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The ASX 200 is down 18 points (-0.3%) in a dull day of trading so far. Sectors are mostly down. Tech and ASX200 Banks are up 0.1% and 0.2% respectively. Gold losing yesterday’s gains, down 2%. Resources and Energy both down 0.4%, with Defensives also taking a hit. Info-Tech having another dull day, only up 0.1%, with the All-Tech Index down 0.2%. Banks moving higher with the Big bank Basket up 0.3% to $180.99. BrainChip Holdings (BRN) falling 6.1% after announcing a Capital Call Notice to sell 30m shares. City Chic Collective (CCX) continuing their demise, down 3.4% after broker updates. Consumer Confidence has increased to 87.4 in December, but still remains well below the neutral level. Australian CPI Numbers tomorrow. US CPI Numbers Thursday night. US results season starts Friday - we're doing a Diary today. Dow Futures are down 64 points, and NASDAQ Futures are down 37 points.
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The ASX 200 is up 104 points (+1.5%) following yesterday’s violent swing after BoJ’s unexpected changes to bond yield bands. All sectors are up, with Gold leading the way up 5%. The resource sector is the best performer, Metals, Materials and Resources are leading the market higher. Interest rate-sensitive Tech is also up 1.9% with the All-Tech Index up 1.5%. Defensives are all up, Staples, Telecoms and Healthcare 0.7%, 0.6% and 0.6% respectively. TPG Telecom (TPG) is down 3% after the ACCC blocks TLS regional network deal. European Lithium Limited (EUR) is up 15.3% after signing offtake agreement with BMW. The agreement grants BMW the first right to purchase 100% of the LiOH produced from the identified resources at Wolfsberg. Dow Futures are up 135 points, and NASDAQ Futures are up 42 points.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity.
Sign up for a free trial to get access to expert insights and independent research to become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Article mentioned: The One Stock Portfolio
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity.
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity.
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity.
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity.
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity.
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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The US and Aussie markets continue to bounce amid solid earnings results, whilst there are receding worries about tonight’s US inflation number. Marcus follows up his misleading chart theory with part II, Henry takes a look at iron ore, and Chris launches his new Theme Thursday segment…. Plus much, much more.
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Tags: marcus strategy
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity
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We take the usual look at the overnight markets, the market today, and today Henry has a look at the Banks, Chris notes some technical buy signals on Resources and we ask the question "What theme will make or save you money in 2022".
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In today's meeting, we discuss the overnight markets which include a 25% fall in Facebook after hours. We look at the main events this morning discuss some brokers stuff and the question of the day is "What stock would you never buy?" - Some interesting answers to that.
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We have an exciting development for you today, and we think you'll love it.
Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day. The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity. We calculate that Henry and Marcus have been through close to twenty thousand of these meetings over the last 40 years and unable to shake off the habit, we continue to have these meetings daily. Then, last week, someone had the bright idea that maybe our Members would love to be a fly on the wall in these meetings as well, and we thought "Why not!?"
So, in the spirit of our motto - "Building a Community of Better Investors" - we say "Welcome Members" to the Marcus Today Morning Meeting. Episode 1. Let's see how this goes.
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MARCUS SPI - We address the current conundrum - Dead Cat bounce or meaningful bottom? We look at the average correction, the worst-case scenario and do some amateur technical analysis all of which points to the same conclusion. We do a few ASK MARCUS replies and warn you about the RBA today - could they suddenly harden up?
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Still waking up wondering whether the US has moved 1000 points and that tells the whole story. We are in uncertain times. We aren't going to cash up the portfolios, it's not precipitous so much as 'grinding' but the message to those who have cashed up is that there is no rush back in. This year looks like hard work compared to last. We look at what the Fed delivered last night, the risk of a Ukraine shock and we look at a few RSI sell signals, a few oversold stocks and mention a few ideas, the best one of which is to give the stock market away for a while and go and play golf.
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We look at the unprecedented volatility overnight as the market runs scared of the Russians invading the Ukraine and the FOMC raising rates on Thursday. A higher than expected Australian inflation number this morning hasn't helped. We discuss whether we should be buying or selling and the reasons to be miserable or cheerful. Is this correction 'normal' or 'precipitous' is the question and we have a stab at answering that.
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We have closed all the short term trades in the IDEAS section, declared a mild desire to hold more cash but haven't done anything about it yet, we look at the trend in the US market (breaking the uptrend) and provide a fabulous spreadsheet listing all the ASX listed ETPs - Exchange Traded Products - includes all the ETFs and listed Managed Funds. We also look at all the most recently listed ETFs and in so doing identify all the latest "fads" in the stock market.
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Why not sign up for a free trial? Get access to expert insights and independent research and become a better investor.
We survive the US CPI number and if anything it's provided a few reasons not to worry about interest rates - despite a record number. We are adding to BHP holdings today and discuss the imminent increase in the BHP index weightings in Australia. We talk about why you should ignore sell recommendations in FMG, look at the Us results season that's about to start, sell DMP in the IDEAS section and herald a new IDEAS WATCHLIST focus moving forward.
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A couple of new trading ideas today as we join JP Morgan in saying the recent tech sell-off has been overdone. We also look at debt, how it changes management and which companies will be disadvantaged by higher interest rates if and when we get them. We also talk POS and the Machiavellian plot , discuss a few themes in the portfolios, and are on guard for the US CPI number tonight which is central to the interest rate debate.
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Welcome Back - Today we have POST-IT NOTES for 2022 - predictions for this year along with a look at ARB, PNV, MFG and some strategy bullet points for the day.
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The US market is close to all-time highs, the Australian market has had a good year, the US market has had twice as good a year. The volumes on Wall Street last night were a record low for this year as we slide quietly into the Christmas Buffers without too much to worry about. As it should be. Today I present you with a Marathon Education Article about "10 THINGS THAT WASTE YOUR TIME" as investors, some IDEAS that are bubbling away in the background and tomorrow I will regale you with all my PREDICTIONS for 2022, which include the likely and the ridiculous.
MT Christmas Advent Sale! This works like an advent calendar – we’ll be revealing a new sale offer for you every other day until Christmas and you have two days to redeem each offer. Once it’s gone, it’s gone forever!
Find out what is on offer today.
And the wheels on the bus go round and round - stay tuned for tomorrow's change of mood because we've had another one today. Omicron will not cause lockdowns says Biden and the Tech sector, Travel and Energy bounces. Almost all the Australian BNPL stocks hit 52-week lows yesterday and are primed for a change of Tech mood. I'm not buying into it. Not keen on buying into anything in this sideways trade ahead of Christmas. We look at the ASX 200 and the S&P 500 technically - both are waiting for a new trend. I give you a prediction for the ASX 200 in 2022 and we give you a few IDEAS but have yet to action any of them.
MT Christmas Advent Sale! This works like an advent calendar – we’ll be revealing a new sale offer for you every other day until Christmas and you have two days to redeem each offer. Once it’s gone, it’s gone forever!
Find out what is on offer today.
MT Christmas Advent Sale! This works like an advent calendar – we’ll be revealing a new sale offer for you every other day until Christmas and you have two days to redeem each offer. Once it’s gone, it’s gone forever!
Australia outperforming thanks to our lack of Tech. Omicron risk over the holidays. New lockdowns in Europe could upset Christmas. US GDP downgrades start. The new threat to growth is ill-timed considering the timetable for tapering and interest rate rises in the US. Biden's Bill delay doesn't help. A couple of ideas. No portfolio changes.
MT Christmas Advent Sale! This works like an advent calendar – we’ll be revealing a new sale offer for you every other day until Christmas and you have two days to redeem each offer. Once it’s gone, it’s gone forever!
Find out what is on offer today.
All getting a bit Ho Hum as we roll into Christmas. The Market has no momentum and we wait to see if the FOMC Meeting tonight can set a trend or kill it. Comments today on CSL's big acquisition and on WOW's profit warning yesterday. Both remain "Forever" stocks. Looking to reverse our cash call but there's no rush. A few technical observations finish off the section and will hopefully keep you amused whilst not much happens.
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Back from a pointless attempt to star in the Victorian Senior Amateur Golf Championship and the Omicron risk has all but evaporated. The precipitous risk has passed - we are getting back into a couple of sold stocks, adding an idea and declaring the intention to reverse the cashing up decision at an appropriate moment.
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No need to be buying into the current trend. Happy to be cashed up in the RBP and cashed up a bit in the FUFU and DAF portfolios. We've cleared out the IDEAS PORTFOLIO except for a holding in DMP. Sitting back waiting for the market to decide if Omicron is a problem or a hiccup. Today we look at the winners and losers if Omicron's going to stay around a bit longer.
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All's well in the iron ore trades as the iron ore price pops again helped by Macquarie research. All the signs from the US to NZ suggest interest rates are going up. Another bit of property sector research says house prices are about to peak. The Aussie dollar is falling. Holidays are getting cheaper in Europe. May have made a mistake in gold.
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Quite a bit going on today - We have sold a Forever stock, bought two trades and added a couple of stocks to the WATCHLIST. Lots of strategy themes and a bit of portfolio news. We also compare Australia's ASX 200 to the S&P 500 and make some interesting observations.
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Powell back in with a mandate to contain inflation. Rates rise, the US dollar rises and Gold and Technology stocks fall. Hopes for Chinese policy easing boosts iron ore stocks. We may have timed the bottom on that after all. Gold on the nose as inflation war begins. The CBA are telling us mortgage rates are going up and the housing market will peak. Chinese Tech on the nose again. Robinhood's shareholders going from rich to poor. BHP and Woodside sign the deal and the prices pop. Australian Tech having a bad day.
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Lots of news - AGM season in full flight as well as a few results around. The CBA fell 8% on its update yesterday. We look at what to do now. The Macquarie share purchase plan is coming up - we talk about that as well. Then there's the MIN AGM, the SHL AGM, the EVN acquisition (its up 8%), the SEK AGM, and a bunch of others. We also look at XRO post results and update the IDEAS PORTFOLIO.
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Routine day. CBA disappoints - like WBC. NIM down and losing home loan market share, presumably to Macquarie. No change to strategy. US$ pops giving resources a dull day. Good for international stocks but not commodity prices. Biden-Xi chat lands well. We've added a new stock to the IDEAS PORTFOLIO. Have also published a WATCHLIST which might interest some of you.
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Not much going on today. We look at money printing. Wonder when "The Big One" is coming. Two new ideas today and the first incarnation of the IDEAS PORTFOLIO. Telstra's Investor Day doesn't disturb. Resources and Gold turn up on the Technical buy signals list. DAF (Dividends and Franking) Portfolio on its way this week.
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Today I launch the new FUFU portfolio. Find out which stocks meet our "Forever" criteria and which don't. We also have a good look at the US CPI number and wonder if it will be the catalyst for a correction. There is a new IDEA OF THE DAY and we look at the Australian jobs number which is weaker than expected and has dropped the market this morning.
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Day two of the MARCUS SPI section. We did the RBP (really boring portfolio) yesterday and have turned our attention to the FUFU portfolio today. It will be published soon. In the meantime, we have the first FUFU stock for you and a couple of early ideas in the IDEAS section.
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Today we introduce the new MARCUS SPI section, your go to spot for Strategy Portfolios and Ideas. Today we do a strategy roundup and tackle the REALLY BORING PORTFOLIO (RBP) which involves restructuring the existing ETF portfolio into a long-term market matching portfolio with a strategy overlay. We have moved all the fun ETFs into Henry’s charge, he has started an ACTIVE ETF PORTFOLIO today. NAB results looked okay today but the share prices dropped.
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Today we look at the FOMC who have delivered a taper without a tantrum. The central banks have done a good job this week diffusing a bond yield blip and announcing the taper, the timing of which most strategists have spent the last year speculating about. It’s done. DMP dropped 17% this morning after the AGM yesterday. Or is there something else going on? Z1P makes us cringe despite a dazzling AGM presentation. Bank dividends coming up. AMP a risk ahead of an investor day. US markets at record highs but overbought. VUL might be bottoming for traders. ECX saw some big broker upgrades and buy recommendations.
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Feeling brave enough to call the end of the bond market panic after the RBA meeting yesterday. All the headlines they needed to put out they put out. Interest rates are not going up in the short term. Bond Yields are going down again and the equity market is relaxing. The iron ore price dropped 6%. Looking to time the bottom on the iron ore stocks still. Facebook gets rid of faces. COP 26 losing focus as the US have a spat with China and Russia. FOMC Meeting tonight. US jobs numbers on Friday. Bank dividends coming up.
Today we have a look at the interest rate scare last Friday and wonder whether it will continue this week. RBA meeting today of course with the FOMC on Thursday morning our time. We also look at the bank sector after the disappointing Westpac results yesterday. We talk about Marketech, an independent trading platform with integrity that we have partnered with. NWL bids for PPS which is the platform our SMAs sit on, which could be better for our investors. And Macquarie Boffins assess the Cup betting.
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If you liked this podcast please Sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter to get full access to daily stock tips and recommendations.
If you liked this podcast please Sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter to get full access to daily stock tips and recommendations. Crown M&A possible. Brokers like RWC. Short seller targets VUL. WOW sales numbers disappoint - their most challenging quarter ever and is a pandemic beneficiaries it’s not a good reopening trade. Brokers opinions subdued about a stock trading at a PE 50% higher than it was pre-pandemic. Evergrande situation rolls on. A2M down 10% on sales numbers taking the rest of the infant formula stocks with it. Elon musk worth more than Exxon. Inflation numbers at 11:30 AM. RBA next week. FOMC next week. ANZ results tomorrow. Macquarie results Friday. Bank of Queensland ex dividend tomorrow. Busy US results calendar this week and next. Most shorted stocks section in the newsletter today.
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I will be launching the new MARCUS SPI section on November 9. We preview that along with the Maverick Portfolio (MP Portfolio). A good spot for all ideas, quality, irresponsible or otherwise. Today we have a strategy summary with clear instructions for investors and traders. We also talk about “Secret Thoughts” we probably shouldn’t have or publish. We have an update on POS, three “Barking Dog” ideas, Chris has a reopening trade and we publish a US reporting calendar (150 companies report this week). Plenty of other stuff to go on. Enjoy.
If you liked this podcast please Sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter to get full access to daily stock tips and recommendations.The quiet bull market continues. Travel falling. Bitcoin rising. PPT, ORA, S32 and AMP in the news. BlueScope Steel has an upgrade. Today we talk about timing the iron ore stocks. There is an obvious opportunity...but when? Evergrande has started trading again in Hong Kong after a long suspension and the damage is minimal. Chinese property developers are bouncing quite hard. It takes the pressure off our resources stocks. Today’s podcast has a lesson in growth stocks. Big quality stocks are great unless they are high PE growth stocks in a correction. Nothing is sacred when sentiment turns and today I list 20 of the most vulnerable big stocks the next time the market tips over.
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US market ramping up on good results. The September sell-off looks like a buying opportunity as the long-term trend resumes. Seems the FOMC message about tapering and higher interest rates has got through and the market doesn’t mind. RBA minutes yesterday say the same thing as before, property market hot but rates not going to rise until 2024. Credit Suisse has listed a bunch of takeover targets with some interesting candidates. After the production numbers yesterday the BHP research is a bit flat although Macquarie thinks it’s worth 38% more than the current share price. Aristocrat Leisure getting a unanimously positive response to yesterday’s acquisition. The capital raising shortfall was covered 10 times. Today we have a look at the REBALANCE TRADE - buying stocks before they get included in the ASX 200. A full explanation of how it’s done and which stocks are in line for inclusion in December.
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All a bit quiet. BHP production numbers not well received. A lot of iron ore stocks with buy signals at the moment. Coal price looks like it’s topping out. Goldman Sachs says the housing market is topping out. A new bitcoin ETF starts trading on the US market tonight. Queensland borders to open on December 17 or sooner keeps the reopening trade going. Everyone likes Aristocrat Leisure. A few AGMs, none of them rocking the boat. US results season continues. Quarterly production numbers season continues. AGMs continue this week. The Evergrande situation remains benign, until it doesn’t.
If you liked this podcast please Sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter to get full access to daily stock tips and recommendations.Lots of interesting little things going on today. Two major messages include the link between BHP in Evergrande which could help us time the bottom on iron ore stocks in particular. The dogs are barking in the infant formula. Technical and sentimental bottoms on A2M, SM1, BUB as talk of approval for a Chinese Covid 19 vaccine which will allow students back into Australia and the daigous to restart operations. A good deal for S32 sees buyers. Everyone’s a buyer of Bank of Queensland after it fell 4% on results yesterday. The SMA platform sector is booming as Netwealth jumps on record FUM numbers. Plus the usual macro mumbo-jumbo on jobs and interest rates. Changes in the Marcus Today podcast:
What started out as one strategy podcast has now morphed into many more. Taking the feedback we have received from members and to make it easy to follow and navigate the various episodes, we have decided to split the Marcus Today podcast into four separate podcasts.
- Marcus Today Market Updates (Includes Breakfast Briefing and End of Day Report)
- Marcus Strategy (this is going to be the original Strategy podcast again)
- On the Couch
- On the Desk
All of these podcasts are available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Amazon Music and many other podcasting apps. For a link to your preferred app, visit the podcast website above. We will be adding more apps to the list as we go.
For the best experience, we recommend using a podcasting app on your phone as then you can subscribe and get notified whenever new episodes are released.
If you need help, please reach out to us on info@marcustoday.com.au or 0458 009 821.
On the Desk is now a podcast of it's own!
This is the last episode that will be available here so to listen to new episodes, click on the link below to find it on your preferred app and make sure you subscribe to the new podcast:
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
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Plus it's also listed on many other platforms so if your preferred platform isn't listed above, just search for it.
This week on the desk, the boys discuss the best and worst investments they've ever made, both from a stock perspective and in the rest of their lives. Plus, we get an update on the One Stock Per Sector Portfolios, with a bit of a gap opening up in the field.
Head to the new podcast to listen to the full episode.
On the Couch is now a podcast of it's own! This is the last episode that will be available here so to listen to new episodes, click on the link below to find it on your preferred app and make sure you subscribe to the new podcast:
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Google Podcasts
Amazon Music
Buzzsprout
Stitcher
iHeartRadio
Podcast Addict
Pocket Casts
Deezer
Listen Notes
PlayerFM
Podcast Index
Plus it's also listed on many other platforms so if your preferred platform isn't listed above, just search for it.
In this episode of On the Couch, Henry catches up with his good friend Adam Dawes from Shaw and Partners. They talk three sectors Adam is buying currently and which stocks in these sectors. Plus a stock to hold for your kids and where Adam sees the market going by Christmas.
As usual, Adam is a great source of investment ideas and always has something interesting to say.
Adam is a regular guest on Ausbiz, CNBC, other media outlets and is a senior broker at Shaw and Partners, one of the best small brokers in the market with a terrific research team.
If you liked this podcast please Sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter to get full access to daily stock tips and recommendations.
Bond yields rising and Dow Futures falling. Evergrande situation quietly bubbles in the background. Iron ore bouncing but brokers are not convinced. Westpac with a $1.3bn provision but the market not fussed. AGM season is on but CSL and TLS hardly moved on theirs. Aluminium plays rally. Iron ore research views disagree. Asian Tech bouncing. 3rd Q results in the US this week hold some risk.
Changes in the Marcus Today podcast:
What started out as one strategy podcast has now morphed into many more. Taking the feedback we have received from members and to make it easy to follow and navigate the various episodes, we have decided to split the Marcus Today podcast into four separate podcasts.
- Marcus Today Market Updates (Includes Breakfast Briefing and End of Day Report)
- Marcus Strategy (this is going to be the original Strategy podcast again)
- On the Couch
- On the Desk
All of these podcasts are available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, Amazon Music and many other podcasting apps. For a link to your preferred app, visit the podcast website above. We will be adding more apps to the list as we go.
For the best experience, we recommend using a podcasting app on your phone as then you can subscribe and get notified whenever new episodes are released.
If you need help, please reach out to us on info@marcustoday.com.au or 0458 009 821.
- The ASX 200 closed down 20 points to 7300 (0.3%) on a decent bounce from lows. 10-Year yields pushing higher again hurting tech stocks and yield sensitive REITs but helping banks. Miners did well on iron ore and record coal prices in China on flooding and mine closures. BHP rose 0.9%, RIO up 1.9% and FMG up 5.3%, the coal stocks in demand, YAL up 13.8% and WHC rallying 6.2%.
- Gold miners drifted higher with NCM up 1.9% and oil and gas higher with STO up 1.5%. Healthcare a little under the weather today, CSL down 1.0% and RMD down another 1.0%.
- Industrials also on the nose as SGR issues with organised crime and money laundering surfaced and dropped 23%. WES fell 1.1%, TLS down 1.0% and tech under pressure with the All-Tech Index down 1.9% led by APT off 4.2% and XRO down 4%. REITs eased on higher rates and banks shrugged off earlier losses to see the Big Bank Basket up to $187.24, 1.1%.
- In corporate news, ALD looks set to win ZEL with both stocks rising, STX delivered its maiden Perth Basin gas reserve. ASIC crashed a pump and dump chat room targeting YPB up 25.00%.
Win up to $3000 by picking the best performing stock on the ASX. Submit your entry for the One Stock Portfolio Competition today.
US markets didn’t know what to make of the jobs numbers on Friday night, which missed expectations badly although Covid restrictions distorted the seasonal element of the read. We’re set for a slightly softer start this morning according to Saturday morning SPI Futures. Get in the know with Henry’s morning update.
- ASX SPI 200 Futures down 4
- US Markets slightly weaker on disappointing jobs number.
- Commodities firm.
- Oil up 0.54%
- US Reporting season kicks off this week. Columbus Day in US tonight.
Win up to $3000 by picking the best performing stock on the ASX. Submit your entry for the One Stock Portfolio Competition today.
- The ASX 200 up 63 points to 7320 (0.9%) rallying hard into the weekend on better news from China, higher commodity prices, US debt ceiling news and a breakout of optimism ahead of the US jobs data. Resource stocks leading the charge higher as punters focused on BHP’s oil and coal exposure sending the stock up 3.0%. FMG rose 2.4% as China returned from Golden Week and the PBoC withdrew stimulus. RIO up 4.0% and BSL up 1.7%. Both SFR and OZL had strong bounces and gold miners were slightly higher.
- Oil and gas stocks back in demand, STO up 1.5% and WPL rising 1.4%. Industrials firmed with WOW up 0.6% after resolving an underpayment issue, WES rose 1.3% and SEK and REA rallied well. Tech stocks also in the green, APT up 2.0% following the Square price higher. The All-Tech Index rose 1.42%.
- The Big Bank Basket up to $185.22 (0.8%) with MFG bouncing on broker comments and insurers strong on bond yield rises.
- In corporate news, EML’s attempt to sneak in bad news at the close yesterday failed and the stock dropped 14.6%. ERA have announced the cost of going to rehab, rose, rose, rose and the stock fell then rallied to close unchanged. In economic news, the RBA issued the financial stability report, worried about housing lending and cyber-attacks. Aren’t we all? 10-year yields soar to 1.64%.
- Jobs number in US tonight. European markets opening flat.
Win up to $3000 by picking the best performing stock on the ASX. Submit your entry for the One Stock Portfolio Competition today.
The Dow booked a third winning session in a row overnight, amid progress on the US debt ceiling negotiations. Catch up on all the action with Henry's Breakfast Briefing.
- ASX SPI Futures up 33.
- US markets put in a solid gain, DOW up 1%. Tech rally continues.
- China back on stream today.
- Oil prices pick back up.
- RBA Financial Stability report at 11.30am
Win up to $3000 by picking the best performing stock on the ASX. Submit your entry for the One Stock Portfolio Competition today.
- The ASX 200 kicks 50 points higher to 7258 (0.7%) in tentative trade. A bounce in banks continues with the Big Bank Basket up to $185.22 up 0.6 %. MQG also doing well up 1.7% and MFG down 1.3% as brokers pronounce judgement on FUM losses. Industrials firmed across the board, WOW up 1.5%, WES rising 0.5% on aggressive moves on API up 1.7%.
- Healthcare in the pink, CSL up 0.7%, SHL up 1.5% and COH up 2.6%. Tech stocks were back in demand, APT leading the charge up 3.1% and XRO doing well up 2.8%. Mining stocks relatively flat, BHP unchanged and FMG down 1.9% with China still on holiday. Energy stocks slid back slightly but the energy story has a long way to run. STO down 2.2% and WPL off 0.1%.
