Market Talk: What’s up today? | Swissquote: Recent Episodes

Swissquote

Relevant updates, everyday! Our Senior Market Analyst, Ipek Ozkardeskaya, is tirelessly on the lookout for updates and outlines in this podcast exactly what you need to know to successfully untangle the thickets of the financial markets, day by day.

About the expert: Ipek Ozkardeskaya started her career in 2010 at Banque Cantonal Vaudoise in the field of structured products. After that, her professional path led her to the world’s biggest financial hubs including Geneva, London and Shanghai. Since 2020, she works for Swissquote as Senior Analyst. Ipek is a specialist for FX, leading market indices, individual stocks, oil, commodities, bonds and interest rates.

Subscribe to the podcast to never miss an episode!

The dust seems to be settling in cryptocurrencies. Terra and Luna are now worth almost nothing but Bitcoin returned past the $30K, which is a sign that the confidence in the broader sector may have not been damaged as much as we first feared. European stocks opened in the green and US futures are pointing to the upside, yet volatility remains high, warnings that the wind could change direction rapidly, and the high volatility environment is more favourable for further losses than sustainable gains. On the geopolitical front, the Europeans are going around their own sanctions against Russia by opening accounts with Gazprom bank to pay the Russian gas in exchange of rubles (!!), but the latest news suggest that Russia is now cutting the German gas as a retaliation to its sanctions. Of course, the Europeans have been quite bad in this poker game - they showed too openly how scared they were to lose the Russian gas that now, Russia is gaining the upper hand. European gas futures gained another 13% yesterday, and the pressure on energy prices remain clearly tilted to the upside. Saudi Aramco has surpassed Apple in terms of market capitalization this week, to become the world’s most valuable company, and the US dollar index extended gains to a fresh 20-year high. Everyone is now wondering when the dollar rally will end!

US inflation data didn’t print a soft-enough figure to reverse the market selloff. Disappointing US inflation data sent another shock wave to the US stock markets sending all major US indices tumbling on Wednesday. The S&P500 lost more than 1.5%, while Nasdaq tumbled more than 3%. Bitcoin slumped below the 2021 lows on the back of a broad-based risk-off selloff, and panic due to TerraUSD losing its dollar peg earlier this week. The US dollar remained upbeat, and the dollar index returned above the 104 mark as the lower-than-expected cool down in the US inflation figure revived the Fed hawks. The pound-dollar is testing the 1.22 this morning as the UK-European relationship is souring on the Northern Ireland headache. Gold rebounded from the 200-DMA, as the US 10-year yield eased despite yesterday’s higher-than-expected inflation print in the US, as US crude saw a decent dip buying interest below the $100 per barrel, even with the souring prospects of a healthy global economic recovery.

It’s D-day of the week: we will see whether inflation in the US started easing in April after hitting a four-decade high in March, and if yes, by how much. A soft inflation read will come as a relief that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) efforts to tame inflation start paying off, but any disappointment could send another shock wave to the market. For now, activity on Fed funds futures give almost 90% chance for a 50-bp hike in FOMC’s June meeting; there is a lot left to be priced for a 75bp hike, if the data doesn’t please. To avoid pricing in a 75bp hike at next FOMC meeting, we must see an encouraging cooldown in inflation. In the FX, the US dollar extended gains, despite the easing yields yesterday, as the risk-off flows continued supporting the greenback. The levels against the majors like euro, yen and sterling remained flat, but the positive pressure in the dollar, combined with Turkey’s unconventional monetary policy start giving signs of exhaustion. The dollar-try advanced past the 15 mark, and the government asked institutions to make their FX operations within the most liquid trading hours. Two weeks ago, the bank had revised its regulations on banks' reserve requirements, applying them to the asset side of balance sheets in order to strengthen its macroprudential policy toolkit. The latter required reserves now pressure the overnight rates to the upside – suggesting that the unconventional policy is near limits. Energy are up and down… but mostly up. The barrel of US crude tipped a toe below the $100 level on news that the Europeans softened their sanctions proposal against the Russian oil, but oil is already above the $100 this morning. The upside potential is fading due to slower global growth prospects, and the Chinese lockdown.

The selloff in stocks, bonds, and Bitcoin deepened on Monday. Even commodities sank and crude oil tumbled more than 8% on the back of mounting worries of a seriously tighter, and potentially ineffective Federal Reserve (Fed) policy that would, to fight back the skyrocketing inflation, pull back support aggressively enough to cause recession. Goldman says the S&P500 could fall to 3600 in case of contraction. Another worry is that, even with a significantly tighter monetary policy, the Fed may not be able to tame inflation as much as desired. This is what the inflation expectations tell us. The S&P500 dive another 3.20% yesterday, as Nasdaq tanked another 4.30%. And money doesn’t flow to ‘safer’ US sovereign bonds, as investors are rapidly unloading the US treasuries as well, given the Fed is now letting its holdings mature to reduce the size of its balance sheet which went through the roof since the 2007 subprime crisis. The US 10-year yield hit 3.20% yesterday, the highest level since November 2018. Gold lost more than 1.50% along with the everything rout yesterday and Bitcoin slipped shortly below the $30K level. The yen and the Swiss franc depreciated against the US dollar, as well. So, where does the money go? To the US dollar – the safest of the safe haven assets. But, there is one potential catalyzer this week, that could eventually slow down the market selloff: US inflation data due Wednesday. The consumer price index is expected to have eased to 8.1% in April from 8.5% printed a month earlier. A softer inflation is the only thing that could give hope to investors.

Last week closed on a negative note, as US NFP data came in stronger-than-expected, revived Federal Reserve (Fed) hawks, and sent the major US indices lower. And the new week starts on a negative note, as well, after the Chinese Li Keqiang warned that the jobs situation in China is getting ‘complicated and grave’ as the government’s zero Covid policy is taking a heavy toll on the country’s economy, and impacts the rest of the world negatively, as well. But US inflation print due Wednesday could help improving investor sentiment this week, if the data confirms a slow down in US inflation from multi-decade high levels. Oil is up this Monday on G7 commitment to ban Russian oil, but Saudis cut the price of their oil due to the Chinee slow down. The US 10-year yield gains field above 3% mark, and US dollar consolidates near two-decade highs. Bitcoin dived to the lowest levels since January over the weekend. The next natural target for Bitcoin bears is the $30K psychological support. The only thing that could reverse the dollar appreciation against majors, and Bitcoin is a soft inflation read on Wednesday!

The Federal Reserve (Fed) ‘magic’ didn’t last long, and the US stocks recorded the worst day of the year yesterday, after posting the biggest gains of the year the day before, under the pretext that the Fed wouldn’t raise the rates by 75bp points. Bitcoin didn’t resist to the risk selloff and dived near $35500 mark for the first time since February. Even Gucci’s announcement that it would accept payments in cryptocurrencies couldn’t improve the mood. Energy stocks did better than their peers yesterday, as the barrel of US crude extended gains past the $110 on the back of timid production target increase from the OPEC, and the European plans to ban the Russian oil and gas gradually to the end of the year. Now, all eyes are on the US jobs data. Even though the Fed will turn a blind eye on softening jobs data in the coming months to focus on its fight against inflation, a strong NFP data could further revive the Fed hawks and the prospects of more aggressive Fed over the next couple of meetings, whereas a soft data could bring in some Fed doves. US dollar remains strong, EURUSD is down below 1.06 on scary plunge in German factory orders, Cable is hit by higher inflation and sooner recession warning, and Turkey is hit by 70% (official) inflation.

The Fed raised the interest rate by 50bp for the first time since 2000 and said there will be more 50bp hikes in the coming meetings. And the major US indices rallied as the Fed played down the possibility of a 75bp hike. That’s the magic of expectations. The reduction of the Fed balance sheet will start with an initial combined amount of $47.5 billion and reach the $95 billion level within three months. The S&P500 rebounded 3%, as Nasdaq rallied 3.40% higher and European futures gained 2% in the overnight trading session, but gains remain vulnerable as oil prices continue rising on news that the Europeans will abandon the Russian energy into the end of the year. OPEC decision, on the other hand, will probably bring no relief to the oil market. Elsewhere, the Bank of England (BoE) is also expected to raise its policy rate by 25bp to 1% at today’s monetary policy meeting to tame the rising inflation in Britain, but it will hardly reverse the negative trend in Cable. Gold is up to $1900 per ounce, but remains under the pressure of rising US yields, while Bitcoin recovered close to $40K psychological mark, but the hawkish Fed expectations may not let the bulls take the reins of the market.

Investors are holding their breath before today’s FOMC decision. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to raise the interest rates by 50bp for the first time in two decades, and start reducing its balance sheet by $95 billion per month to tame the rising inflation in the US. While the 50-bp hike is fully priced in, there is a chance for the Fed to get more aggressive and hint at a 75bp hike in a future meeting, despite the economic indicators that start showing signs of slow down. Inverse ETFs on Treasuries are interesting for those willing to bet for higher US yields. Data-wise, the latest jobs data will throw light on what happened in the US jobs market in April, and the expectations are strong. It is, of course, not a surprise that we see the US dollar continue strengthening, as besides the tighter Fed expectations, the safe haven flows support the greenback in the actual high economic and high geopolitical risk environment. Elsewhere, oil remains upbeat into the OPEC decision, the energy stocks continue benefiting from soaring prices despite the Russia disruption, while the S&P500 companies show better-than-expected average earnings, despite some high-profile disappointments including Netflix and Amazon.

Netflix dived more than 35% at yesterday’s trading session, as the unexpected announcement that the company lost 200’000 subscribers in the first quarter and lose 2 million more didn’t please investors although the latest quarterly revenue hit a record of $7.9 billion, up by $2.4 billion compared to the pre-pandemic levels. Is Netflix a buy? Why, and why not? Tesla, on the other hand, rallied more than 5% post-market on the back of strong quarterly results, after the company reported better-than-expected results. Unlike Netflix, Tesla clients didn’t walk away due to higher car prices; Tesla could pass on the higher costs, due to rising raw material prices and the supply chain crisis, on to its customers. Zooming out, besides Netflix which weighed heavily on Nasdaq and pulled the index more than 1% lower yesterday, most US stocks rose. US and European futures trade in the positive before the European open, yet the escalating tensions with Russia could hit the sentiment, as Russia test-fired a new intercontinental missile that could carry multiple nuclear warheads. In commodities, the positive pressure in oil prices is fading, but the buyers pile in approaching the $100pb level, as the supply side problems weigh heavier than the demand side easing. In the FX, the US dollar softens, as investors will be listening to Fed Chair Powell, ECB President Lagarde and the BoE Chief Bailey speaking today.

Netflix dived more than 25% in the afterhours trading after announcing that the subscriptions fell by 200’000 in the Q1. The carnage in Netflix’s share price will certainly plummet the good mood in Nasdaq, which rallied more than 2% yesterday. Nasdaq futures are pointing to the downside at the time of writing. The European markets traded in the red on the back of the escalation in Ukraine, as Russia launched the ‘second phase’ of the war in the Eastern Ukraine. The futures point at a positive start, yet the risks remain tilted to the downside. Major US indices traded in the green on Tuesday, despite discouraging news that IMF and the World Bank cut growth forecasts and warned of higher inflation, Chinese data showed significant slowdown in economic activity – which could add on the inflationary pressures, and St Louis Fed President James Bullard said he wouldn’t rule out a 75-bp increase in the US rates, though this is not his ‘base case’ for May meeting. The US yields pushed higher, the dollar gained and the yen fell to the lowest levels in two decades against the greenback hinting that it could soon be time for a downside correction. Today, Tesla will announce Q1 earnings and Barron’s warns that the results could disappoint.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Bank of Canada both raised their interest rates by 50bp this week. For both banks, this was the biggest hike in more than two decades, as the policymakers stepped on the gas to fight back the soaring inflation. The latest policy decisions from the G7 central banks cement the idea that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce at least a 50-bp hike in its next meeting, and increase the pressure of a concrete rate action from the European Central Bank (ECB). The rising inflation will certainly lead to heated discussions at the heart of the European Central Bank’s committee at today’s policy meeting. The ECB plans to end the asset purchases by Q3 and hike the rates soon after. But the ECB doesn’t have the option to wait until the last quarter to hike rates; it must raise the interest rates by end of summer, the latest, even though inflation is caused by supply side problems that can’t be effectively addressed with restricting demand. The overall trend is tighter central bank policies and higher rates, but two countries defy the laws of gravity: China and Turkey. Elsewhere, JP Morgan has been the first big US bank to announce its earnings, and the results didn’t enchant investors. Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo will go to the earnings confessional today.

US equity investors jumped on an emotional roller-coaster following the release of the inflation data in the US yesterday, yet the core inflation, which filters out the impact of volatile food and energy prices, came in at lowest since September, giving some hope to investors that inflation may soon hit a high and start easing, hence get the Fed to move less hurriedly for raising the interest rates. Perhaps a wishful thinking that helped the US equities gap higher at the open, but couldn’t cement gains as all three major US indices ended the session in the negative. Crude oil, which made a sharp U-turn and jumped above the $100pb level didn’t help. US equity futures are in the positive at the time of recording, hinting at a minor rebound at today’s session, but the high energy prices, the pandemic and the war, combined with the Fed’s tied hands can’t do much to boost the investor mood. Only hope is earnings, but… JP Morgan will announce its Q1 earnings today, and the CEO Dimon warned that the bank could lose about $1 billion on its Russia exposure. JP Morgan has been trading lower since last October despite the hawkish shift in Fed expectations. Worries that the economic slowdown could result in lower trading activity, and lower loan growth, and jeopardize the gains from higher interest margins weigh on the sector appetite. US LNG stocks however continue outperform, and Citi analyst say that Apple could buy back $80-$90bn worth of stock & boost dividend by 5-10%.

Investors feel the heat before today’s inflation print in the US. All three major indices extended losses yesterday, as the consumer prices in the US are expected to print an advance to the eye-watering level of 8.5% in March, from 7.9% printed a month earlier. And of course, there is a chance that we see a higher print on the back of higher energy and commodity prices, rising wages and rising rents. Bitcoin slipped below the $40K mark as the broad risk selloff tainted on the mood in cryptocurrencies, gold advanced to $1970 per ounce as a broad-based risk selloff benefited to the yellow metal on Monday and crude oil rebounded after extending losses below $93pb. We will dive into the rising correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq that places Bitcoin closer to a proxy for Nasdaq than an alternative safe-haven asset like gold. In the FX, the US dollar index consolidates a touch below the 100 mark. The divergence between the more hawkish Fed and the relatively little responsive ECB continues weighing heavily on the EURUSD, although European consumer prices are rising at a pace which is as scary as the US’. The ZEW index due today will confirm how fast the sentiment deteriorates in Germany. An ugly figure could further weigh on the single currency, but we will probably see a floor into the 1.08 level in the EURUSD before Thursday’s ECB decision, just in case the ECB would sound more hawkish.

On Sunday, the results from the first round of the French presidential election showed that Emmanuel Macron obtained 27% of votes, closely followed by the right-wing Marine Le Pen, who got 24% support. The EURUSD gapped higher at the open as an early reaction to the French first round results that favoured a final Macron victory, but the pair rapidly paired gains to sink below the 1.09 level. The US dollar index remains strong at the start of a week which will probably print a further advance in both consumer and producer prices. European and US equity futures kicked off the week on a bearish note, as the barrel of US traded near $95pb, as Bitcoin fell to $42K on limited risk appetite. Earnings season kicks off, with big US banks due to announce their first quarter results this week, and the earnings are seen sharply down from a year ago due to lower trading revenues, and negative impact of Ukraine war on activity.

Oil consolidates below the $100pb, but UBS warns that the US releasing reserves is just a quick fix, while JP Morgan sees 40% more upside in commodity prices, and investors shrug off the Fed hawkishness helping European stocks and US futures recover this morning. And the equity markets appear to be the ‘least bad’ place to be, as bond markets are shaky and rising inflation gives investors no choice to remain non-invested. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway disclose the purchase of $11.6 billion stakein Alleghany Corporation, along with an additional $4.2 billion stake in HP, and near 15% in stake in Occidental Petroleum. And Peter Thiel called Buffett a ‘sociopathic grandpa’ as he accused him for Bitcoin’s failure to reach the $100K mark. Bitcoin remains under negative pressure – not because of Buffett, but because it failed to clear the 200-DMA resistance, as the hawkish Fed expectations weigh on risk assets.

The FOMC minutes gave the clarity that every investors was looking for: the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be scaling back its near $9 trillion balance sheet by $95 billion per month, more than a trillion dollars per year. On top, many Fed officials noted that ‘one or more 50-bps increases in the target range could be appropriate at future meetings, particularly if inflation measures remained elevated or intensified’. Stock and bond markets didn’t react well to the cruel hawkishness of the latest FOMC minutes. Three major US indices fell, but value names lost less than the growth stocks. Good news is, China announced it will step up monetary and US crude prices are back to the levels before the war. One of the major drivers of the pullback in oil prices is European reluctance to ban the Russian oil. In other commodities, gold remains little changed near the $1920 per ounce, and palladium is back to pre-war levels after having spiked by more than 80% in the first quarter. Other commodity prices remain upbeat, but the liquidity in commodity markets remain tight as the latest wild swings pushed investors to the sidelines.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Lael Brainard’s hawkish comments rocked the markets yesterday as she said that the next interest rate hikes should be more aggressive to tame the skyrocketing inflation in the US, and that the Fed could start reducing its near $9 trillion balance sheet as soon as next month, and at ‘a rapid pace’. Investors will be closely watching the Fed minutes today. There would be no surprise if the Fed hinted a 50-bp hike in the next meeting. Activity in Fed funds futures assess more than 75% chance to a 50-bp hike. Yet, what will really make the difference is the speed at which the Fed will shrink the balance sheet. And there is a big potential for a hawkish pricing on this front. In the FX, Brainard’s comments sent the US dollar rallying yesterday. The dollar index is now preparing to flirt with the 100 offers, the EURUSD sank below the 1.09 level as Cable pulled below the 1.31 mark, but if the Fed minutes doesn’t reveal a further hawkish surprise, we shall see the dollar give back the latest gains and the euro and the pound record a minor rebound. Else, the US and the Europeans are expected to announce a new round of sanctions today. EU is expected to announce a ban on Russian coal imports, but not on Russian oil and gas. The reduced risk of a European ban on Russian oil keeps the oil bulls contained. Bitcoin tipped a toe below the $45K mark on hawkish Fed comments, while gold remains undecided near $1920, supported by safe haven demand, and pressured by rising US yields.

Twitter jumped 27% in a single move on the news that Elon Musk took a 9.2% stake in the company. The jump in Twitter shares gave an energy boost to the US equities, especially to the technology stocks. Tesla jumped 5.5% on record deliveries. But news regarding the war and oil prices were less encouraging. EU leaders will reportedly meet tomorrow and announce additional. Lithuania became the first European country to announce a total ban on Russian gas imports, and the possibility of other nations joining Lithuania in banning Russian oil and gas gives a boost to oil bulls. US crude quickly bounced above the $100 mark yesterday on escalating tensions in Ukraine. Elsewhere, US factory orders fell for the first time in ten months on supply constraints, the PMI data will give a hint on the European activity levels amid war in Ukraine, and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its policy rate unchanged at the historical low of 0.10% for the sixteenth consecutive month. The Aussie rebounded more than 9% against the US dollar since the beginning of February, as iron ore prices jumped due to the Ukraine war, and the medium-term outlook remains positive for the Aussie, as long as commodity prices remain supported by geopolitical threat to the supply.

Crude oil consolidates near the $100pb as the latest pandemic news from China and the massive US release from strategic reserves cool down the positive pressure, but there are uncertainties on whether the US could really release 1 million barrels per day for six months to keep oil prices under control. US futures are in the negative this morning, although the S&P500 ended last week on a last-minute rally. The rising US yields and the curve inversion make investors uncomfortable, and the Federal Reserve (Fed) hawks remain in charge before Wednesday’s FOMC minutes. Gold is under the pressure of higher US yields, and may not benefit from a renewed equity selloff, if the selloff is due to the rising yields. But geopolitical tensions could throw a floor under a further selloff, if geopolitical tensions escalate amid the West preparing to announce more sanctions against Russia. Elsewhere, Chinese stocks rally on news that China will let the US authorities access the full auditing reports of companies listed in the US. Bitcoin is stuck within the $45/48K area and GameStop offers a strong intra-day volatility, though not much fundamentally-supported action in medium run.

Intense selloff in crude oil pulled the price of a barrel to below the $100pb level, which is the critical 50-DMA support to the latest crude rally. The question is, whether Washington could reverse the positive momentum in oil prices with its promise to release a million barrels of oil from the strategic reserves per day, for the next six months starting from next month. And oh, OPEC and Russia agreed on Thursday to increase the oil output modestly as widely expected, but more importantly, they dumped the International Energy Agency as a data source in a sign of worsening relations with the West. Falling oil prices couldn’t prevent a selloff in equities yesterday, as investors couldn’t stop worrying about the inversion of the 2-10 year curve, and the rumours of recession that come along with it. The S&P500 lost more than 1.50% yesterday, and Nasdaq failed to extend gains above the 200-DMA. Bitcoin retreats as failure to clear the 200-DMA resistance encourages some profit taking. On the data-front, the latest Caixin PMI manufacturing index fell below the 50 mark, showing that the Chinese manufacturing activity contracted in March as the latest measures to contain the Covid outbreak took a severe toll on the economic activity. Today, the US will reveal how many nonfarm jobs the US economy added last month, and Europe will reveal how bad inflation got in March.

Inflation in Spain came at a spitting distance to the 10% mark, and inflation in Germany shot up to 7.3% in March, compared to 6.3% expected by analysts and 5.1% printed a month earlier. The EURUSD extended gains to 1.1160 as the jaw-dropping inflation data from the Eurozone countries revived the European Central Bank (ECB) hawks, but the chief Christine Lagarde said that the ECB will only ‘move gradually to normalize policy in the face of raging inflation’. US crude tanked to $101 per barrel this morning on news that the United States is considering the release of up to 180 million barrels from its strategic petroleum reserve over several months to calm soaring crude prices, as OPEC and Russia are likely to stick to their existing deal to gradually increase oil production. Cheaper oil gives a positive spin to the equity markets this morning, but inflation worries keep the central bank hawks alert as the US yield curve inversion leads to heated discussions about a possible recession in the US. On the individual company front, Tesla is reported to have multi-year deals for nickel supply, and Apple wants to reduce its reliance to third parties for its financial products. On the data front, the latest jobs report showed that the US added 455000 new private jobs in March, in line with the expectations. The Q4 growth has been revised slightly lower to 6.9%. Due today, the PCE index, which is another gauge of inflation will certainly confirm the rising pressures in February and keep the Fed hawks on alert – despite the recent fall in crude oil prices.

