Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez: Recent Episodes
Bilal Hafeez
Eric Beinhocker is a professor at the University of Oxford's Blavatnik School of Government and the founder and executive director of the Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School (INET Oxford), a research center dedicated to applying innovative economics to major societal challenges. He is also Chairman of the Science Board at the Santa Fe Institute. Prior to his academic career, Beinhocker spent three decades as a technology entrepreneur, venture capitalist, and consultant to Fortune 500 companies. He is the author of The Origin of Wealth: The Radical Remaking of Economics and What It Means for Business and Society.
- The Collapse of Neoliberalism
- The "Market Humanism" Synthesis
- From Homoeconomicus to Homo Sapiens
- Markets as Evolutionary Engines
- Value as Problem-Solving
- The Structural Reality of Inequality
- "Middle-Out" vs. "Trickle-Down" Growth
- The State as a Market Shaper
- Macrocosm: Modelling the Economy with AI
- Human Skills in the Age of AI
Marvin Barth is the creator of Thematic Markets and Seriously, Marvin?!. Thematic Markets is rigorous, institutional-quality research aimed at market professionals, while Seriously, Marvin?! presents more accessible takes on contrarian musings Marvin doesn't have time to research at Thematic Markets. Both publications benefit from the uniquely broad perspective on the global political economy Marvin has gained from a three-decade career spanning nearly every asset class, academia, central banking, finance ministry, and international institutions. This includes working at Barclays Investment Bank, Citi, the Federal Reserve Board, the U.S. Treasury Department, and the Bank for International Settlements.
- The Localisation Thesis
- Manufacturing vs. The AI "Bubble"
- The Labour Disconnect (Poetry vs. Welding)
- Trump 2.0: Preparedness and Instincts
- The Iran War and American Exceptionalism
- The Fed's "Neutral Rate" Error
- The Rise of Kevin Warsh
- The Brexit Reality Check
- Andy Burnham: The "Low Delta Call Option"
Dr Clarida is a managing director and global economic advisor at PIMCO. Prior to rejoining PIMCO in 2022, he was the firm's global strategic advisor from 2006 to 2018. He served as Vice Chairman of the Board of Governors of the U.S. Federal Reserve System from September 2018 to January 2022. Richard is also Professor of Economics and International Affairs at Columbia University. Before joining PIMCO in 2006, he was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy, in which he served as chief economic advisor to two U.S. Treasury Secretaries. Earlier in his career, he was with Credit Suisse and Grossman Asset Management. He has 26 years of investment experience and holds a PhD and a master's degree in economics from Harvard University. He received an undergraduate degree with Bronze Tablet Honors from the University of Illinois. In this podcast, we discuss:
- Clarida's Macro Origin Story
- Global Economic Resilience
- The AI Capex Boom
- Labour's Declining Income Share
- The "Warsh Fed" Doctrine
- Revisiting Forward Guidance
- AI's Impact on Productivity and R-star
- The Era of Global Fragmentation
- Optimism for the Next Generation
You can follow Richard on LinkedIn as well as the PIMCO website.
Brendan Greeley has spent twenty years as a journalist, covering economic and monetary policy. He was the US economics editor at the Financial Times and continues to write a regular column there. Before that, he was a staff writer for Bloomberg Businessweek and The Economist, as well as an anchor and correspondent for Bloomberg TV. He has also written for The New York Times, The New York Times Magazine, and The Wall Street Journal Europe, and received a New York Press Club Award for special event reporting. Brendan graduated from Tulane University with honours in German. He is currently completing a PhD in financial history at Princeton University. In this podcast, we discuss:
- The "Ancient Dollar's" Bohemian Roots
- Skepticism of Monetary Sovereignty
- The Constitutional Shift to Private Banking
- Nationalising Money via the Civil War
- The Primacy of Federal Deposit Insurance
- Endogenous Money: How Banks Create the Dollar
- The Rise of the Offshore Eurodollar Market
- Stablecoins as "Schmanks" (Unregulated Banks)
- Career Longevity and the "Turn-Taking" Marriage
Matsuoka-San is the Chief Economist of SBI Securities in Japan. Before that, he was the Chief Economist for Japan at Deutsche Bank. Overall, he has been involved in macroeconomic analysis at research institutions and financial institutions for the past 30 years. He is known to be one of the leading Japan economists with unique insights on structural issues. Over the years, he has been highly ranked in numerous surveys, including the Institutional Investor survey. In this podcast, we discuss:
- The "Inconvenient Mix" of Inflation
- Japan's Real Neutral Interest Rate
- The Case for Nominal GDP Targeting
- Consumption Tax: Regressive Relief?
- Wage Growth Divergence
- The Working Hours Trap
- Fiscal Dominance and Vulnerability
- The Enigma of Yen Weakness
- Work-from-Home and Birth Rates
- Erosion of the US Dollar's Premium
- The AI/Semiconductor "Vertical Jump"
- US vs. Japan: Labour Participation Trends
Stefan Jansen is the founder and CEO of Applied AI. He advises Fortune 500 companies, investment firms, and startups across industries on data & AI strategy, building data science teams, and developing end-to-end machine learning solutions.
Before his current venture, he was a partner and managing director at an international investment firm, where he built the predictive analytics and investment research practice. He was also a senior executive at a global fintech company with operations in 15 markets, advised Central Banks in emerging markets, and consulted for the World Bank. In this podcast, we discuss:
- Defining AI as a Moving Target
- The Trading vs. Business Data Science Divide
- Synthetic Data and the "Fat Tail" Challenge
- Shapley Values: Turning Black Boxes Grey
- Agentic AI and Unstructured Data
- RAG, Provenance, and the Context Window Debate
- The "Alpha Factory" Workflow
- Reinforcement Learning (RL) for Execution, Not Prediction
- The Critical Role of Human Context
- Advice for the AI-Native Job Market
William W. Beach is the Senior Fellow in Economics at the Economic Policy Innovation Center (EPIC) and the Coffin Fellow at the Calvin Coolidge Presidential Foundation. Beach also serves on the UKG Workforce Institute Advisory Board.
Prior to these appointments, Beach was the fifteenth Commissioner of Labor Statistics at the Bureau of Labor Statistics in Washington, DC. He took up his duties there on March 28, 2019. Prior to joining BLS, Dr. Beach was vice president for policy research at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University from February of 2016 to March of 2019; and, prior to that served as the Chief Economist for the Senate Budget Committee, Republican Staff, from 2013 through early 2016. In this podcast, we will discuss:
- The "Fiscal Precipice"
- The "Crowd Out" Effect
- Social Drivers of Debt
- The "Undemocratic" Tax System
- The Social Security Countdown
- The Future of "Enhanced Labour"
- The Data Response Crisis
- Modernising Federal Statistics
Martin Wolf is the chief economics commentator at the Financial Times in London. He was awarded the CBE (Commander of the British Empire) in 2000 'for services to financial journalism'. In this podcast, we discuss:
- AI: The Ultimate General-Purpose Technology
- Market Complacency in the Middle East
- Jay Powell's "Superb" but Flawed Legacy
- The "Perverse" Risks of Kevin Warsh
- The UK's Productivity Puzzle and Brexit
- From "Democratic Recession" to Depression
- The "Graduate Trap" and Disaffected Youth
- Advice for the Next Generation
Daniel Rasmussen is the founder and managing partner of Verdad Advisers, an investment firm with over $1 billion in assets under management across multiple asset classes. He is the author of The Humble Investor (2025) and American Uprising (2011). Prior to founding Verdad, he worked at Bain Capital Private Equity and Bridgewater Associates. In this podcast, we discuss:
- Investing as Meta-analysis
- The Evolution of Private Equity
- Stranded Software Assets
- The Private Credit Mirage
- The "Adjusted EBITDA" Trap
- Small-Cap Growth Dangers
- The AI Capex Cycle
- AI Productivity Mindset
Neil Dutta is Head of Economic Research at Renaissance Macro Research (renMac). He leads their macroeconomic research efforts, with an emphasis on analysing the US economy, the Federal Reserve, global trends, and cross-market investment themes. He is considered a market economist, looking at the economic data and trying to highlight the risks to the consensus as he sees them.
Prior to RenMac, Neil spent seven years at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch. There, he was a Senior Economist covering both the United States and Canada. In this podcast, we discuss:
- Neil's Wall Street "Origin Story"
- The Four Pillars of Economic Analysis
- The Real Income Squeeze
- AI, RSUs, and State Tax Revenues
- Pervasive Optimism and Reflexivity Risk
- The Fed's "Path of Least Resistance"
- The Warsh Nomination and Forward Guidance
- Productivity Boom or Demand Story?
- AI's Wealth Effect Beyond Accounting
- The 2027 Fiscal Headwind
- Substack vs. Institutional Research
Dr. Dirk Willer is a Managing Director and Global Head of Macro and Asset Allocation at Citi Research in New York. Prior to this role, Dirk headed global Emerging Market Strategy, where he and his teams were consistently ranked in the top three in the institutional investor surveys. Previously, Dirk worked at Omega Advisors and RHG Capital as a global macro strategist and portfolio manager, and at Swiss Bank as a fixed income strategist for Russia and Eastern Europe. Dirk holds a PhD and MSc in Economics from the London School of Economics. Dirk is also the author of an influential book on how to trade emerging market fixed income, published by Wiley in 2020, and of a book on global macro trading, released in 2026. In this podcast, we discuss:
- Unlearning the QE Reflex
- Trading "Close to the Fire"
- The Nearest Neighbour Regime Framework
- PMIs vs. "Noisy" Indicators
- Yield Curve Inversions and Fed Lags
- The "GMO" Bubble Methodology
- Credit as the Equity Canary
- The Four-Indicator Dollar Model
- Fading Geopolitical Shocks
- The Role of Human Judgment in AI
Dylan is the founder of arcMacro, where he analyses macro and private markets. His previous roles include serving as an economist at Goldman Sachs and Rosenberg Research, and later as a private market consultant at McKinsey. In this podcast, we discuss:
- The Hormuz Supply Shock
- Stagflation as the New Base Case
- AI Capex vs. Energy Headwinds
- A Hawkish Fed Outlook
- Canada's Productivity Pivot
- The USMCA Trade Cloud
- Private Market Maturation
- Normalising Credit Defaults
- AI's Private Market Future
Shawn Edwards is Bloomberg's Chief Technology Officer. Based in New York, he oversees the development of Bloomberg's global technology strategy. In 2017, Shawn was named in the top ten of the Institutional Investor Tech 40 – an annual ranking of financial industry technology leaders. Prior to joining Bloomberg in 2003, Shawn worked for Bear Stearns & Co., where he was a managing director in the company's fixed income trading group. He has also held positions at Mentor Graphics and IBM. In this podcast, we discuss:
- Engineering Trust through "Entailment"
- Automating "The Bloomberg Way"
- ASKB: Reimagining the Terminal
- Workflow-Specific AI Expansion
- Actionable Alternative Data
- Empowering Non-Programmers
- Accelerating Data Onboarding
- Competition vs. Domain Knowledge
- A Cautious View on AGI
Andrew Perry is the creator of Macro Pillars, a macro research product servicing a bespoke selection of global banks, hedge funds, and sophisticated investors. He has over 35+ years of experience in markets, including as a Portfolio Manager at Tudor Investment Corporation under Paul Tudor Jones, and later as a Managing Director and Portfolio Manager at Nomura. In this podcast, we discuss:
- The Five Pillars of Global Macro
- The Move Index: The Ultimate Indicator
- Non-Traditional Liquidity and Market Plumbing
- Australia's "Lucky Country" Crisis
- From Supply Shock to Demand Shock
- The Significance of "Critical Dates"
- Risk Management and Emotional Resilience
- US Equity Outperformance and Policy Makers
Tina Fordham is a Geostrategist, Author and Advisor to board and C-Suite leaders on a mission to transform how leaders navigate the changing global environment. Her signature theses on the Geopolitics Supercycle, PQ (Political Quotient) and Vox Populi Risk have entered the popular lexicon, while the tools developed by Fordham Global Foresight have demonstrated how geopolitics can be integrated into business strategy.
Fordham was Wall Street's original Chief Global Political Analyst, spending 17 years at Citigroup. She created Eurasia Group's financial markets research business; was appointed to the United Nations' first HighLevel Panel on Women's Economic Empowerment; and has served as a Senior Advisor to the U.K. Prime Minister and 2-and 3-star Generals.
Tina is a member of the International Advisory Boards of Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs, her alma mater, and Cambridge University's Centre for Geopolitics. She hosts "The Navigator", produced in collaboration with the London Stock Exchange, and is a frequent guest on CNN, CNBC and Bloomberg.
Her forthcoming book, Mad World: A Geostrategy Survival Guide for Business Leaders, will be published in July 2026 by Whitefox. In this podcast, we discuss:
- The Geopolitics Super Cycle
- The 1973-Scale Oil Shock
- Europe's "Barely Controlled Panic"
- The 2026 Greenland Maneuver
- Venezuela and the Iran "Jujitsu" Move
- China's "Silent" Advantage
- The Rise of Middle Powers
- Raising Your "PQ" (Political Quotient)
You can follow Tina's work on X, LinkedIn, and the Fordham Global Foresight website. You can also contact Tina here,
Phil is the founder of Suttle Economics – a leading research consultancy. Before that, he held senior roles at Tudor, the Institute of International Finance (IIF), JP Morgan, Barclays, the New York Fed and World Bank. He was educated at Oxford University and lives in the US. In the podcast, we talk about:
- The Oil Price Shock and "Negative Supply Curve" Impact
- US Economic Stagnation and Population Seismic Shift
- AI as a Short-Term Inflationary Impulse
- The Fed's Potential Hawkish Pivot
- European and Japanese Central Bank Outlooks
- China's Resilience and the "Thucydides Trap"
- Market Rotations and the "Safe Asset" Shift
- US Midterms and Trade Tensions
Nader is Argus' Middle East editor, based in Dubai. Argus is a leading independent provider of global energy and commodity market intelligence. Nader has more than 15 years of experience covering oil and gas in the region, and today heads up the company's Middle East and OPEC coverage. Prior to moving to Argus in 2015, Nader spent five years with the Middle East Economic Survey (MEES) weekly in Cyprus. In this podcast, we discuss:
- Fragmented GCC Stances
- Iran's Hormuz "Stranglehold"
- The "Zero Enrichment" Stalemate
- The Hormuz Transit Toll
- US Naval Blockade Tactics
- Downstream Infrastructure Damage
- Returning Shut-in Production
- Bypassing the Strait
Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank. In this podcast, we discuss:
- The Billion-Barrel Supply Gap
- Physical Insurance and Pipelines
- The "Toll Booth" Strait
- Sanctions as a Safety Valve
- Wealth vs. Shortages
- China's Strategic Resilience
- The "Unilateral Taco" Scenario
- Long-Term Energy Optionality
Richard Schimel is the Co-Founder and Co-CIO of Cinctive Capital Management – a leading multi-strategy alternative asset manager. Rich has over 30 years of experience in the investment management industry. Prior to Cinctive, Rich was Head of Aptigon Capital, a division of Citadel, where he served on the firm's Portfolio Committee. Before that, Rich founded and served as the CIO of Sterling Ridge Capital. Earlier in his career, Rich co-founded Diamondback Capital, where he co-managed the firm as well as portions of the firm's overall investment strategy. Before Diamondback, Rich began his buy-side career at SAC Capital, where he was a portfolio manager. In this podcast, we will discuss:
- The "Sweet Spot" for Alpha
- Silos vs. Collaborative Culture
- Protecting the Left Tail
- AI Beyond Tech: The Power Theme
- The Pendulum Swing to Hedge Funds
- Middle East: The New Financial Hub
- The "Pattern Recognition" of Talent
- Fed and Sector Outlook
Dr. Tyler Goodspeed chaired the White House Council of Economic Advisers from 202-21. During his tenure on the council, he also chaired the Economic Policy Committee at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
From 2021 through 2023, Tyler was a Director and Chief Economist at Greenmantle, a New York and London-based macroeconomic and geopolitical consulting firm. The author of four books on economic history, Tyler holds a PhD in economics from Cambridge University and a PhD in history from Harvard University,
He is currently a Senior Fellow at the Adam Smith Institute in London and a member of the Geoeconomic Council of Advisers at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
All views are his own and not any of the organisations he is affiliated with.
In this podcast, we discuss:
- The "Boom-Bust" Myth
- Recessions as "Apophonies"
- Expansions Do Not Die of Old Age
- Policy Hubris
- The 1785 Structural Break
- Supply Shocks as Choke Points
- Misnaming the 2001 Recession
- The 2008 Energy and Mortgage Intersection
- Impairment of Creative Destruction
- Fidelity to Long-Run Trends
Tomasz Nadrowski is a portfolio manager at the Amvest Terraden Critical Minerals Fund. He was a former Director at the World Economic Forum and Vice President of Business Development at AngloGold Ashanti, then the world's largest gold producer. Tomasz has spent over fifteen years managing commodity and mining equity portfolios for hedge funds and family offices across the U.S., Europe, and Asia.
He is fluent in seven languages and a regular contributor to Oxford Analytica. He combines deep industry knowledge with a strategic understanding of how resources, markets, and power intersect in today's shifting geopolitical landscape. He is also the host of the podcast Tyranny Today. In this podcast, we discuss:
- Geopolitics vs. the Commodity Cycle
- China's VAT Rebate and Value-Added Strategy
- Critical Choke Points: Rare Earths, Graphite, and Gallium
- Regulatory Roadblocks and the Stigma of "Dirty" Mining
- The Abdication of Western Capital Markets
- Human Capital Gaps and the "Octogenarian Engineer" Problem
- Geoeconomic Pricing: Disincentivising New Capacity
- From "Just-in-Time" to "Just-in-Case" Production
- Japan's "House of Brick" Model for Resilience
- The Mineral War and the "Soul" of AI
- A Shift Toward Oligopolistic Competition
Nader is Argus' Middle East editor, based in Dubai. Argus is a leading independent provider of global energy and commodity market intelligence. Nader has more than 15 years of experience covering oil and gas in the region, and today heads up the company's Middle East and OPEC coverage. Prior to moving to Argus in 2015, Nader spent five years with the Middle East Economic Survey (MEES) weekly in Cyprus. In this podcast, we discuss:
- Inevitable Escalation with Iran
- Iran's Decentralised Resilience
- The Rise of Mojtaba
- Regional Retaliation Strategy
- The Hormuz Choke Point
- Modern Tanker War Risks
- 8 Million Barrels Offline
- Limits of the Global SPR
- Sentiment-Driven Volatility
- Houthi Autonomy and the Red Sea
Alex has 20 years of experience at the intersection of finance and data. He has been a global macro investor at firms like Bridgewater Associates and a proprietary volatility trader at Lehman Brothers. Prior to his career as a data-driven speculator, Alex received an MBA from Stanford Business School, an MPhil in Economics (Game Theory) from the University of Oxford, and a BA (Hons) in Economics from McGill University. In this podcast, we discuss:
- Fantasy Baseball to Prop Trading
- Diversification as the "Free Lunch"
- Gold vs. The Chinese Credit Bubble
- Silver as the "Money that Generates Electricity"
- The "Long API, Short Slides" Thesis
- China's Sceptical Data
- Copper vs. Iron Divergence
- The Future of Systematic Investing
Raphaël Gallardo is Chief Economist within the Cross-Asset team at Carmignac. Carmignac is a leading European investment management boutique established in 1989, with over EUR 40 bn in assets under management. Raphaël joined them in 2018. He started his career in 1997 at BNP Paribas, where he spent ten years as a Quantitative Analyst within the Risk Department, a Country-risk Economist, a Financial Engineer specialising in interest rate risk, and ultimately a cross-asset strategist. In 2007, he joined Axa IM as Head of Macroeconomic Research and moved to Rothschild & Cie Gestion in 2012 to occupy the same position. From 2013 to 2018, he was Cross-Asset Strategist at Ostrum Asset Management. Raphaël holds an Engineering Degree from École Nationale Supérieure des Mines de Paris. In this podcast, we discuss:
- Austrian Economics Framework
- Three "Wobbling" Bubbles
- The "Sad" AI Bubble
- Trump Risk Parity Portfolio
- Spain's "Virtuous Circle"
- France's Fiscal Existential Risk
- Japan's Vicious Circle
- China's Dual Economy
- Death of the Risk-Free Asset
- 2026–2027 Outlook
Alex Gurevich is the founder of HonTe Investments. After earning a PhD in mathematics from the University of Chicago, he leveraged his passion for strategic gaming into a lucrative Wall Street career. He has been hailed by The Wall Street Journal as the star trader of J.P. Morgan, where he served as Managing Director in charge of global macro trading and, in 2020, was leading HonTe's macro strategy when he ranked second by net return according to BarclayHedge. Alex is the bestselling author of The Next Perfect Trade and The Trades of March 2020. In this podcast, we discuss:
- The 10-Year "Test of Time" Retrospective
- The "Swim with the Tide" Framework
- Rethinking "Tight Stops" in Risk Management
- Strategies to Overcome Portfolio Paralysis
- Betting on the "Necessary" vs. "Sufficient"
- Japan's Search for the "Perfect Trade"
- The Case for the Fed Returning to 0%
- AI-Driven Technological Displacement
- Energy as the "Bottleneck" for AI Growth
- Evolving Views on Option Usage
Marc Elovitz is Global Head of Investment Management Regulatory at McDermott Will & Schulte – a leading global law firm. Marc advises private fund managers on running their businesses consistent with all relevant laws, regulations and legal requirements. Marc's cutting-edge work also covers the latest trends of interest to private funds, including blockchain technology and digital assets. He advises on the legal and regulatory considerations involving virtual and digital currency business initiatives and the blockchain technology behind them. In this podcast, we discuss:
- From Litigation to Regulation
- The Private Market Boom
- "Project Crypto" and Regulatory Harmonisation
- Beyond Digital Gold
- The Yield Obstacle in Stablecoins
- Future-Proofing Digital Assets
- The Trust Factor in Private Equity
- Solving the AI Explainability Crisis
- The Delaware Governance Battle
- Perspective through Fiction
Sean McGould – the founder/CEO of the Lighthouse Group – an approximately $17 billion investment management firm. Prior to Lighthouse, Sean was the Director of the Outside Trader Investment Program for Trout Trading Management Company. Before joining Trout, he worked for Price Waterhouse in auditing and corporate finance. In this podcast we discuss:
- The Multi-Strategy Investment Approach
- The Selective "War for Talent"
- Adapting to Trump 2.0 Volatility
- Targeting Real Returns vs Gold
- AI: A Digital Tool, Not a Total Bubble
- Redefining Value in the Digital Age
- Japan's Shareholder Value Pivot
- Centralised Planning Risks in China
- Patience in Tight Credit Markets
- The 2026 Macro Outlook
You can get more information on Sean's firm here
The commentary contained in the above article/podcast does not constitute an offer or a solicitation, or a recommendation to implement or liquidate an investment or to carry out any other transaction. It should not be used as a basis for any investment decision or other decision. Any investment decision should be based on appropriate professional advice specific to your needs.
Srividya Jandhyala is a professor of Management at ESSEC Business School in Singapore. Her research focuses on global strategy, geopolitics, and international business. She is the author of the best-selling book 'The Great Disruption: How Geopolitics is Changing Companies, Managers, and Work'. Before ESSEC, she was a Fung Global Fellow at Princeton University. She also served on the faculty of George Washington University in Washington, D.C., and she received her PhD in Management from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. In this podcast, we discuss:
- Geopolitics as a Structural Headwind
- The End of the "Flat World"
- Why Corporate Nationality Trumps Product
- Lessons from Mining and Energy Sectors
- The Jenga Tower of Global Friction
- Sovereign AI and Geopolitical Tech
- China's "Singapore" Playbook
- The Erosion of the Rules-Based Order
- Localization and the "Societal License" to Operate
- The Shift from "Event-Based" Thinking
Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank. In this podcast, we discuss:
- Trump's Bullish Paradox
- Importance of China's SPR
- Why OPEC+ Hiked Production
- The "Oil on Water" Overhang
- Venezuela and Iran
- 2026 Outlook
- US Shale's H2 Roll-over
- Long term demand outlook
Phil is the founder of Suttle Economics – a leading research consultancy. Before that, he held senior roles at Tudor, the Institute of International Finance (IIF), JP Morgan, Barclays, the New York Fed and World Bank. He was educated at Oxford University and lives in the US. In the podcast, we talk about:
- US Labour Market Dissonance
- Trump's "Elizabeth Warren" Populism
- The Productivity Mystery
- Fed Under Pressure
- Sticky Inflation Through 2027
- Global Business Disruptions
- Extreme Oil Volatility
- Japan's Policy Pivot
- China's Sluggish Consumer
- European and UK Growth
- Historical Parallels to Populism
Robert is Founder, Chief Investment Officer and the Managing Partner of the $5bn EM fund, Gramercy. He founded Gramercy in 1998. Robert has 36 years of investment experience dedicated to emerging markets with a specialization in distressed opportunistic credit strategies. He is a member of Gramercy's Management Team and is Co-Chair of the Risk Management Committee. In this podcast we discuss:
- EM in 2025: From Caution to FOMO
- EM vs DM: A Role Reversal Since COVID
- The Problem with EM Labels & Indices
- China: From 'Uninvestable' to Selective Opportunity
- Russia–Ukraine: Asymmetry, Reconstruction, and Market Blind Spots
- The Boom in EM Private Credit
- Where the Opportunities Are in EM Private Credit
- Mexico, NAFTA 2.0, and Geopolitics
- Venezuela and the 'Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine'
- Fed Policy: The Only Conviction Is Lack of Conviction
- Portfolio Philosophy: Fighting FOMO and Overtrading
Jay Pelosky is the founder of TPW Advisory. He has over 35 years of buy-side and sell-side financial market experience. Before going independent, Jay was at Morgan Stanley, where he was ranked #1 by Institutional Investor in Global Equity Strategy and Global Asset Allocation Strategy. In this podcast, we discuss:
- Tripolar World (TPW) - regional integration in Asia, Europe, and Americas.
- Global growth long cycle driven by spending on AI, defense, and climate across regions.
- China-US AI competition
- The shift from chip quality to power costs as the key AI competitive advantage.
- Brazil and Spain's clean energy plays
- Why 2025 is not like the 2000 dotcom bubble
- Private credit opportunities
- Attractive China tech valuations
- China's five-year plan
- Europe's potential
- Countries pressuring institutions to invest domestically rather than in US markets.
Ken Tropin is a legend in the macro space. He is the Chairman and the founder of Graham Capital Management (GCM) - $20bn fund. Ken founded GCM in 1994 and has grown the firm into an industry leading alternative investment manager focusing on global macro discretionary and quantitative hedge fund strategies. Prior to founding GCM, Ken had significant experience in the alternative investment industry, including five years (1989 to 1993) as President and Chief Executive Officer of John W. Henry & Company, Inc. and seven years (1982 to 1989) as Senior Vice President and Director of Managed Futures at Dean Witter Reynolds. In this podcast we discuss:
-
Investment philosophy
-
Differentiation from multi-strat funds
-
Talent recruitment strategy; NY office
-
Fed outlook
-
Term premium as underpriced
-
US deficit concerns and duration risk in long-end rates
-
AI and technology
-
Global central bank divergence
-
Inflation pressures
-
Private credit
-
Dollar view
-
Geopolitical risks
-
Robin Hood Foundation
Sangeet Paul Choudary is the best-selling co-author of Platform Revolution and author of the new book Reshuffle. He has advised leadership teams at over 40 Fortune 500 companies—including Nestlé, ExxonMobil, Daimler, ING, and Booking.com—as well as pre-IPO tech firms. Sangeet currently serves as a Senior Fellow at the University of California, Berkeley, and has spoken at global forums such as the G20 Summit, World50 Summit, and the World Economic Forum.
David Dredge is the Chief Investment Officer of Convex Strategies, which is an agnostic value investor in volatility. David has over 30 years' experience managing risk across global markets. Prior to launching Convex Strategies, David served as a Managing Director and Portfolio Manager at Artradis Fund Management in Singapore, where he was responsible for the fixed income aspects of their volatility strategy. Earlier in his career, David built and ran Asian and Global EM trading businesses for RBS (ABN AMRO Group), Bankers Trust, and Bank of America. He currently sits on the Monetary Authority of Singapore Markets Committee (SFEMC).
Marc Rubinstein is author of Net Interest – a leading weekly newsletter on the world of finance. Before this, Marc spent ten years at leading hedge fund Lansdowne Partners, where he was a partner and portfolio manager. This was after he spent time on the sell-side working for Barclays Investment Bank (BZW), Schroders and then Credit Suisse, where he was head of the European banks research team. In this podcast we discuss:.
