years in “The Land,” the Guardians ranked No. 3 in the majors in team ERA, were tied for third in starting-pitching ERA, and had MLB’s best bullpen ERA.

There’s already some whining (as always) about DeWitt being “cheap” by restructuring the baseball ops to get the franchise back to a more economical and sensible way of building a baseball team.

I realize these folks have all the answers, but evidently they’ve never heard of Jeff Luhnow.

It’s called “payroll efficiency.”

And it has nothing to do with being cheap.

It has everything to do with being smart.

I vote for intelligence. I don’t need DeWitt to start a bonfire with all of the bad money spent on payroll. That payroll waste is a prominent reason why the Cardinals have missed the playoffs five times in the last eight full seasons.

Bloom, Cerfolio (and others to come) will give the Cardinals their best payroll efficiency since DeWitt hired Luhnow from the outside in the early aughts.

Luhnow wasn’t a “baseball guy.” Bloom isn’t a “baseball guy.” Even though he pitched for Yale, Cerfolio isn’t a “baseball guy” either.

Some Cardinals fans are bizarrely obsessed with this. They expect Branch Rickey to return from the grave, or something. They want a codger to take control of this baseball team. Give me a REAL baseball guy, dammit!

My gosh, people. Please stop. I say this as a 65-year old man who loves nostalgia. I have a heart filled with warm sentiment in fond remembrances of years gone by. Sure, I would like to return to, say, 1966. But it’s 2024. It won’t be long before 2025 is here. Evolve and adapt. Evolve and adapt. Evolve and adapt. It ain’t that hard. If I can do it, you can do it. Analytics and metrics won’t kill you or cause hair loss.

Theo Epstein, another Yale man, wasn’t a “baseball guy,” either. But it’s funny how all of those beloved, old-school baseball guys failed to build a World Series winner for the Cubs and the Red Sox. Before Epstein was put in charge of the baseball ops in Boston, the Red Sox hadn’t won a World Series since 1918. Epstein built Boston teams that won two during his time there, in 2004 and ‘2007. The Cubs had famously failed to win a World Series since 1908, but Epstein raised that Titanic as well in 2016.

It’s important for the Cardinals to hire as many smart people as possible for the project at hand as the Cardinals scramble to catch up with the industry trends in baseball’s information age.

Bloom has a sharp mind. The hiring of Cerfolio adds another sharp mind. And they will both bring in other smart minds. That’s how you turn things around. In my experience as a pro-sports observer – writing and broadcasting and all of that – I’ve come to believe that the best teams are led by smart people who want to hire other smart people, and surround themselves with smart people.

DeWitt took too long to adjust; he let the baseball department – and by extension the farm-development system – get musty and moldy. Which obviously is his fault. But as I’ve been saying for a while now, DeWitt’s commitment to Bloom was the start of a new beginning. And that’s a positive shift by ownership.

By going back to the Luhnow way, DeWitt is moving forward. And I like it. I’ll find other stuff to raise hell about, but this ain’t one of them.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing. Here’s the link: @TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: The Cardinals Are Already Getting Smarter Under Chaim Bloom, Who Just Made A Great Hire. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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BERNIE BITS

Good afternoon!

Good evening!

I was in the mood to get to the keyboard to manufacture some Bernie Bits for you today …

1. The St. Louis Blues are off to a good start at 4-2-0, and while it’s too early to put a hard focus on the state of the NHL standings, The Note’s .667 points percentage is tied for 10th best in the NHL. It was important for this evolving team to be quick out of the gate and develop confidence and cohesion. It’s also the best way for coach Drew Bannister to get a more complete understanding of individual players and the roles that best suit them.

2. Again, it’s early, but the Blues have reduced their average of goals allowed per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 play, at even strength, and at all strengths. This is important. And a lot of the credit goes to the Blues’ goaltending blockade put up by Jordan Binnington and Joel Hofer. Through their first six games, the Blues rank seventh in the NHL with a .932 save percentage at even strength and are eighth with a .911 save rate in all strengths.

3. This is not a slap at Binnington, but Hofer has been the early-season star for the Blues. He has the NHL’s fifth–best save percentage (.947) among goaltenders that have clocked at least 100 minutes at 5-on-5. He’s also fifth in even-strength save percentage (.953) and eighth in all-strengths save rate at .932. Hofer also ranks fifth overall in Goals Saved Above Average during even-strength action. And Hofer gives the Blues the added advantage of puck-handling skill and passing accuracy. It can make a difference offensively. The Blues have scored 10 goals in Hofer’s three starts and seven goals in Binnington’s three starts.

4. Doug Armstrong’s clever, ambitious pickup of defenseman Philip Broberg in the offer-sheet attack on Edmonton is looking better by the game. (And we’re impressed with center Dylan Holloway, the second addition from Edmonton via Army’s offer-sheet mischief.) As STLtoday pointed out, Broberg is the first Blues defenseman in franchise history to record a point in his first six games with the team. But there’s more to it than that …

5. The Blues have outscored the opposition 6-1 (all strengths) with Broberg on the ice. That includes a 5-0 blanking of the other side when Broberg is deployed at 5-on-5, and the Blues have outscored their foes 6-0 when Broberg is on the ice at even strength. The goal differential for Broberg is tied for No. 1 in the NHL at both even strength and 5-on-5 scenarios.

6. Broberg has been superb in his defensive pairing with Justin Faulk. They’ve been a tandem for nearly 100 minutes (all strengths) so far, and the Blues have allowed just one goal in 96 minutes of ice time. The Faulk–Broberg duo has outscored opponents 2-0 at 5-on-5 and even-strength setups … and that margin is 2-1 at all-strengths. In limited trials, Broberg has done well playing alongside just about every other Blues defenseman – including Nick Leddy.

7. The 2024 World Series will have three former Cardinals in the competition. The Dodgers have utility defender Tommy Edman and starting pitcher Jack Flaherty, and Luke Weaver is the closer for the Yankees.

8. Over the last five postseasons, World Series rosters have included 12 Cardinals – six pitchers and six position players. I remember when the Cardinals had their own players — an entire team of them — in the World Series … 2004, 2006, 2011 and 2013. But not now. Not for a long time.

9. As for the 2020 through 2024 World Series, here are the six former-Cardinal position players: Tommy Edman, Randy Arozarena, Adolis Garcia, Aledmys Diaz, Tommy Pham and Edmundo Sosa. Marcell Ozuna played for the 2021 Braves, who won the World Series, but was suspended by Major League Baseball in May of that season following an arrest for domestic violence.

10. And here are the six former-Cardinal pitchers that have made it to the World Series over the last five seasons: Jack Flaherty, Jordan Montgomery Zac Gallen — plus relievers Weaver, Joe Kelly, and Chris Stratton.

11. Consider this: Tommy Edman had 11 RBIs in only 27 at-bats in the six-game triumph over the Mets in the NLCS. And in 72 career postseason at-bats for the Cardinals, Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado produced only five RBIs … all five knocked in by Goldy. But Goldschmidt and Arenado haven’t had an RBI in the three postseason games they’ve played as St. Louis teammates.

12. Consider this: Over the last five postseasons three former Cardinals have won an MVP award for their outstanding performance in a league championship series: Edman (NLCS) for the 2024 Dodgers, Adolis Garcia (ALCS) for the 2023 Rangers, and Randy Arozarena (ALCS) for the 2020 Rays.

13. The “Brady Cook Game” will be a fond memory for Mizzou fans, an uplifting tale to be mentioned repeatedly as program loyalists tell stories through the generations about the day Cook reappeared out of nowhere after leaving Saturday’s game against Auburn. Gimpy and barely able to walk upright because of a debilitating ankle injury, Cook disappeared for a good while, maybe two hours. And then, with Mizzou down 17-6 and sinking, Cook rushed back from the hospital – with a stop in the team’s facility for extra treatment that may or may not have included a syringe – and raced through the Mizzou tunnel in broad daylight to save the day. The only thing missing was the cape.

14. Cook slinged the football and pressed the button on his repaired speed to pass-and-run Missouri down the field on two long touchdown advances to pull out a 21-7 victory for MU. Put together, the two scoring drives covered 175 yards in all … and required only 4 minutes and 4 seconds of game clock. These two marches had desperation, drama, moments of doubt … and delirium. What a show. It will never be a Hollywood movie script. But Cook gave us a thrilling show … and a helluva movie.

15. The win elevated Ol’ Mizzou to a 6-1 record overall and 2-1 in the SEC. As much as I admire what Cook did for the Tiger faithful on Saturday – he saved homecoming, and saved MU’s season – his passing accuracy must improve for the offense to take flight. It’s been a struggle. Just a couple of stats for you …

Passing attempts of 10 yards or longer, which covers medium and deep throws:

– 2023: 72 for 136 for a 53% completion rate, 13.75 yards per attempt, 85.2 NFL-standard passer rating.

– 2024: 33 for 78 for a 42% completion rate, 9.25 yards per attempt, 111.6 NFL-standard passer rating.

– Last season against FBS teams, Cook had an on-target rate of 72.3 percent, and a catchable-ball rate of 83.4%

– This season against FBS teams, Cook has a 64.7 percent on-target mark, and a 78.4 catchable ball rate.

Mizzou’s remaining games: at Alabama, Oklahoma, at South Carolina, at Mississippi State, Arkansas. It will be difficult for MU to avoid a second loss, and there are hazards along the way that could lead to a third loss. The games at Alabama and South Carolina won’t be easy. Well, it isn’t supposed to be easy. Just ask Brady Cook and his extreme-swing Saturday afternoon against Auburn.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing. Here’s the link: @TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie Bits! Notes and Opinions on the Blues, the Cardinals, Former Cardinals, Brady Cook, and Missouri Football. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

Last weekend, the Athletic baseball writer Katie Woo reported the Cardinals are “parting ways” with impending free agent first baseman Paul Goldschmidt.

This is no surprise. Goldschmidt is 37 years old and the 2024 season was the worst of his 14-year big-league career.

Here are the “before” and “after” looks at Goldschmidt’s decline from his cumulative performance level from 2011 through 2023:

• Batting average: .293 … .245
• Onbase percentage: .388 … .302
• Slugging percentage: 519 … .414
• Strikeout rate: 22.3% … 26.5%
• Walk rate: 13.1% … 7.2%
• Onbase+slugging: .908 … .716
• Adjusted onbase+slugging: 142 … 98

Goldy’s drop in adjusted OPS+ tells us all we need to know. The league average OPS+ is 100. And over his first 13 major-league seasons, Goldschmidt put up offense that was 42 percent above the league average. Outstanding. But in 2024, Goldschmidt’s OPS+ was two percent below average – a startling drop of 44 points from his previous career level.

Another vivid indicator of Goldschmidt’s degeneration can be spotted in his all-purpose value metric, Wins Above Replacement. In 2022, his MVP campaign, Goldschmidt was tied for fourth among MLB position players with 6.8 WAR. This season he finished tied for 109th with a meager 1.1 WAR.

This season Goldschmidt completed the final season of a contract that paid him $130 million over the last five years. At his age, Goldschmidt presumably would want to join a contending team that’s capable of winning a pennant or World Series in 2025.

The Cardinals are preparing for a rebuilding phase. It won’t be drastic, but the Redbirds will look to cut payroll and create even more opportunities for their younger pitchers and hitters. It doesn’t make sense for a non-contending team to carry excess payroll mass.

In a different scenario, Goldschmidt might appeal to the Cardinals on a short-term contract at a lower average salary. But he should have more appealing options on the free-agent market and can pick a situation that fits him in the final stages of his career.

There is a chance of a Goldschmidt bounce-back in 2025. I say this for two seasons:

1) Over his final 54 games in 2024, Goldschmidt batted .283 with a .333 onbase percentage and .485 slug for a good .818 OPS. And he also lowered his strikeout rate during that time.

2) Goldschmidt’s 2024 Statcast profile had some legitimate positives. His hard-hit rate of 48.6 percent put him in the top eight percent of regular MLB hitters. He was in the top 18 percent for average exit velocity. He barrelled enough pitches to finish in the top 27 percent of hitters.

That said, Goldschmidt’s strikeout-walk ratio has gone upside down on him. Too many strikeouts. A surprisingly low walk rate. The lapse in plate discipline was a significant factor in Goldschmidt’s total of 474 outs made in 2024. Only 11 big-league hitters made more outs than Goldy this season.

Goldschmidt was brutal when hitting with runners in scoring position this season – batting a sallow .203 with a .280 slugging percentage and a strikeout scourge close to 30 percent. He wasn’t as sure of himself up there with runners in scoring position, taking more called strikes than all but seven hitters in RISP scenarios.

Other than his splendid 2022 MVP splurge, the highlight of Goldschmidt’s career in St. Louis was a barrage of offense in the five-game triumph over the Braves in the 2019 NLDS. In that series Goldschmidt went 9 for 21 (.429) with four doubles, two homers and a 1.383 OPS.

That was his only postseason high point as a Cardinal. After that, in his final 10 postseason games for St. Louis, Goldschmidt went 5 for 39 (.128) with a gory 37 percent strikeout rate. The Cardinals lost nine of the 10 games.

After being acquired from Arizona, Goldy did a lot of things well in his six years with the Cardinals. Across the six seasons this quiet perfectionist led the team in WAR, home runs, RBIs, runs scored, doubles, slugging and OPS – and was second in batting average and onbase percentage.

Still, I think it’s obvious to declare that the Goldy Era was disappointing for the lack of postseason success. Goldschmidt and fellow trade acquisition Nolan Arenado had four seasons as teammates in St. Louis. This exciting pairing gave the Cardinals the best first baseman and third baseman combination in the majors for a couple of years … but not four years. And not in the postseason.

Despite their awards, impressive overall offensive numbers, defense and an elite status within the game, Arenado and Goldschmidt were liabilities in their two postseasons together, 2021 and 2022.

In their three postseason games as teammates – all of which ended in losses to the Dodgers and Phillies – Goldschmidt and Arenado combined for two hits in 22 at-bats for an .091 average. They collectively struck out 28 percent of the timer and went 0 for 9 with runners in scoring position. I can’t imagine doing any worse than that. The Cardinals scored only four runs in the three defeats.

Goldschmidt is all but officially gone, and the Cardinals may explore the idea of trading Arenado if he wants to disembark to join a contender. Arenado has a no-trade clause, and the Cardinals would have to pick up a significant percentage of the guaranteed money owed to him through 2027. But a trade might make sense for Arenado and the Cardinals. And after finishing first (Goldy) and third (Arenado) in the 2022 National League MVP tabulations, we’re reminded again of how quickly time goes by.

It was cool to have the classy Goldschmidt spend six years of his stellar career in a Cardinal uniform, but I think we all expected more. This franchise heralded for a remarkably rich history of World Series conquests and pennant flags, and as star teammates Goldschmidt and Arenado tried to pick up the torch placed in their hands by Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina. We dreamed of watching more triumphant Octobers, but it didn’t happen. The torch flickered out, and the grand October stage went dark.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing. Here’s the link: @TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: As Teammates In St. Louis, Goldschmidt And Arenado Had Some Great Moments But Came Up Short. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

In their medium-splash news conference on Monday, the Cardinals didn’t make any giant waves. But in reality, the arrival of Chaim Bloom can turn out to be a very big deal.

The Cardinals announced Bloom’s appointment to succeed John Mozeliak as president of baseball operations after the 2025 season.

Until then, Bloom will be immersed in the hugely important assignment of modernizing the Cardinals’ antiquated player development program and minor-league system.

Once the industry leader in consistently producing homegrown talent, the Cardinals got complacent and relinquished their advantage.

It took too long for chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak to pep up and reconnect to the organization’s player-development heritage, but they’ve finally snapped into action.

And Bloom got them there.

That’s his first achievement as prominent new member of the Cardinals’ baseball family.

Given DeWitt’s background as an avid proponent of player development, Bloom is the ideal choice to revive DeWitt’s languishing farm, and he’ll transform an outdated horse and buggy operation into something modern and all encompassing.

The Cardinals will unplug their Commodore 64 system to install advanced technology. There will be hitting labs, and pitching labs, and a substantial increase in specialized baseball instructors. Bloom will come up with everything the baby-bird prospects need to enhance their development on the road to the big leagues.

This will matter. It’s exciting to think of the Cardinals having an assembly line of talent again. Of course, in our short-attention span culture, there will be demands for instant gratification and shrill caterwauling, urging another round of stupid and wasteful free-agent signings.

Intelligent fans will understand the value of Bloom’s urgent assignment. They will remember the role Jeff Luhnow had when DeWitt recruited him out of the business world in the early aughts. Luhnow’s gift for advanced analysis and his shrewd process for player procurement and development made DeWitt very happy.

Chairman DeWitt was fired up. He loved this stuff. I think he would love it again. Fans should understand what’s at stake here. I want them to realize how Bloom can inspire DeWitt anew, and that’s one of biggest reasons why Chaim Bloom is the right person for this job.

Bloom had a leading role in creating the best player-development system in the majors at Tampa Bay. He was, as The Athletic noted, a star evaluator in the team’s “incubator of thinkers.”

Through the years the masters-degree program included Andrew Friedman, now the chief baseball officer for the Dodgers since 2015. And there’s the brilliant Erik Neander, who currently runs the Rays. Bloom worked with – and learned from – some of the best minds in the business in the skill of gaining a competitive edge in constructing rosters.

In 2008, Bloom wrote Tampa Bay’s definitive development manual, “The Rays Way.” According to The Athletic, Bloom “over the years ascended to the ranks of an organization that refined the art of doing more with less. It has since become a pipeline for teams looking for a similar edge.”

The Cardinals are looking to regain the edge they had for a long time – but lost – over the last 10 years or so.

In particular, Bloom was heralded for his ability to utilize datasets to identify low-cost, high-value pitching talent. Under Bloom, the Rays took in a large number of pitchers, made adjustments to their pitching arsenals and approach, and watched them thrive in the Rays Way.

From 2008 through 2019 — Bloom’s prime time at Tampa Bay — the Rays led the majors in Wins Above Replacement for pitchers age 25 years or younger. Specifically, their young starting pitchers were No. 1 in WAR over that time. Their young relievers were 10th. Their young position players were 7th in WAR. The Rays were running an elite prospect factory!

Tom Verducci – of Sports Illustrated and Fox Sports – wrote this about the Rays and Bloom: “No franchise understands better how to identify, develop and maintain quality pitchers.”

You can add position players in there, too.

I think that would be good for the Cardinals … unless, of course, you were enthralled by seeing the Cardinals spend $44 million on Steven Matz, honor Miles Mikolas with a $40 million contract extension, and hand center fielder Dexter Fowler a contract worth $82.5 million.

After being hired to run the Boston Red Sox, Bloom turned out to be a poor fit for an impulsive ownership group that couldn’t decide what they wanted him to do. Among other travesties, Bloom was ordered to trade star outfielder Mookie Betts to the Dodgers.

Bloom’s primary assignment for the BoSox – create a player-development system that kept the Rays punching above their weight – was a success.

As Bloom took over before the 2020 season, Baseball America ranked the Red Sox with the worst farm system in the majors. At the start of the 2024 season, the Red Sox were No. 10. Near the end of this season, they were No. 3 and had six of the sport’s Top 100 prospects. Boston’s 40-man roster has several rising talents. The Red Sox are set up for a positive future, and that’s attributable to Bloom’s work.

The only criticism of Bloom in Boston was his tendency to be indecisive in trade negotiations. He wasn’t aggressive enough. He hesitated. Other baseball executives felt that Bloom was difficult to deal with – not because he was a bad guy; it was about his inexperience in the top job. Bloom’s underlying anxiety during his first time in charge was an issue, but he should be much better prepared for his second shot at supervising a baseball department.

The Cardinals should benefit from the lessons Bloom learned – good and bad – in Boston. And I really like the match between Bloom and DeWitt. When Bloom becomes the top baseball executive in St. Louis, he won’t be working for a hyperactive owner. Bloom will be working for a team owner that understands the tremendous value of having a thriving farm system. And that is Bloom’s specialty.

Say what you want about DeWitt, but he operates with a stable and steady personality. He can be too steady, if there is such a thing. Bloom’s fresh ideas and suggestions will be good and healthy for DeWitt. We already know that because DeWitt thinks highly enough of Bloom to quickly endorse Bloom’s sweeping recommendations for upgrading the farm-development system. And DeWitt already has given Bloom a five-year contract to move into the top baseball post in St. Louis a year from now.

As for Bloom’s immediate job priority, I can’t think of a more suitable choice to oversee the rebuilding of STL’s dilapidated system; all we have to do is look at the track record in player development.

I just cited how Bloom dramatically elevated the Red Sox player-development machine in fast time. And as Baseball America wrote about Tampa Bay: “The Rays have been near the top of the farm system ranking more often than not in the 21st century, which explains how a team with a bottom-of-baseball payroll can find perennial success.”

Maybe it’s just a coincidence, But Tampa Bay’s player-development dominance receded (somewhat) after Bloom went to Boston.

The Cardinals are entering a rebuild … even if they decline to acknowledge it as such. This rebuild primarily will take place in the minors, but it also means a relatively brief rebuilding phase for the big club.

With DeWitt revved up to go, Bloom will have the necessary financial resources to rehab the St. Louis player-development model. With more funds being allocated to the minors, the major-league player payroll will be reduced for 2025, and some larger-salaried Cardinals could be traded.

Yes … that’s a rebuild.

And that’s OK.

If we’re being realistic about this — it’s time.

The Cardinals need to be straight with the fans. If they’re honest about past mistakes and own up to the work that must be done here, most reasonable people will understand the plan and give the team a chance to restore the pipeline.

Why in baseball heaven would anyone want the Cardinals to continue losing ground in a downward trend? Why would they want the Cardinals to have to overpay for average free agents — only to have a team with a potential upside of 85 wins? Why is it a wise idea to have to go out and buy replacement pieces for a starting rotation every winter? What’s the point of that?

It’s easy to spot the ominous trend line.

Consider:

– From 2000 through 2015, a span of 16 seasons, the Cardinals made the postseason 13 times. They won two World Series and four NL pennants. They led the majors in most postseason games competed in, and most postseason games won.

– Since the Cardinals’ most recent World Series title (2011), nine other MLB franchises have won a World Series – and three of the nine have won two.

– Since the Redbirds’ last NL pennant (2013) a total of 14 major-league teams have won pennants. That includes eight National League teams: Dodgers (3), Diamondbacks (1), Braves (1), Cubs (1), Phillies (1), Giants (1), Nationals (1) and Mets (1.)

– After winning 65 postseason games from 2000 through 2015, the Cardinals 4-11 in postseason games over the last nine seasons. That includes a 1-9 in their last 10 postseason games.

– In the last eight full MLB seasons, the Cardinals have missed the playoffs five times.

– Since the start of 2023, the Cardinals rank 22nd overall and 11th among NL teams with a .475 regular-season winning percentage.

The arrow – clearly – is pointing down. The end of a fantastic run was followed by a gradual descent into mediocrity and a paucity of postseason success.

Relative to their previously high standards, the Cardinals are broken. And like anything else that gets broken, it must be rebuilt. Bloom will be a plus for DeWitt.

Back in the glory days, DeWitt always put a premium on player development, and his enthusiasm for a prosperous farm operation catapulted the Cardinals to one of the greatest eras of ball in franchise history. I truly believe Bloom can reenergize DeWitt’s love of baseball.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing. Here’s the link: @TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: Chaim Bloom Will Reenergize Cardinals Chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

The Cardinals are Bill DeWitt Jr.’s franchise, and he can do what he wants. But it’s a mistake to keep John Mozeliak in place as the president of baseball operations for 2025.

Mozeliak planned to retire after next season, anyway. And DeWitt didn’t have to fire his longtime head of the baseball department. But Mozeliak could have played out the final year of his contract with a background role as a consultant or an adviser. He’d be there in a secondary position, offering suggestions and answering questions when asked.

Meanwhile, DeWitt could introduce Chaim Bloom as the new baseball boss at Busch Stadium and begin his pitch to the fans: time for a new direction, led by new leadership. Cardinals fans are irritated by the stat of the franchise, and I guess most would be receptive to the idea of a two-to-three year rebuild supervised by Bloom. His area of expertise is player development, and the Cardinals’ ramshackle minor-league operation is in need of a substantial makeover.

There’s a shortage of coaches and instructors, inferior technology, and not enough funding. The incomprehensible neglect of such a vital and historically prominent part of Cardinals baseball is a major failure of the DeWitt-Mozeliak administration.

DeWitt and Mozeliak let the franchise down. They let the fans down. DeWitt and Mozeliak have damaged the Cardinals’ esteemed brand, leaving a huge mess for Bloom to clean up. Which he will. The project will require Bloom’s attention and time. This can’t be fixed in a few months. But if (as expected) Bloom hires a new director of player development to oversee the comprehensive job, Bloom can make more of an overall impact by taking over for Mozeliak as well.

As long as Mozeliak is around, front and center, it will be extremely difficult for DeWitt to convince the fans of ownership’s commitment to profound change. The fans will see Mozeliak as the same guy in the same job leading to a similar outcome.

Unlike Bloom, Mozeliak won’t be viewed as an agent of change; he’ll be seen as more of the same. That’s because Mozeliak IS the same. It’s too late for him to adapt and modernize and reinvent himself as some sort of baseball visionary. That needed to happen years ago.

Post-Dispatch columnist Benjamin Hochman recently posted some DeWitt quotes from the chairman’s media session during the annual Cardinals’ Winter Warm-Up in January. DeWitt was asked why the Cards hired Bloom as a consultant. DeWitt began thinking of Bloom as soon as the Red Sox sacked him as chief baseball officer late in the 2023 season.

“I immediately thought: We could probably use someone like that (to be part of the front office),” DeWitt said. “Someone who’s been with a small market (franchise), big market (franchise), a very smart guy to kind of help see what’s going on with our organization.

“And interestingly, ‘Mo’ thought the same thing. He called me two days later, and I said, ‘John, it’s interesting because I had the same thought.’ We were on the same page there, which is great.

“I think (Bloom) can be very helpful. I mean, our team has been together a long time, and you never know what else is out there that maybe our guys have not been in touch with. The world changes — it’s helpful to get the perspective of somebody who’s done it with different organizations.”

The final part of the DeWitt quote is remarkable. The team’s owner openly acknowledged that his front-office operation could have been outdated, behind the times, and stuck in the past.

DeWitt was correct. But despite the honest assessment, DeWitt is still sticking with Mozeliak as the leader of St. Louis baseball ops.

If your team’s baseball model is stagnant, dormant and set in its ways – and has put the organization at a competitive disadvantage – then why stay the course?

Why would DeWitt entrust Mozeliak to lead the Cardinals’ revival when Mozeliak was a large reason for the Cardinals’ decline?

Pardon my clumsy analogy, but if someone haphazardly sets fire to your property, you don’t turn around and ask that same person to extinguish the blaze and repair the extensive damage. You bring in someone from the outside who can take charge of the problem … someone who wasn’t the origin of the problem.

Truth is (as you know), this is a DeWitt-Mozeliak partnership. It’s been that way since Mozeliak took over as the top baseball executive following the 2007 season. DeWitt and Mozeliak are fully aligned. They make all of the baseball decisions. This alliance deserved and received credit for the team’s incredible run of success – just as that alliance now deserves blame for the ongoing collapse.

DeWitt put Mozeliak in a tough spot by putting the funding of the player-development and minor-league system in the same resource pool as the funding for the major-league payroll.

It was pretty much left up to Mozeliak to determine what he should invest in the big club, and how much he should spend on the farm/development operation. One would assume there was enough money available to adequately cover both of these important areas, but I digress.

Even though Mozeliak had to make difficult choices – and as I wrote on Friday, DeWitt shouldn’t have done that – I see no reason to have empathy for Mozeliak.

Number one, Mozeliak enjoys complete job security. He has never had a reason to worry about getting fired. In other words, he wasn’t held accountable. In this DeWitt-Mozeliak fellowship, both men had to answer to each other … and no one else. That’s how complacency takes root and pulls the competitive product down.

Number two, Mozeliak has a respectable major-league budget. The Cardinals ranked 12th among 30 teams in the 26-man payroll this season – and 14th in the 40-man competitive balance tax payroll.

The Cardinals have a larger 26-man payroll than six teams that qualified for the 2024 postseason. Here’s the list, with the Cardinals at the top. I’ve rounded these numbers off …

— St. Louis, $177 million
— San Diego, $171 million
— Baltimore, $134 million
— Kansas City, $122 million
— Milwaukee, $117 million
— Cleveland, $106 million
— Detroit, $92 million

Under Mozeliak the Cardinals have made some unwise choices on where to put their payroll dollars. And with the player-development program in disarray, Mozeliak had no choice but to make short-term free-agent deals. Over the past three seasons the Cardinals have invested $286.25 million to sign these six players: Willson Contreras, Steven Matz, Miles Mikolas, Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn.

According to media reports, the Cardinals are strongly considering a payroll-reduction plan to redirect the savings into the farm-system initiative. Moving veterans off the books would also open up extensive opportunities for younger pitchers and players who loom large in the rebuilding stratagem. Putting closer Ryan Helsley on the trade market this coming offseason – with one year to go before he reaches free agency – could lead to a windfall return.

All of this makes sense; why have a $177 million 26-man payroll – and $215.7 million for a 40-man payroll – only to top off at 82 wins and fail to make the playoffs for a second straight season? And the Cardinals must find out more about their younger pitchers and players.

In theory, the trading of dollars would give the Cardinals a chance to add premium prospects in return. But once again, this all circles back to Mozeliak. Why would anyone – other than DeWitt – trust Mozeliak to make the shrewd trades necessary to speed up the roster replenishment? As of now, Mozeliak didn’t get much in return for trades that

As the years have gone by, Mozeliak’s grip on power has remained strong. DeWitt defiantly stands by his man, Mozeliak.

In doing so, Dewitt still seems oblivious to Mozeliak’s harsh low-approval ratings among the fans. And BDJ is apparently unaware of how the mere mention of Mozeliak’s name sets off instantaneous hostile reactions and vows to stop purchasing tickets to home games until Mo is gone.

The many fans who don’t know much about Bloom will have a question: if Bloom is a mastermind, then why isn’t DeWitt putting him in charge of the team’s baseball bureau right now? If Bloom is everything that DeWitt is looking for, then why is Bloom in the bullpen, warming up as Mozeliak’s replacement. In a way this decision to stick with Mozeliak will only undermine Bloom’s credibility before Cardinal fans get a chance to know him. And that would be a shame.

DeWitt’s effort to persuade the customers that the new era is about to begin is subverted by the presence of the old-era leader that the owner empowers to stand in the way of true progress.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing. Here’s the link: @TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: Bill DeWitt Jr. Still Doesn’t Get It. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

Thanks to excellent reporting from Katie Woo at The Athletic, we’re able to have a clearer vision of where the Cardinals are going when the offseason begins.

Two-part answer:

1. The Cards are moving forward in the long overdue and desperately required restoration of a farm-system, player-development operation that is antiquated, outdated, and moldy. This vital area – once a formidable strength – crumbled into disrepair because of complacency, arrogance and neglect. Everyone who had authority over this mess – including chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak – should be embarrassed.

2. By moving forward in a belated effort to modernize the teaching, instruction, staffing and use of advanced technology needed to give prospects more tools and help to prepare for the majors, the Cardinals will likely go the other way in the standings. Not forward … but backward.

As Woo wrote in Friday’s story: “Though they do not plan on tanking, people briefed on the Cardinals’ plans say the organization is preparing to shift its focus on upgrading the minor leagues and the player development department, even if it means going down a path seldom taken in baseball-mad St. Louis – accepting the possibility of not putting the major-league team in position to contend.”

To me, this is a positive. The Cardinals weren’t a contender in 2023. They were a fake contender in 2024. They’ve descended into mediocrity. It’s become more difficult for the Redbirds to make the playoffs – even though it’s easier than ever to make the postseason because of the third wild card in each league. Excluding the shortened Covid season of 2020, the Cardinals have failed to qualify for the postseason tournament in five of the last eight full seasons. This thing has been slipping … sliding … sinking.

The top priority should be restoring a crucial area that gave the Cardinals such a substantial advantage. That, of course, is drafting players, developing players and producing an abundant supply of homegrown Cardinals to form a foundation of enduring success.

From 2000 through 2015, St. Louis had the best regular-season winning percentage in the NL and were second overall to the Yankees. DeWitt’s franchise competed in 12 postseasons over 16 years and reached the NL championship series nine times. The Cardinals won four NL pennants and two World Series.

During the remarkable 16-season run, the Cardinals appeared in the most postseason games (125) and won more postseason games (65) than any major-league team. To his full credit, DeWitt was the architect, hiring the astute Jeff Luhnow put analytics to work to boost the drafting and development.

The steady flow of young (and less expensive) talent created a more efficient payroll, and that gave management more financial flexibility to add established players and pitchers from the outside.

It was a beautiful model that put DeWitt at the forefront of a movement. In drafting-and-developing and establishing enhanced payroll efficiency, the Cardinals set the industry standard.

DeWitt’s recruitment of Luhnow was a franchise-changing hire. The new way worked better than the old way. And there was no reason to let it deteriorate. But it deteriorated because DeWitt kept the same front-office people in place, and the operation turned stagnant. Forget about fresh vision, or fresh ideas … this outfit was stuck in the past. Living in the past with no grasp of the future.

And now the Cardinals must try and catch up after spending too many years in a time capsule, luxuriating in endless layers of nostalgia as other teams passed them by.

It’s stunning to see DeWitt – who was way ahead of the curve – let his creation crack and crater. Player development is in DeWitt’s DNA, and that makes it even more inexcusable to see this downfall. It’s just so strange to see DeWitt take a strength – one that he built – and let it become so feeble.

The repercussions are two-fold. The slow decline of the farm-system and player-development operation is bad for the business of winning, and bad for the business of selling tickets, suites, and sponsorships. And nothing about this is overblown.

– The minor League system is in terrible shape. Short on funding, short on coaches, short on instructors, short on technology. Using a metaphor, DeWitt and those who run the Cardinals have taken an esteemed, historically prominent home and allowed it to decay and crumble.

– This is an abandonment of the foundation that made the Cardinals so successful. And it makes no sense. And what an insult this is to the memory of the late, great George Kissell – a legendary teacher and instructor who schooled generations of young Cardinals on how to play the game.

– Katie Woo pointed out that other major-league organizations have a large faculty of coaches and instructors that are skilled in prepping young players for the big leagues. One example: the Milwaukee Brewers, who control the NL Central, have 17 minor-league instructors. The Cardinals have only FIVE.

– This is unacceptable. And it’s a major reason why the Cardinals are still chasing the Brewers, a franchise with a lower revenue base and a payroll that’s historically much smaller than the player payroll in St. Louis – and by a wide margin.

– According to Woo, the Cardinals do not have an outfield, infield or catching coordinator. They do not have any full-time roving instructors or any full-time coordinators in Latin America. The consequences are incredibly damaging. Too many of their young players are inadequately prepared for a successful graduation to the majors.

– And because the Cardinals inexplicably defaulted on their traditional advantage – one that could dominate small-market Brewers, and large-market Cubs – they must rely on questionable or flat-out terrible free-agent signings to patch giant holes on the major-league roster.

– When the farm system can’t produce a flow of elite young talents, Mozeliak has to try to find short-term solutions by going to the market in search of temporary solutions that won’t last. It’s been a costly misadventure. The Cardinals wouldn’t spend the money to maintain what they had in their impressive model, and now they must pay a very steep and painful price for their inexcusable neglect.

– Another point must be made here: This isn’t just about the minors and the player-development program. The Cardinals have also been too cheap to keep up with their rivals at the major-league level. They don’t have as many coaches and behind-the-scenes analysts or enough advanced technology available in St. Louis. So in terms of infrastructure – something I’ve touched on many times – this this once-proud organization has lost substantial ground in the minors AND the majors.

– Jordan Walker is an appropriate example. In the minors they moved the hitting prodigy from third base to the outfield. He’d never played the outfield. He wasn’t ready. And the Cardinals didn’t actually move him to the outfield (in games) until the final six weeks of the 2022 season at Double A Springfield. Next stop: Major leagues, ready or not!!!

– There wasn’t a minor-league outfield instructor to help Walker, and his defense was predictably awful. In subsequent minor-league demotions, his defense only worsened because no outfield-specific coach was there to school him up. Seriously: how dumb is this? Woo put it succinctly: “Walker has become the latest young player set up to fail by the St. Louis Cardinals.” Of course, there have been others. As we all know.

– Woo reached out to Cardinals staffers who are well aware of the magnitude of the problem. She granted them anonymity so they could speak freely. Here are a few sample quotes

• Staffer: “We’re in trouble. This is not easily fixable within the next year, or year after. This is going to take some time. I don’t know how this was effed up so bad over the last few years.”

• Staffer: “It’s broken. Our system is broken in a way. How it got there, I don’t know.”

Well, I think we know how it got there … DeWitt and Mozeliak failed in their responsibility as caretakers of an esteemed franchise. They didn’t protect the brand. They let the brand fray into failure.

According to Woo’s reporting, “Mozeliak has been operating with a set amount of money to split between the Cardinals’ entire baseball operations department, and the front office has repeatedly chosen to invest in the big-league team. Those decisions resulted in repeated cuts to player development, both stateside and in Latin America.”

DeWitt never should have put Mozeliak in that position. And DeWitt should never want Mozeliak making major-league payroll decisions. (I think those days are over. Maybe?) Too much money has been thrown away. DeWitt should have invested sufficient resources in both areas – farm system and major-league roster.

So what’s next? The Cardinals will try to adapt; at least they know this is a mandatory endeavor. This means taking a step back – or a step down – in their competitive goals at the major-league level.

Ownership-management must pour extensive resources into their neglected minor-league operation. And this should be the priority. Absolutely. As we noted earlier, the Cardinals aren’t succeeding at the major-league level anymore. What’s the point of repeating this maddening cycle over and over again?

What’s the point of putting a mediocre team on the major-league field because you can’t count on the player-development pipeline that needs massive repairs? They have to fix this. They waited too long to fix it, so the cost of the repairs are even more formidable.

This also means being straight and honest with the fans. The objectives over the next two or three seasons will be different. This is about putting new leadership in place, and giving the new people ample time to get this entire enterprise back on track.

I’ll take a couple of losing seasons if it means the Cardinals will re-emerge from the project as a much stronger baseball enterprise. I would advise lowering your expectations. The Cardinals are rebuilding. The title doesn’t matter; the Cardinals must start anew by constructing a sturdier infrastructure. And they can build out on that — step by step, move by move.

This coming offseason isn’t about, say, pursuing slugger Pete Alonso as a free agent. This is more about doing what’s necessary to develop your own Pete Alonso.

Besides, premium free agents don’t want to be here – not when they have better options, and can join a winning team that has a chance to win a championship.

It’s a waste of time to poke around for more 81 or 83 win seasons and praying for others to fail so you can somehow grab a No. 3 wild-card spot and get humiliated in the postseason again. Who the heck wants that? Not me. Time to get out of the muck and pick a DIRECTION. And that finally seems to be happening.

Woo reported some news on Chaim Bloom: he’s no longer a consultant. He has joined the front office full-time, and will begin implementing the changes to the farm system – the changes he recommended to DeWitt and Mozeliak after auditing the ramshackle minor-league system and the many problems that must be addressed. According to The Athletic, Bloom’s first task is hiring a new director of player development.

That part is good news because this is Bloom’s area of expertise. Tampa Bay has been the model for player development for a long time, and Bloom played a major role in keeping that talent pipeline prospering. In Boston he rebuilt a decrepit player-development setup and the Red Sox have one of the best farm systems in the majors.

Bloom is also much smarter than anyone in the Cardinals organization in his ability to assess player value. He is a master at analytics. He will find good-value players at lower cost instead of overpaying mediocre players to make an existing problem worse.

Next week, we’ll find out if the Cardinals are going to keep Mozeliak in the top baseball job, or have him move into the shadows and let Bloom take over. The longer Mozeliak stays out front, the Cardinals’ popularity and credibility will continue to wane.

It looks like manager Oli Marmol will be back in 2025, which is OK as the unofficial rebuild begins. A year from now, Chaim Bloom may have better ideas (and the authority) to bring in his own manager.

Finally, Woo reported that “the majority of his staff” will return with Marmol. This apparently includes the hitting coaches. So I guess the Cardinals enjoy alienating their fans?

The Cardinals — in too many instances — have no idea what they’re doing. Which is why Bloom was recruited to clear the cobwebs from a musty baseball-ops department. I give DeWitt credit for that. It took too long, but at least DeWitt is rallying.

So let Bloom do his job … the top job.

As in … right now.

I like this idea of a rebuild (or pick your own title) … but it’s also unnerving. Here’s my fear: unless Bloom is supervising the overhaul and has direct control of the major decisions that can revive the Cardinals, this team may turn into the Chicago White Sox in a couple of years. I sure hope not.

On that happy note …

Thanks for reading and have a nice weekend.

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing. Here’s the link: @TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: A New Direction For The Cardinals? Finally? If So, It’s About Time. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

The 2024 Cardinals are winding down, with only four games remaining in a disappointing season that wasn’t all bad. They’ll complete their series at Colorado on Thursday afternoon, then jet to San Francisco for a three-game weekend. And that will be it. The offseason begins. The drama begins. Change is on the way.

With 2024 accounted for, the Cardinals have now missed making the playoffs five times in the last eight full seasons. This excludes the Covid-disrupted 2020, which limited the Cards schedule to 58 games. After competing in five straight postseasons from 2011 through 2015, St. Louis is no longer an October fixture.

I’ll be reviewing the team’s 2024 season in the coming days and weeks, and that includes more than a few negatives. But I wanted to begin the Review process with something cheerful.

I am confident we can agree on this. The 2024 Cardinals had three players who turned in the type of high-level performances that made everyone happy.

1. THE COLD-BLOODED CLOSER, RYAN HELSLEY

With a huge assist from manager Oli Marmol, Helsley is in the final week of a career season, having tied Trevor Rosenthal’s franchise record for most saves (48) in a season. Helsley needs one more save in the final four games to set the new standard.

Helsley has struggled to stay healthy and fresh for an entire season, and a series of injuries has held him back. Marmol came up with a plan to eliminate Helsley’s relief appearances that covered more than one inning. And by keeping Helsley’s workload to one inning per assignment – usually in a save situation – the All-Star reliever stayed strong over the entire season.

And Marmol’s tactical shift really made a difference.

Helsley before the All-Star break: 2.36 ERA. 27.7 percent strikeout rate, 9.8 percent walk rate.

Helsley, after the All-Star break, through Wednesday’s save at Colorado: 1.54 ERA, 32.6 percent strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate.

So Helsley’s endurance made him more effective as the season dragged on. And tip of the cap to pitching coach Dusty Blake, who encouraged Helsley to use his slider more frequently. Great idea. Helsley’s slider held left-handed hitters to a .146 average and limited right-handed hitters to a .178 average. And when Helsley went with the slider to terminate an at-bat, he got a strikeout 44 percent of the time.

Helsley’s 48 saves (and counting) for a team that had 81 wins through Wednesday is mighty impressive. Going into Thursday’s game, Helsley had saved 59.3 percent of the team’s total victories. No other Cardinal closer during the DeWitt Era (1996-present) is close to matching that.

So when we see Helsley standing with saves in 59 percent of the 81 games won by the Cardinals through their first 158 games – we can make the case that no Cardinals team has ever relied as heavily on one closer to lock down victories. And no Cardinals team has benefited more from a closer’s impact on their team won-lost record for in a season.

2. THE ROOKIE MARVEL, MASYN WINN

Only 22, the rookie shortstop has shown a wide variety of polished skills that make him such a high-value player. Using the Baseball Reference version of Wins Above Replacement (WAR), here’s how Winn fits into the 2024 rookie class:

– No. 1 in total WAR
– No. 1 in defensive WAR
– No. 3 in offensive WAR
– No. 1 in Wins Above Average
– No. 1 in defensive runs saved
– No. 1 in runs scored
– Included on the leaderboard for most hits, RBIs, doubles, triples, home runs and more.

Sorry for another batch of numbers here, but I have to use them in order to display the magnitude of Winn’s wide range of talent.

In 2024, Winn became the only rookie player in Cardinals franchise history to put together this combination of impressive statistics:

• At least 30 doubles
• 5 triples
• 15 homers
• 55 RBIs
• At 80 runs scored
• 150 hits
• 10 stolen bases
• 14 defensive runs saved
• minimum 4.0 WAR

That’s right. Only one Cardinal rookie has whipped up that concoction of all-around goodness. Masyn Winn. And he’s still learning. He’s just getting started. And there’s more to my tribute. Other things to love about Winn: his two-strike hitting approach. And the way he peppers all parts of the field. This season Winn has pulled 65 hits, notched 44 hits to the opposite field, and connected for 44 hits straightaway.

Winn has 4.6 bWAR this season. Only four Cardinals rookies have ever topped that in a season: Albert Pujols (6.6) in 2001, Lou Klein (6.5) in 1943, Stan Musial (5.3) in 1942, and Rogers Hornsby (4.9) in 1916. Next on the list are Winn and Johnny Mize who are tied for fifth with a 4.6 rookie WAR.

3. THE ACCIDENTAL STARTER, ANDRE PALLANTE

Quite a transformation. Quite the change in plans. Pallante went from being a poor reliever – demoted to the minors several times – to becoming a starting pitcher that has the best ERA in the rotation. That nifty earned-run average, 3.47, represents his fine work in 19 starts. Pallante has gotten even better over time, posting a 3.12 ERA in his last 14 starts.

Since Pallante joined the rotation on May 29, here are the best ERAs by the St. Louis starters, minimum 10 starts:

+ Pallante, 3.47
+ Erick Fedde, 3.72
+ Lance Lynn, 4.20
+ Sonny Gray, 4.41
+ Kyle Gibson, 4.47
+ Miles Mikolas, 5.18

Since May 29, Pallante’s ERA is better than that of Pablo Lopez, Dylan Cease, Aaron Nola, Freedy Peralta, Kevin Gausman, Logan Webb, Shota Imanaga, Luis Castillo – and many other recognizable names.

Since May 29, the best starting-pitching ERAs in the NL Central belong to, in order: Paul Skenes, Justin Steele, Tobias Myers, and Andre Pallante.

Pallante will go into spring training with a grip on a rotation spot for 2025. That means the Cardinals will have two “new” starters for next season in Pallante and Fedde. I say “new” because neither pitcher was in the rotation plan before the start of 2024. That gives the Cardinals a head start for 2025. But Gray will have to pitch better, and the Cardinals presumably will continue to carry Miles Mikolas and his ballooning ERA. If the front office can go outside the organization to find a rotation upgrade, that would help the cause for 2025. And here’s hoping that rookie Michael McGreevy will get a full opportunity to start for the big club next season.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing. Here’s the link: @TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: Three Cardinals Who Distinguished Themselves As Success Stories In 2024. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

Before the season, the sportsbooks and analytics sites checked in with win-total projections for the 2024 Cardinals. Here’s a representative sampling, based on thousands of simulations:

PECOTA: 85 wins.

Baseball Prospectus: 84.3 wins

FanGraphs: 83.7 wins

ZIPS: 83 wins

Clay Davenport: 81 wins.

Baseball Reference: 70.2 wins

In Las Vegas, the general consensus at the sportsbooks listed the Cardinals with an over/under total of 81.5 wins.

If we take the seven forecasts and average them out, it comes to 81.2 wins for the Cards in ‘24. After winning at Colorado on Monday night, the Cardinals moved to three games over .500 at 80-77.

Wrote David Schoenfield at ESPN:

“The Cardinals were who we thought they were: a .500-ish team. Before the season, it seemed clear they needed bounce-back seasons from Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado to boost the offense. That didn’t happen, and the Cardinals will finish middle of the pack in the NL in runs. They got mostly what you would have expected from free agent starters Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn — some durability for a rotation that needed it — but it wasn’t enough.

“If anything, the Cardinals overachieved just to finish around .500 given they’ve been outscored by 50-plus runs. Masyn Winn had a promising rookie season, but Nolan Gorman was so bad the Cardinals finally sent him down to Triple-A and Jordan Walker was even worse. The future here looks more than a little murky.”

Agreed. We won’t have a better idea of what to expect for 2025 until Cardinals’ ownership-management announces their planned changes to shake things up and reset.

Schoenfield touched on one aspect of the 2024 Cardinals that doesn’t get talked about much: they overachieved. Based on their current minus 55 run differential, the Cardinals should have a record of 73-84 for a winning percentage of .465. But their actual record is 80-77 (.510).

Translation: St. Louis has outperformed its expected record by eight wins.

That’s a lot. In fact, as of Wednesday afternoon, no major-league team had won more games above their expected win total than the Cardinals.

So if you think the Redbirds have underachieved in 2024 … well, sorry, but you are incorrect. The opposite is true. The Cardinals have surpassed their win-loss record by eight victories.

Over the last three seasons only two teams – Miami in 2023 and Seattle in 2021 – have done better than the 2024 Cardinals at winning more games than they should have based on being outscored by a wide margin.

I don’t know if this will be enough for Oli Marmol to keep his job, and a lot depends on who is making the decision. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak? Chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. and team president Bill DeWitt III? And where does Chaim Bloom fit in all of this?

Marmol has two years left on his contract extension, but that doesn’t mean he’ll stay in the job. If the Cardinals sack Marmol, their only obligation would be paying off the guaranteed salaries owed to him over the next two seasons.

If the Cardinals decide to remove and replace Marmol, it won’t be because the 2024 team underachieved … because it didn’t underachieve. Not even close.

If Marmol is told to pack up and go, it won’t be because the 2024 Cardinals staggered to a finish that was significantly worse than the preseason projections. If the Cardinals win just two of their final five games, they’ll have an 82-82 record. That fits into the projected-win average. And an 82-82 mark would still be several games higher than expected based on run differential. If the Cardinals win at least three of their remaining five contests, they’ll be above .500 for the season.

That isn’t the goal. The goal should be much higher. I’m hardly waving the pom-poms here. The organization must raise the fallen standards and build the caliber of roster that can win the division and be capable of making a postseason push.

The fact that the Cardinals are a .500 type of team is an indictment of the people who control the fate of the franchise. Ownership. The front office. Complacency. Neglect. In my view Marmol did about as well as he could have with the roster handed to him. Mozeliak solidified the rotation and made it more respectable, but the Cardinals needed a lot more than that to approach a 90-win season.

The Cardinals were a better team this year – compared to the 2023 collapse – primarily because of Marmol’s astute bullpen management. That certainly factored into their 29-14 record (so far) in one-run games. And Marmol’s team is 57-38 in games determined by three runs or less.

Just like Miami manager Skip Schumaker last season, who overcame a terrible offense in 2023 to go 33-14 in one-run games and get the Marlins into the postseason as a wild card. It isn’t easy to have a good record in close games, and I never deduct credit from a manager who does well in close-call games.

If Marmol is fired after the season, it would likely be for one of several reasons:

1) Fans cannot separate him from Mozeliak. This fanbase has turned on Mozeliak and there’s no coming back from that. Marmol is viewed as Mozeliak’s pet. If the Cardinals want to regenerate fan enthusiasm, they have to move Mozeliak aside and install a new manager.

2) Mozeliak stays in charge, and replaces Marmol because it will appease the fans to a certain extent. Fans who are down on Mozeliak will continue to be venomous with Mozeliak … but having a new manager would change the subject for a while. Especially if the new choice for a manager is popular with the fans. Schumacher comes to mind (obviously) but there are others including Terry Francona if he wants to return to managing. I’m not sure about Yadier Molina. (The volatility is a concern.) I’m more intrigued by Albert Pujols.

3) Chaim Bloom is elevated to the top of the baseball department after the current season and determines that it would be best to choose his own manager, start fresh, and go in a different direction. Bloom was part of the process that resulted in Tampa Bay hiring Joe Maddon and then Kevin Cash. Bloom was really young when Maddon got hired – and not in a position of authority – but the higher ups wanted his ideas and made him part of the unofficial screening committee. Bloom seems to be open-minded about different styles of managers.

4) If the Cardinals have a restless yearning to hire pending managerial free agent Skip Schumaker, they’d have to make that move quicky. Three MLB teams already fired their manager during the season — White Sox, Mariners, Reds — and are looking for a new leader. That list will expand, with a few more clubs joining the search after making the decision to dump their current manager. Schumaker will be coveted. There will be competition for his services. If the Cardinals really believe Schumaker is the manager they must have, then they’ll have to take action and move Marmoi out of the job. If the Redbirds delay, Schumaker will land elsewhere.

Of course, Marmol could be back for 2025. It depending on who is running baseball operations, Mozeliak could want to keep Marmol in place … or Bloom could retain Marmol … and chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. could prefer a Marmol return — because he’d be paying Oli, anyway. If the Cardinals decide that Marmol is their manager for 2025, I’d expect to see sweeping changes on the coaching staff. But that is unlikely to appease the percentage of fans that want Marmol going, going, gone.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing. Here’s the link: @TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: The Cardinals Overachieved In 2024, But What Does That Mean For Manager Oli Marmol? appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

Y’all are going to get mad at me … which is OK … because I tend to drive people mad, anyway.

But may I suggest that John Mozeliak’s plan to upgrade the starting pitching for 2024 worked pretty well?

Before I elaborate, I must get a few things out of the way.

I’m not saying that … the Cardinals’ 2024 rotation was great. It wasn’t great. But it was, however, better than it seems. More on that later.

I’m not saying that … that the moves to sign free-agents Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson were ideal, or the work of a baseball genius. But the Cardinals needed bulk innings, and they needed them right away. There was logic in the signings.

I’m not saying … that Mozeliak did enough, or that it was fine for him to disregard the need for another elite starter. But I also understand that he doesn’t own the franchise, doesn’t set the budget, and can only sign players based on the funds that were made available to him. It didn’t help that the local media were completely out of their minds in “reporting” that the Cardinals would make a free-agent run at Aaron Nola, Yoshinonu Yamamoto or Blake Snell. I could mention others, but there’s no need for me to do that. Reasons: Nola wanted to stay with the Phillies and never was available; Yamamoto was determined to sign with the Dodgers; Snell wanted to stay on the West Coast or go to his hometown (Seattle.)

(Sidebar: It’s funny how I don’t read anything these days about how Mozeliak should be imprisoned for his failure to sign Jordan Montgomery. Never mind that Old Yella here told you this repeatedly: Monty didn’t want to come back here, and his agent Scott Boras made excessive demands. That’s why NO ONE signed Montgomery until the Diamondbacks made a “why not?” type of signing. And they are probably regretting their decision. Monty has a 6.23 ERA for Arizona this season, and he can opt in for another season.)

But yeah, sure, there were other starters available who would have fit with the Cardinals – provided that they wanted to pitch for St. Louis. For example: Free-agent Shota Imanaga had so much enthusiasm for wanting to be a Cub that he actually moved to Chicago last winter to show the franchise he wanted to be with them.

Mozeliak could have done more, but that’s easy to say given the budgetary restraints and the difficulty of recruiting coveted pitchers to a team that was coming off an embarrassing 71-91 season. The Cardinals paid Gray a princely sum and got him – in part because he prefers this region to the East or West. Lynn wanted to be here for obvious reasons. Gibson wanted to be here because he’s a Mizzou guy who married a St. Louis woman and lives in this area.

These were convenient signings, and Mozeliak took advantage of the built-in advantages he had to sign the three pitchers – and to get them signed quickly. It was fine work.

The starting pitching could have been more of a strength but wasn’t why this team failed to make the postseason for the second straight year. The bulk of the blame is shoveled at the St. Louis offense. End of story. No debate. I wrote about this at length last week, and won’t do it again, but when you rank 25th among 30 teams in runs per game, have limited power, and have a hitting approach with runners in scoring position was something you’d expect to see from a clan of tranquilized hyenas … well, good luck with everything.

For the most part the rotation was steady and solid. And isn’t that close to matching our preseason expectations? Without an elite starter – and having to carry the declining Miles Mikolas and the perpetually injured Steven Matz – I’m not sure why anyone would have anticipated a stronger rotation. Makes no sense.

Let’s review:

1. The starting-pitching ERA is 4.35, an improvement from 5.08 last season. That ain’t saying much. Of course the Cardinals would have more capable starting pitching this season, because the 2023 group had the worst ERA in a full season in franchise history. And while the 4.35 ERA ranks 22nd, other indicators are more positive.

2. The starters’ fielding independent ERA (4.10) ranked 16th and was slightly better than the overall MLB average. Translation: the starters did a reasonably good job of controlling what they can control, without needed superman efforts by the defense.

3. I’m sorry, so sorry, for the fancy-pants stats, but the Cardinals’ expected fielding independent ERA (3.96) by their starting pitchers ranked 10th in the majors. The “X” FIP is based on actual home runs allowed compared to the overall league average. Why is that? Well, because our buddy xFIP is used to predict future performance because it assumes pitchers have more control over how many fly balls they allow – instead of how many of those fly balls become home runs. I’ve gone deep into the weeds now! Retreat!

4. The St. Louis starters, with seven games remaining, rank 13th in the majors with 59 quality starts. Nothing wrong with that.

5. Going into Tuesday, Cardinal starters ranked eighth in the majors for innings pitched and are tied for eight with an average start of 5.4 innings. So please ignore the false narrative that would have you believe that the STL starting-pitching was short on innings this season.

6. Except for Gray, the Cardinal starters don’t have a lot of strikeout clout, ranking 23rd. But the fellers make up for that by inducing a high ground-ball rate (sixth highest) that leads to a lot of double plays. The Cards have the fourth-highest count of double-play grounders this season.

7. The team’s starters have done a pretty good job of limiting home runs, allowing 1.19 per nine innings. That ranks 15th.

8. What the STL starting pitchers don’t have is much run support, ranking 24th in runs (3.7) per nine innings.

9. The Cardinals were lucky in one aspect: Andre Pallante. They cast him as a reliever, and he’d been lousy in the role since the start of the 2023 season. Knowing this, Pallante asked to become a starting pitcher. The Cardinals agreed, and he went to work on it down at Triple A. Pallante has thanked them by pitching to a 3.47 ERA in his 19 starts.

10. Lynn missed time with a knee injury. But even with his absence mixed in, Lynn, Gray and Gibson averaged just under 29 starts and collectively have a 3.94 ERA. If we include Pallante’s numbers, the team’s four best starting pitchers had a 3.89 ERA in 99 starts. If we put trade acquisition Erick Fedde in there, STL’s best five starting pitchers have a 3.91 ERA. That 3.91 would rank 13th in the majors. Problem is, we can’t erase Miles Mikolas and his 5.35 ERA in 31 starts from the accounting.

11. I don’t want to gloss over the problems. I already mentioned the shortage of strikeouts. In 12 road starts, Gray had an awful 5.20 ERA and was blasted for 16 home runs and a glaring .509 slugging percentage. Lynn did not pitch well (4.81 ERA) on the road. Steven Matz, Zack Thompson and Matthew Liberatore had a 6.33 ERA in 15 combined starts.

12. The front office failed to hand more of an opportunity to rookie Michael McGreevy, who has a 1.29 ERA in two starts. That’s the problem when management carries a pitcher like Mikolas – all because of his guaranteed salary – even though he has the second–worst ERA (5.04) by a regular major-league starter over the last two seasons. McGreevy became a wasted asset.

13. The Redbirds’ starting pitching was disappointing in July and August, with just about every guy experiencing a downturn. Over the two months the rotation ERA was 4.95, and the team’s record was 25-28. With the combination of shaky starting pitching and a weak offense, the Cardinals fell out of contention.

The Cardinals’ bullpen is one of the best in the majors, and that’s a big factor in the team’s overall 4.04 ERA that ranks slightly above the MLB average of 4.08. That 4.04 ERA ranks 16th, but isn’t that far off from the teams ahead of them in the rankings: Padres (11th), Royals (12th), Mets (13th), Orioles (14) and Dodgers (15.)

The pitching gave the Cardinals a chance to post a higher winning percentage in 2024, but their unassertive offense ruined that possibility.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing. Here’s the link: @TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: All In All, John Mozeliak’s Revamped 2024 Rotation Worked Pretty Well. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

The Cardinals couldn’t complete a four-game sweep of the Pirates because the offense got shut down again in Thursday’s 3-2 loss at Busch Stadium.

For the 73rd time this season, the Cardinals were held to three runs or fewer in a game. Only three NL teams have been limited to a max total of three runs more often than St. Louis this season. The repercussions are obvious; the Cards are 19-54 (.260) when failing to exceed three runs in the competition.

On 44 occasions, the Cardinals were unable to scrounge for more than two runs in a game. When it happens their record is 7-37 for a .159 winning percentage.

Could the team’s starting pitching be better? Of course. But for the most part, their rotation has done a respectable job.

After sweeping the Cubs in a doubleheader played July 13, the Cardinals had the fifth-best record in the National League at 50-45. At that point the Redbirds were only 3 and ½ games behind first-place Milwaukee in the NL Central and were positioned above the Padres, Diamondbacks, Mets and Cubs in the wild-card standings. Another wild-card contender, the Braves, were only two games above St. Louis.

All in all, the Cardinals were in pretty good shape to make a run at a playoff spot. But the somnambulant St. Louis offense ruined the team’s chances of returning to the postseason.

Since taking down the Cubs in the July 13 doubleheader, the Cardinals faded from playoff contention by going 27-31 (.466) through Thursday.

And while there is plenty of blame to spread around, the St. Louis offense is the primary reason for the downfall.

Over the last 58 games the Cardinals:

– Have plated no more than four runs in 40 games and won just 12 of of the 40.

– Have scored three or fewer runs 31 times, winning only 7 of the 31.

– Have been choked to two runs or less 19 times, losing 16 of the 19.

Over the last 58 games Cardinal pitchers had an overall 4.20 ERA that ranked seventh among the 15 National League teams. And the bullpen was particularly strong, ranking sixth in the majors in ERA during that time.

Problem is, the Cardinals couldn’t turn enough leads over to the bullpen for safekeeping. In the last 58 games, the Redbirds led through seven innings only 20 times, the second-lowest total in the NL. And the Cards had the fewest number of leads through eight innings than any NL team.

The STL offense couldn’t keep up, struggling to score a sufficient amount of runs to give Andrew Kittredge, JoJo Romero and Ryan Helsley a large spread of opportunities to hold late leads or convert them to saves. Through the 58-game slowdown, the Cardinals scored the fewest runs by an NL offense in the first six innings of.

This is no surprise. Failure is the forecast for any offense that doesn’t hit for much power or take advantage of RBI opportunities. The hitters can overcome one of those flaws – but not both.

For example: the 2013 Cardinals led the National League in runs per game and won the NL pennant with an offense that finished 13th among 15 teams in home runs.

How did they pull it off? By drawing a lot of walks, generating the NL’s top onbase percentage, leading the league in doubles, and batting a preposterous .330 with runners in scoring position.

The 2024 Cardinals are dragging in all of those areas. Among the 15 National League teams, St. Louis ranks 12th in slugging percentage, 12th in home runs, 13th in doubles, and 14th in runs per game.

The sickness is more extreme when the Cardinals have a chance to deliver with men in scoring position. In RISP scenarios, this sorry collection of hitters rank last in the National League in batting average, slugging, home runs, and runs batted in. They’re also 14th in doubles. The current .226 batting average with runners in scoring position is the worst by the Cardinals in a season since the Bill DeWitt Jr. ownership era began in 1996.

It’s a bad offense for many reasons, but for the most part we can point at four names: Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker.

1. In 2022 Goldy and Arenado combined for 65 homers, 218 RBIs and 621 total bases. With nine games remaining in 2024, Goldschmidt-Arenado have combined for only 37 homers, 129 RBIs and 457 total bases.

2. In 2022 Goldschmidt and Arenado combined for 13 home runs and 131 RBIs with runners in scoring position. This season they have six homers and 85 RBIs with RISP.

3. In 2023, up-and-coming young hitters Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker combined for 43 homers, 127 RBIs and 381 total bases. This season, they’ve combined for 23 homers, 66 RBIs and 201 total bases.

4. In 2023, Walker and Gorman combined for a .260 average 12 home runs and 82 RBIs with runners in scoring position. This season Walker and Gorman have combined for a .175 average, two homers and 32 RBIs with RISP.

Elsewhere …

5. Using adjusted OPS+ as our measure, seven hitters that had at least 130 plate appearances in 2023 have done worse in 2024: Goldschmidt, Arenado, Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, Walker, Gorman, and Dylan Carlson.

6. Only three have improved: Alec Burleson, Willson Contreras and Masyn Winn. But Winn had never been in the majors until his promotion to big club on Aug. 18, 2023. So his improvement requires context. Because of injuries, Contreras played in only 84 games this season. Burleson was making impressive progress for much of the season but has gone into a deep funk since the third week of July.

7. Burleson’s power has deteriorated in a startling way over his last 52 games. In 190 at-bats over that time, he has just three homers and a dim .300 slugging percentage. Burleson – shockingly – has driven in only one run in 73 at-bats since Aug. 27, batting .219 over that time.

8. The center-field position has wheezed offensively all season. The several players that have occupied center field have combined for only four home runs, a .221 average, .271 OBP and a grotesque .290 slugging percentage.

9. Let’s expand the view here. In 2021, the Cardinals received a fantastic offensive performance from their primary outfielders.

Led by Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson and Harrison Bader, the ‘21 St. Louis outfield ranked 5th in the majors in homers, 7th in slugging, and 14th in RBIs.

But since the start of the 2022 campaign, the St. Louis outfield ranks 24th in RBIs, 25th in slugging, and 26th in home runs.

If Cardinals’ ownership and management declares the desire to compete for a postseason spot in 2025, they’d better come up with a plan to enliven this deadwood offense. Cardinals fans aren’t going to fall for a bogus marketing pitch. The 2024 Cards have one of the very worst offenses during DeWitt’s 29 seasons as the chairman. And fans won’t be fooled by more promises.

Thanks for reading and I hope you have a pleasant weekend.

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing. Here’s the link: @TheBernieShow

Follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: A Flawed, Faulty Offense Took The Cardinals Down In 2024. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

The small-market, big-brained Milwaukee Brewers did it again, overcoming the odds and the expectations and wealthier franchises to win the NL Central title.

Fans in St. Louis should be used to this by now. I’ve written about this before and I’m going there again. The Cardinals ownership and front office should be embarrassed by Milwaukee’s division takeover.

The same goes for the Cubs, who have the division’s largest payroll and revenue base. But let’s just keep this about the Cardinals and the Brewers, shall we?

The Milwaukee Brewers are the new St. Louis Cardinals.

Or if you prefer: the Brewers are who the Cardinals used to be before the Cardinals forgot about all of the traits and characteristics that made this such a special franchise once upon a time under chairman Bill DeWitt Jr.

Since the start of 2017 …

* Brewers .558 winning percentage, 6th in MLB. The Cardinals are 9th in the majors at .527 win%.

* Postseason appearances: Brewers 6, Cardinals 4.

* Division titles: Brewers 4, Cardinals 2

* Average annual payroll ranking: Brewers 22nd, Cardinals 11th.

* Estimated money spent on 26-man payroll since 2017: Brewers $750.8 million. The Cardinals: a booming $1.178 billion.

That’s right.

Based on payroll figures listed at Baseball Cube, with additional data from Cots Contracts, the Cardinals have outspent the Brewers by $427.7 million since the beginning of the 2017 season.

Before the 2024 season, the Brewers were projected to win fewer games than the Cardinals and Cubs. We never learn, do we? Intelligence is more important than payroll size. The Brewers continue to reaffirm that.

Milwaukee was in transition after manager Craig Counsell left the Brewers to sign a lucrative free-agent contract with the Cubs.

Milwaukee rotation ace Corbin Burnes, who can become a free agent after this season, was dealt to Baltimore for prospects.

The superb closer Devin Williams suffered a back injury and didn’t make his season debut until July 28.

Star corner outfielder Christian Yelich succumbed to chronic back problems and was shut down for good on July 29. Yelich opted for surgery, and the Brewers had him for only 73 games this season.

The Crew didn’t have No. 2 starter Brandon Woodruff at all; he missed all 2024 after undergoing shoulder surgery.

Rotation member Wade Miley made three starts then was shut down for the remainder of the season because of a shoulder injury.

A talented young starting pitcher, Robert Gasser, had a 2.57 ERA through five starts and blew out his elbow.

Didn’t matter. The Brewers have been patching up their rotation all season and are on the way to the postseason for the sixth time in the last seven seasons. This Crew supplanted the Cardinals as the smartest team, the most resourceful team, the most efficient team, the most well run team – and the best team – in the NL Central.

It isn’t even a debate. Milwaukee has won two consecutive NL Central titles, three of the last four and four of the last six. The Brewers have flopped in the postseason — the only real failure — and they’ll take another whack at it when the tournament begins next month.

The Brewers weren’t supposed to get there. That’s the part so many people miss. Unlike the Cardinals, this franchise outperforms its payroll level every season. There’s an underdog vibe about the Brewers and this team thrives on it. It’s an energy source.

Just before the start of the season, Milwaukee manager Pat Murphy had this to say about his team: “We’re gonna play hard. It’s a bunch of guys I think the fans will fall in love with. Be careful, because they might just believe themselves right into contention.”

You could say that.

“No one in spring training would have said that the Brewers will win the NL Central, except maybe a few guys in that room, and it just talks to one thing: this is a game about people,” Murphy said after the Brewers clinched the NL Central crown Wednesday night. “You could throw as many adversities our way as you want. You trade our Cy Young winner, our number one (Woodruff) is down for the year, we lose Wade (Miley), we lose (Robert) Gasser. We lose so many other pitchers – we lose Devin (Williams) until August, and then we lose (Christian) Yelich in August. So many other injuries, and how many different starting pitchers.”

How do the Brewers keep doing this? A fantastic front office, led by Matt Arnold is the No. 1 reason. The Brewers constantly find economical solutions to fill roster voids.

They have an eye for low-cost, high-value talent such as starting pitchers Colin Rea and Tobias Myers. They make great trades (shortstop Willy Adames.) They find jewels in the international market (the phenomenal Jackson Chourio.) They’re smart shoppers in the free agent market (first baseman Rhys Hoskins.)

I want to zone in on the Brewers-Cardinals contrast and highlight a few examples of how Milwaukee has a much better roster than St. Louis despite spending a lot less money. Frankly, some of this is ridiculous and exposes the glaring difference between the two baseball departments. It’s no contest.

FRONT OFFICE

Arnold runs the baseball operation. He’s an acolyte of Jeff Luhnow, who modernized the Cardinals’ drafting and player-development methods from 2003 through 2010 before leaving to become Astros GM. Arnold finds incredible bargains on the market to deepen his roster. Best example: reliever Bryan Hudson, who was let go by the Dodgers to create room on their 40-man roster. Arnold swooped in and picked up Hudson – who has a 1.73 ERA and 27 percent strikeout rate in 62 and ⅓ innings this season.

Before Arnold moved into the top job, he was an assistant to David Stearns, who also served as an analyst for Luhnow in Houston. The Sons of Luhnow have been running the Brewers, and running past the Cardinals. Coincidence? I think not.

The Cardinals have president of baseball operations John Mozeliak, who is not Jeff Luhnow. Mozeliak — who did so many good things early during his tenure — ran out of answers and solutions a long time ago and let the player-development system slide from a strength to a weakness. Bargains? Well, Brandon Crawford sure was a steal at $2 million this year.

(I apologize for the snark.)

STARTING PITCHING

Milwaukee: The seven pitchers who made the most starts for the Crew this season are Freddy Peralta, Colin Rea, Tobias Myers, Aaron Civale, Joe Ross, trade acquisition Frankie Montas and swingman Bryce Wilson. The total salary cost for the seven pitchers this season? Only $20.6 million.

St. Louis: The seven pitchers who made the most starts for the Cardinals this season are Miles Mikolas, Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, Andre Pallante, Steven Matz and Erick Fedde. The total salary cost for the STL seven? That would be $65.2 million.

The Brewers spent $44.6 million less than the Cardinals for their busiest starters and have a superior rotation.

+ Peralta makes $5.5 million … Mikolas makes $17.6 million. Who would you rather have?

+ Rea makes $3.5 million … Gray makes $10 million. Sonny signed a three-year deal that averaged $25 million per season, but Gray deferred money and agreed to take $10 million in 2024.

+ Myers makes only $740,000 and has a 3.10 ERA that ranks 10th among NL starters … Kyle Gibson makes $12 million.

+ Civale’s prorated salary is $2.3 million … Lynn’s salary is $10 million.

+ The combined salaries for Montas (prorated), Ross and Wilson comes to $8.55 million. Steven Matz makes considerably more than that this season ($12.5 million) all by himself.

+ Between them, Mikolas, Gray, Gibson, Matz and Lynn are collecting three times as much salary this season than the entire seven-starter group that’s done so well for the Brewers. Embarrassing.

POSITION PLAYERS

— In 2024, Milwaukee’s entire set of position players are collectively being paid $63.67 million.

— Three Cardinals – Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado and Willson Contreras – are making a combined $68 million.

– And keep in mind that the Brewers’ $63.67 million investment includes the generous salary ($26 million) that goes to Yelich. That means all of the other Milwaukee position players are receiving a combined $37.7 million this year.

— Think about the disparity between Milwaukee’s investments in position players, and STL’s investments in position players.

– Now consider this: the Brewers rank 4th in the majors in runs per game. The Cardinals are 24th in the same category. The Brewers have the third-ranked defense based on defensive runs saved; the Cardinals are 15th. Speed? The Brewers are third in stolen bases; the Cards are 21st.

— Using Wins Above Replacement as a measure, the top five Brewers – William Contreras, Willy Adames, Jackson Chourio, Christian Yelich and Joey Ortiz – have a combined 19.4 WAR. The top five Cardinals – Masyn Winn, Nolan Arenado, Brendan Donovan, Willson Cotreras and Ivan Herrera – have amassed 13.1 WAR.

The Brewers have a winning culture. It’s one of the reasons why this team didn’t flinch after Counsell defected to the enemy. The Cardinals’ winning culture? I don’t know what to say about that, because I don’t think it exists … not based on what we used to see around here. Hey, but least Cardinals fans can always treasure those postseason victories over the Brewers in the 1982 World Series and the 2011 NLCS.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing. Here’s the link: @TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: The Milwaukee Brewers Are The New St. Louis Cardinals. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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Remember when the St. Louis Cardinals were among the industry leaders for their successful drafting and development of young prospects? Me too.

I was doing some morning reading earlier today, browsing The Athletic. Something caught my attention. The piece described the interesting relationship between the key people in the front-office operations of the two Baltimore teams, the Orioles and Ravens.

Friendships have formed, and the two teams have traded notes and observations about evaluating talent. Front-office operatives from both teams have sat in each other’s draft rooms to watch the decision-making process and all that goes into it.

At one point in the story, Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta referenced a book that made a positive impression on him. “The Cardinals Way,” published in 2016, was written by Howard Megdal, who took a comprehensive inside look at how the Cardinals built a powerhouse.

Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. brought in Jeff Luhnow to modernize the baseball operation, and Luhnow’s impact made a huge difference. And Luhnow brought in a staff that included young analysts Mike Elias and Sig Mejdal. The two followed Luhnow to Houston when he became Astros GM in 2011. And just like that, DeWitt’s baseball operation lost considerable brainpower.

DeCosta was specifically interested in the roles of his new friends – Elias and Mejdal – in the building of “The Cardinals Way.” They came to Baltimore to oversee the complete rebuild of the Orioles. It took a few years – this was a tear-down project – but the Orioles were revitalized and transformed.

As Jeff Zrebiec wrote in The Athletic:

“DeCosta is an ardent reader. He enjoys learning about successful people, organizations and companies. He remembers reading about how the St. Louis Cardinals became one of baseball’s model organizations in part because of a player development machine that relied heavily on statistical analysis.”

Sad. That era of St. Louis baseball faded into history. It’s now just a book. As I noted at the top of this column, once upon a time the the Cardinals were an industry leader. But they relinquished the advantage through their own complacency.

DeWitt’s franchise now has a critical project before them. The Cardinals must update their tired old model and reestablish the organization as an innovative, forward-thinking enterprise.

The Cards have lost a lot of ground in this area, and now must try to catch up to the smarter baseball operations that zoomed ahead of them. This undertaking will set the course for the next era of Cardinals baseball.

Chaim Bloom will presumably oversee the mission. I don’t know if anyone will be writing books about the Cardinals in the future. But it’s important for the Cardinals to reclaim that future. The magnitude of Bloom’s assignment cannot be overstated.

BIRD BYTES

LUKEN BAKER had an RBI triple to give the Cardinals a 1-0 lead Tuesday. The blow came against left-handed Pirates starter Bailey Falters, and Baker continues to hammer lefties. It’s the usual small sample size, but that’s all I have to work with because the Cardinals don’t play Baker enough.

Baker is 4 for 13 (.308) against lefties since his promotion from Triple A Memphis. Add his three walks and Baker has a .412 onbase percentage vs. left-handers to go along with a .923 slugging percentage, two homers and seven RBIs.

No other Cardinal has more than three runs batted in off lefties since Baker played his first game for the Cardinals this season on Aug. 21.

Against all pitchers, Baker is 5 for 12 with runners in scoring position (.412) with two homers, a double, a triple and a 1.167 slugging percentage.

Another quality for Baker is his skill at drawing walks. He leads the Cardinals with a 17.7 percent walk rate since being summoned from Memphis.

Baker has driven in 10 runs in only 32 at-bats since his callup. Let’s check Baker’s RBI productivity compared to some of his teammates:

• Arenado 13 RBI … 99 at-bats
• Baker, 10 RBI … 32 at-bats
• Goldschmidt, 10 RBI … 87 ABs
• Donovan, 10 RBI … 89 ABs
• Walker, 9 RBI … 52 ABs
• Winn, 7 RBIs … 104 ABs
• Burleson, 3 RBI … 89 ABs

Hey, Cardinals, you better keep Baker on the bench. The big man isn’t helping the Cardinals score runs, or anything like that. Good grief.

ALEC BURLESON, CRASHING. Burly has gone off the rails this month, batting .167 with a .455 OPS. Per wRC+ – which is OPS+ but only better – Burleson is 61 percent below league average offensively in September. The downturn has been in effect for a while now. Burleson hasn’t homered since Aug. 17. And if we go back to July 22, he’s hitting .227 with poor percentages for getting on base (.299) and hitting for power (.304 slug.)

Burly has only three home runs in his last 181 at-bats. That’s one homer per 60 at-bats. Before July 22, Burleson had 18 homers and had hit one every 18 at-bats. Big problem: too many ground balls. His GB rate for September (48%) is by far his highest in a month this season. And the grounders have cut into his line-drive rate, which has fizzled to 12 percent so far in September.

This month pitchers have powered up on Burleson to keep him on the ground. In at bats that have ended with a four-seam fastball, he’s 1 for 12 with six ground balls. He also has a high ground-ball rate on changeups.

JORDAN WALKER is trying to finish strong. Though the second-year Cardinal still hits too many ground balls and must reduce his strikeouts, he’s made progress in September. In his 47 plate appearances this month, Walker has batted .273 with a .591 slugging percentage and .910 OPS. His late charge includes two doubles and four homers in 44 at-bats. Over the last four games through Tuesday, Walker has a reasonable ground-ball rate of 37.5 percent, and has launched two home runs. Here’s to a better 2025. And maybe the Cardinals will actually bring in a new hitting instructor or two that can help Walker, Nolan Gorman and other young hitters figure things out.

LARS NOOTBAAR, SURGING. He’s been an enigma over the last couple of years, but Nootbaar has clicked in September. I don’t know if it means anything for 2025, but if Nootbaar can stay healthy next season he’ll have a chance to do some special things. Nootbaar has a .293 average and .841 OPS since Aug. 23. But he’s been exceptional this month, ripping a .333 average, .440 onbase percentage and .564 slug. We can always tell when Nootbaar is calm and confident. When that happens, he starts drawing walks. And this month he has a superb walk rate of 18 percent.

STL STARTING PITCHING is on a late-season upturn. I don’t know if this will last over the final games, but in their last 13 contests the Cardinals have a 2.99 starter ERA that ranks 8th in the majors over that time. The bullpen dudes have done their part, working up a 2.29 ERA over the last 13.

THE OFFENSE: STILL CLUNKY. Because of the same, old, tired and problematic offense, the Cardinals are just 7-6 in the last 13 games despite the team’s stretch of stellar pitching. In the last 13 games through Tuesday, the Cardinals have averaged 3.0 runs, batted .205 overall, and hit .144 with runners in scoring position. St. Louis has a horrendous .268 onbase percentage over the past 13 games.

BAD HABITS? YEP, STILL THERE. Cardinal hitters have taken 3,915 called strikes, the fourth-highest total by a big-league team this season. And their called-strike percentage (17.6%) is third worst. The called-strike plague isn’t improving; only one team (Arizona) has watched more called strikes sail by this month. The Cardinals also rank 15th among 30 teams for the largest percentage (31.7%) of hacking at chasing pitches out of the strike zone. Multiple translations: need smarter hitters, need more talented hitters, need a new batting coach, need a clue.

J.J. WETHERHOLT. Just to sprinkle in some Happy Talk news, the seventh overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft has batted .488 with a .551 onbase percentage and .698 slugging rate in his last 10 games for Class A Palm Beach. The escapade, which has carried into the playoffs, includes 13 RBIs, five walks, three doubles, and two home runs. For the season in Class A, Wetherholt has a .342 batting average and .932 OPS with runners in scoring position. Let’s call him WetherHOPE.

