World of Short Selling: Recent Episodes
Jan Svenda
I chat with Edwin about the following;
- What has he learned from his newsletter and what is he doing next
- Which activist shorts campaign has been overlooked
- How is he increasingly using FOIA requests
- Which campaign was flawed and what is he looking at now
...and much more.
Be sure to check out his new offer for the Bear Cave subscribers!
This episode contains the following and rough timestamps;
0.20 What made Edwin impersonate Harvey Weinstein on babysitting platform care.com
18.00 Why Care.com and Stanford got involved and wanted to take down the article
40.00 How is Edwin using documents from Attorney Generals and other sources
48.00 What value does Edwin see in Stanford studies?
52.00 What does he read
57.00 What is Edwin going to do after Stanford
1.02.00 What is Edwin focusing on now
1.12.00 Why are consumer complaints sent to AG worthwhile research source
1.24.00 Edwin’s favourite reports written by others
1.39.00 Edwin’s problem with the definition of edge
Finally, here is Edwin’s Twitter and link to his newsletter.
This week I am going to look at three Chinese companies.
I will start with a summary of a lesser-known campaign on Vitasoy which was targeted by Valiant Varriors. Vitasoy is allegedly a classic Chinese fraud exposed by looking at the subsidiary-level financials.
I will follow-up on QTT, the short of Wolfpack which features similar allegations to Vitasoy. Except QTT is up 44% since the call.
Finally, I will quickly talk about NIO, the Tesla clone burning insane amounts of cash which seems to be currently in a now or never position.
I would also like to thank Breakout Point for data that I used in preparation for the podcast. Breakout Point is a great platform for those interested in tracking ongoing short campaigns.
If you want to ensure that you do not miss any new activist campaigns or any updates to already published reports, be it SEC filings, new tweets by short-sellers or press releases by the targeted companies, do take advantage of my 10% discount code for the first two months for a subscription to Breakout Point.
You can claim it by going to breakoutpoint.com and subscribing with the code ‘podcast’. Affordable and flexible subscriptions provide a complete and timely overview of what is happening in activist shorting.
Tickers & Reports
- Valiant Varriors on Vitasoy
- Wolfpack on QTT
This episode contains the following and rough timestamps;
0.00 Credit mentality and short-selling
10.00 Market oddities – BB bond yielding 1.5% in a distressed potash business
24.20 Balance-sheet driven focus and looking for companies that are forced to grow
31.00 Why is Jeremy not primarily focused on fraud
39.00 Peleton and the question of trading (Netflix)
43.30 One thing Jeremy took away from shorting Tesla
50.10 Jeremy’s best and worst trades (Quicksilver and cannabis stocks)
58.00 How does Jeremy think about timing – looking for zeros
61.00 Shorting NIO (NIO)
78.00 Jeremy’s best short pick now – Westshore (WTE.TO)
89.00 What would Jeremy do more of if he were to start all over again
Finally, here is Jeremy’s twitter and his website.
This week I am going to look at three campaigns.
One will be about none other than Tesla and the lengthy report done by Plainsite, the docket site run by Aaron Greenspan.
The other short will be from Black Mamba who targeted Varta AG, a German maker of batteries used in earphones such as airpods.
Lastly, I will provide a short update on Triple-S management, the short of Friendly Bear.
I would also like to thank Breakout Point for data that I used in preparation for the podcast. Breakout Point is a great platform for those interested in tracking ongoing short campaigns.
If you want to ensure that you do not miss any new activist campaigns or any updates to already published reports, be it SEC filings, new tweets by short-sellers or press releases by the targeted companies, do take advantage of my 10% discount code for the first two months for a subscription to Breakout Point.
You can claim it by going to breakoutpoint.com and subscribing with the code ‘podcast’. Affordable and flexible subscriptions provide a complete and timely overview of what is happening in activist shorting.
Tickers & Reports
- Plainsite on Tesla (TSLA)
- Black Mamba on Varta AG
- Friendly Bear on Triple-S Management (GTS)
This episode contains the following (rough timestamps);
0.15 Start in short-selling and Big Short
5.00 Background in bankruptcy and fraud litigation
9.30 Focus on two and three sigma ideas
15.30 How people misinterpret MLPs
18.00 Stanford International Bank – Ponzi with larger losses than Madoff
31.00 Learning Lessons – Be aware of your dividend yield
34.30 Sourcing ideas from others
37.30 Unserviceable debt and shorting oilfield services
53.00 Who is Adam following?
59.30 Worst trades – Do not argue on valuation
1.06.00 Worst trades – Anticipate short position doubling on you
1.11.15 Timing and sizing
1.18.00 Mallinckrodt (MNK) – Potential zero with catalysts in 2020
1.30.00 McDermott (MDR) – Example of trading near-bankrupt company
1.36.00 Options trading
1.42.00 Did Adam Neumann know WeWork is dubious?
1.45.00 What would Adam do differently if he started again?
Finally here is Adam's Twitter and Seeking Alpha page.
