The Why? Curve: Recent Episodes
Phil Dobbie
Each week Phil Dobbie and Roger Hearing get to grips with one issue that impacts our lives. It could be economic, social, technological or geopolitical. Whatever the subject, they'll talk to the experts who can give help explain what's really going on. And Phil and Roger back it up with their own research and opinions. It's half an hour to get across one of the key issues of the time, and they promise, it'll never be boring.
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With Labour almost certain to take the reins of power on July 5th, almost none of the incoming ministers have ever run anything bigger than a church fete. Right away they will have to take over billion-pound budgets and huge departments. Is it ridiculous to put gifted but untrained amateurs in charge of the world’s sixth-largest economy? Sir Geoff Mulgan thinks there should be tuition in how to govern for all politicians. The former Blair adviser - now professor of Collective Intelligence, Public Policy and Social Innovation at University College, London - tells Roger and Phil that having leaders who know what they’re doing from day one is crucial for our democracy
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TV debates, TikTok stunts, falling off a paddleboard - does any of it influence how people vote? What works in an election campaign? Does ANYONE read a manifesto? How can politicians connect effectively with the public? Or has everyone already made up their minds? Dr Matt Walsh, head of the School of Journalism, Media and Culture at the University of Cardiff, tells Phil and Roger what, if anything, actually moves the dial.
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Promises galore - more doctors’ surgeries, pension triple-lock plus, free social care, a boost in the size of the army - but how much of any of this can we afford, whoever gets into Number 10 on July 5th? The huge public debt, lack of investment and productivity, and politicians refusal to countenance tax increases all point to sums that don’t add up. Dr Michael Nower of Durham University takes Phil and Roger through the harsh realities behind the campaign rhetoric in the UK’s 2024 election.
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Are leaders ever held to account for starting wars or killing civilians. The International Criminal Court has already issued an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin, and one is in prospect for Israel’s prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu. Is it right to try to prosecute the leader of a democracy with a functional justice system of its own? Does a court that has mainly jailed African dictators over the last 20 years but ignored the actions of great powers, have any credibility? Dr Clare Frances Moran, lecturer in public international law at Aberdeen University tells Phil and Roger what’s at stake and why it matters.
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The new Russian offensive towards Kharkiv suggests Moscow has seized the initiative in the two-year conflict. With not enough ammunition or soldiers, can Kyiv hold the line? Is the support from the EU, NATO and the US going to last — especially if Donald Trump returns to the White House in January? But also can Vladimir Putin’s war economy in Russia be sustained long enough to gain him eventual victory? Phil and Roger get a perspective on the course of Europe’s longest war since 1945 from Christoph Bluth, Professor of International Relations and Security at the University of Bradford.
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With almost everyone under 30 on TikTok or Instagram, and claims of rampant bullying, sexploitation and pornography - is there any way to protect young people from the harmful effects? The social media giants wring their hands but do nothing. Governments launch inquiries and claim they’re doing something, but the awful stories keep piling up. Could there be effective regulation? Should we even try? Dr Emily Setty of the University of Surrey tells Phil and Roger - equipping young people to deal with what they see is better than trying to stop them seeing it
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As the smoke clears from the low-turnout council elections, what have we learnt about the prospects for the upcoming general election? Are the Tories heading for oblivion, or (as Rishi believes) a hung parliament? Is Labour damaged by the Gaza war, or by its own overcautious attitude? Can Reform be anything other than a box to put a cross in for disillusioned Conservatives? Tim Bale, Professor of Politics at Queen Mary, University of London, tells Phil and Roger it’s still far from clear that Keir Starmer will get a landslide, or that the Tories won’t find a way out of their death spiral.
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Why do they do it - people willing to crowd into small boats, put their lives at risk and pay thousands of pounds to cross the Channel? There's no sign threats of deportation to Rwanda will make any difference to their efforts to reach the UK. Phil and Roger have been speaking to someone who's researched the motivations of those making that risky crossing - Dr Jessica Hagen-Zanker, senior research fellow at the ODI, tells us what is driving the desperate efforts to get to the UK, and what effect government policies have on controlling all this, as outlined in her article https://theconversation.com/why-many-policies-to-lower-migration-actually-increase-it-227271
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On the edge of global conflict - the world held its breath as Israel and Iran attacked each other directly for the first time. But have we really stepped back from the brink? There’s no end in sight to the bloodshed in Gaza, and anger is building globally over the lack of progress in bringing in aid. Can a wider conflict be avoided, with the risks to oil prices and trade routes? Hasan Alhasan, senior fellow for Middle East Policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, guides Phil and Roger around the flashpoints in the world’s most troubled region.
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Growth in our economy - that’s what politicians tell us we need. But do we? And what sort of growth? And won’t that just hurt the planet even further? Is expanding GDP the only way to keep us all happy and comfortable? Daniel Susskind, Professor of Economics at King’s College, London, gives Phil and Roger his view - that growth IS necessary, but the sort of growth that recognises more than just economic priorities
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A dictator set to succeed in grabbing another sovereign nation, and challenging, with tanks and missiles, the political landscape of Europe - is this, as the Polish prime minister says, our 1939? Should the West be ready for the collapse of an arms-starved Ukraine, and a victorious Vladimir Putin poised to challenge NATO right on its borders? If Donald Trump wins the US election this year, will reliance on Washington no longer be an option for halting Russia’s expansion? David Galbreath, Professor of War and Technology at the University of Bath gives Phil and Roger his analysis of the crisis ahead
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Populist parties are gaining ground - Reform in Britain looks likely to be a major challenge for the Tories. And Donald Trump's MAGA movement looks set to propel him into the White House in November. Across Europe, too, and in Brazil, the Philippines and Turkey, we have seen the rise of groups appearing to take on the establishment on behalf of the people. So what IS populism? Why does it seem to have such a hold on our current politics? And what are the risks of government based on antagonism and fear? Andy Knott , a senior lecturer in politics and philosophy at the University of Brighton, tells Phil about the roots and consequences of populism.
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What’s happened to electric cars? Weren’t we all supposed to be driving one by now? Is it the cost, the range or the lack of charging points? Is the government still on track to phase out new petrol cars, and reach net zero on emissions? Tom Stacey of Anglia Ruskin University steers Phil and Roger through the complexities of electrifying the driving experience for all of us.
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Our prisons are at breaking point - too many inmates and not enough cells. How did we get to the point of having more a higher proportion of the population behind bars than any other country in Western Europe? Why do politicians promise “tough on crime” sentences, without providing the means to deliver that? And does prison work, anyway? More than half of those who serve short sentences, go on to be convicted again. Mark Day, deputy director of the Prison Reform Trust takes Phil and Roger through the challenges of sorting out our out-of-control system of incarceration.
