RenMac: Recent Episodes
Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick
Stock market commentary from Wall St thought leaders in strategy, economics, technical analysis and policy. Disclaimer ..........
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Former CEA Chair and Federal Reserve Board of Governors member Steve Miran joins the RenMac Off-Script team to discuss why he sees potential growth running closer to 3% than 2% — on tax incentives, deregulation, and AI — and why a data-dependent Fed is "momentum trading" monetary policy rather than forecasting inflation a year out. The team breaks down AI capex draining tech free cash flow, the Warsh Fed's dissents and Waller's hawkish turn, a stronger yen and the mechanics of possible FX intervention. They also explore new S&P highs, Middle East uncertainty, and the week ahead in the CPI print.
Boucher fills in for Dutt, hosting an especially off-script edition of RenMac Off-Script, covering the biggest earnings and macro week of the summer, headlined by Kevin Warsh's dovish Fed hold. Neil Dutta argues the move reeks of a credibility problem that leaves the chair looking weak, with the long end selling off and a September hike increasingly likely as inflation—not growth—owns the Fed's reaction function. Jeff deGraaf puts a face on the momentum crash through the blow-up and rescue of Leopold's levered semis-versus-software trade, calling it a clearing event rather than the all-clear. The team also digs into rising global yields, energy's quiet leadership, tightening credit conditions, and Steve Pavlick's read on reconciliation, the debt limit, and the odds on the Clarity Act.
RenMac breaks down the case for a Fed hike next week — Neil Dutta's "Why Not Now?" call, with September already priced at 100% — as AI capex, rising oil, and tariffs push inflation the wrong way and Warsh weighs moving in his honeymoon. The team also discusses the momentum crash and why the bounce is better sold than endorsed, real yields zapping gold and duration, $100 oil as the Iran conflict shuts the Red Sea, tariff maneuvering after Section 122's expiry, rotation into banks and healthcare, and the week ahead in the July 29 FOMC and core PCE.
RenMac breaks down the vicious unwind in the momentum trade, why a low headline VIX is masking the highest single-stock dispersion the team has ever measured, and how a cooler CPI print does little to stop the Fed conversation from tilting toward a September hike, with inflation, not growth, now owning the reaction function. The team also discusses rising Strait of Hormuz tensions and elevated oil, a looming 25% Brazil tariff, Korea's AI-driven rate hike, yen intervention risk, and the Washington theater around Fed leadership and congressional stock-trading rules.
Big Technology podcast host Alex Kantrowitz joins the RenMac Off-Script team to discuss whether the AI buildout has quietly become the load-bearing pillar of the U.S. economy and what breaks if it stalls. The team breaks down why the compute crunch is separating clear winners from losers, why the semiconductor tape is flashing classic top-of-cycle signals, and why the productivity boom needed to justify the capex simply isn't showing up in the data. They also explore how real rates rather than inflation are tightening financial conditions, why the Warsh Fed is tilting hawkish toward a possible hike, and how a populist revolt against data centers and the escalating China race are reshaping the policy backdrop.
RenMac is joined by banking and payments veteran Howard Mason and digs into a soft payroll report, Chair Warsh's price-stability regime shift, and firming real rates. The team questions how the Fed actually delivers on price stability while hawks fill the vacuum, and turns to a market cycle clock stuck in its worst zone, thinning semiconductor leadership, embers of private credit stress, the yen carry trade and the oil-and-gas round trip.
RenMac breaks down a hawkish shift from the Fed and why higher real yields are reshaping market leadership beneath the surface. The team discusses Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's economic agenda, the rotation away from the Mag 7, mounting stress in private credit, the outlook for Iran and oil prices, and why improving market breadth is encouraging—but not yet an all-clear signal
RenMac breaks down new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first meeting — the most hawkish FOMC outcome on record by the move in the two-year yield — why falling oil won't pull the Fed off its tightening bias, and how rate hikes are now on the table as soon as July. The team also discusses the fragile Iran settlement, a firmer dollar, the Defense Production Act's reach into non-defense names, US-versus-ex-US equity leadership, and the week ahead in core PCE, Micron, and Fed speakers.
RenMac breaks down the SpaceX IPO frenzy, why history suggests caution around the most anticipated market debuts, and how stronger inflation and labor data are shifting the Fed conversation toward a more hawkish stance. The team also discusses private credit liquidity concerns, rising real rates, the Iran outlook, and whether market leadership is finally broadening beyond a handful of crowded trades
RenMac small cap strategist Kevin Dempter joins Off-Script to discuss what's driving small cap outperformance since Liberation Day and whether the run has room to go. The team digs into the technical setup in regionals and biotech as potential breakout catalysts, the SpaceX IPO mechanics and where retail may get trapped, and how to distinguish a durable market super cycle from a dangerous earnings bubble given historically narrow leadership. They also tackle a stronger-than-expected payrolls print that reshuffled the Fed outlook, Neil Dutta's skepticism on AI-driven productivity gains, the FHFA/DNI reshuffle and what it means for Fannie and Freddie, and whether the Trump-China relationship has turned a corner on trade and Iran.
RenMac discusses the equity markets at all-time highs as signs of late-cycle stress accumulate beneath the surface and capital chases the parabola in tech. The team breaks down the historic tech-vs-healthcare disparity in their SERM excess-return model, the tops forming in payments, financials, and crypto, and the Bermuda Triangle of private credit, life insurance, and reinsurance that could become the next pressure point. They also explore Iran's fragile 60-day ceasefire, a global rate-hike cycle that may be doing the Fed's work and the wealth-effect grip on consumer spending.
Zach Pandl, Head of Research at digital asset manager Grayscale Investments, joins the RenMac Off-Script team to discuss the Clarity Act's path through Congress and how stablecoins are challenging banks' monopoly on digital payments. The team also digs into the AI boom's underappreciated reach across the U.S. economy, the breakout in real yields, narrowing market breadth, the Fed's increasingly narrow policy path, and geopolitical pressure points from the Strait of Hormuz to Cuba.
RenMac welcomes Deutsche Bank Vice Chair of Global Macro Ozan Tarman for a deep dive on rising yields, “warflation,” and whether the bond vigilantes are back. The team debates whether the move above 4.50% in the 10-year marks a regime shift, why AI is still carrying equities despite mounting macro stress, and how Iran, Taiwan, and Trump’s China trip are reshaping global markets. They also unpack Kevin Warsh’s difficult Fed setup, crowded positioning across rates and FX, private credit risks, and why housing and consumer may be flashing warning signs beneath the surface.
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RenMac breaks down a labor market that remains stable but uneven, with AI and data center investment continuing to drive hiring, manufacturing, and market leadership while housing, services, and consumer-sensitive sectors soften beneath the surface. The team discusses why slowing wage growth and rising gasoline prices leave the Fed stuck on hold, how semis and tech are entering historic “bubble” territory, and why private credit stress, Iran tensions, and China negotiations could become the next catalysts for volatility.
RenMac breaks down a powerful market rally masking weak breadth and narrow leadership concentrated in AI, semis, and energy. The team explores a soft underlying growth backdrop, slowing wage gains alongside rising prices, and why the Fed remains on hold despite mounting tension within the committee. They also discuss higher oil expectations, pressure on consumers, risks from concentrated momentum and “bubble” conditions in tech, and how markets are navigating a disconnect between strong earnings and fragile macro fundamentals.
RenMac unpacks rising risks in the $2.1T private credit market, where opacity, refinancing pressure, and potential redemption “gates” could tighten financial conditions beneath the surface. The team discusses a speculative turn in equities driven by high beta and momentum, a Fed on hold despite slowing wage growth, and a labor market that remains stable but fragile. They also explore why inflation still matters more than growth for markets, how fiscal support may fade into a headwind, and what credit stress, positioning, and geopolitics signal for a late-cycle environment.
RenMac unpacks a market at new highs despite slowing growth, softening real consumption, and rising real rates acting as a drag beneath the surface. The team debates AI-driven speculative behavior, a fragile consumer distorted by nominal spending and gas prices, housing that likely needs job losses to reset, and why markets are dismissing oil, policy, and Fed risks that haven’t hit earnings yet.
We also welcome you to access “deGraaf: Fading the Fads” report: https://start.renmac.com/4-17-2026-fading-the-fads
Former Fed Vice Chair Rich Clarida joins the RenMac Off-Script team to discuss the evolving Fed reaction function amid a potential transition to a Warsh-led regime and why markets are struggling to price policy. The team breaks down how Middle East developments and energy prices complicate rate cuts, why underlying inflation may be softer than headline data suggests, and how AI-driven productivity could create conflicting pressures on growth, inflation, and rates. They also explore rising fragility in equities, the role of real rates as the key market driver, and why the current rally lacks the breadth and conviction needed for a durable move higher.
Here is the link to Richard Clarida's Spotify : https://open.spotify.com/album/51lgCHoPn3Os1PiCirwidr
RenMac breaks down a noisy March payrolls report that’s sending the wrong signal to the Fed, why markets may be misreading a slowing nominal economy, and how rising real rates—not inflation fears—are driving the recent repricing in risk assets. The team explores the growing disconnect between resilient equities and weakening growth, the role of the Iran-driven oil shock in pushing inflation expectations higher, and why markets keep pushing out the timeline for resolution in the Strait of Hormuz. They also discuss why sentiment hasn’t fully cracked yet, what could trigger a sharper earnings reset in Q2, and why the real opportunity may come after positioning turns more bearish.
Former U.S. National Security official Michael Allen joins the RenMac Off-Script team to discuss escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and why reestablishing control is critical to global energy markets and U.S. strategic credibility. The team breaks down how geopolitical decisions are increasingly driving market outcomes, why oil shocks constrain the Fed’s ability to ease, and how inflation dynamics are taking precedence over growth. They also explore cracks forming in credit and private markets, resilience in U.S. assets versus global stress, and how positioning, sentiment, and gamma dynamics could amplify volatility as markets navigate a fragile late-cycle environment.
RenMac breaks down how quadruple witching and gamma dynamics could amplify near-term volatility as markets reprice a fragile macro environment. The team unpacks an oil-driven supply shock colliding with sticky inflation and softening growth, why central banks don’t look through energy shocks, and the cracks forming in credit and leveraged financials.
Commodity Context founder Rory Johnston joins the RenMac Off-Script team to discuss escalating attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and why a prolonged disruption could remove up to 20% of global oil supply and push oil to $200. The team breaks down why markets may be underpricing the duration of the conflict, how refinery shortages in Asia could ripple through global energy markets, and why Russia may ultimately benefit from the crisis. They also discuss the limits of SPR releases and U.S. shale responses, cracks forming beneath the surface in equities, why gold and defensive sectors aren’t behaving like a typical risk-off environment, and how geopolitics could collide with Fed policy, inflation data, and consumer spending in the weeks ahead.
RenMac breaks down how the Iran conflict and rising oil prices are colliding with an already softening labor market and late-cycle market dynamics. The team discusses the “Hamilton Trigger” for energy, February’s weak jobs report, why the Fed may struggle to cut rates amid supply shocks, and how inflation pressures are shifting the RenMac Market Cycle Clock. The team also explore cracks forming in credit, the vulnerability of crowded momentum trades in tech, housing gridlock as mortgage rates rise, and the political backdrop heading into the midterms.
