Previously in Europe: Recent Episodes
Ciarán & Hugh
Europe is complicated, there's so much going on in all these countries, that's why we're here, to try make sense of all this nonsense with our podcast about the week in Europe with a new episode out every Sunday Night.
We will have a new project at https://dreambuddies.fireside.fm/ if you want to hear what we're up to (forthnightly-ish). There will be European politics but it's not the main focus. And there's still a discord here (http://leftists.eu)
This week we wildly speculate on future events as we're going on hiatus while Ciarán figures out parenting Support us on Patreon! (https://www.patreon.com/previouslyineurope) We now have a website that you can find here! (http://previouslyineurope.eu/) There's a discord here (http://leftists.eu) WE HAVE A T-PUBLIC STORE (https://www.teepublic.com/user/previneurope) what a fashionable way to support our podcast Feel free to send us an email at PreviouslyInEurope@gmail.com or follow us on Twitter @PrevInEurope (https://twitter.com/PrevInEurope) If you can please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and if you can't do that tell a friend, this stuff really helps us out Also, have you considered Matteo Renzi? ## Subsequently in Europe Speculation Time! Germany Danish minority are running in the next parliament elections (thanks for the heads up Maximilian) - I predict a very close early election due to government breakdown followed by the Danish Schleswig Party party entering a coalition with the deciding vote. Brexit? I think there'll just be a terrible deal which the UK will pretend is very good. They're kicking up a fuss about it now as a distraction because the migrant panic didn't work long enough Coronavirus Is no buneo...
There are two topics today whoop whoop! We talk about #golfgate in Ireland which gets us annoyed (as Irish people) and we revisit the Serbian elections and where we are with all that Vučić stuff. Support us on Patreon! (https://www.patreon.com/previouslyineurope) We now have a website that you can find here! (http://previouslyineurope.eu/) There's a discord here (http://leftists.eu) WE HAVE A T-PUBLIC STORE (https://www.teepublic.com/user/previneurope) what a fashionable way to support our podcast Feel free to send us an email at PreviouslyInEurope@gmail.com or follow us on Twitter @PrevInEurope (https://twitter.com/PrevInEurope) If you can please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and if you can't do that tell a friend, this stuff really helps us out Also, have you considered Matteo Renzi?
Support us on Patreon! (https://www.patreon.com/previouslyineurope) We now have a website that you can find here! (http://previouslyineurope.eu/) There's a discord here (http://leftists.eu) WE HAVE A T-PUBLIC STORE (https://www.teepublic.com/user/previneurope) what a fashionable way to support our podcast Feel free to send us an email at PreviouslyInEurope@gmail.com or follow us on Twitter @PrevInEurope (https://twitter.com/PrevInEurope) If you can please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and if you can't do that tell a friend, this stuff really helps us out Also, have you considered Matteo Renzi? No Election Left Behind 2020 Belarusian presidential election https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020Belarusianpresidential_election EU response EU officially doesn't recognise the results, but it took a while (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/19/belarus-crisis-eu-leaders-emergency-talks-lukashenko-protests). There's talk of sanctions but nothing specific yet On the delay from a Politico Newsletter: ANOTHER STATEMENT: The EU threatened sanctions earlier this week, but today’s videoconference is more about delivering a “quick reaction,” a senior EU diplomat told Jacopo Barigazzi. A decision very likely won’t come until the foreign ministers meet in person August 27-28 in Berlin, the diplomat said, for an informal gathering known as a “Gymnich.” And since EU High Representative Josep Borrell is technically on holiday away from Brussels, no press conference is expected at the end of today’s meeting — just a readout. Also... https://neweasterneurope.eu/2020/08/17/belarus-why-this-time-is-not-different/ Strikes Call for solidarity from worker organisations: https://progressive.international/wire/2020-08-19-an-urgent-call-for-solidarity-with-the-workers-and-people-of-belarus/en https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/08/state-controlled-firms-join-strike-belarus-president-200818113145275.html https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/17/belarus-opposition-calls-for-general-strike-after-biggest-protests-yet Including the state TV station - https://www.dw.com/en/belarus-television-broadcasts-empty-studio-as-state-media-joins-general-strike/a-54593079?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf Europe's last dictator... For a very questionable graph: https://www.rferl.org/a/years-of-lukashenka-and-counting/30769566.html But yes he's been in office a long time and it would not be reasonable to say he's been winning fair elections for a long time. The response from the Lukashenka side to the possibility of a real challenger is not surprising - imprisoned candidates, banned rallies, etc (https://neweasterneurope.eu/2020/08/07/ahead-of-the-presidential-elections-in-belarus/) From Maxim Rust, Polish political science researcher: "The elections will be held on August 9th. Nobody is sure about how they will unfold or how the authorities will react to the planned mass protests in their aftermath. One thing is certain – regardless of the election results, Belarusian society is not what it was just a few months ago. " That was pretty spot on Crackdown "Opposition leader" forced to leave for safety https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SviatlanaTsikhanouskaya#citenote-41 https://www.rferl.org/a/belarusian-opposition-candidate-forced-to-leave-country/30778578.html https://news.sky.com/video/end-violence-on-streets-of-belarus-says-opposition-leader-12049164 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53733330 Internet cutoff https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/11/belarus-president-cuts-off-internet-amid-widespread-protests https://twitter.com/BBCWillVernon/status/1293963021677735937 Beatings and torture of those arrested, general harsh approach to protesters https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/10/belarus-elections-lukashenko-protests-tikhanovskaya-europe/ https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/13/belarusians-accuse-lukashenko-regime-of-beatings-and-torture https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/10/belarus-elections-lukashenko-protests-tikhanovskaya-europe/ https://www.eurotopics.net/en/245568/protests-and-violence-after-belarus-elections https://euobserver.com/foreign/149144?utmsource=euobs&utmmedium=rss Journalists being rounded up specifically https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1293867313775747072 https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/danpeleschuk/belarus-detention-centers-abuse-lukashenko-protests https://www.dw.com/en/dws-belarus-correspondent-released-after-10-day-arrest/a-54584439?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
On today's episode, Hugh tries to convince Ciarán that the new EU budget isn't terrible. It goes about as well as expected. Support us on Patreon! (https://www.patreon.com/previouslyineurope) We now have a website that you can find here! (http://previouslyineurope.eu/) There's a discord here (http://leftists.eu) WE HAVE A T-PUBLIC STORE (https://www.teepublic.com/user/previneurope) what a fashionable way to support our podcast Feel free to send us an email at PreviouslyInEurope@gmail.com or follow us on Twitter @PrevInEurope (https://twitter.com/PrevInEurope) If you can please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and if you can't do that tell a friend, this stuff really helps us out Also, have you considered Matteo Renzi?
Support us on Patreon! (https://www.patreon.com/previouslyineurope) We now have a website that you can find here! (http://previouslyineurope.eu/) There's a discord here (http://leftists.eu) WE HAVE A T-PUBLIC STORE (https://www.teepublic.com/user/previneurope) what a fashionable way to support our podcast Feel free to send us an email at PreviouslyInEurope@gmail.com or follow us on Twitter @PrevInEurope (https://twitter.com/PrevInEurope) If you can please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and if you can't do that tell a friend, this stuff really helps us out Also, have you considered Matteo Renzi? No Election Left Behind 2020 Polish presidential election https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020Polishpresidential_election https://www.politico.eu/article/poland-presidential-election-anti-semitism/ https://www.politico.eu/article/poland-to-limit-foreign-media-soon-pis-leader-says/ https://www.dw.com/en/poland-election-result-opposition/a-54205004?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf 2020 North Macedonian parliamentary election https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020NorthMacedonianparliamentaryelection REPUBLIC OF NORTH MACEDONIA The North Macedonian parliament on Sunday voted to dissolve and set a snap election for April 12. The vote had previously been scheduled for November so it’s not like they’re shifting things around in a major way, but something like this has been in the cards since ex-Prime Minister Zoran Zaev resigned just after the new year in the wake of the European Union’s decision not to open membership talks with his government. North Macedonia has been run by an interim cabinet since then. Zaev had staked his premiership on a pro-EU policy, and pushed through an unpopular addition of the word “North” to the country’s name in order to settle a dispute with Greece that was preventing Skopje from applying for EU membership. His political position was therefore badly undercut by the failure to start the accession process last fall. The election will basically serve as a referendum on Zaev’s approach, and he’ll be hoping voters return him to office with a mandate to keep pursuing EU membership. North Macedonia’s NATO accession should be a done deal by then (only Spain has yet to ratify it and that’s because Madrid’s political situation is a mess, not because of anything to do with North Macedonia) and Zaev is hoping the excitement over that development will give him a boost. https://www.dw.com/en/north-macedonia-holds-first-election-since-changing-its-name/a-54172417?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/15/world/europe/north-macedonia-election-zaev.html https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/north-macedonia-votes-general-election-eu-talks-loom-200715073621655.html https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/can-europe-make-it/elections-north-macedonia-waiting-kingmaker/ https://www.euronews.com/2020/07/15/north-macedonia-votes-covid-19-driving-fears-of-low-turnout-in-first-election-since-name-c
No election left behind!!! Tonight we talk the Croatian 2020 parliamentary elections and how maybe it should've been postponed Support us on Patreon! (https://www.patreon.com/previouslyineurope) We now have a website that you can find here! (http://previouslyineurope.eu/) There's a discord here (http://leftists.eu) WE HAVE A T-PUBLIC STORE (https://www.teepublic.com/user/previneurope) what a fashionable way to support our podcast Feel free to send us an email at PreviouslyInEurope@gmail.com or follow us on Twitter @PrevInEurope (https://twitter.com/PrevInEurope) If you can please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and if you can't do that tell a friend, this stuff really helps us out Also, have you considered Matteo Renzi?
Support us on Patreon! (https://www.patreon.com/previouslyineurope) We now have a website that you can find here! (http://previouslyineurope.eu/) There's a discord here (http://leftists.eu) WE HAVE A T-PUBLIC STORE (https://www.teepublic.com/user/previneurope) what a fashionable way to support our podcast Feel free to send us an email at PreviouslyInEurope@gmail.com or follow us on Twitter @PrevInEurope (https://twitter.com/PrevInEurope) If you can please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and if you can't do that tell a friend, this stuff really helps us out Also, have you considered Matteo Renzi? ## Also Happening: GDPR turns two EU Commission GDPR Formal Review The Cookies Thing? Yes! Well.. not entirely the cookies thing, but yes the cookies thing. Most people interact with this by seeing those annoying popups being like "I consent to all cookies, please leave me alone", but what if I told you that was actually a good thing? The general idea was to do what it says in the name "General Data Protection Regulation", so a regulation what was uniform across the EU and protected data. Cool so to keep data on someone via an EU state basically you now (as of 2018): have to have consent you can't keep it indefinitely if they ask you to remove it you have to This was actually a big deal considering how there's usually more concessions in EU legalisation for special interests - e.g. due to a major industry in a country or because David Cameron didn't want us to have nice things. But this was a pretty broad update to the 1990s data protection laws that really did seem planned to give some citizen level control over their data. This was of course in the wake of Edward Snowden, Cambridge Analytica and that time Marc Zuckerberg gave a really crappy testimony to the EU (https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/may/22/five-things-we-learned-from-mark-zuckerbergs-european-parliament-appearance). So there was actually consensus that this was a good idea. It passed the council with only Austria complaining it wasn't strict enough and the parliament almost unanimously (though some who negotiated noted it was only after much convincing in negotiations http://old.guengl.eu/news/article/gue-ngl-news/gdpr-a-milestone-for-data-privacy-in-the-eu) There were even fines built into it - up to €20m/4% of global turnover (whichever is bigger) if non-compliance continued. So it worked? Sort of! You've seen those cookies pop-ups right? See the EU Commission's very neutral infographic "the fabric of a success story" (https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/fs201172). Also (https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip201163) "Between May 2018 and November 2019, 22 EU/EEA data protection authorities issued 785 fines." Google and Facebook are among those (https://www.zdnet.com/article/google-facebook-hit-with-serious-gdpr-complaints-others-will-be-soon/), but in practice not much has changed "The GDPR allowed for coronavirus tracing apps to be developed, all while respecting personal data protection as a fundamental right. " EU countries spend a lot more on data protection officers than they used to (42% increase in staff and 49% in budget for all national data protection authorities) They love to point out how nowhere else has as comprehensive a set of rules "Citizens are more empowered and aware of their rights" - 69% (nice) of people are aware of GDPR... which seems like a pretty loaded stat but sure. Cool so we're good? There's been some issues: Cross border complaints have worked only okay: "Between 25 May 2018 and 31 December 2019, 141 draft decisions were submitted through the ‘one-stop-shop', 79 of which resulted in final decisions." In Romania Dragnea (of in prison for corruption fame) tried to use their data protection office to demand sources from journalists (https://euobserver.com/justice/143356) Probably the main issue.. which should have been apparent from the start was that tech firms tend to have EU bases in countries like say, Ireland or Luxembourg... who wouldn't have the cash for a big GDPR complaints processing centre. So there are big backlogs (https://www.politico.eu/article/we-have-a-huge-problem-european-regulator-despairs-over-lack-of-enforcement/) For instance the Irish regulator is basically the centre for big cases against Google, Facebook, Microsoft and Twitter... so their backlog is large. Plus don't forget the Irish government isn't super keen on pissing those companies off (see the apple tax case!) Oh so its being misused and bad? Well no... The EU needs data protection rules. The alternative is worse, and the big theoretical merit of the GDPR is still there - its universal and not riddled with exemptions that favour big business massively. Consider the contrast to the upload filter and link tax plans they had for copyright reform (https://juliareda.eu/2018/05/censorship-machines-link-tax-finish-line/). The GDPR is pretty simple in principal and is still there. Nobody is getting anywhere seriously trying to soften it. These sorts of rights are hard to take away. Yes you can argue it's not really being followed properly, but I think it's a harder task to say its bad. People are trying to argue however that the GDPR needs fixing... and they think that should happen before any new rules such as legislating against facial recognition and other AI... They argue that public trust in internet companies continues to drop so the GDPR isn't working, but its also too strict so should be abandoned... https://www.datainnovation.org/2019/06/the-gdpr-was-supposed-to-boost-consumer-trust-it-has-failed/ Also that "access to data" is harmed so it's bad for innovation (https://www.datainnovation.org/2019/05/the-eu-needs-to-reform-the-gdpr-to-remain-competitive-in-the-algorithmic-economy/). The GDPR isn't the prettiest or most successful thing but its the one we've got and its far from the worst model to base future rules on emerging technology on
Support us on Patreon! (https://www.patreon.com/previouslyineurope) We now have a website that you can find here! (http://previouslyineurope.eu/) There's a discord here (http://leftists.eu) WE HAVE A T-PUBLIC STORE (https://www.teepublic.com/user/previneurope) what a fashionable way to support our podcast Feel free to send us an email at PreviouslyInEurope@gmail.com or follow us on Twitter @PrevInEurope (https://twitter.com/PrevInEurope) If you can please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and if you can't do that tell a friend, this stuff really helps us out Also, have you considered Matteo Renzi? Show Notes Also Happening: Irish Government Formation FFG want to eat their vegetables but as part of an otherwise meat heavy diet The actual programme for government: https://docs.google.com/file/d/1fVChGUMfzY1LkBPMDllxokHMnRSBU2Tk/view Some issues which are well articulated by GP finance spokesperson Neasa Hourigan: All of the financial modelling assumes Brexit and the economy will be totally fine, any deviation will likely be used as an excuse to backtrack on any social programs, healthcare and ding ding ding, the environment https://twitter.com/SaturdayRTE/status/1274433391916716039 The program implies there will be a 7% emission reduction will be every year compounded... but its an average which she thinks is a clear attempt to miss the target every year of the government (5yr) and claim they're going make up for it later when you re-elect them (https://www.thejournal.ie/neasa-hourigan-programme-for-government-5125103-Jun2020/) Housing isn't well dealt with properly The taxation stuff is probably the worst bit: "In doing so, we will focus any tax rises on those taxes which tax behaviours with negative externalities such as carbon tax, sugar tax, plastics, etc." "medium-term roadmap detailing how Ireland will reduce the deficit and return to a broadly balanced budget." Sounds to me like they're ruling out tax increases on companies and high earners which can only mean cuts... So how are they going to cut emissions or increase public services Eamonn Ryan has said he thinks there's a different economic consensus now but the agreement doesn't really bare that out
Podcast Hugh mentioned - https://www.revealnews.org/episodes/monumental-lies/ Support us on Patreon! (https://www.patreon.com/previouslyineurope) We now have a website that you can find here! (http://previouslyineurope.eu/) There's a discord here (http://leftists.eu) WE HAVE A T-PUBLIC STORE (https://www.teepublic.com/user/previneurope) what a fashionable way to support our podcast Feel free to send us an email at PreviouslyInEurope@gmail.com or follow us on Twitter @PrevInEurope (https://twitter.com/PrevInEurope) If you can please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and if you can't do that tell a friend, this stuff really helps us out Also, have you considered Matteo Renzi?
This week we're discussing the not terrible plan for a new wealth tax in Spain But also remember to donate to bail funds https://secure.actblue.com/donate/bailfundsgeorge_floyd?refcode=cwg Have you considered wealth taxes Spain! https://jacobinmag.com/2020/05/podemos-covid-tax-spain-psoe/ https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/25/spain-crisis-wealth-tax-coronavirus Support us on Patreon! (https://www.patreon.com/previouslyineurope) We now have a website that you can find here! (http://previouslyineurope.eu/) There's a discord here (http://leftists.eu) WE HAVE A T-PUBLIC STORE (https://www.teepublic.com/user/previneurope) what a fashionable way to support our podcast Feel free to send us an email at PreviouslyInEurope@gmail.com or follow us on Twitter @PrevInEurope (https://twitter.com/PrevInEurope) If you can please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and if you can't do that tell a friend, this stuff really helps us out Also, have you considered Matteo Renzi?
Sorry no regular episode this week BUT here's a bonus episode we did for our lovely patrons. Support us on Patreon! (https://www.patreon.com/previouslyineurope) We now have a website that you can find here! (http://previouslyineurope.eu/) There's a discord here (http://leftists.eu) WE HAVE A T-PUBLIC STORE (https://www.teepublic.com/user/previneurope) what a fashionable way to support our podcast Feel free to send us an email at PreviouslyInEurope@gmail.com or follow us on Twitter @PrevInEurope (https://twitter.com/PrevInEurope) If you can please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and if you can't do that tell a friend, this stuff really helps us out Also, have you considered Matteo Renzi?
More money-talk between the parliament agitating for 2 trillion, the commission wanting 1 trillion and Merkel and Macron suggesting 500 billion. Also, watch out for financial wizardry! Support us on Patreon! (https://www.patreon.com/previouslyineurope) We now have a website that you can find here! (http://previouslyineurope.eu/) There's a discord here (http://leftists.eu) WE HAVE A T-PUBLIC STORE (https://www.teepublic.com/user/previneurope) what a fashionable way to support our podcast Feel free to send us an email at PreviouslyInEurope@gmail.com or follow us on Twitter @PrevInEurope (https://twitter.com/PrevInEurope) If you can please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and if you can't do that tell a friend, this stuff really helps us out Also, have you considered Matteo Renzi?
This week we discuss the German Constitutional Court's decision to pretend the ECJ and ECB don't have autonomy or supremacy over their opinions. Support us on Patreon! (https://www.patreon.com/previouslyineurope) We now have a website that you can find here! (http://previouslyineurope.eu/) There's a discord here (http://leftists.eu) Feel free to send us an email at PreviouslyInEurope@gmail.com or follow us on Twitter @PrevInEurope (https://twitter.com/PrevInEurope) If you can please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and if you can't do that tell a friend, this stuff really helps us out WE HAVE A T-PUBLIC STORE (https://www.teepublic.com/user/previneurope) what a fashionable way to support our podcast Also, have you considered Matteo Renzi? Also Happening German Court Ruling https://www.d-kart.de/en/blog/2020/05/11/ultra-vires/ So what happened German high courts overruled an ECJ ruling, which is... oops! https://www.ft.com/content/2d4a6959-8bdc-4d74-b617-873bba839807 Good thread that explains the effects of this ruling https://twitter.com/henrikenderlein/status/1257619628966191104?s=20
On today's episode, we do Matteo Matteo or Actually Good with the Spanish UBI or what the English press has called UBI. It's very misleading. Support us on Patreon! (https://www.patreon.com/previouslyineurope) WE HAVE A T-PUBLIC STORE (https://www.teepublic.com/user/previneurope) what a fashionable way to support our podcast We now have a website that you can find here! (http://previouslyineurope.eu/) Feel free to send us an email at PreviouslyInEurope@gmail.com or follow us on Twitter @PrevInEurope (https://twitter.com/PrevInEurope) If you can please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and if you can't do that tell a friend, this stuff really helps us out Also, have you considered Matteo Renzi?
Support us on Patreon! (https://www.patreon.com/previouslyineurope) WE HAVE A T-PUBLIC STORE (https://www.teepublic.com/user/previneurope) what a fashionable way to support our podcast We now have a website that you can find here! (http://previouslyineurope.eu/) Feel free to send us an email at PreviouslyInEurope@gmail.com (https://previouslyineurope@gmail.com) or follow us on Twitter @PrevInEurope (https://twitter.com/PrevInEurope) If you can please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and if you can't do that tell a friend, this stuff really helps us out Also, have you considered Matteo Renzi? Clearing some things up Lockdown? An issue of our recurring segment clearing some things up where we clear up what people mean by a somewhat misleading term because of how its used differently everywhere. This Guardian article includes a graphic saying the reopening allowed in different countries stipulating there's no easing in the UK, Ireland or Netherlands... which implicitly suggests a simpler picture than there is. The UK for instance always let children outside, but Spain is on the list for letting them out and considering allowing exercise outside on May 2. Not to say that one way is better for sure, but maybe we need to be more specific when we talk about lockdown. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/27/italy-unveils-plans-for-easing-of-coronavirus-lockdown-restrictions-conte https://www.politico.eu/article/italy-and-spain-announce-plans-to-ease-coronavirus-lockdowns-further/ After this is over the lack of coordination between countries in Europe that share land borders may be the real problem. The Commission has been urging coordination in lifting measures... which really seems to not be happening. Taking schools reopening: - France saying May 11 (?!!) - Belgium talking about May 18 - Italy saying September...
This week in quarantine land we discuss the elections that have been postponed and those (looking at you Poland) that are bafflingly going ahead!
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WE HAVE A T-PUBLIC STORE what a fashionable way to support our podcast
We now have a website that you can find here!
Feel free to send us an email at PreviouslyInEurope@gmail.com or follow us on Twitter @PrevInEurope
If you can please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and if you can't do that tell a friend, this stuff really helps us out
Also, have you considered Matteo Renzi?
No Election Left Behind... But maybe delay them?PolandAfter much fucking around they've settled on postal only voting... which ehh.. sure. The PiS are worried their mismanagement of the health service will be a bad look for them and might affect Duda's re-election chances.
- Initially they said some of it by post (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/01/polish-government-still-planning-to-hold-presidential-election#maincontent)
- Now they're saying all of it by post (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52199897)
But some problems with that:
- Poland has never had a postal election and they only have a month to arrange one (queue alarm bells ringing about fraud/mistakes)
- Collecting millions of ballots and counting them by hand via thousands of election districts (not to mention travel to pick up)... seems a bit like a disease vector to me.
- The Polish constitution has a very specific entry about delaying elections for up to 90 days during emergencies (https://www.senat.gov.pl/en/about-the-senate/konstytucja/chapter-xi/), so why are they having it if not for political gain?
It's clearly because Duda, like many leaders is surgingly popular
https://www.ft.com/content/b1a6457c-7a5c-11ea-bd25-7fd923850377
Also people want it postponed (2/3rds for postponing) https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-poland-election/majority-of-poles-want-presidential-election-postponed-amid-coronavirus-survey-idUSKBN21C23T
Elections be dangerous in pandemics, who knew?The French had the brain wave of not cancelling the first round of their local elections (see France's 2 round system for everything). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_French_municipal_elections
The second round has now been delayed until after the lockdown. The lockdown began the next day on March 16... so why did they have the election?
- Turnout was historic low of 45% (20% down from last time) https://www.france24.com/en/20200315-live-france-holds-local-elections-despite-coronavirus-clampdown
- Poll workers had to wear some PPE... but clearly it was a completely unnecessary risk
South Korea is holding their national elections - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/14/south-korea-votes-in-first-national-election-of-coronavirus-era
but to be semi-fair they have new cases at a low and have testing/infrastructure in place to at least try do it. They've not had to rethink their voting system completely. I still think it's a terrible idea
Postponed
Macedonian
Serbia
This week we discuss the EU's corona response in our wonderful reoccurring section, this is not it chief!
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Also, have you considered Matteo Renzi?
That is not it chiefIsn't this exactly what the EU should be for?Well.. yeah probably, but it's the exact kind of thing some members would resist. Healthcare is weirdly absent and explicitly down to the member states. It's basically optional:
"Union action, which shall complement national policies, shall be directed towards improving public health, preventing physical and mental illness and diseases, and obviating sources of danger to physical and mental health. Such action shall cover the fight against the major health scourges, by promoting research into their causes, their transmission and their prevention, as well as health information and education, and monitoring, early warning of and combating serious cross-border threats to health"
Cool good start...
"The Union shall encourage cooperation between the Member States in the areas referred to in this Article"
Oh... so... not really their main jam
The EU has a centre for disease prevention and control (https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en), but it's pretty small and exists more to provide training/support to countries with perceived emergency plans.
Ursula said it's fine now though?Yeah... and it totally could have done this earlier. This is exactly the kind of positive thing the EU could be doing all the time but squabbling and money would prevent it. You'd easily find commission staff who would have loved to do this every commission cycle.
They've started a EU stockpike of ventilators, masks etc for pandemics (but only since March 19(
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_476)
Joint procurement for ventilators got a lot of press in the UK for them "missing an email" or something... but why wasn't the mechanism for this already in place? (https://euobserver.com/tickers/147981). This is a wake up call for emergency procurement powers that aren't made up or renewed ad hoc requiring country level export bans (https://www.eurotopics.net/en/238112/coronavirus-how-can-europe-secure-more-face-masks)
France and Germany are taking Italian patients.. but only after there was already a huge problem. Again there should have been a plan in place for this already, there are on national levels, why not EU?
You could of had emergency bonds mechanisms in place so Mark Rutte couldn't have this opportunity to be a shitbag during a crisis (https://www.politico.eu/article/dutch-no-on-corona-bonds-undermines-european-project/). Or better yet pre-agree a bailout system of another sort...
Rethinking European SolidarityMacron, von der Leyen, umm.. basically everyone who's not Merkel or Weber, talk a big game of EU reform. An EU that works for the people or something... Well you could actually do that. 2008 and the Eurocrisis was the time for this. Rethinking the way EU solidarity in a crisis worked. They tried giant loans and fiscal rules, everyone hated them. Why isn't there a mechanism in place to deal with the next crisis? Because it was a hard discussion and they were busy giving vague statements or writing open letters.
Daniel Gros (of Centre for European Policy Studies) argues you could exempt the badly hit countries from paying into the EU budget... which could be a repeatable mechanism. It's much easier than loans and doesn't cripple the countries its supposed to benefit. "Corona solidarity" in less badly hit countries, or those who could better recover using their own coffers (see Germany - https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-to-ditch-balanced-budget-commitment-to-prevent-coronavirus-slump/)
https://voxeu.org/article/corona-transfers-instead-coronabonds
Map of Ciarán's absurdist electoral map for Irish voting abroad : https://previouslyineurope.eu/assets/images/IrishForeignMap-World.png
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This week we discuss points based immigration systems and why they're not the best idea.. but more importantly why the aim of the UK's new one will not be fairness and merit.
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That is not it chiefPoints Bases Immigration SystemsPoints based systems always confused me because I thought markets were good, no? At least that's what I was told... The concept of points based systems come from Australia and Canada, which both prior to their points based system had a very heavy "white person" bias... which the points system was meant to eliminate... Enter Brexit - the premise of this part of the Brexit promise relies on either of 2 things: - People either didn't know the UK had a points based system for outside of the EU people already... or that the EU somehow affected that system - People saw the EU migration as the problem?
So eh, what do they want?These two articles summarise it relatively well, the former being easier to skim:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48785695
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-uks-points-based-immigration-system-policy-statement/the-uks-points-based-immigration-system-policy-statement
Effectively it's a pretty complicated way of assessing people and they seem to think they can come up with exemptions for everything that's a problem...
Wait they already have this system for non-european people?Yeah, and it's a bit of a mess. There's a quote from the Labour immigration minister that introduced it:
“There’s something deep in the British psyche about the Australian system,” says Mr Byrne. But points-based immigration regimes look most attractive from a distance. The countries that invented them concluded some time ago that they are flawed, and have tweaked them radically. They have also discovered that points systems do not completely cure xenophobia.
https://www-economist-com.libproxy.kcl.ac.uk/international/2016/07/07/whats-the-point
"butchers and ballet dancers were given special treatment and footballers were not required to speak English."
because suddenly once you have points, qualifications, language requirements, earnings caps things become a mess and you have a full team of policy people working out the exceptions in perpetuity
They're setting the bar high to reduce numbers, not introduce meritTheresa May closed several of the "tiers" in the UK system as Home Secratary in order to try bring down numbers. Students post study and a general non-employment offer dependent route was closed.
The old system also has a "low-skilled" route which was never implemented because the EU freedom of movement rules meant they just didn't need it... the proposed system doesn't replace that with anything.
In the endless tinkering needed to make these creaking systems work in Canada for example found they had to bring in a seasonal worker exception which ended up being... exploitative wage wise (they were allowed pay them below minimum wage).
"Australia Style" in particular focus group's well so its getting used, but this proposal is not Australia's system (which is bad in many ways) but allows for more net migration than the UK is aiming for (https://www.ft.com/content/c1b8471c-296b-11e6-8ba3-cdd781d02d89).
What would be less awful?Well... freedom of movement in the EU solved a lot of these problems and didn't create unnecessary bureaucracy which hurt people (at least those from the EU).
but we're not getting that so...
- Make a moral case for migration
- Something I think free marketers and the left can get on board with is very lax immigration for economic benefit (insert rainbow emoji here)
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That would be nice### Rent Control
Repeatedly in European elections and at more local levels the need for increased rent regulation or some form of temporary controls to balance out a difficult housing market: - Irish election 2020 this was a major issue with Sinn Féin using it as their main issue - London's mayor is talking about it heavily now as he's up for election in May - Berlin legislature passed a freeze which is now in effect (https://www.dw.com/en/berlins-new-rent-freeze-how-it-compares-globally/a-50937652) - Spain brought in new rules for contract length minimums and yearly increase caps (https://english.elpais.com/elpais/2019/03/04/inenglish/1551692513\_394392.html, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-28/spain-s-most-aggressive-rent-controls-may-soon-hit-barcelona) Overall the regulations vary wildly across Europe. In the UK there's barely any, in Spain their starting point was already comparatively long minimum contract lengths to protect renters.
Sounds like its necessary, no?
Well my friend, don't you read the economist? They'd say, and it would be parroted by politicians from Ireland to Germany to.. eh.. Zagreb I'm sure, that rent controls don't work
https://www-economist-com.libproxy.kcl.ac.uk/leaders/2019/09/19/rent-control-will-make-housing-shortages-worse
"Rent controls are a textbook example of a well-intentioned policy that does not work. They deter the supply of good-quality rental housing. With rents capped, building new homes becomes less profitable. Even maintaining existing properties is discouraged because landlords see no return for their investment."
"The mismatch reduces economy-wide productivity. The longer a tenant stays put, the bigger the disparity between the market rent and his payments, sharpening the incentive not to move."
https://www-economist-com.libproxy.kcl.ac.uk/europe/2019/07/20/europe-embraces-rent-controls-a-policy-that-never-works
"Critics argue that instead of trying to fix prices, cities should allow more homes to be built. Sebastian Czaja, an MP for the Free Democratic Party in Germany, says Berlin needs “a construction offensive”. The city has grown by about 50,000 people a year since 2011, but added only 10,000 new apartments per year. "
An obvious logic gap?
This argument is making some clear assumptions:
- People will only build houses if they can make huge profits on them
- If you let them build whatever they want it will serve the market
- There are people available to rent/buy what developers want to build
To get there you have to ignore all the reasons why rent controls have been brought in for most of these places - people can't afford the rent increases because their salary doesn't increase.
Some other things that have to be ignored for a low regulation building frenzy to work:
- Luxury accommodation is more profitable and there is a focus on building more of that if possible, eventually selling that will earn you more money.
- All other rent control systems failed/had issues only because controlling rent is bad, rather than a loophole (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47028342) - There is available space to build rental stock everywhere
- People aren't interested in protecting existing local populations
- Building to produce only rental stock is a good thing...
It does raise the issue of what works and how to sell it?
You can get stuck in the loop Fine Gael spun during the Irish debates on this last year: "there's no evidence this won't decrease stock", etc.
Like most policy I think there's some good rules to go by:
- Make it as universal as possible, loopholes arise from complications
- Needs to be paired with social housing policy where possible
- Needs to be paired with other housing policy to protect people: e.g. minimum standards, discouraging empty housing
This isn't a terrible starting place - https://www.generationrent.org/rentcontrol
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No Election Left Behind2020 Irish Electionshttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Irish_general_election https://www.irishtimes.com/election2020/results-hub
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On this week's episode, we deal with the Italian Regional Elections and the idea that maybe this isn't the glimmer of hope you, the New York Times, think it is.
