Super-Spiked Podcast: Recent Episodes

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It is now August, the last month of summer, and we are planning a series of shorter “mini-dives” that offer insight into our major themes and in some cases, like this week, push back on some of our own biases and perspectives. By now our disdain is well known for what we have called the European mindset of prioritizing climate and net zero as the de facto primary objective of energy policy. We do not believe in an equal-weighted energy trilemma either to be clear.

But we have been wrong, or perhaps more accurately lazy, in simply saying “we don’t like European energy policy and hope America never goes down that road.” Europe is no more a singular place than is the U.S. From an energy policy standpoint, we regularly differentiate states with favorable energy policy like Texas, North Dakota, Louisiana, and Oklahoma from places with unfavorable policies like California and New York. Pennsylvania is not the same as New Jersey. Florida is different than Connecticut.

Our critique of European economic and energy policy is primarily rooted in its Big-4 economies especially the United Kingdom and Germany. What former Secretary of Defense Don Rumsfeld famously derided as “Old Europe.” This week we take a look at oil demand trends in Old Europe versus New Europe.

Three key messages:

• We often discuss the rising prosperity of the other 7 billion people on Earth and our everyone deserves to be energy rich mega theme. We have never before noticed that 250 million of them live in New Europe and are on an upswing. A special shout out this week to Poland and Türkiye.

• Our Obliterating Peak Oil Demand theme is alive and well in Europe, where growth in New Europe is surprisingly offsetting declines in Old Europe.

• This is positive not just for oil demand but growth in power markets and the fuels that support general economic and industrial growth. As usual, we advise applying our natural hierarchy of energy needs to the energy sources and technologies that will make the most sense for each country—”some of the above,” country specific.

Exhibit 1: European oil demand

Source: Energy Institute, Our World in Data, Veriten.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

Subscribe to receive all content. Also available at Veriten.com.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

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We are now recording an audio version of written posts that we will upload to Apple, Spotify, and YouTube, which you can listen to by clicking the play button above.

We conclude our month long series on Strait of Hormuz (SoH) Crisis takeaways with a look at what this conflict means for the related topics of sustainability, climate, and the environment.

Three key messages this week:

• Many proponents and opponents of “Net Zero” are drawing the wrong conclusions about what this war means for different energy sources and technologies. Energy’s natural hierarchy of needs applied at the country level mean the optimal mix of various energy sources and technologies will vary for any given country—a reality the crisis reinforces.

• The topic of Sustainability needs to be right-sized and recognized for where it fits into corporate level strategies. Companies exist to generate growth and profitability for investors. Certain sustainability objectives are core to being successful over the long run. Sustainability is not a strategy in and of itself.

• We shall offer free advice on what hyperscalers can learn from the oil & gas industry.

We are going to do our best to not rehash our now well-known pushbacks on the excesses of the 2020-23 “Net Zero” era. The madness of that period we don’t think ever returns, no matter who wins the US presidency in 2028. But we do get the question—and we are appreciative of those of you that ask—how does sustainability, climate, and the environment factor into our outlook for the energy sector, public policy, and corporate strategy and how does the SoH Crisis change or impact the views we have been articulating?

We will start with a grounding on how we think about environmental and climate considerations. Our title gives it away: increasing global prosperity is our centering point, both for countries and companies. In terms of our concern level around the need to address climate change, we would characterize our specific climate opinions as broadly consistent with US Energy Secretary Chris Wright and former University of Colorado professor and Substack author (here) Roger Pielke Jr.

At the country level, energy’s natural hierarchy of needs that we frequently discuss is observably all any country cares about at all times (Exhibit 1). Abundant and reliable energy is a 24/7/365 pre-requisite. It needs to be affordable the vast bulk of the time. Country leaders care about geopolitical security in order to protect reliability and affordability. Clean air and clean water are 100% correlated with societal wealth. Addressing carbon emissions goes hand-in-hand with a maximum prosperity scenario where billion person-scale economies like China and India are highly motivated to crack the code on new energy technologies that are de facto lower in carbon intensity. Pretending that society and companies can be forced onto prescriptive “Paris-aligned Net Zero by 2050 pathways” was the fatal flaw of the 2020-2023 era.

For companies, the only goal is to generate competitive returns and growth for shareholders. Sustainability exists at the level of community engagement, license to operate, and as a possible alternative to government regulation. It is a component of running a company similar to many other functions; it is not a strategy in its own right (e.g., pressuring oil & gas companies to transition business models in the name of addressing climate change never made sense).

With that grounding, we are going to use a Q&A styled format to address how we think the related topics of sustainability, climate, and the environment will be impacted by the Strait of Hormuz Crisis.

Exhibit 1: Energy’s natural hierarch of needs

Source: Veriten.

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Q1: Does the SoH Crisis mean that the core tenet of Net Zero by 2050—which was to switch out of crude oil, natural gas, and coal into renewables, EVs, and other new tech—was correct after all?

No. It does not. Our issue with Net Zero by 2050, or any other year for that matter, is that it incorrectly treats carbon emissions as the organizing principle for economic activity. It is not nor will it ever be, irrespective of how much (or little) concern any specific leader or group of citizens has about climate. There is nothing about the Strait of Hormuz Crisis that suddenly makes Net Zero pathways more relevant.

Q2: So the opponents to Net Zero are correct that renewables and other new technologies are a boondoggle that plays on climate alarmism?

No. It does not mean that either. The focus on non-oil, natural gas, and coal technologies will be driven by the massive unmet energy needs of the other 7 billion people on Earth that seek their own version of the prosperous lifestyles The Lucky 1 Billion of us take for granted. A specific view on climate is largely irrelevant to technology development. Reliability, affordability, and geopolitical security are the motivations to figure out new technologies. We are seeing this in real time in places like China and other Asian countries.

Q3: Are there examples of countries that are adjusting away from a prior emphasis on Net Zero pathways as a result of geopolitical turmoil?

We are optimistic about Norway and Canada, as two countries that are showing signs of appropriate course corrections. In the case of Norway, as a small, wealthy country, de facto mandating 100% EVs in order to not burn gasoline for consumer transportation is a choice they are free to make. More importantly, Norway is remembering that increasing oil and natural gas supply from the Norwegian North Sea is critically important to the geopolitical security and economic health of Norway, Europe, and its allies. Norway is also the home to a vibrant community of new technology companies. More oil, more natural gas, and investing in new technologies—yes!

Canada’s post Trudeau pivot away from Net Zero zealotry seems as much of a reaction to unfavorable rhetoric toward the country from President Trump than necessarily a recognition of how little sense it made for Canada to pursue energy policies that sought to limit the development of its massive oil sands and natural gas resources. Still, we will accept the directional improvement under PM Carney, irrespective of the apparent motivations.

Long-time Super-Spiked subscribers know how critically important we believe energy and power integration between the United States and Canada is, making the recent political schism deeply unfortunate, even as it has seemingly improved energy policy decision making in Canada. The United States is economically and geopolitically stronger thanks to our close energy integration with Canada. The same is true for Canada. We credit our friend, former colleague, and current Deputy Secretary of Commerce Paul Dabbar for the idea that US + Canada + Norway would make for an outstanding trans-Atlantic alliance of energy and technology super powers (here).

Q4: What else does geopolitical turmoil reveal about where the Net Zero mindset went wrong?

The practical application of Net Zero by 2050 policies in many rich-world countries, states, and provinces has been to restrict domestic oil, natural gas, and coal production, mandate the use of new technologies, all while losing competitiveness in manufacturing and business more broadly. Restricting domestic energy supply, making energy prices uncompetitive, and offshoring industrial manufacturing should not be the objective of any country, state, or province. It is without question bad for geopolitical security, bad for domestic economic growth, and bad for the environment.

Rather, we recommend a play on the George Castanza (Seinfeld) line (here): Show me an energy policy strategy that does the opposite. The litmus test is which country’s energy and environmental policies come with competitive energy prices and business and manufacturing growth?

The United Kingdom versus China is case in point. U.K. leaders have spoken glowingly about eliminating coal from their power sector and all but ending viability of the U.K. North Sea for oil and gas exploration. Yet, the country also faces the outsourcing and offshoring of its refining, petrochemical, and broader industrial base. To be clear, the U.K.’s policy challenges are not limited solely to its energy and climate policies, but those are foundational and almost certainly a meaningful contributing factor.

We contrast the U.K. with China which has dramatically increased coal-fired power generation, renewables, nuclear, natural gas, and grown its domestic oil supply while building a massive strategic petroleum reserve. China is now manufacturer to the world with improving living standards for its citizens. The U.K. being on-track, or not, for domestic Net Zero is completely irrelevant to global emissions and, if anything, has been net negative for the climate given China’s higher emissions profile. It has certainly been a negative for the economic competitiveness of the U.K.

Q5: What are the takeaways from the Strait of Hormuz Crisis for corporate sustainability objectives?

Our biggest takeaway is that sustainability is a component of running a successful company, but not a defining objective. It has generally been overstated in importance, especially by a segment of the finance world in Europe and the United States that has pushed for these objectives to gain in prominence. Companies don’t exist for “sustainability.” It never made any sense to pressure oil & gas companies, as an example, to aggressively transition to low-carbon technologies in the name of Net Zero and sustainability. Companies exist to generate competitive profitability and growth for investors. Full stop.

In order to generate long-term profitability and growth, various sustainability objectives (industry and company specific) for sure need to be met. Employee health and safety is at the top of the list along with ensuring the surrounding community to a given asset is also not harmed. Community engagement is core to any company’s license to operate, especially when new growth plans are being pursued. The ultimate list is longer than what is mentioned here, but the point is that this area broadly does not separately merit high profile attention any more than do other critical corporate functions like human resources, legal, cybersecurity, treasury, and so forth. They all contribute to running a successful company.

Q6: What are some contemporary examples of “sustainability” objectives you believe need to be addressed?

Examples of current sustainability issues that we believe should be proactively addressed (not intended to be an exhaustive list):

• Water disposal in the Permian Basin and water usage by AI datacenters are hot button issues that communities understandably want answers to.

• We have long supported and continue to support near zero methane flaring/venting objectives for the oil & gas industry. This is a topic we have been pleasantly surprised to see the environmental community focus on globally rather than more narrowly just in the United States, Canada, or Europe, as is often the case with activists. We were also pleased to see the progress US companies have made in recent years per the World Bank (Exhibit 1).

Exhibit 2: US producers have reduced flaring intensity

Source: World Bank

• We believe oil & gas, power sector, and hyperscaler/data center companies all have room for improvement in proactively engaging with the public on their industries, how they contribute to jobs, taxes, and economic development. It is the rare executive that is capable of speaking in normal, human, non-corporate speak language.

In contrast, we do not believe a company’s carbon emissions profile is relevant to its “license to operate” in a given community—a point often pushed by those advocating most loudly for Net Zero policies. No normal human being anywhere spends any time thinking about this. Putting activists aside, no regular person is protesting an oilfield or data center due to its carbon emissions intensity. Water impacts? Yes. Noise? Yes. Particulate pollution? Yes. Traffic? Yes. Carbon emissions? Give me a break.

Q7: What should companies do with previously articulated Net Zero objectives?

Pragmatically speaking, we recognize the significant pressure companies around the world were under during 2020-2023 to articulate company-specific “Net Zero by 2050” objectives. That said, very few if any could possibly have met those goals, since the wider world has never been even remotely on track for Net Zero be it by 2050 or any other year. The Strait of Hormuz Crisis and general geopolitical turmoil is helping more politicians and policy makers recognize that healthy energy policy starts and stops with reliability and affordability. In the interest of being transparent and sincere, companies should be truthful about whether sticking with prior Net Zero aspirations is something they actually think is (1) in the best interest of their companies and (2) is possible on any time horizon that can be modeled today.

Q8: What can hyperscalers learn from the oil & gas industry?

Key lessons:

• You will never appease climate activists. Focus on optimizing for growth and profitability.

• Your prior Net Zero objectives never had a chance of being achieved, especially if including so-called scope 3 emissions. Net Zero does not make sense at the individual company level.

• Economic development, of which the technology sector today is a huge driver, is 100% correlated with clean air and clean water. Richer societies are better equipped than poorer regions to adapt to a broad range of environmental and climate issues. Americans and the wider world is overall better off that our leading technology companies exist in a similar way that we are fortunate to have healthy, vibrant, and profitable energy and power companies.

• Speak sincerely and directly to the general public and the communities where you are investing about the actual impacts of your projects. You can’t outsource this function. It starts with the CEO and then filters down. Skip the corporate speak and language of appeasement.

• Vocally push back on policies that weaken domestic energy development opportunities in any region in which you are investing.

⚡️On A Personal Note: Gone Shootin’

The last time I shot a gun was in the 4th grade in what was then called Indian Guides. That almost certainly is not the name today; I think in New Jersey it is now called “Adventure Guides” which frankly is kind of lame. I believe we appropriately remembered and honored Native Americans under the original name, but society apparently disagrees with that perspective. Credit to my wife’s brother’s wife, who hails from the Golden State of all places, for the brilliant idea to go clay pigeon shooting during our vacation last week to The Cotswolds, about 2 hours west of London.

Boy was that fun!!! We had a great instructor, Patrick I think was his name—not a fan of London or Londoners apparently; a country guy that was local to the area. There were six in our group. My brother-in-law, his wife and son, and my two daughters. All first timers. All of us successfully hit those crazy clay pigeons popping up in the field. Great job Patrick! Great job in-laws and daughters!

I definitely need to practice. I had some beginners luck on the initial six shells, I want to say with five successful strikes on the ones going straight up in the air. But the ones that were flying away from us gave me more trouble and I was consistently low-left and a bit early. It was oddly tiring. A shot gun is definitely heavier than a golf club. As a second hobby, it’s a keeper. Seems safter than pickleball as a golf complement.

⚖️ Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of a moderately edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.

We continue our July series focused on Strait of Hormuz Crisis takeaways with a focus on energy and power sub-sector stock performance. We take a look back at growth and profitability since 2021, which has yielded some surprising results and areas for improvement.

Our key messages from the four charts we go through this week are as follows:

• Energy versus Tech has been inversely correlated since 2021, with Energy surprisingly having kept pace with the Mag-7 over this time frame.

• Despite improving growth expectations Utilities have lagged on higher interest rates. The question is when does improving growth expectations for utilities overcome what might be an ongoing interest rate headwind.

• Traditional energy equities are again discounting below normal oil prices…perhaps not quite trough conditions, but something only a little bit better.

• There has been considerable sub-sector divergence on profitability and growth over the last 5 years, with some surprising winners, losers, and areas for improvement. LNG, IPPs, midstream, and downstream sectors are all winners. There is scope for improvement from IOCs, both oily and gassy E&Ps, and oil services.

Timestamps:

0:00 Introduction

2:39 Energy and Tech Inversely Correlated Since 2021

5:16 Utilities Lag On Higher Treasury Yields

6:34 Forward Oil Outperforming Oil Equities

10:30 Sector Growth and CROCI Comparison

14;44 On A Personal Note

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

Subscribe to receive all content. Also available at Veriten.com.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

We are now recording an audio version of written posts that we will upload to Apple, Spotify, and YouTube, which you can listen to by clicking the play button above.

We continue our SoH (Strait of Hormuz) Crisis Takeaways series with a check-in on our Obliterating Peak Oil Demand theme that rejects the idea that anyone can know today what decade let alone year oil demand will ultimately peak and subsequently plateau or decline. We have yet to see a scenario from major agencies, banks, or consultants that solves for everyone on Earth some day becoming energy rich, which, in our view, is the ultimate direction of travel. The massive unmet energy needs of the other 7 billion people on Earth points to growth in all current major energy sources and technologies. Energy’s natural hierarchy of needs points to a high motivation by especially billion-person-scale developing countries to crack the code on new energy technologies. How is there still any doubt that we will of course need rising amounts of both traditional and new energy sources and technologies for many, many decades to come?

There is some thought among energy observers that the SoH Crisis will accelerate the timing of “peak oil demand.” It is a view we reject. Even under our base-case of a messy stalemate between the U.S. and Iran and volatile oil flows out of the Strait, we are highly skeptical we could see the kind of sustained, large-scale substitution out of refined oil products into alternatives that would result in even a plateauing of global oil demand at global GDP rates of 2.7% or higher. In fact, growth in EVs (electric vehicles) and LNG (liquefied natural gas) trucks is likely helping economic resiliency in countries like China and others in southeast Asia during a time of SoH-driven stress and therefore keeping global GDP at better levels than might otherwise be the case. The ultimate driver of all forms of energy, including crude oil, is GDP growth. The biggest risk from the SoH Crisis was (or maybe still is) a deep global recession that would hit demand for oil and other energy sources in the short run.

The combination of the April 7 ceasefire and June 17 MOU—as imperfect as both agreements have been—significantly reduced worst-case “$200 oil / global recession” risks. There is also plenty of evidence that neither side is looking for the kind of prolonged full-scale ground war that could drive a more substantial and ongoing disruption of oil supplies out of the region. As such, we are skeptical the duration of the crisis has been anywhere near long enough to accelerate more meaningful behavioral change, even when measured over a longer time frame than just the next few years.

As always, we keep an open mind and welcome pushback or different points of view. With that said, our confidence in this core view has only grown since we first unveiled our “Obliterating Peak Oil Demand” series three years ago (here). We use the popular Q&A format to address the main questions we receive on the failing peak oil demand thesis.

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Question 1 (Q1): You had pushed back on the so-called “peak oil demand” view that was most prevalent during peak “energy transition-climate crisis” years of 2021-2023. Does the SoH Crisis mean “peak oil demand” is back on the table?

Answer (A): No.

We continue to push back hard on the idea that anyone today can model with any certainty when oil demand will peak, plateau, or possibly decline when the unmet energy needs of the other 7 billion people on Earth are as massive as they are. That has been and remains a core ethos of ours. There are no major external forecasters that we are aware of that have modeled full global prosperity—i.e., everyone on Earth enjoying the basic human right of being energy rich.

Q2: Isn’t there growing evidence that peak oil demand is at least on the horizon even if you don’t think it is imminent?

A: No, there isn’t. In fact just the opposite. There is more evidence that it is nowhere in sight.

At a big picture level, we disaggregate growth in oil demand into two component pieces: (1) global GDP growth; and (2) an “efficiency gain” metric that is the change in the number of barrels it takes to generate a $ of GDP (Exhibit 1). Incorporated into our efficiency gain metric are all the things that would improve the multiplier of GDP to oil demand, including substitute products like EVs and LNG trucks as well as fuel economy gains. It’s all captured in that one metric.

Our key conclusion is that every year we use slightly fewer barrels to generate a $ of GDP, but that the rate of improvement is well short of what is needed to even flatten global oil demand. The common mistake of every “peak oil demand” forecast we have seen, in particular those from the IEA and leading major oil companies, is a massive over-estimation of future efficiency gains. Typically, too quick of a ramp in EVs and other substitute products is compounded by an assumption that despite fuel economy targets having been missed by 75%-95% historically, they will be achieved at something approaching a 100% success ratio going forward. It has honestly been ridiculous how willing otherwise smart analysts have been to over model and at times double count those two impacts in particular.

Exhibit 1: Oil demand derivation

Source: Goldman Sachs Research, IEA, OPEC, Veriten.

Q3: What is the risk to oil demand?

A: It would be extended recession-like global GDP.

Global GDP hasn’t exactly been booming over the past several years, but at 2.7%-2.8% it has been good enough to drive around a 1 million b/d per year oil demand growth reality. Our number one concern when it comes to oil demand is always the health of the global economy. It is why we did not celebrate (from the perspective of traditional energy companies) the upside risk of $150-$200/bbl as you saw from the perma bulls. The reason being that the kind of oil price needed to motivate a global recession is hardly a bullish outcome for traditional energy companies.

Q4: Aren’t rising EV sales a risk to future oil demand?

A: We disagree with the ICE (internal combustion engine) versus EV zero sum mindset that almost everyone has (there is common ground among the climate-is-the-top-priority crowd and oil sector enthusiasts on perceiving ICE vs EV as a zero sum game).

There is no chance that especially the billion-person scale economies like China and India are going to want to subject themselves to the magnitude of oil imports that would come from achieving rich-world economic status but only with traditional energy products. We already know this from observing China and fully expect India to diversify its energy sources and technologies in order to ultimately limit oil imports relative to a scenario where alternatives did not exist. We have long championed the benefits of energy source and technology diversification as good for all forms of energy. As noted above, we believe global recession is the biggest risk to oil demand.