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What happens when the bins aren't collected, the roads are full of holes and the libraries are shut - because the council's gone bankrupt? That's the dilemma facing local government. Europe's largest local authority, Birmingham, has just issued a notice saying it's effectively gone bust. Many others have done the same or are about to. So what has gone wrong with the system? Is the way we pay for local services in dire need of reform? Professor Peter Murphy, Director of the Public Policy and Management Research Group at Nottingham Trent University, tells Phil and Roger how bad things are and what needs to change
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Gaza casts a long shadow. In the midst of an economic crisis, in an election year, with transport, education and the NHS all limping along, what is the dominant subject, splitting parties and deciding by-elections? A war 2,000 miles away, over which the UK has next to no influence. Allegations of Islamophobia and anti-semitism are rife across the political spectrum. Even the normal processes of the Westminster parliament seem to be challenged by this issue. So why has the Gaza war assumed such a huge profile in UK politics? Robert Ford, Professor of Political Science at Manchester University, tells Phil and Roger how it has come to dominate our discourse.
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It’s a question taxing Jeremy Hunt - cut back on what we all pay to the government, or use his small surplus to prop up schools, hospitals and other neglected public services? Is his budget intended to rescue the UK economy, or to try to lessen an imminent Tory election defeat? Frances Coppola, the economist and author of “The Case For People’s QE”, takes Phil and Roger through the chancellor’s choices and the likely consequences
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Why are the prospects for young people so much worse than for their parents’ generation? They can’t buy a house, their rents are extortionate, they have a massive student debt and there’s no job security, plus they’re inheriting a climate-damaged planet. Is it all down to the greed of the baby-boomers? Or are feckless, apathetic work-shy, oversensitive youngsters their own worst enemy? And what can be done to fix intergenerational inequality? Liz Emerson, CEO and co-founder of the Intergenerational Foundation, tells Phil and Roger what needs to happen.
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Should we have the right to end our lives in the way we choose - with others allowed to help us? Euthanasia is back on the agenda after a number of celebrities pushing for a change in the law. But what about the risks - the sick and elderly feeling they are a burden to be dispensed with? The devaluing of life itself? Dr Sam Carr lecturer at the Department of Education and the Centre for Death and Society at Bath University talks to Phil and Roger about the issues surrounding assisted suicide
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Donald Trump could be back in the White House this time next year. Politicians from London to Berlin to Canberra are scratching their heads about how to deal with another season of Trump World - he’s promised to end the Ukraine war in one day, threatened to leave NATO, do deals with authoritarian leaders in Beijing and Moscow. Can the familiar western democratic way of doing things survive when the most important country is led by a man who doesn’t respect those values? Dr Andrew Gawthorpe, a historian of the US at Leiden University, tells Phil and Roger what sort of storm could come from a new Trump presidency.
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Many thousands of people are in prison for crimes they didn’t do, and their chances of getting their cases reopened are minimal at best. The Post Office scandal showed how hard it is to reverse a miscarriage of justice, even when the truth is obvious to all. The Criminal Cases Review Commission is slow and inefficient, as has been shown by recent headlines - cases decades old were finally resolved and innocent people were freed after years behind bars. So how can we make sure that the system works properly? How do we speed up the process so that people’s lives are not wasted as they are punished for something they didn’t do? Glyn Maddocks KC is a solicitor who has spent many years working to overturn miscarriages of justice. He tells Roger and Phil what needs to happen to ensure the innocent go free.
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Unheated classrooms, cancelled trains, delayed operations, potholed roads - it’s hard to avoid the impression that the UK isn’t working properly, that our systems are failing, that something has gone badly wrong. Is this because we have failed to invest? Have we outsourced pubic services to companies that have no interest in maintenance? Or do we have to face up to not being able to afford the kind of country we expect to live in? George Monbiot, the writer and Guardian columnist, sets out for Roger and Phil the ways the UK could be mended, and what he thinks needs to happen to end broken Britain.
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The UK and US launched air strikes on Houthi rebels in Yemen after their missile-attacks on international shipping - could this all turn into a regional conflict? London and Washington tell Iran to stay out, but its backing for Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis suggests it’s already involved. So can this be stopped from exploding into something much bigger, with an even more devastating effect on global trade? Shahin Modarres of the International Team For the Study Of Security tells Phil and Roger about the risks for all of us from this regional crisis
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It's the biggest year in the history of democracy - more than half of the people on earth have the chance to choose, through the ballot box, who governs them. So why is democracy - the system that gives the ultimate power to the people - in such deep trouble? Autocracies like China say their form of government works better. "Illiberal" democracies like Russia claim the countries where your vote actually counts, are weak and failing. And even beacons of democratic values like the US are caught up in threats of dictatorship and allegations of vote-rigging. Do those who say a system can't work if it's paralysed by instant popularity and short-term vote-winning, have a point? Is there something fundamentally wrong with western style of government? Natasha Lindstaet, Professor of Government at the University of Essex tells Phil and Roger why democracy is in trouble, and suggests some ways to fix it.
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It's going to be a momentous year in British politics, with a Tory administration staggering towards what almost everyone thinks will be an electoral wipeout, and a Labour leadership desperate to avoid any mistakes on their path back to power. In Scotland the SNP are looking at the damage from a year of savage headlines, and, among the smaller parties, the LibDems and Reform are seeing the polls moving in their favour. So what can we expect from 2024? Tim Bale, Professor of Politics at Queen Mary University of London takes Phil and Roger through the likely scenarios.
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A look back at the highlights of 2023 on WhyCurve.com . Phil and Roger covered everything from tax-cuts to racism, from AI to Rwanda, with experts and researchers. So here's a New Year gift - their pick of the best and most insightful discussions of the past year or so.
Featuring:
- Michele Groppi of the Defence Studies Department at King’s College, London on Israel and Gaza
- Stefan Wolff, professor of International Security at the University of Birmingham on the endless war in Ukraine
- Tim Gardiner, senior policy fellow at the Health Foundation on ways of funding the NHS
- Joan Costa-i-Font, Professor of Health Economics at the London School of Economics on dealing with obesity
- Dr Sam Power of the University of Sussex on the awarding of peerages
- Robert Hazell, professor of government and the constitution at University College London on how we appoint Prime Ministers
- David Mead, professor of human rights law at the University of East Anglia on protest laws
- The FT's Martin Wolf on attracting foreign investment into the UK
- Economist Francis Coppola on the benefits of government debt
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The last-minute dash to the shops, the frantic hunt for something just right for your cousin…. The giving season can be tough, but has buying online changed the way we think about gifts? Is it now intangibles - experiences, subscriptions, game credits - that dominate our presents? Are we buying less of the overpriced tat that used to fill our stockings? Claire McCamley, senior lecturer in marketing at the University of Huddersfield, guides Phil and Roger through the changing world of giving
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Rishi Sunak’s Rwanda bill has passed its first hurdle - it says, as a matter of law, the East African state is “safe”. But is it? Is it a place we could confidently send those who have arrived on our shores seeking asylum, and be sure they would not be at risk? Or is it, in fact, a dictatorship with a history of persecuting and killing those who disagree with the president? Michela Wrong, a journalist who has spend decades reporting on Rwanda, and wrote the book Do Not Disturb - an account of the murder of a Rwandan opposition leader - give Phil and Roger a clear picture of just how safe Rwanda is.