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That is not it chiefLargely a discussion of why people seem to be jumping the gun on the enormous apparent failure of Salvini to win in a left wing stronghold, spurred in part by this NYT article: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/26/world/europe/italy-election-Salvini.html?emc=rss&partner=rss
Sardines Movement
There's no good evidence the protest movement has the kind of traction compared to the media coverage it gets. We get it, we don't like Salvini either so their movement is a good thing, but its hard to see the affect its having other than slowing the tide and preventing a major upset in one of the left's strongholds.
https://www.dw.com/en/italy-s-sardines-movement-presents-ethical-counter-to-far-right/a-52152079?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
5* collapse
So di Maio is out as leader and the party has collapsed electorally... so an early election is probable regardless of Salvini sweeping local elections
https://www.politico.eu/article/luigi-di-maio-end-of-italy-5star-movement/
Salvini lost apparently
There were two regional elections where Salvini's coalition of parties won one and gained 11% in another but didn't win... the worry was he'd win the Emilia-Romagna one too, which would be wild because it's been won by huge margins usually by left or communist parties in recent memory:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020\_Emilia-Romagna\_regional\_election
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014\_Emilia-Romagna\_regional\_election (20point lead)
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010\_Emilia-Romagna\_regional\_election (~16 point)
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005\_Emilia-Romagna\_regional\_election (27 point)
it goes on like that going back very far.
So his alliance lost by about 7%, with a dramatically increased turnout (29% up) and the 5* were wiped out completely. So he lost somewhere he shouldn't have been even competing? Doesn't sound like what the Economist called, "another blunder"
https://www.economist.com/europe/2020/01/30/regional-elections-in-italy-buttress-the-government
Sure Salvini was bigging it up but it feels more like a sense of _if_ this were to have gone his way it would be a very convincing argument that there should be an election immediately. Him not winning but increasing his share plus no change nationally doesn't really sell his loss too much
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Also, have you considered Matteo Renzi?Podcast ScopeA Matteo Renzi podcast for those who run the personality death cult fetishising Renzi’s record as PM of Italy…
The scope of the podcast is to cover events and causes relevant to a European progressive outlook. Basically is positive change happening, if not why? Especially for 2020 what can look like or is being portrayed as positive change may not actually be that.
We do not cover terrorism.
We do not exclusively cover the Brussels Bubble
We cover certain elections and not others.
Things that need explainingThe importance of national elections in countries that are small or don’t seem like they’d be important have 2 main reasons for needing attention:
They’re a good barometer for political mood in a country at a snapshot of time.
They matter in terms of balance in the EU council and likeness for pan-european movements/projects to progress (e.g. a new veto government could stop any refugee progress made or remove current blocks)
European level alignments is sometimes important and often a handy shorthand. The parliament isn’t as strong as some in Brussels would like to imply, but it's also not irrelevant (which detractors would prefer to imply). What up with the current balance:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_groups_of_the_European_Parliament#Former_compositions
Different systems of government in Europe.
Parliamentary as default
Unicameral v bicameral
French Presidential system
Two round voting
Things coming up in the year 2020What up with Brexit?
What up with Ushi’s old “Green Deal”?
Elections!
Worth Note:Ireland
Macedonia
Slovakia
Croatia
Polish Prez
Romanian
Serbian
Others
Azerbaijan
Icelandic Prez
Belarussian Prez
Lithuania
Georgia
Greek Prez*Moldova Prez
Montenegro
Tense Situations
Italy
Spain
Fun continued times of competition, mergers and Macron’s desire for EU wide monopolies
Technical arguments over taxing mostly digital mega-corporations and how that has a very clear negative impact on discussions over fair pay, worker representation and tax evasion
The world eroding balance of the european grand coalition failing on big issues:
Again climate
Migration
Middle east tensions being mishandled in some way
This week we discuss the fun that is the ongoing French protests and papa Macron's pension reform plans
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Show NotesThis would be niceGood French Pension ReformPapa Manu's planThis was a core part of Macron's presidential and subsequent parliamentary majority campaigns for en Marche - reform the "unfair" pension system.
So why is it unfair?
Well:
- It's much more complicated than most countries - there are 42 different systems (sort of) so Macron wants to bring this into one, sounds sensible (https://www.thelocal.fr/20191211/how-do-french-pensions-compare-to-the-rest-of-europe)
- This is arguably unfair to many groups - because if you worked in a non-unionised industry (or at least without a good union) you don't have the special system
- So they want to bring it into one points system where each euro contributed gets you some number of points and you get extra for things like unsocial hours, dangerous job, time on maternity leave.
So what's the problem that does sound fairer?
.. umm:
- Part of the plan originally was to raise the retirement age to 64 (you would only get the best value at that age), but they've backed off from that part to try chill the protests, which we'll get onto (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/11/world/europe/france-pension-protests.html), also this may only apply to those nearing retirement age soon so it might come back (https://www.politico.eu/article/french-pm-edouard-philippe-offers-concession-on-pension-reform/)
- Unions who have their own system argue they're losing exemptions they fought hard for - rail workers retire early due to it being hard work. Civil service workers get their last job used to calculate their pension partly to encourage people to work in it (at lower pay than the private sector)
- The points system is not transparent - the value of the points will get calculated by the state at the end and therefore it won't be transparent in the same way as basing it on salary would be (https://www.dw.com/en/france-unveils-controversial-pension-reforms/a-51617322)
- They were also proposing the threshold of your income that would get you points would decrease - decreasing the whole pot
So like that doesn't sound good...A lot of the fear from the unions (and the public generally) is around the details of this reform, not the refusal for any reform. Polling from the start of the year said only 25% of people think the reforms are okay the way they are. The strikes have pretty good approval numbers... but other polling shows that people broadly want some sort of pension reform (https://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/retraites-malgre-un-recul-le-soutien-des-francais-a-la-greve-reste-majoritaire-20200103)
The centralised points system on these terms would wipe out most special cases unions have fought for. This is a short term fix that would help balance the countries books.
Unions such as the teacher's union would very easily be able to make the argument nobody would become a teacher at their bad salaries in France if the pensions were also bad.
The train unions could see this as a mechanism to make train privatisation easier.
The general point is that Macron is trying to get filling the pension shortfall that the government now covers as part of its budget off the books. They're pretending it's to be more fair but its mostly about removing any subsidy from the state to cover public service (and some other things like the arts) gaps between contributions and payouts.
You'll see in most media coverage the report from COR, an independent pension advisory committee, who forecast the deficit in the system would be 0.7% of gdp by 2025 if there is no reform - making this sound urgent.
France24 points out this is only one of their forecasts and another of their scenarios shows it shrinking to 0.2% - the big difference in the forecasts is made up largely from expecting the state to cut some of the subsidies to the system... so the government will stop covering parts of the shortfalls that exist to make it look like the shortfalls get bigger when actually they would shrink if they changed nothing. (https://www.france24.com/en/20191223-why-france-s-unsustainable-pension-system-may-well-be-sustainable).
This is in alarming opposition to the contention that age demographics are the primary reason for the need to reform.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_French_pension_reform_strike
But people want reformYeah, you could argue that 42 different systems is wasteful and an obvious win... so build all the existing exemptions into it and it should be cheaper to run, no?
Any cost savings? Great make the system slightly more generous to everyone overall
Police Violence is Trés MalAntoine Baudet: a preschool teacher who lost his hand after picking up what he thought was a smoke grenade.
Zineb Redouane: an 80-year-old Algerian woman who was shot in the face with a tear gas canister while trying to close the shutters to her window in her fourth-floor apartment.
Patrice Philippe: Lost his right eye after being shot in it with a rubber bullet.
A story of police violence in France
a great mini-documentary by Ross Domoney
https://vimeo.com/374210759
This week we discuss the new Austrian government coalition, it might be fine but it's more likely to be the centre-right's new strategy to consume and hijack the green wave.
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Also happening### Austrian Government Formation
Green is good?
Queue Gordon Gecko meme...
So how has this affected Kurz's politics?
Kurz on doing the media rounds made it clear he mainly cares about migration and that's his focus. He also made sure to shit on those helping migrants in the Mediterranean by saying they cause more deaths than they prevent. One NGO called him "baby hitler" based on the Bild interview he did.
More recently he's launched right into headscarf ban talk - https://www.politico.eu/article/sebastian-kurz-aims-to-protect-young-girls-from-effects-of-immigration-with-headscarf-ban/
The idea that you can say nobody will become a migrant due to climate and there's probably just money to be made at home isn't completely new but he's got a Green party on board...
He is very clear that "neither party had to negotiate down their core platform" - meaning he didn't give up anything but also trying to tap down any suggestion of the Green's giving up too much.
This would work elsewhere?
This is partly a numbers game but also is being used to soften Kurz's image. The far right think he's one of them (with good reason) and similar to the new Greek government, his party is still maintaining their "moderate" status for some reason. From the FT:
"The pact has been touted as a possible template for moderate conservatives trying to hold power elsewhere in Europe. "
Indeed this was echoed in many outlets across the continent with particular mention of Germany where this is a very real possibility.
Also Donald Tusk tweeted:
"The Austrian coalition is something more than just a tactical success of Chancellor Sebastian Kurz. It is an important guideline for all the EPP. Climate protection and the protection of our planet, this is, for us Christians, the eleventh commandment. Australia warns!" (https://twitter.com/donaldtuskEPP/status/1214195526150868998)
The OVP control everything basically
Greens get vice Chancellor, justice and an increased climate change ministry.... OVP get everything else effectively.
Kurz is going around stressing their election pledges to cut taxes and reform welfare system/labour laws is going ahead. So very pro increased economic growth by any means... which in now way would negatively impact any green policies
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Kurz_government
https://g8fip1kplyr33r3krz5b97d1-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Screen-Shot-2020-01-05-at-17.44.14.png
https://www.ft.com/content/e8435d86-3533-11ea-a6d3-9a26f8c3cba4
https://www.eurotopics.net/en/232790/new-government-in-austria-a-model-for-europe#
This week we discuss the Croatian presidential election and the possibility of Spain finally getting a government
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No Election Left BehindCroatian Presidential ElectionShow Notes
Also happeningSpanish Government FormationRejected!So as expected they lost the initial vote where they needed an absolute majority... Their plan is to make agreements with enough regional parties in order to pass the second vote to form a minority government where abstentions don't count in the final tally (so they just need a simple majority); however...
- They need quite a few to abstain (>20 by my count but please correct me somebody, They got 166 (PSOE + Podemos + etc) with 18 abstentions). Which is effectively all the regional parties, and there are a lot of them.
- One of the representatives from one of the Canaries' parties voted against in this first vote instead of abstaining... so it's possible they don't have the votes if more go this way. If they get all the same votes for but the same number of abstentions they win but their margin is 2 according to agreements
We'll find out on Tuesday I guess
The debate did not sound fun.. a lot of breaking up of Spain nationalist rhetoric from PP and Vox :-/https://www.dw.com/en/spains-sanchez-loses-first-of-two-chances-to-return-as-pm/a-51892166?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
https://elpais.com/elpais/2020/01/03/inenglish/1578066750_393888.html
https://www.ft.com/content/20fea4d6-2fc2-11ea-9703-eea0cae3f0de
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/November_2019_Spanish_general_election
Deals Deals DealsThere's two, main one first:
- Podemos, the actual coalition deal:
"...include tax rises for higher earners and large firms, an increase in the minimum wage and the partial overturning of aspects of the conservative Popular Party’s previous labor reforms."
"income tax for those earning more than €130,000 a year will rise by two percentage points, and by four percentage points for those who earn more than €300,000. Capital gains tax will also rise by four percentage points above €140,000, to 27% compared to the current 23%. Corporate tax will have a new minimum rate of 15%, while banks and energy firms will have to pay 18%."
https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/12/30/inenglish/1577714366_854324.html
https://www.politico.eu/article/pedro-sanchez-to-present-program-for-ruling-spain-in-coalition-with-far-left/
Sounds good and some reasonable things for Podemos to have gotten that are further than the PSOE would have been planning alone
- Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC), the deal with the largest regional party (by a long way) to abstain and give a chance at the government being formed
The deal sounds like what would have been a pragmatic solution to this all along and it only coming to fruition now is ridiculous...
"The text makes clear that for the PSOE, the situation in Catalonia is a “political conflict,” a definition that the ERC wanted included from the outset of their negotiations."
"The text of the deal sets out a forum with no restrictions on the content of discussions, and that will get going 15 days after the new government is formed."
There are caveats that in the deal the constitution is conspicuously absent indicating Sanchez's people didn't want to make it all about allowing a mechanism for independence or similar, the concession seems to be they made it clear nothing is explicitly off the table
Casado of the PP indicated he might be willing to take this agreement to court... on constitutional grounds I guess? The PP have remained fun since Rajoy...
Also the shroud of ongoing legal proceedings will in no doubt affect any formal discussions. The Catalonian president is being ousted by the courts (https://www.politico.eu/article/catalan-president-faces-being-removed-from-office/); many independence advocates have either been sentenced, are awaiting sentence or are in exile... Not to mention the whole ECJ siding with the elected MEPs not allowed to take their seats.
The EU Parliament is expected to recognise those "banned" as MEPs as early as next week (https://www.politico.eu/article/oriol-junqueras-carles-puigdemont-parliament-to-recognize-jailed-catalan-separatist-as-mep-next-week/)https://elpais.com/elpais/2020/01/03/inenglish/1578040105_633743.html
https://www.politico.eu/article/pedro-sanchez-clears-last-hurdle-to-rule-spain-with-far-left/
Or I guess they could go for 5 elections in 5 years...
Junker: The Good, The Bad and The FunInspired by Junker writing the Politico newsletter on his last day in office. He was being a bit retrospective so we thought it would be a good opportunity to fawn over/shit on him
The GoodJunker was elected with the Spitzenkandidaten - where he was the EPP's lead candidate. Which compared to Mr Goldman Sachs (Barroso) was an improvement.
Also look at the shit load of infographics they produced to show how cool they were:
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/key\_figures\_for\_the\_eu\_2014-2019\_en.pdf?utm\_source=POLITICO.EU&utm\_campaign=56ef0a5c3b-EMAIL\_CAMPAIGN\_2019\_11\_29\_05\_42&utm\_medium=email&utm\_term=0\_10959edeb5-56ef0a5c3b-190266981
Some of that is fine/accurate... but certainly not all. Let's focus on the actual good stuff:
- Media accessibility: Junker did seem to actually want to engage with the public and make the EU more accessible. Come up a lot in the "fun section" but he made a lot of public appearances where he really tried to sell the EU as a good thing. The Euronews livestream thing was actually very watchable and earnest
- He did a reasonable job of selling the EU... while there are a lot of factors including the B word, it's notable that anti-EU sentiment from far right parties has lessened. Partly because it's been semi-not terrible under Junker. Mild independence from the national level government seems to have done it favours (they quote that Eurobarometer shows trust in the EU is generally higher than for national govs with some notable exceptions - UK, France, Greece)
The FunThat handwritten tweet video he did
https://twitter.com/QuickTake/status/1185073056148000768?s=20 The time he yelled at Channel 4
The little black book of enemies
https://www.politico.eu/article/jean-claude-juncker-keeps-little-black-book-of-enemies/
That time he called Orban a dictator
That time he held Tsipras' hand while walking out of the room
That other time he held Orban's hand while walking out of the room
All the slapping he did
That hair thing he did https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uSCarR0UjDQ
The League of Arab States - EU summit where he took a phone call on stage, then made a "my wife" joke.
The other time he did that when at a photoshoot with Robert Fico but then said it was his wife first, then that it was Merkel second.
That time he stopped Sky News from having an interview with him at a summit by constantly interrupting them about how great Sky News is and that it's always on in his house.
The BadIn January 2017, leaked diplomatic cables show Juncker, as Luxembourg's prime minister from 1995 until the end of 2013, blocked EU efforts to fight tax avoidance by multinational corporations. Luxembourg agreed to multinational businesses on an individualised deal basis, often at an effective rate of less than 1%
Uphold Marxist-Leninist-Junckerist thoughtEuropean Forum Alpbach in Austria. During his speech, Juncker, a supporter of Angela Merkel's open door response to the European migrant crisis, made news by telling the audience that "borders are the worst invention ever made by politicians"
Upon hearing the news of Cuban dictator Fidel Castro's death in December 2016, Juncker said, "With the death of Fidel Castro, the world has lost a man who was a hero for many."
On 4 May 2018, Juncker attended and spoke at an event commemorating Karl Marx's 200th birthday.
The MediumJunker was, for the EU establishment, to the left on migration:
- Calling for legal ways to migrate regardless of reason
https://www.dw.com/en/jean-claude-juncker-migrants-need-legal-ways-to-come-to-europe/a-41556151?maca=en-Twitter-sharing
https://www.politico.eu/article/jean-claude-juncker-migration-calls-for-migrants-to-have-legal-ways-to-reach-europe/ - Shitting on the whole dog whistle "Protecting European way of life" title for the new commission
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/juncker-eu-protecting-our-european-way-of-life-immigration-job-title-a9102786.html - (correctly) Blaming "several German speakers" (Kurz) for the slow movement at reforming EU migration policy.
https://www.politico.eu/article/migration-europe-austria-juncker-sebastian-kurz-spar/ - On the other hand it's not like he moved quickly during the surges... and his ideas might be for a complicated "skills" system https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45492746
The FunFrom the politico newsletter:
"As everyone is debating the security of 5G networks, I am happy to rely on my trusty Nokia (not quite a 3310 but almost) to protect me from prying ears. That said, I do distinctly remember hanging up the phone after a lengthy conversation with my dear friend Bill Clinton, only to receive a phone call from Jacques Chirac a few moments later. Without a moment of pretense, Jacques asked me: “But why did you say that like that to Clinton, Jean-Claude?” Thanks for listening in, mon ami. Turns out, it’s not always the U.S. listening in on your phone calls."
The BadThese are ones he acknowledges:
- Accession: promises were made, a country changed its name and Macron changed his mind
- Cyprus and the relationship with Turkey in general
The FunJunker is an alcoholic if you believe his detractors.
and by detractors I mean the British press. People may remember that David Cameron was very against Junker. His loss was part of the long saga of complaining for reforms and special treatment. Didn't do him any good inside his party for that whole leaving referendum thing
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/27/david-cameron-loses-jean-claude-juncker-vote-eu
Maybe Junker is just a fun guy who knows how to party, David? Ever consider that? Why else would he have an Honorary Doctorate of the Miami University?
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-eu-juncker-schaeuble-idUKKBN0F647320140701
.. but also maybe not, there was also the "sciatica" thing at the Nato summit
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-44812352
The BadThat time he installed his chief of staff Martin Selmayer as secretary-general of the commission, an enormous promotion. It gave a lot of weight to conspiracy theories that implied he was really pulling the strings all along
https://www.politico.eu/article/martin-selmayr-monster-of-the-berlaymont-or-committed-european/
Yup, an election sure did happen, and now we have to talk about it. Sorry.
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This week we discuss the Romanian presidential election results a little late and the brain dead state of NATO (for like 20+ years)
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No Election Left BehindRomanian Presidential Electionhttps://www.eurotopics.net/en/230152/iohannis-the-favourite-in-romania-s-runoff-vote?zitat=230105&pk_campaign=rss-en&pk_kwd=2019-11-11#zitat230105
That Would Be NiceNAT-NONATO ( North Atlantic Treaty Organization) is stupid... There.. that'll teach 'em
Macron is sort of on point...Macron is being whiney... But also has some good points. If you ignore the American imperialism angle, what exactly is the point of NATO?
Is it to defend eastern Europe from invasion? Cool, well you're not doing that. The Ukraine membership process wasn't finished but a refusal to help with that seems arbitrary at best.
Is it to only ever do something when everyone agrees? Well no.. because then the US just does whatever it wants anyway inc. drone strikes, actual invasions (iraq), weapon's sales (looking at you US, UK and Germany) for ongoing wars NATO wants no part of...
On the other hand Macron was mainly complaining about not focusing on terrorism in sub Saharan Africa
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-icc-executions-ukrainian-soldiers-evidence-separatists/30312834.html
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/28/macron-defends-brain-dead-nato-remarks-as-summit-approaches
https://www.eurotopics.net/en/231314/nato-row-meeting-between-macron-and-stoltenberg
Nigel is trying to create a weird decision between NATO and any EU cooperation... I'm assuming from his American friends?
https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-and-european-defense-union-cannot-coexist-nigel-farage/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=RSS_Syndication
Summit good opportunity to be mean to TrumpUK commentators are obsessed over how it affects the election since trump is so unpopular and gives them those sweet sweet eyeball money. Also that hot mic thing
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/29/the-guardian-view-on-the-nato-summit-the-watford-credibility-gap
https://www.politico.eu/article/hot-mic-moments-heat-up-nato-leaders-summit/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=RSS_Syndication
But doesn't Orange Man say is bad?Well.. yes.. sort of.. but in the way he says everything is bad until someone tells him it's useful to him or an avenue to get leverage. In the US the pro NATO crowd have migrated to the Democrats because of Trump, but his few "establishment" people like it too. It's also a great vector to try force other countries to increase military spending when their populations don't want to do that...
It was and is still an avenue for the US to try bully smaller countries into signing onto their agenda. Before the break up of the USSR NATO was in effect a defence pact with coordination, which is in theory fine. Since then it's
https://jacobinmag.com/2018/07/nato-donald-trump-putin-cold-war
This week we discuss the ongoing fallout of the murder of journalist Daphne Caruana Galizia. Why hasn't Joseph Muscat resigned? Several people close to him have either been arrested or resigned.
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Also HappeningDaphne Caruana Galizia's Murder
On today's episode, we talk about the Belarussian Elections in our No Elections Left Behind section and in Also Happening we discuss the conditions leading to the UK election
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Pedro Sánchez is a very clever boy who neglected to realise the Spanish people didn't want 4 elections in 4 years
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No Election Left Behind### Spanish Elections
Just keep repeating "Sanchez is weak on Catalonia"
The narrative from the C's consistently since April's election was that Sanchez wasn't to be trusted with not allowing Catalonia a real referendum and I don't know... beating the already imprisoned leaders? Hunting down the rest harder..?
Everyone on the right jumped on board during the debate. Vox claimed it was a coup...
https://www.dw.com/en/spain-sanchez-casado-clash-on-catalonia-during-tv-debate/a-51113677?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
Meanwhile 350k people protested in Barcelona for independence during the King's visit... so that's cool
Didn't we just do this?
Yes! Sanchez was being congratulated at his immense victory in April:
"Spain's shattered right hands Sánchez victory" - https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwjuoqqhsfTlAhUCh1wKHc1rALUQFjAAegQIABAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcontent%2F237a0924-6a2b-11e9-a9a5-351eeaef6d84&usg=AOvVaw0DzVjDidQ9uXDaFpanCiPG
"The Spanish Election Is a Triumph of Logic" - https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-04-29/sanchez-s-victory-in-the-spanish-election-is-a-triumph-of-logic
"Sánchez’s victory is a victory for Europe" - https://www.thenewfederalist.eu/spanish-elections-sanchez-s-victory-is-a-victory-for-europe
So how's that going now?
Well... Vox is now a going concern with a substantial number of seats and has very much been normalised
https://www.eurotopics.net/en/230315/why-the-spaniards-voted-for-vox#
https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2019/11/spain-s-pedro-s-nchez-paying-price-underestimating-far-right
Is there... good news?
Yes! There's apparently going to be a government!
https://jacobinmag.com/2019/11/podemos-spain-election-pablo-iglesias-pedro-sanchez/
Where is the von der Leyen Commission? The answer is very unsatisfying...
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Also HappeningWhere be the Ushi Commission?FranceMacron nominated a comically corrupt individual for their commissioner.
- Stepped down from Macron's government over EU funding investigation (which to be fair she came out of fine)
- She was taking thousands a month for work with a think tank while an MEP
- Her portfolio was enormous. Apparently they interpreted "internal market" as being able to apply to almost anything
https://www.politico.eu/article/frances-commission-pick-sylvie-goulard-rejected-by-parliament/
Macron did not take it well... implying it was a conspiracy over refusing to let Weber be approved as president and that the EPP and von der Leyen assured him Goulard was fine. The latter not being a great sign for von der Leyen in general...
Who's replacing her?
Thierry Breton, french business guy and former minister under Chirac. There are two pretty clear problems:
- MEPs are weary over his conflict of interest possibility being on a shit load of boards he's now resigned from
- He says he'll stay out of discussions directly effecting his old company (Atos) but isn't clear on regulatory policy which affects it
- He's supposed to still get Goulard's immense portfolio
https://www.politico.eu/article/thierry-breton-pledges-to-avoid-conflicts-of-interest-in-financial-declaration/
And?Well the S&D are pissed because now not only do they not have the presidency they were expected to get with Timmermans but due to Romania they're another commissioner down... also the balance of power has not swung in their favour with the actual portfolios.
Might it not get approved?
I mean there's a real chance... there'll be calls for pragmatism to keep things moving so it will likely get approved. Either way the S&D should never have accepted von der Leyen. It's not panning out well.
The delay is so far until December 1 but may go on longer as many of the issues involving the approvals have not been resolved...
Oh also:
- Estonia doesn't currently have a commissioner, neither does Romania because they both became MEPs... So EU budget talks are starting without them
https://news.err.ee/1001502/lacking-commissioner-estonia-left-out-of-commission-s-eu-budget-talks
- Borrell is already gaffing on Twitter
https://www.france24.com/en/20191108-eu-embarrassed-by-incoming-foreign-policy-chief-s-twitter-gaffe
Romanian and Hungarian Commissioners Rejected
The European Parliament’s legal committee rejected on Thursday (26 September) Commissioners-designate from Romania and Hungary, citing conflict of interest.
Rovana Plumb (S&D portfolio Transport) and Hungarian conservative László Trócsányi (EPP portfolio Enlargement) were the only Commissioners designate asked by EU lawmakers to face a grilling over potential conflicts of interest and discrepancies in property statements.
The Hungarian candidate was the former justice minister in Orban's gov and the guy behind a lot of the laws that cause concern about Hungary within the EU.
The Romanian candidate has borrowed €800k to finance her campaign, which didn't go well sure. Plumb was called before the committee last week to account for two loans worth nearly €1 million that she did not declare in her original financial declaration scrutinized by MEPs.
https://www.euractiv.com/section/future-eu/news/romanias-commissioner-designate-plumb-sinks-before-the-hearings/
It's not actually a special it's a regular episode BUT we did want/need to talk about the recent-ish elections in Kosovo, Poland and Switzerland so here it is, have at it!
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No Election Left Behind### Kosovo Election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Kosovan_parliamentary_election
The election was called in July, when outgoing Prime Minister, Ramush Haradinaj, resigned in the face of new war crimes proceedings, according to news reports. He was a former commander in the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) which fought for independence from Serbia and was twice acquitted under former proceedings in The Hague.
With his governing coalition split, he sparked a trade war with Serbia and Bosnia and Herzogovina a year ago, by introducing a 100 per cent tariff on goods, stalling any political progress.
Mr. Tanin said that the elections had been “assessed positively” by international observers, although there had been cases of voter intimidation and campaign finance violations in the Serb-majority areas.
Overall turnout in Sunday’s election was 44% of the 1.9 million registered voters, which represents the highest turnout since 2010.
Vetëvendosje (VV) on 25.5% of the vote, slightly ahead of the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) on 24.8%.
While the final votes were still being counted on election night, VV’s party leader, Albin Kurti, declared victory, saying that the result was a “national celebration,” ahead of a celebration with supporters in Prishtina’s Skanderbeg Square.
The Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK), which has been in government since 2007, has received 21.2% and has conceded that it looks set for a period in opposition. “Citizens have given their verdict and we accept it,” said party leader Kadri Veseli.
The coalition between outgoing Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj’s party, Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK), and the Social Democratic Party (PSD) is in fourth place on 11.6%.
2019 Polish parliamentary election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Polish_parliamentary_election
The PiS lost their Senate majority but they're contesting a lot of the races they lost as being invalid... and they recently made a change to who adjudicates election validity...
https://euobserver.com/opinion/145498?utm_source=euobs&utm_medium=rss
The Polish Supreme court has already ruled out 3/6 requests thought -
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-poland-election-recount/polish-supreme-court-rejects-vote-recount-bid-by-ruling-nationalists-idUSKBN1X8187
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-poland-election-recount/polish-court-rejects-two-more-government-recount-bids-idUSKBN1X919Z
Oddly they say the reason for the recounts isn't valid:
“The purpose of an electoral protest,” the court said in a statement, “is to point out specific violations of law affecting the outcome of the election...not to recalculate votes because of the slight difference between individual candidates.”
Swiss federal election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Swiss_federal_election
The main story from this is that as with most Swiss elections not much will change. The Greens gained a lot of seats but because of the way the Federal Council (their executive) is elected they won't get into that. DW's podcast in an interview with their Swiss correspondent pointed out there's a convention not to let someone in until they've done well a couple of elections in a row... so slow moving it is.
https://www.dw.com/en/greens-surge-in-swiss-elections-as-voters-climate-concerns-grow/a-50903915?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Council_(Switzerland)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic_formula
What even is a "flag carrier?" Here's your bonus episode!
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This week we discuss the Portuguese elections, while Hugh is in China. Why didn't he go to Macau... the coward!
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This week we discuss whether Margrethe Vestager's Time As European Commissioner for Competition is actually good or not. Also why have a competition commissioner exactly?
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Show NotesNo Election Left BehindAustrian ElectionFun Kurz Corner* So there was the thing about shredding hard drives... to help fuel conspiracy theories?
https://metropole.at/schreddergate-kurz-social-media-manager-secretly-destroys-hard-drives-at-reisswolf/
"But, instead of handing them over to the Reisswolf employees, he insists on (not just erasing but) “shredding” the data carriers himself. "
"He then collects all the shredded pieces and takes them with him. He doesn’t pay the bill of €76 as Reisswolf doesn’t take cash – and disappears."
"But a few days later, on May 27, one of Reisswolf’s employees recognized the same man on television, walking behind Sebastian Kurz as the former chancellor"https://metropole.at/schreddergate-kurz-social-media-manager-secretly-destroys-hard-drives-at-reisswolf/
https://www.france24.com/en/20190721-austria-probes-ex-leaders-staff-over-shredding-evidence
- There are 3 weirdly complimentary biographies of Kurz - quotes from which seem super weird
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/28/world/europe/austria-election-sebastian-kurz-freedom-party.html?emc=rss&partner=rss
https://twitter.com/hashtag/50shadesofkurz?src=hash⟨=en (cool....)
https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/austria/ and https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000109137596/die-waehlerstromanalyse-wie-die-stimmen-gewandert-sind
- Similar to Greece media response is celebrating the defeat of the far-right ignoring the Kurz personality cult is much further to the right than they think and ignoring the history of FPÖ and ÖVP cooperation especially in the realm of islamophobic shit (right before the election FPÖ and ÖVP passed resolutions in the National Council against "political Islam")
- Majority of voters didn’t care about Ibizagate, Kurz did benefit from it the most, attracting the most “weniger” and up voters (39% of the ÖVP vote)
- SPÖ is at their lowest result in post-WWII Austria, still the second-largest party though
- Looks like our predictions were correct; he’s gonna get a coalition with a less powerful party whether it’s the Greens, Greens and NeOs or FPÖ again.
- Only 33% of Greens membership support a coalition with the Kurz party of chanting Kurz and bashing Muslims
- Kurz has stated he’s willing to work with any and all parties (but a GroKo is likely out of the question.)
- Jetzt Pilz List is kinda insane
- The Austrian Green youth was kicked out for being too radical (which gives you an idea about how the Greens function) and joined up with KPÖ (forming KPÖ+)
- Neither of the decent left parties in Austria got into the parliament (1.1% total vote).
CIARÁN PREDICTION: Kurz will hold talks with the Greens and they’ll fail so then he can form a government with a weakened FPÖ and appear like the other parties made him do it.
https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000109168988/wer-waehlte-wie-waehlergruppen-und-ihre-motive
https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000109126022/so-haben-die-gemeinden-bei-der-nationalratswahl-abgestimmt
https://www.derstandard.at/story/2000109137596/die-waehlerstromanalyse-wie-die-stimmen-gewandert-sind
Fun FPÖ CornerThey're under investigation for funding problems still... but I guess Strache is gone...
https://www.eurotopics.net/en/227948/how-will-strache-s-departure-affect-the-fpoe?pk_campaign=rss-en&pk_kwd=2019-10-02
https://www.dw.com/en/austrian-police-raid-on-agency-prompts-outrage/a-42960940
- Also there was the raid on the intelligence services taking evidence on far-right groups:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/07/world/europe/austria-far-right-freedom-party.html?module=inline
- Their TV ad game is... woah
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=2kIhX3uj7WE
This week we discuss whether Margrethe Vestager's Time As European Commissioner for Competition is actually good or not. Also why have a competition commissioner exactly?
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Show NotesHave you consideredMargrethe Vestager's Time As European Commissioner for CompetitionVestager is apparently the inspiration for Borgen - or the Danish West Wing as nobody calls it. A liberal who lead an aggressively centrist party and was referred to in the Danish media as the most powerful person in the government despite not actually being the leader. This secured her the commissionership for Denmark (or possibly they were trying to get rid of her) Trump has said "She hates the United States, perhaps worse than any person I’ve ever met.", referring to her as "Tax lady"
Bigger antitrust cases:Google/AlphabetOriginally the previous competition commissioner had negotiated a settlement but the commission of the time rejected it so Vesteger inherited this one.
Back in 2015 the NYT ran a fun explainer on who the hell this was massively fining the darling of the US tech scene (https://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/16/business/international/margrethe-vestager-the-danish-politician-who-brought-antitrust-charges-against-google.html).
This eventually has ended up as a record fine of over 2 billion.. which in effect makes the EU the worlds main anti-trust prosecutor in the world.