MICHAEL SIANI had a good game Tuesday but the center fielder has gone only 6 for 42 (.143) since returning from the IL earlier this month. Since making his way back into the lineup, Siani has four hits in 11 at-bats against four-seam fastballs – but is 2 for 31 with a 31.1 percent strikeout rate against all other types. In related news, center fielder Victor Scott is 0 for 11 with five strikeouts since being returned to Triple A Memphis.

Thanks as always for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing. Here’s the link: @TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie: The St. Louis Cardinals Must Move On From The Past And Reclaim The Future. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

If that was Lance Lynn’s final start as a St. Louis Cardinal, he delivered a winning performance that personified all of the traits we’ve admired and enjoyed.

Lynn is a grizzly bear of a man. His intense competitiveness is sound-tracked by emphatic grunts, loud shouts, and the barking of R-rated curse words. This old pitcher yells at clouds, looks like a cast member of Sons of Anarchy and puts on a helluva show. Music fans of a certain age could watch Lynn pitch and have John Kay and Steppenwolf’s “Born To be Wild” playing in their heads. It fits.

Lynn somehow takes a four-seam fastball that doesn’t have as much sizzle and zing as it used to, but he’s determined to heave it past hitters, anyway. And he wins a robust share of those battles, limiting opponents to a .199 batting average on the four-seamer when they put the pitch in play.

Lynn’s four-seam fury was crackling again Tuesday night when the 37-year-old put the Pirates down during six innings of one-run saltiness and stubbornness. And the work shift led to a 3-1 win for the Cardinals. The Pirates had their moments against Lynn’s signature pitch, banging a double and a homer in nine at-bats that ended with the four-seamer. But that was OK. Lynn mixed in some other offerings, let out a few primal screams, and sent all but six of the club-wielding 23 Pirates back to the dugout.

If this is it for Lynn, if his Cardinals’ career is over, then he went out with style and success. The current version of Busch Stadium opened in 2006. The young Lynn pitched for the Cardinals from 2011 through 2017, then returned for a 2024 encore.

Among the men who worked at least 250 regular-season innings at the “new” Busch Stadium, Lynn’s considerable presence and talent made him one of the most accomplished Cardinal pitchers in this ballpark’s history.

Most Games Started at Busch: Adam Wainwright 215, Lynn 90, Miles Mikolas 83, Jaime Garcia 77, Michael Wacha 76.

Most Individual Wins at Busch: Wainwright 108, Lynn 46, Garcia 34, Chris Carpenter 32, Wacha 31.

Best Starter ERA at Busch: Carpenter 2.61, Lynn 2.88, Wainwright 2.97. Garcia 3.05, Jack Flaherty 3.23.

Best Individual Winning Percentage at Busch: Lynn .697, Wacha .689, Carpenter .681, Kyle Lohse .644, Jake Westbrook .625. (Waino is next at .624).

Most Strikeouts at Busch: Wainwright 816, Lynn 516, Carlos Martinez 455, Wacha 418, Mikolas 364.

Here’s a fantastic note from John Denton, who covers the Cardinals for MLB.com: “Incredibly, Lynn is 9-0 (at Busch) since July 4, 2017, and he has not lost at Busch Stadium in 21 consecutive starts – an NL mark that trails only the 22 straight starts without a loss by Clayton Kershaw at Dodger Stadium from 2018-19.

Lynn was a certified winner. From 2011 through 2015, the Cardinals won the 2011 World Series, two NL pennants, and went 5 for 5 in qualifying for the playoffs. During those seasons Lynn made 24 postseason appearances as a starter or reliever.

As a rookie in 2011, Lynn was a valuable piece of Tony La Russa’s postseason bullpen – appearing in 10 games and pitching to a 3.27 ERA. En route to the World Series title, the Cardinals were 7-3 when the 24-year old was tasked to provide relief in the pressure of October.

Lynn missed all of 2016 after undergoing elbow surgery. He was back with a complete season in 2018, then headed to the free-agent market. In hindsight, the Cardinals made a mistake in letting Lynn walk. But after six seasons – and time spent with the Twins, Yankees, Rangers, White Sox and Dodgers – Lynn came home in 2024.

Though sidelined by a knee injury that limited him to 23 starts, Lynn had a sturdy 3.84 ERA and the Cardinals were an impressive 15-8 when he started. Part of that record can be attributed to run support, but all along the Cardinals won a lot of games with Lynn making a start. During his entire career with the Cardinals, the team had a .577 winning percentage with Lynn as a regular-season starter.

If we go by Wins Above Replacement, only one St. Louis pitcher, Wainwright, has rolled up more WAR than Lynn since the start of 2011 (home or away.)

If we go back to 1959, Bob Gibson’s first season with the Cardinals, here are the top five individual win totals by a STL pitcher over the last 65-plus seasons:

• Bob Gibson 251
• Adam Wainwright 200
• Bob Forsch 163
• Matt Morris 101
• Chris Carpenter 95
• Lance Lynn 79

Down the road, Lynn will have a good shot at being selected to the Cardinals Hall of Fame. The 2024 homecoming was meaningful to him.

“When you get to the big leagues, you don’t know what you’re doing and you’re just trying to survive,” Lynn told reporters after Tuesday’s win. “When you go to other places and come back it makes you understand what it means to wear this uniform. The things that I was able to accomplish my first time through here and accomplish now are pretty cool.”

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing. Here’s the link: @TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: A Tribute To Howlin,’ Hollerin’ Lance Lynn. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

Even during a .500 season and the postseason out of reach, the Cardinals have provided a few pleasant stories. And this isn’t about feel-good stories that aren’t hooked to the outcome of baseball games. These are the type of stories that can carry over into 2025.

Rookie shortstop Masyn Winn is one of those stories, and he will be a crucial presence on the 2025 Cardinals. Though he’s faded late in the season, Alec Burleson emerged as an above-average hitter who displayed real power for the first time. He’ll only get better.

Rookie reliever Ryan Fernandez is a keeper. The Cardinals have gotten extensive looks at young catchers Pedro Pages and Ivan Herrera, and there’s a lot to like about each of them.

Center fielder Michael Siani went from a remote location on the depth chart to give the Cardinals exceptional defense in center field. Siani is well below average offensively, but it’s nice to know that he can be counted on next season as a fourth outfielder and frequent defensive replacement. Saving runs matters. The Cardinals like rookie Victor Scott’s potential as an outfield option going forward. Utility infielder Thomas Saggese, a recent call-up, almost certainly will be in the plans for the big club in 2025.

No, none of these guys are budding superstars. But good teams need options and depth and platoon bats. Teams need quality role players … or young trade chips. One way or another, you can see a future for all of the men I’ve mentioned.

No Cardinal has produced a better story in 2024 than starting pitcher Andre Pallante. Stuck in bullpen purgatory after being miscast as a reliever by the front office and manager Oli Marmol, Pallante pitched an idea to the bosses as the Cardinals were in the process of sending him down to Triple A Memphis. He asked to work on becoming a starting pitcher. Pallante believed the role would suit him. He would serve the Cardinals in any pitching role, but Pallante was confident in his potential to develop into an effective big-league starter.

It’s a good thing Pallante spoke up and made his request or he still could be getting pounded as a major-league reliever or sentenced to a long-term bullpen role that didn’t make sense. It says something about the state of the Cardinals when a young pitcher trying to establish himself initiated the process of working as a starting pitcher.

The Cardinals didn’t approach Pallante about making the move; Pallante approached the Cardinals and suggested the move. Manager Oli Marmol and pitching coach Dusty Blake were receptive and gave Pallante a list of things to work on during the transition from reliever to starter.

But why didn’t president of baseball operations John Mozeliak and Marmol and Blake see the possibilities with Pallante? Why was it up to Pallante to propose the change?

What if Pallante had just accepted the way the Cardinals viewed him? What if he had continued toiling as an ineffective reliever, never getting an opportunity to show what he could do as a rotation piece? And with starting Steven Matz suffering a back injury in late April, the Cardinals had to cultivate a fill-in starter … and after a few weeks, Pallante was ready.

Based on preseason expectations, Pallante has been a marvel in a starting role. After being trapped in no-man’s land by an organization that didn’t really know what to do with him, Pallante made the request and got his wish to work as a starting pitcher. And the Cardinals are better off for it, because they can confidently put Pallante into their 2025 rotation and have one less thing to worry about.

It was fun to watch Pallante outpitch the Pittsburgh rookie sensation Paul Skenes in Monday’s 4-0 win. Pallante pitched seven shutout innings, allowing four hits and a walk while striking out a career-high nine hitters.

LET’S GO TO THE PALLANTE FILE

Here are some nuggets that show how Pallante has performed as a starting pitcher.

1. Pallante’s 3.62 ERA in his 18 starts is the best by a Cardinals starting pitcher this season.

2. Since joining the rotation, Pallante is the only STL starter that has an ERA less than 4.31. I’ll list them in order: Pallante 3.62, Sonny Gray 4.31, Nick Fedde, 4.43, Kyle Gibson 4.47, Lance Lynn 4.50, Miles Mikolas 5.40.

3. From May 29 through Sept. 16, Pallante had a better starting-pitcher ERA than a bunch of notables including Dylan Cease, Freddy Peralta, Luis Castillo, Logan Webb, Kevin Gausman, Nathan Eovaldi, Seth Lugo, Shota Imanaga, Chris Bassit, Charlie Morton, Jameson Taillon and Carlos Rodon.

4. Here are the top five ERAs by NL Central division starters since May 29: Paul Skenes 2.05, Justin Steele 2.63, Tobias Myers 3.78, Pallante 3.62, Freddy Peralta 3.83.

5. Among innings-qualified starters since May 29, Pallante has the 11th best ERA in the National League and is 23rd overall.

6. We tend to forget that Pallante made 10 starts as a rookie in 2022 and pitched pretty well, compiling a 3.75 ERA before being put back in the bullpen.

7. In 28 career MLB starts Pallante has a 3.75 ERA. Among National League starters that have pitched at least 150 innings since the start of 2022, Pallante has the same ERA as Sonny Gray and Pablo Lopez and a better ERA than Aaron Nola, Marcus Stroman, Hunter Greene, Jesus Lazardo, Jose Urquidy, Tanner Houck, Andrew Abbott, Jack Flaherty, Lance Lynn and Jordan Montgomery. I didn’t say Pallante is better than any of these pitchers; his sample size isn’t as large and there are many other ways to measure starting pitchers. I’m just saying that his career ERA as a starter puts him in good company.

PALLANTE VS. RIGHT-HANDED BATTERS: Until this year, when he moved into a rotation, Pallante had struggled terribly against RH batters. Pallante did a solid job against left-handed hitters but the reverse platoon split got him.

That’s changed since Pallante developed a sinker that he can throw on the low-and-outside part of the plate to RH batters. That sinker has gotten a lot of attention, but the slider is Pallante’s best pitch to neutralize the right-side hitters.

Since Pallante began starting on May .29, RH batters have hit .242 with a .275 onbase percentage and .364 slugging percentage against his slider. The pitch has popped for just one home run in the 66 at-bats that end with a slider. And the slider has generated a 52 percent ground-ball rate against right-handed batters in his 18 starts this season.

Pallante’s slider handcuffed the Pirates on Monday. According to Statcast, the Pirates RH batters went 2 for 10 against Pallante’s slider (both singles) and struck out four times. When used against right-swinging opponents, the slider produced a 40 percent strikeout rate and 66.6 ground-ball rate. Well done.

BASEBALL CAN BE STRANGE: This season the Cardinals lost two of three games to the hideous White Sox – but WON two of three games in their matchups against Skenes.

Weird. Skenes did his part against St. Louis, ceding only three earned runs in 20 and ⅔ innings for a 1.31 ERA. The big man also struck out 31 percent of Cardinal hitters in the three assignments.

But the Pirates went 1-2 in the three Skenes assignments vs. STL. Their lone victory came June 11 on a rare bad night for Cards reliever Ryan Helsley. The contest was scoreless through eight innings and the Pirates broke through for two runs against Helsley in the 9th. Pirates reliever David Bednar gave up a run in the bottom of the 9th but the Pirates held on for a 2-1 win. Skenes worked 6 and ⅓ shutout innings and was long gone by the time the outcome was decided.

The crazy part? The three St. Louis starting pitchers who faced Skenes were brilliant. Miles Mikolas, Lance Lynn and Pallante combined for 19 shutout innings in the three starts and gave only nine hits and five walks.

While Skenes was actually in the game, still pitching against the Cardinals in his three starts, the Pirates scored one run for him in 20 and ⅔ innings. Individual pitcher won-lost records can be terribly misleading, and Skenes shows that. His individual record is 0-2 against the Cardinals and 10-1 against all other opponents.

CARDINALS AND THREE-RUN HOMERS: Growing up in Baltimore watching Earl Weaver baseball, I took note of Earl’s love of three-run homers. The grand-slam home run has more mystique and is more celebrated, but Earl was crazy for the three-run shots. He built his offensive philosophy around having a lineup that drew a lot of walks, put pitchers against the ropes, and broke games open with a barrage of three-run homers. Weaver proudly proclaimed that his Oriole foundation was “pitching, defense and three-run homers.” And for that era of baseball – he managed continually from 1969 through 1982 – they drilled a lot of them.

The 2024 Cardinals do not hit many of these game-breaking home runs, having produced a three-run bomb only nine times this season. That’s tied with the Marlins for the fewest in the National League. The Cardinals’ last three-run HR was ripped by Brendan Donovan at Yankee Stadium on Aug. 31. Before that, the Cards hadn’t deposited a three-run homer since May 4. This is pathetic. That said, here’s a tip of the old ballcap to Alec Burleson, who walloped four of the team’s nine three-run blasts to date.

The 2024 Cards are bad at hitting home runs of any variety. Really bad. The Cardinals are rather feeble overall in the attempt to launch home runs, ranking 24th overall and 12th in the NL with an average of 1.02 HRs per game.

Whitey Herzog’s teams were built on speed, pitching and defense. Home runs were fine, but not a priority. The Redbirds would run opponents ragged. His 1982 World Series champs had only eight three-run homers during the regular season. Herzog traded for Jack Clark to add power, but homers weren’t the focal point of the offense. His 1985 NL championship team went yard for 16 three-run homers, and the 1987 champs hit 11 of them. That’s still more than the 2024 Cardinals have now, and that’s pretty sad.

NOTE FROM BOB NIGHTENGALE: In his weekly MLB notes column, USA Today’s national baseball writer had this to say about the Cardinals’ front-office intrigue:

“While John Mozeliak, president of baseball operations plans to step down after the 2025 season, special assistant Chaim Bloom is expected to have much greater authority next season, perhaps even become the top baseball decision-maker.”

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing. Here’s the link:

https://www.youtube.com/@TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: The Cardinals Didn’t Think Andre Pallante Could Be A Good Starting Pitcher. They Were Wrong. He Was Right. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE MIZ …ZOU REVIEW

Just a note to the readers before I get into the game review: I would like to write these Miz-zou Reviews on Sunday. But I need time to work up some of these numbers. And some data wasn’t available until Monday. Even if I get this online later than I’d like to, I wanted to pass along some of my observations and the pertinent info that could be pulled from Saturday’s 27-21 victory. When I have the proper time, these reviews will have more details.

Let’s begin …

Missouri had to overcome early trouble for a 27-21 victory over No. 24 Boston College on Saturday in CoMo. It was the first real test of tackle football this season for the Tigers, and the visitors from Chestnut Hill didn’t roll over.

On the interweb, I saw some mild complaints and low-level dissatisfaction from Mizzou backers. Nothing major, but the opinions went something like this: As the nation’s sixth-ranked team going into the game, Missouri should have dominated at home.

I have mixed feelings about that.

Sure, we’d like to see Mizzou enter the competition as a sharp, smart, maximum-performance engine. To me that seems harder to do when the first two contests of 2024 featured two no-contest walkovers against hemoglobin donors from Murray State and Buffalo.

Mizzou is plenty talented, but this isn’t supposed to be easy. Last season the Washington Huskies had a lot of close calls along the way to a spot in the national championship game and the eventual loss to Michigan. Washington’s wins included fight-club skirmishes against Arizona (31-24), Arizona State (15-7), Stanford (42-33), Oregon State (22-20) and Washington State (24-21.)

Just because a team is ranked among the top 10 teams in the land, it doesn’t ensure dominance in every game – or even most games. In my not-so-humble opinion, I think it was more beneficial for Mizzou to stay poised and work hard after being submerged in an early 14-3 deficit. Just like the perilous 30-27 win over Kansas State in Week 3 last season, the 2024 Tigers should be stronger for the experience. When your team can survive a threat and prevail, they’ll have more confidence to handle unsettling episodes that threaten their record and ranking.

I firmly believed Missouri would face a battle when Boston College came into Faurot Field. The final betting line in the game had Mizzou favored by 14 and 1/2 points. Too much. On my Friday YouTube video Friday I predicted a Mizzou victory – but with BC staying close enough to cover the point spread.

And that’s what happened. And the Eagles probably got more than a few Mizzou fans (including me) at least a little nervous by stinging the Tigers for two authoritative touchdown drives that forged an 11-point lead. OK, what’s up with this? Where is this game going? Will the Tigers panic and fold under pressure? Or would they respond in a way that actually reaffirmed their elevated status?

Well, we know the answer.

And it’s positive.

To review ….

1. Terrific response from the Mizzou defense. The new defensive coordinator Corey Batoon settled his guys down after some blown pass coverages. He began giving the Boston College offense some multiple looks to create a little confusion and uncertainty. And after BC went ahead 14-3, here’s what happened on the Eagles’ next five possessions:

• Interception, one play for minus 10 yards
• Punt, eight plays for 35 yards
• Punt, three plays for 1 yard
• Punt, six players for 8 yards
• Interception, three plays for two yards.

That’s 56 yards yielded on 21 plays – an average of 2.66 yards per play. Plus, two important takeaways. And three punts. Meanwhile, the Mizzou offense kicked in after an ineffective start. And by the time MU finished stuffing BC on five straight possessions, the home team had a 27-14 lead. That’s exactly what Mizzou fans wanted to see: an empathic response to the early challenge thrown down by the Eagles.

2. The Missouri rushing attack appears to be in good hands. No more Cody Schrader. The Mizzou legend will be missed. But Nate Noel and Marcus Carroll were impressive, combining for 178 yards rushing on 34 carries. They collectively churned for 79 yards after contact. They were stuffed only twice. And perhaps the best part of this was their decisiveness on runs. When a play is designed to attack a specific gap, you want running backs that will hit the hole instead of dancing around, or bobbing and weaving.

On Saturday, Noel and Carroll hit the designed gap on 97 percent of their rushing attempts. That’s outstanding, especially considering that Schrader had a hit-the-gap rate of 72.4 percent against Power 5 competition.

In the second and third quarters, when the Tigers turned an 11-point deficit into a double-digit lead, Noel and Carroll combined for 118 yards rushing on 20 attempts for an average of just under 6 yards per run. And they had 57 yards after contact.

Here’s another thing that stood out for me. Sports Info Solutions files running plays into three separate categories: “positive” rushes, “boom” rushes, and “bust” rushes.

Noel and Carroll did not have a single “bust” run in this game. The positive-run percentage was 27.3 percent for Noel, and an eye-opening 41.7 percent for Carroll. The “boom” run percentages were 4.5 percent for Noel, and 8.3% for Carroll. Noel got the bulk of the carries (22), but Mizzou has to be thrilled to go at opponents with two highly capable running backs. There wasn’t any fall-off when Noel was out of the game. In some ways – which I’ve pointed to – Carroll was even better. It was only one game, but this was a very good thing for the Tigers.

3. Quarterback Brady Cook must improve his downfield accuracy. I’m not going bananas on this, but so far he’s completed only 2 of 10 passes on throws that cover 20+ yards in the air. (This includes the blowouts of Murray State and Buffalo.) Last season, Cook connected on 47 percent of his throws that flew at least 20 yards – and struck for nine touchdowns with only two interceptions. Cook can do better than what we’ve seen so far … and I believe he will do better.

4. Luther Burden doesn’t have to go deep to be a dangerous receiver. He zipped Boston College for 117 yards and a touchdown on six receptions. The average target distance for Burden in this game was 14.6 yards. Last season, against Power 5 teams, Burden had an average target depth of 9.1 yards. At least for one game, offensive coordinator Kirby Moore placed Burden into a more aggressive mode. There were a couple of missed connections, but the beautiful thing about Burden is his superb ability to snatch a shorter pass and turn it into something bigger. Saturday, his six catches averaged 6.7 yards from the throw to the spot of the catch. But Burden stretched them out with his moves and his speed, averaging 13 yards after the catch. Burden’s receiver rating in this game (156.3) topped his rating (105.3) last season against Power 5 opponents. Yes, this one game … but he’s Luther Burden. And he’s a dangerous receiver, no matter where he catches the football.

5. Too many penalties. Obviously. Eight for 91 yards. That degree of self sabotage could lead to losses that should have been wins. The coaches and players know this, so hopefully for the Tigers the discipline will be tighter.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis and Mizzou sports through his columns, radio shows, podcasts and video commentaries since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing.

Here’s the link: TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

Stats used in this column were from Sports Info Solutions and Pro Football Focus.

The post Bernie’s MIZ-ZOU Review: The Tigers Responded To Early Trouble And Passed Their First Test Of The Season. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

Last call … for mediocre baseball.

The 2024 St. Louis Cardinals are down to their final home stand of the season. Starting Monday night, the Redbirds have four games against the Pirates, followed by a three-game weekend series vs. the Guardians. Rumor has it that plenty of good seats are available. It’s hard to believe, right?

Here’s a list of players, coaches, the manager and front-office executives that are on my mind as we watch the Cardinals play ball at Busch Stadium for the last time this year.

Their next regular-season game on the home grounds is the 2025 season-opener, scheduled against the Twins, on March 27. Who will be back? I have some thoughts on this. No tippy-toe waste of your time. Only strong opinions.

Bill DeWitt Jr. More and more, I’m being asked this question: are the Cardinals for sale? Does DeWitt want to sell? I’m not privy to any information that goes against the standard “no sale” responses from team president Bill DeWitt III. BD III has been consistent about this. I’m inclined to still believe him, but I could be wrong. I’ve covered four different NFL franchise moves in my career, and in each instance I had doubts – at least initially – about the team leaving. I’ve learned that I can’t predict these things, because we never know what wealthy franchise owners will do.

When DeWitt and his partners purchased the Cardinals from Anheuser-Busch, the serious negotiations stayed deeply underground for months, until word leaked out (strategically) in December, 1995.

Chairman DeWitt is 83. Fans are disillusioned and angry and purchased fewer tickets this season. And among those who bought tickets, we saw an alarming number of no-shows, especially after the All-Star break. The Cardinals require a rebuild, a reset or whatever we choose to call it. The time-consuming process could be painful and stretch out over the next two or three seasons. The process would likely reduce the enthusiasm level of their fans.

And that’s not all. According to multiple media reports in August, the DeWitts are planning to pitch the city of St. Louis, St. Louis County and state of Missouri to assist in the financing of significant stadium renovations to modernize Busch. This figures to be a tough sell … and a tough fight.

If the situation turns contentious – and if the future of the Cardinals’ contract with Bally Sports Midwest remains unclear – it’s hardly irresponsible to wonder about DeWitt’s desire to go through so much wrangling and anxiety. The Cardinals would be easy to sell. The profits would be immense.

But until the DeWitts say or indicate otherwise, there’s no concrete reason to assume this franchise will go on the market. Bill DeWitt Jr. has been a terrific, accomplished owner through most of his 29 seasons at the top.

I recognize and applaud the tremendous success by the Cardinals under DeWitt’s guidance. But nothing lasts forever, and teams that don’t change and evolve tend to fall behind and relinquish the qualities that made them so great for so long.

As I’ve said multiple times: DeWitt doesn’t have to sell the team – but he must fix the team. And also deal with the push for help in stadium renovations, and the local-TV murkiness. None of these things are simple matters.

John Mozeliak: the president of baseball operations is under contract through the end of the 2025 season. Since the start of the 2016 season, the Cardinals rank 10th in the majors with a .526 winning percentage. But they’ve won only four postseason games over the previous seven seasons. And since the start of last season, the Cardinals have the worst winning percentage (.466) among the five NL Central teams, and only three NL teams have won fewer games. The Cardinals have imploded, with problems hitting every part of their outdated baseball model. Massive changes are needed, modernization is absolutely necessary, and at this stage of his career Mozeliak is the wrong person to be in charge of the project.

If Mozeliak returns at full power as head of the baseball operations in 2025, the fans will revolt. Ticket sales would drop. Franchise credibility will continue to erode.
The team’s widespread popularity will continue to wane.

Even if “Mo” moves into the background for his final season, that won’t satisfy fans who are firm in their collective belief that he’s the team’s biggest problem. It would be best for Mozeliak to make a clean break after the season. That way a new regime can get underway with its extremely important business without any clouds or mistrust hovering over the baseball department. That’s possible, but I’m not sure what to expect.

Chaim Bloom: Any consideration of using 2025 as a transitional hand-off year from Mozeliak to his likely successor is pretty absurd. If Bloom was brought here as a consultant to study every aspect of the baseball operation in 2024, surely he now understands the scope of the job and the changes that must be made. That was made obvious by the retirement of longtime director of player development Gary LaRocque. If Bloom isn’t ready to move into the big chair after investing an entire season to formulate a “Save the Cardinals” plan … then why would he be considered the best person for the job?

How many current heads of MLB team baseball operations needed a two-season, work-study visa before ascending to the No. 1 spot? When these execs are hired to run the baseball ops, they move in right away and get real busy. They don’t need two years to prep for the job. And Bloom has been the top baseball executive for two teams. He’s widely respected in the industry. He isn’t some rookie-level junior executive.

If Bloom stays in Mozeliak’s shadow for another year, the promise of a 2026 takeover won’t appease anyone that is already turned off by the state of the Cardinals. Fans will remain suspicious about DeWitt’s commitment to change … and to winning.

Oli Marmol: I think Marmol is better than he gets credit for and he’s certainly not the reason why the Cardinals will miss the postseason for a second consecutive season. I’m not trying to change anyone’s mind on that, and I’m not here to debate the strengths and weaknesses of his managing ability. By now, people already have made up their minds, and Marmol appears to be quite unpopular with the red-clad populace.

When we talk about Marmol’s future, it should be centered on what’s best for the franchise. It isn’t about being fair or unfair, or doing what’s best for Marmol. And if there is a case for keeping Marmol, his many critics won’t listen, anyway. Making a case to a jury that’s already reached a “guilty” verdict – even before being sent to deliberate – is a guaranteed defeat for Marmol’s defense team.

If Mozeliak remains in charge, it won’t be good for Marmol. Oh, Marmol would probably have a better chance of keeping his job with Mozeliak calling the shots. But as long as Mozeliak is running things, the MO-MARMOL partnership will throttle a true reset. Marmol is so closely aligned with Mozeliak, he can’t avoid the animosity that’s directed at Mozeliak – because a lot of that animosity is also channeled at Marmol.

Oli got the job as a direct result of the feud that obliterated the relationship between Mozeliak and former manager Mike Shildt. Do you think another MLB team would have hired Marmol before the 2022 season? The obvious answer is no. Do you think another MLB team would hire Marmol as manager for 2025 if the Cardinals sack him after this season? That’s also a no.

Here’s the reality: being unconditionally viewed as MO’s guy – handpicked to replace Shildt – is toxic for Marmol. As a business and fan-relations consideration, it would be calamitous to have the Mozeliak-Marmol combination in place for 2025.

Bloom-Marmol: OK, so what happens if Bloom takes over following the season? Surely he would go hire his own manager, right? I don’t know. But even if Bloom sincerely believes Marmol is the right man for the gig, it won’t matter in the court of public opinion.

If retaining Marmol is Bloom’s first decision, then Bloom would be off to a rocky start with Cardinals fans who are taking notes and wondering if Bloom will be a driving force for change … or more of the same.

Cardinals fans will be looking for evidence that gives them a reason to believe the new baseball boss isn’t the same as the old baseball boss. And if Bloom keeps Mozeliak’s manager, then fans will be very slow to come around on Bloom and trust him. Bloom’s approval ratings would immediately plummet. And that’s an abysmal way to launch a new regime.

Here’s a final point: the Cardinals would owe Marmol two years of salary if they sack him after the season. What if DeWitt is opposed to paying a manager for not managing … while also paying the new manager? If Bloom thinks it’s best to go get a new manager, then he should be allowed to do so. But DeWitt could have final say on the future of the manager’s office.

Michael Girsch: Unless Girsch has another opportunity that compels him to move, he’ll likely be around as Mozeliak’s top assistant. Girsch, the general manager, does a lot of the advance work for potential moves, and contract negotiations. If Mozeliak moves to more of a background role in 2025, I don’t know what this would mean for Girsch – simply because we don’t know how Bloom feels about Girsch. But if DeWitt wants Bloom to inherit Mozeliak’s team of advisors … Well, I’d have to wonder why Bloom wants this job. Again, the key word here is CHANGE.

Coaching staff: update the resumes, men. There is no reason to retain any of the batting coaches. I’m undecided on pitching coach Dusty Blake, who lacks the resources that other MLB pitching coaches can reach for. Willie McGee is untouchable and is really good at coaching baserunning, and helping outfielders on the finer points of defense. Third base coach Pop Warner and first base coach Stubby Clapp have been around a long time.

If the Cardinals are trying to rebrand with a message of hope – change is here! – they’ll destroy the premise by bringing too many of the same people back in 2025. How the heck does the idea of “change” mean anything if there are no changes other than sacking a hitting coach or two? The Cardinals have to be more ambitious in putting together a coaching staff. Instead of hiring and promoting company men from inside the organization, the Cardinals must strive to hire the best baseball minds who are out there and willing to listen to a job offer. This enterprise needs new voices, new ideas, and new ways to find solutions to problem. The baseball operation also needs increased financial resources to update a moldy infrastructure.

Paul Goldschmidt: He’s 37, having the worst season of career (by far) and a late hot streak and positive set of Statcast metrics aren’t convincing enough to justify bringing Goldy back for another year or two. Goldschmidt, a pending free agent, may have his own ideas about where he wants to be in 2025 – maybe with a team that has a much better chance of winning than the Cardinals?

Nolan Arenado: He’ll be 34 early next season and already is in the trap of age-related decline, sitting with a below-average OPS+ for the first time his age-22 rookie season in 2013. Over the last three seasons his slugging percentage went from .533 in 2022, to .459 last year, to .393 this season.

Arenado’s contract is complicated, but here’s about the best I can do, at least for now: Arenado is due $25.6 million next season, $20.6 million in 2026, and then $15 million in 2027. So that’s around $60 million guaranteed. Good luck trying to offload that contract, and Arenado has a no-trade clause. The Cardinals wouldn’t have much of a chance to move Arenado unless they are willing to pay a large percentage of that $60 million.

Miles Mikolas: The righthander, 36, has a guaranteed payroll salary of $16.7 million for next season. Over the last two seasons, among 96 MLB starting pitchers that have thrown at least 200 innings, Mikolas ranks 93rd in ERA (5.10), 91st in strikeout rate (16.4%) and last in swing-miss rate (7.1%). The Cardinals could eat the money owed to Mikolas, move on, and freshen the rotation. I don’t think they’ll do that. What we can expect to see is Mozeliak (or someone else) pointing to the value in the large supply of innings Mikolas provides. And his Fielding Independent ERA over the last two seasons (4.25) ranks 62nd. That FIP will give the Cardinals a platform to talk about poor Miles and his lousy batted-ball luck.

I think there are teams out there that would welcome an innings-devouring starter for the back of the rotation, and since the start of last season Mikolas ranks 12th for most innings pitched. So there could be a market for him – but not at full salary. The Cardinals would have to be willing to digest 40 to 50 percent of his 2025 salary to make a deal work. And they wouldn’t receive much in return. This would be reminiscent of the trades that sent outfielder Dexter Fowler to the Angels and starting pitcher Mike Leake to the Mariners.

Matt Carpenter + Lance Lynn: I assume this will be it – at least in St. Louis – for the two respected graybeards who have played a combined 19 years for the Cardinals over their two stints. Carpenter turns 39 just after Thanksgiving and Lynn reaches his 38th birthday in late May of next season. Though Lynn’s role was more extensive, both men won World Series rings for being a part of the 2011 squad – the most recent won by the franchise. I hope they’ll receive a warm sendoff this week by the fans, even before a sparse crowd.

ONE MORE THING BEFORE I GO

Here’s ESPN’s Buster Olney, from his insider story about executives and managers with the most at stake over the final weeks of the season. Postseason considerations are part of this, but that doesn’t apply to the 2024 Cardinals.

“John Mozeliak has run the St. Louis Cardinals’ baseball operations since after the 2007 season. Under his guidance, the Cardinals won the World Series in 2011 and played for a championship in 2013. But they’ve struggled in recent seasons, and Mozeliak is nearing the end of his current contract in 2025.

“Chaim Bloom, formerly the Red Sox general manager, joined the Cardinals’ front office this year and is widely seen by his front office peers as the inevitable choice to take over whenever Mozeliak moves on.

“Even after being fired in Boston, Bloom has earned praise from his peers for restocking Boston’s farm system and modernizing the way the Red Sox evaluated and developed players.

“Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol, meanwhile, is under contract through the 2026 season, after receiving an extension before this season started. If the Cardinals wanted to hire another manager, they’d have to pay off Marmol’s deal. ‘That’s not an organization that likes to pay people for not working,’ said one rival official.”

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing. Here’s the link: TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: Final 2024 Home Stand For The Cardinals, And A Look At Potential Changes. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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BIRD BYTES

1. In his last five games for Triple A Memphis, Nolan Gorman has larruped four home runs, batted .333, and slugged 1.000. He also walked three times and struck out only twice in the five games.

2. Gorman has made progress, striking out only 11 times in 67 plate appearances (16.4%) since being sent to Memphis. In 107 games for the Cardinals this season, Gorman had a horrendous strikeout rate of 37.6 percent.

3. Isn’t it something, the way struggling young hitters like Gorman have to go to Memphis to work with the staff there to cure their problems – but no one on major-league staff has any idea of what to do. It’s absolutely embarrassing.

4. In Thursday’s 6-1 win over Cincinnati, Winn batted first and Alec Burleson hit second. They had a good day at the top of the lineup, going 3 for 5 with a solo home run by Winn. This was a change. Before Thursday, when Winn and Burly started the game and batted No. 1 and 2, the top-lineup tandem had batted only .234 in 18 games – with only one homer, seven RBIs, and seven extra-base hits in 234 at-bats.

5. Some encouraging news. MLB.com ranked the top farm systems with the best set of pitching prospects, and the Cardinals came in at No. 3 on a list of 11 teams in an analysis done by Sam Dykstra, Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo.

“No. 82 overall prospect Quinn Mathews has been arguably the most effective pitcher in Minor League Baseball this season as he’s led the Minors in strikeouts (193) while climbing four levels in his first full season, and he doesn’t even have the highest ceiling among arms in his own organization,” they wrote. “That distinction belongs to No. 50 Tink Hence, who has elite pure stuff as he looks at a potential debut in 2025. Tekoah Roby and Cooper Hjerpe have battled injuries this summer but have rotation upside, while Michael McGreevy and Gordon Graceffo have already served as organizational depth with the chance to be more next spring.”

6. That’s good to know. But Hence had to leave his Wednesday start after 1 and ⅓ innings with an unspecified injury. He can’t stay healthy. Hence has averaged a strong 12.3 strikeouts per nine innings for Double A Springfield. But he’s pitched only 79 and ⅔ innings this season.

7. In the first two games of the low Class A playoffs, No. 7 overall draft choice J.J. Wetherholt went 4 for 8 with a homer, three RBIs and two walks against Daytona. In 31 games for the Palm Beach Cardinals (including playoffs), Wetherholt has hit .310 with a .419 onbase percentage and .434 slug. Will we see him in the majors next season?

8. Here’s The Athletic on Cardinals rookie infielder Thomas Saggese: “Talk to baseball folks about Saggese, and a few phrases start to become themes: “throwback,” … “old school,” … “plays the right way,” … “old soul,” … “that’s my guy” and “glue guy” … are some (we) heard on repeat from front office members and former teammates.”

9. Nolan Arenado is batting .194 with a soft .306 slugging percentage in September and has two RBIs in 42 plate appearances over his 10 games.

10. The Cardinals are 7-4 this month despite their offense being held to four or fewer runs in eight of 11 games.

11. St. Louis is 13-8 since Aug. 21 but couldn’t get into contention. The Cardinals needed to catch three teams to snatch the No. 3 wild card. But since Aug. 21 those three teams have gone 15-5 (Mets), 13-7 (Cubs) and 12-9 (Braves.)

12. In September, Tommy Edman has four home runs and 10 RBIs in 10 games and 40 at-bats for the Dodgers. And in September, Paul Goldschmidt and Arenado have combined for two homers and six RBIs in 20 games and 76 at-bats.

13. Former Cardinals starting pitcher Jack Flaherty is 5-1 with a 2.61 ERA in his first seven starts for the Dodgers. Before he was traded to LA, Flaherty had a 2.86 ERA in 18 starts for the Tigers.

That’s it for today, and thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing. Here’s the link: @TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Bird Bytes: Nolan Gorman Is Doing Well At Memphis, But Why Can’t The Cardinals Fix Hitters Up Here? appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

I want to go with something positive today, and it’s not because I’m being a softy, or a Cardinals’ apologist, or scanning the cloudy sky for a ray of hope.

The Cards are 74-72, and won’t be in the postseason tournament, and the ownership and management has a helluva lot of work to do in the coming offseason. This trend of mediocrity must come to an end.

But when a team is having a so-so season, I don’t believe in trashing everything and ignoring or denying the quality performances in a fit of childish spite. If something is good, I’ll write about it. Talk about it. Do videos about it.

The Cardinals bullpen isn’t just good in 2024.

It’s been great.

And frankly, I don’t think this has received enough attention. The Cardinals have one star position player, Masyn Winn. And the Cards have only one area of the team that has starred – and that would be the kick-ass bullpen.

Let’s look at the St. Louis bullpen and where their relievers stand among the 29 teams that have represented the franchise since Bill DeWitt Jr. purchased the business in 1996 …

– ERA: 3.65, 10th of 29
– Fielding Independent ERA: 3.81, 5th of 29
– Win Probability Added: 5th of 29.
– Relief shutdowns: 148, 4th of 29

And then there’s the rather serious matter of protecting late leads. The 2024 Cardinals are 56-3 when leading a game through seven innings. That winning percentage of .949 ranks 6th among the 28 full seasons under DeWitt.

When leading a game through eight innings, the ‘24 Cardinals are 60-1 for a .984 winning percentage that ranks fourth in a full season. The current group is one of only four DeWitt Era bullpens to lose just one game after taking a lead into the ninth.

These stats entail extra-innings games won by the Cards despite squandering a late lead. But that same standard applies to every St. Louis bullpen since 1996, so this is hardly a doctored stat.

And some of the individual accomplishments are notable and worthy of praise:

RYAN HELSLEY: He’s MLB leader with 44 saves, and is making a run at the top-three number of saves by Cards relievers since the start of 1996. The closers ahead of Helsley are Trevor Rosenthal with 48 in 2015), Jason Isringhausen with 45 in 2004, and Rosenthal with 45 in 2014.

But Izzy and Rosey piled up those saves on teams that won more games than the 2024 Cardinals – a reality that created more save opportunities for them. That makes Helsley’s 44 closures even more impressive. He’s blown only four saves all season. Among the relievers that have racked at least 44 saves in a season during the DeWitt Era, Helsley’s current save rate (91.6%) was topped only by Rosenthal (94.1%) in 2015.

Helsley’s Win Probability Added rating is the best by a St. Louis reliever in a season since DeWitt became the chairman in 1996. And on a side note, Helsley also has the second-highest WPA over the 29 seasons. That came in 2022.

If we include the Whitey Herzog Era, the only two relievers who had a higher WPA in a season than Helsley does this year were Bruce Sutter in 1984, and Jeff Lahti in 1985. And since 1982, Helsley’s current 2.0 WAR is tied for fifth most by a Redbird reliever.

SETUP MEN: Helsley’s two primary shutdown partners – Andrew Kittredge and JoJo Romero, rank second and sixth in the majors (respectively) in most holds. Kittredge’s current total of 33 holds rank second for most holds by a Cardinal reliever in a season since 1982. Mitchell Boggs had 34 in 2012.

BULLPEN DOMINATED THE REDS: The St. Louis bullpen prowess was on full display in the Cardinals’ series win over the Reds. In the three games, St. Louis relievers faced 38 hitters and pitched 11 scoreless innings. Kittredge, Helsley, Romero, John King, Matthew Liberatore, Ryan Fernandez and Chris Roycroft held the Reds to three hits (all singles) and two walks for an .083 average and .132 onbase percentage. And they combined for a 26 percent strikeout rate.

WHERE THE BULLPEN STANDS NOW: At the conclusion of the Reds series the St. Louis bullpen ranked first in the majors in saves, first in shutdowns, seventh in WPA, seventh in ERA and sixth in Fielding Independent ERA.

It’s a shame that the front office couldn’t put a better starting rotation and offense together to give the 2024 relievers more chances to preserve wins and put more saves in the bag.

Cardinals starting pitchers rank 23rd in the majors with a 4.48 ERA and the team’s offense is 24th with an average of 4.11 runs scored per game.

Thanks for reading and I hope you have a fantastic weekend …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing. Here’s the link: @TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: A Boffo Bullpen Has Been The Star Of The Cardinals’ 2024 Season. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

Here we go again. The Cardinals cannot escape their recent past and the decisions they’ve made to part ways with several players.

Let’s update the list:

TOMMY EDMAN

He’s going bananas for his new team, the Dodgers. After his first 21 games with Los Angeles, Edman went into Thursday with a .300 average and .500 slugging percentage. He’d thrashed for four home runs and two doubles in only 80 at-bats. And through Wednesday, the switch-hitter had pummeled left-handed pitchers for three homers, a double and a triple in just 28 plate appearances. His barrage against lefties included a .444 average and .889 slugging percentage.

(This is the part when I update the Cardinals’ stats against left-handed pitching in 2024, through Wednesday’s game: .229 avg, .292 OBP and .358 slug. Dreadful.)

This week Edman homered twice on Tuesday … and did it again with two home runs Wednesday. Yes. He did that. Two home runs in back-to-back games. And in Wednesday’s power-ball show, Edman hit a home run from each side of the plate for the first time in his big-league career.

In his last 13 games Edman batted .353 with a .608 slug. The Dodgers have been using him in center field and at shortstop, and he’s stolen five bases for LA without getting caught.

Stat that will make you wince: when playing as a center fielder, Edman has four home runs in 57 at-bats. As a team, the Cardinals have gotten four home runs from their center fielders in 472 at-bats.

“I feel like I’ve kind of gotten locked into a good routine in the cage, working on mechanics and having consistent movements in my swing and the results are paying off,” Edman told reporters in Los Angeles.

Just to recap, the Cardinals traded their popular, super-utility dude to the Dodgers in a three-way deal that transported White Sox starting pitcher Erick Fedde to St. Louis. Landing Fedde was a smart idea because the Cardinals have to upgrade their rotation (again) and Fedde is under contract through 2025.

Until the trade deadline, Edman had been sidelined all season after undergoing wrist surgery last offseason, and he had several setbacks in his injury rehab along the way. His salary was $2.5 million this year and he’ll be paid a guaranteed $9.5 million for 2025. Edman can become a free agent after next season.

We can make the case that Tommy was expandable. The Cardinals had another super-utility dude on the roster in Brendan Donovan – and another super-utility dude on the way in Thomas Saggese.

Moreover, the Redbirds had just made J.J. Wetherholt the seventh overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft; many third-party draft evaluators considered him the best pure hitter on the board. Wetherholt is a shortstop who will probably be moved to second base or possibly third base.

The Cardinals planned to make Edman their regular center fielder but his injury obviously changed the outlook. Management decided to trade one year and two months of Edman for two months and one year of Fedde. (That’s based on the two months left in the season at the time of the trade, plus all of 2025.)

There was logic in their thinking, but that doesn’t mean we should dismiss what Edman is doing for the Dodgers so far. Edman going elsewhere to thrive – immediately – fits a disturbing pattern with the St. Louis front office and field staff.

As of now the Cardinals would go into 2025 with either Michael Siani or Victor Scott II as their starter in CF. Siani is excellent defensively but has limited power. Scott has strong upside offensively and is working to improve his first-step defense. Between them, Scott and Siani have a combined 467 major-league plate appearances.

Unless the Cardinals bring in an established center fielder with proven hitting talent – I’d be surprised if they did – it’s natural to question whether center field will be an area of above-average offense in 2025. We saw positive flashes of Scott’s hitting skill after he worked with Ryan Ludwick to add a toe-tap to his swing. Siani’s season batting line is pedestrian – .246 average, .286 OBP and .308 slug – but he’s batted .291 with a .337 OBP since July 5.

TYLER O’NEILL

OK, we kind of knew this would happen. The enigmatic strong man was set up for a fresh start in Boston this season, and he’s walloped his way into the hearts of the Red Sox faithful with 30 home runs, 17 doubles and a .546 slugging percentage. O’Neill has homered every 12.4 at-bats, hits for a load of power at Fenway Park and on the road. Bro’Neill has missed time with injuries (of course) but had made his way onto the field for 101 games through Wednesday. That’s the most he’s played in a season since 2021. And this is his best season offensively since busting loose for the 2021 Cardinals for 34 homers, 80 RBIs, a .560 slug and .912 OPS.

O’Neill was hospitalized in August with a leg infection, and it took him time to reheat once he returned. But with the Red Sox barely alive in the quest for a wild-card spot, O’Neill has clouted five homers with a .350 batting average in his last five games. He beat the Orioles with a three-run walkoff homer in the 10th inning Wednesday at Fenway.

“He was in the hospital, doing nothing, and to try to catch up with big-league pitching, it was hard,” Boston manager Alex Cora told reporters late Wednesday evening. “But little by little, he’s been feeling great… It feels like every pitch, every at-bat, he’s going to do damage with it. And we needed that one. That was huge.”

A frequent resident of the Injured List in St. Louis had reached the end of the line with the Cardinals. They ran out of patience – and I don’t blame them – and decided to move him just to move him. The Cards traded him to Boston for two pitchers including high-velocity reliever prospect Nick Robertson.

This turned out poorly for the Cardinals. Though Robertson showed a promising strikeout punch in his brief time with the Cardinals – averaging 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings – he developed elbow trouble, went on the IL, and didn’t appear in a game for St. Louis after May 19. His numbers at Triple A Memphis were terrible.

The Cardinals waived Roberston and he was claimed by the Angels. He has a 9.00 ERA for their Triple affiliate in 10 innings. The other pitcher the Cardinals received from Boston – right-hander Victor Santos – has a 5.76 ERA in 75 innings at Triple A Memphis. He’s been awful as a starter and just OK as a reliever. But Santos is only 24, and his career has been sidetracked by injuries. I suppose there’s a chance Santos can develop into something.

For now we can say the Cardinals gave O’Neill away. And the truth is, there wasn’t much of a market for his services. Not with his injury history. Not with pending free agency after this season. And not after he batted .229 with a mediocre .397 slugging percentage for the Cardinals across his final two seasons here.

Entering his walk year, I assume O’Neill was fired up by his agent Scott Boras – and is highly motivated to play often and show that he can be an exciting power source. The Cardinals only saw that from O’Neill for one season. And I don’t believe O’Neill would have powered up like this had the Cardinals kept him for 2024.

JUAN YEPEZ

I’m still not sure why the Cardinals declined to offer Yepez a contract after the 2023 season. I didn’t make a fuss over it at the time, but when we look at what he’s done for the Washington Nationals, I think it’s fair to reexamine the Cardinals’ decision.

As a rookie in 2022, Yepez gave the team a boost early in the season after being promoted to the majors for the first time. He slugged .447 for the 2022 Cardinals and drilled 12 homers and 13 doubles in 250 at-bats. He came off the bench to blast a two-run, pinch homer against the Phillies to give the Cardinals a late 2-0 lead in Game 1 of the wild-series. The Redbirds blew the lead in the ninth and were swept in two games.

Granted, 2023 was a bad season for Yepez. He didn’t do much at Memphis, hitting only nine homers and slugging a mediocre .414 in 384 plate appearances. And he did next to nothing in 28 games for the 2023 Cardinals. And we know that Yepez is weak defensively, but the Nationals had the luxury of parking Yepez at first base and keeping them there – letting him play and play in a low-pressure rebuilding year.

In 50 games since Washington promoted Yepez from Triple A in early July, Yepez has hit .287 with a .340 OBP and .448 slug. His OPS+ translates into an offensive performance that’s 24 percent above league average. And his right-handed swing has slobbered left-handed pitching for a .475 slug and .828 OPS. Did you know that the 2024 Cardinals are feeble vs. lefty pitchers?

Again, I generally understand why the Cardinals set Yepez free. But something about this is disturbing. It fit the abnormal pattern: young hitter does a great job, sparks excitement, makes a positive impression, even comes up big in the postseason, sinks into a slump … and no one within the St. Louis baseball structure knew how to get Yepez back on track. He had to go to a new home and work for different baseball people to inflate his career. The Cardinals just let him go. This keeps happening and it’s crazy.

DYLAN CARLSON

Well, after a hot start with Tampa Bay, Carlson has faded into the St. Louis version of himself.

— First 13 games for the Rays: .316 average, .409 OBP, .579 slug, .988 OPS, three home runs, nine RBIs.

— Last 15 games for the Rays through Wednesday: .135 average, .211 OBP, .154 slug, .306 OPS and a whopping 35 percent strikeout rate.

The Cardinals received an OK reliever (Shawn Armstrong) in the trade for Carlson. Armstrong pitched well for the Cards, posting a 2.84 ERA in 11 appearances. But the front office designated Armstrong for assignment, and he signed on with the Cubs to serve as a lower-leverage reliever. He’ll be a free agent after the season. He wouldn’t have returned here for 2025, but I don’t know how much that mattered. That Cardinal front office is a curious bunch.

THE DISTANT PAST

We’ve all replayed and reviewed the Randy Arozarena trade/mistake a million times. And yes, their decision to designate Adolis Garcia for assignment in December of 2019 to open a 40-man roster spot for pitcher Kwang Hyun Kim has been cited endlessly.

There’s no defending the Arozarena trade that brought highly regarded Tampa Bay pitching prospect Matthew Liberatore to St. Louis. And that remains true even though (A) Arozarena’s career had leveled off to an extent, prompting Tampa Bay to trade him to Seattle this season, and (B) Liberatore has emerged as a strong asset in the 2024 Cardinal bullpen. And Libby is still young.

As for Garcia, never mind that the Texas Rangers – who added him after the Cardinals let him go – later designated Garcia for assignment early in 2021 to clear 40-man roster space for pitcher Mike Foltynewicz. (The pitcher went 2-12 with a 5.44 ERA for the ‘21 Rangers.)

At that point all 29 other teams — including St. Louis — took a pass as Garcia cleared waivers. Concerned over outfielder injuries, the Rangers had Garcia to rejoin them in 2021 spring training as a non-roster invitee. It worked out well for the Rangers, who got a second chance with Garcia. It paid off.

Garcia peaked with his All-Star season in 2023, banging 39 homers and driving in 107 runs during the regular season. He was phenomenal in the Rangers’ drive to the 2023 World Series championship, slamming eight homers, driving in 22 runs, and slugging .726 in 15 postseason games. (Garcia has struggled in 2024, but that’s beside the point.)

It was kind of unsettling for Cardinals fans to see Garcia and Arozarena start in the outfield for the American League team in the 2023 All-Star game.

Lane Thomas has been mentioned as a member of the club – players the Cardinals gave up on – but this was a different case. After hitting .104 in 28 early-season games for the 2021 Cardinals, the injury-prone outfielder was having a solid season at Triple A Memphis when the Cardinals flipped him at the trade deadline. They sent Thomas to Washington for the respected veteran starter Jon Lester.

The Cardinals were desperate for starting pitching, Lester definitely helped, and his presence was a positive factor in the team securing a wild-card playoff spot. Lester’s early starts as a Cardinal were mostly bad, but over a seven-start stretch that began Aug. 25 he pitched to a 2.66 ERA and the Redbirds won five of the seven games. It was a good trade for Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak.

Who will be the next Cardinals’ hitter to tap into their full potential after leaving St. Louis? I’m not sure, but I’d probably put down a few quid on Lars Nootbaar.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing. Here’s the link: @TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: It’s Happening Again To The Cardinals. Tommy Edman Is An Instant Smash Hit For The Dodgers. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

I have something to look forward to, and I think I speak for many of you.

Here goes: there are only 18 more games to go on the schedule, and then we are free. We will not have to watch this appallingly inferior St. Louis Cardinals offense malfunction again. Not until 2025.

What we’ve seen through the first 144 games in 2024 is arguably a bottom-three offense for the Cardinals since Bill DeWitt Jr. became franchise chairman-owner before the 1996 season.

This is the 29th season of Cardinal baseball since Anheuser-Busch sold the club to DeWitt and partners. Here’s where the 2024 Cardinals rank in various offensive categories among the 29 STL teams:

27th in runs per game, 4.1

26th in batting average, .247

29th in onbase percentage, .310

27th in slugging percentage, .388

27th in OPS, .699

28th in walk rate, 7.7%

24th in strikeout rate, 21.7%

29th in walk-strikeout ratio, 0.35

21st in Isolated Power

18th in home runs per game, 1.02

And then there’s the abject futility at the plate with runners in scoring position. The Cardinals went 0 for 6 with RISP Tuesday in a godawful 3-0 loss to the Reds, and that dropped their season RISP average to .229. If that holds, it would be the worst RISP average by a Cardinals team since the 1966 offense hit .232 in these situations.

Over the last seven games, the Cardinals have averaged 2.9 runs and batted .188. That includes a .143 batting average and 28 percent strikeout rate with runners in position to score. And this no-show offense has scratched for seven runs (total) in losing three of the last four games.

This season the Redbirds’ .229 average with RISP is last among the 15 NL teams. And they’re the NL’s lousiest RISP offense in slugging (.341) and home runs (25). It’s just pathetic.

And I’m hardly gleaming with optimism over the potential shape of the offense in 2025.

Though they lost 91 games last year in their worst full-season showing since 1990, the primary root cause was atrocious starting pitching. I’m not claiming that the 2023 Cardinals had a muscular offense, but it wasn’t as helpless as what we’ve seen this season.

The 2023 Cardinals ranked 19th among 30 teams in average runs per game; the ’24 team ranks 27th.

The 2023 Cardinals ranked 14th in slugging; the ‘24 team is 27th in slugging.

And so on …

After their washout in 2023, the Cardinals essentially ran back the same offense for 2024. The only outside additions from 2023 were bench pieces Matt Carpenter and Brandon Crawford. There were no important upgrades. And of course, the ‘24 offense sacked out and snoozed. Relative to the rest of the league, the same core of St. Louis hitters suffered a significant drop in production and metrics.

So why would we think the 2025 Cardinals would rise up and turn into the 2000 Cards, who were the highest-scoring team in the DeWitt years at 5.47 runs per game? Or for that matter – if the Cardinals stay with the same hitters — why would we expect an offense that’s merely average or slightly better?

Even if Paul Goldschmidt is back for another season in 2025, he won’t be younger or better. The same applies to Nolan Arenado, who turns 34 early next season.

We can’t assume that Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker will leave their 2024 failures behind and perform like stars in 2025. That is unlikely. We can’t expect Alec Burleson to hit for good power all season, because he’s been fading offensively in the late stages of 2024. Lars Nootbaar can’t avoid injuries and his stats have declined for the second year in a row. Brendan Donovan has gradually leveled off since an impressive rookie showing in 2022.

We don’t know who the Cardinals will go with in center field next season, but their overall offense from the CF position this season is anemic, generating only four home runs and a .299 slugging percentage.

I’m confident that Willson Contreras will hit well in 2025. I’m confident that rookie shortstop Masyn Winn will build on his positives of ‘24 and become even more effective offensively in 2025. Other than that – sorry, I don’t have any legitimate reason to feel confident.

And I don’t want to hear about prospects. Sure, there are a couple of hitters to keep an eye on – J.J. Wetherholt, Chase Davis and Thomas Saggese – but for 2025 they’re more of a “we’ll see” thing instead of a sure thing.

My gosh. It isn’t fair to compare the current cast of St. Louis hitters to the glory-days names. Not including current roster members Goldschmidt and Arenado, the Cardinals had 21 different position players chosen for the NL All-Star team from 1996 through 2022.

That includes a combined 43 All-Star selections (as a Cardinal) for Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina, Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen, Matt Holliday, Mark McGwire, Edgar Renteria, Matt Carpenter, David Eckstein and Carlos Beltran. That’s pretty damn amazing.

Who are the future Cardinal All-Stars? In the coming years, who are the guys that will earn two, three, or more All-Star honors? That’s a question for the Cardinals.

ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT: With 18 games remaining, the Cardinals are back to .500 at 72-72 … if the Cardinals finish .500, the winning percentage would rank 25th on the list of 29 seasons under DeWitt’s ownership. The 2023 Cardinals had a .438 winning percentage that was the team’s worst in a season during the DeWitt Era … an alarming trend that shows reaffirms the collapse of the Cardinals: since the start of last season, they are 42-56 (.428) against fellow NL Central teams

STATE OF THE RACE: There is no race. The Cardinals are 6 and ½ games away from the third wild-card pass, with three better teams ahead of them for the No. 3 spot. Fangraphs gives St. Louis a 0.2 percent shot of making the postseason.

HOMEWRECKERS: The Cardinals are 72-81 at Busch Stadium over the last two seasons for a home winning percentage (.471) that ranks tied for 24th overall and is 13th in the National League. The only NL teams that have been worse at home than the Cardinals since the start of 2023 are Colorado (.460) and Washington (.437). Over the last two seasons the Cardinals have been outscored 747-676 at Busch for a run differential of minus 71.

HOMEWRECKERS II: How poorly have the Cardinals failed in protecting their home–field advantage over the last two years? Well, the current Busch Stadium opened in 2006. And from 2006 through 2022, the Cardinals had a .589 home winning percentage that was third best in the majors behind the Yankees (.625) and Dodgers (.617). Sad. And yet: the Cardinals ranked 4th in MLB for tickets sold at home in 2023. And despite another disappointing campaign in 2024, only six MLB teams have sold more tickets to home games than St. Louis this season.

MORE ON THE RISP FAMINE: In Tuesday’s shutout loss the Cardinals were an abominable 0 for 6 with runners in scoring position – and all six at-bats ended in strikeouts. Arenado was 0 for 2. Carpenter, Nootbaar, Saggese and Walker were each 0 for 1.

The Cardinals loaded the bases in the ninth with no one out … only to have Walker (looking), Saggese (swinging) and Carpenter (swinging) strike out.

I wrote about this a while back, but my research identified one obvious problem for this team when having a chance to get something done in RISP scenarios.

St. Louis batters take too many called strikes and swing at too many balls out of the strike zone.

It happened again Tuesday. In their failure to deliver a run despite having six RISP opportunities, Cardinal hitters took eight swings at 19 out-of-zone pitches for a chase rate of 42 percent. And on 14 pitches in the strike zone with RISP, the Cardinals took six called strikes.

ANDRE PALLANTE: He appears to be in a September downturn. Walks were a problem in Tuesday’s start against the Reds. Walks were a problem in last week’s start at Milwaukee. In his last two starts Pallante has given up eight runs in 10 innings for a 7.20 ERA. In the two games opponents batted .282 with a .429 onbase percentage and .462 slug. Ugly. This is probably inevitable when a starting pitcher has a 20.4 percent walk rate over two consecutive starts. That’s Pallante. In his last two assignments he had more walks (10) than strikeouts (9.) And he was clubbed for two home runs when pitching with runners in scoring position.

BURLESON’S SLUMP, THE FORENSICS: He went 0-4 and grounded into a double play in Tuesday’s loss to the Reds. Burly is 3 for 28 (.109) with one RBI in September, hasn’t homered since Aug. 17, and has batted .224 with a dim .304 slug since July 22.

So what’s been going on? How are pitchers making easy work of Burleson? First of all, Burly is getting down in the count and hasn’t found his way out of it.

Since July 22, he’s 7 for 51 (.137) with an uncharacteristic 25 percent strikeout rate when pitchers are ahead in the count.

That’s a big problem. Because when Burleson connected when he’s ahead in the count, he’s 11 for 37 (.297) with four doubles, two homers and a .568 slug.

Next: Burleson’s batting averages against specific pitches, on all counts, since his struggles began on July 22 …

– Four-seam fastball, .217
– Changeup, .211
– Sweeper, .222
– Curve, .111
– Slider, .045.

Burleson has been attacked with sliders more than any other pitch, and obviously it’s working for the pitchers.

ARENADO UPDATE: In his last 18 games the third baseman has one homer and a whispery .314 slugging percentage. And 14 of his 17 hits have been singles. Arenado has the most singles (104) by a Cardinal this season. And his 104 singles are ninth highest among MLB hitters in 2024.

LUKEN BAKER & VICTOR SCOTT: Let’s update a note I had yesterday. With the STL offense in hibernation, Baker has been given only three plate appearances in the team’s last seven games. And the Cardinals sure were smart in demoting Scott to Triple A Memphis. That will teach the rookie to get hits and amp up the power and all of that stuff. In his final 11 games before getting benched and then demoted, Scott had a dandy slash line of .297/.350/.487. I guess that wasn’t good enough to impress Oli Marmol and John Mozeliak. The Cardinals are OVERFLOWING with offense.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing. Here’s the link: @TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: Once Upon A Time, The St. Louis Cardinals Had An Offense. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

Greetings.

In the latest Review, I’ll be addressing a range of topics that include Michael Siani, Paul Goldschmidt, Matthew Liberatore, Steven Matz, Sonny Gray, and more.

ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT: The Cardinals outlasted the Brewers for a 7-4 victory in 12 innings Tuesday. The Cards have won five of their last seven games and are 9-5 since Aug. 21. All nine wins have come against teams that rank in the top 10 of MLB in winning percentage.

Despite the recent success, the Redbirds can’t gain traction in the competition for the No. 3 wild-card spot. They are sitting 5 and ½ games out with only 23 to play, and three teams (Braves, Mets and Cubs) stand in front of STL in the bidding for the third wild card. FanGraphs gives St. Louis a teensy 1 percent chance of making the playoffs.

PADDLING IN PLACE: The Cardinals (70-69) are trying to keep their heads above water, pumping their legs pumping furiously to avoid sinking. There’s been a normalcy to the pattern. Since July 26, a span of 37 contests, the Redbirds’ record has ranged from three games above .500 to three games below .500. No better, no worse. The water wings aren’t getting them anywhere. The bottom line is a 17-20 record since July 26. And over this stretch the Cardinals have gone from having a 33 percent shot at qualifying for the postseason to their present predicament of one percent.

THE MICHAEL SIANI SHOW: It’s a joy to watch the center fielder play ball, and do so many things to alter the competition. Defense, baserunning, improving offense, and an opportunistic heads-up style of play that provides entertainment. Siani showcased it all in Tuesday’s hard-earned win.

– In the 11th, Siani nearly made a circus catch that he had no business making but the ball escaped his glove after his dive attempt. It went for a double and the Brewers tied the game 4-4-. I can’t fault Siani for the ball coming loose as he tumbled to the ground in an aggressive attempt to secure the game-winning out. Not many center fielders would have gotten close enough to make a grab like that. And no, I’m not exaggerating. According to Statcast, the catch probability on that play was only 10 percent.

– Siani more than made up for the hard luck on the catch attempt with a winning flurry of actions in the top of the 12.

– He used a fake bunt to distract Milwaukee reliever Elvis Peguero into a wild pitch, and the act of deception put two teammates in scoring position.

– From there, Siani drove in two runs with an opposite field single to left. The Cardinals seized a 6-4 lead thanks to Siani’s game-winning RBIs.

– Siani wasn’t done. He stole second base, advanced to third on an error (a rushed throw) by Brewers catcher William Contreras, and scored on Alec Burleson’s sac fly to make it 7-4.

Siani’s season was interrupted by an oblique strain that put him on the IL for a month. But nothing has changed with Siani since he returned Monday in Milwaukee.

In 16 games since the All-Star break – with the injury in between – Siani is batting .362 with a .423 onbase percentage and .806 OPS. Despite the injury time off, Siani ranks fourth among MLB center fielders with 13 outs above average.

Add all of this up, and the Cardinals are 44-36 when Siani starts a game this season. The Cards are a dull team. But there is nothing dull about Siani.

BEHOLD PAUL GOLDSCHMIDT: Another vintage performance by the golden-oldie Goldy. He contributed to Tuesday’s triumph in a variety of ways: a double and a homer, three hits and three RBIs, drew a walk, swiped a base and reached base five times. Goldschmidt – who turns 37 next week – isn’t acting his age.

After three poor months to open the season, Goldschmidt’s more recent form is reminiscent of his glory-days past.

– Since the beginning of July, the first baseman is batting .282 with a .510 slugging percentage and .831 OPS.

– He’s hit .310 and slugged .566 since July 26. He’s hit .350 and slugged .625 since Aug. 9.

– In August-September combined, Goldy is hitting .302 with a .547 slug and .904 OPS. His park-and-league adjusted runs created (wRC+) puts him at 48 percent above league average over that time. His strikeout rate since the beginning of August is 21.6%.

– Since the opening of August, Goldschmidt has delivered an extra-base hit every 6.6 at-bats. In his first three months of 2024, he had an extra-base hit every 15 at-bats.

– Goldschmidt has steadily lowered his strikeout rate. It was 29 percent at the end of June but has been 24% since the start of July.

– Compared to where his numbers were at the end of June, Goldschmidt has raised his batting average by 57 points, his onbase percentage by 27 points, his slugging percentage by 149 points, his OPS by 176 points, and his wRC+ by 44 percent.

– If we just include Goldy’s plate appearances when used as a first baseman, he’s 37 percent above league average offensively since Aug. 1. That’s the best wRC+ by a National League first baseman over that time; Freddie Freeman is second best with a 135 wRC+.

Goldschmidt’s contract expires at the end of the season and he’s giving the Cardinals a lot to think about.

STEVEN MATZ CAME BACK: I’ll be polite and call Tuesday’s start a mixed-bag takeaway. He struck out seven of 18 batters faced for an impressive strikeout rate of 38.8 percent. But in his first major-league assignment since April 30, the lefty also yielded two homers and was charged with three earned runs in 4 and ⅔ innings. One of the runs levied against him came after he left the mood. With an inherited runner on second base, Cards reliever Ryan Fernandez gave up a double to Jackson Chourio to give Milwaukee a 3-2 lead.

Matz had a 5.87 ERA in this game. That wasn’t much better than his 6.18 ERA over his first five starts of the season. In 33 starts during his time as a Cardinal, Matz has pitched to a 4.88 ERA.

In his first three seasons as a Cardinal, Matz has pitched only 185 and ⅓ innings and missed 283 in-season days due to injury.

His four-year, $44 million contract runs through the end of 2025.

NASTY STUFF FROM THE STL BULLPEN: The crew was outstanding in Tuesday’s 12-inning brawl. The Cards used five relievers in this order: Ryan Fernandez, JoJo Romero, Andrew Kittredge, Matthew Liberatore, and Ryan Helsley. The five arms covered 7 and ⅓ innings without giving up an earned run. The only run that scored was the “ghost” man from second base in the 11th inning, and that doesn’t count as an earned run against a pitcher.

The Brewers went 2 for 23 (.089) with two walks, a hit batter and a sac bunt. Ten of Milwaukee’s 27 plate appearances vs. the Redbird relievers ended in strikeouts. That’s a wicked strikeout rate of 37.7 percent.

IN APPRECIATION OF MATTHEW LIBERATORE: The tall lefty warrants special recognition. Liberatore was the victim of horrendous batted-ball luck Sunday at Yankee Stadium when four earned runs were attached to his pitching line. I won’t go into the full play by play, but Liberatore gave up five hits, all singles. There were four ground-ball singles, and two never left the infield. Another single was a fly that dropped between center fielder Victor Scott and right fielder Jordan Walker. (It should have been caught.) The only real bullet came on a line-drive single by Aaron Judge.

Didn’t matter; Liberatore’s performance went into the logbook as five hits and four earned runs in just 0.2 innings. I’m just saying that he deserved a better fate.

Liberatore has made 15 relief appearances since the beginning of August. Even with the unfortunate turn of events at Yankee Stadium, Liberatore has a 2.25 ERA and has been touched for a .211 average and .468 OPS.

In his 14 relief appearances since the start of August minus New York, Liberatore has an 0.47 ERA in 19 and ⅓ innings. In the 14 calls, he’s struck out 33.3 percent of batters faced and limited opponents to a .123 average. Liberatore pitched to 42 right-handed hitters in the 14 games, and they batted .139 against him with a 31 percent strikeout rate. Can’t do much better than that.

The Cardinals wouldn’t have prevailed Tuesday without two scoreless innings from Liberatore in the ninth and the 10th.

LARS NOOTBAAR, HEATING: He went 2 for 5 Tuesday, and is batting .319 with a .511 slugging percentage in his last 12 games.

NOT EASY TO SCORE 7 RUNS WHEN: Your hitters strike out 13 times, walk twice, and leave eight runners on. And not easy to pull this off when your top four lineup spots have 2 hits in 21 at-bats with seven strikeouts. (Masyn Winn, Burleson, Nolan Arenado and Brendan Donovan.) At least Burly had a walk and brought in a run with that sac fly.

THE ROAD ADVENTURES OF SONNY GRAY: His weird season continues with Wednesday’s start at Milwaukee. Before this season, Gray had a career road ERA of 3.21 in 133 starts. In them, he allowed a .336 slugging percentage and a stingy rate of 0.7 home runs per nine innings. And Gray had never been struck for more than nine road homers in a season.

But in his first year as a Cardinal, Gray has been car-bombed on the road: 11 starts, 5.62 ERA, an opponent .528 slugging percentage and a sky-high average of 2.2 home runs per nine innings.

CONSIDER THIS REVEALING GRAY STAT: Gray has allowed 16 road homers in 65 and ⅔ innings this season. In his four previous seasons before joining the Cardinals, Gray was hit for only 15 home runs in 228 and ⅔ innings. Go figure.

WHY DOES THIS HAPPEN TO GRAY? Expect the Brewers to be aggressive and swing early in the count against Gray. I dug up the numbers to put a light on the problem:

= On the road, Gray has allowed four first-pitch homers, six second-pitch homers, and two third-pitch blasts. That accounts for 12 of the 16 home runs swatted against him. All cranked in the first three pitches of an at-bat.

= Gray is predictable in what he chooses to throw early in those counts. He’s been walloped for five road home runs on four-seam fastballs that came on the first or second pitch. He’s been pounded for four home runs on sinkers that came on the first, second or third pitch.

Overall, based on pitch selection, here’s a breakdown of the 16 road home runs surrendered by Gray:

• six four-seam fastballs
• six sinkers
• two cutters
• one changeup
• one sweeper

Unless pitching Cards coach Dusty Blake and Gray deem it necessary to change these blatantly predictable patterns – especially early in counts – the Brewers could have a tee party. As in teeing off. But if the Cardinals smarten up and change the pitch patterns, Gray could catch the Crew off balance.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing. Here’s the link: @TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: The Siani Show, Goldy Turns Back The Clock, Nasty Bullpen, And Sonny Gray’s Road Irregularities. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

After getting socked and bopped 9-3 by the Brewers on Monday, the Cardinals now have a 1.0 percent chance to qualify for the postseason.

The Cards are 5 and ½ games out of the third wild-card spot with three teams ahead of them and only 24 games left to play.

Listen, I’m not wasting your time by talking about STL’s playoff hopes. The only reason I mentioned the playoff odds and the standings math is to set up what comes in this little ol’ writing exercise.

The Cardinals (69-69) can continue to believe in the fantasy of playing postseason baseball. They can continue to preach about competing hard until the end. They can continue to spit the usual cliches about how they’re not out of the race until they’re officially eliminated and yada, yada, yada.

That’s all fine with me. If the fellers successfully weave a dream and manufacture a 1964 miracle to make a landing into playoffs, I shall be humbled.

Now that the Cardinals are into September, I’ll serve up another quote from spoken-word artist Henry Rollins: “We know that in September, we will wander through the warm winds of summer’s wreckage. We will welcome summer’s ghost.”

Sounds about right. And Rollins ain’t even a Cardinals fan.

Anyhow …

Here’s what interests me the most about the Cardinals’ closing stretch of 2024. These aren’t rankings based on importance. I’m just randomly going through them. Let’s go with nine:

1. Goldy gone? The proud and highly professional first baseman, Paul Goldschmidt, turns 37 a week from today. This season he has career lows in batting average, onbase percentage, slugging percentage and wRC+. His St. Louis contract expires after the season. I anticipate that the Cardinals will move on – but will they? Goldschmidt’s metrics are strong. He ranks among the top eight percent of major-league hitters in hard-hit rate, and is in the top 16 percent in average exit velocity, and the top 30 percent in barrel rate.

Based on the quality of his contact, Goldschmidt’s slugging percentage should be .446. There’s still voltage in that bat. His deteriorating plate discipline is a significant factor in his reduced numbers. In short, Goldy takes too many called strikes, and hacks at too many pitches. That’s caused his strikeout rate to soar, and his walk rate to deflate, and leaves him with a sad little .288 onbase percentage.

If Cardinals management is still undecided on what to do after the season – to bring him back for 2025 on a one-year deal, for example – could their decision be influenced by his recent hitting surge? In his last 21 games, Goldschmidt has a .329 average, .377 OBP and .557 slug. Of course, Goldy may have his own ideas about where he would like to play in 2025. And he should have a few choices.

2. Is there a platoon in the future? Back to first base. I don’t know what the Cardinals will choose to do if they part ways with Goldschmidt. How could anyone know until we see what ownership plans to do about overhauling the front office operation? But if they stay in house, the makings of a platoon are in place. Alec Burleson plays solid first-base defense. Batting from the left side, Burly is hitting .305 with a .506 slugging percentage and 18 homers against right-handed pitchers. But the big man is terrible against left-handed pitching.

That’s where Luken Baker possibly fits in. He has a power-packed right-handed swing, has an outstanding walk rate, and is violent in his damage against lefty pitchers. This season at Triple A Memphis, Baker slugged .736 against lefthanders and had a .407 OBP.

Small sample and all of that, but since being promoted to the big club, Baker is 2 for 5 against lefties, and both hits were home runs. He’s walked three times. (Always getting on base.) At Memphis he had a walk rate of around 17 percent vs. LHP, and that’s exceptional. If the Cardinals want to test drive this platoon, this is the month. Goldschmidt can take most of his at-bats at DH.

Jordan Walker could enter the discussion in the near future (2025.) If the Cardinals decide to take a look at him as a first baseman next season. But he’s never played the position. And we saw what happened when the Cardinals decided to use Walker at the unfamiliar position in right field. Is it smart to put him in another uncomfortable position? Playing first base isn’t easy.

3. What’s up in center field? For now, it’s Victor Scott or Michael Siani. Manager Oli Marmol covets Siani’s excellent range and all-around excellence in center field. That’s understandable. Despite missing a month with an oblique strain, Siani still ranks third among MLB center fielders in Outs Above Average. His range is fantastic; Statcast rates him above average in every direction a ball is hit. Shallow or deep, left or right … you don’t get much by him. And before his injury, Siani was batting .400 with a robust .880 OPS in 14 games since the All-Star break. And we can go back in time and note Siani’s .313 average and .352 onbase percentage in his last 42 games. The other thing about Siani? The Cardinals have a record of 43-36 when he starts in center.

In a more ideal set-up, Siani (who bats left) would be paired with a good center fielder who bats from the right side. That isn’t on the table, and Scott swings left-handed. The rookie has improved offensively and has a .290 average and a .815 OPS in his last 12 games.

Scott has a future in center field but needs to make better jumps when tracking balls in the air. He makes too many first-step, wrong-step reactions. But coach Willie McGee will fix that. Scott couldn’t ask for a more astute outfield coach than McGee.

Speaking of McGee … think about all of the superb center fielders the Cardinals have deployed through the decades Terry Moore in the 1940s, Wally Moon in the 1950s, Curt Flood in the 1960s, Bake McBride in the 1970s, McGee in the 1980s, Ray Lankford in the 1990s, and Jim Edmonds in the aughts.

That center-field position has evolved into a jumble. Since the start of the 2022 season, the Cardinals have used seven players that made at least 145 plate appearances as center fielders. Roll call: Harrison Bader, Dylan Carlson, Lars Nootbaar, Tyler O’Neill, Tommy Edman, Siani, and Scott.

(Side note: It sure was fun to watch Rick Ankiel play center. And much respect to Jon Jay.)

4. Nolan Gorman: Will the Cardinals bring him back? Gorman struck out three times in his first game for Triple A Memphis after being demoted. But in his last eight games, Gorman has a .516 slugging percentage, .830 OPS, two doubles, two homers and six RBIs.

The good news, so far: Gorman has a strikeout rate of only 14 percent in his last eight games. During his stay in Memphis, the left-handed slugger is still taking too many called strikes – but I attribute that to Gorman trying to settle down instead of jumping at everything.

Here’s an indication of progress: this season with the Cardinals, Gorman swung at 30 percent of the pitches thrown out of the strike zone. In the early days of his minor-league hitting rehabilitation, Gorman has swung at 20 percent of the pitches out of the strike zone. He’s being more selective.

And when Gorman swings at a strike and puts the ball in play, Gorman is batting .286 with a .571 slug for Memphis.

5. What will become of Andre Pallante? Even though the right-hander had a dud of a start Monday at Milwaukee, it appears that he will stay in the rotation. And that’s the obvious decision. Pallante moved into the rotation on May 29 and has the team’s finest starter ERA (3.80) over that time. And Pallante has pitched to a 3.48 ERA in his last 11 starts.

I still don’t trust the Cardinals here. Steven Matz is back from the IL and is starting Tuesday’s game against the Brewers. Lance Lynn will likely return from the IL next week, and at that point the Cardinals will have seven starters: Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, Erick Fedde, Kyle Gibson, Pallante, Matz and Lynn. Matz can be stashed in the bullpen, but what if he pitches well in Milwaukee? Would Lynn go to the bullpen instead?

Even if the Cardinals relocate one of the veterans in the bullpen – and I doubt they’d do that with Lynn – they’d still have six starters. Maybe they’ll use six starters; with the zany Cardinals, who knows? Pallante has experience in the bullpen, and it’s easier for the Cardinals to put him there – no matter what they’re spinning to reporters right now.

It’s easy to say “drop Mikolas” from the rotation because of his awful ERA over the last two seasons. But the Cardinals won’t do that. Payroll politics always win out with this organization, and it doesn’t matter how poorly a dude pitches, he’ll keep his job because the Cardinals are paying him a lot of money.

Come to think of it, if the Cardinals bring back Mikolas and Matz for the final year of both of their contracts, they team will pay them a guaranteed $29.5 million combined in 2025.

6. Is there logic in starting Matz? Well, maybe so. If he pitches well down the stretch and avoids injury (good luck), there could be some trade interest in the lefty as a one-year gamble for 2025. Then again, Matz could hurt something else, go back to the IL, and lower his trade value to … nothing.

7. Where does Michael McGreevy fit? Will the Cardinals promote the former first–round draft choice to take another look at him? McGreevy crafted a gem of a start in his major-league debut, on July 31, holding the Rangers to five hits, one walk and one run in seven excellent innings. His sterling performance was the highlight of a 10-1 victory.

This was a one-off start for McGreevy, but he’s continued to impress with a 2.83 ERA in five starts since returning to Memphis. You’d think the Cardinals would be motivated to give McGreevy another opportunity. After all, the Cards rank 26th in the majors with a 5.04 starting-pitching ERA since the start of July. But using McGreevy at the expense of an experienced veteran is not how the Cardinals handle these matters.

Nope. They’ll stick with a collection of mediocre starters instead of showing confidence in a dude they liked so much they drafted 18th overall in 2021 – choosing McGreevy instead of others chosen later by other teams. That list includes Jackson Merrill (oh, dear), James Wood, Andrew Abbott, Mason Miller, Robert Gasser and Bryce Miller.

8. What about Quinn Mathews? Will the emerging phenom pitching prospect Quinn Mathews get a major-league showcase this month? Probably not. He began the year at the low Class A level and has graduated up the ladder to Triple A. He’s very impressive. But Mathews has made only one start for Memphis, and it does make sense to let him be. (I’ll also note the Cardinals didn’t feel that way about Michael Wacha in 2013.)

9. Ivan Herrera should catch more. This is not a slap at Pedro Pages, who is very good defensively. But it’s important for Herrera to get as much big-league experience as he can to polish his receiving skills. Herrera can hit; he’s batted .281 with a .343 OBP this season. And though his early-season power has dropped off, his .380 slug is not that far off from Nolan Arenado’s .394.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing. Here’s the link: @TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: Goldschmidt’s Future And Other Look-Ahead Matters Facing The Cardinals in September. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

The Cardinals are mystifying. They really are. After slogging to a miserable 5-12 record in their first 17 games of August to severely damage their wild-card chances, the Redbirds are suddenly stacking wins against some of the best teams in the majors.

