Saxo Market Call: Recent Episodes
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Today, we delve into the ongoing development of the "super el Niño" weather phenomenon, running through the difficulty in assessing the scale of potential impacts. Elsewhere, oil markets and refined product markets are spiking on the latest escalation in supply uncertainties from the Middle East. This we discuss with Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen, together with the factors driving the recent gold and silver resurgence. Elsewhere, markets look potentially pivotal on the reaction to Wednesday's US CPI release as US long treasury yields are pinned at cycle highs. Plenty of single stock stories and more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links
- FT covers Nvidia putting together a financing package for USD 500 billion in AI spending with some of the world's largest financil groups.
- FTAlphaville asks how much hidden leverage there is in the hyperscaler AI buildout. The answer seems to be "a lot".
- The St. Louis Fed offers a deep dive into what is driving the steep decline in the US labor force participation rate, most of which looks benign and relative to statistical adjustments and the aging US population, but there was still some cause for concern from the June and July data on prime age workers.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, a look at how the market is positioned ahead of today's US jobs data and how a surprise - especially a negative surprise - might read across markets. Also, a brief discussion of polysilicon supply chains, which may surprise you, as China only dominates one of the key two production types. Also, a preview of the many interesting names reporting earnings next week. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links
- Aakash Gupta points out the potential scale of impacts if this El Niño is as disruptive as the late 1990's one, which he argues compounded to a cost of US 5.7 trillion over the following 14 years.
- An FT exclusive delves into how Google puts in place the financing pipeline to drive USD 200B of spending on Anthropic, especially to sell its own chips to the company.
- And Ed Zitron suggests that 70% of Microsoft, Amazon and Google's AI-related revenue is derived from the black hole of OpenAI and Anthropic unprofitable spending.
- ChipTycoon, an info-animation, shows the complexity of semiconductor supply chains in the style of the Rollercoaster Tycoon game.
About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, we look at the latest market moves as we position the importance of Friday's US jobs report, noting the reaction to key incoming earnings from Western Digital and Sandisk in particular and the impressive rally move in gold and silver. Considerable coverage as well of Victor Niederhoffer, a larger than life Wall Street figure who died this Tuesday and whose life inspired and touched countless speculators and professionals over his career, including this podcast host, Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links
- The all-time must read article for want-to-be speculators: The New Yorker article by Malcom Gladwell: Blowing Up, comparing and contrasting Victor Niederhoffer and Nassim Taleb.
- The Henry Clews book Fifty Years in Wall Street. This book inspired Niederhoffer's giving out canes to people who offered valuable inspiration while writing his column for MSN's MoneyCentral.
- Education of a Speculator - the legendary book.
- Recent (less recent than I said on podcast - actually latest I can find is from this February) Mark Spitznagel prediction on one final meltup followed by 80% crash in stocks.
About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, a look at the very strong day for US equity markets yesterday as the S&P 500 vaulted to a strong new all-time high amidst broad gains across sectors, with tech stocks roaring higher but the Nasdaq 100 not yet reaching a new peak. We look at the SpaceX earnings announcement and market reaction, including the announcement of a new Nvidia-chip based Starmind concept that is intended as the platform for the eventual SpaceX space-based AI data centers. Elsewhere, a look at the latest action in Macro and FX, especially whether the gold and silver surge yesterday suggests greater potential from here. Today's pod was hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links
- SpaceX's new Starmind AI1 concept - a compact data center unit based on the next generation Nvidia Vera Rubin chips that will start in earth-based data centers, but is intended for SpaceX's eventual space-based data centers.
- The legendary Barry Eichengreen on "The real message in the JPY intervention".
About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, a look at the broad market in a positive mood as recent divergences between AI hardware and other names were nowhere in evidence. We zoom in on Palantir's incredible quarterly reports and the wild and entertaining earnings call with CEO Alex Karp, wonder how SpaceX can deliver anything notable today relative to the company's valuation, and preview AMD, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, all with Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo. Macro and FX and more also on today's pod, which was hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links
- Yesterday's John J. Hardy substack post with many links, including on AI.
- John's The FX Trader piece from this morning, focusing especially on the recent coordinated JPY intervention and EURJPY.
- 69 Starship launches to get one decent payload to the moon? A Starship skeptic speaks out on concerns related to the idea of SpaceX using these space-based depots of fuel to extend the operating range of Starship.
- Arnaud Bertrand challenges Palantir's AI Sovereignty framework, although Palantir's results spoke quite loudly late yesterday, as did CEO Alex Karp himself.
- Tungsten as an indicator of war risk and once again, a mineral supply chain that China dominates.
About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, a look at the implications for a stronger JPY from coordinated intervention as the US has joined forces with Japan to force yen appreciation. As well, we wonder what the implications are for equities now that we trade with a much cleaner slate after reaching the other side of blowups in leveraged single-stock ETFs and the liquidation of the Situational Awareness fund late last week. A busy week ahead for earnings and macro and more also previewed on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, a look at the market returning to its past form as AI-related hardware stocks ripped higher even as the median stock on the S&P 500 posted a negative day. Also, a look at the many interesting earnings reports up next week, a rundown of the action in FX after massive USDJPY intervention and a Bank of Japan meeting and much more. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
John's The FX Trader piece from today.
About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, a look at the market's concern that this Fed isn't determined to get ahead of inflation and the impact on US treasury yields, which spooked market sentiment broadly in the US yesterday. Elsewhere, Microsoft's strong earnings report after the close is doing what it can to stabilize risk sentiment, even as the market soured further on Meta on its earnings call. Today and tomorrow feel high stakes with the negative shift in sentiment after the important FOMC pivot point, and Apple and Amazon are reporting after the close today. This and more on today's pod, which was hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links
- WSJ Fed reporter (no longer whisperer?) Nick Timiraos with a good quick take on the contradictory messages and takeaways from this FOMC meeting.
- Are the memory prices just too darn high? FTAlphaville takes a look.
- ArsTechnica reports that Anthropic's Mythos is finding bugs faster than Microsoft can fix them.
- Mike Green with a forensic investigation of the pump in semiconductor stocks in Q2 and to what degree leveraged ETFs were to blame (Behind paywall, but can be read for free as a one-off).
About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, we wonder if the back side of SK Hynix's earnings report overnight and the popping of the leveraged ETF bubble in some of the single tech names has now largely run its course - leaving the market for its next move - whether broadly up or otherwise. Certainly, a key event risk like today's FOMC and/or Friday's Bank of Japan meeting could serve as a pivot point. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, a look at the intensifying sell-off in high momentum AI hardware names, led by a an ugly meltdown in the two Korean memory stocks overnight. Meanwhile, the broader market posted a very different and far more positive day, an intensification of recent patterns. Also, we looked at the recent Alphabet, Tesla and Intel earnings reports and the coming reports from Meta, Microsoft, Amazon.com and Apple with Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo. Finally, a preview of the FOMC meeting tomorrow in the macro and FX discussion and much more also on today's pod, which was hosted by Saxo Global Macro Strategist John J. Hardy.
Links
- From what appears a credible source on X on the risks from the AI transformation to Alphabet's/Google's legacy "benevolent monopoly" business model.
- Bloomberg weighs in on the circular financing concerns linked to Nvidia after a spate of recent stories.
- Meta is fighting a mountain of social-media lawsuits, possibly worst legal challenge in its 22-year history.
- Ford joins race to build the next US light duty vehicle for the US military.
About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, we look at a few things that unfolded late last week in reaction to some of the first big earnings reports of this quarter and preview the week ahead, which is the biggest one for this quarterly earnings cycle. It's a big week ahead for macro as well, as the FOMC, Bank of England and Bank of Japan are all up later this week. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, a conversation with special guest Peter Garnry, co-founder of Gesda Capital on choosing and valuing stocks for the long run, observations on the current state of play in AI as expressed in equity markets, the Meta and other news this week and its implications, whether AI can truly scale as hoped and so much more, even what Peter is reading these days. I'm sure listeners will enjoy this conversation.
Links
- IBM IBM CEO interview we referenced on the podcast on the future of the AI rollout. There is also this newer one - probably a lot of overlap.
- The Abraham Lincoln biography Peter Garnry referred by John Meacham.
- and the John Kim book The Tao of Fund Raising.
- The Gesda capital website.
- John's latest FX Trader piece, including the impact of the US jobs data.
About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, a look at global equity markets roiled by Meta's announcement that it will rent out use spare data center capacity for AI applications, raising concerns for AI-linked cap-ex and all stocks linked with the "AI picks and shovels" theme even as it was read as a boon for Meta's stock itself. Software as a service and consulting names also rallied on the news. Elsewhere, Japan is intervening against JPY weakness, sterling is breaking higher and we have a US June jobs report today ahead of a three-day weekend for US markets. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links
- Ole's awesome article on the sub-7 kg technical marvels used by Tour de France cyclists, and the commodities they contain.
- Michael McNair TLDR piece on SiriusXM holdings and, among other things, why it might have large suitors for a takeover.
About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
John's piece: Wall Street at 250 through a Wall Street lens: Where we've been and what comes next.
Today, a round-up of another session with AI hardware momentum names rocketing higher, while the broader market was largely sideways. Elsewhere, crypto and gold are both teetering near or beyond key support at critical technical levels, while we note an ugly turn in one part of the US Consumer Confidence picture. Finally, a look at Rocket Lab's acquisition of Iridium as it enters directly into the space-based communications fray with the big boys SpaceX and Amazon. And, with the USA set to turn 250 years old this Friday, we note today's link of the day on the USA through a Wall Street lens as it turns 250 years old this Saturday. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, a look at the latest strong session for some of the market's highest momentum names, as we note with some caution the risks that leverage, especially not fully evident hidden leverage is a mounting risk for the most speculative corners of the market. We also preview Nike earnings as the company does not yet look like a bargain after its 77% fall from all time highs into yesterday's low, unless it surprises strongly today after the close. Some thoughts on macro, FX and much more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links
- FTAlphaville with coverage of the rising costs of equity financing on margin and concerns into today's quarter-end.
- Bloomberg also with coverage of leverage and especially the hidden leverage as some combine margin lending with options buying, even on levered ETFs. What could go wrong?
About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, a look at a much zanier Friday session in US equities than the almost flat close on the S&P 500 suggested as market internals have become wildly divergent, much of it linked to the market's bucketing of AI winners and losers. Elsewhere, as Volkswagen sets up a possibly 100,000 layoffs, in part on weaker Chinese demand and greater competition from cheaper Chinese EVs, and as Europe roasts with record high temperatures, will Europe's trade policy toward coal-burning China harden on climate grounds? As usual, macro and FX and much more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links
- See Friday's John J. Hardy substack, in which I discussed the AI winners and losers on the very day when market internals went especially haywire along the fault lines of this theme.
- A WSJ article suggests that one of China's latest AI models may match the ability to exploit cybersecurity vulnerabilities shown by Anthropic's Mythos.
- FTAlphaville with an excellent article wondering whether the current AI revolution may echo some of the impacts on labor and capital that marked especially the early decades of the Indutrial revolution.
About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today's John J. Hardy substack post.
Today, a look at some incredible volatility and cross-currents in the US equity market as Mag7 continues to come in for a beating as chip stocks soared once again. But then the two Korean memory makers stumble overnight, perhaps on Samsung announcing it my plow KRW 1 quadrillion (about USD 650 billion) into cap-ex over the next decade. Elsewhere, the market gave Apple the thumbs down for its greedy plan to make even more money from its customers due to higher input costs. Macro and FX and a busy event risk calendar next week and more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, the blow-out Micron earnings report is doing all it can to revive the AI hardware momentum trade, and it will be interesting to see how the huge jump in Micron shares ages into the options expiry this Friday. Elsewhere, the US dollar has continued its rally, but will fresh drivers for further strength be hard to come by? A focus on sterling's upside potential on the potential Burnham political revolution unfolding as well. In commodities, we discuss the latest on crude oil and gold and especially silver getting into existential chart territory. Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links
- John's The FX Trader piece on whether USD can find fresh fuel and special GBP focus.
- Bloomberg piece on a hedge fund manager looking to short private equity in interesting ways
- New York times piece on what kind of managers have demanded that their workers stop working from home.
About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, we look at the drivers of the stronger US dollar as it pulls to new highs for the year and what may be holding back USDJPY from participating in the greenback rally as those forty-year highs from 2024 approach. Elsewhere, yesterday's US equity market session was so far mostly only a one-off meltdown in high momentum stocks, with the median stock positive on the day. Massive interest and potential implications in how the market reacts to Micron earnings after the US equity market close today. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Link
- WSJ looks at China's attempt to "lure the world to the yuan" - and it's not just Iran and Russia that is taking the bait.
About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today's John J. Hardy Substack post - you won't want to miss today's links!
Today, a huge vibe shift overnight as Korean memory stocks come unglued Tuesday, sending US equity market futures into a tailspin. Is this just a bit of retrenchment ahead of Micron's earnings Wednesday after the close or is the market at risk of a bigger air-pocket? Elsewhere, the US dollar is breaking higher, but with USDJPY not participating at the moment on fears of intervention after Bessent-Katayama call. Also, some follow up thoughts on climate after yesterday's super El Niño / AMOC collapse discussion and more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, a sober and thorough look at the risks for key commodities and equities on the powerful El Niño climate phenomenon building in the Pacific, one that could prove the most intense humanity has experienced in many decades. Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy takes you through the potential commodity impacts and reminds us that some areas can see positive outcomes even if key food commodities and even mining output could suffer significant disruptions. Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo looks at the impacts for key equity supply chains, insurance and energy. This, a round-up of what to look for in the week ahead as the US dollar is in breakout mode and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links
- Ole's recent thorough survey of the key commodities markets that could see an impact from El Niño
- Ruben's recent piece look at El Niño risks from an equity sector angle, particularly the impact on supply chains.
- As mentioned on today's pod that while the equatorial Pacific is heating up, there is a "cold blob" in the North Atlantic, possibly suggesting something is going wrong with the important AMOC, the critical Atlantic Ocean current system that keeps Europe warm, among other impacts. Craig Tindale made a few comments on the cold blob on X and also links to his longer form post on how we are modeling climate change poorly, not properly appreciating feedback loops that could accelerate our climate impacts. Here is a good, "popular science" look at the AMOC and the feedback loop risks if the Greenland ice melt threatens to shut it down.
About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, we highlight another high energy day for the equity market, with semiconductor stocks screaming back higher and the US dollar continuing its move higher post-FOMC, even as we question whether the market is anticipating the future path of Fed policy appropriately. A focus on the worst performer in the S&P 500 today: Accenture, which was pummelled 18% to an almost nine-year low on fears of additional AI disruption even as the company scrambles for a new business model to have an answer for the age of AI. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links
- John's latest The FX Trader update
- Accenture knocked post earnings as it is scrambling to redefine itself - good coverage from FT.
- Izabella Kaminska with more of her usual second order thinking on how to position the USD 300 billion package in the Iran deal.
- Odd Lots podcast interviews the venerable Jeremy Grantham, who has seen a think or two in his 87-plus years.
- WSJ profiles the success of the Lynas CEO in building its rare earths capacity.
About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, we note the huge change in vibe and substance as new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh took charge at the Fed at his first meeting. He is a great communicator and put his stamp on how this Fed will be a very different one with far fewer hints on its intentions - i.e. no forward guidance to the degree possible. The initial market read was clearly hawkish, but while short rates jumped as a possible FOMC rate hike was pulled forward, the longest treasury yields fell. We look at the reaction function across markets, including in currencies and more as the market will have to find its sea legs with this new Fed. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Link
- As discussed on today's pod, interesting to note the GM-Lockheed Martin partnership announcement. It wasn't specified what GM might produce, but the Iran war made clear that the US needs a new approach to mass producing military tech.
About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, some last thoughts on the FOMC ahead of the meeting as the market is treating it with little anticipation even if this is likely to prove the most significant ideological change at the Fed since Greenspan left in 2006. Also - evidence from a choppy session for chips that the market nervousness may be rising for the hero sectors powering the recent market advance, especially given the max supportive move lower in crude oil yesterday, showing that lower oil prices have lost their impact as macro driver. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links
- Yesterday's John J. Hardy substack with more links, if you missed these.
- Craig Tindale's latest on "Who owns the chemistry that turns metal into power." Laying out why those critical materials are so critical and the systematic changes required to address the issue if China isn't to maintain its dominance and leverage.
- Peter Garnry on SpaceX and how truly rare it is to see the kind of growth that some are anticipating for this company - with only two prior examples that are even in the same universe for a company of size.
About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today's John J. Hardy Substack post for this podcast
Today we look at a fresh stunning advance in US equities as we reapproach the all time highs for the main US indices, with a wild advance in SpaceX shares perhaps one key bit of the sentiment "tail" wagging the overall market dog as we also discuss why SpaceX shares may have risen so aggressively, even after hours yesterday. Elsewhere, a breakdown of the RBA and BoJ meetings and their impact, what we're watching for from the Fed, observations on the quality and sustainability of the US-Iran "deal" and more. Today' pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, a look at risk sentiment in full swing after a successful SpaceX IPO on Friday and a stronger sense that the Iran war ceasefire may last long enough for shipping lanes to fully open in the Hormuz Strait, at least for a time. But while speculative energy remains high in equities, the broader macro picture is subdued, with little FX and rates volatility even as the new Kevin Warsh Fed marks the biggest shift at the Fed in a generation. This and much more, including the BoJ up tonight, on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy
Links
- John's The FX Trader piece from today, discussing the technical situation in EURUSD and previewing the seven G-10 central bank meetings this week.
- A 20-minute CNBC interview with SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell, where she talks a good game and even delivers the outlook for orbiting data centers with a straight face.
- FT discusses the many forced buyers of SpaceX as the company has been fast tracked to join many major stock indices, the members of which enjoy passive inflows.
- The Wall Street Journal with the basic, but important discussion of how Kevin Warsh is set to alter the Fed's communication strategy (an important first step, but as emphasized on the podcast - there are much bigger questions afoot down the line.)
About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, the usual suspects knee-jerked higher Thursday on Trump's latest peace declaration as crude oil dropped, while the other usual suspects (software as a service) were some of the worst performers ahead of Adobe's earnings release after the close. Also, a strong discussion of the status for gold, copper, crude oil and El Niño with Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen, a look at macro and FX and much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links
- FT suggests that the quantum computing revolution may be coming sooner than we think.
- Jesse Felder on the Thoughtful Money podcast, pointing out some concerning trends within the AI phenomenon and suggesting we are near a bubble top.
- A recent Matt Stoller substack post, mostly just encouragement to follow his work and to read his book Goliath and to point out his link to this old post from May of 2009 about Wall Street's capture of Washington - something that Treasury Secretary Bessent has promised to do something about. The new Kevin Warsh Fed will have a critical role to play if this is ever to amount to anything.
About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, a look at markets testing the lows again yesterday, but trying to put in a rally ahead of a huge market event tomorrow that could define where this market heads next in what could prove an either-or moment. Elsewhere, interesting market reaction to Oracle's earnings report after the close, and super-critical support levels have come into play for the gold price, which faces its own either-or moment technically and thematically as the USD remains strong. Lots more on macro and FX and more in today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links
- In "The abundance illusion" noted oil industry analyst Jeff Currie notes the risks the oil market (and the wider global economy) faces this summer as seasonal demand rises inexorably while oil has yet to begin meaningfully flowing through the strait of Hormuz again. Also, he notes China's "New Joule Order" which has its own tremendous implications as the country puts its energy system resilience on display.
- HT to FTAlphaville for another great link today, this one to a Kardamow substack article that discusses the same concerns Currie discusses in the above link, with some more data specifics.
- An FT Article looks at US attempts to piece together a "dark transit" system for oil tankers to transit the Hormuz Strait via a narrow and risk shipping lane that hugs the Omani coast.
- Stratechery.com has a much more positive take on Apple's AI strategy with Siri than the market's very negative assessment in recent days, in a piece it calls The iPhone's Last Stand.
- This year's Microsoft Build conference is seeing the company's Project Solara announcement, the company's attempt to envision a new operating system and network of new devices, among other things, aimed at addressing the transition to the agentic AI era. The Verge discusses this as well as Microsoft's broader AI strategy.
About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, a look at what the further acceleration in US- and other market volatility means, particularly for the highly speculative chip stocks that have seen the greatest gains this year, even on a day when the broader market and median stock closed in the green. Elsewhere, gold is melting down and faces a critical support level soon if the selling continues. This and much more on macro and FX also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links
- Today's only link is to an excellent FT op-ed "Why are we still arguing about the Industrial revolution?" that complains about the attempt to use poor quality 19th century data that provides few insights on how the Industrial Revolution transformed society and the types of available jobs as we attempt to anticipate how AI will transform our current society and the job market. Instead, we should consult the best fiction writers of the time, who provide excellent qualitative documentation of the impact of the industrial revolution.
About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, a look at the market trying to continue its bounce-back from Friday's meltdown in especially chip stocks, interesting news flow on the AI data center financing front, lots on macro and FX and much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links
- Today's The FX Trader from John
- The great Izabella Kaminska with second order thinking in an X post on the possible signal from China's ability to crater its oil imports.
- "Is the iPhone birth control?", asks an academic paper FTAlphaville links to, which is a study linking the launch of the iPhone in the US with lower fertility. Now imagine what widespread immersive AI will do...
About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, putting Friday's big market sell-off in perspective as an overdue development after the huge recent ramp in high momentum stocks. Broader risk sentiment remains fairly calm, though there is a bit of stress from geopolitics and higher oil prices, as well as on crypto and from a stronger US dollar and higher US treasury yields. Lots to focus on this week and next with the incoming earnings of note and the first Fed meeting led by Fed Chair Warsh next week. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today we look at fresh blow-out enthusiasm for a major tech name reporting strong earnings that blasted its stock into the stratosphere after hours yesterday. We also note the bevy of interesting tech names reporting next week, run through some macro and FX observations, note the key technical hold in gold, the shifting forward curve in crude oil and more. Regarding today's episode title, consider Saxo's outrageous prediction for this year regarding the SpaceX IPO and one of the main things - or perhaps the main thing - Elon Musk hopes to achieve in going to Mars (link below). Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links
- We took a stab at predicting the scale of the SpaceX IPO (undershooting badly!) and some of the true reasons for Elon Musk's passion for going to Mars in the Saxo Outrageous Predictions for 2026 released late last year.
- The Register discussed Salesforce' "waving bye-bye" to its User Interface as it opens up its data to a trillion API calls from other platforms, including increasingly Anthropic via its Headless 360, a programmable agent platform.
- The constantly shade-throwing Futurism (ironically a bit Luddite at times) with an article questioning whether CEO's are suffering from AI psychosis as they are out of touch with the struggle for AI to get traction at ground level in their organisations.
- Is AI making some people feel and act dangerously over-competent and what are the risks if so? (HT FTAlphaville)
About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, we note the very different outcomes for the two admittedly very different software names Salesforce and Snowflake as both reported earnings after the close yesterday. Elsewhere, insane volatility for Marvell in yesterday's session ahead of its own earnings report after the close - are the wheels coming off a bit here for chip names. Also, Gold needs to take a stand here or else, plenty on macro and FX and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links
- Michael Burry points out that VC has gone whole hog in AI, similar to the situation in 2000 with TMT bubble.
- Acquired put out a four-hour episode on the fascinating history and phenomenon that is Ferrari - these guys are great.
- FT with an exclusive on Ukraine turning the tables in its war with Russia - amazing innovation and rates of production for their at least partially homegrown tech.
- Stratechery with a brief discussion (paywall) of the SpaceX IPO, both quite dismissive in some ways, but also surprisingly supportive of the idea that space-based data centres could be a thing.
About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today's John J. Hardy substack (and yes, embarrassing bad math from your host in today's podcast)
Today, we try to keep observations balanced as we observe the latest race higher in memory chip makers after a big bank posted a jaw-dropping price target for Micron. This helped pull the broader market higher, as did the recent drop in crude oil prices. Elsewhere, we look at Ferrari's stumble with its new EV, note today's important earnings calendar, break down the latest in macro and FX and much more. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, a look at quantum computing stocks getting a big bump on public investments in the space in the US. Elsewhere, it remains all about AI stocks pumping higher, while one notable software-as-a-service (Saas) name was the S&P 500 index's worst performer yesterday. Interesting earnings reports are up next week on both the chip and the SaaS front. Also, some more macro and FX observations and concerns that we are none the wiser on the Iran War ahead of a long weekend for US markets. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links
- Blonde Money is worth a follow, particularly recently on the UK political situation.
- Passive investing might blow up the stock market once it has become too dominant, at least according to models. The discussion is rambling, but some great nuggets in there.
- The valuation maestro Aswath Damodaran puts together the case for a SpaceX valuation of USD 1.2 trillion.
- Nasdaq bending over backwards to secure the SpaceX listing will guarantee enormous passive allocations to the company very early on, whatever its general level of financial success.
- Peter Garnry of Gesda Capital has his own assessment of SpaceX after the drop of its pre-IPO S-1 filings. Worth a read.
- And the public domain shy Albert Edwards made an appearance on the Odd Lots podcast, talking the risk of double-digit inflation and the general mayhem that he often sees right around the corner. Always worth listening to, if not for any well-timed market call.
About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, the prospect of perhaps the most anticipated IPO ever is overwhelming the market's interest in processing Nvidia's latest earnings report, which checked all of the boxes, but no more. Elsewhere, the latest headline risks from the Iran war are pointing in the right direction, but pointing isn't enough - we need a deal to bring more profound relief to bond markets and perhaps as well to keep the USD bull at bay. Important trading day tomorrow ahead of the long Memorial Day weekend in the US. Today's podcast hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links
- Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen brings key perspective on the latest US oil and product inventories report.
- There is a risk that the age of agentic AI and Ad-supported LLM's could put the interests of the Ad-buyers way ahead of those of the end-users. Worth considering the potential conflicts of interest.
- Jeremy Grantham's GMO wrote back in January that if at least two of the "big three" potential IPOs happened this year, it could represent a risk to the broader market.
About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, markets are looking pivotal across the board ahead of the single biggest earnings report of the quarter as Nvidia reports after the market close today. Is the AI chip focus shifting a bit more toward inference and away from GPU's? Meanwhile, in the background, US and global yields have pressurized focus on broader equity market valuations and even FX is trying to come a bit more alive here on the rates focus. And that's all without considering the ongoing headline risk from the Hormuz Strait and Iran war. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links
- A radically new commercial and military airplane concept, the JetZero Z4 is getting serious funding for actual production and is set to break ground on a production facility next month.
- AI radio stations, DJ and all - listen at your own risk, listeners, or rather, biological processors. A very funny and fascinating experiment pitting four of the top LLM's against one another.
- WSJ covers the declining popularity of AI in the US- a slight clash with the scale of growth currently priced, no?
- WSJ with another piece, this once on US juries and rising lack of trust in the US justice system as well as the points of view of others on the jury. The implications of the "post-truth" society we live in - how can institutions every find renewed trust?
- Molten lead nuclear reactors coming to Sweden? It's not as crazy as it sounds. There is even an Oklo angle with this Swedish company Blykalla.
About twice per week, you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
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DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, a look at markets that are - and should remain - a bit nervous given the big push higher in global yields of late. Up ahead, we have some huge tests for this market, including Nvidia's earnings report Wednesday, a critical Starship launch pre-SpaceX IPO. And once SpaceX does IPO, how will that impact Tesla shares as the Musk faithful will suddenly have two vehicles to choose from. Also, the USD surge, sterling comeback, other earnings ahead and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links
- Bloomberg covers Meta's insane USD 200 billion data center
- A writer on Medium.com (paywall) questions whether SpaceX's Starship is a white elephant after Reuters reported the company has already sunk USD 15 billion into the project.
- And once SpaceX IPO's, what will it mean for Tesla share holders as the Musk faithful suddenly have two vehicles into which to sink their life savings?
- Saxo's own Charu Chanana covers the latest Berkshire 13F filings tracking their Q1 additions and reductions from their portfolio.
About twice per week, you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, a look at global bond yields setting the agenda across markets, the "nothingburger" Xi-Trump summit failing to make waves, the king of earnings reports coming in this week in the form of Nvidia's call after the close on Wednesday, a look at key macro and FX developments and much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy
Links
- Bloomberg article says power prices are spiraling higher in the US' largest electric grid due to data center demand
- FTAlphaville says that China is not Japan, but "its real estate market has been doing a darn good impression."
- Mike Green was on Macrovoices, talking passive investing, lack of inflation risks and potential for Fed cuts surprisingly soon.
About twice per week, you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, a rundown of the market largely springing quickly back from a vicious semi-conductor sell-off ahead of critical potential incoming news as Jensen Huang is set to join Trump in Beijing as we await the outcome of the Trump-Xi summit. Is a deal afoot on semis and more? Also, Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen on the outlook for oil, interesting signs of precious metals resilience given the backdrop, what is driving the big pop in wheat prices and more. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links
- George (not Thomas) Friedmann talks geopolitical situation, particularly Russia, US-China summit.
- Bloomberg exclusive on China's massive hidden debt piles.
- A brief and brutal assessment of why the UK can't get its economy back to the way it used to be, because things simply aren't the way they used to be.
- A hedge fund manager on why he steers clear of tech stocks.
About twice per week, you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today - a Korean politician sparked enormous volatility in the key chip names there on suggesting the idea of a "citizens' dividend" to be extracted from the companies' enormous profits. It's an important test of the chip space after the recent parabolic run-up in key names. Also, the lack of progress in the US and Iran re-opening the Hormuz Strait has the US dollar pushing higher on higher oil prices ahead of the US April CPI release. Elsewhere, sterling is under mounting pressure from political uncertainty as Gilts also suffer. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
About twice per week, you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, a look at the massive further ramping in the hottest AI-adjacent hardware names on Friday, although it was a former SaaS victim that rallied hardest in an ironic twist. Elsewhere, we note one of the more exquisitely timed AI-related IPOs set for this Thursday, while we await the historical moment of this week's Trump-Xi summit and the titanic stakes. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Today's links:
- Been reading Chokepoints as I have previously noted - a critical book for understanding the leverage that economic (and financial) chokepoints provide, and an important work in light of the heavily intertwined US and Chinese economies.
- An excellent Deutsche research piece on the "return of history" as gold is set to become a potentially dominant presence in global central bank reserves.
- And as noted, the Back Mechanic, a book kindly recommended to me by a podcast listener on getting your back in shape and avoiding the kind of trauma I am currently suffering with a herniated disk.
About twice per week, you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, a look at US market performance behaving very differently yesterday as some software names got a big boost on an otherwise negative day, in part on DataDog's earnings result. Also, an interesting geopolitical signal comes out of Greenland, while there is plenty to talk about in macro and FX even if FX volatility remains restrained, waiting for US jobs data and next week's critical Trump-Xi summit. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on today's show:
The Goldman Sachs research report on "Tracking the Trillions" in AI spending - very thorough look at many of the issues in understanding the risks in the assumptions about chip lifespan and much more.
An X post that looks at how the massive cap-ex spend on AI will drive S&P 500 earnings projections through next year, even if balance sheets are less robust on the other side.
Craig Tindale's massive work on how we are looking at climate change risks in the wrong way, with risks of ugly feedback loops in key systems that could accelerate change in ways the generalist models aren't.
About twice per week, you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Here is today's John J. Hardy substack post.
Today, a look at the latest run-up in semiconductor names, especially after AMD reported earnings yesterday after the close and whether this almost parabolic action in the SOX index is some kind of mania phase in this market. Also, a look at the latest in macro and FX, as Japan's Ministry of Finance seems to be out showing its determination once again to strengthen the yen. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, a look at the remarkable US market and its seeming immunity to any external development and what that suggests about where we may be in some sort of bubble super-cycle, one that has the host thinking of 1929, perhaps because he is reading the great book of that title by Andrew Ross Sorkin. Also, a look at Palantir's incoming earnings, FX moves and the US dollar and incoming earnings and macro figures of note. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
About twice per week, you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today we discuss the key companies reporting in this week's earnings bonanza with Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo, including Meta, Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft and Apple. We also note Nvidia's big drop on an otherwise positive day for the market - a concerning sign. Next week features several companies of note. Elsewhere, we note everyone rushing to declare a top in the crude oil market because of a classic Economist cover indicator. Really? Finally, a look at the macro and FX space, where the focus is on a strong bout of JPY intervention that sparked significant JPY volatility. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today - how the market is parsing the titanic capex plans for the four Mag7 companies reporting after the US market close yesterday. With crude oil prices spiking aggressively, maintaining the AI exceptionalism trade will prove difficult unless prices back down. Also, a far more interesting FOMC meeting than was expected as Powell vows to stay on and put up a fight for Fed independence, a fight that is doomed to fail. Elsewhere, Japan fights against JPY sell-off while recording today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
About twice per week, you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, a look at a modest market setback ahead of the single most important day on the earnings calendar this quarter, as four of the Mag7 are set to report earnings after the close today - each with its own twist, but overall with the focus on the scale of capital expenditures and cloud growth. Also, a look at yesterday's incoming earnings of note, energy (including of the nuclear sort), macro and FX developments and much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
A link for today: billionaire and trading legend Paul Tudor Jones was on the Invest like the Best podcast, mostly talking great life- and trading lessons more than markets, but very much worth a listen.
About twice per week, you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today's John J. Hardy substack post.
Today, challenging the notion that energy prices can remain here or go higher and risk sentiment can stay stable as we wonder where the market's pain point is. It's either that, or we must see clarity emerge in the Hormuz Strait to justify the equity market's strong sentiment. Also, a look at companies reporting yesterday and today, macro and FX, the Bank of Japan's meeting today and much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, a look at the continued incredible ramp in semiconductor names and whether we are inflating an incipient bubble, even if forward valuations in many case look quite reasonable. Elsewhere, we note the lack of progress in opening the Hormuz Strait and the implications that continue to multiply with every day and week that crude oil and refined products aren't reaching the global market. Meanwhile, we have peak earnings season and five central banks meeting this week. This and more on today's pod, which features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
About twice per week, you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, we look at the collateral damage in software-as-a-service land after ServiceNow shares suffered a nasty markdown yesterday after reporting earnings. We also look Intel's massive advance and other big movers on the day, and preview next week's peak-earnings season calendar with Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo. Also, a preview of the five G10 central banks meeting next week, with the Powell's swan song FOMC meeting next Wednesday. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, a look at a concentrated market rally in the US yesterday, led by big picks and shovels names in AI, with GE Vernova leading the pack, even as market breadth was flat and risk sentiment is wobbly elsewhere on Iran continuing to obstruct shipping through the Hormuz Strait. Software-as-a-service names were under pressure after the US market close yesterday on ServiceNow reported earnings, the first major SaaS name to do so for this earnings cycle. Also, Tesla earnings, macro and FX and more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Luke Gromen was on Macrovoices last week and makes some key points on the risks to the global economy and markets if this Hormuz Strait crisis drags into summer.
About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, a look at a key factor keeping oil in check - namely demand destruction, as shipping flows through the Hormuz Strait remain at a trickle or less. Also, the factors supporting a still positive outlook for copper even at these levels. Elsewhere, a run through incoming earnings reports, including the first Software-as-a-Service (Saas) name of note reporting today after the close, which could prove an interesting test for the whole space. Macro, FX and more also on today's pod, which features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, as the headline US equity indices finally paused for breath after their recent steep run-up, a run-down of incoming earnings today and tomorrow and single stock stories of note. Also, a reminder that the next 24 hours or so are critical for the degree to which headline risk is set to pick up from the Middle East as the US and Iran are meant to meet in Islamabad. Also, a look at macro and FX moves and what to look for in the Fed Chair nomination hearings for Kevin Warsh today. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, a brief look at waking up this week to the latest headline risks from the Hormuz Strait, which have only weakly impacted US equity futures, while European equities are weak out of the gate to star t the week. Elsewhere, we delve into key earnings reports last week from the big US banks, European luxury makers and Netflix and upcoming earnings this week, including Tesla and Intel, all with Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo. Also, a look at confusing incoming US labor market and other data and more data on tap tomorrow, a look at the US dollar's status and more. Today's pod was hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links
- Ruben's post on Oil, EV batteries and a cheaper Tesla: the next phase of the EV race
- Thoughtful Money podcast interviews a US freight market expert: early signs of a US manufacturing renaissance?
- On the Iran War, James E. Thorne says Iran is unraveling, not winning, and discusses the implications of this war.
- Michael Green has a catch-all post discussing Iran War, taking non-alarmist angle on crude oil outlook, the divergent outlook in the US for Services (negative) relative to manufacturing (positive) and more. (One-off free post option if you haven't subscribed yet)
About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, a look at the US market completing one of its most remarkable comebacks ever as it ramped off recently lows to hit new all time highs in such quick order, even as high oil prices linger. We note the types of names that advanced and the lack of market breadth, wondering how the market will develop from here now that volatility has been crushed and with the heart of earnings season on tap over the next two weeks. Also, a look at the remaining questions over Iran, latest action in currencies and much more. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, a look at the US dollar and risk sentiment now having come full circle and even then some in individual cases from the levels trading prior to the outbreak of the Iran war as the market prefers to continue to ignore the dire near-term energy supply situation and residual uncertainties, hoping that flows resume in coming days. China's stance is a critical known unknown. Also, a breakdown of the US equity market internals and themes, the status of private equity stocks, key stories and much more. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
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DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today we look at the further strong resurgence in risk assets, noting in particular the first signs of a comeback in some of the most beaten down names in software of late. Elsewhere, Oracle, the most beaten down name in our AI basket was the strongest performer on the S&P 500 Monday. Also, a look at what looks like a fresh bear trend developing in the US dollar, thoughts on the importance of the incoming Trump-Xi summit and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links
John's The FX Trader from today, covering the USD sell-off, latest reads on FX trends, USDJPY technicals and more.
A very long form interview with the great Craig Tindale on China's "gaming the system", the rest of the world's physical supply chain challenges and much more.
Shanaka Anslem Perera discusses Iran's short fuse on dealing with any disruption to its oil output flows if the US is indeed going after a blockade on Iranian exports as a pressure tactic. Also, did a US-sanctioned ship bound for China just slip through the blockade?
Macrovoices interviewed Adam Rozencwajg on what comes next after the Iran war crisis. (Sustained higher oil prices, he believes.)
About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
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DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, we look at the fresh pain for global markets on the collapse of US-Iran talks this weekend and the new US intent to blockade the Hormuz Strait, at least for any ships that are paying tolls to Iran (and presumably any Iranian ship?). We also wonder how China may eventually weigh in, a key question ahead of a supposed Trump-Xi summit set for next month. Elsewhere, we look at the latest winners and losers in the US equity market as Anthropic continues to make enormous waves for software and other companies. This and much more on today's pod, which features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
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DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, a look at equity markets that remain hopeful as key US-Iran talks kick off today in Islamabad, Pakistan. Even so, some big software names were under fresh heavy pressure as Anthropic's latest model release carves a path of devastation across the software universe. Elsewhere, we continue to highlight the importance of spot versus future prices for oil, check in on the status of the USD and JPY and much more. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links
Let's hope he is wrong but Brent Johnson is concerned that food prices will see enormous impacts due to the disruptions of fertilizer flows from the Middle East, even if shipments were to resume tomorrow. The first portion of his paid substack is available for free.
Stratechery does an excellent job putting Anthropic's latest Mythos release into perspective and has an older piece that it refers back to on "Anthropic and alignment" that discusses what is at stake for any leading edge AI company and its relationship with the sovereign.
Finally, you can read the latest grand Craig Tindale thought piece on the geostrategic positioning of the US and why it is doing what it is doing. He penned another piece on his substack that also provides a compelling framework for why the US is behaving as it is, that its position "rhymes" historically with that of Imperial Japan after the US cut off oil and
About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
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DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, a look at the market maintaining a remarkably resilient stance despite Iran casting doubts on the status of the cease-fire announcement that so enthused market on Wednesday. A critical round of US-Iran negotiations lie ahead in Islamabad, Pakistan for the next round of headline risks. Elsewhere, we run through the development in oil prices, the USD picture and incoming economic data, highlight what likely sparked an ugly sell-off in Palantir yesterday and more. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
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DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, a look at the fragile "cease-fire" between the US and Iran and whether it is mostly a US climbdown from its maximalist threats than any remarkable change of attitude from the Iranian side. Regardless, global markets have reacted in dramatic fashion. We walk through the reaction across asset classes as significant near term oil- and gas supply uncertainties remain. This and much more on today's pod, which features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, an assessment of the end-of-March and quarter-end melt-up in equities, where calendar and positioning factors are likely key drivers in addition to Trump's seeming urgency to wind down the US war in Iran. A bit odd that US military presence continues to mount then, isn't it? A look at ongoing supply chain questions, how the situation is weighing on rates and FX and much more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
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DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, a look at a US market that was under exceptional pressure as major US name sold off, taking the US market to cycle lows when the broader market and other markets globally are still solidly away from the prior lows. Also, noting the many pressure points on market concerns for class action suits against Meta and possibly Google, technical disruption boosting computer memory performance and even LNG closures in Australia, all while US treasury yields and oil are ramping higher again ahead of another weekend. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links:
Here is Triggernometry interviewing an expert on the risk that this Iran conflict drags on, but with some interesting ideas as well on how Trump might flip the script.
Here is the interview with Kuppy on the Benny and the Squirrel podcast, the hedge fund manager with some worthy observations on current market conditions, the general market environment and his approach to trading. Golden stuff.
About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
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DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Markets are aggressively pricing an improved outlook for global energy flows as US president Trump seems to want to wrap things up in Iran as quickly as possible to avoid further damage to his popularity from the impact on the US economy from high energy prices and weak stock market sentiment. But not all players in the Middle East are on the same page - so we're a bit afraid to draw any conclusions until more clarity emerges. Elsewhere, software-as-a-service names were under new pressure once again. We also talk macro & FX and even provide a little wrap on the Danish general election from Thursday. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
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DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today we look at the market-altering after effects of Trump's claims of diplomacy with Iran as he backed away from an ultimatum against Iran's power infrastructure if the Straits of Hormuz remain closed, and how nothing has changed on the ground, or on the seas, even as oil prices remain significantly lower than where they were before Trump's claims yesterday. We also run through the latest moves in US treasuries, a critical market for risk sentiment, as well as reactions and the state of play in major currencies. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Regarding today's discussion on OpenAI and Elon Musk's comment that "OpenAI is goint to eat Microsoft alive", a long-form X post on risks to the relationship.
About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
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DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Markets had been reacting to the war in Iran recently, of course, but perhaps it has been the explosion higher in global bond yields that has triggered a more profound unease on Friday and today. It's also a factor in gold prices suffering a massive meltdown. Today's discussion looks at these factors as well as the ongoing war impacts on the forward oil market curve and the whole commodity space with Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, a look at a market for which volatility remains very much pent up as we face the triple whammy of triple witching, weekend uncertainty and pivotal technicals for US equity markets. Also, a survey of key incoming news and supply chain perspectives as the countdown for physical shortfalls in supplies continues. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
As discussed on today's pod, here's a link to some of the key countdown clocks linked to supply shortfalls of key products that are not currently transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
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DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
The war in Iran has taken on new levels of concern after Israeli and Iranian attacks on gas production infrastructure in Iran and Qatar, respectively, with the dispersion of global energy prices exploding further on the news. Elsewhere, the central bank cavalcade continues with the Bank of Japan helping USDJPY steer away from new highs. The gold sell-off has suddenly accelerated and there are some compelling narratives and reasons for it to continue lower if these are important drivers. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links
First the link to Michael McNair X post outlining the big structural shift in what powers gold and why it is under pressure and could remain so here.
Then, the latest Goehring & Rozencwajg long-form report on commodities with great coverage of the scale of disruption from the Hormuz Strait closure, some long term historical perspectives on commodities and whether they are too cheap and lots more. Simple registry required to download.
Important - following link is highly speculative and I am not endorsing the views, but it's one possible lens for how the situation is playing out.
Finally, a massive tweet thread from shipping industry executive John Konrad on how the US may be leveraging this situation to further its strategy of regaining more control over global shipping routes and even ships themselves, together with other possible domestic agendas.
About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
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DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, a look at the market continuing to radiate confidence that things will turn out well despite the lack of real progress or any new clarity emerging from the war in Iran or Hormuz Strait. The market enthusiasm for memory makers remains hot and key player in that space Micron is reporting after the US close today. We also look at the seven of the G10 central banks up today and tomorrow, with BoJ and ECB particularly in focus for their guidance tomorrow, but with the FOMC up later today. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, plenty of headlines from the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz to keep oil prices boiling, if not yet boiling over, with plenty more to come if the oil doesn't start flowing soon. Are the US and Israel flailing or slowly winning? The opinions are certainly very divided. Elsewhere, Jensen Huang's tries and fails to pump up enthusiasm for sideways trending Nvidia stock, an interesting sign, while high-flying memory maker Micron is set to report tomorrow after the close. Macro and FX also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links
Here's an X Post from Chris Laub discussing a paper that describes why the current generation of AI hardware is poorly designed for the inference needs that are in highest demand and what the implications are - clearly plenty of urgency to streamline the output per watt with future systems designs, from how tasks are routed to the design of the hardware itself.
On the Iran War, here's one commenter making a reasonable case that the US has gotten itself in a mess with this Iran War, with few good options on what to do next save for just leaving. We are not endorsing this point of view, just pointing to it. And others think that the Israeli-US strategy is working as Iran's decades of preparation are being destroyed in a matter of days and weeks. Interestingly, Ilan (writer of the first post linked to above) specifically tries to dismantle the second link in another post.
About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
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DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, we discuss the markets continuing to price forward expectations that Hormuz Strait uncertainty will lift quickly from here, especially when one looks at the very steep backwardation in crude oil futures and US equity market sentiment. As well, we note that the critical signals in energy market pricing are to be found in key refined products more than crude itself. We also look at the eight G10 central banks set to meet this week, why precious metals are under pressure and much more. Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
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DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today we discuss a sense of unease that the market remains as complacent as it does given the magnitude of the disruption of oil and gas supplies through the Hormuz Strait. We also discuss Adobe's huge stumble despite strong earnings, FX and gold and much more. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links:
Anas Alhajji discussing important current state of affairs with the war and oil/gas supply situation.
A discussion group on the "US Dollar Endgame" with Michael Every, Brent Johnson, Izabella Kaminska and others.
About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
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DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today we try to try to find the signal amongst the general noise level and headlines coming both from the Iran War and the wider region and from the US politicians, especially regarding the status of the war and its intents. Most importantly, we try to understand if the US is actually playing a geostrategic brinksmanship card with China with this conflict and what the consequences of that might be ahead of a possible Trump-Xi summit at the end of this month. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
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DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, an attempt to assess the comeback in risk sentiment and retreat in oil prices and whether we can trust President Trump's framing of the war situation, as a "TACO" (Trump always chickens out) may be more difficult to achieve now that the US and Israel or on a full war footing with an Iran that remains defiant and continues to launch missiles and drones. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Global markets are rightly on edge about the situation in Iran and the disruption of the lifeline of crude oil, LNG and other supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, but the damage to confidence looks restrained relative to what awaits if the oil and gas don't begin to flow this week. This and much more on today's pod, which features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, a rundown of how various global markets are positioned relative to the risk of the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed for various time periods. Towards the end of the podcast, we look at why, even if the short term focus is on the Strait of Hormuz and whether regime change lies ahead for Iran, something far more monumental is at stake. Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo also breaks down the earnings reports and market reactions for key companies reporting this week, including Crowdstrike, Broadcom and Marvell and looks at three more key names set to report next week, including Oracle. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
The FX Trader post from today from John.
The Michael McNair post discussing with a priceless framing of the US-China race for control of supply chains as tension builds with the US' latest moves.