-
AI bubble historical analogies
-
1907 crisis and non-bank growth
-
Private credit risks
-
Fraud cycles and market corrections
-
Jane Street's technological edge
-
Exchanges commoditise trading
-
Banks adopt blockchain technology
-
Fintech challenges incumbents
-
AI disrupts entry-level finance jobs
-
Books mentioned: 1929 (Andrew Ross Sorkin), Land Trap (Mike Bird)
Mark Farrington is a Global Macro and Geopolitical Strategist and author of the 'Watchtower Reports,' which cover topics ranging from geopolitical risk to Bank of Japan monetary policy to US dollar dynamics. He previously served as Managing Director and Portfolio Manager of the Macro Currency Group at Principal Global Investors, where he worked for fifteen years. Before that, he spent 17 years in the Asia-Pacific region, primarily with Bankers Trust. In this podcast, we discuss:
- US Embrace of Industrial Policy and Self-Sufficiency
- China's Supply Chain Strategy and Retaliation:
- Barriers to RMB Internationalisation
- China's Strategic Interest in Gold
- Enduring US Dollar Dominance
- Geopolitical Alpha and Experiential Learning
- Convergence of Allies on US Worldview
- Fragility and Vulnerability of Europe
- Financial Crisis Catalysts: Inflation and Volatility
- The Threat of Systemic Volatility
- Books mentioned: Theory of International Politics (Kenneth N. Waltz), The Black Swan (Nassim Nicholas Taleb), The Tipping Point (Malcolm Gladwell), Weaving the Net: Conditional Engagement with China (James Shinn), The Meiji Restoration (W.G. Beasley), The Anarchy: The Relentless Rise of the East India Company (William Dalrymple).
You can follow Mark's work here.
David Samra is a managing director of Artisan Partners – the $180bn global multi-asset investment platform. He is founding partner of the International Value Group, and portfolio manager of the Artisan International Value Fund, which he has managed since the portfolio's inception in September 2002. David has been nominated for the Morningstar International Stock Fund Manager of the Year Award six times. In this podcast, we discuss:
- Economic Value Added (EVA) and what makes a good business versus a bad business
- Principles of value investing
- Finding undervalued securities through screening and cumulative knowledge
- Good versus bad management teams
- The erosion of competitive moats over time, particularly in consumer brands and technology
- Deep dive into Arch Capital as a case study of a successful investment with unique competitive advantages
- Shareholder activism as a tool for protecting investments and influencing management
- Challenges of managing large amounts of capital and finding opportunities in current markets
- AI investment, capital intensity in tech, and concerns about future returns on capital
- Views on private markets
Books mentioned: Quest for Value (Stewart), The Intelligent Investor (Graham), The Money Masters (Train), and Frederick and Frederica (Helprin).
You can follow David's work here.
Miguel Gutiérrez is a Partner and Head of Private Markets, at The Rohatyn Group (TRG) - a global asset manager that specialises in emerging markets and real assets. Prior to joining TRG in October 2004, Miguel served as the Chairman and CEO of the Telefónica Group in Argentina and Chairman of Grupo Concesionario del Oeste S.A. He also served as the non-executive Chairman of YPF S.A. from April 2016 to December 2019. Earlier in his career, Miguel held numerous senior positions at J.P. Morgan, including Head of Global Emerging Markets Sales, Trading, and Research. In this podcast, we discuss:
-
Importance of upcoming Mexico's USMCA negotiations with US
-
US's new approach to Latin America
-
How private markets work in Latin America
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Gordon Hanson is the Peter Wertheim Professor in Urban Policy at Harvard Kennedy School and Academic Dean for Strategy and Engagement at Harvard Kennedy School. He is best known for his research on the labour market consequences of globalisation, including pioneering work on the China trade shock. Hanson's current research addresses the causes and consequences of regional job loss, the effectiveness of place-based policies in alleviating regional economic distress, and how the energy transition will affect local labour markets. This work is part of the Reimagining the Economy project at the Kennedy School, which Hanson co-directs with Dani Rodrik. In this podcast we discuss America's historical obsession with manufacturing from the Industrial Revolution to today, manufacturing job losses and their impact on non-college workers, how traditional economics fails to measure human flourishing beyond consumption, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Paul Cavey is a China-focused Asia economist with twenty-five years of experience covering the region. He runs East Asia Econ. Previously, he was a macro strategist in the global bond team at Wellington Management, head of China economics at Macquarie Securities and chief China economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. In this podcast we discuss US-Chine trade war escalation, state of China's economy and Japanification, PBoC's next move, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Shiloh Bates is a Partner and Chief Investment Officer. Prior to that, he was a Managing Director at Benefit Street Partners. During his 20-year career, Mr. Bates has worked for several CLO managers and has been one of the largest investors in CLO securities. He wrote the book, CLO Investing with a focus on CLO Equity and BB Notes. He is also the host of the CLO Investor Podcast. In this podcast we discuss private credit boom, growth in covenant-lite loans, industry concentration in CLOs, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Diane Coyle is the Bennett Professor of Public Policy at the University of Cambridge. She is the Research Director at the Bennett School of Public Policy. Diane’s latest book is 'The Measure of Progress: Counting What Really Matters’. Her own research focuses on productivity, the digital economy and AI policy, and economic measurement. She has been writing about the effects of digital technologies since her first book, ‘The Weightless World’, in 1997. Diane is currently a member of the UK Government’s Industrial Strategy Council, the New Towns Taskforce, and advises the Competition and Markets Authority. She has served previously in a number of public service roles including as Vice Chair of the BBC Trust, member of the Competition Commission, and of the Natural Capital Committee. Diane was awarded a DBE in 2023 for her contribution to economics and public policy. In this podcast we discuss the inadequacy of GDP measurement, missing the digital economy; dealing with free digital services, how to measure productivity in services, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Ryan Hass is director of the John L. Thornton China Center and the Chen-Fu and Cecilia Yen Koo Chair in Taiwan Studies at Brookings. He is also a senior fellow in the Center for Asia Policy Studies. Ryan focuses his research and analysis on enhancing policy development on the pressing political, economic, and security challenges facing the United States in East Asia. Before Brookings, Ryan served as the director for China, Taiwan and Mongolia at the National Security Council (NSC) staff. Prior to joining the NSC, Ryan served as a Foreign Service Officer in US Embassy Beijing. Ryan is the author of ‘Stronger: Adapting America’s China Strategy in an Age of Competitive Interdependence’. In this podcast we discuss China’s strategic worldview and ‘rightful place’ in world, US-China relations, China playing hardball with Europe, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Jon Turek is the founder and CEO of JST Advisors, a hedge fund advisory service that publishes a weekly research note with global macro trade ideas. JST Advisors works closely with hedge funds on developing asymmetric macro trade ideas and market themes. Outside of JST Advisors, Jon worked as a portfolio manager at Brevan Howard and as an analyst at Moore capital. In this podcast we discuss whether the US labour market normalising or signalling recession, how much will Fed end up easing, impact of AI capex on US growth, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Chris Hughes is an economist and author who now serves as Chair of the Economic Security Project, a leading nonprofit advocating for economic power for all Americans. Chris was a cofounder of Facebook. He is the author of 'Fair Shot: Rethinking Inequality and How We Earn' and 'Marketcrafters'. In this podcast we discuss understanding market crafters that use state power to shape markets, importance of Bretton Woods collapse in late 1960s/1970s, Eurodollar and offshore dollar markets, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Alberto Gallo is Chief Investment Officer and Co-founder at Andromeda Capital Management. Prior to that, Alberto initiated and ran the Global Credit Opportunities fund at Algebris Investments. Previously, he ran macro credit research at RBS in London and served in senior research roles at Goldman Sachs in New York, Bear Stearns in New York and London, and Merrill Lynch in London. In this podcast we discuss the Western debt crisis, monopolisation and rising inequality, demographic problems, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Jonathan Xiong is the founder and CEO/CIO of Arrowpoint Investment Partners, a new Asia-focused hedge fund. Prior to starting Arrowpoint, Jonathan was the Co-CEO of Millennium Management Asia for five years. Before that, he was Head of Fixed Income Alternatives and the lead Portfolio Manager for the GS Global Opportunities Fund at Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM) for seven years. Prior to joining Goldman Sachs, Jonathan was a Managing Director and Senior Portfolio Manager at Mellon Capital Management for 11 years in the Systematic Global Macro team. This podcast covers investment philosophy, alpha, risk premia, quant, multi-manager/pod shops, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Adam Frank is a professor of astrophysics at the University of Rochester. A self-described ‘evangelist of science,’ Adam regularly writes and speaks about subjects like intelligent life forms in the universe, high-energy-density physics, space exploration and missions, climate change and more. In this podcast we discuss public science communication and scientific denialism, intersection of science, art and spirituality, searching for aliens – SETI and the Fermi Paradox, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Antonio Del Favero is a macro strategist at Macro Hive. He focuses mainly on the US economy and G3 rates markets. Formerly, he worked at various macro hedge funds, including Tudor, Maniyar Capital and Brevan Howard. He holds a master’s in finance from the ETH/University of Zurich and a master’s in economics from Bocconi University. In this podcast we discuss the importance of financial conditions, why the US slowed in 2025 H1, impact of US tariffs, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is the Chief US economist and macro strategist for Macro Hive and is based in Los Angeles. Before that, she worked at various hedge funds including Bridgewater. Prior to the buy side, she worked at the New York Fed, IMF, and the World Bank. She holds a PhD in economics from the London School of Economics. This episode covers labour’s declining share of income; economic stagnation, pro-business forces winning against antitrust, less immigration reducing supply and economic demand simultaneously, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Phil is the founder of Suttle Economics – a leading research consultancy. Before that, he held senior roles at Tudor, the Institute of International Finance (IIF), JP Morgan, Barclays, the New York Fed and World Bank. He was educated at Oxford University and lives in the US. In the podcast, we discuss US labour supply problem, state of the US consumer and weaker growth, Fed policy, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Brad Setser is the Whitney Shepardson senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. His expertise includes global trade and capital flows, financial vulnerability analysis, and sovereign debt restructuring. He regularly blogs at Follow the Money. Brad served as a senior advisor to the United States Trade Representative from 2021 to 2022, where he worked on the resolution of several trade disputes. He had previously served as the deputy assistant secretary for international economic analysis in the US Treasury from 2011 to 2015 and as a director for international economics on the staff of the National Economic Council and the National Security Council. This podcast covers US tariffs and their implementation, economic impact: recession or not, disrupting global system or not, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
George Selgin is a senior fellow and director emeritus of the Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives at the Cato Institute and professor emeritus of economics at the University of Georgia. He is the author of numerous books. His latest is ‘False Dawn: The New Deal and the Promise of Recovery, 1933–1947’. In this podcast we discuss re-interpreting the New Deal, parallels between Roosevelt (FDR) and Trump, problem with rapid policy changes, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Dr. Kyle Keane is a Senior Lecturer in Assistive Technologies at the University of Bristol, where he leads research at the intersection of artificial intelligence, human cognition and assistive technology design. With a background in quantum computing and computational physics, he applies the scientific rigor of a physicist to studying human perception and the engineer’s precision to designing technologies that translate complex information into interpretable, multi-sensory experiences. Previously, Kyle was a lecturer and research scientist at MIT. He has also worked for Wolfram|Alpha. In this podcast we discuss early life, turning blind and MIT, complex systems and forecasting, understanding AI capabilities, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Keyu Jin is a global economist and author. She is an academic member of the China Finance 40 Group and has worked with the World Bank, the IMF, and the China Banking Regulatory Commission, and is a non-executive board member of the luxury conglomerate Richemont and Jardine Matheson. Born and raised in Beijing, she attended high school and college in the United States and holds a PhD in economics from Harvard University. In this podcast we discuss coming to the US (from China), beyond ideological labels: China’s unique model, centralisation vs decentralisation and the Mayor Economy, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Marvin Barth is the creator of Thematic Markets and ‘Seriously, Marvin?!’ Thematic Markets is rigorous, institutional-quality research aimed at market professionals, while Seriously, Marvin?! presents more accessible takes on contrarian musings Marvin does not have time to research at Thematic Markets. Both publications benefit from the uniquely broad perspective on the global political economy Marvin has gained from a three-decade career spanning nearly every asset class, academia, central banking, a finance ministry, and international institutions. This includes working at Barclays Investment Bank, Citi, the Federal Reserve Board, the US Treasury Department, and the Bank for International Settlements. In this podcast we discuss working at the Fed and what made Greenspan good, historical context for Trump revolution, core MAGA policies, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Tom Montag is the founding Chief Executive Officer of Rubicon Carbon. Tom has over 20 years of experience in financial markets. Previously, he was the Chief Operating Officer and President of global banking and markets at Bank of America. Tom was also a member of the company’s executive management team, overseeing all businesses serving corporations, institutional investors and government entities. Before this Tom was a partner at Goldman Sachs, a member of the management committee, and was co-head of the Securities Division. In this podcast we discuss the dawn of derivatives at Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and now Rubicon Carbon, assessing the current financial landscape, why focus on climate and carbon, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Deepak Gurnani is the Founder and Managing Partner of Versor Investments. He is the former CIO of Investcorp’s Hedge Fund Group and was one of its founding members in 1996. Deepak was also a member of its Management Committee. He retired from Investcorp in March 2013. Prior to Investcorp, Deepak spent six years with Citicorp. In this podcast we discuss everyone talking about data being important gets it wrong, five steps of applying AI/machine learning in investment management, conventional vs. alternative and unstructured data, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Ralph Sueppel is Managing Director for Research and Trading Strategies at Macrosynergy. Previously, he was an Executive Member and Portfolio Manager at Graham Capital. During his tenure there, he created the Systemic Risk and Systematic Value Project (now Macrosynergy Research), a non-profit project dedicated to educating the broader financial community on the merits of socially responsible macro trading strategies. Before Graham, Ralph was head of quant macro and algorithmic strategies at UBS and worked as Senior Strategist and Portfolio Manager at BlueCrest Capital. Ralph began his career at J.P. Morgan in 1993. In this podcast we discuss the difference between academic and real-world quant, what ‘quantamental’ is, typical quantitative macro strategies vs quantamental stratgies, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Helen Thomas is the CEO of Blonde Money, an independent consultancy firm that analyses and monitors mispriced risks in financial markets in the US, UK and the EU. Helen has a long and distinguished career in both finance and politics. She was an adviser to the former Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne. Previously, Helen has been a partner in the global macro hedge fund, ABD Investment Management, and a former Head of Currency Alpha for State Street Global Advisors. In this podcast we discuss the return of political risk after unusual low interest rate/low volatility world, S&P 500 derivative risks and upcoming correction, Trump’s ‘controlled demolition’ strategy, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Adam Frank is a professor of astrophysics at the University of Rochester. A self-described ‘evangelist of science,’ Adam regularly writes and speaks about subjects like intelligent life forms in the universe, high-energy-density physics, space exploration and missions, climate change and more. In this podcast we discuss public science communication and scientific denialism, intersection of science, art and spirituality, searching for aliens – SETI and the Fermi Paradox, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Tobias Harris is the Founder and Principal of Japan Foresight LLC. He has observed Japan as a political risk analyst at Teneo Intelligence and as a researcher at universities and think tanks. He is also Senior Advisor for Japan at Aurora Macro Strategies. Tobias is the author of ‘The Iconoclast: Shinzō Abe and the New Japan’. In this podcast we discuss how Japan became key US ally since WW2, why Japan shifted its view on its global role since 2000s, Abe Shinzo’s role in transforming Japan’s political system and centralising power, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Michael Sandel teaches political philosophy at Harvard University. His writings – on justice, ethics, democracy, and markets – have been translated into more than 30 languages. His course ‘Justice’ is the first Harvard course to be made freely available online and on television, being viewed by tens of millions worldwide. Michael has served on the President’s Council on Bioethics and is a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. Michael’s books relate enduring themes of political philosophy to the most vexing moral and civic questions of our time. His most recent works are ‘The Tyranny of Merit: Can We Find the Common Good?’ and ‘Democracy’s Discontent: A New Edition for Our Perilous Times’. In this podcast we discuss Sandel’s intellectual journey, post-Cold War disillusionment, critique of meritocracy, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Kenneth Rogoff is Maurits C. Boas Professor at Harvard University, and former chief economist at the IMF. He has long ranked among the top dozen most cited economists and is an international grandmaster of chess. His influential 2009 book with Carmen Reinhart, This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, shows the remarkable quantitative similarities across time and countries in the roots and aftermath of debt and financial crises. Rogoff is also known for his pioneering work on central bank independence, and on exchange rates. He is co-author of the widely used graduate text, Foundations of International Macroeconomics. Ken’s latest book is Our Dollar, Your Problem: An Insider’s View of Seven Turbulent Decades of Global Finance and the Road Ahead. In this podcast we discuss Rogoff’s early life and background as a chess prodigy, Yale, MIT and mentors like Rudy Dornbusch and Stan Fischer, Rogoff’s groundbreaking paper on central bank independence, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
James van Geelen, founder of Citrini Research, which specializes in illuminating and demystifying the transformative 'megatrends' poised to shape societies, economies, and the market’s distribution of returns for years to come. In this podcast we discuss crossovers between emergency medicine and trading, importance of a beginner’s mindset, humility, and learning from others, macro and micro equals one feedback loop, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Zongyuan Zoe Liu is a senior fellow for China studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). Her work focuses on international political economy, global financial markets, sovereign wealth funds, supply chains of critical minerals, development finance, emerging markets, energy and climate change policy, and East Asia-Middle East relations. Dr. Liu is the author of ‘Can BRICS De-dollarize the Global Financial System?’ and ‘Sovereign Funds: How the Communist Party of China Finances its Global Ambitions’. In this podcast we discuss US-China tensions in run-up to Trump 2.0, Xi Jinping’s worldview and generational trauma, the strategic logic behind China’s limited retaliation, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Mirza has a track record of 20 years in the field of researching and trading global foreign exchange. His methodology is built on comprehensive research on underlying fundamentals, rigorous scenario analysis, and a low-frequency, high-conviction approach for idea generation. Mirza has worked at top-tier sell-side firms, including Morgan Stanley, BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank, and Point 72, a multi-strategy hedge fund. Mirza is now based in Canada and works for Desjardins, where he focuses on G7 currency research. In this podcast we discuss why Trump is targeting Canada, understanding Trump’s broader approach, implications of Trump’s Liberation Day policies, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Vania Stavrakeva is an Assistant Professor of Economics at the London Business School and has a PhD from Harvard. She has extensively studied exchange rate determination and how monetary policy, macroeconomics news and beliefs impact exchange rate movements. She has also produced innovative research on the global network of equity holdings and their impact on equity, fixed income and exchange rate markets. This podcast covers new approaches to understand exchange rate drivers, how lagged macro news impacts markets, investor holdings and asset prices, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Andrew Polk is the co-founder and head of economic research at Trivium China, a Beijing-based strategic advisory firm. Before founding Trivium, he was China director at Medley Global Advisors. Previously, he was the resident China economist at The Conference Board’s China Center for Economics and Business. Andrew is the co-author of The Long, Soft Fall in Chinese Growth (The Conference Board, 2015) and maintains a deep network of professional contacts in the official, academic, and business communities in China (built over a decade of living in China and working on China issues). This podcast covers China’s unique development model, Xi Jinping’s economic philosophy, transitioning from property-driven growth to new industries, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Gary Gerstle is the Paul Mellon Professor of American History Emeritus and Paul Mellon Director of Research at the University of Cambridge. He is the author and editor of more than ten books, including two prize winners, American Crucible: Race and Nation in the Twentieth Century (2017) and Liberty and Coercion: The Paradox of American Government from the Founding to the Present (2015). His most recent book, The Rise and Fall of the Neoliberal Order: America and the World in the Free Market Era (2022), was chosen as a Best Book of 2022 by the Financial Times and Prospect Magazine. He has also testified before the US Congress on immigration matters. This podcast was recorded before a live audience at the University of Cambridge. It covered differences between Trump 2.0 and Trump 1.0, unitary executive and the increasing concentration of power in the presidency, public displeasure with the government, inefficient federal government, and DOGE, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Thanos is the Founder and CIO of ABP Invest, which he founded in 2015. He began his career as an Economist for the UK Government Economic Service through the Civil Service Fast Stream during the ERM Crisis of 1992. Thanos then embarked on a 20-year asset management career with CSFB Investment Management (Credit Suisse) and Investec Asset Management (Ninety-One) managing assets across fixed income, emerging markets, multi-asset and currency management. In this podcast, we discuss Russia-Ukraine and Trump vs EU, whether Europe can step up, US vs China, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Randy Schwimmer is Vice Chairman of Churchill, where he oversees the Investor Solutions Group. Previously, he served as Co-Head of Senior Lending, responsible for senior lending origination and capital markets. Randy also serves on the firm’s Executive Committee and Senior Lending Investment Committee. Randy is also the Founder and Publisher of The Lead Left, Churchill’s weekly newsletter reviewing deals and trends in the capital markets. He also produces Private Capital Call, a monthly podcast. Prior to Churchill, Randy held senior roles at BNP Paribas and JP Morgan Chase. In this podcast, we discuss how macro is affecting private credit, what companies make good private credit candidates, deal activity, M&A and LBOs, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Joe Lavorgna is a Managing Director and Chief Economist for SMBC Nikko Securities. He was previously the Chief Economist for the Americas at Natixis. While there, Joe took a one-year leave of absence to serve in the Trump administration, where he was Special Assistant to the President, and Chief Economist of the National Economic Council. Prior to Natixis, Joe spent 20 years with Deutsche Bank Securities in the Global Markets Division, where he was considered one of the leading Wall Street economists. Joe is also a Senior Fellow at the America First Policy Institute, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank. In this podcast, we discuss what it was like working for Trump, why Trump is now more effective, thoughts on tariffs, taxes and immigration, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Max Stier is President and CEO of the Partnership for Public Service. The Partnership has been widely praised as a thought leader on federal government management issues. Max has worked previously in all three branches of the federal government. Most recently, Max worked at the Department of Housing and Urban Development, having served as the Deputy General Counsel for Litigation. In this podcast, we discuss how Presidential transitions typically work, problems with Federal government, why tearing down government will not work, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Chris Johnson spent nearly two decades at the CIA focusing on China and Asia. Today, Chris is the President and CEO of China Strategies Group. He also serves as a Senior Fellow on Chinese Politics at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis and is a senior fellow in the office of the president at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the preeminent foreign and security policy think tank in Washington, DC. In this podcast, we discuss working at the CIA, what type of leader is Chinese President Xi Jinping, how US policy towards China has evolved since Obama, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Jonny Matthews is a senior portfolio manager at Fortem Capital and creator of SuperMacro, an institutional-level macroeconomic research platform. Before that, he spent 12 years as a partner at Brevan Howard, where he managed a $500 million investment portfolio. Earlier in his career, Johny spent 11 years at Citigroup, leading a team in equity derivatives trading following the acquisition of Salomon Brothers, where he began his career. His expertise spans fixed income, equities, FX, credit, and derivatives strategies, including relative value and volatility arbitrage trading. This podcast covers lessons learned during his time at Saloman Brothers and Brevan Howard, experience of trading before the GFC, thoughts on the US economy – growth, inflation and tariffs, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Barry Eichengreen, Professor of Economics and Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley, is a former senior policy adviser at the International Monetary Fund. He is the author of many books, including ‘In Defense of Public Debt’ (Oxford University Press, 2021). In this podcast, we discuss the inflation regime, which central banks are most independent, whether Trump can influence the Fed, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Jay Pelosky is the founder of TPW Advisory. He has over 35 years of buy-side and sell-side financial market experience. Before going independent, Jay was at Morgan Stanley, where he was ranked #1 by Institutional Investor in Global Equity Strategy and Global Asset Allocation Strategy. In this podcast, we discuss how US, Europe and Asia are fighting over AI, climate and defence, fiscal capacity matters for growth stories, global equity bull market still in play, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Phil is the founder of Suttle Economics – a leading research consultancy. Before that, he held senior roles at Tudor, the Institute of International Finance (IIF), JP Morgan, Barclays, the New York Fed and World Bank. He was educated at Oxford University and lives in the US. In the podcast, we talk about how Trump 2.0 will impact macro, why tariffs matter, labour supply problems, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is the Chief US economist and macro strategist for Macro Hive and is based in Los Angeles. Before that, she worked at various hedge funds including Bridgewater. Prior to the buy side, she worked at the New York Fed, the IMF, and the World Bank. She holds a PhD in economics from the London School of Economics. This episode covers how Trump 2.0 is different from Trump 1.0, key Trump policies to watch, what consensus is getting wrong on US growth, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Mark Rzepczynski is the managing member and CEO of AMPHI Research and Trading, a consulting firm to institutional investors and hedge funds on derivatives markets across all asset classes. His 40 years of experience includes CEO Funds Group of FourWinds Capital Management, president, CIO of John W. Henry Inc, and head of taxable fixed income research at Fidelity Management and Research. He was assistant professor of finance at the University of Houston and is an associate editor of the Journal of Alternative Investments. In this podcast we discuss systematic vs discretionary trading, risk vs uncertainty, challenges of trading models, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Shawn Edwards is Bloomberg’s Chief Technology Officer. Based in New York, he oversees the development of Bloomberg’s global technology strategy. In 2017, Shawn was named in the top ten of the Institutional Investor Tech 40 – an annual ranking of financial industry technology leaders. Prior to joining Bloomberg in 2003, Shawn worked for Bear Stearns & Co. where he was a managing director in the company’s fixed income trading group. He has also held positions at Mentor Graphics and IBM. This podcast covers philosophy around tech innovation, product and infrastructure strategy, adapting to cloud, mobile and API-first, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Julia Azari is Professor in the Department of Political Science at Marquette University. She holds a Ph.D in political science from Yale University. Her research focuses on the American presidency, American political parties, political communication, and American political development. She is the author of ‘Delivering the People's Message: The Changing Politics of the Presidential Mandate’. She is a regular contributor to FiveThirtyEight.com, Politico, and The Washington Post. This episode covers what election results tell us about US politics, Trump’s executive power vs control over party, how Congress may push back on Trump, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Tomasz is a portfolio manager at Amvest Capital – a natural resources-focused investment management firm. He has over 25 years of expertise in mining investments, including as a portfolio manager for Anholt, commodity strategist at Doyen Capital, portfolio manager at De Gouden Eeuw, and as a commodity analyst at Round Table Investment Management. He is host of the Tyranny Today podcast and is also fluent in seven languages. In this podcast we discuss what a Trump world looks like, global trade and security arrangements, Russia/Ukraine endgame and NATO, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Frank Kelly, Founder and Managing Partner of Fulcrum Macro Advisors, an independent strategic advisory firm. Frank began his career as a writer for President Ronald Reagan and went on to serve in the White House Office of Political Affairs. He served as a writer for President George H.W. Bush and then served at the Justice Department. From there, Frank went to the US Securities and Exchange Commission, being appointed Senior Policy Advisor. He then held senior Public Affairs roles at Merrill Lynch, Charles Schwab and Deutsche Bank. In this podcast we discuss Reagan vs Trump, why Trump won the 2024 election, it is Trump 4.0 not Trump 2.0, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
In late September, I had the honour of recording a conversation with the late Professor Ian Shipsey, Head of Physics at Oxford University. Tragically, Professor Shipsey passed away shortly after our discussion. We are releasing this episode as a tribute to his remarkable contributions.
Professor Shipsey was one of the leading particle physicists of his generation and was Head of Physics at Oxford from 2018 until his passing. His groundbreaking work ranged from studying subatomic particles to advancing our understanding of the Higgs boson, discovered at CERN in 2012. In recognition of his extraordinary contributions, he was elected a Fellow of the Royal Society in 2022.
In this podcast, we discussed climate change and renewable energy, quantum computing, and how physics can change the world around us.