This week I am going to look at two new campaigns.
One will be from Citron about the infamous bike company Peleton, subscribers of which are now valued by the market with a price of one bike and 28 years of their subscription plans. Citron believes that this makes the company extremely overvalued.
The other will be from Aurlies Value which targeted NBIX a pharma company that employed at least 64 employees from Avanir which had to pay a large fine for allegations of fraud and kickbacks. Chief Commercial Officer of NBIX is supposedly the same person as the one who was heavily involved with an alleged kickback scheme in Avanir.
I will also provide an update regarding ATNX which is short of Viceroy and talk about a relatively new short-selling website called Utopia Capital and their focus on small-caps which showcase supposedly dubious share price action.
Before we start, I would just like to remind you that all you hear on the podcast are opinions. I am not a registered investment advisor, please do your own due diligence. Short selling can hold risks that are different from going long.
I would also like to thank Breakout Point for data that I used in preparation for the podcast. Breakout Point is a great software tool for investors interested in tracking ongoing short campaigns.
Tickers & Reports
Citron on Peleton (PTON)
Aurelius Value on Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX)
Utopia Capital on GRN Holding Corp. (GRNF)
This week’s episode is going to include a great contrast between the short targets.
On one hand, we will see a complex target composed of a Canadian retailer that is facing several fundamental issues. This could lead to credit downgrade which should present a downside.
On the other hand, we have my favorite biotech, Enochian Biosciences whose head scientist pleaded guilty to commercial burglary and is a support of the Spoon Bender, a magician who allegedly can bend spoons with his mind. Over the past two weeks, White Diamond Research found new information that makes ENOB the craziest and most overvalued biotech that WDR has ever seen.
I would also like to thank Breakout Point for data that I used in preparation for the podcast. Breakout Point is a great software tool for investors interested in tracking ongoing short campaigns.
Tickers & Reports
- Spruce Point on Canadian Tire Corp. (CTC)
- White Diamond on Enochian Biosciences (ENOB)
- Blue Orca on Kasen (HK.0496)
This episode contains the following (rough timestamps);
0.15 How did Gabe start at Viceroy through PI work
6.00 Difference in fraud across geographies
7.10 Gabe’s specific focus
8.10 Sourcing of ideas
9.10 Being CC’ed to consumer complaints
10.10 Screening of ideas
13.00 Decision-making regarding publishing a report
15.10 Dreaded timing of short selling
19.00 Best and worst trade
24.00 Instagram feed and fake-wig test
28.20 Athenex (ATNX) and why is still a short
51.50 Pretium (PVG) thesis also holds
56.00 Prosieben (PSM) has likely played out, but the business model is still questionable
58.00 Capitec (CPI) potentially one of the most abusive financial institutions
64.40 Shorting outside of US – The German experience and scare tactics against critics
71.00 Closing remarks on Mimedix (MDXG)
72.40 Shorting after the first major drop
82.50 Who calls Gabe – Gabe from Spiceboy Research
84.00 The most ridiculous response of the management
88.00 Why the name Viceroy?
89.00 What would Gabe do differently if he had to do it all over again?
Finally, here is Gabe’s Twitter and Viceroy’s website.
This episode contains the following;
This week I am going to look at the carnage that happened at Kasen, an alleged complete Chinese fraud, US-listed Chinese biotech that is likely lying about their facilities. A Puerto-Rican holding company whose insurance subsidiary is likely insolvent.
Last but not least, I will highlight a campaign targeting US-listed biotech whose head scientist is apparently Nikola Tesla, Leonardo Da Vinci, and Einstein in one person. He also believes people can bend spoons with their minds. I really recommend listening to the whole podcast just to hear this incredible story.
I am not going to look at Tesla although that presentation was certainly another piece of gem into the hall of TSLAQ.
Tickers & Reports
Blue Orca on Kasen (HK.0496)
Viceroy on Athenex (ATNX)
Friendly Bear on Triple-S Management (GTS)
White Diamond Research on Enochian Biosciences (ENOB)
This episode contains the following;
This week I am going to look at the continued effort of Viceroy over at ATNX biotech with alleged poor product pipeline and insiders which allegedly siphon cash out of shareholders of ATNX.
