The 10-Minute Take: Recent Episodes
RBC Thought Leadership
The 10-Minute Take podcast provides insights from RBC economists and market experts on events unfolding around the globe.
Oil prices spiked last week following escalating conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Iran. This has raised concerns about higher inflation against an already uncertain economic backdrop.In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone unpack:• How high inflation could hit in Canada and the U.S. if oil prices continue higher.• How higher energy prices could impact growth.• What this could mean for interest rates in Canada and the U.S.
An enormous U.S. government deficit continues to raise concerns about fiscal sustainability as Moody’s joined other rating agencies in downgrading the U.S.’s credit rating.This raises questions about the implications for U.S. monetary policy, interest rates, and the impact on neighboring economies. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone explore:•Why fiscal challenges may be limiting the U.S. Federal Reserve’s ability to cut interest rates.•How the recent "Big Beautiful Bill" could add to the fiscal burden.•What these trends mean for Canada’s economy and monetary policy.
The U.S. administration reducing tariffs on Chinese imports from a staggering 145% to 30% marked a significant breakthrough in the ongoing trade war. But, the average effective U.S. tariff rate still sits at 13%— and fundamental trade headwinds haven't disappeared.In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC's Economics Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone take you through how our forecasts for U.S. core inflation, consumer spending and growth have changed with the reduction of Chinese tariffs. They also tackle:• How an unwinding of tariffs on Chinese imports will impact our outlooks for U.S. core inflation, consumer spending, and growth.• How this policy shift factors into the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions for 2025.• Whether Canada's economic outlook will be impacted by U.S.-China trade developments.
The trade war is changing travel plans. As tensions simmer, Canadians’ trips to the U.S. dropped substantially in early 2025 compared to last year.But, vacations weren’t cancelled altogether—Canadians are just going somewhere else. And, this trend of travelling less to the U.S. isn't unique to Canada – arrivals to the U.S. from other countries have also slumped this year.In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone explore:• How travel patterns have changed in 2025 to reflect broader trade tensions.• Whether tourism within Canada will rise to offset international declines.• How these trends may impact the services sector’s outlook and trade deficits.
Full-blown reciprocal U.S. tariffs are on pause for 90 days, but sizeable 10% tariffs imposed on most countries on April 5 remains in place, and it, along with steep tariffs on imports from China, could have significant implications for the country’s inflation and growth.The U.S. trade-weighted average tariff rate is currently at its highest since the 1930s, but, in a twist of fate, Canada has emerged as one of the least impacted countries, thanks to USMCA exemptions.RBC Economics has updated forecasts for the U.S. and Canada to reflect these developments. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone attempt to answer these questions:· How will tariffs influence inflation and GDP growth in the U.S. and Canada?· Will either country see a recession in the coming year?· What could future policy from the Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve look like?
More attention is being focused on how Canada can better diversify trade to alternative sources as U.S. tariffs and threats continue to escalate. In the goods trade, Canada's geographical proximity to the U.S. makes it difficult to diversify away from the U.S. But, that is much less of a constraint for services. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone dig into: •How much services Canada trades and with who? •Is Canada is well positioned to leverage services for broader trade diversification? •What are the headwinds facing services amid the ongoing trade war?
Consumers and businesses on both sides of the border have been paralyzed with uncertainty related to trade. Confidence has tanked and we've also witnessed a notable deterioration in other “soft” sentiment data in recent months.The extent that recent trade policies have impacted hard data is unclear but matters more for central bank decisions. In this week’s episode, RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone break down how trade turbulence is impacting labour markets in Canada and the U.S., and what to expect next in the ongoing trade war.
Economic data has shown that Canadian inflation was a little firmer than expected in early 2025, especially after considering the impact of the federal tax holiday that pushed prices lower for a few categories including restaurant dining.In the U.S., the picture is a bit “stickier.” Broadly resilient consumer demand has been keeping price pressures at uncomfortably high levels, and not all U.S. households are impacted equally. Those that earn less tend to have less options in avoiding higher priced essentials. Join RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone as they give their latest take on inflation, and how the looming trade rift plays into that.
As the threat of tariffs has been evolving, economists have been busy assessing the potential economic fallout. In this episode, RBC Economics’ Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan discuss:-What we know about the tariffs announced, what retaliation could look like and how these forces will impact both the Canadian and U.S. economies.-What Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said in the January meeting about how the Bank could respond.-How markets reacted to tariff news and how we are assessing the balance of risk between a hit to demand and price pressures arising from potential policies.Join us as we unpack how we’re thinking about the potential damage from a trade war.