RenMac breaks down why light tax refunds and narrow consumption growth are challenging the bullish economic narrative, even as AI capex continues to carry investment. The team explores falling Treasury yields despite “good” data, extreme tech momentum reminiscent of 2000, and cracks forming beneath the surface in software and breadth. They also cover late-cycle sector rotation into energy and defensives, housing and AI power politics in Washington, and what next week’s ISM, jobs, and retail sales could mean for growth expectations and market leadership.
RenMac breaks down a market that’s still trending higher but losing momentum, as 2-year yields flirt with cycle lows and leadership rotates between cyclicals and defensives. The team discusses why GDP and inflation prints are being distorted by the shutdown, why slowing wage growth could become the real 2026 risk, and what Trump’s State of the Union, tariffs, and Iran could mean for energy markets. They also tackle whether high yield credit is the canary in the coal mine—and why private equity and private credit may be the bigger vulnerability.
RenMac unpacks cooler inflation that keeps Fed cuts in play just as rising job anxiety and narrow hiring trends point to softer labor conditions beneath the surface. The team debates the growing AI vs. non-AI market bifurcation, fragile tech momentum, tight credit spreads versus private credit stress, tariff maneuvering around chips and Taiwan, and what housing, manufacturing, and D.C. drama signal for markets ahead.
CNBC’s Sara Eisen joins the RenMac Off-Script team to unpack why Big Tech’s AI spend is suddenly spooking markets, cracking momentum trades, and pressuring software stocks. The team breaks down softening labor signals beneath solid GDP growth, Bitcoin’s risk warning, FX stress abroad, the views of the Davos elite and what a potential Kevin Warsh Fed chair could mean for markets.
RenMac unpacks the market fallout from Kevin Warsh emerging as the leading Fed chair candidate, the risks building in parabolic trades like gold and crypto and why sentiment extremes and “hair-trigger” psychology make these trades vulnerable to sharp reversals. The team also breaks down “momentum tech” and sector rotation risks, rising trade and shutdown risks, China-Taiwan tensions and why February seasonality could amplify market crosscurrents.
RenMac digs into the growing political stakes around the Fed chair decision, why global yields—especially in Japan—are reshaping risk appetite, and how improving breadth, regional banks, and small caps point to healthier market internals. The team also breaks down Davos takeaways on trade, rare earths, and China strategy, why good news for the economy doesn’t always translate into good news for the markets, and what to watch next as yields, seasonality, and leadership trends evolve.
RenMac recaps key takeaways from the firm’s 2026 Investor Forum, where stronger near-term data clashes with persistent weakness in housing and labor. Dutta argues inflation pressures continue to ease and deGraaf explains why that cooling inflation, improving breadth, and early strength in consumer discretionary point to a more constructive equity backdrop. Pavlick outlines why affordability is shaping energy, housing, and trade policy in a midterm year, while geopolitical tensions around China, Taiwan, and Venezuela remain underpriced. And the team dives into the Fed chair sweepstakes, debating Powell’s staying power, the risks of politicized dissents, and what true Fed independence means for markets in 2026.
RenMac digs into a complicated January jobs report that dampens near-term rate-cut expectations as Dutta warns that unemployment risks are rising beneath stable headlines, while deGraaf points to an updated Market Cycle Clock, falling yields and trend signals that still support equities. Pavlick outlines growing policy uncertainty around tariffs, housing affordability, and Venezuela, and the team explores why markets continue to shrug off geopolitical risk, how healthcare and biotech are emerging as contrarian opportunities, and what investors should watch for as earnings season and inflation data take center stage.
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RenMac kicks off 2026 with a wide-ranging discussion on the political reality around affordability and inflation, asset allocation myths, and what to watch as ISM and employment data kick off the year. Dutta argues inflation pressures are easing faster than expected across housing, labor, and energy. deGraaf highlights emerging cyclicality beneath soft year-end trading, cautioning that extended moves in commodities and precious metals are entering bubble territory. And Pavlick outlines why tariff relief is increasingly consumer-focused, how Taiwan and China remain a central geopolitical risk, and why midterm dynamics will shape policy more than campaign rhetoric.
RenMac closes out 2025 by reflecting on the year’s biggest macro, market, and political surprises as the team looks ahead to early 2026. deGraaf explains why seasonality and easing inflation remain underappreciated tailwinds, Dutta highlights the growing disconnect between strong GDP prints and weakening income and warns that unemployment — not growth — will drive the next phase of the cycle. And Pavlick breaks down why internal Republican divisions and the unresolved Fed chair search matter heading into midterms. The team also discusses consumer confidence, gold and metals strength, and late-year market positioning.
RenMac breaks down a pivotal week where inflation cooled but global yields surged, suggesting the global bond markets—not just the U.S.— may be driving the next macro chapter. Dutta argues first principles matter on unemployment and inflation, deGraaf explains why the latter contracting is historically a quantifiable tailwind for equities and Pavlick examines China tensions from Panama to Taiwan and the continued political risks surrounding tariffs, defense spending, and Fed leadership.
RenMac welcomes WSJ Correspondent Nick Timiraos to unpack a pivotal week for monetary policy. The team digs into why the January jobs print will determine whether the next cut is “live,” how hawkish dissents shaped Fed communications, and what the Chair succession battle means for policy credibility. deGraaf highlights improving market breadth and surprising strength across banks, metals, and equal-weight indices, while Dutta outlines a deteriorating labor market beneath the surface. And Pavlick breaks down Venezuela strategy, ACA deadlines, defense legislation, and a new outbound investment screen targeting China.
RenMac breaks down why forecasting skill and real-world market instincts are critical for the Fed as it faces rising unemployment and a slowing economy. The team unpacks the administration’s escalating pressure on Maduro, surprising weakness in data-center stocks and fading construction momentum as utility costs climb. Also on tap: market leadership rotation, tariff strategy, Japan’s investment commitments and ACA politics.
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RenMac kicks off Black Friday with a dive into consumer weakness as deGraaf outlines why seasonality is stacked against discretionary stocks, and what recent oversold signals in SPACs, semis, and Bitcoin mean for market trend shifts. Dutta questions the logic of a “hawkish cut” as sentiment, income, and labor data deteriorate, warning the Fed may fall further behind the curve. And Pavlick breaks down rising geopolitical friction from Taiwan to USMCA hearings and evaluates how tariffs, Fed appointments, and ACA subsidies will shape 2026 policy risk. Just in time for the Holiday's, RenMac unveils its swag store, supporting a great cause - check it out at www.renmacmerch.com
RenMac breaks down the market’s ugliest day since 2018 as deGraaf explains the rare “outside reversal” and what oversold signals in Bitcoin, NDX, and speculative tech mean going forward. Dutta argues the Fed is risking a policy mistake as unemployment rises and layoffs spread, and Pavlick outlines the administration’s limited tools — with tariff rollbacks emerging as Trump’s main lever heading into 2026. The team also digs into AI Chip-lomacy, rising utility costs, and early signs of credit strain as Washington heads into Thanksgiving.
RenMac welcomes trade expert Kelly Ann Shaw to unpack a whirlwind week of global trade deals and she explains how the White House is using tariff recalibration to ease consumer pain ahead of the midterms. Dutta rails against the Fed’s “hawkish paralysis” despite cooling data, deGraaf warns markets are flashing bifurcation between tech highs and cyclical lows, and Pavlick tracks how D.C. gridlock, revenue politics, and voter sentiment are reshaping policy risk.
RenMac discusses rising layoff signals and a Fed seemingly blind to softening labor data, Trump’s tariff maneuvering and how SCOTUS and Congress may (or may not) push back, the disconnect between affordability concerns and political rhetoric, and what 52-week highs and lows are signaling about market breadth. They also explore why crypto’s stalling, the shutdown’s drag on economic visibility, and the myth of recession-proof secular bull markets.
RenMac welcomes CNBC’s Mike Santoli to unpack the market’s bullish resilience amid growing macro cracks. The team debates Powell’s “hawkish cut” and its hit to mortgage rates, why housing remains in recession despite Fed easing, and how the AI boom is masking deeper labor and credit stress. deGraaf breaks down the difference between trend and momentum markets, Pavlick tracks Trump’s Asia trade push, rare earth strategy, and the prolonged D.C. shutdown and Dutta warns that slowing incomes and housing could test consumer confidence as markets bet on “just the right amount of wrong.”
RenMac breaks down a cooler-than-expected CPI print that cements the case for further Fed cuts and tempers tariff-fueled inflation fears. Neil dissects how weak rents and slowing jobs are driving disinflation, while Jeff explores the anatomy of bubbles and why gold’s surge is flashing early warning signs. Pavs tracks Trump’s escalating trade brinkmanship ahead of his Asia trip, the politics of aprolonged shutdown, and what to watch in global negotiations as markets juggle seasonality, sentiment, and softening data.
RenMac unpacks rising credit concerns as regional bankswobble and private equity stress builds, contrasting credit risk with last year’s duration scare. Jeff draws upon lessons from Sir Isaac Newton’s South Sea bubble FOMO as today’s liquidity and AI enthusiasm risk repeating history, while Neil flags widening cracks in labor markets and a still-too-tight Fed. Pavs updates the prolonged shutdown, Trump’s trade maneuvers ahead of a Xi meeting, and Washington’s focus on growth over regulation amid geopolitical tension and market froth.
Neil Dutta recently caught up with Michelle Meyer, Chief Economist at the MasterCard Economics Institute. From her perch at MasterCard, Michelle has a front seat to the US consumer. In this episode of the RenMac Legends Podcast, we talk about consumer trends and what's driving the recent strength, the benefits of large private sector data sets given the data fog due to the government shutdown, and a get into a bit of a back and forth on housing as well.Michelle was a former colleague of mine at Bank of America Merrill Lynch under Ethan Harris and then ran the US Econ Team at B of A before heading to MasterCard. Here’s our conversation:
RenMac debates whether the Fed’s planned cuts can offset aslowing labor market and rising unemployment, as markets bet liquidity will keep equities buoyant. The team discusses the deepening government shutdown and its missing “pain point,” the global drivers behind gold’s parabolic surge, andWashington’s growing industrial policy push into rare earths. They close by flagging warning signs in semiconductor sentiment and how shifting cyclical trends could define year-end market moves.
RenMac recaps client takeaways from London and Chicago,weighs the rising odds of a prolonged shutdown with Trump threatening permanent layoffs, and breaks down how tariffs, industrial policy, and Big Pharma deals are reshaping the landscape. The team flags complacency in recession odds,highlights sentiment risks in semis, and explains why healthcare’s pain may be setting up a long-term bottom — all while keeping an eye on discretionary trends, gold, and the Fed’s next move.
RenMac welcomes guest Sam Ro as the team unpacks Feddynamics as Trump appointees push aggressive cuts, rising odds of a government shutdown with threats of federal layoffs, and the latest wave of sectoral tariffs. They debate whether cooling labor markets could paradoxically boostmargins, explore the challenges of measuring productivity amid AI adoption, and assess what narrowing market breadth signals for equities heading into Q4.