- In corporate news, plenty happening in small caps, CXL killed it up 14.4% on a good LEILAC report, SZL rose 14.6% on a Target tie up, RED rose 17.8% on KOTH news, CKF hit record highs on Dutch chicken licking news up 6.9%. Payrolls numbers out today but NSW opening up a positive. Travel stocks somewhat mixed though, QAN down 0.7% and WEB up 1.9%.
Win up to $3000 by picking the best performing stock on the ASX. Submit your entry for the One Stock Portfolio Competition today.
If you liked this podcast please Sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter to get full access to daily stock tips and recommendations.Today we look at the reduced market risk after the debt ceiling deal overnight. We also look at the energy prices which have topped out dramatically as Russia offers to open up the LNG gas pipeline. If you’re going to buy banks for dividends now is the time to look at ANZ, WBC, NAB. A happy-go-lucky day today. Major market concerns seem to be fading. China starts trading again tomorrow (Evergrande may come back on). US jobs numbers the focus on Friday.
This week on the desk, the boys take up the personas of a long-term and medium-term investor to find out the differences in tactics, interests, personality traits, and lifestyle for each of the approaches.
Win up to $3000 by picking the best performing stock on the ASX. Submit your entry for the One Stock Portfolio Competition today.
The Dow staged a 560 point turnaround last night, whilst coal was smashed 20%. These are strange times and you need Henry's Breakfast Briefing... the calm in the storm.
- ASX SPI 200 up 33 points to 7210 after a volatile night in US.
- Early US losses but late rally as debt ceiling pushed back.
- Energy prices ease. Russia to rescue Europe.
- Volatility to continue.
- US reporting season kicks off soon.
Win up to $3000 by picking the best performing stock on the ASX. Submit your entry for the One Stock Portfolio Competition today.
- The ASX closes down 42 points to 7207 (0.6%) after a solid start gave way to banking and interest rate jitters. Whether it was APRA moves on local lending on the RBNZ decision to jack up rates, the market turned from solid but uninspiring to just uninspiring. 10-year yields leapt to 1.59%.
- Banks led the down turn with the Big Bank Basket falling back to $184.15. CBA fell 2.0% on a broker downgrade. MQG also succumbed 0.4% and MFG dropped 4.1% on another disappointing FUM number.
- Industrials eased back, WES fell 1.3%, ALL down 1.0%, TCL off 1.0% and WOW falling 0.5%. Tech was unchanged with APT following square higher by 3% although that may change tonight. The All-Tech Index unchanged, WTC down 3.6% and XRO off 0.7%.
- Travel stocks slid with FLT off 6.6% and WEB down 6.2% Miners were pressured but nothing dramatic, energy stocks paused for breath with STO up 2.3%.
- On the economic front all eyes across the ditch as the RBNZ raised rates. Signalled more to come to fight inflation. In corporate news, A2M fell 7.7% on a class action launched by Slater and Gordon, SWP announced it would acquire Newcastle based telco. US futures eased ahead of crucial debt vote tonight.
Win up to $3000 by picking the best performing stock on the ASX. Submit your entry for the One Stock Portfolio Competition today.
If you liked this podcast please Sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter to get full access to daily stock tips and recommendations.The market doesn’t quite know what to do today. Still in the short-term downtrend. Still holding the long-term uptrend. A few brokers downgrading the CBA, it is the obvious time of year ahead of the other bank results. The property market might be peaking as APRA move to tighten lending rules. Plenty of other bits and bobs today. Henry on Ausbiz at 12pm.
Down one day, up the next... the wild ride on equity markets continues. Overnight US markets posted solid gains, seeing SPI Futures up 36-points. Catch up on all the action with Henry's Breakfast Briefing.
- ASX 200 set for a rebound. Tech and energy the focus.
- SPI up 36 points. US Tech rebounds despite yields pushing to 1.53%
- Oil continues its run. Base metals flat. Coal still in demand.
Win up to $3000 by picking the best performing stock on the ASX. Submit your entry for the One Stock Portfolio Competition today.
- The ASX fell and gathered itself post the RBA announcement with the index closing down 30 points at 7248 (0.4%). Seems the RBA is not for turning and that helped sentiment. Losses across the board but manageable. Banks weakened with the exception of CBA which rose 0.3% after its Buy back result last week.
- The Big Bank Basket steady at $169.92. MFG slipped hard down 3.7% with PNI following suit down 3.3%. Miners were mixed, golds firmed, GOR up 7.2%, SBM up 5.2% and SLR up 5.7%. Iron ore miners drifted lower, BHP down 1.1%, FMG off 1.3%. Industrials eased on places, healthcare down, CSL off 0.2% and RMD falling another 2.9%.
- Energy was a bright spot, WPL up 4.0% and STO up 2.5% but KAR rose 3.1% and BPT up 0.7%. Travel stocks were mixed FLT up 2.0% and WEB off 0.6% with QAN down 1.2%.
- In the tech space, profit taking was the order of the day, APT fell 5.0% to its lowest level since Square deal announced, 2021 gains in the sector are now gone. APX hit a three-year low down 5% and the All-Tech Index was down 2.6%. In corporate news, QAN is on the verge of a huge fleet renewal order. RBA keeps rates unchanged, and timetable remains the same. 10-year yields rise to 1.51%.
Win up to $3000 by picking the best performing stock on the ASX. Submit your entry for the One Stock Portfolio Competition today.
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The strategy piece today looks at all the excuses for the market falling over but there is only one reason. We are in the middle of a slow controlled correction rather than a panicky collapse and the hope is that the bottom will appear as miraculously as the top disappeared. We briefly look at the energy sector, the housing market, some broker research and the market charts.
The rollercoaster ride continued overnight with US markets weaker. The Nasdaq was the worst, down more than 2% as tech stocks tank: Facebook in focus, down 5% on an outage and whistleblower issues.
- ASX SPI Futures down 68 points.
- RBA Meeting today.
- US tech stocks under pressure as Facebook falls on outages.
- Energy stocks in focus as Brent Crude hits US$81.26.
- Gold higher. Iron ore quiet with China closed.
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- ASX SPI up 52 points.
- US Markets rally hard. US Bond yields ease back to 1.46%.
- Commodities slightly better. Energy in focus. Coal prices hot record.
- RBA Meeting tomorrow. NSW Public holiday today. Volumes may be lighter.
Win up to $3000 by picking the best performing stock on the ASX. Submit your entry for the One Stock Portfolio Competition today
- The ASX 200 back down by 147 points to 7186 (2.0%) as enthusiasm reverses. Down 2.1% for the week. US Politics taking centre stage and the debt roof in play.
- Banks under serious pressure as moves to rein in extreme house price rises weighs. The Big Bank Basket down 3.3% to $180.20. CBA the worst of the big four as most exposed to the housing sector losing 4.1%. Other financial also hit hard, MFG down 1.8%, MQG off 2.9% and QBE eased 3.0%.
- Industrials were also under serious pressure, ALL down 4.2%, DMP down 6.3%, WOW warning of some closures this weekend as CV19 restrictions bite. TCL fell 1.6% on its last day of rights trading, REH down 5.3% as a housing play and BLD dropped 2.8%. Healthcare in casualty, CSL dropped 1.5%, RMD down 1.8% and RHC off 1.8%.
- In the mining stocks it was reverse all engines, BHP fell 2.0%, RIO down 2.9% and FMG off 2.6%. Lithium stocks were depressed PLS losing 5.4% and ORE down 4.0%. Uranium though finding some support, PDN up 4.4%. Base metal stocks eased, and gold miners were one of the few spots of green grass in a sea of red. NCM up 0.8% and NST rising 2.5%. Tech mixed surprisingly, XRO found some friends up 1.0% but APT dropped 2.1%. The All-Tech Index falling 1.2%.
- Travel stocks firmed as international flights set to resume. Next month. WEB up 2.0% and QAN up 0.7%. Not much on the corporate front.
- In NSW the Premier resigned ahead of an ICAC inquiry and death rate continued at elevated levels. US futures weaker but off lows.
Win up to $3000 by picking the best performing stock on the ASX. Submit your entry for the One Stock Portfolio Competition today.
A sour start to the new quarter in store as Wall Street drops on political uncertainty.
- ASX SPI down 112 points.
- Iron ore up 3% Gold up 2%
- Oil steady.
- China closed for Golden Holiday week.
Win up to $3000 by picking the best performing stock on the ASX. Submit your entry for the One Stock Portfolio Competition today
- The ASX 200 rose 136 points to close at 7332 (1.6%) on a killer combo of lower bond yields, higher iron ore prices, quarter end buying and US futures heading higher.
- The banks led the charge higher with the Big Bank Basket rising 2.1% to $186.31. MQG up 2.3% and insurers also catching the green blast, QBE up 2.0% and MPL up 2.0%. Big miners were back in demand as bargain hunting and very strong ore prices helped BHP rise 3.4%, FMG up 1.1% despite a death at Solomon Hub and MIN up 3.4%.
- Gold miners saw some selective buying in DEG and PDI and lithium stocks shrugged off the recent depression as PLS rose 3.5% and ORE up 2.4%. Uranium stocks continued to be pressured on lower uranium prices. Industrials were firm although tech stocks seemed to miss the bullish memo.
- The All-Tech Index languished like its big brother the Nasdaq with the index up 0.5% and APT losing 0.5%. That could all change tomorrow with some catch up buying. Healthcare back on the rampage, CSL up 2.3% and FPH doing very well up 2.7%.
- In corporate news, Z1P have done a deal with Microsoft rising 1.3% and ORI had an explosive reaction up 14.5% to the impairments with brokers warming to the story. TCL saw buying as yields fell and the rights shot up 60.3% with one day to go of trade.
- In economic news, the seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwellings approved rose 6.8% in August. Job vacancies decreased by 9.8% (36,200 vacancies) in the three months to August 202. Asian markets firmed. European markets opening higher
- Dow futures up 250.
Win up to $3000 by picking the best performing stock on the ASX. Submit your entry for the One Stock Portfolio Competition today.
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Interest rates drop and the market pops. We look at why the Aussie dollar is going down. The risk in uranium plays. A big stock that might finally be bottoming after two years. A company that is likely to be bid for. The China Evergrande situation - not over yet. And what “Speculative Buy” recommendations really mean.
Catch up on all the overnight action and get the vital leads you need to set up your trading day.
- ASX 200 set for a slight rebound with SPI up 23.
- US markets volatile with late sell off pushing Nasdaq down 34 points.
- Volatility in US 10 years as debt ceiling stalemate continues.
- Commodity prices slip. Crude prices drop around 0.6%.
Win up to $3000 by picking the best performing stock on the ASX. Submit your entry for the One Stock Portfolio Competition today
- The ASX 200 fell hard again today though rallying into the match out falling 79 to 7197 (1.1%) with the banks seeing declines on news that authorities may clamp down on risky lending practices. So glad we had that RC. The Big Bank Basket fell to $182.42 (1%) with CBA off 1.3% and MQG falling 1.7%. MFG continued to fall down 2.2% and PNI also in the sellers’ sights today down 9.1%.
- Big iron ore miners fell again too, BHP off 1.3%, BSL off 3.9% and RIO down 0.6% but FMG spared somewhat.
- Industrials slipped CSL continue to weigh down another 2.6% with TLS down 0.8% and tech off led by APT down 4.2% and XRO down 1.8%. The All-Tech Index dropped 1.9%. Energy stocks saw some profit taking as crude prices drifted back, STO down 1.3% and WPL off 2.2%. Travel stocks feeling a little unloved as Vic case number surpass NSW numbers. QAN down 3.5% and WEB off 1.9%.
- In corporate news, APA extended the bid for AST until the takeover panel can rule on exclusivity whilst SIQ attracted a private equity bid at 1035c from TPG. Nothing on the economic front today but some signs in Asia that Evergrande may be restructured rather than bailed out. The stock rose around 9% in Asian trade.
- 10-year yields rising again to 1.49%.
- Fumio Kishida wins PM vote in Japan.
Win up to $3000 by picking the best performing stock on the ASX. Submit your entry for the One Stock Portfolio Competition today.
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The markets are coming off the top. Today we look at all the excuses although the real reason for the sell-off is not to be found in the macro factors. It is a moment of uncertainty. If you are a bit lost at sea then today's podcast will help you decide what to do.
Catch up on all the overnight action and get the vital leads you need to set up your trading day.
US markets took a dive overnight as bond yields crunched growth stocks. SPI Futures are pointing to an 80+ point fall on the open. Will the market bring up the ton like it did yesterday? Get up to speed with Henry's Breakfast Briefing.
- ASX 200 set for a lower open. SPI down 82
- US markets sold off as bond yields rise and debt ceiling negotiations in focus.
- Oil price hit US$80 for Brent.
- Iron ore down another 5.3%
Win up to $3000 by picking the best performing stock on the ASX. Submit your entry for the One Stock Portfolio Competition today
- The ASX 200 fell hard today down 109 points to 7276 (1.5%). Broad based losses with only energy stocks really bucking the trend. The Banks succumbed to pressure eventually and 10-year yields rose again to 1.46%.
- The Big Bank Basket fell modestly to $184.42 (0.45%) cushioned to some extent by the bond yields. Other financials in the doghouse with ASX particularly hard hit down 2.8%. Insurers dropped too and MFG fell 3.3%.
- Industrials also in the sellers’ sights with WOW down 1.9%, REA off 2.8% on possible lending reforms from the Treasurer, WES down 2.2% and TCL falling 2.0% as a bond proxy. Travel stocks mixed but spared the sword on a reopening plan for NSW. FLT up 1.2% and WEB off 0.5%. REITs slipped led lower by GMG off 4.2% and tech stocks cam in for a battering with APT falling 1.8% XRO down 6.4% and the All-Tech Index down 2.4%.
- In the miners, iron ore price rises were sold into as BHP fell 2.3%, FMG off 5.6% and lithium stocks were depressed, PLS losing 1.4% and ORE off 2.0%. Second liners like LTR and INR especially hard hit. Energy stocks better though STO up 5.6% and WPL up 5.0% with some second liners gaining some attention, BPT up 10.5% after an investor presentation. In corporate news, TUA stole the show up 31.4% with some very decent numbers out of Singapore and the stock rose %, LIS listed today with parent PPK down 0.9% and LIS itself shooting the lights out on big volumes and volatility finishing up 174.1%.
- On the economic front, retail sales were not as bad as some had feared with a 1.7% drop in August and ANZ Consumer confidence up 0.4% to 103.7.
Win up to $3000 by picking the best performing stock on the ASX. Submit your entry for the One Stock Portfolio Competition today.
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The recent rise in bond yields post FOMC is denting the equity market. Despite that here are a couple of sectors seeingsome action as obvious picks for the "Reopening trade". The iron ore price is bottoming. Ideas in the podcast today include Incitec Pivot, A2 Milk and IAG.
US markets were mixed again overnight and SPI Futures are pointing to a weaker start. It's not all bad news, however, with iron ore up more than 7%. Catch up on all the action with Henry's Breakfast Briefing.
- ASX set to open lower SPI down 42.
- US markets mixed as 10-year yields rise. Dow up 71 Nasdaq down 78.
- Iron ore rises 8%. Oil and energy in focus.
Win up to $3000 by picking the best performing stock on the ASX. Submit your entry for the One Stock Portfolio Competition today
The ASX kicked off the week and run into month end in style, up 42 points to 7384 (0.57%) although well off intra day highs.
Lacklustre volumes but good support for banks. The Big Bank Basket rose 2% to $185.40. Other financials also moved modestly higher, with MQG up 1.2% and SUN up 0.6%. Miners too, took a positive step this week as iron ore prices stabilised, RIO up 1.1% and FMG up 2.7%. Uranium stocks took a step back, PDN down 7.8% and BOE off 5.5%. ERA announced remediation costs would be higher and fell 8.9%. Gold miners continue to be out of favour but energy stocks continuing to do well as oil and gas prices rise, STO up 2.0% and KAR up 0.2%.
Industrials were mostly firmer, WOW slipped 0.6% and REA down 1.5% but TLS rose 0.8%, ALL up 0.5% and REH up 2.7%. Healthcare mixed. SIG lobbed a fresh bid at API up 3.1%, out bidding WES by 2c at 157c but a cash and scrip combo. Tech stocks flat as APT fell %. The All -Tech Index dropped %.
Nothing on the economic front and corporate news thin on the ground too. NSW laid out the road map to reopening and travel stocks took off, FLT up 7.5% and WEB up 5.2%.
Win up to $3000 by picking the best performing stock on the ASX. Submit your entry for the One Stock Portfolio Competition today.
Chris and Tom talk about the businesses they admire and the best and worst investing advice they have heard.
US markets were little changed on Friday night but there is plenty on heading into the new week. Get up to speed with Henry's Breakfast Briefing.
- ASX 200 expected to quietly SPI up 2
- Dow closes up 33 points.
- Iron ore flat. Oil prices continue to rise.
- US 10 year yield jumps to 1.40%
- Debt ceiling in focus this week
Win up to $3000 by picking the best performing stock on the ASX. Submit your entry for the One Stock Portfolio Competition today
The ASX 200 finished the week on a soggy note down 28 points at 7343. The market was happy to limp into the weekend after a long week and some frayed nerves. No news from Evergrande on its international bond interest payments putting investors on the side lines. It has now officially passed the deadline but has 30 days to rectify. Banks were stronger as the 10-year yield went through the roof, playing a little catch up to US yields. It hit 1.39% not wanting to be left out. That helped the Big Bank Basket rise to $181.71 up 0.8%.
Insurers also did well, QBE rose 1.7% and SUN better by 0.7%. Industrials though were soggy, WES down 0.2%, GMG down 2.4% and TLS off 0.8%. TCL had first day of rights trading with TCL up 0.36% and TCLR up 13.8%. Healthcare in the casualty ward, COH down 4.8% on a patent issue. RMD fell 3.4% on broker down grades and CSL off 0.3%. Energy stocks were in demand, STO up 1.9%, WPL up 1.7% and KAR doing well up 5.86%.
Miners slipped BHP still under pressure down 1.7%, FMG off 1.2% and gold miners sagged as bullion fell on a stronger USD and bond yields rising substantially. NCM down 2.5% and NST off 4.3%. We saw some light profit taking in some of the sexy new metal sectors like Uranium and lithium. Tech stocks eased with XRO down 2.1% and WTC off 2.1%. APT managed a gain of 0.4% on the Square US price with the Index down 0.2%.
Win up to $3000 by picking the best performing stock on the ASX. Submit your entry for the One Stock Portfolio Competition today.
Catch up with all the overnight action in stocks,commodities and the issues that will drive our market today.
- ASX 200 expected to follow US markets higher . SPI up 8.
- Dow closes up over 500 points.
- Iron ore flat. Gold tumbles 1.2%. Oil prices continue to rise.
- US 10 year yield jumps to 1.43%
- Evergrande in focus but risk receding.
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The ASX 200 rose 73 points to 7370 (1.0%) with a sigh of Evergrande relief as the sun came up after all.
- Banks were dominant despite a rise of around 14% in iron ore. The Big Bank Basket rose to $180.32 with MQG up 2.6% and even MFG up 2.0%. Top bank CEOs were in Canberra talking about the problems with rampant house prices.
- Industrials firmed with NWS leading the way after a buy-back was announced, the stock rose 8.4%, TLS also doing well up 0.8% and SEK 2.1% to the good. TCL returned from its mammoth near $3bn raising and barely budged.
- Tech stocks fared well after APT rose 4.2% on Square’s move, Z1P continued the run from its Indian adventure announcement yesterday, up 4.9%. CPU also stirring up 3.7% and the All-Tech Index showing a solid 2.9% gain.
- In miners, things were slightly muted given the commodity price rises. Uranium stocks slipped, Iron ore stocks improved modestly with FMG up 1.0% and RIO better by 0.6% with MGX up another 2.1%. BHP though failed to launch closing down 0.7%. Action in base metals were dominated by the news from SFR that they had agreed to acquire a Spanish project, Minas de Aguas Teñidas S.A, for a company making or shaking, number of US$1.85bn. Oil and gas firmed with STO up 2.9% and WPL up 1.7%.
- Travel stocks firmed, after the speech from Dan Tehan yesterday, promising international travel by Xmas. WEB up 5.6% FLT up 5.2% and QAN took off 4.6%. In economic news, we had household wealth numbers and all eyes were on Hong Kong as Evergrande rallied 18% as liquidity issues sorted perhaps. At least for now.
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Do you love this podcast? Sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter to get full access to daily stock tips and recommendations. Everybody watching the Evergrande price this morning. Up 30% at one point. The iron ore price bounces 14% prompting suggestions we have seen the bottom. Metal prices up. Travel stocks coming alive again as the Foreign Minister says our international borders will open by Christmas. I've included a couple of ideas for the brave trader today. And much more including a roundup of what the Fed said.
Catch up with all the overnight action in stocks,commodities and the issues that will drive our market today.
- ASX expected to open slightly higher SPI up1 4 after a strong session in US.
- Iron ore rallies 14%. Base metals stronger overnight.
- FOMC talks taper but not yet. Dot plots rise.
- Evergrande crunch day but could be a non-issue.
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The ASX200 shrugged off early losses to close up 23 points at 7297 (0.3%) after some encouraging news on Evergrande debt emerged and the PBoC injected more liquidity into the system. The market did drift off this afternoon into the close. FOMC beckons tonight.
Resources led the way higher with iron ore stocks rebounding from oversold positions. BHP up 2.4% and FMG up 4.2%. Base metal miners also getting in on the act with OZL up 3.0% and IGO rising 1.4%.
Gold miners also finding some support on rising bullion prices, DEG up 4.1%, NCM up 0.6% and EVN better by 1.6%. Oil stocks gained STO up 1.9% and WPL rising 2.4%. Banks were sloppy together with insurers although MQG made gains of around 0.4%. The Big Bank Basket fell to $178.55.
Industrials was mixed to slightly better with REA continuing to see gains and GMG basking in logistic glory up 1.4%. Healthcare also rose with CSL up 0.7% and FPH ahead by 1.0%. Tech stocks were mixed.
Little on the corporate front today, WBC abandoned its plans to sell PNG to KSL, AXE sealed another patent in the US moving up by 4.5% and GMD did the deal of the day up 147.0% after a new strategic funding package from Raleigh Finlayson, the former MD of SAR and NST.
European markets opening slightly firmer.
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Evergrande says it will pay its debts (some of them), China injects more liquidity, and the market bounces. Is that it? Will there be after-shocks? Which stocks do I buy? Plus today we have some buy signals in some beaten up stocks which might interest traders. We also explain what the dot plot is. It will be updated at the FOMC meeting tonight.
Catch up with all the overnight action in stocks,commodities and the issues that will drive our market today.
- ASX expected to open slightly lower. SPI down 14 after a mixed session in US.
- Rally ran out of steam ahead of FOMC meeting and Evergrande deadline.
- Chinese markets back on line today.
- Draftkings bids for Entain.
- Commodities ease. Gold rallies.
Win up to $3000 by picking the best performing stock on the ASX. Submit your entry for the One Stock Portfolio Competition today.
The ASX200 dropped and bounced closing up 26 points at 7274 (0.4%) as worries about contagion waned. Dow futures helping the cause up around 220 points.
RBA minutes showed lower for longer. Despite commodity falls buyers streamed back in with iron ore miners even doing well, BHP up 0.6% and FMG up 0.3%. Second liners also prospered GRR up 3.3% and MGX rising 6.2%. Gold miners were in the green zone today with bullion higher, NCM up 0.8% and NST up 1.0%. BGL had a very good day rising 6.4%. Oil and gas also better led by STO up 1.1% and WPL rallying 1.7%. Healthcare firmed, CSL and RMD leading,
Industrials were mixed with WES firmer by 0.9% and REA up 2.4%. Tech better as the All-Tech Index up 0.8%. APT rose 0.9% and WTC continuing to bound ahead by another 5.1%. Banks were sloppy with the Big Bank Basket down to $179.78.
In corporate news, APA upped the ante for AST with a 260c cash and scrip bid, AST rose 9.8%. MLT is all over as the scheme is now legal and KMD eased back 1.4% after a slight warning on 1HFY22 earnings.
On the economic front, RBA minutes showed lower for longer for record low rates and ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence blip higher.