The looming threat of potential U.S. tariffs is keeping economists and monetary policymakers up at night. In this episode, RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone break down: -How RBC Economists are thinking about a U.S. tariff shock- including the multiple stages of passthrough to the economy. -How we think the Bank of Canada could respond to higher prices resulting from tariffs. -Why “reshoring” isn’t as easy as it sounds. Tune in to hear why tariffs are demand-destructive and to understand the Bank of Canada’s predicament if required to respond to these policy-induced price-shifts. While we highlight that the economic damage is likely too severe for these threats to materialize, we also discuss what the consequences would be for the U.S. and Canada if tariffs are implemented.
Season three of the 10-Minute Take is here, and we’re kicking things off with a deep dive into a hot topic—the Canadian dollar’s dramatic dip against the U.S. dollar, to levels unseen since the pandemic. In this episode, RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone break down: •The key drivers behind the loonie’s recent slump.•What this means for inflation in the current economy.•Where we think the currency is headed in 2025. Tune in to hear why we don’t expect the Bank of Canada to bat an eye, and how Canada’s strong net international investment position will be particularly helpful.
The Canadian economy has been through a whirlwind in 2024. Canada has been in an extended period of underperforming per capita growth compared to the United States since 2019. Still, 2024 was a pivotal year for Canadians with inflation coming down and interest rates finally moving lower. But has inflation truly been tamed? If so, why doesn't it "feel" like affordability has truly gotten better? And, how do big policy pivots on immigration and global trade fit into it all?Join RBC economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan in this 2024 10-Minute Take wrap-up episode. They'll discuss the highlights in a year-in-review before addressing key themes for 2025 in the final episode of the season.
The U.S. government deficit is unusually large at 6.4% of gross domestic product in 2024—the average over the last five decades is 3.7%. Promises from the new Trump administration on the campaign trail suggest it is likely to grow even bigger over the next four years. Massive fiscal spending has been fueling U.S. growth, but will have important and, ultimately, costly consequences for the economy. Lower corporate taxes could also hurt Canada’s competitiveness, at a time when the economic divergence with the U.S. is already large. In this 10-Minute Take, RBC economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone dive into the growing government deficit in the U.S., and its ripple effects on Canada.
Canadian household balance sheets appear exceptionally strong as disposable income continues to rise alongside savings. But, what the latest economic data tells us is distinctly different from how many households are feeling. There are many signs the average Canadian consumer is suffering. How can both be true at the same time?On this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan discuss this paradox of some Canadians falling behind on credit card payments, while others see savings rise. We’ll unpack the different realities experienced by various income groups, focusing on spending behaviours, debt accumulation or savings, and the distinct difference between wage growth and changes in disposable income.
The Bank of Canada cut the overnight rate by 50 basis points in October—marking the largest reduction since the pandemic. A day later, the federal government announced new immigration targets for the next three years that would drastically alter population growth in Canada. Both of these moves will have an impact on the Canadian economy.On this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone discuss the latest rate cut, why it was bigger than before and what to expect from the BoC going forward. They’ll also tackle how immigration targets fit into it all.
With many Canadian households planning to renew longer-term fixed rate mortgages at higher rates into 2025 and 2026, Canada’s “mortgage renewal cliff” is hardly behind us. Higher mortgage payments mean less money leftover to spend on essentials and non-essentials and on balance, a weaker economic outlook. But we don't think this is a huge risk, as long as interest rates continue to drop and labour markets don't plummet.Join RBC Economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan to discuss the upcoming wave of mortgage renewals, how it impacts the overall economy, and why we think the worst of the mortgage renewal cliff is behind us.
Headline inflation in Canada dropped to the 2% target set by the Bank of Canada for the first time since the pandemic in August. That means higher interest rates implemented by the central bank since 2022 have worked to reduce price pressures and restore balance back in the economy.But as much as that is good news, a closer look at the data shows today’s 2% inflation is not quite the same as 2% inflation from before the pandemic. On this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone discuss the latest inflation trends in Canada and how and why it’s different from before and what this means for the economy going forward.
The U.S. Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate for the first time since the pandemic in September by 50 basis points. The easing of monetary policy was highly anticipated with inflation showing further signs of deceleration and a very gradual, but worrying, rise in unemployment. Still, many were expecting a 25 basis point cut, because overall economic output remains strong–propped up by robust consumer activity.On this episode of the 10-Minute Take, join RBC Economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone and special guest, RBC Chief Economist Frances Donald, as they unpack the Fed's latest interest rate decision and what red or green flags are emerging from U.S. economic data.
