Yet Another Value Podcast: Recent Episodes
Andrew Walker
Yet Another Value Podcast is a new podcast from Andrew Walker, the founder of yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/. We interview top investors and dive deep into stocks and companies they are currently working on and investing in. While nothing on this channel is investing advice and everyone should do their own diligence, our goal is to frequently feature edgy and actionable value and/or event driven ideas.
Matt Warder, @mfwarder on Twitter/X, is back on the podcast to discuss all things Coal, including: overall thoughts on coal at this point September 2024, vision for coal with AI, met coal, upcoming election, Peabody $BTU 13D, $CEIX $ARCH merger and more!
You can Follow Matt Warder on Twitter/X @mfwarder: https://twitter.com/mfwarder
Matt Warder's first appearance on YAVP: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DF0uGS4swLM
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Tegus
[2:31] Where we are in the overall coal market
[4:38] Coal for AI overview
[12:18] Overall supply/demand for Metallurgical "met" coal
[17:35] How does the election affect coal market
[21:31] Vision for Coal and AI, how does coal morph into an AI play
[30:26] AI arms race and building AI data centers, timeline to building this AI / Coal power play and how should folks think about new coal plants in America
[35:21] Final thoughts on AI and Coal
[38:31] Peabody $BTU 13D
[46:40] Peabody and Consol Energy / Arch Resource merger conference calls; why are management communicating this way
[49:16] Insider ownership in Coal stocks
[55:37] Other levers that could be pulled to unlock value in PRB
[59:38] How to think about met coal stocks right now and their performance
[1:03:21] $BTU corporate action ideas
[1:05:45] Comments on $CEIX $ARCH merger
Episode sponsor: Tegus
If you’ve been reading my newsletters, you know how often I rely on Tegus for my research. It’s truly revolutionized how I get up to speed on new industries and companies. Tegus has the largest transcript library in the world, with over 75% of private market transcripts. Whether you’re curious about AI, biotech, or any niche market, Tegus has the insights you need.
What sets Tegus apart is its all-in-one platform. It’s packed with expert call transcripts, management checks, panel calls, and in-depth financial data. No more jumping between different services or piecing together fragmented data. With Tegus, everything is right at your fingertips.
The best part? The insights you get are from the very people shaping the industries you’re interested in. You’ll find perspectives from insiders and executives that you simply can’t get anywhere else.
To see Tegus in action and understand why it’s my go-to resource, visit Tegus.com/value – that’s T-E-G-U-S dot com slash value. Trust me, once you try Tegus, you’ll never look back.
Welcome to the September 2024 edition of Andrew's Random Ramblings on the Yet Another Value Podcast. Once a month, Andrew will share thoughts on a few topics - this episode includes: heavy selection bias, probabilities and waiting and how people value them, and returns on fame.
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction to Andrew's Random Ramblings + Episode sponsor: Daloopa
[1:36] What are the returns for folks focused on one company, one sector
[7:25] Probabilities and terminal 0's
[12:57] Returns on fame
Today's sponsor: Daloopa
Hey there, fundamental analysts - Are you tired of the endless grind of updating financial models, scrubbing documents, and hard coding? Let’s talk about something that could transform your workflow—Daloopa.
Daloopa delivers perfect historicals for thousands of public companies. That means every KPI, operating data, financial metric, adjustment, and guidance—all at your fingertips. And here’s the best part: Daloopa updates your models in near real-time, which is especially important during earnings season, tailored to your modeling format and style.
Imagine never having to update your models again. With Daloopa, you can reclaim your time and focus on what really matters—analysis and research.
Want to learn more? Create a FREE account at Daloopa.com/YAV
Michael D. Cohen, CEO & Director of Research at MDC Financial Research, LLC, joins the podcast to provide his post-game report on $ACI / $KR case.
For more information about MDC Financial Research, please visit: https://mdcfinancial.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Tegus
[2:20] Overview: his post-game report on $ACI / $KR case + Michael's comments on the judge
[6:25] Now that the trial is over, how the case went overall in Michael's opinion
[15:14] What were the reactions from those also in the courtroom with Michael
[20:36] Joe the Grocer testimony
[25:50] Due process arguments / price checking
[31:21] Experts, who was most believable
[40:01] What Michael saw and hear regarding CNS as a buyer / confidentiality (close courtroom to the gallery)
[45:11] Closing arguments / anything else jumped out to Michael from the trial
[49:44] Possible outcomes for the case / incentives for why each side wants their side to win
[57:05] Michael's guess on the odds of a preliminary injunction coming down here / is it more fun to listen to a well-reasoned case from both sides or more a Kangaroo-court style case
[1:00:54] Hot docs / final thoughts
Episode sponsor: Tegus
If you’ve been reading my newsletters, you know how often I rely on Tegus for my research. It’s truly revolutionized how I get up to speed on new industries and companies. Tegus has the largest transcript library in the world, with over 75% of private market transcripts. Whether you’re curious about AI, biotech, or any niche market, Tegus has the insights you need.
What sets Tegus apart is its all-in-one platform. It’s packed with expert call transcripts, management checks, panel calls, and in-depth financial data. No more jumping between different services or piecing together fragmented data. With Tegus, everything is right at your fingertips.
The best part? The insights you get are from the very people shaping the industries you’re interested in. You’ll find perspectives from insiders and executives that you simply can’t get anywhere else.
To see Tegus in action and understand why it’s my go-to resource, visit Tegus.com/value – that’s T-E-G-U-S dot com slash value. Trust me, once you try Tegus, you’ll never look back.
Mitchell Scott, Founder and Portfolio Manager at Choice Equities Capital Management, joined the podcast for the second time to provide an update on his Crocs, Inc. (NASDAQ: CROX) thesis and Mitchell's thoughts on Magnite $MGNI.
For more information about Choice Equities Capital Management, please visit: https://choice-equities.com/
First appearance on $CROX: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hzYLXDJZIaE
Podcast on $MGNI with Dan Day: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=we2o8Jw7Hno
Ryan O'Connor's piece on $MGNI: https://www.crossroadscap.io/documents/trust-busting-update
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Daloopa
[1:36] Update on $CROX thesis
[4:22] How has Mitchell's views on whether $CROX is a fad changed (or not)
[7:26] Crocs' partnerships driving the brand
[10:05] Macro consumer, consumer weakness, anything of concern for $CROX / margins
[15:05] HeyDude acquisition
[21:00] What does Mitchell see that makes $CROX an alpha opportunity
[22:46] $CROX capital allocation moving forward / final thoughts on $CROX
[26:56] What is Magnite and why are value-oriented event investors on the small-cap side talking about to this company?
[30:45] What does Mitchell see that makes $MGNI an alpha opportunity
[35:06] $MGNI's Netflix and Disney deals
[38:17] Big customer wins squeeze take rates down for $MGNI?
[44:39] Why isn't $MGNI growing faster?
[47:53] Key to unlocking personalized ads on CTV streaming, is $MGNI key to this?
[52:19] $MGNI bear case / insider selling
[54:21] Google DOJ anti-trust case and how it affects $MGNI
Today's sponsor: Daloopa
Hey there, fundamental analysts - Are you tired of the endless grind of updating financial models, scrubbing documents, and hard coding? Let’s talk about something that could transform your workflow—Daloopa.
Daloopa delivers perfect historicals for thousands of public companies. That means every KPI, operating data, financial metric, adjustment, and guidance—all at your fingertips. And here’s the best part: Daloopa updates your models in near real-time, which is especially important during earnings season, tailored to your modeling format and style.
Imagine never having to update your models again. With Daloopa, you can reclaim your time and focus on what really matters—analysis and research.
Want to learn more? Create a FREE account at Daloopa.com/YAV
Conor Maguire, Founder and Editor of the Value Situations Newsletter, joins the podcast for his third appearance to share his thesis on Dowlais Group Plc (DWL), a portfolio of market leading, high-technology engineering businesses that advance the world's transition to sustainable vehicles.
For more information about Conor Maguire and Value Situations Substack: https://valuesits.substack.com/
DWL write up on Value Situations Newsletter: https://valuesits.substack.com/p/dowlais-spinning-wheels
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Tegus
[2:15] What is Dowlais Group Plc (DWL) and why are they interesting to Conor
[9:18] What is Conor seeing about Dowlais that the market is missing
[16:42] Dowlais recent history
[21:45] Trends in the auto industry
[27:43] Bidding war time from 2018
[32:29] Margin expansion
[38:03] Management and incentive structure
[49:08] Capital allocation scenarios
[53:25] Who's the buyer of Powdermet
[58:50] Cyclicality of Powdermet business?
[1:02:16] Final thoughts on Dowlais / one more question about goodwill on the balance sheet
Episode sponsor: Tegus
If you’ve been reading my newsletters, you know how often I rely on Tegus for my research. It’s truly revolutionized how I get up to speed on new industries and companies. Tegus has the largest transcript library in the world, with over 75% of private market transcripts. Whether you’re curious about AI, biotech, or any niche market, Tegus has the insights you need.
What sets Tegus apart is its all-in-one platform. It’s packed with expert call transcripts, management checks, panel calls, and in-depth financial data. No more jumping between different services or piecing together fragmented data. With Tegus, everything is right at your fingertips.
The best part? The insights you get are from the very people shaping the industries you’re interested in. You’ll find perspectives from insiders and executives that you simply can’t get anywhere else.
To see Tegus in action and understand why it’s my go-to resource, visit Tegus.com/value – that’s T-E-G-U-S dot com slash value. Trust me, once you try Tegus, you’ll never look back.
Ross Levin, Director of Research at Arbiter Partners, joins the podcast for the second time to discuss betting on French compounding legend, Vincent Bolloré: Bolloré SE and Compagnie de l'Odet.
For more information about Arbiter Partners, please visit: https://arbiterpartners.net/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Tegus
[2:36] What are Bolloré SE and Compagnie de l'Odet and why are they interesting to Ross
[12:18] Asset value / share count
[16:46] Why (in Ross' opinion) is this an alpha opportunity and why now
[23:03] Betting on compounding legend, Vincent Bolloré
[27:40] Risk of getting "Icahn'd"
[32:20] Share re-purchases / capital allocation
[39:31] French regulatory risk
[41:41] What's the path for l'Odet
[45:42] Vivendi
[50:38] Anything else that investors should be looking out for here? Follow on re: capital allocation scenarios
[54:57] Ross' quick thoughts on CCIs and France overall
Episode sponsor: Tegus
If you’ve been reading my newsletters, you know how often I rely on Tegus for my research. It’s truly revolutionized how I get up to speed on new industries and companies. Tegus has the largest transcript library in the world, with over 75% of private market transcripts. Whether you’re curious about AI, biotech, or any niche market, Tegus has the insights you need.
What sets Tegus apart is its all-in-one platform. It’s packed with expert call transcripts, management checks, panel calls, and in-depth financial data. No more jumping between different services or piecing together fragmented data. With Tegus, everything is right at your fingertips.
The best part? The insights you get are from the very people shaping the industries you’re interested in. You’ll find perspectives from insiders and executives that you simply can’t get anywhere else.
To see Tegus in action and understand why it’s my go-to resource, visit Tegus.com/value – that’s T-E-G-U-S dot com slash value. Trust me, once you try Tegus, you’ll never look back.
Mario Cibelli, Managing Partner at Marathon Partners Equity Management, LLC, joins the podcast for the fourth time to share his thesis on Remitly Global, Inc. (NASDAQ: RELY), a trusted provider of digital financial services that transcend borders.
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Tegus
[1:58] What is Remitly Global $RELY and why are they so interesting to Mario
[3:22] What is Mario seeing in $RELY that the market is missing that makes this an alpha opportunity (in Mario's opinion)
[8:08] $RELY service use case / question of fees to transfer money / bear case / crypto
[17:25] How does their customer base trust them / why is it so complex to do digital disbursement the right way?
[27:32] Digital fraud / business environment
[35:34] Bear case cont'd. / valuation
[44:48] Thoughts on Wise
[51:13] Marketing expenses
[58:56] Valuation cont'd
[1:02:33] What keeps Mario up on at night on $RELY thesis
[1:08:10] Final thoughts / additional key points investors should be aware of about $RELY, i.e., direct connections
[1:16:34] Stable coins/crypto - why not a risk? Why Mario thinks it's an accelerant?
Episode sponsor: Tegus
If you’ve been reading my newsletters, you know how often I rely on Tegus for my research. It’s truly revolutionized how I get up to speed on new industries and companies. Tegus has the largest transcript library in the world, with over 75% of private market transcripts. Whether you’re curious about AI, biotech, or any niche market, Tegus has the insights you need.
What sets Tegus apart is its all-in-one platform. It’s packed with expert call transcripts, management checks, panel calls, and in-depth financial data. No more jumping between different services or piecing together fragmented data. With Tegus, everything is right at your fingertips.
The best part? The insights you get are from the very people shaping the industries you’re interested in. You’ll find perspectives from insiders and executives that you simply can’t get anywhere else.
To see Tegus in action and understand why it’s my go-to resource, visit Tegus.com/value – that’s T-E-G-U-S dot com slash value. Trust me, once you try Tegus, you’ll never look back.
Michael D. Cohen, CEO & Director of Research at MDC Financial Research, LLC, joins the podcast to provide his halftime report on the Albertson's / Kroger's merger case.
For more information about MDC Financial Research, please visit: https://mdcfinancial.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Ycharts
[2:02] Overview of the $ACI / $KR case thus far (high level halftime report)
[5:35] Anything Michael seeing in the courtroom that you wouldn't be able to pick up unless you're there
[9:00] Market definition
[12:58] Pricing argument
[23:34] Divestiture
[32:00] Eric Winn's testimony
[36:57] C&S lack of data scientists, what does this mean
[42:04] How does the fear this will be "Haggen 2.0" frame this discussion
[45:58] Labor argument
[50:10] Politics entering the case?
[51:50] How this merger not going through could be bad for consumers
[55:15] Final thoughts or anything missed from the trial thus far
[57:36] Odds right now for the merger approved / dismissed
Today's sponsor: Ycharts
This episode is sponsored by our friends at YCharts. A typical day in the life of a financial advisor calls for back-to-back client meetings, juggling portfolio management, and the consistent desire to improve client relationships. YCharts’ report and proposal tools could be the missing piece to help you effectively handle these time-consuming tasks.
Now more than ever, clients want to hear from their advisors. And with user-friendly templates at your disposal, generating impactful client reports can be easily integrated into your everyday routine, helping you free up time and focus on what matters most: enhancing client interactions and growing AUM.
Click here to start your free YCharts trial and level up your game with YCharts: https://go.ycharts.com/yet-another-value
It's time to welcome back Chris DeMuth for his monthly state of the markets. For this August 2024 edition, Chris shares his thoughts on: election implications, anti-trust cases, Albertsons / Kroger's case, Robinhood credit card, and high-end credit cards launching travel lounges.
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Daloopa
[1:26] Chris' thoughts on markets overall for August 2024: small cap value outperformance, election risk
[3:40] Market start pricing in Trump victory, before Biden dropped out / election risk, implications
[9:51] Overview on Anti-trust cases: Albertsons / Kroger's and Capri / Tapestry
[17:45] Albertsons / Kroger's cont'd
[27:58] Costco
[32:55] Robinhood credit card
[44:06] High-end credit cards launching travel lounges
Today's sponsor: Daloopa
Hey there, fundamental analysts - Are you tired of the endless grind of updating financial models, scrubbing documents, and hard coding? Let’s talk about something that could transform your workflow—Daloopa.
Daloopa delivers perfect historicals for thousands of public companies. That means every KPI, operating data, financial metric, adjustment, and guidance—all at your fingertips. And here’s the best part: Daloopa updates your models in near real-time, which is especially important during earnings season, tailored to your modeling format and style.
Imagine never having to update your models again. With Daloopa, you can reclaim your time and focus on what really matters—analysis and research.
Want to learn more? Create a FREE account at Daloopa.com/YAV
Paul Cerro, CIO of Cedar Grove Capital Management, joins the podcast to discuss his thesis on Red Cat Holdings (NASDAQ: RCAT), a drone technology company integrating robotic hardware and software for military, government, and commercial operations.
Cedar Grove RCAT thesis: https://www.cedargrovecm.com/p/red-cat-rcat-trade-worth-up-to-200-prcntChapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Ycharts
[2:28] What is Red Cat $RCAT and why are they so interesting to Paul
[6:26] Why is $RCAT relevant in the drone market? What is unique about $RCAT drones?
[13:29] Capabilities of $RCAT drones and how much they are selling them for (to the military) / what specifically going on with $RCAT drone that US Government is using them vs. going with commercial drone
[21:21] What is the SRR Contract and why is this a big deal
[25:40] Odds that $RCAT wins this SRR contract
[30:00] Economics if $RCAT wins the contract / what margins would look like
[33:12] Valuation: market already baking in best-case scenario in terms of them winning?
[36:17] What does the company look like if they don't win the contract / how much is Paul's bet on $RCAT winning the SRR contract vs. betting on Red Cat in particular
[40:05] Are the odds in the stock price right now that they win this contract vs. what Paul thinks the odds are that they win this contract / in Paul's opinion, what he thinks the market is missing
[45:22] Is there correlation between the NATO contract and SRR contract?
[50:39] Final thoughts
Today's sponsor: Ycharts
This episode is sponsored by our friends at YCharts. A typical day in the life of a financial advisor calls for back-to-back client meetings, juggling portfolio management, and the consistent desire to improve client relationships. YCharts’ report and proposal tools could be the missing piece to help you effectively handle these time-consuming tasks.
Now more than ever, clients want to hear from their advisors. And with user-friendly templates at your disposal, generating impactful client reports can be easily integrated into your everyday routine, helping you free up time and focus on what matters most: enhancing client interactions and growing AUM.
Click here to start your free YCharts trial and level up your game with YCharts: https://go.ycharts.com/yet-another-value
Jason Stankowski (Partner and Co-Portfolio Manager) and Brian Lancaster (Partner and Co-Portfolio Manager) from Clayton Partners join the podcast to discuss their thesis on Mattr Corp. (TSX: MATR), a growth-oriented, global materials technology company broadly serving critical infrastructure markets, including transportation, communication, water management, energy and electrification.
For more information about Clayton Partners, please visit: https://www.claytonpartners.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Tegus
[2:10] What is Mattr Corp. and why are they so interesting to Brian and Jason
[5:23] When Jason and Brian look at Mattr Corp, what they think they're seeing that the market is missing that's going to lead to alpha generation here?
[10:57] Switching to US listing and what Jason likes about IFRS better than GAAP
[15:07] $MATR.TO comparison to TerraVest
[19:34] What's the secret sauce that doesn't make $MATR.TO just another commodity business
[26:45] Auto manufacturer vertical
[29:56] Growth runway
[34:05] How much is Mattr a bet on the business vs. management team for Clayton Partners / stealth AI potential here
[43:13] Q2 Earnings and conference call
[51:30] $MATR.TO final thoughts and capital allocation strategy
Today's sponsor: Tegus
If you’ve been reading my newsletters, you know how often I rely on Tegus for my research. It’s truly revolutionized how I get up to speed on new industries and companies. Tegus has the largest transcript library in the world, with over 75% of private market transcripts. Whether you’re curious about AI, biotech, or any niche market, Tegus has the insights you need.
What sets Tegus apart is its all-in-one platform. It’s packed with expert call transcripts, management checks, panel calls, and in-depth financial data. No more jumping between different services or piecing together fragmented data. With Tegus, everything is right at your fingertips.
The best part? The insights you get are from the very people shaping the industries you’re interested in. You’ll find perspectives from insiders and executives that you simply can’t get anywhere else.
To see Tegus in action and understand why it’s my go-to resource, visit Tegus.com/value – that’s T-E-G-U-S dot com slash value. Trust me, once you try Tegus, you’ll never look back.
Bill Chen, a real estate investor and Managing Director at Rhizome Partners, returns to the podcast to discuss the performance of publicly-traded real estate market and why it's done so well since his last podcast appearance in October 2023 + pitch on Apartment Investment & Management Co. "AIMCO" (NYSE: AIV).
For more information about Rhizome Partners, please visit: http://rhizomepartners.com/
AIV pitch deck: https://docsend.com/view/4n5xq5mc58xwhx64
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Ycharts
[2:18] Capital cycle for publicly traded real estate vs. privately traded
[8:53] Five cap rate: how does it interplay with the Treasury rate?
[13:02] Publicly traded real estate company performance: have these REITs done well because of management or in spite of management
[20:11] Due diligence trips for REITs
[30:06] AIMCO $AIV - what is it and why so interesting to Bill
[36:26] What is Bill seeing that the market is missing the generates alpha in $AIV
[39:38] $AIV report card / management team
[48:02] Capital allocation / corporate governance
[53:08] Valuation
[57:31] Additional $AIV assets (besides Miami assets
[1:04:15] $AIV final thoughts
Today's sponsor: Ycharts
This episode is sponsored by our friends at YCharts, the ultimate platform you need in your toolkit for turning your financial insights into captivating client conversations.
With YCharts, each output is a powerful visual that brings your analyses to life and intuitively explains the “why” behind your strategy. Don’t get bogged down in the nitty-gritty of data and report creation — with features like PDF Reports, proposal generation, fundamental charts, and free content resources, YCharts gives you the visual edge you need to make a lasting impression and seal the deal.
Click here to start your free YCharts trial and level up your game with YCharts: https://go.ycharts.com/yet-another-value
Welcome to the August 2024 edition of Andrew's Random Ramblings on the Yet Another Value Podcast. Once a month, Andrew will share thoughts on a few topics - this episode includes: crazy start to August in the stock market, due diligence trips, and forming relationships with management teams
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction to Andrew's Random Ramblings + Episode sponsor: Tegus
[3:04] Topics: crazy start to August in the stock market, due diligence trips, forming relationships with management teams
[3:51] Crazy start to August in the stock market
[10:11] Due diligence trips
[17:30] Due diligence-ing people, seeing management teams
Today's sponsor: Tegus
If you’ve been reading my newsletters, you know how often I rely on Tegus for my research. It’s truly revolutionized how I get up to speed on new industries and companies. Tegus has the largest transcript library in the world, with over 75% of private market transcripts. Whether you’re curious about AI, biotech, or any niche market, Tegus has the insights you need.
What sets Tegus apart is its all-in-one platform. It’s packed with expert call transcripts, management checks, panel calls, and in-depth financial data. No more jumping between different services or piecing together fragmented data. With Tegus, everything is right at your fingertips.
The best part? The insights you get are from the very people shaping the industries you’re interested in. You’ll find perspectives from insiders and executives that you simply can’t get anywhere else.
To see Tegus in action and understand why it’s my go-to resource, visit Tegus.com/value – that’s T-E-G-U-S dot com slash value. Trust me, once you try Tegus, you’ll never look back.
It's time to welcome back Chris DeMuth for his monthly state of the markets. For this July 2024 edition, Chris shares his thoughts on: a few special situations (RCM, WOW, etc..) and banks.
For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Tegus
[2:17] What's on Chris' mind as we head into August
[4:27] RCM special situation
[15:45] WOW special situation
[28:26] Banks + final thoughts
Disclosure: long RCM and WOW
Today's sponsor: Tegus
If you’ve been reading my newsletters, you know how often I rely on Tegus for my research. It’s truly revolutionized how I get up to speed on new industries and companies. Tegus has the largest transcript library in the world, with over 75% of private market transcripts. Whether you’re curious about AI, biotech, or any niche market, Tegus has the insights you need.
What sets Tegus apart is its all-in-one platform. It’s packed with expert call transcripts, management checks, panel calls, and in-depth financial data. No more jumping between different services or piecing together fragmented data. With Tegus, everything is right at your fingertips.
The best part? The insights you get are from the very people shaping the industries you’re interested in. You’ll find perspectives from insiders and executives that you simply can’t get anywhere else.
To see Tegus in action and understand why it’s my go-to resource, visit Tegus.com/value – that’s T-E-G-U-S dot com slash value. Trust me, once you try Tegus, you’ll never look back.
Alex Feng and Jason Quan from Rome Capital Limited join the podcast to discuss their thesis on Samsonite International (1910.HK), a leader in the global lifestyle bag industry and the world's best-known and largest travel luggage company.
Alex Feng's write-up on Samsonite: https://alexfeng.substack.com/p/samsonite-1910-hk-another-homecoming
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Ycharts
[1:51] Alex Feng, Jason Quan and Rome Capital's backgrounds
[3:15] Overview of Samsonite and why it's interesting to Alex and Jason
[6:00] What is the average market participant missing with Samsonite
[9:25] Why is Samsonite valuation a "cheap" multiple (in Rome Capital's opinion); why Samsonite a "A" business and not a "C" business; pricing power / consumer awareness
[17:02] How important is Samsonite's warranty on their products / supply chain
[21:18] Samsonite's dual listing plan / does Alex and Jason think that simply re-listing to the US can re-rate the shares
[29:00] Instead of dual-listing, why not focus on buybacks
[33:40] What happened to the private equity bid; history with CBC back in 2007
[36:13] Wholesale partners, is that one of their competitive advantages / how much does advertising really drive demand and consumption
[39:47] Barriers to entry - what is the risk here with new luggage brands entering the market
[45:49] Final thoughts on Samsonite
Today's sponsor: Ycharts
This episode is sponsored by our friends at YCharts, the ultimate platform you need in your toolkit for turning your financial insights into captivating client conversations.
With YCharts, each output is a powerful visual that brings your analyses to life and intuitively explains the “why” behind your strategy. Don’t get bogged down in the nitty-gritty of data and report creation — with features like PDF Reports, proposal generation, fundamental charts, and free content resources, YCharts gives you the visual edge you need to make a lasting impression and seal the deal.
Click here to start your free YCharts trial and level up your game with YCharts: https://go.ycharts.com/yet-another-value
Welcome to the July 2024 edition of Andrew's Random Ramblings on the Yet Another Value Podcast. Once a month, Andrew will share thoughts on a few topics - this episode includes: small cap performance, buybacks, stock price drives narrative, CEO changes, due diligence on companies you don't like (i.e. don't like the product or service personally), alternative data and idea dinners.
Posts mentioned during pod:
On the stress of market melt ups: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/weekend-thoughts-the-stress-of-market
On stock prices driving narrative: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/weekend-thoughts-bonus-stock-pricesChapters:
[0:00] Introduction to Andrew's Random Ramblings + Episode sponsor: Tegus
[2:18] Small cap performance, buybacks
[5:15] Stock price drives narrative
[8:35] CEO changes
[10:42] Due diligence on companies you don't like (i.e. don't like the product or service personally)
[16:28] Alternative data
[18:55] Idea dinners
Today's sponsor: Tegus
If you’ve been reading my newsletters, you know how often I rely on Tegus for my research. It’s truly revolutionized how I get up to speed on new industries and companies. Tegus has the largest transcript library in the world, with over 75% of private market transcripts. Whether you’re curious about AI, biotech, or any niche market, Tegus has the insights you need.
What sets Tegus apart is its all-in-one platform. It’s packed with expert call transcripts, management checks, panel calls, and in-depth financial data. No more jumping between different services or piecing together fragmented data. With Tegus, everything is right at your fingertips.
The best part? The insights you get are from the very people shaping the industries you’re interested in. You’ll find perspectives from insiders and executives that you simply can’t get anywhere else.
To see Tegus in action and understand why it’s my go-to resource, visit Tegus.com/value – that’s T-E-G-U-S dot com slash value. Trust me, once you try Tegus, you’ll never look back.
Marc Rubinstein, Founder and Editor of the Net Interest Newsletter (link to substack below), is back on the podcast to discuss his article titled, "The Trump Trade" and deep dive on Fannie Mae $FNMA.
For more information about Marc Rubinstein, please visit: https://www.netinterest.co/
Article on Trump Trade: https://www.netinterest.co/p/the-trump-trade
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Daloopa
[1:40] Background and history of $FNMA
[17:07] Turning point in 2012 (background cont'd.)
[20:19] $FNMA privatization argument from last 10 years
[29:54] "The Trump Trade" and $FNMA
[42:03] Why didn't Trump privatize in first term / if Trump wins 2nd term, what happens if he's going to pursue a privatization plan? / what is the most likely scenario
[53:50] Final thoughts
This episode is sponsored by our friends at Daloopa
Hey there, fundamental analysts - Are you tired of the endless grind of updating financial models, scrubbing documents, and hard coding? Let’s talk about something that could transform your workflow—Daloopa.
Daloopa delivers perfect historicals for thousands of public companies. That means every KPI, operating data, financial metric, adjustment, and guidance—all at your fingertips. And here’s the best part: Daloopa updates your models in near real-time, which is especially important during earnings season, tailored to your modeling format and style.
Imagine never having to update your models again. With Daloopa, you can reclaim your time and focus on what really matters—analysis and research.
Want to learn more? Create a FREE account at Daloopa.com/YAV
John Haskell, CIO at Atla Capital Management, joins the podcast to share his thoughts on international real estate investing, emerging markets and ESR Group Limited ($1821.HK).
For more information about Atla Capital Management, please visit: https://www.atlacap.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Fundamental Edge
[2:22] International public real estate investing
[11:00] Taxation on global REITs / emerging markets
[17:54] John's most interesting market(s) right now / Vietnam overview
[21:58] ESR Group Limited thesis overview and why interesting to John
[27:12] Why has the stock not worked (since it's high in 2021) / how did John get comfortable with owning ESR
[36:06] Starwood investment / potential ESR buyout / how does John think ESR take out plays out
[45:54] ESR valuation
[55:54] Related party transactions and how do you have faith that they are done in fair value / final thoughts
Today's episode is sponsored by: Fundamental Edge
One of a kind, world-class training created for your team, your culture, your way.
Fundamental Edge was founded with a mission to train the next generation of investors and a vision to create a platform that serves the learning and development needs of investment professionals throughout their careers.Through structured lessons and proven frameworks, Fundamental Edge aims to condense years of “learning via osmosis” into a masterclass for the equity research process.
Funds looking to strengthen their internal training programs can visit fundamentedge.com/corporate-training to learn more.
It's time to welcome back Chris DeMuth for his monthly state of the markets. For this June 2024 edition, Chris shares his thoughts on: election and election trades, $LQDA, Russell Rebalance arbitrage, Burford $BUR / Security National $SNFCA, Presidential Debate and implications for investing.
For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Fundamental Edge
[1:51] What's on Chris' mind for June 2024: election and election trades
[3:24] $LQDA
[12:07] The Russell Rebalance arbitrage
[18:58] Russell Rebalance cont'd: Burford $BUR / Security National $SNFCA
[24:20] Thoughts on Presidential Debate, election and implications for investing
Today's episode is sponsored by: Fundamental Edge
One of a kind, world-class training created for your team, your culture, your way.
Fundamental Edge was founded with a mission to train the next generation of investors and a vision to create a platform that serves the learning and development needs of investment professionals throughout their careers.Through structured lessons and proven frameworks, Fundamental Edge aims to condense years of “learning via osmosis” into a masterclass for the equity research process.
Funds looking to strengthen their internal training programs can visit fundamentedge.com/corporate-training to learn more.
Ron Nussbaum from Maverick Value, joins the podcast to discuss the Capri Holdings Limited / Tapestry ($CPRI / $TPR) acquisition agreement.
You can follow Ron Nussbaum @MaverickValue on Twitter/X here: https://x.com/MaverickValue
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Ycharts
[2:05] Overview of Capri / Tapestry acquisition and why FTC suing to block the combination
[6:01] Capri fundamental value even if deal doesn't go through
[11:46] FTC's case
[20:06] FTC's raised pricing issue
[25:15] Tapestry's response and defining the market / employee side of the antitrust argument
[33:01] Why were all five Commissioners (3 dems, 2 repubs) voting to sue (and not voting on party lines)
[36:00] Industry uniqueness
[40:09] Thoughts on the case's judge
[44:14] Industry commentary
[46:32] Recut
[48:07] Room for settlement possible?
[49:02] Deal breaks tomorrow, whats the possible downside / market odds for both deal going through and downside (not going through)
[55:39] Biggest discrepancy between Ron's view on the case and the market's view on the case
[58:31] HotDocs
[1:01:15] Final thoughts / timeline on the case
Today's sponsor: Ycharts
This episode is sponsored by our friends at YCharts. Taxes—they're inevitable. But, minimizing your clients’ tax burdens is a key part of your role as a financial advisor. If you're tired of the headaches from manual calculations, spreadsheets, and juggling different software during the portfolio transition process, then we have just the YCharts update for you.
YCharts has released its new Transition Analysis Tool. With this new feature, you can automate the many time-consuming tasks typically associated with this part of the proposal process, so you can spend more time creating a solid foundation for your new client relationships.
Advisors can easily get insights into a client’s current positions, cost basis, gains/losses, and tax implications, making transitions smoother.
Clients can adjust portfolio allocations in real time, enhancing trust and collaboration with their advisors.
Automated processes that free up time for easily creating comprehensive reports, making client presentations more impactful.
Click the link to start your free YCharts trial so you can explore this new tool today: https://go.ycharts.com/yet-another-value
Zachary Buckley, Managing Partner at Buckley Capital Management, joins the podcast for the third time to share his thesis on Dentalcorp Holdings (TSX: DNTL) and why he's urging $DNTL.TO Board and Management to undertake a strategic review process.
Zack's letter to the board: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/buckley-capital-management-urges-dentalcorp-113000826.html
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Tegus
[1:43] Overview of Dentalcorp $DNTL.TO and his letter to the Board & Management
[7:15] Why'd they call off strategic alternatives in 2023 and why now is the right time
[12:23] Management changes / share restructure / US Listing / CRH comp
[17:43] Differences between Canadian and US dentistry[
20:02] Acquisition process / synergies for mom & pop dentistry practices with $DNTL / why private equity has gone after this industry aggressively
[26:16] Competitive landscape and environment
[28:58] Why hasn't the market warmed up to $DNTL.TO since it's IPO
[32:04] Capital allocation
[38:34] $DNTL.TO final thoughts on the company and his letter
[41:48] Anything else that keeps Zack up at night about $DNTL.TO?
[44:05] How big can Dentalcorp grow (when looking at amount of potential dental acquisitions)
Today's sponsor: Tegus
If you’ve been reading my newsletters, you know how often I rely on Tegus for my research. It’s truly revolutionized how I get up to speed on new industries and companies. Tegus has the largest transcript library in the world, with over 75% of private market transcripts. Whether you’re curious about AI, biotech, or any niche market, Tegus has the insights you need.
What sets Tegus apart is its all-in-one platform. It’s packed with expert call transcripts, management checks, panel calls, and in-depth financial data. No more jumping between different services or piecing together fragmented data. With Tegus, everything is right at your fingertips.
The best part? The insights you get are from the very people shaping the industries you’re interested in. You’ll find perspectives from insiders and executives that you simply can’t get anywhere else.
To see Tegus in action and understand why it’s my go-to resource, visit Tegus.com/value – that’s T-E-G-U-S dot com slash value. Trust me, once you try Tegus, you’ll never look back.
BONUS EPISODE: Keynote Q&A with Bob Robotti, Founder and CIO of Robotti & Co. - this interview was recorded live at the Planet MicroCap Showcase: VEGAS 2024. Topics covered: defining MicroCap/Small-Cap, Robotti's strategy, opportunity set for stock pickers, old economy stocks, all followed by Q&A from the audience.
For more information about Bob Robotti and Robotti & Co., please visit: https://www.robotti.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Daloopa
[2:12] How Bob defines MicroCap, Small-cap / Robotti's strategy
[6:49] Opportunity set for stock pickers
[13:04] Magnificent 7 / AI; stock pickers will win the next decade
[19:00] Old economy stocks (industrial businesses)
[24:43] Q&A from the audience
This episode is sponsored by our friends at Daloopa
Hey there, fundamental analysts - Are you tired of the endless grind of updating financial models, scrubbing documents, and hard coding? Let’s talk about something that could transform your workflow—Daloopa.
Daloopa delivers perfect historicals for thousands of public companies. That means every KPI, operating data, financial metric, adjustment, and guidance—all at your fingertips. And here’s the best part: Daloopa updates your models in near real-time, which is especially important during earnings season, tailored to your modeling format and style.
Imagine never having to update your models again. With Daloopa, you can reclaim your time and focus on what really matters—analysis and research.
Want to learn more? Create a FREE account at Daloopa.com/YAV
All information presented in all forms at the Planet MicroCap Showcase or in press releases, videos, emails, or otherwise posted on its website, stocknewsnow.com or YouTube channel (the “Outlets”) is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities. Stock News Now, SNN Inc., and the Planet MicroCap Showcase, and their representatives are not licensed brokers, broker/dealers, market makers, investment bankers, investment advisers, analysts, or underwriters.
Welcome to the June 2024 edition of Andrew's Random Ramblings on the Yet Another Value Podcast. Once a month, Andrew will share thoughts on a few topics - this episode includes: investing into franchisees, blaming IR for stock price, competitors, interest in a stock and thesis drift.
For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction to Andrew's Random Ramblings + Episode sponsor: Daloopa
[1:33] Investing into franchisees
[10:43] Blaming IR for stock price
[13:37] Killing competitors
[16:25] Interest in a stock
[18:12] Thesis drift
This episode is sponsored by our friends at Daloopa
Hey there, fundamental analysts - Are you tired of the endless grind of updating financial models, scrubbing documents, and hard coding? Let’s talk about something that could transform your workflow—Daloopa.
Daloopa delivers perfect historicals for thousands of public companies. That means every KPI, operating data, financial metric, adjustment, and guidance—all at your fingertips. And here’s the best part: Daloopa updates your models in near real-time, which is especially important during earnings season, tailored to your modeling format and style.
Imagine never having to update your models again. With Daloopa, you can reclaim your time and focus on what really matters—analysis and research.
Want to learn more? Create a FREE account at Daloopa.com/YAV
Steven Gorelik, Lead Portfolio Manager at Firebird U.S. Value Fund, joins the podcast to share his thesis on Akamai Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: AKAM), the cloud company that powers and protects life online.
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: YCharts
[1:54] Overview of Akamai Technologies and why its so interesting to Steven
[13:09] $AKAM valuation
[15:39] Cloud computing and delivery segments
[29:10] Why $AKAM now and is $AKAM being run for stockholders or being run for the employees?
[34:12] CEO insider transactions
[36:44] As a generalist investor, who isn't solely focused on cloud/security companies, why isn't $AKAM just some growthy business competing with major players? What does Steven know that specialists aren't seeing with $AKAM
[44:52] Ways $AKAM could benefit from AI, or as an AI play
[51:32] Does cloud computing, delivery and security businesses belong together?
Today's sponsor: YCharts
This episode is sponsored by our friends at YCharts. With all the various job functions that advisors are tasked with, your time is extremely valuable—and often scarce. YCharts is a platform centered around efficiency, and built with speed in mind. With an intuitive and user-friendly interface, YCharts helps save advisors 29 hours per month while uncovering better, and new, investment ideas.