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The COP28 was big on promises, but can they be taken seriously when the location the president and so many of the participants are signed up to big oil? Is the secret to getting serious on mitigating climate change, getting capitalism on board? So that making money from saving the planet can become a real option? Julian Caldecott, Director of Creatura, an environmental consultancy, guides Phil and Roger around the necessities and mechanisms of making capitalism a true friend of the earth.
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All eyes have been on Gaza since October, but what has been happening in the confrontation between Ukraine and Russia - the biggest European land war since 1945? Has the West lost hope of defeating Vladimir Putin here, and is President Zelenskyy being persuaded to turn a stalemate into some sort of truce? Ukrainian doctoral research scholar and security specialist Igor Shchebetun at Sumy State University, tells Phil and Roger his country is deliberately being starved of weapons to make such a settlement inevitable - containing Russian ambitions but not defeating them
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Jeremy Hunt delivered his Autumn statement this week, with 110 policy measures. The most significant of those was a 2% cut in National Insurance contributions. Roger and Phil ask Simon French, Chief Economist and Head of Research at UK investment bank, Panmure Gordon, whether the main aim of the cuts was to bolster the chances of a win for the Conservatives at the next election? On this week’s podcast Simon says that, political cynicism aside, there is a need to boost growth in the economy, and administering cuts in tax through National Insurance ensures that it is the working population that benefits. But will it make that much difference, when those same people face higher tax contributions through the freezing of the income tax thresholds? A wide-ranging discussion that includes the need for more comprehensive tax reform, plus a snapshot on the economic wellbeing of Phil’s barber.
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Drill, baby, drill - but does it make sense to hand out, every year, new North Sea extraction licences for oil and gas as the UK government has promised? Aren’t we supposed to be ending our reliance on fossil fuels? Or is it essential for energy security to harvest what we have on our doorstep? And is the cost of a more rapid transition to renewable sources of energy too high for hard-pressed families struggling to pay their bills? Phil and Roger quiz Gavin Bridge, Professor of Economic Geography at the University of Durham, and Fellow of the Durham Energy Institute, on the costs and benefits of more North Sea extraction.
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Should animals have rights? Should dogs and cats be able to sue you for not feeding them on time? Should farm animals be able to get an injunction to stop us eating them? There’s a growing movement to recognise that many of our fellow creatures are sentient, feel pain and loss, and therefore, perhaps, should have legal rights. But how could this work? How would it change our lives? And where do we draw the line - fairness for fleas? Justice for microbes? Phil and Roger consult Dr Stephen Cooke, associate professor of Political Theory at the University of Leicester.
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Artificial intelligence is everywhere - and politicians and business leaders are rushing to get on top of what could be an advance bigger than the Industrial Revolution. But could it also be a risk to human life on the scale of an asteroid collision or nuclear war? Is there any practicable way to control something we barely understand? Or will caution stop us from reaping the huge benefits for universal prosperity? Tony Prescott, Professor of Cognitive Robotics at Sheffield University lays out to Phil and Roger both the risks and gains from AI.
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Accusations of attempted genocide from one side of the current Middle East crisis, and furious claims of anti-semitism from the other, show how deeply perceptions of racism still inform global conflicts. But what causes racism? What is the basis of the fear and anger it creates? Has it always been part of human society? How do we deal with it in a world where borders signify less and less, and communities increasingly come from many diverse backgrounds? Phil and Roger get guidance from Professor Alastair Bonnett of Newcastle University, author of “Multiracism: Rethinking Racism in Global Context”
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It’s a dangerous moment in one of the world’s most volatile regions. How far will Israel go to avenge the brutal killings inflicted by Hamas? Will the slaughter of innocent Palestinian civilians change global sympathies? Will Israel get bogged down in a long bloody battle inside Gaza. And will Iran and Lebanon get dragged into a widening conflict that brings violence from angry Muslims onto the streets of Europe and the US? Michele Groppi of the Defence Studies Department at King’s College, London, tells Phil and Roger about what went wrong at the start of the latest violence, and what could happen next
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Labour has a real chance of forming the next government, but does it have the sense of mission, the “vision thing” to carry voters with it? Matthew Flinders, Professor of Politics at Sheffield University tells Phil and Roger that Keir Starmer is still on course to lose next year’s election, unless he and his party can uncork some of the spirit that brought Tony Blair into Number 10 in 1997
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Where are the Conservatives going? Into opposition next year, almost certainly. But what sort of party will it be? Are the Tories becoming a far-right populist fringe, wedded to harsh rhetoric on immigration, culture, crime, gender and Europe? Or will a heavy defeat at the ballot box force the most successful political organisation in Europe to move back toward the centre to rebuild its attraction to voters? Phil and Roger get the views of Dr Christopher Kirkland, senior lecturer in politics at York St John University.
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Should we be able to be anonymous online? If we all knew who we were, would the conversation be more civil? Would the bots and trolls be exposed for what they are? Or would it open vulnerable people to attack - dissidents pursued by hostile regimes? Would the free speech at the heart of the net disappear? Dr Catherine Flick, reader in Computing and Social Responsibility at De Montfort University tells Phil and Roger what works in trying to clean up the online world, and how hard it is to police especially with trans-national actors.
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After eighteen months of fighting in Europe’s biggest conflict since 1945, is there any sign of an end? Tens of thousands of lives lost and billions of dollars spent, but the frontlines have barely moved. The weather will shortly bring land warfare to a halt - when it resumes in the spring, will Ukraine’s new western weaponry deal a knockout blow to Russian forces? Or will patience run out among Kyiv’s allies and force a deal with Vladimir Putin? Christoph Bluth , professor of International Relations and Security at Bradford University sets out the prospects for Phil and Roger and the likely timescale
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Should the NHS be buying anti-obesity drugs? Should councils be subsidising fruit and vegetables? Or is it better to spend scarce resources on antibiotics and cancer medicines? How do we weigh up the best purchases to get the healthiest outcomes for all of us? With a health service in a deepening crisis of resources, Joan Costa-i-Font, Professor of Health Economics at the London School of Economics, lays out to Phil and Roger what we can afford to do, and what we can’t afford NOT to do, to keep Britain healthy
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Are museums showing their age? Displays of dusty objects, looted or stolen during the imperial past, now, it seems not even safe in their cases. Is it time to reconsider what our museums should hold? And how we represent our past - and the past of other cultures? Dan Hicks, Professor of Contemporary Archaeology at Oxford University and Curator of World Archaeology at the Pitt Rivers tells Phil and Roger that we don’t even know much of what our museums hold, and we need to rethink what we are doing with the collections.
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The 45th president of the United States will go on trial next March just as the campaign hots up to install the next chief executive of the world’s most powerful democracy. It will be the most turbulent election year since the civil war, with the prospect that Donald Trump could be competing from inside a prison cell. Joe Biden will be the oldest person ever to serve in the White House if he succeeds. And if he does, few think Trump supporters will accept the result. So what will happen? Thomas, Gift, associate professor in political science at University College London and founding director of the Centre on US Politics, guides Phil and Roger through the likely outcomes
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Where have they all gone? The UK’s economically active workforce has shrunk. More of us are staying at home - some from ill-health, some retired early, some have given up looking for employment. At the same time, businesses are complaining they can’t fill posts, and unemployment is at a record low. So wages have to rise to attract the few who might actually apply. What’s happening to the workers? Naomi Clayton, deputy director of research and development at the Learning and Work Institute explains to Roger and Phil how we got here, and what needs to be done to get Britain back to work.