In the case of the SoH Crisis, we believe new technologies like EVs, LNG trucks, and the ability to work-from-home via Zoom and related products has added critical flexibility to offsetting a major supply loss as has occurred with the SoH closure. To be sure, that flexibility alone did not remove the worst-case scenario of oil needing to spike to $150-$200/bbl in order to force global recession, but it certainly was part of a series of mitigations along with the material SPR and commercial inventory reductions and pipeline redirections.

Let us repeat this to ensure the point is made: growth in new technologies like EVs, LNG trucks, and Zoom has been positive for oil demand in that it has been a contributing factor to ensuring ongoing global economic growth.

Q5: Won’t the SoH Crisis drive an even faster shift to non-ICE vehicles?

A: Yes, we are bullish on global EV sales, especially in large parts of Asia.

New vehicle sales are as good of an indication of healthy economic growth as any. If EV sales are growing rapidly, this is good for economic activity and hence oil demand.

Q6: But those EV sales represent miles driven that won’t be using gasoline?

A: Correct. But they will also represent economic activity that perhaps wouldn’t be occurring helping support other oil products.

We would guard against analyses that show “oil demand avoided based on EV sales to date” we see being published by the IEA and others. Like the issues we see with peak oil demand in general as well as the on again-off again “oil glut” calls, these single-variable extrapolations do not tell the full story for oil demand. The fact is that you don’t see the impact in our efficiency gain metric.

To be sure, we agree that the outlook for gasoline is weaker than for other products like diesel, jet fuel, and petrochemical feedstocks, in part driven by rising EV sales. However, the existing ICE car park is massive and is expected to grow at a modest clip in the coming decades as highlighted in OPEC’s most recent World Oil Outlook 2026 report (link).

Looking at Exhibit 2, it is not obvious to us that gasoline demand will globally decline in the coming decades—a view that even many in the oil sector broadly accept. It also highlights how massive the existing stock of ICE vehicles are; the curve slopes slightly up and shows no signs of bending down.

Exhibit 2: ICE car park rises slowly, while EV car park rises much faster of a small base

Source: OPEC World Oil Outlook 2026 report.

Q7: Robotaxis and autonomous driving: An EV accelerant?

A: Yes, quite possibly.

The automotive and technology aspiration of autonomous mobility continues to make significant strides. We are optimistic on the progress to date and have high expectations that robotaxis and other forms of autonomous mobility are a present day opportunity, with the technology likely to grow significantly in the years ahead. While notionally an ICE vehicle should have as much of an opportunity to be autonomous as an EV, it is our understanding at this admittedly early stage of development that EVs will secure a more meaningful share of autonomous miles driven. This bears further analysis and an evaluation of how trends ultimately develop. The fact that EVs are inherently more “software oriented” is the reason often given for the EV preference for autonomous mobility.

We will repeat the perspective we have maintained throughout this post: if the rise of autonomous mobility leads to increased economic activity—even if overwhelmingly met by EVs—it will benefit overall oil demand though non-gasoline refined products would benefit to a greater degree.

Q8: Diversification benefits of having both ICE and EV?

A: The idea that all economic activity should be tied to the electric grid is absurd.

No country should or is going to aspire to “electrify everything.” At a country level, having a mix of energy sources and technologies is likely to create the greatest resiliency in an uncertain world. Currently, most countries are over-exposed to ICE vehicles as we can see in the car park comparison in Exhibit 2. The ability to avoid odd-even license plate days is enhanced by a greater EV share. As we have now said or implied several times in this post, we expect significant growth in EV sales in the decades ahead, outpacing growth in ICE vehicles.

⚡️On A Personal Note: Onto My Third Tesla

Since purchasing my first Tesla on my birthday in 2015—a 2015 Model S—I have been an EV-first driver for personal travel. In 2020, we traded in the Model S for a 2020 Model 3. About a month ago, we traded in that Model 3 for a 2026 Model Y. I love driving a Tesla and prefer it over a comparably priced ICE vehicle (I have no doubt that there are high-end ICE vehicles that would be more fun to drive than any of my Teslas). A few observations:

• Full Self Driving (Supervised) is awesome and a better experience than any equivalent driver assist technology I have tried from other companies. It’s not a close call in my view. Tesla appears to be well ahead of the competition on this. Unfortunately, I have not had the opportunity to try any of the Chinese EVs, which I will aim to do in the future.

• A Model Y or Model 3, in my view, is currently a better value than comparable ICE vehicles in similar performance or price categories. As we have been shopping to refresh our two 2020-era cars, this has been a surprise. I would note that this is true at a time that there is no federal EV tax credit.

• We had been hanging onto an ICE vehicle for long-distance travel. But with my parents now ten minutes away, instead of 5-7 hours away, there is no obvious reason to not consider being an all Tesla family.

• On the last long distance trip we took, we rented a (ICE) minivan from Avis. This seems like a reasonable path forward. We aren’t ever going to own a minivan, but our golden doodle was actually quiet and comfortable while being driven in it.

Last week we took a trip to western Pennsylvania to visit relatives. It is about 250 miles in each direction. Overall, our experience with FSD was outstanding.

• FSD for long-distance travel is an absolute no brainer, game changer. It is a huge improvement over equivalent driver-assist technology from the competitors I have tried.

• There are two scenarios where I had less comfort: (1) construction zones with the concrete barriers during times of busy but flowing traffic including many 18-wheelers. The Model Y on FSD did not make a mistake we noticed, but the rate of speed (it drove at the speed limit) was faster on turns with trucks in the next lane than I would have attempted; (2) I made a different decision on whether to swerve or go over a deceased small animal than what FSD picked (it wanted to swerve).

• FSD was especially outstanding during slow-moving traffic congestion.

• Many smaller decisions it made to me seemed very “human like,” meaning it is how I would have approached the situation.

• I was especially pleased to see that it recognized a person approaching a cross walk and came to a stop so they could cross (this was in a residential area of town).

Autonomous driving is unquestionably a future that is fast approaching. Is the technology perfect? Of course not. But neither are human drivers. A Tesla does not text or drink and drive as an example. And while you can question some of the choices it made, it makes none of them due to drowsiness, distraction, or other stressors.

Autonomous mobility is going to be a game changer in reducing overall traffic accidents and fatalities. It is going to be a game changer for people like my parents that have had to give up driving; they are both good with technology and could easily handle a future, improved version of FSD. I think autonomous mobility will be positive for miles driven and economic activity. Even if it is overwhelmingly EV focused in passenger vehicles, it is going to be positive for GDP growth and therefore oil demand.

⚖️ Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email. Also available on https://veriten.com.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of a moderately edited transcript using the blue Download button below.

We are back from a week off celebrating America’s 250th birthday and ahead of some upcoming travel over the remainder of July. We are planning to do a series of videos over the next few weeks on our takeaways at this juncture of the ongoing Strait of Hormuz Crisis. As usual, our focus will be on the longer-term themes and implications, rather than attempting a play-by-play of current events.

In fact, as we are recording this on Wednesday July 8, there are renewed military strikes happening, President Trump has been quoted as saying the 14-point MOU signed in mid-June is over, and oil prices are rallying in response. Going forward, we expect lots of twists and turns for crude oil, refined products, and LNG markets as regional turmoil dials up and dials down. It is all part of our broader Geopolitical Super Vol mega theme.

Even so, there are some long-term takeaways from this crisis that are emerging, which is the focus of these videos. We start the series this week by reflecting on the top surprises and non-surprises at this juncture of the crisis. We have three main surprises around crude oil, refining, and the health of the broader economy and stock market as well as several non-surprises that relate to those topics that we will run through.

Timestamps:

0:00 Introduction

2:03 #1 Surprise: Impact of China’s import reductions on crude oil

8:42 #2 Surprise: Refining most disrupted from geopolitical turmoil

12:38 #3 Surprise: Resiliency of AI trade and S&P 500

15:16 On A Personal Note – World Cup Surprises and Non-Surprises

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

Subscribe to receive all content. Also available at Veriten.com.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of a moderately edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.

This week we are starting a new series that we’ll do on occasion we are calling a sentiment check as way to talk about hot button issues we are getting questions on. As always, our aim is to provide longer-term perspectives and not hot take reactions. Three topics today: (1) Is Negative AI Sentiment A Risk to Power Demand? (2) Revenge of the Perma Crude Oil Bears? And (3) Is “Big Oil” Price Gouging?

0:00 Introduction

0:42 Negative AI Sentiment A Risk to Power Demand?

14:17 Revenge of the Perma Crude Oil Bears?

28:08 Is “Big Oil” Price Gouging?

32:27 On A Personal Note – World Cup Fans!

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

Subscribe to receive all content. Also available at Veriten.com.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of a moderately edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.

This week we provide our latest thoughts on the Strait of Hormuz Crisis and the news of a “peace deal” having been reached between the U.S. and Iran. We recorded this on Wednesday, June 17, two days ahead of the expected signing on Friday, June 19. We think these comments will hold up even if there are any unexpected developments prior to Saturday publication. If not, we will follow up on Twitter-X and LinkedIn.

0:00 Introduction

0:43 Lee Raymond – Greatest CEO of My Career

4:24 SoH Crisis – Big Picture Thoughts On Oil Markets

8:07 SoH Crisis – Crude Oil S/D

19:12 War & Peace – USA vs Iran

21:38 Long-Term Energy Macro Implications

25:55 WWLRD If He Was An Active CEO Now?

31:10 On A Personal Note – A New Top Life Moment

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

Subscribe to receive all content. Also available at Veriten.com.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of a moderately edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.

A few oil macro oriented thoughts today following an interesting week that started at a fuels distribution conference in Las Vegas just prior to last weekend and ended in Vienna on Monday at the OPEC Secretariat where I moderated one of two non-OPEC supply outlook panels as part of OPEC’s 19th Annual Technical Meeting of OPEC and Non-OPEC Countries.

Our key message today is that the promise of the Strait of Hormuz re-opening following the ceasefire that was announced just about two months ago is giving way to an entrenched stalemate that suggests company executives and investors should brace for both the opportunity and turmoil that comes from big jumps in oil prices but also the inevitable pullbacks that follow as supply/demand clears. We expect that process of super volatility to be a repeatable feature of the current era. While high volatility is often thought of as depressing equity valuations, which is true, it also will depress the instinct by companies to spend capital, which in turn will prove supportive of profitability. How best to value volatile cash flows in publicly-traded equities is always a challenge and a theme we will continue to focus on.

We are including the link to the ZeroHedge webinar Arjun did with Jeff Currie as discussed (here).

0:00 Introduction

1:40 ZeroHege “Oil Debate” With Jeff Currie

5:56 Valuing Oil-Exposed Equities In A Super Vol Macro Backdrop

8:06 OPEC Meeting Takeaways

10:34 On A Personal Note

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

Subscribe to receive all content. Also available at Veriten.com.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

We are now recording an audio version of written posts that we will upload to Apple, Spotify, and YouTube, which you can listen to by clicking the play button above.

As the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) Crisis completes its third month and on-again/off-again peace talks drag on, we are starting to see the outlines of various structural themes emerging, and, as importantly, some that are not. Thematically we see the following:

• Power Surge! Our Power Surge! super-cycle theme has not only not been knocked off track by the SoH Crisis, but has likely been enhanced based on “the four Ds” of pragmatic energy policy orientation we discuss below. Recently completed 1Q 2026 earnings season shows the AI (artificial intelligence) and broader digital transformation theme is as strong as ever.

• Geopolitical Super Vol. Geopolitical Super Vol remains our commodity macro framework, in particular for crude oil prices. Since Russia-Ukraine and through SoH-to-date, we have resisted crude oil super-cycle framings while also, importantly, rejecting perma bear doom-and-gloom. The unforgiving math of global oil demand being forced down to circa 95 million b/d of supply from around 105 million b/d pre-crisis suggests recession is the most likely clearing mechanism rather than a structural increase in long-dated oil prices in the event a significant disruption to flows persists. To be clear, we do see scope for a modest increase in long-end oil on the order of $10/bbl to account for both cost inflation and an increased geopolitical risk premium.

• Molecules to markets. In our view, getting molecules to markets is the more pressing strategic imperative for countries than simply trying to find the molecules in the first place. In traditional energy, this puts a premium on well-positioned midstream and downstream assets. In the upstream business, there is always an opportunity to find acreage that is well positioned on the future cost curve. Having a midstream or downstream solution (e.g., LNG) may be an increasing success factor for larger E&P (exploration and production) companies.

• New business models > pure-play (for larger companies). The era of extreme pure-play specialization we think will fade, or at least will no longer be the dominant ask of investors. Business model evolution is likely to continue to separate leaders from laggards. Examples we find intriguing include pressure pumpers and midstream companies diversifying into behind-the-meter (BTM) power, US shale gas producers expanding into midstream and potentially LNG, refiners that have grown midstream capabilities, midstream companies that have grown export opportunities, and the expanded commercial trading opportunities that larger companies have pursued. The list is growing.

• Brownfield > greenfield (usually). The advantage of doing more from existing assets is something both countries and companies have in common. Brownfield almost always beats greenfield on profitability and speed-to-market, though a best-in-class greenfield project like Guyana oil is the type of exception that exists to the general rule.

From an energy policy perspective, the Strait of Hormuz Crisis reveals what we are now calling the four Ds of country-level energy policy aspiration:

• Do as much Domestic production as possible;

• Diversify energy sources and technologies;

• Do more from existing assets; and

• embrace Digital transformation and AI.

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The Four Ds of Pragmatic Energy Policy

The four Ds are the pragmatic policy implication of country leaders recognizing energy’s natural hierarchy of needs (Exhibit 1). On the right side of Exhibit 1, we rank (higher on list is better) resource rich countries and resource challenged areas in terms of federal policy orientation that recognizes energy’s natural hierarchy of needs and implementation of the four Ds relative to a given country’s strengths and weaknesses.

Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates among resource rich regions and China among resource challenged areas we see as having favorable federal energy policy orientations. Laggards are not surprising: Western Europe, California, Canada, and Australia. What KSA, UAE, and China have in common are national leadership that emphasizes the ideas of “all of the above,” maximum (or optimal) output of what you can control, and unapologetic “their own country first” mentalities.

Super-Spiked subscribers know we have a very favorable view of Canada’s oil and gas potential and the leading companies in the province of Alberta. We had an unfavorable view of the federal energy policies pursued by the prior Trudeau regime, with the jury out on the current Carney administration. On the latter, we appreciate that the rhetoric has improved off a low starting point. The proof will be in the policy implementation pudding.

No country should aspire to follow the path of California or Western Europe and their “climate first” ideology (dishonorable mention goes to many states in the US northeast). Sadly, poor energy policy choices made in those areas are going to mean that less fortunate consumers and businesses in developing Asia suffer from being outbid for needed energy like LNG, jet fuel, and diesel during times of stress, as we last saw in the early days of Russia-Ukraine. It has been some time since we have done a deep dive on Australia; our sense would be that it is in the Canada category of having substantial oil and gas resources that the world would massively benefit from, but is being held back by ill-advised climate-first ideology by its national leaders.

Exhibit 1: A Hierarchy of Energy Needs & Country Policy Objectives and Orientation

Source: Veriten.

Doing More From Existing Assets

In previous issues of Super-Spiked, we have discussed three of the Ds: do as much domestic production as possible, diversify energy sources and technology, and embrace digital transformation and AI. Therefore, in this post we will expand on the “do more from existing assets” theme.

• A major advantage the developed world has over China, India, and other developing areas is a large installed base of assets and infrastructure. Prematurely retiring old power plants in the name of “energy transition” and “The Climate Crisis” is the type of 2020-2023 mistake that has hurt competitiveness and affordability in the United States and Western Europe. In power generation, we are intrigued with trying to answer the question of how much new generation from legacy sources (e.g., natural gas, BTM, and traditional nuclear) is needed versus how much new generation technology is needed (e.g., fuel cells, enhanced geothermal, advanced nuclear) versus how much can existing grid utilization be improved via flexible loads and various grid enhancing technologies. How much more can we get from existing is important to how much we need from the other two options.

• In crude oil markets, we do not believe there is the urgency to figure out “what’s next” from a resource perspective as there was in the 2004-2014 super-cycle. To be clear, this comment is intended at the macro level; individual companies are almost always in need of figuring out what’s next. Exploration and capital spending is likely to grow but we do not believe the kind of re-rating that happened during China/BRICs is warranted now. Rather we are most intrigued with what companies are doing to extend asset life (i.e., resource to production ratio) via a combination of technology application, business development, and midstream/downstream investment that can ensure molecules get moved to markets and turned into usable end products. Ironically, the Middle East looks like a compelling upstream opportunity for western oil and gas firms, given improved fiscal terms in certain areas. We have long held a favorable view of Canada (our concerns about its federal energy policies notwithstanding) and Alaska. Recent developments in many Latin American countries warrant a fresh look at the region for western players.

• The largest areas that seem ripe to “do more from existing” include US shale oil, US shale gas, Middle East oil, Canada’s oil sands, Venezuela oil, and developed market power grids.

Growth and opportunity

The five areas of energy where we are most confident in growth include:

• US and global power generation

• Midstream and downstream infrastructure for crude oil and various metals and minerals

• Grid enhancing technologies

• US and global natural gas

• Renewables and storage

The long-term opportunity to grow nuclear power is going to prove to be compelling for many countries, justifying the required patience in terms of time to development. Nuclear is the ultimate baseload, domestic, clean energy source.

We remain open-minded about emerging and new energy technologies. We are seeing current growth in fuel cells and optimism about enhanced geothermal on the power generation side of the business. The SoH Crisis will accelerate adoption of electric vehicles and LNG trucks in particular in oil importing countries for diversification and affordability reasons.

The success of new business models should diminish investor and activist demand for pure-plays

There is a misperception that investors prefer pure-plays or that investors only want more dividends and stock buybacks. Investors prefer companies that generate superior profitability with differentiated growth. Both are needed to sustainably outperform: profitability AND growth.

The challenge in mature, cyclical sectors is that corporate over-enthusiasm for growth usually erodes profitability to the point where investors demand a disavowal of growth in favor of profitability and returning capital to shareholders. To be sure, if structural demand growth for a given commodity is something like 1%-2% per year, the expected growth rates for the largest companies within that sector is unlikely to be any more than +/- 1%-2% of the broader demand trajectory.

As businesses mature and growth slows, the demand by investors to focus on sub-parts of the business often increases in order to enhance the combination of per share growth and profitability for a particular business segment. The post-2014 oil super-cycle bust and growth in U.S. shale turbocharged the demand for pure-plays, especially within the traditional oil & gas value chains. Certain pure-play shale oil producers, midstream companies, and refiners in fact performed exceptionally well.

Power is clearly in a super-cycle and traditional oil and gas is operating with a Geopolitical Super Vol macro backdrop (a dramatic improvement from the post super-cycle bust phase of 2015-2020) and business opportunities abounding in the different product lines and geographies.

SoH Crisis FAQ

Question 1: Has an oil super-cycle begun?

Answer: No. Our core view remains Geopolitical Super Vol, not super-cycle.

Q2: Have the odds of “peak oil demand” increased?

A: No, we don’t think so. However, we are concerned that if the Strait remains significantly disrupted that the painful adjustment down in global oil demand could mean that we spend a good part of the remainder of this decade recovering back to pre-crisis demand levels as incremental supply is brought online. In our view, the timing of a more permanent peak in oil demand is unknowable so long as the other seven billion people on Earth continue to use only a fraction of the energy The Lucky 1 Billion of Us take for granted.

Q3: Isn’t AI and the resulting power demand growth forecasts a bubble waiting to pop?

A: No or, perhaps more accurately, not at this time. The fact that numerous stock markets like the U.S. (S&P 500), Japan (NIKKEI), and South Korea (KOSPI) are at or near all-time highs may indeed reflect complacency with the risk of global recession due to the ongoing SoH Crisis. We would differentiate stock market complacency with an AI bubble. We see it in the areas where we spend a lot of time: digital transformation and the application of AI is a game changer for numerous businesses. The stock market may well experience a major correction if the world tips into recession. Whatever short-term setback that might mean for near-term power generation we think would be akin to the Great Financial Crisis hit to oil demand in the middle of the China/BRICs super-cycle of 2004-2014, i.e., it was temporary.

Q4: Don’t investors prefer “pure-plays” over diversified companies?

A: That view is missing our point. Investors prefer companies with competitive profitability and differentiated growth opportunities. The demand for “pure-plays” typically is the result of a mature sector experiencing a structural downcycle and investors being disappointed on both profitability and growth. And for sure, some companies should remain as pure-plays. The larger a company’s market capitalization and overall size, the less we think a pure-play business model makes sense, be it basin or geography or asset type or business line. For small-caps and new technologies, the pure-play business model is often logical.