The Cards 8-4 in their last 12 games. Their eight victories have been earned against the Brewers, Twins, Padres and Yankees. Let’s stretch this out a little. The Cardinals also had a win over the Dodgers on Aug. 17, so their last nine happy days at the ballpark have come against six opponents that all rank among the top 10 in MLB in winning percentage.

During this turnabout, the Cardinals have grinded to series wins over the Brewers, Twins and Yankees. They also fought for an honorable split of the four-game set with the Padres after losing the first two.

“They’re not going to give in,” manager Oliver Marmol told Derrick Goold and other reporters at Yankee Stadium after Sunday’s 14-run, 21-hit eruption to escape from the Bronx after capturing the series. “This was an important series, no different than the last one we just played, no different than the last one, the last one and the one we’re about to play.

“They’re going to show up every day with one thing on their mind. It’s: How do we win today? And if it goes our way, great. And if it doesn’t, we show up the next day. How do we win today? And we’re going to do that all the way to the end. When you look at the style of play right now, it’s a good one.”

Hold on a minute.

I’m going to stick with my policy of praising the Cardinals when they perform well, and have success. So I’ve been impressed by this 8-4 run against Milwaukee, Minnesota, San Diego and New York. We’ve seen some really good stuff over the last 12 games, and I’ll get into that in a bit.

OK, so I’ve complimented the Cardinals for their recent positive outcomes. But where has this been?

Why did the Cardinals take so long to kick in, ignite the offense, take smarter at-bats, deliver a bunch of timely hits, and compete with full-on urgency? If the Redbirds are capable of handling a rugged tract of games with admirable workmanship and professionalism, I don’t understand the discouraging bog of losses in the first 2 and ½ weeks of August.

After acquiring starting pitcher Erick Fedde and outfielder Tommy Pham at the trade deadline, the Cardinals won two in a row over Texas, outscoring the Rangers 18-2 in the two beatdowns. That closed a 13-12 July, and the Cardinals looked like a team that had a charge left in them.

That sunny view faded from the horizon during the 7-12 August swoon. The two straight wins over Texas was an exception, but the downturn actually began on July 22. From that point through Aug. 18, the Cardinals lost 17 of 26 games.

As their 2024 season began to slip away, the Cardinals were slapped down to a 3-10 record against the Pirates, Nationals, Cubs and Reds. The Cardinals had a better record than all four opponents at the start of each series but fell apart.

After defeating the Braves on July 21 for a series victory, the Cardinals were 52-47 and via Fangraphs had a 47.6 percent chance of making the playoffs. All in all, they appeared to be in decent shape to stay in the race and emerge with a wild card in hand.

And then 9-17 happened in the next 26 games. After the collapse, their postseason probability was down to 2.1 percent. I’ll repeat this: after losing so many games to teams that had a lower winning percentage than they did at the time, the Cardinals’ possibility of reaching the postseason went from 47.6% to 2.1%. That’s a horrendous drop of 45.5 percent. And they have themselves to blame for this dreadful reduction in the postseason odds.

We saw this type of thing earlier in the season. The Cardinals went 5-1 in consecutive series against Boston and Baltimore. Next, they lost two straight series to Houston and Philadelphia, but played those two teams tough and were 7-5 over the 12 games. We watched the Cardinals win two series from the Braves. And so on.

The Cards seem to have an extra spark when playing good teams. Though they have a losing record (39-44) vs. winning opponents this season, their .469 win percentage in those games is the 13th best in the majors. And while the Cards’ winning percentage (.555) against losing teams might look good to you – it isn’t. That .555 vs. losing sides ranks 23rd in the majors.

So relative to the quality of the opponent, the Cardinals have actually done better against winning teams than losing teams in the major-league rankings.

That’s unacceptable.

The Cardinals deserve an attaboy for knocking down good teams over the last 12 games. But that 8-4 mark hasn’t enhanced their postseason hopes. As the Cardinals go into the three-game series at Milwaukee, they’re still five games out of the third wild card slot. And their postseason probability is a puny 1.7 percent according to Fangraphs, and 1.2% via Baseball Prospectus.

The Cards have only 25 games to work with on the remaining schedule. This enigmatic ballclub is in a dire situation because of the failure to forcefully take care of business against the more beatable teams. Sad.

THE BEST PART ABOUT 8-4: In taking eight of the last 12 games the Cardinals have been led offensively by their younger hitters, and that’s what the team and the fans want to see.

I’m referring to eight hitters: Masyn Winn, Jordan Walker, Lars Nootbaar, Victor Scott, Alec Burleson, Luken Baker, Brendan Donovan and Ivan Herrera.

In the 12 games the eight hitters have combined for a .299 average with positive numbers in onbase percentage and slugging. Seven of the eight hitters have performed 18 percent above league average offensively or higher based on park and league adjusted runs created (wRC+).

During the 8-4 gallop these eight hitters have: hit eight of the team’s 11 home runs, have 29 of the 41 extra-base hits, scored 45 of the 62 runs, and delivered 40 of the 59 RBIs.

In addition, the group of eight have excelled when hitting with runners in scoring position over the past eight games – collectively batting .305 with four homers, 35 RBIs and 40 runs scored in only 82 at-bats.

WALKER AWAKENING: Kudos to Jordan Walker for his Sunday spree that featured five hits, three RBIs, his first big-league home run in 2024, and his first stolen base. Nice day! Here’s a terrific note from Hall of Fame baseball writer Rob Rains: Walker became the first Cardinal to have a five-hit day since Stan Musial on July 21, 1943. The Man was also 22 years old when he did it.

LUKEN SKY WALKER: During the 8-4 stretch the big’un has only batted .167 but there’s a lot more to it than that. Baker has an amazing walk rate of 27 percent over this time, giving him a .385 onbase percentage (and .556 slug) since Aug. 21. In addition Baker has two homers and seven RBIs in eight at-bats with runners in scoring position. Well done, sir.

IS NOOT LOCKED IN? It’s too soon to know for sure, but it’s looking that way. During STL’s 8-4 run Nootbaar leads the Cardinals with 10 RBIs, has six extra-base hits and is slugging .468. Nootbaar’s three-run double in the seventh inning broke a 7-7 tie and lifted the Cardinals to a 10-7 lead. He also lofted a two-run homer in the ninth for a five-RBI afternoon. So a lot of Noot’s damage in the last 12 games came Sunday at Yankee Stadium, but the Cardinals will take it. They’re a better offense when Nootbaar is in form offensively.

By the way: Walker and Nootbaar collectively went 8 for 10 with two HRs and eight runs knocked in during Sunday’s conquest of the Yankees.

IT’S ALL ABOUT THE RISP: The subject has been beaten to a pulp this season – and for good reason, because the Cardinals certainly have cost themselves several wins (at least) with their chronic failures to come up big with runners in scoring position. Here’s an illustration of how the RISP fortunes – good or bad – impact the Cardinals.

RISP, during the 5-12 start to August: 18 hits in 119 at-bats, .151 average, four extra-base hits (no homers), a .424 OPS, five ground-ball double plays. The Cardinals averaged 3.3 runs over the 17 games.

RISP, during the 8-4 heat-up: 33 hits in 119 at-bats (.277) with 13 extra base hits (five homers), a .471 slug and .850 OPS. And only one double-play grounder. The Redbirds averaged 5.16 runs over the last 12 games.

PAUL GOLDSCHMIDT: NOT LOOKING OLD. In his last eight games the proud first baseman is 16 for 30 (.533) with six doubles, a homer and .833 slugging percentage.

NOLAN ARENADO’S CLUTCHINESS: The third baseman has done his part to help the Cardinals win eight of the last 12 by batting .308 with seven RBIs when stepping up with runners in scoring position.

THREE NOTES ON ST. LOUIS PITCHING

1. The Cardinals have a 4.08 starting-pitcher ERA during the 8-4 streak. That includes a 2.13 ERA in two starts by Andre Pallante, who pitches Monday’s opener at Milwaukee. The starters have had some poor batted-ball luck over the last 12 games – as reflected by their 3.88 fielding independent ERA over that span.

2. The Cardinals bullpen has gotten bopped around for a 4.19 ERA in the 8-4 stretch, with an 11 percent walk rate being a primary source of the problem. But Ryan Helsley has been very good during this 12-game period, playing a direct role in the team’s eight wins. Helsley hasn’t allowed a run in six innings, and he’s been credited with two wins and five saves.

Helsley leads the majors with 42 saves this season and his save success rate (93%) is tied for second in the majors among closers that have at least 30 save opportunities. With 25 games to go, Helsley has a shot at setting a new franchise record for most saves in a season.

Here’s the leaderboard:

– Trevor Rosenthal, 48 in 2015
– Jason Isringhausen, 47 in 2004
– Lee Smith, 47 in 1991
– Trevor Rosenthal, 45 in 2014
– Bruce Sutter, 45 in 1984
– Lee Smith, 43 in 1993
– Lee Smith, 43 in 1992
– Ryan Helsley, 42 in 2024
– Jason Motte, 42 in 2012

I have to say: Lee Smith rolling up 133 saves over three years for Cardinals teams that didn’t win more than 87 games in a campaign is pretty damn impressive.

3. During the 8-4 upturn the Cardinals were 6-0 when leading after seven innings, 5-0 when winning through eight innings, and went 1-0 in extra innings. For the season the Cards are 54-3 when leading through seven innings for a .947 winning percentage that ranks sixth overall and third in the National League. And when having a lead through eight innings, the Redbirds are 57-1 for a .983 winning percentage that’s No. 1 in the NL and tied for third overall. Even with some bumpy performances and an ERA that’s inflating, the St. Louis bullpen is on the short list of the MLB’s most reliable teams at defending late leads.

Thanks for taking the time to read this on Labor Day …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing. Here’s the link:

https://www.youtube.com/@TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: The Cardinals Are On A Roll And Beating Good Teams. Nice. But Why Did It Take So Long? appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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BIRD BYTES

I feel stupid for even having to say this, but the Cardinals absolutely did the right thing by designating Tommy Pham for assignment to make room for Jordan Walker’s return to the big club.

I don’t know if anyone out there is criticizing this swap of outfielders in a changeover of a roster spot, but I see no reason to throw rocks at the Cardinals over this.

I’m a Pham fan from way back, and I thought he’d make a difference after being dealt here by the White Sox at the trade deadline. The right-handed Pham has swell career numbers against lefty pitchers, and that was the appeal of bringing Pham in. The Cardinals have been miserable against left-handed throwers all season, and Pham presumably would strengthen a weak area. But it didn’t happen.

– The idea that the Cardinals moved Pham out to save money is absurd. No. 1, the money owed to Pham wasn’t anything to break the bank – not even ownership’s piggy bank that presumably is protected by armed security. This was a baseball decision. They were going to have to pay Pham, anyway, unless he signs with another team.

– Pham wasn’t delivering the anticipated level of offense. He hit two homers and drove in seven runs against lefties early in his St. Louis homecoming but stalled out. Pham batted only .194 vs. lefties over the last month and didn’t have a hit in his last 14 at-bats against them.

– Pham stopped hitting, period. After powering for a .471 average and .882 slugging percentage in his first five games since the trade, Pham spiraled into a downturn. In his last 51 at-bats, Pham had six hits for a .118 average and struck out 25.4 percent of the time. He wasn’t getting on base, wasn’t cranking extra-base hits, and wasn’t a threat against LH pitchers.

– So what would be the reason for keeping Pham around? The Cardinals may be technically alive in the wild-card race, but let’s be adults here. With 29 games left on their schedule (before Friday), the Cards are six games behind the Braves for the No. 3 wild-card spot.

– Not only that, but the Cardinals had two other wild-card contenders ahead of them and trail tthe Mets by three games and the Cubs by one. And the Cards were only a half-game above the Giants. As of 4:30 on Friday afternoon, FanGraphs gave St. Louis a 1.9 percent chance of earning a postseason passport. Not. Gonna. Happen.

– The remaining month of games are better used to give young players an opportunity to add more experience at the big-league level and work on ways to improve. Most of all, this applies to J. Walker. To keep Pham in a roster spot that should belong to Walker would qualify as malfeasance. Such a silly thing would be hopelessly idiotic.

– And I’m assuming the Cardinals will actually play Walker extensively this time. His brief stay with the Cards earlier this month – one week, four games, three starts and 12 plate appearances – was ludicrous and bizarre. And this nonsense only drew more attention to the Cardinals’ incompetence in their handling of young hitters.

– We’ve seen way too many failures here, and the latest Walker episode is an example of why it keeps happening. This farcical and aborted plan to use the right-handed swinging Walker as a platoon bat against lefties – even though Walker is substantially better against right-handed pitchers – told us all we need to know. But I’m sure Bill DeWitt Jr. thinks everything is fantastic. Go ahead, baseball men … keep ruining players that you draft and “develop” and don’t worry about losing your jobs.

– I give Walker credit for the way he reentered the Memphis lineup after the Cardinals foolishly told him to pack his bats and go after wasting his time. Walker went 8 for 23 (.348) with a .500 onbase percentage and .435 slugging percentage during his detour at Triple A. Before Walker was promoted for illogical reasons, he’d crushed Triple A pitching for a .343 average, .687 slug, 1.087 OPS, six doubles and five home runs over a three-week barrage.

– Walker has been summoned to join the Cardinals at Yankee Stadium for their three-game weekend series. And he needs to play every day … no exceptions other than injury. Just a reminder: as a rookie last season, Walker larruped right-handed pitchers for an impressive slash line of .292/.358/.478 and had an extra-base hit every 11 at-bats.

– Oli Marmol must commit to Walker and install him as a lineup fixture. Don’t be concerned about hurting some veteran’s feelings. Committing to Walker and seeing him come around again is a lot more important to Walker, the team and your managerial future.

— By bringing Walker back from Memphis so soon, the Cardinals are admitting they made a mistake by promoting him to (mostly) sit on the bench and watch earlier this month.

– Walker is an enormous piece for this lineup – potentially — in 2025. The remaining dates on the 2024 schedule should be reserved for investing time in him. Being patient with him. And this final month of the schedule will be a major credibility test for this team’s batting coaches. Maybe Matt Carpenter should intervene and take over the Walker project.

– For his part, Walker has to fully dedicate himself to doing what must be done to take a huge step in his career. Dig in with the intensity of a Masyn Winn. Walker is a good person but his maturity must kick in now.

– Walker can’t be yanked around. Still only 22, he shouldn’t have to fret and look over his shoulder and fear the dreaded text message that has “Memphis” in every dang time he goes 0 for 4.

Will the Cardinals screw up another opportunity to get Walker back on track in a way that’s reminiscent of his hitting performance during his final 30 games of 2023? It’s way past time to get this right.

Thanks for reading, and please have a fabulous weekend…

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing.

Here’s the link: @TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

The post Bernie’s Bird Btyes: Jordan Walker Is Back, And The Cardinals Can’t Afford To Screw This Up Again. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

The Cardinals are a .500 team and have a little more than a month to go to before finalizing their second consecutive disappointing season. This is more palatable than last season’s 71-91 mess, but that provides little consolation.

And .500 is their neighborhood.

This is where the Redbirds live.

Home address: 500 Mediocre Avenue, St. Louis MO, 63102.

In August the Cardinals never have been higher than three games above .500 and haven’t plummeted lower than three below .500. It is a predictable pattern by a predictable team that is beset by the predictable problems. An offense that shrinks and disappears with runners in scoring position. A starting rotation that has a 5.01 ERA (26th) since the start of July.

The 2024 Cardinals do enough to prevent themselves from slipping into the abyss … and don’t do enough to move into the role of a relevant postseason contender. At 67-67, they have settled into that gray area that separates good and bad. The Cardinals aren’t horrifically bad … but not good.

I’m not someone who sits at the keyboard and thinks about something like this: Gee, I’ve been hard on the Cardinals, really ripping them, so now I better scrounge around and find something nice to say about them.

No, that’s not me. If they are playing well, I write accordingly. When they are flopping and skidding, I write accordingly. I don’t have quotas for polite columns, or for negative columns. I never want to pretend that everything about them STINKS just because the Cardinals have struggled this year. And I never want to pretend that everything is OUTSTANDING just because the Cardinals put together a fine flurry of victories.

A friend texted me the other day with this question: “Hey, this season has been hard to watch for a lot of reasons, and I’m tired of them, just like a lot of fans are. But will there be any positive takeaways?”

We exchanged some thoughts on this. Yes. Of course. There are positives to pull out of the wreckage. This is my list, and it’s based on player performance. Ownership, front office plus manager and coaches are in a separate category. There is plenty of time to do those nifty postseason report cards.

For now, my focus is on the players who have separated themselves from the pack in a good way. And I’m focusing on younger players who hadn’t really established themselves before the 2024 campaign …

1. Masyn Winn: I wrote about the rookie shortstop yesterday and expressed my admiration for the way he’s played offensively and defensively this season. I’m always happy to praise Winn. His poise, maturity and intelligence are off the charts. He won’t turn 23 until next March. Rather than run a lot of stats by you – I did that Thursday – I’ll enter this into the file:

According to the Baseball Reference version of Wins Above Replacement, Winn has provided more value than any rookie in the majors.

Mawyn’s 4.1 WAR is ahead of Padres outfielder Jackson Merrill, who ranks second with 3.6 WAR. Among rookies, Winn is the highest-rated player defensively and No. 2 offensively.

Among Cardinal position players that have played at least 100 games this season, Winn has contributed the most value according to Baseball Reference WAR. And it isn’t even close: Winn at 4.8 wins, and Nolan Arenado second with 2.0 wins.

Win should be getting more recognition as a short-list NL Rookie of the Year candidate. Merrill does have more WAR than Winn in the FanGraphs version, but only by a difference of a half-win margin.

Winn is the obvious choice as the Cardinals MVP for 2024.

2. Alec Burleson: the big guy has plugged his power in this season, and it’s made him a different hitter. In his second full season, Burleson leads the Cardinals with 21 home runs and 72 RBIs. Compared to 22, Burly’s batting average is up 35 points, his slugging percentage is up 66 points, his OPS is up 82 points, and there’s a plus 25 percent gain in adjusted OPS.

3. Andre Pallante: Since entering the rotation on May 29, the third-year righthander leads St. Louis starters with a 3.50 ERA. In his second start of the season, Pallante was strafed for six runs in three rough innings. Since that low point, Pallante has a 3.19 ERA in 13 starts, and that’s considerably better than Sonny Gray’s 4.50 ERA over the same span of time. Pallante isn’t dominating and overpowering. But he makes pitches, gets bushels of ground balls, competes with a hard edge, keeps the ball in the yard, and is equally effective against left-handed and right-handed hitters. He’ll be 26 at the start of the 2025 season and should be near the front of the line for a spot in a (hopefully) revamped rotation.

4. Michael Siani: because of injuries, the Cardinals turned to Siani out of desperation and made him their center fielder. The rookie’s defense has been superb; he is well above above average in every metric. He saved some runs for the pitching staff until being sidelined with an oblique strain on Aug. 3. (Should be back soon.) No one expected much offensively from Siani, but over his last 31 games before going on the IL he batted .354 with a .391 onbase percentage and .415 slug. With his elite defense, that’s a helluva bonus. Siani’s baserunning skills are excellent, and even with the missed time he leads the team with 14 steals and a success rate of 82.3 percent.

5. Victor Scott: I’m sticking with the center fielders. And another rookie makes the list. Scott, 23, has looked like a different player since being promoted from Triple A Memphis to take over for Siani. In his MLB debut, Scott was clearly overwhelmed when plugged in ahead of schedule at the at the start of the season to fill an injury shortfall. But after a slow start, Scott has come along nicely. He’s batted .254 with a .418 slug since being recalled. And in his last eight games, Scott has pounded to a .385 average and 1.014 OPS and has made some spectacular plays. Just getting better and better. He’s definitely a factor for 2025.

6. Ryan Fernandez. Another rookie find, via the Rule V draft. In his first big-league season after being recommended to the Cardinals by consultant Chaim Bloom, Fernandez emerged as a nice surprise in the Cards bullpen. Gradually taking on more innings and higher–leverage situations, the righty has a 3.38 ERA in 50 appearances. He’s tired out a bit, and needs to reduce his walk rate going forward. But Fernandez has a nasty slider that’s locked opponents into a .157 average, a 40 percent whiff-swing rate, and 37 strikeouts in 102 at-bats. He should be a big part of next season’s ‘pen.

7. Pedro Pages and Ivan Herrera. The Cardinals needed reserve strength at the catcher position because of injuries to starting catcher Willson Contreras, who is also used at DH. The rookies have supplied solid depth.

Pages, 25, is challenged offensively but has delivered some big hits along the way. (Ask the Cubs.) Pages is above-average defensively and handles pitchers with advanced maturity. His caught-stealing rate (21%) is above the league average for catchers. Pages has a 3.96 catcher ERA that’s the best among Cards catchers this season. And St. Louis is 22-20 this season when Pages starts at catcher.

Herrera, 24, needs work defensively and is determined to improve. He has a great attitude. And when the Cardinals lost Contreras to a broken arm in early May, Herrera answered the call by hitting .318 with a .770 OPS until Contreras returned. Including his DH games, the Cards are 25-24 with Herrera in the lineup. The two rookie catchers have helped the Cardinals this season and are worthy of praise.

8. Matthew Liberatore: the lefty pitcher is still only 24. And when the Cardinals have actually stopped messing with him, Libby has done a good job as a reliever. He has a fine 3.22 ERA overall, and has been solid against right-handed batters. In facing 176 LH hitters as a reliever this season, Liberatore has held them to a .176 average, has a 26 percent strikeout rate, and limited walks to 3.4 percent. Liberatore may not turn out to be the effective starting pitcher the Cardinals envisioned, but he should be appreciated for his work as a reliever. If anything he should have a more prominent role in ’25.

Thanks for reading …

I’ll have another column for you late this afternoon …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing. Here’s the link: @TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: The 2024 Season Isn’t All Bad. Here Are 9 Cardinals That Have Upgraded Their Status For 2025. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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As a sportswriter and passionate fan of college football, one of my fondest experiences in this business was watching coach Gary Pinkel’s Missouri football team win consecutive SEC East championships in 2013 and 2014.

Though the MU lost in both years, the memories were marked down as big winners in my head and heart. So much fun. Mizzou said hello to the SEC, and it was so much fun. Missouri was 23-5 over the two campaigns and the ‘13 squad finished at No. 5 nationally in the end-of-season rankings.

This wasn’t the only inspirational rising for the MU program under Pinkel. The Hall of Fame coach brought a dormant Mizzou program back to life. And how.

We’ll never forget the 2007 and 2008 teams, led by quarterback Chase Daniel, with an offense that rolled to an average of 41 points per game over the two seasons.

The Tigers went 22-6 over the two years. The ascendant and entertaining 2007 breakout – Tigers on the loose! – was ranked No. 1 in the nation after outlasting Kansas in a scintillating game at Kansas City late in the season. They went on to rout Arkansas in the Cotton Bowl, and finished No. 4 nationally in the final rankings.

In 2007 and 2008 … and again in 2013 and 2014 … I had similar feelings and thoughts and wishes.

This is what Missouri football can be.

See, there is hope.

This Mizzou program still needs work but can be something special.

MU fans – young and old – deserve this.

Of course, the warm and fuzzies didn’t last for Truman the Tiger and the Missouri faithful. The good times didn’t last. The title aspirations were snuffed out. Back to mediocrity, or being content with winning seasons and a trip to a third-tier bowl game.

Getting so close under Pinkel’s leadership – not once, but twice – made the disappointment colder and harsher when MU returned to reality … returned to its proper place in the college football hierarchy.

Oh well, remember the good times.

Sustained success was still a challenge and a burden and frustratingly elusive … if not next to impossible.

And along came the fast-talking, attention-grabbing, traveling salesman and evangelist. This rambunctious football preacher had an unusual name: Elijah Drinkwitz. He was a character from a backroads tent-revival show in the south.

Coach Drink had a program to pitch, and dreams to sell, and he never stopped pushing or yapping in his relentless mission to get everyone to believe in the high-ceiling potential of his program. We didn’t know if he was selling snake oil, or some bogus miracle elixir. Was this curious soul a proselytizer or propagandist?

A lot of us – including me – didn’t know if this crusader would survive a program that has ended or damaged too many promising careers. Coach Drink was 17-19 after his first three seasons in CoMo, but this much was certain. This campaigner would not go quietly.

One way or another, the make-or-break season of 2023 would be a compelling adventure.

It reminds me of an Abraham Lincoln quote I read in a book of his sayings: “When I hear a man preach, I like to see him act as if he were fighting bees.”

Fighting bees. Taking the stings. Walking and talking to where he wanted to go. Clear the obstacles. He will recruit your players. He would not take no. Nothing would stop him. Fight the bees, earn respect for being so damned determined, wear the skeptics down, make them see the light. And let him have an audience with the recruits he coveted. That’s Mizzou’s coach.

The 2023 season showcased all of the skills that makes Coach Drink the ideal leader in this chaotic, rowdy, ruthless, circus-maximus era of college football. An ambitious program needs an ambitious messenger who can sell, sell, sell.

Get him in front of the politicians in Jefferson City and they will pass a law that gives Mizzou a competitive edge in the NIL bidding for the best available players. If Missouri the institution needs more money, Coach will make some calls to Jeff City and get the financial support the university needs.

Get this coach to the revolving doors of the transfer portal, and watch how he spins his magic and convinces the skeptical, lump-sum recruits that their dreams and his dreams can be a shared dream.

How’s that NIL money coming? What do I need to do to land that recruit in St. Louis? Go, go, go. I’m not sure, but I think it is actually possible for Drinkwitz to be in two places at the same time. And if he may not sleep. Ever.

Since I’m tapping into quotes here – and I am also a fan of Navy football – I pass along these words from the legendary naval officer, John Paul Jones:

“I wish to have no connection with any ship that does not sail fast, for I intend to go in harm’s way.”

Drinkwitz has that spirit. Just tell him he can’t do something. Tell him he’s in over his head in the SEC. Tell him he can’t run with the big dogs. Tell him he can’t get the MU administration to be his offensive line, opening holes in the defensive front that has brought down too many Mizzou coaches.

Tell him he can’t get the best recruits from this state, or beat the established coaching elites to transfer-portal talent. Tell him he can’t curate a strong football-and-family culture, and he’ll do it quicker than anybody expected. And it’s real. Heck, the evangelist coach has even managed to unite the MU board of curators. Hey, team! Let’s win! I’m your coach! We’re all one family!

Drinkwitz, you see, intends to go in harm’s way, to places no Mizzou football coaches could reach. When the administration says no, he gets them to say yes. He pushes. If he wins, he won’t get fired. If he loses, then maybe his burning ambition burns him out … and out of a job.

But this coach bets on himself. So it’s all about winning and combining an upgraded roster with an enhanced culture to make it happen.

And for the love of Dan Devine, Drink went out there, into the SEC territories, and got the damn thing done in 2023.

Eleven ‘freaking wins.

Beat the pomposity out of Ohio State.

Had Mizzou ranked No. 8 in the nation as the season was downloaded into history.

Recruits? On the way.

NIL treasury? Check.

Transfer portal? He has VIP status.

Jefferson City? In his huddle.

Mizzou administration? Purring.

And now …

A reading from the Book of Eli.

The movie.

Solara: You know, you say you’ve been walking for thirty years, right?

Eli: Right?

Solara: Have you ever thought that maybe you were lost?

Eli: Nope.

Solara: Well, how do you know that you’re walking in the right direction?

Eli: I walk by faith, not by sight.

Solara: What does that mean?

Eli: It means that you know something even if you don’t know something.

The other Eli — Drinkwitz — knew something.

And he found that special something in 2023.

Mizzou kicks off its 2024 season in a few hours with a home game against Murray State – no relation to “Mitch and Murray” – and college football is back.

Missouri is ambitioning for a place in the 12-team national playoffs. Might make it with nine wins, but 10 wins is much safer. This team has questions, but this applies to just about every squad in the land. But Coach Drink seemingly has his young men poised to achieve the first back-to-back 10-win seasons since 1968-1969. Here the Tigers go again, trying to regenerate the sustained success.

This is such an exciting time for Mizzou’s program and its fan base. But let’s acknowledge this: it’s also an anxious time. The pressure is on the Tigers. Coach and his crew can’t have a follow-up flop to an 11-win season. Missouri can’t go back to the old days, when elevated expectations led to a harrowing fall. Missouri took some opponents by surprise in 2023, but that ain’t happening in 2024.

That gold “M” is circled on the schedule. Every coach on Mizzou’s calendar is hungry to kick Missouri back to the more familiar 7-5 or 6-6 space. They want to hush Mizzou’s yapping coach and blunt MU’s momentum. They want to slow the roll of this uppity but historically underachieving program that thinks one great season puts them in the class of Bama, LSU and Georgia. The nerve of those people!

Of course, this pressure to answer these tougher challenges can bring the best out of Mizzou. That’s quite possible. On the other side, failure under pressure could lead to a loss of confidence, and close wins slip away and become close losses. And that’s when words like “frauds” will be thrown in MU’s direction. That’s high-stakes football.

I happen to believe in Mizzou. The muzzle of bees is out there, but Drinkwitz is ready to go into harm’s way. It’s an exhilarating but dangerous time for the coach, his players, and the fantasies of the Mizzou family.

Thanks for reading …

– Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing.

Here’s the link: @TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie On Mizzou Football: Eli’s Coming! Let The Adventure Begin, And Prepare For A Wild Ride. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

There’s some day baseball on the menu Thursday, with Cardinals and Padres playing their series finale at 1:15 p.m. The Redbirds can salvage a 2-2 series split by winning this one. Not that it will matter in the standings. The Cards (66-67) are seven games out of the NL’s third wild-card spot and FanGraphs gives them a 1.1 percent possibility of making the playoffs. Plenty of cheap tickets are available for today’s competition.

I’m off to a late start – technology is not my pal today – so The Review will be shorter than usual. I’m getting this one finished just a few minutes before the scheduled first pitch.

ABOUT LAST NIGHT: The Cardinals pulled up their britches to grab a 4-3 win over the Friars on a walk-off single by Nolan Arenado in the ninth. I liked the generational blend that went into the manufacturing of the winning run. Rookie Masyn Winn began the process with a two-out, two-strike single. Rookie Victor Scott II moved Winn into scoring position with a single. The victory was cashed in by Arenado.

Arenado is 33, a veteran of 12 MLB seasons, and has played 1,654 regular-season games in the bigs.

Winn is 22, has played in 161 major-league games.

Scott, 23, is a “veteran” of 41 MLB games.

The two rookies have 201 games between them – only 1,453 fewer than ‘Nado.

MASYN WINN, SUNSHINE ON A CLOUDY DAY: How do you like that Temptations reference? It wasn’t surprising to see Winn extend the bottom of the ninth with his money-time, two-out, two-strike hit. Among 123 major-league hitters that have handled at least 500 two-strike counts this season, Winn ranks third with a .271 batting average and seventh with a .391 slugging percentage. This is a direct reflection on his advanced maturity, refined baseball intelligence, and a keen instinct for game situations.

How about this? This season Winn has hit .288 with a healthy onbase rate (.353) with two outs. That’s really good. But in two-out situations with two strikes in the count, check out Winn’s hitting line:

.377 average
.434 onbase pct
.449 slugging pct
.883 OPS
– wRC+ (adjusted runs created) that’s 53 percent above the league average.

And on a team that is awful in the critically important area of effective hitting with runners in scoring position, Winn is hitting .265 overall with RISP. And .286 with runners in scoring position on two-strike counts. And – get this – a .360 average with runners in scoring position when facing the pressure of two outs and two strikes.

Manager Oli Marmol has so much confidence and belief in Winn, he moved the rookie into the leadoff spot earlier this season. It can be a difficult assignment for an inexperienced hitter, and Winn had a poor .288 leadoff onbase percentage before the All-Star break.

Ah, but he’s Masyn Winn. And Masyn Winn understands what he must do to get better – for himself and for the team. And since the All-Star break, Winn has a leadoff onbase percentage of .340 to go with a .461 slug and .800 OPS. This man knows how to adapt.

And then there’s Winn’s defense. He leads MLB shortstops with 14 Defensive Runs Saved this season. And that +14 is tied for third in the majors overall, with every other position included.

Winn is special. And he’ll only improve and become even more exceptional over time.

VICTOR SCOTT: Part II is working out better than Part I, when Scott was prompted to the show ahead of schedule to fill the void left by injuries in center field.

In his first 20 big-league games, Scott batted .085 with a .274 OPS. In his next 20 games – which covers the time since his promotion from the minors in early August – Scott has a .238 average and .670 OPS.

Those recent numbers don’t stand out, but they jump out to me for a reason: they show how much progress Scott has made. And that’s a positive. If you need confirmation of Scott’s improvement, he’s hit .364 with a 1.008 OPS in his last seven games.

NOLAN ARENADO: This is one of the best quotes of the year by a Cardinal player. Arenado offered a bluntly honest assessment of how he’s let negative emotions seep into him because of his frustration with his highly documented struggles on offense in 2024.

“What I’ve come to realize is that if I’m not going to perform well, I’m definitely not going to be a cancer in this clubhouse to anybody,” Arenado told the STL media after bringing home the winning run Thursday. “I’m still going to try to help. I mean, I can still lead in different ways. It may not be with performance, but I can still help these guys out, spend time with them and get to know them.

“The young guys, with their energy, it’s helped me to perform better because I just want to compete with them and enjoy it. I’m trying to get lost in the competition and not be too worried about what my numbers say. I know they’re not where I want them to be, but I can’t change it overnight. I want to go out there and compete and whatever happens, happens.”

Arenado really means this. I appreciate his self awareness. If you read me (or listen to me), you’ll know I’ve used the phrase “a lot of negative energy” many times this season when referencing Arenado and his flawed leadership. I’ve also commented on his visibly distressed body language.

It isn’t easy for a highly decorated but aging player to suddenly deal with a substantial loss of power; no one would expect him to be Mr. Happy. But his negativity was, well, negative for the team. And he had been this way for a while, going back to last season.

I respect Arenado for recognizing that his negativism was detrimental. He’s trying hard to change. Pardon my amateur psychology, but a more positive attitude can only help Arenado cope with the inevitable slumps and self doubt. He beats himself up. If he does that too much, it makes his personality turn darker. That isn’t beneficial for anyone – especially Arenado.

In his last 46 games, Arenado has hit .297 with a .451 slug and .797 OPS. He has seven homers and 27 RBIs over that time. In August, through Wednesday, Arenado has hit .302 with a .448 slug and 16 runs batted in. This month he’s also come through with a .375 average and 14 RBIs in 24 at-bats with runners in scoring position.

SPEAKING OF THE OLDIES: Paul Goldschmidt went 7 for 11 with a homer and four RBIs in the first three games of the current series. He’s in the lineup today.

BURLY BALL: He batted .333 with an .896 OPS in his last 11 games through Wednesday.

ANDRE “PALLY” PALLANTE: The young righthander competed like a hellion Wednesday. He faced 27 Padres and 10 reached base (37%) on eight hits and two walks. He also was charged with two wild pitches. The Padres took determined at-bats and made Pallante work feverishly over his 104-pitch work shift. But the Padres couldn’t break him. The key: Pallante allowed only one hit in eight at-bats with runners in scoring position. And with men on base, the Padres batted .231 against him. Pallante could have given up more than two runs in his 5 and ⅔ innings, but he fought hard to cap the damage.

Pallante has a 3.02 in his last 10 starts, and a 3.50 ERA overall in his 15 starts this season. Among Cardinal pitchers that have made at least 10 starts since Pallante joined the rotation on May 29, here’s the simple rundown of their performances based on ERA:

Andre Pallante, 3.50
Lance Lynn, 4.78
Sonny Gray, 4.92
Miles Mikolas: 4.96
Kyle Gibson, 5.35

Gray goes for the Cardinals this afternoon. Gray has been horrendous on the road this season with a 5.62 ERA and 16 home runs allowed. But in 13 home starts, Gray has a 2.72 at Busch Stadium and has been struck for only four homers in 76 innings. This season Gray’s 2.72 home ERA is the seventh best among pitchers that have started at least 13 games in their home ballparks.

RYAN HELSLEY, RING THE BELL: He got the win Wednesday in his seventh consecutive appearance of scoreless pitching. In the seven games Pallante has five saves and two victories and has struck out 26 percent of batters faced. He’s allowed more baserunners in recent weeks but doesn’t rattle. Helsley is still among the best closers in the sport for 2024.

Pardon my typos …

Thanks for reading…

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing. Here’s the link:

https://www.youtube.com/@TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: Masyn Winn Is A Special Player. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

I’ll get warmed up with nine Fungoes …

1. How low can the Cardinals go? And I’m talking about the number of fans who actually are seated at Busch Stadium for home games. There were fewer than 12,000 patrons in the house for Tuesday’s 7-5 loss to the Padres. Good luck to the Cardinals’ excellent marketing staff. They do a good job, but it’s excruciatingly difficult to sell a bad and boring product. Surely this will fire up ownership to make massive changes in the baseball department. Right?

2. Wait a minute. What? This, from the esteemed Derrick Goold in his Tuesday chat with readers on STLtoday:

“All indications are that (John) Mozeliak will finish out his contract and that ownership will welcome him finishing out his contract, and that Mozeliak has — let me type this again — said he wants to create a clear plan where other voices grow in influence and volume over the coming offseason and season. No, the DeWitts are not close to selling, and I’m guessing we’re just going to have to repeat this over and over for the next few months too. Yes, they have access to the same standings you do.”

3. Well, then. If it plays out that way, the fans will rejoice and overwhelm the Cardinals’ ticket operations for season-ticket applications and suite rentals for 2025. Those folks in the ticket department will have to cancel offseason vacation plans to handle the overload of ticket requests.

4. Yeah, that was sarcasm.

5. I’ll get into this epic failure later in the column, but it’s inexcusable to see the Cardinals abandon so many runners on base because of terrible at-bats with runners in scoring position. This is ridiculous.

6. I like the way Victor Scott II is playing ball. His talent is obvious. He wasn’t ready for the majors at the beginning of the season, but the rookie center fielder is clearly moving in the right direction. And he delivers some excitement for a dull, increasingly unwatchable team.

7. The Cardinals dropped the first two games of the four-game set with Mike Shildt and the Padres. But hey, at least the Redbirds will have their best starter, Andre Pallante, pitching the rock on Wednesday.

8. Meanwhile, on the other side of Missouri, the Kansas City Royals have won three straight games at Cleveland and have a chance to make it four in a row over the Guardians with a victory this afternoon. Royals have won 10 of their last 13 games with an offense that’s cranked an average of 5.8 runs and slugged .508 during the stretch. The Royals (75-58) and Guardians (75-58 are tied for first in the AL Central. On June 25 the Royals were in third place in the division and trailed Cleveland by 10 games. At that time, FanGraphs gave the Royals a 4.5 percent shot of winning the division and a 27.3% probability of making the playoffs. And now? KC has the highest probability of winning the division (39%) and a 91.7% chance of making the playoffs.

9. Through Tuesday, former Cardinals infielder Paul DeJong has played in 19 games for the Royals since being acquired from the White Sox. And he’s making an impact, batting .304 with a .375 onbase percentage and .625 slug for a nifty 1.000 OPS. DeJong has homered twice in the series at Cleveland, giving him five home runs and 12 RBIs in 53 at-bats for Kansas City. For the season, DeJong has 23 homers, 17 doubles, 53 RBIs and a .458 slug in his combined stats for the White Sox and Royals.

“I think it’s given me a lot of life to be able to come here every day and compete with these guys,” DeJong recently told MLB.com. “They’ve had their culture all year, they’ve been doing well, but for me to be able to step in and do what I can do and bring something to this team, it just makes coming to the ballpark a lot more fun.”

ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT: After losing two straight to the Padres, the 65-67 Cardinals are now seven games out of the NL’s third wild-card spot that’s held by the Braves. The Cardinals have four teams ahead of them and trail the Giants and Cubs by 1 and ½ games, the Mets by four games and the Braves by seven. There’s been no charge from the Cardinals, who have lost 15 of 24 games in August.

– With only 30 games remaining on the St. Louis schedule, FanGraphs gives the Cards a 0.9 percent chance of making the postseason, and Baseball Prospectus is even lower at 0.6 percent.

– The forecast models used by FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus and Clay Davenport project a final 80-82 record for the Cardinals.

– Since peaking with a record of 48-42 on July 8, the Cardinals are 17-25 for a .409 winning percentage that ranks 14th among NL teams since July 10. Over this time, only the Marlins (16-25) and White Sox (5-34) have done worse than the Redbirds.

MILES MIKOLAS: STILL THE SAME. Making his first start since turning 36 on Aug. 22, the righthander gave up six hits (including a homer) and four earned runs in 5 and ⅔ innings.

Through 27 starts, Mikolas has a 5.23 ERA that is 58th among 60 innings-qualified MLB starters this season. And his 16.4 percent strikeout rate is the poorest by an innings-qualified big-league starter in 2024.

Since the start of last season, Mikolas has a 4.97 ERA that’s the third worst among regular starters in the majors. Mikolas has a guaranteed contract with the Cardinals that will pay him $18.5 million in 2025.

ST. LOUIS ROTATION UPDATE: Cardinal starting pitchers rank 26th in the majors with a 5.13 ERA since the end of June. The team’s record since the start of July is five games under .500 at 22-27. The rotation ERA is 5.21 through the first 24 games in August.

Here are the pertinent starting-pitcher ERAs since the beginning of July:

• Pallante, 3.33
• Erick Fedde, 4.23
• Miles Mikolas, 5.07
• Sonny Gray, 5.83
• Kyle Gibson, 5.94
• Lance Lynn, 6.27

THE LATEST CHAPTER IN THE POPULAR MYSTERY SERIES, “THE CASE OF THE VANISHING RUNNERS IN SCORING POSITION WHO DON’T SCORE.”

Or something like that.

It was another absurd evening of missed opportunities, lost chances, heartburn, drained confidence and the inability to turn a 5-4 lead into a larger advantage. Accordingly, the Cardinals were toppled by the Padres, 7-5.

With runners on base the Cardinals went 1 for 10 and struck out five times. They abandoned 10 teammates on base. They’ve stranded 18 runners in the last two games.

In two bases-loaded situations the Cardinals were 0 for 3 with two strikeouts.

This has been going on all season, with the Cardinals retching in the batter’s box when presented with a timely chance to rearrange the game with a big hit.

I came with numbers:

+ The Cardinals have the worst batting average in the NL with runners in scoring position at .224. That’s 28th overall.

+ Their 22 home runs with RISP are the fewest in the majors.

+ Their .329 slugging percentage with RISP is the worst in the majors.

+ Their .630 OPS with RISP is last in the majors.

+ They are last in the NL and 26th overall, for RBIs in RISP situations.

+ With the bases loaded, the Cardinals rank last in the NL and 29th overall with a .163 batting average. They’re last in the NL with a .293 slug with the bases jammed. And the Cards have only three doubles and two homers with the bases full.

Now, for some history:

+ Over the last 10 years, beginning in 2015, here’s where the 2024 Cardinals rank in RISP categories on a list of 300 individual-team seasons:

— Batting average, No. 293 of 300
— Slugging: No. 299 of 300
— OPS: No. 298 of 300
— Home runs: No. 274 of 300

+ With the bases loaded over the last 10 seasons, the 2024 Cardinals rank 297th (among 300) in batting average, 293rd in slugging, and 289th in OPS.

OK, WHY ARE THE CARDINALS SO TERRIBLE AT THIS?

First reason: the Cardinals have been doomed by too many RISP failures by notable hitters. Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Gorman, Willson Contreras, Lars Nootbaar, Matt Carpenter, Victor Scott, and Michael Siani are all batting .210 or less with runners in scoring position in 2024.

Second reason, more on Goldy: among 75 MLB hitters that have at least 120 at-bats with RISP this season, Goldschmidt is dead last with a .167 average and at the smack-dang bottom with a .225 slugging pct. He also has the third-worst strikeout rate among the 75 hitters at 31.2 percent.

Third reason: the Cardinals have three bad characteristics in RISP plate appearances:

– Only five MLB teams have watched more called strikes go by than the Cardinals in RISP situations.

– The Cards swing at too many pitches off the plate with RISP, and when they put the ball in play on non–strikes, they’re hitting .121 with a .131 slug.

– This might be the most damaging RISP flaw of all: when pitchers attack with heart-of-the-plate strikes, the Cardinals are last in the majors in batting average (.259) and slugging percentage (.422.) Even worse, only two teams have taken more called strikes than the Cardinals when pitchers throw a meatball down the middle. Good grief.

OK, that’s a lot of numbers. Too many. But I hope it puts some light on the problems.

LOOSE ENDS

A) Since returning to Triple A Memphis after the Cardinals wasted his time on a one-week call-up, Jordan Walker is 7 for 19 (.368) with a .905 OPS. And in his last 25 games for Memphis, Walker is batting .320 with a .380 OBP and .577 slug. Hey, the Cardinals don’t need no stinkin’ offense.

B) In his last nine games for the Cardinals, Victor Scott is 8 for 25 (.320) with a .393 OBP and .520 slug. Three of his eight hits have gone for extra bases. I hope he keeps it up.

C) Since being sent down to Memphis, Nolan Gorman had a two-hit game that included a home run – but otherwise is 0 for 11 with three strikeouts.

D) Mike Shildt’s Padres are tied with the Diamondbacks for the best record in the majors (26-9) since the All-Star break. This is an excellent road team. San Diego has the NL’s best road record (39-26) on the season and are 15-5 in their last 20 games away from Petco Park.

E) After taking a 5-4 lead over the Padres on Goldschmidt’s two-run homer in the fifth, St. Louis hitters had 3 hits in 16 at-bats the rest of the way.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing.

Here’s the link: @TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: Runners In Scoring Position. And Not Scoring. Same Old Cardinals. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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BIRD BYTES

Quick Pregame Read!

Bernie Bits style!

1. Going into Tuesday’s game with the Padres, the Cardinals have a 22-26 record since the start of July. And though the St. Louis offense usually gets most of the blame for lack of success, we shouldn’t overlook the bruising decline of the starting pitching.

2. Since July 1, the Cardinals rank 26th among the 30 major-league teams with a 5.10 ERA. Over the first three months they were more respectable, ranking 17th overall with a 4.18 ERA. The rotation wasn’t dominant or elite, but after last season’s rotation collapse and chaos, stability was vital. And for three months the Cardinal starters were dependable – at least by the modern standards.

3. Here’s the sorriest thing about this development: the three free-agent starters signed by John Mozeliak last offseason – Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn – have collectively pitched to a 5.94 ERA in 23 starts since the beginning of July.

4. Here’s a specific breakdown of the disappointing performances …

• Gray: 5.83 ERA in 9 starts
• Gibson: 5.94 ERA in 10 starts
• Lynn: 6.27 ERA in 4 starts

In addition to the swollen earned-run averages, Lynn had to go to the IL to calm an inflamed right knee. The other problem with the older-dude trio is the vulnerability in preventing home runs.

5. Over the last two months threesome has been pierced for 27 home runs and a rate of nearly two home runs (1.93) yielded per nine innings. Thirteen of the 27 deep shots were launched against the disappointing Gray.

6. If we add the labors of another oldie to the group, the situation is still bleak. Of course, I’m referring to Miles Mikolas, who has a 4.93 ERA in nine starts since the outset of July. And Mikolas has been popped for seven homers in 49 and ⅓ innings.

7. Gray, Gibson, Lynn and Mikolas have been exploited for 110 earned runs in 175 innings and 32 starts since July 1. That’s a collective 5.65 ERA. Woof.

8. Cards fans: These were your top four starters going into the season. The gang has not held up very well.

9. The only thumbs-up attaboy goes to Andre Pallante and his 3.33 ERA in eight starts during the same stretch that had the elder starters gasping. (Metaphorically speaking of course.) Newcomer Erick Fedde has been OK since being traded to the Cardinals. But the 4.23 ERA is a little misleading, and Fedde has been smacked for five homers in 27 and ⅔ innings.

10. In the 32 starts made by Gray, Gibson, Lynn and Mikolas since the start of July, the Cardinals have a 16-16 record. That surprised me considering their rampant ERA inflation and jacked-up home run total against them. Ah, but I took a closer look, and now I know why the record is .500 in their starts instead of being much worse than that. In STL’s 16 wins in starts by the quartet, the Cardinals averaged 6.3 runs scored per game. Run support is fantastic when you can get it.

One other note: based on their minus 59 run differential, the Cardinals should have had a record of 59-72 through Monday. Through 131 games last season, the Cards had an actual record of 56-75. The 2024 Cardinals won’t finish with the 71-91 record turned in by the 2023 Cardinals, but these are similar teams.

That is all.

Thank you for reading …

–Bernie

The post Bernie’s Bird Bytes: A Quick, Pregame Read On The State Of The Cardinals’ Starting Pitching. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

This made the rounds on social media, and there were many tweets and retweets. The words caused quite a stir among the locals. But in case you didn’t hear or see it, here’s the deal …

Two terrific San Diego team broadcasters were stunned by the sparse gathering at Busch Stadium on Monday night for the opener of the Padres-Cards series.

Analyst Mark Grant: “I’ll be honest with you. I want to get this right out of the way. We are in St. Louis, Busch Stadium. This is not the Busch Stadium I am used to. Late August, early September, usually it’s packed, the Redbirds are in the race. It’s a different vibe here.”

Play-by-play man Don Orsillo: “It’s shocking.”

Grant: “It is shocking.”

Orsillo: “Not used to this (here), not ever.”

After an on-field report about how well the Padres have played on the road this season under Mike Shildt, Orsillo went back to what broadcasters were seeing – and not quite believing – at Busch Stadium.

“A lot of those road games were played in hostile settings,” Orsillo said. “And this used to be one, heading into it. It was a tough place to play, certainly. It’s not the case right now, and I’m not sure why that is. The Cards are not out of it (the playoff race) by any means, either, at this stage of the year. But the fans have just not been coming out.”

The Cardinals are mathematically conscious in the wild-card race, sure. But any remaining optimism is expiring quickly. The reality is stark and dark.

FanGraphs gives St. Louis a 1.9 percent chance of qualifying for the postseason.

I appreciated what Orsillo and Grant had to say. They’ve been around for a long time. They’ve done games in every MLB baseball venue. And like virtually all visiting-team broadcasters, they are accustomed to seeing Busch filled with the roiling red sea of animated and boisterous fans. It was quite the spectacle. Colorful and cheerful and loud. The enthusiasm level seldom waned.

For decades, the St. Louis baseball setting has received a constant flow of admiration and praise from every broadcaster that has spent time here. Busch Stadium is one of the most celebrated places in the majors.

What I’m seeing now makes me sad. Depressed.

I covered the Cardinals up close for many years as a columnist at the Post-Dispatch and STLtoday. I have so many electric memories, I can’t recite them all.

Think about the greatness we’ve witnessed. Think about the extraordinary experiences at both Busch Stadiums, the latter ballpark opening in 2006. The first memorable adventure was the Mark McGwire show in 1998 and 1999. He hit 135 home runs over two seasons including his then-record 70 bombs in ‘98. The fans returned to the nest to root for the big man and the home team.

From 2000 through 2015, the Cardinals led the National League and were second overall to the Yankees in regular-season winning percentage.

The Cardinals qualified for the postseason 11 times, competed in the most postseason games (125) and won the most postseason games (65.) From 2000 through 2014, the Cardinals won four NL pennants, two World Series and reached the NLCS nine times.

Both Busch Stadium models were October hubs for postseason ball. From 2000 through 2015, St. Louis hosted more postseason games than any National League team. And the two Busch Stadiums were the locations for just as many home postseason games (60) as the two Yankee Stadiums.

Over those 16 seasons, no MLB franchise won more postseason home games than the St. Louis Cardinals. The Redbirds went 38-22 in postseason games at the two Busch Stadiums for a phenomenal .633 winning percentage. And the fans loved all of it.

Think about the Hall of Famers on display for the home team at both Busch Stadiums. Cooperstown Hall of Famers, franchise Hall of Famers, future Hall of Famers and a legendary Hall of Fame manager.

Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina, Tony La Russa, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen, Matt Holliday, Matt Morris, Jason Isringhausen, David Freese, Edgar Renteria, Larry Walker, Carlos Beltran, Matt Carpenter, Lance Berkman. And there are others I want to mention: Jason Motte, David Eckstein,, Michael Wacha, Darryl Kile, Woody Williams, Jeff Suppan, Trevor Rosenthal. On and on and on …

And now all we have left are the echoes. The spirits of what used to be. The scenes at Busch Stadium in 2024 are unfathomable. Empty red seats all over the place. Fans that buy tickets and don’t use them. For a lot of home games in recent weeks, the Cardinals had several record-low “announced” crowds for the newer Busch Stadium … but according to people in the know at Busch Stadium, the count of folks who were actually in the ballpark was more like 15,000 to 17,000 to 20,000.

Not counting the pandemic-disrupted seasons of 2020 and 2021, the Cardinals have drawn at least 3 million in annual home attendance in 23 of the previous 24 years. (The exception: 2.9 million in 2003.)

Going back to 2000, the Cardinals have been first or second in NL home attendance 11 times, third eight times, and fourth three times.

This season the Redbirds are sixth among 15 National League teams in total home-game attendance, based on tickets sold. And they’re unlikely to hit 3 million in home attendance for the first time since ‘03.

Why?

Many reasons.

Here’s my list:

1) Losing is a drag. The Cardinals had only one postseason-series triumph over the past nine seasons. And after the 2024 season that almost certainly will be updated to one postseason-series victory in 10 seasons. The Cardinals are 5-14 in the playoffs since 2015. St. Louis had a woeful 71-91 record last season, and could end 2024 with a second straight losing record in a full schedule-year since 1958-1959.

2) Fans are fed up over ownership’s commitment to winning, based on payroll size. That’s a hot-button issue. In my opinion the Cardinals spend enough money to have an outstanding ballclub, but make too many mistakes to pull it off. Their payroll ranking this year (12th) is just about the same as 2006 and 2011, when the Cardinals won the World Series, both times, with the No. 11 payroll.

3) Fans are disillusioned with chairman Bill DeWitt Jr.’s loyalty to president of baseball operations John Mozelak and the owner’s seeming reluctance to make major changes in the baseball sector of the franchise. This leads to familiar accusations of complacency.

With Mozeliak in charge of the baseball department, the Cardinals won 31 postseason games over four seasons, 2011 through 2014. But as I mentioned earlier in this piece, the Cards had five postseason wins over the past nine years. In that vein, the decline is staggering.

4) Mozeliak Fatigue: I’m not trying to pile on “Mo” here, but the situation is blatantly obvious; Mozeliak himself has acknowledged this. The fan base is burned out on Mozeliak. Mozeliak is responsible for every aspect of the team’s performance, and the Cardinals have slipped terribly in many areas. There are too many payroll mistakes, wasted money, and half-measure steps that don’t really solve the problem. Drafting and developing pitching has been a failure, but that seems to be improving. Overly hyped young hitters continue to flop. The trends aren’t good, and the slip-sliding trends in performance confirm that. Mozeliak has hired three managers since La Russa retired after winning the 2011 World Series. Depending on several factors, the Cardinals may be searching for a fourth manager after the season. And fans remained steamed over Moeliak’s decision to fire Mike Shildt.

5) Manager Oli Marmol is unpopular. I think more discerning fans understand that the organization’s issues are more serious and consequential than anything that has to do with the manager – but this is a guilt-by-association thing. Marmol is attached to Mozeliak for a simple reason: because the president of baseball ops hired Marmol after sacking an award-winning manager (Shildt) who led the Cardinals to the playoffs in his three consecutive years as the manager from the start to the finish of a season: 2019, 2020, 2021. (I have empathy for Marmol, but I don’t think many of you care about that. I understand.) Adding to the fan base anger and frustration was Mozeliak’s curious decision to give Marmol a two-year contract extension in spring training after saying he wouldn’t do that – preferring to wait and see how the 2024 season played out.

6) The messaging is poor. From Bill DeWitt Jr., to Bill DeWitt III, to Mozeliak … I’m sorry, but these gentlemen say too many things that aggravate fans who already are annoyed enough to stay away from Busch Stadium. This franchise needs a public-relations specialist to improve the message. The Cardinals have to stop alienating fans with terrible messaging. Give them more of a reason to give you another chance — more of a reason to like you. Don’t keep making a bad situation worse.

7) The 2024 Cardinals are a boring team without a true, radiant star. I’m not trying to sideswipe Nolan Arenado or Paul Goldschmidt here, but their best years are in the past, and Goldy probably won’t be back in 2025. Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman were supposed to develop into the next-generation stars, but … never mind. Masyn Winn is an emerging star but he has a way to go. Bottom line: the Cardinals don’t have players that motivate ambivalent or casual fans to buy tickets.

Other than wanting to enjoy a sociable day or night at the ballpark, what’s the attraction? Among the 15 NL teams, the Cardinals rank 14th in runs per game, 12th in home runs and have left the third-highest number of runners on base. And only four NL teams are allowing more runs per game than St. Louis. Sorry to mix my sports, but this isn’t exactly run-run-run Whiteyball or the Greatest Show On (Real) Turf.

8) The home-field advantage is gone. Part of the appeal of coming to the home ballpark is having the chance to cheer for a team that regularly piles up wins and sends the customers home happy. The Cardinals were able to do that for a long time – which created a standard of high expectations – so when the home-field dominance ends, it’s a bummer for fans. The St. Louis Cardinals aren’t supposed to be an easy mark for visiting teams.

And then this happened:

– STL home win percentage, 2011-2022: .590, second in the NL and third in the majors:

– STL home win percentage, 2023-2024: .473, tied for 11th in the NL and 21st overall. Cardinal fans can’t leave the ballpark feeling happy after every home game, but … this? The Cardinals no longer intimidate visitors. Hell, the Chicago White Sox (record: 31-101) won two out of three games at Busch Stadium earlier this season.

9) Uneasiness over coming to downtown St. Louis to see the Cardinals play. Exaggerated or not, the fear of crime is real, and that isn’t good for the baseball business. Or the Cardinals’ Ballpark Village business. Or other businesses near Busch Stadium. Why venture downtown to see a boring team lose so many games?

10) The cost of attending baseball isn’t cheap. The Cardinals do a good job of offering discounted ticket prices, coming up with special promotions, and providing other incentives. And even though the U.S. economy is doing well in a broader sense, that doesn’t mean it’s an easy time for those who have less discretionary income, and are paying higher prices for essentials including groceries. And when a team is bad, and consumers are making more cautious, discretionary decisions, the Cardinals will feel the impact.

I’m sure I left some things out that you may have put on the list. Unfortunately, I think we’ll have multiple opportunities to talk about this subject again.

Hey, I want to see Busch Stadium filled again. Baseball in this town is supposed to be fun and familial and an ongoing celebration of the game and the team we love. But the relationship is damaged, and it’s up to the Cardinals to repair it and motivate the fans to come back to Busch Stadium. It’s a shame the Cardinals let such a strong and beautiful thing fade. This franchise has a lot of hard work to do.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. Please subscribe.

Here’s the link: @TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: Remember When Busch Stadium Used To Be The Happiest Ballpark On Earth? It’s A Sad Place Now. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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Mike Shildt is back in The Lou as manager of the resurgent San Diego Padres. This four-game series is, well, awkward for Cardinals’ management.

Shildt was fired shortly after the 2021 season despite guiding the Cardinals to the playoffs in three consecutive years.

In 2019, Shildt led St. Louis to 90 wins and a victory over the Braves in the NLDS. It was the first (and still only) postseason-series triumph by the franchise since the 2014 Cards defeated the Dodgers.

Shildt won the 2019 NL Manager of the Year award and finished third in the voting in 2021.

Shildt’s teams in St. Louis had a special characteristic, playing their best baseball after the All-Star break – or late in the season, as was the case in the pandemic-related chaos of 2020. Shildt had a way of correcting problems on the fly, keeping his team sharp fundamentally, keeping the lines of communication wide open, and finding solutions to problems to hang tough until the roster was ready to make a run.

2018: Shildt succeeded the fired Mike Matheny right before the All-Star break. The underachieving Cardinals came dramatically better once Shildt took over, and went 40-27 after the All-Star pause.

2019: The Cardinals were 47-27 after the All-Star break and charged to the NL Central title for the first time since 2015.

2020: Shildt did a masterful job of getting the Cardinals to the playoffs despite an enormously difficult schedule. Shildt’s team was hit with two different Covid outbreaks that summer and needed to play seven doubleheaders to make up for games lost. This meant the Cardinals had to pack in 29 games over the final 23 days of the season. But Shildt’s guys went 16-13 and won eight of their last 12 to qualify for the postseason.

2021: The Cardinals experienced all kinds of hardship because of a broken-down starting rotation and were still under .500 (55-56) as late as Aug 8. And they were only one game over .500 (69-68) on Sept. 7. But Shildt’s Cardinals went 21-4 in their last 25 games, a spree that included a wild and memorable 17-game winning streak. The Cardinals were eliminated by the Dodgers in a tight, winner-take-all wild card showdown played Oct. 6 in Los Angeles.

Eight days later, Cardinals president of baseball ops John Mozeliak stunned Cardinal Nation and the baseball industry by sacking Shildt.

The tension between Shildt and Mozeliak had reached a breaking point. The manager and the head of baseball ops disagreed on the future direction of the team. That wasn’t abnormal, because managers have clashes with their front office people.

No manager pushed harder than Tony La Russa, but he’s explained his own philosophy on these the manager vs. front office rituals. According to La Russa, it’s fine to make your best case for a move or a change and press the issue, but after a while it’s time to stand down. The executives above the manager are paid to make roster decisions and have the authority. The bosses, not the manager, have the final say.

TLR always respected that boundary. He didn’t like all of the decisions made by his friend, general manager Walt Jocketty. They battled, probably more than any of us know. But the debates with Jocketty never escalated into something poisonous.

Shildt, a first-time manager, was overzealous in his disagreements with Mozeliak. Whatever Shildt said or did crossed the line with Mozeliak. I realize that Mozeliak is extremely unpopular with the fan base, so few will accept the premise of Mozeliak having legitimate reasons to move Shildt out. That’s fine. No pushback from me.

There was also an increasing amount of friction between Shildt and members of his coaching staff, and that concerned Mozeliak. Instead of discussing a contract extension with Shildt, Mozeliak pivoted and fired the guy that he (Mo) brought into the organization as a scout.

I’m not defending Mozeliak here, and at this point, it doesn’t matter. Mozeliak made the call, and by now we know how that’s worked out for the Cardinals and Shildt. The Cardinals didn’t get better for dumping Shildt. Their success has gradually subsided.

The win goes to Shilty. The last laugh goes to Shilty, even if he’ll be a gentleman and suppress it.

– Since Mozeliak dismissed Shildt and promoted bench coach Oli Marmol to the manager’s seat, the Cardinals have a .504 winning percentage that ranks 16th in the majors and eighth in the NL.

– From the time Shildt took over for the deposed Matheny midway through 2018 until his final regular-season game in 2021, Shildt had a .559 winning percentage as STL’s manager. More notably, the Cardinals were eighth overall and fourth in the NL during Shildt’s term in office.

– Some of the Cardinals’ best young hitters and position players had their best seasons as a Cardinal under Shildt. The list includes Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson, Harrison Bader, Tommy Edman, Paul DeJong, Kolten Wong, Edmundo Sosa and Lane Thomas.

– On the pitching side, starters Jack Flaherty and Dakota Hudson and relievers Giovanny Gallegos, Alex Reyes and Genesis Cabrera were at their best during the Shildt seasons. Injuries were an obvious factor in the declines of Flaherty and Hudson. And you can make the case (as I did) that Shildt overworked Reyes, Gallegos and Cabrera. But that isn’t a crime. It isn’t easy to run a bullpen and bypass your best guys to give them more rest between appearances.

– By contrast, too many young hitters have fallen into disarray and/or disappointment since Shildt’s departure. The recent examples include Carlson, Jordan Walker, and Nolan Gorman. In fairness, there have been success stories with shortstop Masyn Winn and professional hitter Alec Burleson. And also to be fair, Shildt wouldn’t play Randy Arozarena late in 2020 after the front office promoted the rookie from the minors. This was a factor in the team’s decision to trade Arozarena to Tampa Bay for pitcher Matthew Liberatore. (And we know the rest.) And Lane Thomas did stall out later on under Shildt – mostly because of injuries – and Mozeliak traded Thomas to the Nationals for starting pitcher Jon Lester in 2021. As he should have.

I know one thing for sure: the Cardinals’ deep-rooted problems are centered in the front office and management. The drafting and player development. The staff sizes of the coaching here and in the minors. The lapse in maintaining a strong infrastructure and keeping up with technology and analytics.

That’s why I have empathy for Marmol, who was given the manager’s job at a bad time – not long before the Cardinals’ organization was about to crash for reasons above his level and beyond his control.

As my friend Will Leitch pointed out in our latest “Seeing Red” podcast, Shildt got his opportunity to manage St. Louis at a more favorable time. The Cardinals were still good, Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado were younger and better, and the Cards made the playoffs in three straight seasons. (Including 2021, when Arenado and Goldy were teammates for the first time.)

The Cardinals won no pennants under Shildt, but I wouldn’t blame him for that. Just as I don’t blame Marmol for the 71-91 debacle last season, or the flawed roster this year, or the reality of Goldschmidt and Arenado losing power as they age. The Cardinals like to hype their prospects — and overrate them.

Marmol is unpopular with fans, mostly because of his association with Mozeliak. That’s how it goes. As I said, this really comes down to the front office and ownership. I don’t want to slight Marmol for his 93-win season in 2022. And I sure as heck don’t want to slight Shildt for his work as Cards manager.

Shildt cleaned up the Cardinals on defense and baserunning, frequently got his players to play their best, and knew how to make breakthroughs with struggling young players and get them to play to their potential.

The Cardinals weren’t a superpower under Shildt – but they were widely respected, still feared to some extent, and definitely still relevant. That’s no longer the case, because the gravity of ownership-management shortcomings has pulled them down. The hope is that the Cardinals will make the necessary changes that will lead to their rising.

Shildt has a more attractive situation in San Diego. At the All-Star break the Padres were 1 and ½ games behind the Cardinals in the wild-card scramble. As the teams open a four-game set Monday night, the Padres are eight games better than the Cardinals in the standings since the All-Star break. There’s been a huge change in both teams’ fortunes.

Since the All-Star break, the Padres are 24-9 for the second-best record in the majors. This fits the Shildt pattern: not including 2020 – when there was no All-Star break and only 60 games – Shildt’s teams in St. Louis and San Diego have a phenomenal .638 winning percentage after the All-Star break.

It hasn’t been an easy cruise for the Padres this season. They had four different five-game losing streaks in the first half and went into the break with a pedestrian 50-49 record. The Cardinals were 50-46.

Manny Machado got off to a poor start, and there have been some serious injuries to cope with along the way – most notably hitters Fernando Tatis and Xander Bogaerts and starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove.

But the aggressive Padres front office acquired coveted starting pitcher Dylan Cease before the season, traded for high-batting-average third baseman Luis Arraez early in the season, and buttressed the roster at the trade deadline with the trade additions of starting pitcher Martin Perez and shutdown relievers Tanner Scott and Jason Adam.

Perez has a 2.70 ERA and the Padres have won all five of his starts. Adam and Scott have combined for a 2.07 ERA in 21 and ⅔ innings. They joined a strong coterie of setup relievers to pin opponents down until it’s time for the excellent closer Robert Suarez to march in.

The Padres hope to get Tatis and Darvish back for the September push. Even without them for large blocks of the season, the Padres are 16 games above .500 and are tangling with the Diamondbacks and Dodgers for first place in the NL West. At this point, FanGraphs gives the Padres a 95.4 percent chance to make the playoffs.

The Padres love their new manager.

“When you play 162 (games), you’ve got to try to find the positives,” Musgrove told reporters in July. “Obviously, you don’t ignore the negatives, but (Shildt) is never gonna go out there and air us out to the fans and the media. He obviously wants to keep us in a good light to the fans that are watching every day.

“But all that stuff is addressed in here. And it’s never like it’s never scolding or shaming somebody for not getting the job done. It’s like, ‘This is what we need to be better. This is how we can be better. This is what I think you did right, but we could have been a little better.’ It’s just always a positive approach. There’s always something that he sees out there that he likes or doesn’t like that’s going to help you get better.”

I don’t think Shildt would play it this way publicly, but if the Padres hit the Cardinals with a body blow this week to reduce STL’s postseason chances to ashes, he’d probably take some extra enjoyment from it. And who would blame him?

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing. Here’s the link:

@TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link. We have a new one ready for you today, Aug. 26.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie On The Cardinals: Mike Shildt Returns To Busch Stadium As Manager Of The Padres. With Bragging Rights. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

The Cardinals had a good week, going 4-2 while winning two consecutive series against superior teams, Milwaukee and Minnesota.

The success barely moved the needle – and actually, their playoff chances got WORSE. According to FanGraphs, the Cardinals had a 3.9 percent possibility of making the postseason after losing a series to the Dodgers last weekend. And now, despite the positive week against the Brewers and Twins, the Cardinals’ postseason probability had decreased to 3.5% by Monday morning. And the Cardinals are stuck at five games out of the NL’s third wild-card ride.

A lot of this has to do with the schedule. It’s shrinking. The Cardinals, 65-65, begin the new week with only 32 regular-season games remaining on the docket. After playing four against San Diego (here), and three at Yankee Stadium, the Redbirds will be down to 25 games as they arrive in Milwaukee for a three-game series early next week.

So if your team has a significant deficit to erase late in August, and you have a dandy 4-2 week, it doesn’t have much impact because you’re running out of games.

Before winning four of their last five, the Cardinals had scraped to only 13 victories in their 35 previous games. That losing spiral was bad enough, but the damage was especially costly because of the 13-22 stretch that wiped five weeks off the schedule. Realistically, the Cards don’t have the time to recover from something like that. That’s why we see such a little change in their playoff odds.

When the Cardinals are finished playing their 10 games against the Padres (74-58), Yankees (77-54) and Brewers (75-55), they’ll have 22 games to go and will be running out of runway.

ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT: Even with the 4-2 mark against the Brewers and Twins, the Cardinals are 9-13 in August for a .409 winning percentage that’s tied with the Rockies for 12th in the National League this month. The Redbirds are also 17-23 since July 10, and that includes a 15-19 record since the All-Star break … the Cardinals are still 14th among 15 National League teams in runs per game (4.09) this season, and now must cope with the loss of Willson Contreras to a broken finger … the Cardinals are 4-1 in the last five despite batting .188 with runners in scoring position with 19 strikeouts in 48 at-bats … the Cardinals are 9 for 54 with RISP (.167) since Aug. 18 … the pitching has been better as of late for St. Louis, but for the season the Cardinals rank 10th in the NL with their yield of 4.52 runs allowed per game … Shildt’s Padres visit Busch Stadium with 24 wins in their last 32 games, and have MLB’s second–best record (24-9) since the All-Star break.

LIFE WITHOUT WILLSON CONTRERAS: It won’t be easy for the Cardinals to lunge for a playoff spot without their best hitter in the lineup. And make no mistake, Contreras has been the best bat on the 2024 Cardinals.

– His wRC+ of 141 is 41 percent above league average offensively and 30 percent better than the next hitter on the list, Alec Burleson.

– In addition to leading the Cardinals in wRC+, Contreras is No. 1 in onbase percentage, which is 40 points higher than any St. Louis regular.

– Contreras has the team’s No. 1 slugging percentage (.468) that’s 16 points above Burleson, who ranks second with a .452 slug.

– Contreras is way above every regular Cardinal with his 848 OPS – which is 86 points higher than Burleson, who ranks second at .762

– The Cardinals are 11th among NL teams in walks this season, but don’t blame Contreras. He has the best walk rate (12.6%) by a STL hitter this season.

– Despite playing in only 84 games because of injuries, Contreras is fourth-best on the Cardinals with 15 homers. And he’s drilled 17 doubles, which is fifth on the team.

Contreras’ only negative stat offensively is his .210 batting average with runners in scoring position. If you want to nitpick that, fine, because that .210 is a fact. But I’ve seen some junk online about how this latest Contreras injury could be a “silver lining” for the Cardinals because the team had a 24-16 record after the catcher was placed on the IL with a broken forearm on May 8.

Here’s why the Cardinals got to winning with Contreras missing: Alec Burleson, Masyn Winn, Brendan Donovan, Nolan Gorman, Lars Nootbaar, Paul Goldschmidt and Ivan Herrera all heated up at the same time. Nolan Arenado wasn’t effective offensively during this period, but the other Cardinals more than made up for it.

With Contreras down and out, seven St. Louis lineup regulars had an wRC+ that went above the league average of 100:

* Nootbaar, 65% above league average
Donovan, 43% above average
Burleson, 39% above average
Winn, 35% above average
Herrera, 22% above average
Goldschmidt, 5% above average
** Gorman, 2% above average.

Goldschmidt slugged .431, knocked in 20 runs and had 14 extra-base (including 8 homers) in 37 games. This wasn’t classic Goldschmidt, but during that time he was a much better version of Goldy than we’ve seen for most of 2024.

From May 10 through June 19 – a span of 34 games – Gorman clubbed 12 homers, slugged .549 and drove home 22 runs.

When Contreras started a game at catcher this season, the Cardinals were right around .500, which is in line with the starts made by rookies Herrera and Pedro Pages. OK, so what’s so freakin’ wonderful about that? Shouldn’t the Cardinals have a much better record with Contreras behind the plate? Answer: you’re looking at it the wrong way.

The Cardinals aren’t nearly as capable offensively without Contreras, period. Don’t be misled by their 24-16 record when he was lost for the first time this season.

The Cardinals had a winning record with Contreras on the mend because just about everybody in the lineup was rolling and delivering payoffs offensively. Other than that, when has that happened this season?

Accordingly, if the Cardinals have a winning record with Contreras down this time with a broken finger, it will be because other Redbirds locked in and got the job done instead of being liabilities.

This season, in plate appearances made as a catcher (and not at DH), Contreras has the best wRC+ in the majors at the position. His wRC+ as a catcher is 63 percent above league average offensively. And his hitting line when working at catcher is excellent, with a .291 average, .412 onbase percentage, and .525 slug. Few catchers can provide as much offensive impact as Contreras. So don’t be conned by some click-bait trolling that implies the Cardinals are somehow better off without Contreras.

OK, WHAT ABOUT CONTRERAS AND DEFENSE? This is a pertinent question, because Contreras struggled in a few areas in 2023, his first season with the Cardinals. But Contreras has improved in 2024. That doesn’t mean he’s a great catcher defensively, but he’s worked hard to polish his skills behind the plate – and compared to 2023, the results are more positive in 2024.

– Contreras is slightly below league average in pitch framing … but is a lot better than a year ago.

– He’s above average at blocking pitches.

– His throwing arm is rated among the top 15 in the majors.

– His pop time isn’t as good as Pages, but it’s better than Herrera’s.

– Caught-stealing rate: Contreras 23%, Pages 20%, Herrera 7%.

– Catcher ERA: Pages 4.00, Herrera 4.22, Contreras 4.23. I don’t see anything glaring there. Contreras has been behind the plate for 650 more plate appearances than Pages, and for 320 more plate appearances than Herrera. A larger sample size matters more, and there just isn’t that much of a gap between the three catchers.

What about individual starting pitchers?

This is an interesting debate. Among baseball analysts, there’s a difference of opinion on the validity of catcher ERA. That’s understandable, because so many factors go into it. Who is the pitcher? Is the pitcher on a roll, or in a slump? Is the pitcher aging, like Adam Wainwright in 2023 – or is the pitcher a rookie or inexperienced and still learning? How does the team play defense behind a pitcher?

Morning research:

+ When Sonny Gray pitches to Contreras this season, Gray’s ERA is an excellent 2.89. With Pages, it’s 5.62. With Herrera, it’s 4.44.

+ When Andre Pallante pitches to Contreras he has a 2.65 ERA. With Herrera it’s a 6.00 ERA. And it’s a 4.06 ERA with Peges.

+ With Contreras as his catcher this season, Miles Mikolas had a 3.66 ERA. But that Mikolas ERA is over 6.00 with Pages or Herrera catching.

+ Kyle Gibson has a 5.05 ERA with Contreras, and a 1.59 ERA with Pages. It could be that Gibson and Pages have something going and are in a positive synch; the pitcher-catcher thing goes like that some years and is nothing unusual. But just because Gibson has an inflated ERA with Contreras, it does mean Contreras stinks.

+ Lance Lynn has a 4.88 ERA with Contreras. Lynn’s ERA is much better (2.42) with Pages. But how much should we read into that? Lynn is inconsistent, and we never know what to expect from him, start to start. Lynn had been pitching on a sore knee for a time before he had to go on the IL. I don’t think that 4.88 is an indictment of how Contreras catches him. And with the new technology, pitchers have the option to call their own pitches.

With Contreras, any of his defensive flaws are relatively minor, because he compensates with his elite catcher-position offense. And yes, pitchers need run support. The Cardinals are 16-10 this season when Contreras drives in a run, 9-5 when he homers.

SONNY GRAY’S ROAD RAGE: It happened again Friday, when the Twins pounded Gray for two home runs and five earned runs in six innings. There’s no reason to tip-toe around this: Gray is a terrible pitcher on the road in 2024. And his home-road splits are preposterous.

At Busch Stadium, Gray has a 2.72 ERA, has allowed four home runs and opponents have slugged only .310 against him. Gray has been chipped for an average of 0.5 home runs per nine innings at Busch.

In 11 road starts, Gray has been ripped for a 5.62 ERA and 16 home runs, and opponents have blasted him for a .528 slug. Gray has been attacked for an average of 2.2 per nine innings in road starts.

When Gray works on the road, left-handed hitters have a .547 slug against him, and right-handed batters have slugged .508.

I don’t want to numb you with too many numbers here, but I looked into the performance of specific Gray pitches when he’s on the road. It ain’t handsome:

Four-seam fastball: six homers, .388 average, .837 slug and a 40.5 percent hard-hit rate.

Sinker: six homers, .289 average, .711 slug and a 59.3 percent hard-hit rate.

Cutter: two homers, .286 average, .524 slug, 47.5 percent hard-hit rate.

Changeup: Only one homer because he doesn’t use it as much as other pitches. Still, the results are awful: .353 average, .706 slug, 44 percent hard-hit rate.

Gray’s only effective pitch on the road is his sweeper. But he doesn’t throw it as often as he should. Gray keeps trying to defeat hitters with four-seamers and sinkers … and frankly, the approach is a disaster.

This season he’s thrown 377 four-seam fastballs and sinkers combined on the road. And putting together the offensive stats generated when he uses those pitchers, hitters have smashed their way to 12 homers in 94 at-bats – or a home run every 7.8 at-bats. And against the sinker or four-seamer they’ve hit .340 with a .777 slug and 48 percent hard-hit rate. This is one step above batting practice!

Now, then … Gray has used his sweeper pitch 182 times on the road this season and opponents are failing against it with a .171 average, .237 slug and a 60 percent strikeout rate. And the whiff-swing rate against the Gray sweeper is an astonishing 44.3 percent.

I don’t know. I’m an idiot, of course. But maybe the Cardinals and Gray should take a look at their pitch-selection choices on the road? Just a thought.

Among 86 major-league starters that have made at least 11 road starts this season, Gray ranks 82nd in ERA, 84th in opponents’ slugging percentage, and is tied for 84th in home runs allowed per nine innings.

I’ll be back with more, later this afternoon.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing. Here’s the link:

@TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link. There is a new one available for you today, Aug. 26.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: It Was A Good Week For The Cardinals, But Time Is Running Short, And Willson Contreras Is Out. Yikes. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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WEEKEND AT BERNIE’S

Hello again. It was a sleepy Saturday morning for me, which I needed. But after drinking an extra coffee, and watching a little college football, I’m ready to write.

SCOREBOARD: CARDINALS 6, TWINS 1

Let’s review …

THE BASICS: Friday’s victory gave the Cardinals their third straight win for the first time since taking four in a row from June 20-24 … the Cardinals pulled themselves up to .500 (64-64) and hadn’t been there since Aug. 13 … the Cardinals still trail first-place Milwaukee by 10 games in the NL Central and remained five games behind the Braves and the No. 3 wild-card chair. The Cardinals have made some progress. They’re now even with the Giants (64-64) in the wild-card standings. The only team between the Cardinals and the No. 3 pod are the Mets, who lead St. Louis by 2 and a ½ games. That said, FanGraphs gives the Cardinals a slim 4 percent chance of making the playoffs.

WHAT I LIKED ABOUT FRIDAY’S WIN

1. Starting pitcher Andre Pallante allowed five singles, two walks and a run in seven innings. Pallante struck out five. He induced 14 ground balls overall, 10 that were converted into outs. Pallante allowed seven runners in the first two innings but escaped the trap by getting a double-play grounder in the first, and a ground-ball force out at home in the second inning. His poised pitching limited the Twins to one early run. And over Pallante’s final five innings the Twins went 1 for 16 against him, and he retired 13 in a row to finish his start. Pallante has the team’s best starting-pitcher ERA (3.52) in 14 starts since moving into the rotation on May 29. Pallante has a superb 1.83 ERA over 19.2 innings in his last three starters.

