The Contrarian Investor Podcast: Recent Episodes
Nathaniel E. Baker
The Contrarian Investor podcast gives voice to those who challenge a prevailing narrative in financial markets. Each episode features an interview with a hedge fund manager, investor, economist or other market participant. The goal is to educate all listeners with an interest in asset allocation and ultimately to provide actionable ideas to the institutional investor community.
Meb Faber of Cambria Investments joins the podcast to discuss the state of markets and the economy, the need to diversify internationally, and why dividends are not a good thing.
This podcast episoode was recorded Monday, June 2 and was made available to premium subscribers exclusively the following day. More membership on premium subscriptions is available here.
Content Highlights
- What are Meb Faber’s view of the economy and markets? (1:34);
- His most contrarian take: non-US stocks are a bargain. The outperformance of US equities versus international peers is due for reversal (3:37);
- International value stocks are a particularly promising area (9:56);
- Artificial intelligence (16:29);
- Background on the guest (28:18);
- Another contrarian take: dividends are overrated (33:59);
- Tariffs: no cause for concern (39:57).
More Information on the Guest * Website: MebFaber.com and CambriaInvestments.com * Twitter/X: MebFaber * Podcast: The Meb Faber Show (iTunes link) * YouTube: The Meb Faber Show
Petra Bakosova of Hull Tactical joins the podcast to discuss her views on the Federal Reserve, labor markets, the impact of tariffs, and what this all means for financial markets.
This podcast episode was recorded on May 8, 2025. An ‘actionable highlights’ reel was published that day for premium subscribers, who also received the full podcast episode the day after recording. Sign up for premium membership packages on our Substack.
Content Highlights * The Fed last week expressed concerns about risks in the labor market. There is nothing in any of the data that bears this out yet. However, there are other ways that tariffs have had an effect (3:36); * Hull Tactical has been “close to 100% invested” and views this as a good time to be active allocating risk (6:14); * Background on the guest (10:28); * Philosophy behind Hull Tactical’s investment strategy (12:45); * The danger of ‘overfitting’: Data will confess to anything if you torture it long enough. How to guard against it (16:51); * Blackjack and how it inspired the strategy (21:31).
More on the Guest * Websites: HullTactical.com, HullTacticalFunds.com; * Twitter/X: @HullTactical.
Axel Merk of Merk Investments rejoins the podcast to discuss his view that Trump’s tariffs have fundamentally unbalanced the global financial order. This has created real risks, but also opportunities…
This podcast was recorded on Wednesday, April 30 and was made available to premium subscribers the following day. More information on premium subscriptions is available here.
Content Highlights * The ‘plumbing’ of the global financial system has been upended as a result of tariffs (1:35); * China will not dump all their US Treasury holdings overnight. But tariffs will impact future flows. A fragmentation away from US dollar-denominated assets is likely (6:50); * Are tariffs inflationary or deflationary? They’re a supply shock: stagflation is the result (10:42); * If global trade is impeded and ultimately curtailed, how does this not end badly for economic growth? It will require a mental change from the existing environment. Fortunately, history has ample examples of this transition… (16:19); * Europe and China may face trouble in this new world order. So will Turkey. “There will be more tension” (24:45); * The case for gold and gold miners (32:16); * Does the US enter recession this year? Economic numbers are going to be distorted, so it may not matter. But the spike in imports heading into tariffs will almost certainly create inventory build-up… (37:18).
More on the Guest * Website: MerkInvestments.com; * Twitter/X: @AxelMerk * LinkedIn post referenced in the podcast.
AJ Giannone, the chief investment officer of Allio Capital Management, joins the podcast to discuss why high yield and private credit present compelling opportunities for retail investors — despite the apparently advanced state of the economic cycle.
This podcast was recorded on Monday, March 17, 2025 and was made available to premium subscribers the very next day. For more information on premium subscriptions, visit our Substack.
Not investment advice! Do your own research, make your own decisions.
Content Highlights + High yield debt: this does not appear to be a good time to invest in this asset class, especially through listed funds. Or is it? (1:18); + The iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) is one way convenient and low-cost way for retail investors to access this asset class (5:05); + Another iShares product, iShares BB Rated Corporate Bond ETF (HYBB) is a so-called ‘smart beta’ approach… (7:43); + The guest is not particularly concerned about a recession, or at least not the performance of high yield should one come to pass. Even then, the default rate should not increase dramatically (9:51); + Private credit is another niche corner of the credit market that has recently been open to retail investors via ETFs VPC and PCMM, among others (12:39); + Background on the guest (22:52); + Some of the macro signals he watches and what they are telling us right now (28:01); + There is still upside in European equities (33:54); + What about the US market? (38:19)
More Information on the Guest + Website: AllioCapital.com
Robert Smallbone, aka The Contrarian Capitalist, joins the podcast to discuss his view that recession fears are overblown and a fresh "blow-off top" is coming. This podcast episode was recorded on Thursday, March 13, 2025 and made available to premium subscribers less than 24 hours later! More information on premium subscriptions is available on our Substack. Content Highlights * Bearishness appears to have taken over markets. The S&P 500 just entered a correction. The guest is not buying that narrative (1:16); * The uncertainty created by the new US president may be intentional to lower bond yields -- and interest rates (4:15); * European and UK stock indexes should have more upside ahead (7:21); * Background on the guest (12:46); * The view on gold and silver (16:11); * Crypto discussion (18:40).
More From the Guest * Substack * X: @ContrarianRob88
Scott Colbert, chief economist at Commerce Trust in St. Louis, rejoins the podcast to discuss why the economy can continue to expand even with the onset of Trump tariffs. This podcast episode was recorded on March 6, 2025 and was made available to premium subscribers exclusively the same day it was recorded. Information on premium membership is avaliable here. Content Highlights * The "Trump tariff barrage" will lead to slower growth, lower economic activity, and higher inflation -- in the short term (1:51); * Over the medium term however, tariffs should not trigger a recession, nor will they have a lasting impact on prices aka inflation (6:24); * Labor markets: Immigration has ground to a halt, but people are aging out of the workforce. Government layoffs notwithstanding, that should result in a wash (10:23); * Ultimately the economic cycle is half way through its growth stage, which should run for another four years. However this won't be great for growth stocks like the 'magnificent 7'... (15:14); * Fixed income is suddenly an attractive asset class and international stocks have tailwinds as well... (18:03); * The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker is suddenly predicting a negative print for first-quarter GDP. There are logical reasons for this (24:23).
More on the Guest * Website: CommerceTrustCompany.com; * Published insights from Commerce Trust Co.
Phil Pecsok of Anacapa Advisors rejoins the podcast to discuss the return of pessimism to the market and the economic and market repercussions of Trump's various policies.
This podcast episode was recorded in two segments, the second on Feb. 24 with the express purpose of discussing with the then-nascent sell-off and Nvidia (NVDA) earnings. More information is available here.
This podcast deviates from the usual format by including the guest's first-hand account of the LA wildfires. This admittedly has only limited relation to investing, but was kept mostly intact for human interest reasons. Listeners can skip past these segments, identified below. Content Highlights * Walmart (WMT) earnings ushered in a fresh round of selling in stocks that has yet to reverse (1:05) * The concerns raised by Walmart earnings are legitimate, but stocks should still rise this year (5:02); * The guest, a resident of the Pacific Palisades, recounts his harrowing experience with the LA fires (11:25); * Economic repercussions of the fires (14:32); * Trump will ultimately be good for the economy and for markets. Fade any Trump-generated market panic (27:51); * Why you shouldn't buy defense contractor stocks yet (37:18); * The outlook for inflation is not great. This will likely keep the Fed from cutting rates (41:52).
For more on the guest and his firm, visit the website AnacapaAdvisors.com.
Dan Rasmussen of Verdad Capital joins the podcast to discuss the dwindling prospects for AI stocks and why investors might want to look outside the US for better returns. This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers on Monday, Feb. 17, 2025 without ads or announcements. For more information about premium membership options, visit our Substack. Content Highlights * AI stocks have been on an incredible run, massively growing profits without much capital spending. That equation has changed... (1:51); * Tech companies are going from software businesses to manufacturing concerns -- capital- and energy-intensive businesses that simply can't produce the same growth as previous (6:03); * DeepSeek claims to be able to reduce the cost of AI applications. How does that factor in to the equation? (9:09); * So if the 'Mag 7' and AI stocks won't drive the market higher, then what will? Where will growth come from? (12:16); * One place to start is to look for global diversification. Outside the US, stocks are meaningful cheaper... (15:24); * The guest's book 'The Humble Investor' (21:37); * What can supply 'edge' in investing? There are some things. Legal ones... (27:10); * Background on the guest (33:02); * The guest is a historian by trade. What historical period is perhaps most comparable to the present day? Unfortunately, it looks an awful lot like 'peak bubble'... (36:08);
More Information on the Guest * Website: VerdadCap.com; * Twitter/X: @VerdadCap.
Rohit Goel of Breakout Capital joins the podcast to discuss his view that the boom in the US dollar (and in US dollar-denominated assets) will soon give way, to be replaced by a long-awaited bullish cycle in emerging markets. Content Highlights * Markets have grown accustomed to US dollar dominance and with it a surge in US assets, specifically stocks. That is due for a cyclical reversal (1:00); * There are three factors supporting US growth. One of them is almost certainly due to run its course (4:43); * The global economy revolves around the US consumer as driver of growth. But that too can change -- and other markets are better equipped to pick up the slack on their own (9:26); * Despite all this, the US dollar should maintain its status as reserve currency. However, its dominance is waning (14:55); * Background on the guest (23:28); * Big tech stocks have worked very well for over a decade. But things are shifting to eat into their cashflows and there are reasons to believe too much optimism could be priced in... (26:07); * The trend is for growth to originate elsewhere than US tech... (30:28); * Discussion of frontier markets (35:33).
The guest requests listeners connect through LinkedIn.
Les Rubin of Main Street Economics joins the podcast to discuss his chief concern facing not just markets and economies, but the world at large: US sovereign debt.
This podcast episode was recorded on Wednesday, Jan. 22, 2025 and released to premium subscribers the same day. Information on premium subscriptions, including the vast benefits, are available on our Substack.
Content Highlights * The US economy is headed to 'serious problems' and the guest's mission is to educate people to the gravity of the situation (1:47); * Debt and fiscal deficits are nothing for the US. But its debt/GDP ratios is reaching a breaking point (2:57); * How soon might the breaking point arrive? (5:30); * Is there anything from the new Trump administration that might turn the tide? Elon Musk's DOGE program has promise... (11:02); * What about tariffs? (16:22); * Background on the guest (20:36); * The need for more education: not just financial literacy, but economics (23:55).
More Information on the Guest * Website: MainStreetEconomics.org; * YouTube: MainStreetEconomics762; * LinkedIn: Main-Street-Economics; * Twitter/X: @MainStreetEcon; * Instagram: @MainStreetEconomics; * Facebook: MainStreetEconomics.
Farid Guindo of Drill Capital Management joins the podcast to discuss his bullish views on natural gas -- not the commodity itself, necessarily, but its application to meet future energy demand. Content Highlights * Natural gas as the energy of the future even as prices of the commodity itself plummet (1:08); * Oil exploration is becoming increasingly difficult, expensive, and risky (2:58); * The 'John D. Rockefeller moment' for natural gas (5:46); * What role can nuclear energy play? (16:03); * In natural gas, there will be winners and losers, however... (18:00); * Where are the best opportunities? (19:51); * Background on the guest (28:39); * How will the new presidential administration (Trump 2.0) impact things? (41:38).
Jonathan Browne, portfolio manager at RiverNorth Capital, joins the podcast to discuss investment opportunities in municipal bonds, specifically through the closed-end fund structure. This podcast episode was made available to premium subscribers the day after recording and without ads or announcements. To become a premium subscriber, visit our Substack. Content Highlights * Quick primer on closed-end funds and their difference with mutual funds and ETFs (1:18); * Municipal bonds and what to look for there (16:01); * What kind of yield can investors expect from this asset class? (23:31); * Background on the guest (26:50); * Rising interest rates and inflation are certainly a risk for muni bonds, but the risk/reward is set up constructively... (30:59); * Muni closed-end funds: a contrarian pick (37:28)
For more on the guest, visit the website RiverNorth.com
https://contrarianpod.com/content/podcasts/season6/us-election-black-swans-chances-political-violence/Dr. Mike Blyth of risk services company Sigma7, joins the podcast to discuss 'unknown unknowns' facing next week's US election.
Blyth is a career national security professional, having worked for US and British civil and military operations globally.
This podcast episode was recorded on Oct. 30, 2024 and was made available to premium subscribers that day. To learn about premium subscription options, visit our Substack. Content Highlights * Background on the guest and why he is qualified to speak of all things national and international security (1:42); * Main concerns entering the election. External and internal agitators have raised the risk of political violence (4:57); * Gaming out the various scenarios. Almost all involve violence, especially if former President Donald Trump is not elected (7:26); * The narrative on social media and elsewhere is consistent with what typically presages violence. "It's a tinderbox. We're waiting for the flame to be lit" (11:26); * What parts of the economy might be most at risk and which might be more resilient (16:49); * What about geopolitical risks? (20:42).
For more about the guest, visit the website S7risk.com.
Marc Chapman of Bannockburn Global Forex rejoins the podcast to discuss all things US election and the impact a Trump victory would have on economics and financial markets.
This podcast episode was recorded Monday, Oct. 28, 2024 and was made available for premium subscribers that same day. More information about premium subscriptions is available on our Substack. Content Highlights * The impact of a Trump victory next Tuesday is seen as greater as the impact of a Harris victory. What this means for markets and the economy (2:11); * What if Trump doesn't win? That has become the contrarian take (3:45); * How it all might affect Mexico, the US' largest trading partner (5:40); * The US-Canada-Mexico free trade agreement is up for review next year. Expect more concessions from Mexico regardless of who's in the White House (and Congress) (12:22); * However the outlook is not all bad for all Mexican securities... (15:40); * Concerns Trump will try to limit the Federal Reserve's independence (19:38); * Don't overlook the possibility of a recession early in the next president's term (25:44); * Trump victory may lead to more mergers and acquisitions (26:50).
More From the Guest * Website: MarcToMarket.com; * X: @marcmakingsense.
Flip Pidot, founder of American Civics Exchange, joins the podcast to discuss trends in polling and prediction markets and why these are increasingly pointing to victory for Donald Trump -- and a Republican sweep of Congress.
This podcast episode was recorded on Oct. 22, 2024, and made available for premium subscribers that same day -- without ads or announcements. More information on premium membership options is available on our Substack page. Content Highlights * What started as a toss-up has quickly moved to resounding victory for Trump (1:38); * About $40 million-worth of pro-Trump bets have flooded prediction markets in recent weeks (4:55); * Early vote data is also clearly favoring Trump (12:58); * Background on the guest (23:05); * If the outcome of the election is close, either side is likely to immediately challenge the results in court (34:30); * Fortunately, the guest views the likelihood as remote (40:28)
More From the Guest * Website: AmCiv.com; * X: @FlipPidot; * Prediction/polling aggregator: TheSupermodel.com.
Tony Greer of TG Macro joins the podcast to discuss his bullish view on industrial commodities, especially oil, AI, the upcoming presidential election, and more.
This podcast was recorded on Wednesday, Sept. 25, 2024, and was made available to premium subscribers the next day. More information on premium subscriptions is available on our Substack. There are a few points in this episode where adult language is used. Listener discretion is advised.Content Highlights * Why energy commodities, precious and base metals are all set up to rally (1:31); * China's stimulus package boosted industrial metals. The bounce should not be limited to the short term... (4:57); * There are a number of ways to express the 'long commodities' trade. ETFs may be the simplest... (8:59) * The bullish case for uranium (10:37); * Don't fade the AI story (14:20); * The inevitable cryptocurrency discussion (17:04); * Background on the guest (22:30); * Listener question: What's the inflection point for a move higher in industrial commodities? (26:10); * Election discussion (28:17).
More Information on the Guest * Website: TgMacro.com; * Twitter/X: @TgMacro; * Substack: @TgMacro.
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Megan Gorman joins the podcast to discuss her book 'All the Presidents' Money; How the Men Who Governed America Governed Their Money,' in an effort to locate the contrarian investors. There are several, led by Gerald Ford. The guest also discusses the investments of year's presidential and vice presidential candidates.
Content Highlights * The most contrarian investor among US presidents? Gerald Ford, the man who pioneered sitting on corporate boards and the presidential speaker circuit (1:24); * Perhaps unsurprisingly US presidents were quite conservative with their investments, Ford included... (6:37); * Many presidential investments were also contrarian by avoiding (individual) public equities (11:04); * Franklin D. Roosevelt was one of several presidents who entered the White House as wealthy individuals -- and blew some of it by failing to perform basic due diligence (15:51); * Another oft-overlooked president, Calvin Coolidge, supplies a classic example of mis-timing the market... (21:11); * What we know about the investments of this year's candidates for president and vice president (25:52); * Another very unsuccessful investor: Ulysses S. Grant. One of the most successful: George Washington (37:14); * Presidents probably don't need to own individual stocks. Vice President Kamala Harris exemplifies this (47:18)
More Information on the Guest * Website: AllThePresidentsMoney.com; * X: @Megan_E_Gorman.
James Fishback, founder of Azoria Partners, joins the podcast to discuss the Fed's shift in monetary policy, opportunities afforded by another Trump administration, why AI hype is real, and a host of other issues.
This podcast was recorded on Sept. 4 and was being made available to premium subscribers that same day. More information about premium subscriptions is available here. NB: The guest is outspoken on certain political beliefs discussed here. These views are not necessarily shared by the host or the Contrarian Investor Podcast more generally. Content Highlights * The Federal Reserve is expect to cut 200 basis points off of interest rates when all is said and done. The reality should fall well short of that measure... (1:37); * The US is economy growing in aggregate. Pain points are felt among lower socio-economic classes (4:44); * The major change will not come from a major shift in monetary policy but what happens fiscally, with the November election (9:16); * How to trade a Republican sweep? There's an acronym: T-R-U-M-P (10:54); * Many companies have taken advantage of cheap labor supplied by illegal immigration. Their stocks will suffer once this is rolled back... (15:31); * AI is real. Productivity gains will be massive (17:44); * Crypto discussion. The best opportunity for bulls may to bet on lower volatility for Bitcoin... (22:47); * Background on the guest (28:33); * Azoria's first ETF will be called the Meritocracy Fund. The strategy (33:38); * Another opportunity: Argentina (43:18)
More Information on the Guest * Website: AzoriaPartners.com; * Substack: HeadofMacro.com; * X: @j_fishback; * LinkedIn: Azoria-Partners
Colin White of Verecan Capital Management joins the podcast to discuss his views on the economy and why he considers the likelihood of a 'soft landing' to have increased...
This podcast was recorded on Wednesday, Aug. 14, 2024 and made available for premium subscribers the following day. More information on premium subscriptions is avalailable on our Substack page.. Content Highlights * Economic indicators are pointing to increased chances of a 'soft landing'... (1:10); * The Federal Reserve (and other central banks) have 'bullets in their gun' in the form of interest rate cuts, should the need arise. Another reason for confidence (3:27); * Employment numbers are the most important datapoint to watch right now (6:41); * The Age of Finfluencers and dangers it has wrought (14:32); * Central banks have a responsibility to act in the best interests of the general public. If they stray from that responsibility, the structure that governs central banks can change (19:29); * Background on the guest (23:31); * No, real estate is not always a good investment (34:11); * AI discussion (37:41).
More on the Guest: * Website: Verecan.com; * Podcast: Barenaked Money; * LinkedIn.
Chad Olivier of Baton Rouge, La.-based The Olivier Group joins the podcast to discuss his view of markets and why he is bullish about bonds and technology stocks.
This podcast episode was recorded July 30, 2024 and was made available to premium subscribers the following day -- without ads or announcements. More information on premium subscriptions is available here. Content Highlights * The view of the bond market has changed with the Fed (1:18) * The Olivier Group started adding bond exposure through ETFs in the first quarter and expects to add to it... (3:18); * The 10-year yield should drop to the 3% range "by this time next year" (4:43); * Small caps have recovered lately but the guest is less bullish there (9:31); * Technology stocks are much better positioned than in previous cycles (10:56); * Municipal bonds may also present an opportunity... (15:41); * Background on the guest (20:05); * Oil markets could present another opportunity, especially large cap, dividend-paying companies (23:58); * The political outlook and its impact on markets (25:51).
For more information on the guest visit the website OlivierGroup.com.
Dana Samuelson, president of the American Gold Exchange, joins the Contrarian Investor Podcast to discuss why gold prices are set up to rally further -- even after a 20% rise so far this year.
This podcast episode was recorded on Friday, July 19. 2024 and made available to premium subscribers the following business day. For information on becoming a premium subscriber -- and the host of other benefits it involves -- visit our Substack. Content Highlights * Gold is trading right near all-time highs. Can there really be more room for upside? (1:48); * One thing missing from the equation for still higher gold prices is interest rate cuts... (3:36); * Another thing missing is fear in the market (5:07); * Gold has rallied 20% so far this year. A Fed rate cut will supply another 10%. $3000/oz. gold is in sight... (8:36); * What of the argument that there's no tangible use for gold? (11:20); * Why gold coins are preferable to bars (14:30); * Background on the guest (19:39); * Quarters and dimes vintage 1964 are 90% silver (26:40); * View on digital currencies and Bitcoin. There is a place for it... (33:20); * How much of one's portfolio should be earmarked for gold and precious metals? (37:15)
More Information on the Guest * Twitter/X: @DanaSamuelson99; * LinkedIn: @American-Gold-Exchange-Inc; * Website: AmerGold.com; * YouTube: AmericanGoldExchangeAustin.
Darius Foroux, author of the upcoming book 'The Stoic Path to Wealth,' joined the podcast to discuss his, well, stoic approach to investing.
This podcast episode was recorded on Tuesday, June 25, 2024 and was made available to premium subscribers the following day -- without ads or announcements. For more information on premium subscriptions, visit our Substack.
Content Highlights * How interest in philosophy rekindled his interest in investing after the great financial crisis (1:32); * A brief introduction to stoicism, a 2,300 year-old philosophy that is distinct from cynicism (4:08); * How to apply this to investing (6:14); * Isn't investing in indexes just the best way to go? (12:38); * The '90/10' portfolio allocation: 90% in the S&P 500, 10% in individual stocks (17:24); * The Dutch Stripe, trades in Amsterdam and on Pink Sheets (18:06); * Background on the guest (28:54); * The guest's second individual stock holding. Listeners will have heard about this one (33:01); * How does a stoic combat FOMO (41:41).
More Information on the Guest * Website: DariusForoux.com; * Twitter: @DariusForoux; * Instagram: @DariusForoux; * YouTube: @DariusForoux.
Not investment advice.
Leo Schmidt, founder of family office River Eddy Capital, rejoins the podcast to discuss his views on economy, markets, and where to invest capital in what may be a 'stagflation lite' environment.
This podcast episode was recorded on Friday, June 7, 2024 and made available to premium subscribers the following Monday. Visit the Substack or Supercast for more information about premium subscriptions. Content Highlights * "Labor markets are way too hot." There will be "no landing" (1:48); * Non-farm payrolls came out much stronger than anticipated. What this says about the labor market (4:59); * 'Stagflation lite' (8:31); * Our views of credit creation are outdated. The shadow banking system has replaced commercial banks as the primary source of credit. What this means (11:59); * The Federal Reserve probably needs to cut rates. Could they? Probably not -- this year (22:21); * What does an investor do now? First up: Stocks that are AI/Nvidia (NVDA) plays. Celestica (CLS), Flex (FLEX), Sanmina (SANM), Jabil (JBL) (27:51); * Pharma spin-outs: Haleon (HLN), Kenvue (KVUE), Organon (OGN), Viatris (VTRS) (31:54); * Dollar stores, especially Dollar Tree (DLTR), are poised to outperform once there is an economic slowdown (39:07); * The bullish case for pipeline companies (46:59).
Bob Elliott of Unlimited rejoins the podcast to discuss his view that stock markets are pricing in a lot of optimism that may not be based on economic realities... This podcast episode was recorded on Tuesday, May 28, 2024 and made available to premium subscribers the following day. To become a premium subscriber, visit our Substack. Content Highlights * Stock markets are pricing in a lot of optimism. Just how unrealistic is that? (1:19); * What is there to indicate the economy could slow this year or even next? (4:34); * A recession may be years away rather than months under current conditions. But conditions, as we know, can change quickly... (8:58); * There is a precedence to interest rates going up dramatically without it causing an immediate and dramatic entrenchment in economic growth (11:52); * Tech stocks might be overvalued but comparisons to the dot-com bubble are unfair and inaccurate -- and may preclude a spectacular bust (16:10); * Today's economic expansion is income-driven. Not a result of credit expansion (18:13); * What kinds of indicators should investors study to spot a slowdown in this particular type of economic activity? (30:45); * Regional banks are for the most part fairly priced at present... (35:50).
More Information on the Guest * Website: UnlimitedFunds.com; * Twitter: @BoBEUnlimited; * YouTube: @BobEUnlimited.
Ayesha Tariq, founder of Macro Visor, rejoins the podcast to discuss her views on the economy, markets, and where investors should look for opportunities.
This episode was recorded on Tuesday, May 7 and made available to premium subscribers that same day. Become a premium subscriber. Content Highlights: * The macro set-up and why people are talking about stagflation (1:56); * The K-shaped economy and the damage being done (3:31); * Fed Chair Jerome Powell claims there's no stag and no flation. Is he wrong? (It wouldn't be the first time) (8:50); * Faced with this backdrop, what does one do as an investor? (13:03); * China: There are still reasons to worry, even though the bleeding from the property market has abated a bit... (15:58); * India: long term growth story. Also copper, oil, and Japan (17:11); * The guest's favorite areas for opportunity right now: UK and India (21:07); * A long-term concern is the fiscal situation in the US (22:00).
For more about the guest, visit her firm's website MacroVisor.com or follow her on Twitter/X.
This episode was recorded April 15, 2024, and was made available to premium subscribers the following day -- without ads or interruptions. More information on premium subscriptions is available on our Substack page.
Dr. Doug Greenig of Florin Court Capital joins the podcast to discuss his worldview -- one where the US is no longer the sole superpower -- the situation in the Middle East, US fiscal concerns, artificial intelligence, and trends in commodities.
And of course how this all impacts his trading strategy.
Content Highlights
- The world has undergone many changes with the US emerging as its lone superpower. That era is over (2:09);
- China is a legitimate competitor to the US. It's just having a bad moment due to the property market. But China is not going anywhere as an economic or military power (6:07);
- The guest's trend-following model trades 500 assets and seeks to capture medium-term changes. What he looks for to enter and exit trades (16:52);
- One trend is lower electricity prices in Europe (19:19);
- Populism and the latter stage of democratic government make for a potentially bearish outlook for US stocks (27:15);
- Background on the guest (41:04);
- Iran is still a force in the Middle East and beyond. Discussion of the weekend drone attack on Israel, which may have been an attempt at making a point (48:40);
- As Russia's economy illustrates, sanctions are hard to enforce. There may be inherent bias in many pro-Western analysis... (53:03);
- US fiscal problems are real. The guest says it has "something like five years" before this takes a serious toll. Artificial intelligence may postpone this however (55:45);
- Hypersonic missiles: One area where Russia and China have an edge over the US (57:45).