The case is largely overall market control and gets to a lot of what Elizabeth Warren talks about when she says she wants to break up the tech monopolies. Google can start a new service (in this case shopping comparision) and just show it alongside google search. If you use google to find flights instead of the airlines or flight comparison sites now you see Google's own service. Similar to the problem with the browser antitrust >20 years ago - it's not that your product is necessarily bad, you're leveraging your already dominant position to make it the default choice.
There was a separate €4.3 billion fine over Android being tied to Google services
Starbucks and FiatThese are more on the tax end where they're "based" in Luxembourg and the Netherlands respectively but pay basically no tax... Going to the EU courts this week on final appeal (https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-eu-stateaid-fiat-starbucks/eu-court-ruling-on-starbucks-fiat-million-euro-tax-orders-on-september-24-idUKKBN1W528L)
There are plans to do something similar with Ikea and Nike who do similar things (https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-competition-commissioner-margrethe-vestager-tax-crusade-faces-judgment-day-fiat-apple-starbucks/)
AppleThis on is particularly egregious with Apple having worked out a deal where they pay far less than the actual rate of corporation tax in Ireland, which is already low.
It has it's own wiki page (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EU_illegal_State_aid_case_against_Apple_in_Ireland)...
This one is also coming to the courts this week.
Chris Johns (an Irish Times Columnist) writes that Vesteger doesn't appreciate Ireland's genius (https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland-simply-better-at-understanding-us-tax-policy-with-fdi-policy-1.4026414)
QualcomThey have a pretty unfair position of dominance in the mobile chip sector and the EU fined them ~900M over it
There are many more in the works...
Cyprus AirwaysThis one is where you could have some left criticism of this practice. Cyprus airlines got a second bailout from the government... but Vesteger found that this was in breech of the EU rule of one state aid per decade... and they'd already been bailed out in 2007 (https://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/09/us-cyprus-airlines-suspension-idUSKBN0KI1R920150109). This put the airline under...
... which complicates matters somewhat.
What is the point of anti-trust and does it get in the way of a larger agenda?... and go...
GaspromAlso messing with international politics over Gasprom's messing with pipelines and what not for transit countries
This week we discuss Spain's upcoming election and how we got here. I blame everyone, but especially you.
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Show NotesAlso HappeningThe great disappointment of Pedro Sanchez¡Mi nombre es pedro sanchez y soy una decepción!
I hear that Sanchez and read a pollSort of... he's banking on another version of this same negotiation where he has a few more seats and can have a slightly different version of the same argument with Podemos?
...or the horrible possibility of the Cs coming around to Sanchez?
Maybe not - "Rivera offered his party’s abstention in any forthcoming investiture debate if the PSOE promised not to increase taxes, ruled out pardoning the 12 Catalan leaders on trial for their role in the 2017 attempt at winning independence and rejected the support of secessionists in the Navarra region." (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/17/spain-braces-for-another-election-as-deadline-looms)
Maybe it's just to punish the PP more.
Or to have negotiations with Podemos in a setting where they would actually have a majority? (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/03/spanish-pm-unveils-progressive-policies-to-head-off-snap-election)
Caretaker government in charge of important shit
In early October we have the Catalan trials and in late October we have Brexit
Opinions on the ground
Because no one's mind has changed many Spaniards are annoyed by the cost of the election being run.
Casado thinks the Cs are the aggressive ones on the right...https://elpais.com/politica/2019/09/19/actualidad/1568882964_970802.html
This week we discuss the problem children of the proposed von der Leyen commission and whether or not we deserve this...
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Show NotesHave you considered...The von der Leyen CommissionThe Politico Europe org chart is good to get an overall view of hierarchy https://www.politico.eu/article/european-commission-president-elect-ursula-von-der-leyen-actual-organization-chart-commissioners-portfolios/ I count: EPP 9 S&D 10 Renew 6 ECR (because Poland) 1 Greens/EFA: 1(sort of... we'll get to that) They also did a good short summary when they were originally announced: https://www.politico.eu/article/meet-the-commissioners-president-ursula-von-der-leyen-team-european-commission-members/
So some of these are bad, can they be rejected?Well... so they can pull themselves out of the running. Which has happened in the past, but...
The parliament votes on the commission as a whole, not on each commissioner. So they have the "hey stop gunking up the process" argument against them. To vote against you have to have to think the people you don't like are worth voting against the whole thing
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/faq/8/how-are-the-commission-president-and-commissioners-appointed
There are some problem childrenPoland's nominee is reportedly under investigationFor irregularities in his spending as an MEP according to Der Spiegel (https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/ursula-von-der-leyen-spesenaffaere-gefaehrdet-kommissionskandidaten-a-1285610.html). Apparently in the 5 digits range.. so... oof
Josep BorrellI'll just leave this here - https://twitter.com/joethebrew/status/1111162199462993920
Also he's the only angry one in their class photo - https://www.politico.eu/article/confirmation-battle-commences-for-ursula-von-der-leyen-team-european-commission/
Margaritis SchinasThis is gross on many levels... one would Greece of had such a high position if they didn't just get a far to the right government? Vice president is a big deal and they sure did hate old Tsipras. So probably not...
Also "Vice-president for Protecting our European way of life". The fuck? He's going to be in charge of migration policy.
Junker is unimpressed:
https://www.politico.eu/article/jean-claude-juncker-criticizes-ursula-von-der-leyen-over-european-way-of-life-commissioner/
France and Sylvie GoulardShe was one of the MoDem people who resigned over a spending scandal while she was an MEP from the Marcon administration. She was also apparently being paid by an American think tank
https://www.france24.com/en/20190910-new-european-commission-timmermans-climate-change-hogan-trade-goulard-leyen
This week we discuss Ireland and the litany of disasters that is its current government but ignore that, look at Varadkar's socks.
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Show Notes Also happening... Irish Government Long discussion and coverage in the Irish times both in articles and podcasts regarding how Varadkar appears reasonable, has chill body language and is generally very organised compared to Johnson on his visit on Monday...
So relatively gushing praise for a minority government leader of an unpopular government...
Recentish (May) polling has the Government approval a little above 30% and in March it was at 38%.
Varadkar is consistently higher than that... (mid 30s-40)
Politico has voting intention polling aggregate for Fine Gale at 26% in second..
So why is the government in place exactly?
The list of ongoing scandals is long and would be the kind of things that would have long since forced a government down:
- https://www.thejournal.ie/data-protection-commission-psc-4797429-Sep2019/
There's a scandal over a report from the data protection commissioner that the government is ignoring probably illegal requirements to get an ID card (for which people are getting denied) and additionally not being GDPR compliant with the handling of the data after identity had been proven... The minister claims they have legal advice saying otherwise... cool
- BusConnects
- Cervical checks
- National Broadband Plan... (https://www.thejournal.ie/national-broadband-plan-8-4622279-May2019/) - cost overruns and problems with tendering the plan
- National Children's Hospital: various problems and cost overruns
- Both of which are broadly part of Ireland 2040 which is generally been a shitshow in many ways
- Maria Bailey Wine Swing Scandal - https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/maria-bailey-and-her-swing-case-questions-that-remain-1.3907617?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fnews%2Fcrime-and-law%2Fmaria-bailey-and-her-swing-case-questions-that-remain-1.3907617
This week we discuss the Brexit thick word soup and why the UK needs reform of everything instead.
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Show Notes Also happening... That Leaving the EU thing With a heavy heart we have been forced to return to that thing we usually ignore because nothing happens with it.
There's a funny article in Foreign Policy that seems to argue the strength of the Italian President as a political figure is the reason Italy is super okay now and the UK is not... so like... it's the systems fault?
Umm.. I guess. Though the probably many things?
https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/08/30/britain-cant-afford-the-queens-weakness-anymore/
Why don't we talk about this more? Well most of the news follows the pattern of "X says Y about Brexit Deal" -
This week's examples:
- Barnier said no renegotiation until Parliament ratifies deal
https://www.politico.eu/article/barnier-no-alternative-to-backstop-until-withdrawal-deal-ratified/
https://www.dw.com/en/brexit-eus-top-negotiator-doubts-no-deal-can-be-avoided/a-50245537 * Johnson says they need to renegotiate deal * Former PM John Major says suspending parliament to avoid votes relating to deal may be illegal and joins court case (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49523055) * Corbyn says "sovereignty" should rest with people, speaking about the deal
(https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/31/final-sovereignty-on-brexit-must-rest-with-the-people--jeremy-corbyn) * Trump says deal bad... (insert infinite sources...)
The words coup, sovereignty and backstop have lost all meaning, not just because of overuse - but because both sides are playing the "no accepting the terms" game and accusing each other of the same thing
"Suspending parliament is a coup"... "no the real coup is the remain weirdos and their pal Corbyn trying to pass legalisation"... I don't see how either of these things are coups so no wonder
https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/coup
But then again this is nuts PM effectively being the executive is pretty nuts and combined with a FPTP system it creates some weird power trips.
The whole Chancellor's advisor being fired and escorted out by armed police without asking the Chancellor... The weird guy Benedict Cumberbatch played in a film once seems to be making staffing decisions now?
Other countries where the PM has effectively absolute power (in europe anyway) are much more fragmented systems like Denmark where the PM has to watch themselves somewhat because their government is much more fragile
This episode Hugh and Ciarán discuss the EU rotating presidency, what is it? Should it exist?
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Show Notes Pie in the sky A Better Rotating EU Presidency The rotating presidency as it currently exists is part of the intentionally confusing bullshit... It's often referred to as rotating EU presidency.. which is misleading since it's presidency of the Council of the European Union. The one with the 28 government ministers changing depending on the topic under discussion https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidency_of_the_Council_of_the_European_Union -------------- - Rotates every 6 months - groups of 3 decide on 18 month long term agendas... (currently Romania, Finland and Croatia. ) Current agenda? - https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/council-eu/presidency-council-eu/ ummm... so it's an administrative role? Why does it get covered like it's more important? It's second role? Representing the Council in relations with the other EU institutions - so... nothing? The European Council and Parliament likely see themselves as more legitimate. Does this get Finland any extra leverage? Not really
How'd we end up with this nonsense? To some extent the Lisbon treaty messed things up by separating the European Council and the Council of the European Union. Pre 2007 you could argue it made more sense but... now.. I mean isn't this Tusk's job effectively?
It also used to have a foreign affairs component but the Commission now has a commissioner for that.
The diminished powers are brought up as good things Because people are unhappy with the current Romanian government it was cited as good thing by the Guardian that it doesn't have much power other than meeting agenda setting.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/30/romania-to-take-over-eu-presidency-amid-fears-for-rule-of-law
Didn't we hear something about corporate sponsorship? Romanian Presidency was sponsored by Coca-Cola, and the current Finnish Presidency is being sponsored by BMW.
There's an open parliamentary question to the Commission asking why this is allowed since it seems like an obvious conflict of interest (From a Cs MEP from Spain (Renew))
"Are there plans to introduce rules on such practices, which harm the Union’s independence, with the aim of prohibiting them?"
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/P-9-2019-002381_EN.html
A GUE/NGL MEP from Réunion (so France..) Tounous Omarjee asked the Council itself for clarification on whether details are published about this nonsense
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/P-8-2019-001212_EN.html
The council passed the buck:
"The organisation of the Presidency, including a decision to seek sponsorship for elements of the Presidency, is a matter for the Member State authorities concerned. It is not for the Council to reply to questions that are the responsibility of its Presidency"
A Croatian PR firm has a blog post suggesting how to be ready to sponsor events to get exposure for Croatian businesses:
https://www.404.agency/en/news/how-benefit-croatian-presidency-eu-council/
This isn't inherently bad but it's a sign of what the rotating presidency is now
Healthcare models in the EU A lot of focus, especially in the US is on "Europe has universal social medicine" but the reality is much more complicated. Could do some examples such as: - Germany's weird insurance system - Ireland is garbage - The NHS - Whatever Sweden does??? - Greece and economic problems does what?
The EU does health good? Well... sort of? It's not done at an EU level so you have different systems per country and even then access will differ even if the system sounds the same.
Health insurance card thing (E111)? Get it out of the way quickly because for those from outside the EU it probably seems confusing.
Since 2004/05 there's been a card for all the EEA countries and Switzerland which makes traveling in Europe easier - the idea being you're covered by your home country's system so the state you're visiting will get reimbursed by your country of residence, where you qualify for health coverage anyway.
It's for emergency care and ongoing care for chronic illnesses (e.g. you can't travel because you need dialysis - you could get it once in the country you're visiting during your trip)
Health Consumer Powerhouse A Swedish think tank that produces comparisons of healthcare systems across Europe via their production of the EuroHealth Consumer Index ranking systems.
I'd normally be skeptical about a think tank that advises on health policy but it really seems like a useful relative metric
They use a 1000 point scale to compare countries. It makes for an interesting but long read on the topic.
https://healthpowerhouse.com/publications/
Some takeaways that are generally relevant when considering healthcare:
- Spending money is not necessarily good. It is cheaper to run a system with lower waiting times inherently... but also spending money is good because it gets you there... there's a sweet spot.
- This seems to largely come from referral systems intended to prevent clogging up of specialist time.. but there's a clear relationship between overall waiting time for specialist treatment and whether you have to go through a referral system. Many of the best funded systems have this and it affects their waiting times negatively.
- There are some standards they've picked as cut offs such as particular waiting times (CT scan 7 days, GP same day access, interestingly they used Paediatric Psychiatry access to give an example of a hard to access service and used that as a kind of bonus question to divide up results). Ireland has a better system in theory than some other countries but it has by far the worst waiting times scores...
- A 6th of the whole score is access to prevention, again hammering home the "your system can sound good on paper but...".
- Then there's access to new drugs, which really pushes down the less wealthy countries... Western European countries end up near the top partially because of this as a factor.
- "With the possible exception of Switzerland and The Netherlands, there are no countries, which excel across the entire range of EHCI indicators.". They point out specifically Sweden as an example where it's mostly great but the waiting times have become a problem for a number of key services.
- Money doesn't buy accessibility (that also requires thought and planning) but it does buy better outcomes... There's a pretty clear correlation between discharge/death ratios and per capita spending
This is the wonky way of looking at how they compare, and the main take away is that generally Europe does healthcare okay.. but everywhere in Europe (except apparently Switzerland) messes it up in some key way. Things that relate to progressive socialized medicine:
- End user cost
- Inequalities (e.g. Italy is one public system but they note Rome and the North score well but the South scores badly...). In systems public and private care these are of course more class orientated than regional alone (e.g. Spain)
- Complexity of the system for the end user
Some types of system seem more prone to these than others. Ideal system? Ehhhh
A monstrous spreadsheet of most European countries categorised by my somewhat arbitrary system:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dLHD6dln6UExBU9KKV4wXuXXaMP70UALFyDe6IF7Gv8/edit#gid=0
This Hugh and Ciarán discuss the possible demise of the nightmare coalition...
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Show Notes Have you considered Matteo Renzi? Timeline: - Someone in la Lega can read polls apparently (they could win 37% of the vote) - Salvini announced he was putting in a no confidence vote in his own government... after only 14 months - This day last week our pal Renzi started talking about a caretaker government - Salvini said everyone is a self interested politician other than him "Under-the-table stitch-ups, palace intrigues, technocrat or caretaker administrations will not stop Italians who want a strong government," - Everyone got together and kicked the can down the road (https://www.thelocal.it/20190815/how-an-unexpected-alliance-thwarted-salvinis-bid-for-a-snap-election-in-italy). MS5 and PD voted against no confidence. There's going to be another on August 20th
5* didn't realise "term" is a variable length unit apparently https://www.politico.eu/article/5stars-leaders-di-battista/
He got grumpy he wasn't Prime Minister basically... https://www.dw.com/en/italy-s-salvini-says-will-submit-no-confidence-vote/a-49964202
He's finding it hard potentially to bring down his own government https://www.dw.com/en/italy-s-salvini-faces-mounting-opposition-to-snap-election-plans/a-49989563
I don't see the technocratic government going anywhere https://euobserver.com/news/145632
Fun list https://www.politico.eu/article/can-anyone-stop-matteo-salvini/
Who knew Conte was so popular?
The Italians have that stupid bonus seats system though so Salvini is likely to be very powerful either way an election goes since they'll still probably win
https://jacobinmag.com/2019/08/salvini-lega-m5s-italy/
The Italian left hasn't learned any lessons from their decline...
Also there's a strange back and forth where PD vote with la Lega on some things and 5* on others... the actual government itself doesn't seem to agree on much
"This was apparent in the final act of the M5s-Lega government, a parliamentary dispute over the TAV high-speed rail line being built from Turin to Lyon. Since its foundation in 2009, M5s has strongly opposed TAV on both cost and environmental grounds, and after Conte said last week that the project would nonetheless be going ahead, Di Maio’s party tabled a motion in the Senate to abandon it. This failed, as the Lega made a bloc with the PD to proceed with its construction."
Voter reform carrot MS5 strongly wanted to decrease the number of members of parliament by half... Salvini was on board and tried to use it to get them to back elections. 5* pointed out this would take too long to also have an election soon...
A solo episode with Hugh in response to a Patreon question box question. What is up with the Albanian local elections? What's the deal with that?
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Show Notes Also happening... Albania is a place still From our suggestion box Diarmuid Burke asks: The 2019 Albanian local elections. Loads of major parties didn't take part in protest of the Government and the whole thing looks to be a shit show.
Background People may remember there were mass protests against rises in student tuition fees that went on for months earlier this year... that was something very much on the surface of what is a barely functioning system.
- The Judiciary is largely (especially at the high levels) suspended awaiting vetting into their finances (a 2016 law aimed at cleaning up the system)... this plays in again later
- The parliament isn't really functioning because all the opposition parties are protesting its legitimacy. Over 40 of the 140 MPs resigned in protest in March (https://www.euronews.com/2019/02/22/albanian-opposition-in-mass-resignation-move-to-demand-fresh-elections) - so not all but a large chunk. The EU "condemned" this move...
- The President called to delay the local elections because the opposition were planning on boycotting... He wanted it to be delayed until October.. Rada overruled him with the election commission siding with Rada and holding the elections.
So? Well Rama's Socialist party ran unopposed in half of the regions and against "weak" candidates in the other half.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/07/disputed-election-leaves-albania-democracy-tatters-190701195743565.html
What's their beef? Well...
The opposition parties don't agree on much.. but they all think Rada was involved in electoral fraud and mass corruption. They have some solid ground about Rama...
For a start there's people in the Socialist party who have some bad history with the former communist establishment (Rama nominated the interior minister at the time involved in crackdowns on protests as speaker of the house)
Then there's the tapes... They were floating around after some transcripts were posted online in January but Bild (everyone's favourite piece of garbage) published the recordings in June. They're not great.
There's recordings of Socialist party officials talking about how to buy votes with known organised crime gang Durrës. There's also tapes of Rama talking with other party members about the conspiracy... showing he knew it was happening.
This triggered June 10th mass protests - which meant the President wanted to cancel the elections. Rama says he's looking into impeachment because of this... The court that would normally adjudicate these conflicts is again not in session...
Some fun aftermath:
- Rama is planning on suing the journalist Peter Tiede who published the wiretaps..
- The Albanian prosecutors are investigating the leak but don't appear to be doing anything about the information on the tapes (it's been almost 3 years - these relate to the 2017 election...)
- They're also investigating the opposition leader for links to a Russian company alleged to be a plot to destabilise Albania... Which I mean.. yeah probably it is.
https://exit.al/en/2019/06/21/a-guide-to-the-albanian-electiongate-and-political-crisis/
https://balkaninsight.com/2019/02/15/albania-opposition-prepares-major-protest-against-the-government/
https://www.dw.com/en/protesters-in-albania-again-demand-prime-minister-rama-quit/a-49518402
International Observers say what? The EU and US have generally been cool with the election happening and against the government protests. Why? Because Rama is doing the reforms they want. Long term they think the status quo is fine as long as the judicial and other reforms continue, regardless of the shorter term problems for actual Albanians.
It's generally messy and isn't going to get resolved soon. This is probably one of the few times I think installing a technocratic government to keep things ticking along for a while and replace everyone running the prosecutor's office in the process is probably the sensible outcome.
This week we discuss is the Ukraine elections, oh boy that Servent of the People party, is ho boy, oof. In our "No Elections Left Behind" section!
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Show Notes Ukrainian parliamentary election https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Ukrainian_parliamentary_election Genuinely unprecedented and unique election: - First ever in Ukrainian history since independence to have a majority - 60% of new members of parliament will be first time politicians - major parties took enormous hits across the board (https://www.rferl.org/a/zelenskiy-on-course-for-majority-in-parliament/30069728.html)
What's their deal? Zelensky is so new to politics it's hard to box him under any umbrella other than extreme reforms. His party says their ideology is libertarianism and are generally pro strengthening EU ties.
Some highlights currently on the table from their manifesto:
- Replacing their hybrid FPTP and party list system with party lists only (this has actually now happened)
- A mechanism to recall members of parliament via no-confidence from voters
- Some currently not well defined direct democracy measures
- "re-launch relations with Ukraine's closest neighbors in the West"
- Reform of law enforcement agencies
Which seems to be a mix of reducing regulation on financial crimes but also holding police officers to account... and also gun rights? * A lot of "audits" into how almost everything works
Very new party There are concerns of many of the new party MPs being... well of mixed quality and lacking due diligence in candidate selection. However, the election went well by recent Ukranian standards from a democratic perspective.
"votes did not go towards the “lesser evil” as before; voting for rather than against something. This is a rare achievement in the region and an essential shift for the country’s democracy towards maturity."
http://neweasterneurope.eu/2019/07/24/the-new-ukrainian-parliament-at-first-glance/
Honourable mention https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voice_(Ukrainian_political_party)
Russian Tensions The security service said it detained the Russian tanker in a Ukrainian port on Wednesday 24th of July. Authorities said the tanker was involved in blocking Ukrainian vessels from sailing through the Kerch Strait in November. Russia alleged the vessels breached its territorial waters.
The Ukrainian Security Service, also known as SBU, is still led by an ally of Ukraine’s former president, Petro Poroshenko,
The 10-member crew of the Russia’s tanker was allowed to disembark and leave Ukraine since they were not involved in November’s incident, Russian human rights ombudswoman Tatyana Moskalkova said.
Russian ships fired on and seized the Ukrainian vessels on Nov. 25 in the Kerch Strait, located between the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. Ukraine has insisted the vessels were in international waters when Russia intercepted them.
https://apnews.com/e212d39680f349a0b8e787d4f45ad250
It's a solo episode with mem, Ciarán! Enjoy my take on the current government formation in Spain, which just seems like the PSOE has kinda reluctantly stumbled into the correct decision.
Our Patreon bonus episode on how to reform the EU. First we discuss the much touted Macron reform and then explain why they're lazy. The we have our own list of short and long term noodlings.
This is the first of our bonus episodes supported by our generous Patreon supporters, unlocked after a month behind the cruel capitalist paywall - but what are you gonna do about it?
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Reform Europe Describe your idea for how to reform the EU If you think Macron is an asshole, maybe you can do better?
Pappa Macron's Vision: Everyone remembers his fun letter:
https://www.elysee.fr/emmanuel-macron/2019/03/04/for-european-renewal.en
But there were positions before this, mostly economic...
Generally it was a two speed Europe including:
- EU finance minister.
- Establish a joint eurozone budget.
- Institute a body tasked with overseeing bloc-wide economic policy.
Yeah cool that was early 2018. Then we had his EU campaign open letter to Europe stuff:
https://www.elysee.fr/emmanuel-macron/2019/03/04/for-european-renewal.en
We talked about this in a previous episode (https://previouslyineurope.simplecast.com/episodes/cryptographically-secure-renaissance-7b5cf31d)
Politico had a pretty clear summary that wasn't written in prose (https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-europe-renaissance-vs-reality/)
AKK in response to Macron said some shitty things Mostly about migration, protecting borders.
Also getting rid of the Strasbourg parliament and taxing EU officials. You know the big ticket reforms...
https://www.dw.com/en/angela-merkel-successor-akk-responds-to-emmanuel-macrons-vision-for-europe/a-47840072
Manu want input from citizens apparently Or so he says. Once the new executive is in place he thinks everyone should get together and somehow get input form citizens too to work out priorities for the next 5 years so here we go...
https://www.euractiv.com/section/eu-elections-2019/news/macron-wants-a-convention-to-reform-europe/
Some actual reforms maybe? Short Term (1 commission cycle) * Make transparency register mandatory * End tax havens… possibly a common corporation tax minimum * Change migration policy. Stop: * Deportation to unsafe territories * Don’t spend money on exporting prevention to foreign powers * Maybe reparations for the colonial holdings? * Change framework in a way that the focus of the EU in terms of migration isn’t for migration control, but for international development * Fix the Euro - See European Spring section, both short and long * EU election reform: * Put the EU parties on the voting ballots as well as the local party * Get rid of the parliament “groupings” because they’re really just parties. The requirement for speaking time and funding in the parliament can just be bumped down to the party level, don’t make them separate. This both makes it more similar to systems they’re familar with but also is less stupid. * Council of the EU and the European Council * Name change! Just European Senate: * 2 seats per country, 1 permanent (appointed like a cabinet position). Other is head of state * With proxy voting for obvious reasons * Fixes the confusion, means there’s someone actually on the ground who can give heads of state a skinny
Long Term * Welcome in refugees * Citizens assemblies to assist in drafting a better EU constitution - i.e. a democratic constitutional convention * Get rid of Strasbourg * Probably long term to figure out what to do with the building and not annoy current French President * EU commission is more complicated * Our idea would be for Prime Minister styley and make it an actual parliament. Not like that stupid French parliament. Commission President is elected and approved by the new Imperial Senate. I am the Senate… * Commissioners are doled out sort of like they are now. * Figure out a way to make national voting allowed for EU ex-pats...
This week we discuss the garbage that is the Greek elections, oh boy this electoral system is a hot mess. In our "No Elections Left Behind" section!
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Show Notes No Elections Left Behind 2019 Greek legislative election https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Greek_legislative_election
Why pick one electoral system when you could do them all at once? So... there's 300 seats that go in this order:
- 3% national vote requirement to win seats and used to calculate who gets leftover seats
- 12 are national single constituency using PR
- There are 7 first past the post seats... (because they're small population constituencies)
- 231 are multi-member constituencies using PR
- 50 go to the largest party (explains Syriza's large drop)
They passed a law in 2016 to get rid of the majority seat bonus but it won't come into effect until the next election because Syriza didn't have the votes (they needed a super-majority).
Did someone win? Yes... because of the 50 bonus seats New Democracy have a majority of 8 seats and don't need a coalition
New who? "Democracy" apparently Turnout has a big effect on this.. it's complicated because it's been said that although there's mandatory voting the quality of the electoral rolls makes that basically impossible to enforce in any way and apparently turnout was only 57.9%
This has created the interesting outcome where ND actually received more votes in the last election they did will in (2009 when turnout was 70%) and they didn't even win that election!
This result is the support Syriza had when they formed their first coalition government.
They were still about 8 points in the lead so apparently it's a landslide
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jul/07/greeks-choose-between-beach-and-ballot-in-first-post-debt-bailout-poll
They have a record of changing the electoral law to be less proportional... so the changes to get rid of the
General takes:
- https://www.euronews.com/2019/07/12/new-greek-prime-minister-faces-uphill-battle-to-fulfill-promises
Yeah because lowering taxes and being difficult with your neighbours is a cool plan which is only achievable at all because of the bailout exit
"After a decade of crisis, Greek politics are turning normal and boring"
In that they're becoming what they used to be... not in a boring way, in a worrying way where people have forgotten why the country needed a bailout in the first place
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/07/14/greece-just-threw-out-its-leftist-government-voted-conservatives-heres-what-you-need-know/
An inspection of the new government’s cast and programme shows that they are aiming for a Latvian solution to our permanent Great Depression: dealing with under-employment via the emigration of even more young people; subjecting the remaining workers to medieval terms and conditions; devastating small businesses whose market share will be taken over by troika-supported multinational oligopolies; using the banking system to launder dark money; surrendering public assets and the property of indebted households to assorted vultures; and leaving the state too impoverished to look after the weak but ever so generous to the strong.
https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2019/07/how-syriza-s-capitulations-allowed-greek-right-escape-dustbin-history
Self-loathing is a form of propaganda perfected by the New Democracy party as the representative of the Greek elite, but used extensively by many, including the country’s media. It consists of a number of stereotypes perpetuated within Greece and beyond it, that describe an uncultured, uneducated, work-shy, corrupt Greek people that deserves austerity and is to blame for the rightful subjugation of our sovereignty to the enlightened rule of western Europe. This rhetoric, although never explicit, has served to create a Greek mentality that places ‘Europe’ as a culture separate and superior to our own, and one towards which we should aspire, despite our ‘natural’ shortcomings.
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/can-europe-make-it/greek-visiting-hours-touring-debt-prison/
The party has been elected vowing to "kick start" the economy, with Mr Mitsotakis telling news agency AFP growth would be boosted "by private investments, exports and innovation".
New Democracy has also promised to lower taxes and privatise services in the country. Mr Mitsotakis has argued for cutting corporation tax and pledged to reduce youth unemployment - which has averaged 30% for more than 20 years."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-48905406
Syriza no bueno? The great success of the Brussels establishment was to convince Greeks that democracy cannot be allowed to affect economic decisions. The “Schäuble Doctrine” if you like.
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/can-europe-make-it/greek-visiting-hours-touring-debt-prison/
Syriza sold the railways for €43 million; I did a back-of-the-envelope calculation and worked out they’d have got more money tearing up the rails and selling them as scrap metal. Or take gambling — Syriza enabled the deployment of thirty-five thousand poker machines by a private company, exploiting a bankrupt people with the fake promise of easy winnings.
https://jacobinmag.com/2019/06/yanis-varoufakis-interview-greece-european-elections
The Tsipras government has undertaken drastic cuts in public spending, furthered deregulation, and extended privatization as well as squeezing wages, pensions, and social benefits. It has especially reduced public investment, while raising indirect and direct taxation to unprecedented levels, ruthlessly hitting low- and middle-income households.
Most notable in recent months is the way in which pressure on the Greek banks has driven a rise in evictions and home foreclosures. If once Syriza itself raised the slogan “no homes in the hands of banks,” today it is cracking down on protestors trying to stop the auctioning of houses. New laws threaten prison for those who interfere with the auction process — in fact, arrests of the government’s critics have already begun.
But confronted by the pressures generated by its own bailout, the Tsipras government has passed legislation to punish any action that aims at preventing auctions of foreclosed properties, with penalties varying from three to six months in prison.
https://jacobinmag.com/2018/10/syriza-repression-foreclosure-banks-tsipras/
This week we discuss the hot mess that has been the squabbling and horse trading over EU top jobs. It's a bad look. Have you considered any of them? We certainly hadn't...
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Show Notes Have you considered... Council President Charles Michel Be in the room is apparently good enough After losing an election and being likely kicked out of office once the dust settles but now he gets to live on as council president
His party was never exactly winning anyway - he became PM in a very fractured coalition including the Flemish Nationalists... who eventually quit over the Compact for Migration from the UN... which really only encouraged not being shit to migrants and was completely non-binding...
https://www.politico.eu/article/the-belgian-top-jobs-european-council-charles-michel/
Did he achieve anything?
Well one of his big headline achievements is lowering corporation tax and increasing the tax write off of capital gains from share dividends (https://news.pwc.be/belgian-corporate-tax-reform-enacted-just-in-time-for-the-xmas-new-year-celebrations/)
So... yeah the big business busting EU as brought to you by Charles Michel.
In terms of having someone who will generally get on well with most EU member leaders sure... but in terms of record he's not great
Parliament President David Sassoli Who now? One of the least exciting PD party members from Italy (yes including our pal Matteo Renzi).
In keeping with all the rest of these choices they smell a bit like the status quo nobody likes. Former EP vice-president becomes president because the EPP didn't put a candidate forward in order to drum up support for their council president candidate.
He's the least interesting person they could probably have nominated and got someone without a big presence and likely not very influential or indicative of a "strong parliament
https://www.dw.com/en/european-parliament-who-is-david-sassoli/a-49455297?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
European Parliament picks Italian socialist as new president
Italian socialist, David Sassoli, was Wednesday elected president of the European Parliament for two and a half years, replacing another Italian, Antonio Tajani. In a second ballot, Sassoli, secured 345 votes, with 334 needed to win it. The national-conservative's Jan Zahradil, got 160 votes, Green Ska Keller got 119 votes and the leftist candidate, Sira Rego, 43 votes. A total of 667 votes were cast, 37 of which were blank.
https://euobserver.com/tickers/145350
Second ballot for presidency of EU parliament needed
Italian Socialists & Democrats MEP David Sassoli came seven votes short in the first round of voting for president of the European Parliament. He received 325 votes, while 332 were needed. Czech conservative Jan Zahradil came second, with 162 votes, followed by German Green Ska Keller (133), and far-left Spanish Sira Rego (42). All candidates proceeded to the second round of voting, which will start at 11:40AM.
https://euobserver.com/tickers/145349
Christiane Lagarde ...
Josep Borrell
Report: Israel wary of new EU foreign policy chief
The EU's new foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, is expected to be tough on Israel, an Israeli official told The Jerusalem Post. "It won't be a piece of cake with him," the unnamed official said. "Ideologically, we know exactly where he comes from," the official added, citing Borrell's record of criticising Israeli violence against Palestinians. Borrell worked on a kibbutz when young, but later "became very critical," the official said.
https://euobserver.com/tickers/145363
This very funny video of him on "Conflict Zone"
https://twitter.com/joethebrew/status/1111162199462993920
Ursula von der Leyen Weber has been out of the running realistically for weeks because the S&D and liberals don't like his track record of being cosy with Orban. Orban doesn't like him because he's suddenly switched to shitting on Orban once he was in the running for a top job...