2. The trend of improved starting pitching. Pallante’s performance continued a positive upturn by STL starting pitchers. In their last six games, Cards starters have combined for a 2.25 ERA and haven’t given up more than two runs in an assignment. This is an important development. In the first 14 games in August, STL starters had a 6.10 ERA and the team went 4-10. But with the starters coming through with that 2.25 ERA in the last six games, the Cardinals are 4-2.

3. The Cardinals kept busy and put pressure on the Twins. The Redbirds pecked away Friday with nine hits, nine walks and four stolen bases. The visitors were ambitious in running the bases, and the daring personality featured Willson Contreras stretching a single into a double in the fourth inning and teaming up with Brendan Donovan for a double steal later in the frame. Both men scored on a two-run double by Lars Nootbaar for a 3-1 lead.

I appreciated the resourcefulness displayed by the Cardinals on Friday. The Redbirds tied the score 1-1 after Victor Scott swiped second base and scored on a single by Masyn Winn. Later, in the eighth, the Cardinals extended their lead to 5-1 on a bases-loaded walk by Scott and a sac fly by Winn.

4. Lars Nootbaar stepped up with an impact night. Though he had been drawing some walks – always a good indicator – Noot went into Friday’s game with a .205 average and .282 slugging percentage in August. And he had delivered only two total RBIs in 40 at-bats. But Nootbaar was paramount in Friday’s win. He went 2 for 5 with that key two-run double. He singled and scored on a sac fly in the eighth. The Cardinals have been waiting patiently for Nootbaar to get going, and with one swing of the bat in Friday’s fourth inning, Noot plated as many RBIs (2) as he’d produced in his previous 18 games.

5. The Cardinals had contributions from many hitters. Brendan Donovan had a solo homer, two walks and two runs scored … Willson Contreras was 3 for 5 with a big run scored … Masyn had two hits and two RBIs … Victor Scott has a walk, steal and sac fly … six different Cardinals walked, including three by Luken Baker after he came into the game as a pinch-hitter for Matt Carpenter in the fourth.

WHAT I DIDN’T LIKE

1. Still stranding too many teammates. I was happy to praise the Cardinals for what they did well offensively in winning the series opener. But a familiar problem resurfaced: the Cardinals went 2 for 12 with runners in scoring position and left 10 runners on base. This season only four MLB teams have stranded more runners than St. Louis. Only 29 percent of the Cardinals baserunners have scored this season, which is tied for sixth worst in the majors. Friday, only two of the nine Cards who walked came around to score.

2. Paul Goldschmidt’s harsh recession continued. He went 0 for 4 with two strikeouts against the Twins, but did walk and steal a base. Goldy is batting .179 this month with four ground-ball double plays and has reached base on only 26 percent of his plate appearances.

When hitting with runners in scoring position this month, Goldschmidt is 2 for 21 (.091) with 10 strikeouts. For the season, Goldschmidt is batting .164 with a .224 slug with RISP and has struck out 31 percent of his plate appearances have been terminated by a strikeout.

Let’s look at where Goldschmidt stands in 2024 compared to his body of work from 2011 through 2023:

Batting average: .226 now … .293, first 13 years
Onbase pct: .286 now … .388, first 13 years
Slugging pct: .383 now … .519, first 13 years
OPS: .669 now … .908, first 13 years

From 2011 through 2023, Goldschmidt performed 42 percent above league average offensively per wRC+. But in 2024, he’s 12 percent below league average in wRC+. That’s a drop of 54 percent from Goldschmidt’s established body of work through his first 13 major-league seasons. Goldchmidt’s St. Louis contract expires after the season. He turns 37 on Sept. 10.

NEXT ON THE SKED

The Cardinals will go for their fourth consecutive win Saturday night, with Sonny Gray opposing Minnesota starter Pablo Lopez. After a poor three-plus months that left him with a 5.18 ERA through his first 18 starts of the season, Lopez has straightened out for a 2.79 ERA in his last eight assignments.

Thanks for reading and I hope you enjoy the rest of the weekend …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing. Here’s the link:

@TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Weekend At Bernie’s: Cardinals Win 3rd In A Row Behind Andre Pallante And A Resourceful Offense. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

The standings math is grim, but I don’t want to totally eliminate the Cardinals from playoff contention just yet. I’m not being naive here. I just respect the process. Cue up Lenny Kravitz: It Ain’t Over ’til It’s Over. I didn’t know Lenny was a Yogi Berra disciple, but I digress.

Can the Cardinals depend on their offense to pile up runs and victories? They have to get hot. They have to assemble winning streaks. They have to support their pitchers, and fire up a down-and-out fan base.

Good luck with all of that. During their one impressive run of success this season, the Cardinals went 33-18 but didn’t exactly pound the yarn out of the baseball. Over the 51 games the Cardinals averaged 4.6 runs. That’s above average, yes – but nothing sensational. They did somewhat better at producing runs with men in scoring position, but were still below league average in RISP conversions over that time.

So what, if anything, can be done to trigger this offense? We know that the Cardinals won’t be saved by miracle-working batting coaches. It’s up to the men with the bats. If they don’t hit, they’ll whiff at making the postseason. And even if the Redbirds do hit pitches and do damage, they’d still be a long way from hitting the lottery.

But I like to think about such things. And I have thoughts. These are pretty basic items. Nothing too fancy.

1. Cash in more runs. Duh. Genius suggestion! With runners in scoring position the 2024 Cardinals are more of a threat to themselves instead of opponents. They have a .227 average, .335 slugging percentage and .637 OPS in RISP situations. The first season of Bill DeWitt Jr.’s franchise ownership was back in 1996, and no Cardinal team has been this bad in getting runs in with men on base. And there’s no competition, either. Their RISP deliveries in 2024 are historically hideous. Since 1996, nothing in the team’s RISP area has been close to being this terrible. Is it possible to take something so rotten and suddenly make it beautiful? Probably not. But if there’s no improvement with RISP over the final 35 games, then the Cardinals will be a RIP team.

2. Do better against four-seam fastballs: the Cardinals are among the worst teams in the show at winning the stick vs. ball battle on four-seam heaters. They’re 23rd in batting average (.232), 25th in hard-hit rate, 28th in barrel rate, and 28th in slugging percentage. That is all.

3. Do better against cut fastballs: We know that the Cardinals do a poor job of hitting lefty pitchers. And that includes their right-handed batters. Here’s a big part of the problem, and it’s brutal: this season STL’s right-side batsmen have the worst batting average in the majors (.125) when a lefty throws them a cutter. Good grief.

4. Lars Nootbaar. Still waiting. What’s it going to be from here on out? His left-handed bat is supposed to provide power and a nice on-base percentage. He’s supposed to be a wheel in this offense, but it hasn’t worked out so well. Since returning from the IL on July 8, Nootbaar is hitting .226 with a .343 slug. His onbase percentage is an unremarkable .321. And Nootbaar has three doubles and three homers in 102 at-bats since returning. Here’s the worst part: the Cardinals can’t ignite if Nootbaar is feeble against right-handed pitchers. And since his July 8 return date, Nootbaar is hitting .192 with a .333 slug and .598 OPS vs. righties. Ugh.

5. Willson Contreras must power up. I’m a big fan of the hardwired catcher, but he’s been dormant in the power department. In his last 22 games, Contreras has a .217 average and is slugging .325. He has two homers in 83 at-bats over that time – and both deep shots came in the same game. After muscling for a .532 slug in July, Contreras has to find his way back there again.

6. Time for some Burly Ball, Part Two: Over the last month, Alec Burleson has two homers and a .337 slugging percentage in 108 plate appearances. The club needs the big man to give ‘em a blast.

7. The outfield is wretched offensively. Who can help? Hello? Anyone? To recap: Nootbaar isn’t getting much done, Burleson has slowed down, Jordan Walker was called up for about 15 minutes before the Cardinals sent him back to Memphis. Michael Siani – who was hitting for a good average – is on the IL. And the Cardinals don’t have Dylan Carlson to sit around anymore; he’s has an .804 OPS since being traded to the Rays. OK. Since the All-Star break, St. Louis outfielders (minus any DH at-bats) are hitting .237 with a .320 slug and .629 OPS. And get this: since the break, Cardinal outfielders have lofted four home runs in 325 at-bats. C’mon. And this may get worse because Brendan Donovan will be playing a lot of second base in the aftermath of Nolan Gorman’s flameout and subsequent demotion to Memphis.

8. A related note: the Cardinals need a lot more from Tommy Pham. And if he can get cranking, the outfield would receive a transfusion of offense. But after going 6 for 10 with a grand-slam homer and six RBIs in his first three games with the Cardinals, Pham has gone 7 for 46 (.152) with a .304 slug and six RBIs in 15 games.

9. Can Paul Goldschmidt get hot for a few weeks? Please? Maybe? Well. In his last 16 games, Goldy is batting .155 with a .234 OBP and .293 slug. And over that time he’s gone 9 for 58 (.155) with runners in scoring position. I do not intend to be disrespectful, but Luken Baker could probably do more than that.

10. Masyn Winn would help by getting on base more often. In theory, anyway. Look, Winn is one of the few Cardinals that have exceeded expectations in 2024. The fans love him. The Cardinals love him. And this is one tough dude; you don’t see him losing his confidence and going to pieces when he cools down. He just adjusts and kicks back in. That said, Winn has a .298 onbase percentage in 322 plate appearances as the leadoff man this season. Winn is improving, having provided a .318 leadoff onbase percentage since the start of July. But we’d like to see that increase even more to set up more frequent RBI opportunities for guys that follow him in the lineup. That’s the other challenge, though. As you may have heard, the Cardinals have a problem knocking in runs.

10a. Nolan Arenado is hitting for average, but a few more home runs would be swell.

That’s all I have for now.

Pardon my typos.

Thanks for reading and have a wonderful weekend.

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing. Here’s the link:

@TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link. We record a new one every Monday.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: Can The 2024 Cardinals’ Offense Be Saved? appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

Greetings! As you know by now, the Cardinals won their three-game series against Milwaukee. I give this relatively minor success a thumbs-up, especially since the Redbirds dropped the opener and had to take two consecutive games from the Brewers.

Task completed. Now what? Thanks for asking. I have three points to make as we get the latest Review underway …

1. If you want to know if winning this series changes my view of the Cardinals’ viability as a postseason contender, the answer is a firm “No.” They’re five games away from wild-card residency, have four teams ahead of them, and are down to 35 games remaining on the regular-season schedule.

The menu of games will soften after Sept. 4, but look at the teams they’ll play before then: 13 total games against Minnesota, San Diego, NY Yankees, and Milwaukee. The Yankees and Brewers lead their divisions, and the Padres and Twins currently hold wild-card tickets. The four teams have a combined winning percentage of .569 and are collectively 71 games over .500.

Of the next 13 contests only four (vs. the Padres) will be played at Busch Stadium. And as the Cardinals arrive in the Twin Cities for the weekend, they carry a 29-34 road record.

For the Cardinals to wriggle their way into a legitimate shot to qualify for the postseason, they can’t get blown out over the next 13 games. So there’s really no reason to gauge how they’ll do beyond Sept. 4 until we see how they do before Sept. 4.

2. For the Cardinals to emerge as a gutsy challenger from a longshot position, their pitching staff will have to contain a sequence of lively offense. Among the 30 MLB teams, the Yankees (2nd), Twins (6th), Padres (10) and Brewers (11th) comfortably rank above the league average in runs scored per game. The Redbird pitchers did an admirable job of quieting the Milwaukee offense at Busch Stadium this week. But that can’t be a one-off deal. Going forward, St. Louis pitching must be firm in preventing runs.

3. The Cardinals will need a blitz of offense to get through the next 13 games with a winning record – and then some. Their hitters can’t dillydally. There’s no time for that. But does anyone really expect an all-out assault from this Cardinals’ offense in conflicts with four pitching staffs that are better than league average in limiting runs? That’s why the St. Louis pitchers have to deliver. To succeed, the Cardinals will have to win a good share of low-scoring games. In their only loss to the Brewers, the Cardinals allowed three runs. The game was there for the taking. And in the final game of the Milwaukee series, Miles Mikolas and three relievers teamed for a 3-0 shutout. If the pitching collapses over the next 13 competitions, the Cardinals will likely end up in grave trouble.

For the Cardinals to have a chance of winnowing the gap in the wild-card race, it’s imperative for their pitchers to perform at a consistently high level the rest of the way. The St. Louis offense is too sketchy to count on, and a precariously narrow path to playoff to genuine contention can only be kept open by strict performances by their pitchers. It’s a lot to ask for, let alone expect. Before the Brewers came to town, the Cardinal pitchers ranked 23rd in the majors with a 5.10 ERA in August. They improved on that to win the series but can’t relapse.

Let us proceed …

ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT: Thursday’s win over the Brewers gave the Cardinals a 3-1 record in their last four home series, with wins over Texas, Tampa Bay and Milwaukee and a loss to the LA Dodgers. The Cardinals also lost one game to the Mets, who were in town to play a makeup game left from a rainout in May.

The Cardinals are 7-12 (.368) in August and have averaged only 3.6 runs per game for the month … Even with the nice series win over the Brewers, the Cardinals are 3-7 in their last 10 games … the Redbirds are 10-16 (.385) since July 24, and 15-22 (.405) in their last 37 games.

POSTSEASON PICTURE, STILL CLOUDY: Taking two of three from the Brewers didn’t do much for STL’s playoff odds. As of Friday morning FanGraphs gave the Cardinals an 0.6 percent possibility of winning the NL Central, a 2.9% shot at seizing a wild-card spot, and a 3.4% probability of making the playoffs. Eight NL teams have better odds to qualify for the postseason than St. Louis.

OBLIGATORY STANDINGS CHECK: The second-place Cardinals still trail the first-place Brewers by 10 games in the NL Central. The Cards are five games out of the third wild-card placement, currently occupied by the Braves. But in the wild-card pursuit the Redbirds also trail the Mets by 3 and ½ games, the Giants by one game. Back to the NL Central: the Cardinals lead third-place Cubs by a half- game, the enigmatic Reds by 1 and ½ games, and are three games ahead of the last-place Pirates.

NOLAN ARENADO, A GO-GO: In the Milwaukee series the STL third baseman went 5 for 13 (.385) and thwacked the Brewers for two doubles, a grand slam and five RBIs. Arenado provided a 2-0 lead for the Cardinals with an RBI single in the bottom of the seventh, increasing STL’s win expectancy to 94 percent. Arenado is putting together his finest month of the season, leading the Cardinals in batting average (.315) onbase percentage (.367), slugging (.507), OPS (.874), and RBIs (15) for August. No other Cardinal has driven in more than eight runs this month.

MASYN WINN: Just wanted to mention that he went 6 for 15 (.400) against Milwaukee. The rookie’s wRC+ for August is 23 percent above league average offensively. That’s second-best on the team to Arenado this month.

TIP OF THE OL, BALLCAP: As I mentioned earlier, the St. Louis pitchmen did an outstanding job of keeping a productive Milwaukee offense down. The Brewers scored six runs in the second game (and lost) but managed three runs in the first game and were shut-out in the series finale.

Even with the six-run yield in the middle game, the Cardinals pitching staff had an overall 2.89 ERA in 28 innings, and didn’t allow a home run the entire time. The Brewers had only six extra-base hits in 114 plate appearances during the series.

In their first seven games against St. Louis this season, the Brewers went 6-1, averaged 6 runs per game, slugged .435 and generated a .780 OPS.

In the three games at Busch this week, the Crew averaged 3 runs, and had a lowly .306 slug and .631 OPS.

Cards starters Erick Fedde, Kyle Gibson and Miles Mikolas combined for a 2.12 ERA in the three games. The St. Louis bullpen had some turbulence, with a terrible 17.4 percent walk rate in the series, and that led to a 4.09 ERA.

Pardon the nitpick, but the starting pitchers didn’t strike many Brewer hitters out (only 14.7%) and issued too many walks (10.3%) The relievers and the starters had to work their way out of trouble – and came through for the most part. But the underlying vulnerability can be dangerous.

There were other pitching positives in this series victory. Closer Ryan Helsley had a win and a save, shutting the Brewers down in both St. Louis wins. Hels Bells leads the majors with 39 saves and hasn’t been nicked for a run in his last five appearances.

In Wednesday’s 10-6 rollercoaster ride, Cards relievers recovered from setbacks to hold the Brewers scoreless over the final 2 and ½ innings. The relievers stepped up Thursday for three blank innings to complete a shutout initiated by Mikolas. In the game that decided the series, Andrew Kittredge, JoJo Romero and Helsley snuffed any real chance of a Milwaukee comeback.

NOTES ON MR. MIKOLAS: His variety of pitches had the Brewers stuck on the ground Thursday. The right-hander’s 12 ground-ball outs were coaxed on the slider (5), four-seam fastball (4), sinker (2) and curve (1).

Mikolas was flicked for two hits and a walk in six innings. After the Brewers had a one-out double and single in the first inning, they were out of luck against Mikolas. He retired the 16 of the final 17 hitters he faced, with the only runner reaching on a walk. Mikolas entered the start with a 5.41 ERA and left it with a 5.19 ERA.

NEXT ON THE SKED: It’ll be righthanders galore this weekend in Minneapolis. All six scheduled starters are righties. All times listed are STL time.

Friday, 7:10 pm: Andre Pallante vs. David Festa (4.69 ERA).

Saturday, 6:10 pm: Sonny Gray vs. Pablo Lopez (4.47 ERA).

Sunday, 1:10 pm: Erick Fedde vs. Zebby Matthews (3.60 ERA).

I’ll be back with more, later.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing. Here’s the link:

@TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link. We’ll be recording a new one on Monday morning.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: Can’t Trust The Offense. That Puts Pressure On The Cardinals’ Pitchers. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

Wednesday evening at Busch Stadium, the St. Louis Cardinals competed with urgency and tenacity in a way that made them endearing and fun to watch. And the effort pushed them to outlast the first-place Brewers for a 10-6 victory in 10 innings.

Obviously, this kind of thing hasn’t happened enough in 2024, and the impact of the failure has visual proof in the large number of empty seats at the home ballyard.

The Redbirds have sapped the energy and dulled the enthusiasm of their fans on too many days and nights. It’s been a strange season, broken into three distinct sections so far.

1. The Cardinals started off the season by going 15-24 for a .385 winning percentage that ranked 13th among the 15 National League teams.

2. Beginning May 12, the Cards turned into a different team, winning 33 of the next 51 games for a .647 winning percentage that was No. 1 in the NL over that time.

3. Ah. But since their 33-18 surge stalled, the Cardinals are 14-22 for a .389 winning percentage that’s tied with Miami for the worst in the NL since July 10. And in the majors, only the White Sox have been a more depressing loser (5-30!) than the Cardinals in the aftermath of the only STL fun run of the season.

My philosophy has always been to praise when warranted and criticize when warranted. And just because the Cardinals have spent most of August in a state of grogginess, I see no reason to withhold appreciation for the game we watched last night. The Cardinals have a 62-64 record and are still a longshot horse in the wild-card race. I know this. I write about this. I write about all of the bad stuff on a frequent basis. But I enjoyed this 10-6 win and wanted to write about that, too.

The boys put on a good show in overcoming two late deficits to upset the Brewers. The Cardinals had a 2-0 lead and gave it up. They fell behind 4-2 and tied it 4-4 on a pinch-hit, two-run homer by the new arrival Luken Baker. The Brewers rebounded to reclaim a 6-4 lead in the eighth, but the Cardinals worked counts and drew walks to rally and even the score in the ninth … then broke the Brewers to win it on a dramatic swing by Nolan Arenado that produced a theatrical, walk-off grand-slam home run. Now, that’s how to set off fireworks.

I have one complaint: the Cardinals needed to do something like this more often this season. This was only their third win of the season when trailing after eight innings. The time is winding down on the season. If the Cardinals want to fight back and make a late charge, we’ll have to see a string of big wins against good teams in a brutish remaining schedule.

The Cardinals can’t wish for hope. They can’t just talk about still having a chance to make the playoffs. They have to prove it by doing it. They have to go get it. If the Redbirds lose Thursday’s day game and drop the series to Milwaukee, then Wednesday’s encouraging comeback will be reduced to noisy nothingness.

ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT: The Cardinals (62-64) are 6-12 in August, 8-12 since the trade deadline, and 2-7 in the last nine games. But they’re also 2-2 in the last four … with Wednesday’s wild win, the Cardinals are 11 games behind division-leading Milwaukee. The Redbirds moved back into second place in the NL Central, a half-game above the Cubs and Reds … the Cardinals gained ground on the wild-card track and now trail No. 3 seed Atlanta by five games. But the Cardinals can’t set sight on the Braves without moving ahead of the Giants and Mets.

PLAYOFF ODDS: Beating the Brewers did little to increase the Cards’ chances of making the playoffs. According to FanGraphs, St. Louis has a 2.7 percent shot at a wild-card permit, and a 3.1% probability of wandering into the postseason. FanGraphs projects the Cardinals to go 18-18 over the final 36 games for a final record of 80-82.

NOLAN ARENADO: He’s been collecting a lot of hits, but without generating much power. The third baseman did both on Wednesday, cranking out three hits including the winning grand-salami. Since July 31, Arenado’s .329 batting average is tied for ninth among NL regulars. And he has a .518 slug with five doubles and three homers and a .900 OPS over his last 26 games.

In August, Arenado leads the Cardinals in batting average (.319), onbase percentage (.373), slugging (.522), OPS (.895) and RBIs (14). And his wRC+ for the month puts him 51 percent above league average offensively.

THE TROUBLE WITH THE CURVE: To fire off the winning rocket, Arenado crushed a juicy 1-2 curveball flipped by Brewers right-hander Trevor Megill. This season Arenado has a .294 batting average and .706 slugging percentage when putting a curve in play. Megill has a pretty good curve this season but Arenado was on it at the right time last night.

BAKER: HOME-RUN MAKER: In his first game with the Cardinals this season, Luken Baker announced himself by clubbing the tying two-run shot in the seventh. Nice move by Cards manager Oli Marmol to send Baker in to pinch hit. Baker, who bats from the right side, had destroyed left-handed pitching for 14 home runs and a .727 slugging percentage at Triple A this season. Baker hit three home runs in his 35 games with the Cardinals last season but slugged only .209. The shot off lefty Brewers reliever Bryan Hudson was Baker’s first career big-league homer against a LH pitcher. Baker slammed 126 home runs in 576 minor-league games in the St. Louis system, but that power hasn’t really surfaced during his 34-game MLB audition. Wednesday’s home run was hugely important in the win; perhaps that will get Baker going.

GETTING IT DONE IN THE NINTH: The Cardinals put up some great at-bats in the ninth inning to carry the game into extra innings. Most notable was a double by Jose Fermin and walks by Lars Nootbaar, Matt Carpenter and Tommy Pham. The consecutive walks by Carpenter and Pham delivered the two runs that erased a 6-4 deficit. I like the guys who got it done. Fermin was just recalled from Memphis and made an immediate impact. Nootbaar has struggled this season but it’s a good sign when he coaxes a walk. And then you had Carpenter and Pham, two former Cardinals who reunited with the team this year. Carpenter was signed as a free agent and Pham was acquired from the White Sox at the trade deadline. It’s a little extra special when these two guys – who love being Cardinals – come through.

GETTING TO DEVIN WILLIAMS: When healthy, Williams is arguably the best closer in the majors. The native St. Louisan went after the Cardinals in each of the first two games of the series, and the Redbirds unexpectedly got the best of him. In 1 and ⅔ innings over the two games, Williams was touched for three hits, walked four Cardinals, and allowed two earned runs for a 10.80 ERA. That’s rare for Williams. His control was off Wednesday night, but Nootbaar, Carpenter and Pham stayed disciplined, didn’t chase pitches, and prevailed in the tough matchup by drawing crucial walks.

KYLE GIBSON: He kept the Cardinals in the game by competing well through 5 and ⅓ innings. The right-hander gave up seven hits and two walks but limited the damage to two runs. Gibson helped himself by striking out five Brewers, and lowered his ERA to 4.22.

RYAN HELSLEY: He handled the top of the 10th inning and stranded the designated Manfred Man runner at second base by getting two strikeouts and a ground out. The Cardinals erupted for four runs in the bottom half of the inning and Helsley earned the victory. He now has five wins and leads the majors with 38 saves. Helsley hasn’t allowed a run in his last four appearances, and struck out 33.3 percent of his batters faced in four innings. With either a save or an official win, Helsley has played a direct role in 69 percent of STL’s 62 wins this season.

NEXT ON THE SKED, TODAY: Milwaukee’s Freddy Peralta opposes Miles Mikolas. First pitch scheduled for 1:15 pm STL time. It’s imperative for Mikolas to do better and give his team a chance to win the series. Mikolas has a 6.71 ERA in his last 10 starts and a 5.41 ERA for the season. St. Louis hitters will have to do something with Peralta’s four-seam fastball. This season the Cards are 7 for 30 against the pitch (.233) with a 31.3 percent strikeout rate.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing. We’re doing well, more than 2,500 subscribers and 33,000 views on my first14 videos.

with Here’s the link:

@TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: The Cardinals Finally Played Desperate Baseball To Come Back And Beat The Brewers. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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This just in: The Cardinals are still the Cardinals.

After rushing to give Jordan Walker a return ticket to Triple A Memphis because he didn’t hit like Rogers Hornsby in his 12 plate appearances during a peculiar one-week stay with the Cardinals, the front office finally noticed that Nolan Gorman was having, um, difficulties at the plate.

On Wednesday, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak reunited Walker and Gorman as teammates.

In Memphis.

One of my favorite towns, Memphis. Home of Blues, Soul, Rock ‘N’ Roll – and failing young hitters sent to Tennessee by the Cardinals to rebuild their plate approach, swing, and confidence. swings. Gorman and Walker can wolf down some barbeque, watch the famous ducks parade at The Peabody Hotel, and maybe make time to visit Graceland.

Hey, it’s a nice retreat after spending time at the Heartbreak Hotel in St. Louis – aka Busch Stadium.

The 2024 Cardinals offense was to be centered around Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Gorman and Walker. Not entirely, or course. A deep lineup would be fortified by Willson Contreras, Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar, etc.

But most of all there would be a strong link connecting the established stars to the rising stars. That was the plan. And the plan went to smithereens.

Goldy and Arenado smashed into the aging curve, sooner and harder than anticipated. And that’s dangerous and ominous.

In 2023, Walker and Gorman combined for 42 home runs, 36 doubles and a .462 slugging percentage. Gorman was about to turn 24. Walker was nearing age 22.

After having two big pillars in place in Goldschmidt and Arenado, the Cardinals would add two more pillars in Walker and Gorman. Strength for the future!

The old dudes got older in a hurry and there’s no way to turn back the clock. The young dudes didn’t age and mature fast enough, and there is no way to press a button and make all of their slumps disappear.

Wait, can’t the team’s batting coaches get Walker and Gorman back on track?

That’s funny.

What batting coaches?

It’s sad to say, but Walker and Gorman will get more guidance and care from the Triple A staff.

As for Goldschmidt and Arenado … Well, there’s no way to undo the aging process. There is no fountain of youth at Kiener Plaza.

In 2022, Goldy-Nado combined for 65 homers and 218 RBIs, and both had a slugging percentage well above .500 Goldschmidt won the NL MVP award and Arenado finished third.

In 2024, with only 37 games remaining, Goldschmidt and Arenado have combined for 32 homers and 104 RBIs, and both proud men are slugging under .400.

The Cardinals have gotten themselves stuck in a weird place, somewhere in the generational divide.

They had the young and the restless in Gorman and Walker.

They had the old and powerless in Goldschmidt and Arenado.

The result is a St. Louis offense that ranks next to last in the National League in runs scored per game. It is an offense that couldn’t hit effectively with runners in scoring even if the home-plate umpire agreed to call no strikes.

What the Cardinals have done with Walker is baseball malpractice. But with Gorman, it’s been the opposite. This particular patient was whiffing and wheezing – and this baseball operation left him to wither and worsen.

Since June 5, Gorman has been on the short list of the worst hitters in the majors. Here’s where Gorman ranked among 241 MLB hitters that had at least 150 plate appearances since that date:

• .170 batting average, No. 236
• .239 onbase percentage, No. 239
• .291 slugging percentage, No. 236
• .511 Onbase + Slugging, No. 235
• Strikeout rate: 40.3 percent, No. 241

Per wRC+, Gorman’s offensive performance since June 5 was 58 percent below the league average. (And yes, again, the team let this continue.) And his five home runs during the corresponding time was tied for 157th on that list of 241 hitters. The left-handed slugger was increasingly overmatched by right-handed pitchers.

There’s a helluva lot to fix here. Here’s a sampling of the troubles, with all stats starting on June 5 and ending with Gorman’s merciful demotion.

+ Four-seam fastballs: .136 average, .46.3% strikeout rate, 36.5% whiff-swing rate.

+ Offspeed pitches: 133 average, 35.5% strikeout rate, 47% whiff-swing rate.

+ Curveballs: 53.3% strikeout rate.

+ Sliders/sweepers: .159 average, 50% strikeout rate, 47.4% whiff-swing rate.

The Cardinals let Gorman’s unnerving freefall go on for a stretch that encompassed two months and 16 days.

“Obviously, it’s a game of production up here and at some point, you’ve got to consistently produce, or we have to find someone who can,” Mozeliak told reporters Wednesday.

Way too slow on this, Mo. You guys were too quick in giving up on Walker, and too slow in realizing that Gorman was a desperate young hitter, desperately in need of a mental break from chronic failure. And this won’t dispel the belief that the Cardinals have no clue what they’re doing with young hitters. And before anyone hollers, “what about Alec Burleson,” I give you two words: Matt Carpenter. He’s the guy who unlocked Burly’s power with excellent advice. Perhaps Carpenter can take over as hitting coach.

Gorman’s hitting-clinic sessions at Memphis will should help him. This overdue move will definitely help the Cardinals. Gorman wasn’t turning into a semi-automatic out, posting a horrid .209 onbase percentage and .220 slug in his last 13 games. And he struck out in five of his last 11 at-bats.

This opening means more second-base time for Brendan Donovan, and more outfield time and at-bats for Tommy Pham. And the Cardinals may replot center field by using Lars Nootbaar there more often. The time away from the Cardinals will be healthy for Gorman. Who knows? He may even encounter a coach down there who can help him identify pitches and get on top of high fastballs. See? I’m trying to be hopeful.

This much doesn’t change: the organization’s startling neglect of Gorman was just as awful as the haste to shove Walker back to Memphis.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing. Here’s the link:

https://www.youtube.com/@TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie On The Cardinals: Walker And Gorman Are Teammates In Memphis. That Ain’t The Way It Was Supposed To Be. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

Bases loaded, one out, Cardinals down by a run, with Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Gorman coming up. And you know what happened next – because of course it did.

Goldy, strikeout.

Gorman, strikeout.

Goodnight from Busch Stadium.

On the same day the confusing and confusing Cardinals demoted Jordan Walker to Triple A Memphis, they demoted themselves into third place in the NL Central with a 3-2 loss to the Brewers.

On the same day Walker was sent in circles again – St. Louis-Memphis, St. Louis-Memphis, St. Louis-Memphis – the Cardinals circled the drain as another season slowly drips into the underside.

And now Walker will have some company down in Memphis town.

The Cardinals demoted Gorman on Wednesday.

The beat goes on … and so do the beatdowns.

The Cardinals are slip-sliding away at 61-64. They’re a joyless 1-7 in their last eight games. As the energy wanes, the Redbirds have won just five of 17 games in August. They’ve come out with only 13 wins in the 35 games since July 10 for a .371 winning percentage. That ranks 29th overall, with only the execrable White Sox floating below them in the gutter.

If you watched Tuesday’s game at Busch Stadium – either there or on TV – you saw a small crowd that weakened in numbers as the night dragged on. In this ballpark, misery does not have much company.

The offense is close to bankruptcy. The stadium is a haunted house. Fans must subside on the memories of a dimmed glory. It’s sad because this was the extraordinary place where Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina, Tony La Russa, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Jim Edmonds, Matt Holliday, Scott Rolen and other legends roamed to hunt championships in big October games.

And now? The sea of red is a sea of dread. Strikeout by Goldy. Strikeout by Gorman. Another strikeout for the franchise. Another deflating defeat. One hard blow after another, choking the enthusiasm.

St. Louis ownership and management still try to market nostalgia, pushing the past, hoping to reconnect to hearts that were so in love with this franchise. But this is a difficult sales pitch now. The worn-down fan base is more inclined to shelter at home or retreat to the Busch Stadium exits. They no longer believe in this baseball promised land. Cardinal Nation is colder now.

This a boring team. It has no real stars. It has no plan, no personality, no purpose. There is no reason to have confidence in the front-office operation, and we just don’t know where this doddering team is going in the future.

Watching Tuesday’s presentation, I sat back in my chair and wondered about something out loud – talking to myself in a darkened living room. I thought of chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak.

Do they realize what they have done?

Do they see all of the empty seats?

Do they realize that they controlled something precious and wonderful, something that made so many people happy – and let it slip away?

Do they feel remorse?

Do they understand the damage that’s been done to their bond with a passionate fan base in a great baseball town?

Why did it have to come to this?

Here’s to better days, my friends. I just wish I could tell you when the good times will return.

ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT: The Cardinals trail the division-kingpin Brewers by 12 games … the Cubs (62-64) have nudged past St. Louis and into second place, a half–game above the Redbirds … the Cardinals are 6 games out of the third wild-card spot, currently held by the Braves. Not only do the Cardinals have to chase down the Braves, but they must also move ahead of the teams that are closer in the wild-card standings: Cubs, Giants and Mets. And the Cardinals must hold off the Reds (61-65) and Pirates (59-66).

The FanGraphs playoff odds give the Cardinals a 2.0 percent chance of landing in a wild card spot … the Cardinals are 1-7 against the Brewers this season and have a 17-23 record against their division rivals … since the start of last season the Cardinals are 38-54 against the Brewers, Cubs, Reds and Pirates for a grotesque .413 winning percentage in NL Central games … the Cardinals have a 67-76 record (.468) at Busch Stadium since the start of the 2023 season … the Redbirds have a minus 28 run differential while going 5-12 so far in August.

ERICK FEDDE, UNDERWHELMING: He wasn’t the reason why the Cardinals lost Tuesday’s game. The right-hander lasted 5 and ⅔ innings and yielded two runs. With a better offense, Fedde’s outing could have ended up on the winning side. That said, Fedde walked four of his 24 batters faced (16.6%) and that inflated his pitch count to 95. In four starts since coming to STL from the White Sox at the trading deadline, Fedde has a 4.98 ERA and the Cardinals are 1-3 in his assignments.

St. Louis starting pitchers rank 28th in August with a 5.53 ERA and have only four quality starts in 17 games. The Cards starters have a 5.08 ERA during the team’s 13-22 crash that began July 10.

STATE OF THE ST. LOUIS OFFENSE

1. In losing seven of their last eight games, the Cardinals have averaged 2.6 runs per game, hit .221 overall, and batted .167 with a 32.7% strikeout rate with runners in scoring position. The Cards have scored three or fewer runs in six of the last eight games.

2. In August the Cardinals are last in the majors in batting average (.151), onbase percentage (.239), and slugging rate (.185) with runners in scoring position. In a related note the Cards have only 25 RBIs with runners in scoring position this month; 13 major-league teams have at least twice as many as that this month.

3. This month Alec Burleson, Willson Contreras, Masyn Winn, Tommy Pham, Paul Goldschmidt, Brendan Donovan, Nolan Gorman, Lars Nootbaar and Victor Scott have combined for 9 hits in 92 at-bats (.098) with runners in scoring position. I’m sort of speechless.

4. The St. Louis offense is dormant this season for many reasons but this stat really screams at me: in 287 combined plate appearances with runners in scoring position in 2024, Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Gorman and Lars Nootbaar have collectively batted .165 with a 32% strikeout rate. Horrendous.

5. Among 287 hitters that have at least 60 plate appearances with runners in scoring position this season, Goldschmidt, Gorman and Nootbaar are each ranked in the bottom seven in batting average. And their strikeout-totals rankings are nearly as bad.

NOLAN ARENADO STAT OF THE DAY: With the home-run explosiveness receding in his age 33 season, it got me to thinking about … singles. Not exactly a scoop, but Arenado is hitting a lot of ’em in 2024. Going into Wednesday, Arenado’s 89 singles were tied for 10th most among major-league hitters. OK, let’s take another step with this.

The percentage of Arenado’s total hits that were singles in his four seasons as a Cardinal:

2021: 53%, age 30
2022: 55.2%, age 31
2023: 63.7%, age 32
2024: 74%, age 33

I have nothing to add.

DYLAN CARLSON STAT OF THE DAY: In August the former St. Louis outfielder has done very well for Tampa Bay, batting .286 with a .375 onbase percentage, .524 slug and .899 OPS. Carlson also has three homers and nine RBIs.

I put my strangely curious mind to work to see how Carlson’s August numbers compare to the numbers posted by St. Louis lineup regulars this month.

Batting average: the only Redbirds with a higher average than Carlson’s .286 this month are Brendan Donovan and Nolan Arenado.

Onbase percentage: Carlson’s .375 OBP is better than any St. Louis regular.

Slugging percentage: Carlson’s .524 slug is higher than any Cardinal regular.

Onbase + slugging: Carlson’s .899 OPS is superior to that of any STL regular.

Home runs: Carlson has three. That’s one fewer than Masyn Winn (4) and as many as Goldschmidt (3) and Burleson (3). This month Carlson has more home runs than everyone else including Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras, Tommy Pham, Lars Nootbaar, Nolan Gorman, Brendan Donovan and Victor Scott II.

RBIs: Carlson has nine; the only Cardinal with more than that this month is Arenado with 10.

And since I’m mentioning former Cardinals: Burleson leads the team with 21 home runs this season. Paul DeJong has 21, and Tyler O’Neill has launched 22.

NOTES ON A SCORECARD

– In his last 15 games, Goldschmidt is batting .151 with a .237 OBP, .302 slug and has grounded into four double plays.

– Tommy Pham is 1 for 21 with seven strikeouts in his last eight games.

– In his first two games for the Dodgers, Tommy Edman went 2 for 7 with a double, run scored, and two strikeouts.

– Matt Carpenter has done a fine job as a bench guy for the Cardinals this season. There’s nothing wrong with a .261 batting average, .336 onbase percentage, .414 slug and .750 OPS. His OPS+ is nine percent above the league average.

– Carpenter’s two-run pinch homer in the eighth inning cut Milwaukee’s lead to 3-2 and gave the Cardinals a chance for a comeback win. In the first seven innings Tuesday, the Cardinals went 1 for 22 with a walk and did not have a plate appearance with a runner in scoring position. Brewers starter Frankie Montas pitched seven shutout innings.

– Since making his season debut on July 28, St. Louisan Devin Williams is as nasty as ever despite missing several months with a back injury. The Cardinals gave Williams a fight in the ninth Tuesday, getting two hits and receiving an intentional walk to load the bases. Williams powered his way through the threat with the consecutive punch-outs of Goldschmidt and Gorman for his fifth save. In eight appearances since making it back, Williams has a 1.13 ERA with a 45 percent strikeout rate.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. And thank you for subscribing. Here’s the link:

https://www.youtube.com/@TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: The Staggering Cardinals, Empty Seats At Busch Stadium, And A Franchise In Disrepair. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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Imagine what it would be like for Jordan Walker if he’d been drafted by an organization that knew what the heck it was doing in the development of players. And as Walker returns to the minors after spending a weird and wasted week with the cray-cray Cardinals, he should think of the more pleasant times ahead.

Unless something big and bold and decisive takes place to change the trajectory of this troubled franchise, Walker one day will be dealt to a more astute organization that knows how to develop young hitters. An organization with an enlightened staff, and all of the available technology. An organization that can find ways to pull struggling youngsters out of slumps and get them back on track. It won’t be a cuckoo, outdated operation that’s been in place and stagnating for way too long.

Unless new front-office leadership takes over and installs a more capable and stable manager and puts together a more industrious and innovative coaching staff in time to rescue his career, Walker can look forward to becoming a member of The Fresh Start Club. And this will liberate him from the madness in St. Louis.

Make room, Randy Arozarena, and Dylan Carlson, and Adolis Garcia, and Tyler O’Neill and Lane Thomas. I’m sure I’m forgetting about another six or eight members of The Fresh Start Club … but that doesn’t change my message: there is hope for you, young Jordan Walker. There is hope.

Walker wasn’t drafted by a team that knew how to guide his career with expertise. He was selected in the 2020 draft by the Cardinals. He arrived just as a declining, increasingly dysfunctional franchise was slowly but surely making its way to express check-in line at The Loony Tunes Hotel.

Before Tuesday’s home game against the first-place Brewers – who must be laughing – the Cardinals made a sequence of roster moves.

– Walker was optioned to Memphis after spending seven days with the Cardinals after his upbeat promotion from Triple A Memphis on Aug. 12. He started three of the team’s six games and saw action in another. The big call-up

– Summoned to St. Louis in the switch-out was Luken Baker, the hulking first baseman who has heavy right-handed power. He’s larruped 32 home runs at Triple A Memphis this season after crushing 33 homers there in 2023.

– Matt Carpenter was reinstated from the 10-day Injured List.

– To accommodate Carpenter’s return, the Cardinals released the ancient infielder Brandon Crawford. Through no fault of his own, Crawford occupied a spot on the Cardinals’ 26-man roster that could have been utilized in any number of more valuable ways. Crawford departs with a .169 batting average. But, he was a leader or something, right? What was the point of all of this?

And what was the point of bringing Walker back to St. Louis? After an extremely challenging spring and summer, Walker had finally found his misplaced hitting talent. He hit up a storm for a couple of weeks, and looked ready to reenter a wheezing St. Louis lineup. The big man, still only 22, would resume a career that still has so much promise.

That’s when manager Oli Marmol hatched a plan to reduce Walker to a platoon gig. Walker would be in the lineup against left-handed starting pitchers. He would sit on the bench when the other side started a right-handed starting pitcher.

This made no sense for several reasons. I went over these last week, but it’s a good idea to revisit the short list.

1) If you’re going to put an end to Walker’s relentless assault on Triple A pitching just when he’d finally found what he was looking for, he had to play every day for the Cards. He can’t sit around, have a disruption in routine, lose the rhythm and the timing and the confidence and all of that good stuff. Walker needs reps, reps, reps, reps. Otherwise, keep him in Memphis.

2) Walker is a right-handed hitter that’s ineffective against lefty pitchers. And the easy-to-find stats show us that Walker is more robust against righty pitchers. Compared to his performance vs. lefties, Walker’s OPS is 78 points higher than when attacking righthanders. More power. Higher batting average. More everything. So Marmol came up with this swell idea to have Walker on call to face lefties … even though Walker doesn’t hit lefties. Not yet, anyway.

3) Meanwhile, with the Cardinals offense choking on its own exhaust fumes, Walker should have had a regular spot in the lineup because he can blast righthanders. In 356 big-league at-bats against RHP, Walker has 19 doubles, 12 homers, and a .447 slugging percentage. What, the Cardinals are so loaded offensively that they had no place for Walker in the lineup? The guy who ended up with really terrific numbers by the end of a tumultuous rookie season? Seriously: is Marmol feeling OK? Is he seeking conflict?

4) If Marmol wanted a right-handed batter coming off the bench who could do some damage, then why not ask the front office to give the assignment to Luken Baker? Baker didn’t do much with an expanded major-league trial last summer, but it’s too soon to write him off. At Triple A this year Baker has walloped lefty pitchers for a wicked .698 slugging percentage, and cranked a home run every 8.9 at-bats. These numbers warrant more of a look at the big-league level. Baker can be used as a DH when the opponents go with a left-handed starter. He can also play first base. But this is someone to tab for a part-time, assignment specific role. It was ridiculous to try and squeeze Walker into such a confining spot when he needs to play.

Marmol’s stance in this matter was counter to Mozeliak’s strong and consistent belief in playing young players if you think enough of them to put them in the big leagues. There’s no need to rush a developing hitter up here to a part-timer. This does nothing for his hitting progress in real time – and nothing for his hitting advancement in the long term. The idea was goofy from the start.

It sure looks like Marmol defied Mozeliak. Hey, if you want to swallow the soft explanations and propaganda, then go for it. The Cardinals will appreciate you for it. But anyone who doesn’t see the obvious disagreement and disconnect here is being sweetly naive.

The latest spin: well, the Cardinals are going to face a lot of right-handed starting pitchers over the next couple of weeks, so Walker wouldn’t be getting enough starts. Never mind that – and pardon my shouting – Walker is BETTER AGAINST RIGHT-HANDED PITCHING!

“He was swinging the bat really well down there (Memphis), and (we) definitely wanted to take a look at what he’s doing and where he’s at,” Mozeliak told reporters at Busch Stadium on Tuesday. “But as you look at what we’re facing over the next week and a half, he just wasn’t going to get much playing time. Obviously, someone at his age is developing if he’s not playing, it doesn’t make sense for him to be here.”

Then why bring Walker up in the first place?

I mean, are the Cardinals incapable of studying the upcoming schedule of the next several opponents, get a good read on what they can expect in the pitching (left or right) matchup, then consider the information and conclude that it’s best for Walker to keep bombing away in Memphis instead of jerking him all around again? This dude is massively important to the Cardinals’ future. He isn’t a Yo-Yo.

(Sidebar: I may be misinterpreting this, but Mozeliak said something Tuesday when meeting with reporters that sounded like a concession speech, or something like that. “There are a lot of demands on our roster now,” he said. “We are going to see some changes over the course of the next few weeks. And we also wanted to have the ability to start to take a look at some players before this season wraps up.”)

Hmmm. We’ll see where this goes, but Marmol’s job security has to be on shakier ground now. And Mozeliak is only reinforcing the idea that he’s been around too long, can’t connect with his own managers, and it sure as hell looks like another Mozeliak managerial hiring is on the way to another divorce. Oh, and Cardinals could be headed to a consecutive losing season (in a full season) since 1958-1959. Conclusion: it’s imperative to start over at the top of the baseball pyramid.

If chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. wakes up, he’ll move Mozeliak aside (or out), give the post to a new president of baseball operations, and have the new POBO hire the next manager.

DeWitt should be asking tough, tough questions of Marmol and Mozeliak.

Where was the communication between them?

Why was there a disconnect?

Why weren’t they on the same page?

How could Marmol go lone wolf here when he knows Mozeliak’s philosophy on how to handle young hitters that graduate to the Cardinals?

Did Mozeliak make his feelings known to Marmol – stating with absolute certainty – that Walker’s promotion required a regular presence in the lineup?

Given Mozeliak’s up-front policy on this, which has been in place for many years, I find it inconceivable that the manager would be oblivious to management’s expectations on deploying Walker.

Did Marmol agree with Mozeliak on principle, only to pivot and defy his direct superior?

DeWitt must ask more comprehensive and critical questions: why does this organization mess up so many talented young hitters? Why do they get lost here? Why do we repeatedly fail to lead them to their full potential, then cut ties when their trade value has bottomed out and move them for an embarrassingly low return? Where are we going wrong in our evaluations, our coaching, our requirement to maximize their talent and help them reach their potential? Why, as the chairman of the Cardinals, do I have to keep seeing our lost-soul or overlooked young hitters move on from our organization and become much better players when going to work for a new organization, a new manager, new coaches, new instructors?

The Cardinals’ supervision and direction of Walker’s career is a travesty. It is just another tell-tale sign of how far this Midwest baseball empire has fallen.

Walker was one of the top prospects in baseball. A gem that must be handled with care. Instead, the Cardinals have been too whimsical, too impatient and too impulsive with a new-generation star.

– Promote Walker to the big leagues at the end of 2023 spring training before he was ready. Look, he hit a ton of ground balls late in the exhibition game schedule, so the Cardinals were well aware of a potential problem – and the adjustments that needed to be made. Isn’t it smarter to have that education take place in Triple A? Until then, Walker had never played above Double A.

– After Walker began his major-league career with an exciting 12-game hitting streak, he cooled down (hardly a shock) and the Cardinals demoted him after his 20th game. Let’s retrace this. Walker gets a hit in 12 straight games … then goes 1 for 16 … then, in his final three games, goes 4 for 10. In other words: he reemerged from a brief slump, which is exactly what you want to see from a first-time major leaguer. And after the 4 for 10 … that’s when the Cardinals decided to put him in Memphis?

– Yeah, I know Walker was hitting too many ground balls and had to convert his abundant strength into home runs and doubles by driving more balls through the the air. I understood the thinking at the time, and it made sense, even though the first demotion was abrupt. But as the Cardinals continue to screw around with Walker, the less I trust them – and in retrospect, I shouldn’t have trusted their first decision to demote him in late April 2023. But I didn’t know then what I know now.

– Walker finished 2023 with a flourish, making the Cardinal people happy with the way he smashed pitches over his final 30 games. Walker batted .339, put up a .392 onbase percentage, and slugged .937 in his last 112 at-bats of the season. This was the young dynamo that everyone expected to see.

– Fast forward to 2024. Walker hit .155 in his first 20 games … and was routed to Memphis. Back to the minors after 20 games of the new season – just as it was after the first 20 games of the 2023 season.

– After his offense sparked in a big way at Triple A following a slow start to the campaign, Walker was promoted by the Cardinals on Aug. 12. He was gone a week later, riding back to Memphis after only 11 at-bats. What was the point to all of this? The incompetence is staggering.

I don’t think young hitters mind climbing their way through the minors as long as they’re putting in the work, seeing the improvement, and gaining confidence that they’ll be ready to go to the show when the call comes.

But you can’t put a young talent on a Tilt-A-Whirl ride and make his head spin. He’ll be confused. And he’ll probably resent the way he’s being treated.

This has definitely been a Tilt-A-Whirl for Walker.

A busted Tilt-A-Whirl.

In shorthand, here’s this preposterous ride has played out over the last two seasons:

2023 … open in the majors … demoted after 20 games … back to the majors with a happy ending to the year … 2024 … new season… 20 games in … back to the minors … three-plus months in the minors … back to the majors … six games in the majors … go back to the minors.

This is irresponsible. And inexcusable, especially when we take into account the Cardinals’ failures with too many talented, in-development hitters. You have a manager and president of baseball operations who (apparently) couldn’t agree on what would be the best plan for Walker. So who suffers the most? The player. Jordan Walker.

This is the craziest spin on the Tilt-A-Whirl yet. And the owner of the franchise is watching this all happen – time after time after time. And there are no repercussions for the men who should be guiding Walker to stardom – instead of guiding him on the map to go to and from Memphis to St. Louis to Memphis to St. Louis to Memphis to … maybe a new team? I hope not. But the only person who can intervene and stop this madness is Bill DeWitt.

Thanks for reading, and please pardon my typos…

–Bernie

The post Bernie: What Are The Cardinals Doing To Jordan Walker’s Career? Intervene, Bill DeWitt Jr., And Put An End To The Madness. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

The Milwaukee Brewers, the St. Louis Cardinals. Three summertime games at Busch Stadium. Two contenders, two rivals, meet again in a scrap for the NL Central division title.

Oh, wait. That’s right. I suppose I need more coffee or something. I must have been daydreaming about a series that could have been … but isn’t.

This is no showdown. The Brewers march into the series with an 11-game lead on the forlorn and fading second-place Cardinals. According to the adjusted forecast from the esteemed analyst Clay Davenport, Milwaukee has a 99.4 percent probability of finishing in first place. The Brewers aren’t clowning around, having won 10 of their last 13 games to all but knock out the Cardinals, Cubs, Reds and Pirates.

Brewers’ franchise player Christian Yelich is out for the season after undergoing back surgery; his last game was July 23. That’s a big loss, right? Well, the Brewers just kept going, rolling to a 14-9 record since Yelich withdrew because of back pain. Despite losing Yelich — who had a .315 average, .406 onbase percentage and .504 slug — the Crew has averaged 4.8 runs over the last 23 games, pounding out 30 doubles, 29 homers and eight triples.

Even if the Cardinals do something crazy and sweep the Brewers, the Redbirds would be eight games out with 35 to play. According to FanGraphs the St. Louis wild-card probability is low at 3.2 percent. OK, I’ll play along. The Cardinals are five games behind Atlanta for the third wild-card diploma, and rather than sit here and waste more time talking about the possibilities, let’s leave it at this: the Cardinals will have to win many, many, many games the rest of the way to make a lunge at October.

This figures to be a difficult proposition because the Cardinals haven’t won more than two consecutive games since clicking off four straight from June 20 through 24. But to summon the kind of verve necessary to gallivant on a longshot run, the Cardinals must start by winning this series. This is a modest but mandatory goal for an disappearing STL club that’s topped only one MLB team – the deplorable White Sox – in winning percentage since July 10.

The Brewers have done it to the Cardinals again, exposing the flagrant flaws of a St. Louis front office that can’t build a team capable of matching the small-market, low-budget entity from Milwaukee. This has been going on since 2017. Over the last seven-plus seasons, the Brewers have a higher winning percentage than the Cardinals and have qualified for more postseasons than the Cardinals.

The Brewers are what the Cardinals used to be: smart, efficient, ahead of the curve, a model for pitching development, and making the best use of financial resources. That seems like a long time ago. Complacency cost the Cardinals, and the Brewers’ highly intelligent baseball operation moved up and took over the NL Central.

I wrote about this much earlier this season, but it’s worthy of a brief recap. St. Louis has outspent Milwaukee by approximately $300.2 million in the 26-man payroll since the outset of 2017. Cardinals chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. must be a helluva lot more patient than most of us.

Despite seeing so many of the team’s payroll dollars all but flushed down the toilet, DeWitt hasn’t snapped, hasn’t turned the organization upside down, and hasn’t even made any meaningful changes. And the Brewers continue to kick the Cardinals, turning a heated rivalry into a recreational sport.

It is more of the same in 2024. Citing either the 26-man or 40-man payroll (at Cots Contracts) the Cardinals have outspent the Brewers by about $60 million this season. And despite the STL’s obvious financial advantage, let’s see where the teams rank in the major categories in 2024 – and I’ll use the 15-team National League rankings:

Winning percentage: Brewers (.581) 4th, Cardinals (.492), 9th.

Runs scored per game: Brewers 4th, Cardinals14th.

Runs allowed per game: Brewers 2nd, Cardinals 11th.

Defensive runs saved: Brewers 3rd, Cardinals 7th

Starting-pitching ERA: Brewers 14th, Cardinals 24th.

Bullpen ERA: Brewers 2nd, Cardinals 9th.

Stolen bases: Brewers 3rd, Cardinals 12th. Milwaukee has hit a few more home runs than St. Louis this season, but can score in other ways. Taking advantage of the easier access to stolen bases is one example. The Brewers have swiped 159 bags this season – 93 more than the Cardinals.

Minor-league farm system: The Brewers went into the 2024 season with MLB Pipeline’s second-ranked farm system rating, and the Cardinals were far behind that at No. 23. (The ratings have changed since then; the Brewers have promoted multiple rookies to the majors, and the Cardinals have gotten a rankings boost from the emergence of pitching prospect Quinn Mathews.)

Rookies: The Brewers are ranked 6th in the majors in Wins Above Replacement by rookie pitchers; the Cardinals are 15th. The Crew’s rookie position players lead the majors in WAR, and the Cardinals (because of Masyn Winn) are 4th.

The Cardinals used to be dominant in their specialty of drafting and developing pitching but became complacent and ceded their advantage. Because of the Cardinals’ arrogance, the Brewers had a much easier time to surpass the crumbling DeWitt Era in St. Louis. It isn’t just about the pitching. The Cardinals have had too many young hitting prospects wash out or underachieve, the Brewers have done much better in this crucial area.

Last December the Brewers signed outfielder Jackson Chourio, MLB’s No. 1 prospect, to an eight-year, $82 million contract. They did it before Chourio, age 20, made his major-league debut. That’s a confident organization.

In the first two months of the season, the overwhelmed Chourio batted .210, slugged just .327, and had a lowly .581 OPS, and struck out 27 percent of the time. Did Milwaukee rush to demote Chourio to the minors for a reset? The Cardinals may do that with Jordan Walker, but other organizations are wiser and more patient. The Brewers stuck with their phenom, and the team’s excellent coaching staff helped Chourio come around. Since the beginning of June, Chourio has a .314 average, .518 slug, .880 OPS, and has his strikeout rate by 10 percent. He’s already one of the best players in baseball.

A front office led by Matt Arnold does an incredible job of cultivating deep depth by identifying low-cost, high-value signings. The Brewers have been slammed by injuries this season – especially pitching – but have the supplementary talent to fill voids. Milwaukee has used 17 different starting pitchers this season including nine that have made five starts or more. Milwaukee’s bullpen produces a parade of relievers on demand; the front office keeps the organization well stocked to handle emergencies.

That’s how the Brewers have survived a number of potentially devastating developments, including manager Craig Counsell’s decision to defect to the Cubs for a huge contract.

The front office traded pending free-agent ace Corbin Burnes to the Orioles for a good young third baseman (Joey Ortiz) and promising starting-pitcher prospect DL Hall. It was a smart move because the Brewers couldn’t have signed Burnes to a new deal.

The Brewers haven’t had co-ace Brandon Woodruff (shoulder surgery) all season. recovers from shoulder surgery. Injuries have taken down two other starting pitchers, Robert Gasser and Wade Miley. They’ve covered the non-stop rotation shortages by turning to the effectively recycled starter Colin Rea, coming up with a surprisingly good and formerly heralded rookie (Tobias Myers), and trading for Aaron Civale and Frankie Montas.

The superb closer Devin Williams (back injury) returned in late July after missing nearly four months. And he’s been destroying hitters coming back. And Milwaukee had plenty of bullpen crusaders to protect leads until Williams reentered.

The Brewers know what they’re doing.

The Cardinals are the opposite of that.

New proof: Jordan Walker has been sent back to Triple A Memphis because manager Oli Marmol wouldn’t start him against right-handed pitching. President of baseball ops John Mozeliak, who wants Walker to play regularly, responded to Marmol’s stubbornness sending Walker back down to the minors after the 22-year-old right fielder made only 12 plate appearances in his one-week reappearance.

The Cardinals’ baseball operation is cracked and lost in some post-domination haze. The much smarter, opportunistic and highly professional Brewers are happy to take advantage of this once-great franchise down in St. Louis.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube.

Please subscribe and here’s the link:

@TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: The Brewers Are What The Cardinals Used To Be. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

I don’t think Cardinals manager Oli Marmol wants to get fired, or is trying to get sacked. But in a word, this plan he’s worked up for Jordan Walker is cockamamie.

On Aug. 12, when the second-year right fielder was recalled after a long stay in the minors at Triple A Memphis, Marmol immediately relegated the right-handed swinging Cardinal into a platoon role, starting only against left-handed pitching.

How’s that working out? Ridiculously bad. Yeah, it’s early and all that. But in his pro career, Walker does well against right-handed pitchers, and not so well against lefties. (More in that later.) To this point after being invited back to the majors, Walker is 0 for 8 against lefties and 1 for 3 vs. righties. So turn him loose against right-handed pitchers, OK? That’s what Walker does best — minor league, National League, any league.

Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak didn’t sound happy about the situation when our friend Tom Ackerman (KMOX) asked about Walker’s situation.

“He was definitely swinging the bat well,” Mozeliak said of Jordan’s resurgence at Memphis. “And in terms of my philosophy – in terms of how you think of young players – they really do need to be playing. So ultimately, we have to look at what the schedule looks like, who we’re facing, and map out a plan.

“And if we’re not going to find every day at-bats for him, we may have to rethink that.”

Oh, boy.

Yes, the head of baseball operations controls the roster and sets it. The manager controls the lineup card and sets it. That protocol has been in place for a long time. But it isn’t that simple. There’s usually some give and take on both sides, until the manager and the baseball boss find the common ground.

Mozeliak’s feelings on this subject are clear: he expects Walker to play. And ib my view, Mozeliak is absolutely right in feeling as he does. If Mozeliak knew that Walker would come back to St. Louis and sit in the dugout with Brandon Crawford, he wouldn’t have made this move. I’m not sure how this situation will evolve, but it’s a very interesting development.

We must remember (as we do) that this is Mozeliak’s manager. “Mo” fired Mike Shildt before the 2022 season, and elevated Marmol, who was the bench coach, to replace Shildt in the big chair.

Not only that, but after the embarrassingly awful terribly 71-91 season in 2023, Mozeliak originally said no when asked about extending Marmol’s contract before this season. The POBO set it up as a make or break year for the young manager. And then, out of nowhere, came an unexpected pivot. Mozeliak changed his mind during spring training and gave Marmol a two-year contract extension.

I suppose that contract extension can be converted into severance pay, but I digress …

This is a bizarre and unsettling time for St. Louis Cardinals baseball. I can’t imagine why chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. would put up with this.

The Cardinals used to be the envy of most other major-league franchises. And now they’re the object of laughter and scorn and “what the hell happened to that juggernaut?” inquiries.

Well, it happens in sports. The Cardinals turned stale and outdated. And it wasn’t easy to sustain the success without a Hall of Fame manager who established a winning mindset, very high standards and an exemplary team culture. Look at the Green Bay Packers after Vince Lombardi retired. Substitute the name “Tony La Russa” for Lombardi and you’ll understand the intended reference.

This STL organization’s litany of problems go beyond the usual Sturm and Drang of a manager’s performance. I usually try to defend Marmol over unfair criticism, and I try to keep in mind that he can only work with the roster he’s been handed. And this roster is flawed.

That said, don’t you think the Cardinals – even with their shortcomings – should be better than a team that’s lugging around the second-worst record in the majors (13-21) since July 10? Should this team really be spiraling in a disastrous free fall? Shouldn’t the Cardinals be better than a drifting team that’s in obvious danger of heading to a second consecutive losing season?

Even if we think the talent level is insufficient for high-level success, shouldn’t the Cardinals be playing harder, displaying more urgency, and flinging themselves into a tenacious, save-the-season rescue? I don’t see that. Not much. Not yet. And maybe we won’t see it as the time clicks away on the 2024 campaign.

All of this – including the Walker debacle – leads to more intense scrutiny of Marmol. And no, I’m certainly not leaving Mozeliak’s status out of this. He’s been blasted by fans and non-dutiful media for a long time, but in this specific case, the in-progress Jordan fiasco is more about the manager.

This dysfunctional franchise had no business calling up Walker if the plan was to sit him (as a starter) against right-handed pitching. So where was the breakdown in communication? How can there be such a disconnect? Mozeliak has always been steadfast in his belief that young players must play regularly – or there’s simply no reason to add them to the big club. Remember Mozeliak sending a young Kolten Wong to the minors whenever manager Mike Matheny wanted to play some broken-down veteran at second base? Eventually, Matheny got the message … I think.

You just don’t bring Walker back to St. Louis to be a platoon bat; that’s loony-tunes stuff. Walker needs as many reps as he can get. Surely Marmol is aware of Mozeliak’s preference here, right? And if Marmol is going against management’s wishes … hey, best of luck with that. Ask Matheny and Mike Shildt how that played out.

As for the baseball-only aspect, this much is clear: in Walker’s brief major-league career he’s been far more productive against right-handed pitching. The same splits apply to Walker’s in the minor leagues, but I’ll use Walker’s big-league stats to show the difference.

In the majors, Walker has 151 career plate appearances vs. LH pitching 393 plate appearances vs. RH pitching.

• Batting avg: .195 vs LH … .281 vs. RH
• Onbase pct: .285 vs. LH … .341 vs. RH
• Slugging pct: .331 vs. LH … .447 vs. RH
• OPS: .616 vs. LH … .788 vs. RH

Big difference, eh?

There’s confirmation in the wRC+ metric (aka park and league adjusted runs created.) In his brief major-league career, Walker is 29 percent below league average vs. lefties and 15 percent above league average vs. the righties. So what the heck is up with this?

The Cardinals are taking an odd, nearly incomprehensible, approach with a young hitter that has the talent and potential to be special. Goodness, we saw that last season when Walker the rookie slugged ..445 and had an OPS+ that was 15 percent above league average offensively. And he was only 21 years old. The Cardinals probably brought Walker to the majors too soon, and then they’ve been impatient when he’s encountered trouble at the plate, and now the guy that holds the lineup card wants to make Walker a part-timer. Hell, Marmol was perhaps the leader of the cheer squad that wanted Walker to break camp with the Cardinals in 2023.

Sadly, this is the place where potential fades. This is the place where the Cardinals have failed in getting a sequence of young outfielders through the inevitable downturns as hitters. It’s almost as if the manager gets mad at young hitters that aren’t good, all the time, from the day they arrive in St. Louis. And we’ve seen any number of these out-of-favor young hitters reclaim their potential with a new team and deliver with their talent and deliver on it. Is it happening again?

May I please make a suggestion that requires only two words:

Sanity, anyone?

Thanks for reading …

And please pardon my typos.

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube.

Please subscribe and here’s the link:

@TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link. We recorded a new one on Monday, Aug. 19. It’s still fresh!

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: The Very Odd Case Of Jordan Walker. Are The Cardinals Messing Up Another Young Hitter? appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

I don’t know about you, but I’m tired of watching the Cardinals hit into ground-ball double plays. Actually, it’s tiring just to watch this team. We should all take more naps … just like the team. OK, I’m being a little nasty here. I would like to smile and engage in some Happy Talk banter, but the Cardinals aren’t giving me much to work with.

By now we know that the Cardinals are bad, the first-place Brewers own them in the NL Central, and the National League wild-card contenders are leaving the Redbirds behind. Instead of narrowing, the distance between themselves and teams they’re pursuing is expanding, and looking more ominous by the day.

The season is blowing up and this team is increasingly difficult to watch. The Cardinals are lethargic in too many games. They are easily dispirited. The confidence level depletes quickly during times of hardship and failure. STL’s record when trailing after eight innings this season – 2-54 – is among the worst in the majors. Only five teams have won fewer games than the Cardinals this season when down in the score, going into the ninth.

After losing two of three to the Dodgers to complete a woeful 1-5 week, the fading Cardinals trail the Brewers by 11 games and are five games out of the No. 3 wild-card spot.

Not too long ago the Cards got to within 3 and ½ games of division-leading Milwaukee, were close to chasing down top wild-card seed Atlanta, and had the lead over several other wild-card contenders – New York, San Diego, Arizona and San Francisco.

I’ll give you the details on the stunning reversal of St. Louis fortunes a little later in this piece. But the Cardinals are free-falling, and by now it’s just a matter of waiting to see how far down they’ll be by the end of the season.

The grim particulars:

– The Cardinals have lost six of their last seven games, and are 5-11 in August.

– They’re 7-11 since the trade deadline, and 11-17 since the All-Star break.

– Their .393 winning percentage after the All-Star sabbatical is tied for 13th in the National League. Their winning percentage in August (.313) is 14th in the NL and tied for 27th in the majors.

– Traveling in time back to July 10 – the day the St. Louis season began to spiral – the Redbirds have won only 13 of 34 games. The .383 winning percentage during this loathsome stretch ranks last in the NL and 29th in the majors.

– The Cardinals have won only three of their last 11 series, losing six and splitting two.

– The current FanGraphs Playoff Odds reflect the collapse. As of Monday morning the Cards had an 0.7 percent chance of winning the division, a 3.6% shot of pilfering a wild-card spot and a postseason probability that’s down to 4.3%.

You’d like to see the Cardinals summon the stubborn willpower necessary to stack more wins and attain relevancy. But these days, there isn’t much going on to instill hope in the team and a rightfully angry fan base.

DRAMATIC REVERSAL OF FORTUNE: St. Louis has lost an enormous amount of ground in the standings over the last six weeks or so.

After winning on July 8, the Cardinals (48-42) were a season-high six games over .500, trailed first-place Milwaukee by a workable 4 and ½ games, and were seeded in the NL’s No. 2 wild-card spot at only 2 and ½ games below No. 1 Atlanta.

And now? The Brewers own the NL Central with a 98.5 percent chance of winning the division. The top three wild-card bids are held by the Padres (70-55), Diamondbacks (69-56) and Braves (66-58). The Redbirds have been tossed into the sixth position in the wild-card scramble, hoping to stay ahead of the Cubs and Reds.

During the more pleasant time on July 8, the Cardinals were seemingly closing in on the Braves and collectively led the Mets, Padres, Diamondbacks by 13 games in the wild-card standings. (The 13 is what you get when you add up each team’s games behind the Cardinals.)

And now, for the kick in the teeth: since July 9, the Cardinals have lost 41 and ½ games in the standings, collectively, to the Braves, Padres, Diamondbacks, Braves, Mets and Giants.

Holy cannoli.

For a while there, the 2024 Cardinals appeared to be on their way to making a postseason return. But now they’ll be trying to avoid sinking with a second consecutive losing record in two full seasons since 1958-1959.

THE ONGOING MALAISE OF 2023-2024: Over the last two seasons the Cardinals are 24 games under .500, and their .462 winning percentage ranks 23rd overall and 12th in the NL. And since the start of last season the Cardinals have a minus 172 run differential that ranks 24th – ahead of only the Angels, Nationals, Marlins, A’s, Rockies and White Sox. Remember when the Cardinals were up there with the Dodgers, Yankees, Braves. Me, too. They’re slumming now.

SHADES OF 2023? Based on run differential, the Cardinals “deserved” record through124 games this season is 55-69. Last season through 124 games, the 2023 Cardinals were 54-70.

JORDAN WALKER: Quick comment for now: unless there’s an injury, he must play in every game every day. What Oli Marmol is doing here – platooning Walker – is daft. More on this later today, in an upcoming column.

CHEERS FOR ANDRE PALLANTE: The third-year righthander was outstanding in Saturday’s 5-2 win over the Dodgers. He gave the Cardinals seven strong innings, getting mussed for only four hits and two runs while walking two and striking out five.

Pallante has strengthened a problematic weakness. Though he’s a right-handed pitcher, he has struggled to subdue right-handed hitters during his early career. But that’s changing. In his last seven starts – with a better four-seam fastball and more liberal use of his sinker – Pallante has limited RH batters to a .180 average, .240 onbase percentage and .270 slug. And in the last seven starts he’s induced a 51.4 percent ground-ball rate from RH hitters.

Let’s update one of my favorite stats that shows why Pallante should remain in the rotation when Steven Matz and Lance Lynn return (as expected) from the injured list.

Starting-pitcher ERAs since Pallante entered the rotation on May 29, minimum three starts:

• Pallante, 3.75
• Sonny Gray, 4.73
• Lynn, 4.78
• Kyle Gibson, 4.91
• Matthew Liberatore, 4.97
• Miles Mikolas, 5.24
• Erick Fedde, 5.63

I can’t wait to see what manager Marmol (and the front office) will do when the injured starters return.

STL OFFENSE, FREEZING IN AUGUST: While losing six of their last seven games, the Cardinals averaged 2.7 runs, batted .227, had an awful onbase percentage (.283) a low slugging rate (.376) and lagged to a .659 OPS. During this cold spell, the Cards have been held to three runs or fewer five times in seven games. And they’ve scored no more than two runs in four of the seven.

And of course: the Redbirds are 8 for 46 (.167) with runners in scoring position over the last seven games. Tommy Pham, Lars Nootbaar, Brandon Crawford, Masyn Winn, Nolan Gorman, Victor Scott II, Paul Goldschmidt and Brendan Donovan are a combined 2 for 30 (.067) with RISP over the last seven games. Embarrassing.

For the month the Cardinals are 27th in MLB in runs scored and rank no better than 22nd in slugging, onbase percentage, OPS and wRC+.

CARDINALS VS. LEFTY PITCHERS: Still overmatched. The Redbirds are 27th in the majors against left-handed pitchers this season with a wRC+ that puts them 16 percent below league average. They’ve hit .208 vs. lefties the season when batting with runners in scoring position. That ranks 29th. What are those devilish lefties doing, anyway?

• Cardinals are batting .204 with a .333 slug against sliders and sweepers thrown by lefties.

• They’re are hitting .145 with a .226 slug on cutters from lefties..

• They have a .238 average and .338 slug vs. offspeed offerings from lefties.

PAUL GOLDSCHMIDT: After getting off to a good start early in season when batting with runners in scoring position, he’s been a mess in RISP situations since the start of May. The numbers are brutal .146 average, .240 OBP, .213 slug, 31% strikeout rate, and four double-play grounders. This month Goldschmidt is 2 for 16 (.125) with six strikeouts in RISP situations. Goldy has done some positive things as of late – a .536 slugging percentage with two doubles and two homers in his last six games – but it’s been a long season for this proud competitor.

WILLSON CONTRERAS: It’s been a challenging month for the Cards catcher. Contreras has a .233 average with a substandard .367 slugging percentage. He’s drawn enough walks for a decent onbase percentage (.333) but has two homers and six RBIs in 60 at-bats.

Thanks as always for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. Here’s the link:

@TheBernieShow

You can follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link. We recorded a new pod on Monday, Aug. 19.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: At Least I Can Catch Up On My Sleep During Cardinals’ Games. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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WEEKEND AT BERNIE’S

The Cardinals went down – hard – in a 7-6 loss to the Dodgers on Friday at Busch Stadium. That’s five consecutive losses and a continuation of a horrendous August for this fading whatchamacallit. I use that word, only because I’m not sure what to call the Cardinals. Are they a postseason contender? Well, maybe by the math. But do they look like a contender? You already know the answer to that. They’re 60-62 and have spun into reverse after proudly rising to a season-best six games over .500 on July 8.

I see a bad moon rising. The Cardinals are 12-20 (.379) since July 10. The only team that’s been worse than St. Louis over that time are the derelict White Sox at 4-26. The Birds are 4-10 this month, 6-10 since the trade deadline, and 10-16 since the All-Star break. Next: two more weekend games to go against the Dodgers, then a day off, and then three at home against Milwaukee.

The Cardinals trail the first-place Brewers by a season-high 10 games. The Reds are also 10 games out, and the Cubs have inched their way to only a half–game behind Cincinnati and St. Louis. The Cardinals are four games out of the NL’s No. 3 wild-card spot, but there’s several teams stuck in the traffic snarl with them.

FRIDAY’S GAME: DID OLI MARMOL MAKE THE WRONG MOVE?

Miles Mikolas was having a terrific start Friday, but the Dodgers wiped out a 4-2 deficit and chased him out of the competition in the sixth inning.

For the first five innings Mikolas pitched around seven hits, allowed two runs, and impressively struck out seven batters without issuing a walk. Marmol rode with Mikolas into the sixth. Mookie Betts opened the fateful inning with a solo homer to cut the home team’s lead to 4-3. Mikolas retired the next two hitters, then was scratched for two consecutive infield singles. That was the frustrating part; it must be tough for a pitcher to get knocked out after a couple of two-out singles that avoided a capture by Cards shortstop Masyn Winn.

This is where I would like to talk about the wisdom of Marmol’s strategy. These types of situations can be handled in a number of ways, and it’s an automatic second-guess of any manager when his choice goes the wrong way. But I enjoy getting into some of the intricacies, so please join me …

– Marmol intervened and brought in reliever Andrew Kittredgethe move failed because the pitcher failed. Kittredge immediately gave up a tying RBI single to Miguel Rojas, then was pierced for a stunning, go-ahead three-run homer by the light-hitting Kevin Kiermaier. And in a flash the Dodgers had an instant 7-4 lead.

– Impact? Before the start of the sixth inning the Dodgers had a win expectancy of just 22 percent. But by the time Kiermaier rearranged the scoreboard with one swing, the Dodgers’ win expectancy was 84 percent. That sure happened fast.

– Did Marmol screw up by lifting Mikolas? It’s a matter of individual opinion and largely depends on how you look at it. Some would say Marmol should catch grief because his decision to change pitchers turned a 4-3 lead into a 7-4 deficit in a quick, unmerciful destruction. If you are the type of observer who believes that a manager should be ripped because the move didn’t work, then you would fault Marmol for the pitching change. And that is your prerogative.

– If you believe that Marmol had a valid reason for calling in Kittredge, that’s probably based on your knowledge of how hitters often take Mikolas apart during their third round of at-bats against him in a game.

– This season when Mikolas has faced a lineup for the third time, he’s been slapped for a 7.26 ERA, .280 average and .475 slugging percentage. There’s a larger point to make: Mikolas has the second-worst ERA (5.41) by a starting pitcher in MLB this season. And if we go back to the start of 2023, Mikolas ranks 33rd among 35 innings-qualified starters with a 5.04 ERA. Mikolas was effective for much of his outing on Friday … he was pitching better than anticipated. But this was temporary, because he isn’t a good pitcher.

– In my view, Marmol doesn’t have to apologize for giving the ball to Kittredge in that scenario. Coming into Friday, Kittredge hadn’t allowed a run in his last eight appearances, giving up only five hits and two walks in 7 and ⅓ innings. The single by Rojas wasn’t a desirable way for Kittredge to start the assignment, but Rojas is a .276 hitter, and .276 hitters can win matchups. And with the three-batter minimum in effect, Kittredge had to stay in the game.

– There was certainly a reason to have confidence in Kittredge in vs. Kiermaier, who entered Friday’s contest with a .195 average .305 slugging percentage and four homers. But Kitttredge obviously didn’t have the right stuff Friday, and Kiermaier jumped him. It happens. And just in case you’re wondering, there wasn’t much history between them; Kiermaier had been 0 for 2 against Kittredge for his career. That isn’t even worth mentioning, but I did so anyway in case there was a question about their previous batter vs. hitter encounters.

– Marmol’s move wasn’t the wrong move from a strategic standpoint. But again, if you believe that any move that explodes on the manager is the manager’s fault, then blame Marmol. I tend to look at a lot of factors to form my opinion before taking a side on these timeless (and fun) debates.

– The real problem here is Mikolas. For all that we make over his vulnerability against hitters the third time through the lineup, here’s what shouldn’t be overlooked: Mikolas also gets clobbered when confronting a lineup the second time through.

– This season in the second-time-through challenges, Mikolas has been lacerated for a 6.45 ERA, .315 average, .569 slug and 12 homers. Good grief. It’s not like Mikolas is invincible until he gets to the third cycle against the opponent’s lineup Far from it. And based on the way Kittredge has been pitching lately, the reliever was a smarter bet than Mikolas at that point.

– It was hardly crazy for Marmol to replace the second-worst starter in the majors (based on ERA) with two men on base and two out. If Kittredge puts out the fire, as he has done so often, then we aren’t talking about the manager mangling a game.

– When a manager has to use a terrible starting pitcher every fifth day or so, the chances of something going afoul are pretty damn strong.

– But what choice does Marmol have? Payroll salary shouldn’t matter, but that’s not how it works in the real world. Mikolas has a guaranteed spot because he’s being paid a sizable guaranteed salary this season and he will be paid a sizable salary again in 2025. I suppose Marmol could come out, bark, and say he’s replacing Mikolas in the rotation. And if he wanted to do that – and I don’t think he does – this would be one way to speed up a potential timetable for getting sacked.

BIRD BYTES

1) Friday was mixed-bag kind of night for the St. Louis offense. The Cards scored six runs, which is good. They swatted three homers, which is good. They went 2 for 5 with runners in scoring position, which is good.

2) I liked the two-run homer by Paul Goldschmidt, and the solo rockets from Masyn Winn and Pedro Pages. But after Pages singled in a two-out run in the sixth to cut LA’s lead to 7-6, the Cardinals shut down. The bats went into the wood chipper. Beginning with Victor Scott’s flyout to end the sixth, the Redbirds went 0 for 10 with two walks and four strikeouts for the remainder of the competition. The Cardinals had six hits and six walks in the game, and scored four of their six runs via the homer.

3) The Cardinals scored five or more runs for only the fourth time in 14 games this month, and it should have been enough for a victory. But it wasn’t. These things are typical of a team that’s fallen apart in the first two weeks of August.

4) Ah, August. This observation from Henry Rollins, the Black Flag punk-rock icon turned spoken-word artist: “Every year, August lashes out in volcanic fury, rising with the din of morning traffic, its great metallic wings smashing against the ground, heating the air with ever-increasing intensity.”

4a) Henry left out the part about a five-game losing streak and 4-10 August record. As an 18-year old … or maybe it was 19 … I saw Black Flag in an abandoned furniture-store warehouse in Baltimore and seem to recall fans rushing the stage in platoon waves to throw punches. At one point Rollins was slashed by a sharp object that wasn’t a knife. (A pen, maybe?) A snarling Rollins dragged one disagreeable attendee out of the pit and onto the stage and punched him like Sonny Liston working over Floyd Patterson. (Google it, kid.) Me? I was the tall wearing a Gordon & Smith surfboard shirt that I’d just bought for $15 dollars at the beach in Ocean City, Md. (Yeah, I was a regular Duke Kahanamoku.) I was proud to sport that item of clothing, and 5 minutes into the show, my piece of summer art was ripped straight off my back. Hey, it wasn’t easy being a tackle dummy in the mosh pit. But being a large young fella, I was skilled at delivering crack-back blocks in. Blind-side hits, baby. Ain’t no personal-foul penalty flags up in here.

Those were the days, my friends.

5) The Cardinals have a starting-pitching ERA of 5.28 since June 18 … and a 5.09 ERA since the All-Star break … and a 5.43 ERA since the start of July … and a 6.18 ERA in August. Their August starting pitching ERA ranks 29th in the majors.