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Start your free YCharts trial and see how YCharts is a one-stop shop for growing AUM with fewer hours spent on investment management: https://go.ycharts.com/yet-another-value
Yaron Naymark, Founder of 1 Main Capital, is back for the fourth time on the podcast to provide an update on his thesis for International Workplace Group plc (LSE: IWG).
For more information about Yaron Naymark and 1 Main Capital, please visit: https://www.1maincapital.com/
Yaron's original YAVP appearance talking $IWG.L: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QmVjVOoG6Sc
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Fundamental Edge
[1:47] Quick $IWG.L pitch[6:45] CEO recently sells block of shares, putting into perspective CEO's ownership
[11:43] $IWG.L inflection - ramping of management franchise
[18:11] December 2023 investor day
[21:00] $IWG.L bear case
[28:45] Franchise revenue margins / understanding IWG market
[33:11] Discrepancy between informed IWG analysts vs. speaking with building owners / impact from WeWork
[38:23] Competitive environment (post-WeWork emerging from bankruptcy)
[42:56] Why didn't IWG take out WeWork and why IWG should own WeWork
[52:10] What worries Yaron about IWG thesis (if management franchise business hits a wall)
[56:36] Enterprise and final thoughts / US Listing / Buybacks and Dividend / Catalysts for 2024-25
Today's sponsor: Fundamental Edge
You’ve probably heard about the Analyst Academy from Fundamental Edge by now. So instead of repeating the basics, let’s talk a minute about what the Academy is and is not.
The Analyst Academy is a practical course on the tools and skillsets required to succeed in the buy-side analyst seat. The instructors have experience from firms such as Maverick Capital, DE Shaw, Citadel, Balyasny and ExodusPoint.
But what is the Academy NOT?
It’s NOT a course on stock-picking. It IS a rigorous guide to learning a process.
It’s NOT a guide to pod shop investing. The Academy attracts a wide range of equity investors, from multi-managers to long only to family offices. Rather than teaching a particular style, Fundamental Edge equips learners with the essential skills required to hit the ground running and support their PM.
It’s NOT a financial modeling course. Modeling is, of course, part of the curriculum and plays a central role. But the Academy is more than that. It teaches idea generation, thesis communication and how to add value as an analyst.
To learn more and access a 10% discount code, go to fundamentedge.com/YAVP
Jacob Rubin, Portfolio Manager at Philosophy Capital, joins the podcast for the third time to share two theses: the first - Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ: CZR), the second - Gannett Co., Inc. (NYSE: GCI).
For more information about Philosophy Capital, please visit: https://www.philosophycap.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Santangel's Review
[4:20] Overview of Caesars and why its so interesting to Jacob + why focus on $CZR and not all the other gaming-type companies
[12:28] In gaming, how much does scale matter
[16:26] Fear of the consumer vs. results of the cashflow
[23:06] $CZR what happened in Q1 2024 / catalysts on the upside / capital allocation
[34:30] Digital (online gaming) ramp
[39:20] Sum of the parts / $CZR valuation
[45:07] Carl Icahn investment in $CZR
[49:01] Overview of Gannett $GCI and why it's so interesting to Jacob
[54:44] Two legs to the thesis: AI and lawsuit against Google / undervalued - what's more of the play for Jacob with $GCI?
[1:02:05] $GCI valuation / Apollo involvement
Today's episode is sponsored by: Santangel's Review
Finding the right hedge fund cap intro event isn't just about the size; it’s about the value it brings to your time. This month's sponsor, Santangel's Review, offers something unique for fund managers and allocators.
Founded in 2010, Santangel’s hosts three Cap Intro Roundtables each year - two in New York City and one at Fenway Park in Boston. These events stand out for their focus on quality over quantity, attracting some of the most prestigious endowments, foundations, and family offices worldwide.
The secret sauce: Santangel’s spotlights undiscovered talent. Managers you don't necessarily see at other industry conferences.
Attendees take part in eight one-on-one meetings, intermixed with ample networking opportunities. In an industry built on relationships, Santangel's fosters some of the most valuable connections.
Just go to Santangels.com— S-A-N-T-A-N-G-E-L-S dot com to learn more and request an invitation.
If you’re a manager or allocator who is serious about maximizing your time, you'll want to be a part of the Santangel's Roundtable. Click here: https://santangelsreview.com/
It's time to welcome back Chris DeMuth for his monthly state of the markets. For this May 2024 edition, Chris shares his thoughts on: Tapestry / Capri merger, Enhabit $EHAB, ECIP banks, $INBX deal.
For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Santangel's Review
[2:05] What's on Chris' mind as we head into the summer: M&A, Capri / Tapestry merger
[14:33] Enhabit $EHAB
[24:29] ECIP Banks
[35:44] $INBX deal
Today's episode is sponsored by: Santangel's Review
Finding the right hedge fund cap intro event isn't just about the size; it’s about the value it brings to your time. This month's sponsor, Santangel's Review, offers something unique for fund managers and allocators.
Founded in 2010, Santangel’s hosts three Cap Intro Roundtables each year - two in New York City and one at Fenway Park in Boston. These events stand out for their focus on quality over quantity, attracting some of the most prestigious endowments, foundations, and family offices worldwide.
The secret sauce: Santangel’s spotlights undiscovered talent. Managers you don't necessarily see at other industry conferences.
Attendees take part in eight one-on-one meetings, intermixed with ample networking opportunities. In an industry built on relationships, Santangel's fosters some of the most valuable connections.
Just go to Santangels.com— S-A-N-T-A-N-G-E-L-S dot com to learn more and request an invitation.
If you’re a manager or allocator who is serious about maximizing your time, you'll want to be a part of the Santangel's Roundtable. Click here: https://santangelsreview.com/
Mario Cibelli, Managing Partner at Marathon Partners Equity Management, LLC, joins the podcast for the third time to share his thesis on Xometry, Inc. (NASDAQ: XMTR), the global AI-powered marketplace that connects buyers with suppliers of custom manufacturing services.
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Fundamental Edge
[2:23] What is Xometry and why is it so interesting to Mario Cibelli
[5:42] $XMTR creating marketplace for industrial manufacturing / problem the company is solving
[19:48] Value proposition of the $XMTR network/marketplace
[24:20] Mechanics of the marketplace, customer experience, how it works
[26:26] Cutting out the middleman ($XMTR in this case) risk / are they more like Uber or Angie's List?
[35:05] "Instant Quote" / what can $XMTR evolve into
[41:15] Cyclicality
[46:47] Valuation / headwinds (and addressing them)
[58:01] Short interest and what keeps Mario up at night about $XMTR
[1:08:54] Execution risk
Today's sponsor: Fundamental Edge
You’ve probably heard about the Analyst Academy from Fundamental Edge by now. So instead of repeating the basics, let’s talk a minute about what the Academy is and is not.
The Analyst Academy is a practical course on the tools and skillsets required to succeed in the buy-side analyst seat. The instructors have experience from firms such as Maverick Capital, DE Shaw, Citadel, Balyasny and ExodusPoint.
But what is the Academy NOT?
It’s NOT a course on stock-picking. It IS a rigorous guide to learning a process.
It’s NOT a guide to pod shop investing. The Academy attracts a wide range of equity investors, from multi-managers to long only to family offices. Rather than teaching a particular style, Fundamental Edge equips learners with the essential skills required to hit the ground running and support their PM.
It’s NOT a financial modeling course. Modeling is, of course, part of the curriculum and plays a central role. But the Academy is more than that. It teaches idea generation, thesis communication and how to add value as an analyst.
To learn more and access a 10% discount code, go to fundamentedge.com/YAVP
Asif Suria, Author of "The Event-Driven Edge in Investing: Six Special Situation Strategies to Outperform the Market", joins the podcast to discuss the six special situation strategies he outlines in his book to outperform the market.You can buy your copy of Asif's new book, "The Event-Driven Edge in Investing: Six Special Situation Strategies to Outperform the Market" here: https://www.amazon.com/Event-Driven-Edge-Investing-Strategies-Outperform-ebook/dp/B0CN3PF1SW?_encoding=UTF8&dib_tag=se&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.1zuikMLb5MN1aQVWodj1ww.Nui4P_rilsWES5p1FNmoTnd5v0myqxSeQautyazGgno&qid=1715709920&sr=8-1&linkCode=sl1&tag=andrew613880e-20&linkId=376c305fd243b22988ebba35edf5ecee&language=en_US&ref_=as_li_ss_tlChapters:[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: YCharts[1:42] Overview of Asif's book, "The Event-Driven Edge in Investing: Six Special Situation Strategies to Outperform the Market"[3:33] Merger Arbitrages + examples[16:44] Insider Buying + examples[29:23] Buybacks + examples[36:45] Spinoffs + examples[46:18] Management changes + examples[55:32] SPACs + final thoughtsThis episode is sponsored by our friends at YChartsThis episode is sponsored by our friends at YCharts. Every four years, the uncertainty surrounding the next president and their policies sparks concern among investors. And with 2024 shaping up to be a rematch of the last two presidents, this uncertainty is at an all-time high.So what’s your plan to ensure your clients stay informed—and equally important, invested?Enter YCharts’ latest Election Guide—an essential resource designed to arm you with the insights needed to successfully guide clients through election season and tackle commonly asked questions head-on, speaking to themes about: Market performance across various presidencies, The viability of investments based on political affiliations, Market reactions to Trump’s election vs. Biden’s election. Grab your copy with the link in the show notes to unlock exclusive access to downloadable charts and visuals that will elevate your client communication and boost your clients’ confidence in you as their advisor.Promotional Link: https://go.ycharts.com/how-do-presidential-elections-impact-the-market-guide?utm_source=partner&utm_medium=link&utm_campaign=election_guide&utm_id=yet+another+value
Enrique Abeyta, Founder/CEO of HX Research, joins the podcast to share his thesis on Talen Energy Corporation (OTCQX: TLNE), an independent power producer ("IPP") and infrastructure company committed to the energy transition.
For more information about HX Research, please visit: https://daily.hxresearch.net/
Enrique's write-up on $TLNE: https://daily.hxresearch.net/p/an-actual-way-to-make-money-from-climate-change
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Fundamental Edge
[2:29] What is Talon Energy and why are they interesting to Enrique + quick background of Enrique Abeyta / importance of power generation
[21:46] Quirks with $TLNE thesis (re: OTC, utilities, etc...
[27:25] Coming power crisis
[31:13] $TLNE valuation
[33:04] Evaluating and addressing risks: nuclear accidents, capital allocation
[39:28] AI
[47:18] Post-bankruptcy process
[51:27] Upcoming election (risk of new administration
[56:08] Demand response and final thoughts
Today's sponsor: Fundamental Edge
You’ve probably heard about the Analyst Academy from Fundamental Edge by now. So instead of repeating the basics, let’s talk a minute about what the Academy is and is not.
The Analyst Academy is a practical course on the tools and skillsets required to succeed in the buy-side analyst seat. The instructors have experience from firms such as Maverick Capital, DE Shaw, Citadel, Balyasny and ExodusPoint.
But what is the Academy NOT?
It’s NOT a course on stock-picking. It IS a rigorous guide to learning a process.
It’s NOT a guide to pod shop investing. The Academy attracts a wide range of equity investors, from multi-managers to long only to family offices. Rather than teaching a particular style, Fundamental Edge equips learners with the essential skills required to hit the ground running and support their PM.
It’s NOT a financial modeling course. Modeling is, of course, part of the curriculum and plays a central role. But the Academy is more than that. It teaches idea generation, thesis communication and how to add value as an analyst.
To learn more and access a 10% discount code, go to fundamentedge.com/YAVP
The team that won the Pershing Square Challenge, Garrett Wallis, Jared Duda and Joseph Montgomery Ferguson, joins the podcast to discuss their winning pitch on Valvoline Inc. (NYSE: VVV).
You can find their winning pitch deck here: https://1drv.ms/b/c/b9a8675d1ef0d212/EUgO7sJJKoBBsx151i7xfvkBuTziYI94y8VF02bdym1WmA?e=21DQAcChapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Fundamental Edge
[1:49] Backgrounds on team that won the Pershing Square Challenge
[3:13] Valvoline Inc. $VVV pitch
[8:57] Store density / DIY customer share
[13:33] $VVV pitch cont'd
[28:26] AutoZone comparison / Franchise model
[35:35] Shift to EV, risks to $VVV?
[39:13] Consumer behavior / why franchisee wants to work with $VVV
[46:47] $VVV bear case / same store sales growth
[57:10] $VVV - variant view that generates alpha
Today's sponsor: Fundamental Edge
You’ve probably heard about the Analyst Academy from Fundamental Edge by now. So instead of repeating the basics, let’s talk a minute about what the Academy is and is not.
The Analyst Academy is a practical course on the tools and skillsets required to succeed in the buy-side analyst seat. The instructors have experience from firms such as Maverick Capital, DE Shaw, Citadel, Balyasny and ExodusPoint.
But what is the Academy NOT?
It’s NOT a course on stock-picking. It IS a rigorous guide to learning a process.
It’s NOT a guide to pod shop investing. The Academy attracts a wide range of equity investors, from multi-managers to long only to family offices. Rather than teaching a particular style, Fundamental Edge equips learners with the essential skills required to hit the ground running and support their PM.
It’s NOT a financial modeling course. Modeling is, of course, part of the curriculum and plays a central role. But the Academy is more than that. It teaches idea generation, thesis communication and how to add value as an analyst.
To learn more and access a 10% discount code, go to fundamentedge.com/YAVP
Welcome to the first edition of Andrew's Random Ramblings on the Yet Another Value Podcast. Once a month, Andrew will share thoughts on a few topics - this episode includes: investor conferences (since returning from Planet MicroCap Showcase: VEGAS 2024), control shareholders, energy drinks and stock advertising.
For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction to Andrew's Random Ramblings + Episode sponsor: YCharts
[3:29] Investor conferences - just returned from the Planet MicroCap Showcase: VEGAS 2024 / time for a Yet Another Value conference?
[6:28] Control shareholders
[12:24] Energy drinks
[15:24] stock advertising
This episode is sponsored by our friends at YCharts
A typical day in the life of a financial advisor calls for back-to-back client meetings, juggling portfolio management, and the consistent desire to improve client relationships. YCharts’ report and proposal tools could be the missing piece to help you effectively handle these time-consuming tasks.
Now more than ever, clients want to hear from their advisors. And with user-friendly templates at your disposal, generating impactful client reports can be easily integrated into your everyday routine, helping you free up time and focus on what matters most: enhancing client interactions and growing AUM.
Join thousands of users who rely on YCharts by leveraging personalized proposal reports to truly showcase your value add. Click the link in the show notes to start your free YCharts trial and tell them I sent you (new customers only): https://go.ycharts.com/yet-another-value
It's time to welcome back Chris DeMuth for his monthly state of the markets. For this April 2024 edition, Chris shares his thoughts on: the markets as we head into the Summer months, anti-trust, Capri-Tapestry anti-trust case, mergers blocked in greater frequency - has there been another time like this, and more!
For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Fundamental Edge
[1:57] Thoughts on markets as we finish up April and head into the Summer months
[3:47] Growth in the largest businesses in the index
[8:27] Anti-trust
[12:36] Capri-Tapestry anti-trust case
[27:38] Capri-Tapestry cont'd - market definition
[38:43] Last 6 months, 3 mergers have been challenged and blocked - ever been another time like this?
Today's sponsor: Fundamental Edge
You’ve probably heard about the Analyst Academy from Fundamental Edge by now. So instead of repeating the basics, let’s talk a minute about what the Academy is and is not.
The Analyst Academy is a practical course on the tools and skillsets required to succeed in the buy-side analyst seat. The instructors have experience from firms such as Maverick Capital, DE Shaw, Citadel, Balyasny and ExodusPoint.
But what is the Academy NOT?
It’s NOT a course on stock-picking. It IS a rigorous guide to learning a process.
It’s NOT a guide to pod shop investing. The Academy attracts a wide range of equity investors, from multi-managers to long only to family offices. Rather than teaching a particular style, Fundamental Edge equips learners with the essential skills required to hit the ground running and support their PM.
It’s NOT a financial modeling course. Modeling is, of course, part of the curriculum and plays a central role. But the Academy is more than that. It teaches idea generation, thesis communication and how to add value as an analyst.
To learn more and access a 10% discount code, go to fundamentedge.com/YAVP
Justin Lin, Founder of Best of Breed Growth Stocks, an investment newsletter, joins the podcast to discuss his thesis on Reddit, Inc. (NYSE: RDDT).
$RDDT write-up on Seeking Alpha: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4686257-reddit-julian-lins-top-conviction-idea
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: YCharts
[1:22] What is Reddit $RDDT and why is it interesting to Julian
[2:58] $RDDT bull case
[14:09] Network effects
[20:46] $RDDT bear case: when will they become profitable? What are they spending R&D on?
[30:45] Valuation
[33:48] $RDDT vs. tier 2 social media platforms (Pinterest, Twitter, SnapChat) / mismanagement
[45:27] Valuation cont'd
[56:53] $RDDT Growth strategy
[1:02:23] $RDDT's Biggest misperceptions
This episode is sponsored by our friends at YCharts
A typical day in the life of a financial advisor calls for back-to-back client meetings, juggling portfolio management, and the consistent desire to improve client relationships. YCharts’ report and proposal tools could be the missing piece to help you effectively handle these time-consuming tasks.
Now more than ever, clients want to hear from their advisors. And with user-friendly templates at your disposal, generating impactful client reports can be easily integrated into your everyday routine, helping you free up time and focus on what matters most: enhancing client interactions and growing AUM.
Join thousands of users who rely on YCharts by leveraging personalized proposal reports to truly showcase your value add. Click the link in the show notes to start your free YCharts trial and tell them I sent you (new customers only): https://go.ycharts.com/yet-another-value
Matt Turk joins the podcast to discuss his thesis on Target Hospitality Corp. (NASDAQ: TH), one of North America's largest providers of vertically integrated modular accommodations and value-added hospitality services.
Links:
https://www.bamsec.com/filing/114036124014503/4?cik=1859285
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=31s6todiuM8
Matt's YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@given2trade4
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Fundamental Edge
[1:53] What's going on with Target Hospitality $TH and why its interesting to Matt
[8:18] $TH Corporate history and why it's important / 2020 letter compared to 2024 letter from Arrow Group
[31:22] History cont'd of $TH with Arrow Group / why this situations reminds Andrew of $HRT situation
[39:11] Government contract / tail risks
[41:54] Bull case / comparables / rollups
[49:13] Additional risks
[58:50] Likelihood of closing and talking through potential buyout prices[1:04:50] Final thoughts
Today's sponsor: Fundamental Edge
You’ve probably heard about the Analyst Academy from Fundamental Edge by now. So instead of repeating the basics, let’s talk a minute about what the Academy is and is not.
The Analyst Academy is a practical course on the tools and skillsets required to succeed in the buy-side analyst seat. The instructors have experience from firms such as Maverick Capital, DE Shaw, Citadel, Balyasny and ExodusPoint.
But what is the Academy NOT?
It’s NOT a course on stock-picking. It IS a rigorous guide to learning a process.
It’s NOT a guide to pod shop investing. The Academy attracts a wide range of equity investors, from multi-managers to long only to family offices. Rather than teaching a particular style, Fundamental Edge equips learners with the essential skills required to hit the ground running and support their PM.
It’s NOT a financial modeling course. Modeling is, of course, part of the curriculum and plays a central role. But the Academy is more than that. It teaches idea generation, thesis communication and how to add value as an analyst.
To learn more and access a 10% discount code, go to fundamentedge.com/YAVP
Scott Miller, CIO of Greenhaven Road, joins the podcast to discuss his thesis on PAR Technologies (NYSE: PAR), where more than 70,000 restaurants in more than 110 countries use PAR’s restaurant point-of-sale, digital ordering, loyalty and back-office software solutions as well as industry-leading hardware and drive-thru offerings (according to the company's website).
Voss Capital write-up: https://vosscapital.substack.com/p/pars-path-to-80-redux
Greenhaven Road Q4 investor letter ($PAR mentioned): https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5498841ce4b0311b8ddc012b/t/65bd570c0ba5792db938f9a6/1706907404785/Greenhaven+Road+-+2023+Q4+FINAL_.pdf
For more information about Greenhaven Road, please visit: https://www.greenhavenroad.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: YCharts
[1:30] Overview of PAR Technologies $PAR and why Scott is excited about the idea
[4:18] What are the "haters" missing with $PAR
[7:54] Burger King customer win
[9:42] Competitive landscape
[15:20] Why $PAR more than a Point of Sale play; additional verticals
[19:04] How do they win more customers / cloud-based vs. not-cloud based point of sale matter
[25:28] $PAR recent acquisitions, execution risk / convenience stores
[33:55] Growth runway / what keeps Scott up at night about $PAR
[38:24] Lumpiness of customer wins/announcements
[41:30] Final thoughts on $PAR
This episode is sponsored by our friends at YCharts. Numbers and data are one thing, but how you communicate and scale the delivery of these insights to clients is the real challenge. The reality is, people are more inclined to invest their attention and hard-earned dollars when presented with a captivating story and a skilled storyteller. YCharts empowers you with a fully customizable report and proposal offering, allowing you to expertly guide and control the narrative during client meetings. With over 30 modules for returns, risk, allocations, exposures, and holdings breakdowns, you can effectively showcase your strategies’ strengths and your competitors’ weaknesses. To top it off, YCharts Proposals has built-in sharing capabilities so you can create and share report templates for seamless collaboration among colleagues, enabling your team to gather new assets with ease.
Check out YCharts' all-in-one solution and easily illustrate the value you bring to your clients. Click the link here to start your free YCharts trial and tell them I sent you: https://go.ycharts.com/yet-another-value
Patrick Fleury, CFO of TeraWulf Inc. (NASDAQ: WULF), joins the podcast to discuss everything you need to know about bitcoin mining.
TeraWulf owns and operates vertically integrated, environmentally clean bitcoin mining facilities in the United States.
For more information and to subscribe to TeraWulf, please visit: https://www.terawulf.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Santangel's Review
[1:34] Patrick Fleury's background / difference between oil and gas mining to bitcoin mining at TeraWulf
[6:10] Defining hash rate and hash price
[12:48] Halving
[14:10] ROI for every new bitcoin miner they build
[19:04] Cost of capital / power costs
[24:33] Economies of scale and growth for growth's sake
[28:05] ROI on a 20-year investment in bitcoin miner (when considering halvings happen every 4 years) / cooling / low cost mining strategy
[33:41] What happens if bitcoin price drops (from mining operation perspective)
[38:13] Why issuing shares and directing all cash flows to pay down debt the best use of capital?
[40:15] Valuation and where Patrick thinks bitcoin miners should trade / replacement costs on assets in the ground
[45:38] Mining facilities, power, AI plays, turning over to HFC and AI machines / power capacity, source of power
[54:43] Nautilus facility / bitcoin mining tax / expanding internationally
[100:16] Capital allocation
[1:01:36] M&A / value discrepancies / final thoughts
Today's episode is sponsored by: Santangel's Review
Finding the right hedge fund cap intro event isn't just about the size; it’s about the value it brings to your time. This month's sponsor, Santangel's Review, offers something unique for fund managers and allocators.
Founded in 2010, Santangel’s hosts three Cap Intro Roundtables each year - two in New York City and one at Fenway Park in Boston. These events stand out for their focus on quality over quantity, attracting some of the most prestigious endowments, foundations, and family offices worldwide.
The secret sauce: Santangel’s spotlights undiscovered talent. Managers you don't necessarily see at other industry conferences.
Attendees take part in eight one-on-one meetings, intermixed with ample networking opportunities. In an industry built on relationships, Santangel's fosters some of the most valuable connections.
Just go to Santangels.com— S-A-N-T-A-N-G-E-L-S dot com to learn more and request an invitation.
If you’re a manager or allocator who is serious about maximizing your time, you'll want to be a part of the Santangel's Roundtable. Click here: https://santangelsreview.com/
Devin LaSarre, Founder and Editor of the Invariant Newsletter on Substack, joins the podcast to discuss his write-up and thesis on Haypp Group (HAYPP.ST).
Quick description on Haypp Group (according to their website): The Haypp Group is spearheading the global transformation from smoking to healthier product alternatives. With origins in Scandinavia our extensive experience from pioneering markets in smoke free alternatives, as well as being a leader in the e-commerce sector, we now fully take our vision to a global scale. With eleven e-commerce brands, the Haypp group is present in seven countries where we served more than 950 000 active customers in 2023.
Haypp Group write-up: https://invariant.substack.com/p/haypp-group-nicotine-pouch-trend
For more information and to subscribe to Devin LaSarre's newsletter, Invariant, please visit: https://invariant.substack.com/
You can Follow Devin LaSarre on Twitter/X @DevinLaSarre: https://twitter.com/DevinLaSarre
Chapters:[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Santangel's Review
[1:36] What is the Haypp Group and why it's interesting to Devin and overview of the smoking alternatives industry
[6:52] Demand for nicotine and oral products (pouches, snus, dips)
[13:44] Haypp Group - investing thesis, why attractive idea to Devin
[17:44] What is differentiated about Haypp Group; why is this not the most competitive, lowest margin business
[23:21] What's a "Zyn-fluencer" and marketing challenges
[26:24] Customer acquisition costs / focus on SEO
[33:06] Haypp Group's pricing and cost structure
[41:01] Alternative smoking product consumer trends, switching up brands
[48:30] Addressing risk factors / Haypp's moat
[57:07] Insights business
[59:47] Regulation risk with selling alternative smoking products online
[1:07:23] Valuation
[1:12:32] Where alpha potentially comes from since Haypp stock's double in last 6 months
[1:18:06] Low capex
[1:21:30] Switching costs from cigarettes to alternative smoking products
Today's episode is sponsored by: Santangel's Review
Finding the right hedge fund cap intro event isn't just about the size; it’s about the value it brings to your time. This month's sponsor, Santangel's Review, offers something unique for fund managers and allocators.
Founded in 2010, Santangel’s hosts three Cap Intro Roundtables each year - two in New York City and one at Fenway Park in Boston. These events stand out for their focus on quality over quantity, attracting some of the most prestigious endowments, foundations, and family offices worldwide.
The secret sauce: Santangel’s spotlights undiscovered talent. Managers you don't necessarily see at other industry conferences.
Attendees take part in eight one-on-one meetings, intermixed with ample networking opportunities. In an industry built on relationships, Santangel's fosters some of the most valuable connections.
Just go to Santangels.com— S-A-N-T-A-N-G-E-L-S dot com to learn more and request an invitation.
If you’re a manager or allocator who is serious about maximizing your time, you'll want to be a part of the Santangel's Roundtable. Click here: https://santangelsreview.com/
It's time to welcome back Chris DeMuth for his monthly state of the markets. For this March 2024 edition, Chris shares his thoughts on meme stocks being back in vogue, $DJT, is speculation back in the market right now, small caps due for some revenge, crypto, bitcoin halving and SBF sentencing.
For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Santangel's Review
[2:14] Chris' high level thoughts as we conclude March 2024
[3:35] Meme stocks back in vogue / $DJT
[7:31] Deeper dive on $DJT / monetizing celebrity
[14:54] Is speculation back?
[18:09] Small caps due for some revenge?
[23:40] Crypto, bitcoin halving, performance since launch of ETFs
[32:06] SBF sentencing
Today's episode is sponsored by: Santangel's Review
Finding the right hedge fund cap intro event isn't just about the size; it’s about the value it brings to your time. This month's sponsor, Santangel's Review, offers something unique for fund managers and allocators.
Founded in 2010, Santangel’s hosts three Cap Intro Roundtables each year - two in New York City and one at Fenway Park in Boston. These events stand out for their focus on quality over quantity, attracting some of the most prestigious endowments, foundations, and family offices worldwide.
The secret sauce: Santangel’s spotlights undiscovered talent. Managers you don't necessarily see at other industry conferences.
Attendees take part in eight one-on-one meetings, intermixed with ample networking opportunities. In an industry built on relationships, Santangel's fosters some of the most valuable connections.
Just go to Santangels.com— S-A-N-T-A-N-G-E-L-S dot com to learn more and request an invitation.
If you’re a manager or allocator who is serious about maximizing your time, you'll want to be a part of the Santangel's Roundtable. Click here: https://santangelsreview.com/
Judd Arnold, Lake Cornelia Research Management @CorneliaLake, joins the podcast to discuss the MiX Telematics $MIXT and Powerfleet $PWFL merger.
$PWFL / $MIXT Memo: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1eONP4_CF6UPAKXYuZiDedUt2jRimujTa/view
For more information for Lake Cornelia Research Management and Judd Arnold, you can can Follow on Twitter/X @CorneliaLake: https://twitter.com/CorneliaLake
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Tegus
[2:53] Overview of $MIXT / $PWFL
[10:18] Why $MIXT / $PWFL merger is so interesting to Judd
[21:21] Pushback on the bull case for the merger
[27:56] Switching costs / AI
[34:22] Open vs. closed systems
[37:38] Management and incentives
[48:44] Management's comments and vision post-deal
[53:58] Thoughtful pushback Judd has received on thesis
[59:20] Merger background
[1:07:26] Why Judd publishes these long notes?Today's episode is sponsored by: TegusThis episode is brought to you by Tegus, the future of investment research.From the beginning, Tegus has been committed to creating efficiencies in the research process by making it easy to access the content that investors need to get to differentiated insights. Today, they’re taking it one step further by bundling qualitative content, quantitative data, and better automation and technology together in the same platform. Instead of piecing together data from fragmented sources, just log in to Tegus to get expert research, company- and industry-specific metrics and KPIs, SEC filings, and more, all under the same license cost.You can even take your work offline with an Excel Add-in that updates almost any model with the latest financial data — keeping all your custom formatting intact.Tegus is the fastest way to learn about a public or private company and the only platform you’ll need for fundamental research.To try it free today, visit Tegus.com/value
Matt Warder, @mfwarder on Twitter/X, joins the podcast to discuss all things Coal, including: high level thoughts on coal, investing narrative from last few years, regulation, "greening" of metallurgical coal, $AMR, $HCC, upcoming election's impact on coal investment case and more!
You can Follow Matt Warder on Twitter/X @mfwarder: https://twitter.com/mfwarder
Range Global Resources Coal ETF: https://rangeetfs.com/coal
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction
[1:27] High level thoughts on Coal
[6:07] Coal's investment narrative from last few years
[12:50] "Commodities don't die down, they die up" / down cycle in thermal coal
[16:07] Biden admin on coal
[21:38] Metallurgical coal ideas
[26:17] Global cost curve for metallurgical coal "met coal" / are we mining less efficiently?
[35:41] "Greening" of metallurgical coal?
[42:53] Domestic coal plays $AMR
[48:54] $HCC / Blue Creek Mine
[57:17] Does upcoming election matter for the coal investment case
[1:00:28] $HCC $AMR valuations
[1:06:09] Final thoughts on coal
Christopher Pavese, President & Chief Investment Officer at Broyhill Asset Management, joins the podcast to discuss Avantor, Inc. (NYSE: AVTR), a leading global provider of mission-critical products and services to customers in the life sciences and advanced technology industries.
For more information about Broyhill Asset Management, please visit: https://www.broyhillasset.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Tegus
[1:35] As a generalist, how Chris and team arrived looking at healthcare + GLP-1 tangent
[9:16] Overview of Avantor, Inc. $AVTR and why it's interesting to Chris
[13:56] Laboratory Solutions (accounts for 2/3's of $AVTR revs) / how embedded is $AVTR with customer base (CDMO business)
[20:19] VWR acquisition
[23:02] Disconnect between reported numbers and large cap comparisons / understanding cyclicality in life sciences/healthcare
[32:36] Variant opinion that generates alpha in $AVTR
[37:14] Why not own $TMO or $DHR over $AVTR?
[42:06] Capital allocation and M&A
[46:22] Build vs. sell
[48:35] Recovery story: bull or base case when $AVTR shared guidance
[54:01] Return on due diligence work with $AVTR, perception as a complicated business
[1:02:04] Tail risks
[1:06:39] Final thoughts
Today's episode is sponsored by: Tegus
This episode is brought to you by Tegus, the future of investment research.
From the beginning, Tegus has been committed to creating efficiencies in the research process by making it easy to access the content that investors need to get to differentiated insights.
Today, they’re taking it one step further by bundling qualitative content, quantitative data, and better automation and technology together in the same platform. Instead of piecing together data from fragmented sources, just log in to Tegus to get expert research, company- and industry-specific metrics and KPIs, SEC filings, and more, all under the same license cost.
You can even take your work offline with an Excel Add-in that updates almost any model with the latest financial data — keeping all your custom formatting intact.
Tegus is the fastest way to learn about a public or private company and the only platform you’ll need for fundamental research.
To try it free today, visit Tegus.com/value
Derek Pilecki, CFA, Managing Member and Portfolio Manager at Gator Capital Management, joins the podcast to have a general conversation about the Financial Sector: banks, crypto and more!
For more information about Gator Capital Management, please visit: https://gatorcapital.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Tegus
[1:49] What's most interesting to Derek in Financials sector today / $NYCB / Valley and Western Alliance
[12:28] Western Alliance
[19:43] Capital One and thoughts on Discover merger
[28:36] Overall regulatory environment with banks and financials
[30:51] Election and how that affects banks
[33:26] Robinhood
[41:47] Fannie's and Freddie's
[47:50] $NYCB cont'd.
[50:32] Thoughts on buybacks based on conversations with bank CEO's
[1:01:18] Why Derek thinks banks are below average businesses
Today's episode is sponsored by: Tegus
This episode is brought to you by Tegus, the future of investment research.
From the beginning, Tegus has been committed to creating efficiencies in the research process by making it easy to access the content that investors need to get to differentiated insights.
Today, they’re taking it one step further by bundling qualitative content, quantitative data, and better automation and technology together in the same platform. Instead of piecing together data from fragmented sources, just log in to Tegus to get expert research, company- and industry-specific metrics and KPIs, SEC filings, and more, all under the same license cost.
You can even take your work offline with an Excel Add-in that updates almost any model with the latest financial data — keeping all your custom formatting intact.
Tegus is the fastest way to learn about a public or private company and the only platform you’ll need for fundamental research.
To try it free today, visit Tegus.com/value
Chris Waller, Founder and CIO at Plural Investing, joins the podcast to discuss his thesis on TerraVest Industries Inc. (TSX: TVK), a manufacturer of home heating products, propane, anhydrous ammonia (“NH3”) and natural gas liquids (“NGL”) transport vehicles and storage vessels, energy processing equipment and fiberglass storage tanks.
For more information about Plural Invest, please visit: https://www.pluralinvesting.com/
Plural Investing write up on TerraVest $TVK.TO: https://static1.squarespace.com/static/57eff176e58c621a298bfa61/t/65c1736ea99cbe30a72634d1/1707176815309/Plural+Investing+Report+on+Terravest+%282024.01.24%29.pdf
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Tegus
[1:54] What is TerraVest and why are they so interesting to Chris
[4:51] Why is TerraVest underfollowed?
[6:47] Why can their acquire at a discount and $TVK.TO's business model, overview, value proposition
[14:21] Propane tank industry / location moat
[19:44] How TerraVest pulls off the reduction in steel costs
[22:27] Why hasn't Private Equity stepped in to roll up the propane tank industry?
[25:48] How does TerraVest get labor cost down?
[29:35] Tanker and Boiler businesses / recent Highland Tanks acquisition
[35:13] Terminal value questions
[40:49] Management, insider ownership and incentives
[44:50] Valuation / Organic growth / How much accretive acquisitions to drive real performance here
[51:29] Cyclicality[54:27] Capital allocation
[57:40] $TVK.TO bear case
[1:00:46] Final thoughts
Today's episode is sponsored by: Tegus
This episode is brought to you by Tegus, the future of investment research.
From the beginning, Tegus has been committed to creating efficiencies in the research process by making it easy to access the content that investors need to get to differentiated insights.
Today, they’re taking it one step further by bundling qualitative content, quantitative data, and better automation and technology together in the same platform. Instead of piecing together data from fragmented sources, just log in to Tegus to get expert research, company- and industry-specific metrics and KPIs, SEC filings, and more, all under the same license cost.
You can even take your work offline with an Excel Add-in that updates almost any model with the latest financial data — keeping all your custom formatting intact.
Tegus is the fastest way to learn about a public or private company and the only platform you’ll need for fundamental research.
To try it free today, visit Tegus.com/value
Drew Cohen from Speedwell Research, joins the podcast to discuss his thesis on Constellation Software (TSX: CSU), who acquires, manages and builds vertical market software businesses.
For more information about Speedwell Research, please visit: https://speedwellresearch.com/
Speedwell Research profile on Constellation Software: https://speedwellresearch.com/companies/reports/constellation-software/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Tegus
[1:41] Who is Constellation Software and why are they interesting to Drew
[6:05] How $CSU.TO is scaling their business model / competing with private equity
[13:00] Reverse DCF, deploying capital, competing now with other billion dollar software businesses
[21:02] Mark Leonard - is $CSU.TO a jockey bet / capital allocation / sellers
[28:32] $CSU.TO - what takes this company out
[30:57] AI risk?
[32:52] Price increases / TransDigm comparison / competition risk
[40:08] $CSU.TO vs. parking capital at index fund / likelihood of deploying at least 50% of their cash flow over next 10-ish years
[45:07] Operating synergies with 6 verticals? Why not more spin-offs?
[47:07] Additional worry about $CSU.TO - changing incentive system
[51:58] Aside from Berkshire, what are other examples of Constellation-like culture
[54:57] Speedwell's favorite write-ups he's done recently + quick thoughts on $RH
Today's episode is sponsored by: Tegus
This episode is brought to you by Tegus, the future of investment research.
From the beginning, Tegus has been committed to creating efficiencies in the research process by making it easy to access the content that investors need to get to differentiated insights.
Today, they’re taking it one step further by bundling qualitative content, quantitative data, and better automation and technology together in the same platform. Instead of piecing together data from fragmented sources, just log in to Tegus to get expert research, company- and industry-specific metrics and KPIs, SEC filings, and more, all under the same license cost.
You can even take your work offline with an Excel Add-in that updates almost any model with the latest financial data — keeping all your custom formatting intact.
Tegus is the fastest way to learn about a public or private company and the only platform you’ll need for fundamental research.
To try it free today, visit Tegus.com/value
It's time to welcome back Chris DeMuth for his monthly state of the markets. For this February 2024 edition, Chris shares his thoughts on New ETF $BOXX, Bitcoin and crypto in general, are we in a $BTC mania and Anti-trust outlook - election proxy (using Capital One / Discover as an example).
