Payne Points of Wealth: Recent Episodes
Ryan Payne
Welcome to the Payne Points of Wealth: The podcast that addresses all the pain points that come with creating your wealth, growing your wealth, and sustaining your wealth. Hosted by the Family Wealth Experts of Payne Capital Management, Bob, Ryan & Chris Payne. On a weekly basis, they deliver timely strategies and solutions for the pain points that come with building, preserving and managing your wealth.
Is the market falling apart—or is money simply rotating?
In this episode of Payne Points of Wealth, Bob, Ryan, Chris, and Courtney explain why semiconductor stocks and the Magnificent Seven are struggling while energy, commodities, value stocks, REITs, international stocks, and emerging markets continue to perform.
The team discusses why diversification is winning in 2026, whether Wall Street’s AI earnings expectations have become too optimistic, and why the biggest long-term AI winners may be companies outside the technology sector.
They also examine:
• Whether the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates
• How oil prices, tariffs, and reshoring could affect inflation
• Why companies are rehiring workers after AI-related layoffs
• How baby boomer wealth is supporting consumer spending and housing
• Where investors may find growth beyond the Magnificent Seven
The key takeaway: money is not necessarily leaving the market. It may be rotating into overlooked sectors and asset classes—and investors who stay diversified could be better positioned for what comes next.
The AI trade just suffered a major semiconductor sell-off—but is this the beginning of the end, or a buying opportunity inside a long-term bull market?
In this episode of Payne Points of Wealth with Brooks Cutright, Portfolio Manager at Hedgeye Asset Management, we uncover the hidden forces driving Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Micron, SanDisk and other major technology stocks. The recent volatility may have less to do with collapsing AI demand and more to do with index rebalancing, ETF flows, and hedge funds positioning around hundreds of billions of dollars in predictable trades.
But the bigger question is impossible to ignore:
Will the trillions being spent on artificial intelligence ever pay for themselves?
Big Tech companies are pouring massive amounts of capital into AI chips, data centers and computing infrastructure—even as questions grow about adoption, monetization and return on investment. If computing power becomes a low-margin commodity, today’s biggest AI spenders may not become tomorrow’s biggest winners.
In this episode:
• What really caused the semiconductor stock sell-off
• How index rebalancing forces funds to sell mega-cap tech
• How hedge funds profit from predictable market flows
• Whether Nvidia and the AI trade are entering bubble territory
• Why hyperscalers may struggle to monetize AI spending
• The “picks and shovels” companies making money from the AI arms race
• Why private credit could be hiding the market’s biggest leverage risk
• How to find companies before they enter the S&P 500
• Why power producers and infrastructure stocks may offer a better AI opportunity than semiconductor stocks
The ultimate AI winners may not be the companies spending the most money. They may be the businesses using AI to lower costs, improve productivity and expand profit margins.
If you’ve saved more than $1 million for retirement, Payne Capital Management will run a complimentary Total Financial Master Plan covering your investments, retirement income, diversification, fees and tax strategy.
The headlines say one thing. The market is saying something very different. In this episode of Payne Points of Wealth, Bob, Ryan, Chris, and Courtney break down why investors may be missing some of the strongest opportunities in the market right now. While everyone is focused on AI, crypto, and the latest scary headlines, major gains are quietly happening in sectors and companies hiding in plain sight. From Johnson & Johnson’s surprising 12-month rally to strength in small caps, energy, commodities, financials, health care, European markets, and transportation stocks, the team explains why this bull market may be broader than most investors realize. They also discuss why consumer spending remains strong despite negative sentiment, how falling oil prices could act like a tax cut, why money market investors may be waiting too long, and how the AI boom is spreading far beyond Big Tech into energy, materials, infrastructure, and finance. If your portfolio is sitting in cash or overly concentrated in the headline names, this conversation is a reminder: some of the best-performing investments are often the ones nobody is talking about. Topics covered:
- Why the market keeps hitting record highs despite bad news
- The gap between consumer sentiment and consumer spending
- High-performing sectors hiding outside the AI trade
- Johnson & Johnson, small caps, transports, and dividend stocks
- Why money markets may become a trap if rates fall
- How AI is benefiting energy, materials, financials, and infrastructure
- Why the broader U.S. economy may be stronger than the headlines suggest
When we sat down with Paul Andre Huet, CEO of America’s Gold and Silver, for our latest Payne Points of Wealth episode, one theme became clear:
The demand story for silver is evolving and expanding.
Let’s break it down in simple terms.
- Electrification of the Economy
Silver is one of the best electrical conductors in the world.
That makes it critical for:
- electric vehicles
- charging infrastructure
- transmission systems
As more of the global economy moves from fossil fuels to electricity, the need for efficient conductive materials rises, and silver plays a central role.
- Electronics & Connectivity
Virtually every modern electronic device contains silver:
- smartphones
- laptops
- semiconductors
- circuit boards
As the world becomes more connected, the baseline demand here isn’t shrinking, it’s steadily expanding.
- Solar Energy
Solar panels use silver in their photovoltaic cells.
Every installation: from residential rooftops to utility-scale solar farms requires it.
As countries continue:
- reducing carbon emissions
- investing in renewable energy
- building out grid capacity
Silver demand increases alongside that transition.
- Automotive (Beyond EVs)
Even traditional vehicles rely on silver in:
- electronics
- safety systems
- sensors
Modern cars, especially higher-end models are increasingly electronic systems on wheels.
The Supply Reality
While use cases are expanding, supply isn’t as flexible.
- Many silver mines don’t produce silver as their primary output
- Production is often tied to other metals like copper or lead
- Opening new mines takes years, often a decade or more
This creates a dynamic where:
- demand can rise quickly
- supply responds slowly
That imbalance tends to matter over time.
Where Investors Often Get It Wrong
Investors tend to focus on what’s obvious.
Today, that means:
- The Magnificent Seven: Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Tesla
- Widely discussed semiconductor stocks
- Big IPOs like SpaceX, OpenAI & Anthropic
But in markets, leadership rotates.
Yesterday’s winners aren’t usually tomorrow’s leaders.
Most of the best opportunities don’t come from chasing what’s already worked, but where the underlying drivers are changing.
Silver may be one of those areas.
Not because of a single headline.
But because of a broad, overlapping set of use cases that continue to grow.
A Financial Planning Perspective
Now, this is where discipline becomes important.
A compelling story does not automatically mean it should be in a portfolio.
When we think about building a portfolio, we’re NOT asking: “Is this interesting?”
We’re asking:
- Do I have all my bases covered when building a diversified allocation?
- If commodities like silver rise, does my portfolio benefit?
- How can owning different asset classes in my portfolio reduce volatility?
- Does my portfolio align with my long-term financial goals?
Because a stand-alone commodity like silver can:
- be cyclical
- experience sharp price swings
- move on sentiment as much as fundamentals
Instead, owing a diversified basket of commodities that includes silver, can potentially lower overall portfolio risk, not increase it
The Bigger Takeaway
One of the most valuable insights from our conversation wasn’t about predicting silver prices.
It was about something more fundamental:
where demand is quietly growing in the real economy.
We’re seeing:
- more electrification
- more energy transformation
- more connectivity
- more industrial complexity
And silver sits at the intersection of all of it.
Final Thought
Over the long term, markets rarely reward investors for buying what’s hot today, they reward allocating capital to sectors and asset classes before they become widely popular among investors.
Right now, silver is becoming more embedded in how the world operates:
- how we produce energy
- how we move
- how we communicate
- how we build
That doesn’t mean it’s definitely going higher.
And it doesn’t replace the need for a diversified, disciplined plan.
But it does mean it’s worth paying attention to.
If you haven’t yet, we encourage you to listen to Episode 245 of Payne Points of Wealth, it’s a great discussion on how evolving real-world demand, operational execution, and long-term investing intersect.
Everyone is talking about artificial intelligence right now.
But almost no one is asking the most important question:
Where is all the power going to come from?
AI data centers are incredibly energy-intensive. The infrastructure being built to support this technology is going to require massive, reliable, and uninterrupted electricity.
And that brings us to a surprising conclusion…
Nuclear energy is quietly becoming one of the most important investment themes of the next decade.
Over the last few weeks, we had the chance to sit down with James Walker, CEO of Nano Nuclear Energy (NASDAQ: NNE), and one thing became very clear:
The nuclear story isn’t just about AI.
It’s much bigger than that.
In fact, the original opportunity had nothing to do with AI at all.
It started with a simple observation:
Money was flowing out of wind and solar, but global demand for power kept rising.
Before AI, before data centers, before the hype—there was already a massive gap forming between energy supply and real-world demand.
And nuclear sits in a unique position.
It produces enormous amounts of power, runs for years without interruption, and, despite popular belief, has one of the best safety records of any energy source on a “deaths per unit of energy” basis.
That’s not an opinion, that’s just math.
But here’s where it gets interesting from an investment standpoint.
Most people think about nuclear as these massive, one-off power plants that take a decade to build.
That’s the old model.
The new model looks very different.
Instead of one giant reactor, companies like Nano Nuclear are focused on small, modular reactors, essentially portable power plants that can be deployed almost anywhere.
And that changes everything.
Because now the opportunity isn’t just powering large cities or feeding into traditional power grids.
It’s about going places where energy has never been reliable or cost-effective before.
Think:
- Remote communities in Canada or Africa running on expensive diesel
- Island economies in Southeast Asia importing fuel daily
- Industrial sites without access to consistent power
- Data centers that can’t afford downtime
These are markets measured in gigawatts of unmet demand.
And the economics are compelling.
Diesel is not only expensive, it’s unreliable. Fuel has to be shipped in constantly, and disruptions are common.
A small nuclear system, on the other hand, can run for years once installed.
This doesn’t just lower costs—it creates something far more valuable:
Energy independence.
From a financial planning perspective, this is where the story connects directly to your portfolio.
We are entering a period where global infrastructure is being rebuilt in real time.
- Electrification is accelerating
- AI is increasing demand exponentially
- Emerging markets are still underpowered
That combination creates long-duration investment opportunities.
But it also creates risk.
Because these types of businesses don’t follow traditional timelines.
They require:
- Large upfront capital
- Long development cycles
- Regulatory approvals before revenue scales
Which means the path won’t be linear.
This is why we always come back to the same principle:
You don’t bet the farm on a single idea (aka a single stock), but you don’t ignore transformational trends either.
Nuclear falls squarely into that category.
It’s not a short-term trade.
It’s a potential secular tailwind that could play out over decades.
Another key insight that came out of our conversation:
The biggest opportunity may not even be AI.
It may be emerging markets.
There are hundreds of millions of people globally who still lack access to reliable energy.
Without power, there is no productivity.
Without productivity, there is no economic growth.
Nuclear—specifically smaller, scalable systems—has the potential to unlock that trapped economic capacity.
And when that happens, entire regions move up the economic ladder.
So what does this mean for investors today?
It means you should start thinking differently about where future growth will come from.
The next decade won’t just be about semiconductors and compute.
It will also be about the hard assets that make the AI revolution possible:
- Energy
- Commodities
- Infrastructure
- Emerging Markets
These are all themes we hold in our current investment models.
The bottom line is simple.
We are at the early stages of an energy transformation that most investors are underestimating.
Nuclear is no longer just a legacy power source.
It’s becoming a solution to some of the biggest constraints in the global economy.
And whether it’s AI, industrial demand, or emerging markets…
All of it comes back to one thing: power.
There’s a massive story unfolding right now that almost nobody is talking about, and it has nothing to do with AI stocks, semiconductors, or the Magnificent 7. It’s about the raw materials underneath everything. In our latest episode of Payne Points of Wealth, I sat down with Gary Evans, CEO of United States Antimony Corporation (NYSE: UAMY) and what he laid out feels like a throwback to the early days of the shale revolution… but this time, it’s critical minerals. And the numbers are almost hard to believe. Gary walks through how his company acquired a tungsten asset for roughly $5 million… that today could be worth over $9 billion based on current resource estimates and pricing. That’s not a typo. What makes the story even more compelling isn’t just the valuation, it’s the timeline. This isn’t a “maybe in 10 years” type of project. He believes it could be generating cash flow within the next 12–18 months. At a time when investors are focused almost exclusively on AI, this is a reminder that there’s an entire layer of the global economy that actually enables that growth. Because without critical minerals like antimony and tungsten… AI infrastructure doesn’t get built. The Bigger Story: A Supply Chain Reset Right now, China dominates roughly 90% of the world’s refining capacity for critical minerals. That’s not just an economic issue; it’s a national security issue. And the U.S. government knows it. Gary’s company recently secured a $240 million government contract and is rapidly expanding its domestic refining capabilities in Montana. The goal? Rebuild supply chains that have been hollowed out for decades. What’s striking is the speed. The U.S. mining industry has been dormant for 20–30 years, and yet companies like Gary’s are trying to compress what historically took decades into just a couple of years. By 2027–2028, he believes his company alone could supply up to 50% of the U.S. antimony market. If that happens, it will represent a dramatic shift away from foreign dependence and a massive tailwind for the companies positioned correctly. Not Just a Mining Story One of the most interesting parts of our conversation was how technology is starting to reshape even the most “old economy” industries. Gary is now using AI to analyze decades worth of geological data—compressing what used to take years of exploration into a matter of weeks. Think about that for a second. AI isn’t just driving the companies at the top of the market, it’s unlocking value in industries most investors have completely ignored. And in Gary’s words, it’s turning assets that are effectively worth zero on the balance sheet into something potentially worth millions. What This Means for Investors We spend a lot of time talking about diversification, and moments like this are a great reminder of what that really means. It’s not just owning more stocks. It’s understanding where the next wave of opportunity might come from and more importantly, where the market isn’t looking right now. Because while everyone is focused on the software layer of the economy… There is an entire hard asset, supply chain, and industrial renaissance happening underneath the surface. And it’s moving fast. If you want to better understand one of the most overlooked opportunities in today’s market—and how it connects to everything from national security to AI infrastructure, I highly recommend listening to this conversation.
What does it really take to rise from humble beginnings to representing some of the wealthiest buyers and sellers in the world?
In Episode 242 of Payne Points of Wealth, Ryan and Chris sit down with Noble Black, one of the nation’s top real estate professionals as recognized by The Wall Street Journal, to unpack his journey from small-town Mississippi to dominating New York City’s ultra-luxury real estate market.
Noble shares:
- How his upbringing shaped his perspective on money, success, and happiness
- The bold career pivot from corporate law to high-stakes real estate
- What truly separates top performers in a brutally competitive industry
- The psychology of working with ultra-high-net-worth clients
- Why listening—not selling—is the ultimate competitive advantage
- The truth about NYC real estate vs. the media narrative
- The hidden forces driving prices higher (despite rising rates)
- How politics, taxes, and supply shortages could shape the future of the market
Plus, Noble pulls back the curtain on:
- The surprising habits of billionaires
- What luxury buyers actually value (hint: not always what you think)
- Why reality TV has distorted the real estate profession
This is a masterclass in sales, strategy, and understanding human behavior at the highest levels.
In Episode 241 of Payne Points of Wealth, Ryan, Chris, and Bob Payne sit down with Ashley Davis, partner at S‑3 Group and former White House insider, to unpack a remarkable career at the highest levels of government.
Ashley shares how she went from a young staffer to employee #1 of the White House Office of Homeland Security in the wake of 9/11, offering a firsthand account of that pivotal day, the chaos that followed, and the creation of one of the most important agencies in modern U.S. history.
From the inner workings of the West Wing to today’s political climate, Ashley delivers candid insights on leadership, policy, polarization, and what it really takes to navigate Washington. This is a powerful conversation about resilience, decision-making under pressure, and the lessons that still apply far beyond politics.
What do discipline, delayed gratification, and a few well-worn undershirts have to do with success?
This week on Payne Points of Wealth, Ryan and Chris Payne sit down with Todd Piro, co-host of FOX & Friends First, for a real conversation about his journey growing up in New Jersey to national television.
Todd shares how his upbringing shaped his mindset around money and life, growing up in a household that valued function over flash. His parents instilled a simple but powerful philosophy: buy things for a purpose, not for appearances. It’s a mindset Todd still lives by today (yes, right down to hanging onto the same undershirts for years).
But Todd’s perspective goes beyond money. He reflects on one of his core beliefs: treating everyone equally, regardless of title or position. Whether it’s someone behind the scenes or at the top of the organization, Todd credits this approach as a guiding principle in both his career and personal life.
The conversation traces Todd’s impressive path:
- High school valedictorian
- Dartmouth College
- Law school
- A leap into uncertainty as a local TV reporter in California
- And ultimately, landing on one of the biggest stages in media as a FOX News anchor
Along the way, Ryan, Chris, and Todd dive into:
- How early financial habits shape long-term success
- The difference between looking wealthy vs. building wealth
- The advantages of discipline and consistency
- Having the courage to take risks and bet on your future
This episode is packed with insights on resilience, humility, and staying grounded, even when your career takes off!
If you’ve ever wondered what it really takes to go from ordinary beginnings to extraordinary success, without losing your values, this is a conversation you won’t want to miss.
What if the next global power struggle isn’t about oil—but about the elements inside your smartphone, electric vehicle, and AI infrastructure?
In this episode, we sit down with Barbara Humpton, CEO of USA Rare Earth, former CEO of Siemens USA, to break down one of the most overlooked—and critical—battles shaping the global economy.
We dive into:
- Why rare earth elements are the backbone of AI, clean energy, and defense
- How China came to dominate the supply chain—and why the U.S. is scrambling to catch up
- The massive push to rebuild domestic production, including a $1.6B U.S. government investment
- What “super magnets” are—and why they power everything from EVs to jet engines
- How USA Rare Earth plans to go from startup to strategic powerhouse by 2028
- Why this is one of the most bipartisan—and urgent—issues in Washington today
Barbara also shares her personal journey from leading global industrial giants to tackling what she calls “the business issue of our moment.”
Bottom line: This isn’t just a mining story, it’s a national security story, an AI story, and a once-in-a-generation investment theme.
In this episode of Payne Points of Wealth, we sit down with veteran journalist Justin Baer, Deputy Markets Editor for The Wall Street Journal and author of the new book House of Fidelity: The Rise of the Johnson Dynasty and the Company That Changed American Investing.
Justin takes us deep inside the remarkable, largely private story of Fidelity Investments — from its origins in 1940s Boston to becoming a financial giant serving nearly one in five American adults. We explore the Johnson family’s three‑generation leadership, the cultural tension between active stock pickers and passive investing, and how Fidelity quietly reinvented itself through retirement plans, brokerage platforms, and advisor custody while the rest of Wall Street was focused elsewhere.
We discuss:
- Why Fidelity missed (and later adapted to) the indexing and ETF revolutions
- How the 401(k), brokerage, and custody businesses became Fidelity’s true growth engines
- The contrasting leadership styles of Ted Johnson, Ned Johnson, and Abigail Johnson
- Cultural clashes, succession battles, and pivotal moments inside a private financial empire
- What Fidelity’s story reveals about family businesses, long‑term thinking, and organic growth
This conversation is part financial history, part business strategy, and part leadership study, essential listening for investors, advisors, and anyone interested in how American investing really evolved.
Plus: Justin shares the album that changed his worldview — and why Talking Heads still matter.
Oil headlines are everywhere, geopolitical tensions are rising, and yet markets keep grinding higher. So, what’s really going on?
In this episode of Payne Points of Wealth, Ryan, Bob, and Chris unpack why oil prices are falling even as global conflict dominates the news and what markets are signaling beneath the surface. From the resilience of the bull market to why earnings growth and productivity matter more than headlines, the team explains why short‑term volatility doesn’t change long‑term opportunity. They also discuss the real risk investors face today: sitting in cash and missing a potential melt‑up.
The episode wraps with an old‑school Payne Capital Financial Autopsy, breaking down a real retirement case involving a $7 million portfolio that was taking far more risk than necessary. The conversation highlights common mistakes pre‑retirees make—overconcentration in growth stocks, chasing past winners, and misunderstanding income needs—and how a properly structured portfolio can generate reliable income while reducing downside risk.
Key topics covered:
- Why markets often look through geopolitical crises
- What falling oil futures are telling investors
- The danger of staying defensive in a strong bull market
- Cash vs. inflation: the real long‑term risk
- How to reposition a retirement portfolio for income and stability
- Why diversification and maturity‑dated bonds matter in retirement
Bottom line: You don’t need to take outsized risk to win—but you do need to stay invested. As always, scared money never wins.
Markets are on edge. Oil has surged past $110 a barrel, geopolitical tensions are escalating, and investors are asking the same question: Is this the start of something bigger—and should I change my portfolio?
In this episode of Payne Points of Wealth, Bob, Ryan, and Chris Payne break down what’s actually happening beneath the headlines. While the media focuses on fear and conflict, the market is quietly sending a very different message.
You’ll hear why:
- The so‑called “Magnificent Seven” may have become the Lag‑7
- Capital is rotating—not fleeing—into energy, industrials, materials, and dividend‑paying stocks
- AI may be benefiting everyone except the AI stocks themselves
- Economic data remains surprisingly resilient despite war and higher oil prices
- Yield, diversification, and income matter more than chasing the next hot trade
- Market timing, overconcentration, and media-driven investing can quietly sabotage long‑term plans
The conversation also tackles real client concerns—volatility, recession fears, portfolio drawdowns—and explains why perspective, planning, and staying invested matter far more than reacting to headlines.
If you’re wondering how to navigate uncertainty, protect your wealth, and avoid confusing a bull market with brilliance, this episode is a must-listen.
The last two weeks on Wall Street have been anything but quiet. Oil prices have swung wildly, headlines are dominated by conflict in the Middle East, and cracks are starting to show in parts of the private credit market that were once sold as “safe” alternatives.
In this episode, Ryan, Bob, and Chris break down why—despite geopolitical turmoil—stocks haven’t sold off the way many expected. They dig into what falling oil prices are really telling us, why markets often look past fear-filled headlines, and how earnings, productivity, and profit margins continue to paint a surprisingly bullish picture.
The conversation then turns to a growing issue investors can’t ignore, private credit funds. With some funds gating withdrawals and others quietly repricing assets, the team explains why high yields often come with hidden risks, why illiquidity is especially dangerous for retail investors, and how Wall Street has a long history of re-packaging the same risky ideas under new labels.
They also revisit a core principle of long‑term investing—simple, low‑cost hedges often work better than complex, expensive “exclusive” products—and why protecting capital matters more than chasing whatever looks best in the moment.
If you’re wondering how to stay disciplined during volatility, what really matters when markets get noisy, and why boring portfolios often outperform flashy ones, this episode is for you.
The World Feels Like It’s on Fire… So Why Is the Market Only Down 1%? In this episode of the Payne Points of Wealth, Bob, Ryan and Chris have a wide-ranging, fast‑paced conversation on what really matters when markets get rattled.
With geopolitical tensions flaring in Iran, markets briefly sold off—everything except the U.S. dollar and oil. Yet despite the ominous headlines, the S&P 500 only dipped about 1%. So what’s the market actually telling us? Are we on the brink of a larger conflict, or is this another reminder that fear often speaks louder than fundamentals?
The team digs into why trying to time the market by running to cash feels smart—but usually backfires in practice. They unpack why markets tend to “settle up, not settle down,” and why investors often regret being out of the market far more than being temporarily uncomfortable in it.
Bob brings historical perspective, explaining why markets often bottom on bad news, not good news, and why some of the best long-term buying opportunities are born during periods of maximum uncertainty. The conversation also highlights the dangers of overconfidence, overconcentration, and mistaking headlines for signals.
Bob, Ryan & Chris also address oil prices, inflation, and global growth—exploring how higher energy prices could be a headwind or a surprising long-term tailwind, depending on how global supply and geopolitics evolve. The group also explains what bond markets and earnings data are quietly signaling beneath the noise.
Finally, Bob, Ryan and Chris tackle one of the biggest modern worries: artificial intelligence. Is AI going to replace jobs, crush the labor market, and make human advisors obsolete? Or is it simply the latest productivity tool in a long line of innovations that ultimately fuel growth? (Spoiler: human behavior still matters—a lot.)
As always, the discussion blends market insight, real-world investing wisdom, and plenty of humor—proving once again that successful investing isn’t about predicting the next crisis, but preparing for whatever comes next.
Key takeaways:
- Why short-term market drops don’t equal long-term danger
- The real cost of going to cash during uncertainty
- How diversification actually works when you need it most
- What earnings, bonds, and oil prices are signaling right now
- Why AI may boost productivity—but won’t fix investor psychology
If you’re feeling uneasy about the headlines, this episode is a timely reminder to stay rational, stay diversified, and stay invested!
In this wide-ranging and thought-provoking episode of Payne Points of Wealth, Bob, Ryan & Chris Payne sit down with legendary small-cap value investor Bob Killen, who brings more than 60 years of market experience to the table.
The conversation kicks off with a timely debate on gold and silver, sparked by a now viral quote from Bob Killen: “There are only two people in the world who truly understand gold—and they disagree on the price.” With precious metals going parabolic and emotions running hot, Bob offers a calm, long-term framework for thinking about gold—not just as an inflation hedge, but as a reflection of global wealth, supply and demand, and central bank behavior. His long-term price outlook may surprise you.
From there, the discussion broadens into the health of today’s market, highlighting the shift away from a narrow, mega-cap-led rally toward a much broader and healthier market, with strength in transports, small caps, commodities, and industrial names. Bob shares why this moment may resemble the 1950s more than the 1970s or 1990s, and what that could mean for investors over the next decade.
As a lifelong contrarian, Bob explains why he prefers buying what nobody wants—and names specific areas he believes are currently out of favor, including insurance stocks, REITs, and overlooked small-cap industrial companies. He also explains why discipline, patience, and risk management matter far more than being “right.”
The episode closes with some of Bob’s most valuable wisdom:
• Why emotion is the enemy of good investing
• The danger of falling in love with a stock
• Lessons learned from bankruptcy, bubbles, and booms
• And why avoiding big mistakes matters more than chasing big wins
Whether you’re navigating gold mania, questioning AI euphoria, or looking for opportunities beyond the Magnificent Seven, this episode is packed with hard earned insights, historical perspective, and timeless investment lessons.
Don’t miss this masterclass in long-term thinking from one of the great small-cap investors of our time.
In Episode 232 of the Payne Points of Wealth, Ryan and Chris Payne sit down with two industry heavyweights leading the charge in America’s critical minerals resurgence: Gary Evans, Chairman & CEO of United States Antimony Corporation (UAMY), and Paul Huet, Chairman & CEO of Americas Gold and Silver Corporation (USAS).
In one of the most energetic and eye‑opening conversations we’ve ever hosted, Gary and Paul reveal how their newly announced joint venture is poised to reshape U.S. supply chains for antimony—a mineral essential for defense, electrification, battery technology, solar, and the rapidly expanding AI-driven economy.
Together, they walk us through:
- The global silver shortage – why the world has been undersupplied by 200 million ounces per year for five straight years, and why silver under $50 may be gone forever.
- A behind-the-scenes look at their 30‑day whirlwind deal – how two American companies moved faster than anyone expected to launch a first‑of‑its‑kind U.S. antimony processing partnership.
- Why this may be the beginning of a commodity super-cycle – and why mining equities may still be dramatically undervalued even after silver’s massive run.
- How U.S. companies are racing to reduce dependence on China – from Project Vault to new domestic refining technologies.
- Reviving Idaho’s historic Silver Valley – including upgrading decades-old mines, modernizing extraction methods, tripling output, and unlocking a 100‑year district.
- The real bottleneck in critical minerals – not technology, but feedstock, and why partnerships like this could become the new template.
- The role of defense spending, allies, and national security in America’s next industrial revolution.
Stories from decades in mining, deal-making, and global operations, including Gary’s wild experiences sourcing antimony around the world, and Paul’s journey from underground driller in Canada to CEO.
Plus, Paul shares the song that changed his worldview growing up and tells the unbelievable story behind his mining tattoos and how he ended up running some of the top mining companies globally.
This episode is fast-paced, loaded with insights, and captures a moment that could shape America’s mineral independence for decades to come. If you care about how commodities can play a vital role in your investment portfolio, national security, or the future of U.S. manufacturing, this is a must-listen.
In this week’s episode, we sit down with Adam Johnson, Portfolio Manager of the Bullseye American Ingenuity Fund and author of the widely followed Bullseye Brief. Adam brings his signature 1980’s Wall St. energy as we dive deep into current market dynamics, the power (and pitfalls) of short sellers, the AI productivity boom, inflation surprises, and what investors should brace for in 2026.
We kick things off with Adam sharing some of his biggest surprises from the past year—including why several of his high‑conviction names stalled out despite strong fundamentals. From Toast to SMCI, Adam breaks down how aggressive short-selling and the removal of the SEC’s old “uptick rule” have reshaped market behavior in the age of algorithmic trading.
From there, we zoom out to the macro landscape:
- Why falling oil prices were the real inflation antidote in 2025
- How AI is already creating meaningful productivity gains
- Why profit margins remain at historic highs despite tariffs, geopolitical tension, & political chaos
- And why, even after a massive run, the AI trade may only be in a consolidation phase—not the end of the story
Then we look ahead. Adam reveals his two biggest predictions for 2026:
-
A market that climbs far higher than anyone expects thanks to accelerating earnings and a surprisingly strong U.S. economy.
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A political “blue wave” scare in Q2 that could spark a sudden 20% pullback—only to set up an even more powerful rally as spending ramps up.
We also get into:
- Whether oil is headed for the low $50s—and why that could be wildly bullish
- The “everything rally” and where value, growth, international, and commodities fit in now
- Why investor sentiment still isn’t too hot… and why that matters
- The biggest real risks no one is talking about
- How to stay disciplined when the market tries to shake you out
Finally, Adam shares the moment he knew he’d fully matured as a portfolio manager—and why long-term conviction is the ultimate superpower in the face of noise.
This is one of our most wide-ranging, high-energy conversations of the year. If you care about where markets are headed—and how to position for the year ahead—you don’t want to miss it.
In this inspiring episode of the Payne Points of Wealth, Ryan sits down with Jimmy Chen—founder and CEO of Propel, the groundbreaking fintech company modernizing America’s social safety net and serving millions of low‑income families each month.
Jimmy shares his remarkable journey from arriving in Kansas City as a four‑year‑old immigrant from China with parents who had just $200, to becoming a Stanford graduate, early product manager at LinkedIn and Facebook, and ultimately the creator of one of the most impactful social‑good tech companies in the country.
You’ll hear:
- How Jimmy’s childhood shaped his relationship with money, scarcity, and grit—including his early “entrepreneurial” idea to sell his toys to avoid being a burden on his family
- His realization that Silicon Valley was building tech for people like themselves, not for the millions relying on programs like SNAP.
- The company’s 11‑year journey—from 60 investor rejections and a $12,000 Kickstarter, to raise $90 million from top VCs and investors like Serena Williams and Kevin Durant.
- Why Jimmy hires self-reliance, resilience, and at least one successful —not pedigree.
- The massive role AI now plays in Propel’s product, customer support, and internal operations.
- What he believes the future of education, work, and technology will look like in an AI‑driven world.
Jimmy also opens up about the “chip on his shoulder” to succeed, his father’s work ethic, why frugality helped and hindered him, and the music that shaped him as a kid, navigating life in a new culture.
This is a powerful story of ambition and purpose—proof that game‑changing ideas don’t just come from Silicon Valley, but from childhood uncertainty and a deep commitment to help those less fortunate in our country.
Tune in for a conversation that’s heartfelt, eye‑opening, and packed with wisdom for entrepreneurs, parents, and anyone navigating big decisions about money, purpose, and impact
In this episode of the Payne Points of Wealth, Ryan and Chris Payne sit down with Aleks Musika — renowned menswear designer and Co‑Founder of luxury label Musika New York. Aleks shares how a childhood fascination with style set him on a path that led from working in retail to joining the Tom Ford Made-to-Measure program, where he honed the craftsmanship and eye for detail that would shape his career.
Aleks walks us through how he built his brand from the ground up, transforming an Instagram fashion blog into one of the fastest‑growing bespoke menswear houses in the world. Today, Musika New York is recognized for its bold, modern tailoring and has dressed major celebrities and athletes — including Jay‑Z, Stephen Curry, Kevin Hart, Michael B. Jordan, and Lewis Hamilton.
From leaving Miami to build his company in New York, to creating custom pieces for high‑profile clients, Aleks reveals the grit, creativity, and relentless drive behind his success.
If you’re curious about entrepreneurship, fashion, branding, or the mindset it takes to break into a competitive industry, this is a must‑listen conversation.
2025 was a stellar year for investors—but will the same playbook work in 2026?
In this episode of Payne Points of Wealth, Ryan Payne, Bob, Chris, and special guest Aaron Dessen kick off the new year by reflecting on an unexpected, across‑the‑board winning year in markets—and then pivot to what really matters now: what could derail your portfolio in 2026.
The team breaks down 5 key hurdles investors must watch in the coming year, including geopolitical shocks, Fed rate cuts, the dangers of sitting in cash, speculative “casino‑like” market behavior, and the growing risk of chasing last year’s returns. From surprise upside volatility during global conflicts to why money markets are not a long‑term solution, this episode challenges many of today’s popular investing assumptions.
You’ll also hear a candid discussion on:
- Why no one—not even experts—can reliably predict markets
- The hidden risks of FOMO in late‑stage bull markets
- Whether gold, silver, and commodities still belong in portfolios after a big run
- The difference between investing and speculating in leveraged ETFs and momentum trades
- Why diversification and discipline matter more than ever in hot economic conditions
In the second half of the show, the team performs a real‑world Financial Autopsy, analyzing the portfolio of a retired couple in their late 70s. Aaron walks through how excessive equity exposure, high‑fee mutual funds, and poor tax efficiency put retirees at serious risk—despite “good performance” on paper. The group highlights how reallocating toward income, reducing downside risk, and aligning investments with actual retirement goals can dramatically improve peace of mind.
This episode is a powerful reminder that:
Bull markets reward confidence—but they also hide risk.
Whether you’re approaching retirement, already retired, or just wondering how to position your portfolio for an unpredictable 2026, Episode 228 delivers timely perspective, practical insights, and a healthy dose of market realism.
Don’t miss this essential start‑to‑the‑year conversation.
Markets are printing fresh highs, yet some investors are getting crushed—how does that happen? In this roundtable, Ryan Payne, Bob Payne, Courtney Garcia, and Frankie Lagrotteria break down a real case of a couple in their late 50s whose “do‑anything‑to-go-faster” portfolio relied on leverage and crowd‑favorite names…right as they approach full retirement. We dissect why speculation masquerading as strategy can implode even in up markets, why “know what you own and why you own it” matters more than ever, and how to rebuild a plan centered on durable income and disciplined risk management.
You’ll hear why the “Ozempic portfolio” analogy fits—everyone wants the quick fix—but lasting wealth still requires basics: diversified exposure, sensible cash flow, and rules that keep emotions out of the driver’s seat. We also cover today’s opportunities to generate income (value, small caps, international, REITs, and bonds at still‑elevated yields), our 5% rebalance discipline, and the investor psychology traps that move the goalposts until a margin call makes the decision for you. As Bob puts it: time passes, markets operate—embrace that principle, and you’ll stop chasing the cool kids and start compounding with the rich ones.
What we cover:
- Why leverage is a “rocket booster” on both gains and losses—and how portfolios can sink while indexes rise
- The danger of fashion FOMO: copying friends, gym talk, or headlines instead of a plan
- Income blindness: several million invested but only ~$4K/year in cash flow—why that’s a retirement red flag
- Today’s income playbook: value, small caps, international, REITs, and bonds (with yields still attractive)
- Discipline over drama: our 5% rebalance trigger and rules that keep feelings from running your money
- Investor psychology: goalpost‑moving, “being right twice” in speculation, and volatility as the fee for long‑term returns
- Practical steps to audit and de‑risk before retirement
Key takeaways:
- Know what you own and why. Double‑levered bets can fall even when the market is up—understand the mechanics before you buy.
- Build real cash flow. Retirement works best when your portfolio pays you, so diversify toward durable income sources.
- Write your rules. Pre‑commit to rebalance triggers, position limits, and exit criteria to avoid emotional decisions.
- Approximately right beats precisely wrong. You don’t need to predict the next macro move; you need a plan you can stick to.
Calls to action:
- If you’re within 5–10 years of retirement, run a leverage and income audit on your portfolio.
- Want help building a rules‑based, income‑focused plan? Schedule a consult with the Payne Capital team and let’s put discipline to work: paynecm.com/financialplan/
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Enjoying the show? Follow, rate, and review Payne Points of Wealth on Apple Podcasts and Spotify and share this episode with a friend who’s chasing “quick wins” instead of compounding.
In this episode of Payne Points of Wealth, we sit down with Songe LaRon, a dynamic New York City tech entrepreneur, Co-Founder and CEO of SQUIRE Technologies—the world’s leading all-in-one barbershop business management system. Songe shares his remarkable journey from growing up in Manhattan with artist parents, to earning a J.D. from Yale, practicing law at a top firm, and ultimately making the leap from a more certain future in corporate America to launch a tech company that’s transforming an entire industry.
We explore how his upbringing shaped his relationship with money, the entrepreneurial spark that led to founding SQUIRE in 2015, and the challenges of breaking into tech without a technical background. Songe reveals how he and his team scaled SQUIRE to serve over 32,000 professionals across three continents, raised nearly $150M in funding, and built a culture of innovation that now integrates AI to revolutionize barbershop operations.
This episode is packed with insights on funding a startup, lessons from running an actual barbershop, personal wealth philosophies, and the mindset required to turn an idea into an industry leader. Plus, Songe shares his thoughts on the future of AI in business and the importance of resilience in entrepreneurship.
Is the AI Bubble Finally Here??? The Roundtable We NeededIn episode 225 of the Payne Points of Wealth, Ryan, Bob, and Chris tackle one of the most fundamental—and often overlooked—principles of investing: diversification. Why do so many investors ignore this simple rule and chase the hottest trends like AI stocks? We break down the psychology behind FOMO, the dangers of over-concentration, and why rebalancing your portfolio is one of the hardest—but most important—moves you can make.
You’ll hear real-world examples, including a financial autopsy of a couple in early retirement who were unknowingly taking on massive risk. Plus, we share why protecting what you’ve built matters more than chasing the next big thing and how being “approximately correct” beats being “precisely wrong” every time.
If you want to avoid costly mistakes and build true financial independence, this episode is a must-listen!
In this week’s episode, Ryan, Chris, and Courtney sit down with Mihailo Bozic, a dynamic 25-year-old entrepreneur whose journey from Australia to New York City embodies the classic immigrant founder story. With Serbian roots and a background in Finance and Economics from the University of Western Australia, Mihailo has already launched two impactful startups tackling real-world problems.
From his first venture Envited, a social media app revolutionizing student event planning, to his current company Migrate Mate, a job board helping immigrants find visa-sponsored roles in the U.S., Mihailo shares how he bootstrapped his way to $500K ARR in just three months and built a community of over 16,000 job seekers.
We dive into:
- The challenges of startup funding and scaling
- How viral LinkedIn marketing helped Migrate Mate explode
- Building a 15M+ follower base from a meme page
- Lessons from pitching to VCs as an immigrant founder
Given the uncertainty surrounding today’s labor market, the rapid rise of artificial intelligence, evolving U.S. immigration policies, and the shifting landscape of American entrepreneurship, this episode offers timely and thought-provoking insights into the state of the modern U.S. economy.
Whether you’re an investor, an aspiring entrepreneur, an immigrant chasing opportunity, or simply someone who loves a good hustle story—this conversation is packed with inspiration, practical wisdom, and real-world perspective.
All right, all right, all right—this week, it’s just the Payne Capital crew, no guests, no filters, just real talk. After a string of great interviews, we’re bringing it back to the roundtable to tackle the question everyone’s asking: Are we in an artificial intelligence bubble?
Bob dives into market history and draws parallels to the tech boom of the '90s. Courtney shares what Wall Street strategists are saying and why the AI narrative is dominating every segment. Chris gives us the pulse from clients—some are all-in on AI, others are bracing for a crash. Ryan calls out the all-or-nothing mindset and why predicting the top is a fool’s game.
We also dissect a real financial plan in our Financial Autopsy segment, helping a couple in their late 60s shift from aggressive growth to income-focused investing—without triggering massive tax bills. From margin debt mania to gold’s surprise rally, from diversification myths to emotional investing traps, this episode is packed with insights, laughs, and actionable advice.
Tune in to hear:
✅ Are we in 1995 or 1999? Bob reads the market tea leaves.
✅ Why diversification still matters—even if AI is hot.
✅ How to avoid living by the sword and dying by the sword in your portfolio.
✅ The emotional toll of bear markets and how to prepare before they hit.
✅ A real-life case study on reducing risk, increasing income, and optimizing for taxes.
Don’t miss this one—because when the tide goes out, you’ll want to be wearing the right financial swimwear.
In this week’s episode of the Payne Points of Wealth, Bob, Ryan, and Chris sit down with Sara Uy, the dynamic 28-year-old founder of SellingSara, a New York-based sales training program. Together, they unpack the shifting landscape of the job market, the rise of AI in hiring, and why soft skills and emotional intelligence are more valuable than ever. Sara shares her firsthand insights into Gen Z’s job search struggles, the disconnect between employer expectations and hiring realities, and why Artificial Intelligence still can’t replace human intelligence—especially in sales. From cold calling in the age of call screening to what makes a top-performing salesperson, this episode delivers sharp insights, humor, and a front-line perspective on how AI is reshaping today’s labor market—and why human skills still matter more than ever.
In this electrifying episode of the Payne Points of Wealth, Bob, Ryan, and Chris sit down with Gary C. Evans, a serial entrepreneur and the current Chairman & CEO of United States Antimony Corporation (USAC). Gary shares his rollercoaster journey from the high-stakes world of Texas oil to leading one of America’s most strategically vital mineral companies.
We dive into:
- His early days as a bold Texas oilman and the lessons running 8 public companies.
- The recent meteoric rise of USAC stock, fueled by:
- A $25 million capital raise
- A $245 million U.S. government contract for antimony supply
- The potential to become one of the largest antimony producers outside China
- A massive 400% expansion of their Montana smelter
Gary’s story is one of grit, vision, and relentless innovation. Whether you’re an investor, entrepreneur, or just love an exciting American business success story, this episode is packed with insights and inspiration.
🔊 Tune in now to hear how Gary is reshaping America’s critical mineral supply chain—and why Wall Street is paying close attention.
This week on the Payne Points of Wealth, Bob, Ryan, Chris, and Courtney are joined by Washington Examiner columnist and sharp political commentator Tiana Lowe-Doescher for a deep dive into the complex intersection of politics and financial markets.
We explore the Trump administration’s push to lower interest rates — and why the Federal Reserve no longer dictates long-term yields like mortgage rates. Instead, it’s the bond market calling the shots, driven by the sheer scale of our national debt. With 31% of the $29.7 trillion in marketable debt maturing within the next year, every 1% rise in interest rates could cost taxpayers nearly $100 billion — roughly the annual budget of the entire Department of Homeland Security. So, who really holds the reins on our national debt? Investor confidence has been shaken by the Trump administration’s attempts to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Meanwhile, we are headed to unknown territory as the government attempts to manage the US’s $2 trillion annual deficit.
We also break down how markets are responding to the Trump administration’s aggressive tariff strategy. Despite implementing the steepest tariff regime in nearly a century, President Trump has defied economists’ dire expectations — inflation hasn’t surged, and economic growth remains resilient. Why? In part, thanks to tens of billions in savings from sweeping deregulation.
Tiana helps us unpack the nuanced market reactions: investors are increasingly distinguishing between tariffs used to offset new debt issuance — which markets favor — and those aimed at shrinking trade deficits, which can disrupt the current account surplus and push Treasury yields higher. It’s never easy!
It’s a timely, thought-provoking conversation on monetary policy, fiscal discipline, and the political forces shaping America’s economic future. Don’t miss it.
This week on Payne Points of Wealth, Bob, Ryan, Chris, and Courtney dive into the evolving dynamics of the U.S. labor market. Despite predictions of a slowdown, companies are hesitant to lay off workers—even as hiring remains sluggish. Is this a sign of economic weakness, or are deeper demographic shifts like an aging population and reduced immigration reshaping the workforce?
We also unpack Wall Street’s push to make alternative investments more accessible to everyday investors—a movement often branded as “democratization.” While financial firms tout the benefits of private equity and other alternatives, few are talking about the risks. In fact, as retail investors are being encouraged to buy in, institutional giants are quietly heading for the exits. Yale’s $41.4 billion endowment is unwinding nearly $3 billion in alternative holdings.
Meanwhile, private credit—a market that barely existed a decade ago—is surging toward $2 trillion. Firms like Apollo and Blackstone are now lending directly to businesses, consumers, and real estate investors, giving regular investors unprecedented access. But is this truly a golden opportunity, or a hidden risk to your retirement? We break down the opaque, illiquid nature of these investments and what they could mean for your long-term financial future.
Tune in for our take on what’s really happening in the job market and whether Wall Street’s latest pitch is worth your hard-earned dollars.
In this week’s episode, Bob, Ryan & Chris dive into the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate cut. Was it a necessary move to support a slowing economy—or is Jerome Powell just spiking the punch bowl? With all major U.S. stock markets sitting at all-time highs, the trio debates whether investors are too focused on the “AI trade,” pouring into names like Nvidia, Tesla, Palantir, and meme stock Opendoor, while overlooking new bull markets hiding in plain sight.
Meanwhile, money market fund assets have ballooned to $7.28 trillion, but yields are falling fast as inflation ticks up. That means real returns on short-term instruments are collapsing—so where will all that cash go next?
As economic growth picks up, the dollar weakens, and short-term rates fall, Bob, Ryan & Chris break down the smartest strategies to grow and protect your wealth. Whether you're planning for retirement or just trying to stay ahead of the curve, this episode is packed with insights to help you navigate the shifting financial landscape.
In this week’s episode, Ryan, Chris, and Courtney dive into the paradox of modern investing: why are so many investors chasing assets like Gold, Bitcoin, and Nvidia, which offer little to no income—while ignoring the historical power of dividend-paying stocks?
We unpack a revealing JP Morgan study showing that concludes 55% of the S&P 500’s total return since 1987 came from re-invested dividends. Contrary to popular belief, high-flying tech stocks haven’t been the primary engine of long-term market returns. In fact, the best-performing U.S. stock over the past 40 years, Altria Group (ticker: MO), formerly known as Philip Morris, is an old-school producer and marketer of tobacco products. From 1985–2025, Altria stock returned an incredible 2,033,839%, a $1,000 invested in 1985 would be worth over $20 million today! Even more remarkably, over 80% of that return can be attributed to dividend reinvestment.
But here’s the twist—dividend paying value stocks have been underperforming their growth stock counterparts over the past decade, driven by themes like AI, have dramatically outperformed. Is this just a temporary anomaly? Will markets revert to the mean? Are dividend stocks about to make a comeback? Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is betting big on income-rich sectors like healthcare and energy instead of chasing the current hype around the Magnificent 7. With many high-yielding stocks trading at steep discounts to the tech-heavy S&P 500, is now the time to lean into income? We give you the “Payne Perspective.”
We also tackle the recent signs of weakness in the labor market—and what it really reveals about the underlying health of the economy. Are Wall Street economists missing the mark yet again? The stock market is hitting all-time highs, economic growth is accelerating, and corporate profits are trending upward, all forward-looking indicators that point to a continued expansion. So, do we truly need more rate cuts? Or is the Federal Reserve simply spiking the punch bowl—risking an overheated economy and inflated asset prices? We break it all down and share exactly what we think.
💰 Warren Buffett’s latest moves—abandoning the Magnificent 7 and doubling down on value-rich healthcare, homebuilder & energy stocks
📉 The recent labor market weakness—what it really signals about the economy
📈 Why Wall Street strategists might be missing the mark (again)
🏦 Whether the Fed is about to overdo it with rate cuts, risking an overheated economy
If you’re wondering where the smart money is headed and how to position your portfolio for long-term success, this episode is a must-listen.
This week on Payne Points of Wealth, Bob, Ryan, Chris, and Courtney unpack what Ryan’s recent trip to MetLife Stadium to see his favorite band, Oasis, reveals about the current state of the economy. Yes, even a rock concert can be an economic indicator!
We dive into Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s surprising pivot toward cutting interest rates this fall. What does this mean for economic growth and the stock market? Is this the fuel the bull market really needs to keep melting higher?
Plus, retail investors are now responsible for 18% of all stock market trades—nearly double the amount of 2010, according to estimates by Sifma, a Wall Street trade group. Are individual investors becoming smarter, or are we seeing classic late-stage bull market behavior? We weigh in with our decades of experience navigating market psychology.
And in our Financial Autopsy segment, we dissect a real-life financial plan to spotlight one of the biggest mistakes investors make: overloading on low-yield or declining cash flow investments. Income is king when it comes to financial independence—are you building your portfolio the right way today?
Tune in for insights, hot takes, and actionable advice to help you build real wealth in today’s market.
Common Sense Capitalism with John Catsimatidis Jr.In this week’s episode of Payne Points of Wealth, we sit down with John A. Catsimatidis Jr., President and COO of Red Apple Group, a $7 billion powerhouse spanning energy, supermarkets, media, real estate, and investments.
In a wide-ranging conversation, we discuss how John applies elements of Warren Buffett’s investment philosophy to his own portfolio management. We forecast the direction of energy prices and their impact on inflation, and explore what Fed interest rate cuts could mean for an ailing real estate market. We also dive into Gen Z’s affordability crisis and how to solve the current New York City housing shortage without resorting to socialism.
John’s approach to life, business, and investing is refreshingly straightforward—rooted in common sense, the ability to integrate principles across many disciplines, driven with clarity & conviction.
Whether you’re an investor, entrepreneur, or just curious about the current forces shaping our economy, this episode offers invaluable insights from one of NYC’s rising business leaders.
🎧 Tune in for a fascinating conversation that blends big-picture thinking with practical wisdom.
In this week’s episode of the Payne Points of Wealth, Bob, Ryan, Chris, & Courtney dive into President Donald Trump’s controversial new executive order that opens the door for private equity, venture capital, and hedge funds to be included in your retirement account. Is this a golden opportunity to supercharge your portfolio—or just another Wall Street scheme to rake in higher fees with less transparency? We break it all down and give you our take.
💥 Plus, we tackle the ongoing debate around inflation. With consumer prices less hot than expected, is inflation finally behind us—or is this just the calm before the storm? Economists predicted a summer spike due to tariffs, but so far, they’ve missed the mark. Meanwhile, oil prices are plunging, helping to offset rising costs elsewhere. We’ll help you navigate this uncertainty and position your portfolio accordingly.
🔍 And in our Financial Autopsy segment, we dissect a real-life financial plan to highlight the dangers of parking your money in CDs and cash—especially with the Fed potentially cutting rates again. Sitting on the sidelines could seriously derail your retirement goals. We’ll give you a blueprint for allocating your capital for both growth and safety in today’s market
📈 Don’t miss this episode—it’s packed with insights to help you make smarter financial decisions in uncertain times.
This week on the Payne Points of Wealth, Bob, Ryan, and Chris dive into Trump’s reign of tariffs, unpacking the economic ripple effects of his aggressive import tax strategy. From business impacts to what it means for your wallet and investments, we break down the real-world consequences of the ongoing trade war.
We also tackle the high-stakes dilemma facing Fed Chair Jerome “Jay” Powell. With political pressure mounting from the Trump administration, will the Fed cut rates at the September meeting? Should they? And what would a rate cut mean for the markets, the economy, and your portfolio?
Plus, we explore the wild world of corporate finance as companies start raising debt to buy Bitcoin. Is this a genius hedge or financial madness? And what about the rise of stablecoins like Circle’s USDC—are they a threat to the traditional banking system, or just another crypto fad that won’t end well?
