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The post FTs Ultimate Live – Snickometer – Dementia – FTS Betslip 1st July 2024 Episode No.28 appeared first on FTS Income.
How to build your betting systemWatch the video above to build your betting system using our FTS advanced database.
Video TranscriptionHow do we use this data? What’s the best way to build a system? My overriding thing, having looked in, I’m recording this in 2024 January in 2023, I looked at over 500 system spreadsheets that people had sent me and my overriding thought process was, excuse me, far too much.
People just try and do far too much filter, far too much. It doesn’t need to be as difficult as people make it. I think the one thing with punting trading is people think because it’s so difficult to beat that they’ve got to do something extraordinary and come up with these farf fangled methods to beat the markets when you’ve actually got to be really simple and the key is being consistent disciplined.
Get your staking right. The reason why Denise makes so much money isn’t because people don’t have systems and information. It’s because she can set the prices and she knows that people will act like lunatics and do 20 leg ERs and whatever it may be, trading on Betfair, we can pick when to enter or excuse me, we can control every part of what we do and that’s what I’m going to try and talk you through this morning.
The FTS advanced database. It has got on here if I can get my mouse in the right place. Starts in 2020 and it has got 30,908 games as you can see down there. So what I’m going to do now is I’m going to use this to build a method.
I’ve made it a bit bigger and what I’m going to do is I am going to, I’ve got two, we have two press on models on FTS. They’re our own price on models.
We’ve got one which is based on six games and one which is based on seasons data. So I tend to use the six game ones for the inplay tool. I’ve made some videos on that that’s available on FTS. So what’s happening really and then when I’m looking to build longer term systems that I want to stack up over a period of time, I’ll tend to use the C one.
Sometimes I’ll combine the two. My advice to you if using this is try with both and try both individually and try both together. But again, you don’t want to be filtering home team XG away team xgm match. I’m going to make this really simple. I’m going to look today, I haven’t checked this. I dunno what’s going to come out.
My usual level of preparation, I’m going to run a look for a first half goal system and I’m going to use the season model. I want something that’s stacked up over time and I’m going to look initially at making a profit, but what I’m then going to do is talk you through how I would enhance that profit and reduce the variance by taking it into taking it in play. So I’m going to use season model football matches average about 1.2 goals in the first half.
So our model has numbers in here from North 0.15, so obviously low scoring teams that had disasters up to four first half goals are extraordinary. Probably find that’s teams like Doman and it’s worked out on a match by match basis.
Who the opponents are that weekend on the data we have in the buildup to that match and the blanks are where we do not have enough data to create a calculation. So that might be a team that’s newly promoted into a new league and we don’t have any data of them playing that level of opposition and things. So we don’t just put a number out, we can’t create a number out within it. So what I’m going to do, given that first half goals, average 1.2, I’m going to filter this greater than 1.5. So numbers greater than 1.5. So I’m looking for games where our model says these teams are generating more than 1.5 first half goals a game and what I’m going to do here just underneath, I’m just going to put that in.
So I’ve put season half time xg, I’m just going to make a note of the filters we use that you can see it greater than 1.5. So that’s my first filter there and I can scroll along. I’ve done nothing else that’s reduced our 30,000 matches down bottom left here to 4,600. So I’ve got 4,600 games and I’m just going to scroll along now to the market prices. So these are the prices that we collect five minutes pre kickoff.
So consistently getting that when the market’s formed, we know there’s liquid in the market. So you can see I’ve got 4,000 games that one filter hasn’t done much. It loses in the over 2.5 35 points. It loses if we backed over 1.5 45 points. Let’s just have a quick look at the markets relevant to the first half goal and you can see first half goal under nought 0.5 does win 77 points and loses just a point.
So instantly that’s giving me hope that actually that number relating to that market. So I’m looking at halftime market first half xg and what it’s done to the market there. It’s put it in profit. If we were laying and you’d be laying an average price of four, not two bad. So if you laid every one of those 4,000 games, you’d won 77 points there just laying every single one for a first half goal.
But I’m going to add a couple of other filters in and two filters, literally two more for the minute that I like and here what I say about everybody filters the one thing I like strong home favourites. So I’m going to go with the market, make some strong home favourites. Now you’ll see here we’ve got some zeros. That’s where Betfair may not have had a price where we may have had Betfair has gone down or kickoff has moved or whatever it may be.