Q5: So E&Ps will merge with refiners?

A: No, we aren’t expecting that type of integration or diversification. A future “integrated E&P” likely means some combination of midstream and commercial exposure as opposed to a historical upstream-refining mix, as an example.

⚡️On A Personal Note: Work Hard. Golf Hard.

It’s been a great three-week stretch of Spring golf ramp-up. 8 rounds in 5 days in and around Troon, Scotland the first week of May and then our NJ club’s flagship member-member Governor’s Trophy tournament over Memorial Day weekend featuring 45 holes of match play over 2 days. Day 2 of Governor’s featured a good Scottish cold snap of low 50s weather and a light drizzle. Glad my rain pants got more work in and happy to be in sunny Houston as I finish writing this.

At Governor’s you can always see the short-game comfort from the returning Florida crowd versus those that stayed north over what is typically a 4-5 month winter hiatus. I failed to take advantage of part-time Houston residency this past winter and my partner and I didn’t win our flight for the first time since 2021. Five 3 puts—FIVE!!!—from yours truly in Round 2 and two more missed make-able putts in Round 3 were seven half-point giveaways we did not overcome. Based on my accounting, my partner cost us only 2 points versus my 3.5, so the disappointing performance is on me. I’ll need a stricter winter routine next year.

I will say the Scotland golf intensity helped stamina at Governor’s. The intensity and deliberate pace of hole-by-hole match play is usually mentally and physically draining. I didn’t feel that this year. For future reference: I need to play 36 more often! It forces an easier swing. It improves mental resilience. Seems better than a cold plunge.

Does a high level of golf intensity make you a better energy equity analyst, advisor, or board member? For sure it does. There is no question about this. Are we advising our companies to settle for mediocrity? That an 8% return on capital is good enough? That sector average TSR is fine? Of course not.

Work Hard. Golf Hard.

A Lot of Great Golf In Scotland: Western Gailes Near The Top Of My List

Source: Super-Spiked selfie.

The Calm Before The Governor’s Trophy Storm

Source: Super-Spiked.

⚖️ Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email. Also available on https://veriten.com.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of a moderately edited transcript using the blue Download button below. There is no PowerPoint slide deck this week.

This week we introduce the topic of how to think about energy equity valuations given a Geopolitical Super Vol macro backdrop. Traditional valuation metrics like EV/EBITDA are likely to prove especially unhelpful at a time of major geopolitical uncertainty and commodity volatility. We harken back to the framework we used in the early 2010s for US refiners when Brent-WTI first blew out to around $20/bbl when surging shale oil production unexpectedly filled up pipelines and infrastructure. At the time, investors treated every press release of a contemplated pipeline reversal as solving the bottleneck. Spreads did ultimately narrow meaningfully, as expected, but the transient “above normal” cash flows were not worth zero as the market was initially ascribing. Our framework gave “one-time” credit to temporary cash flows and full credit for our estimate of mid-cycle earnings. This is not a perfect analogy for a geopolitical event like the Strait of Hormuz, but we think the framework is a good one for this environment.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

Subscribe to receive all content. Also available at Veriten.com..

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of a moderately edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.

This is the 100th Super-Spiked video podcast. We’ve also had an additional 114 written posts that for no obvious reason we account for with its own numbering system, a point that we are sure is of interest to no one and we will merge going forward in case you are wondering why we’ll jump to #215 next week. In celebration of our 100th episode, we recorded this a week early ahead of a guy’s golf trip to Scotland, where we’ll be playing Turnberry, Prestwick, Royal Troon, and Western Gailes. 8 rounds in 5 days is way to ambitious for a bunch of guys in their upper 50s. More on that in the On A Personal Note at the end of this video.

Our key focus this week will be discussing how we think the world should think about energy macro scenarios. It should not surprise anyone that we do not believe the world will go back to viewing CO2 as an organizing principle for energy. We have been asked if not “net zero” then what? We attempt to answer that question this week. We start off by taking a look at the key themes from 2022 at the start of Super-Spiked. Those initial themes have stood the test of time.

This 100th episode is targeted at a combination of corporate executives, board members, policy people, and the macro economics and sustainability people within companies. It’s probably not for everyone, but that has been one of our philosophies. We are not looking to maximize views of Super-Spiked. We hope it will be accessible to everyone, but this one in particular is aimed at a smaller subset of key decision makers.

0:00 Introduction

2:06 Our Key Themes from 2022 Have Stood the Test of Time

11:40 Won’t Net Zero Make a Comeback in 2028?

17:31 If Not Net Zero, Then What?

21:46 How Should Energy Macro Scenarios Be Reframed?

23:30 On A Personal Note

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

Subscribe to receive all content. Also available at Veriten.com.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of a moderately edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.

This week we have some quick comments on a trio of topics including (1) macro risk/reward at the two-month anniversary of the Strait of Hormuz being closed, (2) UAE’s decision to withdraw from OPEC, and (3) the attractiveness of Canada for energy investment. All these themes fit well within our Geopolitical Super Vol theme.

0:00 Introduction

0:42 Macro risk/reward at the 2-month anniversary of the Strait of Hormuz being closed

8:27 UAE’s decision to withdraw from OPEC

13:08 The attractiveness of Canada for energy investment.

17:45 On A Personal Note

Subscribe to receive all content. Also available at Veriten.com.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

Subscribe to receive all content. Also available at Veriten.com.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

We are now recording an audio summary of written posts that we will upload to Apple, Spotify, and YouTube and you can listen to by clicking the button below.

This week we expand on the Energy Technology component of our Geopolitical Super Vol framework we introduced last week (here). The massive unmet energy needs of the other seven billion people on Earth were already driving investment in new energy technologies in particular for countries not blessed with sufficient domestic resources like crude oil, natural gas, or coal. A backdrop of structurally increased geopolitical uncertainty and turmoil, in particular amongst the largest economies in the world, will drive a doubling, tripling, and quadrupling down on a wide swath of new technologies that help meet energy needs. For The Lucky 1 Billion of Us, there is a need to invest in the technologies that allow our industries to compete in a host a new areas and to no longer simply cede all manufacturing to China and other Asian countries—as the U.S. and Western Europe have done over the past 25 years.

The new technology areas we are most interested in span four broad buckets:

• Grid optimization and enhancement

• Power generation

• Demand diversification opportunities, which encompasses areas like EVs (electric vehicles), LNG (liquefied natural gas) trucks, and energy efficiency

• Manufacturing and industrial competitiveness via physical AI, robotics, and automation

In this post we:

• differentiate between “Energy Tech,” which we believe has a very favorable outlook, and “Climate Tech,” the latter of which always seemed non-sensical to us.

• highlight the key areas we are watching most closely within the new technology buckets noted above.

• provide a progress report on hyperscaler profitability given the massive ramp in CAPEX seen by those companies.

• highlight Aramco as an AI and technology leader.

The opportunity for investment spans a broad spectrum of companies, technologies, and regions across a range of sectors including technology, industrials, traditional energy, new energies, power, infrastructure, metals, minerals, and mining. In a nutshell, Energy & Power + Technology + Industrials + Metals & Materials convergence.

For all Super-Spiked content, follow me at https://arjunmurti.substack.com or at https://veriten.com.

X (Twitter): @ArjunNMurti

DISCLAIMER

My views are my own and not attributable to any current or past affiliation.

CREDITS

Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman on Apple Music: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of a moderately edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.

As we teased in last week’s video, we want to expand on the evolution of our Super Vol commodity macro framework to explicitly rebrand it Geopolitical Super Vol. Since Russia-Ukraine, we have resisted the super-cycle framing that we think implies a smoothness to an upcycle like seen during the 2000s China-BRICs expansion period. The current environment is more like the 1970s—arguably a super-cycle, but one with a lot more choppiness and stress along the way. The current decade is shaping up to be a modern version of that era, with some important differences.

Although we are calling it Geopolitical Super Vol, we want to be clear on a few conclusions:

• We believe structural profitability and opportunities for growth are significant for a broad range of companies involved in traditional energy, new energy technology, the power value chain, and a host of raw materials.

• We believe the corresponding S&P 500 weighting for these sectors will increase meaningfully in the decade ahead.

• It is the inevitable sharp economic downturns along the way that motivates us sticking with and evolving the Super Vol language. You can’t demand that which does not exist—and that means sharp commodity spikes will be met with similarly sharp pullbacks during this era.

0:00 Introduction

2:41 A Break from The 1980-2020 World View

6:22 Implications for Energy Sector

10:48 Investing in Energy, Power, and Materials

14:44 Obliterating Pre-Iran Views

16:36 Obliterating Pre-Pre-Iran Views

18:53 Be Wary of Perma Bulls and Perma Bears

20:36 Be Wary of Net Zero Rebranded

21:58 Energy’s Natural Hierarch of Needs Remains Our North Star

22:39 FAQ #1: How do we think about global recession risk?

24:38 FAQ #2: What are lessons learned from the Asia Financial Crisis of 1997-9?

27:15 FAQ #3: What does the traditional energy profitability cycle look like in Geopolitical Super Vol?

28:51-32:10 On A Personal Note: Feedback vs Pushback

Subscribe to receive all content. Also available at Veriten.com..

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript using the blue Download button below. There is no power point slide deck this week.

For the past month we have been recording these videos several days in advance of publication and repeating the line that we hope peace will have been declared and the Strait reopened by the time of Saturday publication. Today the message is different. We are recording this late morning New York time on Thursday, April 9. A fragile ceasefire is sort of still in place and there is optimism that shipping volumes in and out of the Strait of Hormuz is on track to revert to something much higher than where we’ve been. It will of course take some time to get back to fully normal pre-War flows.

We were originally planning a longer discussion with a power point on evolving our Super Vol theme to more explicitly call it Geopolitical Super Vol, and we will touch upon that in this video podcast. But given the dramatic ceasefire news and major equity and commodity market moves, we will instead address nine questions and takeaways that we see from this crisis.

0:00 Introduction

1:30 Q1: What is your most important takeaway following the ceasefire?

2:50 Q2: In the short-term, will oil prices revert to pre-War levels?

6:02 Q3: What about oil prices over the medium-to-longer-term?

10:18 Q4: How was such a sizable shock not even worse in terms of impacts?

13:07 Q5: What is your take away for US consumers?

15:26 Q6: Where could we be better?

18:39 Q7: What about Canada?

20:30 Q8: Why are we sticking with Super Vol as our price framework?

23:04 Q9: So where do you come out on investment in both traditional and new energies?

24:54 On A Personal Note

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content. Also available at https://veriten.com.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript using the blue Download button below. There is no power point slide deck this week.

We spent the past week in Houston at the always great CERAWeek conference hosted by S&P Global. On behalf of all my colleagues at Veriten, a big thank you to Dan Yergin and the entire S&P Global team for putting on a great event.

CERAWeek 2026 came amidst what is now week four of the War in Iran and the continued de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz. We are recording this late on Wednesday, March 25 and as always hope that by the time this is released on Saturday morning, the Strait will have reopened to normal flows and the war ended. Its ongoing closure is simply untenable for the global economy. It is ultimately not good for energy companies, which is our focus area, even if current oil and gas pricing is elevated. A quick end to the war and the reopening of the Strait is the best-case scenario for energy companies everywhere.

This week we’ll provide some takeaways from CERAWeek 2026. We will bucket our takeaways in 3 key themes: (1) Macro outlook and scenarios; (2) The day after the war ends, what comes next for energy companies? (3) What unexpected changes will come from this crisis?

Our current plan is to not publish Super-Spiked over Easter/Passover weekend. We hope everyone is able to take some time off.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content. Also available at https://veriten.com.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.

We recorded this video podcast on Wednesday, March 18. This week we address five questions that have arisen regarding our views on the potential long-term impacts of the war in Iran.

• Does our Super-Spike oil demand destruction framework need adjusting for an abrupt geopolitical spike?

• What advance warning signs are we watching to assess economic damage and risks to capital markets?

• How does Iran impact our view of the traditional energy profitability cycle and terminal value recognition?

• Does the war change which regions we prefer for future CAPEX?

• How does Iran impact our Power Surge (power super-cycle) view?

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SLIDE 3: Super-Spike Framework In A Geopolitical Event?

Key points:

• Our March 2005 “Super-Spike” framework was used to assess how high oil prices could reach in order to slow oil demand growth to levels of available supply in an environment of structurally strong global GDP growth (BRICs expansion).

• We chose “super” to indicate the oil upcycle was multi-year in nature. We chose “spike” to remind ourselves and our clients that inevitably oil would surely rollover as cycle dynamics ensured a future period of oversupply (or under-demand).

• At the end of the day, the super-cycle is always one of sector profitability, with oil prices just one (important) component along with costs and capital intensity.

Current environment:

• The War in Iran and closure of the Strait of Hormuz is not analogous to that 2004-2014 period. This is an acute geopolitical disruption.

• Therefore, the framework we used over 2004-2014 has its limitations. Most notably, the sudden, dramatic jump in oil prices could mean that absolute levels do not need to reach the heights implied in the table on the right.

• It also suggests that “Super Vol” remains the better framing for energy commodity markets, including crude oil, oil products, and global spot LNG prices.

• Be wary of perma bears and perma bulls! For the bears: cycles have to play out. For bulls: it is always a cycle.

Exhibit 1: “Super-Spike” oil demand destruction framework

Source: Bloomberg, EIA, Federal Reserve, Veriten.

SLIDE 4: What Advance Warning Signs Are We Watching?

• Bull to bear can happen quickly and unexpectedly…July to December 2008 saw WTI drop from over $140/bbl to under $40/bbl.

• How can one differentiate between the July 2007 collapse of two Bear Stearns credit funds and the March 2023 issues with Silicon Valley Bank?

• So why worry this time? The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is simply intolerable if measured in months rather than weeks. The Age of Drones is a game changer, as we see in Russia-Ukraine.

• Fortress balance sheet, understanding controls and contracts, and aiming to not only survive but thrive during turmoil is the goal.

SLIDE 5: How Does Iran Impact The Profitability Cycle

Key points:

• It remains our view that traditional energy is firmly within a new profitability super-cycle that began in 2021 and would be expected to last 10+ years.

• Structural profitability cycles are inherently long-term in nature, 10-15 years up, 10-15 years down. The prior downcycle ran from a 2010 peak to a 2020 trough.

• Within the structural up or down cycles, numerous mini-cycles occur along the way. We believe 2025 marked a “normal” trough following a 2.5 years mini-downcycle.

• We rejected “oil glut” arguments that have prevailed since Liberation Day (April 2025). We agree that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz renders impossible a true accounting of who was right—oil glutters or us.

Current environment:

• We have been surprised by the fact that capital discipline at the sector level has remained intact.

• A true, multi-year upcycle would undoubtedly test discipline. But let’s judge it as we go: so far, so good.

• The main risk to seeing a “deep trough” (as opposed to normal) would be an extended closure of the Strait and a collapse in the global economy. We take this risk seriously.

• The best case scenario for the profitability cycle would be a quick re-opening that ensured limited adverse global GDP impacts.

Exhibit 2: Traditional energy sector profitability

Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, Veriten

SLIDE 6: Does The War Change Regional CAPEX Preferences?

• There are no absolutes…it is all opportunity specific.

• Oil exploration: Algeria vs UK North Sea circa 1991-1994.

• Natural gas import infrastructure: New York state (Appalachia) versus Germany (Russia).

• Many areas of the Middle East will attract capital irrespective of how this plays out.

• Between COVID, Russia-Ukraine, and now Strait of Hormuz, supply chain security will remain ascendent as an issue. Positive for NAM, power, energy source diversification (new and old tech).

SLIDE 7: What Impact Is There On Our Power Surge View?

• If a general financial/credit crisis materializes, this is a sector that commonly uses leverage and is now in growth mode.

• There will be winners and there will be losers.

• Execution: Understanding contracts, supply chains, and liquidity are all critical.

• At the end of the day, Power Surge we think persists beyond and through this war due to the need to grow power generation to address aging western world grids, industrial reshoring, electrification, and AI & digital transformation.

⚡️On A Personal Note: Super-Spike Reactions

For On A Personal Note, we refer you to the video where Arjun further reflects on his March 30, 2005 “Super-Spike period may be upon us” report.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

For Super-Spiked subscribers that prefer that written posts, we have included a lightly edited transcript of the video (blue download button below) along with a downloadable copy of the slide deck.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.

We recorded this video podcast on Wednesday, March 11. As we think everyone by now realizes, the Strait Hormuz is a critical bottleneck to not only crude oil exports from the region but also LNG from Qatar. We have no idea how long the current war will last. The longer it goes, the greater the risk of a painful energy crisis materializing. We do not think that fact is lost on anyone that is participating in or observing the conflict.

In this kind of very acute situation, an energy crisis would be bad for everyone be it citizens, governments, and even traditional energy companies over the long run as whatever benefit accrues from short term price appreciation would likely be lost from future economic weakness. No reasonable person in and around the energy sector is rooting for war. Even if shipping were to resume in coming days or weeks out of the Straight, we suspect the realization of what has long been considered a “worse case” geopolitical risk for oil markets—and now LNG—will motivate countries to pursue changes that mitigate this risk of future disruptions.

This week we have two key messages: (1) we revisit our “Super-Spike” oil demand destruction framework we first rolled out in March 2005 at Goldman Sachs. It was a career call for us. The basic points of our analysis we think stand the test of time. (2) we discuss various diversification opportunities that we think countries will or should take to reduce the risk of future disruptions long after this current crisis has hopefully abated.

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SLIDE 1: Cover Slide

SLIDE 2: Strait of Hormuz: Long-Term Impacts On Oil, LNG

• How will it be secured in an age of drones?

• Inverse COVID: Refreshing our oil demand destruction framework.

• Baseload energy diversification opportunities:

• US Natural Gas: Lots of growth, where to invest?

• Coal: A base-load domestic fuel, why not an EU comeback?

• Nuclear: Back in vogue, but how long to grow again in US/EU?

• Considerations: (1) What’s real, what’s hype? (2) Where in value chain to invest? (3) Who do you trust to allocate capital?

SLIDE 3: Revisiting Our Oil “Super-Spike” Framework

Key points:

• We used the US since it has sizeable demand and freely floating retail gasoline prices.

• Wider economy structurally outperforms gasoline.

• But that means a much higher nominal price is required to destroy demand versus a prior cycle.

• Gasoline demand is highly inelastic.

• Both absolute price and rate of change are relevant.

How to read the table/graph:

• The graph shows historic gasoline spending (demand x retail price) relative to personal consumer expenditures.

• Retail gasoline price equals the crude oil price + refining margin (to turn crude oil into gasoline) + gasoline taxes + “all other” (retail margin + other costs).

• The table holds retail margin plus all other as constant and shows sensitivities to varying levels of gasoline spending as a % of PCE and refining margins.

Exhibit 1: “Super-Spike” oil demand destruction framework

Source: Bloomberg, EIA, Veriten.

SLIDE 4: US Natural Gas: Lots of Growth, Where to Invest?

US natural gas markets have doubled over past 20 years and are on-track to grow substantially over next decade. US natural gas resource is plentiful; infrastructure-enabled access to higher-valued end markets is critical.

Exhibit 2: Global demand for US natural gas

Source: EIA, Veriten.

Exhibit 3: Gas value chain CROCI

Source: FactSet, Veriten

SLIDE 5: Coal: A Baseload Domestic Fuel, EU Comeback?

Growth in coal in China has swamped the reduction in EU and US coal use. We see no reason the EU & US could not, at a minimum, reverse the declines seen over the last 25 years. It’s a drop in the bucket! Moving factories from the EU & US to China is net negative for carbon emissions, geopolitical security, and labor markets in the EU and US.

Exhibit 4: Size of global power markets

Source: Energy Institute, Veriten

Exhibit 5: Growth in coal consumption

Source: Energy Institute, Veriten

SLIDE 6: Nuclear: Back In Vogue, But How Long To Grow?

Nuclear is again recognized as an important baseload fuel that can favorably add to system diversification. China is growing rapidly versus stagnation in the US and decline in EU. What opportunities exist to improve execution in the developed world? What is the viability (vs hype) of advanced technologies to boost growth?

Exhibit 6: Nuclear generation by country/region

Source: Energy Institute, Veriten.

⚡️On A Personal Note: 21 Years Later…

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

For Super-Spiked subscribers that prefer that written posts, we have included a lightly edited transcript of the video (blue download button below) along with a downloadable copy of the slide deck.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript using the blue Download buttons below.