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China is dealing with deflation and stagnation - the world’s second biggest economy has failed to bounce back out of Covid, and that will affect us all. So why is this happening, just as most other major economies are beginning to emerge from post-Covid inflation? Is it the iron control of the Communist Party on a capitalist system? Is it Chinese consumers failing to consume? And what happens when the state fails to deliver on the social contract with its people - that prosperity is the reward for staying out of politics? Kent Matthews, Professor of Banking and Finance at Cardiff Business School tells Phil and Roger what to expect as Beijing tries to get to grips with the problem
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Are there any Conservative MPs confident of keeping their seats in next year’s election? The awful poll numbers keep rolling in, along with gloomy economic headlines and a sense of a government in office, but not in power. Can the Tories pull out of their nosedive? Or is Europe’s most successful vote-winning political force doomed to a defeat as spectacular as the one they handed Labour back in 2019? Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary, University of London, outlines the Tories’ challenges to Phil and Roger, and how all this will shape the next decade of UK politics.
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Should a business be able to choose its customers? If a bank doesn’t support your politics, should they be able to de-bank you? Nigel Farage’s closed account has seen the resignations of the heads of NatWest and Coutts, but will it also see a change in the rules to prevent discrimination on grounds of political opinion? Dr Aine Clancy of Liverpool University tells Phil and Roger what the law says, and how far any company can or should refuse to do business with those it doesn’t like.
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Holiday islands burning, global temperature records smashed - are we fast reaching a point-of-no-return in the consequences of climate change? Is it still realistic to try to keep the world’s temperature increase to 1.5C? Or, as public opinion in some places shifts against curbing emissions from old cars, is the political will fading to make hard choices? Tim Lenton, founder of the Global Systems Institute and Chair in Climate Change and Earth System Science at the University of Exeter, tells Phil and Roger what’s still possible to curb the effects of global warming.
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Why is the UK trailing the rest of the developed economies when it comes to growth and the post-Covid recovery? Why is our inflation higher, our investment lower, and our prospects gloomier? Is it poor leadership, or just the nature of an economy too slow to adapt to the modern world? Or is it just Brexit? Simon French, managing editor, chief economist and head of research at Panmure Gordon, tells Phil and Roger where it has gone wrong for UK PLC, and what needs to happen to reverse that.
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The coup that wasn't. The mutiny that failed. What happened when the leader of the Wagner mercenary group attempted to march on Moscow? And what happens now? Is Vladimir Putin fatally weakened? Is the Ukraine war closer to its end? Vera Tolz-Zilintekevic, Professor of Russian Studies at Manchester University, takes Phil and Roger through some pretty alarming scenarios for the year ahead.
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Is our revenue system too taxing? Are the thousands of pages of rules and regulations just an invitation to fraud and expensive accountants - with low earners left to fall into the traps set by HMRC? Or do we need to be able to take into account all the subtle nuances of modern life with allowances and exemptions to ensure a fair and equitable system? Judith Freedman is the Pinsent Mason Professor of Taxation Law and Policy at Oxford University, and she tells Phil and Roger of the simplifications that could and should be done
Is there any honour in the honours system? Boris Johnson's resignation list has again shone an embarrassing light into how and who we reward for public service. Should relatives of the prime minister and useful political allies become sirs or dames? And worse - should they get seats in the House of Lords, giving them real legislative power? When they're people whose sole claim is that they put money into the coffers of political parties, doesn't that have the whiff of bribery and corruption? Or is this all a necessary nod to vanity and snobbery, that keeps the wheels of our system working, as it has done for centuries? Imperfect certainly, but functioning? Dr Sam Power of the University of Sussex tells Phil and Roger what's gone wrong with the gongs, and what can and should be fixed.
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Fast internet access is the key to progress, so why has the UK still got that annoying blue circle? Why have up to a million Britons logged off from their broadband over the pass year? Is there a migration to 4G on your mobile? Or is the whole system lagging badly, with outdated systems and cables? Roger and Phil are joined by Professor Peter Cochran, a technologist and futurist and formerly BT’s chief technology officer, to ry to solve the conundrum of keeping Britain reliably online
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As more and more people are diagnosed with conditions like Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder, or Asperger’s, are we seeing an epidemic of mental ill-health? Is modern life toxic for our minds? Or are we just recognising conditions that were always there? And is it good to put medical labels on what are just aspects of being human - eccentricity or sadness? Jane Caro of the Mental Health Foundation tells Phil and Roger how greater understanding and recognition of what people are feeling can improve happiness in society.
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Despite doom-laden predictions that the UK will be a foreign-investment vacuum post- Brexit, money is still flowing into the country. The question is, is it doing any good? The last quarter saw a rise in investment in the UK’s finance sector, which might create more jobs in the city but is it going much for the real economy, or the lives of people outside London? This week Phil and Roger talk to Martin Wolf, chief economics commentator at the FT and ask what does Britain need to do to attract the sort of money that will help the economy grow.
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Liars, cheats and charlatans - we don’t have a generally rosy view of our politicians. So how much should we expect from the people we choose to govern us? Should government ministers have to come up to higher standards than we expect of ourselves? Is the Ministerial Code of Conduct - drawn up and run by the prime minister - the best way to make sure of ethics and honesty at the heart of government? Dr Catherine Haddon of the Institute for Government leads Phil and Roger through the minefield of regulating the behaviour of those we elect.
This episode is supported by Wigmore Associates, who provide portfolio management services on both a discretionary and advisory basis, together with pension, tax planning and inheritance tax advice to Individuals, Trusts, Pension Schemes, Family Offices, and Charities.
Somewhere to call home - do you rent, own, or live with your parents? The choices are diminishing for the under 30s, and older people who own their houses are suddenly facing a massive uptick in mortgage rates. The UK has a housing crisis and it’s going to test whether a property-owning democracy is still the best model to follow. Is it a question of using tax and regulation to push house-builders and to straighten out the rental sector? Or something more fundamental? Mark Stephens, Professor of Land, Property and Urban Studies at Glasgow University, tells Phil and Roger this is a real crisis and needs real and urgent solutions.
This episode is supported by Wigmore Associates, who provide portfolio management services on both a discretionary and advisory basis, together with pension, tax planning and inheritance tax advice to Individuals, Trusts, Pension Schemes, Family Offices, and Charities.
Do we have the right to protest? What are we allowed to do, to show we don’t approve? And is it right to disrupt other people’s lives and businesses to make our point? The arrests during the coronation showed the new powers police have to deal with demonstrators, but are they too draconian, or just a reasonable response to the new disruptive ways protesters have found to draw our attention to their cause? David Mead, professor of human rights law at the University of East Anglia tells Phil and Roger what they now can and can’t do to make their point.
This episode is supported by Wigmore Associates, who provide portfolio management services on both a discretionary and advisory basis, together with pension, tax planning and inheritance tax advice to Individuals, Trusts, Pension Schemes, Family Offices, and Charities.