So to make sure that we don’t include those, I always do between two numbers. So I go to numbers between and I’m going to go between 1 0 1 so I want to include every team that is odds on and 1.99 obviously the majority of them are 1.5, 1.6. Again if we do the average price of those, it’s 1.56. So you’re going to have plenty in the 1.5 6 7, 1 0.6, 1.7 market and the odd one like buy Munich 1.12 and things at times and so now that’s reduced it down to 1900 games. So I’m just going to put that in here.
So if you do this as you go then you don’t have to keep checking back what did I filter home team 1.01 to 1.99 home team on. So I’ll put in there, I’ve only got one sets of odds on here and they were taking five minutes pre kickoff and then I’m going to go again to now you can see just having home team, see how we were losing in the over 2.5 market.
Now I’ve got strong first half goal, xg strong home team, all of a sudden I can now win back in two and a half goals. Yeah, it’s only 20 points. You have to have 1900 bits but it’s getting me on the right side. This is what I want to see. I want to see that I’m on the right side of the market all the time and then I can go here and go right now I want the same. I want the market telling us there’s goals.
So not just my model saying, oh there’s going to be goals. I want the market saying we make goals favourite as well. So we go can only be over or under 2.5 if it’s under if unders favourite.
The market doesn’t fancy the goals if over’s favourite, the market does fancy goals so I’m just going to whip that one in again, pop it in here over 2.5 odds, 1.01 to 1.99 and now I have got 1,773 games. I’ve removed some more games. Another couple of hundred games over 2.5 goals now wins 44 points. Laying unders wins 69 and this is all after commissions.
The commissions accounted for over 1.5. So where we had that when I applied that first filter, nothing won. Now by looking at strong home teams and where the market backing over 3.5 wins backing both teams to score yes wins laying that first half goal now is 118 points.
Probably have to lay some decent prices would you up to 4.5 back in the first half. Goal wins 31 points. So just back in the first half, what I was initially setting out to do 1700 games wins me 31 points. I’m just going to put that in. So all filtered, excuse me, I’m just going to put that in just so we’ve got reference all filtered. If I could spell, we’d get there. Sorry, my usual levels of production all filtered. I’m a better, not a flipping YouTube maker. All filtered games. We’ve got 1,773 and the first half profit Is 31.05.
Okay, so it makes profit, but do we want to have 1700 bits to win 31 points? There’s not a lot margin for error if couple go against us. Interestingly, the first half 1.5 wins 103 points, but this is where you’re going to have your variance and your big losing runs there.
Eight points over that little short period there. So that again, you could do it by all means, but you’ve got to be accepted for what the variance. What I’m going to do is show you how I approach this. Now, how I would go about approaching this is I’m going to go a little bit further along the sheet to the goal times and what I’m going to say is I want to play these games but I don’t want 31 points profit for 1700 bits. I’m going to enter later. So this is my justification.
I’m talking about entering, I’m going to enter later and if I enter round about 25 minutes, I’m going to average odds round about two or better. You’ll have the odd game that’s still 1.8 depending on the teams involved for a first half goal at that time, but the odds will move as time decays and we’re going to end up averaging over two.
So all of a sudden now I just need to make sure I’ve got more winners and losers and do I have enough more winners and losers to make it worthwhile the time I’m putting into it. So the first thing I do column ff is the time of the first goal in the match. Minus one signifies there wasn’t a first half goal, first half goal in the first half, sorry, the first goal in the first half minus one means there wasn’t a first half goal.
All I’m going to do is I’m going to uncheck all the games now that add an early goal. I wouldn’t be playing them. I’m not going to be back in north 0.5 first half goals at 1.32 or laying odds at five. It’s not what I want to do. I want to be a much smoother ride.
I like to be able to get money in. I can get more money on it, smaller odds I can. It’s got so much benefits except for you’ve got to be patient and wait, that’s the only downside I hope. Let’s see what the numbers tell me. This is where it all goes, crashes and burns. So basically what I’ve done there is out of those 1700 games I’ve said I’m not going to play any, I’m not going to bet them beforehand and I’m going to wait and see how many are still nil, nil on 25 minutes.