6) Updated earned-run averages by each Cardinal starting pitcher for August:

* Sonny Gray, 4.74
Andre Pallante, 5.23
Erick Fedde, 5.63
Kyle Gibson, 6.11
** Miles Mikolas, 9.22

7) The St. Louis bullpen had a 3.50 ERA before the All-Star break, which ranked sixth in the majors. Since the All-Star break the STL bullpen ERA is 4.61, which ranks 20th.

8) In order, here is the monthly team ERA for the Cardinals in 2024, and you’ll notice the pattern:

— March-April, 4.08
— May, 4.23
— June, 3.53
— July, 4.52
— August, 5.57

9) Combined batting average for Jordan Walker and Victor Scott in March-April: .120

10) Combined batting average for Walker and Scott in August: .170. Well, they are getting better … right?

11) In 56 combined plate appearances in August, Lars Nootbaar and Nolan Gorman collectively batted .196 with no homers, two doubles and one RBI. Nootbaar hasn’t homered since July 21. Gorman hasn’t homered since July 22.

12) Saturday morning’s Playoff Odds, via FanGraphs: the Cardinals have a 1.2 percent chance of winning the NL Central, and a 3.0% shot of clinching a wild card.

Gee, ain’t I the bluebird of happiness today. But as I’ve been saying for years: I can only work with the factual material that is presented to me. And the Cardinals are not much of a team right now.

Thank you all for reading … and please enjoy your weekend.

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. Please subscribe – thank you! – and here’s the link:

@TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Weekend At Bernie’s: Bad Moon Rising. Five Straight Losses By the Cardinals. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

Here are seven things I want to see from the Cardinals over their final 41 regular-season games:

1. Let’s see a bleeping pulse: the Redbirds 60-61 and slowly and painfully drifting their way into complete irrelevancy as a postseason applicant. But I’ll play along here. Even though their chances of filching a wild-card spot are increasingly remote, they technically aren’t out of it. They still have mathematical life. But not if they can’t find a pulse. In getting swept and embarrassed by the Reds, the Cardinals showed all the signs of a team that is quitting. OK, boys, show us that you still give a damn and are up for the fight to save your season. The Dodgers are in town, followed by the Brewers. If that doesn’t get your passion and intensity going, then you’ll be confirming that you have, indeed, quit on the season.

2. I want to see someone to step up and take charge as a leader. It isn’t Nolan Arenado, who emits negative energy when things are going bad for himself or his team. It isn’t Paul Goldschmidt, but only because it isn’t his style to be proactive and aggressive. With Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright out of the clubhouse, the Cardinals simply don’t have championship-caliber leadership. Period. This team hasn’t been the same since Albert, Yadi and Waino were teammates for the last time in 2022. It’s no coincidence. It was time for others to emerge as leaders, and it has not happened. It was easy for some guys to hide with Pujols, Molina and Wainwright in the same clubhouse, tending to everything that required attention. But who’s next? A team with a strong collective character will have the quality leadership that makes it easier to push through the hard times.

Do the Cardinals have that element? I’m highly skeptical – and doubtful – but I’m sure there will be some happy-talk propaganda coming our way to suggest that the opposite is true … and the Cardinals have outstanding leadership! Hah. If this team had substantive leadership, we wouldn’t have seen the Cardinals go so soft and meek while getting clubbed 27-7 in four straight losses to the Royals and Reds.

3. I want to watch something really positive from Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman. And with that, I want to see if anyone in the major-league operation has a dad-gum clue about what must be done to fix both young hitters. Their careers have gone sideways or backwards or both. The 2024 journey has been a real setback for both guys. There’s no justifiable reason for either hitters doing so poorly. Yeah, I get it – players have to perform. They have to find ways to make adjustments and improve. We all know that.

OK, so why are the Cardinals paying several batting coaches? With the financial resources available to them, the Cardinals should have the finest coaching staff that money can buy. So, what’s up with hitters leaving here to instantly get better for their new team in a fresh environment? We’ve seen this happen too many times.

Dylan Carlson had a morbid .515 OPS and didn’t homer in his 121 at-bats as a Cardinal this season. His OPS+ was an alarming 54 percent below league average offensively. In first 30 ABs for Tampa Bay, Carlson had two homers, a .343 onbase percentage, .467 slug and .810 OPS. And though it’s obviously very early, Carlson’s OPS+ is 30 percent above league average.

Even with some injury time with Boston this season, Tyler O’Neill has 22 homers, a .544 slug, and .900 OPS. As for OPS+, O’Neill is 43 percent above league average offensively for the Red Sox. This compares favorably to his career-best season in St. Louis (2021) when T.O. was 48 percent above league average offensively in OPS+.

This is a bad, bad, look for the Cardinals. I wonder if Bill DeWitt Jr. throws any objects at his TV set as he watches talented young hitters fail here and flourish elsewhere? Batting coach Turner Ward has struck out with too many struggling young hitters. The latest are Walker, Gorman and Lars Nootbaar.

In the two seasons since lead batting instructor Jeff Albert was nudged to pack his equipment and go, the Cardinals rank 24th in MLB in runs per game, are 22nd in extra-base hits, and are below league average in onbase percentage, slugging, OPS and total bases. Their .239 batting average with runners in scoring position ranks 27th – a main reason why only one team has left more runners on base than the Cardinals over the last two seasons.

4. I want to see the starting pitching bounce back and stabilize. If possible, that is. The rotation was pretty solid over the first three months, ranking 17th in the bigs with a 4.18 ERA. But since July 1, Cardinal starters rank 26th with a 5.36 ERA in 38 games. It is taking a gruesome turn in August, ranking 29th with a junk-pile ERA of 5.96.

For context, consider: in 2023 the battered and cracked St. Louis rotation had a 5.08 ERA that was the worst in franchise history in a full season. And after a decent start to ‘24, the rotation has been ripped for 5.22 ERA in the last 50 games.

That’s right; since the middle of June this group has an ERA that’s more pitiful than the franchise-worst 5.08 in during the 2023 disaster.

I’m looking at the three older veterans who were signed as free agents last winter: Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn.

Gray is 34, Gibson is 36, and Lynn is 37. How are they holding up? You can be the judge.

• In the first two months of the season, Gray, Gibson and Lynn combined for a dandy 3.45 ERA in 31 starts.

• In the last three months, Gray-Gibson–Lynn have combined for an inflated 4.83 ERA in 35 starts.

I didn’t include Miles Mikolas for a good reason. Since the start of the 2023 season, Mikolas (age 35) ranks 32nd among 34 innings-qualified MLB starting pitchers with a 5.00 ERA. He’s also tied for the worst strikeout rate (16%) over the last two seasons. Why would anyone of sound mind expect Mikolas to suddenly perform at a consistently higher level over the final six weeks?

5. I want to see opportunities given to younger players. This request applies if the Cardinals continue to lose and swerve to a larger deficit in the standings. There will be a time for a reality check. If the Cardinals are in a hopeless situation, it would be stupid to waste the schedule’s garbage-time on players who were largely responsible for the fall into mediocrity.

The list of potential candidates includes a list of guys at Triple A Memphis: infield prospects Thomas Saggese and Cesar Prieto, outfielder Matt Koperniak, slugger Luken Baker, catcher Ivan Herrera and pitchers Michael McGreevy, Gordon Graceffo and Ryan Loutos. Hell, I’d be tempted to give a couple of starts to on-the-rise pitching prospect Quinn Mathews. Quickly working his way up the system, Mathews has an overall 2.49 ERA and 35.6 percent strikeout rate at three three levels in the minors. Currently at Double A Springfield, the lefty starter has a 3.11 ERA and a 30% strikeout rate in his first seven starts there.

6. I want to see the enigmatic Lars Nootbaar lock in and generate some head-turning offense. In 2022-2023 combined, Nootbaar had a .786 OPS, hit a homer every 25 at bats, and posted an OPS+ that was 18 percent better than the league average offensively. But this season Nootbaar has a .686 OPS, has homered every 46 at-bats, and has an OPS+ that’s eight percent below league average. Perhaps most glaringly of all: his .430 slugging percentage during 2022-2023 has fallen to .370 this year. That’s a huge drop of 60 points in slugging. The Cardinals and outfielders. The saga continues.

7. I want to see what’s left in the tank for Goldschmidt and Arenado. It’s a tiresome subject. We know all about their advancing age, the decreased home-run rate, the big pile of strikeouts (Goldy), the 15 double plays grounded into (Goldy) and Arenado’s 144-point drop in slugging percentage since his impressive 2022 season. The curiosity remains. And seeing how much is left will be helpful in plotting roster changes for 2025. Goldy is in the final year of his contract here, and Arenado’s big contract makes him difficult to trade. In the final 41 games, are Goldschmidt and Arenado capable of inspiring more confidence?

OTHER ITEMS OF POSSIBLE INTEREST

What Goes Up, Must Come Down: Especially for the Cardinals. Coming into Friday, the Redbirds are a full nine games behind the first-place Brewers again. The last time they trailed the Brewers by nine was after a loss at Milwaukee on May 11.

The Cards rapidly heated up after that, going 35-21 (.625) over their next 56 games. Their triumphant binge was capped by an action-filled doubleheader sweep of the Cubs at Busch Stadium on July 13. Suddenly, Milwaukee’s advantage over St. Louis had been sheared to just 3 and ½ games. The race was on!

At that point, via FanGraphs, the Cardinals had a 24 percent probability of winning the NL Central and a 47.2% shot of making the playoffs. That was a little more than a month and things were looking up for the feisty Cardinals!

And then came the recession. Since July 14 the Cardinals are 10-16 for a .385 winning percentage that represents the third-worst record in the NL over that time. And the Brewers revved up to go 15-10 (.600) for the NL’s third-best record during the stretch.

And that zig-zag pattern is how the Cardinals went from nine games out to 3 and ½ games out – and then back to being down nine again. If the opportunity they had before them after sweeping the Cubs on July 13 was a real thing, the Redbirds defaulted by allowing too many runs and not scoring enough runs.

During their season-changing 10-16 slide the Cardinals were outscored by 24 runs. And as of Friday morning FanGraphs rates the Cardinals’ chance of winning the division at 2 percent – down 22% from July 13. And Fangraphs has St. Louis with only a 5.4 percent probability of making the postseason – down 34.7 percent since July 13. Oh my.

Obligatory Standings Check: The Brewers, who will be here early next week, are safely in front of the NL Central riff raff as the weekend commences. They’re up by nine games over the Reds and Cardinals, lead the Cubs by 10 and ½, and have the Pirates wheezing at 12 and ½ games out of first.

Thanks for reading, and please have a swell weekend.

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. I’m up and running, and I’ll try to keep these episodes in the range of 10 to 14 minutes.

Please subscribe – thank you! – and here’s the link:

@TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: 7 Things I Want To See From The Cardinals In Their Remaining Games. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

Text message from a friend who loves the Cardinals and hates what he’s seeing from them. In a pathetically soft appearance, the Cardinals got swept and had the WKRP kicked out of them in Cincinnati for three straight nights. It was another disgusting turn in a season that has even the most loyal Cards fans seeing red.

“I thought we might see a manager fired today,” my friend wrote on Thursday morning. “The club just bottomed out in Cincy. Talent shortage is one thing, but the collective mood of that club is worse than dreary.”

If this continues there will be dismissals, demotion, and commotion. That’s based on my assumption that chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. still cares about winning and doing what’s necessary to reinvigorate a flat-lining team and restore the pride and and higher standards.

We can spend the next 41 games thinking about what should be done, and when it should be done, and who will be doing it and whether it will be enough to energize disillusioned fans. Every baseball person in the organization should be scrutinized and held accountable. I’m going to table the discussion for now, at least in this space. We will have plenty of time to trade ideas, debate, argue, jump onto X for spontaneous and overly hostile tweet wars …

Final thought on this: I would describe the outlook as something we often see on those big signs posted when a business is closing its doors for good.

EVERYTHING MUST GO!

In losing four in a row, the Cardinals were a sorry-looking bunch. In four savage slapdowns from the Royals and Reds, the Redbirds were out-scored 27-7, and out-homered 11-2. St. Louis pitchers were blistered for a 7.03 ERA.

When the Cardinals and their opponents came to the plate with runners in scoring position over the past four games, the respective numbers were both incredible and comical …

Cardinals with RISP: 5 for 28, .179, no extra-base hits, five singles. And 12 of the 28 at-bats (43%) were terminated by strikeouts. The Cardinals hit .218 overall, struck out 37 times, and stranded 28 mates on base. Do the Cardinals have a batting coach? Do they have a pulse?

Royals-Reds RISP: 13 for 36 (.361) with five home runs included in the pounding of 16 extra-base hits. Overall the two dominant opponents buffeted STL pitchers for a .592 slugging percentage, .942 OPS and 16 extra-base hits.

From a competitive standpoint – and from a St. Louis perspective – these four games were about as uncompetitive as could be. I thought no-compete clauses applied to business contracts – not the effort on a baseball field.

After the final flogging in Cincinnati, which sunk the Cardinals to 60-61, the players said all of the predictable stuff about still being in the postseason race, still believing, still working hard, refusing to give up … hell, go ahead and write your own boring cliches.

These statements were not supported by visual evidence as captured by the Bally Sports Midwest television cameras.

I would say that the Cardinals looked like a team that was packing it in for the season, but I suppose they have an opportunity to alter such opinions by reawakening and rising up to smote the beastly Dodgers, Brewers, Twins, Padres, Yankees and Brewers (again) over the next 19 games. And then they’ll take on a few other barbarians after that.

The Cardinals have the third-toughest remaining schedule among major-league teams. The Rays and the Royals supposedly have tougher schedules. I guess those teams will be playing series against the 1976 Reds, the 1927 Yankees, the 1942 Cardinals, the 1931 Philadelphia Athletics, the 1970 Orioles, and maybe the 1998 Yankees, the 1939 Yankees and the Homestead Grays.

ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT: The Cardinals are 12-19 in their last 31 games for a .387 winning percentage that ranks 28th overall and 14th in the National League … the Redbirds are 10-15 (.400) since the All-Star break, 6-9 (.400) since the trade deadline, and 4-9 (.308) in August … The Cardinals have been outscored 70-42 this month for a grotesque minus 28 run differential.

STANDINGS CHECK, OK, WHATEVER: The Cardinals and Reds trail the first-place Brewers by 8 and ½ games in the NL Central. This is STL’s largest deficit to the Brewers since being nine games out on May 11. The Reds are now even with the Cardinals after being 5 and ½ games behind the Cards on July 9.

Over on the runners-up side of the competition, the Braves are seated in the No. 3 wild-card tram, two games ahead of the Mets, and 4 and ½ above the Giants, Cardinals and Reds.

PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT: Here’s a sampling of today’s forecasts …

+ FanGraphs: Cards have a 2.4% chance of capturing the division, a 2.7% probability of securing a wild-card certificate, and a 5% dream of making the playoffs.

+ Clay Davenport: 2.5% chance of winning the division, a 2.1% shot at winning a wild-card license, and a 4.6% possibility of making it to the postseason tournament.

+ Bally Sports Midwest: the Redbirds have an 87 percent chance of winning the NL Central, a 98% probability of making the playoffs, and a 71% likelihood of winning the 2024 World Series.

CHASING THE WRONG KIND OF HISTORY: If the 2024 Cardinals finish with a losing record, they’d have two consecutive losing years in a full season for the first time since 1958-1959. The St. Louis front office needed to put more talent around the wonderful hitters Stan Musial and Ken Boyer and starting pitchers “Vinegar Bend” Mizell and Sam “Toothpick” Jones. But you can’t blame John Mozeliak.

STARTING PITCHING GOES BOOM: In the last 50 games, Cardinals starting pitchers have a radioactive 5.22 ERA that ranks 25th in the majors over that time.

The starters have 5.36 ERA since the beginning of July.

Halfway through August, the starters have been gouged for a 5.96 ERA that ranks 14th in the NL and 27th overall for the month.

OK, now take a look at these August earned-run averages, and it’s an unpleasant view.

• Sonny Gray, 4.74
• Andre Pallante, 5.23
• Erick Fedde, 5.63
• Kyle Gibson, 6.13
• Miles Mikolas, 10.13

This month, Gray, Gibson and Fedde collectively have been nuked for an astonishing 14 home runs in 52 and ⅔ innings.

At some point, I expect we’ll have some mainstream-media coverage of this serious rupture. No rush. The St. Louis has rotation has been imploding for only six or seven weeks.

I read something in The Athletic about how pitching isn’t the team’s biggest problem. Actually, the writer absolutely had many choices to ponder – putrid offense, the vanishing hitting with runners in scoring position, the failure to throw out base stealers, the front office, ownership, coaches, developing young pitchers, messing up young hitters – so I have empathy for any scribe who must identify the No. 1 problem.

OK, snark time is over for the day …

Thanks (as always) for reading …

–Bernie

Please check out my new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. I’m up and running. Please subscribe, thank you and here’s the link:

@TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: Is It Quitting Time For The Cardinals? We’ll Soon Find Out. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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As the Cardinals strutted to a 33-18 record over a two-month period earlier this season, they had the look of a postseason-bound team. Good times! But the dance music stopped and the lights were turned off. What happened? Why is it suddenly so quiet and dark and shadowy? Why are we doing all of this grumbling?

And why, oh why, is that sinking 2023 feeling coming back again?

Well, the Cardinals have reverted to who they really are. We enjoyed the fun while it lasted … but it couldn’t last. And that’s the point.

The 33-18 wasn’t exactly a mirage – but it was misleading. Think back to the awful start to the season, with the Redbirds 24 of their first 39 games. Think about what we’ve seen recently: a St. Louis team that has the NL’s second-worst record (12-19) since July 10.

The Cardinals were nine games under .500 before the lights were turned on, and they’re nine games under .500 since the lights were switched off.

Except for their 33-18 streak, the Cardinals are 27-53, and they’re much closer in form and identity to the 27-53 version – not the 33-18 version.

Run differential isn’t a perfect measure. To earn credibility as a solid team – not a fluke – it’s important to outscore the opposition over the course of the season. When the opposition outscores you by a wide margin over the course of a season, then it’s a warning sign: be careful. Even with a hot streak in there, that team may be spurious.

The definition of spurious is, “ostensibly valid, but not actually valid,” and I think that description applies to the 2024 Cardinals.

Run differential is interesting in other ways.

The Cincinnati Reds have been outscoring teams like crazy this season. And though they’ve won four in a row and have moved into a second place tie with the Cardinals in the NL Central, the Reds still have a losing record. But their players have pointed to a positive run differential — it’s now plus 55 — and used it to maintain confidence. Eventually, the Reds thought, that favorable run differential would be converted into a higher win total. Their hopes hadn’t been extinguished.

As Cincinnati pitcher Emilio Pagan told The Athletic: “It’s kind of an annoying answer for fans, but you look at our run differential and you can see that we’re playing better ball than our record says we’ve played. That’s something we’ve had to hold on to and we’re going to hold on to moving forward.”

But then there are teams like the Cardinals. Their run differential is frightful, but their record has stayed above it. That’s changing. The Redbirds are learning that it isn’t easy to run away from a gross run differential. It’s usually a defining stat.

There can be exceptions, with a few teams overcoming a negative run differential to sneak into the playoffs. The 1987 Minnesota Twins even won a World Series after being on the wrong side of the run-differential divide.

But let’s focus on the current format. The 2023 Arizona Diamondbacks (84-78) barely made the tournament but staged an October Surprise. The Snakes could not be stopped until the Texas Rangers flattened them in the World Series.

At the end of the 2023 regular season, Arizona had a minus 15 run differential, but that was OK because the third wild-card ticket was still available.

The Diamondbacks grabbed that No. 3 wild card but wouldn’t have made the playoffs under the previous format. MLB shifted from two to three wild cards in each league before the 2022 season, and the expanded tournament gives mediocre teams a chance to get in.

With 41 games to go on their schedule, the 2024 Cardinals are trying to work their way out of an avalanche. Their run differential is minus 63 after losing four straight games and getting outscored 27-7 by the Royals and Reds.

If the Cards stay down and out in the RD category, the playoffs seem highly unlikely, even with the extra slot.

If there’s a race, it’ll be the Cardinals vs. the Cardinals.

As in winning season, or losing season?

The Cardinals are the opposite of a quality baseball team. The starting pitching is collapsing, the bullpen is roiling, and a vapid offense has too many underachievers, too many holes, and no real solutions.

No Cardinal team – any era – has invaded the playoffs in a full season with a negative run differential.

If the 2024 Cardinals ended with a negative 63 run differential, it would be the fourth worst by the franchise in a full season during the expansion era (1961-present.)

So the odds are stacked against the Cardinals in 2024. And even if you’re inspired by what Arizona did last fall, there’s something to consider.

Based on their run differential, the 2023 Diamondbacks should have been 80-82 on the season. That was their “expected” record. And it would have left them out of the playoffs, even with the third wild card up for grabs. And that was a team with a negative 15 run differential. This 2024 STL team is much shabbier than that.

The wretched 2023 Cardinals (71-91) had a brutal minus 110 run differential. How bad was that? Only the 1916 Cardinals (minus 153) had a more detrimental run differential in a season of 154 games or more.

OK, here’s something else you should know about the 2023 team’s minus 110 run differential.

Through 121 games, the 2023 Cardinals were 54-67.

This season, based on the runs-scored, runs-against gap, the 2024 Cardinals should have the that same record — 54-67 — through their first 121 games.

My goodness.

That’s jolting.

If you still have thoughts about the 2024 Cardinals rallying to make the playoffs, you might want to rethink it. In reality, the 2024 Cardinals are much closer to being the 2023 Cardinals than a postseason-bound team.

I’ll have another column for you in a while.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. I’m up and running, and I’ll try to keep these episodes in the range of 10 to 14 minutes.

Please subscribe, and here’s the link:

@TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie On The Cardinals: Oh, No! Why Does It Feel Like 2023 Again? appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

Lost in the caterwauling over the destitute St. Louis offense were the cracking sounds of a heavy baseball bat blasting pitches served by a Cards starter. It is an alarming noise that warns us of the severe damage to come. It means that another Redbirds starting pitcher is getting beaten up. It happened again Tuesday night before thousands of eyewitnesses at the ballpark in Cincinnati. This time, the punching bag was newcomer Erick Fedde.

In the first two games of the series, the Reds jumped Sonny Gray and Fedde for 10 earned runs and five homers in only 11 innings. The Cincinnati batsmen who came to the plate against the two St. Louis starters walloped a home run every 9.2 at-bats. Boom goes the dynamite.

The Reds have smoked the Cardinals over two consecutive evenings by a combined score of 10-2. If you include the first defeat in the current three-game losing skid and add the Royals in there, STL has given up 18 runs and plated only five.

This is not an ideal way to begin a big, bold push for a playoff spot. Instead, the Cardinals are drifting in the opposite direction. Instead of making that push for October, they’re getting pushed around. Instead of gaining ground in the standings they are rolling around on the ground under a pile of bad losses.

As I noted in my first column today, since STL’s 33-18 run of good baseball came to an end, the Redbirds have flopped to a 12-18 record since July 10. Their .400 winning percentage over that time ranks 14th among 15 National League teams 27th overall among the 30 franchises. We can parse it out with revealing details. The Cardinals are 10-14 since the All-Star break, 6-8 since the trade deadline, and 4-8 in August.

And a huge factor in the implosion is the deteriorating state of the Cardinals’ starting pitching. When your team is so starved for runs because of its malfunctioning offense, the worst that can happen is a collapse of the starting pitching. And we’re basically watching that happen. As we bellyache over the offense, it’s important to put more attention on the state of the rotation. I’m not sure why this has been largely ignored by local media … but I digress.

Since July 1, the Cardinals have a 5.28 ERA through the first three innings of a game. That has led to early deficits and tough circumstances. Since July 1, the Cardinals are 3-9 when trailing after three innings, 4-7 when trailing after four innings and 4-13 when trailing after five. Good luck making comebacks with this Cardinal offense.

Going into the season, we knew that the Cardinals had four starting pitchers that were at least 34 years old. As a group, Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn had an average age of 35.5 years. The fifth starter, Steven Matz, was 33. (Per usual, he broke down early with an injury.) The Cardinals had to cover for the Matz absence, but a lack of starting-pitching depth made it hard. There was some scrambling until the Cardinals belatedly inserted a younger starter – the 25-year old Andre Pallante – into the rotation on May 29.

For the most part, the Cardinal starters were pretty solid over the first three months. But the busy schedule tested the pitchers’ endurance. The weather turned warmer and then hotter. For the most part, the top four starters did a pretty good job of providing innings, but the quality of the pitching worsened. The question of having so many starting pitchers in their mid-to-late 30s became more relevant. And that’s what we were wondering about, right? Would these salty veterans hold up?

Here’s a quick look at how the rotation evolved through time.

+ Over the first three months of the season, through the end of June, St. Louis had a 4.18 starting-pitching ERA that ranked a decent 17th overall.

+ During the team’s 33-18 run that began May 12 and went through July 8, the rotation ERA held steady at 4.20.

+ The rotation had a 5.04 ERA in July.

+ The rotation has a 5.56 ERA in August.

+ And the ERA for July-August combined is 5.21, which ranks 26th over that time.

+ Since the end of the team’s hot streak on July 8, the starting pitchers have a 5.02 ERA. And the Cardinals have a 12-18 record.

The solid rotation gave the Cardinals a chance to get through some early–season storms and was a plus when the team began an extensive stretch of winning baseball on Mother’s Day. But this was always a fragile rotation, mostly because of the age factor, and it’s easy to see the pattern here: playing blocks of games with few days off. A more rugged schedule. The rising summer temperatures. The result: ERA inflation. And it shouldn’t be a surprise. This was one of our concerns.

President of baseball operations John Mozeliak and staff pulled off a widely praised trade by acquiring Erick Fedde, age 31, from the White Sox. But Fedde’s arrival did not immediately change the dynamics of a fading rotation.

Here are the individual earned-run averages since July 1:

• Andre Pallante, 3.97 ERA in 8 starts
• Lance Lynn, 4.66 ERA in 8 starts
• Kyle Gibson, 5.06 ERA in 8 starts
• Sonny Gray, 5.30 ERA in 9 starts
• Miles Mikolas, 6.56 ERA in 9 starts
• Erick Fedde, 5.63 ERA in 3 starts.

Is it a coincidence to see the youngest starter (Pallante) have the best ERA over the last 1 and ½ months? Is it surprising to see Pallante yielding an average of just 0.4 homers per nine innings when most of the older starters are being used as launching pads for rocket-shot homers?

If you remove Pallante from the group and focus on the numbers attached to the four older starters, this is what we see:

Gray, Gibson, Mikolas, Lynn and Fedde have been rocked for 93 earned runs in 154 innings for a collective 5.43 ERA since the start of July. And the four starters have also been ripped for 28 homers (combined) and have a group home-run rate of nearly 2 bombs per nine innings.

These guys do worse when losing the home-field protection that Busch Stadium provides. The STL starters haven’t been good at home since July 1, pitching to a 4.83 ERA. But at least Busch gives them some shelter, and they’ve allowed fewer home runs there – only 10 in 87 and ⅔ innings.

On the road it’s a different sound … that loud crack of the bat. The St. Louis starters have a gross July-August road ERA of 5.51. They’ve gotten shelled for 22 homers in 114 innings. They’ve been muscled for a .481 slugging percentage in the enemy venues.

Here are the road ERAs since July 1:

• Pallante, 1.45 ERA in 3 starts, and 1 HR allowed
• Mikolas, 4.45 ERA in 5 starts, and 1 HR
• Gibson, 4.56 ERA in 4 starts, and 3 HRs
• Gray, 6.75 ERA in 4 starts, and 9 HRs.
• Fedde: 7.36 ERA in 2 starts, and 4 HRs
• Lynn, 11.74 ERA in 2 starts, and 3 HRs.

I still laugh at the distinct possibility of the Cardinals removing Pallante from the rotation when Lynn returns (soon) from the IL. That would be such a Cardinal Thing, right? These people are pretty poor at evaluating talent and performance and attaching payroll considerations to their decisions. If the Cardinals pull the one fresh arm out of the rotation to stick with the old dudes – well, perhaps the opposing-team hitters will send a gift basket to the Cardinals as a gesture of thanks.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. I’m up and running, and I’ll try to keep these episodes in the range of 10 to 14 minutes.

Please subscribe – thank you! – and here’s the link:

@TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: An Aging Cardinals Rotation Isn’t Holding Up In The Summer Heat. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

You may have noticed: the St. Louis Cardinals have a phlegmatic offense. This is a fancy way of saying they have a bad offense. II must use big words to keep myself entertained.

And of course you’ve noticed. This is hardly breaking news, or a problem that’s suddenly surfaced over the last 48 hours.

The affliction has been there all season. Actually, it’s been a problem for a long time. And parting ways with batting coach Jeff Albert didn’t solve the problem. He was the scapegoat, and it didn’t matter if he was fired or made a personal decision to move on.

Albert was a distraction. Firing him (or whatever) created another distraction, as the Cardinals changed the subject and tried to score cheap points with the fans. Look! We’re doing something! Are you happy now?

Um, no. Actually, it’s gotten worse. Over a two-season period, 2021 and 2022, the Cardinals ranked 11th in runs scored. But over the last two seasons, the Redbirds are 24th in runs scored.

This is what happens when two cornerstone players – Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado – get older and hit with reduced impact. This is what happens when a sequence of exciting young hitters get to the big leagues and stall out. Why is that? This is what happens when the front office overrates the team’s position-player roster and doesn’t make major changes. Many of the hitters who were swinging away for the Cardinals in 2023 are still hacking away here in 2024. This is what happens when your big offseason moves, offensively, were to sign Brandon Crawford (age 37) and Matt Carpenter (age 38) to serve as elder leaders and linchpins for the bench.

And some of the stuff going on – right now, in real time – is simply bewildering. The Cardinals demoted second-year outfielder Jordan Walker to Triple A Memphis early this season, giving him time to retool his hitting mechanics. The front office excitedly brought Jordan back to the big club after he’d generated a fusillade of offense against minor-league pitchers for a couple of weeks.

As I wrote, I believed it was the right move to summon Walker; he seemingly rejoined the Cardinals as a more confident and capable hitter. He seemed pumped to spark a dull offense. After a downturn, the young Walker was poised to restore his bright future. “JW” was still only 22 years old, and he’d put up above-average numbers as a rookie in 2023.

After hustling to Cincinnati, Walker was in the lineup for Monday’s game against left-handed starter Andrew Abbott and went 0 for 3 with a walk. Then came Tuesday’s game, and Walker wasn’t in the lineup. He sat because the Reds started their ace-caliber starting pitcher, Hunter Greene. And Walker, of course, bats from the right side. But manager Oli Marmol wanted to stack the lineup with left-handed hitters against Greene, and Walker didn’t fit the platoon-system plan.

This was wrong on several levels.

1. Has this organization completely lost its collective mind? The Cardinals welcomed Walker back to the majors with the idea of turning him into a part-time platoon bat? What? If you’re going to promote Walker, he has to play. Period. He can’t be sitting around. And if the Cards weren’t committed to using Walker in a starting role, then he should have stayed in Memphis. He won’t get better against major-league pitching if he’s parked on the bench. PLAY THE MAN.

2. Walker had success against Greene in the minors, going 4 for 7. Yes, that’s a tiny speck of a sample. But Marmol didn’t hesitate to go with a sliver-sized sample to justify starting Crawford in a recent game because the veteran infielder had good career numbers against the other team’s starting pitchers. But because Crawford’s numbers were so old and outdated, it made them absolutely irrelevant. Different standards for different players. Crawford is a one-year backup on the far downside of his career who doesn’t do much of anything. Walker was STL’s No. 1 prospect not too long ago – and again, he hit very well as a big-league rookie in 2023 – but that doesn’t count for much.

Oh, yeah and the Cardinals scored one run in Tuesday’s loss to the Reds, with Walker watching the game as a spectator.

3. Walker has been more effective against right-handed pitchers than lefties. I don’t want to bore you with a mountain of stats. I’ll just leave it at this: over the last two seasons, in the majors and the minors combined, Walker has a higher batting average, onbase percentage and slugging rate when facing right-handed pitchers. His stats vs. lefties are nothing special.

Here we go again.

The Cardinals and young outfielders. It just never ends.

BIRD BYTES

– The Cardinals have lost three in a row, scoring five total runs across 27 innings of at-bats. The Royals (Saturday) and Reds (Monday-Tuesday) outscored St. Louis 18-5. In the three straight defeats, the Cardinals batted .194, struck out 30 times, walked only six times, and left 28 men on base.

– The Cardinals are 12-18 since July 10 for a .400 winning percentage that ranks 14th in the National League and 27th overall over the last month of games. They also have a minus 23 run differential over the 30 games.

– St. Louis is 4-8 in August; the only NL team worse than that this month are the Pirates, who are a ghastly 1-10.

– The Cards are a disappointing 6-8 since acquiring starting pitcher Erick Fedde and outfielder Tommy Pham at the trade deadline.

– Fedde has a 5.63 ERA in three starts for the Cardinals. He’s allowed four home runs and a .500 slugging percentage. Fedde is fitting right in with a declining St. Louis rotation.

— In Fedde’s two road starts for the Cards, he’s been smashed for nine earned runs and four homers in 11 innings for a 7.36 ERA and an opponent slugging percentage of .605.

– The Cardinals (60-60) have returned to .500 for the first time since sitting at 37-37 after beating the Giants in Birmingham on June 20.

– The Cardinals, as we know, had a 33-18 record in 51 games from May 12 through July 8. But before and after that streak, their record is 27-42 for a .391 winning percentage.

– The Cards are averaging only 3.3 runs per game in August. Among the 30 MLB offenses, the Cardinals rank 24th this month in batting average, 25th in onbase percentage, 26th in slugging, and 28th in OPS.

– Another August note: the Cardinals are 30th with a .146 average and a .191 slug with runners in scoring position this month. And they are tied for last with 20 RBIs when batting with runners in position to score. And the Cardinals are the only major-league team that doesn’t have a home run this month in RISP situations.

– After dumping the Cardinals in two straight games, the Reds are only two games behind the second-place Redbirds in the NL Central standings. The first-place Brewers lost Tuesday and still lead the Cardinals by 7 and ½ games.

– Nolan Arenado delivered STL’s only run with a solo homer Tuesday. It was his 12th HR of the season. In his last 19 games, Arenado is batting .300 with a .471 slugging percentage and .827 OPS. And he has two doubles, two homers and 12 RBIs over that time. The third baseman is batting .340 since July 29.

– The Cardinals and Giants are both 3 and ½ games out of the NL’s third wild-card spot. And the Cardinals and Giants are 1 and ½ games behind the Mets, who are fourth in the wild-card safari. The Braves hold the third wild-card spot and lead the Mets by two.

– After getting slapped around by the Reds over the last two nights, the Cardinals have a 4.4 percent chance at winning the division, a 4.5% shot at claiming a wild card, and have an overall postseason probability of 8.9%. That’s according to the FanGraphs Playoff Odds. The esteemed Clay Davenport assesses STL’s postseason probability even lower at 7.2 percent.

– Over his last 19 games, Alec Burleson is batting .192 with a .241 onbase percentage and a weak .281 slug. The Cardinals need the big fella to get going again.

– The Cardinals had only four hits Tuesday and went 0 for 5 with runners in scoring position. Three times in this game Cardinals had a runner at third but each at-bat ended with strikeouts by Nolan Gorman, Burleson, and Willson Contreras.

– It was another rough game for Gorman, who went 0 for 3 with two strikeouts. The nightmare stretch continues for the erstwhile left-swinging slugger. Since June 5, Norman has batted .172 with an anemic .299 slugging percentage and has stuck out in 40.4 percent of his plate appearances. Since June 5, Gorman has a ratio of 15.2 strikeouts for every home run during that time.

Note: I have some appointments that I must tend to, but I will return later with my second column of the day.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. I’m up and running, and I’ll try to keep these episodes in the range of 10 to 14 minutes.

Please subscribe – thank you! – and here’s the link:

@TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: The Cardinals Promoted Jordan Walker. So Why Was He Sitting On The Bench In Last Night’s Loss? appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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How do I put this? When Sonny Gray pitches at Busch Stadium this season, he has an ERA that would be deemed acceptable by the young version of Adam Wainwright. Really good! But when Gray pitches on the road, oh my, he’s Kip Wells, circa 2007. Really bad!

Let’s get to the numbers.

Gray was clobbered Monday in Cincinnati, as the Reds cudgeled him for three homers and six runs in five innings. This fit into his pattern.

Gray has made 10 starts at home, and 10 on the road this season.

And these home/road splits are bananas.

— ERA: 2.66 home, 5.43 road.

— HRs allowed: 3 at home, 14 road.

— HRs per 9 innings: 0.4 home, 2.1 road.

— Opponent slug pct: .288 home, .518 road.

The Cardinals have a 6-4 record when Gray starts at Busch Stadium, and a 4-6 record when he pitches out of town. It could be worse.

Other noteworthy items:

* Gray has a 5.89 road ERA since June 1.

* Gray’s 5.43 road ERA ranks 80th among 88 pitchers that have made at least 10 road starts this season.

* Gray’s home-run rate of 2.1 homers per nine innings on the road ranks 85th among 88 starters.

* The road slugging percentage against Gray (.518) ranks 83rd among 88 starters.

* And yet: Gray’s 31.7 percent strikeout rate on the road is third-best among the 88 starters. He gets them to swing and miss a lot, and gets them to strike out and sit down. But when the hitters make contact in their home ballpark with Gray as the visiting pitcher … rockets red glare.

* In Gray’s home starts, opponents have a 36.2 percent hard-hit rate and a 2.9% barrel rate against the right-hander. In Gray’s road starts, opponents have a 43 percent hard-hit rate and 9.4% barrel rate against him.

As for the home field advantage, Gray is one of the best starters in baseball in 2014. His 2.66 ERA ranks 14th among starters with at least 10 home assignments. His HR rate of 0.4 per nine innings is tied for second best. And he’s been touched for a .288 home slugging percentage that ranks third among starters.

I know that Busch Stadium provides a friendlier setting for pitchers, but that doesn’t justify the the severity of the thumpings that Gray endures on the road.

And it doesn’t make a whole lotta sense. Even with the carnage on the road this season, Gray still has a better career road ERA (3.38) than home ERA (3.62). I wanted to check on Gray’s past two seasons with the Twins and there was nothing unusual about his home/road splits. He had a 2.67 ERA in 30 home starts, and a 3.19 ERA in 26 road starts. And the home-run rate was low, real low, in both home and road games – around 0.5 homers per nine innings. The road slugging percentage against Gray in 2022-2023 was .348.

So what, if anything explains this? Well, I could blame it on those shoddy-looking uniforms that MLB assigned for 2024. And if you watched Gray pitch, you’ve seen him tugging on his belt, and pulling up his britches when he leaves the mound after getting the third out of an inning. He sure looks uncomfortable.

On a more serious note: I’ll present some of my findings that I pulled out when digging through the wonderful world of Statcast late Tuesday afternoon. The numbers that I’m about to share are shockingly bad.

1. Hitters are punishing Gray’s four-seam fastballs and sinkers when he pitches on the road. They’ve put 65 of those pitches in play, and when that happens the slugging percentage is … wait for it … 1.077.

2. Gray has been blasted for 14 road homers. Si came on the four-seam fastball, and six were ripped on his sinker. There were a couple of doubles and a triple mixed in there.

3. On the four-seam and sinker in Gray’s road games, the hard-hit rate is 63.6 percent. And the barrel rate is … wait for it … 50 percent. Yes, I typed 50%. That’s amazing — but not in a good way for Gray and the Cardinals.

4. When hitters put the four-seam or sinker in the air when Gray works on the road, the average distance on fly balls is 359 feet. That’s deep.

5. And the 12 road homers cited here launched on those two types of pitches had an average home-run distance of 407 feet. The average distance on all 14 of the road homers powered against Gray this season have traveled 408 feet. That’s a long way from home plate.

Mercy. But this fits into a problematic development: the team’s starting pitching has slowly melted and softened as the hot weather moved in. Gray isn’t the only one. He’s just the guy making the most money and has the “ace” label glued to him. That leads to more scrutiny of his pitching.

Thanks for reading …and please pardon my typos.

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. I’m up and running, and I’ll try to keep these episodes in the range of 10 to 14 minutes.

Please subscribe – thank you! – and here’s the link:

@TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie On The Cardinals: Sonny Gray’s Home/Road Splits This Season Are Bananas. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

The Cardinals lost again Monday, going into the automaton mode to accept a 6-1 beatdown by the Reds in Cincinnati. This was a bad one. It was also the new normal. By now, no one should be surprised to see the Cardinals get flattened in a game.

I know that my Bruce Springsteen references can be annoying (sorry), but in thinking about the path the Cardinals are on, I’m hearing a song in my head. It’s actually one of my favorites.

Downbound Train.

To quote from the song: “Don’t you feel like you’re a rider on a downbound train?”

Current Trend: 12-17 record since July 10 for a .414 winning percentage that ranks 26th overall and 13th in the National League. The St. Louis run differential in those 29 games is minus 20.

Offense: During the 12-17 freeze, the Cardinal offense has scored four or fewer runs 18 times. And their record in the 18 low-scoring games is 3-15.

Overall pitching: since July 10 the Cardinals have a staff ERA of 4.88, which ranks 22nd overall. During the team’s 33-18 runaway stretch that began May 12, the staff ERA was the fifth-best in the majors at 3.67.

Starting pitching: During the 33-18 run, the Cardinal starters posted a 4.20 ERA that was right around the league average. But in this 12-17 downturn, their starter ERA ranks 23rd overall at an abysmal 4.98.

The Bullpen: Up until July 10, the St. Louis relievers ranked sixth in the majors with a 3.40 ERA, and had allowed only 26.2 percent of runners on base to score. That was the seventh-best strand rate in the majors. But as the Cardinals have sputtered in losing 17 of their last 29 games, bullpen ERA ranks 21st at 4.72, and are 26th in percentage of baserunners (33.3%) that come around to score.

The Defense: The Reds went 3-for-3 in stealing bases Monday, and this team’s horrendous inability to stop the opponent’s running game is an embarrassment. The Cardinals have been victimized for the most steals (113) in the majors this season. And their catcher caught-stealing rate of 14 percent ranks 29th among the 30 teams. The Redbirds are otherwise good in the field season, improving to seventh in majors with 33 defensive runs saved. But why is this team so utterly helpless to stop runners from swiping bags? The catchers get the blame, but too many people seem to forget that pitchers play a role in letting runners go for easy steals. All I know is this: the problem is extreme and isn’t getting better. The Cardinals haven’t done a damn thing to slow opponents down.

OK, now go ahead and pick out something from that pile that tells you the Cardinals are about to soar. Their offense is shut down too many times, and too easily. Their struggle to cash in runners in scoring position is an abomination. Opponents run like wild on the bases with no deterrent to steal sacks.

The quality of the starting pitching has declined, and a proud but worn bullpen is more conquerable. In Monday’s lopsided loss, the frustrated manager Oli Marmol was ejected for the fourth time this season — hollering about the strike zone — but the theatrics failed to fire up the squad.

ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT: The Cardinals are 60-59 on the campaign, and 4-7 in August. According to the projections at Fangraphs, the Redbirds have a 4.6 percent crack at winning the NL Central and a 6.6 percent shot of claiming a wild-card spot. STL’s overall probability for making the playoffs is 11.2 percent; eight NL teams have better odds than that.

WAITIN’ ON A SONNY GRAY: OK, there was another Springsteen song-title reference – a play on words if you will, and I couldn’t resist. But we are waiting on Sonny Gray to live up to the advance billing of a No. 1 starter. The Reds bludgeoned Gray for three homers and six earned runs in five innings. He’s been struck for five earned runs or more in five of his last seven starts and has a 5.86 ERA over the seven outings. I’ll have more on Gray in my second column of the day – which will arrive in another hour or so.

NO-SHOW OFFENSE: The Cardinals had multiple chances to break through on lefty Reds starter Andrew Abbott, including bases-full opportunities in the second and third innings. But for all of that, they scratched out only one run on an RBI single by Nolan Arenado in the third. Here’s the saddest stat: after Paul Goldschmidt’s infield single with two outs in the third, the Cardinals went 1 for 21 over the final six-plus innings of their loss.

Cardinal hitters struck out nine times in the game. The Cards were 2 for 7 with men on base and 0 for 2 with the bases loaded. The Cardinals have the worst batting average by an NL team (.173) when hitting with the bases loaded this season.

ALLERGIC REACTION TO LEFTIES: Andrew Abbott didn’t have much trouble disposing of a couple of jams and gave up one run in 6 and ⅔ innings. This season lefty starters have a 3.84 ERA against St. Louis and have permitted a .679 OPS.

Marmol loaded his starting lineup with seven right-handed hitters. They went 5 for 20 (.250) with two walks against the lefty Abbott, but with little damage. Four of the five hits were singles, and Paul Goldschmidt had a double. The top three hitters in the lineup were all RH bats — Masyn Winn, Willson Contreras and Tommy Pham. But they combined to go 1 for 11 with four strikeouts.

This season STL’s right-handed hitters rank no better than 20th in the majors in the pertinent hitting categories when competing against left-handed pitchers. The worst parts are the .388 slugging percentage (24th), 21 home runs (24th) and .700 OPS (24th).

BIRD BYTES

1) The Reds (58-61) are two games behind the Cardinals in the NL Central.

2) The Cardinals are 17-20 against NL Central rivals this season. But it hasn’t gone well as of late; the Cardinals have lost six of their last eight division games, and are 4-8 against NL Central rivals since the last series before the All-Star break.

3) The Cards are 29-32 on the road.

4) The first-place Brewers have a deeper lineup than the Cardinals. Which is stating the obvious. But since their best hitter, Christian Yelich, went to the IL on July 24, the Crew has averaged 5.2 runs per game, bashed 23 homers, hit .269, reached base 34 percent of the time, and slugged .442. Milwaukee is 9-8 since Yelich went down. The Cardinals are 7-11 since Yelich went down. And over that time, the Cards’ offensive numbers are weaker than Milwaukee’s.

5) Nolan Arenado keeps getting his hits, and I’m pleased to acknowledge that. He’s leading the Cardinals with a .341 batting average in August, which increased his batting average to .271 on the season.

6) But Arenado remains stuck on 11 home runs for the season. He hasn’t gone deep in his last 15 games. This season 99 big-league hitters have more home runs than Arenado. And 105 batters have posted a higher slugging percentage than Arenado’s .388. Arenado’s slug is .357 over his last 15 games. Arenado has only four homers since the start of July.

7) Since becoming a Cardinal in 2021, Arenado has hit six or more home runs in seven different months, and has put up at least five home runs in a month four times. This season his best home-run total for a month, so far, is four. He did so in May and July.

8) Tommy Pham has cooled, having gone 1 for 14 in his last four games.

9) Looking forward to seeing how Erick Fedde will fare in his start inside the Great American Small Park this evening.

10) JJ Wetherholt, the seventh overall pick in this year’s MLB draft, has a .452 onbase percentage and .433 slug in his first 10 games for the Cardinals’ Class A affiliate in Palm Beach. In his last two games, Wetherhold had three hits, two walks and five RBIs. How soon can he get to St. Louis? OK, I’m kidding … I think.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. I’m up and running, and I’ll try to keep these episodes in the range of 10 to 14 minutes.

Please subscribe – thank you! – and here’s the link:

@TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Statcast, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: It Feels Like The Cardinals Are Riders On A Downbound Train. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

5 Reasons Why The Cardinals
Made The Right Call
In Promoting Jordan Walker
From Triple A Memphis …

1. Walker earned it. The promising and talented young hitter, still only 22, had a very good rookie season in 2023. Sure, there were some hard times along the way, but Walker finished with a .276 average, .342 onbase percentage, .445 slugging percentage and an OPS+ that put him 13 percent above league average offensively. He also ripped 16 homers and 19 doubles. Nothing to complain about there for a dude that had never played a game above the Double A level in the minors. But MLB pitchers found his weakness: pitches low and away, getting him to chase. And that’s how they attacked the second-year Walker from the get-go in the first month this season. He batted .155. He needed a reset in Memphis. It took him a long time to find the groove, but Walker started going off on July 24. Between then and the promotion, he batted .343 with a .400 OBP and .687 slug for a 1.087 OPS.

2. The Cardinals gave Walker a list of things to work on to become more successful in the majors. Suggestions that could make him more capable in maximizing his rich talent and raw power. And over several months, Walker implemented those suggestions, one by one. It was a difficult process, but he checked every box …

– Stopped chasing as many low–and-away pitches out of the strike zone.

– Came to understand that his power would never fully reach the desired and expected levels unless he pulled the ball in the air – fly balls, line drives, etc.

– Hitting fewer ground balls. Since July 24, Walker’s ground-ball rate was 44 percent … still on the high side but not drastically so. And more importantly, Walker hit fly balls and line drives (combined) at a rate of 52 percent. Walker still isn’t pulling pitches as much as we’d like to see, but he’s made enough progress to warrant a return to The Lou.

— There’s real evidence to support the impact of his modifications. Since July 24, Walker has averaged a little over 92 mph in average exit velocity. Definitely better. He’s attacked with a 48.1 percent hard-hit rate. Wonderfully better. He’s centered pitches with a 14.7 percent barrel rate. Significantly better.

— This one jumped out at me: Walker had an average distance of 312 feet on fly balls before July 24. But from that point on, his average fly ball distance increased to 330 feet. That’s big.

— The combination of these factors came together in a way that enabled Walker to recently crank home runs that traveled 425 feet, 434 feet, and 446 feet.

So after the student learned the lessons and successfully applied them and developed a more foundational set of skills (and underlying metrics) to improve … What, are you going to tell him to stay there in Memphis? With this mediocre offense in St. Louis? All of Walker’s patient, hard work didn’t warrant a comeback with the Cardinals?

I’m sorry, I didn’t realize the Cardinals are overloaded with extraordinary hitters and had no room for Walker. Pardon my sarcasm. But this fretting over Walker … and the idea that it is too soon to bring him back … well, I disagree. Walker has punished big-league pitchers before; he it a lot in 2023. He just needed to fully accept and grasp the importance of doing things in a better and smarter way to enhance his natural talent and strength.

3. The Cardinals needed Walker. As you’ve noticed, they are short on right-handed hitters. Only two Cardinals that have been here all season – Willson Contreras and Masyn Winn – are safely above the league average in wRC+, which is a better version of OPS+. (In case you’re wondering, wRC+ adjusts for ballpark and league effects.) Depending on how the lineup is filled out each day, Walker’s right-handed swing will get at-bats four or five times per game. And that RH bat can be used to pinch hit and give the Cardinals a more dangerous matchup in close, late-inning settings.

4. The Cardinals needed Walker’s right-handed bat in their outfield. This is one of the most ridiculous stats of the year in Cards baseball: in all of the plate appearances by STL outfielders this season, only 12 percent were taken by right-handed hitters. (This includes the times when switch-hitter Dylan Carlson batted from the right side.) Excluding at-bats at the DH spot, only three right-handed hitting outfielders came to the plate for the Cardinals this season: Walker early this season, Carlson until he was traded, and Tommy Pham – who played his first game for the 2024 Cardinals on July 30. How crazy is that?

In 167 plate appearances this season, RH batters used as outfielders by the Cardinals have collectively hit only .211 with a .281 OBP and .333 slug. Oh, and there’s been just one homer – by Pham – and 16 RBIs … six by Pham. And Pham just got here! (Tommy’s other homer came as a pinch-hitter, when he launched a memorable grand-slam homer to help beat the Rangers in his first game since the trade. Considering all of that stuff — so bad — why the heck would anyone disapprove of adding Walker to the mix?

By the way: I am convinced that Pham will be a positive influence on Walker. Pham can be the best teacher and advisor that Walker can have – and that includes batting coaches.

5. The desire to prove it: This is an abstract view, but I believe another reason the Cardinals went with Walker right now stems from wanting to prove they can develop young hitters at the major-league level. The success has been limited in recent years; I’m thinking of Tommy Edman, Alec Burleson, Brendan Donovan and rookie Masyn Winn. And even with the three that remain here (Burleson, Donovan, Winn) there’s still much to prove, long term.

But think about the guys who never or rarely reached their potential with the Cardinals. Two are still here (Nolan Gorman, Lars Nootbaar) and can develop, but are going through hideous struggles these days. The key here is enduring success — and not just a getting hot for a few weeks, a couple of months, or one season. Names: Dylan Carlson, Tyler O’Neill, Lane Thomas.

And then there were the young hitters who weren’t given an extensive shot at playing time here Cardinals moving on and thriving for their new employers: Randy Arozarena, Adolis Garcia and Tommy Pham. O’Neill looks like he’s doing the same. And so, to an extent, is Lane Thomas. It’s way to soon to know with Carlson.

Pham? Yes, Pham. He had more of a chance here than Arozarena and Garcia, but the Cardinals blundered by trading Pham at the deadline in 2018. Look, manager Mike Matheny didn’t like Pham and Tommy’s straight-shooting candor, his sincere questioning of decisions, etc. But that wasn’t a reason to trade Pham … and certainly not after firing Matheny.

OK, so what can the front office, the manager and the coaches say if Walker becomes the latest heralded Cardinal – the next future star – to disappoint and depart? The questions will come blowing in …. why does this keep happening? Why can’t your major-league staff fix young hitters in St. Louis?

Hey, at this moment the worst thing the front office could do is get scared or nervous and play it real safe by keeping Walker at Memphis. If John Mozeliak, Oli Marmol and others really believe in Walker, then it was time to welcome him back.

With Jordan Walker, the Cardinals are a long way from anything that matches the labels of big-time bust or bitter disappointment. If Walker goes flops, the Cardinals will be shredded by critics for their failure with yet another young hitter. Let’s hope that Walker can avoid the same fate – and spend a long time doing great things over many years for the St. Louis Cardinals.

Thanks for reading …

It’s been a busy day here at the Miklasz Content Farm — two columns, two videos and a podcast — so please pardon my typos or minor boo-boos.

–-Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. I’ll be doing these at least five times per week, and will limit each episode to 10 to 14 minutes.

Please subscribe – thank you! – and here’s the link:

@TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link. We recorded a new one today, Aug. 12

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from Statcast, FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: 5 Reasons Why Promoting Jordan Walker Was The Right Move By The Cardinals. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

The news of the day: the Cardinals promoted Jordan Walker from Triple A Memphis and made roster space by placing Matt Carpenter (lower back) on the Injured List. Walker is with the Cardinals in Cincinnati for the start of a three-game series.

I’ll have much more on the Walker promotion later this afternoon in a separate column. But with Walker showing forceful improvement at Triple A Memphis, this logical move made sense. Perhaps Walker can ignite a frustratingly inconsistent offense that is (a) short on right-handed hitters, and (b) absurdly short on right-handed hitters who play the outfield.

Now, let’s review other matters …

STATING THE OBVIOUS: The Cardinals need to pick up the pace. Fast. Furious. Starting now. Their 33-18 hot streak came to an end after their three-game sweep at Washington in a series that concluded July 8. The Cardinals were rained out the next day, then returned to the field on July 10 by losing a doubleheader at home to the Royals. The Cards have been spinning in circles.

Since resuming play July 10, the Redbirds are 12-16 for a .429 winning percentage that’s tied for 12th in the National League and tied for 23rd overall since that day. Their 12-16 mark is slightly worse than the Rockies (12-15) and the .429 winning percentage is the same as the Marlins. And that 12-16 ledger is the poorest in the NL Central since the Cardinals turned cold.

Here’s one way to look at it: the Cardinals are fortunate to be 1 and ½ games out of a wild-card spot as they open their three-game series in Cincinnati.

Here’s the other, less sunshiny-day way to look at it: NL teams that St. Louis must catch have been piling up the wins and creating considerable distance between themselves and the dropping-in-altitude Redbirds. Only 44 games to go on their regular-season schedule. It’s getting late, fellers.

Records since July 10 …

• Diamondbacks, 21-6, .778
• Padres, 17-7, .708
• Mets, 16-12, .571
• Giants, 16-12, .571

The rise of other contenders has edited the wild-card outlook, with the Diamondbacks and Padres pulling away from St. Louis.

As of Monday morning, the Redbirds were 5 and ½ games behind both Arizona and San Diego in the wild-card pursuit. It used to be the other way around, with the Cardinals sitting above both NL West clubs in the wild-card tabulations.

Here’s how the wild-card derby looked at the end of the play on July 9:

– Atlanta, No. 1 wild card, 3 games ahead of the Cards.

– St. Louis, No. 2 wild card – 1 and ½ games in front of No. 3 San Diego.

– The Cardinals were also three games ahead of the Mets, four games above the Diamondbacks and four games clear of the Giants.

The Cardinals still have a shot of overtaking the Braves, who lead them by 1 and ½ games in the bid for the No. 3 wild card. And St. Louis is one game short of the Mets, who are fourth among wild-card contenders.

Going into the new week, the Giants (61-59) are now even with the Cardinals after winning 12 of their last 16 games. And don’t overlook the Cubs, who are just 1 and ½ games away from STL. Cardinals. The Reds have drawn closer, trailing the Cards by a workable three games. The slumping Pirates aren’t that far behind, trailing the Cardinals by 3 and ½.

As we can see, the Cardinals have lost an immense amount of ground in the wild–card jockeying over their last 28 games. They’ve gotten no closer to the first-place Brewers in the

Cincinnati isn’t exactly a riverboat cruise. After stopping there, the Cardinals face a killer stretch of schedule, playing the Dodgers (home), Brewers (home), Twins (road), Padres (home), Yankees (road), Brewers (road) and Mariners (home.)

Considering the way the Cardinals are trending offensively, in starting pitching, and the bullpen – what gives you faith that they can jump ahead of better teams, hold off similar teams, and vault into the postseason?

According to Monday’s Playoff Odds Report at Fangraphs, the Cardinals have a 14.1 percent probability of qualifying for the postseason.

That gives them less of a chance than the Diamondbacks (75.3%), Padres (74.3%), Braves (52.6%), Mets (25.4%) and Giants (16.8%).

NOLAN GORMAN: In 177 plate appearances since June 5, the Cards second baseman is factually in the bottom seven of all major-league hitters in all of the relevant offensive categories:

– Batting average: .175 … 156th among 157
– Onbase pct: .227 … 156th among 157
– Strikeout rate: 40 percent … 157th among 157
– Slugging pct: .304 … 150th among 157
– OPS: .531 … 155th among 157
– WAR: minus 0.7 … No. 156 of 157

What’s the point here? What’s the purpose? A 40 percent strikeout rate over two-plus months is horrendous, but at least the Cardinals could live with if Gorman was cranking plenty of homers. But Gorman isn’t doing that, with only five home runs since June 5. Over that time, 111 big-league hitters have walloped more HRs than Gorman.

A reset at Triple A Memphis makes a helluva lot of sense. Gorman can rework his hitting mechanics, receive better hitting instruction, and restore lost confidence. If the Cardinals were so quick to send Jordan Walker to Memphis in late April, then why are they making an exception for Gorman? The Cardinals are absolutely bizarre in their terrible mishandling of young hitters. How long will this go on? Anybody awake? Hello?

LARS NOOTBAAR: Speaking of failing left-handed hitters with less than four full seasons in the majors, Nootbaar is batting .218 with a .313 OBP and .309 slug since the All-Star break. And if anything, the downturn is intensifying. In August, Nootbaar is hitting .143 with a gross .351 OPS – and one measly RBI. Nootbaar is hitting .170 with runners in scoring position this season; that includes going 0 for 10 RISP since the All-Star break. As I noted recently, Nootbaar is hitting the ball hard and probably deserves better results. But an “expected” batting average and slugging percentage doesn’t win games. There has to be an actual payoff that helps the offense.

THE BULLPEN CHRONICLES: The difficulties began just as the Cardinals completed their one strong stretch (33-18) of the season. Since July 10, the St. Louis bullpen ranks 21st in the majors with a standard 4.87 ERA, 21st in fielding independent ERA (4.49) and dead last with an 18.7 percent strikeout rate. During that time, Cardinal relievers have the fourth-worst strand rate among MLB bullpens, leaving only 66 percent of runners on base. The Redbird relievers also rank 25th in Win Probability Added (WPA) since July 10.

Before July 10 the Cardinals ranked sixth in the majors with a 3.40 bullpen ERA and were third in Win Probability Added. There is no reasonable way to look at these trends and start riffing with the “Don’t worry, be happy!” malarkey.

ANDRE PALLANTE: He pitched well in Saturday’s loss at Kansas City, but was pulled after 104 pitches after working 5 and 1/3 innings and giving up one earned run. Since Pallante moved into the rotation on May 29, here’s a look at the relevant starting-pitching ERAs from that day:

Pallante, 3.88

Sonny Gray, 4.40

Kyle Gibson, 4.40

Lance Lynn, 4.78

Miles Mikolas, 5.03

Erick Fedde, 5.40.

Let’s give Fedde a break because he’s made only two starts since the trade with the White Sox. Lynn is on the IL with an inflamed knee. So when Lynn returns, we can expect him to go back into the rotation. But it will be funny to watch Cardinals management and the manager do all sorts of medal-winning caliber gymnastics in trying to explain why Mikolas will stay in the rotation instead of Pallante.

If that happens, it’s because of one reason: payroll politics. The Cardinals are paying Mikolas $18.5 million this season and will pay him $18.5 million next season. So to subtract Mikolas from the rotation would be a front-office admission of failure, and that ain’t going to happen.

Wait, shouldn’t winning be the top priority?

Sush your mouth!

Can’t talk about that!

I assume the rehabbing lefty starter Steven Matz will be assigned to the bullpen when and if he returns. But the Cardinals are paying Matz a lot of money, and will do so again in 2025. But I don’t see why Matz should displace any of the current starting pitchers, including Pallante.

RYAN FERNANDEZ: Just an update. Before July 10, the rookie righty reliever had a 1.99 ERA and had allowed only 15.7 percent of inherited runners to score. Since June 10, Fernandez has a 9.00 ERA and has allowed 40% of inherited runners to score. Fernandez hasn’t lost any velocity on his four-seam fastball or slider. But – especially on the slider – the pitches don’t break as sharply. They’re more hittable. Before July 10, opponents batted .155 and slugged .225 vs. the slider. Since June 10, they’ve hit .238 and slugged .619 against his slider. And the whiff-swing rate on the slider is down by about five percent since July 10.

UPDATING THE OFFENSE: There’s been some overall improvement since the All-Star break, but the Cardinals still rank 14th among 15 NL teams with their average of 4.17 runs per game. This is hardly breaking news, but the performance with runners in scoring position just chokes any chance the STL offense has of plating more runs. And that’s what this comes down to. The Cardinals create plenty of chances to score runs but flub the assignment with the second-worst batting average (.229) and worst slugging percentage (.338) among NL teams with runners in scoring position.

Only 30 percent of STL’s runners on base have come around to score this season; among NL teams only Miami (28%) has failed to get runners home more often.

In August the Cardinals have the worst batting average (.139) and slugging percentage (.141) in the majors (.190) with runners in scoring position. (And no home runs with RISP.) And the opportunities have been there; their 90 plate appearances with runners in scoring position this month ranks 16th in the majors. Yeah, that could be better, but the Cardinals have had a large colony of baserunners in position to score over the last month, only to leave most of them stranded.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. I’ll be doing these at least five times per week, and will limit each episode to 10 to 14 minutes.

Please subscribe – thank you! – and here’s the link:

@TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: If The Cardinals Have Any Chance To Romp Into A Playoff Spot, They Better Start Now. It’s Getting Late. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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WEEKEND AT BERNIE’S

Cardinals fans enjoy making the trek to Kansas City when the Redbirds visit the other side of the state. Since 2016, the Cardinals have thanked their caravan by winning 15 of 20 games from the Royals at Kauffman Stadium.

The latest KC invasion occurred Friday when the Cardinals (60-57) put on an entertaining show. The visitors flexed late to rally for an 8-5 victory. From a St. Louis viewpoint, there was a lot to like about the successful opener of a two-game series.

WHAT I LIKED

1. The Cardinals made a rare comeback. According to Stathead, St. Louis was 5-46 this season before Friday when losing through seven innings. It’s been a challenge for the offense to storm back from a late deficit to win. They’re 9-42 when trailing after six innings, and 2-48 when behind after eight innings.

So it was sort of a big deal when rookie Victor Scott stepped up with his team down 5-4 to rip a double into the right-field corner to knock in two runs for a 6-5 lead. Willson Contreras provided security with his two-run homer in the ninth to make it 8-5. And for only the sixth time in 46 games, the Cardinals charged back to win when facing a deficit through seven innings.

2. Victor Scott II is hitting with more authority. The speedy rookie center fielder appears to be more poised, capable and confident compared to what we saw during his nervous MLB debut early in the season.

In the opening month, before returning to Triple A Memphis, Scott batted .085 and chipped in four RBIs. He had only three extra-base hits in his first 65 big-league plate appearances.

In his first five games since his recall from Memphis to replace the injured Michael Siani, Scott already has matched his early-season RBI total of four … but has done it in 40 fewer at–bats. This time around, Scott has almost as many hits (4) in 19 at-bats as he did (5 hits) in 59 at-bats during the first month. And Scott’s two extra-base hits in five starts is one shy of his three XBH in 17 opening-month starts.

Scott is batting a mild .211 since returning to the Cardinals on Aug. 5. What’s so great about that? There is a larger point here: he’s striking pitches with a lot more bang. I’ll show you …

First month: 88.2 mph average exit velocity
This month: 92.6 mph average exit velocity

First month: 26.7 percent hard-hit rate
This month: 58.3 percent hard-hit rate

First month: .136 slugging percentage
This month: .421 slugging percentage

It’s only been a few games, and this may not last in a full-strength way, but Scott has shown the ability to smash and drive pitches with harder contact.

Scott still strikes out a lot, and he’s barreled only one pitch since rejoining the Cardinals. But his modified swing – with a leg kick as suggested by instructor Ryan Ludwick – already has produced two game-altering blows.

First was Scott’s first major-league homer, a two-run clout in the second inning to give the Cardinals an early lead in their 4-3 win over Tampa Bay. Next was the late two-run double that gave the Cardinals the lead and a comeback triumph Friday in KC. In both instances, the two extra-base hits were the two most important plays of the game in terms of win expectancy.

3. Willson Contreras roars again. In late July, Contreras homered in back-to-back games in the home series against the Nationals. After that, he entered a prolonged slump with only six hits in 41 at-bats (.146). And only one of the hits went for extra bases (a double.) Contreras has been deeply concerned with the political strife in wake of the controversial (and likely corrupt) reelection of dictatorial president Nicolas Maduro in his native Venezuela. In particular, Contreras was worried about his family members there. I don’t know how much of a factor his anxiety played into his downturn offensively – but any distraction was understandable.

Friday night, Contreras unloaded on Kansas City pitchers for two homers, a double and four RBIs. The voltage charged the Contreras slugging percentage to .494. Even with the slump, Contreras is performing 43 percent above league average offensively per OPS+. The Cardinals obviously need Contreras to reemerge as a force with a bat in his hands, and Friday’s outbreak may have been the beginning of a hot streak. The Redbirds hope so.

4. Matthew Liberatore’s game-saving relief. The lefty replaced a failing Mikolas and shut Kansas City down for three scoreless and hitless innings. Only one Royal reached base, on a walk. Liberatore struck out three of his final six batters faced. Keeping the Royals off balance with a variety of stuff, Liberatore got 10 called strikes on his 36 pitches. Eight of the called strikes came on his four-seam fastball or sinker. The Cardinals don’t win this game without Liberatore coming in to put the Royals in check. Andrew Kittredge and Ryan Helsley worked the eighth and ninth (respectively) and didn’t allow a run despite four of nine hitters reaching base in the final two innings. Bottom line: five shutout innings by the St. Louis bullpen. And that was huge.

5. Tommy Pham. I have so much respect for this man and his intense competitiveness. In the eighth, with runners on first and third, Pham hit a ground ball that seemed destined to become an inning-ending double play. Had that been the case, the Cardinals would have trailed 5-4 going into the ninth. The Royals got a force out at second base for the second out of the inning, but the hustling Pham wasn’t about to concede. He ran hard all of the way, and barely beat the relay throw to first. The Royals challenged the call, but the appeal was denied by the replay crew. By legging out a potential double-play grounder, Pham kept the inning alive for Scott, who swatted the two-run double for the lead. Brendan Donovan and Pham scored on the play. Donovan – for some reason – didn’t try to score from third base on the ground ball, but everything turned out OK. Pham also had an RBI ground-out earlier in the contest.

Other stuff I liked …

* It was good to see Alec Burleson crank three hits including a solo home run. The No. 2 and No. 3 spots in the order – Burly and Contreras – combined for six hits, five RBIs and four runs scored.

* St. Louis pitchers got through Friday’s game without suffering any real damage from KC’s phenom shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. – who went 0 for 4 with a walk. Understatement: it isn’t easy to stop Witt. He came into Friday’s game with the highest batting average (.349) in the majors and was third in slugging (.606) and fourth in onbase percentage (.394) … not to mention his 33 doubles, 10 triples, 22 homers, 84 RBIs and 25 stolen bases.

Witt, an amazing all-around talent, leads the majors with 8.1 WAR this season. Before being cooled by the Cardinals, Witt had batted .481 with a 1.362 OPS, eight doubles, six homers and 21 RBIs in his previous 19 games. With one more game to go at Kauffman, can the Cardinals get out of Kansas City safely by preventing Witt from clobbering them? Good luck.

* The Cardinals won despite going 1 for 12 with runners in scoring position and leaving 10 runners on base. With 13 hits and six walks, the Cardinals could have scored in double digits Friday. So why did I like this? Answer: the Cardinals got away with going 1 for 12 with RISP and collected a win. That’s like cashing a longshot ticket. St. Louis is 10 for 71 (.141) with runners in scoring position in August.

WHAT I DIDN’T LIKE

Another ineffective start by Miles Mikolas, who didn’t make his team’s early 3-0 lead hold up. Mikolas retired six of seven Royals in the first two innings, but a barrage was coming. During the 3rd and 4th innings the Royals went 7 for 12 (.583) against Mikolas with a double, triple, sac fly and five runs.

Four of the seven hits came on two-strike counts as the Royals pounded their way to a 5-3 lead. Over his four innings, Mikolas got only four whiffs on 40 swings via Statcast.

This season Mikolas has the lowest swinging-strike rate (6.9%) and strikeout rate (16.1%) among 64 MLB starting pitchers. Needless to say, the contact rate against Mikolas (85.9%) is the highest against a starting pitcher in the majors.

Mikolas has a 6.56 ERA in his last nine starts, with opponents batting .335 with a .545 slugging percentage against him over that time. (Ouch.)

For the season, Mikolas has a frightful 5.30 ERA that’s the second worst among 64 innings-qualified starters. The only starter with a higher ERA is Washington’s Patrick Corbin at 5.88.

St. Louis starting pitchers have a 4.44 ERA this season, ranking 23rd among the 30 teams. Just for kicks, I subtracted Mikolas’ innings pitched and earned runs from the overall rotation total. My finding: the other Cardinal starters have combined for a 4.20 ERA.

In his last 46 starts – which goes back to the June 10 of last season – Mikolas has a 5.35 ERA, with opponents getting him for a .283 average and .479 slug. Mikolas, who turns 36 on Aug. 23, has a guaranteed salary of $17.67 million for 2025. Nice.

FINALLY …

The Cardinals remained seven games behind first-place Milwaukee in the standings. The Brewers beat the visiting Reds 8-3 on Friday for their fourth consecutive win. During the four-game streak, the Brewers have averaged an astonishing 10.5 runs per game with 20 extra-base hits including 10 homers. They’ve hit .364 with a .449 OBP and .624 slug over the four games … in the wild-card jungle the Cardinals are 1 and ½ games behind the No. 3 Mets, but have the slumping Braves in front of them.

Thanks for reading …

Enjoy the rest of your weekend …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. I’ll be doing these at least five times per week, and will limit each episode to 10 to 14 minutes.

Please subscribe – thank you! – and here’s the link:

@TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.

The post Weekend At Bernie’s: To The Delight Of Their Traveling Fans, The Cardinals Made A Spirited Comeback Friday In Kansas City. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

What would you say about a major-league baseball team that is …

+ 23rd overall and 11th in the NL with a minus 46 run differential.

+ 24th overall and 14th in the NL, in runs scored per game.

+ 21st overall and 11th in the NL, in runs allowed per game.

+ 22nd overall and 11th in the NL, in starting-pitching ERA.

+ 18th overall and 11th in the NL, in bullpen ERA since the All-Star break. And it is a team that has as many blown saves (5) as saves (5) since the break.

I could go on, but what’s the point?

OK, what would you say about a team that has this profile?

The forever-faithful description: this team may not be the best, but it’s a big part of my life, and I will continue to support them, no matter what, even if they disappoint me. It’s our baseball family.

The polite description: gee, sure, they’re frustrating, but earlier this season they went 33-18 over a 51-game stretch so we know they are capable of making a run into the playoffs.

The Bally Sports Midwest description: everything is swell, plenty of good seats are available, the weather is great, so come on down to the ballpark and have a good time. Our boys are about to turn it around. Can you feel it! Here come the Cardinals!

The pragmatic description: there are some things to like about this team, and they are certainly better than last year. But there are just too many flaws to overlook, and we have to be realistic about the situation: they aren’t very good, and they won’t be around when the playoffs start.

The social sports-fan description: They’re disappointing, OK, but I like them, and I really enjoy going to the ballpark for food and beverages and laughs.

The Roger Daltrey description: Won’t get fooled again! Not buying any more tickets.

Soprano description: Playoffs? Forget about it.

Curt description: below-average team. Period. That’s all.

Simple description: mediocre.

The blunt opinion: They stink! Fire everyone!

The both-sides, yo-yo description: They’re not exactly awful, but they’re not exactly good. Could be better, could be worse. They’re not successful right now, but they’ve been successful for a long time.

The Roberto Duran description: No mas!

The wide-reaching, forward-looking description: making changes is long overdue, there are too many problems to fix, this isn’t the front office to do it, so clear it out and start fresh with a new regime in baseball management.

The good housekeeping description: time to clean house!

The Springsteen description: darkness on the edge of town.

Two-word description: DeWitt’s fault.

The team we’re talking about here is … well, you know who it is.

In the words of the late Texas songwriter Blaze Foley: “I’m tired of running around looking for answers to questions that I already know.”

On Thursday, the St. Louis Cardinals blew a 4-2 lead, lost to Tampa Bay, and failed to complete a three-game streak. The Redbirds lost ground in the NL Central division, lost ground in the wild-card stakes, and left many fans ticked off despite winning two of the three games from the Rays.

By now, we are used to this. Nothing should come as a surprise. But …

What I don’t understand – and this absolutely applies to me – is why we continue to talk ourselves into these happy scenarios …

The Cardinals catching up to the first-place Brewers …

The Cardinals getting on a roll, to sweep into a wild-card spot …

The offense getting hot …

And so on. I do this myself, so I’m not making fun or criticizing anyone else for having such absurd thoughts. I’ll just repeat something I said late Thursday night while interacting with Cardinals fans on X after an especially frustrating loss by the home team:

“Meanwhile, the Brewers went to Atlanta and dropped 31 runs on the Braves in a three-game sweep. I keep taking myself into thinking it’s possible for the Cardinals to catch Milwaukee. I need to make better use of my brain … what’s left of it.”

That pretty much sums up my thoughts about now.

ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT: The Cardinals are 59-57, with 46 games to go in their regular-season schedule … the Redbirds are 3-5 in August … after going 50-46 before the All-Star break, St. Louis is 9-11 in the second half for a .450 winning percentage that ranks 10th in the National League … the Cards are 7-10 in their last 17 games, 11-15 since July 10, and 18-19 since June 27 … the Cardinals were 15-24 on May 11 before winning 33 of their next 51 games, and they’re 11-15 since the hot streak ended. Other than the positive run of success over the 51 games, St. Louis is 26-39 (.400) in the other 65 games.

STANDINGS CHECK: The second-place Cardinals trail division-leading Milwaukee by seven games … the top three wild cards in order: Padres, Diamondbacks, Mets. After that, the Braves are a half-game behind the Mets, followed by the Cardinals (minus 2 and ½) and Giants (minus 3).

DAILY PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT: According to Fangraphs, the Cardinals have a 5.9 percent prospect of winning the division and are 8.5 percent likely to claim a wild-card prize at Rob Manfred’s carnival. STL’s overall postseason probability (14.4%) ranks ninth among the 15 NL teams.

COFFEE’S FOR CLOSERS: The Cardinals continue to fritter away chances to build a better record. This hadn’t happened for a while, but in failing to sweep the Rays the Cardinals are now 2-7 this season when having the chance to sweep in the final game of the series. And this isn’t relevant to Thursday’s loss, because St.Louis had already won the series vs. Tampa Bay. But when the Cardinals have had the opportunity to grab a series win by taking the final game of the series, they are 6-7 in such tests this season.

THE BULLPEN BLUES: I wrote about this Wednesday here on “Scoops,” so I can’t say I was surprised when the Cardinals yakked up a 4-2 lead in the seventh inning Thursday. Proud to serve as the town’s sports-media klaxon, I’ve been pointing to the weakening of the St. Louis bullpen.

After Kyle Gibson did his share to set up a winning evening for the Cardinals by allowing two runs in six innings. Going into the top of the seventh, the Rays had a win probability of only 18 percent. But the first three STL relievers into the game – Kyle Leahy, JoJo Romero and Shawn Armstrong – collectively faced 12 batters in their 2 and ⅓ innings … and it didn’t go well. The three-reliever sequence was burned for four hits, a wall and four earned runs.

The worst and most debilitating moment was Romero getting bushwacked for a two-run homer by Brandon Lowe. The drive gave the Rays a 5-4 lead and increased their win probability to 67 percent. Manager Oli Marmol extended Armstrong into the ninth inning but he was pelted for a double and RBI single for a 6-4 lead and 95 percent win probability. Later on, lefty John King entered to book the final two outs.

BIG-PICTURE BULLPEN UPDATE: I gave you the basics the other day in this space, but let’s refresh the numbers to show the details of the decline.

Before the All-Star break … and after the All-Star break:

— Save percentage: 73% … 50%
— ERA: 3.50 (7th) … 4.57 (18th)
— Runners stranded: 73.7% (7th) … 65% (25th)
— Win Probability Added: ranked 3rd … ranked 23rd
— Fewest meltdowns: ranked 7th … ranked 22nd
— Most shutdowns: ranked 5th, ranked 17th
— Opponent slugging pct: .371 … .419
— HR allowed: 0.94 per 9 IP … 1.11 per 9 IP

The strikeout-walk ratio has slipped as well.

In the first half the Cardinals were 33-4 when leading a game through six innings. In only 20 games since the All-Star break, the Redbirds already have relinquished three leads through the sixth and lost the game.

SAME ‘OL ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: The fellers scored all four runs in the first three innings Thursday. But over the final six innings the Cardinals went 5 for 22 (.227) with two walks and were 0 for 4 with runners in scoring position. Four of the five hits were singles. Tampa Bay relievers retired the final seven St. Louis hitters of the game, with the quick and easy work including Paul Goldschmidt’s double-play grounder with two runners on to end the seventh – and consecutive strikeouts by Nolan Gorman and Victor Scott to terminate the eighth.

Through the first eight games of August, the Cardinals rank 21st in the majors for runs, 22nd in batting average, 23rd in onbase percentage, 26th in slugging, and 26th in OPS. The Redbirds are 9 for 49 (.153) with runners in scoring position. For the season, per wRC+, the Cardinals are 19 percent below league average offensively with runners in scoring position. That ranks 29th in the majors and only the White Sox have done worse.

A FINE SERIES BY CARDS STARTERS: No complaints from me about the work of Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde and Kyle Gibson against Tampa Bay. They collectively allowed five earned runs in 18 innings for a 2.50 ERA. The three starters controlled the Rays hitters for a meager slash line of .232/.274/.333. The best part: the Rays went 1 for 21 (.048) against the three St. Louis starters with runners in scoring position. Gibson has a 3.28 ERA in his last four starts. Miles Mikolas and Andre Pallante are set to start the two games at Kansas City tonight and Saturday.

LAUGHABLY PREDICTABLE CARDINAL STAT: Since joining the Rays in the trade from St. Louis, outfielder Dylan Carlson is 4 for 17 (.286) with a double, homer, four RBIs and a 571 slug. And since that deal, St. Louis outfielder Lars Nootbaar is 2 for 18 (.111) with no extra base hits, no runs batted in, and a .111 slug.

MORE ON NOOT: In 19 games since the All-Star break, Nootbaar is batting .219 with a weak .314 slugging percentage and only three RBIs in 59 plate appearances. Nootbaar went 0 for 7 in the Tampa Bay series – including 0 for 4 with runners in scoring position. For the season, Nootbaar is 9 for 53 (.170) with RISP. Holy ravioli.

MORE ON RISP AWFULNESS: If you’ve wondered why the Cardinals are so hideously bad when batting with runners in scoring position, I submit this exhibit into evidence…

5 worst batting averages with RISP among regulars:

• Nolan Gorman, .167
• Lars Nootbaar, .170
• Paul Goldschmidt, .176
• Michael Siani, .177
• Willson Contreras, .208

Collective, the five hitters have a .178 batting average and 28 percent strikeout rate RISP. And that’s substantial because the five guys have 415 plate appearances with RISP between them – which is nearly 40 percent of the team total.