For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Tegus
[2:09] Thoughts on New ETF $BOXX
[18:55] Bitcoin and upcoming "halving" / current thoughts on crypto in general
[30:44] Are we in a $BTC mania?
[33:15] Anti-trust outlook - election proxy? Using Capital One buying Discover as an example
[43:11] Final thoughts
Today's episode is sponsored by: Tegus
This episode is brought to you by Tegus, the future of investment research.
From the beginning, Tegus has been committed to creating efficiencies in the research process by making it easy to access the content that investors need to get to differentiated insights.
Today, they’re taking it one step further by bundling qualitative content, quantitative data, and better automation and technology together in the same platform. Instead of piecing together data from fragmented sources, just log in to Tegus to get expert research, company- and industry-specific metrics and KPIs, SEC filings, and more, all under the same license cost.
You can even take your work offline with an Excel Add-in that updates almost any model with the latest financial data — keeping all your custom formatting intact.
Tegus is the fastest way to learn about a public or private company and the only platform you’ll need for fundamental research.
To try it free today, visit Tegus.com/value
Austin Crites, CIO at Aurora Financial Strategies, joins the podcast to discuss his thesis on The Lovesac Company (NASDAQ: LOVE), the home furnishing and technology brand best known for its Sacs, The World's Most Comfortable Seat.
For more information about Aurora Financial Strategies, please visit: https://www.aurorafinancialstrategies.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Tegus
[1:35] Overview of Lovesac $LOVE and why are they so interesting to Austin
[5:44] Bear case: One product company + cheap knockoffs
[12:02] Repeat business / Crocs comparison / Reddit and TikTok Lovesac / Target customers
[21:27] Shark Ninja comparison
[26:09] Valuation / Competitive analysis (La-Z-Boy, Restoration Hardware)
[31:07] Inventory turns
[34:56] Short interest
[38:48] Management and insider ownership
[41:27] Barter revenues
[43:43] $LOVE final thoughts
Today's episode is sponsored by: Tegus
This episode is brought to you by Tegus, the future of investment research.
From the beginning, Tegus has been committed to creating efficiencies in the research process by making it easy to access the content that investors need to get to differentiated insights.
Today, they’re taking it one step further by bundling qualitative content, quantitative data, and better automation and technology together in the same platform. Instead of piecing together data from fragmented sources, just log in to Tegus to get expert research, company- and industry-specific metrics and KPIs, SEC filings, and more, all under the same license cost.
You can even take your work offline with an Excel Add-in that updates almost any model with the latest financial data — keeping all your custom formatting intact.
Tegus is the fastest way to learn about a public or private company and the only platform you’ll need for fundamental research.
To try it free today, visit Tegus.com/value
Pedro Sousa, Principal at Oxy Capital, joins the podcast to discuss his thesis on The Gym Group plc (LSE: GYM) - founded in 2007, the Gym Group is the original provider of high quality, low cost gym facilities in the UK.
For more information about Oxy Capital, please visit: https://oxycapital.com/homepage/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Fundamental Edge
[2:05] Overview of Gym Group $GYM.L and why it's interesting to Pedro
[9:09] Competitive analysis: Basic-Fit and PureGym
[18:00] Raising prices and margin expansion
[25:40] Replacement cost and margin of safety
[31:29] Discounting of membership in October 2022
[33:42] New CEO in Summer 2023
[37:29] Three-tier pricing membership
[41:14] Normalized earnings levels looks like and free cash flow
[53:18] EBITDA multiples
[56:35] Bear case on $GYM.L
[1:07:28] Final thoughts
Today's episode is sponsored by: Fundamental Edge
You’ve probably heard it’s an “apprenticeship” system, or that you’ll “learn by osmosis”? But what if there was a better way to learn the equity analyst job? Fundamental Edge is re-defining training on the buy-side. Use the code "10YAVP" for a 10% discount. Website: https://www.fundamentedge.com/
Whether you’re already in the seat or looking to break in, the Analyst Academy from Fundamental Edge offers a thorough and flexible path to developing the tools and frameworks employed by leading hedge funds. Breaking in: https://www.fundamentedge.com/breaking-in
Check out the Academy syllabus and sign up for future free content: https://fundamental-edge.ck.page/academyinfo
Evan Tindell, CIO of Bireme Capital, joins the podcast for his fourth time to discuss his thesis on British American Tobacco p.l.c. (NYSE: BTI), the company engages in the provision of tobacco and nicotine products to consumers worldwide.
For more information about Bireme Capital, please visit: https://www.biremecapital.com/
Evan's $BTI write-up in Bireme Capital's investor letter: https://www.biremecapital.com/blog/december-2023-investor-letter
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Fundamental Edge
[2:04] Overview of British American Tobacco Company and why they are interesting to Evan
[6:42] What Evan thinks his edge is with $BTI / comments on stock performance over the last few months
[11:58] Vaping, regulations and how this affects $BTI
[18:38] $BTI annual report
[25:24] Competition from non-regulated folks / legal liabilities for new $BTI products / menthol cigarette ban
[34:00] Doom-looping on cigarette industry
[38:00] $BTI's ownership stake in ITC (formerly known as India Tobacco Company)
[43:43] "Sum of the Parts" stocks[51:07] $BTI capital allocation strategy
Today's episode is sponsored by: Fundamental Edge
You’ve probably heard it’s an “apprenticeship” system, or that you’ll “learn by osmosis”? But what if there was a better way to learn the equity analyst job? Fundamental Edge is re-defining training on the buy-side. Use the code "10YAVP" for a 10% discount. Website: https://www.fundamentedge.com/
Whether you’re already in the seat or looking to break in, the Analyst Academy from Fundamental Edge offers a thorough and flexible path to developing the tools and frameworks employed by leading hedge funds. Breaking in: https://www.fundamentedge.com/breaking-in
Check out the Academy syllabus and sign up for future free content: https://fundamental-edge.ck.page/academyinfo
Alex Morris, Founder of TSOH Investment Research, returns to Yet Another Value Podcast for the fourth time to discuss his recent article, "Letting Winners Run."
For more information about Alex Morris and subscribe to his research service, TSOH Investment Research Service, please visit: https://thescienceofhitting.com/You can Follow Alex Morris on Twitter @TSOH_Investing: https://twitter.com/TSOH_Investing
"Letting Winners Run" article: https://thescienceofhitting.com/p/letting-winners-run
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense
[1:47] Letting winners run thesis
[6:23] Hindsight bias
[8:26] Cash flow considerations
[12:07] Selection bias
[14:36] Examples of the "Letting Winners Run" strategy (forever business vs. 5-year/20-year outlooks)
[18:55] How "Forever Business" in media has changed over the years
[21:46] Management
[26:07] Is there something unique about big tech
[29:08] Thesis drift + examples
[38:03] Knowing when to sell "forever business"
[41:56] "Beautiful Sunset" principle
[45:27] Dismissing banks an example of dismissing "letting winners run"
[51:06] Why "Best Ideas Funds" fall short
[53:40] Final thoughts and closing
Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense
This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.
It's time to welcome back Chris DeMuth for his monthly state of the markets. For this January 2024 edition, Chris discusses anti-trust, Spirit decision, US Steel - Nippon, banks and $LQDA.
For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense
[1:53] Anti-trust + Spirit decision
[9:00] Judge's decision in Spirit case + how antitrust lawyers reacted before and after the decision
[15:45] Future of anti-trust and mergers
[21:32] US Steel - Nippon
[28:33] Banks
[30:32] $LQDA
Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense
This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.
Jon Hook, CFA, Senior Analyst at Voss Capital, joins the podcast to discuss his thesis on R1 RCM Inc. (NASDAQ: RCM), a leading provider of technology-driven solutions that transform the patient experience and financial performance of healthcare providers.
For more information about Voss Capital, please visit: https://www.vosscap.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense
[1:30] What is $RCM and why are they interesting to Jon Hook
[3:47] Why tax is 4-6% (vs. 2% or 20%)
[6:20] Jon Hook's background
[8:50] $RCM elevator pitch
[15:43] $RCM going concerns: addressing short reports, challenging 2022, management change
[22:36] Sutter roll-out
[27:37] Network effects / competitive landscape
[32:32] Addressing add-backs, adjusted EBITDA
[37:10] Addressing stickiness of the business
[40:53] Providence acquisition and capital allocation strategy
[48:22] Final thoughts on $RCM short report
[52:11] Coder shortage
[54:31] Optum ($RCM largest competitor)
[58:33] $RCM final thoughts
Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense
This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.
Judd Arnold, Lake Cornelia Research Management @CorneliaLake, joins the podcast to discuss the offshore drilling space, $TDW update, activism, $VAL, $RIG, $NE, Petrobas risk, macro risks, reflecting on recent positions with lessons learned and what Judd is focused on for 2024.
For more information for Lake Cornelia Research Management and Judd Arnold, you can can Follow on Twitter/X @CorneliaLake: https://twitter.com/CorneliaLake
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Fundamental Edge
[2:24] Offshore drilling space and $TDW update
[13:12] Offshore drilling space - market correction? and $VAL $RIG
[22:56] Why $VAL might not exercise options and Judd's newsletter explaining why $VAL should ($VAL ultimately did) + discussion on activism
[35:38] What's it going to take for $VAL to start working
[40:25] New build
[43:48] Petrobas risk?
[45:19] Macro risks: OPEC, Oil prices, geopolitics, US Election
[51:52] Gulf of Mexico
[55:48] What Judd is focused on; activism; reflecting on recent positions and lessons learned
Today's episode is sponsored by: Fundamental Edge
You’ve probably heard it’s an “apprenticeship” system, or that you’ll “learn by osmosis”? But what if there was a better way to learn the equity analyst job? Fundamental Edge is re-defining training on the buy-side. Use the code "10YAVP" for a 10% discount. Website: https://www.fundamentedge.com/
Whether you’re already in the seat or looking to break in, the Analyst Academy from Fundamental Edge offers a thorough and flexible path to developing the tools and frameworks employed by leading hedge funds. Breaking in: https://www.fundamentedge.com/breaking-in
Check out the Academy syllabus and sign up for future free content: https://fundamental-edge.ck.page/academyinfo
Brett Caughran, Lead Trainer and Founder of Fundamental Edge, joins the podcast to discuss Fundamental Edge, Brett's background, how pod shows think about earnings season, fundamental stories, liquidity and market efficiency, small caps, pod shops, risk management and pod shop culture.
To sign up for Fundamental Edge's Analyst Academy, use the code "10YAVP" for a 10% discount: https://www.fundamentedge.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Fundamental Edge
[1:33] Brett's background and overview of Fundamental Edge
[6:34] What do pod shops look at when they're thinking about earnings season
[15:54] Fundamental stories
[20:31] Liquidity and market efficiency, small caps
[24:58] Pod shop strategies, stress tests, blow ups
[33:53] How interest rate environment affects the pod model
[37:45] Revenge of the small caps
[43:27] Going to work at smaller startup pods vs. larger pod shops
[47:49] Risk management
[51:03] Pod shop culture
Today's episode is sponsored by: Fundamental Edge
You’ve probably heard it’s an “apprenticeship” system, or that you’ll “learn by osmosis”? But what if there was a better way to learn the equity analyst job? Fundamental Edge is re-defining training on the buy-side. Use the code "10YAVP" for a 10% discount. Website: https://www.fundamentedge.com/
Whether you’re already in the seat or looking to break in, the Analyst Academy from Fundamental Edge offers a thorough and flexible path to developing the tools and frameworks employed by leading hedge funds. Breaking in: https://www.fundamentedge.com/breaking-in
Check out the Academy syllabus and sign up for future free content: https://fundamental-edge.ck.page/academyinfo
Patrick Wolff, full-time private investor, joins to have a general discussion a wide range of topics: his background (former US Chess champion in 1992 and 1995), the right to buy stocks, domestic vs. international focus, indexing vs. single stock investing, battleground stocks, advantages investing in MicroCap stocks and closes with his thesis on Transact Technologies $TACT.
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Fundamental Edge
[2:01] Patrick Wolff's background
[7:10] The right to buy stocks
[12:37] Domestic vs. International focus; European markets
[21:04] Indexing vs. single stock investing; tax efficiency; time efficiency
[32:56] Diversification and circle of competence
[37:53] Battleground stocks
[40:19] MicroCap stocks
[47:13] $TACT Transact Technologies thesis
Today's episode is sponsored by: Fundamental Edge
You’ve probably heard it’s an “apprenticeship” system, or that you’ll “learn by osmosis”? But what if there was a better way to learn the equity analyst job? Fundamental Edge is re-defining training on the buy-side. Website: https://www.fundamentedge.com/
Whether you’re already in the seat or looking to break in, the Analyst Academy from Fundamental Edge offers a thorough and flexible path to developing the tools and frameworks employed by leading hedge funds. Breaking in: https://www.fundamentedge.com/breaking-in
Check out the Academy syllabus and sign up for future free content: https://fundamental-edge.ck.page/academyinfo
Jim Royal, Author of "Zen of Thrift Conversions", joins the podcast to provide the basics of "Thrift Conversions", what that means, as well as examples that help illuminate them.
Jim's book, "Zen of Thrift Conversions", available on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Zen-Thrift-Conversions-Hidden-Stocks/dp/B08KH3THCR?crid=1RO9I0CVP07JD&keywords=the+zen+of+thrift+conversions&qid=1704737642&sprefix=zen+of+thrift,aps,161&sr=8-1&linkCode=sl1&tag=andrew613880e-20&linkId=aa5821380d1063911549c0014b02427a&language=en_US&ref_=as_li_ss_tl
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Fundamental Edge
[1:49] The basics of "Thrift Conversions"
[8:51] Safety
[11:25] Management incentives
[15:46] How can investors participate in IPO of thrift conversions
[19:58] Needham
[23:50] Thrift Conversions in current banking environment
[27:26] Return on equities and repurchases
[35:39] Characteristics of poor de-mutualizations and thrift conversions
[39:14] Investor Activism
[45:08] Why thrift conversions sell during a given time frame and why some don't
[47:36] Worthwhile for investors to look at second step conversions (because so complicated)?
[51:00] Lightening round: why more mutuals in the Northeast than elsewhere? How much does geography matter?
[53:59] Three (3) interesting de-mutualizations to look at, according to Jim Royal
Today's episode is sponsored by: Fundamental Edge
You’ve probably heard it’s an “apprenticeship” system, or that you’ll “learn by osmosis”? But what if there was a better way to learn the equity analyst job? Fundamental Edge is re-defining training on the buy-side. Website: https://www.fundamentedge.com/
Whether you’re already in the seat or looking to break in, the Analyst Academy from Fundamental Edge offers a thorough and flexible path to developing the tools and frameworks employed by leading hedge funds. Breaking in: https://www.fundamentedge.com/breaking-in
Check out the Academy syllabus and sign up for future free content: https://fundamental-edge.ck.page/academyinfo
Adam Patinkin, CFA, Managing Partner at David Capital Partners, LLC, joins the podcast to discuss his thesis on Vistry Group PLC (LSE: VTY), UK’s leading provider of affordable mixed tenure homes.
For more information about David Capital Partners, please visit: https://davidpartners.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense
[1:28] David Capital's background and investing philosophy
[7:07] Overview and history of Vistry Group $VTY.L + David Capital's background with $VTY.L and why Vistry is interesting to Adam
[18:39] Partnerships business - what is it?
[27:04] What is unique about Countryside's business model (Vistry's competitive moat)
[36:25] Why Adam thinks that Vistry's future growth is going to unlock, despite trading flatish for last 15 or so years
[43:10] What "Mixed Tenure Project" means
[48:02] Partner pushback?
[52:40] NPC comparison
[56:17] What breaks the Vistry thesis?[1:00:55] UK housing cycle - where are we at[1:06:02] Vistry valuation + growth prospects
[1:16:25] What is the sell-side missing[1:22:38] CEO comp package and newly appointed board directors[1:25:22] Vistry exposure amongst UK funds
Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense
This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.
It's time to welcome back Chris DeMuth for his monthly state of the markets. For this December 2023 edition, Chris discusses what's on his mind at the end of the year, Merger Arb, $ROIV, $IMVT, thoughts on $SAVE, views on 2024 and lessons learned from 2023.
For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense
[1:46] Chris' thoughts, high level, for December 2023: merger arb
[2:44] Roivant $ROIV
[8:27] Immunovant, Inc. $IMVT
[13:44] Thoughts on $SAVE, antitrust, merger arb implications when government blocks M&A
[26:18] Views on 2024 and lessons learned from 2023
[36:23] CVRs
[42:55] Final thoughts
Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense
This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.
Adam Wilk, CFA, Founder and Portfolio Manager of Greystone Capital Management, LLC, joins the podcast to discuss his thesis on Sylogist (TSX: SYZ), provider of mission-critical SaaS solutions to over 2,000 public sector customers globally across the government, nonprofit, and education verticals.
For more information about Greystone Capital Management, please visit: https://www.greystonevalue.com/
Sylogist write-up in Q1 2023 Letter: https://www.greystonevalue.com/_files/ugd/47fd79_4bc7a737390344ceb68d07367503b878.pdf
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense
[1:32] Overview of Sylogist (TSX: SYZ) and why Adam finds it interesting
[9:00] $SYZ.TO strategic review and why pivoted the way they did
[15:49] How $SYZ.TO has evolved over last few years
[18:31] How $SYZ.TO management team is incentivized
[21:41] How is $SYZ.TO beating larger competitors for business / how is transitioning from "on-premises" to cloud offering creating growth? / Pricing power
[30:11] Microsoft partnership
[34:28] Focus on nonprofit and government verticals; value proposition for these target customers / biggest competitor
[38:36] Nonprofit space / Government ERPs
[42:20] $SYZ.TO earnings, specifically on EBITDA
[49:01] Thoughts on what CEO meant when he said "We're stepping on the gas for growth in 2024" on the Q3 call
[52:36] $SYZ.TO valuation and final thoughts
Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense
This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.
Kevin Mak, CFA, Founder of Creek Drive Capital and Teacher at Stanford University of a course called, Financial Trading Strategy, discusses his thesis on Sphere Entertainment Co. (NYSE: SPHR).
Link to Kevin's $SPHR thesis: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_jGx22O8NWRlb8zZZmuqMwfa-Ae3Y55o/view
Twitter: https://twitter.com/KevinLMak
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense
[1:17] Sphere Entertainment Co. $SPHR and why it's interesting to Kevin
[3:36] Kevin's views on $MSGN and why that's relevant for $SPHR
[8:56] How Kevin values $SPHR
[15:20] More important from a revenue perspective: Residencies or Daily Airing of "Postcards"
[17:13] Sustainability of the movies at $SPHR / how much better is $SPHR than a quality IMAX?
[26:35] $SPHR customer demand
[29:10] $SPHR music residency economics / logistics / creating the buzz
[38:30] $SPHR customer draw as technology improves
[40:52] Outside revenue streams (ad revenue on outside of the Sphere) / cost to create an ad for the Sphere (Billboard comp) + economics of the Sphere
[47:51] Main difference between Kevin's $SPHR analysis and sell-side analyst targets
[49:58] Corporate governance and naming rights
[52:39] Capex
[56:04] Valuing the franchise model and pushback on multiple Sphere's - how do you find the right markets for Sphere + why did London turn down the Sphere
[1:03:25] Convertible debt / $SPHR valuation
[1:08:12] $SPHR final thoughts
Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense
This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.
John Huber, Founder and Portfolio Manager at Saber Capital Management, joins the podcast today to describe the concept "Inevitable Retail Winners", characteristics of inevitability, as well as talking through many different examples that exemplify this concept. In addition, John shares his thesis on Floor & Decor (NYSE: FND).
For more information about Saber Capital Management, please visit: https://sabercapitalmgt.com/home/
Article from Base Hit Investing: https://basehitinvesting.substack.com/p/munger-podcast-thoughts-retail-stocks
YAV blog post on retail: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/cyber-monday-thoughts-part-1-retail
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense
[1:55] What is an "inevitable retail winner" and Charlie Munger's thoughts on this
[10:19] Restaurants
[12:34] Various retail companies mentioned, are they "inevitable retail winners"; characteristics of "inevitability" - using AutoZone as an example as well
[22:09] Retail management and culture
[27:33] Floor & Decor $FND: what is their moat? / customer experience / why inventory is a moat
[38:55] Pro vs. DIY customer spend / comment on ROIC on new stores / does $FND want to own their own stores
[45:14] Macro impact on $FND?
[51:14] $FND valuation
[58:20] $FND described as a "category killer"
[1:00:21] $FND risks
[1:03:36] Any difference in $FND pre vs. post IPO + mistakes management made in the past
[1:07:16] Push back on $FND thesis: recent acquisitions and "category killer"
[1:11:32] Any other retails that John thinks has a chance to be inevitable or he thinks that a lot of investors talk about in this "inevitable" way
Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense
This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.
Lionel Hutz, Editor of the Valorem Research Newsletter on Substack, joins the podcast today to provide his Spirit / JetBlue post-trial breakdown.
For more information about Valorem Research and to subscribe, please visit: https://www.valoremresearch.com/Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense
[1:44] General takeaways from Spirit / JetBlue post-trial and post-trial briefs
[7:56] DOJ's case, what citing of Philadelphia National and Baker Hughes cases as precedents means
[13:17] Harm to local markets - thoughts on this framework as it applies to the bear case
[16:04] JetBlue's "having it both ways" arguments and where Lionel thinks JetBlue scored points with their arguments
[23:21] 51 presumptive markets and how they are relevant to this case + the government's skepticism of divestitures
[33:20] How JetBlue and the government handled the expert witness, what deficiencies that JetBlue finds with the government witnesses
[39:39] Government's points regarding the hot docs
[42:40] How precedent being used to support both sides of the case
[50:03] Evidence supporting JetBlue's position and evidence supporting DOJ's position
[57:26] The fourth bear case on relevant markets
[1:03:35] Timing on ruling
[1:12:33] Legacy of the outcome for this case
Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense
This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.
Brad Hathaway, Managing Partner of Far View Capital Management, joins the podcast today to discuss what he thinks is a compelling setup at Distribution Solutions Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: DSGR), a premier multi-platform specialty distribution company providing high touch, value-added distribution solutions to the maintenance, repair & operations (MRO), the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and the industrial technologies markets.
For more information about Far View Capital Management, please visit: https://www.farviewcapitalmgmt.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense
[3:11] Quick overview of Distribution Solutions Group $DSGR and why it's interesting to Brad
[4:40] Overall $DSGR setup, starting with rights offering
[7:07] $DSGR business overview (all three businesses), direct comps, competitive sales advantage, customer retention
[19:51] $DSGR transaction (LKCM involvement) and why do all three businesses belong together?
[29:23] $DSGR thesis and LKCM's history with specialty distributors
[36:20] $DSGR valuation, what type of organic growth would $DSGR show without future acquisition, how much of the industry is still in-house, roll-up strategy multiple
[46:00] Scaling $DSGR business, capital allocation and tail risks
[57:22] Scaled specialty distributor that has not worked
[1:01:11] Path to liquidity, management and LKCM alignment
Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense
This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.
Lionel Hutz, Editor of the Valorem Research Newsletter on Substack, joins the podcast today to discuss the Liquidia vs. UTHR hearing at the Federal Circuit that took place on Monday, December 4, 2023.
Lionel's LQDA write up: https://www.valoremresearch.com/p/lqda-v-uthr-premium-update
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense
[1:35] What was the $LQDA hearing recently on Monday, December 4, 2023, and Lionel's initial thoughts on the hearing
[6:16] Arguments UTHR was drilling down on
[10:14] How Lionel thinks of the quality of UTHR's arguments
[13:56] Judge performance and thoughts on their performance during the hearing
[27:00] Question from Judge for LQDA about dissemination of abstracts / would we have this problem of dissemination if that conference was in 2023 vs 2004
[37:26] Next steps post-hearing: reversal or remanding, if remanding (sending back to the PTAB court) - what is the most likely issue, if reversal - what is the most likely reason
[49:02] Odds on outcome of the $LQDA hearing
Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense
This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.
Brian Albrecht, Chief Economist of the International Center for Law & Economics (ICLE), joins the podcast today to discuss ICLE's paper on the $24.6 billion Kroger-Albertsons transaction.
ICLE Paper on Kroger / Albertson's merger: https://laweconcenter.org/icle-on-kroger-albertsons/
White paper: https://laweconcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Kroger-Albertsons-Merger-Full-Paper.pdf
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense
[1:32] Overview of ICLE (International Center for Law & Economics) and Brian's background
[3:12] Kroger / Albertson's merger - how Brian is thinking about this potential merger
[6:55] FTC's analytical framework
[10:58] Why government hasn't brought more suits in grocery industry
[14:34] Should precedent be updated?
[24:05] Why shouldn't market shares matter?
[28:30] How have delivery services changed the market index & wrap-up on wholesale clubs, competition
[33:05] Divestitures
[39:26] Specific divestiture package - Haggen's example
[46:20] Waterbed effect - why this is or isn't an antitrust concern
[51:44] Regional power vs. local power with retail workers
[59:01] Final thoughts
Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense
This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.
Michael D. Cohen, CEO & Director of Research at MDC Financial Research, LLC, joins the podcast for the second time to share his thoughts on the JetBlue $JBLU / Spirit Airlines $SAVE merger trial now that closing arguments have been made. Known for their “Event-Driven Legal” investment-research, Michael Cohen and his team follow significant legal disputes and are closely watching the $JBLU / $SAVE case.
For more information about MDC Financial Research, please visit: https://mdcfinancial.com/
For more on the SAVE / JBLU trial, see podcast #204, Michael's first appearance: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFN_iXHdF78
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense
[1:41] Update since half-time report: overall thoughts on trial now that we have had closing arguments - $JBLU / $SAVE merger trial
[3:55] $JBLU / $SAVE merger trial closing arguments
[11:04] Feel for how Judge is likely to craft opinion on the case
[14:20] Potential additional remedies to get merger over the hurdle
[17:02] Market definition and timing of the deal (how does this affect consumers)
[23:41] Step 3: the burden of proof from the DOJ, showing there is harm to consumers
[24:32] Cont'd: timing of the deal (how does this affect consumers
[27:51] United Airlines testimony
[35:03] Commentary on Spirit's survivability if merger doesn't go through
[41:38] JetBlue's second expert witness
[43:43] Dr. Chipley's testimony
[45:54] Closing arguments cont'd: competition be preserved
[48:02] Closing arguments cont'd: balance of nationwide benefit vs. local harm
[52:28] Main divergence of opinion based on being in the courtroom
[56:52] Hot docs
[59:05] Odds of merger going through closes vs. failing vs. re-pricing
Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense
This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.
Jeremy Raper, Founder of Raper Capital, is back on Yet Another Value Podcast to discuss Bragg Gaming (NASDAQ: BRAG / TSX: BRAG), a global B2B content-driven iGaming technology provider. On November 22, 2023, Jeremy published "An Open Letter to the Chair of the Board of Bragg Gaming Group." on his website (link below), where he outlines strategic alternatives for the company. Jeremy and Andrew close out with Jeremy's take on the Spirit / JetBlue trial.
For more information about Jeremy Raper and Raper Capital, please visit: https://rapercapital.com/
Jeremy's Letter to $BRAG management: https://rapercapital.com/2023/11/22/an-open-letter-to-the-chair-of-the-board-of-bragg-gaming-group/Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense
[1:55] Jeremy's Letter to the Board of Bragg Gaming $BRAG; company/thesis background and why Jeremy wrote and sent the letter
[17:20] Who is the right buyer for $BRAG?
[24:51] $BRAG financing in September 2022
[31:14] $BRAG CEO and management performance
[37:55] $BRAG final thoughts
[38:35] Jeremy's take on Spirit / JetBlue trial
[44:13] How Spirit / JetBlue trial compares to Twitter / Elon case
[47:23] Spirit / JetBlue bear case
[50:10] How Spirit / JetBlue case affects Hawaiian Airlines and Alaskan Airlines merger
[54:11] Final thoughts
Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense
This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.
It's time to welcome back Chris DeMuth for his monthly state of the markets. For this November 2023 edition, Chris provides his take on the opacity and aggression of the FTC, how he is thinking about the Spirit trial, Amazon / iRobot deal and reflections on Charlie Munger.
For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense
[2:07] What is on Chris' mind this month: M&A, arbitrage, anti-trust, recent podcast with Lena Khan, Chair of the FTC
[7:49] How Chris is thinking about the Spirit trial, and the implications if the merger does not go through
[21:07] Spirit trial: airplane shortages and expert witnesses
[29:35] Spirit / JetBlue bear argument about hot docs
[33:47] Amazon / iRobot deal
[40:16] Final thoughts: reflections on Charlie Munger
Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense
This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.
Artem Fokin, Portfolio Manager at Caro-Kann Capital LLC, returns to the podcast to do a fun AMA, not as a guest, but putting his hosting skills to the test and interviewing YAVP host, Andrew Walker.
For more information about Caro-Kann Capital, please visit: http://caro-kann-capital.com/
Chapters:
[1:25] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense
[3:03] Idea/inspiration for launching Yet Another Value Podcast
[5:56] 5% that is not "Podcast Andrew"
[7:10] YAVP format - how Andrew got to this podcast format
[10:56] Sourcing guests
[18:07] Interview preparation process
[26:29] Interviewer inspiration and how Andrew's interview style have evolved
[30:14] Striking a balance between leading guests too much vs. letting guests go on their own paths
[32:07] What makes a stock pitch stand out? Good stock idea vs. good stock pitch
[36:55] How has being a podcast host made Andrew a better investor?
[39:37] Andrew's investment style and philosophy
[42:42] How many ideas did Andrew end up investing in post-publishing a podcast
[45:02] What Andrew has learned about building a network, a community and connecting with people from the podcast
[47:41] Three people in the world Andrew wants to have on the podcast and the funniest moment thus far
[53:28] Three companies that Andrew would like to see discussed on the podcast
[55:59] Where does Andrew want to see the podcast go
Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense
This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.
Michael D. Cohen, CEO & Director of Research at MDC Financial Research, LLC, joins the podcast for the first time to share his thoughts on the JetBlue $JBLU / Spirit Airlines $SAVE merger trial that is now underway. Known for their “Event-Driven Legal” investment-research, Michael Cohen and his team follow significant legal disputes and are closely watching the $JBLU / $SAVE case.
For more information about MDC Financial Research, please visit: https://mdcfinancial.com/
For more on the SAVE / JBLU trial, see podcast #197 with Lionel Hutz: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/lionel-hutz-breaks-down-the-jetblueChapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense
[1:38] Michael's overview of the $SAVE / $JBLU trial as the trial has commenced
[14:47] How $SAVE / $JBLU case compared to Spectrum Brands trial
[16:20] Judge for the $SAVE / $JBLU trial
[19:52] Divestitures
[22:50] Anti-competitive arguments
[26:27] Spirit "Hot Docs" (Hot Documents)
[29:02] "Flailing Firm" defense
[35:28] Spirit stock performance since the trial started
[39:41] Head of Network
[42:31] Government "Hot Docs"
[45:32] Market Definition
[49:55] Additional takeaways from $SAVE / $JBLU case - government's focus on $SAVE's business model and testimonies on the fluidity of this industry
[51:32] Odds of DOJ winning vs. $JBLU winning
[54:26] What makes Michael think that this case isn't a coin flip in $JBLU's favor
Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense
This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.
It's time to welcome back Chris DeMuth for his monthly state of the markets. For this October 2023 edition, Chris provides his take on problems and opportunities in biotech, tax loss selling, closed-end funds, big spread arbitrage, Albertson's / Kroger merger case and predictions for upcoming Liberty Day.
For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[1:22] What is on Chris' mind this month: merger arb, closed-end fund, failed biotech, Liberty Day
[3:42] How Chris is thinking about biotech companies right now
[6:24] Problems in biotech, but is there opportunities?
[10:36] Closed-end funds
[14:04] Big spread arbitrage
[22:10] Albertson's / Kroger merger case
[33:15] Predictions for Liberty Day
Today's episode is sponsored by: AlphasenseThis episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.
Jonathan Boyar, President of Boyar Research, returns to the podcast for the fourth(!!) time to discuss his thesis on Topgolf Callaway Brands (NASDAQ: MODG) and how it is growing an entire industry.
Subscribe to the Boyar Research Substack here: https://boyarresearch.substack.com/
You can Follow Boyar Research on Twitter/X here: https://twitter.com/BoyarValue
$MODG write-up: https://boyarresearch.substack.com/p/a-company-thats-growing-its-entire
Chapters:[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense
[1:42] Topgolf Callaway Brands $MODG and why its interesting
[3:57] Why $MODG is clearly a "Topgolf" story? And, what is Topgolf
[12:05] Land grab for opening new "Topgolf" or competitive stores
[15:00] What Jon thinks people are so worried about Topgolf
[18:06] Topgolf pushback: financing new stores
[22:17] Would it be better to separate Topgolf and Callaway?
[24:42] Topgolf advertising revenue stream and what is the company referring to when they say they are "maximizing economics" of the business (PEI system)
[29:30] KPIs the company tracks
[33:50] $MODG valuation
[39:04] "Toptracer" part of the business
[41:22] Pressure on $MODG stock; what keeps Jon up at night about the idea and various upside scenarios
[46:36] Final thoughts
Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense
This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.
Daye Deng, Co-Founder and Editor of the Value Punks newsletter on Substack, joins the podcast to discuss his articles that are deep dives on Japanese Trading Companies and why Warren Buffett invested in Japan.
Value Punks article on Japanese Trading Companies: https://valuepunks.substack.com/p/deep-dive-japanese-trading-companies
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense
[1:26] History of the Japanese trading companies and Warren Buffett
[6:59] Why trading so important in Japanese economy
[12:37] Why Buffett made his first investment in Japan
[22:23] Breaking down of Sogo Shosha (Japanese Trading Companies)
[26:38] Why Buffett holding his investment despite run-up
[28:21] Examples of corporate governance and capital allocation changes that Japanese trading companies specifically made to improve them
[37:54] Overview of the basket of 7 Japanese Trading Companies, and what Daye thinks is the most interesting/exciting; difference between tier one, tier two and tier three players, and how would Daye label the 5 companies Buffett invested in (Tier 1-3)
[43:16] Geopolitical reasons folks interested in Japan
[47:13] ESG in Japan
Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense
This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.
Bill Chen, a real estate investor and Managing Director at Rhizome Partners, returns to the podcast to provide his latest insights on what's happening in publicly-traded real estate market, private real estate market and literally everything real estate in between.
For more information about Rhizome Partners, please visit: http://rhizomepartners.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense
[1:38] Discrepancy between publicly-traded real estate and private market value / what's going on in REITs
[4:27] How does current Real Estate environment relate to similar historical periods
[9:26] Bill Chen's current real estate thesis
[13:58] Liquidation premium and where we are in the real estate cycle
[22:43] Public market trades below the private market - why shouldn't public market real estate trade for discount to private market?
[26:45] Real estate diversification, geographic risk and tax breaks
[38:38] Running apartments buildings net debt
[43:25] How to finance a distress cycle and capital allocation strategies during this time
[52:51] Why invest in real estate vs. (for lack of a better term) a lot of other stuff right now
[1:01:21] Why Bill Chen thinks this opportunity exists right now in publicly traded real estate
Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense
This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.
Harris Perlman, Principal at HSP Capital, joins the podcast to discuss his thesis on Seneca Foods Corporation (NASDAQ: SENEA), one of North America’s leading providers of packaged fruits and vegetables, with facilities located throughout the United States. (Note Harris' audio is not the greatest on this, but we did our best to adjust where we could.)
Harris' write-up: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1wAm1w3eEZCHCfY-e1Lzu0gvyGW7uN4KL/view
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[1:46] Overview of Seneca Foods $SENEA and why its interesting
[6:22] Asset value / LIFO accounting
[14:24] Why $SENEA isn't the ultra-commodity terrible business most people associate with canned vegetables?
[22:36] Canned vegetables industry
[24:46] $SENEA corporate history and background
[31:38] What happened with $SENEA from 2021-2023, specifically with inflation
[36:16] $SENEA understanding downside risks, specifically regarding insider control, governance, debt
[44:12] Investing in capital expenditures - expand Del Monte capacity
[46:48] How Harris thinks $SENEA thesis will play out
[48:41] Private label trend
[53:37] $SENEA competitive analysis
[57:09] Recent $SENEA financial performance
[1:00:40] Final thoughts on $SENEA
Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense
This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.
It's time to welcome back Chris DeMuth for his monthly state of the markets. For this September 2023 edition, Chris provides his take on Amazon FTC case, Scultpor Capital Management bid, monthly antitrust update, and more!
For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[1:49] What's been going on - September 2023: update on antitrust cases and valuing the deals
[8:45] Large mergers/acquisitions and how to better understand why firms choose the paths they do
[14:09] Sculptor Capital Management bid
[17:25] Best case for shareholder activism and natural corporate defense of smallness
[20:48] Amazon FTC case
[30:22] Amazon iRobot
[35:30] FTC being aggressive bringing losing cases
[38:58] Final thoughts for September 2023: oil and gas, thoughts on the space overall
Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense
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Lionel Hutz, Editor of the Lionel Hutz Newsletter on Substack, joins the podcast today to discuss the JetBlue (NASDAQ: JBLU) / Spirit (NYSE: SAVE) merger DOJ case.
Lionel's JetBlue/Spirit write up: https://lionelhutz.substack.com/p/in-the-spirit-of-competition
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[1:48] What is so interesting about the JetBlue / Spirit DOJ case
[4:18] JetBlue / Spirit merger saga - background
[11:34] Why is the "Northeast Alliance" relevant
[20:26] DOJ case - "Route Pair Analysis" / "Local Market Pairs
[27:06] Airline market / thoughts on divestitures
[32:44] DOJ argument about relevant markets
[44:03] Hurdles for DOJ to show anti-competitive effects
[47:15] Notion of "Hot Docs" and their relevance to the trial
[54:07] Judge for this case, his background and why this matters
[59:08] Consensus around JetBlue's paying a huge premium for Spirit. Why doesn't JetBlue just walk?
[1:06:34] Department of Transportation joined the DOJ to block the merger - what this means?
[1:14:12] Trial scheduled to start October 16, could there be a settlement between now and then?
Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense
This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit alpha-sense.com/fs today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.
Kyle Mowery and Mike Holt, CFA, Managing Partner / Portfolio Manager and Senior Analyst, respectively, at Grizzly Rock Capital joins the podcast today to discuss their thesis on Ferroglobe PLC (NASDAQ: GSM), a leading producer globally of silicon metal, silicon-based and manganese-based specialty alloys.
For more information about Grizzly Rock Capital, please visit: https://www.grizzlyrockcapital.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[1:47] Who is Ferroglobe PLC (NASDAQ: GSM) and why are they interesting?