So I’m just going to click that and now I’ve got 826 games. So games still nil, nil on 25, I’ll put that in there is 826 and what I need to work out now is out of that 826 games, can I make money waiting and seeing? So the first thing I want to know is how many losers have I got or how many winners and how many losers. Now that 826 games, games with a goal can only be two outcomes. Now games with a goal and I’m going to win if I enter games.
No goal. So games without a goal, games with a goal, all I need to do now is uncheck the minus one as well. So I’ve got 826 games. The losers, I can’t do anything about whether I bet a first half goal or whether I wait a loser’s going to be a loser. So I’m just going to uncheck the minus one that’s going to tell me. Now all the games out of that 826 that had a goal from 25 to when the halftime whistle went and that is 452. So games 4, 5 2, which means games without a goal. So that equals the games we had that were nil nil, minus minus. Can I get in that cell?
It’s D 3 0 9 29, oh it’s not, it’s D 3 0 9 2 8 there my Excel skills come to the fore. So out of that I’ve got 452 games that had a goal. So I’ve waited till 25 minutes, Neil, Neil, I’ve got 452 games, had a goal from 25 minutes onwards and I’ve got games, no goal 374 and then all I need then is equals, let’s see if I can do it right this time.
That minus that is 78 equals that times. Let’s put commission, a little bit of commission in there. So if I waited for 25 minutes and I could back every single one of these 826 games at bang on two point north at 25 minutes I would win 76 points.
So I’ve only got 800 games here. I had seven, eight, so I’ve got half the games and over double the profit waiting. So just by sitting there waiting, letting that market go, I’d have played these games. This is a solid back test. If I’ve played those games I’D 1,773 bets, I’d have made 31 points profit. If I’d ignored the games that Abigail one to 24 minutes, I’d have 826 games, 452 of them had a goal and I’d win 70 points minus the commission. 76.442% commission. Some of you may be on higher, you shouldn’t be going to your settings. Make sure you don’t accept bet fair promotions and get two p commission.
It’ll be better than any long-term promotion if you are looking to be serious about this.
But that’s assuming everything is two. I’ve already said some maybe be 1.8, some maybe two. But what I want to do is I don’t want to bet every game bang on to, if we look at this now and go right, I’m going to put the minus ones back so they exist. So that’s our 826 games there, but we’ve got 35, we’ve got 42, we’ve got 41. So let’s have a look.
I’m just going to count up how many games here. I’ve had a goal after 35 minutes. So what I’ll do here is go between 35 and forty six, two hundred and twenty. So 220 games with the first goal. I’ll put that in.
So first goal post 35, so the losers aren’t going to change. We’re still going to have that. That number’s not going to change. 3, 7 4 is always going to stay. We’re going to have 452 winners, but they’re not all going to be 452 winners on 25, 26 minutes.
Some of them are going to be 40 minutes, 44, 45, first half injury time. So by dripping my bet in, so rather than just having a point dripping it in going 25, 30, 35, I’m going to pick up much bigger price on these 220 games. So all of a sudden now if I can pick up odds of average, 2.5, 2.6, a lot of games, you’ll get more than that. Now I’m winning a point and a half a game, so I’m still only losing a point. I can only ever lose a point on a losing games. I’m dripping it in, but I’m going to be picking up in 220 games much more than a point. Of course there’s going to be games where they have the goal on 25 dripping in where I’m only going to win a third of my stake if I drip a point in 25, 3 bits, 25, 30, 35, I’m going to have some small winners, but nearly half the winners come after 35.
If we say 60% come after 30 and you can go and work all this out, I’m getting more than a point for these games because of the odds I’m getting in at because the odds are going up all the time. As the clock ticks down, the odds on a first half goal if it’s still nil, nil will go up. So it enables me to enter the market there. I’ve really only got three filters. I’ve got a season halftime xg, and then I’m checking the price. Five minutes pre kickoff. The home team MOD’s on is the O. So you can do this in the morning, the sheet comes out seven 15, how many games on the sheet? I’ve got a season halftime XG greater than 1.5. I’ve got eight today on as busy Saturday hypothetically, right? I’ve got check the home and home mods and over 2.5 odds on those eight games, five minutes pre kickoff, put some alarms in your phone, whatever it may be.