And the top option off the bench (Matt Carpenter) is batting .200 with runners in scoring position and has struck out an astounding 41.6 percent of the time in those situations.

JORDAN WALKER WATCH: He’s cooled off over the last two games for Triple A Memphis, going 2 for 9 with two strikeouts. I wanted to check on Walker’s overall batted-ball metrics at Triple A, via Statcast. On tracked pitches, Walker has a 43.6 percent hard-hit rate and an average exit velocity of 91.3 mph. Both are good. As for balls in play: ground balls 46 percent, line drives 23.4%, fly balls 23%, and pop-ups 7.6%. It’s pretty much been the same since the start of July except for a slightly higher ground-ball rate (47.5%) on tracked pitches.

Thanks for reading (as always) …

Have a wonderful weekend …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube. I’ll be doing these at least five times per week, and will limit each episode to 10 to 14 minutes.

Please subscribe – thank you! – and here’s the link:

@TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: The Struggle To Accept The Cardinals For Who They Are. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

OK, I’m going full Statboy Nerd here, so please have patience with me.

There’s an intriguing development going on with Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado and I have to wonder what it could mean for his offensive performance.

I talked about this topic in my YouTube video published Thursday morning, and I felt this would be a good way to expand on it.

I became aware of a changing Arenado trend after reading a notes column written by the esteemed Eno Sarris. Eno is one of many reasons you should subscribe to The Athletic.

Here’s what he wrote:

“It hasn’t shown up in the splits yet, but Arenado is doing something a little differently recently. Only two qualified batters have increased their bat speed more in the last month compared to the first couple months of the season than Arenado. Swinging harder has worked well for others in the top 15, like Jarren Duran (whose slugging percentage keeps rising), Bryson Stott (at least lately) and Luis Garcia Jr. (who has been slugging over .600 since July 1), and it also seems to have singled a return to health for Yordan Alvarez and Manny Machado. Maybe Arenado can still salvage some of his season when the Cardinals need it most.”

Motivated by Sarris, I went searching for clues. The quicker bat speed should help Arenado, but I wanted to learn more about it.

It’s too soon to predict the lasting impact on ‘Nado’s overall hitting. And gosh forbid that I do some false-narrative wishcasting here. But I do find this stuff interesting … and it’s new … and it applies to a very important hitter for the Cardinals.

So let’s give it a look.

Here are three metrics, listed left to right, covering the Arenado’s trend before the All-Star break and comparing it to Arenado’s trend since the All-Star break:

Bat speed: 70.2 mph … up to 73.2 mph
Avg. exit velocity: 85.9 mph … to 89.6 mph
Hard-hit rate: 29.6% … to 40.4%

That’s actually a bigger jump than I expected to see before diving into the Statcast digits. Arenado’s increase in hard-hit rate is substantial. And consistently hard contact does make a difference in most cases. It’s also true that hard-contact balls in play can be tracked down and captured by fielders. So luck is almost always a factor.

As Sarris noted, it’s too soon to make conclusions, but the faster bat seems to be making a difference.

Arenado had an official, non-adjusted .381 slugging percentage before the All-Star break; that official, non-adjusted slug is .433 in the second half.

In studying the game-by-game breakdown of Arenado’s bat speed since early June, I could see the improvement.

This stat does an excellent job of displaying the big change in Arenado’s bat speed:

> In his first 74 games of the season, Arenado had a bat speed of 71 mph or higher in 31 percent of the games.

> In his last 28 games, Arenado has averaged 71 mph or higher in 82 percent of the games.

That’s a large, large difference that appears to be paying off.

In 114 plate appearances beginning July 5, Arenado had batted .302 with a .351 onbase percentage and .453 slugging percentage through Wednesday. That’s an .804 OPS. There have been four homers during that time – no big deal — but he’s obviously doing better.

Now, then. Since I’m a Stat Nerd, I can’t help myself. But I think this is a good find, and I’ll share it. (If you’re bored, I understand. But please read it!)

I wanted to see how the enhanced bat speed impacted Arenado’s performance against high-velocity four-seam fastballs thrown 94 miles per hour or higher …

Once again, a before and after … before the All-Star break and after the break.

Bat speed: 68.3 mph … 71.5 mph
Avg. exit velocity: 84.8 mph … to 92.2 mph
Hard-hit rate: 19.6% … to 63.6%

Are you kidding me? Look at that preposterous difference in his hard–contact rate again. Up by 44 percent? Whoa. I triple-checked this, and unless Statcast is trying to mess with my head and make a nimrod out of me, these are the correct numbers.

On those high-velo four-seam fastballs, Arenado had a .308 slugging percentage on competitive swings before the break … and now a .583 slug on competitive swings after the break. His Isolated Power number was an awful .046 on high-velo pitches before the break, and it’s .250 after the break. His barrel rate is up. His slugging percentage on pulled pitches is up. This is good.

(What’s a competitive swing? No check swings, no bunts, no losing balance after being fooled by a pitcher. Stuff like that.)

There hasn’t been a home-run barrage from Arenado, but let’s wait and see what happens.

Am I wishcasting here? No, I am not.

Wishcasting isn’t based on statistical realities. But when the cold, hard and actual facts present new evidence, it would be stupid to dismiss it.

Thanks to Eno Sarris for making us aware of Arenado’s recalibrated swing.

Thanks for reading …

-Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube, which just went online. I’ll be doing these at least five times per week, and will limit the length of each episode to 10 to 13 minutes.

Please subscribe, and here’s the link:

@TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: Something Is Going On With Cardinals Third Baseman Nolan Arenado … appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

Other than the mere happiness of winning the first two games to set up a chance to sweep visiting Tampa Bay, the other positive for the Cardinals was seeing their starting pitchers do a commendable job.

Sonny Gray allowed two runs in seven innings to play a lead role in Tuesday’s 4-3 win. In his first home start as a Cardinal, Erick Fedde followed up that with five innings of one-run ball in Wednesday’s 5-2 victory.

No, I won’t do a TikTok video showing off my new dance moves to celebrate a five-inning start – in case you’re wondering, I fancy the Swagg Bouncee – but let’s not miss the point here.

Fedde labored through the second and third innings, throwing 63 pitchers to get six outs. That’s an average of 10.5 pitches per out. That’s a lot!

Fedde faced 12 batters across the two frames and was behind in the count 14 times. He pitched on three-ball counts eight times. Trouble was brewing, but Fedde gave up two hits, two walks and a run in the two innings. He escaped with minimal harm. The only real damage was a rapid elevation of his pitch count.

During his two sweaty innings, Fedde threw 53 pitches with at least one runner on base, and only 10 pitches with the bases empty. And 40 of Fedde’s pitches came when the Rays had guys in scoring position.

Fedde didn’t capitulate. In the second and third innings, Tampa Bay went 1 for 7 with men on, and 0 for 6 with fellows on second base, third base, or both. Fedde’s stubborn resistance kept the St. Louis lead at 3-1 going into the fourth. And then he breezed over his final two innings, throwing only 18 total pitches. But by then Fedde was up to 93 for the night, and manager Oli Marmol turned the proceedings over to his bullpen.

It wasn’t technically a quality start, but Fedde provided quality competitiveness. He got 10 outright swings and misses (no fouls) and struck out 28.5 percent of his 21 batters faced.

On the first two nights of the series, Gray and Fedde worked a combined 12 innings and allowed three runs for a 2.25 ERA. This matters because Cardinal starting pitchers had a 5.15 ERA in their previous 42 games.

Two good starts in a row doesn’t make a trend, but to turn the performance around, the Cardinals had to begin somewhere. Kyle Gibson gets the ball for an opportunity to keep it going by pitching effectively in his Thursday-night starts. And if Gibson can subdue the Rays, the Redbirds could complete a three-game sweep.

ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT: After two consecutive wins over the Rays, the Cardinals are 59-56 through 115 games and have 47 matchups remaining on the regular-season schedule … The Cards are 3-4 in August, 9-10 since the All-Star break, 11-14 in their last 25 and 18-18 since June 27… Fangraphs projects an 82-80 record for the Redbirds, with Baseball Prospectus forecasting an 83-79 finish for STL.

STANDINGS CHECK: Despite winning two straight the Cardinals remained six games behind first-place Milwaukee in the NL Central because the Brewers have won two in a row at Atlanta, outscoring the Braves 18-5… the Cardinals moved back into second place when Pittsburgh was swept by Arizona in Wednesday’s doubleheader. The Cardinals are two games ahead of the Pirates (56-57).

In the wild-card mosh pit, Arizona and San Diego are each 63-52 and tied for the No. 1 spot, with slumping Atlanta (60-53) on the No. 3 peg, two games behind the Diamondbacks and Padres … next are the NY Mets, who are a half-game behind the Braves. STL is two games out of the third spot and San Francisco is 3 and ½ games away from the Braves.

Arizona has won four in a row and 12 out of the last 14 games. San Diego has won 13 of its last 15. On the other end of the streaking, the Braves have lost four consecutive games and are 6-11 in the last 17.

TOP OF THE LINEUP: Masyn Winn, Alec Burleson and Willson Contreras occupied the top three lines of manager Marmol’s lineup card … and man, did they come through. The trio combined for six hits in 12 at-bats (.500) with four runs scored and three RBIs.

To chart it another way, the top three spots supplied six of the team’s nine hits, scored four of the five runs, and delivered three of the five RBIs.

NOLAN ARENADO: He took care of the rest of the team’s business on offense Wednesday with two hits including a two-run double that opened a 3-1 lead for the home team. Arenado has cranked it up over his last eight games, going 11 for 31 (.355) with a .452 slugging percentage and .827 OPS. I’ll be writing more about Arenado later this afternoon.

MASYN WINN’S OUTSTANDING ROOKIE SEASON: Here are a few items about the splendid St. Louis rookie. As we watch him play, the more we’re impressed after realizing (again) that he’s only 21 years old. In 107 games this season, Winn has hit .288 with a .749 OPS – and is nine percent above league average offensively in adjusted OPS.

+ In his last 14 games, Winn has batted .288 with a .525 slugging percentage and .869 OPS. He isn’t getting worn down; he’s getting stronger.

+ As a leadoff man at the top of the lineup, Winn has struggled to get on base at a decent rate. But that’s seemingly changing, because Winn has a .344 leadoff OBP since July 24.

+ Winn still leads MLB shortstops with 13 defensive runs saved. He’s also first double-play runs saved above average, second in double plays turned, and second in range. Winn’s average of 93.7 mph per throw ranks third among major-league shortstops behind Pittsburgh’s O’Neil Cruz (95.7 mph).

+ Winn is only one of two rookies in Cardinals franchise history that has put together this wide-ranging statistical set:

— At least 20 doubles
— At least nine homers
— At least four triples
— At least 41 RBIs
— At least 53 runs scored
— At least 10 steals
— An OPS of .749 or higher

The only other Cards rookie to assemble that particular package of stats in a season was Wally Moon in 1954. Moon was voted NL Rookie of the Year that season. Winn is obviously one of the league’s best rookies, but he’s been overshadowed by Pittsburgh ace Paul Skenes and San Diego center fielder Jackson Merrill.

Of course, the 2024 season isn’t over and Winn must maintain his pace. But if he does that, then consider this: during the expansion era (1961-present) only six full-time rookie shortstops have compiled the combination of offensive statistics that match or exceed Winn:

– Derek Jeter, 1996
– Nomar Garciaparra, 1997
– Angel Berroa, 2003
– Hanley Ramirez, 2006
– Kevin Newman, 2019

Helluva player, this Masyn Winn.

THE ODD STRUGGLES OF LARS NOOTBAAR: He went 0 for on Wednesday night and is batting .133 in six games this month. Nootbaar had a few strong games offensively when he came off the IL on July 8. But in his last 21 games (17 starts), Nootbaar has batted .194 with a terrible onbase percentage (.271) and poor .274 slugging rate.

But I have to say this about Noot: he’s been hitting the ball dang hard since coming back from the injured list, with a hard-hit rate of 49.4 percent and an average exit velocity of 91.5 mph. But he hasn’t turned the impressive metrics into impressive production. The obvious reason for that is a .264 average on balls in play. That’s well below the overall MLB average of .290 this season on balls in play. So bad luck is definitely a factor. Based on the quality of contact, Nootbaar has a “deserved” batting average of .252 and an expected slugging percentage of .441.

RYAN HELSLEY: Despite allowing two runners in the 9th inning, the Cards closer bagged another save Wednesday, giving him a majors-leading 36 saves. That’s three more than Cleveland’s Emmanuel Clase (36.) Helsley is also tied for second in the majors with a 92 percent success rate in securing saves. That applies to closers that have at least 20 save opportunities this season.

Helsley’s 36th save tied him with Dennis Eckersley (1997) for 12th for most saves in a season by a Cardinal reliever. Next up for Helsley: Edward Mujica, 37 saves in 2013. And then it’s 38 saves by Ryan Franklin in 2009, and Jason Isringhausen’s 39 saves in 2005.

PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT: Fangraphs gives St. Louis a 9.8 percent chance to win the division and a 9.4 percent possibility of earning a wild card for an overall postseason probability of 19.3 percent. Excluding the NL’s current division leaders, here’s the shot of making the playoffs for each team that’s in the wild-card chase:

Padres, 82.9%
Diamondbacks, 73.7%
Braves, 72.5%
Mets, 39.5%
Cardinals 19.3%
Giants, 12.3%
Cubs, 7.4%
Pirates, 5.7%

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the new Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube, which just went online. I’ll be doing these at least five times per week, and will limit the length of each episode to 10 to 13 minutes. Subscribe @TheBernieShow

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: The Cardinals’ Starting Pitching Bounces Back, Setting Up A Chance To Sweep Tampa Bay. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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BULLPEN ANXIETY!

Keeping a bullpen together isn’t easy over a full season. The seams can become undone. Bodies come and go. Sore arms are iced down on the IL. In times of urgent need, minor-league call ups are asked to do a job that they may, or may not be, ready for.

We know what the Cardinals must do to make the playoffs.

– Find a winning form and stay there. The win-lose, win-lose, win-lose fluctuations are troublesome. There are only 48 games to go.

– Score more runs. Score a lot more runs. If, indeed, that is even possible. (Probably not.) It might help if this team had, well, you know, a bench. It would help if Nolan Gorman and Lars Nootbaar could do what they’re supposed to do.

– More consistent starting pitching. The old guys can’t stall and be towed into the shop. Newcomer Erick Fedde must pitch like a No. 2 starter or close to it. If Andre Pallante is one of the five best starters on this team, then he needs to be in the rotation. This is no time for payroll politics and giving preferential treatment to, say, Miles Mikolas.

In addition to all of that, I’m monitoring the bullpen. We shouldn’t take the relievers for granted an assume that everything is GREAT … because that isn’t true.

I’m wondering how the spine of this team will hold up. The burden of heavy responsibility carried by this bullpen is immense. A few more breakdowns than usual could change everything … and for the worse.

Here’s some of the stuff that probably has manager Oli Marmol feeling a little restless when it’s time to go to sleep for the night. He’s done a helluva job running this bullpen in 2024, but his biggest challenge remains. How does the manager get this group to the finish line — healthy and strong and dependable?

* St. Louis relievers had a 3.50 ERA before the All-Star break (7th) but are 16th with a 4.34 ERA in the second half.

* After stranding 74 percent of the runners on base in the first half, the ‘pen has stranded only 65 percent of the runners since the All-Star break. The relievers aren’t as adept at clearing trouble from the bases.

* The bullpen has a 73 percent success rate in save opps in the first half … and only a 50% save percentage since the break.

* I’m a believer in the Win Probability Added metric as a barometer to gauge the effectiveness of your bullpen. In the first half the STL bullpen was No. 3 in the majors in WPA. Since the break, their relievers are No. 21 in WPA. Uh-oh.

* The home-run rate against the STL’s baseball fire department has increased since the All-Star break.

* Dudes who were so good in the first half – closer Ryan Helsley, setup man Ryan Fernandez, lefty specialist John King – aren’t as dominant now. The same can be said of the promising rookie reliever Chris Roycroft, who has a second-half ERA of 5.63 and a poor strand rate of 47 percent.

There have been some positive developments as well; JoJo Romero and Andrew Kittredge got through a tired phase caused by the workload and are snapping with their biting pitches again. And recent trade acquisition Shawn Armstrong looks good in his early days as a Cardinal.

I want to start by focusing on Helsley.

Let’s do a “Before” and “After” … as in before the All-Star break and after the All-Star break. Helsley gave up a run in the ninth inning Tuesday, as Tampa Bay cut the Cardinal lead to 4-3. But Helsley escaped more damage when shortstop Masyn Winn made a terrific play and throw-out to put the Rayd down for good.

Helsley hasn’t been the same lately.

Here are the “before” and “after” stats:

• Earned-run average: 2.36 … 5.40
• Batting average: .211 … .308
• Onbase percentage: .283 … .379
• Slugging percentage: .257 … .500
• Strikeout rate: 27.7% … 24.1%
• Walk rate: 9.8% … 10.3%
• Hard-hit rate: 31.5% … 42.1%
• Barrel rate: 1.8% … 6.9%
• Whiff-swing rate: 35% … 38.6%

As trends go, there’s a lot to dislike about the Hensley profile.

Another reliever to pay closer attention to is Fernandez. The rookie right-hander had a 2.08 ERA and allowed a .277 slugging percentage before the All-Star break. But in six second-half appearances his ERA (7.50) and opponent slugging percentage (.667) have seriously inflated. That’s a concern.

Before the break, opponents had a .573 OPS against Fernandez and struck out 24 percent of the time. Since the break opponents have a .1000 OPS and 20% strikeout rate.

On the plus side, Kittredge hasn’t allowed a run and been nipped for just three hits in six appearances and 5 and ⅔ innings since the All-Star break. And his strikeout rate is trending up. Romero’s ERA has dropped since the break, and his strikeout rate is popping again after Marmol wisely gave him some extra time off to regenerate that fatigued left arm.

Armstrong has only worked against 15 batters since coming over in the deal for Dylan Carlson. But his early showing is encouraging, highlighted by a 40 percent strikeout rate and a .214 opponent batting average.

Righthander Kyle Leahy has been solid when thrown into the fray. I would like to think of Matthew Liberatore as an imposing late-inning enforcer, but the Cardinals still don’t know what to make of him. Maybe they’ll figure something out by 2031 or so.

Bringing an extra reliever in at the deadline was a good idea that never materialized. There could be some regrets over the front-office confidence to go with what they had. Other contending NL teams strengthened their relief capability at the trade deadline. The Cardinals took a half-measure step – with part of the thinking based on the hope that 100 mph reliever Riley O’Brien will reappear after 131 days (and counting) on the Injured List.

The Cardinal bullpen is still the finest and most trustworthy part of this team. But Helsley and the other relievers will be tested, probably to the extreme, over the final weeks that will define the Cardinals. They’ll either be heading to the postseason or heading to the offseason. We can be sure of this much: there have been signs of weakening, and the St. Louis bullpen can’t break. If it cracks, then it’s go-home time for the Cardinals.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube, which just went online. I’ll be doing these at least five times per week, and will limit the length of each episode to 10 to 13 minutes.

Please subscribe, and here’s the link: @TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: A Sturdy Cardinals’ Bullpen Is Weakening, And Cannot Crack. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

For at least one night, the Cardinals emerged from their stupor. They won a ballgame, defeating the Tampa Bay Rays 4-3 Tuesday at Busch Stadium.

It was a twos-day Tuesday, with the teams combining for three two-run homers. Sorry for my attempt to be cute with word play.

Anyway … after the Cardinals had lost four of the five previous games to weaken their pulse, they staged an uprising and tasted the sweetness of success.

For this, I’d like to thank five people:

1. Rookie center fielder Victor Scott, for ripping his first big-league homer, a two-run drive into the home team’s bullpen. The instant family souvenir tied the score 2-2 in the second inning. Scott’s parents were there to witness this special occasion. Victor said he planned to give them the baseball. Even more powerful, he gave Mom and Dad an extraordinary memory.

2. Cardinals special adviser and roving hitting instructor Ryan Ludwick, for his astute and instant-impact work with V. Scott down in the minors. The advice – use a leg kick to power-load his swing – seems to be working really well. Uh, maybe think about making “Luddy” the batting coach in St. Louis next season?

3. Tommy Pham, for a couple of reasons. First, he’s Tommy damn Pham. And we love Tommy damn Pham. And really, that’s enough. But one batter after Scott energized the setting at Busch Stadium, Pham presented one his specialties for the house: a two-run projectile off a lefty pitcher that landed in the visitor’s bullpen.

4. Sonny Douglas Gray: First batter of the game, walk. Second batter of the game, two-run home run. Third batter, reached on error. Uh-oh. After yielding the homer, Gray faced 21 batters during the remainder of his shift, blanking the Rays while conceding just three hits and a walk. After Tampa Bay took that lightning-strike lead, Gray struck out 28.6 percent of the enemies that stood in the box to challenge him. He would not permit any additional disturbances. The way the evening began, Gray’s seven innings of two-run ball was just what the Cardinals needed after inflamed starters Erick Fedde, Kyle Gibson, Miles Mikolas and Andre Pallante were collectively besieged for 18 earned runs in 20 and ⅔ innings for a 7.84 ERA in the previous four games. Gray dealt with the first-inning emergency and closed the wounds.

5. John Mozeliak, the president of baseball ops, for bringing Tommy Pham back to where he belongs and making the peoples happy.

ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT: With the victory, the Cardinals avoided blobbing into a .500 mess and moved up a step on the ladder to 58-56 …the Redbirds trail the 1st place Brewers by six games in the NLC … the Braves were hammered (10-9) by the Brewers Monday. It was Atlanta’s third straight loss and there’s been some shuffling at the wild-card table. The Padres are in the No. 1 slot, a half-game ahead of the Diamondbacks, and the Braves have drifted into the No. 3 spot. After that, the Mets are 1 and ½ games behind the Braves and the Cardinals are three games out of the third spot … Atlanta is 6-10 June 20 … Mike Shildt’s Padres are 12-2 since July 20, and the surge has pushed their record to 10 games over .500 at 62-52 … the Diamondbacks are another hot team, reaching 61-52 on the season by winning 16 of their last 21 games … St. Louis is 10-14 since July 10 and 17-18 since June 27.

TOMMY PHAM: In eight games since returning to his baseball homeland, the tenacious outfielder is 11 for 29 (.379) with three doubles, a triple, two homers and a team-leading nine RBIs. Since being traded here by the White Sox, Pham has a .400 onbase percentage and .759 slug and has pummeled lefties for two homers, six RBIs and a .706 slugging percentage. The Cardinals have won four games since Pham put the uniform back on; in those four victories Tommy was 8 for 14 (.571) with six extra-base hits and eight RBIs.

AUGUST ANGST: In their six games played so far this month the Cardinals are 3 for 38 (.079) with runners in scoring position. All three hits were singles, and their batters struck out 31.5 percent of the time in those RISP tests … the Redbirds have averaged 3.0 runs per game and are batting .216 overall in August … after Scott and Pham produced all four of the team’s runs for the game, the Cardinals went 3 for 18 the rest of the way after Pham’s HR.

THE ‘GOTTA GET GOING’ LIST: The Cardinals have some shivery bats. So here are the guys that need to heat up:

+ Alec Burleson: in 14 games since July 22, the big man is 8 for 55 for a .146 batting average. He’s had one extra-base hit (a homer) and no multi-hit games over that time. One of the problems for the left-swinging Burleson is being used more often against LH pitchers. This season Burly is 22 for 114 (.193) against lefties with a .218 OBP and .281 slug. Per wRC+, Burleson is 61 percent below league average offensively this season when facing lefthanders.

+ Willson Contreras: he’s 4 for 33 (.121) with 11 strikeouts in his last nine games.

+ Lars Nootbaar: 6 for 31 (.194) with a .297 OBP and .226 slug since July 23.

+ Contreras, Burleson, Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Gorman and Nootbaar are a combined 10 for 81 (.123) in the team’s first six games in August. And this month the five hitters are 0 for 17 with runners in scoring position. Mercy.

THE WALKER WATCH: Jordan Walker had two hits including a double for Triple A Memphis on Monday. In his last 11 games, Walker is 17 for 47 (.362) with a .415 onbase percentage and .681 slug. And six doubles and three homers. If the Cardinals decided it was worthwhile to promote Walker back to the big club, manager Oli Marmol wouldn’t have to use Alec Burleson so much against lefty throwers. (That said, Walker has had his own struggles vs. LHP.) In the early days of August, STL’s right-handed hitters have a .228 average, .681 OPS and four homers in 139 plate appearances.

SONNY GRAY: In his first three months as a Cardinal, Gray pitched to a 2.98 ERA and 2.53 fielding independent ERA (FIP) in 15 starts and had a superb 31.3 percent strikeout rate. He got smacked around in July with a 6.75 ERA in four starts. But his first two August assignments were encouraging, with Gray allowing four earned runs in 14 innings (2.57) to the Cubs and Rays. Even with the turbulence in July, Gray ranks fourth among NL starters this season in FIP (2.92) and strikeout rate (30.4%). And the Cardinals have a 13-8 record in Gray’s 21 starts.

Gray had some unfair results in July. Gray got away with a lot of hard contact by opponents in June, but wasn’t as fortunate in July. Last month he was tagged for five homers, six doubles and a .534 slugging percentage. But batted-ball luck played a part. Here are the monthly batted ball in play averages against Gray in 2024:

• .333 in March-April
• .250 in May
• .267 in June
• .422 in July
• .206 in August

Gray’s whiff-swing rate has been consistently good each month. One problem for Gray in his stormy July was his normally wicked sweeper pitch.

In every other month of the season, opponents never hit higher than .160 or slugged higher than .226 against Gray’s sweeper. But in July, they thrashed the sweeper for a .333 average and .444 slug … with an expected slugging percentage of .516. And while Gray’s whiff-swing rate on the sweeper was good in July, it wasn’t as formidable as in other months.

BIRD BYTES

– Looking forward to Erick Fedde’s first home start as a Cardinal. He goes against the Rays tonight. And after a bad day at the Wrigley Field office in his first start for St. Louis, I think we’ll see Fedde’s sweeper confound the hitters. While pitching for the White Sox this season Fedde allowed a .167 average, .194 OBP and .333 slug when flipping the sweeper.

– Nolan Gorman has only eight plate appearances in August; that ranks 11th among Cardinal hitters.

– In 73 plate appearances since June 23, rookie catcher Pedro Pages is batting .319 with a .347 OBP and a .391 slug.

– I don’t know what this says about the St. Louis offense, but since the beginning of July the two best batting averages on the team belong to rookies Michael Siani (.313) and Pedro Pages (.291)

– In 73 plate appearances since June 23, the rookie catcher (Pages) is batting .319 with a .347 OBP and a .391 slug.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the the Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube, which just went online. I’ll be doing these at least five times per week, and will limit the length of each episode to 10 to 13 minutes. Please subscribe, and here’s the link:

@TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: The Cardinals Get Help From Unexpected, And Expected, Places. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

OK, let’s dismiss the pleasantries and go straight to the fomenting frustration that’s making my head throb. So it’s time for a therapy session. Please join me.

Doctor, I’m tired of …

1. The endless wish-casting over Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. They’re doing the best they can, but Grandpa Time never loses. When an athlete ages – and the clock moves differently for every player – the diminution of power and skill is inevitable. This is the sad reality. Arenado is 33 (and looking older) and Goldy is nearly 37. Two years ago, through the team’s first 113 games, the corner infielders had combined for 53 homers. This year, through 113 games, they have combined for 28 homers. They’ve had their share of big moments, but both are slugging under .390.

Doctor, I’m tired of …

2. Being constantly exasperated by Nolan Gorman. In 166 plate appearances since June 5, the tormented slugger has a .157 average, five home runs and a 41.6 percent strikeout rate. Two things about that: That’s the worst strikeout rate in the majors over that time … and 107 major-league hitters have more home runs than Gorman since June 5. His season began with promise but it’s all gone terribly wrong. The Cardinals were counting on Gorman to take his power even higher in 2024, after he led the team in homers (27) and slugging percentage (.478) last year. Is there a hitting instructor in the house? Recommendation: have him work with Jim Edmonds, who understands power swings from the left side. Jimmy had plenty of down times with too many swings and misses, but he always found a way to get back in sync. Edmonds understands Gorman better than Gorman understands Gorman.

Doctor, I’m tired of …

3. Waiting on Jordan Walker. That sound you hear is a large man generating thunder with his bat. In his previous 10 games coming into Tuesday, Walker had five doubles, three homers, four walks, a .357 average, .417 onbase percentage and a .691 slug. Am I rushing it or being unreasonable to suggest that it’s just about time to bring him back to the big club? The Cardinals have a putrid offense. They have too many right-handed hitters who flail and fail against lefty pitching. Walker wasn’t a monster against LH pitchers last season in his rookie campaign, but I don’t care about that. The Cardinals need instant impact. And now that Walker is booming again, he has as much chance to deliver as anybody in their organization. Oh yeah, and the Cardinals don’t really have a right-handed hitter on the bench. If Walker returns, he’ll have to start most games, but when he doesn’t start, his bat is at the ready in the dugout.

Do you know what right-handed hitting pinch hitters have done for the Cardinals this season? This: 5 for 38 (.132) with a .211 slug. (And their RH pinch hitters are only 2 for their last 23, or .087.) Or the Cardinals can do nothing, and watch Walker blast away down at Memphis, and win games for the Triple affiliate instead of the major-league team in ST. Louis that’s desperate for offense and right-handed muscle. The team’s right-handed batters have provided league-average offense this season but rank 24th among the 30 teams in homers and 27th in doubles.

Doctor, I’m tired of …

4. Counting the days until Lars Nootbaar performs in a way that matches his hype and potential. Over his first three seasons as a Cardinal, Nootbaar had a .351 onbase percentage, slugged .429 and posted a 116 OPS+ that was 16 percent above league average offensively. His impressive plate discipline included a 14 percent walk rate. Noot could wear down pitchers with extended at-bats and walks, then knock ‘em down with doubles and homers. We’re all waiting – and wanting – more of that. But in 245 plate appearances this season through Monday, Nootbaar had a .324 OBP, a .388 slug, and an OPS that put him just a tad below league average offensively.

That’s not enough. We know there’s more because we’ve seen it from Noot in the past. Sure, injuries have curtailed Noot’s momentum and consistency, but he came back from the IL about a month ago and has a .296 OBP, .356 slug and only two homers in 73 at-bats since then. His walk rate is way down from his usual standard, and his strikeout rate is on the rise. It’s past time for Nootbaar to kick it in and help fuel this tired offense.

Doctor, I’m tired of …

5. The auto-reflex, cop-out habit of blaming manager Oli Marmol for everything. Oli makes mistakes – don’t all managers? – but I’m not sure what we expect him to do with this offense. He’s tried lineup changes. He’s moved Arenado and Goldy up and down the card to see if what might work better for them. He’s given younger hitters an expanded opportunity. His handling of rookie shortstop Masyn Winn has been pretty much perfect. I could go on … and yes, I agree with those of you who criticized his decision to remove hot-hitting Michael Siani to use Brandon Crawford as a pinch-hitter against Cubs reliever Hector Neris. But again, all managers screw up with some isolated in-game decisions over 162 games. Earlier today, I said I didn’t understand why Marmol allowed Andre Pallante to labor through the fifth inning, running up a high pitch count, until the Mets broke the game open with three more runs off a tired pitcher to make it 6-0.

Here’s what I want to know. The Cardinals came into 2024 depending on four hitters to drive this offense: Goldschmidt, Arenado, Gorman and Walker. Heck, we can even put Nootbaar on the list and make it a group of five. I’ve already reviewed the disappointing seasons of all five hitters, and you already know about it.

So how do we think the St. Louis offense would be doing in 2024 if all five hitters came through with above-average seasons (or more) instead of struggling through hard times and contributing seriously less offense than expected?

I don’t know how many managers could thrive under these circumstances. They aren’t miracle men. If one or two hitters go south, it’s easier to jerry-rig things and come up with solutions. But this front office didn’t give Marmol much of a bench. So when all five guys that you’re heavily dependent on experience a substantial fall-off, then here’s what you have: an offense that ranks 14th among 15 National League teams in runs per game.

OK, I feel better now. Therapy session over.

If some of you disagree with me, that’s OK. You should be venting. That’s healthier than keeping all of the frustration bubbling over inside.

Thanks (as always) for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the the Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube, which just went online. I’ll be doing these at least five times per week, and will limit the length of each episode to 10 to 13 minutes.

Please subscribe, and here’s the link:

@TheBernieShow

You should follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: Time For A Therapy Session On The Cardinals. So Let’s Vent. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

The Cardinals sleep walked through a 6-0 loss to the Mets on Monday afternoon, and I don’t know what to say after sitting through it.

Actually, I do know what to say: Thank You, Cardinals, for your role in making sure I got a chance to nap after waking up way too early yesterday. I didn’t miss much. Just another depressing defeat.

After the Cardinals all but nodded off Monday, manager Oli Marmol didn’t like a question from the media seats, wondering about the team’s urgency. Marmol insisted that urgency isn’t the problem. Well, he’s probably right about that because the Cardinals have much larger issues to resolve — and soon — or they’ll flicker out and fade from whatever race they’re running … if they’re running. Because yeah, as I mentioned Monday morning, I hate that overused word (urgency). But whatever the Cardinals are doing, it ain’t nearly enough. We all can talk for hours about the stuff they’re not doing. And that includes bringing the constant intensity to the field that’s that’s necessary to grind out wins during these dog days of summer.

It’s now or never, boys. You’re .500 over the last 42 games, and that pace will lead you to one place, and it ain’t first place or a wild-card spot. Nope, playing .500 ball the rest of the way will lead you straight to the offseason.

Let’s Review …

OFFENSE: The word of the day is “moribund.” No runs, dominated by a left-handed starter, 0 for 7 with runners in scoring position, seven men left on base. The Cardinals have lost four of their last five games. During this 1-4 bummer they’ve averaged 2.8 runs, hit .207, and wilted to a .580 OPS. That’s not the worst of it. In flopping to the Cubs and Mets, the Cardinals had three hits in 34 at-bats with runners in scoring position. That’s an .094 batting average, my friends. Oh, and they struck out 34.3 percent of the time in their RISP plate appearances. I’m sorry, there is no excuse for this.

ALLERGIC REACTION TO LEFT-HANDED PITCHING: New York’s Sean Manea must have been salivating as he went to the mound Monday. A lefty pitcher can’t expect guaranteed results every time out, but I imagine Manea must have felt great about the matchup vs. St. Louis. Indeed, he pitched seven shutout innings, getting flicked for six hits while striking out 35.7 percent of his batters faced on this steamy day. The latest failure left the Cardinals with a .227 average against LHP this season, and they’re ranked 29th among the 30 teams against lefties in onbase percentage, slugging and OPS. Water flowing underground. Same as it ever was. Here a twister comes, here comes the twister. Same as it ever was. (Hat tip, David Byrne.)

ANDRE PALLANTE: The right-hander was good for the first four innings (one run) but got baked in the fifth by the hot temperature and a determined sequence of great at-bats by New York. The Mets absolutely wore Pallante down. After getting the edge on Francisco Lindor with an 0-2 count, Pallante threw four consecutive balls for a walk. The Mets had the bases filled with one out, and Pallante was up to 25 pitches. What happened next was predictable: on the 29th pitch Tyrone Taylor ripped a bases-clearing three run double. And in doing so, Taylor doubled the NYM lead from 3-0 to 6-0. Pallante was belatedly removed after his 34th pitch of the fifth. Way too late. Pallante threw 38 percent of his 90 pitches for the game in that fateful fifth. But did it matter? The Cardinals didn’t score a run. Pallante could have pitched a gem, and the result would have been the same. Another loss. The Cardinals have dropped 14 of their last 23 games and are 16-18 since June 27.

PALLANTE VS. RH BATS: In the start, the Mets’ right-handed batters went 4 for 12 (.333) with two doubles, a walk and five RBIs. Dealing with right-side bats has been a weakness during Pallante’s big-league career, and that problem resurfaced Monday. RH batters have a .277 average and a .429 slug in Pallante’s starts this season. He has a cumulative 5.83 ERA against them in his 11 starts.

STARTING PITCHING: Turning the clock back to June 18, the St. Louis starters have a 5.15 ERA in their last 42 games. That ranks 23rd in the majors over that time. The rotation’s ERA was 4.08 in the team’s first 71 games. That was seventh in the NL and 15th overall. In their current 1-4 slide, Redbirds starting pitchers have a 6.51 ERA. This is an ominous trend, but perhaps the Cardinals will get three solid-to-strong starts from Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde and Kyle Gibson in the three-game series against visiting Tampa Bay. against Tampa Bay over the next two nights. Someone in this rotation needs to step up and get this rotation on a calmer and more confident groove.

HOME-FIELD DISADVANTAGE: The Cardinals are 5-7 in their last 12 games at Busch Stadium – and a blah 26-29 at home overall in 2024.

SCHEDULE UPDATE: Beginning Tuesday, the Cardinals enter a 30-game stretch that should tell us if they’re a serious postseason contender – or not. On the schedule, 90 percent of the next 30 games will be played against teams with a winning record, and all of those teams went into Tuesday with a higher winning percentage than St. Louis. Tankathon rates the remaining STL schedule as the third most difficult in the majors behind Tampa Bay and Kansas City.

METS, CARDINALS GOING IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS: After a loss to the Diamondbacks on June 2, New York fell to a season-worst 11 games under .500 at 24-35. But since reaching the low point, the Mets are 35-18 for an excellent .660 winning percentage that leads the majors since June 3.

ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT: The Cardinals (57-56) have slipped to third place in the NL Central, with the second-place Pirates ahead of them by a percentage point. The Pirates are 14-8 in their last 22 games, with the primary reason being a very good ERA (3.37) … the Cardinals are back to six games behind first-place Milwaukee … the Pirates and Cardinals are four games out of the third wild-card spot, with the Mets in front of them at only 1 and ½ games from the third spot. Right now Atlanta, Arizona and San Diego are nestled in the three wild-card berths.

PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT: The Cardinals are experiencing their own version of a stock-market crash. They reached their highest point of the season with a win at Washington on July 8 and were six games above .500 at 48-42.

At that stage the Fangraphs projection model gave St. Louis 21.4 percent chance of winning the division, a 34.3 percent shot at grabbing a wild-card and an overall 55.6% probability of making the postseason.

After Monday’s drubbing by the Mets, the Cardinals have just a 9.7 percent chance of winning the division, a 6.2% shot at a wild-card and an overall postseason probability of 15.9%. A big change over the last month — to say the least.

DYLAN CARLSON RETURNS: The former Cardinal outfielder returns to Busch, his home from 2020 until this year’s trading deadline on July 30. St. Louis selected him out of high school with the 33rd overall choice in the 2016 MLB draft. In his first three games for Tampa Bay, Carlson went 2 for 8 with a two-run homer and eight strikeouts.

“Overall, I mean, [I’m] 25 years old. I feel like I’ve got a lot of baseball ahead of me,” Carlson told media that cover the Rays. “I feel like I’m in a really good spot here with this organization, and I just think it’s a good match.”

The Cardinals received right-handed reliever Shawn Armstrong from Tampa Bay in exchange for Carlson. Armstrong has looked good so far, striking out six in four innings with one run allowed on a solo homer.

A warm welcome home to Tampa Bay pitcher Pete Fairbanks, a St. Louisan who graduated from Webster Groves High School before pitching at Mizzou.

“I’m pretty excited,” Fairbanks told Tampa Bay media. “Should be a pretty good turnout for a lot of people. I played there in high school. I played there in college. And now, hopefully, [I will] get an inning there in the big leagues.”

And another welcome home for Rays outfielder Kameron Misner, a Mizzou alum who made his MLB debut on Aug. 2. He grew up in Poplar Bluff.

Misner, the grandson of a cattle farmer, is fired up about coming to St. Louis. Here’s a fantastic Misner quote, courtesy of MLB.com: “Where I’m from, everyone’s diehard Cardinals fans. Rural area, a bunch of farmers, they get off work and they all drive their tractors around listening to Cardinals games. It’s pretty cool. I’m really looking forward to it. It’s going to be awesome.”

As always, thank you for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please check out the Bernie Miklasz Show channel on YouTube, which just went online. I’ll be doing these at least five times per week, and will limit the length of each episode to 10 to 13 minutes. Please subscribe, and here’s the link: @TheBernieShow

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: Cardinals Have To Get Going. I Don’t Want To Say Now Or Never … But It’s Now Or Never. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

With their schedule down to 50 games, the Cardinals (57-55) don’t look like a postseason-bound team. It doesn’t mean they’re doomed. They’re still breathing in races for the NL Central title and the league’s wild-card derby.

It’s time for another reality check. The recent trends are discouraging, and that should be recognized instead of losing ourselves in a blathering and childlike palaver of ceaseless Happy Talk. We can be adults here, yes?

The Cardinals can only make the playoffs by rising above their seeping mediocrity. And that’s just part of it. Next is the challenge of successfully steering their way through a brutally tough schedule.

The Redbirds must get significantly improved results from their anesthetized offense, a warping starting rotation, and an overall lack of consistency. And we can’t expect the bullpen to rescue the team from their own flaws and fiascoes.

And personally speaking, I’m declaring a moratorium on using the word “urgency” with this team. I don’t want to hear manager Oli Marmol praising his players for being “convicted” in their desire to outwrestle other contenders to earn a playoff spot. On too many occasions, the Cardinals reveal an alarmingly low level of passion for competing. And they’re easily discouraged.

Sunday night’s 6-2 loss to the Cubs was a joke for several reasons, but this bothered me the most: After Masyn Winn put the Cards up 2-0 with his two-run homer in the third, the St. Louis offense went into full zombie mode, producing one hit in the final 22. They reached base only three times in the last 24 plate appearances Sunday.

The Cardinals had ample opportunities to score all weekend but batted .120 with runners in scoring position overall and were 2 for 19 (.105) with RISP in their three losses. The Cubs were kind enough to donate a victory to the visitors on Saturday. This act of charity prevented the Cardinals from losing all four games to a team with a losing record.

Miles Mikolas was lousy again on Sunday, giving up a 2-0 lead by allowing four runs in four innings. The Cardinals dropped to 11-12 in his starts this season, and Mikolas has a 7.14 ERA in those dozen team losses.

So you’ll have to excuse me for guffawing at this post-game quote …

“If we’re going to turn it on, we’ve got to turn it on now,” Mikolas told media people after the game. “I know we’ve got a good stretch coming up against winning ball clubs — teams that if we make the playoffs we’re probably going to see like the Dodgers and Padres — so now is the time to really turn it on.”

I didn’t realize that turning on a high-intensity drive to win games is something controlled by an on/off switch or by connecting to wi-fi. Silly me, for thinking the Cardinals had the aggressive mindset of showing up to “turn it on” for every game. I guess not. And that right there tells us a lot about this team.

Here’s an updated look at the “State of the Cardinals” and the factors working against them in a 50-game push that will determine their fate.

1. DISCOURAGING TRENDS

– The Cardinals are 7-9 since the All-Star break, with 13 of the 16 games coming against opponents that were no better than two games above .500.

– The Redbirds are 9-13 in their last 22. And 16-17 in their last 33. And 21-20 in their last 41 games. Does this look like a momentum-churning team that’s about to go off on a delirious stretch of dominant winning?

– The Cardinals have a 26-31 record (.456) against winning teams, are 17-19 in the NL Central, have a losing record (28-30) on the road, and have a modest 29-25 mark at home. They’re 5-7 in their last 12 games at Busch Stadium and have a losing record (8-9) in their ballpark since June 26.

2. THE ONEROUS REMAINING SCHEDULE

• 82 percent of the games will be against opponents that have a better run differential than the Cardinals.

• 70 percent are against teams that currently have winning records.

• 60 percent are against opponents that currently have a better record than the Cardinals.

*48 percent are against opponents that currently hold a postseason spot.

• 70 percent are against teams that have a postseason claim ticket in hand now – or are no worse than 4 and ½ games out of a playoff spot.

There aren’t many soft spots over the next 50 games, with only 30 percent of the conflicts coming against teams that have losing records.

According to Tankathon, the Cardinals’ remaining schedule is the fourth-toughest in the majors, after the Rays, Royals and Rockies.

3. THE INCREASINGLY LONG ODDS

Fangraphs projects a 25-25 record for St. Louis over the remaining 50 games, and that may be a tad optimistic. The Fangraphs forecast has the Cardinals ending up with an 82-80 mark. If accurate, that would leave the Redbirds out of the postseason tournament.

Excluding the three current division leaders, four wild-card candidates have a higher projected win total than St. Louis – Braves 88, Diamondbacks 87, Padres 87 and Mets 84. According to the million game simulations done by the brilliant Clay Davenport, the third NL wild-card team averaged 86.1 wins.

Current probability of the Cardinals making the playoffs:

• Baseball Prospectus 24.3 percent
• Clay Davenport 22.08%
• Fangraphs 20.8%.

4. THE WHEEZING OFFENSE

Every now and then the Cardinals go on a scoring spree that charms us into believing that the offense is straightening out and becoming more capable. But the truth of the matter can be found as easily as looking at the MLB and NL rankings. That takes in the entire season and discards any small sample sizes that are mixed in for cherry picking.

The Cardinals’ average of 4.18 runs per game is 14th among the 15 NL teams and 22nd overall. Among NL teams they’re 11th in slugging, 10th in onbase percentage, and 10th in homers.

The most uninspiring aspect of the weak St. Louis attack is its performance with runners in scoring position this season. The Cardinals rank 26th in batting average, 28th in onbase percentage and 29th in slugging. At .345, the Cardinals have the worst slugging percentage by an NL team.

5. THE FUTILITY VS. LEFT-HANDED PITCHERS

The retching continued in the series against the Cubs, with the Cards batting .213 vs. Chicago’s lefties. That includes a 3 for 31 showing (.097) over the final three games.

For the season, the Cardinals rank 29th in the majors against lefties in batting average (.228), onbase percentage (.290), slugging (.349) and OPS (.639).

This condition is even more depressing when the Cardinals have runners in scoring position. When facing lefthanders in RISP scenarios the Cardinals rank 29th in batting average (.214) and onbase percentage and are dead last in slugging percentage (.300) and OPS (.639). Horrendous.

In facing St. Louis batters 733 times this season, left-handed starters have a 4.00 ERA and have held Cardinal hitters to a .678 OPS. But the problems run deeper than that. Here’s something that’s been largely overlooked: lefty relievers have faced 548 St. Louis hitters and have a 3.07 ERA this season. And overmatched Cardinal hitters have batted a faint .205 against lefty relievers with a .586 OPS. This ailment is usually framed along the lines of how the Cardinals do against left-handed starters. Don’t forget their frequent submission to lefty relievers.

The only regular Cardinals that have an above-average wRC+ against lefties this season are Willson Contreras, Paul Goldschmidt and Masyn Winn. All others are below average — or simply awful — against lefties. Goldschmidt gets singled out a lot for his down season — much of of it justified — but there’s nothing wrong with his .804 OPS vs. lefties in 2024.

One problem: some of STL’s best hitters — Nolan Arenado, Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan and Alec Burleson — aren’t effective against left-handed pitching. Sure, we can understand that with the left-handed hitters (Burleson, Donovan, Nootbaar.) But Arenado has a slash line of .243/.266/.408 against LHP this season. And Burleson is a liability against lefties. For all of the damage that Burly does against right-handed pitching, his slash line against left-handed pitching is an abysmal .194/.221/.287. There is no reason to have him in the lineup when the other side has a lefty starter on the mound.

6. THE DETERIORATING ROTATION

— Through their first 71 games of the season, St. Louis had a 4.08 starting-pitching ERA that ranked 15th overall. And in the 71 games, Cards starters limited opponents to a .246 average, .402 slug and an average of 1.07 home runs per nine innings. Not great … but pretty good.

— In the 41 games played since June 18, St. Louis starters rank 22nd in the majors with a 5.05 ERA and opponents have banged out a .274 average and .463 slug plus a rate of 1.4 homers per nine innings. The group’s collective swing-and-miss and strikeout rates decreased over that time.

Here’s another way to look at how certain parts of the rotation have performed since June 18 …

* Andre Pallante and Michael McGreevy have a collective 3.21 ERA in seven starts – six made by Pallante.

* All other St. Louis starters including Nick Fedde, Matthew Liberatore and Gordon Graceffo: 34 starts and collective 5.47 ERA.

The four principal starters since June 18:

* Miles Mikolas: eight starts, 6.14 ERA
Kyle Gibson: seven starts, 5.40 ERA
Sonny Gray: seven starts, 5.10 ERA
*** Lance Lynn: seven starts, 4.66 ERA.

The Cardinals are 21-20 since June 18th, and the overall slippage of the starting pitching is high on the list of concerns, though I trust that Fedde will improve. In STL’s 20 losses since June 18, rotation members were pounded for a 7.18 ERA.

The starting pitcher ERA isn’t the only factor. Deficient run support remains an issue. In four of the team’s 20 losses since June 18, the Cardinals went down despite receiving a quality start from rotation personnel.

7. THE WARNING SIGNS FROM THE BULLPEN

The Cardinals were ranked sixth in the majors with a 3.40 bullpen ERA through July 8, and put up a record of 48-42 in the first 90 games of the campaign.

Since returning from their July 9 off day, the Cardinals rank 22nd in the majors with a 4.64 bullpen ERA and are 9-13. The bullpen strikeout rate has plummeted to 18.7 percent over the last 22 games.

As a staff, the Cardinals are giving up more runs over the last month or so. Through July 4, the Redbirds ranked 12th in the majors with an overall 3.85 ERA. But there’s been some bleeding. The Cardinals have a 12-14 record and 4.84 team ERA (23rd) since July 5.

I’m not trying to bum anyone out.

I’m not trying to be negative.

I’m just presenting the facts.

The Cardinals obviously have a helluva of things to correct and improve on between now and game No. 162. Including Monday’s makeup game against the Mets, the Cardinals will play just one losing team (the Reds) over their next 10 series. The imminent block of schedule features 28 games against the Mets, Rays, Royals, Dodgers, Brewers, Twins, Padres, Yankees and Mariners.

I’ll be back with more later on …

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: With 50 Games To Go, The Cardinals Have A Lot Of Problems. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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WEEKEND AT BERNIE’S

The Cardinals were fortunate to leave Wrigley Field with a 5-4 win on Saturday. For the most part, the Redbirds took advantage of the windy city being the windy city and the Cubs being the Cubs. Balls that were hit into the tempested air befuddled the Cubs, who were distracted into miscommunication and misplays. The rally included an untimely walk and hit batter, plus a particularly wild and egregious throwing error by Chicago’s new third baseman.

A Nolan Arenado bloop was lost in the turbulence and the Cubs’ defensive tomfoolery and became a two-run single that tied the score 4-4 in the eighth. Tommy Pham tripled to open the ninth and scored on Lars Nootbaar’s sac fly for the winning run. Cards closer Ryan Helsley entered in the bottom of the ninth and recovered from Thursday’s gruesome blown save to retire the Cubs in order.

That’s about all of the play-by-play you’ll get from me, because the game was played 24 hours ago and you already know what happened.

By winning the Cardinals avoided a potential four-game sweep but remained in danger of losing three out of four. In Sunday night’s matchup the Cubs will dispatch lefty Justin Steele in the attempt to fluster the St. Louis hitters. The visitors are hoping to get the win and depart the friendly confines with a 2-2 series split. The chance to win will largely come down to this: Good Miles, or Bad Miles? The Cardinals are 11-11 this season in starts made by Miles Mikolas. In the 11 wins, his ERA was 3.17. In the 11 losses, his ERA was 7.02.

Now, let’s get to more important matters, and I’ll explain why Lars Nootbaar is so important to the Cardinals’ immediate future …

ST. LOUIS OUTFIELD: THE TEMPLE OF GLOOM. The heart-warming story of Michael Siani was interrupted Saturday by a strained right oblique. The ailing side muscle moves the center fielder to the side for a stay on the 10-day Injured List.

Seven thoughts on this concerning development:

1) It’s a damn shame. Not only will the Cardinals miss Siani’s fantastic defense in center, but the injury hits the pause button on his dramatic improvement as a hitter. In his previous 31 games (26 starts) before Saturday’s interruption, Siani batted .354 with a .391 onbase percentage and .415 slugging percentage. That stretch included a .368 average and .419 OBP in Siani’s previous 21 games. In an unanticipated bonus, Siani was coming on as a hitter.

2) Victor Scott II is back. With Tommy Edman (wrist) and Dylan Carlson (shoulder) unavailable at the start of the regular season, the Cardinals gave Scott an opportunity to show his readiness for the majors. Well, the rookie wasn’t ready, batting .085 in 21 games before the Cardinals reassigned him to Triple A Memphis. It happens. Jackson Holliday, MLB’s No. 1 overall prospect, went 2 for 34 (.059) with 18 strikeouts in an April look by the Orioles. Holiday was returned to their Triple A affiliate, put in his time, and was promoted to Baltimore in late July. He’s hitting much, much better the second time around.

Scott’s overall numbers at Memphis were disappointing, but he got molten-lava hot over his last seven games, batting .370 with a .485 OBP, .704 slug, three homers and 10 RBIs. (John Denton of MLB.com tells us that Scott’s turnaround came after he worked with roving instructor Ryan Ludwick, who suggested a leg kick.) One of the home runs was a booming grand-slam. No predictions are being made here, but if nothing else I have to think Scott is more prepared to go against big-league pitching. We’ll see. The speedy Scott should have above-average range defensively in center … but that wasn’t the case during his April audition for the Cardinals.

3) Scott’s return could reset the platoon in center, but don’t count on it. Had Siani stayed healthy, the Cardinals planned to go with Tommy Pham vs. left-handed pitchers and stay with Siani against right-handers. Could Scott just assume the Siani role and extend the platoon system with Pham?

I’m skeptical unless Scott gets a chance and proves he can be competitive against right-handed pitching. Pham whales on lefty pitching, so that part is set. Can Scott do enough against righties to earn and justify platoon-split role? Frankly, the numbers are ugly. Scott batted .083 against RHP pitching for the Cardinals in April. In 282 plate appearances vs RHP during his time in Memphis, Scott hit .202 with a weak .599 OPS.

4) Lars Nootbaar is absolutely an option in center. All eyes are on Noot. He isn’t Siani defensively in center. But we have to get over that because the Cardinals don’t have a center-field defender that compares to Siani. Among his other qualities, Siani covered vast spaces on balls hit to his left, and to his right. Statcast rated him No. 1 among major-league center fielders in side-to-side range. Siani not only took care of his own responsibilities, but he made it a lot easier for the team’s corner outfielders. The Cardinals can’t replace Siani’s range, so there is no point in crying about it.

Nootbaar is a capable center fielder, having played 708 innings there since the start of the 2022 season. Nootbaar isn’t rated as highly as Edman or Carlson in Outs Above Average over that time, but that doesn’t mean he struggles at the position. Via Statcast, Nootbaar is a plus center fielder at two outs above average from 2022-2024. And in the success-rate metric for center fielders, Statcast had Edman at 91 percent, Nootbaar at 90%, and Carlson at 88%.

Nootbaar had favorable metrics in the Ultimate Zone Rating for center fielders. He’s also ranked among the top 21 percent of major-league outfielders in range, and he’s in the top 17 percent for arm strength.

Noot’s offense is superior to Scott’s offense. (Stating the obvious!) Since the start of 2023, Nootbaar has batted .260 with a .367 OBP and .447 slug against right-handed pitching. And his wRC+ vs. righties over the last two seasons is 26 percent above league average offensively.

The Cardinals desperately need offense, and I don’t think it’s optional. Sunday morning the FanGraphs playoff odds gave the Cardinals a 23.4 percent chance to make the postseason – and time isn’t on their side. After Sunday’s ESPN broadcast at Wrigley Field, the Cardinals will have only 50 games left on their regular-season schedule.

5. Nootbaar has never been as important to the Cardinals’ fortunes as he is right now. This is a simple declaration: the St. Louis Cardinals need Lars to hit up a storm, and play solid center-field defense, and provide his best all-around form each time he plays. We’ve seen it in the past, the way a healthy, confident Nootbaar can improve the Cardinals with his all-around value. He can elevate the offense. He doesn’t have to be spectacular in center field; respectable defense will do. And Nootbaar must stay healthy and avoid another round of injuries. A series of frustrating physical breakdowns has impacted Nootbaar’s offensive momentum and prevented him from reaching his full potential. Nootbaar is an aggressive outfielder, so hold your breath. Since the start of the 2023 campaign he’s missed 103 days to injuries.

After returning from the IL on July 8, Nootbaar has batted only .229 with a .295 OBP and .357 slug. His walk rate (8.9%) over that time is low by his standards. His strikeout rate (22%) over that time is high by his standards. Per wRC+, Nootbaar’s overall offense since rejoining the Cardinals is 15 percent below league average offensively. That won’t do from here on out. Nootbaar has to be a lineup-accelerating catalyst for the Cardinals to thrive. He can’t be a malfunctioning part that needs more fixing.

6. What about Pham in center field? I’m assuming he’ll be out there when the opponent starts a lefty. But given the lateness of the schedule, manager Oli Marmol shouldn’t hesitate to use Pham in center on days when Nootbaar is in the lineup in right field or left field. Pham’s numbers vs. right-handed pitchers has been slightly below average (but respectable) since the start of 2021, and it makes sense to use him more than Scott in center field. Scott is available as a defensive replacement, and that’s a plus for Marmol in the late innings.

Pham, 36, was an above-average center fielder in his younger days, but that’s no longer the case. Pham hasn’t had an above-average rating as a center fielder since 2017 and was a minus seven in defensive runs saved when playing CF for the White Sox this season. That said, Pham is rated slightly below average (minus one) in Outs Above Average. It’s fine to wonder (worry?) about Pham’s defense in center, but he should be OK at any of the three outfield spots.

Did I mention that the Cardinals are starving for consistent offense? Through Saturday the Cardinals ranked 13th among 15 NL teams in runs per game (4.20) and were eighth in OBP, ninth in home runs, 10th in OPS, and 11th in slugging.

That’s why I’m adamant about this point; the Cardinals have to prioritize offense, even if it means sacrificing some outfield defense during Siani’s absence. Pham has been amazing since coming over from the White Sox. In his first five games since the trade, Pham went 8 for 17 (.471) with four singles, two doubles, a triple, a grand-slam home run, four runs scored and seven RBIs. If the bat is scorching, it should be in the lineup. And I don’t think the Cardinals are sacrificing any defense by using Nootbaar in center field. Siani can’t help them right now, so comparing his defensive skills to Nootbaar’s defense or Pham’s defense is irrelevant. Stupidly so.

7) The Cardinals’ outfield chaos is never-ending. Even before we start tabulating Siani’s time on the IL, St. Louis outfielders have missed 220 days to injuries this season: Edman 129, Nootbaar 53, Carlson 38. And since the start of the 2023 season, the Cardinals have endured 476 injury days missed by outfielders. And in reality that total should be around 500 days because Brendan Donovan missed the final two months of ‘23 to have elbow surgery and had started 16 games in left field before that. I don’t believe in jinxes or curses. But the Cardinals’ outfield drama has no limit. And that includes the saga of Jordan Walker, the former No. 1 prospect who was demoted to Memphis this season on April 24.

BIRD BYTES

+ The Cardinals picked up a game on the Brewers on Saturday. And the Brewers lost at Washington on Sunday afternoon, which means the Cardinals are five games behind Milwaukee going into their series finale in Chicago. With Sunday’s 4-3 loss, the Brewers are 10-14 in their last 24 games. The Brewers have a 2-6-1 in their nine series played since the beginning of July and that includes an 0-4 series record at home. Next up for the Brewers: three games in Atlanta.

+ STL’s starting-pitching ERA is 5.06 since the start of July, a figure that ranks 22nd overall and 11th in the NL.

+ The Cardinals went 3 for 21 (.143) with runners in scoring position during their first three games of the current series at Wrigley. And the Redbirds were 9 for 41 (.220) with men on base.

+ After completing their season series against the Cubs, the Cardinals will play 28 of their next 31 games against opponents with winning records. The Cardinals are 26-31 this season when facing opponents that are .500 or better.

+ JoJo Romero had his fourth consecutive strong outing in Saturday’s win, returning the Cubs in order in the eighth with one strikeout. Romero was credited with his fifth win of the season. making him 5-1. In his last four appearances Romero has pitched 4 and ⅓ scoreless innings, held opponents to a .133 batting average and struck out 33.3 percent of hitters faced. In 14 appearances from June 11 through July 23, Romero had a 5.00 ERA, allowed a .342 average and .919 OPS, and struck out only two of 43 batters.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.

The post Weekend At Bernie’s: Lars Nootbaar Has Never Been As Important To The Cardinals As He Is Right Now. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

What

What’s up with Ryan Helsley and the Cubs?

Why do the Cubs turn the Cardinals’ All-Star closer into a palooka when they see him standing on the mound? I don’t get it …

That’s my No. 1 takeaway from the Cardinals’ sudden and hideous 5-4 loss Thursday night at Wrigley Field. Helsley couldn’t guard-dog a 4-2 lead in the ninth. The Cubs busted him for three runs. And the beatdown was nothing new; it continued a disturbing trend.

Stats you need to know about Helsley’s strange futility against the Cubs in 2024:

Helsley vs. all other teams this season: 41 innings, eight earned runs, 1.76 ERA.

Helsley vs. the Cubs this season: 5 and ⅔ innings, six earned runs, 9.53 ERA.

Other teams, batting line vs. Helsley this year: .184 average, .256 onbase percentage, .213 slugging percentage, one home run in 160 plate appearances.

Cubs, batting line vs. Helsley this year: .414 average, .485 onbase percentage, .690 slug, two home runs in 33 plate appearances.

Other teams, strikeouts/walks vs. Helsley this year: 30.6 percent strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate.

Cubs, strikeouts/walks vs Helsley this year: 15.2 percent strikeout rate and 12.1% walk rate.

After the Cubs blasted Helsley (again) to the thunderous delight of their ecstatic loyalists at Wrigley, a lot was written and said about Helsley’s approach. Should have thrown more fastballs. Should have thrown fewer sliders. His approach didn’t work.

The one spot-on aspect of this assessment was Helsley’s erratic control of his slider. He left a few up in the zone which made the pitch more hittable.

Relative to his workload before the All-Star break, Helsley hasn’t pitched all that much since the resumption of play. His slider wasn’t sharp against the Cubs, with six of 12 pitches out of the strike zone.

OK, but let’s dig a little deeper on this.

Helsley hardly owned the Cubs with his four-seamer last night. The sizzler averaged 99 mph but the Cubs didn’t flinch. The Cubs had no problem handling the Hesley heat, going 2 for 4 with a single, a double, and a 50 percent hard-hit rate.

The Cubs swung at six four-seamers and put four in play. He got only one swing and miss. And Mike Tauchman’s game-winning double came on a Helsley four-seam.

The Cubs did some damage on the slider, with Dansby Swanson’s game-tying double that made it 4-4. And it’s certainly fair to second-guess the strategy of throwing sliders to Swanson on all five pitches during their confrontation.

The other wound was Cody Bellinger’s leadoff homer to open the ninth. It came on a curveball (huh?), Helsley’s third-best pitch and one he’s used on only seven percent of his offerings this season. Bellinger sent the aberrant curve into the bleachers to narrow STL’s lead to 4-3. So much for the plan to catch Bellinger off guard with the curve.

It doesn’t matter what Helsley throws at the Cubs this season. They’re teeing off on him. Sorry about all of the numbers, but I have to show you the stat to underline an important point …

Helsley’s four-seam vs. all other teams this year: .288 average, .346 slug, 37.5% hard-hit rate.

Helsley’s four-seam vs the Cubs this year: .393 average, .571 slug, 52.5 percent hard-hit rate.

Helsley’s slider vs. other teams: .128 average, .141 slug, 50.6 percent whiff-swing rate, 19% hard-hit rate, and a strikeout rate of 45 percent.

Helsley’s slider vs. the Cubs: .357 average, .429 slug, 46.4% whiff-swing rate, 20% hard-hit rate, and a strikeout rate of 25 percent.

Is this randomness? Is he tipping pitches? Are the Cubs onto something after studying his usage patterns? I don’t know, but this is strange.

Helsley has allowed 14 earned runs this season. The Cubs have scored 43 percent of them, but in only six games.

FRUSTRATION: The worst part of Thursday’s debacle was the way Helsley had the Cubs in serious trouble … two-out trouble, two-strike trouble, and on the brink of losing. But he couldn’t finish them off.

In the ninth inning Helsley had nine two-strike counts on the Cubs, but the North Siders recovered in those situations to strike back for three hits, all for extra-bases, on two doubles and a homer. Helsley had three 0-2 counts and five 1-2 counts on the Cubs … and didn’t get a strikeout. Both the game-tying, and game winning, double game on two-out, two-strike pitches.

PERSPECTIVE: Before Thursday’s late collapse, the Cardinals were 45-2 when leading a game through seven innings, and had an immaculate 48-0 record when leading after eight innings. If we’re being realistic about this – and I had previously written this several times – that type of excellent late-inning security is difficult to sustain over an entire season. And that’s especially true of a 2024 Cardinal team that plays so many games decided by one or two runs – and games that go into extra innings.

This pattern of living dangerously puts extreme pressure on the St. Louis bullpen, and it’s preposterous to demand perfection from their high-leverage relievers over 162 games. The Cardinals have done well in these narrow outcomes this season, ranking ninth in the majors with a .556 winning percentage before Thursday night in games decided by one or two runs. But one got away this time, and the Cardinals’ winning percentage in one-run and two-run games dropped to. .546. (This includes their updated 20-15 record in one-run games.)

All of this is still quite good, even after Thursday’s jarring jolt. But here’s the concern, which I’ve expressed here several times before: what happens to the 2024 Cardinals if the bullpen cracks? The Redbirds are overly dependent on their bullpen, and need greatness from their bullpen. As we know, the difference between winning and losing with this team is marked by a very thin line. And with so many of these games coming down to a bullpen duel, the Cardinals leave themselves vulnerable too often.

Their relievers have been fiercely effective in protecting close leads late in games, but if this established strength starts to weaken, this team will be in real trouble.

STL’s 3.97 bullpen ERA ranks 17th in MLB since the start of July. Before that the Redbirds had the 10th-best bullpen ERA in the majors. We’ll watch this trend to see where it goes.

THE CARDS OFFENSE: COULD HAVE DONE MORE: There were some positives, which I’ll get to. But the bottom line was four runs in nine innings. The Cardinals had one hit in six at-bats with runners in scoring position, that coming on Nolan Arenado’s RBI single in the seventh to increase STL’s lead to 4-2.

But in their other RISP situations, the Redbirds went 0 for 2 in the second inning, 0 for 1 in the third, and 0 for 2 in the ninth. They left eight runners on base overall. The Cubs were 4 for 7 with runners in scoring position and left only four runners stranded.

The Cardinals went 2 for 9 against Cubs relievers and didn’t score a run. JoJo Romero pitched a scoreless eighth for the Cardinals but the Cubs won the bullpen battle by hammering Hensley with four hits in six at-bats, including the solo homer and two crucial doubles that delivered three runs. The Cardinals were put away over the last two innings by right-handed Cubs relievers Jorge Lopez and Nate Pearson.

LIST OF POSITIVES

– Nice rebound by Cards starting pitcher Sonny Gray. He held the Cubs to five hits, a walk and one run in his seven innings and struck out 34.5 percent of batters faced. Before getting the snap back in his pitching, Gray had been smashed for a 6.67 ERA in his previous five starts.

– Romero struck out two of three batters faced in the eighth. This was a great sign given his startling loss of strikeout power in recent weeks. Romero has struck out four of 12 batters faced (33.3%) over his last three appearances. Before that, Romero had struck out only two of 43 hitters (4.65%) in 14 appearances.

– Paul Goldschmidt went 3 for 5 against the Cubs with a double and a homer. In his last 25 games, Goldy is batting .276 with a .514 slugging percentage – and has seven doubles and six homers over that time. Goldschmidt launched the six homers in his last 19 games, averaging a homer every 12.6 at-bats during the heat-up stretch.

– Michael Siani had two hits Thursday. In his last 101 plate appearances going back to June 17, Siani is batting .330 with a .364 onbase percentage and .426 slug. Outstanding.

– Per wRC+, Siani is 26 percent above league average offensively since June 17. And his .330 average ranks 11th overall and fourth among NL hitters among those who have at least 100 plate appearances over that time.

– Two more hits for Tommy Pham, making him 6 for 10 with a homer and six RBIs in three games as a reborn Cardinal.

– Masyn Winn gave the Cardinals a 2-0 lead with a two-run homer in the second inning and went 2 for 5 for the evening. It was Winn’s fourth homer in his last 16 games. And he has seven multi-hit games during the 16-game stretch.

– Arenado has four hits in his last two games and is batting .276 with a .483 slug and five RBIs in his last eight contests.

ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT: With Thursday’s setback the Cardinals are 56-53 on the season … they’re 3-5 in their last eight games, 8-11 in their last 19 games, and 15-15 in their last 30 … the loss dropped the Cardinals to 5 and ½ games behind first-place Milwaukee in the NL Central … the Cards lead third-place Pittsburgh by a half-game … in the wild-card keno, the Cardinals are two games behind Arizona for the third wild-card spot, and are perched a half-game behind the Mets, who are fourth.

PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT: As of Friday morning, the FranGraphs postseason probabilities give the Cardinals a 12.1 percent shot of winning the division, an 11.2 percent chance of getting a wild card, and an overall 23.3 percent likelihood of making the playoffs. Among the non-division leaders, four teams (Braves, Padres, Diamondbacks, Mets) have a better chance of reaching the playoffs then St. Louis.

Good luck to Erick Feddes in his Cardinal debut on Friday afternoon (1:20 p.m.) at Wrigley Field.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: Cardinals Lose 5-4 At Wrigley. What Is It With Ryan Helsley And The Cubs? appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

I’m sorry that I’m running late today in getting this column posted. It’s one of those days. All good. Just hectic for unexpected reasons …

Anyway…

The Cardinals are in Chicago to begin a four-game series at Wrigley Field and will try to build on their series win over Texas.

I want to write a piece looking at all of the unexpected surprises – of varying degree – that have elevated the Cardinals to evolve from being an early-season failure to postseason contender. Every team that wants to win needs these guys, and the Cardinals have many of them.

Here’s my list of the most pleasant surprises during the first four months of the Cardinals campaign …

MICHAEL SIANI: The resourceful center fielder is easily the most unexpected surprise of the season, and his importance to the team is increasingly obvious. We can talk about his low power (.324 slug) and 26 percent strikeout rate. But let’s not miss the larger and important picture that encompasses Siani’s value.

Siani’s exceptional defense really matters. His speed is an asset. His deft small-ball touch makes a difference. Siani is an unusual talent during an era of baseball where power reigns supreme, and the more subtle skills are overlooked and underappreciated.

Here are some indicators of Siani’s value …

+ The Cardinals are 42-33 (.560) when Siani starts a game this season, and 14-19 (.424) when he doesn’t.

+ Since the Cards began turning their season around on May 12, they have a 34-21 record (.618) when Siani starts and a .500 mark (7-7) when he’s not in the opening lineup.

+ When Siani appears in a game in any capacity – starter or reserve – the Cardinals have a 55-43 record for a .561 winning percentage. When he hasn’t played in a game, the team is 1-9 for a .100 winning percentage.

OK, now let’s look at the categories that showcase Siani’s attributes …

Defense: Siani is tied with Washington’s Jacob Young for the most Outs Above Average (15) among major-league outfielders. He’s tied for first with a 96 percent success rate, and ranks No. 1 in outs above average to his left, and outs above average to his right. His success-rate added (8%) is the best by a major-league defender at any position.

Speed-baserunning: Siani has an extra-bases taken percentage of 53%, which is a full 10 percent higher than the major-league average. Siani ranks among the top 21 percent of major-league players in sprint speed. That’s a primary reason for his .307 batting average on ground balls. Leads the Cardinals with 14 stolen bases, and his 82.3 percent success rate is tied for ninth in the majors among players that have attempted at least 15 steals.

Small-balling: Siani’s productive-out percentage (50%) is by far the best among Cardinal regulars and 23% and 22 percent above the major-league average. When Siani bats with a runner on second base and no outs in the inning, he’s moved the runner over nine times in the 10 situations. With a runner on third base and less than two outs, Siani has got the run home eight times in 13 attempts for a 61.5 percent rate that’s 10.5% higher than major-league average. Siani leads MLB players with 10 sacrifice bunts.

About Siani’s offense: I’m aware that Siani has a 77 wRC+ for the season that puts him 23 percent below league average offensively. That’s the worst among Cardinal regulars. OK, fine. Again, I’m aware of his limitations. But this also must be recognized: Siani is getting better, month by month. I’ll show you the info, using his batting average and wRC+. For those who don’t know or care about the fancy-pants wRC+, that’s fine with me. It’s a meaningful metric, or I wouldn’t use it.

I’ll translate, providing the monthly wRC+ percentages for Siani’s season. And as you’ll see, Siani’s gradual improvement is a real thing, and obvious.

Monthly batting average:

• .128
• .254
• .277
• .310

Monthly wRC+

• 69 percent below the league average.
• 31 percent below average.
• 7 percent below average.
• Exactly league average, 100 wRC+.

OK, I’m not saying this makes Siani the next Tony Gwynn. But when a dude (a) plays elite, best-in-majors defense; (b) is your team’s best baserunner; and (c) makes an impact with his tool box of fundamentals, it really doesn’t matter if he’s an average overall hitter or slightly below it.

In his first two months of 2024, Siani batted an abysmal .206 with a horrible 54 wRC+ that made him 46 percent below average offensively.

In June-July, Siani batted .293 with a 97 wRC+ that was only three percent below league average offensively. And given everything else Siani brings to the competition, there isn’t a gosh-darned thing wrong with being three percent under average offensively over a two-month period.

Siani’s offensive improvement is accelerating. He has a .353 batting average since July 5, and is hitting .320 since June 12.

In the month of July, Siani ranked No. 1 among regular Cardinals in batting average and No. 2 with a .355 onbase percentage.

Siani’s steady progression in Wins Above Replacement reaffirms his versatile skill set. Because of his defense, baserunning and other positives, he’s been above average in the WAR in each of the last three months. That’s applicable here because WAR encompasses offense, defense and baserunning and is a solid if imperfect indication of someone’s all-around play.

So we’re looking at a talent that had 0.3 WAR in his first two months but has generated 1.2 WAR over the past two months.

Siani’s 1.5 WAR for the season is just a tad below Nolan Arenado (1.6), higher than that of Masyn Winn (1.4), the same as Brendan Donovan (1.5), and better than Lars Nootbaar, Alec Burleson, Nolan Gorman and Paul Goldschmidt.

Moreover, Siani leads the Cardinals with 1.2 WAR since the start of June. This just proves a player can have good value even if he doesn’t hit home runs or stack a big pile of RBIs.

OK, raise your hand if you expected Michael Siani to have more WAR this season (1.5) than the combined total (0.4) of Nolan Gorman, Paul Goldschmidt and Jordan Walker.

Lawdy!

Now that I’ve offered my latest tribute to the Cardinals’ top underdog story of 2024, let’s recognize some of the other Redbird surprises who have helped turn the team with a pitiful 15-24 start into the club that has the NL’s finest winning percentage (.594) since Mother’s Day.

RYAN FERNANDEZ: The largely unknown Rule V draft choice was touted as a young pitcher with potential, and he’s been all of that and much more. Among regular St. Louis relievers, Fernandez leads the bullpen in innings (49), is second to Ryan Helsley in strikeout rate (24%), third in ERA (2.57), third in holds (10), and fourth in Win Probability Added. And Fernandez has been charged with only one blown save. When Andrew Kittredge and JoJo Romero were slumping, Fernandez became the Cards’ second most reliable reliever behind Helsley. What an outstanding addition. Hat tip to front-office advisor Chaim Bloom.

ANDRE PALLANTE: With the Cardinals desperate for someone to step up and take over as the fifth starter, Pallante responded with a 3.61 ERA in 10 starts since joining the rotation on May 28. Pallante’s ERA is well clear of the next-best ERA – Miles Mikolas, 4.41 – by a regular STL starter over that time. Ironically, Pallante may be displaced by trade-deadline acquisition Erick Fedde – but not as long as Lance Lynn stays on the IL with right-knee inflammation.

MASYN WINN: After a wobbly late-season rookie trial in 2023, I thought Winn would settle in and have a decent 2024, then get better through added experience. He’s exceeded my expectations, and the same can be said of most Cardinal fans.

Let’s review the reasons why:

* Winn leads St. Louis position players in WAR – in the Baseball Reference version, and the FanGraphs version.

* Winn leads all MLB rookies with 3.6 bWAR, and is third in fWAR.

* Among MLB rookie position players, only Jackson Merrill (Padres) has more offensive bWAR than Wynn, and it’s close.

* Winn is not only the highest-rated MLB rookie on defense at any position; he leads all major-league shortstops with 12 defensive runs saved and double plays and is No. 2 at the position for best range.

* Among Cardinal regulars, Winn is second in batting average (.280), third in OPS (.734), third in onbase percentage (.330) and third in wRC+ (108). He’s also second on the team in runs scored and has batted .281 with runners in scoring position.

* Among MLB hitters that have at least 60 at-bats on an 0-2 count, Winn ranks first with a .298 batting average. And among MLB hitters that have at least 200 at-bats on two-strike counts, Winn ranks third with a .265 average. The only dudes that have a better two-strike batting average than that are Jose Ramirez and Bobby Witt Jr.

ALEC BURLESON: I was on the Burly Bandwagon long before most folks boarded the trolley. But no, I didn’t expect the hulk of hitting to be leading the Cardinals in batting average (.281) and runs batted in (63) and rank second in homers (18), slugging percentage (.467), OPS (.782) and wRC+ (119).

PEDRO PAGES: I knew the Cardinals’ baseball people thought highly of the developing Pages and have felt that way for two or three years before 2024. That said, I didn’t envision Pages leaping ahead of Ivan Herrera to secure an important role as the No. 2 catcher.

Pages’ pitch-framing metrics have slipped some, and Willson Contreras is still the best St. Louis catcher at throwing out stealers. But Pages has a special touch in calling pitches, and has the team’s lowest catcher ERA at 3.72. Among big-league catchers that have been behind the dish for at least 1,200 plate appearances this season, his 3.72 ERA ranks 13th among 46. He’s really good back there.

As a bonus, his offense is coming alive. Since June 22, Pages is hitting .333 with a .365 OBP and .417 slug for a .782 OPS. For the month of July, Pages ranked seventh among MLB catchers with a .310 batting average and was six percent above league average offensively. Pages is a .272 hitter since the beginning of May.

JOHN KING: The lefty reliever seemed to be a throw-in last July when the Cardinals packaged starting pitcher Jordan Montgomery and reliever Chris Stratton in a trade for two Texas Rangers’ prospects. King came along, and pitched well (1.45 ERA) for the Cardinals in a lost season. But was that earned-run average for real, or just a limited-sample outlier? I think we’ve gotten our answer this season.

King has been a damn effective reliever in 2024, and manager Oli Marmol isn’t reluctant to use him in big spots. King has a 2.61 ERA in 41 and ⅓ innings covering 38 appearances. When Marmol has summoned King into games won by the Cardinals, King has an 0.77 ERA in 23 and ⅓ innings over 20 appearances. His Win Probability Added in those situations is above the league average.

King has controlled LH batters this season, with a cumulative 0.98 ERA against them. King’s cumulative ERA is higher (3.60) against right-handed batters, but he doesn’t walk many of them and has suppressed their power with a 56.6 percent ground-ball rate.

And that’s what he does. King’s overall 63 percent ground-ball rate is the sixth highest among big-league relievers that have pitched at least 30 innings in 2024. And only one left-handed reliever (Tim Hill) has a higher GB rate than King.

King was (and is) definitely more than a throw-in.

IVAN HERRERA: I don’t want to forget about the rookie catcher and how he came to the rescue to fill the void created when Willson Contreras suffered a fractured left forearm against the Mets on May 7.

From the moment Contreras left that game until he returned from the Injured List on June 24, the Cardinals were tied for a surprising ninth in the majors in wRC+ at the catcher position.

Herrera’s defensive weaknesses were exposed and his power decreased, but I don’t want to hold that against him because he’s still developing.

The Cardinals needed offense from the catcher spot after losing the hard-hitting Contreras, and Herrera got it done. When Herrera started a game at catcher (and not DH) during Contreras’ down time, he hit .321 with a .400 OBP and a wRC+ that was 27 percent above league average offensively.

The Cardinals went 24-16 (.600) with Contreras on the IL. Herrera and Pages maintained the strength at the position and the Cardinals continued to win.

CHRIS ROYCROFT: I know the rookie right-hander has a few crummy outings as of late, but for the most part he’s been a positive addition to the bullpen depth. And we can see that the talent and velocity are there. Roycroft must cut down on walks and come up with a more effective pitch to neutralize left-handed hitters. But Roycroft wasn’t on the radar screen before the season, so getting 24 appearances and 30 and ⅓ innings from him is a positive development for the Cardinals. And I think he’ll get better. This season Roycroft has held right-handed batters to a .203 average and .533 OPS.