The EPP countries plus ALDE and S&D would have been able to get Timmermans through if they wanted to keep the lead candidate system.. they chose not to in order to install someone from the EPP
Other than Merkel who actually seemed to be trying to get Timmermans through with their weird G20 compromise
https://twitter.com/rdanielkelemen/status/1146809381142564864?
The Germans are the last happy The SPD are grumpy as fuck:
Martin Schulz described Von der Leyen as “the government’s weakest minister”, while his SPD colleague Sigmar Gabriel, a former vice-chancellor, called her nomination “an unprecedented act of political trickery”.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jul/04/germans-condemn-own-candidate-for-top-eu-job-ursula-von-der-leyen
A majority of German's polled said she was a bad choice, including 45% of CDU/CSU voters (only 47% said she would be good).
Juncker: 'I was first and last Spitzenkandidat'
The outgoing EU Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker said Friday (5 July) at a press conference in Helsinki that the nomination of his successor, Ursula von der Leyen, and others to the EU's new leadership "was not very transparent." Juncker said that the 'Spitzenkandidaten' process of nominating the parliament election winner to the top commission job "unfortunately didn't become a tradition". "I was the first and last Spitzenkandidat," he quipped.
https://euobserver.com/tickers/145379
Ursula von der Leyen: Indebted to Macron
A von der Leyen nomination strengthens Macron's position in Europe's sensitive power game, especially within Germany. She will be indebted to the French president, since he paved the way for her in the first place.
https://www.dw.com/en/ursula-von-der-leyens-eu-nomination-is-a-win-for-emmanuel-macron/a-49494510?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
Poll: most Germans unhappy with EU choice von der Leyen
Only one-in-three Germans agree with the EU leaders' choice of Ursula von der Leyen to lead the European Commission, according to an ARD opinion poll. 56 percent said they did not agree with the decision. Separately, two-thirds of the participants believed that the German state was too lenient with neo-Nazis and the extreme right. 71 percent believe there is a significant danger of far-right attacks.
https://euobserver.com/tickers/145374
The Bundestag is currently investigating Flintenuschi
The Bundestag, the German parliament, is currently holding hearings into the affair, including accusations that von der Leyen’s office circumvented public procurement rules in granting contracts worth millions of euros to the firms. Those hearings have taken a dramatic turn in recent days as testimony from key witnesses appeared to confirm suspicions of systematic corruption at the ministry.
Along with that she's been criticized for big cost overruns on navy refurbishment projects... So not great in general
She generally gets props for being moderate on things like quotas for women on company boards... but there's a lot to be ignored if you're to hold her up as an reasonable consensus candidate
https://www.politico.eu/article/ursula-von-der-leyen-biography-career-inconvenient-truth/
That would be nice... a Green New Deal. Hugh and Ciarán go through the idea of a European Green Deal and who's talking about it and how.
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Show Notes GND Stuff Hugh Read Not going to repeat their bullet points but the New Economics Foundation and DiEM25 (among others) is the best point by point plan around (though the site misses some details).
https://www.gndforeurope.com/10-pillars-of-the-green-new-deal-for-europe
The general point is you could do a successor to the Junker plan (European Fund for Strategic Investments) but make it both better and geared specifically towards Green investment via Bonds backed by the ECB and bond markets.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/05/this-is-what-a-green-new-deal-for-europe-could-look-like/
Ireland's dealy is okay looking but wreaks of the long term planning with little short term change
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/17/ireland-to-unveil-bold-plan-to-tackle-climate-emergency
Sinn Fein is grumpy because they've suggested a lot of it before
Our old pal, former UK Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change, wrote a relatively long piece in Prospect magazine (hmm). It's a pretty good read and makes some relevant general points:
- Short term you need plans too. You're not going to be in government forever so making plans for 2050 is great but if you don't have short term plans that get you ahead of the overall goal you're not going to make it
But looking back, it’s hard not to regret that we weren’t more imaginative. Some of our actions then—such as the car scrappage scheme—now rank as missed opportunities. Yes, the new cars being subsidised were lower in emissions than the old bangers they replaced, but how much better placed might the UK car industry be today if all the resources had gone into getting ahead of curve on battery-powered cars and infrastructure?
- This idea has been around for quite some time and hasn't come to enough
The phrase “Green New Deal” is a shorthand for the approach we need: tackling climate change through a great civil mobilisation of people into purposeful work. It was coined in Britain, under the auspices of the New Economic Foundation a decade ago, although the time didn’t prove right.
- The need to argue for a clear plan and keep pushing for it
We can agree that children need an education, but each party has its own ideas on how it is best done, and the contest between them is healthy. If the climate needs a similar contest of plans, we shouldn’t shrink from that.
- Especially on the details, "Net zero carbon" means different things to different people
There is a reason why Britain’s carbon emissions are so low: we’ve outsourced them. Steel made here in the UK counts towards our emissions. But steel made in China, shipped to the UK, used by a UK manufacturer and then sold to a UK consumer counts towards China’s emissions—and not ours.
Quoting Dieter Helm professor of energy policy at Oxford: "If you really want to reduce global warming… it doesn’t matter where emissions take place, and therefore the only way to judge it is with carbon consumption."
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/features/ed-miliband-climate-change-economy-save-planet#widget_user
GND Stuff Ciarán Read PODEMOS’S GREEN NEW DEAL
an interview with TXEMA GUIJARRO a member of Spanish Parliament with Podemos, the interview was conducted 28/4/19
In response to concrete left vision
"The two touchstones of our program are our Green New Deal package and the series of measures we are proposing as a response to the demands of the feminist movement.
If I had to highlight two clear transformative proposals, in particular, I would first point to our commitment to establish a number of strategic public companies. This will include a state investment bank so as to secure Spain’s energy transition to 100 percent renewables over the next 20 years.
We are also proposing to create a public energy company, building on the great work at a municipal level in places like Barcelona where we have been governing with our allies in Barcelona en Comú. The creation of a public distribution company will be key in a context in which we have to undertake a profound transformation of all energy production.
This will obviously come into conflict, however, with the interests of the existing energy giants. The energy market in Spain is really a cartel, with some of the highest prices in Europe. And so we are also aiming to challenge this capture of the market by establishing such a national company."
Drilling into this further TG brings up creating "a program of mass public employment, the likes of which have never really been seen in Spain before. We are talking about the creation of hundreds of thousands of new jobs."
The particular concern in Spain is Desertification where it's not unrealistic to say the Sahara starts in Spain now. The Sun and Waves are the major untapped energy sources
"My colleague Jaume Asens said the other day that if the planet was a bank, it would have been bailed out by now."
https://jacobinmag.com/2019/04/podemos-green-new-deal-pablo-iglesias/
THE GREEN NEW DEAL’S FIVE FREEDOMS
an outline of the benefits, maybe more social, of an American GND, inspired by FDR's Economic Bill of Rights (that never got fully realised)
Interesting things this article mentions are programs that would aid people by guaranteeing rights to food, water and a storm proof shelter as a means of avoiding the (almost inevitable) conflict that Climate Change would bring over such things.
The article argues a distinction between work and toil, freedom to work, freedom from toil.
Also suggests free public transport as a means of moving away from personal transport and a borderless society to help people deal with the local environmental catastrophes
https://jacobinmag.com/2019/02/green-new-deal-four-freedoms-fdr/
A GREEN NEW DEAL FOR THE UK
The Labour Party's John McDonnell on how a "Green Industrial Revolution" can advance a radical program against climate change
Jeremy quote "Just as the US GI Bill gave education, housing and income support to every unemployed veteran returning from the Second World War, the next Labour Government will guarantee that all energy workers are offered retraining, a new job on equivalent terms and conditions covered by collective agreements, and fully supported in their housing and income needs through transition."
John argues that Labour has a focus on guaranteeing a good quality of life for the working class during a Green transition as historically economic transitions have fucked them (mentioning Thatcher's deindustrialisation of the UK).
Mentions his thoughts that an invocation of the New Deal will work for Yanks but tying it to the idea of the industrial revolution would work better for Brits.
A pamphlet at a Labour Party Confrence (Green Transformation) argued for attempting to reverse the decline of biodiversity (amongst other things) which I don't see brought up enough. Removing British companies from the London stock exchange if they don't meet green criteria is also an interesting idea.
https://jacobinmag.com/2019/05/john-mcdonnell-labour-green-industrial-revolution/
A GREEN NEW DEAL FOR EUROPE
A Barcelona graduate, policy wonk and activist talk about their plan for the EU wide GND
Generating 100 percent of energy from renewables by 2050, improving drinking water infrastructure, guaranteeing a “green” job to every adult.
Points out that Podemos' green turn is relatively recent, Más Madrid's public object library plan is cool. Ada Colau of Barcelona has accomplished a lot in Barcelona which colours Spain's more municipalist solutions.
"As Jane McAlevey explained in a recent article for Jacobin, the much-needed alliances between trade unions and environmentalists remain rare." pointing to union examples of advocating for expansion of airports etc etc.
"Similarly in France, Emmanuel Macron has abandoned his initial “environmentalist” posture — as a petition signed by more than two million people recently reminded him. Indeed, his only green minister, the well-known activist Nicolas Hulot, resigned after noting the president’s indifference towards climate questions." The article points out that the actions of the green parties in France/Germany are insufficiently radical to combat climate change.
https://www.jacobinmag.com/2019/05/europe-ecosocialism-green-new-deal-labour-melenchon-podemos
PIE IN THE SKY: workplace temp regulation
That would be nice... an EU Wide Minimum Wage. Maybe it wouldn't be? At least not exactly as the S&D have previously said would be good.
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That would be nice... an EU Wide Min Wage At a public debate in Warsaw, Poland, Mr Timmermans said: "We need a minimum wage in the European Union.
"Equal to 60 percent of the median wage in every member state, I mean."
this factcheck from Euractiv is terrible https://www.euractiv.com/section/eu-elections-2019/news/fact-check-is-equal-eu-minimum-wage-possible-as-bulgarian-socialists-claim/
doesn't go into supposed policy or really where the calculations are coming from really (there's or the BSP)
Macron is talking about it https://news.un.org/en/story/2019/06/1040251
Merkel is talking about it (kinda) https://www.politico.eu/article/german-chanellor-angela-merkel-calls-for-comparable-minimum-wage-across-eu/
- Italy has a sectoral collective bargaining system involving unions meaning there's a minimum wage but it differs from industry to industry (the lowest is agriculture at 874.65p/m or 5.47p/h)
- Austria has a sectoral collective bargaining system as well, but a minimum has been set by these collectives (1500p/m) and you also get 14 monthly paychecks (holiday bonus and Christmas bonus) this results in an effective hourly minimum wage of 14.20p/h before tax
- Cyprus has a set of different minimum wages for certain situations. These were set by the government but don't cover everything.
- Sweden has a sectoral collective bargaining system involving unions
- Denmark has a sectoral collective bargaining system involving unions
- Finland has a sectoral collective bargaining system involving unions
Some official stats from Eurostat:
- https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/-/DDN-20190131-2 (general levels)
- https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Minimum_wage_statistics&stable=0&redirect=no#Minimum_wages_expressed_in_purchasing_power_standards (scaled for PPS)
- PPS definition https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Glossary:Purchasing_power_standard_(PPS)
An unexpected smart thing from New Labour? So the UK introduced theirs in 1998 at a now hilariously low £3.60 gradually increasing over time.
The economist even thought this very low rate was probably just fine as it wouldn't really impact anything directly unless the Bank of England did something in response
https://www-economist-com.libproxy.kcl.ac.uk/britain/1998/06/18/unveiled
They've just progressively been increasing it over time... not enough almost certainly but it was a good way to get the lever on the books. I dunno maybe?
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Show Notes Topic 1 2019 Danish general election Voting System D'Holdt method for multi-member constituencies with additional seats added to make up for proportional differences, i.e. to top up parties under-represented https://elections.oim.dk/media/10505/parliamentary-system-dk.pdf
Results/ Polling Opinion polling * https://www.politico.eu/2019-european-elections/denmark/ and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_Danish_general_election * Results - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Danish_general_election
Context Article about the current state of the Red-Green Alliance in relation to movements in recent Danish election: https://jacobinmag.com/2019/06/denmark-red-green-social-democrats-elections/ The Local covering the negotiating position of the other Red block parties and how they don't gel with the immigrant position of the Social Democrats (coverage elsewhere was similar, this included better/more quotes)
https://www.thelocal.dk/20190606/tough-weeks-ahead-as-election-winner-frederiksen-seeks-to-build-new-danish-government https://www.thelocal.dk/20190607/what-do-denmarks-left-wing-parties-want-in-talks-to-form-new-government
https://euobserver.com/tickers/144828
Topic 2 Have you considered Danish Collation Options? Which coalition is terrible, fine and actually good?
https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/politik/resultater/folketingsvalg
So I heard there was an election...
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Show Notes Topic 1 Lithuanian presidential election Russia-critical banker elected president of Lithuania
A former central banker, and political independent, Gitanas Nauseda won Lithuania's presidential election on Sunday against centre-right former finance minister, Ingrida Simonyte, in the second round of the elections. Nauseda will replace president Dalia Grybauskaite, often dubbed the Baltic nation's 'Iron Lady'. She could not run again after two terms in the post. Nauseda has pledged to maintain Grybauskaite's strict tone toward Russia.
https://euobserver.com/tickers/145013
Belgian Federal Elections https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Belgian_federal_election
Spanish Local and Regional Election Regional Elections, Spain is basically a federation 12/17 regions elected their parliament - The PSOE and Cs are up is the story there in 9 of 12 regions (Aragon, Asturias, Baeleric Isles, Cantabria, Canaries, Castile & Leon, Castille & La Mancha, Extremadura and Murcia) - The PSOE also made gains La Rioja (C’s held) and Navarre (C’s not present) and the C’s gained in Madrid while PSOE held - The PP and Podemos fell in 9 of 12 parliaments as well (Aragon, Asturias, Baeleric Isles, Canaries, Castille & Leon, Extremadura, La Rioja, Madrid and Murcia) - The PP was also down in Cantabria, Castile & La Mancha, making for a total of 11 of 12 (they don’t run in Navarre cuz Basque) - Podemos was kicked from Cantabria and Castile & La Mancha and also fell in Navarre (they lost seats in all 12 parliaments) - Vox got into 7 of the 12 parliaments (Aragon, Asturias, Baeleric Islands, Cantabria, Castile & Leon, Madrid and Murcia) out of the remaining 5 parliaments, they were next to receive seats in 4 of them (La Rioja is the exception) - Más Madrid is also a thing now, they split from Podemos. Juries still out on them. Local Elections - Same as Regional, PSOE up, Cs up, PP down, Podemos down - The Mas Madrid/Podemos split cost the left-wing control of Madrid and left-wing control of Zaragoza and Barcelona are also in question now (Ada Colau of Barcelona Mayor fame was super-cool god damn it)
Topic 2 EU Elections https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019EuropeanParliament_election
Welcome, this is a pro-Polish far-right podcast now... for electoral reasons! On today's episode, we chat about EU election nonsense and Theresa May resigning mostly.
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This week its Eurovision, Austria and Facebook's garbage ad policy... woop woop!
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Nonsense Section Eurovision Did you hear there was a Eurovision?
Duncan won for the Dutch with a medium quality Coldplay inspired thing (https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2019/may/19/eurovision-song-contest-2019-won-by-the-netherlands-duncan-laurence)
Low quality Madonna costs 1m https://www.dw.com/en/madonna-steals-the-show-at-eurovision-for-the-wrong-reasons/a-48791453
Iceland has Palestine banners confiscated
https://wiwibloggs.com/2019/05/19/iceland-ebu-issues-statement-following-hataris-banner-incident/239252/
Climate activists occupy German-Russian gas pipeline Five German climate activists climbed inside segments of the new Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany on Thursday, skateboarding inside, holding protest placards, and refusing to leave despite police appeals. One of them, calling himself Fynn, told the BBC he was fighting a "global struggle against fossil fuels", adding: "We are skating in the pipeline and it is fun!". https://euobserver.com/tickers/144923
Topic 1 In shock turn of events FPÖ are corrupt assholes... Who knew the ultra-far-right party would be also shady as fuck? Süddeutsche Zeitung releases secret recordings of the vice-chancellor Heinz-Christian Strache offering government contracts in return for election help from someone posing as a Russian oligarch's niece... This would involve the supposed oligarch buying a large stake in Austrian media and giving favorable coverage in exchange for political favors and what not... Using Orban's grip on the media as an example. If only they lived in the UK, USA or Australia where conservative politicians already have a friend with large amounts of media control... ------------- https://www.dw.com/en/opinion-austrias-far-right-show-their-true-colors/a-48791473
Kurz is calling for elections Which makes sense. It muddies him to keep the FPÖ around in government and his party is probably the one to gain from any hit they take with the electorate.
It kind of proves the "far right in the pocket of special interests and foreign donors" thing. Kurz also says the bits of the tapes where Strache claims to have dirt on Kurz and his orgies didn't influence his decision...
No new polling yet, but the ÖVP are comfortably in the lead still with the FPÖ in the mid 20s... ÖVP majority or minority government is not an impossible outcome
https://www.dw.com/cda/en/austrias-sebastian-kurz-calls-for-snap-elections-after-corruption-scandal/a-48789106
Topic 2 Facebook's EU Political Ad Policy Timeline: ### March FB announces you need to prove residence in the country you're advertising in to post political ads in the weeks running up to the election (https://www.politico.eu/article/facebook-rolls-out-political-ad-rules-ahead-of-eu-vote-election-transparency-campaign/) ### April EU is all like, hey wait a minute the EU commission advertises continent wide about the election and there are cross-country political grouping and campaigns that won't be able to advertise (https://www.politico.eu/article/facebook-european-elections-advertising-political-social-media-europe) Nick Clegg (former deputy PM of UK and all round nice guy who now works for facebook) tells Tajani to chill out because they'll make exceptions because there have been so many complaints. "It was only to stop outside influence, we're chill". The chairs of all the major European parties send Zukkey an open letter (https://g8fip1kplyr33r3krz5b97d1-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Open-letter-to-Mark-Zuckerberg.pdf, https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/apr/17/eu-tells-facebooks-nick-clegg-to-rethink-ad-funding-rules) They make a good case against the rules: > Article 10(4) of the TEU (Treaty of the European Union) clearly states that “Political parties at European level contribute to forming European political awareness and to expressing the will of citizens of the Union.” –not national awareness on the national level of national citizens. There are also weird business exceptions like "news publishers" are exempt? “They’ve made exceptions for media so why shouldn’t they make exceptions for political parties?” Sybren Kooistra, the campaign manager for the European Greens party. So everythings fine now right? Nick wouldn't do us like that... ### May Martin Selmayr (of inappropriate promotion fame) doesn't think so. He says the exceptions haven't really materialised (https://www.politico.eu/article/facebooks-political-ad-eu-election/). “There is no evidence that Facebook has corrected its rules, the status quo is in place,” said European People’s Party campaign manager Dara Murphy, adding that “any changes that would happen now would make almost no difference.”
What about the other platforms? Well I've seen plenty of EU Commission "please vote, here's how to vote" ads on twitter in the form of promoted tweets. According to Selmayr this still isn't possible on Facebook... which is pretty ridiculous seeing as the election is this week.
Google has very clear guidelines on how to become verified and what to do/not to do (https://support.google.com/adspolicy/answer/9211218). Basically you need to be pre-verified as registered in the EU before they'll approve you for election advertising. They worked this out back in November (https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-eu-election-google/google-reveals-new-policy-for-election-ads-ahead-of-eu-vote-bloomberg-idUKKCN1NR03C). If there are any problems they're not coming up in the media because of how much worse Facebook's rules are...
Twitter have a pretty similar policy of pre-verification of being based in the EU (https://www.politico.eu/blogs/eu-decides-2019-european-elections-blog/2019/02/twitter-expands-political-ads-rules-in-the-eu-ahead-of-parliament-election/). That was worked out in February
I guess at least they're trying? There's been a lot of coverage of their "election war room" in Dublin where people take down banned content and disinformation:
The idea is to have 40 people with at least one fluent in every EU national language to deal with take downs and disinformation campaigns relating to the election. It's a good idea but might not be enough (https://www.wired.co.uk/article/facebook-eu-election-war-room). I guess their "only in your country" rule makes this job a little easier.
In Italy they closed down a bunch of pages with millions of followers that was spreading bullshit https://www.eurotopics.net/en/219789/facebook-closes-23-accounts-in-italy# (pages reported by Avaaz https://secure.avaaz.org/page/en/ so I'm assuming mostly climate denial etc)
Great but the problem with a user generated content platform is they're always going to be missing things... Ai isn't a magic solution (https://www.theverge.com/2019/5/5/18530337/facebook-european-parlimentary-election-war-room-misinformation)
Maybe we need to accept it won't be perfect
This week it's just me, not much in terms of show notes because my space key is broken and it hurts my brain to type. Here's a link I mentioned though: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/12/its-hard-to-take-in-how-cyprus-serial-killings-left-country-reeling it's a good read on some stuff happening in Cyprus
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This is the first of our bonus episodes supported by our generous Patreon supporters, unlocked after a month behind the cruel capitalist paywall - but what are you gonna do about it?
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Show Notes: Slovenia 1. What is Slovenia? (CIA Factbook + How Voting/Gov/Parties work) 2. Big News in Little Slovenia 3. Why we don't talk about Slovenia?
The Google search result card text: Slovenia, a country in Central Europe, is known for its mountains, ski resorts and lakes. On Lake Bled, a glacial lake fed by hot springs, the town of Bled contains a church-topped islet and a cliffside medieval castle. In Ljubljana, Slovenia’s capital, baroque facades mix with the 20th-century architecture of native Jože Plečnik, whose iconic Tromostovje (Triple Bridge) spans the tightly curving Ljubljanica River.
The CIA has a more historical summary: The Slovene lands were part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire until the latter's dissolution at the end of World War I. In 1918, the Slovenes joined the Serbs and Croats in forming a new multinational state, which was named Yugoslavia in 1929. After World War II, Slovenia was one of the republics in the restored Yugoslavia, which, though communist, soon distanced itself from the Soviet Union and spearheaded the Non-Aligned Movement. Dissatisfied with the exercise of power by the majority Serbs, the Slovenes succeeded in establishing their independence in 1991 after a short 10-day war. Historical ties to Western Europe, a growing economy, and a stable democracy have assisted in Slovenia's postcommunist transition. Slovenia acceded to both NATO and the EU in the spring of 2004; it joined the euro zone and the Schengen zone in 2007.
Editorial version Small country with 2m people on the border of Italy... They disagree with Croatia as to where that border is (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Croatia%E2%80%93Slovenia_border_disputes)
Government? Slovenia has one! It's one of those fun "incomplete bicameral systems".
http://www.slovenia.si/slovenia/state/parliament-the-national-assembly/
National Assembly * Lower house * Actual power * 90 members * 1 for Hungarian and Italian minorities each
National Council * No real power (There is a very confusing description from their own website circa 2006 https://web.archive.org/web/20060422134553/http://www.ds-rs.si/en/index.htm) * Doesn't pass legislation, more one of those "we'll just correct that for you" bits of government. They have a delay type veto * "22 representatives of local interests, six representatives of non-commercial activities four representatives of employers and four of employees and four representatives of farmers, crafts and trades and independent professionals. "... so eh, yeah non-elected, but NOT like the house of lords kind of non-elected. They also have 5 year terms
President Mostly ceremonial, commander in chief, yadda yadda yadda
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NationalCouncil(Slovenia) Yes yes, but currently? Well... the 2018 election was fun.
It mostly started because of the 2017 Railway Referendum where some people didn't like a new railway like (but also there were calls of corruption and what not). The referendum passed to keep the railway project, but the supreme court deemed it unconstitutional because of government money being used to campaign for it (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017Slovenianrailwayreferendum#citenote-14)... So the PM resigned... the election went ahead in June but the government wasn't formed until September with a mega-coalition of 5(6?) parties (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/13thGovernmentofSlovenia)
The center right won the election but nobody would work with them (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SlovenianDemocratic_Party)
Reuters ran the unhelpful headline "Anti-immigration party wins Slovenia elections" (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-slovenia-election/anti-immigration-party-wins-slovenia-elections-idUSKCN1IY0V1)
Big News in Little Slovenia? * Well there was almost a big government deal with the Budget this year where the Left party supporting the minority government didn't like pension reforms but it ended up passing and overriding the upper house veto (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-slovenia-budget/slovenian-parliament-confirms-2019-budget-with-opposition-help-idUSKCN1R125S) * It seems like the government is pretty popular polling well ahead of their election results (https://pollofpolls.eu/SI)
Big News in Little Slovenia Also
- Retirement age has raised which people are upset by BUT pensions have gone up. 10% increase for men, 5% for women while the retirement age will increase by 9 years for men and 14 years for women.
- A court in Slovenia has sentenced a right-wing politician to eight months in prison for organizing a self-style militia that was filmed posing with weapons like axes and rifles.
https://www.rtvslo.si/slovenija/vsaka-pokojninska-reforma-zaostruje-pogoje-za-upokojevanje/482639
https://apnews.com/8110ca9c647140b8bc55a48c44781273
This week it's Spanish election coverage. Also a lot of nonsense from Europe's right-wing. Hooray!
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Show Notes Nonsense Section You'll be shocked to hear EKRE are assholes EKRE leader Mart Helme called the president "emotionally heated" after she walked out of the swearing in ceremony of their new Foreign trade and IT minister https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/03/estonia-minister-calls-first-female-president-emotionally-heated-woman This was because this the man in question, Marti Kuusik, was being investigated for domestic abuse and had recently been caught speeding with alcohol in his system... so a cool guy who you'd happily want to be present as head of the state for the country who's government he was being sworn into. He's since resigned. I think it lasted a day (https://news.err.ee/936301/new-culture-minister-kuusik-resignation-was-inevitable)
Right-Wing Group's Growing Pains
Orban being messy
Hungarian PM Viktor Orban hopes to forge a European pact with Italy's Matteo Salvini at a meeting in Budapest on Thursday. In an interview with La Stampa, Orban said "the EPP is preparing to commit suicide and wants to tie itself to the left...we need to find another path via cooperation with Europe's right wing". On migration, Orban called Salvini the "most important person in Europe today".
https://euobserver.com/tickers/144775
Swedish Democrats are dissappointed
Sweden Democrats are now not set to join a new Salvini-lead far-right group in the European Parliament, party leader, Jimmi Akesson told Dagens Nyheter. "I am disappointed," he said, to not have been invited. His party could however not work with "Russia friends from France" - a reference to Marine Le Pen, he added.
https://euobserver.com/tickers/144763
Salvini vs the Caliphate
“For our children, to leave behind an Islamic caliphate with sharia law in our cities is not something I want to do and I’m going to do everything in my power to avert this sad ending for Europe,” he said at a joint press conference with Orbán, who has used similarly incendiary rhetoric to rail against migration to Europe from Africa and the Middle East. Salvini made similar comments earlier this week in Italy.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/02/matteo-salvini-vote-for-nationalist-parties-stop-islamic-caliphate
Russia mustn't fall into China's Orbit says Women working with people very willing to fall into China's Orbit
Le Pen warns against pushing Russia 'into arms of China'
FN is now sexy, no longer anti-euro, anti-EU AND we've gone Green.
Also I'm real excited about this Salvini thing
https://euobserver.com/eu-election/144754
Danish Lawyer who's appealing against a conviction for racism is now running for office goody...
Rasmus Paludan of the The Stram Kurs, or Hard Line party believes in the deportation of all Muslims and the preservation of the country for its “ethnic community”
Paludan, whose videos on YouTube, eccentric fashion sense and penchant for stunts have long earned him a following among teenagers. Some of these videos he's burnt a Quaran and also said bad things about Africans which is what landed him the problems in courts.
Recent changes to the Danish electoral system (lowering threshold to 2%) means he may now have a chance.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/05/danish-far-right-party-stram-kurs-calling-for-muslim-deportation-to-stand-in-election
Topic 1 Snap Spanish Election Good fun was had by all ------------------------- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019Spanishgeneralelection
The news of Casado's revolution was greatly exaggerated. Apparently a hard right turn was not really what the PP voters wanted...
https://www.politico.eu/article/spain-conservative-revolution-pablo-casado-right-wing-election-2019/
A transition Spain is now properly a multi-party system and Sanchez has to accept that. To be fair in 2011 it was really a 2 party system (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011Spanishgeneralelection)
His prior performance as PM reflected that previous state of affairs https://jacobinmag.com/2019/04/psoe-pedro-sanchez-spain-elections-vox/
Spain, the post-amble Timmermans won't shut up There's been quite a bit of praise and use of this as a boon for the S&D in the run up to the EU election.
Timmermans wouldn't shut up about it during the Spitzenkandidaten (sans-weber) debate (https://www.politico.eu/article/timmermans-and-verhofstadt-spar-in-european-election-2019-debate/).
Saying that Weber can't be trusted because he was basically just the PP. Which being from the CSU isn't really an unfair comparison...
Vox under-performance? I mean... not really? They got 10.3%... which is around what they were polling. Sure some polls had them at 12-13% and estimates of high 20s to mid 30s seats (one had 42), but an average showed a reasonably steady 10%ish.
This brings in the frequent assumption of secret conservative or far right voters who don't show up in polls... Which is what fuels a lot of UK polling over estimating Conservative party polling after some upsets in the 80s and here was used to assume Vox would probably overperform.
They don't even have a massive voter base in Andalusia, which is supposed to be their home turf - they still came 4th (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resultsbreakdownofthe2019Spanishgeneralelection(Congress)#Andalusia)
Why there's still media attention around a mysterious silent majority of right wing voters is confusing because it has constantly failed to materialize (see Swedish Democrats UKIP in every general election, the past few Dutch election)
Their candidate in Barcelona said they'd get 18% of the vote because the polls weren't capturing their support - which is what every far right party says... but it doesn't materialize so why are we still talking about it.
Time for Dealz? No...
Sanchez wants a minority government again but Podemos have been pretty up front about not wanting to back that and to get into government. Sanchez will likely wait until after the upcoming local and EU elections to finalize anything as he can truck on as the "winner" into those.
Ciudadanos are out for sure... and if these trends continue they might become the new center right major party. The PP has a lot of dirt on it and it might continue to decline.
It's probably going to be long
https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/04/30/inenglish/1556608489_985863.html
Gaysper
Vox start a meme on Spanish twitter centered around a gay ghost, who we all now love
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/02/vox-partys-anti-lgbt-lord-of-the-rings-aragorn-tweet-slain-by-tiny-gay-ghost
This week it's Finnish and Ukranian election coverage. Along with that we have speculations as we received results from Spain!
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Show Notes Nonsense Section Extinction fun times So sort of nothing has happened (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/apr/25/extinction-rebellion-assessing-the-impact) but it seems like the public is generally on their side. With the obvious exception of the UK's gross right wing press. All reports seem to suggest the police weren't even particularly upset, but the Express and Sun decided to focus on the "privileged backgrounds" and the mess/disruption the protests were causing...
Spaaaain Another election... - Vox is getting in with a lot of seats - Socialists will come first but them plus Podemos won't be a majority so ???
https://www.euronews.com/2019/04/26/spain-election-2019-country-set-for-one-of-its-most-closely-contested-elections-in-decades?fromBreakingNews=1
Finnish parliamentary election https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Finnish_parliamentary_election
Results
101 seats to rule the 200 seat parliament
turnout: 68.7%
Social Democartic(S&D): 40 seats ^6
Finns (ECR): 39 seats ^1
National Coalition (EPP): 37 seats ^1
Centre (ALDE): 31 seats -18
Green League (G/EFA): 20 seats ^5
Left Alliance (GUE/NGL): 16 seats ^4
Swedish People's + Åland Coalition(ALDE): 10 seats ^0
Christian Democrat (EPP): 5 seats ^0
Movement Now (NI): 1 seat NEW
these parties gained a seat but got less of the vote than last time
The run up
The government collapsed because of the Centre Party trying to push through a healthcare bill that everyone hated, after failing to pass it Centre leader and PM Sipilä resigned AND THEN WAS IMMEDIATELY MADE PM AGAIN in a care-taking roll.
Also before that in 2017 a leadership change in the Finns Party meant that the party split and spawned Blue Reform.
The three party coalition of Centre, National Coalition and Blue Reform (formerly Centre, National Coalition and the Finns) was fairly shaky and the healthcare cuts proved to be an issue.
The Campaign
Oofa doofa. There was child sexual abuse scandal in the northern region of Oulu that resulted in a huge spike in support for the Finns Party, this criminal case has been noted as being the only ONGOING criminal case to be remarked upon by the press and politicians.
The election saw "an unusual level of aggression on the campaign trail".
In late March, a man struck Left Alliance candidate Suldaan Said Ahmed in the chest while calling him an infidel and pedophile a day after a man wearing logos of far-right anti-immigrant group Soldiers of Odin attempted to attack Foreign Minister Timo Soini of the Blue Party.
In lighter news: The Social Democratic party ran on a platform of raising taxes to fund the social welfare system (subtweeting at the Centre party).