About twice per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
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DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, the market off on a cautious footing as crude oil prices remain high after yesterday's strong bounce-back attempt, with intense headline risk in both directions. We look at the latest developments and wonder where the US intelligence attempts to support Kurdish rebellions in Iran could lead, among other key questions. Elsewhere, Broadcom unleashed a massive forecast for its AI chip business in its earnings call and managed to get a positive reaction initially, the latest test for AI stocks. Macro and FX and much more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to four hours from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, we note the US market's out-of-step behaviour relative to the rest of the world, as US traders have taken a buy-the-dip stance while Europe was down heavily on Tuesday and parts of Asia practically crashed overnight. US market internals continue to throw off interesting signals as well. We also note that the market continues to price a relatively short disruption to shipping through the key Strait of Hormuz and discuss on what time scale the disruption would become more profound. Macro & FX and more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
As promised on today's pod, here is a great conversation on the Triggernometry podcast with two experts and their perspectives on the Iranian conflict.
Two or three times per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Yesterday's positive close on the US equity market was a head scratcher and we try to put together a set of reasons how it was possible as we quickly yielded to a fresh round of deep risk off in Asia and Europe overnight and into this morning. Some thoughts on the "energy overlay" for all of the major currencies should this conflict persist and the energy price spike worsen and much more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to four hours from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today we run through what has just happened in Iran, how global markets have reacted and the key developments to watch from here as we consider a few scenarios for where this takes us. So far, the market reaction outside of energy markets has been quite modest. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Two or three times per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, a look at the market punishing Nvidia shares, and many other AI hardware-related stocks in Thursday's session - was this mostly about options-related flow or red flag related to long term growth concerns? Also, a look at other names with big moves, including Block ripping higher on announcing plans to fire 40% of its workforce due to AI productivity gains. Elsewhere, some thoughts on macro and FX and SMC goes down a rare earth rabbit hole on one of the rarest of all elements as well as the future of memory, a key hardware tech space to watch. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
The Goodfellows discuss Iran and other topics - important for considering scenarios and the odds that something big is set to happen in Iran.
Two or three times per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Let's see if the US cash session (and the action into Friday's options expiry) tells us otherwise, but the market's very restrained reaction to Nvidia's very strong report might suggest a concern linked to the long term sustainability of Nvidia's prospects even amidst the incredible near term numbers. Elsewhere, we break down the results of other key software-as-a-service names reporting as well as some thoughts on Iran, a top geopolitical concern the market is ignoring, FX and more. Today's pod features Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo and is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to four hours from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
The AI disruption trade finally saw some consolidation yesterday, ironically the day after a viral report on profound AI disruption sweeping over the market. Elsewhere, we have Meta going big on its commitment to AMD and Nvidia and key software-as-a-service names reporting today after the close. In FX, the JPY is tumbling as dovish BoJ appointments have the market questioning whether Japan's PM Takaichi has any commitment to corral JPY weakness, which may have also provided the fresh lift in gold and silver. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Two or three times per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
The AI disruption overlay trade is now bordering on the AI apocalypse trade as a well penned research report intensifies the sell-off in names that the market fears the future of AI will disrupt. IBM suddenly the latest victim on the announcement of the latest Anthropic tool that might be able to update old mainframe software. We try to assess the landscape and wonder when and whether the selling stops, or whether the sell-off sparks widening fears for the market. The latest on macro and FX and much more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to four hours from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
With Ruben Dalfovo, Saxo Equity Market strategist, today we delve into how to approach and rate the prospects for beaten down software-as-a-service (SaaS) stocks with a systematic approach and how some names may have been unfairly punished recently while the business models of others are indeed in doubt. We also look at a number of important software names reporting this week, as well as previewing the biggest hardware name of them all: Nvidia, who reports earnings Wednesday. Also, Trump tariffs, macro and FX and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Today's links:
- Ruben's piece: The AI stress-test for software stocks: a simple framework to spot disruption risk
- The JPY carry trade is important to understand, as well as the risks should it be set to unwind in coming weeks and months.
Two or three times per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, another breakdown of the remarkable dispersion in the US market, with few signs that it is ending just yet, while Europe continues to soar on record inflows. FX is deeper in limbo after USD shorts were squeezed - important to see how we close for the week there, especially for EURUSD as we saw a very pale green shoot from the German Manufacturing PMI today for the first time in years. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to four hours from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, a look at a modest US equity market rally as we wonder whether those pressing recent themes within AI winners vs. AI losers have overextended themselves. In any case, equity technicals look pivotal here, as does the USD and JPY outlook in key pairs, all while we wonder whether markets, outside of the crude oil market itself, are too complacent in continuing to ignore the risk of the outbreak of a war or regime change attempt in Iran. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Two or three times per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, continuing to note the wild swings in individual names even as the overall indices look relatively flat on the surface, while wondering whether some of the recent attempts to play the AI winners/losers game has gone too far and if we could see some mean reversion. We run through a number of individual stock stories as well. Over in macro and FX we note the market shifting into limbo mode, which is raising uncertainty levels uncomfortably. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Two links for today. The one to a great recent podcast on all things FX, speculative stocks and more with Brent Donnelly and another some comments from Jeremy Grantham on the risks to the main indices if two of the "big three" IPOs happen this year.
Two or three times per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, we discuss the ongoing "AI Overlay" trade, note another AI-related company that is not a hyperscaler, but is set to spend up to USD 200 billion on capacity expansions in coming years. Elsewhere, we discuss the strength of US treasury and Japans' government bond markets and whether this is contributing to pressure on precious metals. As well, we ponder whether both the US dollar and yen might strengthen against the other major currencies and the next keys for sterling direction. Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to four hours from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, a look at everyone attempting to put on the "AI overlay" trade and whether this unsettles confidence in the market more broadly, or just deepens recent and very remarkable dispersion in the performance of many sectors. We also note the intense new focus on Walmart, which reports earnings later this week. Elsewhere, a rundown of macro and FX developments after soft US CPI data reported Friday and much more. Today's pod was hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
A reminder to have a look at Friday's John J. Hardy substack post with some great additional links.
Other links discussed on today's pod:
Izabella Kaminska continues to provide some great thought leadership on the implications of widespread disruption from AI and how it can undermine its own future if we don't think through this carefully - particularly this post and her own response to a comment on that post are worth reading.
As mentioned, Michael Every appeared on Adam Taggart's Thoughtful Money podcast with his latest thoughts. The overall uncertainty is very important to absorb from the conversation, in addition to the key points.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio delivered an important speech to the Munich Security Conference.
Two or three times per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, strong notes of general concern as yesterday could have marked the beginning of a broader weakening in risk sentiment, which has so far been avoided amidst the wild churn in individual stocks in the US even as the overall index has chopped around within the high end of the range. The worst thing for this market might be a sudden return of high correlation across stocks. Elsewhere, the JPY rally stalled out on a modest USD comeback as we await key US CPI data today, while treasuries showed interesting signs of serving as a safe haven yesterday and gold did not - stay tuned there!
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to four hours from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, a look at carnage for additional individual names on AI disruption fears even amidst relative market calm in US equities. Elsewhere, a break down of the US jobs report, going way beyond all of the headlines on the January numbers to indicate how little the wiser we are all on the actual state of the US labor market from this specific report. As well, a look at the chunky further JPY rally and whether and how a possible revaluation of the yen might unfold from here. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
A link to John's The FX Trader piece from today.
Two or three times per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, we discuss another session marked by notable divergences within the US stock universe, oil markets heading into territory that is starting to look expensive unless geopolitical tensions spill over into actual confrontation, the idea that the best things for gold and silver bulls might be for the price action to just calm down for a while, and the macro backdrop heating up with key US data ahead - especially today's US payrolls revisions, which are far more important than the latest data print. Meanwhile, the JPY is rumbling - can it roar? Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to four hours from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today's episode features a very special guest, Peter Garnry, CEO and co-founder of Gesda Capital, as we discuss everything from Novo Nordisk's performance in the wake of its Wegovy pill release to nearly everything AI-adjacent, from the market's rough treatment of software-as-a-service names of late to the outlook for Mag7 stocks and hyperscalers on their massive AI capital spending arms race. We also look at the risks of passive investing, discuss the SpaceX IPO and much more. Hosting today's pod is Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Link: The Acquired podcast episode on Google: The AI Company that we referenced on the podcast.
Two or three times per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, a look at the US equity market suffering it first real broad sell-off in a while as nearly everything sold off yesterday, with the negative vibes intensifying after the close on news of Amazon.com's titanic spending plans on AI for the coming year. Elsewhere, crypto suffered one of its worst days ever, unsettling risk sentiment further. Also, a look at macro and FX, especially the wobbles in sterling on BoE and political developments. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Two or three times per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, a look at a remarkable downdraft in nearly all AI-adjacent stocks, with no category escaping the selling, even as much of the rest of the market posted a positive and even strong day, the latest in wildly gyrating internals. We try to piece together a takeaway and wonder as well whether the European equity market performance has gotten overcooked. Perspectives on the Bitcoin sell-off, FX and macro and much more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to four hours from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, while the software-as-a-service disruption concern has been roiling for quite some time for many companies, yesterday's market action saw a massive new acceleration in the negative focus on companies that face a risk from AI disruption as new agentic AI applications come on board - some of them names that had escaped negative attention before. We look at a number of these names, other key moves in equities, the latest pressure on crypto and whether it can be stopped and macro and FX and more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Two or three times per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, a look at global risk appetite in a happy mood as precious metals markets have stabilized and the US manufacturing sector shows its first interesting sign of revival in years. Palantir shareholders were also able to celebrate their "cosmic reward" for sticking with the company as the company reported strong earnings after the close. Disney shareholders had less to celebrate. Elsewhere, the USD is back at a tipping point as bears need to make a stand or else. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to four hours from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, we unpack the Friday crash in silver, and to a lesser extent gold, noting that the Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair nominee news was a mere excuse for a market that was already showing signs of total dysfunction, as covered in our Thursday January 29 podcast. Elsewhere, we look at the general contagion of the metals volatility into other markets, including in rates, FX and equities, where we continue to monitor some strange behaviors that my suggest considerable market fragility. Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
The two links mentioned on today's pod:
Izabella Kaminska on X, one of the greatest observers of narrative versus reality and measurer of the Zeitgeist. Especially this post caught my eye today.
Russell Napier's most recent appearance on a podcast - one of the most important thinkers about the new market regime we are in and the need to ask the right questions appropriate to that regime.
Two or three times per week, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
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DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today, a thorough rundown of big incoming earnings reports, especially Microsoft (which likely drove much of the volatility in the broader US indices yesterday), but also Meta, Tesla, Apple and others. We also look forward to a busy earnings week next week with two more Mag7 names reporting. Also on today's call, a look at the market reaction to stories that Trump is set to announce today that Kevin Warsh will be nominated as the next Fed Chair and how to position this choice. Today features Saxo Equity Strategists Ruben Dalfovo and is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Two links discussed on today's pod: one is an appearance by Russell Napier with the Hudson Institute on "Understanding the AI oppportunity" and another is a WSJ exclusive (paywall) on the status of the US Clarity Act, which is a deepening of the regulatory approach to crypto in the US.
For our longer form podcasts, you will also find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
DISCLAIMER
This content is marketing material.
Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
Today - we look at the wild ride in silver after it hit 50 dollars an ounce yesterday and for the first time ever - can the run continue? Elsewhere, a look at an ugly day for stocks yesterday, particularly as the average stock suffered a weak day as we revisit widening divergences in market internals. Also, an update on the Japanese yen with new political developments in Japan, the outlook for crude oil, companies reporting next week and much more. Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to three hours from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
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Today we look at the latest surge in US equities, led by key AI stocks while noting that talk of "melt-up" risk has become far more prevalent. We also note what types of developments in the market might suggest that the end of this incredible speculative run is getting closer. A few thoughts on the decline in the Japanese yen and what, if anything, can reverse it, more on private credit and misleading calm in junk bond yields, links of the day and more are also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to three hours from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
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Today, a look at the weakest equity market session in the US in the last few weeks, with at least one key AI story triggering a bit of unease, while Tesla news disappointed. But macro was the headline stealer yesterday as the Japanese yen was thrashed across the board and gold soared above $4,000 for the first time. Also: today is crunch time for whether France can kick the political can to the 2027 election, the dispersion trade is getting wild and deserves our attention, speculative froth is downright insane in some single names and more. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to three hours from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
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Today, a fresh burst of speculative energy in the AI space on the OpenAI - AMD deal, which has generated some of the funnier takes from market observers as the level of absurdity is getting worse here. The deal is the latest step forward in what one observer has called the "AI capex endgame". We also talk the latest geopolitical bits and pieces, a series of must reads for whether this is an AI bubble and how it unwinds if so, macro and FX and much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to three hours from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
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Today, a look at Japan's political earthquake as Takaichi emerges victorious after the oddsmakers and the market got the situation completely wrong, sending the yen sharply lower. But will this initial reaction to her victory stick in the longer run? Elsewhere, France's political dysfunction takes on new urgency as the latest PM has now resigned. Also, Palantir suffers a glitch, market internals are ablaze with divergences, some great must reads and listens on Japan and credit and more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to three hours from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
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Today we look at many AI names and the broader market posting a strong day, if one that finished off the highs - while Tesla shareholders got a very bad, no good bearish candlestick. Importantly, we cover the big markdown in private equity stocks, possibly linked to the First Brands bankruptcy, as well as whether this is this is a one-off or the beginning of a wider contagion. Geopolitics, macro and FX, more links and much more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to three hours from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
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Today, we look at the US market blasting to a new all time high, apparently to celebrate the dovish implications for the Fed from the government shutdown, but especially from some very weak ADP payrolls data released yesterday, which pushed US treasury yields lower. We talk geopolitics and the crude oil outlook and whether anything can stop the run higher in gold and silver with Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen. Also, we note one asset class that is flashing red under the radar amidst all of the speculative frenzy. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to three hours from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
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Today we consider the risks of a US government shut down and why it is likely to happen even if it doesn't extend for long, what kind of damage it can inflict on the economy and more. Also, we note the sudden surge in the JPY as the wily currency is back on the rally path after nearly getting drop kicked above 150.00 in USDJPY just two trading days ago. Earnings, geopolitics, some great links to other content and more also covered on today's pod, which was hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to three hours from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
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Today we look at markets in a fine mood since the Friday close as treasury yields failed to punch into destabilizing territory and crypto arrested its decline and bounced back after testing below key levels as well. The next focus this week is on the risk of a US government shutdown starting this Wednesday, together with the key first week of the month economic data. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (with a one- to two-hour delay from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
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Today we make a structural, if patient call on the direction of crude oil from here, while also looking at the situation for European natural gas heading into the winter. Also, while stocks staged a decent comeback from the lows yesterday, we note some potential headwinds that could keep volatility high, with or without a US government shutdown next Wednesday. A preview of upcoming earnings and macro event risks and much more also on today's pod, which features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (with a one- to two-hour delay from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
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Today, a look at another weak session for US equities, with few stand-out themes amidst the broad weakness. The concern going into next Tuesday's September 30 government shutdown continues to build and could be a determining factor in whether we remain in consolidation-ville or tip over into correction-ville. Another factor could be USDJPY and the fallout if it breaks higher. Some key developments in copper on an Indonesian copper mine disaster, a compelling biotech stock story, other single stock developments and more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (with a one- to two-hour delay from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
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Today a look at the US equity market finally suffering a down day, perhaps in part as government shutdown risks are growing ahead of the September 30 deadline. We note increasing signs of a harder US attitude against Russia from the Trump administration, break down the latest disappointing news from Germany's economic data, what's going on in macro and FX and how one US lithium company saw as much as a 75% surge after hours after the Trump administration expressed interest in taking partial ownership. This and much more in today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (with a one- to two-hour delay from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
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Today we discuss a mixed session in the US, even with Apple and key AI stocks dragging the overall market indices higher. We also look at the latest boost to AI stocks as Nvidia decides to "vendor finance" OpenAI data centers to the tune of USD 100 billion as we discuss the performance of an AI basket of 24 stocks. We also discuss precious metals shooting the lights out while crude oil drags along with Saxo's Head of Commodities Strategy Ole Hansen and much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (with a one- to two-hour delay from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
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Today, we look at the still narrow US equity market managing to post new all-time highs, while the broader market is mixed. Some signs of froth are forming in this market as some of the most speculative stocks, including quantum computing names and one we profile that is really not much more than a bunch of promises at this point, are ramping exponentially on the latest news flow, even when earnings are years away. We also look at the follow-on reaction to the FOMC and Bank of Japan meetings, what to watch this week and more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (with a one- to two-hour delay from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
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Today we run down another solid session for the US market, with enthusiasm in abundance on the Nvidia investment in Intel, a development we discuss with Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo, together with the surge in ASML and Crowdstrike yesterday. Also, a preview of some names reporting next week, including recent darling Micron, key developments in FX as the US dollar is on the comeback path and the JPY churns post-BoJ. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (with a one- to two-hour delay from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
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The market was desperate for FOMC takeaways, but alas, despite interesting details, the overall picture was one that mostly validated the existing lay of the land, resulting in some choppy market action but no big changes in the macro or FX picture by later this morning in Europe, though risk appetite seems to be getting a further boost. Are equity investors overreaching soon? Also on today's pod, single stock news, a look at the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting tonight as the JPY punches to new lows in place and much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (with a one- to two-hour delay from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
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Today, some final thoughts on what could be a shambolic FOMC meeting, given the risk of a three-way vote and possibly vague statements, given the possible influence of newly minted Fed Governor Stephen Miran. Also, a very interesting development yesterday suggests Fed control of interest rates is slipping - or is this just a one off because of tonight's meeting? Elsewhere, the US dollar has broken down. This, some must reads and must listens and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (with a one- to two-hour delay from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
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Today, a breakdown of the market action yesterday in US equities, with big games in Google-parent Alphabet and even bigger gains in an "old tech" stock that has suddenly been revivified by AI. We also look forward to the FOMC tomorrow and wonder why the Fed doesn't go ahead and cut 50 basis points, even if they are most likely not to. Meanwhile, the US dollar is already breaking lower ahead of the fact - after all, isn't the hawkish scenario non-existent? Lots more also on today's pod which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (with a one- to two-hour delay from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
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Today we look through the divergences that continue to characterize the action across US equities, with some of the most speculative areas - especially Tesla - on fire on Friday even as the median stock had a rather weak day. As volatility continues to crush lower, this could mean we are headed for a volatility breakout, but in what direction? Also, a look at geopolitical developments, including in rare earths, some must reads and much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Link to Ruben's article on European companies with strong AI exposure.
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (with a one- to two-hour delay from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
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Today we profile European companies with exposure to AI with Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo, as we continue to wonder what AI names may be in a bubble. Elsewhere, we note ongoing divergences in this market, largely brush off the impact of yesterday's US economic data as we focus on a possibly pivotal week ahead, given the FOMC is set to meet Wednesday and the Bank of Japan on Friday. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Link to Ruben's article on European companies with strong AI exposure.
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (with a one- to two-hour delay from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
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The market is taking Oracle at its word in its longer term guidance on cloud infrastructure growth. We wonder instead whether an AI bubble is incipient here and if so, which dozen or so stocks should be in the "AI Bubble Basket" we are considering identifying as a talking point from here. The set of names we are considering will be listed on the John J. Hardy substack (see link below - please let us know your thoughts there!). Otherwise on today's pod, a discussion of other key single stock news and Adobe earnings incoming tonight, the key macro data incoming, gold correction risks, the US political storm set to intensify on the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk and much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (with a one- to two-hour delay from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
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Today we feature Saxo equity strategist Ruben Dalfovo helping break down what is driving the moon-shot in Oracle shares after the company blew the doors off of expectations with forward cloud infrastructure bookings in its earnings call after the close yesterday. We also look at the Klarna IPO forthcoming today, Novo Nordisk shares rallying on the company's cost reductions, the latest in geopolitics, macro and currencies and much more. Hosting today's pod is Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (with a one- to two-hour delay from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
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Today we look at the lackluster session in the US yesterday as we remain nominally bearish with no readily identifiable catalyst in sight. And clear that the catalyst would need to be AI related to puncture this market's confidence. The next best candidate would be Oracle's earnings today after the close, though we have no visibility on what they will report. Also today, a discuss of the weak US dollar that would normally be weaker still given the backdrop, whether the US risks a government shutdown and much much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (with a one- to two-hour delay from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
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Today, we look at the fallout from the US jobs report, as bonds rallied and the US dollar sold off, while equities churned in place, with many AI names under pressure. Today's topics also include the latest surge in gold, its drivers and where it may be headed, the turbulence in many AI names, driven in part by OpenAI's new initiatives making waves, previewing Oracle's earnings report tomorrow after the close, the macro and FX fallout from the US jobs data and political uncertainty in Japan and France and more. Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo, with Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy hosting.
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (with a one- to two-hour delay from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
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Today - a look at the market remaining in complacency mode, boosted by a drop in yields and later by Broadcom's apparent coming collaboration with OpenAI on new chips. Also, new geopolitical developments, speculating on coming Trump announcement later today (including on a possible revaluation of US gold reserves), earnings coming up next week, the US jobs data today, a general sense of foreboding that something big is about to happen to this market, and much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (with a one- to two-hour delay from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
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Today we run through equity markets trying to reset after the jump and retreat in global yields, possibly linked to the Trump tariff ruling as we await the Supreme Court ruling on tariffs as the next step. Elsewhere, Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo looks at the latest earnings reports yesterday, especially Figma and Salesforce, which both traded lower after their reports. He also previews what we should look for from Broadcom reporting after the close today and profiles precious metals mining companies (see link to article below). This and more, including some dark thoughts on history taking a dramatic step forward this week after China's Xi teamed up with Putin and Kim Jong Un at the Beijing parade. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Ruben's article on precious metals mining companies.
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (with a one- to two-hour delay from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
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Today, an attempt to root out the sources of yesterday's ugly bout of risk off, with sovereign debt markets quite possibly driving much of the unease as several countries saw new cycle highs in 30-year yields. We also break down the reaction, if inconsistent, across currencies to new stresses in bond markets as we await key US labor market data while the market doesn't know what data to trust. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (with a one- to two-hour delay from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
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Today we discuss the ramp in metals prices as we are finally over the summer doldrums, although the US has yet to open after the long holiday weekend. Something seems to be spooking markets overnight and into early European trading, and that something may be the fresh grind higher in long interest rates, with the long UK Gilt, for example, hitting its highest yield level since 1998 this morning. We also look at the impact on currencies and possibly the stock market from this latest rise in rates. This and more on today's pod, which features Saxo Head of Commodities Strategy Ole Hansen and is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (with a one- to two-hour delay from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/41sbzFO -
Today we look at the S&P 500 index hitting a record high, while breadth is lacking and the Nasdaq 100 is still below its cycle highs. In single names, we wonder whether Nvidia is struggling to find direction on the enormous options expiry today and together with Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo we preview earnings reports from three interesting tech companies next week, including hard-charging Broadcom. Some thoughts on gold, FX and more on the call. Hosting today's pod was Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (with a one- to two-hour delay from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
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Today features special guest and former Saxonian, Peter Garnry, CEO and Co-founder of Gesda Capital, who takes us through his thoughts on Nvidia after the earnings call yesterday and especially its medium to longer term growth potential versus the current valuation. We also cover Crowdstrike and Snowflake earnings, where Peter looks for investment opportunities when so many pockets of the market are overvalued, thoughts on the geopolitical backdrop and much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Link to Gesda Capital home page and Peter Garnry's substack.
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (with a one- to two-hour delay from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today, a look at how the market may treat the Nvidia earnings call tonight almost irrespective of the quality of its results if big money has made up its mind what it wants to do with AI names before the event risk itself. We also delve further into what is at stake as Trump continues to go after political control of the Fed, particularly for gold. Also: soybeans and lumber are two commodities that are heavily affected by Trump tariffs and the prospects for trade deals, the euro still could face a big test here, and much more. Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodities Strategy Ole Hansen and Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (with a one- to two-hour delay from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
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Today, a look at markets unwinding much of the reaction to the Powell's Jackson Hole speech, the bad vibes in Europe this morning as French politics are set for another showdown into a September 8 confidence vote, Trump's trying to fire the Fed's Lisa Cook and whether he can succeed, AI-related names that are nervous ahead of Nvidia's big earnings report tomorrow after the close, crypto markets on edge and much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (with a one- to two-hour delay from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today we pick apart the market drama that unfolded in the wake of a modestly dovish Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Powell, with market divergences more compelling to discuss than the speech itself and its boost to the broader market. We also emphasize that the week ahead could prove a pivotal one as the AI theme faces its critical quarterly test in the shape of Nvidia's earnings on Wednesday after the US market close and US Labor Day marks the end of summer. FX reactions, anecdotes, links and more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (with a one- to two-hour delay from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Slide deck for today's podcast: https://bit.ly/47eartf -
Be sure to check out the many links, including those discussed on today's podcast, together with the chart of the day, over at the johnjhardy substack. (available within two hours of this episode upload)
Today we focus on possible correction targets for this drawdown, should it continue, and welcome Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo to the pod, who leads us through his assessment of Nvidia going into next Wednesday's critical earnings call. The China angle for Nvidia is picking up interest of late - will China try to "go it alone" entirely on AI silicon and systems? Also on the pod, a reminder to keep an eye on the JGB market, which continues to pressurize, a look at the Jackson Hole speech incoming later, a preview of other earnings and the economic calendar and much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
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Today, we note that dip-buyers won the day yesterday after a further acceleration of the sell-off, but that the entire volatile experience has further revealed the fragility of this market. We also note reactions to incoming earnings, the pressure on long bonds easing with the important major exception of Japan, the latest in currencies, some must reads if you would like to delve deeper into the Palantir phenomenon and much more. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (with a one- to two-hour delay from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Yesterday saw Palantir shares leading the decliners on Wall Street as tech and crypto stocks were hammered yesterday even as the average stock didn't perform terribly on the day. With a drawdown of more than 15% after a noted short seller threw shade on the stock's valuation, has Palantir finally seen a major peak? Elsewhere today, we look at the heavy action across the currency space, bonds not yet serving as a safe haven, and what is ailing gold and especially silver at the moment, noting major moves in other softs markets as well. Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (with a one- to two-hour delay from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today, we look at an unremarkable US equity market session while we continue to watch for signs of trouble after recent divergences and shifts in the internals. A key focus today on very long bond yields rising to cycle highs, especially dangerous for the UK with its external deficits - when does the penny drop for the pound? Meanwhile, the very low volatility across asset markets belies the spring loaded risks from the next policy choices should bonds come under additional pressure. Some great links today on Meta, the US mid-terms, and more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (with a one- to two-hour delay from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Link to today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/4fIGOCj -
This week we face an extension of geopolitical tensions as we await the outcome of the bargaining process over the terms of a ceasefire in the Ukraine war after Trump and Putin failed to announce anything concrete. Meanwhile, we look at signs of both uncertainty and wobbliness in animal spirits as crypto nosedives at the start of the week and we consider the technical lay of the land for the US S&P 500 index. Earnings and macro calendar this week, links of the day and much more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (with a one- to two-hour delay from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today we break down another day of wild divergences relative to recent market action, as former dud sectors are suddenly outperforming like crazy, a sudden vibe shift that feels significant, if mysterious. As well, we note the volatility in US treasury markets and FX on Treasury Secretary Bessent's latest dovish comments on where Fed policy should be and on need for the BoJ to hike rates. Also on today's podcast, Apple's slate of new hardware products, upcoming macro and earnings releases, today's links and more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (with a one- to two-hour delay from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today we look at the explosive reaction to the US July CPI release, which failed to confirm fears that Trump tariffs would feed into hotter headline inflation - but was this one-off algorithmic squeeze or something more durable? Also, a delving into the different moving parts of inflation, one major category of which could prove deflationary, a look at the macro and FX reaction to the US CPI data, Circle Internet execs doing a money grab, Coreweave dumped as it struggles with costs and more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (with a one- to two-hour delay from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today we run through the important US July CPI data release today, the first data point that is arguably fully showing Trump tariff impacts. We break down the possible reaction functions across markets, including gold, rates, and currencies as we await evidence that stagflation remains the most likely scenario from here. We also revisit the lithium and rare earths discussion after the pop in lithium stocks yesterday and point out significant market divergences in the US equity market, noting that some previous similar episodes have marked major pivot points in the market action. Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (with a one- to two-hour delay from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today, a look at the strong close to the equity market action on Friday and the ongoing speculative fervor in key areas of the market, with Bitcoin pushing near all time highs today. Also: a look at Apple's big comeback above its 200-day moving average and its massive pivot into AI, with all of the risks and opportunities that brings. Lithium and lithium stocks are a hot topic as well after China shutdown a key mine for three months. Looking ahead, we wonder if the US CPI release tomorrow can throw some cold water on the markets. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (with a one- to two-hour delay from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/4oGwhfc -
Today we cover the chaos in the gold market on the US moving to tariff certain classes of bullion, Trump's executive order to allow bitcoin and cryptocurrency holdings in 401k accounts, geopolitics and crude, and most importantly, the possibly massive implications of Trump's nomination of Stephen Miran to occupy the empty seat on the Fed Board. Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (with a one or two hour delay from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today, we run down some of the odd factors in this market that are keeping us on the edge of our seat that something weird, and possibly ominous, is brewing, if disguised by the wall of retail, passive and corporate buyback bids in this market. We also talk incoming earnings and strong reactions to those, macro and FX and today's latest batch of must reads and listens. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (with a one or two hour delay from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today, we await the imminent announcement of the identity of the next Fed Chair as Trump has two empty Fed board seats to play with and could fill one of them with his next Fed Chair nominee. We also talk earnings yesterday (AMD, Supermicro and Novo Nordisk) and upcoming earnings today, whether the USD bears are set to get the upper hand again here, key resistance that is still in place for US equities, some great links and more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (with a one or two hour delay from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
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Today, we note that US stocks have closed last week's gap in the major indices. Do bears re-engage or get trampled by the bulls? We round up the blowout Palantir earnings, look at the next key AI names to report today and discuss some great links, including one that is supports the idea that bearish concerns are misplaced in an era of fiscal dominance, in a policy mix possibly unlike anything we have seen since at least the 1940's and structurally, unlike anything we have seen ever. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (with a one or two hour delay from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
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The overdue US equity market correction finally arrived. Will this just prove a healthy correction or are the cracks beginning to show, pointing to something bigger afoot? It is certainly clear that the data is not giving us any real clue of the status of the US labor market after Friday's shock negative revisions to payrolls. Also on today's podcast, we discuss listed rare earth companies and an ETF, the situation in industrial and precious metals, geopolitics, critical incoming earnings, important listens and links and more. Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodities Strategy Ole Hansen, with Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy hosting.
Links discussed on the podcast can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (with a one or two hour delay from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Link to today's slide deck. -
Today, a look at a very unusual and very climactic third consecutive outside day on the Nasdaq 100 index, as the intraday rally tested all time new highs before selling started that accelerated on Amazon.com's earnings after the close. Also, a look at Europe struggling mightily today and some of the mighty that have fallen of late. Huge focus today as well on the US July jobs report and how it will impact the US dollar, as well as a preview of critical names reporting earnings next week. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (with a one or two hour delay from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today, a look at Meta blasting it out of the park in its latest earnings report, though this could be about as good as it gets for a company of its size, and its roadmap has some "questionable" elements. Microsoft also surprised, sending Mag7 sentiment higher ahead of two further Mag7 names to report today - Apple and Amazon. Also, a look at Trump's latest tariff announcements, the FOMC and Bank of Japan meetings and USDJPY levels and more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (with a one or two hour delay from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today, a run down the gauntlet of risks that this market has to navigate in the coming two weeks, from earnings and US data to geopolitics and other factors as we fret that a reasonable consolidation at minimum is imminent, and even if it isn't, would further destabilize the course of future returns. A discussion of Meta reporting today, Novo Nordisk's profit warning and whether the bottom is near for that company and much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Links discussed on the podcast can be found on the johnjhardy substack (with a one or two hour delay from the time of the podcast release).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today, we look at the downdraft in the euro and European stocks yesterday and wonder if this is merely a kneejerk reaction to the EU-US trade deal or the start of something bigger. We also run down a few big movers in the US yesterday as the AI theme remains strong in the "shovel" space in AI (those who make the hardware driving AI data centers). Finally, we use Visa's valuation to demonstrate the rich valuation in US equities, look at levels for major Euro crosses and gold and silver, break down the US macro data up today and more. Today's pod hosted by John J. Hardy, Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy.
Link to John's substack for more links to Saxo and other content.
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Today, a look at the reaction to the EU-US trade deal struck at the weekend, as some may be surprised to see a weaker euro on the back of this. Elsewhere, we talk Physical AI and an interesting ETF that has exposure to the space, the comeback in risk sentiment, the rise of Chinese luxury and more. Hosting today's pod is Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Link to John J. Hardy's substack.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3H3NZbk -
Today, a look at a US equity market showing remarkable complacency, with some initial signs that things are wobbling. But we have a monumental week ahead as earnings season peaks and we look at the cavalcade of event risks on top of that, including FOMC and not least, the BoJ, as well as the US jobs report and Trump's trade deal headline. Full slide deck today, with must reads and listens.
Link to John's latest FX Update: https://bit.ly/4716GqK
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Today, a roundup of the key earnings reported after the close yesterday - especially Tesla, which dumped more than 5% on dire results as well as on CEO Elon Musk's guidance for the next few quarters. This inspired a little deep dive into the autonomous driving space, as we discuss Alphabet's Waymo and a surprising possible competitor in the coming years that isn't Tesla. Also, we look at Alphabet's positive report, the latest in FX and a look ahead at today's key earnings reports and more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
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Today, a look at the US-Japan trade deal and the market reaction, especially forceful in Japan. Elsewhere, we rundown the first really impactful earnings reports for this quarter as Google-parent Alphabet, Tesla and IBM are set to report earnings after the close today. IBM has a "new" angle that could see considerable focus. Also, a look at FX, incoming event risks and much more. Hosting the pod is Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/46utCye -
Today we note interesting divergences in the US equity market as the Nasdaq posted an ugly session while small caps surged. We also look at three key event risks for the US dollar and global markets in the coming week, round up the commodity market performance in the first half of the year and discuss the themes we expect to emerge in the second half. A great list of must reads in the slide deck and more. Today's pod with Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy hosting.
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Today we discuss whether the massive concentration in the US equity market is a bug or a feature, noting that market breadth is the worst ever at a major new market high by at least one measure. Elsewhere, we break down the commodity performance for the first half of the year, talk gold's comeback from key support, the lay of the land in currencies, Apple's rally, Tesla dump late yesterday on a new Musk-Trump exchange and much more. Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/4kcqDOm -
Today, wondering if the US market is pricing a bit too much perfection and complacency, though hard to find any specific flashing red lights. Also, a rundown of the weak USD picture, gold chart technicals, Nike earnings, a profile of two interesting companies on a crazy moonshot, this week's must reads and listens and much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
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Today, a look at Nvidia's new all time high, which actually came before news of Micron's very strong earnings report after the close that reassured investors in AI data center stocks. Also, the USD has rushed to new lows on intensifying speculation that Trump will nominate a new and dovish Fed Chair soon and well ahead of the end of Powell's term in May of next year. Finally, a preview of Nike's earnings after the close today and much more on today's pod, which features Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
John's FX Update from today.
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Today we look at another day of strong market sentiment as the US Nasdaq 100 index hit an all time high yesterday, with the broader market still lagging a bit. Lots of company specific news to discuss as stablecoin mania continues to roil key names and as the chip and AI tech with AMD rallying hard on upgrades to their outlook from analysis. Stocks related to AI data centers, including Nvidia should hotly anticipate the Micron earnings report after the close in the US today. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
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Today we discuss how Iran's staged response to US bombings mostly crushed the geopolitical tension premium in crude oil and gave a big boost to global risk sentiment, which also enjoyed another Fed member waxing dovish, sending US yields lower. Also, Tesla couldn't have timed its autonomous driving service debut better, as the stock soared despite shaky performance in at least one report. This and a discussion of gold and more on today's pod, which features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen, with Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy hosting.
John's FX Update from today.
Today we talk through the US "Operation Midnight Hammer" bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities and the implications from here, as well as why we have seen limited fallout for global markets thus far. As well, we discuss why the JPY is suffering a fresh pounding overnight for reasons entirely unrelated to geopolitics. This and much more on today's pod, which features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/4e7CyLM -
Today, a full-service podcast with slide deck: we talk crude oil and risk appetite as Trump tries to press pause on the Iran-Israel conflict, the metals and grains outlook as wheat has caught a significant bid, the FX lay of the land, Tesla's high-stakes upcoming weekend and much more, including some links to other great content. Today's pod with Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Link to John's June 19th FX Webinar
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Today - a look at the FOMC meeting, which saw the Fed smelling stronger stagflationary risks, while the US dollar rose across the board on the failure of the Fed to wax more dovish perhaps. Elsewhere, we look at the latest interesting batch of US data and the latest on Iran-Israel. In stocks, we discuss Coinbase leading the gainers among S&P 500 stocks on the rise in stablecoin uses, which also drove two superstar stocks to post the worst declines of all S&P 500 members yesterday. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
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Link to John's Mastering FX Webinar tomorrow Thursday, June 19.
Today, a look at how this Israel-Iran conflict moves toward a "conclusion", with the risk that Israel has maximalist goals leaning toward regime change, so the timeline of the conflict is more likely to remain extended. Elsewhere, we look at the FOMC meeting today and the likely outcomes, as well as how the market "pricing" of the Fed's policy trajectory may be very misleading on what actually happens. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/4jP99HK -
Today we talk through the impact across markets from Israel's attacks on Iran and how difficult it is to sustain a focus on geopolitics or trust the knee-jerk reaction. We also discuss what was happening before the geopolitical situation suddenly heated up as fresh weak US labor market data sent the USD overboard - or did it? A preview of the massive week ahead in macro event risks, the latest on the commodities space and much more on today's pod, which features Saxo Head of Commodities Strategy Ole Hansen, with Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy hosting.
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Today, can't help but turn more bearish on equities as the US trade policy issue finally adds some more bite and as the broader concern on the trajectory of the US economy may be picking up here. The US dollar is certainly headed south versus the euro again, and USDJPY is making a show of selling off - can the move stick this time? Thoughts on the Fed possibly cutting earlier than expected, Oracle blowout earnings and much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
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Today a quick update on another strong day for risk sentiment as the AI focus is reheating with a significant rise in AI commitments from Meta and even Intel showing signs of life. Also, a quick rundown on the important of today's US CPI release for May and some thoughts on what is at stake here if Trump's coalition is increasingly fragile and the implications if so. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
John's final article in four-part series on Rules for the Trump 2.0 Market Era.
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Today we look at a market that shows signs of lower volatility and rising complacency as we wonder what will provide the next catalyst - perhaps tomorrow's US May CPI release? Also, some thoughts on whether Trump's "madman" strategy is the right way to view what he is doing in trade negotiations. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy, John J. Hardy.
Link to John's latest FX Update (From June 10)
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3ZlIZVD
Today, we look at whether the major Musk-Trump rift was one of the chief drivers of weak risk sentiment in US markets yesterday even beyond the Tesla fallout, as we also got further evidence of weak US labor market data. In markets, the standout development was silver ripping through resistance and posting new 13-year highs. Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen, hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
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Today, we discuss yesterday's weak US numbers cratering the US dollar, if once again not decisively, and boosting US treasuries. Equities provided little inspiration and it feels like the market is at a loss with what to do here with a crossfire of three massive issues possibly pulling things in very different directions. Today's podcast hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
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Today, a look at global equities and the US dollar on tilt as a new week and a new month get underway as geopolitical and trade tensions ratchet higher again, especially on Trump's doubling of steel and aluminum tariffs (was this in response to his finding out about the "TACO trade"? (Trump Always Chickens Out)). A rundown of the raft of the key US data up this week ahead and more also on the pod, which is hosted today by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
John's latest FX Update.
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Today we look at what looked like a key reversal day for the near term yesterday - as the US equity market rolled over after attempting to pierce key resistance, and the US dollar rally attempt was likewise crushed. Also, we cover the Nvidia earnings, some key provisions in the "big beautiful bill" that could spell trouble for US markets and the USD and more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
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Risk sentiment is positive ahead of the next critical event that will determine whether the US market can achieve new all-time highs: the Nvidia's earnings call after the close today. Elsewhere, still signs of trouble in Japan's bond market, even as the pressure on the US treasury market has continued to ease, helping fuel risk sentiment. Thoughts on gold, crude, uranium and more also on the pod, which features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
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Today a look at Japanese Government Bond yields getting crushed overnight on signs that the MoF is planning to tweak its issuance to avoid further pressure on long yields. This inspired a JPY sell-off and the US dollar has backed up across the board as well. Elsewhere, risk appetite is in fine form, if we have some longer term concerns on heavy retail participation. Today's pod hosted by Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy
Jacob's preview of Nvidia earnings
John's second article in four-part series covering Rule #2 for Trading and Investing in the Trump 2.0 era.
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It's a new week and we have the latest example of what an FT columnist has called the TACO trade engaging once again: Trump Always Chickens Out. In this case, it was Trump's announcement late yesterday to delay the threat to slap 50% tariffs on the EU already to July 9 rather than June 1 (which he threatened on Friday). The US is out on holiday today, but we have plenty to discuss on geopolitics, further Trump tariff threats and executive orders on nuclear, moves in FX and more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
John's article (first in four part series) on trading and investing in the Trump 2.0 era.
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Today, we ask whether too many have gotten too bearish on US treasuries, the one asset nearly everyone agrees no on should own. If so, US treasuries could be in for quite a painful squeeze ahead of a long US holiday weekend that would inevitably have interesting repercussions across markets, not least for the US dollar and gold. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
John's latest FX Update.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/44JSSzS -
Today we look at the big spike in US treasuries yesterday on a weak treasury auction, which cratered confidence suddenly for the first time in weeks and sparked fresh USD selling. Elsewhere, a rundown of the action in metals, where platinum is making a strong bid for relevance, as well as weather risks for grain prices. Also, a long look at the massive uncertainties for market outcomes from here as the macro backdrop is without precedent. On today's pod are Ole Hansen, Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy and John J. Hardy, Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy.
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Today, a look at the USD breaking down and bitcoin trying to break up to new all time highs as the US treasury market looks like a cat waiting to pounce as it awaits the passage of President Trump's "Big Beautiful" tax cut and spending bill that is set to cement huge US deficits for years to come. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Head of Global Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
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Today, we check in on the technical status of the US equity market, noting meanwhile that leading versus coincident indicators on the economy have yawned to one of their greatest divergences in the past 50 years, something that usually coincides with trouble. Thoughts on make or break time for Tesla, geopolitics, FX, US treasuries and more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
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Today, a breakdown of why US markets are stumbling so badly at the start of the week after some renewed menace on the tariff front from the Trump administration at the weekend and as US treasury yields are under pressure from Trump's big tax cut and spending bill clearing a hurdle in the House. Today's pod with Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
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Today, a blitz of news, from geopolitics on latest trade deal developments and more, to specific company news, particularly United Health and Meta, which faces possible major business risks that are perhaps underappreciated. Today's pod also covers the latest macro data, the big bounce in gold, the outlook for USD and JPY, huge tectonic issues for the US treasury market and more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Michael McNair post on X mentioned on the pod.
John's latest FX Update.
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Today's slide deck -
Today we look at the equity market comeback now having almost come full circle as we are a mere few percent from all-time highs after a broad-based surge, but also signs of the most speculative names have been leaders, including the notorious Palantir. Lots to discuss today in the macro outlook, gold after the big correction, oil and even soybeans with Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen. Hosting today's pod is John J. Hardy, Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy.
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Today, a look at where the markets are headed after yesterday's big capitulation in what was meant to be the macro trade of the year - the move out of the US dollar and US markets. Especially pressing now is where the focus may shift now that trade policy headlines are less likely to move markets. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy
John's latest FX Update.
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Equity markets are shooting for the moon and the US dollar is rallying after the US-China trade talks at the weekend resulted in a 90-day ceasefire and temporary huge tariff reductions. We look at the implications across markets and ask whether this is as good as it can possibly get for now on the trade front, as this is a change of speed, not of direction. On today's pod are Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
No slide deck today as we are trying out a new quick turnaround format for some days. Let us know how you feel about it and always happy for feedback: Reach out to as at marketcall@saxobank.com
Today: extremely pivotal technical levels across US equities and in currencies ahead of a weekend that will see US-China trade talks kicking off (and where hopes are probably too high for significant developments). Also: coverage of the UK-US trade deal and what it really represents and much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Sn9Ook -
Today we discuss the US bearish case remaining intact as key resistance has held, signs that Palantir may finally be paying the price for its bubbly valuation, the latest rip in gold prices and drivers there, as well as in crude oil, the outlook for JPY, an FOMC preview and outlook for Fed policy the rest of this year, the latest must reads and so much more. Today with Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3GvSye7 -
Today we cover the latest challenge to the bearish case in the wake of Microsoft's huge recovery as AI spending commitments from that company and Meta helped lift broader market sentiment. We look at the next existential levels for badly wounded stock market bears after yesterday's price ramp, discuss gold, the latest on tariffs and trad talk prospects, the US jobs report today and Fed outlook and much more. On today's pod were Global Head of Investment Strategy Jacob Falkencrone, Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/42V3jy8 -
Today we look at the remarkable degree to which the market has continued to climb the wall of worry, the risk to gold prices over the next several trading days, what the market is looking for next from earnings and Trump administration policy as volatility has dropped across most assets and much more, including some links to great content for further reading in the slide deck. Hosting today's pod is Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/4jHvS8G -
Today we look at the impact of Trump's big softening on tariffs against China as well as his declaration he has no intention of firing Fed Chair Powell, asking whether this is a major reversal across the board or merely a big slow-down in the "direction of travel" toward a US-China economic decoupling. We talk gold, silver, crude oil, equities, currencies and key US earnings as everything has been roiled once again by Trump's latest rhetoric. On today's pod are Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Yz632x -
Today we look at more market volatility on the latest US-China trade friction and look ahead to the next key event risks on the geopolitical front as US-Japan trade talks are set to get under way and with Italian PM Meloni in Washington. We also wonder whether the US equity market is shaping up for the greatest bear market in a generation as market bailouts are likely no longer a major Washington priority, among other reasons. Today's podcast hosted by Saxo's Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/4jdtaZ6 -
After Trump's 90-day delay on reciprocal tariffs, we have a short window of time to find out how the global geopolitical order will shape up from here as US trading partners scramble to make deals with the US on trade. Will they be willing to sign on to the US' anti-China policy as we now have what amounts to a US-China economic war until or unless until or unless we suddenly see a move to the negotiating table. On today's pod are Jacob Falkencrone on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy on macro and hosting.
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Today's slide deck. -
Today we look at a historic, very bad day for US markets in the wake of Trump's Liberation Day tariffs as the market positions for disruption and widening recession risks. On that note, Europe is certainly at risk, especially relative to recent enthusiasm. Elsewhere, we talk through the FX market and how risk off may see some shifts in recent patterns, look at precious metals after the plunge in silver, discuss what OPEC+ just did that added to the downdraft in crude oil prices, and much more. On today's pod were Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting.
Read John's FX Update from this morning, April 4.
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Trump's Liberation Day tariffs proved far larger than expected and have markets in a defensive posture for good reason. Today we break down why this moment has come as well as what to watch for as the ongoing impact of this historic policy move unfolds. Today hosted by John J. Hardy, Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy.