Risk appetite improved, equities extended rally as talks between Ukraine and Russia hinted at progress, with Russia retreating from Kyiv to concentrate its military efforts in the Donbas region. The de-escalation gave a sigh of relief to investors, although many, including Joe Biden remain skeptical regarding the pullback from Kyiv, that could be ‘limited and tactical’. US crude dived to the 50-DMA yesterday, but that critical support held strong, and the price of a barrel rebounded back above the $105 level. The short-term outlook remains positive and price pullbacks are still seen as interesting dip buying opportunities if the 50-DMA is not cleared. The three major US indices followed up on the European session gains on de-escalation of the situation in Ukraine, but the US 2-year yield caught up, and even briefly surpassed the 10-year yield for the first time since 2019. Rising US yields, and de-escalation in Ukraine weigh on gold prices. But, the curve inversion, nor rising inflation prevent US stock indices from extending gains and the meme stocks are on fire, with GameStop up by 158% in the past two weeks and AMC up by more than 160%. Could the meme craze stretch higher? Yes, it could! Today, the Eurozone flash inflation figures for March start flowing in, and the US will reveal how many private jobs it added in March today. Strong economic data could revive the Fed hawks, push US yields even higher and dampen the mood.

US equities kicked off the week with gains; the Big Tech led gains, as oil stocks slumped following an almost 10% slump in crude oil prices. Many oil traders predict that the price of a barrel could reach $200 by the end of the year. Goldman Sachs warns that the barrel of crude at $200 would send the economy into recession. Nasdaq led gains on Monday, as the index recovered more than half of losses it made since the November selloff, when the Federal Reserve (Fed) hinted at steeper rate hikes and quantitative tightening. The Big Tech is, of course, pulling the index higher, as big tech companies, along with other big cap stocks, are now perceived as safe haven investments when bonds tumble on expectation of a steeper monetary policy normalization. The Bank of America even warns that the global debt weighted by world GDP is on course for its worst year since 1949. So, it’s not a surprise that Joe Biden wants deficit reduction that would be financed by the biggest tax increase in history in dollar terms. Elsewhere, Tesla jumps 8% after the latest SEC filing showed that company wants a stock split to pay its stakeholders stock dividend, Bitcoin turns positive for the first time this year and the US JOLTS data will certainly print another strong month of available jobs, that no one wants.

The week kicks off on a mixed note as US President Joe Biden called Putin a ‘butcher’ and said in a speech in Warsaw that ‘for God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power’. Then, the news that Shanghai is going to a phased lockdown didn’t help lifting the mood in Asia. Oil, which rallied last Friday on news of a drone attack on a Saudi storage facility, slumped again this morning to $110pb. OPEC+ will announce its latest decision this week. In the FX, the US dollar begins the week on strong footage, as the dollar index advances above the 99 mark on geopolitical tensions and the Fed hawks, but the flattening and the inversion of the yield curve bring about the worries of a recession in the US. The EURUSD slips below the 1.10 mark on the back of a stronger US dollar. Besides the OPEC decision, investors will watch inflation data from the US and Eurozone, US jobs report, EV deliveries and US House vote on cannabis. Pot stocks are on fire, as Bitcoin and Ethereum rallies over the weekend. Could the optimism last?

New sanctions against Russia may not include a ban on European oil imports from Russia, but it well includes a ban on Russian gold, as there were signs that Russia was using gold to go around the international sanctions. Crude oil is down since yesterday, as gold trades near $1695 per ounce. Then, there is now news that Russia is considering selling its oil and gas in Bitcoin to ‘friendly’ countries like Turkey and China. The news sent Bitcoin’s price above the 100-DMA resistance, yet there are a couple of questions that hang in the air. Elsewhere, the wild price moves and jaw-dropping margin calls push many investors out of the commodity markets, which, in return, reduce liquidity and has a boosting effect on price volatility. US equities rebounded yesterday, as Nasdaq led gains. Apple gained more than 2% as well, after announcing that in considers a subscription service to sell its iPhone and other hardware products while cannabis stocks rallied big on news that the US house will vote to legalize marijuana next week.

Risk sentiment weakens as Joe Biden meets the EU leaders today. They are expected to announce new sanctions against Russia in the coming hours. There is a possibility of a ban on Russian oil imports to Europe. Uncertainties about Russian oil injects volatility in oil trading, and Russia now asks rubles in exchange of its energy and gas. Meanwhile, Russian market partially opens today, after but only 33 Russian company shares are allowed to trade for a shortened four-hour. The MOEX was up in the first hour of trading, but don’t be fooled by the early rally, because foreigners won’t allowed to sell their stake until April 1st, and short-selling is also banned. And because most of the market was made up of international investors, we will not get a clear picture of the valuations immediately. With the escalating tensions into today’s Europe – Biden meeting, the dollar firmed against major peers. The EURUSD slipped below the 1.10 mark again and gold tests the $1950 offers.

Equities rallied and treasuries dived yesterday, as a sign that investors are cheering the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) plan to deal more aggressively with the skyrocketing inflation – which is certainly more toxic in the longer run than higher rates for the economic tissue. The S&P500 had another strong session yesterday gaining more than 1%, and Nasdaq rallied close to 2% as technology stocks led the rally. Tesla gained close to 8%, GameStop soared more than 30% as AMC gained 15%. Chinese stocks had another great day as well. Alibaba rallied 11% yesterday, and more than 55% since last week. Meanwhile, oil trading is hectic these days, as prices swing between those who rush to sell the top near the $115pb level, and those who rush to buy below $110pb. The news that Germany and Hungary are willing to put the brakes on a potential Russian oil embargo softens the bulls’ hands in the short run, as the long-term outlook remains positive.

Jerome Powell wants to see the US interest rates rise faster. At a speech titled ‘Restoring Price Stability’ yesterday, Powell told the National Association for Business Economics that there could be a 50-bp hike in May, and at subsequent sessions, if the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials conclude that it’s more appropriate to move faster. Activity on fed funds futures hint that the probability of a 50-bbp hike stands near 65%, hinting that there is more to be priced in for the Fed hawks. Still, the US 2-year yield could hardly rise faster, and the spread between the 2 and the 10 year is about to turn negative. A yield curve inversion is interpreted as a sign of a coming recession. Market reaction to Powell’s hawkish speech was contained. The stocks in New York sold off as a kneejerk reaction, but almost erased all losses with a late session rebound, as investors thought that higher rates would be less toxic for companies than higher inflation in longer run. Meanwhile, energy and commodity stocks remain in demand, as crude oil returns to $115pb. The next natural target for the bulls stands at the latest resistance of $130pb, if cleared will revive the speculation of a further advance toward the $150pb mark. On the index level, the FTSE was the only winner yesterday in Europe as energy companies pushed the index higher with BP and Shell gaining more than 4% each. In green news, the SEC now wants companies to disclose their green actions and Ethereum’s Merge update is getting closer to seeing the daylight as the last test has been running smoothly since March 15.

The week kicks off on a mixed note after the global equities recorded their best week since 2020. Hopes of a diplomatic progress and the Fed hawkishness were pointed as the major catalyzers of the positive move, while there is little to be optimistic about diplomacy in Ukraine, and a tighter monetary policy in the US. Meanwhile, the flattening, and inversion of the US yield curve hints at challenging times ahead. So, does it mean that investors are willing to go long no matter what? Maybe, but picking the right stocks will be more important than ever. For now, energy and commodity stocks, those who pay good dividend and food stocks are among investors’ darlings. Elsewhere, Bitcoin remains offered near the 100-DMA, gold is bid above the $1915 per ounce, and the week will be shaped by Ukrainian news, Covid evolution, British inflation and March flash PMI figures.

US stocks gained on Thursday, as the European indices are back to pre-war levels, yet the sentiment remains mixed. There is relief after Russia avoided default on its interest payment, yet oil prices jump again, and boost inflation expectations and central bank hawks. Except in Japan, which saw inflation surge to a 3-year high, but which remains soft enough to bring the Bank of Japan to say that they would ease more if necessary. Elsewhere, the US dollar is broadly softer, the EURUSD tests the 1.11 offers, the USDTRY is contained after Turkey’s ridiculous decision to keep the policy rate at 14%, and Cable remains under pressure amid the Bank of England statement was perceived as more dovish than expected yesterday. Rising oil and commodity prices and a cheap pound are supportive of the energy and mining heavy FTSE 100 index. In the US, major indices traded in the green yet investors brace for a highly volatile session, as it’s the triple witching day, where a large number of options are set to expire, and there is an unusual amount of near-the-money options that could exacerbate the trading volumes and cause high volatility before the weekly closing bell.

Chinese stocks had their best day since 2008 yesterday, as the government said it will ease the crackdown, support property and technology stocks and stimulate economy. Nasdaq’s Golden Dragon China index gained close to 33%, yet risks prevail: we are still in a China that is no longer the land of opportunity of before Xi Jinping. Plus, US maintains a hardline on the Chinese listings in the US, insisting that the companies listed in the US should provide complete access to audits, with the threat of getting de-listed if they don’t comply. The Federal Reserve (Fed) raised its interest rate by 25bp as expected for the first time since the beginning of the pandemic, and more importantly, said that the rate hikes will continue to tame inflation as the US economy looks strong enough to withstand a rapid normalization to avoid pushing the Fed into a darker stagflation environment. The kneejerk reaction to the decision was an early selloff then a strong rebound.The question is, could it last? Elsewhere, Bitcoin remained stoic despite a broad based risk rally, while the US dollar eased allowing the EURUSD trade above 1.10, and Cable above 1.31. Today, the Bank of England (BoE) and the Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) will give their latest monetary policy verdicts.

‘Difficult and vicious’ are the talks between Ukraine and Russia according to the Ukrainian President Zelensky, but there is room for compromise as he also recognized that being part of the EU or NATO is perhaps a faraway dream for Ukraine. The market sentiment is better today following a strong rebound in three major US indices on Tuesday. But the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the rebound in oil prices could dampen the latest positive mood. On the FX, the higher rates are in theory a positive for the US dollar, the historical data hints at the contrary. Elsewhere, AMC invested near$28 million in a gold and silver mining company, Bitcoin rallied past $41K this morning yet gains remained short-lived, while Russia could default on a USD-denominated bond payments which could be a blow to the banking stocks, but happily, an eventual Russian default is not seen a systemic risk to the global financial markets. Phew.

Rapid decline in oil prices came as a relief to the European stock markets yesterday, yet the lack of diplomatic progress on the Ukrainian war and China’s fresh lockdown to stop the omicron contagion weigh on investors sentiment. Apple shares dived more than 2.50% on Monday, on news that supplier Foxconn had to stop activity in Shenzhen for at least a week. The S&P500 confirmed a death cross formation, and Nasdaq stepped into correction territory. The crude price plunge below the $100pb came as a relief in the middle of a sea of bad news, but it will certainly not prevent the German ZEW sentiment index from freefalling from 48 to 10 in March. What’s next? The downside correction in oil prices is sure a relief when it comes to the inflation expectations, but the new lockdown measures will continue worsening the supply chain crisis and add on the inflation worries. The US producer price data is about to confirm an advance to 10% level in February, as the FOMC starts its two-day meeting today and is expected to raise the interest rates by 25bp for the first time since the beginning of the pandemic. Gold gives back the recent gains as the rising US yields increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-interest-bearing gold, while Bitcoin trades a touch below the $40K mark as EU chose not to ban Bitcoin at yesterday’s crucial vote.

European indices kicked off the week on a positive note, and the US futures recover losses after a red Friday, yet the news from Ukraine are worrying and the risk appetite is certainly not strong. US crude is down by more than 3% despite the escalating tensions in Ukraine, the US dollar is preparing to test the 100 mark, while the S&P500 is now headed to a death cross formation on its daily chart. This week, the US PPI could confirm an advance to 10%, and the Fed, which is expected to raise rates by 25bp could show some more concern about the rising inflation. The Bank of England (BoE) is also seen rising the bank rate, while the Bank of Japan and the Central Bank of Turkey are expected to maintain the status quo. The surge in nickel prices jeopardize the optimism that rising fuel prices would quicken the electric transition. Tesla shares closed the week below the $800 mark, and the downside risks prevail. Elsewhere, Akanda and Genius Group will go public this week, but the IPOs may not trugger the same optimism than last year.

Gains in equities reversed on Thursday, but industrial metals traded south, and crude oil cheapened despite a tense geopolitical environment, as the worries that such a spike in energy and commodity prices would certainly curb the economic growth and slow the global demand took over the worries of a tighter supply. The central banks are increasingly concerned about inflation, and the major ones start giving out signals that they won’t let inflation run too hot, even if it means a slower growth. Christine Lagarde announced on Thursday that the ECB is ready to take ‘whatever action is needed to pursue price stability and to safeguard financial stability’ in Europe. Inflation in the US advanced to 7.9% in February as expected, and that number doesn’t even take into account the latest surge in energy and commodity prices due to the Ukrainian war. In commodities, the upside potential in gold is more than just a safe haven hedge, as the rising geopolitical tensions and the latest sanctions imposed on the Russian central bank will bring the central banks around the world to reconsider their FX holdings, and start shifting towards a nationless gold. The price of an ounce eased below the $2000 mark, yet the price pullbacks could be seen as interesting buying opportunities for those who bet that it’s time for gold to shine again. In equities, the high market volatility and limited visibility makes it hard to give a clear prediction yet the Chinese stocks continue suffering badly, as the prospects are getting worse by the day.

The mind-blowing rally in the European and US stock markets was quite hard to explain. The optimism from the announcement that the EU would issue a massive joint bond to finance the skyrocketing costs of energy, and defense could have helped improve the market mood. And the fact that the oil prices didn’t spike further following the announcement that the US and the UK would ban the Russian oil certainly amplified gains. And the selloff in both the EuroStoxx and the S&P500 and the like were so steep that the correction has been proportional to the loss of blood weeks prior to yesterday’s jaw-dropping rally. Could it last? Not so sure. The European Central Bank (ECB) meets for the first time since the Ukrainian war started, and its decision will be important to give us an idea on where the policymakers stand faced with a war on the continent. The US, on the other hand, will be revealing its latest CPI data today, and analysts expect a further progress in the US inflation to the 7.9% level. Given the actual circumstances, it is of course very well possible that we see an unpleasant surprise, which would send the US inflation above the 8% psychological mark. The question is, by how much the rise in inflation could change the Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations? The US dollar index eased to 98 as a result of a broad rally in equity and currency markets. Gold slipped below the $2000 per ounce, while Bitcoin couldn’t hold the $40K support on rumours that the US regulation may not be harmful to cryptocurrencies.

Joint decision from the US and the UK to ban the Russian oil sent another shockwave to commodity prices yesterday. The European natural gas prices spiked to the all-time-highs and crude oil rallied to $130 mark. Stock markets are highly volatile as uncertainties loom. The European indices rally again this morning, BUT the rallies are mostly driven by intra-day trades, whereas longer term investors are leaving the market; hedge funds and the like are reportedly cutting exposure and covering shorts as visibility became very limited. The VIX index rises steadily, as the selloff in the stocks continue. The S&P500 started the day in the positive and ended 0.72% down, while Nasdaq lost some 0.30%. What really boosts the optimism in the European markets is partly the news that the EU countries will be issuing a massive joint bond to finance energy and defense… so the European Central Bank (ECB) could potentially buy it! Joke aside, the extra massive cash would add to the inflationary pressures in Europe and should, in theory, force the ECB to become more aggressive on its monetary policy despite the Ukrainian threat to the economic recovery. The ECB hawks are therefore in charge of the market and the EURUSD is trading past the 1.09 mark since yesterday. The US dollar index consolidates a touch below the 99 mark, gold spiked to $2070 an ounce & Bitcoin rallied after US Treasury Secretary Yellen accidentally published remarks revealing that Biden's impending crypto order.

Risk sentiment remains weak, as German equities step into the correction territory and the global earnings revisions turn negative. Investors watch oil and commodities, but also the American LNG exporter and cybersecurity stocks that are boosted by the Ukrainian war worries. I give a list of stocks that are interesting to watch for the coming months. In the FX, the US dollar remains strong, the euro weakens against the major peers including the Australian and Canadian dollars, the British pound and the Swiss franc. All eyes are on Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) decision. Elsewhere, the US equities had their worst day since October 2020 and the S&P500 is also about to print a death cross formation on its daily chart. Gold, on the other hand, saw a decent resistance at the $2000 level, yet the war environment could well justify an advance to fresh all-time-high level for the precious metal.

The week starts with a 10% rally in US crude prices after the US Secretary of state Blinken said that the US and its allies now consider an embargo on the Russian oil. The market mood is red, again, this Monday. Cutting off the Russian oil will increase the positive pressure on oil prices and will likely send the price of a barrel above $150 in the foreseeable future. The extended rally in oil and commodity prices will likely bring the European economies to ration consumption and weigh on the economic recovery and the corporate earnings in 2022. Activity in European futures are severely down at the open. US equities are also poised to open in the red. Bitcoin slipped below the $40K mark during the weekend, the US dollar index prepares an advance to the 100 mark, the euro-franc fell below the 1 mark for the first time since 2015 and gold hit $2000 an ounce.

Risk appetite remains limited as the war in Ukraine intensifies. The price of US crude eased below the $110 per barrel yesterday then jump back above $114, on reports that smoke was visible from a nuclear power plant in Ukraine The market mood is deep red. The European stocks continue feeling the pinch of an escalating war, as the US major indices remain under a decent selling pressure, with the fading optimism about Jerome Powell’s announcement that he would back a 25bp hike in March meeting. US dollar, gold and commodities remain in demand. Commodities had their best week since 1974. However, if the things get bad enough to push investors to close their positions, then the US dollar would be, by far, the best hedge. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is giving back the early week gains as it becomes clearer by the day that it won’t be a hassle-free safe haven to investors, as the Western forces are going after the coin to impose strict regulations to prevent Russians from going around the sanctions that are imposed to them. The US NFP data is due today, but the number matters little unless there is a big negative surprise. What really matters is the average hourly earnings which is expected to have risen to 5.8% year-on-year, and which would mean a higher and a sustainable pressure on inflation.

The possibility of another round of discussion between Russia and Ukraine and Jerome Powell’s more dovish than expected testimony saved the day for equity investors yesterday. The S&P500 rallied 1.86%, while Nasdaq gained 1.62% on Wednesday, but the 50-DMA finally crossed below the 200-DMA confirming a long-awaited death cross formation on Nasdaq’s daily chart. Elsewhere, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, the short interest against the energy stocks has peaked to the highest levels in more than a year, as the latest rally in global energy stocks ‘may be petering out, even with oil prices surging to their highest levels since 2014’. But US and Brent crude continue their jaw-dropping advance this morning as OPEC+ decided to maintain its production target unchanged at 400’000 extra barrels per day from April. Among safe havens, demand in US dollar remains strong. Gold performs well, but Bitcoin becomes a risky safe haven as the latest news suggests that the US Department of Justice announced a new task force broadly designed to enforce sanctions, which will also target efforts to use cryptocurrency to evade US sanctions.

The barrel of US crude jumped more than 11.5% yesterday and soared another 2% to $111 mark this morning, as the cruelty of the Ukrainian war pushes the US to ban the purchase of Russian oil. OPEC meets today and its decision is critical for the foreseeable future of the oil markets. So far, the cartel confirmed that they remain committed to the OPEC+ deal with Russia, and they are not expected to change their production boost plans despite the Ukrainian war. But more sanctions are coming in from the governments and companies. Exxon Mobil has finally announced to shut down production in Russia, Total Energies said it won’t invest in new projects, while Apple and Nike halted sales in Russia. The war is now expected to soften the central bank expectations despite soaring inflation. Jerome Powell will testify before the Congress today, and Bullard will talk at an online event. ADP report is due today, but the data will hardly have a material impact on the overall risk appetite as the Ukrainian war remains on top of investors’ priorities these days, even though a typical Western portfolio has limited exposure to Russia.

Yesterday’s talks in Belarus between the Ukrainian and Russian committees were overshadowed by the intensifying military fight in Ukraine. Putin, who seems frustrated with the Ukrainian resistance, and the Westerns sanctions imposed sanctions to the West on his turn by closing its airspace to 36 countries and banning its residents from transferring hard currency abroad. The direct implication of Russin sanctions was a surge in cryptocurrency prices, and especially Bitcoin. Ruble lost more than 30% on Monday and the Russian central bank more than doubled its bank rate to 20% to stop the bleeding. The Russian stock exchange on the other hand remains closed to avoid a bloodbath. BP shares dived near 7% on decision to get rid of 20% stake in Russian Rosneft but are better bid this morning as Shell announced that it will end its alliance with Gazprom, turning all eyes to other oil giants like TotalEnergies and Exxon, which haven’t yet disclosed what they will do. Switzerland, on the other hand, took a major step in its history of neutrality and decided to adopt the full range of Western sanctions imposed on Russia. The commodity trading in Geneva remained mostly intact as the industry has not yet been sanctioned by Europe. The barrel of US crude hit $100 then eased as the US said to consider using 30 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, with an equivalent amount from a group of other countries. The fuel pressure has apparently gotten too much for Germany which announced yesterday that it aims for 100% energy from renewable sources by 2035. Renewable energy stocks took a ride as investors increased their bet of an accelerating green transition. The US futures are flat this morning, and we are now counting down to the death cross formation in Nasdaq, which, along with the tighter Fed expectations and the war pressure may not extend gains sustainably.

The week kicks off with soaring energy prices and a decent selling pressure on European and American index futures as the Russian invasion in Ukraine and the bigger sanctions imposed on Russia take a severe toll on market sentiment. The barrel of US crude jumped more than 5% to $100 this morning, whereas the European natural gas futures closed last Friday 50% higher. The British BP has given the most drastic response among the Western companies to the Russian invasion by selling near 20% stake in the Russian oil giant Rosneft. BP gapped lower at the open. It’s business versus ethics. In the FX, the US dollar is set for another strong session, gold trades a touch above the $1900, as Bitcoin fails to clear the $40K resistance. The US index futures kicked off the week in the negative. Any hopeful news could change the negative sentiment within minutes and send the international stock markets rallying. But the chance of seeing a diplomatic progress is rather slim.

