Alpha Bets: Recent Episodes
SportfolioKings
Alpha Bets is a markets and trading focused sports betting podcast hosted by @deepvaluebettor and @throwthedamball, fueled by data-driven insights from the SportfolioKings Terminal.
Our team brings a Wall Street lens to NFL sports betting, using alternative data analytics, market sentiment, and A.I. to generate actionable trading ideas for in-game betting and Circa Millions contest strategies. Our bespoke approach blends the advantages of fundamental analysis, data science, and modern portfolio theory to identify actionable opportunities to capture alpha across sports markets.
'Bet like a Wall Street trader' with our Sportfolio Terminal dashboards and proprietary research at www.sportfoliokings.com.
Brett (@deepvaluebettor), Zach (@contextcapper), and Judah (@throwthedamball) search for alpha and investigate exploitable angles across their favorite games on the NFL Week 5 slate, with a focus on the Circa Million contest.
Brett (@deepvaluebettor), Zach (@contextcapper), and Judah (@throwthedamball) search for alpha and investigate exploitable angles across their favorite games on the NFL Week 4 slate, with a focus on the Circa Million contest.
This episode is snipped from our GameTRADE live betting stream on Thursday Night Football, so the audio is less polished and there are several sounds of New York City in the background due to window being open (grrr)
Brett (@deepvaluebettor) and Judah (@throwthedamball) recap NFL Week 2 live betting performance, evaluate their machine learning-enabled Drive Quality model scoreboard, assess changes to industry analyst consensus market power rankings, and investigate angles across their favorite games on the NFL Week 3 slate.
Brett (@deepvaluebettor), Judah (@throwthedamball), and guest Eric Eager from Sumer Sports (@ericeager_) evaluate the Chiefs, Broncos, Chargers, and Raiders betting prospects in 2023 from a markets and analytics perspective, and offer their favorite high-octane "alpha bets" for the division.
Eric's heart wants to see upside in the Broncos, but his model is more ambivalent, leading him to take the Raiders alt over 7.5 wins at +195. The boys discuss how the Raiders may have performed better than their record indicated last year, and why the betting market's disrespect of Jimmy G may offer some value.
Judah doesn't see Russell Wilson rujenating his career, even with Sean Payton, particularly because the Saints/Brees scheme of highly accurate, middle-of-the-field passes with YAC receivers doesn't neatly fit Wilson and this offense's current core skillsets. He likes betting Broncos last in division at +250.
Brett doesn't want to outright fade a powerhouse like the Chiefs with elite coaching and a superstar QB that elevates all those around him, but also thinks the price for the Chiefs alt over 12.5 wins is overly optimistic and underappreciates the natural volatility of an NFL season (+ the Chiefs unusually strong injury luck the last 3 seasons). He likes under 12.5 wins at -155.
Check out more of our research at www.sportfoliokings.com.
Brett (@deepvaluebettor), Judah (@throwthedamball), and guest Andy Molitor from Betsperts and the Deep Dive Podcast (@andymsfw) pick apart the Bengals, Browns, Ravens, and Steelers betting prospects in 2023 from a markets and analytics perspective, and offer their favorite high-octane "alpha bets" for the division.
0:00 - Intro
1:34 - Alpha bets
6:57 - Steelers
22:06 - Browns
39:39 - Ravens
48:50 - Bengals
54:06 - Live betting discussion
Check out more of our research at www.sportfoliokings.com.
Brett (@deepvaluebettor), Judah (@throwthedamball), and guest Ben Brown from PFF (@pff_benbrown) slice and dice the Bears, Packers, Vikings, and Lions betting prospects in 2023 from a markets and analytics perspective, and offer their favorite high-octane "alpha bets" for the division.
The Chicago Bears right tail outcomes look fat and if it all comes together (asking a lot) this team could be the Lions of 2022 (but so much relies on Justin Fields development as a passer, and the arrival of DJ Moore helps...but isn't going to unilaterily elevate Fields).
The Green Bay Packers have been a bottom 5 offensive pace team with Aaron Rodgers - now with an inexperienced QB, inexperienced WRs, and a rookie TE, least scored points +1100 looks attractive.
The Minnesota Vikings and Kirk Cousins are models of consistency, and in a division ripe with uncertainty + the addition of Brian Flores to improave a dreadful defense, +300 division winners is juicy.
Goff had a ceiling year in 2022, and expecting that performance again is a vulnerability (unless Ben Johnson truly is the next offensive genius). But the Lions won't be sneaking up on anyone this year and expectations are sky high. This makes the Lions fragile and under 9.5 wins +100 is Brett's division alpha bet.
Check out more of our research at www.sportfoliokings.com.
Brett (@deepvaluebettor), Judah (@throwthedamball), and guest Seth (@bullytheboard) evaluate the Jaguars, Colts, Texans, and Titans betting prospects in 2023 from a markets and analytics perspective, and offer their favorite high-octane "alpha bets" for the division.
Check us out at www.sportfoliokings.com.
Brett (@deepvaluebettor), Judah (@throwthedamball), and Steven (@pattonanalytics) evaluate the Saints, Falcons, Panthers, and Bucs betting prospects in 2023.
Drawing on their expertise in both traditional Wall Street strategies and building innovative sports betting models, the trio offers a fresh and comprehensive recap of each team's 2022 performance using advanced analytics to cut through the noise, showcasing the impressive forecasting ability of their flagship Drive Quality model to reprice teams more quickly than broader market adjustments. Brett, Judah, and Steven then take a quantitative deep-dive into the 2023 season, evaluating betting opportunities and isolating futures trades they think offer the most alpha potential. We're just warming up, Kings. It's gonna be an exciting season!
Learn more about us at www.sportfoliokings.com.
Brett, Judah, and Zach discuss, debate, and strategize how to attack the big game from both a pregame and live betting perspective. #SGP #livebetting #draftkings #parlays
0:00 - Intro 0:36 - Evolution of futures market prices for Eagles and Chiefs 1:23 - US market betting preferences 1:47 - Sharp and pro money bettor positioning 2:42 - Zach's opening thoughts 3:07 - Judah's opening thoughts 4:43 - Chiefs in-season struggles 8:29 - Eagles potential weaknesses 13:14 - Potential game scripts for Eagles, Chiefs, and game total 19:23 - Trigger points for live betting purposes 29:14 - Tail outcome scenarios for same game parlays 31:30 - Coaching advantages 34:51 - Closing comments and key betting takeaways
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Brett and Judah review playoff scenarios heading into Week 18, evaluate their machine learning-enabled Drive Quality model scoreboard, assess changes to industry analyst consensus market power rankings, and investigate angles across every game on the slate: isolating opportunities to lean into alt lines, take advantage of potential live betting mispricings, and how to position for the Circa Millions contest. #nflanalytics #nflbetting #livebetting #trading #sportfolio
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Follow Not Your Daddy's Sports Betting on Twitter ➝ https://twitter.com/notyourdaddys_
Not Your Daddy's Sports Betting Podcast is fueled by SportfolioKings, a next-gen sports betting research platform fueled by advanced data analytics and Wall Street-style trading strategies. We blend the advantages of fundamental analysis, data science, and market- and sentiment-oriented research to identify actionable alpha opportunities in sports markets.
Join us at www.sportfoliokings.com.
Brett and Judah recap NFL Week 14 live betting performance, evaluate their machine learning-enabled Drive Quality model scoreboard, assess changes to industry analyst consensus market power rankings, and investigate angles across every game on the NFL Week 15 slate: isolating opportunities to lean into alt lines, take advantage of potential live betting mispricings, and how to position for the Circa Millions contest. #nflanalytics #nflbetting #livebetting #trading #sportfolio
Follow SportfolioKings on Twitter ➝ https://twitter.com/sportfoliokings
Follow Brett on Twitter ➝ https://twitter.com/deepvaluebettor
Follow Judah on Twitter ➝ https://twitter.com/throwthedamball
Follow Not Your Daddy's Sports Betting on Twitter ➝ https://twitter.com/notyourdaddys_
Not Your Daddy's Sports Betting Podcast is fueled by SportfolioKings, a next-gen sports betting research platform fueled by advanced data analytics and Wall Street-style trading strategies. We blend the advantages of fundamental analysis, data science, and market- and sentiment-oriented research to identify actionable alpha opportunities in sports markets.
Join us at www.sportfoliokings.com.
The New York Jets moved the move impressively vs the Vikings, but struggled to cash TDs. The Jets have been betting darlings, but a single week of mild underperformance has the team mispriced vs an increasingly vulnerable Bills team with visible cracks forming. We'll be betting the Jets heavy and looking for live opportunities to add exposure at better prices. Brett and Judah discuss their gameplan for this matchup and recap NFL Week 13 live betting performance, evaluate their machine learning-enabled Drive Quality model scoreboard, assess changes to industry analyst consensus market power rankings, and investigate angles across every game on the NFL Week 14 slate: isolating opportunities to lean into alt lines, take advantage of potential live betting mispricings, and how to position for the Circa Millions contest. #nflanalytics #nflbetting #livebetting #trading #sportfolio
Matchup Chapters: 0:00 - Intro 1:32 - Butthurt moments and our beef with certain betting groups 6:10 - Live betting performance recap 16:41 - Review Week 13 Drive Quality model scoreboard 20:23 - Week 14 industry analyst market power rankings 34:10 - Raiders v Rams 37:45 - Jets v Bills 39:40 - Browns v Bengals 41:27 - Texans v Cowboys 42:25 - Vikings v Lions 44:17 - Ravens v Steelers 46:12 - Chiefs v Broncos 47:58 - Panthers v Seahawks 50:23 - Bucs v 49ers 52:48 - Dolphins v Chargers 54:19 - Patriots v Cardinals 56:05 - Closing Bell
Chiefs, Bengals, Dolphins, oh my! The late afternoon NFL slate is ripe for elite football, volatility, and juicy mispriced live spreads. Brett and Judah discuss their gameplan for this and recap NFL Week 12 performance, evaluate their machine learning-enabled Drive Quality model scoreboard, assess changes to industry analyst consensus market power rankings, and investigate angles across every game on the NFL Week 13 slate: isolating opportunities to lean into alt lines, take advantage of potential live betting mispricings, and how to position for the Circa Millions contest.
Chiefs, Bengals, Dolphins, oh my! The late afternoon NFL slate is ripe for elite football, volatility, and juicy mispriced live spreads. Brett and Judah discuss their gameplan for this and recap NFL Week 12 performance, evaluate their machine learning-enabled Drive Quality model scoreboard, assess changes to industry analyst consensus market power rankings, and investigate angles across every game on the NFL Week 13 slate: isolating opportunities to lean into alt lines, take advantage of potential live betting mispricings, and how to position for the Circa Millions contest.0:00 - Intro0:17 - Live betting butthurt moments4:06 - Live betting mega wins5:38 - Review Week 12 Drive Quality model scoreboard11:56 - Week 13 industry analyst market power rankings26:35 - Bills v Patriots29:07 - Jets v Vikings27:34 - Patriots v Vikings33:11 - Broncos v Ravens36:00 - Commies v Giants38:18 - Titans v Eagles41:09 - Jaguars v Lions45:17 - Steelers v Falcons47:23 - Packers v Bears49:05 - Dolphins v 49ers53:48 - Seahawks v Rams55:33 - Chiefs v Bengals56:03 - Chargers v Raiders58:06 - Cowboys v Colts1:00:13 - Saints v BucsFollow SportfolioKings on Twitter ➝ https://twitter.com/sportfoliokings
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A trifecta of mediocre games only a bettor could love on Thanksgiving Day! Yippie! The Cowboys D may turn Danny Dimes into mashed potatoes, but a deficit-enabled game script could make his pass (and potentially run(ning for his life)) props an over gravy train. Brett and Judah discuss this and recap NFL Week 11 performance, evaluate their machine learning-enabled Drive Quality model scoreboard, assess changes to industry analyst consensus market power rankings, and investigate angles across every game on the NFL Week 12 slate: isolating opportunities to lean into alt lines, take advantage of potential live betting mispricings, and how to position for the Circa Millions contest.
Matchup Chapters: 0:00 - Intro, 0:24 - Review Week 11 Drive Quality model scoreboard, 6:28 - Week 12 industry analyst market power rankings, 16:29 - Bills v Lions, 21:48 - Giants v Cowboys, 27:34 - Patriots v Vikings, 30:25 - Texans v Dolphins, 32:22 - Bears v Jets, 36:02 - Ravens v Jaguars, 40:17 - Bengals v Titans, 45:34 - Falcons v Commanders, 46:11 - Broncos v Panthers, 48:50 - Bucs v Browns, 51:51 - Raiders v Seahawks, 53:08 - Chargers v Cardinals, 56:41 - Rams v Chiefs, 57:59 - Saints v Niners, 59:59 - Packers v Eagles, 1:02:10 - Steelers/Colts
Follow SportfolioKings on Twitter ➝ https://twitter.com/sportfoliokings
Follow Brett on Twitter ➝ https://twitter.com/deepvaluebettor
Follow Judah on Twitter ➝ https://twitter.com/throwthedamball
Follow Not Your Daddy's Sports Betting on Twitter ➝ https://t
The Chicago Bears have ranked top 5 in our offensive Drive Quality metric since the team's "mini-bye" following the Washington heartbreaking loss in Chicago a fews ago. Is this a sustainable phenomenon? Brett and Judah discuss this and recap NFL Week 10 performance, evaluate their machine learning-enabled Drive Quality model scoreboard, assess changes to industry analyst consensus market power rankings, and investigate angles across every game on the NFL Week 11 slate: isolating opportunities to lean into alt lines, take advantage of potential live betting mispricings, and how to position for the Circa Millions contest.
Matchup Chapters: 0:00 - Intro 1:41 - Week 10 Drive Quality model surprises 8:12 - Week 11 consensus market power rankings review 16:23 - Browns/Bills 18:29 - Eagles/Colts 21:06 - Jets/Patriots 23:27 - Lions/Giants 24:36 - Panthers/Ravens 25:48 - Commies/Texans 26:48 - Bears/Falcons 30:48 - Rams/Saints 31:51 - Raiders/Broncos 32:40
Brett, Judah, and special guest caleb (@calebbets3) recap NFL Week 9 performance, evaluate their machine learning-enabled Drive Quality model scoreboard, assess changes to consensus market power rankings, and investigate angles across every game on the NFL Week 10 slate: isolating opportunities to lean into alt lines, take advantage of potential live betting mispricings, and how to position for the Circa Millions contest.
Matchup Chapters: 0:00 - Intro | 0:47 - Week 9 Drive Quality model surprises | 8:24 - Week 10 consensus market power rankings review | 21:17 - Falcons/Panthers | 24:03 - Seahawks/Bucs | 30:12 - Vikings/Bills | 31:58 - Texans/Giants | 33:23 - Jags/Chiefs | 36:22 - Browns/Dolphins | 38:55 - Broncos/Titans | 41:50 - Lions/Bears | 44:31 - Saints/Steelers | 46:36 - Colts/Raiders |
Brett and Judah recap NFL Week 8 performance, evaluate their machine learning-enabled Drive Quality model scoreboard, assess changes to consensus market power rankings, and investigate angles across every game on the NFL Week 9 slate: isolating opportunities to lean into alt lines, take advantage of potential live betting mispricings, and how to position for the Circa Millions contest.
Matchup Chapters: 0:00 - Intro 0:45 - Week 8 Drive Quality model scoreboard 5:54 - Changes to industry analyst market consensus rankings 16:20 - Eagles/Texans 19:53 - Colts/Pats 21:16 - Chargers/Falcons 25:55 - Dolphins/Bears 29:35 - Vikings/Commies 31:01 - Panthers/Bengals 34:03 - Bills/Jets 36:30 - Packers/Lions 39:44 - Raiders/Jags 41:19 - Seahawks/Cardinals 42:53 - Rams/Bucs
Brett and Judah recap NFL Week 7 performance, evaluate their machine learning-enabled Drive Quality model scoreboard, assess changes to consensus market power rankings, and investigate angles across every game on the NFL Week 8 slate: isolating opportunities to lean into alt lines, take advantage of potential live betting mispricings, and how to position for the Circa Millions contest.
Matchup Chapters: 0:07 - Intro | 0:35 Recap Week 7 betting performance and key takeaways | 4:20 - Week 7 Drive Quality model scoreboard | 9:58 - Changes to market consensus rankings after Week 5 | 26:40 - Ravens/Bucs | 35:12 - Broncos/Jaguars | 37:50 - Patriots/Jets | 42:19 - Steelers/Eagles | 47:50 - Cardinals/Vikings | 53:59 - Bears/Cowboys | 57:31 - Raiders/Saints | 58:59 - Panthers/Falcons | 1:01:33 - Titans/Texans | 1:03:18 - Giants/Seahawks | 1:04:34 - Commanders/Colts | 1:05:53 - Niners/Rams | 1:08:05 - Packers/Bills | 1:10:04 - Bengals/Browns | 1:13:53 - Closing bell, preliminary Circa Millions bets
Follow betting strategists @deepvaluebettor and @throwthedamball on Twitter for more insights throughout the 2022 NFL season.
Not Your Daddy's Sports Betting podcast is fueled by SportfolioKings, a next-gen sports betting research platform fueled by advanced data analytics and Wall Street-style trading strategies. We blend the advantages of fundamental analysis, data science, and market- and sentiment-oriented research to identify actionable alpha opportunities in sports markets.
Join us at www.sportfoliokings.com.
Brett and Judah recap NFL Week 6 performance, evaluate interesting game-outcome discrepancies in their Drive Quality scoreboard, assess changes to consensus market power rankings, and investigate angles across every game on the NFL Week 7 slate: isolating opportunities to lean into alt lines, take advantage of potential live betting mispricings, and how to position for the Circa Millions contest.
Matchup Chapters: 0:07 - Intro, 2:56 - Changes to market consensus rankings after Week 6, 13:55 - Drive Quality model alternative scoreboard for Week 6, 15:33 - Cardinals/Saints, 19:00 - Packers/Commanders, 23:15 - Giants/Jaguars, 26:58 - Bucs/Panthers, 29:13 - Lions/Cowboys, 32:05 - Falcons/Bengals, 35:03- Browns/Ravens, 36:58 - Colts/Titans, 38:14 - Jets/Broncos, 40:51 - Texans/Raiders, 42:03 - Chiefs/49ers, 46:02 - Seahawks/Chargers, 48:11 - Steelers/Dolphins, 50:30 - Bears/Patriots
Follow betting strategists @deepvaluebettor and @throwthedamball on Twitter for more insights throughout the 2022 NFL season.
Not Your Daddy's Sports Betting podcast is fueled by SportfolioKings, a next-gen sports betting research platform fueled by advanced data analytics and Wall Street-style trading strategies. We blend the advantages of fundamental analysis, data science, and market- and sentiment-oriented research to identify actionable alpha opportunities in sports markets.
Join us at www.sportfoliokings.com.
Brett, Judah, and Arjun (@arjunmenon100) recap NFL Week 5 performance, evaluate interesting game-outcome discrepancies in their Drive Quality scoreboard, assess changes to consensus market power rankings, and investigate angles across every game on the NFL Week 6 slate: isolating opportunities to lean into alt lines, take advantage of potential live betting mispricings, and how to position for the Circa Millions contest.Follow betting strategists @deepvaluebettor, @throwthedamball, and @arjunmenon100 on Twitter for more insights throughout the 2022 NFL season.
Matchup Chapters: 0:07 - Intro | 1:03 - Recap Week 5 betting performance and key takeaways | 5:35 - Changes to market consensus rankings after Week 5 | 13:08 - Commanders/Bears | 15:33 - Bucs/Steelers | 17:19 - 49ers/Falcons | 20:30 - Jets/Packers | 26:57 - Ravens/Giants 30:32 - | Vikings/Dolphins 32:38 - Bengals/Saints 37:59 - Patriots/Browns | 43:23 - Jaguars/Colts | 44:23 - Panthers/Rams | 47:32 - Bills/Chiefs | 52:13 - Cowboys/Eagles | 54:27 - Broncos/Chargers
Not Your Daddy's Sports Betting podcast is fueled by SportfolioKings, a next-gen sports betting research platform fueled by advanced data analytics and Wall Street-style trading strategies. We blend the advantages of fundamental analysis, data science, and market- and sentiment-oriented research to identify actionable alpha opportunities in sports markets.
Join us at www.sportfoliokings.com.
Brett and special guest Corey (@clars24) offer their fresh, emotional takes on what just transpired in a very difficult NFL Week 5, recap sportfolio performance and live betting results, and walk through the initial betting slate for NFL Week 6.
Our core Circa Millions contest selections went a woeful 1-3-1, allocating exposure to Bills, Jaguars, Lions, Chargers, and Bucs. We are now 14-10-1 on the season (58%) and fall to 1205th place. Our live betting GameTRADE stream on Twitch yielded a net -6 units, bringing season-to-date to +11 units, with mostly Lions derivative bets weighing on total return. Come live bet and trade games with us every Sunday afternoon: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/1619686497
Brett and Judah recap NFL Week 4 performance, evaluate their proprietary Drive Quality scoreboard, and investigate angles across every game on the NFL Week 5 slate, isolating opportunities to lean into alt lines, take advantage of potential live betting mispricings, and how to position for the Circa Millions contest.
Follow betting strategists @deepvaluebettor, @throwthedamball, and @contextcapper on Twitter for more insights and ramblings throughout the 2022 NFL season.
Not Your Daddy's Sports Betting podcast is fueled by SportfolioKings, a next-gen sports betting research platform fueled by advanced data analytics and Wall Street-style trading strategies. We blend the advantages of fundamental analysis, data science, and market- and sentiment-oriented research to identify actionable alpha opportunities in sports markets.
Join us at www.sportfoliokings.com.
Brett and Judah conduct a deep dive review of every game on the NFL Week 4 slate, isolating opportunities to lean into alt lines, take advantage of potential live betting mispricings, and how to position for the Circa Millions contests. We're selling Eagles hype vs a still underappreciated Jaguars defense, riding Browns rushing prowess vs an extremely vulnerable Falcons run defense, buying the dip on Chiefs after two lackluster performances vs a Bucs team still benefiting from yester years' successes, and leaning into Jets variance with the return of Zach Wilson vs an equally bad Steelers team in Mitch Trubisky's last game as a starter.
Matchup Chapters: 0:06 - Intro, 0:40 - Recap Week 3 betting and Circa performance, 12:19 - Changes to market consensus rankings, 20:04 - Dolphins/Bengals, 22:29 - Vikings/Saints in London, 23:43 - Titans/Colts, 25:56 - Bills/Ravens, 27:50, - Chargers/Texans, 30:28 - Seahawks/Lions, 31:36 - Jets/Steelers, 33:08 - Jaguars/Eagles 36:59, - Commanders/Cowboys, 38:32 - Browns/Falcons, 40:33 - Cardinals/Panthers, 42:20 - Broncos/Raiders, 44:33 - Patriots/Packers, 47:09 - Chiefs/Bucs, 50:12 - Rams/Niners
Brett and Judah conduct a deep dive review of every game on the NFL Week 3 slate, isolating opportunities to lean into alt lines, take advantage of potential live betting mispricings, and how to position for the Circa Millions contests.
Matchup Chapters: 0:11 - Steelers/Browns 4:52 - Ravens/Patriots 8:48 - Bills/Dolphins 11:30 - Bengals/Jets 15:36 - Saints/Panthers 16:54 - Lions/Vikings 19:38 - Chiefs/Colts 26:28 - Raiders/Titans 30:27 - Eagles/Commanders 31:37 - Texans/Bears 33:28 - Jaguars/Chargers 36:51 - Packers/Bucs 39:57 - Falcons/Seahawks 41:40 - Rams/Cardinals 43:24 - 49ers/Broncos 46:41 - Cowboys/Giants 49:07 - MNP SGP 50:28 - Preliminary top 5 Circa leans
Brett and Judah offer their fresh, emotional takes on what just happened in NFL Week 2, recap sportfolio performance and live betting results, and walk through the initial betting slate for NFL Week 3.
Our core Circa Millions contest selections went 2-2, allocating exposure to Bills (pending), Jaguars, Commanders, Bengals, and Patriots.
Our live betting stream on Twitch yielded a net -2 units, bringing season-to-date to +7 units.
Follow betting strategists @deepvaluebettor, @throwthedamball, and @contextcapper on Twitter for more insights and ramblings throughout the 2022 NFL season.
Not Your Daddy's Sports Betting podcast is fueled by SportfolioKings, a next-gen sports betting research platform fueled by advanced data analytics and Wall Street-style trading strategies. We blend the advantages of fundamental analysis, data science, and market- and sentiment-oriented research to identify actionable alpha opportunities in sports markets.
Join us at www.sportfoliokings.com.
Brett and Judah assess the NFL Week 2 landscape, isolating opportunities to lean into alt lines, take advantage of potential live betting mispricings, and how to position for the Circa Millions and Survivor contests. The market may have sold off on Mac Jones and co. a bit more than is justified, so will bet Patriots and look to lean into further live if can get over +4. Lions steam has pushed them into favorite territory and the market is pricing the WFT has a bottom 5 team; we'll gladly fade these phenomena. We liked what we saw from the Jaguars in Week 1, and expect them to follow through with another strong performance vs. a vulnerable Colts team in Jacksonville.
Hear about this and more from betting strategists @deepvaluebettor, @throwthedamball, and @contextcapper on the 2022 NFL betting market outlook for Week 2.
Not Your Daddy's Sports Betting podcast is fueled by SportfolioKings, a next-gen sports betting research platform fueled by advanced data analytics and Wall Street-style trading strategies. We blend the advantages of fundamental analysis, data science, and market- and sentiment-oriented research to identify actionable alpha opportunities in sports markets.
Join us at www.sportfoliokings.com.
Brett and Judah offer their fresh, emotional takes on what just happened in NFL Week 1, recap sportfolio performance and live betting results, and walk through the initial betting slate for NFL Week 2. (apologies for lower quality audio as we are on vacation and away from our typical trading rigs)
Our core Circa Millions contest selections went collectively 6-1, allocating exposure to Chargers, Giants, Texans, Bears, Commanders, Chiefs, and Eagles.
Our live betting stream on Twitch yielded a net +9 units.
Follow betting strategists @deepvaluebettor, @throwthedamball, and @contextcapper on Twitter for more insights and ramblings throughout the 2022 NFL season.
Not Your Daddy's Sports Betting podcast is fueled by SportfolioKings, a next-gen sports betting research platform fueled by advanced data analytics and Wall Street-style trading strategies. We blend the advantages of fundamental analysis, data science, and market- and sentiment-oriented research to identify actionable alpha opportunities in sports markets.
Join us at www.sportfoliokings.com.
Brett, Judah, and Zach pontificate on NFL Week 1, isolating opportunities to lean into alt lines, take advantage of potential live betting mispricings, and how to position for the Circa Millions and Survivor contests. A lot of disagreement, but are generally cautious on Rams, see Giants upside v. Titans, betting on Texans to surprise v. Colts, expect Chargers to exploit the Raiders, and are fading Jags and Lions steam. Ravens will likely be the core allocation for survivor strategies, but Joe Flacco is a notable wrinkle that makes Brett and Zach a bit nervous.
Hear about this and more from betting strategists @deepvaluebettor, @throwthedamball, and @contextcapper on the 2022 NFL betting market outlook for Week 1.
Not Your Daddy's Sports Betting podcast is fueled by SportfolioKings, a next-gen sports betting research platform fueled by advanced data analytics and Wall Street-style trading strategies. We blend the advantages of fundamental analysis, data science, and market- and sentiment-oriented research to identify actionable alpha opportunities in sports markets.
Join us at www.sportfoliokings.com.
Highest conviction trade idea ✍️: Raiders under 8.5 wins and alt under 7.5 wins at +210.
The AFC West has four playoff contenders and everyone got better, except for the Chiefs. Are they still the crown jewel of the best division in football? The Broncos haven't made the playoffs in six years - the second longest drought in the league. Is Russell Wilson the missing piece, or is the near 34 year old washed? The the Chargers are leaning into the variance game and built a roster that is stacked, but we've seen all-star rosters constructed before the end on a wimper - is it all sizzle and no steak? The Raiders experienced some of the most turnover in the league, have a new coaching staff, play a top 5 most difficult schedule, and were the beneficiaries of an incredible luck in 2021 - odds suggest the team is egregiously mispriced.
Hear about this and more from betting strategists @deepvaluebettor, @throwthedamball, and @drivs228 on the 2022 NFL betting market outlook for the AFC West.
Not Your Daddy's Sports Betting podcast is fueled by SportfolioKings, a next-gen sports betting research platform fueled by advanced data analytics and Wall Street-style trading strategies. We blend the advantages of fundamental analysis, data science, and market- and sentiment-oriented research to identify actionable alpha opportunities in sports markets.
Join us at www.sportfoliokings.com.
Highest conviction trade idea ✍️: Steelers under 7.5 wins, Browns alt uner 7 wins +195 and to win Super Bowl +5000. Steelers defense is likely a sham, overly reliant on TJ Watt, and will be exposed as not only a strength but perhaps a weakness in 2022. The market is lukewarm on the Bengals despite winning the AFC and being a late TD away from being Super Bowl champions. Joe Burrow was sacked an egregious 70 times last season, but the Bengals brass made a vigilant effort to enhance the weakest part of the team: the OL. Now the unit may be a top 10 unit. Can this explosive offense recapture the AFC crown in a crowded field? The Browns are all in on Deshaun Watson, leveraging their future, their brand, the stability of their organization. All on a disgraced wildcard. Can Jacoby Brissett and an elite offensive line, keep the Browns competitive through the first 11 games of the season? The Ravens were 5-1 to start the season. In position for the number one seed in the AFC in early December, before unraveling and losing six straight games to close the season. Is a healthier Ravens team capable of going on a revenge tour in 2022? We'll discuss all of this and more on this episode of betting market outlook for the AFC North.
Spoiler: our favorite division bets are Rams under 10 wins and Seahawks fewest points scored (+750). Stafford and Co. enter 2022 as Super Bowl champs and with another set of lofty expectations - but remain in arguably the best division in the NFC, if not the NFL. We are selling the hype - expecting a tough division to drive wild volatility and a lack of depth, a reversal of positive injury luck, and a significant loss of coaching talent to stifle the team on their path to the targeted 10 wins (current market win total expectations). The Niners and Cardinals both have high ceilings but low floors (emblematic of the division volatility writ large), and the market is torn in both directions. However, the Niners are priced at 10 wins and the Cardinals are priced at 8.5 wins. Maybe Kyle Shanahan's wizardry can take advantage of the relatively easy schedule (projected 13th easiest) and propel this team to division champs, but will come down to how aggressive the team plans to be with Trey Lance - who is still very much a work in progress. The Seahawks' loss of Russ Wilson will likely expose Pete Carroll as the worst head coach in league, as he is now unshackled from the pressures of 'letting Russ cook' and can now forces his conservative playcalling down the throats of a talentless team with a bottom-5 offensive line and no visible on-the-field leader. Under 6 wins looks very attractive.
Hear about this and more from betting strategists @deepvaluebettor, @throwthedamball, and @yanni_bet on the 2022 NFL betting market outlook for the NFC West.
Not Your Daddy's Sports Betting podcast is fueled by SportfolioKings, a next-gen sports betting research platform fueled by advanced data analytics and Wall Street-style trading strategies. We blend the advantages of fundamental analysis, data science, and market- and sentiment-oriented research to identify actionable alpha opportunities in sports markets.
Join us at www.sportfoliokings.com.
Spoiler: our favorite division bets are Patriots under 8.5 wins and Dolphins alt under 8 wins. Tua Tagovailoa has upside if a 49ers-esque short-pass/quick-slant/RPO and YAC-oriented offense is successfully implemented, leveraging the immense speed of their enhanced WR corps - but a lot can also go wrong and market expectations are already elevated, making the bar for success from a betting perspective unduly high. The Patriots loss talent and simply got worse across almost every category imaginable, yet market expectations haven't adjusted enough to the downside - likely due to the mystique of Bill Belichick (which has certainly been earned). The Jets will likely remain the dumpster divers of the division, but should show improvement with a young, speedy, and talented set of pass catchers and a steadily strengthening defense. The Bills remain the cream of the crop, may have been the best team last year, and only got better in the offseason (ex the loss of OC Brian Daboll). It's Super Bowl or bust for this mighty offense.
Hear about this and more from betting strategists @deepvaluebettor, and @throwthedamball on the 2022 NFL betting market outlook for the AFC East.
Not Your Daddy's Sports Betting podcast is fueled by SportfolioKings, a next-gen sports betting research platform fueled by advanced data analytics and Wall Street-style trading strategies. We blend the advantages of fundamental analysis, data science, and market- and sentiment-oriented research to identify actionable alpha opportunities in sports markets.
Join us at www.sportfoliokings.com.
Spoiler: our favorite division bets are Titans alt under 8 wins and Jaguars over 6.5 wins. Trevor Lawrence has the pedigree and potential to be an elite QB, but a resurgent Jaguars defense may be the catalyst for a surprise division title. The Colts rented another aging QB in Matt Ryan and have a crumbling OL, but bettors continue to overestimate their talent. The Titans lost their star WR AJ Brown, it's uncertain if King Henry can return to form, and their OL has been severely downgraded; difficult to depend on their defense to save them in back-to-back seasons. Hear about this and more from betting strategists @deepvaluebettor, @throwthedamball, and @ferd_turgeson on the 2022 NFL betting market outlook for the AFC South.
Not Your Daddy's Sports Betting podcast is fueled by SportfolioKings, a next-gen sports betting research platform fueled by advanced data analytics and Wall Street-style trading strategies. We blend the advantages of fundamental analysis, data science, and market- and sentiment-oriented research to identify actionable alpha opportunities in sports markets.
Join us at www.sportfoliokings.com.
The Bucs offensive line continues to receive steep praise from the media and betting markets, but bringing back only 2 of 5 starters. No Antonio Brown, no Gronk, and now missing several key cogs on the OL: if the Bucs struggle or the OL breaks down mid-season, does Tom Brady risk his health and continue to play out the season? It's a risk few bettors seem to be seriously considering. Hear about this and more from betting strategists @deepvaluebettor, @throwthedamball, and @joea_nfl on the 2022 NFL betting market outlook for the NFC South.
Not Your Daddy's Sports Betting podcast is powered by SportfolioKings, a next-gen sports betting research platform fueled by advanced data analytics and Wall Street-style trading strategies. We blend the advantages of fundamental analysis, data science, and market- and sentiment-oriented research to identify actionable alpha opportunities in sports markets.
Join us at www.sportfoliokings.com.
@ContextCapper is joined this week by @SharpClarkeNFL and @RonAceSports, two of the sharpest handicappers in the NFL scene to breakdown the AFC in a fast-paced round-robin live recorded special.
Each capper has 2 minutes to talk us through a team from each AFC division, followed by a minute of pushback/agreement.
At the half-way point in the season, this is a chance to do a concise macro view on teams across the AFC and then NFC will get our attention next week.
Zach and Brett break down week 7 briefly (25 minutes) Then spend the next hour diving into week 8. More opportunity in week 8 than week's past, as they look for the tides to turn back in the book's favor.
Are the Cardinals unstoppable?
Will the Chiefs finally turn back toward championship form?
Is Justin Herbert now OVERRATED?
Just some questions to ponder on this week's episode with Zach and Brett as they dig into Week 6 and look ahead to Week 7.
No more emails for you Mr. Gruden.
Zach and Brett are back recapping Week 5 to see what's real and what's fraudlent.
This week, the duo started a new game to MAKE PICKS, each has to pick a side of 5 games on the pod, recorded as of Wednesday night. The winner gets a special prize!
Special guest Ron @Ronacesports joins the pod with Brett and Zach. Ron is a 40 year handicapping expert who flies under the radar, but is as consistent a capper as we've seen in the space.
Rams were crowned the best in the NFC, now everyone is abandoning ship?
Jets Win. Jags should of won.. Are these teams now betable?
Is Justin Herbert the Chiefs Kryptonite?
Are the Bills and the Rams the top teams in the NFL?
Can the Bengals win the AFC North?
Zach and Brett recap Week 3 in detail to see what can be applied to Week 4's slate.
Are Kyle Murray and the Cardinals for real?
Has the league caught up to the Chiefs?
What happened to all that Winston MVP talk?
Just some questions Zach and Brett are asking as they work to make sense of week 2 and look forward to week 3.
Zach and Brett do their deep dive on every game of week 1, the market reaction, key takeaways and much more!
@SharpClarkeNFL joins @ContextCapper for the season pre-view of the AFC West. Cheifs -- Broncos -- Raiders -- Chargers, three playoff caliber teams and then there's Jon Gruden.
Zach and Brett boil down the 49ers to what the hell is going on at QB. Nonetheless, in Shannahan they trust to field a competitive squad on a weekly basis.
Zach and Brett dig in and see if this is Klifff Kingsbury's last chance to prove he belongs in the NFL.
Zach and Brett continue their dive into the NFC West, this time digging into just how much Chef Russ is actually going to cook.
Mathew Stafford. Sean McVay. Super Bowl. Or does it all come unravelled when the thinned out defense underperfoms? Zach and Brett take on the LA Rams and their shot at winning it all in 2021.
Zach and Brett take on the Washington Football team, relitigate Fitzmagic and wonder just how far Washington can go in 2021.
Will Jalen Hurts prove the doubter wrong? Just some of the questions Zach and Brett deep dive, hoping to prove the PFF's of the world wrong.
Zach and Brett weigh the pros and mostly cons of what it means to bet on "America's Team."
KinMe at SportfolioKings.com
Zach and Brett take on the Giants, their upgraded weaponry and make their case for how this is the end of the Gettleman era.
Panthers were the one of the most competitive teams in 2020, and with a coaching staff who finally has an off-season and a soft opening schedule, Zach and Brett make their case for a Panthers BIG surprise.
Falcons achilles heel has been HC Dan Quinn. With him gone and Arthur Smith in, with a favorable schedule, Falcons will surprise early and find themselves in the playoff hunt.
Zach and Brett do their preseason deep dive on the Atlanta Falcons
KingMe
Zach and Brett do their deep dive on the Saints, making a bullish and bearish case for 2021. Will Sean Payton solve his WR dilemma? Can Winston or Hill actually replace Brees? Can the Saints overcome their loss of talent by scheming with a rotation of QBs?
KingMe
Zach and Brett recap and preview the Super Bowl champs, giving insights into how Zach went 10-0 to start the season betting on and against the Bucs, and more importantly looking to how the Bucs are in prime position to repeat as Super Bowl Champions. Go to SportfolioKings.com to check out what tools are in store for this NFL season and beyond!
Zach @ContextCapper and Brett @deepvaluebettor take on the Minnesota Vikings, upgraded defense, a top 10 offense and WHEN the Vikings are on the table to bet in 2021 -- Tip: Early and often. Follow, Subscribe and for King's sake sign up on the website SportfolioKings.com for free!! #KingMe
Zach @ContextCapper and Brett @deepvaluebettor take on the Detroit Lions, coaching turnover, an improved defense and WHEN the Lions are on the table to bet in 2021. Follow, Subscribe and for King's sake sign up on the website SportfolioKings.com #KingMe
SportfolioKing's Zach @ContextCapper and Brett @deepvaluebettor do their pre-season deep dive on the Green Bay Packers to see if Rodgers returns with the same fire in 2021 as he had in 2020 in his "Revenge Tour" to prove he still had it.
SportfolioKing's Zach @ContextCapper and Brett @deepvaluebettor start their pre-season deep dive with the Chicago Bears!
Check out Youtube SportfolioKings for the video version, charts and data included!
Not Your Daddy's Sports Betting. #KingMe