I will also highlight a new campaign of Spruce Point which is targeting an SP500 company and alleging fraudulent business practices. This could serve as a strong catalyst for the thesis.
Lastly, I will talk about Culper’s campaign on ProPetro, an oil & gas company that is mired in an SEC investigation that does not seem to be going the right way. PUMP is the company which pays their investor relations director six times the average salary, he is the son of the COO.
Tickers & Reports
Viceroy Research on Athenex (ATNX)
Spruce Point on Cintas (CTAS)
Culper Research on ProPetro (PUMP)
This episode contains the following (rough timestamps included);
0.30 How Ian got a job at Kerrisdale
5.00 Short-selling as a generalist
7.30 What would he do more of if he stared all over again
9.00 Sourcing short ideas through looking for longs
13.00 What is the advantage of smaller short-sellers
17.00 Timing and crowded trades
18.00 Best and worst trade – Argentina
24.30 Research focus and Twitter
25.55 Shorting Solar in 2019
28.20 Shorting boring consumer stocks
32.00 Ian’s current favourite short sector
35.00 Gamestop and other ‘perennial long ideas’
37.00 Timing in retail
40.00 Antero Resource short
46.30 Sourcing of ideas - Strange financing arrangements
49.30 Blue Apron short
53.00 Shorting fads – bitcoin example
57.00 Accounting red flags – Adjusting EBITDA
60.00 Ian’s favourite accounting gimmick
62.00 Ian’s favourite fraud story
64.00 Downside of being a perma-bear and short-only
66.00 How this reflects in the short-selling funds
68.00 US/Europe Governments reaction
70.00 Positing a big short – financial crisis
Below you can find tickers of companies we discussed and are still trading;
- Antero Resource (AR)
- Blue Apron (APRN)
- Gamestop (GME)
- Procter & Gamble (PG)
- Sunrun (RUN)
- Vivint Solar (VSLR)
- Church & Dwight (CHD)
- Tesla (TSLA)
- Nova Lifestyle (NVFY)
Finally here is Ian’s Seeking Alpha profile and Twitter.
This episode contains the following;
A look back at Japanese biotech that has not been able to push a single drug to phase 2 in 13 years, and an oil & gas company which pays their investor relations director over 700,000 $ or six times the average.
Tickers & Reports
Muddy Waters on Peptidream (4587.JP)
Culper Research on ProPetro (PUMP)
Note: The IR salary of Sam Sledge is more like 6x than 7x just to be precise.
This episode contains the following;
This week I quickly note the new campaign of Spruce Point, look at a solar-related company that might be stuffing their channels and a hot new IPO steered by a person who oversaw the bust of Pets.com, a poster child of the dotcom bubble.
Last but not least, I talk about a used car company that is making more money on selling loans than cars and is burning cash despite revenue increases.
Tickers & Reports
Spruce Point on Hill-Rom (HRC) J Capital Research on Enphase Energy (ENPH) Value Digger on RealReal Inc. (REAL) Spruce and Advantage Investor on Carvana (CVNA)
This episode contains the following;
- Adam’s start in short selling during the financial crisis
- Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) and small-caps
- Trading in the small-cap space and story of DCGD
- Adam’s Medical Device focus
- Adam’s best short yet, still actionable? – TRXC
- How Adam handles expertise in the medical device space
- Adam’s worst trade – bankruptcy stock
- How Adam deals with short squeezes
- Adam’s edge in short selling
- Short selling opportunity in BSGM
- A possible scam Adam is now researching
- Adam’s thoughts on shorting outside the US
- Adam’s favourite fraud story, short seller and response of the management
- What would be Adam’s business if he were to be a fraudster
Below you can find tickers of companies we discussed and are still trading;
- Discovery Gold (DCGD)
- Resonant (RESN)
- TransEnterix (TRXC)
- Apyx Medical (APYX)
- BioSig (BSGM) – current favourite of Adam
- Longfin (LFIN)
- ReneSola (SOL) – Adam is currently researching
Finally here is Adam’s Seeking Alpha profile, Twitter and website.
This episode contains the following;
A look back at a medical device company that is allegedly overcharging insurers, a biotech that looks like a classic US-listed Chinese stock and a pair of solar companies with dubious business models.
Tickers & Reports
- Night Market on Zynex (ZYXI)
- Viceroy on Athenexv (ATNX)
- Aurelius on Vivint Solar (VSLR)
- Pedro de Noronha on Sunrun (RUN)
Please note that in the case of VSLR the provision is actually $6.9 million instead of $6.1 million as mentioned in the podcast.