More Information on the Guest * LinkedIn; * Website: FlorinCourt.com.
This podcast episode was recorded Friday, March 29, 2024 and made available to premium subscribers the next trading day. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits, visit our substack.
Enrique Abeyta of HX Research rejoins the podcast to discuss his (constructive) views on the stock market, why commercial real estate concerns are overdone, and to provide one stock pick -- and it's not Nvidia, though he does discuss that at some length.
Some mature language is used at a few points. Sensitive listeners should be advised.
The guest's microphone setup is significantly better than the host's so don't get discouraged by the host sounding like he's hiding in a cave at the open.
Content Highlights * Trends are underrated. Many investors don't respect them or understand what they mean. The current trend is clearly long-term bullish for stocks (2:21); * However over the short term there could (probably will) be a pull back -- as appears to be happening the week after recording (5:24); * On the whole, however, the outlook is very constructive. So constructive that the guest has only seen this clarity 10 times or less in his 30-year career (12:30); * When it comes to the Federal Reserve, there is a strong possibility interest rate policy stays roughly the same... (15:36); * Contrarian take: there's no need to worry about commercial real estate: (19:00); * Regional banks presented an opportunity a year ago. New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) is not an opportunity now (23:54); * Views on Nvidia (NVDA): not super constructive (28:20); * One long term idea: Independent power producer Talen Energy (TLNE), owner of a nuclear power plant. The company recently emerged from bankruptcy (34:51).
More on the Guest * Website: HXResearch.net; * Twitter/X: @EnriqueAbeyta.
This podcast was released for premium subscribers on March 20, 2024. For more information on premium subscriptions please visit our Substack.
Financial market historian Daniel Peris joins the podcast to discuss his latest book, The Ownership Dividend, and why the next stage of the investing cycle will be marked by renewed focus on dividends and cash flows.
Note: The host's mic was a little 'stuffy' for this episode but the guest comes in loud and clear!
Content Highlights
- Cashflows have become ignored in the marketplace with investors accustomed to speculation over income. That is due to change (2:55);
- No, this isn't about value versus growth. Dividends and more notably buybacks are everywhere (5:22);
- Warren Buffett has long said that companies should reinvest in the business rather than pay out dividends. But Buffett is no longer a minority shareholder... (18:30)
- Background on the guest and unexpected detour into Russia/Ukraine (27:37);
- Views on different sectors of the stock market from a dividend perspective (36:33);
- What does the current era of dividend payouts say about the investing cycle? (42:40).
More on the Guest * Website: StrategicDividendInvestor.com; * Twitter: @HistoryInvestor; * Order the book.
This podcast episode was recorded Friday, March 1, 2024, and was made available to premium subscribers on March 6. For more information on premium memberships visit our Substack.
Mark Higgins, author of the new book, Investing in Financial History, joins the podcast to discuss lessons from the past and what period is the most appropriate point of comparison to today's market environment.
Content Highlights * What period from the past compares closest to the one we're living through now? It's a combination of several... (1:56); * The last time the US -- and Federal Reserve -- battled serious inflation was from 1965 to the early 1980s. Here there are several parallels to today's age... (4:36); * The Fed appeared to turn more accommodative in December and January. This may have been a mistake (9:04); * Financial history is very much a history of panics, but there has not been a major bank run in the US since the Great Depression (11:51); * Portfolios have become increasingly complex without proper consideration of cost -- and risks (15:40); * Decentralized currencies aren't new and in fact once characterized the US dollar -- and for the same reason (fear of central banks and fiat currency, etc). That didn't end well... (18:06); * Background on the guest and how he came to write the book (22:05); * Bubbles and their challenges. Some commonalities include the media as trailing indicator... (27:17); * The 180 degree turn on public debt by US public officials (29:36); * The US dollar will likely be replaced as global reserve currency one day (33:25).
More From the Guest * Website: EnlightenedInvestor.com; * Order the book on Amazon.com; * LinkedIn: @MarkHiggins.
This podcast was recorded on Feb. 15, 2024 and made available to premium subscribers that same day (without ads, natch). For more information on premium subscriptions, visit our Substack or Supercast.
Ted Oakley, founder of Austin, Tex.-based Oxbow Advisors, joins the podcast to discuss his views on markets and the economy and why this is a time to get defensive with one's portfolio.
Content Highlights * The stock market highs for the year will be set during the first quarter (1:47); * "There are things that people don't see" (or at least don't publicize) that are pointing to a slowdown in the economy (3:08); * One of these is the US consumer, who is now borrowing to finance purchases (4:59); * Another is commercial real estate, which is just starting to rear its head... (6:05); * Interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve may be further away than realized due to inflation risks (8:22); * Oxbow has been invested in 'Magnificent 7' stocks Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOG), and Apple (AAPL) for some time, but has been trimming these holdings and is certainly not looking to add more. But certain defensive sectors got cheap recently... (10:48); * Background on the guest (23:07); * What previous period in investment history is today's market most reminiscent of? Bulls will not like this answer... (29:32).
More from the guest * Website: OxbowAdvisors.com; * Twitter: @Oxbow_Advisors; * YouTube; * LinkedIn: Oxbow_Advisors.
Scott Colbert, chief economist at Commerce Trust Company in St. Louis, rejoins the podcast to discuss his "surprisingly optimistic" outlook for the US economy in 2024.
This podcast episode was recorded Jan. 30, 2024, and was made available to premium subscribers that same day. Become a premium subscriber through our Substack or Supercast pages. Content Highlights * The outlook for the economy is surprisingly optimistic given the set-up going in to last year (1:30); * The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates for some time (2:39); * Can stocks continue to advance without rate cuts? The outlook for small caps and mid-caps... (6:35); * The outlook for bonds: surprisingly constructive even if there aren't rate cuts right away (10:05); * How the economy is breaking down geographically in the US... (17:01); * Commercial real estate is 'the canary in the coal mine' but nowhere near as pervasive as subprime residential pre-2008... (24:36); * The guest's take on the impact of this year's US presidential election (28:15); * Top concerns start with deficit spending... (33:23); * An economist's take on the AI revolution (39:28).
More on the Guest * Website: CommerceTrustCompany.com; * Published insights from Commerce Trust Co.
This episode was recorded on Jan. 8, 2024, and made available to premium subscribers the following day -- without ads or announcements. For details on how to become a premium subscriber (it's very easy), visit our Substack or Supercast.
Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics rejoins the podcast to discuss his outlook for the economy and markets in 2024.
Content Highlights * Knapp's outlook for 2023 played out until September. Then the Fed changed the rules of the game somewhat and markets now face a difficult period... (3:29); * Investors are expecting a recovery in earnings, which may be hard to achieve (7:00); * The drop in inflation can be traced to one cause: a deflationary shock in goods prices (8:57); * How the Fed can justify interest rates as soon as March... (11:36); * Why bonds haven't continued to rally this year (16:58); * The Fed will cut to 4% by year-end and the yield curve should dis-invert with 10-year Treasury yields rising to 4.5% (22:06); * Fed independence is taken for granted. That may be about to change... (28:35); * Only four occasions post WWII have seen yield curve inversions this deep. All have led to major recessions... (36:40); * How do stocks look in this whole picture (40:31)
More About the Guest * Website and newsletter: IronsidesMacro.substack.com; * Twitter: @BarryKnapp.
This podcast episode was recorded Dec. 20, 2023 and made available exclusively -- without ads or announcements -- for premium subscribers that same day. This is just one of the benefits of becoming a premium subscriber. The others are detailed on our Supercast or Substack pages. Kyrill Asatur, co-founder and CEO of Centerfin, re-joins the podcast to discuss his views going into 2024 and the likelihood there won't be a 'soft landing' for the economy next year. Content Highlights * Consensus estimates for 2024 are going to be wrong, just like they were for this year and every year before it (2:12); * Coming in to this year the banking sector was a concern, though as it turned out for the wrong reasons (4:39); * The catalyst for the reversal this fall and the new, dovish Fed (7:26); * The contrarian call is that they're won't be a soft landing -- or a stock market crash (11:44); * Possible explanation for the 'Fed pivot' (16:48); * How the guest is allocating assets going into 2024 (23:56); * Artificial Intelligence (AI) discussion (29:02).
More on Kyrill Asatur and Centerfin: * Website: Centerfin.co; * Twitter: @WallStHobbes; * LinkedIn page; * Facebook: CenterfinHQ; * Instagram: @CenterfinHQ.
This podcast is for informational purposes only. Nothing here is intended as investment advice. Do your own research, make your own decisions.
This podcast episode was recorded Nov. 29, 2023 and made available to premium subscribers the following day. To become a premium subscriber, sign up through our Substack or Supercast.
Jared Dillian of the Daily Dirt Nap joins the podcast to discuss his bullish views on short-term Treasuries and less optimistic outlook for the US economy. He also discusses his work as an author and views on disparate issues facing society.
Note: The podcast episode contains some mature language.
Content Highlights * The 'soft landing' scenario appears to have become the base case. Dillian doesn't quite buy that (1:37); * To be bullish on short-term Treasuries one needs to believe the Fed is going to cut rates. That is imminent (4:26); * Addressing the inflation bogeyman. The risk has maybe receded over the short term, but what about a return over the medium term? There is historical precedent for this from the last time inflation was a serious force in the US... (9:37); * Background on the guest and a broad discussion of his time at Lehman Brothers (including its downfall), working on Wall Street, career paths, education, and more...(15:48)
More on the Guest * Website: DailyDirtNap.com; * Twitter: @DailyDirtNap; * Facebook: JaredDillianAuthor; * Pre-order his book on Amazon.
Mention this podcast for a generous discount on the Daily Dirt Nap!
This podcast episode was recorded on Nov. 15, 2023 and released to premium subscribers the following day --without ads. To become a premium subscriber, sign up through our Substack or Supercast.
Kevin T. Carter, founder and chief investment officer of EMQQ Global, joins the podcast to discuss opportunities in emerging and frontier market stocks. His first lesson: don't bother with the indexes. The real opportunities are to be found in individual stocks.
Content Highlights * The first issue with emerging market investing is the index. These do not accurately reflect the real opportunities (1:19); * Individual stocks, especially of technology companies, have performed far better than the underlying index (6:25); * There are three mega-trends that point to emerging markets growth over the long term (8:03); * South America's E-commerce giant is not in any EM index. Neither is Brazilian digital bank Nu Holdings (15:14); * A broad discussion of China, where things are not always as they appear in the western media... (19:22); * Right now all eyes are on India. The story there is still in the early innings, but unfortunately options are limited for investors limited to US exchanges... (42:13); * Other markets in South Asia also offer compelling opportunities. Especially Bangladesh (48:58).
More Information on the Guest * LinkedIn: TheKevinTCarter; * Website: EMQQGlobal.com.
This episode was released to premium subscribers on Oct. 26 without ads or announcements. More information about premium subscriptions is available on our Substack or Supercast.
Tom Carney, co-head of fixed-income at Weitz Investments, joins the podcast to discuss his (perhaps surprisingly) optimistic view of bond and credit markets.
Content Highlights * Carney's views on the bond market. Interest rates have created a much-improved, encouraging environment for investors (1:33); * Opportunities include the non-corporate bond market, specifically the asset-backed securities market (5:38); * The guest has a unique view into consumer lending. There are defaults, but not more than usual (10:37); * Discussion of the mortgage-backed securities market. There too, defaults are not particularly prevalent (13:05); * How big of a concern is the Fed? (24:25); * Background on the guest (29:57); * What about his concerns facing markets at present? (38:09).
For more information on the guest, visit the website WeitzInvestments.com.
A short actionable highlights reel from this podcast was released to premium subscribers last Thursday, Oct. 12 -- the same day it was recorded. The full episode and transcript were made available to premium subscribers the following day. Become a premium subscriber by signing up on our Substack or Supercast.
David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors rejoins the podcast to discuss his views on the economy, Fed, stocks, and bonds.
Not investment advice.
Content Highlights * Views on the bond market (1:31); * The Federal Reserve will likely pause again at its next meeting, on Nov. 1 (6:41); * Views on stocks (11:30); * Once consensus emerges that the Fed is 'done' it will remove a major wall of worry and headwind the magnitude of which few are anticipating... (16:14); * Targets for S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Industrials, 10-year yields... (21:21); * How the 'bust' scenario will play out (27:02),
To contact David Hunter and find out about subscribing to his newsletter, you need to send him a direct message on Twitter. His handle is @DaveHContrarian. The host will not forward your messages.
This episode was released to premium subscribers -- without ads or announcements -- on Sept. 18. Find out about premium subscriptions here.
Phil Pecsok, founder of Anacapa Advisors, joins the podcast to supply a primer on contrarian investing: What it is, what catalysts to look for, and some valuable lessons from his 30-year career on Wall Street.
Content Highlights * The guest provides his views of contrarian investing and how he uses it (1:27); * Examples of blaring contrarian signals from past cycles (9:00); * The Fed is likely to stay hawkish (13:14); * The 'Rule of 3' in contrarian investing as illustrated in a story from early in the guest's career (16:37); * His views on cryptos (24:13); * Background on the guest (30:01); * Sports betting is an efficient way to lose money, unless you're running the book. But sometimes there are sometimes contrarian opportunities (37:46); * What keeps the guest up at night? Nothing in particular, though stocks are probably overbought even after the recent sell-off (45:17).
For more on the guest and his firm, visit the website AnacapaAdvisors.com.
This podcast episode was recorded on Aug. 29 with a 'highlight' clip of the most actionable insights released to premium subscribers that same day. Premium subscribers then received the full episode -- without ads or interruptions -- the following day, on Aug. 30. To find out more about premium subscriptions, visit our Substack.
Ayesha Tariq, co-founder of MacroVisor, rejoins the podcast to discuss why she is expecting a hard landing for the US economy along with other contrarian views she has about the Federal Reserve and global financial markets.
Content Highlights
- The 'soft landing' scenario has effectively become the base case. Why that's wrong (1:32);
- Unlike many (most?) recessions, this one will not be preceded by a Fed-induced credit event. For this reason, it will be milder (4:44);
- The Federal Reserve is likely to hike at its next meeting on Sept. 20. That will be its last hike this cycle (8:53);
- The US downturn will not necessarily lead to a global recession (12:58);
- The outlook for commodities, specifically copper, is bullish despite the bearish economic outlook (18:48);
- Rate hikes might be off the table, but quantitative tightening could still be incoming in 2024 (23:45);
- New segment: Listener questions. Whoever's questions are read wins a free Contrarian mug. First up: what to make of Nvidia and AI (26:36);
- Next listener question: what to look for in bank earnings? (31:42);
- One area of the stock market where the guest is particularly bullish (36:35).
For more about the guest, visit her website MacroVisor.com or follow her on Twitter/X. Not investment advice.
This podcast was released to premium subscribers on Aug. 24. Become a premium subscriber on Substack or Supercast.
Cormac Kinney, founder and CEO of Diamond Standard, joins the podcast to discuss the concept of diamonds as an asset class: why they haven't become an investable commodity like other precious metals, how that may be changing, and what investors can expect in terms of correlation to other assets and alpha.
Content Highlights * Why haven't diamonds become an investable asset class like precious metals or other commodities? (1:11); * Some of the economics behind diamond production and why supply is dropping dramatically (4:45); * How Diamond Standard is turning diamonds into a fungible commodity (this is where the bars in the cover photo comes in) (7:55); * What are diamonds used for practically, other than jewelry? (11:06); * Diamonds' correlation to other asset classes over time (15:33); * Diamond futures are coming. That will introduce much-needed liquidity (21:45); * Background on the guest (29:30);
More About the Guest * Website: DiamondStandard.co; * Twitter: @DiamondStandard and @CormacKinney; * LinkedIn: DiamondStandard; * Instagram: @DiamondStandard.co; * FaceBook: DiamondStandardCo.
This episode was recorded on Aug. 15 and released to premium subscribers that same day. Become a premium subscriber here.
Brooker Belcourt, founder of Covey.io, rejoins the podcast to discuss the three-pronged consensus that the investment platform's best analysts are picking up right now and the 20 names that have emerged...
(Not investment advice).
Content Highlights * What are the best Covey analysts picking up right now? (1:37) * The platform's 20 best positions are split into four buckets: growth winners like Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA), healthcare (three names including biopharma), 'high-quality' names like Autozone (AZO) and Disney (DIS), and volatility expressed through the levered ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY) (4:55); * What to make of the long volatility bet? (9:40); * Equally interesting is the type of exposure that is absent from the best 20: no crypto, no retail stocks, nothing international... (16:04);
More About the Guest * Website: Covey.io; * Twitter: @CoveyInvest; * LinkedIn: CoveyInvest.
This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers the same day it was recorded. Become a premium subscriber by signing up on our Substack or Supercast.
Peter Kraus, founder and CEO of Aperture Investors, joins the podcast to discuss his views on the economy, why he expects the 'soft landing' to occur, but why it will quickly give way to renewed concerns.
Content Highlights * An economic soft landing is likely, but will be transitional (1:38); * The Fed is unlikely to 'break more stuff' as this spring's banking crisis was a short-term liquidity crisis that has since been resolved. But refinancing will be a problem (4:12); * Inflation will be more persistent and 'sticky' than markets are pricing in right now. This doesn't leave bonds in a very good position (7:20); * When it comes to stocks, expect volatility until late autumn at which point higher interest rates will start to bite (16:17); * The consumer, and consumer stocks, will lead the rebound starting as early as December (19:33); * Background on the guest (26:06); * China's driver of commodity prices may be over (35:42).
More on the Aperture Investors * Website: ApertureInvestors.com; * Twitter: @ApertureInvstrs; * LinkedIn: Aperture-Investors; * Instagram: @ApertureInvestors.
This podcast episode was made availableto premium subscribers on July 25 without ads or announcements. There are many other benefits to being a premium subscriber. Sign up through Supercast or our Substack.
Peter Atwater joins the podcast to discuss the ideas from his latest book, "The Confidence Map: Charting a Path From Chaos to Clarity." Crucially, he tells listeners why investor confidence is today fast approaching the 'invulnerable extreme' that indicates a top in markets...
Content Highlights * Investor preferences change dramatically with their confidence levels. Generally high confidence corresponds to preference for abstract items (NFTs, cryptos) whilst low confidence yields a preference for more practical things (2:48) * Yes, magazine covers can be a reliable contrarian indicator (5:52); * Investor confidence levels are rapidly approaching the 'invulnerable extreme' with AI hype and a bull market for luxury goods (10:08); * How to deal with the question of timing, and signs to look for when seeking to identify a top (15:17); * When it comes to cryptos, the most recent mania has passed and the prospects of another round is remote (18:16); * Background on the guest (24:10); * Investor mania is not defined so much by overconfidence but invulnerability (27:37); * Where does this leave investors in terms of asset allocation? Introducing 'sentiment diversification' (30:08); * Natural gas may be at an inflection point that presages a really (32:19).
More on the Guest * Website: PeterAtwater.com; * Twitter: @Peter_Atwater; * Ways to order the book here.
Not investment advice.
Premium subcribers received this (and every) episode early and without ads.
Stephanie Walter of Erbe Wealth joins the podcast to discuss some of the trade secrets of ultra-wealthy investors. Listeners may be shocked to hear about their very small allocation to public equities...
Content Highlights * A unique way to generate tax-free income through so-called premium financing insurance (1:51); * The security works as a life insurance policy with a premium paid by a bank (5:45); * These securities are illiquid, with a lock-up of 10 to 15 years, but the coupon pays double-digit percent -- tax free (7:34); * Cap rates are starting to rise, creating opportunities in commercial real estate. One example is retail in Wyoming (14:23); * Office space is a different animal however. Too much risk, not enough reward (18:50); * Background on the guest (22:27); * Some of the ways ultra-wealthy allocate funds (very little to public equities), and the mindsets behind them (26:06); * What about cryptos? (33:48); * There are reasons to be concerned about the economy. Taxes could be a wild card here. Also interest rates (34:48).
More Information on the Guest * Website: ErbeWealth.com; * LinkedIn: Erbe-Wealth.
This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers on July 12 without ads or announcements. There are numerous other benefits for the premium service, which are spelled out on our Substack.
Anthony Todd, the founder of Aspect Capital, joins the podcast to discuss the trend-following investment strategy he helped pioneer almost 50 years ago including where it might be particularly applicable in today’s markets.
Content Highlights * What is trend-following? Quick primer (1:06); * What makes a trend? (5:23); * What markets does Aspect Capital trade? (7:52); * Current opportunities (9:11): + Fixed-income (10:09); + Agricultural commodities (10:58); * Price action is paramount in the trend-following model, and it can lead to closing or reversing certain trades. For example, a bond rally... (14:15); * Wait, so is trend-following anti-contrarian? (16:11); * Background on the guest (21:24); * His thoughts on artificial intelligence, or AI... (28:20); * ...and on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies (31:55).
For More Information: * Website: AspectCapital.com; * LinkedIn: Aspect-Capital.
Not investment advice.
This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers on June 15 without ads or announcements. There are numerous other benefits to premium subscriptions, which are spelled out on our Substack.
Chris Bemis, co-founder of X-Cubed Capital, joins the podcast to discuss his views on regional bank credit risk, the nascent bubble in AI tech stocks (and AI more generally), problems in commercial real estate, and how he applies his mathematics background to investing.
Content Highlights * Last September, X-Cubed's credit risk signals flashed red over regional banks, causing the firm to put on some trades to profit. That opportunity has now run its course and the other side may hold more interest... (1:21); * AI tech stocks: It's not 1999 but more like 1995 with the beginning of the seeds of a bubble. The firm is more bullish on mid-cap stocks in general (12:11); * Background on the guest (15:40); * The differences between a multi-manager approach to investing and multi-strategy and why the latter has advantages right now (19:46); * The bearish argument on office space and why he's bullish homeowners (26:20); * Making use of mobile phone data and other 'alternative' data sources (30:00); * AI, artificial intelligence, and why it falls short in many investment approaches (33:18); * Some advice for math students from a mathematics academic (38:37).
More Information on the Guest * Website: x3cmllc.com
Naomi Fink, founder and CEO at Europacifica Consulting in Los Angeles, joins the podcast to discuss her view that inflation will prove more elevated and persistent than market participants are anticipating -- and how and where this impact will be felt.
Content Highlights * Inflation caught investors by surprise and investors could be forgiven for thinking inflation will drop again. But inflation will more likely normalize around a higher rate (3:15); * There are multiple reasons for this: reversal of globalization, limits to technological advancements, supply shocks, geopolitical unrest, and labor supply shortages, to name a few (4:09); * Where does this leave Fed policy? (6:03); * Retailers have been reporting a consumer pullback on big ticket purchases: business cycle or inflation? (13:52); * Companies will need to innovate to deal with more persistent inflation and a skills shortage. Those that don't will be left behind (16:34); * AI is not a cure-all and may in fact be mostly hype (18:23); * Background on the guest (24:53); * Japan and Japan stocks (28:36); * Social security cost of living adjustments are not keeping up with inflation. The impact (33:59); * What options do retirees have to maintain their purchasing power on fixed income? (38:17); * Financial literacy is vital but may be a double-edged sword... (46:28).
More From The Guest * Website: Europacifica.com.
This episode was made available to premium subscribers on May 24, without ads or announcements. To become a premium subscriber sign up on Supercast or Substack.
MIT Economist Simon Johnson joins the podcast to discuss his book, 'Power and Progress, Our Thousand-Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity' and specifically why artificial intelligence is likely overhyped, and that not just from an investment perspective.
Content Highlights * Artificial intelligence's default trajectory is about machine intelligence, code for replacing people with machines. Historically, this has not brought great things (1:21); * Indeed technological progress has not always benefited everybody, but just a small group at the top. Today's advancements are no different (5:11); * Don't expect a boost to business either. Productivity gains should be limited (9:17); * Some of the dangers of Chat GPT and Google's Bard that is driving most business development around AI (20:12); * Background on the guest (24:26); * Thoughts on the current market environment and its potential to spill over into crisis (27:43).
For More Information * Get the book on Amazon: Power and Progress; * Simon Johnson's Wikipedia page; * Twitter: @BaselineScene.
This episode was recorded on Tuesday, May 16 and made available to premium subscribers that same day. To become a premium subscriber sign up on Supercast or Substack.
Value Stock Geek rejoins the podcast to discuss recent portfolio acquisitions Google (GOOG), Meta (META), and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), what's on his watch list, and where and when he could be looking to buy.
Content Highlights * The case for Google stock (1:54); * Artificial intelligence and how that is impacting Google's business (6:40); * Meta and the Metaverse: investing in the legacy business plus Instagram (7:38); * Taiwan Semiconductor: cyclical, yes, but a good bet for the long term (12:39); * 'The Weird Portfolio' and how that works (16:07); * The watchlist and two notable stocks worth watching right now: NVR (NVR) and Deere (DE) (20:39). * Home Depot (HD), another watchlist stock, just reported earnings and lowered guidance due in part to consumers pulling back on big-ticket purchases (29:00).
More Information on the Guest * Substack: SecurityAnalysis.org; * Twitter: @ValueStockGeek; * The Weird Portfolio is discussed in some detail on a previous podcast appearance.
This episode was recorded on Tuesday, May 9 and a short highlights reel was made available to premium subscribers that same day. The full podcast episode followed a day later. To become a premium subscriber sign up on Supercast or Substack.
Elliot Kallen, founder of Prosperity Financial Group, joins the podcast to discuss his expectations for a coming recession, to start this summer, and why some of the best opportunities may be in technology stocks and corporate bonds.
Content Highlights * Tech stocks: the pullback is coming (3:31); * The market is starting to flatline. Look to midcap value stocks (6:04); * The Fed will likely raise rates one more time and then reverse. Time to buy bonds -- corporates (8:47); * Consumers have already started to pull back, judging by some primary evidence the guest gathers... (12:02); * Why the recession will be mild, despite the red flags (17:38); * Background on the guest (24:00); * Active management has its place (30:24); * Thoughts on the next generation growth industries (36:53).
Not investment advice. Do your own research. Make your own decisions. More Information on the Guest * Website: ProsperityFinancialGroup.com; * Facebook; * YouTube.
This podcast episode was recorded on Monday, May 1, and released to premium subscribers a day later. To get early access to podcast recordings and take advantage of a host of other exclusive benefits, sign up to become a premium member at our Substack or Supercast.
Brady Dale joins the podcast to discuss his book, 'SBF: How the FTX bankruptcy unwound crypto's very bad good guy' and offer his thoughts on the present and future of cryptocurrencies.
