The IRF Podcast: Recent Episodes
irfpodcast
Insights from some of the world's top independent investment research providers spanning a range of countries, asset classes and themes.
David Osman of IRF is joined by Ron William, the Founder of RW Advisory.
In this podcast Ron assesses the underlying cyclical trends in the global financial markets and highlights those sectors and investment styles that should perform well during the remainder of this year from a structural and tactical perspective.
----more----
Ron then discusses the importance of his business cycle roadmap and what it implies for 2027. He says that this, in conjunction with the unfolding convergence of short-, medium- and long-term cycles in the next 5 – 6 years, indicates that we are in a prolonged late-cycle period of slower economic growth and inflation volatility due to potential energy, fiscal and geopolitical shocks. Ron discusses what this will likely mean for short term interest rates, long-term government bond yields and the yield curve in the US and elsewhere over the next 18 months, including the potential for a “generational regime shift”. Ron also explains what this means for world stock markets, with particular reference to the US and the AI investment theme. In addition, he discusses the outlook for the currency and commodity markets, highlighting the prospects the US dollar, gold and Bitcoin in both the near term and the longer term. Ron concludes by highlighting his high-conviction investment recommendations for his preferred markets, sectors and styles, as well as identifying the main risks that investors should watch out for.
Ron William is a market strategist with over 20 years of experience producing macro research, trading strategies and insightful non-consensus ideas for leading economic research and institutional firms. Ron is also a behavioural finance expert, trading psychologist and performance coach. RW Advisory specialises in blended, top-down, semi-discretionary analysis, driven by his cycles roadmap and by his proprietary timing models, which use both quantitative and qualitative techniques.
David Osman of IRF is joined by Chris Watling, the Founder, CEO & Chief Market Strategist at Longview Economics.
----more----
In this podcast, Chris Watling explains how the A.I. investment boom is impacting on the US economy and elsewhere. He discusses the underlying trends in income and consumption with reference to the wealth-effect of the A.I.-driven rise in the US stock market. He points out how US economic growth appears to be broadening in response to the credit cycle and the industrial cycle. Chris discusses the outlook for inflation, with particular reference to the current geopolitical concerns and the rise in energy costs. He then assesses the likely differences in the monetary policy responses in Europe, the US and Japan. He also explains how the conduct of US monetary policy is likely to evolve under the new Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh and how that will eventually influence other central banks around the world. This leads into a discussion about the outlook for the US dollar. Then, in conjunction with his view on the prospects for the world economy, Chris sets out some of his key global strategy recommendations for asset allocations in the Bond, Equity and Commodity markets, including his views on several of the most important emerging markets.
Prior to founding LongView Economics in 2003, Chris Watling was the European Economist and Strategist at Cazenove where he developed his proprietary Risk Appetite Gauge Models, which are also known as “RAG” Models. When combined with SELL-off indicators, these “RAG” Models have proved to be very successful in calling equity market direction and timing waves of risk aversion in global markets.
LongView Economics is an Independent Global Macro and Strategy Advisory Boutique that is located in London. Their pioneering research approach brings Macro and Markets together, drawing on Deep Macro Analysis of the most important global themes, cycles and events in order to make actionable, often contrarian, investment and trading recommendations.
David Osman of IRF is joined by Paul Cavey, the Founder of East Asia Econ.
----more----
In this podcast, Paul Cavey of East Asia Econ explains that there are two terms of trades shocks playing through in East Asia at present, one positive, one negative. He points out that the A.I. boom and the strength of the global semiconductor sector have helped the stock markets of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan to reach new record highs recently, despite the Gulf war and the oil price shock. With respect to China, Paul discusses the evidence that suggests the Chinese economy is stabilising and should pick up once there’s a US-Iranian peace agreement and the oil market starts to normalise. In Japan, Paul says there are expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates to combat the rise in inflationary pressures, thereby helping to support a stronger yen exchange rate, but this is not a done deal. In South Korea and Taiwan, Paul highlights how the growth-inflation trade off is influencing monetary policy and could result in a strengthening of the Korean won and the Taiwanese dollar versus the US dollar.
Paul Cavey has been living in East Asia for over twenty years – in Taipei, Beijing, Hong Kong and Tokyo. Paul is currently living in Taiwan and is fluent in Mandarin Chinese. He has been analysing the Economies of the East Asian region, with a particular focus on China, for over 25 years. Previously, Paul has been the Chief Regional Economist at several leading firms, notably the Economist Intelligence Unit, Macquarie Securities and Wellington Management. East Asia Econ provides high-quality research and thematic analysis of Macroeconomic and Market Issues in China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan.”
David Osman of IRF is joined by Dinny McMahon, the Head of China Markets Research at Trivium China.
----more----
In this podcast, Dinny McMahon assesses China’s economic policies and the underlying state of the economy, including the ongoing deep-rooted problems in the property sector. Dinny then discusses the extent to which China might continue to fail to achieve its objective of a consumption-led growth model in the next few years. He questions the appropriateness of China’s fiscal policy and monetary stance, given the extent to which the economy has been flirting with deflation for the past three years.
Dinny also reviews the progress that China has made with respect to the internationalization of the renminbi, as the dollar loses some of its global status. In addition, he notes the improving performance of Chinese equities since the lows in 2024 and discusses the various factors that are making the mainland stock market more attractive to investors. He concludes with a discussion of China’s main objectives for the period of the next 5-Year Plan.
Before joining Trivium China in 2020, Dinny McMahon was a Fellow at Marco Polo, a China-focused think-tank. Dinny is also a Global Fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and an Economic Advisor at ShoreVest Partners. He is a former Banking & Financial Markets Analyst at Enodo Economics and a former journalist who was based in China for many years for the Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires. In addition, Dinny is the author of ‘China’s Great Wall of Debt’, which was published in 2018.
Trivium China’s policy research team produce readable, primary source-driven analysis on China's political economy. Trivium takes a unique approach to China analysis, combining deep expertise, primary-source research and on-the-ground China experience. Their mission is to ensure their readers never miss a critical policy development.
David Osman of IRF is joined by Carl Weinberg the Founder, Managing Director and Chief Economist at High Frequency Economics.
In this podcast Carl Weinberg assesses the latest data and discusses the risks to the outlook for the US economy, with particular reference to the impact on economic growth and consumer price inflation of a labour market that has reached the level of full employment. Carl then reviews the risks and the uncertain impact on the US economy and the rest of the world of the Trump Administration’s tariff measures, given the erratic nature of the tariffs and their illegality. In addition, Carl discusses the conduct of US monetary policy and the outlook for US interest rates with reference to the prospective changes in the Chair of the Federal Reserve in May.
Prior to founding High Frequency Economics in 1988, Carl Weinberg was the Chief Economist at Shearson Lehman Brothers. Carl has also worked at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in Paris as a member of the economic forecasting unit. He currently teaches a graduate course in international finance at New York University.
High Frequency Economics (HFE) provides sophisticated investors with insights on the global economy and financial markets. HFE produces unbiased and provocative analysis that assists the investment decisions of institutional investors.
David Osman of IRF is joined by Jeffrey Christian, the Founder and Managing Partner of the CPM Group.
----more----
In this podcast Jeffrey Christian provides an informative rundown on the outlook for commodity investments in 2026 and beyond. He begins with an assessment of the prospects for the demand, supply and prices of precious metals, both in the near term and in the longer run.
In the energy sector, Jeffrey considers the various factors that make the outlook for crude oil prices uncertain this year, not least because of potential geopolitical developments in Venezuela, the Middle East and Ukraine, as well as the current erratic nature of US foreign policies. He expects oil prices to remain relatively steady, while natural gas prices have some upside potential. Jeffrey then discusses his preferred commodities and concerns in the base metals sector and the agricultural markets.
The episode concludes with an assessment of the various factors that are impacting on the flow of funds into the commodities sector and Jeffrey explains why he believes that global asset allocators should have a substantial position in commodities in a multi-asset portfolio for 2026 and beyond.
Jeffrey Christian has been a prominent analyst and advisor on the commodities markets since the 1970s, with work spanning precious metals, energy markets, base metals, the agricultural markets and economic analysis.
Founded in 1986, the CPM Group is an independent commodities research, consulting, asset management and investment banking firm that provides comprehensive research, analysis and advisory services. The CPM Group is also known for its overall economic analysis of the commodities markets and its expertise in financial engineering.
David Osman of IRF is joined by Ron William, the Founder of RW Advisory.
----more----
This podcast assesses the longer-term cyclical factors that indicate global financial markets could reach a major turning point in 2026 or later in this decade. Ron discusses the outlook for inflation and the various elements that could create an echo of the high-inflation era of the 1970s. This has further bullish implications for the prices of gold and silver.
Ron then explains his concerns about the rapidly rising A.I.-related demand for energy, which is now outstripping the predicted supply trends. He also assesses the outlook for interest rates, government bond yield and world stock markets, before concluding with a discussion of the prospects for the US dollar and some other key currencies in the foreign exchange markets.
Ron William is a market strategist with over 20 years of experience producing macro research, trading strategies and insightful non-consensus ideas for leading economic research and institutional firms. Ron is also a behavioural finance expert, trading psychologist and performance coach.
RW Advisory specialises in blended, top-down, semi-discretionary analysis, driven by cycles and by proprietary timing models, which use both quantitative and qualitative techniques.
David Osman of IRF is joined by Paul Cavey, the Founder of East Asia Econ.
----more----
In this podcast, Paul Cavey discusses the various cyclical and structural themes that are influencing the economic outlook for China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. He explains why he thinks that the overall deflationary forces within the Chinese economy may be easing and why there is scope for some cautious optimism about China’s economic outlook relative to the current downbeat consensus expectations.
Paul then highlights the key issues that are impacting on the main currencies in the region, noting the significance of the weakness of the Chinese renminbi and the Japanese yen in recent years. He goes on to discuss the two shocks that have had an impact on Japan’s economy, the US tariff shock and the pick-up in the annual rate of Japanese inflation. He assesses what these shocks could mean in terms of the policies of the new prime minister, with respect to Japan’s interest rates and the exchange rate, given the more stimulative stance of fiscal policy. Paul then discusses the impact of the global A.I. trend on the regional semiconductor sector in general, and on the Taiwanese economy and the South Korean economy in particular.
Paul Cavey has been analysing the economies of East Asia, with a particular focus on China, for over 25 years. Previously Paul was the Chief Regional Economist at several leading firms, notably the Economist Intelligence Unit, Macquarie Securities and Wellington Management. East Asia Econ provides high-quality analysis of macro and market issues in China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan.
David Osman of IRF is joined by David Murrin, the Founder of Global Forecaster.
----more----
In this podcast they discuss David Murrin's ‘5 Stages of Empire’ model and the influence of longer run cyclical trends on geopolitical risks, political factors, the world economic outlook and the prospects for the global financial markets.
David assesses the deep-seated problems in the USA and the damage that President Trump’s tariffs and other policies are doing to the country’s international reputation. He points out that this has major implications for the value of the US dollar and its role as the world’s reserve currency.
David also explains the basis for his dramatic views about the dangers of Chinese expansionism in northeast Asia and the rising risks of a wider war in the Middle East, as well as the potential for an escalation of Russia’s hostile actions in Europe.
David says this has put us on the cusp of World War 3, pitting the West against hostile actions by the “Axis of Autocracy”. Meanwhile, he points out that the unfolding of a commodity super cycle will have a profound impact on global inflation, bond markets and cryptocurrencies. David notes that this helps to explain the recent sharp increase in the price of gold into overbought territory. In these circumstances, David sees the prospects for world stock markets becoming increasingly problematic, particularly the outlook for the US stock market and its dominant AI investment theme.
David Murrin has done more than most to link long-run historic trends and human behaviour to successful investment decisions. David is a polymath who is renowned for his development of a unique set of behavioural models whilst at JP Morgan, which have been used to predict financial markets in an effective and profitable way. These models provided the foundation for his multi-decade career in the hedge fund industry.
Global Forecaster was established by David in 2019 to provide a unique, top-down, geopolitical overview and actionable real-time market analysis within a risk framework, and with a focus on profitable short-term trading opportunities, as well as longer-term asset allocation decisions in the global financial markets.
David Osman of IRF is joined by Helen Thomas, the Founder & CEO of Blonde Money.
----more----
In this podcast they discuss the increasing focus on fiscal policy relative to monetary policy in the highly-indebted developed world and the consequent growth in the importance of political risk analysis.
Helen then assesses some of the geopolitical, political and economic risk factors that will influence the medium-term outlook for the global financial markets. Focusing on Japan, France, Germany, the UK and the USA, she highlights various factors that point towards the mispricing of risks and opportunities in the bond, equity and currency markets, as well as the prospects for the gold price.
Helen Thomas has a long and distinguished career in both finance and politics. Helen was an adviser to the former Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne. She also created the Financial Markets Reform Programme for the think tank, Policy Exchange. Previously, Helen has been a partner in the global macro hedge fund, ABD Investment Management, and a former Head of Currency Alpha for State Street Global Advisors.
Blonde Money was established in 2014 as an independent consultancy firm to bring together the worlds of politics and finance. Helen and her team analyse and monitor mispriced risks in financial markets in the USA, UK and the EU.
David Osman of IRF is joined by Dimitris Valatsas, the Chief Economist at Auroa Macro Strategies.
----more----
In this podcast they discuss the prospects for US economy and the financial markets. Dimitris considers the impact of the Trump Administration’s immigration policies on a weakening labour market. He also assesses the outlook for US monetary policy with particular reference to the prospective erosion of the central bank’s independence and what this would mean for inflation and interest rates.
Dimitris reviews the legal challenge to President Trump’s tariff policies and what this could mean for fiscal policy, given the projected high level of the federal budget deficit. He then discusses the outlook for the US dollar and concludes with an assessment of the importance of the A.I. investment theme for the economy and the stock market.
Dimitris Valatsas has over a decade of experience advising asset managers, hedge funds, family offices, and other financial institutions on macroeconomic and market developments, focusing on the USA and Europe.
