Globalism 2.0: Recent Episodes
globalism2 / Andrew Hupert
International commerce is transforming so front-line managers have to change their approach. Covid, decoupling, the rise of China, Brexit, and a fractious US political environment are creating new challenges -- and new opportunities -- for international negotiators and leaders. Globalism2.0 is already here.
Globalism 2.0. Episode 17:
All In On Mexico…
(Another ChinaPat presentation)
- The end of the story: If your supply chain / manufacturing is in China and you are planning to someday, definitely take a serious look at alternatives - then this is your day.
- Mexico is the default move for “near-shoring”. The no-brainer part ends there, though. You have a lot of decisions to make and many, many new things to figure out.
- Mexico is the classic "fast or cheap" type of economy. You're running out of fast.
In this episode:
- All in on Mexico, but… The good news, the bad news, and the potential for a China presence.
- You are on your own. If you learned about China from expensed visits to the Canton Fair (4 Seasons), then you may be in a for a surprise. But as always in Mexico – that’s OUTSIDE OF MEXICO CITY. (You’ll be hearing that a lot.) But if you were early enough to China to have enjoyed some adventure business travel, then you may be in luck.
- Time is NOT on your side. The big MNCs are already here, doing manufacturing in a big way up north. No BRI deals for Mexico (the reason might surprise you), but there will definitely be a China Inc. presence in the neighborhood.
Protectionism Gets Ugly
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Food protectionism.
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Remember – for every natural problem there will be a bureaucratic response that is potentially more dangerous and damaging. Check your supply chain for vulnerabilities.
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US prestige in no longer a question. It is falling.
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Snubs from the South, confusion in Asia… front line decision-makers from the US have to prepare for the era of No Soft Power.
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BEA in Mexico. Let’s talk about CRIME.
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Types of crime
- Crime and the front line decision-maker
- How YOU see crime vs. how MEXICANS see crime (in Mexico)
Globalism 2.0 Episode 15. Governments and Corporations Unite Against Consumers! Saying the quiet parts about STATISM out loud.
Also: BEA on Mexico – STEEPLE Analysis
This week Globalism2.0 looks at STATISM – the blurring of lines between states and corporations. Everyone’s doing it – but the US approach and Chinese approach LOOK different in the formative stages. End of the story – Statist actors from all over will get along just fine.
In this episode:
- Comparing US and Chinese Statist behavior. Chinese actors are directed by the Party, while US policymakers and bureaucrats take their cues from corporate strategists. We’ll look at Cosco Shipping and Amazon as cases.
- Will the US disengage from China? Yes and No. Consumers will decouple – and pay higher prices for less variety as a result. US-based MNCs (and those with good global networks) will NOT decouple (or even slow down their China investments).
- 360 Degree Analysis of Mexico. This week we continue our BEA (Business Environment Analysis), using Mexico as our case study. We introduce the STEEPLE framework as a simple tool for organizing research (and coordinating teams).
This week we look at 2 summits between the US and leaders of key emerging markets – ASEAN and LatAm. These should both be slam dunks, but as we’ll see the Biden Admin is encountering resistance.
- Business culture – the key challenge to building profitable, durable long term business relationships.
- Bad economics has become good politics – which means you are on your own. No favorable policies, no answer to Chinese offers, no government boosts from new agreements or treaties.
- Relationships in Mexico are possible – but it is work, and if you are from the US, you’ve got to clear some headwinds.
- China is – and always will be – in the background.
Introduction to BEA (biz environment analysis). The case is Mexico. The assignment - build your Information Plan about Mexican business & culture.
- To help us build our Information Plan about a new culture, I’ve prepared a simple quiz for ChinaPats about Mexico business.
- 3 points for each phrase you can correctly identity or define.
- 2 bonus points for the China analog or corresponding issue in China.
1.Port of Manzanillo (Mexico)
2.Maquiladora
3.Shelter Company / Shelter Arrangement
4.IMMEX
5.E.E.U.U
6.North American
7.AMLO
8.Morena Party
9.T-MEC
10.TIPAT
11.CBX
12.Litio
13.CFE
14.La Iniciativa de la Franja y la Ruta
15.Exploiter
You can take your SUPPLY CHAIN out of China, but you can’t take CHINA out of your SUPPLY CHAIN
- The discussion is no longer about IF you should shift your supply chain out of China/Asia, but HOW?
- Mexico is your first stop if you are exploring options in LAC – Latin America / Caribbean.
- China Inc. is already busy in LatAm, so you may keep some old contacts – and some of the same old problems.