And don’t miss our signature segment: the Financial Autopsy. We dissect a real-life financial plan, exposing some of the most common—and costly—mistakes people are making today when building and protecting their retirement wealth. From being sold an annuity to underestimating the true risk in their portfolio, we highlight the pitfalls you need to avoid.
This episode is packed with insights, hot takes, and practical advice you won’t want to miss. We cover everything you need to know right now to stay ahead of the curve.
An estimated 3 million Americans served in combat during the Vietnam War. Today, only about 725,000 of these brave individuals remain with us. Vietnam is etched in American history as a brutal and costly conflict—one where many young men and women answered the call to serve our country with unwavering courage. On this episode of the Payne Points of Wealth podcast, we had the good fortune to interview our friend Nicholas Simonic, a decorated Vietnam combat veteran. Through grit, resourcefulness, and what Nick would call “luck,” he survived the scorching Southeast Asian heat, guerrilla warfare in thick jungles filled with booby traps, landmines, and tunnels: to make it back home. Nick takes us back to a tumultuous upbringing in Cleveland, his time in the U.S. Army, and how surviving in the face of extreme uncertainty helped him forge a path to building his own version of the American dream as a successful family man and entrepreneur. Today, Nick, a CPA by trade, owns his own accounting practice in Jacksonville, Florida. Join us as Nick shares an emotional and humbling account of his real-life American experience. We hope you find his story as moving and meaningful as we did.
In Episode of 211 of the Payne Points of Wealth, Bob, Ryan, Chris & Frankie sit down with top estate planner Kelly Zerillo to break down everything you need to know about putting together your estate documents in light of the Big Beautiful Act. Whether it's your first time drafting legal documents or you're looking to design a more sophisticated plan, this episode is packed with invaluable insights.
Kelly Zerillo, a seasoned expert in the trust and estates field, provides sophisticated estate planning and administration services to ultra-high net worth individuals, families, and business owners throughout New York City and beyond. With over a decade of experience, Kelly has earned a reputation for delivering personalized, strategic, and tax-efficient solutions tailored to the unique needs of her clients.
Join us as we walk you through all the common-sense strategies and pitfalls for creating the right plan to transfer your assets to the next generation in the most efficient and tax-sensitive manner. We demystify the complexities of legal planning and offer the most straightforward discussion on the topic. From the basics to advanced strategies, this episode is your go-to guide for estate planning.
Tune in to gain a deeper understanding of:
- The essentials of putting together your estate documents.
- Strategies for designing a high-net-worth estate plan.
- Common pitfalls to avoid in asset planning.
- How to transfer your assets efficiently and in a tax-sensitive manner.
Don't miss this opportunity to learn from one of the best in the field. Whether you're just starting out or looking to refine your existing plan, this episode has something for everyone.
In this episode of the Payne Points of Wealth, join Bob, Ryan, Chris, and Courtney as they dive into the latest buzz in American politics—the new political party proposed by none other than Elon Musk. Is this the dawn of a new political era, or is Musk simply expressing frustration over rampant government spending? We’ll dissect the potential impacts of adding trillions to the already massive government debt and explore the unintended consequences that could follow.
We’ll also delve into the implications of the newly enacted Big Beautiful Law on small company stocks. Could this be the perfect moment to re-allocate your investment portfolio? Don’t Miss this Episode …
In episode 209 of Payne Points of Wealth, Bob, Ryan, and Chris dive into the ramifications of the One Big Beautiful Bill on the economy. With government spending spiraling out of control, we find ourselves amidst a massive productivity boom driven by artificial intelligence, robotics, and automation. How will these changes affect your financial life? We also explore Federal Chairman Jerome Powell's interest rate dilemma. Should he heed President Trump's call for resignation due to delayed rate cuts, or stay the course as tariff negotiations continue, potentially causing an inflation spike? Additionally, we discuss the current state of the housing market and the possibility of New York teetering on the edge of communism. This episode is crucial for making informed decisions about your money. Don't miss it!
Join us for a mind-blowing conversation with Louis-Vincent Gave, founding partner and CEO of Gavekal Group. We explore the weakening dollar, China’s new manufacturing supremacy, and why Tesla needs to worry, the next commodity boom, and the unconventional reasons Latin America might be the investment opportunity of a lifetime. Reflecting on our first conversation with Louis in December 2023, paynecm.com/ep143, he predicted a major rally in Chinese stocks right before it happened. Tune in as we uncover major trends happening right now that NO ONE IS TALKING ABOUT when it comes to investing your money.
Louis is the founding partner and CEO of Gavekal Group, a research and financial services firm based in Hong Kong. After graduating from Duke University and studying Mandarin at Nanjing University, Louis joined the French Army, then went on to become a financial analyst at Paribas, first in Paris, then in Hong Kong. In 1999, he launched Gavekal with his father, Charles, and Anatole Kaletsky. Louis is the author of seven books, the latest being Avoiding the Punch: Investing in Uncertain Times.
In this episode of Payne Points of Wealth, Bob, Ryan, Chris & Courtney dive into the critical mistakes that could derail your retirement plans. The recent market volatility caused by recent events like tariff announcements can significantly impact returns if you don’t make smart decisions with your money. We’ll explore three common missteps that investors often make:
Doing Too Much: Reacting impulsively to market drops by pulling out investments can lead to missing subsequent recoveries. We’ll discuss why staying the course with a comfortable asset allocation is often the better strategy. Did you know that from 2005 through 2024, seven of the S&P 500’s 10 best days occurred within two weeks of the 10 worst days? This insight from J.P. Morgan Asset Management highlights the importance of patience.
Losing Sight of the Big Picture: With money in different retirement plans from job changes to holding your savings with different financial institutions, it’s easy to lose track of how your overall portfolio is allocated. We’ll explain how streamlining your investment strategy can be a game-changer for reaching your financial goals.
Forgetting About Fees: Many investors are unaware of the fees they pay on their respective portfolios, mainly because most of these costs can be hidden. We’ll shed light on how choosing low-cost options and being mindful of fees can help maximize your returns. A U.S. Government Accountability Office report from 2021 found that 41% of 401(k) participants don’t know they pay any fees in their plan. We’ll help you become fee-savvy to protect your nest egg.
Tune in to learn how to avoid these pitfalls and secure your financial future!
In this episode of Payne Points of Wealth, hosts Bob, Ryan, Chris, and Courtney explore the current state of the real estate markets in New York City and nationwide with Pierre Debbas, a leading NYC attorney and founding partner of Romer Debbas, LLP.
They discuss the record highs of the NYC real estate market in 2021, driven by low interest rates and post-pandemic demand. With rising interest rates now making homes less affordable, they delve into the future of the market: Will rates continue to climb? Will the market cool down, or can prices surge again?
Pierre, with over 20 years of experience in real estate and business law, shares his insights on these pressing questions. Recognized as a Super Lawyer and a thought leader in the industry, Pierre's expertise covers a wide range of transactional matters.
Tune in for valuable insights from one of the industry's top professionals. Learn more about Pierre at romerdebbas.com.
In Episode 205 of the Payne Points of Wealth, Bob, Ryan & Courtney dive deep into how the current economic environment is affecting your personal finances. We start by exploring what the stock market is really telling us about Trump’s Tariff War, The Big Beautiful Bill’s impact on our nation’s growing deficit, and what rising interest rates signal about the health of the US economy. And wow, are these factors affecting the financial markets? What does it all mean for your investment portfolio?
Next, we shift our focus to the global productivity boom. Companies around the world are becoming more efficient, leveraging technology and innovation to drive growth. We discuss the key drivers behind this productivity surge and its implications for where you should consider positioning your assets for the longer term.
This week’s The Tipping Point, we conduct a financial autopsy on a portfolio Ryan and Courtney recently reviewed. We uncover the hidden pitfalls that many investors face, including:
- Extremely high and hidden fees: How these fees can erode your returns over time.
- Extreme overlap of funds: The dangers of holding multiple funds that invest in the same stocks, particularly in the technology and AI sectors.
- Lack of consistent income: The importance of diversifying your portfolio to ensure a steady income stream.
- Underperforming mutual funds: Why most expensive mutual funds fail to beat their benchmarks and what you can do about it.
Join us as we unravel the current issues affecting your financial life and provide real-world insights to help you navigate the economic waves and optimize your wealth strategy. Whether you’re retired, saving for the future, or just starting out, this episode is packed with actionable steps to guide you on your path to financial independence.
Strong emotions can drive you to make ill-timed decisions when it comes to growing your wealth. Fears of never-ending trade wars, a sinking economy and skyrocketing inflation captured our imagination while stock prices plunged last month. The Media’s amplification of doom and gloom can cause a visceral response, luring you into making rash decisions with your hard-earned money.
Now, with trade deals being negotiated, wages rising, cost of living moderation, and stock prices climbing, it appears the world isn’t going to end. On episode 204 of the Payne Points of Wealth, we address the deep-burning question on everyone’s mind: “Is the BIG rally in stocks going to hold?” Join us as we discuss the high levels of fear among professional investors, the “real” state of the US economy, and uncover the underlying conditions that could lead to even more gains in your portfolio. From the US-China trade truce to strengthening economic data, we break down what you need to know to grow your wealth long-term.
Whether you’re retired, building your financial life, or just getting started, this episode is packed with insights and strategies on how to navigate extreme volatility and stay focused on your long-term goals. Don’t miss out on the chance to be prepared for what could be a monumental shift in the stock market!
Fear & Loathing in Today’s Economy: Money Mistakes to AvoidIn episode 203 of the Payne Points of Wealth, Bob, Ryan, and Chris tackle the financial missteps that can jeopardize your economic well-being in today’s volatile market. Join us as we delve into:
Panicking to CashWhen the market takes a downturn, it’s natural to feel the urge to convert your investments to cash. However, this knee-jerk reaction can often lead to missed opportunities and long-term losses. We’ll discuss why it’s important to stay calm and consider the bigger picture before making drastic changes to your portfolio.
Allocating Your Money to Annuities or Private InvestmentsMany insurance products and private investments promise lucrative returns and/or safety, but they come with their own set of risks and challenges. We’ll explore the potential rewards and pitfalls of investing in annuities, private equity, venture capital, and other non-public assets. Learn how to evaluate these opportunities and decide if they align with your financial goals and risk tolerance.
Doubling Down on the Strategy of the Past
Relying on outdated strategies that worked in previous economic climates can be detrimental in today’s rapidly changing market. We’ll analyze why it’s crucial to adapt your investment approach to current conditions and avoid the trap of sticking to old habits. Discover how to stay flexible and responsive to new trends and opportunities.
Tune in to gain insights into how to navigate the complexities of the current economy and make smarter financial decisions. Whether you’re retired, planning for your financial future or just starting out, this episode will provide valuable advice to help you avoid common money mistakes and protect your financial future.
In episode 202 of Payne Points of Wealth, Bob, Ryan, Chris, and Courtney delve into the critical issues of tariffs, inflation, and their potential impact on the US economy. Join us as we unravel the complex interplay between these economic factors and discuss whether they might be signaling an impending recession. We analyze the latest economic data to uncover its true implications for American businesses and consumers. Additionally, we provide the Payne Capital playbook to strategically position your portfolio in a world where the dollar is depreciating, inflation fears are mounting, and stock prices are volatile. Don't miss this critical conversation that will help you better understand the current economic landscape and optimize your portfolio for the future. Tune in to stay informed and empowered!
In episode 201 of the Payne Points of Wealth, we sit down with Larry McDonald to explore the significant shift from tech stocks to global markets. We delve into the reasons behind the falling dollar, rising interest rates and uncover generational investment opportunities in countries like Brazil.
Larry McDonald, the founder of THE BEAR TRAPS REPORT, brings his extensive expertise as a political policy risk consultant to hedge funds, family offices, asset managers, and high net worth investors. As the former Managing Director and Head of US Macro Strategy at Societe Generale, Larry is a frequent guest on Bloomberg TV, CNBC, Fox Business, and the BBC. He is also a New York Times bestselling author, known for his book "Colossal Failure of Common Sense."
Tune in to gain valuable insights from one of the industry's leading voices! 🎙️📈
Episode 200: Join Ryan, Chris, and Courtney as they dive into a wide-ranging discussion with Rich Antoniello, the visionary Founder & Former CEO of Complex Networks. Rich, now the Executive Chairman at UPROXX Studios and Chairman of FORT NASH, shares his insights on the current state of the economy, the evolution of post-COVID office culture, the real efficiency of AI, and the dynamic media business landscape.
Under Rich's leadership, Complex Networks transformed into a leading youth culture media powerhouse, delivering groundbreaking content across multiple platforms and growing into a multi-brand media empire. Under Rich’s guidance, Complex was acquired by Verizon/Hearst in 2016 and then to Buzzfeed in 2022.
Tune in for an engaging conversation that spans the intersection of business, technology, and culture, featuring one of the industry's most influential figures.
In episode 199 of the Payne Points of Wealth, Ryan, Chris & Courtney discuss what proactive moves you can make with your investment portfolio to safeguard against the current market volatility, as the U.S. embarks on a global trade war. Join us as we discuss the right and wrong way to position your money right now to ensure your wealth remains secure, even in the face of economic uncertainty.
We’ll cover:
- Understanding the Market Sell-Off: What led to the downturn and what to expect next
- Safe Haven Investments: Discover the most effective ways to protect your money
- Diversification Tactics: How to spread out your investments to minimize risk
- Expert Tips: Proven strategies from top financial advisors
- Real-Life Scenarios: Hear how we advised individuals to navigate past uncertainty successfully
Don’t miss this essential guide to financial survival and prosperity. Tune in and take control of your financial future today!
On episode 198 of the Payne Points of Wealth, Bob, Ryan, Chris, and Courtney break down the recent market sell-off as Trump 2.0 tariffs loom large over the global economy, threatening to trigger a US recession. With business uncertainty at an all-time high, investors are left wondering: Is any portfolio truly safe? Join us as we delve into the impact of trade wars, plunging AI stocks, and geopolitical conflicts on your current investments. We’ll discuss strategies to navigate these turbulent times, mitigate risks, and identify potential safe havens for your money. Whether you’re a seasoned investor planning for retirement or just starting your savings journey, this episode offers valuable insights to help you weather the current tariff storm and make informed decisions in these volatile times.
🎙️ Podcast Episode 197: Interview with Adam Johnson - Navigating Today’s Investment Landscape 🎙️
Join us for an insightful conversation with Adam Johnson, the founder and author of BullseyeBrief.com, a weekly investment letter that delves into American Ingenuity through actionable stock picks.
With a diverse background that includes anchoring several daily programs on Bloomberg Television and interviewing top CEOs, heads of state, and prominent investors, Adam brings a wealth of experience to the table. Over his three-decade career on Wall Street, he has traded stocks, options, and oil for ING Asset Management, Louis Dreyfus, and Merrill Lynch. A Princeton graduate with a degree in economics, Adam is well-equipped to provide deep insights into the current macro-economic environment.
In this episode, we discuss the latest trends in oil prices and tackle the pressing question: "Are Artificial intelligence stocks like Nvidia poised to go higher or lower?” Don't miss this opportunity to gain valuable perspectives from a seasoned expert in the investment world.
Tune in for this compelling discussion that will help you navigate the complexities of today's financial markets! 📈💡
In this urgent episode of the Payne Points of Wealth, Bob, Ryan, Chris & Courtney dive deep into the recent stock market sell-off and its implications for your investment portfolio. With uncertainty over tariffs, economic and earnings growth high, it's more critical than ever to allocate your hard-earned money properly. Join us as we explore commonsense strategies to protect your portfolio during these turbulent times. From broadening out your investment exposure to understanding how to properly safeguard your assets, we share our playbook and insights to help you navigate the current financial storm. Don't miss out on this essential guide to securing your financial future!
In episode 195 of the Payne Points of Wealth, Bob, Ryan & Courtney discuss the recent stock market volatility and explore whether the Trump-era policies are to blame. Join us as we analyze the factors contributing to the current selloff, from trade wars to January’s weak economic data. We provide our expert insights on the market’s near-term outlook and offer actionable strategies for investors to grow and protect their wealth amidst uncertainty surrounding Trump 2.0’s new economic policies. Don’t miss this critical discussion on the forces shaping our financial landscape and the potential long-term impacts on your financial future.
On episode 194 of the Payne Points of Wealth, Bob & Ryan sit down with John Catsimatidis, a man whose journey from humble beginnings to billionaire status is nothing short of inspirational. Born on the Greek island of Nisyros and arriving in the United States as an infant, Catsimatidis’ story is a testament to the power of perseverance, hard work, and vision.
Join us as we explore how Catsimatidis built his empire, starting with grocery chains in Manhattan, expanding into the realms of real estate, oil, aviation, and radio through his Red Apple Group. Discover the challenges John faced and the strategies he employed to become one of the most successful American businessmen of all time. We’ll also discuss his political aspirations, including a bid for the Republican nomination for mayor of New York City in 2013.
Tune in as we delve into the extraordinary life of John Catsimatidis, a man who turned his dreams into reality and became a billionaire against seemingly impossible odds. This episode is a must-listen for anyone seeking motivation and insight into the mind of a self-made success.
In this urgent episode, Bob, Ryan, Chris & Courtney tackle the latest economic developments as the dollar weakens and new tariffs loom on the horizon. What does this mean for your investments and financial strategy? Join us as we analyze the potential impacts on global markets, discuss the sectors most at risk, and explore actionable strategies to reposition your portfolio. Whether you're preparing for retirement or just starting your financial journey, this episode is packed with expert insights and practical advice to help you navigate these uncertain times. Tune in to stay ahead of the curve and make informed decisions for your financial future!
In episode 192 of the Payne Points of Wealth, we chat with Sean Fieler, President and Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Equinox Partners Investment Management, about looming inflation risks and the exciting (often wild) opportunities in frontier markets like Kazakhstan, the Republic of Georgia, and beyond.
Sean leads a team at Equinox Partners, a Connecticut-based asset management firm renowned for its strategic, long-term investments in high-quality public companies. Mr. Fieler and his associates specialize in acquiring businesses that trade below their intrinsic value, with a strong emphasis on corporate management and governance.
Join us as Sean shares his insights on inflation and uncovering hidden investment gems in emerging markets. Discover how his extensive travels and hands-on approach with portfolio companies and shape his investment strategies. Tune in for an enlightening discussion on protecting your wealth and exploring new frontiers in the world of investing!
In episode 191 of the Payne Points of Wealth, hosts Bob, Ryan, Chris, and Courtney dive into the possible effects of President Donald Trump's policies on the stock market. Could his administration trigger a dramatic surge in stock prices, or might it result in a severe decline? Tune in as we analyze historical trends, evaluate the current economic climate, and provide our expert insights on what could unfold under Trump's leadership—and how you can safeguard your finances. Whether you're currently retired, planning your financial future, or just beginning your savings journey, this episode is a must-listen!
In episode 190 of Payne Points of Wealth, we delve into the world of Bitcoin with Anthony Pompliano, the Founder & CEO of Professional Capital Management. Anthony, an army veteran and entrepreneur-turned-investor, has built and sold multiple companies and led Product & Growth teams at Facebook and Snapchat. He also manages one of the largest independent financial media platforms and writes The Pomp Letter, a daily newsletter for investors interested in Bitcoin, finance, and technology.
We discuss the potential risks and rewards of investing in this volatile cryptocurrency and examine how Trump 2.0 policies could impact the overall market. Whether you’re a long-term investor planning for retirement or just curious about the crypto craze, this episode is packed with valuable insights to help you navigate the new virtual currency landscape. Tune in to find out if Bitcoin is a boom or bust! from one of the most influential voices in the cryptocurrency universe today.
On episode 189 of the Payne Points of Wealth, we dive into a spirited discussion with Alexandria “Ally” Chun, a dynamic recent college graduate who has already made waves in various fields. From producing a New York Fashion Week show to serving as the elected representative for 1.2 million students as a SUNY Trustee, Ally’s journey is nothing short of inspiring. With a passion for brand development, she thrives on transforming bold ideas into impactful moments and meaningful relationships. Tune in to hear Ally’s unique insights on wealth building, politics, and the beliefs that drive Generation Z, a group that now makes up about one in five Americans—approximately 68 million strong!
On Episode 188 of the Payne Points of Wealth, we sit down with Keith Tessler, the owner and CEO of CMIT Solutions in the Greater Philadelphia Area. Keith’s company specializes in technology and cybersecurity, serving hundreds of companies and thousands of users. Join us as Keith reveals:
- The shocking scale of cybercrime
- How your email could be a gateway for hackers
- The sneaky tactics hackers use, like cookies, spoofing and fake websites
- Tips to spot phishing emails
- The dangers of imposter social media posts
- How to test the strength of your passwords
- Safe internet practices in public spaces like coffee shops
- The importance of sending and receiving encrypted emails
Don’t miss this eye-opening discussion on how to protect yourself and your finances from cyber threats!
Welcome to episode 187 of the Payne Points of Wealth. In this episode, we discuss the current investing landscape and uncover the top long-term opportunities for 2025. Join Bob, Ryan, Chris & Courtney as they breakdown how to determine what are the right investments to own in your portfolio to help you secure your financial future. We’ll explore the current state of the US economy and how Trump 2.0 policies may affect your net worth, highlight key areas to potentially allocate your capital and offer practical tips on diversifying your money. Whether you’re a long-term investor planning for retirement or just starting your wealth building journey, this episode is packed with valuable insights to help you make smart financial decisions and balance the risk and return on your portfolio. Don’t miss out on the chance to gain insights from seasoned wealth experts and elevate your financial future to new heights!
In episode 186 of the Payne Points of Wealth, Bob, Ryan & Chris explore the alarming signs that suggest we might be on the verge of another Dotcom-like Bubble. With AI stocks and cryptocurrencies soaring to unprecedented heights and many public company valuations elevated, are we heading for a repeat of the early 2000s crash that wiped out $5 trillion in market value or does this Big Booming Bull Market have a lot further to run? Join us as we delve into the data, discuss current and past market conditions, and analyze the potential risks of today’s AI tech-driven economy and stock market. Don’t miss this prescient discussion that could help you make better decisions on how to allocate your capital for retirement.
In episode 185 of the Payne Points of Wealth, we sit down with James “Jim” Grant, the esteemed American writer and publisher behind Grant’s Interest Rate Observer. Since 1983, Jim has been providing keen insights into the financial markets through his twice-monthly journal. With several books on finance and history to his name, Jim brings a wealth of knowledge to our discussion.
Join us as we delve into the potential bubbles and euphoria in today’s market, explore the rich history of financial markets, and discuss the past and future of interest rates. Discover how these factors might impact your portfolio and gain valuable perspectives from one of the industry’s most respected voices.
Join us for Episode 184 of the Payne Points of Wealth as we dissect the current stock market frenzy. Is the post-election rally just getting started or are investors late to the party? Bob, Ryan, Chris & Courtney discuss the current market exuberance, provide a historical context to the current trading environment and share their insights on how to position your portfolio now. Whether you’re growing your wealth for retirement or just curious about the market’s wild ride, this episode is packed with valuable information and perspectives you won’t want to miss. Tune in to stay ahead of the curve and make sense of the current market madness!
Join Bob, Ryan, Chris, Courtney, and Gaurav as they break down the euphoric state of the stock market post-election. Is it turning into a high-stakes casino? Are investors making risky bets with their hard-earned money? We’ll dive into the latest trends, including whether high-flying investments like Bitcoin and Nvidia should be in your portfolio. Plus, we’ll cover Wall Street’s latest expectations for the economy and the stock market, and what it all means for your financial future. Tune in to find out if your retirement savings are at risk and how to protect your financial health in these volatile times. Don’t miss this crucial conversation!
In this episode of the Payne Points of Wealth, Bob, Ryan & Courtney discuss the potential financial impacts of a Trump presidency on your investment portfolio. From stock market volatility and tax policy changes to shifts in regulation and trade agreements, we cover it all. Join us as we explore:
- The potential for more persistent inflation and what it means for your investments.
- The impact of deregulation and potentially lower taxes for companies and individuals
- The influence on interest rates and its implications for bonds, stocks and cash
Tune in to get our latest thoughts and practical advice on where to allocate your capital given the recent shift in our political landscape. Whether you’re just starting your savings journey or planning for retirement, this episode is filled with timely insights to help you secure your financial future post-election. Don’t miss out!
Episode 188: The Retirement Horror Show
Welcome to a spine-chilling episode of the Payne Points of Wealth! As Halloween arrives, Bob, Ryan, Chris & Courtney dive into the scariest retirement mistakes that could haunt your golden years. From financial pitfalls to lifestyle blunders, these are the terrifying truths no one warns you about. Join us as we uncover the shocking realities and share tips to avoid these retirement nightmares. Don’t miss out—your future self will thank you!
In episode 180 of the Payne Points of Wealth, Bob, Ryan & Chris discuss the current economic landscape to answer the burning question: Is inflation making a comeback? Join us as we explore what factors may reignite inflation, its potential impact on your finances, and most importantly, how you can safeguard your investments. We will share actionable strategies to protect your portfolio and ensure your financial stability in these extremely uncertain times. Don’t miss out on this essential guide to navigating the challenges of a rising inflation environment!
Tune in and stay ahead of the curve!
Are you making the right decisions with your portfolio ahead of next month’s presidential election? In this episode of the Payne Points of Wealth, we break down the mistakes many investors are making before Americans head to the polls on November 5th. Join Ryan, Chris, and Courtney as they analyze historical trends, current market conditions, and how stocks typically behave once election uncertainty is over. Whether you’re retired now or building wealth for financial independence, this episode will help you block out the political noise and make smarter, more pragmatic decisions to grow your money long-term. Tune in now and get ready to navigate the election uncertainty like a pro!
Join Bob, Ryan, and Chris as they dive into the recent jumbo-sized interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Could more interest rate reductions ignite a massive stock market melt-up? We’ll explore what recent market activity is signaling about interest rates, inflation and how they may affect your investment portfolio. Whether you’re planning for retirement or just curious about the financial world, this episode is packed with unique insights you can’t miss. Tune in to stay ahead and understand the potential impacts on your wealth.
Join Bob, Ryan, Chris, & Courtney as they dive into China’s recent economic turmoil amidst a massive financial stimulus package from Beijing. With headlines about a continued slowdown and whispers of a recovery, what’s the real story? Discover how China’s economic fate impacts global markets and your investment portfolio. Are you ready for a potential economic storm, or is there a silver lining ahead? Tune in for our latest insights on how to navigate these uncertain times! Don’t miss episode 177 of the Payne Points of Wealth, to stay ahead and secure your financial future!
In this eye-opening episode of the Payne Points of Wealth, Ryan & Chris delve into the hidden forces of human nature that are quietly undermining your investment success. Join us as we explore the psychological traps and emotional biases that lead to poor financial decisions. From the fear of missing out (FOMO) to the allure of herd mentality, we uncover how these innate tendencies can sabotage even the most well-thought-out investment strategies. Tune in to learn practical tips and strategies to recognize and overcome these pitfalls, empowering you to take control of your financial future and achieve lasting success. Whether you’re a long-term investor planning for retirement or just starting out, this episode is packed with valuable insights to help you navigate the complex world of investing with confidence and clarity.
In episode 175 of the “Payne Points of Wealth,” we tackle the key challenges of securing your financial future as you age. Everything from rising healthcare costs to inflation, and lifestyle choices can jeopardize your financial stability. Whether you’re nearing retirement or just starting to think about your long-term financial goals, this episode provides valuable advice and practical tips to help you make better-informed decisions about your wealth. Tune in to learn how to create a robust plan that supports your dreams and ensures a comfortable, worry-free future.
In the latest episode of Payne Points of Wealth, we explore the foundational investment principles imparted by Bob, whose eminent investing career spans over five decades. Join us as we delve into the timeless strategies and philosophies Bob has developed and shared with Ryan and Chris, shaping their financial beliefs, and becoming the guiding principles of our Firm, Payne Capital Management. From understanding how human behavior influences financial markets to the value of being a lifelong learner, this episode is packed with practical advice and personal anecdotes that underscore the enduring relevance of Bob’s teachings. Whether you’re just beginning your financial journey or you’re a seasoned investor planning for retirement, you’ll uncover valuable insights to enhance your wealth-building efforts.
In episode 173 of the Payne Points of Wealth, we dive into the potential market volatility that could be triggered by the upcoming election. 📊 As uncertainty looms, investors are on edge, wondering how their portfolios might be impacted. But fear not! We’ve got the inside scoop on what the smart money is doing right now to navigate these turbulent times. 💼
Join us as we explore:
- The historical impact of elections on the stock market
- Strategies you can use to safeguard your assets
- Expert predictions on market trends post-election
Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just starting out, this episode is packed with valuable insights to help you stay ahead of the curve. Don’t miss out on this timely and essential discussion! 🎧
In episode 172 of the Payne Points of Wealth, Bob, Ryan & Chris dive deep into the financial landscape of 2024 to uncover why cash, even if it is parked in a 5% money market fund remains a poor choice for your wealth. Join us as we explore the hidden truths and expert insights that reveal the pitfalls of holding onto too much cash in today’s rapidly evolving economy. From inflation to investment opportunities, we’ll break down the factors that make cash a liability rather than an asset. Tune in to learn how to protect and grow your wealth in a world where cash is still trash!
In episode 171 of Payne Points of Wealth, we cover recent IRS changes to inherited retirement accounts and their potential impact on your financial plan. We’ll highlight potential risks, common mistakes, and steps you can take to protect your retirement savings, by reducing taxes and staying compliant with IRS rules.
Markets have been rocked by volatility after a prolonged period of calm. Since Friday, we’ve seen a significant wave of stock selloffs, largely driven by the unraveling of the once-profitable Japanese Yen Carry Trade. Bob, Ryan, and Chris break down the dramatic twists and turns that have led to the unwinding of this very risky strategy and discuss its implications for global markets and your portfolio! 📉🌐
Curious about how recent economic events and market activity are affecting your investments? Tune in to Episode 170 as we dive deeper!
Are money market funds dangerous for your financial health? In the latest episode of The Payne Points of Wealth, Bob, Ryan, Chris & Courtney discuss the implications to your financial health, sitting with too much money in cash, even if the interest rate is high.
Perception vs. reality on the economy It’s Episode 163 and there is a disconnect between perception of how the economy is doing vs. the numbers. We’re not in a recession, we’re in a “vibecession.” If you watch the financial news it seems everything is predicted on what Jerome Powell will say next. But we’ve noticed the overall economy is not as rate-sensitive as it used to be.
Global growth is starting to pick up - broaden your portfolio It's Episode 162 and the naysayers are talking recession again and we've seen a bit of market selling. With all the great opportunities out there, we think it's a mistake to sell in May and go away.
Global growth is picking up, China is emerging from recession, and demand for commodities like copper is surging. International markets are at record highs yet most markets are on sale right now and present a great chance to broaden your portfolio.
Can you feel like an entrepreneur while working for someone else? Our guest, Peter Velardi, shares why he decided to leave a 25-year career in the corporate world to venture out on his own.
As a financial advisor, Peter always knew he was a natural leader. Earlier in his career, he thrived on the freedom to build teams and make things happen. However, as the firm he worked for became more corporate, the layers of bureaucracy began to stifle his creativity, and that’s why at age 49 he made the leap into entrepreneurship.
Peter describes his journey of launching his own business, his perspective on risk, knowing when to give up on an idea vs. leaning into it, the importance of staying mentally and physically fit, and the rewards of being a natural entrepreneur.
What made you make the change from employee to entrepreneur? :00
Wanted to get into venture capital 3:17
Is there an entrepreneurial gene? 5:25
Student of leadership 7:40
What advice did you receive that made a difference? 8:50
Is there a risk gene? 11:50
Is it riskier to “work for the man” or do your own thing? 18:20
What type of fears did you have making the switch? 20:10
Knowing when to give up on an idea vs. leaning into it 22:00
What were your worst and best ventures and why 24:00
The importance of staying fit: healthspan vs. lifespan 28:00
What’s your daily schedule? 32:15
The flight that wasn’t taken 37:10
Can an engineer make a good investment manager? When it comes to our guest Bob Killen, the answer is yes.
In his early years, Bob worked as an aerospace engineer at Pratt & Whitney and later at GE. For family reasons, he went on to change careers and founded an investment firm, The Killen Group where he had great success for over 55 years as an investment manager. Bob discusses how his background as an engineer was an asset in his investing career by applying skills such as in-depth research and math-oriented thinking, as well as understanding physical processes.
Bob and the three Paynes cover many interesting topics and we hope you join us for this episode of Payne Points of Wealth.
Maria Bartiromo made history in 1995 as the first journalist to report from the New York Stock Exchange - let alone the first female journalist to do so in a sea of suits. We are so happy to speak with her today on this episode 157 of Payne Points of Wealth.
Maria’s story is a classic American story. From an immigrant family that understood the value of hard work, this Brooklyn girl reached for the stars and made a name for herself as a top financial journalist.
Maria has covered business and the economy for over 30 years. From launching CNBC’s Squawk Box, anchoring the Closing Bell with Maria Bartiromo to currently hosting Sunday Morning Futures on Fox News and Mornings with Maria on Fox Business, where Ryan frequently appears.
Our interview covers a wide range of topics, and we hope you check it out.
Learn more at bartiromo.com
Read about her shows at:
foxbusiness.com/shows/mornings-with-maria
foxnews.com/shows/sunday-morning-futures
https://www.foxbusiness.com/shows/maria-bartiromos-wall-street
Rotation from tech?It’s episode 156 and economic growth is expected to be close to 3% for the first quarter. Also, we’ve seen tech selling off a bit with areas like energy, materials, and commodity-based companies starting to do really well, especially with oil prices going up.
“..small and mid-cap infrastructure stocks are blowing the doors off of technology in terms of performance...” – Bob Payne
On the Tipping Point, we talked to our guest and colleague Jennifer Angell, CFA® who recently renovated her condo in Miami. We discuss some of the parallels between financial planning and home renovation. Join us for this episode of Payne Points of Wealth.
5 companies leading the rallyIt seems all market sentiment is driven by what AI companies are going to do. We recorded this episode right before the chipmaker Nvidia was to announce their quarterly earnings and the hype is strong. The top 5 tech giants that are involved in AI have been leading the rally.
In this episode, Ryan and Chris talk to Ryan’s good friend and entrepreneur, Scott Tantino, who owns two running stores just outside of Philadelphia - North Wales Running Company and All Kinds of Fast. The topics range from how Scott decided to invest in opening a running store to his work/life balance, the value of great service in retail, how he navigated the pandemic shutdown, hiring challenges, and much more. Join us for this episode of Payne Points of Wealth.
Stock Market Bubble Ready to Burst!?It’s episode 146 and the weighting of tech in the S&P 500 is starting to resemble the index back in ’99-2000 before the tech bubble burst. We'll talk about the red flags.
On the Tipping Point, Ryan tests Bob's 55 years of experience with a financial planning "fill in the blank" quiz. Join us for this episode of Payne Points of Wealth.
It’s episode 145 and there’s a record $6 trillion of cash on the sidelines in money-market funds even though the odds are high the Fed will lower rates this year. We’ll tell you why we think sitting in cash is a mistake.
On the Tipping Point, we discuss some of the most important questions you should be asking your financial professional to ensure you've got the right financial game plan for 2024 and beyond.
It’s episode 144, the Fed has become dovish and we have a Santa Claus rally. Some investors are trying to avoid risk by sitting in a money market but we'll talk about why that could be more risky, not less.
On the Tipping Point today, we talk about common pitfalls in your path to financial independence. Join us for this episode of Payne Points of Wealth.
It’s episode 143 and we’re very happy to have our guest Louis-Vincent Gave, the Founding Partner and Chief Executive Officer at Gavekal Research. Louis has written 7 books and many articles about the global economy and emerging markets, emphasizing Asia.
It’s episode 142 and inflation has continued to come down. The consumer is spending, the labor market is strong, earnings for the third quarter were the best in history and the Fed is likely to start cutting next year.
On the Tipping Point, we discuss how working with a financial professional is like having a personal trainer for your health, but for your financial health. Join us for this episode of Payne Points of Wealth.
It's episode 141 and we have many things to be optimistic about yet the stock market remains 5% off its all-time high from 2 years ago. Also, China has extended an olive branch, what does it mean? And, what Elon Musk proves about manufacturing in the US.
On the Tipping Point, we talk about common shortcuts some take on their path to financial independence and why that's a bad idea. Join us for this episode of Payne Points of Wealth.
It's episode 140 and the market has gained 10% in two weeks. We're going to talk about how emotional investing can be. Also, have investors missed the boat on long-term bonds? The market is pricing in rate cuts for next year.
On the Tipping Point, we discuss how overconfidence and ego can ruin your financial independence plan with our guest and colleague, Aaron Dessen, Certified Financial Planner.™ Join us for this episode of Payne Points of Wealth.
It's episode 139. This week we talk about how timing the market is impossible and the importance of a balanced portfolio that includes high-quality bonds and dividends that increase over time to reach your goals.
On the Tipping Point, we discuss where couples can go wrong regarding some important financial decisions, with our guest and colleague, Frankie Lagrotteria, Financial Advisor. Join us for this episode of Payne Points of Wealth.
It's episode 137 and earnings season is off to a great start, we'll talk about it. We’ll also discuss why now is a great time to buy stocks and longer-term bonds. It’s the best time ever to not sit in cash. Also, are we getting the soft landing the Fed talked about?
On the Tipping Point, we go over some of most scandalous financial planning mistakes we’ve seen and how you can avoid them. Join us for this episode of Payne Points of Wealth.
In this episode we talk with Marianna Moliver, she is a super lawyer as voted by Super Lawyers magazine in the areas of estate planning and probate. Marianna has her own practice, Moliver Law and she has great insights and experience in the world of estate planning. It's a topic we get a lot of questions about. Estate planning is something that no one likes to do, but we know it's extremely important.
Some of the other topics discussed in this episode are the market's reaction to chances rates could go higher, jobs and the economy, why equities are the best hedge against inflation long term, and more. Join us for this episode of Payne Points of Wealth.
This week the 3 Paynes talk shop with fellow wealth manager, Adam Johnson, founder of the Bullseye Brief newsletter. Previously, Adam anchored on Bloomberg Television, interviewing CEOs, heads of state, and prominent investors. He has decades of investing experience at Wall Street firms. If you watch Fox Business, you’ve probably seen Ryan and Adam discussing the market with Maria Bartiromo.
Some of the other topics discussed in this episode are inflation, the Fed, how robotics are improving productivity and company margins, why the media loves negativity, oil prices, the psychology of investing, and more! Join us for this episode of Payne Points of Wealth.
It’s Episode 134 and we're seeing positive signs in the latest jobs report, inflation numbers, and earnings estimates.
On the Tipping Point, we’re going to talk about short-term decision-making, and how it can be extremely detrimental to your long-term financial goals. Join us for this episode of Payne Points of Wealth.
It’s Episode 133 and Fed Chair Jay Powell has spoken. He says inflation is still too high and they’re prepared to raise interest rates further. Is this economy ready to fall off a cliff? Are they going to keep raising interest rates and tightening financial conditions? Well, we’re going to give you our two cents.
On The Tipping Point, we’re going to talk about concentrated stock risk, the perils of owning individual stocks, and why it may derail your entire financial life. Our colleague and certified financial planner, Aaron Dessen joins us.
It’s Episode 132 and economic data is really good, and from our perspective, it’s good news. We’re going to tell you why we like the economy right now. We’re going to talk about the market action. The market’s been selling off as we’re getting to the dog days of summer here.
On The Tipping Point, we will talk about your financial planning for the fall. Summer’s coming to an end. Things are getting real. Are you financially fit to get ready for the rest of the year?
It's Episode 131 and we have a very special guest on the show to speak about the labor market. Everyone knows the labor market's been hot and will continue to be. We have Eric Sigurdson on today. He co-leads the Chief Information Officers Practice at Russell Reynolds Associates. He has spent the last 30 years recruiting and placing senior execs in the IT space and is really on the pulse of what's happening in the job market, the tech market specifically.
On The Tipping Point, we're going to talk about some of our true and tried investment philosophies that you can apply to your financial freedom independence plan.
It's episode 130, Payne Points of Wealth, and the rally continues to broaden. We're seeing energy stocks, financial stocks, small-cap stocks, and emerging markets, really starting to move as tech has started to slow down and cool off a little bit. Is this a real rotation in the market? Do you need to reposition your portfolio?
And on the Tipping Point, we're going to talk about your financial health, how it's very similar to your physical health, and the kind of checkups you need to make sure you're on your path to financial independence.
It’s Episode 129 and markets continue to chug along. The Dow having its best streak since 1987 as money continues to pile into this market. Economic data still coming in well, pretty good. Inflation numbers continue to come down. The Fed could be done with its interest rate policy. They may stop raising interest rates. We’re going to give you our viewpoint.
On The Tipping Point, we’re going to talk about cash management. Interest rates have gone up a lot. Are you making the right decisions with your money right now?
It’s Episode 128 and earnings season is upon us. Bank stocks came out with better-than-expected earnings which is good for stock prices. Tech stocks are still melting up. Is this melt-up going to continue? Can this rally sustain itself throughout the rest of the year? How should you position your portfolio? We're going to answer all those questions. And the economy, everyone's talking about it from hard landing to soft landing. Remarkable. They must have been listening to our podcast because we've talked about a soft landing for a long time. We're going to get into the weeds when it comes to the economy, what you should be thinking about right now.
On the Tipping Point, we're going to talk about the cookie-cutter approach. Wall Street loves to sell you a cookie-cutter financial plan. Do you have one? How do you fix it so you're ready for your financial independence?
It’s Episode 127 and the economic data just keeps coming in better than better. We literally had inflation dropping faster than anyone anticipated. Bank earnings came in better than expected. The numbers look good. Employment is strong. This week we have our colleague and Certified Financial Planner™, Courtney Garcia, We’re going to talk about what pitfalls may lie ahead in the economy, what you have to watch out for, and the mistakes you might be making that you need to adjust given where the economy is.
On The Tipping Point, we’re going to talk about paralysis by analysis. There are a lot of things stopping you from making the right financial decisions on your path to financial independence.
It's Episode 126 and the concentration of stocks in the S&P 500 continues to climb. In fact, 7 stocks account for 27% of the index. Which begs the question, how diversified are you if you own the S&P 500? We're going to talk about that today. We're going to talk about this fantastic economy that just won't fall off a cliff no matter what they tell you. We're going to talk about some of the economic data that's come out, and what it means for the rest of the year.
On The Tipping Point, we have a very special guest, our colleague Frankie Lagrotteria. We're going to discuss a lot of different questions you may have right now about how your investment portfolio is positioned. We have some pro tips.
It’s Episode 125 and Apple now is at $3 trillion. As the stock market continues to heat up, economic data continue to come in better than expected. The Roaring Twenties, we’ve been talking about, they’re here. So we’re going to talk about the momentum the market has, what we see in the economy like we do every week, and some of the bigger signals that things are going to get even better than they are today.
On The Tipping Point, we’re going to talk about cyber fraud. We’ve got our friend Keith Tessler telling you how you protect yourself against one of the biggest issues in America today, money being stolen from your account. And we have our colleague Frankie Lagrotteria on the show.
It’s Episode 124 and disbelief is the mother of all bull markets. We hit a recent high this past week in the S&P 500, piercing above where the index was last August on a lot of really good news. Inflation coming down a lot over the course of the last couple of months. We see the Fed making a decision to pause on interest rates. China is stimulating its economy as it’s been slightly slower than was expected on the reopening. So a lot going on, a lot of questions about what’s going to happen for the rest of the year. Is it highly likely we’re going to go into recession, not going into recession? And does this bull market have legs?
On The Tipping Point, we’re going to talk about the long game. When you’re investing your money, trying to get financially independent, you got to think long term, not short term.
It’s Episode 123 and we are in a classic bull market. The market’s been climbing the wall of worry all the way since October. Meanwhile, the Fed finally skips, pauses, stops raising interest rates. I’m not sure if they’ll raise again, but we know inflation continues to come down, dropping like a rock. Meanwhile, wages continue to stay strong as unemployment stays at record lows. Folks, this doesn’t look like a recession.
We’ve got two special guests today. We have our colleague, certified financial planner at Payne Capital Management, and contributor on CNBC, Courtney Garcia. And we’ve got Steve Forbes today talking about his life, his view of the markets and the economy.
It's Episode 122 and it's official, we're in a new booming bull market. The S&P 500 is up over 20% since last October as the economy continues to improve. Inflation coming down. The job market remains strong yet wages are growing at a slower pace. It's almost like a Goldilocks scenario – we will give you our 2 cents. We're past the debt ceiling now we're looking into the future. Bob and I are going to read the tea leaves and tell you exactly what we think is going to happen in the economy. On The Tipping Point, we're going to talk about those gray areas that you have to make decisions on when it comes to your financial independence and you've got to make the right decision. We're going to help you make the right decision.
It’s Episode 121 and the economy continues to remain strong. The jobs market continues to surprise everyone with a hot jobs number. This past week and inflation continues to come down. Every naysayer out there is still skeptical of what kind of condition the economy is in. You know how we feel. We’re optimistic, but we’re going to talk about it today.
On The Tipping Point, we’re going to talk about picking your financial independence date. When can you stop working, and live off your portfolio? What do you need to be thinking about? Join us for this episode of Payne Points of Wealth.
It’s Episode 120 and the pessimism party continues despite the fact the news just keeps coming in better than expected. Unemployment is at a 53-year low. Right now, we’ve got inflation continuing to come down and earnings better than expected. Could be a Goldilocks economy. But Wall Street doesn’t want you to think that. We’re going to get into it today.
On The Tipping Point, we’ve got a great guest today with Ryan’s friend Carrie Kerpen. She’s an entrepreneur who sold her business. We’re going to get really deep on the psychology of money.
It’s Episode 119 and economic growth continues, much to the chagrin of many Wall Street strategists. The economy continued to grow in the first quarter. Earnings season is upon us and earnings have been pretty good. Technology has been leading the way. Markets are going higher and the French stock market is leading all markets. So it’s crazy out there. We’re going to break it down for you today.
On The Tipping Point, we’re going to talk about variables that you need to factor in when it comes to you becoming financially independent.
It’s Episode 118 and inflation is coming down. We had the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) come down more than expected last week. Meanwhile, the labor market remains hot. Our vantage point of a soft landing is becoming more real by the moment. Recessionary fears are continuing to dwindle as investors are starting to put money back in the market.
We have a very special edition today. We have one of our favorite Wall Street strategists, Ed Yardeni, who has a research firm that we follow very, very closely. We're going to talk about Ed's viewpoint on the economy and the markets. Ed is one of the few optimists on Wall Street, there are not many of them. We are so happy to have him on the show. Join us for this episode of Payne Points of Wealth.
The market continues to go higher, despite a banking crisis. Interest rates are starting to come down. Things don’t seem as dire as once thought. We’ll give you our thoughts on what we see right now with the ten-year treasury at 3.5%. Markets inching higher throughout the year. What’s next in the economy? In the market? You’ll get our 2 cents.
On the Tipping Point, we have a very special guest and friend Chad Madden, an entrepreneur who had a liquidity event. He’s going to talk about the psychology of money, the thoughts, and the processes he went through to have that liquidity event. Things will be helpful for you with your journey to financial independence.
The Fed put is back, Uncle Jay Powell’s got your back. Every bank in the country, every deposit, is basically backed by the Fed, stabilizing the entire financial system. Is this just a band-aid to put on a bigger problem with the banking system? We’re going to talk about exactly where we see the banking system, and where we see the economy right now. Does this mean we’re going into recession or will the Fed start taking the foot off the pedal, stop raising interest rates and give us that soft landing we’ve been talking about?
On the Tipping Point, we will talk about reallocating your portfolio. Is it time to reevaluate your investment strategy?
We’ve seen some bank failures over the course of the last week and there are questions about systemic risk throughout the entire system. The Fed continues to be hawkish on interest rates. Is this the beginning of something bigger? A big economic downfall that we all need to prepare for? We are going to give you our thoughts on what we think is going to transpire, and how to position your portfolio.
On the Tipping Point, today, we’re going to talk about SECURE Act 2.0. There are huge tax benefits available to you that you might not know about. We’re going to give you the rundown to make sure that you’re on your path to financial independence.
There’s a tug-of-war going on in the economy right now. Inflation is stubborn. Not coming down as quickly as expected. Yet the job market remains hot as people are spending money at unexpectedly high rates. So what does this mean? We’ve got consumer spending, yet inflation is still high.
Is that the recipe for disaster? Well, we’re going to tell you, we think today on the show. On the Tipping Point today, we’re going to talk about questions you need to be asking yourself to make sure you’re on your path to financial independence
We’re in the midst of earnings season and 70% of companies have beat expectations, and that seems to be the theme this year. Whatever the economists and strategists told you was going to happen is not happening. Things are better than expected, just like we told you on this podcast. We’re going to tell you why everything is going better in the economy than everyone anticipated.
On the Tipping Point with Aaron Dessen, CFP® we’re talking about what you need to be doing right now with your money. Also, we go over reasons why some investors choose to DIY their financial plan rather than have a professional financial adviser.
recession
It’s episode 111 and the news continues to get better as we move into February. The Federal Reserve sounds like it might actually be open to a pivot sometime this year. Their hawkish policy looks like it may be over as inflation continues to come down. Interest rates continue to fall and earnings season hasn’t been amazing but hasn’t been that bad either. So questions about a recession are still a big question mark. Well, we’re going to talk about that today. We’re going to talk about questions you need to be asking yourself right now to make sure that you’re on your path to financial independence.
Don’t fight the Fed? Or, forget the Fed.This week Jerome Powell raised interest rates. He didn’t decrease interest rates. He didn’t pivot. The Fed increased interest rates and the market didn’t fight the Fed and it went up 5%. Don’t fight the Fed? Here’s a new term – forget the Fed.
The Bond Market seems to be forgetting the FedThe Fed keeps raising interest rates, but longer-term rates are falling. Markets are forward-looking. They’re not concerned about what’s happening right now and what the bond market’s been telling us for months is don’t believe the Fed. The Fed keeps saying that they’re going to keep rates higher for longer, yet longer-term interest rates kept going down. And as we like to say, the bond market’s a lot smarter than the Federal Reserve.
”The bond market's a lot smarter than the Federal Reserve.
Ryan PayneHuge bounce in disruptive technologiesWhether it is Tesla’s up big, Bitcoin keeps moving higher in the short term. So I guess the big question is is this the real deal or are we going back to big tech names, Bitcoin, Tesla, or is this just a dead cat bounce?
The Fed has flooded the market with liquidity
In the past, we’ve had the Federal Reserve flooding the market with liquidity. Interest rates were at zero. That’s when you get rapid speculation where people invest in things like pet rocks and cryptocurrencies and disruptive, innovative technology without any earnings. I’ve seen this movie before. Blue chip, good quality companies are a place to be.
”Don't be fooled. Don't buy pet rights, not stocks and don't buy innovative technology.
Bob PayneWhen we look at new portfolios we see most are underweighted to the global markets.That’s where the best opportunities are going to be in the next 5 to 10 years. If you’re going to buy tech, buy some tech around the world because if you look at other stock markets, again, they’re just so cheap relative to the U.S.
”Look at like Amazon, it still trades at 50 times forward earnings. Meanwhile, you can buy the Chinese version Alibaba, it only trades for 14 times forward earnings.
Ryan PayneThe Tipping Point:Basic Planning Questions To Ask YourselfQuestion #1Will I really spend less later in life?Payne Point:In our experience after seeing thousands of portfolios, the answer is absolutely not. When you factor in inflation and health care costs, you will likely spend more. It’s something you want to account for in your projections when doing your financial plan.
”The biggest fear anyone has is running out of money in retirement.
Bob PayneQuestion #2How are you going to fill in your income gap in retirement, after your paycheck stops?Payne Point:You need a diversified portfolio that will generate a steady income. For a lot of the new clients that we brought on in the last year or so, the biggest issue was they didn’t realize that they were overweighted to technology and a lot of these disruptive mega-cap growth stocks. And then when the shoe dropped we saw portfolios down 30 – 40% last year. But the problem is you only realize it last year when the market was going down. And it’s just so critical to manage that risk.
”Cash-flow is king when you're in retirement.
Bob PayneQuestion #3Are my finances organized in one place?Payne Point:Generally, most people do not have their financial information in one place. Keeping all of your account information such as passwords, wills, RMD information, and tax returns organized in one location, like our e-money portal, will make managing a more effective and efficient portfolio easier – for you and for your heirs.
”I have 150 clients and every year a handful end up with a 401k they forgot about or an IRA they had in some firm.. they always find some account they forgot about.
Chris PayneQuestion #4What would my tax picture look like in retirement?Payne Point:The more you project out into the future, the more proactive moves you can make when it comes to taxes.
Small tweaks we make to our portfolio with taxes, whether it’s converting money to Roth IRA before you have to take money out of your IRA is when the government forces you to do it. And turning that into tax-free income over your life and then your heirs can inherit that money tax-free.
Hidden Facts of Finance Since 1970, there have been 20 government shutdowns related to the debt ceiling, and they always have been sorted out.Over the past decade, the median net worth of the top ten billionaires has nearly tripled from 39 billion to 115 billion. In fact, the first billionaire to pass the $100 billion threshold was Jeff Bezos in 2018 when he took the top.Jimi Hendrix was billed as the overall headliner at Woodstock in 1969 and commanded the highest paycheck of all the performers. Hendrix was paid $18,000 for his appearance at Woodstock, which was the equivalent of making $125,000 today.
It’s episode 110 and the economic data continue to come in strong. GDP growth for the 4th quarter was better than expected. We’re seeing earnings growth relatively strong for the 4th quarter and guidance is not falling off a cliff. The data is coming in much better than what’s been anticipated on Wall Street and the market is following suit. We’re in a bull market. Prices are going higher. But is this a fakeout? Do you need to get to the sidelines right now? Is the economy ready to fall off a cliff? Or is this the real deal?
Contrarian CostanzaIn one episode of Seinfeld, George figured that every decision in his life he made was wrong. He decided I’m going to do the opposite. I’m going to become the contrarian Costanza. So the George Costanza strategy is to do the opposite of what you think you should do. Or what the experts are telling you to do. In terms of the market, it worked out pretty well following that strategy over the last couple of months.
Conventional wisdom turns out to be excessive pessimismConventional wisdom over the last year was the Federal Reserve is going to have to get so aggressive, they are going to have to kneecap the economy and bring it down. It turns out that was more like excessive pessimism.
The Payne view is always a bit contrarian. Last year is a perfect example. We had every strategist, and every economist extremely negative on the economy, extremely negative on the market. But if you’re diversified, last year you were down around 10%. It’s not that big a deal. And meanwhile, now markets are off to the races. And if you were sitting in cash, you try to time it. You’ve put yourself in a bad position now.
”If you were diversified last year you were down around 10%. It's not that big a deal. And meanwhile, now markets are off to the races.
Ryan PayneGermany is another example. Germany was the poster child of the worst place to be last year. They had an energy crisis because Russia invaded Ukraine. Yet Germany is up 40% since September. How can that possibly be? You have to be able to have the fortitude to invest when things are down and when the optimism is not there.
Most of us project the future based on our most recent experience. And as you know, the year went by, the news got more down, and the market got more volatile.
Anticipation is mitigation. Corporate CEOs last year were worried about a slowdown, just like everyone else. So what do they do? They got proactive very, very quickly. They start to rewrite their business in anticipation of things slowing down. So all this proactive activity is happening to make sure that their balance sheets stay in check. And that’s why you always see the surprises in the positive because that anticipation is already happening as we’re worrying about things, people are actually taking action.
As the talking heads are telling us that the economy is slowing they’re starting to reduce their earnings estimates. So when the estimates are met with the actual earnings, the market’s not surprised by that.
Bear market illusion. To some, it seems these bear markets last longer in their mind than they actually do. They do things like lock themselves into a 4% CD. Well, the market’s up 6% now, and you have to wait a whole 12 months to get that 4%. And you’ve missed that move in the market. So it’s amazing how quickly times can change and markets can change.
Emerging markets are up 10% as we’re recording this. You don’t get that return back. You’re not going to make any money unless you’re invested in the market.
”Your boat's not going to go anywhere unless your sails are up.
Chris Payne$5 trillion sitting in money market funds earning 4%. But what happens when you don’t get 4%? And that 4% is over 12 month period. You’ve already missed the one-month period where you’d have a 50% better return.
Think of the FOMO as the market rallies. With 5 trillion sitting in cash, while you’re starting to see markets catch a fire. All these private equity firms sitting with all this cash and these big banks that have to put the money to work, or it goes back to their investors and they want to put it to work.
Company buybacks. Chevron just raised its dividend. They announced a $75 billion buyback. Exxon came out with a similar buyback. So there’s there is a lot of cash on the sidelines. And, the question is, where is that money going to go in the future? And the pressure, from professional money managers, from institutions, from hedge funds, and from individuals, it’s just going to continue.
”Markets operate by discounting the current environment and looking to the future.
Bob PayneThe Tipping Point:Lessons you can learn from last yearLesson #1Inflation and Your Financial PlanPayne Point:inflation is real and you’ve got to account for it in your financial plan It’s been in the headlines for the last year because especially since the Federal Reserve completely dropped the ball in not recognizing that inflation wasn’t transitory initially. We’re dealing with 40-year high inflation than we’ve had to deal with in 40 years.
During the 40-year period, we still had inflation at 2%. That still means a huge cost of living increase over your lifetime.
Long-range planning should include inflation. Inflation is insidious, it’s hidden, but it’s real. A good rule of thumb we always use is you’re going to have to double what you need to live on every 20 years. And most of us will be retired for up to 30 years plus. So you really have to account for your expenses doubling in retirement. And most of us don’t do those calculations.
”A good rule of thumb we always use is you're going to have to double what you need to live on every 20 years.
Ryan PayneLesson #2Not knowing how much risk you have in your portfolioPayne Point:Many were overweighted in Tech. For a lot of the new clients that we brought on in the last year or so, the biggest issue was they didn’t realize that they were overweighted to technology, they were overweighted to a lot of these disruptive mega-cap growth stocks. And then when the shoe dropped we saw portfolios down 30 – 40% last year. But the problem is you only realize it last year when the market was going down. And it’s just so critical to manage that risk.
”Risk is only seen in hindsight.
Bob PayneYou have to expect the unexpected. You can’t have foresight for black swan events and unexpected market sell-offs. Look what happened in 2020 when we had the pandemic collapse – 35% in two days.
”Ignorance isn't bliss. Hope is not a tactic. You should have your portfolio thoroughly evaluated to make sure that you're covering all your asset classes and not just investing in one thing.
Chris PayneHidden Facts of Finance While the S&P 500 price declined by 19.78% in 2022, S&P dividends went up by 10.82% in 2022. The increase was higher than inflation and since 1926, dividends have contributed approximately 32% of the total return of the S&P 500. While capital appreciation contributed to 68% all the way through 2021.Canadian Labor shortages are so severe that the government has announced plans to admit nearly 1.4 million immigrants over the next three years.Ken Griffin, Citadel hedge fund cranked out a record 16 billion in profit for clients last year, topping John Paulson’s bet against the subprime mortgages in 2007 that was described as the greatest trade ever. The top 20 hedge funds collectively generated 22.4 billion in profit after fees.
It’s episode 109, the first podcast of the year and there is a lot going on right now. Europe, emerging markets going through the roof. Interest rates dropping like a rock. Yet the Fed says they’re going to keep rates higher for longer.
Who’s right? The bond market or the Fed? Every economist telling you we’re still going into recession. Yet employment is strong. Inflation is coming down. Well, we’re going to give you our 2 cents on everything today, give you a blueprint for how to look at the economy, and how to look at the stock market this year. And we got tons of questions from you, the listener over this holiday season.
We’re going to answer your questions today to make sure you’re on your path to financial independence.
Don’t fight the Fed? Or, don’t trust the Fed.The oldest adage on Wall Street is don’t fight the Fed. But it seems like everything they say the opposite is of what’s happening or they’ve done the opposite. Or, they don’t always follow through on what they say they’re going to do.
The Fed has been reactionaryIn the face of good economic data, the Fed says we’re going to raise rates and keep rates higher for longer. Analysts and strategists are believing it is gospel. A year ago they didn’t believe anything the Fed said.
”I’m not listening to the Fed. I'm listening to the bond market.
Bob PaynePrices have been dropping. Oil, copper, and corn prices have come down a lot. Inflation is dropping. And we somehow believe that the Fed isn’t going to capitulate and lower rates?
Look at the markets, it’s the difference between reality and expectation. That’s where prices are. And misery loves company. So when you have 60% of the economists predicting a recession, it’s comfortable to be there. You don’t want to be the outlier.
It’s not just the Fed. The strategists and analysts talking about recession. I think we’re being a little harsh to the Fed. They’re not the only ones. They’re in good company. Let’s talk about the strategists, the analysts, and the economists that have said that we’re going into recession. But what does the data say?
Positive signs for the economy. We’ve got a strong labor market. We have inflation coming down, Wages are staying strong. But it is remarkable with all the economic data being relatively strong, professionals and experts are coming to the same conclusion…Recession.
The experts were wrong about Europe. Look at the best-performing part of the portfolio year to date. And the last six months happen to be in Europe and emerging markets. 70% of the markets around the world outperformed the U.S. We’ve heard the conventional wisdom, “Oh, don’t put your money in Europe, don’t put it in China. China is never going to come out of lockdown.”
The experts were wrong about China. The second-largest economy in the world, and they’re never going to come out of lockdown. They are coming out of lockdown and it’s very good for the global economy. Who would have thought that? And if you read the news last year, nobody was talking about that.
It’s episode 108, the last episode of the year. And let’s face it, everything’s interesting. Into the end of the year. Markets are extremely volatile. They’re not letting up. We have the most volatility since 2008. Are we going to a recession next year? The debate continues as Labor continues to be strong. The Fed keeps talking tough when it comes to Fed policy.
The big question is what are earnings going to look like next year? We’re going to about positioning your portfolio for the new year ahead. On the tipping point today, we’re going to talk about what financial products would you want in your stocking this Christmas and what financial products you definitely want to do without.
It’s episode 107 of Payne Points of Wealth and economic data continues to come in relatively strong. Meanwhile, inflation is starting to plummet, whether it's oil prices, lumber costs, supply chains easing. We're starting to see some relief within the economy. Is this a good thing? Is this a bad thing or is this just a fake out? As Wall Street continues to tell us the economy is about to fall off a cliff? On the Tipping Point, we're going to talk about your EGO and why it's ruining your financial independence plan.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* Mortgage rates are coming down [1:28] * The Dow Jones did 20% over two months [2:05] * They keep saying it's a foregone conclusion that we're going to have a recession [2:24] * The banks are making a huge profit on your cash right now [3:50] * Investor sentiment is really negative right now [5:45] * Latin America is hot, the 14% for the year. [6:50] * The Tipping Points [11:50] * No one can beat the market. [12:40] * Hidden Facts of Finance [30:40]
This week on the tipping point: Your ego is ruining your financial independence plan.And I would say that one of the biggest mistakes investors make when you're trying to plan for your financial independence is you let your ego get in the way. And nothing makes for a worse financial plan than letting your ego dictate a lot of your financial decisions.
There's never been a company or an individual that's been able to consistently outperform the market. But what do people do? They've got to try and prove that because "My ego says I can do it. I'm going to go out there and underperform, even lose money trying."
This week’s hidden facts of finance* A recent survey shows 84% of companies are planning to hire in 2023. * Random length lumber for January delivery settled at $423.80 per 1000 board feet on November 29. That's down 63% for the year. * In 1976, the Eagles released Hotel California selling 32 million copies worldwide, making it the sixth best-selling album of all time.
See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
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What's up! It's episode 106 of Payne Points of Wealth and the economy is looking a-okay! We've got the market rebounding into the end of the year. We've got wages going up, unemployment still low, and inflation is coming down. Are those economists and strategists on Wall Street actually, right? Are we going to fall off a cliff? Are we going to recession? Well, we're going to give you our viewpoint on that. We'll also give you our 2 cents on exactly where the economy's going. On the Tipping Point, we've got a special guest, Anthony O'Neill, a debt specialist. He's going to talk about money, his life, and relationship to money. It's a great show! Check it out.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in...* Missed opportunity in the international markets [2:01] * Spending is still strong [7:18] * The Tipping Point [9:14] * Anthony’s background with money [10:19] * The lack of financial education [15:09] * Anthony’s mindset when it comes to wealth building [19:31] * If you're throwing a Hail Mary pass you might be in trouble. [25:37] * Hidden Facts of Finance [30:40]
It's hard to be an investorYou go back to 2008 when we started Payne Capital Management, we believed it was one of the greatest bull markets in history. We were right on the doorstep of it. Everybody was pretty negative, especially in the US market. Now it's going full circle. Now everybody's positive in the US market and negative in the international markets. They don't see the opportunity. But it's smacking you right in the face.
Who doesn't know that Taiwan could be invaded by China, who doesn't know that the US dollar is hurting non-US assets, and who doesn't know that there's an energy crisis in Europe? Meanwhile, most of the world doesn't know right now that in the UK, the British stock market, the Footsie, is outperforming the S&P, the DOW, and the Nasdaq. It's wild to think that England has gone positive for the year because when you look at the headlines their political system is a mess and they've got higher inflation than we do. But if we all know it then it's already priced into the market. It's kind of like this, it doesn't look good in Europe. Yeah, we know. But the market's already accounted for that.
This week on the tipping point: Anthony O’Neal dept specialistYou'll need to check out the episode to hear all the wisdom dropped by Anthony O’Neal but here's a little teaser…
"I believe that if you aim at nothing you'll hit that all the time. I believe that the caliber of your future will be determined by the caliber of goals and decisions that you make today. If you want your future to be bright, if you want your future to be wealthy, solid, fruitful, and joyful then you have to make fruitful and joyful goals and decisions today. It's important.
When I branched out on my own about two years ago, I said, "Where am I going? What do I want to accomplish?" My very first thought is I want to be intentional, I want to be impactful, and I want to be influential. Those three things will then produce income. So that's the main thing, are my goals intentional? Are my goals, if I accomplish them, will they be impactful to others? Will it be influential? And if the answer is yes to all three of those, then income will come. You can't anywhere without goals or without a vision. Really more so vision than goals when you think about it. Because goals mean that once you hit that goal, that comes to a stop. So I love goals but also, personally, I want a vision that is ongoing that is never going to stop. I'm going to keep going as long as I'm living on this earth."
This week’s hidden facts of finance* Apple has outperformed its peers by a wide margin this year. Apple is now worth more than Microsoft and META put together combined. * There have been around 33,000 tech layoffs since the beginning of November. However, the economy generated something like 261,000 jobs in October and 200,000 in November. Simple math, more jobs are being created than are being lost. This doesn't sound very recessionary. * 10,000 baby boomers reach age 65 every day according to the US Census Bureau. And by 2030, all baby boomers will be at least 65. The Boomer labor force has been declining by 2.2 million on average each year since 2010 or about 5,900 people daily are leaving the workforce. We think this is a problem. * The US just passed 1 trillion music streams this year. The first time that milestone had been reached in a single year. That's about 960,000 years of streaming music so far in 2022.
Resources & People MentionedAnthony O’Neal debt specialist
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What's up! It's episode 105 of Payne Points of Wealth and the economy continues to chug along. We had retail spending up even with record-high inflation. We're starting to see on the ground floor inflation coming down, and unemployment is still strong, yet every economist and strategist still say we're going to fall off a cliff. We're going to address that today. We've seen a huge rally in the global markets over the course of the last couple of weeks, specifically internationally. Should you be playing that in your portfolio? Well, we're gonna break it down for you. Check it out.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Are we going to see a healthy end-of-the-year rally? [1:04] * The market is smarter than everybody! [4:52] * The ‘Yeah…but’ market [7:29] * The Tipping Point [11:59] * Paying down debt [14:55] * Do you readjust your portfolio? [16:04] * Hidden Facts of Finance [18:58]
Emerging markets are trending! Right now we're talking about how we don't know what's going to happen next, we don't know what's going on. But one thing I do know is what we don't expect is what's going to happen. We've seen this with what I call the pandemic hangover trade. We've seen disruptive technology, and it's still getting slaughtered here, even as markets are recovering, and I think one of the most obvious trends in the world is emerging markets. You look at the emerging markets right now, they've been growing faster than the US in terms of profits growth since like 1995, yet their stock market is in the same place it was in 2007. So there are a lot of places you can be allocating your capital right now that are dirt cheap that are poised to rise in the future.
This week on the tipping point: When to take action and when not to When it comes to financial planning, sometimes it's good to take action, but other times it's better to maybe just hold back and let things play out. So let's talk about when you should be taking action and when you should not take action when it comes to your financial independence plan.
A point of confusion, when it comes to action or no action, is eliminating debt. It's actually a trickier conversation than it used to be because at the beginning of this year your mortgage would typically be your largest debt and you were getting a 2-3% rate depending on how long you're going out. Now you're paying like 6-7% and it really becomes a portfolio decision and with rates so much higher right now, I would say unless you're locked into a lower rate it might be better to start paying off debt and as opposed to mortgaging, maybe just paying out right if you have cash because that's a real hard spread to get over the long term if you're starting to borrow at like 6-7%.
Another big
This week’s hidden facts of finance * India will have the highest growth rate of all countries over the next 10 years, there are also opportunities in parts of the Middle East, and North Africa, although capital markets in these places are still very early in development, you gotta have some money around the world. * What do FTX, Vroom, Draft Kings, and Coinbase all have in common besides the fact they're down 62 to 98% so far this year? They all spent $6.5 million per 30 seconds for Super Bowl ads just less than a year ago. * Since the inception date of 8/1/2001 CNBC's Jim Cramer's Action Alerts Plus portfolio returned a cumulative 210%. Compare that to the S&P 500's 398%, nearly 50% better.
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What's up! It's episode 103 of Payne Points of Wealth and the FED just doesn't want us to have a good time. J Powell, again, talking extremely hawkish in its comments as we're recording this. However, we've got a hot job market, unemployment is still staying extremely low, close to a 50-year low. We just keep adding jobs and wages continue to go up as this economy is still on solid footing. Should we be rooting for a bad economy or rooting for a good economy? Well, we're going to give you our view. On the Tipping Point, we're going to talk about end-of-the-year tax and financial moves you can make to make sure you're on solid footing.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * The little boy who cries wolf [1:10] * Why stock equities are the ultimate hedge against inflation [4:41] * Time in the market not timing the market [7:23] * The Tipping Point [11:30] * Hidden Facts of Finance [30:31]
Getting paid to wait It's time in the markets, not timing the market. Let's just take the Federal Reserve's conference call the other day, in the course of a half hour the market went up 400 points from what was perceived as dovish comments then closed 500 points down. That's virtually a thousand-point swing, a thousand points in a period of two hours! You're gonna invest in that mess? The whole idea is that this short-term volatility tells you nothing. Trying to game it or time it is so futile, it's ridiculous. Meanwhile, when you have a diversified portfolio, you're making money every day. Your dividends accrue, your interest is accrued, you earn it, it's yours, and you get paid to wait!
This week on the tipping point: Pro Tips for Tax Optimization It's the end of the year. It's coming up on tax time so this is the time to really look at your portfolio. We thought it would be a good time to talk about some of the pro moves that we use with our clients at our boutique firm Payne Capital Management, some of the strategies we use at the end of the year that our listeners can apply to their portfolio to optimize their portfolio for their financial independence.
One of the things that we like to do towards the end of the year, especially with a volatile year as we've had, are tax swaps. Over time investments will have a lot of embedded unrealized capital gains so whenever we can do some tax loss harvesting it saves folks a lot of money on the back end. This may be the biggest year ever for tax loss harvesting.
A few other tax strategies that are great at the end of the year that no one looks at are Roth conversions, charitable contributions from retirement accounts, and making sure that you're maxing out your retirement plan contribution.
This week’s hidden facts of finance * Alibaba holding group, a data-driven colossus in retail, logistics, lending, and more has generated 89 billion in free cash flow over the past five years. The equivalent in the US would be Amazon which has only generated 75 billion over the last five years. Yet, its shares are lower than their debut price back in 2014. Alibaba's market value of $168 billion is just a sliver of Amazon's trillion dollars. There might be some opportunity in China * Since March gold has slid 18.3%, far worse than global stocks which are only down 8%. Gold isn't a hedge, not against inflation, stock weakness, or even war. It's a commodity. * Americans average financial assets amounted to 155,000 back in 2008. At the end of 2021 just last year, assets climbed to $349,000 on average, an increase of 125%. It's not only Americans who can look back on a long decade of rich monetary blessings, even around the world people are getting richer. * 56 years after its original release the Beetles Revolver, which is one of the greatest albums of all time, could be at #1 on the Billboard 200 album charts again thanks to the new stereo remix of the album.
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Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris * http://PayneCM.com * Follow on Twitter * Follow on Facebook * Follow on LinkedIn * Subscribe on YouTube * Follow on Instagram
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What's up! It's episode 102 of Payne Points of Wealth and tech is dead! Our prophecy has come true. We've warned you about tech for a long time. Meanwhile, markets are rallying hard here and the economy is actually growing despite what all those economists have been telling you. Is this just a big fake-out? Is this a bear market rally? Are we going into a big recession next year? We're going to give you our 2¢ on that today. We're going to tell you exactly how to play all the market moves and how to look at the economy right now correctly. We're also going to talk about financial planning, physical training, and what they have in common. We've got a great show. Check it out!
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Economists are so sus! [1:06] * Is the S&P overweighted in tech? [4:01] * You make the most $$ in a bear market [7:12] * The Tipping Point [12:08] * There is no wisdom on the internet [13:11] * Help to do the right thing when it feels wrong [16:03] * Hidden Facts of Finance [21:52]
Are you missing a rally because you’re overweight in mega-cap tech stocks? If you look at the S&P 500, it accounts for something like 25% but the entire weighting is only in six or seven stocks. That's the problem, the S&P is so grossly overweight in tech that you're not benefiting from this rally. What blew our minds looking at the numbers this past week is that old-school boring value stocks like JP Morgan, Coca-Cola, and Pepsi are only down 5%, but tech growth stocks are down 30%. That's a 25% spread!
This tells you that right now it's not about being in or out of the market, it's about having the right portfolio. If you're diversified you're not down that much this year and that's the whole point. You have to spread your risk out. The overall market is telling us that some parts of the economy aren't doing great like tech, but some parts of the economy are doing really, really well. It's like we are experiencing rolling recessions, not an all-or-none proposition.
This week on the tipping point: Financial Fitness Trainers There are a lot of principles that we can apply from the fitness world to your retirement or financial independence plan. What we've learned in our boutique firm, Payne Capital Management, is that our role as financial advisors is a lot like being a personal financial trainer.
The similarities are remarkable. You definitely work out better when you have a personal trainer. You get in shape faster and you have less injury because they get you to focus on every part of your body. They don't limit you to what you would limit yourself to. That's what happens when you're investing. "Well, I'm not gonna invest in that area because I lost money there once." or "I'm a brave investor, I'm going to roll the dice and go a hundred percent in crypto or the arc fund." You make a lot of mistakes because you don't know what you don't know.
This week’s hidden facts of finance * John Deere and Company has 50 autonomous tractors in its global testing fleet but intends to ramp up commercial production next year. * Money funds are now paying a lot more than bank savings accounts, which yield an average of 1.09% according to bankrate.com. Fidelity's tax-exempt money market fund may be the best bet if you're in a high tax bracket, it pays 1.75%, which is the equivalent of getting 3.43% if you're in a high tax bracket. That's not bad for money just sitting in cash. * Renewable energy could account for 60% of power generation in Western Europe and 35% in the US by the year 2030. Up from 35% and 23% today, respectively. Ironically, high fossil fuel prices are the biggest reason that energy producers have the ability to fund the energy transition to cleaner alternatives. * Schwab generated 132 million off money market funds in the third quarter up from 29 million a year ago when the company had to issue waivers to compensate for ultra-low money market yields. It's incredible how much yields have gone up in the last couple of months.
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What's up! It's episode 101 of Payne Points of Wealth and earning season is not so bad. Bank earnings looking relatively strong. Everything's still in the backdrop of what is the FED going to do. Are they going to keep raising interest rates? Are they going to pause? Are they going to start lowering interest rates? Nobody really knows. Meanwhile, the market's like a rollercoaster ride up one day and down the next. It can't really find any footing and uncertainty is high. Russia is still in invasion of Ukraine. Sounds like Xi Jinping is the ultimate ruler forever of China. It's a crazy world. We're going to give you our thoughts on exactly what's going on in the economy, what's going on in the stock market, the ying and yangs, everyday moves, and how to play it. On the Tipping Point today we're going to talk about how every investor on Wall Street gets treated the same. No matter how much money you have, it's bad. We're going to explain why. Check it out.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * What’s going on in the mind of J. Powell? [1:24] * Bad is good and good is bad [4:21] * You gotta be in to win [8:22] * The Tipping Point [12:57] * The dirty secret of our industry [14:19] * The sexiest investments [17:19] * Hidden Facts of Finance [22:35]
Nobody can predict what's unknowable We're at a point in the market where good news is bad news and bad news is good news and then there's a little mixed bag of both. You have a GDP number coming out this week and some economists say it may be very, very strong. They've been a little weaker than they were last quarter, but they're still positive. Then you get these rip-your-face-off rallies from companies when they come in with really decent earnings. Lamb research came in the other day with decent earnings, really good earnings stock going from 300 to 370 in one week. The same thing happened with Lockheed Martin.
The problem with trying to time the market is that you can get on the sidelines and wait for the good news, but the good news happens, you can't get back in. So it's one of these cases where we're in a corrective phase of the market and it's going to stay a corrective phase until the FED stops. That may very well be happening right now but nobody can predict what's unknowable.
This week on the tipping point: Wall Street treats every investor the same We've been looking at a lot of cases over the course of the last couple weeks at our boutique firm, Payne Capital Management, and we see every strategy under the sun. As we analyze portfolios, we look at all the underlying investments and the thing that blows my mind is it doesn't matter if you have $10 million or $10,000 Wall Street treats you the same. They sell you the same high-cost tax-inefficient products. It doesn't even matter how much money you have. It's kind of criminal and it's important as you build your net worth to make sure you're not constantly being treated like a retail investor.
It all comes down to the fiduciary rule. When President Obama proposed the fiduciary rule for the financial services industry, it was amazing. Banks, Wall Street firms, and insurance companies all fought it because they don't want to act in the investor's best interest, they wanna act in a shareholder's best interest. If you're ever going to invest with a wirehouse or a bank and insurance company, it's better to buy their stock because they're working in the best interest of the shareholder.
This week’s hidden facts of finance * Elon Musk's purchase of Twitter for $54.20 a share is at a price that is double the current valuation of Twitter's main rivals Meta and Snap. In line with Meta and Snap Musk should be paying more like $24 per share for Twitter. No wonder why he fought so hard to get out of this deal. * The current rise in mortgage rates has real consequences. The $1,900 a month payment on a $450,000 home with a 30-year mortgage at 3% can only support now a $300,000 loan at six and a half percent interest rates. * The only two bands that have surpassed the $2 billion sales mark for concert ticket sales in their history are the Rolling Stones and U2. * Stock prices aren't great at predicting recessions. The market provided a 1 month advance notice for the 2001 recession. It was 3 months late in its warning of the 1973 recession and 8 months late in the 2008 recession. False warnings came in 1962, 1977, and 1987. Sounds like the market's not really great at predicting economic downfall.
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What's up? It's episode 100 of Payne Points of Wealth. It's hard to believe it's been two years already! We've got unemployment still at the lowest levels in 50 years. We've got wages going up, and we've got an employment market that just won't cool off. What's the FED going to do? Will they finally pivot or are they ready to take this economy off a cliff? Are we going to a deep recession depression? We're going to give you our viewpoint on exactly how to play the economy, play the strong dollar, play the higher interest rates, play the conflict in Russia. There are so many issues, I can't name them all. On the Tipping Point we're going to talk about financial planning red flags. You're on your path to financial independence so what red flags do you need to avoid at all costs to make sure you stay on your path to reach your goals?
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What's up? It's episode 99 of Payne Points of Wealth and there is no good news. Inflation is not coming down as quickly as expected. The FED continues to talk tough and interest rates are skyrocketing. There is a threat of nuclear war in Eastern Europe. As usual, we're going to break it down for you today and talk about our views on where everything is going. Are we going to have this huge recession that we're hearing about week after week? On the Tipping Point today we're going to talk about roulette, chess, and poker and what they have to do with your financial life. Go have a listen!
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * If it weren’t for mistakes the FED wouldn’t make any decisions [1:03] * Only things going up are yields and inflation [3:51] * Having a Revenge of the Nerds portfolio [6:55] * The Tipping Point [10:40] * To pay taxes or not to pay? [13:55] * Playing stock picking roulette [17:27] * Hidden Facts of Finance [20:58]
Finally seeing real, positive, yields! The only thing going up this year has been inflation and short-term money market yields. As financial advisors and planners, we're in a position where we have portfolios that we can actually sink our teeth into.
You have forward earnings at about 16 times, which means stocks are valued where they are in the average PE ratio. You have bond yields that are significant, where there’s a decent return in our intermediate bond portfolio and there's great opportunity. We were more concerned in January when we saw interest rates at zero than we are today. Now we know we can generate the income, generate the total return, that we need to help all of our clients overcome unexpected inflation and taxes to achieve their financial goals.
We don't wanna have a portfolio that's cool. We want to have a portfolio that's like the revenge of the nerds, and that is the kind of market we have now! Yes, having bonds that come due, how boring. I love it! Having dividend stocks that increase their dividend every year. How boring. I love it! That's where we have to be. The key is you have to take action. If you have losses, do some tax swaps because you want to put money in the loss bank. We are taught as children to put money in the piggy bank, put some money in the loss bank, there will be gains in the future.
This week on the tipping point: Chess, poker, or roulette? Today we compare some different strategies that we see deployed in the financial world to chess, poker, and roulette. Rollette is basically luck and how the dice roll. If it's chess, it's a real strategy. And poker we'd say is both a little bit of luck and a little bit of strategy.
The first strategy that we see deployed a lot in our industry is market timing. Another strategy that we see is deciding how much money to convert from an IRA to a Roth IRA where the money is tax-free for the rest of your life. The other one that comes up, especially when we're doing our annual reviews, is deciding on when to retire. What's the date in the future that you're going to definitively say, okay, I'm done, I'm going to live off my portfolio. The last strategy we compare is going to be picking stocks. Which of these strategies is comparable to which game? Check out the episode to find out!
This week’s hidden facts of finance * At some point in late 2022, the 8 billionth human being will enter the world ushering in a new milestone for humanity. In just 48 years, the world population has doubled in size, jumping from 4 to 8 billion people. * 12% of bosses surveyed by Microsoft say workers are just as productive working remotely compared to 87% of workers who argue they are more productive. Sounds like bosses want you back in the office. * The original handwritten lyrics for David Bowie's Starman have been sold to an unidentified Aussie bidder at auction for $224,000. That's a lot of money for a bunch of lyrics written on a piece of paper.
Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris * http://PayneCM.com * Follow on Twitter * Follow on Facebook * Follow on LinkedIn * Subscribe on YouTube * Follow on Instagram
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What's up? It's episode 98 of Payne Points of Wealth and it's officially apocalypse now! The FED will not relent with interest rates. They're going to be more hawkish than ever. It seems like bad news comes on the installment plan, Putin is looking to double down on his war in Ukraine. Is this the end? Is everything going to fall off a cliff? We're going to give you our view today, we're going to tell you exactly what we think you should be doing right now with your money to make sure that you're in the best position given so much uncertainty. You, awesome podcast listeners, have been asking a lot of questions so on the Tipping Point we are going to answer some of those. You can't miss episode 98.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * The stock market isn’t a video game [1:08] * Two things you can never discount [4:18] * Being properly prepared for a difficult year [8:12] * The Tipping Point [10:20] * Having ETFs in a taxable account [11:31] * The problem with a total market ETF [15:03] * Hidden Facts of Finance [18:37]
The death of the consumer is greatly exaggerated There are two things that get discounted way too much when it comes to being an investor.
First is American business. Even this year, as we've seen supply chains that are a mess, inflation's been a mess but companies have been able to navigate it relatively well. We've seen more surprises in the positive, not the negative, when it comes to things like earnings.
The second thing that you can't discount is the American's ability to spend. I don't care what anybody says, if you look at retail sales last month, even with 8% inflation, retail sales were up. People were still spending and not just on necessities. They were going to restaurants, they were buying clothes. The bottom line is the death of the consumer is always greatly exaggerated.
This week on the tipping point: Listener Q&A Our industry tends to come with plenty of cookie-cutter advice so we get a lot of questions because our expertise lies in the planning component of managing wealth. At PCM we focus on customized financial planning. Well, we have a new place where you can submit your questions and we'll answer them here right on the show. Head over to bebullish.com and ask us anything you'd like to hear us talk about on the show.
Today we are answering two questions that have to do with ETFs. The first is from John asking if we recommend ETFs or exchange-traded funds with an expense of 0.25% or even 0.39%? The second question is from Brian who asks if the S&P is so highly weighted with FANG stocks, what's another good total market ETF to invest in during a period of rising rates? Listen now to hear our answers to these great questions!
This week’s hidden facts of finance * Since 1926 the S&P 500 was positive 71 of those 96 years. On a probability basis, the market goes up 74% of the time. That's pretty good odds. * According to bank rate.com, the national average yield on a savings account is a poultry 0.13%. Ouch. Meanwhile, one-year treasury bond pays over 4%. * Pink Floyd's, The Dark Side Of The Moon, hit number one on the Billboard Album Chart for exactly one week in 1973. It has since gone on to sell 45 million copies and has spent 960 weeks on the charts.
Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
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What's up! It's episode 97 of Payne Points of Wealth and markets are melting down. The fear is real, but could this fear go from fear to FOMO? We're going to discuss exactly what's going on. As we're recording this FedEx saw its stock drop 20%, and the CEO thinks that the world is going into a global recession. We might have a different point of view. We'll talk about that. On the Tipping Point today, we're going to talk about some of the most significant strategy mistakes that Wall Street loves to push on you that you should avoid at all costs to make sure you stay on your path to financial independence.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * What side of the rip of your face rally will you be on? [1:25] * Is it light at the end of the tunnel or a train? [3:52] * Time to load up on the municipal bond market [8:15] * The Tipping Point [11:21] * Are you taking actions that you'll regret forever? [14:09] * Hidden Facts of Finance [18:53]
Betting on a sure thing? Is it time to load up on the municipal bond market? The way these governments keep spending money on state, local, and federal levels it's only a matter of time before they try to jack up our tax rates again. We've got to look at the advantages of tax-free income.
First of all, you want to be certain that you have a portfolio with permits and definitions. We want to know what we're making and when our money comes due. But when you look at the equivalent yield of a tax-free bond right now, in some cases, depending on your state income tax, you're getting anywhere from a 5 - 8% return. How much return do you need to achieve all your lifetime goals? If you can do it with more certainty, why not?
This week on the tipping point: Strategy mistakes During times when it's very volatile and uncertain in the markets, like right now, there are a lot of strategies that Wall Street loves to sell you. We know from experience that they just don't work. We can't time the market and a lot of people tend to project the future based on their most recent experience. When there are all-time record highs, like the markets just had this past January, nobody wants to panic out. You only want to panic or time the market when the market's are down and you feel like it will only continue to get worse.
The problem is you end up taking actions that you'll regret forever. You wouldn't believe how many folks out there have liquidated their portfolio and gone into something like an annuity. We've been analyzing more annuities the past three months than ever. It's kind of like going back into the arms of an ex, it feels comfortable, it feels good, but the reality is you broke up for a reason. You're not going to get what you're looking for from the relationship!
This week’s hidden facts of finance * Wedbush Securities estimates that there are now a billion iPhones worldwide, 240 million of which are at least 3-1/2 years old. This may explain why Apple earnings are expected to continue creeping higher by single-digit percentages in the years ahead. * We think of meme stocks as something unique, but the 1960s were called the Go-go 60s' for a reason. The Nifty 50, the glamor stocks, the concept stocks, the conglomerates, and the gunslinger fund managers who touted them were rock stars. When the Nifty 50 expired in the early 70s' they had sky-high valuations that rival anything we've seen today with Xerox trading at 49 times forward earnings, Avon at 65 times forward earnings, and Polaroid at 90 times forward earnings. History may not repeat, but markets are made up of people and they certainly do. * Dividends have accounted for 40% of stock market returns since 1930 and 54% during decades when inflation has been high like today. When inflation has been high, the stocks that have increased their dividends the most have outperformed the overall market. Dividend payments help make the stock market returns less volatile. * The average German household is paying nearly 13 times more for power than in January of 2020, or about $38,000 versus $3000. Wow. That's a huge jump in energy prices.
Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris * http://PayneCM.com * Follow on Twitter * Follow on Facebook * Follow on LinkedIn * Subscribe on YouTube * Follow on Instagram
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What's up! It's episode 96 of Payne Points of Wealth! Fool me once J. Powell, shame on me, fool me twice, shame on you. The FED continues to talk tough when it comes to raising interest rates to combat inflation. Yet only a year ago, they said there was no reason to raise interest rates at all. Should you trust the FED? Is anything they're saying right now making sense? Should you believe it? Are we going into recession? Is inflation actually coming down? Well, we're gonna give you our viewpoint on what we think is happening right now in the economy, and what you need to be doing with your portfolio. We're also going to talk about unhealthy financial foods. The financial services industry loves to sell you lots of products that you probably don't need in your portfolio. We're gonna break that down for you. Check it out.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * No one can know what’s unknowable [1:14] * Energy’s impact on inflation [4:49] * A huge % of your return comes from dividends [7:02] * The Tipping Point [11:33] * Added sugar [14:51] * Trans fats [17:23] * Personal trainer vs DIY [19:44] * Hidden Facts of Finance [21:35]
Negativity = Opportunity One thing we know for sure is that there's extreme pessimism out there right now. The negativity is so thick you can cut it with a knife. More than one client called this week and said Michael Burry, that guy from The Big Short, he's negative now, he's bearish and calling for a big bubble burst. Well, we get these guys through every cycle. Every cycle you have somebody who made a correct call or a lucky guess and they never have a second one. Better to be right once than never? We used to have magazine covers that would tell us how things are going. Back in the 70s' Businessweek was famous for its headline, The Death of Equities. They wrote an article in 1979 saying stocks would never go up again. That was the biggest bottom of Bob's career and the best buying opportunity he's ever seen in his life. You have the same type of situation right now.
This week on the tipping point: Unhealthy Financial Food In the financial world, there's a lot of fluff or, products and services you probably want to avoid at all costs. So I thought we could use the analogy of unhealthy financial food and talk about how there are unhealthy financial products that our listeners need to avoid at all costs.
Talk about empty calories, I was doing a proposal for a client and he brought a proposal that he'd received from one of the big banks. The proposal was 75 pages long. After going through it, I could only find about three pages worth of good information. The rest was just legalese and a bunch of what we call industry jargon.
What you see in the financial services industry are these fancy products that add on all these bells and whistles. We know that a lot of annuities out there are guilty of this. A lot of these structured products are where you only get limited downside but you get X amount of the upside. They sound sexy. They sound like really good common sense products but when you start looking under the hood at how they work, you're not getting a good deal. It's actually bad for your financial life.
This week’s hidden facts of finance * Annual global sales of industrial robots and factory automation are forecasted to more than double by 2027. * Nielsen disclosed that US streaming in July passed cable viewership for the first time ever with 34.8 of total viewing hours versus 34.4% for cable and 21.6% for broadcast TV. Broadcast TV is clearly out. * Nielsen disclosed that US streaming in July passed cable viewership for the first time ever with 34.8 of total viewing hours versus 34.4% for cable and 21.6% for broadcast TV. Broadcast TV is clear! * While equities are still holding up relative to bonds, there have been no monthly flows into stocks over the past half year. Bonds hate inflation, equities hate recession and risk sentiment right now is appalling.
Resources & People Mentioned * Michael Burry article * Death of Equities
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What's up! It's episode 95 of Payne Points of Wealth and FED chairman J. Powell has ruined everything! Just two weeks ago before recording this podcast, J Powell came out and basically said that the FED was going to continue to be hawkish with their monetary policy, and markets sold off precipitously. Is this the end? Is the punch bowl going away? Is the economy ruined? Well, we're going to talk about that on our podcast today, we're going to give you our viewpoint. And we're going to talk about critical questions you need to ask yourself if you're putting together your financial independence plan.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * How a great portfolio is like a great rental property? [2:22] * Bulls or bears…it depends on the wind [4:43] * Don’t double down on tech [6:58] * The Tipping Point [11:56] * Do people really spend less when they retire? [13:08] * How will you fill the income gap? [15:43] * Do you know what you own and how are your finances organized? [19:11] * Hidden Facts of Finance [23:07]
Keep your portfolio because the rents are going up! That eight-minute speech that J Powell gave certainly sent our clients into a tailspin. I was talking to a client last week and he asked if this was time to sell out of his portfolio. Of course not! The value of your house probably went down 10-15% in the last few months, are you selling that? Of course, the answer's no.
Owning a great portfolio is a lot like owning a rental property. With the dividends and interest, it pays you're going to collect rent until the market goes back up. Under our e-money portal, you can even pull in the value of your real estate from Zillow, so it's updated in real-time.
One client I spoke with has a lot of rental properties. He said that they were at all-time record highs and now they're down like 15% in some cases. I said well, why don't you panic out and sell? He said, why would I do that? I'm still collecting my rent and guess what I'm going to do next year? Raise it.
That's kind of how it works with the stock market. Stocks pay dividends. We just had global dividends hit an all-time record high at $545 billion. Think about that. We have increased dividends to the highest level ever and they're going to go up again next year!
This week on the tipping point: Critical questions We thought today we could talk about certain questions that you really want to ask yourself to make sure that you're on track to what we call that proverbial financial independence. We covered some critical questions that everyone needs to answer to make sure that they're on their path. Will you really spend less in retirement? SPOILER ALERT...Probably not! Where will your income come from and how will you get it? Do you know what you own and more importantly WHY you own it? How are your finances organized? Can you generate enough returns that it keeps abreast of inflation? If you haven’t asked yourself these questions in a while (or ever) then this is an episode you will want to listen to! Go check it out ASAP!
This week’s hidden facts of finance * Small investors matter for Tesla. About 46% of shares available for trading are held by non-institutional investors. The comparable number for Google is only 15%. Small investors basically drive that stock. * American airlines group is planning to buy up to 20 supersonic jets to speed up air travel. Boom Supersonic is developing an airplane called Overture, which is being designed to carry 65 to 80 passengers. American Airlines said that supersonic flights from Los Angeles to Honolulu would take only three hours or as little as half the time of a standard jet. * A high-tech portrait of Warren Buffet topped $75,000 in bidding. It shows a grid of letters over an image of the investor that lights up to spell out several of his famous quotes. Proceeds from the eBay auction, which concluded on Buffet's 92nd birthday, will go to one of his favorite charities Girls Inc. of Omaha. * HBO's House of Dragons, the prequel of Game of Thrones racked up 10 million viewers on its debut, a record for the network. Demand was so great that thousands of US online viewers experienced crashes.
Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris * http://PayneCM.com * Follow on Twitter * Follow on Facebook * Follow on LinkedIn * Subscribe on YouTube * Follow on Instagram
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What's up! It's episode 94 of Payne Points of Wealth and we have a special and very different episode for you today. We have a good friend Rich Antonello, on the podcast. He's the former CEO and founder of Complex Media, a company that recently merged with BuzzFeed. Rich talks about the entrepreneurship journey, how he came from humble beginnings back in Brooklyn, and how that impacted his view of finances. He also talks about the state of the financial services industry in general. It's a great interview, Rich is a really charismatic guy, and he's got a pretty cool take on things. We think you're going like it.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Rich roots from humble beginnings [1:04] * Having the guts to leave the guiled cage [8:36] * The psychology of money [15:04] * Sold not bought [25:00] * What is the 3.0 version of what the market has become? [32:24] * The impact of music [42:51]
What was it like for Rich growing up in Brooklyn? Rich says it's not just the location, but you have to think about the cultural and familial side. Both of his parents were immigrants. His mom was one of 9 and his dad was one of 8. So literally big families, both Depression kids, and education wasn’t big on either side. Then you layer on the neighborhood. It's a beautiful place to live if you want to grow up around neighbors and neighborhoods where it's basically extended family. The trade-off was that you lived a very small life because your exposure was so narrow. There were a lot of cops, a lot of firemen, and union jobs. His dad was a UPS delivery guy. The aperture of what you're knowledgeable about and what you see is limited. There were very few executives and very few financial guys. Rich's exposure to business was trying read a Wall Street Journal which was not something readily available.
But he thinks it was a great thing in that he learned foundational values. You couldn't operate within that world in any other way. These were good people, but the view of ambition and even understanding what a floor in a ceiling would be like from a career perspective was just nowhere. And he couldn't Google it back then either. The library had a whole bunch of old biographies. It was great to be able to go read about Rockefeller, but it wasn't exactly what Rich would call inspirational from the standpoint of understanding what a blueprint or a track would be from a realistic perspective for somebody like him.
Rich’s mind on money Obviously, Rich's financial circumstances have changed drastically from his humble roots in Brooklyn. But how has that changed his perception of money and how is it the same just because of his upbringing? The way we're brought up does color the way that we view our financial situation, financial security, and a lot of the decisions we make around money.
Rich explains how his perception has changed entirely but his behaviors have not come all the way along. He's massively aggressive and understands so much more and can see the things, but there's that little voice in the back of his head that always pulls him back from being as aggressive at the edge as he'd like to be. Check out the episode to hear him go deeper on this.
Where is finance fundamentals 101 Rich thinks the lack of foundational, honest, educational, finance 101 is unbelievable. People don't like talking about it, but when somebody tries to sell them something they feel more comfortable going to Google than they do talking to somebody. They are looking for it, but nobody is offering that.
We should all have had this type of education foundationally. Ideally, it happens at a family level, but most families don't have it to give. Rich says his own father couldn't help him think about the way his life has unfolded. That's not a knock on him, he just had no exposure, education, or the wherewithal to even think about any of those things.
Why don't the leading platforms, especially the leading media platforms, provide that baseline level of understanding so that when you do talk about meme stocks and short squeezes you're not getting caught up in the hoopla but you're educated enough to look at that and fundamentally understand?
Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris * http://PayneCM.com * Follow on Twitter * Follow on Facebook * Follow on LinkedIn * Subscribe on YouTube * Follow on Instagram
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What’s up! This is episode 93 of Payne Points of Wealth and we've heard a lot about recession, but it seems like the economy is more resilient—probably the correct R word to be using right now—as we've seen a labor market that is the hottest it’s been in 50 years. We've never seen a recession when unemployment was going down and that's what we are seeing today, employment going down. We're seeing inflation numbers come down, as we’ve told you they would. So what does it mean for the rest of the year? Are we going to get this recession? Are we still in an economic boom? What do you make of it? On the Tipping Point, we're going to talk about how your financial independence plan is like putting together a jigsaw puzzle. We're going to help you frame it, visualize it, and show you how to get financially independent as soon as possible. Check it out!
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * The surprises always come in the positive [2:42] * This time next year [6:06] * History teaches us everything [9:01] * The Tipping Point [12:26] * Begin with the end in mind [13:50] * Not good or bad…just appropriate [17:11] * Hidden Facts of Finance [21:06]
The Market is always right! Companies are profitable, 77% of companies reported better than expected profits. Even though we had a negative GDP number, we have an economy that's growing, slowing, but still growing. Inflation is still raging, but we had two good inflation numbers this week that brought inflation down from last month's readings. Maybe we have peak inflation. Maybe we have peak hawkishness on the part of the Federal Reserve and it's time to start thinking about all the positive news that's going to be coming out going forward.
That's where markets trade, right? It's that gap between what the expectations are and what reality ends up being. That's what we saw this last week, expectations that inflation was going to be higher. Now, reality tells you that it's not as bad as you think. It is starting to slow. The 10-year treasury, as we're recording this, is only around 2.8%. That's not pricing in 8% inflation going out into the future. The market's always forward-looking. The market's always right. If the market's going up, the market's telling you that inflation is coming down, it's moderating, and the economy is probably stronger than what we've been hearing.
This week on the tipping point: Financial jigsaw puzzle We look at probably 50 portfolios a month so we know what all the strategies out there on Wall Street look like and we've found that most of you don't really have a financial independence plan. We want to talk about how having a jigsaw puzzle is comparable to building the right financial independence plan. You can create financial security, eventually, live off your assets, and depend on what you've saved over the years.
If somebody throws away the cover of the box, you have no idea what that picture is supposed to look like, and trying to put those pieces together is near impossible. Unfortunately, that's how a lot of people do their financial planning. We think the reason a lot of people avoid putting together a financial plan is that they have a collection of investments, accounts every which way, and they just don't know how to go about it. It can be pretty overwhelming for people.
That's why you need to have the cover of the box (a plan), to get a view of what you're doing. We need to begin with the end in mind. How much money are you going to need to live on? Just going through that whole exercise is so therapeutic and it puts everything into focus.
This week’s hidden facts of finance * It's hard to overstate the importance of Taiwan to the US and the global tech landscape. Most of the advanced chips required from military defense systems and corporate computing services are made in Taiwan. Taiwan accounts for more than 90% of the world's most advanced chip manufacturing to put that in perspective South Korea is number two with just 8%. * Cell phones are making their way into younger hands. Last year, 43% of 8 to 12-year-olds had their own handsets. That's up from 24% in 2015. * Do you remember the $6 million man? Well the $6 million dollar man toy from 1977, because of inflation today, would be called the $24 million man. * Monaco has been crowned the most expensive city in the world to buy property. A million dollars only buys you 157 square feet of prime property. That's expensive!
Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris * http://PayneCM.com * Follow on Twitter * Follow on Facebook * Follow on LinkedIn * Subscribe on YouTube * Follow on Instagram
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What's up! It's episode 92 of Payne Points of Wealth and markets have finally rallied! Economic data, well… still not great. Earnings…not bad. But pay attention because the forward-looking markets are telling you about the future. We're going to explain why the market went up even in the light of huge inflation and geopolitical issues. Today on the Tipping Point, we're going to talk about what Wall Street loves to sell you, the products, and the schemes that you need to avoid to make sure you're on your path to financial independence.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Embrace the gloom [1:05] * You can’t be all or none [3:58] * Never a bad time to be in the market [7:00] * The Tipping Point [10:47] * Question to ask yourself if the yield sounds too good to be true [12:32] * The 2 out of 3 rule * Hidden Facts of Finance [18:06]
There is NEVER a bad time to be in the market! Jerome Powell has done a great job. As we've said, week after week, he's had his foot on the break, not trying to kill the economy just trying to slow it down. Not every company came out with spectacular earnings, even though 70% of the companies that have reported have shown positive on their earnings. But remember they're ratcheting those earnings down a little bit since we've had all these negative headwinds to contend with.
We can't declare victory just yet, we still have inflation and a FED that's behind a curve. There is a chance that rates could go higher. That's why you have to be an investor and you have to make moves in this market. You can't be all or none because if you're sitting on the sidelines right now and you got out of the market, even if you just got out in January, you're wondering now what do I do as you're still making nothing on your cash!