KYLE LEAHY: I think he’s underrated because he’s light on the strikeouts and he’s been punched for some hard contact. But let’s keep it in perspective, eh? As one of the last guys on the bullpen depth chart, Leahy has to show that he can jump in at any time – riding that Memphis to St. Louis shuttle – and help the Cardinals get through an emergency. Leahy has done a good job with the role. He has a 2.54 ERA in 17 appearances and 28 and ⅓ innings since May 13. He’s worked in nine of the team’s wins, pitching to a 2.08 ERA in 13 innings.

ROOKIE PITCHERS: I’ve already mentioned a few of these guys – Fernandez, Leahy, Roycroft – but let’s take a look at what rookie hurlers have done for the Cardinals as a group this season. In addition to the three rookies I’ve cited, the Cardinals have also utilized Gordon Graceffo, Michael McGreevy, Ryan Loutos, Nick Robertson, Adam Kloffenstein and Riley O’Brien.

The totality of their work is impressive. The nine rookie pitchers have collectively handled 146 innings and have a 3.32 ERA. McGreevy was the latest rookie to get promoted from Triple A Memphis and raise his profile with a timely, outstanding performance. His seven-inning, one-run start to beat the Rangers was one of the most delightful surprises in a season of surprises.

Last season the Cardinals ranked 22nd in the majors in WAR from rookie pitchers. This season they’re 12th.

STANDINGS CHECK: In the NL Central the second-place Cardinals are five games in back of the first-place Brewers and a game up on the third-place Pirates. In the NL wild-card roulette, the Cardinals are currently sitting fifth among the teams hoping to win one of the three spots. What a rumpus. The Redbirds are 2 and ½ games behind the No. 1 Braves, two games behind the No. 2 Padres, trail the No. 3 Diamondbacks by 1 and ½, and are a half-game in back of the Mets, who are fourth.

DAILY PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT. I’ll be listing these daily during the week (and at times on the weekend) until the end of the regular season – until the Cardinals either clinch a playoff spot or get eliminated from contention.

Today: FanGraphs gives St. Louis has a 13.6 percent chance of winning the division, a 13.2% shot at grabbing a wild-card, and a 26.9% crack of qualifying for the postseason. It’s interesting that the Redbirds have about the same probability of winning the NL Central or securing a wild-card spot.

Including the three clubs that lead the divisions, seven NL teams have better odds than the Cardinals in reaching the postseason. Phillies, Dodgers, Brewers, Braves, Padres, Diamondbacks and Mets. But these odds change daily as teams turn hot or cold. I view the odds as a convenient snapshot of the shape of the race on that particular day.

TRIVIA: McGreevy became the latest alum of Cal Santa Barbara to reach the majors. The most prominent baseball alums of UCSB are Shane Bieber, Skip Schumaker, Barry Zito, Michael Young (the longtime Texas Ranger) and Ryan Spilborghs.

Thanks for your patience, and thanks for reading …

— Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: The Cardinals’ Season Is Full Of Surprisingly Good Performances. Let’s Highlight Them. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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I was curious to see how rookie starting pitcher Michael McGreevy would do in his big-league debut, getting the assignment for Wednesday’s game against the Rangers.

McGreevy, the 18th overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft, is still only 24 but it seemingly took him forever – OK, a long time – to reach the majors. McGreevy didn’t consistently wow anyone during his trek through the minors, and had a 4.45 ERA in 20 starts for Triple A Memphis this season.

If the Cardinals thought highly of him McGreevy would have received a big-league opportunity before now. I say that because this club has tried to address an obvious need for starting pitching. I wondered if St. Louis erred in drafting McGreevy in the first round, but it was fair to give them the benefit of the doubt. McGreevy has ability or the Cardinals wouldn’t have chosen him so early in the ‘21 draft. He’s not a high-velo, blow-away-the-hitters style of pitcher, and joined the organization at a time when the Cardinals were shifting to a more strikeout-oriented philosophy. To succeed, McGreevy must have precise control and impeccable location. He can’t get away with as many mistakes as a guy who throws 95+ miles per hour.

McGreevy has improved for Memphis in recent weeks, shaping a 2.94 ERA in his last nine starts. Rangers manager Bruce Bochy had four left-handed batters in his lineup to face McGreevy Wednesday, and that was no surprise. This season LH batters at Triple A had pummeled McGreevy for a .280 batting average, .359 onbase percentage and .480 slug.

I cannot lie. I didn’t have much confidence in McGreevy today. It was hard for me to look past his high Triple A earned-run average, average of 7.9 strikeouts per nine innings, and the number of bruises that left-handed bats put on him during his time in the minors.

Well … I’m pleased to repudiate my own doubts.

McGreevy had a wonderful debut, allowing one run and five hits in seven innings. The Cardinals busted the game open scoring eight runs with McGreevy in the game. The generous run support supplied a comfy cushion for the rookie, but McGreevy didn’t need it.

McGreevy retired 15 of 17 batters faced through five scoreless innings, allowing one hit and a walk. And he kept the Rangers down to earth with a 61.5% ground ball rate through five. The Rangers finally broke through for three hits and a run in the sixth, but McGreevy returned for the seventh inning to put a positive finishing touch on his first day in the bigs.

McGreevy had excellent command, got 12 ground-ball outs, and brought his best form from Memphis to St. Louis. The Cardinals can only be encouraged – thrilled – by what they witnessed. And the decision to give him the ball for Wednesday’s start was a good call. The Cardinals are in a chaotic stretch of schedule and needed something like this by McGreevy. He came through in a sterling fashion to exceed expectations.

McGreevy’s first big-league start was a Quality Start. He posted a Bill James Game Score of 65 – 15 points above average. The 65 game score put McGreevy in the top 20 for the best starts made by a Cardinal this season. Hey, what took the Cardinals so long to give McGreevy a chance? I’m just kidding. He accepted the challenge on Wednesday and displayed no nervousness. The apple-cheeked rookie was superb in every way.

“Surreal,” McGreevy said in a postgame, on-field interview with Jim Hayes of Bally Sports Midwest.

BIRD BYTES

1) Wednesday’s 10-1 romp gave the Cardinals their second straight victory and a 2-to-1 series win over the defending World Series champion Rangers. The two consecutive wins cut first-place Milwaukee’s lead to five games in the NL Central.

2) Tommy Pham’s outrageous grand-slam homer in Tuesday’s 8-1 triumph over Texas was the top individual highlight of the Cardinals’ season. For me, anyway. What an awesome return home for Pham, who was dealt away by the Cardinals in 2018 after he’d spent 13 eventful and challenging years in the St. Louis organization. It was a sad day when Pham left Busch Stadium, his first major-league baseball house. The Cardinals have never given a uniform to a player that has more heart and passion than T. Pham.

3) The crowd at Busch Stadium went bananas. The scene in the dugout was wired and alive. Filled with rambunctious, smiling, happy people. The affection was unreserved and generous. I’ve never seen the mostly stoic Paul Goldschmidt go bonkers the way he did in joining teammates in celebrating with Pham after the prodigal son circled the bases. This team – including the players – really wanted Pham to come here and aired their feelings to manager Oli Marmol and the front office. Dudes who were members of the same team as Pham here in St. Louis – Matt Carpenter, Miles Mikolas, Lance Lynn and (coach) Marmol – led the lobbying effort. And Cardinal fans always had a soft spot for Pham. They still do. You could see that, and feel that, as Busch Stadium rocked after his Pham slam.

“It was different because of the ovation and that’s probably my best moment here and one of the top moments of my career,” Pham told the media after the game. “There were guys pulling for one another. When a team comes together with that kind of togetherness, it’s a dangerous team.”

4) Pham’s roots in the organization extended through time. His first year in the St. Louis system was rookie-league ball in 2006. He played at the Triple A level for the Cardinals as late as 2017. And here he is, back again. You talk about a long and winding road.

5) Pham was a minor-league player teammate of Marmol for multiple years. Pham was also a minor-league teammate of current Cardinals coaches Daniel Descalso and Dean Kiekhefer.

6) I’m going to give you a lot of names here, but only because I think you’ll enjoy seeing them all and will appreciate Pham’s many connections. During his marathon-course expedition through the minors as a young and aspiring Cardinal, Pham’s teammates included the following logbook of players:

Lance Lynn, Matt Carpenter, Kyle McClellan, Tony Cruz, Colby Rasmus, Brendan Ryan, Pete Kozma, Adron Chambers, Xavier Scruggs, Matt Adams, Joe Kelly, Allen Craig, Shelby Miller, Oscar Taveras, Shane Robinson, Greg Garcia, Seth Maness, Carlos Martinez and Tyler Lyons.

Plus … Trevor Rosenthal, Michael Wacha, Kolten Wong, Stephen Piscotty, Randal Grichuk, Marco Gonzales, Harrison Bader, Jon Jay, Aledmys Diaz, John Brebbia, Carson Kelly, Jose Martinez, Alex Reyes, Luke Weaver, Paul DeJong, Jack Flaherty, Adolis Garcia, Zac Gallen, Ryan Helsley, Dakota Hudson, Daniel Ponce de Leon, Luke Voit, Patrick Wisdom, Edmundo Sosa, Mitch Harris and Austin Gomber.

7) Whew. Incredible. How about all of those names? Tommy Pham isn’t just a guy who has played for the Cardinals – he’s like a living history museum. He could probably tell you about more Cardinal players with his vast first-hand knowledge than some of the longtime baseball execs and minor-league supervisors and staff.

8) Pham’s new teammate, rookie shortstop Masyn Winn, was a lad of four years old when Pham made his minor-league debut with the Cardinals’ rookie-league affiliate Johnson City in 2006. Nolan Gorman and Michael Siani were six years old. Love it.

9) With one swing of the bat Tuesday, Pham instantaneously produced four RBIs off a lefty pitcher. That’s more RBIs than what Willson Contreras had this month against lefties, the same number of RBIs that Winn had this month against lefties, and only one fewer RBI against lefties than Nolan Arenado this month.

10) Pham followed Tuesday’s thunderbolt with three hits, two RBIs and two runs in Wednesday’s. That made him 4 for 5 with six RBIs in his first two days as a reborn Cardinal. It’s going to be a lot of fun to watch Pham do his thing and fire up the fans and teammates. The Cardinals have scored 18 runs in two games with Pham wearing the Birds on the Bat again.

11) How about Mr. Michael Siani? After going 1 for 3 with a run scored Tuesday, he was back at it on Wednesday with two hits in three at-bats, two RBIs, a run scored and a sac bunt that plated a run. Siani extended his hitting streak to seven games and has at least one hit in 10 of his last 11 contests. The increased offense has raised Siani’s season batting average to .253. He’s been climbing the metaphorical mountain. Siani had a .128 average at the end of April, a .206 average at the end of May, and a .234 average at the close of June.

12) Siani is 18 for 51 (.353) since July 5. He’s 32 for 100 (.320) since June 12. Marmol’s decision to prioritize defense by staying with Siani as his center-field starter against right-handed pitching is now paying off for the Cardinals offensively. Marmol knew what he was doing and deserves praise.

13) Given the intense pain he pitched through in Tuesday’s start, Lance Lynn did an admirable job of holding the Rangers to three hits, a walk and one run in his five innings of hard work on a balky right knee. Lynn certainly earned the win, and the Cardinals are 13-8 in his 21 starts.

14) The knee inflammation prompted the Cardinals to shut Lynn down and give him time to mend on the Injured List. Lynn has a 1.69 ERA in his last three starts in a positive stretch that’s reduced his season ERA to 4.09. A remix in pitching approach has worked nicely. Lynn has thrown 30 total changeups in his last two starts; before that he’d thrown 26 changeups in his previous eight starts.

15) It was unfortunate to see Lynn limp to the IL, but two things about that: (a) this will give him a chance to refresh, and (b) the Cardinals can turn to Andre Pallante to take the ball during Lynn’s absence. And that’s a plus. Pallante has been good in his 10 starts for the Cardinals this season.

16) Using the Baseball Reference version of Wins Above Replacement (bWAR), new St. Louis starter Erick Fedde had the second best bWAR (4.8) among MLB starters through Tuesday. The only pitcher to top that is Detroit’s Tarik Skubal (5.2 bWAR.) Fedde also had the best bWAR among starting pitchers that were traded this month. Second on the traded list was Jack Flaherty with 2.8 bWAR.

17) Our friend Ben Clemens, analyst at FanGraphs, put the Cardinals on the “Winners” List for trade-deadline moves.

“Tommy Edman surely has more value to the Dodgers than to the Cardinals, but he hasn’t played all year, hasn’t looked healthy in his rehab assignment, and is more of a nice complementary player than an All-Star,” Clemens wrote. “He’s kind of the hitting version of Fedde, only he’s not producing right now. He’s even hitting free agency at the same time and on a similar contract. The Cardinals needed pitching more than they needed hitting. And oh by the way, they even got a one-year outfield boost in old friend Tommy Pham, who clobbered a pinch-hit grand slam last night in his first game back with St. Louis.

“That would already put the Cards in the winners column – they needed pitching and got it, and they managed to do so without digging into their prospect war chest,” Clemens continued. “That’s lucky, because that’s basically all they did at the deadline. Their other move, Dylan Carlson for Shawn Armstrong, doesn’t really move the needle for me, though I understand the intent: They needed a fresh arm for their overworked bullpen. But even with trade deadline returns climbing back from the prospect-hugging lows, the Cardinals managed to get one of the best arms available on the market without breaking the bank.”

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: Tommy Pham, Michael McGreevy And The Power Of Instant Impact For The Cardinals. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

The Cardinals were a winner in the trading-deadline shuffle. Based on Wins Above Replacement (WAR) prorated over 162 games, the Cards came out near the top in an evaluation made by esteemed baseball analyst Neil Paine.

Here are the top 11 MLB teams in the net-gain rankings based on prorated WAR added and subtracted in deadline moves. The net gain applies to the remainder of the 2024 regular season:

• Padres, +7.1
• Cardinals, +6.3
• Mariners, +5.0
• Pirates, +4.4
• Dodgers, +4.3
• Yankees, +4.0
• Mets, +3.8
• Cubs, +2.9
• Red Sox, +2.8
• Diamondbacks, +1.9
• Orioles, +1.9

(Thank you, Neil Paine, for the information. And I’m happy to be a subscriber to your always informative Substack blog. I hope some our readers will check it out and do the same.)

As a simple adding-subtracting exercise, the Cardinals came out ahead in giving up super-utility guy Tommy Edman and backup outfielder Dylan Carlson in deals that brought in starting pitcher Erick Fedde, outfielder Tommy Pham and reliever Shawn Armstrong.

– Fedde was one of the top starting pitchers available on the market and the Cardinals have him in place for 2025.

– Pham filled an urgent need as a right-handed hitter who powders left-handed pitching. As if on cue, Pham emerged from the dugout to smash a pinch-hit, grand-slam home-run off Texas lefty reliever Cody Bradford to put the finishing hammer blow on an 8-1 victory.

– Armstrong’s 5.40 ERA has burn marks, but he had an outstanding 2023 season for the Rays, and is likely to provide helpful middle-relief depth for a hard-working St. Louis bullpen that can’t afford to wear down. Even with his flaws, Armstrong’s 0.5 WAR at Tampa Bay would be tied for the second-best among Cards relievers to closer Ryan Helsley.

– In the context of what’s at stake in 2024, the Cardinals didn’t diminish themselves by moving Edman and Carlson. The injured (but soon-to-return) Edman hasn’t played in a major-league game all season, and Carlson had reached the end of the line here. In 59 games he batted .198 with no home runs and an OPS+ that put him 53 percent below league average offensively.

Cardinals president of baseball ops John Mozeliak and colleagues identified three obvious needs and addressed them with moves made over the final 24+ hours of deadline deliberations.

The Cards reinforced three vulnerable areas without handing over premium prospects or veterans that were important to the big-league roster over the first three months of the season. And that’s amazing considering the difficult challenge of navigating a pro-seller’s market that had talent-searching teams overpaying to get what they needed.

Mozeliak and GM Michael Girsch managed to pull off a headache-free, no-regrets move for Fedde without squandering present or future capital.

And of course, Fedde has extra value because he’s under contract in 2025 at a bargain salary of $7.5 million. But the Cardinals obtained Fedde and his economy-priced contract for the kind of exchange you’d expect to give up for a rental. The Brewers, for example, gave the Reds two rostered talents – outfielder Joey Wiemer and pitcher Jakob Junis – for pending free-agent starter Frankie Montas and his 5.01 ERA.

The Cardinals moved on from Edman in what turned out to be a relatively easy decision because the team had already covered voids created by his four-month stay on the Injured List. The Birds also cleared nearly $10 million in guaranteed money owed to Edman for the remainder of this season and 2025.

Mozeliak strengthened the big-league club for the duration of 2024 and with the carryover benefit of getting 30+ starts from Fedde in 2025. The front office hoarded their coveted prospects to protect the future. None of these maneuvers caused a payroll jam that could limit their financial flexibility next offseason.

Pham can enter free agency at the end of the season. But if he’s a rental, he’s a helluva rental. With his scintillating slam to put the Rangers away Tuesday, Pham is already giving the Cardinals added muscle against left-handed pitching, and he’s been one of the best postseason hitters in the majors over the past nine seasons.

I look at it this way: there were trades within the trades.

+ The inactive Edman for the impressive Fedde.

+ A swap of outfielders, Carlson for Pham.

That works for me and should impress just about everyone.

“This is simply a great trade by Mozeliak and his staff,” baseball analyst Joe Sheehan wrote in his awesome newsletter. “The Cardinals upgraded both the regular-season and playoff rotations, while adding a strong platoon bat that addresses a key weakness. They might not have given up anything — I remain a complete skeptic on Edman until he, you know, plays — and at worst, they’ve taken a problem off Oli Marmol’s plate. This was very good work by one of the most maligned — by its own fans! — front offices in baseball.”

As an added bonus Mozeliak acquired Armstrong, a reliever that had a 1.39 ERA for the Rays last season. And the right-hander pitched well over the first two months of this season.

I’m not trying to sell the idea of Armstrong as an elite reliever. He’s not. But Armstrong’s strikeout rate is in line with that of current St. Louis right-handed relievers Ryan Fernandez and Andrew Kittredge, and he’s tough on RH batters (25% K rate.)

Here’s another reason for optimism: Armstrong’s fielding-independent ERA (3.76) is much lower than his baseball-card ERA. Why is that? The batting average on balls in play against Adams this season is .361 – tied for the sixth-highest against relievers that have worked at least 30 innings this season. Terrible batted-ball luck is an obvious factor in Armstrong’s ERA inflation.

OK, now let’s shift to another way of looking at the Cardinals’ effort in this year’s trade deadline.

Again, St. Louis did well. Praise. But this didn’t happen in a vacuum; the Cardinals were one of several National League postseason contenders that pushed to better themselves for the stretch run.

And four other NL wild-card contenders improved through trades: Mets, Padres, Pirates and Diamondbacks.

This month the Mets went for bulk by adding five pitchers and a bat. The new arrivals were starting pitcher Paul Blackburn, left-handed hitter Jesse Winker, and relievers Ryne Stanek, Phil Maton, Tyler Zuber and Huascar Brazoban.

The Padres paid an expensive premium-prospect price in trades for two of the best relievers out there, Jason Adam and Tanner Scott. Both have nasty strikeout stuff and low earned-run averages. Imagine trailing the Padres, moving into the late innings, and having to take on a procession of menacing relievers Adam, Scott and Robert Suarez.

The sneaky, dangerous playoff-candidate Pirates fortified their substandard offense with incoming trade bats Bryan De La Cruz (18 homers, 19 doubles) and Isiah Kiner-Falefa (.338 OBP, .420 slug, 115 OPS+)

The Diamondbacks upgraded a shaky bullpen in trades for relievers A.J. Puk and Dylan Floro, and went to market for insurance (Josh Bell) as starting first baseman Christian Walker heads to the IL.

So while the Cardinals were able to supplement their roster in a meaningful way and are a more capable team because of it, the overall magnitude isn’t quite as dramatic when measured against the collective moves made by others. The Cardinals “won” their trades, no doubt. But that doesn’t mean they’ll soar into the playoffs or even reach the postseason.

We’ll get some answers on that as the late-season schedule turns and evolves.

Here’s how it works in baseball: if the Cardinals come up short, it will lead to second-guessing. Why didn’t they do more? Were they too cautious? Did they need to be more aggressive and daring? Was it a mistake to stay clear of risk by making safer trades instead of pushing more chips to the center of the table in a higher-stakes gamble?

These are fair and reasonable questions. But I don’t expect the Cardinals to stray from their comfort zone. They haven’t been a so-called “all-in” gamer at the deadline for many years. This is how they do business. This is their philosophy. They have an aversion to a feverish, what-the-hell, let-it-roll, mad-men strategy.

Remember, there have been frequent failures for many of the teams that make the noisiest, riskiest, and most grandiose attempts at trading for a championship.

St. Louis isn’t one of those teams. Based on what the Cardinals are — and what they’ve been for a long time under chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. — no one should be surprised that they stayed on brand at the 2024 deadline. The Cards maintained their customary discipline. They followed their established standards and practices. They made smart, low-stress, no-trauma deals. Their pragmatic thinking covered 2024, and will last into ‘25. This is a good thing.

As always, the DeWitt-Mozeliak operation did it their way. But if management has an also-ran team again in 2024, it would mark the fifth time they’ve missed making the playoffs in the last nine seasons.

After the 2023 Cardinals posted the team’s worst record in a full season (71-91) since 1990, there’s added urgency to return to the playoffs. And getting shut out of the ‘24 playoffs would demoralize the fan base in a way that could decrease the revenue flow.

The front office did a helluva job with the moves they made over the past two days. But did they do enough? I can’t say for sure. The race looks like a close-call adventure that can go down to the final week of the regular season.

Should the Cardinals fall, I believe the disappointment would have a lot more to do with problematic developments that put them in such a vulnerable state. The power declines of Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. The lost season of Jordan Walker. Nolan Gorman’s extreme strikeout affliction.

Mozeliak has given his team more of a chance to overcome the existing negatives, and his moves boosted the team morale.

The good timing of Pham’s homecoming home-run bomb is obvious. The timing of adding Fedde looks crucial, because the Cardinals have placed starting pitcher Lance Lynn on the IL because of knee inflammation.

It’s an old rotation. Getting to the finish line with every starter intact was a longshot. And if the front office had dropped the ball on adding a starter, just think about the potential consequences. Who knows? These moves may get the Cardinals back in the playoffs. Without these moves, I don’t think there was much of a shot at returning to the playoffs.

That’s why I appreciate what the front office did here by bringing in Fedde, Pham, and an extra reliever. If the Cards get eliminated from postseason contention, then we can have another conversation and fuss about what they should have done. But all I know right now is this: the Cardinals are in better shape now than they were before.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: John Mozeliak’s Deals Paid An Immediate Dividend. That’s A Start. Not Sure About The Finish. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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BIRD BYTES

Notes on a hot summer day. I’ll have a lemonade, please.

1) New Cardinals starting pitcher Erick Fedde had 2.7 Wins Above Replacement for the White Sox before the trade to St. Louis. This is using the FanGraphs version of WAR. Anyway, Fedde’s 2.7 WAR is just about even with Orioles ace Corbin Burnes (2.8). And Fedde’s 2.7 WAR – a reflection of value – is higher than a number of notable starting pitchers including Aaron Nola, Luis Castillo, Shota Imanaga, Zach Eflin, Mitch Keller, Nestor Cortes, Tanner Bibee, Luis Gilll, Max Fried, Nathan Eovaldi, Brandon Pfaadt, Yusei Kikuchi, Freddy Peralta, Chris Bassitt, and Grayson Rodriguez. Not bad.

2) The White Sox had an 8-13 record in Fedde’s starts this season. What’s so great about that? Well, maybe this explains how good that really is. The White Sox had a .381 winning percentage in Fedde’s starts. But their winning percentage is .247 in all other games. Fedde gave a really bad team a chance to win; he yielded no more than three runs in 16 of 21 starts and held opponents to two or fewer runs in 14 of 21 assignments. In nine of those games, opponents had just one run or no runs.

3) The Cardinals will likely have a more dangerous offense in the postseason if they can make it there. Tommy Pham is the reason. Among 78 hitters that made at least 100 postseason plate appearances from 2015 through 2023, Pham ranks 2nd in batting average (.313), 12th in slugging (.513) and 18th in OPS (.846). Pham’s postseason wRC+ is 27 percent above league average offensively and ranks tied for 18th among the 78 batters with 100 plate appearances over the past nine years.

4) Washington reliever Dylan Floro? Could this happen? Hope so. Not a big strikeout guy, but his 2.06 ERA would look good in the Cardinals bullpen. He’d be a walk-year rental. Gets a lot of ground-ball outs. Limits walks. And the right-hander doesn’t have a platoon-split issue. This season LH batters have a .496 OPS against him. And RH bats have a .554 OPS.

5) Michael Siani drove in the team’s third run Monday against Texas with an infield hit. The center fielder is 10 for 25 (.400) in his last nine games. And in 73 plate appearances since June 24, Siani has batted .329 with a .356 onbase percentage and .400 slug. Siani is hitting .289 in July.

6) Here’s my Siani stat of the day: Among major-league outfielders that have at least 70 plate appearances since June 24, Siani’s .329 batting average ranks sixth behind Byron Buxton, Lawrence Butler, Juan Soto, Jackson Chourio and Mike Yastrzemski. And Siani’s .756 OPS since June 24 is higher than the OPS posted over that time by Corbin Carroll, Brandon Nimmo, Sal Frelick, Wyatt Langford, Jason Merrill, Harrison Bader, Adolis Garcia, Randy Arozarena and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (among many others.) This is based on at-bats taken when in the lineup as an outfielder. No DH numbers are included.

7) It’s been a tough year, but Paul Goldschmidt is doing pretty well in July. No, not compared to his MVP season in 2022. But better, yes, relative to what he’s been doing for most of this season. Too many strikeouts, yes. Still a problem. A poor onbase percentage, yes, still a problem. But this month Goldschmidt is hitting .252 with a .484 slug, six doubles and five homers. And in his last eight games, Goldy has batted .323 with a .677 slug and three homers + two doubles.

8) To put it another way: through the end of June, Goldschmidt had a .225 average, .361 slug and .655 OPS. But in July his batting average is 30 points higher, his slugging percentage is 123 points stronger, and his OPS this month (.655) is 103 points better than it was over the first three months of the season.

8a) Or we can parse it another way. Based on park and league adjusted runs created (wRC+) Goldschmidt was 12 percent below league average offensively during the first three months, but is 10 percent above average offensively in July.

9) Since June 22, Cards rookie catcher Pedro Pages is hitting .358 with a .390 OBP and .446 slug. Well done, big fella. Pages is one of the bright spots of the Cardinal season.

10) Let’s talk about Thomas Saggese. With Tommy Edman dealt to the Dodgers, Saggesse is making a case to fill a utility-infield role for the Cardinals in 2025. Saggese struggled after graduating to Triple A Memphis, and his offensive game stalled for a few months. But Saggese has adjusted and improved. In July he’s batted .347 with a .402 onbase percentage and .600 slug for a 1.002 OPS. Saggese came over at the 2023 trade deadline as part of the deal that sent pitchers Jordan Montgomery and Chris Stratton to Texas.

11) Just for kicks, here’s a prediction (which is more of a suggestion) by ball writer Joel Reuter of Bleacher Report. He proposes a deal that would send outfielder Kevin Pillar from the Angels to the Cardinals. “The Cardinals rank 29th in the majors with a .633 OPS against left-handed pitching,” Reuter wrote. “Pillar is hitting .375/.416/.625 with 11 extra-base hits in 77 plate appearances against southpaws, and he can handle all three outfield spots as a veteran bench piece. Even after the Tommy Pham addition, he could be a fit.”

12) Monitoring Nolan Gorman: the Cardinals are 4-6 since the All-Star break and Goman has played in only five of the 10 games, batting .167 with a .211 OBP and two homers. His strikeout rate in the five games is 47.3 percent. (Wince.) Gorman’s strikeout rate for July is 45.4 percent. Since June 8, the struggling left-handed slugger has a .164 average, .208 OBP and a sallow .313 slugging percentage. And that’s accompanied by a 44.4% strikeout rate. How can Gorman – with assistance from the Cardinals – turn his season around? A booming-bat Gorman would enhance the team’s chances of making the playoffs.

13) Side note: I never expected 2024 to turn out the way it has (at least so far) for Gorman and Jordan Walker. But they’re young and I have to believe in their talent and the probability of better days ahead.

14) Related note. Only 14 major-league hitters have had a higher percentage of 0-2 counts than Gorman’s 8.3 percent. Goldschmidt is right there with an 0-2 count percentage of 8.1%.

15) We’ll see what shakes out for the Cardinals, if anything, by the time the deadline buzzer sounds at 5 p.m. St. Louis time. I might have another column in me today.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Bird Bytes: Goldy Is Getting Better, Waiting On A Reliever, Pham In The Postseason + Other Bits. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

The Cardinals had many bouquets tossed their way Monday after acquiring starting pitcher Erick Fedde and outfielder Tommy Pham from the White Sox. It was part of a three-team transaction with Tommy Edman trading in Cardinal red for Dodger blue. The Cardinals managed to do this without sacrificing a potential star prospect in the maneuver.

— Keith Law, The Athletic: “I don’t know how the Cardinals managed to pull this off, but they got a very good and wildly underpaid starter plus a decent bench bat while giving up only a single prospect, a 17-year-old pitcher in the DSL named Oliver Gonzalez … Fedde has been one of the best starters in the American League by any measure this year, ranking second by bWAR and 10th by fWAR, and he’s been durable and able to work relatively deep into games … getting Fedde helps them this year as they try to claim a wild-card spot while also setting them up well for 2025.”

— Craig Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus: “The Cardinals fortified the middle of their rotation and gave themselves additional firepower against left-handed pitching for a player (Edman) they haven’t even seen on a major league field in 2024, and a DSL arm. There are, of course, other ways to frame the deal, but none of them preclude us from saying this was a really nice move by St. Louis, who absolutely needed a shot in the arm after falling out of a Wild Card slot recently.”

— Zachary Rymer, Bleacher Report: “In all, the Cardinals shipped out a player (Edman) they had been able to live without to get two players who should help them live an even better life.”

And if president of baseball operations John Mozeliak and advisors can secure a damn good reliever before Tuesday’s trading deadline, they’ll deserve some boutonnieres.

Baseball deals aside, the only problem for St. Louis Monday was the actual attempt to play baseball at Busch Stadium. But the Texas Rangers muted at least some of the STL buzz with a 6-3 victory. The home team scored one over the final six innings after Matt Carpenter deposited a two-run homer into the St. Louis bullpen for a 2–1 lead in the third.

The Redbirds sabotaged themselves with a couple of defensive fumbles by left fielder Alec Burleson and third baseman Nolan Arenado.

Starting pitcher Andre Pallante endured repeated instances of misfortune, making good pitches that the Rangers chipped or rolled for hits. More on that later.

The Cardinals offense is flickering. With Monday’s setback, the Cardinals have lost 10 of their last 16 games. And as the offensive cold front moved in, the Redbirds have been held to four runs or fewer 10 times, and scored no more than three runs eight times.

The Cardinals are only 2-5 in their last seven games. And we’re seeing how harshly the offense suffers when several of their most important pieces turn frosty.

Here are some examples pulled from the last seven games, a sequence that began July 21 …

+ Alec Burleson and Brendan Donovan have combined for six hits in 55 at-bats (.109) without an extra-base hit and one RBI. They’re a combined 1 for 8 with runners in scoring position over that time.

+ Let’s add some names to the slump list since July 21st, OK? Burleson, Donovan, Masyn Winn, Willson Contreras, Nolan Gorman, Nolan Arenado, Lars Nootbaar and Dylan Carlson have collectively batted .158 with 12 RBIs in 171 at-bats. The only positives in there are two homers apiece by Contreras and Arenado.

And there’s this statistical gold nugget …

During the current homestand, the Cardinals are 1-3 against the Nationals and Rangers. There’s something unusual about the four games:

• Plate appearances with runners in scoring position by the Cardinals: 24.
• Plate appearances with RISP by the Nationals and Rangers: 70.

Wait. Really? Yes. And that’s absolutely bananas.

Part of this is a reflection on the Cardinals’ pitching problems. But a lot of it also has to do with STL’s inability to create a sizable number of RBI opportunities.

When a team has only 24 plate appearances with RISP and the opponents have 70, well, what do you think will happen? This …

The number of runs scored with runners in scoring position by the Cardinals and their opponents over the last four games:

• Cardinals, 9
• Opponents, 31

Good grief.

ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT: Going into Tuesday’s game vs. Texas, the Cardinals are 11-12 in July, 6-10 since July 10 and 13-14 since June 27. St. Louis is 1-4 in its last five games, and has two victories in the last seven …

HOME ADVANTAGE? OR HOME INVASION? This is a major problem that’s negatively impacting the Cardinals in two races: their bid to chase down the first-place Brewers in the NL Central and hold down a wild-card playoff spot. The Cardinals are 3-7 at Busch Stadium in July for a .300 home winning percentage that ranks 25th in the majors for the month. Going back to June 27, the Cards are 5-9 in their last 14 games at Busch.

STANDINGS CHECK: After flopping Monday the Cardinals (54-52) trail the Brewers by seven games. They hadn’t been seven games out of first place since July 3. And the Cardinals are now tied with the Pirates (54-52) for second place in the division. As for the wild-card scrum, the Mets and Padres are tied for the second (and third) spots behind the Braves. The Mets and Pirates lead the Diamondbacks by a half-game and are two games above the Pirates and Cardinals and four games ahead of the Giants.

With Monday’s loss, the Cardinals have a 7.8 percent chance of winning the NL Central according to the FanGraphs playoff odds. And five contending teams currently have better odds of seizing a wild-card than the Cardinals. In order: the Braves (72.1%), Padres (55.3%), Diamondbacks (49.7%), Mets (49.6%) and Giants (17.4%) and Cards (15.1%).

POOR PALLANTE: First, he loses his spot in the starting rotation with the trade for Fedde. Then he goes to work against the Rangers and became the victim of a soft-contact curse. Pallante was charged with seven hits, and five never left the infield.

Here’s how Statcast categorized those seven hits against Pallante: two hits on flares/burners, one hit on poor/weak contact, four hits on poor/topped contact. The standard batting average against Pallante in this start was .318. Based on quality of contact, the expected batting average was .217. The Rangers put 17 balls in play against Pallante and had a gentle hard-hit rate of 23.5 percent. The visitors did not barrel a single ball, but had a .418 average on batted balls in play.

It was a paper-cut performance by Pallante, who went five innings. He had three earned runs placed next to his name in the box score and deserved a much cleaner pitching line. Since moving into the rotation on May 29, Pallante had a 3.61 ERA in 10 starts. Over that time, Pallante’s earned-run average was the best among St. Louis starters.

In 20 career starts for the Cardinals, Pallante has molded a 3.80 ERA. He’s pitched well enough to earn starts in a mediocre-to-average rotation, but the Cardinals obviously don’t see it that way. Baseball can be unfair. Pallante learned that twice on Monday: before the game when the trade news came – and then during the game, when the Rangers benefited from an absurd amount of batted-ball blessings.

CHRIS ROYCROFT: He had another relief performance in Monday’s loss, and his numbers have taken an ugly turn:

* 4.45 ERA for the Cardinals on the season.
Last eight appearances: 8.68 ERA.
A poor strikeout (13.8%) over the last eight outings.
A poor walk rate (10.8%) over the last eight.
LH batters have a .308 average, .393 OBP and .538 slug against Roycroft in his last eight call-ins from the bullpen.
*** RH batters have a .292/.393/.375 slash line against him over the last eight.

Roycroft has an obvious issue, and I’m basing it on the Statcast data from his last eight relief assignments. He doesn’t have much to get hitters off his harder pitches – the four-seam fastball, sinker and slider. He doesn’t throw a curveball. He doesn’t have a sweeper. He doesn’t throw a changeup. Roycroft’s four-seam fastball averages 95.4 miles per hour, and his sinker comes in faster at 96.1 mph. Roycroft goes with the slider for a different look, but hitters have clubbed it for a .294 average and .647 slug.

With no offspeed pitch or breaking ball, Roycroft has a limited arsenal. Hitters have picked up on it. They know what to hunt for. During his eight-game turbulent stretch, Roycroft has a poor 11.5 whiff-swing rate when throwing heat against LH batters, and those LH hitters have smashed his sinker for a 50 percent hard-hit rate. Roycroft can still overpower RH batters with his four-seamer, but he uses the sinker more frequently and right–handed hitters have batted .313 against it over his last eight outings. And the sinker isn’t a swing-and-miss weapon.

Roycroft doesn’t use the slider nearly as frequently as the sinker and four-seam when facing RH batters, and that makes him predictable. And he’s pretty much a two-pitch guy (four-seam, sinker) against left-handed hitters.

Roycroft has talent, but big-league hitters have zoned in on his pitching approach and can narrow the possibilities of what to look for when facing him.

Did I mention that the Cardinals still (very much) need a high-leverage reliever? The trade deadline expires today at 5 p.m. STL time.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: The Cardinals Are A Game Under .500 Over Their Last 27 Games. When Will They Reawaken? appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

Welcome home, Tommy Pham.

It’s hard to believe that Pham is 36 years old. But as a developing Cardinal prospect who got knocked down by injuries and a serious vision problem, Pham took the long road to the majors. And now he’s taken a long road back to St. Louis after the front office made the mistake of trading him to Tampa Bay at the trading deadline in 2018.

Pham was 30 at the time. But he’s made many stops covering many miles since he last wore the Birds on the Bat. Tampa Bay, San Diego, Cincinnati, Boston, the NY Mets, Arizona, the Chicago White Sox. And now he’s back, home at last.

I love what Cardinals manager Oli Marmol had to say when asked about the trade that brought Pham to the Cardinals.

“We didn’t just get a right handed bat, we got a guy that lives and dies for winning baseball games,” Marmol told media at Busch Stadium on Monday. “That’s who he is. And him walking through those doors is going to be very meaningful.”

Pham is edgy. He can be bristly. He speaks his mind. Always. And that made manager Mike Matheny nervous. Unless the voice was coming from one of the two or three players that Matheny wanted to hear from – basically, veterans that the manager feared – he had no use for mavericks who had the audacity to question something or offer an independent opinion that didn’t fit with cult-like groupthink.

Pham also fired up a blowtorch in a spring-training story published by Sports Illustrated in 2018. Throwing in a few nasty words – OK, he cursed – Pham questioned the Cardinals’ belief in him during his struggles and adversity-filled setbacks as a prospect.

As Pham told SI at the time: “They said, “We believed you could do it all along. I said, ‘If that was the F-ing case, then why was I demoted to Triple A? can’t entirely say they were on my side.”

President of baseball operations John Mozeliak claimed to be unmoved and unbothered by Pham’s assertions.

“I was not overly offended by what he said,” Mozeliak said in April of 2018. “I wouldn’t have said the F-word as much as he used it. But, in all seriousness, I think Tommy is being Tommy. My takeaway from that, at least I hope his takeaway in the end, is, people did believe in him. Because if they didn’t, he would’ve been released. We’ve all been around this game long enough, we know how it works. There were enough people that did believe in him that wanted to stick by him. So, in the end, I’m grateful that we did. That was exactly my message to him.”

That sounds nice and all, but Mozeliak traded Pham out of the organization a few months later. Pham was having a brutal season with batted-ball luck in 2018. And yes, that’s a real thing. Despite a preposterously high hard-contact rate –50 percent! – Pham batted .248 with a .399 slugging percentage for St. Louis before the trade. Based on quality of contact, Pham had an expected batting average of .283 and an expected slug of .498. No matter. The Rays were smart enough to see Pham’s underlying metrics and made an astute trade. Pham was sent to the Rays for a bust outfielder (Justin Williams) and the volatile reliever Genesis Cabrera. Matheny was fired before the Cardinals traded Pham that summer.

Pham’s personality can definitely rankle sensitive people who prefer silence, happy talk, or buddy-buddy arrangements in which players protect each other’s backs instead of speaking the truth.

Pham played his ass off for the Cardinals. He still plays that way, even for the dreadful White Sox this season. But Pham’s his intensity wasn’t for everybody – especially when he’s present in a soft clubhouse that lacks accountability. That’s probably why he had so many short shifts with several teams. (I can’t blame him for punching Joc Pederson in a dispute over a fantasy football league. They were playing for opposite teams at the time. So it’s not like Pham physically went after a teammate. And, hey, wouldn’t you want to take a swing at Pederson? I’m kidding. Maybe not.)

I respect Mozeliak for wanting Pham to come back. According to the Post-Dispatch, Pham lobbied the Cardinals for a job this year in spring training. The Cardinals took a pass, but finally said yes, and pursued him as part of the deal that added starting pitcher Erick Fedde. I’ll be honest here; I didn’t think Mozeliak would make a bid for Pham’s services. But it was the right move, the smart move, and a necessary move.

You may not remember this, but Pham enlivened a dormant offense back in 2015 in his first real run of playing time with the Cardinals. In 52 games starting on July 3, Pham batted .268 with a .347 onbase percentage and .477 slug and posted a wRC+ that was 27 percent above league average offensively. He also stepped up to smash a pinch-hit homer off Jon Lester to help lead the Cardinals to a Game 1 victory over the Cubs in the 2015 NLDS. Money.

I also respect Marmol for understanding Pham and what makes Tommy click. Marmol isn’t afraid to build a relationship with Pham and will welcome Pham’s views on baseball. Marmol is a little different than some managers; he likes to be challenged and can handle dissent. He truly does have an “open door” policy. Pham is a highly intelligent man who was way ahead of the curve in tapping into advanced metrics as a way to study his profile, discover what he could do better, and make the necessary changes. His self-scouting is done at a higher level, and it’s one of the reasons why Pham has always had a high walk rate and the ability to get on base at a good percentage. And his career strikeout rate, 23 percent, is more than acceptable for this era of baseball.

Call me stupid – or whatever you want to call me – but after watching the Cardinals sleepwalk through a disgusting, no-show loss at Pittsburgh last Wednesday. The boys were embarrassed by mediocre lefty Martin Perez, and took some of the sorriest at-bats you’ll ever see by a professional team. I know it was at the end of a road trip and they wanted to get home — but this was ridiculious.

There’s still a part of this team that I don’t trust; I’ve seen their hitters mail it in too many times. Urgency ain’t optional. Tommy Pham knows this. He won’t succumb to any possible temptation to turn complacent. And that’s good for a team that doesn’t seem to fully understand that you have to go at it hard, even when the schedule is tough and you’re worn down. Other teams get tired too. The Cardinals will need to fight like hell to make the playoffs, and there’s no time for taking shifting into neutral to take little mental breaks. This team has been too flat over the last two-plus weeks, going 14-14 and losing some of their fire. It’s time to play ball.

Pham, of course, brings a right-handed swing to the proceedings. A right-handed swing with a history of punishing left-handed pitching. And the Cardinals need that. They need that desperately. St. Louis ranks 29th among the 30 MLB teams this season in offensive performance vs. lefties.

Here’s what Pham brings to the competition against left-handed pitchers:

This season: .255 average, .377 onbase percentage, .471 slug, a 14.8 percent walk rate and a wRC+ that’s 41 percent above league average offensively. Forget about the small-sample nonsense; Pham has done this throughout his career.

Pham vs. lefties since 2015: .271 average, .381 OBP, .453 slug, 14.8 percent walk rate, and a wRC+ that’s 30 percent above league average offensively. Pham’s 2024 walk rate vs. lefties is exactly the same as his career walk rate against them. That’s Pham.

And it’s not as if Pham is feeble against right-handed throwers. He doesn’t have a high slugging percentage against them this season. But that can be attributed to having unfortunate luck on balls in play. He has a 40% hard-hit rate at age 36. That gives him an expected batting average of .284 and an expected .433 slug against all pitching, For his career, Pham has a slash line of .256/.338/.423 vs. righties and a wRC+ that’s 10 percent higher than the league average.

The Cardinals have a more capable offense with Pham back on board. He should start every game against left-handed starting pitchers, and Marmol can certainly put him to work against RHP. Pham’s defense is a problem; in terms of defensive runs saved he’s a minus 2 in left field, a minus 7 in center, and a minus 4 in right field. But if the Cardinals stick him in left field – perhaps as part of a platoon – Pham can play respectable defense.

The Arizona Diamondbacks added Pham at the trading deadline last season, and rushed all the way to the World Series. Pham was an impact bat in October, batting .279 with a .475 slug during the postseason. He has three doubles, three homers, scored 10 runs and drove in four. And Pham hit .421 in the World Series loss to Texas. Teams that have a chance to win like to bring in Pham. He’s fearless. And that’s a welcome attribute in pressurized situations. The Cardinals know him well. And that’s why it made sense to bring Pham back to the family. It was Tommy time again.

Please pardon my typos …

And thanks as always for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: Welcome Home, Tommy Pham. The Cardinals Need You. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

Here’s my sort of, but not really “Instant Reaction” to the Cardinals’ move to barter Tommy Edman in a three-team trade that brought them right-handed starting pitcher Erick Fedde and outfielder Tommy Pham — stream of consciousness style. Some of the good stuff is located in the bottom half of the column, so please read on. And I’ll write about Pham in a separate piece. Thank you.

1. Nice work by president of baseball ops John Mozeliak and the front-office crew. Fedde, 31, is a good starter who should provide more stability and protection for a rotation that’s been sliding in recent weeks. This should help them reach the playoffs, but I’m not sure it makes them a more menacing team should they get into the postseason tournament. I’m up on the trade … but some reality has to be mixed into the cheerleading. It was a good trade. But it will take a while to assess the real impact, at least for 2024. Oh, and the Cardinals need to add a reliever that can handle high-leverage assignments. And if the front office doesn’t get that done, the Cardinals will be more vulnerable in these low-scoring, tight-margin games. Again, I like this trade. (Pham is a bonus.) But it’s probably a good idea for the front office to resist the idea of taking a victory lap. The Cardinals needed three additions: starter, reliever, right-handed bat. They’ve gone 2 for 3 on that check list. And they need to go 3 for 3.

2. This was a pragmatic trade – the kind that Mozeliak and chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. strongly prefer. Edman was a respected but expendable position player who is coming off an injury, has a history of getting banged up, and is eligible for free agency after the 2025 season. The Cardinals would have paid Edman $9.4 million (guaranteed) next season. Instead they’ll pay Fedde what he’s owed for the remainder of this season ($2.5 million) plus his $7.5 million salary in 2025.

3. This was more of a Jordan Montgomery-type trade than a Jon Lester-type trade. Fedde has a year beyond the current season left on his contract – just as Monty did when he came over from the Yankees in 2022 – and isn’t a rental. When Mozeliak made the trades for starters Lester and J.A. Happ in 2021, both were short-term rentals brought in to handle an emergency. Jose Quintana (2022 trade) was also a rental. But knowing that they would have Fedde at least through 2025 added appeal to the deal.

4. I’ll get deeper into Fedde’s 2024 pitching profile later, but here’s what he does best: ground balls, lots of soft-medium contact, keeps the ball in the yard, and averages a healthy 5.8 innings per start.

5. If we take Fedde’s statistics with the White Sox this season and drop them into the St. Louis rotation to compare him to what the Cardinals already have, here’s what we find …

– Fedde would rank first in ERA (3.11)
– First in strikeout rate (21.5)
– Second in fielding independent ERA (3.76)
– Second in fWAR (2.7) to Sonny Gray
– Second in innings to Miles Mikolas
– Second in quality starts (10) to Mikolas
– Third in walk rate (6.8%)

6. It’s important to understand what to expect from Fedde. So we’ll note what he isn’t: a dominating, strikeout puncher with heavy swing-and-miss nastiness. As I mentioned, his current 21.5 percent strikeout rate would be the best among St. Louis starters, but it’s slightly below the overall MLB rate for starters. But he doesn’t walk many guys, and allows 1.04 homers per nine innings – which is better than the MLB average.

7. Here’s a realistic assessment from the highly respected Eno Sarris, who can explain a pitcher’s strengths and weaknesses better than anyone in the baseball-analysis media business:

“Fedde may be a great help getting the Cardinals to the postseason, but he might also have a lot more in common with current back-end Cardinals starters than fans in St. Louis would like to hear,” wrote Sarris, who writes for The Athletic.

8. Sarris adds that Fedde’s fastball is still below average but he’s made it better with more “cut” and velocity. And he’s enhanced the sinking action on his two-seamer. His changeup is a more effective pitch now.

9. More than anything, Fedde came home from the KBO (Korean League) with a devilish sweeper pitch that’s done wonders for his overall performance. Here’s what you should know about the sweeper: Fedde hardly ever uses it against left-handed hitters, so the stats are irrelevant. But it’s become a real asset when he throws it (often) in matchups against right-handed batters. This season RH hitters are batting .151 with a .256 slugging percentage against Fedde’s sweeper. Not only that, but his sweeper gets a 29% whiff-swing rate against right-handed hitters and limited them to a low 20.3 percent hard-hit rate.

10. OK, so how does Fedde counter the platoon-split advantage presented by of left-handed batters? Answer: changeup and sinker.

11. Fedde’s cut fastball has a positive run value, but seems vulnerable to me. At least if we’re going by the numbers. This season RH batters have hit .293 with a .463 slug against it. LH batters have a .247 average and .454 slug. And left-side swingers have popped Fedde’s cutter for five homers and five doubles. He throws the cutter a lot. Will that change with his new team?

12. Fedde doesn’t get hitters to chase many pitchers – except for the sweeper. And when Fedde entices opponents to lunge at the high-movement sweeper out of the strike zone, here’s what they’ve done: 5 for 39, a .128 average, .205 slugging percentage, 38 percent strikeout rate, and 45.3% whiff-swing rate. When right-handed batters chase the Fedde sweeper out of the zone they’ve hit .108 with a 37.5% strikeout rate and 47.2% whiff-swing rate.

13. Fedde will love pitching in front of Cardinals shortstop Masyn Winn. This season White Sox shortstops were a horrendous minus 14 below average in defensive runs saved. Winn leads all MLB shortstops with +12 defensive runs saved. That’s a difference of 26 runs saved! Fedde has a ground-ball rate of 45 percent. That should get him a lot of double-play grounder possibilities and he’s coming to the right place. The Cardinals rank second in the majors with 106 double plays turned and finished. The White Sox are 26th with only 65 double-play grounders turned and completed. Big, big change for Fedde.

14. Come to think of it, Fedde will enjoy the overall quality and security provided by the St. Louis defense. The White Sox are unspeakably bad on defense, ranking at the bottom of the majors with a minus 54 defensive runs saved below average. And what about center field? Michael Siani ranks second in the majors with 13 outs above average when patrolling CF. White Sox center fielder Luis Robert is tied for 25th at the position with two outs above average. When Fedde got traded – he also traded up defensively.

15. Oh, and of course, it’s got to be uplifting for Fedde to leave the worst team in the majors, the 27-81 White Sox, and join a Cardinals team that’s at least average (54-51) and in contention for a postseason spot.

16. OK, I’m assuming Andre Pallante will come out of the rotation to make room for Fedde. Which is interesting to me. I wrote about this recently … here are the starting-pitching ERAs since Pallante joined the rotation on May 29:

• Pallante 3.42
• Mikolas 4.41
• Gibson, 4.47
• Gray, 4.83
• Lynn, 5.11

The Cardinals are better off because they’ll have Fedde, and that should make them stronger if (when) some of their older starters wear down. (Is it already happening?) And certainly this move cushions the depth should the Cardinals get socked by a rotation injury or two. They’ll have more options, including Pallante. And by adding Fedde, the Redbirds don’t have to count on Injured List frequent flyer Steve Matz for rotation assistance. But are the Cardinals really a better team by removing the dude was the best ERA from their rotation if he’s better than some of the other starters that have not pitched as well? How does that give you an edge? Fedde is a positive addition … but the impact will be lessened if the Cardinals keep using the starters that have been on a downturn. Know what I mean? Are they really going to keep Pallante in the bullpen if he’s better than the guys that have shown signs of deterioration? Just asking. I don’t mean to interfere with the pep-squad cheering, but that’s my concern.

17. Another positive aspect of Fedde’s pitching is his effectiveness against hitters on both sides of the plate. Yes, he’s stronger against RH batters but the differences aren’t glaring.

* Against RH batters: .230 average, .273 OBP, .342 slug, 23.1 percent strikeout rate, 0.8 home runs per nine innings, 3.03 ERA.

* Against LH batters: .225 average, .289 OBP, .396 slug, 20.1% strikeout rate, 1.3 homers per nine innings, 3.18 ERA.

I probably missed something, but I’ll put a lid on this first look at Fedde and move onto the next column. Next up, a quick analysis on the STL homecoming of Tommy Pham. I’m getting to work on that in a few minutes.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: The Cardinals Add Quality And Depth To Their Starting Rotation, But How Much Does It Move The Needle? appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

The Cardinals blew a 2-0 lead and needed a walk-off home run by Paul Goldschmidt to save the afternoon, but the Cardinals wriggled out of a potential sweep by the Nationals with a 4-3 victory on Sunday afternoon. It was a satisfactory response to losing the first two games of the series in dreadful fashion. The Redbirds still lost the series, so hold your confetti … but losing two of three games is preferable to losing all three.

That said, where is this team right now?

Factually? The Cardinals are still 6.0 games behind the first-place Brewers in the NL Central. But the second-place Cards have lost time, letting two weeks elapse without gaining ground. Even though Milwaukee is 7-7 in the last 14 games, the Cardinals failed to take advantage by swerving to a 6-9 mark in their last 15 contests. And they slipped in the division standings, going from 4 and ½ games out of first to six games back. The Cardinals are down to 57 games remaining on their schedule. They simply cannot afford to squander the opportunities that materialize over two-week blocks of time. As of Monday morning St. Louis has an 11.8 percent crack of winning the NL Central according to the Playoff Odds at FanGraphs.

The wild-card competition is jammed. At least for now, the Cardinals have drifted out of the top three available wild-card spots. They go into the new week trailing the No. 3 Mets by 1 and ½ games and are one game behind the next contender in line (Diamondbacks.) Unlike the division, this isn’t about St. Louis having to catch up to the first-place team. In this bumper-car game, the Cardinals have wild-card competitors pressuring them on all sides.

The FanGraphs Playoff Odds for clinching a wild card slot is reflected in this list of current probabilities:

Braves, 73.2%
Padres, 55.6%
D-backs, 46%
Mets, 43.8%
Giants, 20%
Cardinals, 17.7%
Pirates, 8.8%

The Cardinals are spinning their wheels with a 14-14 record since June 26. That stretch includes a 3-6 record in their last nine games at Busch Stadium.

After leveling out for a time, the team’s run differential has turned ugly again. The Cardinals have been outscored by 18 runs in their 14-14 stretch – and have a minus 17 run differential in their last nine home games.

So …

What should the front office do?

Thoughts, opinions, et cetera …

1. Is this team worthy of a major roster transfusion? That would mean trading elite prospects and young veterans to acquire the talent that could transform the Cardinals into a team that has a realistic chance for postseason success? Trading for one impact guy wouldn’t put the Cardinals in the same tier as the top teams in the National League. There would have to be multiple moves – bold moves – and even then I’m not sure where that would put the Cardinals in the overall hierarchy. The Cardinals need at least three difference-making pieces to go from being an average team to a very good one. In no particular order: starting pitcher, high-leverage reliever, right-handed bat.

2. To make something like that happen – and we’re talking hypotheticals here – is John Mozeliak willing to pay the going price? I’m talking about top pitching prospects Tink Hence and Quinn Mathews. And/or giving up on Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman? Given how this ownership–management regime traditionally operates, that’s highly unlikely. That leaves us with the obvious question: among the players/prospects the Cardinals are willing to trade, how could they procure multiple, high-impact additions?

3. Such an answer does not include Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Dylan Carlson or Ryan Helsley. Let’s take them one at a time, and also include another name that’s zoomed into prominence in the trade speculation: Tommy Edman.

– If the Cardinals are determined to just make it to the 2024 postseason, Goldy is staying. But … but … but … he’s having a bad year! Yeah, we know. But don’t you think the other 29 teams know that as well? He’s just about 37. He’s having his career-worst season. He’s a free agent after this season. For all of you “Get Something For Goldy!” folks out there – what in the heck do you expect in a trade return that would make the Cardinals a better team minus Goldy? He’s a highly respected leader on the team, still an important part of the team, and the Cardinals aren’t going to give him away. And he also has a no-trade clause. Have you seen the trade-market exchange rate for relievers? Starting pitchers? Bats? The prices are soaring. Again, the Cardinals won’t be trading Goldschmidt … but even if they were willing, and if he agreed, the return would be minimal.

– Arenado? He’s 33 going on 36, has a career-worst slugging percentage, ranks 88th in the majors with 14 home runs, and his OPS+ is below league average offensively. Starting next season, Arenado is owed $52 million guaranteed through 2027. Are you aware of any insane, totally cuckoo general manager out there who wants to inherit that combination of declining hitter + big contract?

– Dylan Carlson? Only if an opportunistic GM knows that the Cardinals are poor at evaluating outfielders and would try to buy Carlson low as a lottery ticket. A no-risk gamble. Which also means not giving the Cardinals anything than a case of sunflower seeds and a middling prospect.

– Helsley? He can’t become a free agent until 2026 and would attract a nice trade package. But if the Cardinals are determined to return to the postseason in 2024, it’s mandatory to have Helsley closing out games. There’s no way they move him.

– Edman? According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Dodgers and Yankees have interest in Edman and his super-utility attributes. But he’s coming off wrist surgery and a sprained ankle, hasn’t played in the majors this season, comes with at least some risk, and is in line to make $9.4 million guaranteed in 2025. Sure, the Cardinals should listen to offers for Edman. I don’t think they’d sell at a sharply discounted price. So what would Edman command in a trade? We don’t know. But the club’s willingness to trade Edman comes down to the quality of the offer. If healthy Edman can help the Cardinals – but isn’t as valuable as before. That’s because of the emergence of shortstop Masyn Winn, the ability of Brendan Donovan to play multiple positions, and the elite defensive skill of center fielder Michael Siani. The switch-hitting Edman gets banged around a lot, is a below-average hitter vs. right-handed pitching, and wasn’t (in 2023) as successful against lefty pitchers as we’ve seen in the past. He makes sense as a trade piece.

– Trade Jordan Walker? The Cardinals are scared of doing this for a few reasons. One, he had 16 homers, a .342 onbase percentage and a .445 slug in 117 games during his 2023 rookie campaign. The talent is there. Two, even though Walker’s offense went to pieces this season and led to his demotion to Triple A Memphis, he’s still only 22 years old. Three, if the Cardinals had an urge to trade Walker, his value would be low relative to how he was viewed within the game last year. And what is the point of selling low? Finally: the Cardinals have traded or discarded the wrong outfielder so many times, it must be terrifying for Mozeliak to think of dealing Walker and watching him turn into a dynamic, long-term All-Star elsewhere.

– Gorman? Yes, it’s tempting to think about trading him. Since the beginning of August 2023, 158 major-league hitters have made at least 450 plate appearances. And among the 158, Gorman ranks 157th in strikeout rate (37.7%), 154th in batting average (.207), 142nd in onbase percentage (.142), and 97th in slugging (.416.) His 24 homers over that time are tied for 42nd. Though the strikeout epidemic is still a problem, Gorman has made some progress this month, batting .279 with a .508 slug. Even in a down season (to date), he has 19 home runs and is slugging .440 vs. right-handed pitchers. Gorman turned 24 on May 10. No one in the St. Louis organization has his power. If the Cardinals trade Gorman to a team that has a more hitter-friendly home ballpark, it’s hardly a stretch of the imagination to see him go bonkers and put up massive power numbers for his new team. If that happened, the Cardinals would never hear the end of it.

– I would listen to any offers that come along for Matthew Liberatore. The Cardinals have no idea what they’re doing with him, and they’re deflating his trade value. I wouldn’t sell low … but the Cardinals could actually lower his value because of hiw they use him. It depends on the offer, but Libby is not an off-limits talent.

– In some areas of the interwebs, I see the lunatic-fringe element of the fan base urging the Cardinals to trade Willson Contreras. Hey, let’s get crazy. This team has a mediocre (at best) offense. In terms of offensive production, Goldy is down, Arenado is down, Gorman is down, Nootbaar is down, Walker isn’t around, Alec Burleson and Brendan Donovan may be cooling down, and there’s no help from Carlson. So yeah, by all means, trade Contreras. What a fantastic idea! A team that’s trying to make the playoffs should move their best hitter who is punishing pitchers at a rate of 55 percent above league average offensively this season per OPS+. No one on this team is close to matching that. He’s also a fiery competitor, has improved his catching fundamentals behind the plate, and has emerged as a leader and a fan favorite. Now, I could see STL trading a catcher. The Cardinals have a surplus in their system. With Pedro Pages emerging as the clear No. 2, Ivan Herrera should be available.

What do I expect? The Cardinals will make a move or two that won’t undermine their team outlook for 2025, 2026, etc. (Especially on the pitching front.) These moves will strengthen their postseason bid at a time when other NL contenders have gotten the jump on the Cardinals by already adding added pieces for the playoff push.

I don’t see the Cardinals as an “all in” team at this deadline. They’ll make a pragmatic move (or two) that helps the team right now – but without harming the future in a significant way. Historically, they prefer to add pitchers/players that can be with them for longer than a two-month rental. This is how the Cardinals prefer to do business.

Hey, this just in …

As I finish this column, the indefatigable Ken Rosenthal posted this on X about 20 minutes ago: “A three-team trade in which the Cardinals would acquire (starting pitcher) Erick Fedde, the Dodgers would acquire Tommy Edman and the White Sox would acquire prospects is close.” Evidently, Tommy Pham would be part of the deal. (I like that!)

I’ll be back to write about this, separately, if the deal becomes official … which seems inevitable. Fedde would be a good addition because he’s a solid, cost-controlled starter that’s under contract through 2025. Pham’s right-handed swing still has some voltage against left-handed pitching

More later.

Thanks for reading …

-Bernie

– A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: Expect The Cardinals To Take A Pragmatic Approach To The MLB Trade Deadline. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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WEEKEND AT BERNIE’S

Warning: I’m in a salty mood.

What a gross 10-8 loss by the Cardinals to the Nationals on Friday night. The Cardinals scored eight runs but were terrible in too many other ways. They gave away a game for a variety of reasons:

There was a defective performance by No. 1 starter Sonny Gray.

There was a pitching staff that walked a season-high eight batters, with five of the eight that received free passes came around to score.

There were lost opportunities. Despite having leads of 5-2 and 6-3, the Cardinals couldn’t put away a Washington side that was no-hit by San Diego’s Dylan Cease around 30 hours earlier.

The eight runs should have been enough to fund a victory, but the St. Louis bats went silent for four consecutive innings to give the Nationals an opportunity for a successful comeback.

And just when you thought Dylan Carlson couldn’t get any worse, the former No. 1 prospect proved otherwise. What’s up with this gentleman?

This stinky loss left the Cardinals with a 5-8 record in their last 13 games. The home team is failing to protect the diamond at Busch Stadium, having lost seven of the last 11 games to visiting teams.

This is the wrong time of the season to relinquish leads, concede the home-field advantage, get let down by the presumptive rotation ace, and gift-bag complimentary runs to opponents because of knuckle-headed outfield defense.

After a 33-18 fun run over a 51-game stretch, the Cardinals have the second-worst record in the National League since July 8. The cooldown has led to a 10-10 record in July and caused them to slip in the wild card standings.

Going into Saturday’s match against the Nationals, the Redbirds trail the Mets, Braves, Padres and Diamondbacks in the safari for the three available wild-card prizes.

It’s still close. The pack is crowded and tight. But the Cardinals are now 1 and ½ games out of the No. 3 wild card claim. And if his team continues to lose the way they’ve been losing, the deficit will increase. And that means trouble.

The Cardinals have three games to go before Tuesday’s late-afternoon trade deadline. Will the Redbirds motivate the front office to step up and make moves? Or will the players give the front office a reason to stand down?

Let’s dig in.

Growl!

SONNY GRAY MUST PITCH BETTER. PERIOD. END OF STORY. Cardinal hitters had Gray’s back Friday after the Nationals went up 2-0 in the second. Gray’s teammates struck back to grab leads of 5-2 through three innings, and 6-3 through four innings. But Gray capitulated in the fifth, giving up two runs to cut STL’s lead to 6-5. A No. 1 starter can’t do this type of thing, and we’ve seen too much of it lately.

Gray – the organization’s top free-agent signee last winter – had an 0.89 ERA after his first four starts as a Cardinal. It was exciting to watch him do his thing. Of course, the microscopic 0.89 ERA was unsustainable. Gray would level off over time; that’s how baseball works.

Sure enough, after his first four outings of the season, Gray has pitched to a 4.87 ERA in his last 14 starts. And the problem is getting worse. It’s been a bumpy, jarring ride for Gray since June 29.

The details: Five starts, 6.67 ERA. Opponents have batted .331 against him with a .360 onbase and .568 slugging percentage. The punishment includes two triples, nine doubles and five homers. And left-handed batters have blasted Gray for a .345 average, .397 OBP and .603 slug. And nine of their 20 hits against Gray have gone for extra bases. Yelp.

Gray had a robust strikeout rate (27.7%) in the five starts. And a .425 average against him in batted balls in play is an indicator of some bad luck. That said, all of Gray’s pitches except the curveball have been hit hard, and that makes the “bad luck” narrative less credible.

Here’s a look at opponents’ pitch-type performances against Gray during his last five starts:

— Four-seam fastball: .333 average, .467 slug, 47.4 percent hard-hit rate and a 53.3 barrel-rate percentage. That isn’t bad luck. That’s extremely hittable pitching.

— Sweeper: .323 average, .452 slug. Those numbers aside, this is still a nasty pitch for Gray. In the last five starts, on plate appearances that conclude with Gray throwing a sweeper, Gray has struck out 16 of 31 hitters for a strikeout rate of 51.6 percent. And he definitely has endured some lousy luck with this pitch over the last five starts, with opponents hitting .643 with balls in play. That assessment is supported by a reasonable 26.7% hard-hit rate on the pitch over the last five outings.

— Sinking fastball: .346 average, .654 slug, a high 39 percent hard-hit rate, a high 11.1% barrel rate – plus two homers and two doubles.

— Cutter: .438 average, .688 slug, 53.3% hard-hit rate. Pardon my deplorable grammar, but this pitch ain’t been working.

— Changeup: .333 average, .778 slug, 62.5% hard-hit rate, 12.5% barrel rate.

Left-handed hitters have teed off on Gray over his last five starts, slashing .345/.397/.603. Their blitz includes five doubles, two triples, two homers, a 42.5% hard-hit rate and 10% barrel rate.

DYLAN CARLSON: Can the Cardinals attach a GPS to his ballcap? It’s reached the point where all we can do is shake our heads, mutter a few unpleasantries, and wonder what the heck happened to the guy who made such a positive early impression in a career that began with his promotion to the big club late in the 2020 season. Carlson built on that initial showing with a good 2021 that included a .505 slugging percentage after the All-Star break. There were legitimate reasons to have high expectations for Carlson; he had talent, poise and a wonderful future. Or so we believed. The talent has faded, the poise is gone, and the future is annulled.

Carlson was horrendous in Friday’s loss, and we can add this to the file of failures that puts Carlson high on the list of the most disappointing Cardinals since Bill DeWitt Jr. purchased the franchise before the 1996 season.

At the plate, Carlson went 0 for 4 with three strikeouts. He had two horrible misplays in right field that cost the Cardinals five runs. One was a two-run double in the second. The final flop was a three-run triple in the 10th inning that put Washington ahead 9-6. In both instances Carlson misread the flight of the ball, and took bewildering, off-course steps that made it impossible for him to make a play or limit the damage caused by his misjudgments.

Carlson, 25, is batting .200 for the season, is slugging an anemic .242, hasn’t homered in his 137 plate appearances in 2024, and has whiffed his way to a 27 percent strikeout rate. That strikeout rate has escalated to 39 percent in July.

In all, Carlson’s 49 OPS+ makes him 51 percent below league average offensively. Defensively he ranks among the bottom 10 percent of MLB outfielders in range. He’s a minus 5 in outs above average and a minus four in defensive runs saved.

Once upon a time, the switch-hitting Carlson had significant trade value, but the Cardinals didn’t want to move him. These days, the only trade value Carlson has is for a team with a front office that knows the Cardinals are incredibly, comically inept at evaluating outfielders. Some opportunistic GM might take a flier on Carlson, wagering on the “fresh start” angle and having confidence in the coaches and instructors to revive Carlson’s career.

3. JUAN YEPEZ. FORMER CARDINAL. HERE WE GO AGAIN: When the Cardinals were swept out of the 2022 wild-card series in two straight wins by the Phillies, the boisterous rookie Yepez produced the one big moment: a pinch-hit, two-run homer that gave the Cardinals a 2-0 lead in the bottom of the seventh.

The Redbirds yakked that game up, losing 6-3, and were eliminated a day later. But you can’t blame Yepez. In the two losses to Philly, Yepez went 2 for 5 and drove in two of the only three runs scored by St. Louis in three innings. Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt went a combined 1 for 15 in the series.

Yepez was a shaky corner-outfield defender. And while the precocious Yepez was a little immature here, he’s a good guy. He lost favor with the people who make baseball decisions for the Cardinals. St. Louis non-tendered Yepez after the 2023 season, making him a free agent.

The rebuilding Nationals took a chance on him. And Why not? Yepez can hit. Yepez spent most of this season at Triple A, but he’s batted .375 with nine doubles, two homers, 10 RBI and a 1.032 since being promoted on July 5.

Friday night, Yepez had three hits and two RBIs in Washington’s 10-6 victory. Since coming up he’s had at least one hit in 16 of his 17 games. Nats manager Dave Martinez has stationed Yepez at first base.

“He’s been awesome since he’s been called up,” Martinez told reporters after Friday’s game. “He’s doing his job. He’s not trying to do too much. He’s hitting the ball everywhere, driving in big runs for us. He’s playing really well.”

The weirdness continues. A lot has changed in a year.

Would-be Cardinals phenom outfielder Jordan Walker — the can’t miss prospect — was demoted to minors. Yepez is back in the majors after being dumped by the Cardinals, and he comes back to St. Louis to help shove the Cardinals to another sorry loss.

GOLDSCHMIDT & ARENADO: Congrats to Goldy on notching career hit No. 2,000 Friday on a two-run homer in the 10th that closed the scoring in the home team’s 10-8 loss. In his last five games, Goldschmidt is 6 for 20 (.300) with two doubles and two home runs. Arenado hit a three-run homer in the bottom of the third to lift the Cards to a 5-2 lead. Arenado has three homers in his last seven games, and is 3 for 10 with two homers and four RBIs in his last three contests.

BATS TURN QUIET: After taking a 6-3 lead in the bottom of the fifth, the Cardinals had two hits in their next 20 at-bats until Goldschmidt pounded his 15th homer of the season with two out in the 10th.

MICHAEL SIANI: He had a good game Friday with a single, walk and run scored. Since June 12 the Cards starting center fielder is batting .298 with a .330 OBP and .405 slug for a solid .734 OPS. For the season he’s hitting .273 against right-handed pitchers, and that includes a .302 average since June 18.

MASYN WINN: After a downturn earlier in July, Winn has perked for a .296 average and .477 slug in his last 10 games. He has a triple, two homers, six RBIs and seven runs scored during this stretch. Winn had two hits and three RBIs in a lost cause Friday; the performance was topped by a two-run homer that tied the game (2-2) in the third. Winn has done a better job of producing and getting onbase as the leadoff man; since July 13 he’s hit .295 with a .326 OBP and .803 OPS from the top spot.

That said, Winn has a poor .295 onbase percentage overall in 217 plate appearances as the STL leadoff man. Among MLB hitters that have at least 200 PA in the leadoff spot this season, Winn’s .295 OBP ranks 25th on a list of 29. His 31 runs scored as a leadoff hitter is tied for 21st.

STARTING-PITCHING CHECK: St. Louis starters have combined for a 5.24 ERA in their 32 games since June 18, a fact that’s been oddly ignored by the locals. It’s been a rough month, with Cardinal starting pitchers posting a 5.52 ERA that ranks 27th in July. From the start of the regular season until the end of June, the Cardinals ranked 17th overall with a starting-pitching ERA of 4.18. Andre Pallante has a 3.42 ERA in nine starts since joining the rotation on May 29. The team’s other starting pitchers have a combined 4.75 ERA in their 41 since May 29.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.

The post appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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BIRD BYTES

Hello again on this pleasant Friday. How about some easy-reading Bird Bytes from Bernie?

1) The Cardinals can’t have another bad homestand. They’ll have the Nationals for three, followed by the Rangers for three, and then it’s onto Wrigley Field for four. Washington (24-29) and Texas (22-29) each have losing road records this season. The Cardinals can’t have another letdown. Urgency, men.

2) The NL wild-card race features some hot teams, and some cold teams. The Cardinals are in the latter group. Here’s a rundown of recent records by the wild-card wranglers:

• The Mets have the NL’s best record (14-7) in July and are 12-4 in the last 16.
• Padres: they’ve won five in a row.
• The Diamondbacks have won eight of their last 11 games and are 12-6 in the last 18.
• The Pirates have won eight of their last 10 games and are 9-3 in the last 12.
• The Braves have lost five straight games and are 8-11 in July.
• The Cardinals are 5-7 in the last 12 games and are 10-9 in July.

It’s time to giddyup, Cardinals.

Giddyup.

3) Pinch-hitting? No, more like no hitting. I didn’t realize this until I had a strangely curious moment and decided to look it up. Did you know that the Cardinals are 7 for 63 this season in pinch-hit at bats? And there’s a 30 percent strikeout rate to go with that .111 batting average. The team has only three pinch-hit RBIs this season. Extra-base hits? None.

4) As for individual pinch-hitters, the star of the class is Dylan Carlson with three hits in 11 at-bats for a .273 average. Nolan Gorman is 1 for 3. But then it gets ugly: Jose Fermin 1 for 15. Ivan Herrera and Brandon Crawford are combined 0 for 8. Alec Burleson and Matt Carpenter are a combined 2 for 17. And Carpenter has struck out in four of his eight pinch-hit ABs.

5) The St. Louis bench? Not good. Not good at all. I guess it could be worse; in the pandemic-shortened 2020, the Cardinals were 1 for 29 in pinch-hitting turns at the plate. But it’s incomprehensible to think that the St. Louis front office would reach the deadline without acquiring a hitter that can come off the bench and produce.

6) Matthew Liberatore could be a helluva reliever if the Cardinals would just leave him alone. The spot-starter thing needs to stop. The Cardinals continue to mishandle Liberatore’s career, and this lefty still struggles when facing right-handed batters. This season his one effective pitch against RH batters is a slider that’s limited right-side swingers to a .243 average and .324 slug. And it’s the one swing-miis pitch in his arsenal, with a 38.4% whiff rate vs. RH batters. But Liberatore doesn’t throw it enough.

7) This is a bad time for the Cardinals to be getting so little out of Liberatore. Lefty JoJo Romero doesn’t have the swing-miss nastiness and has struck out only two of his last 43 batters faced. Manager OIi Marmol has to cultivate Liberatore as his No. 1 or No. 2 lefty reliever, to partner with John King.

8) There’s some talk of the Cardinals pursuing Oakland strongman Brent Rooker, a right-handed bat who bullies lefty pitchers. This season Rooker has eight homers and a .671 slugging percentage in 70 at-bats vs. LHP. Overall he’s batting .289 with 24 homers, 70 RBIs and a .578 slug in 329 at-bats.

9) More stuff on Rooker: (a) he’ll enter the salary-arbitration cycle next season but can’t become a free agent until 2028; (b) he has a 31 percent strikeout rate but also has a 10.4% walk rate; (c) he struggled defensively and has started only 13 games in the corner outfield this season; (d) so you’re looking at an almost full-time DH; (e) for his career, Rooker is 4 for 23 (.174) with no extra-base hits and nine strikeouts as a pinch-hitter. There’s a lot of trade interest in Rookie because of his power, low salary this season, and team contract control for three more seasons after this one.

10) I like Dayn Perry’s idea of acquiring right-handed reliever Yimi Garcia from Toronto. Dude has a 36.5 percent strikeout rate. Only concern: Garcia dominated RH batters but has gotten cudgeled by LH batters. You should subscribe to Perry’s Birdy Work blog at Substack.

11) Erick Fedde, Nathan Eovaldi, Zach Eflin, Yusei Kikuchi, Tyler Anderson, Chris Bassitt … whatever. I don’t think the Cardinals will be in the bidding for starting pitchers who will cost them a lot in the trade exchange. The Redbirds will want to keep their best prospects. That’s how they roll. So I don’t have unrealistic expectations. They need starting-pitching depth. The rest is up to them.

12) Speaking of starting pitchers, does Tink Hence actually exist? And if so, do we think it’s possible we’ll see him this evergreen prospect up in here with the big club by, say, 2029? I’m exaggerating on purpose, but sometimes I feel like I’ve been writing about Hence since he was in the same rotation with historically overhyped Cardinals pitching prospect Manny Aybar in the minors. That was a long time ago. And of course, Hence wasn’t in the same rotation as Aybar. But Hence might have been down there in Memphis with P.J. Walters.

13) Because I am a nerd, I wanted to see how the Cardinals ranked in the majors offensively at every position. I’ll use wRC+ for a short hand; all you need to know is that 100 is the league average.

Catcher: No. 2 offensively with a 122 wRC+ that’s 22 percent above the league average. Shout-out to Willson Contreras. When in the lineup as a catcher this season, he has a slash line of .280/.410/.534 and his wRC+ is 68 percent above league average.

First Base: No. 17 offensively with a wRC+ that’s three percent below league average.

Second Base: No. 21 offensively with an 84 wRC+ that’s 16 percent below league average.

Third Base: No. 9 offensively with a 114 wRC+ that’s 14 percent above league average. Nolan Arenado is slightly above that league-average standard as a third baseman, but the Cardinals have gotten good production when using Brendan Donovan there.

Shortstop: No. 13 offensively with a 108 wRC+ that’s eight percent above the league average.

Left Field: No. 6 offensively with a 113 wRC+ that’s 13% above the league average. Four different players used in left – Donovan, Alec Burleson, Lars Nootbaar and Michael Siani – have posted above-average numbers offensively when assigned to left field.

Center Field: No. 30, the worst offensively at the position. The wRC+ by their center fielders is 45 percent below league average. Siani has taken over n center (for his defense) and is well below average as a hitter but he’s gradually improving. The only above-average used by the Cardinals in CF is Dylan Carlson – a 119 wRC+ – but his defense is a liability.

Right Field: No. 15 offensively, with a league-average 100 wRC+. Burleson and Nootbaar have combined for 300 plate appearances when deployed in right field, and both have been good offensively. Burleson is 35 percent above average, with Nootbaar 20% better than average.

Designated Hitter: No. 19 offensively with a wRC+ that’s one percent above the average. Contreras and Burleson have put up strong numbers at the DH spot, and Matt Carpenter is just a tick below average there.

Thanks for reading!

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Bird Bytes: Noteworthy Observations, Information, And Miscellaneous Nonsense. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

We can find the Cardinals are in the middle of the crowd at baseball’s summer Woodstock festival, otherwise known as the National League wild-card jam. I suppose we can call it a Lollapalooza.

But in today’s writing contest – me against the overmatched keyboard on my laptop – I want to focus on something else.

Question: how in the hell are the Milwaukee Brewers sitting six games above the second-place St. Louis Cardinals as the NL Central’s sovereign power?

Last offseason the Brewers lost celebrity manager Craig Counsell to the hated Cubs and traded rotation ace Corbin Burnes to the Orioles. Their starting-pitching hardship is extreme. They haven’t had elite closer Devin Williams all season because of stress fractures in his back; he’s on schedule to return next month.

So how have the Brewers done better than the Cardinals? Lots of reasons. So let’s get to it …

1. Head-to-head matchups. The Cards and the Crew have met on the diamond seven times this season. Brewers were 6-1 in these early-season games, taking advantage of a piffling, mucked-up St. Louis coterie. If we pretend that these early competitions were never played, rivals are virtually even-steven in games against other opponents: Brewers 51-42 (.548), Cardinals 52-43 (.547).

2. Milwaukee has one of the smartest, most resourceful baseball departments in MLB. And the franchise based in the smallest media market in the majors repeatedly outmaneuvers division challengers. The Brewers continue to outperform the Cardinals and Cubs despite having a substantial disadvantage in payroll spending. Here are the 40-man payroll costs of all three teams:

• Cubs, $233 million
• Cardinals, $211.6 million
• Brewers, $149.4 million

On top of that, the Brewers do a better job of scouting, drafting and developing their young players – international market included.

This season Milwaukee has a 14-6 record when playing STL or Chicago.

3. Milwaukee has a stronger offense than St. Louis, comfortably ranked higher than the Redbirds in runs per game, batting average, onbase percentage, OPS, steals, walk rate, etc. I’ll say a little more about some of these things as you read on…

4. Timely hitting: massive advantage, Milwaukee. The Brewers are hitting .274 with runners in scoring position which ranks fourth in the majors. The Cardinals are .230 with RISP, which ranks 26th. And this is really important: with runners in scoring position the Brewers have a slugging percentage (.459) that’s 122 points higher than STL’s (.337.) Sad.