Win up to $3000 by picking the best performing stock on the ASX. Submit your entry for the One Stock Portfolio Competition today.
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For the first time in months the market has found an excuse for a sell-off. Evergrande is the problem but it's the uncertainty that is the killer. No-one knows who is exposed and where the tentacles of contagion will reach. Or whether the Chinese will save the situation tomorrow. With US markets trading at the highest PE since the tech boom, it doesn't take much to puncture the bubble. Today's podcast explains Evergrande and gives you a clear strategy on what to do next. Also look out for the ON THE DESK PODCAST today.
Catch up with all the overnight action in stocks,commodities and the issues that will drive our market today.
- ASX 200 set for another tough opening with SPI down 98.
- Commodities fall again. Iron ore down to US$94.
- RBA Minutes today.
- All eyes on Asia and the Evergrande crisis.
Win up to $3000 by picking the best performing stock on the ASX. Submit your entry for the One Stock Portfolio Competition today.
Catch up with all the overnight action in stocks,commodities and the issues that will drive our market today.
- ASX 200 set for a weak opening down 68.
- Iron ore falls to $100. Resources likely under pressure.
- TCL buys 49% WestConnex and launches capital raising.
- Big week for central banks, FOMC, BOE and BoJ plus RBA Minutes tomorrow.
Catch up with all the overnight action in stocks,commodities and the issues that will drive our market today.
- ASX 200 set to open lower SPI down 18 points
- US markets mixed in choppy trade ahead of the Quadruple Witching expiry tonight.
- Iron ore falls another 6%
- Gold falls 2% on a stronger USD
- Commodities slip on USD
Win up to $3000 by picking the best performing stock on the ASX. Submit your entry for the One Stock Portfolio Competition today.
Today we look at why the energy sector is undervalued but why you can't get excited about it. We talk about how the resources sector looks like a dead horse that you can't flog any more. I teach you a couple of techniques for picking stocks to trade. The new MARCUS TODAY section is humming along, make sure you have a look at that. Everything you need to know in one spot. Our market having a bit of a boomer. No change to the uptrend yet. The S&P 500 bounced off its 50 day moving average. Long-term investors can relax.
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.Catch up with all the overnight action in stocks,commodities and the issues that will drive our market today.
- ASX 200 set to open higher. SPI up 32 points.
- Unemployment data at 11.30am
- Iron ore falls another 5.8%
- Uranium continues to show gains.
- Telstra Investor Day
- Oil stocks in focus as Brent Crude up 2.5%
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Hot stocks are winning our ONE STOCK PORTFOLIO COMPETITION - Sign up here. Today we look at Hot Sectors and tell you what to do if the correction comes. Yesterday's education video made some Member's eyes bleed. If you have a big mortgage the RBA say don't worry. Upgrades in energy sectors from brokers. Nickel and Lithium - hot and on the trot.
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- ASX 200 set to open lower today with SPI futures down 0.6% overnight.
- US market weaker as CPI numbers missed expectations.
- Iron ore lower and base metals under pressure .
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Are we getting close to the bottom on iron ore? BHP and RIO up whilst the iron ore price goes down. Lithium and uranium both hot to trot. The energy sector flying along as brokers think it's undervalued. Today we talk about education and tell some stories about where Marcus Today came from and how to do broking. We have a video asking "Why would you want to do your own investing?" Some exceptionally overbought and oversold stocks. Duncan Isadora hoisted by her own petard.
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Welcome to the new MT Breakfast Briefing Podcast.
This is for those members that do not want to see a video but would rather have a podcast whilst driving perhaps.
Same content - different format.
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Welcome to the new MT Breakfast Briefing Podcast.
This is for those members that do not want to see a video but would rather have a podcast whilst driving perhaps.
Same content - different format.
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Welcome to the new MT Breakfast Briefing Podcast.
This is for those members that do not want to see a video but would rather have a podcast whilst driving perhaps.
Same content - different format.
CLICK HERE to sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter including our daily STRATEGY PODCAST
An ugly day today as iron ore continues to fall and banks give it up. Defensive stocks doing okay. Tech getting wrecked. We look at the Buffett indicator which agrees with a few US strategists that having doubled in 18 months the market is precarious. We look at the shuffling nickel sector and wonder whether the takeover interest might filter down to the minnows (one day). Most of the brokers don't like Macquarie after their update yesterday but what would they know, they've been wrong so far. Mao Tse-tung and Michael Buble finish us off.
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Welcome to the new MT Breakfast Briefing Podcast.
This is for those members that do not want to see a video but would rather have a podcast whilst driving perhaps.
Same content - different format.
CLICK HERE to sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter including our daily STRATEGY PODCAST
Steady as she goes today. Bitcoin down 17%, Iron ore up 5%, Gold down. Macquarie looking good, up 6% on a presentation and good guidance. Today we ask "Are you one of the Golden Generation" that owned a house or invested in the stock market from 1974 when the stock market and the housing market took off on the back of the "Debt Boom". Star Trek, Michelangelo and Psycho all feature on this day.
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Welcome to the new MT Breakfast Briefing Podcast.
This is for those members that do not want to see a video but would rather have a podcast whilst driving perhaps.
Same content - different format.
CLICK HERE to sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter including our daily STRATEGY PODCAST
Losing a bit of momentum. Wall Street closed. Iron ore takes another dive. We are on "Bottom Watch" on Iron Ore stocks now. Probably a bit late to sell. We look at an income stock probably worth selling. We also look at a technical buy signal on a popular Mid-Cap. Lessons from 20 years of running an SMSF is the main educational content today. V2 Rockets, Elton John's biggest audience and other stuff on this date.
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Welcome to the new MT Breakfast Briefing Podcast.
This is for those members that do not want to see a video but would rather have a podcast whilst driving perhaps.
Same content - different format.
CLICK HERE to sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter including our daily STRATEGY PODCAST
Welcome to the new MT Breakfast Briefing Podcast.
This is for those members that do not want to see a video but would rather have a podcast whilst driving perhaps.
Same content - different format.
CLICK HERE to sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter including our daily STRATEGY PODCAST
Welcome to the new MT Breakfast Briefing Podcast.
This is for those members that do not want to see a video but would rather have a podcast whilst driving perhaps.
Same content - different format.
CLICK HERE to sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter including our daily STRATEGY PODCAST
The market is taking a bit of a beating as BHP goes ex-dividend and the iron ore price falls another 6% after China reiterates its limits on steel production. Coal up. Banks dead in the water. Tech stocks up. Focus on US Jobs tomorrow night. We look at why jobs matter and unveil the ridiculous Australian jobs fudge. RBA Meeting on Tuesday. FMG ex-dividend on Monday. We do a bit of education about dividends and the folly of chasing franking. We have a look at a few Technical scans and note that "On this Day" Japan surrendered and London burned.
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Welcome to the new MT Breakfast Briefing Podcast.
This is for those members that do not want to see a video but would rather have a podcast whilst driving perhaps.
Same content - different format.
CLICK HERE to sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter including our daily STRATEGY PODCAST
Our market proving quite resilient this morning, down 73 early on, as I write it has recovered half of that. Iron ore the main problem. Big dividends coming up. GDP numbers are OK but that may be the peak. Results season over. Trump's tax giveaways being reversed. Nickel price at a record high and stockpiles at a record low. The Beetle Syndrome - how to develop a new fun watchlist. And The Titanic, the Invasion of Poland and an earthquake in Tokyo in 1923.
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Welcome to the new MT Breakfast Briefing Podcast.
This is for those members that do not want to see a video but would rather have a podcast whilst driving perhaps.
Same content - different format.
CLICK HERE to sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter including our daily STRATEGY PODCAST
The last day of the month and (Hooray!) the last day of the results season. We have a look at WES post results - ex-dividend tomorrow but after that looking a bit over-valued. We also look at FMG post results and learn something about broker research in resources and ask "Where to from here" for BHP and FMG. Lots of other points of interest today, a couple of stocks bottoming after results collapses. Lady Di, The Hawker Harrier and Dionne Warwick also feature.
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Welcome to the new MT Breakfast Briefing Podcast.
This is for those members that do not want to see a video but would rather have a podcast whilst driving perhaps.
Same content - different format.
CLICK HERE to sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter including our daily STRATEGY PODCAST
Welcome to the new MT Breakfast Briefing Podcast.
This is for those members that do not want to see a video but would rather have a podcast whilst driving perhaps.
Same content - different format.
CLICK HERE to sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter including our daily STRATEGY PODCAST
Welcome to the new MT Breakfast Briefing Podcast.
This is for those members that do not want to see a video but would rather have a podcast whilst driving perhaps.
Same content - different format.
CLICK HERE to sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter including our daily STRATEGY PODCAST
The market swamped by 40 results today. We are recovering from an early sell-off. All eyes on Jackson Hole. A Member gives us another "Sign of the Top". We paraphrase a great article by Shane Oliver on China. We celebrate the defeat of the French at the Battle of Crecy. But the main value today is in a layman's explanation of money printing, which attempts to explain why interest rates are low, why the US dollar fell over, why the bond and equity markets are up and how the Fed stimulates the economy and manipulates interest rates.
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Welcome to the new MT Breakfast Briefing Podcast.
This is for those members that do not want to see a video but would rather have a podcast whilst driving perhaps.
Same content - different format.
CLICK HERE to sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter including our daily STRATEGY PODCAST
A standard rally day. Travel flying on Pfizer. a vaccine passport idea and the abandonment of CVOID zero targets at the Federal level. Resources recovering. BHP ex-dividend next week. Chinese stocks bouncing. Results everywhere. WTC up 40% on results. LOV up 22%. Today we look at the Signs of the Top again and add a few more. We also look at how "Normal is Great" but only when in a boom. Spring is almost here. Paris was Liberated on this day.
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Welcome to the new MT Breakfast Briefing Podcast.
This is for those members that do not want to see a video but would rather have a podcast whilst driving perhaps.
Same content - different format.
CLICK HERE to sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter including our daily STRATEGY PODCAST
We have recovered 50 points from last week's 150 point loss. Firming up. We look at whether BHP is a gift horse at this price for income investors. TLS ex-dividend tomorrow. A$ and the 10-year bond yield tell a story of economic pessimism. We look at the US market which has blown the top off its trading range, compare Australia and ask, what could be important and shocking enough to cause a correction.
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Welcome to the new MT Breakfast Briefing Podcast.
This is for those members that do not want to see a video but would rather have a podcast whilst driving perhaps.
Same content - different format.
CLICK HERE to sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter including our daily STRATEGY PODCAST
Welcome to the new MT Breakfast Briefing Podcast.
This is for those members that do not want to see a video but would rather have a podcast whilst driving perhaps.
Same content - different format.
CLICK HERE to sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter including our daily STRATEGY PODCAST.
Welcome to the new MT Breakfast Briefing Podcast.
This is for those members that do not want to see a video but would rather have a podcast whilst driving perhaps.
Same content - different format.
CLICK HERE to sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter including our daily STRATEGY PODCAST
Another busy busy day as we try and keep up with results. DMP, CSL, BHP, WPL and PME written up today. We talk about the pandemic risk - rather than get over it we may just be about to run into it again. Tapering talk. Iron ore stocks and what to do - is this the big top or a small top. Doesn't matter, we've gone "Neutral" on RIO and probably will on RIO and FMG after their dividends. Bitcoin. What employers can do about vaccination dodgers and a look at what happened on this day in history. Women got the vote and Butch Cassidy formed the Wild Bunch.
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Welcome to the new MT Breakfast Briefing Podcast.
This is for those members that do not want to see a video but would rather have a podcast whilst driving perhaps.
Same content - different format.
CLICK HERE to sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter including our daily STRATEGY PODCAST
Today we look at the big news from BHP - dual listing gone, oil and gas assets gone. Becoming an ESG sympathetic company - taking the Corporate lead. 30 results today. Henry and I pick three results from yesterday to write up. Four tomorrow. Case numbers explode and the equity market doesn't care - it doesn't care about much whilst the money flows. Chasing our tails for the next couple of weeks. Overbought but no sign of a top.
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Welcome to the new MT Breakfast Briefing Podcast.
This is for those members that do not want to see a video but would rather have a podcast whilst driving perhaps.
Same content - different format.
CLICK HERE to sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter including our daily STRATEGY PODCAST
The market is getting a bloody nose today as results don't impress, the CBA is ex-dividend and ex-entitlement to the buyback, lockdowns weigh, Resources dip as China is doubted, Kabul is a disaster, Defensive stocks doing well (not a great sign), the RBA are predictable and the Big Shorter shorts ARK and Tesla putting his money where his mouth is and his mouth suggests Meme stocks and other equities are in the Mother of all Bubbles. We add a few "Signs of the Top" and add a new section. AXE drops 19.5% and HENRY explains.
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Welcome to the new MT Breakfast Briefing Podcast.
This is for those members that do not want to see a video but would rather have a podcast whilst driving perhaps.
Same content - different format.
CLICK HERE to sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter including our daily STRATEGY PODCAST.
Welcome to the new MT Breakfast Briefing Podcast.
This is for those members that do not want to see a video but would rather have a podcast whilst driving perhaps.
Same content - different format.
CLICK HERE to sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter including our daily STRATEGY PODCAST.
Welcome to the new MT Breakfast Briefing Podcast.
This is for those members that do not want to see a video but would rather have a podcast whilst driving perhaps.
Same content - different format.
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A lot going on today - we cover all the major happenings, pat Henry on the back, give you a warning about how the good times roll and we ask you to provide other Members with your own observations that in hindsight might be"Signs of the Top".
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Welcome to the new MT Breakfast Briefing Podcast.
This is for those members that do not want to see a video but would rather have a podcast whilst driving perhaps.
Same content - different format.
CLICK HERE to sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter including our daily STRATEGY PODCAST
Record highs all round helped by the CBA's good results and their bigger than expected buyback. Everything you need to know about the buyback is in the STRATEGY piece in the newsletter today. The CBA is expensive but who's going to sell ahead of the tender process and the massive fully franked dividend? Similarly trapped are BHP, RIO and FMG shareholders ahead of results and dividends while the iron ore price drops 23%. We look at the charts and ask what we should do. Plenty of other bits and bobs as usual. including a touch of Cliff Richard.
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Welcome to the new MT Breakfast Briefing Podcast.
This is for those members that do not want to see a video but would rather have a podcast whilst driving perhaps.
Same content - different format.
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Today we talk about why the pandemic has been fantastic. Why the S&P 500 is up 102%. Why Goldman Sachs is up 209%. Why Morgan Stanley is up 271%, Apple is up 176% and Facebook is up 167%. We look at the bumper dividends accompanying some results. We look at CBA's results tomorrow. We look at the banks, climate change, relative charts, the research and yet again, lithium stocks.
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Welcome to the new MT Breakfast Briefing Podcast.
This is for those members that do not want to see a video but would rather have a podcast whilst driving perhaps.
Same content - different format.
CLICK HERE to sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter including our daily STRATEGY PODCAST.
Welcome to the new MT Breakfast Briefing Podcast.
This is for those members that do not want to see a video but would rather have a podcast whilst driving perhaps.
Same content - different format.
CLICK HERE to sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter including our daily STRATEGY PODCAST.
Welcome to the new MT Breakfast Briefing Podcast.
This is for those members that do not want to see a video but would rather have a podcast whilst driving perhaps.
Same content - different format.
CLICK HERE to sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter including our daily STRATEGY PODCAST
Robinhood shares double in a week - we look at the difference between sentiment and fundamentals and why you need not beat yourself up when you miss the short term pops or get caught by the short term drops. Otherwise, we're treading water, NCK results were good, it's quadrupled and it's still cheap. Macquarie says BUY on REA two days before the results. We'll find out what they know when the results come out. CSL looks dull. Lots of other stuff.
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Welcome to the new MT Breakfast Briefing Podcast.
This is for those members that do not want to see a video but would rather have a podcast whilst driving perhaps.
Same content - different format.
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A boring day, which is good, it means nothing is going wrong. The RBA didn't delay their tapering, they expect a quick post-lockdown rebound. China cracks down on online games which have 'eradicated an entire generation' with their spiritual opium. We wonder if that was the top for iron ore. We look at the broker opinions of APT post-merger proposal and we see what the brokers have to say on the banks ahead of results from CBA next week, and on the energy sector post the OSH/STO merger.
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Welcome to the new MT Breakfast Briefing Podcast.
This is for those members that do not want to see a video but would rather have a podcast whilst driving perhaps.
Same content - different format.
CLICK HERE to sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter including our daily STRATEGY PODCAST
Our market takes a pause from yesterday's 100 point rally inspired by corporate deals. RBA today. US Jobs on Friday. CBA and Telstra next week. We inevitably look at APT, why it happened, what to do with APT, what sort of investment Square is, whether there will be a counterbid and Henry asks if APT won Gold, who will win Silver.
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Welcome to the new MT Breakfast Briefing Podcast.
This is for those members that do not want to see a video but would rather have a podcast whilst driving perhaps.
Same content - different format.
CLICK HERE to sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter including our daily STRATEGY PODCAST.
Welcome to the new MT Breakfast Briefing Podcast.
This is for those members that do not want to see a video but would rather have a podcast whilst driving perhaps.
Same content - different format.
CLICK HERE to sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter including our daily STRATEGY PODCAST
The FOMC keep the bull market settings on maximum plus. Good for Technology not so great for Banks. The RIO results reaction - but what would brokers know about target prices if they don't know what the iron ore price is going to be. What "Smart Money" is and the advantages of managing "Small "Money".
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A dull day ahead of the CPI number at 11.30am and the FOMC tonight. China is selling off on State intervention in the private sector. Shane Oliver's vaccine numbers - quite optimistic - the economy rebounds quickly from lockdowns and we should be 80% fully vaccinated by Mid-March suggesting we can live with the virus with no need for more lockdowns. Research from Macquarie on Base Metals - every stock has an OUTPERFORM recommendation. We identify the safest stocks in the ASX 200 as well as the most risky. Interesting lists.
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The relentless bull market continues led by resources as the electric battery theme is reinforced by Tesla results comments about global supply chain shortages. Guidance ahead of the results season sees more stocks going up than down. Big week for US results. Big week for Central Bank utterings with the FOMC on Thursday morning our time. We look at a book recommendation from one of our Members and steal a few quotes on how to achieve "Superperformence" (Surely the top!)
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Another good day. The Dow Jones up over 1000 points since Monday. The S&P 500 has now doubled since the pandemic low. The market will not lie down. We note the rise in COVID cases and in COVID beneficiaries in the stock market. A BHP deal with Tesla highlights nickel and Lithium stocks, all of which are flying. We look at the heady heights the S&P 500 has hit but deliver the usual warning, wait for the end, don't predict against the trend.
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Today we look at the stock market bounce back in the face of the COVID deterioration and ask whether there are mysterious powers at work? We move on from our cautiousness but remain more cautious. Today we make a bunch of changes to the ETF portfolio. A bit of consolidation and a bit of an A$ bet. Plus some selling.
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The market has recovered from an 80 point fall to be almost flat as we speak. We've reacted (over-reacted?) to last night's volatility and have sold up a bit. We are getting progressively more cautious. The ingredients for a market top were already in place with the rise in COVID cases globally the potential catalyst for something more precipitous. The fall in bond yields globally suggests a shift from risk-on to risk-off. Will the "Peak everything" theme include the stock market? Only time will tell. Until then we're hedging our bets and selling a few things.
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Powell's comments see bond yields fall as the market gives inflation the benefit of the doubt for another month. We look at the One Stock Portfolio League table. Henry has overtaken Marcus and Felix is coming up behind. Some technical signals. Gold up. BNPL down - again.
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An OK day as the US CPI number kicks off new interest rate fears. US results are better than expected but the share prices fall. Cathie Wood says China Tech is overbought. BNPL get a double-barrelled volley from competitors. Lithium gets another upgrade from a third broker.
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Record highs in the US give us no reason not to be fully invested. We look at why the Resources sector should produce good results. What's the opposite of a Confession? We had five of them today. Bodes well for the results season. Speaking of results, the US investment banks start reporting results tonight - should be good. Chinese GDP and US CPI the main releases this week. We look at some Lithium research from Macquarie which adds our 12 Million Dollar Man's stock to their coverage with an OUTPERFORM. He's now a $16m Man.
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Record highs have us questioning how long before we have a correction. Delta variant cases on the rise but not deaths. Some stock stories. Reasons the market could correct. And an article on Investor Psychology. There are eight types of investor. Only two are successful. Let's see if you can spot yourself.
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Interest rates dropped quite sharply overnight prompting a revisit of the PEAK EVERYTHING theme today - Peak inflation fears, Peak interest rate fears, Peak stimulus, Peak Aussie Dollar, Peak GDP growth and Peak recovery momentum. We look at what that means for sectors and equities generally. We also include a scary chart and some technical sell signals in the short term.
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What to do with SYD after the bid. The oil price spike. POS comes out of a trading halt and pops and drops. Nickel stock IGO gets an upgrade from Goldman Sachs. No change to STRATEGY - still fully invested. RBA Meeting today - to taper or not? Goldman Sachs predict England will win their first soccer tournament 55 years.
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As we roll into the new financial year we look briefly back at the last financial year and then look forward guessing what the Post-It Notes should be for the financial year ahead. Little messages that could make the next 12 months so simple and profitable. We also present all your one stock portfolio picks for the next 10 years and begin the league table of one stock portfolio performance - see who is topping the table so far.
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A solid end to the financial year as the market gets touched up for the end of quarter reports. We note the market is top of the range with an RSI signal. We talk about stop losses, why Brokers can't sell, and we give you a list of reasons to sell if you're having trouble getting rid of stocks that aren't doing well.
CLICK HERE to sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter including our daily STRATEGY PODCASTThe market not really behaving but no strategy change. Still very much in uptrend. Today we publish some of your ONE STOCK PORTFOLIO picks. A lot of resources biotech and technology stocks and a lot of smaller stocks. One Member has been playing the One Stock Portfolio game for some time and has a 1300% return which is bordering on the "$12m man" article about our Member turning $157,000 into $12m (now $15.3m).
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A bit of a glum start to the week with covid outbreaks and state lockdowns pushing the market lower despite a positive Friday night on Wall Street. Travel stocks are the worst hit and the names that rallied through the lockdowns last year are receiving boost, as the trans-Tasman travel bubble is put on hold and increased border restrictions come into place right across the country. It’s a quiet week on the corporate front, as a host of REITs go “ex” and companies get their EOFY ducks in a row behind the scenes.
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Not much happening on the strategy front today so, instead we tell you the Marcus Today Team's Personal One Stock Portfolio tips and invite you to send me yours. We also look at your Post-It Notes - predictive messages you can fit on a Post-It Note that would make the next twelve months a lot more simple and profitable.
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Powell has lowered the risk overnight yet again with comments about inflation and interest rates. Our market taking a breather after the 107 point gain yesterday. The NASDAQ hits a record high. Some iron ore upgrades. Today we talk about whether bitcoin is an investment and look at the meaning of a strategic review and how it often means "Opportunity knocks".
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We are back on track this morning after the 134 point fall yesterday. Wall St's 500 point fall on Friday has been followed by a 500 point rise on Monday. It looks like that 1000 point Yo-Yo was a "Quadruple Witching" effect rather than a "Sell everything the Fed are going to taper" panic. It's been a good lesson in not over-reacting in the short term. To cut through the short term to get to the themes that matter in the long term I invite you to send me your Post-It Notes today with your investment insights for the next year. In other events we have UBS selling RIO, Morgan Stanley selling the CBA and a Bitcoin Death Cross (too late guys). Jerome Powell speaks on Wednesday night. BOJ, BoE and ECB Central Bank meetings this week.
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A nasty start to the week, with our local market playing follow the leader after Wall Street tumbled Friday on the back of hawkish Fed commentary. CBA back below $100 but technology is holding up well (despite the prospect of rising rates) and forcing the conversation on a couple of popular names. Not much on the agenda this week on the corporate or economic fronts as we close in on the end of the financial year.
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The markets have survived the FOMC's "Peak Accommodation" message for the moment, but it can take some time for these things to seep into the asset allocation meetings of the world's biggest fund managers and investment banks. Its a "Pivot Point" in policy and could end up being a pivot point for the markets but for now, we've escaped a trend ending reaction. Lets see what the next few days bring. Not much else going on. Resources down, market drifting, Philip Lowe boring us.