Topic 1 Tonight the President of Ukraine will be Portrayed by Volodymyr Zelenskiy Ukraine Presidential Election https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019Ukrainianpresidentialelection
Now the coverage has turned to say Putin is shaking in his boots... sort of He apparently refused to congratulate him on the election win (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-election-volodymyr-zelensky-putin-congratulate-comedian-a8881051.html)
Seemed to offer talks on normalizing relations (https://www.wsj.com/articles/putin-shows-carrot-and-stick-to-new-ukraine-leader-11556210091)
Aljazeera saying Russian state TV took one last jab at Poroshenko for losing but shouldn't celebrate https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/russia-quick-celebrate-zelensky-victory-ukraine-190426092535517.html
Basically what if sure Russian helped Zelenskiy win in some way by shitting on the establishment... What if things get better? That's not good for Putin's grip on the Russian speaking world and his love of land grabbing when times get tough
It's been a week, where are our results? Well there's been the whole passport thing. Putin offered Russian passports to Russian speaking Ukrainians in contested regions... Zelenskiy said Russians should instead be asking for Ukrainian passports because they have freedom of speech and what not
“We will provide Ukrainian citizenship to representatives of all peoples who suffer from authoritarian and corrupt regimes. In the first place — the Russians, who today suffer probably the most,”
Seems more like a idealistic younger leader who doesn't like the corrupt cesspit his country's political class were running. Maybe it won't come to anything but it's unclear how he's a Putin installation
https://www.dw.com/en/ukraines-president-elect-offers-citizenship-to-russians/a-48519397
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukrainian-president-elect-volodymyr-zelenskiy-rejects-vladimir-putin-passport-offer/
Zelensky is the choice of Putin? This was a trending news story for a while:
Sure thing, the election being a mess might be a good thing for Putin (https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/03/29/ukraines-election-is-a-mess-and-thats-exactly-what-putin-wants-russia-nato-european-union-poroshenko-zelensky-tymoshenko/)
Also "dangerously pro Russian" based largely on Russia not being mentioned in his TV show...
https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/04/01/ukraines-tv-president-is-dangerously-pro-russian/
Zelensky is also in the pocket of an oligarch.. ? Possibly - it's unclear. A lot of takes have it as a given that Ihor Kolomoisky (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IhorKolomoyskyi owner of the TV station his show aired on) is pulling the strings.
But they dispute this (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-election-zelenskiy-oligarch/comedian-faces-scrutiny-over-oligarch-ties-in-ukraine-presidential-race-idUSKCN1RD30L) and again is it better to have a person who could go rogue or an actual corrupt oligarch..?
http://neweasterneurope.eu/2019/03/19/three-reasons-why-a-comedian-should-not-be-the-president-of-ukraine/
Results
Turnout: 62.07%
Zelensky: 73.22%
Poroshenko: 24.45%
Poroshenko is reported to have tweeted that "a new inexperienced Ukrainian president... could be quickly returned to Russia's orbit of influence."
Zelensky's party is named after the TV show he was in. Of their few stated positions they support the free distribution of medical cannabis, free abortion in Ukraine, the legalization of prostitution and gambling in Ukraine and against the legalization of weapons.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48007487
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ServantofthePeople(political_party)
This week it's all nonsense baby, from no show debates to Andorran elections, from uncool Germany to Estonia's very own nightmare coalition
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Show Notes Nonsense Section Andorran Parliamentary Election https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Andorran_parliamentary_election
Slovak National Party sneak in Amendment Banning Foreign national anthems Sometimes politicians don't read the things they vote on apparently... https://www.euronews.com/2019/04/08/is-your-national-anthem-a-criminal-record-it-is-in-slovakia-after-law-voted-in-by-mistake
Zalenskiy no-show at Debate
Poroshenko debates empty podium after opponent’s no-show
Incumbent Petro Poroshenko was left with no one to debate but himself on Sunday after his challenger in the presidential election did not show up to a major televised face-off.
Thousands had arrived at the Olympic Stadium in Kiev to watch Poroshenko go head to head with his opponent, comedian Vladimir Zelenskiy, but according to the BBC, the pair had never agreed on the date for the event.
Zelenskiy, who beat Poroshenko in the first round of the presidential election, had called for the debate to be held at the stadium and broadcast on all TV channels, but according to the BBC, Zelenskiy had wanted to hold the debate this coming Friday, two days before the run-off vote.
Left standing alone at the podium Sunday, Poroshenko used the event to answer journalists’ questions and attack his opponent
According to Radio Free Europe, the Olympic stadium said it had also received a request to hold a debate this Friday, meaning Zelenskiy could still show up then and speak to supporters alone.
https://www.politico.eu/article/petro-poroshenko-ukraine-election-debates-empty-podium-after-opponents-no-show/
S&D notice Romanian Social Democrats are really corrupt This took much much longer than expected. The Social Democrats have consistently been on the edge of EU investigation for their shady "reforms"... their EU friends only now notice. Maybe to avoid being called out by the EPP now they've gotten rid of Orban (sort of) https://www.politico.eu/article/romanian-ruling-party-hits-back-at-pes-over-freezing-of-relations-romania-eu-elections-brexit-epp-rule-of-law/?utmsource=RSSFeed&utmmedium=RSS&utmcampaign=RSSSyndication
How does US with Turkey
Erdogan and Putin in weapons deal incompatible with Nato
Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian president Vladimir Putin on Monday in Moscow discussed a deal for Turkey to purchase Russia's S-400 air defence missile systems. The weapons are incompatible with Nato defence systems, prompting US vice president Mike Pence to warn Turkey it must choose between being a critical player in Nato "or risk the security of that partnership by making reckless decisions".
US to lift arms ban on Cyprus in message to Turkey
US senators have introduced a bipartisan bill to lift an arms embargo on Cyprus amid heightened tension over Russian arms. The bill authorises €5m of military aid to Cyprus and Greece after Turkey defied the US by buying a Russian-made anti-aircraft system and challenged Cyprus on rights to new gas finds in the Mediterranean. The 1987 embargo was meant to help make peace in the frozen conflict on northern Cyprus.
https://euobserver.com/tickers/144643
https://euobserver.com/tickers/144616
LePen can't get a loan Mildly funny. Also Melenchon too... so it's probably not because she's a racist - more because she can't be trusted to pay back her debts and is constantly being fined. https://euobserver.com/tickers/144655?utmsource=euobs&utmmedium=rss
German isn't cool anymore The reason it mattered that Germany weren't selling weapons to the Saudis anymore was only because it wasn't sending components to France and the UK for the purpose... they're now excluded them so effectively they're selling arms to the Saudis again https://euobserver.com/tickers/144657?utmsource=euobs&utm_medium=rss
Estonia: coalition with far right agreed
Estonian centre-right parties unite to form government
Former MEP Kaja Kallas' liberal opposition party, Reform, came top in Estonia's election last month, but a deal between the liberal Centre party, conservative EKRE and the Fatherland party has now paved the way for liberal leader Juri Ratas to continue as the Baltic state's prime minister. Under the deal EKRE would have interior, environment, rural, trade and IT portfolios, while Fatherland would control defence, justice, foreign affairs and culture.
https://euobserver.com/tickers/144603
Spooooky Brexit Yes yes, everyone knows there's a Brexit extension that may or may not go until Halloween (ooooooo). The UK may have to run EU parliament elections.. which really messes up the polling and puts the S&D under 20 seats behind the EPP... so yeah left coalition fun times? Probably not, but.. eh. eh
This week Ciarán has left Hugh to his own devices where he asks Google whether Turkey even has elections
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Show Notes Turkish Local Elections For context when you Google Turkey from the UK you get in the "People also ask section": "Does Turkey have elections?" and "Is there democracy in Turkey" Needless to say some people will dispute this either way. The AKP aren't known for their chillness
So they did still win... Like with other examples of strongman led governments (cough Orban) we have the continuous problem that Erdoğan and his "Justice" and "Development" party is popular. It's not like they're running away with big majorities or the country is particularly gerrymandered, he comes away with vote shares which in certain countries with unfair voting systems bring large majorities and power. Erdoğan won the presidency with 52% of the vote and the AKP run a minority government in the parliament
Across the country they came away with ~42% of councilors on a similar share of the vote.
Erdoğan may not have absolute power but has a record of using what he has in garbage ways Let's not forget the immense brutal crackdown of the general public and especially the media following the coup attempt in 2016. This lead to a perpetual state of emergency so they could get their referendum through and giving Erdoğan's office of the presidency most of the country's power, removing the prime minister role altogether.
With great power comes blame for everything bad Turkey is in a recession
Regional separations
the local elections also proved that Turkey has millions of people who are ideological voters. A typical ideological voter rarely changes his or her political party. For example, the AKP easily secured a high percentage of the vote in cities such as Erzurum, Konya and Gaziantep, despite them feeling the most adverse effects of the recession in the country. But the CHP also has many loyal ideological voters in cities such as Izmir and Edirne. Similarly, the HDP is always supported in Kurdish-majority cities.
https://ahvalnews.com/local-elections/reflections-turkeys-local-elections
NB: Ahval is at least partially funded by the UAE so wee grain of salt, but I'm not sure how a multi-lingual newish Turkish news portal is supposed to make a lot of money. Their editor in chief seems fine https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yavuz_Baydar
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019Turkishlocalelections#Results
https://www.politico.eu/article/recep-tayyip-erdogan-loses-control-ankara-turkish-elections/
So what? Well they lost the mayoralty of the capital by 3%, which is a big deal. Other losses were in larger Turkish cities.
The big problem is Istanbul... The margin there was under a percent. The main opposition Republican People's Party candidate won but the AKP are demanding a recount. Things have gotten violent.
This in particular was a surprise because state media was heavily covering AKP candidates and not really the opposition...
Also
“The problem is not the recount of votes, but the rejection of objections when the (AKP) wins, and their acceptance when it loses,” Deniz Zeyrek of the opposition Sozcu newspaper wrote on Twitter.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/turkeys-opposition-worries-as-istanbul-votes-go-to-recount/2019/04/05/54acc6f6-579f-11e9-aa83-504f086bf5d6story.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019Istanbulmayoral_election
This week we discuss the Slovak presidential election and it's shiny new president while also chatting about the abundance of white people!
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Show Notes Nonsense Section European Parliament scales back publication of election polls https://www.politico.eu/article/european-parliament-scales-back-publication-of-election-polls/
Brexit Nonsense Very Briefly Jon Snow thinks the pro Brexit march was too white (https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/mar/30/channel-4-apologises-for-jon-snows-white-people-remark) but then apologises.
Also we could be heading to "meaningful vote 4"... No link required, I'm too depressed to find a reference
MEP errors mean European copyright law may not have passed https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/mar/27/mep-errors-mean-european-copyright-law-may-not-have-passed
Various news outlets have bad takes on this - (https://www.eurotopics.net/en/217021/opposition-to-eu-copyright-reform-growing). I particularly like the claim that Süddeutsche Zeitung puts forward where they say this is not dissimilar to the weapons, car and tobacco industries.. not noticing that the copyright pushers are the records industry (always nice to their artists), giant news conglomerates (with them excluded actually) and other "content producers". Google News is a different thing but this law is extremely broad.
Relatively good overview - https://www.theverge.com/2019/3/27/18283541/european-union-copyright-directive-internet-article-13
People might remember a previous episode Hugh did on this - https://simplecast.com/s/ed804f4b
Topic 1 Slovak Presidential Election
Results:
Čaputová wins with 40.6% in the first round and 58.4% of the vote in the second round. She is the first woman president of Slovakia (there's beena a woman PM though, Iveta Radičová) and will be it's youngest president when she's inaugurated in June.
The opponent Maroš Šefčovič got 18.7% in the first round and 41.6% in the second round. He's an independent but has the backing of the senior coalition partner party SMER-SD (S&D) and is seen as very establishment (he's been Slovakia's EU commissioner since 2009 and the Vice-Pres of the EU Comish since 2010 so yeah).
Her victory was not a shock in the polls by any stretch, both her victory in the first and second round was soundly predicted largely because she won the first round by 22 points.
Other fun fact is the turnout: the first round of 48.74% is the highest in modern Slovakian presidential elections (Since 1999) but the second round's 41.79% is the lowest.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019Slovakpresidentialelection#Results
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maro%C5%A1%C5%A0ef%C4%8Dovi%C4%8D
Progressive Slovakia
She's from Progressive Slovakia (ALDE) which is kinda a weird party. Amongst their manifesto were some decent things such as
- Reducing unemployment
- Reducing preventable deaths
But then they had weird and terrible stuff like
- increasing kids school grades
- increasing the number of Roma kids in high school (with the caveat that they are settled so.. ugh)
- Shorten the time to set up a business in Slovakia by 50%.
- Increase public confidence in the Police by 50%
They also have a real weird obsession with having Slovakia rank highly on various indexes such as OECD Quality of Life, the UN World Happiness Index and the Good Country Index (for fuck's sake!)
They stand out in Slovak politics by being pro-EU, pro-NATO and socially progressive and very critical of the current coalition government, namely due to the Slovak National Party being a part of it. They have also capitalized on Slovakians who oppose/are concerned by the policies of V4.
https://sk.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progres%C3%ADvneSlovensko#Ideol%C3%B3gia
The Candidates and the Campaign
Context
The context of the campaign still seems to be a corruption problem of the ruling coalition and the senior party of SMER-SD (SPD) which was kicked off by the murder of journalist Jan Kuciak and his fiancee in 2018. Kuciak was investigating fraud cases that involved politically connected businessmen. The demonstrations were some of the biggest anti-government marches in Slovakia since 1989 and caused former prime minister, SMER leader Robert Fico, to resign.
Also worth pointing out that the incumbant Andrej Kiska, while popular did not run for another term.
Maroš Šefčovič
So like I said earlier he's very much viewed as the establishment, and y'know is. His campaign largely focused on attacking Čaputová on LGBT issues. Šefčovič is really bad on that, he opposes gay marriage, civil partnerships and same-sex adoption and thinks that the second round is an informal referendum on the matter (heh heh god job ya dolt). He praises Slovakia's refusal to ratify the Istanbul Convention, which was a council of Europe convention against violence against women and domestic violence. He called it "gender ideology".
He's also opposed to further EU integration (odd considering his position in the EU comish) he believes that Slovakia is right to refuse refugees in large numbers (or any really) and believes that sanctions on Russia should be lifted and that Russia is not a threat to Slovakia and the EU.
His only good take, he doesn't believe Slovakia should recognise Maduro or Guaido as Venezuelan president.
Zuzana Čaputová
Studied law in Bratislava and worked in local government, then went into children's rights NGO sector. She started her own law firm that works largely in environmental law.
She co-founded the party Progressive Slovakia in Jan 2018 and is vice-char.
Her main points:
- Radical (albeit slightly vague) reform of police, judiciary and prosecution office. More independent as institutions.
- Environmental Conservation
- Pensions and Elder Care (I think this might be her coolest stuff)
- Same-sex partnerships are good, same-sex adoption is okay
- Seems to be in favour of the status quo of abortion (before 12 weeks it's okay, after 12 weeks with counselors and a panel, age restrictions etc)
https://www.euronews.com/2019/03/16/why-slovakia-is-poised-to-elect-a-government-critic-euronews-explains
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maro%C5%A1%C5%A0ef%C4%8Dovi%C4%8D
https://sk.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zuzana%C4%8Caputov%C3%A1#D%C3%B4stojnos%C5%A5pre_seniorov
This week we discuss the Dutch provincial elections which saw a far right euroskeptic party come out on top. No not that one, there's a new one! They're less wacky and more sinister.
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Show Notes Nonsense Section Orban might get away with it Orbán and his Fidesz party got "suspended" from the EPP over being antisemitic and anti-Luxembourgian (https://www.politico.eu/article/orbans-party-suspended-from-european-peoples-party/). People are confused as to why they're suspended and not simply removed... It's not like they had a lot of power in the party as it was so removing their internal voting rights isn't really much of a punishment. Journalists laughed when Orbán said he didn't even run an "anti-Junker poster campaign" since they were merely providing objective information... Old Maccey got in on it by saying the EPP has clan mentality (https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-verdict-epp-decision-viktor-orban/) - I'm assuming he means in the 00s online gaming way -------- https://www.eurotopics.net/en/216937/epp-and-fidesz-why-only-a-suspension
Brexit is an Illusion https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/22/uri-geller-promises-to-stop-brexit-using-telepathy
Macedonia can EU?
North Macedonia EU-membership talks set for June
EU foreign affairs chief Federica Mogherini said Tuesday that the bloc aims to approve membership talks with North Macedonia in June. "Our joint objective is to have a green light in June to start negotiations" she said following a joint meeting in Brussels. Macedonia was granted EU candidate status in 2005 but a name dispute with Greece blocked the launch of membership talks with both the EU and Nato.
https://euobserver.com/tickers/144450
Open Fire Command In a radio interview, General Bruno Leray said the military has been given "strictly fixed" instructions, but could "go as far as to open fire" if lives were under threat, France Info reports.
Several thousand soldiers from Opération Sentinelle, a French military operation deployed following the January 2015 Île-de-France attacks, will be stationed outside numerous official sites during Saturday's demonstrations — the 19th weekend of street protests by the broad anti-government movement.
https://www.politico.eu/article/gilets-jaunes-yellow-jackets-soldiers-may-open-fire-if-lives-at-risk-protests-paris-military-general/
Nordic Debate https://www.norden.org/en/nyhed/leading-nordic-candidates-go-head-head-eu-election-debate
Ahead of this year’s election for the European Parliament, on 8 April in conjunction with the Nordic Council’s Theme Session in Copenhagen, the Nordic Council will bring together candidates from the three Nordic EU Member States to take part in a joint debate for the very first time.
Topic 1 Move over 90s Bond Villan, it's time for modern Bond Villan in Dutch politics Remember when Geert Wilders was the man we all feared would become too powerful in Dutch politics? Also remember when that didn't really happen and Rutte was just PM again... well a fun newer, shinier, less greasy Dutch anti-migrant party has just won the provincial elections ------------------- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019Dutchprovincialelections#Detailedresults https://www.politico.eu/article/mark-rutte-to-lose-senate-majority-after-dutch-local-elections/
Forum for the what now? Democracy apparently (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ForumforDemocracy(Netherlands)). They're fun, eurosceptic and hate "multiculturalism" (I recall this used to be a thing in the UK when we weren't just talking about Brexit all day).
Their leader Thierry Baudet is certainly a less obviously sinister figure compared to Wilders but is pretty extreme, in some ways more so (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ThierryBaudet)
To give an idea of what this guy's deal is:
“We are standing amidst the debris of what was once the greatest and most beautiful civilization the world has ever known,” he said, adding that “we are undermined by our universities, our journalists … and administrators.”
... guy knows how to celebrate a victory
Provincial Elections? The provinces vote on members of the Senate - which based on these results will mean Rutte's government will lose their Senate majority (well the majority of their coalition). It's unlikely to bring down the government but it will be difficult to pass laws - the Senate can reject but not amend. It's supposed to serve as a "how does this relate to Dutch law" body - not a legislative building body.
Things like you know...
- working with the EU
- climate change
- anything not anti-migrant enough
will find a tougher time getting through
Utrecht attack context All the other parties suspended campaigning in the wake of the murders - a pretty standard response so as to not be seen to use it for your political benefit either way.
Thierry Baudet thought it was a good time to blame the government's migration policies (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-netherlands-elections/dutch-government-likely-to-lose-senate-amid-populist-surge-idUSKCN1R10T0)
Caveats The Green Left also made big gains - which is contrary to the message of anti-climate spending from the Cool Guys Democracy Forum. This could end up with Rutte having to work with the Greens to get things through the Senate which will only make their legislation more environment friendly.
It's also not like the VVD got wiped out. They still ended up with 80 provincial seats across the country. So in some ways this is not dissimilar to the general election where the global press flocked in to see Wilders do well - and then be confused as to why he ended up with no power in the legislature. Dutch politics be fragmented. FvD won 86 seats out of 570 across the country - on a turnout of 54%.
Probably one to watch for the EU elections though - they're trying to join the ECR apparently (or whatever replaces it!)
On today's episode, we talk mostly about the various mass protest movements happening in Albania, Serbia and Montenegro as well as smaller things kicking off in Ukraine and Croatia. Also, cheer up Guy!
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Nonsense Section ALDE Drama Macron rules out en Marche being a formal part of ALDE if they keep getting money from shady multinationals (https://www.euronews.com/2019/03/15/macron-s-party-rules-out-joining-eu-centrist-group-after-le-pen-accusations)
ALDE, and they're all powerful leader Guy are concerned (alarmed) by their Estonian party's talks with EKRE https://euobserver.com/tickers/144398?utm_source=euobs&utm_medium=rss
Naftogaz (Ukraine national gas company) is running anti Gazprom ads on politico podcasts Peoples vote march has money for adverts in Westminster tube
Topic 1 It's still kicking off
Montenegro's "Odupri se!" [Resist!]
The Montenegrin protestors are demanding the resignations of President Milo Đukanović, his prime minister Duško Marković, the Supreme State Prosecutor Ivica Stanković, and the Montenegrin chief prosecutor for organized crime, Milivoje Katnić. This is due to allegations of abuse of office, graft and cronyism. Djukanovic, 57, has ruled the tiny Adriatic country for three decades, serving either as prime minister or president. Members of the protest openly call him a dictator
This is the fifth demonstration in 2 months in Podgorica, the first lasted 4 weeks (basically all of February).
Civic activists and journalists, who say they are not affiliated with political parties, marched through the centre of the city chanting "Milo thief" and “We are the state.” Opposition parties are encouraged to stay away from the protests.
The protests started after Dusko Knezevic, a businessman and a former ally of Đukanović, accused the country’s long-serving president and his Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) of abuse of office and murky financial deals. Montenegrin prosecutors accused Knezevic of fraud and money laundering and issued an international arrest for the fugitive banker who fled to Britain. Knezevic has said he will produce more evidence about alleged high-level corruption by Đukanović and his allies. A video clip from 2016 aired in January showed Dusko Knezevic, chairman of the Montenegro-based Atlas Group, appearing to hand the then mayor of Podgorica, Slavoljub Stijepovic, an envelope containing what Knezevic later said was $100,000, to fund a DPS election campaign.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-montenegro-protests/thousands-march-in-montenegro-capital-to-demand-president-resign-idUSKCN1QX0OD
https://www.euronews.com/2019/03/03/podgorica-protestors-thousands-call-on-montenegro-president-ukanovic-to-resign
https://balkaninsight.com/2019/03/16/montenegro-protesters-keep-up-demands-for-djukanovics-resignation/
Serbia's "1 of 5 Million"
The demonstrations in Serbia have lasted for three months, urging more democracy in the Balkan country that is firmly under control of the autocratic rule of President Aleksandar Vucic and his ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS).
The protests started last December after assailants beat up an opposition politician. Opponents have accused Vucic’s government of fostering hate speech and divisions while curbing democratic freedoms.
Demonstrators carried a banner reading "1 of 5 Million" after Vucic previously argued that he would not give in to criticism even if five million people objected.
TV BUILDING
Several thousand people have surrounded Serbia’s state TV building on Saturday 9th of March. The crowd booed and jeered for one hour Saturday outside the TV building in central Belgrade to express their discontent with what they say is the station’s biased reporting. On Saturday 16th of March they burst into state-run TV headquarters in Belgrade on Saturday to denounce a broadcaster whose reporting they consider highly biased.
Riot police arrived at the scene in the Serbian capital and tried to evict hundreds of people, including some opposition leaders. Some protest leaders said they won’t leave until they are given time on the main evening news. Thousands of opposition supporters who gathered in front of the building chanted to the police officers: “shame on you, arrest Vucic!”
Serbian Defense Minister Aleksandar Vulin told the pro-government Pink TV that the protesters are “fascists” who should be severely punished. Vucic has made "defend the country’s law and order" style comments on Sunday.
HUMAN CHAIN
Skirmishes with riot police were reported over the weekend, including officers firing tear gas against the protesters who sought to form a human chain around the presidency to prevent Vucic from leaving the building.
Pink TV showed a photo of Vucic playing chess with the interior minister apparently inside the presidency. Vucic posted a video message on Instagram, saying “I’m here and I won’t move from a place they want to occupy.”
Later, he was seen leaving the building as most of the protesters dispersed from the scene.
“They (protesters) have no power, can do nothing ... as you can see, they have no courage, no courage for anything,” Vucic said as he got into his car. “Nothing will come of it, nothing.” During his televised address, Vucic repeatedly branded opposition leaders as “fascists, hooligans and thieves.”
JusticeForMarija.
It started at the job interview when Marija Lukic’s boss locked the office door and tried to kiss her. He later promised it won’t happen again. But it did, over and over, until she decided it has to stop. Lukic says she has had as many as 15,000 phone messages to prove the harassment. For daring to speak out about her experiences, the 30-year-old mother of two has become a hero for many women in Serbia but also has received threats from both strangers and the accused. She's spoken at the anti-government protests a couple of times now.
https://apnews.com/c48fa832cc1b40d6a7e2988d1d3f4c63
https://apnews.com/90da11e41f654a3fb8c5446033604c42
https://www.euronews.com/2019/03/03/podgorica-protestors-thousands-call-on-montenegro-president-ukanovic-to-resign
https://apnews.com/1db78ef2bdb44226ae46e84def256943
Ukraine Far-Right Protests
CHERKASY
Ukrainian police said 15 officers were injured Saturday 9th of March in a clash with far-right demonstrators who disrupted a campaign appearance of President Petro Poroshenko. The clash took place in the city of Cherkasy, about 150 kilometers (90 miles) southeast of the capital Kiev. Several dozen members of the National Corps (in favour of the Intermarium, more prez powers and the right to bear arms) party tried to rush onto the stage where Poroshenko was speaking and tried to block his motorcade. Police fired tear gas to disperse them.
KIEV
Earlier on the same Saturday, police officers were injured in a clash with far-right demonstrators in Kiev. The violence occurred outside the presidential administration building in Kiev where several hundred demonstrators had gathered to call for arrests of top figures in an alleged military corruption scandal.
A media investigation last week detailed alleged embezzlement schemes in Ukraine’s military industry, including at a factory controlled by Poroshenko.
POLTAVA
Police in the Ukrainian city of Poltava have arrested 10 people as nationalist demonstrators attempted to interrupt a campaign appearance by President Petro Poroshenko. Police said the demonstrators aggressively tried to provoke a conflict with officers at the event Saturday in the city 350 kilometers (210 miles) east of Kiev, the capital.
In the capital, about 3,000 nationalists demonstrated outside the presidential administration building, demanding arrests in an alleged embezzlement scheme in Ukraine’s defense industries that allegedly involves figures close to Poroshenko and a factory controlled by him. Some of the demonstrators threw toy pigs, symbolizing corruption.
https://apnews.com/0a99e724ab3d4fec9f2e9dca18c3d0dc
https://apnews.com/fde58417e5864ef387f708627f6c779b
Croatian YTOMWWGUJ Protests
Several hundred Croatian journalists have rallied in the capital Zagreb against what they say is pressure on journalists and curbing of media freedoms in the European Union country.
The gathering on Saturday dubbed “You took over media, we won’t give up journalism,” was organized by the Croatian Journalists’ Association in protest over more than 1,100 lawsuits filed against journalists in the country.
The issue came into focus after Croatia’s public broadcaster, HRT, filed more than 30 lawsuits against its own and other journalists, including Zovko who complained of censorship.
https://apnews.com/c5572898624c48c39ccde5d5e9b51398
https://www.euronews.com/2019/03/03/podgorica-protestors-thousands-call-on-montenegro-president-ukanovic-to-resign
Albania Protests
Student Protests
The 2018–19 student protests in Albania are a series of street protests, demonstrations and online activism events held by the students of the public universities from December 4th 2018 until February 2019, to oppose the high tuition rates. Students across Albania rallied against the moves that were made by the Albanian government to increase the cost of university education, by introducing new fees for exams. The fee comes on top of the dramatically risen university fees, which have failed to lead to any improvement in public education.
What didn't help these protests go away was the reveal halfway through that found that many in government and senior faculty in universities in Albania had "fake" PhDs and degrees. This included the Deputy Education minister, Ervin Demo, and current minister of Social Health and Protection Ogerta Manastirliu (and many others).
Fees were cut and government backed monthly fee paying schemes were introduced but many facility/quality improvement related demands were not answered.
ANTI-GOV PROTESTS
Albanian opposition supporters clashed with police while trying to storm the parliament building Saturday 17th of March to protest the government, which they accuse of being corrupt and linked to organized crime.
PM Edi Rama called the protest "immature" and says it hampers chances of negotiating membership with the EU.
Protesters, led by Democratic leader Lulzim Basha (who's engaged in Soros conspiracy thinking before), then walked to the parliament building and tried to break through police lines while throwing smoke bombs and other objects. Police dispersed them with tear gas and water cannons. Police said three officers and some demonstrators were injured.
The opposition, whose lawmakers have relinquished their seats in parliament, declines to speak with Rama. They are calling for an early election and a special caretaking cabinet. Edi Rama's Socialist Party has 74 out of 140 seats in parl.
EU and US have asked the opposition not to incite violence and to sit down with Rama.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018%E2%80%9319studentprotestinAlbania
https://apnews.com/43e81cd87a164eaf84055e71229e7a62
On today's episode, the Estonian election and Macron's cool guy big message for Europe. Ciarán is not sold. Hugh thinks the Estonian electoral system is interesting for some reason.
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Nonsense Section Maybe resignation will increase my poll numbers What happens when the center right joins forces with the cool nationalists? Finland has a example that maybe the likes of Spain should look to... Finland's government resigned on Friday (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/08/world/europe/finland-government-resigns.html), over what PM Juha Sipila says is a failure to overhaul the social and health care in the country. This strikes me as an odd move since they have a scheduled election in April anyway (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Finnish_parliamentary_election) The government’s resignation would not change the timetable for next month’s elections, the justice ministry said. (https://apnews.com/f373443cc74a4d17a3ee834a1134a5b7) Then I saw how Sipila's party is polling, a cool 14% down from their 21% in the last election. The confusing Finns Party (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finns_Party) was in the original collation before they split due to the a more extreme candidate winning their leadership. The defectors formed "Blue reform" and have half their parliamentary seats... but are now polling at ~1%. Apparently Finnish nationalists don't like the more moderate government friendly version of themselves. ### Possibly heading for a deadlock SDP could win the election but the right to center right having most of the seats. With a big chunk again going to the Finns which apparently are now too extreme for the other center right parties to work with?
Sipila is also out as party leader
"Juha Sipila, now heading a caretaker government in the Nordic country, told Finnish public broadcaster YLE that polls showing 14-percent support for the ruling Center Party meant “that I won’t for sure be running as a (chairman) candidate with that kind of support” at the 2020 party congress."
https://apnews.com/6d89c385995248439bd6f5a0b5d3e89d
The reforms in question look shiiiite
The plan, which has been worked on by previous governments since 2006, is meant to tackle an aging population, improve efficiency and reduce public spending by 3 billion euros ($3.4 billions) by 2029. It pledged to offer Finnish municipalities and regions larger freedom to choose between public and private service providers for citizens’ social and health care.
https://apnews.com/6d89c385995248439bd6f5a0b5d3e89d
Everyone excited for Tuesday? It's Brexit fun time again! There will be another vote on the deal with the EU for leaving, which is mostly expected to fail... but the government whips are saying it will be "tight" (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-05/u-k-in-last-ditch-talks-to-fix-divorce-deal-brexit-update). So who knows anymore
Topic 1 Estonia Parliamentary Elections What's the deal with weird family run parties? People are shook by the growth of the Mart Helme nationalist vanity party, or EKRE as they like to me known (https://www.dw.com/en/far-right-stoking-fears-in-estonias-parliamentary-election/a-47767421).
Former ambassador to Russia leading an anti-West nationalist party might ring alarm bells in Trump-Russia conspiracy land but they're against a possible border treaty with Russia because it moves their border further West in some places (https://news.postimees.ee/1240490/estonia-s-conservative-people-s-party-criticizes-border-treaty-with-russia)
They're more of a European style direct democracy and less centralization wanting National Front style thing.
Just some chill Estonians that like having torchlight processions of their youth wing.
Mart's son is also a super chill guy (https://news.err.ee/107416/conservative-politician-if-you-re-black-go-back)
Estonian election officials are the best They have a really great website (https://www.valimised.ee/en) with result breakdowns in 3 languages
Internet voting Looking at a results map makes it look like the EKRE did real well in terms of land mass... but mostly in rural areas. In the 3 Talin constituencies they were 10-11% against their performance of 17% nationally. Interestingly they did poorly with internet voting - generally under performing there. Now that's either indicative of their voter base or some sort of conspiracy.
43% of people voted online.
They have a pretty reasonable explanation of their system and have a way of checking the server knows who you voted for with a smart phone. You can also cancel your online vote and go cast a paper one at any time... They also seem to have thought through the security reasonably well from a cryptographic point of view.. but I wouldn't trust my own government to implement something so competent
Simple Breakdown
- Around 1 million eligible voters
- Ten political parties and 15 independents — totaling 1,099 candidates — are up for election.
- There are 101 seats up for grabs (51 for Majority)
-Juri Ritas, former PM, led a 3 party coalition of Centre (ALDE), Reform Party (ALDE) and the Social Democrats (S&D) * Main Issues are Taxation, Healthcare, Braindrain and the non-EU labour quota (that last one is fascinating).
Seats:
- Reform ALDE 34 (up 4)
- Centre ALDE 26 (down 1)
- EKRE No EU party yet 19 (up 12)
- Pro Patria EPP 12 (down 2)
- Social Democratic S&D 10 (down 5)
Current Sitch:
Reform already attempted a two-party coalition with Centre. Centre said the party was too ultimatum-ish in their demands and that they disagreed on tax issues, they rejected the offer. Reform is now in talks with Pro Patria and Social Democratic party.
https://apnews.com/edcca10fdb0f4433bc8ea7a01ab3286b
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019Estonianparliamentary_election
Chill comments from EKRE
Some of the party members have proposed a Europe-wide decriminalization of Holocaust denial and to "enter a correct teaching of the history of the Third Reich"
https://www.timesofisrael.com/estonian-politician-vows-to-legalize-holocaust-denial/
Topic 2 Manu's big letter Published in every EU country - here's the Guardian version (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/04/europe-brexit-uk), though I suppose the official government site is also fine (https://www.elysee.fr/emmanuel-macron/2019/03/04/for-european-renewal.en). Or if you're not bothered with Macron's prose Politico had a summary article (https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-europe-renaissance-vs-reality/), so did DW (https://www.dw.com/en/macron-issues-plea-for-europe-ahead-of-eu-elections/a-47769832) I don't think his economic policies will create as much art as the actual European renaissance. They have a fun website (https://eu-renaissance.org/en#) with a cheesy uplifting video. Did someone say pan European movement? If you thought Ciarán hated Volt...