White House official announcement on the tariffs: https://bit.ly/4ld2E3e
Michael Every's latest after the new tariffs: https://bit.ly/4iSClO7
Yanis Varoufakis on this once-in-a-generation moment: https://bit.ly/3E1VP3U
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/4lbxQ2T -
Today we look at the state of the market a day ahead of Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcements as the market braces for impact. We also discuss the outlook for gold now that it has tacked on another massive rally and run down the performance across the commodity complex in Q1, where gold was surprisingly not the top performer. The latest developments in FX, equity technical levels of note and our top must reads also in today's podcast, which features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/4iEdDRG -
Trump is supposedly set to go easier than originally planned with the reciprocal tariffs to be announced next Wednesday, April 2. There are few details on this story, which provided the strong boost to risk sentiment today. Does this mean that Trump has "blinked" on the tariff issue? We assess where we are and what to watch for across asset classes, as well as highlighting incoming economic data and much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo's John J. Hardy.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3DLe6SW -
The US market found some more solid buying support than it has in a while, but not yet enough to turn the technical tide. We look at what forces could drive the market in either direction, but suspect that US under-performance relative to a hard charging Europe may be here to stay for a while. A thorough look at FX, gold and silver, important links, the macro calendar and more on today's pod, which features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy on FX and Macro.
John's latest FX Update.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3DwZZR8 -
Today we run down some small divergences that could spell near term relief on risk sentiment, even if there is a steep hill to climb to significantly reverse this market rise. We also discuss gold trading at $3,000 per ounce and whether silver is set for brisk and large rally higher if it can break above the 35+ dollar per ounce level. Thoughts on crude oil, copper, a great set of links for further reading and much more also on today's pod, which features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
John's latest FX Update
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/43zRWgK -
Today we look at the massive further slide in US equities, which has taken the Nasdaq 100 to the next significant support point. We also note the reasons that the US has been in for an exceptional pounding relative to the rest of the world, have a look at key commodities like gold, oil and grains, rundown the latest in and FX, the latest link-a-palooza and a VERY important event risk on Friday of this week. Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen, with Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy hosting.
Link to Ole's COT Report analysis
Link to John's latest FX Update
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/4bvm276 -
Today we look at the US stock market correction crossing its first key technical Rubicon as bear market risks ratchet higher. We also discuss the spiking Euro, Japan's likely desire to get USDJPY a lot lower, key commodities markets like oil, natural gas and copper and much more. Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Link to John's latest FX Update:
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/4hVKEbD -
Today we unpack the historic paradigm shift as the EU and Germany have unveiled titanic fiscal initiatives that are altering the landscape for European bonds and the euro. Also, we look at whether there is a Trump put, and ponder whether Trump's moves on crypto and to supercharge money laundering risks are a feature as much as a bug.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/4bsNZML -
Markets are on technical and even an emotional edge as Trump tariffs have gone forward and as speculation swirls that Trump will announce something particularly dramatic at a speech later today. From currencies and gold to US tech and European defense, we have a look at what may come next, including the risk of a big risk-off "whoosh" here. Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodities Strategy Ole Hansen and Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
John's latest FX Update
Ole's latest weekly COT Report update
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3DnFXrX -
Yesterday's combination of Trump tariff threats and weak US data spooked the market further, as did the technical implications of a breakdown through first key support levels in the Nasdaq 100 index a day after Nvidia earnings. Today we run down the really critical support levels that must hold to avoid a bigger meltdown or even bear market kick-off. We also look at why some assets are moving as they are, and what to look at next with a very busy geopolitical and economic calendar next week. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/43cR9Ck -
Today we break down Nvidia's earnings report. Long story short: its earnings don't look like they will be the trigger for the broader market direction from here, so now the market can do what it wanted to do with this distraction out of the way. Plenty more to talk about today, from the latest on Trump tariffs and US continuing to alter the geopolitical landscape to what is driving a huge ramp in one very old German stock. Today's pod features Global Head of Investment Content Jacob Falkencrone and Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy
Jacob's piece on Nvidia's latest earnings report
Jacob's piece on Tesla
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/4ibC6x2 -
Today we look at the ugly rollover in risk assets as markets fret the geopolitical backdrop and perhaps rein in risk exposure ahead of the most important earnings event of the quarter: Nvidia's, which reports after the market close on Wednesday. We also talk the blistering pace of geopolitical developments and policy moves from the Trump administration as well as asking what Europe does next. On today's call are Saxo Global Head of Investment Strategy Jacob Falkencrone and Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/431GGtt -
Today we look at the pivotal German election this weekend and a number of scenarios in what will inevitably prove a weak showing for the centrist parties. We also discuss the implications of Walmart's weak outlook and look ahead at the most pivotal earnings event of the quarterly cycle: the post-Wednesday close Nvidia report. The latest on FX and more also on today's pod, which features Saxo Global Head of Investment Strategy Jacob Falkencrone, with Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy hosting.
Jacob's piece on Ali Baba's earnings.
John's latest FX Update on JPY, German election and more.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3EVhtGQ -
European equity markets are on fire this year, and European defense stocks have lifted aggressively in recent days on fears that the entire transatlantic alliance is collapsing and will require a massive fiscal boost across Europe if it is to defend itself in a new geopolitical backdrop. We pick through one interesting angle on EU defense spending, break down the latest action in FX and commodities and much more as the world seems to spin faster and faster every day. Today features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy hosting.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/4jWq1NY -
Today we sift through the market reaction to Trump's announcement of reciprocal tariffs, with the market celebrating their delayed implementation until at least after the April 1 report on US trade policy. We also discuss the mostly wound-down US earnings season, which has proven the best in three years, the big reversal in bond yields, developments in FX and some great links/must reads (see slide deck link) for those trying to grasp the Trump administration's risky strategy. Today features Jacob Falkencrone, Global Head of Investment Strategy with host John J. Hardy, Global Head of Macro Strategy.
Jacob's piece on BYD: https://bit.ly/4hE819m
John's latest FX Update: https://bit.ly/3X3Axcf
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/417UZv0 -
While we have made the USD bear case to materialize at some point, we don't have much in the way of confirmation that it will arrive sooner rather than later, even if USDJPY may have posted a significant top. Today, a look at what is needed to get that confirmation while also running through the news of the day and what to watch for next across asset classes. Hosting today's podcast is John J. Hardy, Global Head of Macro Strategy.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3ECSW9o -
Today, we round up Amazon.com's results and the refrain we are hearing from them that rhymes with Meta, Microsoft and Alphabet's complaints on capacity constraints and the need for massive further capital expenditures to build out data centers. And that being the case, how to position the DeepSeek news? Also on this podcast, Macro Strategist John J. Hardy lays out the US dollar bearish case as the US government will find that its chief priority is getting its fiscal house in order. Also on today's call is Jacob Falkencrone, Global Head of Investment Strategy.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/4gs9L4q -
Today we discuss the weakness in US tech sector after the close yesterday on Google's operational results and huge cap-ex spending plans and on AMD's weak forecast. As well, a look at the frictions already developing after 10% tariffs against China went ahead yesterday, together with the risks from AI disappointments to China exposure in most of the Mag 7 stocks. Elsewhere, the US dollar is falling and the JPY is surging after US 10-year rates have crossed below a key chart point. Precious metals are also on the rise. On today's call are Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy and John J. Hardy, Global Head of Macro Strategy.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3CyH5bX -
Trump delivered on the comprehensive tariffs he promised at the weekend against Canada, Mexico and China, although they don't actually go into effect until 12:01 a.m (0501 GMT) tonight. That's when we find out how much the market is hoping that we somehow see Trump climb down from imposing these tariffs at the last moment. Today we discuss the quite modest market reaction to this momentous news and what to look for next across asset classes, from foreign exchange to equities, commodities and US treasuries. On today's pod are John J. Hardy, Global Head of Macro Strategy and Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/40SLUGi
Today we look at the tepid market reaction to Trump's threat of imminent tariffs on Canada and Mexico as we wonder whether the market refuses to react until the tariffs are actually in force, thinking some last minute deal will avoid them.
Also, lots to sift through in the blitz of earnings announcements incoming this week and next, as well as some thoughts on the ECB, EURUSD and macro data in store for us in the coming week. On today's pod were Global Head of Investment Strategy Jacob Falkencrone, with Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy hosting.
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Today we sort through the quite mixed counter-reaction to the DeepSeek news that hit the market so hard at the start of the week, noting the raft of companies that have now surged after the initial reaction as lower cost AI models are seen as powering lower cost AI solutions. We also look at the commodities complex, where softs and grains are stealing the spotlight. The latest on earnings, FOMC preview and more also on the show, now with the return of the slide deck (link below)! Today's episode features Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy and John J. Hardy, Chief Macro Strategist.
Link to today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/40RG7Rh
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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The news of China's DeepSeek AI model suddenly gained critical mass at the weekend and triggered an avalanche of selling across the incumbent AI space as the implications of this possibly profound disruptor became clearer. Across the board deleveraging, with special intensity in AI-related tech names is the order of the day as bonds found a safety bid and the JPY did likewise.
On today's podcast were John J. Hardy, Chief Macro Strategist and Ole S. Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
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Today we look at the latest flurry of Trump headlines and whether we are any the wiser on where tariff policies are headed, even as the market takes some encouragement. We sort through some of the next questions to ask about Trump policy as well, especially whether he'll get what he wants from the oil and gas market: lower prices. Elsewhere, the market is issuing a collective yawn after the BoJ hike overnight. And we flag the big event risks of next week and an interesting US option market indicator that suggests some nervousness despite record levels in the US S&P 500. Today features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and Chief Macro Strategist John J. Hardy.
See John's Q1 Macro Outlook here. See John's Q1 FX Outlook here. See Ole's Q1 Commodity Outlook here. See Charu's Equity Outlook here.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
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The day after Trump's inaugural address, we sort through the interesting things that Trump said as well as what went unsaid and break down some of the ensuing market action, most of which was quite modest after the WSJ broke a key story indicating Trump would not be announcing any tariffs until federal agencies were tasked with investigating key countries. Today's episode features John J. Hardy, Chief Macro Strategist and Ole Hansen, Head of Commodities Strategy.
See John's Q1 Macro Outlook here. See John's Q1 FX Outlook here. See Ole's Q1 Commodity Outlook here. See Charu's Equity Outlook here.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
In today's podcast, we look at what has taken shape this week across markets this week, especially the drop in US treasury yields. Above all, however we discuss what we and the markets are bracing for as Trump 2.0 kicks off with Monday's inauguration event in Washington DC, a day that US markets are also closed for MLK day. Today's podcast features Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy and John J. Hardy, Chief Macro Strategist.
See John's Q1 Macro Outlook here. See John's Q1 FX Outlook here. See Ole's Q1 Commodity Outlook here. See Charu's Equity Outlook here.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
With just six days to go to president-elect Trump's second Inauguration Day, we look at the lay of the land and how markets are anticipating the big incoming policy shifts, especially the shape of incoming tariffs. We also look at factors driving the strong start in global commodity markets to start the year, the impact of sanctions on Russian oil and gas assets and upcoming event risks this week.
Today's episode features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen, with Chief Macro Strategist John J. Hardy hosting.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strats Market Strategy Team here.
Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions.
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As 2024 draws to a close, the topic of the final podcast of the year is the biggest headlines of this year and what is to come in 2025. Experts are Chief Macro Strategist John J. Hardy and Head of Commodity Strategy Ole S. Hansen.
We will be back in January and wish you all a joyful festive season and a happy New Year.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strats Market Strategy Team here.
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Today Chief Macro Strategist John J. Hardy and Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen discuss the week's events thus far, including rumbles from China on the potential for new stimulus, Australia's RBA meeting, US treasury yields, but especially the crazy ride in coffee, which finally posted a new record high for the first time since 1977.
We end today's pod with an interview of the runner-up in our Outrageous Prediction competition, who contributed a great OP about amazing things to come from Argentina next year.
Read all of the Outrageous Predictions here.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strats Market Strategy Team here.
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'Tis the season for Saxo's always popular Outrageous Predictions. That's what this episode is all about, as Chief Macro Strategist gives some insights into this year's wild forecast. With Søren Otto in the studio.
Read all of the Outrageous Predictions here.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strats Market Strategy Team here.
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After a week's hiatus, the Saxo Market Call is back and this time, Søren Otto is joined by Head of Commodity Strategy, Ole S. Hansen. The two discuss why gold may be more interesting than oil and why weather is starting to make its impact on a wide variety of commodities.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strats Market Strategy Team here.
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In this week’s Saxo Market Call, Søren Otto is joined by Chief Macro Strategist, John J. Hardy and Head of Fixed Income, Althea Spinozzi to take the temperature of the markets one week removed from the US election. They dive deep into how bond markets, Bitcoin craze and the newly called German election.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strats Market Strategy Team here.
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No big surprises here - this is all about the US election and the market reactions associated with it.
John J. Hardy, Chief Macro Strategist and Ole S. Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy are the experts. Søren Otto is the host.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strats Market Strategy Team here.
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In this week’s Saxo Market Call, Søren Otto is joined by Chief Investment Strategist, Peter Garnry, and Head of Commodity Strategy, Ole S. Hansen. Together, they dive into the latest market news from the earnings season and explore the transformative force of electrification. Tune in as they unpack what electrification means for today’s economy, its role in the shift to renewable energy, and its impact on both equity and commodity markets.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strats Market Strategy Team here.
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In this week's episode of the Saxo Market Call, Søren Otto is joined by Chief Macro Strategist, John J. Hardy and Head of Commodity Strategy, Ole S. Hansen. They discuss the status and expectations of the earnings season as well as the US election with just two weeks to go.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strats Market Strategy Team here.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
In this week's episode of the Saxo Market Call, Søren Otto is joined by Chief Macro Strategist, John J. Hardy. They discuss the US election's effect on markets, earnings seasons and why job data may be distorted rest of year.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
In this week's episode of the Saxo Market Call, host Søren Otto and Head of Commodity Strategy Ole S. Hansen dive deep into the impact of the Fed's recent rate cut on market performance. They explore how commodities like oil, gold, silver, and copper are reacting to these economic shifts. Additionally, they discuss the drivers behind rising food prices and the potential impact on consumers and global markets. Tune in for key insights on market trends, CPI data, and what to expect in the weeks ahead.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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In today's special episode, we talk about the recently published Q4 Outlook. Each SaxoStrat explains his or her take and adds a bit of flavour to it. This means that this episode features Peter Garnry, Ole Hansen, Althea Spinozzi and Charu Chanana. Søren Otto is the host.
Agenda:
- Macro
- Equities (06.45)
- Bonds (14.45)
- Forex (24.16)
- Commodities (32.16)
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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In this episode of the Saxo Market Call, host Søren Otto is joined by Chief Macro Strategist John J. Hardy and Chief Investment Strategist Peter Garnry to break down the latest FOMC rate cut. We dive into market performance, dissect the immediate market reactions, and explore how this rate cut could shape the future of the rate cycle, especially with the U.S. election on the horizon. Tune in for expert insights on earnings reports, bond markets, and key financial figures to watch in the coming weeks.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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In this episode, we dive into the upcoming FOMC meeting and what it could mean for financial markets. We also get exclusive insights from Philip Jagd, Head of Equities at Sampension, who shares key takeaways from his recent excursion to meet with US tech companies, including the magnificent seven members Nvidia and Meta. We’ll unpack the challenges tech and AI companies face in living up to their high valuations, and explore future opportunities amidst the turbulence. Hosted by Søren Otto, with our Chief Investment Strategist, Peter Garnry, joining for his market analysis.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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The much anticipated debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, one of the biggest single events leading up to the US presidential election, took place last night. In this episode, we talk takeaways and discuss how relevant and impactful it is for financial markets relative to upcoming key figures and rate cut decisions. Today's expert is John J. Hardy. Søren Otto is the host.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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The earnings season is - in large part - over and we're waiting on the Fed to most likely announce rate cuts, while the US election is looming in the distance. At the same time oil seems to be more and more in focus. So today, the Saxo Market Call is all about figuring out what is the real driver of markets currently. In that, we will discuss current market performance and news. We will also deep dive into where oil is heading. Today's experts are Peter Garnry, Chief Investment Strategist and Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategies. Søren Otto is the host.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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While the US election is increasingly stealing headlines, this week is all about the Nvidia earnings report Wednesday. Markets are holding their breath to see if the AI mastodon can keep delivering against astronomical expectations. In this episode, we take the pulse of the AI industry, while we also discuss what's the next big thing in the US presidential election after the Democratic national convention has concluded. Peter Garnry and John Hardy are the experts in the studio with Søren Otto.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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In this week's episode of the SaxoMarketCall, we're diving deep into the world of commodities. Earlier this summer, the buzz was all about the potential for a commodity supercycle. But, with recent upheavals in the financial markets, that outlook is now up in the air. That's why we've brought in the experts—Peter Garnry and Ole Hansen—to break down what happened, where we're headed next, and how it affects equities as well.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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We hope you like our new weekly setup and we are very happy to take any feedback.
We're back! And what a crazy summer it's been. One of the most dramatic market crashes in years, a change of the Democratic candidate and an assassination attempt on the Republican candidate are just some of the things that have been happening.
In a new setup, the SaxoMarketCall now features several familiar experts, while Søren Otto is still steering the ship. In this episode, Peter Garnry and staple of the market call, John Hardy try to give investors an overview of what has happened during summer and how it may affect investment portfolios.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
We hope you like our new weekly setup and we are very happy to take any feedback.
In this special summer episode, Peter Garnry is in the studio to discuss geopolitics in the second half of 2024 and what will be the mean focus areas. In the first half, the Ukranian and Palestinian conflicts have been in focus, while political elections and central bank policy have also played a role. With the US election looming in the distance, will we see more of the same after summer?
The episode was recorded on July 8 and is meant to be an interesting insight into the what could be some of the risks and opportunities arising from geopolitical events.
We wish all of you a very happy summer and will be back to more regular programming in mid-August.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
In this special summer episode, Peter Garnry is in the studio to discuss whether AI and technology will continue to be one of the most dominant sectors in the second half of 2024 as it's been in the first half.
The episode was recorded on July 5 and is meant to be an interesting insight into the state of AI and technology for investors to learn about the risks and opportunities.
We wish all of you a very happy summer and will be back to more regular programming in mid-August.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
In this special summer episode, Ole Hansen is in the studio to discuss what a commodity supercycle is, whether we've been in one in the first half of 2024 and whether we will be in one in the second half.
The episode was recorded on June 26 and is meant to be an interesting insight into the term commodity supercycle for investors to learn what it means and what they need to be aware of.
We wish all of you a very happy summer and will be back to more regular programming in mid-August.
Here you find a link to where you can learn more about what moves sub-categories of commodities (as discussed in the show).
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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In today's episode, Peter Garnry is back in the studio with Søren Otto talking equities. This episode is mainly focused on the earnings season, which will kick off soon. Peter shares his expectations and what to pay attention to. We will also look at year-to-date performance, talk about the French election's impact on equity markets and Carlsberg's acquisition of Britvic.
Agenda:
02.07: YTD performance
05.33: French election's equity impact
09.34: Carlsberg's acquisition of Britvic
15.22: Earnings season preview
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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In today's episode, Charu Chanana is back in the studio talking macro and forex with Søren Otto. They will discuss the surprising outcome of the French election and what it means to the EUR. Charu will also touch up Friday's US nonfarm payroll, the UK election and a quick preview of the upcoming Royal Bank of New Zealand meeting.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
In today's special episode, we talk about the recently published Q3 Outlook. Each SaxoStrat explains his or her take and adds a bit of flavour to it. This means that this episode features Peter Garnry, Ole Hansen, Althea Spinozzi and Charu Chanana. Søren Otto is the host.
Agenda:
- Macro
- Equities (04.34)
- Bonds (11.11)
- Forex (17.30)
- Commodities (24.08)
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
In today's episode, Peter Garnry is back in the studio with Søren Otto talking equities. In an otherwise quiet week, focused on politics, Tesla stages a surprising increase in price while Nike makes back some of what it lost based on a disappointing earnings release last week.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
In today's episode, Charu Chanana is back in the studio talking macro and forex with Søren Otto. And not just macro, but also politics as this is the prime focus area for markets. Not only did we have the first debate between the two US presidential candidates last week, we also had the first part of the French election and in the coming week, the UK will hand in their votes. Listen to Charu's takes on it all in this episode.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
In today's episode, Peter Garnry is back in the studio with Søren Otto talking equities. Among other things, they discuss what's happening to Nvidia and Airbus, how overall performance has been and the sneaky interesting earnings this week.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
In today's episode, Charu Chanana is back in the studio talking macro and forex with Søren Otto. They discuss the current equity rally and Charu gives her thoughts on what may derail it and ponder over how investors may position to protect their portfolio.
They also discuss JPY, an interesting host of central bank meetings last week and why political risk may be greater in the coming week than economic risk.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
In today's episode, Peter Garnry is back in the studio with Søren Otto talking equity and macro. In this episode they talk about the past week's macro events such as US CPI figures and FOMC meeting, the French election and the European Parliament vote and look ahead to events such as the German ZDW and US PMI.
On equities they discuss Apple's deal with OpenAI, the strong earnings from Adobe, Broadcom and Oracle and look ahead to a slow week in terms of earnings.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
In today's episode, Peter Garnry is back in the studio with Søren Otto. In this episode they talk about whether the European Parliament election is likely to cause a stir in equity markets. They also discuss the US nonfarm payrolls, inflation figures and central bank meeting as well as look at the regional performance.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
In today's episode, Charu Chanana is back in the studio talking macro and forex with Søren Otto. Last week the closely-watch nonfarm payrolls come out incredibly strong, making it interesting to follow this week's FOMC meeting and CPI print. The two discusses this, as well as European Parliament election, upcoming Bank of Japan meeting and the Indian and Mexican elections.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
In today's episode, Peter Garnry is back in the studio with Søren Otto. In this episode they talk about how the regions and sectors are doing and ponder over, what a rate cut by the ECB may mean for equity markets. They also touch on Lululemon's earnings release on Wednesday.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
In today's episode, Charu Chanana is back in the studio talking macro and forex with Søren Otto. ECB will cut rates on Thursday, and is the big story this week. But it may not be the only rate cut this week, as the Bank of Canada may do the same. We will also get a fair bit of US data and the Swiss Franc is in focus. This - and more - is what Charu and Søren will talk about.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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In today's episode, Peter Garnry is back in the studio with Søren Otto. In this episode they discuss Nvidia's earnings and look ahead to the final acts of the earnings season. They also talk about electrification as may be getting increased attention from investors in the future.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
In today's episode, Charu Chanana is back in the studio talking macro and forex with Søren Otto. They discuss what's more important this week - the upcoming PCE figure or the Fed speakers. They also talk about the Eurozone and the expected rate cut next week, trade wars and why carry trading may be an interesting forex strategy during the Northern hemisphere's summer months.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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In today's thematic episode, Ole Hansen joins Søren Otto in the studio. A lot is going on in commodities and especially in the year of metals. While we zero in on those commodities, Ole goes through the most important movements generally within the asset class.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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In today's episode, Peter Garnry is back in the studio with Søren Otto. In this episode they mainly focus on Nvidia's upcoming earnings. They also discuss Li Auto, Palo Alto, Microsoft, AstraZeneca and JP Morgan.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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Rates cuts seem to be getting closer. And then again, not really. While many were expected earlier in the year, now we only expect a few. But the real story may be whether the ECB will cut before the Fed?
As the foregone week was all about US inflation and ECB members discussing exactly that, and the coming week is packed with speakers from both Fed and ECB, that is what this episode will be about.
In today's macro episode, Peter Garnry is filling in for Charu Chanana. Søren Otto is the host.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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In today's episode, Peter Garnry is back in the studio with Søren Otto. They discuss equity markets and touch upon what the immediate reaction was to the recently released CPI figure.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
In today's episode, Charu Chanana is talking about macro. Søren Otto is the host. They discuss the US market as well as the important US CPI print later this week. They also touch upon China's outperformance and the most interest forex.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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In this special episode of the Saxo Market Call podcast, Peter Garnry, Head of SaxoStrats and Equity Strategy and John J. Hardy, former podcast host, dive into what business sectors may be affected by whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden will be the next US president.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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This podcast episode was recorded on April 18, 2024.
In today's episode, Peter Garnry is back in the studio with Søren Otto. In this episode they discuss how the global economy is running driving along to different lanes - some of it is driving fast, some of it slow.
They also discuss past and upcoming earnings, especially focusing on Berkshire Hathaway's report.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
In today's episode, Søren Otto is joined by Althea Spinozzi, head of fixed income strategy. The two dive into the US so-called quarterly refunding announcement, which is a lesser known financial event, but nonetheless one, which may impact your investment portfolio.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
In today's equity episode, Peter Garnry is back in the studio with Søren Otto. As major companies will report their Q1 earnings this week, this will be the focus of this episode.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
In today's episode, Charu Chanana is talking about macro. Søren Otto is the host. They discuss last week's events such as the BoJ meeting, and US PCE. They also look ahead to ta busy week where especially the FOMC meeting and the Japanese yen are in focus.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
In today's episode, Søren Otto is joined by Charu Chanana to talk about the rumoured currency interventions in China and Japan.
They discuss the what, why and how of interventions and dive into the two markets, looking at the specifics for either country. They also ponder over the implications for traders engaged in forex markets.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
In today's equity episode, Peter Garnry is back in the studio with Søren Otto. They talk earnings, as many of the US tech stocks will report this week.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
In today's episode, macro is in focus as Peter Garnry is standing in for Charu Chanana. Søren Otto is the host. Peter and Søren discuss last week's EU and UK inflation, Fed speakers, Japanese inflation and geopolitics. They also look towards a busy week with earnings, macro figures and a potential FX intervention in Asia.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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In today's thematic episode, Søren Otto is joined by no less than two experts, as Althea Spinozzi and Ole S. Hansen both join in the studio. The three discuss how the growing geopolitical uncertainty affect fixed income and commodities.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
In today's equity episode, Peter Garnry is back in the studio with Søren Otto. They talk about the latest geopolitical developments and discuss whether that or the earnings season will drive equity markets in the near future.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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This is a special episode that we've decided to put out to provide you with our immediate takes on the market reactions following the Iran attack on Israel over the weekend. The episode features Ole S. Hansen, with Søren Otto as the host.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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In today's episode, macro is in focus as Peter Garnry is standing in for Charu Chanana. Søren Otto is the host. Peter and Søren discuss last week's US CPI and ECB meeting and zero in on the Chinese import and export numbers. They also talk about the upcoming EU and UK inflation figures.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
In today's thematic episode, we talk about the Quarter Outlook, which was released last week. Each SaxoStrat explains his or her take and adds a bit of flavour to it. This means that this episode features Peter Garnry, Ole Hansen, Althea Spinozzi and Charu Chanana. Søren Otto is the host.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
In today's equity episode, Peter Garnry is back in the studio with Søren Otto. They talk about the earnings season, which is beginning this week. Per usual, it is the financial companies in the US that kick things off. Garnry gives his take on, what the expectations are and what to pay attention to.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
In today's episode, Macro and FX is in focus with Charu Chanana as our expert with Søren Otto as the host. They discuss the nonfarm payroll from Friday, the upcoming CPI number in the US. They also talk about the ECB meeting and the momentum in Japanese market.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
In today's equity episode, Peter Garnry is back in the studio with Søren Otto. They discuss Tesla's recent earnings and look at the regional equity performance. They also discuss our recently published Quarterly Outlook. Finally, they talk about the biggest macro events in the near past.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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In today's episode, Saxo's Head of Fixed Income Strategy, Althea Spinozzi, discusses how last week's many central bank meetings have impacted the fixed income markets with a special focus on the US, UK, Switzerland and Japan.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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In today's episode, Macro and FX is in focus with Charu Chanana as our expert with Søren Otto as the host. The two touch upon last week's central banks meetings and look ahead to Friday's PCE figure. Finally they discuss overall FX views and also the development in Chinese currency.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
Click here to open an account with Saxo.
In today's thematic episode, Charu Chanana is in the studio with Søren Otto. They dive into the recent rate hike from the Bank of Japan. They put it into a historical context and discuss why it's significant. They also talk about, how it'll impact markets and what the path is from here.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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In today's equity episode, Peter Garnry is back in the studio with Søren Otto. They discuss the Japanese Nikkei index in the light of the Bank of Japan rate hike. They also talk about Nvidia and it's new Blackwell platform. Finally, they dive into the earnings of PDD, parent company of online marketplace Temu.
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In today's episode, Macro and FX is in focus with Charu Chanana as our expert with Søren Otto as host. The focus in this week is central bank meetings with the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting on Wednesday being the most important. BOJ will demand attention too, while it's also worth keeping an eye on the UK, Swiss and Australian central banks.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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In today's thematic episode, Ole Hansen joins Søren Otto in the studio. They take the temperature on the commodity markets with a specific focus on metals. They also talk about cocoa's wild surge, and what to be aware of with grains and natural gas.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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In today's equity-focused episode, Peter Garnry is back in the studio with Søren Otto. They discuss the last week's equity performance around the globe before diving into the Nvidia, which is a company that has had a tough week, which can point to greater issues in equity markets. They also talk about the yesterday's CPI inflation number and Oracle earnings.
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In today's episode, Macro and FX is in focus. That means Charu Chanana is our in-house expert. She discusses Jerome Powell's speech and the non-farm payrolls from last week. She also looks ahead to a week where the inflation figure CPI is the most important macro number. Finally, she talks about the Japanese yen and British pound.
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Saxo's Head of Fixed Income Strategies, Althea Spinozzi, discusses this week's ECB meeting, Gilts in the light of the UK budget release and evaluates the coming week's Fed meeting and how it may impact Treasuries. With guest host Melody Morgan.
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Saxo's Head of Commercial ESG, Ida Johannesen, discusses how investors can use ESG criteria to make long term investment decisions, and shares her outlook for 2024. With guest host Melody Morgan.
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In today's episode, Charu Chanana, Saxo's Head of FX Strategy and macro expert, discusses the latest macro and forex news, and what investors should be aware of in the coming week. With guest host Melody Morgan.
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In today's episode we're talking with Ole S. Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy, about the weekly so-called Commitment of Trader report and discuss why it may be relevant for all investors interested in commodities.
We do so by focusing on cocoa, which has seen a very steep price increase. We dig into the why, how and future perspectives for the commodity.
We also discuss grain and natural gas and the difference in dynamics in all three commodities.
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In today’s episode it’s all about equities. That also means that Peter Garnry is the host. He takes on a journey from Asia to the US and through Europe to give a status on the valuation of equities in some of the major markets in the world.
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In today’s episode Charu Chanana, macro expert and Head of FX strategy. After a week with a very high focus on the Nvidia earnings report, markets may move to focus more on macro figures with one of this week's most important ones being the American PCE. Depending on how it comes out, this may inform Fed's approach to rate policy.
She also gives an update on last week's positive performance in China and presents what forex to watch.
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In this special episode of the Saxo Market Call podcast, Peter Garnry, Head of SaxoStrats and Equity Strategy and John J. Hardy, former podcast host and US politics expert, dive into the turbulent seas of the 2024 U.S. Presidential election and its potential impact on the financial markets.
Their discussion revolves around key points are relevant for investors and traders alike to get a better understanding of the effects of what promises to be a highly contentious electoral battle on global economic dynamics.
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This podcast episode was recorded on February 14, 2024.
Nvidia's earnings report is the most important event for market sentiment in this week. Expectations are sky high, but past performance has also been remarkable. But the further you go up, the further you risk falling.
In today's equity focused episode, Peter Garnry is the expert and he discusses the expectations of Nvidia's earnings and take the temperature of the boom in AI stocks and their expected growth over the past few years.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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In today’s episode Charu Chanana, macro expert and Head of FX strategy. She discusses how the debate about the US economy has gone from expecting recession to now looking at a so-called “no-landing” scenario.
She also touches on the US dollar, US equities as well as Chinese and Japanese performance.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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In today’s episode, Althea Spinozzi, Head of fixed income strategy, is the expert. She presents a status of the US and EU bond markets so far in 2024. She then presents what the current development may mean for fixed income in the coming quarter before discussing what that may mean in terms of diversification and positioning.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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In this episode, Head of equity strategy, Peter Garnry looks back at an action-packed earnings week and concludes the general vibe of it. Looking ahead to the coming week, there will be less earnings, but a host of important macro figures especially from the US, which are bound to come back in to investors' focus as they judge if we are heading for recession, when rate cuts are happening and whether we will have a soft landing.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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This week's thematic podcast episode is all about metals. Ole S. Hansen, Head of commodity strategy, is the expert. He talks about the idea that 2024 could be the year of metals - especially gold, silver and copper are in focus. He discusses their performance so far, why it may be their year and how curious people can be invested in the sub-asset class.
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With Charu Chanana in the studio, we leave the earnings season aside for a while and focus on the macro side of things.
We take a look at the US economy in the light of the very strong non-farm payroll report that came out Friday. We also discuss the Red Sea crisis and its implications for oil, freight rates and markets at large. Finally, we assess the financial situation in China and Australia.
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This week has been teeming with earnings and many of the US mastodons as well as Europe's largest company has reported. Therefore, Peter Garnry is once again in the studio to give us an overview of what has happened and what it means for investors and traders across the globe. It's earnings, earnings, earnings.
This episode comes out a little bit later than usual, so we're able to catch the freshest earnings from the US region. We hope you still like it and look forward to listen in.
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This week is the biggest during this earnings season, as many of the US tech mastodons will report. Therefore, Peter Garnry is in the studio. Before touching on this exciting week, he and Søren Otto also discuss last week's earnings as well as the key figures that come out of the US.
The two also talk about the Chinese real estate company Evergrande and the important central bank meetings that also takes places in the coming week.
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Normalise
In this week's thematic episode, we're talking earnings season with Peter Garnry, Head of equity strategy. We talk about earnings seasons in general and what Garnry pays attention to when reading an earnings report. He also gives his view on some of the biggest reports this week and looks ahead to the coming week, where earnings will roll in. Finally, we talk about how investors can get going by integrating earnings seasons into their investment strategy.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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In today's episode of the Saxo Market Call, Charu Chanana, Market Strategist and Head of FX strategy is the expert. Together with Søren Otto, she provides an overview of the financial status in important financial regions.
First, she talks about the US and how a variety of factors may impact the timing and pacing of rate cutes by the FED (1.02).
She also gives a brief overview of the European situation and how the ECB meeting this week may affect that (6.45), before a short status on the earnings season (9.49).
Moving East, Chanana gives a brief take on China's challenges (11.30), before zeroing in on Japan and the BOJ's approach to interest rates (14.30). Finally, she considers how that may affect forex and Japanese equities (22.02).
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In the first episode of our thematic podcast, we zero in yield curve normalisation. The expert in the studio is Head of fixed income strategy, Althea Spinozzi. She talks about how the yield curve is bound to normalise and how that may look depending on whether we see a soft or hard landing - or what she refers to as a 70's landing. She also takes the temperature on both sovereign and corporate bonds to consider the risk and return pictures for the fixed income asset class.
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In today's episode of the Saxo Market Call, Søren Otto and Ole S. Hansen discuss the conflicting CPI and PPI numbers that came out last week and their potential impact on the markets' expectations to rate cuts through the year (01.57).
They then talk about the new SEC-approved Bitcoin ETFs (04.48) followed by a brief update on the Taiwan election (9.36).
Friday, the banks kicked of the earnings season, which is only going to pick up pace over the next weeks (10.51).
As Ole is our commodities expert, we take the temperature on different commodities, starting with gas (12.50), followed by our (15.55), grain (17.36).
We end with a discussion about price conviction and what commodities look to have a tough year and which may increase in value in 2024.
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This is the first fixed-income episode of the year and we are talking about the negative start to the year with rising bond yields and one US rate cut almost being priced out already. We also talk about whether the US 10-year yield here at 4% is attractive and what the risks are and especially in the context of tomorrow's US inflation report. We also talk about our recently published quarterly outlook where we highlighted three scenarios in the economy and how these scenarios will impact the yield curve, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi.
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In today's episode we talk about Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls and how to read the report while looking ahead to this week's US macro figures across NFIB small business optimism index, initial jobless claims and the important inflation report on Thursday. We also talk about the USD rebound this year and whether momentum can continue and touches on levels in USDJPY and EURUSD. Finally, we touch on the weak sentiment in China and the big batch of Chinese macro data coming out before ending the week with a lot of tensions around the Taiwan election, with Charu Chanana and Peter Garnry.
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In today's episode we discuss the developments in the Middle East and how it is impacting crude oil, gold given the expected lower policy rate this year and inflation expectations generally trending down, and finally a perspective on the grains sector that had a terrible 2023, with Ole S Hansen and Peter Garnry.
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In the first episode of the year we discuss what to expect in equities. We touch on different topics ranging from BYD overtaking Tesla as the largest EV maker in the world, earnings growth expectations and whether they are realistic, the AI hype and whether it can continue, what we like the most in developed market equities, thoughts on China and India, and whether we can expect a recession or not, with Søren Otto Simonsen and Peter Garnry.
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This is the last macro episode before the holiday season. We talk about the upcoming macro figures this week and why they might matter less given the Fed pivot on policy rates. The USD weakening last week and we discuss whether the trend will continue into in the year. Finally, we focus on BoJ rate decision tomorrow with expectations looking for no change but markets are certain that BoJ will hint of maybe leaving negative interest rates behind at the January meeting, with Charu Chanana and Peter Garnry.
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In this episode we discuss what we have chosen to be the best outrageous prediction for 2024 sent to us by our clients at Saxo. The outrageous prediction is simply that government abandons the GDP measure as the yardstick for progress and how to steer the economy. Given that rising GDP has been the key policy objective by developed countries since the Great Depression this would truly be an outrageous prediction. We discuss this outrageous idea and the problems with GDP in a greater macroeconomic context, with Peter Garnry and Steen Jakobsen.
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This is likely the last podcast on fixed income this year so we take a look at the current situation with rate decisions this week from the Fed, ECB and BoE. We also go through the key events and performances across bonds in 2023 with high yield bonds and the Austrian 100-year bond being some of the biggest surprises. Finally, we talk about what to expect in bonds next year as the market has fixed its expectations on lower inflation and lower policy rates, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi.
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This week is crucial for markets given the big moves last week across gold and JPY with Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday supporting the soft landing narrative. Tomorrow, the US inflation report will set the stage for the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday and the key focus is still on services inflation. On Thursday, ECB and BoE will deliver rate decisions and Friday will end the week with key PMI figures across the Eurozone, UK and the US. Central banks will not keep rates so the market will focus on the details in the communication and it feels that markets are sensitive to changes in the narrative around monetary policy and inflation so this week could become more volatile than expected, with Charu Chanana and Peter Garnry.
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Today we discuss equity market performance across country indices and thematic baskets highlighting Nasdaq 100 as the big winner together with semiconductors and cyber security. We also talk about the equal weighted performance between US and European equities which has not been that bad after all for Europe. We also discuss the current policy rate cuts priced in markets and how for now they are viewed as a positive thing but that it could quickly change. Finally, we flag upcoming earnings releases the next week from Lululemon, Oracle, and Adobe, with Peter Garnry.
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Link to our publication -> Outrageous Predictions 2024: The end of the road
It is the time of year when Saxo releases its Outrageous Predictions. For 2024 our Outrageous Predictions are titled The end of the road building on the idea, that the world is set for a very different journey than the calm environment post the pandemic with little geopolitical risks, stable technology backdrop, low inflation, and low interest rates. Three our outrageous predictions are 1) With oil at $150, Saudis buy the Champion League franchise, 2) generative AI deepfake triggers a national security crisis, and 3) Robert F. Kennedy Jr wins the 2024 US presidential election. In the podcast, we discuss all of our outrageous predictions, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi.
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Last week's backdrop was shaped by Fed Waller's comments about rate hikes had ended and the market got into overdrive mode on those comments and soft inflation figures repricing bond yields lower across the curve. This week will be interesting with key macro figures across JOTLS job opening ISM Services tomorrow and Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday. The USD also finally turned around last week and gold spot was also reacting forcefully to the lower bond yields. Finally, with RBA rate decision coming up in Asia session tonight, with Charu Chanana and Peter Garnry.
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Oil markets await the upcoming OPEC decision with the expectation to another production cut to bolster favourable conditions for oil markets. We also discuss the diverging performance across many commodities in November including coffee up 8% and US natural gas down 25% as the peak rate narrative sets in, with Ole S Hansen and Peter Garnry.
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Today we reflect on the meteoric rise in the index weights of mega caps as a function of the generative AI hype this year pushing S&P 500 index concentration to the highest recorded since 1991. The cyber security is a super interesting industry for many reasons that we go through in addition to our reflections on CrowdStrike earnings. Finally, we discuss the wisdom of the now late Charlie Munger and the influence he had on Warren Buffett and some of his key opinions on investing and why he did not like the accounting metric EBITDA , with Peter Garnry.
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Today we talk about government bond markets and whether market expectations are getting a bit ahead of themselves. Especially, the rally in UK Gilts market could be unsustainable given the underlying inflation and likely more fiscal stimulus next year. We also discuss yesterday's conflicting messages around ECB policy and the upcoming Eurozone CPIP report on Thursday. Finally, we discuss the US Treasury market that has rallied the most since August 2011 with the 10-year yield declining 60 bps, but the bigger question is whether the rally is sustainable, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi.
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After last week's quiet backdrop due to the US Thanksgiving holiday this week will drum up more energy with important inflation reports from the US, Eurozone, and Australia which will be important for the direction of the USD that have found itself increasingly in negative momentum. China has had so many false starts this year and this week we will get another PMI report that will show whether the recent stimulus actions by the Chinese government is moving economic activity. Finally, we talk about the USDJPY which seems to have reached a top and this narrative could be bolstered on a weaker than expected USD inflation report, with Charu Chanana and Peter Garnry.
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Today we talk about the possibility of another Santa rally in gold and silver. The previous six years have had a strong December in those two precious metals - is the setup right again this year? The oil market is nervous with a tricky supply and demand situation with traders awaiting OPEC's next move. For all the weakness in China, Copper is still holding up pretty well and the recent moves from the Chinese government to support real estate developers and the economy could turn things around for copper. In addition, Chinese inventory of copper is at a rock-bottom low, with Ole S Hansen and Peter Garnry.
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We discuss four topics today. Nvidia's earnings were incredible strong blasting estimates but US export controls are upsetting and lowering the visibility of its Chinese business. The US economy is still expanding but slowing down while earnings estimates are coming down in Europe and S&P 500 (ex. technology sector) which are at odds with a rallying equity market. Across equity themes the green transformation baskets are still under pressure while nuclear power and commodities are doing well. Finally, we talk about batteries with both Chinese based CATL and Swedish based Northvolt expecting to list next year, with Peter Garnry.
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Today's episode is about a concept called fiscal dominance which is when the fiscal policies begin to dominate the monetary policy. Under conditions of high debt levels and rising interest rates it can create a negative feedback loop in inflation and interest rates potentially leading to sustained negative real rates and fiscal repression. We also talk about yesterday's 20-year Treasury auction and how the market response might indicate that the market is pricing in a slightly more hawkish Fed, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi.
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The USD continues to weaken with the market betting on a Fed pivot as inflation cooled more than expected last week and more indicators are suggesting the US economy is slowing down. We also cover FOMC Minutes, initial jobless claims, and Black Friday. In Europe, this week is going to be a key test of the turnaround narrative with fresh PMI figures and IFO survey, while we also keeping an eye on UK budget and Riksbank. Finally, in Asia FX traders should have a focus on RBA Minutes and the stabilisation/strengthening of the Chinese Yuan, with Charu Chanana and Peter Garnry.
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In today’s commodities focused podcast we explain what has driven the sudden comeback for semi industrial metals, such as silver and platinum. The current negative momentum in crude oil carrying the risk of an overshoot to the downside ahead of the November 26 OPEC meeting. Finally a look at realized gross roll yields in commodities, which sectors are contributing the most and how returns compare with recent history. With Ole S Hansen and Peter Garnry.
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Today we discuss yesterday's small positive surprise on US October inflation that sent bond and equities soaring with Nasdaq 100 on a trajectory to set a new closing high for the year. We also go through which equity themes responded the most positive to lower interest rates, and also the recent reading on the US consumer based on earnings results from Target and Home Depot. Finally, we go over recent earnings and the most important earnings to watch over the next week including the important Nvidia earnings next Tuesday, with Peter Garnry.
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Today we discuss options and how investors and traders can use them. We go through an example on getting long exposure to Novo Nordisk, alternative entry strategies selling in-the-money puts, creating recurring income from selling covered call options on stocks in the portfolio, zero-days-to-expiry (0DTE) options, and finally how maybe not to use options around earnings releases, with Koen Hoorelbeke and Peter Garnry.
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While today's US inflation report will move markets and be important the longer term importance will come from inflation expectations which are all on the rise. In today's podcast we also talk about our views on bond yields given the market's pricing of the Fed Funds Rate a couple of years out and why we still like the barbell strategy. Finally, we discuss Moody's change of the US rating outlook from stable to negative over the weekend and why it matters for credit bonds from Microsoft and Johnson & Johnson , with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi.
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In today's episode we discuss the recent plunge in crude oil which is definitely not part of the OPEC+ plan, the correction in gold following a strong period for equities, and finally we talk about the roaring prices in soft commodities due to extreme weather patterns, with Peter Garnry and Ole S Hansen.
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Today we discuss 1) battery electric vehicles deliveries in Q3 and how it relates to Brent crude being down 18% from its recent peak, 2) is a recession finally coming after great delay? and 3) the Adyen Investor Day tonight European time as an important event for the payments industry, with Peter Garnry.
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In today's episode we talk about corporate bonds in USD and EUR taking a look at the historically high bond yields and investment grade vs high-yield spread. We also take a look at performance across the different corporate bond segments and zoom in on some individual names such as Leonardo and 3M, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi.
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In today's podcast we discuss the weaker USD on the back of the big risk-on move across markets last week, and whether the lower long-end US bond yields in fact cancel out a bit of Powell's remarks last week. We also discuss Bank of Japan and JPY, China data this week and the lack of growth revive, and finally tomorrow RBA rate decision, with Charu Chanana and Peter Garnry.
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In this week's extended commodity focused podcast we welcome Nitesh Shah, head of commodities research at WisdomTree, Europe's largest commodity ETP provider. First we discuss the pros and cons of investing in commodity ETPs vs companies, and what to be aware of. We move on to having a broad discussion about the outlook for key commodities. Nitesh gives his view on China and why he is cautiously optimistic about the demand outlook. Also the green arms race and its impact on transition metals and how investors gain exposure to these green metals, with Nitesh Shah and Ole S Hansen.
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Today we discuss three things. Earnings expected tomorrow from Apple, Novo Nordisk, and Fortinet. The green transformation meltdown that just continues every month with Orsted as the key example today down 16%. Finally, we discuss the earnings season and the surprises from US technology and European companies, with Oskar Bernhardtsen and Peter Garnry.
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Today we talk about the three major central bank rate decisions this week (BoJ, Fed, and BoE) and how the bond market is pricing policy rate trajectory long-term in the US and Europe. we also explain the barbell strategy as one way to approach the bond market these days, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi.
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It is a big week for central banks with rate decisions from Bank of Japan, the Fed, and Bank of England. In all cases, the central banks are expected make no changes to their policy rate, but Bank of Japan might tweak their yield-curve-control allowing the Japanese government bond yields to rise above 1%; the ceiling on Japanese bond yields was raised back in July by 0.5%-points. We also talk about the UK economy where inflation is still running hot, Eurozone inflation figures, and lastly the Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday, with Charu Chanana and Peter Garnry.
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Today we talk about rising gold prices despite rising yields in a move that smells of investors seeking hedging for a financial system in which something could soon break due to rising bond yields. We also talk about the oil market and how it is perceiving supply disruptions amid the escalating war between Hamas and Israel. Finally, we touch on the strong gains in soft commodities such as orange juice, cocoa touching a 44-year high, and sugar touching a 12-year high, with Peter Garnry and Ole S Hansen.