Aurora Macro Strategies provides actionable insights on global macroeconomics, geopolitics and policies. The AMS team has decades of experience advising investors across developed and emerging markets.Their research and advisory process is organised around four central pillars: Neutrality, Confidentiality, Forward Thinking analysis and a Diversity of viewpoints.
David Osman of IRF is joined by James Burdass, the Managing Partner at Commodity Intelligence to discuss the evolving role of commodities in a global multi-asset portfolio.
----more----
In doing so, he assesses the importance for investors of the way that the global markets for many individual commodities are fracturing and becoming more fragmented with regional factors becoming more important. James says heightened geopolitical risk factors, a proliferation of US tariffs, distortions to international trade and disruptions to global supply chains have created a “New World Order” that is having a significant impact on the nature of investment in the commodity markets. He discusses what this means for investors in precious metals and the oil and gas markets, as well as some of the key base metals and soft commodities.
Commodity Intelligence LLP was established in 2008. James Burdass became the Managing Partner and owner of the business in 2024, having previously been the Chairman since 2021. James’s has a career that has spanned more than 25 years in commodities research, including 14 years on the buy side.
Commodity Intelligence provides specialist advice on Global Commodity Markets and Equities. Their approach is based on the use of Artificial Intelligence to source information, predominantly from the internet, to identify key themes before traditional financial media.
David Osman of IRF is joined by Ron William, the Founder of RW Advisory.
----more----
In this episode they discuss the longer run cyclical trends and other factors that are likely to influence the global financial markets during the remainder of this year and beyond. Ron outlines how, in the near term, financial markets are generally seen as being in a volatile trading range, due in part to the ongoing vagaries of US tariff policies. Against this backdrop, he assesses the investment implications for the currency, bond, equity and commodity markets.
In the currency markets, Ron discusses the outlook for the US dollar trade weighted index (DXY) and some of the dollar’s key cross rates. In the bond markets, he explains the potential for US and UK interest rates to experience a prolonged “higher-for-longer” period, which would rhyme with the inflationary pattern in the 1970s. He then discusses the continuing upside potential and the cyclical downside risks in the US and UK stock markets, as well as identifying some other stock markets that are particularly attractive at present.
Ron also assesses the prospects for gold and other important commodities. With respect to the cryptocurrency markets, he discusses the emerging importance of Bitcoin and Ethereum as macro hedge safe haven plays. Ron concludes with an assessment of the longer run Kondratieff wave and the shorter 3-5 year business cycle and discusses the potential for a big shift in the global financial markets whereby capital preservation becomes an important focus.
Ron William is a market strategist with over 20 years of experience producing macro research and trading strategies for leading economic research and institutional firms. Ron is also a behavioural finance expert, trading psychologist and performance coach.
RW Advisory specialises in blended, top-down, semi-discretionary analysis, driven by cycles and by proprietary timing models, which use both quantitative and qualitative techniques.
David Osman of IRF is joined by Hamza Ghani, the Head of Crypto Research at ABCG Research.
----more----
In this podcast, Hamza explains the rapidly evolving crypto asset landscape from Bitcoin and altcoins to stablecoins and tokenized instruments. In doing so, he reviews the emerging regulatory environment and discusses other important factors, such as upgrades to the blockchain infrastructure and increasing institutional engagement in crypto assets. Hamza then sets out the way that a cryptocurrency can be analysed and forecast. He discusses his medium-term predictions for the price of Bitcoin in the current upcycle and subsequent downswing, thereby identifying a key potential buying opportunity for the next five years. Hamza puts crypto in the context of their global multi-asset allocation recommendations and identifies those crypto investment opportunities that look most attractive and those that are unattractive.
ABCG Research specialises in alternative investments and macroeconomic research, providing deep insights, market trends and data-driven analysis to support strategic decision-making in a dynamic global economy. With a focus on precision and innovation, they provide businesses and investors with actionable intelligence.
David Osman of IRF is joined by Manoj Pradhan, the Co-Founder of Talking Heads Macro.
----more----
In this podcast, Manoj Pradhan discusses the global structural factors that are pointing towards a potential regime change in the rate of inflation, with reference to such factors as ageing populations, immigration policies, deglobalisation and artificial intelligence. He assesses the extent to which the US breakeven rate currently reflects the medium-term inflationary risks. Manoj reviews these risks with particular reference to US fiscal and tariff policies, as well as the heterodox nature of President Trump’s policy agenda. He then assesses the problems that face the Federal Reserve as it tries to carry out its dual mandate to contain inflation and to maximise employment. Manoj concludes with an assessment for global asset allocators of the outlook for interest rates, bond yields, equities, currencies and some investment opportunities in the US, UK, EU, Japan and several of the Emerging Markets.
Talking Heads Macro (THM) was established in 2016 by Manoj and his cofounder, Charles Goodhart, the renowned former member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee and Professor at the London School of Economics. THM generates macroeconomic trade recommendations on a 3-6-12-18 month horizon by showing how current developments fit into longer-term themes. In 2020, Manoj Pradhan and Charles Goodhart produced a highly influential book, which was entitled: “The Great Demographic Reversal – Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality and an Inflation Revival”.
The IRF is joined by Helen Thomas, the Founder & CEO of Blonde Money.
----more----
In this podcast Helen discusses the nature and extent of the various uncertainties that have been created by the Trump Administration and those policies designed to “Make America Great Again”.
From a geopolitical perspective, Helen discusses President Trump’s approach to the Sino-US relationship, the Russian war in Ukraine and the risks of a wider military conflict in the Middle East involving Iran, Israel and the USA. She assesses the potential impact of his tariff policies on the US economy and elsewhere, with particular reference to the volatile impact on the financial markets. Helen then discusses some of the key factors influencing the outlook for US monetary policy and the US bond market, before focusing on the prospects for the US stock market and the US dollar. In conclusion, Helen assesses the longer-term implications for the durability of the USA’s leading role in the world.
Helen Thomas has a long and distinguished career in both finance and politics. Helen was an adviser to the former Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne. She also created the Financial Markets Reform Programme for the think tank, Policy Exchange. Previously, Helen has been a partner in the global macro hedge fund, ABD Investment Management, and a former Head of Currency Alpha for State Street Global Advisors. She is a CFA charter holder and serves on the UK board of the Chartered Financial Analyst Institute. Helen is also a Freeman of the City of London and has a degree in Philosophy, Politics and Economics from Oxford University.
Blonde Money was stablished in 2014 as an independent consultancy firm that analyses and monitors mispriced risks in financial markets in the USA, UK and the EU. This ranges from political risks (such as those related to Brexit, the USA, China and Russia) to structural market instabilities (such as those created by bank failures or by the derivative markets).
David Osman of IRF is joined by Jonathan Wilmot of Wilmot ML.
In this podcast, Jonathan Wilmot discusses the future development of artificial intelligence with particular reference to the USA, China and the broader Macro implications. He then assesses President Trump’s agenda for his second term and notes that Trump is “an old man in a big hurry”. This is creating some uncertainties, not least the potential for high tariffs to cause some economic and financial disruption. Jonathan reviews the outlook for US economic growth, inflation and interest rates. He assesses the ramifications for the bond and stock markets, before concluding with an assessment of where we are in relation to his analysis of the long-term trends and cycles over the past two centuries.
Jonathan Wilmot is a former FX Strategist at Bank of America, Fixed Income Strategist at Merrill Lynch and Chief Global Strategist at Credit Suisse. He has been described as “one of the brightest minds on Wall Street”. In 2017 Jonathan established his own Macro-research boutique and AI investment start up. Wilmot ML is the research arm of XAI Asset Management. Their primary focus is on the policy and market implications of the cycle in global growth and risk appetite, as well as the drivers of long-term structural change in the world economy and geopolitics.
In this podcast Ron William of RW Advisory discusses the cyclical trends and other factors that will be having an impact on the global financial markets in 2025 and beyond. Ron assesses the investment implications for the currency, bond, equity and commodity markets. In doing so, he highlights some key non-consensus views.
In the currency markets,Ron points out the key support levels for the US dollar trade weighted index (DXY) and discusses the outlook for the dollar’s main cross rates with the euro, sterling and the Japanese yen.
In the bond markets, Ron discusses the potential for US and UK interest rates to experience a prolonged “higher-for-longer” period, which would rhyme with the pattern in the 1970s. He then discusses the upside potential and asymmetric cyclical downside risks in the US, UK and other key stock markets.
Ron concludes with an assessment of the prospects for gold and some of the other important commodities with reference to the longer run Kondratieff wave and the shorter cyclical trends, including those influencing the main cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin.
David Osman of the IRF is joined by Jeffrey Christian, the founder and managing partner of the CPM Group.
Jeffrey Christian has been a prominent analyst and advisor on the commodities markets since the 1970s, with work spanning precious metals, energy markets, base metals, the agricultural markets and economic analysis. In this podcast Jeffrey provides a wide-ranging rundown on the outlook for commodity investment in 2025. He starts with an assessment of the relative prospects for the prices of gold, silver and the platinum group of metals.
In the energy sector, Jeffrey considers the various factors that make the outlook for crude oil prices very uncertain this year, not least because potential developments in the Ukraine, in the Middle East and with US foreign policies. He expects oil prices to remain relatively high, but possibly with a slight downside bias, given the risk of a global economic recession commencing later this year or in 2026. Jeffrey then highlights his preferred commodities and concerns in the base metals sector and the agricultural markets.
In conclusion, Jeffrey discusses the factors that are impacting on the flow of funds into the commodities sector and explains why he believes that global asset allocators should have an overweight position in commodities in a multi-asset portfolio for 2025.
Founded in 1986, the CPM Group is an independent commodities research, consulting, asset management and investment banking firm that provides comprehensive research, analysis, and advisory services. The CPM Group is also known for its overall economic analysis of the commodities markets and its expertise in financial engineering.
David Osman of IRF is joined by Sharmila Whelan, the Founder of Westbourne Research.
----more----
In this podcast, Sharmila Whelan explains the business cycle foundations of her investment strategy and global asset allocation guidelines. She discusses the potential impact of the Trump 2.0 Administration on US domestic and foreign policies. Sharmila then assesses the outlook for world public debt in the next 5 years, and explains what this could mean for government and corporate bond markets. Focusing next on Asia, she discusses some of the key aspects of the outlook for the economies and financial markets in Japan, India, China and Taiwan.
Sharmila Whelan is a very experienced global geopolitical-macro strategist, who has been advising buy-side clients on multi-asset investment strategies and asset allocations for nearly three decades. Sharmila has held prominent roles for leading firms in London and Hong Kong, including Merryll Lynch/Bank of America, CLSA, BP and Altheia Capital. She has also counselled various governmental bodies and is a frequent contributor to the financial media, including Bloomberg, the BBC and CNBC.
Westbourne Research is a global macroeconomic, geopolitical, policy forecasting and strategic advisory consultancy, which is based in London.
David Osman of IRF is joined by Paul Cavey, the Founder of East Asia Econ.
----more----
In this podcast, Paul Cavey discusses the various cyclical, geopolitical, political and structural factors that are influencing the economic outlook for China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Paul assesses how the policies of the Trump 2.0 Administration could impact on the East Asian region. He compares the situation now to that in the mid-1980s at the time of the Plaza Accord currency agreement. Paul explains what is likely to be different in 2025, with particular reference to the outlook for interest rates and the currency exchange rates versus the US dollar. Paul concludes with an assessment of some of the longer-term demographic and technological trends that are influencing the region.
Paul Cavey has been analysing the North East Asian Economies, with a particular focus on China, for over 25 years. He was the Chief Regional Economist at several leading firms, notably the Economist Intelligence Unit, Macquarie Securities and Wellington Management. East Asia Econ provides high-quality analysis of macro and market issues in China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan.
David Osman of the IRF is joined by James Lucier, the Co-Founder and Managing Director of Capital Alpha Partners.
----more----
In this podcast, James Lucier discusses the quality of the appointments that president-elect Donald Trump is making for his next administration that begins on 20th January 2025. James then assesses the outlook for fiscal, monetary, trade and regulatory policies in the next two years, ahead of the mid-term congressional elections in November 2026. He also discusses what these policies might mean for US economy and the dollar. James concludes with an assessment of the geopolitical outlook for US foreign policy in a dangerous world.
Capital Alpha Partners is a leading provider of American strategic policy research and political forecasting, which was founded in 2007 and is based in Washington D.C.
They track US political developments that impact on the economy, global equities, credits and broader portfolios. Their team of very experienced analysts offers situational awareness of Washington – its legislative activity, regulatory processes, judicial crosshairs and political climate – on a macro, sector and subsector basis. They cover a broad spectrum of all the key sectors from Consumers and Energy, to Financials, Health Care, Industrials, Telecoms, Media and Technology.
In this podcast, Callum Thomas of Topdown Charts compares the current global interest rate cycle with the 3 previous ones. He points out what is different this time and what that might mean for the length and depth of this cycle. Callum then assesses the prospects for a reacceleration of economic growth and the associated risk of a resurgence in the rate of inflation. He discusses the implications of higher government bond yields for equity markets and other assets. Callum also compares Trump 2.0 and the current situation with the period in 2016 when Trump was first elected president and notes some important differences from an investment perspective. Callum concludes with an assessment of some of the main actionable risks and opportunities in the financial markets, as well as highlighting his underweight and overweight recommendations for active investors in the multi-asset universe.
----more----
Callum Thomas founded Topdown Charts in 2016, after a distinguished career in multi-asset investment management in New Zealand and Australia. Based in New Zealand, Topdown Charts provides data-driven primary research across a broad global macro and multi-asset universe. A key belief at Topdown Charts is that any factor, and usually multiple factors, should be used in the art of generating investment insights, particularly when extremes are detected e.g. extremes in valuation, emotion / sentiment, positioning, price movement, etc.
Paul Hodges, Founder of Near Normal Consulting draws on over 30 years of experience in the chemicals, energy and IT industries to outline the most likely scenarios in the wake of the recent US Presidential election, asking to what extent Donald Trump will be able to implement his stated agenda given the secular forces at work in the global economy.