Singalonga Europe - a festival of colour and music that unites a continent and spreads colour and joy to a dull and damp May? Or an orgy of naff tunes, high camp and absurd self-regard that shows up all the bitterest national rivalries Europe has nurtured? Does it even matter? It does, says Dr Dean Vuletic, author of “Postwar Europe and the Eurovision Song Contest,” and he tells Phil and Roger it provides an invaluable insight into modern Europe’s cultural and political history.
This episode is supported by Wigmore Associates, who provide portfolio management services on both a discretionary and advisory basis, together with pension, tax planning and inheritance tax advice to Individuals, Trusts, Pension Schemes, Family Offices, and Charities.
What are the prospects for the man about to be crowned? As Charles formally receives the insignia of the monarch and the blessing of the church, how long can a thousand year-old principle of hereditary succession be sustained? Is Britain still not ready to elect the man or woman who is head of state? Or is continuity itself a measure of national maturity? And would we really prefer to have a ceremonial president who would likely be - on present form - a footballer or a reality TV star? Alice Hunt, associate professor of history at Southampton University, gives Phil and Roger guidance from the the time England did become a republic in 1649, and some thoughts about our monarchical future.
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What’s the problem with our water? Untreated sewage is pouring into our rivers and onto our beaches. Despite the wettest March for 40 years, a hosepipe ban has been imposed in Devon. Something is going badly wrong with the companies that run our privatised water system. Is it just a lack of investment? Dr Kevin Grecksch lectures in Water Science Policy and Management at Oxford University - he gives Phil and Roger the details on what has gone wrong and what needs to change.
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Bitcoin, dogecoin, etherium - cryptocurrencies are part of our world, and they seem to be a store of value, but are they actually WORTH anything? The price fluctuates wildly and there are plenty of stories of theft, fraud and criminality in crypto exchanges. They coins are largely unregulated and have no backing from states or central banks, so is their notional value a kind of mirage? Is it all a scam? Professor Brian Lucey of University College Dublin sets out the basis of blockchain and the cryptos based on it, and the likely future of this monetary innovation.
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How should Britain deal with migrants crossing the Channel in small boats? The government’s ideas include expulsion to Rwanda, and housing asylum seekers in barges moored off the Dorset coast. They have been accused both of failing to live up to promises to cut the numbers arriving on our shores, and also being cruel and vindictive towards those who are seeking safety or a better life. So is there a policy that is humane, effective, practicable and, at the same time, legal? Phil and Roger ask Madeleine Sumption, director of the Migration Observatory at Oxford University
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It's a quarter of a century since the Good Friday Accord was signed, but is Northern Ireland now at its most perilous moment since then? With the main unionist party refusing to go back to Stormont, there seems little chance of devolved government resuming, and tensions are building in a way that hasn't been seen in 25 years - the threat level level has been raised to "severe" and a senior policeman is still in hospital six weeks after being shot by dissident republicans. The post-Brexit border issue seems impossible to resolve without either a hard border between Belfast and Dublin, or the Windsor Framework arrangements that, in unionist eyes, damage the bond that keeps the province inside the UK. Dr Peter John McLoughlin, senior lecturer in politics and international relations at Queen's University, Belfast, takes Phil and Roger through the risks to peace and the prospects for Northern Ireland's future
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What is the Metaverse? Why are tech firms and big finance houses buying into it with billions of dollars? Will we all have to learn to live and play and bank in virtual worlds? Or is it all hype? And with the current concern about artificial intelligence, is it all just too dangerous? Phil and Roger try to get the answers to all this from Steve Benford - he’s the Dunford Professor of Computer Science at the University of Nottingham and cofounder of the Mixed Reality Laboratory
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How much interest you pay on your home loan is determined largely by the unelected representatives in the world’s central banks. This week the Bank of England took its turn in announcing rate hikes in their bid to keep prices under control. They also have a mandate to ensure stability in the banking sector. The way things are right now, you might question whether they’re up to either task. Phil and Roger ask Dr Supriya Kapoor (Assistant Professor in Finance at the Trinity Business School, Trinity College Dublin) whether central banks are pursuing the right approach, whether we have the right people in these jobs, and whether it makes sense to keep the functions of monetary policy (by the banks) and fiscal policy (by the government) separate, particularly at times like these.
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The chancellor has told us how he’s going to slice the national cake this year, but there are those who say he has done nothing to push back against the growing gap in British society - that those who have are getting more, and those who don’t are getting less. The wealth gap, one of the worst in Europe, has increased over the last 20 years, and many see the consequent divide in attitude, social values and politics, with a surge in extremist views, growing as well. Are we, then, increasingly, TWO nations? Despite that, Pat Thane, Professor of Contemporary History at King’s College London, and author of the book Divided Kingdom: A History of Britain from 1900 to the Present, tells Phil and Roger we may actually be moving closer now to a post-Brexit consensus on major national questions.
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In the 1930’s John Maynard Keynes predicted that, with automation and new ways of working, we’d all be working a 15 hour week. Many of us grew up being told that there would be more time for leisure. Yet, here we are, working as hard as ever. Except those who saw the pandemic as an opportunity to leave the workforce altogether. For many, we might be working harder, but spending more time working from home, without the drudgery of the daily commute. So, are we finding a new, more balanced way of working? How are companies adapting to this shift in behaviour? And are some of the fundamental issues of work, like bad management, ever going to shift. Phil and Roger have a barrage of questions for Clare Kelliher, Professor of Work and Organisation at Cranfield School of Management, Cranfield University, and author of several books on the subject, including ‘New Ways of Organising Work’ and ‘Flexible Working In Organisations’
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Hong Kong is re-emerging from almost two years of COVID isolation, but can it resume its place an Asia’s leading financial hub? Or has Beijing’s imposition of strict security laws made it little different from China’s other economic dynamos like Shanghai or Shenzhen? It’s taken a massive hit over the last year- GDP down by 3.5% - and suffered a brain-drain as some of its brightest and best have left for freer environments in the UK or Taiwan. Dr Yan-ho Lai of the Dickson Poon School of Law at King’s College London and a co-conveyor of the Hong Kong Studies Association gives Phil and Roger his view of the prospects of his home city 25 years after it was handed back to China.
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The earthquakes that rocked southern Turkey and northern Syria seemed to come from nowhere - an instant of catastrophic destruction that killed around 50,000 people, demolished hundreds of thousands of homes and left a legacy of loss and poverty that will last for generations.
But could it have been avoided? Could we, at least, have known it was coming and been prepared? Or do we just have to shrug and accept the risks of living in quake-prone areas?
Mark Allen, Professor of Earth Sciences at the University of Durham, talks to Phil and Roger about the challenges of earthquake forecasting and prediction, and the chances of science ever being able to provide accurate warnings in good time of what our planet may be about to do to us.
Is it a good idea for big areas of Britain to be returned to nature? The idea of re-wilding is spreading fast - that allowing some land to go back to its wild state is good for the environment, and works economically, too, in a country that has lost so much of its biodiversity and woodland. The case seems to be gaining support in government. But what about the need for food-production and housing? And do we really want to return to some kind of primeval Britain with wolves and lynxes roaming huge forests? Alastair Driver is director of ReWilding Britain, former Head of Conservation for the Environment Agency - he leads Phil and Roger through the case for letting and helping nature rebuild our countryside.