Markets are trading with increased volatility and the price moves become unpredictable. Risks remain tilted to the downside, and price rallies may remain short-lived. Oil rallied past the $100 yesterday, then eased to $96 per barrel, US equities opened deep in the red but closed the session with strong gains. The direct impact of the Ukrainian crisis to US equities could be limited, but the indirect impact, which is the rising energy prices could take a severe toll. This is why the war’s biggest threat to the American companies is inflation. The barrel of US crude traded above the $100 mark yesterday then eased back to around $96 as Joe Biden said the US will release its strategic oil reserves to ease the pressure at the pump. Also, there is increased possibility of a nuclear deal with Iran to unlock the Iranian oil potential - which would provide up to 800’000 barrels of additional supply per day. Bitcoin on the other hand gained on rumours that big Russian money could flow into the coin to avoid the US sanctions. Could it be? What would be the risks and implications of such a migration? Here is the link to the Bloomberg article: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-24/russia-billionaires-could-use-crypto-to-go-around-severe-us-sanctions

Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine; air raid sirens are sounding in the capital Kyiv and Zelensky calls for martial law in national address. It’s panic in the markets panic. The S&P500 futures are down by almost 2%, the Nasdaq futures slipped 2.5% and the DAX and Eurostoxx futures lost near 4% this morning. FTSE futures are down more than 2%, but the British blue-chip index should outperform its European and American peers due to its high commodity exposure. In commodities, the European natural gas futures are already up 10%. Brent crude spiked above the $101 per barrel this morning, as US crude jumped past the $98 mark. Gold flirts with the $1950 per ounce and the bulls are already to target a further advance toward the $2000 threshold. Bitcoin is under a decent selling pressure, as well. Corn futures are up more than 4%, wheat futures are up more than 5%, as Russia is the world’s largest grain wheat exporter. Oat futures, soybean futures, silver, platinum, palladium, all move higher this morning expect for sugar, cotton, orange juice and live cattle. At this point, it’s impossible to bet on any scenario. We can only monitor closely the latest developments and stand ready for more volatility. The VIX index is around the 30 level and should spike higher within the next couple of hours. The combined revenue exposure of the S&P500 to Russia and Ukraine is only about 1%. It’s not much. Yet, the rising energy and commodity prices are a growing threat for the US equities as they will put a further upside pressure on inflation and force the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hand to act more aggressively to tame the inflation. In the FX, the US dollar index is trending higher this morning and the US dollar is certainly a ‘safe’ tactical currency play as the Ukrainian tensions escalate.

S&P500 at correction zone & Nasdaq heads to death cross | MarketTalk: What’s up today? | Swissquote

Market focus remains on Ukraine and Russia, as the US warns that Russia moving its army to the separatist regions in Donbas could mean a larger-scale invasion in the coming days. Russia is suffering from a first round of sanctions. The Nord Stream Pipeline project, which has been one of Putin’s priorities, has been put to coma, and Britain announced some sanctions targeting the banks. Lavrov and Blinken will no longer meet on Thursday. More sanctions are expected in the coming days, but the measures that have been announced so far are not as heavy as feared. Market mood is not cheerful, but the softer-than-feared sanctions somewhat help lifting the mood. The risk appetite is limited, but capital leaves safe haven assets as gold and Japanese yen. Bitcoin is back above the $38K mark, but gains could be fragile as a further rise in geopolitical tensions could pull the price all the way down to the $30K level. The S&P500 stepped into the correction territory after losing 1% at yesterday’s session, as Nasdaq fell to the lowest level since the beginning of the year. Although an improved sentiment regarding the Ukrainian tensions could lead to short term recovery, the US equity selloff is not only due to the Russian tensions. Most of the decline is explained by a quick hawkish shift in the Fed expectations and the prospects of tighter monetary policy remain in play. Elsewhere, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked its official cash rate by 25 basis points to 1% a today’s meeting and Volkswagen said it’s planning an IPO for Porsche. Macy’s and Home Depot fell after announcing their fourth quarter results, as inflation took a toll on profits, as Europe will confirm that inflation hit 5.1% in January.

All hell broke loose yesterday, as the Russian President Putin said on a TV address that he recognizes the Ukraine’s two separatist regions Donetsk and Luhansk as republics. The latest statement also hints to the end of the Minsk agreement and clearly heightens the risk of a Russian invasion in Ukraine in the coming days. Market reaction: equities are under a decent selling pressure, Bitcoin extends losses, natural gas, oil and gold rally, safe haven currencies are up. Expect high volatility in the coming sessions. Elsewhere, Alibaba nosedived on fresh news that authorities asked the Chinese banks to check their exposure to Ant Group, which could further damage the company’s ties with other financial institutions for its online-loan business. Other Chinese tech stocks are also feeling the threat of further government crackdown.

Good mood didn’t last long as the US didn’t let the tensions de-escalate insisting that Russia is certainly not pulling back its troops but is rather increasing its presence at the Ukrainian border. The US warning hit the investor appetite at yesterday’s session and reversed the earlier week gains in stock indices. As a result, the safe have flows boosted gold, again, as crude oil remained steady around the $92 per barrel. US equities were soft but the S&P500 erased a part of losses at a late-session rally after the release of the Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes, the pricing on the fed funds front flipped to give more chance for a 25bp hike in March, instead of a 50-bp hike. In the FX markets, the US dollar remains strong, while the pound-dollar is eking out gains above the 1.35 mark as the high inflation in the UK keeps the Bank of England (BoE) hawks in charge of the market. In the individual stocks, Nvidia’s strong results didn’t boost the share price in the afterhours trading, Virgin Galactic couldn’t extend Tuesday’s days on worries that they may have some execution problems sending people to the moon and Roblox tanked 26% on softer results.

Investors loved the sound of peace and the risk appetite came back yesterday as Russians started pulling a part of their troops back from the Ukrainian border. Although, news of a cyber-attack on some Ukrainian banks and some government websites including the defense ministry’s website raised a couple of eyebrows again, and turned all eyes to the Russians. But there is no report suggesting that Russia is behind the cyber-attack just yet. Oil fell as much as 4% yesterday on de-escalation news. Gold dropped 35 dollars, as the safe haven money poured into the risk assets. European and US indices rallied. But, released yesterday, the US producer inflation data came in as a bad surprise, yet again. With the looming inflation worries, let’s see if today’s FOMC minutes will kill that joy. Hopeful news is that the latest Fed decision was more hawkish than expected, and the minutes could smooth out a part of the extra hawkishness.

There is a certain relief in the Ukraine-Russia crisis as the two sides seem willing to continue their diplomatic efforts to avoid a military action. The latter could help reversing a part of yesterday’s aggressive selloff in the European markets, and the FTSE 100 could outperform its peers on the back of firm energy and oil prices. Base case: no war Ukrainian president criticized news giving a date for a potential Russian invasion and said that it could eventually drop its dream to become part of NATO, as a powerful sign of its commitment to de-escalate the tensions at its Russian border. US producer prices: The S&P500 slid 0.38% and closed just near the 4400 mark, the Dow dropped near 0.50%, as Nasdaq closed Monday’s session flat. Today, the inflation talk continues with the US producer prices due later in the session. Analysts expect a certain easing in the PPI index to 9.1% from last month’s surprise to 9.7%. Given the rise in oil and commodity prices, there is a higher chance of seeing a positive than a negative surprise. Any positive surprise could send the PPI index above the 10% psychological mark and keep the bears in charge of the market, regardless of a more hopeful mood due to the diplomatic efforts between Russia and Ukraine.

The week starts on quite a tense note as the tensions between Ukraine and Russia don’t seem to be headed in the right direction with reports on Friday hinting at the possibility of a Russian invasion before ‘the end of the Beijing Olympics’.

European equities are deep in the red, with FTSE 100 somehow doing less bad than the others on rising energy and commodity prices, but the Euro Stoxx is already down 2.33% and the DAX by 2.85%.

US crudes flirts with the $95 per barrel, and gold welcomes decent safe-haven capital. While US sovereigns, energy and gold are the favorite destinations for those who are seeking protection in the actual environment, any relief on the Ukrainian front could send the recent gains in oil and gold crumbling.

On the economic agenda: US PPI and FOMC minutes will be closely watched. We know that engineering a policy that would bring inflation down to the 2% target in the US would also bring an unnecessary stress on the market and on the economy. Would that help cooling the Fed hawks?

Thursday’s data showed that consumer prices in the US advanced from 7.0% to 7.5% in January, more than 7.3% penciled in by analysts. The Fed hawks came back in charge aggressively following the US inflation print as St Louis President Bullard said he’d ‘like to see 100 basis points in the bag by July 1’. All three major US indices were moody yesterday, but Nasdaq led losses as it’s the most sensitive to the rate changes. Rising hawkish noises from the Federal Reserve (Fed) backed the US dollar. The EURUSD is back below the 1.14 mark and Christine Lagarde insists that acting too fast could choke the economy’s recovery, but not acting at all will choke the economy, as well. In commodities, gold first rallied than fell warning again that it may not be the best inflation hegde at the current levels, but commodity ETFs and energy-heavy stock indices are. In this episode, you will find my favorite inflation hedge plays. Cheers!

Risk appetite was surprisingly strong into the US inflation data, expected to advance to another forty-year high at today’s print, but futures are pointing to the south this morning, as the US inflation data is still a threat to the overall market mood, and could be a pivot moment for this week. There is a decent acceleration in the gold prices, as gold is now behaving positively in risk-on markets, and negatively in risk-off markets given that the rising yields hit appetite in gold as much as they hit appetite in equities. Therefore, if we see the markets changing direction and hit the south, again, we could well see gains in gold crumble and pull the price of an ounce back below the $1800 mark. On the earnings front, news are good. BP, Disney and Uber announced strong earnings. Elsewhere, gains in Bitcoin remained limited below the $38K mark. JP Morgan said that Bitcoin’s fair value is about the $38K level, though the way they compete the fair value may not be … fair after all!

Risk sentiment improves both in the European and the American stock markets since yesterday, thanks to the abating sovereign bond selloff. Financials and mining stocks took the lead, small caps outperformed their big cap peers, with Russell 2000 bouncing 1.63%, whereas gains in the major US indices remained between 0.85% and 1.30%. US crude slipped below the $90 per barrel although the weekly API data suggested a 2-million barrel decline in the US inventories versus the expectation of a 400’000 barrel build. Caution! Improved sentiment is put on the back of more optimism about reopening, meanwhile the hawkish Fed expectations and the rising yields continue being a serious threat to the actual gains, as the major triggers behind the latest bond selloff are still in play. This means that there is a high risk of a sudden mood swing before Thursday’s US inflation data. Elsewhere, Turkey’s finance minister said that inflation in Turkey rose for reasons that foreigners cannot understand, so as a Turkish citizen, let me explain why!

US equities lack a clear direction as the sovereign bond selloff intensifies across the globe, pressuring the yields higher, and the equity valuations lower. But, cryptocurrencies are on the rise, with meme coins gaining the most in the crypto space despite poor and volatile risk appetite. In FX, the EURUSD faces important resistance between 1.1480/1.1550 before we call it the end of the weak euro against the US dollar, the GPBUSD may not keep it above the 1.35 while the Turkish lira is stoic to the global FX moves, and sky-rocketing inflation in Turkey. In stock news, Peloton, due to announce earnings today, is in focus on rumours that it could be the acquisition target for Big Tech companies including Apple, Amazon and Disney. Why would anyone buy Peloton?

US futures traded flat in the overnight trading session, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) hawks came back in charge following strong job additions, and solid wages growth in the latest US jobs data. This week the attention will shift from corporate earnings to macroeconomic data, more specifically to latest US consumer price index that could have advanced to 7.3% in the US in January. Fear of a stronger inflation will likely keep the investor appetite limited until the data release. Chinese stocks rallied as Chinese investors returned from a week-long Lunar New Year break, and they had some gains to catch up with. Plus, the better-than-expected Caixin services PMI offered a roaring start to the Tiger Year, but the rest of Asia looks much less promising with stock in Japan, Hong Kong and Australia trading in the red due to the stronger hawkish Fed expectations. The US dollar rebounded from its 100-DMA, Bitcoin finally cleared the $40K resistance. In this environment of still low yields, rising inflation & uncertainty, investing in high dividend payers & staking coins could be interesting.

Facebook got severely hammered yesterday, weighing badly on the S&P500 and Nasdaq. But Amazon rallied near 20%, hinting at a uptick note in tech stocks at the weekly closing bell. A last thing to watch before the bell is the US jobs data, make sure you don’t get carried away with potentially ugly NFP number, as wages growth is what matters the most for Fed expectations. The wages growth will be more important than the number of nonfarm jobs added to the US economy at today’s release, because first, we know that the December numbers are heavily shaken by the omicron wave and it’s not representative of the overall health of the US jobs market, and second, even if we see a negative NFP print, it won’t matter much for the Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations! Elsewhere, the barrel of crude finally pulled out the $90 resistance, the EURUSD is preparing to test the 1.15 after Lagarde’s confession that inflation in Europe will last longer than previously thought. March update to projections will be decisive in what the ECB will do next, but we already know that March projections will include high inflation, and will probably say ‘raise the rates, Christine!’.

Yesterday’s ADP data showed that the US economy lost some 300’000 private jobs in December, versus 185’000 job additions expected by analysts, but no one cared. Google jumped by more than 7% yesterday to a fresh record high on the back of strong earnings. Nasdaq gained for the fourth consecutive session adding another 0.50% to its gains. But don’t uncork the champagne just yet! Because the Nasdaq futures are trading more than 2% lower at the time of writing. Disappointing Facebook results, and a 23% plunge in Meta shares in the afterhours trading calls for a red session in the US. Amazon is the last FAANG stock to announce earnings today, and the company is expected to reveal a second consecutive month of earnings decline. Ouch. Inflation in the Eurozone hit 5.1% in December. So, all eyes are on Christine Lagarde and what she has to say at today’s press conference. Will she insist that inflation is transitory or will she finally accept the defeat, and call it a problem? Across the Channel, the Brits will probably raise their interest rates by another 25bp for the second time at today’s meeting. Elsewhere, OPEC maintained its production increase target at 400’000 barrels per day and the consensus is a further advance in crude oil to $100pb in the foreseeable future.

US stocks gained for the third consecutive session, and the gains seemed more stable this time, as the VIX index retreated below the 22 mark. The Federal Reserve (Fed) storm is coming to an end, with most hawkish expectations already factored in the asset prices, and the strong corporate earnings help equities bind up their wounds. We have two important events on today’s macro calendar: the OPEC meeting and the US ADP report.

OPEC: no need to hold your breath… OPEC will discuss whether and by how much they should increase its oil output at today’s meeting. But whatever happens, crude prices are poised for an advance towards the three-digit levels in the coming months given that global glut declines faster than expected due to a stronger recovery in demand, and ongoing supply constraints. PS: Higher energy costs also mean a higher inflation, and a tighter Fed, but that reasoning has been widely priced in already.

US jobs don’t really matter According to the latest JOLTS data, more than 10 million Americans quit their jobs in December and today’s ADP data is expected to reveal that the US economy added 185K new private jobs in the final month of 2021 versus more than 800’000 printed a month earlier. Yet we know that the December ADP figure could come much smaller than that; we could even see a negative print today as the omicron may have taken a severe toll on the US jobs market in December. But it won’t matter for the Fed expectations!

The S&P500 finished January with a strong two-day rally, but the index is still more than 5% lower than where it kicked off the year, having recorded its worst month since March 2020. Nasdaq closed yesterday’s session up by more than 3% for the second day in a row. Nasdaq is already up by almost 9% from the January dip. Yet, 3-4% gains are often sign of high volatility and stress, and they could easily melt down in no time. What we need to see now is smaller but more sustainable gains to call the end of the January selloff. Good news is that the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials start sending softer messages and the hawkish pricing is mostly done, which could lead to some more recovery in US stocks, especially of the upcoming earnings are strong, and in Bitcoin. Exxon, Google, General Motors, AMD and EA are among the most closely monitored companies due to announce their Q4 earnings.

US stocks recorded a last-minute rally on Friday, but gains remain on jeopardy as the hawkish Fed expectations and the Russia-Ukraine tensions are weighing on the risk appetite. The geopolitical tensions, in fact, push energy prices higher, further boosting the inflation fears and the Fed hawks. The consensus now is that the Fed would raise the interest rates five times this year. In this environment, US dollar is certainly a good place to park, while gold is doing surprisingly poorly despite having most factors that would normally support a better pricing on its side. In the stock markets, value stock investors are finally being praised for their patience. At today’s episode, I have an interesting comparison of Warren Buffet and Cathi Wood’s performances over the past two years!

US equities went from gains to losses, yet again, as the Ukrainian tensions, which support the rally in energy prices, and by doing so further boosts the inflation expectations and the Fed hawks didn’t do good to the overall market mood. US dollar extended rally as the US yields continued pushing higher. The EURUSD slipped below the 1.12 mark. Although it has been a blood-red month for the US equities, the FTSE 100 managed to eke out 3% gains in January, as a sign that the British blue-chip index is in a good place to be the winner of the finally-happening reflation trade. In equity news, Tesla tanked more than 11% yesterday, as investors focused on the warnings that chip shortage could take a toll on performance this year, rather than the record-high profits (which were already factored in the stock price). Apple, on the other hand, gained 5% in the afterhours trading as the results showed that the sales soared despite the chip shortage worries, helping Apple announce a better-than-expected revenue in the most important holiday quarter!

Jerome Powell didn’t really sooth investors’ nerves at yesterday’s policy statement. He said that the Federal Reserve (Fed) won’t refrain from back-to-back rate hikes to get the inflation situation straight. His words sent the US stocks lower, and the US dollar higher. Today, the US will reveal its latest GDP data, and the expectation is that the US may have grown some 5.5% in the Q4. Any positive surprise could further revive the Fed hawks, while any negative surprise would barely tickle the doves, unless the numbers are real ugly, which I doubt. In the FX, the US dollar had a strong session on the back of a decidedly hawkish Fed. Bitcoin came under selling pressure again, and appetite in US crude remained strong. In corporate news, Tesla announced record profits, Microsoft eked out gains despite a negative kneejerk reaction to its Q4 results & Netflix failed to attract dipbuyers. Today, it’s Apple’s turn to confess, and any weakness could be a buy opportunity, says Morgan Stanley.

Trading in the US equities remains hectic, unpredictable and full of surprises. The escalating tensions in the Ukrainian border, Biden threatening Putin with personal sanctions, IMF cutting the US and Chinese growth outlooks, combined to the hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations are mostly responsible with the rising volatility and confusion among investors. Yet it could soon be time to chill for the Fed hawks, as the Fed hasn’t got anything to gain in sending out hawkish messages today: slaughtered equity markets won’t help them to get the inflation situation straight. On the contrary, a deep dive in the financial markets would only refrain the Fed from doing what it’s got to do and worsen inflation. Strong Big Tech earnings on the other hand barely satisfy investors, as anything less than perfectly ideal gets the stocks to drop like flies. Tesla is the next to announce its Q4 earnings. Elsewhere, Bitcoin recovers yet the downside pressures are unlikely to fade, as the falling chip inventories may become a greater headache for the crypto-industry.

The S&P500 and Nasdaq dived 4% before reversing losses and closing the session in the green. But yesterday’s rebound doesn’t mean the equity markets are out of the woods just yet. On the contrary, the rising volatility hints at further market turbulence ahead, as investors are worried aout the Fed tightening, the Ukrainian war threat, and some unachieved goals on Biden’s political agenda as the Build Back Better & Chinese trade deficit. The FOMC starts its two-day meeting today, yet given the bloodbath in equity markets, the policymakers could refrain from reviving the Fed hawks. But even with an eventually softer Fed statement, and some market correction, there is a slim chance we see meme stocks, SPAC deals, or highly speculative names doing well in an environment of tighter Fed liquidity. There is, on the other hand, a better chance for companies like Apple and Microsoft to navigate through a high turbulence market. So, the Fed tightening will certainly support the reflation trade, but it will more importantly trigger a flight to quality.

Netflix dived up to 25% in Friday, pulling Nasdaq along with it. Bitcoin hit the $34K during the weekend on poor risk appetite due to the hawkish Fed expectations. FOMC meets this week, yet most of the hawkish cards have already been played, which suggests that the week could see some recovery in risk assets. Yet, investors need breath-taking earnings from the US Big Tech to stop worrying about a further tech meltdown. Apple, Microsoft and Tesla are among the most monitored companies due to release their Q4 earnings this week. Elsewhere, Rivian and Sono Motors shares continue their journey south. Many investors wonder whether the current prices could be an opportunity to buy a dip, yet the macro environment remains less than ideal for these stocks to shine in the foreseeable future.

We saw a second day of gains then losses in major US indices. The stocks first rallied on the idea that the Federal Reserve (Fed) hawks may have gone ahead of themselves with the pricing of a 50bp rate hike in March, then gave in to the bad thoughts. Nasdaq was trading almost 2% higher when the wind turned direction abruptly, sending the index below its 200-DMA. Is this the beginning of a further dive? Possible… What’s sure is Netflix will feel the pinch of lower subscription growth forecast at the open as the stock price dived 20% in the afterhours trading. Zooming out. The Fed must fight back inflation because it’s gone just too far to threaten the economic health of the country, but they can’t do it with heavily hemorrhaging financial markets. Therefore, the idea of 50bp is certainly far stretched, and the corresponding pricing should be scaled back, which should give a certain relief to the risk assets in the coming sessions. But of course, the corporate earnings must be strong, as the actual Big Tech pricing reflects a fantastic earnings growth for the coming quarters, and investors won’t settle with anything less than fireworks. Elsewhere, Bitcoin fell below $40K on the back of an overall lack of risk appetite, and the news that Russia wants to ban the use and the mining of cryptocurrencies. Are they right, are they wrong and more importantly, are we mistaken on the potential purpose of use of cryptocurrencies?