----more----
Hodges sets the scene through his analysis of how demographic trends will impact supply and demand through the major developed economies, along with the major secular changes facing key industries such as chemicals and energy.
Against a backdrop of widespread overcapacity and declining demand, Trump's proposals for tariffs even if only partially implemented, will accelerate the reversion to 'local for local' supply chains with unpredictable consequences for investors, who are already grappling with very high levels of valuations, most notably in the US equity market.
Brian highlighted significant concerns about the Chinese economy, emphasising that its investment-led growth model is collapsing, with a real estate crisis leading to multi-trillion-dollar losses and debt deflation risks. He expressed scepticism about the effectiveness of anticipated stimulus measures, noting that while they may provide temporary support, they are unlikely to fundamentally change the economic trajectory. Brian pointed out structural issues such as unsustainable debt levels, reliance on central planning, and weak profit growth, making Chinese equities unattractive. He concluded that without meaningful policy changes or abandoning the currency peg, China faces prolonged economic stagnation, akin to Japan's deflationary period, and recommended caution in investing in Chinese markets.
Helen Thomas of Blonde Money presents a three-part analysis of Rachel Reeves’ budget approach, focusing on her ideological foundations, probable budget content, and projected market impact. Thomas examines Reeves’ underlying ideology, shaped by a socialist perspective highlighted in her Mais lecture, where Reeves critiques modern capitalism's failure to enhance growth, democratic engagement, and living standards. Reeves’ outlook distances her from Tony Blair's New Labour approach, which she deems insufficiently bold in addressing labour market insecurity. As a result, her budget framework aims for broader structural change while appeasing both the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and Labour’s diverse coalition.
We hosted a group call on “Investing in Emerging Markets” with Manoj Pradhan, Talking Heads Macro and Jon Anderson, Emerging Advisors Group and JP Smith. JP kicked off the session by advocating for nuanced investment strategies and skilled active management rather than viewing EMs as a single asset class. Manoj argued that significant stress often drives reform, as seen in India. He highlighted Brazil's resilience and identified specific opportunities in India, Indonesia, and South Africa, cautioning against blanket investment strategies. Jon noted that while China’s GDP growth has been substantial, equity returns remain low due to share dilution. He highlighted potential opportunities from excessive domestic liquidity, framing China as a volatile, high-reward market amidst a challenging macroeconomic backdrop.
In this podcast Tobias Harris of Japan Foresight discusses the political situation in Japan and the potential impact of the new Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishida. Tobias then considers the various geopolitical concerns that Japan faces in the Northeast Asian region and the wider world. In particular, he assesses the potential impact of sharply higher crude oil prices on the Japanese economy if the military conflict in the Middle East escalates further. Tobias also reviews the scope for the Japanese government to adjust economic policy, with reference to both the monetary and fiscal policy outlook. In addition, he assesses the demographic trends that are impacting on the longer-term outlook for the economy and Japanese society.
In this podcast Diana Choyleva explains the reasons for her contrarian call on the near-term outlook for the Chinese currency. She discusses the deep-seated problems in the Chinese economy, particularly those in the property sector, and assesses the overall effectiveness of the government’s economic policies. In addition, Diana highlights the geopolitical factors that are now hampering China’s economic development, not least the threat of potential military action against the neighbouring island of Taiwan. She also assesses the investment opportunities in the Chinese bond and stock markets, particularly from the viewpoint of international investors in what is becoming a more bifurcated world. In conclusion Diana considers how the economic developments in China are impacting on the rest of the world, especially with respect to the global commodity markets.
Track record page - https://bit.ly/4gcJJ60
Diana’s X profile – https://bit.ly/3X7pKgB
In this podcast Andrew Hunt discusses in detail the key underlying monetary trends in the main Western economies and explains why he expects a new era of lower interest rates and greater currency volatility as the post-Plaza world crumbles. After an assessment of the outlook for the US economy and financial markets, Andrew considers the deep-seated problems in the Chinese economy and how these will impact on the rest of the world. In Europe, Andrew reviews the diverse economic factors in various countries and assesses the implications for the conduct of monetary policy by the ECB and by the Bank of England.
Andrew Hunt is a former Chief International Economist at Dresdner RCM Global Investors. In 2001 he set up his own company, Andrew Hunt Economics, to provide economic commentary and insight on the major issues of the day to hedge funds, mainstream asset managers, family offices, non-financial companies and the management of major banks.
In this podcast Shamil Ismail discusses how the rapidly evolving demographic trends will impact on global financial markets. He points out that the strong growth of the global population over the past century provided a firm underpin for market growth. Shamil explains how these demographic trends are changing as some countries’ populations are decreasing and there is a rising proportion of older people (who consume less). Several major markets – including China, Japan, Italy, Germany and South Korea – have ageing and declining populations already. According to Shamil, these demographic shifts will have a significant impact on investment performance as demand weakens and wage inflation rises. He also highlights where he sees the most attractive investment opportunities from a demographic perspective.
Primaresearch provides demographic analysis on investment opportunities globally. Their standardised demographic risk measure allows investors to compare these risks across companies and sectors. Primaresearch also provides fundamental, bottom-up research on consumer-facing companies in South Africa.
David Osman of IRF is joined by Ron William, the Founder of RW Advisory.
----more----
Ron William is a market strategist with over 20 years of experience producing macro research and trading strategies for leading economic research and institutional firms.
In this podcast Ron reviews the performance of the global financial markets in the first half of 2024 and discusses the outlook for the second half of this year. In the currency markets, he explains that the dollar’s trade-weighted index is at a critical level and discusses some of the key risk factors. With respect to the outlook for US and UK interest rates and bond yields, Ron’s cyclical analysis points to a prolonged period of ‘higher-for-longer’ rolling volatility, which will rhyme with the pattern in the 1970s. In addition, he points out that the US stock market has shown signs of irrational exuberance and in the near term is vulnerable to “a triple whammy of headwinds”. In the UK, the FTSE 100 Index is seen as being rangebound between 8100 – 8300 with upside potential, but perhaps more so for the FTSE 250 Index. Other markets that look particularly interesting include China and Japan. Ron also identifies some of his preferred opportunities in the commodity markets, including gold and silver.
RW Advisory specialises in blended, top-down, semi-discretionary analysis, driven by cycles and by proprietary timing models, which use both quantitative and qualitative techniques. Ron uses the latest techniques in behavioural/risk assessment modelling, peak-performance, neuro/body science and stress response management, including mindfulness and coherence training, supported by his market strategies.
In this podcast Peter Warburton, the founder of Economic Perspectives, discusses the outlook for global inflation and the limited scope for action by the major central banks in the US, EU, UK and Japan. Peter also highlights his concerns about the conduct of fiscal policy in several countries since 2019. In doing so, he outlines his contrarian view on financial stability as a constraint on central bank actions in a more fragile financial environment. In addition, Peter assesses the probable impact of these various monetary policy decisions on the currency and other financial markets in the next 6 – 18 months.
Peter Warburton has a long and distinguished career as a leading economist in the financial sector, previously working for top firms, including Robert Fleming and Lehman Brothers. He has been a member of the IEA’s “Shadow Monetary Policy Committee” since its inception in 1997. In addition, Peter is Managing Director of Halkin Services, a global risk analysis & asset allocation service.
Founded in 1996, Economic Perspectives is an independent global macro-financial research company that challenges conventional thinking and provides valuable investment insights for professional investors.
David Osman of the IRF is joined by Wolfgang Munchau, the Founder of Eurointelligence.
----more----
In this podcast, Wolfgang Munchau assesses the outlook for Russia’s attritional war on Ukraine from a European perspective and discusses how it is likely to end. Wolfgang notes that the Ukraine war, and other global developments, have had a profound impact on Germany’s export-orientated economy, where the manufacturing sector now needs to evolve and adapt to changing geopolitical and technological circumstances. He points out that these factors are hampering the growth potential in Germany and across the EU.
Wolfgang then considers both the successes and the failures of the Euro single currency over the past 25 years. Looking forward, he indicates how the Euro is likely to perform from hereon in conjunction with the probable stance of the ECB’s monetary policy. Wolfgang also assesses what is at stake from the result of this year’s elections to the European parliament. In addition, he highlights the investment opportunities in Europe’s venture capital sector, but warns against investing in some of the large established companies in the automobile and chemical sectors.
Wolfgang Munchau founded Eurointelligence in 2006 and is widely considered one of the world’s foremost experts on the Eurozone. Eurointelligence provides a specialist service for news and analysis of the EU and eurozone in a global context. Their flagship product, Eurointelligence Professional, offers filtered and time-saving access to important information from a wide network of national and international sources.
In 2020, Manoj Pradhan and Charles Goodhart produced a very influential book, which was entitled: “The Great Demographic Reversal – Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality and an Inflation Revival”. In their book they predicted that in the medium-term inflation would take off and that interest rates would increase in response to secular trends, such as ageing societies and deglobalisation. They argued that this revival of inflation would not be transitory.
----more----
In this podcast, Manoj Pradhan assesses the importance of deglobalisation, supply chain constraints, labour shortages, productivity trends, A.I. and demographics for the inflation outlook. Manoj then discusses the extent to which these inflationary factors are coming into play in 2024-2025. He considers what this means for fiscal policies, monetary policies and for economic growth in the G7 economies in the longer run. Manoj discusses the implications for the financial markets in several of the main advanced economies and emerging markets. He concludes with an assessment of some of the best investment opportunities in the currency, bond and equity markets, as well as pointing out what he would avoid at present.
Talking Heads Macro (THM) was established in 2016 by Manoj and his Co-Founder, Charles Goodhart, the renowned former member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee and Professor at the London School of Economics. Using an outstanding mix of applied and academic thinking, their unique framework lets them develop perspectives on asset prices that traditional research completely misses. THM generates macroeconomic trade recommendations on a 6-12-month horizon by showing how current developments fit into longer-term themes.
David Osman of the IRF is joined by David Metzner and Chris Czerwinski of ACG Analytics.
----more----
ACG Analytics is an independent research firm that translates public policy for investment fund managers and analysts. Their research focuses on specific policy issues and actions in the United States, the European Union, Asia and Latin America. They anticipate how government policies in key markets may impact on investor strategies.
In this podcast David Metzner and Chris Czerwinski discuss the prospects for the US economy in the run-up to the US presidential and congressional elections in early November. They point out that the stimulative fiscal policy and potentially lower interest rates should support economic activity this year, but there is no feel-good factor about the US economy in the way that there was before the global Covid pandemic.
They highlight the key policy differences between the Democrats and the Republicans and emphasise the importance of the key battleground states in determining the outcome of the US presidential election. Their state-by-state analysis suggests that President Biden could achieve a narrow victory, which could then cause some initial social instability given the fervour of many Trump supporters.
David and Chris then discuss the main economic and geopolitical challenges that the USA will likely face in 2025 and beyond. In conclusion they highlight some of the attractions of the USA from an investment perspective.
JP Smith of the IRF is joined by Nicholas Watson, Managing Director of Teneo Political Risk Advisory, to discuss whether the recently elected President Javier Milei will be able to succeed where his predecessors have failed, namely to implement the necessary measures which would lead to a durable stabilisation of the crisis-stricken Argentinian economy.
----more----
In his assessment, Nicholas discusses the social and political context and draws on a series of meetings from his recent extensive fact-finding visit to Argentina, to incorporate the latest developments and outline the key potential scenarios for the coming months.
Nicholas Watson is a Managing Director at Teneo responsible for coverage of the Spanish-speaking Latin American economies. Teneo is a global CEO advisory firm offering diversified services that include strategic communications, financial advisory, management consulting and risk advisory. Teneo’s geopolitical risk consulting and advisory services target political events and their implications for corporations and financial markets. They identify political drivers that move markets and forecast outcomes and scenarios to help clients incorporate political futures into their strategic planning.
David Osman of the IRF is joined by David Murrin, the Founder of Global Forecaster, who is renowned for the development of unique and effective behavioural models that predict financial markets.
----more----
In this podcast, David Murrin discusses the importance of the Kondratiev (K-wave) commodity super-cycle to the outlook both for inflation and other financial markets. He explains the implications of the K-wave (which is expected to peak in approximately 2030 or 2031) for his “Five Stages of Empire” model and what this means for empires in decline (such as USA and the EU) and empires that are rising (such as China and India). In the next few years, this has substantial inflationary ramifications for commodities, bonds, equities and currencies, particularly the US dollar. He outlines the way that rising geopolitical conflicts could lead to an escalation of the ongoing warfare between autocracies and democracies. This has dramatic consequences for global asset allocation decisions and favours an overweight investment in gold and many other commodities.
David’s long career has been focused on finding deep-seated patterns in history and using them to understand and accurately predict both the geopolitical dynamics and the financial markets.
Global Forecaster provides actionable real-time market analysis combined with a unique geopolitical overview.
David Osman of IRF is joined by Ron William, the Founder of RW Advisory.
----more----
Ron William is a market strategist with over 20 years of experience producing macro research and trading strategies for leading economic research & institutional firms. He specialises in blended, top-down, semi-discretionary analysis, driven by cycles and by his proprietary timing models, which use both quantitative and qualitative techniques.
In this podcast Ron explains why the trade-weighted dollar index (DXY) is likely to depreciate and assesses the outlook for the US currency against the euro, sterling and the Japanese yen. He then discusses the prospects for the government bond markets in the US and UK with reference to the recent trends in 10-year yields and the economic outlook.
With respect to the US stock market, Ron identifies the factors that have caused the US S&P 500 Index to become extremely overbought and discusses the potential for this to continue or unwind in 2024. He points out that the UK FTSE 100 Index is close to the middle of the 7,000 – 8,000 trading range that has been established for several years, however he foresees downside risks that could provide a healthy correction. Ron also discusses the reasons behind the very strong performance of the Japanese stock market and foresees the major uptrend in the Nikkei 225 Index continuing and eventually reaching a new all-time-high above the psychologically important 40,000 level. In conclusion, he discusses the performance of various commodities and highlights the bullish outlook for gold.