We are coming to you from Houston following my participation earlier this week at the Aspen Institute’s Winter Energy Forum. This week we provide thoughts on Iran and the latest Middle East conflict. As usual, our focus is on what the long-term implications could be for companies and investors. Our ten initial long-term takeaways are as follows:

1 - Super Vol remains our commodity macro mantra.

2 - Middle East turmoil now as relevant to LNG (liquefied natural gas) as crude oil.

3 - Overhyped oil glut call.

4 - Energy source/technology diversification is a must for countries.

5 - Renewables and other new energies will continue to gain traction.

6 - The case for coal.

7- The case for Canada.

8 – Use unexpected free cash flow to reinforce fortress balance sheets.

9 - Undisruptable oil, gas, coal, copper, and critical minerals.

10 - Commerce over chaos and a brighter future for the Middle East.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

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• Veriten: You can also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

For Super-Spiked subscribers that prefer that written posts, we have included a lightly edited transcript of the video (blue download button below) along with a downloadable copy of the slide deck.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript using the blue Download buttons below.

We would encourage those of you that only listen to or watch the video podcasts to go and read our written post from last week (here), as we plan to be more inclusive of coal, copper, and critical minerals going forward to go along with our analysis and commentary on traditional and new energy and power. The title was “Undirsuptable” and focused on the significant profitability and growth opportunities we see in oil, gas, coal, copper, and critical minerals amidst the A.I. boom and our new era of geopolitical competition.

This week we want to address a comment we received last weekend about how we think about terminal value in especially the legacy areas of energy; we will add coal and copper to that list. In a nutshell, that was the point of last week’s post! Here’s the punch line: Yes, we think traditional energy, coal, and copper companies are as a group deserving of terminal value recognition in their share prices especially for the leading companies that have most clearly demonstrated the potential for long-term returns and growth. We see the three key drivers of terminal value recognition as being (1) rising demand for all the raw material inputs to modern life; (2) double-digit full-cycle corporate-level returns on capital; (3) growth and risk taking.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website.

• Veriten: You can also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

For Super-Spiked subscribers that prefer that written posts, we have included a lightly edited transcript of the video (blue download button below) along with a downloadable copy of the slide deck.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript using the blue Download buttons below.

We are still in road warrior mode, having only been at our primary residence for 13 of the first 45 days of 2026. Though I have to say, industry events this year in Miami, Whistler, and Cabo will leave many of you not feeling too sorry for us. So this week we have a very quick FAQ on the “take risk” messaging we’ve been using for 2026, and they are all around the theme of how to think about corporate strategy in a world of maturing US shale oil.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

• Veriten: You can also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

For Super-Spiked subscribers that prefer that written posts, we have included a lightly edited transcript of the video (blue download button below) along with a downloadable copy of the slide deck.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.

This week we have some fun with Bloomberg pictures we created that highlight the information one can sometimes glean about traditional energy from other commodity markets like copper and other metals and minerals. Through the first half of the 2000s super-cycle, we used to spend a bunch of time looking at copper, steel, and iron ore for hints on what was going on with China, global oil demand, and broader macro conditions. Like oil, those other areas are plays on global GDP growth and infrastructure expansion, CAPEX if you will.

Today, we think we are in the early days of another one of those cycles via the combination of AI & digital transformation, expanding energy access, and growing geopolitical competition when it comes to both industrial reshoring and also military. We see each of those trends contributing to a virtuous GDP cycle.

In the five pictures we go through today, we show that AI & tech started the trend, which then spread to power markets and most recently to copper and other metals. We think oil markets will be the next to benefit. Our base case view has been that oil is in a bottoming phase characterized by perhaps modest oversupply in 1H2026 but no oil glut, and that the next upcycle takes hold either later this year or 2027. Either way, now is the time for energy companies to be thinking about where they want to take risk in order to drive shareholder value for the decade ahead.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

• Veriten: You can also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

For Super-Spiked subscribers that prefer that written posts, we have included a lightly edited transcript of the video (blue download button below) along with a downloadable copy of the slide deck.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.

We are just back from nine days on the road across the western U.S. and British Columbia. A key theme we highlighted at both the Goldman Sachs energy conference in Miami earlier this month and at a CIBC dinner panel last week in Whistler was the need for companies to take risk. Three points we discuss in the video podcast: (1) Why the “take risk” messaging now?: (2) The distinction between large-cap and SMID-cap risk taking; and (3) SMID-cap opportunities.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

• Veriten: You can also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

For Super-Spiked subscribers that prefer that written posts, we have included a lightly edited transcript of the video (blue download button below) along with a downloadable copy of the slide deck.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.

2026 kicked off with the dramatic news of the US’s incursion into Venezuela and capture of its president Nicolas Maduro. Protests against the ruling regime in Iran have also captured the world’s attention. We will aim to put those events into the context of our long-term oil macro view, which of course is our focus at Super-Spiked. As a reminder and as a disclaimer, we look at these events through our lens as an energy equity research analyst and a current partner at Veriten. There is no commentary in this video about specific companies.

⚡️On A Personal Note: RIP Bob Weir

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Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email.

• Veriten: You can also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

For Super-Spiked subscribers that prefer that written posts, we have included a lightly edited transcript of the video (blue download button below) along with a downloadable copy of the slide deck.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.

Last week’s video podcast was a look back on our Big Themes for 2025 that we highlighted in January (here). We did pretty well with the 3 main themes, but not so good on 4 sub-topics we teased. We will aim to be better targeted on what we highlight for 2026. This week we evaluate how we did on our “Top 10 Tactical Calls” that we published in late January (here). We use a “Good Call” or “Bad Call” framework to assess how we did. Spoiler alert: Overall we did well, but were far from perfect. Finally, we do a broader assessment on how we are feeling about major Super-Spiked themes and topic areas after what has now been 4 years of publishing. What are we proud of, what if anything are we not, and what are we thinking looking ahead.

We heard from many of you that appreciated that we did a proper assessment of our calls. Someone even said we were a tough self-grader. It baffles us why everyone doesn’t take this approach. Companies put out targets or promises, Wall Street analysts make calls and publish outlook reports, academia and policy shops do their own version of opinion making. All those groups, in our humble opinion, would benefit from doing their own self-assessment. People like them! It’s popular. It builds credibility and accountability.

This will be our final Super-Spiked of 2025. We will return most likely on January 10th. On behalf of everyone associated with Super-Spiked and Veriten, we wish you and your families a Happy Hanukkah, Merry Christmas, Happy New Year, and a great Holiday Season!!!

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email.

• Veriten: You can also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

For Super-Spiked subscribers that prefer that written posts, this week we are including for the first time a lightly edited transcript of the video (blue download button below) along with a downloadable copy of the slide deck.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript using blue Download button below.

In this week’s video podcast we take a look back at the major themes we highlighted at the start of this year in a written post on January 11, 2025 (here). The 3 major topic areas were (1) energy scenario normalization; (2) power; and (3) how we thought about various energy sources and technologies. We had also teased several sub-themes about crude oil, China, M&A, and US/Canada policy. With nearly a year’s hindsight, we did decently well on the three major topic areas, but left a lot to be desired on the four bonus topics. We believe it is always a good idea with those kind of posts to revisit how things played out.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email.

• Veriten: You can also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

We are coming to you this week from the Middle East. We are in the middle of a great trip that has been put together by the Center on Global Energy Policy, where we are an advisory board member. As of this recording, we have spent time in Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Riyadh, with 2 more stops still to come. We are going to have to keep this video short amidst a packed schedule, so will limit our comments to some quick macro takeaways on (1) oil markets; (2) China’s manufacturing dominance; and (3) other energy sources.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email.

• Veriten: You can also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

For Super-Spiked subscribers that prefer that written posts, this week we are including for the first time a lightly edited transcript of the video (blue download button below) along with a downloadable copy of the slide deck.

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript using blue Download button below.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck using the blue Download button below.

This week we dive into the global macro picture around the power super cycle theme, what we are calling Power Surge! There is a lot of attention especially here in the U.S. about the domestic opportunity set. We share that enthusiasm but view the power super cycle as a global theme as well.

Some of the major questions we hope to address either in this video podcast or in future weeks include: Does a power super-cycle imply an acceleration in global GDP growth like we saw 20 years ago with the China/BRICs expansion theme? Will a power super-cycle lift all energy boats or just some? What might be the drivers of different energy sources doing better or worse than expected in the coming decade? And finally what are the best ways for corporates and investors to play the power super-cycle theme?

This week we focus on: (1) global trends in power vs oil demand; (2) regional variations in growth. Key messages: (1) the idea that we will have a power super-cycle but plateauing oil demand is non-sensical...both will grow (2) US appears to be joining notable emerging markets as a pro-growth region.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email.

• Veriten: You can also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

In last week’s Super-Spiked (here), we wrote about Power being the third super-cycle in our lifetime. In this week’s short video podcast, we wanted to share some thoughts on how the early days of the China-BRICs expansion compares and contrasts with the current AI-driven mania and its impact on power markets. We are calling this “Then and Now” with the aim of trying to take the best lessons from the last super-cycle so we can be better prepared and hopefully do a better job navigating the current one. We have five points to make:

(1) Global GDP acceleration coming?

Will we see an acceleration in global GDP back above 3.5% and possibly 4% versus the slower 3% or so that we have been seeing in recent years? One of the big things most oil analysts got wrong early in the China/BRICs period was that global GPD was accelerating, in that example led by China but ultimately spilling over to many other parts of the world. Today, we see signs that energy usage in both China and the United States is on-track to be better than many had feared for 2025. That’s not the same thing as saying we are back to boom times like 20+ years ago. But it does bear watching.

(2) All commodity areas benefitted from the China/BRICs expansion

Oil most notably, but natural gas, coal, steel, copper, etc., all had their own period of strong performance. It is our assessment that oil was the most important of the China/BRICs commodities given its size and global criticality. This go round we see oil as merely a beneficiary of a power super cycle, not its driver. And to be clear since some of you have asked, oil markets will benefit from general economic expansion that will come from a Power Surge as well as the increased construction activity from building data centers. We are not arguing for oil-fired power generation per se, though perhaps we do get some of that as well. Diesel generators come to mind.

(3) Model out a super-cycle on revenues and earnings

For winning sectors, make an effort to examine what top of cycle conditions can truly look like. As an example, at a time oil prices were around $40/bbl, we ran scenarios as to what $100/bbl oil would like, which is very different than the +/- $10 sensitivities most analysts would run. For some of you, that may not mean much. What we are saying is play-out as best as you can what a multi-year bull market looks like and don’t anchor yourself to what was a different recent past. It is not about placing a 100% probability on that upside coming true, but if the probability is greater than zero, model it as best as you can.

(4) Figure out the signposts for peak

Try to figure out the signposts for what would truly cause the cycle to peak and then turn. In the China/BRICs area, we sought to model demand destruction pricing which we originally estimated would occur at $105/bbl. That was partly correct. It certainly helped frame the oil price upside. But for oil and gas equities, we did not give adequate consideration to what we now call our “Quadrilateral of Death” which means that peak return on capital for the sector was what mattered most for oil and gas equities, not the raw oil price peak. As we noted in last week’s post, we suspect the Quadrilateral of Death is not the correct analytical framework for most power-oriented sectors. We need to figure out what is, so we can better assess when this super-cycle has truly reached its half-life. We think we have some time to figure this out.

(5) Navigating volatility

The final area to think through is how as an investor or corporate do you want to navigate volatility. A great example was the Deep Seek sell off last December. I am sure there will be many more to come where the first thought from people will be “power theme had a great run, it’s now over, sell the stocks”. My personal style is the buy-and-hold long term approach and trying to figure out the ultimate super-cycle peak. For those of you that are truly good short-term traders, have at it. Everyone else, you’re going to have to decide for yourself. For corporates, the trick is often understanding what the long-term steady state will be and your ability to adapt with the mix of assets and balance sheet that you have if conditions are materially different than expected. An example is that some companies and businesses adapted faster and better to the move from $100/bbl to a sustained post-super-cycle $50-$60/bbl range than did others.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

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WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

We have just wrapped up an especially heavy 3-week stretch of board, management, and industry meetings. Included have been various meetings in and around the power sector. As someone who has spent his career on the other side of energy--i.e., oil & gas--it has been a lot of fun ramping up on the power side of the business. Historically oil & gas and power have been essentially two completely separate industries, each with their own macro drivers, corporate outlooks, and analyst coverage. And while today many differences of course remain, there are a growing number of areas of convergence. In this short video, we will give a few thoughts from our recent travels that we will expand upon in coming months. There are five points we want to highlight:

First, we think energy is in the early days of the 3rd major super-cycle in our lifetime. The first was the Arab Oil Embargo years of the 1970s and the second was the Chia/BRICs expansion of the 2000s. Both were at their core crude oil market events. Geopolitical security was the dominant narrative of the 1970s. Billion-person scale emerging market (EM) demand growth characterized the latter. The current super-cycle marries both drivers but it is power, rather than crude oil, that is at the heart of this era. AI datacenters rightfully get a lot of attention. But aging developed market grids that need new investment is also an important trend. Perhaps most importantly, the substantial unmet energy needs of the other 7 billion people on Earth will arguably be the greatest driver of global power demand. This super-cycle is all about global power needs on multiple fronts.

Second point and a key lesson from the mis-guided “The Energy Transition” era is that the world clearly is going to need all forms of energy, including many newer technologies where the timing of scaling economics is still uncertain. Examples of that last point are nuclear SMRs and enhanced geothermal to name just two. Power is an enabling driver of crude oil demand in the developing world. We suspect this is most visible in Africa today as an example. It is interesting and ironic: growth in renewables power is boosting oil demand.

Third point: energy sources and technologies are not in competition with each other for a finite pool of demand. That is the energy substitution argument being trotted out by those that in recent years believed in The Energy Transition. Rather, relative economics, reliability, and geopolitical security are going to cause periods of strong and weaker demand at various points of time for different areas. As an example, LNG priced at world oil prices we do not think displaces domestic coal demand in places like India and China. But it is a complementary and diversifying fuel for power generation which is important to having a healthy power market. And new areas like LNG trucks can help reduce dependence on crude oil imports from what would otherwise be the case. Again, it is additive, not substitutive.

Fourth, where crude oil cycles are inherently global in nature, power is typically highly local or regional, but today also has a global overlay via EM growth.

Fifth, we are perhaps most optimistic to see major energy consumers, in particular Big Tech and Big Industrials, proactively engaging in energy macro and policy discussions. We see this at Veriten via an expanding and increasingly diversified client base. We see it in the many meetings we have attended. This in our view significantly raises the odds that we move away from the divisive rhetoric and policies that characterized The Energy Transition era to one that appropriately prioritizes energy’s natural hierarchy of needs.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content directly via email.

• Veriten: You can also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

We are going to go back to the future this week to discuss the seemingly verboten topic of “sustainability.” Believe it or not, it is actually one of the most asked for topics at the various industry, board and management meetings we have spoken at this Fall. It’s never the first question and usually comes towards the end when a brave sole that likely works in this area asks “where do you think the topic of sustainability is headed?” As with everything we do, our focus is on how energy companies should think about the topic with a view toward the decade ahead—not today, not just the next 2.5 years, but what will stand the test time and the inevitable pendulum swings from what investors and politicians claim they want.

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• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email.

• Veriten: You can also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

We are in the midst of another heavy travel stretch so it’s going to be a short video this week. Three quick topics this week: (1) Takeaways from the recent energy outlooks that have been published? (2) Contrarian views on recent data points; (3) Why we think the current oil glut debate misses the bigger picture.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content directly via email.

• Veriten: You can also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

For the past month or so we have been pushing back on the “oil glut” narrative and the pervasive oil gloom that has existed really since Liberation Day in early April of this year, which coincided with news of an accelerated unwind of OPEC quota cuts. Another week has gone by. We are now nearly at the end of September and firmly in the post summer, pre-winter “shoulder months” period for refinery runs that in prior periods of weak balances has seen crude soften. At least through the September 24th recording date of this video, crude oil prices are hanging in there around the mid-$60s.

This week we check-in on where traditional energy stands in terms of growth and profitability, which are the drivers of absolute and relative equity performance. As we have previously noted, the biggest challenge the sector faces is not unfavorable narratives from leading macro agencies or environmental activists, but a now nearly 2-year period of EPS underperformance and a softening in profitability metrics.

Our two key messages this week are (1) we believe we are now much closer to the trough of what we think has been a 2-2.5-year mini-downcycle following peak oil prices seen immediately after the start of the Russia-Ukraine War in 2022. and (2) As a result of where current profitability is and where we think it is headed in coming years, Energy should close the gap between its current discounted 3% market cap weighting in favor of its 5% earnings weighting in the S&P 500.

It remains our view that 2020 marked the bottom of a structural downcycle that began in 2008 and that 2025 will ultimately prove to be year 5 of a structurally better period for profitability that we expect to last through at least the end of this decade. We reiterate our long-standing call that the energy sector will return to a market cap weighting in the S&P 500 closer to its historic 8%-10% range.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email. Also available at https://veriten.com.

• Veriten: You can also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

We have started a heavy Fall travel schedule, with our annual talk at the Oxford Energy Seminar last week and a corporate event in the Rocky Mountains this past week. We wanted to provide a trio of “long-takes” that are jumping out at us: (1) a burst in energy policy rationality and normalization that is being seen from three areas that were previously all in in "The Energy Transition"--California, Canada, and the IEA. (2) we continue to see mounting evidence that fears of an "oil glut" are way overdone, though we likely still need to get through potential shoulder month, seasonal softness over the next 4-8 weeks. Regardless, we believe we are in a bottoming phase for oil-leveraged energy equities which have been very out of favor. (3) A reminder that it is the outlook for returns and growth, not “peak demand” or “oil glut” narratives the IEA or Street analysts, that will drive energy equities.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content directly via email.

• Veriten: You can also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

As all of you that have been watching our video podcasts or reading our posts over the years by now surely know, our focus at Super-Spiked and at Veriten has been on the long-term outlook for the energy sector, not the shorter-term oil price guessing game. But in recent weeks, we have not been able to resist weighing in on what we think is an excessively bearish consensus view of oil prices—the perceived massive oil glut—that has been weighing heavily on energy equity sentiment since the early April so-called "Liberation Day" tariff announcements that coincided with OPEC+ accelerating the unwind of a series of voluntary production cuts. That double whammy has driven an overwhelming consensus sentiment to be bearish oil demand while also assuming a surge in both non-OPEC and OPEC crude supply would drive oil prices to $50 or lower in 2025.

But we are now 5.5 months past that early April bearish shift, and crude oil prices, at least so far, are proving far more resilient than expected even as OPEC+ has made incremental moves to unwind production cuts. Last week in a written post (here), we linked the excessive bearish near-term sentiment to a similar overhang that exists on the long-term oil view, where there is still a lingering let's call it a "net zero world" overhang that crude oil demand will peak in coming years or at best have minimal growth. We have observed that using OPEC Research analyses, rather than the IEA as a baseline, shows far less cyclical or structural crude oil oversupply. Yes, there is a still some softness that might be expected for coming months, but nothing like the "oil glut" that everyone fears.

This week we follow up on last week's written post on this topic to set the record straight on a couple of items, address pushbacks to our pushback to anti-oil and gas macro biases in short-term analyses, and raise some new points on the near- and long-term oil macro outlook. There are 4 major areas we will discuss: (1) how we are thinking about OPEC+'s quota unwind; (2) China oil demand; (3) the role of US shale going forward; and (4) is there any chance the oil glut bears could still be proven correct.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email. Also available at https://veriten.com.

• Veriten: You can also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

We have a bonus Super-Spiked video podcast on a week we were not expecting to publish due to a college drop off. But last weekend we couldn’t resist digging into trying to understand why crude oil prices have been far more resilient in the face of unexpected OPEC quota increases and a seemingly lackluster economic backdrop. Our punchline is that while we agree there is risk of oil price softness in the back-half of this year and early 2026, underlying crude oil supply/demand balances are not anywhere near as oversupplied as consensus fears. We believe fears of a crash and potential extended bear market are way overdone. We are also gaining confidence that by the time we get to 2H2026 and 2027, oil price risk shifts more meaningfully to the upside.

The main points of difference in our more constructive outlook are (1) to disaggregate black crude oil from the more widely reported and followed overall liquids figures; and (2) to give greater consideration to OPEC Research’s Monthly Oil Market Report versus the more broadly used equivalent report (Oil Market Report) from the IEA. Over the past month, we have published several posts (here, here, and here) that have examined the long-term outlook from various macro forecasting agencies, consultants, and oil companies. We conclude OPEC Research leads the pack on being most realistic and pragmatic and was least impacted by “net zero / energy transition” madness of the prior 4-5 years. That doesn’t mean they are necessarily better at short-term supply/demand balances, but we don’t think they should be entirely ignored or dismissed either.