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Today we talk about "The Ones that Got away" - I've left about $15m on the table in the last few years, stocks I should never had sold. If only I'd done nothing, instead I fiddled, too clever by half. We also look at the next Paladin. Paladin turned $10,000 into $13,500,000 between April 2003 and April 2007. In four years. One of the stock market's biggest returns in history and one of the fastest. We also look at STRATEGY - no change today and a couple of stocks that are hitting record highs and are now well above the average broker target price.
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Today we introduce a new format - in future we are going to separate strategy and put it in a section called STRATEGY SUMMARY distinct from other content. At the moment we are at the lowest setting for MARKET RISK and are fully invested. No reason not to be.
We will also, in response to Member feedback, move these podcasts into a Members only section of the newsletter. If you are listening to these podcasts regularly I'm afraid you will have to SUBSCRIBEto access them in future. Not only is it commercial for us to do that but it is only fair on paying Members. We will effect that soon.
The market is having a good day, everything on the rise except gold and lithium. If inflation has peaked as the market seems to think (bonds yields dropping fast) then gold may have peaked as well after its inflation hedge inspired rally recently. ResMed continues to breakout after the update last week. Resources and banks lead.
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Today we introduce a new format - in future we are going to separate strategy and put it in a section called STRATEGY SUMMARY distinct from other content. At the moment we are at the lowest setting for MARKET RISK and are fully invested. No reason not to be.
We will also, in response to Member feedback, move these podcasts into a Members only section of the newsletter. If you are listening to these podcasts regularly I'm afraid you will have to SUBSCRIBE to access them in future. Not only is it commercial for us to do that but it is only fair on paying Members. We will effect that soon.
The market is having a good day, everything on the rise except gold and lithium. If inflation has peaked as the market seems to think (bonds yields dropping fast) then gold may have peaked as well after its inflation hedge inspired rally recently. ResMed continues to breakout after the update last week. Resources and banks lead.
CLICK HERE to sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter including our daily STRATEGY PODCASTA bit eventless today ahead of the CPI number in the US tonight which could (but probably won't) set the next trend for the market. FOMC Meeting next week. RMD having a good day on positive company vibes. Today we do some basic technical analysis training and highlight some of the weaknesses and strengths of technical reliance. Then we "Go down the Rabbit Hole" looking at a top 20, moving onto the holdings of one of the respected fund managers in that top 20, and then looking at the stocks they are buying and selling - ideas everywhere. You can do that all day every day.
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The market lost 50 points this morning after the Chinese CPI number. The market on tenterhooks waiting for the US CPI number on Friday morning our time - it could top or pop us. More risk than reward. We talk today about Winners and Losers and the similarities between Gambling and Investing. We have a bit of a warning about the ONE STOCK PORTFOLIO idea. Macquarie likes Lithium. They also like some mid-small gold stocks. Henry buys a stock the day before a technical buy signal today. We consider an algorithm to distill his technical genius.
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A great podcast today telling the story about the $12 million dollar man - one of our Members who turned $156,000 into $12,000,000 by focusing on the "One Stock Portfolio" method, and he isn't done yet. In the podcast today we talk about how he did it and what the method involves. We also include the regular daily wrap of anything interesting although there isn't much other than the first FDA approval for an Alzheimer's therapy since 2003 which might interest some of you.
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Marcus is back on Livewire as they pick his brain on how to analyse stocks. A check-in on the “Extraordinary Correlations” in the market and a note on correlation vs causation – safe to say there are some interesting findings. Plus, the usual look at what is in store for us this week.
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The ASX 200 notched a new all-time high this morning, briefly reaching 7203.3 before giving back all of the early gains to now be down 10 points. The market is tracking along nicely despite the soft morning, and we will be looking to put some cash to work over the coming days after organically cashing up a little over the last couple of weeks. Plus, a quick check in on BET, and a look at the fairly quiet week ahead of us. US markets closed tonight and RBA interest rate decision out tomorrow.
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Not a lot going on in the market and not much to say on the Strategy front. The Victorian outbreak taking most of the headspace as Emma and I cancel our Port Douglas holiday on Monday. To keep you amused today we have distilled a list of the stocks with the most BUY recommendations from our ALL ORDS SPREADSHEET and its an interesting list. We also list the stocks with the most SELL recommendations. There are a few other stock stories today on DMP, FPH and JHX. The US market is closed on Monday for the Memorial Day holiday suggesting that we will roll quietly into their long weekend.
CLICK HERE to sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter including our daily STRATEGY PODCASTWhen fishing it is always good to know the difference between a Carp and a Trout. Carp feed off the bottom, Trout eat fresh meat and there's the difference. Carp are ponderous and dirty, Trout are fast and fit. Today we break the top ASX stocks into Carp and Trout and in so doing explain relative charts which more easily identify the outperformers from the underperformers. In so doing we identify some consistently good long-term stocks and some consistently underperforming stocks. Stocks that some fund managers must hold and stocks that some fund managers wish they'd never heard of.
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Today we talk about the Chinese attempts to get the iron ore price lower. They succeeded last night but the resources stocks are up today and it seems that even if there has been manipulation and hoarding, they are miscalculating one essential reason for the iron ore price spike - demand. We also look at a few of last week’s sentiment indicators which are turning the corner in the last couple of days (Bitcoin, Tesla, Afterpay, Information Technology) as we talk strategy, our recent portfolio changes, some broker upgrades and a bit of stock stuff.
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A bit of a lethargic feel to the market after last week. Nothing overly concerning but it feels as though we’re running out of steam a little in the short term, and the bitcoin crash isn’t helping the risk appetite. This week we have a handful of results, including one of our MT Growth Portfolio Holdings this morning, alongside a host of AGMs and just enough action on the dividend calendar to keep the income investor interested.
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Volatility has picked up overnight (Bitcoin down 31% then up 33%) and today Technology has bounced in our market. Was that the bottom or a pick up in volatility that says "Watch out"? Hard to know. We've been watching our market sentiment indicators and they are all coming off the top, or in the case of gold, off the bottom. See the newsletter for a list of them plus charts. We have been selling Technology (selling 'exuberance') and buying Gold (buying caution) this week and today we are also taking our overweight holdings in resources down to neutral holdings (selling a bit) as the iron ore price froths over and the sector falls 5% from the top of the range. Quietly cashing up as the market looks peaky.
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Which bank is the best bank? We find out in the Strategy piece today. Its a clear win. We talk about the current sell-off - no more than a loss of momentum so far. But we've been cashing up and wondering whether to do more. The Chinese upset BHP and RIO and the rest of the resources sector. A few stocks that brokers like - one of which is an income stock. Plus a few broker opinions you might find interesting.
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Today we look at some of the sentiment indicators that should help us spot the top of the market. We also talk about ESG, BHP, iron ore and we note that we have moved a little bit "risk off" selling some technology stocks and buying gold stocks today. We also include some brokers changes on a few stocks including a record high in one of our stocks which is beginning to look a little bit "up with events".
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Tech is back in fashion (at least for a day), with the “buy the dip” mentality is outweighing the bears for the moment. An interesting sentiment survey in the MT Stock Discussion Group shows our members don't think the bottom is in just yet on one popular tech stock. Elsewhere, it's a fairly uninspiring week on the corporate calendar, MQG is the last of the banks to go ex-dividend, and our jobs number headlines the economic calendar.
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We've been doing a bit of selling at the "pointy" end of the market over the last couple of days and have moved to 10% cash. Most of the stocks we have sold have been in the technology space and need a bull market, upward momentum and a positive sentiment to underwrite their share prices. See which stocks we have sold in the newsletter today as we move to "DEFCON 4 - 10% cash and on alert for a more precipitous moment. Hopefully it won''t happen and if you look at the iron ore price over $230 and the resources stocks up again today, there's nothing much to worry a long term Australian investor. NAB and WBC ex-dividend today. Bitcoin down 25% from the recent top as Tesla turns on it on environmental grounds. A few interesting fund manager comments and stock picks in the newsletter today as well as a bit of an education about stock market education.
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The market tumbles from Monday's all-time closing high - now 2% below it. What's the opposite of lighting the blue touch paper? Tech proves a defensive sector today as traditional "value" based stocks turn turtle. For a moment. Today we talk about the Budget (quickly), the CBA update (OK not dazzling) and some astonishing theory on what BHP and the other iron ore stocks would be worth if you used spot iron ore prices in your assumptions instead of current 'conservative' assumptions most of which have been in place since the iron ore price was below $100 per ton. Now $229 per ton. BHP would be worth 225% more says Macquarie.
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After a record closing high and a 92-point rise on the ASX 200 yesterday, a sell-off today was a bit inevitable - we seem top have lost everything we gained. Volatility is often a sign of a change of trend. A little bit of exuberance is leaking out of the market this morning. The damage is happening at the pointy end again with the NASDAQ down 2.6% and in our market the tech sector is once again on the nose. APT down another 5% today. Today we talk about Iron ore, resources, the Budget, fund managers and a couple of smaller stocks.
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We have just ticked past our record closing high of 7162.5 with a 83 point rally this morning, a fresh record close in sight if we can hold on through the afternoon. Every sector is in positive territory, but it is a particularly good day to be an iron ore miner, with another 5% rise seeing the spot price blowing past the record high set the day before. Meanwhile its a big week for income hunters, with three of the "big 4" going ex, things are going from bad to worse for A2M, and the 2021-22 Federal Budget headlines the economic calendar.
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Lots going on and not much going on. Today we talk about Chicken Little articles that generate "fear for eyeballs" and should be ignored if they can't tell you when the market is going to hell. We also take you on a journey through Reuters looking for small company ideas. A bit of an eye-opener on how you can watch what fund managers are doing and tag along or at least use them to generate your (their) ideas. Otherwise plain vanilla stuff today - Tech on the nose - APT down 5% on the short selling fears which Henry explains in the newsletter today. NAB results don't impress much but OK. Macquarie results tomorrow (we are heavily overweight) and US Jobs numbers on Friday in focus. RIO "AGM this afternoon.
CLICK HERE to sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter including our daily STRATEGY PODCAST.Today we talk two sectors that should have good results in August, and we look at the RBA, the Budget and the banks with ANZ's results a bit below expectations with the stock down 2% but the dividend was better-than-expected (ex dividend on Monday). Westpac ex dividend on Thursday next week. NAB results tomorrow, Macquarie results on Friday. The rest of the banks looking pretty good this morning. Travel struggling with Flight Centre down another 3% with Webjet following. RBA meeting yesterday was positive. Housing market is going off. US Jobs numbers on Friday the main release to come this week.
CLICK HERE to sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter including our daily STRATEGY PODCASTThe bull market quietly continues. RBA Meeting today. We look at the Westpac results yesterday - a good start to the banks results season - ANZ tomorrow and NAB on Thursday. We also look at the Macquarie results on Friday. US jobs numbers the main release this week (Friday). A Macquarie conference sees something like 100 Australian companies presenting this week - many of which will release any information as an announcement - unlikely to be negative. Some positive company updates today from SUL and SEK. Not so good from FLT, NCK and DHG.
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All eyes on the bank results this week, with the sector resurrection tipped to continue after a stellar 12-month recovery. Westpackicked things off this morning, up 4% in early trade, and ANZ, NAB and Macquarie all follow this week. We also have results from REA later in the week, with all eyes on the housing market outlook, as well as an RBA policy meeting and the following statement of monetary policy, among a number of economic releases.
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The market behaving itself again, up nearly 4% for the month. FOMC meeting predictable, CPI number yesterday lower-than-expected, nothing to concern ourselves with. Today I have extended our lesson in risk and given you tables of the least risky stocks in the top 200 as well as the most risky stocks in the top 200 and the most risky stocks in the All Ordinaries index (top 500). We then look at pandemic beneficiaries. Over the last couple of weeks a number of companies at the pointy end of the pandemic have told us that the boom they experienced won't last forever and their share prices fell over. Today we look at other companies at risk and ask how many bull bars do you need, how many sofas can you sit on, and how much pizza can you eat? Actually, quite a lot says Chris and Henry.
CLICK HERE to sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter including our daily STRATEGY PODCAST.Today we look at the ETF portfolio and learn some lessons about how to invest for the long term. I also give you a quick lesson in risk, how to measure it and how to compare investments and fund managers taking risk into account. Otherwise there is plenty on the calendar but not much happening in the market. We talk about peak earnings for pandemic beneficiaries and await the FOMC, the RBA, the banks results season and the continuing US results season.
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Floppy day today but the trend is still our friend as interest rates continue to trend down and virus issues (in India) continue to be ignored. We have a look at Afterpay and highlight that there are some stocks that are driven by sentiment first and fundamentals second and this is one. We have included both the MT Growth and MT Income portfolios today. The MT Income portfolio is flying along at the moment as the banks results season comes into focus, calendar in the Strategy Section today. We look at a couple of sectors that are quietly trending up and conclude that for now we are chasing a bull market and the only way to do that is to be fully invested.
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For the second week in a row, we hit Monday morning with record highs in sight after another big Friday night on Wall St. Our chances of breaching those record highs likely ride on a big few days of US results, with 40% of the S&P 500’s market cap reporting this week. Elswehere we have bank result season inching closer and the FOMC meeting Wednesday night as the main economic event of the week.
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STRATEGY BY HENRY: Today is a reminder that markets do go down as well as up. With the Summit insight, the market has baulked at the Hilary Step. Seems CV19 has reared its head again as an issue as cases climb. Should we be alarmed, not yet but today will be interesting to see if its BTD or STR. Buy the Dip/Sell the Rally. A look at 'bubbles' in the US as Dogecoin has its own 'day'. And as the Shanghai Motor Show kicks off, the future is Electric and everything associated with it.
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We talk about the Market, Risk and Trend as part of our regular strategy discussions. For the moment the answers are "Up, Low and Friendly". Not much to report today, volumes low, case numbers rising but ignored, economic backdrop quiet, earnings results supportive - waiting for something to come an upset the apple cart but nothing obvious to do that. WE talk about "Left Field Risk". Refer a Friend, ARK ETFS and some technical buy and sell signals.
CLICKHEREto sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter including our daily STRATEGY PODCAST.Record highs are in sight for our local market this week after another night of record highs in the US on Friday. The ASX 200 is now just 99 points shy of the record close set in February 2020. Meanwhile, after a few quiet weeks we are making up for it with a corporate calendar jam-packed with production reports, AGMs and even a few results this week.
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We cover a few things today - the bull market, driven by falling interest rates and a "risk on" sentiment swing - the capital raisings that are proliferating as the Ducks Quack for more - the Z1P capital raising and a look at the research after their quarterly with some interesting conclusions about BNPL, Z1P and APT - the Macquarie results coming up on May 7th which will hopefully follow the example of Goldman Sachs' results last night - a couple of bottoming charts and some of your "Wisdom" from yesterday.
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The market is going "risk on" again as interest rates peak and even show signs of falling. The barometer of market enthusiasm - Bitcoin - hit a record high and the capital raisings and corporate deals are cranking up again. When the Ducks are Quacking...the industry will feed them. Technology and growth is coming alive as the interest fears fade and in particular the BNPL sector after Z1P's quarterly update yesterday lit the blue touch paper on a sold down sector. Its all "on" again. Expect other BNPL players to put some zip into their own stories with equally upbeat updates - the industry is a long way from maturity. Lots of other stuff in the newsletter including a story about the Messiah and an opportunity for you to press a button and pass on your stock market wisdom to other Members.
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Back from Easter in Merimbula and the bull market continues. Today we look at what we have missed with a few market observations, some stock recommendations and one small bit of tinkering in the Income portfolio. We look at the ASX 200 VIX at the lowest level since 2018 which suggests that market complacency is high - a dangerous state of affairs but there's nothing to do until things change. For now its all happy in stock market land as the recent peak in interest rates takes away last month's major worry for the moment. We wait for something else to worry about - the Chinese GDP numbers on Friday perhaps, or the US results season starting Thursday, or our bank results season starting with BOQ on Thursday, or the US CPI number tonight. Lots of events to topple us as always, but lets not fear something going wrong, lets wait for it to go wrong. Until then...relax.
A couple of tweaks to the MT Growth Portfoliothis morning, bringing our cash level down as the market continues to behave and paints a fairly bullish picture on both the technical and macro front. It's another quiet week on the corporate calendar but bank results season looms large...
CLICK HERE to sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter including our daily STRATEGY PODCASTA slight pullback today after a solid 5 days of gains and a very good week. Vaccine news has sapped some enthusiasm with CSL modestly lower, and travels stocks off around 2.5% in the morning. Volumes remain light with the banking sector giving up recent gains, CBA down around 0.5%. COL has fired the first salvo in a price war with another Down Down campaign to change the status quo. WOW off around 1.2% on the news.
In our Strategy piece today, Henry finishes off the week with a Fairy Tale (maybe from New York) on the new Pipers and the retail investor. And in Henry's Take, gold is stirring and a look at some ways to play the leveraged small cap resource space. Plus is Hamilton worth the hype.
CLICK HERE to sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter including our daily STRATEGY PODCASTAnother very solid rise for the ASX 200 breaking through the 7000 level at a 13-month high. Banks and big miners leading the charge. News overnight that the US Fed is more than happy to run the US economy hot and sees any inflation spike as temporary. the inflation target remains a sustained 2% and maximum employment.
Joe Biden is framing his infrastructure spend as investing in making America great again and tax rises will pay for that investment as it seeks to remain ahead of China economically.
In the Strategy section today, we look at the stimulus and why it remains hard to be bearish and why we believe that equity markets will continue higher with 7200 in sight for the ASX 200.
CLICK HERE to sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter including our daily STRATEGY PODCASTThe ASX 200 is up around 80 points to 6905 as we play catch up to the US markets over Easter. Quiet start to a shortened week with the RBA meeting in focus. In today's strategy, we look at the risks out there in the wilds and decide that the market is looking beyond the Dragons to the bank results and the continued stimulus from low rates and relaxed central banks. Maybe we should be watching the Canadian markets more, record highs there too so maybe there is hope for the ASX 200 as it grinds higher.
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The market is sliding nicely into Easter. A good quarter last quarter - ASX 200 up 3.09% led by Banks up 14.8% with resources flat and REITs slightly down. Oil up 22%, Gold down 10%, iron ore up 7% and most metals well up this year so far. Today we talk about Broker Research and the bias to optimism and why. We look at the top 100 stock recommendations and highlight the "Cheapest" and most "Expensive" stocks in the All Ordinaries according to brokers. Meanwhile I am away next week and leave you in the capable hands of the Marcus Today Team. You have a fabulous Easter and I'll see you on the 12th April. The first holiday in over a year.
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A solid end to the quarter with the market up 78 at midday - which makes up for the 98 point reversal yesterday. Rates keep going up, the Archegos hedge fund debacle gives us a window on how the market can go wrong in a blink without warning (although we seem to have survived), we look at the bank sector ahead of results and publish the results dates, and we look at the ALL TECH sector, how top heavy it is and how almost every broker target price in the sector is below the current share price and why - there are a few lessons from that.
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We're flopping from a good open this morning - we have a look at the Archegos hedge fund meltdown which has overtones of the GFC - we look at relative versus actual recommendations and we get some wisdom from Men in Black. We also look at some buy and sell signals. Not much else to concern us at the moment, unless hedge funds or interest rates start to concern the herd more than they do today.
A look at the US controversy over the weekend, where a “Mystery block trade frenzy” wiped $46bn from Wall Street. Locally, Brisbane has plunged back into a 3-day lockdown and we have a lot of action in the market with a few big announcements this morning. We also take a quick look at BET’s investor presentation and what we have in store for the rest of the week.
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Today we look at the Fat Pitch approach to investment - patience is a luxury that you have as an investor but not as a Baseball Batsman. The senses are tingling about a slowdown in recovery assumptions and the possible top in interest rates, and we look at the difference that a week makes when it comes to buying at the bottom of the market. The ASX 200 may be up 51.59% from the pandemic low, but if you missed that low by a week it is up half that much.
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An interesting change of themes today, the big question is whether it will last or evaporate. We have gone from the assumption of a faultless economic recovery to worrying about a new pandemic wave in the northern hemisphere. Meanwhile a string of US economic numbers undershoot. As recovery doubts creep in, interest rates peak, the Aussie dollar falls, interest rate sensitive sectors bottom, technology bottoms and the energy and travel sectors come off the top. In the Strategy piece today we talk about what you would do if the recovery stalled (some major themes change) and what we are doing about it now. Otherwise the market has survived, a quietly positive day over all with energy and travel down and technology up.
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The one year anniversary of the pandemic low in the market prompts a look at 15 LESSONS FROM THE PANDEMIC which includes a look at some of the best and worst performers in the last year. The message is that corrections are great but getting it right was not about numbers. Fundamentals wouldn't have helped you, you needed a degree in psychology and some of the lessons will hopefully set you up with a Diploma in Stock Market psychology at least. Otherwise another "normal" day in the markets. Long live the quiet bull market.
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A positive start to the week, but Crown Resorts are the big news this morning after receiving a takeover offer. Elsewhere we a quick look at one Fund Manager's "best stocks for an inflationary world” and our usual rundown of what's in store for us this week.
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Another routine day in the stock market - what would we have given for this level of relaxation this time last year? The FOMC is the main story and if that's the case there obviously isn't much going on. A broker reiterates its SELL recommendation on APT today with a target price of $36 when the the share price is $110. At the same time another broker puts a target price of $159 on the stock on the same day. Its all about how seriously you take the CBA entry into BNPL - UBS say it highlights the risks, Morgan Stanley says its not a threat (only offered to CBA customers). We have a look at the "Jobkeeper Cliff" and who's at risk and look at some interesting technical BUY signals, the most interesting of which are the Information Technology sector and Afterpay.
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Another Ho-Hum day in the markets as rates rise a touch, Wall St dips a bit and our market might as well not have bothered. Banks and Resources asleep while some of the defensive stocks hold their form. The slowness of the vaccine roll-out is becoming a political issue in Australia but there's no rush and the Australian economic resurrection is not relying on it. 0.6% of our population have been vaccinated against 39% in the UK and 32.9% in the US. Low infection countries are the same as up. NZ is only at 0.4% and Japan 0.2%. With not much else to go on, today's strategy section includes an article about Warren Buffett quotes and the suggestion that if you have some wisdom to impart, impart it, because regurgitating the wisdom of others does little more than confirm your lack of it.
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A quietly positive tone. Interest rates top out for a day providing a mildly positive tone to otherwise uneventful proceedings. We don't mind quietly positive days on the stock market, after the last four years it really is rather a refreshing relief to make money without stress. Today we have a look at some of the highest yielding stocks in the ASX 200, look at some travel charts and highlight some buying signals on the technical scan this morning.
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A quiet start to the week despite another rise in bond yields over the weekend. Friday night saw the S&P/ASX rebalancing announcement, with six companies set to enter the index after market close this Friday. See the full list of changes and what it means. Outside of that we have a quiet week ahead, with a few little ex-divs and a bit of central bank activity is about as interesting as it gets. More on that below.
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We are beginning to get a touch twitchy about the market but are not overly concerned. Today we talk about DEFCON levels for our daily "Cash versus Equities" debate. At the moment we are on DEFCON Zero - normal bull market conditions but this "Marked up sold down" trend in the last few days is not a healthy sign and has our "capital protection" senses tingling...a touch. We talk about two sectors having a good time at the moment - Travel and Mining Services.
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The world reverses for a day - Tech, pandemic beneficiaries and Gold up, the recovery sectors down. The excuse is a one night fall in US bond yields prompting the debate - is this a "Bottom or a Blip" in all the FOMO momentum stocks. We think its a "Blip" for now - the bigger theme is still the recovery theme and the low risk medium term play in travel, energy, resources and banks is not going to be knocked off its rails by one night of interest rate reversal. Having said that we have added to our APT holding on weakness and when you look through all the pandemic beneficiary charts in the STRATEGY piece today you too might fund some technical temptation. Philip Lowe spoke this morning. Standard stuff. The OECD upped GDP growth forecasts overnight - the trend of GDP upgrades continues.
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A Tale of Two Cities again as the Dow Jones hits a record high and the NASDAQ drops. Same effect here, tech stocks falling and traditional cyclical recovery stocks that don't mind higher interest rates and inflation (banks and resources) rise. the $1.9trillion stimulus bill going through this week puts the emphasis on economic recovery and value rather than momentum and FOMO. Today I address the short term bubble some people have had the luck to participate it over the last few months and warn them, as the last two weeks should have taught them, that it is not normal for everyone to love the stock market and ask them to decide if they are going to be investors for the future, or whether they should consider themselves lucky participants in a booming moment and cut and run.