RenMac discusses the Fed’s risk-management cut and the political dynamics shaping Powell’s next moves, why the internal divisions on rate cuts matter for markets, and what the latest housing and construction data signal for jobs andgrowth. The team also looks at how small caps and cyclicals are powering breadth in the market, whether momentum can outlast beta, and how tariff politics and regulatory shifts add new wrinkles to the outlook.
RenMac discusses how Fed politics and the upcoming FOMC decision are colliding with market expectations, why shutdown risks remain elevated despite hopes for cooler partisan tensions, and how tariffs with China, Mexico, and India are evolving in unexpected ways. The team also debates whether markets are signaling resilience or simply fibbing in the face of weak jobs data, rising slack, and slowing growth, while investors bet on a productivity boom to justify record highs.
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In Today’s Report: RenMac unpacks a payrolls miss that highlights rising slack in the labor market, why consumer sentiment has flipped from bullish to a bearish contrarian signal, and how government shutdown odds are climbing well above normal. The team also digs into gold’s breakout amid falling yields, the shifting dynamics between semis, small caps, and cyclicals, and the political maneuvering around Fed appointments and trade with Mexico and Canada.
This week on RenMac Off-Script, Steve, Jeff, and Pavlik are joined by special guest Josh Brown, CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management. The team digs into the Fed shakeup after President Trump’s firing of Lisa Cook, the implications for market stability, and whether “norms” still matter in policy. They also discuss the rally in gold, cracks in the labor market, small caps leading equities higher, China’s breakout, and client psychology in a too-good-to-be-true market. Plus: Josh previews the Future Proof Festival, and the crew debates SPAC mania, data center jobs, and what’s on the horizon for September.
RenMac unpacks why Asian and frontier markets are rallying despite tariffs, how Trump’s industrial policy is morphing into “state capitalism,” the risks of politicizing Fed appointments with the Lisa Cook scandal, and why stagflation fears are misplaced as tight credit spreads argue against recession, even as beta keeps breaking down and momentum holds up
RenMac discusses the latest in economic data, including how prices are flattering retail sales; the leap to get the FOMC to support a 50bp move; market leadership from small caps to Asia and the improvement in consumer discretionary relative to staples; and why the government’s stake in Intel is part of a more muscular industrial policy approach to strategic sectors.
RenMac breaks down the sharp rise in effective tariffs and who’s really paying for them, how firms may react to margin pressure with layoffs or price hikes, the macro regime shift that’s pulling markets back to pre-GFC behavior, how game theory is guiding Trump’s Fed chess match and whether or not Waller is already acting as shadow Fed chair
RenMac unpacks the sharp job revisions and weakening prime-age employment suggesting contraction, explores the Fed’s credibility crisis and potential for a September-to-December rate cut cycle, critiques Trump’s strategic positioning on the Fed Chair with Waller as the dark horse and flag narrowing breadth, seasonality risks, and why copper’s news-driven breakout may be a trap.
RenMac talks tariffs and who really bears the burden, Trump’s Fed site-visit and true objective, the narrow market excuse and why it’s more bearish propaganda than insightful utility, and the negative global liquidity story imbedded in JGB normalization and the Yen carry trade unwind.
RenMac discusses the Fed Chair race and Trump’s strategy, NVDA-led chip diplomacy with China and crypto legislation, markets ignoring rising shutdown risks, seasonal patterns shifting the beta/momentum trade, and the unusual dynamic of rising rates and falling currencies.
RenMac’s crew dives into recent tariff announcements, the unpriced probability of a U.S. Govt shutdown in October, Momentum vs Beta, Fed’s stance on interest rates and surface level employment data, Bitcoin’s breakout and vacationing in Medellin in the summer.
RenMac dives into the July 4th weekend with a fresh look at the payroll surprise, Fed expectations, the global PMI paradox, and whether the market can stomach high rates. Neil unpacks sluggish job growth beneath the headline beat, Jeff outlines the capex-driven cyclicals leading the rally, and the crew debates whether PMIs and yield curves have lost their forecasting mojo. Plus: why financials might shine, how real yields shape allocation, and yes—cucumber gin makes another cameo.
RenMac discusses the case to be made for the next Fed chair, the latest on crude oil, the Middle East, July’s seasonal strength, the perceived disconnect between markets and the economy and the reality of that perception, along with a suggested golf handicap adjustment.
RenMac walks through this week’s Fed decision, Iran’s exit ramp, weakness in housing, the Byrd Bath, RMs 20% allocation to commodities, the overbought condition in oil and the momentum in financials.
RenMac Discusses TDS (Tariff Derangement Syndrome) giving way to IDF (Israeli Defense Forces), message out of real-rates, the employment picture, trajectory of the Fed, breakout in precious metals and Tuesday’s Senate bill on stablecoin.
RenMac discusses the latest payroll print and why the Fed may use it to stay on the sidelines, the improvement in small-cap performance, the call between Xi and Trump, and the implications of the fallout between Musk and Trump.
RenMac discuss the latest developments on the tariff front, the administration’s multiple avenues to pursue their trade agenda, the slowing in the labor and housing markets, and the nuance behind the adage of “sell in May and go away.”
RenMac talks government bonds, the divergence in the $ and rates, the global repudiation of government debt, and the implications, Bitcoin’s new high, Trump’s tax bill, and the importance of momentum from this point forward.
RenMac double-clicks on bond market’s message, GOP reconciliation, deGraaf’s Thrust and implications, Gold’s seasonality, energy implications and Knicks vs Celtics
RenMac dives into the latest on tariffs, Powell’s position, the RenMac Retest Rule, Communion suggestions for the new Pope, how the markets and the economy are similar but different, and the definition of a Knickerbocker
RenMac unpacks the latest employment report, the discrepancy between soft and hard data, the importance of considering “what can go right vs wrong” when bearish sentiment is at an extreme, the potential for thawing trade negotiations, the lack of escape velocity in this market but why we’re not pulling the plug on our tactical call, this week’s mail bag, and Jeff’s long-shot Derby play.
RenMac discusses Trump backing off on Powell’s firing, why a slower growth environment could mean a more consensus Fed pick, the latest in trade negotiations, what areas to watch to see how survey-data and hard-data reconcile, what tactical indicators we use to see where the bond market is headed, and a preview of next week’s employment data.
RenMac discusses the importance of the Fed’s independence, the likely options, the dark-cross in the Mag-7 and the implications historically for alpha generation, the latest on trade, the cards other countries may be able to play against the U.S. and why the dollar is an important window into the soul of a nation, plus a special Good Friday Mail-bag.
RenMac walks through the turmoil in bonds, China’s alternatives to creating negotiation leverage, deleveraging vs system risk, increasing recession outlook, tariff miscalculation, rising correlations, and the implications of the 10th best single day on the S&P in 100-years.
RenMac discusses the difference between trade deficits and tariffs, the “escalate to de-escalate” strategy, today’s payroll numbers, how the Fed is thinking about rates, the spike in capitulation measures, and having a mind-set of “what can go right”.
RenMac discusses the upcoming “Liberation Day,” why much of the bad news might already be priced in, the strike price on the respective Trump and Fed put, and how economic conditions were already slowing before Trump was sworn into office, and AI’s mailbag gone wrong.
RenMac unpacks the FOMC meeting, Trump’s conversation with Putin, the deteriorating transportation names, tariff uncertainty, the likelihood of a downside economic surprise in coming months, Schumer’s unwinnable position and how moving averages can help generate alpha.
RenMac discusses the potential strategy behind Schumer’s decision to avoid a government shutdown, the contribution of egg prices to CPI, the deteriorating news flow with the spike in bearish market sentiment, the potential Canadian tariff strategy (or lack thereof), why we’re not playing this as a bear-market and this week’s mailbag regarding market tops.
RenMac dissects the payrolls, the latest tariff moves, the importance of credit indications and the complete unwind of beta as well as this weeks mail-bag.
Renmac talks through the latest policy uncertainty and its history on markets, Neil interprets the latest housing and income data and how today is mirror image of 2022. Steve discusses the March 14th budget deadline and Jeff walks through the beta reversion and what look vulnerable at this point.
RenMac team discusses the potential for government shutdown and the calculus from Ds, the softening data and the risks created by the Fed, the deterioration in Industrials, the soft seasonality with cyclicals, China and this week’s RenMac mailbag.
RenMac crew discusses the difference between a VAT and tariff, this week’s inflation data, our China/HK call, the notable deterioration in internal S&P trends, D’s leverage on DOGE, and this week’s mail-bag: gold.
RenMac discusses implications of the latest employment report, the alignment of market’s message and economic data, Trump’s “Flood the Zone” strategy, what policy uncertainty means for markets, Jeff’s provincial pronunciation and the latest question from RenMac’s Mail-Bag
RenMac opines on tariffs and their economic impact, bar fights and political strategy, unpacking Jevon’s paradox, DeepSeek’s potential genome-sequencing moment for AI, handicapping this week’s confirmations, Fed’s outlook on inflation, the ongoing challenges in semiconductors, and RenMac’s mail-bag.
RenMac discusses the busy week in Washinton, a reminder that the cameras are always on, the importance of oil to growth and inflation, executive order perspective, new highs in SPX and STOXX 600, market internals and the importance of 10yr yields.
RenMac discusses the renewed improvement in consumer price inflation, the term premium as a driver of bond yields, the outperformance of financials and why value should continue to work in Q1, and a quick recap of Trump’s cabinet picks that are testifying on the Hill.
RenMac discusses why the latest jobs number validates the Fed’s recent pivot and why this risks a passive policy tightening, the impact of higher yields on stocks, and President-Elect Trump’s views on territorial control over Greenland.
Jeff, Neil and Steve discuss the latest data from ISM, Johnson’s speakership, the dollar, yields, executive actions and the momentum factor in 2024 and implications for 2025.
RenMac discusses Speaker Johnson's future, the contrast in conference board confidence now versus 2016, lingering continuing clams data, the bounce in equities, the opportunities in Hong Kong and China and next week's data.
RenMac discusses Musk’s government shutdown, the politics behind Powell’s statement, Beta’s vulnerability, the decaying wall-of-worry and the potential for a currency crisis.
RenMac discusses the latest inflation data, why the data may be trending better for bonds than the consensus, how equity factors are set-up, the power vacuum in Syria, what’s behind Trump’s inauguration invite of Xi’s and Chinese equities.
RenMac discusses the latest payroll data, bubbling animal spirits and sentiment, an update to our market cycle clock and pardon implications and precedents.
RenMac discusses the mismatch between housing data and consumer confidence, the motivations behind Trump’s initial tariff salvo, how seasonality and sentiment are likely to play out in equities and the vulnerability created by the weak Russian Ruble.
In early 2021, I had the opportunity to catch up with a good friend of mine through the years, Scott Bessent. Given Scott's new role as incoming Treasury Secretary under President elect Trump, I thought it might be helpful to understand how Scott thinks about and sees the world. Here's our conversation from 2021.
RenMac discusses:
1. Latest developments with Trump appointments
2. The horserace for Treasury secretary
3. Ongoing weakness in labor demand
4. Low bulls in Treasuries are bullish
5. Impact of political appointments on specific sectors
RenMac discusses latest inflation data and the impact on the Fed, what labor market’s are telling us about trajectory, Latest Trump nominations, Bitcoin Breakout, Bullish cyclical call stands in stark contrast to weak semiconductors.
Jeff, Neil, and Steve discuss:
1. Expectations between now and election
2. Accuracy of betting markets in defense of price discovery
3. The big losers
4. Path of unified government
5. Inflation expectations
6. Cyclical trade and market’s message
7. Labor market conditions
8. Powell’s future
9. Importance of personnel to discern direction forward
RenMac talks about the payroll surprise, the importance of NC and PA to Trump and Harris, elevated equity volatility and quiescent credit spreads and the Fed’s path into year’s end
RenMac discusses the process of price discovery in the political prediction markets, the current state of the horserace, the outlook for employment, why Kevin Warsh is off-base in his criticism of the Fed’s September decision, and market seasonality.
RenMac discusses this week’s data, the prospects of a shadow Fed Chair, the latest polls and candidates’ performance, China and how the overbought condition in yields tilts us toward cyclicality.
RenMac discusses:
1. The latest shift in polls in the continued razor-thin election.
2. The latest inflation data and how the sequence of jobs and inflation is impacting the Fed’s trajectory.
3. The overbought condition in yields and the marginal benefit it should have for cyclicals vs defensive names.
4. The bullish spread between equity volatility (VIX) and corporate credit
5. Bitcoin Commercial Hedger positioning.
RenMac discusses the latest payroll surprise, the impact Helene is having on polling, China’s historic market strength, the improvement of cyclicals vs defensives, political October surprises and the upcoming inflation data.
Neil cameos from Oktoberfest while Steve and Jeff discuss the equity strength in China, Kamala’s border visit, the empty promises made by both camps prior to elections and the marginal improvement in bitcoin.
RenMac discusses the expected 50bps rate cut, implications for future cuts, the trajectory of the data going forward, the market impact and the latest polling around battleground states.
RenMac discusses why 50bps makes the most sense, the impact the debate is likely to have on the election, the changes in capital requirements at banks, and some bright spots in energy and silver.
RenMac discusses the weak August employment report, why the next decision really is less about consensus and more about what Powell thinks, a preview of the Trump/Harris debate, and the defensive nature in the equity markets.
With Neil and Steve on the beach, Jeff and Kevin walk through the market’s message, where the strength and weakness are building and fading, and what it means for the remainder of the year. The team dives deeper into the historical reactions seen by sectors and industries after the Fed’s first rate-cut in a cycle. Happy Labor Day weekend.
The RenMac Team discusses the DNC and latest in the general election campaign, the folly of price controls, the sharp downward revision to payroll employment and what it means for the Fed ahead of Jackson Hole, the recent breakout in gold, balance sheet versus income recession, and how tight policy is based on the gap between two-year yields and the Federal Funds Rate.
RenMac discusses the current sensitive state of markets and the possible impacts of the upcoming decision on rate cuts, Kamala’s potential economic policies, the DNC, and the influence of the presidential election on downballot races, and what next week’s data (as well as Jackson Hole) could mean for markets going forward.
RenMac discusses initial jobless claims, the baseline for rate cuts, and the growing risk of complacency from the Fed and market participants, Kamala’s VP pick (why wasn’t it Shapiro?) and the changing presidential odds, the Nikkei and the liquidity picture, as well as important data on deck for next week.
RenMac discusses Harris’s candidacy and her potential picks for Vice President, GDP, inflation data, and what they mean for the Fed’s upcoming rate cuts, dark crosses in yields (why is the two-year yield down?), oversold conditions throughout the market, and important political and economic information to come next week.
RenMac discusses the possibility and potential implications of Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race, his likely replacement (will Democrats bypass Harris?), when and how many times the Fed will cut rates, small cap versus large cap, what recent and upcoming data can show about markets, and the future of the semiconductor trade.
RenMac discusses Biden’s struggles and how the Democrats will move forward, Trump’s potential picks for Vice President (is Nikki Haley his best option?), weaker inflation and the potential for a September rate cut, expectations for the retail and auto sectors, and the disconnect between the three Russell indices.
Guy Berger is someone I had the good fortune of overlapping with at Bank of America. Over the years, Guy has become my go-to resource for all questions on the labor market. After many years as the Principal Economist at LinkedIn, he is now the Director of Research at the Burning Glass Institute, a research outfit focusing on labor market trends.
Here, we go through many of the hot topics on the labor market as it pertains to business/market economics: the gap between the Household and Establishment Survey, how important are revisions to the data, what’s the impact of immigration on the employment data, and much more.
We hope you enjoy our conversation.
Bullish Sentiment Thru the Ages
Jeff deGraaf talks with Walt Deemer about the elevated bullish sentiment, stories from the nifty-fifty, differentiating good investments vs good companies, the importance of expectations vs narratives, and how it applies today. Enjoy the Holiday Weekend.
RenMac discusses payrolls and what this means for the Fed in lieu of next week’s core inflation number, what the betting markets are telling us about Kamala Harris’ role on the presidential ticket, how performance in the first half of the year affects the second half, and cyclicality in the current market.
RenMac discusses the options for Democrats to replace Biden following the debate, how the stock market has reacted to the presidential polls, why Neil thinks the balance of risk suggests that the Fed could make a minor monetary mistake by not cutting in September, the symptoms of liquidity and what the movement in Bitcoin and IPOs might suggest, and why the first two weeks of July suggest strong seasonality from a historical standpoint.
RenMac discusses why housing is hurting, why economic growth in 2024 will be worse than 2023, how the distribution of risks has shifted for the Fed, how this not a momentum market, the potential outside reversal in Nvidia, the positive correlation between banks and yields, and the upcoming presidential debate dynamics.
RenMac discusses whether global election trends will impact the U.S., the significantly different U.S. presidential election forecasts between 538 and the Economist, the improving inflation picture, why admission by omission suggests a September interest rate cut is likely, how oversold conditions are creating opportunities, and why things may be setting up nicely for a soft landing.
RenMac discusses the latest payroll print, the political impact of the Trump conviction one week later, the impact of lower yields, the global strength of utilities, and the big bull turn in China.
RenMac discusses the political impact of the Trump conviction, how growth isn’t getting away from the Fed, sentiment and the post momentum hang-over industries, and trends vs momentum in China.
RenMac discusses why the Nvidia phenomenon may have overshadowed some more broader concerns, why the bond market was down on the PMI print, why the consensus is onsides now on growth, a high alert for housing, capitulation suggests softness in equities for 2024, little change in polls but big change in betting markets in 2024 presidential race.
RenMac discusses how Biden agreed to debate on his terms, the encouraging inflation print, how much of Biden’s billions have been spent and what Trump could do with them, improving beta vs. average momentum, the peak in short rates, strong election year seasonality, and why China is looking like the U.S. in 2009.
RenMac discusses how the FDIC fallout may play out next week, the improvement in small banks, the consumer credit conundrum, the short rate risk/reward scenario, and the consumer momentum in China.
RenMac discusses the economic data dump this week, why the realized inflation data will be important, Powell’s case for weaker inflation, why the voters remain sour on the economy, whether Johnson will be removed as speaker now or after November, and the outlook for Chinese growth.
RenMac discusses the low GDP and high inflation reports, how volatile trade figured may have skewed the data to the downside, why the consensus is probably right about growth, the mean reversion in the battleground state polls, why the Supreme Court may delay the federal cases against Trump, how price may be driving sentiment, why you want to be long in the summer months in a presidential election year, what is driving the increase in the 10yr yields, and the relationship between Bitcoin and the NASDAQ.
Jeff goes solo off-script to talk about the recent equity weakness, the things he looks for to call a tactical bottom and where we stand currently.
RenMac discusses the implications of the global gold rush led by central banks; why the latest inflation report still points to when, not if the Fed cuts interest rates; how a cooling labor market means consumers could struggle to absorb higher inflation; the risks Powell & Co. face in deciding to do (or not do); why the adage “sell in May and go away” doesn’t work; and how to take advantage of the summer trading months in a presidential election year.
RenMac discusses the bullish jobs number, why it might not keep the Fed from cutting in June, how it might send neutral rates higher, why No Labels ended up with no candidate and who benefits, how rising geopolitical risks are raising prices at the pump for voters, the impact of broader market participation, and why manufacturing is picking up.
RenMac discusses Fed Governor Waller’s comments, context, and contrast with Powell; reconciling GDI and GDP; Biden’s bump in the Bloomberg battleground state poll, and some evidence of the momentum trade unwinding.
RenMac discusses how Michigan may determine the 2024 presidential outcome and how it is driving Biden’s EV policies, why the six months of progress on inflation is outweighing the previous two months of setbacks for Powell & Co., June cut looking likely, the productivity paradox and how it takes time to realize the gains from AI, why a partial gov’t shutdown on Monday isn’t likely to happen, why the expansion of internal highs suggests a bull market, and how energy and materials are performing better on an absolute basis.
For nearly three decades, Ethan Harris was a fixture on Wall Street. After a stint at the New York Fed, Ethan went to Lehman Brothers where he served as the firm’s Chief US Economist. I had the good fortune of working for and learning from Ethan during his time as Head of Global Economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, from where he retired last year.Ethan is a wealth of knowledge, not only for his insights on the economy and Fed watching – but we also get into detail on how he approaches the role of a Wall Street economist and how that compares to the role of an academic. How to separate the noise from signal in the economic data and how to pick your spots against the consensus. To me, he’s set the standard for those that have come after him in the business.
Neil and Steve welcome Kevin to the podcast to discuss Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s desire to replace Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the House vote to put TikTok on the clock, how China might retaliate against U.S. companies, what copper and commodities are saying, how the U.S. economic outperformance is benefiting Mexico and Canada, and why soft retail sales may not derail the overall solid US consumer story.
RenMac discusses how the payroll print is bullish for the soft-landing camp, why you should keep watching the unemployment number, how both parties saw what they wanted to in Biden’s SOTU, the takeaways from Powell’s testimony, why there is still momentum in the market, how gold is breaking out, and why you should be careful with sentiment.
RenMac discusses the relief rally in response to inflation data coming in as expected, why a stronger economy doesn’t linearly map to inflation, how a May Fed cut could be underpriced, another gov’t can-kick, how Michigan sent warning signs to both candidates, whether Haley will still in after Super Tuesday, the firmness of global indices, and relative weakness in utilities and staples.
Howard joins Jeff and Steve to discuss the depressing U.S. debt outlook from the CBO, how the transformation of Japan’s economy is impacting global markets, the pace of the Fed slowing quantitative tightening, the need to monitor the impact of 10yr yields on equities, why a lower level of bank reserves is an important indicator, why one should be careful of the Nvidia impact on the broader market moving forward, how contraction can lead to vulnerability, why biotech may present better buying opportunities than tech, and the politics behind the upcoming Republican primary in SC and the Democrat primary in MI.
RenMac discusses the volatility around the recent economic data, moderating inflation expectations, the correlation between air freight and industrial production, the crowded calendar that awaits Congress when it returns, why Neil wasn’t impressed with his Moscow grocery experience, what is and is not a momentum market, and whether bond yields are a better buy now or later.
RenMac discusses the good, bad, and ugly for Biden in the Special Counsel report, Neil’s affinity for pop culture, how stronger productivity may be keeping inflation under control, why China may be so bad that it is good, the limited U.S. exposure to FX risk from China, and whether presidential race odds are influencing the S&P.
RenMac discusses why the flukey payroll report may reduce the Fed’s sense of urgency, why the weather mattered in January, how a boost in productivity may also be a boost to earnings, how employment is more of a byproduct of a strong economy than a cause, whether the disconnect between economists and voters on the Biden economy is narrowing, why the Jan. 6th trial may be the one that could move voters, polling context, why Michigan matters, and whether consolidation can be contained.
RenMac discusses Nikki Haley’s prospects, Trump’s Veep-stakes, how voters are viewing an improving economy, the path of least resistance, why Tesla is starting to crack, whether homebuilders should be worried, how pockets of tech options could be concerning, and why Chinese tech sentiment may be setting up nicely.
RenMac discusses why Nikki Haley’s path to the presidency beyond NH is not a bright one, how better than expected retail sales and residential housing figures suggest a strong economic outlook, the great debate over when and how much the Fed will cut interest rates, why Fed Governor Waller is not riding the team transitory train, why the weakness in materials is good news not bad news, and why conditions are looking good for small caps.
RenMac discusses why markets shrugged off the latest CPI miss, how the Fed places more emphasis on the PCE, why data may be driving the Fed more than politics, why U.S. bonds are more bullish than elsewhere, how more states resemble IA than NH in the GOP Primary, the importance of Taiwan’s presidential election, the parallels between the 1970s and today, and SEC chair Gary Gensler’s reluctant Bitcoin ETF approval.
RenMac discusses why the latest payroll print points to productivity gains, why 3-to-4 rate cuts are more likely than 6, how geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Taiwan could upend the 2024 economic outlook, global market breakouts, and the broadening of market gains beyond the magnificent 7.
Renmac discusses how dollar weakness contributes to global growth, the history of 8-consecutive weeks of S&P gains, the latest in the primary ballot battle, excessive inflows and the busy week/month ahead. Happy New Year.
RenMac discusses how the latest PCE print supports a March Fed cut but why it may not go as far as the market is pricing, whether animal spirits can lead to irrational exuberance, why trash is outperforming treasure, why the U.S. Supreme Court may reach a different decision than the CO Supreme Court regarding Trump’s eligibility.
RenMac discusses the escape velocity in equities, Powell’s press conference, why a March cut is looking more likely, who wore the boldest sweater on TV, why the rate of inflation is declining despite rather than b/c of the Inflation Reduction Act, the breakout in banks and REITs, and frothy animal spirits.
RenMac discusses how the latest jobs print shows a stabilizing workforce, why the disinflation process is more entrenched now, the contraction in 2-year yields and BBB spreads, how the latest Republican presidential debate did little to change the race, the link between aid to Ukraine’s border and the southern border, and why ’95 might be the best comparable for the Fed.
RenMac discusses the latest inflation data, why you should watch Waller, ’95 vs. ’98 debate, the proverbial “everybody” problem, the gap between strategists and the spot price, tis the seasonality, Santos precedent, and Neil riffs w/ disdain on GOP mega donors.
Jeff and Steve discuss Neil’s holiday traditions, the impact of a third-party presidential candidate, why Republicans feel better about their chances to take the Senate, yield dependency, why healthcare might be well- positioned for next year.
RenMac discusses why the latest inflation data reinforces an extended pause, the disinflation pipeline, why real yields are a good predictor of nominal rate markets, capitulation vs. correction, why overbought isn’t necessarily a bad thing, why Taiwan looms large over Biden-Xi meetings, and how Congress passed a stopgap but punted on all the difficult decisions.
RenMac discusses what Tuesday’s election results mean for next year, the Republican debates, the emergence of new third-party presidential candidates, why yields are coming down and how that is impacting equities, how the usually boring treasury auctions are becoming more interesting, why the latest unemployment report may impact the Fed by opening the door to cuts, and whether Treasury and the Fed are losing control over the fiscal situation.
RenMac discusses how the soft payroll print will impact the Fed, how the recent strikes may have impacted the data, why good things happened to housing, the anti-momentum trade heading into yearend, the importance of Nov. 17th to the gov’t shutdown, and Biden-Xi’s APEC meeting, and why Nikki Haley may have a low ceiling in the GOP primary.
RenMac discusses why Gavin Newsom is meeting with Xi Jinping, why “Mike Johnson” is a leading Google search, the momentum behind 3Q GDP, why the Fed is more forecast vs data dependent, how fiscal stimulus is likely to pressure yields, the deteriorating breadth in equities in the face of strong seasonality.
RenMac discusses Powell’s speech on the outlook, why the Fed is probably done for 2023 but why the economy is not, why builders might be a buy despite elevated rates and why gold is a sell despite high geopolitical tensions, and the latest in Jim Jordan’s ongoing fight to become Speaker of the House.
RenMac discuss the latest political drama around the House Speakership race, the prospect of an acting Speaker working with Democrats, why the upside surprise in inflation this week does not change the Fed’s near-term calculus, why it is not worth using geopolitical events as a basis for a market call, and why the rise in yields is providing an alternative to stocks.
The RenMac team discusses the upside surprise in payrolls, why the bears are grasping at straws, how the UAW strike could impact future prints, the increased yield sensitivity of sectors, how McCarthy’s ouster adds to the D.C. drama, the seasonal impact on markets, and how tactical conditions are providing an opportunity for the bulls.
The RenMac team discusses why hiking is harder for the Fed, the danger of focusing on headlines rather than data, cracks in gold, well-behaved BBB spreads, why a rally without beta is troublesome, more motion than progress on avoiding a gov’t shutdown, and the politics of replacement regarding the Senate seats for Feinstein and Menendez.
The RenMac team discusses why the gov’t shutdown could last a while, why the market reaction was more surprising than the Fed’s decision to erase cuts for next year, why the Fed is unlikely to hike in December either, why the 2-year yield and BBB spread usually respond Fed but not this time, not yet oversold in equities, close to improving seasonality, and why Trump is going to the MI and not the second GOP debate.
The RenMac team discusses the odds and economic impact (or lack thereof) of a gov’t shutdown, why not all inflation data is created equal, whether short-term soft-landing enthusiasm now could lead to inflationary consequences later, why reduced volatility in line with credit conditions, intra-market correlation, and the decline in Bitcoin..
Also, please join us Monday at 11am for a call with former World Bank President David Malpass. CLICK HERE to Register
The RenMac team discusses recent polling around Biden’s age, Nikki Haley’s chances, the anecdotal wage stories, responding to capital conditions, what the firming energy story is saying, and Neil’s recession odds for next year.
Neil and Steve digest the economic data dump, why August may have been a peculiar month that understated jobs, why cyclicals are looking stronger, why the Fed may still be in the woods, the disconnect between data and voter perceptions of Bidenomics, the September UAW strike, why Mitch McConnell matters, 2024 politics and the Fed.
RenMac discusses Trump’s GA mugshot strategy, Neil’s opinion on the Indian guy and gal in the Republican primary, why Bullard sounds like Neil on the U.S. economic outlook, BBB-spreads not following the breakout script, cracks in consumer discretionary could be causing top-formations, previewing Powell at Jackson Hole, and Putin’s power move with the Prigozhin explosion.
RenMac discusses the breakout in 10-year yields, why Neil thinks the Fed is still offsides on growth, the political impact (or lack thereof) of the latest Trump indictment, first oversold S&P condition since last fall, early internal indications of an uptrends, and the early expansion in the put/call ratio.
Neil and Steve discuss the Biden administration’s actions towards China, how the Fed might be getting sucked into the soft-landing story, and whether the Fed still has more work to do in the context of an above-trend growth economy.
RenMac discusses why the latest payroll print will not provide comfort to the Fed, why employment is slowing as the economy is ramping up, why China charts are looking better than their economic reports, whether the 2024 election will resemble 2020 or 2016, how Manchin’s third-party threat could help rather than hurt Biden-s re-election, the politics surrounding the Fitch downgrade, and the Japanese yen trade following the BoJ pivot.
RenMac discusses the bullish GDP data, receding recession risk, knowing what you don’t know, the low odds of pulling off two soft-landings, how relying on doubtful data and rigidity has led to capitulation, precision vs. accuracy, Mitch McConnell’s health, the increased impeachment inquiry odds following the Hunter Biden plea deal collapse, why extreme beta is more likely to be a liability than in asset, and keeping an eye on the yen.
RenMac discusses how to adjust the different economic outlook scenarios based on recent data, why a third-party candidate would pull more votes away from Biden, how Biden’s green push is costing him the support of autoworkers (and Springsteen a song), and the risks of betting on beta.
RenMac discusses how the latest inflation report will take pressure off the Fed and increases the odds of a soft landing, why bull steepening is more of a recession signal than an inverted yield curve, why markets reacted accordingly, whether Bidenomics will help or hurt inflation and Biden’s re-election effort.
Renmac discuss why our elevated yield impact model and seasonality favors keeping some dry powder, but not the same type found in the White House this week. How cocaine-gate is overshadowing the “Bidenomics” push? Why the latest payroll print shows no signs of recession and is unlikely to prevent the Fed from hiking two more times this year? All in today’s episode.
The RenMac team discusses Neil’s ten-year anniversary trip and why he feels there will be no recession, the durable strength of the consumer, why the Fed may not deliver the shock needed for the bears, why cyclicals are consistent with a bull market, and the odd situation in Russia.
The RenMac team discusses Powell’s performance before lawmakers, why the Fed may be offsides on housing and economic growth, data still supporting a housing trifecta, how a presidential election could complicate future Fed moves, the politics of the Hunter Biden plea deal, and why utilities and BBB spreads are supporting a bullish outlook.
The RenMac team discusses the market response to the Fed pause, why the risk for the Fed is taking their feet off the brakes too soon, receding recession risk, contained credit spreads, and the growing threat of a September spending shutdown in Congress.
The RenMac team discusses the labor market, the gravitation towards beta, looking for contraction in BBB spreads, the growing Republican rift on defense spending, the politics and the precedent of the latest Trump indictment, market incrementalism towards cyclicality.
The RenMac team discusses whether the strong payrolls number will impact the Fed, why a June skip is still likely, the winners and losers of the debt limit debate, why semiconductors are a winner in the stock market, and bullish conditions in the market cycle clock for a new month.
The RenMac team discusses the debt limit calendar, why the onus is on the growth bears to justify their position, why housing could be more important moving forward, noncompliant credit markets, how the consensus consistently underestimates job growth, the weakness in China, and the Ron DeSantis campaign launch.
RenMac discusses why it’s increasingly likely a debt limit agreement is complete before the June 1 deadline, the entry of Florida Governor DeSantis in the 2024 race for the White House, the strong economic data over the last week and why the consensus is still offsides, and the breakout in software at the expense of materials.
RenMac discusses the improving odds around a debt limit deal, how the latest inflation data bolsters the chances for a Fed pause this summer, the flukiness in jobless claims because of Massachusetts, why complaining about lack of breadth is really an excuse for underperformance, and gift ideas for Mother’s Day.
The RenMac team discusses the latest jobs blowout, why the Fed is less likely to cut now, the importance of nominal incomes, how the banking consternation is not causing a bigger market reaction, why breadth improves to match the market but not the other way around, little change in the put/call ratios, and the latest on the debt limit drama.
The RenMac team discusses the view from London, the mixed message from breadth and international equities, strength in the housing market, the drag on inventories in 1Q23, why the 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be the rematch that few people want, and how a recession could be the bears worst nightmare.
The RenMac team discusses Philadelphia vs. the Empire economic data, how crude oil and yields are exhibiting downtrend characteristics, whether the Fed’s next move after a pause would be a hike or a cut, homebuilder optimism, Neil’s love of nuance, the latest act in the D.C. debt limit drama, why Biden is betting on a rematch with Trump, and a potential bounce for banks.
The RenMac Team is joined by financials/payments analyst Howard Mason to discuss the turmoil in the banking industry, what the latest data means for the Fed’s future moves (or lack thereof), the EPA’s aspirational EV emissions proposal, the declining relevancy of M2, and the ebullience in equities.
RenMac discusses why the March employment report is a win for the soft-landing bulls, the Fed’s wait and see approach with a tightening bias, the outperformance of global equities, the intrinsic value of gold, the Taiwanese president’s “transit” trip to the US, and Xi’s diplomatic push into OPEC.
The RenMac team discusses Neil’s bourbon trail trip, Trump indictment politics, the Fed’s failure to prevent the collapse of SVB, where is San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, why Powell’s next move is still more likely a hike after skipping May, the importance of housing, tech breaking out, why seasonality and sentiment are still trending in the right direction.
Blurb The RenMac Team discusses the Fed’s 25 bps move, how one’s view of a banking crisis determines their outlook on future interest decisions, the politics of a pending Trump indictment, whether the Fed’s tolerance for inflation is higher now, why technology is breaking out, and whether REITs are so bad they’re good.
The RenMac team discusses the impact of SVB collapse on the banking industry, how it is becoming politicized, whether SVB was a feature or bug of the Fed’s actions, why the Fed is likely to go 25 bps next week, deposit circularity, the befuddling bitcoin bounce, cyclicals performing better than defensives, and big tech breaking out.
The RenMac team discusses the latest payroll print, why the Fed’s work is not done, the higher bar for not going 50bps, why neutral needs to be higher, Biden’s revival of the Build Back Better budget request and why it is DOA with a Republican House, industrials continue to perform, discretionary is still intact, losing defensives like utilities and stapes, and banks are oversold.
The RenMac team discusses the improvement in global manufacturing and services PMIs, why a need to rebuild inventories could lead to strong manufacturing growth, how the rest of the world is following the early cycle script, the value vs. values debate regarding ESG on the Hill, the Supreme Court’s skepticism over Biden’s student loan relief plan, why the market cycle clock is in the bullish direction, the deterioration in defensives like health care, and reasons to get psyched for cyclicality.
The RenMac team discusses the Ukraine anniversary, China’s increasing role in the conflict, Dow theory and the movement of averages for tomorrow, whether oversold conditions can hold, the return of NPV, how conditions could shift towards value, and why active could benefit over passive moving forward.
The RenMac team discusses the new CBO debt limit “X-date” forecast, how Kevin McCarthy can use his Taiwan trip as leverage to get spending concessions from Biden, why the economic data is increasing the odds of the Fed raising interest rates closer to 6% this year, the post-breakout pause, improving credit conditions, and rate resiliency.
The RenMac team discusses Biden’s State of the Union address, 2024 implications, why the Fed is likely to maintain its higher-for-longer approach to interest rates, housing and Europe looking good despite expectations, why tech remains tricky outside of semis, and how good economic news next week might be bad for bonds.
The RenMac Team discusses China flying balloons over Montana, why the huge payroll number makes Powell look offsides, an optimistic outlook for autos, market haters on social media, the breadth thrust and why there is beauty in simplicity, and why the trend is moving in the bullish direction.
RenMac discusses the 4th quarter GDP numbers, the unlikeliness of a near-term recession, the confirming indications from equities, the latest on the debt limit and next week’s important data.
The RenMac team discusses the debt limit debate, the poor December economic data, why the narrative may still be moving in a positive direction moving forward, the tilt towards cyclicality, the impact of global green subsidies, the market pricing in 25bps hikes to get 5%, and market purgatory levels.
The RenMac team discusses the DOJ’s classification conundrum, the latest consumer price inflation print, why the soft landing thesis might only be temporary, the improvement of discretionary against staples, and early momentum indicators.
The RenMac team discusses the latest in the speaker spectacle in the House, the latest payroll print, how the lower unemployment rate will make it harder to slow wage increases and alter the Fed’s trajectory, no momentum despite the Market Cycle Clock being in the bullish zone, cyclicals remain in the leadership position, why the government may be more of a tailwind to consumers, and the importance of 3700 number for the S&P 500.
The RenMac team discusses Trump’s decline and DeSantis’s rise amongst Rs in the polls, Congress kicking the gov’t funding can to next week, the Fed saying that recession is more likely next year, Neil’s skepticism that economic growth will slow significantly in the short-term, improving consumer discretionary conditions, bear market prevalence in the S&P, and why Boeing could be an economic growth engine next year.
The RenMac Team discuss whether the new jobs claims data will impact the Fed’s moves, how seasonality impacts unemployment, stronger than expected PPI data, why Sinema said sayonara to the Democratic Party, Republican candidate quality costs them GA again, contrarian discretionary opportunity, and moderating sentiment despite the recent rally.
The RenMac team discusses Powell’s speech, how the payroll report threw a gut-punch into the soft-landing story, why we’re still searching for a slowdown in the economy, the expansion in the consumer discretionary sector, why the bear market may not be over, Congress shifting to omnibus now that rail strike has been averted, the GA Senate race odds, and distortion and deterioration in the crypto markets.
The RenMac team discusses the implications of a divided government, why the economy might not be slowing as fast as some policymakers would prefer, why a weakening dollar could strengthen economic growth, what the trajectory of BBB spreads is saying, the puzzling breakout of industrials, and the importance of consumer discretionary to bull markets.
The RenMac team discusses the election results, whether Trump will back out of his Tuesday announcement, Ron DeSantis R nominee prospects surging, the better-than-expected CPI report, how the Fed will respond, why laggards could lead leaders, and how Thursday lit the market match.
The RenMac team discusses the latest payroll print and why it will not impact the Fed’s outlook, why the bigger risk may be the Fed underdoing it, whether Rs will have a good night or a great night, whether Biden’s speech on democracy may not resonate with voters concerned about the economy, what a divided Congress would mean for the Fed, why Powell is being set up to be the fall guy, energy, industrials, and financials relative strength, and the S&P’s response to both overbought and oversold positions.
The RenMac team discusses the Republican resurgence in polls and betting markets, some concerns in the latest GDP report and how it might impact the Fed’s steps next year, why residential investment might not be as much of a drag moving forward, resetting the market to higher interest rates, the sentiment/seasonality mix, FANG pains, and the disconnect between what should be happening versus what is happening.
The RenMac team discusses the political winds shifting in favor of Rs ahead of the midterms, how the sluggish economy is impacting the housing market, the Fed’s eventual offramp away from 75bps but maybe not 50bps, why industrials are looking good on a relative basis, and the seasonal upside opportunity vs. skeptical sentiment.
The RenMac team discusses the higher-than-expected inflation print, why the Fed will have to wait longer before pivoting, how betting markets are pricing in a higher chance of Rs winning the House and Senate, the greater odds of a GA Senate runoff, whether one day’s market reaction is the start of a broader trend, and how regional banks are looking more interesting.
The RenMac team discusses why the payroll report will not change the Fed’s direction, why Powell believes higher unemployment is needed to lower inflation, taking the over on the Fed fund futures rate, October surprises impacting midterms with OPEC production cuts and Herschel Walker allegations, why seasonality is skewing towards equities, and why the decline in bond pricing may remain an issue in 2023.
nMac talks about sentiment, it’s faults and features, what could go right, the valuation problem, why bonds are attractive, next week’s jobs number, and the latest on government spending bill.
Renmac discusses the Fed’s neutral rate, persistent strength in employment, Neil’s personal microcosm of housing, the potential for a government shutdown, real rates and the implicit message behind Biden’s persistent gaffs.
RenMac highlights Larry Sabato’s higher than consensus’ odds of R’s taking the Senate, the 100 vs 75bps debate, implications of $FDX news, relative performance of discretionary vs staples, importance of claims data, an historical indication of peaking 10yr yields and Pavlick’s travel suspiciously coinciding w/ PSU schedule.
The RenMac team discusses Queen Elizabeth’s legacy, why Biden is leaving Trump’s China tariffs in place, markets pricing in 150bps over the next three Fed meetings, labor market remaining hot, why the market cycle clock is tilting bullish, and how Rs are looking good to take the House but things are looking better for Ds to hold on to the Senate.
The RenMac team discusses how the U.S. economy is not slowing down and what that means for the Fed moving forward, Biden’s political speech aimed at motivating the Democratic base ahead of the midterms, why the student loan aid announcement may not come to fruition, how companies may be overpaying for workers based on productivity levels, why the June low has a high probability of being the low for the cycle, and whether growing bearish sentiment is warranted.
Neil and Jeff talk about the wages, housing, market momentum, trouble with forward guidance and the upcoming Fed meeting.
The RenMac team discusses Neil’s recent trip to Vegas, Democrats improved political standing, Bullard’s motives and message, how this housing recession is different, momentum signals in the market, and the challenge in looking for sector leadership.
Biden’s 0% inflation victory lap, better/worse vs good/bad, momentum is unusually strong and bullish, how the Mar Largo raid increases odds of Trump candidacy, and the decline productivity from Neil’s trip to Vegas.
The RenMac team discusses how the employment report cements a 75 bps move for the Fed and increases the odds of a hard landing, why the short-term curve should be steeper, whether jobs are a lagging indicator, recent political winds blowing in favor of Democrats, how the contraction in rates is impacting equities, and sentiment’s relationship with momentum and the impact on trend.
The RenMac team discusses how Schumer outmaneuvered McConnell on the reconciliation package, Powell’s pivot to a pause vs. cut, SPX 20-day high signal, markets misreading the Fed, futures suggesting a kink in the curve, a slow bleed recession on the horizon, and debating the distinction between a slowdown and a recession.
The RenMac team discusses Jeff’s desire for more tattoos, Biden’s climate emergency non-declaration, the political impact of Biden getting COVID, how the European blowback is starting to impact the U.S., why markets might be wrong about the Fed’s reaction function, the market rally this past week, why we continue to prefer defensives over cyclicals, and why the ECB is more likely to make a policy mistake than the Fed.
The RenMac team discusses a new record-high inflation report and whether 100bps is more likely, Powell latching to lagging indicators, is core services next, new Fed members impact on future rate decisions, markets looking beyond inflation to a recession, Biden's Saudi oil boost ask, and Manchin rules out tax hikes and climate bills in latest BBB talks.
The RenMac team discusses the latest jobs report and why it might embolden the Fed to go 75bps, whether employment is the best indicator of a potential recession, yield curve peaking, tightening credit conditions, why the inflation rate may be the new Fed put as opposed to the stock market, Scuhmer’s resurrection of Ds’ reconciliation bill, and Biden’s battles with billionaires over his energy and economic policies.
The RenMac team discusses Powell’s preference for a recession rather than an inflation policy mistake, the Fed’s preferred PCE measure running much lower than CPI, reading the reaction function of the Fed, the potential for a political pause or a lower rate hike pre-Midterm, a Supreme Court setback for ESG investors, handicapping the 2022 midterms, and why healthcare remains a good defensive play.
The RenMac team discusses if the Fed is cherry picking data, moderating growth, gas tax politics and prospects, keying in on core PCE, and Powell dismissing Russian invasion as the main driver of inflation.
Jeff, Neil and Steve discuss the 75bps move as some signs of easing inflation present themselves. The team also discusses the political challenges of inflation, the upcoming Humphrey Hawkins Testimony, market’s message regarding inflation and the lack of capitulative signals in the market.
Neil and Steve discuss the latest CPI number, what Powell may say and not say next week, the inverse correlation between Biden’s approval ratings and inflation, and the politics of the Jan. 6th hearings.
The RenMac Team discusses the good news in the flattening unemployment rate, evidence building for the Fed to back off its 50bps pace, Yellen’s inflation omission admission, an improving global economic situation, defining peak inflation, and how the political die is likely cast ahead of November .
RenMac’s team discusses the Fed’s pivot, the hard or soft landing of the economy, the SPX bear market, the consistency in the Taiwan-Biden-gaffe, stubborn EPS revisions, Trump’s message resonating more with Republican voters than he is, the hard versus soft landing debate in the economy and markets, and Neil enters the housing supply pool and a shout-out thanks to our veterans.
RenMac discusses why the data doesn’t support recession narrative, the low but rising level of unemployment claims, the risk of a dovish policy pivot later this year, how healthcare and energy perform post-peak inflation, and why the party primary results will impact the 2022 and 2024 elections.
RenMac crew discusses the inflation data, the historical impact of peak inflation on markets and sectors, a first-hand look at the baby shortage formula and the impact on midterms.
The RenMac team discusses April’s “goldilocks” employment report, why wage growth will moderate, how Powell’s comments this week increase the chance of a soft landing, energy industry and SPR politics, market turmoil and what to watch next week.
The RenMac team discusses the latest GDP report, healthy customer demand suggests rebound in Q2, equity market efficiency, strong compensation growth impacting next week’s Fed meeting, impact of Trump’s potential Twitter return, COVID’s impact on Biden Fed nominees, FANG oversold conditions, and the impact of a strengthening dollar.
The RenMac team discusses Bullard’s balloon, Fed’s likely three 50 bps hike pace, recession probability declining in face of economic momentum, parallels to 94 and 04, gap downs more prevalent in downtrends, pickup in defensive areas, Schumer dashes marijuana enthusiasts Hight hopes, and Congress retuning to a crowded calendar.
The RenMac team discusses Brainard’s comments on reducing the balance sheet and the market’s reaction, next week’s inflation report and how the Fed will respond, reallocation towards healthcare away from tech, immigration debate holds up COVID relief, Rs feeling better about ’22 and ’24, will the growth last, and the corporate credit market is remaining accommodative.
The RenMac team discusses the hot payroll number, climbing participation rate, Fed can go longer without breaking the economy, misunderstood inverted yield curve, 3 month and 30 year is a better signal, deterioration in late cycle sectors, peak inflation in next three months, Biden blurring the distinction between income and wealth.
The RenMac Team discusses inflation historically being an energy problem, broadening inflation, Powell backing 50 bps hikes now, Biden’s economic assumptions in the budget request, Republicans registering voters at gas stations, COVID concerns subsiding, 20-day numbers looking good but not great, BB vs. BBB spreads narrowing, differentiation determining winners and losers.
The RenMac team discuss the impact of Raskin’s withdrawal from the Fed, the dreaded death cross, staying out of the stew, trucker’s rise on Fed meeting, how the recession call is premature, and Powell’s challenges with landing the inflation plane.
The RenMac team discusses the muted market reaction to sky high inflation, what the two and ten year yields are telling us, bond market history of fighting tightening, Biden blaming inflation on Russia, pre-pandemic conditions returning, bears still outnumbering bulls in terms of sentiment, noise around the trends, withdraw of liquidity impacting marginal assets, Powell on tap next week.
The RenMac team discusses the solid payroll numbers, confirmation that we’re in an inflationary boom, Biden’s failure to reset at the State of the Union, administration supporting polices that make inflation worse not better, and a lot of bearish sentiment but little momentum at the moment.
RenMac discusses the impact of the Fed hiking into a booming economy, the dwindling prospects of Raskin’s confirmation, peak inflation but shifting into services, geopolitical tensions and their impact on gold and energy, Iranian deal implications and the convenient political timing on mask removals before Biden’s State of the Union.
RenMac team discusses opening Wordle words, NYC traffic, the broadening of inflation, permission for the Fed to go 50 bps in March, consumers resistance to higher prices, the counter-cyclical impact of short rates and oil, pandemic politics, and the unusual leadership of banks at this part in the cycle.
The RenMac team discusses the big jobs surprise amid Omicron fears, economic momentum for more aggressive rate hikes, the impact of a 49-50 Senate for Ds without Lujan on Biden’s Fed nominees and legislative agenda, international bonds breaking out, potential for asset deflation as the Fed fights inflation, cracks in concept capital, why apathy is better than emotion when picking stocks.
The RenMac team discusses what a potential Russian invasion could mean for energy markets and inflation, compensation growth exceeding productivity growth, how returns drive flows, and a desire for a steepening curve.
The RenMac team discusses Biden’s press conference and international ramifications, shifting sentiment with bears outweighing bulls, and the Fed’s proposed dot plot ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting, signs the pandemic might be ending, and what yields are saying.
RenMac reviews the political costs of inflation, how the new Fed nominees could impact policy, the importance of quality as liquidity normalizes, signs of a policy mistake and the outlook for 2022 as we progress toward the election.
The RenMac team discusses the collapse of concept capital, the Fed’s March glidepath, whether the Fed is offsides, inflationary buildup in the labor market, how Biden’s expected nominees will lead to politicization of the Fed, and tilting towards value.
RenMac debates Build Back Better vs Build Back at All, Powell’s latest thoughts, vacancies at the Fed, implications of the yield curve and the continued and expected deterioration of “concept finance”
Neil crashes “Off-script” from Miami to discuss inflation, while Steve views it thru the lens of fiscal policy and 2022 elections. Jeff discusses his discomfort with the flattening yield curve, the importance of the Fed’s balance sheet, and the fading of “concept capital”.
RenMac discusses today’s weak jobs headline but strong details, the curve conundrum given inflation expectations, the breakout in housing, will Kamala or Pete be the heir apparent, the history of inflation and the Fed as well as next week’s inflation data.
Moz Afzal is the CIO of EFG International in London. He is the lead manager of EFG's New Capital Strategic Portfolio and New Capital Tactical Opportunities Fund. He has been instrumental in building EFG's global footprint and shares with us how he has continued to manage money effectively while building a trusted team of analysts and PMs around him. Here is our conversation...
The RenMac team discussed Neil’s London trip and how it is more open than NYC, strong economic indicators, the politics behind Biden’s Fed’s decision, the pressure to politicize the Fed like other institutions, a strong housing outlook moving forward, Neil’s upcoming, Cancun “work” trip, and debt limit drama returning in December.
Renmac discusses inflation, the broadening of the data, the impact on the electorate and messaging out of Washington, the improvement in gold and the relative strength of cyclicals versus weakness in defensive names.
RenMac discusses the acceleration in the labor market, Powell’s dovish press conference just before he was spotted at the White House, the breakout in small cap stocks and the re-opening trade, and what the strong GOP performance in this week’s elections (NJ/VA) mean for current fiscal negotiations.
David Fingold of Dynamic Funds in Toronto brings over 30 years of business and investment experience to his clients, but his path to overseeing more than $13.5B in AUM is unique. David knows what it is to run a business successfully, how to finance it, and consequently what it means to invest in one. He's a bottoms-up stock picker who worries top-down, and his success speaks volumes.
RenMac walks thru the latest mis-queues out of Washington, what today’s employment cost data mean, the poor 3Q relative GDP performance (France was better), inflation expectations, gold and Virginia’s gubernatorial race.
Jeff, Neil and Steve discuss Powell’s status, the surge in 5yr break evens, gold’s message, the importance of the Gubernatorial race in Virginia, the bearish relative trend change in consumer discretionary names, and the supportive sentiment and seasonal environment for stocks.
Join the RenMac team as they discuss the Congressional calendar crunch, how the growing reliance on reliance on fossil fuels is benefiting Vladmir Putin, the inflation boom, and how Biden’s climate policy discourages fossil fuel production.
RenMac reviews McConnel’s strategy with Schumer, weaker payrolls and the implications for Fed policy, Late-cycle and sentiment, supply-chain issues, Manchin drops the F-bomb and the importance of better or worse versus good or bad on Wall Street.
RenMac debates the political gamesmanship out of Washington, Senator Warren’s swipe at Powell, the resignation of 2 Fed hawks, the status of backlogs and end-user demand, the abundant oversold conditions in industry groups, rising yields and the bullish complacency found in corporate credit.
RenMac discusses this week’s hawkish message out of the Fed, the importance of the breakout in 10-year yields, its implication for higher yields on industries, the political wrangling’s in Washington as Presidential approval erodes, and Neil’s new ground-breaking diet plan.
Mike Masters of Masters Capital Management has had a storied career in the investment business. From his days in the pool as an All-American swimmer at The University of Tennessee to his first job as a retail stockbroker and finally as the head of his eponymous named firm, Mike’s focus on process and his sheer willingness to succeed has served his investors well. As one of the most active institutional users of derivatives on the street, Mike understands mismatches in perceptions, expectations and calendar quirks, and attempts to exploit those difference to his client's advantage. He’s built a first class business while being true to his family and partners. Here’s our conversation.
Today Neil, Steve and Jeff discuss the strength and resilience of the consumer, the seasonality of equities and cyclicality, the important dates for upcoming votes in Washington and the Feds taper/rate hike schedule.
Give us 13 minutes, we walk you through the strength of labor demand, why Biden’s speech is a sign that COVID concerns have likely peaked, how much of the negative sentiment might already be priced into equities, the latest news from DC and why the odds of a government shutdown are 25% and rising as the month progresses.
RenMac dives head-first into today’s jobs number, the importance of employment distribution in the numbers, the impact it is likely to have on Fed tapering, the political infighting starting to develop among Ds in DC and the markets unwavering trend.
The RenMac Team discusses supply conditions impact on inflation, a daunting Congressional calendar in September, how Biden’s nominees will shape the Fed, and taking the foot off the market accelerator.
RenMac discusses the Biden’s challenge with budget reconciliation process, the oversold condition in energy and materials, the breakout in the dollar, the nagging and persistent breadth divergence, the inflation picture, and Steve’s foray into fatherhood.
Give us 18 minutes, we run through the recent movement in inflation, why it will not necessarily sway the Fed but has brought more of a political response from the Biden administration. In the markets, we highlight the pick-up in financials, particularly outside of banks and why this is not a growth versus value market, but one where you should focus on quality.
RenMac discusses the robust employment report, hurdles for the August numbers, congressional recess, DeSantis vs Biden, lending standards, and the liquidation seen in financial ETFs.
Stephanie Link has worn multiple hats over her tenured career, from the sell-side at Morgan Stanley to the buy-side working with Jim Cramer, then as head of global equity research at Nuveen and now chief investment strategist and portfolio manager for Hightower, a national wealth management firm. You might know her from CNBC where she's a regular contributor, but we dig deeper and talk about her experience, philosophy, and insight; she has a lot of wisdom to offer. Here's our conversation:
Renmac discusses the triangulation of debt ceiling and infrastructure this autumn, the GDP figures, how Powell is thinking about the world, the importance of quality and profitability at this part of the cycle, the continued strength of discretionary names and the uptick in healthcare.
Renmac discusses inflation, its non-transitory nature and the challenges it poses to stimulus, as well as breadth divergences, seasonality and the upcoming debt ceiling.
Give us 11 minutes, we run through Powell’s testimony on the Hill this week, the outlook for the composition of the Board of Governors next year, why the Fed’s reaction function might be dovish in 2022, and the latest in fiscal and infrastructure negotiations in Congress.
In the last of our two-part conversation with Dr. Arthur Laffer we discuss inequality, deficits, his proposal for a flat tax, the Achilles' heal of Keynesianisms, MMT, and monetarism, as well as his outlook on inflation and his thoughts regarding negative rates.
Give us 18 minutes, we walk you through the decoupling of Chinese and US tech and the regulatory hammer coming down from DC, why the bond market might have it wrong on the growth outlook, and what this means for US bank stocks.
RenMac discusses the distinction between data and rhetoric, the red-hot ISM data, the implications from the yield curve, timing and internal politics on infrastructure and what it means for taxes going forward.
In the National Museum of American History in Washington D.C. rests the Laffer Curve or, more precisely, the napkin upon which Dr. Arthur Laffer drew his theory on taxation and government revenue for Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld. He has been instrumental in shaping economic policy for a half-century, and has attracted the predictable detractors in the process. His pragmatism, good-humor and firm grasp of incentives, and their role in public policy and governance, is insightful, refreshing, and transcends political ideology. We discuss his career, theories, and outlook in this first of our 2-part conversation.
Renmac looks at the Feds statement this week, its impact on markets, the message from yields, seasonal influences on equities, and the latest out of Washington.
The RenMac team discusses the latest inflation report, the impact of a decline in the 10-year Treasury, and U.S. efforts to counter China.
Stan Weinstein was the editor and author of "The Professional Tape Reader", and the 1988 book "Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets", where he describes his 4-stage approach to security analysis. Stan has been actively engaged in the markets since the early 1960 and has been credited with some of the most important calls over the last 50-years, due in no small part to his rigorous process and stage analysis.
RenMac sifts thru the payroll data, the improvement in REITs, increased pressure on China, the primary duty of elected officials and next week’s inflation numbers.
Steve, Neil and Jeff discuss the passing of the infrastructure deadline, the trend of inflation, Biden’s $6T budget proposal, the breakout in industrial transportation names, the mix between goods and services, next week’s jobs number and the improvement in gold.
RenMac discusses the regulatory environment around crypto, the temporal difference between Fed minutes and data, the yield curve and the breakout in gold.
Renmac talks about the latest inflation data, the timing of the CDC’s decision, the oversold condition in technology, lending standards and the marginal borrower, and the psychological importance of normalcy.
RenMac discusses the disappointing jobs number, the “disincentive to work” theory, the implications of FBs ongoing ban on Trump, the continued strength seen in sectors that are historically mid-cycle, Yellen’s comments on rates and the future of policy post today’s jobs number.
Ned Davis has been actively involved with the markets for 53-years, starting his eponymous firm NDR in 1980. Despite all the systems, technology and experience at his disposal, he continues to find utility in and rely upon some of the most traditional tools available. Today we discuss what works, what doesn't, how markets have changed as well as some of our stories and interactions through the years. Here's our conversation........
RenMac talks about the challenges facing the Fed in the months ahead with robust wages, inflation and GDP, what is in the American Family Plan, the increased competition between stocks and bonds given yield parity, sentiment and importance of market momentum, and the impact the Census outcome will have on mid-term elections
In 14m RenMac discusses DC Statehood, the SEC’s new found interest in SPACs, 96% of names above 200-day MA, the importance of discretionary names, absolute breakouts in staples and utilities not confirmed by relative strength, and is the slowing reopening data effected by the end of spring break.
Richard Chilton is the founder, chairman, CEO and CIO of Chilton Investment Company. He's been on the vanguard of investment trends for over 40-years staring in M&A, cutting his teeth as a small cap manager at Alliance in the 80s, starting his hedge fund in 1992 and trust company in 2011. Richard shares with us his investment philosophy, stories from his mentors, the importance of philanthropy as well as his journey with wine. Here's our conversation.....
The RenMac team discusses the outlook for a weaker dollar, the admission of errors by pollsters, concerns about peak economic growth and what recent fundraising numbers says about Trump’s sway over the Republican Party.
Neil’s recent vacation confirms his data, the challenges of awakening corporate culture, how specialty retail is confirming the housing cycle, and the challenges of a global tax rate.
Cathie Wood has a meticulous and unique research process. In this 2 half of our conversation, we discuss how she procures ideas, determines when she's wrong, thinks about value and a few of her themes for the 21st Century. Here's our conversation......
Cathie Wood and the ARK Innovation fund have become poster children for this bull market. Cathie invests in disrupters and innovators, but those are not just buzz words, they are part of a meticulous process, one that does take into account valuation, but also dares to imagine how some of these companies can and will change the world for the better. She herself has been a disrupter all her life, and the combination of technologic change, her faith and her intuition triangulated almost a decade ago into what has now become a “movement" on Wall Street. Here is the first part of our 2-part conversation:
RenMac discusses Biden’s 1st news conference as President, dispelling some of the myths surrounding the Fed, the normalization of economic surprises on the market, looking for a 7-figure employment print, Taiwan/China relations, and what was in Biden’s cheat sheet?
RenMac discusses the uselessness of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators, what indicators are useful for forward returns in the S&P 500, the Biden team’s recent skirmish with China’s delegation, and why next week’s data are likely to be dollar bullish.
Tom Gallagher was a Washington Policy Legend on Wall Street for decades. We first crossed paths at Lehman Brothers in the late 1990s and then I had the good fortune of working with Tom at ISI and at the Scowcroft Group over the last 15-years. He’s officially retired, but ever the student of policy and politics, he’s as sharp as ever and his perspective and insight were always something I appreciated, and today was no exception…….here’s our conversation:
RenMac looks at the latest inflation data and market implications, the wish lists in the stimulus bill, importance of 52-week highs in equities and James Carville’s accurate assessment of lockdowns.
RenMac discusses the strong jobs data, stimulus flirting with the upper end of the range, rates and the duration trade, where we are in the economic cycle and the need for thoughtful and credible messaging as we reopen.
300 years ago in London, the South Sea Bubble was deflating. It created vast fortunes for a few like Thomas Guy who used it to establish the eponymous Hospital in London, and financial disaster for other like Sir Isaac Newton who was lured back into the waters only to lose a fortune for himself and others. Professor Andrew Odlyzko from the University of Minnesota has studied the South Sea Bubble, what was happening, its characteristics and what we can learn from it, here's our conversation.....
RenMac discusses the move in the Treasury markets, the quiescent response in Corporate credits, who is Elizabeth MacDonough and how might she be assisting Schumer, a memo from Arthur Burns to Jimmy Carter, and the data packed week ahead.
RenMac debates the overwhelmingly strong economic data, the vaccination of the most vulnerable, how it impacts the COVID relief, how and where yields start to negatively impact equities, the future of the Republican Party, and California’s “unique” prioritization of front-line workers
Scott worked with some of Wall Street's most prominent investors before starting Key Square in 2016, the largest hedge fund launch of that year. His mentors include Jim Rogers, Jim Chanos, Stan Druckenmiller and George Soros, and it was with Stan and George in 1992 that he played an important roll in thier understanding the BoE's untenable position as it related to defending the Pound and raising rates. These mentors as well has his Father's love of science fiction all account for Scott's unique and often profitable perspective. Here's our conversation.
RenMac discusses the outlook for inflation, the current extreme positioning in the bond market, Biden’s 180 on semiconductors’ strategic importance, handicapping impeachment, and the week ahead
In 16m, RenMac discusses the trend in gold, how today’s job numbers factor into stimulus negotiations, at what point is inflation not “transitory”, and how we should be thinking about this in regards to the RenMac market cycle clock.
In 15m RenMac talks about the benefits of short-sellers in a market, the pitfalls of an SEC overview, Cruz and AOC, latest GDP figures and China’s recent saber rattling over Taiwan.
Noah runs over $5B as the growth manager of the Dynamic Funds out of Toronto Canada. He enters his 23rd year at the wheel, and has seen every type of market, and navigated deftly. His process continually places him in the 98th percentile as a growth manager, and while fundamentally biased, he keeps his head on a swivel and one eye on the macro-environment. Here's our conversation.....
RenMac discusses Biden’s first few days, how China doves mysteriously transitioned into hawks, housing and its importance, setting an artificially low bar and the building bubble in assets
In 15m RenMac discusses the Biden’s stimulus plan, the expectations of policy and the likelihood of something less, Powell green lights assets inflation, and the importance of contrarian thinking around words and rhetoric versus facts.
RenMac sorts through the news of the week. December jobs report was soft but with stronger details. Additional fiscal stimulus is on the way as GA goes blue. This is going to find its way into asset prices.
RenMac handicaps political winners/losers of stimulus, the great inflation debate, deGraaf’s “Perpetuity Effect”, what Fed’s comments mean for asset prices and Neil’s definition of a “Powder Day”.
US equities are in an unambiguous uptrend. The energy sector is breaking out after a long funk, but we’re skeptical this means anything for price inflation just yet. Plus the latest on fiscal negotiations in DC: both sides are likely to drop their must haves for a slimmed down relief bill before year end.
RenMac plays “Pardon Bingo”, latest on stimulus package, excessive sentiment readings in equity markets, economic bears are policy advocates, it remains about credit not COVID.