The Liberal government recently announced new tariffs on electric vehicles, steel and aluminum imports from China—marking the latest move in the global trend of trade segregation to boost domestic priorities.That’s not the end of it - by the end of the ongoing 30-day government consultation, tariffs could also be imposed on other products including solar cells, EV batteries, chips, and critical minerals. These new measures are aimed to shield domestic producers from unfair international competition, but will also lead to an immediate increase in input costs for Canadian importers, while creating more tension amid an already frigid global trade environment.
Both U.S. and Canadian households are facing recession fears- but for different reasons. Downside surprises to U.S. data in early August triggered a massive equity selloff. And a triggering of the “Sahm rule” in the U.S. was met with recession fears. In Canada, households are feeling stretched and job seekers struggle to find work. Despite not being in a recession, it certainly feels like one. How will Central Banks react and when will things start to feel easier for Canadian households? In this episode of the 10-minute take, join RBC Economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone for a macro update as they answer your burning questions around the latest data points, recession fears, and what all of this means for the year ahead.
Younger Canadians are bearing the brunt of the softening labour market, accounting for the lion’s share— 80%—of the increase in Canada's unemployment rate since the summer of 2022. That share is much higher than in previous downturns like the global financial crisis. Not having a job results in a big hit to disposable income. That coupled with surging costs to service mortgages and other debt has forced many younger Canadian households to deleverage. Some of these challenges are set to unwind in the year ahead, as inflation eases and interest rates drop lower. Other issues, including limited access to the housing market could have a longer-lasting impact on young Canadians' lives. In this week’s episode of the 10-Minute Take, join RBC economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone as they take a deep dive into the challenges facing young Canadians.
The recent deterioration of the Canadian labour market comes at a time when immigration and population growth have also increased significantly. Many have put the two together, and attributed rising unemployment solely to the increase in the labour force due to newcomers. On that, we have a different view. It is true that landed immigrants are seeing a faster increase in the unemployment rate, but that’s been the case whenever the economy has softened in previous periods. This time around, the bigger deterioration was seen among students and new graduates who are having an increasingly hard time landing a job as demand for labour continues to pull back. In this week’s episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone unpack trends in the labour market, starting with how immigration fits into it all. They’ll then discuss which age groups and industries have been hit particularly hard, before finishing up with what to expect going forward.
The focus is back on former U.S. president Donald Trump’s regressive trade policies after the first U.S. presidential debate and heading into November’s elections.On his campaign trail, Trump has promised to impose hefty tariffs on imports if elected for a second term—suggesting 60% tariffs on imports from China and 10% tariffs on all other imports across the board. in this week’s episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone look back at tariffs imposed by Trump during his last presidency and their impact on the U.S. economy. They’ll debunk some of the common misconceptions about the impact of tariffs on economic growth and job creation, before moving on to answer key questions such as what to expect this time around, and how Canada fits into it all.
Canada’s underperformance in productivity has attracted a lot of limelight recently. It’s not a new problem, but the gap (especially when measured against the U.S.) has simply gotten too large to ignore. In the 1970s, the level of Canadian productivity was roughly 90% of U.S. levels. Today it’s more like 70%. That deterioration over the decades leads to an enormous $20,000 earnings gap, between an average Canadian and an average American currently per year.Indeed, historically, gains in productivity have correlated well with real wage growth. And that’s really why everyone should care about slower productivity. Because at its core, a lack of productivity growth means a lack of improvement in living standards. On this episode of the 10-Minute Take, join RBC Assistant Chief Economist Nathan Janzen and Economist Claire Fan as they tackle productivity. They’ll start by going over all the basics – what productivity is, how it’s measured and why it matters, before detailing a few of the many drivers underlining Canada’s underperformance, and what could help in the period ahead.
An early summer this year means the travel season is brought upon us a bit sooner. What can we look forward to this year that might be different from before? For one, it took longer for Canadians to feel comfortable with longer distance travel but as of the end of 2023, demand for oversea tourism had finally recovered. That part will likely continue to bloom this summer, as more Canadians travel further away to destinations that may have something different to offer. Switching the lens inward, the rebound in travel demand among Canadians has not been fully reciprocated by foreign visitors coming to travel in Canada. Over there, there’s still a sizable gap to be filled.On this episode of the 10-Minute Take, join RBC Economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan as they unpack travel trends. They’ll start by going over where things stand as of the beginning of this year, before getting to some soft spots remaining, and explain why or why not those will bounce back in 2024.