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Not much going on today other than BHP and RIO, CSL and WOW, going ex-dividend and shareholders switching into NAB, ANZ and WBC for the dividends coming up in April/May. Ex-dividend stocks going down, banks going up - notably the CBA, which is already ex-dividend is not part of the party. Meanwhile bond yields have started trending up again taking the shine off the NASDAQ (down 2.7% against the Dow Jones down 0.4%) and technology stocks compared to the rest of the market. Today we look at the rebalancing trade and explain how the S&P/ASX Equity Indices Committee manages the ASX 200 and other indices with a rebalancing announcement due on March 12th. It tends to put a wave under a stock for a week or three whilst the stocks that drop out of the indices cop the wash.
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A standard day in the market - nothing to disturb the cash versus equities equation. We have started a holding in APT after its 28% fall over the capital raising and on the interest rate fears. If it behaves we'll add to it. BHP and RIO go ex-dividend tomorrow. Strong day for resources and gold. FMG a star stock today. The RBA didn't say much yesterday - didn't bother pouring cold water on the interest rate fears, which is as good a way of saying "Don't worry" anyway. Today we look at the "Signs" at the top of a market and reminisce over the GFC with some anecdotes that in hindsight made it pretty clear that the top was "In".
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Today we look at Bubbles - there are signs we are "bubbling" - we look at Tulipomania in 1623 and apply the lessons from 400 years ago to see if there is anything to worry about today. Another good day as the 10 year yield peaks and the fears subside. The speculative end of the market from Gamestop to Bitcoin pop up and the game of pass the hot potatoes continues. Jerome Powell's calming words of last week are likely to be repeated today by the RBA who are expected to increase their bond buying program. BHP and RIO holding up well ahead of going ex some big dividends on Thursday. Busy week with a 4th Q GDP number, Trade figures, Current Account numbers and Retail Sales with the main numbers being the US Jobs numbers on Friday.
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A much quieter week ahead, with results season now done and dusted. The focus this week will likely remain on the fear of inflation and interest rate rises after dominating the market action last week. The big question we are discussing on the desk is whether this is a tradeable pullback or the start of something bigger. At the moment it seems like it will likely be the former. Meanwhile, there are plenty of big names "going ex" this week, making it a busy time for the income investor. Plus, the housing market is running hot again, with property values rising at their fastest pace in almost 17 years through February.
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Powell pours cold water on the interest rate fears and the Dow Jones hits a record high allowing us to reverse yesterday's fall. A good day for banks and resources, travel and energy. Some good results for us today (RHC, FLT, QAN), a profit warning for A2M (thank goodness we sold it) and a capital raising for APT. The Reddit short squeeze is back on as Gamestop jumps 104%. Today we have a look at Investment Philosophy and provide you with a few of our investment beliefs and ask you whether you shouldn't ask yourself the same questions - "What do I believe" and "How do I invest".
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Peak or Pause - We talk today about whether this interest rate scare is going to peak or pause the bull market. We also talk about how to work the dividend season for income and highlight a few stocks coming up to their dividends and explain why we are selling REITs and topping up on FMG, BHP and RIO. We also talk about some rules for income investing. Otherwise the results season is running into the buffers. APT and Z1P tomorrow. WOW up a bit on their results today.
Today we discuss "The Big Issue" that could bring the market down, the only problem being "When". The Doomsayers are out in force but unless they can tell us that they are of little use to us. We also talk about what its like to be an analyst at a big broker during the results season and introduce you to a new member of the Marcus Today Team.
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The market is flat this morning but there is plenty happening under the surface as results keep rolling in. A couple of reports from some of our holdings out this morning – all going okay in early trade - but it is another huge week of results ahead of us. A couple of the BNPL heavyweights headline the list, with a host of popular tech, travel, energy and healthcare names also reporting.
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Swamped with results but surviving the risk at the moment. Most of our stocks behaving themselves. Some good results today and a look at some of the research post yesterday's results. We also highlight a few interesting stocks and themes within the deluge of information being dumped at the moment. Not many results tomorrow and one more big week to go before we return to normal.
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Busy day for results - WBC up 5% on theirs. Seems to be some switching out of CBA into the other banks after it went ex-dividend yesterday. RIO results after hours this afternoon. Some pandemic beneficiaries falling on results - NWL, BAP, SUL, CAR -) and some pandemic victims rising - WEB and CTD up today - end of Victorian lock down helps. Its all about ETFs today as it turns out the MT ETF portfolio, without any hassle, is outperforming the Growth and Income portfolios effortlessly. A good reason to get that ETF SMA going as soon as possible. We look at the ETF benefits today.
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We are chasing the results around this week and today - Good ones from BHP and OK ones from NAB. Some of the pandemic beneficiaries getting a bashing on results (ADH, RBL, DHG, ARB). Better to travel than arrive it seems. CBA ex-dividend today. Some bears on iron ore. Sweating on some of the travel stocks announcing results tomorrow (WEB, CTD). Today we look at "WAVES OF CHANGE" - how to catch them in the stock market and why we bought Z1P's wave which has seen the stock double in 3 months - Science or Luck?
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The focus is well and truly on results this week with a host of big names set to report and the dividends rolling in behind them. This morning we have had a few interesting results reactions. Seems the positive mood is making it a pretty good time to report for pandemic victims and beneficiaries alike.
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Some predictably dull bank research following the CBA results yesterday. Looks like the sector may have done its dash for the moment. A few more results out today, with disappearing dividends the theme of the day for some perpetual poor performers. The iron ore price keeps pushing higher. Today we have a piece on “Great Correlations” – explaining why there is little point analysing the company fundamentals or analyst target prices on resources stocks because they quite simply move when the underlying commodity prices move. Makes for a fabulous trading sector. The charts need to be seen to be believed.
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The much anticipated CBA results were out this morning - we have described them as "OK not dazzling" and the rather negative tone of the research pre-results is unlikely to change much tomorrow by the looks of it. The dividend payout a bit conservative going ex dividend on March 4. Most of the overnight themes were quite positive we have a look at those. We have made some changes to the Growth and Income portfolios and chase our tails trying to keep up with the results and results reactions.
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It’s a bull market. All the US markets on record highs, longest streak of gains since August, stimulus coming (details tonight), a good US results season, three vaccines to be approved in the next few weeks, vaccinations accelerating, gold up, oil up, iron ore up. As they say in Top Gun “It doesn’t get to look any better than this”. We look today at the CBA results and publish the MARCUS TODAY STOCK MARKET DICTIONARY.
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Quiet sort of day - taking a pause from the 3.6% gain in the last three days on the ASX 200. A few stock observations today and a look at the plain vanilla themes running through the market. With not much going on today I have answered an email about trading courses and tell you "The Truth about Stock Market Education". It was also inspired by my failed attempts to cancel a subscription to some stock market software. Enjoy.
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The bull market continues - up 100 points on the ASX 200 yesterday and another 50 today. There's a bit of a dip in the iron ore price holding back the major resources but otherwise the Australian results season has started well with AMC up 6% on results today and in the US Alphabet is up 6% on results and Amazon 1%. We have been worrying about results from the recovery stocks we hold after the WOR downgrade this week but are going to leave it with the market running like this. We'll take what comes in the recovery stocks. Maybe the market will see through to the other side which is where our focus is. The Short Squeeze is unwinding. The RBA have our backs. Its a good day for Marcus today Members and their portfolios.
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A good day in the market today with pandemic-beneficiaries including online retail, motor stocks, BNPL and technology stocks making up for lost time after the wobble last week. We worry about the results season today and wonder if we are taking too much risk holding the recovery stocks, AKA "the pandemic victims" ahead of results which could be reporting on the worst six months in years. We also talk about the short squeeze fiasco which has spread into silver with #silversqueeze trending on Twitter. Whilst we rubbish them, some of those little traders in the US are now sitting on millions. They always raise up the winners to get you into the casino. No mention of the losers. Not much on the technical front to go on today. The quiet bull market continues for now.
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A sea of red to start the new month after a 2% fall in Wall St on Friday night. Company results once again overshadowed by the “Reddit short-squeeze” and a bit of volatility induced profit-taking. A look at a peculiar development of the short-squeeze saga, with Robinhood moving from hero to villain in the eyes of the punters. Plus, our usual rundown of what the week ahead has in store for us, with the nerves rising just a little as our local reporting season approaches.
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An interesting day today discussing the 2.6% fall in the S&P 500. Is it the start of a correction, is there something fundamentally wrong? We discuss that today along with the Short Squeeze in the US, the FOMC and what to do if there is a correction. We also have a bit of stock stuff, a sector to sell, a sector to buy and the stocks that will be targeted if the same thing happens to our most shorted stocks as well. Plus the usual Technical Observations. Enjoy!
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Have the resources topped out today? Why Nick Scali is still cheap despite a record share price. GameStop "wont stop" and what that tells you about the oldest game in the stock market called "Buy something and tell everyone else to buy it". Housing sector looks to be doing OK after an RWC earnings update. Results season in full flight in the US and the results season is about to start in Australia and the game of "Blow up or Go up" begins. FOMC tonight.
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A relatively quiet four-day week expected, with the market shut tomorrow for Australia Day. Locally we have a few mining production reports and a couple of interesting results due, but the market focus will be on the US results season where a number of the worlds biggest companies are set to report. Meanwhile, new case numbers are peaking globally as the vaccine roll-out brings a bit of optimism, and the Pfizer BioNTech vaccine has been formally approved by the TGA for use in Australia.
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Plenty of sectors running hot at the moment as the momentum stays in the market. Today we have a look at all of the sectors as usual, while also taking a deeper look at some of the more interesting stocks held within and identifying a few interesting opportunities.
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More positives than negatives this morning - we list them both in the strategy podcast today. We have made a few changes to our Growth Portfolio today, running the cash down to 5% from 16%, we have been underperforming a rising market thanks to cashing up a bit in December, that's enough of that. All the changes highlighted in the strategy section today. A few other stock stories today, good numbers from Z1P, APT still rising, TCL bottoming, Gold stocks bottoming, a few buy and sell signals and a couple of Directors buying a couple of stocks.
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First day back in the office this year. Good to be back with the Team. Everything seemingly very normal. The cyclists on Beach Road have blossomed in COVID it seems, less commuters, less cars, an altogether more pleasant world. We are seeing a potential new office in Bayside Melbourne today, we will have COVID to thank for that as well.
Another good day on the market - the quiet bull market continues - up another 40 points on top of yesterday's 80 points. Resources the subject of interest today, see the Strategy piece for an interesting comment from Macquarie that their BHP forecast would be 125% higher if they used spot prices for 2023. Its a repeat of the resources boom of 2005. We're also hoping against hope that the Healthcare sector bottoms one day soon, we need the A$ to peak - some signs it might happen.
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A solid day with few major drivers with the US closed overnight. Today we look at the likely winners and losers in next month's results season and notice a broker or two trying to get the jump on guessing which stocks are going to dazzle and which will frazzle. BIN bid for which is good for us. RIO production numbers didn't excite, BHP's tomorrow. JBH H1 update yesterday leaves brokers saying the price is up with events. A few Technical Observations today, one interesting one - COH.
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Earnings season approaches and the Aussie dollar is up 12% since June, which could mean trouble for some of our big names that earn their dollars elsewhere. Today we identify some of the potential winners and losers. Meanwhile, it is a busy week ahead despite US markets staying closed tonight for Martin Luther King Jr day. US results season is heating up with some big names reporting and there are a number of Central Bank meetings around the globe. Plus, Wednesday sees the inauguration of Joe Biden as President. On top of that, locally a few economic drops as well as quarterly updates from the big miners and a few of the oilers.
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Welcome to a fresh format for weekly sector charts. This year you will be able to view our normal sector charts article on the Marcus Today website on a Friday or watch the video with Ben speaking to the charts in question. As a podcast listener please be aware you are only getting half the experience, and you can find the video with all the charts included in today's newsletter on the Marcus Today website. If you aren’t already a subscriber you can of course get a free trial on our website to check it out by clicking on the above link.
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A few things moving today including APT up 8% on the back of a Morgan Stanley target price upgrade and the Affirm (BNPL company) IPO in the US (up 98% on day one). Banks also on the rise on broker research suggesting a return to 70% payout ratios and PME up on a contract win (and Chris has done a new STOCK WATCH video about it today in the TRADING IDEAS section). Meanwhile today's podcast provides a bit of education about the limits of fundamental analysis. You can't identify stocks like APT when they don't have any earnings, but there is money to be made. You just have to ignore the Buffettesque approach to stock analysis sometimes, it blinds you to concept stocks and relies on what is "known", when share prices move on what is "unknown". Essential training for Marcus Today Members.
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We are into the Confession Season and it cuts both ways - PMV up 13% today as they tell us to expect great results in February (earnings up 75-85%). All retailers flying today in anticipation of similarly good results this time around. Pandemic beneficiaries (online anything, retail, motor stocks) are going to be reporting on their best six months in history just as the pandemic victims (tourism, travel leisure, gambling, REITs, energy) report on their worst six months in history. Iron rote results should also be stellar. Cur regular results article "Blow up or go up". A few stock comments today. Some Technical observations, and some reasons to be fully invested this week.
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Good Morning everybody and Welcome to 2021. Today we look at what we missed, what themes are currently driving the market and what themes we can expect for 2021. The summary includes - Expecting a bull market to continue until it doesn't, sticking with resources until the iron ore price tops out, looking to get back into the energy sector which still has a long way to recover, looking to buy back into travel and tourism and other recovery sectors assuming an efficient vaccine roll out, holding banks for income, looking to buy healthcare if the A$ tops out, looking to buy gold if the market goes to hell in a basket and stock picking technology which is topping out at the moment and still in La La Land when it comes to valuation. AS usual, plenty of positives and negatives, for now the positives have it.
A very quiet week on the corporate calendar, with plenty of executives still away working on their tan. Brisbane is out of lockdown tomorrow but chaos reigns supreme in the US as Biden encourages the market with a plan for "trillions" more in support. The economic front starts to get busy this week with plenty of drops globally. Plus, our technical observations are back with a few interesting stocks showing RSI buy signals.
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Lockdowns are back on the agenda as the Sydney outbreak rises to 83, restrictions return and the other states put NSW in exile. Elsewhere, after almost nine months of stimulus negotiations, the Republicans and Democrats have finally agreed on another relief package. Despite the headlines it does look like we have a pretty quiet week ahead, with just three full sessions before we hit the Christmas holiday period. Plus, don't forget to register for our biggest webinar yet, with Marcus putting the finishing touches on 2020 and getting you ready for a big year ahead on Wednesday.
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We seem to be rolling quietly into the Christmas Buffers in a quiet bull market. Lets hope it remains this way for the holiday and for next year as well. A quiet bull market will suit us all nicely after an anxious year this year. Not too much to tell you about today - you can read about a few buy and sell signals and for your reading pleasure have included one of my favourite quotes and an article about what could possibly be more important than money.
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A good lead from Wall St and the recovery is back on. Travel flying, banks strong and vaccine roll-out going smoothly. Even hints of a stimulus bill...about time. 2021 is shaping up to be a year of recovery absent the political volatility and unpredictability. Today we look at whether BHP, RIO and FMG are expensive and debate whether to respond to recent short term sell signals. We have the usual technical observations. ANZ paid its dividend today to coincide with its AGM which suggested they haven't lost a dollar in defaults because of COVID and have therefore over-provided which may mean share buybacks from all the banks next year. Westpac pays its dividend on Friday. NAB AGM on Friday.
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Thank you very much to everyone that sponsored my Team for "The Longest Day" playing 72 holes of gold in a day yesterday for the Cancer Council and awareness of skin cancer. Much appreciated. We tee'd off at 6:18am and left the last green at 7:40pm. Marathon stuff. Sore this morning! Today in the strategy piece we talk about "Peak Optimism" and the market running out of steam. We also talk about the Bank sector and whilst the themes are good, they are now, according to the brokers, looking overvalued after a fabulous run this month.
A quiet Monday morning as was expected, with vaccine updates still holding the headlines. A bit of a focus on central banks this week with the FOMC, BoE, and BoJ all meeting. Outside of that things are slowing down as we approach the Christmas shutdown period. 30 RSI sell signals on the scan again today and just the one buy signal. Plus, updates on Marcus' "Longest Day" as he raises money for the Cancer Council by playing 72 holes of golf in a day.
CLICK HERE to sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter including our daily STRATEGY PODCASTToday we have a look at the best recovery play of all - a sector that is beginning to froth up as the Pfizer vaccine approval looms. UBS upgrades the banks and talks about share buybacks and a return to higher dividends. CSL abandons its vaccine candidate. We look at three resources stocks which might still offer some value. We cut one stock out of our growth portfolio after a disappointing downgrade yesterday. We suggest a few ETF candidates for the recovery and top it all with the usual technical observations.
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I am back from my "Course" and the market has behaved itself fabulously whilst I've been away. Seven days going up on the trot. Maybe I should have stayed away, down 40 points today. A smorgasbord of interesting stuff in the strategy section today. The day's positives and negatives. A couple of stocks that the brokers like that have caught my eye. An explanation of why some of the resources stocks are fabulous stocks to trade long and short term. All of our portfolios published in all their detail today including the ETF portfolio. And the usual Technical Observations see travel and banks pausing and some interesting stocks bottoming (NXT, KGN) in the short term. Enjoy.
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A cracking start to the week, with the market blowing past the 42 points that the SPI Futures were pointing to after all of the US indices printed fresh all-time highs. The miners and energy stocks have kept their momentum rolling, while a couple of tech names are up on some good press, and one of our Income Portfolio holdings has dropped a nice set of numbers. A fairly quiet week ahead as we close in on the Christmas period.
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A record high for the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ on some promising vaccine developments and the suggestion that the markets are underestimating the speed of the economic recovery. We've had a good GDP number today and predictably supportive commentary from Philip Lowe as he delivers his semi-annual testimony to Parliament. Today we talk about why the resources sector is a fabulous Australian trading sector and we look in particular at the opportunity in the energy stocks. Lots of interesting technical observations as usual.
Henry is back and I am finally taking a week off - you will find me on the course somewhere - I'll see you back here next Thursday.
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Our market recovering the 83 point end of month fall yesterday as the Dow Futures rally 300 points off their low this morning and as the end of month "window dressing" reverses. Today we look at a lot of short term sell signals after a tremendous November rally. We look also discuss our strategy for the year ahead and look at some of the stocks making the news today - TWE, WBC, DMP to name a few.
The ASX 200 is looking to close out its best month since 1988 as November comes to an end. This week we have an RBA meeting and the third-quarter GDP number which is expected to show the sharpest rise in economic activity since 1997, while AGM season is also winding down with just a handful of virtual presentations scheduled. A change to the portfolio after a bad weekend for one of our holdings. Plus, 30 RSI sell signals showing up in our "TECHNICAL OBSERVATIONS" after a red Friday.
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Bit of a ho-hum day with Wall St closed overnight and not much else going on. Today we note the profit taking in some recovery sectors yesterday after a great rally and wonder whether it is time to take some profits ourselves. We sold RMD and ASX yesterday and have done some numbers on the Travel sector and it has to be said - some stocks are anticipating a lot of recovery potential before it has happened. We have declared ourselves "biased to selling". We list a few positives and negatives and have the usual list of Technical Observations. Early lunch day.
CLICK HERE to sign up for a free trial of the Marcus Today newsletter including our daily STRATEGY PODCASTWe have sold a couple of stocks in the growth portfolio today - find out which ones in the strategy section today. There is growing doubt about how long this rally can continue, but all good for now. A few sell signals in one particular sector today and we highlight three unpopular sectors that appear to be bottoming. Thanksgiving holidays in the US suggest a quiet end to the week and it certainly looks like that today.
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The recovery rally is in full swing on the back of a series of positive headlines that we list in the strategy section today. If you want to know the stocks with the most recovery potential we have covered that today by re-publishing the tables we used in the initial bounce in March showing not only the recovery potential but the number of extra shares on issue compared to February where a company has had a share issue. We also discuss some of the best charting software and include links to articles about Member recommendations.
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The vaccine news is good, the recovery themes still dominate, the only problem is "Price". Today we list the overbought stocks (50 in the ASX 300) and answer the question "When do I sell". Long term Members will already know the answer. We also look at the concept of "Anchoring" and provide a bit of education on that soft-brained concept. We also chart a few sectors and provide the usual Technical Observations. We also highlight a recovery stock we don't hold.
We are down to just 104 active cases in Australia. Victoria has just the one active case and Victorians can now take their masks off outdoors on either side of the Vic/NSW border as Dan Andrews relaxes restrictions and the border opens up. Things aren't looking so good across the globe, but astonishingly European countries are now looking to ease restrictions leading into the Christmas period. Locally AGM season rolls on, while the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday gives the US a busy first three days of the week.
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Tom has called my hopes that the stock market becomes enjoyable again the "Quiet Bull Market Theory" - lets hope he's right and we have a decade of low stress profitability ahead (some chance!) - in the absence of any strategy setting changes today we look at two hated sectors that are bottoming and wonder whether this isn't the moment. Thanksgiving next week - the US goes quiet for a couple of weeks. Don't mind that.
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Today we talk about getting comfortable with the market after four years of constant anxiety. In two weeks the investor's world has become a much more predictable place. At this point we do not have an overvalued equity market (maybe the US has but not us), we are on a trajectory back to a pre-pandemic normality, with the adults back in charge in the US. And our baseline is an Australian equity market that is not overvalued but could, in some sectors, be offering a multi-decade buying opportunity. We talk today about some positive vibes for regulation, the economy and the banks and include all the bank sector research which is now saying they are overbought having spent the last year oversold.
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ASX 200 up 14 yesterday, up another 39 today. With the adults back in control of the White House and with vaccine optimism seeping into some of the recovery sectors I envisage a much quieter “Tweetless” life as an investor, steady, predictable, boring. Is it too much to ask for a steady if plodding bull market? The foundations are being built and there is still significant recovery potential as you’ll see in the Strategy section today.
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Moderna's vaccine news builds on Pfizer's vaccine news to create an all time high in the Dow Jones and the S&P 500. The headlines don't get much better for our portfolios - we are fully invested with the rotation continuing from momentum and growth to recovery stocks, cyclicals and value plays. The adults are back in charge of the White House and Australia is in a new trade pact with China. It looks like the foundations for a new bull market are being put in place and there is still a lot of upside to go in the right stocks, stocks that are slowly going to toddle back to their February highs. What a fabulous couple of weeks.
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We were up 79 points until the plug was kicked out of the ASX servers and the entire market was paused at 10:24 this morning. We don’t have an answer to what has gone wrong just yet, but keep an eye on our website for the latest when it comes through. A few quick updates in the STRATEGY section today after a fairly quiet weekend. Plus, AGM season rolls on this week alongside a couple of company results.
As the vaccine rally loses momentum we discuss today what the next few months could look like even if there is a vaccine. It is clearly not going to be a clean economic recovery and I anticipate a daily debate on the trajectory of the recovery as we once again hang on every economic signpost to find out if it is going to to clean, fast, slow or messy. Messy looking likely. We have assumed the best this week, but the reality is that we still need a stimulus bill, containment, and there is a risk that once revealed, some of the balance sheet damage could just freeze up the credit markets again. We also include a bit of stock commentary, the usual technical observations and a heads up to watch the stock tips coming out of the SOHN conference today.
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A bit of a pause in the recovery trade this morning as travel, banks and energy stop to think about it and technology and specialty retail regain some poise. Virus concerned creeping in in the short term - Italy hits 1m cases. Net result the market is pretty much unchanged. Today we make a change to the ETF portfolio, publish the restructured growth and income portfolios, look at a host of interesting technical observations and highlight the interesting turn and announcement from Telstra.
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We made a lot of changes to the Portfolios yesterday as we restructured for a post-pandemic world. You can see the changes in the Strategy piece today. Today we dissect the anatomy of the market rotation that is going on. Very happy to see the vaccine news continuing to drive the same themes today, it looks like yesterday's one day share price pops might just turn into persistent medium term themes as we come out of 2020 and COVID-19 and go into 2021 fully invested, with a vaccine arriving, and Trump and his unstable, unpredictable manipulation of the stock market by tweet, a distant memory. A much more stable world is ahead of us and we have positioned for it.