Market sentiment is mixed. There is a certain will to buy a dip in US indices, yet the aggressive hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) pricing doesn’t allow the appetite to get restored. It results in hectic pricing as the US yields go up. The sharp rise in US yields is the number one reason pushing the stock indices lower since the start of this year, and the major indices are much more vulnerable to interest rate hikes now than they were before, because the Big Tech has an increased weight in the indices, and they are vulnerable to rate hikes. Limited risk appetite and mounting tensions between Ukraine and Russia support a rise in gold prices despite the rising US yields. Ukraine-Russia tensions, combined with OPEC+ struggle to revive output are also giving an extra push to the oil bulls. Strong earnings are the only hope for the equity bulls in the short-run. The bank earnings have been strong, but not perfect. Netflix will be the first FAANG stock to reveal its Q4 results. The expectations are soft, while the tech stocks don’t have the luxury of deceiving their investors at an environment of rising Fed expectations, so a softer-than-expected set of results could further hammer the investor appetite.

Microsoft buys Activision Blizzard to enter the metaverse, Walmart announced it will throw its won cryptocurrency. But no news is enough to give a smile to investors who are too worried about the rising US yields. The US 2-year yield is now above the 1% mark, and the US 10-year yield is flirting with the 1.90% level. We are now at the pre-pandemic levels, so wondering whether it could slow down the Fed hawks? And if it does, could it reverse the selloff in US equities. In a separate discussion, I explain why staking stablecoins could be risky and what risks you should consider when you aim for the staking income.

It was quiet session yesterday as the US stock and bond markets remained closed for bank holiday, while the European equities kicked off the week mostly in the positive, especially with the FTSE 100 leading gains in Europe thanks to the rising oil prices. US crude advanced to the $85pb mark having gained close to 12% just since the start of the year and the FTSE 100 is now surfing on the positive energy vibe. And equities, especially the cyclical sectors, are the best place to seek a solid hedge against inflation, meanwhile gold could fall off the race due to rising US yields. US is back after a long weekend, Nasdaq futures hint at a soft start as investors seem to be fleeing the growth stocks in favour of value ones, in line with the so-called reflation trade. In the FX, the US dollar crash is seen temporary, in Europe, inflation is seen transitory, and in Japan, the rising consumer prices are seen as a dream come true!

China exceeded the growth expectations, but the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) cut the policy rate to reverse the slowing growth. That was certainly good news for the doves, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations get increasingly more dovish to the four-decade high inflation in the US. In fact, inflation went to high that even the banks see it reversing the positive impacts on earnings and profits. Sentiment is mixed this Monday, the US dollar index rebounds from its 100-dma, pulling the EURUSD and GBPUSD lower. Dogecoin rallied 20% after payments in Doge went live on Tesla’s website on Friday, but the upside remained short-lived. Bitcoin traders are confused: in one hand the death cross formation calls for deeper downside, but on the other hand, holding support at $40K could give the coin a boost to reverse the actual selloff.

Optimism about a less dovish speech from the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell and a ‘not higher than expected’ inflation print earlier this week remained rather short-lived, as other FOMC officials didn’t beat about the bush and hinted at an imminent rate hike in the US. Rate-sensitive Nasdaq fell the most among the major US indices, as losses in the Dow Jones, which is believed to be better equipped to cope with higher rates remained limited. In the FX, one would’ve expected the US dollar to recover on the back of a series of hawkish comments from the Fed officials, but the dollar index continued to move lower. Investor attention shifts from macro data to corporate earnings as a couple of big banks are due to release their Q4 earnings today, including JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, BlackRock and Citigroup. There is no doubt that financials will benefit from a rising interest rate environment. But, expectations on bank earnings got quite high, which means that they now they must live up to these strong expectations to keep the rally going. On the other hand, good earnings are the only thing that could clear investors’ heads from the Fed-induced bearish thoughts.

It has been a relief to see the US inflation not going above the expectations for once! The consumer price index in the US rose 7% y-o-y in December, the highest pace in four decades, BUT, the figure was in line with analyst expectations, and brought forward the idea that this could be the point we see a peak in the inflation levels and light at the end of the long and dark inflation tunnel. But, this is just a bet for now, as we haven’t seen the data print a number lower than a previous one just yet. Yesterday’s data was still stronger than the previous month’s read of 6.8%. And today’s PPI read should confirm that the factory-gate prices may have advanced to 9.8% in December in the US. US stock indices reacted positively to the four-decade high inflation read yesterday. There is potential for further recovery in US equities given that the Federal Reserve (Fed) hawks went ahead of themselves at the start of the year. With the Fed hawks losing field, the dollar index tanked below the 95 mark and even slipped below its past six-month up-trending channel base. The EURUSD and the GBPUSD are up. US crude on the other hand consolidates above $80pb, and the European energy stocks are on fire! What’s the upside potential?

Global equities breathed a sigh of relief yesterday as the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell said, at his congressional confirmation yesterday, that he could pull off the hard task of fighting back inflation without damaging the economy. All eyes are on the US inflation as today’s data may reveal that consumer prices in the US advanced to or above the 7% mark, a four-decade high. US dollar is giving toppish signs as the dollar index slipped below its 50-dma, where it had been finding support for the past six months. The EURUSD finally broke above its 50-dma average, gold advanced to $1821 per ounce and US crude is drilling into the above-$80pb offers. Elsewhere, Tesla sold a record amount of cars in China, and the success is not a coincidence.

Yesterday was quite a stressful session for stock traders as we saw an aggressive selloff at the beginning of the session, which, then softened, brought back the ‘dip-buyers’. Warnings that the Q4 sales may have not been as strong as expected from some retailers like Lululemon dampened the mood, which was already well fragilized by the hawkish Fed expectations after the US jobs figures supported the idea that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could and should move fast to rectify its relaxed behaviour against inflation last year. The question is, does the Fed have any interest in wreaking havoc in the financial markets just to fight back inflation? The answer is no. This is why the whole thing is data-dependent and given how hawkish the market shifted recently, there is a chance we see a certain softening in hawks’ positioning, which could lead to a certain positive correction to the latest equity selloff. But - and there is always a but - the appetite is of course dependent on tomorrow’s inflation read in the US. Elsewhere, Bitcoin holds ground near the $40K mark but technicals remain favourable for further decline, and the German 10-year bund yield is preparing to step above zero for the first time in three years hinting that the EURUSD could clear the 50-dma offers.

Market sentiment is mixed following the unnerving jobs data revealed in the US last Friday. Much lower-than-expected NFP print, and higher wages has been an explosive cocktail for the Federal Reserve (Fed) hawks, as not only the soft NFP data couldn’t get the Fed doves moving, but the improved unemployment rate and the rising wages boosted the Fed hawks. There is now a stronger case for the first rate hike to happen as early as in March in the US. So, the first week of 2022 hasn’t been as glorious as the first trading hours suggested it would be and the sentiment of uncertainty could well continue into Wednesday’s US inflation data. The persistent rise in consumer inflation could further boost the Fed hawks, bring them to price a steeper normalization path, and more importantly fuel the expectation that the Fed should rapidly reduce the size of its balance sheet to avoid flattening the yield curve while fighting back inflation. But there is one hope: the latest earnings season will kick off this week, and higher rate prospects have certainly not interfered with the corporate performances just yet. Elsewhere, Kazakhstan is now moving towards suppressing the rebellion in the country helped by Russians, and perhaps Chinese. Bitcoin held ground near the $40K during the weekend, while Gamestop shares rallied 7% on news that the company enters NFT & cryptocurrencies.

Selloff in equities stabilizes, with the S&P500 and Nasdaq closing the day with minor losses only. US and European stock futures turned positive in the overnight trading session, hinting at consolidation before the weekly closing bell. Yet, uncertainties persist as investors got unsettled with the latest FOMC minutes this week. Important for the mood today will be the US jobs data. On Wednesday, the ADP report revealed a much better-than-expected number. Today, the NFP is expected to reveal that the US economy added 400’000 new nonfarm jobs. But the jobs data doesn’t matter much for the Fed policy expectations right now, what matters for the Fed is inflation. Elsewhere, the unrest in Kazakhstan is shaking the energy, uranium, and Bitcoin markets. Selloff in Bitcoin intensifies with the lack of risk appetite and the internet shutdown in Kazakhstan due to the mounting social unrest. Kazakhstan is one of the biggest power houses for Bitcoin miners, and the internet shutdown in Kazakhstan hits Bitcoin’s computational power. The coin is now ready to test the $40K psychological support, which may not bring in the dip buyers just yet, as the prospects of a tighter monetary policy will likely continue weighing on the mood.

Yesterday has been a deep red day for the US equities, as the FOMC minutes hinted at earlier and a faster rate normalization path, and the reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet soon after the first rate hike. The extra hawkish element hammered the sentiment sending the US yields higher and the equities lower. The better-than-expected ADP data certainly gave an extra support to the Fed hawks. We are now stepping into a period where good data is bad as it fuels the Fed hawks, and bad data is bad, as well, because it can’t fuel the Fed doves. Bitcoin fell and appetite in gold remained much contained as the steep rise in US yields overshadowed the incentive to seek safe-haven protection. Elsewhere, the race in electric car industries heats up. Ford will double capacity for F-150 Lightning truck, and Chevrolet joins the electric truck race, while Amazon announced a deal with Stellantis… the news somewhat got perceived as if Amazon was cheating on Rivian, and send Rivian’s stock price 11% lower!

Market mood turned sour in the US trading yesterday, and the latest data showed that 4.5 million Americans quit their jobs in November. 4.5 million is a lot of job departures, but there is nothing the Federal Reserve (Fed) could do about it, as the root cause of the problem is not the lack of job openings. Today’s ADP data is expected to reveal that the US economy added 400’000 private jobs in December. That would be less than a tenth of what has been lost in November. So the question is, does the jobs data even matter anymore? US equity indices retreated yesterday, and yesterday’s price action is mostly driven by higher interest rate expectations. In the forex, the US dollar remains strong, and that strength is pushing the EURUSD below the 1.13 mark. The sterling bulls, however, defend well their territory against a broadly stronger US dollar and a push above the 100-DMA, near the 1.3560 mark, should throw a basis to a medium term bullish reversal in Cable. In cryptocurrencies, appetite in Bitcoin remains contained near the 200-dma and the coin is testing the low end of the December horizontal channel base, which is near $45K level. One explanation for the lack of appetite is the rising US yields, which are applying a visible downside pressure on the pricing of cryptocurrencies. And gold is now trading above both its 50, 100 and 200-DMA, but the positive attempt to the $1830 level remained short-lived. It will be interesting to see how the rising US yields, which increases the opportunity cost of holding the non-interest-bearing gold, will play out in the coming months for gold investors.

New Year and a fresh record for the S&P500! The index kicked off the year with a first minute goal after recording 70 closing highs in 2021. Nasdaq rallied 1.20% at the first trading session of the year, as Apple finally hit the $3 trillion valuation and Tesla jumped 13.5% after reporting breath-taking car sales last quarter and last year. Globally, there is a lot of news regarding the rising omicron cases, but there is also a lot of news that the omicron cases are not as deadly as the previous variants of Covid. And investors prefer focusing on a glass half full rather than a glass half empty at the start of the year. In currencies, the US dollar remains in demand, the US dollar index is bid above the 50-dma, which is somewhere near 95.60, and the USDJPY surged to the highest levels since 2017, but the positive trend could soon run out of breath, as suggests the historical data. Bitcoin on the other hand remains stoic faced with a strong risk appetite, and consolidates below its 200-dma. Finally, US crude is pushing higher above its 50-dma before today’s OPEC decision, where no surprise is expected. OPEC countries have rather a positive outlook for oil demand in the coming months as they focus on the recovery and reopening rather than on hundreds of flight cancellations and the restricted economic activity of the moment due to the omicron wave.

Trading volumes should remain thin for a couple of more hours due to bank holiday in many places, but the week will be busy with the OPEC decision, FOMC minutes, the US jobs data and the preliminary Eurozone inflation figures for December.

Electric carmakers, especially Tesla, should see a strong appetite after reporting record sales for the last quarter, and for the last year. Yet, the Chinese electric carmakers, and other Chinese stocks will likely remain under the shadow of the growing crisis in China’s property market despite revealing record car shipments in December, as well.

Welcome to the last episode of Market Talk of the year. In this episode, I discuss the New Year resolutions, which sectors will likely do well, what to watch, where to be careful.

There are US and Chinese tech giants, electric cars, cryptocurrencies, traditional currencies, energy stocks, reflation, the Fed and much more!

European and US markets rebounded yesterday, as investors shrugged off the worries of omicron, while of course, the news flow is far from ideal. Nasdaq jumped almost 2.50% due to a renewed optimism, while the S&P500 closed the session 1.80% higher. Oil rallied 4%. Plus, the US Food and Drug Administration will likely authorize a Covid pill from Pfizer and Merck that would treat Covid-19, and that could be another brake to the pandemic and maybe a new milestone in humanity’s fight against Covid. Of course, the thinning holiday volumes and the rising volatility is partly responsible for the strong jump in equity prices, as the moves are exacerbated by low liquidities. But the same would be true for the downside corrections. In this context, any price pullback would also be bigger than the normal times. Investors should remain cautious with big ups and downs into the Xmas break, as the tighter Federal Reserve (Fed) pricing remains in play.

The EURUSD remains under the pressure of a broadly stronger US dollar, but the Turkish lira consolidates gains.

Bitcoin has just traded above its December descending channel top but the appetite remains fragile.

The US markets kicked off the week on a negative note. All three major US indices slumped yesterday, and both the S&P500 and Nasdaq fell close to their 100-DMA and the lower end of their medium-term ascending channel base. The major responsible for the bad mood was not necessarily the omicron worries but rather seeing Biden’s $2 trillion Build Back Better project rejected by Manchin. But US index futures recorded a strong rebound in the Asian session, with Nasdaq futures up by as much as 1%. With the rising volatility, we could see Santa taking back the reins from Manchin for the next couple of sessions. Low trading volumes could help exacerbate any rebound.

The lira Turkey went from tears to laughter within a single trading session yesterday. I discuss in detail what I liked and what I didn’t in the new economic plan, and whether the gains in the lira could last, or is it just a flash in a pan…

Turkish lira is hammered again this morning, but the risk appetite is bad across the global markets as well, as investors are weighing the rising omicron threat, and the risk of a bigger negative impact on the global economic recovery than first thought. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve (Fed) has little alternative but to tighten its policy fast enough to fight the overheating inflation and hope of seeing Joe Biden’s hope $2 trillion-dollar economic package see the daylight one day is evaporating. So, the market mood is not great into the Xmas holidays. Plus, it will be a slow trading week, where we will see the trading volumes thinning, which could bring along some more volatility in asset prices.

US crude is down by almost 4% this morning, Bitcoin bulls and bears are battling around the 200-DMA, and the overall lack of risk appetite is giving a hand to the bears, while gold is testing the $1800 per ounce to the upside. But the safest safe-haven is still the US dollar where the tighter Fed and the rising US yields support a positive divergence in greenback against other major central bank currencies, and some investors could find interesting to convert back to the US dollars to navigate the actual uncertainties.

Risk sentiment turned suddenly sour on Thursday. Nasdaq tanked 2.5% and the S&P500 slid close to 0.87% from ATH levels, as investors weighed the possible negative impacts of a tighter Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, the rising omicron cases, and the fact that Biden’s $2 trillion won’t pass the legislation this year. Volatility is rising again, lowering the predictability of what may happen next. Although this week gave little answer about whether we will see a Santa rally, we now have a clearer roadmap about what should happen on the US monetary policy front. Therefore, there is chance of seeing one last record before we close the year on the index level. On the central banks front, the Bank of England (BoE) raised its rate by 15 basis points to 0.25% and became the first major central bank to raise the rates, the European Central Bank (ECB) made a hawkish tweak to its policy, announcing the end the PEPP program by next March (yet they will double the APP purchases to ease the transition!), and Turkey defied the market cutting its repo rate by 100bp. The lira got hammered again. In this episode, I share my prediction on what could happen in Turkey, and where the US indices may be within next 6 months.

A relief rally following the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting is what’s in play right now, as yesterday’s decision, though hawkish was mostly priced in. The Fed announced it will double the pace of QE tapering by buying $30 billion less Treasuries and MBS for the months ahead. It will be done with the asset purchases altogether sometime early 2022, then will come the first rate hike by spring. And according to the median forecast of the famous dot plot, the first spring rate hike won’t be the last; the Fed would proceed with two more rate hikes during the course of next year. The major US indices first fell then rebounded. And the rebound was rather strong. The US tech giants had a great session; the announcement that there will be a 75bp hike next year didn’t hit the investor appetite for these giant growth stocks. The inflation talk is heating up in Europe as well, and the latest inflation data in Britain showed that inflation exceeded the 5% mark in November, while the BoE was expecting to end the year somewhere near 4%. Yet, no one expects to see a rate action from the BoE today. Nor from the ECB. And of course no action from the Swiss National Bank which swiftly follows the ECB in its decisions. Another place of interest is Turkey, where the lira has sat on the headlines, losing 80% of its value against the US dollar since the beginning of September. It’s Erdogan against the market. But there will be only one winner!

Yesterday’s US producer price index came as a slap in the market’s face, as the latest data showed that goods costed close to 10% more at the factory gate in November, a terribly high number for the US that the Federal Reserve (Fed) must deal with ASAP. Investors’ eyes popped out of their heads when they saw the 9.6% PPI figure, and the hawkish expectations topped sending Nasdaq more than 2% lower during the session. The technology-heavy index still recovered to the close, but ended the session more than 1% lower. The S&P500 slid 0.75% and the Dow dropped some 0.30%. The kneejerk reaction to the US PPI data is reasonable, but it may be more fear than harm when it comes to how strong the Fed will react to it. Walking in today’s decision, we already know that the most important take of this year’s last FOMC meeting is inflation being no more ‘transitory’. We already know that the Fed is preparing to announce a faster QE taper, and to hint at perhaps sooner and faster rate hikes to cool down the inflationary pressures. And that’s already mostly priced in. But the possibility of a hawkish surprise from the Fed keeps appetite in Bitcoin limited, while Dogecoin rallies after Elon Musk’s tweet suggesting that Tesla will sell merch in exchange of Dogecoin. Elsewhere, Harles Davidson is going green but the conviction seems to be low for its electric motorcycles for now.

Five stocks are behind a third of the S&P500 rally, a fact that worries some analysts but not the others. The overall risk sentiment is mixed as the Federal Reserve (Fed) starts its two-day meeting where it is expected to announce a faster QE tapering and to hint at perhaps earlier and faster rate hikes. As such, risk-on assets like Nasdaq and Bitcoin are under pressure, although the Fed decision could bring along a relief rally given that the hawkish expectations are mostly factored in the market prices, and a no surprise meeting should give investors a sigh of relief. While the Fed decision is predictable, the Turkish central bank’s decision, due Thursday, is much less! The market is calling for a significant rate hike to cover the risks of a high and rising inflation I Turkey, but the central bank doesn’t move an inch toward that direction, and prefers selling its FX reserves instead. The FX sales are nothing but a waste of time and money, and could hardly save the CBT from hiking the rates in the coming weeks – if not in a scheduled policy meeting, it would be in a mid-night emergency meeting.

Risk sentiment is relatively strong this Monday on news that China will add fiscal stimulus in early 2022 to boost growth, and investor mood in the equities space is bullish after Friday’s inflation data revealed that consumer prices in the US advanced to 6.8% in November, just a tick higher than the consensus of 6.7% (although relatively faster compared to the 6.2% printed a month earlier). If the investors didn’t react too strongly to the slightly worse-than-expected US inflation data, it is certainly because they were happy to see the actual number just a bit higher than consensus. And the latest acceleration was mostly priced in, but the FOMC meeting is important to determine the market mood and answer the question: will we see a Santa rally to the year-end? The Fed tightening will be the first important test for cryptocurrencies. We have stronger evidence that cryptocurrencies are increasingly correlated positively to the risk assets. Therefore, we expect to see Bitcoin trading with a high beta, meaning with amplified gains and losses compared to major market indices. But this is just an assumption. We don’t rule out that the behaviour in cryptocurrencies could change fast as this is a new asset class. But the chances of Bitcoin acting like a hedge against inflation, or a hedge against a severe market rout are low.

It may be a challenging day with the US inflation data looming, but I will start with this: JP Morgan research says that ‘2022 will be the year of a FULL global recovery, an end of the global pandemic and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the Covid-19 outbreak’ The major event of the week is today’s US inflation data. Consolidation and profit taking are in play across the US markets. The Dow Jones ended Thursday’s session flat, but the S&P500 lost 0.72% and Nasdaq dropped 1.71%. Plus, the mood in Asian session was sourish, as Evergrande has officially been labeled as a defaulter. The news came as no shocker and the losses in the Asian session were moderate. The US consumer inflation may have accelerated to 6.7% last month. If this is the case, it would be the highest levels since the beginning of the ‘80s. And given that the recovery in the US labour market has progressed well with the latest unemployment rate showing an improvement to 4.2%, the Fed will do what it’s got to do to deal with the rising US inflation: tighten the policy. Nonetheless, it feels like the inflationary pressures are now approaching a cycle peak, and that there is a chance that we see a softer than expected number as soon as at today’s read. Else, I came across a very interesting Bloomberg article on how luxury brands are making millions selling NFTs for metaverse. Here is the link for a weekend read! https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-09/luxury-fashion-brands-are-already-making-millions-in-the-metaverse

Apple is about to become a $3-trillion company as investors just can’t have enough of it! Some analysts say the stock is undervalued at the current levels, and the fattening process can only accelerate for Apple and the other tech giants as big calls for bigger! The mood elsewhere is a bit more contained compared to the prior sessions, but small gains are good news as they show that a consolidation is underway. The easing volatility is a sign that the gains are more sustainable than what they appeared to be a couple of sessions ago. Of course, that does not mean that tomorrow’s US inflation data will be piece of cake¨! On the virus front, worries that omicron will cause trouble are waning, but a new strain is found in Australia, and it is harder to detect with a PCR test. The latter news call for caution with the airline and travel stocks!

Nasdaq soared 3% on Tuesday, the S&P500 gained 2% and the Dow, which was benefiting from a reflation divergence over the past couple of days added another 1.40%. Not all headlines are rosy, yet the perception is very optimistic. In theory, such strong gains are sign of instability and should be taken with caution, so we should see some consolidation and correction in the next trading hours. We already see the European index having hard time extending past sessions’ gains. Elsewhere, the strong risk rally, the easing omicron worries, and lower US oil inventories give a boost to oil prices, but gains in Bitcoin remain timid. In stock news, Intel will let Mobileye fly on its own, and the announcement has been welcomed b investors. Yet the latest news will hardly help Intel reverse the negative trend.

