Insigneo Talks: Recent Episodes
Insigneo
RichardBernstein is the chief executive officer/chief investment officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors LLC.
The firm utilizes a unique top-down approach to investing, focusing on macro trends rather than individual stock selection. RBA is one of the fastest growing moneymanagement firms, is among Morningstar’s Top 10 ETF Model Managers in assets and partners with some of the world’s leading financial institutions.
Mr. Bernstein has over 40 years’ experience on Wall Street, and was formerly the Chief Investment Strategist at Merrill Lynch & Co. Prior to joining Merrill Lynch in 1988, he held positions at E.F. Hutton and Chase Econometrics/IDC.
A much-noted expert on equity, style and asset allocation, Mr. Bernstein was voted to Institutional Investor magazine’s annual “All-America Research Team” eighteentimes and is one of only fifty-seven analysts inducted into the Institutional Investor “Hall of Fame”. He was also twice named to both Fortune magazine’s “All-Star Analysts” and to Smart Money magazine’s “Power 30” and was a member of Registered Rep’s “Ten to watch” for 2012. His book “Style Investing: Unique Insight into Equity Management” is widely viewed as the seminal book on style-oriented investment strategies. He donates the
profits from that and his other book, “Navigate the Noise: Investing in the New Age of Media and Hype,” to charity.
Mr. Bernstein is chair of the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation endowment’s Investment Committee (~$2.0 billion) and sits on the Hamilton College endowment’s InvestmentCommittee (~$1 billion); he is a trustee of both institutions.
Rich holds an MBA in finance, with Beta Gamma Sigma distinction, from New York University, and a BAin economics from Hamilton College. He has lectured on finance and economics at numerous colleges, universities, and professional forums.
Tamarind Effio joins us from PNC International Private Bank, with over 18 years of consumer facing banking experience, most recently focused on offering U.S based life insurance policies as a tool for legacy planning, estate tax liability mitigation, estate planning and business succession planning for clients. As a bilingual professional, she has worked in both Latin American and domestic markets supporting financial advisors and wealth managers with life insurance solutions for their clients. Prior to her career in life insurance, Tamarind worked extensively in commercial and residential lending for nationwide banks, and this experience has allowed her to assist clients in navigating the financing of life insurance premiums. Her key to success has been to convey the importance of life insurance as a necessary tool for protection and asset growth on several fronts for clients. There are very few products in the capital markets today that offer the guarantees and tax benefits that life insurance can provide.
Robert Minter, CFA, CMT, CAIA, Director of ETF Investment Strategy. Robert has written on commodities and has been quoted in press articles. Bob joined abrdn in 2006 and has extensive experience managing US multi asset portfolios. Before joining abrdn, he worked at Vanguard, Fidelity and then Emerald Capital Group, where he managed fixed income portfolios and monetized workout securities for insurance company portfolios. A member of the CFA Institute, CMT Association and the CAIA Association, Bob earned his B.A. in Economics from Rutgers University.Featured in the Middle: Dan Magnusson, Sr. Director, is the firm’s ETF specialist working with all clients across national accounts, platform, institutional and retail segments. Dan also works on the branding, marketing and overall support of the firm’s ETF related content, research and initiatives. Before moving into the ETF role, Dan was a regional specialist with abrdn in offering high-level coverage for clients in the Western US. Prior to that, Dan held roles as a regional wholesaler for Guggenheim Investments and began his career in Chicago as a Financial Advisor. Dan has over 20 years of investment experience and has acquired industry registrations such as the Series 7 and 63.
Joseph Graham leads the efforts of Lord Abbett’s nvestment Strategist team. This team serves as the client-facing extension of Lord Abbett’s Investment team, communicating with institutional clients and prospects regarding asset allocation topics, market environment, current portfolio positioning, and the firm’s marketoutlook. Mr. Graham currently has a focus on high grade and multi-sector fixed income, including convertibles, but also has an extensive background in quantitative tools and equity portfolio management. Mr. Graham joined LordAbbett in 2015. Prior to joining the firm, he was a Founder and CIO of two quantitative hedge funds: HudsonView Capital Management and Route 3 Capital; an Analyst and Portfolio Manager at Millennium Partners and at LibertyView Capital Management; and an Investment Banking Associate at Morgan Keegan. He has beenin the financial services industry since 1999.
Mr. Graham earned a BS in finance and philosophy Summa Cum Laude from Washington University and an MBA with Honors from the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania. He is also a holder of the CFA® (Chartered Financial Analyst) designation.
Economía en movimiento: El Arte cinético de transformar la energía en riqueza
- Comentarios Introductorios
- Perspectivas macro y de mercado
- Una reacción en cadena
- Almacenamiento de energía e inversión
Economy in Motion: The Kinetic Art of Turning Energy into Wealth
- Introductory Remarks
- Macroeconomic & Market Forecast
- A Chain Reaction
- Energy Storage and Investment Opportunities
Mr. DeGaetano is the Chief Investment Officer and Founder of Bramshill Investments. Prior to founding Bramshill, in 2012, Mr. DeGaetano was a Senior Portfolio Manager at GLG Partners LP where he not only managed the predecessor to the Bramshill Income Performance Strategy, but also managed a levered US credit portfolio for the GLG Market Neutral Fund. Combined Mr. DeGaetano had approximately $375 million in assets under management for GLG Partners LP. Prior to joining GLG Partners in 2007, Mr. DeGaetano was a Managing Director and Head of US Credit Trading at RBS Greenwich Capital from 2005 through 2006. He traded and oversaw the credit trading desk, comprised of 14 traders across corporate bonds, credit default swaps and index products from investment grade to high yield averaging a $4 billion gross position.
Patrik Kauffmann is the CIO and Portfolio Manager for Aquila Asset Management based in Switzerland. He has built an impressive track-record by winning 3 times the Lipper Fund Awards in 2018, 2019 and 2020 with the Solitaire Global Bond Fund which currently holds a 5 Morningstar-Rating. He has 19 years of investment experience. Prior to co-founding Aquila Asset Management, he carried out several functions, such as Portfolio Manager at Solitaire Aquila AG, Reyl Cie, AIG Private Bank and was responsible for the investment strategy of bank zweiplus AG. He holds a Bachelor of Science in International Management from the European School of Business and Reims Management School. Patrik speaks several languages.
Ben is one of the founding partners of TwentyFour Asset Management (TwentyFour) and currently serves as its CEO.Since 2015, he has been a member of TwentyFour’s Executive Committee, which has the overall responsibility for the day-to-day running of the firm, and also sits on the Board of Directors which sets the overall direction, strategy and management of TwentyFour. He is also a member of the Asset Allocation & ESG Committees.Prior to becoming CEO, Ben’s main responsibility was managing TwentyFour’s Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) business, having launched various funds and managed several institutional mandates.Ben has over 25 years of fixed income portfolio management experience, including 9 years at Citigroup Alternative Investments, where he was responsible for managing four vehicles that invested $100bn across ABS and credit.
El almanaque del inversionista de Insigneo para 2024: navegando un mar de cambio- Definiendo el Rumbo a través de Cambios Políticos y Corrientes Geopolíticas- ¿Se Equivoca el Consenso Otra Vez?- Contexto Macroeconómico- Implicaciones de Mercado y Asignación de Activos- Excepcionalismo en Estados Unidos: ¿Durará?- El rendimiento pasado no es garantía de resultados futuros... ¿O sí?
Insigneo’s Investor’s Almanac for 2024: Navigating a Sea of Change- Charting the Course Through Policy Shifts and Geopolitical Currents- Is the Consensus Wrong Again?- Market Implications & Guidance- U.S. Exceptionalism: Will it Last?- Past Performance is Not a Guarantee of Future Results...or is it?
Brendan Ahern is the Chief Investment Officer at KraneShares. Brendan joined KraneShares in 2013. Brendan leads the firm’s research and education efforts and actively works with investors on a variety of subjects ranging from asset allocation to trading to articulating the growing influence that index providers hold in theasset management industry. Prior experience includes over ten years with Barclays Global Investors (subsequently BlackRock’s iShares), which he joined in 2001 during the rollout of their ETF business. His career has spanned a period of tremendous growth for ETFs, which has contributed to his profound knowledgeof the ETF landscape.
Brendan is considered a preeminent expert in global financial markets with a particular focus on China. He is a frequent visitor to China and actively maintains daily contact with a deep local research network comprised of investment banks, brokers, and regional and boutique research firms. He produces a daily updatecalled China Last Night (www.chinalastnight.com), which also appears as a column on Forbes.com. He is often sought after byleading business and financial outlets and regularly appears on CNBC and Bloomberg to discuss China’s capital markets. He is a frequent guest of Bloomberg Radio’s Daybreak Asia, and he is quoted in The Wall Street Journal and Investor’s Business Daily.
Brendan graduated from the College of the Holy Cross and has a Master of Science in Financial Analysis from the University of San Francisco.
Mr. Rubenstein is Co-Founder and Co-Chairman of the Board. He was elected to our Board of Directors effective July 18, 2011. Previously, Mr. Rubenstein served as Co-Chief Executive Officer of Carlyle. Prior to forming Carlyle in 1987, Mr. Rubenstein practiced law in Washington, D.C. with Shaw, Pittman, Potts &Trowbridge LLP (now Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman LLP).
From 1977 to 1981, Mr. Rubenstein was Deputy Assistant to the President for Domestic Policy. From 1975 to 1976, he served as Chief Counsel to the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee’s Subcommittee on Constitutional Amendments. From 1973 to 1975, Mr. Rubenstein practiced law in New York with Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison LLP. Among other philanthropic endeavors, Mr. Rubenstein is Chairman of the Boards of the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts, the Council on Foreign Relations, the National Gallery of Art, the Economic Club ofWashington, and the University of Chicago and serves on the Boards of Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, Johns Hopkins Medicine, the Institute for Advanced Study, the National Constitution Center, the Brookings Institution, the Lincoln Center for the Performing Arts, the American Academy of Arts andSciences, and the World Economic Forum. Mr. Rubenstein serves as a Fellow of the Harvard Corporation and as Chairman of the Harvard Global Advisory Council and the Madison Council of the Library of Congress. He is a member of the American Philosophical Society, Business Council, Board of Dean’s Advisors of the Business School at Harvard, Advisory Board of the School of Economics and Management at Tsinghua University, and Board of the World Economic Forum Global Shapers Community.
Mr. Rubenstein is a magna cum laude graduate of Duke University, where he was elected Phi Beta Kappa. Following Duke, Mr. Rubenstein graduated from the University of Chicago Law School, where he was an editor of the Law Review.
José Siaba SerrateEconomist from Universidad de Buenos Aires and UCEMA.2017 Konex Prize on Economic Analysis.Member of: Argentine Academy of Capital Markets Argentine Council of Foreign Relations (CARI) International Policy Institute of the Argentine Academy of Political and Moral SciencesCurrently teaches at: Universidad de Buenos Aires Universidad del CEMA (UCEMA), Argentine Institute of Capital Markets (IAMC)Formerly taught at: National Foreign Service Institute (ISEN), Universidad de Belgrano, Universidad Torcuato Di TellaRegular columnist of: Ambito Financiero (Argentina´s leading financial daily),Diario Clarín (Argentina´s main circulation paper)Founder and CEO of: Estudio Siaba Serrate (Business Consultancy)Formerly General Manager of: Ambito Financiero.
Alona Gornick serves as a Managing Director, Senior Investment Strategist, and Co-Head of the Chicago Office for Churchill Asset Management. In her role, Alona provides meaningful investmentinsights across the private capital spectrum to the investment community, with a particular emphasis on the Private Wealth and Retail channel.
Alona joined Churchill in 2017 as an Originator, developing relationships with leading private equity sponsors to source and structure high-quality deal flow for the platform.
Prior to joining Churchill, Alona spent 14 years in various investment, capital markets and investor relations roles at leading organizations, including Nuveen (Churchill’s parent company),Golden Gate Capital, and Oaktree Capital Management.
Alona earned her B.A. in Business Administration from the Kenan-Flagler Business School at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and her M.B.A. from The Wharton School at theUniversity of Pennsylvania.
Joseph Mazzoli is a member of Barings’ Client Portfolio Management Team, responsible for the distribution and management of Barings’ Private Credit Direct Lending BDC franchise. Joseph has worked in the industry since 2012. Prior to joining the firm in 2022, he worked for Wells Fargo Securities’ Leveraged Finance Sales and Trading Group, where he worked as a Senior Investment Analyst covering loans and bonds in the Healthcare, Packaging, Real Estate, and DATS sectors. Before that, Joseph worked in the Equity Research Department of Wells Fargo Securities covering BDC’s and Private Credit. In a prior role at Wells Fargo Securities, Joseph worked on the Leveraged Loan Syndicate desk with a focus on structuring and underwriting syndicated loan transactions. He holds a B.S. in Business Administration from the College of Charleston and is a member of the CFA Institute. Barings has been named the 2nd most active lending to private equity sponsors in both North America and Europe consecutively over the past few years. The Barings Private Credit Corporation (BPCC) has been one of the best performing and highest yielding funds in the category with the lowest volatility and fee structure since inception.
Tom Harvey is a Senior Equity Specialist at Aberdeen. Tom focuses on the firm's equity strategies. Prior to joining the company in February 2013, he served as Vice President, Institutional Sales and Consultant Relations at Delaware Investments. In this role, he worked with institutional clients, prospects, and consultants in the eastern United States. Tom earned his bachelor's degree in history studies from Juniata College and an MBA with a concentration in finance from Philadelphia University. He is a CFA charterholder.
Andrew is a Senior Economist and a member of the First Trust Economics Team that Bloomberg has ranked as one of the top forecasters of the U.S. economy over the past several years.
At First Trust, Andrew is responsible for analyzing economic indicators, writing economic commentaries, and producing articles on the First Trust Economics Blog. Andrew provides research and analysis to Chief Economist Brian Wesbury, Chief Market Strategist Bob Carey, and First Trust CEO Jim Bowen.
Cogent’s 2017 Survey of Advisors rated First Trust’s thought leadership material as number one for most read and most shared by financial professionals with colleagues or clients.
Andrew received an MBA from Northwestern University’s Kellogg Graduate School of Management and a BA in Business and Economics from Hope College.
Brett Collins, CFA is an Executive Director and Client Portfolio Manager at NCRAM. He rejoined the firm in July 2021 and covers US, European, and Global High Yield, and Emerging Market Debt and Multi-Credit strategies. Prior to this role, Brett held a variety of positions at State Street Global Advisors, including Quantitative Equity Client Portfolio Manager and Chief Operating Officer of the firm's Investment Solutions Group. Brett also worked at NCRAM from 1996 to 2004 as an Analyst with the firm's Emerging Market Debt team. He holds an MBA inFinance and International Business from Columbia Business School and a B.S. in Finance/Investments from Babson College. He is a CFA charter holder and a member of the CFA Institute.
Alexander Wright is Partner, Global Wealth Strategist in theClient and Product Solutions group at Apollo. Previously, Alexander was the Co-Head of Yield Products and a portfolio manager for Apollo's closed end funds, CLOs, and private BDC. Prior to joining in 2011, he was with GSC Group where he served in a variety of different roles, most recently as Chief Administrative Officer, Chief Financial Officer, and Head of US Corporate Debt.Before that, Alexander was with IBJ Whitehall Bank & Trust Corporation and Chemical Banking Corporation.
Alexander graduated from Rutgers College with a BA inPolitical Science and a minor in Economics and earned his MBA from Fordham University. Alexander serves on the Fordham University President's Council and the Alternative Investments Senior Advisory Board.
Chris Simard, Executive Director, is an Investment Specialist in the Infrastructure Investments Group. In this role, he is responsible for capital raising and advising clients for the firm’sinfrastructure investment platform. Chris works with a variety of Institutions, with a specific focus on the United Kingdom, Northern Europe, the Middle East and the United States. Chris has spent the past 10 years working at J.P Morgan in both Asset Management and the Investment Bank.
The fund is a diversified open-ended strategy that invests in private infrastructure equity and focuses on core assets where most of the return is cash yield. The IIF Team has over 15 years of operating experience, using scale, control positions and existing portfolio construction to reduce volatility and deliver stable cash yield. The fund has 26.8 billion in assets with 20 portfolio companies (783 assets).
Entre más cambian las cosas, más permanecen iguales‣ ¿Esta vez realmente es diferente?‣ Determinando el momento de la próxima recesión en Estados Unidos‣ Implicaciones del mercado‣ こんにちは (Kon’nichiwa), Japón!‣ El problema taiwanés para China es estructural, no cíclico‣ Mirando hacia las cruciales elecciones en EE. UU. de 2024‣ Evaluando el impacto económico y de mercado de la IA
The more things change, the more they stay the same‣ Is this time really different?‣ Timing the next US recession‣ Market implications‣ こんにちは (Kon’nichiwa), Japan!‣ China’s Taiwan problem is structural, not cyclical‣ Looking ahead to the seminal US 2024 election‣ Gauging AI’s economic and market impact
Jacques-Aurélien joined Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management in March 2009 as portfolio manager/analyst in the Global Equity team and has been the Lead Portfolio Manager of the EdR Big Data Fund since launch in August 2015. He is also the Equity Team global technology specialist. In 2019, he was appointed Co-Head of the Equity team.
Jacques-Aurélien Marcireau is graduated from the Institutd’Etudes Politiques de Lille and holds a Master’s degree in Economy and Financial Analysis from the Université de Lille 2. He is also a CFA charterholder.
Our speaker series this week features the highly anticipated discussion with David Albrycht, CFA, the president and chiefinvestment officer of Newfleet Asset Management, an affiliated manager ofVirtus Investment Partners. Mr. Albrycht is the senior portfolio manager ofseveral multi-sector fixed income strategies, some dating back to the early1990s. In his role as CIO, Mr. Albrycht drives top-down strategy for Newfleet’sinvestment platform, which includes multi-sector and dedicated sectorstrategies for high yield and bank loans.
Mr. Albrycht earned a B.A., cum laude, from Central Connecticut StateUniversity and an M.B.A., with honors, from the University of Connecticut. Hebegan his career in the investment industry in 1985.
Benoit Anne is a managing director in the Investment Solutions Group at MFS. He is a lead strategist focused on Fixed Income Solutions and Markets Insights. He is based in London and joined MFS in 2021.Previously, Benoit was in charge of asset allocation and market strategy at Liberty MutualInvestments, as a managing director based in Boston. He was also the global head of EM Strategyat Société Générale and worked as senior director, head of EMEA Strategy at Merrill Lynch. Hebegan his career in the 1990s in Washington, DC, where he served as an economist both at theInstitute of International Finance and the International Monetary Fund.Benoit earned a bachelor's degree in Applied Economics from the University of Paris‐Dauphine.He later received an International Affairs diploma from Sciences Po Paris and a Master of Arts inInternational Economics from the University of Sussex.
- Entorno macroeconómico
- El Peso Mexicano
- El Mercado de Renta Fija
- Nearshoring y el mercado de Renta Variable
François holds a postgraduate degree from Paris Dauphine. François Collet began his career in 2003 at Natixis Asset Management as a bond fund manager. He managed Natexis Oblivariable and set up Natexis Euro Inflation. In 2006, François joined La Française as Deputy Head of bond portfolio management, and more precisely in charge of the inflation theme. He managed five bond strategies with total assets under management of €2.6bn, including the Euro Inflation Fund which was rated 5 stars by Morningstar and received a Lipper Fund award in 2013. In September 2017, François joined DNCA Finance. In addition, he was appointed Deputy CIO in January 2023.
Como es costumbre, a final de julio, el FMI publicó su actualización del World Economic Outlook, que sorprendió al mercado al presentar una perspectiva más optimista de lo esperado anteriormente, aunque aún mantuvo un tono de cautela. Revisemos los puntos principales del informe, los cambios en las proyecciones de crecimiento, y nuestro análisis del reporte.
As is customary, at the end of July, the IMF published its update to the World Economic Outlook, which surprisingly portrayed a rosier outlook than previously expected, but still retained a tone of caution. Let us revise the main points of the report, the changes to its growth forecast, and our take on the report.
- Actualización económica y de mercado
- Inversiones Privadas: ¿Panacea?
- Invirtiendo en IA: Más allá de MSFT, NVDA, yGOOGL
- Macro & Market Update
- Private Investments: Panacea?
- Investing in AI: Beyond MSFT, NVDA, and GOOGL
Gary Rozier serves as Managing Director for the Oak Street division of Blue Owl Capital in its Chicago, IL office. Gary leads the Investor Relations and Institutional Marketing team for Oak Street, responsible for investor communications, capital raising, and client servicing. He also serves on the investment committee for the Net Lease strategies. Gary served as Senior Vice President at Ariel Investments for 14 years, responsible for institutional business development and client services. Before joining Ariel, Gary spent 5 years with Rydex Investments, holding multiple positions in shareholder services and financial advisor sales before being promoted to regional vice president. He oversaw product development and distribution across nine states in the Midwest. Gary earned a bachelor of arts degree in Economics from the University of Maryland, where he serves on its Board of Visitors, and Economics Leadership Council, and was a captain of the rugby team.
-
La situación política en Latam: nunca un día aburrido
-
Fintech en Latinoamérica: ¿Diamante en bruto?
-
Nearshoring y América Latina
-
Litio y América Latina
- The political situation in Latam – never a dull day- Fintech in Latam: a diamond in the rough?- Nearshoring and Latin America- Lithium and Latin America
En esta conferencia trimestral abordaremos temas disruptivos como la inteligencia artificial y la fusión nuclear. ¿Cuáles son las oportunidades, y cómo podemos invertir en ellas? ¿Cuáles son algunos de los peligros potenciales? Antes de concentrarnos en el segundo trimestre y en algunos de estos temas disruptivos, echaremos un breve vistazo, en retrospectiva, al primer trimestre.
Divulgaciones Legales Importantes: https://bit.ly/InsigneoDisclosures
In this quarterly conference, we will address disruptive themes like artificial intelligence and nuclear fusion. What are the opportunities, and how do we invest in them? What are some of the potential pitfalls? Before we look forward to the second quarter and some of these disruptive themes, let's take a brief backward glance at the first quarter.
Important Disclosures: https://bit.ly/InsigneoDisclosures
A discussion about what happened with Silicon Valley Bank, the risk of contagion to the financial system, and possible implications for the Federal Reserve.
Últimamente hemos visto una gran discusión alrededor del techo de la deuda estadounidense y las implica- ciones de un impago de Estados Unidos para el contexto macroeconómico y de inversión actual. Incluso si hay mucha incertidumbre y especulación alrededor del tema, intentaremos hacer nuestro mejor esfuerzo para destacar la línea de tiempo, los poten- ciales escenarios que podrían ocurrir si se da un incumplimiento del techo, y evaluar las implicaciones de inversión y de mercado.
Lately, much has been written and discussed about the looming debt ceiling and the implications of a US default for the current macro and investment backdrop. Even if there is much uncertainty and speculation around the issue, let us do our best to highlight the upcoming timeline, the potential scenarios that could unfold if we breach it, and gauge any market or investment implications.
• Las últimas publicaciones macroeconómicas de Estados Unidos sugieren que el crecimiento se mantiene boyante, dado que hay una resiliencia particular en el mercado laboral y una fortaleza en el sector de servicios. Desafortunadamente, un crecimiento sólido a su vez está aumentando las probabilidades de que la inflación sea persistente, ya que las últimas lecturas también han sorprendido al mercado al alza.
• En contraste, la retroalimentación obtenida de las compañías durante la actual entrega de resultados ha sido una con un crecimiento desacelerado y una menor inflación. Esto se ha reflejado en el guidance más moderado de las directivas.
• Entonces, ¿a cuál perspectiva debemos darle mayor credibilidad?
• Recent US economic data suggest that growth remains buoyant as there is particular resilience in the labor market and strength in services. Unfortunately, stronger growth is simultaneously raising the odds of persistent inflation as the latest figures have come in higher than expected as well.
• In contrast, the feedback from companies during this current earnings season has been one of slowing growth and lower inflation. This has been reflected in weak aggregate guidance from management teams.
• So, which outlook are we to give greater credence?
James Johnstone is the portfolio manager for the Frontier Markets strategy at Redwheel. He also serves as a member of the investment committee for the Redwheel Emerging and Frontier Markets strategies. He has 26 years of experience in investment management and research. Most recently he was a Senior Managing Director and Director of Investments at Everest Capital, since 2009, where he was responsible for portfolio management and research in frontier markets. Prior to this James was a co-founder and CIO of Alcor Investment Management, a long-short, multi-strategy Asian hedge fund headquartered in Singapore. He previously worked for Gartmore Investment Management for three years where he was a member of both the long-only and long-short global emerging markets teams. He started his career with Schroders Investment Management, working on the UK equities and Global Emerging Markets teams. James also served in the Royal Navy for five years. He graduated from Christ Church, Oxford University with an MA (Hons) in Classics and Modern Languages. James speaks Russian.
Art DeGaetano – is the Chief Investment Officer and Founder of Bramshill Investments. Before founding Bramshill, in 2012, Mr. DeGaetano was a Senior Portfolio Manager at GLG Partners LP where he managed the predecessor to the Bramshill Income Performance Strategy and a levered US credit portfolio for the GLG Market Neutral Fund. Combined, Mr. DeGaetano had approximately $375mm in assets under management at GLG Partners LP. Prior to GLG Partners in 2007, Mr. DeGaetano was Managing Director and Head of US Credit Trading at RBS Greenwich Capital from 2005 through 2006. He traded and oversaw the credit trading desk, comprised of 14 traders across corporate bonds, credit default swaps, and indexes from investment grade to high yield, averaging a $4B gross position. Prior to RBS Greenwich Capital, he traded credit for Bear Sterns and Co, Inc.
No es un secreto que el 2022 fue un año retador. En medio de un conflicto geopolítico inesperado que empañó la recuperación mundial, una pandemia en decadencia que aun así consiguió presionar la cadena global de suministro, y la implementación inminente de una política monetaria más restrictiva, tanto los bancos centrales como las economías tuvieron que ajustarse a esta realidad inesperada.
En este contexto, los inversionistas se vieron forzados a aceptar un ambiente diferente, así como otra manera de invertir, después de haber estado acostumbrados a una política monetaria expansiva y a tasas bajas por mucho tiempo. Por lo tanto, decidimos responder varias preguntas que recibimos de nuestros clientes, con la esperanza de que nuestra perspectiva pueda traer algo de claridad en lo que consideramos serían oportunidades de inversión atractivas para el próximo año, y que dependen de nuestra perspectiva macroeconómica.
It is no secret that 2022 was a challenging year. Amid an unexpected geopolitical conflict that tainted the world’s recovery, a waning pandemic that still managed to strain the global supply chain, and the imminent implementation of a tighter monetary policy, central banks and economies had to adjust to this unexpected reality.
Against this backdrop, investors were forced to accept a different environment and a different way to invest after being used to lose monetary policy and lower rates. Thus, we decided to answer several questions we received from our clients in hopes that our views can shed some light on what we consider attractive opportunities for the year ahead, dependent on our macroeconomic views.
- Una mirada al 2022 y sus implicaciones
- Pronósticos macroeconómicos
- Pronósticos de mercado
- Perspectivas geopolíticas
- A Look Back to 2022 and Implications
- Macroeconomic Forecasts
- Market Forecasts
- Geopolitical Outlook
Estas son dos preguntas que los inversionistas deberían estarse haciendo después de la reunión de la Reserva Federal del miércoles. Los mercados de bonos y acciones tuvieron un comportamiento positivo después de que el comunicado fuera publicado a las 2pm EST, pero luego cambiaron su curso rápidamente durante la rueda de prensa del Gerente Powell. Analicemos los cambios sustanciales (si es que los hubo) de política monetaria, y cuáles podrían ser las implicaciones de inversión de estos.
These are the two questions that investors should be asking themselves after Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. The equity and rate markets rallied after the statement was released at 2 PM EST, but then quickly reversed course as Chair Powell spoke during the press conference. Let us analyze the substantive changes (if any) of monetary policy that occurred, and what the investment implications from the shift may be.
Decir que este año ha sido complicado para los inversionistas y para todos los que están involucrados con los activos financieros sería un eufemismo. Al momento de escribir esto, durante los últimos días de septiembre, la mayoría de los activos financieros, con la excepción del dólar estadounidense, están cerca de sus mínimos del año; índices accionarios y de renta fija se encuentran por debajo del 20%, el umbral tradicional para un mercado bajista. Nuestras dos mayores predicciones de la llamada trimestral pasada se cumplieron. No se ha materializado una recesión en Estados Unidos, y no ha habido un rally de rebote en los mercados financieros. Esperábamos que la volatilidad continúe durante el tercer trimestre, pero que se disipara en el cuarto trimestre. Ese ya no es el caso.
To say that this year has been a difficult one for investors, professionals, and everyone else involved with financial assets would be a lexiconic case of understatement. As we write this during the final days of September, most major asset classes, with the lone exception of the US Dollar, are sitting near their lows for the year; global equity and bond indices stand below 20%, the traditional demarcation for a bear market. Our two major predictions from the previous quarterly conference call came to fruition. We have had no recession materialize in the US, and there has been no rebound rally in financial assets. We expected volatility to continue in Q3 but to dissipate in the fourth quarter. That is no longer the case. What has changed our view? Quite simply, the persistence of inflationary pressures in most parts of the world, outside of Japan and China.
Putin erróneamente creyó que podría abrirse paso a través de una Blitzkrieg hasta Kyiv, y que las tropas rusas serían recibidas como libertadores. Occidente ahora también cree, erróneamente, que puede sobrevivir a la determinación rusa en un tema central de seguridad en su “extranjero cercano”. Todas las naciones tienen intereses, capacidades, y limitaciones.
Putin erroneously believed that he could blitzkrieg his way to Kyiv and that Russian troops would be welcomed as liberators. The West now too mistakenly believes that they can outlast Russia’s determination on a core security issue in its near abroad. All nations have interests, capabilities, and constraints.
Mientras los mercados lidiaban con la guerra en Ucrania y la postura cada vez más agresiva de los bancos centrales, el segundo trimestre del año resultó ser tan volátil y angustiante para los inversionistas como el primero. Dos de los principales índices accionarios, el MSCI All World Country Index y el S&P 500 entraron brevemente en terreno bajista, registrando pérdidas de -22.5% y -23% a mediados de junio, antes de exhibir pequeños rallies en la segunda mitad del mes...
As markets grappled with the ongoing war in Ukraine and increasingly hawkish global central banks, the second quarter of the year proved no less volatile and nerve-wracking for investors than the first. Two of the most universally watched global equity indices, the MSCI All Country World Index and the S&P 500, briefly fell into bear market territory, posting losses of -22.5% and -23% in the middle of June before staging mini rallies in the second half of the month...
El mundo ha cambiado dramáticamente desde la última vez que nos reunimos. Nuestras proyecciones también se han alterado como respuesta a este cambiante panorama, que ha llegado antes de lo que esperábamos. Si la invasión rusa a Ucrania se siente muy acelerada luego de la pandemia, es porque así lo es. Esto está en línea con ocasiones anteriores, ya que las crisis tienden a generar más disten- siones cada vez que los sistemas complejos se enfrentan a nuevos equilibrios.
The world has changed dramatically since we last convened. Our projections have similarly been altered in response to this shifting global landscape, which has arrived sooner than we expected. If the Russian invasion of Ukraine feels to have come quickly on the heels of the Covid pandemic, it seems this way because it has. This is in line with historical precedent as crises tend to beget further dislocations whenever complex systems stumble unto new equilibria.
Deliberations from the Q2 2022 Insigneo Investment Committee Meeting & Growth and Market Outlook
Ahmed Riesgo, as Insigneo’s CIO, oversees all the company’s research and investment functions. This includes investment strategy, devising and implementing the firm’s global market views and asset allocation, communicating them to its clients and the public, and managing the firm’s model portfolios.
Join our #QuarterlyConferenceCall on the outlook for the global economy and markets. We will address our outlook for the first quarter of 2022 for global assets, #LatinAmerica, and tackle big themes like #Balancedportfolios #China and #BigTech in the #US and #China.
Únase a nuestra #QuarterlyConferenceCall sobre las perspectivas de la economía y los mercados mundiales. Abordaremos nuestra perspectiva para el primer trimestre de 2022 para los activos globales, #AméricaLatina, y abordaremos grandes temas como #CarterasEquilibradas #China y #BigTech en los #EEUU y #China.
Comentarios de Mercado - Noviembre 2021: de LATAM y los efectos de la inflacion transitoria.
Escuche nuestra llamada trimestral (cuarto trimestre): Ahmed Riesgo, director de inversiones de Insigneo, comparte las perspectivas de la economía y los mercados mundiales. Abordamos nuestra perspectiva para el último trimestre de 2021 para los activos globales, América Latina, y grandes temas como las monedas de reserva y las grandes tecnologías en los EE. UU. Y China.
Listen in on our Quarterly Call (Q4) - Ahmed Riesgo, Chief Investment Officer at Insigneo shares the outlook for the global economy and markets.
We address our outlook for the last quarter of 2021 for global assets, Latin America, and tackle big themes like reserve currencies and Big Tech in the US and China.
Lately, the political cliché of Afghanistan being the “graveyard of empires” has been thrown around quite wantonly. The political enemies of President Biden – both foreign and domestic – have alluded to the failed British excursions during the mid- and late-Nineteenth century, and the Soviet withdrawal in 1989 as historical precursors to this century’s failed American vicennium intervention. But as with all historical analogies, the devil is in the details rather than the trope.
Últimamente, el cliché político de que Afganistán sea el “cementerio de los imperios” se ha difundido de manera bastante desenfrenada. Los enemigos políticos del presidente Biden – tanto en el ámbito internacional como en el local – han aludido a las expediciones británicas durante la mitad y el final del siglo XIX, así como la salida de la Unión Soviética en 1989 como precursores históricos de la fallida intervención estadounidense de los primeros veinte años de este siglo. Pero como ocurre con todas las analogías históricas, el problema está en los detalles más que en los símbolos.
La respuesta es, depende". Es un mercado híbrido que exhibe características EM y DM. Al modelar las acciones, las acciones chinas se comportan mucho más como los mercados emergentes, especialmente en los casos en que las decisiones políticas importan más que los fundamentos de la empresa o la industria ... Escuche este episodio para obtener más información.
Insigneo Monthly Commentary - August - English
The answer is “it depends”. It is a hybrid market exhibiting both EM and DM characteristics. When modeling equities, Chinese stocks behave much more like emerging markets, especially in cases where policy decisions matter more than company or industry fundamentals... Listen to this episode to find out more.
A submarine’s military effectiveness has always depended on its ability to remain submerged and undetected. Surprisingly, the earliest vessels operated blindly under the sea, and until the twentieth century the only way for one to see was by surfacing. Of course, this revealed the submarine’s location to nearby vessels and conceded its invisibility. Since 1903, however, naval submarines have used a tubular optical instrument known as a periscope to get a look at their surroundings. To do so, they would ascend to approximately 60 feet below the surface, deploy their periscope, assess the field of view, and then quickly descend beyond the reach of surface vessels. While at periscope depth, the submarine surrendered some maneuverability and tactical ability for the sea level surface information. This was a well understood trade-off.
Given that current and forward EPS estimates were cratering in 2020 due to the pandemic and subse-quent shutdowns, there is little doubt that much of the S&P 500’s rapid ascent last year was due to an expanding multiple. The US 10-year touched a cyclical and all-time low of 0.50% back in August. The equity risk premium, which refers to the excess return that investing in stocks provides over the risk-free rate, made equities very attractive because sovereign bonds were so unattractive. In other words, it was not so much that equities were cheap, it was that the alternatives were very expensive. Indeed, the world looked quite grim during the depths of the pandemic.
In the 1966 film adaptation of Robert Bolt’s A Man for All Seasons, the indelible Paul Schofield, who played Sir Thomas More, then Lord Chancellor of England, roared like a lion during his exchange with his young son-in-law, William Roper. The subject of their contention – Richard Rich, the man who would later betray Sir Thomas and become Lord Chancellor himself – asked the incorruptible Sir Thomas if he would employ him under his charge. Sensing Rich’s lack of moral fortitude, he denies the request, and the eager Roper implores him to arrest Rich before he becomes an interloper at Court. Having committed no crime as of yet, Sir Thomas says that he shall let him go until he broke a law, even if Rich was the Devil himself.
Our regular readers know that we believe a new economic and market cycle potentially began in late March when fiscal and monetary authorities around the world unleashed a tsunami of stimulus that bathed the world in liquidity and provided a fiscal backstop for low-income consumers and small businesses, the most impacted by the pandemic and subsequent lockdowns.