In today's podcast Marcus tells us what to do about this vaccine news. Which stocks to buy and which stocks to sell.
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What a week - Trump gone, the adults back in charge of the US and, as if that wasn't enough, now we (appear to) get a vaccine that solves Biden's and the World's worst worry - tackling the virus. Pandemic over? There are always finger waggers when we get good news (there may be legitimate vaccine developments/delays we are not factoring in) but there are also times in the stock market when you have to take a risk - and if this isn't it, then what is? Chickens don't make money. Good day for the Bulls and potentially, in the right cyclical and recovery stocks, today marks a multi-decade buying opportunity.
Our market is flying along this morning as it looks as though Joe Biden has won the race for President. We have a list of what to expect from the election outcome (assuming the transition to power is ultimately smooth (ish) and the Republicans hold the Senate). Meanwhile, the virus continues to spiral out of control as the global case count passes 50m, but Victoria records it's tenth straight donut day. Plus, we take our usual look at what the week ahead has in store for us.
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Waiting for Godot (the election result). Some of the Bookies have closed the books and paid out on Biden. Trump making fraudulent accusations in a press conference dented the market a touch this morning. Recovered. FAANGS now up 10.1% since last Friday. FOMC routine. Lots of stock stuff helping the Growth Portfolio today - AMC upgrade, MQG results, REA numbers, TAH bid spec. Some interesting chart signals (Travel stocks a buy). We added some Z1P to the Growth Portfolio today. Hamish Douglass says a Biden win is a nirvana for (his) stocks. The Wall St Journal says the post election momentum rally has overshot.
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Never a dull moment - find out today how the election (lack of) result plays out for the markets and which sectors are seeing the benefit or otherwise. It seems the lack of Senate control by either party is what the markets like the most, no Antitrust legislation that targets Big Tech is likely to get passed (FAANGS+ up 5.33% overnight), and no healthcare reforms, and that sector the best performer in the US overnight. Neither issue really affects us but the tech and healthcare sentiment washes over us as well. Not so good for financials. NAB results in line. Macquarie tomorrow. FOMC tomorrow. US Jobs numbers on Friday. Some good charts in Strategy today, a few buy signals. Net election result so far - no major market impact but Wall St relieved that they might spend the next four years without significant interference from the politicians...a win for investors.
A big night in the US. The markets are watching Florida, they count quickly and a Biden win there may set the scene for a Biden win overall. The market is anticipating (hoping) for a clear Senate majority and a swift and large $5 trillion stimulus bill. After the RBA meeting yesterday rates could be on hold for three years - good for estate agents. Today we look at a number of stock ideas and the travel, bank and energy sectors. We also have the usual technical observations. Interesting day ahead.
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Melbourne Cup Day (holiday in Victoria), US Election Day, RBA Meeting Day and we have the FOMC this week, US Jobs numbers, the US results season and our own bank sector results season - a busy week. Our market up over 70 today on the 84% chance of a rate cut factored into the futures market with hopes for $100bn worth of bond buying to be announced as well. We cover the WBC results, the virus and election headlines, have charts of our market and the Us market in the strategy section and an article about Bookies in the newsletter. A quiet afternoon expected. Traders will be waking up as we near the bottom of the trading range and the US election uncertainty could be replaced with a Trump free sentiment lift. A busy week.
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Market up 2 points or 0.4% early - nowhere near the 52 point rise that SPI futures were suggesting but we are really just treading water today with election week upon us and all eyes firmly on the US count that kicks off on Wednesday morning. Keeping us busy in the meantime is the Melbourne Cup Day RBA meeting tomorrow, a few bank results, and a big day of AGMs on Thursday. Plus, another 30 RSI sell signals on the market this morning, and just the one buy signal.
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The World didn't end overnight after all. Dow Futures down 200 this morning and Apple and Amazon results appear to have disappointed after hours. A Smorgasbord of items in the podcast today, from the US election in 5 days, to the RBA Meeting next week, the Afterpay research after the sales numbers this week, the Seek short selling, all the MT Portfolios including the ETF portfolio and 50 sell signals.
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Collins Class Rule anyone - Find out today what we are doing about a 3-4% falls in the US and European markets overnight. We look at why the markets are worried, whether it matters, and what you should be doing about it. We also include what we are doing in our portfolios and it might surprise you. Time to turn of the screens and come back when the market hits the bottom of the trading range at 5750 which is our "Break or Bounce" moment. Looks like you have a few weeks standing back by which time the US election will hopefully be over and we have more confidence in a coronavirus vaccine. Dow Futures up 200 at the moment. An interesting week ahead.
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Waiting for a few issues to resolve themselves - Election, Stimulus and a Vaccine. Meanwhile we're fully invested. There are always issues to resolve themselves. Hoping the election result is a positive and some vaccine news helps this week. Meanwhile we look at the banks, their dividend prospects, and thirty sell signals. The message is obvious. Traders would be selling. Investors would waiting for lower prices.
"Back in the Band" - the market has peaked at the top of the trading range and is back in its sideways trading range. Weak indicators overnight. 27 sell signals in the ASX 200. Cases soaring in the northern hemisphere (zero in Victoria again). A week of election uncertainty, US results, Australian AGMs, a CPI number and the ANZ results. We are fully invested and staying that way although it I was a trader...maybe I'd take a profit. You might notice all the Australian COVID beneficiaries coming off the top...."Peak Virus Fear" moment in Australia?
Zero new cases in Victoria puts Dan Andrews in the firing line as the Federal Health Minister urges the Premier to announce further reopening steps today. Virus cases in Europe and the US are still spiralling out of control, but US bond yields are on the rise as the Presidential election approaches. There's plenty happening on the corporate calendar this week with AGM season heating up locally and earnings season is hitting its straps in the US. Plus we have our usual Technical Observations, with a few interesting sell signals popping up this morning.
It was a big weekend for Victorians with the next stage of ‘reopening’ announced yesterday, but the heat stays on Premier Dan as a joint statement from Scott Morrison, Josh Frydenberg and Greg Hunt declares that each day of lockdown comes at a heavy cost to mental health and the expense of 1000 jobs. The week ahead is all about AGM’s, production reports and a couple of speeches from RBA members.
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Bit of a routine day today -** There is a quick strategy summary in the podcast today, reasons to be cheerful from the RBA, one quality sector that is looking like its bottom of the range and bouncing and the usual technical observations. We have a look at the Energy sector...a trade in waiting, a few hot stocks from yesterday with the research reaction, one cold stock, and we have the usual Technical observations two of which are BNPL sell signals.
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Today we publish the re-built Income Portfolio. We have effectively gone fully invested (almost) and today you can see a collection of stocks that is managed by us daily, most of which have a gross yield above 5.5% and which should provide a low volatility portfolio have beats fixed interest and provides an equity market upside option. We look today at a few research reactions to a number of stocks after recent results and AGMs and discuss Z1P - do you buy into the faith, or the fundamentals? We also include the usual Technical observations with a couple of stocks in there we will look to top up on (Pyramid in).
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Good Morning everyone - An interesting day yesterday with the Banks flying on the open and cooling by the end of the day - one broker has called the bottom of the sector - find out why in the podcast today and why its not that exciting. We have sold a stock in the GROWTH portfolio and made added two more growth stocks. We will be publishing a lot of changes to the income portfolio this afternoon or tomorrow morning - adding a list of stocks with yields over 5.5% - (takes a while). Lots of other interesting stuff in the podcast today including me "Trolling the Trolls" - I do love a good Troll to get stuck in to. Enjoy!
Our market is up 7% in seven days and at a 7 month high - highest since the March low - find out why we are rallying - all sorts of reasons today. The US rally was all FAANGs last night. We talk about the rather positive reaction to the Telstra and CBA AGMs today, the stocks exposed to the tide of money flowing from big fund managers into wealth management platforms, the drop in coal and one stock we bought recently that seems to be on the rise.
While Trump is playing down the virus over in the US, fresh restrictions are looking likely across parts of Europe as virus case numbers continue to climb. Locally the second week of AGM season sees some big names set to update the market on their trading conditions and outlook, while Q3 US earnings season kicks off this week with a 21% average fall in numbers expected across the S&P 500.
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A significant market theme is washing through the market - find out what it is and why it is significant in the Strategy section of the Marcus Today newsletter today. We also include the ETF portfolio and the Growth Portfolio in all their detail after the changes yesterday - both portfolios are now fully invested. The strategy section also includes the regular daily technical observations with charts including a number of interesting trading buy ideas.
The market is rallying as it starts to discount a 'Blue Wave' sweep of the US election. Technology, wealth management and BNPL are hot to trot once again as the market goes risk-on. We have made some changes to the portfolios today, the main driver being to make sure we are not under-invested as certainty returns. We also highlight a collection of stocks brokers think are the Budget beneficiaries and we have a long list of charts with buy signals and highlight a couple of more interesting trading ideas. Meanwhile have a listen to our On the Couch podcast released today as Henry talks to the managers of the Ellerston Capital Australian Micro Cap Fund highlighting a couple of micro-cap stock picks.
Our Summary of the Budget is a thirty second read. We look at a few individual stocks that have come out as Budget Winners. We also look at the debate over whether the RBA are going to cut rates and laugh our 1990's heads off with good reason. There is a summary of our current STRATEGY thinking and a very interesting "Election Trade" idea that could turn some stocks from their current lows into sentimental favourites once again.
A new addition to the growth portfolio and we have topped up on two stocks - all three are domestic recovery rather than growth plays. Trump out of hospital removes some of the uncertainty and pops the market back up. Not a significant market factor. The market is still "holding the line" at the bottom of the trading range but with COVID restrictions tightening in the Northern Hemisphere the market is inching along not charging up. The Budget and the RBA Meeting today hold the focus. Prepare to be stimulated.
A strong morning as optimism takes over and reverses the damage we saw on Friday afternoon after it was announced that President Trump had contracted COVID-19. The Federal Budget and the RBA dominate a big week in the economic world, while nine new cases and zero deaths in Victoria sees Melbourne on track to continue its slow reopening.
A quiet close to the week - we could all go to lunch early if there was a restaurant to go to :-(
In the absence of an uptrend our higher cash levels remain appropriate. Lots on next week. The Budget and a possible (but unlikely) RBA rate cut. Jobs numbers in the US tonight. US results season coming up. Long weekend in NSW. Today we look at four stocks in some detail. Two of the stocks are super popular with the 'risk-on' brigade, have terrible numbers but are currently showing buy signals on the charts. Another is a fantastic play on global recovery and electric vehicles but is flat on its back. The other is a domestic recovery play. We also look at Directors buying today and show the GROWTH portfolio in all its detail.
Today we talk about the "End of Quarter" fall we saw yesterday, reversing today...all a bit of a storm in a teacup. Despite that the ASX 200 chart doesn't speak "enthusiasm" for the market and being more cashed up than usual seems appropriate. We add to a holding in both the Growth and Income portfolios today, make a comment about yesterday's US Presidential (Un-Presidential) debate and look at a host of oversold stocks and mention one of them as a possible trading buy.
A rough day for the market - if the fall today is an end of Quarter thing (today's fall does seem to be a bit of an aberration) it should reverse tomorrow. A number of bullet points today - oil well down, financials dragging, only gold up. Read the STRATEGY section today for some important education about the ETF market - the message is that you don't get something for nothing but many ETFs promise that in their marketing. We also look at some technical buy signals and ask...are they buy signals, or trading buy signals?
Lots of interesting stuff in the STRATEGY piece today - I suggest you listen to the strategy podcast with the Marcus Today Strategy section in front of you. It'll make a lot more sense. Today we have made some changes to the MT Growth and MT Income portfolios and I include a number of other stock ideas and observations today that should interest. We also talk about Superhero, Ginsburg, Comey and the Authorised Officers that might just turn up on a Melbourne doorstep to detain you. Enjoy!
A quiet morning in the market as Victorian's begin the long road out of lockdowns. Strength in tech and travel stocks but weakness in the banks as we wait to see if Friday's move was a one-day re-rate or enough to bottom the beaten-down sector. A few little bits and pieces on the calendar this week as we come to the end of the September quarter.
Does the stock market ever make you look stupid? Well we are in good company then. Find out what made us look stupid today. We run through our major strategy talking points points from this morning's meeting. We consider banning writing about the US election. We publish both main portfolios and we give you a lesson in the difference between Daily and Weekly charts and tell you the truth about Golden Crosses and Death Crosses. And we have our usual dose of Technical Observations. Look out for Henry on Ask an Analyst at 5pm in the Marcus Today Stock Discussion Group.
It was all about Bill yesterday - the Westpac economist that popped the Bond market at a most inconvenient moment taking the equity market with it. We talk STRATEGY today, why we're cashed up, happy to be, and a few stocks we're looking at at the moment. We also have the usual string of technical observations although a lot of the buy signals may just disappear today.
A good day in the market today - we identify an interesting list of stocks that performed well in a falling market yesterday - a defensive list for the next time the market falls over. We made a lot of decisions yesterday in the wake of the "Winter Wave" revelations in Europe - the outlook for global economic growth is deteriorating without a vaccine - the announced UK measures are laughable - and today we publish the slimmed down MT Growth and MT Income portfolios with the notable absence of one particular sector (Hooray!). We also look today at the ETF portfolio and educate you about a particular ETF suggested by one of our Members. We also have the usual Technical Observations with two sectors notably throwing off buy signals after recent corrections.
We are making some significant portfolio changes today - large falls in European markets on the back of a significant second wave has dented global economic recovery hopes and we have reacted. Volatility has picked up, and the markets are in downtrend. We have cleaned out and cleaned up our portfolios and raised cash for another day. You can see the changes we have made in the Strategy section of Marcus Today today. On top of that we note some interesting Director Buying and make our usual "Technical Observations" with a couple of interesting technology stocks now oversold and turning.
A bit of a busy morning to kill any notion that we were going to have a dull week due to a lack of major corporate or economic events. Some optimism creeping in as Australia gets an economic outlook upgrade and Victoria reports its lowest new case numbers in three months. A quiet week ahead on the corporate calendar with a couple of late reporters about as interesting as it gets, leaving the focus squarely on the market itself as it threatens to run out of steam
We publish the Growth Portfolio today and outline our current Strategy. We show you some charts that say sell and buy on the same stock at the same time and tell you why and what to do about it. We also give you an insight into how we scan and present charts in our software. Chris did a fabulous Webinar yesterday on Technical analysis on the ASX Top 20 - the recording is in the TRADING IDEAS section today. We also highlight two fabulous Docu-films on Australian sport to watch this weekend if you haven't already seen them.
Do you sell FMG on the back of a 3% fall in the iron ore price - have a look at the STOCK BOX in the strategy piece today. The Technology herd is selling off again - today we talk about the importance of sentiment over fundamentals. Some Members make some great suggestions for the ETF portfolio which saw a lot of changes yesterday. We talk FOMC, the oil price, the OECD, the Jobs data and have the usual Technical observations with charts.
Lots of stuff in the podcast today - a smorgasbord of commentary including an education in broker forecasts as well as the now usual Technical observations. See the broker research on coal stocks which are bottoming and on Macquarie which downgraded earnings forecasts this week and Telstra which is back to being an income stock it has fallen that far. We have also made some significant changes to the ETF Portfolio - Seven new holdings. Go the to strategy section for that.
Marcus had his hair cut yesterday - his daughter used to work in the Poodle Parlour and does the family Cavoodle - you can see the result in the ABC video on the website this morning. Lots of interesting stuff to cover today from dentists trading Tesla options, to Afterpay, to Boeing, to the Macquarie top ten tips for a recovery, Baillieus top ten small caps, two new stocks in the Marcus Today Growth Portfolio, some interesting Director buying and selling, the research on Macquarie after the profit warning and some interesting technical observations.
With results season done and dusted and most of the main ex-dividend dates behind us, we have a couple of weeks to catch our breath before AGM season hits its straps. Plenty on the economic calendar but the focus this week remains on deciphering whether the unfolding rotation away from the tech sector is a significant market pivot point or simply a speed bump that could provide a buying opportunity. Plus a look at the MQG downgrade this morning.
A lot of thoughts going through our heads about the Portfolios - is this a cash up moment or an opportunity, should we sell two top performers coming off the top, what could turn the market next week? We also publish the ETF spreadsheet and prepare for some changes to the ETF portfolio. There are some interesting Director purchases in the Strategy piece today and two technical observations in two stocks that seem to be topping out after a bounce.
Is that the end of the correction - we discuss today's bounce and decide whether we can confidently buy back in. We also look at the market PE for the S&P 500, the NASDAQ and the All Ordinaries and ask "Is the market cheap?". There are a host of sell signals in the technical observations section today including a number of COVID beneficiaries now coming of the top.
Is this a cash up moment? Is this a major market pivot point? We answer those questions today in the Strategy section. We also look at whether we should set up an ETF SMA (Separately Managed Account) and question whether it will be possible to get the liquidity we'll need to make major market calls. Finally we defy logic and note a number of large ASX stocks showing buy signals whilst the market falls over.
The "Nasdaq Whale" has potentially created the US technology bubble - I look at what it means for technology stocks in Australia and the rest of the market. One broker says the world's three biggest economies will be back to normal by year end. Another broker lists their recovery stocks. We have a host of Technical observations including a couple of our biggest and safest stocks that are now no longer seen as 'sexy'....(they never were).
Ben takes a look at the week ahead as the market shows some fight this morning. Things are quietening down a little with results season now behind us and US markets closed tonight in observance of the Labor Day holiday. There are still plenty of companies going ex-dividend and a few economic drops but the main focus this week is figuring out what exactly to make of the technology sell-off.
We have launched the MARCUS TODAY ETF PORTFOLIO which is a tool to effect our ambition to deliver "Step Performance" to those who want a low cost, low risk, low volatility, low vigilance, low admin, long-term compounding investment in the average return. Then if we can “Add Brains” by timing the market, as we have been over the last couple of years, we hope to significantly improve upon the average accumulation index return by missing the worst bits of the market whilst being invested in the best bits. Using the timing we have effected in our SMAs ($83m of real money), the portfolio would be up 57.38% since inception on 31/10/2018. By comparison the ASX 300 Accumulation is up 12.66% and the ASX 200 up 5.30%. The portfolio return since inception is a whopping 27.89% per annum compared to the ASX 300 Accumulation index up 6.68% pa and the ASX 200 up 2.8% pa. Follow the portfolio in the Marcus Today newsletter.
Lots of questions answered this morning - After a 5.9% fall in the FANGS+6 stocks overnight should we sell the market. A lot of emails asking whether this is another moment for us to cash out. We answer that in the STRATEGY section today. Also in the podcast today we introduce the MARCUS TODAY ETF PORTFOLIO starting with one investment in one ASX matching ETF. We show you how "Step Performance" worked over the last couple of years. Any 20-35 year old seeing this theory at work will be blown away at the simplicity and benefits of this long term, low cost, low volatility, low admin, low vigilance approach if you add "Brains" and that's what we will endeavour to do for you.
A recovery stock that is worth topping up on. A big stock that is turning on the charts and the brokers like. Should you buy AMP for the 6% special dividend plus franking? The ETF Portfolio - its coming tomorrow.
More on ETFs today including two educational podcasts and the ETF spreadsheet repeated. download that. Also an ETF recommendation from a Member. \No changes today. Our market down 107 points yesterday (1.8%) and closing below 6000 again. Compared to the US it looked like a bit of an aberration and in trying to explain it one broker says it was end of month re-balancing. Certainly seems to be the case this morning with the market up 99 on the open. We have escaped a precipitous moment. Lots in the podcast today. We had a GDP number putting us into recession for the first in 29 years. No-one seems to mind. BNPL the story of the day yesterday and selling off again today - we talk about a "Subiaco Moment". We finish with some technical observations. Bottom fishing anyone?
A shabby day today that has not been reciprocated in the US market - maybe it'll blow over. US Futures are up. RBA today. BNPL takes a bloody nose as with one sweep of computer code PayPal adds "Pay in Four" to PayPal usage in the US. We talk about "Beneficiaries and Victims" and switching from one to the other at the right time (have we gone too early?). A few technical sell signals today - a lot of sell signals in fact - I have only posted JBH and NCK making the same point - its that as good as it gets for COVID beneficiaries. We have taken our FMG and RIO holdings down a bit today. BHP goes ex-dividend on Thursday we'll do the same thing after Thursday with them. We start our ETF education today with the Marcus today ETF SPREADSHEET - and a look at the main ETFs used in Australia, Enjoy!
Ben takes a look at the week ahead as a trickle of results today all but wraps up results season and gives us all a chance to catch our breath. Focus now turns to ex-dividend dates for income investors and a few notable economic drops.
Its been all about Powell overnight and the re-setting of the Fed's monetary policy focus from containing inflation to promoting full employment. Financials popped the rest of the market (technology) dropped and we have the same in our market this morning. Not the best day overall. We talk about how to protect against a market drop. We ask whether the S&P 500 is top or bottom of the range. We have published a video on how to use the new version of the Marcus today STOCK BOX and we have a look at a few interesting technical signals.
A few additions to the MT Portfolios this morning as we continue to add holdings and exposure to the recovery theme. All eyes on Jerome Powell tonight. We talk about the Fiscal Cliff being a Fiscal Brick Wall in consumer spending. there is a Webinar recording on "Investment Mistakes" - it takes about an hour. It is full of "Rants". Wouldn't want to bore you. And we talk about the construction cycle and there are some interesting charts with technical signals in the STRATEGY section on the website today. Two more days of results and we can all go back to reading without rushing.
An interesting concept today - I have called it PetBarn - the realisation that if you want a job at PetBarn you'd better take it now because if you wait for those Jobkeeper payments to run out you are going to be looking for a job at the same time as everyone else. In the same way, today we imagine what the stock market is going to look like when all this COVID paranoia goes away. You need to imagine it now and position for it now. Not when it everyone has woken up to it. If true there are a lot of interesting opportunities in front of you right now. We also talk about the "Profoundly consequential" speech expected from Jerome Powell on Thursday night (should be good) and mention a few technical buy and sell signals which are quite interesting.
The "Reopening Trade" is the theme of the day - which is perfect for our settings. It means the cyclical stocks that will recover if the virus went away (Banks, REITs, energy, travel, tourism…) are going up this morning on rising vaccine hopes. Banks in particular. Some of them up almost 5%. Fingers crossed for the start of a more extended rally. Meanwhile we talk about the ETF portfolio - had overwhelming interest in response to the weekend suggestion do we will start the ETF educational journey. We'll set up a portfolio and track it and see if we can do better than we do picking individual stocks which involves spending endless hours a day researching, picking, monitoring and timing. Let the was begin....just as soon as the results season is over.
Over the hump but the results season roulette wheel keeps on spinning for another week. Ben O’Leary takes a quick look at what to expect from some of the upcoming results and the ex-dividend dates to be aware of.
In today's podcast we look at a template for living with "Never Ending Pandemic Concerns" which is the prediction of one strategist. If we adopt the New York mantra life may become a series of lock down stages depending on infection parameters as is happening in Victoria and Australia already and the economic damage that ensues will depend upon the settings. For instance New York will close schools again if positive COVID testing rises above 3%. We look at market risks today, the recovery in travel stocks, Unibail-Rodamco which hasn't been going too well this week and a couple of interesting stocks that are changing trend. We also talk about the portfolio including more holdings in smaller sizes as our funds under management approach $100m.
The Results Roulette wheel continues to turn. IEL up 30% on results. WEB down 10%. No change in Portfolio holdings today, feeling rather overwhelmed by the frantic nature of the results season and the need to cover a lot of ground in not enough time. Being 'frantic' is no fun but this is about as bad as it gets - this week and next week. Meanwhile I present a Smorgasbord of interesting items including a guide on how to track Director Transactions highlighting some interesting activity going on at the moment. We also show you how to track shorting and highlight the most shorted stocks in the market. We also have an article on the results next week with some stock specific comments from Ben. At the bottom of the STRATEGY piece are a couple of technical buy signals on stocks. An ugly day on the market today, top of the trading range with some of the results failing to impress.