Content Highlights * Who is Sam Bankman-Fried exactly? Is he a crook? (Yeah, probably) Misunderstood? The author has known SBF for awhile and states that his subject was initially motivated by effective altruism, or EA ... (1:27); * FTX was undone by its special treatment of Alameda. If it wasn't for that, "Sam would still be on the news all the time" today (10:54); * Bankman-Fried's apparent misreading of crypto cycles led to ill-timed bets after Bitcoin hit an all-time high in November 2021 (14:26); * In one of SBF's last conversations with the author, SBF claims he is unlikely to get a fair trial due to being proverbially hung already in the courts of opinion (17:59); * Where does SBF rank among other financial market fraudsters? Perhaps Long Term Capital Management is the closest comparison... (23:52); * Background on the guest, including what got him to write the book on SBF (34:03); * Cryptos should eventually become a normal part of the economy. In many ways the story of SBF vindicates this (38:26); * The world only really needs three blockchains: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin (44:28); * Crypto regulation was supposed to have happened already, but it all seems to be talk (49:58).
More From Brady Dale * Purchase the book from Wiley or Amazon; * Twitter: @BradyDale; * Subscribe to his Axios newsletter.
This podcast episode brought to you by Covey — Covey is designed to find, reward, and train the next top investment managers —from any background—that anyone can copy, so everyone can win. To track a partial portfolio of Value Investing Substack, click here.
Aaron Pek of Value Investing Substack joins the podcast to discuss his bullish outlook on three individual stocks and more generally the investment case for Malaysia.
Content Highlights * First idea: Intel (INTC) and why it can compete with Samsung (SSNLF) and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) (2:33); * Some additional background on Intel and its business case (4:49); * Bears say INTC has years until it can catch up to TSMC, but Intel has the necessary machinery to bridge the gap sooner (10:10); * Second idea: Occidental Petroleum (OXY), a unique oil play beloved by Warren Buffett (15:23); * Background on the guest (23:57); * Third idea: Hibiscus Petroleum (HIPEF), whose management team the guest views as the Warren Buffett management team of southeast Asian oil and gas (28:13); * The case for Malaysia: a view from the ground (32:29); * There is an ETF, iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF (EWM) which tracks Malaysian stocks. Discussion of Malaysia's geopolitical place between China and the US (34:39); * China's lost decade (44:11).
Not investment advice! Do your own research, make your own decisions.More on the Guest * Substack: ValueInvesting.Substack.com; * Twitter: @ValueInvestingZ;.
This podcast episode was recorded on Thursday, April 6, with an actionable highlights clip previewing the following day's non-farm payrolls released to premium subscribers that same day. The full podcast episode was then released to premium subscribers a day later. To get early access to podcast recordings and take advantage of a host of other exclusive benefits, sign up to become a premium member at our Substack or Supercast.
Mike Singleton of Invictus Research rejoins the podcast to discuss his pessimistic outlook for the economy, why he's concerned about credit risk, and why the Federal Reserve should end up cutting rates before too long.
Content Highlights * The outlook for risk assets is still not constructive (2:40); * Fed rate hikes are very close to a peak, if not there already (4:43); * Economic conditions point to stubborn inflation (7:09); * Inflation may not need to return to the Fed's 2% target for there to be rate cuts (11:00); * The outlook for commodities prices is not particularly constructive either (15:59); * What to make of the banks? (21:14); * One leading economic indicator that Invictus likes, which is overlooked (or ignored) by the market at large (22:30); * The backdrop is still positive for short-term bonds (24:28); * Leading indicators for the yield curve include bank lending standards, which right now suggest a steepening... (26:13);
More about the Guest * Twitter: @InvictusMacro; * Website: Invictus-Research.com.
Not investment advice.
This podcast episode was recorded on Thursday, March 23 and released to premium subscribers the following day. To get early access to podcast recordings and take advantage of a host of other exclusive benefits, sign up to become a premium member at our Substack or Supercast.
Kevin Philip of Bel Air Investment Advisors joins the podcast to discuss why he's still bullish about technology despite seismic changes in that industry, his less enthusiastic take on cryptocurrencies, and other issues he's watching -- be they in the banking sector or geopolitically.
Content Highlights
- Tech is not dreck, nor is it dead. Technological advances are at the heart of US economic growth. Demand for digital goods may have gotten ahead of its skis during Covid. It will return (1:40);
- Chances for an interest cut by year-end have increased with the bank failures (4:30);
- The employment situation is changing in the technology industry as it comes to terms with delicate circumstances around business models and the concept of value in general (6:01);
- The bank failures may create opportunities for venture capital in two areas: secondary funds and a new vintage of funds that should generate outsize returns in the future (9:20);
- Tech stocks have been beaten down, but lower interest rates can sustain earnings multiples. There are risks, however... (11:23);
- Some of the threats and opportunities wrought by Chat GPT and AI (14:11);
- When it comes to cryptocurrencies, the guest is not a major fan -- and this was recorded before Binance (18:52);
- Silicon Valley Bank was poorly managed and had a bad business model. It deserved to fail (21:52);
- As for Credit Suisse, the Swiss bank appears to have been undone by a crisis of confidence (23:44);
- Background on the guest (27:50);
- Bel Air's clientele is mostly about wealth protection rather than growth. What are some tried and true methods for accomplishing this? (32:25);
- China discussion and why there's no need to invest internationally (34:48);
- Through it all, there are reasons for optimism (43:31).
Not investment advice.
For more information on the guest, visit the Bel Air Investment Advisors website.
This episode was recorded in two parts, with a special segment added on March 14 to address the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank of New York. Premium subscribers gained access to this added segment the same day it was recorded. Here it has been merged into the same file to create a single episode. To get early access to podcast recordings and take advantage of a host of other exclusive benefits, sign up to become a premium member at our Substack or Supercast.
Jake Schurmeier of Harbor Capital Management joins the podcast to discuss his experience at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which overlapped with a full monetary policy cycle, and what this may tell us about future Fed policy -- especially in light of the events surrounding Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank of New York.
Content Highlights * The guest spent several years at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's open markets trading desk, where he was responsible for implementing monetary policy and monitoring the treasury market (3:41); * In this role he experienced the whole life cycle of quantitative tightening to quantitative easing, concluding with the liquidity injections that accompanied the Covid pandemic (5:13); * Chances are "pretty high" that the Fed reins in quantitative tightening, or QT, in light of the events around Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) and Signature Bank of New York (SBNY). A lot of it depends on the uptake of the Bank Term Financing Program, or BTFP, the new lending facility (6:49); * Can these measures save the business model of regional banks? (10:26); * The possibility of moral hazard introduced by regulators (12:57); * Where does this leave interest rate policy? Fifty basis points is probably off the table, but a 25bps raise is certainly in the offing... (14:10) * In general, what kinds of catalysts will the Fed be looking for to shift from QT to QE? (16:20); * Was there ever any talk of negative interest rates? Did the Fed ever have discussions about buying stocks (21:00); * Background on the guest (25:33); * The Fed's purchases of mortgage-backed securities was in retrospect unnecessary on the scale and duration with which it happened during Covid (28:24); * For a quasi-government organization, the Fed acts quite quickly. Faster than corporations. A look inside the Fed's decision-making process (32:05); * Yes, Fed officials and employees are required to disclose their stock transactions (37:29).
Not investment advice. For more information on the guest, visit HarborCapital.com.
This podcast episode brought to you by Covey — Covey is designed to find, reward, and train the next top investment managers —from any background—that anyone can copy, so everyone can win.
Mark Szemeszki joins the podcast to discuss his highly profitable short crypto trades from last year and why his business cycle theory has him sitting in cash.
Content Highlights * Three-hundred-and-eighty percent (380%) returns last year. How did he do it? (2:47); * The macro view and leading indicators are pointing to a recession right now, which makes risk-taking more problematic in the short term (4:17); * His short crypto trades predate the FTX saga (7:33); * More on his business cycle theory (10:32); * Inflationary pressure is real, including from China's reopening (13:37); * More information on catalysts sought when shorting altcoins (16:17); * Shorting the narrative on altcoins is a good strategy if you can get a good entry point (20:20); * Background on the guest (25:08); * More on his trades last year (27:13); * Probably 99% of crytpo currencies are useless, even Bitcoin and Ethereum (29:37).
More Information on the Guest * Twitter: @MSzemeszki; * Covey portfolio.
A short clip of actionable highlights from this podcast episode was distributed to premium subscribers on Feb. 9 — almost one week ago at the time of this writing. The full podcast episode followed a day after that. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of this and a host of other benefits (and avoid annoying ads and announcements), visit our Supercast or Substack and sign up!
Callie Cox of eToro joins the podcast to discuss her view that the Federal Reserve can engineer a 'soft landing' -- defeating inflation while not tipping the US economy into a recession.
Content Highlights * It's hard to see how the Fed will be able to combat inflation without breaking things in the economy, but this is the guest's view (3:00); * This view is partly based on the job market (4:06); * Inflation is the major risk to the 'soft landing' thesis. But there are encouraging signs (6:00); * Still, there is a chance investors are underestimating the chances of higher interest rates from the Fed (8:08); * Ultimately, investors are discounting the global economy's strength (9:21); * Technology has been harder hit than other sectors of the economy, which may bring second-order effects especially locally. But nationally, initial jobless claims are still low (13:57); * The US consumer has been a particular strong point. No reason for that to stop (15:53); * Background on the guest (20:12); * Views on cryptocurrency (24:48); * The concept of decentralized finance, or DeFi: not just a fool's errand (26:43); * Does the VIX still matter? Maybe, but there are better options to gauge volatility (31:14).
More on Callie Cox * Website: eToro.com; * Corporate Twitter: @eToroUS; * Personal Twitter: @CallieAbost.
Not investment advice.
A short clip of actionable highlights from this podcast episode was distributed to premium subscribers on Feb. 9 -- almost one week ago at the time of this writing. The full podcast episode followed a day after that. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of this and a host of other benefits (and avoid annoying ads and announcements), visit our Supercast or Substack and sign up!
Robert Cote, principal at Cote Capital Management, joins the podcast to discuss his model of technology investing, how it's different than venture capital, and which areas of new technology that he is most excited about.
Content Highlights * The last 20 years have seen venture capital focus on software companies, almost to the exclusion of anything else. Therein lies the opportunity (1:09); * Hardware has been overlooked and can become the focus of technology investors again. One example is manufacturing (6:39); * Use of nanocarbon has created one specific advancement in the area of solar technology (8:50); * Unfortunately, this technology is not investable through public markets (12:22); * Another example: textiles, specifically textile recycling (17:08); * Background on the guest and his investment process (22:56); * There is transportation-related innovation as well. No, not self-driving cars (36:31); * Something from the realm of augmented reality: X-ray technology for surgery (38:57): * Finally, what about crypto currencies? (43:18).
More on Robert Cote * Website: CoteCapital.com; * Twitter: @CoteCapital; * YouTube: @CoteCapital9399.
Joseph Politano of Apricitas Economics joins the podcast to discuss his views on the various discrepancies in the global economy -- and how the whole thing may play out.
Content Highlights * US home prices could be due for more declines, based on how housing starts and interest rates have been trending (2:15); * How much of the strength of the labor market is due to interest rate hikes not having taken full effect yet? (4:09); * Expecting a 'mild recession' may be as naive as anticipating a 'soft landing' (8:44); * Traditional leading indicators are out of synch, with manufacturing employment dropping precipitously but the services sector going from strength to strength (13:30); * The Fed may have already overdone it with interest rate hikes (14:57); * The 'best case' scenario may be akin to what happened in 1995-96 (18:15); * Background on the guest (22:23); * What to (possibly) expect from Fed policy the rest of 2023 (27:29); * Watch Japan's monetary policy as well (34:17); * What about cryptocurrencies as a systemic risk? (39:08);
More on Joseph Politano * Website: Apricitas.io; * Twitter: @JosephPolitano.
This podcast episode was recorded Jan. 18, 2023, with a short clip of actionable highlights distributed to premium subscribers the following day. The full podcast episode followed a day after that. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of this and a host of other benefits, visit our Supercast or Substack and sign up!
Mike Edwards, deputy chief investment officer at Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers, joins the podcast to discuss China's post-Covid reopening and why its impact on global markets is not being fully priced in by investors.
Content Highlights * China's abrupt U-turn over 'Zero Covid' is unquestionably one of the biggest changes to take effect in the global economy over the last few months (2:23); * There have been reservations about this reopening, but it is happening with authoritative force and will have a major positive impact (5:08); * What about the US de-coupling from China and the embattled real estate sector? (11:00) * Where this will be felt most is in markets that have exposure to the Chinese consumer. It also points to Europe and emerging markets outperforming the US (17:54); * Chinese consumers were far more restrained than their US counterparts during Covid and have been slower to return -- especially tourists. This is not just a one-off in terms of the resurgence of Chinese travel and services (24:20); * What to make of the latest economic developments in the US, especially with the consumer? (27:31); * Weiss's house view is that the US will avoid recession this year (34:02); * Background on the guest (37:49); * China can re-emerge without the US as a major partner (51:36); * After some consolidation, the US economic and market cycle is marked by investors seeking to put money to work -- slowly (57:18).
More on Mike Edwards * Website: GWeiss.com; * Twitter: @MEdwards_Weiss.
Not investment advice.
This podcast episode brought to you by Covey — Covey is designed to find, reward, and train the next top investment managers —from any background—that anyone can copy, so everyone can win.
Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics rejoins the podcast to discuss his surprisingly sanguine view of the economy in 2023: Why cyclical stocks should outperform the technology and defensive sectors, and why he's expecting inflation to drop to 3.5% by the second half of the year.
Content Highlights * Inflationary recessions are different from deflationary ones. The last four were the latter. If there is a recession this year, it will be the former (02:18); * Earnings downside is limited in this scenario, by 5% based on what happened in similar situations in the past, and earnings should actually go up (5:56); * Tech margins should continue to be under pressure but economically-sensitive cyclical stocks should see margin expansion (10:50); * The US labor market has actually started to weaken considerably -- and not due to Fed policy (12:18); * There have been some big adjustments in the labor market post-pandemic (16:47); * The 'wealth destruction effect' from tech stocks selling off is negligible (27:35); * One point of concern: the deficit. This is where the implosion in wealth could affect things (32:59); * The coming budget battle in Congress is worth paying attention to (34:41); * The 'higher for longer' Fed interest rate hike thesis has gained traction. What this means for stocks (43:27); * Inflation: Expect 3.5% CPI by mid-year (47:37).
More Information on the Guest * Substack: Ironsides Macroeconomics; * Twitter: @BarryKnapp.
Not intended as investment advice.
Alex Chausovsky, vice president of analytics and consulting at Miller Resource Group, rejoins the podcast to discuss his surprisingly upbeat economic outlook for 2023, driven by a healthy labor market in the US.
Content Highlights * There may be a recession in 2023 but the US labor market should hold up just fine (3:03); * The guest's assessment is due to first-hand knowledge as his employer is a recruiting firm. None of their clients are slowing hiring (5:37); * The trend is due in part to re-shoring of high-end manufacturing to the US, but also to non-US companies seeking to establish manufacturing centers stateside (7:46); * The Federal Reserve has been hiking rates aggressively and plans to continue this policy (albeit less aggressively) in 2023, but most of the damage may be done already (9:12) * With inflation abating there will be less impetus for the Fed to "truly break things" in 2023 (13:05); * Supply chain issues have mostly been resolved, with auto production and semiconductors especially benefiting. Further easing can be expected on the labor side (14:44); * One sector of the economy that is clearly poised to benefit: automation (16:56); * Background on the guest (22:56); * Housing has already contracted but this should turn around by the end of 2023 or early 2024 (31:32); * The outcome he's expecting in his native Ukraine (37:35).
More Information on the Guest * Website: MillerResource.com; * LinkedIn: AlexChausovsky; * Twitter: @AChausovsky (not very active).
This podcast episode brought to you by Covey — Covey is designed to find, reward, and train the next top investment managers —from any background—that anyone can copy, so everyone can win.
Kyrill Asatur, co-founder and CEO of Centerfin, joins the podcast to discuss his view on asset allocation going into 2023: why he is bullish on hard assets like energy and bearish on fixed income -- and why the inflationary environment is likely going to stick around.
Content Highlights * How Centerfin was set up coming into this year and what went into its contrarian decision to avoid fixed income (4:06); * Current views on the market after a tough year (5:25); * Centerfin's take is to be long hard assets, including commodities and commodity-linked equities while continuing to avoid fixed income like bonds (7:44); * The environment is different now. There has been a regime change since 2017. Inflation can't just be exported anymore (9:48); * There will likely be a recession. Once we emerge from it, leading industries will probably be different than they were in past recoveries (11:18); * Why Centerfin is bullish energy and how they are playing it (12:55); * Their chosen ETF to get exposure to clean energy (14:48); * There is no need to buy international (ex-US) energy stocks (16:36); * Short discussion on the concept of introducing different prices for different uses of energy (18:48); * Re-shoring from China with Apple (AAPL) moving all its production out of the country and how to potentially play that trend (20:46); * Background on the guest and what got him to start Centerfin (25:53); * Distressed investing remains out of reach for most investors but Centerfin is considering ways to change that... (30:52); * The bullish case for copper (39:13); * How best to gain exposure to uranium (40:00).
More on Kyrill Asatur and Centerfin * Website: Centerfin.co; * Twitter: @WallStHobbes; * LinkedIn page; * Facebook: CenterfinHQ; * Instagram: @CenterfinHQ.
This podcast is for informational purposes only. Nothing here is intended as investment advice. Do your own research, make your own decisions.
This podcast episode brought to you by Covey — Covey is designed to find, reward, and train the next top investment managers —from any background—that anyone can copy, so everyone can win.
Michael Pisani, aka Options Mike, joins the podcast to discuss why he's anticipating a year-end rally in stocks.
Content Highlights * It's been a tough year for stocks and risk assets. That may be about to change (2:10); * Jerome Powell and the Fed have twice this year fooled markets into anticipating a pivot. But something has changed and the FOMC is no longer unanimous with its hawkishness (4:04); * There is still a lot of cash still on the sidelines (6:46); * Specific areas of the market Pisani likes here. And specific stocks, primarily Ford (F) and to a lesser extent General Motors (GM), both as longterm plays (11:42); * Another stock he's bullish on: Snowflake (SNOW) and several that are candidates to go to zero (12:33); * An easy contrarian play: ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK). Yes, really (15:46); * Pisani's take on cryptos (18:31); * Background on the guest (23:44).
More on Options Mike * Website: SmartOptionTrading.com; * Twitter: @OptionsMike.
Not intended as investment advice.
Premium subscribers received this episode several days early -- and without ads or announcements -- as they do all podcast episodes. Sign up on Supercast or Substack. You can also take our listener survey to receive a free month of access.
Jeremy Cordon joins the podcast to discuss his Goldback creation. These gold-imbued currency notes are worth upwards of 1/1000 a troy ounce and are already circulating (and being used) for point-of-sale transactions.
Content Highlights * Goldbacks seek to solve one of the challenges of using gold as a currency of exchange: the lack of small denominations that can be used in point-of-sale transactions (2:57); * A single goldback is worth 1/1000 of a troy ounce of gold, or about $4 at current rates. The notes are imbued with physical gold through a microtechnology process and serialized (5:06); * Goldbacks trade at a premium to physical gold because of the engineering and artistic labor that goes into their production -- and demand, as supply has historically been limited (8:54) * Goldbacks as a disaster hedge (12:48); * Background on the guest and how he came to create goldbacks (16:57); * The limitations of cryptocurrencies when it comes to creating a gold-backed currency, through the guest's own experience (21:35); * The legality of creating gold-backed currency (24:12); * Between $8 million and $12 million-worth of goldbacks are currently in circulation, but goldback.com is a wholesaler (26:48); * The guest's investing strategy and the concept of gold-backed leases as a way to profit from the goldback trend (30:57).
More on Jeremy Cordon * Website: Goldback.com; * LinkedIn page; * YouTube channel; * Instagram: @Goldback.
Disclaimer: The host does not own goldbacks, holds no particular view on goldbacks, and does not benefit from the sale of goldbacks.
A ‘highlight clip‘ of actionable items from this podcast was released to premium subscribers on Nov. 7, the same day it was recorded. Become a premium subscriber by signing up here or on our Substack to take advantage of this and a host of other benefits. Don't want to pay? Take our readership survey and get a month free.
Bob Elliott, chief investment officer of Unlimited Funds, joins the podcast to discuss his views on the Federal Reserve, inflation, the midterm elections, and why stocks have entered a long 'slog' for the foreseeable future.
Content Highlights * Investors have been conditioned for recessions to feature a fast decline in equity markets followed by a rapid recovery. This time around those dynamics are different (3:44); * There is no chance of a 'Fed pivot' coming anytime soon (7:58); * What about infighting at the Fed and within the FOMC? (11:03); * Yes, you need unemployment to increase for there to be any progress with inflation. Higher prices are no longer due to supply chain issues (13:57); * The Fed will raise either 50bps or 75bps at its next meeting and rates could easily go up to 6% (21:22); * Background on the guest and his ETF, the Unlimited HFND Multi Strategy Return Tracker ETF. Stock ticker: HFND (26:19); * The growing disconnect between hedge fund positioning and retail investors: Hedge funds are short bonds, long commodities, bullish gold, and are sitting on a bunch of cash... (36:21); * The Fed's target rate for inflation is 2%, but that could change. That would bring a myriad of issues... (38:24); * It's hard to get bullish about longterm bonds: right now and for the foreseeable future (40:54); * Investors continue to look for reasons that the economy is slowing and the Fed needs to reverse course. There is virtually no evidence of this happening (42:44); * The midterm elections are likely to lead to a split government. This brings tail risks that few people are talking about (44:50).
More Information on Bob Elliott * Website: UnlimitedFunds.com; * Twitter: @BobEUnlimited;
A ‘highlight clip‘ of actionable items from this podcast was released to premium subscribers on Oct. 24, with the full episode released the following day -- without ads or announcements. Become a premium subscriber by signing up here or on our Substack to take advantage of this and a host of other benefits.
Jason Shapiro joins the podcast to discuss his trading strategy, based on the simple premise that most investors are wrong most of the time. This approach requires trades to be crowded, which is decidedly (and surprisingly) not the case right now -- with two possible exceptions.
Content Highlights
- Most traders lose money. Shapiro seeks to capture these losses by going against the crowd (3:11);
- He does this by monitoring the Commitment of Traders report for extreme positioning, which he then fades (4:03);
- The thinking behind this? The crowd is wrong. "It's really that simple." The discounting method is not price but positioning (6:11);
- Shapiro monitors 37 different futures markets. Two examples of where this approach worked in the past (7:03);
- Right now "I'm seeing some pretty scary stuff, because you don't have anybody crowded" in major asset classes (8:24);
- One possible exception: lumber (11:08);
- Background on the guest (16:35);
- Patience is a virtue, especially for contrarians (27:28);
- "I have contrarian views on everything...that's how I develop my opinion." People are wrong because they want others to guide them (31:00);
- The set-up in cryptos is "massively dangerous" based on positioning in Bitcoin futures. This sets Bitcoin and cryptos up for a major drop... (36:36).
(On this last point, Shapiro shared the following chart)
For More About Jason Shapiro
- Website: CrowdedMarketReport.com;
- Twitter: @Crowded_Mkt_Rpt;
- LinkedIn: CMR-Publishing.
A ‘highlight clip‘ of actionable items from this podcast was released to premium subscribers on Oct. 17 -- one business day after it was recorded. Become a premium subscriber by signing up here or on our Substack to take advantage of this and a host of other benefits.
Kris Sidial of The Ambrus Group joins the podcast to discuss tail-risk hedging: how it works, why it's important, and how investors can still take advantage of volatility mispricings to protect themselves against further downside -- at least in stocks.
Content Highlights * What is tail risk hedging? (3:19); * Traditional hedges haven't worked, starting with the 60:40 approach. How might investors hedge stock and bond exposure? (6:15); * There are numerous options for investors to protect against downturns. But it's not always as easy as buying put contracts on indexes (8:24); * Variance swaps, one way to compound returns on movements in volatility (10:25); * Thoughts on UK pensions and what might have caused issues in that segment of the market (15:27); * What investors are doing in this environment in terms of tail-risk hedging -- there are still opportunities to hedge (20:02); * Background on the guest (30:08); * Discussion of systemic risk as a result of the layers of options trades and counterparties: "There is a systemic hazard taking place right now in the derivatives market" (39:32); * Speaking of risk, what about the regulatory environment? Are regulators asleep at the switch? Reasons to believe Dodd-Frank is perhaps not as effective as people think.. (43:37) * Thoughts on cryptocurrencies (50:01).
More About Kris Sidial * Website: Ambrus.Capital; * Twitter: @KSidiii;; * White paper mentioned in the episode.
A 'highlight clip' of actionable items from this podcast was released to premium subscribers on Oct. 10. Become a premium subscriber by signing up here or on our Substack to take advantage of this and a host of other benefits.
Fabian Wintersberger joins the podcast to discuss his views on the economy, inflation, and Fed policy.
Content Highlights * The Fed will not succeed at bringing inflation down to 2%. There will be no soft-landing for the economy (2:48); * Interest rate hikes will proceed until something breaks in the real economy, forcing the Fed to reverse course (5:04); * Bond yields: We haven't seen the highs yet (8:16); * Background on the guest (14:10); * The situation in Europe. Central banks have no choice but to follow the Fed higher (16:38); * The situation in Wintersberger's native Austria, which faces an unprecedented winter with dramatically higher energy costs (18:55); * Austria has historical ties to Russia, including in its banking sector, where one institution still has business in the country... (23:27).
More on the Guest * Twitter: @f_wintersberger; * Substack: The Weekly Wintersberger.
This podcast episode brought to you by Covey -- Covey is designed to find, reward, and train the next top investment managers —from any background—that anyone can copy, so everyone can win.
Todd Sullivan of ValuePlays.com rejoins the podcast to discuss oil markets and the investment case for cannabis.
Sullivan's call for $100 oil last year turned out to be prescient. Oil prices have retreated from their peak, but that will be short-lived, he says...
(This episode was recorded Sept. 22, before the recent rebound in oil prices. Premium subscribers get an early actionable highlight clip of the podcast along with earlier release of the full episode -- and a host of other benefits. More on our Substack or Supercast.)
Content Highlights * Fears of 'demand destruction' have led to the decline in oil prices, but risks are tilted toward prices moving higher again. Production is not coming back (3:48); * How much of a concern is a slowing Chinese economy when it comes to oil prices? (10:14); * What about stocks? Sullivan continues to like pipeline companies... (16:00); * The investment case for cannabis: Overview (27:03); * The only thing that will unleash capital on the cannabis industry is decriminalization (31:46); * What to look for if you are looking to buy and hold cannabis stocks and two of the guest's favorites (34:30).
More About Todd Sullivan * Website: ValuePlays.com; * Twitter: @ToddSullivan; * Covey portfolio.
Premium subscribers received an eight-minute clip containing the most actionable highlights from this episode on Sept. 26. This is just one of many benefits of premium membership. For more visit our Substack or Supercast.
Jordi Visser, president and chief investment officer at Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers, joins the podcast to discuss his reasons for optimism during this trying time for global financial markets.