Charles Engel is Donald Hester Professor of Economics at the University of Wisconsin. He is also a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research and a Research Fellow at the Centre for Economic Policy Research. He has been a consultant to the Dallas and Chicago branches of the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England. In this podcast we discuss the standard model to explain FX movements, how to forecast FX, and the importance of safe-haven and liquidity demand for the dollar.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Alberto Gallo is Chief Investment Officer and Co-founder at Andromeda Capital Management. Prior to that, Alberto initiated and ran the Global Credit Opportunities fund at Algebris Investments. Previously, he ran macro credit research at RBS in London, and served in senior research roles at Goldman Sachs in New York, Bear Stearns in New York and London, and Merrill Lynch in London. In this podcast we discuss impact of Trump on markets, Fed’s likely path, US growth and credit expansion, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Gary Gerstle is the Paul Mellon Professor of American History Emeritus and Paul Mellon Director of Research at the University of Cambridge. He is the author and editor of more than ten books, including two prize-winners, American Crucible: Race and Nation in the Twentieth Century (2017) and Liberty and Coercion: The Paradox of American Government from the Founding to the Present (2015). His most recent book, The Rise and Fall of the Neoliberal Order: America and the World in the Free Market Era (2022), was chosen as a Best Book of 2022 by the Financial Times and Prospect Magazine. He has also testified before the US Congress on immigration matters. This podcast covers: how Trump won, inflation vs threat to democracy, how migrant issue was nationalised, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Ebrahim Rahbari is an independent strategist and economist. Previously, he was Chief Currency Strategist and Global Head of Foreign Exchange Analysis at Citi. The team was top ranked in the Institutional Investor Global Fixed Income Survey. Prior to that, Ebrahim was Head of Global Macroeconomics at Citi. Ebrahim studied at Oxford and holds a PhD in Economics from London Business School. In this podcast we discuss how to play US elections, short- and long-term impacts of a Trump or Harris win, why US economy is doing well, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Thomas Drechsel is Assistant Professor at the Economics Department of the University of Maryland. His research focuses on monetary policy, the role of commodities for emerging market economies, as well as real-time monitoring of economic activity. His work has been published in the Review of Economic Studies, the American Economic Journal and the Journal of Finance. He holds a PhD from the London School of Economics. In this podcast we discuss how to measure political pressure on Fed, the Nixon and LBJ cases, impact on inflation and growth, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank. In this podcast we discuss the key themes in oil for 2024: Middle East conflict, Saudi supply, China demand and the Trump agenda.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Antonio Del Favero is a macro strategist at Macro Hive. He focuses mainly on the US economy and markets and G5 FX. Formerly, he worked at various macro hedge funds, including Tudor, Maniyar Capital and Brevan Howard. He holds a master’s in finance from the ETH/University of Zurich and a master’s in economics from Bocconi University. In this podcast we discuss what is happening in the US labour market, whether the market pricing a soft landing, Fed hikes and the US cycle, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Sean McMeekin PhD was educated at Stanford University and the University of California, Berkeley. Having visited American and European battlefields, libraries and archives, venturing as far east as Russia and Turkey, he now teaches at Bard College. His eight award-winning books include ‘Stalin's War: A New History of World War’. His latest book is ‘To Overthrow the World: The Rise and Fall and Rise of Communism’. In this podcast we discuss the early roots of Communism, Karl Marx and political violence, Lenin and how to seize power, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Christian is Managing Director and Head of Data Science in the financial markets division at Standard Chartered. He focuses on credit and previously worked at Mizuho and Credit Suisse. His postgraduate studies were in financial mathematics. In this podcast we discuss whether we are in an AI bubble, why credit markets have lagged other markets in adopting AI, using generative AI to create synthetic data, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Jay Pelosky is the founder of TPW Advisory. He has over 35 years of buy-side and sell-side financial market experience. Before going independent, Jay was at Morgan Stanley, where he was ranked #1 by Institutional Investor in Global Equity Strategy and Global Asset Allocation Strategy. In this podcast, we discuss what the chances of recession are, US earnings and productivity, equities are not just a tech story, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Mirza Baig is a senior EM strategist at Macro Hive. He has been researching and trading global FX and rates products for 20 years. His career boasts affiliations with premier sell-side entities such as Morgan Stanley, BNP Paribas, and Deutsche Bank. Moreover, his invaluable expertise from the buy-side perspective at Point 72 positions him uniquely in the industry. In this podcast we discuss how EM has performed in recent years, the long-term case for EM, China: broad weakness, narrow strength, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Bob Elliott is the Co-Founder of Unlimited, which uses machine learning to create index replication ETFs of alternative investments, like hedge funds. Prior to founding Unlimited, Bob was a Senior Investment Executive at Bridgewater Associates, where he served on the Investment Committee (G7) and led Ray Dalio’s personal investment research team for nearly a decade. Bob holds a degree in History and Science from Harvard. In this podcast we discuss income business cycle rather than credit cycle, parallels to 1950s and 1960s, whether Fed policy is restrictive, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
J. Doyne Farmer is Director of the Complexity Economics Programme and Professor of Complex Systems Science at the University of Oxford. He is also External Professor at the Santa Fe Institute and Chief Scientist at Macrocosm. He was a founder of Prediction Company, a quantitative automated trading firm that was sold to UBS in 2006. His book, Making Sense of Chaos: A Better Economics for a Better World, was published in 2024. During the 1980s he was an Oppenheimer Fellow and the founder of the Complex Systems Group at Los Alamos National Laboratory. While a graduate student in the 1970s, he built the first wearable digital computer, which was successfully used to predict the game of roulette. This podcast covers what chaos theory is, what complexity science is, how economists model the economy, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Shawn Edwards is Bloomberg’s Chief Technology Officer. Based in New York, he oversees the development of Bloomberg’s global technology strategy. In 2017, Shawn was named in the top ten of the Institutional Investor Tech 40 – an annual ranking of financial industry technology leaders. Prior to joining Bloomberg in 2003, Shawn worked for Bear Stearns & Co. where he was a managing director in the company’s fixed income trading group. He has also held positions at Mentor Graphics and IBM. This podcast covers philosophy around tech innovation, product and infrastructure strategy, adapting to cloud, mobile and API-first, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Brad Setser is the Whitney Shepardson senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. His expertise includes global trade and capital flows, financial vulnerability analysis, and sovereign debt restructuring. He regularly blogs at Follow the Money. Brad served as a senior advisor to the United States Trade Representative from 2021 to 2022, where he worked on the resolution of a number of trade disputes. He had previously served as the deputy assistant secretary for international economic analysis in the US Treasury from 2011 to 2015 and as a director for international economics on the staff of the National Economic Council and the National Security Council. This podcast covers yen carry trade dynamics, FX intervention, Japan fiscal dynamics, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
My colleague Mirza Baig hosted this podcast on my behalf. Liang is a markets professional, with 20 years’ experience as a portfolio manager, quantitative analyst, currency strategist, and China economist. He has spent most of his career based in Germany, where he earned his PhD and worked at several asset managers including DWS. Liang recently returned to his hometown of Shanghai, from where he speaks to global asset managers through the Macro Hive platform, advising them about the macro and policy outlook for China. This episode covers whether Fed rate cuts can prevent a deeper sell-off in global equity markets, current state of the Chinese economy, whether the Chinese government is becoming more serious about reflating the economy, especially consumer demand, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Álvaro Cartea is Professor of Mathematical Finance in the Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, and director of the Oxford-Man Institute of Quantitative Finance. He is a founding member and deputy chairman of the Commodities & Energy Markets Association (CEMA). Before coming to Oxford, Álvaro was Reader in Mathematical Finance at University College London. He was also previously JP Morgan Lecturer in Financial Mathematics, Exeter College, University of Oxford. Álvaro obtained his doctorate from the University of Oxford in 2003. This podcast covers the evolution of AI trading strategies, the unintented consequences of AI market makers, and the regulatory aspects of AI in finance.
Gary Gerstle is the Paul Mellon Professor of American History Emeritus and Paul Mellon Director of Research at the University of Cambridge. He is the author and editor of more than ten books, including two prize-winners, American Crucible: Race and Nation in the Twentieth Century (2017) and Liberty and Coercion: The Paradox of American Government from the Founding to the Present (2015). His most recent book, The Rise and Fall of the Neoliberal Order: America and the World in the Free Market Era (2022), was chosen as a Best Book of 2022 by the Financial Times and Prospect Magazine. He has also testified before the US Congress on immigration matters. This podcast covers switching Presidential nominees – parallels to 1968, Kamala’s VP pick, whether Kamala will be a continuity candidate or something different, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Dr. Pippa Malmgren is an economist who makes sense of the world economy by writing books, founding tech businesses, advising policymakers around the world and through public speaking and teaching. She lectures at Sandhurst and is a Founder member of the Lunar University, a NASA-originated project to ensure the first human institution on the moon represents the arts and humanities.
She served President George W. Bush in the White House as Special Assistant to the President and on the National Economic Council. After 9/11 she was also responsible for assessing terrorism risks to the economy and technology as a source of geopolitical competitiveness. She advised the British cabinet on trade issues as a Board Member for the Department for International Trade from 2017-2019. Her most recent bestseller, The Infinite Leader, won the International Press Award for the Best Book on Leadership for 2021. In this podcast, we discuss what Trump’s administration will be like, importance of JD Vance and Robert Kennedy, Project 2025; threats to democracy, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak is Boston Consulting Group (BCG)’s Global Chief Economist and a managing director and partner in the firm’s New York office. Paul Swartz is Senior Economist and executive director at BCG. He co-leads the Center for Macroeconomics at the BCG Henderson Institute in New York. They have recently published a new book, ‘Shocks, Crises, and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk’. In this podcast, we discuss why there are so many false alarms on recessions, models vs eclectic approaches, how will AI impact economic growth, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
My colleague Henry Occelston hosted this podcast on my behalf. Shahin Vallée is a senior fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations (a German think tank) and also a Board Member overseeing Europe coverage at the Observatory group, a geopolitical macro-advisory firm. He was previously an economic advisor to the President of the European Council, Herman von Rompuy, and also an economic advisor to Emmanuel Macron while Macron was Economy Minister of France. This podcast covers why Macron called a snap election, how to interpret the first round of the election, why a far-right majority is still possible, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Boris is one of the leading macro thinkers in the market. He is a managing director at Goldman Sachs. Before GS, he was partner and portfolio manager at Rokos Capital Management, Fortress, and Brevan Howard. Boris started his career on the sell side, which included working at UBS and Dresdner. Boris gives his personal opinions and not those of Goldman Sachs or any other organisations he is affiliated with. In this podcast, we discuss late cycle dynamics, concerns about China, impact on Europe, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Vasileios is Head of Europe Economics and Strategy at Aviva Investors – a £226bn global asset management firm. Based in London, he is responsible for monitoring and analysing macroeconomic developments and markets as well as formulating major asset class views, leading research and strategy in the UK and Europe. Previously, he held senior research roles at Citigroup, Lombard Odier, UniCredit Bank, BofA, Merrill Lynch, and Fulcrum Asset Management. In this podcast, we discuss the UK election impact, UK inflation and BoE cuts, comparing UK and European mortgage rates, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
George Selgin is a senior fellow and director emeritus of the Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives at the Cato Institute and professor emeritus of economics at the University of Georgia. He is the author of numerous books, including ‘The Theory of Free Banking’, ‘Floored! How a Misguided Fed Experiment Deepened and Prolonged the Great Recession’ and ‘The Menace of Fiscal QE’. George is one of the founders, with Kevin Dowd and Lawrence H. White, of the Modern Free Banking School, which draws its inspiration from the writings of F. A. Hayek on denationalization of money and choice in currency. In this podcast, we discuss how marine biology helps you understand economics, how the Fed fundamentally changed after the Global Financial Crisis, understanding the Fed’s abundant reserves policy, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Jason Furman is the Aetna Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy jointly at Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) and the Department of Economics at Harvard University. He is also non-resident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Previously, Furman served eight years as a top economic adviser to President Barack Obama, including serving as the 28th Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers from August 2013 to January 2017, acting as both Obama’s chief economist and a member of the cabinet. In this podcast we discuss the difference between policymaking and academia, what caused post-COVID inflation, inflation persistence, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Gordon Hanson is the Peter Wertheim Professor in Urban Policy at Harvard Kennedy School (HKS). He is also chair of the Social and Urban Policy Area at HKS, a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. Gordon’s current research addresses the causes and consequences of regional job loss, effectiveness of place-based policies in alleviating regional economic distress, and the labour market consequences of the energy transition. This work is part of the Reimagining the Economy project at HKS, which Gordon co-directs with Dani Rodrik. In this podcast we discuss the rise of China and its impact on the US, whether WTO entry mattered and which sectors played by the rules, comparing the rise of Japan and Asia Tigers, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Mustafa is a rates guru and member of the research team at Macro Hive. Before this, Mustafa was the Head of Rates, FX, and Derivatives at Voya Investments, where he helped manage $40 billion of assets. Prior to that, he was a Managing Director and Head of US Rates and MBS Strategy at Deutsche Bank. And in the 1990s, he was Co-Head of Asset-Liability Management at Freddie Mac, where he was responsible for managing one of the world’s largest fixed income derivatives portfolios and trading desks. In this podcast we discuss misunderstandings around current rates regime, the rise in household wealth, why levels matter more than changes, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is the Chief US economist and macro strategist for Macro Hive and is based in Los Angeles. Before that, she worked at various hedge funds including Bridgewater. Prior to the buy side, she worked at the New York Fed, the IMF, and the World Bank. She holds a PhD in economics from the London School of Economics. This episode covers the two regime model of inflation, that financial tightening transmission is much weaker, why there is no recession, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Nick Rohatyn is Founder and serves as Chief Executive Officer of The Rohatyn Group. TRG is a global asset manager specialising in emerging markets and real assets, with over $8bn in assets under management. Prior to founding TRG in 2002, Nick spent 19-years at J.P. Morgan, including 5 years as a member of J.P. Morgan’s executive management team, holding a variety of leadership positions in emerging markets, foreign exchange, commodities, credit markets, and e-commerce functions. In this podcast we discuss pivotal moments for EM from Brady bonds to Global Financial Crisis, the impact of low rates and rise of China on EM, the mportance of local knowledge in EM, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Lindsay Politi is Head of Inflation Strategies at One River Asset Management. Lindsay began her career at Wellington Management in Boston where she was head of Global Inflation-linked Investments. In that role she was one of the top TIPS managers by assets, managing over $10 billion in dedicated assets, with a top quintile track record for excess in her peer group. She then joined Tudor Investment Corporation in Greenwich as a discretionary macro investor, translating her inflation strategy onto a macro hedge fund platform. She then joined One River Asset Management in 2018. In this podcast we discuss how sentiment rather than actual inflation trend shifted in Q1, goods vs services inflation, PCE vs CPI inflation, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Bilal is the CEO and Head of Research at Macro Hive. Before that, Bilal was Global Head of International Fixed Income Strategy at Nomura, and Head of Multi-Asset Research and Advisor to the CEO at Deutsche Bank. Bilal started his twenty-year career at JP Morgan. Academically, Bilal was an Honorary Visiting Professor of Finance at Cass Business School and studied Economics at St Johns College, Cambridge. This week’s podcast covers: whether the Fed will cut in 2024? What people are ignoring about China, Europe’s strategic problem, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Nick Baltas is a managing director and head of R&D, cross-asset delta-one and commodity systematic trading strategies at Goldman Sachs. Prior to joining Goldman Sachs in 2017, Nick was an executive director in the quantitative research unit of UBS. Previously, he was a lecturer in finance at Imperial College Business School, a visiting lecturer at Queen Mary University of London, as well as a risk manager in a London-based hedge fund. This podcast covers: difference between alpha, beta, smart beta and factors, difference between a good backtest vs true risk premia, why momentum makes money, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
John Coates is the Deputy Dean of Harvard Law School. He has served at the Securities and Exchange Commission, and was a partner at Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz, specializing in financial institutions. He has testified before Congress and provided consulting services to the Department of Justice, the Department of Treasury, and the New York Stock Exchange. He is author of the ‘The Problem of Twelve: When a Few Financial Institutions Control Everything’. This podcast covers: the rise of the public company, how companies balance the interests of society, the 1970s disruption to corporate order, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
This podcast is sponsored by Supernormal (Supernormal - AI That Writes Your Meeting Notes/https://supernormal.com/).
Mark Koyama is Associate Professor of Economics at George Mason University and Mercatus Center. Mark earned his PhD in Economics from the University of Oxford. He focuses on how historical institutions functioned and on the relationship between culture and economic performance. He is the author of several books, most recently ‘How the World Became Rich’ with Jared Rubin. This podcast covers: how to measure prosperity today and in the past, whether geography makes some nations richer than others, landlocked countries, Islamic empire, Mongol invasion, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Darrell Duffie is a leading expert on bond markets. He is the Adams Distinguished Professor of Management and Professor of Finance at the Graduate School of Business, Stanford University. He has been on the finance faculty at Stanford since receiving his Ph.D. from Stanford in 1984. He is author of several books, including ‘Fragmenting Markets: Post-Crisis Bank Regulations and Financial Market Liquidity’. He presented at the 2023 Jackson Hole Symposium. This podcast covers: key events that impacted Treasury market functioning from GFC to COVID, the growth of Treasury market vs stagnant bank balance sheets, bank leverage ratios and central clearing, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
David Dredge is the Chief Investment Officer of Convex Strategies, which is an agnostic value investor in volatility. David has over 30 years experience managing risk across global markets. Prior to launching Convex Strategies, David served as a Managing Director and Portfolio Manager at Artradis Fund Management in Singapore, where he was responsible for the fixed income aspects of their volatility strategy. Earlier in his career, David built and ran Asian and Global EM trading businesses for RBS (ABN AMRO Group), Bankers Trust, and Bank of America. He currently sits on the Monetary Authority of Singapore Markets Committee (SFEMC). This podcast covers: the problem with the BoJ’s timid hike, fiscal dominance and the need for bond buyers, how central banks have shifted goalposts on inflation, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Dave DeWalt is Founder, CEO, and Managing Director of NightDragon, an investment and advisory firm focused on growth and late-stage cybersecurity, safety, security, and privacy companies. Before NightDragon, Dave helped create more than $20 billion in shareholder value during his 15-plus years as President and CEO of Documentum, McAfee, and FireEye. That includes driving the most successful cybersecurity IPO ever in 2013 and leading the largest all-cash deal in technology history in 2010. Dave has also served on the US National Security Telecommunications Advisory Council for the past four US administrations to advise on national security related to telecommunications systems. This podcast covers: working with National Security Council and Homeland Security, the recent history of cyber attacks on the US, cognitive warfare and disinformation, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
This podcast is sponsored by Supernormal (https://supernormal.com/).
Nigel Toon is the founder of Graphcore, which builds unique IPU chips designed for AI. He sits as a Non-Executive Director on the board of the UK Research and Innovation Council and has sat on the UK Prime Minister’s Business Council. He has been ranked #1 on Business Insider’s UK Tech 100 and named as one of the ‘Top 100 entrepreneurs in the UK’ by the Financial Times. He is the author of the best-selling book ‘How AI Thinks’. This podcast covers: comparing chips: CPU vs GPU vs IPU, data vs information, big data and neural networks, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Gary Gerstle is the Paul Mellon Professor of American History Emeritus and Paul Mellon Director of Research at the University of Cambridge. He is the author and editor of more than ten books, including two prize-winners, American Crucible: Race and Nation in the Twentieth Century (2017) and Liberty and Coercion: The Paradox of American Government from the Founding to the Present (2015). His most recent book, The Rise and Fall of the Neoliberal Order: America and the World in the Free Market Era (2022), was chosen as a Best Book of 2022 by the Financial Times and Prospect Magazine. He has also testified before the US Congress on immigration matters. This podcast covers: what Biden has achieved during his administration, shifting power from markets to the state, why Biden is unpopular, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Claudia Sahm is a well-known, highly regarded, Washington-based expert on monetary and fiscal policy and forecasting. She has advised decision-makers at the Federal Reserve, White House, and Congress. She created a widely used and highly accurate recession indicator, the Sahm rule. Sahm is the founder of Stay-at-Home Macro (SAHM) Consulting. Previously, she was a section chief at the Federal Reserve and a senior economist at the Council of Economic Advisers. Sahm holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Michigan. This podcast covers: whether US fiscal policy worked and whether it caused inflation, the main causes of inflation, why there is no wage-cost inflation, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Melanie Mitchell is one of the leading AI researchers in the world. She is Professor at the Santa Fe Institute. Her current research focuses on conceptual abstraction and analogy-making in artificial intelligence systems. Melanie is the author or editor of six books and numerous scholarly papers in the fields of artificial intelligence, cognitive science, and complex systems. Her most recent book is entitled ‘Artificial Intelligence: A Guide for Thinking Humans’. This episode’s podcast covers: evolution of AI from cybernetics to neural networks and deep learning, how big (labelled) data helped AI, what intelligence is, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Alberto Gallo is Chief Investment Officer and Co-founder at Andromeda Capital Management. Prior to that, Alberto initiated and ran the Global Credit Opportunities fund at Algebris Investments. Previously, he ran macro credit research at RBS in London, and served in senior research roles at Goldman Sachs in New York, Bear Stearns in New York and London, and Merrill Lynch in London. In this podcast we discuss: the market being too focused on rate cuts, the importance of the new fiscal regime, inflation risks, and much more.
Charts mentioned can be found here: https://macrohive.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/Gallo-charts.pdf
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Henry Ritchotte is the Founder of RitMir Ventures, investing in financial services businesses with a focus on regulatory- and technology-driven business models. Before that, Henry served as Chief Digital Officer of Deutsche Bank, creating the blueprint for a digital challenger bank within Deutsche Bank. Previously, Henry was Chief Operating Officer and a member of the Management Board and Group Executive Committee at Deutsche Bank. This episode's podcast covers: dealing with the 2008 financial crisis, running a bank through the eyes of a COO, why European banks haven’t toppled US banks, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Julia Azari is Professor in the Department of Political Science at Marquette University. She holds a Ph.D in political science from Yale University. Her research focuses on the American presidency, American political parties, political communication, and American political development. She is the author of ‘Delivering the People's Message: The Changing Politics of the Presidential Mandate’. She is a regular contributor to FiveThirtyEight.com, Politico, and The Washington Post. This episode covers: what led to Presidential powers in foreign and domestic policy, the impact of the George W Bush years, how does the constitution constrain presidential power, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is the Chief US economist and macro strategist for Macro Hive and is based in Los Angeles. Before that, she worked at various hedge funds including Bridgewater. Prior to the buy side, she worked at the New York Fed, the IMF, and the World Bank. She holds a PhD in economics from the London School of Economics. This episode covers what has made Dominique switch from being hawkish to dovish on the Fed, low and high inflation regimes, the importance of energy prices and foreign workers, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Chris Rauh is a Professor of Economics and Data Science at the University of Cambridge. He works with complex datasets and applied methodologies, including machine learning and structural modelling. He co-founded conflictforecast.org and has conducted projects for Britain’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, the German Foreign Office, and the IMF. He’s also listed amongst the top 1% of Economists in terms of research output in the last ten years. This episode's podcast covers: the hard problem of predicting conflicts, defining conflicts: wars, civil wars, terrorism, whether the theory of conflict match reality, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
John was previously Head of Macro Strategies at Record Currency Management, an $80 billion currency manager. Prior to that, John was Chairman and CIO of Floyd Plus Currency Fund. Before that, John was a Senior Macro Proprietary Trader at Deutsche Bank and Senior Portfolio Manager at the highly successful $3bn Swiss Bank Currency Fund. John’s successful track record in both macro and currency only investing spans over 25 years. John has also collaborated with psychiatrist, trading coach, and best-selling author, Ari Kiev, which led to participation in writing his book, The Psychology of Risk: Mastering Market Uncertainty. This week's podcast covers: finding asymmetric returns, how to deal with losses, meta lessons from 2023, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
This podcast was recorded in March 2023. Niall Ferguson is the Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and a senior faculty fellow of the Belfer Center at Harvard, where he served for twelve years as the Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History. He is the author of sixteen books. This includes the international bestseller, The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World. His most recent book is Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe. In addition to his academic work, he is the founder and managing director of Greenmantle LLC, an advisory firm. In this podcast we discuss the proper way to do historical analysis, the new conflict on AI and quantum, geological risks, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Bilal is the CEO and Head of Research at Macro Hive. Before that, Bilal was Global Head of International Fixed Income Strategy at Nomura, and Head of Multi-Asset Research and Advisor to the CEO at Deutsche Bank. Bilal started his twenty-year career at JP Morgan. Academically, Bilal was an Honorary Visiting Professor of Finance at Cass Business School and studied Economics at St Johns College, Cambridge. This week's podcast covers: the biggest surprises of 2023, why covering oil and China is important, understanding the drivers of US growth, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Liang is currently based in Shanghai and has close to twenty years of market experience as a currency strategist, China economist, portfolio manager, and quant analyst. He has worked for DWS, Sal Oppenheim, and Union Invest. This week's podcast covers: sentiment on the streets of Shanghai, how the China economy performed over 2023, more supply than demand, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Shiloh Bates is the Chief Investment Officer of Flat Rock Global in 2018 – a $750mn credit manager. Prior to joining Flat Rock Global, Shiloh was a Managing Director at Benefit Street Partners, and Head of Structured Products at BDCA Advisor. During his 20-year career, Shiloh has worked for several CLO managers and invested over $1.5 billion in CLO securities. He is the author of the recently published ‘CLO Investing – With an Emphasis on CLO Equity & BB Notes’. This week's podcast covers everything to do with CLOs, from definitions throught to their evolution and performance in today's landscape.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Yesha Yadav is Associate Dean and Professor of Law at Vanderbilt University Law School. She is one of the world’s leading experts on financial and securities regulation. Before Vanderbilt, Yesha worked as legal counsel with the World Bank and before that she practiced regulatory and derivatives law at Clifford Chance. This week's podcast covers key bankruptcies in crypto from Celsius to FTX, crypto regulation and enforcement risks, and the impact of AI in financial markets.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Greg Lippmann is the Managing Founding Partner and the Chief Investment Officer of the $9.8bn asset management firm, LibreMax. Prior to founding LibreMax, Greg was head of all non-agency RMBS, ABS, and CDO trading globally at Deutsche Bank. His prescient call on the subprime crisis was immortalized in the book and film The Big Short. In the film, Greg is played by Ryan Gosling. In this podcast we discuss: what led Greg to believe there would be a subprime crisis, thinking about convex trades, launching LibreMax, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Charlie McElligott is the leading expert on all things positioning, flow, sentiment, and quant factors. He is a Managing Director and Cross-Asset Macro Strategist for the Global Markets Americas business at Nomura Securities International, with more than 15 years’ experience in macro markets. Prior to joining Nomura, Charlie was Head of US Cross-Asset Macro Strategy at RBC Capital Markets. Before that, he spent eight years at UBS. In this podcast we discuss: what was behind this year’s rates sell-off, how to think about financial conditions tightening, real money demand for duration, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Dr Douglas Greenig is the CEO, CIO, and founder of Florin Court Capital, a systematic, trend-following asset manager uniquely broad in its focus on over 500 markets. Doug has over 25 years of experience in portfolio management and trading. Prior to founding Florin Court, Doug started in markets on Goldman Sachs’ bond arbitrage proprietary desk through the late ‘90s after being hired as an Assistant by Fischer Black. Following this, Doug headed Agency Mortgage Trading at RBS Greenwich Capital, worked as a quantitative portfolio manager at Fortress Investment Group, and then as Chief Risk Officer at London quant firm AHL. In this podcast we discuss: how trend-following works, the importance of volatility scaling to trend-followers, the importance of diversification in gaining an edge, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Marc Goldwein is the Senior Vice President and Senior Policy Director for the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, where he guides and conducts research on a wide array of topics related to fiscal policy and the federal budget. He works regularly with Members of Congress and their staffs on budget-related issues. In this podcast we discuss: the scale of US debt and deficit, how COVID impacted spending, trends in healthcare, social security spending, and taxes, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
This week we have a special podcast episode for you! Listen to the Macro Hive Pro Markets Webinar and hear the key views of our leading researchers on their respective markets.
This week, US macro expert Dominique Dwor-Frecaut reveals her outlook on the Fed (pre-FOMC), EM strategist Mirza Baig presents his new Emerging Markets Vulnerability and Scenario Analysis report, which reveals the countries most vulnerable to declining global liquidity and higher rates hurdles. We also hear from Henry Occleston on the Bank of England, and Ben Ford explains what he expects from Norges Bank and RBA.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Boris is one of the leading macro thinkers in the market. He is a managing director at Goldman Sachs. Before GS, he was partner and portfolio manager at Rokos Capital Management, Fortress, and Brevan Howard. Boris started his career on the sell-side which included working at UBS and Dresdner. Boris will be giving his personal opinions and not those of Goldman Sachs or any other organisations he is affiliated with. In this podcast we discuss: the impact of fiscal policy on growth, how rates sensitivity of private sector has changed, recession odds, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
This episode is sponsored by Masterworks (www.masterworks.art/macrohive)
Professor Daniel Rock is an Assistant Professor of Operations, Information, and Decisions at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. His research is on the economic effects of digital technologies, with a particular emphasis on the economics of artificial intelligence. His research has been published in various academic journals and featured in outlets such as The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Harvard Business Review, and Sloan Management Review. In this podcast we discuss: the lasting impact on work practises after the COVID lockdowns, why productivity been weak in recent decades, understanding digital goods and intangible assets, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Marty co-founded Aspect Capital, which manages over $8bn in a range of systematic investment solutions. He is the Research Director and oversees the Research Team responsible for generating and analysing fundamental research hypotheses for development of all Aspect’s investment programmes. He currently serves on the Board of the National Futures Association and as Chair of the Oxford Physics Development Board. Prior to founding Aspect, Marty was with Adam, Harding and Lueck Limited (AHL), which he co-founded in 1987 with Michael Adam and David Harding. He holds an M.A. in Physics from Oxford University. In the podcast, we talk about importance of testing hypotheses, ChatGPT and LLMs, why trend works as a style and impact on portfolios.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
This episode is sponsored by Masterworks
Jason Halliwell is the head of GMO’s Systematic Global Macro team and a partner of the firm. GMO is a leading value-oriented asset manager with $60bn under management. Jason joined GMO in September 1999 from Westpac Investment Management where he spent three years in research and development of quantitative tactical asset allocation methods. In the podcast, we talk about equity views, why systematic works in macro, how to think about value investing, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Barry Eichengreen, Professor of Economics and Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley, is a former senior policy adviser at the International Monetary Fund. He is the author of many books, including most recently “In Defense of Public Debt”. He was also a presenter at the Fed’s 2023 Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. In the podcast, we talk about the rise of debt around the world, how the structure of debt has changed, financial repression, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Phil is the founder of Suttle Economics – a leading research consultancy. Before that, he held senior roles at Tudor, the Institute of International Finance (IIF), JP Morgan, Barclays, the New York Fed and World Bank. He was educated at Oxford University and lives in the US. In the podcast, we talk about what will cause a recession, surprise factory building, view on Euro-area and UK, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is a Senior Macro Strategist for Macro Hive based in Los Angeles. She has been producing alpha-generating trade ideas in FX and rates in EM and G10 at established and startup macro hedge funds in the US since 2011, including at Bridgewater. She has also produced in-depth analysis of central banks policies and procedures drawing on her experience at the New York Fed, the IMF and the World Bank as well as on the buy- and sell-side. Before moving to the US, she covered Asian and global EMs at Barclays capital, ABN AMRO and RBS from Singapore. She holds a PhD in economics from the London School of Economics. In this podcast we discuss why the Fed will still hike to 7%-8%, difference between high and low inflation regimes, how Dominique could be wrong, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Mustafa is a rates guru and member of the research team at Macro Hive. Before this, Mustafa was the Head of Rates, FX, and Derivatives at Voya Investments, where he helped manage $40 billion of assets. Prior to that, he was a Managing Director and Head of US Rates and MBS Strategy at Deutsche Bank. And in the 1990s, he was Co-head of Asset-Liability Management at Freddie Mac, where he was responsible for managing one of the world’s largest fixed income derivatives portfolios and trading desks. In this podcast we discuss w hy the Fed still needs to hike rates, the importance of US fiscal and industrial policy, understanding US housing, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Dr. Adrian Williams is the UK’s first Professor of Sleep Medicine. Adrian graduated from University College, London, UK, and after a lectureship at The Cardiothoracic Institute, Brompton Hospital in 1975 took up an appointment at Harvard, Boston, USA, followed by an invitation to University of California (UCLA) in 1977. In 1985 Professor Williams became tenured Professor of Medicine at UCLA and co-Director of the UCLA Sleep Laboratory. In 1994 he returned to London where he developed the Sleep Centre at Guy’s and St. Thomas’ now the most active in the UK, and continues in the full-time practice of Sleep Medicine. In addition, Professor Williams holds the UK’s first Chair in Sleep Medicine at Kings College, London, UK. In the podcast, we talk about why we sleep, the impact of lack of sleep on decision-making, and much more...