Bank ratings flow in as it’s the end of the quiet period for Rivian and they look rather… strong! Tesla, Lucid Group and Donald Trump’s DWAC under pressure of SEC news. Overall, equities, especially the reopening stocks, benefit from encouraging news that the omicron symptoms are rather ‘mild’ and that the People’s Bank of China loosens its purse’s strings to provide support to the Chinese economy, but the upcoming US inflation is a threat to the market mood. Alibaba rallied, gold is steady below the $1800 mark and Bitcoin advances past the $51K mark. Bitcoin is a high-risk asset, however, there is clear evidence that Bitcoin is paving its way to the traditional finance, and that institutional investors are increasingly on board. It still doesn’t make it a hedge against inflation, nor a safe haven, but it makes it a stronger alternative investment vehicle where we could see the size of one-off drops reduce over time.

Cryptocurrencies had an agitated weekend, with a 20% drop recorded in Bitcoin’s price on Saturday to as low as $42K per coin. Only half of the losses have been recovered so far. But the Saturday drop raised a big question for the crypto traders: is it an opportunity to buy the dip? The weekend selloff in Bitcoin was likely the continuation of the heavy selloff in the US equity markets following a mixed US jobs report before the weekly close. The US economy added some 210’000 new nonfarm jobs in November, which was much less than 550K penciled in by analysts, but the participation rate improved, and the unemployment rate fell surprisingly to 4.2% from 4.6% printed a month earlier, and versus 4.5% expected by the market. For a second, investors didn’t know how to interpret the data! All three major US indices fell, but Nasdaq suffered the most with almost 2% drop into the close.. The bloodbath in Chinese equities didn’t help. We will be talking a lot about inflation this week, as the latest CPI data is due Fridy. Last week, the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell finally said that inflation is ‘not transitory’, and Fed action is needed to tame the pressure.

US indices recorded a strong rebound yesterday on expectation that omicron is more transmissible but less deadly, but the volatility remains high. That’s a sign that the stress in the market is not over just yet, because the root cause of the latest market selloff is not only omicron, but also the fear of seeing the markets left with less Federal Reserve (Fed) support due to Fed’s willingness to address the high inflation issue rather than providing support to the labour market recovery. The major event of the day is the US jobs data, but is the data still important? Elsewhere, Apple falls on news that the iPhone13 demand is weaker-than-expected. Grab’s first day in Nasdaq was a flop and Chinese tech stocks will certainly have a bad day in the US as well, as there is news that they could be delisted from stock exchanges.

The strong rebound we saw in US equity futures ended up giving way to a decent sell-off on Wednesday trading session; the S&P500 recorded its worst back-to-back sell-off since October 2020 and it may not be over. The US equity futures are again in the positive at the time of writing, but the gains are hardly interpreted as a recovery; they are rather the result of a rising volatility. The risk sentiment is sour. Now one place which could give hope for a slowdown in inflation, and a slower market selloff is oil, as the prices are under the pressure of a couple of factors. OPEC meets today; the expectations have been as volatile as the market action in oil. The latest news suggest that OPEC is increasingly inclined to scrap its plan to raise output for January. With the Fed pulling away support, we see the shining stars of the cheap-liquidity market falling from grace. AMC entertainment and GameStop tanked, while chipmakers and electric car makers took a heavy hit. Traditional safe haven gold is doing quite poorly nowadays, while Bitcoin is stable near the $56K mark, but the risks are tilted to the downside on the global loss of risk appetite. So, I am thinking, but just thinking whether the US dollar will again be the place to park until the dust settles.

Inflation is ‘not transitory’ said the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell at his testimony before the Senate yesterday, and the stock markets took the ‘no transitory’ phrase as a slap in the face. Most equities dived yesterday, yet the US equity futures rebounded as fast as they dived in the overnight trading session. Nasdaq futures are up by 1.30% at the time of recording. But be careful, this is probably not a proper recovery, it is simply the volatility rising! And what about omicron? Well, Jerome Powell didn’t seem too concerned about omicron, or the near-term impact of the virus on the economy. The problem is, Jerome Powell may not be concerned with the new omicron strain, but investors are, and watching the Fed support fade away is certainly not the best news and the news doesn’t come at the ideal time. And Bitcoin in all this? The inflation hedging properties of Bitcoin are not granted, really, and the fact that the Fed would pull away the cheap liquidity could actually hit the appetite in cryptocurrencies. This is what Mike Novogratz, who is a billionaire crypto investor said following Jerome Powell’s comments yesterday. And, Christine? Well, inflation in the Eurozone jumped from 4.1% to 4.9% in November, versus the expectation of 4.5% by analysts. That’s a big, big number for the eurozone. It doesn’t look transitory, and it seems to be accelerating as well. Therefore, I am increasingly convinced that we will soon see Christine Lagarde raising the white flag soon and announcing that, finally, inflation is not all that transitory.

Omicron comes as an early Xmas present to the central bankers, the early Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike expectations evaporate and equities gain. Yet, the appetite is certainly brittle. Jerome Powell will start his two-day testimony today and he will likely sound dovish, as he already warned about the downside risks that omicron brings on the table. Among biggest gainers of the omicron news are metaverse stocks, and among biggest losers are energy stocks, especially now that the US-Iran nuclear talks give encouraging signs of an eventual deal between the two countries.

Omicron wreaked havoc in the markets on Friday, sending European indices near 5% lower into Friday’s close. The selloff in the US was a bit less severe, but this is obviously not the performance we were expecting on Black Friday. And weekend news were mixed. Of course, the governments are quite experienced by now, so none was keen to wait and see we what would happen next. The reaction came fast, and included the well-known travel restriction measures, halting flights, restoring the entry measures, the tests, the isolation and so. The latter is bad news for the economic activity. But the good news is, the WHO said that the symptoms of the new omicron were rather ‘mild’ so far. Therefore, the financial implications could be less bad than what everyone first though. Market action on Monday is not as bad as Friday. European stocks and US equity futures are up, but the risk appetite is vulnerable to news.

We now have a new Covid variant that’s ‘very’ different from the ones we knew so far, a rising inflation, and a market bubble.

So inevitably, the market mood is souring, as investors don’t know whether the equities could survive to another economic hit with less support from the central banks, as central banks would have to deal with a dual fight that’s intensifying on both fronts: inflation is rising, and Covid news are getting worrisome. The problem is that they can’t use the same tools to fight back inflation and the economic slowdown. And the choice will be difficult.

The only encouraging news is the easing oil prices, which could tame the inflationary pressures and give more time to the central banks before pulling back support.

The latest news from Adidas is shaking the crypto headlines since Adidas Originals tweeted that they partner up with Coinbase to accept payments in cryptocurrencies. This is actually a proof of an increased adoption of the cryptocurrencies by traditional companies. If this is ‘probably nothing’, the SandBox partnership is something big, as the NFTs are about to become the next advertisement tool and the potential is huge because the digital ads market is huge! In traditional market news, the market mood is rather ok-ish after the FOMC minutes, although Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes showed that the US policymakers are now considering a faster QE taper and an earlier interest rate hike if inflation continues running higher. The US 2-year yield continues pushing higher on rising expectation of a tighter Fed policy, but appetite in US equities is not much hit. Nasdaq, which is supposed to be the most sensitive to higher rates closed yesterday’s session higher than the other major US indices, while gold slipped below the $1800 per ounce as the rising yields increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-interest-bearing gold, at a time when the risk rally promises bigger returns to investors who invest in, well, risky assets.

It’s Joe Biden against the oil bulls, and oil bulls seem to be gaining the upper hand as oil prices rebounded the day Joe Biden announced to release not 35 but 50 million barrels from the US strategic reserves. Such news doesn’t necessarily scare OPEC, but it probably frustrates them. The expectation is that they will hit back at their meeting next week, and their decision will have an impact longer than a couple of days or weeks. This is probably why we are seeing the oil bulls coming back to the market. Overall, the market sentiment is mixed. Nasdaq is down from an all-time high, as the US short term yields continue pushing higher. The bond traders have been cutting their projections on US inflation as they expect the new Fed Chair Jerome Powell to move aggressively to slow rising consumer prices. In other macro news, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rose its policy rate by another 25bp to 0.75% at today’s meeting as expected, and the lira further got hammered by prospects of lower interest rates. In Europe, yesterday’s PMI figures showed price pressures continued to rise for business, but the market continues pricing in a dovish ECB. At this point, I am wondering whether the dovishness in the euro is overdone, as Christine Lagarde will likely start facing some opposition to her ultra-dovish stance if inflation in the Eurozone doesn’t ease magically in the coming months. And magic is not something the Germans rely on.

El Salvador now plans to build a Bitcoin city which would be powered by volcano, but appetite in Bitcoin remains limited. In the traditional markets, the week kicks off on a mixed note in Asia, but the US futures are in the green at the start of what will be a short trading week in the US. Based on the historical data, the Thanksgiving week is a strong week for the US equities; there is a two-thirds chance that we will see the US stocks up on the day before and after Thanksgiving. Zoom to release earnings and expectations are strong despite bearish price action. On the policy front, Joe Biden’s other $2 trillion worth of spending proposal just passed the House on Friday. It is now headed to the Senate and will probably sit there for a while, as the US politicians will first need to find a solution to their debt ceiling problem, before adding another $2 trillion debt on top of it. The US short term yields continue pushing higher, and the upside potential is high. And on the Fed front, we are still waiting for Joe Biden to decide on who will be the next Fed Chair. But again, bringing the most dovish of the doves wouldn’t guarantee a longer period of zero rates in the US. Nor elsewhere, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected hike the interest rate this week, and the Bank of England (BoE) will likely hike its rate in December.

Apple is now stepping up efforts to bring the Apple car to life sooner than previously planned, the rally on Sono Motors and Rivian fades, perhaps because Thomas Veillet unveiled his plans to launch his own electric car brand powered by wind by the end of next year! (This is a joke!) The sentiment remains intact despite the prospects of an earlier and steeper rate hike in the US, and everyone is now waiting for the announcement of the next Federal Reserve (Fed) chair. But does it really matter at this point? Elsewhere, Alibaba is hammered after the announcement of its Q3 results, the selloff in the Turkish lira looks to be done after the central bank cut the interest rates by another 100 basis points, while Bitcoin is approaching an important technical support.

Sono Group shares soar at their first day in Nasdaq, Rivian tanks 15% in a much-needed downside correction for the new comer. US crude weakens below $80 per barrel on expectation that the US and China will tap into their strategic oil reserves to cool down the rising oil prices. On the other hand, Biden now wants the FTC to investigate the oil companies as he suspects them to play a role in high oil prices, which certainly cost the US President a good deal of popularity. Elsewhere, the US debt crisis is being brought forward by Janet Yellen, who warns that the US could default on its obligations next month. And finally, the Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) is expected to lower its interest rates by another 100 basis points but the markets are not happy with the direction the Turkish monetary policy is taking, as a tighter monetary policy is what the Turkey needs right now.

Rivian rallied another 15% yesterday, and Sono Motors is preparing to enter the arena. Is Sthe Sono Motors IPO the next bull run for tech investors? We will find out in a couple of hours. Elsewhere, yesterday was all about the US retail health, and the sales data looked good at the first sight. But in reality, it was mixed. The US retail sales grew 1.7% in October, up from 0.8% printed a month earlier and better than 1.2% penciled in by analysts, however the jump was mostly because things costed more due to an inflation hovering around a three-decade high. Still, the overall market sentiment was upbeat yesterday on strong US retail sales and an ok-ish meeting between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping. The two talked for 3.5 hours in a meeting with no concrete outcome. The major take was that the relationship didn’t get worse than what it already was. In the FX, the US dollar continues gaining field against the majors, while euro is retreating at a sustained speed. The EURUSD slipped below the 1.13 mark on the back of diverging European Central Bank (ECB) and Fed expectations, where the Fed hawks are slowly getting in charge of the market while Christine Lagarde does everything to keep the hawks away. She reckoned at a speech on Monday that inflation proved more sustained that they expected, but she still expects it to fade next year. Let’s all hope that inflation would magically fade!

Joe Biden finally signed the massive US infrastructure bill and the news had a negative impact on cryptocurrencies, as the new tax-reporting requirements for digital currencies are part of the $550 billion infrastructure bill that Biden has just signed. Therefore, a good part of yesterday’s selloff is due to a mounting stress about regulation and taxation of cryptocurrencies. In traditional markets, the risk sentiment is ok-ish, and the price action on index level is flattish, but inflation worries are everywhere, and there are rising rumours that higher interest rates wouldn’t even help taming inflation pressures! In the FX, the euro continues weakening against the US dollar and the pound, and the upcoming European inflation figures could hardly boost the ECB doves more than the BoE’s. Finally, Rivian is up by another 15%, but the present price action seems like a time bomb that could harm the bulls with no protection!

Elon Musk continues his one man show on Twitter, Rivian starts the week as the biggest Us carmaker after Tesla and the German solar electric carmaker Sono Motors will enter the arena this week. Overall, the trading week starts on a mixed sentiment. The equity markets quickly got over last week’s inflation shocker from the US. Nasdaq rebounded as fast as it dived, as investors didn’t find a much better alternative to the stocks for hedging against inflation, while gold coughed to life, as the yellow metal flirted with $1870 an ounce for the first time in five months. Activity on equity futures point at a flat start to the week. The better-than-expected industrial output from China, and rising hopes that the upcoming US-China meeting would lead to some positive news for international trade keeps investors cautiously optimistic this Monday. But inflation remains on the back of every investor’s mind, as the Europeans and the Brits will be revealing their latest inflation figures this week, and following the blow number from the US last week, traders are not walking into the European inflation data light-hearted.

The NFT space is heating up with news that Universal Music is launching a Bored Ape NFT music band, that Coinbase is preparing to unveil an NFT trading platform and gaming companies like Electronic Arts and Epic Games also consider integrating NFTs in their product offering. What’s the potential, why are NFTs gaining momentum in the corporate space, and what’s the potential? Finally, I asked you, guys & girls, why you think Bitcoin is a good inflation play, and you answered!

US inflation advanced to 6.2% in October. That’s the highest level since more than three decades. More worryingly, it looks less and less transitory, because the rise is mostly due to the rise in cars prices, but also the rise in food prices (where you can argue it’s volatile), the rise in energy prices (which could be temporary indeed, but the fact is that we have a growing energy crisis going on across the globe right now), and most worryingly, due to the rise in rents. The jump in US inflation, and the yields soured the mood in the equity markets. Nasdaq of course paid the highest price among the three major US indices. But overall, compared to the inflation shock, it’s not a dramatic decline. And activity in US equity futures was positive in Asia, Nasdaq futures are up 0.22% at time of writing, hinting that the moodiness in the market will likely be transitory, unlike inflation… Goldman advises to buy the USD 5-year 5-year breakevens on a bet that inflation would accelerate, and that the Fed would do nothing dramatic to tame the inflationary pressures, but people actually prefer rushing to Bitcoin, as a new-age inflation hedge. As such, Bitcoin hit a fresh record yesterday, before easing. I am not saying that Bitcoin is not a good inflation hedge, I am saying that we don’t have enough data in hand that proves that it is. So why are people rushing to Bitcoin? Despite a limited risk appetite, Rivian made a great debut in Nasdaq. The company sold 156 cars so far and is public since a day only, but it is already worth more than GM and Ford. Why?!

Tesla is down another 12%, Roblox soars 42% and Coinbase drops 13% in the after-hours trading.

US indices didn’t renew record yesterday, and investors are awaiting for the latest US inflation data. The Chinese inflation hit a 13-month high in October, and the producer prices topped 13%. And later today, the US inflation data will likely confirm a further overheating in American consumer prices last month, as well. A consensus of analyst estimates points that the consumer price index in the US may have advanced to 5.8% in October from 5.4% printed a month earlier. Yet, the rising inflation doesn’t seem to sour the market mood as much as it did a couple of months earlier, as investors are well conscious that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue turning a blind eye on the problem, regardless of who will take the helm in February. Therefore, we may not see a negative market reaction to the overheating in inflation. Still, Redditers are now looking for signs of a market rout through reverse repo operations, hoping that the GameStop frenzy would return thanks to a global equity selloff.

US indices continue flirting with all-time high levels following a surprise NFP read, the approval of Biden’s $550 billion spending bill and the discovery of an oral Covid treatment from Pfizer.

But inflation worries come to overshadow the Monday optimism in the run up to the most recent Chinese and US inflation data release due Wednesday, which should reveal a further rise in producer and consumer prices.

On the corporate end, the biggest news was of course Tesla, which tanked 5% yesterday, on speculation that Elon Musk would sell 10% of his Tesla stock following a positive answer to his Twitter poll, asking his followers whether he should sell stake to pay taxes. The biggest mover of the after-hours trading was Roblox, which saw its share price soar more than 30% after it announced its revenue doubled in the third quarter. People spent 11 billion hours on Roblox, helping the company double its revenue in the third quarter. Roblox is seen as a serious competition for Facebook’s Meta. And the metaverse race boosts appetite in chip makers. AMD rallied 10% yesterday on news that it won Meta as a chip customer, while Nvidia had recorded a similar jump last week, after Wells Fargo had revised its price target 30% higher to $320 a share. Now, Bank of Montreal lifts its price target by 50% to $375 a share. Finally, I have been asked to dive into the British stocks. I like energy, mining and pharma stocks, and they look relatively cheap with a British pound that would simply not bounce higher.

Elon Musk is shaking Twitter with his suggestion to sell 10% of his Tesla stock to pay taxes. Investors are ready for a decent dive in the share price this Monday, but the latter could be opportunity to strengthen the bullish positions. Else in the EV, Rivian IPO is one of the most expected events of the week, along with Chinese tech earnings, Coinbase and Disney Q3 results.

On the macro calendar, we will see how bad the inflation got in October, and whether it will do anything to the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike expectations after last week’s speech from Jerome Powell that inflation is transitory.

Crude oil bounces back above the $80pb and has a clean path toward the $100pb, while gold drills above the $1800 per oz, with certainly a limited bullish potential.

We had another record-breaking trading session for the S&P500 and Nasdaq on Thursday. Tesla & Nvidia hit fresh record. Oil on the other hand traded lower even though OPEC said that the energy crisis is not their problem and refused to give in to the US and others’ pressure to increase oil supply. I discuss in detail why did oil prices traded south, and could the latest move trigger a deeper sell-off. It's NFP day! The US will reveal how many new nonfarm jobs it added during October: what to watch in the upcoming figures? And finally, tune in to keep up with the latest craziness in the NFT space – the Bored Apes phenomenon - and why it is important!

Major US indices rallied to fresh record yet, again, because the tapering announcement from the Federal Reserve (Fed) yesterday was rather dovish. Ethereum advanced to a fresh record as well, and Goldman Sachs said it could surge to $8000 if it continues tracking inflation. Overall, the risk is on and people continue hunting for the next big daily bargain, and new IPOs are excellent candidates for a try. Yesterday, the sustainable, wool shoes maker Allbirds went public, and it had a good first day, the stock price more than doubled, and closed the session up by 93%. Not bad at all. The next most-watched IPO is next week’s Rivian, which is a Ford and Amazon-backed electric car maker. Today, we have two important events on today’s macro calendar. One is the Bank of England (BoE) meeting, and the other is the OPEC decision. OPEC is under a growing pressure from the US, Japan and others to boost supply to help easing the global energy crisis. And the BoE is officially expected to maintain its policy unchanged at today’s MPC meeting, but the activity on the MPC SONIA futures a different story!

The major US indices renewed record before the much-expected Federal Reserve (Fed) decision. And if there is no sign of stress across the risk markets, it’s mostly because we all think we know what will come out from today’s meeting: a gradual start of the tapering of the bond purchases program. The QE taper announcement will likely be seamless, what may be less seamless is the rate discussion, as there is a rising pressure on the Fed to start thinking about ‘thinking about’ raising rates. Also due today, the US ADP report will give the first hint on how well the US jobs market did last month. The expectation is that the US economy added 400’000 new private jobs in October versus some 568’000 printed a month earlier. On the individual news, Tesla is down 3% from sky highs on the confusion regarding the latest Hertz deal, while Netflix steps into the online gaming arena with the introduction of five mobile games playable on Android devices.

Nothing gets in the way of the equity bulls: not chip shortages, nor labour shortages, or the energy crisis, or the pandemic, not even the fact that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is just about to announce scaling back its massive bond purchases program in order to contain the rising inflation. The bulls continue pushing the equity rally to fresh records. The S&P500 and Nasdaq both renewed record on Monday’s session, whereas the major headline on Bloomberg this morning was that ‘the supply chain crisis risks taking the global economy down with it’. Still, investors prefer seeing the glass half full: we have a strong earnings season, 80% of the S&P500 companies that announced earnings so far, beat expectations. Also, people are craving for positive news and wild moves. If there are none, they make them up. The latest GameStop rally was backed by no good news at all. Same for Tesla, which soared 8.5% to close above $1200 a share! Fed meets The Federal Reserve (Fed) starts its two-day meeting. There is no doubt that the Fed will announce its plans to start tapering the bond purchases from tomorrow. That’s a well digested and a broadly priced in decision, but the market will be looking for any signs of a rate hike from the Fed, to ease the inflationary pressures.

The week starts on quite a mixed sentiment in Asia. Japanese stocks rebound as reaction to the LDP victory in keeping an outright majority in lower house. The Nikkei rallied 2.5%, while Chinese equities remained under pressure as the official manufacturing PMI revealed a read below the 50 mark for the second month, pointing at an unpleasant slowdown in activity due to power shortages and rising commodity prices. Elsewhere, the US equities had quite a flattish session on Friday, but all three major indices posted gains to the weekly closing bell. Nasdaq even posted a fresh record despite the disappointment on Apple and Amazon earnings, which saw their stock prices gap significantly lower at the open, but then recover to the close. Exxon and Chevron had a strong quarter as well. Meanwhile, world leaders meet in Glasgow to boost decarbonization – and I take the opportunity to dive into Swissquote’s Decarbonisation theme play. Week Ahead: earnings continue flowing in this week, but a major part of the game is already played. 80% of the S&P500 companies that reported earnings so far, beat expectations. Now the focus could shift to the macroeconomic calendar. We have important meetings this week: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), Federal Reserve (Fed), Bank of England (BoE) and OPEC meet. - Will OPEC increase output? - Fed to start taper but focus on the timing of the first rate hike - BoE could act as soon as this week!