[3:39] $GSM valuation
[7:52] What Grizzly Rock Capital thinks the market is misunderstanding about $GSM
[10:51] Global supply / demand curve for silicon metal in China + IRA demand
[17:51] How much of $GSM earnings come from solar currently
[20:01] Evaluating $GSM on an asset valuation basis
[23:53] Management evaluation and semi-controlling shareholder / long term vision
[29:40] Capital allocation strategy
[32:52] Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and solar demand
[35:49] Plants coming online in North America and how that affects $GSM
[38:38] Outlook on European assets
[40:56] Licensing off EV patents and maintenance capex
[44:57] How Grizzly Rock Capital looking at 2024 earnings
[47:15] Bridging the gap of Grizzly Rock Capital's 2024 expectations vs. $GSM historical performance
[53:14] $GSM final thoughts
Today's episode is sponsored by: Alphasense
This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense, the AI platform behind the world's biggest investment decisions. The right financial intelligence platform can make or break your quarter. AlphaSense is the #1 rated financial research solution by G2. With AI search technology and a library of premium content, you can stay ahead of key macroeconomic trends and accelerate your investment research efforts. AI capabilities, like Smart Synonyms and Sentiment Analysis, provide even deeper industry and company analysis. AlphaSense gives you the tools you need to provide better analysis for you and your clients. As a Yet Another Value Podcast listener, visit https://www.alpha-sense.com/solutions/financial-services/ today to beat FOMO and move faster than the market.
Dan Day, CFA, Equity Research Analyst at B. Riley Securities, joins the podcast today to discuss the digital advertising business, SSPs and his thesis on Magnite, Inc. (NASDAQ: MGNI), the world’s largest independent sell-side advertising company (according the company's website). To get in touch with Dan Day, you can reach him via email here: dday@brileyfin.com
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[1:35] What is Magnite, Inc. (NASDAQ: MGNI) and why is it interesting to Dan
[8:57] Take rate on SSP's (effectively the bear case on SSPs)
[14:53] Adtech trends since early 2021
[19:11] Brand integrity - how much is that important amongst SSPs
[20:25] $MGNI valuation upside
[23:55] Programmatic recession vs. the stocks were overvalued in 2021
[25:48] CTV - what it means and how it works; why its important to $MGNI
[29:24] Who is $MGNI working with on CTV / competitive landscape
[32:55] $MGNI bear case on programmatic advertising - why don't publishers build out SSPs themselves? How are publishers thinking about building vs. buying SSPs?
[44:25] Anything missed on the Bull or Bear case for $MGNI / stock compensation
[50:07] Google antitrust case - what is the bull case for $MGNI
[59:24] Odds that Google loses this trial and/or splits out SSP
[1:03:58] One thing that market generalists miss regarding $MGNI
[1:08:26] Channel checks on media industry
Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense
Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.
But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/
Artem Fokin, Portfolio Manager at Caro-Kann Capital LLC, returns to the podcast (for the fourth time) to discuss Burford winning the YPF case and the fundamental thesis post-trial.
For more information about Caro-Kann Capital, please visit: http://caro-kann-capital.com/
Artem's first appearance on BUR: https://youtu.be/qBuH8pyc8Y0
Artem's second appearance on BUR: https://youtu.be/OIFGrfx1O88
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[1:41] Burford won the case - quick overview of the case and how we arrived at this final judgement
[15:15] Enforcement and collection
[28:55] Examples of collection efforts
[33:14] Timing of enforcement and potential settlement payouts
[44:02] Tax implications
[54:22] Why hasn't $BUR management answered the question about whether any of the funds they manage bought YPF?
[1:03:35] $BUR core business
[1:14:04] $BUR asset management business model / recent results / management and employee incentives
[1:28:26] $BUR valuation without YPF included
[1:39:38] ROE on the core business on a per share basis and final thoughts
Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense
Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.
But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/
Conor Maguire, Founder and Editor of the Value Situations Newsletter, joins the podcast for his second appearance to share his thesis on Marlowe plc (LSE: MRL), provider of a broad range of compliance software and services in areas which pose a high risk for businesses.
For more information about Conor Maguire and Value Situations Substack: https://valuesits.substack.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[1:41] Overview and investing thesis on Marlowe plc (LSE: MRL
[13:49] $MRL's TIC segment - what is the catalyst here
[18:11] Potential bidders for TIC segment
[25:12] Management incentives
[30:58] Marlowe $MRL.L bear case
[40:58] FCF and $MRL.L moving forward
[47:24] Risk factors / what worries Conor about $MRL.L
[53:09] How does $MRL.L thesis fit Conor's overall investing framework?
Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense
Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.
But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/
Chadd Garcia, Portfolio Manager and Senior Research Analyst at Schwartz Investment Counsel Inc. - Ave Maria Focused Fund, joins the podcast for his second appearance to share his thesis on eDreams ODIEGO (MSE - Madrid Stock Exchange: EDR), travel subscription platform and one of the largest e-commerce businesses in Europe.
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[1:43] Overview of eDreams ODIGEO $EDR.MC
[9:27] eDreams' overall vision and current valuation
[13:34] Prime model and its potential growth in European markets
[17:30] How eDreams is different from TripAdvisor / why eDreams the one to crack the membership model
[23:13] Costco comparison
[25:24] Churn rate / U.S. investor perspective on eDreams / changing disclosures
[34:07] Competitive landscape, in particular, response from Booking as eDreams grows
[38:45] Hotels initiative / breaking into the U.S. market
[43:13] Capital allocation strategy
[47:20] Final thoughts on eDreams: risks to consider / headwinds / Chadd's personal experience using eDreams platform
Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense
Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.
But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/
It's time to welcome back Chris DeMuth for his monthly state of the markets. For this August 2023 edition, Chris provides his take on the FTC in general, Horizon/Amgen case, deep dive into CVRs and, of course, the Microsoft / Activision deal.
For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[1:43] What's been going on - August 2023; starting with FTC in general
[7:12] State of the FTC, Anti-trust
[11:16] Horizon/Amgen case
[17:30] Deep dive into CVRs
[29:42] Can CVRs present a little risk adjusted alpha?
[35:29] Microsoft / Activision deal
Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense
Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.
But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/
AJ Secrist from Firstlight Management is back on the podcast today to provide an update on Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. (NYSE: LW), a key supplier of french fries to fast-food chains, following their recent quarterly update and in advance of their investor day.
Check out his first appearance on YAVP laying out his $LW thesis (December 2022): https://youtu.be/lNY8sQVttks
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[1:24] Update on Lamb Weston Holdings $LW since AJ's last appearance on YAVP in December 2022; how the stock has performed / fundamental issues
[5:44] $LW recent conference call: French fry attachment rate and why it matters / inventory destocking
[13:07] Current valuation for $LW and justifying AJ's $7 EPS thesis / key drivers of value
[20:30] Gross margins and SG&A expenses
[23:45] Expectations from the $LW investor day / should they be doing an investor day?
[31:43] Buybacks
[34:18] $LW final thoughts / bear case?
Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense
Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.
But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/
Mitchell Scott, Founder and Portfolio Manager at Choice Equities Capital Management, joined the podcast to make the case that Crocs, Inc. (NASDAQ: CROX) is not a fad.
For more information about Choice Equities Capital Management, please visit: https://choice-equities.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[1:36] What is $CROX, why is it interesting to Mitchell and $CROX growth story
[4:50] What is Jibbitz, patent protection on the product and consumer trends using the product
[8:22] $CROX valuation
[12:16] $CROX bear case and response
[16:44] Why aren't there more Crocs knock-offs
[17:40] Is $CROX just a COVID beneficiary and Crocs brand power
[22:01] Crocs core customer and fashion/age out risk
[25:04] HEYDUDE acquisition, go-forward with management's strategy around the brand, average customer of HEYDUDE shoes, knock off problem and why would one need multiple pairs of them
[34:19] How do overcome the bears $CROX worry that Crocs (and other brands $CROX owns) turns out to be a fad
[38:45] Why is $CROX the best buyer and owner of HEYDUDE?
[41:00] Endgame for $CROX / apparel line in the future?
[44:17] Final thoughts on $CROX: shifting HEYDUDE wholesale channel, worry about inventory buildup and this year's earnings
Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense
Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.
But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/
Daniel Biolsi, Head of Consumer Staples sector at Hedgeye, shares his thoughts on current state of the Consumer Staples sector in 2023.
For more information about Hedgeye, please visit: https://app.hedgeye.com/insights
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Hedgeye
[0:56] State of the Consumer Staples sector
[4:04] $COST and BJ's thesis
[8:24] Why long Albertson's $ACI + thoughts on acquisition proposed by Kroger
[21:14] $KVUE Kenvue thesis
[28:04] Hershey $HSY, international expansion, response to short report and GLP-1 drugs
[38:39] International Flavors & Fragrances $IFF negative sentiment
Today's episode is sponsored by: Hedgeye
This podcast is sponsored by Hedgeye. Hedgeye does fantastic work, and I think that shines through in the conversation we have today. If you like the conversation and are interested in learning more, please check out hedgeye at hedgeye.com
Mordechai Yavneh, Founder and Portfolio Manager at Focus Capital, returns to the podcast to discuss how the Silicon Motion Technology Corporation (NASDAQ: SIMO) / MaxLinear (NASDAQ: MXL) deal fell apart.
Focus Capital's research site (with SIMO deck): https://focuscapitaladvisers.com/research
Mordechai's December 2022 $SIMO pitch on YAVP: https://youtu.be/f--RrIG1fAQ
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[1:46] Update since Mordechai's $SIMO pitch with Andrew in December 2022; how $SIMO / $MXL fell apart
[6:49] The four reasons $MXL said they were able to back out of the deal
[13:53] Why $MXL does not really have the right to terminate the deal
[22:37] Back and forth on the necessity for $MXL having to close the deal; how the $MXL / $SIMO situation compares to Twitter case
[31:14] Likely outcome for $SIMO if they pursue arbitration; potential outcomes for $MXL
[35:33] Understanding the difference between "Specific Performance" vs "Expectation Damages" and does breaking these deals set certain precedents?
[40:03] What is the material adverse event $MXL is referring that $SIMO experienced
[45:55] $SIMO fundamentals
[53:04] What $SIMO is seeing in the 2nd half and how their business may perform going forward; Mordechai's 3 year outlook
[1:00:23] What Mordechai thinks earnings for $SIMO looks like in a mid-cycle, normalized environment
[1:07:42] Is $SIMO a seller again or $MXL offer such a big premium, that $SIMO has to take it?
Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense
Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.
But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/
Ross Levin, Director of Research at Arbiter Partners, joins the pod to discuss his thesis on Credit Agricole S.A. CCIs (Cooperative Investment Certificates).
For more information about Arbiter Partners, please visit: https://arbiterpartners.net/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[1:43] Overview of Credit Agricole S.A. and CCIs (Cooperative Investment Certificates)
[9:56] Dividend yield on these CCIs
[16:51] Value catalyst - Eureka transaction
[23:53] Credit Agricole vulnerabilities, CCI clean-up + historical examples of buyouts of these CCIs
[30:20] What does the CCI buybacks look like
[32:25] CCIs' risks / bear case
[36:46] French regional bank risk / what would happen if Credit Agricole blew up (systemic risk)
[41:58] Resources to research CCIs
[44:17] Final thoughts on Credit Agricole and CCIs
Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense
Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.
But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/
The team from Half Moon Capital, Eric DeLamarter and Brandon Carnovale, come back on the pod to discuss their thesis on Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (NASDAQ: KDP).
For more on the KDP thesis, see:
Half Moon Capital KDP Q2’23 Investment Thesis Update_8.1.23
Half Moon Capital KDP Investment Thesis_July 2023
For more information about Half Moon Capital, please visit: https://halfmooncapital.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[1:25] Half Moon Capital's Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. $KDP thesis
[5:09] Fundamental growth drivers; what market is missing on the coffee side of the business
[10:01] $KDP U.S. beverage business, brands, trends
[17:08] $KDP valuation
[24:27] Recent insider activity
[27:43] International business
[31:54] Bottling aspect of the $KDP thesis
[36:38] Bud Light PR
[38:37] $KDP inflection point; sale-leasebacks
[42:08] $KDP earnings, expectations for the year
[45:12] Update on Oxford thesis $OXM
Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense
Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.
But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/
Zack Buckley, Managing Partner at Buckley Capital Partners, joins Yet Another Value Podcast for the second time to provide an update on his Xponential Fitness, Inc. (NYSE: XPOF) thesis since he was last on the podcast and following the Fuzzy Panda short report on the company.
For more information about Buckley Capital Partners, please visit: https://buckleycapitalpartners.com/
Zack's first appearance on YAVP discussing $XPOF: https://youtu.be/listaT3Bx6Q
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[1:35] What happened to $XPOF following the short report is released
[3:57] $XPOF short report details - first allegation; Tony's first venture, Interactive Solutions
[10:20] $XPOF short report details - second allegation; LA Boxing venture
[12:16] $XPOF short report details - third allegation; 2015 incident
[14:33] CEO is a loose cannon or are these just one-offs?
[15:33] $XPOF short report details - addressing culture of sexual harassment
[19:02] $XPOF short report details - economics of the business and franchisees
[23:47] $XPOF franchisee transfer rates / understanding franchise network industry norms
[29:34] $XPOF billing practices and BBB complaints
[33:28] $XPOF financial covenants
[34:30] $XPOF fair valuation
[37:33] $XPOF capital allocation
[42:52] Upcoming $XPOF catalysts
[47:08] What Zack hopes to see at the $XPOF investor day
[48:25] Zack's $XPOF differential insights gained from talking with franchisees
[53:14] $XPOF final thoughts
Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense
Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.
But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/
It's time to welcome back Chris DeMuth for his monthly state of the markets. For this July 2023 edition, Chris provides the latest takes on the Activision / Microsoft deal following the judge's ruling, Silicon Motion $SIMO / MaxLinear $MXL deal, Liquidia $LQDA and Burford $BUR.
For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[1:42] Updated take on Activision / Microsoft deal following the judge's ruling
[16:18] Silicon Motion $SIMO / MaxLinear $MXL Deal
[28:19] Liquidia $LQDA
[33:11] Burford $BUR
Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense
Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.
But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/
Our podcast sponsor, Stream by Alphasense, connected us with Daniel Payne, Senior Fellow at the International Congress of Blockchain Legal Advisors, to discuss the stakes at play in the SEC vs. Coinbase $COIN case. International Congress of Blockchain Legal Advisors Website: https://icbla.legal/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[1:08] Daniel Payne quick background
[4:23] SEC vs. Coinbase $COIN - high level overview of the case
[8:45] What are the stakes the SEC is playing for here?
[11:11] $COIN response to the SEC
[18:09] $COIN on the regulatory uncertainty
[22:57] Ripple decision and how this impacts the $COIN case
[29:51] Congress working towards legislation of crypto and how that affects $COIN case
[32:57] $COIN's S-1 Defense
[36:43] Two allegations the SEC is leveling against $COIN
[39:55] Staking program and what the SEC is alleging about this program
[47:15] Likelihood of certain tokens becoming securities
[49:08] $COIN lingering liabilities from operating a commodities exchange without proper regulation?
[50:44] SEC argument on $COIN's internal Howey Test for allowing various tokens to trade on their platform
[53:04] SEC vs. $COIN case timing and final thoughts
Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense
Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.
But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/
Evan Tindell, CIO of Bireme Capital, joins Yet Another Value Podcast today to share his thesis on Airtel Africa Plc (LSE: AAF), a leading provider of telecommunications and mobile money services, with a presence in 14 countries in Africa, primarily in East Africa and Central and West Africa.
For more information about Bireme Capital, please visit: https://www.biremecapital.com/
Evan's Tweet thread on Airtel Africa: https://twitter.com/evantindell/status/1666503901229580291
Evan's blog post on his Airtel Africa thesis: https://www.biremecapital.com/cio-corner/airtel-africa
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[1:57] What is Airtel Africa $AAF.L and why is it interesting?
[5:55] $AAF.L mobile money business
[11:17] Spin-off IPO of mobile money business
[12:47] $AAF.L risks
[15:53] $AAF.L current valuation[20:15] Currency risk
[24:04] $AAF.L Political risk / history of nationalization / tax on mobile payments
[34:20] $AAF.L business model risk (being the T-Mobile in their markets
[37:37] Airtel Africa vs. MTN Group
[40:23] $AAF.L controlling shareholder - Bharti Airtel
[45:47] Understanding emerging market economies and price sensitivity amongst consumers
[48:56] $AAF.L product diversification risk
[55:33] $AAF.L "no one cares" valuation risk
Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense
Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.
But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/
Cove Street Capital's Jeffrey Bronchick, Principal and Portfolio Manager, and Andrew Leaf, Principal, Research Analyst, discuss their thesis on Ecovyst Inc. (NASDAQ: ECVT), a leading integrated and innovative global provider of specialty catalysts and services. Also, be sure to stick around for the last ten minutes as well to hear Jeff and Andrew's update on Viasat $VSAT.
For more information about Cove Street Capital, please visit: https://covestreetcapital.com/
Quick blurb on $VSAT: https://covestreetcapital.com/well-that-wasnt-fun/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[1:57] What is Ecovyst and why is $ECVT interesting?
[9:16] $ECVT core business
[16:36] Understanding the $ECVT risks
[26:51] $ECVT valuation
[34:29] CCMP and INEOS
[38:01] $ECVT Capital allocation strategy - M&A
[44:31] $ECVT customer contracts - pricing power on renew?
[47:09] Final thoughts on $ECVT - catalyst technologies section
[49:49] Recent news on ViaSat $VSAT
Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense
Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.
But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/
Hawkins Entrekin, Founder and Managing Principal of Warden Capital, joins Yet Another Value Podcast today to discuss his thesis on Vornado Realty Trust (NYSE: VNO), a fully-integrated equity real estate investment trust. The conversation begins with an overview on the New York City real estate market in general and transitions to better understand, why, for Hawkins, he picked $VNO over other New York office-focused REITs.
For more information about Warden Capital, please visit: https://www.wardencapital.com/
You can Follow Hawkins Entrekin on Twitter @,HawkinsEntrekin here: https://twitter.com/HawkinsEntrekin
$VNO on Hawkins' substack: https://warcap.substack.com/p/on-vornado-nyc-office-market-part
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[1:31] What is Vornado $VNO and why are they interesting
[2:32] Are the Commercial Real Estate headlines are wrong?
[8:25] Oversupply of office buildings in New York City
[19:18] New York City real estate "doom loop"
[25:09] Why $VNO over other New York office-focused REITs
[29:02] $VNO management team - thoughts on Steve Roth
[33:01] $VNO real estate portfolio
[41:02] Penn Station area[43:17] $VNO cap rates
[48:17] Cap rates on Farley and Penn Station after amenities added
[52:03] Citadel 350 Park deal
[54:39] $VNO valuation
[1:01:55] Sell-side coverage
[1:06:09] $VNO final thoughts
Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense
Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.
But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/
Sam Haskell, CIO of Colarion Partners and Editor of the 5 Points newsletter on Substack, is today's guest on the Yet Another Value Podcast. In the last few months, we've been covering all aspects of the financial sector, banks in particular, so we had Sam on today to get his thoughts on wide array of topics in this space, and what he's focused on in these current market conditions.
For more information about Colarion Partners, please visit: https://colarionpartners.com/
You can subscribe to Sam Haskell's Substack "5 Points", here: https://fivepoint.substack.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[1:45] Sam Haskell's thoughts on the financial space, in general
[4:20] Generic banks - what Sam is focusing on these days in the current environment
[6:52] Hawaiian banks $BOH
[11:08] Puerto Rican banks
[14:46] Risk of banks that have a lot of held-to-maturity loans
[18:03] Customers Bank $CUBI
[19:35] Commercial real estate
[29:04] What would Sam like to see banks do with their excess capital
[34:01] Capital One $COF
[36:40] US Commercial REITs
[39:35] Future banking vs Private credit lending
[43:35] Conversions
[48:30] Community banks and M&A
[50:10] ECIP banks
[53:21] $PCB
[57:12] SBA Lending
Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense
Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.
But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/
Jeremy Raper, Founder of Raper Capital, is back on Yet Another Value Podcast to share his latest idea: Alto Ingredients, Inc. (NASDAQ: ALTO), a leading producer and distributor of specialty alcohols and essential ingredients. On June 29, 2023, Jeremy published "An Open Letter to the Board of Alto Ingredients, Inc." on his website (link below), where he outlines strategic alternatives for the company.
For more information about Jeremy Raper and Raper Capital, please visit: https://rapercapital.com/
Jeremy's Letter to $ALTO management: https://rapercapital.com/2023/06/29/an-open-letter-to-the-board-of-alto-ingredients-inc/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[1:59] Alto Ingredients $ALTO background, overview and why Jeremy is interested
[14:34] Carbon capture and sequestration
[18:41] What Jeremy wants the company to do - outlines strategic alternatives
[24:53] Valuation and why $ALTO should be an acquisition target
[28:51] $ALTO political risk on subsidies
[35:00] $ALTO management risk and alignment
[42:41] Final thoughts on $ALTO
[44:52] Update on $FAR.AX
[49:07] The struggle investing in commodity-focused businesses: looking at coal and oil & gas sectors
Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense
Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.
But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/
It's time to welcome back Chris DeMuth for his monthly state of the markets. For this June 2023 edition, Chris provides the latest news on the Activision / Microsoft antitrust case + his thoughts on the case.
For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[1:36] Update on Activision / Microsoft deal and antitrust case
[14:00] When is it time for the FTC need to engage in damage control?
[21:42] Activision / Microsoft trial and the speed of its conclusion and ruling
[26:05] Gaming potential outcomes if Activision / Microsoft deal hits walk date
[32:55] The odds are that the judge rules in Microsoft's favor here?
[41:15] One sentence on Uranium
Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense
Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.
But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/
Nitin Sacheti, Founder and Portfolio Manager at Papyrus Capital, is back to update his INNOVATE (NYSE: VATE) thesis. In his first appearance on the podcast, Nitin went into detail on all segments of the INNOVATE business, a highly levered holding company with three operating segments in: Infrastructure, Life Sciences and Spectrum. The stock has been volatile of late, and as Nitin notes in the beginning of the interview, "because there's a lot in here, there's some businesses that have done better than I had originally thought they would do when we first discussed it 20 months ago." Tune in to learn more.
Link to Nitin's first appearance on YAVP talking $VATE: https://youtu.be/eVJMeJFNXIY
For more information on Papyrus Capital and Nitin Sacheti, please visit: https://papyruscapital.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[1:38] Update on INNOVATE $VATE since Nitin's first appearance on Yet Another Value Podcast (link here: https://youtu.be/eVJMeJFNXIY)
[7:21] Controlling shareholder, Avi Glazer from Lancer Capital, and how that affects $VATE
[16:41] What is going to change the $VATE story? What's tracking better than Nitin's thesis on $VATE?
[23:32] Update on the DBM segment
[27:24] Other $VATE segments that have worked better than Nitin thought they were going to play out; closer look at R2 segment and Meta Beacon segment update
[36:08] What makes the Meta Beacon platform valuable?
[40:18] Update on the Spectrum segment and how Nitin thinks about it's value
[51:22] What does Nitin think is the most likely piece for $VATE to realize value?
Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense
Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.
But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/
Kevin Mak, CFA, Founder of Creek Drive Capital and Teacher at Stanford University of a course called, Financial Trading Strategy, discusses his thesis on Pagaya Technologies (NASDAQ: PGY), a company that uses big data and AI to look at people's credit scores and look at people's different credit factors to determine whether or not they are more credit-worthy than what would be otherwise seen in this traditional lending system.
Link to Kevin's $PGY articles on Seeking Alpha: https://seekingalpha.com/author/kevin-mak-cfa
Twitter: https://twitter.com/KevinLMak
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[1:42] Business overview of Pagaya Therapeutics $PGY and why is it interesting?
[7:31] What is unique about $PGY's business model
[10:11] $PGY valuation
[14:30] Why is the short interest high?
[16:21] $PGY capital requirements and addressing red flags
[21:16] $PGY business quality
[31:38] $PGY bull case scenario and what the company is projecting / Upstart comp
[38:08] Making sense of $PGY's recent financial performance
[44:00] Does $PGY have a data advantage compared to their peers / Acquisition of Darwin Homes
[49:34] Single-family home business
[51:26] Oak HC/FT investment in $PGY
[54:50] Kevin's background and his Stanford course
Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense
Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.
But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/
Dave Johnson, Managing Partner at Caligan Partners, makes his second appearance to discuss his thesis on MorphoSys AG (FSE: MOR; NASDAQ: MOR), including: history of the company, change in business strategy from a royalty play to traditional biotech, Pelabresib clinical trials for Myelofibrosis indication and more!
For more information about Dave Johnson and Caligan Partners, please visit: https://www.caliganpartners.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[1:47] What is MorphoSys $MOR and why is it so interesting?
[9:58] How and why Caligan Partners got involved in $MOR
[19:34] What is Pelabresib and why Dave/Caligan are excited about this with regard to $MOR
[27:27] Clinical trial enrollment for Pelabresib / Constellation Pharmaceuticals acquisition
[33:09] Next steps for Pelabresib
[36:04] Dave's thoughts on the timing of Pelabresib being approved (if approved)
[38:25] Pressure on biotech management teams from boards to get deals done
[40:56] Probability of success of Pelabresib and how do you value $MOR as a result
[47:16] Constellation Pharmaceuticals acquisition process
[50:25] Buying back convertible bonds and why that was an accretive transaction
[52:55] Final thoughts on $MOR
Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense
Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.
But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/
Yaron Naymark, Founder of 1 Main Capital, is back for the third time on the Yet Another Value Podcast to discuss Limbach Holdings (NASDAQ: LMB), a mechanical systems solution engineering company that focuses on HVAC systems. Yaron talks about the evolution of the company since it went public via SPAC in 2016, transitioning towards the owner direct business and away from the older general contractor business, growth through acquisition strategy, equity raise in 2021 and why he finds $LMB interesting.
For more information about Yaron Naymark and 1 Main Capital, please visit: https://www.1maincapital.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[1:57] What is Limbach Holdings $LMB and why is it interesting
[10:28] Edge in transitioning towards the owner direct business and away from the older general contractor business
[13:58] Growth through acquisition
[20:38] Maintenance contracts
[23:54] Market share for owners of infrastructure and critical infrastructure markets
[25:49] How does macro recession or commercial real estate recession affect $LMB
[30:24] $LMB's retention of employees post-acquisition
[32:26] $LMB Valuation
[37:32] Can $LMB do accretive M&A?
[41:29] Recent insider purchases
[43:25] Equity raise in 2021 - what happened and why did it receive the response that it did?
[54:24] Final thoughts on $LMB: addition to the Russell 2000 and expiring warrants
[55:37] Incorporating AI into investing and research process?
Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense
Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.
But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/
Marc Rubinstein, Founder and Editor of the Net Interest Newsletter, is back on the Yet Another Value Podcast to have a wide-ranging discussion digging into Marc's thoughts on the current state of banks, financial sector, as well as dissecting his article on what makes Capital One $COF interesting.
For more information about Marc Rubinstein, please visit: https://www.netinterest.co/
Article on Capital One: https://www.netinterest.co/p/capital-one-buffetts-latest-banking
Article on Charles Schwab: https://www.netinterest.co/p/vivat-charles-schwab
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[1:50] Overall thoughts on what's going on in the financial space
[5:15] Banks are balance sheets
[9:23] Why is tangible book value good? Why can't we go to half of tangible book value for a long time?
[13:47] Activism in community banks
[16:50] Wave of bank consolidation coming?
[19:06] Advantages in small banks
[22:32] History of Capital One $COF and what makes them interesting
[33:33] Marc's thoughts on the bank failure reports and has the way banking works fundamentally changed?
[42:11] Why isn't $COF not interested in buying regional banks anymore?
[48:58] Buffet attracted to the online side of or is he actually attracted to the diversified, consumer-focused nature of these banks?
[51:39] Does Capital One have a technology / marketing advantage versus other people?
[58:06] What does the future look like for Charles Schwab $SCHW?
[1:05:39] Current valuation of $SCHW
[1:07:36] Earnings issue, not liquidity issue
[1:09:27] Are we underestimating how profitable banks will be coming out of this banking crisis?
Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense
Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.
But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/
Brian McGough, head of retail at Hedgeye, joins the podcast to discuss the state of the retail sector, hit a wide variety of names, and explain why he's so bearish on the sector currently.
You can find Brian on twitter here: https://twitter.com/HedgeyeRetail
This podcast is sponsored by Hedgeye. Hedgeye is an investment research firm that delivers high-conviction investment ideas through fundamental, quantitative, and Macro analysis. If you’d like access to Hedgeye’s favorite long and short stock ideas, check out The Call @ Hedgeye, their daily stock investing webcast featuring Brian and the entire stock analyst team. Go to Hedgeye.com/Value and you’ll get a special introductory price of just $6 for the first 6 months.
Chapters 0:00 Intro 2:15 What is Brian seeing in the retail sector now? 7:15 What retail companies look undervalued? 13:40 Discussing ASO's growth story 20:50 Is Hibbett cheap enough to consider? 25:20 Being bullish RH and buying their stock when they're not buying back 29:15 Comping WSM to RH 32:00 Brian's bearishness on Pelton 37:00 Can Nike really generate alpha from current prices? 42:10 CPRI's valuation and possible SOTP 45:00 Helen of Troy could be in for tough sledding 47:50 What's Brian's crystal ball telling him about the next six months?
It's time to welcome back Chris DeMuth for his monthly state of the markets. For this May 2023 edition, Chris shares his thoughts on the government suing to block the Horizon Therapeutics sale to Amgen, government's history of antitrust cases, Amazon / iRobot deal, evaluating judges in antitrust cases, banking sector and more!
For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[1:58] What's on Chris' mind for May 2023 starting with government suing to block the Horizon Therapeutics sale to Amgen and government history of antitrust cases
[9:22] Amazon / iRobot deal
[13:23] What is the government arguing in the Amgen / Horizon case
[16:39] Evaluating antitrust cases, judges in particular + Amgen / Horizon case cont'd
[29:09] Banking sector: update on regional banks and how Chris thinks about the space right now
[39:15] Closing thoughts
Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense
Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.
But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/
Joining the Yet Another Value Podcast today is the Editor and Co-Founder of The Chancery Daily to have a stirring conversation about the wild $AMC / Apes Case. To say The Chancery Daily has been covering every detail of this case would be an understatement and the following interview will wholly confirm that.
To subscribe and catch up on all aspects of the $AMC / Apes case, as well as to subscribe The Chancery Daily substack, please visit: https://thechancerydaily.substack.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[1:50] $AMC / Ape Lawsuit overview
[10:02] Conversion of Apes and AMC share into one share class with Ontario Capital and what happened at the shareholder meeting
[18:53] Why are $AMC shareholders suing to block the Ape/$AMC share consolidation
[21:38] Current status on shareholder vote
[26:38] What are the objectors mainly objecting to?
[36:28] Hedge funds - what are they getting wrong about this case?
[38:22] Baseline expectation of the settlement, is it realistic?
[47:30] Delaware legislation impact on the $AMC case
[51:46] Proposals for what objectors want to see from $AMC
[53:39] Is there any liability from $AMC to ape buyers?
[58:32] Appeal rights post-settlement
[1:05:57] Final thoughts on the whole $AMC / Apes case
Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense
Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.
But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/
BONUS EPISODE with Jonathan Cukierwar, Principal of the General Partner at Sohra Peak Capital Partners - this interview was recorded live at the Planet MicroCap Showcase: VEGAS 2023. Topics covered: investing in global MicroCap stocks, building relationships with management with teams based in another country, Q&A from the audience, plus an overview and Q&A on Duratec $DUR.AX.
For more information about Jonathan Cukierwar and Sohra Peak Capital Partners, please visit: https://www.sohrapeakcapital.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction
[1:16] Jonathan Cukierwar's background and launch of Sohra Peak Capital Partners
[2:57] Discovery process when looking at international MicroCap ideas
[6:03] Building relationships with management teams in a different country and traveling to visit the companies
[8:47] Q&A with audience: currency risks, international databases for looking at data on global stocks, regulatory risk and more!
[19:30] Overview and Q&A on Duratec $DUR.AX
BONUS EPISODE with Michael Liu, Analyst at Intelligent Fanatics Capital Management - this interview was recorded live at the Planet MicroCap Showcase: VEGAS 2023. Topics covered: discovery process for MicroCap stocks, building relationships with management, disagreements with management, groupthink, all followed by Q&A from the audience.
For more information about Michael Liu and Intelligent Fanatics Capital Management, please visit: https://if.capital/
You can Follow Michael Liu on Twitter @michael20171 : https://twitter.com/michael2017l
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction
[1:20] Michael Liu and Intelligent Fanatics Capital Management backgrounds
[2:25] Discovery process for MicroCap stocks
[5:51] Building relationships with management teams
[9:47] How does Michael handle disagreements with management teams
[11:56] Avoiding the MicroCap groupthink echo-chamber (or not, if the collective is right)
[14:29] Herd mentality in MicroCaps and executing on information arbitrage
[19:33] Q&A with audience
Brian Finn, CIO of Findell Capital Management, is back on Yet Another Value Podcast in the quickest turnaround in the show's history, and for good reason. Following earnings calls from $CUTR (idea recently discussed with Vince Martin, link below) and $OPRT (idea discussed on Brian's first appearance, link below), there was a ton information to dissect.
Link to last podcast on $CUTR: https://youtu.be/LVqVzbAohus
Link to last podcast on $OPRT: https://youtu.be/xoxdSl3FwOk
Findell Capital Management Letter to the Oportun (3/29/2023): https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5e17f2a118561f6339437f24/t/64240b4f0cf8705352d472b7/1680083791192/Findell+letter+to+OPRT.pdf
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[1:38] Update on $CUTR following earnings, new board slate
[9:27] What happened on the $CUTR earnings call, who's on the new board slate and CEO candidates
[15:33] $CUTR cash burn and potential financing needs going forward
[19:30] What happens with the $CUTR former CEO and former Chairman
[23:39] How do you assign a value to $CUTR when looking at the potential upside with AviClear product
[31:22] How $CUTR is dealing with management and board turnover
[36:50] Final thoughts on $CUTR
[39:00] Quick update on $OPRT following earnings call
[43:24] How has regional banking "crisis" affected $OPRT
[47:49] Thoughts on Tidewater earnings
Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense
Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.
But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/
Doug O'Laughlin, Founder and Editor of the Fabricated Knowledge and Mule's Musings Newsletter, joins the Yet Another Value Podcast for the 3rd time to discuss AppLovin Corporation (NASDAQ: APP). Doug became excited about the idea and wanted to come on to chat about it because a very aggressive PSU that recently happened at AppLovin, and what these management incentives could mean for the business.For more information about Doug O'Laughlin and his newsletters, please visit:
Fabricated Knowledge: https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/
Mule's Musings: https://mulesmusings.substack.com
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[2:17] Overview of AppLovin $APP
[4:50] What does IDFA means and why this is important when looking at $APP, understanding "Mediation"
[13:19] $APP's business model and their portfolio of hyper-casual games
[20:41] Unity and ironSource deal and how that affected AppLovin $APP
[26:22] $APP valuation
[29:30] What is the market missing about $APP?
[32:52] Share buybacks
[36:36] PSU grants and management incentives
[39:32] What concerns Doug the most about $APP
[40:23] Industry headwinds (ad rates getting crushed throughout 2022)
[42:58] $APP corporate governance, acquisition hit rate, incentives
[52:37] Strategic optionality of selling the games business and AI lever
Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense
Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.
But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/
It's time to welcome back Chris DeMuth for his monthly state of the markets. For this April 2023 edition, Chris shares his thoughts on the Spectrum Brands antitrust lawsuit, thoughts on Activision Microsoft following the CMA unexpectedly ruled against the deal, and the Wells Notice sent to Coinbase.
For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[1:36] What's on Chris' mind for April 2023: AMC, Coinbase, Spectrum Brands, Greyscale Trust
[2:33] Spectrum Brands antitrust lawsuit
[15:36] Understanding the value on Spectrum Brands if they win or lose the case
[23:27] The politics behind the Spectrum Brands case
[28:27] Thoughts on Activision Microsoft following the CMA unexpectedly ruled against the deal
[34:40] Does Activision want extend the walk date?
[37:09] What is a Wells Notice, the Wells Notice sent to Coinbase, their response to the Wells Notice
[42:44] What is the timeline and enforcement process now after sending the Wells Notice to Coinbase
[46:33] Politics on both sides of the Coinbase argument
Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by AlphasenseAre traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/
Jay Van Sciver, Head of Industrials and Materials at Hedgeye, shares his thoughts on industrials and materials in 2023. Automobiles, Elon Musk, rails, Norfolk Southern, geopolitical commodities landscape - this podcast runs the gamut; tune in to hear Jay's takes on it all.
For more information about Hedgeye, please visit: https://app.hedgeye.com/insights
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Hedgeye
[1:07] Industrial Sector overview: quick takes on VW, Porsche and other auto makers
[5:31] Additional thoughts on Volkswagen and Lucid
[7:53] Corporate governance issues: specifically referring to Jay's take on Elon Musk
[13:27] Brand awareness of Tesla vs other EV brands
[19:40] Is now the right time to short Tesla?
[25:32] Why does the Porsche short trade exist?
[30:55] Jay's bearish case for Uber
[38:25] Additional thoughts on industrials, specifically, Jay's thoughts on rails
[44:20] Understanding Rails' valuations
[48:05] Opportunity in Norfolk Southern?
[48:59] Materials Jay is looking at
[52:52] Closing remarks
Today's episode is sponsored by: Hedgeye
This podcast is sponsored by Hedgeye. Hedgeye does fantastic work, and I think that shines through in the conversation we have today. If you like the conversation and are interested in learning more, please check out hedgeye at hedgeye.com
Vince Martin, Lead Analyst and Writer at the Overlooked Alpha newsletter, discusses the "Game of Thrones" style proxy fight happening at $CUTR. For more information about the Overlooked Alpha newsletter, please visit: https://www.overlookedalpha.com/
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[2:06] What is Cutera $CUTR - An Overview
[3:33] Cutera's acne products
[5:44] Sales strategy for acne products and how that panned out
[8:35] Understanding to potential stickiness for AviClear and comparables
[11:13] Proxy fight
[15:21] Dynamics between CEO and Executive Chairman
[21:40] Market response to board's decisions; specifically withdrawing 2023 guidance
[25:00] Unique gamesmanship
[27:44] More on withdrawing guidance; that could've been a tool for the board
[30:50] How two biggest shareholders seem to not support the board's decision to fire the CEO and Executive Chairman
[34:12] Executive Chairman's background; what's his angle and potential reasons for why he wants to become CEO
[37:56] Board of Directors' potential paths to winning
[42:50] How odd this proxy fight really is; as Andrew puts it, very "Game of Thrones"
[46:27] Most likely outcome of the $CUTR proxy fight
[48:03] Does every see a "golden goose" or value destruction?
[51:37] Closing thoughts on $CUTR and valuationToday's episode is sponsored by: Stream by AlphasenseAre traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/
Brian Finn, CIO of Findell Capital Management, discusses the letter he sent to Oportun Financial's board (NASDAQ: OPRT). Since Oportun's September 2019 IPO, shares have fallen -85%, falling well behind competitor, OneMain Holdings (OMF). In addition, costs have exploded higher and acquisitions have proved disastrous.Findell Capital Management Letter to the Oportun (Nasdaq: OPRT) Board of Directors (3/29/2023): https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5e17f2a118561f6339437f24/t/64240b4f0cf8705352d472b7/1680083791192/Findell+letter+to+OPRT.pdfChapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[1:50] Oportun Financial overview and why Findell Capital sent a letter to OPRT's board of directors
[9:20] What is the $OPRT Board of Directors doing? What is the incentive structure?
[11:45] Understanding $OPRT's subprime lending business for underbanked folks
[15:32] Comparing $OPRT to competitors like OneMain
[24:20] Unpacking $OPRT valuation
[28:29] How Oportun's corporate strategy is wrong
[30:38] $OPRT valuation cont'd - what is the fair value of the loans + cost of financing
[34:29] $OPRT Q4 2022 earnings call
[38:54] Next steps following Findell's sending of the letter
[43:01] Why $OPRT should be private or run by PE
[44:51] Closing thoughts on $OPRT
Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense
Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.
But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/
Artem Fokin, Portfolio Manager at Caro-Kann Capital LLC, returns to the podcast (for the third time) to update his thesis on Burfurd (BUR) on the heels of their big YPF summary judgement ruling against Argentina.
For more information about Caro-Kann Capital, please visit: http://caro-kann-capital.com/
Artem's first appearance on BUR: https://youtu.be/qBuH8pyc8Y0
Muddy Waters BUR case: https://www.muddywatersresearch.com/research/bur/mw-is-short/
Artem's response: http://caro-kann-capital.com/pdf/2019_09_09_Burford_Muddy_Waters_Dreams_of_Black_Cat_That_Just_Is_Not_There_by_Caro-Kann_Capital.pdfChapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[2:33] Initial thoughts on Burford on the heels of the YPF summary judgement ruling
[6:30] How winning this case validates the Burford business
[9:03] Why is Burford saying this is such a complete win against Argentina?
[16:25] Cont'd on why is Burford saying this is such a complete win against Argentina?
[21:26] Understanding the mechanics of the waterfall payments
[30:37] Largest risks to Burford now; odds Argentina wins on appeal?
[33:39] Clarifying the mechanics of an appeal
[36:48] Estimated proceeds the Burford can actually collect
[44:59] What kind of cash flow is going to come into the company?
[55:13] Burford's asset recovery business
[59:04] Argentina's options if they want to stay in the international business community
[1:01:28] Capital allocation plans Burford could do
[1:06:42] Monetizing stakes
[1:17:31] Thoughts on this SEC fair value discussion they're having
[1:22:32] Quick update on Burford's businessToday's episode is sponsored by: Stream by AlphasenseAre traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/
Michael Liu, Analyst at Intelligent Fanatics Capital Management, discusses Cogstate (ASX: CGS) / (OTCQX: COGZF). Cogstate provides computerized cognitive tests for Alzheimer's clinical trials. Michael came on to discuss his thesis on Cogstate and how a failed takeover attempt could create an interesting special situation.
For more information about Michael Liu and Intelligent Fanatics Capital Management, please visit: https://if.capital/
You can Follow Michael Liu on Twitter @michael20171 : https://twitter.com/michael2017l
Chapters:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[1:51] What is Cogstate and why are they interesting?
[6:21] Cogstate Fundamentals
[8:01] Why doesn't large pharma, like Biogen, develop these cognitive tests on their own?
[10:38] Cogstate value proposition
[12:04] Does Cogstate control all the data from the clinical trials?
[12:47] Alternative to Cogstate's computerized cognitive tests (pen and paper tests), and understanding competitive landscape
[16:08] Current Cogstate market share for their tests vs. pen and paper tests
[18:12] Growth in Alzheimer's research and diversifying revenues outside of big Phase II and Phase III clinical trials for Alzheimer's drugs
[21:30] Additional R&D post-approval of Alzheimer's drugs (what this means for Cogstate)
[25:55] Valuation
[29:53] Bookings and revenue recognition (and how that relates to thinking about valuation)
[33:44] What caused to the stock to plummet earlier this year February 2023
[35:43] Gaming out why the buyout didn't happen
[36:44] Management background
[39:16] Recent insider buys and understanding why this happened today vs months ago
[43:07] Who the buyers could be for Cogstate
[46:18] Closing thoughts on Cogstate - recent buyouts in the Australian space
Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense
Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.
But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/
It's the end of the month, which means its time to welcome back Chris DeMuth for his monthly state of the markets. March 2023 was a doozy, so a lot to breakdown here, including: banking crises, thoughts on Coinbase's wells notice, mergers hanging in the balance (JetBlue/Spirit & Microsoft/Activision Blizzard), and more!
For more information about Rangeley Capital, please visit: http://www.rangeleycapital.com/
Show notes:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[1:40] What's on Chris' mind for March 2023: Banks, Energy, Crypto, Government public policy reaction, plus more!
[3:05] Volatility in Banking
[6:27] First Republic
[7:33] Public policy response to 2023 banking crises
[11:46] Chris' thoughts on Coinbase's wells notice & policy
[12:56] Why SEC paying closer attention to Coinbase now?
[15:57] Andrew's three reasons holding him back from rushing into regional/community bank stocks + Chris' concerns
[23:26] JetBlue Spirit deal and trend towards government agencies taking a more aggressive stance on blocking mergers
[27:32] JetBlue Spirit cont'd: How do they get in a situation where it seems so clear to you and me that this was going to be a regulatory problem? How do they get in a situation where they were in this regulatory issue?
[34:00] Microsoft - Activision Blizzard merger deal
[37:15] Timeline for merger trial
[40:56] Closing thoughts
Today's episode is sponsored by: Stream by Alphasense
Are traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.
But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/
Alex Morris, Founder of TSOH Investment Research, returns to Yet Another Value Podcast for the third time to chat with Andrew about the Media and Cable sectors in 2023. The Media and Cable sectors move at a mile a minute and it was time to have Alex back on to sift through all the noise. This conversation covers everything from: how mobile carriers think about fixed wireless, Charter vs. Cable One & T-Mobile, does Disney have an IP problem, and much more.
For more information about Alex Morris and subscribe to his research service, TSOH Investment Research Service, please visit: https://thescienceofhitting.com/
You can Follow Alex Morris on Twitter @TSOH_Investing: https://twitter.com/TSOH_Investing
Chapters:[0:00] Introduction + Daloopa
[2:22] Media and Cable space - high level thoughts on 2022/beginning of 2023
[4:30] Rewinding to better understand current media/cable infrastructure and how Alex thinks about fixed wireless
[8:57] How mobile carriers talking about fixed wireless
[12:08] Why Alex has Charter and Comcast in his portfolio?
[14:43] How does Alex think about Comcast being potentially being valued with conglomerate discount?
[19:05] Charter vs. Cable One and Charter vs. T-Mobile
[23:11] A bit more on T-Mobile
[27:54] Why Alex thinks you can achieve risk-adjusted alpha investing in Charter?
[31:53] Understanding Charter's CAPEX story
[33:45] Cable assets, Fiber assets + M&A
[37:09] Final thoughts on Cable/Fiber conversation
[40:06] What Alex is seeing in the Media business that is so attractive
[43:53] Does Disney have an IP problem?
[48:28] Taking a look at the state of Netflix - do they need a merger partner or to buy something?
[51:37] Making the case that Netflix is a risk-adjusted alpha generator
[54:32] Final thoughtsThis podcast is brought to you by Daloopa.
Daloopa was founded by a former hedge fund analyst. He didn’t have a tool that he trusted to be 99.9% accurate that allowed him to pull updates directly into his existing models, and had the granularity in KPIs, Guidance, and non-GAAP adjustments that he needed. So, he built Daloopa. Daloopa is the fastest growing source for public company data, with data available for over 3,000 companies. Hundreds of AI algorithms collect and organize customized company historicals with an accuracy level and depth of data that is higher than anything achievable by other modeling tools. Each datapoint is auditable to the source. Daloopa’s Excel plugin is the first to allow you to update your models in your existing format. It’s simple and non-invasive—Daloopa will never #REF out your models. Daloopa clients are able to cover more opportunities and generate more ideas. No more data errors, no more Excel monkeying, just the fundamentals. See why equity investors are switching to Daloopa by checking them out at Daloopa.com/YAVP.
John Maxfield, Editor of the Maxfield on Banks Newsletter on Substack, has spent nearly two decades studying America's best and worst banks, the history of banking, and interviewing bank leaders. John joins the Yet Another Value Podcast today to answer your burning questions regarding investing banks, his mindset during this "crisis" and how to think about investing in banks moving forward.
For more information and to subscribe to John's new substack, please visit: https://maxfieldonbanks.substack.com/
Show notes:
[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Stream by Alphasense
[1:43] John Maxfield's background and how he got into investing in banks
[4:52] Overall thoughts investing in banks right now in a post-SIVB, UBS buying Credit Suisse world
[8:43] Blood in the streets in banks vs. other markets[12:45] Why are customers with $10-100M running uninsured deposits in First Republic?
[13:55] Regional banks
[21:13] How should folks be weighing the risks with regard to investing in banks?
[26:54] Catalysts that caused the 1873 crisis; what can we learn from that crisis
[29:06] The "everyone needs to chill" model when thinking about run on the banks
[33:20] Bank metrics - how KPIs investors care about have changed/evolved
[35:25] Franchise risk for banks
[38:48] Does what is happening now have an impact on the community banks?
[47:11] Bank stocks that look interesting to John Maxfield in a Post-SIVB world
[57:47] How do you make $$ as a bank investor buying a bank for 4x book value?
[59:47] Generalist interest in banks: what should folks put more weight on when evaluating various investing opportunities (HINT: how did they perform during the 2008 financial crisis)
[1:04:38] How important is speaking with management from bank stocks?
[1:06:41] Closing thoughtsToday's episode is sponsored by: Stream by AlphasenseAre traditional expert calls in the investment world becoming obsolete? According to Stream, they are, and you can access primary research easily and efficiently through their platform. With Stream, you'll have the right insights at your fingertips to make the best investment decisions. They offer a vast library of over 26,000 expert transcripts, powered by AI search technology. Plus, they provide competitive rates on expert call services, and you can even have an experienced buy-side analyst conduct the calls for you.But that's not all. Stream also provides the ability to engage with experts 1-on-1 and get your calls transcribed free-of-charge—all for 40% less than you would pay for 20 calls in a traditional expert network model. So, if you're looking to optimize your research process and increase ROI on investment research spend, Stream has the solution for you. Head over to their website at streamrg.com to learn more. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time. For more information: https://www.streamrg.com/
Julia Laulis, Chair of the Board, President & CEO of Cable One, Inc. (NYSE: CABO), joins Yet Another Value Podcast to discuss how the cable industry is positioned right now in 2023, and Cable One's focus moving forward. Cable One will also be at The Markel Corporation's 2023 shareholders meeting in Richmond, VA on May 17, 2023, where Andrew will also be in attendance. Chapters:0:00 - Introduction + Episode sponsor: $BYTE1:44 - Let's talk about the Cable business; why its an exciting and scary time in the space4:04 - Does fixed wireless pose a risk to Cable One's focus on broadband for small cities, large towns strategy?6:47 - The fear with fixed wireless10:13 - Cable One's experience with fixed wireless12:13 - Data usage15:16 - What is it that ultimately turns a fixed wireless customer into a parking place for a future cable customer?17:17 - Reliability of the network19:07 - MD&O strategy21:56 - Fiber overbuilding in general27:49 - Customer ARPU31:37 - Cable One's pricing34:44 - Data throughputs38:14 - Switching to IPTV and how does this improve the economics of the business42:13 - Julia's thoughts on fiber vs. Docsis 4.0 for Cable One46:57 - Is Julia starting to the M&A environment picking up? 48:51 - Share buybacks and capital allocation strategy51:27 - Customer churn and macro perspective on new connects 1:00:16 - Cont'd. on customer low churnToday's episode is sponsored by: Roundhill IO Digital Infrastructure ETF – BYTEInvesting in the real assets that underpin our digital world has never been easier. We are pleased to bring you this podcast in partnership with Roundhill Investments, the advisor to the Roundhill IO Digital Infrastructure ETF – BYTE - which trades on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol - “B” “Y” “T” “E”. The fund tracks the BYTE Index, which measures the performance of 40 leading global digital infrastructure businesses, such as towers and mobile communications, fiber and fixed line connectivity, and data centers. For a prospectus and more information, please visit roundhillinvestments.com/etf/byte - read carefully. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing in BYTE. Distributor Foreside Fund Services, LLC: https://www.roundhillinvestments.com/etf/byte/
Chadd Garcia, Portfolio Manager and Senior Research Analyst at Schwartz Investment Counsel Inc. - Ave Maria Mutual Funds, joins the Yet Another Value Podcast for the first time to discuss DigitalBridge Group, Inc. (NYSE: DBRG), and why he finds there could be price dislocation in the global digital infrastructure firm.
Chapters:
0:00 - Introduction + Episode sponsor: $BYTE
2:23 - Overview of DigitalBridge Group, Inc. (NYSE: DBRG)
8:10 - Chadd's thoughts betting on CEO, Marc Ganzi, + background
12:38 - First part of the valuation argument, Chadd's describes the sum of the parts
18:17 - DigitalBridge investment summary so far + second part of the valuation argument (asset pitch), and what the sell-side is missing when they look at the asset value side of the business
26:30 - Thinking through the income statement and cash flow
29:38 - Updated guidance for 2023 and 2025: how does Chadd think about valuation with respect to this information
32:14 - Operating leverage
33:44 - Two acquisitions on the asset management business and their affect on D/E multiple
37:47 - Opportunity cost: Why choose DigitalBridge over alternatives?
40:02 - Addressing pushback on DigitalBridge 45:45 - Outlook on fundraising & acquisition environments
48:47 - Value catalysts for 2023
49:49 - Thinking the the DBRG's scaling potential
50:59 - Does Chadd Garcia think DBRG eventually branches outside digital infrastructure?
52:36 - DBRG's capital allocation strategy
55:45 - Marc Ganzi's payout incentive and how that affects investor sentiment/thesis on DBRG
1:01:04 - Closing thoughts on DBRG
For more information about Chadd Garcia and Schwartz Investment Counsel Inc. - Ave Maria Mutual Funds, please visit: https://www.schwartzinvest.com/investing-with-us/ave-maria-mutual-funds/
Today's episode is sponsored by: Roundhill IO Digital Infrastructure ETF – BYTE
Investing in the real assets that underpin our digital world has never been easier. We are pleased to bring you this podcast in partnership with Roundhill Investments, the advisor to the Roundhill IO Digital Infrastructure ETF – BYTE - which trades on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol - “B” “Y” “T” “E”. The fund tracks the BYTE Index, which measures the performance of 40 leading global digital infrastructure businesses, such as towers and mobile communications, fiber and fixed line connectivity, and data centers. For a prospectus and more information, please visit roundhillinvestments.com/etf/byte - read carefully. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing in BYTE. Distributor Foreside Fund Services, LLC: https://www.roundhillinvestments.com/etf/byte/
Chris McIntyre returns to the podcast to discuss Sotera Healthcare (SHC), why he thinks it's such a good business, and why he thinks the stock is still undervalued even after a big run in the wake of putting their legal liabilities (largely) behind them.
Chapters
- 0:00 Intro
- 2:15 Sotera Overview
- 5:30 What makes Sotera such a good business?
- 14:30 Why it's so unlikely a new competitor can enter the space
- 19:55 Discussing Sotera's "growth algorithm"
- 23:30 Sotera's multiple / valuation
- 32:00 Historical legal liabilities overview
- 38:45 The "science" behind the legal liabilities
- 43:15 SHC's settlement and putting the legal liabilities behind them
- 49:00 Why Georgia is not the same risk as Illinois was
- 53:35 Sotera's controlling shareholders and their plans for the company
- 56:00 M&A and roll up possibilities
- 1:00:45 Closing thoughts
Chris DeMuth returns to the podcast for his monthly state of the markets, with updates on TGNA, ATVI, AMC / APE, and MANU.
Chapters
- 0:00 Intro
- 2:30 TGNA
- 27:00 ATVI / MSFT
- 42:30 AMC / APE
- 50:00 MANU
Yaron Naymark returns to the podcast to discuss the value case for IWG (London Listed). IWG is best known for their Regus brand, which competes with WeWork in the flex office space. Yaron thinks the market is discounting the operating leverage IWG will realize as they put COVID behind them and begin to accelerate their managed locations offering.
Chapters
- 0:00 Intro
- 2:10 IWG overview
- 12:05 How does the current high vacancy office space impact flex
- 17:00 Why COVID and tech layoffs could be a tailwind for flex office demand
- 20:05 Why office owners can't do flex themselves
- 28:30 Discussing WeWork's brand versus IWG
- 39:15 IWG's operating leverage and current valuation
- 52:35 Why is it taking IWG so long to accelerate their franchise business / refranchise corporate locations
- 55:50 Is pitching value creation / operating leverage just a Waiting for Godot story?
- 1:05:00 Looking at a potential Instant sale
- 1:12:30 The complexities of IWG's financial reporting
Josh Young, CIO of Bison, returns to the podcast to discuss what's going on in the energy markets and his recent investment thesis for Vital Energy (VTLE).
Bison's VTLE thesis: https://bisoninterests.com/content/f/vital-energy-is-deeply-discounted
Chapters
- 0:00 Intro
- 3:15 What's happened in energy stocks since Josh's last appearance
- 5:45 Discussing the outlook for nat gas
- 15:10 Josh's current outlook for oil
- 24:30 Is the oil market properly reflecting China's reopening
- 29:30 Can Russia keep up current production levels?
- 34:35 VTLE overview
- 51:00 Breaking down VTLE's assets a little further
- 57:35 What are the little things that energy companies do to improve operations
- 1:01:20 Has VTLE earned the right to pursue M&A?
- 1:07:00 VTLE's base case NAV valuation
- 1:11:30 Will private equity ever step back into the energy space?
Chris DeMuth joins the podcast to discuss the state of the markets in January 2023 and discuss what's on his mind, including updates on AVTI, the meme stocks roaring back, and why energy stocks seem poised to continue to perform well.
Chapters
- 0:00 Intro
- 2:15 What's on Chris's mind
- 5:20 Quick hits on ATVI, SPB, and SJR
- 15:00 More on ATVI
- 24:30 Meme stocks are back!
- 30:00 Continued discussion on AMC / APE
- 37:00 Shareholder discounts and WE's discounted desks
- 39:30 Energy stock performance versus energy prices over the past year
- 44:20 Why the world seems structurally short every commodity
Artem Fokin, founder of Caro-Kann Capital, discusses the bull case for Kaspi (KSPI). Kaspi is the dominant fintech in Kazakhstan, and Artem breaks down how it's trading for a value price despite rapid growth and how its dominance will allow it to grow into new sectors of the Kazakhstan economy.
Kaspi IPO case study from HBS: https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=56825
Chapters
- 0:00 Intro
- 2:30 KSPI Overview
- 8:15 Discussing how ingrained in Kazakhstan Kaspi is
- 11:20 Sizing and breaking down the payments business
- 24:45 How Kaspi's data helps them with consumer loans
- 31:30 Kaspi as a "tax" on the Kazakhstan economy
- 36:30 Discussing management and Kaspi capital allocation
- 43:40 Run on the bank risk 48:20 Kazakhstan country / GDP risk
- 53:00 Why hasn't KSPI succeeded outside of Kazakhstan
- 1:00:30 How to think about valuing KSPI
- 1:08:00 Framing KSPI's local currency risk
Jeremy Raper returns to the podcast to discuss his latest "engagement campaign" at London listed Serica Energy (SQZ). In particular, he focuses on why Serica is trying to rush through their most recent deal and why shareholders should consider voting against the share issuance at the meeting next week.
Jeremy's letter to Serica: https://rapercapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/open-letter-Serica-Board-1.pdf
All of Jeremy's engagement campaigns: https://rapercapital.com/engagement-campaigns/
Chapters
- 0:00 Intro
- 2:30 What's happening at SQZ
- 8:45 SQZ's past deal rejections and timing on this deal
- 15:45 Why an "accretive" deal does not necessarily create value
- 17:30 How this deal insulates management and discourages shareholder feedback
- 22:05 Discussing SQZ's shareholder base
- 27:30 How this deal gives away a controlling stake in Serica for free
- 30:00 What should shareholders who don't like this deal should do
- 32:20 How Serica management will respond if the current vote fails
- 36:05 Providing an update on the coal trade
- 47:35 Discussing Unit Corp (UNTC)
Judd Arnold discusses how the offshore place is at an inflection point and why he thinks Tidewater (TDW) is the best way to lay it.
Judd's initial piece on TDW: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1cKYzHg62bamDQa620NZcmn_af0A0xTfT/view
Judd's TDW space: https://twitter.com/CorneliaLake/status/1600172923355922434?s=20&t=_Q2xMKdTTh1Lhlp-HeRD3w
Chapters
- 0:00 Intro
- 2:30 What's interesting about offshore right now?
- 5:50 Comparing today's cycle to 2012-2014
- 10:00 TDW's replacement cost and why new build isn't starting any time soon
- 18:30 Why increasing utilization can quickly spike day rates
- 21:00 Discussing capital returns if we do see a day rate spike
- 25:20 Why focus on TDW versus the other offshore players?
- 30:30 What breaks the offshore cycle?
- 36:10 Offshore as a snowball running down the hill
- 39:30 How regulatory uncertainty impacts terminal value and potential new build dynamics
- 42:40 Discussing TDW's acquisition strategy
- 46:40 Given the cyclicality here, how do you value offshore?
- 54:40 Haven't the stocks already run?
- 59:30 What could accelerate the cycle?
The management team from Tidewater Offshore (TDW) comes on the podcast to discuss Tidewater and why we could be at an inflection point for the offshore space.
TDW's investor relations page (with investor deck): https://investor.tdw.com/overview/default.aspx
December OSV market report (from seabrokers): https://www.seabrokers.no/wp-content/uploads/SEABREEZE_December.pdf
Chapters
- 0:00 Intro
- 2:50 What's different in the current cycle?
- 8:00 Why supply is so limited in offshore
- 13:10 What is TDW seeing on the demand side?
- 26:00 Discussing TDW's valuation and where earnings can go as rates rise
- 32:30 TDW's potential utilization 38:10 EBITDA to free cash flow conversion
- 43:00 What do day rates look like right now?
- 47:10 How has TDW set up their fleet to take advantage of rising rates?
- 51:10 But seriously.... why is this time different?
- 57:30 How low would oil prices need to go to start impacting offshore drilling demand?
- 59:00 TDW capital allocation going forward
Chris DeMuth joins the podcast to discuss the state of the markets in December 2022 and what’s catching his eye in event driven land, including updates on ATVI, why pre-arb was so bad in 2022, and WLFC's proposed takeout.
Chapters
- 0:00 Intro
- 2:30 What's on Chris's mind
- 4:00 Discussing why "pre-arb" didn't work in 2022
- 11:20 Updating ATVI
- 21:00 Majority takeouts of minorities
- 29:45 WLFC takeout
- 37:20 AMZN's IRBT takeout
Lionel Hutz discusses his thesis for Liquidia (LQDA) and why the thinks they are likely to win their patent battle against United Therapeutics (UTHR).
Lionel's LQDA write up: https://lionelhutz.substack.com/p/waiting-with-bated-breath-for-liquidia
Chapters
- 0:00 Intro
- 2:50 LQDA overview
- 8:05 Diving into the patent background
- 16:10 Breaking down the conflicting rulings on the '793 patent
- 19:55 Why the PTAB ruling is the most important for '793
- 21:55 What's so unique about the judge's ruling on '793
- 28:30 Why PTAB ruled the '793 patent invalid
- 37:40 LQDA's primary argument for invalidating '793
- 43:30 Discussing the expert reports around the '793 patent
- 53:30 Timeline to monetization and why delaying LQDA is so important for UTHR
- 59:00 LQDA's upside if they win
- 1:13:00 LQDA's cash runway
Mordechai Yavneh, founder and PM at Focus Capital, discusses his investment in Silicon Motion (SIMO) and why he thinks it's "merger arb for people who don't like merger arb."
Focus Capital's research site (with SIMO deck): https://focuscapitaladvisers.com/research
Chapters
- 0:00 Intro
- 2:40 Why SIMO is different than normal merger arbitrage
- 6:00 More SIMO overview
- 11:25 Is the merger overhang impacting SIMO's price?
- 15:30 Discussing SIMO's fundamentals
- 21:30 Why companies are outsourcing to SIMO
- 25:50 Why SIMO is taking share
- 31:30 Breaking down SIMO's market share
- 34:15 Why SIMO's demand dynamics aren't like MU's
- 40:20 SIMO's proxy projections and fundamentals
- 45:35 How Mordechai looks at SIMO's fundamental value
- 52:15 Why MXL wanted to buy SIMO
- 57:00 Why SIMO saw some customer churn in ~2018
- 1:00:00 What are the odds the SIMO deal goes through?
- 1:03:45 Capital allocation in a potential deal break
Avi Fisher from Long Cast Advisors joins the pod to talk about CoreCard (CCRD). Key topics include the risks and opportunities from their Apple Card / GS relationship and the benefits of the CEO’s measured growth approach.
Chapters:
- 0:00 Intro
- 3:30 Avi's framework for evaluating stocks
- 22:45 How Avi found CCRD
- 24:35 CCRD's background
- 32:00 Discussing the GS relationship and concentration
- 36:50 CCRD's different revenue lines
- 40:50 Discussing the "Elephant in the room" (BB article on Apple trying to in house)
- 50:00 Could GS buy CCRD?
- 52:45 CCRD's valuation
- 59:00 What makes CCRD's product "premium"?
- 1:05:00 CCRD's approach to share repurchases
- 1:06:15 A little more on CCRD's management and history
- 1:10:30 Avi's closing thoughts
AJ Secrist from Firstlight Management discussed his thesis for Lamb Weston (LW). LW is a very strong business, and AJ thinks the market is missing just how much margin upside there is as COVID era deals with large customers reprice and the company laps 2021’s disastrous potato crop.
Chapters
- 0:00 Intro
- 2:25 LW Overview
- 9:35 LW Valuation
- 13:00 Isn't LW fully valued at these prices?
- 19:25 Discussing the current potato crop
- 26:55 Global margin upside
- 28:35 Why is scale an advantage for LW?
- 31:45 Why will LW's margins accelerate now?
- 34:30 Industry demand and supply dynamics
- 37:20 Capital allocation and share buybacks
- 41:30 Management incentives and share price targets
- 45:00 Potential private equity or BRK end games
- 48:10 A little more discussion on LW's potential P/E multiple
- 51:10 What happens if we have a low carb craze again?
The team from Half Moon Capital, Eric DeLamarter and Brandon Carnovale, come on the pod to discuss their thesis on Oxford Industries (OXM). OXM owns the Tommy Bahama and Lily Pulitzer brands, and Half Moon thinks the market is underestimating the strength of those brands for a variety of reasons.
Half Moon's OXM thesis: https://acrobat.adobe.com/id/urn:aaid:sc:VA6C2:aec0338f-33d0-4e35-b956-ac6aa024167a?viewer%21megaVerb=group-discover
Chapters
- 0:00 Intro
- 2:20 OXM overview
- 5:00 Tommy Bahama brand strength
- 8:55 Could Tommy Bahama follow the LULU brand path?
- 16:05 OXM's valuation
- 22:10 Did Tommy Bahama over-earn during COVID?
- 28:00 OXM management 36:10 Capital Allocation and OXM's recent Johnny Was acquisition
- 38:30 CROX HEYDUDE acquisition and learnings for OXM
- 43:10 A little more on Tommy Bahama and the California branded hotel
- 47:30 OXM's margins and current competitive environment
- 53:30 Tommy Bahama's inventory risk
Chris DeMuth joins the podcast to provide his state of the markets for November 2022, including what's happened with TWTR since the deal closed, FTX's implosion, and a quick run down of a few other merger arb situations.
Chapters
- 0:00 Intro
- 2:50 What's going on with TWTR since the deal?
- 13:50 FTX's implosion
- 35:30 Chris's current thoughts on crypto
- 41:15 Walking through some merger situations
Michael Fritzell, founder of Asian Century Stocks, goes through his thesis on Casio Computer. Casio makes the popular G-Shock watches, and Michael thinks their rising popularity and a low valuation make for an interesting set up.
Michael's Casio write up: https://www.asiancenturystocks.com/p/fb1ac5f5-9ce9-4c56-a930-874d1f73f4c8
Chapters
- 0:00 Intro
- 3:00 Casio Overview
- 6:30 Are watches a dying business?
- 12:55 Is Casio hitting an inflection point?
- 18:30 Who's buying G-Shock?
- 20:00 Casio's valuation
- 25:00 Does Casio have enough upside?
- 28:30 Is management really willing to drive shareholder value?
- 31:00 Do watches make for a good D2C business?
The "Koala", a buyside mining and commodity specialist, comes on to discuss the commodity and mining space in general and Ivanhoe Electric (IE) in particular.
The Koala's twitter account: https://twitter.com/YellowLabLife
Chapters
- 0:00 Intro
- 2:55 General mining / commodity sector overview
- 12:40 The "nothing can get built anymore" moat
- 18:40 Capital discipline imposed by low multiples
- 22:00 How Peabody talked their own stock down with growth plans
- 31:00 What is the market missing on coal?
- 44:00 Why is Whitehaven still the Koala's coal horse?
- 49:30 Discussing Ivanhoe Mines history
- 56:55 Ivanhoe Electrics background
- 1:00:45 Ivanhoe's Typhoon Technology
- 1:04:30 Discussing Ivanhoe's mines
- 1:12:00 How did Ivanhoe find these great mines in the U.S.?
- 1:15:00 Ivanhoe's cash runway
Samir Patel, Portfolio Manager at Askeladden Capital, joins the podcast to discuss Mix Telematics (MIXT) and why he sent a letter to the company pushing for change.
Askeladden's letter to MIXT: https://www.accesswire.com/723191/Askeladden-Capital-Announces-Activist-Position-in-MiX-Telematics-NYSEMIXT
Chapters
- 0:00 Intro
- 2:50 MIXT Overview
- 5:45 MIXT's hardware to subscription switch
- 9:30 The economics of a MIXT subscription
- 12:30 What's the moat that prevents competitors entering the market?
- 18:30 MIXT retention and churn
- 21:00 MIXT high level valuation
- 24:20 Precedent comps for MIXT
- 27:30 Why did Askeladden send a letter to MIXT?
- 35:45 Digging into MIXT's lack of growth and margin expansion
- 39:15 MIXT's history of missing long term targets
- 43:45 Would a PE takeout make sense for MIXT?
- 46:00 MIXT's sales force
- 48:30 Tracking MIXT's progress in the near term
- 56:45 MIXT's recent chairman resignation and insider sales
Bill Chen, a real estate investor, returns to the podcast to discuss HHC's value and why Bill Ackman's current tender for the company might undervalue HHC.
HHC model: https://t.co/q6lQ69TeXZ
Chapters
- 0:00 Intro
- 2:50 HHC overview
- 7:15 How HHC can create value over time
- 9:15 Valuing HHC's operating assets
- 11:35 Opportunity cost versus other publicly traded real estate
- 17:35 Valuing HHC's unstabilized assets
- 19:30 Valuing HHC's Hawaiian assets (Ward Village)
- 29:55 Valuing HHC's "other" assets
- 31:40 Valuing HHC's MPC
- 45:20 Valuing HHC's Seaport asset
- 50:55 Why is HHC always trading under NAV?
- 54:00 Will non-Ackman shareholders ever realize value from HHC?
- 56:25 HHC's OXY deal
- 1:05:35 HHC's most recent MPC deal versus share buybacks
- 1:13:00 Ackman's long term HHC plan
Chris Lee, a MBA student who won the Dorsey Stock Pitch Competition, comes on the podcast to discuss his winning pitch for Delta Apparel (DLA).
Chris's winning pitch: https://dorseystockpitchcompetition.substack.com/p/long-delta-apparel-dla?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=web
Chapters
- 0:00 Intro
- 2:30 Chris's background
- 4:45 DLA overview
- 10:20 DLA's valuation
- 13:40 Returns on capital and competition
- 17:35 DLA's Fanatics partnership
- 23:10 The Salt Life Brand
- 27:30 Is this the right management team for Salt Life?
- 32:30 End game for Salt Life
- 34:50 Lack of disclosure worries
- 41:20 Why is this company public?
- 43:40 Closing thoughts
Chris DeMuth joins the podcast to discuss the state of the markets in October 2022 and what’s catching his eye in event driven land, with a large focus on TWTR.
My prior podcast on SPB: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1549013912133111808?s=20&t=6iWCDZC_8sPzlIuELTNwdQ
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:30 What's on Chris's mind this month (TWTR)
4:50 Twitter's security review (or lack thereof)
7:30 Jurisdiction for a potential TWTR security review
13:30 What would a security review look like?
21:40 The politics behind a TWTR security review
29:25 Potential repercussions from a TWTR security block
35:55 Last chance for financing and insolvency outs!
41:45 How big will the cost cuts at TWTR be?
45:50 Discussing Spectrum Brands
Luis Sanchez, founder of LVS Advisory, disses the bull thesis for IBKR, including why the company is a major beneficiary of interest rates rising and how the company's business to business solution can drive major account growth.
See Luis's IBKR write up here: https://lvsadvisory.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/LVS-Advisory-IBKR-Write-Up-September-2022.pdf
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:45 IBKR overview
6:05 What is Luis seeing in IBKR that the market is missing?
12:30 IBKR's valuation
15:15 Is IBKR more net interest or trading driven?
19:00 IBKR's focus on active traders
23:30 Does IBKR have one product risk from the bigger asset managers?
28:30 Blow up risk
38:00 International account risk and opportunity
42:45 Business to business growth
52:45 Trading account stickiness
53:35 IBKR and crypto
55:55 IBKR's founder and management team
1:00:15 Share buybacks and insider selling
Lionel Hutz, author of the excellent lionelhutz substack, comes on the podcast to talk about the ongoing drama with Twitter and Elon Musk. In this episode, we exclusively discuss the Twitter case as it stands on October 13th, the odds the deal closes at the end of the month, why it might not, and what happens if it doesn’t. If you’re looking for more background on the deal, please see my podcast from May with Evan Tindell or August with Professor Ann Lipton and Compound248.
Lionel's Twitter: https://twitter.com/LionelHutz_Esq
May pod with Evan: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1529452942931238914?s=20&t=7yi3kr0wvPY0nduenfVdSA
August pod with Ann and Compound: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1556987816894255106?s=20&t=LEFlc2kvhXZ_M59UhEj6NQ
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:30 Where we are today
6:55 Dismissing CFIUS and Bot Outs
9:20 Financing and Insolvency risks overview
14:10 How could the banks pull out of financing?
21:10 How would Elon's efforts over the next three weeks impact financing outs?
26:45 Are Elon's hands too dirty at this point to use a financing out?
29:10 How would an insolvency out play out?
30:55 Does section 5.9 suggest Elon must make Twitter solvent at close?
33:20 Judicial Estoppel / has Elon already repped TWTR is solvent?
39:30 Piercing the veil / getting Elon to pony up all the money
45:10 What does the trial process look like if Elon doesn't close now?
48:45 What arguments and discovery get made at trial if Elon tries a financing out?
52:15 What arguments and discovery get made if Elon tries an insolvency out?
56:40 Closing timeline and the Tesla blackout window theory
58:15 Would Elon's lawyers have supported the motion to stay if they weren't planning on closing?
1:01:50 Why does Elon seem so scared of getting deposed?
Doug O’Laughlin, founder of fabricated knowledge, returns to the podcast to discuss his thesis on SiTime (SITM).
Doug's SITM write up: https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/p/its-high-time-to-look-at-sitime
Doug's first pod appearance: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/p/doug-from-fabricated-knowledge-on
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:45 SITM overview
7:50 What is the market missing at SITM?
12:45 Near term numbers and does management have a handle on the business?
18:05 MEMS versus Quartz market size and growth
24:20 SITM's MEMS market share
27:00 Risk of insourcing MEMS
31:45 How did SITM "win" MEMS?
35:20 Apple and customer concentration
41:00 More on MEMS versus Quartz
43:40 Apple's "all-in" on MEMS
52:45 Why isn't MEMS taking share faster from Quartz?
1:00:30 SITM valuation
1:08:30 Capital allocation and insider buy
Zack Buckley discusses his investment thesis for Xponential Fitness (XPOF), including why he thinks the company is set for continued rapid growth.
Zack's twitter: https://twitter.com/Amarginofsafety
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:00 Zack's background
5:15 XPOF overview
8:20 Can XPOF buck the history of publicly traded fitness?
12:10 Brand sustainability and the Curves comp
15:15 XPOF's valuation and multiples
17:50 XPOF management history
20:55 How XPOF's partnerships can create value
22:55 Does XPOF have too many brands?
26:00 Can XPass drive customer acquisition?
29:15 What is Zack seeing in XPOF that the market is missing?
31:55 Why XPOF over other publicly traded franchises?
35:00 Is XPOF riding a post-COVID tailwind?
38:30 Franchisee unit economics
41:50 Recession risk
49:00 Has the competitive environment changed since the last recession?
54:45 Insider buying
57:00 Capital allocation and acquisitions going forward
Dave Johnson from Caligan Partners discusses his thesis on Evolus (EOLS). Evolus is a one product company. Their product, Jeuveau, is a Botox competitor exclusively focused on the cosmetics market, and Dave thinks the market is underpricing Jeuveau's strong growth potential.
Caligan's website: https://www.caliganpartners.com/
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:15 Caligan background
8:15 EOLS Overview
13:00 What does Dave see in EOLS that the market is missing?
19:30 Why can EOLS take share versus Botox
26:00 Why is EOLS focusing only on Cosmetics
29:30 Is M&A in EOLS's future?
33:15 EOLS acquisition targets and funding one
37:30 Getting operating leverage and hitting cash flow breakeven
40:15 What happens if we go into a recession?
43:25 What does pricing look like?
47:45 Does Daxxify's approval impact the market?
52:45 Will new entrants impact pricing for tox?
57:15 Closing thoughts
Chris DeMuth joins the podcast to discuss the state of the markets in September 2022 and what’s catching his eye in event driven land, including an aggressive anti-trust regime and the potential for a bump at Swedish Match.
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:50 What's on Chris's Mind
3:10 What's happening in Antitrust
8:25 Does UNH's win in CHNG change the environment
10:45 Does European regulation impact the antitrust environment?
15:55 The ATVI / MSFT deal
23:30 Is it ok for regulators to be this "outgunned"?
27:00 How do the November elections impact the antitrust outlook?
30:00 Quick TGNA discussion
31:45 Swedish Match
35:55 Is SWMA really undervalued?
40:20 Would there be alternative buyers for SWMA?
41:20 How FX impacts SWMA
Kyle Mowery and Jake Miller come on the podcast to discus their new CoVest Select venture and then dive deep into their thesis for Orion Engineered Carbons (OEC).
CoVest Twitter Account: https://twitter.com/CoVestSelect
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:20 CoVest overview
5:05 OEC overview
9:05 What is the market missing with OEC?
11:45 The supply demand dynamic for rubber black
14:15 Why isn't this a simple generic commodity business?
18:20 Are management's 2025 midcycle EBITDA targets reasonable?
21:00 Why can't a bunch of supply come online in the medium term?
26:05 How critical and replaceable is carbon black?
29:35 Recycling carbon black?
32:10 Will EPA capex really end?
36:10 OEC's debottlenecking investments
38:20 How the energy crisis effects OEC
47:30 Why OEC over competitors
51:10 Capital allocation and share buybacks
55:40 CoVest overview
59:55 Why work with CoVest
1:05:05 Timeline for a CoVest investment
Dave Waters of Alluvial Capital comes on the pod to discuss his investment thesis on $PX.
You can find Dave's original podcast appearance, where he discuss PX when it was still PIOE and some other small caps, here: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1300763059267481600?s=20
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:15 PX Overview
3:30 Management fee streams
5:10 Is PX's focus on fund of funds a concern?
8:25 Disintermediation risk for fund of funds
11:50 What is the market missing at PX?
15:20 Why PX versus a larger alt?
18:30 Comparing PX to KKR
23:20 PX's acquisition outlook
25:15 Can PX really cross sell funds?
28:15 More on PX's acquisitions
30:00 Adverse selection in fund of fund acquisitions
34:00 PX's recent CRSS investment
42:30 Why isn't PX buying back stock?
46:30 How PX's stock will get more liquid over time
48:15 PX's management team track record
52:00 Why Dave's digging in Italy and Poland
James Elbaor, founder and CIO of Marlton Capital, discusses his investment thesis for Pershing Square Holdings (PSH).
PSH is Bill Ackman's closed end fund. It trades at a discount, at James thinks Ackman is on the verge of taking steps that will both increase net asset value and shrink the discount.
James' Twitter: https://twitter.com/jameselbaor
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:25 PSH Overview
11:50 Why would a U.S. listing close the NAV gap?
20:20 What could PSH buy to relist in the U.S.?
22:55 How does PSH fund an acquisition?
24:55 Responding to the Ackman Blow Up Risk
27:30 PSH's management fees and the discount
32:20 Why has PSH's leverage come down this year?
38:30 Discussing PSH's "macro" trades
42:30 The interest rate swaption
46:30 PSH's current portfolio
52:30 How PSH will evolve over time
56:30 PSH's dividend
1:01:30 A little more on a potential relisting
Jon Boyar returns to the podcast to talk about his investment thesis for MSGS and MSGE, including why he thinks investors are underrating James Dolan and just how wide their discount to asset value has become.
You can find more on the Fresh Looks here: https://boyarresearch.myshopify.com/products/2022-opportunity-issue-edition-with-bonus-content?utm_content=216760092&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&hss_channel=tw-963533512887406593
Chapters
0:00 Intro
3:45 MSG History
8:10 Do the Dolan's actually create value for minority shareholders?
13:15 MSGS SOTP
15:55 Can someone actually write a check for the Knicks
21:15 What happens when the NBA rights renew?
24:20 Could the Knicks and Rangers backstop a new Garden at some point?
29:30 MSGE spin overview
31:10 Why not do a full spin at MSGE?
33:20 MSGE bull thesis (SOTP) versus bear thesis (Sphere)
37:00 How bad was the MSGN deal
40:15 Sports betting
47:00 What are the Rockettes worth?
49:20 Will James Dolan actually sell the team?
53:30 Please don't trade for Donovan Mitchell
Andrew Carreon, founder of Emeth Value, discusses his thesis on Diversified Energy (DEC; trades in London). Key points include how the company can get such good deals on acquisitions, if the company has an edge in handling asset retirement obligations, and why the company pays such a big dividend.
My bull thesis on DEC: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/p/tegus-sponsored-deep-dive-4-natural-198
Andrew's first podcast appearance on BSM: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1402967314233008129?s=20&t=8N1sKfcgkx0mbRjNkJxL6w
Bloomberg article on DEC: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-20/gas-producer-diversified-energy-said-emissions-fell-now-it-says-they-didn-t
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:15 DEC overview
9:45 How is DEC getting such good deals from sophisticated sellers
17:10 Hs the current energy environment changed the ESG market for energy?
19:30 DEC's route density model and acquisition synergies
27:30 Asset Retirement Obligations (ARO)
43:55 Even more on AROs
54:00 Is DEC just kicking the ARO can down the road?
58:20 Discussing the "Bloomberg" article
1:06:40 Does DEC have a regulatory edge in handling AROs?
1:09:10 Why is DEC paying out a big dividend instead of buying back shares?
1:15:45 Comparing the opportunity cost of DEC to BSM
Chris DeMuth returns to the podcast to talk about what's on his mind in the markets this month, including updates on TWTR, the IS / U / APP love triangle, and Rio's "failed" bid for TRQ.
0:00 Intro
2:10 Overview
3:45 What's happening with TWTR
26:10 IS / U / APP love triangle
45:00 Rio / TRQ
Tulane Law Professor Ann Lipton and Fintwit personality Compound248 discuss the latest in Twitter’s lawsuit against Elon Musk. Note that we dive directly into all the nuisances of the trial; for more background on how we got here and what’s at stake you can listen to my podcast from May with Evan Tindell.
My May pod with Evan on TWTR: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1529452942931238914?s=20&t=7yi3kr0wvPY0nduenfVdSA
Professor Lipton's Twitter: https://twitter.com/AnnMLipton
Compound's Twitter: https://twitter.com/compound248
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:40 Overall case thoughts to date
6:40 Will Elon's "unclean hands" prevent him from breaking the deal?
9:05 Is Specific Performance the right remedy here?
12:30 How Musk's tweets are undercutting his own case
16:30 Can the court see to the heart of the mDAU arguments?
26:00 The looming discovery fight
28:05 What can we read into the judge's actions so far?
30:30 The timeline for resolution if this goes to trial and appeal
36:15 What happens if TWTR has an MAE between now and court resolution?
38:30 Why is Musk referencing Texas law?
48:10 Is the India lawsuit an ordinary course breach?
50:05 Does Elon waiving due diligence have any impact on the case?
53:15 Elon's consent rights
55:55 Does how the contract evolved overtime matter?
56:30 Does Elon continuing to add to his counterclaims impact his credibility?
58:30 A little more on mDAUs
1:00:45 Elon's threat to start a competitor in the merger negotiation
1:02:25 The billion dollar damages cap
1:08:45 Financing tail risk
1:12:15 Odds of a settlement
David Bastion from Kingdom Capital discusses his bull thesis for Unit Corp (UNTC).
David's UNTC write up: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4503262-unit-corporation-heads-win-tails-dont-lose
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:30 UNTC overview
5:00 Discussing UNTC's sale process
11:20 Thoughts on UNTC's prelim Q2 numbers
14:45 What is the market missing with UNTC?
18:00 What is UNTC's major shareholder thinking?
23:20 Why did the Gulf assets sell for such a discount?
27:15 Can UNTC increase their production?
30:15 UNTC's drilling / rig segment
33:30 Valuing drilling
38:15 Midstream's value
46:15 Discussing capital allocation / returns
49:20 UNTC's warrants
52:40 UNTC's SOTP
1:01:00 Generalists in energy
Chris DeMuth returns to the podcast to talk about what's on his mind in the markets this month, including updates on TWTR, the state of antitrust, and the opportunity set in squeeze outs.
0:00 Intro
2:45 Markets Overview
4:25 Sanderson Farms (SAFM)
8:00 Majority owned companies and squeeze outs
10:40 CLR update and energy companies
21:55 Energy companies now versus Tobacco in the 80s
26:10 TWTR update
28:50 Review of the TWTR expedited hearing
35:25 Will Twitter win specific performance if they win the trial?
40:20 Thoughts on TWTR's complaint and Elon's response
46:30 Was Elon's attempt to break the deal now bad strategy?
52:45 TWTR wrap up
PJ Kurzweil, founder of PJ's SMID Cap Ideas, comes on the podcast to discuss his write up on Spectrum Brands (SPB). Spectrum is currently in the process of selling their HHI business, and whether that deal goes through or not PJ thinks the stock is too cheap given the quality of their brands / businesses.
My notes on SPB: https://twitter.com/YetAnotherValue/status/1547219565016453121?s=20&t=n_liDehcIwWBLmo0x51NLQ
PJ's SPB write up: https://philippejkurzweil.substack.com/p/spectrum-brands-hard-catalysts-to
Chapter
0:00 Intro
2:10 SPB overview
4:55 Why is SPB interesting right now?
7:30 What's going on with the HHI sale?
13:00 HSI's HSR process
17:30 What happens if the HSI deal falls through?
24:00 HPC's value
31:20 Inflation's impact on SPB
33:30 Did pets and garden benefit too much from COVID pull forward?
37:00 Are millennials a tail wind going forward?
40:20 SPB's pet brands
45:50 What drives SPB's near term earnings growth?
48:00 Is SPB underspending on ad spend?
50:00 SPB versus CENT
55:00 Capital allocation at SPB
Jeremy Raper of rapercapital.com makes his record 7th podcast appearance to discuss a host of event driven situations.
Jeremy's letter to EVO: https://rapercapital.com/2022/07/03/an-open-letter-to-the-board-of-evolve-education-group/
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:45 What's the current environment like?
9:20 SHLX
19:00 TRQ
34:00 SAVE
43:00 VTNR
58:30 CLMT
1:19:30 Wrapping up with HRBR and FAR
Conor Maguire, founder of valuesits, discusses why he thinks SOL Group is a Buffett-like stock trading at an attractive multiple with the possibility of a private equity takeout over the next five years.
Conor's SOL write up: https://valuesits.substack.com/p/deep-breath-deep-value
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:50 SOL overview
4:50 What is the market missing with SOL?
9:00 Why a private equity firm would like SOL
14:55 Would regulators be ok with a private equity deal for SOL?
18:10 Why would the family want to sell SOL?
23:10 Diving into the technical gas business
25:20 How does Europe's nat gas crisis impact SOL?
29:20 What's the long term obsolesce risk for SOL?
33:20 SOL's carbon capture call option
38:15 SOL's home care business
43:20 SOL's emerging businesses
49:30 What else is Conor seeing in the market?
Chris DeMuth returns to the podcast to discuss the state of the markets in June 2022.
Chris's May 2022 state of the markets episode: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...
Chris's golden age of arb posts: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4519...
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:50 What's on Chris's mind
3:35 Wide spreads and CTXS
8:15 PLAN's recut
16:15 Do investors over or underestimate how much PE firms care about their reputation?
22:45 How strong are bank financing agreements in rocky markets?
26:40 Other golden age of arb candidates
29:15 State of the energy market
32:00 CLR's take private bid
39:05 Updated TWTR thoughts
50:40 Closing thoughts and crypto markets
Brian Laks, partner at Old West Invest Management, discusses the bull case for Tin and why he thinks the world's largest tin miner, Alphamin, could present an alpha opportunityi.
Brian's first appearance on Uranium and NXE: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1434879061961019396?s=20
Tin market bull case video mentioned: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Ro8uCD10-w
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:20 Tin market overview
4:00 What drives the structural increase in tin prices?
7:25 Is there an alternative for tin?
13:25 Tin supply dynamics
20:20 What would it take to bring new tin mines on?
24:40 Marginal cost of tin supply
30:30 Why is today's tin price right versus 2019's?
35:15 Alphamin overview
41:10 Alphamin's expansion project
44:50 The strategic review process
52:00 Capital allocation and Alphamin's dividend
58:45 Tin's terminal value versus coal
1:01:30 Could China buy Alphamin?
1:07:00 What happens if Alphamin doesn't sell?
1:12:40 Why is the strategic review taking so long?
1:16:15 Closing thoughts
Doug Olaughlin, founder of fabricated knowledge, comes on the podcast to talk about the semiconductor space in general and then dive into his thesis on Rambus (RMBS) and why the market might be missing their big growth call option.
Fabricated knowledge website: https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com
Doug's RMBS thesis: https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/p/a-pure-play-on-datacenter-memory?s=w
Chapters
0:00 Intro
3:00 Why semis are so compelling
4:10 What's driving the auto / semi shortage
6:55 What Doug's seeing in the semi world
11:30 Why generalists struggle with semis
15:15 Where are we in the semi-cycle right now?
21:30 Separating semi inventory issues from long term supply coming on
31:45 How fragile is the semi supply chain
39:40 Does a crypto winter impact semis?
44:40 Diving into RMBS
56:00 What Doug is seeing the market is missing
58:30 How sustainable is RMBS's FCF?
1:02:30 Why is insider ownership so awful here?
1:06:30 RMBS's acquisition program
1:08:05 Will RMBS really own CXL?
1:14:30 closing thoughts
PJ Kurzweil, founder of PJ's SMID Cap Ideas, comes on the podcast to discuss his write up on Brunswick (BC). BC is a boat manufacturer, and PJ thinks they are too cheap and the market is missing how much more economically resilient the business is today than it was ~10 years ago.
My BC notes: https://twitter.com/YetAnotherValue/status/1529822951016497153?s=20&t=lAssCowdwRLleeF1c1ZVEw
PJ's BC write up: https://philippejkurzweil.substack.com/p/brunswick-corporation-1-pager-summary?r=1g9l5j&s=w&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Chapters
0:00 Intro
3:25 BC overview
5:15 What is PJ seeing in BC that the market's missing?
8:50 Is BC about to run into COVID pull forward headwinds?
13:25 Sizing the boat market
16:20 BC's recession risk
20:10 BC's P&A business and recurring revenue
26:00 Capital allocation and M&A multiples
30:20 BC's vertically integrated model: advantage or overblown?
33:50 BC's Freedom Boat Club optionality
38:45 Share buybacks and insider ownership
42:30 BC's improving free cash flow
45:15 Is BC bringing capacity on right as demand falls off?
47:30 Interest rate, inflation, and financing risks
51:15 Rising gas prices effect on boat demand
54:20 Vontier (VNT) and closing thoughts
Michael Fritzell, founder of Asian Century Stocks, goes through his thesis on T. Hasegawa. T. Hasegawa trades at a huge discount to its domestic peers like IFF despite similar or better growth and margins, and Michael thinks some recent changes and shareholder pressure could set the company up to rerate.
Michael's T. Hasegawa write up: https://www.asiancenturystocks.com/p/deep-dive-2022-8-t-hasegawa?s=w
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:25 T. Hasegawa overview
6:45 Why fragrance and flavors are so sticky
9:35 T. Hasegawa's small cost to large value
15:25 What is Michael seeing that the market is missing in T. Hasegawa
17:30 Are continued lockdowns a risk to the business?
19:00 What do you need to believe for T. Hasegawa to continue to grow?
20:55 Why will T. Hasegawa realize value from their Chinese investments?
22:40 Is T. Hasegawa the classic Japanese value trap?
26:45 Are acquisitions a good capital allocation decision here?
32:50 T. Hasegawa closing thoughts
34:30 What countries does Michael think are most attractive currently?
Evan Tindell, CIO of Bireme Capital, discusses the circus that is the Elon Musk and Twitter merger agreement and explains why he thinks Delaware law and precedent suggest Elon would lose in court and be forced to close the merger on terms.
My piece on Twitter: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/p/twitter-the-circus-will-have-a-happy?s=w
This podcast was taped afternoon of May 23; things are moving quickly so just time stamping that!
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:15 Twitter overview
6:45 Why bot followers do not equal mDAUs
8:00 Why is Twitter mispriced right now?
12:40 Specific performance versus the $1 billion break fee
18:30 Defining a material adverse event (MAE)
26:25 The LVMH / TIF parallels
30:00 Why Elon should avoid going to court in Delaware
35:45 Could Elon actually get out of this deal on a bot miscount?
38:25 Does Elon waiving DD hurt him in a potential court case?
42:35 How risky will discovery be for Twitter?
46:55 Elon's financing risk / what price does the TSLA margin call happen?
50:15 Can Elon walk if Tesla stock blows up?
53:40 Will TWTR's board fold?
1:01:00 What if Elon losses and still refuses to perform?
1:03:45 Potential for an activist like Carl Icahn to get involved
1:06:00 Why a mediation and slight price cut might be the most likely outcome
1:09:50 What's the downside if Twitter loses?
1:13:00 Event path odds
Ales Morris, founder of The Science of Hitting, returns to the podcast to discuss all things media, including his investment in Disney and Netflix.
Alex's first podcast appearance on Spotify: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1388122956837097482?s=20
Alex's / TSOH substack: https://thescienceofhitting.com
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:55 What's going on in media?
6:15 What is the market missing with its media bearishness?
8:45 Is media too competitive to invest in?
14:35 Why is Netflix having a problem with breakout hits?
18:30 Can you trust these companies when they say "trust us"?
20:30 Is it true that Alex is a Marvel hater?
22:30 NFLX's move into ad supported
30:05 NFLX's (and the industry's) rising churn
35:00 Why is DIS bundling when everyone else is consolidating into one product?
38:05 Why hasn't Seinfeld broken out on NFLX?
42:30 ESPN's streaming future
49:00 Can you really make a profit streaming sports?
54:15 Is Marvel fatigue real?
58:50 Disney parks
1:01:50 Opportunity cost of investing in DIS vs NFLX vs CMCSA (or something else)
1:06:35 Berkshire buying Paramount
Luis Sanchez, founder of LVS Advisory, discusses his bull case for Endor AG, including why competitors can't recreate their product and how they benefit from the current boom in motor sports like F1 and NASCAR.
My notes on Endor: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1526577674801520642?s=20&t=wqYSVMYKfG3kx8M9qhkB9w
Luis's MOI pitch: https://twitter.com/LuisVSanchez777/status/1524707206574321666
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:20 Endor Overview
14:40 Where is Luis most divergent from the market on Endor?
24:15 How frequently do people upgrade?
27:30 Why isn't Endor the typical COVID beneficiary about to fall off a cliff?
36:00 How the current motor sport boom helps Endor
42:00 Endor's valuation
52:00 Endor's long term margin potential
56:00 Endor's move into lower end products
1:02:40 Luis's closing thoughts
Chris DeMuth returns to the podcast for a new monthly segment talking about the current state of the markets
My note on event driven situations; https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/p/weekend-thoughts-the-rich-set-of?s=w
My note on energy companies: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/p/when-are-the-activists-and-pe-funds?s=w
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:55 Chris's state of the markets
11:05 KSS
16:40 The regulatory environment and its impact on deals
22:15 ATVI / MSFT
28:50 TWTR and Elon Musk
39:00 Commodity / energy stocks disconnect from strip pricing
Bill Chen makes his second podcast appearance to discuss Clipper Realty (CLPR). Clipper owns a bunch of NYC apartment buildings, and Bill thinks the current boom in apartment rentals will drive strong returns for the company going forward.
Bill's first podcast appearance: https://yetanothervaluepodcast.substack.com/p/bill-chen-breaks-down-frphs-sotp?utm_source=url
0:00 Intro
2:05 CLPR overview
4:35 Where is Bill most differentiated on CLPR?
8:20 How does the post-COVID NYC apartment boom help CLPR?
14:15 CLPR's leverage and balance sheet
16:45 Why CLPR over SLG or another similar REIT?
20:30 Are the long term trends against NYC?
28:00 Rent control in NYC
34:50 Why do people have cable companies and their landlords?
39:30 CLPR and inflation
41:10 "Regulatory inflation" and NYC's moat
43:30 CLPR's controlling family
47:15 Discussing cap rate environment for NYC apartment
49:40 CLPR's development projects and potential value creation
53:40 The safety of CLPR
1:00:00 Bill makes me feel bad about my shoebox apartment
In this special bonus episode, Randy Baron provides updates on his prior podcast appearances on RNLX and AMRS.
Randy's appearance on GDS: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1517512427071545346?s=20&t=UyPsEybQEnbnE9riOPd5yQ
Randy's appearance on AMRS: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1407669290241777666?s=20
Randy's appearance on RNLX: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1448604500009242632?s=20
Chapters
0:00 Intro
0:45 RNLX update
4:05 AMRS update
9:45 AMRS's November convert raise: good or bad?
15:15 Valuing AMRS's consumer brands
20:20 Should AMRS just be focusing on consumer brands?
25:15 AMRS capital needs going forward
28:40 AMRS's management comp and shareholder alignment
One of the people's favorite guests, Randy Baron, returns to the podcast to talk about his thesis for GDS. GDS is a Chinese data center company, and Randy goes in depth into the company, including why their tier 1 footprint gives them a moat, how GDS is trading at a discount to private market values, and why ADR and VIE fears may be overblown.
My notes on GDS: https://twitter.com/YetAnotherValue/status/1516805266565644289?s=20&t=_7FcaMp4YYgZ1S4htJXz6g
Randy's first podcast on AMRS: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1407669290241777666?s=20
Randy's second podcast on RNLX: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1448604500009242632?s=20
Tubes (data center book mentioned in the pod): https://amzn.to/3rKUxRq
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:20 Data Center Overview
9:10 Chinese Data Center overview
11:20 Randy's history with GDS
17:45 GDS valuation versus private market comps
24:00 What does Randy see in GDS that the market is missing?
28:45 GDS's international expansion plans
34:00 Why does GDS's tier 1 footprint give them a moat?
39:50 GDS's M&A and growth ambitions
47:30 GDS's recent raise from Sequoia China and peer VNET's acquisition offer
52:15 The China ADR and VIE issues
58:55 Wrapping up the GDS thesis
Andrew Wagner, CIO of Wagner Road Capital Management, discusses his thesis on Copart (CPRT).
My Copart (CPRT) notes; https://twitter.com/YetAnotherValue/status/1514627334464323589?s=20&t=yjNrQXKvqPrQdJZ_Z00Tdw
Andrew's post on Copart: https://www.wagnerroadcm.com/blog/2022/4/8/what-i-like-about-copart-and-how-i-found-it
Andrew's Book: The Economics of Online Games: https://amzn.to/3KNkAPn
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:05 How Andrew found CPRT
5:30 What is the market missing in CPRT?
9:20 What does CPRT do?
11:00 What is CPRT's moat?
13:25 Does CPRT's network advantages give them an edge in expansion?
15:00 Bear case #1: Valuation
16:30 Bear case #2: COVID earnings boost
18:50 Bear case #3: Why isn't CPRT buying back shares?
23:30 Why is CPRT so much better than IAA?
25:30 CPRT's management
27:45 CPRT's land ownership
33:15 CPRT's international operations
35:20 Does CPRT's moat travel internationally?
38:55 Ancillary services opportunity
43:15 CPRT's long term tailwinds from "totaled" cars
47:00 Do EVs change CPRT's economics?
49:30 Car ownership trends and CPRT
Bob Robotti, founder of Robotti Advisors, discusses his thesis on Westlake Corporation (WLK) and why he thinks "old economy" stocks are poised for a comeback.
My notes on WLK: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1513885052974899200?s=20&t=QiY-1L2H5U3GZ-S5YjGFww
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:50 WLK Overview
6:10 Diving into WLK's segments and products
10:45 WLK's favorable supply demand dynamics
14:40 WLK's valuation
18:55 WLK's control shareholders and family ownership
22:15 How can WLK acquire so accretively?
28:00 WLK's capital allocation
31:45 Do WLK's segments make sense together?
39:00 Why buy WLK versus peers?
41:40 BLDR and the building products distributors
44:45 Why "don't buy cyclicals at the top" might be wrong today
51:00 What happens if tech stocks stumble / Revenge of the old economy
Conor Maguire, founder of Value Sits, discusses his thesis on Wickes (WIX:LSE). Wickes is a cheap retailer that Conor thinks is both recession resistant and suffering from typical post-spin dynamics.
My notes on WIX: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1511702344022609922?s=20&t=2lChWyeIhR6HZWw938bR8Q
Conor's write up: https://valuesits.substack.com/p/wickes-group-plc-wixln?s=w
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:55 Wickes Overview
5:25 WIX value proposition and customer base
10:25 Amazon risk
12:00 WIX valuation
15:15 WIX and the death of retail narrative
18:10 Opportunity cost of WIX versus other retailers
20:45 Spin-off dynamics
21:55 Are the spin-off dynamics real?
24:55 Does being independent accelerate WIX growth?
28:05 The economics of store refits
31:25 Management incentives
34:05 WIX downside protection
35:05 Do you read anything into WIX installer poor reviews?
39:35 WIX Trade Pro side
42:15 WIX digital sales
44:15 Upcoming de-merger costs
48:10 Other situations on Conor's radar
49:10 Discussing DOLE
51:20 Kenmare Resources
Swen Lorenz, founder of https://www.undervalued-shares.com, discusses his thesis on IWG. IWG owns a variety of co-working brands that compete with WeWork, and Swen believes IWG's scale, cheap valuation, and variety of catalysts makes them a terrific value investment.
Note: We had some connectivity issues on Swen's side during the podcast; I tried to edit the best I could but ultimately it was either release as is or not at all! Hopefully it's not too much of a bother!
My IWG Notes: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1509521982953558024?s=20&t=qUBbtL3_y1G8geiQ4tIFdA
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:15 IWG Overview
3:00 IWG versus WeWork
6:00 IWG's scale
11:00 How valuable is a network for co-work spaces?
16:20 Why does IWG's multi-brand model make more sense than WeWork's one brand?
18:55 IWG's burgeoning franchise model
25:20 The recovery from COVID
29:00 IWG's pandemic performance
33:00 IWG's growth plans
36:00 IWG's tech acquisition and spin off plans
41:30 Why has IWG been hit so much harder than office-space peers?
Tim Weber, a private investor, returns to the podcast to provide an update on the $AMPY thesis and then discuss his double dog index, why it's been crushing the market so far this year, and his outlook for the dogs from here.
Twebs double dog post: https://twebs.substack.com/p/introducing-the-double-dog-index?r=f389n&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&s=r
Note that there was a slight delay on Tim's end with the audio; I don't think it's a huge issue but wanted to assure you you are not going crazy if you hear a slight delay!
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:55 AMPY Update
12:15 AMPY going forward
19:15 The potential Eagle Ford sale and what it means of AMPY's PV-10
24:05 AMPY's "generalist risk"
26:45 Beta's California risk
30:30 AMPY closing thoughts
33:50 Discussing the double dogs index
36:30 The United Steel (X) example
42:10 What double dogs does Tim think are most attractive right now?
47:20 Does the rush into the commodity space worry Tim?
51:00 Should we be looking at broken growth instead of deep value right now?
Chris Colvin returns to the podcast to discuss why he invested in Houghton Mifflin Harcourt (HMHC) and why he thinks the deal to sell HMHC to Veritas is much too cheap.
Breach Inlet's letter to HMHC: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220223005845/en/Breach-Inlet-Capital-Sends-Public-Letter-to-Board-of-Houghton-Mifflin-Harcourt
My notes on HMHC: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1503704685861273604?s=20&t=BJwJj9NIUfEf4nip2Hlf4w
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:15 HMHC Overview
6:45 Situation Recap
9:00 Why does Chris believe this deal is too cheap?
13:05 HMHC's strange forecast and massive revision
19:35 HMHC's advisors conflict of interest
22:55 Why did management and the board chose to sell the company now?
28:00 HMHC's roll up potential
31:25 Veritas's other edtech plays
33:35 How does this play out from here?
34:05 What if the tender fails and Veritas walks away?
49:00 Did HMHC's projections undersell the stimulus money impact?
51:00 Closing thoughts
Louis Camhi provides an update on his thesis for ORGN and then walks through where he's finding opportunities in the SPAC market today.
Louis's first podcast appearance: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1428710432848613377?s=20
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:45 Origin Update
5:55 Origin today versus their SPAC projections
8:45 When will we start seeing unit economics for ORGN plants?
12:55 Talking about the SPAC market today
17:30 Opportunities in current SPAC IPOs
21:30 What pre-deal SPACs does Louis like currently?
23:20 What to make of companies that are flying after the deSPAC
27:30 Are pre-deal SPAC warrants attractive right now?
36:45 CND / Circle
45:40 What to make of deals like FMAC that reward shareholders for not redeeming?
49:00 SPACs with rights like BENE and ESSC
Jeremy Raper returns to the podcast to discuss his recent semi-activism at FAR Ltd. FAR recently received a bid that Jeremy thinks dramatically undervalues the company, so Jeremy is pressuring the company to cut costs and aggressively return capital to shareholders.
My tweet thread on FAR: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1496863885122539520?s=20&t=UK4pHbZdyRecEFP_I46_UQ
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:50 FAR overview
7:20 Recapping the valuation case
13:10 Acquirer optionality at FAR
16:45 FAR's historical mismanagement
23:10 What put FAR in play
31:00 Jeremy's proposal for FAR
36:45 What if management goes scorched earth here?
48:40 Closing FAR thoughts
50:15 LastMinute (LMN) discussion
Bill Chen, an institutional real estate investor, goes through his thesis for FRPH. FRPH is a conservatively managed real estate company with a great management team and a history of growing NAV and monetizing assets at opportunistic times.
You can find all my writings here: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack....
My notes on FRPH: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...
A rough SOTP for FRPH: https://twitter.com/RhizomePartners/s...
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:20 FRPH overview
3:30 Discussing FRPH's management team / majority shareholder
8:00 Understanding the royalty business
14:15 Valuing the royalty business
21:20 FRPH's balance sheet and net cash
22:15 FRPH's real estate value
32:00 Pulling the SOTP together
33:45 Opportunity cost and alpha at FRPH
39:25 FRPH's history of selling assets
40:30 How is FRPH still acquiring warehouse plays?
43:00 Why FRPH versus other REITs under NAV?
47:10 FRPH versus SRG
52:00 Why isn't FRPH buying shares right now?
57:00 What keeps Bill up at night for FRPH?
1:02:30 Closing thoughts
Jon Boyar from the Boyar Value Group returns to the podcast to discuss his high conviction thesis for Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG). SMG was a massive COVID beneficiary, and shares have sold off in kind with other COVID beneficiaries. Jon thinks the market is too pessimistic here, SMG's brands have Coke like market share, and the company has a rapidly growing "picks and shovels" cannabis business that he believes investors are basically getting for free at current prices
You can find all my writings here: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/
My notes on SMG: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1489600380854013952?s=20&t=c24bhjV0UhOWlZWjgULoCw
Boyar's interview w/ SMG's CEO: https://www.boyarvaluegroup.com/podcasts/james-hagedorn-scotts-miracle-gro-chief-executive-officer-and-chairman-of-the-board-on-the-tremendous-opportunity-in-the-cannabis-space-potentially-spinning-off-the-fast-growing-hawthorne-division/
Boyar's SMG overview: https://www.lp.boyarvaluegroup.com/smg2021
Boyar's Forgotten Forty: https://www.lp.boyarvaluegroup.com/andrewwalker
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:35 SMG Overview
5:50 Why are SMG's brands so dominant?
9:50 Customer concentration risk for SMG
11:55 What happens to earnings as they lapse the "COVID boom"?
17:50 Discussing Hawthorne
21:30 What is Hawthorne's moat?
24:45 Federal legalization and Hawthorne's sales distribution
27:40 Why is Hawthorne's growth slowing right now?
29:45 Hawthorne's cannabis investment strategy
34:00 How SMG got into Hawthorne and look at it long term
36:20 Breaking down SMG's SOTP
40:00 The rationale for a potential Hawthorne spin
45:40 Closing SMG thoughts
48:25 Other interesting forgotten 40 names
Rich Howe, founder of stock spinoff investing, walks through the bull case for NXDT. NXDT is a closed end fund trading at a huge discount to NAV; the fund is planning to transition to a REIT and Rich thinks that makes the stock very catalyst rich. A related company, NXRT, pursued a similar move ~6 years ago and their stock has gone up ~6x since.
You can find all my writings here: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/
My thread on NXDT: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1488504533709991943?s=20&t=1i5ngJavxgKCHeNtsTWz1A
Rich's twitter: https://twitter.com/stockspinoffss
Stock Spinoff Investing: https://stockspinoffinvesting.com/premium/
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:40 NXDT overview
6:55 Insider buying
9:45 NXRT parallels
12:00 NXDT's discount to NAV
13:10 NXDT's level 3 assets and their valuation
16:45 Vinebrook homes, one of NXDT's holdings
24:30 Why has NXDT's NAV discount widened?
27:10 NXDT investing into controlled entities
31:30 What is NXDT's post-REIT strategy?
34:30 Why is it taking so long to switch to a REIT?
37:50 Will NXDT buyback shares?
40:00 NXDT's fees
43:30 Post-REIT dividend policy
47:55 Closing NXDT thoughts
50:00 Rich's favorite recent spin: JXN
55:00 BHC: the spin Rich is looking forward to the most
Josh Young, CIO of Bison Investments, discusses his thoughts on the oil market and why he thinks energy prices are going much higher. Then he dives into his thesis for Journey Energy (JOY CN in Canada), a micro cap Canadian company that he thinks is dramatically undervalued.
You can find all my writings here: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/
Josh's Twitter: https://twitter.com/Josh_Young_1
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:45 How Josh is thinking about the oil market today
6:30 When do you know oil is high enough?
10:25 Why aren't we seeing a big capex / opex ramp up from oil companies?
15:45 OPEC's lack of incremental capacity
19:35 Is calling for higher oil Big Short 2.0?
24:50 Why the oil market today is not the oil market from 2014
28:50 Small technical difficulty!
31:10 Why $100+ oil won't sap demand
34:30 What do energy specialists look for that generalists miss?
37:15 Do generalists lean towards worse assets than specialists?
40:00 Journey Energy overview
45:20 Breaking down Journey's SOTP
48:15 Journey's growth and decline profile
50:00 How are Journey's base assets positioned?
53:30 What oil and gas price is baked into Journey currently?
54:10 Journey's power plant initiative
57:20 What type of power is Journey's power plant?
58:50 Journey's Asset Retirement Obligations
1:06:35 Closing thoughts on Journey
Keith Smith, Portfolio Manager at Bonhoeffer Capital, discusses his thesis for Millicom ($TIGO). TIGO is trading at a super low multiple and a recent deal that the CEO described as a "no brainer" will result in a rights offering for TIGO, which could set the stock up as a special situation as well. Keith breaks down why he likes TIGO versus other telecom stocks, why he thinks the stock is so cheap, and the hidden value potential at TIGO money.
You can find all my writings here: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack....
My notes on TIGO: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...
Keith's twitter: https://twitter.com/Bonhoeffer_KDS
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:20 TIGO overview
4:30 How TIGO's ownership culture sets them apart
8:30 TIGO background
11:50 More on TIGO's culture and their CHTR like model
15:55 Why TIGO over other telecoms like LILAK or LUMN?
23:30 TIGO money, TIGO's big fintech call option
31:00 Discussing TIGO's largest market, Guatemala
36:00 Breaking down TIGO's rights offering
43:00 Is TIGO's equity focused culture a red flag?
46:05 A mini-rant on Liberty's management compensation
48:40 Could TIGO be a perennial value trap?
54:20 LILAK's 2019 bid for TIGO: value marker or red flag?
58:30 Keith's closing TIGO thoughts
1:02:30 Bonus discussion on broadcasters like NXST
Vadim Perelman goes through his thesis on Basic-Fit (BFIT) and why he thinks it could be a ~10x in ~10 years. Key topics include a detailed walk through the unit economics and why competitors won’t be able to open new gyms once the company “fortresses” their markets.
My notes on BFIT: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...
Vadim's BFIT write up: https://punchcardstocks.substack.com/...
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:00 BFIT intro
6:55 The key BFIT question: is 30%+ ROIC sustainable for gyms
15:00 Why winning the "land grab" precludes competitors in local markets
20:55 How BFIT's scale gives them a cost advantage
25:00 Quick mentions of BFIT's marketing and rent advantages
30:00 Comping BFIT's costs to UK low cost peers
32:50 Why aren't we seeing a faster land share grab by competitors?
40:15 Why isn't BFIT pursuing a franchise model?
46:55 Could BFIT's ROIC go higher over time as penetration goes up?
51:35 What bear cases does Vadim worry about?
56:35 Store aging risk / underinvesting in MCX
59:45 How BFIT uses their scale to bring down employee costs and create a moat
1:05:15 Closing thoughts
Chris DeMuth discusses his best idea for 2022, RENN. RENN was on a previous podcast pitched by Ian Bezek as a legal play; since then, RENN settled with minority shareholders for a record payout. However, in December, RENN's shares sold off massively as a judge rejected their proposed settlement with minority shareholders and ruled the payout should instead go to former shareholders; Chris explains why he thinks that ruling is wrong and likely to be overturned.
Podcast with Ian Bezek on RENN from April 2021: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...
Chris's article on RENN: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4478529-renren-is-so-bad-its-good
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:50 RENN background
4:20 What's happened since the last RENN podcast
8:20 The settlement announcement in October
12:35 What happens in December / why the stock craters
19:45 Why are current shareholders appealing the judge's ruling?
24:00 What does a derivative suit mean and why is that important?
30:00 Were there any precedents for former shareholders getting the settlement payout?
35:30 Discussing the unique minority shareholder only payout
38:50 Could the settlement be recut to pay directly to the company?
44:50 What does the timeline going forward look like?
46:30 What happens to the "excess legal fees"?
54:30 Why a quick decision on the appeal could be good
57:35 What odds does Chris give for the appeal winning?
1:00:10 Bear push back: The Sprint / TMUS precedent
1:05:40 Closing thoughts
SHOW LESS
In Part 2 of this two part podcast, Jacob Rubin discusses his thesis for GLNG, including why the company trades at a huge discount to its SOTP and why an upcoming spin can delever the core business and serve as a catalyst for the company.