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Denise Shull is the Founder and CEO of ReThink. In that role, she uses neuroscience and modern psychoanalysis to help clients become successful in investing, trading, and leading teams. She has consulted on the development of Showtime’s BILLIONS, coached Olympic champions, and often appears on CNBC, Bloomberg and in the Wall Street Journal. Before ReThink, Denise worked in finance. She started at one of the first electronic trading firms in Chicago, then traded at Schonfeld Securities before she ran her own desk at Sharpe Capital. Denise holds a Master of Arts from the University of Chicago. Her thesis was cited in 2013 as one of the first papers written about neuropsychoanalysis. In this podcast we discuss why understanding perception, judgment and decision making matters, how your unconscious affects your decision making, the particular challenge of trading and investing in markets, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Michael is a research fellow with the MIT Sloan School of Management's Initiative on the Digital Economy. His research focuses on the behavioural economics of models, prototypes, and metrics as for managing innovation risk and opportunity. He is author of the award-winning book The Innovator’s Hypothesis and most recently Recommendation Engines. In this podcast we discuss the interaction of tech and capital, the architecture choice, time on board of Match.com, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Bill Bernstein is a neurologist turned investment advisor. He is also the author of several books, including The Intelligent Asset Allocator, The Four Pillars of Investing, If You Can: How Millennials Can Get Rich Slowly, and The Delusion of Crowds. Bill has just come out with a new edition of The Four Pillars of Investing. In this podcast we discuss understanding the business of investing, how to set up your portfolio at different ages, knowing your history, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Stephen is a faculty member at Yale University and former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia. He is the author of Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China and most recently Accidental Conflict: America, China, and the Clash of False Narratives. In this podcast we discuss the problem with US savings, w hy Biden continues Trump policies, China’s failed rebalancing, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Sebastian is the Paul A. Volcker senior fellow for international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). An experienced journalist and public speaker, Mallaby contributes to a variety of publications, including Foreign Affairs, the Atlantic, the Washington Post, and the Financial Times, where he spent two years as a contributing editor. He is the author of five books, including bestseller More Money Than God: Hedge Funds and the Making of a New Elite and most recently The Power Law: Venture Capital and the Making of the New Future. In this podcast we discuss how Venture Capital (VC) work, Arthur Rock (father of VC), re-thinking Greenspan, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Peter Stella is former head of the Central Banking and Monetary and Foreign Exchange Operations Divisions at the IMF. Currently, he provides macroeconomic policy advice and research to central banks, governments, and private clients in Asia, Europe, the United States and Latin America. In this podcast, we discuss f ramework for multi-asset investing, the power of fiscal policy, politics of Fed, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Trevor Greetham is Head of Multi Asset at Royal London Asset Management - a £150bn fund. Prior to joining Royal London in 2015, Trevor was asset allocation director for Fidelity Worldwide Investment, where he was responsible for implementing tactical investment decisions across a wide range of institutional and retail funds including the Fidelity Multi Asset Strategic Fund. In this podcast we discuss framework for multi-asset investing, falling inflation and rising growth, w hen to add and remove factors, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Sean McGould – the founder/CEO of the Lighthouse Group – a $55bn investment management firm. Prior to Lighthouse, Sean was the Director of the Outside Trader Investment Program for Trout Trading Management Company. Before joining Trout, he worked for Price Waterhouse in auditing and corporate finance. In this podcast we discuss how accounting knowledge helps investing, evolution of hedge fund industry since 1970s, how to pick a portfolio manager, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Bob Elliott is the Co-Founder of Unlimited, which uses machine learning to create index replication ETFs of alternative investments, like hedge funds. Prior to founding Unlimited, Bob was a Senior Investment Executive at Bridgewater Associates, where he served on the Investment Committee (G7) and led Ray Dalio’s personal investment research team for nearly a decade. Bob holds a degree in History and Science from Harvard. In this podcast we discuss lessons learned at Bridgewater, what’s driving inflation, why Fed hikes are not working, benefits of diversification, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
This episode is sponsored by Kalshi.Inc
Martin Wolf is chief economics commentator at the Financial Times, London. He was awarded the CBE (Commander of the British Empire) in 2000 ‘for services to financial journalism.’ His latest book is ‘The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism’. In this podcast we discuss why write on democracy and capitalism now, why capitalism and democracy are linked to each other, how capitalism disrupts existing hierarchies, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Alberto Gallo is Chief Investment Officer and Co-founder at Andromeda Capital Management. Prior to that, Alberto initiated and ran the Global Credit Opportunities fund at Algebris Investments. Previously, he ran macro credit research at RBS in London, and served in senior research roles at Goldman Sachs in New York, Bear Stearns in New York and London and Merrill Lynch in London. In this podcast we discuss the transition from sell-side to buy-side, creating an edge in investing, finding value in European markets, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
This episode is sponsored by Kalshi.Inc
Deepak Gurnani is the Founder and Managing Partner of Versor Investments - $2bn quantitative investment firm. Deepak is the former CIO of Investcorp’s Hedge Fund Group and was one of the founding members in 1996. He was also a member of the Management Committee there. Deepak retired from Investcorp in March 2013. Prior to Investcorp, Deepak Gurnani spent six years with Citicorp. In this podcast we discuss the best way to implement trend following strategies, mistakes made by trend-followers, importance of sector neutrality, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
This episode is sponsored by Kalshi.Inc
Jim Rogers co-founded the Quantum Fund, a global-investment partnership. During the next 10 years, the portfolio gained 4200%, while the S&P rose less than 50%. Rogers then decided to retire – at age 37. Continuing to manage his own portfolio, Rogers kept busy serving as a full professor of finance at the Columbia University Graduate School of Business. In 1990-1992, Rogers fulfilled his lifelong dream: motorcycling 100,000 miles across six continents, a feat that landed him in the Guinness Book of World Records. He chronicled his one-of-a-kind journey in Investment Biker: On the Road with Jim Rogers. He has also authored several other books: Adventure Capitalist, Hot Commodities, A Bull in China, A Gift to My Children and Street Smarts. Jim attended Yale and Oxford University. In this podcast we discuss the banking risks, which currency can rival the dollar, the impact of AI, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Stefan Jansen is the author of the widely read ‘Machine Learning For Algorithmic Trading’. He is the founder and Lead Data Scientist at Applied AI. He advises Fortune 500 companies, investment firms and startups across industries on data & AI strategy and developing machine learning solutions. Before his current venture, he was a partner at Infusive, an international investment firm, where he built the predictive analytics and investment research practice. He also was a senior executive at Rev Worldwide, a global fintech company focused on payments. Earlier, he advised Central Banks in emerging markets, and consulted for the World Bank. In this podcast we discuss what benefits does machine learning bring that other techniques don’t have, t he challenge of using machine learning in finance, u ses for ChatGPT and LLMs, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Gavyn Davies is a Founder and the Chairman of Fulcrum – a $5bn independent asset management firm. Prior to Fulcrum, Gavyn was Chairman of the BBC from 2001. He joined Goldman Sachs in 1986 and became Partner in 1988 when he also became the Chief Economist as well as Chairman of the Research Department until he left in 2001. Gavyn was a member of H.M.Treasury Independent Forecasting Panel (1992-1997). He joined the Government’s Policy Unit as an Economist (1974) and was an Economic Policy Adviser to the British Prime Minister (1976-1979). Gavyn graduated in Economics from Cambridge in 1972 followed by two years of research at Oxford. In this podcast we discuss difference between public and private sector economics, framework for asset allocation, upside risks to oil markets, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Gene Ma is the Head of China Research at the IIF. Prior to joining the IIF, Gene served as China Strategist at top macro hedge fund Tudor Investment. He has also held the positions of Managing Director at ISI Group, Chief Analyst at CEBM Group (now part of Caixin), Chief Macro Analyst at Citic Securities, and served at China's Ministry of Finance in Beijing, and much more. In this podcast we discuss:
-
Current state of China economy
-
China’s excess capacity build-up during COVID
-
State of household balance sheet and post-lockdown behaviour
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Zar Amrolia was recently the co-Chief of XTX Markets – one of the top algorithmic trading companies in the world. Before XTX, Zar was Co-Head of Fixed Income, Currencies and Commodities at Deutsche Bank and a Partner at Goldman Sachs. He started off as a quant at JPMorgan in 1988. He has PhD in Mathematics from Oxford University. In this podcast we discuss creating one-click trading, how computers impacted pricing derivatives, future of investment banks, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
This episode is sponsored by Amber Group
Ken Tropin is a legend in the macro space. He is the Chairman and the founder of Graham Capital Management (GCM) - $18bn fund. Ken founded GCM in 1994 and over the last 28 years has grown the firm into an industry leading alternative investment manager focusing on global macro discretionary and quantitative hedge fund strategies. Prior to founding GCM, Ken had significant experience in the alternative investment industry, including five years (1989 to 1993) as President and Chief Executive Officer of John W. Henry & Company, Inc. and seven years (1982 to 1989) as Senior Vice President and Director of Managed Futures at Dean Witter Reynolds. In this podcast we discuss the early days of macro and CTA trading, influence of Paul Tudor Jones, the challenge of trading 2011-2021, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Robert Koenigsberger is Founder, Chief Investment Officer and the Managing Partner of the $5bn EM fund, Gramercy. He founded Gramercy in 1998. Robert has 36 years of investment experience dedicated to emerging markets with a specialization in distressed opportunistic credit strategies. He is a member of Gramercy’s Management Team and is Co-Chair of the Risk Management Committee. In this podcast we discuss common misconceptions about EM, illusion of liquidity, the politics of Latin America, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Peter Spiller is the one of the most respected value investors in markets. He is the Founder and CIO of boutique investment house CG Asset Management. Prior to founding CGAM in 2000, Peter was a partner and strategy director at Cazenove & Co Capital Management and a US equity investor at Capel Cure & Myers. Peter has managed Capital Gearing Trust plc since 1982, which has delivered annual returns of 15%. In this podcast we discuss how to measure fair value of equities, understanding impact of tech, why real rates will go negative, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Geoff Rubin is Senior Managing Director and Chief Investment Strategist at CPP Investments. The Canadian Pension Plan is one of the world’s leading pension managers with over $530bn in assets. Geoff is responsible for designing and implementing CPP Investments’ long-term investment strategy. He joined CPP Investments in 2011, at the inception of the former Total Portfolio Management department. Previously, Geoff held finance roles with Fannie Mae and Capital One Financial where he managed the global balance sheet. In this podcast we discuss fixed income as diversifier, the right way to think about risk, how to insulate against inflation shocks, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
This episode is sponsored by Amber Group
Jim Leitner serves as President of Falcon Management Corporation and CIO of Falcon Family L.P., a family office. Previously, he worked as a foreign exchange trader at Morgan Guaranty, as Chief Dealer at Bank of America International, as Vice President for proprietary trading at Shearson Lehman and as Managing Director in the Global Trading Department at Bankers Trust. Jim was a member of the Yale Investment Committee from 2004 through to 2010. In this podcast we discuss why inflation could be more persistent, thoughts on bank crises, owning rather than using options, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Lindsay Politi is Head of Inflation Strategies at One River Asset Management. Lindsay began her career at Wellington Management in Boston where she was head of Global Inflation-linked Investments. In that role she was one of the top TIPS managers by assets, managing over $10 billion in dedicated assets, with a top quintile track record for excess in her peer group. She then joined Tudor Investment Corporation in Greenwich as a discretionary macro investor, translating her inflation strategy onto a macro hedge fund platform. She then joined One River Asset Management in 2018. In this podcast we discuss reframing the bank crisis as a duration bubble, how inflation distorts time, why shelter prices are not falling faster, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Niall Ferguson is the Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and a senior faculty fellow of the Belfer Center at Harvard, where he served for twelve years as the Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History. He is the author of sixteen books. This includes the international bestseller, The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World. His most recent book is Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe. In addition to his academic work, he is the founder and managing director of Greenmantle LLC, an advisory firm. In this podcast we discuss the proper way to do historical analysis, the new conflict on AI and quantum, geological risks, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Mustafa is a rates guru and member of the research team at Macro Hive. Before this, Mustafa was the Head of Rates, FX, and Derivatives at Voya Investments, where he helped manage $40 billion of assets. Prior to that, he was a Managing Director and Head of US Rates and MBS Strategy at Deutsche Bank. And in the 1990s, he was Co-head of Asset-Liability Management at Freddie Mac, where he was responsible for managing one of the world’s largest fixed income derivatives portfolios and trading desks. In this podcast we discuss how financial institutions manage mortgages on their books, what triggered sub-prime/global financial crisis, why households and mortgage markets are safer today than 2008, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Timothy Ash is a Senior EM Sovereign Strategist at the $125bn fund, BlueBay, and is widely considered one of the leading experts on Ukraine and Russia. Prior to joining BlueBay, Tim was Head of CEEMEA Credit Strategy at Nomura International. Before this he was Head of EM Research (ex-Africa) at ICBC-Standard Bank until May 2015; Head of Emerging Markets Research at the Royal Bank of Scotland until June 2012; and Head of EMEA fixed income research at Bear Stearns International (later JPMorgan Chase) until April 2008. In this podcast we discuss what caused the collapse of the Soviet Union, why Russia didn’t have a quick victory against Ukraine, China brokering peace deal, and much more.
Follow us here for more amazing insights:
https://macrohive.com/home-prime/
https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive
https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Matsuoka-San is the Chief Economist of SBI Securities in Japan. Before that, he was the Chief Economist for Japan at Deutsche Bank. Overall, he has been involved in macroeconomic analysis at research institutions and financial institutions for the past 30 years. He is known to be one of the leading Japan economists with unique insights on structural issues. Over the years he has been highly ranked in numerous surveys including the Institutional Investor survey. In this podcast we discuss current trends in Japan inflation, outlook on BoJ actions, comparison between Prime Minister Kishida and Abe, and much more.
Click here to visit our website.
Richard founded Oldfield Partners in 2004.The firm is a value-style asset management firm with over $4bn in assets under management. Richard was Chairman of the Oxford University Investment Committee and of Oxford University Endowment from the latter’s inception in 2007 until 2014. He holds a BA Hons in History from Oxford University. His book about investing, ‘Simple But Not Easy’, was published in 2007 and new edition was published in 2022. In the podcast, we talk about the trouble with private equity and hedge funds, outlook for value investing, why smaller teams make better investment decisions, and much more.
Deborah Seligsohn is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Villanova University. Her research focuses on Chinese politics, US-China relations, and public health, energy and environmental politics in China and India. Prior to her academic career, she served as the Beijing-based Principal Advisor to the World Resources Institute’s China Energy and Climate Program from 2007 to 2012. Before that, she served as the Environment, Science, Technology and Health Counselor at the US Embassy in Beijing from 2003 to 2007. In the podcast, we talk about Deborah’s experience in China as zero COVID was lifted, what is China’s climate policy, China’s non-carbon future and much more.
Phil is the founder of Suttle Economics – a leading research consultancy. Before that, he held senior roles at Tudor, the Institute of International Finance (IIF), JP Morgan, Barclays, the New York Fed and World Bank. He was educated at Oxford University and lives in the US. In the podcast, we talk about the impact of US sectoral shocks, hard landing risks, European growth outlook, and much more.
Niels is the Managing Director of DUNN Capital (Europe) which has a track record going back over 45 years. He has been in the managed futures business for over 30 years having held management positions in and started multiple CTA firms. He is most widely known for the Top Traders Unplugged podcast.
Alan is the Founder and CEO of Archive Capital – a boutique alternative investment research firm. Prior to founding Archive Capital, he was Managing Director and a member of the investment committee at Abbey Capital. In total, he has worked in the financial markets for over 25 years at hedge funds and investment banks as a CIO, hedge fund allocator, macro strategist, and technical analyst.
This week's podcast covers the evolution of types of trend-following strategies, the importance of diversification across markets, why trend performed poorly before COVID, and much more.
Yesha Yadav is Associate Dean and Professor of Law at Vanderbilt University Law School. She is one of the world’s leading experts on financial and securities regulation. Before Vanderbilt, Yesha worked as legal counsel with the World Bank and before that she practiced regulatory and derivatives law at Clifford Chance. This week's podcast covers why the US Treasury market is fundamentally broken, the rise of HFT and algo trading, the diverges uses of Treasuries, and much more.
Andrew Revkin is one of America’s most honoured and experienced environmental journalists and the founding director of the new Initiative on Communication and Sustainability at Columbia University's Earth Institute. He’s written on climate change for more than 35 years, reporting from the North Pole to the White House, the Amazon rain forest to the Vatican - mostly for The New York Times. He has held positions at National Geographic and Discover Magazine. He’s written books on the dawn of Earth's Anthropocene age, the history of humanity’s relationship with weather and climate, the changing Arctic, global warming and the assault on the Amazon rain forest. His work has been turned into film including the triple-Golden-Globe-winning HBO film “The Burning Season,”. This week's podcast covers what Andy learned living on a boat, thoughts on nuclear energy, how views have changed on the environment and climate change, and much more.
With everyone taking a well-deserved break over the holiday season, we decided to dig through our archives to bring you our most-listened-to podcast of 2022. Back in July, we interviewed Ivy Zelman – best known for calling the top of the housing market in 2005. Turns out, she had an extremely prescient call to make in our interview too... Enjoy!
Ivy Zelman is CEO at Zelman & Associates. She co-founded Zelman & Associates in 2007 which is a leading housing research firm in the US. In 2005, Ivy called the top of the housing market. From there, she called the bottom of the housing market in January 2012. She helped best-selling writer, Michael Lewis, with research related to the mortgage crash which became a part of his best-selling book turned movie, ‘The Big Short.’ Michael wrote in the book ‘all roads led to Ivy.’ Ivy was inducted into the Institutional Investors - America Research Team’s inaugural Hall of Fame in 2012 as a result of Ivy and her team earning eleven 1st place rankings (1999 – 2004, 2006 – 2007 and 2010 – 2013). In this podcast we discuss:
- How COVID impacted housing
- Inventory trends and why they are not supportive of prices
- Why housing demand is falling
Agathe Demarais is the Global Forecasting Director of The Economist Intelligence Unit. Agathe has a special focus on trade, sanctions, European affairs, Russia and the Middle East. As The EIU’s Global Forecasting Director, Agathe oversees the publication of The EIU global outlook. Prior to joining The EIU, Agathe worked in the diplomatic corps of the French Treasury. She spent five years in Russia and three years in the Middle East, where she developed her knowledge of sanctions and policymaking. Agathe is the author of the new book ‘Backfire: How Sanctions Reshape the World Against U.S. Interests’. This week's podcast covers:
- How sanctions impact local populations
- US extra-territorial power and impact on multi-nationals
- US dollar as weapon
Shannon O'Neil is the vice president, deputy director of studies, and Nelson and David Rockefeller senior fellow for Latin America Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. She is an expert on global trade, supply chains, Mexico, Latin America, and democracy.
- Did globalisation increase that much in the past?
- Japan’s important role
- Why South America didn’t regionalise
David Rubenstein is Co-Founder and Co-Chairman of the Carlyle Group – one of the largest private equity firms in the world. Prior to forming Carlyle in 1987, David practiced law in Washington, D.C. with Shaw, Pittman, Potts & Trowbridge LLP (now Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman LLP). From 1977 to 1981, Mr. Rubenstein was Deputy Assistant to the US President for Domestic Policy. Among other philanthropic endeavours, David is Chairman of the Boards of the Council on Foreign Relations, the Economic Club of Washington, and the University of Chicago. David also serves as a Fellow of the Harvard Corporation and as Chairman of the Harvard Global Advisory Council and the Madison Council of the Library of Congress. David is a magna cum laude graduate of Duke University, where he was elected Phi Beta Kappa. Following Duke, David graduated from the University of Chicago Law School, where he was an editor of the Law Review. This week's podcast covers how private equity has evolved, common patterns of star investors, why social class matters for investors, and much more.
Fred Thiel is the CEO of Marathon Digital Holdings – one of the largest bitcoin mining companies in North America. Prior to this, Fred co-founded Sprocket, a blockchain and cryptocurrency technology and financial services company that focused on creating a single aggregated global trading marketplace. Before that, Fred served as CEO of Local Corporation, a Nasdaq-listed leader in online local search and digital media. Outside of these roles, Fred has founded and run numerous tech companies both in hardware and software. This week's podcast covers attempts at building a crypto exchange, how mining helps move to renewable energy, thoughts on FTX, and much more.
Gerard is a senior fellow with the Economics Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). He joined CSIS after nearly 11 years in the U.S. intelligence community. From 2018 to 2021, DiPippo was a deputy national intelligence officer for economic issues at the National Intelligence Council, where he led the intelligence community’s economic analysis of East Asia. He also was a senior economic analyst at the CIA focused on East Asia, South Asia, and global economic issues. In this podcast, we discuss working at the CIA, structural pressures vs zero-COVID policy, how China sees the Russia-Ukraine war, and much more.
Victoria is Professor of Finance and Head of the Finance Unit at Harvard Business School. She is also the faculty chair of the Global Initiative for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. She is a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a Research Fellow at the Center for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), a Visiting Scholar at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, and a member of the Model Validation Council at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Victoria co-heads Harvard Business School’s Private Capital Initiative and Private Equity and Venture Capital (PEVC) executive education program. She is a co-author of Patient Capital: The Challenges and Promises of Long-Term Investing and Private Equity: A Case Book. In this podcast, we discuss characteristics of long-term investing, private equity, private debt, venture capital, types of investors in these asset market, and much more.
Igor founded Alphidence Capital in 2020 and holds the positions of CEO and CIO. The fund is unusual in that it focuses on systematic macro investing. Previously Igor was the CIO for ADG Capital Management LLP from 2013 to 2019. Prior to that he spent 9 years at IPM Informed Portfolio Management AB where he was a Partner and Head of Portfolio Management and Research. Igor graduated from Leningrad Polytechnic Institute in 1986 where he obtained a Master’s degree in Computer Science. In this podcast we discuss how to model central bank reaction functions, use of valuation models, how to manage risk, and much more.
Igor founded Alphidence Capital in 2020 and holds the positions of CEO and CIO. The fund is unusual in that it focuses on systematic macro investing. Previously Igor was the CIO for ADG Capital Management LLP from 2013 to 2019. Prior to that he spent 9 years at IPM Informed Portfolio Management AB where he was a Partner and Head of Portfolio Management and Research. Igor graduated from Leningrad Polytechnic Institute in 1986 where he obtained a Master’s degree in Computer Science. In this podcast we discuss how to model central bank reaction functions, use of valuation models, how to manage risk, and much more.
Nouriel Roubini is CEO of Roubini Macro Associates and Chief Economist for Atlas Capital Team LP. He is Professor Emeritus at the Stern School of Business (New York University). He has previously served as the senior economist for international affairs on the White House Council of Economic Advisors and then the senior advisor to the undersecretary for international affairs at the U.S. Treasury Department. He’s the author of many books including his latest: Megathreats: Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future And How To Survive Them. In this podcast we discuss the implications of high debt levels, which balance sheets look worrisome, chances of World War and much more.
Nouriel Roubini is CEO of Roubini Macro Associates and Chief Economist for Atlas Capital Team LP. He is Professor Emeritus at the Stern School of Business (New York University). He has previously served as the senior economist for international affairs on the White House Council of Economic Advisors and then the senior advisor to the undersecretary for international affairs at the U.S. Treasury Department. He’s the author of many books including his latest: Megathreats: Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future And How To Survive Them. In this podcast we discuss the implications of high debt levels, which balance sheets look worrisome, chances of World War and much more.
The Doomberg team are energy gurus amongst other things. They are the anonymous publishing arm of a bespoke consulting firm providing advisory services to family offices and C-suite executives. Its principals have decades of experience across heavy industry, private equity and finance.
The Doomberg team are energy gurus amongst other things. They are the anonymous publishing arm of a bespoke consulting firm providing advisory services to family offices and C-suite executives. Its principals have decades of experience across heavy industry, private equity and finance.
Robert is a systematic futures trader, writer, and researcher. He is the author of several books on systematic trading including ‘Systematic Trading: A unique new method for designing trading and investing systems’ and the upcoming ‘Advanced Futures Trading Strategies’. Before becoming independent, Robert worked for AHL, one of the leading systematic hedge funds, which is part of the Man Group. He was responsible for the creation of AHL's fundamental global macro strategy, and then managed the funds multi-billion dollar fixed income portfolio. In this podcast, we discuss systematic vs discretionary trading, how to avoid overfitting and better back-tests, which frequency of trading works best, and much more.
Robert is a systematic futures trader, writer, and researcher. He is the author of several books on systematic trading including ‘Systematic Trading: A unique new method for designing trading and investing systems’ and the upcoming ‘Advanced Futures Trading Strategies’. Before becoming independent, Robert worked for AHL, one of the leading systematic hedge funds, which is part of the Man Group. He was responsible for the creation of AHL's fundamental global macro strategy, and then managed the funds multi-billion dollar fixed income portfolio. In this podcast, we discuss systematic vs discretionary trading, how to avoid overfitting and better back-tests, which frequency of trading works best, and much more.
Dave is President and CIO of KC3 Capital Management. Before that, he was Head of Macro Trading NY at Moore Capital and Managing Director in FX and Macro Trading at SAC Capital. Prior to his buy-side roles, Dave had various senior head of sales roles at Credit Suisse and JP Morgan. In this podcast we discuss:
1) Living through an investment bank merger. 2) The challenges of retaining talent at banks. 3) Moving from the sell-side to the buy-side (hedge funds). 4) What makes Louis Bacon and Moore Capital so successful. 5) The alpha of discretionary trading over quants. 6) The discipline of writing every day when trading markets. 7) How to manage your personal portfolio. 8) The value of allocating to external managers rather than just trading yourself. 8) Favourite sectors. 9) Private equity vs venture capital. 10) How to manage drawdowns. 11) Books mentioned: The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest (Chancellor), 21st Century Monetary Policy (Bernanke), The Panic of 1907 (Bruner), We Were Soldiers Once...And Young (Galloway), The Man Who Solved the Market (Zuckerman), Efficiently Inefficient (Pedersen), The Lords of Easy Money (Leonard).
Dave is President and CIO of KC3 Capital Management. Before that, he was Head of Macro Trading NY at Moore Capital and Managing Director in FX and Macro Trading at SAC Capital. Prior to his buy-side roles, Dave had various senior head of sales roles at Credit Suisse and JP Morgan. In this podcast we discuss:
1) Living through an investment bank merger. 2) The challenges of retaining talent at banks. 3) Moving from the sell-side to the buy-side (hedge funds). 4) What makes Louis Bacon and Moore Capital so successful. 5) The alpha of discretionary trading over quants. 6) The discipline of writing every day when trading markets. 7) How to manage your personal portfolio. 8) The value of allocating to external managers rather than just trading yourself. 8) Favourite sectors. 9) Private equity vs venture capital. 10) How to manage drawdowns. 11) Books mentioned: The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest (Chancellor), 21st Century Monetary Policy (Bernanke), The Panic of 1907 (Bruner), We Were Soldiers Once...And Young (Galloway), The Man Who Solved the Market (Zuckerman), Efficiently Inefficient (Pedersen), The Lords of Easy Money (Leonard).
Randy is co-head of senior lending and oversees senior lending origination and capital markets for Churchill Asset Management, which has $40bn of committed capital. Randy is widely credited with developing loan syndications for middle market companies. Prior to joining the firm, Randy served as a senior managing director and head of capital markets and indirect origination at Churchill Financial. Before that, he worked as managing director and head of leveraged finance syndication for BNP Paribas. He spent 15 years at JP Morgan Chase in corporate banking and loan syndications, where he originated, structured and syndicated leveraged loans. In this podcast we discuss:
1) Evolution of private credit markets. 2) Comparison to high-yield bonds and syndicated loans. 3) Why banks want to off-load loans. 4) Types of loans that make up private credit. 5) How buyers of private credit monitor loans. 6) Typical size of loans. 7) How to protect against recession risks. 8) How Fed hikes have affected private credit. 9) Role of private equity. 10) Are private markets a bubble? 11)Books that Randy mentioned: The Waste Land (TS Eliot), Eliot After The Waste Land (Crawford) , O Jerusalem! (Collins).