5. The Brewers are much deeper than the Cardinals. And that’s mitigated the damage caused by injuries. Once again, I don’t know how a small-market team with the 20th-ranked payroll can overcome so many blows, but the Brewers are remarkably resilient here in 2024.

– Days missed by players: Milwaukee 1,093, St. Louis 917.

– Games missed by injured players: Milwaukee 935, St. Louis 790.

6. Starting pitching. Against the odds, the Brewers have a better starting-pitching ERA (4.16) than the Cardinals (4.40.) At one point this season the Brewers had four major-league starting pitchers on the IL at the same time. Here’s the number of days each pitcher has lost to injury so far: Brandon Woodruff 120, Wade Miley 98, DL Hall 96, Jakob Junis 79, Joe Ross 66, Robert Gasser 54.

With all of this chaos, the Brewers have utilized 16 different pitchers as starters; that total includes relievers who made eight “opener” starts. The Cardinals have used nine starters including Matthew Liberatore, who has shifted out of the bullpen to make several spot starts.

The instability is drastic. The Brewers have received the lowest number of innings from starting pitchers than any team in the majors. And they’re 28th in quality starts.

Despite all of that, Milwaukee has a better starting-pitching ERA than St. Louis. The Brewers rank 16th at 4.16, and the Cardinals are 22nd at 4.40.

7. The Brewers have more balance offensively. Compared to the Cardinals, the Brewers Crew have a higher OPS against both left-handed pitching and right-handed pitching. In particular, the Redbirds are especially weak vs. lefty pitching with a .623 OPS that ranks 29th. The Brewers have a .718 OPS against LHP, ranking 15th.

8. Milwaukee plays better defense than St. Louis. The Crew is fourth in the majors with 36 defensive runs saved; the Cardinals are No. 9 with 23 runs saved. In Outs Above Average at Statcast, the Brewers rank fourth and the Cardinals 19th.

9. The Brewers have dangerous speed that they put to use and it gives them an edge. They’re second in the majors with 138 stolen bases and rank first with an 84 percent success rate. The Cardinals are way down on the list in steals (60) and success rate (77%).

10. Walk this way: the Milwaukee offense creates more run-scoring opportunities than St. Louis for two reasons. The higher batting average, which I already mentioned. But the Brewers have more plate discipline and draw more walks than the Cardinals. The Brewers have the third-best walk rate in MLB; the Cardinals are 20th.

11. The Brewers are succeeding with an array of young position players. The Cardinals do pretty well in this area, but only if we count guys a few guys who are in their 20s but older than 24. The Brewers lead the majors in Wins Above Replacement by rookie position players, and are third in WAR among position players age 25 or younger.

12. Run prevention. Always, always important. Milwaukee has allowed 3.95 runs per game, the sixth-best average in the majors. The Cardinals have allowed 4.45 runs per game; that ranks 18th.

13. Manager Pat Murphy, 65, has exceeded all expectations as the successor to the departed Craig Counsell. The longtime Milwaukee bench coach moved up in rank after Counsell’s defection and has done a terrific job of guiding so many young players and a pitching staff that already has used 32 arms. Oli Marmol has done a good job for the Cardinals this season, and he doesn’t have the benefit of Milwaukee’s baseball operation. To this point Murphy’s work is worthy of Manager of the Year recognition. And Murphy will be tested by the absence of his best player, outfielder Christian Yelich, who will be on the IL for an extended time as he deals with another round of lower-back problems.

14. The Cardinals have an excellent bullpen. But Milwaukee’s bullpen is slightly better. It’s true. The Crew bullpen has outperformed the St. Louis bullpen in ERA, Save Percentage, and Win Probability Added. And they’ve done just about as well as the Cardinals in preserving late-inning leads.

15: All-around resilience. I watch the Brewers on streaming as much as I can, and this is a team that consistently digs in, fights hard, never seems to give an inch. Milwaukee has a winning record on the road, a winning record in one-run games, a winning record in extra-inning affairs. The Brewers have a better record than the Cardinals in games against winning teams, and games against losing teams. And check out this stat on comeback wins: Milwaukee 28, St. Louis 16.

FanGraphs gives the Cardinals a 12.6 percent shot of winning the division. But to make that longshot come through, the Cardinals will have to wrestle the division team away from a team that’s remarkably resourceful and mentally tough. And the St. Louis front-office can’t get outflanked by the Milwaukee front office during the countdown to the end of Tuesday’s trading deadline.

Thanks for reading … as always.

And have a splendid weekend…

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: Why Are The Brewers Better Than The Cardinals? Let Us Count The Reasons. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

After losing two of three games to the Pirates, the Cardinals migrated home with a 3-3 record on their trip to Atlanta and Pittsburgh. Won a series. Lost a series. And so it goes.

How good are the Cardinals? I think it depends on your personal perspective and how you feel about their hot streak, now that they’ve simmered down.

Are the Redbirds still the emergent team that whirred to a 33-18 record (.647) during an upbeat turn that began May 12? Or do the Cardinals more closely resemble the group that’s gone 5-7 in 12 games since July 10? Maybe it’s a little of both.

As a preliminary, let me say the Cardinals play good defense and run the bases pretty well — but could do it better. With that out of the way, here’s an updated inspection of the team’s three primary areas and how the state of the roster could influence front-office strategy before Tuesday afternoon’s MLB trading deadline …

THE BULLPEN: STILL STRONG, BUT SOME CONCERN. The team strength is a bullpen that’s sharpened the edge for a Cardinal advantage in tight, suspenseful duels that spin into the late innings. The ERA is outstanding, the save percentage is high, the ability to protect leads after the seventh and eighth innings is terrific. The bullpen value is reflected by its overall ranking (No. 3) in Win Probability Added.

But there could be trouble if the front office doesn’t augment the bullpen with a powerful addition before the trade deadline. Simply stated, there’s a need for more swing-and-miss authority and strikeouts.

My reason for the warning? Through June 9 of this season, the St. Louis bullpen ranked 12th in the majors with a 23.6 percent strikeout rate. But that’s been slipping.

We don’t see any panic-worthy signs in a bottom-line bullpen ERA of 3.39 that ranks fourth overall and second in the NL. But I like to look under the hood for stats that might tell us something … and in this case, some underlying factors are concerning.

Here’s what I’m referring to …

Since June 10, the STL bullpen has the lowest strikeout rate (18.4%) in the majors. The swing-miss voltage and strikeout-wipeout stuff has dropped. The increased contact means more batted balls and the risk of a higher batting average and slugging percentage by opponents. That hasn’t happened yet, but it’s something to monitor.

The team’s decrease in strikeouts isn’t surprising.

Here’s a look at a few key guys, and their strikeout rates before and after June 9 …

• JoJo Romero: 26.2% … 4.7%
• Ryan Fernandez: 26% … 21%
• Andrew Kittredge: 25.0% … 21.6%
• Chris Roycroft, 27.3% … 16.7%
• Giovanny Gallegos: 27% … 10.5%
• Matthew Liberatore: 20% … 13.6%

THE OFFENSE: STILL MEDIOCRE AND COULD GET WORSE. The St. Louis offense ranks 23rd in runs per game (.410), 20th in slugging (.388) and 22nd in home runs per contest. Timely hitting is still a negative, as the Cardinals rank 26th in batting average (.230) and 29th in slugging percentage (.337) and last in homers (17) when hitting with runners in scoring position.

Too many of the STL home runs are solo shots. There aren’t enough three-run homers. The reduced power displayed by Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado isn’t just a fluke or a phase or a little slump.

I’ve been writing about this for weeks, but let’s go back to it: the Cardinals are absolutely pathetic against left-handed pitching. Reasons? The Goldy-Arenado downturns, the frustrating inconsistency of Nolan Gorman, the unexpected second-year flop of Jordan Walker and a limited bench that has two below-average left-handed bats and insufficient right-handed clout.

Against LH pitching, the Cardinals are 29th in all of the relevant categories: batting average (.223), onbase rate (.288), slugging (.335), OPS (.623) and a wRC+ that’s 22 percent below league average offensively.

Left-handed starters have a 3.65 ERA when facing the Cardinals. Left-handed relievers have a 2.73 ERA in working against STL hitters. The Cards hit .204 with runners in scoring position vs. lefty starters and .200 RISP vs. lefty relievers. UGH.

Left-handed pitching cuts the St. Louis power line, with Cardinal hitters going an average of 50.3 at-bats between home runs against lefties.

Based on wRC+ the Cardinals as a team are seven percent above league average offensively when facing right-handed pitching. That’s good enough to rank 10th among the 30 teams, so there’s a positive. Left-swinging bats Alec Burleson, Brendan Donovan and Lars Nootbaar have performed well above average against RH pitchers, and Gorman has blasted righties for 15 homers and a .445 slug.

Here’s the disappointing thing: it’s logical to assume that the Cardinals’ right-handed hitters are winning their matchups against lefty throwers. But that isn’t true. The team’s RH bats are 10 percent below league average offensively (per wRC+) in confrontations against lefties. Their slash line is an abysmal .234/.308/.354. Only one right-handed swinging Cardinal, Willson Contreras, has dominated LHP this season.

And this is where we need to take a closer look at Goldschmidt and Arenado to identify their role in the team’s deflated offense against lefthanders.

+ Goldschmidt is around 20 percent above average against lefties this season, with a profile that includes a .404 slugging percentage. That looks OK but isn’t close to what he used to do. From 2012 through 2022, Goldy destroyed LH pitchers for a .619 slugging percentage, and his wRC+ was 78 percent above average. Over the last two seasons he’s 22% above the standard. A net positive, yes. But a steep drop from where he once stood in a matchup against lefties.

+ Arenado is struggling at 19 percent below league average vs. LHP this season. From 2013 through 2022, Arenado whomped lefties for a .602 slugging percentage and was 45 percent above league average against them per wRC+. But since the start of 2023, Arenado has slugged .387 vs. lefties and is 23 percent below league average when facing them.

The Pittsburgh series aside, the offense has generally improved in July. But please refrain from hyperventilating. If there’s a desire to improve the team’s splits against left-handed pitchers, I can’t imagine why the STL front office would choose to go forward with this same collection of talent.

STARTING PITCHING: SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. That’s how I would describe the St. Louis rotation. It’s clearly better than the bedraggled Cardinals rotation that was pancaked through the 2023 season. That said, we tend to overrate the quality of their performance in the 2024 context.

For the season the team’s starting-pitching ERA ranks 22nd (4.40) and is trending down. Over the last 32 games the STL starters have a 5.01 ERA, but at least they’re doing a solid job of starts that go 6+ innings, ranking tied for ninth in the majors in those “deeper” starts since June 17. And they’re tied for 10th with 13 quality starts over that time.

That’s why I went with the “middle” designation. The starting pitching isn’t bad, and it isn’t great. Their 2024 rotation ERA is below the league average, and the fielding-independent rotation ERA is right at average. But to be fair, this rotation is on the plus side among MLB teams for total innings (ranking 11th), quality starts (14th) and the volume of starts that last six innings or more (10th.)

The starting-pitching structure has definitely improved from 2023. But as currently constructed, this rotation is an unlikely team strength should the Cardinals make the playoffs. And considering the vulnerable depth, an injury or two could be devastating. None of their best starting-pitching pitching prospects are deemed ready for the show.

And I’m sorry, but I don’t want to hear anything about Steven Matz returning from the injured list. The Cardinals can’t count on him. Since signing a four-year, $44 million free-agent deal before the 2022 season, Matz has averaged 61 innings pitched per year. And he’s spent 245 days on the IL.

The front office is in a position to make the Cardinals stronger and better to prepare for a vigorous stretch run. But will they do a meaningful roster renovation or settle for slapping a coat of paint on it?

Let’s move on …

STANDINGS CHECK: Wednesday was not a good day for the Cardinals. Their no-show 5-0 loss at Pittsburgh, combined with Milwaukee winning at Wrigley Field, left the Cardinals 6.0 games behind the first-place Brewers in the NL Central. The Cardinals haven’t trailed the Brewers by a full six games since July 4. In addition …

* The Pirates (52-50) are a game behind the second-place Cardinals in the NL Central. The Bucs are dangerous because of their starting pitching and an improving bullpen. Pittsburgh is 10-3 in its last 13 games, with series victories over the Brewers, Phillies and Cardinals during the stretch.

* The Mets beat up on the Yankees again and have gone 11-4 in their last 15 games. New York has jumped ahead of the Cardinals – by a half-game – for the NL’s No. 2 wild-card ticket.

* The Padres and Cardinals are essentially tied for the No. 3 wild card, though technically the Cardinals are ahead because the winning percentage (.520) is a point higher than San Diego’s .519.

* As for the third wild card, the Diamondbacks are just a half-game behind the Cardinals and Padres. The Pirates are a game behind the Cardinals and Padres. Next in line are the Reds (49-53) who trail STL and San Diego by four games. The Giants are within range and trail the Cards-Padres by 4 and ½.

NL WILD-CARD PROBABILITIES: Let’s put the three division leaders (Phils, Dodgers, Brewers) aside and focus on the current FanGraphs odds for securing one of the three wild-card spots. Here they are, in order of probability, and I’ll limit the list to the top seven in the chase:

• Braves, 74.3%
• Mets, 49.1%
• Padres, 46.7%
• Diamondbacks, 41.2%
• Cardinals, 25%
• Pirates, 15.5%
• Giants, 14.4%

And finally, here are the respective strength of remaining schedules for the seven teams listed above. I’ll go from toughest to easiest, placed in order of remaining opponents’ winning percentage:

• Cardinals, .512 … 3rd in NL
• Pirates, .511 … 4th in NL
• D-backs, .510 … 5th in NL
• Braves, .496 … tied for 6th in NL
• Mets, .496 … tied for 6th in NL
• Padres, .484 … tied for 14th in NL
• Giants, .484 … tied for 14th in NL

Given all of that information, the work done by each team’s front office between now and the deadline will likely impact this crazy wild-card steeplechase and how it plays out. If remaining schedules matter, the Cardinals aren’t in a favorable spot. Obviously, that can change — a lot — for all wild-card hopefuls over the remaining weeks of the regular season.

ABOUT THE ST. LOUIS SCHEDULE: In theory, based on the quality of the upcoming opponents, the Cardinals have a chance to do pretty well over the next block of 19 games.

I’ll list each series and put the opponent’s overall winning-percentage ranking (in parenthesis) among the 30 MLB teams.

• 3 home vs. Nationals (24)
• 3 home vs. Rangers (19)
• 4 at Cubs (23)
• 1 home vs. Mets (11)
• 3 home vs. Rays (18)
• 2 at Royals (8)
• 3 at Reds (21)

For context, the Cardinals are four games above .500 and rank 13th overall in winning percentage. Over their next 19 games, the Redbirds will have only six contests against teams that are either at .500 (Tampa Bay) or above .500 (Mets, Royals.)

OK, so what about the next 19 games after that?

Buckle up, because the schedule brings a stack of games against the Dodgers (3), Brewers (3), Twins (3), Padres (4), Yankees (3) and Mariners (3).

From Aug. 16 through Sept. 8, the six St. Louis opponents all have winning records right now. And all six are in legitimate postseason contention.

If the playoffs began today, four of the six would be in the tournament. But the other two – San Diego and Seattle – are right there. As mentioned, the Cardinals and Padres are essentially tied for the third wild-card spot right now … and the Mariners are only one game out first place in the AL West and 3 and ½ games out of a wild-card berth.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: The State Of The Cardinals, Leading Into The MLB Trade Deadline. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

John Mozeliak’s first trading deadline as St. Louis baseball boss was back in 2008. Where did the time go? Not counting the pandemic-shortened season of 2020, this will be the Mo’s 16th trade-deadline venture during his term in the head office.

Mozeliak has had some great-good deadlines.

Some transformative deadlines.

Some so-what deadlines.

Inactive deadlines.

Bad deadlines.

We don’t know what to expect before the 2024 MLB trading deadline expires six days from now, on Tuesday afternoon. But I’d be surprised (and disappointed) if the Cardinals fail to secure meaningful help. Their current roster is capable of putting the Redbirds in contention, but may not have the horses to reach the postseason and win a playoff series for the first time since 2019.

The search presumably will cover multiple areas: a right-handed reliever to handle big spots during the late innings. A right-handed hitter that can help prevent the Cardinals from looking like mindless, overwhelmed hacks against mediocre lefty starters like Martin Perez. And, of course, starting-pitching depth. A change in schedule because of a rainout in Atlanta left the Cardinals scrambling to start a rusty reliever, Matthew Liberatore, in Wednesday’s 5-0 loss at Pittsburgh.

Mozeliak has come through for the Cardinals in the past. And they need him to do it again. In a generous spirit of positivity, here’s my list of Mozeliak’s finest wheeling-and-dealing moves at the deadline.

1. Dumping center fielder Colby Rasmus to reorder a problematic pitching staff. Acquiring the effective shortstop Rafael Furcal. Saving the 2011 season.

Manager Tony La Russa wanted the unmotivated Rasmus out of the clubhouse. Mozeliak agreed, but also wanted Rasmus gone for other reasons. Mozeliak got into action with a creative three-way deal involving the Blue Jays and White Sox. He exported Rasmus, the headliner, to Toronto. In the return from the White Sox and Blue Jays, the Cardinals acquired starting pitcher Edwin Jackson, relievers Octavio Dotel and Marc Rzepczynksi, and backup outfielder Corey Patterson. As an added bonus, the deal also expunged Colby’s meddling father, Tony Rasmus.

The Outcome: La Russa made Jon Jay the starter in center field, and had the relief assets to create more advantageous matchups in high-leverage situations. Pitching coach Dave Duncan made a difference with Jackson, who had a 3.58 ERA in 12 starts and beat the Phillies in an NLDS start. A couple of days after the Rasmus trade, Mozeliak landed Furcal from the Dodgers for a marginal outfield prospect. Furcal upgraded the shortstop defense and posted an above-average OPS+ after joining the Cardinals. The Cardinals do not win the 2011 World Series without both of these trades. After Mo’s moves, the Cardinals pitched to a 3.39 ERA, went 32-19 over the final 51 regular-season games, and grabbed the NL’s wild-card spot on the final day … then took down the Phillies, Brewers and Rangers during an incredible postseason run.

2. Welcome to St. Louis, Matt Holiday. You’ll love it here and do great things.

At the 2009 deadline, Mozeliak made a heist in a deal with Oakland, acquiring the future franchise Hall of Famer Holiday for three decent but inconsequential prospects: first baseman Brett Wallace, outfielder Shane Peterson and pitcher Clayton Mortensen.

The Outcome: Holliday put an extra charge in the St. Louis offense over the final two-plus months of the regular season and the Cardinals won the NL Central. Before the 2010 campaign, Holliday signed a seven-year, $120 million deal to remain in STL and had a wonderful career here. He was a big part of five postseason teams including the 2011 World Series champions, the 2013 NL pennant winner, and the 100-win team of 2015. As a Cardinal, Holly was a four-time All-Star, received MVP votes in four seasons. With Holiday’s robust offense and highly respected leadership, the Cardinals led the majors in postseason wins from 2011 through 2015. To this day, Holliday stands out as one of the great Cardinals of the Bill DeWitt Jr. ownership era that began in 1996. As a Cardinal,, Holliday homered 156 times, ripped 401 extra-base hits, drove in 616 runs and put up a slash line of .293/.380/.494.

3. A stunning trade to wake up the team by adding hellfire starting pitcher John Lackey and his biting, outspoken and effective abrasive personality.

The Outcome: This maneuver was one of Mozeliak’s very best – and brashest – deadline plots. At a time when all seemed quiet — with the deadline about to expire — Mozeliak shocked Cardinal fans by acquiring Lackey from Boston for young pitcher Joe Kelly and (sadly) broken-down hitter Allen Craig. Lackey’s salary was incredibly affordable, and he was under contract through 2015. As a Cardinal, Lackey had a 3.10 ERA and handled a huge load of innings in 43 starts. He won two postseason games. He walked into a cozy, happy-go-lucky clubhouse and made it a little uncomfortable, which is exactly what a complacent 2014 team needed. The Cardinals were a sleepy team before the trade; after Lackey arrived they had a .607 winning percentage the rest of the way in ‘14. Lackey was a porcupine. A relentless competitor.

Footnote: I remember getting a text message from a Cardinals pitcher who resented my generous praise of Lackey late in 2014. “You don’t understand,” the pitcher told me. “He’s a jerk. He isn’t very popular. He speaks his mind and guys don’t like him pushing all the time. He’s too edgy.” My response, and pardon my caps: DUH. THAT’S EXACTLY WHY MOZELIAK GOT HIM.

4. Two for 2022: transforming the rotation by acquiring starters Jordan Montgomery and Jose Quintana.

Media and fans hounded Mozeliak to go get a starting pitcher. Well, he did something more awesome than that. He negotiated on two fronts and got two starters. Montgomery and Quintana. Mozeliak sent center fielder Harrison Bader to the Yankees for Monty. He moved corner-infield prospect Malcolm Nunez and starting-pitching prospect Johan Oviedo to the Pirates for Quintana and the durable reliever Chris Stratton.

The Outcome: The two new left-handed starters combined for 23 regular-season starts during the remainder of the ‘22 season, collectively pitching to a 2.56 ERA. And Stratton added important depth to the bullpen. After the two transactions the Cardinals surged to a .650 winning percentage and finished with 93 wins and the NL Central title.

5. 2021: a last-minute maneuver to bring in two low-key but essential starting pitchers in lefthanders J.A. Happ and Jon Lester.

The Cardinals’ 2021 rotation was a big pile of broken parts and junk. Mozeliak had to do something to make his rotation respectable and viable, and he succeeded by bringing in Lester from Washington and Happ from Minnesota. This wasn’t well received by media or fans. Outfielder Lane Thomas was the price for Lester, but the Cardinals didn’t need LT at the time, and he was dealing with injuries. The move was logical. Pitcher John Gant – who couldn’t throw strikes – went to the Twin Cities in exchange for Happ. It worked out just fine.

The Outcome: Applause. The Cardinals were plodding along at 52-52 before the two trades but went 38-20 over the final two months to claim the wild-card spot. The Cardinals were 14-9 in starts made by Lester and Happ, and STL had the seventh-best rotation ERA (3.73) over the final two months. The veteran presence of Happ and Lester had a calming influence in a season of chaos. When folks review Mozeliak’s impressive deadline maneuvers, the Lester-Happ additions are often overlooked. I have no idea why. Their impact was obvious.

6. The Cardinals traded for Edward Who? OMG, what the heck did Mo do, going on a dumpster dive for a no-name reliever?

The 2012 Cardinals were in desperate need of bullpen aid, so Mozeliak gave up a failed former first-round draft choice – third baseman Zack Cox – to the Marlins for right-handed reliever Edward Mujica. Cardinals fans were incensed when old friend Walt Jocketty acquired a big-name reliever, Jonathan Broxton, for the Reds on the same day. Who the hell was this Mujica dude? He’s a nobody. Not exactly. The Cardinals had done their scouting and made a shrewd deal.

The Outcome: Mozeliak knew what he was doing. Mujica came over and had a superb 1.03 ERA in 29 relief appearances for the 2012 Cardinals. He was a crucial addition to a team that kicked in late to win a wild-card spot. The Cards advanced to the 2012 NLCS and stalled. In 2013, Mujica had 37 saves and was chosen for the NL All-Star team. And even though he faded later in the season after being overworked, Mujica was a valuable piece for the 2013 NL champions. In his two postseasons with the Cardinals, Mujica was summoned into 11 games and crafted a 2.79 ERA. This was one of Mozeliak’s most underrated moves.

7. 2010: Mozeliak angers the church lady by trading outfielder Ryan Ludwick for right-handed starting pitcher Jake Westbrook.

Ludwick was a popular Cardinal who had a booming 2008, blasting 37 homers and driving in 113 runs and deservedly earning a place on the NL All-Star roster. Ludwick’s production declined in 2009, but improved in 2010, and that sparked interest from potential trade partners. So Mozeliak flipped Luddy to San Diego in a three-way transaction that brought Westbrook to St. Louis from Cleveland. For their part the Padres traded pitcher Corey Kluber to Cleveland, but the righty wasn’t a hot-commodity prospect at the time. And the Cardinals’ situation required immediate assistance for the rotation; this wasn’t a deal devised to take a flier on a Class A prospect.

The day after making the trade, Mozeliak was stopped on his way out of a Sunday church service by an elderly woman who berated him for trading Ludwick. Mozeliak had his reasons; he needed pitching and wanted to create playing time in the outfield for two emerging young Redbirds, Allen Craig and Jon Jay. The hitters were cost controlled and ready to take on prominent roles and it made sense to open the space by moving Ludwick.

The Outcome: Better than you may remember. I wasn’t crazy about the trade at the time, but I kept an open mind and came around to understanding how the move benefited the Cardinals. St. Louis had strong offenses but needed back-rotation starters and some runway for Jay and Craig. Westbrook was a nice fit. Good pitcher, great teammate. All three guys — Westbrook, Jay and Craig — made the Cardinals better for 2011, and we all know how that season ended.

This was another example of Mozeliak making a solid, quality move that wasn’t embraced at the time. Westbrook gave the Cardinals 75 above-average innings after joining the Cards in 2010, won 12 games in 2011, and had 13 wins in 2012 before injuries set him back in 2013. He was part of the rotation that won the 2011 World Series, reached the 2012 NLCS, and captured the NL pennant in 2013.

Westbrook supplied a healthy amount of innings for the Cardinals and was just what the team needed in a fourth or fifth starter. A fun fact that’s been forgotten: pitching in relief in extra innings, Westbrook was officially the winning pitcher in the classic 10-9 victory over Texas in 2011 World Series Game 6. In that memorable drama, Jay went 2 for 4 and scored a run, and Craig hit a solo homer in the eighth to cut the Texas lead to 7-5. In Game 7, Craig broke a 2-2 tie with a fourth-inning HR that put the Cardinals ahead to stay. It was Craig’s fourth HR of the 2011 postseason, he paid off in a big way when Holliday suffered an injury that took him out of the World Series. With all due respect to Ludwick, by that time I don’t think a single Cardinal fan had a curse word for the 2010 trade. I assume the church lady was happy with the second World Series parade in six years.

Good luck to Mozeliak and associates as they try to find the talent – and a match – by the trading deadline. This is a crucial time, and test, in STL’s bounce-back season.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: Looking At John Mozeliak’s Finest Trade-Deadline Deals For The Cardinals. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

Cardinals 2, Pirates 1.

What a ballgame.

Let us review some of the things that made the competition so special.

1) Lance Lynn, the old grizzly, held his own against the rookie Pittsburgh phenom Paul Skenes. There were a lot of pitcher pounds out there on the mound at PNC Park. A LOT of pitcher pounds. If we go by the combined weight of the two starting pitchers – as officially listed – Lynn + Skenes added up to 515 pounds. Lynn stands 6 feet, 5 inches tall. Skenes is 6 feet, 6 inches. I’d like to see them go at it in a UFC brawl. But Skenes is 15 years younger than the 37-year-old Lynn, so he gets the edge in stamina. But Lynn is more of a ruffian. He’d win a lot of battles in the parking lot of a roadhouse.

2) This was the Millennial pitcher vs. the Gen Z pitcher, which made their matchup even more colorful. True fact: when Lynn, the rookie, pitched for the Cardinals in the 2011 World Series, Skenes was a little fella of 9 years old.

3) Lynn heaved fastballs for five laborious, intense innings. The Pirates couldn’t land a single punch to score a run. And the home team had Lynn surrounded and cornered. Only 10 of Lynn’s pitcher-hitter conflicts came with the bases empty. Lynn pitched to 12 batters when the Pirates had men on base. He confronted seven Pittsburgh hitters with runners lurking in scoring position. Lynn took on two hitters with the bases loaded, and fought his way out of it both times. Lynn was in trouble. He could have gone down. But the Pirates couldn’t make him crack. Lynn used up a lot of pitches to fend the Pirates off. He was a stubborn old cuss.

4) The mountainous Skenes had made his first 11 big-league starts without being charged with a loss. His individual record was 6-0. And now he’s 6-1. Skenes outpitched Lynn in several ways. Skenes went deeper into the game, 8 and ⅓ innings compared to Lynn’s 5 IP. Skenes didn’t allow a walk. The Cardinals dinged him for only four hits, and went down on strikes eight times. Lynn pitched to 22 Pirates and seven reached base. Skenes pitched to 29 Cardinals and only four reached base. But Lynn would not surrender to the Jolly Roger. And the Cardinals got to Skenes for two runs on a solo homer by Nolan Arenado, and a ninth-inning RBI single by Alec Burleson that broke a 1-1 tie. That was it for Skenes. He was done for the night.

5) The Cardinals were a betting-line underdog in this one. And who would question that? Lynn came into this assignment with a 5.21 ERA in his previous 13 starts. Skenes was the talk of baseball. The NL’s starting pitcher in last week’s All-Star Game. Skenes strikes out opponents at a rate of 34.2 percent, and Lynn’s 92 mph fastball doesn’t unnerve hitters. So for the investors who understandably wagered on the Pirates to prevail in this Lynn vs. Skenes clash – well, better luck next time. The idea of beating Skenes made Lynn even more ornery than usual.

6) Lynn grunted for career strikeout No. 2,000 in this game. He finished his shift with 1,013 career strikeouts as a Cardinal. Let’s pause for a minute to express appreciation. The Cardinals have been the Cardinals since 1900, and only six pitchers in franchise history have amassed 1,000 or more strikeouts: Bob Gibson (3,117), Adam Wainwright (2,202), Dizzy Dean (1,095), Chris Carpenter (1,085), Bob Forsch (1,079) and Lance Lynn. Only 16 pitchers have started more games for the Cardinals than Lynn’s 181. And only 20 Cardinal pitchers have been credited with more individual wins than Lynn’s 77. On Tuesday night, Lynn didn’t get the win, but he left the game with a 1-0 lead … and certainly did his part to make this a successful evening for the Cardinals. The record will not show a “W” by Lynn’s name after his effort at Pittsburgh. But that record will show a “L” next to Skenes, and Lynn had a helluva lot to do with that.

7) My favorite pitcher vs. hitter engagement to watch in this tight game was Michael Siani super-pest skills vs. Skenes. The St. Louis center fielder batted ninth and had three plate appearances with Skenes glaring down at him. Skenes had to throw 19 pitches to shoo Siani away in the three at-bats. In those three ABs, Siani fouled off seven pitches. He took five balls out of the strike zone. He watched three called strikes. He had only two swings-and-misses. He put two pitches in play. The first was a groundout. The second time came in the ninth inning, when Siani concluded a six-pitch at-bat by lining an opposite field double on a 98 mph fastball to scoot into scoring position. Siani advanced to third on Masyn Winn’s groundout, and scored on Burleson’s latest RBI delivery. Siani’s at-bats against Skenes were fantastic, and I don’t think any of us would have predicted this before the game.

8) I wanted to look something up. It’s a good stat. Here are my findings: the three hitters who made Skenes throw the most pitches to them in a game this season were Pete Alonso (20), Matt Olson (20), and Michael Siani (19). Siani became only the fifth LH batter to sting Skenes for a double this season. And only one opposing hitter, Michael Busch, fouled off more pitches (8) against Skenes in a game than Siani did last night.

9) The Cardinals are 39-30 when Siani starts a game this season. Not only is Siani providing award-winning caliber defense, but he’s stepping up as a hitter. I wrote a lot about this earlier this week, but let’s do a quick update. Since June 12, Siani is 24 for 82 (.293) with a .318 onbase percentage and .402 slugging percentage. And when batting against right-handed pitchers during this time, Siani is 18 for 60 for a .300 average.

10) The defensive play of the game was made by Cardinals catcher Willson Contreras. Fifth inning, bases loaded, two outs, St. Louis up 1-0, Lynn trying to tough it out. Nick Gonzales was up for the Pirates. He tapped a pitch to the left side, a good amount of space from home plate. Contreras sprinted, pounced, wheeled around, and lasered a perfect throw to first baseman Paul Goldschmidt for the final out. Crisis averted. Lynn hollered and pumped his fist. Contreras hollered, and winked. It was the best play made by a St. Louis catcher since Yadier Molina retired.

11) Now, about Burleson: Biscuit came through again. Siani on third. A 1-1 game. Skenes came at Burleson with a 99 mph fastball. Fouled off. Skenes stayed with the plan and came right back with another 99 mph fastball. Fouled off. Skenes, determined to win the challenge, took aim at Burly for a third time with a 98 mph fastball. Burleson lined a single to right. RBI. Cards lead 2-1.

12) Burleson has 60 RBIs on the season. But he’s cashed in 22 RBIs in July, the most in the National League and tied for second in the majors. Through Tuesday, Burleson was batting .347 in July with a .358 OBP and .627 slugging rate.

13) Since the start of June, Burleson is hitting .302 with a .330 OBP, .560 slug, 13 home runs and 42 RBI. Those 42 runs batted in are the most by an NL hitter since June 1 – and second overall to Aaron Judge (44.)

14) My favorite Burleson stat of the day: he has driven in a run in 13 different games this month. That’s the most games with an RBI by a major-league hitter in July. And since June 23, Burleson has come through with an RBI 10 times to snap a tie and give the Cardinals the lead.

15) It was good to see Arenado smile after he attacked a first-pitch curveball by Skenes for a pull-shot home run to left. The launch gave the Cardinals a 1-0 lead and was Arenado’s 10th of the season. That’s two solo homers for Arenado in the last five games. In a related note, 16 of the last 19 homers struck by St. Louis have been solo shots. And 11 of the team’s last 12 home runs were solos.

16) Lefty JoJo Romero had another distressing outing, giving up two hits and a run while retiring only one batter in the fifth. The Cards’ 1-0 lead was gone. Romero isn’t safe with a lead. In his last 17 appearances dating back to June 3, he has a 6.00 ERA and four blown saves and has allowed a .320 average, .393 OBP and .560 slug. And in his last 10 appearances, Romero has been tagged for three earned runs in 6 and ⅔ innings – and has struck out only one of 32 batters faced.

17) The other St. Louis relievers were just about perfect Tuesday. John King, Andrew Kittredge, Ryan Fernandez and Ryan Helsley combined for 3 and ⅔ innings, gave up one hit, didn’t walk a batter, and struck out five. Kittredge got a double-play grounder in the seventh. Fernandez got a crucial double-play grounder in the eighth after replacing Romero to prevent the Pirates from taking the lead. Helsley struck out the side in the ninth (on just 13 pitches) and pocketed his 33rd save of the season. The Cardinals lead the majors with 37 saves. Helsley leads all MLB relievers with 33 saves, and has a save-opportunity success rate of 94 percent. The St. Louis bullpen ranks fourth in the majors with a 3.43 ERA and is third in Win Probability Added.

18) The Cardinals and Pirates are closely matched. The division rivals have played eight games against each other this season and six of the eight were decided by one run. The Cards are 5–3 against the Pirates; three of the wins were by one run and a fourth came by two runs. And all three Pittsburgh victories over St. Louis were one-run wins. The teams will do it again Wednesday at 11:35 a.m. STL time.

19) The Cardinals’ defense leads the NL with 94 ground-ball double plays this season. Only Oakland (95) has turned more GIDP. The strong defense is a factor in STL’s 3.94 ERA that has improved to No. 14 in the majors. The Cardinals’ 20 defensive runs saved ranks 13th in the majors.

20) Accounting Department: With the win, the Cardinals remained five games behind first-place Milwaukee in the NL Central. But the Cardinals are now only two games behind the Braves in the bid for the NL’s No. 1 wild card spot. The Cardinals are the No. 2 wild card, a half-game ahead of the No. 3 Mets. In other wild-card considerations, the Cardinals lead the Padres by one game, the Diamondbacks by 1 and ½ games, and the Pirates by two games. The Cubs are Reds each trail the Cardinals by five games … the Cardinals still have the NL’s best record (38-24) since May 12 … St. Louis is 43-34 since April 24 for the third-best record in the NL over that time.

Thanks for reading!

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: In The Cardinals’ 2-1 Win At Pittsburgh, Lance Lynn vs. Paul Skenes Was Fantastic Theater. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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One week to go on the trading-deadline clock, and I’m counting down and looking around the National League. Here come the sharp traders, playing the angles, looking for the fools to exploit. And those fools will find fool’s gold. Here come the nervous front offices that fear risk, and they’re terrified of the big sharks circling for easy prey. Teams will be made. Teams will be broken. And the spring-time dreams will relocate to the reality-based conditions of the here and the now.

In 2024 the National League is a place of hopeless mediocrity … but a bunch of teams can still hope for a place in October. The competition is absurd but exciting. It’s a lollapalooza out there. Contradictions and mixed feelings abound. Even the cliches are scrambled; it ain’t easy to separate buyers from sellers or the contenders from the pretenders. They’re not really all the same, but it sure as hell seems that way.

Philadelphia, Milwaukee and Los Angeles sit atop the three National League divisions. Through Monday, the three wild-card spots were in the hands of the (1) Braves, (2) Cardinals, and (3) Mets.

After that we see the Pirates and Padres only a ½ game away from what would be the final postseason entryway, with the Diamondbacks parked at just one game out. Next is a cluster of five teams – Cubs, Giants, Reds, Nationals – that are within 4 and ½ games of getting into the tournament.

The current math puts 13 of the 15 NL teams in the chase. (Sorry, Marlins and Rockies.) Some have much better odds than others.

With that in mind, here’s a capsule look at the 13 teams potential champs-or-chumps. I’ll list them order of the postseason probabilities as deemed by the esteemed Clay Davenport …

PHILLIES: Playoff Odds, 99.9%

What They Need: Bullpen help for sure. And a right-handed bat for the outfield to form a platoon with Brandon Marsh. But the mighty Phillies are 27th in the majors for offensive production from the center-field spot, so perhaps the aggressive Dave Dombrowski will make a run at White Sox CF Luis Robert.

DODGERS: Playoff Odds, 99.6%

What They Need: the franchise with an enormous treasury of revenue has been walloped hard by injuries to the starting rotation. So we can expect the Dodgers to pursue trade targets such as Jack Flaherty, Garrett Crotchett, Nathan Eovaldi, Erick Fedde and anyone else you’d like to include in the starting-pitcher speculation. The LA outfield is 19th in the majors in OPS and I’d expect the Dodgers to firm that up.

BRAVES: Playoff Odds, 90.7%

What They Need: with so many injuries, the Braves are unlikely to chase down the Phillies for first place in the NL East. This team should be a lot healthier later in the season and may be content to take what they have into the postseason. That said, it’s hard to imagine the shrewd and opportunistic Atlanta front office sitting this one out. They’ll jump at a couple of things to reinforce the rotation and secure their outfield depth.

BREWERS: Playoff Odds, 90.1%

What They Need: Even after making a low-risk trade for Aaron Civale, the Milwaukee is heading to the starting-pitcher aisle to look for an arm (or two) that can lessen the stress on a patched-up, stitched-together rotation. The Brewers’ starters collectively rank 30th (last) in innings, 27th in quality starts, 25th in WAR and 19th in ERA. Believe it or not, 16 different pitchers have started games for the Crew this season. Some of those were first-inning “openers” by relievers. But that doesn’t change the assessment: the team’s starting pitching is vulnerable.

DIAMONDBACKS: Playoff Odds, 42.3%

What They Need: Left-handed relief. It’s a serious problem. Arizona’s lefty relievers have a 6.25 ERA overall (29th) this season and are 30th with a 7.15 ERA in the final three-plus innings of a game. The entire bullpen ranks 23rd in save percentage. The Snakes have lost six games when leading through seven innings and four games when taking a lead into the ninth inning. The front office would like to upgrade the third base position and dump Eugenio Suarez if possible.

METS: Playoff Odds, 41.3%

What They Need: The bullpen is shaky, and team president of baseball operations David Stearns had an excellent record of finding low-cost, effective relievers in trade-deadline deals while running Milwaukee’s operation. The rotation will be a point of emphasis, and ownership won’t have a problem with taking on salary. The Metropolitans wouldn’t trade walk-year first baseman Pete Alonso, right?

CARDINALS: Playoff Odds, 39.9 percent

What They Need: Just one dude’s opinion, and you can line these up in any order of your choosing: (1) a right-handed bat; (2) definitely a high-leverage reliever; (3) starting-pitching depth. I’d be surprised if John Mozeliak goes big here, but the last time the Cardinals were aggressive at the deadline, they made a three-team deal in 2011 to upgrade the bullpen and stabilize the rotation and proceeded to win the World Series. About the desire for a right-handed bat: the Cardinals are 29th in the majors this season in offensive performance against left-handed pitching. Their slash line in matchups vs. lefties is .224/.286/.337 … the declines of Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt created an unexpected void that has lowered this team’s offensive ceiling in 2024. And the Cardinals are trying to capture a postseason spot with one of the weakest benches in the majors.

PADRES: Playoff Odds, 39.8%

What They Need: sedatives for president of baseball operations A.J. Preller. I’m only kidding, but the hyperactive Preller will be itching and twitching to do whatever he can to acquire one of the best available starting pitchers on the market. Multiple media reports have Preller obsessing over Garrett Crochet, the big prize that’s being dangled by the White Sox for a massive trade price.

CUBS: Playoff Odds, 19.1%

What They Need: Offense and relief help. But president of baseball ops Jed Hoyer has Chicago media and team fans freaking out by signaling the club plans to sit tight … and, if anything, will look to sell off assets for a generous return. The Cubs haven’t qualified for the playoffs in a full season since 2018. They spent $40 million to lure manager Craig Counsell from Milwaukee. They have very good starting pitching that has them only 3 and ½ games out of the third wild card. And Cardinal fans question Bill DeWitt Jr.’s commitment to winning?

PIRATES: Playoff Odds, 17.8%

What They Need: The Pirates need an infusion of offense. And they need an abundance of rental options to choose from. The Pirates won’t make a splash trade; GM Ben Cherington will peruse the lengthy list of pending free agents that teams are willing to move for a reasonable cost. Expect the Pirates to be busy in the coming days. One dude’s opinion: because of their excellent starting pitching, the Bucs have the best chance of any team in the NL Central to steal first place from Milwaukee.

GIANTS: Playoff Odds, 11.4%

What They Need: Don’t ask, because they probably won’t go for it. As The Athletic notes: “A year ago at the deadline, the Giants were 58-49 and leading the NL wild card standings and their only acquisition was broken-down outfielder A.J. Pollock.” This team has been over .500 for only four days all season, gave up two second-round draft choices last offseason to sign free-agent starting pitcher Blake Snell and free-agent third baseman Matt Chapman. The 40-man payroll is the sixth-highest in the majors. This ain’t their time.

REDS: Playoff Odds, 6.8%

What They Need: You mean, other than a new manager? The Reds are loaded with a treasure trove of young talent and are only a bold move or two from having a chance to get into the playoffs and be a dangerous challenger. But passive ownership and an overly cautious front office will likely settle for a cosmetic move or two … nothing grand. If the Reds make noise it will happen by selling off starting pitcher Frankie Montas (a pending free agent) and a couple of relievers.

NATIONALS: Playoff Odds, 1.15%

What They Need: One more offseason to finalize the rebuild – or get close to it – and give themselves a more realistic opportunity to return to the playoffs in 2025. For now, it makes sense to strengthen the rebuild by shipping movable pieces for a positive return. Cagey GM Mike Rizzo did that 10 days ago by trading a good reliever, Hunter Harvey, to the Royals for the 39th overall draft pick and third-base prospect Cayden Wallace. More of that is coming.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie: A Week To Go Before The MLB Trade Deadline. It’s A Crazy, Anxious Time For NL Contenders/Pretenders. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

The St. Louis front office is said to be working the emails, texts and phone calls in the pursuit of a starting pitcher before time runs out on the July 30 trading deadline.

If president of baseball ops John Mozeliak and staff are successful in adding a starter, what would it mean for the current members of the rotation? The Cardinals won’t be going with six starters – so who gets bounced?

Before you answer that, here are the individual ERAs for Cardinal starters since Andre Pallante was plugged into the rotation on May 29:

+ Andre Pallante: nine starts, 3.42
+ Miles Mikolas: 10 starts, 4.40
+ Sonny Gray: nine starts, 4.45
+ Kyle Gibson: eight starts, 4.57
+ Lance Lynn: eight starts, 5.77

That fine 3.42 Pallante ERA stands out, eh? It looks even better when we see the combined earned-run average of the other four STL starters (4.72) since Pallante joined the band.

Pallante’s ERA is a solid indication of performance quality. I say that because his fielding independent ERA (FIP) over that time, 3.78, is in the same range. The only two St. Louis starters that have posted a superior FIP since May 29 are Gray (2.95) and Gibson (3.59.)

Pallante has averaged 5.25 innings per start, and part of that is manager Oli Marmol’s tendency to pull Pallante sooner than later in games.

But not always, and Pallante’s recent start against the Royals is an example. Marmol stayed with Pallante a little longer in the opener of a July 10 doubleheader to have more bullpen options for the second game. The Royals got to Pallante for three runs in the fifth inning to tie the game and proceeded to a 6-4 victory.

In terms of pitching deeper into starts, is Pallante more fragile than the others?

You be the judge:

ERA, 3rd Time Through The Lineup Since May 29

Pallante, 3.12
Mikolas, 4.50
Gray, 5.68
Gibson, 6.48
Lynn, 7.71

Again, I’m using May 29 because we have to include Pallante’s work to compare it to the others. Among Cardinal starters, only Lynn has averaged fewer innings per start (4.87) than Pallante since May 29.

All of this is very interesting. If the Cardinals can make the move for a starter, a large percentage of observers would say “Pallante” when asked to pick the starter that’s most likely to be displaced from the rotation. And I would have said that, too.

But would it be the correct decision? I’m not so sure. Pallante has pitched well in most of his outings, recording an average-or-better Game Score in six of nine starts. And if anything the right-hander is improving.

The main challenge for Pallante is taking on right-handed batters. They’ve put up eye-opening numbers against Pallante since his MLB debut in 2022. But even though it’s a small sample, the trend is shifting.

— Pallante vs. RH batters in his first five starts: .333 average, .417 onbase percentage, .548 slugging percentage, .965 OPS. And during this stretch there was only a 6.3 percent difference between Pallante’s strikeout rate and walk rate when facing RH hitters.

— Pallante vs. RH batters in his last four starts: .222 average, .263 onbase percentage, .352 slug, .615 OPS. And the difference between his strikeout rate and walk rate against right-handed batters over this time increased to 17.5 percent.

Again: not much of a sample size, but this is all I had to go on when I began looking to see if Pallante has made progress against RH hitters. And he has. During this time of positive change, RH batters have still punished Pallante’s four-seam fastball for a .316 average. But he’s repelled them with his sinker (.200 batting average) and slider (.222 average.)

Pallante’s ground-ball rate vs. RH batsmen has always been high, but he’s been more effective in this area. Over his last four starts, Pallante has churned a 63 percent GB rate against RH bats, and he’s getting a good number of grounders with his four-seam fastball. In the last four starts, hitters have a .182 average on ground balls against Pallante but are 2 for 17 on grounders hit when he uses the sinker or four-seam. And obviously it helps to have a strong infield defense.

In 19 career starts for the Cardinals, Pallante has a 3.72 ERA and 3.90 FIP. He isn’t Chris Carpenter or Adam Wainwright, but he’s done a commendable job when given a starting assignment.

Pallante certainly did his part to lead the Cardinals to a win Monday at Pittsburgh: six innings, three hits, two walks, three strikeouts and a 72.2 percent ground-ball rate. But all the Cards could manage was a solo home run by Nolan Gorman in a 2-1 loss. Pallante is good at working his way out of jams; as a starting pitcher this season opponents have hit .170 with runners in scoring position. And the PIrates were 1 for 8 against him in RISP at-bats Monday.

I don’t know what the Cardinals will do if they come away from the marketplace with a starting pitcher over the next week – but Pallante is doing what he can to make it a more difficult decision. How could the Cardinals justify pulling Pallante from the rotation when he’s pitched so effectively and shown that he belongs? If we get to that point, Mozeliak and Marmol can explain.

But – as the old cliche goes – you can never have too much starting pitching. Injuries happen. Fatigue is a factor. Lance Lynn could go off the rails. Padding the starting-pitching depth makes sense.

It comes down to three questions (1) what starters out there are realistically available; (2) how aggressive will Mozeliak be; (3) what would the Cardinals have to give up in trading for a coveted starter?

ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT: The Brewers lost to the Cubs on Monday, so the Cardinals remained 5.0 games behind the first-place Crew in the NL Central … the Cards hold the No. 2 wild-card spot but are only a half-game above the No. 3 Mets and are a game ahead of the Pirates and Padres and 1 and ½ games up on the Diamondbacks … after losing Monday, the Cardinals are 15-15 this season in games against division rivals. Milwaukee is 6-1 against St. Louis but the Redbirds are 14-9 against the Pirates, Reds and Cubs … Monday’s loss dropped the Cardinals back to .500 (26-26) on the road … the Cards are 36-37 this season when the opponent starts a right-handed pitcher. The Redbirds will face another righty Tuesday night in Pittsburgh’s Paul Skenes, the tower of power.

NOT MUCH TO SAY … about Monday’s 2-1 setback at PNC Park. Pittsburgh starter Mitch Keller and relievers Aroldis Chapman and David Bednar held the Cardinals to six singles, two walks and Gorman’s 19th home run. Gorman led off the fifth inning with his homer but after that the Cardinals had two hits (singles) in 17 at-bats and went quietly into the Pittsburgh night.

For me, this was the stat of the game for the offense: The Cardinals were 1 for 11 with four strikeouts when hitting with runners on base. That includes their 0 for 3 with runners in position to score. The top five hitters in the St. Louis lineup combined for two hits (singles) in 18 at-bats. Paul Goldschmidt had two singles, so that deserves a quick thumbs-up.

HANS SOLO WOULD APPROVE: The Cardinals sure do like to fly solo when hitting home runs. They’ve hit 62 solo homers this season … 10 of their last 11 HRs have been solo shots … and 15 of their last 18 bombs have been solos. The Redbirds have only seven three-run homers and one grand slam this season. They’ve hit only one three-run shot since June 22.

LANCE LYNN TO THE MOUND: Best of luck to Lynn, who draws Pittsburgh’s incredible-hulk rookie Paul Skenes in Tuesday’s starting pitching matchup. Skenes faced the Cardinals on June 11 at Busch Stadium, pitching 6 and ⅓ scoreless innings while striking out eight and limiting the home team to four singles and a double.

Lynn’s Statcast profile is troubling:

* Lynn is in the bottom 12 percent of major-league pitchers in total Pitch Run Value.

* All of his pitches are well below the league standard: bottom 32 percent in fastball Run Value, the bottom 13 percent in breaking-ball Run Value, and the bottom 20 percent in offspeed pitch Run Value.

* Lynn has used his four-seam fastball on 46.8 percent of all pitches thrown this season. Problem is, his average four-seam velocity (92 mph) is among the bottom 20 percent of major-league pitchers. Lynn has been fortunate to allow a .394 slugging percentage on the four seam; based on quality of contact the expected slugging percentage is .492.

* Lynn rates among the bottom 10% of pitchers with an opponent barrel rate of 10.2 percent. And the hard-hit rate against him (40.6%) is in the bottom 34 percent.

SCARY SKENES: He’s in the top three percent of MLB pitchers for strikeout rate, and also in the top three percent in total Pitch Run Value. But to go along with his dominant 35 percent strikeout rate, Skenes gets hitters to hit a pitch to the ground on 50 percent of the balls they put in play against him.

And about that famous “splinker” pitch that Skenes uses to make hitters look foolish … they’re batting .157 with a .193 slugging percentage against the splinker this season. The hybrid pitch has the velocity of a hard sinker and the vertical drop a nasty splitter. Throwing 95+ mph with wicked vertical movement? Ridiculous.

The Pirates are 8-3 when Skenes starts. He has a 1.90 ERA in his first 11 major-league starts, and opponents have batted .202 against him. Vulnerability? I don’t know, but opponents have homered four times against his four-seam fastball.

THREE STRIKES, AND … Nolan Gorman’s 37.9 percent strikeout rate is the worst among qualifying MLB hitters this season. Paul Goldschmidt’s 28.7% strikeout rate is the 11th worst in the majors. Goldy and Gorman have a combined total of 256 strikeouts in the team’s first 100 games. The two have accounted for 30 percent of STL’s 845 total strikeouts so far in 2024.

WHERE’S JOJO ROMERO? Marmol went with lefty John King in the eighth inning Monday and King gave up the winning run on a single, wild pitch, and RBI single. King has done a very good job for the Cardinals this season, so I’m not criticizing the move to go to him. That said, I think a lot of Cardinals’ fans are wondering: what happened to JoJo Romero?

Perhaps he’s hurting. Maybe he’s just recuperating from a heavy work schedule early on. I don’t know, and if this is anything related to an injury, only Romero can’t disclose that … or Marmol could talk about an injury problem as long as Romero grants permission. But he hasn’t been the same pitcher.

To keep this simple, I’ll just show the month-by-month strikeout rate for JoJo this season:

= March-April: 30.8 percent
= May: 19.2 percent
= June: 17.1 percent
= July: 5.9 percent

After pitching in in 38 games and covering 37 innings over the first three months, Romero has made five appearances and worked 3 and ⅔ innings in July.

He’s struck out 1 of 17 batters faced this month (5.9%), and 4 of 47 hitters (8.5%) in his last 15 appearances. In his last 18 relief outings, Romero has struck out eight of 64 hitters (12.5%.)

Something ain’t right.

And the Cardinals clearly miss Romero’s strikeout punch. And right now they’re carrying two relievers — Romero and Giovanny Gallegos — that Marmol is reluctant to use. St. Louis has played 26 games since Gallegos was reactivated from the IL on June 21.

During the last 26 games, Romero has faced only eight hitters in high-leverage situations — and Gallegos hasn’t thrown a single pitch in high-lev scenarios. Gallegos has pitched to 32 hitters since returning; all 32 were low-leverage situations. And 75 percent of the hitters encountered by Romero since June 26 have come in low or medium leverage.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: Andre Pallante Is Making A Case To Stay In The Cardinals’ Rotation. Plus: Where’s JoJo? appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

It can’t be easy to go to Atlanta, blow a 2-0 lead, and feel a little jab of heartsickness after losing 3-2 in 10 innings. It was a demoralizing way to drop the opener of a three-game series.

The Cardinals had to pick themselves up and recover from the disappointment of losing the first game of Saturday’s doubleheader. The second game – and a potential sweep – was calling.

How would the Cardinals respond? With a splitting headache caused by another loss? Or how about salvaging a doubleheader split?

We couldn’t have asked for anything better. The Cardinals took care of the first challenge by winning 9-5 on Saturday night. They followed with a crisp 6-2 victory on Sunday afternoon.

After absorbing a harsh blow in their first game after the All-Star break, the Cardinals knocked off the Braves for two straight wins, outscoring the home team 15-7.

In doing so the Cardinals:

* Won the series at Atlanta.

* Won the season series with Atlanta, 4-2.

* Won for the fourth time in six games after being dumped by Kansas City in that double-header depressor at Busch Stadium on Jan. 10.

* Got back to five games over .500 (52-47) in their 99th game of 2024.

* Improved to 21-13 (.618) since June 12th, a record that’s second best in the National League over that time.

* Maintained the best record in the National League (37-23, .617) since May 12. Only the Houston Astros have done better than STL over the past 10 weeks.

The Cardinals are 12-4-3 in their last 19 series for an excellent show of consistent success. After a stumble – losing consecutive road series at Philadelphia and Houston, then splitting a four-game set with Colorado at home – the Cardinals got right back to it. They’re 7-2-2 in their last 11 series. They’ve demonstrated staying power and the ability to shake off setbacks and frustration to punch back and avoid a prolonged slump.

The 2024 Cardinals are still surrounded by many questions. There’s the July 30 trading deadline, coming soon. The offense. The decline of Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. The overall strength and depth of the starting pitching. The bench. The load of responsibility and dependence that’s put on the bullpen. The odds of continuing to survive and win so many air-tight games.

Another thing to like about the Cardinals’ direction is an evolving personality. Competing hard, yes. Putting in the preparation and the work … absolutely. Serious about winning … no doubt about it. But they’re looser. More playful. Acting silly. Happy to be goofy. Paying comical tributes to teammate “DJ Biscuit” – better known as Alec Burleson. And by the way, is Biscuit the perfect nickname for Burly, or what?

This is different. This is also what happens when younger players are stepping forward to carry the team while the two respected elders, Arenado and Goldschmidt, desperately try to find the form that made them so feared by opponents. Both players are intensely serious. There’s no horseplay. There’s no lightening of the mood. The batter’s box is an intensive-care area. These two proud men are on a grim mission to restore what has been lost.

And when the “kids” see the elders bummed out and distressed and ticked off, it’s got to be hard for the younger guys to step around them to lead the parade, and set a new tone, and all but post a giant sign that says: IT’S OK TO HAVE FUN PLAYING BASEBALL! SMILE!

Willson Contreras is 32, and he burns as hot as any competitor in the game. But there’s a playful, light-hearted side to his persona. Biscuit Burleson is dead serious about hitting … but boy how he loves to swing the bat. Remember playing any kind of baseball as a kid, even in the backyard? The joy of connecting with a pitch and smacking it hard. The glee of running the bases and barreling into home plate with a run. That’s Biscuit.

Rookie Masyn Winn has the flair to go with his talent and intelligence. He’s constantly cursing at his own pop-ups; you can hear him on the Bally Sports Midwest Audio. But he doesn’t hold that anger. He channels it into his next at-bat, his next chance to make a swell play at shortstop. He shakes off the bad stuff, replaces it with positive energy, and proceeds to bug the hell out of opponents by the way he hits to all fields to mess up their defensive alignments.

Brendan Donovan is – and this is a compliment – a dirt player. Diving, sliding, throwing his body around. After games his uniform is a mix of grass stains, dirt smears, and sweat residue. That long hair rides with him.

Lars Nootbaar, a celebrity in Japan. Hyperactive. He was that kid in your grade school that always had the teacher yelling at him to be quiet, sit down, be still, and quit squirming – and don’t eat the glue! That’s for the construction paper! Nootbaar never met a wall that he didn’t want to get acquainted with.

Nolan Gorman is the big younger brother, too strong for his own good at times. Swings as if his entire existence depends on it. Wants to hit every pitch into a nearby river – any river will do. The teammates are in awe of his strength, and they all but have a party in the dugout when an epic home-run warhead leaves his bat. It’s like rooting for a superhuman figure who is out to save the world from evildoers. You can only wait for the big moment to arrive – and then go crazy.

This goes along with the generational shift that I wrote about late last week. The younger hitters have emerged to take charge of this offense. If ‘Nado and Goldy can pull something together – preferably home runs – everybody will be thrilled. But as I said last week, the younger Cardinals know they can’t sit around and wait for the big uncles to save them. The younger birds have to go do it on their own.

Taking over the offense … changing the team personality … putting the fun back into playing baseball. Biscuit and the boys are leading the parade. And they’re making the Cardinals a more likable team.

ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT: Milwaukee swept their two-game series at Minnesota and still lead second-place St. Louis by 5.0 games in the NL Central. But the Cardinals improved their positioning in the NL wild-card derby. As noted, the Cards trail No. 1 seed Atlanta by 2 and ½ games and are 1 and ½ games ahead of the three teams (Mets, Diamondbacks, Padres) that are tied for the No. 3 wild card spot. As for the other wild-card applicants, the Cardinals are 4 and ½ games above the Giants and lead the Cubs, Reds and Nationals by 5 and ½.

PLAYOFF ODDS: Excluding the three division leaders – Phillies, Brewers and Dodgers – here are the percentage of probabilities for clinching an NL wild-card pass according to FanGraphs:

Braves, 80.5%
Padres, 39.8%
Diamondbacks, 39.1%
Mets, 37%
Cardinals, 31.2%

But because FanGraphs gives the Cardinals a 16.2 percent of winning the NL Central, the Redbirds have the fifth-best probability (47.5) of making the playoffs among NL teams behind Philly (99.9%), LA (98.9%), Atlanta (88.7%) and Milwaukee (87.8%.)

THE BURLY FILE: Burleson was huge again, drilling the Braves for six hits in 14 at-bats and delivering six of the 16 RBIs the Cardinals had in the three games. Burleson was money when it mattered, going 4 for 7 (.571) with five RBIs when hitting with runners in scoring position.

– Manager Oli Marmol moved Burleson into the No. 2 lineup spot on May 26. Smart move. In 190 plate appearances as the No. 2 hitter this season, Burleson is batting .314 with a .340 onbase percentage, .573 and .918 OPS. He also has 13 home runs and 39 RBIs from the No. 2 slot.

– For perspective, chew on this: among 18 MLB hitters that have at least 190 plate appearances as the No. 2 hitter this season, Burleson is second in slugging and tied for third in batting average. And his .918 OPS is fifth behind Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani, Bobby Witt Jr., and Trea Turner. Not bad.

– Since the end of May, Burleson leads the National League with 41 RBIs, which is seven more than the next guy on the list, Brandon Nimmo.

– Only one NL player, Ohtani, has more home runs than Burleson since June 1. The score: Ohtani 16, Biscuit 13.

– Since June 1, Burleson is sixth in the NL in slugging percentage (.575) and his wRC+ puts him 51 percent above the league-average hitter.

GOLDY TO THE SEVENTH SPOT: And why not? He;s been failing in the 2-3-4 spots this season. And though this is a sliver of a sample, Goldschmidt seems comfortable when batting fifth or seventh. In 39 plate appearances in those spots, Goldschmidt has hit .333 with a .385 OBP and .556 slug for a .940 OPS. In 378 plate appearances batting second, third or fourth Goldschmidt has struggled with a .214 average, .277 OBP, .353 slug and .629 OPS.

As I wrote Sunday, here’s where Goldy ranks among MLB hitters that have regularly occupied the 2-3-4 lineup spots this season:

* batting average, last
onbase percentage, last
slugging percentage, 29th of 31
OPS, last
28.3% strikeout rate, 30th of 31
*** 80 wRC+, tied for last and 20 percent below league average.

MILES MIKOLAS: He pitched a dandy game for the Sunday win in Atlanta, allowing seven hits and two runs in six innings. His ERA this season (5.02) makes you grimace. But it’s been a wild ride for Mikolas, and he’s done some really good things.

Here’s what I mean:

– His 13 quality starts are tied for fourth among National League pitchers.

– He’s sixth in the NL with 118 and ⅓ innings pitched.

– Thirteen of his 21 starts have been above average based on the Bill James Game Score formula. Two have been slightly below average, but in one of the two he allowed three runs in six innings. MM’s six other starts have been pretty much have been fertilizer: 27 and ⅓ innings, 11 home runs, 36 earned runs, and an 11.85 ERA. The average Game Score in the six starts was just under 22. The average game score is 50.

THE BULLPEN REPORT: St. Louis relievers worked eight innings and were charged with one run, that coming on the home run allowed by Ryan Fernandez in the 3-2 loss in Saturday’s first game. (That two-run HR also plated an inherited runner that had singled off Cards starting pitcher Kyle Gibson.) But during the two straight wins that clinched the series for the Cardinals, the bullpen pitched eight scoreless innings, allowing two hits and a walk with five strikeouts. That fine work was handled by Kyle Leahy, Fernandez, Andrew Kittredge and Ryan Helsley. The St. Louis relievers had a 1.13 ERA in the three games.

For the season, the St. Louis pen leads the majors in saves (36), is third in holds (76) and ranks fourth with a save rate of 72 percent. The Cardinal bullpen ERA (3.44) ranks fourth in the majors, and their relievers are third overall in Win Probability Added.

The Cardinals have a 2.31 bullpen ERA in the team’s 52 wins. Their bullpen ERA in the seventh-eighth-ninth innings is 2.97, tops in the NL.

The Cardinals are 44-2 when leading a game through seven innings. That’s a .955 winning percentage that ranks first in the NL and second overall.

The Cardinals, at 46-0, are the only NL team with a perfect winning percentage when leading after eight innings. Two AL bullpens have done it, Cleveland (52-0) and Minnesota (43-0).

NEXT ON THE SKED: A tough three-game series at Pittsburgh beginning Monday night. The Pirates (50-49) are in third place in the NL Central, two games behind the second-place Cardinals. The Bucs have played well lately, going 8-2 in the last 10 games. They had won six in a row before losing to Philadelphia on Sunday – but still won two of three from the NL’s best team. The Pirates have a starting-pitching ERA of 3.56 that ranks fourth overall and second in the National League. They’re also fourth overall and second in the NL with 46 quality starts.

Since phenom rookie starter Paul Skenes joined the rotation on May 11, the Pirates are tied with the Dodgers for the fourth-best record (33-27) in the NL behind the Cardinals (37-24), Phillies (36-24) and Brewers (34-27). And Pittsburgh’s starting-pitching ERA with Skenes in place (3.51) is the best in the NL since May 11.

Pittsburgh’s problem is an offense that ranks 21st among the 30 MLB teams in runs per game (4.18), 23rd in homers, 25th in batting average, 26th in onbase percentage, 27th in slugging, 27th in OPS and 28th in OPS+.

In the first two games of the series the Cardinals will face Mitch Keller (3.46 ERA) and Skenes (1.90.) Keller has a 5.06 ERA this month. Skenes has a 1.14 ERA and 34.4 percent strikeout rate in his last six starts.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: As The Younger Cardinals Take Over, We’re Seeing A Team That’s Having A Lot More Fun. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

We’ve come to admire Michael Siani’s defense in center field. In both defensive runs saved and outs above average, Siani is running in a virtual tie at the top of the center-field leaderboard with Washington rookie Jacob Young. Siani certainly will be in the discussion when the Gold Glove talk starts to bubble.

There’s more to Siani than his ability to take away doubles, terminate triples, and kill singles with his speedy, wide-ranging defense that has no boundaries. Siani could cover Forest Park if you asked him to.

I think we should reevaluate our overall assessment of Siani’s value to the 2024 Cardinals. We don’t think of Siani as an asset offensively, but he’s trying to change the perception.

Here are some below-the-radar numbers on Siani’s hitting that may surprise you. This isn’t intended to make the case that Siani is Jim Edmonds, or something. Heavens no. But what I’m passing along here is meant to show Siani’s gradual improvement through more playing time.

– In 77 plate appearances since June 16, Siani is batting .288 with a .316 onbase percentage and .397 slugging percentage. Big numbers? No. But context is necessary. These are good numbers for a defensive ace who saves runs for his pitchers.

– Since June 16, Siani’s .288 average ranks third among Cardinals in batting average, trailing only Brendan Donovan and Alec Burleson.

– Siani’s .316 OBP since June 16 is higher than that of Paul Goldschmidt, Masyn Winn and Nolan Gorman.

– Siani’s .397 slug since June 16 is the same as Winn and higher than the slugging rates posted by Gorman and Nolan Arenado.

– Siani’s .713 OPS since June 16 is the fourth best among regular Cardinals. Not only that, the .713 OPS tops Arenado (.707) and Goldschmidt (.713) over that time.

– Siani also leads the Cardinals in stolen bases (6) since June 16.

Siani continues to heat up …

– Since June 24, he’s batting .309 overall but has thrashed right-handed pitchers for a .325 average, .357 OBP and .375 slug. His wRC+ against righties over that time is 12 percent above league average offensively.

– Siani’s slugging percentage (.375) against RHP since June 24th is higher than that put up by Goldschmidt (.361) and Arenado (.328.) Oh, my.

– Siani’s .732 OPS vs. righties since June 24 puts him above Gorman (.704), Lars Nootbaar (.683), Arenado (.646) and Goldschmidt (.564.)

– Siani, who bats left, doesn’t get a lot of at-bats vs. lefty pitchers. But even then, he’s gone 4 for 15 against them (.267) since June 24.

– Siani went 4 for 10 in Atlanta over the weekend, helping the Cardinals win two of three games from the Braves.

Flaws? Sure. Siani strikes out too much, doesn’t walk much, and lacks power. And all of the positive numbers I’ve cited here can be found in the small-sample bin. But the point is, Siani has made progress offensively. And he’s been a really good baserunner and small-ball specialist all along.

As an inexperienced major-league hitter who earned an expanded role with the big club for defense-first reasons, Siani’s upturn on offense only adds to his value.

Since June 16, only three St. Louis position players have more Wins Above Replacement than Siani: Brendan Donovan, Alec Burleson and Willson Contreras.

Siani has 1.1 WAR for the season. That may not look like much, but among big-league outfielders Siani’s 1.1 WAR matches Corbin Carroll, the reigning NL Rookie of the Year. And it’s the same as Jesse Winker and Mike Yastrzemski.

Siani’s 1.1 WAR for the entire season is above many notable outfielders including Cody Bellinger, Randy Arozarena, Jarred Kelenic, Seiya Suzuki, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Will Castro, Michael Conforto, Lane Thomas, Mark Canha and Brent Rooker.

Bellinger got hurt (broken finger) shortly before the All-Star break, but that’s not why Siani has outperformed Bellinger in WAR. Bellinger has more plate appearances (258) than Siani (225) this season.

Before Ronald Acuna Jr. suffered a season-ending knee injury, he had 1.1 WAR in 222 plate appearances. Siani has 1.1 WAR in 225 PA. If you believe in the value of defense, then Siani has plenty of value, and those WAR metrics shouldn’t offend you.

What, if anything, does this prove?

A) Siani is a surprise. A most pleasant surprise. That’s always a plus for a contending team. I don’t think any of us would have predicted Siani earning such a prominent role by the All-Star break.

He’s gone from being a marginal major-leaguer to one of the Cardinals’ more valuable pieces during their rise to postseason contention. His emergence has coincided with the Cardinals’ finest stretch of winning baseball. And he’s one of their best storylines of the season.

B) You never know about a player until he gets a full opportunity.

C) The St. Louis front office was smart to claim Siani on waivers (from the Reds) last September. It’s never a stupid idea to take a flier on a young player who has terrific speed and elite defensive range. Siani’s sprint speed is in the top 20 percent of MLB players this season, and his defensive range is at the very top of the Statcast rankings.

D) Serendipity is a thing. The Cardinals didn’t plan to turn their center-field gig over to Siani; they’d be the first to acknowledge that. But the CF plans were altered and redrawn after injuries to Tommy Edman, Dylan Carlson and Lars Nootbaar and a poor audition by rookie prospect Victor Scott II. The Cardinals didn’t want to play Nootbaar in center on a regular basis, but he can be used there – but not when he’s on the IL for two extended stays during the season’s first half. Hey, Siani! It’s your turn. And I give credit to manager Oli Marmol for sticking with Siani as his de facto starters. St. Louis pitchers are happy with the manager’s decision.

E) Siani provides value with his exceptional defense. That would be true if the dude was batting .168. But he’s better than that. Siani is evolving into a more capable hitter through extensive reps in the batter’s box.

I do not lose sight of the fact that Siani’s 66 wRC+ for the season is 34 percent below league average offensively. Yeah, that’s pretty bad. But relative to how Siani started out offensively this season, you have to like the way he’s trending.

Compared to where his numbers sat after the first two months of the regular season, here’s a look at Siani’s improvement since the beginning of June:

+ OPS is up 108 points
+ Batting average up 60 points
+ Slugging percentage up 88 points
+ wRC+ up 25 points

Siani’s impact on the campaign is undeniable.

Since May 12, the Cardinals are 36-20 (.643) with Siani in the starting lineup.

And they’re 20-10 (.667) in Siani’s last 30 games as a starting player.

Thanks for reading …

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.

The post Bernie’s Redbird Review: Michael Siani’s Value To The Cardinals Continues To Grow. appeared first on Scoops Sports Network.

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WEEKEND AT BERNIE’S

The Cardinals (as you know) split a doubleheader in Atlanta on Saturday. Not to be greedy here, but the visitors should have won both games.

In the early game, the Redbirds let a 2-0 slip away to lose 3-2 in 10 innings. At least they rebounded for a 9-5 victory in the late game.

Let’s get to it …

HITTING SOME FUNGOES

* Baseball isn’t always fair to starting pitchers. Kyle Gibson turned in a terrific start for the Cardinals in Game 1, allowing just three hits and two walks in 6 and ⅔ innings. The Braves didn’t score on Gibson while he stood on the mound. He was removed by manager Oli Marmol after giving up a two-out single in the bottom of the seventh. Reliever Ryan Fernandez inherited Gibson’s runner and served up a two-run homer golfed into the right-field seats by Eddie Rosario.

* Watching the game in real time, I wasn’t thrilled when Marmol yanked Gibson there. The right-hander had disposed of Matt Olson (ground out) and Marcell Ozuna (strikeout) to open the seventh. I try to be fair, however, and I can understand Marmol’s reasons for making the move. The single off Gibson came on his 100th pitch of the game. The rookie Fernandez has been an excellent reliever for the Cardinals this season. He was fresh and ready to go. Fernandez had been solid against left-handed batters this season, holding them to .211 average before Saturday. Fernandez had allowed only one extra-base hit (a double) to LH hitters in his previous 19 relief appearances.

* Fernandez threw a flat slider and Rosario burned it. But Fernandez has been one of STL’s most trustworthy relievers in 2024, coming into Saturday’s appearance with the lowest ERA by a Cards reliever (1.74) since the end of April. I can only imagine the reaction if Gibson gave up a two-run homer after Marmol stayed with him and left Fernandez in the bullpen.

* The St. Louis bullpen has been fantastic but it’s ridiculous to expect these guys to be invincible just about every time they’re under pressure. Before Saturday’s loss, the Cardinals were 34-4 when leading after six innings. The problem Saturday was an offense that scored only two runs in 10 innings.

* After taking a 2-0 lead on Nolan Areando’s solo home run in the seventh, St. Louis hitters went 2 for 13 with a walk and four strikeouts the rest of the way. As we know by now, the Cardinals play a ton of low-scoring games that leave little margin for error. The underwhelming St. Louis offense frequently leaves the door open for opponents, and that can lead to trouble. The Cardinals are 4-22 this season when scoring two runs or fewer in a game.

• In Game Two, Sonny Gray was shelled for four home runs and five earned runs in seven innings. After the Cardinals staked Gray to what should have been a pretty comfortable 5-1 lead, four of the next 12 Atlanta hitters that confronted Gray took him deep for homers. In the middle of all that Brendan Donovan hommered to give the Cards a 6-2 lead, but a three-homer barrage against Gray in the sixth left the Braves down by a run, 6-5. The Cardinals put up three insurance runs in the ninth to win 9-5. Good job by reliever Kyle Leahy, who came up from Triple A Memphis and worked the final two innings to ice the Braves.

* Gray was walloped for a .786 slugging percentage in his start. But Gray was credited for a “win” only because the St. Louis offense saved him. That offense didn’t give Gibson much run support, and the Cards lost despite a winning performance by Gibson. Based on the actual pitching, Gibson deserved a win Saturday and didn’t get it. Gray deserved a loss and didn’t get it.

* The Cardinals are 10-9 when Gibson starts a game this season. But in the nine Gibson starts that ended in defeat, the Cardinals scored 25 total runs – an average of 2.7 runs per game. And they scored three runs or fewer in seven of the nine Gibson starts that resulted in a loss. Just another reminder that pitcher won-lost records can be misleading and deceiving. Gray’s Saturday outing lowered his season ERA to 3.99.

ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT: First-place Milwaukee beat Minnesota in extra innings Saturday night and lead the second-place Cardinals by 5.0 games in the NL Central … the Cardinals lead third-place Pirates by a game. Pittsburgh has won six in a row and and is 8-1 in its last nine … since rookie ace Paul Skenes joined the Pittsburgh rotation on May 11, the Pirates are 33-26 and have the third-best winning percentage (.559) in the National League over that time … since Skenes made his MLB debut, Pittsburgh’s 3.51 starting-pitching ERA is No. 1 in the NL and second to Seattle overall … the Cardinals are an NL-best 36-23 since May 12, which is 1 and ½ games better than the Phillies, who are second in the NL over that time … the Cardinals’ .610 winning percentage since Mother’s Day is No. 3 in the majors, with only Houston (.644) and Cleveland (.614) doing better … the Cardinals are 3-2 against the Braves this season and can win the season series with a victory in Atlanta on Sunday afternoon.

TRENDS FOR SONNY GRAY: He has a 6.17 ERA in his last four starts, getting smacked for a .330 batting average, .347 onbase percentage, .588 slug, and a .934 OPS in the assignments. Gray has a 4.60 ERA in 13 starts since May 9. His eight quality starts on the season are tied for 46th among MLB pitchers.

LEADING MEN: In both games Oli Marmol went with a lineup that had Masyn Winn leading off, Alec Burleson batting second, and Willson Contreras hitting third. The top three hitters had an outstanding day collectively, going 12 for 28 (.429) with five RBIs and five runs scored. Over the two games, the top three spots in the STL lineup had 12 of the team’s 23 hits, five of the 11 RBIs, five of the 11 runs scored, and six of the seven hits with runners in scoring position.

BURLY BALL CONTINUES TO ROLL ON: This season Burleson leads the Cardinals in batting average (.292), RBIs (57) and total bases (160) and is second in slugging (.492) and OPS (.815.)

– Since June 2, Burleson’s 39 RBIs tops the National League and is tied with Aaron Judge for the most in majors.

– Burly’s 12 home runs since June 2 are tied for fifth in MLB.

— Burleson had only 39 RBIs, total, in 363 at–bats for the Cardinals during his first two seasons.

— Burleson has just as many RBIs (39) in 165 at-bats since June 2 this season.

– Burleson leads the majors with 32 RBIs since June 22. That’s because he’s been a spectacular 13 for 26 with runners in scoring position over that time. His 25 RBIs in RISP situations sine June 22 are the most in the majors. No other NL player has more than 17 RBIs with RISP since that date.

NO. 4 THROUGH NO. 9: During Saturday’s doubleheader the fourth-fifth-sixth-seventh-eighth-nine spots collectively had 11 hits in 47 at-bats (.234), struck out 18 times in 51 plate appearances (36%) and went 1 for 9 with six strikeouts when batting with runners in scoring position. But it wasn’t all bad. Arenado hit that solo home run in the day game, and in the night game Cardinals got a two-run blast from Nolan Gorman and the solo HR by Donovan. For the day Donovan drove in three runs, Lars Nootbaar went 3 for 7 with a double and a walk, and Michael Siani was 2 for 6 with a walk and scored two runs.

TOUGH TIMES FOR GOLDY

+ Paul Goldschmidt batted cleanup in both games and was hitless in eight at-bats with four strikeouts. And he was 0 for 2 with runners in scoring position. After going 14 for 50 (.280) with six extra-base hits and a .480 slugging percentage during his first 11 games in July, Goldschmidt is 0 for 12 in his last three games – and six of the 12 at-bats ended in strikeouts.

+ After struggling on Saturday, Goldschmidt is batting .225 with a .287 onbase percentage and .365 slugging percentage for 2024. His OPS+ is 17 percent below the league-average standard offensively. Goldschmidt has made 302 outs this season, and only five MLB hitters have made more outs than him: Anthony Volpe, Ezequiel Tovar, Maikel Garcia, Bryan De La Cruz, and Marcus Semien.

+ Among 145 big-league hitters that have enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title, Goldschmidt ranks No. 119 in batting average and slugging percentage and is No. 128 in onbase percentage and OPS.

+ Marmol continues to use Goldschmidt in the No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4 lineup spots. This isn’t going well. It’s an ongoing failure. This season, 31 major-league hitters have made at least 350 plate appearances in the 2-3-4 spots combined. Here’s where Goldy ranks among the 31 in several categories when batting second, third or fourth:

* .214 batting average, last
.277 onbase percentage, last
.353 slugging percentage, 29th of 31
.629 OPS, last
28.3 percent strikeout rate, 30th of 31
*** 80 wRC+, tied for last. (That wRC+ is 20 percent below league average.)

— When used at 2-3-4 in the lineup in ’24, Goldschmidt has batted .160 with runners in scoring position. That ranks last among the 41 hitters that have at least 75 plate appearances in RISP situations as the 2-3-4 hitter. He’s also last in slugging percentage (.198), OPS (.466) and wRC+ (41) when hitting with runners in scoring position and has the second worst strikeout rate.

Thanks for reading …

Enjoy your Sunday.

–Bernie

A 2023 inductee into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Bernie has provided informed opinions and perspective on St. Louis sports through his columns, radio shows and podcasts since 1985.

Please follow Bernie on X @b_miklasz and Threads @miklaszb

For weekly Cards talk, listen to the “Seeing Red” podcast with Will Leitch and Miklasz. It’s available on Apple, Spotify, or where you get your podcasts. Follow @seeingredpod on X for a direct link.

Stats used in my baseball columns are sourced from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, StatHead, Baseball Savant, Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball Net, and Sports Info Solutions and Cots Contracts unless otherwise noted.

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THE REDBIRD REVIEW

The Cardinals can go either way in the second half of the season. The All-Star break is over, and now it is time to discover who the Cardinals really are. They could be good. They could be mediocre. They could be bad. I know this is possible because they were bad, mediocre and good before the break. They were all over the place. Their identity was still developing, and still erratic.

The Redbirds are moving into a different mode now. They have only 66 games to go. And out there on Route 66, is there a playoff run in their future, or will the road end in a breakdown?

I know this much: