John Quincy Adams Society Events: Recent Episodes
The John Quincy Adams Society
Learn about a foreign policy of realism and restraint with audio from the JQA Society's regular digital events featuring international relations scholars, policymakers, think tankers, and more speaking about pressing issues that impact U.S. foreign policy. JQAS's guests bring expertise on subjects like Chinese military strategy, European security, and more; plus, hear about career paths in international affairs.
On this week's episode of Security Dilemma, A.J. Manuzzi and Adam Abdel-Qader spoke with Miranda Priebe, the Director of the Center for Analysis of U.S. Grand Strategy at RAND. Dr. Priebe's work has focused on grand strategy, the future of the international order, and the effects of U.S. forward presence. In this episode, we discussed the implications of a recent report from her team anticipating allies' responses to limited U.S. retrenchment.
LISTENER QUESTIONS: We are opening up Security Dilemma to listener-submitted questions. Submit questions you'd like us to ask future guests here. Please specify the episode pertaining to the question in your response. Upcoming episodes include: AMA with A.J. and John and the Pentagon budget with the Quincy Institute's Ben Freeman and William Hartung.
Check out the report here: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA739-8.html
Listener Question Submission Form: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1ouD8WAp0g_HhqLtGm4kOmqTGsJpDbaKT7CSUN3ogFrk/edit
On this week's episode of Security Dilemma, John Gay conducts a full reading of George Washington's Farewell Address, which raised concerns that listeners may find resonate today about foreign influence of U.S. foreign policy, alliance entrapment, and more. The reading is followed by a discussion with co-host A.J. Manuzzi about whether Washington's insights remain valuable in the 21st century. You can follow along and read the full speech for yourself here.
LISTENER QUESTIONS: We are opening up Security Dilemma to listener-submitted questions. Submit questions you'd like us to ask future guests here. Please specify the episode pertaining to the question in your response. Upcoming episodes include: AMA with A.J. and John, U.S. alliances and retrenchment with the RAND Corporation's Miranda Priebe, and the Pentagon budget with the Quincy Institute's Ben Freeman and William Hartung.
On this week's episode of Security Dilemma, A.J. Manuzzi and John Gay spoke with Decker Eveleth, an associate research analyst at the federally funded nonprofit research and analysis organization CNA. Decker specializes in open-source analysis of foreign nuclear postures, as well as ballistic and cruise missile forces in the Middle East and Asia. In this episode we discussed the state of Iran’s nuclear and missile programs in the aftermath of the Twelve-Day War.
LISTENER QUESTIONS: We are opening up Security Dilemma to listener-submitted questions. Submit questions you'd like us to ask future guests here. Please specify the episode pertaining to the question in your response. Upcoming episodes include: AMA with A.J. and John, a reading and discussion of George Washington's Farewell Address, U.S. alliances and retrenchment with the RAND Corporation's Miranda Priebe, and the Pentagon budget with the Quincy Institute's Ben Freeman and William Hartung.
LISTENER SURVEY: Please answer our two-question survey of Security Dilemma listeners. Respondents who provide their email address will be entered into a drawing. The first prize is a signed copy of John Mearsheimer's The Tragedy of Great Power Politics; there are also digital copies of our recent reading group book, Paul R. Pillar's Why America Misunderstands the World. Respond to the survey here.
On this week's episode of Security Dilemma, A.J. Manuzzi spoke with John Byrnes, the Strategic Director of Concerned Veterans for America to discuss how his experiences being at Ground Zero on 9/11 and serving in America's post-9/11 wars shifted his perspective on U.S. foreign policy to a belief in realism and restraint. Mr. Byrnes joined the Marine Corps in 1991 out of high school and served four years, deployed to Somalia in 1993. He joined the New York National Guard, serving at Ground Zero after the September 11th terrorist attacks and was deployed to both Iraq and Afghanistan before retiring from the National Guard in 2018.
He also has a new article out in The American Conservative, in which he discusses his foreign policy evolution and the lessons policymakers should draw from our post-9/11 wars.
LISTENER SURVEY: Please answer our two-question survey of Security Dilemma listeners. Respondents who provide their email address will be entered into a drawing. The first prize is a signed copy of John Mearsheimer's The Tragedy of Great Power Politics; there are also digital copies of our recent reading group book, Paul R. Pillar's Why America Misunderstands the World. Respond to the survey here.
On this week's episode of Security Dilemma, A.J. Manuzzi and John Gay spoke with Jonathan Guyer of the Institute for Global Affairs at Eurasia Group. Jonathan is the Program Director of IGA's flagship Independent America program, which is focused on interrogating the conventional wisdom of US foreign policy and informing the public about America’s changing role in the world. He was previously a senior foreign policy writer at Vox and managing editor of The American Prospect. Our conversation today discussed U.S. Middle East policy, the rise of Silicon Valley-based defense firms, and the "revolving door" between industry and government.
LISTENER SURVEY: Please answer our two-question survey of Security Dilemma listeners. Respondents who provide their email address will be entered into a drawing. The first prize is a signed copy of John Mearsheimer's The Tragedy of Great Power Politics; there are also digital copies of our recent reading group book, Paul R. Pillar's Why America Misunderstands the World. Respond to the survey here.
On this week's episode of Security Dilemma, John Allen Gay and A.J. Manuzzi spoke with Ted Jones, the Senior Director for National Security and International Programs at the Nuclear Energy Institute. An expert on international energy markets and nuclear trade policy, he leads initiatives related to nuclear energy exports. In addition to his work on nuclear trade policy and promotion, Mr. Jones serves as liaison to stakeholders in the nuclear policy and national security communities. Mr. Jones previously served as policy director of the U.S.-India Business Council at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. During his tenure there, he led a successful campaign to change U.S. law and international rules to admit India to the global commercial nuclear trade.
In this episode, we discussed the global nuclear supply chain, energy security, and careers with industry trade groups.
LISTENER SURVEY: Please answer our two-question survey of Security Dilemma listeners. Respondents who provide their email address will be entered into a drawing. The first prize is a signed copy of John Mearsheimer's The Tragedy of Great Power Politics; there are also digital copies of our recent reading group book, Paul R. Pillar's Why America Misunderstands the World. Respond to the survey here.
On this week's episode of Security Dilemma, John Allen Gay and A.J. Manuzzi spoke with Madison Schramm about why liberal democracies often initiate wars against dictatorships.Dr. Schramm is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Toronto and a Nonresident Senior Fellow with the Stimson Center’s Reimagining U.S. Grand Strategy Program. Her research focuses on international security, the domestic politics of foreign policy, political psychology, and gender and foreign policy. She was previously an Assistant Professor at the U.S. Army War College and is a term member of the Council on Foreign Relations. In this episode, we discussed her book Why Democracies Fight Dictators, whether there is global competition between democracies and autocratic states, and threat inflation.
On this week's episode of Security Dilemma, John Gay conducts a full reading of John Quincy Adams' July 4, 1821 "Monsters to Destroy" speech (which warned the United States against overreach abroad in the name of liberty), followed by a discussion with co-host A.J. Manuzzi about the enduring relevance of Adams' words for U.S. statecraft. You can read the full speech for yourself here.
On this week's episode of Security Dilemma, John Allen Gay and A.J. Manuzzi spoke with Dan Caldwell and Jennifer Kavanagh about their recent Defense Priorities explainer on U.S. defense posture under a grand strategy of restraint.
Dan Caldwell is a former senior adviser to the Secretary of Defense and worked on the Trump 2024 transition team. He is a veteran of the Marines and a former Capitol Hill staffer. Jennifer is a senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities. She previously was a senior fellow in the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment and a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation, where she directed RAND’s Army Strategy program for three years. Kavanagh’s research focuses on U.S. military strategy, force structure and defense budgeting, the defense industrial base, and U.S. military interventions.
In this conversation, we discussed how the United States can realign its defense posture with realist core national interests and objectives, and what obstacles such a realignment would face. You can read their full paper here: https://www.defensepriorities.org/explainers/aligning-global-military-posture-with-us-interests/.
On this week's episode of Security Dilemma, A.J. Manuzzi and Michelle Newby spoke with Dr. Lindsey O'Rourke, an Associate Professor of Political Science at Boston College and a Non-Resident Fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. She’s the author of Covert Regime Change: America’s Secret Cold War, which catalogues and analyses Cold War-era U.S. regime change efforts.
We discussed why American regime change efforts are often futile, take a closer look at spheres of influence as a fact of life, and examined how an American regime change war in Iran would transpire, and why it would likely fail to achieve American interests.
On this week's episode of Security Dilemma, A.J. Manuzzi and new guest co-hostMichelle Newby, Programs Director at Defense Priorities and a 2024 JQAS Strategic Leaders Fellow, spoke withKyuri Park. Dr. Park is a Postdoctoral Fellow with the Security and Foreign Policy Initiative at the Global Research Institute and a faculty affiliate of the Public Policy Program at the College of William & Mary. She studies international security and cooperation, with a regional focus on the Asia-Pacific.
We discussed her book project on the behavior of Asia-Pacific secondary states diversify their partnerships amid U.S.-China competition and its implications for U.S. policymakers. We also discussed the future of the U.S.-South Korea alliance in the wake of the election of new President Lee Jae-myung and whether nuclear diplomacy with North Korea is viable.
Our listeners should also check out Dr. Park's new article on South Korea's strategic autonomy in The National Interest co-authored with former SD guest Dave Kang: https://nationalinterest.org/blog/korea-watch/south-korea-will-not-choose-between-the-us-and-china
On this off-cycle episode of Security Dilemma, John Gay sat down with A.J. Manuzzi to discuss Iran's 6/20 missile attacks on Israel, why deeper U.S. involvement could lead to mission creep and shifting goals, and congressional efforts to block unauthorized U.S. entry into the war.
On this week's episode of Security Dilemma, John Allen Gay and A.J. Manuzzi spoke with Sarah Streyder, the Executive Director of the Secure Families Initiative, a national organization that mobilizes military families to advocate for a less militarized foreign policy. Sarah is the spouse of an active-duty service member in the Space Force and was nationally recognized for her leadership. Before founding SFI, Streyder worked at the White House and the United Nations.
Our conversation covered a lot of ground, including SFI's work on war powers reform and ending the war in Afghanistan.
On this impromptu episode of Security Dilemma, the Society's Executive Director John Gay sat down with SD cohost A.J. Manuzzi to discuss Israel's June 12 strikes on Iranian nuclear and regime targets, and several potential decisions the Iranians could make to retaliate, as well as what it all means for U.S. policy.
On this week's episode of Security Dilemma, John Allen Gay and A.J. Manuzzi spoke with Khurram Dastgir Khan. Mr. Khan is a former member of Pakistan's cabinet, having led the ministries of Energy, Foreign Affairs, Defence, and Commerce since 2014. He served as a member of the National Assembly of Pakistan between 2008 and 2023.
Our conversation covered the recent conflict between India and Pakistan, as well as Pakistan's relationships with the United States and China.
On this week's episode of Security Dilemma, John Allen Gay and A.J. Manuzzi spoke with Michael Brenes. Dr. Brenes is Co-Director of the Brady-Johnson Program in Grand Strategy and Lecturer in History at Yale University. His research interests include United States foreign policy, political history, and political economy.
He is the author of For Might and Right: Cold War Defense Spending and the Remaking of American Democracy, published by University of Massachusetts Press in 2020, as well as the co-author (with fellow former Security Dilemma guest Van Jackson) of The Rivalry Peril: How Great-Power Competition Threatens Peace and Weakens Democracy.
Our conversation focused on why a framework of "great power competition" is unlikely to reinforce peace and democracy, Cold War liberalism, and the principles of a progressive foreign policy.
On this week's episode of Security Dilemma, John Allen Gay and A.J. Manuzzi spoke with Candace Rondeaux, the author of Putin’s Sledgehammer: The Wagner Group and Russia’s Collapse into Mercenary Chaos. She serves as the Senior Director for the Future Frontlines and Planetary Politics programs at New America, and is a professor of practice at Arizona State University. Previously, she advised the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction and served as the South Asia bureau chief for The Washington Post. Our conversation today discussed the origins of the Wagner Group, the role of mercenaries in Russia’s national security strategy, and more. You can purchase the book, which was released May 13, here: https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/candace-rondeaux/putins-sledgehammer/9781541703087/?lens=publicaffairs
This week on Security Dilemma, John Allen Gay and A.J. Manuzzi spoke with Daniel McCarthy, Editor-in-Chief of Modern Age. Mr. McCarthy is a leading light in the conservative movement for a more restrained U.S. foreign policy. He is a regular contributor to The Spectator, and the former editor of The American Conservative, the magazine founded by conservatives opposed to the war in Iraq. He also worked on the Ron Paul 2008 presidential campaign. Our conversation covered the connection between liberalism and empire, how the experience of the American Revolution shaped U.S. foreign policy, as well as about contemporary conservative foreign policy thought from Pat Buchanan to Trump.
This week on Security Dilemma, John Allen Gay and A.J. Manuzzi spoke with Curt Mills, the Executive Director of The American Conservative, where he previously served as senior reporter and contributing editor. He specializes in foreign policy and campaign coverage. Our conversation touched on some of the Trump Administration's seminal initiatives, including diplomacy with Russia and Iran, the potential annexation of Greenland, and more. We also discussed the President's national security personnel and where the respective political parties could go on foreign policy in 2028.
This week on Security Dilemma, John Allen Gay and Michael Culp spoke with John Vick, the Executive Director of Concerned Veterans for America. John Vick enlisted in the Marine Corps in 2003, and deployed to al-Anbar, Iraq in 2005. He has also served in the Navy, mobilizing twice in support of Operation Inherent Resolve, and he continues to serve in the Navy Reserve as an intelligence officer supporting U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM). Our conversation discussed U.S. Middle East and Africa policy, careers in military intelligence, and how to combat the U.S. military's recruiting crisis.
On this week's episode of Security Dilemma, John Allen Gay and A.J. Manuzzi interviewed Sabreena Croteau. Sabreena is a Research Fellow at Defense Priorities and recently defended her dissertation to earn her doctorate in Political Science from the University of Chicago. Her dissertation, titled “Security the Seas: The Political Economy of Naval Force Structure,” uses an economic approach to examine the variance in the development of naval power across states, and intends to draw policy-relevant implications for U.S. grand strategy, the pivot to Asia, and competition with China as a rising economic power. Our conversation discussed how economic considerations influence how great powers construct their navies, how U.S. policymakers should think about sea lanes, and China and Russia's Arctic ambitions.
On this week's episode of Security Dilemma, John Allen Gay and A.J. Manuzzi spoke with Aude Darnal, a Research Analyst and Project Manager at the Stimson Center, and the founder and leader of the Global South in the World Order Project — hosted by the Reimagining US Grand Strategy Program. Prior to joining Stimson, Aude served as an associate director at the Atlantic Council’s New American Engagement Initiative. She is originally from Martinique, in the French Caribbean.
Our conversation discussed how Global South countries are responding to the Trump Administration in light of its recent tariffs and foreign aid cuts, as well as how U.S. grand strategy can meet the moment in an increasingly multipolar world.
"Order of Oppression" by Tim Murithi
Stimson's Global South in the World Order Project site
Is a career in political risk right for you? On March 13, JQAS recorded a webinar about careers in the private geopolitical risk sector with several alumni of the Society. The panelists and co-hosts John Allen Gay and Julie Thompson-Gomez discussed what a typical day in the life for someone in the industry looks like, how prospective applicants can be competitive candidates for roles in the space, and various tips and tricks for navigating careers in this emergent sector. Panelist bios are as follows:Natalie Armbruster is a Senior Middle East Intelligence Researcher at Seerist. She is a former Research Associate at Defense Priorities.John Goodnight is the Chief of Staff at John Hulsman Enterprises. Prior to this role, he was the Southern Regional Director at JQAS.Scarlett Kennedy is an Analyst at Valens Global, as well as an alumna of the Society's Marcellus Policy Fellowship.
On this week's episode of Security Dilemma, John Allen Gay and A.J. Manuzzi interview Spencer Ackerman, a Pulitzer Prize and National Magazine Award-winning reporter, who has covered the War on Terror and U.S. foreign policy for The New Republic, Wired, The Guardian, The Daily Beast, and Zeteo. He is also the author of Reign of Terror: How the 9/11 Era Destabilized America and Produced Trump and the Forever Wars newsletter, and he is currently writing the new Iron Man series for Marvel Comics and The Torture and Deliverance of Majid Khan. Our conversation discussed the impact of the GWOT on U.S. politics, whether the GWOT is actually over, and the Biden Administration's foreign policy legacy.
On this week's episode of Security Dilemma, John Allen Gay and A.J. Manuzzi interview Sarang Shidore, the director of the Global South Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. Our conversation discussed whether interests, ideology, or both drive the policies of some Global South states, whether China is part of the Global South, and what a better approach to the U.S.-Philippines alliance might look like.
Sarang Shidore's new Quincy Institute explainer on the U.S.-Philippines alliance: https://quincyinst.org/research/defending-without-provoking-the-united-states-and-the-philippines-in-the-south-china-sea/
On this week's episode of Security Dilemma, John Allen Gay and A.J. Manuzzi interview Skip Shelton, a career foreign policy professional with experience in defense, diplomacy, and development about the unique career journey that brought him from coordinating elections in Iraq and building roads in Afghanistan to working on Somalia's security assistance and conflict monitoring in Ukraine. The conversation also touches on how those experiences shaped Shelton's own views on American foreign policy.
On this week's episode of Security Dilemma, John Allen Gay and A.J. Manuzzi interview John Schuessler, Associate Professor in the Department of International Affairs and Co-Director of the Albritton Center for Grand Strategy at Texas A&M University's Bush School of Government and Public Service. Dr. Schuessler is the author of Deceit on the Road to War: Presidents, Politics, and American Democracy. Our conversation explored whether offshore balancing is a viable grand strategy, examined the prospects of Iranian or Chinese regional hegemony and its impact on U.S. security, and discussed cases of presidential deceit during war.
On this week's episode ofSecurity Dilemma, John Allen Gay and A.J. Manuzzi interview Jeremy Shapiro, Research Director of the European Council on Foreign Relations. Dr. Shapiro was previously a fellow at the Brookings Institution, as well as a member of the State Department's policy planning staff, where he advised the Secretary of State on U.S. policy in North Africa and the Levant. He also served as a senior advisor to the Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs during the Obama Administration. This week's conversation discusses Dr. Shapiro's piece describing the three main foreign policy factions in the Republican Party, European security, and the foreign policy legacy of the Biden Administration.
"Polarised power: The three Republican ‘tribes’ that could define America’s relationship with the world"
John Allen Gay and A.J. Manuzzi interview Rose Kelanic, Director of the Middle East Program at Defense Priorities, discussing why Washington should take a "wait-and-see" approach to Syria's new government, President Trump's new Executive Orders on energy security, and whether the U.S. military needs to be in the Persian Gulf for oil.
This episode was recorded on January 30, 2025.
Dr. Kelanic's Defense Priorities explainer: https://www.defensepriorities.org/briefs/wait-and-see-a-post-assad-syria/
John Allen Gay and A.J. Manuzzi discuss their expectations for foreign policy in 2025, including how the incoming Trump Administration could approach the Middle East, China, Europe, Latin America, and more.
Link to Matt Duss's piece in The Guardian
Recorded 1/10/2025
John Allen Gay and A.J. Manuzzi interview Janet Abou-Elias and Lillian Mauldin, co-founders of Women for Weapons Trade Transparency and Research Fellows at the Center for International Policy. Janet is also an alumna of the Society's Marcellus Policy Fellowship, for which she wrote a policy analysis on the War Reserve Stockpile Allies-Israel.
Our conversation, recorded in mid-November 2024, focused on arms transfers under the Trump Administration, the Biden Administration's arming of Israel in the Gaza conflict, and how War on Terror/War on Drugs era DoD authorities contribute to the militarization of the police.
Furthermore, we are now accepting applications for the upcoming Spring 2025 cohort of the Marcellus Policy Fellowship through January 13. This program is intended for students and early-career professionals interested in realism and restraint and looking to advance in the national security career space. The program bolsters the policy analysis and writing skills of participants, as well as unites them with a cohort of like-minded professionals under the tutelage of JQAS staff and expert guest speakers. Apply today!
John Allen Gay and A.J. Manuzzi interview Dan Spokojny, a former U.S. Foreign Service Officer and the founder of fp21, a think tank devoted to promoting more evidence and learning based foreign policy processes. This conversation discussed knowledge management, groupthink, U.S. policy processes, and efforts at State Department reform.
You can learn more about fp21 here: https://www.fp21.org/
John Allen Gay and A.J. Manuzzi interview Jennifer Kavanagh, a Senior Fellow and the Director of Military Analysis at Defense Priorities, discussing the state of the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.
This episode was recorded on October 25, 2024
John Allen Gay and A.J. Manuzzi interview Kelly Grieco, a Senior Fellow at the Stimson Center's Reimagining US Grand Strategy Program, discussing geography and the regional balance of power in East Asia, proposals for an "Asian NATO," the Air Force's ongoing modernization efforts, and more.
John Allen Gay and A.J. Manuzzi interview Christopher Shell, a Fellow in the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Un-Diplomatic episode
Carnegie survey on "Race, Foreign Policy, and the 2024 Presidential Election"
John Allen Gay and A.J. Manuzzi interview Ari Tolany, Director of the Security Assistance, Technology and the Arms Trade program at the Center for International Policy.
AJ Manuzzi and John Allen Gay have a conversation with Peter Harris, Associate Professor of Political Science at Colorado State University in Fort Collins and Non-Resident Fellow at the think tank Defense Priorities. Dr. Harris’s teaching and research focuses on international security and U.S. foreign policy. He received his PhD in Government from the University of Texas at Austin, where he was also a graduate fellow of the Clements Center for National Security. His work has appeared in journals including Asian Security, Chinese Journal of International Politics, International Affairs, Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs, Survival, and Political Science Quarterly. He is also the author of the forthcoming book Why America Can’t Retrench (And How it Might).
Note - this episode was recorded September 26th, before the news about the Chagos islands.
Dr. Harris's "Broken Nest" Taiwan article
Dr. Harris on the Chagos Islands
This week on Security Dilemma, Patrick Carver Fox and John Allen Gay have a conversation with Dr. William Ruger – the President of the American Institute for Economic Research and the Chair of the Board of Directors of the John Quincy Adams Society. Dr. Ruger is a long-time advocate for realist foreign policy, a decorated veteran of the war in Afghanistan and an officer in the U.S. Navy Reserves, in addition to being President Donald Trump’s nominee for U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan in 2020. Dr. Ruger was previously the Vice President of Research and Policy at the Charles Koch Institute, where he played a big role in building the realism and restraint movement. Our conversation today ranges from alliances to grand strategy principles to the war in Afghanistan and military Keynesianism. Dr. Ruger's recent article on the national debt
This week, we have a live recording of one of our JQAS summer conference sessions - "Redteaming Restraint with Dr. Eugene Gholz and Dr. Michael Desch". In it, John Allen Gay and our conference participants asked some of the most challenging questions they had about restraint in U.S. foreign policy and Dr. Gholz and Dr. Desch answered them.
Note: This is our first live recording, so there are a few audio issues. Additionally, to preserve the anonymity of conference participants and their questions, we're dubbing their question with Patrick's voice but trying to ask the question verbatim.
Dr. Michael C. Desch is Packey J. Dee Professor of International Relations at the University of Notre Dame and Brian and Jeannelle Brady Family Director of the Notre Dame International Security Center.
Dr. Eugene Gholz is an associate professor of political science at the University of Notre Dame. He co-wrote a well-known International Security article that coined the term “restraint” as a proposed grand strategy for the United States. From 2010-2012, he served in the Pentagon as Senior Advisor to the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Manufacturing and Industrial Base Policy.
This week on Security Dilemma, Patrick Carver Fox and A.J. Manuzzi spoke about Haiti with Jake Johnston, Senior Research Associate at the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington DC. Jake is the lead author of CEPR's Haiti: Relief and Reconstruction blog and the author of the book Aid State: Elite Panic, Disaster Capitalism and the Battle to Control Haiti. We spoke about the humanitarian military intervention there, the state of the island and international efforts to promote democracy in Haiti.
This week on Security Dilemma, Patrick Carver Fox and John Allen Gay spoke with Mike DiMino and Dan Caldwell of Defense Priorities. Mike is a fellow at Defense Priorities, a former career CIA military analyst and counterterrorism officer who’s worked on everything from operational assignments overseas to the EUCOM to the President’s Daily Brief. Dan is a public policy advisor at Defense Priorities and a veteran of the United States Marine Corps, having deployed to Iraq and conducted operations in Al Anbar and Ninawa provinces. Today, we’re going to be talking about the state of democracy in Ukraine, manpower issues and the Kherson front, demographics in Ukraine, escalation between Israel and Hezbollah and the pathway out of American primacy in the Middle East.
Check out Mike's recent explainer on Ukraine
Check out the letter John and Dan signed
Check out the EU studies on Ukraine's demographics
This week on Security Dilemma, Patrick Carver Fox and A.J. Manuzzi spoke with Dr. Nathaniel Powell, West Africa Analyst at Oxford Analytica. Dr. Powell is the author of France’s Wars in Chad: Military Intervention and Decolonization in Africa, an honorary researcher at Lancaster University’s Centre for War and Diplomacy. Our conversation today ranges from France's history in the region to intelligence failures in Niger to the reality about Russian involvement in the region.
Recent WOTR Essay on Washington and Niger
Recent WOTR Essay on France and Mali
This week on Security Dilemma, Patrick Carver Fox and AJ Manuzzi spoke with Ali Wyne, Senior Research and Advocacy Advisor on U.S.-China at International Crisis Group. Ali analyzes the development of U.S. policy toward China and formulates ICG recommendations for managing crises and preventing conflicts between Washington and Beijing. He has previously worked at the Carnegie Endowment, State Department, RAND Corporation and Eurasia Group. He’s the author of several books, including a biography of Lee Kuan Yew and most recently America’s Great Power Opportunity: Revitalizing U.S. Foreign Policy to Meet the Challenges of Strategic Competition.Check out America's Great Power Opportunity
This week on Security Dilemma, Patrick Carver Fox and John Allen Gay spoke with Dr. James Acton, co-director of the Carnegie Endowment’s Nuclear Policy Program.
Dr. Acton has a PhD in theoretical physics from Cambridge and he’s testified to the House Armed Services Committee, House Appropriations Committee and US-China Economic and Security Review Commission. He’s an expert in hypersonic weapons and he’s currently writing a book on the nuclear escalation risks of advanced non-nuclear weapons.
Our conversation touches on the nuclear escalation risks of the war between Russia and Ukraine, the state of U.S. nuclear targeting policy, the role of the "three body problem" on nuclear proliferation in a multipolar world and proliferation risks with American allies. Dr. Acton's essay on counterforce
Apply to Progressive Talent Pipeline
Apply to KAP
This week on Security Dilemma, Patrick Carver Fox and John Allen Gay spoke with Julia Gledhill, a Research Associate at the Stimson Center and a former JQAS chapter leader who's a rising star in DC tracking Pentagon spending, military contracting and weapons acquisition. She's appeared on NPR, More Perfect Union and she's now a co-host on the newest version of the Un-Diplomatic Podcast. She joins us to talk about Pentagon budget flexibility reform, behavior from U.S. defense contractors, the relationship between the defense budget and strategy and more!
Further Reading
Julia's reporting on defense contractor finances
Julia's reporting on Congress and defense acquisition
Julia's essay on PPBE Reform
Julia's essay on the Pentagon audit
Apply to the Progressive Talent Pipeline
Apply to the Koch Associate Program
This week on Security Dilemma, Patrick Carver Fox and John Allen Gay spoke with Dr. Brandon Valeriano, a professor at Seton Hall University. Dr. Valeriano is a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Marine Corps University as a Senior Advisor to the Cyberspace Solarium Commission 2.0 and he’s additionally written a number of books on the subject, including CyberStrategy: The Evolving Character of Power and Coersion in 2018. Today, we talk about the state of modern cybersecurity, hackers as proxy-forces, K-pop's role in Asian geo-politics and what a Netflix series can teach us about the state of Chinese soft power.
Article on Boy Bands
Article on The 3 Body Problem
Article on De-Escalation and Cyber
This week on Security Dilemma, Patrick Carver Fox and John Allen Gay spoke with Dr. Joshua Shifrinson, a professor at the University of Maryland, non-resident senior fellow at the Cato Institute and author of Rising Titans, Falling Giants. This was a great conversation about the rise and fall of great powers, American involvement in the war in Ukraine and the future of U.S. European politics.
Dr. Shifrinson's essay on Ukraine with Ashford & Wertheim
Dr. Shifrinson's essay on multipolarity in Foreign Affairs
This week on Security Dilemma, Patrick Carver Fox and John Allen Gay had a conversation with Christopher McCallion, a Fellow at Defense Priorities. We talk all about grand strategy, from hegemonic stability theory to reckless driving from allies and more.
Read Shield of the Republic
Read The Balance of Power
On this episode of Security Dilemma, we have our first return guest on the show - Dr. Stephen Wertheim. Patrick Carver Fox and John Allen Gay joined him at his offices at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace to discuss Ukraine, NATO, restraint, "retrenchment" and the foreign policy implications of the 2024 elections. After the release of this episode, Dr. Wertheim released an essay in Foreign Policy on Ukraine, so you can check that out as well! Tune in for a great episode!
This week on Security Dilemma, Patrick Carver Fox and John Allen Gay spoke with Reid Smith, Vice President of Foreign Policy at StandTogether. Reid is an important advocate for realism and restraint in U.S. foreign policy, coordinating support for many of the researchers, and academics featured on this show. This episode dives into the premises of restraint, the recent congressional fight over aid to Ukraine, the concept of a "new Cold War" and more.
Reid's article on Ukraine aid
Reid's article on "anti-strategy"
This week on Security Dilemma, Patrick Carver Fox and Michael D. Culp interview Brandan P. Buck, a historian of right-wing opposition to U.S. foreign policy and the national security state through the Cold War.
We talk about the origins of the "Old Right" through the first World War, the perspective they offered in the rise of American internationalism in the second World War, their decline around the Vietnam War and the state of right-wing opposition to U.S. imperialism through the Global War on Terror.
Brandan P. Buck is a Ph.D. candidate at George Mason University. He’s previous served with the U.S. Army and National Geospatial Intelligence Agency.
This week on Security Dilemma, Patrick Carver Fox and John Allen Gay interviewed Dr. Osamah Khalil, the author of the new book A World Of Enemies: America's Wars at Home and Abroad from Kennedy to Biden. This book covers the history of how endless wars have affected American domestic policy, from Vietnam and COINTELPRO to the Global War on Terror.
Dr. Khalil is a history professor at Syracuse University and the author of America's Dream Palace: Middle East Expertise and the Rise of the National Security State, which was named the Best Book of 2017 by Foreign Affairs magazine. This is his second book and it came out recently on April 16th.
This episode is also announcing a new JQAS reading group - if you're eligible and sign up in time, we'll send you a copy of A World Of Enemies. If you're in DC, join us for a group conversation over dinner. If not, hop on a zoom call to discuss the book.
Sign up for the JQAS reading group.
Purchase A World Of Enemies.
Purchase America's Dream Palace.
This week on Security Dilemma, John Allen Gay and Patrick Carver Fox talk with John Byrnes and Tyler Koteskey of Concerned Veterans for America. This episode covers how veteran communities have been affected by the Global War on Terror, the use and misuse of reservists and national guardsmen, naval procurement and more.
John Byrnes is strategic director for Concerned Veterans for America. He joined the marine corps in 1991 out of high school and served four years, deployed to Somalia in 1993. He joined the New York National Guard, serving at ground zero after the September 11th terrorist attacks and was deployed to both Iraq and Afghanistan before retiring from the National Guard in 2018.
Tyler Koteskey is policy director for Concerned Veterans for America, a Fall 2020 Marcellus Policy Fellow with JQAS and now writes about key national security issues including Ukraine Aid, naval policy and more.
Tyler's article on Navy VLS SystemsTyler's article on Ukraine Aid
(This is the first time we've had two guests and the first time we've recorded in the same room with them, so apologies for any audio inconsistencies.)
This afternoon, John Allen Gay sat down to give his thoughts on recent developments in the Middle East and the threat of Iranian retaliation.
John Allen Gay is the Executive Director of The John Quincy Adams Society, Security Dilemma host and co-author of War With Iran: Political, Military and Economic Consequences, published in 2013.
This week on Security Dilemma, John Allen Gay and Patrick Carver Fox speak with Dr. Gregory Brew about the changing paradigms of energy markets, from "the great de-risking" to the green energy transition, and what all this means for U.S. national security. Dr. Brew is an analyst at the Eurasia Group and a researcher on the formation of the global oil economy and contemporary energy transition.
Dr. Brew's new piece in War on the Rocks.Apply to the JQAS Summer Conference by May 7th!
This week on Security Dilemma, John Allen Gay and Patrick Carver Fox spoke with Dr. Paul R. Pillar, a 28-year veteran of the Central Intelligence Agency who served as the National Intelligence Officer for the Near East and South Asia from 2000 to 2005.
A Vietnam veteran, he rose to serve as the Executive Assistant to CIA Director William Webster, the Deputy Director of the CIA Counterterrorism Center and now is a valuable critic of U.S. foreign policy as a non-resident fellow at Georgetown University’s Center for Security Studies.
Today, we’re going to talk about Israeli airstrikes on Iranian diplomatic facilities in Damascus, tensions with Hezbollah, the Biden Administration's approach to the offensive in Gaza, the prospect of Israeli elections and more.
This week on Security Dilemma, Patrick Carver Fox and A.J. Manuzzi interview Dr. Jon Hoffman, a policy analyst in defense and foreign policy at the Cato Institute. He holds a PhD in political science from George Mason, part of the Middle East Policy Council’s “40 under 40” and he writes about Middle East geopolitics in publications like Foreign Policy, The Washington Post and The National Interest.
In this episode, we cover the state of the war in Gaza, the politics of surrounding countries like Egypt, Syria and Saudi Arabia and the future of U.S. policy in the Middle East.
Dr. Hoffman's most recent essay in Foreign Policy
This week on Security Dilemma, Patrick Carver Fox and John Allen Gay interview Dr. Dale Copeland, a professor at the University of Virginia. Dr. Copeland recently published a new book called A World Safe for Commerce: American Foreign Policy From The Revolution To The Rise of China. At UVA, Dr. Copeland studies the impact of the rise and decline of economic and military power on state behavior. He’s additionally authored Economic Interdependence and War (2015) and The Origins of Major War (2000).
You can order A World Safe For Commerce here.
This week on Security Dilemma, Patrick Carver Fox and John Allen Gay interview Murtaza Hussain, a writer at The Intercept. He's broken major stories about America's involvement in Pakistani politics and we talk about that along with humanitarian aid in Gaza, airstrikes on the Houthis, the Iranian dissident group MEK and the FBI's entrapment of teenagers.
You can check out Murtaza's reporting here.
The original report on the Pakistani "cypher".
The arrest of Humzah Mashkoor.
This week on Security Dilemma, Patrick Carver Fox and John Allen Gay interviewed James A. Siebens, a Fellow at the Stimson Center's Reimagining U.S. Grand Strategy program. He leads Stimson's Defense Strategy and Planning project and he’s the editor of China’s Use of Armed Coercion, a 2023 study on China’s use of military and paramilitary forces. Our conversation covers the South China Sea and China’s use of “military operations other than war”.
This week on Security Dilemma, Patrick Carver Fox and A.J. Manuzzi interviewed Derek Davison of Foreign Exchanges and American Prestige. We talk about his analysis of American policy in the Middle East, from the true intentions of the Obama Administration in the Arab Spring to the current relationship between the United States and the Pakistani military.
This week on Security Dilemma, Patrick Carver Fox and A.J. Manuzzi interviewed John Ramming Chappell, an Advocacy and Legal Fellow at the Center for Civilians in Conflict's U.S. program. Our conversation today ranged from the laws that regulate arms sales and security assistance and how often the United States follows its own laws in practice.
This week on Security Dilemma, we spoke with Dr. Jon Askonas about the technology of warfare, the state of the defense industry and war in Eastern Europe. Dr. Askonas is a professor of Political Science at Catholic University of America and a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for American Innovation.Dr. Askonas's article on the Discord Leaks
Dr. Askonas's article on Secrecy and Government
This week on Security Dilemma, we spoke with Rep. Warren Davidson, a Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee representing Ohio's 8th District. Rep. Davidson is a veteran of the Army Rangers and the 101st Airborne. Our conversation today covered his perspective on aid to Israel, American strikes on Houthis in Yemen, the on-going conflict over aid to Ukraine and more.
This week on Security Dilemma, Patrick Carver Fox and AJ Manuzzi interview Dr. Aileen Teague, a professor at Texas A&M’s Bush School and a non-resident fellow at the Quincy Institute about her work covering Mexico and its relationship with American national security. This conversation is based on her paper for the Quincy Institute - Responsibly Demilitarizing U.S.–Mexico Bilateral Security Relations.
This week on Security Dilemma, Patrick Carver Fox and John Allen Gay interview Dr. John Hulsman, a political risk consultant and author of The Last Best Hope: A History of American Realism.
Prior to his work in political risk, Dr. Hulsman served as Fellow in European Policy Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Senior Research Fellow in Geopolitics and Foreign Policy at the Heritage Foundation for seven years. He is a Life Member of the US Council on Foreign Relations, the author of all or part of 14 books, has given over 1560 interviews, written over 1110 articles, prepared over 1360 briefings, and delivered more than 620 speeches on global political risk and foreign policy for blue-chip corporations and governments around the world.
Purchase The Last Best Hope: A History of American Realism
Check out Dr. Hulsman's Substack
Learn more about John Hulsman Enterprises
What is the John Quincy Adams Society? This week, Security Dilemma hosts John Allen Gay and Patrick Carver Fox have a conversation about the organization behind programs like Security Dilemma, the Marcellus Policy Fellowship, the Strategic Leaders Fellowship and so much more. Check out our website for more details and sign-up for the weekly JQAS newsletter for regular job postings and information about JQAS events.
This week on Security Dilemma, Patrick Carver Fox and John Allen Gay interview Yameen Huq, the Director of Cybersecurity at the Aspen Institute. We discuss artificial intelligence, its impact on cybersecurity and implications for American national security. Our conversation today is based on Yameen's new report "Envisioning Cyber Futures with AI". It's a quick read and one of the most interesting papers you'll find about AI!
This week on Security Dilemma, Patrick Carver Fox and John Allen Gay interview Dr. Christopher Preble, Director of the Reimagining Grand Strategy Program at the Stimson Center. We discuss the reasons why the assumptions of liberal internationalism are unsustainable and we talk about Dr. Preble's upcoming paper on redeveloping U.S. foreign policy for an uncertain future.
Christopher Preble is the Senior Fellow and Director of the Reimagining US Grand Strategy program at the Stimson Center. Prior to joining the Stimson Center, he served as Co-Director of the Atlantic Council’s New American Engagement Initiative. In his role, he leads a team of scholars who challenge prevailing assumptions surrounding US foreign policy, and who offer a range of policy options that go beyond the use of force and coercion. His own work focuses on the history of US foreign policy, contemporary US grand strategy and military force posture, alliance relations, and the intersection of trade and national security.
Preble is the author of four books, including Peace, War, and Liberty: Understanding U.S. Foreign Policy (Cato Institute, 2019); and The Power Problem: How American Military Dominance Makes Us Less Safe, Less Prosperous, and Less Free (Cornell University Press, 2009). He co-authored, with John Glaser and A. Trevor Thrall, Fuel to the Fire: How Trump Made America’s Broken Foreign Policy even Worse and How We Can Recover (Cato Institute, 2019), and he has also co-edited several other books and monographs, including A Dangerous World? Threat Perception and U.S. National Security (Cato Institute, 2014), with John Mueller. His work has appeared in major publications including the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times, the Financial Times, Survival, Foreign Policy, National Review, and The National Interest, and he is a frequent guest on television and radio.
In addition to his work at the Stimson Center, Preble co-hosts the “Net Assessment” podcast in the War on the Rocks network, and he teaches the US Foreign Policy elective at the University of California, Washington Center. He has also taught history at St. Cloud State University and Temple University. He is a life member of the Council on Foreign Relations.
Preble was vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute from 2011 to 2020, and director of foreign policy studies from 2003 to 2011. Preble was a commissioned officer in the US Navy, and served aboard the USS Ticonderoga (CG-47) from 1990 to 1993.
This week on Security Dilemma, Patrick Carver Fox and John Allen Gay discuss burden-sharing with Dr. Brian D. Blankenship, a professor at the University of Miami. We explore a number of the topics covered in Dr. Blankenship's new book, The Burden-Sharing Dilemma: Coersive Diplomacy in U.S. Alliance Politics.
Dr. Blankenship's book is available here.
You can read an excerpt from his book here.
This week on Security Dilemma, John Allen Gay and Scott McCann interviewed progressive thinker and MENA policy expert Matt Duss. Matthew Duss is the Executive Vice-President at the Center for International Policy. He served as foreign policy adviser to Senator Bernie Sanders from 2017-2022 and the president of the Foundation for Middle East Peace. Our conversation covers his recent essay in Foreign Affairs on resolving the conflict in Gaza but questions the value of the Abraham Accords, explores the nature of including Hamas in negotiations and more.
Matt Duss's most recent piece in The New Republic.
Recent Washington Post column by David Ignatius972 Essay "Mass Assassination Factory"
This week on Security Dilemma, Patrick Carver Fox and John Allen Gay interviewed the John Quincy Adams Society's president - Dr. David C. Hendrickson. Dr. Hendrickson is president of the John Quincy Adams Society and professor emeritus of political science at Colorado College. He has written many books on U.S. foreign policy, including Republic in Peril: American Empire and the Liberal Tradition (Oxford, 2018), Union, Nation, or Empire: The American Debate over International Relations, 1789-1941 (University Press of Kansas, 2009) and Peace Pact: The Lost World of the American Founding (University Press of Kansas, 2003). His Ph.D. is from Johns Hopkins University.Our conversation today covers a lot of his recent essays about alliance politics and conflict in Gaza. We spend a lot of time covering his essay in The American Conservative "Endgame for Gaza" but we also address his recent article on alliances and an early article on the role of the state.
You can read Dr. Hendrickson and John Allen Gay's writing about the legacy of Henry Kissinger and Dr. Hendrickson's most recent writing on Gaza as well.
The Arab American poll numbers John cited were quoted from Shadi Hamid's November 29 column. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/11/29/biden-arab-americans-vote-2024-palestinians-israel/
This week on Security Dilemma, Patrick Carver Fox and John Allen Gay discuss the conflict in Gaza and American strategy in the Middle East with Michael DiMino of Defense Priorities.
Michael is a former career CIA military analyst and counterterrorism officer, serving in operational assignments overseas and authoring key strategic intelligence assessments for the President’s Daily Brief. He has advised the Joint Chiefs of Staff, United States European Command and Sen. John McCain. Michael is going to be speaking with us about the conflict in Gaza and American strategy in the Middle East.
This week on Security Dilemma, Patrick Carver Fox and John Allen Gay discuss the politics of Iran and it's influence on the Middle East with Iran expert Negar Mortazavi. Negar is a Senior Fellow at the Center for International Policy, an award-winning journalist and host of the Iran podcast. Our conversation was recorded on November 20th, 2023. This conversation covers Iran's relationship with its proxies, how Iran views the conflict in Gaza and the state of Iranian politics.
This week on Security Dilemma, Patrick Carver Fox and John Allen Gay discuss weapons systems in the air, sea and land with former Marine Dan Grazier. Dan is a Senior Defense Policy Fellow at the Project on Government Oversight where he analyzes defense procurement, and our conversation covers naval shipbuilding, next generation air dominance, Marine Corps combined arms doctrine and more!
This week on Security Dilemma, Patrick Carver Fox and John Allen Gay discuss Taiwanese security and America's role in the Taiwan Strait with Eric Gomez. Eric Gomez is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, with an expertise on a range of defense issues including the U.S. military budget, force posture, arms control, and nuclear stability in East Asia. Eric is joining us today because he has a new piece with the Cato Institute out as of today called Taiwan’s Urgent Need for Asymmetric Defense.
Check out his new paper and this accompanying conversation!
This week on Security Dilemma, we're taking an episode to explore the history of the namesake for The John Quincy Adams Society with a historian who has a new book out on the subject. John Allen Gay has a conversation with Jeffrey A. Denman about his new book - John Quincy Adams, Reluctant Abolitionist.
The words of John Quincy Adams have inspired foreign policy thinkers for generations, and they continue to inspire today.
Wherever the standard of freedom and independence has been or shall be unfurled, there will [America’s] heart, her benedictions and her prayers be. But she goes not abroad in search of monsters to destroy. She is the well-wisher to the freedom and independence of all. She is the champion and vindicator only of her own." - John Quincy Adams, 1821
But how did the sixth president, one of the most vocal American antebellum political figures opposing both slavery and foreign intervention abroad, actually think about slavery? We explore that question today.
You can order the book here.
This week, Patrick C. Fox and John Allen Gay interview Doug Bandow, a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute. As a young lawyer, he worked as a Special Assistant to President Ronald Reagan. Doug Bandow began working with the Cato Institute in 1982 and he is a Senior Fellow there today. He is widely published; he’s written at least three books focused on the Korean Peninsula and today he has a weekly column at The American Conservative.
Our conversation today covers South Korean politics, East Asia's balance of power, the future of America's role in Europe, the foreign policy legacy of Ronald Reagan and the pursuit of religious liberty in policymaking.
This week, Patrick C. Fox and guest host Scott McCann interview Dr. Brian Finucane, a Senior Adviser at International Crisis Group and a former Legal Adviser for the State Department.
This episode was recorded on October 19th, 2023 and discusses war powers as they affect the Gaza conflict, intervention in Mexico and strategic ambiguity in Taiwan. We also address specifics like the Geneva convention's Protocol 1, the 127 echo program, foreign policy's "supreme court" and more!
This week, Patrick C. Fox and John Allen Gay interview Elizabeth Beavers, a Vice President at the Quincy Institute, an experienced advocate for progressive foreign policy reform and an expert on national security law.
In this conversation, we cover the legacy of Sen. Feinstein, legal justifications for proxy wars, American strategy in North Korea, Congress's role in foreign policy and the threat of the climate crisis.
This week, Patrick C. Fox and John Allen Gay interview Daniel DePetris, a fellow at Defense Priorities and a syndicated foreign affairs columnist at the Chicago Tribune.
In this conversation, we cover the prospect of intervening in Mexico, tensions between India and Canada, America's role in Somalia and the Abraham Accords.
This week, Patrick C. Fox and John Allen Gay interview Dr. Jordan Cohen, an expert on arms sales policy at the Cato Institute. In this conversation we cover cluster munitions in Ukraine, the policy mechanisms of aid to Taiwan and alliance politics with arms sales in the Middle East.
Dr. Cohen's War on the Rocks article
Dr. Cohen on aid to Taiwan
Dr. Cohen on tracking U.S. weapons
This week, Patrick C. Fox and John Allen Gay interview Matthew Petti, a young independent journalist covering the Middle East. In this conversation we cover the origins of the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, America's ongoing presence and path out of Syria, the context of the Iranian hostage exchange and the "spaghetti logic" of Henry Kissinger's realism.
Matthew Petti's Substack
Matthew's essay on Kissinger and Realism
This week, Patrick C. Fox and John Allen Gay interview Dr. Alexander Thurston, an expert on conflicts, jihadism and stability in West Africa. Dr. Alex Thurston is a professor at the University of Cincinnati and a non-resident fellow at the Quincy Institute. This conversation covers sources of instability ranging from the French presence to the American intervention in Libya along with a conversation about the politics of the region, ranging from Niger's path to dictatorship, Nigeria's new leadership and the comparatively stable situations in Senegal and Chad.
This week, Patrick C. Fox and co-host John Allen Gay interview Dr. Stephen Wertheim, a diplomatic historian and Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Dr. Wertheim is a leading voice on foreign policy for the left, with essays in the New York Times and Foreign Affairs and appearances on programs including CNN and NPR. Our conversation covers the left's relationship with realism, Dr. Wertheim's research on America's changing perception of their role in the world and progressive interpretations of the rise of great power competition and BRICS.
This week, Patrick C. Fox and guest co-host A.J. Manuzzi interview Dr. Paul Heer, a decorated former intelligence official and National Intelligence Officer for East Asia from 2007 to 2015. Now a Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, Dr. Heer's book Mr. X and the Pacific was just released in paperback. Our conversation covers how China and Xi Jinping think, the foreign policy legacy of George F. Kennan and the role that the intelligence community should play in foreign policy.
This week, Patrick C. Fox and guest co-host A.J. Manuzzi interview Elizabeth Shackelford, a Senior Fellow at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. Our conversation covers the practice of diplomacy in U.S. foreign policy, conflict in Somalia, the coup in Niger and tensions in Southern Africa.
For a bonus episode, Security Dilemma interviewed Dan Caldwell, a VP at the Center for Renewing America and a conservative veteran foreign policy advocate. We recorded this episode on August 24th, the morning after the first GOP primary debate. Our conversation covers the foreign policy of a second Trump administration, conservative rhetoric about Europe and the southern border, the foreign policy legacy of Ronald Reagan and engagement with China.
This week, Security Dilemma interviewed Dr. David Kang, a professor at the University of Southern California. Our conversation covers the application of realism to the Asian peace, China's current and future role in the world, tensions on the Korean Peninsula, what the Philippines teaches us about alliances, India's position in Asia and soccer diplomacy.
This week, Security Dilemma interviewed Dr. Sumantra Maitra of The American Conservative and the Center for Renewing America. Our conversation covers the European tradition of realism, a conservative realist approach to competition with China and a critical perspective on India.
Dr. Maitra on pivoting from Europe - https://americarenewing.com/issues/policy-brief-pivoting-the-us-away-from-europe-to-a-dormant-nato/
Dr. Maitra on India - https://www.theamericanconservative.com/indias-majoritarian-turn/
This week, Security Dilemma interviewed the Stimson Center's Dr. Emma Ashford, a key advocate for realism and restraint in U.S. foreign policy. Emma spoke about energy politics, grand strategy and advice for future foreign policy practitioners.
This week, Security Dilemma interviewed the the Cato Institute's director of defense and foreign policy studies - Justin Logan. Justin is a highly regarded voice in the foreign policy thinktank space, and he offered his analysis on China policy, NATO expansion and fentanyl.
Join dissident foreign policy academic Dr. Van Jackson for a conversation about the Indo-Pacific, nuclear policy and progressive foreign policy. Dr. Jackson is a Senior Lecturer at Victoria University of Wellington, the host of the Un-Diplomatic Podcast and the author of Pacific Power Paradox.
Jason Beardsley, a former U.S. military veteran and Director of Veterans Affairs at Stand Together, shares his insights on a range of national security issues. Beardsley's diverse background and experiences in the military provide a unique perspective on the challenges and complexities facing the United States in the realm of national security. The non-conventional footprint of SOF provides advantages in certain situations, but it is crucial to ensure that their use is nested under regional or higher-level commanders and connected to the grand strategy of the United States. Strategic alignment and clear objectives are key to maximizing the effectiveness of special operations while avoiding the perception that they are a substitute for broader strategic planning.
Join legendary foreign policy academic Dr. Stephen Walt in a tour of modern national security issues. Dr. Walt is a professor at Harvard's Kennedy School, a columnist at Foreign Policy, and the author of The Origin of Alliances, The Hell of Good Intentions, and many more books.
Lyle Jeremy Rubin deployed to Afghanistan in 2010 as a committed neoconservative. His experience serving there brought him face to face with the realities of war and empire. His book Pain is Weakness Leaving the Body: A Marine's Unbecoming tells the story of how he changed and came to support restraint in U.S. foreign policy. The Society's Patrick C. Fox interviews Rubin.
The Russian assault on Ukraine has created a surge of support for liberal interventionism in the West, prompting one of that current's most prominent exponents to suggest that a brief moment of foreign policy restraint was at an end. Not so, countered Yale historian Michael Brenes: "Restrainers are a more visible, organized bloc that at any time in recent memory." In fact, he argued, the war showed the urgency of developing a positive vision for U.S. strategic restraint - not merely opposing the errors of the hawks, but advancing alternative visions of global order.
What does 2023 hold for the war in Ukraine? Does Russia have the will and ability to slog on another year? Can Ukraine regain its lost territory? Will Western states remain relatively unified on providing aid? Is peace possible? We spoke with Christopher Chivvis, director of the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and former National Intelligence Officer for Europe.
While all eyes are on Iran's protests, the country has advanced closer than ever to a nuclear weapon. Safeguards on the program are weak in the aftermath of the U.S. withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal. Where do things stand, and where are they going? We hear from Kelsey Davenport, Director for Nonproliferation Policy at the Arms Control Association, where she focuses on the nuclear and missile programs in Iran, North Korea, India, and Pakistan and on international efforts to prevent proliferation and nuclear terrorism.
How does the government get advice on policy in the Middle East? It's changed over time. America took a much larger role in the region after World War II, and needed more regional experts than it had. The government began funding area studies programs in academia. Yet it didn't like the advice it was getting from universities - and after the campus chaos of the 1960s, the academy wasn't so excited either. Thus, think tanks, often closely tied to the government, stepped in, providing analysis that closely aligned with U.S. goals and priorities and ultimately reifying a Middle East in need of U.S. leadership.
We spoke with Osamah Khalil, a professor at Syracuse and author of America's Dream Palace: Middle East Expertise and the Rise of the National Security State. You can find the book here and an article by Dr. Khalil on the origins of the idea of a "Middle East" region here.
What ideas animated the early United States' most important diplomat? David Hendrickson, president of the John Quincy Adams Society, discusses major themes in Adams' life, thought, and character and how these informed his approach to international affairs.
Hendrickson is the author of the new book Freedom, Independence, Peace: John Quincy Adams and American Foreign Policy. It is available as a digital edition at no cost or in print from Barnes and Noble for $9.99. Find it here: https://jqas.org/freedom-independence-peace/
Washington has been a quiet battleground between Moscow and Kyiv. 2021 saw some of K Street's top lobbying firms duking it out over issues like the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, sanctions, and Ukrainian NATO membership. Think tanks got in on the fight too. The Russian invasion of Ukraine then shifted the terrain, with new sanctions blocking Russian lobbying and new lobbyists entering the fray for Ukraine.
Ben Freeman, an expert on foreign influence at the Quincy Institute and author of The Foreign Policy Auction, dug into the lucrative business of foreign influence in the United States, the transparency laws that govern it, and the high-stakes struggle between two enemies to shape U.S. policy.
Freeman's report is here: https://quincyinst.org/report/the-lobbying-battle-before-the-war-russian-and-ukrainian-influence-in-the-u-s/
The internship opening on Freeman's team is here: https://jobs.lever.co/quincyinst/45691bb5-3ff0-412a-8083-57826f528ae1
Resumes, cover letters, and job interviews are the tools you use to get hired in the world of international affairs. But how do you use those tools well? Learn key principles, themes, and techniques that can make you stand out from other job applicants and land an exciting job in foreign policy.
For federal resume tips, check out this previous episode of the podcast: https://spotifyanchor-web.app.link/e/iAR9qvjS2tb
Many people have an instinctive sense that American foreign policy has come to rely too much on military action. Now, there's data. Professors Sidita Kushi and Monica Toft of the Military Intervention Project have produced a massive new dataset of nearly 400 cases of the threat, display, or use of force by the United States abroad. We talk about the patterns of intervention, including an acceleration with the end of the Cold War and the emergence of unipolarity. We also dig into the challenges of measuring intervention.
You can read their article launching the dataset and presenting initial findings here: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/00220027221117546
You can see the supplemental data here: https://figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Supplemental_Material_-_Introducing_the_Military_Intervention_Project_A_New_Dataset_on_US_Military_Interventions_1776_2019/20464279?backTo=/collections/Introducing_the_Military_Intervention_Project_A_New_Dataset_on_US_Military_Interventions_1776_2019/6140734
You can learn more about the Military Intervention Project here: https://sites.tufts.edu/css/
How can aspiring progressive foreign policy professionals start their careers? How can they break into roles working for Congress on Capitol Hill? Join us as we hear from Becca Watts, whose work on the Progressive Talent Pipeline helps shepherd young progressives, especially those from underrepresented backgrounds, into opportunities that let them make an impact. The Progressive Talent Pipeline, which selects, trains, and endorses candidates for roles with members of Congress, is accepting applications until Sept. 11, 2022. Learn more and apply here: https://progressivetalentpipeline.org/
Washington loves the F-35 and hates the A-10. Why? Join us as we dig up a struggle that has roots in the earliest days of air power and turns on fundamental questions: what is an air force for? How should we purchase, assess, and retire aircraft? What are the politics behind these decisions? Join us as we hear from Dan Grazier, Senior Defense Policy Fellow at the Project on Government Oversight and a veteran of the United States Marine Corps, on these two jets.
You can read more of Dan's work here: https://www.pogo.org/about/people/dan-grazier
FM 100-20 (July 1943) is here: https://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/USA/ref/FM/FM100-20/index.html
The Key West Agreement (1948) is here: https://cgsc.contentdm.oclc.org/digital/collection/p4013coll11/id/729/
The F-35 economic impact page is here. https://www.f35.com/f35/about/economic-impact.html
Nancy Pelosi's recent visit to Taiwan got a furious reaction from China, which held major military exercises around the island and fired ballistic missiles. These incidents highlighted a broader trend: China's military is growing in power, while the United States has been engaging more and more openly with Taiwan. Is the status quo falling apart? Are Washington and Beijing on the road to war? Can Taiwan defend itself? We spoke to Michael Swaine of the Quincy Institute about these critical questions. Swaine is among the authors of Active Denial, a recent study of U.S. defense posture in Asia. https://quincyinst.org/report/active-denial-a-roadmap-to-a-more-effective-stabilizing-and-sustainable-u-s-defense-strategy-in-asia/
In the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Finland and Sweden made a dramatic shift in their security policies, seeking membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and turning away from decades of neutrality (indeed, centuries in Sweden's case). Barring further Turkish objections, their membership appears likely to go through. Does this serve U.S. interests? We spoke with Sumantra Maitra of the Center for the National Interest and the Royal Historical Society. Dr. Maitra is author of a forthcoming article on this subject for Law and Liberty and the below report at the Center for Renewing America: https://americarenewing.com/issues/nato-expansion-for-finland-and-sweden-a-dangerous-and-unnecessary-distraction-from-us-interests/
We hear a lot about something called "the liberal international order." The frequent use of the term, however, is relatively recent - and the phrase itself often obscures as much as it reveals. This recording from our 2022 summer conference in Washington captures a conversation with Stephen Wertheim of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and its American Statecraft Program.
The Eurasia Group Foundation (EGF) came out in June with their annual survey of international perceptions of American democracy. As the Biden administration works to restore the credibility of the United States on the world stage, we found favorable views of both the United States and American democracy are at a four-year high. The report also found favorable views of President Biden’s foreign policy decisions, including Ukraine and Afghanistan. At the same time, views of American democracy from respondents in China are at a four-year low. The report is based on nearly 5,000 survey takers in nine politically and geographically diverse countries. Respondents were asked detailed questions about the United States, its democracy, and its global influence. EGF shared its most notable findings with JQAS and discussed possible implications for US foreign policy going forward. EGF researchers Zuri Linetsky, Caroline Gray, and Lucas Robinson spoke with us.
You can find the full poll here. https://egfound.org/2022/06/modeling-democracy-democracys-promise/
You can find more information about our Marcellus Policy Fellowship, mentioned at the end as a great way to develop your foreign policy writing skills, here. Applications are currently open for the fall cohort. https://jqas.org/the-marcellus-policy-fellowship/
President Joe Biden has made several big moves in his foreign policy toward the Middle East so far - among them a planned trip to meet with Saudi Arabia's controversial leader Mohammad bin Salman, a willingness to allow the Iran nuclear talks to lie fallow, and a cut to military aid to Egypt. This happens as several regional states want the United States to remain committed to the region and even to increase military presence there. How is everything going, and how does this fit into broader trends in U.S. grand strategy and Middle Eastern politics?
Our guest Sean Yom is Associate Professor of Political Science at Temple University and Senior Fellow at the Project on Middle East Democracy in Washington, DC. He is a specialist on regimes and governance in the Middle East, especially in Arab monarchies like Jordan, Kuwait, and Morocco. His research engages topics of authoritarian politics, democratic reforms, institutional stability, and economic development in these countries, as well as their implications for US foreign policy. His publications include the books From Resilience to Revolution: How Foreign Interventions Destabilize the Middle East (Columbia University Press, 2016), as well as The Political Science of the Middle East: Theory and Research since the Arab Uprisings (Oxford University Press, 2022); articles in print journals like Comparative Political Studies, European Journal of International Relations, Studies in Comparative International Development, and Journal of Democracy; and contributions in online venues like Foreign Affairs, Middle East Eye, and the Washington Post’s Monkey Cage. He also advises country-level work with international NGOs, law firms, and sovereign clients. Education: A.B., Brown University (2003); PhD., Harvard University (2009).
Iran faces growing problems at home and abroad. At home, a building collapse added fuel to the fire of protests that had started over rising food prices. Abroad, the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors has just condemned the regime’s lack of compliance with nuclear safeguards measures. Nuclear negotiations are frozen. Sanctions remain on. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has complicated the Ebrahim Raisi administration’s efforts to reorient foreign policy away from the West.
Negar Mortazavi is an Iranian American journalist and political analyst based in Washington DC, who has been covering Iranian affairs and US-Iran relations for over a decade. She is host of The Iran Podcast. Her previous work includes serving as a columnist and diplomatic correspondent at The Independent, a host on Voice of America and as Washington Correspondent for Iran International.
Ukraine won the battle for Kyiv and pushed the Russians back from Kharkiv. But that doesn't mean the war is over - indeed, it seems likely to continue for the long haul, while there may be dangers of Russian escalation in spite of Russia's weak position. We spoke with George Beebe, former head of Russia analysis at the Central Intelligence Agency and current Director of Grand Strategy at the Quincy Institute, about what lies ahead. His 2019 book is The Russia Trap: How Our Shadow War with Russia Could Spiral into Nuclear Catastrophe.
What does it mean to be Ukrainian? Struggles within Ukraine about the answer to that question create an opening for other states to intervene, argues our guest, with some (primarily in Ukraine's north and west) favoring a more ethnic nationalism and others (primarily in Ukraine's east and south) favoring a more civic nationalism. In World War I, World War II, and the present day, outside powers have backed one vision or another to advance their interests. Only a process of truth and reconciliation - of catharsis leading to understanding - can heal Ukraine.
Nicolai N. Petro is a Professor of Political Science at the University of Rhode Island. He was a U.S. Fulbright Scholar in Ukraine 2013-2014 and the author of the forthcoming book The Tragedy of Ukraine: What Classical Greek Tragedy Can Teach Us About Conflict Resolution.
The Yale Journal of International Affairs article Dr. Petro references is "The Gospel According to Poroshenko: Politics, Religion, and the New Church of Ukraine," available at https://www.yalejournal.org/publications/the-gospel-according-to-poroshenko-politics-religion-and-the-new-church-of-ukraine
The next event we have on Ukraine is with George Beebe - on dangers of escalation and paths to peace. Learn more and register here: https://standtogether.zoom.us/webinar/register/4716529676857/WN_aIiw1IiySneDWzfFfKmXqQ
How did Putin become Putin? Amb. John Evans met the future Russian leader when he was just a deputy mayor of St. Petersburg. Evans, then serving as U.S. consul general, shares his recollections of the young Putin, situates this in the broader Russian political situation in the 1990s and the evolution of U.S.-Russian relations from the optimism of the period to today's bitterness. We also speak about Russia's move into Ukraine - how it came to this and where it may go.
Our guest offers a minor correction to his remarks: "It was Chip Bohlen who got the scoop on the Hitler-Stalin pact from his German colleague in Moscow. [Not George Kennan.] Bohlen tells the story in Chapter Five of his 'Witness to History.'"
Change is in the air in the Koreas.
In the South, incoming president Yoon Suk-yeol takes over from Moon Jae-in, potentially yielding shifts away from diplomacy with Pyongyang and toward closer relations with Washington and Tokyo.
In the North, a recent ICBM test stoked concerns about nuclear risks as many diplomatic mechanisms are on ice. And both Koreas face a diplomatic test as the Russian invasion of Ukraine creates new friction in global politics and economics.
Our guest, John Delury, is Professor of Chinese Studies at Yonsei University Graduate School of International Studies and Underwood International College in Seoul, South Korea. He is author of Agents of Subversion: The Fate of John T. Downey and the CIA's Covert War in China (Cornell, 2022) and is co-authoring a book on the political history of North Korea and the keys to the longevity and resilience of Kim family rule. His PhD is from Yale.
U.S. leaders have complained for decades that allies aren't pulling their weight. Countries like Germany have become infamous for underinvesting in their own defense, effectively shifting their defense burdens onto American soldiers and taxpayers. Occasional commitments by allies to do better have often gone unmet, and the most likely path to wide European compliance with NATO's shared 2% of GDP spending target is through reactions to Russian actions, not American goading. Why have so many U.S. leaders failed to induce significant burden sharing?
Justin Logan is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute. He is an expert on U.S. grand strategy, international relations theory, and American foreign policy. His current research focuses on the shifting balance of power in Asia—specifically with regard to China—and the limited relevance of the Middle East to U.S. national security.
He has authored numerous policy studies and articles on topics including international relations theory, U.S.-China policy, U.S.-Russia policy, stabilization and reconstruction operations, and the policy approaches to a nuclear Iran. His articles have appeared in International Security, the Journal of Strategic Studies, Strategic Studies Quarterly, Foreign Policy, the National Interest, the Harvard International Review, Orbis, the Foreign Service Journal, National Review, Politico Magazine, and the American Prospect, among others.
Logan holds a master’s degree in international relations from the University of Chicago and a bachelor’s degree in international relations from American University.
Upcoming: Korean Peninsula Update - Register here: https://standtogether.zoom.us/webinar/register/6616488620621/WN_cd7p1xAyTZen01hCVb0-PA
How do different countries choose who gets to decide when nuclear weapons are used, how that decision is made, and how that decision can be brought into effect? What factors lead them to choose different strategies for closely controlling - or not - their nuclear arsenals? How does all this impact U.S. security - and how do U.S. policies shape other actors' choices? Learn all this and more in a special conversation with a leading expert on the subject, Dr. David Arceneaux.
David Arceneaux is an assistant professor of political science at the University of Colorado, Colorado Springs. He earned a Ph.D. in political science from Syracuse University in 2019. He also holds a master's degree in political science from Syracuse University, as well as a master's degree in international affairs from the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University.
Dr. Arceneaux was previously a postdoctoral fellow at Harvard University's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, affiliated with the International Security Program and Project on Managing the Atom. He was also a predoctoral Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow at the MIT Security Studies Program and a Carnegie International Politics Scholars Consortium and Network (IPSCON) predoctoral fellow at John Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), affiliated with the Henry A. Kissinger Center for Global Affairs.
Dr. Arceneaux studies several topics related to international security, with a focus on nuclear weapons strategy and operations. His book project builds upon archival and original interview data with political and military elites to explain variation in regional nuclear power command and control systems. He also has ongoing research projects on nuclear platform diversification and North Korean nuclear operations.
The global response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine has put China in a complicated position, and there have been some signs of frustration in Beijing. The global economic disruptions wrought by war and sanctions are no good for the PRC. At the same time, an isolated Russia may present opportunities for China. And stepping back from today's crisis to the broader sweep of history, the Sino-Russian relationship may be emerging as the pole of an alternative non-Western sphere. What does all this mean? Join us as we hear from Lyle Goldstein, an expert on both Russia and China who is writing a book on the two states' relationship.
Lyle J. Goldstein is Director of Asia Engagement at Defense Priorities. Formerly, he served as Research Professor at U.S. Naval War College for 20 years. In that post, he was awarded the Superior Civilian Service Medal for founding and leading the China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI). His main areas of expertise include both maritime security and nuclear security issues. Major focus areas have also recently included the Arctic, as well as the Korean Peninsula. He has published seven books on Chinese strategy, including Meeting China Halfway (Georgetown UP, 2015). He speaks both Chinese and Russian and is currently writing a book on China-Russia relations. He has a PhD from Princeton, an MA from Johns Hopkins SAIS, and a BA from Harvard.
What motivates a military to continue fighting even when their situation looks grim? Are certain types of militaries more effective at achieving their goals than others? Ukraine appears to have fought better than Russia expected, while even experts on Russian forces have been surprised by the shortcomings its military has displayed since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. What can the current situation tell us about prospects for military cohesion as the conflict continues?
Jasen J. Castillo is an Associate Professor and the Evelyn and Ed F. Kruse '49 Faculty Fellow in the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University. He is the Co-Director of the Albritton Center for Grand Strategy. Prior to joining the Bush School, Dr. Castillo worked in the Department of Defense's Strategy and Plans Office. Before working in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, he was an analyst at the RAND Corporation, where his research focused on military strategy, nuclear deterrence, and WMD terrorism. Prior to RAND, he was a consultant for the Institute for Defense Analyses. Dr. Castillo earned his PhD in political science from the University of Chicago, where he received research support from the National Science Foundation and the Smith Richardson Foundation. His research interests include U.S. defense policy, military history, and nuclear deterrence. His publications include Endurance and War: The National Sources of Military Cohesion (Palo Alto: Stanford University Press, 2014); “Loyalty, Hedging, or Exit: How Weaker Alliance Partners Respond to the Rise of New Threats,” Journal of Strategic Studies, forthcoming; “Don’t Leave Grand Strategy to the Generals,” The National Interest, October 2019; “Passing the Torch: Criteria for Implementing a Grand Strategy of Offshore Balancing,” in New Voices in Grand Strategy (Washington, DC: Center for New American Security, 2019); Understanding Russian Nuclear Strategy and Assessing Escalation in Conventional Conflicts, PR-3039-OSD (Santa Monica, CA: The RAND Corporation, October 2017); National Will to Fight: Why Some States Keep Fighting and Others Don’t, PR-3191-A (Santa Monica, CA: The RAND Corporation, October 2017); Will to Fight: Defining, Modeling, and Simulating the Will to Fight of Tactical and Operational Military Units, PR-3149-A (Santa Monica, CA: The RAND Corporation, October 2017).
Why is it so hard to let go? It is an enduring puzzle of U.S. foreign relations. It is hardly original to point out the sprawling collection of U.S. military installations and personnel abroad, but why is it so hard to reduce that military footprint, especially when so many presidents come into power wanting to do so? Today, I'd like to discuss U.S. President William McKinley's annexation of the Philippines in 1898 which sheds light on one important cause of "stickiness": a common psychological bias called the Endowment Effect. In exploring this concept, it enriches our understanding of why it can be so hard to let go.
Aroop Mukharji is a postdoctoral fellow at the Center for Strategic Studies at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. He received his PhD in Public Policy from Harvard University, where he studied American foreign policy and presidential decision-making in the William McKinley (1897-1901) and Teddy Roosevelt (1901-1909) administrations. He has hosted several podcasts, including Snack Break, the Belfer Center's foreign policy podcast at the Harvard Kennedy School (called Office Hours), and another podcast for the NGO Sense and Sustainability. He published a book on education and diplomacy in 2016 with Palgrave Macmillan, and has published foreign policy opinion pieces in War on the Rocks, The Atlantic, The Washington Post, The Yale Journal of International Affairs, and The New Republic. His academic research has been published by Negotiation Journal and The Journal of Applied History.
The world is watching the situation in Ukraine with bated breath. As of this recording, Russia has not invaded, but claims of a drawdown appear to be false. We spoke with Emma Ashford about what’s going on, how we got to this point, and possible ways to resolve the situation. We also dig into the views of other powers like China and Germany and the role that economic factors play in the dispute.
Emma Ashford is a resident senior fellow with the New American Engagement Initiative in the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council. She has a biweekly column for Foreign Policy and is a regular contributor to Inkstick. Her PhD is from the University of Virginia.
Upcoming Events
· China’s Rise: Military Exercises and Regional Cooperation (w/ Kyuri Park) Weds 2/23, 7pm ET. https://standtogether.zoom.us/webinar/register/5116444189497/WN_OmY5gAlBSnCzpYs9ZVeK0A
· The Spanish-American War and Its Legacy (w/ Aroop Mukharji) Weds 3/2, 7pm ET. https://standtogether.zoom.us/webinar/register/7016444189231/WN_e8ZTtMkLT1iBH_XudVQLDQ
Essay Contest w/ TNI (for students): https://jqas.org/2022-student-foreign-policy-essay-contest/
Strategic Leaders Fellowship (5-15 years FP experience) https://jqas.org/the-strategic-leaders-fellowship/
Summer Programs https://jqas.org/2022-summer-programs/
U.S. defense policy increasingly reflects the view that U.S. threats to defend its Asian allies, and Taiwan, are becoming less credible as Chinese power rises. This view is wrong. Geography and technological trends mean defenders have the advantage - whether the power playing defense is China or its would-be rivals. While the Chinese threat to Taiwan remains worrisome, Asia's defensive advantages are good news for the U.S. as a supporter of the Asian status quo.
One minor note: the major European city that is as close to Taipei as Sydney is is MOSCOW, not London.
Benjamin H. Friedman is policy director at Defense Priorities and a PhD candidate in political science at the MIT. He previously worked as a Defense Analyst at the Cato Institute and a Researcher at the Center for Defense Information. He's edited three books on defense policy and strategy and has published in a number of academic journals and major publications.
Upcoming Events
• The Ukraine Crisis (w/ Emma Ashford) Weds 2/16, 7pm ET. https://standtogether.zoom.us/webinar/register/3516437348068/WN_3blHwmwFSAynCEwVfEpXxA
• China’s Rise: Military Exercises and Regional Cooperation (w/ Kyuri Park) Weds 2/23, 7pm ET. https://standtogether.zoom.us/webinar/register/5116444189497/WN_OmY5gAlBSnCzpYs9ZVeK0A
• The Spanish-American War and Its Legacy (w/ Aroop Mukharji) Weds 3/2, 7pm ET. https://standtogether.zoom.us/webinar/register/7016444189231/WN_e8ZTtMkLT1iBH_XudVQLDQ
Essay Contest w/ TNI (for students): https://jqas.org/2022-student-foreign-policy-essay-contest/
Strategic Leaders Fellowship (5-15 years FP experience) https://jqas.org/the-strategic-leaders-fellowship/
A twenty-year campaign in Afghanistan that ended in disaster. An intervention in Libya that helped cast the country into a decade-long civil war. An invasion of Iraq that led to chaos and removed a check on Iran. A war on terror that seems to have created more terrorists. NATO expansion in Europe that cemented Russian enmity. Why does U.S. foreign policy have such a poor record lately? And how has all of this impacted civil-military relations?
Join us and the Columbia Political Union for a conversation with Andrew Bacevich, president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and a historian of U.S. foreign and defense policy.
The United Arab Emirates is a close partner for the United States in the Middle East. It is usually seen as a stabilizing force, especially against terrorism and Iran, and it has many friends in Washington think tanks. Yet this benignant reading of the Emirati role glosses over the darker side of its power: interventions and proxy forces in places like Yemen and Libya; alignment with coups in Egypt, Tunisia, and Sudan; espionage; and apparent attempts to interfere in U.S. politics. Join us as we here from Jon Hoffman on his case that it's time to cease providing a "blank check" to the UAE. (Full article here: https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/11/03/us-uae-relationship-arms-sales-human-rights-biden/)
Jonathan Hoffman is a political science Ph.D. candidate at George Mason University (GMU) focusing on Middle East politics. He received an M.A. in Middle East and Islamic Studies and a B.A. in Global Affairs, both from GMU. Jonathan has been published in various academic and policy-oriented platforms, including Middle East Policy, Digest of Middle East Studies, Foreign Policy, and more.
Upcoming Events
· Andrew Bacevich on Why American Foreign Policy Keeps Failing. Weds 2/2, 7pm ET. With Columbia Political Union/Columbia University JQAS. https://standtogether.zoom.us/webinar/register/2716426270344/WN_jaQf0cz6T1edPU6GUIe0NQ
· Is U.S. Deterrence in Asia Failing? (w/ Ben Friedman of Defense Priorities) Weds 2/9, 7pm ET. With The King’s College JQAS. https://standtogether.zoom.us/webinar/register/3316414182081/WN_bNsnONEmTEmoCPyO9a-7Ww
The Department of Defense has about a quarter of a million servicemembers and civilians stationed outside the United States in a massive network of bases. This force posture includes a heavy presence in Europe and the Indo-Pacific, a medium presence in the Middle East, and smaller numbers in Africa and the Americas. Do current U.S. positions abroad meet U.S. security needs? Are forces deployed only where they are necessary? Are deployments occurring at a sustainable pace in light of the need to repair and train?
The Biden administration conducted a review of questions like these in late 2021 and claimed that things were about where they should be. We'll assess that view and provide an alternative.
Our guest Gil Barndollar is a senior fellow at Defense Priorities and a senior research fellow at the Catholic University of America’s Center for the Study of Statesmanship. He has written for The Wall Street Journal, The Los Angeles Times, USA Today, The National Interest, The American Conservative, and US Naval Proceedings, among other publications. Gil provides frequent commentary and analysis on U.S. foreign policy to national and international media and has appeared on CNN, Fox News, the BBC World Service, and the Fox Business Network. From 2009 to 2016 he served as an infantry officer in the United States Marine Corps, deploying to Afghanistan twice, to Guantanamo Bay, and to the Persian Gulf. He holds an AB in history from Bowdoin College and MPhil and PhD degrees in history from the University of Cambridge.
Relevant links:
The Pentagon's release on the Global Posture Review https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/2855801/dod-concludes-2021-global-posture-review/
Barndollar's report on the Global Posture Review https://www.defensepriorities.org/explainers/global-posture-review-2021
2022 Student Foreign Policy Essay Contest https://jqas.org/2022-student-foreign-policy-essay-contest/
Upcoming Events
The UAE: A Destabilizing Partnership? (w/ Jonathan Hoffman of GMU) Weds 1/26, 7pm ET. https://standtogether.zoom.us/webinar/register/7516414179565/WN_CrcTuafyTBCkMdHxDp9nvQ
Andrew Bacevich on Why American Foreign Policy Keeps Failing. Weds 2/2, 7pm ET. With Columbia Political Union/Columbia University JQAS. https://standtogether.zoom.us/webinar/register/2716426270344/WN_jaQf0cz6T1edPU6GUIe0NQ
Is U.S. Deterrence in Asia Failing? (w/ Ben Friedman of Defense Priorities) Weds 2/9, 7pm ET. With The King’s College JQAS. https://standtogether.zoom.us/webinar/register/3316414182081/WN_bNsnONEmTEmoCPyO9a-7Ww
You've worked hard to deepen your knowledge of international affairs. Writing is a critical tool for sharing that knowledge and establishing yourself as a voice in our field. Learn how to write the pieces editors can't wait to feature - and how to navigate pitching your writing to a publication and working through edits. What's it like to be on the other side of the author-editor relationship? We'll hear from Kelley Beaucar Vlahos, current editorial director of Responsible Statecraft and former executive editor of The American Conservative.
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/
Kelley Beaucar Vlahos is Editorial Director of Responsible Statecraft and Senior Advisor at the Quincy Institute. Previously, she served for three years as Executive Editor of the The American Conservative magazine, where she had been reporting and publishing regular articles on national security, civil liberties, foreign policy, veterans, and Washington politics since 2007. From 2013 to 2017, Vlahos served as director of social media and online editor at WTOP News in Washington, D.C.. She also spent 15 years as an online political reporter for Fox News at the channel’s Washington D.C. bureau, as well as Washington correspondent for Homeland Security Today magazine. Follow her on Twitter @KelleyBVlahos.
The dawn of precision weaponry helped create deeper interest in making war humane: limiting collateral damage, for example. However, argues Samuel Moyn in a new book, this has had the paradoxical effect of making war endless - rendering it sustainable and diluting efforts to end the wars rather than merely managing their violence. Join us as we hear from Moyn on his provocative argument.
Samuel Moyn is Henry R. Luce Professor of Jurisprudence at Yale Law School and Professor of History at Yale University. He has written several books in his fields of European intellectual history and human rights history, including The Last Utopia: Human Rights in History (2010), and edited or coedited a number of others. His most recent books are Christian Human Rights (2015), based on Mellon Distinguished Lectures at the University of Pennsylvania in fall 2014, and Not Enough: Human Rights in an Unequal World (2018). His newest book, Humane: How the United States Abandoned Peace and Reinvented War, appears with Farrar, Straus, and Giroux in fall 2021. He is a fellow of the new Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, Over the years he has written in venues such as the Atlantic, Boston Review, the Chronicle of Higher Education, Commonweal, Dissent, the Guardian, the London Review of Books, The Nation, The New Republic, the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and the Washington Post.
Why did America invade Iraq in 2003? What led policymakers to abandon a paradigm of containment and replace it with one of overthrow? Why did George W. Bush, who had run for president as a critic of nationbuilding, end up engaging in America's biggest nationbuilding project in decades? There are few people better equipped to answer that question than Mike Mazarr, who interviewed dozens of decisionmakers and dug through every declassified document from the period.
Michael J. Mazarr is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation. Previously he worked at the U.S. National War College, where he was professor and associate dean of academics; as president of the Henry L. Stimson Center; senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies; senior defense aide on Capitol Hill; and as a special assistant to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. His primary interests are U.S. defense policy and force structure, disinformation and information manipulation, East Asian security, nuclear weapons and deterrence, and judgment and decisionmaking under uncertainty. Mazarr holds a Ph.D. in public policy from the University of Maryland.
The 2019 book that forms the basis for this discussion is Leap of Faith: Hubris, Negligence, and America's Greatest Foreign Policy Tragedy.
America's sixth president is widely seen as one of the country's greatest diplomats. Phrases like "[America] goes not abroad in search of monsters to destroy" remain in our lexicon. Territorial acquisitions he negotiated from Spain include the state of Florida and access to the West Coast. His deft diplomacy helped secure American interests during the massive wars after the French Revolution, the independence of Spain's Latin American colonies, and the rise of the Holy Alliance. The Monroe Doctrine he was central in crafting defined U.S. relations with the Western Hemisphere for the remainder of the nineteenth century.
Many in today's foreign policy debate seek to take up Adams' legacy. Organizations like the John Quincy Adams Society and the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft have taken him as their eponym, arguing that he counseled a position of restraint in U.S. foreign policy - a general avoidance of involving America in disputes abroad - and that he would oppose today's more expansive conception of U.S. foreign policy needs.
Critics hold that this misreads Adams' legacy: that Adams displayed a comfort with the use of American power globally and in harmony with American ideals that is in conflict with the restrainers' vision.
Who is right? Join the Society and its Westminster College chapter for a debate on JQA, his foreign policy, and its implications for today. John Allen Gay of the John Quincy Adams Society will hold that organizations like his own are indeed the rightful heirs of Adams' legacy. Mike Watson of the Hudson Institute will counter. Tobias Gibson of Westminster College moderates.
Links:
Mike Watson, “The Quincy Institute vs. John Quincy Adams” https://www.commentary.org/articles/mike-watson/quincy-institute-vs-john-quincy-adams/
Adams’ message to Congress on the proposed U.S. delegation to the Panama Congress, March 1826 https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/special-message-104
Adams’ 1793 Marcellus letter https://www.google.com/books/edition/Writings_of_John_Quincy_Adams_1779_1796/yVkSAAAAYAAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&bsq=marcellus
Adams’ July 4, 1821 “Monsters to Destroy” speech https://archive.org/details/addressdelivered00adamiala
Adams on the Greek revolution https://www.google.com/books/edition/Memoirs_of_John_Quincy_Adams/dk4DAAAAYAAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&bsq=greece%20and%20spain
Diplomacy is breaking out in the Middle East. Traditional rivals like Saudi Arabia and Iran have been sitting down to talk through their differences. Why is this happening?
Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute and several other influential commentators have argued that the United States' drawdown in the region has forced its partners to dial back more confrontational elements in their foreign policies, as they no longer have Uncle Sam backing them up. What's more, Parsi and others argue, there's reason for optimism that this diplomacy can improve things in the region.
Not so, argues Thanassis Cambanis of Century International. These states have their own reasons for diplomacy, and to argue otherwise is to overstate American influence. Moreover, he argues, much of this diplomacy is not likely to succeed and may even be jostling for position ahead of new conflicts.
Implicitly, this debate has implications for U.S. grand strategy. U.S. global military presence is intended in part to suppress conflict. If Parsi is right, that presence may be sustaining conflict and enabling partners' intransigence.
This debate was held in partnership with our University of Florida chapter.
Parsi article
Cambanis article
Peter Campbell of Baylor University applies lessons from defensive military doctrine to make the case for the advantages of a defense-oriented cyber doctrine in a digital discussion with the John Quincy Adams Society. (8/26/2020)
Working for the U.S. Department of Defense is a dream for many aspiring national security wonks, yet many end up getting stuck in the infamous USAJobs black hole. How can you make your application stronger? We hear from James Dillon, a recruiter for the Department of Defense, about how to stand out, from the secrets to a good federal resume to the role of job interviews.
Fears of a new era of great power competition in East Asia are gripping Washington - but nobody seems to have told the region's states, which are maintaining low defense spending and resolving disputes among one another. This John Quincy Adams Society digital discussion features David C. Kang of the University of Southern California.
Is Europe capable of defending itself against a Russian invasion without assistance from the United States? In a recent paper for Survival, Barry R. Posen argues that it can. The John Quincy Adams Society's national organization teamed up with the JQAS chapter at the University of Notre Dame for a conversation with Dr. Posen on his article and several subsequent critiques of it. You can find the original article here: https://www.iiss.org/blogs/survival-blog/2020/12/europe-can-defend-itself
U.S. foreign economic assistance may seem like it'd be great for everyone in countries that receive it - and certainly less likely to be involved in repression than military aid. The evidence points a different direction. We heard from Virginia Commonwealth University professor Jessica Trisko Darden about the research behind her book Aiding and Abetting: U.S. Foreign Assistance and State Violence in a live event cohosted with our Johns Hopkins University chapter. To learn more about the Society and participate in opportunities like this, check out our website: http://jqas.org/
How can the JQA Society change your life and accelerate your career? How can you take your leadership skills to the next level? Several current and former chapter leaders talk about the impact their involvement with the John Quincy Adams Society has had for them. You'll hear from Julia and Ryan, two JQA alumni who now work in foreign policy in Washington, and from Samantha and Alyssa, who lead an established chapter and one that's brand new. Learn how it's done and what it can do for you. This is a session from our 2021 summer conference, which was held digitally due to covid.
The War in Afghanistan has come to an end. But what about the legal framework that made it (and the Global War on Terror) happen? Hear from a policy advocate working to lobby Congress for a more peaceful foreign policy. Julia Gledhill, a former JQA Society campus leader, now works at the Friends Committee for National Legislation, where she covers issues like war powers, defense spending, and human rights. In this conversation, we talk about the ongoing 2022 National Defense Authorization Act process, the drone war, Guantanamo Bay, and proposals to authorize the president to go to war with China over Taiwan. We also hear about what the life of a policy advocate looks like day to day and how the John Quincy Adams Society helped her achieve her professional goals.
Thucydides famously argued that the rise of Athens, and the fear this provoked in Sparta, made the Peloponnesian War inevitable. Some have taken this to be a general principle: rising powers and the relatively declining states they advance upon are doomed to confrontation, crisis, and war. Will this be the case with the United States and China? In this digital event with the John Quincy Adams Society, Joshua Shifrinson of Boston University argues that we shouldn't be as worried as some would have us be. Shifrinson conducted a deep examination of rising states and the choices they make in dealing with declining states and argues that rising states usually don't choose to prey upon their rival. Only in particular circumstances is predation an attractive choice. The book from which this conversation derives is Rising Titans, Falling Giants.
To sign up for the Society's digital events, go to JQAS.org.