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Today we discuss the Q3 earnings season and in particularly earnings yesterday from Microsoft and Alphabet (Google) with Microsoft being the big winner according to investors as the cloud business grew faster than estimated at 24% y/y while Google's cloud business disappointed. On a positive note, advertising revenue growth from both Google and Snap suggest that companies remain positive on their outlook for the economy. In China, Xi Jinping visited the PBoC for the first during his leadership and new economic aid measures are being launched, but the market is still not buying the turnaround case on China. Finally, we talk about the recent economic figures confirming a robust US economy and early signs that Europe's economy might be turning around, with Peter Garnry.
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The ECB is expected to maintain its policy rate on Thursday but the room for maneuver is tight for the ECB with the European economy in contraction and inflation remaining stubbornly high. Add to this rising US bond yields, potential tweak to BoJ yield-curve-control and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. While the ECB is in pause mode it it not a pleasant one. We also discuss this week's Treasury auctions for clues about positioning of bond investors on the yield curve and with recent weak Treasury auctions this week's auction could prove important. Finally, we discuss the different options investors have on the US yield curve depending on portfolio objectives, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi.
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The US economy has been the big positive this year defying every forecast but can this exceptional run in the US economy continue? We discuss that and also what this week's US GDP and PCE reports could mean for the USD. In today's podcast we also discuss carry trades in CHF and MXN, and the upcoming ECB rate decision on Thursday which is expected to be a non-event. UK jobs report is out tomorrow ahead of next week's BoE meeting. Finally, we talk about the Australian economy and the upcoming inflation report and how it could move the AUD, with Charu Chanana and Peter Garnry.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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Falling bond yields the past week and the market positioning itself for 'peak rates' have seen gold bid. We discuss the different aspect of why gold could extend its momentum and what to look out for. The terrible developments in the Middle East have also pushed the oil market into a more volatile situation but still limited upside from here due to spare production capacity. In natural gas we of course discuss the latest developments including the leak on the Baltic natural gas pipeline, and finally we discuss crops from soybean and wheat that are seeing weak prices due to stronger production from major suppliers, with Peter Garnry and Ole S Hansen.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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A lot of action has come back in equities with the latest move lower in the US 10-year yield following geopolitical events in the Middle East pushing equities higher again. We also debate the 'higher for longer' narrative and whether the backdrop for equities is actually okay given the US economic strength. We also talk about Novo Nordisk that again has released another very positive trial data now related to kidney failure sending its shares higher while the world's largest dialysis provider Fresenius Medical Care has seen its share tumble as much as 24%. Finally, we go through the upcoming earnings on Friday from US banks such as JPMorgan Chase and next week's earnings from Tesla, ASML, Netflix, and American Express. Especially Tesla earnings will be important for sentiment in equities and the latest price cuts may be a warning of weakening demand for electric vehicles, with Peter Garnry and Oskar Bernhardtsen.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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The US bond market reaction to events in Israel over the weekend was delayed because of yesterday's closed US markets, but today bond trading has resumed and the initial reaction was lower bond yields. However, the longer end US bond yields have already come back higher again so the uptrend in bond yields remain intact. In today's episode we reiterate our call for staying in the short end of the yield curve or short-term high quality investment grade corporate bonds. Finally, we talk about the widening BTP-Bund spread and what it means for Italy and ECB rate policy, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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We are coming into this new week after a horrible weekend with geopolitical risks rising after Hamas' attack on Israel. The initial market reaction has been equities lower (-0.6%), Brent crude higher (+3.3%), gold and USD spot are also bid. But the medium term outcome both across markets and geopolitics will come down to how Israel responses as the spotlight is pointing at Iran as a supporting actor in Hamas' planning. In any case, the weekend's attacks could be a defining moment for the Middle East region. Across equity themes we expect logistics, defence, and cyber security stocks to be bid. Today's podcast is not only about geopolitics and we do discuss the US Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday and the weak consumption figures coming out of China during the Golden week holiday, with Charu Chanana and Peter Garnry.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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We are back with another episode on equities and with US bond yields galloping higher equities are under pressure. We talk about ways investors can reduce risk and what sectors or themes make sense under the pressure from higher interest rates. Then we talk about the Birkenstock IPO scheduled for pricing on Tuesday and first day of trading on Wednesday. The valuation of Birkenstock has actually gone up since the roadshow started as investors are recognising the strong brand and the upside potential from direct-to-consumer. Finally, we talk about the first batch of Q3 earnings releases next week with a focus on PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, and JPMorgan Chase, with Peter Garnry and Oskar Bernhardtsen.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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Today features Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen as we quickly discuss the dynamics driving the spike higher in long US treasury yields (and yields around the world). This sharp rise in real yields at the long end of the curve to remarkable new highs is creating a significant danger moment for markets. Investors should move to protect their portfolios.
Here is a chart deck supporting some key points from the podcast and more.
The Saxo Q4 Quarterly Outlook.
We back with another episode of the Saxo Market Call following a few missed episodes. In today's episode we cover what is going on in fixed-income markets which are essentially driving everything in markets these days. We argue staying in short duration bonds across inflation-linkers, corporate quality and safe-haven due to uncertainty over timing of 'peak rates' and the outlook for a potential stagflation, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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In today's episode covering fixed-income we aim to answer the crucial question of how much higher bond yields can go given the latest move higher in the US 10-year yield putting pressure on equities. If energy prices remain bullish and economic data continues to look solid then the US 10-year yield could reach the 5-5.25%. In the case of weakening economic data and lower inflation the narrative in bonds could quickly turn on its head. We also talk about timing and bond carry to understand the dynamics of investing in bonds. Finally, we provide some example of credit bonds for those investors seeking high bond yields with short maturity and high credit quality, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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Last week ended with both equities and bonds lower following the Fed's hawkish message with rates staying higher for longer to deal with inflation and the strong economy which lifted the longer end of the US yield curve. This week key event risks to monitor are the UAW wage negotiations, gasoline prices and more jitter around a potential US government shutdown. US consumer confidence figures tomorrow are also key to track and on Friday the market will get the latest PCE inflation data. Across the Atlantic in Europe, the market will get Eurozone lending survey on Wednesday and the latest inflation figures from Wednesday to Friday. Finally, we talk about China and how Saxo's clients in the APAC region have positioned themselves for a rebound in the Chinese economy through a net positive positioning in Hong Kong equities, with Charu Chanana and Peter Garnry.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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In today's podcast on commodities we discuss the FOMC rate decision and what the Fed's soft landing outlook means for commodities. We discuss everything from the opportunities in gold as a hedge against monetary policy mistakes, tightness in energy markets, downside pressure in copper due to rising copper inventories, and recent developments in the agriculture sector, with Peter Garnry and Ole S Hansen.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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With the market waiting for central bank rate decisions this week we take a step back and zoom in other parts of the equity market. We discuss the several red flags in the Instacart IPO and the extremely elevated forward valuation of Arm which is three times that of the Nasdaq 100. Realized volatility has lately been very low in the US equity market and investors might begin considering adding some hedges to their portfolio which can be done in different ways, and finally we discuss the three most important earnings releases next week from Micron Technology, H&M, and Nike, with Peter Garnry.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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The US 10-year yield is breaking on a combination of improved economic activity in the US since May and recently a rally in oil lifting energy prices and inflation expectations. We talk about the upside and downside case on bonds, and finally we talk about interest rates in Europe and why higher bond yields in Europe are sending a different signal than in the US, with Peter Garnry and Oskar Bernhardtsen.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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A big week ahead for financial markets with central bank decisions from the Fed, BoE, and BoJ with the market expecting no change from the Fed and BoJ, while BoE is expected to follow the ECB decision from last week hiking 25 bps. The economic landscape is getting increasingly difficult for central banks with the recent run-up in energy prices across both oil markets and uranium lifting inflation expectations and bond yields. In this podcast, we talk about the evolving economic landscape in the context of this week's major central bank decision. The key for investors will be the details in the forward-looking language and forecasts rather than the actual decision, with Charu Chanana and Peter Garnry.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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Brent crude is marching on as Saudi Arabia keeps the oil market tight raising the risks of stagflation in both Europe and the US. Will the current oil price curtail demand and will China begin tapping into its reserves? Copper has recently been supported by China's efforts to strengthen the yuan. We also talk about how copper is still structurally attractive giving the ongoing electrification, EV adoption and China stimulus. Finally, we go through the key movers in the Bloomberg Commodity Index, with Peter Garnry and Oskar Bernhardtsen.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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Oil prices are moving higher on Saudi Arabia's oil production cuts. This is naturally adding tailwinds to energy stocks which are quickly catching up with the rest of the global equity market. We discuss energy stocks and their attractive valuations. The market for electric vehicles is being flooded with cheap Chinese EVs to a degree where the EU is now launching an investigation into Chinese subsidies for EVs lifting European carmakers and surpressing Chinese EV-makers. Finally, we talk about next week's earnings from FedEx will provide information on how the global economy and whether the outlook for global goods transportation is improving or not, with Peter Garnry and Oskar Bernhardtsen.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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In today's podcast on fixed-income we preview the ECB rate decision on Thursday on the back of a recent stagflation outlook from the EU Commission making the policy decision a difficult one. We argue for a hawkish pause with the potential move by the ECB to stop reinvestments into the PEPP facility. Based on a slowing economy and stagflation light outlook we go through why both European and US sovereign bonds have an attractive risk-reward ratio, with Peter Garnry and Althea Spinozzi.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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In today's podcast on macro and FX we discuss the ongoing strength of USD which is a function of relative weakness in Europe and China, and to what extent the US inflation report on Wednesday will impact the USD trade. China has been in focus a lot lately as its real estate sector is in a deep crisis, but last week a ban of Apple's iPhones brought geopolitics back into focus. We also discuss what China's next potential policy move is to offset the recent weakness and how we should think about the weekend's G20 meeting with China's Xi Jinping not showing up. Finally, we discuss Europe's economy, inflation outlook and the tough decision for ECB on Thursday given the slowing growth and stubborn inflation, with Peter Garnry and Charu Chanana.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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In today's podcast on commodities with discuss the recent rise in oil prices driven by an artificial tightness and what it means for the oil industry but also the economy. Our nuclear power equity theme basket was the performance winner August and today we discuss the underlying drivers for uranium and the nuclear power industry, and finally we touch on gold and silver on which we are patiently bullish given our stagflation call, with Peter Garnry and Ole S. Hansen.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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In today's podcast on equities we talk about the growing electric vehicles ecosystem of recycling and charging, Adobe's earnings Thursday next week which will be important for sentiment on AI-related stocks, and finally we talk about next week's IPO of Arm and whether this is potentially "AI washing", with Peter Garnry and Oskar Bernhardtsen.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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In today's fixed income focused podcast we take a closer look at recent developments, especially the emerging focus on peak rates and its potential impact on yields and short-term rates. Also what are corporate bonds telling us, and finally we explain how the COT report for fixed income futures works and what drives the current record speculative short positions w/ Peter Garnry and Ole S Hansen standing in for Althea Spinozzi
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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First episode in our new podcast format with Charu Chanana talking about macroeconomic topics and currencies. We talk about Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls figures underpinning the soft landing narrative ahead of potential stagflation concerns later this year. We also talk about the USD rally and whether it could end with strength going into the direction of CNH and JPY. Finally, we discuss the central meeting this week from RBA (tomorrow) and Bank of Canada (Wednesday) which have very different tasks at their hands.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3L6i4WN -
Markets are calm ahead of today's US August Nonfarm Payrolls report which is expected to show continuous job gains in the US economy. In today's podcast we discuss the positive week in global equities led by technology stocks, potential turnaround in the US fiscal impulse, galloping prices on rice and orange juice, and a stronger Chinese yuan as recent policy moves have strengthened the currency. Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3L3q2zG -
Momentum in equities is extending as 'peak rates' narrative gets stronger amid weakening macro data suggesting that tighter monetary policies are beginning to have an impact on the economy. We expect the ECB to go into a hawkish pause mode on policy rates and this thinking has got the market to bid up EURUSD in recent trading days. Momentum in gold is also responding well in recent weeks to the 'peak narrative' and elsewhere in commodities cocoa futures are approaching their highest price since early 2011. We also touch on earnings from Salesforce and UBS. Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.
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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3L3UV7k -
Bad news was good news yesterday as significantly weaker than estimated US August consumer confidence and July JOLTS jobs opening pushed the US 10-year yield lower lifting equities, and especially the cyclical sectors such as semiconductors and carmakers. In currencies, the AUD is seeing the strongest bid and in commodity markets crude oil is still supported by tight markets. Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3QYEMnq -
Risk-on sentiment continues this morning with a strong Chinese equity session seeing Hang Seng futures rallying 2%. We discuss the new positive sentiment on Chinese equities, but also the ongoing risks to the Chinese economy. We also talk about the recent headwinds for the USD and positioning in industrials metals. Finally, we cover the 3M lawsuit settlement over defective earplugs to the US military and the upcoming earnings today from HP and NIO. This and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Link to slide deck: https://shorturl.at/hjv27 -
Jackson Hole delivers nothing that changes the outlook leading to muted reactions across various markets except for a collapse in implied equity volatility (VIX). Chinese regulators have lowered trading costs today causing a rally in Chinese equities with Hang Seng futures up 1% after being up as much as 3.2% as the market has its eyes on the Chinese shadow banking system. In currencies speculative short positions on the USD are being reduced and in commodities we still observe broad-based selling due to worries over China. We also discuss the rising refinery margins on gasoline and diesel impacting costs of transportation. This and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3P9KAsU -
Today we look at the market turning tail badly yesterday and posting a bearish reversal after a gap opening higher. The action was sympathetic with the massive deflation in NVDA options premium as the gap higher in that company's stock on the company's results was entirely erased during yesterday's session. Elsewhere, we look at the USD resurgent ahead of a speech from Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole, with ECB President Lagarde also set to peak. In fixed income, we note the continued elevation at the short end of the US treasury yield curve suggesting the market has priced in a higher-for-longer policy stance from the Fed. We note as well that today is the first day for major internet companies to face the EU's new Digital Services Act, with possibly huge implications. This and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3ORhX22 -
Today we look at Nvidia's results smashing everything in sight on results and guidance and offer some thoughts on what we missed in waxing so skeptical in yesterday's podcast, while still posing a few questions on whether its trajectory is sustainable. We also note the very weak Eurozone and UK PMI data, which helped engineer a steep slide in global yields and whipsawed currency markets. In commodities, the focus is on the resurgence in silver and the collapse in gas prices and surge in uranium prices. This and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3YNlKCd -
Today we look at the wild swings in Nvidia shares ahead of that important company's earnings report after the close today, with much at stake as the company has a very high bar to clear in terms of results and guidance, given the share price. We take a look at some of the largest likely buyers of Nvidia and why their capital expenditures have not expanded in line with the expected surge in Nvidia revenues. Elsewhere, we continue to discuss what the Fed will hint at in this Friday's Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Powell. In commodities, we focus on copper and oil. This and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/45C8m63 -
Today we look at the strong resurgence in US equities yesterday, particularly in the most popular speculative names like Tesla and Nvidia, which jumped over 8% yesterday, trading close to the cycle highs just ahead of its earnings report after the close tomorrow. The strong resurgence unfolded despite US yields rising sharply, with the 10- and 30-year yields posting new 15-year and 12-year highs, respectively. We look at key upcoming Treasury auctions and what the Fed's Jackson Hole conference on Friday and into the weekend may be set to deliver in terms of policy hints. This and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3P5e62S
Today, we look at the start to a new week as China disappoints once again on soft-pedaling its approach to stimulus, weighing on risk sentiment in Asia. We also wrap up last week's rather dire action in the US and other equity markets as rising yields continue to pressure valuations. The week ahead features the biggest AI name of them all as Nvidia reports on Wednesday after the market close. On the macro data front we'll have a look at preliminary August PMI's incoming on Wednesday, while the bigger focus rolls into view with the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium up on Friday and into the weekend.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Link to slide deck: https://shorturl.at/epMS6 -
Risk-off sentiment continues in markets as worries over the Chinese economy intensify with the latest news being that Chinese property developer Evergrande has filed for bankruptcy protection in the US. The Chinese shadow banking system is likely galloping towards a significant restructuring event. In addition to Chinese weakness big moves in the long end of the US yield curve are also putting pressure on risky assets. We also talk about Nvidia's earnings next and the negative sentiment across commodity markets. In today's On today's podcast are Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Link to slide deck: https://shorturl.at/diEK5 -
The weakness in equities continues with China's economic uncertainty being one driver and the FOMC Minutes yesterday another driver as they showed that the Fed still views inflation risks to be high and that rates will stay higher for longer. We also cover the ugly 20-year JGB auction that together with the FOMC Minutes took interest rates higher globally. In commodities we focus on copper and the general outflows in ETFs tracking commodities. Finally, we discuss terrible first-half results from European payment company Adyen and Orsted price momentum that is looking very ugly together with the rest of the green transformation segment. In today's On today's podcast are Peter Garnry on equities, Ole S. Hansen on commodities and Althea Spinozzi on fixed-income.
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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Link to slide deck: https://shorturl.at/flR34 -
Significant risk-off session yesterday with S&P 500 futures taking out the trading ranges of the prior two trading sessions as Fitch warned of US banking downgrade including JPMorgan Chase and strong US retail sales lifted bets for one more US rate hike. But outside US equity markets focus is increasingly on China with another company missing payments and worries over the shadow banking system in China. In commodities we talk about weak crude oil causing energy stocks to be the worst performers yesterday and gold that did not like the US retail sales report. On today's podcast are Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.
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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Link to slide deck: https://shorturl.at/uJUW4 -
Equities rebounded yesterday with Nvidia shares leading the rebound, but equity futures are already turning around again with more weakness coming out of China forcing the PBoC to cut several key monetary policy rates. Today we highlight inflation linkers in the US and also talk about the biggest outflow in ultra long-term US Treasuries in over a year. On commodities we talk about bids in copper despite Chinese weakness, gold weakness as real yields are increasing, and finally how grains futures have reacted to yesterday's US crops condition report. We also touch on Home Depot earnings expected to be released before the US market opens. On today's podcast are Peter Garnry on equities, Ole S. Hansen on commodities, and Althea Spinozzi on fixed-income.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Link to slide deck: https://shorturl.at/dqNTY -
Equity markets ended last week on a weak footing which has continued this Monday as Country Garden, China's largest real estate developer, missed coupons on some of its high-yielding investment products setting off fresh nervousness among investors. Speculators have cut positions in USD but increased their short positions on bonds highlighting that investors are betting on higher interest rates across the entire curve. In commodities traders are shredding exposure in metals and agriculture while holding on to their long positions in energy on the recent move higher. On equities, we cover Exor's new 15% stake in Philips, Nvidia's weakness on Friday, and the new bid for a takeover of US Steel. On today's podcast are Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.
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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Link to slide deck: https://shorturl.at/ejmuO -
Yesterday's US July CPI report was a non-event for the market. We discuss how the more stickier part of the inflation basket remains elevated and well above the Fed's inflation target of 2%. We also discuss equity returns during stagflation, which is our new big macro call, and what it means for equity sector returns. The high short-term bond yields continue to act as headwinds for gold and wheat is struggling to find bids looking for the WASDE report for direction. Finally, we talk about a major acquisition in the US luxury industry, Alibaba's strong Q2 results, and ending on talking about next week's earnings releases. On today's podcast are Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.
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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Link to slide deck: https://shorturl.at/inqJ8 -
The AI rally with Nvidia at its center is showing cracks with our bubble stocks basket down 13% this month and Nvidia shares breaking down technically yesterday. In today's episode we have also invited our Chief Investment Officer Steen Jakobsen to talk in more details about his big call that the economy will enter a stagflation light environment. We also touch on today's US July CPI report and what it means for bonds, the big move yesterday in natural gas due potential Australian LNG supply risks and finally we talk earnings from Novo Nordisk, Siemens, and Disney. On today's podcast are Peter Garnry on equities, Steen Jakobsen on macro, and Althea Spinozzi on fixed-income.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Link to slide deck: https://shorturl.at/lzC57 -
Today we discuss the possibility of stagflation in the years to come as our Chief Investment Officer Steen Jacobsen laid out the arguments for why such a scenario could play out. In daily grind of financial markets we discuss tomorrow's US July CPI report which is expecting to see another month of core CPI at 0.2% m/m. If US inflation continues to ease it could mark the peak in the Fed Funds Rate and accelerate bets on rate cuts next year. We also discuss the troubles at WeWork, oil markets, Novo Nordisk's 17% rally yesterday on good Wegocy trial data on heart risk, and the clarification from the Italian government on the new extra bank tax. On today's podcast are Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.
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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Link to slide deck: https://shorturl.at/hnrHW -
Risk-off sentiment is coming back into markets today after disappointing July export figures from China confirming the weakness in the global manufacturing sector and risks to the global economy in the later part of the year. Equity futures are headed lower but in a bigger context still not showing signs of an incoming recession, so the direction in the bond market will be crucial to watch in the coming weeks and months, and especially given the recent curve steepening in US Treasuries. Commodities have lately been doing well due to tight supplies across many key commodities including oil, but some weakness has arrived on the back of disappointing demand linked to China's lack of economic momentum. With the market now pricing six Fed rate cuts by January 2025 we expect gold to come back into focus in the coming months. Finally, we talk about the surprise extra tax on Italian banks, Glencore's whopping 50% decline in EBITDA, and Palantir's positive revenue outlook last night. On today's podcast are Peter Garnry on equities, Ole S. Hansen on commodities, and Althea Spinozzi on fixed-income.
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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Slide: https://bit.ly/450p3Ia -
In this Special Edition podcast, Saxo head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen takes us on a deep dive into the energy markets, with a rundown of supply and demand drivers, how balanced the market is these days, what the forward curve for oil tells us about the market, why refined products are as important to follow as crude oil itself, ways to trade the energy markets and much more. John J. Hardy hosts.
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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3OwkuA1 -
Today we discuss the FOMC meeting, which brought the expected data dependency and a complete lack of new guidance, which has allowed the US dollar to continue lower as the VIX pushes back at the cycle lows. Meta reported strong results after the close, helping to take US S&P 500 futures to new highs for the cycle. We look forward to the ECB meeting today and wonder whether Lagarde and company have already pre-empted any ability to surprise with the recent shift to less hawkish rhetoric. The Bank of Japan, meanwhile, can only surprise the market as we are all quite uncertain on their course of action from here. In upcoming earnings, we spotlight Intel and note important inflation data up tomorrow on the macro calendar. Today's pod is hosted by John J. Hardy.
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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/44C0Yrk -
Today features Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen as we discuss the break higher in commodities that will likely eventually challenge the assumption of ongoing disinflation. We also ponder what today's FOMC meeting will bring relative to market expectations, and more importantly what the Fed is trying to accomplish as this cycle plays out into an eventual recession. We also look at the woes Europe faces here and the impossible task for the ECB. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by John J. Hardy.
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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3rDYt9n -
Today we look at incoming data and how it will impact the yield curve, suspecting that weak data and the key Friday US PCE inflation release will see the market marking the forward Fed expectations lower, seeing this week's Fed rate hike as the last for the cycle, even if tomorrow's FOMC meeting will likely see the Fed maintaining optionality for the possibility of another hike. The ECB is certainly set for a more dovish turn, and we eye EURJPY downside risks in coming months. In earnings, we note the incoming semi-annual report from LVMH today and Google and Microsoft after the US close. This and more on today's pod, which features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3DtRVwN -
Today we wrap up last week's action and note that the market could be in for some consolidation after the recent blistering run higher, with key themes in focus, especially AI after NVDA posted an ugly week and Microsoft backed out all of its share gains from the Copilot AI story last week. It reports tomorrow, as does the luxury giant LVMH after luxury stocks posted an ugly week. Elsewhere, Germany's horrific initial July Manufacturing PMI print of 38.8 begs the question on why the ECB is even hiking this week. We can likely expect even more dovish shift from Lagarde and company as growth woes dominate the focus. A EURUSD reversal risk in in play this week if 1.1000 fails. This and more on today's pod, hosted by John J. Hardy.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/44WWADd -
Today we look at the ugly break lower in the US equity market after the Tesla and Netflix earnings spoiled the party, with a snappy move higher in treasury yields possibly adding to the negative tilt in sentiment. We look at the technical implications of yesterday's break in the rally and note that the status of the US dollar bear market is suddenly in play as well after yesterday's punchy rally and the spike in yields. All of this with a critical week ahead as the FOMC, ECB and Bank of Japan lined up for next week. Today's pod features Kim Cramer Larsson on technical analysis, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/44VbCcD -
US equities tested new highs yesterday but closed mixed, with Tesla and especially Netflix earnings after the close chilling risk sentiment, with focus on Netflix's weak guidance and concerns for Tesla centered on the margin story as Musk forecast further price cuts on Tesla's cars, with fewer details than hoped on the Cybertruck. Elsewhere, we have a look at the strong euro versus weak JPY and CNH and wonder whether the ECB's recent dovish turn is prompted from the currency angle. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by John J. Hardy.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/44NGKKU -
US equities ripped to new highs for the cycle as financials got a boost from more banks and financial services companies reporting, led by a huge advance in Charles Schwab on a strong earnings beat and guidance. But Microsoft stole the limelight, adding $150 billion in market cap in announcing the pricing for its new AI tools. Elsewhere, sterling was walloped by a softer than expected CPI report - does this spell the end of sterling's strong performance after a remarkable first half of the year? Today's pod features a run-through of the technical analysis outlook for key stocks, indices and gold with our technical analyst Kim Cramer Larsson. Hosted by John J. Hardy.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3XYOzeo -
US equities closed at new cycle highs yesterday as financials recovered sharply after the prior day's sell-off. The first two major US regional banks are set to report earnings today. Elsewhere, commodities prices suffered a drawdown as China-linked sentiment remains soft. In the earnings overview, we wonder whether Tesla's earnings report could inject some volatility into the very complacent backdrop, as the calm ironically increases market fragility and risk to any news that doesn't fit with the narrative. This and much more in today's pod, which is hosted by John J. Hardy.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3pZ7bhT -
The equity market was unable to hold an extension of the steep rally on Friday, with financials leading the intrasession selling. Strong results from JP Morgan and Wells Fargo saw those shares gapping strongly higher on the open, but generally selling off thereafter. In FX, the USD backed up after a strong US University of Michigan sentiment report for July that boosted yields, but last week on balance saw a firm break lower in the USD's fortunes. In commodities, we focus on crude oil and the divergent and volatile grains markets. We also look at the week ahead in earning and macro risks and more. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/44n5rhj -
The equity market rallied continued apace yesterday, encouraged by a drop in treasury yields all along the curve and benign US PPI data. Earnings season kicks off in earnest today and gathers pace next week - can companies deliver after the aggressive expansion of multiples over the last three months? In FX, we note that in trade-weighted terms, the Euro is at all time high (nominal effective terms according to ECB measure). We also note the rising anticipation that the Bank of Japan may have to tweak policy at its meeting in two weeks. Commodities have also been rocked by developments, where today we focus on crude oil, copper and silver. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://shorturl.at/hyW13 -
Equities got the best of all worlds yesterday with US June inflation figures surprising to the downside painting a perfect picture of lower inflation, higher real disposable income, and no landing in the global economy (maybe even an acceleration?) leading to a US yield curve steepening with long bond yields declining. With animal spirits already running high this new setup took US equities to new highs for the cycle and the highest close in 15 months. We also cover the moves across other asset classes as the USD fell sharply and gold and silver rallied hard. This and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole S Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3PR5uO8 -
Equity sentiment continued to strengthen in Europe and US today, with Japan's equities under pressure from the recent sharp strengthening of the Japanese yen. A big test for USDJPY and the US dollar in general over today's June US CPI data as the dollar index trades near the big range lows of this year. In equities, we break down why the Nasdaq 100 index rebalancing should prove much ado about not-so-much in the near term and note that most of the upside in equities over the last quarter has been on multiple expansion more than anticipation of earnings growth. In fixed income, we note the extreme outperformance of junk debt this year and wonder when elevated US yields will begin to attract more assets into cash and short treasuries from equities. This and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3XJQVho -
Today we look at the market sentiment stabilizing overnight as China moved to extend support to the property market. With yields edging lower still yesterday, the JPY rally picked up further momentum - is that move chiefly positioning drive and will the US CPI data tomorrow offer support for USDJPY or accelerate its decline? We also discuss the Nasdaq 100 index rebalancing that is set for next week and whether this will trigger notable volatility in especially the very largest cap US stocks. Elsewhere, we discuss UK yields dropping after mixed labor market and earnings data, gold making a bid at rallying through resistance and crude oil trading into range highs. This and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/43k7th9 -
Today we discuss the weak close to the week for equities on Friday after the official US jobs data came in far softer than the blowout ADP private payrolls numbers the prior day. Interestingly, while long US treasury yields remained elevated, the JPY strengthened the most of any major currency versus the US dollar - is this on overextended positioning? Elsewhere, we look at TSMC's better than feared preliminary results of the last quarter, look ahead to the start of earnings season later this week, talk metals in the commodities round up and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link: Saxo's Q3 2023 Outlook - AI: The Good, the Bad and the Bubble
Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/439Lyco -
Today we discuss the strong US data yesterday, including a blowout June ADP payrolls growth number and strong June ISM Services survey print. The data blasted yields higher once again at the long end of the US yield curve, a move that markets found unsettling as it represents a tightening of financial conditions. We also discuss the very odd internals of yesterday's US equity market session and whether all corners of the market are "getting" the risk of a narrative reset: that the US economy may be reheating. In FX, we look at why the JPY strengthened, so unusual to see when US treasury yields are surging. In commodities, we discuss the conflicting forces hamstringing the market in a range and the crosswinds hitting gold as well. This and much more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link: Saxo's Q3 2023 Outlook - AI: The Good, the Bad and the Bubble
Link to this episode's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3rcubu5 -
Today we note yesterday's break of key chart resistance in US 10-year yields and ponder the implications while noting it is critical to watch whether the break holds through the next couple of days of incoming US macro data, especially the jobs report tomorrow. We also take an extensive look at UK gilts and whether UK yields there will compete with returns on equities, as well as how much work the BoE has to do (or core inflation has to fall) to get real yields anywhere close to neutral. A look at the JPY move overnight (in conflict with developments in US treasury yields), the upcoming US economic data calendar and more. Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3PDCutb -
Today we look at a market that is waiting for incoming data, with the long end of the US yield curve in focus as we watch whether we get stronger data and a yield surge that may tighten financial conditions, or whether soft data plays as "bad news is bad news" rather than continuing to encourage the seemingly ever easier financial conditions of late. We also note fresh "fragmentation game" angles on signals out of China and the US looking to possibly at the loophole in its restrictions on Chinese access to AI, we discuss the incoming earnings season, important perspectives for bond investors as significantly positive coupons have dramatically shifted the risk/reward in bond investing and much more Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3DhGzMp -
Today we wrap global market developments as the US headed home early yesterday for today's market and national July 4 holiday. We also discuss the remarkable adoption curve of EV's in light of this week's impressive delivery figures from Tesla and others, especially the under-appreciated scale of two- and three-wheel vehicle production, and whether crude oil demand destruction will accelerate more steeply than currently anticipated. In fixed income, the focus remains on the remarkable inversions of global yield curves, with EU- and UK swap spreads indicating more pressure on rates to rise further than in the US. This and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3CWCmNN -
Today we discuss the further rush of buying into month- and quarter-end on Friday that took the US S&P 500 index to a new high for the cycle, with Japan following suit to open this week after a strong Tankan survey. A look at the liquidity conditions that are supporting the move of late as well and whether these are set to continue, with the next test for markets either from the long end of the yield curve (which has teased the upper range of late and will be watching the heavy data calendar this week) or in the strength or lack thereof in the upcoming earnings season. Elsewhere, we look at the most extreme relative moves in corn and soybeans in modern memory, crude oil, AUD ahead of tomorrow's RBA meeting and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3pyvWBh -
Today we question whether the treasury market's sharp reaction to yesterday's strong US weekly initial jobless claims and jump in yields reveals that the market is very poorly prepared for a change of the narrative: one that suggests the economy remains strong rather than heading toward a soft landing. All eyes on the long end of the US yield curve! If financial conditions are set to tighten and next week's data proves strong, the US dollar could be set for a significant further surge higher and volatility could pick up from the quite low levels of late. We also discuss ASML's drop, Nike's results, equity market valuations, grains and gold and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3pq1Fog -
Today, we note volatility still stuck in a rut as the concerns of coming US export restrictions on AI-chips failed to get any traction yesterday. The US yield curve is frozen in place and we ponder what might change the dynamics and blast us out of this period of remarkable calm. In FX, the USD is firming, while sterling was sent lower by BoE rhetoric yesterday. We also look at gold, crude oil, incoming earnings and the macro calendar and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/42WYm5O -
Today, our top story is the news that broke late yesterday suggesting the Biden administration may look at slapping new export restrictions on AI-related chips and how this casts a shadow on Nvidia's recent explosive share price rise. The news took Nvidia and AMD shares sharply back lower after the close yesterday. We delve into whether Nvidia's recent blowout quarter is in part due to panic buying from China ahead of anticipated restrictions and whether its longer term guidance is over-reliant on Chinese demand that may not be realized due to these restrictions. Elsewhere, we look at the latest moves in FX and commodities, where gold is under pressure near key support and crude oil is also languishing near cycle support. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/44jjofR -
Today we look at another weak day for equities, with the selling concentrated in the mega-cap and AI-linked names after a Goldman downgrade of Tesla. Despite the extension of the sell-off, market fear measures remain very low. In FX, China puts up a fight against the yuan weakening trend. In corporate credit, we note an interesting turn for the worse in high yield relative to investment grade debt, noting the high nominal rates that less credit-worthy names will have to refinance at in this environment. We also preview debt-addled Walgreen Boots Alliance, which is reporting earnings today, as well as focusing on what to watch for in today's US data, particularly the June Consumer Confidence report up later today. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/43Z2TFZ -
Today we discuss equity markets where the bull market status is teetering, and the weak internals in many themes and sectors in the US even as the headline advance has not yet reversed much of the recent large rally wave. We take a look at the limited impact from the kerfuffle in Russia at the weekend, note the importance of food prices, especially driven by wheat. We also offer some thoughts on where we stand with the AI theme, outline the incoming earnings reports for the week ahead, interesting stretched positioning in some currencies, and more. Today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/431EFJT -
Today we discuss the strong return of AI-driven animal spirits in yesterday's US equity market session, as AI-linked names dragged the averages higher while most sectors and the average stock posted an unimpressive day. In FX, we note the inability of the Norwegian krone and pound sterling to get a boost from large rate hikes yesterday from Norges Bank and the BoE. Elsewhere, we wonder when strong bond yields might see bonds beginning to crowd out stock allocations, particularly in the UK. We also discuss the recent rally in grains and how to gain exposure to agriculture via agribusiness stocks. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/42XXv4G -
Today we look at another weak day for the US equity market, but note that the VIX continues to shrug off the soft risk sentiment, closing at a new cycle low yesterday. We cover the hefty menu of central banks meeting today, with the Norges Bank hiking 50 basis points (market was divided on what they would do) as we were recording the podcast. We also look at heavily inverted yield curves, whether the Bank of England can deliver sufficiently hawkish guidance today to clear the bar of expectations, stocks to watch, including in agribusiness as grain prices are soaring and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3XhX43Y -
Today we note that, despite the first negative day in some time in the US market yesterday, pockets of pronounced strength were found in many speculative names. Our Global Risk Indicator also shows the scale of improvement in financial conditions of late and suggests that the speculative energy may have room to extend. In FX, we note the interesting market reception of another new cycle high in UK core CPI this morning, as the market wonders whether the Bailey Bank of England has the right stuff to deliver as much tightening as is currently priced into the forward curve. We also talk the wildly strong US housing starts number yesterday, earnings to watch today and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: bit.ly/3PmO5wz -
The energy is quite low across markets outside the fixed-income market with a lot of action this week around BoE and upcoming UK macro figures including CPI. PBoC cut the key 5-year benchmark rate in China by 10 basis points but the market was looking for 15 basis points. Chinese equities were disappointed extending their selloff from yesterday adding fresh worries that China is more constrained that initially believed when it comes to backstop demand and lifting economic activity. We also discuss FedEx earnings which is scheduled for after the US market close. Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and Peter Garnry on equities.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/444wOMS -
Today we look at the market closing last week on a slight dip after the prior furious run higher. One issue that has failed to trigger any market turmoil of late has been the US Treasury rebuilding its reserves, possibly as liquidity "stored" in the Fed's repo facility may provide some offset, at least for now. Elsewhere, we take a look at the rapid repositioning unfolding in the grains market on supply concerns in part driven by El Nino, copper and crude oil, EU versus US real rates, a preview of the Bank of England meeting this week and more. Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/43J0fnE -
Today we break down the answers to our latest Listeners' Survey, with more discussion of your questions coming up next week. Today we look at the surprisingly hawkish ECB, which doubled down on its guidance for more tightening, particularly via sharp upward revisions to inflation and labor costs for coming years. This gave the euro plenty of traction for extending its rally, aided by a soft US jobless claims number and on the Bank of Japan failing to even hint at plans to tweak policy overnight. The yen is in a death spiral. Elsewhere, we look at what has been a very strong month for the commodities complex, discuss Adobe's results and the very busy week ahead on the macro calendar with another bonanza of central banks. This and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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The latest Saxo Market Call Listeners' Survey is out now! Don't miss out on your chance to provide feedback and drive the content of our next two Friday Listeners' Edition podcasts: https://bit.ly/3N5gJj6 -
Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Nc0tg4 -
Today we breakdown the FOMC's hawkish hold and the market's reaction to the upgrade of the outlook on the economy and higher dot plot projection for the Fed Funds rate for this year and the next two years as the Fed delivered a "higher for longer" message. We also preview the ECB and note that the long end of the US yield curve is the most critical, especially for pressure on the JPY, which has ratcheted dramatically higher ahead of a now critical meeting for the Bank of Japan. If yields continue higher, the BoJ must signal a willingness to tweak or risk further disorderly JPY declines. In stocks to watch, we note US homebuilder Lennar's strong results and highlight tonight's Adobe earnings call as the stock has ramped higher on anticipation of a boost from its new AI-driven products. This and more n today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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The latest Saxo Market Call Listeners' Survey is out now! Don't miss out on your chance to provide feedback and drive the content of our next two Friday Listeners' Edition podcasts: https://bit.ly/3N5gJj6 -
Link to today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3NdNI4W -
Today we look at the market continuing its melt-up into today's FOMC meeting after yesterday's benign CPI , which most believe will bring a pause and only slightly better than 50/50 odds for a final July hike, although further out the curve, the market is moderating its bets on Fed cuts and treasury yields rose all along the curve yesterday. Will the Fed pushback or deliver on market expectations? In fixed income, we focus on the 30-year US T-bond yield and the huge rise in UK gilt yields. In commodities, copper is teasing key levels, while gold is pushing on key supports in places as risk sentiment and yields are on the rise. In equities to watch, we note AMD delivering a new chip that will go head-to-head with NVidia chips. This and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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The latest Saxo Market Call Listeners' Survey is out now! Don't miss out on your chance to provide feedback and drive the content of our next two Friday Listeners' Edition podcasts: https://bit.ly/3N5gJj6 -
Link to slide deck for today's podcast: https://bit.ly/3Pc1lnA -
Today, we look at the market rally extending higher and verging on melt-up status. On that note, interesting to see whether the Fed's "third mandate" of financial conditions, or arguably the S&P 500, will play any role in its decision on whether to hike tomorrow, with most believing the Fed is set to pause and possibly hike in July. Of course, today's CPI will weigh as well. We also talk commodities after China's surprise rate cut, including copper, corn and uranium and note the AI-hype in individual equity names bordering on the absurd as seen in yesterday's Oracle earnings report and related headlines. This an more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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The latest Saxo Market Call Listeners' Survey is out now! Don't miss out on your chance to provide feedback and drive the content of our next two Friday Listeners' Edition podcasts: https://bit.ly/3N5gJj6 -
Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/43VKnxQ -
Today, we continue to discuss the building market bubble, with little sense of whether the FOMC and/or the BoJ this week will bring enough to the table to provide notable pushback. Regarding the FOMC, we wonder, given the March forecasts, why the Fed won't hike at both of the upcoming meetings. We also talk heavy treasury issuance this week, the energy outlook and recent rise in commodities, incoming earnings to watch this week and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole S. Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Cleu6k -
Today we look at the market rebound yesterday, though still one with a number of divergences we have recently noted. Tesla had a banner day and was administered a dose of rocket fuel after the close on GM announcing that it would join Tesla's EV super-charging network. Given that today is Friday, this could well drive a bonanza of volatility and heavy trading in Tesla shares on the impact of the weekly options going 0DTE (zero-days-to-expiry) today. In fixed income, we focus on upcoming US treasury issuance and the pricing at the front-end of the European yield curve. FX moves, an emphasis on the heavy calendar of event risks next week (US CPI, Fed, ECB, BoJ & more) and much more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3oPzIGj -
Today, we look an even odder equity market session yesterday in the US than the prior day's session, as it featured another spike higher in value and small cap indices, while the broader market was mixed and megacap names, and particularly AI names, suffered a steep sell-off. This on a day that saw the VIX posting a new post-pandemic cycle low. In commodities, we focus on gold on the defensive after another central bank, this time the Bank of Canada, surprised hawkish. We also check in on natural gas, discuss diverging forward expectations curves for many central banks, note key stocks to watch, including a sudden jolt lower in Amazon, and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today, we look at a remarkable US equity market session yesterday, which saw some underperforming sectors and themes performing extremely well while the broader market was very quiet. The sudden "calm" in markets here is reflected in the VIX dropping to its lowest level since before the pandemic breakout. We also look at the massive US treasury issuance set for the balance of this month and whether this will pinch liquidity and sentiment. We remark on 2-year EU yields and whether these are realistic, given further expected ECB hikes. In FX, focus on Bank of Canada today and whether it will prove the second central bank after the RBA to restart its tightening regime. This and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today, we note that the US equity market rally looks remarkably extended after a more than 30% advance in the Nasdaq 100 year-to-date. We also offers some thoughts on, and look at the interesting market reaction to Apple's announcement of its Vision Pro "mixed reality" headset. In commodities, the focus is on the crude oil market after the weekend OPEC+ meeting and new cuts announced there, while we note the forward risks for grains on weather concerns and deteriorating crop condition for corn in the US. In FX, the RBA announced the second consecutive surprise hike and AUDUSD is trading at critical resistance. This and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole S. Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3qfu4gO -
Today we discuss the market action yesterday possibly suggesting a "buy the fact" moment for risk appetite on the debt ceiling lifting after the US Senate signed on to the deal yesterday. This, after many, ourselves included, have fretted the impact of the coming blitz of Treasury issuance on liquidity. We also quantify what is coming, in terms of the pace of Treasury bill issuance and discuss the confusion around the speculative positioning in treasury markets - is the pain trade for higher or lower yields? Elsewhere, have ECB expectations come off too aggressively, what are we watching for in crude ahead of the OPEC+s meeting this weekend, some stocks to watch, including Tesla, and much more, including several answers to SMC listeners' questions in our most recent survey. Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3N6dzMZ -
Today, we discuss the steep consolidation in AI-related names after the recent huge surge, also noting the S&P 500 in complete limbo technically, possibly on volatility sellers continuing to bottle up the action. We also look at the winding down of debt ceiling concerns, which ironically could lead to liquidity pressures across markets as the US Treasury will need to rebuild its reserves. A look at crude oil ahead of the OPEC+ meeting, copper, grains, incoming earnings and sharp market reactions for Crowdstrike and Salesforce, important incoming macro data and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: Saxo Market Call slide deck -
Risk sentiment headed lower yesterday as the AI hype was faded by traders and the weaker sentiment extended overnight as China published weaker than estimated PMI figures for May adding fresh worries over global growth. In today's podcast we cover equity futures, Salesforce earnings, China's weaker growth, lower bond yields, the US debt ceiling deadline, strength in gold, and weaker across iron ore and copper. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and Althea Spinozzi on fixed-income.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3ILNoZJ -
Today, we note the extreme divergence in equity market themes over the last week that is a hidden development underneath the strong performance of the major US indices on Friday. We look at the moderate impact thus far of the debt ceiling agreement-in-principle reached at the weekend, discuss the strong earnings season and few interesting names set to report this week. Energy and the European natural gas market are in focus in commodities while we also try to gauge where we are in terms of timing an eventual recession with US yield-curve and consumer confidence survey indicators. This and more in today's, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.
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This special episode of the podcast features an in-depth view on how to invest in commodities, one of the more difficult to understand asset classes at first glance for the novice, whether using futures, equities and other exchange traded products. The podcast is hosted by Saxo Head of FX Strategy, John Hardy and features Ole S. Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy and Peter Garnry, Head of Equity Strategy. This episode was recorded on Wednesday, May 24, 2023.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3IIo7PR -
Today we do a brief market wrap as US treasury yields continue to ratchet higher as a possible debt ceiling deal may be looming and as we ponder how that could alter the landscape. But the bulk of today's podcast is dedicated to the results from our latest Listener survey, rounding up the SMC listener's thoughts on where the US equity market, commodities and the US dollar are headed and addressing some of the many topics that our listeners thoughtfully forward. We'll round up some answers to more of these great questions in next Friday's podcast. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Latest Saxo Market Call Survey will be available until 1400 CET on May 25. If you haven't accessed the survey yet, don't miss out on your chance to provide feedback and drive the content of our next two Friday Listeners' Editions podcasts: https://bit.ly/3OEFntn -
Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3IEHtoZ -
Today we look at yesterday's session, which was mostly downbeat as US treasury yields continue to back up, but then with a huge change of tune in late trading on Nvidia results beating handily and guidance smashing expectations on company anticipating a bonanza of AI-related chip sales. We do a deep dive on the company's valuation and outlook and wonder, at 29.2 x sales (before the big jump after hours) whether the company's future growth can live up to the hype. Elsewhere, we look at another slide in copper prices, the performance of uranium prices and ETFs, key FX themes and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Latest Saxo Market Call Survey is now available! If you haven't accessed the survey yet, don't miss out on your chance to provide feedback and drive the content of our next two Friday Listeners' Editions podcasts: https://bit.ly/3OEFntn -
Link to today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3IH63FR -
Today we assess yesterday's market downdraft and some of the reasons it is giving us an uneasy feeling, particularly with unknown volatility risk from rampant speculation in short term options in the mix. The big mark-down in luxury stocks was also a key signal. As well, we break down massive core inflation surprise in the UK and what it might mean for sterling and gilts, the debt ceiling lessons from 2011 for the US treasury market, key stocks reporting earnings, including NVidia today and much more. Note that we are saving the deep dive podcast on commodities for later release. Stay tuned for that. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.