Part 1 of the podcast on FTAI: https://yetanothervaluepodcast.substack.com/p/podcast-87-jacob-rubin-is-flying
My notes on GLNG: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1471134280906682371?s=20
Jacob's research on GLNG: http://philosophycap.com/research.html
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:35 GLNG overview
5:55 GLNG's different pieces
10:30 Discussing GLNG debt and convert maturity
13:10 Focusing on the main value driver, FLNG
22:00 GLNG's growth asset, Gimi
24:45 GLNG SOTP math
27:05 Why is the market sleeping on the current environment for GLNG?
29:45 Capital allocation and GLNG's lack of share buyback
34:55 Historical issues with shipping in general
37:30 Closing thoughts
In Part 1 of this two part podcast, Jacob Rubin returns to the podcast. We start by wrapping up his prior podcast appearance on ESGC, and then we move into discussing FTAI and why he thinks the stock is dramatically undervalued and an upcoming spinoff could unlock significant value.
My FTAI notes: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1470841498048634885?s=20
Jacob's first podcast appearance: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1366760857590521861?s=20
Jacob's research on FTAI: http://philosophycap.com/research.html
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:20 ESGC follow up
10:15 FTAI overview
16:00 How a spinoff and eliminating K-1's could catalyze FTAI
22:05 FTAI's aerospace segment
32:05 The upside from FTAI's parts manufacturing
36:55 Is engine leasing really a good business?
45:30 Discussing FTAI's external management structure
50:30 FTAI's infrastructure segment
52:05 FTAI's management team
54:20 More on FTAI's different infrastructure assets
Kuppy comes on the show to discuss his recent activism at LEE and why he thinks the stock is dramatically undervalued.
My notes on LEE: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...
Kuppy's LEE thesis: https://adventuresincapitalism.com/20...
KEDM: https://www.kedm.com/what-is-kedm/
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:00 LEE Overview
7:55 Why does Kuppy think Alden's LEE offer is so undervalued?
12:35 Why does small town, local news offer a moat?
17:30 Is LEE's digital growth real or is it just small base effect?
20:20 Can the LEE team execute the growth / digital opportunity?
30:15 Why did Berkshire sell their newspaper to LEE if the growth is so attractive?
35:40 Is TownNews a hidden gem?
40:00 What other levers can LEE pull to juice growth?
42:15 Online gambling upside for newspapers
44:30 Valuing LEE"s digital side
51:20 Why are papers like Tribune selling if the outlook for digital is so good?
53:35 Closing thoughts
Chris McIntyre returns to the podcast to discuss his belief that MSGE is a cheap stock. Key topics include how to look at the Sphere, why the Dolans might not be as bad as you think, and why he thinks the company will gush free cash flow once the Sphere is completed.
My notes on MSGE: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1469002333908606979?s=20
Chris's website / presentation on MSGE: https://msgeisacheapstock.com/presi.html
My podcast with Jon Boyar on the awful MSGE / MSGN deal: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1379040448149356546?s=20
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:30 MSGE overview
4:45 The elephant in the room: should MSGE get a "Dolan Discount?"
9:30 Discussing The Sphere
14:25 The cost escalation history of the Sphere
27:10 What's the outlook for RSNs in general and MSGN in particular?
30:30 Why was combining MSGN with MSGE the right move?
33:30 Valuing MSGN given the turmoil in RSNs
36:55 How does MSGN transition to a D2C world?
41:50 More on MSGN's value
50:05 What does the income statement look like as MSGN transitions?
59:55 Valuing Tao and The Rockettes
1:03:20 Valuing the Garden
1:08:35 Closing thoughts and a quick SOTP
Sleepwell Capital and Enlightened Capital discuss their thesis for Ally $ALLY. Ally trades for just over book value despite posting ROEs well in excess of their cost of capital; Sleep and Enlightened both believe their valuable deposit franchise, reasonable valuation, and share repurchase program will combine to produce attractive returns for shareholders over the next few years.
My notes on ALLY: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1467960317242134537?s=20
Enlightened's twitter: https://twitter.com/Cultivatewealth
Sleep's twitter: https://twitter.com/SleepwellCap
Enlightened's Ally write up: https://enlightenedcapital.substack.com/p/ally-financial-ally-investment-analysis
TSOH Ally write up: https://thescienceofhitting.com/
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:10 ALLY overview and history
5:00 Laying out the ALLY bull thesis
8:25 The ALLY valuation case
9:35 How good is ALLY's deposit base?
14:55 Does ALLY have a moat on their lending standards?
20:10 Discussing ALLY's strategic relationship
24:10 What is the market pricing into ALLY's stock?
28:20 ALLY's capital allocation (acquisitions and share repurchases)
33:15 Comping ALLY to a neo-bank
35:50 Ally's insider incentive and share ownership (or lack thereof)
38:45 Discussing Ally's exec comp and potential misalignment
41:20 Of all the stocks in the world, why is ALLY worth buying?
48:45 The decline of car ownership and rise of EVs as a tail risk
52:20 More on what ALLY would do if auto loan demand decreased dramatically
56:20 What's the end game for ALLY?
58:45 Would ALLY be a strategic target for M&A?
1:03:20 Closing thoughts
Andrew Freedman, managing director at Hedgeye, walks through the TMT landscape post earnings. Key topics include how he looks at legacy media company, why he's bearish PINS and SNAP but long TWTR, and his wories that the economics of streaming simply don't work.
Andrew's Twitter account: https://twitter.com/HedgeyeComm
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:15 Andrew's Process
5:15 Discussing long TWTR vs short SNAP / PINS
9:35 Does the strategic interest around PINS worry you?
15:20 What's going on with TWTR right now?
32:30 Discussing legacy media (starting with VIAC)
37:10 Comping VIAC's valuation versus NXST
41:10 Why does Andrew have a buy rating on NFLX?
45:35 What should Disney do with ESPN?
47:30 Does the MGM / Amazon deal suggest all of legacy media is undervalued?
51:00 How Andrew looks at the Discovery / Warner merger
1:00:40 Valuing VIAC's Pluto asset
1:04:15 Closing thoughts and Andrew's favorite pick
Ari Lazar, senior analyst at RGA investment advisors, discusses his bull case for KW. Ari believes KW trades at a material discount to NAV, and that discount should shrink as the company's growth starts to ramp up in the near future.
My tweet thread on KW: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1465714725254307840?s=20
RGA's Q3 letter w/ KW discussion: https://www.rgaia.com/commentary/q4-2021-investment-commentary-looking-inward-and-looking-westward/
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:25 KW Overview
2:45 How KW fits into RGA's investment framework
6:35 KW history
8:30 Discussing the KWE / KW deal from ~2017
11:30 What's KW been doing since the KWE deal?
18:35 Diving into KW's SOTP and their multifamily properties
20:45 Slight technical difficulty
21:25 Continued discussion of KW's SOTP / multifamily assets
23:05 KW"s office assets
29:45 How do you get comfortable when cap rates are this low?
32:30 KW's development asset value
40:20 Valuing KW's asset management business
50:10 Don't all real estate companies trade at a discount to NAV?
55:25 Is there financial engineering potential / could KW split into a REIT?
1:02:00 Does KW belong on the Mount Rushmore of value traps?
Richard Sosa, host of the Riches in Niches podcast, discusses his thesis on Donnelly Financial (DFIN). Despite a strong recent run, DFIN trades at a value multiple, and Richard breaks down all the reasons why he thinks the stock is too cheap and why DFIN is a huge beneficiary of the current SPAC / IPO boom.
My twitter background thread on DFIN: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1460661067395305479?s=20
Riches in Niches podcast twitter: @RichesNichesPod
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:40 Some background on Richard
4:10 Why Richard likes niches
5:10 DFIN overview
10:45 DFIN's classic spin dynamics
14:35 DFIN's public to private headwinds before the SPAC boom
18:30 Regulatory headwinds in the print business
21:55 More DFIN background
29:30 What the capital markets business does and how it benefits from the M&A / SPAC boom
37:00 Comping DFIN to Workiva
39:40 How sticky is DFIN?
43:20 Breaking down DFIN's valuation
46:30 Is DFIN's shifting segment disclosure concerning?
50:15 Why is the market trading DFIN at such a low multiple?
53:25 Is management and the board fully aligned here?
57:00 DFIN's history of capital returns
1:02:25 More on DFIN's multiple
1:04:55 Closing thoughts
Evan Tindell, CIO of Bireme Capital, discusses the value he sees in Tencent Music (TME). Key topics include why he's not worried about TME's controlling shareholder or VIE structure, and why he thinks the stock is significantly undervalued.
My Twitter thread on TME: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1458813448217935874?s=20
Bireme Capital's website: https://www.biremecapital.com/disclaimer.html
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:05 TME Overview
1:40 History of shorting Chinese reverse merger
4:30 More background on TME
7:55 How similar is TME to Spotify?
20:00 Why is TME the best way to play the current panic in China stocks?
24:30 Can we trust Tencent as TME's controlling shareholder?
28:15 The VIE structure risk
35:30 How did TME come to be so dominant in Chinese music streaming?
38:10 TME's cash rich balance sheet
43:00 TME's valuation
49:00 Discussing Spotify's valuation in relation to TME
55:50 What risk to TME worries Evan the most?
57:40 Is Evan attracted to messy ownership / control situations?
1:03:30 Brief discussion of Cogeco's current situation
Eric Markowitz, Director of research at Worm Capital, discusses the bull thesis for Tesla. Key topics include all of Tesla's growth options, the biggest misperceptions of Tesla, and why comparing Tesla's valuation to legacy auto manufacturers doesn't make sense.
We wrap up with 15 minutes of discussion on Spotify and what's misunderstood with that company as well.
Reading links:
Worm's Q3 letter: https://www.wormcapital.com/the-wormhole-source/q3-2021
My background tweet on Tesla: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1458061963439878145?s=20
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:15 Tesla overview
4:15 Tesla's big misperceptions
5:35 How is Tesla different than other car companies?
8:45 Tesla's neural nets and R&D efficiency
13:30 Tesla's recruiting edge
16:55 Worm's investing philosophy
19:05 The power of winner take most markets
23:30 Framing Tesla's valuation
26:05 How strong is Tesla's manufacturing edge?
28:30 Does competition actually expand the EV industry?
31:30 What's the most exciting growth optionality at Tesla?
35:20 Tesla's battery opportunity
36:50 Tesla's red flags and the Solar City Potemkin village
43:05 Tesla's brand strength
45:35 The myth of the Tesla killer
49:45 Flipping to Spotify
49:55 What's the biggest misperception with SPOT?
52:05 Spotify as Netflix 2.0
54:20 Spotify's advertising opportunity
56:15 What worries Eric most about Spotify?
59:40 Spotify's relationship with labels
Aaron Edelheit returns to the podcast to discuss all of the opportunities he's seeing in the cannabis world and why he's chosen now to launch a Cannabis focused fund.
Aaron's Cannabis manifesto: https://mindsetvalue.substack.com/p/the-cannabis-manifesto
Seth Rogen profile I mention during the pod: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/20/magazine/seth-rogen.html
Chapters:
0:00 Intro
2:45 Why is Aaron launching a cannabis fund now?
12:00 Professional athletes and cannabis
16:55 How Cannabis today reminds Aaron of single family homes after the GFC
26:50 Aaron's views on federal legalization
37:35 Is Aaron more interested in the direct cannabis plays or the "picks and shovel" providers?
45:50 Using Verano to highlight the growth and valuations Aaron is seeing
54:00 Will the industry stay vertically integrated, or will we start seeing more focused players?
58:55 The tax issues with cannabis plays and why EBITDA is so important here
Jeremy Raper makes his record fifth podcast appearance to discuss his latest high conviction idea: POSaBIT (POSAF). POSaBIT is a microcap company trading on a very small foreign exchange, so risk is certainly elevated here and listeners should remember to do their own work / this is not investing advice. However, Jeremy believes that the company's strong growth and big moat far outweigh the various red flags and risk around it, and that the stock is significantly undervalued based on where much slower growing peers are trading.
Jeremy's seeking alpha article: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4462310-posabit-systems-3x-upside-potential
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:00 POSaBIT overview
14:30 Diving into POSaBIT's moat
22:10 Why POSaBIT's take rate is sustainable
28:45 If Cannabis got legalized tomorrow, what would happen to POSaBIT?
33:30 Is private equity rolling up the industry a risk?
37:10 Discussing valuation
46:55 Breaking down the RTO / reverse merger red flag
53:10 Jeremy's closing thoughts
Martin Werner, co-founding partner of DD3 Capital, discusses DDMX's deal to deSPAC with Codere Online. Key topics include what DDMX was looking for in a deal, how DDMX worked with their partners in structuring their deal, and why DDMX thinks Codere Online's omnichannel presence gives them a leg up in attacking and winning Latam markets. Towards the end, Martin discusses how he's looking at Betterware (BWMX, which was DD3's first SPAC) and what DD3 will be looking at in their SPAC going forward.
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:45 What DDMX was looking for in a deal
3:10 DDMX's proxy and the companies they passed on
8:30 DDMX's forward purchase agreement with Baron Funds
12:35 What happened between contacting Codere in January and signing the BCA in June?
15:15 What attracted DDMX to Codere online?
18:40 Codere's Spanish market share and outlook
21:55 Discussing Codere's projections and the assumptions behind them
25:05 Codere's longer term projection and financials
26:00 How lower redemptions will allow Codere to accelerate growth
28:00 Codere's phase 3 plans to move into the U.S. market
31:35 Similarities between Codere Online and Golden Nugget Online
32:30 Why DDMX isn't subject to the winner's curse
35:30 Wrapping up the Codere discussion
36:35 Betterware (BWMX) discussion
39:55 Breaking down the distributor churn at BWMX
44:10 Comparing BWMX's post-COVID slowdown to cable
46:30 BWMX near term headwinds
48:05 What DD3 looks when deSPACing companies
Nitin Sacheti. CIO of Papyrus Capital and PM at ARS Investment Partners, breaks down his thesis for Innovate (VATE). VATE used to be known as HCHC. HCHC was a mishmash of interesting but disparate assets with a huge cost base. Following an activist battle in late 2019 / early 2020, a new management team was brought in and they have sold off noncore assets while dramatically reduing corporate overhead. Nitin believes the remaining assets are all uniquely valuable, and each could be worth more than VATE's current market cap on their own. With several looming catalysts and inflection points, Nitin thinks the next year or two could cause the market to rerate VATE closer to its intrinsic value.
My thread on $VATE: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1452377035897200653?s=20
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:15 VATE Overview
3:05 Segment #1: DBM Overview
5:15 Segment #2: Life Sciences Overview
7:15 Segment #3: Broadcasting Overview
12:10 Discussing VATE's new management team
21:45 Breaking down the Broadcast business
30:00 Pushing back on the broadcast business plan
35:50 How to value broadcast's spectrum
37:55 Is broadcast spectrum still valuable in a 5G world?
42:20 Discussing DBM's moat and value
47:40 What does R2 (life science's main asset) do?
53:20 Walking through VATE's SOTP value
1:00:50 How to look at VATE's recent related party deals
1:05:25 Discussing VATE's chairman and largest shareholder
1:08:15 What's the endgame for VATE?
Additional disclaimer: Today’s discussion may contain forward looking statements all statements made that are not historical facts are subject to a number of risks and uncertainty; actual results may differ materially. Please refer to ARS's website for important legal and disclosure information: www.arsinvestmentpartners.com
Felix Narhi, CIO and Portfolio Manager at PenderFund, discusses his investment in Stitch Fix (SFIX). Key topics include what Stitch Fix's Act 2 looks like, why negative anecdata from first time users doesn't worry Felix, and what separates Stitch Fix from other online retailers.
Felix's Q2 letter: https://www.penderfund.com/commentaries/the-managers-commentary-q2-2021-2/
My SFIX tweet thread: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1450509121661308928?s=20
Felix's Twitter: https://twitter.com/PenderFelix
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:10 Stitch Fix Overview
2:40 Addressing the negative anecdata
6:30 What does SFIX's transition to Act 2 look like?
9:10 Why is SFIX's data and data scientist focus an advantage?
16:50 What would an Act 3 look like?
19:35 Is it concerning Katrina Lake (the founder) stepped down as CEO?
23:45 Discussing the stylist hours worked controversy
31:30 Stitch Fix's inventory changes
35:30 Will brands pull from Stitch Fix at some point in the future?
41:15 Will Stitch Fix ever charge for the data they give brands?
44:30 Why isn't Stitch Fix growing faster?
49:50 Quantifying Stitch Fix's valuation
54:20 Stitch Fix's private market and strategic value
57:30 Does Stitch Fix need physical locations?
Randy Baron, one of the most popular YAVP guests, returns to discuss his investment thesis on Renalytix (RNLX). Randy sees similarities between RNLX and EXAS, which was a controversial stock that has rocketed over the last few years as the company's diagnostic product gained momentum. While not without risk, Randy thinks RNLX could be even bigger if successful as they are attacking the much larger Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) market, and he discusses all of the signs he sees that the company is about to inflect.
Randy's first appearance on Amyris (AMRS): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zCKxUHfCoQQ&t=1s
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:20 RNLX overview
8:55 Where does RNLX fall into CKD?
14:00 Why now is the time for RNLX in CKD
20:40 How RNLX can operate even without MICT
24:30 More on RNLX and Medicare
25:30 When will RNLX get FDA approval?
33:40 What if RNLX doesn't get FDA approval?
37:30 RNLX's CEO and founder, James McCullough
43:40 Why is RNLX so under the radar?
46:40 Comping RNLX to Theranos
50:00 Randy's closing thoughts
Tim Weber, a private investor, discusses the bull thesis for $AMPY. We're in a period of heightened uncertainty, as the company's Beta asset was responsible for an oil spill last weekend. However, Tim think the market has shot AMPY and priced in a worst case scenario without factoring in lots of other factors (the likelihood a ship is responsible for the spill, that this spill is much smaller than precedent spills and damages shoudl thus be significantly lower, etc.).
AMPY is a microcap oil and gas company with high leverage and ongoing risk from the oil spill. Investors should remember the extremely high degree of risk here, that nothing on this podcast is investing advice, and that everyone is encouraged to do their own work!
Tim's AMPY write up: https://twebs.substack.com/p/ampy
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:55 Extra Disclosures
3:10 AMPY Overview
6:25 Diving into the spill
9:40 The Plains All American (PAA) Precdent
15:20 Does AMPY's small size mean they don't have the resources to survive the spill?
20:00 Is there a chance the net liability to AMPY is ultimately zero?
22:00 Discussing the current regulatory / fine envrionment
22:45 AMPY's solvency and liquidity
28:45 Could AMPY file Beta without impacting the rest of the company?
30:30 Will the spill push AMPY to sell assets?
33:30 AMPY's SOTP and PV-10
39:10 Could regulators pull the Beta lease?
44:50 Recovery risk if a ship is found at fault
46:40 Could AMPY's hedge book be an issue?
50:15 Is the delay from AMPY alerting regulators hurt them?
56:00 Tim's closing thoughts
Leo Kang, author of the excellent Plum Capital Substack, comes on to discuss his thesis on Atento (ATTO). With 3 legacy private equity holders owning more than 60% of the stock, Leo think the company is set for a sale, and a cheap multiple, continued operating momentum, and health dose of leverage could create for serious upside in a process.
Leo's ATTO write up: https://plumcapital.substack.com/p/at...
My ATTO notes: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:30 ATTO overview
3:15 ATTO's ownership history
7:45 The "Big 3's" incentive to sell
9:20 Pushing back on the sales incentive
13:50 Discussing valuation
15:30 ATTO's operating momentum
18:30 What does ATTO do?
22:30 How does ATTO compete with?
24:30 Is there a trend towards insourcing costumer service?
28:15 What happens if ATTO's loses the Telefonica contract?
33:30 Can we read anything into ATTO's lack of capital returns?
37:55 Discussing the upside from the Telefonica contract
40:20 Comping peer multiples
43:05 Does the Telefonica contract line up well with a sales process?
46:25 ATTO's attempts to move into the U.S.
50:45 ATTO's foreign exchange risk
52:55 Closing thoughts
Ben Claremon, Partner at Cove Street Capital, discusses his thesis on Lumen. Lumen is a complicated story and a bit of a battleground stock, but Ben think the company is trading at a large discount to their asset value and is making moves to unlock that value.
Ben's first YAVP appearance on Viasat (VSAT): https://youtu.be/Otw0oWvuhdU
Ben's Compounders podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Qbcrw84MDaJ3CZUNuqOxu?si=vD-uIjqVR4G_SFwH_ALVEg&dl_branch=1
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:35 Lumen Overview
5:55 Why didn't Lumens' old management team believe in Fiber?
13:30 Discussing the proxy statement and management incentives
19:15 How can telecom investors get over their Lumen baggage?
25:15 Looking at Lumen as a special situation
35:00 What would Lumen look like if they sold all of their consumer business?
37:05 Lumen's valuation and sum of the parts
39:15 Lumen's looming dividend cut?
47:00 Government subsidies (CAF going away; RDOF replacing it?)
54:40 Why invest in Lumen vs. a cleaner story like Frontier (FYBR)
1:03:25 Closing thoughts
Edwin Dorsey, founder of The Bear Cave, discusses his bearish note on Clear Secure (YOU). Bulls think Clear is a product members love with a clear moat and a long growth runway; Edwin sees a company with lots of consumer complaints that has been around for almost two decades and is still losing money while losing economics to key partners like airports.
The Bear Cave's YOU note: https://thebearcave.substack.com/p/pr...
My Clear tweet thread: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...
Edwin's first podcast appearance: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:20 Clear Overview
3:25 What is the crux of the bear thesis?
4:55 What's wrong with Clear's business model?
9:20 Why won't American partner with Clear?
11:45 Discussing the San Jose concession
13:55 Clear's NPS score vs. their BBB rating
21:10 How Clear calculates their member count
23:15 Are Clear's churn numbers as good as they look?
27:00 Clear's strategic fit in bundles
29:55 Clear's growth opportunities
33:20 Why wouldn't Apple or Google win the "entry" game versus Clear?
34:15 Is Clear a COVID beneficiary?
36:30 Can clear become a 12x/day product?
41:20 Clear's history of retaining key partners
43:30 Will Clear run afoul of airlines in the long term?
48:30 Closing thoughts
Jeff Moore and Thomas Braziel discuss their new position in AAMC. AAMC is an illiquid microcap, which significantly increases its risk, but Jeff and Thomas think the company is likely to have a successful settlement of their preferred stock. After settlement, AAMC should have net cash per share in excess of today's share price, and then the company could make a significantly accrettive acquisition.
Jeff's original tweet on AAMC: https://twitter.com/ragnarisapirate/status/1433519100152721412?s=20
Jeff's YAVP first appearance on THRY: https://youtu.be/196QthwtDMk
Thomas's first YAVP appearance on GOED: https://youtu.be/eKnnl7AaMMA
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:30 AAMC overview
6:40 Some extra AAMC goodies
7:25 Why will Luxor settle their prefs?
11:40 Bill Erbey's background
16:15 Discussing a potential crypto acquisition
23:10 How a crypto transaction could rhyme with SPRT
28:00 Discussing a fix and flip
34:55 Other possible deals
36:55 The longshot Erbey / Blackrock lawsuit
41:55 AAMC's cash burn
43:30 Could AAMC's new execs reinforce the potential upside here?
45:00 Closing thoughts
Kyler Hasson, Portfolio Manager at Delta Investment Management, discusses our mutual position / bag-holding in Altice. Key topics include what bulls could be missing, the differences between Altice and Charter, and how regulation could impact cable.
My tweet thread on ATUS: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1435228524399448065?s=20
Kyler's write up: https://concentratedcompounding.substack.com/p/altice
My write up: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/p/altice-is-the-best-large-cap-stock
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:23 ATUS overview
2:25 Comping Altice today to Charter in 2018
4:00 What are we seeing that the stock market is missing
7:55 How much weight should we put on Altice's bad quarter
11:30 Does Altice management have a handle on the business?
21:30 Discussing CABO's valuation versus the major cable peers
23:00 How Altice's pricing, cost, and FTTH strategy differs from peers
28:00 What if Altice needs to roll back prices or invest back into opex?
31:00 Could Altice pull a Dell?
37:55 More on Altice's FTTH strategy
44:00 Talking about Altice's different parts
47:45 What could break the cable thesis?
56:00 Quick discussion of satellite / Starlink internet risk
58:30 Cable regulatory concerns
1:04:30 Kyler's closing thoughts
Brian Laks, partner at Old West Invest Management, discusses the bull case for uranium. Key topics include why this time could be different, breaking down the supply / demand curve that has him so excited, and discussing why NexGen (NXE) is such an interesting way to play uranium.
Brian's twitter account: https://twitter.com/brianlaks
Kuppy's uranium shortage post: https://adventuresincapitalism.com/20...
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:30 Uranium overview
2:35 What got Old West so excited about uranium?
5:05 Discussing the uranium cost curve
7:35 Uranium supply / demand imbalance
10:15 Uranium's cycles since 2000
15:15 Why is the cycle happening now?
19:15 What's to stop supply from coming on if prices start to rise?
25:40 When and how do mothballed facilities start coming back on?
30:00 The Sprott Uranium Trust
40:20 Nexgen (NXE) overview
46:20 Nexgen's low cost mine
49:10 Nexgen's timeline to completing their mine
52:55 Discussing Nexgen's uranium price assumptions
56:30 Why won't this go into mine development hell?
58:40 Nexgen's base case upside
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Jon Cukiewar, Founder of Sohra Peak Capital, discusses his ivnestment thesis for goeasy (in Canada under $GSY; in U.S. under $EHMEF). Jon does a deep dive into the company's history before explaining how they can get such great returns and why he sees continued strong growth in their future.
Jon's twitter: https://twitter.com/JonCukierwar
Sohra Peak's website: https://www.sohrapeakcapital.com/disclaimer
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:40 goeasy overview and background
15:00 Discussing goeasy's valuation versus U.S. peers
18:15 How can goeasy consistently get over 20% returns on equity
28:40 goeasy's strong capital allocation
30:45 Why is goeasy paying a dividend?
35:55 How do goeasy's borrowers perform when the economy takes a turn?
38:35 Regulatory environment and concerns
43:15 What's goeasy's advantage as they move into new lending niches?
44:45 Revisiting valuation / how does this outperform going forward?
55:25 Discussing the lendcare acquisition
59;40 Jon's closing thoughts
Thomas Braziel, President of 507 Capital, discusses his investment in $GOED. Key topics include addressing the (many) red flags around the investment, how Thomas found the company and why he likes the set up so much, and why investing in stocks with some hair on them can deliver serious alpha.
Thomas's twitter: https://twitter.com/ThomasBraziel
My notes on GOED: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1430382893692506112?s=20
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:20 Thomas's legendary Ethenex trade
3:10 $GOED overview
8:00 Background to the set up / how the warrants came publicly traded
11:00 $GOED merger / financing background
14:00 The massive stock offering discussion
17:00 Do you believe $GOED's claims that they have sourcing and distribution advantages?
20:25 Why was AC the seller instead of the buyer?
24:30 Do you worry about $GOED auditor switch / financial statements?
27:30 Why did GOED keep recutting the deal to give AC more cash?
31:20 GOED's rebate accounting
34:20 Capital allocation going forward
37:25 General discussion of why buying stocks with hair is riskier but carries huge potential rewards
38:30 GOED management's alignment
40:05 GOED's activist potential
43:10 Quickly painting a reasonable bull / valuation case
48:05 General discussion of swinging hard when you find a good pitch
49:30 How capital light will GOED be?
52:10 Quick Tesla discussion
53:25 Thomas's closing thoughts (and a quick ICLTF mention!)
Louis Camhi, a private investor, discusses his thesis for Origin Materials (ORGN). Origin is a recent deSPAC that has seen a brutal sell off, but Louis thinks the company represents a hyper skewed risk reward, albeit one with a VC style downside (i.e. if it doesn't work out, they'll be worth basically nothing). Louis breaks down what Origin does, why he's so confident that they can build their plans on time and on budget, the demand he sees for their products, and a bunch of other pieces of the Origin thesis.
Louis's twitter handle: https://twitter.com/valwithcatalyst
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:25 Origin overview
4:05 How Origin's product is carbon negative
6:10 Discussing Origin's SPAC sponsor credentials
9:10 Why were these the right sponsors to take Origin public?
11:25 Timeline for Origin to get to revenue and scale up
14:45 Origin 1 and 2 cost and backlog strength
18:40 Could Origin's backlog be impacted by construction delays?
20:30 How unique is Origin's process and technology
25:40 Discussing Origin's cost and if this can work without getting an "ESG" premium price
27:50 Construction cost risk
32:25 Various upside and downside risks
35:00 Origin's financing plans
39:40 Origin's long term margin outlook
41:25 Why didn't the SPAC sponsors put equity into the deal?
46:25 Comping Origin to other peak SPACmania buzzy deals
55:00 What other deSPACs are catching Louis's eye
58:20 Quick Katapult and Ironsource mention
1:00:35 A little longer ALIT mention
Mike Mitchell, the king of lumber fintwit, discusses his big bet on GreenFirst. Key topics include how Mike found GreenFirst (back when it was Itasca Capital), how he came to know and trust the management team, why he's so bullish on lumber, and why the thinks the deal to buy Rayonier's lumber assets is such a good one.
Note that GreenFirst is a microcap Canadian company and much riskier than your average stock, so please remember nothing in this podcast is investing advice and to do your own due diligence.
*During the podcast, Mike mentions smoking ribs for Kyle. Kyle has assured me that Mike's ribs are excellent.
Mike's thread on ICLTF: https://twitter.com/ignorenarrative/s...
My GreenFirst background tweets: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:55 GreenFirst overview and background
6:45 Who the heck closes a deal on a Saturday?
7:15 How Mike came to know and trust management
13:35 Mike smokes ribs for Kyle*
17:20 Discussing the various bear cases surrounding the FGF universe
20:45 Comping FGF to some of the early John Malone transactions
22:50 Betting on great management teams
28:00 Lumber fundamentals overview
37:45 Some more discussion on the complexity of lumber prices
41:40 What drove the recent lumber price crash?
44:15 Can ICLTF make money with lumber prices where they are currently?
49:35 If ICLTF is buying assets so cheap, why is Rayonier selling?
56:20 Viewing the rights offering through the bull and bear lens
1:06:15 GreenFirst's new management team (the people who will actually operate the assets)
1:10:25 Comping the assets GreenFirst is buying to other industry deals
1:14:00 What happens if lumber prices and utilization don't improve?
Sean Iddings, an entrepreneur and microcap investor, discusses his high conviction position in eXp World Holdings (EXPI). EXPI is a hyper growth company that is attacking the real estate brokerage business with an interesting model. Sean breaks down the business, the upside he sees in the company, and addresses some of the red flags surrounding the stock.
Sean’s EXPI write up: https://www.thewoodshedd.com/posts/2021-07-09-highconviction-copy/#how-to-value-expi
Sean's twitter: https://twitter.com/iddings_sean
My notes on EXPI, including some interesting proxy details: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1423081507132936194?s=20
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:25 What is EXPI?
8:55 How EXPI harnesses the power of incentives
10:05 Comparing EXPI to a multi-level marketing company (EXPI)
18:00 Why aren't we seeing operating leverage?
22:30 EXPI's expansion opportunities
26:30 Discussing EXPI's copycats
29:20 Is how the employees relate to the stock price concerning?
35:45 Veirbela and Success magazine; critical assets or overrated?
45:50 Sean's closing thoughts
Chris Krug, President of Chatham Harbor Capital, breaks down his thesis on PFMT, including why he thinks the stock could be a multi-multi-bagger.
Chris's twitter: https://twitter.com/chcap2016
My thread on PFMT notes: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/st...
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:05 PFMT Valuation Outline
4:40 PFMT business overview
15:15 How PFMT "lands and expands" verticals
18:55 How PFMT integrates and ramps up new contracts
27:55 Why can't a start up come and displace PFMT?
32:05 What PFMT's financials look like once all their new clients onboard
35:40 Quantifying PFMT's margin outlook
37:25 Why can't HMS respond to PFMT?
40:20 Why is Parthenon selling so aggressively?
44:20 PFMT's capital allocation
47:25 Would healthcare reform hurt or help PFMT?
49:15 What could kill this investment?
53:10 Closing thoughts
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Artem Fokin, founder of Caro-Kann Capital, discusses the bull case for Burford (BUR). Burford is a litigation finance firm, and Artem makes a compelling case that they are both undervalued on an asset basis and have a moat giving their scale.
Caro-Kann's website: http://caro-kann-capital.com/
My thread on Burford prep: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1415795903751983109?s=20
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:35 Burford Overview
6:00 Does Burford bring something other than money to the table?
13:45 Is Burford's scale a competitive advantage?
19:30 Why can't a major PE or IB launch a Burford competitor?
23:10 Are the returns to litigation financing sustainable?
37:10 How do you value Burford?
42:20 Burford's first component of value: Balance sheet investments
49:05 Buford's second value component: Asset management
54:50 Burford's third value component: YPF case
58:30 How Burford has valued YPF over the years
1:10:25 Why should YPF settle in dollars instead of pesos?
1:14:20 Discussing the bear case around the management team
1:23:45 Closing thoughts
Adam Lindsay, founder and managing partner of Powell Anderson Capital Partners, discusses his bull thesis for Tripadvior (TRIP) and Liberty Tripadvisor (LTRPA). The bull thesis is nuanced, but much of it centers on TRIP's nascent Tripadvisor Plus business, which Adam thinks TRIP is uniquely suited to successfully launch and could drastically change their financials.
Adam's email: adam@pacp.com
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:30 TRIP Overview
6:30 Why is Tripadvisor Plus not Instant Booking 2.0?
13:00 How Plus could be a win/win/win
22:30 Why can't OTA competitors copy Plus if it works?
25:25 TRIP's crown jewel: experiences
33:00 Evaluating TRIP's management
38:00 Strained analogy comparing Twitter to TRIP
40:30 TRIP valuation
43:45 TRIP's cost structure going forward
50:05 Comparing Liberty Tripadvisor to Tripadvisor
55:00 Do TRIP and LTRPA get a "Maffei discount"?
Kyle Cerminara, President of FGNA, discusses his thesis for deSPACing with OppFi. Key topics include comparing OppFi to its closest competitors, how FNGA and OppFi arrived at their valuation, and addressing different regulatory risks for OppFi.
Kyle's twitter: https://twitter.com/kcerminara
OppFi / FGNA's SEC filings: https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1818502&owner=exclude
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:30 OppFi overview
9:40 Comping OppFi to Upstart
16:35 Why are Katapult and Affirm part of OppFi's comp set?
19:00 OppFi's valuation
22:10 Why did OppFi agree to a deSpac at this valuation?
27:45 How going public gives OppFi a bigger microphone
29:35 Discussing negative headlines around FGF
35:25 Why did FGNA send out so many LOIs?
40:00 How did FGNA and OppFi handle the wait between the LOI in December and the definitive deal in February
45:20 Will banning "rent-a-bank" impact OppFi?
49:00 Discussing OppFi's ~30% charge off rate
50:50 Interest rate caps and pending litigation
55:20 Why didn't FGNA get a PIPE for the OppFi deal?
58:10 Discussing OppFi's management and Joe Moglia
1:06:45 Kyle's closing thoughts
1:09:15 Bonus question: how will reopening impact OppFi?
Mike Melby, Founder and Portfolio Manager at Gate City Capital, makes a repeat appearance to discuss his investment in CATO. CATO is a small retailer with a rock solid balance sheet; Mike thinks their low multiple combined with a focus on returning cash flow to shareholders and some hidden tax and real estate assets creates an attractive investment opportunity.
Mike's first appearance on AXR: https://youtu.be/mSEgw2529Q4
Gate City Capital website: https://www.gatecitycap.com/
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:00 Cato Overview
5:45 Cato's target demographics
8:45 Cato's online strategy (or lack thereof)
13:15 What's driven Cato's store base recently
15:30 Discussing CATO's management
22:05 Valuing CATO's land
27:35 Quantifying CATO's Sum of the Parts (SOTP)
30:15 What's the endgame for CATO?
37:25 Mike's closing thoughts on CATO
Brian Mosoff, CEO of Ether Capital Corp, does a deep dive into the investment case for Ethereum. Key topics include how Ethereum is different than Bitcoin, how proof of stake and EIP-1559 will improve the Ethereum ecosystem, and why Ethereum today looks like investing in computer operating systems in the early 80s.
Disclosure: nothing in here is investing advice. Listeners/viewers should remember crypto is extremely risky and do their own work!
Brian's Twitter: https://twitter.com/brianmosoff
Ether Capital's Twitter: https://twitter.com/ethcap
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:35 Brian's background
2:40 How is Ethereum different than Bitcoin?
10:55 Ether as the operating system / highway for Web 3.0
16:20 Who are the "operating system" competitors for Ether
23:05 How ether's transaction fee lead creates a big network effect
27:50 How do you value Ethereum?
30:50 Comparing crypto today to the dotcom bubble
37:00 Can you value Ether of their fee run rate?
47:00 Discussing staking and proof of stake
58:50 What is EIP-1559?
1:11:45 What is the risk to staking?
1:13:50 Brian's closing thoughts
SHOW LESS
Randy Baron, Portfolio Manager at Pinnacle Associates, gives an overview of the Synthetic Biology space. Randy thinks "the 21st century is going to be a century of biology," and he discusses all the ways synthetic biology can change the world and why he thinks Amyris (AMRS) could be the biggest winner given their head start in the space.
Randy's Barron's write up on Synthetic Biology: https://www.barrons.com/articles/an-investors-guide-to-the-promise-of-synthetic-biology-51623275429
My thread with AMRS management quotes: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1407372814466826240
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:00 Synthetic Biology Overview
9:00 Amyris's founding treating malaria
12:30 Squalene oil overview
19:00 What's the barrier to entry for synthetic biology?
23:45 Why is scaling so hard in synthetic biology?
25:05 Comping AMRS to ZY (Zymergen)
31:45 Discussing the value of AMRS's scaled molecules and pipeline
35:00 AMRS's consumer brands
37:20 Is having consumer brands and a research arm too good to be true?
39:20 How AMRS could improve vaccines
44:55 AMRS's zero calorie product, Purecane
49:50 Quantifying the value of AMRS's different parts (SOTP)
1:01:00 Discussing management and John Doerr's involvement
1:06:00 How do you evaluate AMRS's CEO?
1:11:45 Final thoughts
James Elbaor, founder and CIO of Marlton Capital, discusses his investment thesis for Third Point Investors (TPOU; trades in London).
TPOU is a closed-end investment company that invests into Third Point, Dan Loeb's hedge fund. TPOU consistently trades at a discount to NAV, and James thinks the combination of Third Point's investing prowess and TPOU's innovative buyback/tender mechanism creates a unique opportunity to generate attractive returns.
James' Twitter: https://twitter.com/jameselbaor
Asset Value's May 26, 2021 activist letter to TPOU: https://www.assetvalueinvestors.com/content/uploads/2021/05/AVI-Open-Letter-to-TPIL-Vote-Co_2.pdf
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:30 TPOU Overview
3:55 Why invest in TPOU instead of Third Point directly?
7:00 Third Point's return profile, past and forward looking
14:20 TPOU's discount and unique tender mechanism
17:30 Laying out a base case IRR to a potential March 31, 2024 tender
27:30 Pushback #1: Doesn't this deserve a discount given the fee structure?
34:25 Pushbuck #2: The corporate governance issues raised by Asset Value's letter
43:30 TPOU tax consequences for U.S. investors
45:05 Final thoughts on TPOU
50:00 Quick hit on Third Point / Vivendi / PSTH / UMG
Andrew Carreon, founder of Emeth Value, discusses his thesis on Blackstone Minerals (BSM). Key points include how some of the company's undeveloped acreage could be a massive call option, how rising commodity prices impact BSM's value, and how BSM compares to other loose peers.
Side note: I had a puppy emergency for the last ten minutes of this podcast; you might see me glancing to the side a bit as my dog (Penny) tries to get my attention. I still think the conversation was great, but sorry for that!
Emeth Value's website: https://www.emethvaluecapital.com/
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:00 Blackstone Minerals (BSM) overview
4:40 How mineral rights work
7:15 Contrasting BSM versus TPL
11:50 How does BSM's acreage quality compare to TPL
15:10 BSM's LP structure versus traditional C-corps
18:55 Why BSM's NPV reserve calculation understates their value
23:25 What commodity prices are currently baked into BSM's share price?
31:30 Discussing BSM's GP
33:10 How their capex / farm out agreements work
37:45 Management's track record and pandemic performance
43:25 Drilling outlook for BSM's acreage
50:00 Diving into BSM's Austin Chalk acreage
53:15 Puppy emergency driven conclusion
Aaron Edelheit, founder of Mindset Capital and author of The Hard Break, comes on to discuss his thesis for investing in cannabis in general and Glass House Group in particular. Key topics include why interstate legalization could come sooner than later, how Glass House's California locations are a huge asset, and why U.S. Cannabis stocks trade don't trade in the U.S.
Aaron's Book, The Hard Break: https://amzn.to/34dKyYL
Aaron's article on Glass House: https://mindsetvalue.substack.com/p/the-most-valuable-greenhouse-in-america
Aaron's article on interstate commerce: https://mindsetvalue.substack.com/p/are-interstate-commerce-restrictions
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:00 Disclaimer
2:25 Why is investing in cannabis interesting now?
11:00 Why is cannabis not a complete commodity once legalized?
16:10 Why is California so great for growing cannabis?
25:05 How retail can be a moat in cannabis
29:40 Discussing the three way SPAC merger that will form Glass House
38:30 When will cannabis go interstate?
43:15 How to think about valuation of Glass House
47:00 What's the difference between BRND in Canada and MRCQF on OTC?
The crypto market currently feels like the wild wild west. It can take only a week or two to run through a full cycle (a bull and a bear market), and coins that are explicitly a joke can be valued at billions of dollars on the back of a tweet from the right celebrity.
David Fauchier, fund manager at Nickel Digital, pops on to discuss how a professional approaches investing in the crypto world. Topics include bitcoin future arb, how to approach the risk of fraud or an exchange blowing up, and why it makes more sense to invest in crypto directly than to invest in mining.
My post on BlockFi and Bitcoin Futures Arb: https://yetanothervalueblog.com/2021/...
David's Twitter: https://twitter.com/dfauchier
David's other podcast covering the crypto market: https://blog.thinknewfound.com/podcas...
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:50 Overview of Nickel Digital and David's background
4:55 Bitcoin futures arb overview
11:05 Risks and negatives to the arb trade.
15:58 Bitcoin : Ethereum :: Unproductive : Productive?
23:10 Digital Horses and other productive uses for blockchain
25:40 Fraud risk in crypto trading
32:00 Could the crypto exchanges blow up?
50:10 Does cryptos 24/7 nature and extreme volatility minimize blow up risk?
53:20 Buying crypto versus buying miners
1:04:30 How David evaluates managers in the crypto space
Chris McIntyre, founder of McIntyre partnerships, discusses his investment thesis for Garrett Motion (GTX). GTX just emerged from bankruptcy after filing in 2020, and Chris thinks the stock is significantly too cheap. He walks through how Garrett's near term projections are significantly understated, how minority shareholders are aligned with the new controlling shareholders, and why the company is likely to "melt" at a much slower rate than the market is pricing in.
Chris's GTX website: gtxisacheapstock.com
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:25 Garrett Background
8:40 Why Garrett is better than your average auto-supplier
11:15 Why wasn't the bankruptcy auction more robust?
16:15 Why Garrett filed for bankruptcy
25:55 Risk from Garrett's controlling shareholders
32:30 Garrett's management team
36:00 Garrett's valuation and prefs versus common
43:25 Why Chris thinks Garrett can far exceed their bankruptcy projections
52:10 Medium to longer term capital allocation at Garrett
56:35 Garrett's melting ice cube
1:01:30 Closing Thoughts
Dickson Pau, Tom Moore, and Bill Henry, three first years at Columbia Business School, discuss their investment thesis for Angi. The three pitched ANGI in the Pershing Stock Challenge (placing second!), and they go into the due diligence they did putting their investment thesis together, the potential upside they see at ANGI, and all of the different risk factors they thought about.
The first Yet Another Value Podcast on ANGI: https://youtu.be/J2trsM41DTU
Spring Graham and Doddsville (ANGI pitch on p. 24): https://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/valueinvesting/sites/valueinvesting/files/Graham%20%20Doddsville_Issue%2042_v8.pdf
Tom's Twitter: https://twitter.com/FriarTom15
Dickson's Twitter: https://twitter.com/DicksonPau
Chapters
0:00 Intro and backgrounds
2:40 Why they chose ANGI for their pitch
7:10 Dickson's DD booking ANGI projects
15:00 Takeaways from ANGI expert calls
22:20 Fixed price: the most exciting piece of ANGI
28:30 How the team views ANGI's new CEO
36:20 Why hasn't ANGI hit their merger targets?
40:40 Is ANGI's near term decline in service requests concerning?
45:50 ANGI's struggles with service providers
52:20 Competition risk
57:00 Laying out the long term case for ANGI
1:00:30 Closing thoughts
Javier Lovato from the Blind Squirrel comes on the podcast to discuss his post on Netflix, including why Netflix's scale is a massive moat, why the "Netflix doesn't do have quality" debate is wrong, and why Netflix is years ahead of their competition.
Blind Squirrel's Netflix Write Up: https://blindsquirrel.substack.com/p/netflix-focus-and-execution
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:25 Why is Netflix a good investment?
7:25 Netflix's relationship with creators
14:05 Where is Netflix's Game of Thrones
21:50 Does Netflix's weak Q1 indicate competition is gaining on them?
39:30 Why'd Netflix stop disclosing churn?
41:35 Netflix cost of capital and share repurchases
48:15 Opportunity cost of Netflix versus Disney, Spotify, or legacy media
51:30 Does Netflix need to get into video games?
Neil Cataldi from Blueprint Capital discusses his investment thesis for Sanara Medtech (SMTI). Sanara is growing quickly, and Neil thinks continued growth in their product portfolio and hospitals they are approved to sell in will drive continued accelerated growth and long term compounding.
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:00 Sanara overview
5:30 How is Sanara increasing their hospital reach?
14:25 Discussing management
21:10 Related party risks
33:20 Breaking down SMTI's growth
42:45 Sanara's telehealth ambitions
1:01:10 Closing thoughts
Alex Morris, founder of The Science of Hitting, comes on the podcast to discuss his investment thesis for Spotify (SPOT). Topics include how Spotify can compete with larger competitors like Apple and Amazon, why Spotify is gaining the upper hand in negotiations with record labels, and how Spotify today rhymes with Netflix in the early stages of their streaming pivot.
The science of hitting substack: https://thescienceofhitting.substack.com/
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:40 Why is Spotify a good investment?
4:40 How the past year built Alex's confidence in SPOT
7:55 Spotify as Netflix 2.0
11:30 Spotify's discover potential versus Netflix home page
13:40 Bear case #1: Competing with giants
17:35 Bear case #2: Lack of operating leverage and dealing with labels
22:10 Touching on the Taylor Swift re-recording
24:40 Bear case #3: Valuation
32:00 Bear case #4: Opportunity cost versus buying Twitter
37:40 Bear case #4 continued: Why not buy a label?
41:37 Live and podcast opportunity
46:10 Spotify's video opportunity
48:20 Content moderation issues
52:45 Spotify's concert and live event opportunity
55:45 What could Spotify acquire?
1:01:40 Alex's closing thoughts
Jeremy Raper, founder of Raper Capital (https://rapercapital.com/), makes his fourth podcast appearance to discuss his foray into activism at Hunter Douglas (HDG.NA). Hunter Douglas's controlling shareholder recently made an offer to take the company private that, to put it bluntly, vastly undervalues the business. Jeremy is pushing back on the deal and the process, and in this interview he explains why he's fighting the current offer and how he thinks the process will play out.
Jeremy's letter to the Hunter Douglas Board: https://rapercapital.com/2021/04/21/open-letter-to-the-independent-committee-of-the-board-of-hunter-douglas-n-v/
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:30 Hunter Douglas Overview
3:05 Why is this a good business?
7:45 Performance in the pandemic and the blockbuster recovery
9:45 Framing the event
12:15 Simplifying the event even further
16:00 Valuation versus peers
22:45 Why is this process worse than a typically conflicted management buyout?
30:45 How the timing of the offer was unfair to minorities
35:45 A callback to the StoneX / Gain deal
39:25 How the process plays out post-acceptance period
45:15 Comping this deal to Collector's Universe
49:40 Discussing the squeeze out
51:30 Praising the poetry of Jeremy's letter
53:35 Jeremy and I hop on our horses about companies and regulators ignoring rules and laws
55:55 Closing thoughts
Ian Bezek from Ian's Insider Corner discusses the most interesting event thesis I've seen this year: buying RenRen (RENN) into their legal battle over the OPI assets.
Ian's original RenRen write up: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4406707-renren-shareholders-claim-huge-sofi-stake-via-little-noticed-legal-fight
Ian's Twitter: https://twitter.com/irbezek
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:05 RenRen Overview
2:25 How Ian discovered RenRen
3:50 OPI transaction background
6:40 Discussing OPI's valuation
8:15 Oasis (the lead plaintiff) and the attempt to reclaim value
9:45 Laying out the event path
11:45 Who would pay if Oasis / minority shareholders win?
16:05 What is the legal precedent here?
18:35 Quantifying the upside
21:50 If we win, what happens to RENN minority shareholders?
23:55 How SoFi getting adding as defendant changes the lawsuit
29:05 Does Chamath's history at CLOV impact the timing here?
32:00 Could RENN go into bankruptcy to void the lawsuits?
34:10 Valuing RENN's other assets
36:15 Closing thoughts
Francisco Olivera, founder of Arevilo Capital, discusses his newest investment in Roblox (RBLX). He covers his vision for the company, why he thinks it's more of a platform than a single game, and how he thinks the company will evolve over time.
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:15 Roblox Overview
4:25 Comping Roblox to Minecraft and World of Warcraft
7:00 Defining the Roblox business model
11:35 Roblox valuation versus other game companies
18:45 Risk from Roblox's user base
26:25 Sustainability of Roblox's user base
29:38 Growing Roblox's DAU
34:00 Thinking about Roblox's COVID boost
37:00 Content moderation risk
42:00 Upside from Robux or messaging
49:10 Breaking down long term margins
52:40 Roblox's management team
57:15 Capital allocation going forward
59:55 Laying out a reasonable bull case
1:05:45 Quick Falcon and Winter Soldier catch up
Eugene Robin and Andrew Leaf from Cove Street discuss their investment in Viemed. Viemed targets organic growth rates over 30%, yet the company only trades for ~15x free cash flow. Andrew and Eugene lay out their case for why the market is wrong on this one, including why VMD's business model is advantaged versus their competitors and why they aren't scare of a Medicare cut in the near to medium term.
Cove Street's first podcast appearance on Viasat (VSAT): https://youtu.be/Otw0oWvuhdU
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:10 Viemed overview
4:30 Typical use case for VMD's ventilators
7:35 Discussion of COPD market
12:35 How VMD's business model is different than peers
24:20 Why is the market valuing a 30% organic growth business at 15x free cash flow?
33:20 Medicare cut risks and what happened in 2016
39:10 VMD's acquisition potential
42:00 VMD's moat with hiring therapists
47:00 Discussing VMD's bad debt expense
50:00 COVID's impact on VMD
53:30 Cove Street's price target
59:40 Parting thoughts
Adam Wilk, founder and portfolio manager at Greystone Capital, discusses his investment thesis in Liberated Syndication (LSYN). Key topics include why the company would make an attractive acquisition target, how Libsyn can grow in a competitive environment, and potential upside from a lawsuit that could cancel ~30% of LSYN's shares overnight.
Adam's Twitter account: https://twitter.com/AKWilk
Adam's LSYN thesis on seeking alpha: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4416747-liberated-syndication-update-and-favorable-developments
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:15 Libsyn Overview
11:10 Libsyn Valuation
12:55 Libsyn vs. Competitors
19:35 Is Libsyn losing market share?
23:10 Comping Libsyn to Dropbox
29:10 The hunt for a new CEO
37:30 Could Spotify dominate podcast hosting like YouTube for video?
44:35 Upside from Libsyn's lawsuit to cancel shares
Yaron Naymark, founder and Portfolio Manager at 1 Main Capital, discusses his investment in RCI Hospitality (RICK). RICK is a cash flow machine, and Yaron thinks the company is set to compound free cash flow per share at an accelerated rate for years as they continue to roll up the gentlemen's club industry at very low multiples, execute on their Bombshell's growth plans, and repurchase shares when they trade at attractive prices.
Yaron's Twitter: https://twitter.com/1MainCapital
1maincapital's website: https://www.1maincapital.com/
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:55 RICK overview
10:05 Getting comfortable with the management team
18:30 Discussing the roll up opportunity
28:15 Valuation arbitrage on acquired clubs
32:25 Bombshell's growth prospects
38:50 Breaking down the ROIC for new Bombshell's
44:15 RICK valuation and SOTP
49:25 Does ESG and regulation help or hurt RICK?
51:55 Normalized FCF for RICK
57:10 Closing thoughts and adjusting for James Harden leaving Houston
Jon Boyar from the Boyar Value Group returns to the podcast to discuss the proposed merger between MSGE and MSGN. To put it bluntly, the deal is a disaster with absolutely no strategic rational, and Jon walks through all of the reasons the deal doesn't make sense.
Jon's first podcast appearance: https://youtu.be/J2trsM41DTU
Boyar's letter to the MSGN board: https://www.boyarvaluegroup.com/blog/the-boyars-value-groups-letter-to-james-dolan/
If you're interested in hearing more about Jon's take on the different pieces of the MSG empire, email finfo@boyarvaluegroup.com and put Dolan in subject line.
Chapters
0:00 intro
1:15 MSGE / MSGN overview and background
8:30 Trying to layout the thesis behind the merger
11:25 Diving into the sports betting upside
15:15 Pushing back further on the deal bear case
20:30 Discussing majority of minority provisions
23:55 MSGE's Sphere
28:35 Dolan's capital allocation track record
32:30 Who else might bid for MSGN
Edwin Dorsey from the Bear Cave (https://thebearcave.substack.com/) returns to discuss a high conviction long idea, Otonomo. Otonomo is a "leading platform and marketplace for vehicle data" and is going public through a SPAC merger with SAII (will trade under ONTO post-deal). Edwin thinks the opportunity for the company is enormous, and if they successfully execute they could be a multi-bagger.
Chapters
0:00 Intro
4:00 Otonomo overview
6:15 How can Otonomo make money selling car data?
11:30 How does OEM partnerships work?
14:00 Why will automotive data be a winner take all market?
25:25 How Otonomo could undercut Root and Metromile
29:00 Discussing the Otonomo management team
33:50 The SAII PIPE group: good or bad?
35:50 Edwin's take on the SAII SPAC group
38:00 How big is Otonomo's TAM?
40:25 How the current SPAC market could create opportunity
43:00 Warrants are risky; discussing SAII risk/reward
49:30 What pushback has Edwin gotten on the idea?
Micro-cap investor Jeff Moore (who also writes http://ragnarisapirate.blogspot.com/) discusses his bull case for Thryv (THRY). Thryv is an interesting company: their core value comes from their legacy Yellow Pages business, and they're using the cash flows and relationships from that melting ice cube to start up a SMB SaaS service. Jeff argues there's huge upside as the company taps their customer base, acquires smaller competitors, and the market starts to recognize the value of their SaaS business.
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:20 Thryv Overview
6:15 Thryv Software discussion
12:25 Why is a SaaS business attached to a Yellow Page company?
14:30 Why is churn so high?
20:05 Who are Thryv's competitors
22:00 Don't all yellow page companies go bankrupt?
28:30 Walking through Thryv's SOTP
40:25 Discussing Thryv's management team
45:45 What to make of the CEO buying stock while largest shareholders sell down?
SHOW LESS
Eugene Robin and Ben Claremon from Cove Street Capital discuss the battleground stock Viasat (VSAT). They discuss the biggest misperception among bears, why they think VSAT's government business is a hidden gem, and how the risk from Elon Musk's SpaceX (and other burgeoning competitors) is overblown.
Some relevant links:
Cove Street's March 2020 Viasat deck: http://covestreetcapital.com/eugene-robin-discusses-viasat-on-the-valuewalk-podcast/
Kerrisdale's short report: https://www.kerrisdalecap.com/investments/viasat-inc-vsat/
Cove Street's Kerrisdale rebuttal: http://covestreetcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Satellite-Potshots-ViaSat.pdf
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:50 Viasat overview
8:15 Residential Broadband: the biggest VSAT misperception
15:45 Is Cove Street too close to VSAT?
25:00 Could a big increase in capacity create issues?
31:00 VSAT's all-in cost advantage and the SpaceX risk
36:45 VSAT's hidden jewel: the Government business
43:50 "Stock price bro" and capital allocation bear case
52:50 Why GEO can compete with LEO
1:06:00 Ben's quick run through of lingering points
1:17:00 Quantifying a reasonable bull case
Abdullah Al-Rezwan from Mostly Borrowed Ideas ( https://mbi-deepdives.com/ ) returns to the podcast to discuss his latest research pick, Autodesk (ADSK). The company successfully did the transition from a licensed to subscription business model, and with that transition behind them, Abdullah discusses why the future is brighter than ever and why Autodesk will benefit from an infrastructure boom.
Abdullah / MBI's first appearance on ETSY: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=muhNdYcNHgk
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:00 Being a generalist versus expert
7:15 Autodesk overview
17:30 Breaking down Autodesk's different segments
26:10 Discussing some more Autodesk bear points
35:50 Can Autodesk use their distribution to launch new products?
40:45 Analyzing ADSK's CEO and their LT targets
53:35 Noncompliant user opportunity
1:02:20 Valuation discussion
Will Barnes, co-founder of inpractise.com, discusses the investment case for Naked Wines. The company's been a huge COVID beneficiary, but despite a nice run Will thinks the market is underestimating the long term potential of Naked Wines and how advantaged the business is against the rest of the wine industry.
Chapters
0:00 Intro
7:00 Naked Wines Overview
12:25 How Naked Wines Angel model works
15:15 Why isn't this Blue Apron 2.0?
22:00 Naked's scale and business model gives them a cost advantage
28:00 Would winemakers leave as they got bigger?
32:30 Can Naked Wines grow beyond the angel wine model?
38:45 Naked Wines' data gives them a moat
45:35 Naked Wines' Postcard anecdote
49:35 Valuation and how sustainable is the COVID boost
52:30 Reasonable 2025 bull case
57:45 Potential "level up" opportunities
Jacob Rubin, managing member and CIO at Philosophy Capital, joins the podcast to talk about his long thesis on Eros STX (ESGC), how he thinks the stock could respond to a global refi, and the long term upside as they successful integrate their assets.
Disclosure: ESGC is a small cap and has a going concern risk; please do your own work and remember nothing on here is investing advice
Chapters
0:00 Intro
4:00 Eros overview
6:00 Pattern recognition from Loral (LORL)
10:15 LORL's upside optionality / Canadian C-Band
16:00 ESGC's solvable credit problem
19:30 Eros's history with short reports
22:40 Taking comfort in Liberty and Eros's CFO DD
29:30 Pushing back on asset value
36:00 Quantifying the post-refi upside
52:40 Pushing back on the STX upside
1:00:30 Pushing back the Eros Now Upside
1:11:40 Quantifying the upside
Philosophy Capital's Website: http://philosophycap.com/
Joe Boskovich, a partner at Old West Investment Management, dives deep into his investment thesis on WildBrian (WLDBF), including why he thinks Apple could drive the Peanuts brand to the next level and how WildBrain Spark could be a huge growth story.
Joe's Twitter: https://twitter.com/boskovic64
Old West Investment website: https://www.oldwestim.com/press
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:10 Quick discussion of IDT and their spins
5:55 WildBrain investment thesis overview
21:30 Devil's Advocate: Haven't these franchises been passed around a lot?
35:00 Could the Apple partnership get the Peanuts brand growing again?
46:35 WildBrain Spark: just another YouTube channel, or real growth asset?
1:00:45 How does this compare to LGF's valuation?
1:10:55 Quantifying WildBrain's upside ~3 years out
1:19:30 Bonus point: could WildBrain go D2C?
Shehryar Khursheed, the founder of Return on Capital, discusses the battleground stock RH (FKA Restoration Hardware), what Berkshire Hathaway saw in the company, what short sellers missed on the company, and his vision for the company over the next few years.
Return on Capital website: https://returnoncap.com/
Return on Capital Twitter: https://twitter.com/CapitalTalk2
Note that we had brief technical issues around the 22:40 mark of the video; we've done our best to edit those out but there is still a brief gap / jump. For those watching on YouTube, my video freezes for ~5 mins at the 17 min mark.
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:35 RH Overview
6:45 What is RH's moat and how do they build their brand?
10:15 How building restaurants reinforces RH's brand
14:55 Endgame for RH's brand
18:00 Can RH's CEO hit his RSU target of $800/share?
19:45 Is RH's 60 gallery target reasonable?
24:40 What do margins look like in the long run?
27:15 RH's international opportunity
31:05 Exploring the bear case further
38:55 What's the RH endgame?
42:20 RH's membership program
45:35 Last hits on RH
Al Grujic, founder and CEO of All of Us Financial (https://www.allofusfinancial.com/), comes on to discuss the Stonk market. Topics include Robinhood stopping trading last week, gamma squeezes, and how a stock can have over 100% short interest.
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:50 Al's background
4:20 Why All of Us restricted trading last week
9:40 Why couldn't cash accounts buy meme stocks last week?
11:45 How should Robinhood have handled their messaging?
14:45 How can Gamestop (or any stock) have over 100% short interest?
19:25 How up to date is short interest reporting?
22:00 Gamma squeezes and options
23:55 Market manipulation
27:45 Risks of social media pumps going forward
32:15 The "boring" stuff of revamping the clearing system
Mario Cibelli, the founder of Marathon Partners and breakout star of the book Netflixed (https://amzn.to/34cim9F), makes his second podcast appearance to discuss the bull case for WWE.
Mario's first podcast appearance: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1296130870949097472?s=20
Chapters
0:00 Intro
2:10 WWE Overview
4:30 Sale of WWE network
9:10 Laying out the upside for WWE
16:20 What if the next domestic contract is a down round?
20:40 Ratings since the move to fox
21:40 How the pandemic will improve the product going forward
26:00 Vince McMahon risk
29:40 What if the WWE can't find the next Rock?
32:35 The time I went to WrestleMania
34:20 WWE's other content plays and expansion plans
43:35 How WWE's rights ownership is an advantage
46:40 Our favorite SuperStars
Elliot Turner of RGA (http://rgaia.com) makes a repeat appearance to provide a quick update on Dropbox (DBX), discuss how a due diligence project resulted in him hitting the state limit for wine delivery, and then dive deep into his investment in Twitter (TWTR).
Elliot's first YAVP appearance: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJddlF3__Nw&t=3s
Elliot's Twitter: https://twitter.com/ElliotTurn
Chapters:
0:00 Intro
1:15 The time Elliot hit the state limit for alcohol shipments
3:00 Dropbox (DBX) update
6:50 Has Dropbox's pandemic performance disappointed?
10:15 Twitter (TWTR) overview
10:40 Trump ban: good or bad for Twitter?
14:10 Trump ban devil's advocate: engagement down
18:35 Why Elliot flipped from Twitter bear to bull
21:15 Twitter's failed sports rights attempts
25:15 Twitter's substack opportunity
30:55 Mismanagement bear case
35:30 How Twitter captures some of their consumer surplus
36:50 Valuation
40:30 Should Twitter charge for verification?
44:00 What does Twitter look like in a few years?
46:55 How Twitter gets to 500m DAUs
55:20 What to expect from Twitter's analyst day
59:50 Financial metrics to expect from Twitter's analyst day
Jeremy Raper, founder of the excellent rapercapital.com and our inaugural guest, makes a repeat appearance on the podcast. We provide an update on his idea from our last podcast (Brag), discuss a potential $300m+ investment he's looking to source, and then dive deep into his later idea, Haier Smart Home German Shares (690D).
Note that BRAG and Haier are both international small cap stocks; please do you own research and nothing in this podcast is investing advice.
Links
Jeremy's first YAVP appearance: https://youtu.be/X-nVRNiSeos
Jeremy's second YAVP appearance: https://youtu.be/PuP_c10B_NI
Chapters
0:00 Intro
4:20 Jeremy's $400 million special situation
8:20 Update on BRAG
13:20 Jeremy's new big position, Haier Smart Home German D-shares (690D)
20:20 Discussion of fungibility of Haier's different shares
25:00 What's the right spread?
30:30 Devil's advocate: why can't the Hong Kong shares keep running?
38:20 Devil's advocate: comparison to SPAC warrant arb
41:05 Devil's advocate: geo-political risk
46:00 Discussion of position structuring (naked long or dirty arb)
Steve Clapham, author of The Smart Money Method (https://amzn.to/3gwJJjb) comes on to discuss his new book and some of the valuation and research tricks and tips that didn't quite make it into his book.
Chapters
0:00 Intro
3:30 Steve's one tip for improving as a research analyst
10:10 Improving how you read a 10-K
17:20 clever research tactics and tips
21:00 Emerging accounting issues Steve's looking at
25:45 Electric car company discussion
34:20 Special situations discussion
Jeremy Raper, founder of the excellent rapercapital.com and our inaugural guest, makes a repeat appearance on the podcast. We discuss his recent views on the market, a quick update on his StoneX (SNEX) thesis, and his recent thesis on Canadian microcap Bragg Gaming (BRAG).
Note that BRAG is a Canadian Microcap; please do you own research and nothing in this podcast is investing advice.
Links
Jeremy's first YAVP appearance: https://youtu.be/X-nVRNiSeos
Jeremy's article on BRAG: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4391937-bragg-gaming-undiscovered-igaming-saas-gem-be-next-gan-plc
Chapters
0:00 intro
1:30 Catch up and the current environment
5:55 How Jeremy is shorting in this environment
15:15 Sectors Jeremy is seeing opportunity on the long side
23:30 Update on StoneX (SNEX) thesis
29:50 Brag Overview
33:10 Similarities between Brag and GAN
38:55 Red flag #1: Management turnover
45:40 How a recent deal suggests equity upside
49:40 Why Brag could be a better business than Gan
56:20 Brag's 2021 outlook and German regulatory risk
1:11:00 Management's recent commentary on relisting
Zack Silver, an analyst at B. Riley, recaps what happened at Liberty Media's Investor Day, including Liberty's bullishness for tech companies, Liberty's plan to launch a SPAC, and how Liberty has handled the pandemic overall. Then, we discuss his newest coverage, CuriosityStream (CURI), a new streaming service that recently went public through a SPAC.
Chapters
0:00 Intro and Background
3:30 What separates the best buy-siders Zack interacts with
7:00 Shentel (SHEN): the most interesting stock in Zack's universe
9:20 WideOpenWest (WOW): the most undervalued name in his coverage
11:30 Takeaways from Liberty Investor Day
14:20 Liberty SPAC discussion
21:40 Does Liberty have tech platform envy?
23:10 How did Liberty respond to the pandemic? Were they aggressive enough?
25:50 Zack's bull case for SiriusXM (SIRI)
28:00 Brief technical issues causes Andrew to slightly panic
28:45 Technical issues end, panic stops, SIRI bull case resumes
36:59 CuriosityStream (CURI) background and overview
40:34 Why would someone pay for CURI when they have Netflix?
44:30 Is CURI better as an acquisition target than standalone?
51:41 Can CURI succeed if Discovery gets more serious about D2C?
56:50 Is Zack more worried about Discovery or Netflix competing with CURI?
1:02:10 If CURI works, what do they look like three to five years from now?
Tim Bergin is a value investor and the founder of On Beyond Investing (https://onbeyondinvesting.com/). In this episode, he discusses his background, why he sees value in the banking space and specifically in the First Citizen (FCNCA) / CIT merger, and how consolidation could drive upside in the Irish banking market
Tim's Twitter: https://twitter.com/onbeyondinvest
On Beyond Investing: https://onbeyondinvesting.com/
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:35 Tim's Background (and cold water swimming)
5:35 Tim's evolution from credit analyst to value investing
8:50 Seeing value in financials and mining / commodity stocks
17:40 How to spot uninvest-able bad banks
27:55 Tim's Favorite Uranium Stocks
30:05 First Citizen's (FCNCA) / CIT merger overview
37:00 Synergies from the merger and why it's so accrettive
44:00 Could a large bank spin off a high multiple fintech company?
47:30 Overview of the Irish banking market and why consolidation could benefit investors
On November 10th, Great Canadian Gaming (GC) announced a deal to sell themselves to Apollo (APO) for $39/share. On the subsequent earnings call, shareholders immediately revolted, with several of GC's largest shareholders telling the company they would not vote for the deal because they thought the deal substantially undervalued the company.
One of those shareholders was Chris Colvin from Breach Inlet Capital. In this episode, Chris comes on to discuss why he sees so much value in GC, why he thinks shareholders should vote this deal down, and what comes next for GC if the Apollo deal is voted down.
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:15 Chris and Breach Inlet's background
3:55 How Chris approaches shorting
7:40 Why Chris sees value in timeshares and Canadian companies
12:00 Great Canadian overview and background
20:10 Why Chris thinks GC can earn $6/share in the near future
28:30 How the company signaled they were undervalued pre-COVID
30:30 Why Apollo's "big premium" bid isn't that big
43:15 Why the Apollo deal seems designed to low ball shareholders
52:30 GC's economic sensitivity (or lack thereof)
55:00 Timeline for Apollo deal and expectations for how it plays out
1:00:45 How GC could structure a deal that Chris would vote for
Breach Inlet website: http://www.breachinletcap.com/
Jonathan Boyar and Shrey Patel from the Boyar Value Group discuss their firm's background and their process for finding stocks trading for less than private market value. Then, we dive deep intro four of their favorite stocks: MSGE (owns Madison Square Garden), MSGS (the Knicks and Rangers), IAC (Barry DIller's holding company), and ANGI (homeadvisor + angie's list). Topics include why James Dolan isn't as bad a manager as you think, why MSGE's Sphere expansion might not be a disaster, IAC's pending Vimeo spinoff, and what the market is missing on ANGI.
Boyar Website: https://www.boyarvaluegroup.com/
Boyar Twitter: https://twitter.com/BoyarValue
Boyar Podcast: https://www.boyarvaluegroup.com/world-according-boyar-podcast/
Chapters
0:00 Intro
1:20 Boyar Group Background
3:30 2008's market versus 2020's
6:10 Why MSGS trades for less than its parts
18:30 Why do value investors love IAC?
20:30 ANGI bull case
36:20 Why IAC is spinning Vimeo
42:50 What IAC sees in MGM
47:45 Plans for IAC's huge cash balance
51:15 Thoughts on IAC's management and succession plan
54:05 Thoughts on IAC's other businesses
Mike Melby, Founder and Portfolio Manager at Gate City Capital, comes on to discuss his background and his investment into Amrep (AXR), which his firm owns 18% of.
Gate City Capital website: https://www.gatecitycap.com/
Show Chapters:
0:00 intro
1:00 Mike's background
22:45 Amrep's history
29:30 How Mike thinks about Amrep's land
55:15 Walkthrough of Amrep's Sum of the Parts (SOTP)
1:12:30 Amrep's recent big repurchase
Ryan O'Connor, founder of Above Average Odds Investing and Crossroads Capital, discusses his bull thesis on Nintendo. Our discussion focuses on all of the optionality Nintendo has, including what would happen if Nintendo licensed their games to Microsoft or Sony, how Nintendo cold roll out a subscription style business, and the upside as Nintendo continues to expand their IP into theme parks, movies, and TV shows. We also talk about the company's mobile strategy and how the continued evolution of Mario Kart World Tour could lead to a huge hit.
We also discuss his background and his investing style, including his big win this year investing in Gan.
You can find Crossroads Capital 2018 Annual Letter (which includes its Nintendo bull case) here: https://bit.ly/34pKpSR
Stanford Wyatt from August Partners and Rational Research discusses his background in investing and his investment thesis on Nordstrom and The Tile Shop.
Rational Reserach: https://rationalresearch.substack.com/
Abdullah Al-Rezwan from Mostly Borrowed Ideas (https://mbi-deepdives.com/) comes on the pod to talk about his new service and his recent deep dive that left him bullish on Etsy.
You can find Abdullah on twitter here: https://twitter.com/borrowed_ideas
Our first threesome was such a success, we decided to do it again! Dan and Matt come back on to discuss all of the updates on the BMY CVR since our first post; in particular, we discuss Dan's due diligence that suggests an FDA inspection is on going.
PS- CVR's are risky and nothing on here is investing advice.
You can find our first threesome here: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1305835912975261697?s=20
My updated take on the CVR here: https://yetanothervalueblog.com/2020/10/bmy-cvr-an-inspection-inflection-bmyrt.html
Twitter handles:
Matt: Given2Tweet (https://twitter.com/given2tweet)
Dan: Sheep of Wall Street (https://twitter.com/Biohazard3737)
Edwin Dorsey, the founder of the Bear Cave, comes on to talk about short selling, his new newsletter, and his recent report highlighting the red flags at Celsius. Fun fact: Edwin estimates he represents ~1% of the FOIA requests in the U.S.
Edwin's twitter: https://twitter.com/StockJabber
Bear Cave newsletter: https://thebearcave.substack.com/
Shomick Ghosh (aka Minion Capital), a Principal at Boldstart, talks about his experience as a Venture Capitalist and how he balances investing in both public and private companies. Then we dive deep into the investment case for Shopify (SHOP).
Minion Capital twitter: https://twitter.com/MinionCapital
Shomick's twitter: https://twitter.com/shomikghosh21
Boldstart: https://www.boldstart.vc/
Packy McCormick from Not Boring (https://notboring.substack.com/) comes on to talk about the burgeoning Not Boring empire, his experience in angel investing, and his current investment into Opendoor (IPOB).
Bill Brewster discusses his investment into QRTEA. QRTEA is part of the John Malone / Liberty family and owns HSN and QVC. Currently, QRTEA is undergoing some financial engineering which has some people recalling the classic John Malone special situations discussed in You Can Be a Stock Market Genius (https://amzn.to/32ApFqv). Bill talks about why the market might be overlooking QRTEA and why he's excited by the financial engineering.
You can find Bill on twitter @BillBrewsterSCG (https://twitter.com/billbrewsterscg?lang=en). You can also find his write up on QRTEA at https://sullimarcapital.group/2020/09/02/qurate-retail-group/ . I also did a write up on the QRTEA special sit which you can find at: https://yetanothervalueblog.com/2020/09/is-qrtea-a-textbook-malone-special-sit-or-a-classic-value-trap.html .
Matt Turk and Dan Schneeberger do an extremely deep dive into BMYRT. BMYRT is a contingent value right (CVR) established when Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) bought Celgene. While CVR's are extremely risky and there is a real chance of this proving worthless, Matt and Dan walk through what a CVR is, why a CVR might be overlooked, and why they think the odds of approval for the drugs underlying BMY's CVR are much higher than the market suggests.
Again, CVRs are risky, and nothing in this podcast is investing advice.
Twitter handles:
Matt: Given2Tweet (https://twitter.com/given2tweet)
Dan: Sheep of Wall Street (https://twitter.com/Biohazard3737)
Clifford Sosin from CAS Investment Partners discusses his investment track record, his investments in Herbalife (HLF) and Carvana (CVNA), and then dives deep into his current investment into Cardlytics (CDLX).
Marc Rubinstein from Net Interest (https://netinterest.substack.com/) discusses everything happening in the financial sector: how big banks are taking share during COVID, and financial sectors FANG equivalents.
Dave Waters of Alluvial Capital and OTCAdventures.com comes on the pod to talk about how he got started, his adventures in foreign markets, and his current investment into P10 $PIOE.
Byrne Hobart from The Diff (https://diff.substack.com/) joins us to talk about his recent "The Death of Fang+" series. We dive deep into the question "Which of Amazon / Apple / Microsoft / Google / Netflix / Facebook" is most likely to see serious declines over the next ten years?
Mario Cibelli, the founder of Marathon Partners and breakout star of the book Netflixed, talks about his background, how he invested in Netflix in the early 2000s, and his current investment in Uber.
We also dive into two of his twitter threads: one on how interviewing the management at Expedia changed how he looked at companies, and one on how a due diligence trip to a Netflix Distribution Center opened his eyes to Netflix's moat.
David Kim from Scuttleblurb (https://www.scuttleblurb.com/) comes on to talk about his research process and Carvana (CVNA).
An interview with Mike from Non-Gaap (https://nongaap.substack.com/). We discuss the corporate dark arts, how insiders profited from good news at Kodak (KODK) and Vaxart (VXRT), and more.
An interview with Elliot Turner of RGA (http://rgaia.com). We discuss why Elliot missed Shopify, how the lessons from Shopify helped him invest in Roku, and a little on ANGI and Twitter. Then, we dive deep into his thesis on Dropbox (DBX).
Our inaugural episode is an interview with Jeremy Raper of Raper Capital (https://rapercapital.com/). We start by discussing Jeremy's credit background and how he's looking at the markets today; then, we dive deep into one of his favorite investing ideas: StoneX (SNEX)
A new podcast from yetanothervalueblog.com, Yet Another Value Podcast will dive deep into interesting investment ideas with savvy investors.