You can automate this sort of stuff, okay? Right? So that qualifies, right? Oh, a goal’s gone in 10 minutes, not again, 25 minutes. It’s nil nil right Now I can start to enter if I’ve got, let’s say you’ve bent in 15 pound again, five pound on, 25 minutes, five pound on 35 pound on 35 goal goes in, you win. If a goal doesn’t go in, you’re going to lose.
If it’s 15 pounds, that’s your 15 pound point lost, but you can see we win a lot more games than we lose. It makes money pre kickoff so everything’s in there. So that’s the FTS advance sheet. I hope you find that hopeful helpful. All I do then is transfer this criteria to another sheet so I know while I’m doing it, just if you type it out in the sheet, just stops you having to zoom back and forwards all the time so you can see and you can get your numbers, see if it’s a bag and nails, you can clear those, clear the contents and start again, clear the sheet down and do it.
But most people do. It is a really simple method and the reason your win is being consistent, being disciplined, do it. Of course, you could still have 5, 6, 7 losers on the trot games that end nil nil. That’s always going to happen. There’s nothing we can do about that. It’s always going to happen. If I just clear that there, I’m going to clear it. I’m just going to filter that again. I’m just going to take a little bit of time. I’m just going to take out those games and you can just have a quick visual look at the losing runs before I leave you and then I’ll show you in the next video. I’m going to do this exact I’m sort of thing, but I’m just going to show you how you can analyse it by league as well, but using an easier way than just clicking through all the leagues.
21, 22, 23. So I’m just ignoring anything that’s had a goal in the first 25 minutes. Click okay and we can just have a quick look here. There’s a visual scan scanners, exactly what I wanted to show.
That’s where we’ve got eight losers, eight games, only one winner, and that’s where people go, oh variance. It’s not just variance, it doesn’t work, and they give up and go. If I start posting these in rooms, I do that and people just go, well, that’s cracking it. So I just lose the will to live with it. You look at that again, another there look, 10 games, only one winner, but I’ve shown you what actually happens. Those runs you cannot do away with. They are going to happen. They’re always going to happen. The more bets you have, the more likelihood there is that you’re going to have a run of 8, 10, 12 losers.
That’s just how it happens on the website. There’s stuff about long losing runs, but it’s a really simple way to build a betting system.
But the key element is to use one pre-match filter on the sheet and then two odds checks and that’s it. It’s a really simple way that you can go about it. The key element of all of it, it doesn’t matter what you build is consistency of application and execution.
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Month 11 – Bloggers Slog – June 2020 FTS Ultimate (13 systems – 7 Main database, 6 New database) ORIGINAL STARTING BANK = £500.00 (100-point bank – £5 per 1-point stake) MONTHLY STARTING BANK TOTAL = £264.00 MONTHLY PROFIT/LOSS = END OF MONTH BANK (upto 30/04/2020) = Seminar 2019 – £1K to £80…
The post Month 11 – Bloggers Slog – June 2020 first appeared on FTS Income.
The post Month 11 – Bloggers Slog – June 2020 appeared first on FTS Income.
Month 11 – Bloggers Slog – June 2020 FTS Ultimate (13 systems – 7 Main database, 6 New database) ORIGINAL STARTING BANK = £500.00 (100-point bank – £5 per 1-point stake) MONTHLY STARTING BANK TOTAL = £264.00 MONTHLY PROFIT/LOSS = END OF MONTH BANK (upto 30/04/2020) = Seminar 2019 – £1K to £80…
The post Month 11 – Bloggers Slog – June 2020 first appeared on FTS Income.
The post Month 11 – Bloggers Slog – June 2020 appeared first on FTS Income.
Month 9 – Bloggers Slog – April 2020 FTS Ultimate (13 systems – 7 Main database, 6 New database) ORIGINAL STARTING BANK = £500.00 (100-point bank – £5 per 1-point stake) MONTHLY STARTING BANK TOTAL = £264.00 MONTHLY PROFIT/LOSS = £0.00 END OF MONTH BANK (upto 30/04/2020) = £264.00 Seminar 2019 – £1K…
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The post Protected: Portal ECHO first appeared on FTS Income.
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The post Protected: Portal Delta first appeared on FTS Income.
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