There are a lot of hot takes (https://www.eurotopics.net/en/215922/will-macron-s-ideas-help-save-europe) mostly cynical about the apparent lack of specifics, but I (Hugh) kind of disagree with that general take... also that it's "fanning" any "populist" flames.
Smaller countries hate Macron EU wide protectionism ... because it's just there to protect French large companies who have a great time in the EU single market but don't want large multi-nationals to come in (i.e. spooky China). For smaller countries who don't have any giant corporations this protection seems like a bad thing because it stops the EU blocking things like mergers allowing the French companies to grow even bigger (https://www.politico.eu/article/macrons-battle-against-european-unity/)
AKK poo poos Manu EU Plan Responding to Macron, Merkel protege warns against centralized EU https://reut.rs/2HoH1g3
Wauquiez, the leader of France's 3rd most popular party, Les lets take money from Gadaffi and defraud the public coffers party I believe is their rebranding, also thinks it's shit (https://www.politico.eu/article/laurent-wauquiez-hits-out-against-macron-letter-to-europe/). "We must exclude new enlargement", and some shit about migration being bad...
Some other Germans think it's cool - like the SPD and FDP (https://www.dw.com/en/german-politicians-welcome-emmanuel-macrons-eu-initiative/a-47775398)
Other than her 'teach Imams how to do Islam right' and migration == bad attitude she makes some okay points I guess... (https://www.dw.com/en/angela-merkel-successor-akk-responds-to-emmanuel-macrons-vision-for-europe/a-47840072)
- a permanent seat for the EU on the UN Security Council (sure)
- the European Parliament should focus its work in Brussels, rather than alternating with Strasbourg (small potatoes but sure)
- EU officials should no longer be exempt from national income tax. (they're what now??)
On today's episode, we talk mostly about the EPP slowly admitting they realise Orbán's a bit shit. We also talk about a weird La Lega funding scandal, that seems very legit if you ask me.
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Nonsense Section AfD wins case against spy agency "The Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution", the not at all sinister sounding German domestic spy agency, apparently aren't allowed to announce they're looking into the AfD (https://www.dw.com/en/afd-wins-case-against-spy-agency/a-47695697)
France is planning a 5% "digital tax" The French finance minister is apparently planning a 5% tax to promote 'fiscal justice'. This is largely due to the EU not pushing forward with something similar (https://www.bloomberg.com/technology). The problem being that some EU countries (cough, Ireland and Luxembourg) do quite well out of the current system
The second referendum campaign is just kind of embarrassing God damn you fucking nerds!
https://www.wooferendum.org/
Moldovan parliamentary election https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Moldovan_parliamentary_election,_2018
The general takeaway of this election, The Party of Socialists is still the biggest party but there still needs to be a government formed. The newly implemented voting system is terrible.
Topic 1 €3M from Russia to La Lega
Report: Russia offered Italy's Salvini €3m for EU election
Russia was preparing to help Italian far-right deputy prime minister Matteo Salvini contest the European Parliament elections in May with a clandestine €3m funding boost for his League party, Italian weekly L'Espresso reports. The money was to come via a cushy oil deal brokered by a Russian state firm and Salvini's aide, Gianluca Savoini, in Moscow last October, L'Espresso said in a teaser ahead of further revelations due Sunday.
https://euobserver.com/tickers/144246
Main article in L'Espresso
http://espresso.repubblica.it/plus/articoli/2019/02/28/news/la-trattativa-per-finanziare-la-lega-i-nuovi-particolari-sull-uomo-di-salvini-a-mosca-1.332173?ref=HEF_RULLO&preview=true
People involved: Gianluca Savoini, president of the Lombardy-Russia Cultural Association, and Claudio d'Amico, a senior foreign policy adviser to the party. They own Orion LLC. a Moscow-based company.
At the weekend, the Italian magazine L'Espresso published a series of cases where senior figures in and around Lega were linked to businesses based in Russia, and, more significantly, allegations that the party was in talks to secure funding through an oil deal brokered by Savoini.
The League has never hidden its desire to forge close economic and ideological links with Russia.
League representatives have frequently travelled to Russia and appeared regularly on state-controlled media there.
In 2017, a formal "cooperation and collaboration" agreement was signed between Russian president Vladimir Putin's ruling United Russia and the League, aimed at boosting business, legislative and cultural ties between the two countries.
https://euobserver.com/opinion/144255
Topic 2 People are starting to notice Orbán isn't a Christian Democrat Orbán has gotten used to getting his way nationally - having fun spending the tax payers' money on "information campaigns". In a repeat of last year for the Hungarian elections they're doing it again but this time against the current EU administration, which is run in a grand coalition with Orbán's own EPP party... The anti-Junker ads are a curious decision. Everyone should refer to the 2018 "stop Soros" ads which apparently cost the government €8m (https://english.atlatszo.hu/2018/03/22/hungarian-government-spent-e8-1-million-on-its-latest-stop-soros-campaign/) in the run up to their national elections. This is also generally money spent for air time and billboards controlled by Orbán friendly media (Politico have a fun chart https://www.politico.eu/article/viktor-orban-media-empire-hungary-election-antal-rogan-fidesz-propaganda/). The content is equivalent to low effort memes (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/27/world/europe/viktor-orban-hungary.html) Currently they're running basically the same idea but with Junker included as a Soros co-conspirator in his anti Hungarian people immigration agenda.
EPP notice... /s In a shocking turn of events the EPP notice /s.
We're now on 5-8 parties officially having said they've asked for Fidesz expulsion or suspension:
- Flemish Christian Democrats (Belgium)
- Walloon Humanist Democratic Center (Belgium)
- Luxembourg's Christian Social People's Party (Junker's party, Luxembourg)
- CDS-People's Party (Portugal)
(https://www.politico.eu/article/belgian-and-luxembourgish-conservatives-ask-epp-to-expel-fidesz/) * Swedish Moderate Party late last month also indicated they'd be on board (https://www.politico.eu/article/sweden-moderate-party-viktor-orban-fidesz-party-to-be-kicked-out-of-epp/) * Swedish Christian Democrats * National Coalition Party (Finland)
Current count is at 10ish according to Politico (https://www.politico.eu/article/fidesz-epp-european-peoples-party-viktor-orban-what-happens-next/), but mostly parties with small seat numbers.
Christian Democratic Appeal from the Netherlands have said there needs to be a conversation but it's unclear whether they're asking for expulsion.
They need 7 parties to ask for expulsion for it to come to an EPP internal vote - "A proposal for the exclusion of a member may only be submitted by the Presidency or seven Ordinary or Associated Member Parties from five different countries." (https://www.epp.eu/files/uploads/2019/01/EPP-Statutes-adopted-by-the-Helsinki-Congress-on-7-Nov-2018.pdf). So this may happen, but whether they get a majority to vote them out is questionable.
The EPP internal structure is controlled based on previous EU election results so... yeah maybe https://www.epp.eu/structure/political-assembly/.
There's some powerhouses on the list of people who would probably vote against expulsion. Tajani (EU parliament president, Forza Italia) has been pretty pro Orbán previously and their block would probably vote against. PP from Spain are pretty gross lately. Les Republicans have been conspicuously quiet on it... So maybe not
Orbán seems to think this is good fun Originally the news late in the week was they'd take the posters down on March 15th (as originally planned). Now they've revealed they're just going to replace them with Vice President Frans Timmermans posters ( https://www.dw.com/en/hungary-to-replace-anti-juncker-posters-with-anti-timmermans-posters/a-47753965). Now Timmermans isn't in the EPP, but he's part of the grand coalition ruling majority being in the S&D... so... I don't know, maybe some people will find that fine in the EPP...
Merkel says posters bad, Orbán very bold (https://www.dw.com/en/merkel-voices-solidarity-with-juncker-stops-short-of-calling-for-orbans-fidesz-to-be-thrown-out-of-epp/a-47619513)
The Hungarian government's website says that the response from the commission to the ads is a "confession" (http://www.kormany.hu/en/government-spokesperson/news/the-official-opinion-of-the-european-commission-is-yet-another-confession). Also who knew the Hungarian government had an English version?
They're making the Left is evil argument Orbán is basically saying that criticism of him is just going to help the left wing (https://www.politico.eu/article/viktor-orban-calls-epp-critics-useful-idiots/), which is a curious message from someone who is running ads saying the effective leader of his EU party is a puppet of Soros...
Maybe the EPP could just do with out him? They'd be giving up the juicy 13 seats of their coalition. They'd still be the largest party by a sizeable majority on current polling... I don't think Orbán's bullshit is worth it. Thought the current narrative is they're going to take a massive hit in seats from the last parliament so maybe not... (https://www.politico.eu/article/new-politico-2019-european-parliament-election-seat-projection/)
This week we discuss the crumbling nightmare of the 5 Star party's online direct democracy "platform" and the fun that is #antisemitism, which is very serious, but may not be being brought up in good faith.
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Show Notes Nonsense Section Bear Grylls vs Bulgaria In the episode of Running Wild filmed in Bulgaria’s Rila mountains in 2017, Grylls and US Latin and ballroom dancer Derek Hough were shown killing, gutting and cooking the frog before swimming across a lake.
“It is evident from the film material that during the shooting there were breaches to the regulations and rules of conduct in protected areas: entering and swimming in the water basin of the Karakashevo lake, lighting a fire, and catching and killing an animal,” the environment ministry said in a statement.
The series’ production company faces a possible fine of between €500 and €5,000 while Grylls and Hough could receive fines of between €250 and €2,500.
https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2019/feb/21/bear-grylls-bulgaria-fine-killing-boiling-frog
No one who has a Pension could be an evil man Nearly 75 years after the second world war, Germany is still paying monthly pensions to collaborators of the wartime Nazi regime in several European countries including Belgium and Britain, according to Belgian MPs and media reports.
Belgian Parl. wants them to stop and release a list of all who've been receiving the pensions. Germany won't release a list of any sort (Germany be like that)
The present German ambassador to Belgium, Martin Kotthaus, told a Flemish-language news site last year that an investigation was under way to establish what exact role the remaining recipients of the pensions had played during the war.
German privacy laws would not permit a case-by-case study of the pension recipients, while the German social security system was not subject to eventual criminal law proceedings, Göllnitz said (German Historian with University of Mainz).
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/21/germany-still-paying-pensions-to-wartime-nazi-collaborators
What are Yugoslavia “A really remarkable transformation from a Soviet vassal state to a modern European democracy, a member of the EU, a member of Nato, a country with a flourishing economy, growing its tourism year in, year out, and this is really an example of Europe at its best.”
Jeremy Hunt fumbles diplomatic speech but lives to condemn German Saudi arms sales ban. What a hero.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/23/soviet-vassal-state-jeremy-hunt-makes-gaffe-in-slovenia
Brexit could be delayed until 2021, EU sources reveal Brexit could be delayed until 2021 under plans being explored by the EU’s most senior officials, at a time of growing exasperation over Theresa May’s handling of the talks, the Guardian can reveal.
A lengthy extension of the negotiating period is said by EU sources to be favoured by Donald Tusk, the European council president, should the Commons continue to reject May’s deal.
Replacing the 21-month transition period with extra time as a member state would allow the UK and the EU to develop their plans for the future relationship with the aim of making the contentious Irish backstop redundant.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/24/brexit-could-be-delayed-until-2021-eu-sources-reveal
Topic 1 Rousseau has unenlightened tech support The title is a good joke in the same way Rousseau is a reliable method of direct democracy. Yes this is Rousseau, the "operating system of the 5 Star Movement" (is anyone else really tired of people saying they're a movement and not a party prior to becoming a party?). A recent story in Politico Europe (https://www.politico.eu/article/italy-5stars-digital-democracy-struggle) points to the most recent in a long string of issues with the system where several members complained they couldn't vote on whether the 5* senators should vote to remove Salvini's immunity from prosecution. As an aside immunity from prosecution has always seemed like a rocky idea for elected officials anyway...
Rousseau? Having a way for party members to directly influence the party decisions does seem like a reasonable idea and their website doesn't indicate this is a complete piece of shit (https://rousseau.movimento5stelle.it/index.php). It also seems like a relatively transparent way of doing candidate selection. Seems simple enough - you register, provide documents saying who you are and have to be a member for 6 months before you can vote.
However, talk to anyone who knows a little about internet security and they will tell you this is an awful idea if you're going to use it for decision making (This Tom Scott youtube video from a few years back explains the main reason well https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w30x6oaDmI)
It's currently being run by Davide Casaleggio completely, son of Gianroberto Casaleggio co-founder of the 5.
This has happened before In 2017 before the last Italian elections (where the 5 did very well) there were reports of the system being compromised (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-politics-5star/hacking-attacks-a-pre-election-setback-for-italys-5-star-movement-idUSKBN1CA1TM)
“Rousseau’s content systems are outdated and its level of security is totally inadequate,” said David Puente, a computer expert and web developer who worked for Casaleggio Associati for four-and-a-half years until 2011.
Puente, quoted in the article, said they would need to roll back current functions to make them secure
Why Verify, We Trust Them Right? There's an entertaining NYT piece (who also have no reason to exaggerate) (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/28/world/europe/italy-election-davide-casaleggio-five-star.html) where they call Davide Casaleggio a "Wizard of Oz-like figure".
Their transparency page is just a list of people (https://rousseau.movimento5stelle.it/trasparenza.php) and doesn't really answer any questions about how they're convincing people of the validity of any voting or party list selection.
The "Rousseau association" seems to exist to make it seem like an independently run operation - not just one guy with political goals.
There's a series of screenshots from this twitter user https://twitter.com/r0gue0 with screenshots showing them logged in as different users on Beppe's blog (which is run by the same people). They've also previously posted donor lists which they would only be able to get by accessing the database (https://weirditaly.com/2018/09/06/rousseau-platform-data-breach/).
The Italian data protection service resulted in €32,000 in fines to the 5* for giving the data to 3rd parties.
Topic 2
AntiSemitism
Why this came up this week?
Well Orban's Fidesz government was doing another one of their wacky government poster campaigns that features George Soros quite a bit BUT THIS TIME Juncker is a part of it. Juncker and Orban both belong to the same European Grouping (The EPP) and now Juncker has joined calls for Fidesz to leave the EPP.
https://euobserver.com/political/144212
https://euobserver.com/tickers/144202
Labour Split Fun The Labour has an antisemitism problem ongoing story came to a head when ~8 MPs (can't be sure that number won't have changed by the time this goes out) left the party to form a centrist, anti-brexit group/movement/no more please stop. One of their main talking points at the press conference essentially was "Jeremy hasn't done anything to address our antisemitism concerns", up front ahead of remembering that they also happen to disagree with him on almost all of his policy positions (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/feb/18/several-labour-mps-set-to-quit-the-party-politics-live?page=with%3Ablock-5c6a8503e4b0bdb6048fde58).
Saying there is a culture of antisemitism in the Labour party is partially a clever way of avoiding talking about why they disagree with policy (https://editor.currentaffairs.org/2019/02/how-to-think-clearly-about-anti-semitism-controversies-in-the-labour-party/). Focusing on that allows former Blair government supporters to paint over the unpopularity of their plans a bit
France has an antisemitism problem and happens to be having a mass movement
80 Graves were vandalized in Alsace with swastikas on Feb 21st this year. Macron has pledged to tackle antisemitism in France. Antisemitism has risen by 70% in the last year in France. The record high is still 2015 though and while year on year decreases have taken place since then (2016/2017) these were still worrying high numbers that caused many Jewish people in France to leave for Israel.
https://www.politico.eu/article/macron-vows-measures-to-tackle-online-hate-speech-and-anti-semitism/
https://www.politico.eu/article/sharp-rise-in-anti-semitic-acts-in-france-says-pm-philippe/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antisemitismin21st-centuryFrance#2015to_present
Yellow Vests are anti semitic now I guess
Due to abuse hurled at Philosopher Alain Finkielkraut by yellow vest protesters recently the criticism of the movement as Anti semitic has taken hold.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-47268651
Weber accidentally joins call to end Antisemitism in the EPP
This has drawn attention to uncomfortable elements of the EPP like FPÖ and Orban.
https://www.politico.eu/article/manfred-weber-calls-for-anti-semitism-pact/
This week we discuss Spain's love of standing on rakes, politically speaking. The first snap election of the year has been called and boy howdy is it terrible. Also, do we have some nonsense for you?
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Nonsense Section Zombie Copyright Directive Returns So the "EU copyright directive" is going to a final parliament vote - https://www.theverge.com/2019/2/13/18223815/eu-copyright-directive-article-11-13-trilogues-finished-final-vote-parliament
As usual Julia Reda sums up the current state more succinctly than I could - thehttps://juliareda.eu/2019/02/eu-copyright-final-text/
According to Bernd Riegert at DW these aren't so bad (https://www.dw.com/en/opinion-eu-online-copyright-reform-wont-break-the-internet/a-47524988)
"In Russia, China, Iran and the United Arab Emirates, to name just a few countries, many forms of content are blocked by the state, and users are also partially monitored online. Compared to this, the EU's attempts to protect copyrighted material seem rather modest."
Yeah...
This opinion seems to stem from a misunderstanding of how the current system doesn't work. Content ID from YouTube already incorrectly flags up non copyrightable material as infringement. Don't get me started on the female nipple bans. Upload filters are not moving the responsibility from the "users" to the platforms. It's making sure the platforms are more restrictive places for their users for the vampire like copyright controlling industries.
Coming soon, French Ambassador to Italy Apparently a week and a bit is enough to teach those pesky Italians a lesson (https://www.politico.eu/article/french-ambassador-to-italy-to-return-very-soon/)
French foreign minister: "the return of our ambassador will be done very soon."
Orban's thoughts on fucking Hungary’s populist prime minister, Viktor Orbán, has promised that women who have four or more children will never pay income tax again, in a move aimed at boosting the country’s population.
“In all of Europe there are fewer and fewer children, and the answer of the west to this is migration,” said Orbán in his annual state of the nation address on Sunday. “They want as many migrants to enter as there are missing kids, so that the numbers will add up. We Hungarians have a different way of thinking. Instead of just numbers, we want Hungarian children. Migration for us is surrender.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/10/viktor-orban-no-tax-for-hungarian-women-with-four-or-more-children
Ukraine Deports Russia-Aligned Priest, Strips Citizenship, In Church Rift Ukraine has taken the extraordinary step of deporting a senior cleric of the Moscow-aligned Orthodox Church and stripping him of his citizenship, marking a political escalation in the historic rift that has shaken the Eastern Orthodox world and further raised tensions between Kyiv and Moscow.
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-deports-russia-aligned-priest-strips-citizenship-in-church-rift/29770079.html
Be warned of RFE though, it keeps talking about how it's a Russian plot, which is just repeating Poroshenkos campaign points without criticism.
God thinks you should join the Euro Priests are to be assigned to help inform Romanian citizens about entering the eurozone, according to a National Plan to Adopt the Euro Currency prepared by the government in Bucharest in the autumn and last week released to the public. This religious-political communication strategy will begin some 12 months prior to the official joining of the single currency date set by the Romanian government for 2024. https://euobserver.com/economic/144113
Previously, the Agriculture Ministry turned to the Romanian Orthodox Church, which is highly trusted in villages, on two other occasions, namely to convince farmers to join producer associations and cooperatives, and to access EU funds.
The plan for euro adoption includes a campaign to inform the general public about the currency change. The campaign is to kick off about one year before the official target for the euro adoption, namely 2024.
Last week, the Government announced 2024 as a firm euro adoption deadline.
https://www.romania-insider.com/priests-euro-adoption/
EFDD is gone! Long live this new group "of like-minded people” https://www.politico.eu/article/italys-5stars-launch-new-group-in-european-parliament/
Topic 1 Why govern when you could have another election? So Spain is having an election again! On Wednesday Sanchez held an emergency after his budget was rejected by both the right wing parties and the Catalonian separatists (https://www.dw.com/en/spanish-pm-calls-emergency-meeting-after-budget-rejected/a-47488641)
No way to keep everyone happy The convergence of protests against Sanchez's soft approach on the separatist movements (see last week's pod) and the separatists being angry that Sanchez wasn't giving them formal talks to hold votes meaning his softish approach really hasn't worked - despite it probably being the smart move (https://www.politico.eu/article/pedro-sanchez-4-takeaways-on-spains-snap-election)
Spain's prime minister Pedro Sanchez on Friday called a snap election for 28 April. Sanchez's announcement came after his minority government suffered a defeat in parliament on its 2019 budget plan, with Catalan pro-independence MPs and centre-right opposition rejecting the proposal. The Socialist PM has been in power since June 2018. It will be the third time Spaniards are asked to elect a new parliament since December 2015.
https://euobserver.com/tickers/144179
The polls as they currently stand https://pollofpolls.eu/ES
Is this a good idea? No... it's looking like Vox (the super fun party) could be get 11% of the vote according to El País (https://elpais.com/politica/2019/02/15/actualidad/1550218137053483.html). This could make them king makers and bring a PP+Ciudadanos coalition into power (just)
Another 2015 and 2016 The 2015 election was the most fractured parliament since the 70s and they had to do it again. The 2016 result was pretty similar but due to internal squabbling with the PSOE (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016PSOE_crisis#Timeline) Sanchez was temporally not in charge and effectively Rajoy was able to form a minority government.
This time could be similar but Vox will probably get some serious seats and Podemos is somewhat crumbling
Let's not forget the trial The trial for the 12 people (mostly former Catalan government elected officials) is on as of this week. Their approach has partially been to pretend the prosecutors aren't there and argue it's a political trial (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/14/former-catalan-vice-president-oriol-junqueras-tells-trial-he-is-political-prisoner). Which I mean, Germany not extraditing their leader on the grounds that "rebellion" isn't a crime lends some support to that. This is expected to go on for several months - meaning it will cover the whole election campaign
This week we discuss the fun that is Polish politics and the center-far right duopoly that exists. We also have some fun times getting into divides in the Orthodox church. Not to mention Macron overreacting to people being mean about him.
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Show Notes Nonsense Section Romania moves to block own candidate from EU prosecutor role Romania moves to block own candidate from EU prosecutor role https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/05/romania-moves-to-block-own-candidate-from-eu-prosecutor-role
There are now three Gilets jaunes lists That 13% polling was speculative when there was one list. Divided between three lists is probably going to favour Macron by diluting the support (https://www.euractiv.com/section/eu-elections-2019/news/increasing-number-of-yellow-vest-lists-for-european-elections/)
France pulls its ambassador to Italy Apparently when you say things like "never stopped colonising" and go meet with the president's new political enemies he gets all mad ( https://www.dw.com/en/france-recalls-ambassador-to-italy-after-di-maio-meets-yellow-vest-protesters/a-47407164)
Protests in Spain for not that corruption scandal Tens of thousands gathered in Madrid on Sunday to protest Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's plan to ease tensions with Catalan separatists, in a demonstration uniting the leaders of conservative and far-right parties.
The protest of an estimated 45,000 people marked the first time that the leaders of the conservative Popular Party (PP), centrist Ciudadanos and far-right Vox were photographed together, El País reported.
Protesters accused Sánchez of "stabbing [Spain] in the back" and called for a snap election because of his government's decision to accept a long-held demand of Catalan secessionists to appoint a facilitator in talks between pro-independence and pro-unity political parties.
https://www.politico.eu/article/spains-right-wing-parties-protest-government-talks-with-catalan-nationalists-pedro-sanchez/
Ciarán Spent too much time reading about the Orthodox Church Ukraine is getting it's own Church but it's mostly political bullshit that's horrifyingly Byzantine for 2019.
http://neweasterneurope.eu/2018/04/26/house-divided-orthodoxy-post-maidan-ukraine/
Topic 1 Poland... The murder of the Mayor of Gdansk Pawel Adamowicz and the formation of Wiosna (Spring) draw eyes to what the hell is going on in Polish politics.
Wiosna In the UK the Daily Telegraph lead with the headline "Gay atheist politician launches movement to take on Poland's conservatives"... So you can imagine what the Polish establishment and it's old establishment think of them.
Robert Biedron the mayor of Slupsk founded a new party (with mixed SEO https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spring(politicalparty)) wish for Poland extremely center left views. Women's rights. Pro EU sentiment. Minimum wage increases.
Delightful, but sitting somewhere in the low double digits - high single digits, might sort of unify what exists of the Polish left, but not pose a major threat. Possibly even divide up the anti PiS vote (https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/02/08/the-future-of-politics-is-coming-to-poland/)
Everyone's talking about Tusk Donald gets a lot of air time with his "special place in hell" brexit nonsense and what not, but he's also possibly coming back to Poland (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-08/eu-s-tusk-plans-polish-comeback-for-2019-elections-paper-says). Those are only rumors but it seems risky based on the current polls, which have PiS in a relatively similar position to what they got last time (~37%)
A Right Wing Duopoly The PiS get all the press but the main opposition party Civic Platform is really a conservative/christian democratic party (of which Tusk is a member). Between them they have 361 out of 460 seats in their parliament. The 3rd largest grouping is Kukiz'15 which only has 26 seats and is a far right "movement"...
There is no established party to the left of Civic Platform with any real political control.
Youth to the Right Research and political commentary has generally been showing that young Poles are pretty amenable to right wing policies anyway (https://www.dw.com/en/polands-young-voters-turning-to-the-right/a-47439606)
Marta Majchrzak, who co-authored a study published in November by the commercial research institute IQS in which scientists interviewed childless Poles between the ages of 16 and 29. "They trust authorities, are dreaming of marriage, and are proud to be Polish citizens,"
Free market capitalism and libertarian views are more popular with the youth (http://politicalcritique.org/cee/poland/2018/why-the-polish-left-is-losing/) especially in the ages where we in the west have a stereotype of those being left wing years (i.e. those damn college communists).
So maybe Tusk's guys are the less of two evils. Remember the PiS is steamrolling the courts in probably non-constitutional ways (https://dziennikpolski24.pl/dziekani-prawa-krytykuja-reforme-sadownictwa-wedlug-pis-wyrazamy-dezaprobate-dla-dzialan-wladz-panstwowych/ar/13505207)... and reducing abortion rights.
Even Adamowicz wasn't exactly left wing or that liberal. He would be relatively to the right in most European countries (http://politicalcritique.org/cee/poland/2019/pawel-adamowicz-a-very-political-death-in-a-country-torn-by-culture-wars/)
Class Struggle Isn't the Debate Poland, being previously part of the Soviet Union doesn't have the class imbalance issues in the same way as say the UK or US (http://politicalcritique.org/cee/poland/2018/why-the-polish-left-is-losing/). There isn't an entrenched aristocracy or an economy to the scale where arguing about how to cut the pie is the argument people in Poland are on board with. People want economic growth and parties like Razem talking about wealth inequality doesn't gain much traction.
Most of the wealthy in Poland aren't actually in Poland to get taxed, they're foreign investors. Discussions of raising taxes are largely a no go
Previously in Europe Hugh. On today's episode, Ciarán is on his lonesome talking about some interesting stories from the week.
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Headlines for the Solo Episode
ITALIAN RECESSION
Italy's economy shrunk for the second time in a row in the last quarter of 2018, indicating that the country was sliding into a recession.
This is the 4th recession in Italy since 2008
Internal and external press are blaming the Nightmare Coalition Gov but the coalition is blaming the previous admin
Deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio said the data "certified the failure of the entire political class which Italians sent packing" last year, Reuters quoted him as having said.
https://www.politico.eu/article/italy-enters-recession-as-eurozone-growth-flatlines/
https://www.eurotopics.net/en/214104/why-is-italy-sliding-into-recession
YELLOW VEST REFERENDUM
Oh god no.
French leader Emmanuel Macron is considering holding a referendum on social and economic reforms in order to quell the 'yellow vest' protests, French weekly Journal du Dimanche has said, citing government sources. If it happened, it would be the first of its kind in France and would coincide with the European Parliament elections. "The chances of a May 26 referendum happening are very high", a government source said.
The French press is unanimous that this is a bad idea, citing Brexit, Renzi's constitutional referendum and Tspiras' bailout referendum.
The Elysée Palace has not confirmed the vote, but Macron said last week that a referendum was one of the possibilities “on the table” and this was a fitting way to end his grand debate.
Le Journal du Dimanche reported voters might be asked if they want to reduce the number of national legislators and potentially impose term limits as part of an effort to overhaul the French political system. (but y'know, nothing about reinstating the wealth tax)
To happen on the 26th of May this needs to be confirmed before the end of this week.
https://euobserver.com/tickers/144078
https://www.eurotopics.net/en/214189/macron-toying-with-idea-of-referendum
https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-referendum-yellow-jacket-protests/
NEW POLISH LIB PARTY
Polish politician Robert Biedron launched a new party on Sunday called Spring. He promised to phase out coal power by 2035, end state subsidies for the church and to legalise abortion and same-sex marriage. He also promised to boost welfare and healthcare spending in a programme dubbed "populist" by his opponents. "I will be prime minister," Biedron told supporters at a rally in Warsaw ahead of elections in the autumn.
Biedron is a former Democratic Left Alliance (polling ~5%) and former mayor of Słupsk (pronounced swoopsk), LGBT activist and serves on the board of NGO Campaign Against Homophobia. He's openly gay and an atheist. Warning sign: he's been compared to Macron.
Early polls are showing his party at around 9%
https://euobserver.com/tickers/144075
https://www.politico.eu/article/polands-progressive-hope-robert-biedron-mayor-civic-platform/
MACEDONIA TO JOIN NATO
North Macedonia will on Wednesday begin the process to join NATO, the secretary general of the military alliance announced Saturday.
https://www.politico.eu/article/north-macedonia-nato-greece-to-sign-nato-pact-this-week/
FACEBOOK IS PUSHING IT
German Justice Minister Katarina Barley (S&D) has slammed tech giant Facebook — again — warning the company may be attempting to create a messaging monopoly.
Referring to FB's plan to integrate Facebook, Instagram, Whatsapp and Messenger.
Nick Clegg, Facebook’s global head of public affairs, (what a fucking world) confirmed Monday that the company was looking at how to make its messaging services interoperable under one data architecture. Zuckerberg confirmed reports that the company was considering merging its messenger services
German language media as ringing alarm bells of privacy and date centralization, and the German government is shoring up EU allies to take on Facebook.
https://www.politico.eu/blogs/eu-decides-2019-european-elections-blog/2019/02/german-minister-katarina-barley-and-mep-candidate-goes-after-facebook/
https://www.eurotopics.net/en/214023/whatsapp-instagram-and-facebook-to-merge
GIBRALTAR IS A COLONY, FIGHT ME!
In an EU draft regulation on visas for Brits post-Brexit it is stated that “Gibraltar is a colony of the British Crown”
The UK is responsible for 10 of the 17 entries to the UN List of Non-self Governing Territories
https://www.politico.eu/article/spain-uk-brexit-gibraltar-colony-eu-line-boosts-spain/
MAN WILL NOT COMPROMISE BECAUSE HE LOVES COMPROMISE SO MUCH
PM of Finland, Juha Sipilä told Politico that The European Council cannot and will not be required to follow the EU's Spitzenkandidat — or lead candidate — process in choosing the next European Commission president
“I don’t like this idea about Spitzenkandidats. I think that in democracy we have to make compromises also"
Largely he is opposed to the EPP dominance of the parliament and thus the process. He's from ALDE which intends to put forth a short list of potential EuroCom Prezs for the council to choose from.
https://www.politico.eu/article/juha-sipila-finland-commission-spitzenkandidat-process-not-binding-at-all/
Previously in Europe Pirates. On today's episode, we talk about the current state of France mostly, that one ghost from the Matrix is coming third in the polls and how Italy said that thing European countries aren't meant to say.
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Nonsense Section Hot damn, we have a name change Greek parliament ratifies the agreement which included changing the name of Macedonia (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/25/greek-mps-ratify-macedonia-name-change-historic-vote)... It was tight but they got 153 votes - curiously more than they had for the vote of confidence...
Salvini is a Kidnapper His not letting people in policy is apparently kidnapping in cases where the people were rescued by coast guard ships... since you're effectively saying they can't leave your own ships. I'm guess the Sicilian court is trolling a bit but it would be great if this went somewhere (https://www.dw.com/en/italy-court-rules-far-right-leader-salvini-can-be-charged-with-kidnapping/a-47224819)
Italian government split over Venezuela crisis 5Star Movement and far-right La Lega at loggerheads about Nicolás Maduro. M5S concerned that this is what happened to Libya while La Lega don't want to further alienate themselves from Europe.
Alessandro Di Battista, a former MP and top campaigner who is preparing to lead the 5Stars’ efforts against the League in the upcoming European election, replied to Salvini’s statement on his Facebook page: “Signing an ultimatum to Venezuela is bullshit. It’s the same identical scheme that was put in practice years ago with Libya and Gheddafi [sic].”
https://www.politico.eu/article/5star-league-italian-government-split-over-venezuela-crisis-alessandro-di-battista/
Pirate Politics is still a thing in Czechia They survived mostly because they have social concerns about income and junk.
https://www.politico.eu/article/czech-pirate-party-anti-establishment-ivan-bartos-ahoy/
Topic 1 France Fun Gilets Jaunes Party? They've announced a party list for the EU elections called RIC - of Citizens Initiative Rally (https://www.euronews.com/2019/01/24/raw-politics-gilets-jaunes-protesters-announce-candidates-for-european-elections, French article with more detail - http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/le-scan/2019/01/23/25001-20190123ARTFIG00274-europeennes-une-premiere-liste-gilets-jaunes-conduite-par-ingrid-levavasseur-presentee.php)
There was polling from the day before which had this hypothetical party list polling at 13%, with votes coming from across the board (https://elabe.fr/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/20192301elabebfmtv_les-francais-et-lelection-europeenne.pdf). FN (NR?) would lose 3%, a lot of parties would lose 1% or so.
This is just one poll but this would mean they'd come in third, ahead of what we used to call the "major" parties...
The protests themselves are still happening
French people: Macron is a bit of a shit Another poll this time talking about what Macron needs to change. 66% say he's not changed since the protests began and 80% want him to change how he expresses himself (i.e. not be so smug?). 73% of his own party's voters agree with the latter.
Also 78% say he should change his economic policy. This all when his approval ratings hover in the 30s
(https://www.lejdd.fr/Politique/sondage-voici-5-choses-quemmanuel-macron-doit-changer-selon-les-francais-3845999)
Salvini says Macron is terrible and don't vote for him “In France they have a bad government and a bad president of the Republic,” (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/23/italian-deputy-pm-matteo-salvini-calls-on-french-voters-not-to-back-macron)
Di Maio thinks they've been creating poverty in Africa (https://www.euronews.com/2019/01/27/france-s-macron-dismisses-attacks-by-italy-s-matteo-salvini-and-luigi-di-maio).
“France has never stopped colonising tens of African states,” said Di Maio, leader of the populist Five Star Movement. “The EU should sanction France, and all countries like France, that impoverish Africa and make these people leave, because Africans should be in Africa, not at the bottom of the Mediterranean.”
(https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/27/italy-france-refugee-dispute-awakens-dark-colonial-legacy-migration)
Also France and Germany are Officially Friends Again Phew... without this new treaty I don't know where we'd stand (https://www.eurotopics.net/en/213282/treaty-of-aachen-unifying-or-divisive#)
Vaguely stating that populism is bad is all the rage these days, so I guess they thought they'd get in on the action (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/22/france-and-germany-renew-postwar-vows-of-friendship)
Let's have a town hall Pictures of Macron and people in sashes is a way to make the public feel heard. I'm not saying it's bad to have a national "listening" tour - but he's pretty clear that this isn't going to affect broad change in policy. Which is the thing the protesters and apparently a lot of the country want (https://www.euronews.com/2019/01/22/macron-s-great-national-debate-what-is-it-and-how-does-it-work-euronews-answers)
Previously in Europe Topics. On today's episode, we have a lighter episode of fun smaller stories to escape the horrible reality of murder and Brexit.
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Nonsense Section Leather Face Runs for EPP It is happening again... Berlusconi is running for the European Parliment... ( https://www.euronews.com/2019/01/17/berlusconi-announces-candidacy-for-european-elections-due-to-sense-of-responsibility) Prediction for news in May post election - sexual harassment in Brussels is up
LeapCard can't print fadas Irish transport authority blames ‘technical limitation’ for lack of fadas (the diacritic found in the Irish language á é í ó ú) on Leap cards. The list of people complaining illustrates. Liam Ó Maonlaí, Bláthnaid Ní Chofaigh as examples
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/21/irish-state-agency-refuses-to-spell-names-correctly-on-public-transport-pass
Greek PM Tsipras wins vote of confidence (https://www.politico.eu/article/greek-pm-alexis-tsipras-wins-vote-of-confidence-macedonia-name/) Was tight but 1 independent, 4 from the ANEL and one from a centrist party gave them 151 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-greece-government-parliament/greek-pm-tsipras-wins-confidence-vote-eyes-macedonia-accord-idUSKCN1PA1G4?il=0. They're planning on having the vote on the agreement on Thursday.
Macron’s ignoring ALDE apparently Politico reports there's not been a lot of communication between en Marche and ALDE, with the former wanting to focus on domestic candidates rather than contributing to a pan European manifesto ( https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-liberal-alde-love-affair-goes-cold/)
Macron starts 'grand debate' tour after yellow vests protests. This will go well https://euobserver.com/tickers/143917
French president Emmanuel Macron kicked off a two-month national debate tour on Tuesday, meeting some 600 mayors from across Normandy in the northern town of Grand Bourgtheroulde. The town hall-style discussions, announced in a six-page letter on Sunday, are meant to address issues raised by the 'yellow vest' protests and will be broadcast live. Police used tear gas to disperse protesters gathered outside the venue and arrested several.
https://euobserver.com/tickers/143917
Polling predicts people aren't interested anyway (https://www.dw.com/en/france-thousands-of-police-mobilize-for-9th-yellow-vests-protests/a-47053247)
Guy Verhofstadt is cool for five seconds https://euobserver.com/tickers/143932 which is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Group_of_Thirty but then https://euobserver.com/tickers/143934
EUObserver reports "Verhofstadt wanted Draghi out of G30 group" which is one of those large terrible international financial organizations that are terrible. The EU ombudsmen has previously called for Draghi to be removed before due to "undue influence" but later it was revealed "Verhofstadt voted for Draghi amendment 'by mistake'"
In response to Salvini closing ports Germany is sending people back to Italy As Salvini continues his fun policy of letting people drown in the sea, Germany deports record number of refugees back to Italy following the Dublin agreement because nobody wants to sign a new deal... (https://www.dw.com/en/germany-deports-record-number-of-refugees-to-other-eu-states/a-47161202). Also I suspect it makes AKK and CSD very happy. This is really still only a drop in the bucket at less than 10,000 and Germany still taking proportionally more migrants than most EU countries.
A powerhouse of trade https://euobserver.com/tickers/143901
The Faroe Islands and the UK will sign a free-trade agreement later this month to keep trade going after Brexit.
sheep view 360 - https://visitfaroeislands.com/sheepview360/
Previously in Europe FYROM. On today's episode, we look at Greek politics mostly, Hugh explains something very important and complex about modern Greek politics while Ciarán deep dives into the Greek Communist party's past. Man the Balkan Wars sure were a trip.
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Previously in Europe military micro influencers. This week we check in on Italy's government again but via a discussion of the Italian left in the form of the PD and their weird origins.
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And When did Panic! At the Disco become audibly indistinguishable from Maroon 5?!
Show Notes: Nonsense Section Join the Army or Police Fellow Kids Yhe Berlin police have a Vlog to encourage female recruits, it's hip https://www.dw.com/en/berlin-police-youtube-blog-targets-young-female-recruits/a-46965619
The UK army is down with the kids https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/06/forget-these-modish-posters-army-recruitment-targets-the-vulnerable
Hungary Slave Law https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/01/thousands-rally-hungary-slave-law-pm-orban-190105172837081.html
Thousands of Hungarians have rallied in capital Budapest demanding the abolition of the so-called "slave-law" that allows employers to demand that staff work up to 400 hours of overtime a year and even delay payments for up to three years.
Hungary's government, controlled by the right-wing Fidesz party, claims the law is meant to ease a labour shortage in the country, where the official unemployment rate stands at 3.7 percent.
President Janos Ader signed the reform into law just before Christmas, despite more than 10 days of sometimes violent clashes between demonstrators and police in the capital and other cities.
The Italian """Left""" Origin Story The Italian Democratic Party (PD) comes from the Italian Communist Party (PCI) which split into several left parties in 1991 which then eventually merged with each other as well as some ChristDem parties and LibDem parties (dramatic music intensifies) who'd worked together in the Interim (Called the Olive Tree)
PCI Leader Palmiro Togliatti famously described his party’s combination of Bolshevik tradition and Italian patriotism as like the body of a giraffe: oddly shaped yet functional to a certain purpose.
Because of this left tradition Lega politicians, like Salvini can claim that the left have been in charge of Italy for 20 years when they aren't really left and have had to make many deals with the right throughout the years.
As an example Renzi come from the ChristDem tradition so realistically we should've seen this coming.
The Modern PD is like one of those fucked up giraffes that's been extinct since the end of the ice age when the Soviet Union fell
They regular host gatherings that are named for a communist magazine founded by Gramsci (Festo De L'Unita)
At the events they host South American former Marxist guerillas and anti-Nazi punk bands, but at the same time also host talks from IMF budget regulators.
The Future of the PD There's this lad right? Called Nicola Zingaretti who's claim to fame is being the only Mayor of Lazio who was reelected. He's being presented as a Corbynite figure. He's not, but he's the left-wing of the party which is upsetting.
- He's no policy or plan to steal votes from the M5S or Lega
- Considers working with the left-wing of M5S
- Talks about increasing online presence 🎉
Italy’s Government Wants To Change How Medicine Works Giulia Grillo, the 5* health minister, decided initially that you didn't really need to prove your children had their vaccines to go to school and then changed her mind (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/04/politically-motivated-italys-m5s-sacks-peak-board-of-health-experts).
She's also fired most or all of the panel of health experts that are supposed to advise her on the science - https://news.vice.com/en_us/article/3k95bk/italy-anti-vaxx-grillo-higher-health-council
Walter Ricciardi, the president of the National Health Institute, has resigned over unscientific government positions (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/03/italian-health-chief-resigns-over-anti-scientific-policies)
Happy new years you gorgeous souls, on this weeks episode we talk about the upcoming EU Election.
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And When did Panic! At the Disco become audibly indistinguishable from Maroon 5?!
Show Notes: New Year Spectacular Voting is what now? The election is happening in May between the 23rd and 26th.
It varies from country to country, but they all use some form of proportional representation (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elections_to_the_European_Parliament#Voting_system). Some have national party-lists (which are garbage) and some have big constituencies (Like Ireland, Belgium). Some countries use STV instead of party lists (Like Ireland and Malta). Germany, Italy and Poland use what appears to me to be an intentionally complicated system...
Spitzenkandidat? Europe Elects has a well updated list of candidates (https://europeelects.eu/2019spitzenkandidaten/). A party's candidate matters in a similar way to a prime minister candidate, but local politics will be more important in most countries. National parties do campaigning under their own banner usually, not the grouping they fall into in the EU parliament, the effect will vary county to country.
Also there's still the looming possibility the Spitzenkandidat of the largest EU party doesn't actually get the commission president job anyway. The Council in theory puts forward commission presidents to the parliament, who have a veto.
"Ground Breaking" Outreach The parliament has launched a website (https://what-europe-does-for-me.eu/) to explain why the EU is so cool.
For instance if you're someone who "likes shopping online" the EU is totally for you - https://what-europe-does-for-me.eu/en/portal/2/G04
... Yes this will create an improved voter turnout. The 2014 election had only a turnout of 163,551,013 (42.54%)
"Polls are always wrong anyway" There a three great aggregators of polls:
- https://europeanelectionsstats.eu/ They have a good seat projection based on a combination of national polls and PollofPolls.eu. They also put parties into general buckets of far right, left and moderate
- https://pollofpolls.eu/EU which has some trend lines based on national polling. They handily show major events on their graphs to explain changes. Along with that they provide analysis
- Europe Elects (https://europeelects.eu/ep2019/) some nice seat projections based on similar data sources. Their maps are great showing EU party projections by country.
General outcome:
- ALDE up
- Far right would be up if they all grouped together... but they don't like each other sometimes.
- S&D will take a hit from losing Labour and not replacing it
- EPP could see a hit but will almost certainly still "win" the election and probably be in a good place to put Weber up for President of the Commission
The polls underestimated the EPP and ALDE in the last election by quite a bit https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_European_Parliament_election
Macron Who Now? His current popularity means they might get very few MEPs.. so Macron's agenda will probably go nowhere? It depends, if ALDE end up as part of the ruling coalition it might be because of his support - but really anything could happen. En Marche may be a toxic association by May at this rate
Don't forget the B word I guess Brexit could just not happen... who knows... that'd really ruin all the hard work people have put into seat projections
Parties are actually called Groupings but the effective difference is...something
Here are the links to each "party" mentioned
http://www.guengl.eu/
https://www.greens-efa.eu/en/
https://www.socialistsanddemocrats.eu/
https://alde.eu/en/
https://www.eppgroup.eu/
https://www.ecrgroup.eu/
http://www.efddgroup.eu/
https://www.enfgroup-ep.eu/
Things you can do
- Vote, I mean, yeah.
- Talk about the election with friends and families
- Talk to non-native EU-immigrant friends, make sure they know they can vote and how to do so, help them with translations and government bureaucracy if they have trouble with the local language.
- Do your research and join and volunteer with a national party you support
This week Hugh does a solo episode running down the sort of not really government collapse in Belgium.
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Show Notes: Is Belgium in the mood for an election? Michel I is dead, long live Michel II Belgium now has a minority government! Technically since the PM didn't offer his resignation to the King the government is still the same but has a vastly different cabinet and is missing its largest coalition partner.
Now the government is the Reformist Movement (Wallonia), Open Flemish Liberals and Democrats and Christian Democratic Flemish (guess where they're from...).
This is after N-VA (New Flemish Alliance - Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie) quit the government over the UN Migration Treaty. They made up 31 of the seats 83 the government had (out of 150), so not a majority but a large chunk.
Wait, they can just keep the government? So it's complicated... in a lot of parliaments they'd be out by now. No majority, with hostile opposition calling for a confidence vote? They'd be gone. Probably not in Belgium. Constitutional scholars seem to disagree on whether the 1993 changes to the constitution means they government needs to have a vote of confidence to continue (https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2018/12/10/moet-de-regering-het-vertrouwen-van-het-parlement-vragen/). Any vote of confidence would be voluntary... unless the opposition parties can convince everyone that's not the case.
Either way there's an election in May There's an election due on the same day as the EU parliament elections (by design from now on) - so late May (23–26). That is unless there's snap elections. It's also unclear whether snap elections would trigger a parliamentary term just until that date or for a 5 year term... the constitution says so after the reforms put in place after the 2010/2011 government formation nonsense... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Belgian_federal_election#cite_ref-3
So Hows That Election Looking? N-VA are on a polling high in the 20-30 range (20% in the last election). The remaining coalition are polling just fine. MR is around 16% (9% last election).. but of course they are in a minority government so this is their opportunity to run the country, they could easily not be in control post election.
For those not familiar with Belgium politics Michel is pretty conservative.. but N-VA is the Flemish nationalist party - they sit with the British Conservatives in the EU parliament. It wants a separate Flemish state... but with free market economics, tax cuts and EU membership... it's an odd bag. For context there's a party to the right of them which wants out of the EU and is just generally racist.
So they left the government? So it passed the parliament with support from opposition members and most of the government (minus N-VA). Michel said this let him sign it... the N-VA said he needed support of the government (which based on how no confidence votes seems to work there makes sense)(https://www.politico.eu/article/belgium-charles-michel-to-head-to-parliament-amid-political-crisis-government-un-migration/).
They said they wouldn't leave over it... and then they did (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/09/world/europe/belgium-government-un-migration.html, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/09/belgium-government-loses-majority-over-un-migration-pact)
So the N-VA don't like the UN? They feel very strongly about non-binding international agreements on not being shitty to people (https://www.dw.com/en/what-is-the-un-migration-pact-and-why-do-some-oppose-it/a-46129568). Things like "agreeing to gather anonymized data to accurately track migration" in order to engage in an evidenced based dialogue would be political suicide for peddlers or bullshit
Previously in Europe, French Traffic Safety. This week we discuss the either occurring right now or never occurring Russian invasion or Ukraine and the Yellow Vests Movement in France.
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Show Notes!
Nonsense Section Attempted no confidence in Babis They surrived by just 9 votes... (https://www.politico.eu/article/andrej-babis-czech-pm-babis-survives-no-confidence-vote-sparked-by-sons-kidnap-claims/) This was sparked by claims from his son that he was kidnapped to prevent him from speaking to investigators over the EU funds scandal Babis is embroiled in (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/13/czech-pm-andrej-babis-future-hangs-in-balance-after-sons-kidnap-claims) His comments to the parliment included: "My son … agreed to leave the Czech Republic so that his health would not deteriorate" "I don’t know everywhere they went. Sometimes I got a photo." President Zeman in his classy style said he would have just asked Babis to form another government anyway...
Analysis from Czech media is basically that the cooalition partners really don't want an election soon so this was unlikely to pass just to get rid of a controvertial PM
https://www.eurotopics.net/en/210487/why-the-opposition-can-t-topple-babis?pk_campaign=rss-en&pk_kwd=2018-11-23
Kosovo has gotten messier again In the wake of a failed bid to join Interpol they've put 100% tarrifs on Serbian goods... yay (https://www.rferl.org/a/kosovo-slaps-100-percent-tariffs-on-serbia-bosnia-to-defend-vital-interest-/29613285.html) This is up from a previous rate of 10%. They say they're going to announce "additional actions soon" - deputy PM.
Serbia think's it'd be real cool to just invade - https://euobserver.com/foreign/143620
Georgian presidential election https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgian_presidential_election,_2018
A second round involving Salome Zurabishvili and Grigol Vashadze was held on 28 November 2018 because no candidate was able to secure at least 50% of the vote in the first round. Salome Zurabishvili won with around 60% of the vote and will be taking office on 16 December 2018.
Andalusian State Election https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Andalusian_regional_election
The PSOE–A remained the most voted party but suffered an unforeseen setback, dropping from 47 to 33 seats. A far-right party, Vox, gained parliamentary representation in a regional parliament in Spain for the first time since the country's return to democracy, benefiting from a collapse in the People's Party (PP) vote which saw it nearly tied in votes with Cs. For the first time in the electoral history of Andalusia, right-of-centre parties commanded an absolute majority of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia, which would allow a non-Socialist government to take power in the region after 36 years of uninterrupted PSOE rule.
Luxembourg is cool now https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/05/luxembourg-to-become-first-country-to-make-all-public-transport-free
Luxembourg is set to become the first country in the world to make all its public transport free. Fares on trains, trams and buses will be lifted next summer under the plans of the re-elected coalition government led by Xavier Bettel. Bettel, whose Democratic party will form a government with the left-wing Socialist Workers’ party and the Greens, had vowed to prioritise the environment during the recent election campaign.
On top of the transport pledge, the new government is also considering legalising cannabis and introducing two new public holidays.
Luxembourg City has a population of 110,000 but a further 400,000 commute in to work. Luxembourg has a population of 600,000 but about 200,000 come in from Germany, France and Belgium to work. A study suggested that drivers in the capital spent an average of 33 hours in traffic jams in 2016.
Topic 1 Ukraine might totally get invaded... So this nonsense has escelated (https://www.eurotopics.net/en/210725/crisis-in-the-sea-of-azov-a-solution-in-sight) and Germany has already specifically they won't impose more sanctions... in an apeasementy sort of way.
So the whole Kerch Strait incident Russia has decided to put the Ukranian navy members, "arrested" in the Kerch strait, on trial instead of treating them like POWs (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/25/russia-border-guards-ram-tugboat-ukraine-navy-crimea)
This is a notable change since this is Russians in their official uniform taking control of Ukranian ships... not mystery soldiers claiming to not be from Russia... so I guess they're now admitting it, cool (https://www.politico.eu/article/in-ukraine-its-no-longer-about-little-green-men-russia-agression-azov-sea-kerch-strait/)
Ukraine imposing martial law Planned for 30 days in all regions bordering Russia (https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraines-martial-law/29623833.html). Saying they're putting Donetsk under martial law is kind of unnecessary since there's not exactly normal function there anyway due to the separatists...
Any change from Europe? Merkel's successor is more anti Nord Stream 2, which is good for Ukraine... but her opponents were "more" https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/merkels-party-picks-her-successor-heres-what-it-means-for-ukraine-nord-stream-2.html
The US and the rest of NATO? The US is apparently planning to put a ship in the Black Sea... (https://edition.cnn.com/2018/12/05/politics/us-navy-black-sea-russia-ukraine/index.html). Russia claims that Ukraine are using the martial law as cover to starting a big Eastern offensive. Ukraine and others claim Russia is massing tanks big enough to be visible on google maps
President Petro Poroshenko warns that Russia is masssing troops on the border, possibly for an invasion or full control of the Eastern parts of the country. He didn't give details for a timeline but claimed tank presence had trippled (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/27/russia-to-charge-ukrainian-sailors-as-kerch-crisis-deepens)
Topic 2 Jiley Joons Polling:
http://harris-interactive.fr/opinion_polls/les-gilets-jaunes-quelle-perception-de-la-part-des-francais-au-lendemain-de-la-manifestation-du-1er-decembre-sur-les-champs-elysees/
72% of people support the movement (92% of FI voters, 85% of PS voters, 26% of LREM voters, 54% of LR voters and 90% of FN voters)
DEMANDS
The demands can be found here: https://www.opendemocracy.net/can-europe-make-it/france-bleu/demands-of-frances-yellow-vests-as-uploaded-by-france-bleu-november-29
State of Emergency has meant that Macron has been a big meanie
https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2017/05/france-unchecked-clampdown-on-protests-under-guise-of-fighting-terrorism/
According to Amnesty International, the state of emergency that has been in place since the November 2015 Paris attacks has been used to clampdown on protests with authorities using emergency powers to stop protests related to the Labor law reforms 574 times.
Protests have been ongoing
SNCF and other transport union protests
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/04/thousands-protest-macron-reforms-france-180419172833706.html
Carrefour (France's biggest employer) was also on strike
https://www.connexionfrance.com/French-news/Carrefour-Strike-called-by-unions-for-March-31
The Socialists are going to table a no confidence vote on Monday They realistically can't win due to en Marche having a big majority in the parliament... but it's notable they're trying
Wealthy Tax break Don't forget when Macron cut student money and taxes to the wealthy at the same time? https://www.ft.com/content/3d907582-b893-11e7-9bfb-4a9c83ffa852
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Show Notes: Voting History * Rejected narrowly in June after 2 years of negotiations and drafts (https://www.politico.eu/article/european-parliament-votes-to-block-copyright-reform/) * After some edits and a whole lot of lobbying it passed parliament (https://www.theverge.com/2018/9/12/17849868/eu-internet-copyright-reform-article-11-13-approved,
https://news.vice.com/en_us/article/9kv5pa/eu-copyright-directive-vote-internet, https://www.politico.eu/article/european-parliament-axel-voss-backs-copyright-reform-against-tech-giants-google-facebook/)
Some of this is fine: Article 3 proposes an exemption for text and data mining for scientific research - this would be sweet as generating data-sets is a massive pain as it is! This would potentially create a case to open up more scientific research to being used in research (see the open access movement if you're not familiar with why is this such a problem)
Article 4 potentially adds exemptions for using copyrighted works in educational material including digitally (So "on the interweb"?)
Article 14 adds some transparency obligations for rights holders to the original performers, requiring them to provide updated on the use and any payment owed
Article 15 would allow for renegoiation for authors who have found their royalties from rights holders to be disproportionately low.
Some of it is not fine in its current form * Article 13 takes aim at "online content sharing service providers", aimed at getting rid in part of the "Mere conduit" exception from the original 2001 directive. The original being written in a time before YouTube or proper social media as we now know it didn't imagine YouTube not being liable for copyright just because they're only the "conduit". It seems pretty specifically targeted
"...store and give the public access to a large amount of works or other subject-matter uploaded by its users which [they] organise and promote for profit-making purposes"
- Article 11, or so called "link tax", does something which appears very straightforward:
"Member States shall provide publishers of press publications with the rights provided for in Article 2 and Article 3(2) of Directive 2001/29/EC for the digital use of their press publications"
So those two are detailed in the original 2001 directive here (https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=CELEX:32001L0029&from=EN). Cool so that's fine right... but way so publishing excerpts in the way Facebook and Google do won't be cool anymore. That might be a problem, people love their Google news and sweet Facebook links.
Mega Corporations react to... complex regulations YouTube have launched a pretty full on attack against the directive, specifically targeting "article 13". Their CEO wrote an op-ed for the FT and republished it on their blog (I guess to be paywall free.. https://youtube-creators.googleblog.com/2018/11/i-support-goals-of-article-13-i-also.html).
Their argument is effectively that if you hold them directly accountable for copyright infringement on their platform they will probably just have to block things from outside the EU to EU countries. What about creators in the EU? Their content will probably have to just be deleted.
Content ID, YouTube's often controversial and much hated system for automatically flagging copyrighted material, already exists. They instead "welcome the chance to work with policymakers and the industry to develop a solution within article 13 that protects rights holders while also allowing the creative economy to thrive", which sounds like "let's make a more aggressive version of Content ID". The existing system already has problems with cases of record labels trying to claim copyright on music they clearly don't own and any version of fair use being ignored (Nintendo's aggressive removal of game play clips being a good example). It's already very in favor of the rights holder... Unsurprisingly YouTube's suggestion makes it good for YouTube because at the cost of some more development money they get to remain the only platform with the existing tech to have a 'compliant' user generated platform.
Their core point makes a lot of sense - the EU has written the regulation in terms that don't really make sense on the scale of YouTube. Regulators are in a sense asking for a system where only things which have been vetted will get posted... This is basically impossible for the volume YouTube adds daily. For music this would probably mean a return to mid 00s style music piracy to some extent in Europe where nobody got paid at all. How would something like Mastodon be approached since they're technically not the "platform", people running instances would be responsible.
They've created a whole page of videos where hip YouTubers from Europe explain why this is bad https://www.youtube.com/saveyourinternet/ . It also includes a Youtube guy talking in his best YouTube voice explaining they'd simply have to block EU YouTubers. It's well polished but really their search for compromise is probably not in the interest of the little guy.
Extend the existing directive This is effectively an attempt to expand the Copyright Directive (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copyright_Directive) to cover social media, expand the use of automated controls and generally make the directive more modern. The extensions proposed and approved by the parliament are pretty extensive (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Directive_on_Copyright_in_the_Digital_Single_Market)
Full text - https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=CELEX:52016PC0593&from=EN
Criticism So there's two great examples which lay out some good objections to the way this is described:
EFF (https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2018/10/effs-letter-eus-copyright-directive-negotiators)
Two main problems described:
- Copyright complains are currently wildly overused because there's no repercussion for incorrectly claiming copyright as it is... so making the claims stronger is a terrible idea.
"Online service providers should be able to pre-emptively strike off a rightsholder who has been found to be abusive of Article 13 by another provider."
- Article 11 is way too broad in its current language. What is a link? How big a quotation requires permission? I'd say a lot of online publications don't want it to be any length.. but if the EU wants to direct this they need to have specifics!
Julia Reda MEP, Pirate Party (https://juliareda.eu/2018/11/youtube-article-13/)
On the more idealistic end - They're both wrong. YouTube's compromise will just end with hyped up Content Id and the existing text is only there for the music and paywall news industry to get some version of their old business model back in a world that's moved on from it.
A sadder part from a parliament member is that there's worry the good parts will be quietly removed in renegotiation in order to get to a compromise... so the actual artists get nothing new but the companies that benefit from and those who collect their lenience fees get a bunch.
Previously in Europe, €8000. This week we discuss the utility of giving the far right exactly what they want as a fun tactic for beating them.
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Show Notes: Nonsense Section Ireland thinks Poland's courts are okay I guess After we discussed how they were potentially not going to send him back to Poland... they have (https://euobserver.com/tickers/143429) The ECJ basically said they need to decide on a case by case basis. The Irish high court decided it's okay in this case (https://www.thejournal.ie/poland-extradition-4346908-Nov2018/) "It is important to state that it is the courts in Poland and, perhaps if he were to be convicted and have that conviction upheld on appeal, the European Court of Human Rights, that will have to decide whether any trial of this respondent (Mr Celmer) actually meets the Polish and ECHR standards respectively of right to a fair trial before an independent and impartial judiciary." His lawyers are planning to appeal from the sounds of it but this is possibly the beginning of the end for Poland's judicial wranglings with the EU (https://www.eurotopics.net/en/210406/poland-suspends-forced-retirement-of-judges), though pro government news outlets seem to think this is just a minor setback for their "reforms"
Brexit Dealz? So there's been a Brexit deal approved by the EU! So... Well nothings happened because the UK parliament may vote against it. We don't know when the vote will be (https://inews.co.uk/news/brexit/brexit-deal-when-parliament-vote-theresa-may-draft-agreement/) The deal has a lot of concessions for the UK but also the EU... the backstop for the Northern Ireland border is probably the most interesting bit (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/25/may-brexit-deal-explained-eu-withdrawal-agreement-trade-backstop-citizens-rights) Whether she'll have to face a no confidence vote is still up in the air because the process for calling one is a secret letter from MPs based system...
AfD is in trouble https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/13/afd-co-leader-faces-calls-to-resign-over-campaign-donations
Alice Weidel’s (AfD Co-leader) office received €130,000 from non-EU donor before last year’s election
Alice Weidel’s office near Lake Constance, in southern Germany, received a total of €130,000 (£110,000) in individual payments of 9,000 Swiss francs between July and September 2017.
She tried to return the money but returned €8000 - https://www.dw.com/en/afd-donor-scandal-weidel-under-official-investigation/a-46384979?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
Topic 1 Hilary is wrong and bad The garbage opinion piece that broke twitter
Or maybe more specifically like my twitter: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/22/hillary-clinton-europe-must-curb-immigration-stop-populists-trump-brexit
Hillary Clinton: Europe must curb immigration to stop rightwing populists
"Europe must get a handle on immigration to combat a growing threat from rightwing populists, Hillary Clinton has said, calling on the continent’s leaders to send out a stronger signal showing they are “not going to be able to continue to provide refuge and support”."
Europe's pretty fuckin' brutal to migrants as it is
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2018/nov/14/didnt-give-a-damn-refugees-film-croatian-police-brutality-bosnia
"As screams ring out through the cold night air, Sami, hidden behind bushes, begins to film what he can.
“The Croatian police are torturing them. They are breaking people’s bones,’’ Sami whispers into his mobile phone, as the dull thumps of truncheons are heard."
Previously in Europe, Hugh. This week Ciarán has a solo episode where I take a look at European parliament projections and what nonsense might befall us come 2019.
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Previously in Europe Salvini's girlfriend. This week we discuss the annual questionable displays at Poland's independence celebrations and the Nord Stream 2, Russia's favorite geopolitical legitimate business venture.
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Show Notes: Nonsense Section EPP Picks Spitzenkanditat Centre-right sets rules to pick EU lead candidate
Politicians frome the centre-right European People's Party (EPP) who want to run for lead candidate for next year's European elections will have to declare themselves between 6 September and 17 October, the party's political assembly decided on Monday. The candidate, who will be the candidate for president of the European Commission, will be chosen at the EPP congress in Helsinki on 8 November.
https://euobserver.com/tickers/141555
EPP votes for Weber to be its Spitzenkandidat
Germany's Manfred Weber was chosen by delegates to be the lead candidate for the European People's Party (EPP) for May 2019's European elections, at the party's congress in Helsinki on Thursday. Weber, the EPP group leader in the European Parliament, beat Finland's former prime minister Alexander Stubb by 492 votes to 127. Weber will now seek to clinch the presidency of the European Commission, if the EPP win the elections.
https://euobserver.com/tickers/143328
Zalan's horny for this one:
"They looked like twins from a boy band. White shirts, no ties, deep and lighter blue jackets, white handkerchiefs above the heart, wide smiles. They also sang the same tunes."
yeesh
https://euobserver.com/political/143322
Polls: EPP to retain top spot at May 2019 election
A poll analysis by Reuters news agency predicts that the centre-right EPP will remain the biggest group in the European Parliament following the European elections in May. The analysis is based on polls in the 27 EU states. The analysis suggests Manfred Weber, the EPP's lead candidate to replace Jean-Claude Juncker, could become the next president of the European Commission.
https://euobserver.com/tickers/143338
Macron being a silly boy Macron's plan to pay tribute to Nazi collaborator Pétain stirs anger
The French president has said it is “legitimate” to pay tribute to Marshal Philippe Pétain. He took part in the Battle of Verdun and is a WW1 hero
Two decades later, Pétain was appointed prime minister of France. His administration, based in the unoccupied part of the country known as Vichy France, collaborated with the Nazis and their deportation and extermination of the Jews.
After the war, Pétain was sentenced to death for treason, though President Charles de Gaulle, a longtime fanboy of Pétain, reduced the punishment to life in prison.
Melenchon dragged Macron on Twitter
“Marshal Joffre was the military victor of the 1914-18 war. Pétain was a traitor and an antisemite. His crimes and his betrayal cannot be erased from history. Macron, this time, you’ve gone too far.”
Matteo Salvini's Romance Section Salvini says he doesn't put his personal life online... his ex disagrees https://www.euronews.com/2018/11/06/girlfriend-of-italian-interior-minister-matteo-salvini-announces-breakup-in-intimate-post
There were sort of Serbian-Kosovo talks on Thursday So there were announced surprise talks between Kosovo and Serbia on Nov 8, seemingly brokered by EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini...
https://www.rferl.org/a/brussels-to-host-serbia-kosovo-talks-amid-tensions-over-tariffs/29588174.html
Seemingly largely because Kosovo are planning on forming an army to be deployed in the north and they've announced tariffs on Serbian agricultural imports...
The talks didn't really take place - breaking down because the president Vucic says the Serbians want the tariffs lifted first before normalization talks.
https://www.euractiv.com/section/enlargement/news/kosovo-serbia-talks-break-down-as-tensions-mount-again/
https://www.rferl.org/a/normalization-talks-kosovo-serbia-hit-snag-tariff-dispute-kosovo-army-vucic-thaci/29590907.html
This picture - https://twitter.com/eu_eeas/status/1060613518154743809 - says it all
Topic 1: Poland being scary Polish leaders hold joint march with nationalists on 100th anniversary of Independence Day
Around 200,000 people, including Poland's leaders and nationalist groups, marched through Warsaw on Sunday 11th for the 100th anniversary of Polish independence.
The march is a focus of debate about whether the ruling PiS tacitly encourages fascist and anti-Semitic movements.
Participants held banners saying "God, Honour, Homeland," and launched red flares. Some chanted: "Pride, pride, national pride" and "Poland should be national, not red or rainbow-coloured" Far-right groups and neo-fascist activists from Italy also joined the procession.
"Thank you for coming here, for Poland, and for bringing the white and red flag which saw our fathers, grandfathers and great-grandfathers spill their blood," President Andrzej Duda, a PiS ally, said at the start of the march.
Warsaw’s mayor last Wednesday announced a ban on the far-right march, but a Polish court overturned it, citing constitutional rights of freedom of assembly. Security fears were amplified by a mass walk-out of police officers over pay in the days leading up to the centenary.
Last year, the annual far-right march was dotted with racist banners such as "Pure blood, clear mind" and "Europe will be white or uninhabited".
Topic 2: Nord Stream 2 Some links from April:
https://euobserver.com/foreign/141584
https://euobserver.com/energy/141570
https://euobserver.com/tickers/141562
What is Nord Stream? A gas pipeline stupid. It connects Russia and Germany. Its' owned and operated by the Nord Stream AG group, but Gazprom owns 51%.. so it's effectively a method of supplying Russian gas to Germany.
So what? Well a few things...
The baltic states and Ukraine hate it They're worried it would remove their role as "transit countries" so Russia can threaten to cut their gas supplies without affecting the Western countries' supply... meaning Nato countries could ignore Ukraine... sure... unlike now
- Interview with deputy foreign minister of Ukraine - https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-deputy-foreign-minister-worried-about-nord-stream-2/av-46226969
- Quotes from academics in Lithuania - "Nord Stream threatens our security. It also imports corruption and shadow dealing in the EU," Dovile Sukyte, of the Eastern Europe Study Center in Vilnius, said. "Lithuania invests heavily in energy projects that reduce reliance on Russia (https://www.dw.com/en/angela-merkel-faces-suspicion-in-baltics/a-45463745)
The Ukranians kind of have a point * The Donbas region is just plain old occupied and they're now holding elections (https://www.unian.info/politics/10332642-mogherini-eu-considers-elections-in-russian-occupied-donbas-illegal-not-to-recognize-them.html)... as a repeat of the 2014 elections - just a reminder that this is still going on (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donbassgeneralelections,2014) * There's been chatter on Russian state television that sanctions on fuel exports to Ukraine could be on the cards (https://economics.unian.info/10331805-petrol-war-russia-threatens-to-block-fuel-supplies-to-ukraine.html) ahead of the 2019 elections (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainianparliamentaryelection,2019) - to you know make it seem like pro EU parties are weak and can't do anything
Wait - 2? What happened to Nord Stream 1? * So it's there.. apparently running at half capacity in 2011... * But according to them it's now at 93% (https://www.nord-stream.com/press-info/press-releases/nord-stream-reaches-average-utilisation-of-93-in-2017-51-bcm-delivered-to-the-european-union-500/) * Various lawsuits and what not between the Polish state gas company and Ukraine with the EU have become less effective or been defeated, increasing the usage of Nord Stream quite a bit (https://www.mckinseyenergyinsights.com/insights/the-lifting-of-opal-capacity-restrictions-leads-to-shifting-gas-flows-on-nord-stream/) * According to a FT editorial the Ukranian pipeline is now at only 50%... so we don't need another one, it's pretty transparently avoiding countries Russia doesn't get along with (https://www.ft.com/content/53a811c4-a481-11e8-926a-7342fe5e173f)
Does this not sound like something the EU would hate? * Denmark may try and veto the route.. which would only move it out of Danish waters (https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-eu-gazprom-nordstream/nord-stream-2-seeks-alternative-route-to-avoid-danish-waters-idUKKBN1KV118), it wouldn't stop anything * In 2015 there were delays due to Gasprom sanctions and "politics" (https://uk.reuters.com/article/russia-gazprom-nordstream/update-2-gazprom-mothballs-extension-of-nord-stream-pipeline-idUSL6N0V71HO20150128) but that kind of went away * America hates it, a bunch of MEPs hate it, Poland really hate it... but it does keep gas prices in Germany low (https://www.politico.eu/article/putin-merkel-should-scuttle-nord-stream-2/, http://www.thenews.pl/1/10/Artykul/390978,MEPs-call-on-Germany%E2%80%99s-Merkel-to-halt-Nord-Stream-2-gas-project) * Vestenger thinks it's anti-trust - https://euobserver.com/foreign/141584. The commission in April 2018 produced a report detailing their strong arming of cross border fuel sales between Baltic and transit countries.
Previously in Europe, mailbags. This week we discuss the messages we've received from some of our lovely listeners and also the Irish presidential election because we're Irish and we can't help ourselves apparently.
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Previously in Europe a realistic description of European Commission oversight powers. This week Ciarán is away so Hugh gets to complain about coverage of fiscal matters without any checks or balances - much like the governments of the eurozone...
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Previously in Europe, pirates in Luxembourg. This week we discuss the Bavarian elections results which show us that there may or may not be a green wave in Germany, Luxembourg and Belgium. It also may or may not matter!
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Previously in Europe, Hugh. This week Ciarán is on his lonesome talking the BiH 2018 general election. Oh god. What?! Oh no!
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Previously in Europe, Borders. This week we talk about the recent Latvian election and the whole thing with Serbia swapping land with Kosovo, and why that won't happen anytime soon.
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Previously in Europe a suspiciously Italian Argentina . This week we return and catch up on the horrors of the nightmare coalition in Italy. They've been up to some things which... wow.. yeah..
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Previously in Europe, extradition treaties. Do people remember "Are You Afraid of the Dark?" does that reference scan? Anyway, on this episode, we discuss the sexuality of some Russian assassins, some idiots who don't know that Starship Troopers is a cautionary tale about Fascism and more importantly our topic is how real is the rise of the far-right. Fun stuff!
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Previously in Europe, good ideas. This week the cast makes it's glorious return after a couple of months off while caught up on life. We discuss the Swedish and Slovenian elections somewhat briefly. Then we spend some time discussing why article 7 is a massive waste of everyone's time. It's good to be back...
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Previously in Europe, Boris Johnson. This week we discuss the Trade Wars ™️ caused by the fallout of the Iran sanctions. We also talk about Armenia, Romania, the UK and Ciarán's new homeland Germany.
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Previously in Europe, successful summits. This week we discuss the many mixed bags of this week's European news.. mostly bad! We get deep on Dragnea's conviction for corruption in Romania!
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Oh man, we're trying something new with the solo episodes! Ciarán shares his opinions on the whole Manu situation in France and how the media constantly refers to La Lega as Populist.
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Previously in Europe, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. This week we cover what we've missed and also we intro a new section called the Rajoy's a Bastard Section. Professionalism!
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Previously in Europe, forced arbitration. This week we discuss the new burgeoning Italian Nightmare Coalition and the leaks involved.
Additionally, the Balkan Summit happened where Macron's and Brussels vision of Europe come to a head, but in like the most gentle diplomatic way possible.
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Previously in Europe, Technocrats. This week we discuss the many fun facets of the EU budget... or the multiannual financial framework... it's confusing.
Additionally the Czech president sort of raises the possibility they were the reason the UK and Russia aren't getting along so good... and oh Italy may have a government, sort of, we'll see...
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Previously in Europe, ETA. This week Hugh and Ciarán focus on the protests and resulting changes in Parliament in Armenia, which is definitely in Europe. Also the headlines follow up with Windrush, Italy and others.
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Previously in Europe, Ciarán. This week Hugh does a solo episode while Ciarán is away ranting about the Windrush scandal in the UK. Finally a non-Brexit scandal in Westminster to talk about... if only it weren't so horrifying.
Some details about Renford McIntyre at the New York Times. There a plenty of other cases documented by publications both major and more minor:
Some detailed ones from the Guardian:
- https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/apr/26/windrush-case-uk-to-settle-residency-status-of-albert-thompson
- https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/apr/27/windrush-cancer-victim-has-uk-residency-status-confirmed
David Lammy, MP for Tottenham which has a large population of first and second generation migrants, is on twitter most mornings with reports of new cases (though albeit without details).
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Previously in Europe, Hugh. This week it's a solo episode with myself, Ciarán doing the headlines from around Europe but before Hugh was busy we sat down and talked to Dominic and Katy of the Europeans make sure to check them out!
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Previously in Europe, two tailed dog. This week we discuss the re-election of Orban in Hungary with a fresh constitution editing super-majority. The voting system and potential misuse of government funds comes up...
Also the EU oven clocks were slow and Hollande gets catty about Macron in his new book.
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Previously in Europe, trains! This week we talk about Macron and what he plans to do with trains mostly, also we discuss Kosovo and it's long confusing history.
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Previously in Europe Puigdemont's freedom. This week we revisit the Catalan independence referendum in light of 2 members of the Catalan parliament being scooped up in an EU wide warrant. Cambridge Analytica (not a word) also gets a nice run through...
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Previously in Europe, Russian democracy. This week Hugh is busy but we do have a lovely interview with Kristaps of the Eastern Border about the future of Russia post-election.
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Previously in Europe, Prime Ministers. This week we discuss the ongoing corruption scandal rocking Slovakia with multiple resignations this week. Slovenia's prime minister also resigned but for far less interesting reasons. Russia probably assassinated an ex KGB agent and his fiancée in the UK which has gotten everyone a bit angry, thought maybe not with the right people, who knows. Le Pen thinks we'll forget about the FN's terrible past if they change their name... which well maybe some people will...
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Previously in Europe, US Steel. This week we discuss the Italian election results, as well as the Armenian presidential election and some of the goings-on in Catalonian government. We also talk about some internal EU stuff, Czech protests and a possible Slovakian snap election.
Following up from last week Hugh and Ciarán have been interviewed by Conversations with Europe blog so do check it out. Also, Ciarán was on the wholesome hoodlum podcast discussing comedy, Europe, anarchism and a whole lot of other stuff.
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Previously in Europe, Spring. This week we discuss the tense situation that is the Italian election happening on Sunday. We have a good chat about internal EU democracy spurred on by the promotion of Selmeyr from Junker's chief of staff.
We're very happed to have an interview with Rebecca Morris-Buck the creator of the Conversations with Europe blog discussing the project and the EU-related twitterverse.
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Previously in Europe, Putin? This week Ciarán does a solo episode running down briefly some of the news from around Europe. Mostly just the upcoming election, which will be intense.
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Previously in Europe, Schulz. This week Hugh does a solo episode running down briefly some of the news from around Europe. Also we have our first interview for quite a while with Sebastian Salek the creator of the Clear the Lobby newsletter
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Previously in Europe, The Balkans. This week we discuss the German Coalition and why it's even happening, we also discuss Greece and Not-Greece relations (I suspect it will be called Not-Greece by the time this podcast is out). Also, west Balkan expansion and some internal EU stuff.
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Previously in Europe Puigdemont's hopes and dreams. This week we catch up on developments in a lot of stories we've covered in the past few months from Germany's grand coalition talks to Ireland's now announced abortion referendum. VM and other German car makers are embroiled in another diesel related scandal. Zeeman is re-elected in the Czech republic and Israel is angry with Poland...
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Previously in Europe, Babis' immunity. This week we discuss the problems caused by previous and upcoming elections in the Czech Republic, Italy and Germany. We also talk about a new EU deal with Ethiopia & its own empty parliament seats. Also a new section on relations between nations and other things!
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Previously in Europe plastic. This week we discuss among other things the forcing out of yet another Romanian prime minister, Babis' government loses a no confidence vote, thought they will probably make a comeback... Effectively nobody shows up to the Estonian prime minister talking at the EU parliament. Oh and the German coalition proposition isn't going down well with the SPD local parties.
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Previously in Europe, an invadable Estonia! Today we discussed a lot of the things we missed in the new year such as reactions to the new Austrian government, the Czech presidential election and the comparatively fast decline of Euronews. Also Bulgaria. What is it and where does it come from?
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Previously in Europe, answers. This week we're answering listener questions submitted by email, Facebook, Twitter , etc. We'll be back to normal weekly shows for the second week in January.
Thanks to all that sent us questions, we got some really good stuff! Happy new year!
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Previously in Europe, 2017! We look at the year that just happened, also we talk about Catalonia, German Coalition building and all the other things we missed while Hugh had a plague and Ciarán was in Andalucia... eating burgers and calamari
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Previously in Europe, a coherent understanding of the Polish language. This week we discuss the surprise resignation of the Polish PM, Martin Schultz says some crazy stuff about federal Europe plans and Austria legalizes gay marriage (we're pretty sure). Down south Erdogan suggests moving the Greek border further into Greece and Macron loses in the Corsican elections. We're forced to talk some more about Brexit due to the "agreement" they've worked out with many many caveats...
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Hooray now that sensible Hugh is gone I can spew my propaganda unchallenged! VIVA ICELAND!!! Mostly I talk about the Irish border issue with the UK while refraining from becoming my usual dissident republican self. Le sigh!
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Previously in Europe, Gerald Adamson... This week we discuss the break down of the German coalition talks and the possible return to the grand coalition now on the table. Marine Le Pen gets all her bank accounts closed on her. The UK government can't count apparently. Noted murderer head of an Irish political party announces 'retirement' while Ireland may be headed for a snap election.
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Previously in Europe, Hot Water! In this episode we talk about the big and smaller incidents in the European Union government as well as the gross incompetence section and our final election section of the year, now that I've typed that a million snap elections will be called.
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Previously in Europe, an uncompromised Alex Salmond. This week we discuss the alleged return of Silvio Berlusconi, UK international development secretary's exit, Le Pen is stripped of immunity again and Alex Salmond's odd choice of home for his new talk show... Poland's independence day has some unfortunate white supremacy overtones and Catalonia is still a thing.
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Previously in Europe, French Emergencies. This week we discuss the continuing talks in Northern Ireland, the Icelandic snap election and most importantly of all Carles Puigdemont's big day out in Brussels. Pommes Frites for all!
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Previously in Europe, butter. This week we discuss the autonomy referendums in Italy along with another visit to Spain/Catalan. We discuss the Czech election too... but not before we get to France's butter shortage and whether Bridge is a sport.
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Previously in Europe, Catalonian autonomy. On today's episode we discuss this weekend's Czech elections, and last weekend's Austrian elections. We also discuss some developments around Catalonia and the tragic death of Daphne Caruana Galizia.
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Previously in Europe Nigel Farage's gravy train. This week we return to discussing the ongoing events in Catalan surrounding their independence referendum. We also discuss the upcoming Austrian election and their probable right wing coalition. There's a bunch of other stuff discussed but nothing that makes the title or this description.
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Previously in Europe, back taxes. On today's episode we discuss the Catalonian Independence referendum, it's results and aftermath. We also talk about some small things in Germany, Luxembourg, the UK, and the Netherlands who now have a government. Finally!
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Previously in Europe Monsanto. This week we spend a long time discussing the German election results and the complex job they'll have forming a new government. Having been off for a week we talk about a lot of miscellaneous EU goings on, from the return of Berlusconi to a FN member's enjoyment of couscous, we talk about it all. We end with a EU tech news section for the first time in a while...
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Previously in Europe, Donald Tusk's Job. On today's episode we covered Catalonia & the State of EU speech as well as Norway, Germany and Icelandic election related news. Also some troubling things George Osborne said. Also our first interview on PiE with Kristaps Andrejsons of the Soviet history podcast "The Eastern Border." We discuss modern day Russia and it's interactions with the EU member nations.
You should check out his wonderful show, The Eastern Border, here and on all good podcatchers.
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Previously in Europe, Catalonia. This week we discuss the upcoming Catalonian referendum for independence from Spain, Estonia's digital citizen system may have some bugs and Orban has a wall but he realised he no longer wants to pay for it...
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Previously in Europe, the Hungarian ambassador to the Netherlands. On today's episode we discuss the current state of Brexit negotiations, Macron's appearance and policy positions and terminally boring German federal elections. We also discuss a diplomatic incident between Hungary and the Netherlands, Romanian protests and a bridge in Crimea.
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Previously in Europe, reparations. This week on the podcast we discuss Macron's tour of Eastern Europe, with a pretty obvious macro EU political agenda... Additionally we try to discuss the bore that is the German election. We talk also about some countries that happen to be on the Black Sea - Ukraine and Romania with their completely otherwise unrelated recent news.
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Previously in Europe, Brexit negotiation conspiracies. On today's episode we discuss the upcoming German elections and how boring they are despite dieselgate. We also discuss the ideological differences amongst the Visegrad 4, the fall in migrants reaching Italy and how the British press have been dealing with some Brexit "policies."
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Previously in Europe, petrol cars. This week Hugh and Kieran discuss Greece re-entering the bond market, the partial halt to the Polish judiciary reforms. Also the German car makers may be in some sort of elaborate cartel. Finally the UK cabinet is in-fighting the second Theresa May leaves the country...
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Previously in Europe, the moral high-ground of the French left! On today's episode we discuss the ongoing situation in Poland's judicial reform and the newest developments there. We also discuss some minor pieces of news from Germany and France, like how no one in French politics seems capable of correctly using EU money. Also, the return of the, oh wait, no way, he didn't say what I think he did, did he? Yes Kieran made a false assertion about the Eurovision.
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Previously in Europe, an independent Polish Judiciary. This week we discuss some sudden developments in the Polish parliment affecting their courts. Malta legalises same sex marriage. Cyprus talks break down. The G20 happened in Hamburg with some repercussions. Some more nonsense in the UK...
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Previously in Europe, party police. On today's episode, we discuss the Albanian elections, the new Romanian PM and the still ongoing effects of the British Snap Election. We also discuss big events in Germany, an diplomatic incident between Italy and Austria and a massive anti-trust lawsuit against Google.
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Previously in Europe, the Romanian PM. This week we discuss the aftermath of the French parliamentary elections. Romania's ruling party ousts its own prime minster. The UK begins Brexit negotiations and still doesn't really have a government...
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Previously in Europe, the French socialist party! On today's episode we discuss the aftermath of the UK election as well as major foreign policy events happening mostly in Middle and Eastern Europe. Also we discuss Leo Varadkar, the new Taoiseach, yup that's how you spell. Irish orthography rules.
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Previously in Europe, a Tory majority. Today's episode is an election special dealing with the big votes in Europe. Mainly the UK election results, which are very interesting.
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Previously in Europe, climate change. This week we discuss the ongoing developments in French politics from Macron's dealings with foreign leaders to the Parliamentary elections. We also discuss the tightening race in the UK parliament elections.
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Previously in Europe, Hugh. Just a quick solo episode due to some technical difficulties where we talk about some of the bigger events of the week, including the attack in Manchester, Greek bailout talks, British and German elections as well as France, Lithuania & Portugal.
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Previously in Europe, governments. This week we discuss the array of governments around Europe facing issues. The Dutch have yet to form a coalition since their elections, Irish Taoiseach announces stepping down, Kosovo government falls apart and Austria calls snap elections for later in the year.
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Previously in Europe, The National Front. On today's episode we discuss at great length the results of the French presidential election and some of the fallout that's happening in anticipation of the legislative election in June. We also discuss the news from the UK, the new snap elections called in Malta, a misunderstanding in Czechia and an update from Romania.
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Previously in Europe, Tony Blair. This week we discuss both the elections in France and the UK. Additionally we take a quick look at some EU social legislation proposals and the ongoing Orban-v-Soros nonsense.
This week's music is The System by Davidemeny from the UK
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Previously in Europe, Hugh! Heya just a brief solo episode this week as Hugh is on a break. This episode, the projected results of the French presidential election and who's backing who, the Serbian presidential election and the surprise UK snap elections.
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Previously in Europe, a straightforward French election. This week Kieran is off so Hugh gives a very quick update cast talking about the Turkish referendum and the French presidential election.
This week's music is [zena za sva vremena1 by Milan Dincic Dinca from Bosnia and Herzegovina
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Previously in Europe, French Presidential Debates. This week we discuss the Armenian general elections and the ongoing saga that is the French presidential election. Additionally we discuss the two major terrorist incidents this week in Europe.
This week's music is [zena za sva vremena1 by Milan Dincic Dinca from Bosnia and Herzegovina
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Previously in Europe, an Ohioan Unionist Movement. This week we discuss the Bulgarian general elections in our Elections Section, should that be a hashtag... hmm. Also we discuss the fallout from the official Article 50 letter being delivered and how much Juncker likes bees. Which is cool.
This week's music is Stoned in Paradise by Mawkish from Italy
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Previously in Europe, Russia's Eurovision Entry. This week we discuss various events in the UK including the terrorist attack in Westminster. The French have a presidential election debate. Additionally we discuss developments in the Ukraine and Belarus.
This week's music is Encore by Canblaster from France
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Previously in Europe, Hugh. This week it's just me, Kieran/Ciarán (who knows with my name anymore) Hugh is on holiday so I try to cover the Dutch election results and what it all means. I also cover how the press was slightly misleading about the ECJ's ruling on workplace bans of religious symbols and the ultimately uneventful Rome Summit.
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Previously in Europe, Erdogan. This week we discuss the Dutch general elections happening next week. Additionally we look at some elections around Europe including France again! Tusk is re-elected as EU council president despite protest by the Polish government
This week's music is Roots by Tobu from Latvia
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Previously in Europe, Le Pen's immunity from prosecution... This week we discuss the many election developments in various European countries. Also Junker's white paper on the future of the EU is leaked.. Additionally a German journalist is arrested in Turkey, Sweden brings back conscription, shots are accidentally fired near president Hollande.
This week's music is Obey by Huskey from Denmark
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Previously in Europe, a debating Wilders. This week we discuss the events surrounding last weekend's Munich defence conference, American VP Micheal Pence's comments and Europe's reaction to them. Then we went on a slight fear-mongering rant and landed on mystery radiation. Also we discuss Wilder's current campaign, or lack there of, and whether there is actually a merit to what he is doing.
This week's music is Vanilla by Meluran from Denmark
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Previously in Europe, Junker. This week we discuss the events surrounding the Turkish government structure referendum, the proposed referendum in Romania on government anti-corruption policies and the Dutch general elections. Additionally various internal EU events including CETA passing the parliament and Junker's proposal for reforms to how the EU Commission works.
This week's music is My Love by Mabull from Denmark
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Previously in Europe, the_schulz. This week we discuss the EU Summit in Malta and the resulting plan to stem migration from Libya, we also discuss the ongoing protests in Romania as the Romanian Justice Minister steps down. Finally in Hugh's refusal to constantly discuss the French elections, we talk about the Liechtenstein general elections and the slight upswing in SPD support in Germany.
This week's music is Stay With Me by Valesco from Austria
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Previously in Europe, roaming charges. This week we again discuss both the French presidential election and Romanian protests over legislation seen to weaken anti-corruption attempts. Also the EU finally works out a deal to end mobile phone roaming charges within the EU.
This week's music is Movement 8 by Paul de Aragon from the UK
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Previously in Europe, Romanian prisoners. This week Romanians took to street over a possible move by the government to undo so much anti-corruption work. The likely French socialist presidential candidate is a bit of a surprise. Additionally there are some new dates for upcoming elections taking place in Bulgaria and Italy. Also Schulz lied to us!
This week's music is Emotional by Umpire from Vienna, Austria
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Previously in Europe, ambiguous Brexit. This week the UK PM gave the first hints at negotiation goals for the talks to leave the EU. The EU parliament has a new president as the product of an unusual alliance. Additionally there are some new dates for upcoming elections taking place. Also Manuel Valls was slapped in the face while campaigning...
This week's music is Rapture by StiickzZ from Germany
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Previously in Europe, quiet on the eastern front. On this week's episode we discuss the new Icelandic government, the USA's warning of Russian tampering in elections and the EU parliamentary presidential elections. We also talk about Malta's rotating presidency of the EU starting and reunification talks in Cyprus and the approval Oettinger in his new commission position.
This week's music is My Love by Mabull from Denmark
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Previously in Europe, the UK ambassador to the EU. On this weeks podcast we discuss the ongoing speculation about the EU parliamentary president election and Brexit nonsense. We also take a look at the major political events scheduled for 2017!
This week's music is Bringing it all back again by Kara Kara from Ireland
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Just the last short episode so we can keep you wonderful guys up to date while we see our friends and family over the next couple of weeks. While we are doing this why not send us some feedback so we can find out what you guys want from us in the new year!
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Just the first short episode so we can keep you wonderful guys up to date while we see our friends and family over the next couple of weeks. While we are doing this why not send us some feedback so we can find out what you guys want from us in the new year!
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Just the first short episode so we can keep you wonderful guys up to date while we see our friends and family over the next couple of weeks. While we are doing this why not send us some feedback so we can find out what you guys want from us in the new year!
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Previously in Europe, Matteo Renzi. This week we record an earlier than usual episode to discuss the recent Italian constitutional referendum and the re-run of the Austrian presidential election.
This week's music is Caravan by Monory from Germany
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Previously in Europe, Hollande. On this week's episode we focused on two events shaping Europe this week, the results of the Les Republicans' primaries and who Fillon even is and who will fill the power vacuum left by Martin Schulz as the new president of the EU parliament.
This week's music is Princess of the Suburbs by Paradox from Germany
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Previously in Europe, Sarkozy. On this week's episode we talk about the conservative party primary in France. Merkel has confirmed she will run for a 4th term in Germany. Estonia has a government again and the EU parliament votes on EU defence union proposals.
This week's music is Paris by Disko DNA from Germany
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Previously in Europe, an above water Malta. On this week's episode we talk about the presidential elections in Bulgaria and Moldova and the not-so-upcoming presidential elections in France. We also talk about Slovakia's proposed migrant deal, Russia leaving the ICC and all those leaked memos flying around the place.
This week's music is Drank & Draai by DJ Superior from the Netherlands
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Previously in Europe, Estonia's government! This week we discuss the collapse of the Estonian government due to a no confidence vote. France demolishes the Calais. The UK press put on notice for it's reaction to the Brexit court ruling. We also discuss the US election of president elect Trump (as briefly as possible) and how it might affect Europe. Also EU commissioner Günther Oettinger gets in some trouble with some jokes he made about the Chinese...
This week's music is Tokyo Dinner by Bayslick from the Netherlands
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Previously in Europe, Roman Fridges! This week we discuss the Brexit court ruling, Lithuanian general elections, Icelandic general elections, and the earthquake in Italy. We also discuss the Nordic council is moving to Brussels, the Smiths non-reunion, CETA signed and Rajoy is finally in charge of Spain. Also where did all these fridges come from, someone is clearly out to get me.
This week's music is Jack Ü - Mind (KÖHL Remix) by KÖHL from Lyon, France
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Previously in Europe... this week's podcast. We're taking a week off so no podcast this week. We'll be back next Friday for a full episode!
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Previously in Europe, RT's bank accounts! This week we discuss Russia's infulence on Europe, particularly some instances of funding right wing political parties in EU countries. We spend some time talking about Wallonia, the French part of Belgium is causing problems with the EU-Canada trade deal. Also the Danish People's Party has allegedly misused EU funding, Croatia has a PM and the French conservatives had a primary debate!
This week's music is Loose Ends by CMA ft Sacred from the Netherlands
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Previously in Europe, Le Fraud! This week we discuss the recent Georgian elections, how their political parties work and operate as well as how pretty their alphabet is. We also discuss this week's brexit nonsense, how the UK, Scotland and Ireland are preparing for the fallout. Finally we touch on French campaign financing fraud, icy Franco-Russian relations, Erdogan appealing German court cases and the Hungarian press.
This week's music is Felice - Enough (feat. Enya Angel) by Umpire from Austria
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Previously in Europe, hundreds of hours of a date for Brexit. This week we discuss the failed Hungarian refugee referendum and the British conservative party conference where potential Brexit details were given. Also we touch on the continuing eventful nature of Spanish politics, the abortion debate in Poland and the mysterious Estonian elder council...
This week's music is 80s Party by Aries Beats from Germany
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Previously in Europe, hundreds of hours of Sarkozy recordings. This week we discuss the effects of regional Spanish elections have had on the nation's political deadlock along with how the socialists are angry at Sanchez. We also discuss the EU defence summit and the various reactions to the idea of increased European defence co-operation.
This week's music is Kids Grow Better Under the Sun by Anymals from France
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Previously in Europe, a nice cruise on the Danube! This week we discuss the recent the ongoing global migrant crisis and its effect on Europe. We do a general talk, but also some mentions of the recent UN migrant summit. There was a big EU summit in Bratislava, sans UK, where among other thing a potential EU army was discussed. Also Belarus had a protest about their flag, there were Russian elections in one sense of the word and more....
This week's music is Whitestick by Stelios Strong from Greece
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Previously in Europe... No Selling! This week we discuss the recent Croatian elections, the EU Mediterranean Summit in Athens and Jean-Claude Juncker's State of the Union address. We also talk about the problems with the new Roman mayor, the totally fair election in Belarus, the delayed Austrian elections and much more.
This week's music is Nostalgia Bate by dB* from Portugal
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Previously in Europe, meaningful distinctions between tax evasion and terrorism. This week we discuss further Brexit developments brought on by the G20, the British parliament going back into session and Tusk visiting London to push for some developments. We also discussed the local German elections being hyped as a rise of the far right and problems for Merkel. The EU is considering a blacklist of countries which are used for tax evasion. Additionally there's still no long term government in place in Spain.
This week's music is Marihuana by Zapatrus from Spain
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Previously in Europe, corporation tax. On this week's episode we discuss the EU commission's ruling on the €13bn unpaid tax to the Irish government. We discuss the ill-advised staged Islamic State terror attack in Prague, all the elections happening this year and next as well as the end of the burkini ban in France, net neutrality in the EU, the reactions to the Italian earthquake, Moldovan protests and Oettinger's fabulous quotes.
The music for this episode is If She Wants to Leave (She Will) by The Fisherman from Greece
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Previously in Europe, a bunker for Junker. On this week's episode we discuss among other things the positive news story aftermath surrounding the Olympics and the sudden decrease in stories highlighting the underlying problems in Rio. The burkini ban comes into effect in some southern French towns and immediately causes problems. Additionally a Danish MEP asks the European Commission if there's anywhere nuclear proof for them to go in case of an attack/meltdown
The music for this episode is Donut Dieb by Freakso from Germany
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Previously in Europe, a clean shaven Farage. On this weeks episode we discuss a string of bans on burkini's in French coastal towns and we finally get a chance to explain how the EU works, hooray!
We also talk about the stresses on Turkey's suddenly expanding prison population, the German vice-chancellor, a potential stimulus package for Italy, falling unemployment in France and some non-stories about Nigel Farage.
The music for this episode is Give Up by Monophona from Luxembourg
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Previously in Europe, news. On this week's episode we discuss some stories which made the news but are of questionable quality (Politician's holiday locations come to mind this time of year), a new potential southern alliance of EU nations and the ongoing fallout from the Turkish coup attempt.
We also discussed the worsening forest fires in both France and Portugal; violence in Europe and the media's quick reactions speculating terrorist links
The music for this episode is Belabouche from Italy
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Previously in Europe, British European Union Agencies. On this week's episode we discuss the two EU agencies in the UK and who wants them and why. Also the continuing political stalemate in Spain and Juncker's little black book of hate. We also touched on the Armenian hostage situation, the new British commissioner, a right to broadband and Kosovo's first olympics.
The music for this episode is L'air De Paris from France
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Previously in Europe, 'Renzi's gamble'! On this week's episode we discuss the upcoming Italian referendum on their government operations. Also the International Olympic Committee's decision to not ban the Russian team, but impose restrictions on who they can send. We also touched on the ongoing attempts to form a government in Spain, potential revived independence fight for Catalonia , the ongoing hostage situation in Armenia and of course a light touch of Brexit news.
The music for this episode is Ambient by Strange Day from Germany
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Previously in Europe, opposition to the Turkish government. On today's episode we discuss what has been a tragically eventful week in Europe, A hostage situation in Yerevan, Armenia, the attack in Nice on Bastille day and a lone-wolf attack on a train in Bavaria, Germany. We also discuss the founder of Kickass Torrents getting arrested in Poland, Bosnia's warning of Pokemon Go landmine issues, Croatia's upcoming snap elections, Brexit's effect on Ireland and Theresa May meeting Hollande and Merkel.
The music for this episode is Sevgilim by Mustafa Ceceli from Turkey
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Previously in Europe, cheap haircuts... On today's episode we discuss Europe after Brexit, Francois Hollande's haircuts and the surprise new British government. We also briefly discuss Ex-European Commission head taking a job at Goldman Sachs, riots in Berlin, the NATO summit in Poland and a plucky Lithuanian MEP's dream of being the leader of UKIP.
The music for this episode is Less Desire by Stefan Biniak from Germany
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Previously in Europe, a workable Spanish Parliament! On today's episode we discuss the second Spanish general election, continuing Brexit nonsense and a non story about commission president Jean-Claude Juncker. We also briefly discuss French centre-right infighting, the upcoming Austrian presidential election, Putin in Finland and a tragic shooting in Serbia.
The music for this episode is a We Should Go to France by Urban Cone from Sweden
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Previously in Europe, the United Kingdom! We spend the whole episode this week discussing Britain's referendum result to leave the EU. Awkward squabbling and backstabbing within Westminster; An increase in hate crimes being reported; and Nicola Sturgeon has a fun day out in Brussels!
The music for this episode is a remix of Ode to Joy by David Adu-Appeagyei winner of the Remix Europe competition
Feel free to send us an email at PreviouslyInEurope@gmail.com or follow us on twitter @PrevInEurope