RW Advisory specialises in blended, top-down, semi-discretionary analysis, driven by cycles and proprietary timing models, which use both quantitative and qualitative techniques. Ron William is also a behavioural finance expert, trading psychologist and performance coach. He uses the latest techniques in behavioural/risk assessment modelling, peak-performance, neuro/body science and stress response management, including mindfulness and coherence training, supported by his market strategies.
The IRF is joined by Lenka Martinek, Managing Partner at Sustainable Market Strategies (SMS), an ESG consultancy firm that specialises in bespoke Environmental, Social & Governance-related research and investment advice.
----more----
In this podcast Lenka Martinek reviews the performance of ESG investments in 2023 and highlights the influence of global geopolitical and macroeconomic factors on sustainable portfolios. She identifies some of the best and worst ESG investment themes over the past year. Lenka then discusses the limited impact of the recent COP28 annual climate summit meeting, even though she believes that the various consequences of climate change are becoming too big to ignore. In addition, Lenka discusses the various opportunities and risks that she expects to be most important for sustainable strategies and ESG investment portfolios during 2024. In conclusion, Lenka considers the growing importance of thematic investing from a longer term perspective and highlights some of the themes within the ESG space that should continue to do well in the future.
Founded in 2018, Sustainable Market Strategies is an Independent Investment Strategy Research Service that tracks global developments in the ESG and Impact-Investing space. SMS focuses on sustainable investment trends, taking a global, top-down and thematic approach, whilst tailoring their views to global market conditions. SMS publishes forward-looking, independent and actionable investment research. Their expert advice is based on a comprehensive knowledge of ESG megatrends, and how these trends can be useful to better understand the markets and to make profitable investment decisions.
David Osman of the IRF is joined by Brian Pellegrini, the Founder and Senior Analyst of Intertemporal Economics.
----more----
Brian founded Intertemporal Economics in 2018. Previously he worked with Bernard Connolly as a senior analyst at Connolly Insight, where he specialised in geopolitical event risk, monetary policy, labour markets and energy. Prior to Connolly Insight, Brian was employed in various positions across Wall Street, including working with high-growth technology firms raising capital, structuring options trades and valuing asset-backed securities.
Intertemporal Economics uses an in-depth analytical framework, which is based on microeconomic foundations. This provides an understanding of endogenous factors and patterns of human behaviour that cannot be analysed using quantitative techniques alone. The firm’s research focuses on topics affecting economics, interest rates and asset prices in developed markets.
In this podcast, Brian discusses the importance of certain trends in the US labour market and their prospective implications for both inflation and economic growth. He then assesses the troubled outlook for monetary and fiscal policy ahead of the US presidential election next November. Before reviewing the political and geopolitical landscape, he discusses the prospects for the US dollar, the potentially volatile outlook for the bond market and the likely divergent trends in the stock market.
David Osman of the IRF is joined by Jeffrey Christian, the Founder and Managing Partner of the CPM Group.
----more----
Jeffrey has been a prominent analyst and advisor on the commodities markets since the 1970s, with work spanning precious metals, energy markets, base metals, the agricultural markets and economic analysis.
In this podcast Jeff provides a wide-ranging rundown on the outlook for commodity prices in the near term and in the longer run. He assesses the relative prospects for the prices of gold, silver, platinum and palladium.
In the energy sector, Jeff focuses on the various factors influencing the outlook for the prices of crude oil and natural gas. He then highlights his most preferred and least preferred commodities in the base metals sector and the agricultural markets.
In conclusion, Jeff discusses the factors that are impacting on the flow of funds into the commodities sector and explains why this is projected to continue to increase in the longer run from mid-2024 onwards.
Founded in 1986, the CPM Group is an independent commodities research, consulting, asset management and investment banking firm that provides comprehensive research, analysis, and advisory services. The CPM Group is also known for its overall economic analysis of the commodities markets and its expertise in financial engineering.
David Osman of the IRF is joined by Marcos Buscaglia, the Founder of Alberdi Partners.
----more----
In this podcast Marcos discusses the political and economic outlook for various countries in Latin America, including Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Ecuador.
Marcos founded Alberdi Partners in 2016 to provide economic, political and market research services on Latin American countries for institutional investors and corporations. The Alberdi Partners team share in the decision processes of their clients, with close interactions. They produce a combination of deep macro and political analysis with detailed number crunching, including the use of econometric models.
David Osman of the IRF is joined by Ryoji Musha, the Founder of Musha Research.
Ryoji Musha founded Musha Research in 2009 following a long and distinguished career working for leading global investment banks in Japan and the USA since 1973. During that period, he achieved the top-rating for Japan Equity Strategy in the Institutional Investor polls.
In this podcast Ryoji Musha discusses the reasons for the dramatic improvement in the outlook for the Japanese economy. He identifies the importance of the improving competitiveness of the Japanese yen against the US dollar and crucial global geopolitical factors, particularly the troubled US-China relationship, as well as the emerging secular trends in the domestic economy. Ryoji Musha also explains the ongoing changes in the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy stance that will lead to the effective elimination of the yield curve control (YCC) policy and other unconventional monetary policy measures by the end of next year. He also sets out the pathway for economic growth and a sustained return to the BOJ’s 2%pa inflation target. He assesses when and by how much Japanese interest rates are likely to rise in 2024 and what this will mean for the 10-year government bond yield. Ryoji Musha concludes with an assessment of bullish factors driving the strong performance of the Tokyo stock market and foresees a significant increase in the weightings of Japanese equities in global portfolios.
Musha Research was founded in 2009 to provide more direct assistance with financial market analysis and the determination of medium and long-term outlooks. The activities of Musha Research are guided by three principles: adhering to consistent logic; reaching conclusions based on their own beliefs; and using a viewpoint that incorporates both history and a global perspective.
David Osman of IRF is joined by Ron William, the Founder of RW Advisory.
----more----
Ron is a market strategist with over 20 years of experience producing macro research and trading strategies for leading economic research and institutional firms.
In this podcast Ron reviews the performance of the US dollar in the first half of this year and assesses the outlook for the US currency against the euro, sterling, the Japanese yen and the Chinese yuan. Turning next to the main government bond markets, he discusses the macro impact of the longer-term generational trends in three key areas: demographics, the labour market and resources. He also points out that there is likely to be increasing volatility in the short term, but eventually both the US 10-year Treasury yield and the UK 10-year Gilt yield are expected to reach new highs for this cycle.
With respect to the leading stock markets, the US S&P 500 Index has been stronger-than-expected in the first half of this year. However, Ron indicates that the chart is now at a make-or-break level, with other market factors pointing ahead to an asymmetric downside mean reversion risk later this year or in early 2024. In contrast, the UK FTSE 100 Index is close to the middle of the 7,000 – 7,700 trading range that has been established for most of the last three years, but given its components, various headwinds suggest that it is in danger of diverging lower. Ron also discusses the reasons behind the very strong performance of the Japanese stock market and he highlights the attractiveness of various Asian markets. In addition, he discusses the performance of various commodities this year and highlights the bullish outlook for gold.
RW Advisory specialises in blended, top-down, semi-discretionary analysis, driven by cycles and by Ron's proprietary timing models, which use both quantitative and qualitative techniques. Ron is also a behavioural finance expert, trading psychologist and performance coach. He uses the latest techniques in behavioural/risk assessment modelling, peak-performance, neuro/body science and stress response management, including mindfulness and coherence training, supported by his market strategies.
The IRF is joined by Lenka Martinek, Managing Partner at Sustainable Market Strategies (SMS), an ESG consultancy firm that specialises in bespoke environmental, social & governance-related research and investment advice.
----more----
ESG investing has become an essential aspect of the services that many financial institutions provide for their clients. Given the growing popularity of ethical investments, environmental, social and governance considerations will inevitably become a more important part of portfolio investment decisions in the future. In this podcast Lenka Martinek discusses the evolving geopolitical factors that are influencing the prospects for ESG investments.
Lenka explains how the Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to a re-evaluation of the global defence industry’s ESG credentials and highlights those factors that can be considered more acceptable, or totally unacceptable, from an ESG perspective. With respect to the solar industry, Lenka highlights the various issues related to China’s very poor ESG rating and identifies alternative ways to invest in the renewable energy sector. She also highlights some of the positive and negative factors for ESG investors in the water resources sector.
On a broader perspective, Lenka explains the different approaches to ESG investing in both relative and absolute terms. She notes the importance of the relative performance of the oil sector and the tech sector. In conclusion, Lenka highlights the advantages that come from having a comprehensive knowledge of ESG megatrends, and she indicates how SMS can evaluate these trends to better understand the markets and to make profitable investment decisions.
Founded in 2018, Sustainable Market Strategies is an independent investment strategy research service that tracks global developments in the ESG and Impact-Investing space. Also known by the firm’s initials, SMS publishes forward-looking, independent and actionable investment research. The SMS team has a total of over 50 years of experience in capital markets, finance, economics, policy, academic research and sustainable investing. They look at sustainable investing trends, taking a global, top-down and thematic approach, and tailor their views to global market conditions.
In conversation with the IRF's JP Smith, Mark Latham Founder and CEO of Commodity Intelligence explains how his news story driven AI process helps the team to identify prevailing narratives in the market and potential inflection points.
----more---- Over the past three years this approach has led to some very timely calls, including a relatively bearish stance on the energy complex in 2022 prior to the big falls in the prices of oil and natural gas.
Here, Mark lays out the results of his current analysis and summarises his views in the wake of the recent correction across a wide range of commodity markets, including a deep dive into the oil and gas markets and how alternative energy will lead to negative cost curves across a range of key manufacturing industries.
This latest episode of the IRF Podcast looks at the outlook for the Turkish economy and financial assets in the wake of Turkey's 2023 first-round election.
----more----
IRF Senior Advisor, JP Smith hosts Michael Harris, Founder of Cribstone Strategic Macro, who's been ranked number one strategist for Turkey thirteen times.
Mike outlines the probable outcome for the forthcoming second round, likely future policy developments and identifies the key scenarios for the Turkish Lira and equity market, paying particular attention to the possibility of further destabilising capital flight and dollarisation of the domestic economy.
Mike and JP also discuss Erdogan's balancing act between Russia and the West with regard to foreign policy and the potential ways that might shift in response to any future economic and/or financial turbulence.
The IRF is joined by Brian Pellegrini, the Founder of Intertemporal Economics.
----more----
In this podcast Brian Pellegrini discusses the political factors that influence the recurring problems relating to Congress passing legislation to raise the US debt ceiling. Brian reflects on the various fiscal, monetary and macro-prudential policy dilemmas associated with the recent spike in inflationary pressures, the impact of higher interest rates and the consequent financial instability in the financial sector due, in part, to several regional bank failures.
Given the potential problems in the bond market, he expects the Fed to take steps towards a policy of yield curve control and to start acting as the market maker of first resort. Brian also explains why he predicts that the US economy will be in the midst of another inflationary cycle by mid-2024.
As a result, Brian expects the US stock market to follow a winding path. He foresees a strong outperformance by financials in the next 3 – 6 months, as inflationary fears fall on false hopes of a lasting return to a low inflation environment. He thinks that the year ahead will therefore be a period of volatility with a strong divergence between the performance of different stock market sectors.
In addition, Brian anticipates that there will be a greater degree of cooperation amongst the major central banks in the near term that would have some implications for the US dollar. In the longer term, he sees two major political challenges that will have an influence on the US dollar: i) demographic trends and their prospective impact on the US labour market; ii) the potential global division between the West and other parts of the world in the East and the Global South.
Brian Pellegrini is the Founder of Intertemporal Economics and the firm’s Senior Analyst. Brian founded Intertemporal Economics in 2018, previously he worked with Bernard Connolly as a senior analyst at Connolly Insight, where he specialized in Geopolitical Event risk, Monetary Policy, Labour Markets and Energy. Prior to Connolly Insight, Brian was employed in various positions across Wall Street, including working with high-growth technology firms raising capital, structuring options trades and valuing asset-backed securities. Brian has an MBA from Columbia University, a Master of Science in Finance from North-Eastern University and a Bachelor of Science in Computer Science from Columbia University. He is also a CFA charter holder.
Intertemporal Economics uses an in-depth analytical framework, which is based on microeconomic foundations. This allows an understanding of endogenous factors and patterns of human behaviour that cannot be analysed using quantitative techniques alone. The firm’s research focuses on topics affecting economics, interest rates and asset prices in developed and emerging markets.
The IRF is joined by Helen Thomas, the Founder & CEO of Blonde Money.
----more----
In this podcast Helen reflects on Rishi Sunak’s premiership so far and assesses the prospects for UK economy and financial markets in the year ahead. She discusses the outlook for economic growth, inflation and monetary policy.
Helen compares the outlook for interest rates and government bond yields in the US and the UK, noting key differences between the policies of the US Fed and those of the Bank of England. She concludes with an assessment of the differing prospects for Wall Street and the London stock market in an era of numerous international uncertainties and potential financial instabilities.
Helen has a distinguished career in both finance and politics. She was an adviser to the former Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne. She also created the Financial Markets Reform Programme for the think tank, Policy Exchange.
Founded in 2014, Blonde Money is an independent consultancy firm that analyses and monitors mispriced risks in financial markets in the USA, UK and EU.
JP Smith of the IRF is joined by Patrick Perret-Green, the Founder of PPG Macro.
----more----
In this podcast Patrick argues that the impact of the problems in the banking sector is likely to be highly disinflationary as the contraction in credit creation outweighs the creation of money by the US Fed. Whilst the stock of money supply remains extremely high, the flow is contracting at a rate unseen in the lifetime of most market participants.
Moreover, the expectation that high inflation is here to stay has become consensus, partly on the back of aging demographics pushing up consumption relative to savings, a narrative that Patrick does not buy into given Japan's experience over the past thirty years. Given the lags built into the inflation indices, especially with regard to shelter and the prospects for a marked weakening in the labour market as the global economy slows, investors will begin to focus on the secular disinflationary forces.