Major US indices had a record-breaking session on Thursday, but disappointment on Apple and Amazon results will likely weigh on the market sentiment before the weekly closing bell. Nasdaq which led gains and traded at a fresh record will certainly feel the pinch of the softer-than-expected results from Apple and Amazon. And there is little to improve the mood, as Joe Biden is still struggling to pass his mega spending bill, the Covid delta-plus cases are surging and the US growth fell short of expectations in the latest read. Facebook changed its name to Meta. And Tthe last thing on this week’s corporate calendar is the earnings from the oil giants Exxon and Chevron. Both companies are expected to report strong quarterly earnings thanks to the rally in oil prices. But strong expectations don’t mean a strong beat! Shell for example missed on revenue estimates yesterday and the share price dived 3.50% in London. US crude rebounded past the $83 yesterday, as the price plunge has been seen as an opportunity to buy the dip in the actual environment of energy crisis, rising global demand and still a tight supply. A word on the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting: The message from Lagarde was dovish yesterday, but the price action on euro was hawkish. The EURUSD flirted with the 1.17 mark and has potential to price in more hawkishness no matter what Lagarde says. Finally, Bitcoin plunged to $56K, and could see some more downside pressure during the weekend.

Market sentiment is mixed. In one hand, the strong earnings are encouraging, on the other hand, Joe Biden is having hard time passing his spending bill and the Covid’s delta-plus cases are rising.

There has been a collective and an aggressive repricing of the central bank expectations in the bond markets yesterday. Bond traders sold shorter term bonds and bought longer term ones, betting on a more hawkish policy stance from central banks, including the European Central Bank (ECB).

The ECB will announce its latest verdict today, but the expectations remain still dovish.

On earnings front, solar firm Enphase had a record quarter, McDonald’s did fine, Ford pleased but GM disappointed.

Today, Apple and Amazon are due to announce earnings.

Ethereum is up before today’s network upgrade which should make its network faster and more energy-efficient, and may even lead to lower fees for users. The so-called Altair upgrade is another step in helping Ethereum transition away from the energy-hungry proof-of-work to energy-light proof-of-stake protocol when Ethereum 2.0 will be up and running next year.

Elsewhere, the earnings from US Big Tech continue flowing in and keep investors in a sweet mood. Google, Twitter and Microsoft announced mostly encouraging results, though the global shortages and Apple’s changes on privacy rules, which impact the ads business, threw some shadow on the optimism.

Elsewhere, the inflation fears and rising tensions between the US and China kept appetite contained in Asia, Chinese tech stocks remained on the crossfire, yet again.

Inflation in Australia eased, Bank of Canada is expected to maintain its policy unchanged at today’s meeting and the US durable goods orders may have fallen in September. But there is little to get the Federal Reserve (Fed) change its mind on the upcoming QE taper.

US crude is just a touch below the $85pb.

The week kicks off on mixed sentiment, technology shares that have high exposure to advertisement revenues came under pressure on Friday, after Snap said Apple’s privacy changes prevented them from targeting and measuring ads.

The earnings deluge will keep investors busy this week. Apple, Facebook, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Twitter, Visa, MasterCard, Robinhood Markets, General Motors, McDonald’s, Starbucks, Exxon Mobil and Chevron are due to announce Q3 earnings. In the FX markets, the USD-TRY hit a new record on weekend news that ambassadors from ten nations, including France, Germany and the US, are no longer welcome in Turkey. On the economic calendar, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank will announce their latest verdict this week, but the rising inflation should keep the hawks relatively alert. In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin consolidates above the $60K mark, but the arrival of Bitcoin ETFs announce a fees war between the ETF providers, and that could heat up the market in the coming weeks.

Donald Trump is back to fight to US Big Tech companies with his media group aiming to throw a new social media platform, TV and streaming services. Trump’s TMTG would join the market through a SPAC merger. Those who love the adrenaline of speculation are simply going crazy about the news and about DWAC, which is involved in the deal and which saw its shares soar more than 350% after the announcement.

Elsewhere, WeWork rallied 13% after hitting the market through a SPAC deal as well, Netflix rallied 4.50% to a fresh record and Tesla shares hit $900 despite a slight miss on its Q3 revenues. Snap however tanked 27% in the after hours trading as it announced somehow disquieting results.

Bitcoin saw some profit taking which could have to do, or not with the news that a technical bug sent the price of a coin to $8000 on Binance. We are heading into a perhaps slow weekend in Bitcoin after a shaky week with the arrival of the US first Bitcoin ETF to the market.

Bitcoin hits a new all-time-high as money continues flowing into the US’s first Bitcoin ETF, ProShares Strategy ETF.

The Dow Jones industrial index hit a fresh intra-day record as well, while the S&P500 is just a couple of points from refreshing record. The market sentiment is positive on the back of strong third quarter earnings.

Tesla announced another record quarter though the record revenue came just below Wall Street expectations which sent the share price 1% lower in the after-hours trading. Netflix, on the other hand, lost 2% yesterday, as better-than-expected earnings didn’t boost investor appetite at the current prices.

Elsewhere, PayPal offered to buy Pinterest, and Softbank-backed WeWork will go public through a SPAC today.

ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF started trading yesterday and has been the second most heavily traded fund on record. The massive inflows gave a boost to Bitcoin as well which traded near its all-time-high levels.

Elsewhere, Netflix posted better-than-expected results as the Squid Game boosted the quarterly subscriptions and the forecast for the next quarter. But beating expectations didn’t prevent Netflix shares falling into the negative in the after-hours trading.

Tesla is due to announce earnings today. Analysts expect a strong quarter thanks to soaring vehicle deliveries despite a challenging economic environment. Let’s see if Tesla results would take the share price to a fresh record or trigger a profit taking at the current levels.

Apple announced yesterday that it will get rid of the Intel chips and use its faster home-made Mac processors instead. News pleased investors, Apple gained 1.40%. Nasdaq led gains on prospects of another strong earnings season for the US Big Tech companies. Netflix is due to release earnings today after the market close, but beware, the expectations of a strong beat could limit the upside potential in Netflix shares at the current ATH levels. Elsewhere, the Bank of England (BoE) is now expected to proceed with the first rate hike as soon as next month, while the European Central Bank (ECB) prefers taking the opposite direction and considers boosting the EU recovery fund. The Federal Reserve (Fed) on the other hand is seen hiking rates before 2023. Bitcoin remains set to break a new record, while appetite in gold remains limited.

Bitcoin Netflix Tesla IBM earnings China GDP GBP EUR inflation SPX Dow Nasdaq markets investing trading equities cryptocurrencies FX bonds Swissquote MarketTalk market analysis market commentary

Major us indices had a good day yesterday, as all three of them rallied between 1.50 and 1.75% on the back of strong earnings from the big US banks. The rise in trading that banks inherited from the pandemic continued boosting their revenues

In the tech IPOs space, investors offered a warm welcome to GitLab in Nasdaq yesterday. The company had priced its stock at $77 on Wednesday, and the stock price closed above the $100 mark at the end of the first day, giving the company a near $15 billion valuation. Elsewhere, the International Energy Agency said that ‘an acute shortage in natural gas, LNG and coal supplies stemming from the gathering global economic recovery has sparked a precipitous run-up in prices for energy supplies and is triggering a massive switch to oil products’, adding that the latter could raise the daily consumption by 500’000 barrels per day over the next 6 months. And finally, the fact that the US regulators could soon give a greenlight for Bitcoin ETFs is boosting optimism. The weekend looks promising for Bitcoin, which is now testing the $60K mark, and will certainly claim a fresh all-time high very soon. And Bitcoin appetite is about to boost interest in altcoins as well!

US inflation rose in September, but not enough to give cold feet to investors. Nasdaq led gains, as JP Morgan and Delta Airlines announced strong earnings, but saw their share prices dip. the latest FOMC minutes, also released yesterday, showed that the Fed members are still worried about inflation, they think that the higher prices will stick around for longer than they first thought, but then, the inflationary pressures will be transitory, still!

But the most heated discussion of the earnings seasons will continue being the supply chain problems and the bottlenecks! The phrase ‘supply chain’ has apparently be mentioned 3000 times on investor calls this year, and some analysts expect that shortages on everything could hit the holiday season. That’s bad news, and that should also impact the company earnings, but UBS is way more optimistic than that!

Finally, Blue Origin got William Shatner to space and back on Earth and Amazon was seen shopping for used Boeing and Airbus to compete with logistics giants like UPS and FedEx.

Major US indices remained slightly offered yesterday, as the IMF cut its global growth estimate from 6% to 5.9% in 2021, while leaving the expectation of a 4.9% growth for 2022. The US growth forecast has been lowered from 7% to 6%, mainly due to supply chain constraints. The supply chain constraints seem to be getting worse at some places, but better in others. Apple faces important decrease in iPhone production and could cut the production target for its iPhone13 significantly in the last quarter. It is also said that Apple, which came out of the Chinese crackdown measures quite unharmed so far, could now see the pressure increased. Elsewhere, the supply chain constraints, and the rising oil prices continue fueling the worries of a longer and stickier inflation in the US and elsewhere. Due today, the US CPI data will reveal how bad the 13% rally in US crude prices impacted the consumer price inflation in September. Also due today, the latest FOMC minutes will likely reiterate the Fed’s willingness to start tapering the bond purchases soon and could give a further insight regarding the need and the possibility of seeing the rate normalization happen before 2023. We lately started seeing an acceleration in the US 10-year yield, which is now above the 1.60%, and a strong inflation figure could further boost the yields and weigh on equity appetite.

Oil continues pushing higher and boosts Solar energy stocks, and inflation worries along with it. The overall risk appetite is limited due to the rising inflation expectations and China expanding its crackdown to banks.

The risk appetite is limited as investors are holding their breath into Wednesday’s German and US inflation reports. Inflation in Germany is seen at 4.1%, and inflation in the US is seen at 5.3%. A strong inflation read could fuel expectations of a tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve (Fed) as the Bank of England (BoE) is already seen hiking rates before the end of this year! So I discuss how would the stock markets react to the hawkish shift in central bank expectations?

Released last Friday, the US jobs data wasn’t brilliant in September. The US economy added less than 194’000 new nonfarm jobs compared with the 500’000 expected by the analyst. The jobless rate fell to 4.8% from 5.2% printed a month earlier, but that was mostly because people left the workforce, rather than finding a job. And the worst of all is that the bad data couldn’t be perceived as ‘good for the market’, as even a second consecutive month big miss on US jobs figures, which hinted at a slowing recovery in the US labour market, wouldn’t get the Fed to change its mind on tapering its bond purchases; the positive pressure on inflation is simply too strong. With slowing recovery in US labour market and strong inflationary pressures, the Fed is caught between the devil and the deep blue see. But hey, some Fed doves are still reluctant to clear the skies as the soft jobs figures bring in the idea of a dovish taper from the Fed. Anyway, we will have a look into the Fed’s latest meeting minutes on Wednesday, which should provide some clarity on what will hit the fan in a couple of weeks. US markets are closed today, but from tomorrow we will start watching the third quarter earnings creep in with the US big banks due to release their results first.

Major US indices continued their rebound yesterday as US politicians found a midway to raise the debt ceiling to fund the government until the beginning of December. It’s only half-good news, as the deal only kicks the can down the road, without solving the problem. The headache will return in a couple of months, but the latest news help soothing investor nerves, for now. All eyes are on today’s US jobs data. Released on Wednesday, the US ADP report revealed that the US economy added 568’000 new private jobs versus 430’000 pencilled in by analysts, giving investors hope that we may see a strong NFP figure today, as well. The consensus of analyst expectations on Bloomberg points that the US economy may have added 500’000 new nonfarm jobs in September. But there is no meaningful correlation between the monthly ADP and NFP figures, and we can’t rule out the possibility of seeing a negative surprise at today’s release. Elsewhere, the decline in US crude following the Russian promise to increase gas supply to Europe boosted dip-buying. The price of a barrel rebounded as quickly as it fell, and the persistent rise in oil prices can only continue boosting inflation fears and the central bank hawks, hence limit the upside potential in case of a further recovery in stock markets. The US 10-year yield approaches 1.60%, a level which could trigger a fresh wave of convexity selling, with Americans rushing to the exit on their bond positions to compensate for the lost interest in refinancing their old mortgages as a result of higher yields. In cryptocurrencies, the appetite remains strong but many start wondering whether Tether holdings are really backed by US dollar. Here is the Blomberg article: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-10-07/crypto-mystery-where-s-the-69-billion-backing-the-stablecoin-tether

Natural gas prices tanked more than 10% after Russia offered to increase gas supply for the winter months, but the offer doesn’t come for free: Russia wants permission on the controversial Nord Stream 2.

US crude is down along with lower nat gas prices, but gold remains unreactive to inflation fears.

In equities, US indices rebounded on strong ADP report and progress on US debt ceiling talk. No one expects the US to default in a week, investors rather have their eyes set on Friday’s NFP figures.

Elsewhere, Bitcoin surges past the $55K mark and we start hearing ‘buy the dip’ echoing across the markets; is it time to buy the dip?

US equities rebounded on Tuesday amid heated discussions about the impact of Facebook on public health and the worst oil spill in California. Major US indices traded in the green, as Nasdaq led gains. Both Nasdaq and the S&P500 rebounded back to their 100-DMA levels, but the US 10-year yield advanced to 1.57%, warning that the selling pressure on equities may not be over just yet. Due today, the US ADP report will give the first hint on how well the US labour market did in September. Any weakness in the jobs figure could dampen the market mood again, as soft economic data could no longer revive the central bank doves, as the spike in energy prices continue fueling expectations of higher inflation for longer. The barrel of US crude flirted with the $80 per barrel on Tuesday, backed by news of the worst oil spill in California in almost three decades. But the upside remained limited approaching the $80pb level, as the latest API data showed that the US oil inventories increased by a million barrels last week, versus 300’000 decline penciled in by analysts. The more official EIA data, due today, will clarify the latest move in US crude inventories. Bitcoin advanced past $50K yesterday as the SEC said the US won’t ban digital coins, and the Bank of America decided to cover the cryptocurrencies as a part of their research, saying the crypto assets are now ‘too large to ignore’. But looking at the global energy crunch and the fight for climate, the huge energy consumption of Bitcoin could, at some point, become a burden for Bitcoin and get investors looking for greener versions of Bitcoin.

Facebook plunged 5% on a broad outage and Nasdaq closed Monday’s session more than 2% lower on the back of the global energy crunch, the rising inflation fears and the prospects of tighter monetary policies worldwide.

Other FAANG stocks fell, though less than Facebook, meanwhile Netflix hit a fresh record before closing the session with losses.

Another Chinese property company failed to repay its maturing bonds, and US-China trade tensions came back to the headlines on US decision to maintain tariffs on its Chinese imports.

Oil stocks extended gains as OPEC surprisingly decides to keep output plans unchanged- The decision sent oil prices to highest levels since 2014.

And Justin Bieber entered the cannabis market, but the news gave little op to investors. Tilray lost 3.68% ahead of earnings due Oct 7.

US equity futures posted a strong rebound on Friday, which particularly sent financials and energy stocks higher. Exxon Mobil gained another 3.60% on Friday, surging near 15% over the past two weeks, as oil consolidated gains above the $75 per barrel. But the worries of supply chain continue giving cold chills. The worsening global supply chain disruption, combined with rising inflation - which looks much less transitory than what the policymakers first thought, and which results in a narrowing capacity to respond to a slowing economic growth - could continue weighing on investor sentiment this week. OPEC meets today and could announce an increase in monthly production goals, given the faster-than-expected growth in demand sent oil prices significantly higher over the weeks. But the upside in oil should remains limited, as this fast rise in energy crisis can only stall the economic recovery and lead to a pullback in global demand. Due tomorrow, the European producer prices are expected to post an increase past the 13% in August, but we can see a number more than that. And, the economic data better be good to keep investor sentiment nice and sweet, as whatever we see on the data front, if inflation keeps rising, the central banks will need to remove support. And this brings me to the US jobs data due in the next couple of sessions.

The US government won’t be shut today, as Joe Biden signed a funding bill that should keep the US government agencies running until December 3rd. So, the short-term solution to the US debt ceiling issue should give a certain relief to US equity markets in the short-run, after the S&P500 finally couldn’t hold on for longer and gave in the 100-dma resistance to close the session a touch above the 4300 mark. But the picture is not optimistic. US futures are in the red as Asian equity markets kicked off the new month on quite a negative note. We saw Japan’s Nikkei index plunge more than 2.5% overnight, as Australian ASX200 slid close to 2% on rising inflation fears, which would keep the central banks’ hands tied faced with a slower economic recovery due to the skyrocketing energy and commodity prices. In summary, the high inflation is about to become a worst headache than the pandemic itself, as at least for the pandemic, central banks had tools to use. With this high inflation, they have nothing to do. And the traditional hedge for inflation and a market rout gold has not shouted present in September decline in equity markets, nor did Bitcoin.

Market sentiment gets a bit better, but all eyes are on US politicians who should find a common ground by tonight to avoid a US government shutdown. The chances are that Republicans would agree on a short-term resolution to avoid a shutdown even there is no agreement on the debt ceiling itself.

A US government shutdown sounds terrible, but it would not be a big deal for the market except from generating some short-term volatility, as the US experienced 14 government shutdowns since 1980 which lasted in average 7 days, and the worst having lasted up to 34 days, in December 2018. Anyway, if we have any reconciliation on the debt ceiling, we shall see an immediate relief on the equities front. Technology stocks remain under pressure, but most investors are now chasing the good time to buy the dip and carry the tech rally higher. On the currencies front, we see a stronger US dollar that is pressuring the EURUSD and Cable to the downside, as oil rally slows above the $75pb.

The market is painted in flashy red on the back of a combination of several factors ranging from the risk of a US government shutdown if the US policymakers can’t agree to raise the debt ceiling before Thursday night, the energy crunch that puts pressure on energy prices, which in return puts pressure on the inflation expectations. And combined with the US approaching its debt ceiling deadline without having found an agreement to raise the ceiling puts a strong positive pressure on the US yields. But an eventual deal on the US debt ceiling could provide an immediate relief to the stock markets. UBS joins Credit Suisse in its call for the S&P500 which they think should hit 5000 in 2022. Energy stocks will likely lead gains, but other sectors should do fine as well. On the individual level, Amazon slips below the 200-dma, Tesla gives back a part of latest gains, meanwhile Ford and Korean SK Innovation announce to invest more than $11 billion to build a new plant to produce the fully electric version of Ford’s F-150 truck.

In this special edition of Market Talk, I answer questions from the audience about my journey in finance, my experiences and a couple stories on the trading floor. I also give my call on cryptos and equities to the end of the year, and give a quick update on Tesla, GM and Lordstown amid Goldman Sach’s rating changes.

The Evergrande debt crisis, the Chinese energy crackdown on missed targets and the ban on cryptocurrencies have been shaking the markets, along with Federal Reserve’s (Fed) more hawkish policy stance last week, and not only on its QE taper front but also regarding the interest rates. Natural gas futures rebound fast from last week’s dip and should continue rising as the winter approaches. US crude traded it above the $75 per barrel in Asia for the first time since July. Despite discouraging news on the wire, US and European futures traded mostly in the positive hinting at some more consolidation in US equities at the start of the week. In Germany, SPD party is ahead of outgoing Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats. An SPD-led coalition in Germany is quite bearish for the DAX, but there is no particular sign off stress on DAX which recovers last week’s losses this Monday. Finally, the impact of the latest Chinese news on Bitcoin’s price was significant but not dramatic as the $40K support held well during the kneejerk drop and during the weekend.

Market sentiment is mixed, as investors don’t know what to do with the latest economic data and their Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations these days. Released yesterday, the US retail sales data surprised with an unexpected 0.7% rise in August versus a 0.8% decline penciled in. Stronger than expected data seemed to have fueled Fed tapering expectations rather than the bulls’ appetite. Strong sales boosted US retailers’ stock prices. Ford gained, as well, on high demand for its F-150 truck, while Palantir jumped 6% on successfully teaming up with Wejo. AMC Entertainment couldn’t convince investors that accepting cryptocurrencies would add value to its business in the future. Cryptocurrencies remain on track for further gains this weekend, as Bitcoin should be further backed by a recent golden cross formation.

Economic data is mixed, but the market mood is better. S&P500 rebounds from its 50-dma, as Chinese stocks remain under a heavy selling pressure on latest news that the casino stocks will be subject to stricter regulations in Macau. Nio is one Chinese stock that resists the broad selloff on Chinese stocks, as Tesla is poised to extend gains on improving risk appetite. However, the overall mood in other electric carmakers is not brilliant. Oil hits $73pb on decent decline in weekly US crude inventories, and energy stocks rally. Gold, on the other hand, remains offered near the $1800 per oz.

Apple reveals the new products, but shares continue falling as the overall market mood is getting uglier on the back of high inflation, though the August figure showed steadying in August at the market consensus. US crude continues pushing higher on 5-million-barrel decline revealed by the API data on US crude inventories last week. Elsewhere, Roger Federer’s On Running is going public today and the company could reach a valuation as high as $7.3 billion. Should you rush in?

Market mood is stable before the US inflation data, but a strong read could further hammer the risk appetite today. US crude breaks above the two-month downtrending channel top as aluminum futures rise in an exponential trend, hinting that the inflation may not be ready to ease just yet. On individual company front, Intel gained more than 2% on news that the company will lower its price to fight back competition. Intel’s latest collaboration with Nio to launch robotaxis in Europe may also give a boost to the share price, but Intel is not the only one rushing to the self-driving taxi market. Finally, Litecoin spikes on fake news that Walmart would accept LTC payments while other cryptocurrency prices consolidate.

Week starts on a negative mood as Friday’s producer prices in the US revealed a faster than expected rise in producer prices ahead of US and UK CPI due Tuesday and Wednesday. VIX jumped, gold was mostly unreactive. Apple fell 3.30% on a court order to accept alternative payment methods on App store as a result of a yearlong fight against Epic Games. Online game stocks gained. Alibaba shares tanked in Honk Kong as government now wants Ant’s loan business separated from Alipay.

The European Central Bank (ECB) announced to start slowing down PEPP purchases, as President Christine Lagarde insisted that this is not tapering. The US producer price data, due today, is expected to reveal a further acceleration in factory-gate prices, which could fuel the Federal Reserve (Fed) tapering expectations and weigh on the market mood as the covid news get uglier by the day. And China is now selling strategic oil reserves to lower energy prices to temper inflation. Elsewhere, the Chinese tech stocks could be recovering some of losses recorded on the latest news that the government would pause online game approvals. And finally, Cardano will be launching start contracts on September 12.