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Is it over?
It’s just three years since the global pandemic began to take hold, and now we’re back to a sort-of normal - few wear masks any more, and most have had vaccines and boosters. But people are still being infected and some are dying, while a few have long-term conditions that mean they have to keep isolated. And then there is long COVID, affecting millions with life-changing debilitation. So what’s the current status of this disease, and is it with us forever? Professor Paul Hunter of the University of East Anglia, one of the leading medical voices during the height of the pandemic, tells Phil and Roger where we now are with COVID-19
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Spring is coming to Ukraine along with the prospect of new offensives in the war that began almost a year ago. Kyiv is getting new weapons from the West, and Russia has hundreds of thousands of freshly-trained mobilised reservists as well as a new commander. But will the stalemate end? Will Ukraine be able to push Russia back nearer to its borders, or will Russia regain the initiative and march on Kyiv once more? Will Ukraine’s long night of horror and death come to an end anytime soon? Not very likely, Stefan Wolff, professor of International Security at the University of Birmingham, tells Phil and Roger - this, he says, is a war without an obvious conclusion.
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This week we learnt that the government racked up its highest December budget deficit on record. In fact, there have only been a few months which were higher, and all during the throws of the COVID pandemic. So, does the government need to cut back on spending and give the country another dose of austerity? Or can it keep spending. Modern Monetary Theorists say a government with its own sovereign currency can keep spending so long as there are resources that can be put to productive use. Are they right? Frances Coppola is a financial writer, who knows from the inside the workings of banks and governments. She says she is a 90% advocate of MMT. So, is it the right answer for Britain right now?
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Picket lines, placards and disruption - strikes have returned to British life and almost-forgotten trade unions are back in the headlines in a way they haven’t been since the 1970s. Membership is up - though still nothing like the levels when union leaders were regular visitors for beer and sandwiches in Number 10. But is the cost of living crisis empowering the unions again, to fight for those, especially in the public sector, who can barely afford the basics? Gregor Gall, Professor of Industrial Relations at Glasgow University and editor of the Scottish Left Review, tells Phil and Roger why organised labour is back on the scene of UK politics
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Is the party over? After 13 years in power, are the Conservatives looking at more than just electoral failure sometime between now and 2025? Has something fundamental shifted in UK politics post-Brexit and post-COVID? Are the Tories looking at an existential crisis as their support base shrinks or dies off? Paul Whiteley, Emeritus Professor at Essex University’s Department of Government has been crunching 70 years of polling data and he shares it with Phil and Roger. It won’t be happy listening for Number 10
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Whatever happened to cyber-wars? Wasn’t the future of fighting supposed to be keyboard warriors and hacks of government systems? Yet, in Europe’s first major war since 1945, we’re back to trenches and tanks, missiles and mines. So was all the talk of online offensives overblown? Is it still hardware and flying metal that rules the battlefield? Ciaran Martin was the first CEO of the UK’s National Cyber Security Centre, now professor at Oxford University’s Blavatnik School of government - he guides Phil and Roger through what computers can and can’t yet do in modern warfare.
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In a special New Year episode, Phil and Roger quiz Martin Raymond, co-founder of The Future Laboratory, about what 2023 holds for the UK and the world. The most likely tech developments, the next health emergency, what businesses will succeed or fail .....and will it, at least, be an improvement on 2022? The hopes and the fears, the risks and the rewards of the next 12 months, all laid out for your pleasure.
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So this is Christmas, and what have we done…… with the faith that is supposed to be the reason for all the presents and crackers and turkey? Fewer than half of us actually believe in Jesus and would call ourselves Christian. More than a third don’t adhere to any religion at all. So is the UK now “post-Christian”? And how should we adapt in a country that still, nominally, has a state church? Phil and Roger explore the issues with Abby Day, Professor of Race, Faith and Culture at Goldsmiths, University of London.
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The UK has a productivity problem. When it comes to how much output we each produce the UK is well behind our northern European counterparts, and its going from bad to worse. COVIDA hasn’t helped. According to the Office of National Statistics, public service productivity is 6.5% below the pre-coronavirus pandemic level.
Professor Philip McCann, Chair of Urban and Regional Economics at Alliance Manchester Business School at The University of Manchester, reckons productivity is a huge problem for the UK. On this week’s podcast he highlights why the UK is so different. And it’s not, as Liz Truss famously suggested, that British workers are amongst the “worst idlers in the world”. Prof McCann suggests its more to do with how we have structured our public administration.
Freedom of expression is supposed to be one of the most fundamental human rights, but don’t there have to be SOME limits? Especially on social media where unmediated, violent, threatening words or damaging lies can and do create real-world harm? Elon Musk’s takeover of Twitter has thrust all this into a big debate about what is censorship and who should be the censor. Rita Mota, Professor of Society, Politics and Sustainability at ESADE University Barcelona, tells Phil and Roger why she has co-authored an article claiming free-speech absolutism threatens human rights.
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Unwilling colony or vital part of the union? Scotland now knows it can't hold a new referendum unless the UK government says it can - the path to independence is blocked for the foreseeable future. So what happens next?
Will the SNP be able to press for a new vote by getting majority backing at the next election? Will the verdict of London judges provoke greater support for breaking away? Could a new Labour administration in Westminster be forced to cut a deal with the SNP? Or is the whole issue of independence now buried for a generation? Michael Keating, professor of Scottish Politics at the University of Aberdeen guides Phil and Roger through the likely outcomes
World leaders, journalists, climate campaigners – they all jetted in to the air conditioned hotels of Sharm El-Skeikh earlier this month for COP27, but was anything actually achieved. After 27 of these meetings to tackle climate change has anything actually been achieved? Are we all fiddling whilst the planet burns? Will politics and business interests determine our destiny rather than science, just as they did in the movie Don’t Look Up?
This week Phil and Roger talk to journalist Lucy Siegle, who writes and broadcasts regularly on environmental issues. Lucy is just back from COP27 and gives her thoughts on what’s been achieved this time around.
Northern Ireland is facing its biggest crisis since the Good Friday Accord ended the Troubles almost 25 years ago. The protocol that came out of Brexit puts the province outside the the EU but inside the customs union, so there has to be a border somewhere. But relations between nationalists and unionists have broken down over an arrangement that puts that customs border between the province and mainland Britain, and that means the Stormont government doesn’t function. So with more elections unlikely to break the deadlock, Katy Hayward, professor of political sociology at Queen’s University Belfast, tells Phil and Roger about the risks to peace between the communities and what happens next.
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How valuable is higher education? If your degree isn’t one that’s going to help you get a good job, is it worth the huge debts you’ll be saddled with when you leave? The government wants to phase out degrees that don’t improve students’ “earning potential” - so goodbye gender studies or surf science? And what about art and literature, history and pure sciences? Chris Millward, professor of practice in education policy at Birmingham University walks Phil and Roger through what’s valuable and what isn’t in higher education.