Randy is co-head of senior lending and oversees senior lending origination and capital markets for Churchill Asset Management, which has $40bn of committed capital. Randy is widely credited with developing loan syndications for middle market companies. Prior to joining the firm, Randy served as a senior managing director and head of capital markets and indirect origination at Churchill Financial. Before that, he worked as managing director and head of leveraged finance syndication for BNP Paribas. He spent 15 years at JP Morgan Chase in corporate banking and loan syndications, where he originated, structured and syndicated leveraged loans. In this podcast we discuss:
1) Evolution of private credit markets. 2) Comparison to high-yield bonds and syndicated loans. 3) Why banks want to off-load loans. 4) Types of loans that make up private credit. 5) How buyers of private credit monitor loans. 6) Typical size of loans. 7) How to protect against recession risks. 8) How Fed hikes have affected private credit. 9) Role of private equity. 10) Are private markets a bubble? 11)Books that Randy mentioned: The Waste Land (TS Eliot), Eliot After The Waste Land (Crawford) , O Jerusalem! (Collins).
Howard Davies is the Chairman of the Board of Directors of Natwest Group. Previously, he was the Director of the London School of Economics (LSE) from 2003 until 2011. Prior to this appointment he was chairman of the UK Financial Services Authority from 1997 to 2003. From 1995 to 1997 he was Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, after three years as the Director General of the Confederation of British Industry. Earlier in his career he worked in the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, the Treasury, McKinsey and Co, and as Controller of the Audit Commission. In this podcast we discuss:
1) Whether the UK should separate finance and economy minister roles. 2) The competition between the Chancellor and Prime Minister. 3) Why UK productivity has been low. 4) The impact of Bank of England independence for role of Chancellor. 5) How Gordon Brown reduced poverty. 6) Why taxes are so hard to change in the UK. 7) Why Alistair Darling was under-rated as Chancellor. 8) The problem with George Osbourne’s austerity drive. 9) The role of Chancellor in Scottish and EU referendums. 10) The challenge for the current Chancellor in targeting growth. 11) Whether the UK Treasury attracts the right talent.
Howard Davies is the Chairman of the Board of Directors of Natwest Group. Previously, he was the Director of the London School of Economics (LSE) from 2003 until 2011. Prior to this appointment he was chairman of the UK Financial Services Authority from 1997 to 2003. From 1995 to 1997 he was Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, after three years as the Director General of the Confederation of British Industry. Earlier in his career he worked in the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, the Treasury, McKinsey and Co, and as Controller of the Audit Commission. In this podcast we discuss:
1) Whether the UK should separate finance and economy minister roles. 2) The competition between the Chancellor and Prime Minister. 3) Why UK productivity has been low. 4) The impact of Bank of England independence for role of Chancellor. 5) How Gordon Brown reduced poverty. 6) Why taxes are so hard to change in the UK. 7) Why Alistair Darling was under-rated as Chancellor. 8) The problem with George Osbourne’s austerity drive. 9) The role of Chancellor in Scottish and EU referendums. 10) The challenge for the current Chancellor in targeting growth. 11) Whether the UK Treasury attracts the right talent.
Sam is a tutor of politics and international relations at the University of Oxford, and an Associate Fellow at the British defence think tank, the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). He contributes regularly to media outlets, such as Foreign Policy, the Washington Post, Newsweek, and Al-Monitor, and think tanks, such as the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Middle East Institute. In this podcast we discuss:
1) What was behind Ukraine’s recent counter-offensive win. 2) Why the Russian army is weaker than expected. 3) Why the counter-offensive started in September. 4) How the West is supporting Ukraine. 5) How internal dissent within the West could reduce support. 6) Whether Russia has any gas leverage left with Europe. 7) Status of the new war front between Armenia and Azerbaijan. 8) Whether Putin’s popularity suffered. 9) How the main players around Putin are faring. 10) Whether Ukraine aims to recapture the Donbas and Crimea. 11) Whether there are peace talks. 12) Points of escalation from Russia. 12) Lessons from Russia-Chechnya wars.
Sam is a tutor of politics and international relations at the University of Oxford, and an Associate Fellow at the British defence think tank, the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). He contributes regularly to media outlets, such as Foreign Policy, the Washington Post, Newsweek, and Al-Monitor, and think tanks, such as the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Middle East Institute. In this podcast we discuss:
1) What was behind Ukraine’s recent counter-offensive win. 2) Why the Russian army is weaker than expected. 3) Why the counter-offensive started in September. 4) How the West is supporting Ukraine. 5) How internal dissent within the West could reduce support. 6) Whether Russia has any gas leverage left with Europe. 7) Status of the new war front between Armenia and Azerbaijan. 8) Whether Putin’s popularity suffered. 9) How the main players around Putin are faring. 10) Whether Ukraine aims to recapture the Donbas and Crimea. 11) Whether there are peace talks. 12) Points of escalation from Russia. 12) Lessons from Russia-Chechnya wars.
Artem has over 10 years of finance experience in food, agriculture, and farmland. He holds an MBA from The Wharton School, and a BA and MA in Economics from the Higher School of Economics. Prior to founding FarmTogether, Artem was employee #1 and CFO/VP of Operations at Full Harvest Technologies, a now post-Series A B2B platform for buying and selling produce. He previously worked at Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan, Sprott Resource Holdings, E&Y and PwC. In this podcast we discuss types of investable farmland, whether farmland provides an inflation hedge, leverage levels in farmland, and much more.
Artem has over 10 years of finance experience in food, agriculture, and farmland. He holds an MBA from The Wharton School, and a BA and MA in Economics from the Higher School of Economics. Prior to founding FarmTogether, Artem was employee #1 and CFO/VP of Operations at Full Harvest Technologies, a now post-Series A B2B platform for buying and selling produce. He previously worked at Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan, Sprott Resource Holdings, E&Y and PwC. In this podcast we discuss types of investable farmland, whether farmland provides an inflation hedge, leverage levels in farmland, and much more.
Karl is Fellow of the Royal Society of Arts, and Mentor at Creative Destruction Labs (Said Business School, University of Oxford). He began his career at JPMorgan trading fixed income. In 1996, Karl oversaw Banco Santander's Global Asset-Liability activities in Madrid. In 2001, he returned to London as Global Head of FX for HSBC Asset Management. From 2003, he held Senior Portfolio Manager roles at Brevan Howard, UBS O'Connor, Deutsche Bank's Cross Asset Trading group. In 2012 he joined Barclays Bank Treasury in London as Head of Euro Liquidity Management. In 2017 he joined LPP, Local Pensions Partnership, where he managed the Fixed Income portfolio. In 2018, he was a Participant at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Karl holds two degrees; Physics from Imperial College, London and Molecular Biophysics from University College, University of Oxford. In this podcast we discuss:
1) Capital-ism vs income-ism. 2) The demographic problem. 3) Importance of the scientific method. 4) The end of mean reversion. 5) Investment uncertainty vs risk. 6) The risk of correlation changes. 7) How today’s crises are different to GFC. 8) A coming asset crisis. 9) Phase transitions. 10) Central bank, real economy and political regime changes. 11) What the performance of the 60:40 portfolio tells us. 12) Solving for lower future market returns. 13) Demographic – climate change – machine learning shocks. 14) The failure of factor investing. 15) Have a plan A, B and C. 16) Career risk. 17) Books mentioned: The (Mis)Behaviour of Markets (Mandelbrot), The Upside of Down (Homer-Dixon), The Man Who Mistook His Wife for a Hat (Sacks)
James Fok is a veteran financial and strategic advisor to corporations and governments. He served as a senior executive at Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) from 2012 until 2021. While there, he played a major role in a number of landmark financial markets initiatives, including the launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect programme (2014), Bond Connect (2017) and the Hong Kong market's Listing Reforms (2018). Prior to HKEX, Fok worked as an investment banker in both Europe and Asia, specialising in the financial services sector. James is the author of the recently published book: Financial Cold War: A View of Sino-US Relations from the Financial Markets (2021). In this podcast we discuss:
1) The impact of the global financial crisis on the US and China. 2) How US-China relations have shifted since the Second World War. 3) China’s demographic challenge. 4) China dynastic history and what it tells us about China. 5) The need for China capital market reforms. 6) Reliance of China on the US dollar financial system. 7) The impact of Russia sanctions. 8) Costs to the US of dollar dominance. 9) Why Cold War analogies are incorrect. 10) How China’s reliance on food and energy imports affects its view on US containment policies. 11) Potential reforms to reduce US-China tensions. 12) The role of HK as a bridge between East and West. 13) Books that influenced James: The Quiet American (Greene) and Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China (Vogel).
Cameron Crise is a macro strategist at Bloomberg, where he writes the Macro Man column and posts on the Markets Live blog. Previously, he was a global macro portfolio manager at Graham Capital in Connecticut and Nylon Capital in London. Earlier in his career, he was a currency portfolio manager and economist for several European asset management firms and held a variety of foreign exchange roles at UBS. He is a graduate of Duke University with a degree in public policy studies and history. In this podcast we discuss:
1) Lessons from working at hedge funds. 2) Where are we in the US growth cycle? 3) Inflation path. 4) How high will the Fed hike? 5) Will bond yields reach new highs? 6) The problem with the Fed’s quantitative tightening (QT) programme. 7) Overnight moves in stock markets. 8) Chances of deeper equity correction. 9) Chances of larger financial crisis. 10) Thoughts on China and Europe. 11) Equity earnings. 12) Books mentioned: Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (Lefevre), Market Wizards (Schwager) , Manias, Panics, and Crashes (Kindleberger) and Devil Take the Hindmost (Chancellor).
Denise Shull is the Founder and CEO of ReThink. In that role, she uses neuroscience and modern psychoanalysis to help clients become successful in investing, trading, and leading teams. She has consulted on the development of Showtime’s BILLIONS, coached Olympic champions, and often appears on CNBC, Bloomberg and in the Wall Street Journal. Before ReThink, Denise worked in finance. She started at one of the first electronic trading firms in Chicago, then traded at Schonfeld Securities before she ran her own desk at Sharpe Capital. Denise holds a Master of Arts from the University of Chicago. Her thesis was cited in 2013 as one of the first papers written about neuropsychoanalysis. In this podcast we discuss:
1) Why understanding perception, judgment and decision making matters. 2) How your unconscious affects your decision making. 3) The particular challenge of trading and investing in markets. 4) The role of emotions and why we can’t ignore them. 5) Differences between emotions and impulse. 6) Understanding conviction levels. 7) Using intuition over impulse. 8) How to incorporate emotions into your dataset. 9) Traits of successful traders. 10) How to set up a hedge fund. 11) Books that influenced Denise: Seven and a Half Lessons About the Brain (Feldman Barret), and The Drama of the Gifted Child (Miller).
Diego is Managing Partner at $1.8b Quadriga Asset Managers. Prior to joining Quadriga in Madrid in 2017, Diego worked in London, New York, and Singapore for two decades and held senior leadership roles across macro commodity markets at JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, BlueCrest Capital, Dymon Asia, and Old Mutual Global Investors. Diego is best-selling co-author of ‘The Energy World is Flat’ (Wiley, 2014) and author of ‘The Anti-Bubbles’ (BEP, 2017). Diego has a MS Mineral Economics from Colorado School of Mines, MS Petroleum Economics and Management by the French Institute of Petroleum in Paris, and MS Mining and Petroleum Engineering by the Madrid Polytechnic School of Mines. In this podcast we discuss the definition of an ‘anti-bubble’, why inflation is higher than you think, the right asset allocation for stagflation, and much more.
Diego is Managing Partner at $1.8b Quadriga Asset Managers. Prior to joining Quadriga in Madrid in 2017, Diego worked in London, New York, and Singapore for two decades and held senior leadership roles across macro commodity markets at JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, BlueCrest Capital, Dymon Asia, and Old Mutual Global Investors. Diego is best-selling co-author of ‘The Energy World is Flat’ (Wiley, 2014) and author of ‘The Anti-Bubbles’ (BEP, 2017). Diego has a MS Mineral Economics from Colorado School of Mines, MS Petroleum Economics and Management by the French Institute of Petroleum in Paris, and MS Mining and Petroleum Engineering by the Madrid Polytechnic School of Mines. In this podcast we discuss the definition of an ‘anti-bubble’, why inflation is higher than you think, the right asset allocation for stagflation, and much more.
Lindsay Politi is Head of Inflation Strategies at One River Asset Management. Lindsay began her career at Wellington Management in Boston where she was head of Global Inflation-linked Investments. In that role she was one of the top TIPS managers by assets, managing over $10 billion in dedicated assets, with a top quintile track record for excess in her peer group. She then joined Tudor Investment Corporation in Greenwich as a discretionary macro investor, translating her inflation strategy onto a macro hedge fund platform. She then joined One River Asset Management in 2018. In this podcast we discuss:
1) The short-, medium- and long-term drivers of inflation. 2) Why near-term inflation could still rise even with growing recession fears. 3) Why changes in interest rates could matter more than the levels of interest rates. 4) How housing affects inflation. 5) Are there parallels to the 1970s? 6) Why inflation volatility matters. 7) Will the Fed cut rates in 2023? 8) Why the TIPs market may not give an accurate measure of long-term inflation. 9) The income potential of TIPs bonds. 10) The case of low inflation in Japan. 11) Books mentioned: Slouching Toward Utopia (DeLong), The Dawn of Everything (Graeber, Wengrow), Amusing Ourselves to Death (Postman).
Ivy Zelman is CEO at Zelman & Associates. She co-founded Zelman & Associates in 2007 which is a leading housing research firm in the US. In 2005, Ivy called the top of the housing market. From there, she called the bottom of the housing market in January 2012. She helped best-selling writer, Michael Lewis, with research related to the mortgage crash which became a part of his best-selling book turned movie, ‘The Big Short.’ Michael wrote in the book ‘all roads led to Ivy.’ Ivy was inducted into the Institutional Investors - America Research Team’s inaugural Hall of Fame in 2012 as a result of Ivy and her team earning eleven 1st place rankings (1999 – 2004, 2006 – 2007 and 2010 – 2013). In this podcast we discuss:
1) How COVID impacted housing. 2) Inventory trends and why they are not supportive of prices. 3) Why housing demand is falling. 4) The problem with rising mortgage rates. 5) The role of investors in US residential housing. 6) The Airbnb Effect. 7) Why house prices will fall in 2023 and 2024. 8) Changes in mortgage products since 2008. 9) The large backlog of housing supply. 10) Understanding the build to rent market. 11) Demographic issues. 12) Affordability in rental properties. 13) Regional outlook including New York. 14) Books mentioned: The Psychology of Money (Housel), The Algebra of Happiness (Galloway), Gimme Shelter (Zelman).
Matsuoka-San is the Chief Economist of SBI Securities in Japan. Before that, he was the Chief Economist for Japan at Deutsche Bank. Overall, he has been involved in macroeconomic analysis at research institutions and financial institutions for the past 30 years. He is known to be one of the leading Japan economists with unique insights on structural issues. Over the years he has been highly ranked in numerous surveys including the Institutional Investor survey. In this podcast we discuss:
1) Former Prime Minister Abe’s legacy in Japan. 2) The long-term impact of COVID on the global economy. 3) The demise of capitalism. 4) Why nominal GDP targeting is better than inflation targeting. 5) Measuring financial stress and why it is rising. 6) Which other countries are ‘Japanising’. 7) The current state of Japanese growth. 8) How high can Japanese inflation go? 9) Will the BoJ exit yield curve control (YCC)? 10) Is a weak yen a problem for Japan? 11) What drives Japanese bond yields. 12) Books that influenced Matsuoka-San: The Structure of Scientific Revolutions (Kuhn).
Boris is one of the top macro thinkers in the market. He is a managing director at Goldman Sachs. Before GS, he was partner and portfolio manager at Rokos Capital Management, Fortress and Brevan Howard. Boris started his career on the sell-side which included working at UBS and Dresdner. Boris will be giving his personal opinions and not those of Goldman Sachs or any other organisations he is affiliated to. In this podcast, we discuss:
1) Increased volatility in the business cycle. 2) How close are we to market crunch point. 3) Three most likely scenarios for the Fed, inflation, and recession. 4) Main street vs Wall Street liquidity. 5) How to understand money supply (M2). 6) How will bonds and equities perform? 7) Which EM markets will perform or not? 8) What typically happens to EM during recessions. 9) The chances of a China stimulus.
This episode is sponsored by Amber Group
Marion is a senior economist at Deutsche Bank in London and a lecturer at Harvard University. She has extensive private sector, public policy, and monetary policy experience, including at the European Commission, the International Monetary Fund, the Luxembourg Central Bank, and Barclays. She received first prize from the American Society of Actuaries, Revue Banque nominated her as a rising star in finance, and Business Insider named her a cryptocurrency mastermind. Laboure holds a bachelor’s degree from Université Paris Dauphine, a master’s degree from the London School of Economics and Political Science, and a Doctorate of Philosophy from the Ecole normale supérieure in Paris. On this podcast we discussed:
1) Experience of working for the European Commission. 2) How fintech is impacting developing countries. 3) The financial challenges of millennials. 4) The problem of financial literacy amongst retail investors. 5) Why are crypto markets so volatile. 6) The impact of central bank liquidity on crypto. 7) Crypto: payment vs digital gold. 8) The rise of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). 9) Will CBDC displace banks? 10) Can crypto displace the fiat financial system? 11) Books that influenced Marion: The Curse of Cash (Rogoff), The End of Alchemy (King).
Ray is the Chief Investment Officer of Fixed Income at Pictet Asset Management. He joined Pictet in 2010 as Head of Total Return Fixed Income, before becoming CIO in 2017 and an Equity Partner in 2018. Before joining Pictet, Raymond was head of dollar and euro credit investments at Swiss Re Asset Management. Before that, he worked for Bank Brussels Lambert (ING) trading US Credit. He has traded credit across all major geographies and began his career at ING Barings in Emerging Markets in 1997. Raymond holds a Bachelor's in Economics from the London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) and Master's in Contemporary Theology in the Catholic Tradition from Heythrop College, University of London. On this podcast we discussed:
1) Why investing globally gives you an edge. 2) The importance of trading across the capital structure of companies. 3) Why price matters. 4) Making illiquidity your friend. 5) What investors are currently missing – the credit cycle. 6) How to manage an investment team. 7) Nurture vs narcissism. 8) What to look for in new hires. 9) The importance of managing the exit process well. 10) When trading, knowing when to cut. 11) Understanding that it’s easier to buy and harder to sell. 12) Books that influenced Ray: Brave New World (Huxley), Liar’s Poker (Lewis), The New Encyclopedia of Modern Bodybuilding (Schwarzenegger).
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is a Senior Macro Strategist for Macro Hive based in Los Angeles. She has been producing alpha-generating trade ideas in FX and rates in EM and G10 at established and startup macro hedge funds in the US since 2011, including at Bridgewater. She has also produced in-depth analysis of central banks policies and procedures drawing on her experience at the New York Fed, the IMF and the World Bank as well as on the buy- and sell-side. Before moving to the US, she covered Asian and global EMs at Barclays capital, ABN AMRO and RBS from Singapore. She holds a PhD in economics from the London School of Economics. In this podcast we discuss:
1) How the Fed is setting policy based on the latest inflation print. 2) Why the Fed has lost its bearings in its inflation strategy. 3) Why a terminal Fed Funds Rate around 8% is likely. 4) Why the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey tells us more about inflation than growth. 5) Why the Fed could struggle to slow the economy. 6) What investors should look out for. 7) Why higher demand for consumer durables could be the new normal. 8) Whether the US will go into recession in 2023
You can follow Dominque’s work here
Bert is a macro strategist at Macro Hive, specialising in Emerging Markets strategy. Between 2009 and 2017, he was co-head of EM strategy with a focus on fixed income and currencies at JP Morgan. He held other senior research roles at Bank of America and UBS in the 2000s. Bert has lived in all time zones, from Latin America and the US via Europe to Asia. On this podcast we discussed: 1) How the Fed and de-globalisation impacts EM. 2) Democratic commodity EM vs autocratic manufacturing EM. 3) China’s COVID policy and what it means for macro. 4) Are investors too pessimistic on China growth? 5) China’s new types of stimulus. 6) Chinese yuan weakness and tariffs. 7) China/Taiwan risks. 8) Modi’s performance as India PM. 9) India’s inflation challenge. 10) Flows from China to India. 11) Brazil’s commodity play. 12) Leftist politics in Latin America. 13) Latam’s inflation sensitivity
Thorsten spent twenty years trading equity derivatives and was a partner at Bear Stearns. He was also head of equity derivatives at Panmure Gordan and Head of Trading Warrants and Structured Products at WestLB. Currently, he educates and lectures on derivative markets.
On this podcast we discussed a simple explanation of options, how to understand volatility, and how to trade VIX. He also gave his views on skew and the volatility smile, how to manage your options position, understanding the greeks – delta, gamma, theta, and the different players in the options market. Finally, on a more personal note, Thorsten shared the books that influenced him the most: Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (Lefvre), and Atlas Shrugged (Rand).
Stéphane is CEO and Co-Founder of FRNT Financial – a crypto-focused investment bank. He began his capital markets career working in the Equity Products group on the trading floor at BMO Capital Markets (BMO) in 2010 as a Cash Equity Sales Trader. He eventually transitioned into BMO’s hedge fund sales trading group and added coverage of equity options and equity swaps. In 2018, Stéphane left BMO to start FRNT Financial. In August 2019, Stéphane was elected Chairman of the Canadian Security Traders Association (CSTA) following a term as Vice Chairman. On this podcast we discussed use cases for crypto, why the differences between Ethereum and bitcoin are exaggerated, what to look out for when investing in crypto, and much more.
Jay spent 40 years in international finance, including at Elliot Management and Lehmans. His primary focus was on distressed EM sovereign debt. He was central to the historic 15-year fight to recover billions of dollars in defaulted Argentine debt. That campaign, which included the court-approved seizure of an Argentinian Navy ship in Ghana with 200 people aboard in 2012, reached a successful conclusion in 2016. The Wall Street Journal reported that the settlement was worth $2.4 billion, a gain of roughly 10 to 15 times the original investment. The Financial Times said the settlement ‘is seen as one of the greatest hedge fund trades’ in history. Jay has now switched to writing with his debut novel, about dark money and global politics, Undermoney. On this podcast we discussed how to sue a country, how countries like Russia evade sanctions, how illicit money is moved through central banks, and much more.
Mike is the Chief Executive Officer of ReSolve Global Asset Management. He has over 29 years of experience in investment management and is responsible for investment decisions, coaching, and strategic leadership. He has co-authored the book Adaptive Asset Allocation: Dynamic Global Portfolios to Profit in Good Times – and Bad. Before his investment career, Mike played professional football. In this podcast, we discussed how to invest in different stages of the business cycle, whether valuations matter, the benefits of machine learning and much more.
This podcast is sponsored by Masterworks, the first platform for buying and selling shares representing an investment in iconic artworks. They are making it possible to invest in multimillion-dollar works from artists like Banksy, Kaws, Basquiat, and many more. Tymofiy Mylovanov is the President of the Kyiv School of Economics, advisor to Ukrainian President Zelensky and former Ukrainian Minister of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture. He is currently focused on humanitarian work for Ukraine. In the podcast, we talk about the real reason for Russia’s invasion, the three levers of economic power Russia has over the world, the state of the Russian army compared to Soviet times, and much more.
Phil is the founder of Suttle Economics – a leading research consultancy. Before that, he held senior roles at Tudor, the Institute of International Finance (IIF), JP Morgan, Barclays, the New York Fed and World Bank. He was educated at Oxford University and lives in the US. In the podcast, we talk about why recession risks are overstated, whether real earnings will increase, energy investment and higher inventories as the new normal, and so much more.
John is a commodity guru amongst other things. He has 25 years of experience in international finance. He has served as a Managing Director for bulge-bracket investment banks on both sides of the Atlantic in research, strategy, asset allocation, and product development roles, including at Deutsche Bank and Lehman Brothers. He has advised some of the world’s largest institutional and private investors in matters ranging from wealth preservation to enhancing returns through a wide variety of innovative strategies, and he has been ranked the #1 Investment Strategist by Institutional Investor magazine. His past publications include his popular Amphora Report investment newsletter and The Golden Revolution (John Wiley and Sons, 2012), and The Golden Revolution, Revisited In this podcast we discuss why the inflation pressures will remain, why the dollar is vulnerable, risks of escalating global conflicts, and much more.
Dan Zwirn is the Co-Founder, CEO, and CIO of Arena Investors LP. Arena is a $3.4 billion global investment firm focusing on special situations asset and credit investments in corporates, real estate, structured finance, and corporate securities. Before founding Arena in 2015, between 2009 and 2015, Dan founded and/or led several specialty finance enterprises including Applied Data Finance (a consumer finance company), North Mill Capital (an asset-based lender), and Lantern Endowment Partners (an investment fund). In 2001, while a founder of the Special Opportunities Group at Highbridge Capital Management, Dan, along with Highbridge, co-founded D.B. Zwirn & Co., a global special situations firm, which grew into a $6 billion enterprise. In this podcast we discuss, the problem with niche investors, why global bottom-up investing works, the big risks for the next 12 months, and much more.
This podcast is sponsored by Masterworks, the first platform for buying and selling shares representing an investment in iconic artworks. They are making it possible to invest in multimillion-dollar works from artists like Banksy, Kaws, Basquiat, and many more. Josh Young is the Chief Investment Officer and Founder of Bison Interests – an investment firm that focuses on the publicly traded oil and gas sector. He has over 15 years of experience in investment management, 10 of which were focused on publicly-traded oil and gas securities. Josh became Chairman of the Board of RMP Energy in 2017. After refreshing the board and management team and rebranding the company (Iron Bridge Resources), it was bought out at a 78% premium in 2018. Before this, Josh was a management consultant to Fortune 500 companies and private equity firms, and then an investment analyst at a private equity fund. Josh worked as an energy investment analyst for a multi-billion-dollar, single family office. In this podcast we discuss:
Understanding the energy sector, the cost of drilling, impact of ESG on the energy sector, and why oil input isn’t higher. He also discussed the structural supply issues for the energy sector, the investment needs to maintain supply, the regulatory pressures on supply, if the Middle East can step up supply, and the best to get exposure to energy. On a more personal note he also revealed the books that influenced him the most: The First Billion Is the Hardest (Pickens) and Fooling Some of the People All of the Time (Einhorn).
Denise Shull is the Founder and CEO of ReThink. In that role, she uses neuroscience and modern psychoanalysis to help clients become successful in investing, trading, and leading teams. She has consulted on the development of Showtime’s BILLIONS, coached Olympic champions, and often appears on CNBC, Bloomberg and in the Wall Street Journal. Before ReThink, Denise worked in finance. She started at one of the first electronic trading firms in Chicago, then traded at Schonfeld Securities before she ran her own desk at Sharpe Capital. Denise holds a Master of Arts from the University of Chicago. Her thesis was cited in 2013 as one of the first papers written about neuropsychoanalysis. In this podcast we discuss: Why understanding perception, judgment and decision-making matters, how your unconscious affects your decision making, the particular challenge of trading and investing in markets, the role of emotions and why we can’t ignore them, and the difference between emotions and impulse. She further discussed how to understand conviction levels, using intuition over impulse, how to incorporate emotions into your dataset, traits of successful traders, and how to set up a hedge fund. On the more personal side she revealed the books that influenced her the most: Seven and a Half Lessons About the Brain (Feldman Barret), and The Drama of the Gifted Child (Miller).
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is a macro strategist for Macro Hive based in Los Angeles. She has been producing alpha generating trade ideas in FX and rates in EM and G10 at established and startup macro hedge funds in the US since 2011, including at Bridgewater. She has also produced in depth analysis of central banks policies and procedures drawing on her experience at the New York Fed, the IMF and the World Bank as well as on the buy and sell side. Before moving to the US, she covered Asian and global EMs at Barclays capital, ABN AMRO and RBS from Singapore. She holds a PhD in economics from the London School of Economics. In this podcast we discuss:
Why Powell and the Fed reacted late to inflation, comparison to Volker period, if the Fed has a framework, and how strong the Fed Board is. She further discussed why the US labour market is weaker than most think, why structural inflation is still low, why the US will enter a recession, unintended consequences of Russia-Ukraine War, and much more.
This podcast is sponsored by Masterworks, the first platform for buying and selling shares representing an investment in iconic artworks. They are making it possible to invest in multimillion-dollar works from artists like Banksy, Kaws, Basquiat, and many more. Andy Constan has spent the past 33 years investing and trading global markets. He’s worked at leading hedge funds Bridgewater Associates and Brevan Howard as Chief Strategist. Andy started his career at Salomon Brothers. He is the founder of Damped Spring Advisors. In this podcast we discuss: What Andy learned from Bridgewater and Brevan Howard, setting up all-weather portfolios, the problem with bonds, and how to outperform the market. Andy further talked about using flow and position data and macro news, the impact of mortgage convexity hedging on bonds, what is next for the Fed, and whether equities are overvalued. Finally, he discussed his views on inflation, his favourite trades, and the books that influenced him the most: Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (Lefevre), The Handbook of Fixed Income Securities (Fabozzi), Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives (Hull), Principles: Life and Work (Dalio) and Liar’s Poker (Lewis).
For great macro and investment insights from some of the world's most seasoned researchers, visit macrohive.com.
Timothy is a Senior EM Sovereign Strategist at the $125bn fund, BlueBay, and is widely considered one of the leading experts on Ukraine and Russia. Prior to joining BlueBay, Tim was Head of CEEMEA Credit Strategy at Nomura International. Before this he was Head of EM Research (ex-Africa) at ICBC-Standard Bank until May 2015; Head of Emerging Markets Research at the Royal Bank of Scotland until June 2012; and Head of EMEA fixed income research at Bear Stearns International (later JPMorgan Chase) until April 2008. In this podcast we discuss:
Why Timothy has been expecting a larger conflict since 2015, western exposure to Russia and ESG, Putin’s motivations, and why NATO expansion is not the core issue. He also talked about the scale of the sanctions, chances of regime change in Russia, why the conflict won’t end soon, how China fits into the picture, and why this is a globally systemic event.
Jurrien is the director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments. Fidelity is the one of the largest asset managers in the world. He is part of Fidelity’s Global Asset Allocation group, where he specialises in asset allocation and global macro strategy. He has held various other roles at Fidelity, including director of market research and technical research analyst. He also co-managed Fidelity Global Strategies Fund from 2007 to 2014. Before joining Fidelity in 1995, Jurrien was a vice president in the Fixed Income group at ABN AMRO Capital markets in New York. He has been in the financial industry since 1985. In this podcast we discuss:
How the Russia/Ukraine conflict will impact markets, the importance of energy prices, whether non-US stocks can outperform, and current parallels to the late 1960s. Jurrien also discussed the case for S&P500 at 8000, why the 1970s parallels could be overstated, how to fit crypto into your portfolio, and the difference between bitcoin and the rest. Finally, Jurrien revealed the books that influenced him the most: Going to Pieces Without Falling Apart (Epstein) and The Art of Loving (Fromm).
For great macro and investment insights from some of the world's most seasoned researchers, visit macrohive.com
This podcast is sponsored by Masterworks, the first platform for buying and selling shares representing an investment in iconic artworks. They are making it possible to invest in multimillion-dollar works from artists like Banksy, Kaws, Basquiat, and many more. John is the Kenneth C. Griffin Distinguished Service Professor in Economics at the University of Chicago. His new book is The Voltage Effect: How to Make Good Ideas Great and Great Ideas Scale. He has worked with firms such as Lyft, Uber, Citadel and several non-profits. His academic research includes more than 200 peer-reviewed journal articles and several published books. John was elected a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in 2011 and a fellow of the Econometric Society in 2015. He is a current editor of the Journal of Political Economy. In this podcast we discuss: The importance of field experiments and scaling in economics, what John learned at Uber, and the optimal way to get tips. He also discussed how to avoid false positives, thinking about spillovers and network effects, avoiding the cost trap, and how to incentivize scaling. On a more personal side, John revealed the books that influenced him the most: Wealth of Nations (Smith), The Theory of Moral Sentiments (Smith), Anna Karenina (Tolstoy), Principles of Economics (Marshall), Economics (Samuelson), Elementary Principles of Economics (Fisher).
Greg is a Special Writer at The Wall Street Journal. He is the author of A Shot to Save the World: The Inside Story of the Life-or-Death Race for a COVID-19 Vaccine. The book has been optioned by HBO for a series from Academy Award winning director Adam McKay. Greg is also the author of the bestseller: The Man Who Solved the Market: How Jim Simons Launched a Quant Revolution. In this podcast we discuss:
Why Big Pharma did not develop the COVID vaccine, how the vaccine was developed so quickly, key players in vaccine development, and what mRNA and adenovirus vaccines are. Greg also gave his views on the outlook of vaccine breakthroughs for other diseases, what made Jim Simons the top investor of all-time, and the importance of culture. On a personal note, Greg shared the books that influenced him most: Den of Thieves (Stewart) , Liar’s Poker (Lewis), Barbarians at the Gate (Burrough) and Indecent Exposure (McClintick).
Tania Reif is Founder and CIO of Senda Digital Assets. Prior to her cryptocurrency focus she built her investment pedigree at top macro hedge-funds including Soros Fund Management, Laurion Capital, Citadel and Alphadyne Asset Management. She was profiled in the 50 Leading Women in Hedge Funds 2017 survey by The Hedge Fund Journal. Her career spans public policy beginnings at the International Monetary Fund and experience in the banking industry at Citgroup’s Economic and Market Analysis team. She holds a PhD in Economics with Distinction from Columbia University where she earned the Jagdish Bhagwati International Economics Award for her work in currency dynamics. In this podcast we discuss:
Lessons learned from macro investing, why you should leave macro for crypto, what drives crypto prices, and understanding the unique aspects of crypto. She also talks about crypto valuations, what the crypto market cap tells us, where yields come from in DeFi, the future of the metaverse, and lessons in launching a crypto fund.
Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf) is the author of The Macro Compass, a financial newsletter providing educational macroeconomic insights & actionable investment ideas. Previously, he was the head of a $20 bn Investment Portfolio for a large European bank. In this podcast we discuss: How money is created, where the credit cycle is right now, why the European growth cycle looks better than the US, and ECB hikes. On trades, Alf discussed long EUR/USD and long NASDAQ/short Russell trades and how asset swap trades work. We also talked about Draghi and Italian risks, China’s credit cycle turn, and long China real estate trade. Finally, Alf revealed his favourite trade - US 2s10s flatteners, and the books that influenced him the most: Pragmatic Capitalism (Roche), Inside the House of Money (Drobny) and The Holy Grail of Macroeconomics (Koo).
Adam is a Managing Director and Global Head of G10 FX Options Trading at Goldman Sachs. Prior to this, he was an FX Volatility Portfolio Manager at PIMCO, and he has worked as a vanilla and exotic FX options trader at Barclays Investment Bank in London. He is the author of Foreign Exchange: Practical Asset Pricing and Macroeconomic Theory (forthcoming, 2022), and Volatility: Practical Options Theory (2018). Adam holds a PhD in financial mathematics and economics from Imperial College London, an MSc in applied mathematics from Oxford University, and an MSci, and BA in physics from Cambridge University. In this podcast we discuss:
Why investors and traders need to understand finance theory, risk premia strategies, and understanding risk premium through umbrellas and rainy weather. We also covered the common risk premia strategies in FX markets, where currency volatility comes from, options markets, rules of thumb for trading options, and when to use options. Finally, on the more personal side, Adam revealed the books that have influenced him the most: Asset Pricing (Cochrane) and End of Alchemy (King).
Shahin Vallée is head of the Geo-Economics Program at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP). Before the German Council, Shahin was a senior economist for Soros Fund Management, and also served as a personal advisor to George Soros. Prior to that, he was the economic advisor to Emmanuel Macron at the French Ministry for the Economy and Finance, where he focused on European economic affairs. Between 2012 and 2014, Shahin was the economic advisor to President of the European Council, Herman Van Rompuy. In this podcast we discuss:
- How Europe fits into the US-China conflict
- Europe’s nuclear energy dilemma
- Russia/Ukraine risks
- Chances of Euro break-up
- If the EU fiscal policy changed after COVID
- Whether the ECB will hike in 2022
- Whether Macron wins the French elections in April
- Germany in a post-Merkel world
- Books that influenced Shahin: Lords of Finance (Ahamed) and The Alchemy Of Finance (Soros)
Mark Yusko is the Founder, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Morgan Creek Capital Management. Prior to forming Morgan Creek in 2004, Mark was President, Chief Investment Officer and Founder of UNC Management Company, the Endowment investment office for the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, from 1998 to 2004. Until 1998, Mark was the Senior Investment Director for the University of Notre Dame Investment Office where he joined as the Assistant Investment Officer in October of 1993. In this podcast we discuss: 1. The importance of the asset allocation decision rather than trading 2. The investment value of ownership 3. The problem with the 60:40 model 4. The coming debt default 5. How to manage risk 6. Innovation as an asset class 7. Understanding the crypto revolution 8. How to pick the right crypto markets and avoid Ponzi schemes 9. Favourite coins/tokens 10. Favourite equity sectors and bonds for 2022 11. Learning from star investors 12. Books that influenced Mark: The Alchemist (Coelho) and The Tao Jones Averages (Goodspeed)
Mark Stanwyck is the Co-Founder of Avalaunch - the first protocol, exclusively for the Avalanche ecosystem, to offer projects a platform for decentralized fundraising. Rick Seeger is the Co-Founder of Oh! Finance - an optimized yield-generation protocol. In this podcast we discuss:
- Comparison of layer one protocols from Ethereum to Avalanche
- Use cases in crypto
- How GameFi works
- How traditional gaming companies respond to GameFi
- Ways in which DeFi offers high yields
- What the criteria are to determine the risk of DeFi yields
- Whether Coinbase and other centralised exchanges impact DeFi
- How fundraising works in crypto
- Comparisons of VC vs decentralised user-driven fundraising
- Books that influenced Mark and Rick: The History of Money (Weatherford) and The Compound Effect (Hardy)
Ari Paul is co-founder and CIO of BlockTower Capital. BlockTower is a crypto and blockchain investment firm, applying professional trading, investing and portfolio management to this digital asset class. It is funded by well-known investors such as A16z and Union Square Ventures.
Before BlockTower, Ari was a portfolio manager for the University of Chicago's $8 billion endowment, and a derivatives market maker and proprietary trader for Susquehanna International Group (SIG). In this podcast we discuss:
- How to value bitcoin
- Understanding drivers of crypto markets
- What flows have driven crypto in recent years?
- Business for exchanges like UniSwap
- The real benefit of crypto is co-ordination power
- Trends in layer one protocols like Ethereum and Solana
- Will switch to Proof of Stake make a difference?
- What stage of hype cycle are Metaverse and DeFi tokens?
- Risk is about sizing positions
- Books/articles that influenced Ari: Money, blockchains, and social scalability (Nick Szabo), Shelling Out: The Origin Of Money (Szabo), Debt: The First 5000 Years (Graeber)
On this special episode, we turn the tables and Bilal becomes the guest as Andrew Simon, our COO of Macro Hive and business partner, does the interviewing this time.
Bilal Hafeez is the Founder and CEO of Macro Hive. Prior to this, Bilal was Global Head of International Fixed Income Strategy at Nomura between 2016 and 2019. Before that Bilal held various senior roles at Deutsche Bank between 2002 and 2015 including Head of Multi-Asset Research, Advisor to the CEO, Head of Asia Research in Singapore and Global Head of Foreign Exchange Research. Bilal started his career at J.P. Morgan in 1998. In this podcast we discuss:
- [3:03] - Lessons learned at JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank and Nomura
- [ 38:22] - Views on inflation and why yields are low
- How to understand the market impact of COVID
- Tech booms and crypto
- What economists get wrong about tech
- New frontier of the digital economy
- China’s challenge
- [01:21:48] Favourite investment lessons
- Advice to new starters in finance
- Productivity tips
-
Books that influenced Bilal:
-
- The Black Swan (Taleb)
- Beginning of Infinity )Deutsch),
- Superforecasting (Tetlock, Gardner)
- The Great Crash 1929 (Galbraith)
- Liar’s Poker (Lewis)
- A Technique for Producing Ideas (Young)
- It Doesn’t Have to Be Crazy at Work (Fried)
- Bloomberg (Bloomberg)
- The Rumi Collection (Rumi, Helminski)
- The Complete Works of William Shakespeare (Shakespeare)
- Meditations (Aurelius)
- How To Improve Your Marriage Without Talking About It (Lowe, Stosny)
- Non-Violent Communication (Rosenberg)
- Raising Boys and Raising Girls (Biddulph)
Fabio is a Deputy Director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department at the IMF. He is responsible for the Global Financial Stability Report that gives the IMF’s assessment of global financial stability risks. Prior to joining the IMF, Fabio was a Senior Associate Director in the Division of Monetary Affairs at the Federal Reserve Board. Between October 2016 and June 2017, Fabio was Deputy Assistant Secretary for International Financial Stability and Regulation at the U.S. Department of Treasury. In this podcast we discuss:
- How COVID shocks transmit to markets and the economy
- Why haven’t bankruptcies picked up?
- The likely impact of Omicron
- How to know if inflation will be transitory
- How leveraged are markets?
- What are the risks to China?
- How stable are stablecoins?
- The investment challenge for climate policy
- Books that influenced Fabio: Barbarians at the Gate (Burrough, Helyar), The Divine Comedy (Dante)
Omicron, the name of the new Covid-19 variant that has recently emerged, caused panic across the world and a selloff in risk on Friday. Following an influx of questions from The Hive, we held an urgent webinar to discuss the strain and its potential impacts on financial markets.
Professor Justin Stebbing of the Faculty of Medicine at Imperial College London joined us to provide his expert opinion. Justin has published in The Lancet new research on using AI to find drugs to treat COVID-19 and in Foreign Affairs on China’s global role in vaccine distribution.
To explore the possible economic and financial market implications, Macro Hive CEO Bilal Hafeez and Senior Strategist Dominique Dwor-Frecaut provide their views.
Nancy Davis is the founder and managing partner of Quadratic Capital Management. She is the portfolio manager for The Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF (IVOL). She founded Quadratic Capital in 2013. She began her career at Goldman Sachs where she spent nearly ten years, the last seven with the proprietary trading group where she rose to become the Head of Credit, Derivatives and OTC Trading. Prior to starting Quadratic, she served as a portfolio manager at Highbridge Capital Management where she managed $500 million of capital in a derivatives only portfolio. She later served in a senior executive role at AllianceBernstein. In this podcast we discuss:
- Why ETFs are attractive wrappers for active strategies
- How best to capture true inflation risk
- The pros and cons of investing in TIPs
- How to think about spread exposure
- Taking advantage of the shape of forward curve to fund option premium
- How the IVOL strategy performed during COVID
- Are real yields too low?
- Risks for 2022 including stagflation
Edward Glaeser is Professor of Economics at Harvard University. He is perhaps the world’s leading expert on cities. He recently authored, along with David Cutler, Survival of the City – Living and Thriving in the Age of Isolation. Edward leads the Urban Economics Working Group at the National Bureau of Economic Research, and co-leads the Cities Programme at the International Growth Center. He is a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and the National Academy of Public Administration. In this podcast we discuss:
- What defines a city?
- How have pandemics impacted cities across history?
- Why are people healthier in cities than in rural areas?
- Why is there large inequality within cities?
- Importance of education
- What led to the urban renaissance of the 1990s
- Why didn’t tech revolution end cities?
- Will Zoom revolution change cities?
- What lead to growth of Silicon Valley
- Factors that drive gentrification
- Three recommendations for helping cities.
- Edward’s book recommendations: The Death and Life of Great American Cities (Jacobs), Nature's Metropolis: Chicago and the Great West (Cronon), Regional Advantage: Culture and Competition in Silicon Valley and Route 128 (Saxenian), Framing the Early Middle Ages (Wickham) and Origins of the European Economy (McCormick)
Rolf Strauch is Chief Economist and Management Board Member of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), which he joined in July 2010. These entities provide financial assistance to euro-area countries experiencing financing problems. Rolf represents the ESM and EFSF in European fora and negotiates with Member States. Prior to this, Mr Strauch worked at the European Central Bank from 2000–2010 and served previously as an economist at the Deutsche Bundesbank. In this podcast we discuss:
- How successful were the European rescue packages during the euro sovereign crisis?
- How did the economic policy response to COVID of Europe compare to the US?
- How the ESM is changing
- Outlook around Europe’s Next Generation EU stimulus
- The growth of the common EU bonds and green bonds
- How advanced is Europe’s banking union?
- Can Europe’s capital markets grow to US levels?
- Impact of Brexit on EU institutions
- Euro-area growth outlook
- Recommended books: The Globotics Upheaval (Baldwin)
Alex Gurevich is the Founder and CIO of HonTe Advisors, LLC. Alex has been involved in trading for over 20 years; holding various roles on Wall Street that included the launch of fixed income derivative trading franchises as well as running the macro book at JP Morgan. More recently, Alex has transformed his very successful family office into a global macro strategy suitable for institutional investors. He is the author of The Next Perfect Trade (2015) and soon to be published The Trades of March. Alex was born and raised in St. Petersburg, Russia and earned his PhD in mathematics from the University of Chicago. On this podcast we discuss:
- How games like chess, go and poker can help your investing
- Why sticking to take profits and stops is important
- Which markets follow valuation
- Alex’s experience of trading COVID in March 2020 and lessons learned
- How to think about the current inflation debate
- US real yields could head lower
- Recent front-end sell is overdone
- Australia could be a stand-out market
- Dollar view
- Why equities don’t follow the economic cycle
- Books that influenced Alex: Lord of the Rings (Tolkien), On Being Certain (Burton)
- Sci-fi book recommendations: Hyperion (Simmons), Ender’s Game (Card), Rise of a Merchant Prince (Feist), The Dagger and the Coin (Abraham), Expanse (Corey)
Scott is the Founder and CEO of Masterworks, a platform for investing in art markets. Scott has been an active collector of contemporary art for more than fifteen years and has built an internationally-recognized collection of Abstract Expressionism that has included works by Clyfford Still, Barnett Newman, Mark Rothko, Willem de Kooning, and more. In addition to Masterworks, Scott serves on the board of v2 ventures (Adparlor, Giant Media, Reachmobi, Amply, and Sellozo), Payability, and the Brooklyn Rail (a non-profit publication in the art industry). In this podcast we discuss:
- What determines the value of art
- Importance of gallery representation and marketing
- How liquidity has evolved in the art market
- Where the main buyers of art are from
- How different segments of art market have performed
- What the expected return of art is
- How art correlates to other asset classes
- When art has underperformed
- Examples of artists whose art has performed well: from Basquiat to Gilliam
- How investors can get exposure to art
- Views on NFT
- Books that influenced Scott: Thinking, Fast and Slow (Kahneman) and Competitive Strategy (Porter)
Azeem is the creator of Exponential View, a leading platform for in-depth tech analysis. His weekly newsletter is read by 200,000 people from around the world, and his podcast has featured guests including Yuval Noah Harari, Tony Blair and Kate Raworth. A member of the World Economic Forum's Global Futures Council, Azeem contributes to publications including the Financial Times, Wired and the MIT Technology Review. His new book is called Exponential: How Accelerating Technology Is Leaving Us Behind and What to Do. In this podcast we discuss:
- The four technologies driving exponential age
- What’s different between today and previous tech transitions
- How tech companies defy conventional understanding
- Why productivity has been low
- Climate change and productivity
- Understanding US/China/Europe tech rivalry
- Importance of big tech in dealing with cyber risk
- Books that influenced Azeem: Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital (Perez) and Letters to a Young Poet (Rilke)
Boris is one of the top macro thinkers in the market. He is a managing director at Goldman Sachs. Before GS, he was partner and portfolio manager at Rokos Capital Management, Fortress and Brevan Howard. Boris started his career on the sell-side which included working at UBS and Dresdner. Boris will be giving his personal opinions and not those of Goldman Sachs or any other organisations he is affiliated to. In this podcast, we discuss:
- What is reverse goldilocks?
- Parallels and differences to 1970s stagflation
- The challenge of the current regime
- How will policymakers respond?
- What gives central banks credibility?
- What does it mean for macro environment?
- Views on China
- How will equities, bonds and FX perform
- Why terms of trade matter
Marc is author of Net Interest – a leading weekly newsletter on the world of finance. Before this, Marc spent ten years at leading hedge fund Lansdowne Partners, where he was a partner and portfolio manager. This was after he spent time on the sell-side working for Barclays Investment Bank (BZW), Schroders and then Credit Suisse, where he was head of the European banks research team. In this podcast we discuss:
- How to predict financial crises
- How are financials different from other companies
- What do banks price-to-bank ratios tell us?
- Can banks rebrand themselves as fintech?
- What are the key fintech trends
- How will credit evolve
- Is the crypto challenge to finance real?
- How to do well in angel investing
- Why have private equity firms institutionalised better than hedge funds
- What is the state of sell-side research?
- Books that influenced Marc: Fooled by Randomness (Taleb), Origin of Wealth (Beinhocker) and The (Mis)Behaviour of Markets (Mandelbrot).
This episode is sponsored by Masterworks.
Dr. Anas Alhajji is a leading energy markets expert, and advises governments, companies, and financial institutions on energy markets. He focuses on oil and gas market outlook, energy geopolitics, energy security, and the impact of disruptive technologies on the supply and demand of energy. He is the Managing Partner at Energy Outlook Advisors LLC, and was previously the Chief Economist of NGP Energy Capital Management. He is also a contributing editor for top industry publication: World Oil. Before moving to industry, Anas taught economics at the University of Oklahoma, the Colorado School of Mines and Ohio Northern University. In this podcast we discuss:
- False ideas around what drives oil prices
- What supply and demand drivers matter
- Why OPEC doesn’t matter
- Why peak oil is wrong
- Why bearish oil demand forecasts on ESG/climate change are wrong
- How governments and companies are not acting on carbon neutrality
- How Iran oil supply has continued despite sanctions
- Oil underinvestment in oil producing nations
- Saudi, US and Russian oil supply outlook
- The Arctic oil play
- China’s dominance in oil markets
- The rise of private generators
- Book that Anas rates: Kuwait in the Time of British Empire (Khajah)
Richard is a co-founder and Managing Partner at Fabric Ventures – a VC fund adapting the early, technical, and patient approach of venture capital to investing in Web 3.0 and decentralised data networks. Fabric invested in the likes of Polkadot, Ocean Protocol, Orchid, Blockstack, zeppelin_os, and Keep, among others. Richard combines a pedigree in open source, developer-oriented tools, and early-stage venture investing with blockchain focus since 2013, and has invested in Pantera Venture Fund, Bitstamp, Bitrise, Tray.io, Transferwise, and Citymapper. Richard was previously a 3x software entrepreneur, building/ scaling Automic (CA), Tideway (BMC), and Orchestream (Oracle) – reaching a cumulative market cap of billions. In this podcast we discuss:
- Starting companies versus investing
- What makes start-ups and their founders successful
- What returns should one expect in VC
- What is the Open Economy and Web 3.0
- Centralisation vs decentralisation
- Books that influenced Richard: Strangers in a Strange Land (Heinlein), Future History (Heinlein), Atlas Shrugged (Rand), and The Third Chimpanzee (Diamond)
David has over 30 years’ experience of managing risk across global markets. David is the CIO of Singapore-based Convex strategies - which focuses on risk management including protecting against dislocations in asset markets. Prior to launching Convex Strategies, he served as a Managing Director and Portfolio Manager at Artradis Fund Management in Singapore. Earlier in his career, David built and ran Asian and Global EM trading businesses for RBS (ABN AMRO Group), Bankers Trust and Bank of America. David holds an MBA from University of California, Berkeley. He currently sits on the Monetary Authority of Singapore Markets Committee (SFEMC). In this podcast we discuss:
- The confusion between measuring risk and managing risk
- The problem with value-at-risk and defining risk
- What is convexity
- Why buying options is not ‘expensive’
- Importance of compound returns over arithmetic returns
- How to think about ergodicity
- Why allocation to bonds don’t provide the right downside protection
- Getting your defense right, insurance and long vol strategies
- The role of central banks in shifting equity-bond correlations
- The importance of time in convexity strategies
- The growing fragility in the financial system
- Managing correlation risk
- Books that influenced David: How Nature Works (Bak), The Misbehaviour of Markets (Mandelbrot), The Incerto Collection (Taleb), The Road to Serfdom (Hayek), Ubiquity (Buchanan), Radical Uncertainty (King)
Todd Edgar has over 28 years’ experience in financial markets. He has spent the last 2 years as CIO of Atreaus Family, a family office, allocating capital to equities, rates, commodities, FX, Crypto and real estate. Prior to that, he spent 9 years as Founder of Atreaus Capital, a global macro hedge fund with a peak AUM of over $3bn. He also served as Global Head of Macro Proprietary at Barclays Capital and before that as Global Head of the Commodities and FX Proprietary Trading at JPMorgan. Todd has also been a Portfolio Manager at Tudor Investment Corp. He graduated from the University of New South Wales, Sydney, currently lives on Long Island, NY. In this podcast we discuss:
- Challenges of running a hedge fund
- How have markets changed since the global financial crisis (2008)
- Approach to investing
- Reasons for being long China bonds
- PBoC the new Bundesbank
- Are commodities in a new supercycle?
- How to think about inflation
- Views on crypto markets
- How to avoid losses impacting your future performance
- Advice from Paul Tudor Jones
- Book that influenced Todd: Market Wizards (Schwager) and Trading in the Zone (Douglas)
David is the author of the blog, David Woo Unbound. Before that, he was Head of Global Rates, FX and EM Fixed Income Strategy & Economics Research at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. In that role, he was responsible for the bank’s views and forecasts for developed and emerging sovereign bond yields and exchange rates. He was earlier at Barclays Capital, Citigroup and the IMF. David has a Ph.D. in economics from Columbia University. In this podcast we discuss:
- Why news media has become more politicised
- The impact of globalization on inequality
- What explains countries with high COVID cases
- Why Trump was right on vaccine vs COVID elimination
- COVID to remain a factor in coming years
- Return to stagflation
- Mnuchin under-rated as Treasury Secretary, Yellen over-rated
- Supply-side policies/inequality under Trump
- The fundamental shifts in US-China relations
- China tech policy is what Biden wishes he could do
- Book that influenced David: Predictioneer (de Mesquita)
Nikhil recently published an influential investment report titled ‘Ethereum, The Triple Halving’, and has been researching cryptocurrencies and the Ethereum ecosystem since 2020. Outside of markets, Nikhil is an incoming medical resident at University of Colorado internal medicine. Nikhil completed his undergraduate degree at Rice University where he studied Philosophy and Cognitive Science. He then completed his medical school at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai. In this podcast we discuss:
- Key differences between Bitcoin and Ethereum
- Consensus algorithms: proof-of-work vs proof-of stake
- The selling pressure of miners on Bitcoin
- The triple halving for Ethereum
- Impact of EIP1559 and halving
- Base case price target for Ethereum of $30,000-$50,000
- Dynamics of an overshoot to $150,000
- The growth of staking derivatives
- Can Cardano and Solana dislodge Ethereum
- Future of NFT and the metaverse
- Book that influenced Nikhil: Doing Good Better (MacAskill)
In this episode, I talk with Saeed Amen. He is the founder of Cuemacro, which provides investors with quant research and analysis. Over the past fifteen years, Saeed has developed systematic trading strategies at major investment banks, including Lehman Brothers and Nomura. He is also the author of “Trading Thalesians: What the ancient world can teach us about trading today” and is the coauthor of “The Book of Alternative Data”, which is due out later this year. He is also a visiting lecturer at Queen Mary University of London. In this podcast we discuss:
- Types of trading models, including trend-following and carry
- How to design good trading models
- Avoiding data mining
- Whether certain strategies are becoming too crowded
- Why trend-following models have underperformed
- Examples of alpha models like trading month-end flows
- Importance of reducing transaction costs
- Types of alternative data
- How to use news data
- The non-technical challenges of using alternative data
- Why Python is an important complement to Excel
Alberto is Head of Global Credit strategies and Portfolio Manager of the Algebris Global Credit Opportunities fund, a global strategy investing in bonds, credit and equities. Prior to Algebris, Alberto was Managing Director and Head of Global Macro Credit Research at RBS (2011-2016). His team was top ranked in Institutional Investor’s All-Europe Fixed Income survey for Investment Grade, High Yield Research and Fixed Income Strategy, for four years running. Previously, Alberto was a macro strategist at Goldman Sachs in New York (2007-2011) and previously he was at Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch in London (2004-2007), where he co-authored some of the early research on the credit derivatives market.In this podcast we discuss:
- The challenge to neo-liberal capitalism
- Biden’s push for infrastructure and future trade policy
- China’s paradox markets vs centralisation
- COVID accelerated history
- Corporate inequality
- The effects of QE infinity
- The barbell approach to investing in a low yield world
- Favoured sectors
- Europe vs US equity allocations
- Why EM risks are high
- Inflation persistence
- Lessons learned as an investor
Books that influenced Alberto: In Defence of Open Society (Soros), The Logic of Scientific Discovery (Popper), The Myth of Capitalism (Tepper), The Hidden Wealth of Nations (Zucman et al), Geopolitical Alpha (Papic), Homo Deus (Harari) and Brave New World (Huxley)
This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare.