Content Highlights * The environment is constructive for risk assets (2:26); * Focus has moved from inflation. Investors are too negative (3:50); * The Fed is raising interest rates. Inflation is coming down -- a lot faster than people think (4:41); * What sectors and why? (9:53); * No, you don't need unemployment to increase for inflation to come down (13:22); * The bullish case for biotech (15:12); * The blockchain will have profound impact on labor markets (19:42); * Background on the guest (25:13); * Clean energy and how that fits in (29:14); * Oil should move higher, but watch out for global trade (36:47); * Web 3.0 and cryptocurrencies: here too there are reasons to be bullish (39:48); * Beta has started to outperform profitability. A final reason to be optimistic (51:45).
More About Jodi Visser * Website: GWeiss.com; * Twitter: @JVisser_Weiss; * Video on inflation after the CPI print; * Weekly podcast: In Search of Green Marbles.
This podcast episode was recorded on Sept. 16, with a short highlight clip containing the most actionable items released to premium subscribers that same day. The full episode was released to premium subscribers without ads or interruptions a day after recording.
Axel Merk, president and chief investment officer at Merk Investments, joins the podcast to discuss his views on stagflation, the Federal Reserve, U.S. dollar, and why the bottom is not yet in for stocks.
Content Highlights * Printing money does not fix supply issues. Next stop: Stagflation (2:59); * The current environment simply is not conducive to taking risks (11:15); * There's too much groupthink at the Fed and it's time for Jerome Powell to step down (13:21); * The bottom for stocks is not in yet. The Fed needs to pivot first. What to watch for there (15:26); * Background on the guest (24:43); * The outlook for gold (31:20); * How high might the Fed go with interest rates? (34:09).
More Information on Axel Merk * Website: MerkInvestments.com; * Twitter: @AxelMerk; * Merk Stagflation ETF and other funds: MerkFunds.com;
Not intended as investment advice.
This podcast episode was recorded on Sept. 12, with a short highlight clip containing the most actionable items released to premium subscribers that same day. The full episode was released to premium subscribers without ads or interruptions a day after recording.
To accommodate this new format, and our new production schedule featuring weekly podcasts, subscription prices are scheduled to increase. However, the old rate can be locked in for a limited time through this link (also mentioned in the intro).
Richard Excell, former prop trader and portfolio manager and currently a professor of finance at Gies College of Business, joined the podcast to discuss his outlook on the economy, inflation, Federal Reserve interest rate policy, and more.
Content Highlights * The outlook on inflation: 5% by December, but don't expect the Fed to ease off of rate hikes (7:14); * Can the Fed engineer a soft landing? It has succeeded just three of the last 14 times it hiked rates... (9:34); * We may not see a housing price decline on a national basis anytime soon (14:05); * Expect a 75 basis point rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on Sept. 20 -- and again at the subsequent meeting in November, even though the economy should not start to brake until next year (16:11); * Background on the guest (22:02); * Views on asset allocation: more constructive for bonds than equities at present (27:03); * A recession will happen. The good news: it may be mild... (32:30); * How much of a concern are global issues in Europe and China? (35:40).
More Information on the Guest * Website: GiesBusiness.Illinois.edu; * Substack: Stay Vigilant; * CommonStock: Stay Vigilant; * Twitter: @ExcellRichard,
This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers on Sept. 1, 2022 without ads or announcements. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits including the Daily Contrarian briefing, visit our Substack or Supercast. Prices start around $9/month.
Daniel Partlow, chief risk officer at Advent Capital Management, joins the podcast to discuss convertible bonds. Partlow is a specialist in these securities, having written a book on the subject titled 'Convertible Securities: A Complete Guide to Investment and Corporate Financing Strategies.'
Content Highlights * First, the basics: What are convertible bonds and how do they work? The asset class has actually been around for more than three centuries... (3:29); * Some of the characteristics of converts include a maturity of about four to five years but with low interest rate sensitivity of much shorter duration bonds (6:42); * A typical balanced convert will provide downside protection (via the bond floor) and upside potential through the equity participation (9:18); * Converts have done well in inflationary environments, with less volatility than stocks (11:44); * The default rate for converts is a fraction of high yield and leveraged loans (20:38); * Background on the guest (24:59); * The specter of stagflation and how converts can protect against that (27:50); * Where might there be particular opportunities in the converts market right now? (33:07); * Examples of individual securities that may be of interest (37:52).
More Background on the Guest * Website and link to the book mentioned in the introduction.
Additional Information
The following slides were supplied by Advent Capitaol Management.
This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers two days ago without ads or announcements. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits including the Daily Contrarian briefing, visit our Substack or Supercast. Prices start around $9/month.
Chris Hutchins joins the podcast to discuss his strategy for asset allocation, which leans heavily on passive investing and optimizing earnings power rather than picking stocks. In this (admittedly) unorthodox episode he discusses some of his methods.
Content Highlights * You probably can't beat the market. Instead of trying to optimize the portfolio, why not optimize how quickly money can be put to work? Or maximize income from employment (5:55); * Beating the market may be extremely difficult (if not impossible). but educating oneself is still invaluable along several lines that are discussed (8:07); * How does Hutchins' asset allocation break down exactly? (10:45); * The guest is also a venture capitalist. What areas of technology is he particularly excited about right now? (12:35); * What about the VC model itself? (21:30); * Background on the guest (30:00); * Not investing is as big a mistake as investing incorrectly. Some of the options (35:32); * How important is liquidity? (38:44); * What has the guest most worried right now? (42:06).
More Information on the Guest * Twitter: @Hutchins; * Website: WealthFront.com; * Podcast website: AllTheHacks.com (includes links to podcast),
This podcast episode was recorded on Aug. 3 and released to premium subscribers the following day. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits including the Daily Contrarian briefing, visit our Substack or Supercast. Prices start around $9/month.
Hugh Hendry is a man who needs no introduction to contrarians. Over the course of this 90-minute conversation, he provided many views on markets, the economy, the Federal Reserve, China, and a lot more. Of particular interest to investors are his bullish views on commodities, oil producers, and luxury goods makers...
Content Highlights * Hendry's most contrarian opinion right off the bat: The Fed is not responsible for the asset price bubble (2:40); * "We find ourselves in the fourth depression of the last 200 years" after "les miserables" period of 1830 to ~1855, 1870 to the late 1890s, and the 1930s (8:11); * "I don't think we have inflation." Sales of non-discretionary items are not increasing (13:53); * Very few people understand money and money creation. What are they missing? (28:56); * What's behind the stock market rally this summer? It may be commodities, at least in part... (39:49); * Markets are 'bucking broncos.' Volatility can be a major distraction and nothing happens in a straight line. But commodity producers and uranium should be in good shape over the long term (46:55); * Background on the guest. As an 'OG contrarian' Hendry joins an exclusive list (54:58); * A little insight into Hendry's current life and psychology (1:10:40); * Betting on the Chinese yuan weakening (1:14:37); * The odds of the 10-year treasury making new lows (1:22:44); * China invading Taiwan? Hendry sets the odds at 20% and says China will never have a stronger bargaining positioning vis-a-vis the U.S (1:24:16).
More Information on the Guest * Twitter: @Hendry_Hugh; * Substack: HughHendry; * Instagram: HughHendryOfficial; * YouTube: HughHendryOfficial; * The Acid Capitalist.
This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers on July 26. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits including the Daily Contrarian briefing, visit our Substack or Supercast. Prices start around $9/month. Free trials are available.
Louis O'Connor, CEO of Strategic Metals Invest, joins the podcast to make the case for rare earth metals. These commodities, hitherto unavailable to retail investors, are now accessible and entering the mainstream...
Content Highlights * Rare earth metals (sometimes called rare earth elements) are intrinsic to daily life. They are part of modern technology as diverse as electric cars, military applications, solar applications, nuclear reactors, and more (3:01); * China produces more than 80% of the world's rare earths and refines metals even mined in the U.S. (5:39); * Okay, so what are these rare metals exactly? There are 17 in all, though not all are exactly rare, or vital... (8:12); * Rare earths have outperformed almost all major asset classes the last five years (14:22); * The supply picture for rare earths is complicated, while demand is quite inelastic, depending on a diverse set of buyers... (18:58); * Rare earths are entering the mainstream and production is increasing in the U.S., where it is more expensive (23:01); * There is a specific rare earth where the investment opportunity is particularly compelling at present (31:58); * Tellurium, on the other hand, is one that is not deemed particularly advantageous at the moment (35:50).
About the Guest * Website: StrategicMetalsInvest.com; * Twitter: @MetalsInvest; * Facebook: StrategicMetalsInvest; * YouTube.
This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers on July 12. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits including the Daily Contrarian briefing, visit our Substack or Supercast. Prices start around $9/month. Free trials are available.
Salem Abraham of Abraham Trading Co. joins the podcast to discuss his bullish outlook for oil, predicated on supply issues and under-investment.
Content Highlights * The shift to renewable energy is real, even in the Texas panhandle. But the transition is still in the very early stages. Oil and gas are still needed -- so are investments in infrastructure (4:13); * Worldwide drilling has yet to recover to pre-Covid levels. This will lead to $200/barrel oil and $10 gasoline prices (7:07); * "I think we end up with stagflation," but even that will not solve the supply issues (8:50); * Natural gas "is still a great investment" (14:14); * The benefits of green hydrogen (16:31); * There are more pipelines than popularly believed in the U.S. and they are actually more precarious than transmission lines (19:52); * Background on the guest (29:36); * Liquid alternatives and the need for better diversification (31:37); * The Federal Reserve has to regain credibility after the 'transitory' talk. The Fed will blink, eventually... (36:02); * Unrelated: Notre Dame will not join the Big 10 for football, says the alumnus (39:49).
More Information on the Guest * Twitter: @SalemAbraham; * Website: AbrahamTrading.com.
This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers ton July 5 -- the same day it was recorded. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits including the Daily Contrarian briefing, visit our Substack or Supercast. Prices start around $10/month. Free trials are available.
Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannock Burn Global FX, joins the podcast to discuss the precarious state of markets and what he is expecting from upcoming releases of key economic data. He also provides a pair of investment ideas for these times, with the understanding that nothing here is to be taken as investment advice.
Content Highlights * The coming week brings a number of crucial economic data around employment and inflation. What to expect (2:50); * "I don't think we're in a recession yet. But I think it's going to be hard to avoid one." Cracks are appearing and these warrant attention (3:51); * Weekly jobless claims (up Thursday) can be a leading indicator of recessions (5:30); * Non-farm payrolls are up on Friday. What to expect (11:34); * Core inflation is actually receding from highs, but the Fed can't (and more importantly won't) declare victory over inflation quite yet (14:42); * Recent days have seen a shift in market sentiment, to where a rate cut is starting to be priced in (17:43); * What is an investor to do here? The guest has two ideas, at opposite ends of the risk spectrum (25:23);
More on the Guest * Website: MarcToMarket.com; * Twitter: @MarcMakingSense.
This episode is brought to you by StockMarketHats.com — claiming to be stylish and funny. To avoid ads, consider becoming a premium subscriber.
Deer Point Macro joins the podcast to discuss his view that the U.S. Federal Reserve will only hike interest rates once more before easing.
Content Highlights * The Fed is not some magical organization that can control all parts of monetary economics (2:50); * The Fed can create demand for credit, but banks have to provide supply. And banks are pushing back (5:03); * What to make of the Fed's rate hikes this year? How has that affected bank portfolios? (9:37); * The eurodollar market plays a significant role in Fed policy and its implications. An explanation (13:24); * The Fed stands to raise once more, at its next meeting in July, before having to cut rates in September (16:21); * Inflation is stubbornly persistent. Doesn't this force the Fed to raise rates? (19:57); * Background on the guest (30:14); * Markets don't really react to ADP employment data, but for economic detective work it can be vitally important (31:48); * How this all translates to asset prices: good for bonds but commercial banks are maybe not as safe as some would think. But regional banks may be a better bet (35:11); * What about cryptocurrencies? (36:34); * Quick discourse on the so-called 'Fisher effect' that posits that inflation rises as Fed funds increase -- over the long term (39:14).
More on the Guest * Substack: DeerPointMacro.substack.com; * Twitter: @DeerPointMacro; * CommonStock: DeerPointMacro.
This episode is brought to you by StockMarketHats.com -- claiming to be stylish and funny. To avoid ads, consider becoming a premium subscriber. Kevin Rendino of 180 Degree Capital joins the podcast to discuss reasons for optimism (yes, optimism) in markets and why we may have already reached "peak pain."
Content Highlights * Valuations for most of the market are already discounting bad news across the board. Cash balances are at peak levels seen at the start of the pandemic, in 2008, and 2001 (2:44); * What segments of the market are particularly interesting right now? Look to semiconductors for starters (4:54); * How big of a concern is Fed policy? (7:20); * Media companies will benefit as the economy resumes its growth and advertising budgets revamp. There are indications this cycle is already turning (13:49); * What is 180 Capital's investing style and how does it work? (16:25); * Background on the guest (25:17); * The guest meets with company management often. What are some 'red flags' and 'green flags' he looks for? (31:38); * The 'great resignation' and which companies may be a great 'pedigree' for future executives (38:18); * Some parting guidance and why today's market feels more like 1990 than 2008 (43:17).
More Information on the Guest * Website: 180DegreeCapital.com; * Twitter: @180DegreeCap; * "Reasons for Hope" article;
Stocks Mentioned on this Podcast * 180 Degree Capital (TURN) -- the guest's publicly-traded fund; * Lantronix (LTRX); * Quantum (QMCO); * Arena Group (AREN); * Potbelly (PBPB).
Not intended as investment advice.
This episode was recorded on May 26, 2022 and released to premium subscribers -- without ads or announcements -- that same day. There are a host of other benefits to becoming a premium subscribers, including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast released each market day morning by 0700 ET. To become a premium subscriber, sign up here or through our substack.
Ayesha Tariq of Keystone Consulting joins the Contrarian Investor Podcast to discuss her bearish views on the global economy and on stock markets, what investment options she prefers right now, and why work-from-home will not persist (or at least not at current levels).
Content Highlights * The idea of a 'Fed pivot' away from higher rates is baseless. The Fed has no choice but to raise rates (3:01); * What about inflation having peaked? Won't that remove some pressure from the Fed? (8:35); * Unemployment is due to rise, with companies soon having no choice but to lay off workers -- but this won't stop the Fed either (11:28); * Markets had a good week. Did we have the bottom already? (13:57); * What about commodities? A potential bright spot due to structural issues? (15:32); * Background on the guest (21:06); * What are some of the best options for investors in light of all this? (23:19); * Real estate investment trusts are one good option, especially commercial real estate. Work-from-home was a phase that will be scaled back soon (26:25);
More Information on the Guest * Website: AyeshaTariq.Substack.com; * Twitter: @AyeshaTariq; * CommonStock: AyeshaTariq.
Not intended as investment advice.
This podcast episode was recorded on May 11, 2022 and made available to premium subscribers that same day (without ads or announcements, either!) To become a premium subscriber, go here or visit our Substack. Brooker Belcourt, CEO of Covey, joins the podcast to discuss his analyst platform and its ‘alpha algorithm’ that has been able to produce outperformance through its stock and ETF picks and crypto calls.
Content Highlights * Covey’s contrarian thesis: Retail analysts are every bit as good, if not better, than institutional analysts (4:10); * The idea of a platform to aggregate analyst opinion is not new. But very recent history has proven Covey correct: its analysts predicted the drop in cryptocurrencies and rise in value stocks over that have transpired over the last week (5:53); * The ‘alpha algorithm’ and how that works (6:58); * What is Covey’s algorithm picking up right now? (11:03); * Some highlights: Long commodities, fertilizer stocks like Mosaic (MOS), financials, energy stocks, and a few beaten-up tech names like Facebook/Meta (FB) and Alibaba (BABA). Short cryptos has been taken off (14:46); * Isn't Covey just chasing past performance hoping for future results? (17:20) * Great investors appear to have staying power, regardless of environment (23:27); * Background on the guest and how he came to start Covey (28:11); * Deeper discussion on how Covey's top analysts are positioning their portfolios right now (36:39);
For More Information * Website: Covey.io; * Twitter: @Covey_io;
This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers — without ads or announcements — on April 28, 2022. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits, go here or visit our Substack.
Mike Singleton of Invictus Research joins the podcast to discuss why the current sell-off is not a buying opportunity for stocks.
Content Highlights * Many contrarians currently believe sentiment is too bearish, meaning the market is due for a run for strong performance. Their conclusion is likely wrong (3:28); * Regardless of what investors say in surveys, the key question is whether they have money on the line -- and how much (5:50); * Right now retail exposure to stocks is at all-time-highs, while institutional investors have cash at low levels (7:27); * What about the economic fundamentals, which are mostly in good shape? (10:09); * The Fed actually has credibility when it comes to tightening interest rates -- and is not just 'jawboning' the market (12:58); * This is partly because the Fed does a lot more communicating than it has in the past (16:40); * Inflation has likely peaked and will start to slow, though not by enough to let the Fed ease rates (24:02); * Background on the guest and 'origin story' for Invictus Research (26:54); * What part of the business cycle are we in now? (33:23); * What does that mean for asset classes? (35:34); * ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) "has been a terrific place to look for shorts -- quick discussion of Cathie Wood and her predicament" (38:03); * Bonds will become an opportunity when the Fed 'breaks something' and there are indications that may be happening now (40:40);
More Information on the Guest: * Twitter: @InvictusMacro; * Website: Invictus-Research.com.
This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers -- without ads or announcements -- on April 19, 2022. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits, go here or visit our Substack. Edward Olanow, portfolio manager and director of investment solutions at Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers, joins the podcast to supply a surprisingly bullish outlook on the economy and on certain segments of the stock market.
Content Highlights * Reasons for optimism: Given the Fed and external shocks, GDP remains high and there is still a backlog of orders and millions of unfilled jobs (3:15); * The Fed's talk about 0.75% interest rate hikes is "just jawboning" (5:33); * The era of 'buy & hold' is over; investors need to be more nimble (8:25); * The house view at Weiss is that Nasdaq stocks will have a tougher time than other segments of the market (10:40); * The war in Ukraine: in all likelihood risks are localized at present, judging by gold and energy prices (14:25); * Background on the guest (18:40); * What are dispersion trades and how do they work? (20:34); * Why this may be a good time for this strategy -- and a 'turning point' for alternatives managers in general (26:27); * Where all this leaves fixed income and the bond market: Fixed-income is less forward-looking than people think... (29:55); * What Olanow and Weiss monitor for inflation (32:31);
For More Information: * LinkedIn; * Twitter: @WeissMultiStrat.
This podcast episode was made available to premium subscribers without ads or announcements on Monday, April 11, 2022. Don't be jealous of premium subscribers -- become one by signing up here. Free trials are available. Leo Schmidt of River Eddy Capital Management rejoins the podcast to discuss the coming credit crunch, its impact on stock market sectors, and where to invest to protect one's portfolio.
Content Highlights * So-called "unicorn" companies, or the darlings of the VC crowd, and others that cannot generate cashflow, will face a tough reckoning (3:17); * Undermining this is "a complete change of psychology" in terms of velocity of money (6:27); * What if the Fed reverses course? It's not so simple (8:52); * Oil is a short: "Oil is the ultimate liquid commodity" but there is a place for pipeline stocks... (11:38); * What stocks can thrive in this type of environment? Look first to medical company spin-offs (19:13); * Another area to look: Business development companies, or BDCs. This is a risky part of the market but there is at least one BDC making first-lien loans, which are the safest part of the capital structure... (26:23); * Quick epilogue on China's latest Covid lockdown. There are ways to play the move away from supply chain issues that result (35:58);
This podcast episode was recorded on April 4, 2022, and released to premium subscribers –without ads or announcements — that same day. Become a premium subscriber through our substack or supercast to take advantage of this and a host of other benefits, including the Daily Contrarian briefing each market day morning. Leigh Goehring, managing partner of Goehring & Rozencwajg, joins the podcast to discuss his view that most renewable energies are ineffective at reducing carbon output and pointless as investments.
Content Highlights * The consensus opinion is that renewable energy will solve many of the problems of CO2 production and energy needs. This is false (3:12); * The "terrible energy efficiency" associated with renewables will make the world poorer (5:00); * What is the problem with solar and wind and why are they so inefficient? (7:20); * It's no coincidence that the energy crisis started in Germany, which is now forced to import coal (12:20); * Vaclav Smil and the premise that there has never been a new technology with inferior energy efficiency that displaced the old technology (13:59); * The ulterior motives behind China's green energy push (18:33); * The "great hope" for a Moore's Law of wind mills and solar panels is a fallacy. Input prices have declined because energy prices have (21:05); * Where does that leave electric cars? (25:00); * Background on the guest (33:42); * What parts of the energy industry are better targets for investment right now? Look to uranium for starters, "the perfect solution to our problems" (37:17); * Copper is "the quintessential green metal" also facing a supply/demand imbalance. Also agricultural commodities, grains, fertilizers, nitrogen, and potash (41:26); * Mosaic (MOS) is one of the world's largest phosphate and potash producers, and a stock the guest is particularly bullish on -- it trades at just 5x earnings versus 25x at the peak (47:07); * An agricultural crisis could soon be upon us, leading to hoarding of supplies (49:58).
More Information About the Guest * Website: GoRozen.com; * Twitter: @GoRozen; * LinkedIn; * Link to Goehring & Rozencwajg video on the history of energy.
This podcast episode was recorded on Tuesday, March 22, 2022, and released to premium subscribers --without ads or announcements -- that same day. Become a premium subscriber through our substack or supercast to take advantage of this and a host of other benefits. Lukasz Tomicki of LRT Capital rejoins the podcast to argue his (highly contrarian) case that inflation is due to slow and to provide stock picks that allow investors to take advantage of current dislocations in markets.
Content Highlights * Inflation will peak around mid-year and return to historic norms shortly thereafter (2:43); * Russia's invasion of Ukraine and its impact on supply chains have certainly contributed to higher prices for commodities, but markets will adapt (7:01); * Another contrarian take: The Fed will successfully manage a soft landing (8:55); * "Russia is basically a gas station with nuclear weapons." The U.S. and Europe can deal without Russian imports so this shouldn't be a point of concern (14:20); * Stocks of two Brazilian companies that have been beaten down but have started to rebound... (20:05); * A company that has been directly impacted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine is an IT consulting firm with a large presence in Ukraine whose stock has predictably been beaten up but could offer huge returns (31:38); * The most likely outcome in Ukraine is for the military situation to grind to a stalemate (35:55); * A final idea: Buy the Polish stock market through the iShares MSCI Poland Capped ETF (EPOL) (39:50).
More Information on the Guest * Website: LRTcapital.com; * Twitter: @Tomicki.
Not intended as investment advice.
This episode is brought to you by StockMarketHats.com -- claiming to be stylish and funny. To avoid ads, consider becoming a premium subscriber.
Allen Bond, managing director and portfolio manager at Jensen Investment Management in Lake Oswego, Ore., joins the podcast to provide some stock picks for an increasingly uncertain -- and inflationary -- time in global financial markets.
Content Highlights * Investors have two major issues they're grappling with right now: Ukraine and inflation (5:51); * To protect against inflationary pressures, Jensen looks for businesses that have pricing power (11:11); * Mastercard (MA) and TJX (TJX) are two such stocks (13:29); * Background on the guest (19:36); * Three additional stock ideas, starting with ADP (ADP), another company that is difficult to displace (28:54); * Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR), the leading provider of proxy services (35:51); * Pfizer (PFE) has sold off since making Covid vaccine headlines last year, but continues to generate a ton of cash -- and put it to productive use (43:26).
More Information on the Guest * Website: JensenInvestment.com; * LinkedIn.
Not intended as investment advice.
Brent Kochuba of Spot Gamma joins the podcast to discuss his view that there will likely be an equities rally into the March 17 options expiration. This podcast was recorded Wednesday afternoon, March 9, 2022, and made available to premium subscribers that same day. Become a premium subscriber today by visiting Contrarian.Supercast.com or our Substack. There are many benefits beyond getting podcasts a few days (or more) early and not having to deal with annoying ads or announcements.
Content Highlights * Stocks have been selling off with the Nasdaq now officially in a bear market. But the guest is short-term bullish for reasons that can be traced to market makers hedging counterparty risk (2:39); * What about all the uncertainty with Russia-Ukraine? (5:57); * Stocks are up since the start of the Russian invasion on Feb. 24, likely because markets were hedged going in due to Fed tightening concerns (9:28); * What to make of the March 9 rally? A brief primer on gamma, vanna, and charm aka delta decay (11:02); * Similar gamma squeezes caused rallies in the past around options expiry (15:20); * Background on the guest (21:31); * The hedges investors have put on ahead of the FOMC meeting next week should lead to more risk-off. The lower bound for the S&P 500 is 4,100 (24:36); * Recent days have seen a change in options flow: Nvidia (NVDA) and crypto names such as Coinbase (COIN) have benefited along with Amazon (AMZN) and the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) (26:50); * Liquidity is important and recent months have seen some of it leave the system (30:06).
More Information on the Guest * Website: SpotGamma.com; * Twitter: @SpotGamma; * YouTube: SpotGamma;
Not intended as investment advice. Do your own research, make your own decisions!
This podcast episode was recorded on Feb. 25 and released to premium subscribers (without ads) the following day. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of this and a host of other benefits, visit Contrarian.Supercast.com or ContrarianPod.substack.com and sign up! Tobias Carlisle of Acquirers Funds rejoins the podcast to discuss the stock market's latest dramatic reversal, this time over Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and why investors may be a bit too bullish at present... Content Highlights * How to take the huge reversal last week with Russia-Ukraine? (3:11) * Every war starts with "the boys will be home by Christmas," but most tend to drag on longer than anticipated. Sometimes a lot longer... (5:13); * Growth stocks have been in correction territory for some time. Are they in a bear market? Probably... (8:52); * The interest rate cycle has not started tightening but inflation has the Fed caught between a rock and a hard place (15:53); * Energy and energy stocks are still cheap. Then there are defense contractors. Lockheed Martin (LMT) has benefited from Russia-Ukraine and Carlisle is a holder... (21:25); * Facebook aka Meta (FB) is also cheap (23:20); * Non-fungible tokens, or NFTs: Dead as Disco (30:12); * The aim of investing is to survive the bad times and they are "probably here" (37:18).
More From the Guest * Website: AcquirersFund.com; * Twitter: @Greenbackd; * Books: The Acquirer's Multiple and Deep Value via Amazon.
This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers on Feb. 9. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits, visit Contrarian.Supercast.com or ContrarianPod.substack.com and sign up! Herald van der Linde, head of Asia equity strategy for HSBC in Hong Kong, joins the podcast to discuss opportunities in emerging Asia.