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The latest Saxo Market Call Survey is now available! If you haven't accessed the survey yet, don't miss out on your chance to provide feedback and drive the content of our next two Friday Listeners' Editions podcasts: https://bit.ly/3OEFntn -
Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3WwUirs -
Today we look at building tensions as US equities trade sideways at elevated levels for the cycle while US treasury yields rose once again to new highs since the March banking system turmoil. We wonder whether equity market investors are complacent on the risks of a liquidity pinch once the US debt ceiling issue is (presumably) resolved. We also take a look at Japanese and even Greek equities, two star-performing markets this year, the reaction to Zoom's earnings report, the upcoming RBNZ meeting, crude oil and gold and positioning and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3q5bWGh -
Today we discuss the collapse in the US debt ceiling talks on Friday, with little to guide us on what happens next, but with markets mostly in a complacent mood on the issue. We also look at China's partial ban on Chinese companies using US chip-maker Micron's products, upcoming earnings this week, including Nvidia, which has been bulled up on its links to powering the AI future. In commodities, the focus is on grains and other softs already seeing a possible impact from the shift to an El Nino climate pattern. Gold technicals also deserve a mention as higher us treasury yields pressure higher. This and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today is the second of our Saxo Market Call Listeners' Editions, prefaced with a brief market wrap from yesterday, which produced a strong rally extension in the US equity markets, supposedly on hopes that a debt ceiling deal is near, but also on benign economic data. With treasury yields also on the rise, it felt like the market expressing a belief in an improving economic outlook. On the debt ceiling issue, we caution that a solution could lead to a severe liquidity crunch as the US treasury rebuilds its reserves. The bulk of today's podcast is a look at listener questions from our survey last week. Stay tuned early next week for the next Saxo Market Call listener survey. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we ask whether it is the 0DTE phenomenon (zero-days-to-expiry in S&P 500 in particular) that has dampened volatility so extraordinarily of late and how long this phenomenon can continue to bottle up the market. We also take a look at US Retail helping to shock the USD stronger and push metals lower again, with gold taking out 2,000/ounce. Stocks to watch include Target and Walmart for more on the US consumer. The earnings outlook supporting European equities (including from Siemens), crude oil, the risk of a leg of stronger US dollar and much more on the call. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/42Y5HSX -
Today we highlight the enormous confusion and uncertainty in this market as elevated, but extremely rangebound markets are at odds with market pricing for an incoming recession and "the experts" have the most diverse set of opinions imaginable. Meanwhile, we get the latest extreme data points that don't provide any clarity: a wildly negative US May Empire Manufacturing survey after the strong April number and then a huge drop in UK payrolls in April that the market stumbled over and then largely ignored. Elsewhere we highlight stocks to watch, including Home Depot on its earnings release today and the debt ceiling meeting set for later today that will offer some insight on how sensitive the market is to that issue as we near the crunch time for US default risks. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we note the release of the preliminary University of Michigan sentiment survey, which showed the expectations component tanking badly while longer term inflation expectations suddenly ticked higher to their highest since 2011. Elsewhere, we note huge US credit growth as a possible sign of distress, the important macro data and earnings reports in the week ahead, the lack of a notable animal spirits in either direction in equities and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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In this first edition of the Saxo Market Call podcast Listeners' Edition - we take a look at the many answers to our listener survey. Thanks very much to the Saxo Market Call community for the strong response. To address more of your questions, we have decided to make the survey a biweekly one, so we will follow up on more of your questions next week. We also have a brief market wrap at the end of today's pod, covering Google AI, copper breaking key support and sterling selling off on the Bank of England and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.
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In today's podcast, we note the market's choppy, but in the end positive embrace of the slightly softer US CPI data point yesterday as US treasury yields eased. On that note, we suggest that a crisis is almost needed to justify the market's forward expectations for the Fed, as pricing of significant easing starting later this year intensified yesterday. Could the debt ceiling issue drive that possible crisis scenario? Elsewhere, we preview today's Bank of England meeting and wonder whether the recent sterling surge means this will drive a "sell-the-fact" moment, as seemingly everything that tries to get moving ends up mean reverting (former EUR strength now erased, former JPY weakness now partially erased, etc..) We also talk Disney's woeful streaming results and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Responses to our new weekly Saxo Market Call Survey are pouring in. If you haven't accessed the survey yet, don't miss out on your chance to provide feedback and drive the content this Friday's podcast: https://bit.ly/42jEiLg -
Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3nM683M -
In today's podcast, we note that, while today's US CPI release is the US data highlight of the week, that it is unlikely to drive a significant shift in forward Fed expectations unless there is a rather profound shock in the numbers (more likely on a hot number than a cooler one). Elsewhere, we talk Stanley Druckenmiller's imminent recession and "hard landing" call, the dire situation for US office REITS and dark clouds over Blackstone on the commercial real estate worries made worse by the recent bank turmoil, crude oil & grains, incoming earnings, and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Please take the new weekly Saxo Market Call Survey: your weekly chance to provide feedback and drive the content of the Wednesday and Friday podcasts!
Link to today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3NN4uK1 -
In today's podcast, we note that the market is scratching around for catalysts as we await US CPI data tomorrow and wonder whether it will even prove a catalyst. The most interesting news overnight was the surprising plunge in China's imports in April, further challenging the "re-opening" narrative. We also look at gold, stocks to watch today, the challenges for Sweden's financial system, earnings to watch and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at the big sentiment shift on Friday, in part driven by strong US April payrolls growth (although do note the negative revision of March data), but also driven by improved sentiment in US regional banks. We look at remarkably stretched positioning in US treasury futures for at least part of the curve, highlight the big shift in currencies late last week, note the treacherous shifts in the oil market, break down the week ahead in earnings, note the geopolitical risks in owning Apple shares, Warren Buffett's concerns on the US-China relationship, the week ahead on the macro calendar, especially the Wednesday US April CPI release, and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/42jqelf -
Today we look at yesterday's FOMC policy statement and press conference delivering, by design, as little as possible to markets and then the late slump in risk sentiment and US treasury yields that was driven by another US regional bank, PacWest declaring that it was "reviewing its strategic options". This after Fed Chair Powell declared that US banks are "sound and resilient" in yesterday' presser. We also look at the coincident spike in gold prices on this development, crude plunging again, copper near support, incoming earnings (including from Novo Nordisk), stocks to watch, the ECB coming up today and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/40XRS5t -
Today we look at yesterday's rocky market session on the March US JOLTS survey showing far fewer job openings than expected, but also on further turmoil and concern related to US regional banks. We also ponder what the reaction function to tonight's FOMC meeting will be, when the market has already fully priced a pivot and aggressive rate cut cycle into 2024 (Fed funds priced to drop to 4.40% by end of this year and another 100 basis points or more by mid-next year). Elsewhere, more bearish action in commodity prices and FX, JPY jumps on yield dump, and mixed news in incoming earnings, with bright spots but the overall earnings season and guidance heading south. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at the US equity still poised just under key cycle resistance, although the narrow rally in megacap names had the Nasdaq 100 testing new cycle highs over he last couple of days. We look at FX developments, including a surprise RBA rate hike overnight and an extension of the aggressive JPY sell-off which has taken USDJPY to critical resistance just ahead of the FOMC meeting tomorrow. On that front, we wonder whether the Fed delivering the expected pivot to a glide path on rates could prove a "sell-the-fact" setup, noting at least that is far cheaper to hedge downside risk with much lower implied options volatility. Incoming earnings, including from AMD, the macro calendar ahead and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at the US equity market closing up against cycle resistance as earnings season has impressed and as the market seems in a celebratory mood on the prospects for the Fed pivot to a glide path this week after an anticipated 25 basis point hike, currently priced as the final hike for the cycle. Elsewhere, we look at FX, where the JPY continues to suffer a drubbing, and at position in US FX futures, which show the EURUSD position stretched. Notably EURJPY is hitting its highest levels in almost 15 years. Grains, crude oil, incoming earnings reports and the macro calendar for the week ahead and more all on today's podcast, which features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at the market zipping back higher as the busiest day of the earnings season impressed even if Amazon's guidance spooked after the close. We also look at a very dovish Bank of Japan meeting as it sets itself up for a very leisurely policy review. The ability for the JPY to drop further will quickly depend on whether yields elsewhere turn higher again, however. A discussion of whether Germany increasingly sees China as a rival, industrial metals and food commodities and much more also on the call. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting.
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Today we look at a bit of deja vu all over again as we saw a negative session yesterday in the US followed by a megacap - this time Meta - reporting after hours. We note that regional bank stocks continue to struggle at cycle lows. Some of the weak sentiment yesterday was on the Republicans passing their spending bill in the House that would lift the debt limit, but with no one having a clue on next steps as this bill is dead-on-arrival in the Senate, much less Biden's desk. Elsewhere, crude oil dropped sharply again, while gold is sticky near 2,000. Today brings perhaps the busiest earnings report calendar of the season, while the first BoJ meeting with Governor Ueda at the helm is up tomorrow. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting.
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Today we look at the sharp sell-off in US equities in the cash session yesterday, in part on a weak April US Consumer Confidence reading, but also noting the big sentiment shift back to the positive side after hours on Microsoft and Alphabet reported earnings. It is also difficult to discern how much the US debt ceiling issue is weighing on the US treasury market (and therefore supporting the Japanese yen yesterday). Elsewhere, we look at metals and crude oil and stocks to watch, rounding up major companies reporting and previewing Meta reporting today after the close. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3LqrFbg -
Today we look at the most rangebound US market since late 2021 and wonder what will spark the next momentum move in either direction as we note the confusing evidence that various macro data points are throwing off about the US economy. We also note the increasingly downbeat earnings outlook from analysts and the huge incoming load of earnings reports, including from Microsoft and Alphabet today after the close. In commodities, we look at investor flows and the latest declines in wheat prices, while the weak US dollar is really mostly a strong Euro at the moment. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3LoIaEG -
Today we look at global markets in very different places as slumping commodities are a huge question mark on the quality of the recovery and the China re-opening story, while Europe has gunned to within reach of all time (non-inflation adjusted) highs. Meanwhile, the debt ceiling concern level continues to intensify while we try to identify the next steps this week that will determine whether the odds for a mishap are rising or falling. For equities, this week brings the heart of earnings season, with a long list of megacaps and bellwether names reporting. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3UWzOYn -
Today features Saxo Chief Investment Officer Steen Jakobsen. In the market wrap session, we take a look at market sentiment softening, in part on soft US data and Tesla's very bad day, but perhaps as well as the debt ceiling crunch time is drawing nearer and is finding expression in corners of the markets. We also take a look at crude oil retreating further, while iron ore spilled lower again confounding the China re-opening bulls. Steen takes us through his thoughts on the debt ceiling issue, the China re-opening story, but especially the market's nervousness as geopolitical tectonic plates are shifting, as we discuss the recent seminal speech from ECB President Lagarde on "Central Banks in a fragmenting world" and all of its geopolitical and policy implications, adding to that US President Biden's setting up the May 19-21 G-7 meeting in Japan as a key incoming event risk on possible further moves against investment in China. Today's pod also features Ole Hansen on commodities, with John J. Hardy hosting.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3mI0PSJ -
Today we discuss the very quiet US equity market, highlighting that VIX has dropped to the lowest since late 2021 and with the gains this year driven by a very narrow slice of the largest megacap names, which have yet to report earnings for the cycle. Concerns looking forward include liquidity and the debt ceiling issue approaching crunch time. We also take a look at Tesla's results that saw that stock sharply lower after the close. Elsewhere, we discuss metals, climate change risks intensifying ironically due to cleaner air from new shipping fuel standards, and the big shift from La Nina to El Nino weather patterns underway and possible impacts. Incoming macro data and more also on today's pod, which features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3UKZYx5 -
Today we discuss the US market continuing to hold its breath ahead of key cycle resistance as European equities are also near all-time highs, at least in the EuroStoxx50. It's important to note that the US market rally has been driven by a short list of megacap names. Elsewhere, we round up Netflix and ASML and preview Tesla's earnings report after the close, and many US regional banks will be reporting in coming days, particularly tomorrow, so we should have a broad picture of the state of play for US bank stress by Friday. In commodities, we look at crude oil and natural gas, noting ETF flows that suggest investors are reducing exposure to oil upside. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3UIHxZG -
Today we discuss the market in a holding pattern, which is actually quite impressive given the further sharp advance in US treasury yields, in part on strong US data, including a whiplash turnaround in the April Empire Manufacturing survey. Is this a sign that the industrial policy initiatives the US has announced over the last few quarters are finally working their way into the numbers? Elsewhere, we note a seminal speech from ECB President Lagarde before a US think tank, in which she riffed on the "fragmenting" world and policy imperatives, including the aims of fiscal policy, CB interdependence and more. We will follow up in coming days on the importance of this speech. Elsewhere, we consider stocks to watch this earnings season, the latest on gold and wheat and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to Part 1 of this podcast:
In this continuation of the conversation from Part 1, we feature special guest Emil Sarauw, head of AI with Droids Agency, who takes us through his thoughts on all things Generative AI, from its applications to its implications. These span from envisioning how AI can provide a tremendous boost to productivity to some of the dangers it brings in terms of our ability as a society to trust information that is presented to us in all forms, from text to images and even video. We also have thoughts on how blockchain might address some of the latter dangers. Emil also peeks into the near and more distant future on the how the AI revolution will impact our professional and even personal lives. Also on the pod are Saxo's Peter Garnry and John J. Hardy.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Friday saw a solid jump in US treasury yields, one that the incoming data didn't really justify, suggesting that market players have an agenda here. Could that agenda be the sense that there was an overreaction to the immediate implications for Fed policy from the Silicon Valley Bank crisis? The results and outlook from regional US banks this week should help answer that question. We also look at the bump in US yields helping the USD to reverse sharply from recent weakness and offer extensive commodity market coverage, especially on positioning, crude oil and copper. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today we look at the market posting a strong session as US data was benign and as the US dollar rolled over to new cycle lows. Hard to read too much into local price action, however, as we await the Q1 earnings season kick-off today with the large US banks reporting and a heavy earnings calendar next week. We also delve into metals and commodity performance generally here, the end of the EuroDollar futures market as SOFR futures take over, the macro calendar for the week ahead and much more. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at the choppy reception of the US March CPI figures and evidence that inflation remains a problem, with the risk that energy prices re-aggravate the inflation story in coming months as oil breaks higher. The US dollar is on its knees and breaking lower - a situation that could extend here. We also look at key stocks to watch, including the great news from luxury giant LVMH and preview the coming attractions for this earnings season set to kick off on Friday. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today we look at the market continuing to hold its breath, likely in anticipation of today's US March CPI release, where a strong directional surprise could unleash the latest round of zany intraday volatility on 0DTE (zero-day-to-expiry) S&P 500 options. We also discuss the compelling Japanese equity market, crude oil breakout potential, softs and precious metals on fire and much more. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today we look at a market that doesn't want to stay down as signs of incoming economic weakness aren't yet urgent enough to spook confidence, while we're also unlikely to see a significant reheating of inflation concerns. This could mean we have room for an extension of the equity rally, provided earnings season doesn't bring worrying guidance. We also take a look at FX, crude oil and wheat, stocks to watch, the economic calendar for the rest of the week and more. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.
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In this special edition of the podcast, Saxo's John J. Hardy and Peter Garnry discuss the Generative AI phenomenon, both defining what it is and offering a few thoughts on its enormous potential impacts as Generative AI applications mature. The discussion also turns to the opportunities and especially the difficulties in finding publicly traded companies that are directly involved with Generative AI as virtually all of the pure-play activity in the space is still in the start-up phase. Plenty of food for thought on this technology, which is likely set to be the third great computing revolution after PC's were introduced in the late 70's and early 80's, then the internet arrived in the late 1990's and early 2000's.
Note: Sequoia Capital piece referenced extensively in the podcast.
Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Mi1Smo -
Yesterday saw a change of tone in the US on the far weaker than expected JOLTS survey of job openings, with the market reaction seemingly far more sharp than a single data point might justify, particularly in US treasuries. This sets up even more focus on incoming US labor market data in coming days. A letter from JP Morgan's Jamie Dimon bemoaning sustained risks for banks also spooked the market and banking stocks. We also discuss the massive wave of electrification to come and some of the equities that are involved in that process, discuss FX stories like the surprising large RBNZ hike overnight and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we struggle a bit with the market backdrop, as equities pulled back higher to post new local highs in places despite the huge surge in crude oil prices after the weekend OPEC cut announcement, perhaps as treasury yields wilted on the back of a weak ISM Manufacturing survey out of the US. More important incoming data lies ahead. We check in on FX after the RBA hold on further tightening overnight, discuss the crude oil market after the huge weekend gap, talk gold and wheat, and look at stocks to watch, including miner Teck Resources and biotech name Illumina. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at the strong close for US equities on Friday as they surged into month-, quarter-, and Japanese financial year-end, especially driven by a megacap surge and hype in names linked to the generative artificial intelligence phenomenon. The party was partly spoiled at the weekend on OPEC announcing a surprise cut in production, which triggered a several dollar jolt higher in crude oil prices. Elsewhere, we look at the week ahead on the macro calendar, with the RBA set to meet Tuesday, and look at Tesla's delivery numbers for Q1, grains and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today we look at the narrow slice of companies, especially the market cap heavyweights that are taking the big US indices higher, while we note that all does not look well beneath the surface. We also break down the somewhat incoherent market view on the Fed vs. equities, as Fed rate cuts later this year would seem to require a rapid deterioration of the economic outlook. A look at Tesla and CATL looking to build batteries in the US, Netflix news, the busy economic calendar for the week ahead and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.
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In today's podcast we talk about the improved momentum in equities driven by technology stocks and especially with yesterday's best performing theme being semiconductors driven by AI focus, strong EV demand, and improving demand for memory chips in data centers. We also talk Sweden as a showcase of the impact from tighter credit conditions and the new financial year in Japan. On commodities we cover oil with a focus on recent changes to the Brent crude contract and the slowing production in the US due to cost pressures, lastly on commodities we highlight recent developments in the grain markets. Finally, we cover better than expected earnings from H&M and talk about US non-financial corporate profit margins reached the highest levels in 2022 since the end of WWII. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole S. Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy on FX.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Risk sentiment is on the rise with the second straight session yesterday in equities with procyclical industry groups such as energy, transportation, banks, and mining rallying. Today's sentiment is extended with news that Alibaba is splitting into six separate business rallying 13% on the news. We also got a strong outlook from Lululemon yesterday and better than expected US March consumer confidence highlighting a strong US economy despite the obvious cracks at banks and real estate. In today's podcast we also cover the positive momentum in oil markets and gold that continues to benefit from the recent nervousness over banks. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities..
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Today we note that, while bank stocks bounced strongly in the US yesterday and yields mean reverted back higher, the broader market was uninspired by these developments and tech stocks sold off after failing once again to take out the key cycle resistance. We continue to fret the next shoes to drop and bemoan the lack of good indicators to get a sense of where the worst pressures in the system lie (likely in the darker corners of shadow banking and private equity). A look at rebounding commodities, especially oil and copper, stocks to watch, the macro calendar ahead and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at the market trying to breathe a sigh of relief, but with concerns lingering, not only on the risk of another round of bank turmoil as the weakest links may be in commercial real estate and real estate exposures, but also on the likelihood that this latest crisis has brought the recession forward via an incoming credit crunch. We delve into earnings for the week ahead, commodities positioning and precious metals, FX themes and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today we look at the multi-speed market, as tech stocks tried to pump on vague new language from US Treasury Secretary Yellen aimed at softening prior comments on the official posture to banking system turmoil. Alas, US bank stocks were in for a further drubbing yesterday and we also discuss the negative focus on European banks is pummeling sentiment into early trading in Europe as well. Also on the call: the knock-on effects of all of this into FX, earnings watch next week, the China re-opening story fighting for attention and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at the market's negative reaction to Yellen clearly stating that she has never discussed "anything having to do with blanket insurance or guarantees of deposits" at the same time Powell was holding the FOMC press conference. While the Fed kept its dot plot policy forecasts unchanged, the market ignored this as the Fed is clearly pivoting with this latest statement, which introduced new language on recent developments impacting credit conditions and the economy. We assess the impact of Yellen's statements across markets, including gold and FX, consider the situation for European banks, especially on real estate pressures, note stocks to watch, preview the Bank of England today and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we discuss the uncertainty around the Fed's interest rate decision and guidance at today's FOMC meeting, where the Powell Fed faces the unenviable task of weighing financial stability risks against ongoing inflation risks, with the market leaning more strongly for a hike now but watching whether the Fed is willing to cave on its "higher for longer" forward guidance. And in the event the Fed does pause, will the market celebrate this or be spooked that the Fed sees things as worse than feared? We also look at where unease is greatest among global banks, note hot UK CPI numbers in this morning, crude oil, grains positioning surprises and gold. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at the eerie calm across markets after the two consecutive weekend interventions to deal with systemic risks from failing banks. We also discuss whether the FOMC will be willing to market its forecasts anywhere near where market expectations have shifted in its forward guidance at tomorrow's meeting, look at copper, natural gas and platinum, stocks to watch, including Amazon, where we wonder if activist investors could soon make an appearance and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at the weekend's shotgun wedding arranged by the SNB that sees UBS taking over Credit Suisse with a number of liquidity guarantees and a massive eyebrow-raising wipeout of Credit Suisse's Tier1 debt. That last move has markets unsettled on the implications as it breaks the assumed rules of engagement for bankruptcies, putting bank debt and bank shares under heavy pressure this morning. We also look at what the Fed may do on Wednesday after the crazy repricing of the yield curve, the week ahead for equity earnings and macro event risks and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we note the strong comeback in sentiment yesterday after an initial dip on the ECB moving ahead with a 50 basis point hike that surprised many and was initially read as a possible policy mistake. An injection of cash into troubled lender First Republic Bank in the US by peers in the banking industry was also behind some of the brightening in sentiment yesterday. We talk through the difficulty in interpreting market signals here when the first move in a shock is simply to reverse prior trends, something that doesn't always add information value. We also look at positive versus negative interpretations of the backdrop, action in key commodities and the earnings and macro calendar for the week ahead and more. Today's pod features Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we continue to highlight the tremendous volatility in asset markets, particularly bonds, on the bank-centered turmoil and wonder whether the extension of a lifeline by the Swiss National Bank to Credit Suisse will provide any calm beyond the immediate relief that the latest weakest link isn't set to break. We also look at the ECB's impossible task at its meeting today as it juggles concerns with financial stability and its formerly most-hawkish guidance, we note the turmoil slipping into the commodity markets and much more. Today's pod features Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at the market's attempt to piece together some calm after the sudden trauma and lightning official response/bailout of depositors after the SVB bankruptcy. We highlight the need for more time to assess the fallout, continuing to note the longer term risks to credit transmission if recent events have served as a wake-up call for depositors, who have yet to demand higher returns on their savings. A look at earnings and macro data on watch through next week's FOMC meeting as well. Today's pod features Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Still very early days, as we ponder the ongoing fallout from the turmoil in the US banking system, which has triggered a massive collapse in yields as the market brings forward the end of the Fed's tightening cycle. One significant danger is that we risk a credit crunch as banks are forced to scramble for funding and deposits. We highlight areas and indicators that are flashing red, the impact of the situation into currencies, precious metals, and equity sectors. Today's pod features Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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We follow up on Friday's big event with SVB Financial failing as a financial institution which set in motion a US government backstop of uninsured deposits over the weekend which extended to Signature Bank which was also taken over by the US government yesterday. We focus on the market reaction across equities, US bonds, interbank spreads, and gold with our main message being that nobody knows what will happen next. It is all one big guessing this week on fallout from the failure of SVB Financial. Today's pod features Peter Garnry and Ole S. Hansen.
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Markets got big jolt yesterday when Silvergate Capital announced a liquidation of the bank that has suffered from the implosion in cryptocurrencies. The event cascaded into SVB Financial (Silicon Valley Bank) plunging 60% in the main session and another 20% in extended trading as the bank has been forced to sell bonds at great losses. These moves cascaded further into other banking stocks and led equity futures lower in Asian and European trading. JD.com also announced a weaker than expected Q1 revenue outlook saying the Chinese consumer is weaker than estimated and that the extended lockdown has impacted behaviour. In today's podcast we go through the implications of the SVB Financial fallout and what it means for markets moves and especially with the large trading volumes in zero-day-to-expiry (0DTE) options. We also cover the JPY following the BoJ meeting and the moves in CHF on banking risk-off. Finally, we cover Fed Funds pricing, gold and other commodities, and next week's earnings releases which will focus on Volkswagen, BMW, Adobe, and Lennar. A warning shot has been fired yesterday. Be vigilant on risks today and stay safe. Today's pod features Steen Jakobsen, Peter Garnry, and Ole S. Hansen.
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Today we look at a market that is holding its breath in anticipation of incoming US data to refresh the probabilities that the Fed feels forced to re-accelerate the pace of rate hikes at the March 22. But as well, all traders need to consider the Bank of Japan meeting risk up overnight tonight as a surprisingly large adjustment from Kuroda could set even global bond and equity markets on edge, not just the Japanese yen. We also look at interesting stories in equities, from the latest on ASML to CATL and other companies. Today's pod features Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at the market swooning as it is forced to price the Fed terminal rate higher still after Fed Chair Powell pointed to higher rates than previously expected and even expressed a willingness to re-accelerate the pace of hikes if the "totality" of data points toward higher inflation risks again. We also look at the reaction to Powell's rhetoric in the US yield curve and across commodities and FX. Thoughts on earnings from cybersecurity firms Darktrace and Crowdstrike and from Adidas and much more also on today's pod, which features Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at the choppy equity market failing to extend the upside momentum for now as we triangulate mid-range ahead of a series of event risks, among these two days of Fed Chair Powell testimony starting today. Overnight, Australia's RBA announced a dovish hike, clearly looking for excuses to pause its tightening regime - is this a policy mistake in the making? We also look at evidence on what may have driven China's about-face on stimulating its economy, crude oil, natgas and wheat & other grain markets and much more. Today's pod features Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at the strong comeback in equity markets Friday as yields dipped sharply, providing some relief after the recent strong ramp higher. Still, it is interesting to note that inflation expectations may be undergoing a sea change as well, which has come to the aid of gold. Elsewhere, we gauge the market reaction to China's policy signals, note the busy week ahead on the central bank front, with the RBA up tonight, Fed Chair Powell out speaking in testimony before Congressional panels tomorrow and Wednesday and the Bank of Japan on Friday, which will be Governor Kuroda's final meeting. This and much more on today's pod features Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we discuss the lack of conviction in the market after the action spilled lower below the 200-day moving average but failed to follow through and backed up to close the session higher, despite fresh pressure from rising yields, as the 10-year treasury benchmark took out the 4.00% level. In equities, a breakdown of what European equities have to offer relative to US equities. In commodities, focus on gold and natural gas. A look at the week ahead calendar for both earnings and especially macro as well. Today's pod features Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at the market closing on a weak note on a fresh rise in Treasury yields and then spilling lower in later trading after Tesla's investor event was a damp squib. Elsewhere, inflation remains very much on the brain in Europe, with today's Eurozone-wide inflation print for February rounding out the set of February CPI reports across the bloc. In FX, sterling feels the heat on dithering BoE governor Bailey. In commodities, the latest on copper and crude oil and in equities, thoughts on where we are in the current historic drawdown. Today's pod features Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at the stunning official February Manufacturing PMI numbers out China overnight, which suggested the most rapid pace of expansion in China's manufacturing sector in over a decade. We look at how this development propagated through commodities and currencies, as well as the impact on EU rates after hot CPI numbers from France and Spain yesterday. Thoughts on inflation and real growth, stocks and earnings to watch, weakening US Consumer Confidence expectations and what that signals and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at yields remaining near cycle highs, with US equities struggling into the close after an odd, intraday rally stumbled. Note that end of month is rolling into view today after a terrible month for bonds, with the US 2-year yield up 60 basis points month-to-date into today. On that note, we delve into whether yields really have any bearing on company investment. Elsewhere, pondering what inspires crude to pull itself out of the range, forward curves in the commodity space, the struggling JPY, Tesla's incoming Investor Day and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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The hot core US January PCE inflation data spooked markets on Friday as the market was forced to take Fed rate hike expectations to new cycle highs, with even discussion of the possibility of a 50-bp hike at the March FOMC meeting. Equities have been quick to recover as critical support held Friday, but the USD is firmer. Elsewhere, we note the many assets linked to the China reopening narrative struggling, from copper and other metals to AUD, etc., we also look at grain prices hitting new 1-year lows, look at the focus for equity markets this week on incoming earnings and more. Today's pod features Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at the expression of the China recovery narrative in markets continuing to struggle, with the Chinese currency weakening and commodities generally under pressure, with a fresh sell-off in copper overnight that reversed the recent rally. In FX, the Aussie weak on that account, while the JPY is adrift after a damp squib from Ueda's nomination hearings. Elsewhere, we delve into shareholder yield perspective for the US market, European listed companies closing in on the US in earnings margin performance, the still fragile sentiment backdrop on geopolitical concerns. We also look at the week ahead in earnings and macro data. Today's pod features Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at market sentiment remaining fragile ahead of the next support levels for the major US indices, which are the important ones for a . We again highlight the geopolitical risks as a possible trigger for a significant capitulation in sentiment, even as rising yields are already driving concerns. We discuss the comedy of NVidia continuing to pretend that crypto-mining doesn't exist, delve into the struggling China recovery narrative as expressed by commodities, the JPY focus in FX tonight as Japan reports CPI and BoJ Governor nominee Ueda is set to testify and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we break down the worst session in US equities in some two months, as traders finally wake up to the risks of higher treasury yields, but also possibly on concerns that wage pressures may drive a negative impact on corporate margins. On that front, interesting to note the market reaction to Walmart and Home Depot earnings and guidance. A look at FX themes, earnings and macro data ahead and more also on the today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we are watching and waiting for the US to come back online after the three-day weekend as the close on Friday has kept equity markets and the US dollar in limbo. We discuss the remarkably steep natural gas forward curve at length and what it is telling us, highlight interesting retail names reporting earnings today in the US, and note the huge headline risks in geopolitics as Russia's Putin is out speaking today with China's top diplomat in Moscow. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Ensvlf -
Today we look at the solid bounce in risk sentiment on Friday ahead of a three-day weekend in the US (where markets are closed for Presidents Day today) as US treasury yields rolled over and took the USD lower as well, a bearish reversal for the greenback just as it was trying to break free to the upside. In commodities, we focus on copper and crude and the lack of follow-through in the China re-opening narrative. In FX, we touch on the USD reversal, the JPY this week and NZD and SEK. In stocks to watch, a discussion of Deere and its strong results on Friday as well as the busy week ahead in earnings reports, where a wide variety of companies are reporting. But drowning out everything is the risk of an escalation in the US-China confrontation after the US warned China in stark language against providing lethal aid to Russia. This after VP Harris charged Russia with crimes against humanity in its assault on Ukraine. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/414Ihem -
Today we look at risk sentiment spooked badly yesterday, first by strong US data, and then later by a Tesla recall announcement that suddenly cratered the most speculative corner of the options market ahead of the weekly expiry for Tesla options today. US 10-year yields are near the pivot highs from late December and ahead of heavy new issuance incoming next week. We also discuss our new luxury theme basket which we think will be a more "pure luxury" collection of companies than many of the broader luxury ETF's out there. The latest in FX, the earnings and macro calendars for the week ahead and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3lIYIgf -
Today we look at the equity market remaining buoyant if not yet following through higher, even as US treasury yields remain pinned near the highs of the cycle after strong US Retail Sales yesterday. Also, we have a possible interesting twist in the US seasonals and a warning from JPMorgan's options expert on the "Volmaggedon 2.0" risks from the 0DTE options trading. Stocks to watch, including Shopify and Nestle, and much more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3lwPzr7 -
Today we look at the market's unsuccessful attempt to draw meaning from yesterday's CPI data, but US yields ending the day near the highs for the cycle, in terms of Fed expectation ahead of today's US January Retail Sales print. We also look at a significant change of temperature in the China recovery story overnight, discuss AirBnB results and outlook as a sign of a resilient US economy and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3k2LnyS -
Today we look at the odd session yesterday in the US, with no readily apparent proximate cause to the rally outside, perhaps of traders hedging today's US January CPI release, which could trigger considerable volatility, especially on the impact of heavy 0DTE options trading if the release is a big surprise in either direction. We also note tightening financial conditions in the corporate bond market, talk market reaction to incoming earnings data, including from ThyssenKrupp, SolarEdge and Palantir, and look at today's crop of earnings reports, as well as stories impacting FX & more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3E2AGDc -
Today we look at the market narrative around the coming "landing" and what might happen if the economy re-accelerates and the market has to price in a "no landing" scenario. The key is the long end of the yield curve, which has remained very anchored for a few months. Elsewhere, we discuss the important US January CPI release coming up tomorrow, discuss Interesting stocks to watch as some vulnerable companies seek liquidity and Lyft craters in contrast to Uber's recent report, and look at earnings reports up today. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3RPuTGP -
Today we look at the US market turning lower again yesterday and closing down through an important level that was providing resistance on the way, setting up the technical situation of a risk of downside capitulation. Higher US yields weighed and the US dollar rallied yesterday, although the big news in FX was a watershed Swedish Riksbank meeting that blasted the Swedish krona higher. Breaking this morning was the unanticipated news of the nominee for BoJ Governor, which sparked JPY volatility. We also delve into the disastrous news from Adidas this morning, the earnings calendar this week, commodity developments, the latest on natural gas and the week ahead macro calendar. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/40Fq1It -
The Saxo Q1 2023 Outlook
Today we look at the choppy market action as yesterday's sell-off has been in turn partially reversed by a strong report from Disney after the close, with the company’s stock jumping on cost-cutting and job cut announcements. We also wonder whether Uber's guidance and performance suggest a phase shift in the company’s and other companies’ potential. In commodities, we look at crude oil, natural gas, gold and grains. FX traders are awaiting for clarity on the identity of the new BoJ governor, while SEK has jumped on a hawkish Riksbank surprise as we were recording the podcast. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3I8xMj1 -
The Saxo Q1 2023 Outlook
Today we look at the strong market rally yesterday after considerable volatility in the wake of Fed Chair Powell's interview. In the end, the market decided that Powell is benign and not anxious to push back against market expectations or the dovish interpretation of last week's FOMC meeting. We look at leading market sectors that suggest the market is pricing increasing probability of a new upswing in the economy. We also break down key stocks to watch, including Cybersecurity leader Fortinet, Vestas and more. In FX, the focus is on whether the USD rally can continue if the market feels the Fed is passive here. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3E9G5J5 -
The Saxo Q1 2023 Outlook
Today we look at the cross-market developments after the latest surge in US treasury yields and the US dollar on the market pricing Fed peak rate expectations back higher, wondering if the equity market can hold up under the pressure. In FX, the RBA waxed more hawkish overnight and Japan's December wage inflation data was the hottest in 25 years. Crude oil, gold, stocks to watch today, our Outlook dropping today and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3wWC86b -
Today we break down the massive January jobs report surprise out of the US on Friday as the positive surprise was a multi-sigma event that shocked US yields and the US dollar back higher. The timing added to the reaction function after USD bears were already wrong-footed by a dovish ECB and Bank of England the prior day. We also look at the confusing mix of data that is keeping the signal-to-noise ratio on the direction of the economy very low. In equities, we look at what now be an entrenched secular decline in cloud computing growth, the earnings season for the week ahead and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3l64rg2 -
Today we look at the market running away to the upside again yesterday in a melt-up driven by Meta's squeezing 25% higher and the Bank of England and ECB surprising loudly on the dovish side as they may pause their tightening regimes ahead of schedule. In late trading, the mood shifted to the downside on downbeat earnings reports from the three mega-caps Apple, Alphabet and Amazon all reporting after the close. We also look at the ugly gold reversal, soft commodities in the spotlight, earnings season still in full swing next week, the macro data up today and next week and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3l4DE3P -
Today we look at the market ripping higher still after the FOMC statement and Powell press conference left plenty of room for the market to feel that its forward expectations for the Fed easing by later this year are spot-on, allowing the recent squeeze or rally in US markets to extend higher still, and through key resistance. We also look at strong Meta results after hours and preview the mother lode of earnings reports up today. A look a the reaction to the FOMC in FX as well as a preview for the ECB and BoE today, a run-down of crude oil and precious metals and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3XUY11O -
Today we look at the market gunning back higher after a soft employment cost index report for Q4 and, wouldn't you know it, a WSJ Timiraos article touting the possibility of a Fed pause after another March hike. What can Powell and company do today in the press conference to get financial conditions to tighten? And then we have the ongoing blitz of earnings reports, with Meta a concern today after a very weak Snap yesterday. Crude oil, metals, FX and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3kXwQEK -
Today we look at the sudden reversal in risk sentiment yesterday as US equities made an abrupt about-face and turned sharply lower, just after having challenged interesting resistance levels. No surprise to the see the US dollar gaining a strong bid on the change of mood, as the market suddenly shows a modicum of respect for incoming event risks, including tomorrow's FOMC meeting. A look at the shifting fundamentals for banks, earnings reports to watch today and tomorrow, crude oil and gold & much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3HpAoaK -
Today we look at the market squeeze in the US continuing into the close last week, with bubble stocks finishing the week with a furious additional squeeze and Tesla up over 10% and now 75% from its lows from earlier this month. The Fed can't be happy and is likely set to push back as hard as it can against easing financial conditions at this Wednesday's FOMC meeting. Will it succeed? We also dive into the latest on copper and crude oil, the very busy earnings and macro calendar this week and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3R9lt8M -
Today we look at the US equity market posting another strong session and bulling toward the last major local resistance area in the S&P 500, with the Nasdaq 100 closer to the key resistance and managing a close above the 200-day moving average yesterday. We express strong concerns that the market is ignoring the risk of margin pressure on company profits this year. We also look at the massive downdraft in Adani after short-selling outfit Hindenburg issued its report on the company, wondering at the scale of the contagion. Concerns for global food prices, latest thoughts on crude, the huge week ahead for earnings, central bank meetings and macro data and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3XEe83F -
Today we look at the US market once again righting itself, rallying hard from intraday weakness and the gap lower in Microsoft after its earnings report from the prior day, and keeping the sense of suspense on the coming market direction very much alive as the price action is churning in pivotal areas on the chart. Tesla's report after hours and outlook kept that stock in rallying form as well. US yields eased again, and the Bank of Canada hiked, but indicated that it will pause its tightening cycle for now, one of the first non-EM banks to do so and driving hopes that other central banks will soon follow suit. A look at crude oil, wheat, gold, the earnings calendar ahead and more also on today's pod, which features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Rch59i -
Today we look at the US market treading water and even dipping a bit after hours, spooked in part by Microsoft guidance and 3M results for the quarter and mulling the incoming Tesla earnings report today after the close after the most popular stock for speculators has rallied over 40% off the recent lows. We note that demand for US treasuries at yesterday's 2-year auction was the strongest in over two years, take stock of the AUD surge overnight on a strong Q4 CPI report, wrap ASML results and look at the rest of today's busy earnings calendar, with a wide variety of companies reporting. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3JcTpzw -
Today we discuss the US equity market melting up technically at an awkward moment, as leading indicators suggest we are barreling into a recession. In any case, a big test ahead as earnings season kicks off in earnest with today's batch of companies reporting, including beaten down mega-cap Microsoft after hours. In commodities, a check-in with crude oil, silver's ugly dip relative to still-strong gold, and one of the most shorted commodities, coffee. Stocks to watch today, the macro calendar picking up and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3wkQ0XV -
Today we look at Friday's strong resurgence in US equities, which came after a seeming strong rejection of the rally into pivotal levels in the US S&P 500 index. This leaves market technicals in limbo ahead of the blast of earnings reports from large US companies this week and next. We also discuss confusing macro signals as financial conditions continue to ease, although treasury yields have pulled back from their recent slide. Also on the pod: the latest positioning data in commodities markets, natural gas on colder weather, wheat and coffee under pressure, JPY weaker, a look ahead at this week's busy earnings and less busy macro calendar and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we note that rebounding yields on hawkish ECB talk and another very strong weekly jobless claims report out of the US have the JPY weakening again, but not supporting the US dollar outside of USDJPY. Elsewhere, we look at stronger than expected results from Netflix and weaker than expected results from Procter and Gamble as volumes drop due to price hikes. A look at crude oil dynamics now that the EU is attempting its embargo on Russian crude, gold maintaining remarkable strength and avoiding notable consolidation, the macro calendar for the week ahead and more. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3ZPdT7e -
Today, we look at the US equity market reacting poorly to bad US economic data yesterday rather than celebrating the drop in treasury yields to new cycle lows, an interesting change of behavior. We also look at the suddenly firming US dollar and an even firmer Japanese yen overnight, just a day after the Bank of Japan triggered a slide in the yen. Gold holding steady through all of the fuss, while cyclical commodities rolled over a bit as China is set to go off line next week for the Lunar New Year holiday. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3kpPRzF -
Today, we look at the jolt back to the downside for the JPY after wily Bank of Japan governor Kuroda failed to deliver further policy tweaks and looks set to end his time at the helm in April without offering further policy tightening. Still, the JPY may not sell-off much more beyond the knee-jerk as bond yields are on the decline, keeping spreads to "capped" Japanese yields orderly and even tighter. Elsewhere, we note easign financial conditions and plenty of USD liquidity and whether it has the potential to driver further gains for risky assets and a weaker US dollar. We also dive into the latest on crude oil and metals, and earnings reports and macro data up today in the US. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3XeSVgD -
Today, we look at the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting, noting the extreme anticipation around the event, together with the likelihood of considerable intraday volatility in the wake of the event, even if the Bank of Japan tries to deliver as little as possible, as we all know that new leadership and a likely further tightening of policy is in the pipeline with Kuroda's replacement after April. A look at crude oil, copper, upcoming earnings and macro data and more on today's pod, which features macro strategist Charu Chanana on the BoJ, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3ZFqklV -
Today, we look at an interesting week ahead as US equities continue to trade up against a pivotal resistance area (just above the 200-day moving average and just below the 4,000 level for the US SP& 500 index) as earnings season set for a big blast next week. Today US markets are closed. The event risk of the week, meanwhile, is the hotly anticipated Bank of Japan meeting on Wednesday, with markets unsure on whether Governor Kuroda and company are set to deliver further policy tweaks. Futures positioning in commodities, especially metals and the latest on natural gas in Europe and more on today's pod, which features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3ZvKoaz -
Today we look at the ironically in-line US CPI release yesterday and the market eventually deciding that the data was benign. Equity markets rallied into very critical resistance levels as US treasury yields dipped into the range lows and financial conditions eased. While the US dollar was weaker, the big mover in FX was the JPY, which is pounding stronger into anticipation of a further policy tweak at next Wednesday's Bank of Japan meeting. In commodities, we look at the jump in grains on the WASDE report, talk natural gas, metals as gold has traded into key levels after the CPI release and more. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3k03vco -
Today we look at global equity markets gunning for more to the upside, apparently expecting a benign US CPI release today and pricing in a soft landing scenario as long treasury yields settled back lower after a strong US 10-year treasury auction yesterday. We also look at a resurgent JPY, why the euro is strong, but some thoughts on longer term caution, coffee and grains in commodities, the latest expansion plans abroad from TSMC, weak housing news but strong housing stocks & more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we discuss the bounce-back in US equity markets as we are all supposedly holding our breath for a CPI release tomorrow when the last soft CPI release in December drove zany intraday volatility and a rally that was quickly erased - etching out a market top at the time. Elsewhere, we discuss the conflicting signals from expanding US credit while another sentiment survey disappoints, look at strong metals markets as a clear expression of hopes for a China-driven recovery, Apple's deepening vertical integration moves as it looks to ditch Samsung screens, and much more. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we note that the major European equity markets have come full circle since the Russian invasion of Ukraine last February, in part driven by a near freefall in natural gas prices over the last few weeks on mild weather. How much more can the market wring out of this development? We also note the reversal in the US equity market rally yesterday ahead of the important CPI data on Thursday. In equities, focus toward the end of the week on the major US banks reporting, but in the meantime, we have the important news for Google of a $10 billion investment in OpenAI as the future of internet search is heating up for the first time in many years. This and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at the mixed US jobs report on Friday and more importantly, the wild reaction to a very weak December ISM Services survey, while we question whether a single data point deserves such a strong reaction function. Regardless, the market took down US treasury yields and the US dollar in the wake of the data. Elsewhere, the market is scrambling to absorb the remarkable policy shift out of China, with metals, AUD and especially CNH firming further. A look at stocks to watch, perspective on the big US banks as they are the first to report for the upcoming earnings season on Friday. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today, we look at the market reaction to strong US labor market data yesterday, which triggered higher yields as the market was forced to mark the Fed policy rate higher for longer this year. Equities dropped and the US dollar surged, but the main even awaits today in the form of the US official jobs and average hourly earnings data as well as the December ISM Services is also up later today. On that note, heavy interest in very short-dated options could mean huge volatility swings on big data surprises today. Elsewhere, all things China-related are also on the move, including the yuan as every day brings new signs of official support for the economy. A look at earnings next week, metals, & more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today, we look at the market continuing to stumble around in the range, with little conviction emerging so far this year. Will this mean a trigger-happy reaction to incoming data? Elsewhere, we look at the gold rally fading, crude oil ripping lower and the Japanese yen mean reverting to weakness after its spectacular two-month rally, a likely sign of near-term exhaustion for that move. We also discuss Amazon chopping more jobs than expected, the still tight US labor market and much more. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today, we note that today's inter-market picture makes far more sense than what we saw yesterday as some low inflation data in Europe is helping to drive global bond yields lower, lifting risk sentiment and seeing a weaker US dollar. This came after a volatile and confusing day yesterday. The biggest winner of the first couple of days this year has been gold, which has soared above major resistance. We also look at the latest Tesla plunge and some of the network effects that may be aggravating its decline, discuss the reversal in crude oil prices and new lows in natural gas prices and how markets may continue to flourish on signs of a weakening economy. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today, we remind traders that the market action doesn't really start for much of global liquidity until today's opening of UK and US markets, with Japan not even set to start trading until tomorrow. This makes the JPY volatility in particularly difficult to interpret in thin markets. Most of the USD move that has unfolded this morning did so during and after the recording of this podcast, but we suggest that it is important to wait for the US data on Friday for a firmer sense of where the market stands on the US dollar and other markets, including gold. Today we also discuss the important year ahead for Tesla, with more products and platforms in the mix than at any time in its history, contrasting its outlook with that of Volkswagen. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today, we look at how markets closed last year, noting the weakening of the US dollar in to year-end even as US treasury yields backed up into year end. Despite those higher yields, USDJPY trades near multi-month lows in anticipation of the Bank of Japan and the Fed moving in opposite directions with their policy for the balance of this year. Elsewhere, we dive into commodity positioning and the energy market as mild weather continues to drive gas and power prices down in Europe while crude oil actually rallied. A look at energy stories to track this year and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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In this Special Edition of the podcast, the Saxo Market Call crew reveal our Listeners' predictions for the S&P 500, Fed Funds and the US 10-year yield in 2023. We also offer our thoughts on the same and run down a whole bevy of questions our listeners sent, including on our energy future, whether fossil fuel, alternative or nuclear, geopolitics of trade and currencies, investment themes and market returns, scenarios for inflation and more. We also highlight some recommended reading (lots more in the slide deck) and even reveal some of our personal interests in our downtime. A huge thank you to all of the listeners who responded and made 2022 a great year for the Saxo Market Call podcast! On this special edition of the podcast were Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.
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This Special Edition of the podcast features an interview with Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen on the outlook for 2023 after a remarkably brutal year for investors in 2022 on the double whammy of bear markets in both bonds and equities. In particular, the conversation looks at the misguided optimism for next year that is ironically based on a base case of disinflation, recession and an eventual return of central bank easing, the impact of China coming back online, and where investors should focus their efforts for achieving returns in coming years. John J. Hardy hosts.
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Slide deck for this episode: https://bit.ly/3PukShj -
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In this special edition podcast we outline our equity outlook for next year. We come around a wide range of topics such as recession, inflation, China, Tesla, energy sector, Europe, earnings, margin compression, and equity valuation. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities and Kim Cramer Larsson on technical analysis.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3HTyTTX -
In this Special Edition of the Saxo Market Call podcast, host John J. Hardy discusses the wild year of 2022 for commodities and what may be in store for the commodities markets in 2023 with Saxo's Head of Commodity Strategy, Ole Hansen. We delve into what the forward curve is telling us, market positioning in commodities and zero in on Crude Oil, copper and the precious metals and Natural Gas.