Anna founded Sonya Capital Management in December 2016. Prior to that, Anna spent over twenty years at Citigroup, where she oversaw a multi-billion dollar balance sheet and large teams of traders as the Head of the Strategic Trading Desk, Co-Head of Risk Treasury and Head of the Agency MBS trading desk. Anna traded through eight central bank tightening and easing cycles and a few financial crises, such as the Asian financial crisis, the Dot-com bubble and the Global Financial crisis. When she left Citigroup, the WSJ featured her as ‘Citigroup's last proprietary trader’. She graduated with honours from Princeton University with a degree in Mathematics. In this podcast we discuss:
- Difference between trading on the sell-side versus at own fund
- Framework used to invest in markets
- How to use flow information to validate views
- The value of machine learning
- How to identify market regime changes
- The impact of risk transfers on market volatility
- How bubbles can be rational
- The difference between high-frequency trading and macro
- Views on the current reflation theme
- Two major risks: US tax changes and China decoupling
- Market to watch - yen
- Views on crypto markets
- Books that influenced Anna: The Second Machine Age (Brynjolfsson, Mcafee), Thinking, Fast and Slow (Kahneman)
Roger is a former diplomat, development banker, and capital market development advisor, who twice served in the British Embassy in Beijing, and is the author of the highly acclaimed Coming Alive: China After Mao, which explained how Deng Xiaoping won the struggle to succeed Chairman Mao Zedong and what he would do with his power. He has recently published a provocative new book China Coup: The Great Leap to Freedom. In the podcast, we talk about:
- Why China is outwardly strong and inwardly weak
- The debt and efficiency problems of the state sector
- The role of corruption
- The centralisation of power around President Xi
- How a top-down coup could occur in China
- The role of the US in forcing regime change
- How COVID has impacted the Chinese political structure
- Why China is more fragile today than in the past
- Books that influenced Roger: The Bible and Capitalism and Freedom (Friedman)
- Cross-exchange arbitrage in crypto
- How lending works in bitcoin and crypto
- Futures and interest rates on bitcoin
- Dynamics of the May bitcoin correction
- Divergence between US and China trading
- On-chain features and smart contracts
- Yield farming
- Issues around Tether
- Types of investors in crypto
- Call over-writing strategies
- Books that influenced Roshun: The Beginning of Infinity (Deutsch), The Selfish Gene (Dawkins), Sapiens (Harari), The Sovereign Individual (Davidson), The Energy World Is Flat (Lacalle and Parrila), and The Three-Body Problem (Liu)
Dr. Charles D. Ellis is the founder and former managing partner of Greenwich Associates, an international consultancy where he advised large institutional investors, foundations, and government organizations in more than 130 financial markets across the globe. He taught investment management courses at the Yale School of Management and at Harvard Business School. He sat on the Board of Directors of The Vanguard Group. In addition, Charley was a successor trustee of Yale University, where he chaired the university’s investment committee with David Swensen. He is the author of a number of books including Winning the Loser’s Game, which has recently come out in its 8th edition. In the podcast, we talk about:
- Why it has become harder for investors to outperform the market
- The rise of highly professional investors
- The difficulty of finding good investment managers
- The poor returns of investment managers
- The importance of time in assessing performance
- Market timing versus factor investing
- The impact of monetary policy on markets
- The problem with bond investing
- Outlook for equity returns
- Understanding your total portfolio
- Think over long time horizons and importance of character
- Benefit from intelligence of others through index investing
- Books/articles that influenced Charley: Warren Buffet’s annual letters, The Theory of Investment Value (John Burr Williams), Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits and Other Writings (Philip Fisher), Security Analysis (Graham and Dodd), Inside the Yield Book (Martin Leibowitz), Pioneering Portfolio Management (David Swensen)
Christian Angermayer is an entrepreneur and investor and the founder of Apeiron Investment Group, his family office and merchant banking business. Apeiron focuses on Financial Services (especially fintech and crypto assets), Technology, Life Sciences, Media & Entertainment and Real Estate & Prop-Tech. In the podcast, we talk about:
- What has helped Christian become a successful investor and entrepreneur
- The positive history of psychedelics
- The medical potential for psychedelics in mental health
- Classifying ageing as a disease
- Breakthroughs in longevity medicine
- Why healthcare systems are so costly
- How money printing is reshaping the economy
- The transition from linear growth to exponential growth
- The US-China rivalry
- The future of crypto currencies
- What to know about space tech
- Why invest in movies
- Books mentioned on podcast: The Immortality Key (Muraresku), How to Change Your Mind (Pollan)
- Book that influenced Christian: Think and Grow Rich! (Hill), The Law of Attraction (Hicks)
This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare.
Josef Ackermann is the former chairman of the management board and the group executive committee at Deutsche Bank. Ackermann joined Deutsche Bank’s board of managing directors in 1996, where he was responsible for the investment banking division. He is also former chairman of the Board of Directors of Bank of Cyprus. Ackermann studied economics and social sciences at the University of St. Gallen, where he earned his doctorate. In the podcast, we talk about:
- Managing Deutsche Bank around the global financial crisis
- Banker compensation and bonuses
- Why European banks have underperformed US banks
- The need for European bank consolidation
- How will fintech disrupt banking
- The importance of capital markets in Europe
- The future of asset management
- Passive vs active investment.
- How Western financials can benefit from China
- Book that influenced Joe: Faustv (Goethe), In Search Of Excellence (Peters), Built To Last (Collins), The Effective Executive (Drucker), The One Minute Manager (Blanchard)
John Butler has 25 years’ experience in international finance. He has served as a Managing Director for bulge-bracket investment banks in research, strategy, asset allocation and product development roles, including at Deutsche Bank and Lehman Brothers. He has advised some of the world’s largest institutional and private investors, and he has been a #1 ranked Investment Strategist by Institutional Investor magazine. His past publications include his popular Amphora Report investment newsletter and the book ‘The Golden Revolution’. In the podcast, we talk about:
- Why stagflation is here
- The problem with large fiscal and public spending plans
- The moral hazard of Fed policy
- Why was inflation low after the global financial crisis?
- The absence of excess capacity and parallels to 1970s
- How to play a stagflation theme
- Is there a commodity supercycle?
- The future path of gold
- Why bitcoin won’t replace the dollar (or gold)
- The importance of risk management
- Book that influenced John: Money and Magic (Binswanger)
This episode is sponsored by Masterworks.
Charles Goodhart CBE is Emeritus Professor of Banking and Finance at the LSE, having previously been its Deputy Director. Previously, he had worked at the Bank of England for seventeen years including as Chief Adviser and later In 1997 as independent members of the Bank of England's new Monetary Policy Committee until May 2000. He is the developer of Goodhart's law, an economic law named after him. He has written numerous books including the graduate monetary textbook, 'Money, Information and Uncertainty', ‘The Regulatory Response to the Financial Crisis' (2009) and most recently ‘The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival’ (2020). In the podcast, we talk about:
- Importance of understanding money demand and the money multiplier
- Should central banks target monetary aggregates and house prices?
- The problem with the Fed’s new inflation targeting objectives.
- Understanding China’s integration to the global economy
- The challenges of an ageing population
- Factors that depressed inflation are now turning
- Why didn’t ageing Japan see inflation
- Why demographics in the US are inflationary
- Can India and Africa provide the necessary demographic boost to offset DM ageing?
- Can Tech replace the missing working age population?
- How to fix the global debt problem
- Books that influenced Charles: A Monetary History of the United States (Friedman, Schwartz), Golden Fetters (Eichengreen), the works of Dennis Robertson, James Tobin, Charles Kindleberger, and Robert Eisler
Dr. Adrian Williams is the UK's first Professor of Sleep Medicine. Adrian graduated from University College, London, UK, and after a lectureship at The Cardiothoracic Institute, Brompton Hospital in 1975 took up an appointment at Harvard, Boston, USA, followed by an invitation to University of California (UCLA) in 1977. In 1985 Professor Williams became tenured Professor of Medicine at UCLA and co-Director of the UCLA Sleep Laboratory. In 1994 he returned to London where he developed the Sleep Centre at Guy’s and St. Thomas’ now the most active in the UK, and continues in the full-time practice of Sleep Medicine. In addition, Professor Williams holds the UK’s first Chair in Sleep Medicine at Kings College, London, UK. In the podcast, we talk about:
- Why we sleep
- Impact of lack of sleep on decision-making
- Types of sleep non-REM and REM
- How much should we sleep?
- Does catch-up sleep on the weekend help?
- What triggers sleep
- Sleep apnea and snoring
- Sleep and temperature
- Managing jet lag
- Melatonin, sleeping pills, caffeine and alcohol
- Tips for better sleep
- Books that influenced Adrian: Sleep and Wakefulness (Kleitman, 1939), The Promise Of Sleep (Dement), Genius: Richard Feynman and Modern Physics (Gleick), Surely You're Joking Mr Feynman (Feynman), The Code Breaker (Isaacson), The Double Helix (Watson)
This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare.
Sajid is currently the Conservative Member of Parliament for Bromsgrove. He has held two of the four ‘Great Offices Of State’ in the UK government: Chancellor of the Exchequer and Home Secretary. He was first elected to Parliament in 2010. Before that, he worked at Deutsche Bank and Chase Manhattan Bank. At Deutsche Bank, he helped build their emerging market businesses. Sajid was born in Rochdale (Manchester) and was raised in Bristol. He read Economic and Politics at Exeter University. In the podcast, we talk about:
- How has the UK handled the pandemic so far?
- The UK fiscal outlook – spending focuses and taxes
- How pandemic shocks differ from wars
- Why inflation could pick up
- The importance of climate change and the UK track record
- Results of the UK’s Integrated Review and centrality of climate change
- Why biodiversity also matters
- Will UK parliament’s unanimous support for climate change policy continue?
- UK’s global role in a post-Brexit world
- New measures to attract international talent to UK
- Possible future global alliances
Themos is the Head of Research at the macro hedge fund, Glen Point Capital. His previous roles included being Head of Fundamental Strategy at UBS and Head of EM FX Strategy at Goldman Sachs. In the podcast, we talk about:
- How investors are not understanding the impact of the US stimulus
- Will price increases be transitory?
- How healthy is the US labour market?
- Important shifts in China policy
- How to play the Euro-area recovery
- Investors are missing key EM trends
- Favourite EM markets
- Books that influenced Themos: Economics in Perspective (Galbraith) and A Theory of Justice (Rawls)
Dominique is one of my favourite macro thinkers and economists – she’s so good, we hired her to work for Macro Hive. As for her background, she’s worked at Bridgewater, Barclays and RBS. And before that she worked on policy and research at the New York Fed, the IMF and the World Bank. In the podcast, we talk about:
- The US labour supply problem and its impact on growth for the rest of 2021
- The difference between Democrat and Republican states on COVID
- Can inflation move higher?
- How income inequality drives asset markets and the economy
- The impact of more active fiscal policy on growth and inflation
- Outlook on Germany and China
- Timing the next big US bond sell-off
- Books that influenced Dominique: Radical Uncertainty (King, Kay), The Social Conquest of Earth (Wilson)
Phil is one of my favourite global economists. Currently, he runs his own economic research outfit. Before that he worked at JPMorgan, the Fed, World Bank, Barclays and Tudor. In the podcast, we talk about:
- COVID has led to the biggest change to inflation regime since early 1970s.
- Private sector to acquire real assets rather than financial assets.
- High inflation likely to persist over 2022 and 2023.
- Fed will be in play sooner than expected.
- Goods sector could see ‘recession’ in 2021 on supply constraints.
- Summer risks around US fiscal and debt ceiling.
- EM local markets appear mispriced.
- Climate change policies lead to more investment and higher prices.
- UK in secular decline.
- Book that has recently engaged Phil Suttle: John Maynard Keynes: 1883-1946: Economist, Philosopher, Statesman (Skidelsky).
This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare.
Wolfgang Münchau is co-founder and director of Eurointelligence. He was a Financial Times columnist from 2003 until 2020 and co-founder and editor-in-chief of Financial Times Deutschland. He is the author of several books, including Meltdown Years. In this podcast, we discuss:
- The unpopularity of Germany’s governing party, the CDU and its new leader Laschet.
- Laschet’s support for the coal industry.
- The popularity of sister party CSU’s leader Söder and his new economy focus.
- The possibility of a CDU and CSU split.
- Why are Greens so popular in Germany?
- The fiscal implications of Greens in power.
- Germany’s constitutional constraints on fiscal policy.
- Why far-right AfD has performed poorly recently.
- The mismanagement of COVID and the political impact.
- Does the EU Recovery Fund signal a common EU fiscal policy?
- Will EU climate policy be successful?
- Book that influenced Wolfgang: The Rise and Fall of Weimar Democracy (Mommsen), Paris 1919: Six Months That Changed the World (MacMillan).
This episode is sponsored by Masterworks.
Jeff is Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investment Partners. He started his career in portfolio management and equity research before focusing on broad investment research since the 2000s. In this podcast, we discuss:
- Do central banks believe in QE?
- Why QE didn’t generate inflation after GFC.
- What is money and can central banks control it?
- The importance of banks.
- What caused the 1970s inflation.
- The rise of the offshore dollar (euro-dollar) system.
- Why fiscal stimulus won’t work.
- The problem with market fragility and illiquidity.
- Central banks care about equity markets.
- What could generate inflation?
- Book that influenced Jeff: A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960 (Friedman, Schwartz)
This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare.
Boris focuses on global macro and EM. He is a managing director at Goldman Sachs. Before GS, he was partner and portfolio manager at Rokos Capital Management, Fortress and Brevan Howard. Boris started his career on the sell-side which included working at UBS and Dresdner. In this podcast, we discuss:
- Inflation outlook – the Europe surprise – inflation persistence.
- Will fiscal spending crowd out private spending?
- The best Europe trade.
- Which yields matter for EM.
- How important is China’s deleveraging goals?
- Where next for Chinese currency and bonds?
- Outlook for BRICS countries and which markets to buy.
- Machine learning vs regressions.
- Books that influenced Boris: Twenty-Eight Years In Wall Street (Clews), Economic Interdependence and War (Copeland), The Ashtray (Morris) and Twelve Virtues of Rationality (Yudkowsky).
- Current market views on bonds and equities.
This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare.
Bobby is partner and portfolio manager at Toscafund Asset Management. He is author of the widely read newsletter, Macro Eagle. He has been the UK representative of the German Economic Council. Before that Bobby was at Goldman Sachs where he was a partner and Global Head of Market Strats.
In this podcast, we discuss:
- Why the backlash against Big Tech will continue.
- The unionization drive in the US.
- A new global corporate tax accord.
- The bullish case for Europe.
- Germany in a post-Merkel world.
- Biden’s differences to Obama.
- Biden’s tougher stance on China than Trump.
- Current market views on bonds and equities.
David Riley is Partner and Chief Investment Strategist of BlueBay Asset management – a USD70bn fixed income fund. Before Bluebay, David was global head of Fitch’s Sovereign and Supranational Group, responsible for more than 130 ratings of the world’s largest fixed-income issuers. Prior to Fitch, David was at HM Treasury where he advised on international economic and debt issues, including representing the UK at international debt restructuring negotiations at the Paris Club of Official Creditors. In this podcast, we discuss:
- How sustainable are US and developed market debt?
- Will the reflation trade continue for 2021?
- Peak pessimism on Euro-area.
- Dollar trend.
- Will corporates start defaulting?
- Impact of higher rates on credit.
- Which EM markets look attractive?
- The impact of ESG on the asset management industry.
- Books that influenced David: Fooled By Randomness (Taleb), Thinking, Fast and Slow (Kahneman), Trade Wars Are Class Wars (Klein, Pettis), Balance Sheet Recession (Koo).
Benn is the managing member and CIO of QVR. He was previously co-founder and co-portfolio manager of Mariner Coria in New York. Before that he was Head of Quantitative Research and Derivatives Trader for the Wells Fargo proprietary trading desk, which became Overland Advisors. He started his career as an emerging markets macroeconomist at the World Bank. He holds a PhD in Economics from UC Berkeley. In this podcast, we discuss:
- How derivative markets changed after the 2008 financial crisis.
- The centrality of listed derivatives.
- Why understanding supply-demand dynamics is important.
- How complexity of strategies doesn’t give you an edge.
- Do short vol strategies work?
- How to manage convexity and tail risk.
- Derivatives to replace bonds as safe haven hedge?
- What risks are investors focusing on since COVID?
- Common mistakes by quants.
- Book that influenced Benn: The House of Morgan (Chernow).
Marco is Founder and CEO of MGM Innova Group, which includes a private equity and green infrastructure fund, and a multinational firm specializing in integrated sustainability and climate change services that facilitate a transition towards a low carbon economy. Prior to that, he worked as an advisor on climate change issues to the Japanese government. In 2002, the World Economic Forum named Mr. Monroy one of the 100 Global Leaders of Tomorrow. In this podcast, we discuss:
- Will climate change policies work?
- The state-of-play in cap and trade and carbon taxes.
- The importance of energy efficiency incentives.
- Will the Biden administration make a difference?
- What is climate finance?
- Role of renewables and nuclear energy.
- Landfill/carbon capture.
- Investor flows into ESG and green bonds.
- Books that influenced Marco: The Alchemist (Coelho), Outliers (Gladwell), Emotional Intelligence (Goleman), Man’s Search For Meaning (Frankl).
Zac is the CEO and Founder of BlockFi – a leading wealth management firm for crypto investors. Prior to starting BlockFi, he led business development teams at Orchard Platform, a broker dealer and RIA in the online lending sector, and Zibby, an online consumer lender. In this podcast, we discuss:
- The three use case of crypto – store of value, new commerce, and new payments system.
- Stablecoins are underappreciated.
- What is decentralized finance (defi).
- How you can earn interest on crypto assets.
- How to manage crypto lending books.
- Breakdown of market players.
- How to hedge your portfolio.
- Regulatory trends in crypto finance.
- Future of NFTs.
- Books that influenced Zac: The Hard Thing About Hard Things (Horowitz) and Zero To One (Thiel). Books Zac has recently read: No Rules Rules: Netflix and the Culture of Reinvention (Hastings) and Shantaram (Roberts).
This episode is sponsored by Masterworks.
James Aitken is the Founder and Managing Partner of Aitken Advisors, a research boutique for institutional investors which he started in 2009. Before that, James worked for UBS, AIG, JPMorgan and Macqaurie. In this podcast, we discuss:
- The real meaning of macro investing.
- The market has right tails as well as left tails.
- How to view recent rates market volatility.
- Why would Fed do yield curve control?
- Biden and the finance sector.
- How to hedge your portfolio.
- The importance of stock vigilantes.
- The different channels of inflation.
- The unexpected impact of US fiscal on wages.
- Books that influenced James: The Adventures of Sherlock Holmes (Doyle), Mastermind: How to Think Like Sherlock Holmes (Konnikova), Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders (Schwager), A Man for All Markets: Beating the Odds, from Las Vegas to Wall Street (Thorpe), An Engine, Not a Camera: How Financial Models Shape Markets (Mackenzie)
Peter is Deputy Director of the ARC Energy Research Institute, a Managing Director of ARC Financial Corporation, an energy-focused private equity firm, and the creator of Energyphile, a multimedia project exploring the past, present and future of our energy circumstance. He is the author of three books, the bestselling A Thousand Barrels a Second, The End of Energy Obesity, and his latest The Investor Visit and Other Stories, which explores disruption, denial and transition in the energy business. He is also an Adjunct Professor at the University of Calgary. In this podcast, we discuss:
- The continuing reliance of the world on oil and gas.
- Path of renewables.
- Are latest clean energy expectations likely to be realised?
- Why clean tech is being highly valued.
- The impact of electric cars and batteries on metals.
- How the oil industry will evolve with ESG and clean tech trends.
- The role of carbon capture and big energy companies.
- Financing challenges in energy sector.
- Book that influenced Peter: Edison – His Life and Inventions.
This episode is sponsored by Masterworks.
Ciamac is Professor of Business in the Decision, Risk, and Operations Division of the Graduate School of Business at Columbia University, where he has been since 2007. He also develops quantitative trading strategies at Bourbaki LLC, a quantitative investment advisor. A high school dropout, he received degrees at MIT, Cambridge, and Stanford. In this podcast, we discuss:
- Types of quant investing – prediction vs risk premia.
- Why machine learning is impacting finance more slowly than other domains (like vision and text).
- The pros and cons of using linear regressions.
- The advantages of machine learning in non-linear and complex markets.
- How to think about alternative and big data.
- Portfolio construction and combining signals.
- The importance of incorporating costs.
- Understanding time horizons of different markets.
- The trend to winner-takes-all with quant investors.
- Why bitcoin and crypto technology is special.
- Books that influenced Ciamac: The Elements of Statistical Learning (Hastie and Tibshirani), Dynamic Programming and Optimal Control: books 1 and 2 (Bertsekas), Active Portfolio Management (Grinold and Kahn).
You can follow Ciamac on Twitter here and his work here
Jay is the founder of TPW Advisory and former top ranked head of asset allocation at Morgan Stanley. In this podcast, we discuss:
- The implications of a tri-polar world.
- The biggest boom is underway..
- Which asset classes will perform in this new regime.
- The problem with a 60:40 portfolio.
- How to play clean energy (ICLN, ECAR) and why old energy (XLE) may still perform.
- Focusing on core themes: clean energy, innovation, fintech, and cyber.
- The Biden revolution that everyone is missing.
- Why rising rates won’t hurt stocks.
- Why ARK will outperform FAANGs (RSP >SPY).
- How non-US and EM (EMQQ) will outperform US.
- Why US-China risks are overstated.
- Books that influenced Jay: Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story Of Risk and Capital Ideas (both Peter Bernstein), Age of Ambition (Osnos), Devil Take the Hindmost (Chancellor), The Unwinding (Packer), and The Great Risk Shift (Hacker)
Christian Hille is the General Manager and Head of Wealth Management at Fürstlich-Castell’sche Bank (FCB) in Germany. FCB was founded in 1774 and is one of the oldest private banks in Germany. Before FCB, Christian was Global Head of Multi Asset & Solutions at DWS- Deutsche Bank’s asset management arm, where he was responsible for EUR100bn in assets. In this podcast, we discuss:
- Living in exponential times
- The dramatic change in investment efficient frontiers
- Why expected investment returns could be half compared to recent decades
- How investors will respond to low growth
- The best way to think about risk management
- Taking advantage of extreme market moves
- Using optionality in rates to hedge against risk scenarios
- Where to get returns in a low interest world
- Why gold and defensive stocks are attractive
- How to access private equity
- How the financial industry will evolve
- Books that influence Christian: The Universe In You: Rumi , Mindset (Dweck), Principles (Dalio)
Jon is the author of the widely followed Cheap Convexity blog and always has excellent insights on Fed policy, rates markets and the dollar. In this podcast, we discuss:
- How to think about the Fed’s new framework.
- The rates trade that captures this shift – the Brainard steepener!
- Why a taper tantrum is less likely this time.
- Why the ECB could be more comfortable with euro strength.
- How the Georgia senate elections complicated the weak dollar trade.
- Why precious metals may struggle even with low rates.
- Why technical issues around the Fed balance sheet are overstated.
- Are equities expensive?
- Will US/Euro rates divergence trades work?
- Books that influenced Jon: Trade Wars Are Class Wars (Klein, Pettis), Market Wizards (Schwager) and More Money Than God (Mallaby).
This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare.
Barry Eichengreen is one of the leading thinkers on international economics and exchanges rates. He is Professor of Economics and Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley. He is a prolific author including most recently The Populist Temptation: Economic Grievance and Political Reaction in the Modern Era (2018) and How Global Currencies Work: Past, Present, and Future (2017). In this podcast, we discuss:
- Why past pandemics are a poor guide to the COVID pandemic.
- Have we reached peak political polarization?
- Has financial globalisation constrained central bankers?
- Could the Chinese yuan displace the US dollar as dominant currency?
- The recipe for being the top reserve currency.
- The status of the Euro.
- Why crypto will not topple the dollar.
- The two key reforms for the international financial system.
- Books that influenced Barry: The World In Depression 1929-1939 (Kindleberger), A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960 (Friedman, Schwartz), The Yellen class note (not available online)
Eli is an economist and regulatory hacker living in Washington, DC, and a senior research fellow at the Center for Growth and Opportunity at Utah State University. Before that he was head of global policy at Boon supersonic. In this podcast, we discuss:
- Why we haven’t a replacement for Concorde (yet)
- How vaccine/mRNA breakthrough can help with HIV and cancers
- Anti-ageing and blood plasma transfer
- The problem of energy storage and renewables
- Breakthroughs in geothermal energy
- The future of transportation
- SpaceX Starship could open a new frontier in space travel
- Minitiarisation of chips and circuits and ‘escaping’ Moore’s law
- Why Ethereum has a brighter future than Bitcoin
- A book that influenced Eli: Finite and Infinite Games (Carse)
Happy new year and welcome to our first podcast of 2021. In this episode, we try something different and have curated the best investment ideas from our listeners. They’re a smart bunch so well worth listening to. Here are the ideas discussed:
- Buying clean energy (Invesco Wilderhill Clean Energy ET [PBW]) – Rohan Yelvigi (NY)
- Buying Japan stocks (iShares MSCI Japan ETF [EWJ]) – Peter Repetto (NY)
- Buying healthcare and financial sector equity volatility – Stephen Howard (HK)
- Position for equity correction – Lorenzo Lorenzi (Milan)
- Low inflation (selling inflation breakevens) – Dominique Dwor-Frecaut (Los Angeles)
- Selling US 20y rates – SN Vaidya (London)
- Buying pound sterling (GBP/USD) – Eric Zijdenbos (London)
- Buying GBP/USD upside options – Arun Sundaram (London)
- Buying FX volatility – Karl Massey (London)
- Buying Swedish Krona (selling EUR/SEK) – Ken Dickson (Edinburgh)
- Buying Chilean equities (iShares MSCI Chile ETF [ECH]) – Alex Schober (NY)
- Buying Turkey (FX and equities) – Philipp Birkan (Vienna)
Michael Auerbach is the Founder of Subversive Capital, which is dedicated to investing in radical companies. He sits on the Board of Directors of Tilray, Inc. – the first Nasdaq-listed global cannabis company – and holds several directorships with companies that Subversive invests in. He also serves as a Senior Vice President at Albright Stonebridge Group, the global consulting firm chaired by former Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright. In this podcast, we discuss:
- Launching a SPAC (SBVCF) with Jay-Z for the cannabis sector
- The bullish case for the California cannabis market
- Why Canada’s legalization of cannabis has still seen illicit trade increase
- The financing challenge for cannabis companies
- Why brands are where the value is
- How the Biden administration will accelerate legalisation
- The political and cultural reasons for banning cannabis over alcohol
- The Portugal case of decriminalisation
- Books that influenced Michael: Far From the Tree (Solomon), How to Change Your Mind (Pollan), Sapiens (Harari), History of Sexuality (Foucault), Glas (Derrida), King Leopold’s Ghost (Hochschild), Malcolm X, Say Nothing (Keefe)
Dr Ashley Lenihan is a leading expert on the relationship between foreign direct investment and national security and is the author of ‘Balancing Power without Weapons: State Intervention into Cross-Border M&A’. She is the Head of Policy and Engagement at the British Academy of Management (BAM), a visiting Fellow at the London School of Economic’s Centre for International Studies, and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. In the podcast, we discuss:
- Why countries block foreign investment/M&A deals
- Types of measures used to block or mitigate deals
- Evolution of US policy on foreign investment (CFIUS, FIRMA)
- Examples of US vetoes
- Will Biden change CFIUS approach?
- How data is new front for regulating foreign investment
- The unusually broad scope of new UK regulation
- Advice to companies who engage in cross-border M&A
- Books that influenced Ashley: Theory of International Politics (Waltz), National Power and the Structure of Foreign Trade (Hirschman), Power & Interdependence (Keohane and Nye) and Isolationism (Kupchan)
This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare.
One of our most popular guests, legendary Jim Leitner, returns on this episode. He gives his take on the big picture themes of the day, how best to implement trades and much more, specifically we discuss:
- Why the rotation trade from growth to value may not work
- The importance of looking at the structural trends in undervalued sectors
- Why today’s tech boom is different from the dot-com mania
- The problem with 60:40 portfolios.
- The importance of real estate investments
- How low bond yields change how to value equities
- The power of digital options in implementing views and the bullish CNY story
- The ‘risk arbitrage’ of vol-focused market makers and trend focused investors
- The importance of limited trades a year
- The relationship between demographics and equities and the positive Japan story
- Reshoring and smart manufacturing
- The potential of bitcoin
- Advice for early career, and recommended books Checklist Manifesto (Gawande) and Superforecasting (Tetlock)
In this show, I talk with Professor Kevin Dowd. He is professor of finance and economics at Durham University and an adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute. He has written extensively on the history and theory of free banking, central banking, financial regulation, and monetary systems. His books include Private Money: The Path to Monetary Stability, Laissez‐Faire Banking and Alchemists of Loss: How Modern Finance and Government Intervention Crashed the Financial System. In this podcast we discuss:
- Was government intervention in 2020 the right thing to do?
- The capital problems of the banking and insurance sectors
- Why free banking (no/light regulation) works
- The problem with MMT
- Why debt levels matter
- How negative rates could hurt
This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare.
I’m a big fan of the new HBO show Industry. It follows a group of young graduates competing for permanent positions at fictional investment bank, Pierpoint & Co. It’s the most authentic depiction of a trading floor that I have seen on a TV show, so I had to get the creators of the show, Mickey Down and Konrad Kay, on to my podcast show. In this podcast we discuss:
- Their backgrounds working at investment banks
- Where they filmed the trading floor
- Why they avoided storylines like insider trading
- How they captured the details of sales/trading and M&A
- What the show tells us about young people today
- Will there be a season 2?
This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare.
In this show, I talk with Professor Yaneer Bar-Yam. He is the founding president of the New England Complex Systems Institute and the founder of EndCoronavirus. He received his SB and PhD in physics from MIT in 1978 and 1984 respectively. Since the late 1980s he has contributed to founding the field of complex systems science, introducing fundamental mathematical rigor and real world application, ranging from the global financial crisis to stopping the 2014 Ebola outbreak. He has advised the CDC, the Chairman’s Action Group at the Pentagon, the National Security Council, the National Counter Terrorism Council, and other government organizations, NGOs, and corporations. In this podcast we discuss:
- Yaneer’s January paper with Nassim Taleb and Joseph Norman on the coming COVID crisis
- Using complexity science to understand pandemics
- The importance of restricting travel and bringing cases to zero
- The mistake of countries that lift restrictions before zero cases
- Why the West managed COVID poorly compared to Asia and Africa
- The poor comparison to seasonal flu
- The economic benefits of aggressive action vs cost of soft lockdowns
- Why the vaccine doesn’t mean countries should lift restrictions
- How investors and the business community can help end the COVID crisis
This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare.