An aging population has dire economic and fiscal consequences. It means widespread labour shortages, more upward pressure on wage growth and inflation, and potentially a growing funding gap for public social services. Canada is not alone in facing such challenges. What is unique, however, is how the Canadian government has utilized immigration as a tool to combat those headwinds. On this episode of the 10-Minute Take, join RBC Economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan as they unpack what it means for the economy to have an aging population. They’ll highlight how Canada measures up against the U.S. and the role immigration can play to soften the blow.
In April, the Bank of Canada shifted its estimate for neutral rate up 25 basis points- a reflection that the 'normal' of interest rates in the post-pandemic era is likely higher than the decade before. What exactly are ‘neutral’ rates and how did the Bank know to adjust them higher? After many decades of neutral rates moving lower, why is the pendulum swinging back? On this episode of the 10-Minute Take, join RBC Economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone as they chat monetary policy and answer all of your burning questions around the ‘neutral’ rate of interest.
In early 2024, the disparity in economic performance among advanced economies has grown more apparent. Increasingly, we are seeing the Canadian economy underperforming, especially comparing to strong conditions in the U.S.. Not so optimistic, however, are the U.S. inflation numbers that are once again gathering heat. This has prompted considerations that the Federal Reserve will need to keep rates higher for much longer. But will the BoC have to follow suit?On this week’s episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone will answer this question for you. They will start by going over where the potential concerns are with a rate divergence between the Bank of Canada and the Fed, before getting to why the BoC is not expected to be derailed in its upcoming easing cycle.
Housing affordability has become a generational concern in Canada and recently took centre-stage in the Federal Budget. At today’s prices, two-thirds of Canadian households cannot afford to purchase a detached home based on earned-income alone. How did we get here? And how can we improve access to home ownership?On this week’s episode of the 10-Minute Take we are joined by special guest, RBC’s Assistant Chief Economist Robert Hogue to discuss his latest report, The Great Rebuild. Robert will unpack what has driven Canada’s momentous housing supply challenges and how they can be solved in the years ahead.
Two weeks ago, Canada’s Minister of Immigration announced plans to limit the scope of international migration in Canada over the coming years. The announcement detailed early plans to reduce the share of temporary residents (mostly study and work permit holders) in the population to 5% over the next three years. In order for that target to be reached, the number of temporary residents will need to drop by a staggering 20% over the same time frame. On this week’s episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone break this new policy down. They will walk through details of the newly announced cap, who’s expected to be impacted in the near-term before delving deeper to discuss the broader implications on Canada’s population growth, GDP and other important economic metrics.
Canadian renters are more squeezed than ever before! Renters are allocating a greater share of their take-home pay to housing than homeowners at the same time that costs for other essentials (and interest on debt) have risen. This has resulted in renters as a collective spending more than they earn. Down-payment requirements are mounting relative to take-home pay, making it exceptionally difficult to save for a home. On this week’s episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone unpack housing as a vehicle for wealth accumulation, explaining how opportunities for wealth generation are becoming less accessible and what that means for a large segment of Canada’s population.
Generative AI is still a relatively new technology- to-date, just over 9% of Canadian businesses have adopted it. But among Canadians who use generative AI, the vast majority say it improves their work. Canada has been long plagued by slowing productivity growth, which is essential for raising Canadians’ standard of living. Will generative AI be the silver bullet solution to Canada’s productivity challenge? In this week’s episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan answer all of your burning questions around generative AI and what it could mean for economic growth in Canada.
Over the past few years, Canada’s population growth has eclipsed the global average. International students accounted for about 20% of the recent population surge. The immense growth has ignited concerns about housing availability and affordability. On this episode of the 10-Minute Take, we welcome back RBC Economist Rachel Battaglia, who will unpack the new federal policy and explain whether it will have an impact on rental demand (and prices) going forward.
In 2023, Canadian households faced higher debt-servicing costs on mortgages and consumer credit as well as higher rents. Canadians had to tighten their belts and in many cases, forgo savings. Will 2024 look different? What will drive the slow rebound in the back half of the year? Join RBC Economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone as they unpack consumer trends and explain why the back half of this year will look different.
Just a couple of weeks into the new year and the economic landscape is full of surprises. Data on Canadian inflation again showed just how "sticky" domestic price pressures can be. Globally, supply chains are again being challenged, with attacks in the Red Sea disrupting container shipments. And finally, Canadian labour markets have been slowing for months. But unlike prior downturns, layoffs have actually been relatively limited and it's longer job searches for students and new graduates that are bearing the brunt instead.On this episode of the 10-Minute Take, join RBC economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan as they walk through three key trends that already jumped out as surprises in 2024.