Major US indices were offered on Wednesday, as Nasdaq recorded its biggest drop in two weeks. But Nasdaq is consolidating above its one-year positive trend top, as FAANG stocks give no sign of stress for now. Activity in European and US futures hint that we may not see the mood improving before today’s ECB verdict and Friday’s US producer price data. The major risk is that there are many leveraged positions in the market right now, and even a fall as small as 2% could trigger forced liquidations and amplify a downside correction. Now it’s Europe’s turn to find out more about what’s cooking in the European Central Bank’s (ECB) kitchen. The European Central Bank is expected to maintain its rates unchanged at today’s meeting, and at many more meetings to come, but they are expected to start talking about tapering their bond purchases. The DAX shed some 1.50% yesterday and the CAC40 was down by 0.85% ahead of today’s ECB meeting as some investors are now fearing the vindictive return from the ECB hawks!

Bitcoin dived 18% on bumpy El Salvador adoption, but critical technical levels remains intact for the continuation of the positive trend building since July. Ethereum and Cardano declined, but Solana resisted better to the selloff. Elsewhere, Coinbase lost 4% as SEC warned the company that they should not launch a product offering interest on cryptocurrency holdings. Elsewhere, the tech stocks did better as the stock prices continued being led by the prospects of low post-pandemic rates rather than a strong reflation environment.

Friday’s US jobs data was a big miss, with only 235K new nonfarm jobs added in the month of August versus more than 700K penciled in by analysts. But bad news was mostly interpreted as good by the global equity markets, as the soft data revived the expectations of a delay in Federal Reserve (Fed) QE tapering. As such, Asian and European stock markets kicked off the week on a positive note.

Oil is under a decent selling pressure on news that the Saudis cut their October selling price to Asians by at least a per barrel on all grades. And ‘buy $30 Bitcoin’ is the major topic on crypto discussions in social media. Talks of a collective pump pushed the price of a Bitcoin to almost $53K, the highest level since May. But so far, what we have seen in terms of price action is far from a successful collective move, as the one we saw in GameStop shares. What to expect?

Friday’s US jobs data was mixed. The big miss on NFP data fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) should delay the QE taper, but the rising wages revived inflation worries and the idea that the Fed taper could not be delayed by too much, either. Nasdaq eked out small gains, commodities gained. This week, the Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce their latest monetary policy decision. There are increadingly rising hawkish expectations on the ECB front, which pressures the EURUSD higher. On the corporate agenda, GameStop and FuelCell earnings are due this week.

Another day another record. The S&P500 hit a fresh high as the cyclical stocks and industrials led yesterday’s gains, while technology stocks paused and took a breath. We saw some profit taking in Google, Amazon and Facebook, but Apple and Netflix eked out gains, and Netflix even hit a fresh record as it traded close to $600 per share for the first time. All eyes are on the US jobs data today, with the strength of the data could tint the Fed expectations and trigger a certain price move across equities, especially given that we expect to see low volumes at a time when New York is dealing with severe floods. Also, Monday is closed for the US Labor Day. Therefore, thin trading volumes could lead to sharp price moves across equities if there is any positive or negative surprise on the data front. In commodities, US crude shortly stepped above the $70pb on Hurricane Ida-led supply shortage and gold steadies a touch above the $1800 per oz, with little upside potential. In cryptocurrencies, Cardano hits record ahead of Alonzo update, and look promising for cementing its top three ranking after Bitcoin and Ethereum.

US indices advance on mixed economic data, as US crude retreated on news that OPEC will continue winding down its production cut program.

US big tech continue renewing record with Facebook, Apple and Google hitting new highs despite the upcoming Fed tapering.

In Europe, the tapering voices are getting louder as the ECB hawks become vocal about considering the end of the ECB tapering as well, on the back of strong economic data and rising inflation.

How hard would the double Fed-ECB tapering hit the markets?

Big news of the day is the S&P500 and Nasdaq didn’t renew record yesterday. But the US equities still recorded their seventh straight monthly advance in August, which is the strongest winning streak since January 2018, and the S&P500 beat its 53rd record at Monday’s close: not bad at all given that we don’t only have good news on the wire.

A correction? Not just yet. For now, the overall market holds on to its gains and no one dares saying ‘the king is naked’.

Today, the US ADP data and Fed’s Bostic’s speech will be closely monitored. But, the bulls will probably read what they want to read and hear what they want to hear in data. And even if it’s not the case, they will probably rapidly get over any unpleasant news to carry the rally higher, because a misstep could have dramatic consequences.

In commodities, US crude remains a touch below $70pb into the OPEC meeting. OPEC is expected to stick to the production revival plan, but Saudis already warned that OPEC could well pause or reverse their unwinding of output curbs in the coming year. So what’s next for oil?

Nasdaq hit fresh record on Monday, as Apple, Google, Facebook traded at all-time highs at the wake of Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, where Powell said tapering is coming and the markets priced the fact that we have no details on the start date and on the pace of winding down the bond purchases.

Tesla jumped 2.70% despite rival Rivian planning to go public soon. Chinese stocks remain under pressure on latest restrictive measures announced by the government on online gaming.

In commodities, Hurricane Ida is pressuring the natural gas and oil futures to the upside, causing severe damage in the Gulf Coast’s energy production. But as it has been the case in the prior storms, the impact of the hurricane on the energy prices will certainly remain short-lived. Therefore, what OPEC will say at this week’s meeting matters much more for the overall picture.

The S&P500 and Nasdaq renew record after Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. Gold gained, and oil advanced. Attention now shifts to the Chinese PMI, Eurozone inflation and US jobs data. Elsewhere, OPEC is expected to stick to its production revival plan at this week’s meeting, which could slow down the oil rally after a strong week of gains. On the corporate calendar, Zoom Video Communications is due to release earnings on Monday and will be comparing its results to the first full pandemic quarter. The results may be less impressive, but a Morgan Stanley analyst upgrades his view on the share price.

The S&P500 and Nasdaq retreat from the all-time highs on Kabul airport blast and ahead of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. On the chip shortage news, the WSJ reported that TSM could raise its chip prices from 10 to 20%. What would b the implications for the economy and for chipmaker stocks? Elsewhere, gold tests $1800 per oz, while Bitcoin is sitting on its 200-day moving average before the weekend. I discuss whether gold is relatively cheap or expensive at the current levels and what’s next in the coming weeks.

S&P500 hit the 4500 mark on Wednesday, and at this speed, we could well see the Credit Suisse’s 5000 target reached before next year. Or not. The stock market really starts gaining a momentum that worries many people, as the more the equity prices go up, the sharper a downside correction would be. So, all eyes and ears are now set to the Jackson Hole symposium, where the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell will speak about the Fed’s plans about what’s coming next. To predict how the market could react to Mr. Powell’s speech, we first need to understand what’s priced in and what’s not, and look for the top dividend stocks which would perform better in case of a taper-triggered market selloff.

Up go equities, down goes volatility. Everything is fine, until it is not. We are just a day away from Powell’s Jackson Hole speech and the market optimism is everywhere. US stocks, Chinese stocks, tech stocks, energy stocks. There is an undeniable and a blind optimism in the US stock markets. Three numbers for the day: 3.5, 14 and 68: US House’s $3.5 trillion budget resolution, JD’s 14% jump, & US crude extending gains to $68 per barrel.

US stocks kicked off the week on a positive note amid the FDA approval for the Pfizer and BioNTech vaccine, Comirnaty. That’s what the headlines say, but there is more than that for yesterday’s rally: soft economic data. So, the cheery mood across the US equities is here to stay in the run up to the Jackson Hole meeting, as the Fed Chair Jerome Powell could only soften the hawkish tone of last week’s FOMC minutes. The rising Covid cases and the soft data can only keep the Fed alert and reluctant to act prematurely. And that’s all the market wants to hear. In the FX, the softening Fed expectations weigh on the US dollar, while gold’s positive attempt may not gain momentum above the $1800 mark, as equities remain more appetizing and offer much better returns in an environment of softening Fed expectations.

US stocks closed last week on a positive note, after Dallas Fed President Kaplan said it may be too early to start tapering the bond purchases. And that was all the equity bulls needed to hear.

This week, Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech takes the center stage, and expectations are dovish, which could lead to some recovery after last week’s sell-off

On corporate calendar, JD is due to announce earnings on Monday. Salesforce, HO and Dell will follow during the week.

Bitcoin hits $50K, and Cardano continues its race to the stars.

Oil, on the other hand, remains in the hands of the bears, as rising Covid worries weigh on the recovery prospects.

US markets are being shaken by the Federal Reserve (Fed) hawks, as most FOMC members want to start dialing back the bond purchases before the end of this year.

Amazon slipped below the $3200 mark, as Facebook is testing an important support on the back of discouraging news, and deteriorating risk appetite.

Chinese stocks, on the other hand, are being hammered by additional Chinese crackdown news.

It looks like only worsening Covid news, soft economic data and deteriorating sentiment could convince the Fed members that removing support may not be a good idea and reverse the market mood.

FOMC minutes were hawkish, the market reaction was negative, but not alarmingly negative. But the VIX index jumped 20% as reaction to the latest FOMC minutes release. In this episode, I discuss why the VIX index is a good hedge for an eventual market turmoil. The US dollar index advanced to the highest levels since November, and could further extend gains against its major counterparts on the back of a clear hawkish divergence from the Fed. The question is, will the Fed walk to talk? Elsewhere, oil prices push lower on the back of rising Covid worries, while in equities, the SMI hit fresh record, but the high concentration of a couple of stock sin the SMI index could be a turn-off for investors looking for a more diversified portfolio of Swiss businesses. This is where the Swiss Bliss comes in the picture!

US stocks tumbled the most in a month after the US retail sales declined more than analysts expected in July, and the rising Covid worries and images from Afghanistan dented the global risk appetite. But it’s too early to call for a sustained market correction. The US equities doubled in value after the March 2020 plunge, and some profit-taking and a minor correction are only normal at this point. The FOMC minutes is the major event on today’s economic calendar. Investors will be hunting for hints about the upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) QE tapering. Yesterday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the monetary policy has its limits. Yes, it’s called inflation: the major side-effect of boundless money injection. Any hint on QE tapering could have a meaningful impact on the market sentiment as we are talking about a change in one of the major pillars of the US equity rally. But no panic just yet! While in 2013 we saw a bad market reaction to the tapering announcement, it will certainly be different this time.

The S&P500 hit its fifth consecutive all-time high on Monday, regardless of the most recent inflation report confirming sticky and high inflationary pressures, and growing Covid worries, which threw the UoM’s sentiment index to a decade low level in August. But there is no stopping the US equity rally and although it’s disquieting, strong corporate earnings, low US yields and a relatively soft US dollar are the major catalysts for the US market rally. But the cliff between the economic indicators and the equity prices is somewhat unreasonable, hinting that there is potential for a sizeable downside correction. But when? What could possibly derail the equity rally? Due today, the US retail sales are expected to have retreated by 0.2% m-o-m in July. A slightly negative read may not discourage investors, as the sales jumped 28% y-o-y in March, 51% in April, 28% in May and near 18% in June. Therefore, a minor slowdown in recovery shouldn’t dent the risk appetite. Unless we see a surprisingly negative number, which would point at a faster-than-expected slowdown in recovery, there is nothing that could stop the US stock bulls from flirting with new highs. Except for Tesla, which must deal with a formal investigation against its autopilot function and the energy stocks, as oil prices remain under a decent selling pressure. We see solid resistance forming above the 100-day moving average, a touch below the $68 per barrel, on the back of worries that the rising Covid delta contagion will likely slow down the global economic recovery and dent prospects of a strong global demand.

The week has a soft economic calendar. The FOMC minutes will be the major event on the calendar. Investors are prepared to hear some tapering talk, but the expectations are mostly adjusted for seeing the Fed start tapering bond purchases sooner rather than later. Therefore, the FOMC minutes should not dent the risk appetite.

The softening US yields should keep appetite solid in risk assets, while gold should see solid offers approaching $1800 per ounce.

On the corporate calendar, US big retailers are due to announce earnings and investors won’t settle for anything less than better-than-expected.

In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin purchases accelerate as the RSI index points at overbought market conditions. Could an overbought RSI keep the bulls back from buying more Bitcoin? Hardly.

China closes ports after spotting a worker with Covid, and the growing Covid fears seem to be weighing on Asian sentiment, but the US technology stocks remain on trac for further gains, as Apple prepares to test fresh highs, and Amazon attracts buyers after falling to its 200-day moving average.

On the supply front, Tesla’s Musk complains about disrupted chip supply, but the stock price remains on a positive trend for further gains.

Disney and Palantir gain on strong earnings, Moderna corrects lower after testing the $500 per share earlier this week.

The US dollar gains field against its major peers. The EURUSD is preparing to tip a toe below the 1.17 mark, while Cable is set to test its 200-day moving average on strengthening greenback.

Elsewhere, we shall see a further rally in major cryptocurrencies, but the late comers as Dogecoin may need to wait before catching up on BTC and ETH gains.

Inflation in the US steadies, but the market reaction hints that investors are preparing for a longer period of high inflation, and not necessarily pricing in the possibility of seeing a less hawkish Federal Reserve stance for the next couple of months. Gold recovers fast but the bulls could hit a thick wall of resistance approaching the $1800 per ounce level. In cryptocurrencies, Ethereum has been the most traded cryptocurrency on Coinbase last quarter, as a sign that crypto traders’ attention is now shifting towards Ethereum. Are they right? Could Ethereum overshadow the mother of all cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin? On company level, Samsung unveils its new foldable phone, while Apple is set to make only minor changes to its iPhone this fall. Is it worth buying non-US tech stocks? And if yes, is it worth returning to Chinese tech stocks which are now trading near 40% discount due to the latest government crackdown on big Chinese tech companies?

US Senate approved Joe Biden’s $550 billion worth historical infrastructure plan, which will be submitted to a House vote along with a larger $3.5 trillion spending plan. The Dow gained 0.46%, the S&P500 was flat, while Nasdaq fell on Biden’s infrastructure victory, as investors focused on the flip side of the coin: the huge infrastructure spending would boost the already-high inflationary pressures and may encourage the Federal Reserve (Fed) to dial back its massive bond purchases sooner and quicker to compensate for the massive half a trillion money that’s about to rain on the US economy. The major event on today’s economic calendar is the US consumer price inflation report. How would the market react to a softer or a stronger-than-expected inflation figure? Gold missed its chance to shine over the past months. What would’ve made gold prices shine was soaring inflation expectations and falling US yields. But there is one more bullish exit for the gold bulls, and I talk about it in today’s episode! And finally, there are some encouraging news for oil traders. Yesterday’s API data revealed that the oil inventories in the US fell 816’000 barrels last week. The more official EIA data is due today, and a decline in oil inventories could encourage oil bulls to test the $70 mark. But could the $70 resistance easy to break with a weekly fall in US oil inventories? Not sure! The Covid delta crisis is gaining momentum, and here is the link to the Bloomberg’s Pret Index, as promised. Check it out, it’s a fun play! https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/pret-index

We don’t need the UN’s panel to tell us that our planet is struggling with the climate change, it’s enough to watch the evening news to see that Turkey and Greece are fighting against the worst forest fires in their history due to extreme high temperatures, while Western Europe is inundated, with lakes overflowing and entire villages being swamped by flash floods. Add to that last years’ wildfires in Australia, fires in California, and so. So, yesterday’s UN report came just as a scientific confirmation that all these events have to do with our huge CO2 emissions, and that the planet will warm by 1.5 degrees Celsius within the next two decades and by 2 degrees Celsius within the 21st century. What does it have do with finance? The US indices had a flat session on Monday. Nasdaq eked out small gains. Investors are holding their breath before tomorrow’s US inflation data. There is a chance we see a stronger-than-expected easing in the July inflation numbers in the US, as we saw close to 20% retreat in oil prices during the same month. But even with softer inflation data, the progress in consumer prices will remain high compared to historical averages, and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) average 2% target. The US 10-year yield steadies a touch above the 1.30% mark, with prospects of further upside. That’s applying a positive pressure on the US dollar, and a negative pressure on the EURUSD, which is now down to 1.1730, approaching the next natural bearish target of 1.17. Finally, gold consolidates near the $1730 per ounce after the post-NFP flash crash and should remain under the pressure of higher US yields into tomorrow’s US inflation report.

Asian stock markets kicked off the week on a positive note, although the US indices had nothing more exciting than mixed performance after the announcement of strong jobs data on Friday. The US jobs data gave a small boost to the Dow and the S&P500 which closed Friday’s session 0.41% and 0.17% higher respectively. Yet Nasdaq slid 0.40% to the weekly closing bell, to my surprise, as I would expect the strong jobs data to boost the tech stocks to a certain extent as well, because even though the strong economic data and prospects of a tighter US policy are better for value stocks, the rising Covid cases should keep the tech stocks in demand, regardless of a tighter Fed policy. But apparently, and curiously, investors are not too concerned with the delta crisis just yet. They are, to some extent, as we see the stock markets somewhat moody time to time, but the S&P500 chart doesn’t necessarily hint that there is any kind of stress in the US big caps. Why is that? In commodities, the prospect of higher yields is becoming a serious headache for gold. Gold is not doing well, and Friday’s strong US jobs figures has come as a slap on gold’s face. Moving forward, higher US yields will continue increasing the opportunity cost of holding the non-interest-bearing gold, which didn’t even fully benefit from the overshooting inflation and the ultra-low US yields recently. So, there were clear signs that the more likely scenario was a further selloff, but this week’s inflation figure could ease the pressure, at least for a while. One industry that’s happy with rising rate expectations is the banks, especially those wo are more sensitive to the rates. On earnings calendar, AMC Entertainment, Coinbase, Lordstown, Baidu, Disney, Airbnb and Wish are to report earnings. Cryptocurrencies continue recovering and Bitcoin is now testing the 200-day moving average to the upside!

It’s NFP Friday, and the market mood is not too bad when we think that the major news in the wire point that the rapidly spreading delta variant is about to threaten the economic recovery sooner rather than later. There are event cancellations, companies pushing back their plans to bring employees back to office and a clear shift in consumer behaviour. Happily, the company earnings are relatively strong to keep investors from sliding into a new depression. The US economy is expected to have added 870’000 nonfarm jobs in July, slightly more than last month’s 850’000. However, the analyst estimates tend to be inaccurate these days, therefore, we could well see a number significantly higher or lower than the consensus of analyst estimates. How would the market react to a softer or a stronger-than-expected figure is what I discuss in this episode. Also, in commodities, the recent rebound in the US 10-year yield is now pressuring gold prices lower. One curious thing about the significant easing in the US 10-year yield was the fact that the yellow metal remained relatively unresponsive to it, hinting that the low US yields mostly boosted appetite in the better-paying stock markets. In this respect, the yellow metal has a better chance to break its 1790/1830 range to the downside, unless the US prints an abnormally low jobs data that throws the investor appetite against the wall. Elsewhere, Joe Biden’s statement that half of US car sales should be electric or hybrid by 2030 gives a boost to electric cars, and why not enlarge the scope and invest in battery makers and other companies in the supply chain? Finally, Ethereum’s London fork happened smoothly and Bitcoin is preparing to test the $42K this weekend.

The major event on today’s calendar is Ethereum’s London hard fork, and there are some important changes that are coming for Ethereum. Though a wild price action is certainly not on the agenda, unless things don’t go smoothly as expected, the latest proposals will be important for the Ethereum’s transformation for a more environment friendly and less inflationary asset.

In the traditional markets, the US ADP report missed estimates at yesterday’s release. The data sent the Dow lower, but Nasdaq eked out slight gains. The weak data couldn’t boost the Fed doves in an environment of overshooting inflation and the Fed’s Clarida said the first rate hike is certainly coming in 2023. Ouch. Bad data and the hawkish Fed is not a good elixir for your regular risk investor.

But one stock that just soared was Robinhood, after pajama traders rushed into the mother of the meme frenzy. Is it worth taking a chance in the HOOD rally? It depends on your risk tolerance. I discuss how far the rally could go and give an update on GME and AMC stocks.

Finally, if meme trading is not for you, Swissquote’s Swiss Bliss theme portfolio could well be. So don’t forget to check out Swissquote’s best Swiss company picks for a solid fundamental play!

Major US indices closed Wednesday’s session in the green, but today’s employment figures could rapidly change the market mood. The latest US jobs data will give an indication on how fast the US labour market is progressing towards the Fed’s policy goal, and how close we are to the ‘substantial’ progress that the Fed pursues to trigger the most-apprehended tapering of its massive bond buying program.

The US economy is expected to have added close to 700’000 new private jobs during the month of July. How would a softer or a stronger-than-expected read affect the market mood?

Elsewhere, the fact that the delta variant of the coronavirus is spreading fast is increasingly worrying, as the latest news alters the prospects of economic recovery, especially if governments decide to move toward stricter lockdown measures to break the transmission chains. The problem is, the central banks already deployed all measures to help economies go through the pandemic, and should now deal with overshooting inflation, and not another wave of contagion.

But the Covid news is not a big worry for the US big tech companies, which mind their own business with strong quarterly results, and prospects of further advance in their share prices. Whereas the Chinese big tech are feeling the pinch of the government crackdown. And the latest sector to get hit could well be the gaming industry.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s doggedness about the ‘transitory’ inflation starts being a problem for an increasing number of investors, as, although investors love cheap liquidity and favourable market conditions, an increasing number of them think that the fast monetary expansion should no longer happen at any cost. Powell’s ignorance of the accelerating inflation is now bringing up the question of, is he making a policy mistake, and whether the US monetary policy and hence, the markets are safe in his hands. European and US indices were mostly offered yesterday. Dow Jones eked out slight gains, but Nasdaq slid 0.70% as the US monetary policy fears eclipsed the idea that rising Covid cases would re-fuel demand in most beloved tech stocks.

With thin summer volumes and mounting pessimism, we could see Nasdaq correct some 5 to 7% to the downside, toward the 50 and 100-day average levels respectively, but the medium-term outlook remains positive on the back of strong earnings growth and a more-than-favourable monetary conditions, despite rising prospects of an early policy tightening.

Elsewhere, sustainable investing is a trending theme as European policymakers step up efforts to reduce CO2 emissions. What is the best way to play the green revolution?

Why cannabis stocks are sputtering despite encouraging legislation news, and what could happen if Bitcoin breaks the $30K support?