Content Highlights * Emerging markets have under-performed developed markets, including in Asia -- but this is not an entirely fair comparison (3:09); * What of the premise that much of emerging Asia are simply suppliers to China and therefore dependent on that country? This too is not so simple... (6:01); * Markets like Indonesia move independent of China and the U.S. With 250 million people, a growing middle class, and improved infrastructure, this is one area where there are opportunities (8:21); * Financial services still have ample room to grow in the region, with large numbers of under-banked individuals. The energy sector, meanwhile, is transitioning (12:45); * Background on the guest (19:26); * Consumers are a growing force throughout Asia, but individual countries have vastly different spending habits. An overview (24:38); * There is one country that nobody is really looking at in professional investing circles. The possibilities are enormous. That country is Bangladesh (31:55).
More Information on the Guest * Book: Asia's Stock Market from the Ground Up available on GoodReads, Amazon.com also in Kindle edition, and elsewhere; * Twitter: @HeraldLinde; * LinkedIn.
This episode was recorded on Jan. 27 and aired for premium subscribers on Feb. 2, without ads or interruptions. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits (including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast), sign up through Substack or Supercast. Dave Fishwick joins the podcast to make the argument for investing in the Turkish lira after it dropped half its value versus major currencies. The appeal is not just the value but the carry, resulting in the equivalent of 30% to 40% annual interest income. To Fishwick and his team, the trade is not only contrarian but an example of the type of idiosyncratic idea that has no correlation to other parts of the portfolio. The conversation is not limited to Turkey but expands to the U.S., China, and other emerging markets during the second half of the episode. (This podcast was recorded in person at the iConnections conference in Miami. The acoustics were not ideal and there is some background noise as a result. Apologies for the inconvenience.)
Content Highlights * The macroeconomic policy experiment in Turkey, where the country's central bank took the highly unorthodox step of combating a sovereign crisis by reducing interest rates. The Turkish lira went into freefall as a result (2:24); * The lira looks attractive on a real basis, but the real appeal comes in the so-called carry, an often-forgotten part of foreign exchange markets. How this works (3:29); * Some background on the strategy by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, which is on the surface frightening. But therein lies the appeal (5:22); * Why buy the Turkish lira when the CBRT is cutting rates while the Fed is raising rates? (11:07); * If the CBRT succeeds with this experiment, could other emerging market countries follow its example? The strategy is not unprecedented... (13:15); * Background on the guest (16:19); * Fishwick's view on current markets. The market has re-rated asset classes, despite upbeat economic news (18:43); * The present situation may appear bizarre, but it not without parallel. Why it's hard to be bearish for the longer-term (21:48); * Other areas of the world that are interesting for investors, especially contrarians (24:11); * There are "some similarities" with what happened the last time the Fed entered on a sustained interest hiking campaign (2004 to 2007), but many differences. The key? Watch the inflation data, though the Fed's record on engineering soft landings is poor (27:05).
More Information on the Guest * Website: MandG.com; * LinkedIn.
This episode originally aired for premium subscribers on Jan. 18, the same day it was recorded, without ads or interruptions. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits (including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast), sign up through Substack or Supercast. Alex Morris of The Science of Hitting Investment Research joins the podcast to discuss his views of markets, asset allocation, and a couple of stocks he is particularly bullish on at present. The conversation also includes a discussion of the just-announced buyout of Activision (ATVI) by Microsoft (MSFT).
(The host has a bit of a throat issue and is hoarse for this recording. Apologies for the inconvenience.)
Content Highlights * Thinking about asset allocation in a structural manner -- with 90% or more invested in equities (3:32); * How then to invest the equity portion? The first filter is business quality (7:43); * Disney (DIS) has been one of Alex's favorite stocks for some time with Netflix (NFLX) a more recent favorite (12:26); * Background on the guest (22:18); * Other portfolio holdings and the Microsoft-Activision (ATVI) deal. Full disclosure: ATVI is/was part of the Contrarian Investor's portfolio for reasons that are briefly discussed (27:31); * Could Facebook (FB) be forced to spin off any of its holdings? (32:20); * When to sell a stock (36:18); * Lastly a short discussion about our favorite soccer/football team (38:50).
More on the Guest * Website: TheScienceOfHitting.com; * Twitter: @TSOH_Investing.
This episode brought to you by StockMarketHats.com. Enter the code "contrarian" at checkout for a 10% discount! This episode originally aired for premium subscribers on Jan. 13, the same day it was recorded, without ads or interruptions. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits (including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast), sign up through Substack or Supercast.
James Fok joins the podcast to discuss his book 'Financial Cold War: A View of Sino-US Relations from the Financial Markets'. In Fok's view, the fates of China and the U.S. are highly intertwined, and neither country's leaders want the conflict to escalate -- but that could easily change.
Content Highlights * How the financial cold war is defined, some of the ways it is already impacting society and economics, and the risks of greater conflicts (3:06); * Is military conflict between the U.S. and China inevitable? (4:49); * The fates of the two countries are highly intertwined but the U.S. dollar and global monetary system have exacerbated imbalances (7:46); * Why the belief that the USD's global role is good for the U.S. is a fallacy (11:02); * The world needs to become less USD-denominated if the financial Cold War is going to be resolved. There is precedence for this (18:00); * Background on the guest (30:00); * The state of China's economy and where it's headed (33:44); * China's economic problems are clear for all to see, but the social implications are probably being significantly underestimated (36:49).
More Information on the Guest * Website: JamesAFok.com; * Book: Financial Cold War.
This podcast episode was recorded on Jan. 5 and released to premium subscribers that same day -- without ads or announcements. To learn about becoming a premium subscriber, go here. Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics rejoins the podcast to discuss his 2022 outlook for the economy and markets. He is broadly optimistic on the former, but less enthusiastic about the latter -- at least in the first half of the year -- with strong possibility of 'uncertainty shocks,' especially around Fed events (sound familiar?) There is also some interesting discussion around interest rates, inflation, and China, among others.
Content Highlights (Spotify users can link to the start of the section by clicking on the timestamp)
- A lot has changed in a year, though probably nothing quite as much as the inflation outlook (3:04);
- Markets and economics should diverge significantly in the first half of the year (4:51);
- The Federal Reserve is due to embark on a rate-tightening cycle, which should be negative for markets but will be net-neutral, or perhaps even positive for the economy (8:00);
- Inflation is running hot, but the guest has done some deep research on similar historical epochs and finds the concern less pressing than most (17:20);
- The key level for inflation is 4% -- if the CPI exceeds it consistently there could be trouble. Link to the Fed paper referenced here (21:33);
- Still, there is a strong possibility for 'uncertainty shocks' in the first half of the year (29:52);
- Finally, China: Reasons to be bearish. Very bearish (34:58).
More Information on the Guest * Website: IronsidesMacro.com; * Newsletter: IronsidesMacro.Substack.com; * Twitter: @BarryKnapp.
This podcast episode was recorded on Dec. 15 and released to premium subscribers that same day without ads or announcements. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of this benefit and a host of other services (including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast released each market day morning) go to ContrarianPod.substack.com or Contrarian.Supercast.tech to subscribe.
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Ryan Worch of Worch Capital rejoins the podcast to provide his outlook on stocks for 2022. Spoiler alert: He’s bullish. With certain qualifications. Worch mentions specific securities in the latter half of the episode.
Nothing here is intended as investment advice.
Content Highlights * Worch’s contrarian call: We’re still in a secular bull market (4:14); * Underneath the surface there has been “some very real destruction in the speculative part of the markets.” Why this is happening (6:05); * Is there any hopes for the Cathie Wood names, meme stocks, cryptos, and NFTs? (9:25); * Many people are bearish. Too many (15:33); * How Worch Capital is positioning its portfolio and some favorite names (20:45);
- A brief discussion about inflation (28:09).
More Information on the Guest * Website: WorchCapital.com; * Twitter: @WorchCapital.
This episode originally aired for premium subscribers on Dec. 2, the same day it was recorded, without ads or interruptions. To become a premium subscriber and gain access (as well as take advantage of a host of other benefits, including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast), sign up through Substack or Supercast. This episode uses mature language. Discretion is advised for listeners that may be sensitive to this type of thing. Enrique Abeyta of Empire Financial Research rejoins the podcast to discuss his views on the omicron strain of Covid-19 and inflation, and share his excitement about the metaverse.
Meta, the company formerly known as Facebook, could become the world's first $5 trillion enterprise.
Not intended as investment advice.
Content Highlights * The market didn't go down because of omicron or because of what the Fed chair said. What caused the selling instead (5:09); * Omicron is not the first Covid strain. It won't be the last. Society and the economy have been able to deal with the variants (6:28); * Inflation is another boogey man (8:10); * The spike in the VIX is more noteworthy -- and a bullish indicator for stocks (12:39); * What about gold? (16:56); * The metaverse: It's already here. People just don't realize it yet (24:07); * Meta, the stock formerly known as Facebook, is as good a way as any to profit from these developments (27:29); * Oil and gas "could go to the moon" (39:52).
More Information on the Guest * Website: EmpireFinancialResearch.com; * Twitter: @EnriqueAbeyta; * Everything about HardMoneyMag.
This episode brought to you by StockMarketHats.com. Enter the code "contrarian" at checkout for a 10% discount!
This episode originally aired for premium subscribers on Nov. 11, the same day it was recorded, without ads or interruptions. To become a premium subscriber and gain access (as well as take advantage of a host of other benefits, including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast), sign up through Substack or Supercast.
Emma Muhleman of Ascend Investment Management joins the podcast to make the contrarian argument that inflation is overrated, will not cause the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, and that deflationary forces are the bigger worry for global financial markets.
These deflationary forces are both short term (slowdown in China) and long term (demographics in the developed world). Much of the discussion centers around the former.
Muhleman's comments are her own and not a reflection of her employer. Nothing here is intended as investment advice.
Content Highlights (Spotify listeners can click on the timestamp to link to the start of the segment)
- The market is pricing in a series of interest rate hikes for the coming 24 months. But the Fed has backed off of a tightening schedule before (2:18);
- Bonds have been selling off, but investors will find themselves on the wrong side of this trade when Fed backs off of tapering (4:07);
- Inflation is a supply-side problem that the Fed doesn't have control of. Markets are too fragile to handle rate hikes (5:06);
- The latest FOMC meeting where tapering was announced "was probably the most dovish taper you could come up with" (9:20);
- Deflationary forces, starting with China, are a major issue the market is overlooking. This despite the best (non-publicized) efforts by the Chinese government (10:49);
- It's not just China though; demographics and debt are part of the longer-term trend toward deflation (19:19);
- Background on the guest (22:33);
- What about potential headwinds, from China or elsewhere? (24:58);
- Unwinding Evergrande: Where is the exposure? (29:05);
- How much longer can the Fed taper before their hand is forced to back off? (31:17);
- What indicators should investors keep an eye on to monitor this situation? (34:35).
More Information on the Guest * Twitter: @Emma_cfa; * LinkedIn.
mployer. Nothing here is intended as investment advice.
This episode brought to you by StockMarketHats.com. Enter the code “contrarian” at checkout for a 10% discount! This episode originally aired for premium subscribers on Nov. 4, the same day it was recorded, without ads or interruptions. To become a premium subscriber and gain access (as well as take advantage of a host of other benefits, including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast), sign up through Substack or Supercast.
Note: The aforementioned service has nothing to do with David Hunter's newsletter. Individuals interested in finding out more about that service should contact David directly by Twitter direct message.
David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors rejoins the podcast to provide updates on his prediction that stock markets are in the final stage of a parabolic melt-up that will be followed by a global bust.
Hunter's initial targets for the S&P 500, Dow Industrials, and other U.S. stock market indexes have been breached, causing him to provide new, even more bullish, targets.
The bust will likely start with a 'second-quarter swoon' next year, caused by the Federal Reserve overreacting to inflation. The deflationary meltdown will then cause another overreaction by central banks and government fiscal policies.
Not intended as investment advice.
Content Highlights (Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the start of the segment in question)
- Hunter's new targets on the S&P, Dow, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 (2:50);
- Oil and oil stocks have peaked for this cycle (6:50);
- The bust should happen about mid-way through 2022 and result in oil prices back in the mid-$20s range (8:25);
- The cycle will end because the Federal Reserve tightens interest rates due to inflationary pressures (10:28);
- Central banks around the world are withdrawing quantitative easing and some have even started to adjust interest rates higher. This will affect things and force the Fed's hand. Resolution of supply chain issues would increase the pressure (15:54);
- China will definitely play a major role in the bust, though Evergrande is probably just the tip of the iceberg (19:27);
- What happens after the bust is an unprecedented flow of liquidity. Yes, even more than COVID. There will be bank failures, though more in Europe and Asia than the U.S. (21:17);
- Central banks only have one tool to combat this, which is quantitative easing. They will be matched by fiscal stimulus. It will be "March of 2020 on steroids, basically. Multiple steroids" (26:07).
More Information on the Guest * Twitter: @DaveHContrarian (send him a direct message if you are interested in finding out more about his service).
This episode brought to you by StockMarketHats.com. Enter the code "contrarian" at checkout for a 10% discount!
This episode originally aired for premium subscribers on Oct. 28, the same day it was recorded, without ads or interruptions. To become a premium subscriber and take advantage of a host of other benefits (including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast), sign up through Substack or Supercast.
Simon Erickson, founder and CEO of 7investing, joins the podcast to discuss three areas of technological innovation and disruption that stand to transform the world of business as we know it.
The guest identifies one stock from each area, with the understanding that it is not intended as investment advice.
Content Highlights (Spotify users can link to the start of the section by clicking on the timestamp)
- Why focusing on technological change is contrarian (3:41);
- Idea No. 1: Buy now, pay later or BNPL. Disruptive to credit card companies (4:37);
- Several upstarts have 'cracked this code' but Erickson has one that he's been paying close attention to (5:57);
- Idea No. 2: Quantum computing (14:23);
- Background on the guest (22:25);
- Idea No. 3: Gene editing (25:24);
- How to go about picking entry points for investments in these areas? (31:30);
- What about cryptocurrencies and blockchain technologies? (33:47).
More Information on the Guest * Website: 7investing.com; * Twitter: @7innovator; * More on 7investing subscriptions here.
This episode brought to you by the Me, Myself and AI podcast. To get episodes without ads or interruptions, and take advantage of a host of other benefits (including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast), consider joining our premium service. Prices start at $9/month. More information on our Substack and Supercast. Jared Bibler joins the podcast to discuss his book 'Iceland's Secret' and his experience living through that country's financial collapse in 2008.
It was a very dark period in Iceland's history, with individuals losing homes and savings and not being able to buy food. The author experienced this first-hand, initially as an asset manager and later working for regulators seeking to bring the responsible parties to justice.
The crisis in Iceland shocked the world but was quickly overshadowed by the collapse of Lehman Brothers in the U.S. Today it is largely forgotten outside of Iceland. But the author says his experience holds many lessons for the present day.
If nothing else, his experience holds lessons for those interested in hedging against a total collapse of capital markets and civil society.
Content Highlights (Spotify users can link to the start of the segment directly by clicking on the timestamp)
- Why Iceland's financial crisis remains misunderstood and not discussed while still holding important relevance to global capital markets today (2:36);
- Iceland as an extreme example of the contemporary world (7:51);
- Corruption unfortunately remains 'fairly endemic' worldwide in the guest's experience, which transcends several countries (12:43);
- The next crisis will make 2008 'look like a walk in the park' (14:27);
- Lessons for the prepper community: hard currency retains its value quite well in such crises (18:57);
- The crypto world is ripe for fraud and 'tethered' coins do not seem to offer the protection claimed (23:30);
- Background on the guest (29:21);
- How he's spending his days now and why ESG has the attention of global regulators (36:54);
- Insider trading, especially around M&A deals, is rampant (38:36);
- What has changed in Iceland, other than a tourist explosion (43:50).
More Information on the Author * Order the book online here; * Website: IcelandsSecret.com; * Twitter: @Jared_Bibler.
Not intended as investment advice.
This episode brought to you by StockMarketHats.com. Enter the code "contrarian" at checkout for a 10% discount!
To get episodes without ads or interruptions, and take advantage of a host of other benefits (including the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast), consider joining our premium service. Prices start at $9/month. More information on our Substack and Supercast.
Todd Sullivan of ValuePlays.com joins the podcast to discuss his long term bullish views on oil.
The guest also provides his favorite stocks -- all portfolio holdings of his -- for investors to take advantage of this trend.
Content Highlights (Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the start of the section directly)
- Big picture elements of supply, demand, and infrastructure that are driving the long term bull case for oil (2:50);
- What about the potential for an economic slowdown in the U.S. and more importantly China? How might that impact things? (7:39);
- Background on the guest and how he turned his passion as a blogger and investor into his current position (11:17);
- The three energy names he really likes right now (18:51);
- Energy has been unpopular for some time and people are under the illusion that gas and oil are going away. "Nothing could be further from the truth." (25:28);
- Why transport companies are more of a pure-play on energy prices than drillers (29:30);
- $100/barrel oil is a "realistic scenario" and prices could stay high after that as the macro outlook remains constructive (37:17);
- The bullish outlook for the cannabis industry in the U.S. -- this will be the topic of a future episode (42:49).
More Information on the Guest * Website: ValuePlays.com; * Twitter: @ToddSullivan.
Special Offer for Listeners * Subscribe to ValuePlays at the original rate (discount of 63% over current prices). The guest discusses specifics of the service starting at (32:04).
Get this podcast episode without ads and receive episodes up to a full week before regular subscribers. You also get the Daily Contrarian briefing and mini-podcast each morning. Sign up through our Substack or Supercast. Dominque Mielle joins the podcast to discuss the transformation of the hedge fund industry, as encapsulated in her book 'Damsel in Distressed: My Life in the Golden Age of Hedge Funds.'
Mielle's career in hedge funds spans three decades, a period of dramatic growth that has culminated with many investors today questioning whether it still makes sense to allocate to the asset class -- to the extent that it can even be called an asset class.
The guest says hedge funds still have value in certain circumstances, but there are many forces working against them.
She also has some views on markets and even cryptos that are discussed in the back end of the episode.
Content Highlights (Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the start of the segment directly)
- Her reasons for writing the book: very few women in hedge funds and the critical growth periods she observed in the industry (2:05);
- So does the hedge fund industry have a future? (5:15);
- What exactly has changed in the last 20+ years to make hedge funds less compelling? (8:02);
- There is certainly less mystique around hedge funds, and the media now reports returns and other things regularly -- something the host himself has been guilty of. How has that affected things? (13:54);
- Okay, so what is the value proposition for hedge funds? (18:58);
- Background on the guest (25:36);
- What if a woman wrote a 'Liar's Poker' of the hedge fund world? And why aren't there more women in finance? (31:30);
- The guest's view of markets at present. Tapering is critical (40:23);
- Her views on cryptocurrencies (44:47).
More Information on the Guest: * Website: DominiqueMielle.com; * Book: Damsel In Distressed, by Post Hill Press; * Twitter: DominiqueMielle.
Not intended as investment advice.
This episode brought to you by the Connecticut Economic Literacy Initiative. The get this podcast without ads or announcements, and a week before regular subscribers, sign up for the premium service through our Substack or Supercast. Michael Green, portfolio manager and chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, joins the podcast to discuss the changing dynamics of market structure and how these are creating the potential for havoc.
Content Highlights: (Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the segment directly)
- Market structure: what it means and how it has changed (3:30);
- How passive investing pools are changing the equation (6:26);
- How Tesla (TSLA) is the perfect case study for this phenomenon (8:39);
- The Fed's impact when it comes to the bond market. This has ripple effect (13:02);
- The interest rate and inflation outlook in the U.S. (15:34);
- Background on the guest (20:55);
- Passive investing has caused a host of confusing signals where the market cycle is concerned (24:37);
- Business cycles are still alive and well, and this can of course impact the market. Where that stands today (30:05);
- Market 'skew' is dramatically higher and chances of a collapse are increasing. "The market senses something is wrong." (34:31).
More Information on the Guest: * Twitter: @profplum99; * Website: Simplify.us.
This episode brought to you by the Connecticut Economic Literacy Initiative. The get this podcast without ads or announcements, and a week before regular subscribers, sign up for the premium service through our Substack or Supercast. Gad Levanon, head of Labor Market Institute at The Conference Board, joins the podcast to discuss his views of employment trends.
Levanon's analysis differs from the consensus view of labor markets. In his view, unusual demographic and educational trends are causing a 'new normal' of shortages among blue-collar workers. These jobs can be expected to see fast wage growth, bringing a host of restraints on the next stage of economic expansion.
Content Highlights: (Spotify users can link directly to the start of the segment in question by clicking on the timestamp below)
- The 'new normal' of labor shortages (3:35);
- The economic impact of rising wages for blue-collar workers: corporate profits and higher consumer prices (7:29);
- Automation has the potential to help the trend somewhat, but there are reasons to be skeptical (10:37);
- How close is the U.S. to reaching full employment? (14:29);
- What all of this says for the next stage of the economic cycle (16:57);
- Background on the guest (20:22);
- The 'work-from-home' trend and how that is impacting things (22:47);
- Other trends in employment and labor markets (27:27);
- The guest's primary concerns about the economy and society at present (31:22).
Background on the Guest: * The Conference Board website and bio; * Forbes contributions.
This episode brought to you by the Connecticut Economic Literacy Initiative. The get this podcast without ads or announcements, and a week before regular subscribers, sign up for the premium service through our Substack or Supercast. William L. Silber, author of the book ‘The Power of Nothing to Lose: The Hail Mary Effect in Politics, War, and Business,’ joins the podcast to discuss his thesis that individuals, including investors, can become reckless gamblers if they have nothing to lose.
Silber has a career dating back to 1966 in academia and Wall Street. His comments are pertinent in the present day of cryptocurrencies, the ‘retailization’ of options trading, NFTs, and meme stocks, among others. So is his recommendation (not investment advice) to reduce risk exposure.
Content Highlights * When people have downside protection and limitless losses, “they tend to become reckless and almost gamblers” (3:48) * Rogue traders and the skewed payoff that makes them go rogue (14:41); * What to make of the present day and investors’ collective risk appetite, especially regarding meme stocks? (17:32); * Background on the guest (24:55); * A valuable lesson learned at Odyssey Partners in the 1980s: what’s an exit strategy? (27:47); * Is this a time for investors to reduce risks and sell stocks? (30:26); * Precious metals and their place in a modern portfolio (36:52);
More Information on the Guest * Website: WilliamLSilber.com; * Wikipedia; * Places to buy the book; * LinkedIn.
Check out the new Substack and sign up to listen without ads or announcements -- and get the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast each morning.
Michael Ehrlich, director of the Leir Center for Financial Bubble Research at the New Jersey Institute of Technology, joins the podcast to discuss his views.
Dr. Ehrlich has identified two areas of concern: sovereign debt and financial engineering.
This is not his only area of interest however, as Dr. Ehrlich is passionate about early-stage venture/angel investing, which guides the discussion in the second half of the episode.
Content Highlights
- It's been a long time since the last sovereign debt crisis. Too long (1:47);
- Keep an eye out for private equity as well (8:02);
- Bubbles are part of the market and can even be viewed as a good thing. Until they aren't (9:44);
- SPACs and cryptos are two examples of financial engineering potentially gone awry (10:56);
- Background on the guest (15:07);
- Venture capital has historically controlled early-stage investing. But this is changing (18:07);
- Financial technology, aka 'fintech' is one area Dr. Ehrlich likes a lot (20:20);
- What about driverless cars? (23:35)
For More Information on the Guest
- NJIT.edu biography;
- Henry J. and Erna D. Leir Research Institute for Business, Technology, and Society website.
More Coverage of These Topics
- S3E12: The Real and Present Regulatory Risk Facing Cryptocurrencies;
- S2E35: How Bubbles and False Narratives Made Financial Markets;
- S2E4: Private Credit is Fentanyl.
Check out the new Substack and sign up to listen without ads or announcements -- and get the Daily Contrarian briefing and podcast each morning. Alfonso Peccatiello joins the podcast to discuss his contrarian views on inflation, bond yields, and interest rates.
The guest doesn't buy the inflation narrative entirely, believing credit creation has peaked. We are likely to see negative economic surprises and drawdowns in risk assets starting in the fourth quarter. Yield on 10-year bonds should peak at 0.5% due to a 'Eurofication' of the U.S. yield curve.
Content Highlights: * Why concerns about inflation are misguided (1:54); * The Fed is right. Inflation is transitory (6:37); * Demand for bank loans is "terrible," despite extremely low yields (13:54); * Why do bond yields continue to drop? (18:16); * The bond market is saying growth and credit creation has peaked (23:24); * Why central banks' digital currency experiments are potentially a game-changer (27:49); * Background on the guest (33:04); * The 'four quadrant' approach to macro investing and where we are right now (36:26); * The Fed tightening cycle should start in late 2022 and peak around 0.75% (47:50); * How low do we go on the 10-year this cycle? (57:00)
More Information on the Guest: * Website: The Macro Compass; * Twitter: @MacroAlf.
Not intended as investment advice.
This episode is brought to you by Merk Research. Visit this link to take advantage of the offer presented on the podcast. To listen without ads or announcements, become a premium subscriber or join our substack, which gets you access to a host of other benefits, including (but not limited to) the new Daily Contrarian podcast and briefing, published every market day morning by 7:00 a.m. ET.
Deepak Gurnani, managing partner of Versor Investments, joins the podcast to discuss merger arbitrage investing.
Merger arb is the rare strategy that can (really!) consistently produce non-correlated returns. But it isn't easy to execute. Gurnani provides some information around what has worked for his firm and things to look for for those wishing to get involved with the strategy.
Not intended as investment advice.
Content Highlights:(Spotify users can click on the time stamp to link to the start of the segment) * Versor Investments' unique approach to merger arbitrage and why it's different from most fundamental-based approaches (3:53); * Ultimately success in merger arb comes down to differentiating between mergers that will close successfully and those that will be terminated -- and then overweighting the former (5:39); * Some of the alternative data sources that Versor uses to track and rate announced deals (7:49); * A merger's time-to-completion and why it can be vital (13:51); * Digging in to the 10% failure rate for announced mergers and why it is likely inflated (15:41); * The antitrust environment under new FTC chair Lina Khan and other regulatory uncertainty (18:28); * Technology M&A: an opportunity? (21:44); * Background on the guest (25:12); * The state of M&A dealflow in the U.S. (28:50); * Improved offers and competing bids are on the rise, dramatically (33:23).
For More Information on this Topic: * Website: VersorInvest.com; * The Environment for Merger Arbitrage 2021: Link to paper.
This episode is brought to you by Merk Research. Visit this link to take advantage of the offer presented on the podcast. To listen without ads or announcements, become a premium subscriber or join our substack, which gets you access to a host of other benefits, including (but not limited to) the new Daily Contrarian podcast, released every market day morning by 7:00 a.m. eastern time.
Colin Lancaster, global head of macro/fixed income at Schonfeld Strategic Partner Fund, joins the podcast to discuss his book Fed Up! Success, Excess and Crisis Through the Eyes of a Hedge Fund Macro Trader.The book spans the period from October 2019 to June 2020 and includes the height of the coronavirus crisis. This features heavily into the conversation. We also discuss the Federal Reserve and his view of current markets.