It’s a new year and the Bank of Canada (BoC)'s overnight rate is currently sitting at its highest level in over two decades. Canadians facing higher borrowing costs are eager to see the BoC come to the rescue by changing course with interest rate cuts. But is the economic data soft enough for the BoC to pivot? On this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan unpack their views on when rate cuts will happen and what the trajectory will look like.
The Canadian economy has seen some pivotal shifts in 2023. The year started off with inflation at multi-decade highs, widespread labour shortages, and exceptionally strong consumer spending. The economy was very obviously overheating, and “recession” was more of a buzzword than a reality. Fast-forward to December and the macro data is looking considerably softer, in-line with a mild recession. Join RBC Economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone in this final episode of the season where they provide a recap of key macro themes that played out this year and tell you what to look out for in the year ahead.
Many indicators these days are pointing to deteriorations in labour market conditions in Canada. Job vacancies are down, job searching time have lengthened. The unemployment rate is still low but has increased by 0.7% over the span of 6 months. Clouding the outlook for the Canadian jobs market is also the slowdown in consumer demand, especially for discretionary services industries where staffing levels never fully recovered to pre-pandemic to begin with. Outright layoffs to-date are still limited. But record level of household indebtedness these days also means that job losses, when they come, could hurt much more than they used to. In this week's episode of the 10-Minute Take, economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan look at the latest Canadian labour market data. They’ll discuss what’s behind the ongoing deterioration, and what to expect moving forward.
This past decade, Canada's population growth outpaced India, China, and South and Central America, surpassing the global average. In recent years, Canada's soaring population growth has been entirely fueled by immigration. Canada relies heavily on newcomers to fill jobs left vacant by retiring Baby Boomers. But rising need for housing is adding to pre-existing housing affordability concerns. In this week's episode of the 10-Minute Take, economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan will unpack the latest federal immigration targets, and discuss how rising immigration has impacted the Canadian economy.
High inflation and even higher interest rates are turning up the heat for Canadians, making it increasingly challenging for consumers and businesses to pay off existing debt, to spend or to invest. Indeed, the latest Bank of Canada surveys revealed that almost 60% of consumers had to cut spending in Q3 as they contended with elevated prices and debt-servicing expenses. Echoing that was a slowing in demand reported by businesses, some of whom even flagged an outright decline in sales over the past year. The silver lining? Slower demand is lowering inflation pressures, making it less likely for prices to have to go up as large or as frequently moving forward. Tune in to this week’s episode of the 10-Minute Take as RBC economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan walk you through the latest quarterly Bank of Canada surveys, and unpack what it all means for BoC rate decisions moving forward.
U.S GDP growth continues to soar while activity cools off in Canada. Canadians have tightened their belts, prioritizing the purchase of essentials over discretionary goods. In the U.S., consumers are still spending at a record pace and momentum has yet to fade. But will the U.S. continue to outperform Canada? We don’t think so! Tune in to this week’s episode of the 10-Minute Take as RBC economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan unpack what’s driving U.S. resilience and why it won’t last.
High inflation has prompted many workers to push for wage increases, and unions are responding by pressuring employers to pony up. Canada has witnessed a drastic surge in labour stoppages- or strikes- in recent months. There’s still a gap to close - wage increases for unionized workers since early 2020 lag those of non-unionized workers by about 7%. But will this mean sustained pressure on wage growth in the future? On this episode, we are joined by RBC Economist Rachel Battaglia to discuss what’s driving the higher frequency of wage disputes and the importance of taming inflation in order to mitigate these disruptions.
While Americans are still spending, Canadians are tightening their belts. And the U.S. economy continues to surge while Canada's shows early signs of weakness. Why? Debt levels and faster refinancing! In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone explain how debt impacts Canadian consumer behaviour, which age cohorts are most impacted--and just how worried we should be about it all. Tune in!
Western countries are still grappling with decade-high interest rates and elevated inflation. But in China, prices fell on a year over year basis in July. And amid softer consumer demand and a wobbly real estate market, the Chinese central bank has taken the opposite measure to its Western counterparts: cutting key lending rates. Just how bad could things get in China? In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan break down what's happening and what it might mean for the rest of the world. We explore the slew of data coming out of the country, add some important context on demographic trends before bringing the conversation back to Canada.
Western central banks don't want to push interest rates higher…but they will if they need to. So how effective have rate hikes actually been? The latest data offers conflicting signals: unemployment is up but inflation remains above target—and consumer spending is still strong. In this episode, RBC economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone examine this burning question, assess the likelihood of a “soft landing” (and explain what that is).
If you have a four-legged friend at home, that makes you part of the pet economy!Today the global pet industry stands at over $250 billion USD and is over twice the size of the global film industry. Part of the boom can be traced back to the pandemic, when households’ time spent at home rose substantially, along with their need for companionship - the US alone added 5 million pets from 2019 to 2022. The outlook for the pet sector however is less positive, as interest rate hikes take purchasing power out of households’ hands, lowering spending on all things including pet-related products and services. Join RBC Economics Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan in this week’s episode of the Ten Minute Take, where they take a closer look at the pet economy, how much it’s grown and where it’s headed.
The most aggressive monetary tightening cycle since the 1990s has sent interest rates soaring. Yet Canadians keep on spending. Why and will they keep it up? In this week’s episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone explain why spending will slow but won’t outright decline.
If you’re wondering whether your grocery bills will ever turn out less scary than they are now, we have bad news for you. Food inflation peaked in Canada just this past January. But slowing inflation does not mean lower prices, it merely means prices will climb at a slower rate. What’s causing prices for food to stay high? And moving forward, what are some of the challenges that will continue to put pressure on food prices in the next decade? Join RBC Economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone on this episode of the Ten Minute Take, as they dig into food inflation, and answer questions about your grocery bills.
The Bank of Canada put the brakes on its record rate hiking cycle in January. Five months later, it sprang back into action—surprising much of Bay Street with a 25 basis point increase. What drove the decision and how much higher will rates rise? More important: how will this impact Canadians? Join RBC Economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone on this week’s episode of the 10-Minute Take.
Anxious to scratch your travel itch this summer but worried about disruptions and high prices? You’re not alone! In this week’s episode of the 10 Minute Take podcast, RBC economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan break down this year's travel trends for you. We start with what drove the chaos last summer, before moving on to chat about some interesting trends we’ve uncovered. As it turns out, despite resilient demand, Canadians have already made subtle changes to their travel choices to combat rising prices. Finally, we’ll chat about the outlook for travel in an increasingly challenging economic environment, and why we expect things to slow but not crash.
“Allow us to introduce ourselves!” In this episode of the 10 Minute Take, get to know RBC economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan. Spend a day in the life of an economist and get our latest hot takes on the macro outlook. What's changed since RBC’s initial recession call last summer? Are signs of weakness emerging? And finally, what do we lie awake thinking about?
Canada's largest public sector strike in decades just ended—with a deal that includes double-digit wage hikes. Will negotiated wage settlements like these undermine the Bank of Canada’s efforts to cool inflation? RBC economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan discuss this and other issues on this episode of the 10 Minute Take.
Just as house prices in Canada start to cool off, rent costs are heating up. What's driving the increase? Declining affordability comes to mind as high home prices push more would-be buyers into rentals. But are other factors at play? And just how pricey can the rental market get? On this special episode of the Ten Minute Take, Rachel Battaglia from the RBC Economics team talks us through the ups and downs of Canada's home rental market-and what's next.
The failures of SVB and other U.S. regional banks sent markets roiling. But what does this mean for the broader economy? Is it all temporary noise or could it leave longer-lasting scars on financial markets? In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone will take you back to basics, explaining what market volatility is, where they see it and how it will affect economic growth and central bank decisions.
The federal budget tabled a buffet of new spending measures. But the price tag was hefty: a $40 billion deficit and no sign of a return to balanced books anytime soon. Is Ottawa spending too much? And how does the budget jive with the current economic and monetary policy backdrop? RBC economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone answer these and other burning questions in this episode of the 10-Minute Take.
Why are restaurant reservations so hard to find these days? Labour market tightness--it's something we hear on every corner. But what does it really mean? And how is that relevant to you? Join RBC economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone in this episode of the 10-Minute Take reboot, where they share their take on Canadian labour markets and where they're heading.
Inflation is down, right? So why is my grocery bill still so high? Recent data showed price growth losing steam…yet everything from coffee to chocolate is still expensive. We'll explain why, and what to expect in the months ahead on the first episode of the 10-Minute Take reboot.
Macroeconomics for everybody! The (new) 10-Minute Take podcast from RBC Economics will explain (in simple terms) what the latest economic data means and why you should care. It's everything you wanted to know but were too shy to ask -- in less than 10 minutes.
Global markets have been bouncing up and down since President Trump announced he tested positive for COVID-19 last week. Add to this the on-again, off-again stimulus talks ahead of the already-contested November 3rd U.S. election and you have a recipe for political uncertainty and increased market volatility. And yet, volatility has been relatively muted -- pullbacks have been shallow while upsides have been capped. Are we seeing a paradigm shift in risk tolerance? George Davis, RBC Capital Markets' Chief Technical Strategist in Foreign Exchange Trading, shares what’s surprised him about recent market movements.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
If you felt your travel plans were disappointing this summer, spare a thought for the airline industry. Border restrictions, travel advisories, mandatory self-quarantine… policies that are critical for public health have been devastating to carriers, which are hemorrhaging millions of dollars each day. When will travel get back to normal? How does the propensity to travel differ across classifications? And how are carriers convincing customers that it's safe to fly again? Walter Spracklin, Transportation and Industrials Analyst at RBC Capital Markets, shares what the airline industry needs to recover from the COVID crisis.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
In today's Speech from the Throne, the Governor General is expected to lay out the government's vision for the pandemic recovery. It won’t be easy, with COVID-19 cases on the rise and investor confidence wobbling. While the economy has improved since April lows, the recovery continues to be fragile – especially in the face of a possible second wave. Where should the government focus its investments? And if it survives the confidence vote, what could we expect in its next budget? Craig Wright, RBC's Chief Economist, shares his view on the economic outlook and what’s needed from the throne speech.
Background Reading:
Canadian throne speech to lay out policy plans in the thick of pandemic: https://bit.ly/2ZZ7xVO Economic conditions improve but bumpy road ahead: https://bit.ly/3clyJD2
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
2020 brought us a pandemic and a boiling point in protests over racial inequities - and investors took notice. It's why the market has seen record flows into ESG - or, environmental, social, and governance - funds, which have benefited sectors that may be surprising to some. Could we see more funds going into traditional sectors? And what trends may gain momentum into 2021? Sara Mahaffy, RBC Capital Markets' U.S. Equity Strategist, shares her findings on ESG performance.
Background Reading:
As S&P Companies Rethink D&I Policies, ESG Funds Attract Record Flows: https://bit.ly/35GFU7y
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
To many observers, last week's dramatic sell-off of tech stocks was inevitable, especially given how fast they climbed since the March low. But the appeal of tech won't fade anytime soon. The pandemic fundamentally altered behaviour (did anyone say work from home?) and set into motion a rethink of how companies will operate in a digital-first world - and what technologies they'll need to succeed. So what does the performance of tech stocks actually reveal about investor sentiment? And how will tech-heavy markets fare with the uncertainty of future government stimulus? Alex Zukin, RBC Capital Markets' Software Equity Analyst, shares why there are still tailwinds ahead for tech.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
Wyoming’s state motto, “Equal Rights,” might have hinted at the U.S. Fed’s new monetary policy strategy that was revealed at this year’s (virtual) Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Chairman Jerome Powell announced changes emphasizing the importance of both inflation and labour within its mandate. But what are the risks of shifting from an inflation target of 2% to an average of 2% over time? And how will a renewed focus on employment affect interest rates and growth into 2021? Tom Porcelli, RBC Capital Markets’ Chief U.S. Economist, shares his take on how the Fed’s new approach could play out in markets and the economy.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
Apple is within striking distance of a historic USD$2 trillion valuation, buoyed by a loyal customer base and our collective dependence on smartphones. Even amid a global pandemic, the company has benefited from a boost in sales thanks to government stimulus. But can the company continue to stay hungry (and foolish, as Steve Jobs would say) in its dominant market position? And how will it fare in the face of lawsuits and antitrust probes? Robert Muller, RBC Capital Markets' Enterprise Hardware Analyst, shares what's behind Apple's growth.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
Across Canada, the housing market rebounded as pent-up demand pumped up sales volumes and prices in June and July. Montreal, for example, set a new record – 46% jump in year-over-year sales. The pandemic has also shifted preferences, as more homebuyers venture to the suburbs in favour of space and greenery (putting a damper on the previously-hot urban condo market). Will we see this activity extend into the fall? And has COVID created a fundamental change in buying behaviour? RBC Senior Economist Robert Hogue shares his outlook on the housing market.
Background reading: https://bit.ly/3gRZi42
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
When we (eventually) return to the office, it will look and feel very different. Picture screening technologies, touchless credentials, roomy elevators. Imagine breathing cleaner air. Of course, all of these COVID-prompted upgrades won't come cheap. To get tenants comfortably back in buildings, landlords will have to make expensive, but necessary, retrofits. Will there still be enough demand for commercial buildings? And could this lead to more ESG investment into the industrial sector? Deane Dray, Multi-Industry and Electrical Equipment Senior Equity Analyst at RBC Capital Markets, walks us through the post-pandemic landscape for office buildings.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
As we head into a pivotal period of the current earnings season, tech stocks have buoyed key Wall Street indices – Nasdaq, for one, briefly hit another record high earlier this week. But what's on the ticker doesn't necessarily reflect what's on the horizon. The COVID crisis in the U.S. is worsening, while Congress and the White House square off over another aid package. Even c-suite executives are openly sharing their concerns on the economic recovery. How might the rest of earnings season play out? And what do the latest rallies reveal about consumer sentiment? Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets' Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, shares what's beneath the latest market movements.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
Four months into the COVID pandemic and some Americans have hit lockdown fatigue, if traffic data is any indication. Take Las Vegas, which has seen flight activity increase steadily over the last six weeks. Or Houston, where traffic was up and down leading into the 4th of July holiday. Contrast this with Europe and China, which have emerged from lockdowns and are back to near normal activity. How will mobility patterns shift as U.S. re-openings continue to stop and start? And how will this erratic demand affect oil prices? Michael Tran, RBC Capital Markets' Global Energy Strategist, shares his insights from real-time traffic data during the pandemic.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
The COVID crisis delivered a bigger shock to our economy than most expected. Ottawa is forecasting an enormous $343 billion deficit in 2020, which pushes the federal debt load past the $1 trillion mark for the first time. With the worst behind us, the focus now is how to sustain the early economic recovery and especially, how to get Canadians back to work. Can Canada take on more debt without further risking our sovereign credit rating? And how will the federal government transition people from the CERB relief program to more productive wage subsidies or other schemes? Craig Wright, RBC's Chief Economist, shares his take on Canada's fiscal snapshot.
The U.S. gained nearly 5 million jobs in June, but that was before the latest COVID-19 outbreaks. Now, state re-opening plans are being put on hold, if not dialed back – with almost certain economic consequences. And yet, markets are partying like it's 2019 – Dow Jones had its best quarter since 1987, Nasdaq hit a record high. But just how far will the Fed go to support the economy? And will markets get a reality check? Tom Porcelli, RBC Capital Markets' Chief U.S. Economist, shares his update on the U.S. economy.
If content is king, then streaming platforms are its thrones. And those thrones are getting higher and higher as consumers cut the cord with traditional media providers. Audiences have been seeking refuge in front of their screens and services like Netflix, Amazon Prime, and HBO Max have offered their entertaining alms in-kind. But can these producers continue to satiate the people's growing hunger for quality content, especially with halted production around the world? And who among them can survive the ongoing streaming wars? Kutgun Maral, RBC Capital Markets' Media Analyst, shares his outlook on streaming services.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
While most people have been under lockdowns, The Everything Store has been everywhere. The explosive demand for online shopping and surge in remote work have been boons for both Amazon's core retail offering and AWS, its cloud computing business. But can the company capture and sustain this once-in-a-generation opportunity? And how will ongoing antitrust probes in both the U.S. and E.U. affect its growth? Mark Mahaney, RBC Capital Markets' Internet Analyst, shares his take on Amazon.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
The COVID-19 crisis dealt employees a serious blow, and young people have been hit particularly hard with a nearly 30% unemployment rate. The summer months – crucial for internships, seasonal, and starting careers – might not be much better, as employers may call back their furloughed full-timers before hiring students. How will these setbacks affect this cohort's long-term employment prospects? And how effective have government relief programs actually been? Dawn Desjardins, RBC's Deputy Chief Economist, shares the outlook on the youth labour market.
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.
Last week, Saskatchewan, PEI, and Quebec gave updates on their economic and fiscal situation. They weren't pretty, but there's been enough of a boost in activity that RBC Economics has adjusted its forecasts. Quebec was the most dramatic example, with the return of 30,000 jobs. Saskatchewan and PEI, meanwhile, also showed how much damage has been done, with declines in government revenues of 8-10%. Robert Hogue, RBC Senior Economist, shares his update on provincial economic recoveries.
Read the Saskatchewan report: https://bit.ly/2Ynowk3
Read the PEI report: https://bit.ly/3dsl1wR
Read the Quebec report: https://bit.ly/2BrLihG
For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.