Jerome Powell insists that inflation is transitory, and the Fed will remain focused on the jobs recovery while many starts questioning whether the transitory inflation, is lasts longer-than-ideal, would throw the foundation for a longer high-inflation headache. But for now, the market sentiment remains positive on prospects of no Fed tightening due to rising inflation. Apple hits record on ‘Buy Now Pay Later’ boost, Netflix gains on plans to throw games on its streaming platform, Alibaba extends recovery, though the US-China news hint at no improvement in the relationship under the Biden government. In commodities, oil dropped $3 on news that Saudi Arabia and the UAE agreed for boosting supply, though there is not much clarity on details yet. Overall, the oil chart looks toppish as most factors are supportive of a deeper downside correction in oil prices, rather than being supportive for a rally above the $75 per barrel threshold.

Major US indices came off their all-time highs after the US inflation data showed further acceleration in consumer prices in June. Chinese tech giants rallied, however, as investors returned to cheapened ADRs amid government crackdown. Jay Powell begins his two-day testimony before US policymakers, so inflation and what to do against it will be the major discussion topic for the day. Everybody has a favorite inflation play. What’s yours?

S&P500 and Nasdaq renew record ahead of the US inflation data. In this episode, we discuss how the market would react to a soft, or a strong US inflation. Elsewhere, euro remains weakened on the back of a dovish shift in ECB policy. What will happen to the franc? On individual stocks front, Virgin Galactic tanked 17% after Branson’s space flight, but space tourism looks increasingly possible for Mr. Everyone. And, Tesla is at crossroads as the three-month symmetrical triangle narrows, forcing investors to make a decision on direction.

Asian stocks start the week on positive note on liquidity-boosting measures from the People’s Bank of China, but rising Covid concerns weigh on reflation trade. Oil remains offered below $75pb, as gold sees limited appetite near $1800 per oz. Investors will focus on US big bank earnings and the US inflation this week, while next week’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting will remain one of the popular market topics after the ECB head Lagarde hinted at new guidance measures at next week’s meeting.

Rising Covid concerns pull equities and the Us yields lower. But how worried investors really are? Chinese tech stocks took a big hit this week, but UBS says today’s pain will likely be tomorrow’s gain. In commodities, gold gains but the upside potential will likely remained capped as risk returns remain appetizing elsewhere, while oil remains bid above $70 on tightening US oil reserves. Bitcoin remains stuck within the $30/35K range, but given the latest stabilization in price, we shall not see a dramatic dive below the $30K anymore. What are the next support levels to watch?

Chinese tech are hammered this week with the government crackdown on Didi. With the waning selloff, would it be interesting to enter the most beloved Chinese names? Nasdaq and the S&P500 hit record on Wednesday, as the Fed minutes showed that US policymakers remained concerned with the economic outlook. Apple rallied to a fresh high and JP Morgan said it’s ‘time to start buying’ Apple shares again. In the FX, the EURUSD tests the 1.1780 as the ECB changes its inflation target to give itself more flexibility to remain dovish faced with the rising inflationary pressures.

OPEC can’t agree on the production-cut deal. US crude remains steady at $75 but downside risks prevail. Rising oil prices could soon weigh on S&P500 valuations, though the earnings growth has been encouraging recently, pulling the S&P500 forward PE ratio lower according to the latest JP Morgan Guide: https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/market-insights/guide-to-the-markets/mi-guide-to-the-markets-us.pdf Nasdaq renews record as space investing comes in focus with SpaceX and Virgin Galactic’s projects. Finally, Didi is in trouble after getting its app kicked off the app stores in China on government demand, ouch!

Crude oil pushes higher on OPEC+ indecision to rise oil supply. In this episode, we discuss, what’s the upside potential in the actual oil rally in case of no action, and what are the major risks. On the data front, the US jobs data will be under close watch as the major US indices flirt with all-time high levels. On corporate news, Nio released an exciting deliveries report, and investors are curious about how well Tesla did in the second quarter. On cryptocurrencies, Elon Musk’s latest Doge tweets didn’t boost appetite and Bitcoin remains stuck within the $30/35k range, with a rising risk of a slide below the $30K mark.

Strong US ADP report boosted the Dow Jones, while Nasdaq ended Wednesday’s session slightly lower. Roku rallied 3%, as Didi, the Chinese Uber made a solid debut in New York Stock Exchange. Today, all eyes are on the OPEC+ decision which could either send the price of US crude to $70/72 area, or above the $75 resistance. What will OPEC do faced with rising Covid cases?

Nasdaq renewed record as Facebook rallied to a fresh high after the dismissal of antitrust probes against the tech giant. Tesla remained capped at $700, Nio is preparing to test the $50 offers. Demand in gold remains poor, as investors continue buying better yielding stocks. Big US banks on the other hand increase dividends and buybacks following the Fed’s stress test.

Joe Biden’s tentative infrastructure deal sent US stocks to record highs. Tesla advanced, while meme carmakers eased from Wednesday highs. Marin Software and Wish were among the most traded stocks in the US. Elsewhere, US big banks passed the Fed’s stress test and are now free to increase dividends and share buybacks. BP, on the other hand, was downgraded to hold at HSBC on persistent investor pessimism. On the cryptocurrency front, investors will hold their breath during the weekend, as the rebound following this week’s plunge below $30K hasn’t been strong enough to rule out another dive. And the coin will lack institutional support during weekend trading.

Tesla rallies on first rank on cars.com American-Made index. Other electric carmakers gain, as well, on E&Y report that EV cars will outpace gas-powered cars by 2033, five years earlier than their previous prediction. Amazon Prime Day sales are strong, but not surprisingly strong. Major US indices are flat as investors await the Q1 GDP print. In UK, the BoE will likely maintain the status quo, yet Cable has potential to make a return above 1.40 even with a neutral BoE stance.

Bitcoin selloff remained limited near the $30K. What will take Bitcoin to shake off the bearishness? Amazon Prime Day sales could be shadowed by supply shortages and slow logistics, but investors keep buying US big techs; Microsoft saw its market cap shot above $2 trillion on Tuesday. Speaking of slow logistics, have a look at shipping companies, they’re doing just great. Wish, on the other hand, has the Reddit push. Is Wish a buy?

Post-Fed moodiness is rapidly brushed away, as the Fed Chair Jerome Powell will only say sweet things about the Fed supportive plans in his congressional testimony today. Bitcoin held ground near the $30K support at the latest sell-off. But the death cross formation hints at a mounting urge to sell the coin in expectation of a further fall. We discuss how seriously the $30K support is threatened. On the company news, Lordstown is losing market confidence as the company holds a five-day media event this week. What are investors looking for, and who prudent is to buy or to sell the stock. Finally, Plug Power will release Q1 earnings and a smaller loss per share could boost the stock price as the sustainability and clean energy remain the most popular investing themes of the moment.

Week starts on a bearish note but Amazon Prime day and strong PMI data could improve the investor mood. ECB’s Lagarde and Fed’s Powell will likely reiterate their support to the economy, yet strong data could continue playing in favour of a stronger US dollar. Gold, copper and lumber remain under a decent selling pressure, while we question what’s the matter for a broader rage of commodities should have been good for inflation hedging. US crude pushes higher after Iran elections raising difficulties for a nuclear deal. On the corporate calendar, Nike, FedEx and Blackberry are due to release earnings this week and Nike’s Xinjiang headache could weigh on numbers and on forecasts.

Major US indices were mixed following a more hawkish than expected Fed statement this week, but Nasdaq brushed off the Fed hawkishness relatively fast. Gold didn’t. Lordstown on the other hand fell again on news that there are no binding orders and could be on its way to become a new Theranos. Else, the market has a deeper exposure to meme stocks than you think as many popular ETFs have GameStop, AMC and other meme stocks in their portfolio. And Bitcoin’s latest positive push remained short of the 200-day moving average resistance. What’s next for Bitcoin?

The Federal Reserve surprised the markets with unexpected hawkish revision. Major US indices fell, gold tanked. In this episode, I discuss what are the best inflation and post-pandemic assets. Also, GM deserves a look as the company plans to go faster in the electric car race.

The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its ultra-supportive monetary policy unchanged as investors will be looking for hints of bond tapering. Equities trade a touch below all-time highs, but Fed risks remain tilted to the dove-side. Oil extends gains above $72 per barrel, cannabis stocks pull back, as Lordstown Motors jump 11% on news that they will finally make card until next May.

S&P500 and Nasdaq renewed record into this week’s Fed decision, on expectation that the Fed will remain comfortably dovish on its policy stance despite improved economic recovery, encouraging jobs data and overshooting inflation. Apple, Amazon, Facebook gain, as meme stocks, except AMC, remain on the backfoot. Gold falls, Bitcoin consolidates near $40K and oil extends gains above $70 per barrel. Energy stocks gain, but upside potential in oil remains limited.

Slow start to the week. FOMC meeting id the major highlight of the economic calendar, along with US producer prices and retail sales data, which should not have a notable impact on Fed’s decision. US indices are preparing to renew record, as investors are looking for the next meme stock that could see its price boosted by Redditers. Elsewhere, Bitcoin recovers on Elon Musk’s pledge to resume transactions in Bitcoin if the mining gets green enough to convince him that Bitcoin transactions are not adding to pollution concerns on a planet that’s already struggling with serious climate issues. One other name that fits into G7’s new B3W project is the no-cow Oatly, that sees its price boosted since its debut last month. Is it worth buying the stock?

Inflation worries didn’t worry investors much, as major US indices closed higher on Thursday. Technology stocks led gains. Apple hired ex-BMW executive to speed up efforts and quickly join the booming electric car market. But before Apple, you should take a look at Nio, which looks promising, and cheap in comparison to its impressive growth potential. Bitcoin, and cryptocurrencies are up on encouraging regulation news. Could Bitcoin surf on the regulation wave to chase the dark clouds of the latest sell-off away?

US inflation, ECB decision are the major events on today’s economic calendar. I discuss why a strong inflation read may not be a problem for the risk appetite and what assets are among Swissquote’s best picks to play the inflation theme. Bitcoin continues seeing solid selling pressure and strong resistance in its attempts to conquer the $40K mark. What’s next?

Slow trading session. Reddit’s wallstreetbets’ new sweetheart Clover Health is up by 85%. Rally in AMC is cooling off, but GameStop could push higher before and after earnings announcement due today. Elsewhere, US-European Trade and Technology Council could give a boost to semiconductors. Bitcoin found solid support near $31K, but the death cross formation will likely be the next important technical test. Oil is higher on US inventories decline last week, but upside may be limited above the $70 per barrel handle.

There is a clear lack of appetite on higher tax and higher interest rates talk ahead of Thursday’s US inflation data, but tech stocks may be just slightly hit as global financial conditions remain loose and their earnings are on a solid growth path. UBS raises Japanese value stocks to most preferred list. Biogen, on the other hand, rallied on FDA approval on its controversial Alzheimer drug. Downside risks prevail. Gold tests $1900 per oz, US crude eases, and Bitcoin tumbles to $32K.

US jobs data was strong enough to spur optimism about the economic recovery, but soft enough to keep the Fed hawks away, but Janet Yellen’s mention that a stronger interest rate environment would be a ‘plus’ weighed on US futures in Asia. US inflation, ECB, BoC meetings, GameStop earnings and the AMC squeeez will be under close watch this week. Bitcoin, on the other hand, comes undamaged out of weekend trading, even though Elon Musk tweeted a broken heart just before the weekly closing bell. What’s next?

Tesla lost another 5% on significant fall in China sales. Ford was the biggest winner on tripled sales data. Amazon and Apple are below the 200-day moving average as strong economic data pressures tech stocks to the downside. Today’s NFP read could do more harm to tech stocks, but medium, long-term view remains positive. AMC Entertainment’s new short squeeze wave could be fading, pot stocks showed diverging performance. Sundial stepped out of the crowd and gained 14%.

AMC Entertainment gained another 127% on Wednesday, and traders wonder what’s the upside potential left in the new wave of short squeeze. Cannabis stocks gain on news that Amazon would stop screening for the drug at the work place, except when it is needed. Tesla tumbles on data showing a global market share loss, while firmer crude oil pushes energy stocks higher. Yet, we should see a limited activity on the index level before today’s ADP and tomorrow’s NFP report.

Crude oil extends gains as OPEC+ decides to increase oil supply globally despite tightening demand-supply gap. Energy stocks are doing better in a market poor of price action before Friday’s jobs data. US yields remain subdued, hinting that market expects inflation to slow down in the coming months, but the US yields are still expected to rise, and the latter could weigh on bullion’s price. UBS sees gold at $1600 per oz within the next twelve months. On corporate news, Zoom posted blowout earnings and Canopy Growth released worse-than-expected results.

Crude oil pushes higher on expectation of further relaxation in OPEC+ production cut regime. But appetite in energy stocks remain subdues on rising environmental pressures. FTSE 100 is well positioned to benefit from the global reflation trade, though I don’t expect a sizeable portfolio reshuffle before Friday’s US jobs report. Amazon and Apple test important support, Tesla could extend gains as Elon Musk claims he’s built the fastest car ever.

It’s a slow day as the US is closed, but it won’t be a slow week as PMI data and US jobs figures will keep investors busy, along with Zoom Video Communications and Canopy Growth earnings. Here is why I’m short Zoom despite strong earnings expectations and long Canopy despite negative earnings. On commodities, copper futures continue pushing higher, while gold remains on a slippery ground above $1900 per oz.

Robust economic data, huge fiscal spending boost appetite in stocks. Value, meme and cannabis stocks gain as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies remain under a decent selling pressure into the weekend. Oil companies couldn’t benefit from firmer oil prices this week, due to the increased pressure from environmental groups and activists, but BP is approaching the buy zone as oil companies remain a good reflation play, after all.

Latest crypto-rout redirects speculation capital to meme stocks. GameStop and AMC Entertainment rally, as Bitcoin sees solid resistance near the $40K handle. Major US indices are stable ahead of today’s US GDP report. We discuss the possible market reaction to the data on the index level. In company news, Ford’s plans to accelerate electrification please investors, Amazon’s MGM deal sees little price action, oil companies are under the pressure for going green. Plug Power is up despite the recent death cross formation, and Disney is a top pick at UBS.

Sentiment is mixed into Thursday’s US GDP report. Nasdaq gains, S&P500 lags, but investors question where to invest in the rising inflation environment. Some ETFs offer an efficient hedge against inflation. Else, Amazon investors care little about the latest antitrust allegations, as Coinbase jumps 8% after JP Morgan and Goldman issue Buy rating for the company’s stock. Gold nears overbought conditions above the $1900 per oz, as US crude sees little appetite above the $65 per barrel on softer-than-expected drop in US oil inventories last week.

Global equities are better bid despite volatility in cryptocurrencies and Chinese crackdown on commodities trading. Amazon’s MGM acquisition, Nvidia Q1 earnings, the US Q1 GDP data and Coindesk’s consensus conference are the major events on this week’s calendar. Wells Fargo is cautious on Tesla, Goldman issues a Buy rating for Coinbase, as Bitcoin consolidates near its 200-day moving average.

Global equities see some relief. Nasdaq led gains in New York, but not all stocks gain. Coinbase continues struggling as Bitcoin takes another hit from the US Treasury department this time. Oatly, on the other hand, made a great debut in Nasdaq yesterday, as ESG investors wanted a take a sip from the delicious looking Oatly shares, but there are red flags that the actual valuation may be too overstretched, and competition doesn’t sleep.

In this episode, I talk about learnings from the last crypto-sell off and what could you do to better manage your cryptocurrency portfolio. Also, Nasdaq could rebound as price dips at underlying stocks look appetizing for long-term investors.

Bitcoin dives below $40K, Walmart earnings beat expectations and one Morgan Stanley analyst fly high on his price prediction.

Limited risk appetite, softer US dollar and cryptocurrency reshuffle are the major talking points. I talk about the difference between PoW and PoS, the implications for cryptocurrencies and also, the ‘Big Short’ going after Tesla.

Virus worries, inflation worries and environmental worries. The week starts on a mixed note, Bitcoin test important technical support. Here is what to expect from the Week Ahead.

In this episode, we discuss what we shall see in US inflation data, how the market could react and what you could do to take advantage of the current fear environment.

Inflation worries take a toll on tech stocks before Wednesday’s inflation data. Why inflation matters, and what matters more than inflation?

Weak US jobs boosted risk appetite ahead of Wednesday’s inflation report. Biontech, Disney to announce earnings. Gold, oil progress.

US jobs data could confirm a substantial progress, the Fed thinks that valuations are overstreteched, and investors are waiting for Elon Musk on Saturday Night Live to send the Doge to the moon.

Reflation gives support to USD ahead of Friday’s jobs data, EURUSD slips below 1.20 and nears a death-cross formation, GBPUSD steady below 1.40 before the BoE decision. Will the BoE dare bringing the taper talk on the table?

Strong ADP read could further boost the Fed hawks ahead of Friday’s US jobs figures. Uber to announce earnings and could announce improved guidance on prospects of reopening. We talk about where investors see the share price in about a year from now.

Pfizer to announce earnings. The reflation theme boosts S&P500, weighs on Nasdaq. Should you sell in May and go away, or is it a good time to enter hydrogen stocks?

Lighter corporate earnings calendar and strong US jobs expectations due Friday could lead to some profit taking in US stock markets. Meanwhile, Baidu launches driverless taxis in Beijing.

Amazon and Logitech announced smashing quarterly results. Amazon shares jumped after market, but Logitech’s plunged. Why?

Apple, Facebook announced a great quarter. What are the expectations for Amazon, and for the Reddit wallstreetbets new darling Microvision?

Anything less than super-beat could dent appetite in Facebook, Apple trading as it has been the case with Microsoft. And could Powell dare bringing the taper talk on the table?

Tesla under pressure after strong earnings announcement. Microsoft and Google hit record before earnings, as Nasdaq and S&P500 advance to uncharted territories a day before the FOMC decision.

JPMorgan-backed Super League fell apart, Credit Suisse revealed the Archegos-led losses and ECB is preparing to announce no change in its monetary policy today. American Airlines, Nestle, Snap and Intel are among companies due to announce earnings today.

Dogecoin, or other risky assets happen for a reason, and they are probably not unheard by policymakers. Netflix surprises to the downside, Procter&Gamble will rise its products prices. EURUSD eases, GBPUSD lost the 1.40 level, gold appetite remains strong, as oil falls.

Netflix earnings are due after market close. Sentiment is mixed but data shows the Wall Street cuts short positions significantly. Cable hits 1.40, EURUSD extends gains above 1.20, gold nears $1800 per oz, while Bitcoin remains under selling pressure.

Bitcoin consolidates after 15% plunge over the weekend. Netflix, Intel and Snap are among big names releasing earnings this week. UK inflation, European Central Bank meeting and more. What investors will be watching this week?

Major US indices rallied and yields eased on strong economic data, Coinbase struggles as traditional investors say no and Credit Suisse revises its price target for Square.

Coinbase made a whipsaw debut in Nasdaq, Bitcoin fell from all-time highs. Turkish lira is testing important support against the US dollar as its new central bank head prepares to maintain rates unchanged.

Coinbase makes its debut in Nasdaq, and Bitcoin hits record. GRAB announces a SPAC deal. Rising US inflation combined to limited action in US yields boosts gold.

Binance issues Tesla stock token, Bitcoin pushes higher a day before the Coinbase IPO. But investor mood remains dull ahead of the US inflation data. Else, Nvidia prepares to enter the CPU market and Microsoft buys Nuance.

Coinbase will start trading on Nasdaq on Wednesday, Bitcoin trades past $60K. Market sentiment remains dull before Tuesday’s US inflation data, as Q1 earnings season kicks off with banks this week. Gold struggles below 50-dma, EURUSD is ready for another leg down.

Risk sentiment is fragile ahead of US PPI data, gold is about to reverse the medium-term bearish trend and Beyond Meat faces competition from Impossible Foods, preparing a $10 billion IPO within a year.

S&P500 extends gains, but investors feel less confident about the future. Samsung announced strong results, Bitcoin tests $55K support as euro bears look to strengthen positions near technical resistance.

Archegos hangover is almost over, but questions remain. Bitcoin gains as Visa plans allowing USD coin transactions, Tesla under pressure. Ever Given is free and oil is up ahead of the OPEC+ decision

Friday’s block sales didn’t impact investor sentiment. Ever Given is about to be free again. Chip shortage to weigh on Tesla, Nio deliveries. Solid NFP expectations and Biden’s massive infrastructure plan to keep positive pressure on yields.

Bitcoin tests $50K support on rising worries of energy and chip consumption. Nike and Adidas are in the crossfire of Xinjiang dispute and Ever Given remains stuck in the Suez Canal.

Market sentiment is mixed on combination of encouraging news and soft data, oil rallies on Suez incident and Tencent falls after earnings announcement. We discuss risks and opportunities on government forcing for fintech spin-off.

EURUSD slips below the 200-day moving average. Dip-buyers are looking for tactical long opportunities. Nasdaq to benefit from the return of Covid worries, and Cathie Wood strengthens 3D Systems holdings.

GameStop release earnings, could results live up to strong expectations? Globally, market mood is mixed and the sell-off in Turkish markets could slow down, but long-term risks prevail.

Turkish lira gets hammered after Central Bank Head gets fired. We talk about what next for Turkey and the lira, and what to expect from the week ahead.

US crude plunges 9%, dashes hope for an advance to $100 per barrel. Reflation trade continues in a panic mode sending Tesla, GameStop and Roblox lower. Bitcoin contributes to global chip shortage and raises questions on the viability of the coinization.

Nike and FedEx announce earnings in a cheery market environment as the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting gave a boost to the doves. US dollar is softer, but gains in the euro, gold and the yen could remain short-lived. Meanwhile, the Bank of England is expected to sound cautiously optimistic to not revive BoE hawks.

Elon Musk declares himself Technoking of Tesla which stays ahead of the electric car game, but Volkswagen follows closely behind. AstraZeneca in difficulty, the Fed begins its two-day meeting and Bitcoin falls.

In this episode, we compare China’s two e-commerce giants Alibaba versus JD.com. We also talk about the major events on this week’s economic calendar.

South Korean e-commerce giant Coupang had a successful IPO. Joe Biden signs the latest fiscal aid package and cryptocurrencies should not suffer from the reflation trend.

Roblox, a leading user-generated gaming site goes online and looks exciting, as #GameStop volatility becomes disquieting. Joe Biden’s $1.9 fiscal aid package is ready to deploy and ECB announces its latest policy decision today.