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Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3vfDR5X -
In this Special Edition of the podcast, we discuss what investors are hoping to see in 2023 after the most traumatic year for "balanced" portfolios in modern memory. Items on the Wish List include hopes for a soft landing, easing pressure from central banks as inflation fades, a weaker US dollar, Chinese demand returning and more. But is this what investors will get? Discussing these pressing wish list items for the New Year on this special edition podcast are Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Slide deck for this episode: https://bit.ly/3HSUsUw -
Saxo Outrageous Predictions 2023: The War Economy PDF -
Saxo Outrageous Predictions Webinar with the strategy team -
In this Special Edition of the podcast, we discuss the Saxo 2023 Outrageous Predictions for 2023, based on the theme of The War Economy. Our Outrageous Predictions are a yearly exercise in looking at possible, if improbable events that may unfold in the year ahead and will alter the investment landscape if they do come to pass. This Special Edition podcast features Editor-in-Chief of the 2023 Outrageous Predictions John J. Hardy and major contributor Peter Garnry.
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Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.
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We want to hear from you, our daily Saxo Market Call podcast listeners! Friday, December 30 we will release a Special Edition Saxo Market Call Listeners Podcast. The content? Entirely up to you: let us know what you would like for Peter, Ole and John to talk about - markets, personal or otherwise. As well, please provide your end 2023 forecasts for:
The S&P 500, the Fed Funds rate & the US 10yr yield.
Send your forecasts and request to the SMC team: via e-mail: marketcall@saxobank.com and on Twitter: @saxomarketcall
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3PGhjok -
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Today we look at markets posting an indifferent day yesterday after an initially negative reaction to the bump in global yields on the Bank of Japan's policy tweak. We also discuss precious metals jump yesterday, the lay of the land in natural gas markets in Europe and crude oil markets globally, the escalating risks for Tesla as it posted an especially ugly day yesterday despite Musk possibly moving away from Twitter distractions, earnings from Nike and FedEx and more. Today is the final regular daily Saxo Market Call podcast for 2022. Stay tuned in coming days for a string or recently recorded Special Edition podcasts that will keep listeners with their daily fix through to December 30. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3WqOONm -
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Today we look at the Bank of Japan shocking markets overnight with a surprise shift in its yield-curve-control policy, as it lifted the cap on 10-year JGB's to 50 basis points from 25 basis points. The JPY rose in stepwise fashion together with the jump in longer Japanese yields and global yields were also impacted, taking risk sentiment lower. In commodities, we discuss metals and natural gas. In equities, we discuss the outlook for European defense stocks, including Rheinmetall and cover upcoming earnings reports from Nike, where the bar of market expectations looks high, and from FedEx, where the bar of expectations is quite low. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3VaVYnU -
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Today we look at whether investors have anything left to express in global markets for the balance of this calendar year after the traumatic experience for portfolios that 2022 has delivered. We delve into the latest on Tesla as its stock price continues to crater, we check in on FX positioning and special impacts on the US dollar from debt ceiling shenanigans that are afoot once again head of the new Congress set to take charge in two weeks time, look at precious metals technicals, stocks to watch this week and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3UZqbGx
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Today we look at an ugly day for global equity markets, with a bloodbath in Europe yesterday on a suddenly over-ambitious ECB that surprised with maximum hawkishness and spiked European rates, even if this ECB will hardly be able to carry out significantly more tightening than its global central bank peers from here. The Bank of England, meanwhile, surprised on the dovish side, taking down sterling several notches. We also look at natural gas and commodity backwardation perspectives, an interesting signal from First Quantum Mineral's run-in with Panama's government, earnings for the week ahead and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Wh2MS2 -
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Today we look at the FOMC waxing about as hawkish as one could expect with higher inflation and rate projections for next year, especially relative to market expectations. And yet, despite some churning, US yields and the US dollar reacted very modestly to the meeting. Still, this morning has seen some sudden USD strength and weak risk sentiment - could this be due to forward liquidity concerns rather than anything the Fed delivered yesterday? Thoughts on precious metals, crude oil, today's heavy central bank calendar and more also today's pod, which features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3WeCzUi -
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Today we look at yesterday's reaction to the softer than expected US November CPI data, with equity market upside fading quickly even as the reaction in US yields and the US dollar was stickier. We also discuss today's upcoming FOMC meeting, with the Fed facing a tough task if it wants to push back against easing market conditions and Fed policy expectations today. We also look at Tesla posting new cycle lows and concerns for the stock and EV market, Apple, Inditex, crude oil, precious metals, and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole S Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3hm7gYN -
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Today, we highlight the absurd levels of volatility around recent US CPI releases ahead of today's US November CPI data point, noting signs that market speculators and hedgers are revving up for another blast of volatility in the wake of today's release. At the same time, we suggest that the reaction function may be difficult as the FOMC meeting follows hot on the heels of this release the following day. Elsewhere, we look at precious metals and copper levels, whether regulators will (or should) approve mergers like the Novozymes-Christian Hansen attempt, earnings to watch for the rest of the week and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3HnKoTo -
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Today, we look at what will likely prove a volatile week ahead for financial markets as the monthly US CPI release due tomorrow has sparked tremendous volatility and is up tomorrow, with an FOMC meeting and fresh set of Fed dot plot policy forecasts to follow on Wednesday. Elsewhere, we focus on the odd combination of power prices spiking in Europe even as gas prices ease, discuss low open interest in the commodities market, look at the week ahead in earnings and more. Today's pod features Ole S Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Pdd9E4
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Today, we look at recent commodity market performance, where hopes for a reopening of Chinese activity is weighed against concerns for the forward outlook elsewhere. We also highlight the market's conviction that the Fed will be cutting rates in the second half of next year and wonder how the market will treat a less accommodative dot plot from the Fed at next Wednesday's FOMC meeting. A look at recent earnings reports, soybeans ahead of today's important WASDE report and much more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole S Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Y3gQAi -
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Today, we look at the overall sense that market players don't want to take any strong new bets until we get to the other side of Dec 31. We also look US treasury yields dropping through pivotal levels at the longer end of the curve and the remarkable fact that the curve remains near its most inverted even as the 2-year yield is at local range lows. The market is increasingly convinced that Fed easing is set to start within 12 months after a bit more hiking next week and early next year. We also look at crude oil dynamics, natural gas in Europe, Swedish housing prices, weak outlook from US banks, the latest woes for Tesla, the Bank of Canada keeping CAD the weakest of G10 currencies, and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole S Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3VBFGpt -
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Today we note the US market continuing lower and closing near pivotal level, this time with no notable catalyst driving the selling, as US treasury yields actually dropped at the long end of the US yield curve, taking the yield curve inversion to a new cycle- and multi-decade extreme. It also looks like the easing of China's Covid policy is running out of steam as a factor. In commodities, we look at crude oil plunging to new lows despite alarming supply fundamentals, and wheat prices also on the defensive on unusually elevate export activity for the season. A look at today's Bank of Canada meeting, TSMC making even larger investments in the US, Apple postponing its EV plans and much more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole S Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3P6Apn2 -
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Today we are announcing our newly released 2023 Outrageous Predictions highlighting improbable, but not impossible, events that could really shake the markets. We discuss the reversal in S&P 500 futures to the big 4,000 level driven by a surprise beat on ISM Services Index yesterday suggesting that the US economy is reaccelerating again. The US yield move higher yesterday is also setting the stage for our attention on USDJPY in today's FX focus. On commodities our focus today is on the oil market given the demand uncertainties over China's reopening and supply worries over the Russian oil price cap. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole S. Hansen on commodities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3UvXqRy -
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Today we note that the market seems to be in see-no-evil, hear-no-evil mode, as hot earnings data from the US on Friday was unable to sustain a reaction in treasury yields, with financial conditions at their easiest in months. Still, key economic indicators point to an incoming recession in Europe even as the EURUSD manages to pull above 1.0500. We also preview tonight's RBA meeting, interesting earnings reports this week and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3XULGef -
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Today we look at a slight divergence in reaction patterns across markets after a weaker than expected core PCE inflation reading and ISM Manufacturing survey in the US pushed treasury yields and the US dollar lower, but failed to support further equity market upside. Elsewhere, we round up interesting earnings reports from yesterday, discuss silver technicals and the crude oil and natural gas outlook, today's November US jobs report and more. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today's slide deck: http://bit.ly/3OYS9Rp -
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Today we look at the market exploding higher in the wake of the Fed Chair Powell speech on inflation and the labor market yesterday, as we note that Powell failed to specifically push back much against the current easing of financial conditions and market expectations that Fed policy will be loosening already by late next year and especially in 2024. But we also caution that, while the US equity market rallied through key resistance yesterday, the market has a tendency to react strongly to event risks on the day without notable follow through in following sessions. On that note, we also have important incoming data that can test yesterday's reaction in the form of the October US PCE inflation indicator ahead of tomorrow's US jobs report. We also look at the commodities market reaction to Powell's speech, particularly precious metals and discuss copper in the context of the drumbeat of news pointing to China easing up on Covid policy, as well as crude oil. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3AVTRx9 -
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Today we note that Fed Chair Powell is set to speak later today and will likely try to push back against the recent strong easing of financial conditions and pricing of hefty Fed rate cuts that the market has priced to start as early as late 2023. If Powell can't impress the market, the incoming US data might have to do so, with the November ADP private payrolls up today and the PCE inflation data tomorrow. Elsewhere, we zoom in on the latest on crude oil and commodity performance this month, talk Apple, Crowdstrike and incoming earnings and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3urJOfP -
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Today we look at the market trying to recover its feet as it hopes that China will remain on the path toward reopening on fresh signs that it wants to avoid curbing activity excessively after recent civil unrest due to Covid restrictions. We also note, ahead of important incoming US data over the next couple of weeks and a Fed Chair Powell speech tomorrow, that the market is taking a very strong view on the path of Fed policy and the economy, assuming the Fed will succeed in its fight against inflation and will cut aggressively in 2024. Will Powell and/or the data challenge this pronounced view? We also look at electricity prices spiking in Europe, crude oil rebounding and wheat falling, stocks to watch and upcoming earnings reports and macro data. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today's slide deck: http://bit.ly/3AS3mgV -
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Today we look at how the market is absorbing the news of widespread protests in China against Covid policies there, from lower yields to lower crude oil prices. That combination offers strong support for the Japanese yen, while Apple risks a further haircut on the risk of widening production disruptions. It is worth noting that corn prices in China are diverging from prices elsewhere, also on Covid policy disruptions. Elsewhere, we consider the status of "de-globalization" (or is it re-globalization?), and look at incoming earnings and macro calendar events for the week ahead. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3GK19Yo -
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Today we look at the market still in complacent mode as it continues to celebrate easing US yields and the FOMC minutes Wednesday confirming the view that the Fed is set to slow its pace of tightening. We note that the US equity market is working into a critical resistance zone, just as the US dollar eyes important support, with the overriding question of when the market will begin to fret the impact of an oncoming recession rather than maintaining the one-dimensional focus on yields. Thoughts on Apple, commodity performance, platinum vs palladium, Natgas in Europe and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3XoM193 -
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Today we look at the market continuing to rally despite US Services PMI figures for November missed estimates suggesting the US economy continues to slow down. This means that equities right now interpret bad news as good news because it will force the Fed to pivot on the policy rate which will be net positive for equities. We also discuss expected PBOC easing, Riksbank's expected 75 basis point hike today, and the weakening USD helping financial conditions to ease globally. In commodities, our focus today is the energy market with Europe's gas market holding up well despite low volumes coming from Russia. Finally, we talk Deere earnings as the US agricultural equipment maker is delivering strong results as pricing power remain high on the back of high commodity prices on agricultural products. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today's slide deck: http://bit.ly/3EyxcrO -
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Today we look at the market bouncing back strongly yesterday as we await a data dump from the US today ahead of the long Thanksgiving weekend there. While the focus from the Fed is on how the FOMC delivers its "deceleration of tightening" message, it is worth noting that financial conditions are close to their easiest since the Fed began hiking in 75 basis point increments back in June. Will this receive any comments in the FOMC minutes release tonight? We also look at leading indicators pointing to an incoming recession, talk crude oil, copper and wheat, the RBNZ hiking 75 basis points overnight, stocks to watch and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today's slide deck: http://bit.ly/3EwDBDI -
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Today we look at the latest downbeat action in the equity market as we still await a more determined directional move after the multi-sigma upside explosion in the wake of the November 10 US CPI release. But it is interesting to note that the speculative nexus around crypto and Tesla are under intense pressure here and could prove a broader catalyst. We also look at the latest impact of rising Covid cases on commodities, the zany dump and pump yesterday in crude oil, the earnings and macro calendar ahead and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today's slide deck: http://bit.ly/3Vd3jnt -
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Today we look at downbeat sentiment on the latest concern that the reopening trade in China isn't going to happen any time soon with the first official deaths from Covid there in months reported. Elsewhere, we look at tight inverse correlation between risk sentiment and the US dollar and positioning in the US FX futures market, the holiday-shortened week in the US, gold, copper & crude oil, incoming earnings including Dell and Zoom Video, the macro calendar for this week (including the US Thanksgiving holiday) and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3GrdFvO -
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Today we look through key markets for the technical lay of the land, from the US and German equity markets to gold, US yields. We also note a very heavy crude oil market, with cycle support possibly coming into play in the days ahead. Elsewhere, we dive into some examples of the enormous rise in options trading and note the background risk this brings to the market, regardless of whether today's massive options expiry in the US on over $2 trillion in underlying assets proves a non-event. Today's pod features Saxo Technical Strategist Kim Cramer Larsson, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3URcx9q -
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Today we look at risk sentiment taking a breather after a particularly strong US October US Retail Sales report, although long US treasury yields fell on the day and took the yield curve inversion to its most negative in over forty years as markets continue to price a recession ahead. The key incoming data doesn't start rolling in for another couple of weeks, so we wonder if a possible shift in weather into proper winter mode could change the complacent stance in energy markets. Elsewhere, we wonder if the Budget Statement from UK Chancellor Hunt can continue to support sterling, look at the plunge in coffee prices, Nvidia and Siemens earnings, and more. Today's podfeatures Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today's slide deck: http://bit.ly/3txmyMH -
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Today we discuss US markets exploding higher yesterday after a soft PPI release, only to have an apparently Russian missile hitting Poland on the Ukrainian border roiling sentiment. The USD behavior yesterday was inverse to the swings in equities, pointing to more correlation with risk sentiment swings than US yields as we look ahead at today's US Retail Sales data. Crude oil, tightness in the commodity markets, the huge announcement from Apple on plans to purchase US-made chips and much more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today's slide deck: http://bit.ly/3Tzac1b -
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Today we note an indifferent session yesterday yielding to a strong session for sentiment overnight in Asia, perhaps in part from the friendly tone in the wake of the Biden-Xi summit yesterday, but also on stimulus hopes after weak Chinese data overnight. Elsewhere, we note the shift in attitude in the gold market as the USD remains very weak, with the latter trading at pivotal support areas in places. Wheat, crude oil, key semiconductor stocks to watch and upcoming earnings and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today's slide deck: http://bit.ly/3ttblgo -
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Today we continue to find reason to question the quality of this melt-up in equity markets after last Thursday's soft US CPI print, with the first prominent Fed official already out overnight with pushback against this drop in US yields. Still, that's not to say that the move can't extend in the short term, as the market is also hoping that a shift in China's Zero Covid policy is coming. Xi and Biden will meet today ahead of the G20 meeting. We also look at stocks to watch this week, an important week for earnings, the big moves in metals both precious and industrial, the US dollar and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3EksL4R -
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Yesterday's lower than estimated October US inflation figures (both headline and core) triggered a gigantic move across all markets with Nasdaq 100 futures rallying 7.5%, US 10-year yield dropping 30 basis points, USDJPY plunging 3.8%, and copper futures rallying 4.2% over two trading sessions. Adding to the positive sentiment is China's announcement this morning to ease Covid restrictions which will add to growth and inflation. According to some estimates the moves across markets yesterday led to the biggest single day easing of financial conditions which do not really fit with what the Fed wants to achieve. Investors must remind themselves that this inflation print is just one data point. In today's podcast we cover the inflation report and the reactions across many different markets. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3DUUvvE -
Peter's article: Investors should not wish for an average equity market. -
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Today we look at the sudden shift of the plot over the last 24 hours as the crypto contagion effects from the meltdown in that space have reached sufficient magnitude to impact sentiment across markets. We emphasize caution on the network effects among many clusters of assets held by the same hands holding crypto. Also, a look at where we are with the equity risk premium as investors better not hope for "normal" equity valuations. A glance at FX and the USD rising on liquidity concerns and brushing off the drop in US treasury yields, which brings into question the reaction function around today's October US CPI release, which may not have the impact previously anticipated, even on a surprise. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3EhIzW5 -
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Today we look at the US mid-term election results as they roll in, where the House looks set to flip Republican and the Senate may go down to a December 6th run-off in Georgia (as in 2020 and providing fodder for election denier conspiracy theories, etc...) but either way cementing the lame duck second half of Biden's presidency. Elsewhere, we look at the massive gold rally yesterday, in part on huge liquidity pressures in the crypto space that have prices tumbling there. Also, Tesla, Disney, stocks to watch, the USD on edge ahead of critical CPI release tomorrow and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3FT6wEp -
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Today we look at markets as we await US elections today and the US CPI data print on Thursday, all while everyone has very twitchy trading fingers on hopes that China is set to ease up on its Covid restrictions. We also discuss the simultaneous decline in bond market and equity market volatility and ask which asset class might be more attractive. Equity sentiment has improved sharply and is near six-month highs. In commodities, we zero in on nat-gas, gold, cocoa and coffee. Stocks to watch, including Tesla, upcoming earnings from Disney and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.
Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and Saxo Strategy Team here.
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Today we step back and look at last week's price action and especially after the FOMC rate decision. China is in focus over supposedly easing its Covid restrictions lifting copper and other industrial metals including emerging market equities. The USD also seems to be rolling over in the short-term easing financial conditions a bit and lifting risk sentiment. On the macro side, we discuss US consumer credit growth and what it means for the cycle and we highlighting the plunge in European economic activity over the past three months. On equities, we discuss rumoured Meta layoffs and Apple cutting its iPhone production target. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.
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Today we look at whether the US October jobs (and earnings!) report later today will extend or disrupt the powerful market reaction to Fed Chair Powell's hawkish FOMC press conference on Wednesday. We also look at the impact of a very dovish Bank of England meeting and the market thumbing its nose at the BoE's rate guidance next year. We also look at crude oil, gold, copper & cotton, stocks to watch including a huge positive beat from SocGen this morning. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.
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Today we look at the hawkish Fed Chair Powell press conference delivering a hammer-blow to sentiment as he managed to both pull off the idea that the Fed may indeed soon pivot to a slower pace of rate hikes as soon as December, but that any talk of a pause is "very premature". The result? Sentiment thrashed and the USD going vertical as the market takes Fed rate expectations and the terminal rate next year higher still. Incoming US data could further aggravate this move if the data remains even resilient, much less hotter than expected. We also talk through the reaction to the FOMC in gold, risks to sterling today if BoE fails to take the hawkish hint from Powell, stocks to watch, perspective on where we are with equity valuations and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.
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Today we discuss the shockingly strong September US JOLTS job openings survey out yesterday that took down risk sentiment as US yields and the US dollar jumped. It's the latest data point to suggest that the Fed needs to hawkishly keep all options on the table to buy at least a bit of time and two monthly data cycles until the December 14 FOMC meeting, where it can better make a decision on whether to downshift the size of further hikes and provide its next set of projections and policy forecasts. A focus on incoming data is likely, but how will the market react? Elsewhere, we look at key stocks to watch as earnings season rolls on, industrial and precious metals and crude oil, key FX stories and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.
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Today we look at another jump in sentiment overnight as the RBA maintains its slow pace of tightening, increasing the drumbeat of expectations that central banks are set to ease off the policy tightening gas. But with risk sentiment having roared off the lows and financial conditions rapidly easing in the US, will the Fed have any choice but to stay on message and push back against this market rally? Elsewhere, we look at oil and natural gas, uninspired gold, stocks to watch as earnings this quarter are underperforming expectations, the increasingly busy macro calendar ahead and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.
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Today, we scratch our heads a bit at Friday's wildly strong equity session, as the narrative supporting recent equity market strength - the anticipation of a dovish downshift in Fed policy guidance - was rapidly unwinding on the same day. An article at the weekend from "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journal suggests that the Fed is concerned the market is expecting too much of a policy climb-down this Wednesday. We also discuss wheat jumping on Russia moving against the Ukrainian grain deal, industrial metals struggling on weak China data and a weak Chinese currency, the busy earnings and macro calendar for the week ahead and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.
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Today we look at the novel development of a negative correlation in equities and bonds in recent days as rallying bonds are failing to support equity prices. Amazon was the latest to drop a bomb on sentiment yesterday with a very weak outlook after hours, even as a handful of other large companies reported solid earnings yesterday. Elsewhere, the ECB was the latest central bank to surprise on the dovish side with surprisingly cautious guidance. And USDJPY is up sharply again overnight despite lower US yields as the BoJ held the line and the Japanese government announced a new stimulus package. Elsewhere, we look at the latest on natural gas, coffee & cotton, upcoming earnings, the macro calendar for the week ahead and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.
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Today we look at another disappointing session for equities yesterday as a fresh dip in yields on the central bank pivot narrative, encouraged in part by a smaller than expected rate hike from the Bank of Canada, failed to sustain the market rally. Sentiment was further dashed after the close on a hideous result from Meta. Nonetheless it has been a stellar week for equities, despite marquee names reporting weak results, with heavy hitters Apple and Amazon reporting earnings today after the close. We also talk the dire outlook for diesel supply, a copper surge, USD suffering on the central bank pivot narrative and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.
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Today we look at a whiplash-inducing session for equities traders as a strong session yesterday on falling treasury yields and a weaker US dollar was marred in the aftermarket session by very weak earnings from Microsoft and Google-parent Alphabet. We break down those earnings reports, the next key companies to report, the status of the US dollar, crude oil and gold, and importantly: the narrative around the Biden administration, with a cooperative Fed, trying to engineer strong support for the equity market into the mid-term elections the week after next. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.
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Today we round out our view on the growing Chinese equity market discount as the market takes a dim view of prospects for returns there, given the policy focus on "common prosperity", not to mention geopolitical concerns. The weakening yuan is also a key focus in Asia. Elsewhere, today we have the earnings season getting into full swing today with Microsoft, Alphabet and many others reporting. Crude oil platinum, FX and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.
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Today we look at the zany session that developed on Friday across not just USDJPY but all markets in the wake of apparent heavy official intervention from Japan, although sources there are playing coy with their communication on the issue. We also discuss a vicious further slide in the Hang Seng index as investors vote no confidence in the signals emanating from the CCP party congress ahead of Xi's third term. A look at natural gas, copper, earnings season hitting fever pitch this week, the macro calendar for the week ahead and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.
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Today we note the remarkable continued rise in US treasury yields as the 10-year Treasury benchmark reached 4.25%, and the perhaps equally remarkable lack of significant impact on risk sentiment and the US dollar (outside the rush higher in USDJPY, of curse) from this latest surge in yields. We also look at the latest on natural gas, plummeting cotton prices and gold, FX themes, the busy calendar ahead for equity earnings and macro data and central bank meetings next week and more on today's pod, which features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at rising US treasury yields continuing to drive brutal headwinds for risk assets, even if the price action in equity markets was fairly sedate. Meanwhile, the currency situation is extremely spring-loaded around the 150.00 level in USDJPY, which traders are eyeing with concern on the risk of enormous volatility should we trade above that level - which US yields adding energy to upside pressure in the background. Today features Technical Strategist and chartist Kim Cramer Larsson, who takes us through the technical situation in US equities, the US 10-year treasury yield, USDJPY and more. John J. Hardy hosts.
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Today we look at another choppy US equity market session, with a fresh rally attempt in late trading on far better than expected Netflix results and guidance. That rally is unlikely to persist as long as US treasury yields continue to set new highs for the cycle, as they did briefly this morning. The very weak JPY and fresh CNH weakness are key topics in FX as we also look at the key earnings coming up on our radar, especially Tesla. This and much more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at another zany session on Wall Street yesterday, where we suspect that heavy derivatives related exposures are creating a lot of noise and little signal. Meanwhile, we are curious to see if we can pick up the signal from incoming company earnings, as we highlight the next important companies to report this week as earnings season hits full stride. Interesting FX stories, including the latest thoughts on sterling, and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.
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Today we look at Friday's whipsaw turnaround in equities after the bizarre Thursday rally, as the heart of earnings season lies dead ahead and the world's most traded stock, Tesla, has dumped to a new low for the year just ahead of its Wednesday earnings call. We also discuss Chinese leader Xi's speech over the weekend and whether Europe is set to declare China an economic rival, as well as watching for the ongoing fallout for semiconductor companies after the Biden administration moved to limit semiconductor tech transfer to China. The latest in FX, individual stocks to watch and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.
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Today we discuss the remarkable turnaround in equities yesterday after a hotter than expected core US CPI print for September pumped Fed rate expectations higher and triggered a sharp new slide in the market. The rally came after both the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 tested important support levels. As the headline suggests, we're far from sure that the market comeback offers much information value despite its impressive scale. Elsewhere, we look at the mixed status of USD pairs after yesterday's action, look at natural gas and copper, preview the day and week ahead on the earnings calendar and upcoming macro data points and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.
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As we await today's US September CPI and wonder whether a soft surprise can really move the needle, we highlight one of the starkest assessments of Europe's current predicament, which has crystallized since Russia invaded Ukraine earlier this year and is not just about stocking up on enough gas to survive the coming winter, but will require decades to address. A look at burgeoning interest in the nuclear energy, stocks to watch and upcoming earnings reports, crude oil, wheat and a 79-year low in the orange crop in the US and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.
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Today we talk about the continuing weakness in equities with the latest jolt coming from BoE Governor Bailey's comments that UK pension firms must get their house in order by Friday as the central bank is planning to step away from the market. We also cover today's oil market and the expected forecasts from IEA and EIA, the grains markets and finally gold that attempting to bounce back from its recent decline. We also cover stocks to watch which today are Intel, Chr Hanse, and LVMH. Finally, we cover today's earnings release from PepsiCo and the economic calendar with a focus on US PPI figures and FOMC Minutes later tonight. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole Hansen on commodities.
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Saxo Q4 2022 Quarterly Outlook: Winter is Coming -
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Today we look at equity markets back at the cycle lows just ahead of earnings season as treasury yields and a strong US dollar continue to pressure. We also discuss unrealistic earnings expectations for the coming batch of earnings reports, the large banks' massive unrealized losses on bond portfolios that will hamper buyback programs and dividend generosity, the ongoing dicey situation for UK gilts and sterling as sentiment and policymaker credibility continue to struggle, crude oil & gas, FX focus, TSMC's ugly day and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.
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Today we look at an ugly close to last week for equity markets after the market read a mostly uneventful September jobs report as negative for risk sentiment because the unemployment rate dropped back to the cycle low of 3.5%, driving treasury yields back toward the cycle highs and sending the US dollar higher again. Sentiment failed to improve in Asia as the week gets under way, with higher oil prices weighing and amplified by the stronger US dollar, while geopolitical jitters are more uncomfortable than ever. Precious metals, wheat, pondering peak tightness, the important event risks on the economic calendar and more are also on today's pod, which features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.
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Today we note a fresh weakening in sentiment as US treasury yields rose and the US dollar roared back higher, particularly against the smaller currencies. Also, a look at today's US jobs report and whether it can move the needle much, given the drumbeat of Fed rhetoric staying on the unified tightening-and-not-pivoting message, which will likely require many months of weakening inflation and a weakening jobs market to drive a shift. That means the surprise side is a very strong jobs and earnings report today. Discussion of AMD's shock revenue miss for Q3 reported after hours yesterday, the week ahead in earnings as earnings season get under way, the macro calendar points of note next week and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we note that the action in yesterday's session seemed to largely shred the central bank pivot narrative, not only because of a robust US ISM Services survey for September, but also as the reaction function across markets, with still resilient equities as yields rose sharply again didn't fit the narrative. We also look at whether bonds are offering solid value here, particularly at the shorter end of the yield curve, discuss Shell's profit warnings yesterday as an interesting harbinger and look at important variables to watch if the Fed is ever to begin pivoting (plot spoiler: not soon). Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Saxo Q4 2022 Quarterly Outlook: Winter is Coming
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Today we look at the short squeeze in equity markets finding surprising further strength yesterday and note that key resistance in US markets has already come into view as the "central bank pivot" narrative may struggle to find further sustenance when most of what we have seen may have just been a temporary improvement after a scary episode driven by UK gilt market contagion that eased. We also look at the status of FX markets, the crude oil reversal on the threats of an actual large production cut from OPEC+ today, Tesla and Twitter after Musk u-turned on his intent to challenge the deal, Tesco and semiconductor stocks and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at the market celebrating a weak September US ISM Manufacturing data point taking long US treasury yields lower, with noise from the commentariat suggesting a Fed pivot may be near possibly adding energy to the squeeze on equity market bears yesterday. At the same time we note further hawkish noise from key Fed officials, include Vice Chair Williams. Elsewhere, we look at financial conditions, unusual behaviour in sectors that normally would have performed better yesterday, possibly on Tesla's very bad day. Crude oil, a huge surge in silver, gold pushing on resistance and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we discuss the market sliding to new lows on Friday after a firm US PCE inflation indicator and despite the stabilization of global sovereign bond markets in the wake of the panicky situation in the UK gilt market last week that triggered an easing move from the Bank of England. We look at new sources of concern as financial conditions by some continue to deteriorate badly. A look at the USD, crude oil, natural gas and wheat, Tesla, Biogen's new Alzheimer drug candidate and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at the market stumbling once again just a day after recovering on the stabilization of global bond markets, in part on rising geopolitical unease linked to Russia, most easily spotted in CEE currencies. Sentiment also dipped on the world's largest company, Apple, seeing its shares trashed in yesterday's session on concerns for the company's growth. A startling outlook from Micron and other weak earnings results also weighed. Elsewhere, we note the interesting weakness in the US dollar as global yields were a pocket of relative calm as risk sentiment deteriorated, a shift from recent behavior. Crude oil, natural gas, metals, thoughts on whether the USD is turning here and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.
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Today we discuss the Bank of England's announcement of emergency QE yesterday, and how the impact of that on not just UK, but also, global yields impacted risk sentiment yesterday. Arguably, the UK is merely the weakest link and the BoE's actions might have to be repeated elsewhere - but on what time frame? We also look at the impact on gold, the latest on crude oil and the natural gas supply situation for Europe this winter even without any Russian gas deliveries, and much more. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.
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Today, a look at the US 10-year Treasury benchmark reaching the 4.0% milestone for the first time for this cycle after a remarkable surge in yields in recent weeks. It's worth considering the 1987 experience of bond markets flip-flopping in their correlation with equities and whether we could be set for a similar flip-flop if risk sentiment worsens further. Also, note that many speculative corners of the market were bid yesterday even as the action soured late and worsened still overnight as the US dollar continued surging - especially against the Chinese yuan overnight. Much more on today's pod, which is a solo flight with John J. Hardy hosting.
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Today we look at the equity market's precise test of the cycle lows yesterday and brightening sentiment overnight, despite the fresh surge in US treasury yields and the US dollar yesterday. An increasingly inverted VIX forward curve suggests that the market low may be close in time, if possibly not in price. We also look at signals from the US Consumer Confidence as the September reading is due today, break down broader commodity performance since commodities peaked, update the crude oil outlook after the recent price plunge, highlight upcoming event risks on the economic calendar and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at very weak global sentiment as the US dollar and US treasury yields continue to soar, taking US equities to the key cycle lows as we wonder what shape the capitulation will take - a quick test and reverse or a more profound move driven by poor liquidity? Elsewhere, we note sterling's historic drop and suggest that it is time for the Bank of England to step in with an emergency rate hike - or else. Crude oil, gold, stocks to watch today (including Apple with some concern around iPhone 14 orders) and more are on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Equities are sliding further yesterday and today as the market is rattled by sizeable upwards moves in the long end of the US yield curve with the US 10-year pushing beyond 3.7%. We also go through the series of central bank events yesterday from various rate decisions and most importantly the historic JPY intervention by the Bank of Japan. In addition we take a look at commodities and in particularly the European gas market which is set for its fourth straight weekly loss. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John Hardy on FX and hosting.
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The FOMC delivered a hawkish message to the market sending equities and bonds lower. Russia also announced a partial mobilization of its reservists increasing the stake in its war in Ukraine impacting commodities. We go through the details of yesterday's FOMC decision and details, and what knock-on effects they have caused throughout the various markets. We also discuss BOJ's decision to stay firm on its rate policy putting more pressure on JPY. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole Hansen on commodities.
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Today we look at markets trading nervously ahead of tonight's FOMC meeting, as we wonder how the Fed can maintain a hawkish tone relative even to the recent sharp rise in expectations. The new "dot plot" forecasts for the Fed funds rate by the end of this year will be key on that front on top of whether the Fed hikes 100 basis points or the more likely 75 basis points today. We also look at the immediate impact on sentiment in Europe and on wheat as Russia has announced a partial mobilization this morning . Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at the market putting on a show of resilience ahead of the FOMC meeting tomorrow, as we break down where to look for the Fed delivering a hawkish surprise (assuming they will be at pains to avoid a dovish one). The Riksbank hiked 100 basis points during the podcast recording. Elsewhere, we look at US housing as one of the better leading indicators for the equity market, the latest on crude oil, natural gas, and softs, and interesting FX stories aside from the obsessive focus on the USD. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at the weak equity market as traders nervously await a raft of central bank meetings this week as most are set to tighten rates further. In FX, we note the interesting reduction in euro shorts in the US currency futures positioning as the euro remains resilient, with most of the USD long position there expressed in GBPUSD and USDJPY. In commodities, we focus on longer term support for copper, while the equities focus this week is on names like Sea Limited, US homebuilders with the backdrop of US housing data, and Amazon. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on Commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Markets tried to continue treading water yesterday after the trauma on Tuesday, but risk sentiment tilted sharply lower from late yesterday after FedEx reported an ugly profit miss and pulled its forward guidance, citing a weakening economy. We also look at the latest surge in US yields and the US dollar, the Adobe acquisition pummeling its share price, the blast lower in gold, natural gas & much more. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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A special edition podcast today, as the Saxo Market Call team takes a step back from daily market developments to wish Saxo a very happy 30th birthday and to reflect on market developments of the last three decades and what coming years may bring to financial markets, from de-globalization, what drives the next gold rally, and some hopeful thoughts on Europe's way out of its current crisis. One thing is for sure, the last thirty years have shown us that the cycles are always changing. This special edition podcast features Peter Garnry, Ole Hansen on and John J. Hardy.
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Today we discuss the August US CPI shocker yesterday, as the core inflation reading on the month rose at twice the expected pace, taking even headline inflation into positive territory month-on-month despite the huge drop in energy prices. The market tanked and the USD soared as investors are forced to consider whether the FOMC meeting next week will bring a 100 basis point hike. Crude oil, metals, stocks to watch and a preview of Adobe and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we discuss the extension of momentum in equities as the market is clearly positioning itself for a weaker than expected US August inflation figure later today. The risk-on sentiment is seen across many markets including the USD which continues to weaken against the EUR which might have got some tailwinds lately from the war success in Ukraine. We also talk about Silver, but more importantly the ongoing European energy crisis that has eased a bit lately with lower energy prices across the board. Finally, we go through stocks to watch with a focus on Ocado's horrible revenue miss and Inditex's earnings tomorrow, ending with a quick rundown of today's macro calendar. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.
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Today we discuss market risk sentiment brightening in Europe in the wake of Ukrainian momentum on the battlefield since late last week, with EURUSD breaking well above important local resistance. The JPY is nearly as weak as the US dollar as yields have poked higher again. We also discuss developments in crude oil, wheat and rice after an Indian export ban, stocks to watch this week, including Oracle on the earnings report today and key semiconductor stocks as the US is likely to widen its curb on exports to China. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at a sharp sell-off in the US dollar inspired in the wake of the ECB meeting yesterday and especially after Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda comments on JPY volatility overnight. The USD decline has helped to boost sentiment further as the US S&P 500 retakes 4,000, but equity traders should keep a wary eye on treasury yields, which bounced back sharply yesterday on a strong US jobless claims number and the latest firm rhetoric from Chair Powell. The week ahead in earnings and macro and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we ponder whether yesterday's bounce in sentiment after technical support once again survived offers room for at least tactical optimism. Certainly, investor sentiment in the US is in the dumps, nearly matching record low levels according to at least one survey. Elsewhere, we breakdown the impact of EU proposals to cap power prices, particularly on alternative energy equities, the latest on crude oil and Putin boosting wheat prices with threats to revisit Ukraine export deal. In FX, the focus is on the JPY as the officialdom is getting religion on the need to do something soon and on the EUR as the ECB is likely set to hike 75 basis points today. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at markets trying to remain steady yesterday after a strong US August ISM Services survey took US treasury yields sharply higher again, but that rise in yields aggravated the decline in the Japanese yen, which accelerated lower overnight and hardly registered stern warnings from Japan's Ministry of Finance. We also discuss factors driving gold below $1700/ounce again and the commodities complex weighed down in general by the strong US dollar and economic outlook. Equity market focus on sluggish volatility relative to prior cycles and the ongoing US-China disengagement. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at fresh 24-year highs in USDJPY and across the board weakness in the Japanese yen as yields bob back higher and the market appears ready to challenge the Bank of Japan's belief that it can remain unmovable on policy. Tremendous volatility awaits if US long yields rise to new cycle highs. Elsewhere, we ponder risk to corporate margins from here, break down the latest on European natural gas and global crude oil prices in the wake of the OPEC+ output quota cut yesterday and much more. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at the whiplash reversal in sentiment on Friday after the market was rallying in the wake of the US jobs report, only to see sentiment sent into a tailspin on news that Russia will not resume gas flows through the Nord Stream I pipeline. We also look at sentiment position in US futures markets on commodities and FX and discuss the week ahead in macro events, with the RBA decision and guidance up tonight after a soft inflation data point out of Australia overnight. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.'
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Today we discuss the US market finding support at a very technical level yesterday ahead of today's US August jobs report. US Treasury yields continue to ratchet higher, particularly at the longer end of the yield curve, suggesting that resilient data is beginning to register on yields. We also discuss the US government blocking NVidia from exporting some chips, why gasoline prices are plunging while diesel prices remain resilient, the latest on Natural Gas, today's US August jobs report and where to look for surprises there. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we discuss the continuing declines in equities as US leading indicators are now fast approaching negative suggesting heightened risk of a recession in 6-9 months from now. Overnight in Asia weak PMI figures from South Korea and China confirmed our recent worries of the economic slowdown materialising broadly. We also discuss Europe's electricity market which seems to have been taken over by speculation and is not working properly. In FX we highlight the recent strength of the EUR and the dismal weakness of the GBP. Higher interest rates are also hurting silver and gold extending the negative momentum. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we discuss a weak US equity market session yesterday as sentiment bounced more than expected in August, at least according to the Conference Board US Consumer Confidence survey. We also look at a far better expansion in Job openings than expected and an interesting measure of "sticky CPI" that continues to rise in the US. In commodities, we discuss the drop in oil prices, and plans possibly afoot in Europe to cap power prices. The equities focus is on BYD, Chinese lithium names, and MongoDB. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at the lackluster session yesterday as risk sentiment found relief after the brief wipeout in the wake of the Fed Chair Powell speech on Friday. Helping to ease pressure on sentiment were the USD halting its rise and US yields easing back lower. In commodities, we look at the latest on the natural gas situation in Europe as Russia is set to shut down a key pipeline for purported maintenance. The corn and wheat outlook, pressure on discretionary spending and related consumer discretionary stocks due to soaring energy prices, upcoming earnings reports and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech was credited with triggering the ugly slide in equities and broader risk sentiment on Friday, but the modest reaction in US treasury yields suggests that the Fed was only moderately more hawkish than anticipated. Regardless, the market slide has already developed ugly momentum and could test next supports if US data this week continues to support higher yields and a stronger US dollar, an important financial condition in its own right. We also discuss the latest commodity price developments and weak precious metals on the stronger US dollar and remarkably persistent view that hefty disinflation is just around the corner. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we offer our latest musings on Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Fed conference today and whether Powell is ready to wax as hawkish as some of his colleagues on the Fed, with the bar somewhat high to impress still very easy financial conditions, perhaps. We also look at the latest on natural gas volatility risk, also due to vastly higher weighting in commodities funds, the contribution and importance of earnings as an inflation drive, FX themes and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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As we wait for the Fed Chair Powell speech at Jackson Hole and whether he can really bring anything new to the table, we look at the latest pressure on the already dire energy situation in Europe, the surprise indication from Japan of a strategic move in favor of nuclear, the latest earnings reports from Nvidia, Salesforce and Snowflake, and earnings reports ahead. In FX, we focus on the possible current account focus and possible repricing of AUDNZD significantly above its range of the last many years. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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A zany day for US data as the August flash S&P Global Services PMI suggests a deepening contraction is afoot in the US services sector after an already weak July reading that contrasted with strength in the ISM Services survey for July. What are we supposed to believe. Elsewhere, crude oil has cemented its comeback with an extension higher yesterday and coffee is at risk of a further rise on supply woes. In equities, we look at the latest in the Tesla/Twitter saga, earnings ahead including NVidia after the close today, and an interesting company in the EV batter supply chain in Europe. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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The downside momentum in the equity market picked up pace yesterday as US yields continue to rise and the US dollar rose well above parity versus the euro and GBPUSD posted new cycle lows as Europe's energy woes continue. Elsewhere, oil prices have perked up as Saudi joins the Saxo Market Call in noting the disparity in the very tight physical market while the futures market appears complacent. In equities, cyber-security company Palo Alto reported strong earnings as cyber-security is set to remain a growth industry for years. More earnings and equity themes on the radar, FX developments, grains and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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The US dollar wrecking ball is in full swing, taking even USDCNH to new highs for the cycle after another rate cut in China overnight. Longer US treasury yields are also pressuring financial conditions and risk sentiment as the 10-year benchmark yield threatens 3.00% again. The chief event risk for the week will be the Jackson Hole, Wyoming speech from Fed Chair Powell. We also discuss the latest natural gas developments in Europe, speculative positioning in the commodities markets, the long term perspective for tangible vs. intangible stock returns over the last couple of decades, upcoming earnings, & more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we note the strengthening headwinds against the melt-up in financial conditions as the US dollar continues to rise, having now broken higher against the Euro, sterling and yen, and as a new surge in US 10-year yields threatens. Elsewhere, US Natural Gas prices ease despite a weak storage build yesterday and wheat prices are retreating rapidly. In equities, focus on Applied Materials after their earning report, Canadian Solar and a look ahead at Deere. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we note a further softening in sentiment, in part on a pick up in yields, but that story has yet to really trigger as long US treasury yields remain rangebound, if teasing important levels. We note important supports for the crude oil outlook, the crack spread picture in the energy complex, the still very low valuation of energy stocks relative to the broader market, stocks and earnings on our radar, FX developments as we keep the USDCNH chart front and center as a potential aggravator of weakening risk sentiment and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at the US equity market rolling over a bit after hitting a key resistance point in the form of the S&P 500's 200-day moving average. We continue to note the resilient US dollar and the risk of USDCNH suddenly commanding the market's attention again if China moves to devalue its currency. We also zero in on weak Antipodean currencies as AUDUSD struggles and NZD can't get a boost from the RBNZ overnight. Crude oil, industrial metals, the latest on the dire power emergency in the EU, danger of meme stocks, earnings ahead and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at a confusing market backdrop as the US dollar rose across the board despite weak US data and US treasury yields easing lower again. While measures of risk sentiment and financial conditions look very strong here, we need to remember that the US dollar is a financial condition unto itself and one of the most import exchange rates, the USDCNH rate should be on every trader's radar. As well, the US S&P 500 index is pushing up against a major resistance level. Crude oil, copper, earnings reports ahead and more on today pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we note that there doesn't seem to be any obstacle to the market advancing higher at the moment, as US longer yields remain tame and financial conditions continue to ease on hopes that we are set for a soft landing. But the Fed is likely not happy with conditions easing so aggressively and will have its work cut out for it to push back against the market's advance if treasury yields won't do the work for them. We also preview this week's earnings and macro calendar, talk energy, agriculturals and a zany cotton market, the USD turning back higher in places and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we note that the big surge in yields at the long end of the US yield curve were likely the critical factor in capping and reversing the extension of the rally in equities yesterday. The US dollar found a bit of resilience on the development as well, if only half-hearted. Elsewhere, we zoom in on global natural gas supply concerns after the latest weekly US storage yesterday, discuss the grains outlook with a key report up late today and look ahead at the fairly busy macro calendar next week, while wondering how the Fed deals with re-establishing its hawkish credibility. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at the sharp correction in energy prices driving a softer than expected CPI print for the US in July, which saw sentiment responding by piling on to the recent rally and taking equities to new highs for the local cycle since June. Interestingly, the reaction to the CPI data has generated some tension as US treasury yields are trading sideways after erasing the knee-jerk drop in yields in the wake of yesterday's data. With financial conditions easing aggressively, the Fed faces quite a task if it wants to counter this development, with recent protests from individual Fed members failing to make an impression. Perhaps the Jackson Hole Fed forum at the end of this month is shaping up as a key event risk? Crude oil, the USD, metals, earnings and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we discuss the possible reactivity to today's US July CPI data point, especially if a hotter than expected core reading challenges the market's determined bet that inflation is set to roll over and normalize over the next couple of years. We also look at an equity market that is technically rolling over, a US dollar that needs to choose a direction, and compelling commodity stories and chart points in gold, crude oil and coffee. A semiconductor, EV, deglobalization, and Walt Disney focus on the equity coverage today. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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The equity market turned tail after another upside burst yesterday, creating the first compelling technical reversal in a while, with no readily identifiable catalyst, though we maintain concerns that complacency on how this cycle will shape up is excessive, particularly on geopolitical concerns and de-globalization drivers. Today we also look at NVidia's ugly revenue miss, Grains, gas and metals in commodities, and earnings reports on tap for today. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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The market continues to hang on to its view that the peak in Fed rates is imminent and that it will cut from around mid-next year despite strong US data and Fed members making clear that another big hike is coming in September. Can this week's CPI data change that? We also discuss commodities, with oil prices possibly a bit complacent given tight supply, while metals are showing signs of turning and gold is "walking a tightrope" on the macro outlook. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at market complacency continuing as the market seems to be pricing in a soft landing for the economy and eventual disinflation. We compare the course of the current US equity market drawdown from the top with the bear market of 2007-09, take a look at the market's reaction to the Bank of England's dire outlook for the economy in its meeting yesterday, discuss the impact of buybacks on the US equity market, preview today's US jobs report and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at the market reaction to surprisingly strong ISM Services survey for July, which was completely at odds with the very weak July S&P Global Services PMI. We also discuss the implications and lack of confidence in the meaning of a new record inversion of the yield curve yesterday, especially vis-a-vis the risk of complacent forward assumptions on inflation normalizing. In particular, the market appears totally unprepared for stagflationary outcomes. We also discuss Europe's rumbling energy crisis, key equity stories and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we note the surprisingly complacent shrug in the US equity market, particularly in the most speculative sectors, despite a significant pop in treasury yields as a trio of Fed officials made it clear that they are at odds with the market adjusting Fed policy expectations lower for next year. We also look at gold rolling over and what it will take to excite a new significant rally in the precious metal. We note China's reaction to House Speaker Pelosi's visit to Taiwan and round up key equity stories, including Caterpillar's results and guidance and look at the earnings and macro data calendar for the rest of the week. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we ask whether yesterday's market session may prove an important market pivot as US treasury yields eased further but were unable to boost equities. Defense stocks were top performers yesterday as tensions over Taiwan are set to mount as US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is set to visit Taiwan on Wednesday. FX moves, stocks to watch, including Caterpillar's earnings report today, risks in China's property sector and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at the US equity market wrapping up last week on a high note despite a bout volatility in the wake of a hotter than expected June US PCE inflation print. Financial conditions are in the driver's seat as the market continues to drive longer term US treasury yields lower and sees the Fed policy rate peaking for the cycle by early next year and easing eventually by perhaps mid-year, with tumbling credit spreads suggesting fears of a hard landing for the economy are easing. We're a bit less complacent. Upcoming earnings and the week ahead in macro data risks also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at a weak Q2 US GDP estimate pumping up the market due to the softening of financial conditions, with a further pump in late trading on Amazon and Apple earnings reports. Today we remind listeners that in the big cycles past that actually did see a recession, the market found its bottom as the Fed struggled to ease enough to catch up with a deteriorating economy, so in cycle terms, the market should be a bit careful what it hopes for here. John J. Hardy hosts.