Outside the US, Patrick is especially concerned about China where the capital-intensive growth model has run out of steam and the money created by the PBOC will be used to prop up the property market and especially the highly indebted local government financing vehicles.
Given this backdrop, Patrick advocates a cautious and pragmatic approach to asset allocation favouring longer dated sovereign credit and equities that offer a defensive earnings profile and sustainable yield. Because of his pessimistic outlook for economic growth, he would underweight cyclical sectors, most commodities and emerging markets, the latter being further penalised by the likelihood of a stronger dollar as part of the global flight to perceived safer havens. Property and private equity are also very vulnerable to the process of price discovery and retrenchment by the banking sector.
David Osman of IRF is joined by Ben Rabidoux, the Founder of North Cove Advisors.
----more----
They discuss the importance of the housing sector as a driver of consumer spending and broader economic growth in Canada. The Canadian government is trying to achieve a soft-landing with the central bank providing an appropriate degree of monetary tightening to curb inflation without creating a recession. According to the Bank of Canada, higher interest rates are working their way through an overheated economy.
Canadians are feeling the pinch of high inflation and concern about an economic slowdown. Ben points out the risks associated with a tightening monetary policy stance and a sharp slowdown in discretionary consumer spending. He identifies the early signs of cracks in consumer credit, including rising insolvencies and deteriorating credit card trends.
In the housing sector, affordability concerns are continuing to weigh on demand and put downward pressure on house prices. Ben compares the highly-leveraged state of Canadian consumers with their US peers. Given the prospect of higher US interest rates this year, Ben highlights the risks that this poses for the conduct of monetary policy in Canada and the implications for the Canadian dollar.
North Cove Advisors is a boutique research firm that is exclusively focused on Canadian macroeconomic coverage with a strong focus on housing, household credit and consumer spending trends.
David Osman of IRF is joined by Michael Churchill, the founder of Churchill Research.
----more----
In this podcast Michael discusses the economic and financial implications of the worst bond yield inversion for 40 years. He argues that the curve inversion is saying that the Fed is overdoing it.
Historically, that is a recession predictor – albeit with a long lead time. But so far other indicators are not corroborating a near-term deflationary recession. He points out that the 2020-21 helicopter drop was of world-historical enormity – and now it’s being worked off. This has created all kinds of uncertainties and risks. He notes that US M2 growth is negative YoY, but still 38% above pre-COVID levels. This is a classic conflict between level and rate of change. The rate of change is weak, but the level is still high. He observes that over enough time, the rate of change always wins.
Michael emphasizes that the 2020-21 M2 boom was a one-off, but people misinterpret it as systemic. He sees that as being very dangerous. The big risk is that the Fed keeps hiking until lagging indicators give it the slowdown it wants (particularly rising unemployment). The hotter the economy runs in the meantime, the bigger the risk of Fed overshoot.
Michael points out that the “option value” of holding cash is rising given the obvious risk of Fed error. He notes that the gold price is tracking the 12-month Fed Funds future (inverted) tick for tick. Put differently, the dollar is following funds-rate expectations very closely. He finds it bizarre that the 350 bp rise in TIPS yields hasn’t pulled gold down much further and interprets this to mean that money is not as tight as the inverted yield curve suggests. With respect to his various portfolios, Michael explains why he has been adding to his weighting in Japan and discusses the adjustments he has recently made to his weightings in various sectors, including airlines, processed goods and raw materials.
Churchill Research analyses the world from both the top-down and the bottom-up. The first cut is macro, using their supply-side economic model to identify countries and sectors that are likely to outperform or underperform. Next, they apply their bottom-up analysis, looking for interesting individual companies within targeted countries and sectors. These stocks are included in their various portfolios.
IRF represents high-quality and differentiated Independent Research and Alternative Data Providers.
----more----
This is the fifth episode of the IRF Research and Markets Podcast series.
In this edition, experienced market practitioner JP Smith reviews the analysis and views of some key IRF Providers focusing on the lively debate over US inflation and the relationship with commodity prices, bonds and equity markets, with a particular emphasis on emerging market equities and the extent to which the consensus bullish view is consistent with the outlook for the key country constituents.
IRF Providers mentioned in this podcast include: CrossBorder Capital, Suttle Economics, PPG Macro, WilmotML, Talking Heads Macro, Minack Advisors, CHA-AM Advisors, Independent Strategy, PRC Macro, Copley Fund Research, Emerging Advisors Group, Alberdi Partners, Greenmantle.
David Osman of IRF is joined by David Ranson, the president of HCWE & Co. for the latest episode of the IRF Podcast. Here David Ranson discusses the misunderstood causes of inflation and the consequent undermining of sound money as a store value. He highlights the importance of the quality of money, as opposed to the quantity.
----more----
David also explains why the 30-year forward price of gold is the best way to assess the quality of money and he argues that the current burst of inflation was not generally expected because the cause has not been diagnosed correctly. His empirical analysis has major implications for the conduct of monetary policy and the impact of those central bank policies on an economy’s performance.
David points out that the historical evidence does not support the belief that raising interest rates to control inflation is effective. He concludes that the present policies being pursued by the US Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world are not only harmful, but also ineffective when it comes to preventing inflation in the medium to longer run. Consequently, he is very bearish about inflation worldwide.
David Ranson does not expect a recession this year, but he does expect US economic growth to remain very slow. He foresees waves of stubborn inflation in the years ahead, with interest rates rising erratically, if the conduct of US monetary policy does not change. David argues that to control inflation the general public must have confidence that the value of the money unit will be preserved. Hence, he believes that the floating US dollar needs to be anchored to something stable, such as gold.
David has a Doctorate in Business Economics from the University of Chicago Business School.
HCWE & Co. has a clientele of institutional investors, hedge funds and family offices throughout North America and Europe. Over the years, HCWE & Co. has demonstrated a successful track record, anticipating major economic and asset market moves in both the US and elsewhere.
IRF represents high-quality and differentiated Independent Research and Alternative Data Providers. This is the fourth episode of the IRF Research and Markets Podcast series, available on Apple, Spotify and Google.
----more----
In this edition, JP reviews the analysis and views of some key IRF Providers focusing on the outlook for energy prices, bonds and equities in the light of recent developments in China and the conflict between Russia and the Ukraine.
This episode includes: CrossBorder Capital, Talking Heads Macro, The pH Report, Emerging Advisors Group, China Macro, Global Forecaster, Independent Strategy, Greenmantle, Eurointelligence, CHA-AM Advisors, Totem Macro, Variant Perceptions and Copley Fund Research.
David Osman of the IRF is joined by Ron William, the Founder of RW Advisory to discuss the performance of the US dollar in 2022 and indicate how he expects it to perform against other major currencies in 2023.
----more----
Ron compares the similar trends in the US and UK government bond markets and points out the implications for both interest rates and bond yields in 2023.
With respect to the world’s major stock markets, Ron contrasts the remarkably different trends in the US S&P 500 Index and the UK FTSE 100 Index and assesses how both markets could perform in 2023. With regard to the Emerging Markets, he highlights two of the stock markets that are likely to do well in 2023. Ron also assesses the trend in the gold price and compares the prospects for gold in 2023 with the outlook for the price of silver.
Looking further ahead, Ron discusses the importance of the 45-60 year Kondratieff Cycle. He explains that we are now in the late stage of the K-wave cycle and points out how this is expected to influence the world’s financial markets in the years ahead.
RW Advisory specialises in blended, top-down, semi-discretionary analysis, driven by cycles and by proprietary timing models. Ron is a market strategist with over 20 years of experience producing macro research and trading strategies for leading economic research and institutional firms.
David Osman of the IRF is joined by Ryoji Musha, the Founder of Musha Research. Musha Research was founded in 2009 following Ryoji Musha's long and distinguished career working for leading global investment banks in Japan and the USA since 1973. During that period, he achieved the top-rating for Japan Equity Strategy in the Institutional Investor polls.
----more----
This podcast explores why the Japanese economy is beginning to emerge from the torpor of the post-1990 crash that has dogged the country for over three decades. In 2022 a weaker yen has transformed Japan’s international competitive position with profound implications for Japan’s economy, economic policy and corporate strategy. Also highlighted is the importance of longer term global geopolitical factors, particularly the evolution of Japan’s trading relationship with the USA and the emergence of the Chinese economy as a major player on the world stage.
Ryoji Musha assesses the outlook for Japan’s monetary policy and discusses the future direction of yield curve control and Japan’s ultra-low interest rates. He points out the beneficial effects of a moderately weaker yen for Japan’s domestic demand, production of exports and the relocation of factories from abroad. A cheaper yen is also encouraging more tourists to visit Japan. In addition, he believes that Japanese equities are now extremely undervalued, thereby potentially encouraging more corporate share buybacks.
Musha Research was founded in 2009 to provide more direct assistance with financial market analysis and determination of medium and long-term outlooks. The activities of Musha Research are guided by three principles: adhering to consistent logic; reaching conclusions based on their own beliefs; and using a viewpoint that incorporates both history and a global perspective.
David Osman of the IRF is joined by Jeffrey Christian, the Founder and Managing Partner of the CPM Group.
----more----
Jeffrey Christian has been a prominent analyst and advisor on the commodities markets since the 1970s with work spanning precious metals, energy markets, base metals, the agricultural markets and economic analysis. In this podcast Jeffrey provides a wide-ranging rundown on the outlook for commodities in 2023. He assesses the relative prospects for the prices of gold and silver, as well as the differing outlook for the prices of platinum and palladium. In the energy sector, Jeff focuses on the various factors influencing the prices of crude oil and natural gas. He then assesses the demand and supply factors that will impact on the prices of various base metals, including aluminium, copper, lead and nickel. In the agricultural markets, Jeff sets out his views on the prospects for the prices of several soft commodities, including corn, soybean, wheat, beef, pork and coffee. In addition, Jeff discusses the flow of funds into the commodities sector and explains why he expects global asset allocators to invest a higher proportion of their funds in commodities in the years ahead.
Founded in 1986, the CPM Group is an independent commodities research, consulting, asset management and investment banking firm that provides comprehensive research, analysis and advisory services.
IRF represents high-quality and differentiated Independent Research and Alternative Data Providers. This is the third episode of the IRF Research and Markets Podcast series, available on Apple, Spotify and Google.
----more----
In this edition experienced market practitioner JP Smith examines the analysis and views of the IRF's best-in-class Independent Research Providers on the outlook for inflation, China, emerging markets and the Russia/Ukraine conflict.
JP outlines the shift in the market environment compared with the post-GFC period from 2009 to 2020 and suggests strategies for investors to preserve the real value of their assets.
Independent Research Providers mentioned in this episode include: Aitken Advisors, Minack Advisors, Talking Heads Macro, Andrew Hunt Economics, Teneo, J Capital Research, Cross Border Capital, The pH Report, Independent Strategy, Alef Advisory, Totem Macro and Emerging Advisors Group.
In this latest episode of the IRF Podcast series, available on Apple, Spotify and Google, JP Smith of the IRF is joined by Peter Warburton, Founder of Economic Perspectives, to discuss the structural outlook for the UK economy in the wake of the recent budget.
----more----
Economic Perspectives take an eclectic approach to the inflation outlook, considering political and socio-economic factors alongside macroeconomic drivers, building on the analysis of the development of global debt markets laid out in Peter's book 'Debt and Delusion'.
In this podcast, Peter spells out how policy and forecasting errors by the UK government, Bank of England and the Office for Budgetary Responsibility are primarily responsible for high inflation, low growth and the rising budget deficit. He explains his scepticism that the BOE will be able to take the sort of measures necessary to bring inflation even close to the target level but also provocatively argues that inflation will help to bring about a necessary generational and social redistribution of resources and pave the way for a regeneration of the Uk economy and society over the medium term.
Finally, Peter and JP discuss the international context and the implications of the Economic Perspectives hypothesis for asset allocation and the ability of investors to preserve the value of their wealth in real terms in this challenging environment.
JP Smith of the IRF is joined by Anne Stevenson-Yang co-founder and CEO of J Capital Research to discuss the political and economic outlook in China.
----more----
J Capital combines both top-down macro and bottom-up industry and company specific analysis in the research and consultancy service for institutional investors. In this podcast, Anne discusses the prospects for Covid reopening in the context of Beijing's ongoing shift towards more authoritarian and autarkic policies. She outlines the case for continuing slow growth, pours cold water over the liklihood of a rebalancing towards consumer spending and explains why she doubts there will be a Minsky Moment for the Chinese economy. Anne and JP debate the prospects for commodity markets in the light of the China slowdown and also whether investors should adopt a contrarian more positive approach towards Chinese equities, which have underperformed the majority of their peers in both emerging and developed markets over the past eighteen months.
David Osman of the IRF is joined by Zek Ozturk, the founder of iRes Independent Financial Research & Advisory.
----more----
What does the future hold for Turkish politics, the economy and the financial markets? In a world that has become more divided between East and West, Turkey’s position at the crossroads of Europe and Asia gives it even greater importance in both economic and geopolitical terms. With a population of over 84 million people and a GDP per capita of over US$8,000, Turkey has enormous emerging market potential. Zek Ozturk has over 25 years of top-quality experience of the financial markets in Turkey and in other emerging economies.
In this podcast, he explains the political trends in Turkey that will dominate the all-important presidential election, which is scheduled to take place in the middle of 2023. He discusses Turkey’s problem with high inflation and how it impacts on the prospects for economic growth. Zek also assesses the outlook for Turkey’s external trade and balance of payments. In addition, he highlights the key factors impacting on the prospects for interest rates, bond yields and the Turkish lira. Zek also considers some of the various attractive opportunities in the stock market.
Founded in 2013, iRes provides thematic research and investment ideas with the combination of in-depth political, macroeconomic, sector and stock analysis. The primary focus of iRes is the Turkish market, however the firm also provides broad strategies for the Emerging Markets, as well as investment assessments on client specific areas of interest on an exclusive basis.
We are delighted to bring you the next episode of IRF's new podcast series, Research and Markets: “Key Developments in Emerging Markets, China and Russia/Ukraine”, hosted by JP Smith.----more----
JP is an experienced market practitioner as former Head of EM Equity & Chief Strategist at Pictet and Equity Strategist at Deutsche Bank. This podcast series aims to provide greater awareness around IRF's Independent Research Providers by generating topical and relevant content. JP highlights research and draws on material from publicly available news sources, social media, and other podcasts to monitor the shifting debates and narratives that move markets. The focus is on medium and long-term thematic issues rather than day to day trading.
In episode two JP draws on the work of best-in-class IRF Research Providers to review three key issues in emerging markets, namely the impact of the strong US dollar on EM economies and financial markets, the medium-term prognosis for China's economy and finally, recent developments in the Russia/Ukraine conflict.
This episode includes the following IRF Providers:
Emerging Advisors Group, Independent Strategy, Cross Border Capital, Greenmantle, Suttle Economics, Andrew Hunt Economics, Totem Macro, Talking Heads Macro, The pH Report, China Beige Book, PRC Macro, Teneo, J Capital, Eurointelligence.
David Osman of the IRF is joined by Manoj Pradhan, the co-founder of Talking Heads Macro.
----more----
In 2019, Manoj Pradhan and Charles Goodhart co-authored a very influential book, entitled: “The Great Demographic Reversal – Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality and an Inflation Revival”. With its focus on longer-term trends, this book sets out important signposts to the demographic, economic and social trends that will be increasingly important in the post-pandemic decades. In their book they predicted that inflation would take off and that interest rates would Increase in response to secular trends, such as ageing societies and deglobalization. They argued that this revival of inflation would not be transitory. Their predictions are proving to be alarmingly accurate. In this podcast, Manoj Pradhan discusses the various drivers of inflation and how they are changing, both in the short term and in the longer run. He assesses the importance of deglobalisation, supply chain constraints, labour shortages, productivity trends and demographics for the inflation outlook. Manoj points out that some inflationary pressures will persist beyond the peak of the current revival. He discusses what this means for economic policy and for economic growth. Manoj concludes with an assessment of the implications for the financial markets in certain advanced economies and emerging markets.
Talking Heads Macro (THM) was established in 2016 by Manoj and his cofounder, Charles Goodhart, the highly-regarded former member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee and Professor at the London School of Economics. Using an outstanding mix of applied and academic thinking, their unique framework lets them develop perspectives on asset prices that traditional research completely misses. THM generates macroeconomic trade recommendations on a 6-12-month horizon by showing how current developments fit into longer-term themes.
The IRF is excited to announce a new podcast series titled ‘Governments and Markets’ hosted by JP Smith, an experienced market practitioner as former Head of EM Equity at Pictet and Sell-Side Strategist at Deutsche. ----more----This podcast aims to provide greater awareness around the IRF's Independent Research Providers by generating topical and relevant content. JP highlights research and draws on material from publicly available news sources, social media, and other podcasts to monitor the shifting debates and narratives that move markets. The focus will be on medium and long term thematic issues rather than day to day trading.
In this first Governments and Markets Podcast JP draws on some of the IRF’s best in class Research Providers to ask whether financial markets are about to undergo another major transition. He notes the increasing tendency of markets to overshoot given the dominance of momentum investors. JP examines three main themes, namely US inflation, the Russia/Ukraine conflict and the slowdown in the Chinese economy, to evaluate the possibilities of an end to the flight to the USD and the prospects for longer duration US bonds to perform well at the expense of global equity markets.
David Osman of the IRF is joined by James Lucier, Managing Director of Capital Alpha Partners, a leading provider of American strategic policy research and political forecasting. James discusses the outlook for the US mid-term congressional elections and how these may impact President Biden’s 4-year term in the run-up to the next US presidential election. He shares with us the prospects for another Biden versus Trump race for the White House in 2024 and considers some of the other younger candidates in the Democrat and Republican parties who may come to the fore. With cost of living and interest rates rising, continuing Covid struggles, strained US-China relations, and Russia’s war on Ukraine, James assesses what all this means for US financial markets in the remainder of this year and in 2023.
----more----
Capital Alpha Partners, founded in 2007 and based in Washington DC, closely monitors and forecasts US political developments, and analyses their impact on the economy and the financial markets. Seven senior analysts - grounded by 175 years of collective professional - provide experienced, sector-based coverage of policy trends, legislative activity, budget data, regulatory processes, and the political climate. As well as coverage at a macro level, sector coverage includes Financials, Energy & Environment, Health care, Telecom & Media, Consumer, Defence and Industrials.
David Osman of the IRF is joined by Leland Miller, the founder & CEO of China Beige Book, an independent advisory firm that was established in 2010.
----more----
Leland Miller is a noted authority on China’s economy and financial system. He is an elected member of the National Committee on US-China Relations, the Economic Club of New York and the Council on Foreign Relations. Leland is also a board member of the Global Interdependence Center and a non-resident Senior Fellow at the Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security at the Atlantic Council.
China Beige Book (CBB) operates its own extensive in-country private data network in China that provides independent economic data to their corporate and financial sector clients, including nearly two dozen of the world’s largest central banks. Every quarter CBB collects private data from surveys of 4,000 executives across 34 industries.
In this podcast, Leland discusses the severe challenges that are facing the Chinese economy today. Using CBB’s proprietary data and analysis, Leland assesses the current state of the mainland economy and explains the policy implications. He also discusses the prospects for Sino-US relations in the run up to the next US presidential election in 2024, with a particular focus on the crucial US-Taiwan relationship and the heightened risk of a clash with China. In addition, Leland explains the poorly understood dynamics of the Chinese stock market, the impact of the ongoing regulatory crackdown on big companies and the investment implications for the year ahead.
David Osman of the IRF is joined by Helen Thomas, the founder & CEO of Blonde Money, an independent consultancy firm that was established in 2014.
----more----
Helen Thomas has had an impressive career in both finance and politics. Helen was an adviser to the former Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne and she also created the Financial Markets Reform Programme for the think tank, Policy Exchange. Previously, Helen has been a partner in the global macro hedge fund, ABD Investment Management and a former Head of Currency Alpha for State Street Global Advisors. The Blonde Money consultancy analyses and monitors the political, economic and financial risks that are mispriced in the financial markets in the US, UK and EU.
Helen assesses the policies of the two contenders challenging to be the next leader of the Conservative Party and the next UK prime minister. She explains how a government led by Liz Truss or Rishi Sunak would differ from the Johnson regime, particularly on the matter of tax cuts. From economic policy to foreign affairs, the next PM will be facing formidable policy challenges. This will complicate the policy choices. Helen points out what all of this will mean for the British Pound and for the UK bond and stock markets.
JP Smith of the IRF is joined by John Ryding of RDQ Economics, a US based macro-economics consultancy which he founded along with former Bear Sterns colleague Rodrigo Dequadros in 2008, to discuss the outlook for the US economy over the coming months.
----more----
John describes the process and approach of RDQ fusing economic history and John and Conrad’s own extensive experience of the relationship between macro-economics and financial markets, with the more classical economic modelling and data-based techniques. This eclectic methodology enabled RDQ to be well ahead of the consensus in forecasting much higher inflation over the past fifteen months and John outlines the reasons behind the Fed’s mistaken belief that inflation would prove transitory and what this implies for the future trajectory of inflation and direction of monetary policy. RDQ remain pessimistic about the Fed’s ability to curb excess demand due to previous policy errors, the overheating labour market and secular trends such as demographics and the reshoring of manufacturing.
RDQ believe that US dollar strength is likely to persist given further tightening of US monetary policy relative to current expectations and the increasingly dire outlook in Europe and China; ’the currency markets can run an awful lot further than one would think’. John is sceptical that tighter monetary policy is fully priced into financial markets, but that commodities and real assets have even greater downside as Fed action slows the global economy. John and JP concur that lower earnings are not yet fully discounted in equities which are likely to remain volatile without any clear direction over the coming months.
David Osman of the IRF is joined by Lane Dusserre, the president of SMI, a global equity market strategy advisory service, which was established in New York in 1962.
----more----
Lane Dusserre is an expert in global investment management, with a long career that has included portfolio management at top European institutions and investment advisory consulting to leading institutions in Europe, Asia and the USA. SMI provides technical research consulting on global equity markets and industry sectors. The analysis predicts the direction, duration and magnitude of equity market trends, both short-term and intermediate-term trends. SMI identifies inflection points using proprietary technical indicators and a deep database of historical indicator behaviour.
Lane discusses the origins of SMI, their proprietary indicators and momentum strategy that are used to assess market conditions and formulate SMI’s predictions. As an example, Lane discusses the NYSE Intermediate Term Indicator (INI), which measures the percentage of stocks with positive momentum in the NYSE Composite. This provides a good measure of both the breadth and momentum of the US equity market with data going back as far as 1972. Lane also explains how SMI generates buy and sell signals, and determines the duration and magnitude of the expected trend.
Using SMI’s proprietary indicators, Lane predicts that the US S&P 500 Index will have 15% upside to the year end. Following on from this positive view for the US stock market, Lane also discusses the intermediate-term outlook for global emerging markets and the prospects for the European equity markets, including the UK FT All Share Index.
David Osman of the IRF is joined by Peter Warburton, the founder of Economic Perspectives, which he established in 1996.
----more----
Peter Warburton discusses the way that the UK cost of living crisis is being compounded by a cost of credit crisis. Peter argues that following the global financial crisis in 2008/09, there has been a prolonged period of financial repression with low interest rates and the suppression of debt default. The impending credit crunch is not only due to rising interest rates, as there are also concerns about the mispricing of credit risks. Hence, with the economy deteriorating, debt defaults will rise. Peter points out that fiscal policy has entered an era of bigger government with stagnating living standards. Looking further afield, he identifies those countries where double-digit inflationary pressures are particularly troubling. Those central banks that have failed to control inflation, like the US Federal Reserve, are considered to be no more than “paper tigers”. Peter concludes by identifying the main implications of the cost of living and credit crises for the financial markets. In the near term, greater inflation, rising interest rates and higher bond yields will have an adverse impact on equity valuations. For the longer term, Peter says there is a multi-dimensional problem confronting asset allocators, who are having to respond to such factors as monetary regime change, deglobalisation and the balkanisation of supply chains, as well as the dynamics of intergenerational wealth and income in an era of elevated inflation.
David Osman of the IRF is joined by David Murrin, founder of Global Forecaster and renowned for the development of unique and effective behavioural models, which when combined with a geopolitical overlay have a most impressive track record at predicting financial markets. David has also authored the highly acclaimed book, Breaking The Code of History, which has striking parallels with the work of Ray Dalio.
----more----
David discusses the importance of the Kondratiev Wave commodity super-cycle on the outlook for inflation and other financial markets. He explains the implications of the K wave for his “Five Stages of Empire” model and the dramatic ramifications, including the growing risks of a World War in the next 5 years as empires collide.
He believes we have entered the doomsday bubble with the stock market peaking in November last year and now on a rapidly accelerating downward spiral with inflation out of control and the Fed out of levers to fight back. Meanwhile expect Putin to take over Ukraine and move towards occupying a NATO country whilst China will go for Taiwan and South Korea. The world is entering a key juncture, investors should be prepared for the worst!
David Osman of the IRF is joined by Barry Knapp, the Managing Partner and Head of Macro & Public Policy Strategy at Ironsides Macroeconomics, which he founded in 2019 and is based in Colorado.----more----
In a world that has been rocked by a global pandemic, supply chain disruptions, an energy crisis and the ramifications of Russia’s atrocious war on Ukraine, the USA has some obvious attractions. Barry Knapp has had a long and distinguished career in the financial sector with a number of leading investment firms. His career has evolved from equity derivatives to principal trading, then equity strategy research, unconstrained fixed income investment and now macroeconomic & public policy strategy. His knowledge of the US economy and US financial markets is arguably second to none. In this podcasts Barry explains why US economic growth and corporate profits are likely to be higher than current consensus expectations for this year. He sets out how this will have a meaningful impact on the prospects for inflation, monetary policy, the yield curve in the government bond market and the US dollar. In addition, Barry discusses his bullish view for the US stock market and highlights those sectors that are most (and least) attractive in these circumstances.
David Osman of the IRF is joined by Julian Morris, the Chief Economist of Unicus Research, which is based in New York.----more----
In addition to his expertise in economic and financial matters, Julian Morris is an acknowledged expert on environmental, health and technology issues with nearly three decades of relevant experience for ESG investing. ESG funds have become more popular with investors and have performed well in both 2020 and 2021. However, it is not so easy to define exactly what is (or is not) environmentally friendly, social or good governance. Increasing regulation and litigation are adding to the complexities for corporates and for ESG investors. In this podcast, Julian explains many of difficulties associated with green investing, including the reliability of ecolabelling and government-led green business initiatives. He also highlights the definitional problems of what constitutes a good ESG investment, particularly with respect to the social and governance aspects. Julian explains how the different characteristics of ESG can be incommensurate with one another. In doing so, he raises questions about the future of a ‘checkbox’ approach to ESG as a meaningful term for ethical and impact investing. Nevertheless, there are some interesting long-term ESG investment opportunities and Julian points out where Unicus Research has been able to identify profitable ESG investment situations.
David Osman of the IRF is joined by Brian Pellegrini, the founder of Intertemporal Economics, which is based in New York.
----more----Central banks around the world face difficult choices with respect to the trade-off between employment and inflation, none more so than the US Federal Reserve. Monetary policy is becoming less accommodative, but how tight will it become? In this podcast, Brian Pellegrini discusses the outlook for US monetary policy before and after the mid-term congressional elections in November. With US interest rates soon to be back on a rising trend, Brian focusses on the potential changes in the shape of the yield curve and the prospect that the Fed will pursue a policy of yield curve control in the government bond market. He also assesses the outlook for the US dollar and the implications for international investors.
Legendary strategist David Roche, founder and CEO of Independent Strategy, in conversation with the IRF's own JP Smith, himself a former specialist on Russia, focusing on the implications of the build up of Russia's forces around the borders of the Ukraine.----more----
- Putin's prioritises political and ideological motives over economic and/or financial considerations, he is therefore very likely to take some tangible military actions, most likely after the Beijing Olympics.
- The US has persuaded its European allies to co-operate in the imposition of stringent sanctions should Russia move militarily. These sanctions combined with the likely Russian response will drive further increases in the prices of key commodities, namely natural gas, oil, selected metals, grain and gold.
- China's endorsement of any Russian incursion into the Ukraine compounds the broader geopolitical risks.
- The situation is far more serious than the lead-up to the war in Iraq in 2003 or Russia's assaults on Georgia in 2008 and the Crimea in 2014, but investors are far too complacent about the supply side shock, which would follow any significant Russian military action.
- The very real possibility of stagflation is negative for both bond and equity markets, with European equities especially vulnerable given the potential impact of even higher natural gas prices on inflation, consumption and government deficits. The most obvious long positions are in selected commodities of which oil is the most obvious (though technically stretched at present), while gold should also be attractive given its history as a store of value and the recent lacklustre performance, which has led many of the stale bulls to exit the market.
IRF’s JP Smith is joined by Donald Luskin of TrendMacro in this riveting podcast where Donald iterates his view that the post-pandemic bull market is not over.----more----
Recalling past crises, Donald remarks that such events promote rapid innovation. In the case of the Covid-19 pandemic, technological innovations have partly facilitated vast growth. Thus, despite the challenge of reliably measuring productivity and a workforce reduced by 5 million, US GDP on a real inflation adjusted basis is far higher than pre-pandemic levels. Addressing the elephant in the room, the looming impact of the Omicron variant, Donald draws on TrendMacro's COVID-19 pandemic and impact of lockdowns model which provides insights on the supposed benefits, or lack of benefits, from implementing lockdowns. Additionally, he expresses his view that inflation is transitory and that the bond market does not reflect the views of many prominent economic thinkers. Donald further shares his thoughts on commodities and in particular, oil – which is experiencing a demand shortfall due to reduced global mobility.
David Osman of the IRF is joined by James Aitken, the founder of Aitken Advisors, which is based in London.----more----
Consumers are becoming increasingly focused on ESG investing, not just for environmental reasons, but also for social and governance matters. This, along with increasing ESG financial regulation, is putting greater pressures on the investment decisions of institutional investors. Given the strong political momentum behind climate change concerns, James Aitken points out that inflows into ESG and climate related funds are likely to increase substantially in the years ahead. James warns that the ESG and climate tsunami have barely begun to ripple through the world economy and global financial markets: it could be an important feature of them for years to come. He argues that ESG, inflation and climate transition are 3 sides of the same coin. This has important investment implications for asset allocators, particularly with respect to central bank policies, the major oil & gas companies and the future inclusion of China in a global portfolio.
David Osman of the IRF is joined by Jeffrey Christian, the founder & managing partner at the CPM Group, which is based in New York.----more----
Bond and equity markets have risen to valuation levels that are expensive. In the face of rising inflationary expectations, several of the major central banks are now looking to tighten their monetary policy stance. Interest rates are generally expected to be on a gently rising trend in 2022. In these circumstances, many investors are looking to increase the weightings of precious metals and other commodities in their portfolios. A key consideration is what will happen to the price of gold. Jeffrey Christian discusses the outlook for the price of gold and other precious metals both in the short-term and on a 3 - 4 year view. In doing so, he sets out the macroeconomic and sectoral factors that will be the main determinants of the demand for and supply of gold, silver and the platinum group of metals in the next few years.
David Osman of the IRF Podcast team is joined by by Chris Watling, the founder, CEO and Chief Market Strategist at Longview Economics, which is based in London.
----more----Many global investors have come to the conclusion that the equity markets are the best place to investment at present. This has been an important factor driving the rise in stock markets to higher and higher valuations in recent times. Will this continue? When will it end? What happens when it does end? In this podcast, Chris Watling of Longview Economics discusses these questions and other important issues. He explains how for more than a decade the unconventional monetary policies that were implemented by the world’s major central banks, mainly in response to the global financial crisis, have driven down interest rates and government bond yields, created an abundance of liquidity, distorted investment opportunities and encouraged more risk taking. This has led to a major bubble in the global financial markets. Chris points out that the creation of abundant liquidity has been the most important factor driving equity valuations to extremely high levels. For many investors it has seemed that there has been no alternative (TINA) to investing in the equity markets in recent years. But this situation will not continue indefinitely. Chris discusses the outlook for world inflation and monetary policies. He sets out his assessment of when TINA will end as central banks tighten, interest rates increase and stock markets weaken. In conclusion, Chris answers a crucial question for global asset allocators: When should portfolios be switched from a ‘risk on’ to a ‘risk off’ strategy?
David Osman of the IRF Podcast team is joined by William Hess, the co-CEO and co-Head of Research at PRC Macro, which is based in Beijing and New York.
----more----With global investors becoming increasingly concerned about the recent big bang policy developments in China, PRC Macro is ideally positioned to identify and analyse key developments in the Chinese economy, not least in the property sector and the financial markets. Established in 2012, PRC Macro develops economic information and forecasting services to fill the large analytical gaps that exist with respect to China’s political economy. They do this through data, analytical models and extensive on the ground research. PRC Macro offers a subscription to their service where clients can expect to receive at least a weekly market outlook for multiple asset classes, thematic investment ideas and policy analysis. They are also able to offer bespoke work, roundtable events, webinars and privacy briefings.
In this podcast William Hess explains the pros and cons of Xi Jinping’s Common Prosperity Agenda and the severe problems in China’s highly-leveraged property sector. William also discusses China’s demographic trends, which will slow the rate of economic growth significantly in the years ahead. He highlights the main implications for Chinese monetary and fiscal policymakers and for investors in China’s bond and equity markets. William also assesses the chances of China introducing a nationwide property tax in the next few years.
In addition, he discusses China’s more aggressive approach towards reunification with Taiwan and other matters relating to the evolving Sino-US relationship, as well as the outlook for the Chinese currency.
Edward Blad of the IRF Podcast is joined by Jonathan Boyar, Managing Director of Boyar Research, to discuss US equity ideas.
----more----
Boyar Research carries out fundamental research rigorously going through company’s financial statements, tearing them apart and reconstructing them in accordance with economic reality as opposed to generally accepted accounting principles. They seek possible investment opportunities across the market capitalisation spectrum and within a diverse range of industries. A large number of the companies featured in their publications are not widely followed by Wall Street. Boyar's Forgotten Forty portfolio has produced an average annual gain of 9.6% over the past decade, versus the 8% average, for the Russell 1000 Value index.
Stocks discussed include: Liberty Braves, Scotts Miracle-Gro, CVS Health Corp, Microsoft, Home Depot, Twitter.
David Osman of the IRF Podcast is joined by David Roche, President and Global Strategist of Independent Strategy, to discuss ‘investing during a saw tooth pandemic recovery’. Independent Strategy is a macro research company focused on long and short term investment, which is unafraid to challenge conventional wisdom. ----more----
David explains that a normal cyclical recovery post pandemic is impossible. The saw tooth recovery pattern is one where there is a huge boom once the sector is unlocked, followed by decline towards a trend growth rate. The timing and extent of the boom is largely dependent on the sector, with manufacturing first showing the largest boom and now the service sector will likely replace it. In light of this, granular investment selection is very important: specific sectors, countries and stocks. David believes the increased inflation which has been witnessed recently will continue. The pandemic has shifted from a libertarian market philosophy to a state intervention. Higher levels of debt, bigger budget deficits and greater role of the state are expected. David mentions the correlation between higher growth rates and stronger currencies, and expands on his view that government bonds are an unattractive investment proposition.
David Osman of the IRF Podcast is joined by Kathleen Kelley of Queen Anne's Gate Capital to discuss "The Myths and Maths of Commodity Investing".----more----
Katheen Kelley, the CEO of Queen Anne’s Gate Capital, is a former commodities fund manager at Tudor Investment and Kingdon Capital. Kathleen is adamant we are not entering a commodity super cycle because every commodity comes with its own cycle and should be addressed individually. However, whilst some commodity markets, particularly metals, seem to be rolling over, energy markets should continue to rise and as an input to every other commodity this will provide a floor to commodities overall. We should expect the largest draw in oil inventory to come this quarter, leading to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, as demand outpaces supply. Supply remains constrained with OPEC being more disciplined and US companies respecting shareholder demands to return capital. Kathleen discusses her inflation expectations in relation to gasoline and gold prices, as well as China’s demand for metals and their determination to keep prices low to boost economic growth. She also talks about China’s new ESG strategy in terms of commodity production and her insights on soft commodities, which have much shorter cycles. Kathleen discusses coffee, sugar, cocoa, wheat, corn, soyabeans, and one of the most interesting markets vegetable oil with the increasing demand for biofuels.
Jamie Stewart of the IRF Podcast is joined by Callum Thomas, the founder of Topdown Charts to discuss ‘Global Policy Pivot and the Wake Up Call to Markets.’ Topdown Charts is a chart driven Macro Research House covering global asset allocation and economics.----more----
Callum gives clear and expert insight into investment strategy, the projects that can be covered by charts and creates a 3 dimensional appreciation of graphic disciplines. He discusses global policy pivot, how it functions and how it is relevant for us all. He explains why central banks are transitioning from suppressors of volatility to sources of volatility and how investors should understand and interpret this. How last year was about suppressing volatility and pouring unprecedented amounts of monetary easing into the system and why this year we are starting to see monetary policy as a source of volatility. Callum relates how anyone with an asset allocation investment responsibility on an institutional basis should be positioned and what they should be looking for. He indicates any undervalued assets that offer a positive and attractive risk reward prospect and also highlights significant risks which investors are tending to ignore or underestimate.
Jamie Stewart of the IRF Podcast is joined by Richard Edwards, Founder of HED Capital Management, to discuss how to read the mood of the market. HED Capital Management use the tools of behavioural finance to study how shifts in crowd behaviour affect markets.
----more----
Richard begins by emphasising the importance of mood in determining price movements in the market. By examining the ebbs and flows of mood, HED Capital Management have devised various ways to measure it and make predictions. Richard delves into the tools that they use for measuring mood through feedback loops and footprints and how they report these signals to their clients alongside economic commentary and recommendations. Richard finishes by demonstrating how their research differs from typical technical analysis and what subscribers to their service can expect.
David Osman of the IRF Podcast is joined by Carl Weinberg, the Managing Director and Chief Economist at High Frequency Economics to discuss ‘Recovery from the Covid Crisis – Sizzle or Fizzle.’ High Frequency Economics has been a trusted source of economic intelligence for the financial community for over 30 years.----more----
The Fed is facing a crisis and there is no good policy option to be had. It is currently looking at extraordinarily high unemployment which it sees as a risk to social stability, financial stability and economic stability – an unaffordable burden on the economy. There is a risk of inflation to be weighed against the risk of high unemployment. Carl is not convinced there is an inflation risk and gives his reasons why. He states that inflation is the simultaneous and proportionate increase of all prices and all wages for a sustained period of time. He looks back at the last global financial crisis in 2008/09 and then recalls that going into the current economic downturn the economy was already entering an industrial recession. The question he asks of those expecting a sizzling rebound is: ‘Why should the economy not go back to what it was doing before the Covid crisis.’ Carl discusses the impact of scarring from the pandemic and closes with his thoughts on the strongest risk to the strength of the global economic rebound. This may take investors by surprise!
David Osman of the IRF Podcast is joined by Brian Pellegrini, the Founder and Senior Analyst at Intertemporal Economics. Intertemporal Economics bases its analysis on Macroeconomics.
----more----
Following the election of President Biden, US politics is entering an uncertain period ahead of the mid-term elections next year. The Republican Party are struggling to come to terms with the truth of Trump’s narrow defeat. The Democrats have a very expensive fiscal programme to build back better, but President Biden may not have that much time to implement all of the Democrats ambitious policy agenda. Brian discusses why, following the defeat of President Trump last year, there appears to be a major rift in the Republican Party between the Trumpists and the traditional Conservatives. This has been a great topic of discussion in the US. He explains why he believes both the Republican Party and the Democrats will look very different by 2024 and even more so by 2028. Everyone wants unity and one of the issues that unites Americans is that China is a growing threat. He goes on to talk of the developing trends in American society, the changing alignment of cultural affiliations as well as wealth versus non wealth and why he thinks a less strict ideological movement could gain a lot of political power. Brian outlines what investors should be focusing on as we approach the 2022 election season in the US, how he sees the bond market and equity market performing through this period and whether this is a recipe for a strong or weak dollar.
Jamie Stewart of the IRF Podcast is joined by Derek Sicklen, Senior Economist at AAS Economics, to discuss whether bonds and bitcoin will survive the coming stagflation.
----more----
Given the dramatic deployment of monetary and fiscal policy over the past year there has been a renewed interest in money supply. Derek outlined what makes his monetary framework different from those of other economists and how he integrates the concept of fiscal policy into his money supply paradigm and principles. As Austrian Economists, they have a very accurate predictor of target fluctuations. There are significant time lags which vary across countries and also within countries. It is very important to know when a country’s money supply is increasing. Derek discusses the process of monetary creation, how money supply has been driven to levels beyond what would normally be expected and why money supply growth has exceeded the stimulus provided by Central Banks. He talks about current trends in monetary and fiscal policy and how he thinks they will play out over the next 12 months. He then goes onto to give his view ‘in a nutshell’ of the relevance of cryptocurrencies. Derek explains why towards the end of this year and into 2022 we may see a situation of declining growth but increasing inflation. He concludes by stating ‘the stars are aligning for some form of accident perhaps in 2022'.
David Osman of the IRF Podcast is joined by Manoj Pradhan, the Co-Founder of Talking Heads Macro, to discuss ‘Demographics will Reverse 3 Multi-Decade Trends.’