- Mexico and LatAm are much more DIY than China was – so it’s unwise to put off getting started with your investigation and planning.
globalism2
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Spheres of Influence are Re-forming
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The anti-Russia efforts have been led by Europe and the US.
- Former colonies (Africa, SE Asia, India, etc.) are showing less enthusiasm for increasing sanctions.
- Old alliances are still holding together in some cases, but much of the world is in play.
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US decision-makers (you) will face the challenges from a persistent America First approach.
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Are we already in Economic Word War 1?
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US Treasury is actively pushing Russia into default.
- Russia loses MFN status.
- New investments in Russia are ILLEGAL for US & Euros
3.LatAm is the place to be – and everyone knows it but you.
- Well – not really. But CrunchBase is reporting that LatAm was the #1 recipient of venture cap funds in 2021.
- Mattel is the latest MNC to announce a big investment in Mexican production capacity.
- China sees. LAC BRI investment has been growing significantly.
- Peru instituting new taxes to make sure domestic producers aren't making windfall profits. In other words, it's different here. Tread carefully – but make your move.
Globalism 2.0 Ep 10: Is Globalism dead? For now.
1.No more normal. Negotiations in Ukraine are just a new front in the ongoing war. The international coalition supporting Ukraine isn’t quite as comprehensive as we once thought. India, LatAm, MENA, and Africa are all in play.
2.Dollar dominance under threat? Yes…but the Yuan isn’t gaining. Cryptos & baskets of “boring” national currencies (think Canada, Finland, etc.) are growing. Spoiler alert: Central banks like transparency and stability.
3.What about China? The REAL sanction package is going to be aimed at China. This was always the plan – since 2018. Red states – and those that want to run them – see China as the new “holy war”. Russia is practically an old buddy to the politicians writing anti-China rules (on BOTH sides of the aisle).
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The Chain of Disruption – the slow moving train wreck of sanctions & logistics breakdowns - that is eating your supply chain.
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The new scarcities: food, fuel, and materials.
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Case Study: Fertilizer and the coming famine
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China is Next for Sanctions
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The Ukraine is just a distraction from the “real” competition -- CHINA.
- Republicans will prep for 2024 elections with strong anti-China rhetoric… and sanctions.
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Potential for military conflicts should NOT be ignored…
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Meanwhile, in other emerging economies.
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LatAm – exporting criminals to Silicon Valley. Venezuela and Guyana heat up.
- Africa - Zambia rebelling against China (for now)
- Mideast & India like Putin and PetroYuan.
- China Wins the War -- by doing nothing. The Chinese have a concept known as Wu Wei - to do by not doing (or to let things happen according to nature). Trying to pressure the Chinese side to take specific action is a sure-fire way to make them dig in and wait for developments to become more clear.
The newest MAGA problem. We’re winning the war, losing the peace.
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Guns, Sanctions, Alliances. In the old days, infantries grabbed territory, sanctions grabbed headlines. This round was different though… and China should be nervous.
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Meanwhile in Latin America, MENA, and other dev markets... Columbia is upgraded to extra special BFF while China sets its sites on LatAm. Saudi and India look at Yuan denominate petro trade.
In this episode, we look out into the distant future (1 year) and test a few possible scenarios that may
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- Post Ukraine World. Potemkin Putin or Angry Wounded Bear? Russia may force a regime change in Kiev, but the fighting will continue . One possible scenario is that Russia will be broke, Ukraine butchered – and the rest of Eastern Europe on high alert.
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- China Russia, and a World United. Everyone is terrified of a potential Russia-China axis, but when China says “Russia is a strategic partner” – it’s China’s strategy. Big talk, but so far Russia has gotten more support from the GOP’s Putin wing than they have from Xi. China’s strategy includes grain, energy, pipes, and access for BRI projects.
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- Statist battle: How many Big Macs equal a T-14? Official sanctions were quick, unified, severe – but expected. But the embargo and departure of western suppliers (where the Russian population knows very little about the war). Not just dual use technology - beloved soft-power brands like McDonalds, Coke , Apple and lots more are publicly moving out of Russia. And then of course, there’s SWIFT.
Globalism 2.0. Episode 6: When Did China Know? He Says, Xi Says.
In this episode:
- Are China and Russia still an item? Yes, but it’s on the DL now. China will buy grain and energy – but no more public scenes.
- Cybersecurity and YOU. Congratulations. You (and your company’s network) and innocent bystanders. Will fear of cyberattack kill the beloved Work From Home?