In this show, I talk with Dr. Dirk Willer. He’s a Managing Director and Global Head of Emerging Markets FX and Fixed Income Strategy at Citigroup in NY. His research covers global emerging markets for FX, local rates, and credit. Dirk and his team have been ranked as the top team in the 2019 institutional investor survey for emerging markets strategy in FX and rates. Previously, Dirk worked at Omega Advisors and RHG Capital as a global macro strategist and at Swiss Bank as Russia strategist. He’s also recently published an excellent new book called “Trading Fixed Income and FX in Emerging Markets: A Practitioner′s Guide”. In this podcast we discuss:
- How markets treated the US election like an EM election
- Impact of Biden’s win on major EM
- Why EM does well with the vaccine breakthroughs
- Which EM will do best in post-COVID world
- Will EM inflation pick up?
- Can EM survive higher US rates?
- Is China a good long-term buy?
- Should we be worried about Brazil’s fiscal numbers?
- How much does EM depend on global factors?
- Trading rules for EM markets
- Books that influenced Dirk: Market Wizards, The Great Escape: Health, Wealth, and the Origins of Inequality, Deaths of Despair and the Future of Capitalism
This episode is supported by private equity platform Moonfare.
In this show, I talk with Professor Justin Stebbing. I had him as a guest in July when he argued that we could see a COVID vaccine around US election time. He was right and so I wanted to get his latest views. For background, Justin is a professor in the Faculty of Medicine at Imperial college London. He specializes in cancers and immunotherapies. He has an extensive research background having published over 550 peer-reviewed papers. Earlier this year, he published in the Lancet new research on using AI to find drugs to treat COVID-19 and recently published in Foreign Affairs China’s global role in vaccine distribution. In this podcast we discuss:
- The significance of Pfizer’s 90% efficacy rate
- Vaccines from other pharma companies including from Russia & China
- The science of vaccines – B-cell and T-cell responses
- Fast tracking of vaccine approval by FDA
- Managing public opinion and anti-vaxxers
- Logistics of vaccine distribution
- When will we get to herd-immunity
- Remaining uncertainties around vaccines
- Mink factories and mutations
- Long COVID and athletes
- Which countries have secured vaccine supplies
The US election did not see the Democrat wave that many had expected, so I have US Presidential history expert of Cambridge University, Gary Gerstle, return to our podcast show. He gives his take on all things US elections and beyond. In this podcast we discuss:
- The parallel Presidencies of 1876
- The current risks of unrest if the results are not certified soon
- What pollsters missed
- Were the Democrats too left or not left enough?
- How will Biden manage the left and a Republican Senate ahead of 2022 midterms
- The return of state rights over central government
- How a divided congress shifts power to the President and the Supreme Court
- The profound importance of the Republicans winning State legislatures
- Thoughts on a Georgia Senate run-off
Michael was Managing Director and Senior Research Advisor in Multi-Asset Strategies at BlackRock. Prior to that he was head of Currency and Fixed Income Research in the Global Market Strategies Group at BlackRock and Barclays Global Investors. Michael is currently Executive Director of the Master of Finance program and also serves as Executive Director of the Pacific Center for Asset Management at UC San Diego. He has been a visiting scholar at the Federal Reserve Board, the International Monetary Fund, and the Bank for International Settlements. In this podcast we discuss:
- The difference between quantitative and fundamental investing
- How to systematically earn alpha in FX markets
- How to think about FX carry and momentum strategies
- Does flow data have any value?
- How the QE-era has fundamentally changed FX investing
- The importance of China and the Chinese yuan
- How to use machine learning for trading
- Why understanding transaction costs is critical
- How to benchmark the performance of currency managers
- Papers mentioned: Preserving Alpha: The Effect of Trade Size and Rebalancing Frequency on FX Strategy Returns and Active Currency Investing and Performance Benchmarks
- Books that influenced Michael: Active Portfolio Management and Autobiography of a Yogi
John Kay is one of the UK’s leading economists. His books on the tax system, corporate strategy and banking have been widely praised. He helped establish the Institute of Fiscal Studies, is a fellow at St. Johns College Oxford, and was the first dean of Oxford’s Saïd Business School. In this podcast we discuss:
- The importance of science for policymakers and why they do not use it more
- The problem with the focus on short-term earnings
- Why people are pro-social rather than individualistic
- Why the 1970s failed and later why neo-liberalism failed
- Why productivity could be under-estimated
- The problem with the rights movements
- The need for decentralization and disciplined pluralism
- How the EU helps the creation of smaller states
- Why regulation is helping big banks
- The importance for businesses not to obsess about profits
- Recent book that influenced John: The Secret of Our Success (Joseph Henrich)
Gary is Paul Mellon Professor of American History at Cambridge University. Before that, he was at Vanderbilt University where he was James G. Stahlman Professor of American History. He is a social and political historian of the twentieth century, with substantial interests in the late eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. He got his PhD from Harvard University. He has also testified before the US Congress on immigration matters. In this podcast we discuss:
- How Trump deviates from Republican orthodoxy
- How Biden could continue Trump’s protectionist policies
- US climate-change related immigration challenges
- Historic parallels of protectionism and anti-immigration
- How Trump’s break from democratic norms is unprecedented
- How Trump differs from Richard Nixon and Andrew Jackson
- When was the last time the US was as polarised as today
- The challenges of a Biden administration
Corey recently wrote an excellent piece on market liquidity and I had to have him as a guest. For background, he is co-founder and Chief Investment Officer of Newfound Research, a quantitative tactical asset management firm. At Newfound, he is responsible for portfolio management, investment research, strategy development, and communication of the firm's views to clients. He holds a Master of Science in Computational Finance from Carnegie Mellon University. In this podcast we discuss:
- How central banks have pushed investors up the risk curve
- How central banks have introduced moral hazard to investors
- The importance of passive investing as marginal flow into assets
- The impact of passive on how trades are executed
- The procyclicality of HFT liquidity provision
- How dealers hedging magnifies volatility shifts
- The prevalence of volatility contingent strategies in markets
- When do liquidity cascades end
- How to position of liquidity cascades
- Books that influenced Corey: Fooled by Randomness (Nassim Taleb) and Red-Blooded Risk (Aaron Brown)
Helen is Professor of Political Economy at Cambridge University. She has been at Cambridge since 1994, and is at present, Deputy Head of the School of the Humanities and Social Sciences. She is a regular panelist on the excellent podcast show Talking Politics. She has recently been focusing on the political economy of oil, Brexit and the euro zone crisis. In this podcast we discuss:
- The current state-of-play in Brexit talks
- How state aid issues have become more importance since COVID
- The purpose and implications of the Internal Market Bill
- Why the EU wants a deal
- Could Boris Johnson face a leadership challenge?
- How Scotland could get an independence vote
- The challenge for Labour around England and Scotland
- UK’s new flexible foreign policy balancing EU and US
- Should central banks target income inequality
- Books that influenced Helen: David Copperfield (Charles Dickens) and The Radetzky March (Joseph Roth)
Vitor was the Vice President of the ECB until a few years ago. And before that held numerous high-profile roles including being Portugal’s finance minister, the central bank governor of Portugal and negotiating the entry of Portugal into the EEC – the forerunner to the EU. Vitor is currently President of the Council of ISEG at the University of Lisbon and a Professor at the Navarra University in Madrid.. In this podcast we discuss:
- The evolution of monetary policy since the 1970s
- Is there a limit to the size of central bank’s balance sheet?
- How low inflation accelerated ECB QE
- Why central banks cannot control inflation perfectly
- Does the ECB target the euro
- Views on the Fed’s new average inflation target and whether ECB will follow
- Why QE and loose fiscal policy is not MMT
- Should central banks target income inequality
- How the ECB can support climate change policies
- Why fiscal policy is needed more than monetary policy
- And Twitter footnote: Europe’s two downside risks – delays in recovery fund disbursements and credit supply issues.
Charlie McElligott is the leading experts on all things positioning, flow, sentiment and quant factors. He is a Managing Director and Cross-Asset Macro Strategist for the Global Markets Americas business at Nomura Securities International, with more than 15 years’ experience in macro markets. Prior to joining Nomura, Charlie was Head of US Cross-Asset Macro Strategy at RBC Capital Markets. Before that, he spent eight years at UBS. In this podcast we discuss:
- Understanding the impact of low real yields and “everything duration” trade
- How momentum and secular growth (tech) trades have converged
- Will value trades ever work?
- What indicators to use to identify sharp market reversals
- The importance of dealer gamma
- What happened during the summer melt-up in tech
- Views on recent market correction
- Favourite trades around US election
- Personal stuff: Charlie’s paleo approach and longevity supplements
- Books: Jon Krakauer’s “Into Thin Air”
Michael Pettis is someone who I have followed closely over my career and he is one of the most widely followed China experts in the investor community. He is currently based in Beijing and is Professor of Finance at Guanghua School of Management at Peking University and is the co-author of the recently published book “Trade Wars Are Class Wars”. In this podcast we discuss:
- How economists don’t understand debt
- Understanding when high savings rates work for countries
- How advanced economies investment needs changed since 1970s
- How trade surplus countries like China and Germany suppress the household wages and income
- Why China’s high savings rates will now only lead to higher debt, rather than growth
- How Spanish workers are harder working than German workers
- How the US and UK are forced recipients of excess savings
- Why high debt levels lead to low rates
- The problem with official Chinese GDP data
- The importance of the US dollar as reserve currency
- Why the Chinese yuan will not collapse
- Recommended books: the works of Kindleberger, Adam Tooze’s The Deluge, Eichengreen’s Golden Fetters, Mark Nelson’s Jumping the Abyss: Marriner S. Eccles and the New Deal, 1933-1940
I’m always on the lookout for podcast guests with unconventional backgrounds, and on this episode, we have one such guest, Lyn Alden. Lyn has an academic background in engineering and currently works at an aviation simulation facility. But on top of her day job, she has developed a widely followed framework for investing in markets. Her approach is value with a global macro overlay and she’s been doing this research for over fifteen years. I learnt a lot in our conversation, and I’m sure you will too. In this podcast we discuss:
- The differences between today’s tech boom and the dot-com period
- How she is currently playing tech stocks
- Finding value in international stocks and in quality stocks
- Metrics to use for quality
- Underappreciated sectors like tobacco and energy
- Views on Tesla, Amazon and Apple
- Looking at equally-weighted vs market-cap weighted stock indices
- Bullish on China tech
- How to think about debt cycles and the special case of Japan
- Bullish views on gold and bitcoin
- Book that influenced her: Big Debt Crises
In this episode, I talk with Professor Laura Veldkamp. Laura presented one of the key papers at the Federal Reserve’s 2020 gathering at Jackson Hole. Her paper co-authored with Julian Kozlowski and Venky Venkateswaran on 'Scarring Body and Mind: The Long Term Belief Scarring Effects of COVID-19' will likely be viewed as a seminal paper in years to come. Laura is a Professor of Finance at Columbia University's Graduate School of Business and a co-editor of the Journal of Economic Theory. She’s a frequent consultant for the New York and Minneapolis Federal Reserve Banks. She is also the author of the textbook, Information Choice in Macroeconomics and Finance. In this podcast we discuss:
- Importance of the knowledge economy
- How alternatives to rational expectation models need to be used when dealing with tail events
- The critical role of the reactions and belief scarring from events like pandemics
- Why the long-term costs of COVID will be ten times larger than the current year costs
- How safe haven assets will be in even more demand, which will keep rates low
- The role of data accumulation in economies
- The limits of big data
- A book that influenced Laura: Guns, Germs and Steel
In this episode, I talk with David Beckworth. David is the host of one of my favourite economics podcasts, Macro Musings. He is also a Senior Research Fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University and a former international economist at the US Treasury. He is the author of Boom and Bust Banking: The Causes and Cures of the Great Recession. His research focuses on monetary policy, and he has advised congressional staffers on policy. In this podcast we discuss:
- What did the Fed do right and wrong in its COVID response
- How the Fed is losing independence
- The advantages of price level and average inflation rate targeting
- Why nominal GDP/income targeting is the best approach
- What has caused the 30y decline in US rates
- How the Fed should be reformed
- Books that influenced David: Secrets of the Temple and Less Than Zero
In this episode, I talk with Shahraab Ahmad. Shahraab was previously the Chief Investment Officer of the credit fund Decca Capital. Prior to launching the fund in 2015, he managed the Hutchin Hill Liquid Credit Strategy (2008-2013). From 2005 to 2008, he was a partner at Sailfish Capital, where he traded global relative value within credit, and prior to that, he was Co-Head of the HY Credit Trading Group at J.P. Morgan (1999-2004). In this podcast we discuss:
- The early years of CDS trading
- Transitioning from the sell-side to hedge funds
- How credit markets are less efficient today than in the past
- How the 2008 crisis compared to the 2001-2002 credit crisis
- The challenges of launching your own fund
- How he traded the COVID crisis
- Potential value in NY residential real estate
- The opportunities in Venezuelan bonds
- How to use SPACs to gain value
- How central bank QE could help hide corporate fraud
- The book that influenced his trading the most
In this episode, I talk with Stephen Roach. Stephen is well known for his 30-year stint at Morgan Stanley, where he was Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and Chief Economist. He’s currently a Senior Fellow at Yale University’s Jackson Institute of Global Affairs and a Senior Lecturer at Yale’s School of Management. At Yale, he has introduced new courses on “The Next China” and “The Lessons of Japan.”. He’s an author too with his recent book published in 2014, which is called Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China”. In this podcast, we discuss:
- How poor public health investment has made the recession worse
- Implications of the US’s diminished role on the global stage
- Three reasons for the dollar’s coming decline
- The problem with the lack of US savings
- Why investment has been too low
- The problem with Trump’s China policy
- The need for Europe to stand up on the global stage
- Likely Biden policies if he wins
- Life after Wall Street
In this episode, I talk with Governor Dr Reza Baqir who became the 20th Governor of the State Bank of Pakistan in May 2019. He took the helm as Pakistan embarked on an ambitious reform plan which included an IMF programme. Before that, he was an 18-year veteran of the IMF and previously also worked at the World Bank. He was the Head of the IMF's Office in Egypt and Senior Resident Representative from 2017 to 2019. He has also held positions as IMF Mission Chief for Romania and Bulgaria, Division Chief of the IMF's Debt Policy Division, and Head of the IMF delegation to the Paris Club. His research has been published in top journals of the economics profession, including the Journal of Political Economy and the Quarterly Journal of Economics. In this podcast we discuss:
-
The state of Pakistan’s economy and financial markets before COVID hit
-
The reasons for and status of the IMF programme
-
How Pakistan’s markets behaved over COVID
-
The transition from a fixed FX regime to market-determined FX regime
-
The path of FX reserves
-
How the State Bank has shifted to an expected inflation target
-
COVID policies outside of cutting rates
-
Longer-term goals of boosting exports, financial inclusion and raising saving rates
-
How global institutions have responded to the COVID crisis versus GFC
-
The role of debt reduction rather than debt rescheduling for EM
In this episode, I talk with John Llewellyn. John is the co-founder of Llewellyn Consulting – a leading independent economic advisory firm. Before setting up the firm in 2009, John had various research roles including being the Global Chief Economist at Lehman Brothers, Head of International Forecasting and Policy Analysis at the OECD and teaching at the Faculty of Economics of the University of Cambridge. In this podcast, we discuss:
- Forget talks of V-, W-shaped recoveries, it will take years to return to pre-COVID output
- COVID adds to challenges of adapting to Fourth Industrial Revolution
- Why haven’t real wages risen?
- Are we mismeasuring growth, investment and productivity?
- Why inflation won’t rise meaningfully
- The pros and cons of MMT
- The surprisingly good EU budget/recovery fund
- Germany’s U-turn on frugality
- The transition challenges of Brexit
- China’s pressure cooker and India’s steady release
- Climate change – a 5-degree temperature increase changes everything
In this episode, I talk with Edward Misrahi. Edward is the CIO and Founder of Ronit Capital – a leading emerging markets focused hedge fund. He founded the fund in 2013, before that he was a founding partner of Eton Park Capital. Edward started his career at Goldman Sachs – where amongst other things he worked in the famous Risk Arbitrage group and later become a partner. In this podcast we discuss:
- The 1994 Mexico crisis and learning how to buy distressed assets
- The 1997-1998 Asia/Russia/LTCM crisis and the importance of correlations
- The problem with hedging and importance of thinking of gross positions
- How to think about the US factor when trading EM markets
- The three ingredients of EM crises
- Be careful of overweighting politics
- Decluttering the investment process
- COVID’s decoupling of markets and the economy
- Market risks still remain
- Which EM markets look good
In this episode, I talk with Professor Justin Stebbing. He is a professor in the Faculty of Medicine at Imperial college London. He initially trained at Oxford, before having a residency at the Johns Hopkins Hospital in the US, then returned to the UK to work at the Royal Marsden, Barts and now Imperial. He specializes in cancers and immunotherapies. He has an extensive research background having published over 550 peer-reviewed papers. He recently published in the Lancet new research on using AI to find drugs to treat COVID-19. In this podcast we discuss:
- Current vaccine trials
- Absence of COVID-19 reinfections
- Why is vaccine development faster than before
- Low mutability of COVID-19
- Symptoms of COVID-19
- Why are minority groups experiencing higher infection rates
- Why are elderly being affected the most
- Views on the Sweden approach
- Why is the US death rate not higher
- Policy recommendation
In this episode, I talk with Samm Sacks. She is a Cybersecurity Policy and China Digital Economy Fellow at New America. Her research focuses on emerging information and communication technology (ICT) policies globally, particularly in China. She has worked on Chinese technology policy issues for over a decade, both with the U.S. government and in the private sector. She recently testified before Congress on data security issues between the US and China. In this podcast we discuss:
- Why data flows matter
- Does the China government have access to all data in China
- How Chinese companies push back on data requests
- Are US tech firms helping the Chinese government?
- The right approach for the US dealing with China tech/data issues
- US companies need to manage US data better too
- EU is creating global standards
- EU is pushing back on US accessing European data
- Will US election impact US-China tech war?
This episode is sponsored by SGX – the largest Asian FX exchange.
In this episode, I talk with Raghuram Rajan. He is currently Professor of Finance at Chicago Booth. Before that, he was the 23rd Governor of the Reserve Bank of India between September 2013 and September 2016. Between 2003 and 2006, Dr. Rajan was the Chief Economist and Director of Research at the IMF. He’s the author of several books – most recently, the excellent “The Third Pillar: How the State and Markets are leaving Communities Behind” in 2019. In this podcast we discuss:
- The sources of economic weakness around COVID
- The 5 steps policymakers need to take from relief to reform
- The fallacy of MMT and the absence of free lunches
- Debt levels matter - for every Japan, there is an Argentina
- Should international markets be liberalized?
- Dollar’s status as reserve currency
- China’s challenging growth prospects
- India’s wrong turn
- Rise of authoritarianism
- The failure to understand fall-out from international treaties
- What needs to be done to be optimistic about the future
In this episode, I talk with Chris Crowe. Chris is Head of Economic & Flow Research at one of the world’s leading hedge funds, Capula Investment Management. He was previously UK Economist at Barclays for two years and prior to that, worked at the IMF for five years. He has also published in top economic journals. In this podcast we discuss:
- Why bond yields have trended down in recent decades
- The role of safe assets in this downtrend
- Likely shifts in the supply and demand of safe assets and impact on bonds
- Whether central banks have been captured by fiscal authorities
- Whether the Fed will move to yield curve control
- Whether Fed or BoE will move to negative rates
- US economic outlook
- How Brexit and COVID are impacting UK
- Germany vs rest in EU
In this episode, I talk with Saeed Amen. He is the founder of Cuemacro, which provides investors with quant research and analysis. Over the past fifteen years, Saeed has developed systematic trading strategies at major investment banks, including Lehman Brothers and Nomura. He is also the author of “Trading Thalesians: What the ancient world can teach us about trading today” and is the coauthor of “The Book of Alternative Data”, which is due out later this year. He is also a visiting lecturer at Queen Mary University of London. In this podcast we discuss:
- Types of trading models, including trend-following and carry
- How to design good trading models.
- Avoiding data mining
- Whether certain strategies are becoming too crowded
- Why trend-following models have underperformed
- Examples of alpha models like trading month-end flows
- Importance of reducing transaction costs
- Types of alternative data
- How to use news data
- The non-technical challenges of using alternative data
- Why Python is an important complement to Excel
In this episode, I talk with Lord Mervyn King. He needs no introduction, except to say he is one of the leading figures in central banking over the past few decades. He served for ten years as the Governor of the Bank of England, which included dealing with the 2008 financial crisis. He’s written a number of books including the recent bestseller with co-author John Kay “Radical Uncertainty: Decision-making Beyond the Numbers”. Here’s what we talk about:
- Defining uncertainty - difference between radical uncertainty and black swans
- Use of narratives to understand uncertainty
- Importance of resilience and preparedness
- Why central banks have done too much during COVID
- The importance of fiscal and other policies to deal with major economic challenges
- His view on negative rates
- Should central banks mandates be changed to target financial imbalances and inequality
- Could inflation head higher?
- Is climate change the only long-term risk to consider?
- How his work on radical uncertainty has changes his view of economics
In this episode, I talk with Dominique Dwor-Frecaut. She’s an accomplished macro thinker that has worked at leading hedge fund Bridgewater, the NY Fed and the IMF. She’s also been an early advocate for a V-shaped recovery. We covered lots on the podcast including:
- Why a V-shaped recovery is likely
- The panic pandemic
- How productivity could jump after COVID
- What could see inflation rise
- How income inequality is distorting the economy
- The coming backlash against monopolies
- Why expansion of central bank balance sheets is not a problem
- China’s new assertiveness
- The possible demise of the Hong Kong Dollar
- Germany saves Europe
- View on equities
You can find most of Dominique’s views on macrohive.com.
In this episode, I talk with Professor Alex Edmans from the London Business School. He’s one of the world’s leading academics on company purpose, social value and profits. In fact, he’s just come out with a book on the subject called “Grow the Pie: How Great Companies Deliver Both Purpose and Profit”. We covered lots on the podcast including:
- Is a company’s sole purpose to deliver profits?
- How markets do not correctly price in social value in the short-term
- The problem with restrictions on executive pay
- Could hedge fund activism be helpful?
- How the management styles of Continental Europe compare to the Anglo-Saxon model
- Creating the “growing the pie” mindset
- How to define purpose and use it to run a business
- Is the financial sector useful?
- Is there a place for share buybacks?
- Does ESG work?
- How companies should deal with COVID
- Time management tips
- The pitfalls of managing a team in lockdown.
In this episode, I talk with Emiel Van Den Heiligenberg. He is the Head of Asset Allocation at one the world’s largest asset managers, Legal and General. His fund is one of the fastest growing multi-asset funds and has been a top quartile performer over the last five years. In his own word, Emiel replaced rowing with French Fries, but has continued to instill the teamwork from his rowing team into his investment team. We covered lots on the podcast including:
- Why markets have recently rallied
- The earnings challenge for equities and his preference for credit
- The dominance of tech and tactical picks in equity laggards
- The Thucydides trap for US-China and the risk of messy transitions between hegemons
5.How COVID could accelerate populism
6.The Dutch concerns around EU integration - Permanent scarring of the global economy from COVID
- Re-opening approaches that minimize economic impact
- Current favourite trade ideas
- How to structure and manage teams for success
- The pitfalls of managing a team in lockdown
You can follow Emiel’s and his team’s thoughts on the LGIM blog here.
In this episode, I talk with Alfonso Prat-Gay. He was Governor of the central bank of Argentina from 2002 to 2004 and later Argentina’s Finance Minister between 2015-2016. I had the pleasure of working under Alfonso during my J.P Morgan days in the late 1990s, and I hold him up to be one of my most influential mentors. We also have a scoop about Alfonso and the Bank of England.
On the podcast, we cover a very wide range of topics including:
- The pre-COVID global trends from the US’s incorrect policy mix to slowing Chinese growth
2.Why Latin America has struggled with growth for decades - Why COVID hurts the poor the most economically
- How can emerging markets escape the middle-income trap
- The challenges of being a policymaker in Latin America
- The failure of the IMF
- The lack of leadership in Latin America
- The possibility of using QE by emerging markets
- What the UK needs during Brexit
- Argentina’s restructuring
The podcast is longer than normal, but it’s well worth the listen.
In this episode, I talk markets with Juliette Declercq. She’s a leading macro strategist and runs JDI research. She has close to twenty years market experience, including stints at J.P Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Stone Milliner.
On the podcast, we discuss:
- Why using past recessions is not a guide to the COVID crisis
- Why P/E ratios are a poor guide to equity valuation
- Not putting too much weight on weak employment data
- Why Euro-area break-up trades are not attractive
- Her view on the dollar and euro
- The prospects of inflation.
In this episode, I talk politics and markets with Bobby Vedral. He’s a top macro and political analyst who runs Macro Eagle. He is also the UK representative of the German Economic Council, which focuses on the German-British relationship post-Brexit. Before that Bobby was at Goldman Sachs, where he was a partner and Global Head of Market Strats.
On the podcast, we discuss:
- The structural consequences of the COVID crisis
- What the stress points are for the Euro-area and which countries are at the center of tensions
- How the latest German constitutional court ruling could constrain the ECB
- What’s going to happen with Brexit
- The widening China/rest of the world political rift
- Why Biden would likely beat Trump in elections and the importance of Biden’s VP pick
- The problem with big tech’s monopoly
- The future of climate change policy and ESG
- The dramatic increase in risks of global political brinkmanship
Bobby gives a very thoughtful and often different from consensus view on key political issues of the day, so make sure to listen to the whole episode. You can reach him at info@macroeagle.com.
In this episode, I have a wide-ranging conversation with the FT’s Chief Economics Commentator, Martin Wolf. He brings a depth to any topic that is often lacking anywhere else. On the podcast, we discuss:
- The parallels of the COVID crisis with past crises such as the ones seen in the 1970s
- The uniqueness of this crisis
- How well policymakers have done so far
- The role of international organisations and US hegemony
- The challenge for EM countries
- How China will be viewed after this crisis
- What tensions will emerge in the EU
- How the world will look differently after COVID
In this episode, I have a conversation with the super-smart and provocative thinker and investor, Alex Gurevich. In our wide-ranging chat, we discuss recent lessons learned, views on markets and risks to look out for. Specifically:
- How not to become attached to one asset class or investment style.
- How every crisis delivers something you’ve never seen before
- Why crisis moments are when you should take most risk.
- Why bonds can still be attractive even when yields are low
- How keeping exposure to equities is still wise even if more declines are expected
- Why Europe is a buy
- How China has survived a major stress test
- How to trade EM markets.
- How supply chain failures are the biggest risk for the global economy.
In this episode, I have a conversation with one of the top macro investors that I’ve come across, Jim Leitner. He has an impressive track-record, but more importantly, is very thoughtful and can go from talking about the nuts and bolts of options trading to how political regimes change. In the podcast, we talk about:
- How not to become attached to one asset class or investment style
- Whether options are over-priced
- The path of the dollar
- Which companies and sectors will succeed in the COVID world
- Which EM markets are most attractive
- How to play China most effectively
- Whether we should worry about central banks printing money
- Why macro hedge funds have underperformed in recent years
In this episode, I have a conversation with one of my favourite global economists, Phil Suttle. He’s got the credentials having worked at J.P. Morgan, the Fed, World Bank, Barclays and Tudor, but it’s his analysis that stands out. In the podcast, we talk about:
(1) How to forecast growth when economies lock-down.
(2) Whether the policy responses so far will make a difference and how Asia is behaving differently.
(3) The chances of a second-half recovery.
(4) How the world will look after COVID.
(5) How inflation could finally arise.
(6) How the euro-area could finally meet its biggest challenge.
We talk about this and much more. Make sure to subscribe to the show on Apple, Spotify or wherever you go for your podcasts.
In this episode, I have a conversation with one of the leading experts on gold, John Butler. He has spent 25 years in the financial industry, worked at some of the top banks and has even written a book on gold (The Golden Revolution). In the podcast, we talk about:
- Valuation frameworks for gold
- The relationship between oil and real interest rates with gold
- The insurance properties of gold
- How gold behaves around regime changes in political and monetary systems
- Comparisons between gold and bitcoin
- Projections for gold in the next few years.
It’s a great discussion, so please enjoy.
In this episode, we’re lucky to have a conversation with one of the most original macro thinkers, the Macro Dilettante. He prefers not to disclose his name, but I’ve known him for years and is a super experienced market pro having worked at asset managers, in alternative investments and at pension funds. Back in January, he warned me about the global consequences of COVID and I mistakenly didn’t heed his advice until much later.
During our conversation, we talk about the importance of understanding time as well prices in markets, the significance of pension funds in this crisis, the possibility of bonds selling-off and what policymakers should do to fix the crisis.
With the country in lockdown, we’ve decided to launch a podcast show to better reach our audience. In our inaugural episode, I speak to George Goncalves about the recent volatility in markets, what’s going in dollar cash markets, what the Fed can do and whether we could enter a depression.
I also review some of the pieces we’ve put out on Macro Hive over the past week including ones on tracking the COVID virus, the odds of a US recession, the importance of real yields and the possibility of stagflation.
Please subscribe to the show and spread the word!
Bilal