----more----
There is a growing concern that the Covid-19 pandemic could mark the dividing line between the deflationary forces of the past 30-40 years and resurgent inflation. Manoj discusses the three key demographic trends that will almost inevitably reverse three multi-decade trends and the reason why inflation and the direction of inflation is about to change as demography changes too. He explains how demographic changes will impact on wage growth and consumer price inflation and the impact they will have on equality and also on real interest rates. He gives an insight into what this will mean for US dollar exchange rates and whether the current situation will lead to a currency war. Manoj thinks the pandemic has accelerated and fast tracked a lot of the trends and explains why he believes that markets and policy makers will be wrong regarding inflation going forward.
David Osman of the IRF Podcast is joined by Michael Taylor of Coldwater Economics to discuss: ‘Normality – What is it and can the Financial Markets cope with it?'----more----
Michael Taylor founded Coldwater Economics in 2008 following a distinguished career, based mainly in Asia, as a Senior Economist and Head of Equity Research with several leading investment banks including Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank.
Mike concentrates on tracking approximately 500 different data points each month and knows where the world actually is and where it might be going. He is interested in: Return on Capital; Cash Flows; Profits. He issues ‘shocks and surprises’ emails to his clients on a daily basis; one relating to Asia, another to Europe and another to the US. Since June 2020 the world economic data has been surprising people - they have forgotten what normal inflation is. He discusses why he is sceptical of an inflationary breakout, the challenges he foresees over the next six months and why the US continues to surprise. Mike is cautious about equity markets and explains why a nasty surprise could await us as we get back to normality.
Edward Blad, CEO and Founder of IRF, is joined by Jules Hull of StockViews. StockViews is a fundamental research firm providing clients with indepth reports on Long and Short ideas sourced from European markets.
----more----Recently StockViews has developed a ground-breaking piece of software called Dragonfly, which systematically highlights potential risks in three major areas: Accounting, Earnings Quality and Governance.
As Annual Report season rolls in Jules explains how Dragonfly works and why its focus on details from the notes to the accounts can provide investors with an edge in spotting risks instantaneously. Dragonfly produces automated reports on over 1300 companies in Europe using over 800 raw data points from the financial statements and governance disclosures.
Dragonfly will soon incorporate a unique remuneration framework based on the metrics companies use for long and short term incentivisation.
David Osman of the IRF Podcast is joined by Barry Knapp, Managing Partner and Head of Macro and Public Policy Strategy at Ironsides Macroeconomics to discuss ‘Fiscal Dominance – What are the Economic Implications of this new US Paradigm.’
----more----Barry has had a long and distinguished career in equity derivatives/principal trading/equity strategy research/unconstrained fixing and investment and macroeconomic and public policy strategy.
With the world economy beginning to emerge from the depths of the global pandemic, investors are increasingly focused on the prospects for a period of reflation. What does this mean for future government policies and how well will the financial market react to the policy risks? Barry feels there are serious implications for the US economy reminiscent of what happened in the early 1960s which led to inflationary spiral. We are now in the early stages of that transition towards a higher inflationary regime. Inflationary impulse is greater than it was back in the Global Financial Crisis. Barry identifies the three tail winds for this year when considering the strength of the economic recovery and talks about the differences between the recovery of 2009/10 and that of 2020/21. He goes on to discuss the potential policy risks that he foresees and explains why he is an advocate of reflation trade.
David Osman of the IRF Podcast is joined once again by David Ranson, President of HCWE & Co. HCWE has a clientele of institutional investors, hedge funds and family offices throughout North America and Europe.
----more----
With the uneven roll-out of Covid19 vaccines around the world this year, there is a wider than usual range of forecasts for economic growth and inflation both in 2021 and in 2022. From an investment standpoint a lot depends on the outlook for the US economy. David Ranson explains the difference in the work of HCWE and his evidence for doubting the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies conducted during 2020. He doubts whether stimulus programmes stimulate output. He explains that productivity cannot be used to forecast the economy – you need to look at leading indicators that work during a crisis e.g. VIX index. He states that the economy has shown a great amount of resilience, both in the US and throughout the developed world. ‘Everyone was talking about a recession, but it was nothing like a normal recession. There was an enormous drop in output but it bounced back very quickly, which is quite unlike a recession. What we had was a Great Interruption.’
Please note that slides are available alongside this podcast upon request from the Independent Research Forum (caroline@independentresearchforum.com).
David Osman of the IRF Podcast is joined once again by acclaimed economist and author Peter Warburton of Economic Perspectives to discuss whether a bleak future is in store for the UK economy.
----more----Peter is pessimistic about the prospects of the UK economy in the next 3-4 years despite the UK’s relatively strong growth forecast for the year. Whilst Peter predicts a ‘spirited rebound’ in economic activity with the re-opening of the service sector in the second half of the year, Peter envisages this as merely an interval of growth which will last for only a brief amount of time. Peter believes part of the problem with the forecast for the UK economy is that not only has the UK suffered economically from lockdown but also from deglobalisation that has particularly affected London as a major financial centre. Peter goes on to discusses how a pickup in consumer price inflation may affect the UK’s monetary policy and the strength of the Pound and gives an insight into what stock picks may carry investors through a potentially rocky economic environment.
Peter Warburton has worked as an applied economist since 1975 and has authored numerous books such as ‘Debt & Delusion’ and ‘The War of Independence: A Declaration’. Peter’s roles in the financial sector have taken him through stints at firms such as Lehman Brothers and Ruffer, alongside founding his UK-based consultancy Economic Perspectives in 1996.
IRF CEO & Founder Edward Blad is joined by Damanick Dantes, CMT of Dantes Outlook for this episode of the IRF Podcast titled 'Top Trades Around the World in 2021'.
----more----Damanick explains his market outlook for 2021 including his thoughts on why the market is still in a risk-on scenario and why pullbacks and corrections in the market provide a buying opportunity for investors, particularly in the Commodities market. Damanick believes that outperformance in Commodities is having a global impact that is notable in Latin American equities and thus also providing investment opportunity. Damanick sees further buying opportunities in the small-cap sector where he feels outperformance is easily found in the current market conditions. Damanick also discusses his thoughts on the outlook for the S&P 500 and why he thinks weakness should be expected before going on to explain his view generation process, particularly focusing on how his asset allocation background allows him to focus on the long-term picture. Prior to founding Dantes Outlook in 2016, Damanick worked in roles ranging from FX to North American Rates for firms such as Saxo Bank and Fidelity Investments.
The IRF Podcast’s David Osman is joined by Kathleen Kelley of Queen Anne’ Gate Capital to discuss ‘The Outlook for Commodity Prices in 2021’.
----more----Kathleen Kelley brings with her over 25 years of experience in global macro research with frequent television appearances on CNBC and Bloomberg. The podcast touches on the case for commodities to take a leading role in the global economic recovery from COVID-19 due to the reluctance of investors to fill their portfolios with stocks and bonds. Kathleen’s career has given her close connections to OPEC decision-makers and a unique perspective on the oil market as a result. Kathleen explains that Saudi Arabia’s decision to take one million barrels of oil as a ‘gift’ has placed a backstop on non-compliant OPEC members and as a result, producers such as in the US have seen a price increase. Kathleen expects to see oil prices to continue to rise in 2021 and 2022 due to a limited number of providers able to continue production within the next two years. Away from oil, Kathleen has seen as mismatch between supply and demand in base metals but sees this as a problem that has been fixed due to China- the centre of demand’s second lockdown and their stimulus tailing off. In the realm of commodities as a whole, Kathleen sees the total number of assets under management heightening during the COVID recovery. Whilst index funds and ETF’s are the most popular choice at the moment, Kathleen sees more specialisation in investors’ choices in the commodities market going forward.
The IRF podcast is delighted to be joined by Ron William, founder of RW Advisory. Ron joins us to discuss what to expect as we enter 2021, sharing over twenty years of market experience.
----more----The podcast indicates January as the crucial barometer for determining market performance for the year ahead and assesses some of the imminent risks facing market stability. Ron determines that Asia’s “first in and first out” advantage from the pandemic has promoted considerable growth within the region, pushing investment away from Western markets. Determined that Bitcoin is here to stay, Ron assures listeners of its future investment viability and the cryptocurrency’s stability as a respected asset class. Current affairs in America are also registered as a precursor for market risk in 2021; concern continues to be dictated by the shift in presidential power and the growing social tension/volatility once President-elect Biden takes office.
The IRF podcast is delighted to be joined by Helen Thomas, founder and CEO of Blonde Money. Helen joins us to discuss Biden, Brexit and future pandemic disruption.
----more----With almost twenty years of experience, Helen cuts through the noise to reveal the political and economic events that drive financial market changes. The podcast looks ahead into 2021 and 2022 to reveal the long-term effects of COVID-19, analysing how human consumption patterns have been fundamentally altered and questioning the effects this will cause on the economy’s future functionality. Helen determines that a post-Brexit U.K.’s success remains with our political leaders as they navigate ongoing COVID-19 vaccine rollout and completing EU regulatory policy. Those in power are responsible for developing on the inbuilt advantages the country has to ensure long-term success. Biden’s first two years in office were met with apprehension within the podcast as Helen reveals the Senate’s 50/50 split may only encourage further party divides. This constraint is predicted to delay policy-making, heightening tensions and promoting a ‘veto’ power voting system as Senators push for individual agendas.
An update on IRF and the overall independent investment research market with CEO and Founder, Edward Blad.
The IRF Podcast is joined by Eric Kress of Gossamer Consulting Group to discuss the video gaming sector.
----more----Eric highlights game releases throughout 2020 and what to expect in 2021 as well his recommendations and track record. Companies covered include EA, Activision, Ubisoft, Nintendo and Roblox. Gossamer Consulting Group is an independent research boutique that provides investors and industry clients with primary research on console, mobile, and other related technology companies. With 20 years’ experience in the interactive industry and sell side research, Eric Kress brings deep investment expertise in the technology industry.
The IRF Podcast is joined by Dominique Dwor-Frecaut of Dwor-Frecaut Macro to discuss her big picture views with practical portfolio implications.
----more----She highlights 2021 as being the year to be in risk assets; expect a 20% increase in the S&P with even better opportunities outside the US. Dominique has worked at the IMF, the World Bank and the New York Fed, on the sell side in Singapore and at US-based macro hedge funds, including Bridgewater and startups in NYC and LA. Her first brush with contrarian thinking was predicting the 1997 Asian crisis while working as country economist for Thailand at the World Bank.
In the wake of Biden’s US election victory, Brian Pellegrini of Intertemporal Economics joins the IRF Podcast to discuss the implications of the result politically and economically as we move into 2021.
----more----Brian Pellegrini founded Intertemporal Economics in January 2018 and serves as Chief Economist. He previously spent time working as a Senior Analyst for Connolly Insight and as a Structured Products Analyst for Morgan Stanley. Brian also holds an M.B.A. in Business Administration from Columbia Business School.
The IRF Podcast is joined by Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital to discuss The Big Liquidity Story.
----more----CrossBorder Capital brings a different perspective to understanding capital markets and economies by focussing on international capital and domestic liquidity movements. Michael Howell, CEO, developed the quantitative liquidity research methodology while he was Research Director at Salomon Bros. from 1986. He was subsequently appointed Head of Research at Baring Securities in 1992 and was top ranked “Emerging Market Strategist” by institutional investors for the three years prior to setting up CrossBorder Capital.
The IRF Podcast is joined by Charles Hess of Inferential Focus to discuss the reasons behind China's path of aggressive development across a range of industries and the potential outcomes.
----more----Charles Hess is the Managing Director, President and Owner of Inferential Focus and was a key figure in the founding of Inferential Focus in 1980. Charles also possesses a Ba in Political Science from the University of Rochester.
The IRF Podcast is joined by François Boutin-Dufresne of Sustainable Market Strategies to discuss his views on how ESG investing can result in a logical and dependable increase in alpha generation.
----more----François founded Sustainable Market Strategies in May 2018 and worked previously as a Global Macro Research Strategist for Pavilion Global Markets and as an Economist for the International Monetary Fund amongst other roles.
The IRF Podcast is joined by Brunello Rosa of Rosa & Roubini Associates to discuss his long-term view that the European Union is facing serious internal problems and that the EU's internal issues could easily morph into a Populist controlled European Parliament.
----more----Brunello Rosa is CEO of Rosa & Roubini Associates as well as a member of the Chief Economists Advisory Board of the European Investment Bank and the Advisory Board of the Ambassador of Italy to the UK.
Peter Warburton joins the IRF podcast to discuss his theory on what regime change can mean for inflation and his thoughts on what effects the pacing of fiscal normalisation.
----more----Peter Warburton has worked as an applied economist since 1975 and has spent time in roles at Robert Fleming, Lehman Brothers and as a member of the IEA's Shadow Monetary Policy Committee.
David Ranson, President of HCWE joins the IRF Podcast today to discuss the concerns that he has for the US economy in the near future due to what he sees as a lack of effective policy in both the monetary and fiscal fields.
----more----Prior to his role at HCWE, David Ranson taught economics at the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business and sits as a Fellow of the Institute for Applied Economics.
Global Forecaster's David Murrin joins the IRF Podcast to discuss his model for the growth and decline of civilisations - The Five Phase Life Cycle of Empires.
----more----David's career has spanned over 30 years and included roles in the oil exploration business as well as on the trading floors of JP Morgan.
CEO and Head of Research at PRC Macro, William Hess joins the IRF Podcast to discuss the global implications of policy inside China.
----more----William has previously acted as President of China Monitor and as Director of Sovereign and International Public Finance ratings with Standard & Poor's in Hong Kong.
The latest IRF Podcast features James Lucier, Managing Director at Capital Alpha Partners. James uses his extensive knowledge of D.C. trends and U.S. policy to give an insight into Washington's view of the election and what the consequences of a Biden win or Trump win would be respectively.
Michael Belkin uses his acclaimed proprietary forecast model to explain how long-term bond yields will affect the returns and structuring of investment portfolios going forward.
Experienced economist Andrew Hunt explains his process of interacting with policy makers and many of the world's central banks to give a fascinating look into the economic implications of Trump's presidency and the Chinese administration.