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In a couple of weeks Jeremy Hunt, this month’s Chancellor, will present his Autumn Budget, heavily overseen by Rishi Sunak, our latest Prime Minister. So what can we expect? The noises from Downing Street are suggesting we have to prepare for some bad news, with difficult choices supposedly being made about how to get the budget back on track. Does that mean more austerity? Higher Taxes? Or both? And who will feel the hurt the most.
Vicky Pryce, Chief Economic Adviser at the Centre for Economics and Business Research, suggests there’s a danger that the government will go too far, whilst hurting those who feel cuts the most. For example, increasing welfare payments in line with growth in wages rather than prices will save £13 billion per year, but who is paying the price for that? Certainly not those who got rich from asset investments when interest rates were low.
So just how does the government perform the magic balancing act of reducing debt, compensating for inflation and supporting energy costs, without slowing the economy to a trickle? Join Vicky with Roger and Phil, discussing what should be in the Hunt-Sunak budget.
A display of raw power at the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, as Xi Jinping has his predecessor dragged off the podium. So how much should we in the West be afraid of the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao? From the clothes we wear to the phones in our pockets, to the videos we post on TikTok, China is part of how we live our lives, so should we be concerned at the push for global dominance of the 21st century's new superpower? There's a move in Washington, London and Brussels to disengage, but is that even possible now, or are we already in too deep? George Magnus, research associate at Oxford University's China Centre, and at SOAS walks Phil and Roger through the risks and possibilities.
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Are we facing nuclear war? It seems extraordinary but many analysts and advisers in western capitals believe there’s a good chance Vladimir Putin could use a nuclear weapon to save his regime from defeat in Ukraine. 32 years after the Cold War ended we are back to contemplating nuclear war, and wondering how to avoid it, without rewarding Russian aggression or giving in to blackmail. This week Phil and Roger walk through the scenarios with Jeremy Shapiro, formerly of the US State Department, now director of research at the European Council on Foreign Relations - and consider the chances of avoiding Armageddon
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The thin blue line is getting thinner and less effective. When chief constables have to assure the public they WILL turn up for reported burglaries, something has gone badly wrong. Are the police in tune with the society they protect? Did something change when they were given huge new powers during COVID? Are they racist? Are they misogynist? Are they too busy taking the knee or monitoring online offensiveness to actually police real crime? Phil and Roger hear from Dr Rick Muir, director of the Police Foundation that what’s needed is more resources and a recognition that officers can only be a sticking-plaster on society’s deeper problems
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We’re a sick nation - and the prognosis for the NHS is not good. It’s showing all of its 75 years, as patients wait in ambulances outside A&E or struggle to speak to - much less see - their own GP. So what’s the remedy? Just more - more money, doctors, nurses, hospitals? Or better systems of provision? And how should we pay for it - could some of us pay when we see our doctor? Tim Gardner, senior policy fellow at the Health Foundation, tells Phil and Roger there need to be tough decisions about how much we value and are willing to pay for our health.
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Last week Kwasi Kwarteng delivered his ‘fiscal event’, unsupported by any analysis from the Office for Budget Responsibility. He said we wouldn’t apologise for focusing on economic growth. He’s also refused to apologise for the market response, which has seen the pound sink to a record low and the Bank of England forced to step in and buy-up bonds to stop the collapse of many pension funds, suffering from rapidly rising longer-end gilt yields.
Even if the approach was to work, is there any sense going for growth at a time when the central bank is trying to slow the economy down to subdue the rate of inflation? It’s a question Phil and Roger put to the FT’s Chief Economics Correspondent Martin Wolf.
As you’ll hear in this week’s Why Curve, it’s clear he has a great many concerns about Kwarteng’s approach to managing the economy, not least his disregard to public debt. Growth, he says, won’t be resolved by cutting taxes. And investors focus on economies that are stable; we haven’t seen any of that the last few days.
Burt what of those who say markets and commentators have over-reacted to Kwarteng’s budget. The Telegraph’s Ambrose Evans-Pritchard says all this conjecture is the “pathological catastrophism of the pro-Brussels commentariat.” Could he be talking about Martin?
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A weak Tory prime minister, a dire economic crisis, a government seemingly set on making the rich richer while an election looms - an open goal for Labour surely? What could possibly go wrong? But the mood among the party faithful as they meet in conference in Liverpool is anything but confident. Corbynism may be buried, but Keir Starmer lacks charisma, his team are not exactly household names, and can YOU name a single Labour policy? Phil and Roger talk to David Kogan, Labour historian and adviser, about whether, after 12 years in opposition, the party can revive and be fit enough to aim once again for government.
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The Cold War was supposed to be over twenty years ago, but are China and Russia now a new bloc of autocracy, posed against western democracies in competition for global dominance? And do they have a point - are states where electors don’t have to be appeased every four or five years, better able to plan and make difficult decisions? Do Brexit and the presidency of Donald Trump show up the weak points of liberal democracy? On this week’s episode Phil and Roger raise all this with Dr Natasha Kuhrt, senior lecturer in international peace and security at King’s College London, and ask if the current Cold War with Beijing and Moscow could eventually turn hot.
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Is our democracy broken? We have a new prime minister - but who elected her? When a few Conservative party members have the choice of who holds the top job in the country, has something gone wrong with the system? When the last holder of that job (also chosen by the Tory membership) leaves with the appointment of his choice of his friends and supporters to the House of Lords, does it smell a bit of cronyism? This week Phil and Roger ask Robert Hazell, professor of government and the constitution at University College London, if the whole system needs an overhaul, and whether it's time for the ancient network of practices and understandings to be formalised into a written constitution. Is it time to take back control.....of our democracy?
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Is the national broadcaster moving towards some kind of closedown? With the likely next prime minister challenging the BBC’s accuracy, and one of its most prominent former presenters questioning its impartiality, while the frozen licence fee and inflation mean it can do less and less, is there a better model of public service broadcasting? A century after its foundation, should the corporation cede the field to the newcomers - Netflix and Disney? Patrick Barwise, emeritus professor of management and marketing at London Business School and co-author of The War Against The BBC tells Phil and Roger why, despite its problems, the BBC remains a vital part of our national life and needs all of our support.
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The world knows we’ve got to break our addiction to fossil fuels, and we need to move to a future where we no long pollute our atmosphere. But how quickly can we reach this utopian future? How far are current worries about being able to afford to heat our homes going to delay Net Zero? Can we still enjoy the benefits of a growing economy without destroying the planet? Can we reach it quickly enough? Will we ever reach it? Phil Dobbie and Roger Hearing put all that to Professor Richard Black from the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit, and find a strange optimism - he says renewable energy is paving the way, not just because of our concern for the environment, but also because it’s the most cost effective solution
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UK inflation is now in double digits. We got there faster than expected and the Bank of England is likely to keep raising interest rates because they believe that’s the only way to contain prices. Not long ago the same bankers were arguing that there was no need for a change in their monetary policy because the problem was a transitory lack of supply. That’s still the case, of course, so why do they think hiking rates will make much difference now? This week Phil and Roger talk through the build-up to Britain’s cost of living crisis, and ask why is so much reliance being placed on the Bank of England to fix the problem.
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As prices rise everywhere, and poverty looms for many, whatever happened to the levelling-up that was supposed to equalise the more-deprived parts of Britain with the wealthy southeast? Almost 3 years after Boris Johnson won a stonking majority, winning-over former Labour seats in the “Red Wall”, have those areas seen any improvement in health, transport, skills-training and opportunities? There IS a plan - a white paper launched in February - but, with one of the candidates to be the next prime minister openly talking of channelling funds back to the southeast, is there any chance the plan will be more than just hot air? Paul Swinney, director of policy and research at Centre For Cities, guides Phil and Roger around what could be done to level up Britain and the prospects of it actually happening.
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Winter is coming, and Europe is looking at a chilly one. Germans are told – take a cold shower or turn down the thermostat and use 15% less gas. And the European Commission is looking at EU-wide measures to deal with what could be a major crisis. It’s all because Russia is tightening the valves on the gas pipeline into the EU. Moscow says it’s technical problems but few doubt it’s pushback for the sanctions imposed on Russia over the Ukraine invasion. Germany is especially reliant on Russian gas, but much of Europe is scurrying around to find alternative energy sources before winter arrives. How long will public sympathy for Ukraine last when the heating goes off? Will EU leaders face pressure from frozen pensioners to, maybe, compromise a little with Putin? Phil and Roger read the meters with Daniel Gros, Director of the Centre for European Policy Studies - and find out why he thinks Europe WILL get by without freezing
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When did flying become such a grim experience? Endless queues. Cancelled flights. Airport chaos. And stacked like sardines when you do eventually get aboard. With Heathrow capping the number of daily passengers and tickets shooting up in price, plus the harm to the environment, is it time to disembark from flying? At the same time, with huge waits at Dover and Folkestone to get across the Channel by train or boat, do holidaymakers really have a choice? Phil and Roger put all this to independent aviation analyst Alex Macharos, who has the latest industry assessments of the future of flying and whether the changes they’re making post-Covid will keep our holiday plans in the air and give airlines and airports a safe landing.
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The Tory party leadership challenge is down to two players – Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss. Sunak wants to keep taxes where they are, preaching fiscal conservatism, and fearing releasing more money into people’s pockets will only add to inflation, which is already at 9.4 percent. Truss wants to help people navigate the cost-of-living crisis, by reversing the recent hikes in national insurance. So which approach is right in the current economic climate? It’s a question Phil and Roger put to Simon French, Chief Economist at Panmure Gordon & Co. He’s no stranger to the workings of government, after a dozen years at the Department of Work and Pensions and The Cabinet Office. Is he prepared to tell us who he’d like to see inside Number 10?
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Who are the least trusted people in society? Journalists? Car-sellers? Bankers?
Nope. Politicians are top of the list. And you only have to look at the headlines to see why: Partygate here, Donald Trump’s false election fraud claims in the US, the claims of WMD before the Iraq war in 2003, and of course the original “gate” – Watergate. But surely politicians have ALWAYS lied? Isn’t it just what happens when you have to persuade people to vote for you? Or have Trump and Johnson taken us into a new era of almost instinctive dishonesty? Is there grave danger in assuming our leaders are lying to us? Does it undermine democracy? Phil and Roger hear from barrister Julian Burnside how a big lie about migrants won an Australian election in 2002, from former US Congressman John Leboutillier on how dishonesty has poisoned political discourse in America, and from Professor Alan Renwick of UCL’s Constitution Unit on the risks to the UK’s democracy from the death of trust
The most toxic issue of our times – why have trans rights become such a bitter question in politics, sport, and even bathrooms? Some feminists say allowing those born biologically male to identify and be treated as female risks rolling back hard-won rights for women. Trans activists say it is a matter of human rights, and another aspect of the battle for recognition and acceptance already largely won by gay men, bisexuals, and lesbians. It’s a debate that has descended into name-calling, cancelling and threats of violence, but Phil and Roger nevertheless attempt to see if there’s a way, at least, to define the terms - what exactly do we mean by “sex” and “gender”? – and explore why there is so much anger on both sides. We get the views of the journalist Jo Bartosch who has written widely, and controversially, about the subject. Two middle-aged white men plunge into one of the most acrimonious culture battles of the 21st century. What could possibly go wrong?
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No longer “brain-dead”? NATO leaders have been meeting in Madrid at one of the most important - and dangerous - points in the alliance’s 70-year history. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has given NATO a new purpose, and new members, after it seemed to lose its way in the post-Cold War era. But can NATO stay united? What if Vladimir Putin offers a ceasefire that lets him keep his conquests? Will NATO members give Ukraine enough of the right weapons to hold the line against Moscow’s aggression? And what are the risks that NATO could be dragged into fighting directly with Russia. - the war it was set up to prevent? Today Phil and Roger hear from the Telegraph’s Defence and Security Editor Dominic Nicholls on the risks and likely outcomes of a confrontation that will determine the future of Europe
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The largest rail strike in 30 years is crippling the train network, causing disruption for millions as tens of thousands of staff walk out, demanding more money and better conditions. But is this a wider issue than a simple industrial dispute? After all, even in normal times we rarely stop moaning about late-running and ticket prices, and comparisons with trains in Germany and France leave us looking as if we’ve been backed into a siding. Today Phil and Roger hear from Christian Wolmar, whose new book 'British Rail' makes the case for re-nationalisation of the nation’s railways. What’s the destination for Britain’s trains? How do we get there? And will we arrive in time to make us all revert to public transport, as the risks of climate change mean we all need to park our cars and climb aboard a train?
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Today the Bank of England lifted interest rates again, for the fifth time in a row. Earlier this week interest rates in the US were raised by 0.75%, with much to follow. The reason for the hikes? It’s because inflation is shooting up, largely because of supply chain problems resulting from the war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China. We’re also seeing a shortage of people to fill jobs, giving more people the opportunity to push for higher wages. How will raising interest rates fix those problems? Today Phil and Roger get Kallum Pickering, Senior Economist at Berenberg Bank in London, to explain how he sees monetary policy working in today’s unique set of circumstances. Is a recession an inevitable consequence? In fact, is it necessary if we are to curb inflation? To paraphrase Paul Keating, the Australian Prime Minister in the late nineties, is this going to be the recession we have to have?
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The first batch of asylum seekers to be sent to Rwanda are due to fly out next Tuesday. There are likely to be delays, possibly indefinitely, as lawyers challenge the legality of the government’s plans to send those who arrive by boat offshore to Rwanda, with no right to claim asylum in the UK. In this first edition of ‘The Why? Curve’ Roger Hearing says the question of legality is one issue – there’s also the question of whether it’s ethical, and whether it’ll work. Phil Dobbie says the Australian experience of offshoring hasn’t been the success many are suggesting, whilst Mr Alp Mehmet, chair of Migration Watch UK, says something has to be done and it’s one part of a larger package of measures needed to dissuade people from risking their lives crossing the channel from France. Perhaps the ultimate question is, if it isn’t going to work, if if it isn’t going to stop people smugglers ferrying asylum seekers across the Channel, why do it?
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