Content Highlights: (Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the segment directly) * What went into him writing the book? What was the impetus? (3:50); * Macro investing and the need to be a diversifier and disaster hedge (7:38); * What is he most concerned about right now in markets? (12:07); * What does an investor do in this market, especially with the Fed continuing to hold rates near zero? (14:30); * The Fed's experiment is "dangerous" and the central bank has "very little credibility" when it comes to inflation (18:55); * Background on the guest (23:49); * The Fed's role in creating and fostering wealth inequality is significant, despite its good intentions (27:48); * How to go about fixing this? Does the Fed perhaps have too much autonomy? (31:30); * The book is technically a novel and has quite a few characters. Are these fictional or based on real people? (36:28); * Alternative data; some ideas of what to look for (40:35).
More Information on the Guest * Website: ColinLancaster.me; * Twitter: @ColinLancaster; * Buy the book on Amazon.
Not intended as investment advice.
Scott Colbert, chief economist at Commerce Trust Company in St. Louis, rejoins the Contrarian Investor Podcast to discuss the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and state of the economy.
This was a quick call recorded over a phone line on Tuesday, June 15.
Content Highlights: * The Fed meeting that concludes June 16 and the coming discussion around the rolldown of QE (0:52); * Colbert's reasons for being "grossly optimistic" about the economy (3:43); * The biggest concern is around the length of the current expansion (5:04); * The prospects of asset bubbles and why the 'dot plot' should see an increase from four to six or seven members of the FOMC who want to see higher interest rates (7:37); * Where does all this leave investors? (11:06); * What is driving the drop in bond yields (14:41);
Not intended as investment advice.
This episode is brought to you by Merk Research. Visit this link to take advantage of the offer presented on the podcast. To listen without ads or announcements, become a premium subscriber, which gets you access to a host of other benefits, including (but not limited to) the new Daily Contrarian podcast, released every market day morning by 7:00 a.m. eastern time.
Gav Blaxberg of WOLF Financial joins the podcast to discuss his views of the retail investors who have been pushing stocks like GameStop and more recently AMC.
Blaxberg's research on this phenomenon predates the GameStop brouhaha. He has reasons to believe retail investors have been gaining in power and will be a growing force to reckon with when it comes to major movement, especially among small cap stocks.
Content Highlights:
(Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the segment in question) * What happened with GameStop was not an anomaly. Expect more where that came from (3:47);
* The trend did not start with GameStop, but can be traced to the 'Kodak movement' (5:07);
* Institutions still have more capital and control more of public companies' shares. How are smaller retail investors able to move these stocks? Even small caps? (8:23);
* The return of retail investors, which hasn't been seen since the heady days of the dot-com doom, can be traced in large part to commission-free trades (10:37);
* Quick segue after the guest mentions he gets 9% APR on his blockchain-linked savings account -- in USD (14:25);
* Background on the guest and how he came to start WOLF Financial (20:42);
* Twitter remains the most actionable social media platform when it comes to moving stocks. Everything else is a distant second. Yes, even Reddit (32:30);
* So what stocks are popular on social media right now? It's still growth stocks. Some examples (36:34);
* What stocks have potential but don't do enough (or anything on social media) and could boost their popularity with retail investors if they changed this? Some examples (39:34).
More Information on the Guest * Wolf Financial website: WOLF.Financial; * Wolf Financial Twitter: @WOLF_Financial; * Personal Twitter: @GavBlaxberg.
Not intended as investment advice.
This episode is brought to you by Merk Research. Visit this link to take advantage of the offer presented on the podcast. To listen without ads or announcements, become a premium subscriber, which gets you access to a host of other benefits, including (but not limited to) the new Daily Contrarian podcast, released every market day morning by 7:00 a.m. eastern time.
Jacob Ma-Weaver of Cable Car Capital Management joins the podcast to discuss the regulatory risk facing cryptocurrencies. This podcast was recorded on May 19, a day bitcoin dropped some 15% after the People's Bank of China published a report warning over the use of digital currencies. But even before the PBOC, cryptos were dropping in value. Bitcoin has declined more than 30% from its high set earlier this month.
Ma-Weaver's interest in cryptocurrencies originates with his work as an activist short-seller. He has held conversations with regulators on cryptocurrency exchanges in particular. That was much of the focus of the conversation.
Not intended as investment advice. Nothing on this episode should be taken as an endorsement for or criticism of cryptocurrencies in any form.
Content Highlights
(Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the start of the section directly) * What informs Ma-Weaver's perspective on cryptocurrencies and crypto regulation, and his thoughts on the PBOC move (5:37);
* Crypto exchanges: How are they currently regulated in the U.S., and why is this one of the biggest areas of potential enforcement? (11:24);
* A lot of the issue boils down to 'what is a security?' The definition is quite broad, contrary to what proponents of digital currencies might claim (14:50);
* Why haven't any government agencies stepped in to try to regulate cryptos? (21:54);
* More background on the guest (34:39);
* Specifics on what might be coming from regulators in the U.S. (38:45);
* Publicly-traded companies that serve as proxies for crypto. Are they at risk? (49:02);
* Does increased regulation remove the utility of cryptos? (51:21);
* Ten years from now, will cryptos still be a thing? The short answer: no (53:26).
More Information on the Guest: * Twitter: @CableCarCapital.
This episode is brought to you by Merk Research. Visit this link to take advantage of the offer presented on the podcast. To listen without ads or announcements, become a premium subscriber, which gets you access to a host of other benefits, including (but not limited to) the new Daily Contrarian podcast, released every market day morning by 7:00 a.m. eastern time.
Chris Krug of Chatham Harbor Capital Management joins the podcast to discuss his hedge fund's strategy of buying equity of distressed companies.
Krug has a unique background and a unique approach, targeting the equity of companies that are heavily indebted but face a transformation. He shares his insights with listeners with the understanding that nothing is to be considered investment advice.
Content Highlights
(Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the start of the segment directly) * Overview of Krug's contrarian investment strategy: buying stocks of companies that are loaded up with debt (3:49);
* Debt-to-Ebitda is not a great metric. Investors should look at debt to free cash flow instead (5:57);
* Chatham Harbor's screening process for new ideas (9:44);
* The fund's largest holding right now: a collections agency for the IRS and student loans that is transforming to a healthcare company (15:27);
* A look at the macro picture: what if interest rates go up and it becomes harder for these companies to refinance? (28:05);
* Background on the guest (30:28);
* More about Chatham Harbor's portfolio and its holding of a private prison company (34:03);
* The small-cap game is about volume. You need to look at thousands of names and stay on top of the developments (43:42).
More Information on the Guest * Website: ChathamHarborCapital.com; * Twitter: @chcap2016; * LinkedIn.
This episode is brought to you by Merk Research. Visit this link to take advantage of the offer presented on the podcast. To listen without ads or announcements, become a premium subscriber, which gets you access to a host of other benefits, including (but not limited to) the new Daily Contrarian podcast, released every market day morning by 7:00 a.m. eastern time.
Ethan Widell, senior analyst at Ironhold Capital, joins the podcast to discuss the case for Indian stocks.
The country is currently suffering under record cases of coronavirus, with horrific humanitarian consequences. This has understandably weighed on investors' minds. But there are other transformations underway in India's economy that make the investing prospects exciting in the long run.
Content Highlights
(Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the start of the segment directly)
- India's macroeconomic positioning is "extraordinary" and conducive to growth (3:01);
- Infrastructure and bureaucratic red tape remain an impediment to growth, but the trend is toward deregulation (7:10);
- Covid cases are spiking. A clear concern and troubling from a humanitarian point of view, but where investing is concerned Ironhold sees this as a short-term issue. Indeed, most companies have already adjusted (11:20);
- What sectors is Ironhold most excited about right now? (13:53);
- Background on the guest (20:22);
- A niche segment of India's stock market that the firm likes a lot right now (24:12);
- Contrary to popular belief, there are opportunities to buy stocks for those willing to look in niche corners of the market. One is India's mutual fund industry (29:12).
More Information on the Guest * Website: IronholdCapital.com; * LinkedIn; * Podcast: Leaders in Business and Investing.
This episode is brought to you by Merk Research. Visit this link to take advantage of the offer presented on the podcast. To listen without ads or announcements, become a premium subscriber, which gets you access to a host of other benefits, including (but not limited to) the new Daily Contrarian podcast, released every market day morning by 7:00 a.m. eastern time.
Chris Belchamber joins the podcast to discuss his book Invest Like The Best: The Low-Risk Road to High Returns and challenge the axiom that market-beating returns are not possible without taking on large amounts of risk.
Belchamber has studied the most successful investors' track records over decades. One thing they all have in common is prioritizing risk aversion and behavioral discipline. There are simple lessons to be learned for 'novice' investors.
Content Highlights:
(Spotify users can link to the segment directly by clicking on the timestamp) * Most financial advisers have bought in to the idea that more risk will generate higher returns. This "simple line of argumentation is just wrong." (6:39);
* 'Paradox investing' and Radobank's model (10:57);
* The mindset of successful investors is all about risk aversion. The biggest problem facing investors is their own behavior (13:56);
* 'The optimization of the brain' function: what it is and how to go about it without getting exhausted (17:23);
* Background on the guest (23:05);
* Belchamber's meeting with John Meriwether (26:42);
* Jim Simons and Renaissance Technologies (28:52);
* Red flags and other things investors should look for (33:07);
* The current state of the economic and market cycle and why the second half of this year could be a lot different -- and worse (38:29).
More Information about the Guest: * Website: ChrisBelchamber.com; * Book via Amazon.com; * Twitter: @ChrisCBIM.
This episode is brought to you by Merk Research. Visit this link to take advantage of the offer presented on the podcast. To listen without ads or announcements, become a premium subscriber, which gets you access to a host of other benefits, including (but not limited to) the new Daily Contrarian podcast, released every market day morning by 7:00 a.m. eastern time.
David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors rejoins the podcast to update listeners on his prediction of a 'parabolic melt-up' in risk assets that will be followed by a 'deflationary' bust.
Over the course of the 40-minute conversation, Hunter also updates his forecasts for rates, technology stocks, commodities, and more.
This podcast was recorded the morning of Monday, March 22 and made available to premium subscribers that same day.
Content Highlights
(Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the start of the segment directly) * The coming 'parabolic melt-up': new targets for stocks and bonds and timing (3:01);
* What will cause the bust: The Fed will be forced to tighten, despite chairman Powell's current (sincere) views. This will not likely be by raising interest rates but by tapering bond purchases (7:01);
* Unlike many of his predecessors, Powell is actually trying to be transparent so those conspiracy theories (including one voiced by the host) are probably wide of the mark (9:36);
* "It won't take a big tightening to send us back in the other direction in a hurry." People are underestimating how fast this can happen (16:37);
* For now the stimulus checks and reopenings have not worked there way through the economy yet. They may not have even started. This will lead to the "final, vertical phase" of the melt-up (21:48);
* The coming bust will see a 80% correction, peak to trough (25:14);
* What comes after that: the deflationary bust (32:02).
More on David's newsletter
Contrary to popular opinion, this subscription does not provide access to David's quarterly newsletter!
That needs to be arranged with David himself. The best way to do so is through Twitter: @DaveHContrarian (DMs are open).
Alternately, you can email contrarianpod@gmail.com if you do not have Twitter or don't wish to/know how to engage with it. In such instance the host will forward your emails to David.
Not intended as investment advice.
This episode is brought to you by Merk Research. Visit this link to take advantage of the offer presented on the podcast. To listen without ads or announcements, become a premium subscriber, which gets you access to a host of other benefits, including (but not limited to) the new Daily Contrarian podcast, released every market day morning by 7:00 a.m. eastern time.
Gary Mishuris, managing partner and chief investment officer at Boston-based Silver Ring Value Partners, joins the podcast to discuss using behavioral finance to protect against mistakes in one's own investing process.
The conversation quickly moves to Archegos Capital and whether this is a contained event that can be a buying opportunity -- or whether it constitutes systemic risk for the market in general.
Later we discuss financial literacy and how investment managers face a real conflict that prevents them from being true fiduciaries.
Content Highlights (Spotify users can link to the segment directly by clicking on the timestamp) * Behavioral finance: not just to identify investment opportunities (3:42); * The first step is admitting you have a problem (5:25); * The Devil's Advocate Club (6:31); * Archegos Capital and the blocktrade controversy (14:19); * Is the Archegos Capital issue a contained event or something like the Long Term Capital Management crisis? Or perhaps a 'canary in the coalmine' type of thing? (21:40); * Central banks may not have the market's back indefinitely and relying on the Fed may be (24:19); * Background on the guest (32:51); * The conflict preventing fund managers from being true fiduciaries (31:31); * The need for fund managers to train their investors (35:20); * Financial literacy and educating the broader public about investing (46:54); * The name of the fund (Silver Ring) is not a Lord of the Rings reference. The story behind how the fund got its name (50:03)
More Information on the Guest * Website: SilverRingValuePartners.com; * Behavioral Value Investor publication; * Request the owner's manual discussed here (free).
This episode is brought to you by Merk Research. Visit this link to take advantage of the offer presented on the podcast. To listen without ads or announcements, become a premium subscriber, which gets you access to a host of other benefits, including (but not limited to) the new Daily Contrarian podcast, released every market day morning by 7:00 a.m. eastern time.
Shana Sissel, chief investment officer of Spotlight Asset Group, joins the podcast to discuss her bullish outlook on technology stocks and other views on the markets.
Just because tech stocks might not be overbought (yet) doesn't mean there aren't sections of the markets that are frothy. Take SPACs for example. That is sure to end badly.
Sissel also has some views on working from home, why there aren't more women in professional investing, GameStop, and which cities in the U.S. have the best pizza, among other things.
Content Highlights
(Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the segment directly) * The bullish case for tech stocks remains intact. They may be expensive, but you need to pay for growth at this stage of the cycle (3:11);
* There's even upside for Zoom Video Communications (NASDAQ:ZM), though not as much as other stocks (7:09);
* These other stocks include NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA), Marvell Technology Group NASDAQ:MRVL), and Activision Blizzard (NASDQ:ATVI) (9:32);
* GameStop (NYSE:GME) discussion. Yes, really. Though AMC (NYSE:AMC) is a better example of what we're talking about (14:50);
* The guest's views on the economic picture and why higher rates are not really a concern (19:07);
* Her views on SPACs. Spoiler alert: this won't end well (24:19);
* Background on the guest (39:39);
* Her podcast, The Black Swans, and how it came to be (51:10);
* Women in finance and why they're still under-represented (55:54);
* A discussion of pizza: Worcester, Mass. versus New Haven, Conn. versus New York versus Chicago versus Detroit (1:08:18).
More Information on the Guest * Spotlight Asset Group: Who We Are; * Twitter: @ShanaS621; * Podcast: The Black Swans; * Instagram: @finance_queen2020.
Not intended as investment advice.
This episode is brought to you by Merk Research. Visit this link to take advantage of the offer presented on the podcast. To listen without ads or announcements, become a premium subscriber, which gets you access to a host of other benefits, including (but not limited to) the new Daily Contrarian podcast, released every market day morning by 7:00 a.m. eastern time.
Sean Fieler, president and chief investment officer at hedge fund firm Equinox Partners, joins the podcast to make the case for an unloved part of the equity markets: gold and silver miners.
This case is based on several variables, starting with unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy that has marked this particular epoch in global financial markets. "The idea that gold and silver wouldn't do well in that environment are totally at odds with financial history," says Fieler.
It goes a lot further than this, of course. Fieler discusses the variables and even presents some favorite stocks.
Content Segments
(Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the section directly) * The case for underlying gold and silver miners, including the compounding of fiscal and monetary policy. (3:03);
* Why invest in miners rather than in the physical commodity, or futures contracts thereon? (7:26);
* One concern with ETFs tracking prices of physical metals: the administrators are not necessarily reliable counterparties (9:00);
* There are risks with owning miners as well, of course (11:41);
* More information on the guest (15:17);
* One surprising fact: West Africa is a good place to build a mine. Latin America is much more difficult (17:27);
* Ghana's fledgling securities market may be a good opportunity for investment (19:48);
* One favorite stock: Endeavor Mining Corp (OTC:EDVMF) (21:35);
* A microcap name to watch: RTG Mining (GREY: RTGGF), a copper and gold miner in the Philippines (25:19);
* A little background on the fund, which predates the gym of the same name (27:52).
Not intended as investment advice.
This episode is brought to you by Merk Research. Visit this link to take advantage of the offer presented on the podcast. To listen without ads or announcements, become a premium subscriber, which gets you access to a host of other benefits, including (but not limited to) the new Daily Contrarian podcast, released every market day morning around 7:00 a.m. eastern time.
"Ze Contrarian," a well-known and well-followed fintwit investor (Twitter handle: @ZeContrarian7) joins the podcast to discuss his investment philosophy and provide several stock picks for listeners.
A few segments of this episode contain adult language. Listener discretion is advised.
Content Segments
(Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the segment directly) * Investment philosophy and view of the markets: it's a brave new world with promoters on social media and elsewhere moving stocks (3:00);
* Where are the opportunities right now? Things move quickly, but biotechnology and companies that are part of the "great reopening" are two fertile areas (9:17);
* First idea: Odonate Therapeutics (NASDAQ: ODT) (15:33);
* Second idea: MediWound (NASDAQ: MDWD) (18:41);
* Third idea: Farfetch (NYSE: FTCH) (23:33);
* Fourth idea: Hostelworld Group (PINK: HSWLF). "There's no better example for a contrarian investment than this stock." (28:17);
* Brief discussion of hostels, where the host unwittingly reveals just how much of a boomer he really is (34:56);
* Background on the guest (45:26)
* The contrarian indicator that allowed him to get out of the market ahead of the COVID meltdown last February (50:55);
* How does he find opportunities? It's all about building a network (54:37);
* How to produce income? BDCs, or business development companies. Current favorite: Golub Capital (NASDAQ: GBDC) (59:32);
* The coming boom in long-term travel and remote work and why it bodes well for the hotel industry (1:05:46);
* The potential of Mexico (1:08:19).
Additional Material * Hostelworld investment thesis via Twitter;
Not intended as investment advice.
This episode is brought to you by Merk Research. Visit this link to take advantage of the offer presented on the podcast. To listen without ads or announcements, become a premium subscriber, which gets you access to a host of other benefits, including (but not limited to) the new Daily Contrarian podcast, released every market day morning around 7:00 a.m. eastern time.
Leo Schmidt, chief investment officer of hedge fund firm River Eddy Capital Management, joins the podcast to discuss some of his favorite ideas in three areas of the market he expects to out-perform.
These areas are: Energy, aircraft leasing, and 5G infrastructure development. Stock picks are provided, but you have to listen to the podcast to hear (most of) them.
Content Segments
(Spotify users can link to the start of the segment by clicking on the timestamp) * Energy markets: The coming supply/demand imbalance (3:03);
* Equitrans Midstream (NYSE: ETRN) and the opportunity in natural gas pipeline companies (6:43);
* The sell side's argument against ETRN, based around regulatory risk due to environmental issues (9:08);
* Fossil fuels aren't going anywhere, even with electric vehicles and ESG initiatives (12:51);
* Speaking of energy issues, who might be the winners and losers from the current situation in Texas? (17:26);
* What is the most appropriate historical parallel to the current state of the market? (18:52);
* Airlines are "a fantastic idea" but aircraft leasing companies may be even better (25:48);
* Favorite airline leasing companies (32:09) and how to play the "internet of things" and 5G mobile (32:47);
* More information on the guest (41:25);
* "You can't just do the opposite of everybody. You need to have some sort of grounding principle. That principle is valuation to cash." (48:24);
* The Gamestop Game has serious consequences (49:30);
* Could 1970s-era stagflation be in the offing? Schmidt recalls his brief meeting with the late Paul Volcker (52:09);
* The divide between Main Street and Wall Street (56:07).
More Information on the Guest * Website: CFA Society of New York * Twitter: @TheLeoSchmidt (semi-dormant)
Not intended as investment advice.
This episode is brought to you by Merk Research. Visit this link to take advantage of the offer presented on the podcast. To listen without ads or announcements, become a premium subscriber.
Chris Stanton of Sunrise Capital rejoins the podcast to discuss his views of what will upend the raging bull market in risk assets.
Content Segments(Spotify users can click on the timestamp directly to link to the start of the segment) * How we got here: the market price action is similar to late summer, 2019 (3:49); * However, there are some big differences between then and now, starting with volatility (5:44); * What's awry? Two things should have people's attention. One is that the retail market has figured out how to achieve leverage. The second is market structure (10:46); * Big market makers are being eliminated by the day, including hedge funds (16:59); * Where are the investors who have been moving the market? Not in the U.S. (20:38) * Believe it or not, U.S. investors do not appear to be "all in" on the bull market yet (24:48); * Central banks are setting up everybody's portfolio to be long. At the same time passive indexing has eroded cash reserves (29:57); * The "terrible" setup is in place: Vol is elevated against what it has done historically, the market structure is not set up to provide liquidity when it is needed most, and investors are in increasingly crowded trades (37:57); * What ends the bull market? First thing could be a resurfacing of trade tensions with China (45:56); * Vaccines could provide a "straight line" out of the coronavirus crisis, removing the need for ultra-loose interest rate policy (49:00); * It's only going to take one sentence in the Fed minutes to spook markets. Watch for the whole thing to be politicized too (50:49); * The next correction we see is not going to be 5%. "I will bet you it's 15...it's going to scare the living daylights out of you again." (53:39); * Commercial real estate is something else worth watching (57:04); * For now watch for the bull market to run until March. If that happens, short opportunities should be abundant (1:00:01); * Finally, keep an eye out for a currency crisis to trip up investors (1:02:02).
More About The Guest * Website: SunRiseCapital.com * Twitter: @CStantonCIO
Not intended as investment advice. Listeners are advised to do their own research and make their own decisions.
This episode is brought to you by Merk Research. Visit this link to take advantage of the offer presented on the podcast. To listen without ads or announcements, become a premium subscriber.
Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics rejoins the podcast to discuss his view on "policy tremors" that could upend economic and risk asset growth in 2021.
(Barry's dog Oliver makes a brief appearance as well).
Content
(Spotify users can skip directly to the segment by clicking on the timestamp) * The current reflation theme is part of a recovery from what was actually a two-year recession in global manufacturing, trade, and capital spending (4:19);
* The Federal Reserve will initially be pleased with rising inflation, having slayed the deflation boogeyman. This will eventually morph into discomfort (first from regional bank presidents) and concerns that inflation is moving "too far, too fast" (11:43);
* Once this happens, Fed officials will begin discussing "policy normalization" and real rates will start to move, triggering a risk-off event (13:19);
* The Georgia elections the first week of the year were a kind of "sneak preview" of this event, but look to mid-year for the real McCoy (16:37);
* Another important indicator: Watch house prices through the spring selling season (20:40);
* Two details of President-elect Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus proposal that are not fully appreciated by the market (21:41);
* The Democrats will likely ask for more than Republicans are willing to give, triggering reconciliation that would be a rude awakening for the market (28:38);
* If the $1400 stimulus checks go through it may lead to another "speculative blow off" (30:50);
* There is no indication President-elect Biden is willing to roll back tariffs on China, though he could re-engage in TPP. But anybody expecting a broader unwinding of the trade war "is pretty off-base" (33:00);
* Look for further USD weakness, particularly against the yen and the euro (37:57);
* Favorite asset classes for 2021 (41:09)
More About The Guest * Website: IronsidesMacro.Substack.com * Twitter: @BarryKnapp * Podcast
Not intended as investment advice.
This episode is brought to you by Merk Research. Visit this link to take advantage of the offer presented on the podcast. To listen without ads or announcements, become a premium subscriber.
Artem Fokin of Caro-Kann Capital joins the podcast to discuss his strategy of finding compounders in unusual places, specifically those listed on the "wrong" exchanges.
Content Segments
(Spotify users can link to the section directly by clicking on the timestamp) * "What do I mean with the wrong exchange?" (3:42);
* Why would a U.S. company not just list in the U.S.? Isn't there more upside? (7:19);
* Why the Australian exchange is one of the guest's favorites for finding these companies (13:41);
* What are the other criteria he looks for? (22:05);
* What about valuation metrics for choosing an entry point? (31:06);
* Background on the guest (35:05);
* More information about his fund, which also focuses on special situations (37:18);
* The focus has remained consistent, due to core competence (39:35);
* One hidden gem, a portfolio holding, that he discovered recently: a software company with solid growth rate early in its lifecycle that trades in Australia -- and is already profitable (41:19);
* More discussion of the company, its customer base and how that has changed post-COVID (48:52).
More About The Guest * Website: Caro-Kann-Capital.com
Thank you to the sponsor of this episode, Merk Research. Visit this link to take advantage of the offer presented on the podcast. To listen without ads or announcements, become a premium subscriber.
Ryan Worch of Worch Capital joins the podcast to discuss his views that even after the massive post-COVID rally in stocks, the bull market is just getting started.
Content Sections (Spotify users can link to the segment directly by clicking on the timestamp) * The most appropriate historical parallel from a price-pattern standpoint may be 1999 and the massive "tech melt-up" that ended in 2000 (3:21); * "We believe the market is in this secular bull market -- for various reasons," particularly monetary easing. This should "supercharge" a move higher, much as in 1999 (5:35); * The similarities and differences between now and the late 1990s (8:40); * The Fed is "completely transparent these days." They will be forced to raise rates at some point, but the markets may not stop rallying for a while (12:21); * Current excesses are nothing compared to those of the late 1990s. People are still spooked by what happened (16:44); * Background on the guest (22:06); * How he started his fund in 2008 (26:39); * How Worch Capital was able to avoid the February-March correction this year (28:54); * Why he still likes growth, and which sectors (34:54).
For More Information on the Guest * Website: WorchCapital.com * Twitter: @WorchCapital
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Brody Howatt of Bellator Asset Management joins the podcast to discuss his view that the market is getting closer to a "blow off top."
The guest also talks about what it was like working for Steven Cohen at SAC Capital and Point72 before starting his own firm.
Content Segments
(Spotify users can link to the section directly by clicking on the timestamp) * "A lot of it has to do with positioning" -- the major difference from before the election versus now (3:23); * There could be another 5% upside to the S&P, which should be seen as an opportunity to bring down exposure (4:59); * The run-off in Georgia is worth watching (7:17); * Look at illiquid names and potentially "take advantage of the up move to get out" (9:59); * The rotation out of big tech and into small caps has mostly played out already (12:51); * Background on the guest: son of a professional hockey player, Choate, West Point, Iraq, SAC Capital (17:51); * Bellator Asset Management, a veterans-owned business (22:43); * What it was like working for the legendary Steve Cohen, cold trading floor and all (25:15); * More about the Bellator strategy (29:51); * "The syndicate market never sleeps" (34:55).
More Information on the Guest: * Website: BellatorFunds.com
This podcast has ads, thanks to our new partnership with Merk Research. To listen without ads, sign up to become a premium subscriber.
Codie Sanchez of Entourage Effect Capital joins the podcast to discuss her view that wide swaths of the U.S. economy, those linked to small business, have yet to see many benefits of the post-COVID economic recovery.