This week on the tipping point: Preposterous Products In our collective 75 years in the financial services industry at our firm PCM, we analyzed close to like 50 portfolios a month. We know what everyone is doing out there and we find it shocking that in our industry a lot of the products that are sold are great for the firm that sold them and great for the commission to the broker that sold them but they're not necessarily the best place for you to put your money. There is a lot of buyer beware action out there. Here are a few of the top products to look out for:
- Anything with a fancy, shiny sales brochure or proposal. If it’s got really great graphics and high falutin terms while making promises of fantastic returns there is probably a trap in the fine print.
- Another investment that gets sold, not bought, on Wall Street are insurance products like annuities. They give you a guaranteed income for life, protect your principle, and all this stuff sounds really good. Ask about the return over the last 10 years and see if you get a real answer.
Check out the episode to hear us explain why!
This week’s hidden facts of finance * More than half of generation Z adults between 18 and 25 are already investors with 26% invested in individual stocks. This would make them more financially active than any previous generation at their age. * Bill Gates, the largest private owner of US farmland, said on social media that he is going to be investing in more farmland. Microsoft to micro-greens and it's reported that he's making almost 700 million a year on the rents on these farms. * Median home prices in the US went from $275,000 to $400,000 in three years. That's more than a 15% compounded annual growth rate in just three years. * New York rents set records last quarter. In much of Manhattan and Brooklyn median asking prices jumped 40% or more from 2021. In Manhattan, the biggest rise was in the area covering Soho, Little Italy, and Nolita. The median rent is up 51% at $4,825. It's painful here in the village.
Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris * http://PayneCM.com * Follow on Twitter * Follow on Facebook * Follow on LinkedIn * Subscribe on YouTube * Follow on Instagram
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What's up! It's episode 91 of Payne Points of Wealth and we're getting mixed emotions from the economy in the stock market as we're in the midst of earning season. Surprise, surprise earnings are not looking as bad as Wall Street is wanting you to believe. We're going to break it down and give you our view on what's going on with earnings right now. What we see right now with the economy, the labor market, inflationary pressure, everything everyone's talking about, we're going to give you the Payne view.
On the Tipping Point, we have guest Aaron Dessen, a Certified Financial Planner™ at Payne Capital Management, and we're going to give you a financial independence pop quiz! Can you answer these questions? Are you on your path to financial independence or do you need some help?
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Could the lows be behind us already? [2:32] * What the FED is doing is working [5:55] * What happened the last time we saw high bond allocations [8:21] * The Tipping Point [12:43] * Do you know how much it costs to fund your lifestyle? [13:50] * What does your net worth need to be before you can live off of your portfolio? [16:12] * Hidden Facts of Finance [21:22]
Are the lows already behind us? Jeremy Siegel is a great economist and a professor of finance at Wharton at the University of Pennsylvania. He's a big fan of Jerome Powell and the federal reserve and has been rooting them on to raise interest rates. He believes that they will hike 75 bits next week. Jeremy also thinks that they're going to start paying attention to the slowdown in the economy and the lows could absolutely be behind us already. Now he doesn't KNOW, but again, he's a smart man and he knows that J Powell is looking at all the indicators. Who knows, we might have seen peak inflation.
It was indicative last week when we had really good earnings on a Tuesday and markets went up over 700 points in one day! It's just a reminder the market action can change on a dime. Your bigger risk here is that we get good news and suddenly you get a huge melt-up in the market. This is why you don't market time because when that happens if you're not already invested, you miss the boat.
This week on the tipping point: Can you answer these questions? The first question we usually ask people who walk into our firm is “Do you know how much it costs to fund your lifestyle?” In our experience, most people really have no idea. It's not that hard to figure out. You’ll need to know what your take-home income is and then we can figure out what your rate of savings is and kind of back into it from there. When we get to that number most people are pretty surprised.
This leads to the question “What does your net worth need to be before you can live off of your portfolio?” What is it that takes people from feeling completely blind about what they’re doing to feeling comfortable and confident that they have a plan in place so they can sleep at night? The only way to figure that out is by doing a comprehensive financial plan. This brings us right back to the need to have an answer for question number one.
This week’s hidden facts of finance * When it comes to food inflation margin experienced the largest percentage price increase. The spread is 34.5% more expensive than it was last June and its price leaped up 7% from May to June alone. * About 60% of working Americans say that the definition of what's considered "professional" has changed since the start of the pandemic. Keeping a conservative appearance seems to be losing popularity. * An NFT (non-fungible token) by Digital artist Pak, a pseudonymous artist (or artist collective), called The Merge is the most expensive NFT ever sold. It sold for 91.8 million. * Cassettes are back! In the US sales have seen sharp gains in recent years. The format nearly doubled from 173,000 units sold in 2020 to 343,000 units sold last year and are already at 215,000 units sold in 2022, on pace to make it another record year. I don't get it.
Resources & People Mentioned Aaron Dessen works closely with clients providing personalized service and advice, focusing on goals-based investing and comprehensive financial planning for individuals, families, and businesses.
See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
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What's up! It's episode 90 of Payne Points of Wealth! Who once said there ain't no time for the summertime blues? Well, guess what? The stock market didn't get the memo, we're still seeing tremendous volatility in stocks right now. Earnings season is upon us and it could be the most critical earning season of the year and give us a preview into what's going to happen in the economy the rest of the year. Of course, we're going to give you our thoughts today on how you should position your portfolio right now to protect yourself but grow your money. On the Tipping Point, we're going to give you some practical tips and steps to ensure you're going to be financially independent.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Businesses are showing no signs of recession but banks are prepping [1:07] * Uncertainty is high. Are we going over a cliff? [4:19] * How can low markets be in the best interest of your portfolio? [6:17] * The Tipping Point [8:55] * Are you taking the appropriate amount of risk? [10:30] * Looking under the hood to find out what risk you’re really taking [13:33] * Having a holistic plan [15:44] * Hidden Facts of Finance [18:39]
Perhaps this is in my best interest An upset client called worried about what's going on with the world and she was concerned about her portfolio. This is normal and something we hear often. She asked if we thought it would be a good time for her to go to cash? Of course, our answer is ABSOLUTELY NOT! We informed her that that would hurt her entire plan.
She wanted to know why.
We went on to explain that more than half of her returns come just from those interest and dividends and that she needed to remember that we're reinvesting that at low, low prices. She then says, so this actually could be a good thing for me? We couldn't congratulate that client more. She's absolutely right and there’s nothing better than the feeling you get when a client gets it!
This week on the tipping point: Are you taking the appropriate risk? We have found that the biggest question we get from people who come to us whether they're referred or they come knocking on our door, is "Am I taking enough risk to achieve my goals, or am I taking more risk than necessary?" And what we've found with most investors is they take way more risk than necessary, especially when they're within three years of achieving their retirement goals. The problem is you don't realize you're taking that risk until the market goes down.
How would you even know the risk you're taking if you have multiple accounts? You'd probably think you were diversified because you have different accounts. The problem is when you look under the hood and you look at all those accounts together, a lot of that money is all concentrated in the same place and you probably don't even know it. You're thinking I have lots of accounts, lots of different investments. I'm probably diversified and you're wrong. You're not diversified. You know, it really pays to know how all your money is allocated together.
This week’s hidden facts of finance * During the 12 US recessions since WWII the median decline in dividends paid by S&P 500 companies was just 1% in 5 of those recessions, 1949, 74, 80, 81, and 90 there was absolutely no decline. Even in the sharpest and deepest recession in modern history, S&P dividends only fell by 3%. Dividends are a great inflation hedge. * During the Great Inflation from 1968 to 1983, the consumer price index surged 186% or 7.3% annually over 15 years. Exacerbated by two oil crises that also slowed the economy and increased unemployment. This painful condition was dubbed stagflation. * A one-bedroom apartment in New York City has been leased for $5,000 a month. That 600 square feet. Whoever said New York city was dead was clearly wrong. * The iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF has dropped 24% in 2022, worse than the S&P's 18% decline as this recording. Momentum is among the worst performing factors this year trailing only growth.
Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris * http://PayneCM.com * Follow on Twitter * Follow on Facebook * Follow on LinkedIn * Subscribe on YouTube * Follow on Instagram
Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify
What's up! It's episode 89 of Payne Points of Wealth. Recession, no recession? I know you're tired of talking about it. We’re tired of talking about it. The media can't stop talking about it. Well, we're going to give you our views today. The employment numbers were hot last week, red hot, we've got over 11 million jobs available in this country and only 5 million people looking. We're suspicious about this recession and we'll talk about why in this episode. On the Tipping Point, we're going to talk about the hard truths of financial independence that you're going to have to grapple with, that you will have to deal with if you want to be financially free. Check it out!
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * The most highly anticipated recession in history [1:05] * Is it a recession or a slow down? [4:26] * The Tipping Point [8:27] * How we know when someone has a bad investment strategy [10:10] * Now is the time to be proactive [13:17] * Hidden Facts of Finance [17:03]
The problem with the media The problem with the media is that you get this barrage of negative news and it discounts the fact that there are a lot of positives out there. Look at earnings, we've got earning seasons upon us, and for all intent and purposes, it's probably going to be pretty good. You're going to have some revisions downward for some companies, but for the most part, the projections looking out for the rest of the year should be pretty solid.
We've got earnings growth, loan employment, and Americans sitting on their highest net worth ever, meanwhile, all we can hear about is how we're having this slowdown, how we're about to fall off a cliff. It just doesn't jive, with what it actually happening right now in the economy. And I think many people will regret it later, not taking advantage of the uncertainty right now. This uncertainty is your best friend as an investor and when you look back, these are always your best opportunities.
This week on the tipping point: No way around uncertainty When we're helping people achieve their path to financial independence, there's no way to get around uncertainty. We wish we could make it so easy and all the variables could just be taken out of the equation but part of financial independence and part of financial freedom is you have to become somewhat comfortable with the fact that things are always a little uncertain. That's why it's so critical to have a process-driven strategy when investing your money versus an event-driven strategy. The market is counterintuitive, if you depend on what the Federal Reserve is going to do next the market has already anticipated that. You're going to have a hard time making investment decisions based on reacting all the time to what's going on. If you're process driven, it gives you the ability to be unemotional and to be a little more pragmatic when it comes to strategy.
This week’s hidden facts of finance * Hendrik Bessembinder performed a study on every stock on the New York stock exchange in NASDAQ, going back to 1926. He found that 86 stocks accounted for roughly half of the market's total return over 90 years! * The age of peak TV is ending a TV director who made 4 million a year now gets 750,000 a year. TV budgets have dropped more than 30%. * Top Gun is making 2022 a top year for both Tom Cruise and Paramount pictures. Top Gun Maverick passed 1 billion in global ticket sales making it the highest-grossing film ever for Tom Cruise and the biggest movie for the studio since Transformers Age of Extinction in 2014. * Bridgewater's flagship hedge fund gained 32% for the first half of the year in their firm's Pure Alpha II fund, which is pretty impressive. The fund has returned 11.4% annualized since its inception in 1991, which is really not that impressive when you consider you could have just bought the S&P 500, which returned 10.6% since 1991.
Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
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What's up! It's episode 88 of Payne Points of Wealth, and we’ve finished the year's first half. It's been the worst start of a year for the S&P 500 since 1970 as markets are down nearly 20%. In the meantime, inflation remains high. The Fed is going to continue to tighten its monetary policy. What does this all mean for the second half of the year? Well, the answer may surprise you and we're going to break it down for you today. On the Tipping Point today, since we're just passing the 4th of July weekend, we're going to talk about financial independence. What do you need to be independent of to be financially independent? We're going to talk about how to give you your path to financial freedom the right way.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * The downside of cooling off the economy [1:25] * Don’t wait for opportunity to be gone [3:56] * Picking on Wall Street [7:42] * The Tipping Point [10:07] * Scared money never wins [14:06] * Hidden Facts of Finance [18:50]
Look for the positives among the negative news The financial media grabs onto every negative headline. They take everything that's bad and exacerbated by making it sound even worse. China, for example, is coming out of its COVID shutdown instead of focusing on the fact that it's going to help the supply chain disruptions which will help the global economy they look for ways to scare people. Saying things like that demand will push oil to $200 a barrel.
They take every bit of news and they spin it negatively and of course, when your portfolio's down, your statement's down, you tend to start to view those headlines with a little more attention than you normally would. It forces you to think negatively and that's where you must be careful. You have to remember the values are better now than they were in the last six months. You have bond yields that are attractive. There's a lot of opportunity being created but the news media wants you to think that it will never get better.
This week on the tipping point: What do you want to be free FROM? We just celebrated the 4th of July and in the spirit of the independence weekend, let's talk about financial freedom and what we want to be free FROM to indeed be financially independent.
One of the biggest things we want to be independent of is the government. You want to maximize your Social Security from them but you want to pay the least amount of tax possible. It blows our minds at how many tax inefficient portfolios we review almost daily. Within the confines of the law, there are so many little tweaks you can make to your portfolio. It's always little tweaks and not big sweeping changes that have a dramatic impact on your portfolio.
Independence from family is another thing we want to celebrate on the 4th of July. Not that you don't want your kids around, but you don't want to be sleeping on your kid's couch in your golden years. So you want to be certain that you have a plan in place that accounts not just for the income you need, but for the inflation that we're seeing in this current economy.
This week’s hidden facts of finance * Paul McCartney's total reported career growth has now surpassed the billion dollar mark making him one of 11 artists to surpass the mark in box scores 30+ year history. * TikTok has surged to a billion plus global users. It raked in almost 4 billion last year in 2021, mostly from ads, and has projected to hit 12 billion this year. * It's been a dreadful first half of the year for speculative grade debt bond funds, AKA junk bonds. With the popular iShares iBoxx high yield corporate bond exchange traded funds suffering and negative. Total 13% negative return this year through June 22nd.
Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
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What's up! It's episode 87 of Payne Points of Wealth and the S & P 500 has had the worst start of the year since 1970 and there's a lot to be concerned about. We've got war in Eastern Europe, we've got interest rates going up, we have inflation at the highest it’s been in literally 40 years. In addition to that, we have China in somewhat of a lockdown. We've got commodity prices starting to come down. What does it all mean? Well, we're going to break it down today. We're going to tell you exactly what we think about the economy, the market. Markets are down over 20% so we're going to talk about a bear market survival guide. Do you have what it takes to survive this bear market? Listen and find out!
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Clarity is not a friend of the investor [1:43] * The Fed is doing a good job [4:11] * When you make the big money in your portfolio [7:17] * The Tipping Point [9:14] * How quickly can you turn your investments to cash? [11:57] * Avoid the sexy pitch [14:11] * Are you obsessed with dividend-yielding stock? [16:11] * Hidden Facts of Finance [18:27]
You can't get good prices with good news The only thing certain about this market is uncertainty. We have recession fears, inflation, hysteria, interest rate concerns, and a federal reserve that told us that the inflation rate was transitory. Now they're telling us we'll tell you when it's done going up and we'll be able to give you a nice soft landing. Sounds like we're gonna have a real bumpy landing! The point is when you get markets that go down this quickly and this hard, generally, there's a snap-back rally at some point, and you don't want to be on the sidelines when that happens.
The way that markets work, and we talk about this a lot, they're forward-looking. The market will most likely recover way before the news gets better. A popular mentality is "Let me just wait and see. Are we in a recession yet? Let's get some clarity." Well, clarity is not your friend when it comes to investing. When the uncertainty is high and we have no idea what's going to happen, that's when you get the best pricing. You can't get good prices with good news. So this bad news is a huge advantage, as you're trying to allocate capital right now, you've gotta embrace the uncertainty.
This week on the tipping point: Bear market survival guide While it may feel prudent to take action during a bear market decline and sell out of your portfolio in our experience, the long-term results can be disastrous. Selling when prices are down will lead to permanent losses and then you miss the inevitable big recovery rally, which typically comes out of nowhere. Therefore, keeping your head during these extreme periods of volatility is critical to achieving your long-term financial goals. I thought we could discuss our firm's bear market survival guide.
The number one thing you should always do is reassess your portfolio allocation, especially when you're in volatile times. We tend to let our winners run and ignore our losers so over time you get out of balance. If you're not constantly rebalancing your portfolio with cash flow or with some type of systematic rebalancing annually, you're most likely out of whack right now and the market is not very forgiving guys. It reminds you when you're outta whack.
This week’s hidden facts of finance * US Federal regulators say 46,000 people have reported losing $1 billion in the Crypto Market in scams since January of this past year. * The average peak to trough bear market decline is 37.3% over a span of 289 days. Matching that pattern we'd end this pain in this bear market on October 19th, 2022. * The average peak to trough bear market decline is 37.3% over a span of 289 days. Matching that pattern we'd end this pain in this bear market on October 19th, 2022. * Thanks to the Stranger Things series on Netflix, Kate Bush has broken three UK chart records with the resurgence of "Running Up That Hill" which last peaked on the charts at #3 in 1985!
Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris * http://PayneCM.com * Follow on Twitter * Follow on Facebook * Follow on LinkedIn * Subscribe on YouTube * Follow on Instagram
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What's up! It's episode 86 of Payne Points of Wealth and the sky is literally falling. We're in an official bear market now in the S & P 500. NASDAQ is down over 30%. The headlines get direr by the day. War continues in Eastern Europe. And Bitcoin, we warned you about Bitcoin, is melting down. Well, we're gonna break it all down for you today. We have a special guest on the show today, Lee Robinson, co-founder, and CIO of Altana Wealth, an asset management firm running all different hedge fund strategies. He predicted the credit crisis between 2007 and 2009. He's seen a lot of bull and bubble bursts, written a great book called "The Gathering Storm", has a BA in mathematics from Cambridge University, and he is a good friend of Ryan's.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Lee’s outlook on the current economic market [1:23] * There’s neven been an empire that hasn’t failed [5:00] * One piece of advice as an investor [10:01] * The Tipping Point [11:20] * The 80% lie [11:49] * The income for life guarantee [14:19] * If it ain’t broke don’t fix it [18:04] * Hidden Facts of Finance [20:26]
Advice from Lee Robinson In this episode, we talked with Lee Robinson. We asked him if he could share only one piece of advice, something that he's learned over the years that he could impart on the rest of us, what would it be? This is what he has to say.
"I think the biggest mistake that I see in finance is that people cannot work from forward back to the present. They get panicked, they see a company that has a profit warning because it couldn't satisfy an order. Well, those orders are still going to come, it's still a good business. So there's a lot of short-term emotion and not enough rational thought about long-term. And I think if you're investing, I'm not talking about trading. Traders are different people. They can buy high and sell higher. They can sell low and it goes lower. But as an investor—trust, try, and think forward. When you're in a pandemic and Carnival is not allowed to do any cruises, does that mean that cruising is over forever and that business is worth zero? Probably not. So I do think sometimes investors need to think I am investing for the long run. What does this business look like in the long run? And then think, well, is it too expensive today, rather than thinking I'm buying it today can it go up tomorrow? So I think investing is something people don't understand. They confuse it with trading.
This week on the tipping point: Financial untruths For anyone who's getting close to being financially independent or going into retirement, there is this myth that you only need 80% of what you need when you're working when you're retired.
We know that's just not true. Not only do you spend a hundred percent of what you spend today, in the first few years of retirement, you're not going to work anymore but you are going traveling, you're spending more time with your kids and your grandkids you’ll probably spend close to 120%. That's why it's so critical to have a strategy where you're updating your financial plan on a systematic basis. Our e-money portal because it updates everything in real time so it's easy for us to do a planning session if someone decides to take a longer vacation, buy
This week’s hidden facts of finance * A group led by Walmart heir Robert Walton agreed to buy the Denver Broncos for 4.65 billion, a record in US pro sports. * Apple generates more revenue than any other American company. This year, the total should be around 400 billion. To boost revenue by 10% Apple needs to find 40 billion in additional sales. Growth becomes harder the bigger you become. * Worker swipe-ins at office buildings were recently in the 30 to 40% range in major markets, such as New York, Chicago, and San Francisco. It was above 50% in the sunbelt markets like Dallas and Houston. People are not back to the office in droves yet. * US inflation is 48th highest on the list of 111 countries. Last year we were ranked 28th out of 116. countries. Inflation is a global phenomenon, not a US phenomenon.
Resources & People Mentioned Special guest Lee Robinson from Altana Wealth
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What's up! It's episode 85 of Payne Points of Wealth and some days the market goes up, some days the market goes down. Some days interest rates go up, and some days they go down. So what's going on right now? Which way is the market blowing? We're going to talk about what we think is going to happen with the market and the economy. Are we going to go into this recession that more and more economists are talking about? And is inflation done with? Are we going to see peak inflation now or is it going to keep going up the rest of the year? We're going to tell you what we think for the summer and the rest of the year on how to position your portfolio and what we see in the economy ahead. On the Tipping Point today, we're going to talk about your emotions. How do you handle uncertainty? We're going to talk about the right way and the wrong way to handle volatility. Keep your emotions in check, and check it out.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Is the economy actually bad? [1:14] * We’ve already had the recession! [3:52] * A lot of tailwinds just waiting to get unleashed [7:19] * The Tipping Point [10:09] * Fear and panic [10:51] * Opportunism [13:17] * Numbness [14:25] * Anger [15:52] * Blissful ignorance [16:27] * Hidden Facts of Finance [18:36]
One positive catalyst can change everything! Everyone's talking about all the negativity, we have list upon list of what's negative right now. However, look at China, the restrictions are starting to go away, look at inflation, there's a good chance that inflation's going to come down this year. So you get one positive catalyst. Man, oh man, this market could ramp up in a hurry and you don't wanna be on the sidelines, earning nothing in cash, just trying to play catch up later. Like that's not the position you want to be in, right? I mean, you wanna be prepared for the unexpected and the unexpected being positive here, not negative because a lot of this negative news is already priced in the market. Cuz we're talking about it.
This week on the tipping point: Coping with uncertainty We're in a period of extreme turbulence and what we have found at our firm Payne Capital Management, is that when volatility is high and the future unclear, we all cope with uncertainty in different ways. In this episode, we will discuss some of the different emotions or mindsets that we've seen on display over the last couple of months and whether it is helping you or in some cases, hurting your financial independence plan.
The first one is fear and panic. Are you allowing yourself to make poor decisions like trying to time the market? It’s probably due to these two emotions. Then there is opportunism. We hear people say "I'm going to sit on the sidelines and wait for the market to collapse." But to be able to predict that is impossible.
Another emotion we think a lot of people are feeling right now is despondency or we'll call it numbness. Where maybe you put a lot of money into tech, disruptive technology, or Bitcoin, and now all of a sudden you're down huge. The mindset we're seeing is to sit and wait for it to come back. That can be wrong because we don't know when it's going to rebound.
Then there is an emotion that everybody gets at some point, Bob even had this happen to him. You get angry. You know when you lose a lot of money on something and then refuse to buy anymore even if it does well because you are angry about what happened.
And lastly is blissful ignorance. If your advisor isn’t talking to you about your portfolio and what you should be doing proactively. Don’t just hope and pray that they are looking out for your best interest. If they're not talking to you that's not something to be ignorant about.
This week’s hidden facts of finance * Ironically, momentum stocks, which by definition should be the best performers, have been getting hit with the iShare's Edge MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF declining 20% in 2022. The trend is not your friend! * In the third quarter of 2021, the $191,000,000 JP Morgan small cap sustainable leaders fund became, all of a sudden overnight, an ESG or environmentally friendly fund in one year when it lost 184 million in assets. * 18 months ago Zoom had a bigger market capitalization than Exxon Mobil but today Exxon is 10 times bigger than Zoom.
Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris * http://PayneCM.com * Follow on Twitter * Follow on Facebook * Follow on LinkedIn * Subscribe on YouTube * Follow on Instagram
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What's up! It's episode 84 of Payne Points of Wealth! Markets Go Up, Markets Go Down, Markets Go Sideways! We have no idea where the direction of the market is going right now. It's crazy out there. We've got good manufacturing data. We've got good employment data. Yet, it seems like something is looming on the horizon. We're gonna break it down for you. What our view is of the economy right now and how to position your portfolio best given all the uncertainty in the world. On the Tipping Point today, we've got lots of questions from you the listeners. We're going to answer some of the questions that you've sent us in the last couple of months, some really good ones that we're gonna address today to help you on your path to financial independence.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Is this a 2008 repeat or is it different this time? [1:08] * If you're sitting in cash right now what are you waiting for? [4:42] * How can you have a recession when everyone is employed? [7:11] * The Tipping Point [9:22] * Do you favor selling stocks at this time or just riding the carnage out? [14:57] * Hidden Facts of Finance [18:04]
Is it different this time? We're getting a lot of questions as to whether this is like the 2008, 2009 great recession, is financial panic on the horizon, or is it different this time? You know the four most dangerous words according to Sir John Templeton are it's different this time. We're seeing phenomenal economic numbers so we don't think that it's a repeat of 2008 and 2009. But when you see the headlines every day, they just come in so dire. We had JP Morgan's CEO, Jamie Dimon, come out and say that we have an economic hurricane on the horizon. That's not comforting. He's concerned about this big roll off of all these bonds that the Fed's been holding on their balance sheet. He said, it's unprecedented and he's worried about the war in Ukraine. Man, oh, man. It just seems like every headline out there wherever you look, is just negativity, negativity, negativity. Thankfully, we do this podcast to counter some of that.
This week on the tipping point: Q&A We get a lot of questions from listeners and our clients over the last couple of weeks. So I thought we could answer a couple of them here right on the show. The first question is great because a lot of people probably have the same questions about their financial independence plan.
The first question is: My wife and I are in our 50s and are thinking about changing our lifestyle to do some traveling while we work remotely. What would your advice be towards building a million-dollar portfolio of dividend-producing stocks to supplement our income while we travel for a couple of years? This would consist of solid blue chip dividend stocks and some REIT stocks with high-paying dividends.
The second question is: Do you favor selling stocks at this time or just riding the carnage out? In other words, is this a correction or the beginning of a bear market?
Listen to the episode for our answers to the questions above!
This week’s hidden facts of finance * Global GDP has estimated to run $94 trillion this year. The US represents only 25% of that, which says there might be some opportunity to invest maybe outside the US. * Saudi Aramco replaced Apple as the world's most valuable company. * Since 1936 dividends have contributed 36% of the total return of the S&P 500 according to a Bank of America. Expect payments again to grow by 13%. this year.
Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris * http://PayneCM.com * Follow on Twitter * Follow on Facebook * Follow on LinkedIn * Subscribe on YouTube * Follow on Instagram
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What's up! It's episode 83 of Payne Points of Wealth and volatility is insane right now. We're teetering on a bear market, crypto markets have melted down. Meanwhile, all of those disruptive technology stocks are down 70-80%, and you've got more recession talk with every passing week as pessimism rules the day. What's really going on in the economy and in the stock market? We're gonna give you our view on how to play it. We've got the plan you just have to listen to it. On the Tipping Point today, we're going to talk about all those burning questions you have right now. Questions that we get from our clients that are also applicable to you so that you can get the best plan for financial independence.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Has the FED done a good job? [3:09] * Volatile markets make bad decisions seem rational [7:20] * The Tipping Point [10:14] * Why are stocks and bonds down at the same time? [10:47] * Is this a correction or the beginning of a big bear market? [13:04] * What influence will change of the majority party have on the stock market? [15:38] * What percentage should be in a conservative vehicle if I retire in a year? [17:21] * Hidden Facts of Finance [20:36]
Rationally irrational The whole problem with these volatile markets is it feels so rational. It sounds rational to sit in something that doesn't go down until the volatility is over and then you can just kind of work your way back in. That sounds so rational but you know what? It's irrational. It means you have to make two perfect timing decisions. Just think about it guys, a week ago we had a market that was up 900 one day and down 1000 the next. Are you going to tell me that somebody is smart enough to time that perfectly? I don't think so.
This week on the tipping point: Conference call Q&A We did our conference call for clients recently (we will drop the link down below so you can check it out if you'd like) and we had a lot of questions come in. We have over a thousand clients and a lot of them had the same concerns so in this episode we will discuss some of the bigger concerns that they had that most of you probably have too.
Here are some of the questions we got. The first question that came in was why are stocks and bonds both down right now at the same time in this crazy market? Should we maintain a 60% stock, 40% fixed income/bond ratio, or move to a 70/30 ratio or something else?
The next question that came in was assuming a global recession is inevitable does it make sense for a retiree to sell stocks in advance of the train hitting the wall, in other words, is this a correction or the beginning of a big bear market?
Another good question that came in on our conference call was as the midterm elections approach, what influence will the change of the majority party in the House and Senate have on the stock market?
Another question was at 64 years old and retiring in another year, what percentage of my portfolio should be in a very conservative vehicle?
If you’re curious about our take on any of these questions check out the episode!
This week’s hidden facts of finance * From 1965 to 2021 Berkshire Hathaway shares generated a compound annual return of 20.1% vs the S & P 500's 10.5% a year return. * Some forecasters look for gold to reach $3000 an ounce in the next two years. * …Baby, One More Time by Britney Spears has now sold 25 million copies around the world making it the biggest selling album ever recorded by a teenage girl. * The Reddit crowd who jumped in when the lockdown began have now given back all their once tremendous gains.
Resources & People Mentioned Check out the conference call we talked about here.
See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris * http://PayneCM.com * Follow on Twitter * Follow on Facebook * Follow on LinkedIn * Subscribe on YouTube * Follow on Instagram
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What's up! It's episode 82 of Payne Points of Wealth. Another day and more of the same issues. Major volatility in the stock markets as interest rates continue to go higher. The FED continues to tighten monetary policy. In addition to that supply chains are still an issue as China is on some sort of lockdown. In addition to that, we still have war in Eastern Europe. What do you make of everything? More economists every day calling for a recession. We're gonna give you our view on exactly what's going on right now in the economy and what you should be doing with your investment portfolio. On the tipping point today, are you a do-it-yourself investor? We're going to talk about the pros and cons of running your money by yourself. Is it a good thing or a bad thing? Is it for you? We're gonna get into it today.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Going into recession? [2:48] * Bond fund news [5:01] * The Tipping Point [8:46] * Are you living in an echo chamber? [10:29] * What if something happens to you as a DIYer [13:17] * Having an accountability partner [16:06] * Hidden Facts of Finance [18:59]
Pent up demand is keeping the economy growing We have this pent-up demand of people who have been trying to buy homes but there's been a shortage. Prices are going up and housing is still strong and there are still a lot of potential buyers out there. People are still trying to buy cars. There are still vehicle shortages. Companies are trying to expand but they can't find the workers. This pent-up demand is going to continue to keep the economy growing in spite of this inflation. In spite of all the negativity that's out there right now.
When you're going into recession you're past pent-up demand. Right? You have demand actually starting to dial back. That's been the argument of all these economists that with inflation so high the consumer is just about to pull back. Well, we've been waiting for that be we are not seeing that. There's no consumer right now that's starting to pull back, no matter how high inflation is. This is more indicative of when you come out of a recession not when you are headed into one.
This week on the tipping point: Are you a do-it-yourself investor? We have a very special guest on our show today financial advisor at Payne Capital Management Francesca “Frankie” Lagrotteria. We have been talking about the differences between investing on your own and using a financial professional. For this episode we thought we could discuss some of the pros and cons of running money on your own and whether it makes sense to make that transition from being a do-it-yourself investor to working with a financial professional.
Frankie calls it being a self-employed investor. She says there are definitely some benefits to both, but there are, more importantly, some heavy risks, especially with the self-employed investor. When you do things yourself, you start to live in an echo chamber and have an advisor you have that third party, someone to bounce those ideas off of. Check out the episode to determine if DIY’ing is best for you or if it’s time to hand things over to the pros!
This week’s hidden facts of finance * Is the U.S. dollar getting a little stretched? * Flexibility has become the top worker demand. In the U.S. 2 in 5 workers desire control over their own schedules and nearly half would be willing to accept a 5% or more pay cut to get it. * Apple marched into 2022 as the first company to reach a $3 trillion market value making its market cap larger than all but 4 countries. * Mariah Carey insured her legs and vocal cords for $35 million each totaling $70 million together.
Resources & People Mentioned Meet Francesca “Frankie” Lagrotteria
See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris * http://PayneCM.com * Follow on Twitter * Follow on Facebook * Follow on LinkedIn * Subscribe on YouTube * Follow on Instagram
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What's up! It's episode 81 of Payne Points of Wealth and we have a very special guest for you today, Mr. Charles Payne, from Making Money with Charles Payne on Fox Business. He is also the Founder and CEO of Wall Street Strategies, Inc., an independent stock market and equity research company. Charles talks about his life philosophy, his journey to success, and the state of Wall Street today.
We're also going to talk about all the volatility in the market. We've got a recession potentially on the horizon, negative GDP growth in the first quarter, and earnings coming in strong. What does it all mean? We're going to give you our viewpoint on the stock market and the economy. Don’t miss it!
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Living two childhoods [1:57] * The transition from the Air Force to Wall Street [7:17] * What should you study today to prepare for a career on Wall Street? [14:08] * Charles’ view on financial security [21:57] * Back to our regularly scheduled program…Wall Street is a zoo! [27:48] * Getting past the noise [31:55] * Hidden Facts of Finance [36:06]
Making Money with Charles Payne Charles’ childhood was his driving force behind wanting to be in the financial industry. He had two very different childhoods, he tells us about them in the episode so be sure to check it out. At 14 he told his mom he was going to work on Wall Street and at 17 she co-signed so that he could buy his first mutual fund. After four years in the Air Force Charles started his career on Wall Street at E. F. Hutton. His exceptional people skills seem to be a running theme found throughout his success. Charles loves what he does and can’t imagine retiring. You can find him weekdays on his show Making Money with Charles Payne on Fox Business.
2022…The year of going nowhere FAST! It seems like we're back to where we were in January. We had an all-time record high the first week of January, then we had a big correction. Rallied back up but now we're back down to where we were corrected. It seems like we're standing still, but meanwhile, lots of economic numbers are coming in. We just had a very negative GDP down 1.4%. I say negative when you say it in the context of what the last quarter was, which was up 6.9%. Meanwhile, earnings are good, unemployment numbers are dropping, and margins are improving.
We're going nowhere fast. There's been tons of volatility, but if you look at it over the last 10 months, unless you're talking about growth or disruptive technology, the market's been sideways. The hawks are getting more hawkish because the FED is tightening financial conditions. The bears are getting more bearish. Wall Street is a zoo!
This week’s hidden facts of finance * Computer-driven trading accounts for 65-70% of daily equity activity * More than 4.3 billion people spend about four hours a day on mobile devices. * Russia's economy is smaller than New York's and technologically way more backward. * More than 70% of Americans don't know what an NFT is. However, 23% of millennials in the U.S. collect NFTs
Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris * http://PayneCM.com * Follow on Twitter * Follow on Facebook * Follow on LinkedIn * Subscribe on YouTube * Follow on Instagram
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What's up! It's episode 80 of Payne Points of Wealth and inflation is now officially at a 40+ year high! The highest level since December of 1981! Are we finally there? Is the economy going to go off a cliff or is the fact that you couldn't get a ticket to Miami to go for the weekend say that the economy's in really good shape? We're gonna explain that for you today. We're going to talk about every stage of your financial life, whether you're 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, or 80 and what you need to be thinking about right now to make sure you're going to be completely financially independent. We're going to give you our playbook so go check it out!
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Inflation hurts! How do you offset inflation? [1:56] * What you DON’T want in your portfolio [3:55] * With all this horrible news why is the market going up? [7:16] * The Tipping Point [10:23] * 20’s [10:51] * 30’s [12:33] * 40’s [14:33] * 50’s [16:01] * 60’s [18:03] * Hidden Facts of Finance [22:06]
This week on the tipping point: What you need to think of at each stage of your financial journey What should you be thinking about at 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, maybe even 80, when it comes to your financial journey?
In your 20s: The best thing you can do in your 20s is to save every penny you can because compounding works best when you start early. The earlier you start the more money you'll make. Use a Roth account if you can so that your money grows tax-free for life.
In your 30s: This is the stage where you want to start to consolidate and bring everything together into what I would call a more concerted effort, as opposed to just having a hodgepodge of investments in different places. You should also start building an estate plan and your health savings plan.
In your 40s: When you get into your 40s, hopefully, you've listened to our advice and you have accumulated wealth, and you're at a point where you have to get serious about the savings, especially college funding. Do this with 529 plans.
In your 50s: This is when you realize that you may not be working with the right financial advisor. If you take a look at your financial plan and realize you don't have one but instead, you have a collection of investments that were either bought or sold to you in mutual funds, annuities, stocks, and bonds. Make sure that you make those course corrections before it's too late. You can also make catch-up contributions at this age. Start looking at long-term health care as well.
In your 60s: This is when you decide when to retire, look at how much money you'll need in retirement, and how you'll draw on your portfolios to get it. This is where you have to get really strategic in your planning because now you're there.
This week’s hidden facts of finance * As of 2020, it's estimated that Americans saved over 60 million commute hours per day with remote work. * The electronic system was 5% of the cost of a car in 1970, it's expected to be 50% by 2030. * Monte Python And The Holy Grail's budget was 200,000 pounds and was raised by 10 investors contributing 20,000 each. Three of those investors were Pink Floyd, Led Zeppelin, and Genesis. * In 1994 Jeff Bezos famously spotted that the internet was growing at 2300% per year. That made him leave his high-paying private equity job to start Amazon.
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Hey, what's up! Welcome to episode 79 of Payne Points of Wealth! Markets are going crazy! They’re going up, they're going down, they're going sideways! There has been a lot of volatility going nowhere fast as interest rates continue to climb higher. On top of that, we've got two-thirds of economists talking about a potential recession. We're going to tell you what we think about a recession and what we think the economy is going to do over the next 12 months. On the Tipping Point, we'll talk about investing with your emotions. Are your emotions are holding you back from making good investment decisions? Listen now to hear our advice on how to fix that!
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Are things worse than they’ve ever been? [1:19] * One thing we see lacking in portfolios [5:20] * The combination you want for a healthy economy [7:56] * The Tipping Point [10:17] * The biggest overweighting culprit [13:13] * When it’s appropriate to factor in emotions [15:42] * Hidden Facts of Finance [18:45]
Do you have a pro-inflation portfolio? One thing we see lacking more than anything else when we look at portfolios right now is that most of them don't have what we would call a pro-inflation portfolio. There aren't enough inflation hedges in the portfolio. There are too many assets that are reliant on low-interest rates and low inflation. We're probably not going back to less than 2% inflation like we saw the last decade and interest rates aren't going back to under 1% anytime soon. It's like just not happening.
A lot of investors still want to hold onto what did well in the last 10 years. They're still on that growth trade. They still want to own all those large mega-cap stocks like Amazon, Google, Facebook, and Apple. Those stocks could go up, it's possible, but if we learned any lesson from the great tech bubble back in the late 90s’-00s’ it’s that a lot of these big companies like Microsoft can have a whole decade where the revenue continues to go up, the company does well, but the stock does nothing. That's one of the risks you have with a lot of these hot names. It's not that they get crushed. It's just that they don't do anything.
This week on the tipping point: Bad emotional decisions There are two huge emotions in investing. Fear and greed! Any decision made on either one of them has always historically been wrong. When it comes to making decisions about investments, it's extremely emotional.
A lot of times when you make decisions, you think you're being logical but you're actually being emotional. When you act emotionally you end up making bad decisions about how to allocate your capital. So in this episode, we talk about some of the bad emotional decisions we can make and how to protect ourselves from...well...ourselves. Removing emotion will help you make good, pragmatic, long-term decisions to create wealth over time and reach financial independence. Go listen now to see if maybe you are allowing emotions to damage your portfolio, and what to do if you are!
This week’s hidden facts of finance * From 2000 to 2010 emerging markets appreciated more than 16% a year. Whereas commodities returned about 6% a year and the NASDAQ only returned 1.6% a year. Fast forward from 2010 to now, the NASDAQ has returned 17% a year and emerging markets have only returned 3% a year, and commodities -0.15% a year. How times change! * Archeologists discovered prehistoric human remains, ceremonial artifacts, and possibly the footprint of an ancient dwelling on the site of a planned 75 story residential condo tower in Miami. Talk about holding back project deadlines! * 55 years ago, the photo session for the Beetles. Sgt Pepper's album cover took place. It cost nearly 3000 pounds, which was a huge sum at the time when album covers typically cost around 50 pounds. * Over the long term, history shows the stock market has returned about twice as much as residential real estate. The S&P 500 returned, 12.47% annually from 1972 to 2021 vs only 5.41% for residential housing.
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What's up! It's episode 78 of Payne Points of Wealth and markets have sparked a huge rebound over the course of the last couple of weeks. Ending the quarter, just down a little bit for the year. So what's the deal? Is this just a dead cat bounce? Markets are ready to fall off a cliff, we're going into recession because of high inflation, or is this beginning of a huge booming bull market as the economy chugs along? We're going to give you our thoughts on that, our viewpoint on where things are going today. And on the tipping point, we're going to talk about all those false notions that you have when it comes to your financial independence plan that you need to eradicate from your brain to make sure that you can be financially free.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Dead cat bounce? [1:09] * What will the market do with the federal reserve raising interest rates? [3:52] * Concerns about open-ended bond fund [6:07] * The Tipping Point [8:45] * The proverbial magic retirement number [10:13] * You’ll spend less money in retirement [11:53] * No need to plan [14:45] * Hidden Facts of Finance [17:57]
Are rate inversions an indicator of looming recession? What is the market going to do with the federal reserve raising interest rates? We're already starting to see some inversions in rates in that shorter-term rates are higher than longer-term rates. Every headline this week says that's a precursor to a recession.
It's a bunch of BS. It's a terrible indicator because there have been so many times that the curve was inverted and we didn't go into recession. But economists and the talking heads on TV love to talk about this. The other part you have to think about is that the government has manipulated the curve. They have this 900 trillion dollar balance sheet where they bought all these long-term bonds, which is keeping rates artificially low. Now it's getting a little wonky, but the point is, it's a BS indicator. They always roll it out every couple of years and it doesn't necessarily mean we're going into recession. In fact, it's been disproven over and over again many times.
This week on the tipping point: False beliefs Clients have a lot of big misconceptions or beliefs when it comes to what it means to be financially independent. Things like how much money you should have or you know what it should look like to be financially independent. We thought we could talk about some of those false beliefs that you have that are dangerous and are probably ruining your financial life.
It's as dangerous when you build a house without a foundation as it is to build a financial plan without a foundation of a plan. If you're just sitting there arbitrarily coming up with some number, the goal post will keep moving. Check out the Tipping Point segment in this episode to hear about the false beliefs we have come across over the years.
This week’s hidden facts of finance * Southeast Asia is ditching pandemic restrictions at last! Promising an economic rebound for 650 million or so citizens. There are opportunities in Southeast Asia right now. * The ProShares Ultra QQQs that's three times leverage on the NASDAQ is the most actively traded exchange-traded product this year. * Limited supply is helping home values. 2022 home price appreciation is estimated to hit 12%. Supply is a problem. * ESG ratings - don’t base your investment picks on a rating especially when Wall Street can charge you a higher percentage on products that they say are “ESG”
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What's up! It's episode 77 of Payne Points of Wealth and the market's finally finding some footing. We're getting some big up days. Is this just a bear market rally—a fake out—or is this the real deal? Are we're going to see all-time highs this year? We're going to talk about that along with the fact that we have interest rates...going up, oil prices...going up...inflation…going up! Are we going into a recession? So many economists are talking about it for 2023. We're going to tell you what we think you should be doing right now. On the Tipping Point today we're going to talk about those financial nuggets out there, those assets you forgot about long ago that you need to readdress to make sure your financial independence plan is in order. You don’t want to miss it!
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Interest rates up = stock prices up [1:11] * What the market is starting to tell us [3:13] * Meanwhile on the inflation front [6:29] * The Tipping Point [9:16] * Multiple 401Ks does not make you diversified [13:29] * Hidden Facts of Finance [17:59]
It’s not about what’s going on with inflation…today What’s happening with inflation today isn’t what the market is pricing today. What the market is going to start pricing in today is what inflation looks like in 12 or 24 months. The truth is, no matter what the media tells you, inflation is very likely going to be lower. That's what the market is starting to tell us right now. At this point, we’ve already gotten past the fact that the FED is going to raise interest rates. It's not going to be a surprise. They have pretty much telegraphed what this year looks like with interest rate hikes. There's nothing shocking about that. What you have to ask yourself as an investor is what will the world look like 12 to 24 months from now? What will the Payne's be saying on their podcast then?
This week on the tipping point: Forgotten assets At our firm, Payne Capital Management, we do a lot of financial projections each year. We have three certified financial planners on our staff and we do everything from a planning-based approach. One of the parts of our process—which we think is very powerful— is a financial audit. We tally up everything you have and build a financial portal so that you can get a bird's eye view of everything you're holding. A lot of times people have assets they have totally forgotten about.
Rediscovering forgotten assets is way better than slipping on an old pair of jeans and finding $20 in the pocket!
A common forgotten asset we see, especially with millennials and even baby boomers, are old 401Ks from past jobs. A 401K is a great tool but it's a lousy place, a terrible platform, to invest your money. When you have multiple 401Ks in your portfolio you are paying multiple fees, have limited investment options, and you won’t be nearly as diversified as you think. Check out the episode to hear all the reasons we think this is a bad idea and what a better option is for that money.
This week’s hidden facts of finance * Andy Warhol’s silkscreen portrait of Marilyn Monroe will be put for auction this Spring with an asking price of 200 million. That will be the highest asking price for any piece of art at auction in history. * U.S. office occupancy is still just 40%, despite the phasing out of mask and vaccine mandates for 98% of the country. * Happy 75th birthday to Elton John this month! With 300 million records sold, 59 billboard top 40 singles, nine #1 singles, seven #1 albums he is Billboard's greatest solo artist of all time. * Foreign investors have dumped a record 6 billion Chinese shares in the first three months of 2022 due to fear of new coronavirus outbreaks and the risk that Western countries will sanction Beijing as it supports Russia's war in Ukraine. That might be the counter-trend. It might be time to buy Chinese stocks.
Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
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What's up! It's episode 76 of Payne Points of Wealth and we are wondering if every strategist and economist will be wrong. Probably! Today we're going to talk about what the sentiment is on Wall Street and what investors are thinking right now. Hint, hint...they're very negative on the economy and the stock market. We're going to give you our contrarian view of what we think is going to happen over the course of the next couple of months, especially with interest rates going up now that the FED is officially raising interest rates for the first time since 2018.
The conflict in Ukraine continues to go on.
We're going to unpack a lot for you today and talk about some old-school wisdom. Bob's going to go back to the 70s’ at Merrill Lynch (when he had long hair and listened to Led Zeppelin) and tell you exactly what you need to think about philosophically when it comes to the markets. Let's hop to it. We got a great show today.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Geopolitical conflict is not as damaging to the market as you’d think [1:23] * We are in an economic boom [3:19] * The psychological aspect of inflation [6:54] * The Tipping Point [9:26] * Markets return to the mean [10:31] * The public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom [13:31] * Fear and greed are stronger than long-term resolve [16:19] * Bull markets are much more fun than bear markets [18:10] * Hidden Facts of Finance [19:58]
Abundant Americas -vs- Negative Networks The one thing that we've been stating every week is that we're in an economic boom, no matter what those strategists and economic gurus tell you. At the end of the day, we have an abundance of jobs, and wages are going higher. People are NOT dialing back their spending. Even with oil prices skyrocketing it's not going to stop them from spending, especially now that the economy is full-blown reopened. No one cares about COVID anymore or at least not enough to stop them from living life. We've learned to live with it. These are all big, big drivers for economic growth.
We should write an article every week, "If things are so good, why do I feel so awful?" Because after you look at the media or watch the news you're like, oh my gosh, things are so bad. But meanwhile, the US house's net worth is 150 trillion with a T. We're the wealthiest we've ever been in the history of the country.
This week on the tipping point: Bob Farrell’s rules of investing Here’s a list of Bob Farrell’s 10 rules that are still true today. Check out the episode to hear a breakdown of our favorite ones!
- Markets tend to return to the mean over time
- Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction
- There are no new eras — excesses are never permanent
- Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways
- The public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom
- Fear and greed are stronger than long-term resolve
- Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue-chip names
- Bear markets have three stages — sharp down, reflexive rebound, and a drawn-out fundamental downtrend
- When all the experts and forecasts agree — something else is going to happen
- Bull markets are more fun than bear markets
This week’s hidden facts of finance * John Templeton following Bob-isms he didn’t even know about! * Ukraine raised 63 million in crypto donations and people were scammed out of just as much. How’s that for secure currency? * The metal nickel spiked to 100,000 per metric ton on the London metal exchange * The asset manager’s $140 billion Pimco Income Fund held $1.14 billion worth of Russian government international bonds as of the end of 2021.
Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
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What's up! It's episode 75 of Payne Points of Wealth and the war is intensifying in Ukraine. Interest rates are moving higher. Markets are all over the place. Volatility is insane right now. There are lots of questions about the economy, the price of commodities, the price of oil. Is it going to put us into a recession? We're hearing a lot of talk about that. We're going to give you our vantage point today. How to play it, how to invest your portfolio. We're also going to talk about how you set goals for your financial independence? What do you need to be thinking about psychologically and how to put that plan in place? How do you start to think about what goals are realistic and unrealistic? Listen and find out!
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Investing is so counterintuitive [2:38] * The Tipping Point [8:26] * What you can control [10:05] * What’s your number? [12:29] * Are your goals realistic? [13:43] * Hidden Facts of Finance [17:18]
Why is investing so difficult? Investing is so difficult because the market's always climbing this wall of worry. The headlines are NATO. The headlines are Ukraine. Headlines are inflation. Once everybody feels good about that, they're not going to wave a flag saying it's safe to invest because there will be new concerns. That's why it's so difficult to stay invested and to invest in the face of all this trouble.
We have an inflation number that's close to 8%. You can't sit in cash. I don't care what the conventional wisdom is. It's more critical than ever that you get a return on your money. For all the volatility right now, the question is always what market is getting hit? Not all markets are getting hit. Technology, growth, all of things we warned you about on this podcast are getting decimated right now. However, if you look at old school value stocks... Berkshire Hathaway is up this year, it's in positive return. Our value portfolios are barely down for the year and of course those commodities are finally going through the roof. What it comes down to is you've got to have a portfolio that addresses a lot of issues and cash just doesn't do that.
This week on the tipping point: Setting goals We spend a lot of time helping people with their goal setting. We also spend a lot of time thinking about how to help people articulate and envision what they want for their life and their financial independence. Today we will talk about psychology and what you want to think about when it comes to creating your own realistic and achievable financial goals. We will share the process that we use to help our clients come to the conclusion of what they want financially.
When it comes to pain points, this is absolutely the most important one there is, and that is achieving financial independence.
It's a very personal thing. It's something that you have to understand what it looks like for you. It's not a rule of thumb and it's not what your neighbor is doing. It's your unique financial independent picture. Do you know what it looks like?
This week’s hidden facts of finance * Russia is the world's third-largest producer of oil. Who’s #1? * 35 years ago this month U2 released Joshua Tree * Longest closing of Wall Street on record * Who showed up 12 days late to the 1908 Olympics in London?
Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
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What's up! It's episode 74 of Payne Points of Wealth, Russia is moving further into Ukraine and markets are going haywire. The volatility's extreme right now. We know the FED is raising interest rates next month but what does this mean right now? Is it time to go to cash or is it time to take advantage of the volatility to create your wealth long term? We're gonna break it down for you from our vantage point. We're also going to talk about annuities today. Annuities aren't bought they're sold. Is it a good investment or a bad investment to have in your portfolio for your path to financial independence? We'll give you our thoughts on that as well.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * It's the surprises that you don't anticipate that move everything [1:48] * The tech wreck [5:03] * Why we are so optimistic [7:11] * The Tipping Point [9:27] * To get something you have to give something [12:14] * Annuities are horrible inflation hedges [15:24 * Hidden Facts of Finance [19:40]
Why we're so optimistic Look at what happened in New York this week. They said no more masks and no more Vax ID cards! You're allowed to live your life again. The economy is going to boom. People are flush with cash and they're tired of being stuck in. People are going to get back to traveling. The economy's going to keep booming. The supply chains will eventually become unclogged and what happens is the market looks forward.
When you look at prices going down right now, it's what I call price adjustment. It's a math problem. Interest rates are going to be higher, inflation's higher. You put that into the equation. You get a different answer. It's lower. But you know what we don't hear on the financial news at all? The PE ratio on the S&P 500 is very reasonable right now. NIt's a good time to be buying. Not panicking.
This week on the tipping point: Annuities We're going through a period now where it's very different, the last 40 years have been low inflation, actually a deflationary environment but now we're seeing inflation. Hopefully, we don't go back to the hyperinflation of the 70s. It was horrible, you can't imagine how bad it was, but we just had a 7.5% year over year rate on the CPI. That could see 8% on the next report and inflation is the biggest issue. It's the biggest risk every investor has in their portfolio right now. Annuities are horrible in terms of inflation hedges.
Once you get that fixed income and you give up your principle, you get the same amount every single year. Yet your cost of living is going up every year. That means the amount you're getting each month $5,000, $10,000, whatever, in tomorrow’s dollars it's like getting half because it doesn't adjust with inflation.
Meanwhile, a diversified portfolio with bonds, dividend-paying stocks, the cash flow over time is increasing exponentially to keep up with inflation. In fact, if you look at stock dividends, they've increased over the inflation rate since 1950. So annuities don't solve for the most important, most critical aspect of your financial independence plan and that is inflation.
This week’s hidden facts of finance * The 15 managers with the highest performing funds in 2021 raked in a collective 15.8 billion last year! * The global value of crypto grew by nearly 1.5 trillion last year, compared with the S&P 500’s rise to nearly 9 trillion market value. * 75% of 2020 SPACs traded at or below $10 * 25 years ago Bowie bonds were issued on the US Stock Exchange
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What's up! It's episode 73 of Payne Points of Wealth and the sky is literally falling, as we're recording this Russia is invading Ukraine. We've got financial conditions tightening as global banks around the world are raising interest rates. Is this the end? Are we going to a big, BIG bear market? Are we going into recession? Or is this the buying opportunity of a lifetime? We're going to give you our 2¢ on that. We're also going to tell you exactly what to do with your money.
On the tipping point today, we have a special guest, Frankie Lagrotteria, and we'll talk about almighty income. You need income for your financial independence plan but how do you create that income? How do you create an income plan where you don't run out of money? We're going to give you our playbook. Check it out!
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Will the Russian invasion of Ukraine affect the market? [1:08] * The gift that keeps on giving [4:36] * Living through the manias [8:15] * The Tipping Point [10:52] * The biggest challenge with creating income [12:58] * Sweat equity vs passive income [14:23] * Hidden Facts of Finance [20:25]
Bear market or a correction The best thing in the world is that we live in the great old US-of-A! Look at the people in Ukraine being subjected to this aggression from Russia. As investors we have to look at what's going to happen to the markets as a result of this. History tells us that regional conflicts, unless they end up turning us into a world war, do not bring us to a bear market.
This is a correction, not a bear market. We didn't go to a bear market after Afghanistan, or Iraq, or Korea, or Vietnam. Only after World War II started. It is a regional conflict. If you look at the GDP of all of Russia, it's about the size of Texas and Ukraine is even smaller than that. At the end of the day, if you look at these geopolitical issues that we've had in the past, usually things work themselves out and eventually investors start looking at what's going on in the economy. And right now the economy is good!
This week on the tipping point: Income One thing we've found at our firm Payne Capital Management, with the thousand or so relationships we have, is that one of the most critical components to your financial independence plan is income. You hear a lot of talk about income. How do you generate income? What's a good income? What's a bad income? How do you equate for inflation?
The cornerstone of any financial independence plan is that you're generating enough income that you can live on it. So in today's episode with special guest Frankie Lagrotteria we will do a deep dive today into understanding what kind of income you can produce on your portfolio to give yourself that freedom that we're all thinking about when we're investing our money. Check out the episode for all the tips!
This week’s hidden facts of finance * Fights to space booking now! Check it out here! * New movies, Jack Ass & Scream, killing it at the box office! * Pink Floyd’s album Dark Side of the Moon has been on Billboard's Top 200 Album chart for 962 weeks! More than any other album ever! * Did you know Google was not the original name for Google?
Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
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What's up! It's episode 72 of Payne Points of Wealth and we have the three R's right now, 'Russian', 'Repricing', and 'Rates', you’ll want to listen to hear what that’s all about. The market isn't going anywhere fast as it's trying to find its footing. We're going to give you our outlook for what we think is going on right now and how you should position your portfolio. On the Tipping Point today, I know you're not watching the Olympics—nobody's watching the Olympics, but we're gonna talk about the Financial Olympics to make sure that you can be financially independent. Go check it out!
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * The 3 R’s [1:04] * Investors fear uncertainty [5:51] * The Tipping Point [9:26] * Inflation marathon [10:47] * Recession hurdles [11:29] * Hidden fee toss [13:21] * Portfolio balance beam [16:30] * Synchronized planning [18:54] * Hidden Facts of Finance [21:48]
Value trumps growth in the current market Investors fear the uncertainty of what can happen in the future. They price in more of a pessimistic outlook and once that fear is realized, they say, "oh wait, that wasn't so bad. The economy's still booming. I'm still living my life. I'm still spending." So inflation is something that we're fearful of because it's skyrocketing right now. But remember the biggest cure for higher prices is higher prices.
The market isn't selling off. One specific market is selling off. It's those growth stocks and if you look at growth specifically right now, that's taking the brunt of any selling. Value stocks, any company that has pricing power in this new environment of higher prices where they can raise their prices and their customers are willing to pay those higher prices, their earnings look awesome!
This week on the tipping point: Financial Planning Olympics Viewership for the Olympics is down big right now but I thought we could talk about something more exciting than the Winter Olympics and that's the Financial Planning Olympics and how we can equate the Olympics to some of the financial planning issues that we've come across in our firm. A lot of managing money or getting people to financial independence is similar to being in the Olympics.
When we think about the summer Olympics and running we think about the inflation marathon. That's the thing about inflation, it's like death by a thousand cuts. If you look at it historically every 20 years, your purchasing power is cut in half, every million dollars you have today is only worth half a million dollars over the next 20 years. That's very problematic when you're trying to be financially independent.
Another event in the Financial Olympics is the recession hurdles. It's those blocks that the economy puts in your way, on the way to making your free financial goals. Things like recessions, bear markets, hyperinflation, all those things can disrupt your portfolio if you're not properly invested.
Check out the episode to hear about some of the other Financial Planning Olympic events like Hidden fee toss, Portfolio balance beam, and Synchronized planning.
This week’s hidden facts of finance * Median housing price between 2006 and 2021 * 35% of the stock bought by Robin hood users are concentrated in 10 companies compared with at least 24% by retail investors * Queen’s greatest hits collection was so popular in the UK that one in every three British families now owns a copy * Prosecutors charged a New York couple with conspiring to launder proceeds of 119,000 Bitcoin valued at 4.5 billion
Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris * http://PayneCM.com * Follow on Twitter * Follow on Facebook * Follow on LinkedIn * Subscribe on YouTube * Follow on Instagram
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What's up! It's episode 71 Payne Points of Wealth and markets are trying to find their footing as unemployment is coming down. More people are getting jobs, labor participation rates are going up. The FED? We have no idea what the FED is going to do. They're keeping it a secret. All the while we're seeing wages go up, we're seeing productivity in the economy go up, and we're seeing pessimism amongst investors. What does it all mean? We're going to break it down for you today and we're going to talk about one of our favorite Americans Ben Franklin. A Great Philadelphian. What he said back in the day that you can apply to your finances to make sure you're on track for your plan for financial independence.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * How tough is the FED going to be on inflation? [1:07] * The cure for higher prices is actually higher prices [3:31] * One end of the Seasaw goes up, the other end goes down [5:54] * The Tipping Point [9:20] * A penny saved is a penny earned [12:18] * He that lives upon hope will die fasting [14:30] * There are no gains without pains [16:24] * Hidden Facts of Finance [21:32]
The cure for inflation The cure for higher prices is actually higher prices. Right now the consumer doesn't seem to care about price. You're paying $3.50 a gallon at the gas pump, depending on what state you live in, but it's not hurting demand. As a percentage of income, it's not as bad as it's been in the past. We still see that demand. But if prices keep spiraling higher, people are going to stop spending. If it gets too costly, they're going to tell you, they're going to let the retailers know, no more. Right now what I think you are going to see happen is you have inflation, especially price increases. Higher prices will take care of themselves. Inflation will take care of itself. And because we have productivity, this economy will continue to rock because companies are being very innovative.
This week on the tipping point: Ben Frankiln{isms} Investment in knowledge pays the best interest. Know what you own and why you own it. You should be able to explain each and every investment to your grandchild in less than five seconds. And if you can't, that means your portfolio is too complex and you better have a financial advisor you can trust.
Another Benjamin Franklin quote is a penny saved is a penny earned. You can apply this to a lot of you that are looking to retire probably sooner than later. The best time the start investing and saving is when you start making any money at all, it doesn't matter what age you are.
He that lives upon hope will die fasting. This goes to that whole mindset that hope is not a strategy. Basically, it means is that you don't want to just wish your portfolio to do well. You have to make good conscious decisions about how you're investing your money.
Another great Ben Franklin expression is there are no gains without pains. You have to suffer some volatility, there's no reward without risk.
This week’s hidden facts of finance * Taylor swift has 8 different albums charting on the Billboard 200 album chart, a huge amount for any artist. but Prince holds the all-time record. * Global oil demand is fully recovered, nearing a hundred million barrels per day. * The probability of success when day trading is only slightly better than flipping a coin. * Hackers targeted two firms that thousands of public companies use to make electronic filings with us securities and exchange commission.
Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris * http://PayneCM.com * Follow on Twitter * Follow on Facebook * Follow on LinkedIn * Subscribe on YouTube * Follow on Instagram
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What's up! It's episode 70 of Payne Points of Wealth. The year is starting off with lots of uncertainty about the Fed. What are they going to do with interest rates? You've got every firm out there predicting that it's going to be apocalypse now with interest rates being hiked seven, eight times, heck even nine times! Who knows! But what does that mean for the markets? Is the economy slowing? Is it slowing too much? Are we going to see that recession that we're hearing about every single week? We're going to tell you exactly what our playbook is to invest and what you should be thinking about, and how to allocate your portfolio. On the Tipping Point today, we're going to talk about a lot of things that we hear you say, (that you shouldn't be saying) when you're trying to be financially independent. We're going to point it out and get you on the right path to financial independence.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * No one wants to catch a falling knife [1:17] * Short term volatility doesn't equal what's going on in the economy [5:24] * The Tipping Point [9:07] * It comes down to having the right financial advisor [12:22] * If I just had a million dollars [15:23] * Hidden Facts of Finance [18:45]
Keep your eye on the long term prize Keep in mind that correction is merely that, it's not a substantial change in the direction of the economy. We just had really good numbers come in from November and December in housing and retail sales. About 170 companies have reported earnings so far for the quarter and 77% have beat analysts' expectations. That GDP number came in a lot higher than anybody anticipated. So the economy is still very, very strong. Short-term volatility doesn't necessarily equal exactly what's going on in the economy. Keep your eye on the prize. Don't let all this noise get you out of your long-term portfolio.
This week on the tipping point: Phrases people say We probably look at over 50 portfolios a month. It's very typical to hear people say a lot of the same things. “When will I be in good enough financial shape to retire?” “Can I afford this?” “If I only had a million dollars I’d be able to retire comfortably.” Are these phrases right? Are they wrong? Part of it is probably that people just want to hear someone say that it looks okay because when it's just you, left to your own devices self-talk sometimes can you put us in a really negative place and we don't see the big picture.
People are afraid to sit down and do planning because they don't want to know that the answer is bad. More than not, even if you're not there yet and you can't be financially independent tomorrow if you just start you're going to get there sooner than you think.
This week’s hidden facts of finance * The median home price in 1960 was $11,900. In 2021 the average new home price was $453,000! * The cost of acquiring the rights to use the Beatles music in the film Yesterday was around 10 million, 40% of the total movie cost. * In 1932 wooden bills were temporarily made and used in Tenino, Washington because there was a major cash shortage at the time and wood was readily available.
Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris * http://PayneCM.com * Follow on Twitter * Follow on Facebook * Follow on LinkedIn * Subscribe on YouTube * Follow on Instagram
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It's episode 69 of Payne Points of Wealth and markets are literally falling apart right now! Are we going into a bear market? Is this the end? There are a lot of economists calling for a recession.
We went through a period in the last couple of years where the hottest stocks in the market were something called pre-revenue companies. In other words, they weren't making any money, but they got all the money from newbie investors, investing in innovation and disruption. Well, we are seeing disruptive technology getting destroyed, whether it's Bitcoin, Peloton, or Tesla it’s getting destroyed. The lesson learned… invest in companies that make money and better yet pay dividends.
Are you afraid of retirement? Do you think you can retire? Are you afraid that you can't be financially independent? What do you do with your money now? Should you be sitting in cash? We're going to address all of those issues in this episode! Check it out!
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * The tale of two markets [2:05] * Tightening and loosening conditions in overseas markets [6:53] * The Tipping Point [11:07] * Being bored in retirement [13:47] * Lack of confidence in your ability to retire [17:43] * Hidden Facts of Finance [20:49]
Monday morning quarterbacks of the market It sounds so sexy, right? The market's selling off, you're getting to cash, you think you're being proactive and protecting yourself. Markets change on a dime. Markets can rebound very quickly too and if you're sitting in cash, you missed the boat. That's why timing the market, in general, is treacherous! It's the worst thing you can do.
Then there are these pundits on Wall Street, these economists, they were so rosy with their outlook coming into the beginning of the year. All of a sudden the market sells off over a two-week period and we're hearing we're going to a recession. We've been talking about how tech stocks make no money and they're gonna go down. They're always playing money morning quarterback. They don't say this stuff before it happens. They always tell you after it happens, which has no value.
This week on the tipping point: Why do we say we don't want to retire when (maybe) we actually do? When doing financial planning for clients we have found that when we hear “I don’t want to retire” it doesn’t always mean clients don’t actually want to retire. Sometimes it means you love your job and don’t want to go from 100 to ZERO. Other times it means you don’t know if you can afford to retire. The fear of being without a paycheck is very real for many people. There are also a lot of things that can happen that can take the choice away. Our solution is to not talk about the “wanting” to retire but setting your financial independence date. That point when you can decide to do whatever you want and your paycheck doesn’t get a vote!
The stress and anxiety of worrying about money leads to other health issues so knowing that you're financially independent, knowing that you don't need to work is also a huge benefit in the long run and will promote even more longevity.
This week’s hidden facts of finance * China racked up a record $676 billion trade surplus for 2021, a 60% jump from the pre-pandemic year of 2019. * The average number of books read per year is down to 12.6, a drop from 15.2 in 2016. * 44 years ago the Saturday Night Fever soundtrack started a 24 week run at #1 then went on to sell over 30 million copies worldwide, making it the best-selling soundtrack of all time. * Wage inflation is real! CEO of Goldman Sachs says he needed to boost pay by 4.4 billion or 33% to remain competitive.
Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris * http://PayneCM.com * Follow on Twitter * Follow on Facebook * Follow on LinkedIn * Subscribe on YouTube * Follow on Instagram
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Here it is, mid-January 2022 and we’re watching the markets sell off and interest rates skyrocket. The big question on everyone’s minds: Will inflation cool off the market and the economy? As a result, will we go into a recession because the FED is becoming too aggressive, too late? This episode is going to give you our take on the state of the economy, the markets, and our recommended investment strategies in light of what’s going on.
And on our “Tipping Point” segment: We see lots of financial catastrophes in our line of work and we encourage you to ask this question, seriously: “Are you headed toward the rocks because you’re failing to plan appropriately?” We’ve got some important things for you to consider, so be sure you listen!
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * What a difference a year makes… the market is going down daily [1:22] * The traditional hedge for inflation that truly works (it’s not Bitcoin) [5:09] * The Tipping Point: Oversights that cause financial catastrophe [10:30] * Hidden Facts of Finance [21:22]
The big correction never comes when people think it will None of what’s happening this year in terms of inflation and economic strength is much of a surprise. Growth is still going to be solid, unemployment is going down and wages are going up, so the overall economy looks pretty good. But the market hates uncertainty. The FED is letting everyone else leak information about what the FED is going to do, and not saying anything themselves. As a result, the market isn’t responding well. Bob’s advice is that you shouldn’t trust the FED to do what’s in your interest. You can learn a lot from history. For example, old-school stocks and commodities are great options. Learn how to understand what’s really going on behind the scenes (listening to this podcast will help) and what history tells us, resist the urge to panic and cause yourself more trouble, and stick to the fundamentals.
This week on the tipping point: How Financial Catastrophe Occurs Much of the time financial catastrophe during retirement happens because of things that are overlooked by those trying to plan for their financial future. What sort of things are overlooked?
INFLATION PLANNING: After doing thousands of financial plans for clients, with the average age of those clients being between 40 and 60 years old, so we have a couple of decades of inflation to figure in. At its long-term average, expenses double every 20 years. We see this missed quite often.
ASSUMING EXPENSES WILL GO DOWN IN RETIREMENT: Many of our clients are not worried about the impact of inflation because they assume their living expenses will go down during retirement, Worse, they assume they will be able to cut back on what they spend. But most people don’t and healthcare costs can often cause expenses to stay the same or even go up. This is a big oversight.
TAX PLANNING MISTAKES: The worst kind of “gifting” that you can do is when you gift Uncle Sam more than he’s owed through ignoring your tax situation. Every tax deferred investment you have (IRAs, 401k, etc.) is going to have a “Required Minimum Distribution” during your retirement years. If you don’t plan for that certainty, the income you receive from those RMDs could become a Weapon of Mass Destruction in your financial future because of how it impacts your tax liability through increased income.
RETIRING TOO EARLY: Many retirees are forced to go back to work after they retire because they’ve underestimated the cost of living during retirement. But with a financial plan that includes wealth projections, you can plan for potential shortfalls. Many Advisors out there are winging it, not giving their clients the tools they need to accurately plan for their future. It’s terrible to get to 75 years old and have to go job-hunting.
We have other tips to share with you on this episode, so be sure to listen. This could make the difference between a comfortable, appropriate retirement and one in which you struggle.
This week’s hidden facts of finance * A otherworldly jewel will be auctioned next month ($6.8m compared) * TikTok influencers are making bank. Compared to CEOs, it’s unbelievable * The global value of equities is $121 trillion * Touring artists are making incredible revenue
Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
TODAY’S GUEST: CFP Aaron Dessin — follow Aaron on LinkedIn
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris * http://PayneCM.com * Follow on Twitter * Follow on Facebook * Follow on LinkedIn * Subscribe on YouTube * Follow on Instagram
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What's up! It's episode 67 of Payne Points of Wealth, and the FED is going to release its triple threat as they taper their bond-buying. As they're going to start to unload their balance sheet and raise interest rates, maybe four times this year, it looks like the world has changed. What do you do now? We’ve got the market going up. We’ve got strategists telling you that we're going to get a big correction in the stock market. Are you going to get it? We'll unravel it for you, tell you exactly what we think about this year, and what you should do with your portfolio. On the Tipping Point today, we're going to give you some of our more common sense, practical philosophies that you need to be applying to your financial plan right now.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Resigning to the fact that things are going to cost more [1:53] * Dividend yields [5:58] * The Tipping Point [9:32] * Are you set up to weather the storm? [12:34] * Hidden Facts of Finance [16:56]
What year are we in? Inflation is the highest it has been in 40 years, oil is through the roof, we have a Jimmy Carter-like president in the White House, it’s like we’re in 1982! Here's the thing you have to remember, back in 1982 when we had this high inflation rate, inflation started to go up and we had the beginning of the greatest bull market in history, the S&P and the Dow. Let's say the Dow was at 800 it's now closing in on 36,000. Just keep that in mind, things looked really dire in 1982 and if you sat on the sidelines, you missed out on one heck of a move!
This week on the tipping point: Underrated, simple philosophies you can use At our firm, Payne Capital Management, we have a mantra we have used for years: simplicity over complexity. We know we're in an industry that loves to sell products that are complicated, financial strategies that are high in fees that no one even understands that don't even end up working out that well.
The number one rule we have with every portfolio, whether it's a 401k, IRA, joint account, you name it, we want every single investment in that portfolio to be liquid. So liquid that you can call any day and we can have all of your money in your checking account the next day.
Knowing what you own is as important as being able to access it! You have to put your portfolio into the stress test. It's not about when things are good. What you always have to think about is when things go bad, and they will, is am I set up to weather the storm. When the getting is good it’s hard to see those pitfalls. Check out the episode for more simple underrated philosophies you can use with your wealth plan.
This week’s hidden facts of finance * The US suffered three periods of hyperinflation in the 20th century. One following each world war and then the great inflation in the 1970s. * Evercore ISA calculates that the US M2 money supply has increased by an astounding 41% over the last two years. * Warner Music just bought David Bowie's songbook for a reported $250 million. * S&P 500's top 10 holdings represent nearly 1/3 of the index's return last year, even though the fund has 508 holdings.
Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris * http://PayneCM.com * Follow on Twitter * Follow on Facebook * Follow on LinkedIn * Subscribe on YouTube * Follow on Instagram
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As the new year comes in, the economy is FULL of economic news you need to know. The Federal Reserve is more hawkish than ever with some unprecedented moves, tech stocks are being hit hard, interest rates are soaring, and oil prices are rising — all things that we predicted were going to happen to a large degree.
How can you start the year off right with your financial plan? On this episode we’re going to tell you, including how to dig into your portfolio and assess how your biggest financial assets are likely being underutilized.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * There’s been a lot of volatility in the markets as the year’s begun [1:20] * The Tipping Point: The right decisions for your biggest assets [10:35] * Hidden Facts of Finance [19:35]
As 2022 dawns our predictions are coming true What we expected has come to pass here at the beginning of the year: The FED is playing catch up. It’s been announced that the Federal Reserve will continue to taper off its bond purchases. It’s also been announced that interest rates will be going up. One last thing, the FED will begin taking money from the balance sheet to sell bonds. We saw all of this coming and told you about it in previous episodes. What we didn’t see is that the FED is doing all of this at the same time. The job market is a mess as well. Many people don’t want to get back to work after the pandemic because they are still living on the government handouts that were implemented. Others who are in the job market are demanding incredibly high wages. The bottom line is that dynamics we’ve seen this past year are changing going into the new year.
This week on the tipping point: What assets are you taking for granted? As you look at your portfolio here at the beginning of the year, you should consider your biggest assets in terms of whether you’re using them most effectively. One example is your 401(k) — it’s typically one of the largest assets in an investor’s portfolio and is not managed effectively. On top of that, 401(k)s can be cumbersome to manage, don’t provide all the tools or stock choices you need, and can also be designed with blatant conflicts of interest in them as companies use them to promote their own stock. You must be very strategic with your 401(k).
You should also consider whether your home (real estate) is doing everything it could for you, especially if you have two homes. Is it time to downsize or refinance that high-interest mortgage? It’s a seller’s market, so this could be the time. As well, look into the expenses required to maintain your home (or 2nd home). Could that money be put into better investments that can increase your cash flow or income?
Don’t miss this episode! We cover a lot of items you don’t want to be in the dark about.
This week’s hidden facts of finance * Florida’s population has mushroomed * NFTs (Non Fungible Tokens) have become a head-scratching asset class * Traditional carbon-based energy use is already at 2019 levels for the year * The S&P has no “in-between”
Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
- ARK Innovation Fund
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris * http://PayneCM.com * Follow on Twitter * Follow on Facebook * Follow on LinkedIn * Subscribe on YouTube * Follow on Instagram
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As we wrap up the year we’re seeing lot’s of interesting stuff… The FED Chairman is talking like a Dove but beginning to act like a Hawk. Is that a Dawk? Just watch, you’ll see that term springing up in common parlance and remember, you heard it here first! Inflation is running hot but it’s not going to stay that way. We’ll tell you why on this episode.
AND.. on this episode’s “Tipping Point” you’ll hear Bob and Chris explain which of my suggested “Financial Stocking Stuffers” go to those who are on the “naughty” list, and which go to those on the “nice” list.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * CPI and PPI both well above the estimates [1:22] * Trends can turn quickly and badly [6:47] * The Tipping Point: Year End Stocking Stuffers [8:09]] * Hidden Facts of Finance [18:54]
Inflation is high but is destined to drop This past year we’ve had lots of issues in the market but none as big as the supply chain. It’s been a mess all the way around. Some of it has to do with the semiconductor shortage, there’s also the labor shortage sparked by the government tax credits, etc. Those are driving inflation higher, but we have to remember… As time goes on, many of those problems will be fixed. One example: Intel is building TWO semiconductor plants in Alabama over the next year. They are not going to be caught dependent on foreign manufacturing again. We’ve also got a big problem in the labor market. There are more jobs than can be filled (greatest gap ever) and many who are employed are switching jobs to get a better wage. But in time, all of this will settle down and we are going to see how those with truly diversified portfolios are going to weather all the weirdness just fine.
This week on the tipping point: Year-End Financial Stocking Stuffers Gifts for those on the “nice” list
Fiduciary: Anytime a financial advisor is legally bound to work in your best interest as their client, it’s a winner. They won’t steer you wrong.
Long term care insurance: The cost of medical care becomes higher as you age. Long term care insurance isn’t a bad idea, if you watch your premiums and run the numbers to ensure you’re still getting the best deal. Premiums can increase astronomically the longer you hold them. You must run the math to ensure it’s to your benefit.
Gifts for those on the “naughty” list
An annuity: Any so-called investment that comes from an insurance company is not to be trusted. Most of the time the fees are too high and what you receive is not comparable to what you pay.
S&P 500: The S&P 500 is not what it used to be. Seven companies make up 25% of the index, which means you’re not getting true diversification if all you invest in is the S&P 500. And it’s a lot riskier than you think because you’re not getting full exposure to all 500 of the stocks.
High Yield Bonds: The main selling point is that these bonds pay a great rate of interest but because they are so risky, you may not get your money back. Think about it: companies that have to borrow at a high rate are unable to get financing at lower interest rates. That means they are risky.
Whole Life Insurance: Typically Whole Life works in reverse of what you really need. Don’t be fooled by the two-benefits-for-the-price-of-one sales pitch.
This week’s hidden facts of finance * 26% of U.S. investors have Crypto holdings * 48 top execs have collected more than $200M each from stock sales * 45 years ago this month, “Hotel California” was released (7th biggest selling album) * Apple: 44 years to reach $1T 2 years later, $2T 15 months later, zeroing in on $3T
Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
- The Ark Investment ETF
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris * http://PayneCM.com * Follow on Twitter * Follow on Facebook * Follow on LinkedIn * Subscribe on YouTube * Follow on Instagram
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Is it possible we’re heading into the proverbial “Santa Claus” rally here at the end of the year? It’s crazy to consider given that we just experienced one of the biggest sell-offs in market history just last weekend. In this episode you’ll get all three of us weighing in on what’s going on as well as our thoughts about how Wall Street loves to gouge investors with fees of all kinds. We’ll educate you about how you can avoid as many of them as possible, so stick around and listen to this episode.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * The markets are rebounding but the fundamentals remain the same [1:02] * Unemployment is dropping, wages are going up, earnings are going up [3:53] * What do most of us really care about when it comes to the market? [6:10] * The Santa Claus rally is a real thing, let’s take advantage of it [8:03] * The Tipping Point: Financial Services companies advise what benefits THEM [9:10] * Hidden Facts of Finance [16:48]
With last week’s drop, should you be hesitant about the current rebound? Lots of investors were shocked at the market drop last week and did what investors should never do… they moved their investments based on fear. But the reality is that your best bet is to BUY in times like that. You want to buy when prices are LOW and count on the rebound, which is what we’re seeing right now. We predict the rebound is going to continue, the so-called “Santa Claus” rally and beyond.
This week on the tipping point: Financial companies advise what benefits THEM The Financial Services industry is not a non-profit. Everyone working in the industry is being compensated (and should be), but you want to make sure that the people working with you are actually working FOR you. Are they recommending what will make them money, or what will make YOU money? There are many internal costs that never show up on your financial report or statement. It’s hard to weed them out of everything else to know what you’re really paying. You want to make sure your financial advisor is a fiduciary — a person who is obligated to work in your best interest, not theirs. And also, watch out for the annuities pitch and the structured product or structured note. You’ll be missing a lot of data you need in that pitch, so listen to get the insight you need to make the best decisions.
This week’s hidden facts of finance * Construction starts on new single-family housing will top $1M this year (and it’s not a bubble) * The rally in industrial commodity prices is fizzling out (reflective of where inflation is going) * COVID vaccination rates are higher in Brazil, the U.S. is in the middle of the pack * The attack on Pearl Harbor instigated the Military-Industrial Complex
Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris * http://PayneCM.com * Follow on Twitter * Follow on Facebook * Follow on LinkedIn * Subscribe on YouTube * Follow on Instagram
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Wow! Black Friday 2021 saw the worst stock sell-off ever! It came after the announcement of a new COVID variant that is supposedly sweeping the globe. But here are the facts most people don’t know about the stock market on Black Friday. It’s only open half of the day and computers are running the show based on algorithms. That means what you SEE happening in the market on that day isn’t a clear indication of what’s really happening. Everybody who knows what’s going on is out shopping and dealing with their turkey hangovers instead of working. We’ve got an assessment of the situation and some clear steps for you to take at year-end to move your wealth plan forward. It’s all on this episode.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * What are we to think of the biggest sell-off ever, this past Black Friday? [0:58] * Coronavirus announcements have had an impact, but not in a lasting way [4:44] * Why it’s crazy to bet against economic growth right now [6:11] * The Tipping Point: The pro moves you can use at year-end [9:12] * Hidden Facts of Finance [17:44]
The Black Friday sell-off was going to happen, with or without a new variant We’re all hearing that the announcement of the new COVID variant is what caused the sell-off on Black Friday, and sure, it has some influence on what happened. But in reality, here’s what history teaches us. Earnings seasons push a bull market forward and we were due for a pull-back anyway. When people are bullish the market tends to sell-off. But something else happens when people are bullish: the market goes up. The dynamics of our current economic situation haven’t changed, Our PMI numbers are good, consumer spending is good, and the economy appears to be going just as strong as it was before Black Friday. Betting against the market in a situation like this is not a good idea. People are going to figure out a way to thrive even when bad news comes.
This week on the tipping point: End of the year wealth factors As the end of the year approaches there are a handful of things savvy investors do to save their hard-earned cash.
- Harvest tax losses. Take profits if you are over-weighted in growth stocks. You can bank your losses against gains to save in capital gains taxes. Rebalancing your portfolio is important to do when the wind is at your back.
- Roth conversions are powerful for creating tax-free income. With 10 years of tax-free growth, you’ll break even on your money and everything that you earn on top of that goes into your pocket tax-free. Retirement accounts are a ticking time bomb. You have to pay taxes at age 72. If there’s a lot of money in those retirement accounts, that’s a lot of taxes. If you are in a low tax bracket now, pay the tax now on some of those retirement funds and put that money into a Roth to avoid higher taxes later.
- Take distributions from your retirement plan and give to the charities you care about directly from your IRA (up to $100,000). If you have appreciated stock, you can donate that to charity as well.
- If you are in a high-deductible health plan, look into health savings accounts. You can get triple tax-free benefits moving forward.
This week’s hidden facts of finance * Dec 2nd: the 20th anniversary of the Enron bankruptcy (the largest in history at the time) * Only half of Americans have the funds to retire at 70 and maintain living standards * Pfizer, Inc. was founded 172 years ago (a good example why you want to diversify) * The world’s youngest billionaire lives in Germany
Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris * http://PayneCM.com * Follow on Twitter * Follow on Facebook * Follow on LinkedIn * Subscribe on YouTube * Follow on Instagram
Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify
To quote Led Zeppelin,”The Song Remains the Same!” This great earnings season we’ve been experiencing continues, with companies experiencing their best performance in 7 years. In addition,the status quo is likely going to continue as we see Jerome Powell renominated as the Federal Reserve Chairman. That means interest rates are likely to increase next year. And that will have an opposite impact on the bond markets.
Going into the last month of the year, what does all this mean for your investments? We’ll break it down on this episode.
And in this episode’s “Tipping Point” segment… you’ve been saving your money diligently, but what are you doing with it? We’re going to outline the things you might be doing wrong when it comes to your savings, so be sure to listen!
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Jerome Powell is renominated: a hawk or a dove… or maybe a turkey? [1:16] * When the supply chain is repaired, inflation is going to go down [4:01] * Is gold really an inflation hedge? No, but there are other great options like oil [7:55] * The Tipping Point: Mistakes investors are making with their savings [11:59] * Hidden Facts of Finance [18:06]
Inflation is increasing while yields are low… how does that work? The biggest math we’re seeing right now has to do with inflation. Inflation is running at 6% and yields are running at 1.7%. That can’t remain as it is. Interest rates are going to have to move higher, so we suspect there will be an increase in rates… so be careful with your bond portfolio because bond rates go down when interest rates go up. Historically, bond rates go up to keep pace with inflation but it’s trailing, so you need to be careful. In fact, Bob says the most important thing in your life as an investor is, “Don’t own a bond fund!” But that’s not the whole story… we’ve got more to say, so listen to get the full story.
This week on the tipping point: Mistakes you’re making with your savings Most of our clients and the people we talk to are diligent about saving, but are they doing the right things WITH that hard-earned money they’re stashing away? Not always. Here are the three biggest mistakes we see…
- Many savings plans include far too much cash. It’s a big problem because of inflation.
- Speculative investments are incredibly risky. Always have been, and always will be.
- Most people are not taking advantage of the tax benefits available to them.
This week’s hidden facts of finance * The National Retail Federation estimates a 9.5% increase in spending this Nov./Dec. * Gold is only a reputation hedge reputationally, not statistically. * Stocks deliver regardless of whether inflation is high or low (the real inflation hedge). * Chinese personal wealth is leaping 77-fold to $120 Trillion.
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Inflation is hitting 40 year highs and investors are aggressively jumping into the market to make up for what they’re losing. But is that the best approach? Other investors are keeping their powder dry by holding cash… but history has proven that holding cash is a losing proposition from the start. How can you hedge against inflation effectively? This episode is focused on answering that question, and not based on opinion, but on facts that have come to light through the course of history. Find out what your only real hedge against inflation is, on this episode.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * High inflation after a 40 year bull market… is this the new normal? [1:13] * Why stocks, equities, and dividends are the only hedge against inflation [4:26] * Diversification is the only way to succeed in long-term investing [8:19] * The Tipping Point: Proactively protecting yourself against bubbles popping [10:10] * Hidden Facts of Finance [19:29]
Inflation like we’ve not seen for 40 years, and bullish investors respond After a season of all-time market highs we’re seeing inflation spike due to a number of factors. The response from investors is that everybody seems to be getting into the market, but is that wise? As Warren Buffet has been known to say, “Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” It could be time for investors to heed his advice. What is a good inflation hedge? Stocks, equities, and dividends, with statistics as proof that it’s the right approach. Listen to hear the facts.
This week on the tipping point: Proactively protect yourself against market bubbles There’s only one thing in the stock market that doesn’t change: investor behavior. It’s always the case that people think they can correctly guess when stocks are going to continue to rise and when they are going to fall. That’s one of the main reasons why people become indignant any time you suggest that their favorite investment is a bubble. The insist they will get out before it crashes, but as far as we can tell, there’s still no reliable way to know when that is going to be. Everyone is afraid of missing out, so they ride those bubbles much longer than they should, fail to diversify and invest wisely, and lose a ton when the bubble pops. Boring investments are the way to go, because over time your portfolio will consistently grow when you keep your portfolio in solid, proven stocks.
This week’s hidden facts of finance Rivian is one of the bright so-called stars in the electric vehicle industry and its market cap is an unbelievable $140 billion. It makes no sense.
Futures and options are proven ways to get burned for most investors.
The dollar compared to the S&P 500: the dollar has no leg to stand on.
Going to the mall is a thing again.
Listen to hear all the details on these topics.
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What's up! It's episode 60 of Payne Points of Wealth! Hard to believe we're 60 episodes in! We've got late nineties stock market fever. Literally, everything is going up right now. We've got a huge melt-up. It's starting to look a lot like the late nineties when those internet stocks were just rocking. We're going to tell you why we think this is a lot like the late nineties. We'll hit on what you have to be careful about because there are bubbles forming, what you need to avoid in your portfolio and inflation. On the tipping point today, we're going to talk about financial sabotage. What are you doing right now that's sabotaging your path to financial independence.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Never seen a market like this [1:43] * As good as it gets [5:25] * The Tipping Point [9:50] * Don’t allow your risk tolerance to fluctuate with how well your portfolio performs [12:11] * Greed takes over fear [15:15] * Hidden Facts of Finance [19:29]
Could it get any better for the economy? Profits are extremely strong right now. Look at the third-quarter earnings, it's just been through the roof. Next quarter’s earnings are going to be good again too. We've got a hiring frenzy going on. Unemployment's coming down precipitously. We have all these people that have come off unemployment benefits getting back in the workforce and wages are going up. What's better than that. You're getting a raise at work, you have more money to spend and the fed isn't raising rates anytime soon, they're going to keep the party going. This is probably as good as it gets when it comes to the outlook for the economy.
This week on the tipping point: Financial sabotage One thing that we've found managing all the accounts that we manage is a lot of times people put themselves in a position of financial sabotage. They make decisions that hurt them on their path to financial independence. So in this episode, we talk about some of the things that we find that people do that you need to avoid so you don't sabotage your financial life.
Don’t stalk your portfolio. Investing is hard, it's counterintuitive, when there's good news sometimes the market sells off. If there's bad news, the market goes up. It doesn't seem to make sense. If you're watching every day, checking your portfolio balance every day, it's a recipe for disaster. I can't tell you how many short-term focus investors have failed in the long run because they couldn't handle the pressure.
Don’t allow your risk tolerance to fluctuate with how well your portfolio performs. The whole idea of diversification is that you're going to have something that's not working. If everything's working at the same time, then everything will also be NOT working at the same time.
This week’s hidden facts of finance Cryptocurrency, an asset class (if we want to call it that) younger than the iPhone is closing in on $3 trillion in market cap. That’s equal to about a quarter of the world's mined gold or the entire money supply of the United Kingdom. That's insane.
The resulting labor crunch has boosted wages and emboldened workers to fight for a better deal. Work stoppages in 2021 have already surpassed last year's 10 and it may be the start of a trend reversal. Work stoppages numbered 145 in 1981 dropping to 5 in 2009, it looks like unions could be back.
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What's up? It's episode 59 of Payne Points of Wealth and supply chains around the world are easing up. COVID cases globally are going down and profits are at an all-time record high as stock markets around the world are hitting all-time record highs. The question is, is it all going to fall off a cliff? Is this all too good to be true or is the economy going to continue chugging along? We'll look at some long-term tailwinds that could keep this economy moving into the roaring twenties along with your financial independence plan. We're also going to talk about those specific variables that you need to address in your financial life to make sure you're financially sound. You don't want to miss it.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * A rockin’ market! [1:11] * Everybody is doing well [3:36] * Tailwinds for the economy [6:43] * Don’t confuse brains in a bull market [9:03] * The Tipping Point [11:07] * Having a tax-efficient portfolio [13:21] * How long do you expect to live? [16:11] * How lucky do you feel? [18:19] * Hidden Facts of Finance [21:23]
Economic tailwinds There’s all this talk about how we're going to have a big burst of spending coming out of the pandemic and then it's just going to cool off again. Well, millennials are 25% of the population and are essentially going into their peak spending and earning years. Historically, the ages 45-55 tend to be when you spend the most money. You have household formation, kids, and more big-ticket items that you're buying. With the largest cohort of any population in America going right into that, it’s like the baby boomers back in the 80s', it’s going to lead to a lot of spending. Then you have this huge infrastructure bill coming down the line and when that passes that will be even more spending. Top all that off with the massive amount of inventories businesses are trying to build back up...doesn’t sound like a slowdown is anywhere in the near future.
This week on the tipping point: Customizable variables When it comes to building financial plans for the families we manage here at PCM everyone's situation is a little bit different. So in this episode, we discussed some of the variables you need to customize for your unique plan.
When it comes to financial planning and your portfolio, sometimes we become more enamored with the value of the portfolio. Especially with our 360 portal where you can see how much you're worth. It's kind of fun as the market goes up to check and see how you did each day, week, or month—but it's not just about appreciation—you've got to have the income.
How much does your principal generate in income after taxes and inflation? It's so important to sit down with your advisor every year and look at what's important to you. What are your variables? What do you want to accomplish this year? Do you want to take a big trip? Do you want to give money to your grandchildren's education plans? Backing into those numbers is the most important thing to figure out how much income you're gonna need. Listen to the episode to find out which variables you should address.
This week’s hidden facts of finance In the most recent quarter, Spain added 5.6 percentage points to its headline growth. French household spending jumped a whopping 21.5% annualized contributing to 10.5 percentage points to their growth rate. In fact, third-quarter growth results for the entire Eurozone outpaced the good old USA, well maybe not outpace as much as they're finally catching up because they're now playing out of the same playbook. They realize they've got to open their economies. It's not the end of the world. Spain, France, England, Germany, are all full of ordinary people, just like our country, and they want to get out and spend again. They want to live life! Europe is booming. The global economy is booming. We're seeing stocks go up all over the world so make sure you don't have all your money just in the S&P 500 because there are plenty of opportunities outside the US. Go global!
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What's up it's episode 58 pain points of wealth and profits this earnings season are phenomenal! Companies are beating estimates by a landslide. It doesn't matter that supply chain issues or labor costs are going up. It's all inflationary. But guess what? These companies just keep raising prices on you and me, which is making their profits go through the roof. So what does this mean between now and the end of the year? As the market continues to go higher are we going to finally get that correction in stocks that big sell-off that Wall Street has been telling us about? We're going to give you our vantage point, exactly what you should be doing strategically between now and the end of the year. On the tipping point today we're going to drop some wisdom on you. When it comes to your financial independence plan, we're going to give you some insights that you can apply to your portfolio, your financial plan, to get you on track, to be financially independent.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * When’s the big drop coming? [1:24] * Pipeline conspiracies? [3:41] * The faults in being priced to perfection [6:49] * The Tipping Point [10:39] * Crisis is opportunity riding on a dangerous wind [11:15] * A feather in the hand is better than a bird in the air [13:05] * Accept something you cannot change and you'll feel better [14:43] * A foolish man listens to his heart [16:33] * Don't let statistics do a number on you [17:26] * Hidden Facts of Finance [20:14]
Pipeline conspiracies? It's amazing how the world changes, all of a sudden, how do we not have enough oil supply? The world's been awash in oil then all of a sudden it’s not?. I love a good conspiracy, and a lot of people are saying, or the “experts” are saying that the Biden administration is limiting production. I have a different theory on this. Perhaps there's just worldwide collusion going on. All the big energy companies are saying "You know what? We make a lot more money when oil is over $80 a barrel. Let’s just chill out on the production side of things. We will slow down on producing oil right now because when the price is at $30, that's terrible for profits." So I suspect there is big manipulation going on and I think it's all of these global oil companies who are very happy to slow down the production and keep those prices up!
This week on the tipping point: Financial Fortune Cookies When you go to the Chinese restaurant nothing's better than getting that fortune cookie at the end and reading the wisdom within. Let’s open up your fortune cookie and apply it to your financial life and goals to be financially independent because there’s nothing funnier than getting a fortune cookie to help you run your portfolio!
Crisis is opportunity riding on a dangerous wind. Sounds great but it reminds me of what Warren Buffet says, it is wise for investors to be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. We're emotional human beings. It's so easy to panic when prices are going down or when you have that fear of missing out and overload your portfolio on what's going up the most.
A feather in the hand is better than a bird in the air. I think the point is it's better to protect what you have than trying to reach for the stars and putting everything that you have at risk.
Accept something you cannot change and you'll feel better. I think right now is a perfect example of that. We have so much uncertainty about our taxes going up. Are they going to pass another $2 trillion in stimulus? Is the dollar going to be worthless in a couple of years? Is inflation just going to destroy our purchasing power? Is the dollar going to be so weak that we can't afford anything? The list goes on and on.
A foolish man listens to his heart. Don't use your gut feelings when it comes to investing. It's never right.
This week’s hidden facts of finance Home prices are up a record 19.5% in the past year, according to Case Shiller data. However, home prices were removed from the official prices index, owing to political and statistical issues. If they were still included, inflation would be running at a 10% clip rivaling the early 80s'. It just goes to show you real estate is really inflated right now. Inflation is real and not transitory and if you've been listening to the Payne Points of Wealth Podcast you have known that for a year!
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What's up! It's episode 57 of Payne Points of Wealth and the all-asset melt-up is upon us! Everything is going up right now. Oil prices are surging to all-time record highs every single day. Bitcoin, all-time record highs. Stocks, all-time record highs. What should you be doing right now? Is this a big bubble? Can it continue? We're gonna break down exactly what's going on in the market. We're also going to talk about your financial independence. Do you have a date when you want to be financially free or retired? We're going to show you exactly how to pick that date, how to build that plan, and get you on track for your financial independence plan.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Bad, bad, bad...BS! [1:05] * Economics 101 [3:44] * Bitcoin confusion [4:58] * Stocks are backed by real assets [7:44] * The Tipping Point [9:40] * Pick a date vs picking an amount [11:06] * It's not just accumulating wealth, it's investing that wealth properly [13:26] * Following emotional market whims [16:09] * Hidden Facts of Finance [19:58]
Do you want to be punished at the pump or in your portfolio? A year, year and a half ago, we had a -$37 a barrel print on oil. Why? There was no demand! The economy was shut down globally because of the pandemic. Nobody needed oil. It was sitting out in tankers in the ocean with nowhere to go. Now it's $85 a barrel. Why? Because demand is strong. The economy's booming, not just here but globally. When the economy does well, oil usage goes up. When you have supply and demand the price goes up. Guess what goes up with oil? The stock market. You want oil to go up, not because you want to spend a lot of money at the gas pump, but because you want to see your portfolio go up. So let's go oil higher, higher, higher!
This week on the tipping point: When is it safe to live off of your portfolio? Let's talk about retirement. In this day and age, it's different. If you love what you do, you'll never work a day in your life as somebody once said. We think it's more important to think about financial independence and having a big pile of go-to-hell money, where you can decide to do what you want to do every day. A lot of times we talk about wanting to have X amount of money at a certain date. Whether it's a million dollars or 3 million, whatever that arbitrary number is.
It's more important to pick that date because for everybody that pile of money will be different. Maybe you have a pension, or social security coming in, what if you have an inheritance, so it really just depends on you specifically. So first you've got to decide l when is that gonna be? Is that five years from now, 10 years from now? If you're a millennial, maybe you want to take a break from working for a couple of years to travel and then go back to work. We have to solve for all of these problems, but you have to begin with the end in mind and that's picking that date before you think about the pile of cash.
This week’s hidden facts of finance When Robinhood last reported quarterly earnings, the trading platform said it had 22.5 million funded accounts. The vast majority of those are considered active. Up 130% from a year earlier, that's a lot of people getting into the stock market. A lot of people are investing in the stock market for the first time and like everyone who starts out as a newbie investor usually they pick some very speculative ideas and end up losing money. So Robinhood is probably pretty appropriately named, taking money from the poor and giving to the rich wall street executives who don't care about you. At some point, they'll learn and give us a call.
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What's up! It's episode 56 of Payne Points of Wealth and earning season is upon us. For all intents and purposes, it should be a blowout again this quarter, company's profits should be through the roof. We have the banks reporting this week so far, JP Morgan's reported, BlackRock blew out the estimates. These are all good omens, but funny enough, investors are extremely bearish right now with plenty of cash on the sidelines, waiting for a correction. We're gonna address that today. We're gonna tell you what you should be doing with your money. How to play the next move in the market, how they'll play the rest of the year as inflation continues to kick in. Oil, it's over $80 a barrel! At a seven-year high! Folks. Inflation. Is. Real! It's here. We've been telling you about it. We're gonna talk about that. On the Tipping Point today we're going to talk about maybe you've done a great job saving for your financial independence plan, but what are you missing right now that you need to add into your plan to make sure that you're completely financially free. We're gonna break it down.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Everybody’s worried about…? [1:31] * Is a melt-up coming? [3:07] * A great example of how markets work [6:07] * The Tipping Point [10:14] * Too much risk is still risky[12:36] * The ticking tax timebomb [15:56] * It’s ok to live a little [17:22] * Hidden Facts of Finance [19:57]
A real-life example of how the markets work Here's a great example of how markets work. If you look at what we call the rotation trade—when growth stocks suddenly stop leading the market and value stocks pick up—all of a sudden financials, energy, these stocks are doing better. If you go back 12 months, you’d see that's when that transition started to happen. Long before anybody recognized it. Long before any advisors or strategists or economists called it. If you look back at the trailing 12-month numbers, energy is up almost 100% versus growth up just 20%. It's amazing how the markets are able to see these things months to a year ahead of time.
This week on the tipping point: Covering your bases We've found that a lot of you that come to see us have done such a great job on the savings front. You've done a great job with your budget, you have minimal debt, you've learned to save, and you've built up a nice net worth. What we have found is that you don't always have all your bases covered. So, we thought we would talk about some of the problems you face, even if you're a diligent saver or if you have a sizable net worth at this point, that's getting you closer to that financial independence.
Number one on the list is having too much in cash!
When you're saving money, a lot of us think about saving money in cash. The problem with that is it's getting less than zero. If you think about your savings in terms of super savings, you want that money to work for you. Sitting in cash is like having a lot of employees that you pay, but none of them work. Check out the episode to hear what other bases you should be covering!
This week’s hidden facts of finance This month the energy department released a study that says as much as 40% of US electricity could be produced by solar in 2035, 45% by 2050, but today solar only provides about 4% of overall energy. That's a gigantic leap, right? Renewables are the way of the future, but they're coming a lot later than everybody thinks.
Today it costs more than a penny to make a penny. According to the US Mint, it costs them roughly 1.70 cents per coin.
Warren Buffet, considered the world's most successful investor, made 99.6% of his 87.5 billion fortune after the age of 52. as much as 72 billion of his wealth came after he turned 65. He started investing at the tenure age of 11 and paid his first taxes at age of 13.
Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
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Welcome back! It's episode 55 of Payne Points of Wealth and inflationary pressure is mounting. We've literally had the 10-year treasury up above 1.5% as central banks around the world are starting to indicate that they're going to start to taper and potentially raise interest rates sometime next year. In addition to that, we've got oil prices surging around the world right now, a natural gas shortage in Europe, and costs are going up because oil literally runs everything. So what do you make of the current economic environment? Meanwhile, we still have fighting on Capitol Hill as they're looking to spend trillions and raise taxes. It's a tumultuous time but we're going to give you the game plan you need right now to succeed. On the Tipping Point today we'll talk about how your financial independence plan is like having a great flight plan to make sure you can create the most secure financial situation for yourself. Don’t miss it!
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Where are the corrections happening? [1:27] * Mutating economy [4:26] * Where the economists always get it wrong [6:53] * The Tipping Point [10:30] * Being prepared for turbulence [15:40] * Hidden Facts of Finance [21:12]
A mutating economy bodes well for those in the ‘stuff’ making industry We talk about the fear of this virus mutating. Well, we mutate. The economy, the global economy, it all mutates. We've changed how we do things and the economies are booming as a result of mutating away from the way things used to be done. Now, there are some near-term problems like supply chain disruptions. But if you're making stuff right now, if you have stuff in your inventory, you can charge whatever you want for it. What a great place to be. Those in the stuff manufacturing business aren’t sitting at home twiddling their thumbs, they’re working 24/7 to get more stuff produced and manufactured so they can sell it!
Meanwhile, all this has inflationary implications, but nothing like we had in the 70s’. We're going to have higher inflation, it will be a little stickier, but we will probably end up at 2.5-3%, nothing to be afraid of, but something you have got to hedge your portfolio for.
This week on the tipping point: Financial flight plans Like anything in life, it's important to have a plan, especially when you're flying, you have to have a flight plan. Your flight plan will be dictated by what the weather's like, the winds, how many passengers you have, how much fuel you have to take. It's important before you take off to have a good idea of not only where you're going but how you intend to get there. That same principle applies to your investment portfolio. It's not about making the most money, it’s about getting to your destination as safely as possible.
The other thing about a flight plan is you're going to have turbulence along the way that comes out of the blue. That's what happens with the markets, like the pandemic, no one could have predicted it. It came out of the blue, the drop in the markets came out of nowhere. It's not how you react in the moment, it's about having that proactive plan ahead of time. You have to be prepared for turbulence in your portfolio. Most of you aren’t and you don’t even realize it. If the world falls apart tomorrow, you're not protected. That's why we always take your portfolio through that stress test.
Is your portfolio built and designed to get through that turbulence?
This week’s hidden facts of finance The total value of US stocks is now over $51 trillion, a $16 trillion dollar rise from pre-pandemic values. To put that $16 trillion advance into perspective—it took over 200 years from the founding of the earliest US stock exchange in 1790 to the 2007-09 financial crisis for the stock market to create its first $16 trillion in value. Wow! So that's an amazing amount of money in the course of a very short period of time, during a pandemic and a global shutdown to boot! If there's any doubt as to where you should be investing your money, with a $16 trillion increase in just 18 months, sounds like the stock market is the place to be.
Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris * http://PayneCM.com * Follow on Twitter * Follow on Facebook * Follow on LinkedIn * Subscribe on YouTube * Follow on Instagram
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It's episode 54 of Payne Points of Wealth and the FED finally admitted it! Inflation is not as transitory as they initially thought—as we've been telling on this podcast, week after week. Interest rates moved 20% last week and we're starting to see the bond market move...in the wrong direction! Supply chains around America are a mess right now! You can't hire enough truckers. You can't hire enough people to work at the ports. We're seeing a domino effect and huge delays on all products and services as they move slowly across the country. What does this mean for you? What does this mean for your portfolio? We're going to give you our view of exactly what's happening in the economy right now and what you need to be doing strategically. Money's moving out of tech stocks and into those old-school cyclical stocks that we love. In addition to that on the Tipping Point today, we're going to talk about your financial advisor. Are they really, really nice, but they don't give you good advice? We're going to tell you exactly how to handle that.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Supply chain problems causing trouble [1:32] * Not just inflation on products [4:41] * Shifting dynamics [7:49] * The Tipping Point [10:54] * Not having a full picture [13:02] * Breaking things down so it’s understandable to you [15:41] * Hidden Facts of Finance [21:37]
What’s wreaking havoc on the economy but not the market? Companies can't find enough workers, even if the ports were open 24/7, there's not enough people to man them, there are ships sitting for weeks waiting to unload their cargo. When one part of the supply chain gets messed up, maybe a truck doesn't show up for a shipment on time, it just affects everything! It's just wreaking havoc on the entire economy right now. Inventory is running low, semiconductors are backlogged, steel and lumber are going up like crazy. People are building everywhere. Who knows what people will fill these homes with, maybe beach chairs and sleeping bags because you can't get any furniture or appliances.
With all of this going on, the market doesn't seem to care because here's the thing about the market... the market looks forward! All of this is priced in already. We are getting a little bit of corrective action, but that's primarily because the FED didn't say transitory last week, which means they are starting to believe—like we've been telling you—that inflation is going up. So interest rates are going up and hopefully, all of you listened because those bond funds are dropping like rocks! You have to get into fixed income, not bond funds.
This week on the tipping point: Nice advisors with bad service Do you have a nice advisor who isn’t doing such a nice job? People are hesitant to make a switch for a variety of reasons. It seems easier to stay with someone because you have already made a time investment there, or they have handled so-and-so’s finance for years so they must be doing something right, or you’ve already moved from one bad advisor to this new bad advisor and it just seems like they are all the same so why bother.
We are here to tell you there are good advisors!
Good advisors are going to break things down into a simple way for you to understand it. Everything we're doing here is not rocket science, if it feels like rocket science, you've got a problem. Not only should you be able to understand what's in your portfolio, you should also understand how it relates to you and the goals that you're trying to achieve. Don't go with an advisor where you get mystery investments. Check out the segment for more on what a good advisor looks like!
This week’s hidden facts of finance There are 13 US corporate tax hikes on record going back to 1925, and in the ensuing 12 months, the S&P rose 9 times averaging 11.1%. On the personal income side, Congress has hiked the top bracket 14 times and the S&P rose in the next 12 months after 10 of them averaging a whopping 16.8%. Sounds like raising taxes is actually good for the market. Who would have thought?
One of the biggest fears that clients have right now is that a tax hike is going to have a negative impact on the market but based on these statistics it sounds like that's probably not going to be the reality. I think the bottom line is a bull market is going to be a bull market, regardless of short-term moves and taxes. As we've said, we know money's got to go somewhere, better be bullish than to be foolish!
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It’s been a tumultuous week, with China Evergrande Group possibly going default on $300 BILLION of bonds. Is this going to be another Lehman event like the talking heads are saying?
We also have the Delta variant rising around the world and impacting the decisions nations are making regarding their societies and economies… and in the U.S., the government wants to raise money by taxing you. There’s a lot going on and it has investors spooked. What should you do with your investments, if anything? And how should you handle the risks involved in a time like this? Don’t miss this episode, we’re gong to provide you our insights for handing the risks times like this bring.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * A leveraged Chinese Real Estate Company is not going to be of much concern to us [1:25] * Stay on the boat even in downturns could be ahead, here’s why...[6:20] * The Tipping Point: Risk — How are you set up to handle risk? [9:05] * Hidden Facts of Finance [19:40]
Evergrande is huge in China but in the U.S. you don’t need to be concerned 100% of our clients never heard of this “Evergrande” outfit… that’s because we have no interest in ever getting involved in leveraged Chinese Real Estate companies. We’d be going from the Penthouse to the Basement if we did, and it’s just not what we do for our clients. The hype we’re seeing in the media is overblown and the correction that’s been forecast doesn’t appear to be happening as of this episode. Even if it did come about, corrections are almost always temporary. They are typically followed by a huge record high. Remember, it’s not rocket science, there are trillions of dollars out there driving the market higher. The real power is in having a diversified portfolio.
This week on the tipping point: RISK and Risk Management One of the items we deal with day after day for our 2000 clients is risk. There are many types of risk to consider, including market risk. When markets go up and up and up… and honestly, that’s when you have the most amount of risk. But that’s not typically how people think about it. And on the converse, when the market is down is when you have the least amount of risk. So if everything in your portfolio is going up, that’s a bad sign. 1999 to 2000 is a great example, when the tech bubble was going up and up and up, and then the correction came hard. It took people 15 years to break even after that, so keep clear on your diversification objectives.
Another huge risk to consider is interest rate risk. It hasn’t been a huge risk lately because interest rates have been low, and when interest rates go up, bond funds go down. Even though bonds are touted as the most stable part of your portfolio, they can fluctuate in a time like this as much as 60%. That’s not stable at all. Listen to hear about the risk inflation and lifetime expectancy bring into the mix and more!
This week’s hidden facts of finance The American public debt is ¼ larger than the economy and it’s grown substantially. Fed assets have grown 11-fold as well.
Corrections happen once every 17 months typically, but the only way to win is to be in. Don’t wait for the correction.
AMC Theaters attendance topped pre-pandemic numbers for the corresponding days in 2019. Definitely, the economy is reopening and it’s just getting started.
Listen to hear more of the hidden facts of finance that you commonly don’t hear and oftentimes, will shock you.
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- See the hype about the On SpotifyEvergrande default
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Welcome back for episode 52 of Payne Points of Wealth. That’s one full year of musings from the Payne boys! We’re glad you’ve stuck around! Well, Labor Day is over and we are officially in the fall season! Cryptocurrency is apparently one of the primary currencies in El Salvador now. The world is getting crazy as always. We're starting to see a little bit of a slowdown in the economy. If you looked at the employment numbers that came out (while we're recording this), they came in weaker than expected. There's a lot of economists, a lot of strategists right now that believe we're going to an economic slowdown. We're going to give you the truth today. We're going to tell you what's really going on with the economy, and how to invest your money. On the tipping point today, we're going to play a little bit of financial jeopardy. We're going to talk about some financial terms you need to understand if you're going to get on your path to financial independence.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Does the market have to go down just because it’s September? [2:07] * Big bubbles [5:20] * The Tipping Point [9:03] * What’s known for high fees, lack of liquidity, and misleading promises? [9:43] * What requires an advisor to put a client's best interests first? [11:34] * What phenomenon is eminent but no denying that it will be back eventually? [13:20] * What forces retirees to drain their retirement accounts [15:38] * Hidden Facts of Finance [18:56]
The most powerful force of monetary and fiscal policy we've ever seen There's been $32 trillion of fiscal and monetary stimulus created since the pandemic started. $32 trillion! All the global GDP in the world, every year, is something like $93 trillion. Think about how supercharged the entire global economy is right now. It's basically on steroids. It's almost laughable that any economists or strategists would think we're going to get some sort of real sell-off because you're fighting the most powerful force of monetary and fiscal policy we've ever seen. Literally ever! That's why we're going to have big bubbles in certain areas of the economy. We have big bubbles going on right now. You just don't know when they're going to burst.
This week on the tipping point: Financial Jeopardy In this episode, we play our own little game of Financial Jeopardy and talk about some critical financial terms that all our listeners really need to understand. In the spirit of Jeopardy, we're going to give you the answer and you're going to follow up with the question. Check out the episode to see if you got it right and to hear what the Payne men have to say about it.
1 It's known by many for its high fees, lack of liquidity, and misleading promises. This financial product gives the financial services world a bad name.
2 This requires a financial advisor to put his client's best interests before his/her own. Unfortunately, not all financial professionals are governed by it.
3 This financial phenomenon is thought by some to the eminent and by others to be far off in the distance, but there's no denying that it will be back eventually.
This week’s hidden facts of finance As of early August, global equity funds have seen 605 billion of inflows year to date. Now to put that in perspective, global equity funds have seen 727 billion of cumulated inflows over the last 25 years. Therefore in 2021 alone, there have been 40% higher inflows than the last 25 years combined. That's insane. If that's not a melt-up, I don't know what is.
The US population increased 0.4% in 2020 to 329 million Americans marking the slowest growth rate since 1901. A falling birth rate and an aging population could portend major implications for our economy long term. You've got an aging population then fewer people going into the workforce means fewer taxes and more people for the government to have to support. Maybe people should probably start having more kids.
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This is episode 51 of Payne Points of Wealth. You can't stop this market. We can't stop this market. The market is literally at all-time record highs every single day. We've got some news from the FED signaling that they're not going to raise interest rates anytime soon. A very bullish time which means the world's going to stay washed in cash. The Delta variant of the coronavirus seems to be slowing down a little bit, as we're recording this. Giving us some light at the end of the tunnel with what's going on with the economy. We're going to talk about what we see, what's going on, and where you should invest your money. On the tipping point today, we're going to talk about literally every age of your financial life, whether you're 20, 30, 40, 50, 60. What you need to be thinking about at every stage of the journey to make sure you're going to be financially independent.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Record highs & a re-rotation [1:20] * Pop quiz! What is the best performing asset class over a 100 year period? [3:31] * The market isn’t in the now [5:54] * The Tipping Point [11:11] * When you’re in your 20’s [11:45] * When you’re in your 30’s [13:58] * When you’re in your 40’s [15:56] * When you’re in your 50’s and beyond [17:41] * Hidden Facts of Finance [23:18]
This week on the tipping point: Investing over a lifetime Financial planning is a journey, not a destination. Here at Payne Capital Management, we've found that each age represents an important landmark as it relates to your financial independence. What should you be thinking about at those different stages of your financial journey? Here’s a quick look, but listen to the episode for a full breakdown!
Your twenties are the hardest time to invest because you're trying to buy big things like a car or a house, and you're just starting out in your career. But, it's the best time to get into the habit of automating your savings. Small investments in your 20s will pay off BIGTIME down the road.
In your 30s you typically start to create a little more wealth. You're a little further along in your career, money starts to get bigger, and the decisions you have to make get a bit more serious. You’ll want to have a plan not just for your creation of wealth, but also for the preservation of wealth. You should also create an estate plan, you want to have a will when you're in your 30s.
When you get into your 40s, the stakes only get higher. This is when you should start thinking about streamlining your finances. You may have a couple of 401k plans from different employers. Perhaps an advisor who's giving you advice on your IRAs, maybe a brokerage account with somebody else. Consolidating all those finances and getting a streamlined game plan is the key when you get into your 40s.
Your 50's are what we call the financial red zone. It's a time where you're able to maximize your contributions. Sometimes you can't do it when you're younger, so in your 50's, you want to make sure that you catch up with everything and that you're prepared for the day where you're not going to have that paycheck coming in.
In your 60's you're retired or getting close. Your 401k or retirement plan is likely a huge part of your net worth. The nice thing is if you're 59-1/2, for a lot of plans, you can do an in-service distribution. You can roll the money out of the plan with no tax, put it into an individual retirement account for yourself, and invest in a more customized way. You'll also want to start looking into things like Roth conversions because at age 72 you have to start taking money out of those pre-tax accounts.
This week’s hidden facts of finance If the US taxes all Americans at 100% there will still be an $8 trillion federal budget deficit. I think our deficit is a problem. What an inconvenient truth! If they confiscate all the billionaires' money today, we won't even meet the current spending proposals. That's very unfortunate when you run out of billionaires. If the billionaires don't have any money to pay the taxes, guess who they'll be coming for? Taxes are going higher. So do your tax planning this year. Don't wait.
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What's up! It's episode 50 of Payne Points of Wealth, hard to believe we're 50 episodes in and we've been doing this podcast for a year. We thank you for your support. As always, there is a lot going on right now in the economy and the stock market. We have the Delta variants still running rampant around the world. Is it going to slow the economy down is the big question on the investor's mind? As we're recording this right now, the government's looking to pass trillions of dollars. What impact is that going to have on the economy? What impact does that have on you and how do you position yourself to win right now as the market continues to go higher? We're going to break it down for you. We have a special guest on the tipping point, Kristan Vermeulen founder and CEO of Knotical Public Relations. She’s also the podcast host of Makers of the USA. She talks with business owners all across the country. She's going to give us the pulse on that so we can get a better idea of what's going on in the economy.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Never trust the consensus [1:30] * Are we coming into a melt-up? [4:18] * Which market are they talking about? [6:12] * The only place there is no opportunity [8:35] * The Tipping Point [10:52] * What is a maker? [12:42] * When unemployment benefits end will we see more job applicants? [15:24] * Will small businesses keep struggling, retire, or sell out to large corps? [19:22] * Hidden Facts of Finance [24:24]
Never trust what every investor believes in unison In a year where volatility is basically non-existent. The market was actually down last week. Like 1%, if we can even call that down at all. That just seems to be the theme, there's no sell-off. One thing we've talked about a lot on this podcast is never trust the consensus. Never trust what every strategist and every investor believes in unison. I hear it over and over again that we're in the weakest part of the year, until Halloween, and that the market's probably going to sell 10-15%, the market needs to have a correction. When everybody's looking for the same thing, we know it doesn't happen and this market just won't let you in. There's a lot of people in cash sweating it out right now.
This week on the tipping point: The pulse of America Our guest Kristan Vermeulen founder and CEO of Knotical Public Relations is also the host of a really cool podcast, Makers of the USA. Basically, Kristan goes out and talks to a lot of business owners. American-made, niche type of companies. She explains that her definition of a maker is a broad term, you have your woodworkers, metal workers, folks that make products but she also considers a maker to be a musician, photographer, or videographer.
The Payne point that has been such a challenge amongst these makers and their mom and pop shops is they have to utilize their personal assets or personal funds to stay afloat. And like many businesses they are having a hard time with the scarcity of materials and finding workers. Unlike big companies in this community, they find it scary to increase their product prices because they're afraid of losing customers. They don't want to miss out on the customers they already have because some sales are better than no sales. Check out the episode for the full scoop from Kristan Vermeulen!
This week’s hidden facts of finance In June, the median home price was a record $363,000. Up 23% year over year. Better than the S&P 500! Unbelievable, with all this money a wash around the world, everything's being bid up, whether it's real estate, stocks, businesses, everything but gold actually. But it isn't better than the S&P because the S&P pays a dividend. Last I checked, every month I'm paying real estate taxes. I'm paying utility bills. A home's great, but it's a place to live. As an investment, I'll take the S&P 500 any day of the week.
Resources & People Mentioned Kristan Vermeulen Knotical Public Relations and host of Makers of the USA
Nick Rossi and his episode on Makers of the USA
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What's up! It's episode 49 of Payne Points of Wealth and the world is in flux. We've got the Delta variant of the Coronavirus raging, which is causing more lockdowns and disruptions in the economy. The Taliban has taken over Afghanistan, adding geopolitical risk to the global economy. In addition to that, we've got infighting on Capitol Hill. What else is new? They're looking to spend trillions of dollars. Are our taxes going to go through the roof? Is inflation just going to run wild? We're going to address that today. On the tipping point, we're going to talk about financial disasters with your financial plan. What mistakes you don't want to make, that you need to avoid at all costs. Things we've seen over and over again that you need to avoid. We're going to break it down.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * What our podcast & the market have in common [1:15] * If everything is priced to perfection and there's no risk, then there's no opportunity [4:34] * The French market is kicking the NASDAQ’s butt! [7:39] * The Tipping Point [10:08] * Is your 401k run by a fiduciary? [12:13] * Keeping your risk in check with a balanced portfolio [15:17] * Hidden Facts of Finance [19:48]
Where to place your concerns The market always climbs a wall of worry. There's always gotta be a headwind because if everything is priced to perfection and there's no risk, then there's no opportunity. COVID of course is a risk right now, but we've already seen that movie, the market doesn't drop on the same news twice.
Meanwhile, you've got this infrastructure bill, which has gone from 3.5 trillion dollars down to a half-trillion dollars of new spending spread over 10 years. That's not even going to move the meter a little bit on the market, but we do have inflation. Inflation is something we should all be concerned about.
This week on the tipping point: Financial disasters We’re blowing the whistle on the biggest scandal in the history of the financial market since the 1900s, the mutual fund industry. We all know from every study that's been done that no money manager can outperform their underlying index. So what do they do? They take money managers and sell mutual funds and they churn the account every year, charging you more, giving you a lower return, and having you pay more taxes. If that's not a scandal, I don't know what is.
The other big issue we see right now, being in a big booming bull market is a lot of times the risk in your portfolio becomes outsized and you don't even know it. Because the market has gone up by 100% since last March when you were 50 or 60% in the market, but now you're 80, 90% in the market because there’s been so much growth. You've got to keep that risk in check. At some point, we will get a huge market sell-off or a crash and if you're not allocated correctly ahead of time, you're out of luck. Check on it right now, while things are going well, that's the time you have to make those decisions.
This week’s hidden facts of finance In the 70s, the inflation of that decade was largely a result of the explosion in energy prices. That, to a major extent, reflected oil-producing countries refusing to be paid in the ever appreciating US dollar. Could it happen again? A lot of bad things happened in the seventies like bell-bottoms and leisure suits and Bob's got pictures to prove it, but there was definitely inflation. In fact, there was hyperinflation, but a lot of it had to do with lack of productivity growth. So it wasn't just the oil companies not producing enough oil. There were a lot of other things going on that led to hyperinflation, high-interest rates, and basically the biggest bull market in bonds.
You may be hearing a lot of arguments that we're going into the 70s again with hyperinflation. We are going to see inflation but productivity, which is a big component of what's happening right now, is going through the roof. This is not like the 70s, that's a positive that says this economy is a lot different and a lot better than it was in the 1970s.
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What's up it's episode 48 pain points of wealth. And as summer's rolling along here so is the economic data. We see unemployment down to 5.4% and the economy isn’t even fully reopened yet. It's a phenomenal number! We have the unemployment benefits dropping off in September, what's that going to mean for company profits and for the economy? And inflation, inflation numbers, still looking strong, no matter what the government tells you. We're going to talk about all that today. We’re also talking about the economic data, what you can expect from earnings this year, and what you should be doing with your money! On the tipping point, where we pinpoint the Payne point having the biggest impact on your wealth, we're going to give you our rules for investing. Rules that you can apply to your portfolio to make sure that you're on your path to financial independence! Check it out!
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * More jobs than workers to fill them! [1:15] * Bullishness is cooled off and a bull market doesn’t let you in [3:46] * Higher stakes [6:28] * The Tipping Point [9:08] * The age old, excuse why we don't want to diversify [14:20] * Hidden Facts of Finance [19:42]
Time passes. Markets operate. Neither cares how you think. We recently had a client that had quite a bit of cash accumulated but didn't want us to invest it because they'd like to have some money on the sidelines in case this market pulls back. We had to explain that they're getting less than a 1% return in the money market. That they have no idea what's going to happen in the future. What if it never happens? Were they just going to let it sit on the sidelines forever?
That's the sentiment of not only our clients but a lot of the investing public. In a big booming bull market, the biggest problem is that it doesn't let you in. There are so many professional money managers, high net worth investors, and under-invested bears and bulls who are sitting on the sidelines waiting to get the dip that came last March. They're thinking they’re going to buy stocks when they're cheap because they missed the opportunity to get in when they should have.
That's why you always have to have a strategy. Always be fully invested. Always be invested based on your goals because the market doesn't accommodate. Time passes. Markets operate. Neither cares how you think. And if you're not in, you are missing out!
This week on the tipping point When it comes to the finances of the families we advise, we have some definitive rules that we apply to every financial plan that we work on. Let’s discuss one of the top principles that listeners can apply to their own financial planning and investing. That being, when it comes to investing, there's no reward without risk but if it seems too good to be true, it probably is. That's why we have bubbles. People would rather invest in something that's bubblicious that sounds so good, so sexy, so hot, how could you lose? There's tremendous risk in SPACs, crypto, and hedge funds!
Anything that can go up big can go down big. Crypto is a great example of that. We've seen a wild roller coaster ride in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. However, it was only a few years ago in 2017 when it went down 82%. And you’d be foolish to think that any asset class that can go up hundreds of percent, can't go down 80, 90% as well and that it can't happen several times. The opposite is also true in types of investments where they guarantee a certain return. But the reality is that that return may not keep up with inflation. So you sacrifice longer-term returns for “safety”.
This week’s hidden facts of finance With nearly 3/4 of US workers fully vaccinated, many companies are trying to get workers back in person. However, based on a recent survey, about 40% of employees say they'll resign if they have to go back into the office five days a week. I really find it surprising that companies are pushing for people to be back in the office because productivity has gone through the roof. That's a hidden fact of finance that clients I've shared that with are surprised to hear, that productivity actually went up. But think about it. You're not sitting in traffic waiting to get to the office. You're not in the airport, flying out to see a client. Eventually, we're going to do more face-to-face meetings, but I think we have this hybrid workspace going on forever.
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It's episode 47 of Payne Points of Wealth and it's rinse, wash, repeat as earnings just keep coming in better and better as of this recording. Tech companies are coming out with earnings this week, and they're just blowing the doors off estimates. No surprises there. Meanwhile, this new variant of the COVID virus is running rampant around the globe. Is that going to slow economic growth? Is that going to be a problem for the stock market? And Bitcoin is having a revival. Is Bitcoin the currency of the future? Maybe it is now. We're going to break it all down for you. On the tipping point today, we're going to talk about mindless diversification. What mindless ways do you diversify your money that is slowing progress to your goals? We're going to tell you exactly how to diversify your money. We've got a great show for you, check it out.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * A bull market waits for no one [1:17] * Financial engineering [3:36] * Negativity about good news [5:27] * Supply & demand [8:31] * The Tipping Point [10:55] * You don’t want an all or none strategy [13:08] * Overlap, a risk hot spot [16:57] * Hidden Facts of Finance [20:43]
What investing is NOT... You may think investing is about making money or outperforming. It's not. It's about getting that return on investment that you need to achieve to get to your goals. That's why we created the A to B approach and it's at point A where you build that foundation of passive income streams that you have to incorporate into your plan. Because you have to make the right decisions. You can make some really bad decisions on the most important income streams of your life, but do you want to?
This week on the tipping point: Mindless Diversification One of the most critical aspects of anyone's financial plan is income. Not only do you have to have an income plan, but is your income diversified? As we know from the 2000 or so families that we manage at our firm mindless diversification is mindless. Not only is it mindless but when you have mindless diversification, it's a minefield.
You may think you have a lot of different investments and that you actually have true diversification. However, as we know Wall Street loves to sell you what's working the best, in many different forms. You may own a growth fund over here and it has a different name on it than the other growth fund you own over there, but they are all the same. Or owning something like cryptocurrency and growth stocks, a lot of times, because they're working at the same time when the music stops, they're probably all going to stop working at the same time as well. And that's not true diversification.
This week’s hidden facts of finance The housing market's fundamentals are strong from the explosion in births around 33 years ago, consumers born then are entering their peak years for starting families and buying homes. The current situation is nothing like the bubble of the 2000s when one person was buying four houses as speculation. There's a generation that's bigger and more impactful than the boomers. They're no longer on the couch in their parents' basement. They're buying homes. They're making big money.
One out of every three new clients that come through our door is a millennial. It's an ongoing bull market with the biggest generation, since Bob's favorite, the baby boomers. It also stands in complete contrast to all the videos out there talking about a big real estate crash coming. Based on that supply-demand demographics right now, we're probably not going to see some sort of housing crash.
Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
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What's up! It's episode 46 of Payne Points of Wealth and it was a crazy week on the street of dreams. We had a mini sell-off or mini correction on Monday as markets looked like they were ready to crash, but markets were marching higher by Tuesday. Earning seasons got off to an awesome start! Company’s earnings are blowing away estimates, Economic data keeps coming in stronger and stronger. Is the party going to continue? What's going to happen between now and the end of the year? We're going to give you our viewpoint on exactly what's going on right now. On the tipping point today, we're going to talk about financial catastrophes. What could derail your entire financial plan? What do you need to be aware of to avoid any sort of disaster in your financial life? We're going to give you our blueprint for that.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Delta variant headlines driving the market [3:22] * Expect unexpected booms [5:48] * Everything is at a peak. Are stocks at a peak too? [7:47] * The Tipping Point [11:03] * Losing a spouse and access to your finances [11:59] * Taking more risk than necessary [16:46] * Hidden Facts of Finance [19:36]
Valleys in the mountains Last time we recorded this podcast the market was at all-time record high. Here we are a week later recording the podcast and the market is at an all-time record high. What correction are you talking about?
It happened so quickly. We saw some sectors sell-off like 5%, energy was down big on Monday and you just thought, okay, here it comes. We're going to get that proverbial market correction, where markets are going to sell off between 10 and 15%. Gird your loins, as someone we know used to say, but it just didn't happen. The next day all of a sudden the market turned and it hasn't looked back.
A real-world example of this is a client called on Thursday in an absolute panic because they checked their account on Monday. How come the market's crashed? We're losing all of our money. Is this the end? And I said, did you look at your account today? They said, no, so I said look at it today and tell me what you see. They went and looked, whew, everything's back to normal. I said one cold day doesn't make a winter.
This week on the tipping point: Financial catastrophes Not being involved in your finances can be a catastrophe. It seems like in every single relationship with two spouses involved, there's always one extremely interested spouse, the one who pays attention, and stays on top of everything. Then there's the spouse who isn’t, the one that doesn't care or doesn’t know. And that's a scary thing. We see this a lot. Suddenly, one spouse passes away, and the other spouse is grieving because they just lost the person they love more than anyone else in the world, and they also have to get on top of this financial mess. What we've found is there's no excuse, with all the technology we have, not to get financially organized.
One of the things we use here at Payne Capital Management is our 360 Portal, which is an electronic catchall for all things financial. It's got a document storage vault. It goes so far as to allow you to add someone onto that account so they know where everything is if something were to happen to you.
This week’s hidden facts of finance Domestic production of semiconductors has been declining for decades today. Only 12% of semiconductors are manufactured here in the good old USA. Taiwan Semiconductors Manufacturing Company alone makes up 56% of market share in certain global markets for advanced technologies. This is not the only thing that gets manufactured overseas. And that's why it's so important to not just be invested in the US but to also be invested overseas, especially in those emerging markets.
The federal deficit is now 1.3 times the size of the GDP here in the US. That's the highest it's been since the end of World War II. Plus the US has about $20.5 trillion worth of accumulated debt. If rates rise by one percentage point, that's another $285 billion of interest expense for the US government annually.
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It's episode 45 of Payne Points of Wealth. As I'm recording this right now, inflation numbers are through the roof! We’ve been warning you about it. Everyone's saying inflation has been transitory, but apparently not. Inflation numbers came in way higher than expected. We're in the midst of earning season. Companies are crushing their earnings right now. So that coupled with inflation, what does it mean for you? What does it mean for your portfolio? What's our view of the economy? We're going to break it down for you today. On the tipping point, we're going to talk about your financial independence roadmap. How do you map out financial independence? We're going to give you our viewpoint—having been doing this for a collective 75 years—on how to get yourself in a position to be financially free.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * The BIG news this week [1:18] * Will earnings call surprises be about labor costs and shortages? [4:37] * Is the market going to crash? [7:32] * The Tipping Point [9:36] * Is making money a goal? [10:32] * Risk is the key, only take the risk that you need [13:21] * Hidden Facts of Finance [17:44]
What we expect to hear from earnings calls over the next couple of weeks We're in earnings season. It's no secret earnings are going to be absolutely phenomenal. Earnings are going to blow the doors off. We expect that to happen and of course, the markets are forward-looking so it's not exactly a surprise. What the surprises are going to be— when you hear these earnings calls over the course of the next couple of weeks— is how much are their labor costs are going up? How much of the raw material costs go up and how much of those costs are going to pass on to you and me, the consumer, I'm going to guess a lot of it is going to get passed on to us. And that is simply inflationary.
This week on the tipping point: Preparing more effectively and minimize the hazards on your way to becoming financially independent Over the years we have found that becoming financially independent is a journey, not the destination. So join us in this episode to hear us discuss how to prepare more effectively and minimize the hazards along the way to becoming financially independent.
Financial planning is what it's about investing with the end in mind. You would think this is only for new investors or somebody who's got a little bit of money, but it applies to everybody.
When someone comes in with money and asks "How do I invest it?" We ask "What are your goals?" But “I want to make money” is not a goal. At the end of the day, what does that mean? There's nothing tangible about it. When you invest your money without any sort of purpose to it, it's hard to stick to a strategy. Why do you need your money to grow? So that you can retire or be financially independent?
Having enough money so that you don't have to work again (unless you want to) is definitely a goal to shoot for! Check out the episode for more!
This week’s hidden facts of finance A randomly selected stock in a randomly selected month is more likely to lose money than make money based on statistical evidence. In short, picking single stocks and holding a concentrated portfolio tends to be a losing strategy. That's why over the last 10 years, 85% of all large-cap fund managers have underperformed their underlying index and these are supposed to be the pros on Wall Street. I can't imagine that an individual investor would be all that successful trying to pick stocks if the fund managers can't even do it. All the odds and probabilities are against you yet we love to pick individual stocks. Why not just own an index and win?
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What's up! It's episode 44 of Payne Points of Wealth and we saw a market correction this past week or a little bit of a sell-off, but the major indices now sit at all-time highs again as I'm recording this. But the question is out there... is the market topping out? Are we starting to see a peak? Is the market ready to crash? Is this sugar high, those trillions of dollars, that the government's created finally coming to an end? We're going to break it down for you and give you our view of the rest of the year when it comes to the economy and the stock market. On the tipping point today, we're going to talk about a covered call strategy. You may have heard about this. Is this a strategy you should be thinking about with your portfolio to build wealth? We're going to break down what a covered call strategy is and our thoughts on it. Is it appropriate, not appropriate? We’re going to tell you about our new cryptocurrency BobCoin! You need BobCoin in your portfolio and we're going to tell you why!
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * The correction… if you blinked you missed it [1:34] * The Market is smarter than Wall Street [3:24] * The biggest problem with DIY investors [6:14] * Getting into the global market [8:13] * The Tipping Point [12:01] * BobCoin [16:23] * Hidden Facts of Finance [19:42]
Venturing outside of the US market could pay big With treasury yields at 1.3%, it makes dividend yields — which are over 2% for a lot of US stocks — very attractive. But there are other places to be than in the US. It looks pretty good around the world right now. Biden came out and said he's going after big tech. We're seeing all these antitrust suits against big tech. Not to mention the valuation or how high the prices are on a lot of these big tech stocks and if you own the S&P 500, that's 22% in five companies, Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Google. That's not diversification and the headwinds are there. They're real.
The US market isn't the only game in town! Europe looks freaking awesome right now. I never thought I would say that. But when you start looking at vaccination rates going up, dividend yields, cheaper stocks, there are so many reasons why you need to diversify your money right now. To make that a little bit more real, when you say cheaper, the S&P 500 trades at twenty and a half times its forward earnings right now. Europe on the other hand only trades at sixteen and a half times its forward earnings. I would say that's a huge discount. Buy low, sell high, that's the name of the game.
This week on the tipping point: Covered Call Strategy This week on the tipping point we are discussing a listener question.
“I listen to your podcast every week and appreciate the way your team keeps me grounded. I was wondering what your thoughts are on a covered call strategy. I generally stay away from Reddit but my son sent this to me and I wonder why I never hear professional investors talk about such strategies. I'd really appreciate your thoughts on this.”
The strategy in question is a covered call and we used to use them.
There are two components to a covered call strategy. You buy shares of any stock that's publicly traded. The other way to invest in that same stock is called an option. An option is a very speculative way to invest because it has a finite period of time to where it exists. So if you think about casino gambling, the stock is the house is the casino and the option is the better.
You have this contract and you're giving someone the right to buy your stock at a certain price — ideally, for more than you bought it — and they pay you a premium. Not only do you get the dividend on the stock, but you're getting this premium on top of that. Sounds sexy, right? You're getting all this income on your stock, it's a no-brainer. Why wouldn't everybody do this?
Most people who buy call options, lose all their money. Of course, that is until they don't. When they don't lose money, it means the market made a gigantic move and that's the problem with the strategy when the market moves big, like it had this last year, you end up having to sell out of the market and you don't get all of the return you deserve. Listen to the episode for the full story on this strategy.
This week’s hidden facts of finance The S&P 500 averages a whopping 21.8% in a newly elected Democrats inaugural year. If the past few weeks are any indication it's playing out perfectly again this year. Believe it or not the first year in a presidential cycle under a Democratic presidency, typically has at least a 20% return. You wouldn't think that because of what the administration has been proposing, higher taxes, more estate taxes, reducing wealth, and you'd think that would be counterintuitive to investing in the stock market. It turns out it's not the case. If that's the case, we have another 10% plus to go. Again, market melt-up. It's coming. You heard it here first!
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It's episode 43 of Payne Points of Wealth and the major indices continue to March higher. Everything is focused on the fed right now. Are they going to raise interest rates? Are they going to do it next year? The year after? Is the economy getting too hot? Is it going to slow down? Are we just going to get one big burst of demand from people with their stimulus checks before everything slows down and the market crashes? Well, that's what's on investor's minds today. We're going to address all those issues. We're going to give you our playbook this week for how you have to think about the markets and the economy. On the tipping point today, we're going to talk about all the biggest concerns our clients at Payne capital management have right now when it comes to their portfolio and financial plan so that you can address the same issues in yours.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * The market is partying like it’s 1999 and the Fed is trying to take the punch bowl! [1:16] * Let’s be real… what we know [3:25] * Value stocks are where the money is right now [6:54] * The Tipping Point [11:16] * Should you be doing anything to lower your taxes? [16:40] * Hidden Facts of Finance [21:26]
Who cares if the Fed raises interest rates in two years! It doesn't matter what Jay Powell says or when they're going to raise interest rates, the market's going to determine it way before they do. And let's be real here, we have outrageously cheap money. We've got trillions of dollars that consumers are sitting on and we know consumers drive the US economy. It's all about spending money. We know wages are going up. We've got a labor shortage. We've been talking about this week after week. And at the end of the day, if you're an investor, it's all about earnings going up. And earnings continue to come in better and better. Companies are going to make a lot of money and prices are going up. What else do we need to know? It doesn't matter if the Fed's going to raise interest rates in two years. Who cares? It's not news.
This week on the tipping point: Pressing financial issues people are facing One question we are getting from clients right now is, is my portfolio in a good position for inflation? What are we going to do if inflation goes to where it was back in the 1970s? It’s an issue that should be on everybody's mind. It’s been on Bob's mind since the day he started back in 1975. Inflation is real, even though it's hidden, it's insidious, it's hideous, but it's always there. It's constant. We're hearing all about what's going to happen with this coming inflation, but what about the inflation that's already here? We run financial plans for our clients every day and we do these wealth projections. We're showing that even at 2% inflation, the cost of living is going to double every 20 years and a lot of you aren't prepared for that.
The other question we're getting is, should we be doing anything to lower our taxes? How are we going to pay for all this stimulus and government spending? You don't need to be an economist to figure out that taxes are probably going up. Someone's going to pay for these trillions of dollars worth of infrastructure projects and all of the benefits that we've been giving out over the course of the last year. So the question is, how do you prepare for higher taxes? Give unto Caesar that of which is Caesar's, but don't give him any of yours. In other words, don't pay more taxes than you have to and there's a lot of things in your portfolio that you can do to reduce the amount of taxes you're paying. Things like owning exchange-traded funds or municipal bonds, for example. Check out the episode for more!
This week’s hidden facts of finance In a recent research paper, under-performance at public retirement plans was mainly attributed to overpaying for alternative asset managers who could be replaced by cheap index funds, saving something like $70 billion a year. Here's a little hidden fact of finance... the markets are a zero-sum game so if somebody's winning, that means somebody's losing. Does it surprise you that public retirement plans are on the losing end? No shock here.
We all get offered all these alternative and brokerage products, hoping that we can gain the market. If I'm a $30 billion pension plan who has access to the best managers and they can't gain the market, what chance do you and I have? Low-cost indexes or the name of the game! I wish I could let every public retirement plan know my favorite Bob-ism and that's “Wall Street is full of ordinary people promising to give you extraordinary results.”
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It's episode 42 of Payne Points of Wealth and the Fed has come out and admitted that inflation might not be transitory. Just like we've been telling you week after week. They're looking to maybe raise interest rates sooner than expected. No kidding! However, in other news, the bond market interest rates actually went down. So what's the deal? Is inflation transitory? Is inflation here to stay? Are interest rates going higher, lower? We're going to break it down for you today on the show. On the tipping point, we're going to talk about pain points that you have when it comes to your finances. What's stopping you right now from getting on your path to financial independence. We're going to talk about the psychology of money and some of the things that you need to be dealing with when it comes to your finances to get over those mental hurdles.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Is this a breather for commodity prices and inflation or a new trend? [1:24] * Thinking about the big picture [4:23] * You heard it here first! [7:10] * The Tipping Point [10:41] * The fear of running out of money [11:14] * Anxiety about taxes [15:03] * Fearing an impending market crash [17:08] * Hidden Facts of Finance [21:14]
A breather for commodity prices and inflation or a trend? CPI, consumer price index, which is the measure of inflation was up 5% year over year in May. That's a huge number. We haven't seen inflation like that in literally decades. Prices are going up everywhere. As we were recording this oil was at $73 a barrel. Inflation's everywhere.
Meanwhile, lumber has dropped 45% since May. Copper futures are down now 12% from their record high and all of a sudden these commodity prices, which have been so strong are starting to weaken. So maybe it is transitory.
When it comes to markets, one of the dynamics that you have is that nothing goes in a straight line. Yes, commodity prices have come down but look at copper, for instance, it's still up 50% from a year ago, even though it's come down in the last couple of weeks. I mean, commodity prices are still way higher than they were. When you're thinking about your investment portfolio specifically, it's not about winning the battle. It's about winning the war. And the question is, is this just a breather for commodity prices and inflation? Or is this a new trend?
This week on the tipping point: Pain points holding you back from financial independence Everyone has a specific pain point. Something that’s holding you back when it comes to getting to that place of financial independence. So in this episode, we talk about some of those bigger pain points that we experience and how to get over them so we can ditch the anxiety when it comes to our money.
In the episode, we talk about the pains of taxes and market crashes but one of the biggest fears clients seem to have is running out of money. Especially when they are in the transitional phase of having an income to tapping into their wealth in the distribution years. Healthy fear is a good motivator but going overboard can suck the fun out of your life in the here and now. Check out the episode for tips on managing this balance!
This week’s hidden facts of finance Despite a jump in taxes during World War II, total disposable personal income in 1944 was double what it was in 1940. America's gross domestic product tripled from 1940 to 1950 in dollar terms. The economy just boomed after the war. Just because taxes are going up doesn't mean that the economy is going to suffer or your personal income is going to suffer? So don't be afraid of taxes. You have to make money for the taxman to take money!
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What's up! It's episode 41 Payne Points of Wealth. As always, a lot is going on right now. We're starting to see inflationary pressures cool off a little bit. Tech stocks on the move again. Is it time to adjust your portfolio? Is inflation really transitory? The Paynes are going to break down the three major forces that are driving everything economically right now, everything in your portfolio that you need to know about. And on the tipping point today, we're going to talk about doing research. There's a lot of good ways and bad ways you can educate yourself with all the information out there. We're going to show you how to dissect the information, pick out good information versus bad financial information. So you can make some better decisions.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Force #1: Labor shortage & irreversible wage increases [1:28] * Force #2: The weaker dollar [4:28] * Force #3: Supply chain pressure [8:00] * The Tipping Point [12:07] * Bad information from talking heads on tv [12:36] * The most dangerous thing to your personal and financial health [15:01] * A good investment strategy allows you to ignore the noise [18:38] * Hidden Facts of Finance [23:08] * A thank you from the Paynes [26:01]
Labor inflation and weak dollars Business owners are complaining about things becoming more expensive and that they can't get anybody to work. And that people that are coming to work are demanding higher pay. That's the big underpinning issue here when you talk about inflationary pressure. Lumber costs are coming down now, but they just tripled, it's not going to triple again. The longer-term stickler when it comes to inflation is labor costs. When you have to pay your employees more, you can't just say, you know what, I know I gave you a raise, but now I'm going to lower your income. It's very hard to reverse that trend.
The king dollar seems to have fallen off the throne. It's been going down now for almost 12 months. The dollar has been weak since last March when all the stimulus started. That's how it works, right? If the government keeps printing more money, it's called dilution. It's a simple concept where the more dollars you print, the less valuable they are. Last time I looked the government's looking to print another $6 trillion or so over the course of the next year. So that's very bad for the dollar.
The third leg of this stool is supply chain pressure. Check out the episode to hear more about that!
This week on the tipping point: Good and bad ways to educate yourself about finances We all want to feel informed about our options when it comes to making decisions about our finances. So we thought we could discuss some of the good and bad ways we try to educate ourselves when it comes to our finances and the best way that we can inform ourselves to make sure we're always making the best decisions. Unfortunately, most of the bad financial information that our clients talk about comes from watching tv and the internet.
A good investment strategy— like the ones we build— is built so that you can ignore all the noise. You have to build a strategy that drowns out all the current opinions because good investing is not about what's happened currently. It's what's going to transpire over the next couple of decades.
This week’s hidden facts of finance The total number of internet connections globally will increase from 0.76 billion today to 3.6 billion by 2025. Hyper-connectivity impacts other unstoppable trends, including the rise of Asia. Many millions of people in Asia will gain internet access for the first time transforming their consumer behavior. You've got one of the largest increasing populations in the world getting connected to the best shopping wall in the world. I think being an investment in emerging markets is going to help in the future here guys.
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Welcome to episode 40 of Payne Points of Wealth! Major indices aren't going anywhere fast. If you look at the Dow and the S&P we're basically in the same place now as the last two months. The NASDAQ—big tech— has been in the same place since mid-January. When you start looking under the surface cryptocurrencies are getting rocked right now. That inflationary pressure we've been talking about, we're still seeing it in commodity prices. As we're recording this oil is going through the roof! This big rotation continues to happen. We're going to talk about strategically what you need to be doing and what to be thinking about with your portfolio. On the tipping point, we're going to talk about all those shiny objects in the financial world. The financial services industry loves to sell you things that you don't need. We're going to point them out and show you how to avoid all those shiny objects at all costs.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * The greatest restructurer of all [1:50] * Two common mistakes investors are making [5:41] * Summer trends to consider [9:08] * The Tipping Point [10:35] * Cherry-picked past promising a perfect future [15:19] * Hidden Facts of Finance [20:27]
You haven’t missed the boat yet! A big trend to think about this summer is travel is definitely happening! Everyone I've talked to is going on a trip this summer. Either they're flying, going to be in their car, on their boats, everyone is moving around. Do you realize the amount of oil that's going to be used! And as we're recording this oil is at another recent high. All these trends are just going to continue to ramp up. Like they're not going to slow down. The most obvious thing happening in plain sight right now is the fact that all these cyclical stocks, these more boring companies that didn't do as well the last 10 years, are going to be up. This is going to last a long time so you've got to readjust your portfolio, you haven't missed the boat, yet.
This week on the tipping point: Shiny things to avoid Given a collection of around 75 years of experience and a high volume of portfolio reviews each month we’ve seen every strategy under the sun! So let’s talk about these offers or what we call shiny objects that a lot of financial services firms like to pitch and sell you. Because we do the analysis and we break these products down all the time we see a lot of buyer beware products. A lot of things that Wall Street is trying to sell you right now shockingly are not in your best interest. In our industry price compression is making everything is less expensive. Less expensive to trade and less expensive to invest in portfolios. That helps us as consumers and investors, but it really hurts Wall Street. They have to keep coming up with these new ideas— FYI, there are never any new ideas, just old ideas repackaged— and it comes wrapped in this shiny brochure. If you get that shiny brochure and you read all the way through it, like a textbook, and you get to the fine print at the end and there's one caviar, one thing that happens and the entire product blows up, you can bet that one thing will happen. Your shiny product will blow up and you’ll be left with nothing but ashed in your account.
This week’s hidden facts of finance Conventional thinking is usually wrong. Remember how millennials weren't going to buy homes? Well, now home sales are at their highest levels since the housing bust. Remember how today's consumers valued experiences over things? Well, spending on recreational vehicles and goods such as televisions and boats is up 14%. Remember last March at the bottom of the pandemic when everybody said the market's going to take years to recover, we should get out now because it's not going to get better for a long time. Well, guess what? That didn't happen either. Isn't it amazing when people think in groups how wrong they are? The other thing was millennials will never use financial advisors but I think the fastest-growing segment of our client base is millennials. So much for Robo-advisors!
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HELLO Americans! It's episode 39 of Payne Points of Wealth and crypto is getting crushed! There's so much going on right now. Looks like we’re going to have a bonafide labor shortage going into the end of the year. We’ll hit on that great rotation we're talking about a week after week. Tech is bleeding money. We're seeing all those work from home stocks get destroyed. But commodity prices are going up. How do you make sense of any of this?
We're going to give you our playbook today and we'll discuss exactly how we see the next couple of months playing out. On the tipping point, we're going to talk about the right questions you need to be asking to make sure you're going to be on your way to financial independence. What are those questions you should be asking versus the questions you shouldn't be asking? Well, we're going to give you our playbook for that too.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Is crypto collapsing? [1:16] * The masks are OFF! [3:01] * Normalcy on steroids! [5:05] * Shortages of labor and supplies [6:43] * The Tipping Point [10:19] * Question #1 [10:53] * Question #2 [14:06] * Question #3 [15:49] * Hidden Facts of Finance [20:21]
And the masks are off...FINALLY! As we're recording this, roughly a week ago, the CDC came out and said if you're vaccinated you don't have to wear a mask indoors or outdoors. It's crazy because Chris was in New York a week ago, it was cloudy and rainy, you know that April/May weather. Everyone's wearing a mask and people looked dour and sad. Then literally within two days the sun was shining and the CDC came out with the big announcement and it was almost like “Pandemic? What pandemic?” It was a complete 180° and it’s wonderful to see!
This week on the tipping point: Asking the right questions Often one of the biggest mistakes people make is not asking the right questions when it comes to financial planning and trying to get on that path to financial independence. We thought we'd throw out some of the questions people ask and then reposition those questions so you're asking the right question.
The most asked question is “How much money do I need to save in order to be financially independent?” A better question is “How much income will I need and how much will my savings give me?” In other words, how much income from the investments that your portfolio generates each year is going to help you sustain your lifestyle?
Then we get “Should I get long-term care or just roll the dice?” The better question would be “What are all my options for covering long-term care expenses?” You know, there's not just one answer, or solution, to this complicated question.
Another is “How can I get the highest possible return on my money?” It's not about the return on your money as much as the return of your money. So the real question is “How do I make sure my money gets returned to me?”
Things are changing. You've got to ask the right questions. Now, more than ever, if you want to be financially independent you've got to start being proactive. Start making proactive decisions about your portfolio, reverse engineer to figure out what your goals are, then go back to the drawing board and building that perfect portfolio. That's going to get you to those goals. If you want to hear our answers to these questions check out the episode!
This week’s hidden facts of finance Small businesses were hit hardest by the pandemic and are actually responsible for half of all US employment. So small businesses, like ours, employ half of Americans. Of course, this explains why we had the unemployment number go through the roof back in February-March because all of these businesses couldn't stay open. You had a pandemic, no fault of their own they lost everything. It was the saddest part of the pandemic besides losing lives of course. But here's the greatest thing about the US economy, our world works on one premise, find a need and fill it. There are going to be enormous needs and all these companies that are gone are going to be replaced by new companies. Because we are the greatest country in the world, the best in entrepreneurs and they're going to find those needs and they're going to fill them. Then unemployment's going to drop like a stone!
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Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris * http://PayneCM.com * Follow on Twitter * Follow on Facebook * Follow on LinkedIn * Subscribe on YouTube * Follow on Instagram
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What's up! It's episode 38 of Payne Points of Wealth and inflation is officially here! Not that you didn't know (and feel) that already but last week the official numbers came in and they were way higher than expected. Surprising the markets, surprising economists, but not surprising you and me. We knew the cost of everything was already going up. We know inflation is real. We know rotations going on. Companies can't hire fast enough. We've got a labor shortage. It's getting crazy out there!
On our tipping point segment today we are talking about what's going on with your retirement date, your date of financial independence. Are you planning for it? How do you plan for it? How do you get to a position where you have the freedom to do everything you want to do because you saved enough. You made that big pile of cash. You've invested it right. You grew it and now you have that date where you can live life the way you want to. We're going to tell you how. Check it out.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Competing with unemployment [2:11] * The oscillation between fear and greed [7:16] * Ending trends [8:37] * The Tipping Point [10:47] * Playing “what if” with your financial independence date [14:07] * Hidden Facts of Finance [18:15]
Are labor shortages and wage inflation what’s coming next? We all know raw material costs are going up, that's been very obvious. We've talked about it week after week and now it’s showing up in the numbers. What's interesting is that there were very weak job numbers. Everyone thought they were going to create another million jobs last month but it was only around 266,000. Way less! Part of the problem is that people are getting so much more money in their unemployment stimulus checks at home that they don't want to go back to work. This puts pressure on companies to give bonuses. Like $50 just to show up to a fast-food interview or an $800 starting bonus from a convenience store because they need people that desperately. This is likely going to lead to wage inflation. What's crazy is that right now for a company to compete with unemployment, they'd have to exceed a $32,000 a year paycheck.
This week on the tipping point: Your date for financial independence One of the biggest problems we work to solve for the 2000 or so families we advise at Payne Capital Management is the date when it will be safe to be financially independent. Which in a way is all of our dreams, right? We use money so that we can have freedom down the line. That's just a great term. Financial independence.
Sometimes people love what they do and they have worked hard to get where they are and to them, retirement just isn't’ something they ever want to do. So, why would you plan for retirement if you don’t have plans to actually retire? This is why we talk about financial independence. That point when you only work because you want to not because you have to. There is freedom in knowing that come injury, illness, or pandemic shutdown you will be ok, financially. You won’t be relying on a stimmy check to pay the bills. We help people find their way to this magic date. We advise them on how to get there. We talk about it in the episode so go check it out!
This week’s hidden facts of finance Earlier this year on this podcast, we discussed how we were moving back from the virtual world to the real world. We discussed companies like Peloton, the proverbial work from home stock, since that time has lost 53% of its value and could continue to go lower. We're wondering if we could start up a service where we get companies to pay us not to mention how overvalued their stocks are so they can save the value of the company. What do you think guys?
The US's physical infrastructure is ranked only 16th globally by the world economic forum. The proposed spending plan, which would be implemented over eight years would return government investment in the real economy to its highest level since the 1960s. That's great news because here in Philly we have potholes the size of Volkswagens! So a $3 trillion investment in our infrastructure will certainly make driving more pleasurable here in Philly.
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What's up!! It's episode 37 of Payne Points of Wealth and earning season is upon us. Companies are blowing the doors off earnings. Tech stocks have put mind-blowing numbers up there on the earnings board. Yet tech stocks are doing nada! Meanwhile, commodity prices are going up. Real estate investment trusts are going up. Value stocks are going up. There's a lot going on in the market.
How do you play it? Is tech finally dead? Should you get out or move your money around? We're going to break it down for you today. And on our Tipping Point segment, we're going to talk about consolidation. Is your money everywhere? Is it a mess? Do you have a plan? We're going to show talk about what you should be doing to organize and get on track for financial independence.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * This could be the greatest recovery in the history of the country [1:17] * Tech earnings are up but the stocks aren’t doing jack! [2:38] * Pipelines and their commodities [4:35] * Factoring in how high inflation can go [7:39] * The Tipping Point [11:21] * How consolidating to one advisor can save you big! [14:44] * Hidden Facts of Finance [19:49]
Positive surprises from boring companies When it comes to markets it's about what are the surprises in the positive? Big tech blowing up their earnings is not a surprise. We're buying more stuff online. We're advertising on Facebook. Duh! The one thing that no one's factoring in is how high inflation can go. Each week that we have an unexpected surprise and inflation goes up it positively affects the bottom line of a lot of companies we're talking about like Procter & Gamble, Caterpillar, and Bank of America. These boring old companies that no one wanted to own for the last decade.
This week on the tipping point: Consolidating your financial life. If you think your advisor's working for free, you're paying more than anybody in the industry. They hide these charges but they are there! One thing that we despise more than anything is being overcharged and if you're overcharging yourself, well... shame on you.
Here’s the thing, if you give one advisor $500k and you give another advisor $200k and yet another $300k then each of these firms is treating you like a small account. But if you consolidate it you're entitled to a discount on all the money together. Other problems with spreading it out is that you end up having overlap in your portfolio and paying high fees on all your accounts because you're a little investor at each firm.
Recently we had a client that had millions of dollars and they were being overcharged so much that we figured we could save them 2% a year in fees, that was $80k a year in fees they could drop! Can you imagine what they were losing on the returns that $80k invested over time would have profited them? It doesn’t pay to “diversify” like this!
This week’s hidden facts of finance The Census Bureau recently put out its first raw numbers and found that the U.S. population grew at its slowest rates since the great depression and that did not include the death toll from the pandemic.
According to Warren Buffet, there were about 2000 companies that entered the auto business in the 1900s because investors and entrepreneurs expected the industry to have an amazing future. Like electric vehicles today. However, in 2009 there were only three carmakers left and two went bankrupt.
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Hey, what's up! It's episode 36 of Payne Points of Wealth. We've got a special guest for you today, Kenny Polcari. He's Managing Partner at Kace Capital Advisors, Chief Market Strategist at Slatestone Wealth, and Managing Director at Campfire Capital. Most importantly, he was one of the most famous stock exchange traders going back to the ‘80s and no one gives you a better tour of the New York Stock Exchange than Kenny! We're going to talk with him about what's going on with inflation, the economy, and investing. On the tipping point, we're going to talk about bonds. Bonds are going down. Do you own bond funds? We're going to let some sunlight in and tell you exactly what you should be doing with bonds.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Is there more inflation coming than our Federal Reserve Chief is telling us? [1:40] * Housing prices & interest rates [3:41] * Ken’s thoughts on crypto [7:23] * Why would we listen to a strategist? [12:26] * The Tipping Point [15:32] * How bonds work [17:18] * The difference between an individual bond and a bond fund [18:19] * Hidden Facts of Finance [22:16]
Kenny Polcari’s thoughts on inflation Kenny and Ryan seem to agree that there's a lot more inflation coming our way than our Federal Reserve Chief is telling us.
Here are Kenny's thoughts on inflation right now "I've been saying it for a while and I've been writing about it my note and we've been talking about it on television, but you can feel it, right? If you live in this world, if you go out shopping, out to the stores, you can feel the price increases. You can see it. And so therefore I don't need the CPI or some government report telling me that there's no inflation when I go out there and I feel that there's plenty of inflation all around, right? I mean, everybody sees it. Everybody's talking about it but the government doesn't want to admit that we've got it. And so my sense is that it's building and it's building. And it's going to rear its ugly head. It's not going to be temporary and transitory the way that the fed keeps telling us it's going to be. I think we're going to see this spike in the next month or the month after. But then it's going to remain and that's going to change the whole story, the whole fed story, the CPI story, the inflation story, how hot is hot? Define hot? You and I can define it one way. The fed is going to define it a different way to fit their story, to fit their narrative. And that's going to be the part where I think the market's going to have a difficult time and investors are going to have to figure out what's the definition of hot to them. And then what's that mean to valuations?"
This week on the tipping point: Bond Funds When you own bonds outright it's simple, you know who you're lending to, you know what they're going to pay you in interest to borrow your money, and you know the set date in the future that they're going to return your money. But when Wall Street packages these bonds into a bond fund it takes away the permanence and definition and that's the big problem with owning a bond fund. Not only does the permanency and definition go away but there's also the question of quality. A prime example is back in 2015, there were a lot of municipal bond funds that were being AAA-rated, meaning they're the highest possible credit rating, that still held Puerto Rican bonds and Puerto Rico defaulted on their debt, which means that the holders of those bonds lost their money. Bonds are good, bond funds...not so much.
This week’s hidden facts of finance Exchange-traded funds took in a record $502 billion in investor cash last year. Traditional mutual funds on the other hand said goodbye to a record $289 billion. Exchange-traded funds are typically less expensive and more tax-efficient and as we say here at Payne Capital Management, any money saved in taxes and fees is just as green as money made in the market. Exchange-traded funds are new school and mutual funds are old school, you heard it here first.
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Connect with Kenny Polcari * His website * On Twitter * On Linkedin * On YouTube
Kenny Polcari Financial Services Executive | Business Commentator | Speaker | Industry Advocate
As the founder and Managing Partner at Kace Capital Advisors and a CNBC Market Analyst - I have dedicated my career to helping my clients and their families achieve their financial goals in life. As Chief Market Strategist at Slatestone Wealth I have a range of investment strategy responsibilities including U.S. market and economic analysis and client engagement. I am also a contributor to TDAmeritrade Internal Network and a keynote speaker at many industry and retail events.
A 38 year member of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) I bring over 30 years of executive management experience in institutional equities and wealth management, and twenty-five years of stewardship in industry advocacy.
I am on the board of the National Organization of Investment Professionals (NOIP), and the Headstrong Project, a nonprofit providing free treatment to 9/11 combat veterans suffering from PTS.
Regularly quoted in The Wall Street Journal, Kiplingers, MarketWatch, Thompson Reuters, TheStreet.com and others.
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris * http://PayneCM.com * Follow on Twitter * Follow on Facebook * Follow on LinkedIn * Subscribe on YouTube * Follow on Instagram
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It's episode 35 of Payne Points of Wealth and we're going to talk about everything going on around the globe. People are spending, Americans love to spend, but so does the rest of the world. We're seeing people spending money everywhere. Inflation continues to kick in just like we told you. We're looking at economic growth at the end of the year that's going to blow your mind. So how do you play it? How do you position your portfolio? You've got Coinbase going public. Crypto is going crazy and so is the world! We're going to give you some common sense advice today. On the Tipping Point, we're going to talk about procrastination. How do you procrastinate when it comes to your finances? Well, we're going to call you out on it. We're going to tell you how to get on top of those finances, get yourself financially independent, and get on the right track! Join us!
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Spending like drunken sailors with Louis Vuitton bags! [1:25] * Insane increases in real estate and lumber [4:21] * Stocks own real assets [6:19] * The Tipping Point [10:20] * Procrastinating because it’s stressful and overwhelming [13:23] * Taking the first steps [16:35] * Hidden Facts of Finance [18:44]
Equities and commodities as inflation hedges The idea is to have stocks that own real assets, right? So as the value of those underlying real assets go up in value, the stock goes up in value, business is booming. As they do more business, their earnings go up. As they make more money, they pay more dividends. That’s what a terrific hedge against inflation looks like.
Equities are the core holding as an inflation hedge, but then there are also commodities. We don't see anyone owning commodities right now, except for our clients. Also, look at real estate. Real estate is going up. You want to have real estate as a hedge in your portfolio. You don't want to have bond funds, but what I see people owning right now are long-dated bond funds—which are down 13-14% this year— and gold which is down 10%. What a horrible combination. The bottom line here is you want to own what we call productive assets.
This week on the tipping point: Overcoming procrastination The first step is just telling us the assets that you have. The reason we have a job is that most people don't want to do this by themselves. Then starting to look at what you spent. Then when you're armed with that data, the sky's the limit! Then we can play.
What if you can start looking at what-ifs. What if I retired a little bit early? What if I worked longer? What if I saved a little bit more? What impact does it have? And that's the fun part. There is a fun part to financial planning. That's the part where you get to play and dream. What if you get to dream a little bit and start looking at where you can be if you make some tweaks and adjustments to your portfolio and into your time horizons? That's the good stuff. That's the part that's fun for us too.
This week’s hidden facts of finance If you invested $1000 into the following investments on January 1st of this year, you'd have this much as of April 16th... Tesla, your thousand dollars would have turned into $1,012. GameStop, you'd have $9000. Bitcoin, your thousand would have turned into 2000. And if you'd had $1000 Dogecoin it would be worth $55,000! Man, we missed that investment. The one message you have when you have this type of return in three months is that it can go down just as fast as it went up. Most likely faster.
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Welcome to episode 34 of Payne Points of Wealth. We're going to talk about the roaring ‘20s today! There is so much going on. The economy's revving up and earnings are going to heat up as we begin earning season. Wondering what you need to do with your portfolio? Taxes are probably going up and we're going to give you strategies. On the tipping point, we're going to talk about the fine print. The financial industry always has caveats with what they're trying to sell you. We're going to give you the buyer beware and show you exactly what to look for. We've got lots of fun, fascinating facts of finance today too. It’s gonna be another great show, don’t miss it!
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * The roaring ’20s are back! [1:09] * The most dangerous words in investing [4:01] * One theme over the last year [7:04] * The Tipping Point [8:21] * The annuity [8:50] * The mutual fund [10:25] * The real estate investment trust [12:33] * Hidden Facts of Finance [16:42]
It’s different this time...? If you weren't in the industry back in the ‘70s, then you haven't seen a bear market in bonds. That has consequences for investors because all these newbie advisors haven't seen what happens. They haven't seen the devastation caused when interest rates go up in those dreaded weapons of mass financial destruction, some people call bond funds.
One thing we've been putting out week after week is that inflation just keeps creeping in and one of the gauges that we love is the producer's price index. What the heck is that? Simply put it's what it costs companies to produce goods and that's going up... a lot. Companies are going to pass those costs on to us, the consumer, which causes inflation. That's what rising prices are all about.
The four most dangerous words in investing are "it's different this time".
Well, guess what? It is different this time! The GDP is going through the roof. It's the strongest US global economic recovery in almost 50 years. It's even longer than Bob’s been in the business. This recovery is going to be the best ever. We're seeing economic growth around the globe, unlike anything anybody who's listening to this right now, has seen since they've been investing.
This week on the tipping point: Financial products aren’t bought, they’re sold When a financial product is sold it's like eating Chinese food. It tastes so good going down, but you feel so empty later. One big culprit is the annuity industry. You’ll never hear of anyone who went online and bought an annuity. It's always been sold to them and the person selling it doesn't do it for nothing. The commissions are astronomical on a lot of these products.
Then you have another group of investments called mutual funds. They're not necessarily good or bad. It all comes down to whether or not they're appropriate. What could go wrong with a mutual fund? Well, one example, is if you have a manager of that fund that's trying to outperform their underlying index a lot of times they'll take a lot more risks than they need. Then end up getting less returns because they're trying to time the market as well as charging higher fees.
Lastly, we have non-traded REITs. Every time we see a non-traded REIT and ask the investor if they went out and found this to buy it the answer is always "Oh no, the guy who sold it to me told me said it was good." REIT stands for Real Estate Investment Trust. The crazy thing about these is they're sold because people feel like they're getting a "private real estate deal". On the flip side, you can buy a portfolio of REITs in an exchange-traded fund, which is 100% liquid meaning you can buy and sell it all day long. We’ve found that it's usually better than these private REITs where you can never get out of them.
This week’s hidden facts of finance Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway bought Coca-Cola stock in the late ’80s and the early ’90s. Today, those shares are projected to generate $672 million a year in annual dividend income. That is a 51% annual yield based on the original $1.3 billion it cost to buy the stock. On top of it all, today the stock is worth $21 billion in their portfolio. Goes to show that time passes and markets operate! Who wouldn't want a 51% yield? But to get it you have to be patient, be an investor, and own great companies that don't just pay a dividend, but also increase that dividend every year like Coke has for the last 60 years.
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What's up! It's episode 33 of Payne Points of Wealth and the economy right now is hot. Make no mistake, we've talked about it week after week and it's happening. Unemployment is coming down way faster than expected. Consumers are buying more goods than expected and supply chains are on fire!
Today we're going to talk about exactly what you need to be doing in your portfolio, what you need to anticipate, and what this means for the global economy? On our Tipping Point segment, we're going to talk about conflicts of interest. Believe it or not Wall Street is not working for you. We're going to dig into all the dirty little secrets on Wall Street and the financial services industry that you need to be aware of so that you can make better decisions with your finances.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Everything is higher than expected! [1:18] * The Market is a slave to earnings [3:59] * A hot tip on Bitcoin [6:11] * The Tipping Point [8:41] * The cost of protection [10:48] * Structured products are only beneficial for the entity that’s doing the structuring [14:18] * Hidden Facts of Finance [18:12]
Wall Street strategist’s estimates are driving record highs in the market The market is a slave to companies’ earnings and companies are going to make a lot of money over the next two years. As a result, you're seeing strategists on Wall Street increasing their estimates of how high those profits or earnings are going to be. Every time they do that it ratchets up the price in the market so we're seeing new highs every week. The S&P 500 reached over $4,000 for the first time in history and we're closing in on $34,000 on the Dow.
It seems that right now the bet is not on the future of profits for these big disruptive tech companies like Spotify, Zoom, or Tesla. It's more on the companies that are profitable now, those old-school stocks like banks and oil. That's been the theme here on our show week after week. It's about profits. All about profits! When you start thinking about your portfolio and you think about being strategic you have to think about what has the most benefits and what the losers are. The losers are going to be all these companies that have no profits.
This week on the tipping point: Conflicts of interest The financial services world is riddled with conflicts of interest. We worked for one of the largest firms on Wall Street and spent a good amount of time just protecting our clients from the firm. It’s one of the reasons we started our firm Payne Points of Wealth. Check out the episode today where we will discuss some of the situations where the financial services industry might not be working in your best interest.
The first red flag about the financial services industry is that our government has been trying to protect the consumer for a good 20 years now bypassing what they call the fiduciary rule. That's where the advisor or investment firm has to put YOU, the consumer, the investor, the client’s interest first. But guess what guys? They've been fighting it tooth and nail, they don't want to put your interests first. They want to make as much money as they can.
This week’s hidden facts of finance The real net public infrastructure investment has been cut by more than half since the early 2000s. The new proposed $2.3 trillion infrastructure plan is equal to all of the revenue generated by Apple over the past 18 years combined, including that from every iPhone, iPad, and iPod ever sold! That's a lot of stimulus into the economy. Just think if the federal government had gotten into the smartphone and tablet business 18 years ago we probably wouldn't have anything to worry about, but the problem is taxes will probably go up in the future because we have to pay for this infrastructure somehow. Eventually, taxes are coming, but also the economic boom. So you get two sides of the coin there.
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It's episode 32 of Payne Points of Wealth, we’ve got the news in plain sight, you've seen the headlines, and we give you the real story. The real story is mean reversion! Investors are learning a "Payneful" lesson, a trend we identified on this show months ago, and that is technology stocks are starting to sell-off. You might be wondering what’s a mean reversion? How does it work? We're going to break it down for you and explain why it's so important to understand as you're building your investment portfolio.
On the tipping point, we're going to pinpoint the Payne points having the biggest impact on your wealth right now. Which are rules of thumb when it comes to financial planning. What rules of thumbs should you be using? Which ones should you disregard? We're going to tell you what kind of customized planning you should be doing right now, what you should be applying to your financial plan, and we've got lots of fascinating facts of finance.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * No new eras in investing [1:24] * Long term investors vs bubble makers [3:51] * Two hard questions to ask yourself as an investor [5:31] * The Tipping Point [9:12] * The rule of 100 [9:39] * The rule of 75% [10:36] * 6 months savings rule [11:54] * The rule of 5 [13:36] * The 4% rule [15:45] * The Payne Capital A to B rule [16:53] * Hidden Facts of Finance [18:32]
Two hard questions to ask yourself as an investor First. Are we too optimistic about some markets’ potential or an “addressable market”? Is mom going to go Venmo grandma or maybe pay with Crypto or is she still going to write a check out of her Bank of America account? Is Tesla going to be the only electric vehicle option in town? Are we being naive?
Second. Is this newfound optimism already priced in? Look at a company like DocuSign, a super hot stock right now, it trades for 153 years worth of profits. So maybe that addressable market is already priced in the stock for decades to come. We don't know, but these are big possibilities. And we don't think investors are asking themselves those hard questions.
This week on the tipping point: Rules of Thumb In this episode, we talk about some financial “Rules of Thumb” you’ve probably heard in your lifetime. The rule of 100. The rule of 75%. The 6 months savings rule. The rule of 5. The 4% rule. In the episode we chime in on each of these, so you should definitely go listen, and these are all pretty good rules, but when it comes to investing... rules are made to be broken.
The only rule you need to follow is the rule of A to B, and that's getting your family from your point A— where you are right now financially— to your goals...your dreams...to your point B! That's the Bob Payne rule. That's the Payne Capital Management rule. And that rule will help you to rule your life financially, forever.
This week’s hidden facts of finance 40% of companies successful enough to become publicly traded lost effectively all of their value over time. The Forbes 400 list of the richest people in America has roughly a 20% turnover per decade for causes other than death or transferring money to another family member. It just goes to prove that the numbers show it, that investing in individual stocks is not investing, it's speculation. Investing in the market and a diversified portfolio is the only way to go.
How lucky do you feel? Lucky enough to pick a company that not only stays in business but outperforms the index, or will you end up with a bunch of companies that go under? I don't know about you, but I don't speculate. I invest. Capitalism's messy. Anything that's incumbent today, whether it's Amazon, Facebook, or Google, is only a couple of steps away from creative destruction from some other force of the universe. So it's a great reminder that you can't stay complacent as an investor.
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It's episode 31 of Payne Points of Wealth and the great reopening is upon us! If you think it's not, all you have to do is look at Miami right now. It's spring break. There are no rules! Everything's open and people are going crazy. You can almost imagine what the rest of the world is going to look like as we slowly recover and reopen throughout the rest of the year. Again, what the three of us have been talking about week after week is that the economy's going to boom. It's going to be red hot! It's coming.
We're going to address that on the show today. We’ll also touch on what's going on with the market and how to invest your money. We’ll bestow upon you some of our thoughts and wisdom about the markets, investing, and financial planning so that you can apply it on your own.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Party in the city where the heat is on...Welcome to Miami [1:21] * What does it mean when company executives sell their own stock? [5:54] * Value stocks are the new growth stocks [9:20] * The Tipping Point [11:45] * Mortgages - pay it off or invest instead? [12:20] * Individual bonds -vs- bond funds [13:53] * Are annuities a rip-off? [17:36] * Hidden Facts of Finance [21:19]
Value stocks are the new growth stocks When you have inflation, when interest rates are going up, small does better than big, value does better than growth, and international does better than the US. Unfortunately, the majority of the portfolios we're reviewing— and we’re reviewing about 50 non-Payne Capital Management clients a month— are all positioned for last year. They're not built for what's happening right now.
The irony is growth stocks are not where the growth is going to be. Because these old-school value companies that we talk about are where the opportunity is. An example of this is a company called Bloomin' Brands, which owns a lot of restaurant chains. Just a good old-fashioned business of restaurant chains. And Americans love to go out to eat! We know that their earnings are going to go up 80% over the next year. This isn't a technology company. They're cutting costs dramatically and when you cut a lot of expenses and all of a sudden your demand comes back, profits just go crazy. That's what the market's going to start seeking out, new growth that’s operating leverage. It's not new technology and innovation, that's already happened.
This week on the tipping point: Our 2¢ Should you always pay off the mortgage as soon as you can?
It may depend on which generation you ask. With home interest rates under 4% and portfolios average 5% or better, it makes more sense to pay the note and invest any additional cash you’re thinking of dropping on additional principal payments. However, to some of you, peace of mind is more valuable.
Are individual bonds better than bond funds?
We hate bond funds so the simple answer here is YES!! Listen to the segment to hear why.
Are annuities a rip-off?
An annuity is a financial product and most of the time it is loaded with heavy fees. You're basically putting yourself in a position to NOT win because every year you have all these institutions taking money and chipping away at your investment. Sometimes they can be appropriate but proceed with extreme caution and know what the fees are.
This week’s hidden facts of finance The S&P 500 index has risen by an average of 36% during the nine periods since 1980 when 10-year yields have also moved higher. Kind of like today. Stock prices and bond yields tend to move in tandem because higher yields tend to be a sign of a growing economy. We're predicting a 6.5% GDP yield by the end of the year, that's probably happening right now. Higher yields and inflation are actually good for stocks. You don't want to sit in cash.
Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris * http://PayneCM.com * Follow on Twitter * Follow on Facebook * Follow on LinkedIn * Subscribe on YouTube * Follow on Instagram
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What's up! It's episode 30 of Payne Points of Wealth! The economy is opening up at warp speed. We literally have had a hundred million COVID-19 vaccine doses administered as of the recording of this podcast. The economic data is looking better and better. We're seeing a huge rotation in the stock market— that we identified for you months ago.
The world is changing. The world is shifting. The world is opening up. We're going to talk about how you need to play that in your portfolio and what you need to be thinking about with regards to the economy. We're also going to cover what risks you may have in your portfolio and what risks you don't see that you have in your portfolio. We're also going to point out all the different risks that you need to avoid as the economy reopens and the world becomes a better place.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * What’s wrong with the economy [1:55] * The Wall Street consensus [4:03] * Inflation hedges [8:01] * The Tipping Point [9:45] * Are risk tolerance tests a good way to dictate risk in your portfolio? [11:33] * More risk, more reward? [14:39] * Hidden Facts of Finance [19:53]
Is the uptick in inflation temporary? There's this big belief on Wall Street that maybe this is just a short-term blip on the radar. Maybe, inflation’s not going to kick in. Maybe, interest rates aren't going to go higher. If that's the case, maybe you want to continue to own those tech stocks and bond funds.
But if the economy is going to run hot the second half of the year because the entire world's going to reopen— and they are sprinkling all of this money on the economy that we're going to spend— odds are we're going to see a lot of inflation going into the end of the year. Which speaks to owning old-school stocks and stocks that pay dividends. You know... stocks that benefit the most from the reopening of the economy.
This week on the tipping point: Risk We get great insight into the psychology of investing and financial planning— given the 2000 families that we help manage their finances— and we think one of the most important components is risk. How do you view risk? What about risk in your portfolio or when it comes to reaching your goals? Unfortunately, most risk is only seen in hindsight.
We want to talk about some of the questions that you need to be asking yourself when it comes to risk in your portfolio to make sure that you're on your path to financial independence. Believe it or not, of every portfolio ever reviewed or even looked at, 90% of the investors were taking way more risk than necessary to achieve their stated goals.
This week’s hidden facts of finance As auto executives and investors buzz about the coming age of the electric car, many car dealers say they're struggling to square that enthusiasm with the actual reality. Last year battery-powered vehicles made up fewer than 2% of all US auto sales. When we watch the nightly news and they tell us that by 2035 everyone will be driving electric cars. Well, only 2% were sold this year. And I'll tell you who gets it is the Tesla executives. Because as people keep buying Tesla stock, the Tesla executives have been selling stock to the public while they think this is going to be the most amazing event in the next couple of years, why they selling their stock? It's a very good point. If I'm holding Tesla stock right now, I'd be concerned that the management's selling.
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It's episode 29 of Payne Points of Wealth — tech is starting to dive and old-school stocks are starting to win. In the last week, we've seen the NASDAQ have a 10% correction while the Dow Jones Industrial Average— the old school index— hit an all-time record high. The economy’s reopening, old school -vs- new school, is this trend going to continue? We are also going to talk about what catalysts in your financial life are going to get you going to make sure that you're getting all your ducks in a row when it comes to all the financial things. It’s a great episode so go check it out!
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Come take a ride in Bob’s way back machine [2:51] * Seeing risk in hindsight [6:19] * The real opportunity is EVERYWHERE ELSE [8:44] * The Tipping Point [10:21] * The North Star of financial planning [12:45] * Financial stress test [14:29] * Hidden Facts of Finance [18:12]
Valuations don't matter... until they do! Amazon, Google, Apple they're all just making money hand over fist. They're the stocks of the future. Or are they the stocks of last year? Either way, we're still going to order things off of Amazon. We're still going to be buying our Apple phones, our Apple watches, and our Apple brains. So how can these massive, big tech companies that are the crème de la crème in the US all of a sudden not be hot anymore? It makes no sense. Or does it?
But valuations don't matter until they do.
You're investing in great companies, but is it also a great stock?
This week on the tipping point: URGENCY in financial planning Most of us, if we're honest with ourselves, find it very easy to procrastinate when it comes to our financial planning issues. We at Payne Capital Management know this better than anybody! Dealing with people and their finances is a very tricky thing. So in this episode, we will discuss some scenarios that might light a fire under your sense of urgency.
A lot of people think, “my goal is to make as much money as I can” but making money is NOT a goal. Why do you need to make money? What's the purpose of money? Understand what you're trying to accomplish and have your end game in mind. Do you want to have a lifetime of income that you cannot outlive? Do you want to have a big ol’ pile of go-to-hell money so that you don't have to work for the rest of your life? Are you taking more risks than necessary to achieve those goals? Are you taking enough? Check out the episode and we will help answer some of these questions!
This week’s hidden facts of finance Despite the pandemic, the total number of billionaires around the world rose by 412 to a record of 3,228 billionaires. Overall, China added 259 billionaires to this list, more than the rest of the world combined. The richest 100,000 American families hold about 16 trillion. That's trillion with a ‘T’ in net assets. Rather than be jealous of these billionaires just celebrate your own success. The US household wealth is at an all-time record high! That means every one of you right now is worth more than you have ever been worth in your life.
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It's episode 27 pain points of wealth. And the economy is about to run hot and tech is not. Technology shares have been wavering here as the market goes up and up and up every single week inflation's kicking in. Interest rates are going up. Oil prices are going up. Lots going on in the market. We're going to break it down for you today. We're going to talk about what we see in the future when it comes to the economy, the stock market, and how to invest your money. And we're going to talk about the financial services industry. Yes. There are lots of charlatans in our industry. I'm sure you're shocked. We're going to break down some of the warning signs or things to watch out for when you're getting advice from the financial services industry so you can make the best decisions about your money.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * A voracious rally resulting in quickly recovering economy [1:12] * Do you feel wealthy? [3:50] * The biggest mistakes we are seeing right now [6:26] * The Tipping Point [10:50] * Financial advisors or glorified product salespeople? [11:41] * What is a true fiduciary? [15:02] * Hidden Facts of Finance [19:42]
Overconcentration in large-cap US stocks One of the biggest mistakes that we see right now— and we look at probably 50 portfolios every month, we literally see every strategy out there— is an overconcentration in large-cap US stocks. Apple is a great company, Amazon's a great company, Facebook's a great company but they just had their day in the sun and last year they made so much money it's going to be hard to beat that moving forward. What you have to realize with your portfolio is that the market cares about whose earnings or whose profits are growing the fastest. And those stocks are probably not going to grow as fast anymore because it's the law of big numbers. They've already grown so much that you've got to start looking at where the profits are going to grow the fastest. And that's going to be in a lot of old-school stocks versus new school stocks.
This week on the tipping point: Looking for red flags from advisors You would think that if someone was dishonest or they pulled the wool over somebody's eyes in the past, our industry would be smart enough to kick them out, but they don't. If you're wondering about your advisor, all you have to do is go to the FINRA site and look at the broker check. Something you should always look at when looking to work with a financial advisor is what their history looks like?
When it comes to financial planning and financial health and assessing that, it shouldn't be product-based, it should be what we call goal-based. The problem is a lot of our industry is still just looking to sell you something that you put in your portfolio. We talk about this a lot. You end up with what we call collection of investments. In this episode, we cover a lot of things to look for to know if you have someone looking out for your best interest as your fiduciary. Be sure to check it out.
This week’s hidden facts of finance Clean power sources, such as wind and solar are projected to provide 39% of the US utility industries generating capacity versus 13% today. On the other hand, coal is forecasted to account for just 3% versus 19% of all energy generated from utilities. Well, who says you can't be both green and profitable. So utility traditional utilities are cheap right now, but they're also investing in things like green energy, thinking about the future. So if you can get them cheap, you can also be green. That's going to lead to better profit margins. I like the idea that you can buy old-school utilities here, and it's actually an alternative energy play as opposed to buying some of these alternative energy stocks, which have already been shot to the moon.
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It's episode 27 of Payne Points of Wealth and inflation has arrived. Don't say we didn't warn you. We've talked about inflation and now it's here. Commodity prices are going through the roof as energy prices are up over 20%, lumber prices are up over 50%, and corn is up over 30%. The cost of living is going up. How do you position your portfolio? We're going to show you exactly how to invest your money. We’re also digging into what you should think about when you're 30, 40, 50, 60, when it comes to your financial plan? We're going to tell you exactly what you need to be thinking about at each stage of your journey.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * What is inflation? [3:42] * Weapons of mass financial destruction [5:31] * Old school over new school [7:36] * The Tipping Point [10:26] * Funding in your 30’s [10:46] * Budgeting in your 40’s [13:20] * Closing in on financial independence in your 50’s [15:12] * Building a retirement income plan in your 60’s [16:42] * Scary RMD’s in your 70’s [17:37] * Hidden Facts of Finance [20:24]
Do you have a portfolio that can deal with inflation? The simplest economic term for inflation is having too many dollars chasing too few goods. One of the big problems right now is the government has created so much money— in fact, the money supplies have increased by 26%— that's the most since 1943. What that means is there's a lot of money out there and all those dollars are going to be chasing a finite amount of goods. When you talk about things like oil, gold, or copper, they're all finite. It increases the prices because the supply and demand get out of whack. Right now there's just too much money out there and that's the inherent problem, that's what causes inflation.
Just a year ago even a couple of months ago, no one expected inflation to go up at all. Now you can see it right across the board. The best indication you have is interest rates going up. Now, how does that impact you and your portfolio? Check out the show to find out!
This week on the tipping point: Ages & stages of financial planning The first 30 years of life seem to tick by slowly and the next 30 are gone in the blink of an eye. As we like to say at our firm— Payne Capital Management— financial planning is a journey, not a destination. Depending on where you are in that journey, there are different issues you have to address at different ages. What should you do if you didn’t do anything in your 30’s or even 40’s? Just start now, get in where you fit in.
Listen to the episode as we discuss some of the steps you should focus on at each age. Funding in your 30’s. Budgeting in your 40’s. Closing in on financial independence in your 50’s. Building a retirement income plan in your 60’s. And dealing with scary RMD’s in your 70’s.
This week’s hidden facts of finance Walmart is still the world's largest retailer when measured by revenue, not Amazon. With 2021 fiscal sales of 559 billion or larger than all the 21 country's gross domestic products.
The 90-year-old empire state building said in its fourth-quarter financial results, that the number of visitors to its Observateur declined by 94% in the fourth quarter of 2020 to 55,000 from 894,000 people visiting just a year earlier. It sounds like New York's become a ghost town.
During 16 post-war periods in which interest rates went up, the S&P 500 was up in 13 of those windows with an annual rate of return of 13%. In other words, rising rates and rising stocks go hand in hand more often than not. Stocks are actually an inflation hedge.
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It's episode 26 of Payne Points of Wealth and money is pouring into the stock market. Two weeks ago, we had over $58 billion go into exchange traded funds, mutual funds, and money jammed into energy as the animal spirits are alive and well. How do you play it? What do you do next? Greed is definitely seeping into the market, what are you doing with your portfolio right now that also speaks to greed. Are you being greedy? Are you being disciplined with your investment strategy? We're going to address all that on this episode so be sure to listen up!
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * The great irony of the stock market [1:17] * Focusing on the big picture, not the hiccups [3:30] * The market does its best to compound the majority [5:38] * The Tipping Point [9:36] * How FOMO is driving greed [11:54] * The market always catches you off guard [14:36] * Hidden Facts of Finance [17:10]
Investing where it’s hot and where it’s profitable are rarely in alignment There's so much opportunity in the market right now and a lot of you are just looking at the wrong thing. Isn't that the way it always is though, it's like whatever we anticipate the most and wherever the money's flowing the most at the same time tends to be where we get the least amount of return over time. It's the great irony of the stock market.
Warren Buffet is selling even more of this Apple stock, not buying into the hot tech trade. He's buying really exciting stocks like Chevron and Verizon, which are not only inexpensive right now, but also pay great dividends. Maybe he's lost his touch because obviously, all your money should be in electric vehicles, Bitcoin, SPACs, and anything growth-related.
This week on the tipping point: Giving in to greed We have an old saying in our business that markets oscillate between fear and greed. With the stock market going up literally every day now you can kind of feel greed starting to seep in. As we know from managing money now for a collective 70 plus years, when it comes to your money, giving in to that desire of greed can end very badly. Gordon Gekko’s famous speech said greed is good but he lost everything and ended up going to jail, so maybe greed isn’t that good after all. Check out the episode where we talk about how greed can be very detrimental to your financial health specifically right now!
This week’s hidden facts of finance Colorado topped $2 billion in marijuana sales through state dispensaries last year, putting it on par with Canada. They raised $387 million in taxes and fees. Virginia legalization appears imminent, which will bring the number of recreational pot States up to 16 but with those kinds of tax dollars, I think it's going to 50.
The first electric age effectively ended in 1915 after Henry Ford and Thomas Edison teamed up to take a crack at electric vehicles. The stately battery-powered sedans of the pre-World War One era appealed mostly to well-to-do urbanites. President Woodrow Wilson drove around the White House grounds and his Milburn Electric. Apparently, these vehicles were too slow, too heavy, and too costly. Check out the show for more hidden facts of finance!
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The government has announced another stimulus plan and another $1.9 trillion. Keep in mind last year we had $2.2 trillion bestowed upon the economy, along with another $900 billion at the end of the year. It's almost like pouring rocket fuel on rocket fuel. What this means is the second half of the year is going to be a huge economic boom.
We're going to talk about what that means for you, how to position your portfolio. If you're getting into that financial red zone, maybe you're five years out from retirement or you're five years into retirement there are things you need to be doing proactively with your financial plan to make sure you're on track. We're going to give you our playbook to make sure you're making all the best decisions when it comes to your finances in episode 25 of Payne Points of Wealth, so don’t miss it!
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Why is everything going up? [1:22] * The misconception [3:26] * The hidden rotation of profits [6:26] * Positioning for tomorrow today [9:10] * The Tipping Point [11:40] * From wealth accumulation to wealth distribution [13:57] * Having interest and dividends so you aren’t dependant on market growth [17:22] * Hidden Facts of Finance [20:34]
Be where the action’s going not where it is The day is coming when we can go out and actually live life again. We talk about this in almost every episode, but I don't think people realize the magnitude of just how great those animal spirits are going to be six months from now. You've got to position your portfolio for that today. As in right now. We'd rather own hotel stock than the hottest biotech stock because in reality, that's where the action's going to be. As an investor, you always want to be investing where the action's going to be not where it is right now.
The proof is in the pudding. Earnings are coming out showing Amazon and Apple both had over $125 billion revenue quarters. Record quarters! Nothing like that has ever been seen in the history of the country… but their stock is barely moving. That’s because the time to buy that stock was a year or two years ago when the economy was shutting down and there was nowhere else to go for growth.
This week on the tipping point: The financial RED ZONE We talk with our clients all the time about being in the financial red zone. That's roughly the 10 years before retirement and those first 5-10 years in retirement. We’ve found there’s a lot of adjustments you have to make to your financial life to make sure you're going to be secure throughout retirement.
The most important thing to figure out in that red zone is what you spend. A lot of you out there have no clue how much money you're actually spending. If you're not putting in good spending numbers, that's going to throw off your entire projection. It's in that first five years of retirement where you find out if you calculated that budget correctly.
If you think you’ll spend less in retirement, think again. The reality is you're probably going to spend more in the first five years of retirement because your spending habits don't change that much but the time you have to spend it increases. You should always plan for more, not less. We're Americans. We love to spend money. Let's not kid ourselves!
This week’s hidden facts of finance Only 55% of global market capitalization is composed of US stocks. Yet, US investors tend to put 75% of their stock holdings in US stocks. This statistic completely blows us away considering how many of the products we use on a day-to-day basis are made overseas. Emerging markets and international markets are relatively cheap right now, combined with the fact that we have a weakening dollar, we'd say the opportunity is overseas. It's kind of like being anti-China, but having an iPhone.
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What's up! It’s episode 23 of Payne Points of Wealth and Wall Street's gone bananas in a crazy twist. We've got hedge fund managers being taken out by Reddit traders in chat rooms! It goes back to one of our old sayings here at Payne Capital Management “Wall Street’s made up of ordinary people trying to do extraordinary things.” We're going to break this craziness down for you and talk about exactly what happened with the Game Stop trade, what to make of it, and what to do with your portfolio in light of all the market speculation. As an added bonus we're going to talk about Bob's renovation. We know you care about it, his house in Florida, but wait until you hear how that relates to your financial plan. Let's hop to it!
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * This Game Stop thing… Reddit vs The Hedge Fund [1:13] * Scarcity of capital overabundance of capital [5:02] * Buy the stock not the story [7:22] * The Tipping Point [11:13] * Diversified opinions do not equal a diversified portfolio [12:09] * Is your investment strategy in line with your goals? [18:10] * Hidden Facts of Finance [23:05]
Are you buying the stock or the story? You're hearing about innovation. Innovation is going to change the world. It's already happening, but you're paying up for those earnings. It's what happened in ‘99 and ‘00 when you had these companies selling exorbitant PE ratios. They were selling at ridiculous valuations, like Cisco at 200 times its earnings. The story was right, everything that the tech companies promised in ‘99 came true, but not for 10 or 15 years. Meanwhile, the stocks didn't do anything but go down.
Tesla has this huge opportunity and it's probably 100% correct that we're all going to be driving electric vehicles, eventually. They're probably going to corner the market in batteries and they'll have all these other great services that complement their core business. But the point is, it's all being priced in today.
This week on the tipping point: Renovating your financial plans Doing any type of renovation is expensive and you've got to be careful that you get the best discounts you can while still getting quality work. If you hire 10 contractors to do 10 different jobs, then you're paying 10 different people a retail price. It’s wiser to get one contractor who gives you a wholesale price on all 10 jobs and you save on the overall cost and only have to deal with one person. Saves you time. Saves you money. It's no different when it comes to working with one financial advisor rather than working with several different advisors.
You have your assets spread around because you think you don't want to have all of your eggs in one basket. However, you’re paying fees to everyone. You are a small client with 10 different advisors so you're not getting the overall discount that you would as a larger client with one advisor. Not only that but each of those advisors is bound to have some overlap so while you're not’ putting all of your eggs in one basket you are putting the same eggs in several baskets.
This week’s hidden facts of finance Apple reported a record $111 billion in revenue this past quarter! Up 21% from a year ago. Apple now generates $50 million in sales EVERY. SINGLE. HOUR. Bob met Steve Jobs way back in the ’80s after he had just been fired by Apple and he was working for NeXT. Just goes to show you how smart these management teams are. They got rid of the guy who was responsible for creating the first trillion-dollar capitalization company. So $111 billion in one quarter is a record quarter, it’s the first time anybody's done a hundred billion dollars in one quarter. EVER. Check out the episode for more hidden facts of finance!
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It's episode 23 of Payne Points of Wealth and there are mounds of money creating mounds of speculation in the stock market. As we speak, there's literally $4.3 trillion sitting in cash because the government prints so much money. Not surprisingly, a lot of that money is finding its way into the stock market and creating rampant speculation. So the question is, are we in a bubble? How do you invest your money today to get a good return over the next five to 10 years? We're going to address that.
With the pandemic starting last year did you push your financial planning to the sidelines? Fair enough. Well, it’s a new year and hopefully, you've got a new perspective on life. So we're going to talk about how to get your financial life in order and get it in gear in 2021! It's going to be another great episode. Check it out!
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Why we think bubbles are forming [1:16] * Is rampant stock speculation leading to a burst? [2:43] * Why it’s important to have an IPS [6:32] * The Tipping Point [9:12] * Tax legislation that may have been overlooked [10:56] * Have you scheduled your annual financial physical? [14:47] * Hidden Facts of Finance [18:09]
Risk is something recognized in hindsight, but there are signs along the way There is all this money finding its way into the market. The scariest thing about it is that it’s not going into the places we are advising, like a diversified risk-adjusted portfolio. It’s going into things like Bitcoin, SPACs, and new IPO companies with no earnings. The “sexy” stocks. These are people looking for a quick buck, not long-term investors. Stock speculation is all around us and you just don’t know when the bubble is going to burst.
A half-trillion dollars worth of options on individual stocks traded last week alone! The highest single-day level in the history of the options market, that goes all the way back to the early ’70s. We also had the lowest amount of bearish bets, or puts, being bought in the history of the stock market. So you have the lowest level in years on people being bearish and the highest level in years of people being bullish. Conventional wisdom tells you to be bullish because everybody else is, but you may find that there is very little wisdom in conventional wisdom. Listen to the episode for more on the signs to look for!
This week on the tipping point: Overlooked tax legislation There were a lot of rules and regulations that changed last year with the SECURE Act that we might've forgotten about once the pandemic hit. All this fantastic new tax legislation that you could use with your portfolio where all of us got a break on our required minimum distribution from retirement plans. They waived it for everybody. They also moved the required age up from 70 to 72. That's two more years of compounding and two more years of not having to take 20% of your distribution and give it to the IRS. That one piece of legislation is going to help everybody secure their retirement! There’s more to this week’s Tipping Point so be sure to listen!
This week’s hidden facts of finance Japan was one of the biggest stock markets in the world for a time in the late eighties, making up 45% of the global market capitalization. Japan only makes up 8% of that total now. It was a wild ride back in those late ’80s.
During the Trump presidency, the S&P 500 annualized 13.9% a year, which is only slightly higher than when Obama was president at 13.1% a year. So the market was almost identical under both of their tenures. Just goes to show that businesses don’t care who is in office, they are just in it to make money!
Nearly 87.5 of US GDP is generated by the private sector outside the government's direct reach. Further demand for US stocks and goods US firms produce is fully global. Almost 40% of US firm's revenue stems from outside the US. Mitigating American political influence. In a global economy, Capitol Hill doesn’t have as much influence as you’d think.
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Welcome to episode 22 of Payne Points of Wealth. As always, there's a lot going on and we’ve got a lot to say. Here we are nearly a year into a pandemic. There’s a vaccine but distribution is not off to a smooth start. We're looking at another stimulus bill for $1.9 trillion after passing one for $900 billion a month ago! Companies and consumers are sitting on more cash than ever. How do you play this trend? Should you diversify your money? Are we in a stock market bubble? Should you go to cash? We're going to address all those issues on today's Payne Points of Wealth. Don’t miss out!
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Are we about to have a repeat of the roaring 20’s [2:28] * New levels of productivity and efficiency that we think are here to stay [4:29] * Baggin on bitcoin [6:58] * The Tipping Point [9:38] * You can’t double dribble when it comes to Social Security [13:11] * Hidden Facts of Finance [18:03]
A productivity wave that’s probably here to stay People like Chris and others in our company are finding that by not commuting and simply working home everybody's saving large amounts of time. That translates to more hours that they are able to put into their work. Better for them, better for the company. Chris says “I'm able to reach out to more people. I’m only seeing clients virtually and because of that, I'm able to connect with way more clients and more frequently. I'm saving a lot of time and even have more free time for myself.”
Look at Zoom, they went from 10 million users to 300 million users in less than a year. It was like the entire population of the US joined up! Think of all those meetings you used to have to attend in person that you may never have to do in person again. These productivity gains are probably here to stay coupled with the fact that companies have been cutting costs, now you've got liquidity along with efficiency. It’s a huge wave that's going to drive this economy for the next couple of years.
This week on the tipping point: Life’s shot clock is always ticking on retirement You have a limited amount of time on this earth. Nobody escapes alive. It's not just about financial planning, it's about depending on and having a solid financial strategy. You have to have a strategy to be able to take advantage of the financial markets. Maybe another year's gone by and you were reluctant to finally sit down and put together a game plan. You put off figuring out what you spend on an annual basis, how much you should save, and didn’t start looking at how your money is or should be invested?
We all kind of gave ourselves a pass last year because it was a train wreck of a year full of uncertainty, but meanwhile, the economy is recovering. The market had a fantastic year and now you're another year behind. The window gets smaller and smaller every time you delay. Not only are you missing all this opportunity, but you're getting further behind by not putting a game plan in place. Every single day, the clock is ticking on that. It’s not too late to start now, and it’s always better than starting later! Go get to work!
This week’s hidden facts of finance An estimated 2.4 million new homes are needed every single year, while only 1.6 million are being constructed. It sounds like the housing boom is going to continue. You have the urbanization of America going on and a lot of people are moving out of the cities. They are getting away from the pandemic, getting away from high priced apartments, and buying in the suburbs. Couple that with record-low interest rates— the lowest mortgage rates we've ever seen so if you haven't refinanced, you should— and we think the housing boom will continue and it's going to be a big driver of the economy this year.
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Welcome to episode 21 of Payne Points of Wealth! We are having a phenomenal start to 2021. Markets are going through the roof, interest rates and oil prices are going up. The “cyclical stocks”— those reopening stocks that we told you about— are starting to move. So the question is... how do you position your portfolio in 2021 to win? We're going to address that. We are also going to talk about some of the big questions that you probably don't have the answers to when it comes to your financial plan and things you need to address to make sure you're on solid footing in the year to come.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Tesla: Sell or hold on? [1:38] * Are you lucky or are you good? [3:20] * What’s time tested, affordable, & pays well? [6:37] * The Tipping Point [8:30] * F.E.A.R. [9:44] * You can’t ignore taxes [14:04] * Hidden Facts of Finance [17:24]
A fool and his money were lucky to get together in the first place Investing is counter-intuitive. You want to own more of what's going up right now. That's what your brain screams. But the real way to create wealth is to put your dividends, interest, and savings into other asset classes when they are out of favor. For example, small company stock returns come in big at 6% for the first two weeks of 21’. Whoever had the most shares made the most money.
However, when you hit a home run, like with Tesla. How was it that you decided on that investment? What's the next one based on your strategy. You have to ask yourself when hitting a homer in your portfolio, are you lucky or are you smart? The good news is you don’t have to be lucky or smart. You just have to be in! The better news is you can choose to be smart with the winnings and you’ll learn more about that when you check out the episode!
This week on the tipping point: Issues to address to build a solid financial plan The acronym for fear— false evidence appearing real— applies here. When the market pulls back, we have this irrational fear that the market is going to drop to zero, so we make irrational decisions. We take our unrealized losses and we make them real rather than focusing on why we're investing in the first place. Which is, of course, our financial goals for the future, whether that's retirement or something else. The reality is if you own an all-weather portfolio, you can weather these crashes pretty well and ignore the noise.
We waste so much time worrying about a market crash. Over the last decade we’ve had clients call saying, “Well, I think this is it. We're finally going to have another great financial crisis.” The irony is we finally did get a market crash last year and it was something nobody could have predicted. We were completely blindsided! Who could have predicted we would have a global pandemic, that the global economy would shut down. NO ONE figured that out. So the idea is, you always want to be prepared for a crash in your portfolio, have that protection in place because when the next crash comes, no one's going to know ahead of time.
This week’s hidden facts of finance Since 1948 the S&P 500 index has returned an average of 14% a year when Democrats have controlled Congress and the White House. The S&P is already up over 2% in 2021 so we're already ahead of the game, only 12% to go. Wait a minute. Democrats aren't even in power yet. Why is it going up? Because at the end of the day as long as there is SOMEONE sitting in those chairs in the White House, Congress, and the Senate the stock market is going to go up. At least that’s what history has proved over the last 200 years.
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Happy New Year on this 20th episode of Payne Points of Wealth. Things are getting interesting. Wall Street all of a sudden has rose-colored glasses. Goldman Sachs came out and was looking for a 15% return this year on the S&P 500 as the world has apparently become more bullish overnight. The questions… Will it be a good year in the stock market or a bad year? How do you allocate your money? Last year was a crazy tumultuous year in the markets, and probably a tumultuous year for your financial plan too. So, we're going to break down what lessons we can learn and we're going to talk about how we can carry those lessons over and apply them to 2021 to make it a great year. Join us!
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Goldman Sachs predictions… are they even worth reading? [1:10] * FAT MAG doesn’t represent a reopening economy [4:15] * Big cap tech is hot right now but will it stay that way? [5:57] * The Tipping Point [8:11] * What to do when your asset allocation gets out of whack [11:02] * The financial Goldilocks of the emergency fund [13:59] * The importance of legacy planning [15:24] * Hidden Facts of Finance [18:40]
FAT MAG or FAT GAM which is your favorite acronym? Ryan is pleased with his creation of an acronym for the S&P’s big 6— Facebook, Apple, Tesla, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google— but he can’t seem to settle on an order. What do you think… FAT MAG or GAM?
In any case, you’ve got a lot of money concentrated in a very small pool of stocks. Stocks that don’t exactly represent the economy reopening either. This could potentially lead to an ironic trade where the S&P 500 actually underperforms this year even though the economy is rockin’. It's one of the reasons why you want to be diversified. We are already seeing other sectors like small caps and energy that are outperforming. Check out the episode to learn more!
This week on the tipping point: Lessons Learned Staying invested, rebalancing until you don’t have to, optimistic retirement planning, having the right amount in your emergency fund, and the importance of having a legacy plan BEFORE it’s needed are some of the key lessons we took away from 2020. Join us for this episode’s tipping point to hear the meat and potatoes from each of these valuable lessons. They are definitely some you don’t want to miss!
This week’s hidden facts of finance An investor who put $10,000 into the S&P 500 index fund at the start of 1980 and missed the market's best five days through the end of August 2020— just 5 days over a 20yr period— would have a return of almost 40% less than an investor that just remained invested. That's insane. The market does that though, it pushes you to the point where you can't take it anymore. You get tired of it going down so your get out until it's done going down and just like that you can miss the BEST days! Check out the episode for more hidden facts!
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In this episode, we’re going to talk about the reopening of the economy and those big mega-cap tech stocks that are now going to be part of the S&P 500. Additionally, we will discuss products Wall Street loves to sell to scam you and what to avoid at all costs so you can create a portfolio that will give you better odds to win long-term and create your wealth. We’ve got a great show for you. Let’s get to it!
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Money moving from big tech to value stocks [1:30] * What is a small-cap value stock? [4:00] * The sucker trade of the year [6:44] * The Tipping Point [9:04] * Can I put my entire net worth into Apple stock? [11:31] * Should high yield bonds be in your portfolio? [12:59] * Whole life insurance policies [14:31] * S&P 500 stocking stuffers [16:39] * Hidden Facts of Finance [18:37] * The new second richest man in the world [19:35] * TV blues [23:09]
What does rotation even mean? It’s Wall Street jargon! When we're talking about rotation it means money has been moving out of these big tech names and moving into other stocks like value stocks. Value stocks such as financials or energy stocks. And we talk about the proverbial reopening of the economic trade like money going into cruise stocks, airlines, hotels, or pretty much anything but tech. These small-cap stocks outperform larger companies and they are less expensive and inexpensive stocks outperform expensive ones. Why is it that investors miss the fact that there are all these other great opportunities out there when they're investing money?
This week on the tipping point: This season’s financial stocking stuffers Here are a few financial instruments that you may want to have in your stocking this year...and maybe some you don’t. First up are annuities, which can be very appropriate for some of you but should not be the only thing in your portfolio. They often come with an income stream for life, and who’s not attracted to THOSE words! However, that can come at a cost. All annuities are not all created equal so know what you’re getting before you stuff this into your stocking. Check out the episode for the rest of this story!
This week’s hidden facts of finance Airbnb shares more than doubled on their market debut on the NASDAQ stock market two weeks ago, and DoorDash certs, 86% all in its first day of trading. Is this a bubble? Anything that goes up 86% in its first days is more than likely being very overinflated. So we would say yes.
The sale of Bob Dylan’s songwriting catalog to universal music publishing group was announced last week, the price wasn't disclosed, but it said it was sold between $300 and $400 million. There may be a lot of people excited to hear those songs sung by someone other than Bob. We’ve got some more facts for you so be sure to tune in to hear them!
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Fear of losing money has been replaced by FOMO as investors are now plunging into the markets, putting more money into ETFs than we've seen over the last 12 months. With Coronavirus cases on the rise, hospitalizations on the rise, and mortality rates on the rise what's going to happen next? Has the market come too far too fast? Should investors wait for a big dip? We're going to break that down for you. We'll also be talking about getting good financial advice versus getting bad advice. How do you know if you’re working with a true financial professional? Our hope is that after this podcast you’ll have those answers so make sure to tune in! We've got a great show for you!
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Are the buy signal wires crossed for average investors? [1:11] * The Santa Clause Rally [3:19] * Thinking like a corporate CEO [5:46] * The Tipping Point [9:33] * Examples of naughty vs nice financial advisors [10:04] * What an advisor on the nice list looks like [14:07] * Hidden Facts of Finance [19:05] * Why having a global portfolio now can pay off in the future [21:39] * Getting Tesla stock for a premium [24:17]
Is the doom & gloom media striking fear into would-be investors? We had $81 billion pour into the equity market in the month of November alone. That means that 32% of all the money to flow into the market came into play last month. We wonder if the signal to buy for the average investor is the market being at all-time highs. Why didn’t they buy in October when the market was on sale? There's a reason why people are fearful of the market, why they don't like to buy when the market's going up. Because even though they see it's a booming bull market all you see are the headlines that are dire and negative. We get pounded every day with news of COVID deaths rising, the spread of the pandemic, and political drama but there's a lot of good news that's happening it’s just not making the headlines. Hear more when you listen to the episode!
This week on the tipping point: Has your financial advisor been naughty or nice? Example: My financial advisor is very good at talking about all different types of investments. She's a very astute investor. However, I don't see any credentials after her name so she's definitely not a CFP. She doesn't offer any advice on the planning side of my life, only on what to buy and what to sell. Naughty or Nice? This is definitely one that goes on the naughty list. Any advisor that gives investment advice without coming up with some kind of a financial plan is definitely a big no-no.
Example: My advisor says I'm not paying any fees and I don't see any fees coming out of my portfolio. Is this too good to be true? Naughty or Nice? I don't know about the advisor, but this is the naughtiest way you can possibly invest. It’s very likely you’re getting gouged in fees and just don’t realize it. More detail on this in the episode, go check it out!
Example: My advisor calls me every quarter checks in on me personally, reviews my portfolio, and proactively discusses financial issues outside the realm of just my investments. For example, she helped me refinance my mortgage this year and I'm now saving $1500 a month. Naughty or Nice? Well, not only is this advisor on the nice list but she probably works for Payne Capital Management!
This week’s hidden facts of finance The worst days for the market are usually followed by the best days. Since the 1930s, if an investor sat out the best 10 return days for each decade, their returns would be just 19% compared to 16000% had they just stayed invested. If you need an example of how important it is to stay invested last month small company stocks went up 20% in 30 days. That's two years’ worth of return in basically 10 days. If you need a good example of why you need to be invested, look at what happened last month. November was a great case in point of why market timing is just treacherous. For more on this hidden fact and others check out the episode.
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November showed off with one of the best months on record with the Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ all up over 10%. In fact, the Dow had its best month since 1987. And speaking of big numbers, Tesla is valued at over $537 billion— as much as Warren Buffet's company Berkshire Hathaway— and is the largest company ever to enter the S&P 500. The question becomes, where do you put your money now as the market continues to go higher with the S&P stuffed like a pinata with Mega Cap companies? Can this sustain through the new year? We're going to break it down for you today. We've got a great episode. Let's check it out.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Small Caps making a big splash [1:24] * What is true diversification? [2:51] * Good news in the global economy [5:14] * The Tipping Point [7:43] * Smart 2020 tax moves [8:16] * Giving $300 to charity [11:10] * Hidden Facts of Finance [15:39] * Stock ownership stats [17:18] * Investment equality [19:24]
You can’t win trying to time the Market With an election at the beginning of the month, all the uncertainty, and with a pandemic, who could have predicted that just like that you'd see stocks go up between 10 and 20%. You just can't predict those things ahead of time, and that’s why we always say you can’t time the market.
Let's face it, this stock market, any market, the world markets are the most humbling places in the universe. There are smarter people than us-- smarter people than the analysts who are trying to figure it out--all trying to gain something that can't be gained, something that can't be predicted. It's too complex, and lesser men than economists have tried to beat or predict what's unpredictable and what's unknowable. The only real winners are long-term investors with patience, fortitude, and a plan.
This week on the tipping point I thought we could discuss some of the financial issues we are addressing for our firm's clients before the end of the year. Not that anybody's going to be unhappy to see 2020 in the books; 2021 can't come too soon enough. Unfortunately, going into the new year means it’s time for taxes. You’ll want to make sure you don't pay more in taxes than necessary. There are a lot of smart moves you can make right now to finish up the year, so be sure to check out the episode to learn more.
This week’s hidden facts of finance Historically, gold has been the preferred way to hedge against inflation, and the value of gold still dwarfs Bitcoin with above-ground gold reserves worth more than $10 trillion and the Bitcoin is $320 billion; however, gold and Bitcoin aren't great inflation hedges. The best inflation hedge in history has been good old equities. Stocks that pay dividends because dividends are increased, and that increases the value of your investment against the cost of living. We're not talking about Tesla here, for the record, we're talking about a diversified portfolio of stocks to pay dividends. Dividends are the key.
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We basically have the same story over and over again, pundits are concerned about the second wave of the Coronavirus and as we’re recording this, we have a change of regimen of government, and a new president starting in January. What does that mean for the markets? The concern is abounding and there is record cash, yet the market continues to go higher just as we predicted on this podcast weeks ago. So the BIG question is… where do we go now? That's what we're going to dissect on today’s show! Don’t miss it!
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Record highs [1:14] * Impossible timing [2:47] * Economic data -vs- the news [4:44] * Handling a downturn [7:01] * The Tipping Point [8:59] * Fear around investing in the market [10:33] * Too much risk [12:40] * Millennials aren’t 20 anymore and they’re playing catch up [14:31] * Hidden Facts of Finance [17:03] * What creative destruction is around the corner? [18:43] * Finding a needle in a haystack [20:42]
Embracing a history that creates wealth If we know about it— if it's in the press, it's in the price— the market knows about it too, it's not ignoring that. It's the difference between being an informed, educated investor and just waking up every day and making it up as you go. When you look at the historical returns of the market and you look at the history of our economy, it always grows.
If you make a projection of where the S&P, Dow, Russell 2000 or Ethereum Indexes will be in the next 10 years, we'll tell you one thing we know— it's going to be higher. We don't know when it's going to go higher, but it will be higher. It's just a matter of educating yourself on the history of the market. Understanding how the market is always discounting future revenues and future earnings and looking at volatility differently. People shouldn't be afraid of it, they should be embracing it because that's how you create wealth. Interested in hearing more? Check out the episode to see all the brilliant things we have to share!
This week on the tipping point: managing risk Managing risk is one of the most crucial elements of a successful wealth plan. So we thought we’d break down what risk really means to your portfolio. How do you really manage it? Risk is something that's only truly recognized in hindsight. When you think about risk, it's the possibility of something bad happening. No one likes bad things, right? If you're always avoiding something bad then you’re sitting on your hands and inertia causes you to do nothing. But risk does cut both ways so if you're sitting on your hands, in this case, you're sitting in cash. That insidious tax inflation's going to eat away at your purchasing power and you probably won’t be able to retire as early as you’d like. Check out the episode to hear about the flip side of that when you take too much risk!
This week’s hidden facts of finance Every week Ryan goes out of his way to make a point that investing in the S&P 500 is not a one-stop-shop when it comes to investing. The detail that a lot of investors are missing is that it's a global economy and China is coming on strong. Right now there are 119 homegrown electrical vehicle companies in China. They have 1.4 billion potential customers that might be buying upcoming Chinese cars over Tesla cars. Just like Yahoo fell victim to a better search technology being developed by a little known startup called Google back in 2000, you never know what kind of creative destruction's around the corner that will change everything. For more fun facts be sure to listen to the show!
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We told you that you could see a stock melt-up going into the end of the year, and now we're here. Money's come off the sidelines in droves! Money managers are getting reinvested, and the big question comes: Is this it? Have we gotten the melt-up? We are also going to hit on what you should be doing with your wealth plan right now and how you should be setting that up. We're going to break it down for you, so be sure to check out the episode!
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Revenge of the nerds! [1:13] * Growth that’s made everything else pale in comparison [3:04] * Don’t get tricked into thinking you’re diversified [5:13] * The market doesn't care about valuation...until it does [6:08] * The Tipping Point [9:05] * Knowing what you own and why you own it [10:45] * Taking money from your portfolio [12:42] * Something more important than just a good stock idea [16:02] * Hidden Facts of Finance [17:36] * Lending money where you’re guaranteed to lose [19:02] * ETFs cross a milestone for the second time ever in 2020 [21:33]
Tech’s outperformance has “normal stocks” paling in comparison We’ve made a killing in tech stocks over the last 10 years. Its growth has way outperformed what it does historically. Historically, it’s been normal to average about 10% per year. We've seen 18% per year for the last 10 years even though the rest of the value and small-cap companies have done about average. It's not that these small-cap companies are horrible performers, it’s that growth has been so ridiculous over the last 10 years, it makes everything pale in comparison.
This week on the tipping point...knowing what you own and why you own it! Up until the pandemic hit back in March, many people would ask why they own bonds? They don't pay very much. It costs a lot to buy them. However, as the pandemic hit, bonds were the only thing in their portfolio that was profitable, and now you have the ability to take some profits from the bonds and buy back into the market when it's low. A bond is something that is negatively correlated. That just means it goes up and down differently than the rest of your financial assets. For more on this check out the episode!
This week’s hidden facts of finance It may surprise you that when a Democrat takes over the presidency from a Republican (which, for the record, we're NOT saying has happened yet) the average cycle return has been 43.6%. What usually shocks everyone to find out is that a market under a Democratic president historically has done better than a market under a Republican president. Just so you don't get too concerned, it doesn't matter if it's a Democrat or Republican because historically the market's always going up as long as SOMEONE is sitting in the oval office! Check out the show for more hidden facts of finance!
Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
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Today, we're talking about AFTER the election, we’ve talked about the election for the last couple of weeks and we warned you not to let the election get in the way of making good investment decisions. The economy is recovering. And what do you know, the Payne’s were right. The market has been straight up since the election. Well, it's theoretically over, right? We're not 100% sure, but it looks like Biden will be in the White House come January. With elections over and the economy starting to recover the question is... What do you do with your money now? What strategies do you utilize? What should you be looking for? We're also going to talk about other things that can get in the way of good investing and things you need to watch out for in your portfolio to make sure you get on YOUR path to financial independence. Let's hit it. Let's get into it. We've got a great show for you this morning so don’t miss it!
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * The economic recovery that’s being missed [2:01] * Is it a matter of change or waiting on the rules? [3:42] * American’s finding a spend save balance? [5:46] * Economist still casting doubt about spending [7:08] * The Tipping Point: overconfidence in your ability to manage your portfolio [9:09] * The Market is the most humbling place in the Universe! [10:52] * The flip side...lack of confidence [13:27] * Good investing’s just not sexy [15:48] * Growth vs value [17:42] * Hidden Facts of Finance [19:47] * Cash is trash [22:19]
Mind-blowing recovery and the why behind uncertainty Unemployment today is where economists thought it was going to be at the end of next year. We're there a year ahead of schedule. Historically the stock market makes about 10% after net of inflation you're about 6-7%. In the last two weeks, the market went up almost 14%. So that's like two years’ worth of return in two weeks! How’s that for recovery!
Are the political leaders on Capitol Hill smarter than the captains of industry that run our biggest companies? We think companies just sit back and say, okay, what are the roadblocks they're going to create in Washington, DC. They wait until the rules are set so that they can figure out how to maximize profit margins based on their new rules. That's why there's so much uncertainty around elections. It's not a matter of if it’s going to change things. It's a matter of the captains of industry, the companies that you all invest in and that we all own, are waiting to see what the new rules are so they can figure out how to get around them to make the most money for their shareholders and for themselves.
This week on the tipping point We've talked about this a lot in the past, but your ego and overconfidence can get in the way of a solid financial plan. We've seen many cases that have led to destruction in people's financial life because their ego and their overconfidence in their abilities to manage a portfolio made them blind to real holes or issues within their financial plan. Today, we will break that down so that our listeners don't make the same mistakes with their portfolios. If anyone can see holes in portfolios, it's the three of us so tune in to get the goods!
This week’s hidden facts of finance Vehicle sales have experienced a V-shape recovery, increasing 36% from the 2nd to 3rd quarter of 2020. Auto manufacturing contributes more jobs than any other industry when you take into account all the parts, and suppliers, aftermarket servicers, replacement parts suppliers, and support services for a major auto plant. In hindsight, it's not surprising that car sales went up. Who wants to ride the subway during a pandemic!
We've seen more New York license plates in New Jersey than ever before. People are coming out of the cities. They're buying in the suburbs of New Jersey and the subway doesn't get you there! So car sales are increasing. Not a shock in hindsight, but who could have predicted that last March. It’s definitely one of the reasons why the unemployment numbers have come down so much over the course of the last couple of months. Check out this segment for more hidden facts of finance!
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We are finally past the election so we can put that worry behind us... and pick up a new one. As the economy continues to open we’ve seen reports of a spike in Coronavirus cases. Reports have come in about countries in Europe, like France and Germany, starting to lockdown again. The uncertainty has shifted to how we are going to keep reopening the economy. However, if you look PAST those headlines of “Europe Shutting Down” you will see that schools are still open, you can still get a haircut, it’s not the kind of lockdowns we faced in March, it’s more like lockdown lite! Listen to the episode for the full story and loads of other great info!
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * The news in plain sight [0:33] * The certainty of uncertainty [1:46] * Necessity is the mother of invention [3:23] * What’s going to drive stocks higher? [5:12] * Dividends are going up! [6:40] * The Tipping Point [8:53] * How do you get money in the market without being all or nothing? [11:23] * Have a trusted advisor to rebalance your portfolio [14:03] * Building your Arc before the flood comes [16:16] * Hidden Facts of Finance [18:21]
More signs of a recovering economy Stock dividends are going up. Income's going up. It’s like every company is saying, “Hey, our picture looks good for next year. We're comfortable paying out some of our profits now.” They weren't comfortable with that just a couple of months ago. We think that's a vote for the future! If you're comfortable paying out your profits, that says your future looks pretty good.
A stat we came across recently shows 1.5 million businesses formed in the last quarter. That’s 80% quarter over quarter. That means that as we're coming out of this recession, businesses are getting started. People are looking for opportunities and they're doing it on a huge scale and that has to bode well for the economy next year, and just looking forward to it in general.
This week on the tipping point Trying to pick individual stocks is like trying to pick the winner in a beauty contest. Your definition of beauty doesn't determine who the winner is. You may think that one candidate is better looking or more talented than another candidate but only the judges’ opinions matter. If you're going to pick the winner of a beauty contest you have to figure out what the judge's view of beauty is. Figuring out what the judges think is the same thing as picking stock in the market. It's not about picking good companies, it's about figuring out what the judges— the people that are buying stocks— want and what THEY consider good companies. And you know what, unless you can read people's minds, you might as well just go to the racetrack. Check out this awesome episode to hear more!
This week’s hidden facts of finance US online holiday shopping is expected to grow 33% this year up $189 billion! Amazon plans to hire 100,000 temporary workers for the holidays. That’s a good reminder job growth follows economic growth. Amazon tripled their profits last quarter and based on their conference call, they expect the fourth quarter to be even bigger. It just goes to show, you can never discount the American consumer. The sun rises in the East—mom and American spend. Listen to the segment for more interesting facts!
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Maybe it’s time to get into cash, wait this thing out, see what happens. Then when cooler heads prevail make some investment decisions later...what do you think?
By the time you listen to this, the election will have taken place but it may not be over. The volatility caused may still be lingering as well. We just hope you aren’t sitting around— in cash— waiting for the perfect time to get back in the game only to miss the biggest melt-up of the decade! We hope you’ve been listening as we’ve told you to stay in so you don’t miss the big move. It can happen in an instant and if you aren’t in when it comes you’ll never make it up! You have to keep the long term goal in sight. Join us this week as we talk about this and more and perhaps have a few (much needed) laughs along the way.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Have we been wrong all along? [0:46] * Where’s the bigger risk? [2:38] * Things people aren’t paying attention to [4:22] * Something we hear time & time again [6:22] * Investing in next year...today [8:06] * 5 days equals 30% of a 50 year period [9:26] * The Tipping Point: Now or Later? [10:11] * Have your people talk to...YOUR people [12:30] * To debt or not to debt [14:28] * Are you up to date? [15:56] * The perfect estate plan [18:05] * Hidden Facts of Finance [19:33] * We HAVE been here before and it led us to the roaring ’20s [21:27]
Sometimes you don’t see things you aren’t looking for There are some things happening that aren’t getting attention. Everyone is really hot on the Teslas of the world but they aren't talking about things like small caps— which have started to do really well. There many things in different areas in the market that are improving and people aren't paying attention. A lot of people don't realize that China made a new high last week. The focus is on the S&P 500 and there’s a recovery happening around the world that’s being missed.
This week on the tipping point When it comes to making decisions on your financial plan, sometimes it's more beneficial to defer action other times it's critical to address something right away. How do you know when to do what? In this episode, we discuss some different financial matters and decide if it's good or bad to put them off.
One example. If you're saving in your retirement accounts— your 401ks or 403B's— you're putting money in pretax, so you are deferring taxes. The problem is eventually when you're 72 you have to start taking it out THEN it becomes what we call a ticking tax time bomb. Those required minimum distributions could potentially push you into a much higher bracket making it a very tax-inefficient portfolio. If you're a younger investor, you might want to look at that Roth 401k option where it's after-tax. The beauty in a Roth 401k, or some other Roth account, is that all that growth is tax-free later. Listen to the episode for more examples!
This week’s hidden facts of finance You’ve probably heard people voice concern about this pandemic because we've never in history had to deal with something like this. However, the fact is we have! We had the Spanish flu in 1918, 1919, & 1920, last checked— there's NO vaccine for the Spanish flu. How did our economy recover then? How did the world recover from the Spanish flu? We don't really know, but we do know it recovered, we know we have been here before. To top that off the 1918 Spanish flu was followed by the roaring ‘20s, one of the greatest economies in the history of the planet! Something to look forward to? We think so!
Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris * http://PayneCM.com * Follow on Twitter * Follow on Facebook * Follow on LinkedIn * Subscribe on YouTube * Follow on Instagram
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It seems week after week it's the same story. A lot of uncertainty out there. Most Wall Street strategists have been negative and wary. Bob, Ryan, and Chris had been very bullish and the market continues to go higher. Bob, Ryan, and Chris continue to be right while strategists continue to be wrong. What's going on?
There’s a fog of uncertainty that seems to be shadowed by the fact that earnings are starting to get strong. In truth, of the 10% of the S&P companies that recently reported their earnings, 86% topped the consensus expectations. Even though the analysts and the economist continue to be pessimistic we’ve had good economic numbers on a weekly basis and quarterly earnings are off to a phenomenal start. Listen to the episode for more info.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * The news in plain sight [0:35] * Is economic growth picking up? [2:04] * Elections affecting pullbacks in the market [3:49] * Reality... [5:03] * Something stocks love [5:54] * The irony of right now [7:02] * The Tipping Point [9:05] * Why we’ve never had a client hold a bond fund [12:52] * The best advice you can give anybody right now [13:53] * 900 times forward earnings! [15:54] * Hidden Facts of Finance [18:06] * Past performance doesn’t tell you what will happen going forward [19:53]
Don’t miss the melt-up because you were sitting in cash The great irony right now is that you may think that by going to cash you're playing it safe, but in reality, what you're doing is risking a huge melt up to the upside. Because of low-interest rates and de-urbanization the housing and automobile markets are growing like crazy. We've been talking about this trend a lot. In New York City people are leaving and going to the suburbs. Then they need to buy a car, so car sales are up 50% in the last couple of months. So that part of the economy is already cooking.
What if we start to travel again on top of that? It's almost like it's going to be the economy on steroids versus where we were in January pre-pandemic. We’re really scared to miss the upside here and investors should be too. You shouldn't be worried about another big sell-off, which could happen, but realistically we probably won't see one as we did in March. But what you want in on this year is a huge melt up to the upside. If you miss that move, if you miss that return, that's basically your next decade of move in stocks. If you want more on this topic and more check out this episode of Payne Points of Wealth!
This week on the tipping point The best advice we can give right now is that the #1 thing you need to know— the only true hedge in any portfolio— isn't gold, it isn't buying puts, it isn't trading the market. It's owning high-quality bonds that have a fixed rate of interest and a maturity date. That’s the only hedge we’ve ever seen in 45 years that works, and it works every single time. You want to protect your principal owned bonds that have a fixed rate of return and maturity date and make sure they're high quality. And be sure you have someone who knows what they're doing to be certain that they're high quality! Listen to the tipping point segment for more great tips!
This week’s hidden facts of finance The best performing stock’s past performance is 100% indicative of… past performance. It doesn't tell you what's going to happen going forward. When a stock goes up 100% it typically doesn't go up 100% the next year. At one point this year, before its stock tumbled, Nikola was worth more than Ford Motor’s $30 billion market capitalization. It now trades at 7.4 billion. The biggest difference between Nikola and Ford is that Ford actually has earnings. Just to remind everybody of the risk in the market, you could have purchased Nikola stock at 80 in June and it’s 20 today.
Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris * http://PayneCM.com * Follow on Twitter * Follow on Facebook * Follow on LinkedIn * Subscribe on YouTube * Follow on Instagram
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The real loss in the market is when you succumb to your emotions. There are many markets and they are all affected by different situations. None of them ever drops to zero, even though that seems to be the driving fear behind so many decisions to get out instead of staying in for the long haul. Listen to this episode of Payne Points of Wealth to hear more on how to combat this fear and many more valuable tips.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Why the market doesn’t care what everyone else is worried about [1:22] * Secret indicators nobody knows about [3:08] * Things that aren’t being talked about [5:46] * Being smarter than your DNA [8:14] * The tipping point [10:10] * A picture that saves you 3000 words [13:30] * Fear of no control [17:55] * Hidden facts of Finance [19:50] * The death bell ringing at the movies [21:36] * The superpower that isn’t growing [22:12] * The second biggest total on record for the worst thing you can own [24:39]
Opportunity is calling… are you listening? We are all human beings and we project a future based on our own most recent experiences, on the other hand, the stock market never looks back. It’s always moving forward. Always pricing in what’s coming months and years down the road. The market tells you every day where the opportunity is. The question is… are you listening? Check out this episode for a wealth of tips on how to be a better listener!
This week on the tipping point Should you have an exit strategy if things get bad? What if there is a sell-off between now and the end of the year? We think you have to be comfortable with a couple of laws we call protecting your portfolio against downturns. A big part of that is bear markets, it's not that uncommon and it's going to happen over time. Markets go down, but they also go up, it doesn't mean you have to get in or out. Overcome the fear that arises from negative news by not putting all of your money in one place— be diversified!
You don't want to bet it all on one situation, you want to have an ALL situations portfolio. That way no matter what happens— whether the market goes up or down— you have something that can benefit or something that can protect you. Listen to the Tipping Point segment for the full story and the answers to the questions above.
This week’s hidden facts of finance The outcome of the US election doesn't matter to most Chinese companies whose ownership and business operations are largely domestic. Over the last six months, we’ve heard “I don't want a Chinese company in my portfolio” or “I don't want a company that does business with China, in my portfolio” so we made a list of stocks they can own— there were none!
If you have a portfolio of domestic companies and you own a great American company and the CEO gets up and says there are 1.4 billion potential customers for our product. But because you requested not to do business with China, we're not going to sell anything to those 1.4 billion customers, we're going to let our competition do it. I'll tell you what I'm doing that day. I'm selling that stock and buying the stock of the competition. Check out the segment for other random facts!
Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris * http://PayneCM.com * Follow on Twitter * Follow on Facebook * Follow on LinkedIn * Subscribe on YouTube * Follow on Instagram
Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify
If You're Sitting in Cash Your Biggest Risk is the Cost of Opportunity, Ep 09
Politics still have things stirred up but the market seems to be handling it better than people are. Use this volatility as your ally because it seems like fear versus market action is disconnected right now. Just because YOU think the market is going to drop due to election results (whatever they may be) doesn’t mean it WILL.
Never discount the American consumer's ability to spend money. It’s not smart to bet against it. What happens when we get a vaccine or when we get comfortable again? People start traveling, taking cruises, and flying again. The lockdown economy made a ton of money while everyone was in solitary confinement but what about the un-locked-down economy? It's about to boom again. No matter who's in office. Tune in to this week’s episode for the full scoop on this and more!
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * News in plain sight: POTUS & FLOTUS’ covid effect on the market [0:39] * Your political bias and your portfolio [1:45] * Are things going to hell in a handbasket? [3:40] * What’s driving the economy? [5:03] * Will consumers start to spend again...did they ever stop? [7:24] * The Tipping Point [10:53] * Holding stock in the company that cuts your checks… is it a good idea? [15:52] * Hidden Facts of Finance [21:30] * Old school over new school in gains [28:06]
Appreciation isn’t the only return A big thing that people miss in terms of a portfolio of investments is that the return comes not only from appreciation but also from income. When you have a portfolio of high-quality bonds— and you should ONLY own high-quality bonds— and you also have high-quality stocks in that portfolio, you're actually making money every day. People have these buy low and sell high ideas and that's garbage! Stay invested! A better way of looking at it is to get paid while you wait for your money to double. That's the way you should look at it. What it comes down to is your biggest risk is not the election, it's that person you look at in the mirror every day. It’s their political convictions that are getting in the way and stopping you from being a good unbiased investor. If you miss a big move up in stocks, you never get that return back and if you've already missed the summer melt-up, don't miss the next move up too! Stop sitting in cash, get in, and stay in!
This week on the tipping point Vanguard released its annual report called How America Saves, with several interesting facts about the investment world. Studies showed that 78% of investors use target date funds in their 401k with 54% using only target date funds. Another interesting fact is that 74% of all Vanguard 401k plans offer a Roth option, but only 12% of participants in those plans had elected the Roth option. The last stat we want to mention is that in the 10 years between 2010 and 2020, the number of people holding company stock in their 401k dropped by 16%. What might be the reason for this? And would you consider it a positive trend? You’ll want to catch the episode to get our thoughts— good, bad, and the ugly— on these stats.
This week’s hidden facts of finance Ball Corporation recorded the lowest coupon ever for a junk bond with a maturity of five years at 2.8, seven 5% in August. The Double-B rated market, AKA junk bonds, is about 55% of the high yield bond market. As of the end of July, bond buyer beware. When you look at bonds and your portfolio, you want to have two things… you want to have a bond that comes due and you want to have a fixed coupon. Well, this bond does have a fixed coupon of 2.875%, but it may not come due. The problem with junk is that they can go out of business. They have a higher probability of failing. When you invest in bonds you want safety. Returning your money's important return of your money is paramount. Listen to the full segment to hear the rest of our hidden facts of finance!
Resources & People Mentioned * Vanguard report on How America Saves
See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
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As headwinds continue to blow, uncertainty continues to be at heightened levels. What we're hearing and seeing is everyone feeling like the economy is starting to stall. That we've had a V-shape recovery and there's this consensus out there that maybe it's over. Top that with an impending second wave of the pandemic as the weather gets colder and the question we are getting over and over again is… Is it time to cash out before the election? Is the economic rebound finally over? Do you think that means that everybody's thinking the same thing at the same time? Could that also mean that the market may have already priced in all this news? Join us on this episode of Payne Points of Wealth to find out.
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Volatility & Uncertainty are your friends… dressed in a mask trying to scare you to death, Ep 07
The real story this week is that election uncertainty is upon us! You're hearing more and more news about how the election will affect the markets. Contributing factors causing volatility are the recent death of a supreme court justice, tension in the political realm, riots going on in different cities, all the while we are STILL in the middle of a pandemic. What else could go wrong here? The big question on many investor's minds this week is should I... Stay in cash? Get invested? If I am invested, is it time to go to cash and just wait for this thing to blow over? Listen to the episode to get our take on the answers to these questions!
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In pandemonic times, zero-commission trading platforms have become the casino of Americans who are cooped up at home. Companies like Robinhood are offering zero-commission trading, making people less hesitant to trade. That combined with the fact that alcohol sales are up 14% since the beginning of COVID and a 92% increase in options trades this year leads us to think there may be a lot of people making some questionable trade decisions.
Sitting at home without the typical legal gambling outlets the stock market seems to have become the place where huge bets are being made by those looking to satisfy their gambling fix. At the casino, you put money on the table — that’s what buying a call option equates to — putting money on a table and hoping for a return. Options trading is challenging and not something the average investor should try to tackle on their own. Following trends isn’t investing it’s speculation. In a game of speculation, the house is more likely to win, so I guess our advice today would be don't drink and trade and stay out of the casino. Hopefully some good will come out of this though and people will start to understand investing and jump in for the long haul by buying individual stocks or index funds because that’s where the REAL money is made.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Drinking options...oh, wait we meant options trading. [0:39] * Tech bubble talk. [3:01] * “Paradigm shift” [4:25] * A huge consequence of concentrating your money in one place. [5:08] * Questions to ask yourself? [7:24] * The tipping point: Investment hearsay. [9:00] * When it comes to financial planning what’s best for you? [14:39] * Hidden facts of finance: Retail blues. [18:37]
Tech bubble, same old same, or something different this time? Let’s talk tech bubble... again...it’s prime time in the news when talking about financial markets and what we are hearing is that it is different this go around. That it’s not the same as the tech bubble of 99-2000 when there was this big proliferation of cheap online trading sites, doctors and lawyers were quitting day jobs to become day traders, and you had this belief that there was this new economy. But wait… doesn’t that sound a lot like 99-2000 after all?
When it comes down to it you have to ask yourself, is mean reversion still a thing, or are those lofty tech valuations eventually going to come back down to earth. You should also question whether or not you believe we're going to beat this virus? Is the economy going to reopen again? If it does are all those stocks that are benefiting from lockdown going to be great long-term buys. As the economy picks up and grows, as we go out, drive more, and fly more, as we go back to our normal routines how will that affect the market? What stocks are going to benefit from that? Or is this new normal going to last forever? If history has taught us anything it’s that nothing lasts forever.
Investment hearsay is this week’s tipping point What’s the pain point that has the biggest impact on your wealth right now? When it comes to investing your money and financial planning, we think it’s “investment hearsay”. People love to give blanketed advice. Even if they have no credentials and no professional background. They feel like it's okay to give unsolicited investment and financial planning advice and it gets consumed like it's actual gospel. We think it's really dangerous. You get this advice from cocktail parties or maybe someone very confident about how they invest their money, and a lot of times it's just completely WRONG. Are you getting dangerous advice from unqualified people?
Retail blues on this week’s hidden facts of finance This week’s hidden fact is all about “retail blues”. Twenty-four(24) retailers have filed for bankruptcy from Jan - July 16, 2020! That’s more in half of this year than all of 2019 combined. We are also looking at as many as 25k stores closing in 2020 vs 9832 in 2019. This has a great deal to do with the pandemic but it’s also due to online retail.
Zoom stock has zoomed up 465% in 2020 is now worth more than a hundred billion dollars. Peloton has a market cap of 25 billion after gaining 209% this year, as its stationary bikes replaced gym memberships. Netflix stock is up from $1 to a close of $500, adjusted for splits, since its debut less than two decades ago.
See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes Resources & People Mentioned Robinhood
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris * http://PayneCM.com * Follow on Twitter * Follow on Facebook * Follow on LinkedIn * Subscribe on YouTube * Follow on Instagram
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Over the past week, we’ve gotten calls from long-time clients who are asking us what sounds like a reasonable question: “Why are we not putting ALL my money in these growth stocks that keep going up?” As we said, it SOUNDS like a good plan, but it’s based on a wrong understanding of how the market works. When stocks are high — and most of the stocks in the current growth stocks are so high they are overvalued — you don’t want to buy them. Buy low and sell high is the motto of savvy investors.
Ryan likens the markets over these past two weeks to a massive casino. Traders have been basing their trades on the most recent happenings in the market — tech stocks that keep going up — so they try to ride that train even further. But this week, the train hit the brakes a bit. Is it the beginning of the end?
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * Finally, some tech sell-offs — and the question on everyone’s minds [0:33] * The “smart money” is positioning in cheaper asset classes, not what’s hot [5:30] * And the economy keeps getting better [7:55] * Two fundamental things when it comes to income plans [10:26] * Why your portfolio should be based on your goals and a diversified strategy [16:27] * The random facts of finance that may shock you [18:03]
The tech bubble could be popping, or is it just a correction? As we began to see sell-offs of tech stocks this past week, everyone began asking the question: "Is this it? Is the tech bubble about to burst?" We tend to think it’s the beginning of the end because stocks that go up when the sales of the company haven’t gone up are risky at best. The growth we’ve seen in these stocks is superficial, driven by speculation, not sound investment strategy. It’s only a matter of time before it’s over — and it looks like it could very well be over.
Economists are batting 1000 — and all wrong We’ve all got that friend or relative who continually sees the glass half empty. There are lots of reasons some people see the world through a negative lens, but one thing Bob has always said is that many people think they sound smarter when they talk negatively or critically about things. Economists these days seem to be in that boat. All they can say about the economy is skeptical, but the reality is that we’re much better off than anyone predicted and it just keeps getting better.
In every dark cloud, there are silver linings and in the current situation, you can take advantage of what’s happening in the economy to profit from it. But you have to take your eyes off the glitzy, fancy-looking things out there and instead, look at the common sense things that are happening and invest in them. In this conversation, we chat about some of those and give tangible examples of how the smart money is going in this direction.
Your income plan needs to have clearly defined income streams Do you even know the different types of income that fuel your lifestyle? There are likely more types of income than you think. First, and the one most of us think of, is wages or earned income. But there is also Social Security and pensions, rental income, annuities, and interest and dividends earned on stock holdings. You want to build your retirement portfolio for income because income is what will matter most to you during retirement.
But as you do so, do it in a diversified manner. You don’t want to overweight any one investment. That can bring on sudden losses that are devastating. What you need to keep in mind is that even when the market is down, interest and dividends don’t really change that much. That means interest and dividends can easily be the biggest part of your return, long term. The secret to investing is that if you own investments that pay income, and if you don’t spend that income, it gets reinvested to buy more shares for your portfolio. That is sustainable, dependable, repeatable income — and it’s smart. Listen to hear more about how you can make it happen.
Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
- Warren Buffett
- The Blackstone Group
- Kansas City Southern
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris * http://PayneCM.com * Follow on Twitter * Follow on Facebook * Follow on LinkedIn * Subscribe on YouTube * Follow on Instagram
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We are beginning to sound like a broken record — you remember what a record is, don’t you? Again, we’re discussing the incredible sustained growth of tech stocks in the U.S. even though many of them, like Peloton and Tesla are not posting ANY profits. What’s going to happen with this tech bubble bursts? Are you putting yourself at risk?
And why are some people so afraid of the stock market? It’s one of the only investment vehicles that on average, always goes up. That may sound like an exaggeration but it’s not. Listen to this episode to find out why we can say that, what it means for smart investors, and how you can make sure that your investment strategy is proactive rather than reactive.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * The mind-numbing tech stats (worth more than all of Europe) [0:38] * Doing the simple math on the top five tech companies - does it make sense? [5:47] * It’s a huge opportunity cost by NOT investing your money [10:20] * We always think the country we are from is the best for investing [19:01] * New York City has a 20% unemployment rate. Wow! [19:35] * When insiders are buying, you don’t want to be on the outside, looking in [22:55]
Who will be left holding the bag when the soaring tech stocks take a dump? As one example of the insanity happening with tech stocks right now, Tesla stock continues to go up — and what does Tesla do? They issue more stock. That only benefits Tesla, not retail investors who keep buying up their stock. There are lessons to be learned here friends, and some of it comes from looking at history. Back in 2007 the European stock market was worth four times the U.S. Tech sector. Today it’s just the opposite. So, why not buy European stocks now while U.S.tech is so high as an investment in the future?
The point is this: the tech stock bubble will not continue forever. Smart investors like Warren Buffett and Tim Cook (Apple’s CEO) know this. Warren is buying in Japan right now, as well as energy, and Bank of America Financial (all of which is being poo-pooed on the financial channels right now). Tim Cook just sold $130M worth stock in his own company, Apple (a tech company, by the way). What does that tell you? Would you sell your company’s stock if you were convinced the company would go up 1000-fold in the next few weeks? Diversification is a good play right now, to prepare for what’s coming.
Markets are like a pendulum, swinging between fear and greed The reason people feel like the stock market is risky is that they’ve listened to too many horror stories about someone who lost their shirt in the market. But most people who tell that tale are guilty of buying a few favorites without keeping a balanced portfolio. Yes, tech is doing extremely well right now, and nobody can tell you the day and time the current tech bubble is going to burst. So should you ride it out, hoping for the best? Hope is not a good investment strategy. You need to be proactive rather than reactive when it comes to investing. Diversifying your money makes sense and it’s the strategy that’s hiding in plain sight during this tech insanity.
People will always do what’s in their best interest - until they become afraid Because people always do what’s in their best interest, many are holding cash right now, waiting out the pandemic and the upcoming election before they decide what to do with their money. But that's unwise thinking. The reality is this: holding cash is MORE risky long-term than stock market investing. Here’s why: Inflation goes up by 3% every year, so you have to grow your money to keep up with what it costs you just to live. With the average Money Market account yielding 1%, you can see what’s happening if cash is your current strategy.
If you understand how the stock market works and keep a balanced portfolio, all you can do is win. The market may adjust from time to time, and when it does people become afraid, but your shares don’t disappear when the market goes down. You still own them. So should the market drop, and you keep your cash IN the market until it goes back up (and it will), you will reap the reward. Just know that the fact is that stocks have gone up over your entire lifetime, even though they pull back at times, and you can be at ease.
Resources & People Mentioned * Warren Buffett * Tesla * Peloton
See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris * http://PayneCM.com * Follow on Twitter * Follow on Facebook * Follow on LinkedIn * Subscribe on YouTube * Follow on Instagram
Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify
One of Bob’s favorite sayings is this: “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it sort of rhymes.” When it comes to financial trends and market behavior, it’s many times more true than most people realize. In this episode, we discuss the similarities today’s market has with the market conditions that existed back in 2009 — and what it could mean for the current big tech stock growth.
We also have a big treat for you, our first guest, Adam Johnson. Adam’s newsletter, “Bullseye Brief” is something all three of us subscribe to and read weekly. His insights into what’s happening in the market and how to best leverage it for growth are amazing. His portfolio is up 30% this year already. Stick around, this episode is definitely worth your time.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... THE NEWS IN PLAIN SIGHT
- Today’s bear market turned bull [2:01]
- Comparing earnings in 1999 to earnings numbers we see today [3:40]
OUR FIRST GUEST - Adam Johnson
- Adam’s view on the markets - we’re roughly where we should have been had COVID never happened [9:40]
- Why Adam doesn’t care for gold because he’s about ingenuity and growth [14:26]
- The base case on the S&P 500 from Adam’s point of view [16:26]
THE TIPPING POINT
- The rules of investing [18:43]
- Markets tend to return to the mean, over time [20:42]
THE HIDDEN FACTS OF FINANCE
- 6 million trading accounts have been opened recently [24:50]
- U.S. companies are very involved in China, even its stock market [26:01]
- Global eCommerce is still only between 22% and 25% of sales [29:01]
History doesn’t repeat itself, but it kind of rhymes When looking at what’s happening in today’s markets, it’s eerily similar to the 2009-2010 time frame. At the peak of the dot com bubble at that time, tech stocks were 35% of actively traded stocks. Today, big tech is trading even higher at 37%. Today’s S&P 500 is trading at 26X this year’s forward earnings, which is exactly what it was trading at back in September of 2009. And back then, the NASDAQ traded at 35X forward earnings and is trading at that same pace today.
What’s the point? We just might want to consider what happened back then, after tech stock prices kept rising and rising. They didn’t stay high. They came tumbling down when the bubble burst. Are there lessons for today’s investors? Listen to hear how overvaluations and tech investing newbies may be leading investors to a similar downturn.
Those who don’t know history are destined to repeat it Let’s take TESLA as an example of the craziness going on right now. Its stock is up 525% over the last 12 months and a Bank of America analyst just upgraded it. Chris just had a conversation with a client whose TESLA stock is up 80% but he’s hesitant to take the profits from it for fear it will go even higher and he'll miss out. What he’s failing to realize is that what’s happened to TESLA is not normal market behavior. When the tide goes the other way, it’s not pretty.
We can see that investor behavior really hasn’t changed much over the years or through the generations. Millennials are still trading stocks that are up rather than doing the due diligence needed to make wise, long-term investments. It’s not as alluring to buy low because those stocks are not the darlings everybody is talking about. But it’s typically one of the wisest choices to make long-term.
If not big tech stocks, then what? Like tech stocks that keep going up (and feel like they will never go down again), the current trends won’t continue to rise. For that reason, we want to be thinking about the next 10 years, not just about today’s trends. Our guest on this episode, Adam Johnson makes it his stock and trade to find the places to put his money that will accomplish growth long term.
Currently, Adam’s investing in Biotech, Medtech, and Energy — and he has NO money in the big tech companies. What’s his result been? Admittedly, when COVID first hit, his portfolio was down 30% almost immediately, but it’s recovered completely and appears to be growing even more.
Adam also believes that because the demand for oil hasn’t disappeared, coupled with the fact that it takes a very long time to jump-start oil production, we’re set for a recovery in the oil sector. He believes the equilibrium (where oil companies can both make money and can afford to invest in new wells) is somewhere in the $50 per barrel range, so there’s still plenty of room for growth if he’s right. Listen to hear Adam’s insights and to rethink your investing strategy.
Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
- The Jesse Livermore book mentioned by Ryan
- Adam Johnson, founder of Bullseye Brief (get your 45 day trial)
- Cheniere Energy - one of Adam’s current favorites
- Energy Transfer - another of Adam’s current favorites
- RobinHood Trading Platform
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris * http://PayneCM.com * Follow on Twitter * Follow on Facebook * Follow on LinkedIn * Subscribe on YouTube * Follow on Instagram
Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify
The stock market continues to rise in spite of the dire predictions we’re hearing from analysts and pundits. What’s that all about? As you might expect, we’ve got some ideas about what is going on and you may be surprised to hear that we tend to think the market is right and the pundits are wrong.
Listen to hear why we think so and what we believe is going to happen with Big Tech companies. And... in our “Tipping Point” segment we address one of the biggest issues we see coming through our planning practice: Retirement Planning and the MYTHS that fuel mistakes. Don’t miss it!
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... THE NEWS IN PLAIN SITE:
- The disconnect between the market and the economy [0:33]
- The big tech bubble and why it can’t last [5:47]
THE TIPPING POINT:
- Five questions you must answer when building your financial plan [8:57]
- Taxes are a huge issue to consider as well [14:29]
THE HIDDEN FACTS OF FINANCE
- The five largest companies in the index make up 23% of the entire index [18:10]
- Is buy and hold stock investing dead? [19:08]
- Is gold and silver overpriced? [20:29]
As the market continues to skyrocket, many pundits are scratching their heads As Chris points out, sometimes it feels like there would be no news if there wasn’t bad news. But that statement is NOT taking into account this fact, which is not being talked about: 84% of companies have beat analyst expectations by 22%. That’s the story of this market - everyone has been negative about the economic outlook and meanwhile the market continues to prove them dead wrong. One example from this episode:
A double-dip recovery pattern was predicted. It hasn’t happened. Instead, we’ve experienced a a “V-shaped” recovery of consistent growth. How can Wall Street get it so wrong? There are many reasons for such misguided notions, and it’s what we address on this episode.
Is the market missing something? Nope. It’s investors who are missing out We keep hearing that the market is missing something, but it’s not. The market is doing what the market is supposed to do. It’s looking toward the future and has been very accurate so far. It’s Investors who are missing out on great opportunities provided by the current market.
Why? Because they are worried. This whole COVID thing has everybody concerned that the market is unstable and that investing is risky right now. Pile on top of that an upcoming election and you can understand why Investors are leary. But here’s the thing, worry isn’t a good strategy. Holding onto your cash isn’t either. There are many places to put your money that will include income with growth — and I’m not talking about big tech companies.
Join us for this episode. You’ll hear our opinions about how to take advantage of the market conditions we’re experiencing right now.
The 80% retirement income myth is hurting lots of people You’ve likely heard it said that you can plan on needing about 80% of what you currently spend each month to support your retirement years. From years of running a financial planning firm we can tell you that is simply not true. When you have more time on your hands, which you do during retirement, you tend to spend more money. The fact is that you’re going to need MORE money to live on during retirement, not less.
Let’s look at a handful of the reasons we can say that so confidently.
- The average life expectancy is going up - that means you may have more years to fund with your retirement savings
- Health care costs are going up and retirees tend to spend more on healthcare
- And there’s the reality of taxes. You can count on about 30% of your portfolio going to taxes in the end. OUCH!
- The cost of living will double every 20 years, so that’s a problem when you base what you need in the future on what you’re making now.
So the question you need to answer is this: “Where is that amount of income going to come from?” Said another way, “How do you make decisions about what goes into and what goes out of your portfolio?” Listen to hear how we suggest you figure out how you’re going to fill the income gap.
Resources & People Mentioned See if you qualify for a complimentary financial review from the Paynes
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris * http://PayneCM.com * Follow on Twitter * Follow on Facebook * Follow on LinkedIn * Subscribe on YouTube * Follow on Instagram
Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify
Wow! The economy is doing some crazy things here as we hopefully wrap up this thing we’re all calling COVID. We’ve got big tech stocks like Amazon and Facebook continuing to rise in value, with no shortage of people still wanting to buy them. At the same time, the dollar is falling, which presents interesting opportunities of a different sort.
This episode of Payne Points of Wealth features our thoughts as fiduciary advisors — from a three-generation perspective — about these issues and more. We’ve got a variety of perspectives for you to consider, so be sure you take the time to listen.
You will want to hear this episode if you are interested in... * The current growth of big tech [0:33] * How creative destruction might change the game [3:20] * Opportunities related to the weakening U.S. Dollar [7:05] * How to get the best advice from your financial advisor (and how to choose one) [8:30] * The hidden facts of finance going on behind the scene [14:26]
Big tech: Wow… are you comfortable with prices at these levels? Bob says he’s getting a nose bleed from the heights the big tech stocks are reaching… and it makes sense on one level. Even 70 to 80-year-olds who have never bought anything online are now buying everything online because of COVID. As a result, you guessed it, the big tech companies behind those purchases are making bank and their stocks continue to rise.
But can it go on forever? Facebook already has 40% of the world’s population using its products (Facebook, Instagram, Whatsapp), so how much more upward room is there? While Bob thinks that leaves 60% of the world as a market for them to go after, Ryan isn’t so sure that’s how to look at it. How about you? Are you buying tech stocks right now? If so, what happened to the old maxim, “Buy low, sell high?” Take the time to listen to this episode and you might find a new perspective to inform your investment decisions.
Tech stocks are doing great. But should you buy them? One of the things we’ve seen happen as a result of the “stay at home” orders that have been enforced worldwide is the growth of minor tech companies that are taking on the tech giants. TikTok is a great example. This “creative destruction” taking place is going to present all kinds of opportunities for investors that are unrelated to the typical big-name tech companies.
But be careful. What’s trendy and popular isn’t always the best bet long term. You need the right data to make the right investing decisions because your goal should not be to buy what’s popular right now, your goal is to buy what’s going to be popular tomorrow. That requires insight that you may not have. Listen to our conversation to hear how we’d advise that you approach the issue, and learn how you can get your own complimentary financial review from Payne Capital Management.
Who should you choose to help you make investment decisions? One of the most frequent questions we get here at Payne Capital Management has to do with choosing an investment advisor. How do you make the choice wisely? There are lots of titles and terms out there financial professionals use to describe themselves — wealth managers, advisors, Certified Financial Analysts, fiduciaries — how do you know which is the best fit for you?
Let’s start with where you’re at right now. Who is advising you about your investment decisions today? Is it someone you can trust to have your best interests in mind or someone who’s just out to make a buck off of you? Don’t misunderstand, there’s nothing wrong with financial advisors being paid for what they do, but you need to be careful about who you choose to guide your financial decisions. During the second segment of the show today, listen to our discussion about the different types of advisors and how to go about choosing the right one. Do you need an architect or a builder? The answer might surprise you.
Resources & People Mentioned * Get your complementary financial review from the Paynes - www.PayneCM.com/FinancialPlan
- Robin Hood Online Trading
- AAII Investor Sentiment Survey
- Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway
Connect With Ryan, Bob, and Chris * http://PayneCM.com * Follow on Twitter * Follow on Facebook * Follow on LinkedIn * Subscribe on YouTube * Follow on Instagram
Subscribe to Payne Points of Wealth On Apple Podcasts, On Google Podcasts, On Spotify