- Mexico gets a real union. For decades, US corporate bosses have manipulated Mexican labor laws to exploit workers – but now that may be coming to an end. Before you start cheering… where does you company produce its parts?
In this weeks edition of Globalism 2.0 – News Rules and Tools front-line managers need to stay competitive in a shifting trade environment.
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- Mexico Notes. What the Great Avocado War can teach us about business, why Puerto Vallarta’s cartel presence is so disturbing, and how a new wave of labor union activism is changing the Maquiladora landscape.
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- The Pink Tide, CELAC, and YOU. LAC is said to be undergoing a shift from right-wing authoritarianism to left-wing authoritarianism. What does this mean to YOU and your competitive position in LAC.
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- The Empires strike back. The US releases its revised Indo-Asia Strategy and the EU offers to bankroll Africa’s development. Will this BRI pushback be effective? How will it impact your business?
1.BRI in LatAm Watch: Argentina signs up for China’s BRI program, receives a Hualong 1 nuclear reactor. Probably an expensive one.
2.Statism Alert: The “New Nasa” is a private firm with strong business interests in China. Does anyone else see a problem here?
3.US-China Trade War: Are Trump-era trade restrictions and tariffs being reconsidered – in favor of more restrictive, invasive regs?
In this week's edition of Globalism 2.0:
- Argentina goes full BRI for the Chinese infrastructure program.
- Slow-Grow LatAm has G2 implications for front line managers
- China and Russia and You. What does the Super Bromance mean for your competitive environment.
We kick off Season 2 with a definitive answer to the big question on everyone’s mind – is China making inroads into Latin America, and will there be political or commercial push-back from the US? Spoiler alert – Yes China is, and there undoubtedly will be some kind of reaction.
We also look at China as strategic competitor, using Iran as our case.
Finally – dismal growth numbers continue to make LatAm markets look risky. In Asia the big headline growth numbers always made us look smarter and safer. LAC just doesn’t have the ballooning middle class that developing markets in Asia do.
Globalism 2.0 The Podcast is back! This season we're coming to you from Mexico, where we've "near-shored". This season we'll look at how LAC - Latin America & Caribbean economies are interacting with China and the US. We continue to analyze the new global economy based on 5 Factors:
1. Fading of unchallenged US global leadership
2. The rise of discrete spheres of influence
3. TechWar (competition for control of technological standards & platforms)
4. Institutions are OUT, "shallow" trade agreements are IN
5. Statism - blurred lines between governments and corporations
- US trade policy used to be made in the background by fairly plugged in actors who understood the big picture.
- Now commercial policy is another political football in the broken Thunderdome of US partisan politics.
- Even when good decisions are accidently made, they are ad-hoc, temporary, and overshadowed by partisan rhetoric.
- Competitors and allies alike operate under the assumption that a whole new policy initiative could be announced any week .
- Front-line managers had best brace for more bureaucracy and adverse regulation at home while the China juggernaut continues to plow its way to broader expansion – and deeper influence. www.Globalism2.com
- Latin America has been largely overlooked by investors and major powers, but that might be changing as resources, market access and geopolitics promise a RESET for the region – with China looking to capitalize.
- China’s OTHER global disruption project – the Digital Silk Road – will underpin the better-known Belt and Road Initiative. The Digital Silk Road is built around a digital yuan, which is a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) If it works, China will emerge as a global financial superpower – leapfrogging incumbents in the US and Europe. If it fails, the BRI will be rendered little more than another empty public relations scheme.
- Democracy is in retreat in developing (and devolving) economies around the world. The rise of DINO (Democracy in Name Only) economies in SE Asia and Latin America play to China’s strengths, and put Western front line managers and negotiators at a serious competitive disadvantage.
- The US China dispute is morphing from a trade war to a global competition for influence, alliances, markets, and resources.
- China’s proactive, meticulously planned, all-of-country approach seems to be reaping rewards for now, as it expands its influence in SE Asia, Africa, and now Central Asia.
- The US is still reacting with an ad-hoc collection of regulations and diplomatic scrambling.
- The Western Cold-War mentality that government plans are by-definition inefficient and destined for failure simply doesn’t jibe with Beijing's economic and social success since the 1990s.
- China’s biggest threat is, as it has always been, China – over-reach and hostility have doomed empires before, and may do so again. If the West is unified and open, it will be able to capitalize on any disruption in China’s growing sphere of influence.
- If, however, we are consumed by internal nationalistic priorities we will squander every opportunity to reclaim influence.
- Western business people -- particularly American front-line decision-makers – are waiting for cooler heads to prevail and find common ground to do the sensible thing for global trade .
- In the power centers of the world, however, nationalists are hardening their positions and broadening their range of activities.
- The chances of your once-simple trades getting bogged down in toxic avalanche of regulation and restrictions is rising.
- You aren’t afraid of regulators giving you an out-and-out NO – but rather an endless cycle of reviews, applications for approvals, and opaque decision-making that you can’t manage effectively.
Globalism2.0 – Episode 23.
- You all know the story of the Frog in the Pot of Water. If the temperature rises slow and steady enough, he or she won’t recognize the danger until it’s too late.
- The temperature of US-China official relations is getting steadily hotter, and both sides are scattering political landmines that may blow up your business down the line.
- The US is raising Taiwan’s profile and prestige.
- China is influencing the freedom of information and availability of websites.
- The risk here isn’t out-and-out war, but rather politicians and parties writing popular/nationalistic regulations that kill your business.
- State involvement and expanding trade alliances are going to have a bigger impact on your business and decision making, giving you new risks and timetables to manage.
- China is changing its rhetoric to be more reasonable and humble, but it still has a strategy and will execute relentlessly. China wants to be loved – but also to be feared.
- US is shifting views from, “Intolerable China” to “China Competitive Threat”. It’s good news, but some of you will be crushed by ill-conceived, politically motivated regulations and restriction.
- Policy-watching is usually a waste of time and resources, but now you are collecting data-points – not jumping on bandwagons.
What Happened in Globalism 2.0 this week:
- More complex compliance issues, barriers to sales, and constant proxy-rivalries are already starting to crop up – and they WILL disrupt your supply chains and make your business life more difficult.
- Complying, managing, and avoiding new customs and legal rules will be a bigger part of business from now on. This is your life now in G2 – but it’s everyone’s. You’ve got to figure out how to survive and thrive in the new real.
- Successful companies will have multiple backups for every element of their supply chain – and ways of measuring the TRUE costs involved in maintaining a global operation.
- When it comes to near-shoring – get informed, get creative, and get cracking. It’s already late.
Key Links:
A shipment of Uniqlo shirts was seized by US customs after officials suspected they were produced using forced labor in Xinjiang
- https://news.yahoo.com/shipment-uniqlo-shirts-seized-us-050158213.html
Xi says China ready to strengthen coordination with Iran, safeguard common interests
- http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-05/25/c_139967298.htm
What is a Maquiladora?
- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/maquiladora.asp
- It’s time for some of us to start thinking about a Post-China world. If your career or sales or profits were propelled by China’s economic leaps since 2000 (and there are a lot of you) , then this could be a tough adjustment.
- The US government is engineering a "hard de-couple" - where is becomes economically infeasible if not outright illegal for you to conduct certain kinds of business with Chinese entities.
- If China gets admitted to the CPTPP, it sends a disastrous message to US allies about the future of global trade. China is using trade agreements as a force multiplier in its effort to solidify its sphere of influence. (Commercial only. Culturally, it is making little headway).
- The US and it’s Western coalition are rapidly losing influence in SE Asia.
Ep. 19. The Loosening Belt? May 14, 2021.
The Biden Admin picks up a couple of key recruits this weeks as Australia and TSMC/Taiwan both sign on to Team America. This follow on last week's string of good news -- from Europe's pulling away from the big China investment deal, and Japan moving closer to the US on defense. While Biden has been slowly, dully, steadilly building up a coalition in plain sight, no one seems to ask the question -- What does the coalition consider a win? What's the end game?
As the world (and the economy that lives there) becomes more dualistic, any gain for one side is a loss for the other. That may explain why China's week wasn't as great. They've pretty much lost Australia as an ally and the EU as an investment partner. The good news is that Covid diplomacy is working among developing markets. The bad news is that the wolf warriors have done their jobs a little too well. For the first time in a long time, China doesn't seem to have limitless choice of trading counterparty. It has already scared away most of the main players (Japan, Canada, Australia, Vietnam, Malaysia -- all have had bruising encounters with China is the past year).
And finally, HK is seeing a mass outflow of expats. Sure, it may sound hysterical at first -- but the trend is bad and the reasons are worse. AmCham polling says almost half of all expats would leave if they could -- mostly because of the new security laws put into place by Bj. This shouldn't come as a surprise --recall our own informal polling here at Globalism2 showed, HK has totally lost its appeal as an expat or finance center.
Your Business Environment Analysis has to react to growing STATIST influences.
- China and Russia prefer making strategy at senior party level, and having private and SOE players execute.
- The US flips that – overall strategy is usually corporate/financially driven, and legislative agendas (and executive orders) get built around those economics.
- Europe is someplace in the middle.
- Your job is not to change governments or policy-making methods. Your job is to assemble the datapoints you need to make better decisions than your competitors and win in the marketplace.
- Your job is to build bridges between different actors and navigate the shifting landscapes.
- Your job is to be Kazhakstan
Main Links from today's episode:
GM to invest $1 bln in Mexico to build electric vehicles
Move draws immediate criticism from United Auto Workers union
https://www.foxbusiness.com/features/gm-to-invest-1-bln-in-mexico-to-build-electric-vehicles
Foxconn Shrinks Plans for Wisconsin Plant WSJ
https://www.wsj.com/articles/foxconn-shrinks-plans-for-wisconsin-plant-11618959964
EU efforts to ratify China investment deal ‘suspended’ after sanctions
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/04/eu-suspends-ratification-of-china-investment-deal-after-sanctions
What Kazakhstan Can Teach About Medium-State Diplomacy How the self-styled “Asian Geneva” successfully navigated among Russia, China, and the West—at least for now
https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/05/04/what-kazakhstan-can-teach-about-medium-state-diplomacy/
World Factbook (CIA) – Kazakhstan
https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/kazakhstan/
- Tesla has apologized and pledged to carry out "self-examination and self-correction", but Chinese state media has already branded the once-beloved EV maker "arrogant". That is code for "uncooperative foreigner". If a homegrown National Champion brand emerges (we're looking at you, Nio) - then Tesla may find the China market a lot less friendly in the future. Look for more "spontaneous" boycotts, demonstrations, and lawsuits if the Party decides to harmonize Tesla right out of China.
- Your future home in Asia may be Singapore or Taipei according a series of VERY unscientific LinkedIn surveys we've run recently. The big losers? Hong Kong - and No Physical Presence. Remote work in Asia is great for digital nomads and their drop-ship businesses, but senior management types have a higher bar.
- China and Russia may be going over the moon together -- but is this the start of a real alliance? Almost certainly not. In the wake of punishing sanctions, both Xi and Putin have reasons to threaten the US -- but these two countries are not natural allies. Is Putin really going to play second fiddle to Xi? Both countries are notoriously bad neighbors -- and they share a border that is over 4200 kilometers (2,600 miles) long.
- Bottom line -- Your international business is going to get more expensive to build and maintain.
- The more the global economy improves, the worse policy gets - because there is no incentive to compromise. US-China relations are K-Shaped -- business wants increased integration, but nationalist policies are getting more restrictive.
- US business decision-makers are starting to look like the children of a messy divorce – they want Mom & Dad to stay together, but it isn’t gonna happen.
- The search for the "Next China" looks like it’s going to be tough. Singapore and Taipei look like possible management centers, but Westerners are going to have to DIY their new supply chain.
- India – the business community is willing, but bad governance and a resurgent Covid are proving to be insurmountable problems. Digitalization is helping – but its not broad-based.
While AmCham types still hope our trade kerfuffle with China will blow over, pols and party members on both sides have reached agreement on one thing – it’s on.
China is reverting to Cultural Revolution rhetoric: encouraging patriots to report online “wrong thinking”, and urging Wolf Warrior diplomats to “study the history of the Party” to guide them in fighting back.
On the US side, Congress is getting more involved – which is never a good sign.
If you are a front-line manager, your window to implement a Plan B is being constrained by China’s successful spread of influence and soft power. Today we’re looking at the battle for hearts and minds in the Caribbean.
- A constructive, pragmatic trade relationship that benefits both sides is clearly a good idea – but is it realistic? PRC propaganda is taking on the role of permanent disruptor, while the Western side seems to be juggling a variety of positions
- If you are still waiting for the US-China trade dispute to just blow over and go away, that seems increasingly risky.
- US & Euro managers and negotiators have to face facts: the US China trade conflict will be with us for a while, and those tariffs are probably going to be around at least until the end of the year.
- US pundits are pointing out the irresponsible costs of decoupling and calling for cooler heads, but Chinese writers are going to a hardline Cultural Revolutionary footing (PRC diplomat called Justin Trudeau a “running dog of US”).
- The next big milestone is set for early June, when Biden’s “supply chain reviews” are due – but there’s no indication if the results will be helpful or harmful to US-China relations.
- Americans sourcing from China need to develop and execute a Plan B. Marketers had best have a plan for going “all in” on their China message.
- Have the Beijing Warrior Wolves handed Biden the golden key to world leadership… and to Cultural Icon status.?
- Europe was a reluctant partner – AT BEST – until the PRC Wolfpack herded the EU onto the Biden Bus – non-stop service to DeCouple City.
- There’ll be lots of excitement ahead – but if you are still “coupled up” you could be engaging in risky business.
- If you are American or an MNC Brand – you have to reevaluate your notion of “market forces”. Market forces used to be your friend. Not necessarily true anymore.
- Covid19 was an accelerant of economic and social trends – which were already starting to work against western brands and incumbents.
- While much of the world might wish for a Multi-Polar future, at the moment it is very much a US-China battle.
- Big Theme of G2: US doesn’t always set the agenda anymore.
Decoupling your supply chain from China may not be voluntary - and it may not be initiated by the US side. The China+1 strategy seems manageable right now, but front-line managers and negotiators need a plan for a “hard decouple”. Both marketers and manufacturers should prepare for permanent shifts in their supply chains and distribution networks – not just short term disruptions. The same thing that is happening in the Chinese lux market will soon be playing out in other emerging middle class markets throughout the world. As consumption patterns diverge, Western brands will not only lose customers – but their economies of scale that drove prices to the floor will lose their power.
You just heard news that may have a huge impact on your business. Should you ignore it, take a cautious wait & see approach, or make the most of this opportunity? In the new world of Globalism 2.0, you need a plan for dealing with "high impact / low probability" events -- because those are the ones that can really ruin your day.
In this episode we introduce some basic business analysis tools that will help front-line decision makers organize their planning. But the real challenge is knowing when to take action, and when to wait for more information.
The US and its coalition of western liberal capitalist democracies "won" Globalism 1.0. By 2008, communism was in ashes, large swathes of former "emerging economies" had become devoted consumer markets, and orderly international trade was the rule - not the exception.
Since then, however, the West seems to have lost the trail while China and select emerging markets are powering ahead.
What happened? Nationalism in the US and China, and Covid 19 created a perfect storm of disruption and dislocation. Analyzing the impact of Globalism 2.0 requires us to examine the drivers on a micro level and determine which forces were dominant - and where they are pushing us. Is the new economy being shaped by
- Ideology
- Virus
- Economic trends?
US-China decoupling is likely is some way, shape, or form. There are 3 tracks towards full decoupling:
1. Supply Chain of Materials and Manufacturing (already begun)
2. Supply Chain of Markets, People, and Services (underway)
3. Standards, Specifications, and Compliance alignment (not yet)
Globalism 2.o So it leads to this... Growing middle classes in emerged markets, technology, and new economic competition are just some of the forces realigning global trade into distinct spheres of influence. The manufacturing supply chain will stay intact for a while (planes & ports; mines & factories), but markets and the service supply chain (people) will localize and coalesce into exclusive economic spheres.
The line between government and corporate is blurring out of existence. Whether it's Communist Party officials setting global technical standards or the US Federal Gov building a refining industry, the new reality is that there you'll be spending MORE time with compliance, regulations, and bureaucracy in the near future -- not less. And for those of you setting up new supply chains as you decouple, it may be a lot of work. Plan accordingly.
TechWar is the competition between states using Intellectual Property, access to products and technology, access to markets, and influence over technical standards and specifications. It's not all space lasers and 6G technology -- the most heated battles will be over who controls the technical standards for thousands of routine products, services, and technologies.
Permanent institutions like WTO and the EU are SOOO last century. Fast & flexible FTA's like CPTPP and RCEP are hot right now. The shift towards flexible FTAs means trade restrictions will fall and cross-border deals will be cheaper -- WHEN THINGS ARE GOING WELL. These deals don't always have the enforcement or dispute resolution mechanisms that the WTO does -- and they are much easier to walk away from than the EU.
The US is not leaving the global stage, but in the future we will share the spotlight with other actors – ranging from big stars like China to regional blocs such as ASEAN & even corporate guest appearances like TESLA & Facebook.
One reason leading Western economies are struggling to compete in Globalism 2.0 is that we did such a great job winning Globalism Classic's battle against communism. We won -- but had no plan for what followed.
Rules and Tools for international managers and negotiators on the front lines.
- US leadership continues to fade
- A few powerful spheres of influence
- Global institutions give way to a network of trade agreements.
- Technology will be increasingly politicized
- Line between government and corporation blurs away