As a reminder, at Super-Spiked and Veriten, our focus is on the long-term outlook for energy markets and companies. We have zero interest in joining the short-term oil price guessing game that the Street and others tend to focus on. But in this case, the prevailing bearish narrative around crude oil is so pronounced and at odds with what we are seeing, we thought it worth commenting.

It remains our view that prudent risk management suggests oil companies and investors should always be prepared for the potential to have a “normal” trough, which we would describe as low $50s for a 12-month period. Our message today is not to ignore that long-standing advice. But rather to recognize that sentiment is likely way too bearish and that medium- and longer-term risks are skewed toward better outcomes than consensus narratives suggest.

Exhibit 1: Underlying “black crude oil” balances using OPEC’s MOMR appears significantly less bearish than implied “liquids” oversupply using IEA OMR balances

Source: IEA, OPEC, Veriten.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email. Also available at https://veriten.com.

• Veriten: You can also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

This week we extend our “Obliterating Peak Oil Demand” series to take on other mainstream macro narratives with a focus on natural gas. We have to admit, it did not even cross our mind that the outlook for global gas demand was anything other than continued growth for the foreseeable future. In fact, there are a number of high-profile macro forecasters projecting a permanent peak in global natural gas demand by as soon as 2030 and in some cases the mid-2030s. This, in our view, is pure insanity. We will take the over, and in fact the way over, that global natural gas demand will grow for many, many decades into the future.

Perhaps we were lulled into a false sense of presumed natural gas growth optimism based on what we think is a broad-based acceptance of US natural gas growth due to LNG export expansion and now AI-driven power demand growth. But we are realizing that a positive view of US growth is not necessarily extending to a positive view on global natural gas growth for some of the major macro forecasting agencies.

The final topic we discuss this week is a warning to ignore energy macro forecasters that merely tweak prior "transition" assumptions by pushing them slightly out in time. It was an article in the Financial Times this past week that caught our attention on this front and we would strongly encourage energy executives, investors, and board members to simply ignore and pushback on energy macro outlooks that are not grounded in energy's natural hierarchy of needs, which acknowledges that energy availability and reliability is all everyone everywhere cares about. Macro forecasts that prioritize counting carbon should not be the basis for how to think about capital allocation.

Before we dig in, two reminders. If you are listening to this on Spotify or Apple Podcasts, there is a corresponding video you can find on YouTube (here), Substack (here), or Veriten’s website (here). And second, this will be our final Super-Spiked of the summer. We will return after Labor Day.

Exhibit 1: We do not agree with energy macro forecasting groups that are calling for a peak in global gas demand by 2030 or 2035

Source: Energy Institute, IEA, OPEC, Veriten.

Exhibit 2: We do not agree with the projected sharp slowdown in global gas consumption growth made by some leading energy macro forecasters

Source: Energy Institute, IEA, OPEC, Veriten.

Peak natural gas even more non-sensical than oil

• The idea that global natural gas demand will peak, or even slow, by 2030 is even more far-fetched than the oil debate.

• Global power demand expected to grow at a healthy clip.

• 24x7x365 requirement supports base-load natural gas, coal, nuclear.

• Geothermal, while worth studying, is still unproven at scale; hydro is niche.

• Solar + batteries will grow in areas with high solar radiation. Wind is also location specific.

• Natural gas does need to compete on overall price/cost economics with alternatives.

• Access to capital matters in natural gas, which lacks the mega caps seen in the oil value chain.

Don’t fall for “delayed transition” narratives

• There is now broad-based recognition that the “easy energy transition”” is a bad joke that has adverse societal consequences.

• Our Obliterating Peak Oil Demand series, which we have extended to coal and natural gas, illustrates the absurdity.

• The mindset that everyone deserves to be energy rich is gaining in acceptance.

• What to watch: (1) With upcoming high profile energy outlooks, watch for “delayed transition” language, which is a cop out. (2) If you are a corporate executive, board member, or investor, don’t fall for it in making capital allocation decisions.

Exhibit 3: Don’t fall for “delayed transition” narratives

Source: Financial Times.

⚡️ On A Personal Note: Summer Reading List

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email. Also available at https://veriten.com.

• Veriten: You can also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

Last week we did a check-in on how the answers to the tactical questions for 2025 we posed back in January were faring (here). This week we go through our Big Themes for 2025 which we had also highlighted back in January (here). We look at what’s in and what’s out through the lens of macro frameworks, public policy implications, and finally corporate strategy and energy sub-sector outlooks. We will publish our final summer Super-Spiked next week before taking a 2-week hiatus until after Labor Day.

BIG THEMES FOR 2025

• Energy scenario normalization

• Power surge: This generation’s super-cycle

• Energy sources and technologies

MACRO FRAMEWORK IMPLICATIONS

• Net Zero and “The Energy Transition” are out. Energy policies that will drive GDP growth and meeting energy’s natural hierarchy of needs are in.

• Solving for everyone on Earth someday becoming energy rich is in. Assuming people will choose to stay poor is out.

• OPEC Research is in. Energy macro agencies and oil companies that were driven by “net zero” narratives are out (for now).

What to watch:

• BP Energy Outlook (Sep), IEA WEO (Oct)

• Africa’s significant TAM (total address market): Up to 60 million b/d of desired oil demand versus 5 million b/d today

POLICY IMPLICATIONS

• Energy policy that drives long-term affordability, reliability, and security are in. Policies that start with counting CO2 are out.

• IRA is out. Meeting AI demand is in.

• Some of the above is in. All of the above was never in.

• Regions that are long energy resource should all be in, but some are still out (California) or not sufficiently in (Canada).

What to watch:

• US natural gas midstream infrastructure

• Canada oil and natural gas export infrastructure

• Reliability, affordability reforms in California, Western Europe

CORPORATE IMPLACATIONS

• Companies exposed to power value chain are in. Natural gas is in. Oil value chain is still out.

• Solar + batteries are still in. Wind is out.

• Nuclear is in. “Green” hydrogen is out. Geothermal hoping to be in.

• IPPs are in. SMID oils (E&P, OFS) are out, though SMID OFS diversifying into power are in.

• Companies driving new technology development in regions that are short energy resource are in…

• …Companies that exist to exploit rich-world government subsidies in the name of CO2 accounting are out.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email. Also available at https://veriten.com.

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

This week we check-in on how our “Top 10 Tactical Questions for 2025” published on January 25, 2025 (here) are faring.

MACRO ORIENTED

(1) Will energy’s S&P weighting increase in 2025?

Original answer: Yes.

Mid-year progress: Wrong so far, but narrative discussed is on-track.

(2) Will we see energy outlooks from high-profile organizations stop treating “net zero” as if it were the defining issue?

Original answer: Change is coming, but will take time and we’ll get wishy washy language in 2025.

Mid-year progress: This is on-track to happen more quickly than we anticipated.

(3) Can oil become great again in 2025?

Original answer: No, Super Vol not super-cycle remains our view.

Mid-year progress: Correct so far.

GEOPOLITICS & POLICY

(4) Will the IRA be repealed, reformed, or left alone?

Original answer: Reformed.

Mid-year progress: Probably we are technically correct in that the IRA was not repealed, but it was so meaningfully gutted that it very much feels like it was repealed.

(5) Will Trump make the Arctic great going forward?

Original answer: Yes.

Mid-year progress: Trump Administration is giving the Alaska/Arctic appropriate attention.

SUB-SECTOR OUTLOOKS

(6) Will power-exposed sectors lead the way in 2025?

Original answer: Yes.

Mid-year progress: Correct so far.

(7) What new technology area are you watching more closely to break-out in 2025?

Original answer: Autonomous driving.

Mid-year progress: The “robo taxi” market is nascent but starting to expand to more areas.

M&A

(8) Will we see an acceleration of O&G firms enter power markets and, if so, how?

Original answer: Yes and organic.

Mid-year progress: To be determined.

(9) Does the Venture Global IPO signal the tide is turning on energy sector capital formation?

Original answer: Yes.

Mid-year progress: Wrong so far.

(10) Will we see a surprising mega merger in energy?

Original answer: Yes.

Mid-year progress: Hasn’t happened yet.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email. Also available at https://veriten.com.

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

Last week we published a written post that took a fresh look at a long standing theme of ours “obliterating peak oil demand” (here). We dug into OPEC Research’s most recent World Oil Outlook report (here) to compare OPEC’s more optimistic view of long-term oil demand to more bearish forecasts from the IEA and frankly many other leading energy voices. Our own outlook is closely aligned with OPEC’s in recognizing the massive unmet energy needs of the other 7 billion people on Earth. The idea that anyone can know today that oil demand is going to permanently peak within the next decade is something we push back hard on. That post has sparked a number of questions, five of which we will aim to address today.

Our On A Personal Note this week remembers heavy metal pioneer Ozzy Osbourne, who passed away on July 21. I was fortunate to catch a Black Sabbath reunion tour in 2016.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email. Also available at https://veriten.com..

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

We hope everyone enjoyed a great 4th of July holiday. This week we will start to flush out a new theme of ours, what we are calling “some of the above, depending on country and region" as the better macro and policy framing for energy. It will undoubtedly get shortened to simply "some of the above" and is meant to reflect that the energy sources and technologies that might make sense for one country or region might not make sense for another.

Super-Spiked was created as a protest to that narrow definition of "The Energy Transition" that said all areas must quickly switch only into renewables + EVs and out of fossil fuels within an absurdly short time frame. That movement never made sense and we think is being relegated to the dustbin of history. But its replacement with terms like "all of the above" and "energy pragmatism" are imperfect and imprecise in a different direction. Pragmatism can mean many different things to many different people and both phrases imply an "anything goes" mindset that frankly isn't how countries or companies are going to act. Instead, practically speaking, the choices that will be made are "some of the above, depending on country or region."

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

Ahead of what will be a holiday week off to celebrate America’s Birthday, we have five thoughts we wanted to share this week around key themes, research ideas, and some what ifs that we are thinking about:

(1) What will it take to get the traditional energy sector, in particular those exposed to the crude oil value chain going again?

(2) Private versus public company mindset and opportunities,

(3) Domestic coal.

(4) "Some of the above" as the correct macro framework for specific regions.

(5) A changing Middle East.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

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• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

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⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

This week we provide "long takes" on the outbreak of hostilities between Israel and Iran. Long takes are our attempt to provide perspective on the long-term implications--as opposed to "hot takes"--of current events. We recorded this mid-day U.S. time on Friday, June 13.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

This week we wanted to address two questions that have come up from our recent posts and videos. The first on why are we not more pound-the-table bullish on crude oil after noting how inexpensive it is versus a bunch of other commodities. The second question is what kind of capital return could work is on what kind of “yield vehicle” could be possible for shale pure-plays that do not want to sell to a larger company and where diversification wouldn’t make sense.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

This week we will have some fun with Bloomberg charts as it relates to the crude oil macro. We noted in our The Good, The Bad, and The Misunderstood Amidst Major Macro Cross Currents written post from two weeks ago (here) that crude oil remains a critically important energy source albeit with conflicting cross currents that are both bullish (US shale maturity tailwinds) and bearish (China slowdown headwinds, OPEC+ supply increases). Whatever one’s view of oil, it is still a huge driver of sentiment toward the energy sector and of course Energy’s weighting in the S&P 500 is driven by the largest oil and gas companies like ExxonMobil, Chevron, etc.

One thing is clear from all the charts, oil looks inexpensive to gold, copper, and refining margins and is at the low end of its recent band to Henry Hub natural gas and TTF. Oil is the big laggard and it is casting a pall on Energy’s S&P 500 weighting, which has sunk back to a dismal 3% of the S&P 500 versus a Russia-Ukraine high of 5% and its pre-2015 range of 8%-12%. The question is whether oil and oil equities are values or value traps. As a spoiler alert, we are not sure we are actually going to be able to definitively answer that today, and the answer in part depends on one’s time horizon. The short-term looks to be more challenging, whereas over the long run we do not believe “the end of oil” is anywhere near.

To be clear, over the remainder of this decade, we are more optimistic on growth in power generation—US and global—natural gas demand and for that matter other power generation energy sources like solar + batteries and non-OECD coal. Equities favorably exposed to those trends should perform accordingly. But for the Energy sector broadly speaking to regain a much larger S&P weighing, oil is still the king.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

We continue our series of “long takes” amidst the macro mess we are slogging through and wanted to hit upon a couple of observations coming out of a surprisingly interesting quarterly earnings season that we think are relevant as corporates and investors think through long-term implications and opportunities.

The first comes courtesy of Diamondback Energy: Is US shale oil peaking? And if it is, what does that mean for the energy macro. The second comes from Next Era Energy which made some interesting remarks about the relative economics of various generation sources juxtaposed against massive US power demand growth. The first two points then lead to the obvious question of how should companies think about business evolution, M&A and strategy during a period of uncertainty and turmoil to best position themselves for the decade ahead. For investors, who and what do you want to own?

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

We wanted to follow up on the Special Edition episode of this week’s Close of Business Tuesday video podcast where we interviewed Mark Lashier, the CEO of Phillips 66. P66 is in the midst of a proxy battle with Elliott Advisors. I will refer everyone to that episode (here) as well as the published materials from both the company (here) and Elliott (here) for more information. At Super-Spiked, it is our self-imposed policy to not discuss individual companies and so this is not P66 dedicated episode. What we are looking to do though is discuss a few topics about how we think about corporate strategy including (1) being diversified vs a pure play, (2) when it makes sense to restructure and split apart and when it doesn’t, (3) when does external activism make sense, and (4) how to be your own internal activist.

We are in a macro environment where a lot is changing in terms of the outlook for China, the increasing maturity of U.S. shale oil, faster expected power generation and the role of different energy sources to meet that growth. Geopolitics remain front and center. We expect oil demand to grow but it’s going to be choppy. Natural gas, LNG (liquefied natural gas), and NGLs (natural gas liquids) are expected to grow much faster, but what is the right business model to participate? Will upstream companies need to start looking overseas again? And if so, who and how is the best way to do that? There are a lot of moving parts.

As companies consider potentially meaningful strategic actions, there is the risk of a disconnect between what some will think is the best course of action in the near term versus the evaluation of risk/reward opportunities in the long term. As companies take steps, some will be second-guessed and the specter of rising shareholder activism will be there.

To be clear, different analysts will have different takes on this topic and what companies should do. There is no one-size-fits-all answer to any of this stuff. It can be frustrating or perhaps annoying that luck and timing can matter a lot, but so does good governance and management. No one bats 1.000. But structural underperformance is neither sustainable nor OK either.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

We will start with an apology to those of you that prefer the written notes but with the Super Vol nature of this tariff trade war and the dramatic market moves, we are going to do another short video. We tried our best to avoid “hot takes” and stick with how to think about what it means for the Energy sector over the long run—i.e., the “long takes.” For companies and investors that are not trying to day trade this crazy market, there are some fundamental questions about how to think about the macro, CAPEX, M&A, and what to do with so much uncertainty.

We would like to wish everyone that celebrates a Happy Easter. We too will be enjoying the long weekend and will publish our next Super-Spiked in two weeks.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

We had intended to publish a written note this week that we thought had some interesting analysis on energy sub-sector profitability over what we consider to be the 2021-2024 mini-cycle. But President Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” Rose Garden event squashed those publication plans. OPEC decided to add to the noise with its own surprise announcement that it would add additional volumes. As of the April 3 close, energy equities, oil commodities, and the broader stock market have been hit hard and we have pivoted this week to producing a short video podcast to share our thoughts. With the major caveat that we are one day into whatever this potential new paradigm is—and given our aversion to providing “hot takes” on the news of the day—we wanted to offer some initial long-term perspectives on macro developments, i.e., “long takes” so to speak.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

This week's video is a follow up to last week's written post titled "What Does Energy Pragmatism Mean for Climate & Sustainability" (here). We wanted to expand on some of the points in our own voice and also address various questions and pushback we have received.

Our key messages this week: (1) Energy pragmatism means a return to energy's natural hierarchy of needs, rather than the inverted version that pretended anyone anywhere prioritizes carbon emission reductions over energy availability and reliability; (2) investment flows into non-fossil fuel energy sources are not impacted by western world virtue signaling, as the climate bubble actually peaked way back in 2021; (3) the other 7 billion people in developing markets hold the key to how energy markets will evolve in coming decades, not us Lucky 1 Billioners.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com..

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

This past week we attended CERAWeek by S&P Global in Houston. Pragmatism, balance, and realism have been the themes uttered by just about every single speaker. Some have long been in this camp. Others are new. All are welcomed. We are still embracing inclusivity at Super-Spiked.

Some will say we shouldn’t be so forgiving to those people that 5 minutes ago were calling for an end to fossil fuel investment and are now suddenly seeing the light in regards to reliability, geopolitical security, and affordability. You, our loyal subscribers, know where we have been standing all along. It is our mission that the dialogue, understanding, and macro energy policies recognize energy’s natural hierarchy of needs, where all anyone anywhere at all times cares about is can I use energy right now. Without energy access there is nothing. So in that spirit, we welcome everyone to the world of pragmatism.

Before we get into our Top 10 takeaways from CERAWeek 2025, we would like to offer our congratulations to Dan Yergin, Atul Arya, and everyone at S&P Global for putting on a world class show. We learned a ton and caught up with many friends and colleagues from around the world. There is no conference like CERAWeek that brings together all of the global energy industry in one place.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com..

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

We follow up on last week’s post that heralded The Rise of the Energy Pragmatism Era (here). No more inverting the hierarchy of needs with non-sensical net-zero-is-all-that-matters energy outlooks that would subjugate vast swaths of humanity to ongoing poverty. We have moved into an exciting and even fun new period for all things energy—new, old and everything in between. Oil & gas is converging with power. Technology and energy are converging in the sense that you can't have the former without the latter. Billion-person scale economies in the developing world are doing whatever it takes to bring wealth to their citizens—all of which is synonymous with energy growth. And for those regions it will be a focus on reliability, affordability, and geopolitics that will motivate an increasingly diverse mix of energy sources and technology. This is not about looking backwards...it's about the path forward.

This week's video will start our discussion on new opportunities that could arise as energy pragmatism spreads, in particular to regions that had been most in “climate only” mode. What regions have been left behind that deserve a fresh look? How can we best meet the substantial energy needs of ALL 8 billion people on Earth? Real economics are returning, not unsustainable rich-country government handouts to the wealthiest amongst us. Welcome to The Energy Pragmatism Era!

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

The firehose of news flow out of the new Trump administration since, and frankly preceding, his inauguration has not stopped. While US presidents throughout history seem to elicit strong reactions, President Trump inspires a degree of hysteria from those that oppose him and a do-no-wrong deference from his supporters. What we find is that whatever the issue is—it could be domestic spending, sanctions, or tariffs—when someone has an obviously dripping disdain for Trump, it weakens the efficacy of their argument, even if partly accurate. The opposite is also true. We find both extremes to be pretty unhelpful in sorting through what matters.

By the time this video podcast is published, President Trump will have only been in office for 4 weeks: there are still 3 years and 48 weeks to go—permanent freak out mode is not sustainable or healthy! In this week's video, which we recorded a little earlier than usual due to some travel this past week, we address a number of questions that have arisen. We are going to do our best to use our equity research analyst's mindset to assess policy actions taken or proposed. This means our only goal is to make the right call and provide the best insight we can for the companies we advise. We will keep our answers focused on how it all might impact the long-term energy macro and corporate strategy.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

As long-time Super-Spiked subscribers know, we are not about “hot takes” on the issue of the day. With that said, it’s been an incredible first week and a half since the US inaugurated its 47th president. A fire hose of Trump-driven news has instantly recast global narratives around energy and geopolitics as well as as a host of other topics we don’t normally cover in Super-Spiked. The World Economic Forum’s Davos gathering happened last week. And DeepSeek, a Chinese AI program in the spirt of ChatGPT and related programs, burst onto the scene after its US iPhone app went viral last weekend, upending stock markets and in particular anything and everything related to the A.I. trade. We are going to try our best to put this torrent of news flow in the context of what it might mean for the longer-term trends and outlook for the energy that is our bread and butter.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

It’s been a great start to the year for the traditional energy and power sectors broadly speaking. This video will publish just two days before we have a new administration here in the U.S. And as we highlighted in our last few Super-Spiked’s from December as well as the “Big Themes for 2025” outlook post from last week (here), we feel considerable optimism that the narratives and perspectives about energy are becoming more pragmatic and sensible after a pretty rough stretch over 2021-2024 where a very narrow definition of “The Energy Transition” unfortunately dominated energy mindspace. Our confidence that that era decisively came to a close in 2024was on a full display in what was a remarkably civil and mostly thoughtful confirmation hearing for Chris Wright, president-elect Trump’s nominee to be energy secretary, conducted by the U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. In this video we hope to further expand on our key themes for 2025 through the lens of some of the pushbacks or key questions we have been fielding.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com..

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

We follow up on our written post from last week, Reflections On The End of The Energy Transition Era (here), to talk about important lessons learned from what was an insane period of time. This week will dive into the importance of governance, an area that frankly is often a bit of a black box for investors and those not involved in board-level discussions. We’ll include a disclaimer upfront. The comments this week are generic to our 32-year career as an equity research analyst studying and engaging with the energy sector. We are not referring to any specific companies that we are personally involved with or via our role at Veriten.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday..

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above on YouTube (here).

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

We hope all of you that tune in or read Super-Spiked know that we try our hardest to be non-partisan and present views from what we refer to as an equity analyst’s mindset, which means it does not matter what we personally think about an issue, we are just trying to make the right call. But this week we will confess that we are excited about the new energy team that has been proposed by president-elect former president Donald Trump with North Dakota governor Doug Burgum for Secretary of Interior and Liberty Energy CEO Chris Wright for Secretary of Energy. President Trump has also proposed creating a new National Energy Council that will be headed by Governor Burgum that will look to co-ordinate a whole-of-government approach to energy policies.

We will apologize in advance that we are likely to sound far more partisan than we prefer. For those of you listening that either serve or have served in Democrat administrations—or that simply were not happy with how the recent election turned out—please know that we highly value you as a subscriber and we appreciate our ongoing engagement with those of you in that camp that we regularly dialogue with.

The appointments of Governor Burgum and Mr. Wright signify a return to an approach to energy that puts abundance, reliability, security, and affordability at its core and an “all of the above” approach to harnessing American energy resources and technology. We would contrast this with the prior administration’s emphasis on addressing climate change, which we see as a subsidiary issue within energy and should not be the centering policy point that comes with a climate activist agenda. The “climate only” focus of recent years that took hold in the aftermath of COVID was a motivating factor for the creation of Super-Spiked and our eventual un-retirement and joining Veriten.

Chris Wright in particular has been outspoken via his Bettering Human Lives report (here). The report beautifully articulates why we use energy in the first place: to better human lives. Super-Spiked and Bettering Human Lives share a common worldview and motivating spirit.

In this week's video podcast we will discuss how re-prioritizing energy abundance, reliability, security, and affordability differs from the “climate only” agenda of the past several years from the perspective of energy equities. Our written post from last week, which we would encourage you to read, addressed various macro and policy issues around energy scenario analysis, power, new energies, and oil markets (here).

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

This week we provide some initial thoughts on the U.S. election, the bulk of which was decisively declared on election night itself. We regularly emphasize that we aim to bring an equity research analyst’s mindset to evaluating the energy sector. That means we are simply trying to make the correct call on what we think will happen—not what we personally wish would happen or hope will happen. And we will do our best to stick with that in this video podcast, though when it comes to emotionally charged topics like elections, we’d have to admit that some amount of wish casting and personal opinion will creep in.

In terms of Super-Spiked subscribers, we are going to guess that many of you, perhaps even a majority, will be pretty excited about the election results. But we also take a lot pride in the fact that we have a substantial contingent of subscribers that were hoping for a different outcome. The world is a better place for all of those viewpoints. And we thank all of you, those that agree with us and those that disagree, for your ongoing constructive engagement. As we repeatedly say, we are looking for the pushback to our views. It makes us better analysts.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.

LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the GREY button above.

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

We recorded this video podcast with a little less than a week to go before the November 5 US elections. We are seeing a lot of punditry commentary about what choosing one side or the other would mean for this policy or that sector and who will be the winners and losers depending on the outcome. We get it. There are differences between the parties, their areas of emphasis, and their rhetoric.

But when it comes to the big picture outlook for the energy sector, we want to remind everyone that the structural macro trends unquestionably transcend micro politics. This is something we wrote about in our July 27, 2024 Super-Spiked, Does the US president’s party impact the energy macro results? (here). At a high level, the answer is a firm “no.”

Clearly individual companies and specific projects can be impacted as we have seen via the lack of approval for various pipeline projects or the LNG permit pause or the granting of tax credits to various new technologies. So yes, a specific company can be impacted by who wins. But at the big picture level, we believe the mega trends triumph over micro politics. Moreover, as we will show with the last 2 elections, various sectors did not perform as conventional wisdom expected.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.

LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the GREY button above.

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

Amidst the geopolitical and macro turmoil, we take a step back this week to turn back to how companies can think about outperformance through all the volatility. One can’t be frozen and simply wait for a calmer or better time to materialize. No one should be sitting around waiting for an easy bull market to emerge.

Long-time Super-Spiked subscribers will know that we are long-running advocates for companies focusing on profitability and a fortress balance sheet. This week we will start the process of spending some time on the "G" word: growth. Growth became a 4-letter word for investors after the surge in CAPEX during the Super-Spike era and subsequent US shale boom led to profitless growth--something we have spent a lot of time discussing in prior posts.

And let us be clear, profits and balance sheet health remain the priority. That said, there is no doubt investors will always side with companies that can grow versus those that cannot grow at a given level of profitability and balance sheet strength. The trick is to hit the trifecta: growth, returns, and balance sheet strength. Moreover, for especially the upstream portion of the industry where asset life is finite--oil and gas fields naturally deplete--it is critical to adequately reinvest back in the business if a company is to persist as a going concern.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.

LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the GREY button above.

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

This week we continue the theme of normalization. The 2020-2023 period of “urgent energy transition,” “peak oil and gas demand,” and ESG hysteria we think is fading. It is being replaced with what we would call “normal” supply/demand/price volatility concerns. The biggest issue right now facing oil markets has been uncertainty on the outlook for China in particular. Going back to the super-cycle days of 20 years ago, we have long looked at copper markets to provide insights into China, given China is over 50% of copper demand. A noticeable gap has opened between weak crude oil prices and more resilient copper. Historically, the gap has closed with crude following the direction of copper. We shall see if history repeats.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.

LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the GREY button above.

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.

We are using the occasion of our 50th Super-Spiked video podcast to provide thoughts, lessons learned, and new perspectives gained from the first 49 videopods, 90 written posts, and what is now nearly 3 years of publishing Super-Spiked content. As always, we are especially appreciative of both the positive and constructive feedback from all subscribers; we really do love hearing from you. Our glass half-full world view sees energy narratives and conversations slowly but surely becoming more reasonable and less focused on extremist singular goals. There is a growing recognition that until you solve for how everyone on Earth will some day become energy rich, you will never solve sub-goals in areas like the environment or climate. We continue to believe geopolitical imperatives will be the driver of new energy technologies and sources for large population centers that are not blessed with abundant crude oil resources.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.

LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the GREY button above.

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

This week we provide the third installment of our August series on “30 Years of Perpetual Transition” with a look at a number of noteworthy geopolitical and policy developments that have occurred. A key conclusion is that some events that were expected to be impactful were not, while others that had less fanfare did have a bigger impact. Some countries had grand openings that resulted in dramatically higher oil or gas supply. Others, not so much.

Two weeks ago we discussed some of the different macro drivers that have changed over the course of our career (here). Last week we focused on sectors, business models, and strategy shifts (here). All of it is to point out that energy markets are forever changing. Energy transition has become an unfortunate and loaded term that most people would define as meaning a transition out of fossil fuels and into renewables over an arbitrarily short time frame like 2050. We do not agree that definition of energy transition is happening or would be desirable from the perspective of human prosperity. But there is a need for industry executives, investors, and policy makers to recognize that energy is in perpetual transition and that one needs to always be looking forward with a focus on the important drivers of change and to not let mis-guided and ill-informed rhetoric cloud judgements.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.

LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the GREY button above.

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

This week we continue our series of "30 Years of Perpetual Transition" with a focus on how various energy sectors and business models have evolved. As a reminder, we recognize the term "energy transition" has become a loaded term, which most people now take to mean the idea that the world will be transitioning away from fossil fuels to renewables, over some arbitrarily short time frame like by 2050. We do not agree that this version of “energy transition” is on-track to happen or that it would be desirable from a human prosperity standpoint.

But that does not mean nothing is changing. In fact, over the course of our 30-year career a ton of stuff has changed. Last week we focused on the energy macro with a closer look on big changes to the relative importance of various regions to oil demand (here). This week we will take a look at the major energy sub-sectors and give examples of how business models and risk taking have evolved.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.

LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.

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DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

For the last month of summer, we are aiming to produce a series of hopefully short videos that highlight key lessons from the last 30 years of what we are calling perpetual transition in the energy space with an aim to offer insights on the go forward view. Energy transition itself has become a loaded term of late, typically referring to the idea that the world will be transitioning away from fossil fuels to renewables, over some arbitrarily short time frame like by 2050. We do not agree that this version of “energy transition” is on-track to happen or would be desirable from a human prosperity standpoint.

But that does not mean nothing is changing. In fact, over the course of our 30-year career a ton of stuff has changed. And we have little doubt that the next 30 years will NOT look like the last 30 years. The macro has changed, sectors and company strategy have changed, business models evolve, new technologies and sources or location of energy supply emerge, demand changes, which stocks and sectors perform best changes. Everything is constantly transitioning. So to reiterate, we do not subscribe to what most people today mean by “energy transition,” as we expect all forms of energy to grow in coming decades. But under the hood, energy markets are constantly transitioning, and we do wish to better understand the direction the world is headed.

Today’s video is the first of our new series and will focus on “30 Years of Perpetual Transition” in the energy macro. Next week we plan to turn to the various energy sectors and company strategy. In other videos, we will look at geopolitics, policy, and the environment.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.

LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

Our Super-Spiked post last week (here) asked the question of “Does the US President’s party matter to energy macro results?” Our over-arching conclusion is that the bark of presidential or party rhetoric is far worse than the bite. Energy is by nature a long-term business and mega trends around sources of supply, global economic growth, geopolitics, and capital spending cycles drive share price performance, crude oil and natural gas production, as well as CO2 emissions trends than does whichever party happens to be in power for a particular 4- or even 8-year period. The fact that these long-term trends dominate over-arching results—and we observed that there is a notable exception for particular projects that might impact specific companies, something like an approved or rejected oil or gas pipeline or perhaps a new energies subsidy—the long-term trends mean there is likely far more common ground among the major parties than there is disagreement. Yet all we hear about are the extremist edges of the debate. So in the spirt of peace, love, and unity, this week’s video will focus on where there is or should be common ground among Republicans, Democrats, and Independents here in the United States.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.

LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

This week we focus on the question “Can you trust the United Nations on energy and climate?” The question is sparked by a “climate change” warning label that YouTube placed on Super-Spiked Episode 37 “Goodbye Europe, Hello Rest of World” (here) that discussed an updated climate change statement from Barclays, German de-industrialization, and our thoughts on the role of US and Canadian traditional energy. The warning label linked to a United Nations website that highlighted what it described as “Facts” and “Myth Busters” on climate energy (here).

In reviewing the 16 “facts,” we find that 2 we would agree are definitively facts, another 2-3 are factually true but start the U.N. down the road of advocacy and weaponizing the topic of climate, and the other 10-11 are a mix of opinion, advocacy, and in some cases outright falsehoods. Our concern with what the U.N. presents as “facts” is that it is the organization that oversees the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which is widely (universally?) considered the authority on so-called climate science.

We have spent considerable time in prior posts and videos discussing our concerns with institutional advocacy under the pretense of sober analysis from groups like the International Energy Agency (IEA), Glasgow Financial Alliance For Net Zero (GFANZ), and within bank and asset manager ESG/Sustainability groups. Frankly, we have been late to taking a closer look at the U.N. itself, most likely because we have not relied on its data directly and it has otherwise not been within the purview of our “Wall Street” approach to discussing energy and climate. The U.N. and IPCC clearly deserve greater scrutiny given their massive influence on how the world understands climate.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.

LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.

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DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

This week we honor America's upcoming 248th birthday on July 4th, when it declared independence from the King of England, and take a moment to celebrate the country's incredible achievements in the energy sector. As my friend and colleauge Paul Dabbar eloquently wrote in a terrific Hoover Institute piece that we would encourage all Super-Spiked subscribers to read (here), America is an energy superpower, a position we should lean into in coming years. Energy supply makes us as Americans and the Rest of the World richer. It betters human lives, to quote another friend Chris Wright, CEO of Liberty Energy. We have called this video American Energy Exceptionalism and it is a celebration of how fortunate we are with our endowment of substantial oil and natural gas resources, our world leading technology sector and culture of innovation and risk taking, and our leading capital markets and system of capitalism that underpins our national economic wealth.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.

LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

We turn back to our favorite topic and that is profitability and the goal of generating superior long-term share price performance. We spend a lot of time discussing ROCE, CROCI, and free cash flow. This week we wanted to talk about long-term stock buyback as one way to add per share growth to the equation and to highlight how buybacks plus M&A have contributed to significant outperformance from Murphy USA, the 2013 retail spin off from E&P parent Murphy Oil, which is in the very mature business of gas station and convenience store retailing. We also note the outperformance by the Big-3 US downstream companies versus the Majors, E&Ps, and the S&P 500.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

Subscribed

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.

LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

We are just back from 8 straight days on the road, so this is going to be a short video podcast that touches upon three themes: (1) pushback on our view that the total addressable market (TAM) for oil is at least double current demand; (2) perspectives on the NVIDIA-like move in merchant power generator equities; and (3) a preview of what's next for the now controversial term "energy transition"? Next weekend we will be enjoying the long Memorial Day holiday, with Super-Spiked returning the first Saturday in June. Enjoy!

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.

LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

We follow-up to last week’s post Obliterating Peak Oil Demand: A Progress Update (here). Our main issue with the peak oil demand narrative is that it it doesn’t solve for how everyone on Earth will someday enjoy the lifestyles The Lucky 1 Billion of Us take for granted. We believe the total addressable market (TAM) for oil is 250 million b/d, well above current levels of around 103 million b/d.

The analytical mistake we think many are making is deducting future electric vehicle (EV) growth from something near current oil demand as opposed to from oil’s TAM when everyone on Earth ultimately lives within fully developed economies. Furthermore, EVs only address about 25% of the oil demand barrel and are unlikely to be viable solution for the entirety of even that sliver of demand.

At its core, our long-term outlook for oil demand looks at the relationship between global GDP growth and the quantity of oil demand needed to generate a dollar of GDP. We observe the long-term trend that every year the world generally requires slightly less oil to generate a dollar of GDP, a concept we refer to as “efficiency gains.” In this case, efficiency gains includes both fuel economy (improving miles per gallon) and product substitution (e.g., EVs, SAF, RD). Based on our analysis of “efficiency gains”, there is essentially no evidence oil demand is on-track to plateau let alone decline in coming years. We believe there is not a decade let alone year when anyone today can definitively declare oil demand will peak.

We show two country examples—China and India—which collectively have growth potential of 40-60 million b/d in order to reach a TAM that reflects a 10 barrels of oil demand per capita, consistent with “everyone being rich.” China and India are also examples of what we believe will be the main driver of limiting the TAM of oil markets to something well below 250 million b/d, which is geopolitical security. For countries that are not blessed with abundant crude oil resources, especially sizable ones like China and India, we see a strong motivation to limit growth in oil imports—the ultimate TAM limiter for oil markets.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.

LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

We follow up on last week’s deep post (here) on cash return on gross capital invested (CROCI), which we view as a complementary profitability metric to return on capital employed (ROCE). The videopod starts with the reasons to introduce a second, primary metric due to some of the issues with ROCE around write-offs and the inherent incentive to under-invest given the nature of the ROCE calculation. We discuss how CROCI offers different insights at the sub-sector level. Finally, we provide hypothetical examples based on actual company data for two companies that took large write-offs that boosted ROCE in subsequent years; one company continued to lag on CROCI while the other showed fundamental improvement. It is this kind of divergence that we find interesting, especially when ROCE is rendered less meaningful due to recent large impairment charges. As always, we welcome feedback, pushback, and discussion on this (and all!) topics we discuss.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.

LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

We spent this past week in Houston attending CERAWeek 2024. It was another great event; thank you and congratulations to everyone at S&P Global for hosting and putting on a great show!

Coming out of last year’s event, our key theme was “The Energy Transition Needs To Transition” away from an obsessive focus on only counting carbon to one that centered itself around meeting the massive unmet energy needs of everyone on Earth with affordable, reliable, and geopolitically secure energy, which in turn would better enable environmental objectives to be met. A year later, we see “green shoots” that a healthier energy evolution era is emerging and that “The New Energy Transition Narratives” we discuss in this week’s videopod are increasingly aligned with our framing.

Energy demand is increasing nearly everywhere with all energy sources and a host of both traditional and new technologies. The developing world appears to be gaining confidence to go its own way, with diminishing western world influence. And the new trend of artificial intelligence (AI)-driven power demand growth is waking the US up to the needs for an “all of the above” energy approach if we are to have reliable and growing power generation. See our post from last week, “Will AI Be Our Salvation To A Healthier Energy Evolution?” (here).

We see the potential for new business models, collaborations, and partnerships across energy value chains and between energy suppliers and users (Tech and Industrial sectors in particular) to be a likely future trend. It is about as interesting and dynamic of a period in the energy sector as we can remember over our 32-year career.

We would like to wish everyone that celebrates a Happy Easter. We too will be enjoying the long weekend and will publish our next Super-Spiked in two weeks.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.

LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

We focus on some of the big macro themes that have emerged from earnings season across the broader stock market, with a focus on electric vehicle (EV) adoption S-curves, artificial intelligence (AI), ongoing US energy sector M&A, and the role of Canadian energy companies looking forward. Trends with both EVs and AI add to our confidence that demand for all sources of energy, including oil and natural gas, will continue to grow for the foreseeable future. We do not believe anyone can know today which decade let alone year that oil or natural gas will definitively peak.

We would encourage readers to review Ford CEO Jim Farley’s introductory remarks on Ford’s 4Q2023 earnings call. Mr. Farley recognized the challenges Ford is facing in ramping EV sales; and while the company remains committed to longer-term EV growth, it is clearly going to be at a slower pace than what was envisioned even one year ago. At the same time, Mr. Farley noted an uptick in hybrid vehicle sales, which, ironically, may be the technology most appropriate for US consumers and could eventually, and finally, lead to marked improvements in fuel economy.

It has long been our view that it is inappropriate to use a uniform rapid EV adoption “s-curve” in all regions; we do not believe the examples of Norway (driven by climate policy) or China (driven by geopolitical security) will be representative of the United States, India, or many other developing countries. As it relates to traditional energy, we believe the belief that rapid global EV adoption will lead to oil demand rolling over within the next 5-10 years is not anywhere near on track to occur, especially when one considers the massive untapped energy demand of the other 7 billion on Earth that are not amongst The Lucky 1 Billion of us.

We recognize that “AI” has become a major buzzword, and with that likely comes some hype and over-enthusiasm about the subject. That said, we are believers that the next major technology revolution is here. The relevance to energy is that implied power demand from AI technology use, datacenters, and related infrastructure will be massive. After about 20 years of broadly flat US power demand, low-to-mid-single digit load growth appears to have returned (even higher in some regions). Load growth and growing penetration of intermittent resources like solar and wind are an unhealthy mix—a point that does not appear to be lost on the giant technology companies.

In our view, it may well be AI that proves to be our salvation when it comes to what we have called “a messy energy transition era.” The general freak-out by many Big Tech firms over how to source power while also meeting sustainability goals, we believe could lead to a healthier narrative around energy overall. Big Tech is going to need “all of the above” energy solutions that can meet growing power demand. Near-zero methane natural gas along with nuclear are going to be important components of our power generation mix along with rising renewables output.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

Note: this is republication in order to upload the audio to Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.

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We return to our sub-theme of "Goodbye Europe, Hello Rest of World" sparked by Barclay's updated Climate Change Statement (here and here), evidence of structural de-industrialization in Germany, and our recent analysis on Norway's resilient overall oil demand despite gasoline erosion due to its electric vehicle (EV) ramp.

With Europe fading as a core driver of global GDP growth, our macro focus is on how key population centers in Asia, in particular China (1.4 billion people), India (1.4 billion people), and the rest of southeast Asia (1.3 billion people) will meet their massive unmet energy needs. Climate policies being pursued in Western Europe, the United States, and Canada that disproportionately and perplexingly negatively impact traditional energy companies in their home regions is one of the key contributing factors to the messy energy transition era. For developing Asia, it remains an open question as to whether American and Canadian oil and natural gas (via LNG) will be part of the solution or will they instead need to rely on the Middle East and Russia.

Barclay's updated Climate Change Statement that promises to stop financing new oil and gas fields and infrastructure expansion is the latest example of a western-world financial institution succumbing to pressure from "climate only" ideologues. It is deeply unfortunate. Germany's ill-advised energy and climate policies are undoubtedly a major contributor to its relatively high power prices and undeniable signs of structural de-industrialization. Norway's rapid EV ramp shows how hard it is to kill overall oil demand—a fact "net zero by 2050" scenarios bizarrely ignore. Ill-advised energy and climate policies from European governments and, increasingly, financial institutions like Munich Re and Barclays (among many others) is contributing heavily to what we call a messy energy transition era—our motivation for creating Super-Spiked.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.

LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUEbutton above.

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DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

We had intended to follow-up last weeks’ ROCE Deep Dive post (here) with examples of how to apply it to macro forecasting as well as sub-sector and company analysis. However, a surprise LNG permit “pause” from the Biden Administration followed a few days later by Saudi’s announcement it would “pause” its planned oil capacity expansion has led to a change in publishing plans!

We wrote a seven-part tweet/post on Twitter-X over the weekend (here) that has now garnered a mind-boggling 120,000 views, well above our typical 1,000-4,000 views per tweet/post. Key points: (1) there is no such thing as an “Industry” view on the “pause,” it essentially depends on whether a company, industry, or country is long or short natural gas; (2) the potential impact on Europe has been both over-analyzed and overstated; (3) the implications for developing Asia have been under-appreciated; (4) competitor countries are undoubtedly rejoicing over the news; (5) big versus small government is a basic viewpoint difference in how to address energy & environmental policy; (6) climate implications are more complex than the simple debate of LNG is higher-carbon than renewables versus lower carbon than coal.

We address the Saudi capacity expansion pause from the perspective of the recent Saudi oil policy that has focused primarily on the front-end of the curve. Is this a shift to focusing on long-dated oil? As a reminder, both the Biden LNG permit and Saudi capacity expansion pauses are consistent with our “Super Vol” rather than “super-cycle” commodity macro framework. Policy rhetoric and actions, frankly, can be as meaningful as underlying supply/demand, especially over the near-to-medium term.

Finally, we observe signs that we are past “peak Tesla,” especially when considered alongside clear evidence of electric vehicle (EV)-or-bust fatigue among car buyers and many traditional auto manufactures. China’s EV ramp continues, more or less unabated, and we believe is highly motivated by a desire to limit growth in oil imports. We do not believe there is a singular EV adoption “S-curve” for all regions. China will be different than the USA, which will be different than India, the rest of Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. We continue to believe there is not a decade, let alone year, when we KNOW oil demand will peak, even as we expect continued growth in many new energy technologies including EVs.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.

LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUEbutton above.

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Our first two written posts of 2024 focused on the Big Themes and Tactical Questions we see for the traditional energy sector. In this video we bring those together with an expanded discussion on a number of sub-sectors including the international oil companies (IOCs) & Canadian “Big-4” oils, US “Big-3” downstream, US/Canada midstream (includes pipelines and MLPs), and gassy E&Ps. Traditional energy exhibits a massive and diverse set of opportunities and one of our 2024 aims is to provide our perspectives on where differentiated opportunities exist.

The world has now recovered from the deep COVID trough. The recovery trade in traditional energy ended in 2022. Balance sheets are fixed and profitability structurally improved (versus last decade). The challenge now for individual companies across the various sub-sectors is to articulate and demonstrate a differentiated approach to meeting the world’s massive unmet energy needs through a strategy that is both profitable and durable, or, recognizes a lack of durability by liquidating, selling, or otherwise distributing essentially all cash back to investors.

If this week’s video is not enough for you, Arjun also appeared on Lykeion’s (Geopolitics of Commodities) podcast hosted by Scott Smitson. The 55-minute discussion (link) covered global energy, Europe’s energy polices, under appreciated aspects of the energy transition, the role of government in energy policy, near-term geopolitical risk and spare capacity, and more.

Arjun also joined Tom Loughery and Reed Barrett of FLOW on a 54-minute webinar ( link, password S4Pz0+4v). Key topic items included our SuperVol framework, Tom’s view on the “second-half” of shale, the role of early versus late stage private equity, exploration, Super Major/large-cap E&P vs SMID-cap E&P strategies, and what our “phasing-in profitable growth” theme really means.

As always, we appreciate and look forward to your comments, critiques, and, if you wish, praise.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.

LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUEbutton above.

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

In what is likely to be our final Super-Spiked for 2023, we provide a 2024 preview with the theme of “phasing-in profitable growth.” In the prior two Super-Spiked posts, we have discussed key takeaways from 2023, including ROCE resilience for traditional energy, the significant pressure facing many new energies business models, the massive total addressable market (TAM) for global energy demand, especially given the significant unmet energy needs of the other 7 (soon to be 9) billion people on Earth, and the ongoing “Super Vol” macro backdrop.

For traditional energy in 2024, we believe leading companies will be able to articulate and demonstrate what their unique value proposition is. ROCE improvement in and of itself is not enough; there is a need to demonstrate long-term profitability resilience and articulate a positive equity story.

For new energies, the questions are more around figuring out which new businesses will scale excluding subsidies. When we look at the massive energy TAM and take into account the desire among developing countries to have geopolitically secure energy sources, there is a major role for new energies to play, even before also taking into account environmental objectives. Sorting through the rubble of this year’s sell-off, or considering new opportunities, will be the focus.

As 2023 winds down, we would like to wish all Super-Spiked subscribers a Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, Happy New Year, and Happy Holiday Season! We will see you early in 2024.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

Subscribed

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.

LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.

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DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

This week's video is a follow up to last week’s “Reframing the growth versus returns trade-off debate” post (here). We provide additional perspectives on the opportunity for leading energy companies to narrow, if not close, the large valuation gap that we believe exists for companies capable of sustaining top quartile profitability. The ability to sustain profitability, somewhat paradoxically, requires risk taking via some mixture of M&A, exploration, global, new energies, or infrastructure investments. We also note that items like dividend/stock buyback policy and ESG & climate objectives are “table stakes” and not core investment drivers on their own.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.

LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

We follow-up on last week's post (here) that dove into our takeaways from recent Super Major M&A activity. We look to address the issues of (1) what is the goal of recent M&A activity; (2) what consensus media or Street views do we disagree with on M&A (3) whether bigger is better; and (4) what does this mean for SMID-cap traditional energy.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.

LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

We focus on the long-term implications to the energy sector of the sharp rise in geopolitical turmoil, especially following the terrorist attack in Israel last weekend, coupled with continued stock market turmoil among past energy transition darlings like Orsted and Next Era Energy Partners among many others.

We make the following observations:

• The unmet energy needs of the other 7 billion people on Earth is massive and points to significant long-term growth potential in all forms of energy, both new technologies and traditional sources like crude oil, natural gas, coal, and nuclear.

• Yet, almost no one is calling for oil and gas companies to grow CAPEX and the major decline in New Energies equities and rising cost of capital in that space points to slower New Energies CAPEX as well, at least versus prior forecasts.

• Rising Middle East tensions and the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine come at a time of generally low OPEC spare capacity, even after considering the recent supply cuts from Saudi Arabia.

• The number of oil projects in particular being pursued continues to shrink and the cost curve is steepening.

• While we continue to characterize the commodity macro as "Super Vol" rather than "super cycle" due to economic uncertainty in three of the largest energy consuming regions--China, Europe, and the USA--the addition of new geopolitical risks in the Middle East coupled with turmoil in the New Energies space suggest it is just a matter of time before we hit a major pinch point for energy commodity prices.

• The traditional energy sector continues to be generally under-appreciated by most investors, policy makers, politicians, and academics. And we would at some point expect to find value among some New Energies equities whenever the dust settles, though that day may still be some ways into the future.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.

LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

Our video this week is titled Profits Over Preaching as we look to bring together a number of recent themes and address three interesting questions we have received while attending recent macro/industry events in Italy, Calgary, and New York.

Q1: Will peak oil supply fears return? We admit to being surprised at this question being raised, but it’s a good one. Over the past month-plus we have spent considerable time discussing our view that there is no peak to oil (or natural gas and perhaps not even coal) demand coming anytime soon. Trying to guess a future round-number date misses the fact that the total addressable market of future energy demand for the 7 (soon to be 9) billion people in the Rest of the World is massive; we will need all forms of energy to meet that eventual and inevitable demand. We have also noted the steepening oil cost curve (a sign of a shrinking number of low-cost oil projects) and the low levels of industry CAPEX as pointing to a future supply crunch. To be clear, we have never believed the world will be resource short anytime soon but it does require making an effort via CAPEX to grow supply. Right now, economic uncertainty in China, Europe, and the USA have allowed demand to be met by a variety of supply sources and we have stuck with a Super Vol rather than Super Cycle framing. It likely will take a firmer global economic footing to spark an oil super cycle.

Q2: What does XLE outperformance vs ICLN say about opportunities in traditional versus new energies? We highlight ICLN underperformance looks similar to what Goldman Sachs portfolio strategists have observed with unprofitable versus profitable tech. The market is clearly demanding evidence that business models are on-track to profitably scale and punishing those where there have been disappointments. While there is a role for government to play in establishing incentives, rules, and regulations, we believe caution is warranted for businesses where government is picking technology winners and fully subsidizing business models.

Q3: Are we therefore just being polite when we say new energies have a future? No, we are not simply trying to be polite! One should be careful not to assume struggles in one area (e.g., offshore wind) indicate it is all doomed; it isn’t. In fact, new energy opportunities have a wide swath of business models, exposures, capital intensity, geographies, subsidy needs, and ownership structures. Tesla has shown $ trillion dreams can be realized. But even on a much smaller scale, there are many interesting opportunities to consider. No one should confuse our pragmatism with pessimism about new energies. We will need it all, both new and old, if the world is to meet its long-term energy needs.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.

LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

This week we stick with the video format to provide an update on “where are we in the cycle” for traditional energy.

Key messages:

(1) We are still early in a new structural bull phase for ROCE.

• ROCE vs WTI is holding up well, despite sequentially lower oil prices

• LTM ROCE remains at or above 20% for the fifth straight quarter

• Net debt has ticked up off recent lows, but traditional energy balance sheets overall are much improved

• CAPEX remains in check and well below danger zone levels.

(2) We are early in the market moving past the idea that oil & gas is a sunset industry.

• Traditional energy has now fully recovered lost ground at the start of COVID relative to the S&P 500, ICLN “Clean Energy” ETF, and forward oil prices.

• Looking over longer time periods, traditional energy is still trailing other areas by large margins.

• Most importantly, there remains a very wide gap between the sector’s discounted S&P weighting (now about 4.5%) versus ROCE, a gap we expect to narrow via an eventual re-rating higher of traditional energy.

• We continue to believe oil demand will grow, excluding recessions, for the foreseeable future; arguments calling for “peak oil demand” are in the process of being obliterated.

(3) For the time being, we still prefer “super vol” over “super cycle” to describe the commodity macro backdrop.

• In the near term, we are in an environment of rocky GDP in the three largest oil consuming areas—China, Europe, and the United States.

• We are not yet in a period where oil prices can rally into strengthening GDP, as we saw in the 2002-2008 cycle.

• The oil cost curve is narrowing and steepening , suggesting a supply crunch is coming.

• But range bound long-dated oil (60 months forward) reinforces our “super vol” rather than “super cycle” perspectives.

This will be our final Super-Spiked of Summer 2023; we will return the Saturday after Labor Day. We hope everyone enjoys the last days of summer!

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.

LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.

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DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

This week's video continues our now month-long series of analyzing the significant long-term growth potential we see for crude oil, which is in sharp contrast to consensus fears that "peak oil demand" is imminent (i.e., within the next 5 years). Frankly, the numbers in the developing world are overwhelming in terms of overall energy needs. We will need all forms of energy, both traditional sources, and, hopefully, new technologies as well.

To apply some numbers to the issue, the lucky one billion of us that live in the USA, Canada, Western Europe, Japan, Australia, or New Zealand used 41 million b/d of crude oil in 2022, or about 13 barrels per person per year. In contrast, the other 7 billion people in the Rest of the World used 59 mn b/d, or just 3 barrels per person per year. Even as attempts are made to reduce rich-country oil demand, the upside potential in the developing world we believe is magnitudes greater. We point to an equivalent 10 barrel per person per year consumption level as what is possible for the developing world over the coming decades. We will need a whole bunch of new technologies to help meet the implied energy demand growth required for the Rest of the World to reach rich country standards of living without actually growing to 10 barrels of oil consumption per capita. But the idea that crude oil will not play a role and would globally decline is pure fantasy. Looking at the numbers, it's not a close call.

In the video, we discuss the pushback we have received, which has been pretty underwhelming to be honest. As a reminder, we approach energy markets as analysts, not advocates for any particular fuel source. Our only ideology is that we are pro-capitalism, anti-socialism. It's not about liking or disliking our viewpoint. It is about what the numbers show. And the numbers are overwhelming in terms of continued crude oil demand growth for the foreseeable future.

The end, for crude oil (and natural gas) is not near.

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Subscribed

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.

LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

This week’s video is part 1 (of at least 2) that will address the question of “is oil a sunset industry?” The sunset industry narrative has been driven by concerns about (1) being at or near “peak oil demand” due to so-called “energy transition” and (2) the sector being doomed to structurally weak profitability with 2022 being treated as a one-off due to Russia-Ukraine.

Our emphatic answer is “no, the oil industry is nowhere near being in its sunset phase.” Global oil demand is on-track to obliterate peak demand concerns fueled by the IEA’s infamous “Net Zero by 2050” report. In contrast to that scenario which called for a 25% drop in oil demand by 2030 to 75 mn b/d versus a supposed 2019 peak of 100 mn b/d, oil demand is now on-track to rise to at least 105 mn b/d by 2028 per the IEA. As we look at the fact that the other 7 billion people on Earth are using just 3 barrels per person on average versus the 15-16 barrels per capita used by the lucky 1 billion of us that live in the United States, Western Europe, Canada, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand, we see significant scope for oil demand to rise well into the 2030s and possibly beyond. As is now a core theme of ours: the energy transition needs to transition to one that is centered around meeting the energy needs of the Rest of the World as its over-arching objective.

In part 2, we plan to address our favorable view of oil industry profitability. While we have preferred the “Super Vol” language to describe the oil macro, we have used the super cycle language to describe our outlook for sector profitability. We are most encouraged by the fact that over the last four quarters as oil prices have corrected, profitability relative to the oil price has remained structurally better than what we saw last decade. We plan to follow up on our profitability outlook in part 2 of this series after 2Q2023 earnings later in August.

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Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

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This week's video brings together our last two written posts that questioned the market's obsession with OPEC noise and short-term inventory changes, especially when contemplating the potential for an oil super-cycle. We observe that inventory movements drive the front-end of the curve, but do not offer insight on the long-term cycle. It is the long-end of the forward that gives the signal as to whether we are in a trading market or a super cycle. So far, it is the former; hence our use of the "Super Vol" rather than "Super Cycle" phraseology.

The key to a rise in long-dated prices would be a combination of US shale oil supply disappointments relative to rig count and signs that global GDP was accelerating and could maintain momentum with higher spot oil. The steepening and growing maturity of the non-OPEC supply curve, coupled with moderate global oil demand growth, suggests a pinch point will likely come, it just hasn't obviously arrived yet.

The final area discussed is the impact of "Super Vol" vs "Super-Cycle" on sector profitability. Perhaps paradoxically, a volatile, "grind-it-out" macro backdrop may be more conducive to sustain advantaged ROCE than one where a super-cycle materializes. Avoiding the ROCE "quadrilateral of death" that we have previously discussed is a key objective for individual companies and the sector broadly.

Finally, we'd like to highlight two appearances from this past week. I was on Andrew Stotz's "My Worst Investment Ever" podcast (here), where he discussed his regret of ignoring sector ROCE erosion during the second half of the Super-Spike era. He also joined Canadian portfolio manager Eric Nuttall on a Twitter Spaces (here) hosted by Twitter #EFT commodities super-star Tracy Shuchart (@chigrl). Key themes discussed included Super Vol vs Super-Cycle, the outlook for Canadian energy, sector profitability trends, and perspectives on energy transition.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.

LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

This week we provide a video update on our views of the appropriate role for oil & gas companies as it relates to so-called “energy transition.” The video is motivated by ongoing commentary, especially from the policy world, as to whether a meaningfully greater percentage of cash flows should be redirected to low-carbon opportunities and away from traditional oil & gas CAPEX or dividends/stock buybacks. This video harkens back to one of our first Super-Spiked posts titled Stop Trying to get Blockbuster Video—i.e., Big Oil—to accelerate energy transition (here).

It remains our view that the single best thing an oil & gas company can do, in particular those based in the United States, Canada, or Europe, is to profitably produce as much oil and natural gas as they reasonably can in order to help meet the energy needs of the world. In the video, we comment on the role new companies—rather than legacy entities—usually play in advancing new technologies or paradigms (e.g., Blockbuster Video vs Netflix, Tesla vs traditional auto OEMs, etc.), but reflect on the “adaptation” pushback we have received. An example of successful adaptation includes the improved online presence of legacy brick-and-mortar retailers after initially struggling with the rise of internet retailing.

None of this is to argue that there is nothing traditional energy companies should be doing as it relates to future energy technologies, many of which are likely to experience significant growth in coming decades. For some companies, there are logical business extension opportunities. It also seems reasonable to allocate a portion of CAPEX to new energies as a modern version of an “exploration” budget, either directly or by participating in a venture capital portfolio.

Finally, we discuss what we believe are the environmental and climate responsibilities of oil & gas companies, including (1) continuing to prioritize health, safety, and the environment (HSE) programs, (2) eliminating Scope 1 emissions, (3) being on a path toward near zero methane flaring/venting/leaks, and (4) helping find solutions to the orphan wells issue in various locations. Ultimately, we believe the world greatly benefits from a healthy US, Canadian, and European oil and gas industry.

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Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.

LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.

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DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

This week we provide a video update on our view about the need for "energy transition" as a concept to itself transition to one that is focused on meeting the energy supply needs of the 7 billion people that live outside of the United States, Canada, Europe, and Japan.

We discuss our ongoing concerns about risks to financing needed energy supply, which is now materializing in Africa. We highlight that energy transition will likely be approached by countries as meeting a hierarchy of needs, with availability coming first followed by affordability followed by geopolitical security followed by environmental and climate considerations. With that said, an analysis of commodity supply/demand indicates there is a role for both efficiency and new technologies to play in areas that lack sufficient oil, natural gas, or coal supplies.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and interact directly with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.

LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.

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DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

This week we present an update on "Where Are We In The Energy Cycle" with a focus on (1) sector profitability; (2) financing for traditional energy; and (3) the need to “extend the runway” by which companies can generate advantaged returns and shareholder distributions.

The ROCE cycle remains fundamentally healthy with 4Q2022 sector ROCE staying "above the regression line" so to speak despite falling oil prices since 2Q2022. A key objective for companies and investors will be to avoid the "ROCE quadrilateral of death" which is explained in the video.

Financing risk continues to increase as an expanding list of European financial and insurance firms declare they will no longer support new oil & gas developments. The demise of Credit Suisse we believe could accelerate the disappearance of European finance from traditional energy. In the United States, the regional banking crisis sparked by Silicon Valley Bank's failure raises uncertainty about U.S. regional banks in general, a key source of financing especially for smaller traditional energy firms.

Finally, we conclude with a discussion of how to think about the inherent need in a naturally depleting business to "extend the runway" by adding inventory, projects, or assets at a time investors absolutely want "no new spending" yet its still early in the CAPEX cycle and cost of capital is high and competition is low.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me. Also available at https://veriten.com.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.

LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

This week's Super-Spiked video podcast is a discussion on risk taking and future capital availability for traditional energy companies of all shapes and sizes. If you are a public company, we appreciate that it is really difficult to buck the austerity demanded by shareholders. However, an inherently Super Vol macro backdrop and that very hesitancy toward new capital formation in the sector will undoubtedly lead to interesting risk/reward investment opportunities that some will look to capitalize on. Companies that look best positioned today to take advantage of potential opportunities include those that are privately-owned, though not necessarily private equity backed, as well as national oil companies (NOCs).

Finally, we discuss our view that EU climate & energy policies as well as the Glasgow Alliance For Net Zero (GFANZ) is likely to put downward pressure on capital availability for traditional energy. In my view, no company in any region is immune from these pressures and understanding the direct or trickle down effects to your bank and insurance group is critical.

🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me.

• Veriten: You can now also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and also receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.

LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

A videopod that captures the last 3 written posts on Super-Spiked and what can be learned from the global coal sector when evaluating strategies and investments in oil and gas.

🔔 3 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was created and lightly directed, edited, and produced by Super-Spiked Productions.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me..

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

View Details

WATCH the video on YouTube by clicking the RED button above.

LISTEN to audio only via the Substack player by clicking the BLUE button above.

STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast player app.

DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.

This is part 2 of the videopod series that dives into my January 1, 2023 post, Five Big Questions At The Start of 2023. I look to answer the question: What does Tesla’s valuation correction mean for EV growth projections?

• First, I take a look at bubble stock cycles and what has been the toggle from the bull phase of fundamental growth, free money, and climate ideology to the bear phase that has been hit by energy pragmatism, the end of free money, and growth deceleration.

• Next, I look at the underlying assumptions for “peak” oil demand, which rests on a combination of expected fuel economy improvements along with “hockey stick” EV growth forecasts.

• Most notably, there is zero evidence of a step change improvement in either fuel economy gains or, more broadly, global oil demand efficiency relative to GDP growth.

• On EVs, the very real and dramatic growth in Tesla sales over the past seven years has led to hockey stick EV adoption assumptions. While I expect EV sales to grow in the years and decades ahead, I believe the hockey stick assumptions will be revised sharply lower in coming years.

• As $TSLA’s outsize valuation premium versus legacy OEMs diminishes, the significant valuation envy, which has contributed to EV growth strategies at legacy auto makers, will similarly be scaled back, in my view.

• In the absence of a step change improvement in oil efficiency gains coupled with what I believe will be downside revisions to EV hockey stick growth forecasts, I would expect oil demand assumptions to be revised higher (relative to the “peak” demand expectations). I believe this will lead to traditional energy regaining “terminal value” credit as the date of its anticipated demise gets pushed to the right.

🔔 3 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was created and lightly directed, edited, and produced by Super-Spiked Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

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A deep dive into question #1 of my “Five Big Questions At The Start of 2023”, which was how to think about ROCE volatility in the short-term versus the longer-term structural ROCE upcycle I believe is unfolding.

A pdf of the slide deck used in the video can be downloaded from the link below and a link to last week’s written post follows.

🔔 3 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• Exhibit sources: All exhibits were previously published at https://arjunmurti.substack.com on January 1, 2023 (Five Big Questions at the Start of 2023) or July 23, 2022 (The Pursuit of Vikings). Sources include Bloomberg, S&P CapitalIQ, and Super-Spiked.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was created and lightly directed, edited, and produced by Super-Spiked Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

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In this video I address the age-old question: “Are we at peak for traditional energy?” This is a question always asked after seemingly every rally irrespective of the broader backdrop: structural bull, structural bear, cyclical or seasonal rally. If you want to skip the 17 minute video, the short answer (SPOILER ALERT) is “No, I do not believe we are anywhere near the peak of the structural energy upcycle.”

I would also like to wish everyone a Happy Holiday season. This will likely be the last Super-Spiked post for 2022. See you in 2023!!!

🔔 3 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• Exhibit sources: All exhibits were previously published December 3, 2022 (Where Are We in the Energy Cycle, A Framework) or December 10, 2022 (Attracting Capital Back To Energy: Q&A and Clarifications). Sources include Bloomberg, S&P CapitalIQ, and Super-Spiked.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was created and lightly directed, edited, and produced by Super-Spiked Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

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A discussion on attracting capital flows back to traditional energy, which I believe is critically needed if we are ever to move to a healthier energy evolution era from the messy energy transition quagmire we find ourselves in.

Note: I have started publishing the Videopods on my YouTube channel the day before Super-Spiked is published given the need to copy the link from the YouTube feed into Super-Spiked.

🔔 3 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• Exhibit sources: All exhibits were previously published on November 5, 2022 ($XLE Resurrection) or November 12, 2022 (Metaverse Meets Universe). Sources include Bloomberg, S&P CapitalIQ, and Super-Spiked.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was created and lightly directed, edited, and produced by Super-Spiked Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

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A framework for investors and Oil & Gas companies in navigating the madness that is US/Canada/EU energy public policy and so-called “climate actions”. I also take a look at “anti-woke ESG” funds, which I don’t think is the answer to the issues with virtue-signaling ESG.

🔔 3 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was created and lightly directed, edited, and produced by Super-Spiked Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

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A follow-up on last week's post discussing former Exxon CEO Lee Raymond's unique approach to leadership and ensuring Exxon was a dominant S&P 500 leader during his tenure. What Would Lee Raymond Do in the messy energy transition era we currently are in? Click on the blue button above to hear the audio only in the Substack player or double click on the red button to watch the YouTube video version.

🔔 3 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was created and lightly directed, edited, and produced by Super-Spiked Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

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This week’s Super-Spiked Videopod examines the interplay between the various themes I have been highlighting in Super-Spiked and how they reinforce or counter-act one another, driving both virtuous and vicious cycles depending on one’s perspective and how the themes play out. For audio only, please click on the play button on the Substack player or listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify (links below). For the video presentation, please click on the YouTube play button above or go to my YouTube channel to watch (link below).

🔔 3 Ways to Subscribe

• All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday, with an occasional intra-week additional video update.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me.

• YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

• Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

• Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

• This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was created and lightly directed, edited, and produced by Super-Spiked Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

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This is the audio from my appearance on the Smarter Markets podcast published August 27, 2022. It was hosted by David Greely, a former Goldman Sachs colleague and current senior economic advisor at Abaxx Technologies. You can listen by pressing play in the Substack media player directly above or you can find the links to listen on Apple podcasts, Spotify, and on my YouTube channel (links below).

There will be no Super-Spiked published over Labor Day weekend. See you in two weeks and hope to give everyone a real time update on the European energy crisis, Lexus Holes in 1 at pro-am events, the pros and cons of being private versus publicly traded, and much more.

🔔 3 Ways to Subscribe

All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday, with an occasional intra-week additional video update.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me.

YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was recorded, edited, and produced by the Smarter Markets by abaxx podcast team and was originally published on their feed on August 27, 2022.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

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This week’s videopod was originally recorded on Twitter Spaces on August 7, 2022, where I joined #COM to discuss my outlook for Canadian energy. It is an audio only recording, but I have included the YouTube link in case you prefer it to the Substack player.

Speakers (in order of appearance):

Sohaib Abbas@sohaibab9

Arjun⚡️Murti @ArjunNMurti

Mark Skittle🇨🇦@BJamz2022

Alberta, PhD (Poor/Poorer)@Albertagarbage

David Heikkinen@heik_energy

William Lacey@William39009143

0:00: Welcome and introduction by @sohaibab9

2:15: Introductory comments by @ArjunNMurti focused on why I started Super-Spiked.

7:35: Question from @sohaibab9: What is the Role of Canadian energy production in the world stage?

21:00: Question from @sohaibab9: Why is there a misperception that Canadian production is high cost and unprofitable especially versus American barrels and other areas?

28:00: Comment from @BJamz2022, a subsurface SAGD engineer, on how he has looked at full-cycle versus half-cycle economics.

30:40: Question @Bjamz2022: Question on how can ESG considerations can play into securing expanded pipeline export capacity for Canadian oils?

45:45: Question from @Albertagarbage, live from an operating SAGD pad: What is outlook for cost of capital for Canadian oils vis-a-vis US oils and potential to develop oil sands resources vs US shale oil?

53:40: Question from @sohaibab9: What made you make the original Super-Spike call in 2005? What are the similarities and differences with the outlook today?

1:08:10: Question from @heik_energy: What do you think it takes to get the broader market to favor Energy over Tech?

1:13:50: Comment from @heik_energy on 1970s performance on Energy and then an update on what he is up to now.

1:18:15: Question from @William39009143 (read by Sohaib): What does Arjun think about cost of capital for industry?

1:24:15: Question from @BJamz2022: Is it even possible for CAPEX to ramp given aging of the workforce?

1:31:45: Comment from @William39009143 thanking me for participating in today’s Twitter Spaces.

1:35:25: Question from @sohaibab9: When will Canadian energy companies start to draw more attention from American investors?

1:41:15: Closing remarks from @sohaibab9, @BJamz2022, and @ArjunNMurti

🔔 3 Ways to Subscribe

All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday, with an occasional intra-week additional video update.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me.

YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

⚖️Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

📜 Credits

This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was originally recorded on August 7, 2022 on Twitter Spaces. This version was lightly edited and produced by Super-Spiked Productions.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

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⚖️ Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

🔔 3 Ways to Subscribe

All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday, with an occasional intra-week additional video update.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me.

YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotif y or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

📜 Credits

Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman on Apple Music: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

Exhibit sources: Bloomberg (slide 2), BP Statistical Review of World Energy (slide 4), Super-Spiked (all slides).

This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was created and lightly directed, edited, and produced by Super-Spiked Productions.

Intro and outro designs were created in Canva. The body of the video was shot on an M1 Mac Mini. The video was produced and mixed in iMovie on an M1 Mac Mini.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

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⚖️ Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

🔔 3 Ways to Subscribe

All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday, with an occasional intra-week additional video update.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me.

YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotif y or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

📜 Credits

Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman on Apple Music: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was created and lightly directed, edited, and produced by Super-Spiked Productions.

Intro and outro designs were created in Canva. The body of the video was shot on an M1 Mac Mini. The video was produced and mixed in iMovie on an M1 Mac Mini.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

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Bank Proxy Statements and IEA Net Zero Report

Please find below links to the referenced 2022 proxy statements for the banks mentioned in the videopod. Shareholder resolutions are toward the end of the proxies.

Bank of America: link to 2022 proxy

Citigroup: link to 2022 proxy

Goldman Sachs: link to 2022 proxy

JP Morgan: link to 2022 proxy

Wells Fargo: link to 2022 proxy

All five proxies make reference to the IEA’s report, Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector: link to report

⚖️ Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

🔔 3 Ways to Subscribe

All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday, with an occasional intra-week additional video update.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me.

YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotif y or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

📜 Credits

Intro & Outro music: Dropkick Murphys Which Side Are You On?

This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was created and lightly directed, edited, and produced by Super-Spiked Productions. Intro and outro designs were created in Canva. The body of the video was shot on an iPhone Pro and in power point on an M1 Pro MacBook Pro. The video was produced and mixed in iMovie on a M1 Pro MacBook Pro.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

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A 9 minute live update and videopod from the Home of Golf and site of the 150th Open Championship in July. Nine points to match my handicap index to highlight some of the key takeaways from this trip and recent research. And on the handicap, I started playing golf when I stopped at Goldman in 2014. I am happy with the progress I have made.

Back to energy, nine takeaways:

First, as an American, thank goodness for the combination of US shale oil and gas as well as Canadian energy production. We are balanced in supply/demand for oil and a natural gas exporter. That is not the case here in the UK or Europe more broadly where a climate only ideology has run rampant. To be clear, I support decarbonization efforts. But they cannot come without due consideration for energy availability, affordability, reliability and security...none of which really exists here in the UK or Europe.

Second, I suspect the relative maturity of the North Sea means greater investment spending and less hostility from local enviro extremists wouldn't materially change UK or European balances. We are already seeing the early signs of a greater desired co- operation for more American LNG. Both US gas and crude oil as well as Canadian energy are part of the solution to wean Europe off its dependency on hostile nations.

Third, in the US oil and gas development can co-exist with climate & environmental progress while also recognizing we need to ensure energy is available, affordable, reliable and secure. We do NOT need to gut climate & enviro regs. But we do need the political class to basically walk and chew gum. We need to push back against American pipeline and infrastructure obstructionism while striving to make American and Canadian barrels and MCFs methane free and ultimately net zero on Scopes 1 and 2.

Fourth, on the sector. I am realistic about the short-term-ism that comes with the institutional investor dominance of the sector. I expect commodity prices to be super volatile this decade and during times of weakness, perhaps recession related, it would be normal to expect corrections, potentially meaningful corrections, to occur. But if I could simplify it, energy troughed at 2% of the S&P 500 in October 2020. It is now back to 4%. Based on its expected 2022 earnings share, it should get back to 7% of the S&P...and in my view in the coming years will get back to at least 10% of the S&P.

Fifth, on a long-term basis, despite the sharp rally off all-time lows, the sector is still very out of favor. Returns on capital are on-track to be sustainably better than last decade, free cash flow and returning cash to shareholders has replaced production growth as the competitive lens, balance sheet strength is returning, and the wrong mindset that this is a sunset industry, especially in the USA and Canada is simply wrong. US and Canada are about 23 mn b/d of a 100 mn b/d oil (liquids) market. We should be the last barrels produced and a much larger share of the energy pie going forward.

Sixth, there is still very little competition for capital in traditional energy. Euro Majors are out. Mainstream private equity is sitting out this funding cycle. NOCs and IOCs are going in different directions. Whose left to invest and when do they come back?

Seventh, with no competition and still lots of doom and gloom about the ultimate fate of traditional energy, and what is on-track to be a multi-year possibly decade long energy crisis era, I think it is about as interesting of a time as I can remember for new capital formation. If you have a good idea, AND, can find a sponsor, it's an interesting time.

Eighth, we all owe a big thank you to oil and gas industry workers. Go visit an oilfield or refinery. These are not easy jobs. They require hard work and strict attention to health, safety, and the environment. On Wall Street, we mostly interact with senior management. They too are needed. But make no mistake it is the working class that does the hard work to ensure I have enough power to shoot this video.

Ninth, Scotland is the Home of Golf. These links courses are spectacular. There is no comparison to golf anywhere else in the world.

So, I'll end on a personal note with some first hand, on the ground footage of the energy situation here in the UK. For all of you sensitive types out there, relax, it's for entertainment purposes only.

⚖️ Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

Regards,

Arjun

🔔 3 Ways to Subscribe

All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday, with an occasional intra-week additional video update.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me.

YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotif y or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

📜 Credits

Intro & Outro music: The Auld Town Band & Pipes on Apple Music: Scotland The Brave.

This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was created and lightly directed, edited, and produced by Super-Spiked Productions. Intro and outro designs were created in Canva. The body of the video was shot on an iPhone Pro. The video was produced and mixed in iMovie on a M1 Pro MacBook Pro.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

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A 23 minute video that discusses how we have moved from what was a messy energy transition environment pre-Ukraine to a now full blow energy crisis era post Ukraine, catalyzed by Russia moving to pariah state status.

US shale accounted for 70% of global oil supply growth last decade, but faces significant pressures to not grow as fast this coming decade from a combination of traditional investors due to poor historic ROCE, ESG investors focused on energy transition, and current US government policy that is obsessed with virtue signaling about the climate portion of energy and climate policies.

US and Canadian oil supply is needed more than ever, especially given the very poor track record of oil supply from pariah states. I continue to emphasize that there is a difference between “good” barrels from the United States and Canada and “bad” barrels from Russia and Iran. Even the most die-hard climate activist should recognize that as we are transitioning, it is better for all aspects of energy and climate policy to prioritize US and Canadian oil and gas production over supply from unfriendly areas.

⚖️ Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

Regards,

Arjun

🔔 3 Ways to Subscribe

All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday, with an occasional intra-week additional video update.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me.

YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotif y or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

📜 Credits

Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman on Apple Music: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was created and lightly directed, edited, and produced by Super-Spiked Productions. Intro and outro designs were created in Canva. The body of the video was shot on iPhone and on an M1 Mac Mini. The video was produced and mixed in iMovie on an M1 Mac Mini.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

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A 4.5 minute intra-week videopod to highlight the notable rhetorical shift from various politicians and “climate only” types that are increasingly calling for more US shale and today, incredibly, more Canadian oil. We need more good barrels and fewer bad barrels.

⚖️ Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

Regards,

Arjun

🔔 3 Ways to Subscribe

All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website. I have been aiming to publish about once a week, usually on Saturday.

Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email and directly interact with me.

YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed of

Super-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.

Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotif y or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.

📜 Credits

Intro & Outro music: Children of Bodom, Needled 24/7.

This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was created and lightly directed, edited, and produced by Super-Spiked Productions. Intro and outro designs were created in Canva. The body of the video was shot on iPhone. The video was produced and mixed in iMovie on an M1 Mac Mini.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

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My apologies for all the background noise, but it was recorded live on location at 8th Wonder Brewery in Houston where the event was held.

The intersection of crypto, bitcoin, and Web 3.0 with energy markets, both traditional and low-carbon, is a general topic area I am in the process of ramping up on. Toward that end, I attended the Digital Wildcatter's EMPOWER: Energizing Bitcoin conference at Houston's 8th Wonder Brewery on March 30-31. Casual dress, a brewery, a "Beetles" stage, bitcoin mining demonstration projects, and free bottled water helped create an excellent learning environment (for the record, I did not drink any beer during this Houston visit).

Takeaways

Signal vs noise. I will use my ESG views as an analogy to bitcoin/crypto. With ESG, I have differentiated between the “virtue signaling” variety that we could all do without and I think causes far more harm than good and “substantive” ESG that is indeed needed. The equivalent for bitcoin/crypto, in my view, are what I believe are called the Bitcoin maximalists that believe the US dollar is doomed and Bitcoin is its inevitable replacement. While I reserve the right to change my mind in the future, I do not share the view that Bitcoin will be an excellent reserve currency replacement for the US dollar. The part of the crypto-verse I do find highly intriguing is the potential for distributed blockchain ledger technology to allow for digital privacy, asset ownership, contracts, decentralization, reduced dependency on Big Tech and Big Banks, and related themes.

Future currency? Not so fast. While I agree that fiat currency debasement is a fact of life, I am unaware of hard currency alternatives that lead to better societal outcomes. I also have not heard any Bitcoin maximalist accurately (in my view) describe the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policies and what it means or doesn't mean for money creation. To that end, I would encourage everyone to listen to Jeff Snider and Emil Kalinowsky on their excellent Eurodollar University podcast (Spotify or Apple Podcasts) for a real education on the Federal Reserve, monetary policy, and the plumbing of our global financial system. The US dollar, like democracy and capitalism, is far from perfect. But it is better than every alternative humankind has come up with thus far.

Web 3! Crypto via so-called "proof of work" is the fuel that allows blockchain verification in a "trustless" environment. Proof of work is compute power intensive; hence the link between Web 3 and energy markets. It is early days for Web 3. My initial take is that we are in the "Amazon starts selling books online" stage of it. The long-term upside potential is meaningful for energy markets to the extent proof of work remains the enabling mechanism to secure the blockchain.

Methane/gas management. Currently, the relationship between traditional energy companies and bitcoin miners comes via stranded gas arrangements. Or perhaps more accurately, areas where an E&P company wants to grow oil production but there is inadequate natural gas takeaway capacity. Bitcoin miners have struck deals to capture natural gas that would otherwise have been flared/vented (which is terrible, by the way) in order to generate power via a natural gas generator, which is then used to power the massive ASIC computers used to mine bitcoin. The oil company benefits by receiving value for otherwise worthless natural gas, while also benefitting the environment via reduced flaring/venting. A private Bakken E&P and its bitcoin mining partner at the conference indicated the E&P was receiving a price for its gas that was greater than zero but less than the equivalent pipeline gas price.

Bitcoin miners want cheap, reliable power. Apparently bitcoin miners are no different than all of the rest of humanity in desiring the least expensive, most reliable power. In some applications, this comes through renewables like solar, wind, and hydro. In other cases, it will come through stranded natural gas. Importantly, bitcoin miners enjoy (seemingly) near complete location flexibility, which could be helpful to monetizing energy resources in remote locations (e.g., Africa, rural/in-land locations).

⚡️On a personal note...

I would like to acknowledge Josh Crumb of ABAXX Technologies and Max Gagliardi of the TalkEnergy podcast for sparking my interest in this topic, and the team at the Digital Wildcatter's for hosting this unique conference.

⚖️ Disclaimer

I certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.

Regards,

Arjun

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Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman on Apple Music: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

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Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman on Apple Music: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

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Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman on Apple Music: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.

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In episode 2, I focus on key highlights of the 2nd ROCE Deep Dive post, From Fake Well IRRs and Capital Surplus to ROCE and Capital Discipline.

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Please find my inaugural voice memo explainer of my December 7, 2021 post, From Not-For-Profit to a New ROCE Super-Cycle (link to full note below). I reference Exhibits 1, 2 and 6, which I have also copied below. Clicking the “play” button will take you to the weblink where you can listen. My apologies that at the time of publication, I am not yet set-up for this to appear in popular podcast apps.

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