Eventually, "the music will stop" and stock markets will see more sellers than buyers. To protect themselves, investors should seek recession-resistance sectors of the economy and try to access their own cash flows.
Content Segments
(Spotify users can link to the section directly by clicking on the timestamp) * There is a large segment of the market -- 47 million Americans who are employed by small business -- that has so far been left behind by the post-COVID economic recovery (4:02); * The leading macro and micro trends Sanchez is watching and how they are slowing (6:22); * Other things she watches to gauge small business growth, or in this case contraction (10:09); * All of this creates a buying opportunity for those seeking to gain a foothold in the "mom and pops" of the economy. Even retail investors can gain access (13:48); * Background on the guest (21:42); * The host introduces his three rules for this podcast, one of which is to not to discuss cannabis investing, which is promptly broken -- to get the guest's assessment of this asset class (24:35); * Investing in cannabis via public stock markets (27:20); * Legalization, decriminalization, and how it might happen federally in the U.S. (31:42);
More Information on the Guest:
- Personal Website: CodieSanchez.com
- Firm Website: EntourageEffectCapital.com
- Substack: contrarianthinking.substack.com
- Twitter: @Codie_Sanchez
Become a premium subscriber and get this podcast a day or more before the general public! No ads or announcements either! Contrarian.Supercast.Tech With the Dow Industrial Average hitting 30,000 on the day of this recording, revisiting historical booms and busts feels particularly timely.
Jamie Catherwood, the author of InvestorAmnesia.com and a self-proclaimed financial history nerd, is a perfect guide to this discussion.
We discuss booms in treasure hunting, bicycles, railroads, breweries, and of course tulips (which it turns out was greatly exaggerated. The guest debunks this). Content Segments (Spotify users can click on time stamp to link to the section directly) * What epoch in financial history is perhaps most apt in light of today's period? (3:38);
* How long do these cycles typically last? (12:40);
* Bubbles in transportation technology: bicycles, railroads (twice), now electrical vehicles (16:25);
* "Tulip mania," often cited as the "mother of all financial bubbles" was in reality nowhere near as crazy as commonly believed (18:40 );
* What are common elements that prick bubbles? (27:08);
* The role of central banks and the money supply in the bursting of bubbles (29:59);
* Background on the guest (40:36);
* How he started his website on financial bubble history (45:44)
* Contrarian investors through history (51:59);
* Epilogue: bonus content for supporters of Tottenham Hotspur only (57:05).
More Information on the Guest * Website: InvestorAmnesia.com * Twitter: @InvestorAmnesia * Financial History Course (premium subscribers get 10% off the price).
Become a premium member and receive episodes earlier and without ads or announcements! Sign up here for just $9/month or $99/year.
Theron De Ris of London-based Eschler Asset Management joins the podcast to discuss why now may be an optimal time to invest in shares of precious metals companies and energy concerns.
One of De Ris' favorite stocks -- and primary portfolio holdings -- is discussed at some length in the second half of the program.
Content Segments
(Spotify users can link to the segment directly by clicking on the timestamp) * Why Eschler Asset Management is bullish on precious metals (3:14) and why the pullback could be a buying opportunity for gold equities in particular (8:02);
* The picture for energy and why it is reminiscent of the precious metals industry circa 2015 (9:03);
* Demand from emerging markets, especially China, should persist despite economic difficulties (11:44), nor should renewable energy crimp demand in the short term (13:08);
* Background on the guest and how he got started waiting tables in Frankfurt, Germany (18:03) and eventually started his own fund (23:41);
* His process for finding ideas and picking stocks (26:34);
* How royalty and streaming companies work. Most are focused on precious metals, including Franco-Nevada Corp. (NYSE:FNV), Wheaton Precious Metals (NYSE:WPM), and Royal Gold (NASDAQ:RGLD) (28:00);
* The favorite stock and one of the fund's main holdings: EMX Royalties (NYSE:EMX) (30:07).
Additional Information on the Guest: * Website: EschlerAsset.com; * Twitter: @DeRist2011; * YouTube channel:
Not intended as investment advice.
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Scott Colbert, chief economist at Commerce Trust Company in St. Louis, rejoins the Contrarian Investor Podcast to discuss the state of the economy on the eve of the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
In Colbert's view, the economic recovery is "square root" shaped, with a quick bounce from the bottom followed by "the lazy L that comes after the easy V-part." Politically, he anticipates a Biden victory and return of the Senate to democratic control. This will eventually lead to a higher tax rate for corporations, which together with a coronavirus vaccine will cause a rotation into value stocks.
(Spotify users can access the segment directly by clicking on the corresponding timestamp)
- The current state of the U.S. economy on the eve of the presidential election: "a deep and severe contraction with a pretty significant bounceback that is entirely V-shaped -- at the moment." (3:51);
- The real unemployment rate is about 10% according to Colbert's calculation, almost exactly the same level that it was at the height of the Great Recession (5:21);
- The "final stimulus bridge" is still lacking to get us to where a vaccine can enable a full reopening of the economy (8:18);
- What if there are more serious lockdowns in Europe? (11:32);
- The election: A Biden victory and "blue wave" will return democrat control of the Senate (13:27);
- From an investing perspective, the biggest change (and opportunity) will be taking advantage of a rotation into value stocks (16:50);
- This because democrats will increase corporate taxes, which will disproportionately hurt growth companies (18:59);
- Worst-case scenarios include the deficit (24:56);
- Employment may not grow very quickly. An 8% unemployment rate may still be a year or more away (27:48);
- The firm's asset allocation for 2021 and how that has changed since January (29:11).
Read Colbert's latest presentation here.
Not intended as investment advice.
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Christian Putz is an Austrian-born hedge fund manager currently based in London. His fund has outperformed benchmarks this year during one of the more unpredictable periods in recent memory.
Behind this success is an understanding and appreciation of the big-picture macro environment. Only when that is taken into account does the fund look at individual stocks.
Right now the macro picture is mostly benign with the U.S. election looming. Many sectors remain strong. There are buying opportunities brewing, especially in the oil and gas industry.
Content
(Spotify users can skip to the segment directly by clicking on the timestamp)
- The macro picture versus individual stocks and where things stand right now (7:28);
- Economically, things look rather benign. Buying opportunities may abound in the energy industry especially (13:09);
- Risks "are more to the upside," with steepening yield curve. This may bode well for the financial sector (16:05);
- Recent months have seen a rebound in copper prices. That may be overdone. There is a bear market case to be made post election (18:38);
- Background on the guest (22:39);
- The fund's current portfolio allocation (32:10);
- The benefits of utilities right now (33:42);
For more information on the guest:
- Website: ARRinvestments.com
Not intended as investment advice.
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James Altucher needs to introduction. For several decades he has been an outspoken contrarian on matters ranging from investing to politics, society, entrepreneurialism, and all points in between.
We planned to limit this conversation to investing. That didn't happen. Instead Altucher spoke on a wide range of issues -- including investing -- and introduced some items that he hadn't discussed before publicly.
If you do want to skip to the investing content, it starts at (20:26).
Content Segments
(Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the segment directly)
- We start with a discussion of Altucher's recent controversial articles, about the death of New York and why he's not voting in next month's election (4:21);
- "Why should I have to choose between two different crime families?" (8:57);
- Still, there should be a good turnout this year. Altucher does not expect anybody to follow his lead in not voting -- and is not suggesting they do, anyway (12:57);
- Who he thinks is going to win the election, and why (19:41);
- Views on markets at present (20:26);
- The worst-case scenario for the election and beyond (24:23);
- Muni bonds and closed-end funds: sound boring, but there are opportunities (27:32);
- Additional background on the guest. What were the major turning points in his life and his career? (33:18);
- Warren Buffett, the OG of investing (39:45);
- What are the growth areas he is excited about today? (42:14);
- What to look for, and what to avoid, when it comes to "fallen angels" (46:24);
- His upcoming projects, including a new company that facilitates video and audio streaming, and podcasting (50:35);
- Altucher remains in NYC, despite what media might have reported (53:15)
For More Information on the Guest:
- Website: JamesAltucher.com
- Twitter: @JAltucher
This episode was recorded Sept. 30 and released to premium subscribers on Oct. 1. Become a premium subscriber for just $8/month or $88/year.
David Hunter of Contrarian Macro Advisors rejoins the podcast to update listeners on his vision of a "parabolic melt-up" in risk assets that will presage the next market crash.
What we've seen since late March was not the real melt-up, Hunter says. Most of the gains are still ahead, in fact the coming months should see the final (and most dramatic) period of the rally. Then things get ugly.
Content
(Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the segment directly):
- What we saw in September was a "fake out sell off". We will regroup and see the real meltup later this year (3:25);
- The target for the S&P 500 is still as high as 4,500. The NASDAQ could go as high as 15,000. The final move into the secular top should begin this month and will continue through the election and quite possibly beyond (4:15);
- A new stimulus package by the U.S. Congress may be the catalyst that extinguishes all the bearishness currently seen in the market (6:11);
- The election and its aftermath surely pose a risk. What about the coronavirus? (8:49);
- The Fed could resume stimulus measures as well. Indeed, Powell & Co may have already started (15:11);
- After the melt-up there will be a crash that will be very ugly indeed (17:35);
- A Fed policy misstep will likely be the cause (19:04);
- No, a Biden administration will not likely lead to a new Fed chairman. The crash will unleash additional stimulus and loosening measures by the Fed -- another overreaction -- in the second half of 2021 that will eventually lead to inflation, though not until about 2023 (23:43);
- "This is a call people are going to want to lock me up for...I think you will see potentially a full retrace of the last 40 years of declining inflation and interest rates" (28:45);
- This inflation cycle will result in commodity prices "you can't imagine:" $10,000 gold, $15 copper, $300/barrel oil (29:52);
- Ultimately you may see "a collapse of the entire system" that will make the 1930s "look like a picnic." (38:14)
Find out about David Hunter's newsletter by following him on Twitter @DaveHContrarian and sending him a direct message.
Not intended as investment advice.
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Liz Hall, well known on the Twittersphere as @LizQuidity, joins the podcast to discuss some of her methods for locating the next generation of growth stocks.
Hall doesn't have an investment process per se. She lets investment ideas find her by exploring niche interest and going down "rabbit holes" on YouTube and Reddit.
Content (Spotify users can link to the segment directly by clicking on the timestamp)
- How to let the investment idea "come to you" by locating niche areas of interest at their source (2:38);
- One example from earlier this year: Games Workshop Group (GMWKF), publisher of the Warhammer game (4:34);
- Some more on her research methods (10:48);
- What led her to Nintendo (13:16);
- Background on the guest (17:22);
- Brief discussion of Tesla (TSLA) and Nikola (NKLA) (23:32).
For more on Hall's research process, visit her website LizardBrain.Substack.com
Not intended as investment advice.
Alex Chausovsky of ITR Economics joins the podcast to discuss his view that economic recovery in the U.S. is on firmer footing than widely believed.
Content
(Spotify users can link to the segment directly by clicking on the timestamp)
- Downside risks do exist. Flu season is approaching but the data is painting a more encouraging picture (3:37);
- The top leading indicators are predicting a business cycle rise in 2021, led by the consumer (6:17);
- Employment is a lagging indicator. Other metrics are more telling about the economy's future prospects (9:53);
- The election and how that might impact things (11:50);
- Background on the guest (18:31);
- The prospects for commercial real estate. Is the office doomed? (30:34)
- Current opportunities: Look to the defense sector and export-intensive industries in the U.S. (34:44);
For more information on the guest:
- Twitter: @achausovsky
- Website: ITReconomics.com
Reminder: Become a premium subscriber for just $8/month. Details here
Value Stock Geek, well known on the Twittersphere as @ValueStockGeek, joins the podcast to discuss his concept of the "weird portfolio."
This portfolio allocates to gold and real estate as well as stocks and Treasuries.
The guest also revisits his prediction from his first visit to the podcast last year, when he said retail stocks were undervalued.
The paper explaining this concept in more detail can be read in its entirety here.
Content Segments
(Spotify users can link to the segment by clicking on the timestamp):
- Background on constructing the "weird portfolio" (3:04);
- How exactly is the portfolio allocated? (5:14);
- Is gold still an effective disaster hedge? (8:55);
- The equity portion of the portfolio (14:02);
- What makes up the small-cap value portion? (17:04);
- Is there really enough diversification offered by international equities over their U.S. counterparts? (19:03);
- How the real estate allocation is accomplished (21:05);
- Revisiting the contrarian calls from last summer (27:17).
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University of Oxford economist John Kay joins the podcast to discuss his recent book, "Radical Uncertainty" and its lessons for financial markets in the age of COVID-19.
Content (Spotify users can skip to the segment by clicking on the timestamp):
- The premise for the book: Frank Knight, Milton Friedman and the pendelum of probabilistic reasoning (1:20);
- It is "almost impossible to overstate" the influence of efficient market reasoning on economic and financial market models (4:02);
- Radical uncertainty: There is a great deal of information that cannot be realistically thought about probabilistically. Enter COVID-19 (8:20);
- What's an investor to do with this information? (10:15);
- Financial modeling has conflated risk, uncertainty, and volatility. They aren't the same thing (12:53);
- Time horizons and the importance of imagination. Humans are natural story tellers. This is more important than pure maths (20:24);
- Where does real estate fit? (25:25);
- Background on the guest (30:28);
- What is the market getting wrong right now? (34:37);
- Short discussion of the U.S. election (41:04).
More Information on the Guest
- Website: JohnKay.com
- Twitter: @ProfJohnKay
- Book: Radical Uncertainty: Decision-making for an unknowable future (also available on Amazon).
Not intended as investment advice.
Genna Lozovsky of Sandglass Capital Management joins the podcast to discuss investing in emerging markets distressed debt and credit.
Sandglass Capital invests in sovereign and corporate credit across global EM, typically seeking to be a liquidity provider "at prices that we think significantly underestimate the recovery potential of those assets."
Highlights (Spotify users can skip to the segment directly by clicking on the timestamp):
- Short background on emerging markets and how we arrived at the current situation (2:03);
- What to look for in terms of entry points for investments (4:53);
- The fund's involvement in Argentina (10:00);
- Where is Sandglass looking to invest now? (15:05);
- Background on the guest (20:32);
- Investing in local currency versus USD-denominated paper (22:55);
- What kind of information does a fund like this look for? (26:07);
- What's the typical holding period for these investments? (29:05);
Additional Information on the Guest
- Website: SandglassCapital.com;
- LinkedIn page;
Not intended as investment advice.
Eric Chung, chief investment officer of Lighthaven Capital Management, joins the podcast to discuss his view that math, financial models, and algorithms are insufficient when it comes to investing.
"The widespread use of math in the investment management industry, while it can be helpful ... I think there's been some pretty significant overreliance on these things," says Chung.
Content Highlights (Spotify users can skip to the segment by clicking on the timestamp):
- The example of Long Term Capital Management and how it got him to take notice (2:41);
- Not enough has been written about the fallacy risk parity (13:59);
- Background on the guest (24:36);
- Lighthaven Capital's investing strategy (28:30);
- Chung's decision to de-risk the portfolio in Q1 (31:49);
- The "external, exogenous factors" that go into his risk models (34:59);
- A Joseph Biden presidency and what it could mean for markets (37:39);
- What is the market getting wrong right now? (39:05);
- Contrarian opinion on the potential Biden administration's stance toward China (46:42);
- Reasons for optimism (49:49).
More Information on the Guest:
- Website: LightHavenCapital.com
- Video about CV-19 that was trending on LinkedIn:
- Twitter: @LighthavenFund
- Eric Chung on LinkedIn
- YouTube channel
Not intended as investment advice.
The evolution of media has led to a "disconnect" between the reality of coronavirus and public perception of the pandemic, according to Enrique Abeyta of Empire Financial Research.
"We are on the precipice of COVID almost being over, or functionally as a major impact on society, mortality, etc.," says Abeyta. This, along with unprecedented liquidity injections by the Federal Reserve, will lead to a melt-up in global financial markets.
Highlights (Spotify users can link to the segment directly by clicking on the timestamp)
- The disconnect in popular political and economic analysis and the actual situation with COVID in the U.S. (4:38);
- Look at the numbers in aggregate; they are clearly declining (8:52);
- The war on COVID is almost over and the coronavirus could effectively be over "in six weeks" (12:52);
- What does all this mean for investors? Look at gyms and movie theaters (16:07);
- A simple options strategy to play the coming melt-up that looks a lot like 1999 (18:07);
- Three contrarian views and why the coming melt-up will be the best investing and trading environment in a generation (24:48);
- Background on the guest (27:33);
- How do you get your ideas? (39:28);
- The "V-word" and why it doesn't matter and doesn't work (41:10);
- The case for Match.com (42:48);
- "Shorting sucks" (45:04);
- Asset management is a religion (49:21);
- Short discussion of risks (51:12).
More Information on the Guest
- Website: EmpireFinancialResearch.com;
- Twitter: @EnriqueAbeyta.
Not intended as investment advice.
Siddarth Singhai of Ironhold Capital joins the podcast to discuss his views of semiconductor manufacturers and auto parts suppliers. He also shares his bullish views on industry sectors in his native India.
Content Segments (Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the section directly):
- Singhai's look at the macro situation with COVID (3:27);
- The cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry (5:59);
- Long-term prospects are "fantastic," and the macroeconomic environment should allow for the opportunity to build positions (8:06);
- Electrical cars will provide a tailwind to auto manufacturers (10:40);
- Background on the guest (13:52);
- The most profitable industry in India (17:19);
- Favorite ideas in semiconductor suppliers (27:04);
- Favorite ideas in automotive suppliers (32:14).
More Information on the Guest:
- Ironhold Capital is a value-based hedge fund in New York focused on leveraging both the Indian and U.S. markets. Its priority is to preserve capital, which is accomplished by buying high quality businesses with no leverage for cheap, followed by layers of risk management.
- Website: IronholdCapital.com
- YouTube Channel: Leaders in Business and Investing
- Podcast: via Spotify and Apple Podcasts
Not intended as investment advice.
David Neuhauser of Livermore Partners joins the podcast to discuss his expectation of a "L-shaped" economic recovery and corresponding sideways market activity in the years to come.
There are still opportunities for investors. Here Neuhauser is bullish on certain companies tied to hard assets like oil and copper.
Content (Spotify listeners can click on the timestamp to link to the section directly)
- The "best days" of the market rally have likely passed (3:00), expect more rangebound markets in the short run (4:24);
- What this period of low growth means for markets in the medium term (8:16);
- What it means to be a contrarian today (9:39);
- Background on the guest (12:11);
- How he spends his time in terms of activist situations (17:40);
- More specifics on opportunities in energy markets. Hint: it's not in shale (20:31);
- Concerns about the demand picture? (24:09);
- There will be a "massive reset" in markets and fundamentals will take hold, causing "further grinding" to the downside, especially amid high-priced securities (26:45);
- Neuhauser's process for finding opportunities (27:46).
For more information on the guest:
- Website: LivermorePartners.com
- Twitter: @LivermoreOps
- Video of presentation at Contrarian Investor Virtual Conference No. 2
Not intended as investment advice.
Jonathan Boyar, principal at Boyar Value Group, joins the podcast to discuss the merits of investing in the public equity of professional sports teams.
Boyar is specifically bullish on the Liberty Braves Group (NASDAQ: BATRA), a tracking stock that consists of the Atlanta Braves Major League Baseball team and real estate development.
Content Segments (Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the segment directly):
- Sports teams as investments and two that have the guest's attention at present (3:34);
- Liberty Braves discussion (5:50);
- Why now? "You're at a point of maximum pessimism," with MLB specifically (8:24);
- The opportunity brought by sports gambling (14:06);
- Background on the guest (16:38);
- The Boyar Value Group's investing style (19:15) and recent purchase of Twitter (20:50);
- The makeup of the firm's portfolio and how it deviates from the S&P 500 (24:22);
- The opportunity with Hanesbrands (26:40).
For more information on the guest:
- Website: BoyarValueGroup.com
- Twitter: @BoyarValue
- Video of presentation at Contrarian Investor Virtual Conference No. 2
Not intended as investment advice.
Hedge fund portfolio manager Chris Nicholson joins the podcast to discuss his outlook on volatility, interest rates, and other markets.
Forecasting these assets has become increasingly problematic in recent years, but there are a few thing Nicholson looks to in an effort to identify opportunities for arbitrage.
Content (Spotify listeners can skip to the segment directly by clicking on the timestamp):
- U.S. equity prices are determined largely by two axes (3:40);
- Inflation expectations have been, well, inflated. This speaks for the relative value of certain bonds (7:03);
- What drives inflation anyway? (11:38);
- Where to look in currencies (19:05);
- Nicholson's Number One recommendation for investors: take the cheap borrow. Where to put it is the question (21:40);
- Sometimes being contrarian is not the smart move. This may be one of those times, at least in FX markets (23:38);
- China and the yuan versus the Japanese yen (29:24);
- Equity markets in the U.S. and Japan (33:06);
- The portfolio manager's concern about a second wave of COVID (35:40);
- Other issues that could be catalysts in 2020 (40:39);
- How to trade these views (46:18);
For more information on the guest:
- Twitter: @2Christopher
- LinkedIn: ChrisNicholson
Not intended as investment advice
Gabriel Grego of Quintessential Capital joins the podcast to discuss his short activist strategy.
Grego finds three or four "high conviction" ideas to trade a year. His process is exhaustive but straightforward, though few managers have the stomach to replicate it. The reasons for this are discussed in the second half of the podcast.
Content (Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the start of the segment)
- How it all starts. Finding the right target is crucial. Grego's focus on "extreme corporate catastrophic situations" (1:39);
- Some of the typical "red flags" to look for (3:43);
- Trendy industries are often clusters for fraudulent behavior. COVID-19 is the most recent example (6:01);
- Narrowing the target list and creating a thesis (10:37);
- The final step: "boots on the ground" research (16:46);
- Background on the guest (21:57);
- Activist shorting is "scary stuff" (25:38);
- More terrifying than being a paratrooper? (27:29);
- Background on QCM's fund and current exposure (30:28);
- How QCM has dealt with the events of 2020, including a rare (and successful) attempt to time markets in March (34:05);
- Chinese companies traded in the U.S. look "very very interesting," though Chinese fraud is "a different beast" (42:14).
More Information on the Guest:
- Website: QCMFunds.com
- Twitter: @QCMFunds
- Email tips to info@qcmfunds.com
- Watch Grego's presentation on Akazoo at the Inaugural Contrarian Investor Virtual Conference
Not intended as investment advice.
Vitaliy Katsenelson of ContrarianEdge.com joins the podcast to discuss his current views on markets and his recent thesis on automakers.
That industry has been disrupted by the entrance of Tesla. Other industries face a similar fate and Katsenelson discusses some of the winners and losers.
Content Segments
(Spotify users can click on the timestamp to reach the segment directly)
- The automotive industry faces an "unstoppable" tsunami and Tesla is at the forefront (1:58)
- Tesla as "iphone"-type disrupter (7:27)
- What other companies are exciting? Recent investment Twitter (14:12)
- Value versus growth: Knowledge is cumulative (16:07)
- Background on the guest (22:08)
- Views on coronavirus (28:39)
- Makeup of the portfolio and one notable recent addition (33:58)
For More Information on the Guest:
- Website: ContrarianEdge.com and its audio equivalent, Investor.fm
- Twitter: @VitaliyK
- Investment service IMA
- "Why The Survival Of Traditional Carmakers Is Far From Certain": link to paper
Not intended as investment advice.
Dexter Roberts joins the podcast to discuss his book "The Myth of Chinese Capitalism."
In Roberts' view, economic reforms have already been curtailed under current political leadership. China's middle class, which has grown almost exponentially in recent decades, remains limited mostly to large coastal cities. The rural countryside, which still represents half the country's population, remains well below the middle class -- and is stuck there, in part due to outdated demographic policies.
The options for Chinese policymakers are limited. They have so far not managed to spread the wealth effects of their "pivot" to a services-based economy, and may have even exacerbated the problem. This all has wide-ranging consequences: for China, for western companies, and for the world.
Content Segments
(Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the section directly)
- The first myth: capitalism as short hand for economic reforms (5:39)
- The second key myth: the middle class will inexorably continue to grow larger (6:35)
- The global supply-chain diversification, started several years ago and exacerbated by COVID-19, is effectively ending China's "factory to the world" model (9:21)
- Authorities' options are very limited (10:45)
- Where does this leave Chinese consumers? The days of western companies expanding sales through the growth of China's middle class are gone (13:10)
- Background on the gust (20:15)
- What might the future of China hold? (25:09) The possibility of social unrest (27:14)
- Brief discussion of Hong Kong: "Don't think that the protests are over." (30:22)
For More Information on the Guest:
- Website: DexterRoberts.com
- Twitter: @DTiffRoberts
- The Myth of Chinese Capitalism: The Worker, the Factory, and the Future of the World (Amazon page)
Christopher Brown of Aristides Capital joins the podcast to discuss his investment strategy, which has produced positive returns every calendar year since 2008.
In Brown's view, healthcare and information technology stocks should not be treated as defensive investments that will protect portfolios in times of stress -- especially after their recent run-up. There are reasons many companies in this sector are overvalued and could see their shares drop as the economy begins to see further difficulties from coronavirus.
Aristides Capital has an active short book, which framed most of the second half of the conversation.
Content Segments:
(Spotify users can link to the segment directly by clicking on the timestamp)
- Why investors' thinking about defensive stocks may be misguided (4:49)
- Growth stocks' recent performance is reminiscent of the late-1990s tech bubble (7:05)
- The concerns with healthcare stocks (11:45)
- Background on the guest (15:07)
- Some of the red flags short sellers look for and why the "big picture" is often more pertinent (20:22)
- Inovio Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: INO) discussion (22:52)
- CytoDyn Inc. (OTC: CYDY) discussion (25:44)
- Vuzix Corp. (NASDAQ: VUZI) discussion (28:37)
- Accelerate Diagnostics (NASDAQ: AXDX) discussion (30:59)
- Insider purchases are not always a bullish indicator (35:02)
- Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) discussion, at the guest's suggestion (host didn't want to go there originally) and why it could be an indicator for future market direction (36:17)
- Reasons to be bearish on markets and the economy (39:17)
- How to protect your portfolio against inflation (42:13)
For more information on the guest:
- Website: AristidesCapital.com
- Twitter: @MidwestHedgie
Not intended as investment advice.
Chad Glauser of Denver-based Alpine Quantitative Management joins the podcast to discuss his fund's strategy of using just three ETFs as a way to manage risk, gauge volatility, and produce returns.
The three ETFs track short-term Treasuries, long-term bonds, and the S&P 500. Alpine has been actively trading the strategy since late 2017 after an incubation period of about two years. The approach has worked, with the fund beating the hedge fund index for 22 straight months (and counting).
Content:
(Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the segment in question)
- About the strategy: quick background and using volatility as an indicator (1:10)
- The "real-world example" of what happened in January and February, and how the fund adopted (2:42)
- How often, and quickly, the portfolio adjusts and why it is 100% allocated at all times (4:39)
- The current view of markets (5:46)
- Why Alpine views itself as the "anti-quant" quant (9:04)
- Background on Chad Glauser (12:35)
- How to get in touch (20:04)
For more information on the guest:
- Alpine Quantitative Management website: Alpine-Quant.com
- Chad Glauser's LinkedIn
Not intended as investment advice.