A very busy day of results today, swamped in fact. The S&P 500 hits a new high prompting a conversation about how to spot the top of the market. A few other themes developing including discretionary retail having a boom on stimulus cheques that are going to run out. Another theme is the Chinese probe into Australian wine dumping which raises the possibility of all Australian stocks exposed to China moving to a discount rather than a premium. We add to our CSL holding this morning and add another two stocks to the growth portfolio. Lots of ideas around and I have started to put a few of them, those that don't make the portfolio, at the bottom of the strategy section. Enjoy.
Busy day as I deliver a Webinar to the ASA - they sold out (600 tickets) which makes it blindingly obvious I need to be doing this for Marcus Today Members. I will buy the software today. A copy of the presentation will be in the newsletter soon. Otherwise we hoping for a market breakout as virus news improves. BHP results a slight miss. WBC not paying a dividend taking the sector down. Wish we'd never heard of the banks sometimes - just as we give up, that's when they'll bounce. Have included an article on Orangutans today. Enjoy.
As we enter the busiest week on the results calendar Ben O'Leary has a look at how things are travelling so far and what to expect from some of the big names reporting soon.
Today we talk about Bassett hounds and Greyhounds and make it very clear what our recent strategy change has been that has prompted us to move from all-cash to 80% invested. Outlined in the strategy section today are the stocks we have bought, the themes we have bought and why we have bought them. I also highlight three sector themes that have been significant beneficiaries from the pandemic that we have not bought but should have and may still do. The lists of those interesting stocks are in the newsletter today.
A results roller-coaster today as some stocks fly and AGL and Telstra die. The Futures were up 42 and we're down 42. Banks fold as the CBA results reaction from yesterday is muted at best. A day to forget. Meanwhile we deliver the new presentation the MT portfolios in the STRATEGY section today - hopefully you'll see these as a huge leap in transparency. Meanwhile we discuss the Northern hemisphere moving on from the virus and the risk that the Southern hemisphere islands of Australia and NZ, who are trying to defend zero cases, are putting us at odds with the rest of the World. The zero cases target is noble, but is it realistic if the rest of the World won't play ball. Is it unrealistic ambition, or, if Winter arrives in the North and it all blows up again, a stroke of prudent genius. Who knows. Meanwhile the US moves its focus to the US election, bond yields continue to hint at an economic bottom, and the results season makes it clear that this is a month of heightened risk.
A lot going on in the market today. We highlight the very interesting rotation, a rotation that started three days ago with the US jobs numbers, out of the "COVID hedge" sectors (Gold and Technology) and into the cyclical recovery sectors. We could wait for confirmation of that trend but we have decided to participate before these sold down sectors get away from us. We have added banks, feeling a bit safer now the CBA results are out of the way. Financials are a recovery sector and if bond yields rise they are going to have another spike as they did in March and April. Meanwhile we have launched the "Re-aligned" Marcus Today Growth and Income Portfolios today. The STRATEGY section is now your centrepiece for our strategy, our ideas, themes and calls. All in one place, completely transparent. No more guessing what we're up to.
A very interesting couple of days in the stock market - up 105 yesterday and despite the futures falling we are up another 67 so far today. Case numbers are peaking in Australia and suddenly the stock market picks up, the 10 year bond yield picks up and the recovery sectors including banks and travel start to rally. Meanwhile the technology and gold sectors peak. If this carries on then cash is no longer king and if we break up from this sideways channel and 'recovery' rather than technology and gold becomes the theme, then its time to get more fully invested. Early days, but the signs are there.
Co-Portfolio Manager Ben O'Leary takes a look at the stocks in focus this week as results season starts to ramp up. Commonwealth Bank the headline on Wednesday where a big question mark remains over the dividend payout.
MARCUS STRATEGY - What we gain one day we lose the next. We have broken our duck and bought some stocks. It is a relief to be looking at stocks again instead of debating an "All Cash" stance. There are a few ideas in the STRATEGY piece in the newsletter again today. If you are not a Marcus Today Member you will not be hearing the details of what we are buying in the podcast I'm afraid. We retain that information for paying Members. We have taken the view that the market is going to go sideways to down but within that we need to make money and will do that by focusing on individual stocks and sector themes and going a little bit harder when we get involved than we would if we had an "All in" diversified portfolio. Whilst we do that we will retain a significant cash holding which means that things will be fairly defensive overall for the moment. Jobs numbers in the US tonight are a risk. The results season is going to make for a very interesting next three weeks. We are going to be looking to get involved after results where appropriate. Far better we buy in possession of the facts than guess what the results are going to be, This is possibly the most dangerous results season in living history.
For a number of reasons we are getting less fearful about the market and have today started to provide a few stock ideas for Members as we "get on with it" rather than sit in cash. Whilst we don't anticipate a market uptrend, and can still see some risks, we do think the world is coming to terms with a new normal that includes living with the virus. Against that backdrop the equity market is discounting a lot of the economic negatives and we can see a host of undervalued stocks, attractively priced sector themes and specific stock stories. Whilst we get going again, a note to Members - we will not be chasing bubbles and will retain significant cash holdings. We will of course keep our eye on 'the market' as well and exit again at the first sign of trouble. But as of today we are selectively putting our toe back in the water with stock specific ideas.
Today we talk about the assumption of a 'new normal' and what that means for you as an Australian investor. If a new normal develops then the precipitous risk recedes and we can relax about the market a bit but it doesn't mean getting excited. The bond market is telling a tale of a dire economic outlook and its hard against that backdrop to assume a bull market trend, especially in Australia. So today we talk about the strategies you can employ on the assumption of a market that goes nowhere or trends down. We also highlight some of the 'value' available to you in Australian stocks without having to chase the FOMO sectors like BNPL, Gold or Iron ore. And finally we address the results season and publish our Guide to Surviving the Results Season. Enjoy!
A bit of economic optimism creeping in as US and Chinese manufacturing activity is clearing picking up despite the virus spread in the US. Some signs of flattening curves in US hotspots helps. Caution to the wind in technology today and having broken down yesterday the banks have all but recovered today. It is hard to trust the market. Australia of course is taking it all very seriously and suffering because of it. It will be interesting to see what the RBA has to say about the economy after the new lock downs - they speak at 2:30pm today. A sober realism expected. The results season is going to make for an interesting three weeks. As Roger Montgomery points out this results season is going to be like no other. We talk today about why the Australian dollar matters to the equity market and do a bit of Education on international investment and the MSCI benchmarks used by international fund managers.
Co-Portfolio Manager Ben O'Leary back in the chair today. We are past the halfway mark of US results season and a record number of the companies that have reported have beat profit estimates. This despite the most recent financial period expected to be the slowest profit period since the GFC. Big tech is leading the way in the US, but what does it mean for our results season which starts to heat up next week?
Big falls on European markets overnight and was it not for Apple, Amazon and Facebook results (all up after hours on bumper results) the US market would be following the US economy rather than the few behemoth beneficiaries of the pandemic. One incredible fact, US household disposable income rose in the 2nd Q whilst GDP fell 32.9%. The power of government unemployment cheques. This is a market held up on money printing, stimulus and Big Tech, none of which translate into a bouyant Australian equity market or economy. We talk about when to sell if you hold, the dull research response to the RIO results, and the Big Tech boom which is not reflective of the physical World.
723 cases in Victoria but the market holds up. We talk about the market defying logic. the Results Rodeo which has already started. The Investment Banks in New York laughing all the way to the Bank. The Afterpay SPP closing today. The Furniture Part and our "Willing to trade stocks while otherwise cashed-up" stance. Macquarie AGM OK. US GDP tonight. RIO results reaction muted.
Some optimism in case numbers in the US and Victoria this morning but its not reflected in the stock market yet. APRA tells the banks they can pay out dividends but suggests they retain a 50% payout ratio which means they will only be paying our 55-66% of their previous dividends until APRA give them the all clear. We talk today about the Results Season and how to handle it and we look forward to finding some individual stock ideas to break up this "All cash" stance.
Our current assumption is that the market is going sideways with more risk on the downside than the upside and on that basis we prefer in general to sit in cash whilst that continues. However the “All cash” call has denied us some opportunities (gold, technology) that we could have and should in future, take advantage of so, against a backdrop of being generally cashed up, we have decided to start some limited trading of individual stocks on their own fundamental (quality) and technical merits. You can read about that in the STRATEGY piece today. We also look at the collapsing US dollar and what that means for which companies.
The market is lacking conviction. Volumes are dropping. Interest is low. There are sell signals around on a number of markets and stocks short term. We are increasingly concerned that the equity markets have limited upside without a medical solution. We are poised to catch the bottom of the market and any new uptrend. Whilst we wait we are considering the odds/merits of trading individual stocks whilst retaining an otherwise ‘almost all out’ stance. We still need to buy income stocks in our smaller income SMA but as the market trend fades we are likely to wait for results before buying rather than taking the risk over results. Victorian cases accelerating still. Talk of longer lock downs. Travel stocks taking another pummeling. Gold the sector de jour.
The market has dropped and died (low volume) today. We might not have bothered this week, closing pretty much unchanged. Lots of interesting stuff overnight, Big Tech falls over, the US-China relations take an interesting turn, the Government's sober outlook dulls V-Shaped recovery hopes, bond yields fall again, and weekly jobless numbers in the US confirm the slowing in the economic trajectory. Nothing much to laugh about. I have included an interesting article on the future of working in the CBD - Don't forget Ask an Analyst with Henry at 5pm on our Facebook site and see the WEEKLY SECTOR CHARTS section for a look at the market undercurrents this week.
Lots of interesting stuff today - apart from the STRATEGY summary we have a look at the bipolar nature of the market and the two scenarios its can't decide upon, we have a look at the Big Tech sector and why its done so well and will continue to do so. We also discuss APT being bid for, the sell signals in BHP, the canary in the mine being dead and a host of other interesting stuff.
Lots going on - yesterday saw a moment of Australian economic optimism as Philip Lowe and Josh Frydenberg both barrelled the market with optimism and stimulus. Short lived today as the Victorian cases hit 483 and it looks like we are experiencing an exponential pop in cases that could takes weeks to flatten. We are having to wear face masks at golf. I begin to empathise with that lady in Brighton! We address the technology bubble today, await APRA at midday, which might help or hurt the banks, and we discuss BHP and the flat production numbers and prediction of an iron ore price fall. I also apologise for boring you with our caution...listen to the end of the podcast to hear how we are going to change things up!
Big day for technology stocks today as the NASDAQ hits all time highs again whilst the 'old world' falls - the Dow Jones was down. Its a technology driven stock market and we ask this question today, "Does Amazon want a vaccine". And for that matter, does Facebook, does Netflix? Of course not. We've been getting it all wrong. The virus is good for the stock market. Cramer is wrong. If you want the stock market to go up, take your mask off, don't put one on. It doesn't mean the economy isn't rooted, it is, and its devastating some industries, but when it comes to the stock market there are some real beneficiaries. The problem for us is that they are almost all in the US and whilst a stock like APT is a clear winner on logic, the share prices in the sector in Australia are caught in the wake of the US, lack the profits and revenue and are more sentiment and herd enthusiasm than they are value. But it could run and run. So don't sell yet. We also look at a post pandemic world, a few charts and make a few revelations about property in Australia.
Read Henry’s Take about the See-Saw – “On one end of the seesaw are the virus and its economic impact. On the other end of the seesaw are stimulus and vaccines. They appear now to be equally poised. The market does not seem to know which way to jump.” – Technically the next market trend has yet to establish itself. The risk of a NSW lockdownand Victoria wearing masks dents Australian economic hopes. Bond markets disagree with equity markets – record low bond yields suggest a subdued economic trajectory. We prefer to ride out this moment on the shore rather than in the market – we have no risk and all the power to get involved should we wake up and make that decision. In the Strategy section today you will see some mild sell signals on APT and a list of Technology ETFs which are three months too late!
Nothing much going on this Friday - market dead in the water. RIO results and the Chinese GDP number didn't pop the resources sector after all. Still in cash in the SMA's. See the risk of the market falling higher than the risk of it rising - it goes sideways in the meantime. The message from the bond market (record low yields) says something very different to the US equity market (all time highs). Which market do you believe? House prices going down, unemployment going up...nothing to laugh at at all. Look out for Ben's WEEKLY SECTOR CHARTS section today - a look at the tides under the market surface. There's always something to buy. You might find it in there. Don't forget Ask an Analyst at 5pm with Henry. I'll be back tomorrow with MARCUS WEEKEND.
I waited for the Chinese GDP number before doing the podcast - I thought it might 'pop' the resources sector. Its a good number but the resources sector is unimpressed as is the A$. And the market is going down not up and the Dow Futures are down over 100. So it hasn't set the world alight. We talk today about vaccine 'hopes' not being enough, we need vaccine 'evidence'. The market wants to believe but methinks, it "believeth too much" perhaps. We are putting together a list of safe income stocks for our income SMA ahead of the results season, more of that over the next couple of weeks. We link as well to a couple of interesting articles, two from clever men who remain cautious and one on the beneficiaries of a p[pandemic affected world. Interesting themes.
The market having a good day on the back of vaccine hopes. Over 6000 on the ASX 200 again - lets see if that holds. Banks under a cloud as Westpac promises a market update on August 18 which sounds like it could be a profit warning about the "Continued impact of COVID-19". Resources firm again ahead of results in a few weeks, production numbers in the next week and ahead of the Chinese GDP number tomorrow. Tech stocks holding up today. Virus case news continues to accelerate badly. US-China relations are in the bin and now UK-China relations as Boris tells British telecommunications companies they have to rip all Huawei equipment out of their infrastructure by 20027 and are not allowed to buy any more equipment from them after the end of the year. Wondering if we are missing something positive in all the negatives or whether we are right and that there is a reckoning coming. Hamish Douglass agrees according to the AFR. The answer is in the science and the virus and that's less convincing "the closer you get to the scientists".
A big reversal on the US markets as California re-introduces lock downs may be the thin end of a wedge that dents the V-Shaped recovery assumption and puts some reality back into the US 'too far too fast' market rally, which has been all technology led. Interesting to see the NASDAQ lead the selling overnight and out Tech sector taking a hit today on the back of it. Was that the top? Read my AFTERPAY BUBBLE article going viral on Livewire at the weekend. No reason to be rushing any buying against this backdrop. In the STRATEGY SECTION today you can learn about Renko charts and understand the recent sell signals on the S&P 500 and the ASX 200.
Assistant Fund Manager Ben O’Leary sitting in the chair of Marcus Padley once again. Another big rise in cases and deaths heading north again in the US but the market doesn’t seem to care. A host of negative stock headlines give us a warning of things to come heading into results season, there will be plenty of landmines about but we remain on the hunt for income. Plus Marcus takes a look at “The Afterpay Bubble” on Livewire.
Lots in the Strategy Podcast today - we look at the Technology sector in a section called ITS TECHNOLOGY STUPID - of course the US market is holding up - 27% of the S&P 500 index is in five stocks all of which are well up this year despite COVID-19, are all potentially beneficiaries of lock downs and screen watching and are all on PEs that require them to make a lot more money next year and in the years after than they are making now. Our technology sector is frothing on the BNPL theme and is being traded as a bloc by the herd. Its a wonderful thing, but don't fall in love, sentiment is not your friend, the trend is your friend until it ends. Watch the trend. For now, OK. Lots of other interesting tables and charts in the Strategy section today including a summary of Ben's weekly SECTOR CHARTS, some safe sectors with results and dividends coming up and a look at the recovery sectors which are setting up for another rally at some point.
After the market fell over yesterday we have a rebound today. Hard to pick the themes at the moment, they vary day to day. A bit of fuss about Afterpay today as brokers update their target prices after the capital raising and one goes to $101. A bit of finger-wagging going on that we are in a momentum driven market and it will all end in tears. The US continues to ignore its second wave. We make a few sector comments today and look at some stocks to buy for income ahead of the August results season.
Bit of a lacklustre day. Victorian lock downs upsetting the bank sector. It slows the economic recovery and the prospect of extended mortgage holidays is not what the banks want to hear. The lock downs also kill certain sectors of the economy, increases unemployment, and risks more permanent economic damage and unemployment. Iron ore a mild bright spot today. The APT price is back on after yesterday's trading halt and holding well above the placement price. Founder selling hasn't burst the bubble. Otherwise pretty quiet. We have a look at the US results season today - it start next week. Virus news doesn't improve in the US. The travel sector looks like its got further to fall with all related industries including tourism folding up with it. The new theme is the idea that the May and June economic recovery, while V-Shaped initially, is going to flatten out because of the second wave, not just in the US, but here. No rush to buy overbought stocks. We want oversold not overbought stocks to buy. Can't see many at the moment.
The market has given away a 63 point gain this morning after a solid technology led rally on Wall St and a 5.7% jump in the Chinese market yesterday. We discuss today whether we should be buying the market and come to a few conclusions about which stocks and sectors are likely to perform if the market does continue to recover. It looks like a very different anatomy to the March rally this time, focused more on quality and safety than on the buying of oversold recovery stocks. It'll be interesting to see if this Chinese economic optimism develops. We have the results season around the corner in the US and Australia and whilst that offers all sorts of opportunity it also offers risk. We still haven't bought anything in our SMAs, but are being forced to think about it.
Ben filling the shoes of Marcus who is away this morning. Not much for our market to go on with the US closed on Friday. 39 States saw rising case numbers over the weekend but does any of it matter while the but does is really matter while the new death rate keeps dropping? Plus a few buy signals are making us consider our cash position in the SMA’s.
Wall St up but faded running into the long weekend - it hit a high of 469 last night and closed up 92 falling into the close. Its a holiday in the US tonight. Our market sliding quietly away after a good open as well. Today we talk about the launch of our new STOCK BOX, the launch of our WEEKLY SECTOR CHARTS section and in the Strategy discussion note a number of positives including a lot of short term buy signals generated over the last couple of days and the need for us to think about buying something. We haven't, but buy signals noted. Don't forget Henry on Ask an Analyst on our Facebook site live tonight and I'll see you tomorrow for our WEEKEND edition which includes Henry on the Couch talking to an ETF expert. Enjoy!
Similar sort of headlines today - We discussed what to do if the market goes nowhere - would we go "All in" again or stay out. the decision is that if we knew we would go nowhere for a year we would play selected sectors and stocks and remain with high cash levels. There is no point getting more fully invested until a convicted uptrend develops. We include today a list of positive and negatives, the market charts, an article about broker research (or is it marketing material), a comment on Central Bank policy and a look at ETFs and how they support the bigger stocks. Summary - still in cash in our funds.
Welcome to all our new subscribers and welcome to the start of the new financial year. This morning in the Strategy section we explain what the Strategy section is all about. We look at the positive and negative headlines. Look at the main sectors. Do a bit of education including a three step strategy for picking stocks and a comment about big bank economists and strategists and we include as usual, our STRATEGY SUMMARY which remains unchanged. We are still waiting for the next trend to develop. We have a strategy in our funds of trying to "Step up, Step out, Step up, Step out". We call is "Step Performance". At the moment we have stepped out and are waiting for a new step up to start before we get involved again.
Up down up down - the market is positively undecided. Volatility is still elevated, the headlines are mostly negative. Wall St's rally was based on hopes of further stimulus - Powell speaks tonight - and Trump tweeting that "Something big has happened" which the market anticipated as a vaccine breakthrough. We await Trumps" Major Statement". Meanwhile OK Chinese PMI numbers are helping today. We are still out of the market and happy to be whilst this indecision continues. We are in a sideways channel waiting for the break up or down with 'down' being the more likely at the moment. Last day of the Financial Year - our prices go up tomorrow. Existing Members are grandfathered at whatever price they pay so subscribe now before prices rise tomorrow and you end up paying more for years!
The market down over 100 first thing this morning. Volatility is elevated. The headlines are deteriorating. No reasons to step off the shore and set sail yet. Today we highlight a defensive portfolio - a list of stocks that will outperform in a falling market, although we have no interest in losing money more slowly. We also look at the ASX 200 chart and note that we would need another 150 point fall to break resistance. The S&P 500 chart shows the start a new downtrend. All this could deteriorate or recover in a blink with a vaccine or with re-lockdowns - its a bipolar market. Not safe yet. Happy to be sitting it out.
We thought as we went to be last night with the futures down a few hundred points and our market down 2.5% and closing on its lows that we could have woken up to another precipitous drop. It didn't happen. Market marked up this morning and now not a lot happening. Lots of stuff in the Strategy section today - a lesson in charts - a debate about the second wave not affecting the market and a few other topical points of interest. We also have an article in the newsletter today called THE BIG END OF TOWN about the big industry and Super funds. If you have your money in one or are thinking of giving up shares and letting them do it for you, you need to read this.
Wall St down 710 - our market opened down 109 then rallied 50 points. A one day wobble or the start of a downtrend? We'' find out in the next few days. Looking like a wobble at the moment. No sell signal on the ASX 200 (too early) but there was one of the S&P 500 overnight. See the charts in the Strategy section today. Today we taught Members about the Collins Class Rule and covered a few of the deteriorating headlines. We also re-published the stocks and sectors that sold-off in the last correction and then bounced in the recovery rally - it is a good guide to where the risk lies in the market if we do have another virus-related sell-down. Meanwhile the travel trade is over. Qantas parking A380s for three years and telling us it doesn't anticipate international activity for a year at least. Energy trade also over for now.
We made the realisation today that the "Relapse Risk" is not a significant market event that will simply 'happen' one day. The relapse is already happening - the world, the US and now Australia, is beginning to realise that there are geographically defined hotspots and it is not for Trump, Morrison or Boris to tell their State governors what to do, the virus has to be handled locally. In which case there will be no Federal decisions to upset the market, just rolling local decisions. On which basis the relapse risk is low. Which is why Morrison, Trump and Boris are now left, having played their national fiscal policy cards, encouraging state governors and premiers to re-open when they can...please. But it is not up to them. Today in the strategy piece we also have an educational piece on an interesting investment philosophy about trading BL2TR companies (read the strategy piece) and we then look at the tides beneath the sea, the sectors that are likely to struggle post virus, or thrive. And finally we ask an interesting question about "What would we do if we knew the market was going nowhere?".
A wild ride today as a headline that the trade deal is "over" turns our market around from up 55 to down 62 although the White House adviser that said it now says his comments were taken out of context and we're up 2 as I write. Whatever. Still in cash watching to see whether the storm dissipates or develops, waiting for the next trend. The case number headlines continue to deteriorate but we wonder whether case numbers actually matter any more. Maybe not. We look at a few stocks and sectors today. If the US market wasn't close to all time highs you might develop some mild optimism about the worst being behind us. It probably is in some sectors, but nothing looks compelling today. That may change, but not today, not on the trade wobble, not on case number trends, not on Trump losing traction and not on price.
The market is doing a bit better than expected this morning recovering an early fall as the Dow Futures rally off the lows. We're still cashed up in our SMAs and happy to be cashed up against the backdrop of 'Pandemic Resurgence' headlines, particularly in the US as well as Australia. We talk about watching the weather on the radar, ready to set sail rather than sitting in a boat on the stormy seas hoping the weather improves. We talk about the Trump Train losing speed, the cynicism over money printing, and the possibility that rising case numbers may not matter. We also list some of our now stock-standard investment philosophy one liners.
In the Strategy piece today we make the point that the precipitous moment we saw in the market at the end of last week appears to have passed but we're happy to be in cash waiting for the break than sitting fully investing hoping the market can extend its hair on fire recovery rally and fearful that it can't. We have all the power, no risk and we await the next trend. Today we talk about the idea that there may never be a second wave and we talk about being cute in a big uptrend. Happy to go into the weekend with no risk - our main worry is that we could be making more money. We can wear that for now.
The market down today which suits us but there are reasons to doubt our recent cash call with a buy signal on our Heikin-Ashi chart. We discuss that in the Strategy section today and decide not to do anything about it, the market is a bit of a charade at the moment trading on constant Fed support which at some point is going to wear thin...maybe. Don't fight the Fed! Otherwise there are some interesting articles in the Strategy piece today. Most of the main messages are the same. Fears of a second wave and debate over whether there will be a V, U, L or W shaped recovery (W becoming the more likely).
We spent the day yesterday in cash watching the market go up 223 points or 3.9%. It can be stressful not making any money, but its a lot more palatable when you're not losing anyone any money. We list the positives and negatives in the strategy piece today and deliver on our promise to dissect the anatomy of the recent fall and there are some very interesting observations not least of which is that there has been a significant rotation in the last week from recovery sectors to safe sectors. The other observation is that the technology sector is still outperforming. It seems to be adopting the US identity of being a safe or at least, desirable, sector in a COVID-19 world. On that front we have highlighted a good article on Livewire today about the digital growth companies benefiting from COVID-19 and we have also highlighted a few Non-Member emails and answered them today. Still in cash and, whilst we are open-minded, in the new volatility, we don't expect that to change for some time.
Not looking quite so clever today with the market up 220 points as the Dow Jones turns around a 762 point loss early on to close up 157 at one point rallying 1048 points from top to bottom. As I write the Dow Futures are up another 500. The only consolation is that we're not losing any money in cash, we're just not making it. We're still in cash, one bounce doesn't make a trend and the "top" is still in from last week but this bounce is strong. The Fed have put their finger in the dyke once again with their corporate bond buying announcement, but we'll find out tonight just how water-tight that makes things. Jerome Powell delivers the Semiannual Statement on Monetary Policy to the Senate Banking Committee at 10am US time, lets see if he is still questioning a V-Shaped recovery or not. Our relative performance is in the palm of his hands. Although our recent profits aren't. They are in the bank.
As you hopefully know we hit the sell button on Friday and cashed up in our SMAs. Henry and Chris are still holding some stocks, you can check out what they are up to in the newsletter portfolios on the website but the $60m of investor money in the SMAs is now in cash and we are "All out" once again. We had been talking about the overbought nature of the market at the beginning of last week but it took a 6.9% fall on Wall St in a day, a 7.13% fall in our market in three days and a momentary 48% spike in the VIX volatility index for us to do anything about it. We appear to be poised on the brink of a potentially precipitous moment once again, so we have stepped away. We remain open-minded about whether this is the right move, we are retaining our objectivity, will be happy to buy individual stocks that justify it and are watching to see what new themes develop, which may be very different from the recent recovery themes of energy, travel, tourism, REITs and financials. It will be a very interesting week.
We live in interesting times. Capital preservation is our priority, we are locking in gains this morning, its been a tremendous ride but the herd is beginning to sober up and we're not going to stand in its way. Corrections start fast and there are a hundred things you could throw into the mix to worry about, from 'Pandemic Resurgence' to the real one, the Fed telling us that this is not going to be a V-Shaped recovery. As one headline says - "A twenty-two trillion dollar stock rally now hinges on a rapid economic recovery". The Fed just told us it won't happen. We have proven ourselves to be "Flexible, Nimble, and Bold". As we cash up again we are going to find out whether that is going to be on our gravestone or the front cover of our IPO product disclosure statement. What we do know is that our investors and Members will be sleeping well this weekend.
The herd is passing a new message in the last couple of days, the move from recovery stocks back to safety again is underway and we are wondering whether to follow. We have taken the top off some technology stocks and gone overweight CSL but there may be more to do. We are (over) exposed to recovery sectors and it may just be time to blunt the aggression and go hide somewhere for a while. For now we're not making any big cash calls and have decided to handle it on a stock by stock basis. Our Marcus Today growth focused SMA is up 19.19% in the last year against the All Ords down 4%, we are up 36.61% since March 23, we have outperformed 26.87% since February 20 - we don't want to give it all back by taking some Buffetesque fundamental view about the long term prospects of the individual stocks we hold. We'll leave that to Ivory Tower fund managers that probably haven't even noticed the switch back to safety. So we're beginning to stir. Now in 5% cash and wouldn't be too concerned about running that up if this 'pause' develops. It'll be an interesting few days seeing if the herd turns.
The Anatomy of the market rally took on a new profile today - the safe boring stuff (Healthcare, Telecoms, Food, Staples) going up and the recovery sectors going down. Not reacting to that yet although we have gone overweight CSL just in case. Technology holding up today although a few charts rolling over the top and 25% of the ASX 200 is overbought. Dow Futures up 170 as we write, FOMC Meeting going on (unlikely to be anything but supportive) and little on the coronavirus front to concern us other than the market ignoring the rise in cases in Latin America, India and Africa. As long as the UK and US is OK the markets are OK it seems. Bottom line - Happy enough to leave most things along. See the article in the newsletter today about the 'Prevalence of Fear" among the people that don't trade.
Dow Jones up 1290 in two days - our market up 200 points at the peak today. It doesn't get to look much better than this. There are a lot of concerns about the market setting itself up for a sell-off but lets worry about that when it happens. Yes we're looking overbought in the short term but it can stay that way for long periods. So the market is "On watch" but not a sell. Today we talk about handling the risk of a correction through individual stock holdings rather than 'calling the whole market' which is perhaps a bit unrealistic and too onerous a decision to get right again and again, so we'll handle it piecemeal rather than wholesale. Hopefully by the time CNBC is reporting a sell-off we'll already be cashed out via 20 individual stock decisions rather than one big market decision.
The market is rolling into the buffers at the end of a good week ahead of the long weekend. We talk today about the growing "Disconnect" commentary - the idea that the equity markets are ignoring the economic reality. As the market rallies a lot of stocks and the market are getting 'overbought' - 50 stocks in the ASX 200 are overbought. We're not going to sell because of what might happen but we did for the first time this morning talk about the possibility that we might have to start focusing less on squeezing the last dollar out of the recovery and consider taking a few profits when overbought stocks roll over the top. Noticeably, in a piece of appropriate timing the Healthcare sector (CSL) looks like its bottoming, a good place to hide if things get more turbulent. Still fully invested. I'm sure any sell-off won't be a 'big' pivot point like the two we have seen in the last 3 months, but we are vulnerable to a small one after the rally. Always on watch for the top.
As they say in Top Gun - "Its doesn't get to look any better than this". Today I tell you a story about the Tech Boom and brag about our performance. But don't worry, I'm not stupid, I know this could all fall over in an instant and we will not be bragging about underperformance when it does. But we do need to recognise that we are having an extraordinary stock market "Moment" and I thank the Lord the Team has exploited this as an opportunity not been paralysed by it as no doubt many fund managers were. Today in the strategy piece we look at how to handle the risk of a sell-off, the sectors we're in and a couple of stocks we have added.
Everything going well for us at the moment. The market is still focused on recovery with energy, travel, resources, auto, technology and even the banks doing rather nicely. With the market ignoring the negatives (trade issues, riots, relapse risk) we find ourselves trying to get the best out of the recovery rather than sitting in dull long term stocks. That means buying stocks that have recovery potential rather than stocks that are good quality long term stocks. To ice the cake we have been looking to tweak the strategy even more acutely to recovery, which involves, if you've got them, rotating out of dull stagnant non-recovery stocks (Food, Healthcare, Telecoms, Utilities) into recovery sectors. Switching Telstra into Worley for instance (just an example). But the big picture is just what the doctor ordered. One day it will change. But not today.
The market is ignoring the Race Riots. Another good day, settled markets, the 'Travel Trade' going OK and energy the best sector in the US. All good for us. Still fully invested and on watch for developments in the negative themes - Relapse, Trade, Riots and always on watch for a change in trend. A few charts topping out (REITs, ALX, TCL, Banks) but nothing to worry us or provoke any changes yet. In a new development for Marcus today Members we have defined our own ASX, or 'Marcus Today' sectors today - redefined the All Ordinaries index into our own sectors. A model that allows us to create our own sectors that isolate relevant watchlists of stocks that respond to particular themes. Today we feature the 'Stock Market Stocks' and the 'Travel Trade' stocks. Enjoy!.
The market opened down 50 and is up 40 at midday - you can't keep a recovering market down. Positives include the iron ore price as Brazil runs into production concerns, a recovery in the Chinese economy with PMI numbers above 50 this morning, the oil price up 5% ahead of an OPEC meeting on Thursday that has been brought forward, a bounce in the banks from the lows this morning and the falls on Friday, a continuation of the 'Travel Trade' (FLT and WEB going up) and a less severe than expected US response to the Hong Kong moves by China. Rising case numbers in a number of countries and Race Riots in the US don't help but have been overwhelmed. We have updated the ALL ORDS SPREADSHEET this morning and have an interesting email from a Member in the Strategy piece which describes how to invest as a private investor. Worth the read. Sorry about the Golf analogy I made in the reply.
A floppy end to a great week. The ASX 200 is still firmly in uptrend having broken out in the last week. The bank sector tops out today after an 18% rise in four days but is still 40% off its pre-COVID-19 high and is the second worst performing sector after energy. If this V-shaped recovery optimism continues the sector will go higher having over-provided for bad debts and on the chance some of them reinstate deferred dividends. No change to the strategy settings today. Still overweight technology, resources, REITs, recovery plays (Travel). We'll see what Trump says tonight - whether he turns the market's attention from recovery to trade. He would have to go hard to do that. We go through all our Watchlist charts every day. A few stocks are topping out and others looking good. See the Strategy section.
The markets are piling it on again led by the banks. The weekly chart of the ASX 200 registered both MACD and RSI buy signals this morning. The main Strategy message today is about the banks. We are getting back to a neutral weighting in the sector in the Growth SMA as an insurance policy against underperformance rather than in our excitement over banks. This is not the tech sector, it is a low growth large sector seeing a sentiment recovery. Read the newsletter to tell you why the sector is moving but the message is that for income focused investors it could be the end of that once in a decade opportunity to pick up big income stocks. There is just a chance they reinstate those dividends as well having over-provisioned for a economic Armageddon that may not happen. The Marcus Today growth SMA is now up 24.76% from the bottom and you can add another 2% if the market holds up today. That's also an outperformance of 23.1% since February 20. Whatever we are doing in these Strategy sections and in the podcasts, it works. Keep listening.
Banks are flying again as the Morrison speech highlights that gloomy economic forecasts, and the Jobkeeper forecast budget hole, had been based on erroneous medical advice in February predicting lockdowns to September. As we come out three months earlier than that it means the Government is better off than expected, has the ability to stimulate certain sectors more than expected and that all the economic forecasts are too gloomy. Brokers are upgrading GDP forecasts this morning. At the same time, for the banks, it looks like they too have over-provisioned for the economic damage to their customer base and have raised more capital than they need and over-provisioned for bad debts, provisions that will now flatter future results as they are added back. The two day Bank Bounce adds to the Recovery bounce elsewhere in the market, particularity in Travel and REITs. Meanwhile Technology and Healthcare are almost back to their highs. Happy Days.
The "Recovery Trade" is on. Our market up 118 yesterday with recovery sectors like Travel, Leisure, Tourism, Energy and REITs leading the way. Even banks put in a show. And it continues this morning with the US and UK markets shut but the German market up 2.9% with travel and leisure in the lead in Europe as well as they consider lifting European travel restrictions/flights by the end of June. Our market up 90 at midday ahead of what is expected to be an Economic arousal speech by Morrison at 12:30pm. Today, as an added extra, we talk about some of the lessons that we have learned running a fund over the last few years and how they have led to our outperformance in this episode. The Marcus Today SMA is as high as its ever been and is up over 3% since the COVID-19 sell-off hit whilst the market is down over 20%.
We were worrying about Hong Kong upsetting the markets this morning but it wasn't to be. We are flying along again. We have written about Hong Kong but judging from the market's reaction we needn't have bothered. Strategy remains pretty much unchanged - fully invested, biased to recovery stocks, and watching for something to go wrong but there's no sign of that yet.
There's a podcast available in which the Equity Mates interview Marcus for an hour. Worth listening to. Not much change on the strategy front this morning. Still fully invested. Still playing recovery stocks. Still playing energy stocks. Been going underweight banks to fund other recovery plays. Seems to be working, recovery stocks (like IEL, WEB, FLT, QAN, WOR, STO) seeing the most interest yesterday and today and boring quality (CSL, Banks, WOW, RMD, FPH, RHC, COL) underperforming when the market rises. Holiday in the US on Monday. We're sliding silently into the weekend.
The US market takes another solid step overnight. It seems every man and his rat has a vaccine now. Reminds me of the Lithium boom. Suddenly everyone's involved in a vaccine. Not complaining. Not sure there is much to add this morning, the market is doing exactly what we are positioned for. The light in my office has gone from Red to Green and there is a chance that today we will break up and out of the sideways trading range. There is one strategy change today. We have decided to progressively use the capital tied up in the banks to fund more geared recovery plays if the market continues to rally. They are high street banks not investment banks which is why their US counterparts (JP Morgan, Citibank, Goldman Sachs) are enjoying the bounce whilst they are out in the cold.
The Vaccine rally took a shot in the nose overnight as the Moderna data is questioned. But our market seems unphased today and we are rallying off the lows with recovery stocks still favoured. Big boring quality, healthcare and Banks lag. We summarise the strategy stance today, still fully invested, biased to recovery stocks and happy to be testing the top of the trading range rather than the bottom.
A very interesting night in the US - a rally based on hopes for a vaccine and an abrupt end to the virus. Whether it is correct or not is not the point, the more interesting thing is to dissect the stock and sector performances overnight which make it very very clear what your game plan needs to be come a recovery rally. In the newsletter today we name all the sectors and stocks that will and won't perform in a virus free rally. Whether to play the rally or not, is a choice. We are. We're fully invested, with weightings to the recovery stocks and sectors and we will adjust that position on a daily basis depending on how this develops. There are times in the stock market where you have to think less, act fast and re-assess as it develops. This might be one of those moments.
Markets behaving themselves again. Resources in the lead. With not much going on this week we have gone through all the charts on our Watchlists and made comments on most sectors on both a technical and trend basis. We have also broken up all stocks into stocks that are trending up, trending down, bottoming out and topping out. We are still in this sideways trend in Australia waiting to see which way the virus news develops as we enter the "Relapse Zone" - the period after lockdown restrictions come off, particularly in the US and UK. All good so far but it'll take a couple of weeks on the London Underground and the New York Subway before cases pick up again if they are going to.
We were getting that precipitous feeling about the markets as Wall St fell 2% on Tuesday and Wednesday and another 2% to the low last night (Dow down 458 at worst) only to find the Dow had rallied 800 points by the close. A reprieve. Markets sliding silently into the weekend. Today we talk about the risk of a relapse and how it may not be that bad. About the US markets peaking short term. About there being a bubble in some sectors not all. How not every market top is the pre-cursor to a crash. How volatility is picking up. How we hope the trade war is a small issue for the market. How we're losing patience with banks and are looking to overweight iron ore.
Two nights of the US market going down 2% is not a good sign. Getting more cautious. Still in the sideways trading range, no break down yet and no need to change strategy yet. We have sold a few stocks this week and cash is back to 10-15% but its not a strategy call it was just selling a few peaking stocks. New risks now compound the virus relapse risk. We talk about those risk in the Strategy piece today - they include the risk of a L not V shaped recovery, Powell's comments about the risk of deep economic damage without fiscal support, the risk that the US markets are back into a bubble and the risk of an emerging market crisis. Would prefer to sell than buy at the moment but not doing anything unless this two day downtrend develops.
A couple of bad days do not make a downtrend but we are slightly more alert to the risks of a relapse this morning after warnings from the US medical experts about the damage coming out of lock-downs too early could cause. The market is still in a sideways pattern despite the falls, waiting for the break one way or the other. We have a quick look at the stocks that have done well and badly over the last couple of days as a template of what would happen is the market did fall again. Boring quality outperforms and high PE sentiment driven stocks sell off as do sector specifically in the line of fire from the virus. A useful insight of what to do if things turn down. We do happen to have taken a few profits today but not on a strategy decision, on an individual stock assessment.
We assess the risk of a relapse in coronavirus cases - there is one - some country curves going up again. Boris Johnson is right, we are at a "Perilous Moment" as countries come out of lock-downs. If one of the big stock market countries relapses everything changes. We're assuming for the moment that won't happen but continue to watch the herd to see if it turns its attention to the theme. Meanwhile we look at a host of sector charts today and identify the sectors that are going to perform well and badly if the market next breaks up or down. We're still fully invested waiting for a break higher. If it the recovery theme cracks we'll obviously have to re-assess.
The market is behaving itself again this morning with recovery stocks in the lead and a solid performance from one of our big overweight positions in Macquarie. I've done a series of one line bullet points on strategy this morning and summarised the major themes from last week. For now the low looks to be in and until proven otherwise we're going to assume the market is in recovery phase. We are moving from the 'market' issue to identify more subtle sector themes and within that will be classifying stocks as likely to see V, U or L shaped recoveries to help us decide which stocks to play in the next phase of the market recovery. It is still too early to buy that predictable boring long term quality stock portfolio, there's too much recovery potential in other stocks to be had.
The market is behaving itself - before too long worying about the impact of COVID-19 is going to be so passé . We look at some of the main strategy themes this week, some stock specific bullet points and look at why we should see one of the fastest economic recoveries in Australia. We have also given you a sneak preview of some of the content in our "Telling it as it is" online Stock Market Education course that is in the pipeline. Today you can learn about ETFs. Enjoy!
This is an introduction to ETFs by Marcus Padley author of the Marcus today daily stock market newsletter. This podcast is a teaser for our online 'Telling it as it is' Stock Market Education Course which will be launched later this year. It really needs to be listened to with the spreadsheet on ETFs open in front of you. That spreadsheet is available to our Members in the newsletter today on the ETF page in the main newsletter. For Non-Members you can CLICK HERE or go to the Marcus today website (www.marcustoday.com.au) and sign up for a FREE TRIAL for 14 days and you too will find the spreadsheet available on the ETF page published in today's newsletter along with other ETF resources. If you would like us to contact you when the Marcus Today Online Education course is ready to go please email Katie at katie@marcustoday.com.au with the subject line EDUCATION COURSE and she will contact you before the launch. Meanwhile...Enjoy!
Another sideways day today - we talk about being in a trading range and breaking up or down from here. We have a couple of offerings in the newsletter today including an update of the ANATOMY OF THE FALL TABLES and an EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS SPREADSHEET which is part of our forthcoming online education course - it lists all the ETFs by asset class and has links to their websites. We highlight the risk of the US coming out of lock-downs too early. We also belittle the trade war issue and I go on a rant about someone I was on the radio with this morning.
Hearing all the right headlines today about business getting back to normal. Even the RBA is talking about a stronger economic recovery than expected. The market is looking a bit sideways this week - we're still fully invested but focussing on stock selection rather than asset allocation. Volatility is still elevated but its settling. Lets hope we build the foundations for another long bull market over the next month or two as we get back to normal.
The market is behaving itself reversing a 76 point fall yesterday to close up 74 with another 80 points put on the ASX 200 first thing this morning. In the strategy piece today we talk about APT, the Technology sector and the need to take it seriously, the energy sector, airlines and Telstra all being somewhere near the bottom and the hope that we can avoid another down-leg from here. All looking a bit sideways on the charts at the moment, waiting for the next break, a break up hopefully, but as some States and countries come out of lockdowns the risk of relapse news is high. If we can avoid that the road back to a long bull market looks achievable on some timeframe.
The market is up on the day after the 5% fall on Friday - disaster averted. In the Strategy piece today we address the need to be flexible, the lack of a technical sell signal despite Friday, the irrelevance of a trade war outbreak against the current economic backdrop and how, without the market in a bubble, there is no bubble for a trade war to burst. We also look at a few sectors and decide oil, banks and REITs are all bottoming still.
Ugly day as the market turns over - Sell in May and Go Away they say - certainly true today. Headlines about Trump imposing Tariffs on China may be the catalyst, that old chestnut. God forbid we start following Trump's Trade Tariff Tweets around on a daily basis again. Or it may be a beginning of month thing, having locked in a great May (ASX 200 up 26% in 26 days) some institutions take today as the day to take a view on the more medium term outlook and beat the rest of the pack to the selling. Or it may be a Friday thing. Everything a bit headless. Lets take it up again on Monday. See the Strategy section for our current settings, which are wrong for a market falling 3.6% in a day. Collins Class Rule? Slap in the face noted but not reacted to. Lets see if this is a blip or a top first.
There are a lot of interesting themes running through the overnight session in the US - the rotation out of safe defensive sectors like Utilities and Staples (which fell despite the US market being up 2%) and into recovery sectors (Energy, Smaller companies, Airlines and many others) is underway and we are likely to see something similar in Australia as we continue to anticipate the economic restart. There are traffic Jams in China. The Fed confirmed overnight that they will use all tools to support the markets - the "Fed Put" is in place. Wouldn't have expected anything less. Without making an asset allocation decision our interest in recovery plays has left us pretty much "All in" again. Find out some of the stocks we've bought in today's strategy piece.
Interesting rotation from Technology to Value in the US, Tech stocks selling off. Come a recovery from the virus is the most money going to be made in Netflix and Amazon, stocks that have been hitting all time highs in the midst of crisis, or in gambling, travel, tourism stocks, stocks that have been clobbered. We are pursuing the same theme, looking to play recovery sectors, buy the victims, rather than the survivors of COVID-19. Meanwhile the banks may have bottomed, the 'economic restart' theme gathers pace, the FOMC and the ECB are going to try and molly-coddle us and the US GDP number is so historic its all but irrelevant, as is the CPI number today. The biggest risk is a 'Second Wave', the markets would tank, but it seems to be low odds.
We still believe the 'Big low' is in and will be happy to get fully invested again when the moment is right, but we're not convinced that that's today. Very few charts, of markets, sectors, or stocks, are throwing off buy signals. It takes more than one good day (yesterday) to start a trend. So we remain in some cash although we have started to nibble on some recovery plays today (see the newsletter for which stocks). Boris Johnson is telling the world to go slow on the economic restart and we might just take his lead here. So no big rush to get fully invested, but ready to do so at the slightest technical excuse.
It may not be over in society but the stock market looks six months ahead. The next headlines are going to be about every economy restarting, lockdowns ending, getting back to work and before long sports, bars and restaurants getting back to business. Next you will find yourself at the airport flying to that international holiday resort for that holiday you deserve (with 23m of your closest mates) and those roving retirees are going to be rushing to book cruises at huge discounts that will not last. they say "Buy the dips". We're in the middle of one. Now all we have to do is time it. In today's strategy piece we look at timing this moment (not yet), and which stocks are the most geared to it.
We talk about an underlying resilience in the market. Maybe we really are over the worst and maybe we're being a bit too cautious. There is no technical reason to buy anything yet but maybe we're not on the brink of a new economic collapse either. We also talk about the fact that in a couple of months we are all going to be back in the office and stuffed into a crowded cinema watching Top Gun 2 and if we don't recognise that now we'll miss the lows on some of the most damaged stocks and sectors. We also talk about the risk in the Bank sector results season next week being on the upside.
The volatility is still with us - Wall St down 632 one day, up 457 the next. We talk about one day reversals - we saw one yesterday - down 121 at one point but we closed unchanged. Lets see if we hold on to this mornings gains this afternoon. We also talk about your mindset and the need for investors to get ahead of the headlines rather than react to them. The money is in guessing where the herd is going to next, not join in on the predictable low-brow reactions to events now in the past. We look at the ASX 200 chart and note the recent strong sell signal and we'll go with that for now.
40% cash looking good this morning as the market tips over again. 3% falls in the NASDAQ, Germany, Italy and France are not a good sign. Weakness in the US mainstay, the Technology sector, also a worry. We talk about the Collins Class Rule this morning (don't take it too seriously). 10% of the stocks in the All Ordinaries index have triggered RSI sell signals today (yesterday), we list them. The RBA thinks the banks can afford to pay dividends. We are still holding a neutral sector holding going into results in the next two weeks. Now watching to see if this 'minor' top turns into a major top.
The oil price fall is a red herring - otherwise with volatility on the rise again, a few stocks and markets rolling over the top and the US market back to a fantasy world PE of 21x already there is room for a reality check on this recent ultra fast rally. We have cashed up a bit more.
Still happy holding a bit more cash than we were - waiting to see if this ultra fast recovery rally comes of the top now as we quietly expect - the US market is only 15% off the top and back to the middle of the long term bull market trading range with $23 trillion of S&P 500 stocks back on 21x - not sure that's really reflecting the economic and corporate damage, but who knows with that herd.
We talk about Stock Specific risk today - we are over the "panic selling stage", through the "sanity returns rebound stage" and going into the "recovery stage" which comes before the "long term bull market stage". The game now is to hold the best stocks for the recovery and we talk about the themes that will help us identify those.
A bit of an educational piece within the strategy section today on the need to invest like Spock as well as a list of stocks we think have tired a little in this rally.
Today we comment on the APRA letter to banks suggesting they materially reduce their dividends - and then move to our strategy commentary which moves on from asset allocation to stock selection.
In this interesting time Marcus Today is providing a daily commentary on an audio file - enjoy!