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Today features Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen as we look at last night's FOMC meeting and Fed Chair Powell's unwillingness to push back strongly against market expectations for the path of Fed policy and really unwillingness to provide any guidance beyond data dependence. This sparked a strong risk-on rally as the market indulged in a complacent forecast for the path of inflation and the path for rates - something we would push back against strongly. Upcoming earnings, US-China relations and more on the pod. John J. Hardy hosts.
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Plenty to talk about today as earnings season rages on, the natural gas emergency seems to get more dire by the day, and with a possible geopolitical storm brewing over US House leader Pelosi's possible visit to Taiwan. But most of all, the market will zero in on today's FOMC meeting, where the market is leaning for the Fed policy rate to peak within about six months and roll over rather aggressively next year - a rather pointed view relative to the Fed's own forecasts. How does Powell guide today relative to this pointed market view? John J. Hardy hosts.
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Today we look at a very complacent market as Russia dangles the sword of Damocles over the Eurozone in the form of threats to further sever the supply of natural gas deliveries. Other risks this week include the blitz of earnings reports set to pick up sharply today as Microsoft and Alphabet will report after Walmart stunned the market after hours yesterday with a weak forecast that gutted that stock and other large retailer names. We also discuss the risk that the market is expecting too significant a downward shift in Fed rate guidance even if it does deliver the 75 basis points . Guiding us through the technical situation across a number of assets in today's pod is technical analysis strategist Kim Cramer Larsson, with John J. Hardy hosting.
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The podcast is finally back from holiday! Today we look at a huge week ahead for equities and rates as it is the busiest week for earnings reports of this season and as the Fed is set for its latest super-size hike even as the market pulls the peak Fed funds rate both forward and lower. We also look at rising recession concerns in both the US and Europe, the history of whether financial conditions are as important as the economic cycle in the market outlook, and much more. Today's pod hosted by John J. Hardy.
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Yesterday's session was quite a spectacle with commodities plunging 5% as the USD saw massive breakout against the EUR as punitive energy prices in Europe were igniting recession fears once again. With bond yields following commodities lower equities flows went into overdrive with commodity stocks naturally trading lower but the session evolved to a massive buy the worst performers this year and sell the best performers. In that world all the 'junk' pockets of equities rallied on the signal from commodities that a recession could be coming. July is typically a low liquidity month so moves can easily be amplified so remember this before putting too much weight on yesterday's moves. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole Hansen on commodities.
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Bond yields are climbing together with global equities on the back of an upside surprise to inflation in South Korea and better than expected PMI figures out of China bolstering growth/inflation trades. RBA hiked 0.5% point taking the the cash rate to 1.35% lifting the AUD as the central bank is still aiming to cool the economy and inflation. We also talk about the natural gas situation in Europe, which is getting worse, and SAS filing for Chapter 11 in New York this morning after failing to strike a new deal with 1,000 pilots. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole Hansen on commodities.
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Recession fears are accelerating in markets pushing US yields down and Fed Funds futures are now pricing in an aggressive rate hike cycle until year-end before the Fed flips to cutting rates in 2023. Equities are responding positively in the short-term to lower interest rates but if a recession happens equities will continue to struggle. We also take a look at commodity markets and the negative signals about the economy that is coming from energy and industrial metals markets. Finally, we are talking about Tesla's Q2 deliveries declining q/q for the first time in two years. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole Hansen on commodities.
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Today we look at commodities markets in the driver's seat as industrial metals prices resumed their nosedive, precious metals are trading near key levels, and crude oil sold off steeply, which in turn set the path lower for global yields. All of this is supportive of the Japanese yen, which spiked since late yesterday in the wake of a hot June Tokyo CPI release. We also review the equity market performance of the first half of 2022, note that financial conditions are tightening viciously, discuss Micron's very bad earnings report, the forward outlook for Q2 earnings and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at gathering gloom again overnight in equity markets and steep correction in oil markets yesterday, in part on US demand figures and possibly on rising concern of the impact of a new Covid wave. That concern is already washing over travel stocks. We also discuss the remarkable regime shift in volatility behavior in this cycle, credit strains flashing red, stocks to watch, the fresh aggravation of EU natural gas prices, FX themes and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at the US equity market ripping into reverse, in part on a massive slide in the expectations component of the US June Consumer Confidence survey, which has the market marking down Fed expectations slightly and finding safe havens in the US dollar and even treasuries, to a degree. We also look at crude oil not yet really fretting the demand destruction outlook, grains, stocks to watch for the rest of the week, FX themes and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we remind of the upcoming quarter-end, both as the quarterly transition proved pivotal as Q1 yielded to Q2 and the equity market rolled over aggressively from a strong rally to a renewed and sustained sell-off. A look at conflicting signals from key commodities markets including copper, cotton and crude oil, discussion of Nike's outlook and the upcoming General Mills earnings, perspectives on today's June Consumer Confidence release and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we discuss Friday's huge equity market rally and its likely proximate causes, especially the revision lower of a key US inflation expectations survey. Looking ahead, we consider the importance of the quarterly roll this week after a horrific quarter for equities as of last week's lows that may be driving rebalancing flows. As well, options exposures may be a key driver into quarter end. We also discuss the mounting impact of quantitative tightening in the weeks ahead, the outlook for the Q2 earnings season with a few interesting names reporting out-of-synch earnings this week, the US dollar and the macro calendar ahead as the ECB hosts a three day conference starting today. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look back at yesterday's historic session with big moves lower in the US and German 2-year yields responding to PMI figures for June indicating a more rapid decline in economic activity than estimated by economists. This is naturally lifting the recession probability and the timing of it causing safe-haven flows into bonds. The most interest rate sensitive parts of the equity market were the winners yesterday such as biotechnology and bubble stocks. Across currencies we observe weakness in the USD, AUD, and NOK reflecting lower economic activity, and the pressure is also coming of the JPY due to yesterday's rates move. On commodities we touch on the weakness in wheat and the tight physical market in oil. Other topics covered are the guidance cut from Zalando and container freight rates coming down. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole Hansen on commodities.
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Today we look at commodity markets continuing lower, with crude oil joining in the sell-off with sudden fury yesterday before bouncing. Elsewhere, the dire natural gas situation in Europe risks worsening further and is reviving the outlook for what few remaining coal related equities are left standing. Elsewhere, we talk recession risks, AUD under pressure on the commodity theme, equity earnings and macro calendar risks on the radar and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we note the whiplash-inducing turnaround in sentiment after yesterday's squeeze higher in US equities failed to spark any new positive tone in Asia, where an ugly slide in risk sentiment unfolded overnight, led by a steep sell-of in South Korean equities, as the country and its markets are at the intersection of many interesting themes. Elsewhere, an acceleration of the negative momentum in key commodities suggest that market is beginning to call a recession. Stocks to watch, the macro calendar, currencies and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we continue our discussion on where markets are headed over the summer: into a period of calm, driven by an easing of the rise in yields and hopes for cooling inflation as economic data softens, or are we set for more shocks ahead on a fresh rise in especially US yields and the associated pressure on global financial conditions and risk sentiment? We also look at the geopolitical risks for Tesla due to Elon Musk's non-Tesla activities, discuss falling commodity prices as copper trades at important support, fresh pressure on the JPY as BoJ is losing control of its balance sheet and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at the market hitting fresh lows late last week and debate whether some relief from falling bond yields and a sell-off in energy prices might bring some relief to this market, even if the sources of that relief are concerns that a recession is incoming. We also discuss inflationary pressures set to continue from the steep rise in US rents, look at crude oil and commodity performance broadly, the lay of the land in FX after a remarkable week, and where are are focusing on earnings and on the macro calendar this week. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we discuss the Bank of Japan maintaining its policy stance overnight as it continues to swim against the stream of global central bank tightening, leading to a sharp new JPY weakening move. This contrasts with the Swiss National Bank's large hike yesterday, which has driven a tremendous CHF rally, not least in USDCHF. Also, weak US data drives a drop in US treasury yields, where is the equity market focus: bond yields per se or on recession risks? Natural gas, gold, crude oil, metals, stocks to watch, upcoming earnings reports and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at what unfolded at last night's FOMC meeting, in which the Fed hiked the most since 1994 with the 75-basis-point increase to the policy rate, and how quickly the relief rally has faded this morning. An SNB rate hike of 50 basis points unfolded as we were recording the podcast - beating ECB to the punch. Is this a harbinger for the Bank of Japan capitulation on its policy, at least incrementally, tonight? We also look at the latest natural gas spike in Europe, crude oil selling off, factors holding back gold, the outlook for earnings and the US economy and more. Today's pod also features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today features Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen as we look at the tremendously important event risks set for the balance of this week, with a sudden emergency ECB meeting cropping up on today's schedule, the FOMC set for a likely super-size hike tonight, but is the market really prepared? Finally, and potentially most important for the risk of cross-market contagion, the Bank of Japan is set to meet on Friday and the market has thrown down the gauntlet and is already actively challenging the bank's yield-curve-control policy with heavy selling of JGB futures ahead of that meeting. All of this while cratering crypto markets are aggravating risk sentiment at least at the margin. Helmets on, as this could prove an historic week. Today's pod also features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at an ugly break to new lows for the cycle in equity markets as the market rushes to price in two 75 basis point moves from the Fed over the next two FOMC meetings, after Fed Chair Powell pushed back against larger hikes at the May FOMC meeting. We also look at the most tense policy situation across global markets, the Bank of Japan's yield-curve-control policy and offer perspectives on how to trade the situation. A look at Oracle's stellar results, VIX not yet showing any remarkable level of strain, latest on crude oil as Libya shuts in, gold and more on today' pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we break down what spooked the market on Friday: the massive surge in US yields after the US CPI came in hotter than expected and not least, as the long-term inflation expectations in the preliminary June University of Michigan sentiment survey jumped to new highs. The US yield curve is suddenly close to inverting again after Fed expectations were marked sharply higher for coming meetings. We also look at concerns that Chinese serial lockdowns will continue to dog global supply chains from here, the risks in the crypto space aggravated by the unfolding meltdown, and a rocky ride ahead this week with multiple major central bank meetings on tap, headed by the Wednesday FOMC and whether Powell and company will have to re-up the hawkish stance. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at the market tilting hard to the downside in the wake of the ECB meeting yesterday, after the meeting jolted EU interest rates higher, with a blowout in peripheral spreads spoiling the recent euro rally and sending the single currency tumbling by day's end. We also look at the market eyeing today's US CPI release with trepidation, as a strong core rate in particular could further spook markets on the need to price even more tightening from the Fed as hopes for inflation rolling over may be spoiled for now. Thoughts on grains, gold, Tesla in trouble and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we preview today's pivotal ECB meeting as rate expectations have rushed to new highs for the cycle this week in anticipation of the ECB's anticipated July rate lift-off, with the market divided on whether the ECB is ready to hike 50- or 25 basis points to initiate the tightening cycle at the July meeting. We also look at new highs for the cycle in crude oil yesterday, natural gas markets roiled by a fire at a US LNG facility, the ongoing JPY volatility (note CNHJPY at 20.00!), and important stocks to watch today, including Credit Suisse, Meta, Roku and DocuSign. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we discuss the market managing a comeback from a break of support yesterday as volatility drops to new local lows. Elsewhere, the Japanese yen moved aggressively lower despite a consolidation in global bond yields, an indication that speculative flows are taking over from the fundamental backdrop. We also break down the crude oil supply situation, developments in the uranium market, gaining exposure to rising inflation in rents via REITs and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at a fresh pop in global yields helping to drive a sentiment shift lower, although financial conditions and volatility have yet to show any real new unease. We also look at the Lawrence Summers Group arguing that rents are a key inflation driver and that inflation risks becoming unanchored, requiring a real "Volcker moment" for the Fed to get ahead of the curve. Elsewhere, high energy prices are an important market risk, while metals are stumbling after a big pull higher in copper last week. In FX, the JPY is spinning into the abyss on the rise in global yields while sterling is in focus after Boris Johnson survived a leadership vote. This and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at a market posting a strong session yesterday as it brushes aside the pressure from a fresh pop in commodity prices, especially crude oil, and the general rise in global bond yields. Market sentiment and the recently easing financial conditions and especially volatility face a key test today in the form of the latest US payrolls and earnings data and the May ISM Services survey. We also break down yesterday's OPEC+ meeting, which agreed on a production increase, but one that looks like political theater given that the cartel can't produce its current quotas. Copper popping higher, FX themes, earnings up next week and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at a surprisingly strong US ISM Manufacturing report for May helping to further boost the comeback in US treasury yields and capping a choppy equity market session in the US, with rather more important US data coming up tomorrow in the form of May payrolls and earnings and the ISM Services. Elsewhere, we look at the strong easing in financial conditions of the last couple of weeks, the important OPEC meeting today, key tech stocks that are getting their financial priorities in order, and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at yesterday's choppy market session, which was buoyed off the lows by a crushing blow to Brent crude prices intraday on a story that OPEC may be ready to exempt Russia's production and allow for production increases from Saudi Arabia and other members. But is there really any spare capacity that can come online? We also look at strong US data points yesterday supporting the rise in US treasury yields and whether we are in for another narrative shift across markets if yields are set to rise further just after consensus was developing that yields had reached a major top. The dump lower in wheat prices, perspective on MongoDB ahead of its earnings report, FX and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at the huge fresh surge in crude oil prices as Europe moves ahead with further restrictions on Russian oil imports. This is providing a headwind for risk sentiment, as is a jump in US yields after the US Fed's Waller talked up several 50 basis point hikes and Biden summoned Fed Chair Powell for a rare meeting in the Oval Office today. In equities, we look at rebound behaviors within historic bear markets as this is now the 15th worst drawdown in US equity market history since 1929. Wheat, industrial metals, the USD and FX themes, corporate credit and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at the squeeze in equity markets that extended aggressively into the close of last week, with this week off to a strong start, in part on hopes for a shift in China's covid policy. We also look at the dissonances in the narrative should China drive new global demand that reaggravates inflationary dynamics as some of the recent market rally has been on hopes that inflation fears and anticipated Fed tightening policy have peaked for the cycle. We also highlight the stress in the VC space, Hungary's Orban boxing above his weight class and risks to HUF, the dynamics in the crude market as Brent posted its second highest weekly close for the cycle last week, earnings ahead and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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This Special Edition podcast features Peter Garnry, Saxo's head of Quant and Equity Strategy who offers his perspective on the status of the current US equity market drawdown and what makes it unlike any other market drawdown, relative to the current economic backdrop, since at least the 1980's and even the early 1970's. That's because we have nearly reached classic bear market status (a -20% drop from the top) even with a US economy that has yet to roll over and a Fed that is still bent on tightening policy further. We also look at why this drawdown is likely to achieve "top"-five status among bear markets of the last century as inflation is likely to continue even on any softening growth, preventing the kind of QE and rate cut response that has driven the levering up and serial asset price bubbles since the mid-late 1990's. This episode was recorded on Wednesday, May 25, with John J. Hardy hosting.
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This Special Edition podcast features Kim Cramer Larsson, Saxo's head of Technical Analysis who takes us through the technical chart outlook for a wide array of assets including the S&P 500, DAX, Brent Crude, US 10-year treasury yields, EURUSD and other FX pairs, with an eye on key support and resistance levels, trend status and a flexible outlook on scenarios that could develop from here. This episode was recorded on Wednesday, May 25, with John J. Hardy hosting.
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Today we look at the normally high-beta bubble sectors continuing to weigh very heavily on the US equity market, even as the S&P 500 managed to pull solidly off the lows yesterday. We continue to highlight the "Bermuda triangle" of Tesla-ArkInvest-Crypto as an ongoing contagion risk. We also look at the market impact of a trio of weak US economic data points, the latest on crude oil and natural gas, FX moves and the status of the US dollar, upcoming earnings including Nvidia and Snowflake, and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at the case of whiplash administered to the US equity market yesterday after a positive session in the US was spoiled after hours by a weak forecast from social media company SNAP, which has contributed to a general mark-down of US futures into the European trading session today. Elsewhere, we look at whether recession risks are over-estimated for the near term as PMI's suggest economic activity remains in expansion even as confidence has cratered. A breakdown of grains, crude oil and natural gas, earnings stories ahead and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at the bounce in the US market on Friday from a key technical level near 3,800 in the S&P 500, just after the market had taken out recent cycle support levels. Meanwhile, lower US treasury yields and a squeeze on USD longs have helped drive a modest bounce in sentiment, though we remain very cautious. Also today: AI pipedreams, the latest on global food concerns, natural gas, FX, gold, earnings ahead this week, how to understand equity valuations, using Zoom Video Communications as an example and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at markets tip-toeing back away from the cycle lows, especially after a rate ease in China buoyed sentiment there. We also highlight a huge ongoing shift in portfolio allocations as a major Blackrock momentum fund (MTUM) is set for a massive rebalancing. And we put the current overall market drawdown in historic perspective, warning that investors need to zoom out to consider the 100-year timeframe rather than the merely the post-GFC one. Thoughts on industrial and precious metals, FX and the status of the US dollar rally as well as a preview of next week's earnings- and macro calendar also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we break down the worst session for US equities in over two years after another large US retailer, this time Target, saw its share price gutted after noting inflation driving rising margin pressures. As stocks are back at the precipice of key support, we take a look at next potential downside targets, the remarkable lack of a "normal" VIX forward curve given market stress at present, Tesla's Elon Musk becoming a loose cannon after Tesla kicked off the S&P 500's ESG index, look at JPY wrestling with the USD in FX, CAD concerns, crude oil, industrial metals and grains and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we break down the strong market session yesterday, with crypto-related names the star performer on a day that Bitcoin is still struggling to find separation from 30k, and with the market higher despite a fresh hawkish broadside from the Fed as Powell claimed the Fed won't hesitate to take the Fed Funds rate above neutral. Key short-term resistance is coming into view in US stocks and is already here in Europe. Elsewhere, we look at a worst in 35-year drop in Walmart on its profit forecast, discuss a misguided forecast on the housing market from Home Depot CEO after that company got a boost from its earnings report, look at evidence the from leading indicators showing that the US housing market is rolling over, the latest on crude oil and natural gas, earnings and macro data up today and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we note the interesting and remarkable divergences in market internals yesterday despite the nominally uneventful session, one that saw VIX volatility continuing its freefall back into the range. We highlight widening corporate bond spreads as a concern, run through the latest on grain prices and copper, talk Tesla's weak performance, stocks and earnings to watch today, FX themes and gold, and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Equity markets surged on Friday in what looks so far like a short squeeze as the market ran dry of fresh sellers, with the most speculative sectors backing up in spectacular fashion after Bitcoin and the Tether "stable coin" survived existential threats late last week. Today we look at fresh concerns on the outlook for global food prices as India has moved to ban wheat exports on weather related developments there, sending wheat limit up in Chicago. We also discuss the latest on Elon Musk's Twitter acquisition intentions, the weak ahead in earnings and macro event risks and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Fires are springing up everywhere and it feels like markets are under siege, but the volatility curve doesnt even look particularly alarming yet. We focus on the areas that could continue to keep markets on tilt, including the breaking of the largest "stable" coin Tether already in evidence today after Bitcoin melted through a huge chart level yesterday, the Hong Kong dollar peg under pressure, the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark triangle, etc. In FX, the focus is on the jolt higher in the JPY even more so than the ongoing USD strength, while commodity traders have it relatively easy on the volatility front, outside of coffee. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at a pause in the equity market slide a day after the worst day for global equities in nearly two years, identify important resistance levels for the S&P 500, talk commodities from copper and gold (where the last gasp support has been tested) to natural gas and crude oil. We also highlight relative strength in the major currencies, the muted EURUSD countertrend price action, and run down the earnings and macro calendar for today. We continue to highlight the systemic risk in the crypto space if Bitcoin punches below 30k. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at the worst single day for global equity markets since 2020 as the major US average broke below key support. Signs of poor liquidity abound, as the cryptocurrency space was in for a drubbing and one of the stable coins lost its grip on parity with the US dollar. We look at the US treasury yields, commodity developments from metals to energy and agriculture, key stocks to watch, especially Tesla as a bellwether, earnings head and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at the liquidity pressures keeping risk sentiment in the dumps as long US treasury yields and the US dollar continue to rise. US equities are perched at the lows for the cycle once again and we wonder where any sustained relief will come from until the Fed eventually has to exercise its put, but unable to do so given its primary focus on inflation. We also look at forward return potential now that global equities have come down from extremes, commodity positioning and sentiment on China's Covid lockdown impacts, earnings ahead and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at the vicious swing back to risk aversion as the squeeze after a less hawkish than expected FOMC meeting failed even to hold for 24 hours. We ask whether Tesla is the last holdout for retail bulls and where to look for a technical capitulation there. We also discuss the implications of Chinese leader Xi doubling down on China's "dynamic zero Covid" policy, including on commodities, look at signs of a weak consumer sector in Europe, break down the ugly slide in sterling after an extremely downbeat Bank of England and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at the first dovish surprise (relative to expectations) from the Powell Fed in many months and the sharp short squeeze it inspired as we wonder if this is a mere kneejerk that will fade within days or if market sentiment could stabilize for a bit longer. Certainly, financial conditions and rising energy prices are tightening the noose on the global economy despite Powell's pussyfooting around. We also take a look at crude oil and natural gas, copper, supply chain concerns in China, BMW's outlook, Shopify and other earnings reports on the radar, FX and the Bank of England today and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at the market trading on a nervous footing ahead of tonight's FOMC meeting as we all wonder what the meeting will deliver and how the market will react. In particular the size of the hike today and any guidance in the Q&A of the Powell press conference will be pivotal, as will be the reaction for both the long end and the short end of the US Treasury yield curve. We also break down the outlook for crude oil and copper, preview the Bank of England tomorrow and discuss the many moving parts in equities as companies report and grapple with supply chain, and in some cases, demand headwinds. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's special edition podcast, recorded May 2, features an interview with Saxo Chief Economist and CIO Steen Jakobsen as we look at the current lay of the land across markets, discussing the funk equity investors find themselves in as they await this week's FOMC meeting, how far the Fed is ready to take policy tightening, USD liquidity challenges and therefore challenges for global liquidity, the ongoing impact from the war in Ukraine, the hapless Bank of England and headwinds for the UK economy, deglobalization and limits of the physical world, China and more. John J. Hardy hosts.
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Today we look at a very ugly close to markets on Friday, as the rally attempt in the wake of Amazon's negative shocker late Thursday faltered and markets closed right at the downside tipping point ahead of this week and the much anticipated FOMC meeting up on Wednesday. We also look at why semiconductors have underperformed, signs of limitation in the physical world, including on food, positioning in commodities, the Aussie ahead of tonight's RBA meeting and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at whiplash for US equity traders as sentiment rallied strongly yesterday from depressed levels, only to have a ton of bricks dropped on the market by a very weak Amazon report, all while hopes for Chinese stimulus in the background drove strong sentiment in Asia. We also discuss Apple's supply chain concerns, the outlook for energy given the ongoing lack of investment, fresh spikes in fuel prices, financial conditions, a big week ahead for macro as the FOMC announcement is up next Wednesday, with today's US PCE inflation data for March one of the last big macro data points ahead of that meeting. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at a US equity market that posted a nervy session yesterday, with a surge after the close from less bad Meta news than feared. We still assess that the market is trading heavily, with additional danger from a surging US dollar as USDJPY surged to new 20-year highs on the Bank of Japan doubling down on its yield-curve-control policy and therefore deepening its loss of control over its balance sheet. We also look at more earnings ahead, including Apple and Amazon tonight, edible oil prices a concern for global food inflation, gold, FX themes and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at a US equity market that capitulated to the lows of the year, with sentiment worsening late on an earnings miss from Google parent Alphabet after the close. Elsewhere, the euro dropped to new five-year lows versus the US dollar this morning as Russia threatens to cut off gas supplies if importers refuse to pay in rubles, with supplies into Poland and Bulgaria disrupted today. We look at Chinese stimulus hopes after Xi comments overnight, more earnings in focus today, key FX themes and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at the market posting a bounce yesterday, but one that has yet to impress or significantly turn back the recent ugly acceleration in negative momentum. Today marks the start of a remarkable blitz in quarterly earnings reports, with key names like Microsoft, Alphabet and Visa reporting after the close, but many interesting other names that touch on key equity themes reporting before and during the US session later today. A look at crude oil, copper, grains, FX themes and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at the market sell-off extending, in part on fresh concerns of widening covid lockdowns in China, this time potentially in the capital Beijing, as commodity prices sell-off steeply and risk sentiment continued lower after Friday's very weak close. We also discuss China's agenda as it viciously weakens its currency, the outlook for grains as speculators are very one-sided in key markets, the outlook for earnings season and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we assess the sudden and alarming deterioration in risk sentiment as headlines attribute much of the move to fresh hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell, who called the US labor market "unsustainably hot" yesterday. We look at the technical capitulation in the Nasdaq 100 index, the failure of recent equity investment themes like commodities to provide some defense against the broad selling pressure yesterday, gold's relative quiet actually very impressive in this environment, crude oil, grains, FX themes and the week ahead for earnings and macro data. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we look at the euro trying to piece together a rally as the Le Pen-Macron debate ahead of the Sunday election run-off was seen as a victory for Macron. As well, we break down yet another impressive quarterly earnings and deliver performance from Tesla, which has shown an impressive ability to expand margins. Earnings previews, the latest on crude oil and product supply tightness, FX themes and more on today's pod, which features Christopher Dembik on macro and France, Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we assess a strong market comeback yesterday on little news, but certainly with a strong dip in crude oil prices providing a bit of a tailwind, as well, perhaps as an incredible lack of bullish sentiment according to at least one weekly US survey. We also discuss the prospects for Netflix after the company announced a drop in subscribers and shares were marked down heavily in after hours trading late yesterday. The sharp weakening move in CNH, whether CHF is set to move sharply in the wake of the French presidential run-off this Sunday, gold and crude oil, more earnings previews and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today we remind equity traders to keep in mind that nominal equity prices are one thing as the Nasdaq 100 index in the US, for example, manages to hang on near pivotal levels, while equity levels versus something like a basket of commodities paint a very different picture. We also look at the latest moves in the key commodities, preview the earnings and macro calendar for the week ahead and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's special edition podcast features Saxo Macro Strategist Christopher Dembik, who takes us through his latest thoughts on the upcoming second round of the French presidential election, the outlook for the French political landscape after the June legislative election and the ECB's challenges on the stagflationary Euro Zone economic outlook. A few thoughts on EM and other topics on this special edition pod, which is hosted by John J. Hardy.
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Today's podcast features Saxo CIO and Chief Economist Steen Jakobsen as we look at the dangers for equities given the backdrop of de-globalization and pressures from rising rates, discuss what the Fed may have to do if long treasury yields rise much further and what that could mean for the US dollar. We also discuss the outlook for Europe and the euro and much more. This pod hosted by John J. Hardy.
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Today's podcast looks at the latest weak session for global equity markets, the potential mindset on inflationary risks having possibly pivoted as shown in the US yield curve as the Fed may be irrevocably behind the curve for now. What this could mean for equities in terms of historic market parallels is explored - particularly the interesting way that German equities were valued during the varying phases of the early 1920's hyperinflation. Today's pod is a one-man show with John J. Hardy, head of FX Strategy.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3DYjcqo -
Today we run down the factors that are pressuring market sentiment, even as the first round of the French Presidential election failed to trigger any immediate further EU existential concerns as the results largely were in line with expectations. Still, the second round is not a done deal for Macron, as we discuss on today's pod in breaking down voter intentions for the second round, Le Pen's strong momentum and her appeal to younger voters and possibly to many undecided voters in the final instance. Today's pod features Macro Strategist Christopher Dembik and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/37yqHIM -
Today we discuss the French presidential election risk exploding onto the market's radar screens this week and the gap-risk for the euro and other assets over the weekend if the right populist Le Pen posts a strong showing in the first round. Any indication that Le Pen has rising odds of becoming the next French president is a proper Gray Rhino event that would act as a powerful check on the recent EU narrative of tighter EU integration post the Russian invasion of Ukraine and will have European investors holding their collective breath over the next two weeks until the second round vote. We also talk crude oil, natural gas at near-14-year highs in the US, grains, earnings season kicking off next week and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3DRPTpt -
Today we look at the continued pressure on risk sentiment after the FOMC minutes show the Fed discussing a rapid pace of quantitative tightening that is set to phase in after the May 4 FOMC meeting and, together with US treasury net issuance, will mean an annual run rate of $2-2.5 trillion in liquidity tightening for financial markets. Financial conditions have been responding accordingly, a dangerous development for equity markets if the tightening continues apace. The US dollar has jumped back higher over the last couple of sessions against riskier currencies and the oil market may be responding to that as well as to demand reductions from Chinese lockdowns and an incoming flood of supply from further reserve releases. Copper, Facebook and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3LBaW2m -
Today we look at the US equity market advance getting checked yesterday by a hawkish broadside from Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard, who invoked Paul Volcker in a speech on the unequal impacts of inflation on US households and the need to bring inflation down to the 2% area, as she guided for a May kick-off to quantitative tightening that will procced "considerably more rapidly" than in the 2017-19 tightening. (This on top of the market already pricing in a 50 basis point rate hike). US treasury yields, financial conditions, stock sectors in focus and more are also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3DDwhW9 -
Today we look at a frothy US equity market as traders react to Elon Musk's move to acquire a significant portion of Twitter, Cathie Wood and the absurd idea of $12 oil, the irony of easing market conditions when key financial conditions are rapidly tightening and are set to tighten further in the months ahead. We also look at falling container rates, the latest on the crude oil and wheat outlook, what is moving FX, including the Australian dollar, nominal equity market returns versus real returns and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3DzlAUx -
Today we look at equities staging a rebound on the back of Friday's strong economic data in the US and Russian retreat across the entire Northern front line in the war in Ukraine setting the war up for the "battle of Donbass" over the next month. The unfolding food and energy crisis is becoming tough for frontier economies and Sri Lanka is right now the canary in the coal mine with food shortages and a collapsing equity market. We also talk about the risks to Europe's energy markets as Russia continues to demand to be paid in RUB for oil and gas breaching contracts with European importers. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole Hansen on commodities.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/38cTvGN -
Today we look at the euro brushed back lower on dovish ECB talk and Putin's demands for sanctioning countries to "pay for gas in rubles". Also, while the outlook is dim for EU economic growth, at what point are relative European equity valuations simply too cheap to ignore? Elsewhere, the US tries to impress the oil market with a massive reserve release that may be too massive to physically get to market at the intended pace, we are concerned that not enough wheat will be planted this year. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3JYPpA4 -
Today we look at Fed credibility on the line in coming days with the Fed's preferred inflation measure, the PCE Deflator and Core levels for February is set for release later today and the March payrolls and earnings data is up tomorrow. The backdrop of financial conditions is a mixed bag, with market measures showing easing and a lack of Fed credibility while higher rates point to a significant tightening. Will the Fed respond to market conditions? We also look at EU yields, Russian default risks, US possibly set to release strategic reserves to push oil prices lower ahead of today's OPEC+ meeting and the most important planting report in years from the USDA later today. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3LvaJ0F -
Today we look at the US Nasdaq 100 index trading up against the "final" major resistance level as markets enthused yesterday on supposedly hopeful developments in Ukraine-Russia peace talks. We note that the commodity markets are the most important to watch for the reaction function, with no real change to the status quo after yesterday's volatility. Also, we note quarter-end effects possibly already in full swing here, key equity stories, including Apple eyeing all time highs on its hardware subscription plans and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3qJiZlF -
Today we look at animal spirits continuing their comeback, with signs of aggressive risk-taking in the most speculative corners of the market that many had written off until this latest surge. As rising yields are not yet pressuring real rates, the implications of rising nominal yields and quickly flattening yield curves are more muted than in previous cycles. Clearly, the Fed has its work cut out for if it wants to avoid a raging new speculative bubble, and it's a long wait until the May 4 FOMC meeting. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3qHZ5r5
Today we look at the latest acceleration higher in US treasury yields, with significant portions of the US yield curve now inverted, which often precedes an eventual recession, if with a highly variable lag. Also, as yields rise, the yen weakens due to the Bank of Japan's policy of capping bond yields, with the BoJ out overnight intervening to keep yields from rising, helping to trigger yet another leg lower in the nose-diving Japanese yen. We also look at commodity volatility, key equity stories and the week ahead in earnings and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3LccMqa -
Today we look at the US market poised at critical market resistance as the Powell Fed has yet to get ahead of the curve, constantly one step behind. If the market doesn't roll over here, the risk could rise of an escalation from the Fed to establish credibility. We imagine what that could look like while also mulling the current status of financial conditions, risks of portfolio rebalancing into quarter end after a brutal quarter for bonds and fresh signs of an extremely tight US labor market. Preview of earnings and macro calendar event risks for next week and more are also on the today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3LdAmTg -
Today we compare and contrast the 1994 rate hike cycle under Chair Greenspan, a highly pre-emptive cycle that managed a a soft landing, with the 2022 Fed cycle, which sees the Fed badly behind and needing to chase to catch up with the curve. We also look at next key levels for US treasury yields, noting a very strong 20-year treasury auction yesterday, look at select hydrogen names, NIO, a busy macro calendar today and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3wqnHIJ -
Today we look at whether the markets and the Fed are engaged in a "dangerous game" as the Fed continues to ratchet its rhetoric in the direction of ever more hawkishness and yet somehow remains behind the curve as the market continues to climb. Eventually, the Fed must catch up to recapture the credibility that continues to elude it. We drill down into specific equity stories like Adobe and NVidia, look at the historical market performance under varying financial conditions and assess the latest on crude oil and food commodities at risk from the war in Ukraine. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3CZhqVI -
Today we look at Fed Chair Powell once again upping the hawkish ante as he guided the market on the potential for multiple 50-basis-point rate hikes, and therewith lifting the entire US yield curve aggressively. We look at whether this Fed is set to tighten policy "until something breaks" and perhaps is surprised at how little is so far breaking despite the backdrop, with equities particularly resilient. We also look into key equity stories from Nike and Boeing to Chinese names and Adobe, the risk of Russian default and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3woFAHY -
Today we break down last week's remarkable comeback in global equity markets, although one that still leaves many prominent sectors down on the month-to-date. An extra focus on commodities today as the trauma suffered in the markets after the Russian invasion of Ukraine triggered not only tremendous volatility, but a significant reduction in open interest. The US dollar is also at a pivotal spot after last week's action. This and more in today's pod, which features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3CRCZat -
Today we wonder whether the witching of colossal options exposure in the US will provide a market pivot, we look at portions of the US yield curve inverting, dovish BoE guidance, a massive dovish blast from the Bank of Japan, FedEx demonstrating the difficult operating environment as margin pressures weigh, freight rates, crude oil, earnings and macro calendar next week and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/363MozS -
The Fed hiked 25 basis points as expected, but guided fairly hawkish, especially on its dot plot of forecasts for 2023 and in signaling that QT could be set to begin as soon as the May meeting, and at a pace that would be faster than the previous tightening in 2017-19. While equities somehow squeezed higher, we remain very cautious. We also look at falling wheat prices, the gold rebound attempt, FX reaction to the FOMC, key equity stories including FedEx earnings up today and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3JjMB07 -
Today we wax extremely cautious on the market, which has too aggressively climbed the wall of worry of late even if we were to pretend that the Russian invasion of Ukraine had not happened (many market have come full circle since that momentous and tragic event). That's because we also need to consider the implications of a much tighter Fed going forward, starting with tonight's FOMC meeting, margin pressures and other factors. We also look at worrying signs of market dysfunction, from the recent Nickel blow-up, to chaos in a VIX-tracking ETF and commodity traders struggling to raise enough capital. The three worry-warts on today's pod are Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3JcoXmj -
Today we look at "everything down" as bonds, stocks and commodities are all generally selling off, a remarkable backdrop as we barrel into tomorrow's FOMC meeting with yields near or at cycle highs along the entire US yield curve. We also discuss crude oil and related products amidst signs of demand destruction, equity sectors that have perhaps yet to absorb the full impact of the war in Ukraine, Volkswagen's results and outlook, Russia heading toward a debt default, currencies and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3CCzchi -
Today we are discussing China's lockdown of Shenzhen, Tencent's 10% plunge in Hong Kong trading, FOMC rate decision on Wednesday, JPY weakness being a commodity importer, Nickel contracts on LME still being closed today, gold's recent weakness despite the ongoing war in Ukraine, Volkswagen earnings and takeover rumours of Just Eat Takeaway Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3pSKokv -
Financial markets are settling down compared to the past two weeks' volatility but de-risking going into the weekend is very a theme that could dominate today's price action. Chinese technology stocks are today's biggest mover down 5% in Hong Kong as the SEC announced yesterday five Chinese ADRs (Chinese stock listings in the US) that could be delisted if they do not comply with the new US auditing rules for foreign companies; in total 270 Chinese companies are at risk of delisting. In today's podcast we also talk about ECB's hawkish surprise and the galloping US inflation impacting the US yield curve. In commodities we look at a hectic week including the blowup in nickel LME futures. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3hU8Iy7 -
Today we look at a robust bounce in risk sentiment on arguably rather dubious triggers yesterday, as oil prices plunged over 20 dollars at one point, the bottom fell out of gold, and the euro and European equities sharply extended their bounce from cycle lows earlier this week. We also preview today's ECB meeting, look at the potential impact on green transformation stocks and EU sovereign bonds from the new EU fiscal push, discuss rising yields and credit spreads, and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3tA3g9a -
Today we look at the ongoing chop-fest in equities, with Chinese equities roiled heavily overnight after the US closed at a new cycle low yesterday, but with Europe trying to put a brave face on the situation this morning. We assess exposures to Russian exports after the UK and US moved to ban Russian oil imports. We also discuss the financial risk as even natural hedgers are getting margin calls on their hedging of physical production, the latest sectors under pressure as jet fuel prices skyrocket, EU joint debt issuance plans boosting the euro and peripheral currencies, the earnings and macro calendar and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Mz3ea8 -
Today we look at the continuing wild ride for global markets as commodities price movements have become so extreme that things are beginning to break in places - especially in the Nickel market, where a short squeeze triggered a shutdown as we were recording the podcast. We also looked at the live market reaction while recording to news of a massive new joint EU debt issuance that drove a sharp sentiment shift this morning in Europe. A dive into energy themes, wheat, Russian default risks, US treasuries and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/35BYFvd -
Today we look at the impact of a further spike in energy prices as European natural gas trades at impossible levels and global crude oil prices jump on talks of a ban of Russian crude oil imports. In particular, we flag the risk of not only a real growth recession if energy prices stay here or head higher, but also a financial crisis. Food price rises are even more alarming on humanitarian concerns. How the situation is filtering into FX markets and the particularly slow-to-react US equity market also in focus. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3CbnKZL -
Today we look at the lay of the land as Russia's assault on Ukraine continues, especially the dire impact in the wheat market, which has lurched into an historic spike as the market goes limit up in Chicago overnight. We also look at the ongoing impact in energy markets, the curious lack of overall weak risk sentiment in equities despite strong signs of risk aversion in some of our indicators, today's US jobs report and macro data and earnings releases next week. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3KflenU -
Uncertainty is still extremely high with key commodity markets across coal, natural gas, oil and wheat going vertical hitting companies and households around the world. We have entered the phase where these commodity prices are causing real demand destruction and raising the probability of a recession. We also talk about the rebound in equities amid potential new peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, and Powell's speech that the US economy can absorb higher interest rates. Overnight, MSCI and Russell have decided to remove all Russian equities from their equity benchmark indices effective 9 March with the value of all Russian equities being put at zero on 7 March. On bonds we cover the recent volatility and pricing of rate hikes both in the US and Europe. Today's podcast features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole Hansen on commodities and Althea Spinozzi on fixed-income.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3IDrg1h -
Today we look at energy markets soaring as "self-sanctioning" is taking hold in much of the oil market as importers and refiners refuse to load Russian oil cargoes, and as other countries are rushing out of Russian exposure. In equities, we maintain a very cautious stance as markets need to be careful in trying to anticipate coming easing measures to address systemic concerns triggered by the destruction of Russian assets in the global banking system. Risks for the euro, where we are focusing in equities, caution on crypto and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/35IPhFW -
Today we look at markets trying to maintain a positive mood despite the terrible realities on the ground in Ukraine, the widening rush by companies to disassociate themselves with Russia, signs of systemic risk cropping up in the banking system, the commodity focus in FX, a warning for the crypto crowd, whether markets are justified in marking the Fed terminal rate lower as Fed Chair Powell set for two days of testimony before Congress tomorrow and Thursday in the wake of tonight's State of the Union address and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3M4NyeC -
After the sanctions on Friday underwhelmed, Western powers drew up a comprehensive list of sanctions at the weekend that look set to largely shut Russian access to the global financial system, though important details are not yet clear. Outside of an enormous drop in the Russian ruble, one that mobilized an enormous 1,150 bp rate hike to 20% by the Russian central bank, fallout across markets is quite muted. Today, we sort through the various market reactions and look at the implications of a historic speech by German Chancellor Scholz at the weekend, one that signals an entirely new stance on defense from Germany. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3LYXCWm -
Today we look at the massive market reversal yesterday as markets rallied hard off new lows, with the improved sentiment inspired at least in part by the US avoiding the most severe options in its new list of sanctions on Russia. Elsewhere, we look at the situation largely failing to impact Fed rhetoric or expectations, the intense focus on commodity markets, with stakes high for the global economy from soaring energy prices. We focus on single stock equity stories and wonder whether LNG stocks may get a boost if Europe seeks to diversify its energy supplies. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3sdmWQM -
Today's podcast looks at where the focus for markets lies in the wake of Russian forces attacking Ukraine overnight, a move Ukraine is calling a full-scale invasion. The next critical step will be the scale of Western sanctions and the degree to which Western powers can get on the same page as any real escalation in sanctions will exact a hefty toll on the economic outlook if actual flows of Russian exports of commodities are in the firing line. We discuss the impact and the risks across asset classes in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3p5rTZJ -
Today we look at the market trying to find its feet as the Western sanctions against Russia's latest moves in the disputed eastern Ukrainian regions were seen as relatively measured. At the same time, central bank tightening expectations are picking up quickly again and the US yield curve has re-flattened sharply. Elsewhere, we look at the risks of sustained market volatility, high EU energy and power prices as far as the eye can see, gold, agricultural commodities, equity earnings in focus and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3BDgmGe -
Today we discuss the fresh market deleveraging triggered by Russian President Putin's recognition of the self-proclaimed republics carved out of eastern Ukraine, a move that was preceded by belligerent rhetoric that suggests that we have severed any chance at a diplomatic approach to the situation from here. The next critical step will be the nature of the sanctions from the US, the EU and UK and the degree to which these feed any further disruption for Russia-exposed entities and for the oil price. Elsewhere, we look at rising credit spreads, key equity stories and the focus on Europe and particularly Germany with the current geopolitical backdrop and more. Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3JEoZ6j -
Today we look at the latest attempt by the market to piece together a rally on the hopes that a Biden-Putin summit is in the works, while wondering what could be discussed that hasn't already been in any new talks and generally bemoaning the scale of noise in the current situation over Ukraine relative to the signal. Elsewhere, earnings season marches on, but largely winds down this week. We maintain a very defensive stance here as we await further developments, with the Fed even able to surprise on the hawkish side again if it would like to as the market has unwound most of its expectations for a 50-basis point lift-off at the March FOMC meeting.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3H1Hi3z -
Today features Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen as we look at the latest Russia-Ukraine headlines shaking up markets and whether there is much signal in the overall noise. More importantly, we discuss the "talk of the town" yesterday after the very influential Zoltan Pozsar (currently of Credit Suisse, but a towering figure in global finance after he helped coach the Fed and the US treasury through its response to the global financial crisis) wrote a short piece exhorting the Fed to get creative and craft a "Volcker moment". Such a moment would be an effort at tightening financial conditions by rattling global asset markets rather than merely signaling a brutal series of rate hikes, which so far have tightened conditions very little and risk merely bringing forward a recession. John J. Hardy hosts.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3BskEAc -
Today we look at Fed expectations ratcheting lower still despite a very strong January US Retail Sales report and a non-dovish set of FOMC minutes, an indication that the market felt it had taken Fed expectations too high recently (also making it easier now for the Fed to surprise again on the hawkish side). We look at the need for the Fed to steepen the yield curve and the difficulty it may find in doing so, the impressive run back higher in gold and the next levels to focus on there, UK yields and the next steps from the Bank of England and more. Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, with John J. Hardy on FX and hosting.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/36kgkrl -
Today features Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen as we discuss the market's possible overreaction to signs of a de-escalation in the Russian position on Ukraine, how quickly rising yields will again dominate the narrative even if the Ukraine situation fades as a factor, and why the Fed will have to trigger a recession, i.e., "break something" before we can expect any new round of easing, as well as possible time frames for an incoming recession. A look at upcoming key earnings results and macro calendar highlights as well, with the FOMC minutes of the January meeting up late today. John J. Hardy hosts.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3gNULS0 -
Today, we look at the latest headlines from the Russia-Ukraine showdown improving the tone for risk sentiment as German Chancellor Scholz is in Moscow today for talks with Russian president Putin. We discuss the viciously flattening US and UK yield curves, the time window possibly closing soon for a Fed emergency rate hike, and where we are looking next for yields. We also note the deteriorating situation for credit, a vital component of financial conditions. The strength in gold, earnings and macro calendar and more in today's pod, which features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3rOGGdq -
Today, we look at the impact across markets after Friday saw the US warning of an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine, an intention Russia denies. German Chancellor Scholz is headed for Kyiv today and to Moscow tomorrow for talks. The headline risk has been ratcheted sharply higher with the latest escalation in tensions, and market participants will need to tread carefully. We also look at Russia's global weight in key commodities and look at the event risk calendars for the week ahead, as traders will also struggle to disentangle geopolitical tensions with concern on how rapidly policymakers intend to tighten financial conditions. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Bck6OG -
Today, we look at the hot US January CPI data hitting the markets yesterday, with an interesting attempt at a whiplash inducing bounce in sentiment just after the data release dealt an initial blow to sentiment as more Fed hikes were priced into the forward curve. Then markets turned south again when St. Louis Fed President and FOMC voter Stephen Bullard later administered a hawkish broadside with thoughts on an emergency Fed rate hike, a rapid path to 100 basis points of hikes and an imminent start to quantitative tightening. We also look at the impact on commodity markets from yesterday's developments and the Bank of Japan doubling down for now on its yield-curve-control policy and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3LoiCFS -
Today, we look at a the US equity market attempting a recovery into key resistance ahead of the macro data release of the week today in the form of the US January CPI. Elsewhere, bond yields also look pivotal after a very strong 10-year US treasury auction that saw strong foreign demand just after long US yields rose to new cycle highs this week. Plenty to focus on in equity markets after Disney and Uber boosted sentiment after the close and earnings season rolls on. In FX, focus on SEK and PLN on respective central bank developments and the rise in yields in EU countries saw strong demand at sovereign auctions. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3oAYu9z -
Today, we look at a market that seems to be holding its collective breath in a pivotal zone for chart technical as earnings continue to roll in and as yields have surged to new highs for the cycle in many countries, not least in Japan, where the Bank of Japan's yield cap at 0.25% may soon find itself challenged. A look at crude oil and softs, equity market focus, whether the 70's experience is relevant for today's equity market and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3uwk9nl