Maya Joelson, founder and president of Metapoint Advisors, joins the podcast to discuss her view of exchange-traded funds.
These instruments are seen as efficient and cheap ways for investors, especially retail investors, to gain access to various asset classes. But this is misguided, especially when it comes to ETFs tracking bond markets. Even stock ETFs aren't always a good idea. Investors are better served picking individual securities themselves (or hiring somebody to do it for them).
Content
(Spotify listeners can click on the timestamp to link to the start of the segment)
- A short history on the rise of ETFs in the U.S. (2:10)
- Why bond ETFs don't make as much sense as equity ETFs (6:49)
- How long before investors get wise to this? (10:41)
- What about stock ETFs, how efficient are they? (15:20)
- Background on the guest (20:24)
- "Better Safe Than SARS-y": Looking back on the call to derisk portfolios in early February and where we are now (25:43)
- Buy stocks that should do well in this environment: consumer staples, healthcare, Kraft Heinz, Chewy (29:53)
For more information on the guest:
- Website: MetaPointAdvisors.com
- Twitter: @MMetapoint
- Link to research publications discussed on the podcast:
- Strategic Single Stock Investing: Now is the Time to Refine Your Portfolio
- Better Safe Than SARS-y: Understanding The Risks of Staying Invested
Not intended as investment advice
David Hunter, chief macro strategist at Contrarian Macro Advisors, has for some time predicted a final "melt up" stage of the market cycle before markets crash.
This stage is now underway as markets recover from an initial sell-off caused by the coronavirus (which Hunter admits he did not and could not have predicted).
What comes next is a "secular top that I expect to be the high-water mark for decades to come," he says. After markets peak around late summer, a "global deflationary bust" will ensue, with as much as 80% downside for equities.
Content:
(Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the segment directly):
- Target of 4,000 for the S&P as part of "the final melt up" (2:23)
- The downside target. Forget the "reset narrative" in the short term (10:39). Markets should drop by 80% from the top (11:58)
- Unprecedented leverage doesn't leave policymakers much time (14:09)
- Background on David: 47 years in financial markets (18:46)
- The current crisis in historical context (26:35)
- Deflation allows for liquidity injections. Until it creates inflation (32:01)
- Discussing the potential political and social fallout from the coming economic crisis (36:12)
- How deflation will eventually turn to inflation (40:20)
- Discussion of the U.S. dollar's reserve currency status (45:56)
- Bullish outlook for gold and silver (51:37)
For more information on the guest:
- Twitter: @DaveHContrarian
Not intended as investment advice.
Hedi Ben Mlouka joins the podcast to discuss his views of frontier markets in light of the coronavirus crisis.
Ben Mlouka has been investing in frontier markets for more than a decade as CIO and CEO of Dubai-based FIM Partners. He sees the asset class in general as being at greater risk of being impacted by fallout from the COVID-19 epidemic. The political risks are particularly vexxing.
Content segments:
(Spotify users can skip to the section by clicking on the timestamp)
- Is this a good time to be investing in frontier markets? (6:03)
- The first part of the equation: Frontier markets are less prepared for the coronavirus than developed markets (7:05)
- The impact will be larger from a healthcare perspective while the policy response can be expected to be weaker, especially in fragile economies (9:56)
- The crisis will expose the "downside of globalization," precluding a "V-shaped" recovery (11:30)
- Where are the opportunities? Oil importers like Pakistan and Egypt can benefit (15:26)
- Speaking oil, forget about the demand shock for now. Oil prices should recover to $50 or $60 per barrel (18:57)
- Beyond the macro picture, industries with access to capital are preferred. Avoid travel, hospitality, banks. (21:07)
- Healthcare, education, retail, and consumer discretionary companies should recover over the long term (23:56)
- Political risk is a major concern for many countries in frontier markets. Who's most vulnerable? (31:09)
More information on the guest:
- FIM Partners website
Not intended as investment advice.
Rachel Ziemba, a geo-economic and country risk expert, joins the podcast to discuss the continuing, and intensifying economic impact from the coronavirus.
It's become clear that the crisis has caused a demand shock that will likely bring "rolling recessions" in its wake. The most likely scenario appears to be for a "W-shaped" recovery. In the meantime, there is still a lot that go wrong.
Content Segments
(Spotify users can click on time stamp to link to section directly)
- The demand shock, shift in demand, and rolling recessions (4:27)
- Unique characteristics of the coronavirus crisis (7:57)
- Oil and oil-producing countries may be at most risk. Sino-U.S. relations can be expected to suffer (16:35)
- Background on the guest (25:55)
- Discussion of historical parallels: some similarities, but there is no precedent (30:16)
- The unlikely prospect of a "V-shaped" recovery (36:26)
- How deep might the trough be? (39:55)
- Are there any safe harbors from this? (47:57)
For more information on the guest:
- Website: ZiembaInsights.com
- Twitter: @REZiemba
Not intended as investment advice.
Dr. Robert Bednarz joins the podcast to provide his professional opinion on the coronavirus: Just how serious of a health crisis is COVID-19? And how long might it persist until economies around the world can spring to life again?
Dr. Bednarz records from his home in Dundee, Scotland, where he is currently under self-quarantine. Unlike typical guests on this podcast, he has no experience or knowledge of investing or the economy. To that effect, this episode contains no stock picks or tangible views on economics. However, the medical view he supplies is certainly valuable for all members of the investing community.
Content
(Spotify users can skip to the segment by clicking on the time stamp in question)
- What is happening in Italy can happen anywhere (2:43)
- The cases and fatalities in Scotland and how hospitals are dealing with the effects (5:47)
- Hope relies on the local communities and people should "just stay home" (8:04)
- The chances of a mutation of the virus exist, but it is unlikely to be more lethal than the current iteration (10:41)
- Warmer weather should help (13:39)
- The worst case scenario scaring medical professionals (15:31)
- What medicines are being used for treatments? Antivirals show some promise (19:30)
- Masks are useful only for those with symptoms. But buyer beware (23:23)
For more information on the guest:
- Dr. Bednarz hosts a podcast, The Patient Will See You Now, available on all podcasting platforms, including iTunes and Spotify
- Twitter: @Robert_Bednarz
Not intended as investment advice.
Marc Chandler, a political economist and currently managing partner at Bannockburn Global Forex, joins the podcast to provide his assessment of the coronavirus impact on the global economy.
Content:
(Spotify users can click on the timestamp to link to the segment)
- This crisis is different, not brought about by the economic cycle but by an exogenous shock (3:15)
- Assessing the fiscal and monetary response by policymakers (4:36)
- Will there be a "V-shaped" recovery? (6:55)
- Recovery in Q3, Q4, but growth will be limited (12:07)
- The crisis may accelerate the move to a cashless society (13:12)
- Background on the guest (17:43)
- What's something the market is missing? (27:39)
- The Age of Surplus (34:13)
- Greater accountability for the Federal Reserve (38:21)
- The crisis could result in expansion to enfranchisement. To 16-year olds? (43:21)
For more information on the guest:
- Website: MarcToMarket.com
- Twitter: @MarcMakingSense
- Bannockburn Global Forex LLC website
Not intended as investment advice.
Kirill Zadov, political analyst at Russian-language radio station RUSA Radio, joins the podcast in this special episode to discuss the recent sell-off in oil prices.
Zadov has some unique insights into the Russian oil economy and the political economy of the Middle East. His prediction: Saudi Arabia and Russia will have to come together to agree to output cuts, and soon. How low will oil go in the interim? Here too Zadov has some views.
Segments:(Spotify listeners can skip to sections by clicking on the time stamp)
- What's motivating Russia on their decision to not cut output? (4:02)
- Why Russia and Saudi Arabia need to cut output, and soon (7:07)
- What other countries in the region are affected by this? (9:19)
- How long will it take for Russia and Saudi Arabia to agree to cuts? (10:28)
- Background on the guest (11:35)
- How low will oil prices go? (13:26)
For more information on the guest:
- Soundcloud
- Twitter: @KirillZadov
- RUSA Radio
Not intended as investment advice.
Tobias Carlisle, founder of Acquirers Fund LLC, is well known in value investing circles. He defends this method while also pointing to the short opportunities that have emerged recently.
Where the macro picture is concerned, the coronavirus is still front and center. Here Carlisle expects corporate earnings to be impacted and doesn't anticipate central banks being able to help much. (This podcast was recorded before the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point cut announcement on March 3).
Highlights:
- The case for value investing (4:28)
- Coronavirus and the impact on supply chains (7:36) and how the market will react this year (8:47)
- The fund's short position in Tesla (12:58)
- Favorite contrarian ideas right now, including short Etsy (21:25)
- Exposure to energy (27:15)
More information on the guest:
- AcquirersMultiple.com for podcasts and other materials;
- AcquirersFunds.com for information on the firm;
- AcquirersFund.com for information about the fund;
- Fund ticker: ZIG
- Twitter: @Greenbackd
Not intended as investment advice.
Philip Reade, founder and managing partner at Helm Investment Partners, joins the podcast to discuss his approach to crisis investing on a global basis.
Reade does not follow the "buy when everybody else panics" maxim. Instead, he searches first for a country that is emerging from a crisis and then buys that market's largest, most liquid public equities. Helm Investment Partners seeks to capture shifts in the "psychological cycle" where the perception of a market changes.
Content:
- Reade's approach and how it's different from value investing (1:12)
- Identifying buying opportunities (5:35)
- Timing the purchases is just as important as identifying the opportunity (15:30)
- Some of the firms' investments in 2019 (19:09)
- When to sell positions (20:30)
- Reade's "origin story" of how he came to investing (23:51)
- Where are the opportunities now? (30:30) Greece (31:29), Turkey (32:09), Chile (33:36), Pakistan (35:04)
- China and the coronavirus (37:57)
- Potential future investment targets in Egypt, Mexico, Argentina (39:25)
- Why there is still upside in Greece (42:42)
For more information about Philip Reade and Helm Investment Partners, visit HelmIP.com.
Not intended as investment advice.
Gregory Obenshain, director of credit at Verdad Capital, joins the podcast to discuss his concerns about private credit investing.
Obenshain and Verdad Capital founder Dan Rasmussen recently penned an article in Institutional Investor: "High-Yield Was Oxy. Private Credit Is Fentanyl." Subtitle: "Investors are hooked, and it won't end well."
In this 29-minute conversation, Obenshain tells listeners about his thesis.
Content:
- How private equity has become the dominant player in this market (4:02)
- The lending is a lot more dangerous and indeed riskier than the high-yield bond market (7:39)
- Obenshain's background (15:03)
- Historical returns for private credit investments (19:50)
- Ramifications of new lenders entering the market (22:22)
- Potential timing of an unwind (24:17)
- More constructive ideas for investors (25:27)
For more information on the guest and his firm: VerdadCap.com
Not intended as investment advice.
January 2020 has been an eventful month. Geopolitical events and other exogenous factors have roiled global financial markets. In the end, they may not matter all that much where the trajectory of the global economy is concerned. In fact, they may not matter at all.
Nicholas Reece of Merk Research shares his thesis that there is a "subtle fallacy" that events in the news are important to the global economy and financial markets. This is due to evolutionary biography, behavioral biases, and the nature of the news business in the digital age.
In a wide-ranging conversation, Reece tells listeners how to cut through the noise to identify data that has real economic repercussions. One conclusion is that in 2020 (at least so far) to be a contrarian means being optimistic.
Content:
- The "subtle fallacy" of news (1:32)
- Humankind's innate negativity bias (2:43)
- So what news is relevant to the economy and to markets? (4:09)
- Discerning the signal from the noise for investors (5:50)
- Economic damage from the coronavirus (7:53)
- "Unknown unknowns" (9:32)
- Nick Reece's "origin story" as an investor (12:41)
- The changing public perception of the Federal Reserve (20:30)
- Being positive is contrarian (26:21)
- A short discourse on political commentary (27:25)
- Favorite economic indicators that can supply contrarian signals (30:19)
For more information about Nick Reece and Merk Research, visit their website.
Economist and energy specialist Peter Sainsbury joins the podcast to discuss his thesis, that the fossil fuel industry faces a dilemma similar to what confounded big tobacco a generation ago.
Oil companies in particular are starting to be seen as "sin stocks" with institutions divesting themselves on ethical grounds. Much like tobacco companies reinvented themselves in the 1990s, energy companies can undergo a similar renaissance. Indeed the process of oil companies divesting harmful assets is already underway. This causes opportunities for investors. But first, expect headwinds.
Content:
- Peter Sainsbury introduces his thesis (1:59)
- The impact on energy companies' share prices (8:16)
- What about alternate energy? (10:27)
- Background on the guest (15:58) and other areas of interest, including gold and gold miners (18:15)
- Palladium may be frothy. One little-known indicator worth tracking (23:16)
- Potential catalysts for supply-side disruption in energy markets (27:08)
For more information on Peter Sainsbury:
- Visit his website, Materials-Risk.com
- Follow him on Twitter
- Check out his books, Commodities, 50 Things You Really Need to Know and Crude Forecasts: Predictions, Pundits and Profits in the Commodity Casino
Not intended as investment advice.
Chris Stanton, chief investment officer at Sunrise Capital, rejoins the podcast to discuss his bearish views on the market at the start of 2020.
There are reasons to believe a market correction is overdue, Stanton says. Risk is everywhere: geopolitical, volatility, repo markets. A drop of 18% to 20% can be expected before March 31.
Highlights:
- "Rest assured, we're heading for a correction and I would argue it's going to be terrifying when it comes" (5:43)
- The "Phase 1" deal with China is a temporary measure that will be revoked if Donald Trump wins reelection in November (9:55)
- A likely catalyst for a correction is in the repo market (11:36)
- A "volatility-led sell off" is likely before the end of the first quarter (16:12)
- Where's inflation? (26:34)
- It may not take an actual headline for investors to decide equities are overbought (31:01)
- Background on Stanton's firm, San Diego-based Sunrise Capital (38:03)
- The "origin story": Background on Stanton himself (53:03)
- What should retail investors do, right now? (1:02:49)
Not intended as investment advice.
For more information on Sunrise Capital: www.sunrisecapital.com
Lukasz Tomicki of LRT Capital Management joins the podcast to discuss his investing strategy and ideas for 2020.
Contents: The case for Russian natural gas companies (3:05) and healthcare stocks (5:28). What's to like about UnitedHealth (9:24). Background on Tomicki (13:48). Handicapping the 2020 US presidential election (20:50). The outlook for growth in the US (23:01).
Austin, Tex.-based LRT Capital is a long-biased, concentrated equity fund started by Tomicki in 2012. For more on LRT Capital, visit the firm's website.
Nicholas Shaxson, author of The Finance Curse, joins the podcast to discuss his thesis, that the financial sector is at the root of many problems facing economies and society, and where to look for possible solutions.
Content
- The paradox: Too much finance can make you poorer (1:47)
- How did we get here? (3:11)
- Angola as the genesis of the finance curse concept (7:58)
- Rising inequality. Where might solutions lie? (14:11)
- Debunking private equity (18:34)
- Antitrust solutions may be the answer (27:06)
- What sectors are most at risk? (33:19)
For More Information
- The Finance Curse book website, including ordering information
- (Or just go to the Amazon page directly)
- Nick's Twitter account
- Nick's Guardian articles
- Nicholas Shaxson Wikipedia page
The collective mood and risk appetite of investors may be turning more cautious, but this makes for a more optimistic outlook for risk assets. The author of the Demonetized Blog (and corresponding Twitter account) joins the podcast to discuss this concept and what it means for the economy and markets going forward.
Content:
- Investor surveys as contrarian indicators (2:40) and the "basic principle" that broader conservative positioning makes for bullishness (5:13)
- Nick's "origin story" as an investor (13:36)
- Timing is everything. How much longer does this bull market have to run? (17:45)
- Interest rates should stay low indefinitely (20:37) and the economy is not facing an imminent recession (22:00)
- Prospects of a new president in the U.S. (24:12)
- What this all means for asset allocation (26:05) and why investors should keep wary of inflation (28:25)
Not intended as investment advice.
Andrew Redleaf is best known as the founder of Whitebox Advisors, a hedge fund that at its peak managed $6 billion. He joins the podcast to discuss his thesis that the world is increasingly bifurcated between those who have access to cheap capital and those who do not.
Content:
The contrarian take on low interest rates (2:33). Who has access to capital (5:16)? Small banks an outlier (7:28). The macro outlook (9:02). Andrew's "origin story" (12:10). Cultural elements of financial markets (19:11). Biggest concerns facing markets and best ideas (23:20).
Not intended as investment advice.
Nancy Davis of Quadratic Capital joins the podcast to discuss the danger of interest rate volatility risk.
The market is at "peak confidence of central banks being able to control markets" (2:27), as evidenced by the historic low in all gauges of interest rate volatility (5:36). The risks of stagflation (8:37) and a trade war with Europe (10:16) are similarly discounted.
Background on Nancy (14:39), further information on her fund (17:23), why gold is an ineffective inflation hedge (22:05).
Peter Borish is a founding partner at Tudor Investment Corp and current chief strategist at Quad Group. In his long career on Wall Street, Borish has seen multiple market cycles and met with and allocated to many hedge fund managers. He shares his wisdom with listeners.
Content:
The need for active management in today's market (6:23). A contrarian view on ego (8:35). State of the economic cycle and deflationary pressures (10:29), political realities (14:26), concepts to keep in mind for the long run (16:31). What to look for in an investment adviser and hedge fund manager (20:46). The current state of hedge fund talent (22:57). Areas for concern in the macro picture (26:45) and possible inflection points (29:18).
Not intended as investment advice.
More information on Peter Borish and Quad Group: www.quadgroup.com
Adam Johnson of Bullseye Brief joins the podcast to discuss his optimistic views on the US economy. He supplies ideas for stocks to take advantage of this situation, and talks about his background and how he came to start his investing service.
Content:
Labor markets, consumer spending speak to strong economic currents in the US (0:46). The bullish case for financial stocks (2:55) and United Rentals (6:04). Semiconductors should do well (9:49). Adam's background and how he came to start Bullseye Brief (14:23). Ideas in biotechs (19:07).
More information about Bullseye Brief: www.bullseyebrief.com
Rupal J. Bhansali joins the podcast to discuss her just-published book "Non-Consensus Investing: Being Right When Everyone Else is Wrong."
Ms. Bhansali is the chief investment officer, international and global equities, at Ariel Investments in New York. Over the course of the conversation she explains why she wrote the book, some of its most valuable lessons for stock analysts, and why investors should eschew FAANG stocks for a new acronym: MANG (Michelin, Ahold, NTT Docomo, Glaxosmithkline).
Skip to segments:
The need for developing non-consensus views (2:20), focusing on balance-sheet risk rather than earnings (3:50), "kicking the can down the road" is not an option (6:27), FAANG vs. MANG (7:27), a special message to young women (12:20)
More information on the book: https://cup.columbia.edu/book/non-consensus-investing/9780231192309
Maj Soueidan, co-founder of GeoInvesting LLC, joins the podcast to discuss his approach to microcap investing and his process for sourcing ideas before concluding with one of his favorite stock picks at the time of the recording.
Content: The case for microcaps (1:25), how to find ideas (5:14), sectors (9:04), monitoring and holding periods (10:08), catalysts and "problems" (12:30), an illustrative case study (15:10), Maj's background and how he came about microcap investing (18:43), more about GeoInvesting (24:19), current idea: Rand Worldwide Inc. (26:09), how to find more information (37:14).
David Hunter, Chief Macro Strategist at Contrarian Macro Advisors, discusses the current state of the economic cycle and why risk assets have a final upleg left before the onset of the bear market.
Content:
The Federal Reserve is behind the curve of the economy (2:00), the coming bust (5:00), predictions for bond prices (8:15), the final "melt up" and why it will be "parabolic" (12:29), echoes of 1982 (16:50), the 2020 bear market (19:34) and recovery, which will bring the first inflationary cycle since the 1970s (21:21), favorite places to be in terms of investments (26:45), $10 oil (30:00)
Not intended as investment advice.
Follow David on Twitter
Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics joins the podcast to discuss the 2-year/10-year yield curve inversion. The gauge is viewed as a harbinger of recession and while global trade has clearly slowed, the U.S. economy should not necessarily see any ill effects in the immediate future, says Knapp.
Content: The 3-month/10-year yield curve versus the 2-year/10-year (2:52), for historical precedence see Japan in the early 2000s (7:50), recession in global trade but not in the U.S. (8:42), positives for the U.S. economy (13:00).
For more information on our guest: https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com/
Denise K Shull joins the podcast to argue against the platitude that emotions have no place in investing. Identifying and managing emotions does not only play an integral role in investing, but can in fact hold one of the keys to succeeding at all levels of money management -- and elsewhere.
Denise was one of the key inspirations for the Wendy Rhoades character on Billions, the Showtime program that just completed its fourth season.
Content: The place of emotions in investing (0:20), examples of red flags (2:48), structuring a dataset of emotional reactions (6:35), gauging collective emotions in the market (10:00), Billions discussion (15:00).
More information about Denise and The ReThink Group: https://therethinkgroup.net/
Gregory Mariasch, partner at Pembroke Emerging Markets, makes the case for his particular brand of long-short investing. Contrary to the prevailing opinion, there are opportunities in emerging markets that are less correlated to trade war issues between the US and China.
Stock markets in China, Brazil, Argentina, and Mexico are discussed in greater detail.
Content:
Not your grandfather's emerging markets (2:40), China's economy and the trade war (5:40), stocks to own (13:20), the bullish case for Argentina (14:30) and Brazil (19:30), reasons to be bearish on Mexico (24:50).
Not intended as investment advice.
More information about Pembroke: https://www.pembroke-em.com
Kevin Smith of hedge fund firm Crescat Capital in Denver joins the podcast to discuss his views on China and other asset bubbles, which he considers ripe for implosion.
China heading into an economic downturn (2:00) and why its currency hasn't faced any real devaluation, the situation in Hong Kong (3:50) and short HKD trade, the maturing economic expansion in the US (7:37), fiat currency debasement and bullish case for precious metals (11:35), background about Kevin (17:32).
Not intended as investment advice.
Scott Colbert, chief economist at Commerce Trust Company in St. Louis, disagrees with the prevailing consensus that the US expansion is at or near recession.
While growth may have slowed, the economy is in much better shape than is believed by many, with few near term chances of recession according to Colbert, citing leading economic indicators.
Indeed, "if we had to put a number on it...we would push it out towards as much as four more years" of economic expansion.
The market is underestimating the response by policymakers, including by the Federal Reserve, to ward off a slowdown.
The market has begun to price in the likelihood of a US-China trade deal. But this would not be the end of China's problems with its biggest trading partner, says renowned short-seller (and China bear) Jim Chanos in this short clip.
Shares of timeshare companies have not done particularly well lately. That is understandable considering the options investors have elsewhere as well as the state of the economic cycle in the U.S. But this week's guest, Michael Kahan of North Peak Capital Management, likes one particular stock in the sector -- and tells us exactly why.
Content: The value proposition (2:33), the stock (3:15), drivers of revenue growth and performance during recessions (6:00), more on the hedge fund (16:30), entry points (19:35).
For more on North Peak Capital: www.northpeakcapital.com
Retail is dead. Brick and mortars shopping has been replaced by E-commerce. Amazon is triumphant, the victor over all goods that can reasonably be bought and sold. The experience of in-person shopping, whether for clothes or food or electronics or anything else, is going the way of the horse and buggy.
This is the conventional wisdom. It would take a very wise (and contrarian) individual to want to oppose it. But that's exactly what this week's guest is all about. @ValueStockGeek has spotted some opportunities in retail stocks. Yes, really.
Content:
Finding mispriced securities (3:00), more about ValueStockGeek and his process (12:54), stock ideas (15:23).
The guest was kind enough to share some reports that factor into his view:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ECOMPCTSA
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/09/sears-predicts-amazon/540888/
Renowned short-seller Jim Chanos spoke at the Connecticut Hedge Fund Association's quarterly meeting on June 6. This is a recording of his speech.
In his 45-minute address, Chanos discussed Tesla, China, kidney dialysis companies, and a host of other topics.
Note: The acoustics leave a little bit to be desired.
Special thanks to the Connecticut Hedge Fund Association.
The general assumption that management and governance of public companies are efficient, is false. So says Henry D. Wolfe in his recently-released book, "Governance Arbitrage: Blowing up the public company governance model to maximize long-term shareholder value."
Content: The underlying thesis (3:00), what needs to replace it (5:30), why institutional investors have to play a key role (7:44), the advantages of the private equity model (8:45), Wolfe's contrarian investing priority (16:26), Costco the optimal model (21:30).
More information: https://governancearbitrage.com/
Almost all headlines from Puerto Rico are negative these days, but there is a way to profit from all the doom and gloom, according to Tobias Carlisle of Acquirers Funds. An insurance company is uniquely positioned to capitalize on Puerto Rico's recovery. Along the way, Tobias also discusses Tesla (and TSLAQ), his investment style, and other sectors that he finds interesting at present
Content:
Background on Tobias and his fund (0:56), the debate over Tesla (5:26), makeup of the long book and the case for Assured Guarantee (8:37), the specifics of Puerto Rico (12:00), possible target price for AGO (16:25).
Not intended as investment advice.
Leverage, especially using borrowed money to increase returns, has a bad reputation that is no longer justified, according to David Kreinces of ETF Portfolio Management. In fact, proper use of leverage can help investors produce alpha in market environments where other strategies fall short.
Content: Treasuries as a shock absorber, allowing for use of leverage with growth assets (2:55), why following price action is more important than monitoring news (7:11), including presidential tweets (9:11), background on David and his firm (11:40), why investors' continued fear of leverage causes missed opportunities (17:00), semiconductor stocks and indexes as the ultimate proxy for growth and artificial intelligence (20:33), current stocks in the portfolio (24:49).
Not intended as investment advice.
Shares of AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) and Gogo Inc. (GOGO) have been beaten down pretty badly in recent years. But there is a lot that the market is missing, says this week's guest, Mark Jones of Pragmatic Capital.
What's been ailing AMC (2:40), why the cyclicality of the movie business (5:00) and Disney's production schedule (6:52) will help its cause. Jones's price target for AMC (9:20) and his research methods (16:30).
The case for Gogo (23:25), the backlog of demand (27:00) and his price target (30:08).
Not intended as investment advice.
The metals and mining sector of the equities market has effectively gone nowhere for more than a decade. That may be about to change, according to Matt Zabloski of Delbrook Capital.
A supply/demand imbalance faces the copper market (4:30) and there are ways for investors to profit. Electric vehicles are part of what will drive demand (5:38), leading to higher prices (8:30).
Delbrook Capital's approach (10:37), the coming consolidation (11:48). Background on Delbrook (15:18). Devil's advocate (18:45). Best ideas and stock pick (23:08).
Not intended as investment advice.