Today, we break down another shaky session for equities as yields continue to surge higher ahead of a series of important US treasury auctions today through Thursday and ahead of Thursday's US January CPI print. We also focus on EU peripheral spreads blowing wider as the market wonders who will replace the ECB's bid if the central bank stops expanding its balance sheet. A look at drivers for the crude oil and metals markets, earnings overview for today and more also on today's pod, which features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3J6iZ5Z -
Equities were pulled out of potentially a selloff into the weekend on Friday by a 14% gain in Amazon shares and this morning equities are trading slightly higher. However, risks are still everywhere with tightening financial conditions, Ukraine-Russia tensions, high energy prices, high inflation and an elevated VIX curve suggesting the market expects above average volatility over the coming months. We also talk about the oil markets which are digesting potential oil shock from Ukraine-Russia conflict, tight inventories in the US which have eased a bit, and talks between the US and Iran. We also cover our weekly COT report which highlights changes in speculative futures positions across a wide range of commodity markets. Finally, we go through the earnings and macro calendar, with especially earnings this week being interesting with many large cyclical stocks reporting. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3AWMxA4 -
Today we discuss the whipsaw action in equity markets as the US first closed weakly after Facebook parent Meta Platforms suffered the worst single day market cap loss for a US company in history, only to see the market enthusing, rather oddly, over Amazon and Snap results after hours. We also break down the Bank of England and ECB meetings, where Lagarde opened the floodgates by admitting that the ECB would review its policy on inflation at coming meetings. Also, the market looks ready to ignore a very ugly US January nonfarm payrolls change print today, choosing instead to focus on earnings. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3AWONap -
The US S&P 500 closed the session yesterday right on a key retracement level before crumbling after hours on a weak guidance from Facebook parent Meta Platforms and Spotify, adding the recent pattern of extreme sensitivity to surprises in earnings report. On that note, we're holding our breath for the Amazon earnings call today. We also discuss the BoE and ECB meetings today, which almost have to surprise after the surge in expectations for more hawkish guidance, particularly for the ECB. Also - crude oil is looking a bit tired technically even as the supply situation remains tight. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3GmK3MD -
The equity market recovery continued apace yesterday and overnight, buoyed by Alphabet's 20 to 1 stock split and a jump in its share price after the parent company of Google reported strong results for its ads business. Today we breakdown the many equities to focus on as the earnings blitz continues, the key technical levels for the equity market as this recovery has taken the price action close to pivotal resistance levels. We also discuss crude oil ahead of another OPEC+ meeting and the latest US inventory data, a very tight coffee market, understanding total return in the commodity market and in currencies, the degree to which Aussie has correlated with risk sentiment rather than listening to the RBA. This and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3rhAme1 -
Today, we look at the market squeezing higher into month-end yesterday, with the formerly most beaten down sectors performing the best, with a single day gain of nearly 10% for our "Bubble Stocks" equity theme basket. We remain on a cautious footing. Elsewhere, a look at a hot German CPI number helping drive significant moves in EU sovereign yields ahead of an important ECB meeting on Thursday, US yield curve flattening, the market curiously brushing off a very dovish RBA, stocks to watch today as earnings season barrels along and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Ge1JtQ -
Today, we look at market sentiment attempting a recovery into the close last week as high correlation across markets remains a concern. This week, China is off-line, but we have peak earnings season for major companies reporting. We also have a bevy of central banks meeting this week, beginning with Australia's RBA tonight, where Governor Lowe and company are set for a tardy end to the RBA's balance sheet expansion. A look at crude oil, biofuels driving soybean prices higher and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3II0y7t -
Today we look at a still nervy US equity market, as speculative giant Tesla stumbled badly and is now poised at key support and the market posted a new cash session low close even if the prior intraday low was not tested. Another blowout earnings report from Apple after the close tried to ride to the rescue, meanwhile. Elsewhere, metals are sucking wind and US natural gas shenanigans caught commodity traders' attention, while the strong US dollar dominated the FX market as Fed expectations remain pinned near the cycle highs after this week's FOMC meeting. This and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3r4rLv1 -
Today we pick apart yesterday's FOMC meeting, in which the statement was boring and inline with existing expectations, but the Fed Chair Powell press conference provided a couple of comments that unsettled the market on the potential for the Fed to hike far more than was previously expected. US yields rose across the yield curve, the USD spiked higher and risk sentiment rolled over badly after the powerful short squeeze that had set in ahead of the FOMC meeting. Commodities generally maintained their recent strength as US oil inventories were bullish. Focus in equities, besides on the Fed, was also on incoming reports from market giant Tesla yesterday and Apple today among other marquee names. This and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/35prb2J -
Today, we look at expectations for the Fed ahead of today's FOMC meeting and whether hopes for a somewhat less hawkish forward guidance are misplaced. We also continue to note the extreme divergences within the equity market, ask whether the mild widening in corporate credit spreads is an encouraging sign or merely a lagging indicator, note new aggravated rises in grain prices, in part on Ukraine concerns, and cover key equity earnings stories from yesterday and for the day ahead, as Tesla is set to report later today. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3KJWbug -
Yesterday was a historic trading session in US technology stocks with Nasdaq 100 futures down 5% before rebounding 5.8% ending the entire session higher. Volatility measured by the VIX exploded higher reaching as much as almost 39 suggesting increased nervousness. We are still not near full capitulation so traders should stay on their toes. In today's podcast we also cover commodities which have had a more rough period due to the risk-off across markets, but Ole zooms in on two markets, gold and cotton, which are doing relatively well given the circumstances. Finally, we highlight stocks to watch including Ericsson that has delivered impressive Q4 figures and then we talk about earnings releases expected today with the main focus on Microsoft reporting Q4 earnings tonight after the market close. It is also today that the Saxo Strats release their Quarterly Outlook so watch out for the publication which covers the energy crisis and how traders and investors navigate it. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3tUoSiq -
The VIX Index and the VIX forward curve is not displaying full capitulation yet in US equities so we cannot reject the possibility that equities could slide further, but in early European trading US equities are indeed attempting another rebound. The USDJPY has been sliding in recent weeks with risk-off in equities so if equities can stage a rebound watch out for this FX pair. The Ukraine-Russia tensions are also still lurking beneath the surface and could negatively impact European energy markets if if we see further escalation. On commodities we also talk about gold's resilience despite rising real yields and we also show how almost all of the important commodities remain in backwardation highlighting tight spot supplies. Finally, we go through which stocks to watch today and the most important earnings this week which will be the ultimate test. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3KpkMoh -
Yesterday was a violent session with Nasdaq 100 futures up more than 2% before plunging below 15,000 into the close taking US technology stocks into correction territory. Several of the pandemic darlings have been hit hard recently with yesterday two most notable names being Peloton and Netflix. We also talk about the disappointing TIPS auction in the US and how negative real yields are still supportive of high yield credit. Althea also talks about the ECB Minutes and Bunds turning below 0% again. Despite equities being under pressure commodities are having a strong week with metals such as silver and platinum leading the gains. Finally, we talk about the energy crisis in Europe where traders are relieved over more LNG supplies to Northern European but turning wary over the situation between Ukraine and Russia. Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3tGLnae -
Today we talk about Nasdaq 100 futures is touching its 200-day moving average in a critical moment for US technology stocks while the rest of the equity market is feeling the heat from inflationary pressures. Hang Seng futures are up 3.5% on the second rate cut by PBOC this year as Chinese policymakers are trying to smooth the ripples from the slowdown in the real estate sector. Gold is breaking up higher despite higher USD real yields and industrials metals are rallying on extremely tight supply and PBOC's rate cut. We also discuss December's PPI report from Germany showing a blistering change of 24% y/y driven by spikes in heating oil, electricity price, energy and mining. We round off the podcast with a discussion of stocks to watch today, earnings releases expected today with focus on Netflix, and the today's macro calendar. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3ryJA4q -
Nasdaq 100 futures are continuing their slide today as the US 10-year yield is flirting with the 1.9% level. If the Nasdaq 100 breaks below the 200-day moving average sitting at 14,986 then we could see an extended selloff, so this is a key inflection point to watch today. Althea is talking about US monetary policy, today's US 20-year Treasury auction, and the Bund yield break higher above 0%. Ole is talking about gold and oil prices which are where the energy is in commodity markets, and Peter is commenting on Microsoft's acquisition of Activision Blizzard and earnings from ASML. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/328l5lW -
Higher Brent crude above $87/brl and the US 10-year yield firmly pushing above the 1.8% level is taking the energy level up a notch with Nasdaq 100 futures down 2% Market participants are clearly changing their guidance on inflation and a continuing to rotate out of high duration assets and into shorter term duration assets and inflation hedges such as energy assets. In today's podcast Althea go through the different tightening cycle this time compared to the previous one and Ole talks about oil markets, and gold's reaction to higher interest rates. Peter talks about the Q4 earnings season which really heats up next week but with three important earnings this week from ASML (tomorrow), Netflix (Thursday), and Schlumberger (Friday) Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3ftJ8ij -
Today's session is expected to be quiet with a holiday closing cash markets in the US. This week will likely become a tug of war between earnings releases and higher interest rates as equities try to digest the fast changing landscape for equities. Real yields have moved sharply higher recently suggesting the market is believing that the Fed can cool down demand and inflationary pressures by raising interest rates. For gold bulls it should be encouraging to watch how gold prices are holding up despite rising US real yields. In commodities things are not cooling down with oil prices surging higher with Brent crude at the cusp of breaking above the previous high from October last year. We also discuss copper which looked strong last week but gave up some of the gains again due to weakening macro data from China. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3ri64Xh -
Today, we look at a weak session in the equity market yesterday, but one that continues to show violent cross-currents as performance levels for various themes continue to diverge significantly and where there may be a considerable contrast in where institutional investors are focusing their buying versus a possibly more straightforward buy-the-dip mentality from retail traders. We also look at the US treasury auctions this week as the yield curve remains stubbornly flattish, note the ongoing JPY resurgence, the USD failing to serve as a safe haven yesterday and what we are looking for on the increasingly busy earnings calendar. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3FnDlFA -
Today, we look at the market shrugging off the latest multi-decade high in US CPI as US treasury yields actually dipped on the day and the US dollar broke down broadly as the drumbeat of hawkish Fed appearances and data have failed to sustain new momentum in policy tightening expectations or long US treasury yields. Elsewhere, we look at a new pop in metal prices, particularly copper, discuss key equity stories, including chip giant TSMC and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3zONkTb -
Today, we discussed yesterday's session completing at least a near term mean reversion in market internals after remarkable performance divergence between bubble stocks and the wider market. Elsewhere, we look at US yields peeling away from new highs after Fed Chair Powell's nomination hearing and as we await a possible 7-handle on the US headline December CPI later today for the first time since 1982, discuss credit spreads in high yield corporates and whether there are any signs of distress yet, new post-omicron highs in crude oil, inflation pressures from food and wages and more. Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3fbHEsX -
Today, we look at the extension of the US equity market sell-off suddenly finding support intraday yesterday and managing to close around unchanged, with Bitcoin surviving a simultaneous challenge of the key 40,000 area. US long treasury yields also topped out yesterday with auctions in coming days critical for measuring demand after the recent spike in yields. A look at FX developments, key equity stories and earnings and macro event risks on on tap and more in today's pod, which features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3JW7bEM -
Today, we look at December US jobs report indicating that the US is more or less at full employment as payrolls growth is anemic, but the unemployment rate continues to drop aggressively and average hourly earnings to rise steeply. The Fed will continue to feel that it is behind the curve and may have to step up more dramatically than the market is currently pricing, with yields now rising all along the yield curve. Elsewhere, we look at crude oil, commodity index rebalancing, softs, struggling vaccine maker Moderna as omicron may point toward a new phase of the pandemic, geopolitical concerns on Ukraine weighing heavily this week, upcoming earnings calendar and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/31xIlJN -
Today we look at the energy from the reaction to the hawkish FOMC minutes fading as the market looks forward to next steps for US treasury yields after the key 10-year benchmark has reached the post pandemic-outbreak high around 1.75%. Also today, a preview of earnings season kicking off next week, real yields, EU sovereign yields as the German bunds trade near zero percent, and preview the important US December jobs (and average hourly earnings!) report up later today. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3eT0rsQ -
Today we look at how the market absorbed yet another hawkish surprise from the Fed, as the FOMC minutes surprised with a robust discussion of whether an actual reduction of the Fed balance sheet is a policy option worth pursuing in addition to rate hikes. In equities, the focus of the discussion is on the heavy impact on interest-rate sensitive names and whether some of the selling there is getting overdone for the names with the strongest fundamental growth ahead of earning season. A look at gold, other metals and the strength in the USD and not least, the JPY after the FOMC minutes and more also in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3qNOmdV -
Today, we look at the extreme new divergences that have already developed in the US equity market over just the first two trading session of 2022, and focus attention on Ford's new 20-year share price high on enthusiasm for the prospects of its EV version of the F-150 truck as we ponder the overvaluation of the entire EV space relative and where the inevitable casualties will be found in the years ahead. In commodities, the focus is all on energy at the moment while the FX focus is dominated by the weak JPY and developments in safe haven yields. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3ETxdon
Today, we look at yesterday's surge in US long-term treasury yields and wonder whether this is narrative based and linked to worries clearing on the longer term impact of the omicron virus variant or whether it is a mechanical development due to huge shifts in funds related to the calendar roll into the New Year. Elsewhere, we look at new highs in USDJPY on the US yield spike, key equity stories, upcoming earnings, gold and copper, soybeans, and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3sSjDz2 -
Today, we look ahead to a year that is very unlikely to shape up like 2021 as pressing question on inflation and real growth await this market. We delve into interesting equities for the week ahead, especially Tesla and a few Chinese names, look at the road ahead for oil prices and natural gas and breakdown the macro calendar for the week ahead, with Italian politics a key focus in January and the reaction to US data this week setting the tone as long US treasury yields remain stubbornly rangebound. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3eATigF -
Today, a heartfelt thanks to our growing tribe of listeners, who have well over doubled in number this year. In today's final podcast of 2021, we look at the remarkable performance of the US equity market over the last year and the last three years, noting that the this has been the strongest three-year performance in over twenty years and what that says about the likely forward return profile. Also, a look at crude oil, gold, the year in soft commodities, FX perspectives, the macro calendar for the first week of 2022 and more. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3HigFYx -
Today we look at the light positioning in crude oilmarkets ahead of the New Year, offering plenty of space for big moves next year, particularly if demand picks up. Also, a look at one measure of US dollar positioning that suggests bulls may have a hard time finding more fuel for an extension higher. We also cover the latest on the natural gas situation in Europe, positioning in other commodity markets, other FX perspectives and more. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3HiNuoe -
Today we put the year of 2021 in equities in perspective and question whether 2022 will bring a very different return profile. As well, we try to pick apart what the US yield curve is telling us about inflation or other areas of concern entirely, specifically that the Fed can only go so far before triggering the next panic that then requires that they ease. Specific equity stories, USDJPY seasonality, energy developments and more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3puEoil -
Today features special guest, Saxo Chief Economist and CIO Steen Jakobsen as we look at the market setup in the dying days of 2021 and the outlook for 2022, especially for the US market and fiscal dominance versus Fed irrelevance. We also ponder the risks for Europe, where the energy situation adds an extra layer of concern to a raft of other issues, even if recent sessions have brought a remarkable reversal in the EU power and natural gas prices. John J. Hardy hosts.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3pjqIXq -
Equities are slightly off following yesterday's strong move higher driven by good news on the Omicron variant, Biden's confident remarks on making a deal with US Senator Joe Manchin, and then topped up overnight in China with Hang Seng equities pushing higher on strong remarks on stimulus towards the real estate sector from a local government; the comments were later pulled back. The positive sentiment is feeding into higher US interest rates, a stronger USD against most currencies and especially the JPY, with gold moving lower. We also talk about today's macro releases and two acquisition news impacting Maersk, LF Logistics, Aker BP and Lundin Energy. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on "everything".
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Egc3jK -
Markets are rebounding on yesterday's positive Moderna news that its vaccine provides good protection against the Omicron variant and the US Senator Joe Manchin said he might vote for Biden's Build Back Better deal in a revised version. However, with liquidity dropping towards the holiday period we put little weight on these moves. India had one of its most successful IPO today ending a string of recently bad ones providing some fresh positive sentiment to this equity market. The oil market is also responding well to the Moderna news rebounding together with equities and the long-term demand outlook looks solid. We also talk coffee prices, and earnings from Nike and Micron. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole Hansen on commodities.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3pcqTU9 -
It feels almost like December 2018 with the persistent weakness in the market, but this time market participants are not screaming policy mistake by the FOMC. Instead markets are reacting to the Covid-19 Omicron variant which is increasingly adding new restrictions to countries lowering economic activity in the services sector and adding to pressures on already fragile global supply chains. In today's podcast we talk about weakness in equities, China's housing market crisis and the PBOC's 5 bps rate cut, Europe's ongoing energy crisis as cold weather is expected, the Turkish Lira in free fall, and finally a bit of single stocks stories impacting green transformation stocks. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole Hansen on commodities.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3e2SAIG -
Today we look at the whiplash-inducing reversal of the post-FOMC equity market rally as safe haven seeking was in evidence everywhere, with the entire US yield curve dropping and gold and the Japanese yen rising. A special focus on some technical concerns for the Nasdaq 100 index after the sell-off. Elsewhere, we look at the smart recovery in gold, the latest on the natural gas situation in Europe, a batch of equity stories, especially stocks linked to the European car industry, and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3E1vT2j -
Today we pick apart the market reaction to the FOMC meeting, which approximately met market expectations, at least according to the what the market is expecting the Fed to deliver in the way of an accelerated asset purchase taper and three rate hikes next year. The equity market took the event risk as an excuse to buy-the-fact as there was no net new hawkish surprise and long yields remained tame. We also look at the reactions in commodities and FX to the FOMC meeting, preview FedEx earnings and look at a very busy central bank meeting calendar for the day ahead and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/33xuBiY -
Today we look at the reaction to yesterday's release of the very hot US November producer price inflation data and the modest reaction in Fed rate expectations as we ponder what tonight's FOMC meeting will deliver and how the market will react, given what is already priced in. Also, a look at the latest spike in EU natural gas prices and key equity stories for the days ahead, including earnings from software giant Adobe. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3pXCvcO -
Today we preview tomorrow's FOMC meeting and scratch our heads a bit at what the market is telling us about what it thinks is coming from the Fed, both in terms of the guidance that will be provided tomorrow, but also how it is reading the longer term Fed policy trajectory. A look at key equity stories and much more also on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3m0eQHv -
Today we look an interesting close to last week, as the market pulled back Fed rate hike expectations slightly lower despite the November CPI report showing the hottest CPI data in decades. The US market saw a record high close on Friday, but we look at the interesting lack of breadth on a number of time frames. We also discuss key equity stories, including signs of oilfield investment picking up, look at metals and commodity positioning and briefly preview the busy week ahead on the central bank meeting front, with the FOMC meeting on Wednesday taking center stage. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3oFFqHI -
Today features special guest, Saxo Chief Economist and CIO Steen Jakobsen, who takes us through his perspective on what the Fed may do from here based on two scenarios for inflation, one "benign" and one less so, as we await today's US November CPI data point ahead of a very pivotal FOMC meeting next week. We also look at the latest on the natural gas situation in Europe and wheat ahead of a very expensive spring for planters looking at soaring fertilizer prices. Also, we preview the busy economic calendar for the week ahead, which includes an ECB meeting and several other Central Bank meetings of note. Today's pod also features Ole Hansen on commodities, with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3DEj2CP -
Today we look at the US treasury yields in the wake of yesterday's action as omicron variant concerns fade further, especially whether the longer end of the yield curve is set to set considerably higher as the Fed moves into a hiking regime next year, as has been the case in cycles past. Thoughts on credit, key equity stories, whether EURUSD can make a turn here, the remarkable dispersion in equity market and energy market forecasts for next year, Europe's ongoing energy crunch and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3rPUq7U -
Today we look at the incredibly strong rebound in the major equity indices, in part on the lifting of omicron concerns, but practically speaking probably also on the lifting of downside hedges or gamma risk. A rundown of key FX developments, including the very strong Chinese renminbi, a look at where crude oil will focus next as only a portion of the huge recent slide has been erased, still positive roll curve for commodities, US political developments of note and much more. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3rGd4iq -
Today we look at the strong rebound in risk sentiment as omicron covid uncertainty may be fading and as China appears to be firming up a commitment to supporting the economy. A look at junk debt also enjoying a rebound, at key equity stories for today, whether the USD may roll over soon after its recent bout of strength, the crude oil and coffee markets and much more. Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Exq1ig
Link to Outrageous Predictions 2022 webinar: https://bit.ly/3IjF2Xr (scroll down to find replay)
Today we look at the confusing combination of US long yields plunging to new cycle lows even as the US registers strong economic data as it did on Friday. Some of the strength in treasuries was down to a fresh bout of weak risk sentiment, which was particularly interesting on Friday as normally interest rate sensitive names failed to find support from the yield drop. Elsewhere, we look at the shifts in speculative positioning in commodities, the latest developments in energy, stocks to watch this week, AUDUSD at a major pivot ahead of the RBA meeting tonight and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic.
Slide deck for today's episode: https://bit.ly/3Eo0TdC -
Equities were looking to skid further yesterday but mustered a comeback erasing the prior day's decline, but underneath the rebound overall in equities we observe outright destruction across many key bubble stock names. Evidence of this destruction was well on display in DocuSign plunging 30% in extended trading on a minor miss on revenue for Q4. We also discuss the market's pricing on interest rate hikes next year before cuts showing that the market has difficulties believing in higher interest rates over a longer period. On commodities we highlight the recent rebound in oil despite OPEC+ intentions to lift production and the recent slump in natural gas prices in the US on mild weather. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Saxo's 2022 Outrageous Predictions: Here comes a revolution!
Slide deck for today's episode: https://bit.ly/3rsrp1W -
Today we discuss a very ugly day for US equities yesterday, with the mega-caps finally joining in with a weak session as focus remains on the Fed's hawkish pivot and the ongoing virus unease. We also dive into contagion risk for credit if leverage loan prices continue to come under pressure, whether OPEC+ can dig the oil market out of its current rut, key equities to focus on for the day ahead after concerning news from Apple on the demand side and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/2ZF3n8o -
The market administered yet another round of whiplash as very hawkish comments from Powell cement the Fed's direction shift that was just getting focus before derailed late last week by the omicron covid variant derailment, leaving market participants chopped to bits. We try to sort through the implications, noting weakening credit conditions as a key focus, as well as value versus growth themes, individual equity stories, and the next important macro data points, which will gain increasing attention if the omicron impact eventually fades.Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3IhpraT -
The market action yesterday and overnight underlined the extreme headline risk in this market, as well as the poor liquidity conditions. Yesterday, the market attempted a heroic recovery on hopes for the Fed put backstopping the market, before we get covid vaccine maker Moderna's CEO out roiling the waters with loud concerns on the new omicron variant's potential to evade the current vaccines. Elsewhere, we look at signals from the US Treasury and EU sovereign bond markets, note that financial conditions are in a very different place relative to any other outbreak of volatility this year, especially in terms of widening credit spreads, look at key equity stories and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3FQDYrG -
Today we look at markets trying to stabilize after Friday's traumatic reaction, amidst poor liquidity, to the news of the new omicron covid variant outbreak. Most of all, we are reluctant to draw any conclusions or endorse the market's attempt to do so as it will take some time to determine the scale of the danger from the new variant, not least from strict travel bans that are already taking shape. We also preview the week ahead in earnings and macro event risks in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3lcLo0y -
Today we look at the news of the new Covid variant hitting global markets like a ton of bricks at almost the worst imaginable time, as liquidity is poor over the ongoing US Thanksgiving holiday, with most US market participants away from their desks on holiday and the most liquid global market in the US only open for half a session today. We underline that we have no idea what will happen in the ongoing development of this virus news, but that traders should tread with extreme care, given that near term volatility risks are extreme on the unfortunate timing, particularly giving the sudden shift in focus that this news brings relative to recent themes and current market positioning. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.
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This special episode features a conversation on all things trading with Brent Donnelly, a veteran trader and writer, now with Spectramarkets.com. Brent has more than 25 years of experience trading currencies and other assets with major international investment banks and hedge funds. Brent is a gifted writer who pens daily market thoughts on FX and macro with spectramarkets.com, peppered with insightful comments on market movements and ideas for what may happen next. He has also authored two books, The Art of Currency Trading and Alpha Trader, which offer traders of all levels a roadmap for what successful trading looks like, never shying from describing the hard work that is necessary on all levels, from trader mindset, behavior and money management, to the fundamental and technical expertise.
- Link to Brent's daily macro letter at spectramarkets.com.
- Find Brent's two books at your favorite bookseller: The Art of Currency Trading (2019) and Alpha Trader: the Mindset, Methodology and Mathematics of Professional Trading (2021)
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3xnws4L -
Yesterday's reversal in the US 10-year yield due to less bad than feared PCE core inflation for October caused a relief rally in equities and especially technology and bubble stocks. However, as we note today a big change has happened inside the Fed with a less focus going forward on employment and more on inflation to protect US households. The market is adjusting its expectations for rate hikes next year to almost three suggesting 2022 will be a very different year from the previous two years. On commodities we discuss the upcoming OPEC+ reaction to the recent Biden administration release of strategic oil reserves to ease the pain from higher oil prices. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, and Peter Garnry hosting and on equities.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/32om7Kl -
Today we try to quantify and illustrate the equity markets most sensitive to rises in long yields, i.e., duration sensitivity, noting particularly chunky declines in the most duration sensitive markets yesterday. As well, a look at the "buy the fact" reaction to the US release of strategic oil reserves, key FX stories, including the RBNZ proving less hawkish than the market hoped and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3FHnphQ -
Today we look at the market reaction to US President Biden giving Fed Chair Powell teh nod for a second term, while promoting Lael Brainard to Vice Chair. The most interesting reactions were in the US yield curve as a faster pace of Fed tightening was priced in for next year, but also in the US equity market, which experienced a climax reversal back lower after an initial surge higher in the wake of the Powell nomination news. Elsewhere, oil set for an interesting test as Biden may be set to announce a release . And in sovereign bond markets, besides the US treasury focus after the news yesterday, focus is also on Europe as we may be set for a German government coalition announcement as Italian risks also weigh on President Mattarella's imminent resignation. Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/2Z9fkTx -
Today we look at the lay of the equity market coming into this week, where we continue to note considerable market divergences, recapping the points from Friday, including the narrow market rally. We also look at whether credit spreads for high yield corporates are finally starting to deserve some attention. Focus in commodities on oil and especially gold this week as it is do-or-die time for bullish newcomers after the recent rally spike. The week ahead is a short one for US-based traders, with the Fed Chair nomination issue hanging over the market and the two key event risks for the week up on Wednesday, just before the long holiday weekend there. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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This special edition of the Saxo Market Call podcast is a long-form chat with Steen Jakobsen, Saxo's Chief Economist and CIO, who takes us through what makes him uneasy about the market today and where it is trading and current narratives relative to what likely awaits in terms of inflation and real growth outcomes down the road. The Fed's policy mistake, FX themes, dysfunction in Europe and more are addressed in the conversation with Steen and host John J. Hardy.
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Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3qQI8M5 -
Today we run through some stark divergences as the US equity market posts new highs, noting weak breadth and other indicators that in the past have suggested higher risk of an episode of consolidation. We also look at interesting signs in the T-bill auctions that the market remains wary of the debt ceiling situation that hasn't yet gone away. Also, a look at crude oil, gold and rising food prices, the macro calendar for the week ahead and more. Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/30zbljw -
Today we issue another general note of caution on the status of global equity markets, which look stretched even if there are rational (real yields) and especially seasonal narratives in support of recent developments. Elsewhere, we dive into Amazon's broadside against Visa, whether that company and Mastercard could see eventual pressure on margins, other key equity stories and earnings, the dire potential supply situation for European natural gas, the very weak euro and a weak German 30-year bond auction, US treasuries and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Duesb5 -
Today we look at a fresh major spike in natural gas prices in Europe driving new concerns for the European economy and for the euro itself, which has lost significant further altitude. We also ponder where to look if EU outlook concerns turn more existential rather than merely a question of "relative outlook". The latest on crude oil, spiking coffee prices, US retail sales data and how to interpret it and much more on today's pod, which features Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3owExjp -
Today we look at the importance of yields for next steps in the equity market, covering the US, UK and German sovereign yields, but also highlight the pain trade of the US dollar extending higher from here, looking at the interesting divergence in our global risk indicator relative to the elevated equity market, the output gap in the US being fully closed, Fed policy mistake, stocks and earnings in the spotlight today and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3kDi03f -
Today we look at how the US equity market finished on a strong note despite the hot US CPI print last week bringing Fed rate hike expectations forward and the latest US sentiment survey suggesting that consumer sentiment is in the dumps. We also look at the earnings highlights for the week ahead, particularly for important Chinese names, the latest on energy prices, especially the natural gas situation in Europe and the escalating geopolitical situation on the EU's borders and in Ukraine and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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In this special edition of the Saxo Market Call podcast, Peter Garnry sits down with Conor MacNeil which is the equity research analyst behind the increasingly popular investment newsletter Investment Talk. It is a conversation about Conor's background and how he accidentally stumbled into writing a newsletter on Substack, and how he is part of a growing group of independent research analysts on Substack providing high quality insights about investing in financial markets. We also talk about his approach to equity investing and what he looks for before investing in a company for the long-term. Finally, we asked Conor to highlight two companies that he thinks have potential to outperform the market over the coming years. We hope you will enjoy the conversation as much as we did.
You can find Conor MacNeil on Substack with his Investment Talk newsletter and on Twitter under the handle @InvestmentTalkk
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3c2kNhS -
Today we look at the tense situation in markets after the hot US October CPI print on October and then yesterday's awkward bank holiday-warped session, as well as whether Fed expectations are really driving the US dollar, not to mention China maintaining its currency near recent lows in USDCNH. Elsewhere, we look at the very tense situation in Europe as natural gas prices refuse to continue lower and the potential for geopolitical mishaps on the Polish/Belarus border and/or in Ukraine. Also: the still busy earnings calendar for the week ahead, which features some of the highest profile Chinese tech names, as well as the macro calendar, where we highlight a potentially interesting speech from Fed Vice Chair Clarida late next week. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/308prbs -
Today we look at yesterday's painfully hot US CPI inflation readings and the reactions across markets, as traders rushed to price in a faster pace of Fed lift-off next year, generally sold US Treasuries and risky assets and snapped up the US dollar. But the most important move yesterday was in gold, which ripped through major resistance and was up across the board as real yields dropped further on the US inflation data - making the most interesting macro statement of the moment. Also, we look at key equity stories for the day ahead, run down the US, EU and UK sovereign yields and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3qnvZhr -
Today we break down yesterday's interesting US equity market session, as $140 billion leaked out of the Tesla market cap in a single day, helping drag the broader market lower. Plenty of single stock stories to focus on today, including the IPO today of (future) EV-maker Rivian, and as earnings season marches on. Elsewhere, a look at whether markets are making too much of a fuss about the possibility that US President Biden may nominate Lael Brainard to head the Fed, why crude oil rallied yesterday and gold poking at important resistance. Today's pod Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3bWtXN0 -
Today we look at US market internals and the sector performances that stand out as the broader market has lost some momentum over the last couple of days. We also discuss the conundrum and lack of coherence across markets as inflation concerns rage while nominal yields at the long end of the curve drop, zero in on US treasuries, German Bunds and the JPY and other FX themes. In equities, a focus on PayPal selling off after the close, NIO, and Coinbase, which is set to report today with Bitcoin conveniently at new highs. Today's pod Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/31KJ5v7 -
The nominally strong US jobs report on Friday was unable to sustain the US dollar rally, but more curiously, saw long treasuries rallying sharply and driving yields at the long end of the US yield curve sharply lower - a development that demands the most attention this week for follow on action. We also look at another rally attempt in gold, latest energy market developments, the upcoming Rivian IPO pricing, other EV-linked equities, and earnings and macro risks for the week ahead. Today's pod Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3wjYbCN -
Today we look at the post-FOMC meeting melt-up extending aggressively and the degree to which options may be in control of this market as volumes have exploded in recent years and Tesla and Amazon options are a staggering percentage of that development, to such a degree that the options tail may be wagging the market dog. We also look into why oil prices have dipped again after the OPEC+ meeting yesterday, talk copper, the Bank of England's terrible communication fail, EURUSD drivers, earnings results, today's US October payrolls and earnings numbers and more. Today's pod Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3mLmO8t -
Today we look at the market getting what it wanted from the FOMC, as the Fed delivered the expected pace of QE purchase tapering, even if it reserved the right to shift the pace at future meetings if warranted. Our belief is that it will prove more than warranted and we take you through the rationale in today's podcast. Also a look at the drivers of the collapse in oil prices yesterday, concerns on rising food prices and credit spreads in China, thoughts on fixed income after the FOMC and on the Bank of England meeting later today, earnings highlights and more. Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities, Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3q1VgxF -
Today we look at the long term implications of Republicans winning the Virginia governor race in the US, perspectives on the US bond market after the under-appreciated trauma globally in the short end of yield curves nearly everywhere and whether a bit more calm post-FOMC tonight in rate expectations might open up for more volatility at the long end - which could prove more contagious across asset classes than the big shift in central bank expectations. We also look at the latest on global natural gas market, earnings and more. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities, Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3GERNel -
Today we look at the market turning a bit more cautious ahead of an important FOMC meeting tomorrow, we note signs of a crowded trade as traders short at least one long-dated US treasury proxy, the TLT. Also, a look at OPEC supply laggards driving upside oil price risks, industrial metals on the defensive, a look at much more dovish RBA than the market was pricing overnight, EU peripheral yield spread widening and more. Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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In this special edition of the Saxo Market Call podcast, we have a long form conversation with Thomas Jam Pedersen, co-founder of Copenhagen Atomics, a start-up company working to bring a new generation of nuclear energy to market using thorium molten salt reactors, or TSMRs. In the conversation, we look at the amazing potential for this new source of primary energy for driving the global economy, what makes it promising relative to legacy nuclear power and alternative energy sources, as well as how it can eventually replace the fossil fuels that drive climate change concerns and are still the primary foundation of our current global energy system. We also look at some of the engineering and regulatory challenges of TSMRs, as well as the kinds of companies that are likely to emerge as the best investment prospects in this space in the years to come.
Slide deck: https://bit.ly/3jVqzX7 -
Copenhagen Atomics website.
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3BC0diC -
Today we look at what unfolded last week as the markets seemed forced to price central bank policy tightening significantly higher, sometimes against the banks' own guidance, suggesting that central bankers may be losing control of the narrative. A key test on that front with tonight's RBA meeting and on Wednesday with the next FOMC. We also look into the latest on energy, equities soaring despite rising short yields, the very busy week ahead for earnings and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/2ZxxDS6 -
Today we look at the market thumbing its nose at the ECB meeting and front-running eventual rate hike guidance despite Lagarde's protests, the loud silence from the RBA as the market challenges its yield curve control policy, weak results from Apple and especially Amazon, Facebooking going Meta, the latest on energy and now food prices becoming a concern and a preview of a massive week ahead for the US dollar and US macro risks, with all of the usual first-week-of-the-month data plus an FOMC meeting. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3nAdeUY -
Today we look at the remarkable moves in global yield curves as the Bank of Canada is the latest DM bank to surprise on the hawkish side in abandoning QE and bringing forward the guidance on rate lift-off. This took short yields sharply higher there while the long end of the Canadian yield curve actually fell - a relative development that is nearly universal, if to varying degrees, globally. We also look at the latest developments driving energy prices lower, Tesla versus VW on EV deliveries, earnings highlights and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3jCo23B -
Today we look at the US market finally stumbling slightly yesterday after its torrid recent pace of gains and we dissect some of the market logic that might be continuing to drive the market higher despite rising rates as well as factors like earnings deceleration that could hold the market back from here. A run down of key developments in commodities, FX, earnings releases yesterday and those ahead for today and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3jCi2rS -
Today we look at Tesla news inspiring an aggravated melt-up in Tesla shares, as the company's market valuation passes $1 trillion and is now so large that it contributed significantly to pulling the major indices higher yesterday as well. Also, we delve into the latest earnings news, especially Facebook's, look at prospects for weakening EU growth and the state of play in the French election, US natural gas prices lurching higher, a look at the Australian dollar ahead of tonight's RBA meeting and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Christopher Dembik on macro, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3pzKHBG -
Today we look at the remarkably complacent equity market as the VIX drops back toward cycle lows and the broader US market touches all time highs even as the market prices the Fed to move its rate hike lift-off significantly earlier after comments on Friday from Fed Chair Powell that suggested the Fed is seeing the need for readying policy for a "range of outcomes". We preview this busiest of earnings season weeks, the mounting pressure on inflation from commodities, why the US dollar didn't get more support from Powell's comments and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
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This is the second half of an interview the Saxo Strategy Team hosted with Cathie Wood of the Ark Innovation ETF on October 12, 2021. For a link to the full video interview, see below. You can find the first half of this interview in the podcast feed, uploaded on October 21. Enjoy!
Full interview in video format: https://bit.ly/3naxn3U (find under Previous Webinars)
More about the Ark Innovation ETF: https://ark-funds.com/funds/arkk/
This is the first half of an interview the Saxo Strategy Team hosted with Cathie Wood of the Ark Innovation ETF on October 12, 2021. For a link to the full video interview, see below. We will bring you the second half of the audio of this interview tomorrow on October 22. Enjoy!
Full interview in video format: https://bit.ly/3naxn3U (find under Previous Webinars)
More about the Ark Innovation ETF: https://ark-funds.com/funds/arkk/
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3E1OVWJ -
Today features Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen who takes us through the evidence that stagflation has arrived with sustained higher prices over the horizon while real growth is cratering. We also delve into the copper market, the outlook for a number of currencies, a laundry list of currencies reporting supply chain issues, why yields are headed higher and why the stock market has the backdrop wrong here. Hosting today's pod is John J. Hardy.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3jcsG8A -
Today features Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen and a look across markets, where central bank policy tightening expectations have shifted into a whole new gear this week, led by the RBNZ and the Bank of England, with the Fed behind the curve on its insistence on first tapering. Also, we look at a rare significant USD move overnight as the Chinese renminbi broke higher versus the US dollar and took other USD pairs with it. A special focus today on AUDUSD and the market thumbing its nose at RBA guidance. We also talk inflation, yield, second round wage effects, the next Fed Chair if it isn't Powell and more. Today's pod hosted by John J. Hardy.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3AT8fDk -
Today we run through a choppy start to the week as the market digests the latest sharp advance in energy prices and bond yields and casts a nervous eye on the feeble Chinese growth data for Q3. We also dive into the sharp flattening of the US yield curve, the hot CPI reading out of New Zealand overnight, look at what drives GBPUSD even more than the recent drastic repricing of the Bank of England's rate hike expectations in recent months, talk extreme JPY weakness and whether it is sustainable, preview the busy earnings calendar for the week ahead and a less busy, but still interesting macro calendar as well. Today's pod hosted by John J. Hardy.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3vgcw2P -
Today we look at an equity market that is in melt-up mode after key resistance fell away in major US equity indices and as tamed long US yields and a weak US dollar are adding fuel to the fire. We fail to see yields heading much lower still without indicating something rather ominous. Elsewhere, a breakdown of the movers and shakers in FX, Bunds over-correcting on growth downgrades for Germany (because of supply constraints, not weak demand), credit, and today's key data points - especially the inflation expectations part of the University of Michigan sentiment survey, which reveals interesting possible source of a seemingly strong economy with weak sentiment. Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3FEYmgp -
Today we look at what could prove a key reversal day across markets as the US CPI release and FOMC minutes failed to trigger significant unease and US long treasury yields actually headed lower after another strong treasury auction yesterday, this time of 30-year T-bonds. With US long yields reversing lower, risk sentiment got a significant boost and the USD was pushed sharply back lower, while the metals market has seized all of the attention in the commodities space. Also on the call, we look at JP Morgan earnings, what's on tap next as earnings season gets into full swing and whether the USD has posted a major top. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3aNeqi1 -
Today we look at the latest choppy session and the important day ahead, with the September US CPI print on tap later today, followed by the FOMC minutes as the Fed is set to taper at its next meeting, and then the important Chinese PPI up in Asia, an important global inflation benchmark. The oil market is still supported by natural gas prices at current levels and will watch the latest OPEC and IEA oil outlooks closely today. Copper, grains, GBP, Apple production woes on chip shortages, a look ahead at US financials and other companies report and more also on the call. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/2X2cfne -
Today we continue to outline our laundry list of concerns as the energy crunch continues its vice grip and as bonds are providing zero offsetting returns when equities come under pressure, and yet the VIX forward curve suggests ongoing complacency. We also look at yields and yield curves, which continue to suggest that markets don't believe central banks are at risk of making a policy mistake. In FX, we zoom in on the sterling outlook, while earnings season is heating up in the US, with an interesting company Fastenal reporting today. Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
This is a special edition podcast with Tor Svelland of Svelland Capital. Tor is a trader and investor in energy, shipping, commodities and related equities with a tremendously deep background in the space. In this interview, Tor takes us through the factors that are pressuring global commodity prices higher, particularly in energy, metals and shipping and takes us through the argument that prices will likely have to go much higher still to attract the kind of investment needed to raise production and carry out the desired transformation of our energy base. Hosting this must-listen interview are Ole Hansen and John J. Hardy.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3AuW5Ao -
Today we look at commodity inflation pressures dominating the agenda ahead of what could prove the most interesting earnings season in years as companies will have to discuss pressures on operations from ongoing supply chain disruptions and the risk of sustained prices rises in operational costs from energy prices and even wage and yield pressures. We also pick apart the US September jobs report, where the headline weak growith in payrolls does not reflect a weak jobs market, and where a fresh surge in average hourly earnings suggest wage pressures a rising. FX, the crude oil price impact on fertilizer and more discussed on the today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3FvCMKY -
Today a look at a double whammy of direction changes yesterday after energy price relief jolted back to new concerns as oil rushed back toward the highs and as US yields are pressuring at cycle highs ahead of the key event risk of the week - the US September jobs report. We put special emphasis in that report on the average hourly earnings data perhaps even more than the nonfarm payrolls change. Elsewhere, a look at Bunds yields, comparing junk yields in Europe and UK with those in the US, the latest on natural gas, the macro calendar for the week ahead and more. Today's pod features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3Aooxnr -
Today a look at the significant sentiment shift as a number of issues dogging market confidence have suddenly cleared, if possibly only temporarily, especially the direction of energy prices after a statement from Russian president Vladimir Putin on supplying the market. As well, US Congress looks set to kick the debt ceiling issue out to December. Elsewhere, we look at the possible model for the Chinese approach to troubled companies like Evergrande, the resurgent pound at pivotal levels and much more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3lc2FHQ -
Today we look at the ongoing energy crisis, which is spreading more aggressively into oil prices now, scratch our heads at yesterday's attempt to piece together a rally in equities and then the negative sentiment shift overnight and into this morning, with no relief in sight as the USD pulls back stronger, driven in part by rising US treasury yields. A look at interesting policy signals from Prime Minister Boris Johnson in a speech today, inflationary signals from cotton and PepsiCo's guidance on price hikes, the RBNZ sell-the-fact rate hike overnight and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3BdZEMz -
Today we look at the issues that continue to dog this market, with a fresh rush higher in energy prices across the board in the wake of a OPEC+ meeting, as crude oil prices cleared 7-year highs, the US debt ceiling issue still an open question, Japanese equities deflating on new Prime Minister Kishida, and Facebook's no-good, very bad day/week. We also argue that this sell-off may not have even really gotten started, judging from the forward VIX curve. We also look at PepsiCo as a compelling bellwether, signs of a wobble in EM corporate credit and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3l5jzHW -
Today we look an attempt to put together a strong close last week and why markets wilted again overnight, in party on news out of China, but also on sources indicating that the US Trade Representation Katherine Tai is set to say that China is not living up to the terms of the trade deal agreed under the Trump administration. Her appearance today is the first real opportunity to get a temperature check on the Biden administrations attitude and intentions on trade policy with China. Plenty more on the call, including a look at Tesla's impressive Q3 delivery numbers, interesting FX stories for the week ahead and the earnings and macro calendar preview. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/2ZDl1sK -
Today we look at US equity market that has gone over the edge technically and what could come next, given that we have crossed into a volatility event horizon that seems to almost guarantee either a further and accelerating swoon or an almost equally volatile market bounce. We also look into contributing factors that both aggravated the scale of the bull market off the pandemic low and why a sizable percentage of the gains since then are in mortal danger - especially due to the limitations of the physical world and the spiking price of energy, which policy makers can't so easily address as they can liquidity. Today's pod features Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen, Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/39R84xm -
Today we have a look at bond yields cooling and risk appetite stabilizing and even improving, but with a new injection of energy from the currency market, where a big US dollar breakout is on the loose as key resistance levels gave way and EURUSD pounded down to its lowest levels in well over a year. A strong dollar is a potential new cause for concern if it persists. Elsewhere, we look at real yields rising in sympathy with the latest moves in Treasuries, cratering silver prices as gold hold comparatively firm, possible early signs of a corporate credit wobble, fresh spike in European NatGas prices and now cotton prices spiking and more. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/2Wl1c8j -
We have no idea where markets are headed, but yesterday saw a new capitulation of sorts in equity markets, particularly for interest rate sensitive stocks, which underperformed a broadly sold market. Key technical levels are dead ahead in the US S&P 500, including the pivot low of the prior sell-off and the 100-day moving average, while we ponder the contributors to this sell-off, spiking yields and especially energy prices, which actually cooled yesterday in the case of crude oil. We also look at the currency market heating up in sympathy with volatile equity markets, gold showing some degree of resilience while sterling was in for a heavy beating, and in equities, we zoom in on Micron and ASML. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3idjgco -
Today we discuss whether the global energy crunch issue, after another day with massive rises in natural gas prices and Brent crude crossing the 80 dollar/barrel threshold, is set to administer a "Eureka moment" to markets and trigger a run for cover. An additional issue that could pressure risky asset valuations is the recent sharp rise in global yields, with US yields leading the way. A look at natural gas, new highs in cotton prices, the US treasury yield levels and an incoming auction today, Polestar going public and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3uhmfp6 -
Today we look at the latest advance in US equities despite ongoing concerns centered on energy prices and the critical focus this week: the fate of Biden's cornerstone fiscal stimulus initiatives and the onrushing debt ceiling issue as the US government's financial year ends this Thursday. We also have the breakout higher in US long yields to consider this week, with key US and EU inflation. We also have a look at the results of the German election and implications for the formation of a government there, a possible shift in the drivers for precious metals, and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3o7gdGi -
Today features Saxo Chief Economist and CIO Steen Jakobsen as we look at the huge spike in longer US treasury yields yesterday and sympathetic moves in EU and UK yields and at what point rising long yields might disrupt an equity market on the comeback trail. We also look at next week's main events, namely a pivotal German election and all that is at stake there, while also pondering the difficult path to additional US fiscal stimulus and this year's iteration of the old debt ceiling issue. Today's pod also features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/2W45MYu -
Today we break down where the FOMC meeting - and really Fed Chair Powell's press conference more specifically - surprised modestly on the hawkish side, but why the market reaction was relatively limited as focus seems elsewhere now, especially on China's Evergrande. Still, the market bulls will have to overcome pivotal resistance in the US equity market that was the support on the way down. We also look at today's Bank of England meeting and why sterling has ignored the recent ramp-up in short UK yields, precious metals and crude oil, equity themes, Nike ahead of today's earnings report and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic