C.O.B. Tuesday: Recent Episodes
Veriten
C.O.B. Tuesday is a weekly one-hour talk show that serves as a knowledge pipeline for the energy industry and the energy curious. We host honest, timely, conversations with people we believe can improve the discussion, can provide new perspectives, can share unique insights into key energy issues, and can discuss inventive, pragmatic solutions for a stronger energy future. Produced by Veriten.
This week we had the privilege of hosting Leif Johan Sevland, President and CEO of the Offshore Northern Seas Foundation (ONS), for a Special Edition. Leif is a Norwegian business leader and former politician with a distinguished career spanning public service and the energy sector. Prior to joining ONS, Leif served as the Mayor of Stavanger from 2005 to 2011. The ONS 2026 Conference is fast approaching, taking place from August 24–27 in Stavanger, Norway. The conference is held biennially and attracts 70,000+ global industry leaders representing over 1,100 companies and 35+ countries. We were honored to host Leif to preview this year’s conference, its major themes, and the trends shaping Norway’s, Europe’s and the world’s energy landscape.
In our conversation, Leif shared a preview of what attendees can expect at ONS 2026 and how this year's conference theme, Courage, is intended to challenge industry leaders to move beyond discussion and embrace decisive action in addressing the world's evolving energy needs. We explore Norway's unique position as both a leading oil and gas producer and an energy innovator, discussing how energy security, affordability, technological innovation, and shifting geopolitical dynamics are reshaping energy markets, investment priorities, and policy around the world.
We examine Europe's evolving innovation ecosystem, the accelerating adoption of AI and its growing impact on power demand, renewed interest in nuclear energy, and the convergence of energy, defense, and industrial technologies. Leif emphasizes the importance of open dialogue, global collaboration, and developing the next generation of industry leaders, and shares how ONS brings together policymakers, operators, investors, entrepreneurs, and innovators to exchange ideas and help shape the future of energy. The Veriten team will be at ONS, participating in a few panels, and connecting with good friends and with some of our partner and portfolio companies that will also be in attendance.
Mike Bradley started off the discussion by noting that two key market themes remained in place: lower oil prices and stronger equity markets. The 10-year Treasury yield remained range-bound, showing little directional movement. On the equity market front, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up ~500 to 600 points on the day, with gains driven primarily by Amgen, Caterpillar, and Goldman Sachs. On the oil market front, downward pressure on crude prices continued, with WTI falling by approximately $1/bbl to around $75/bbl. The decline was driven largely by market optimism that the temporary pause in U.S. military strikes on Iran would remain in place. He noted, however, that oil prices appear increasingly oversold from a technical perspective, having declined roughly $10 to $15/bbl over the past one to two weeks. As a result, crude prices could rebound sharply should the current military pause end or geopolitical tensions re-escalate.
He concluded by highlighting key takeaways from Saudi Aramco’s 2Q earnings call, noting that management delivered a decidedly bullish message on the outlook for global oil markets. According to Aramco, oil markets are far tighter than many indicators/prices suggest. Aramco noted that global markets lost ~11mmbpd of supply because of the conflict and shipping disruptions; strategic reserve releases and inventory drawdowns have masked the true extent of the shortage; inventory data understates physical market tightness; global inventories have been heavily depleted and must now be rebuilt over several years; and it would take around 18 months and roughly 2.1mmbpd of incremental demand just to restore inventories to pre-conflict levels if conditions normalize immediately.
We were fortunate to also have Veriten Venture Partner Karl Liapunov join and share his insights throughout the discussion. Karl is the founder of Starting Cold and is the U.S. Ecosystem Partner at Startuplab, where he previously served as Head of Energy & Climate Tech in Oslo.
Today we had the pleasure of hosting Corey Rosenbusch for a wide-ranging discussion on the fertilizer industry, global energy markets, and the geopolitical forces increasingly shaping both. Corey is the President and CEO of The Fertilizer Institute (TFI), headquartered in Arlington, Virginia. Corey joined TFI in 2020 after serving as President and CEO of the Global Cold Chain Alliance. He currently serves as Chair of the Texas A&M University Agricultural Leadership, Education & Communication Department Advisory Board and the Association Leadership Group. We were thrilled to host Corey to better understand the connections between fertilizer, natural gas, food security, and global supply chains.
In our conversation, Corey provides a comprehensive overview of the global fertilizer industry and its critical connection to energy markets. He explains how natural gas serves as the essential feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer production, outlines the distinct dynamics of nitrogen, phosphate, potash, and sulfur markets, and discusses why fertilizer has become increasingly intertwined with global geopolitics, food security, and national security. We examine how disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz affected global flows of urea, ammonia, phosphate, and sulfur, why export restrictions from China and Russia have reshaped global trade, and how government subsidies, tariffs, and state-owned enterprises continue to influence fertilizer pricing and availability. Corey highlights the concentration of global fertilizer production and exports across a handful of countries and explains how those supply chains have become increasingly vulnerable to geopolitical disruption.
Corey shares why current fertilizer market conditions differ from the 2022 Russia-Ukraine disruption, how weak farm economics and higher input costs are impacting U.S. growers, and why fertilizer prices are ultimately driven by global supply and demand rather than local production. We discuss the outlook for fertilizer demand, key Farm Bill provisions, including E15 and biostimulants, the competitiveness of U.S. fertilizer manufacturing, and why expanding domestic production, streamlining permitting, and maintaining access to affordable natural gas will be critical to strengthening both U.S. food security and energy security. We learned a great deal from Corey and greatly enjoyed the discussion.
To start the show, Mike Bradley noted the day's market trifecta: lower bond yields, lower oil prices, and higher equity markets. The 10-year Treasury yield was trading between 4.60% and 4.65%, well below last week's high of ~4.75%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was up approximately 1,000 points, driven largely by significant share price gains in Caterpillar and Goldman Sachs. These two stocks alone accounted for roughly 500 points of the DJIA's gain. He highlighted several companies scheduled to report second-quarter earnings results this week, including AMD, Disney, Eli Lilly, and SpaceX.
On the oil market front, he noted that WTI crude oil prices had fallen roughly $9/bbl to ~$75-$76/bbl so far this week following a temporary pause in U.S. military strikes on Iran. While U.S. strikes are on hold for now, military action could resume at any point, contributing to heightened oil price volatility. Despite WTI declining more than 10% this week, the energy sector was down only ~1.5%. Investor focus last week was primarily on second-quarter earnings results from the U.S. integrated oil majors, Chevron and ExxonMobil, as well as refiners, with management teams indicating that global refining margins remain structurally tight. He highlighted BP's new CEO's comment that it would be "prudent" to stop thinking of BP as a traditional Big Oil supermajor and instead compete within its own weight class.
He concluded by highlighting President Trump's remarks about to Chevron’s and ExxonMobil’s record-setting quarterly results. President Trump argued that these companies were making too much money and should return more of their profits to the public and lower retail prices. Chevron and ExxonMobil generated average second-quarter profit margins in the mid-to-high teens and have generally reported high single-digit to low-double-digit profit margins over the past three years. By comparison, large-cap tech companies reported average second-quarter profit margins of ~40% and have averaged ~45% to 50% profit margins over the last three years.
Jeff Tillery added his perspective on the outlook for U.S. natural gas demand, noting that forecasts call for roughly 20 bcfd of cumulative demand growth over the next five years. While significant, he emphasized that this largely represents a continuation of trends already underway. U.S. natural gas demand increased by nearly 20 bcfd over the past five years, driven primarily by LNG exports, and he expects exports to remain the primary driver of growth going forward. While he remains constructive on the long-term natural gas demand outlook, he emphasized that the next phase is more evolutionary than transformational.
Today we were delighted to welcome James West, Managing Director and Head of Energy and Power Research at Melius Research. James is a longtime energy analyst with more than 25 years of experience leading research teams covering oilfield services, equipment, clean energy, and power at Lehman Brothers, Barclays, Evercore ISI, and now Melius. Since joining Melius, James has expanded his coverage to include independent power producers (IPPs) and the broader power ecosystem. We were pleased to visit with James to hear his latest perspectives on the rapidly evolving energy landscape and the investment themes shaping the next decade.
In our conversation, James reflects on his transition from Evercore ISI to Melius and explains why he believes the traditional Wall Street research model is evolving toward a more integrated approach that combines energy, power, technology, and industrials. We discuss how AI-driven electricity demand is accelerating the convergence of these sectors, why access to reliable power has become the biggest bottleneck to AI deployment, and why understanding the entire energy value chain has become increasingly important for investors. We examine the latest earnings season, the recent wave of energy, power, and nuclear IPOs, and how investor sentiment has shifted from enthusiasm around AI infrastructure to a greater focus on execution and capital discipline.
James explains why he remains constructive on the long-term outlook for oilfield services, offshore development, international upstream activity, independent power producers, and natural gas, while highlighting the growing importance of behind-the-meter power solutions, regulatory reform, and grid infrastructure. We explore the outlook for advanced nuclear, geothermal, and critical minerals, Canada's strategic role in North American energy markets, how investors are balancing long-duration growth opportunities with near-term market volatility, and why AI is changing the way companies communicate with investors. As James notes, “your press releases have to be written for Claude or ChatGPT, whoever’s going to read it before the analyst.” We wrap up the discussion with James’ reflections on New York City’s enduring role as a global financial and innovation hub. We greatly enjoyed the conversation and appreciate James taking the time to join us.
To start the show, Mike Bradley noted that fixed income markets were focused on the upcoming FOMC meeting, scheduled for Wednesday. The consensus expectation is for the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged. However, there remains a small possibility of a 25-basis-point rate increase, a move that could place Chairman Warsh in President Trump's crosshairs. From a broader equity market standpoint, the S&P 500 was up ~0.5% and the DJIA had gained 600 to 700 points. He attributed much of Tuesday’s advance to the sharp decline in oil prices. He also highlighted ongoing sector rotation, with investors shifting capital out of semiconductor stocks and into industrial names. Apple joined the exclusive $5 trillion market-cap club. Another key area of focus this week will be AI-related capex, with three of the Magnificent Seven technology companies scheduled to report earnings.
On the oil market front, he highlighted the sharp decline in crude prices, noting that Brent crude had fallen by ~$13/bbl during the week to ~$83/bbl, while WTI crude had declined by ~$11/bbl to ~$78/bbl. He attributed the selloff to rapidly shifting sentiment surrounding the on-again, off-again conflict with Iran. He concluded by noting that the Energy sector had been one of the market’s strongest performers over the past several weeks but was down ~4% this week as declining oil prices weighed on sentiment. He emphasized that investors will be closely focused this week on second-quarter earnings reports from the U.S. integrated oil majors and refiners. Investors are hopeful that refiner commentary will provide greater insight into global refined product market fundamentals.
Jeff Tillery noted that enthusiasm around AI-driven power infrastructure has cooled alongside AI capex sentiment, pressuring many merchant power and generation stocks, including several recent IPOs. Looking ahead, he believes the sector is entering an execution phase where investors will begin distinguishing between winners and losers rather than rewarding the entire theme uniformly.
We are pleased to continue our COBT California Summer Series with today’s episode featuring Martin Viecha, Founder and Advisor at MV Motion Advisory. Prior to founding MV Motion, Martin served as the Vice President of Investor Relations at Tesla and previously spent several years as a sell-side equity research analyst covering the automotive and technology sectors. Based in Palo Alto, MV Motion is focused on robotaxis and autonomy, humanoid robots, and the evolving automotive landscape. We were delighted to host Martin for a wide-ranging discussion on the technologies shaping the future of transportation, robotics, and AI.
In our conversation, Martin provides a comprehensive overview of the rapidly evolving autonomous vehicle and humanoid robotics landscape. We discuss why he believes robotaxis are approaching a mainstream adoption inflection point, transitioning from a Silicon Valley novelty to a service that will soon be available across much of the U.S. He explains why California, Texas, and Florida have emerged as leading deployment markets, how expanding permitting and improving safety records are accelerating adoption, and why safety, utilization rates, and cost per mile will ultimately determine the industry’s winners. We explore Tesla’s camera-only autonomous driving approach versus Waymo’s multi-sensor strategy and the long-term implications for automakers, ride-hailing platforms, insurance, and vehicle ownership.
We examine China’s growing leadership in EVs and robotics, the enormous long-term potential for humanoid robots, the significant technical hurdles that remain around dexterity, world models, and data collection, and why geopolitics, national security, and public policy are likely to play an increasingly important role in shaping the future of advanced robotics and AI. Martin outlines why, despite the excitement surrounding humanoid robots, they remain considerably further from widespread commercialization than robotaxis due to the vastly greater complexity of replicating human movement and decision-making. It was a fascinating discussion. We look forward to staying connected with Martin and continuing to follow his research.
To start the show, Mike Bradley noted that the next three to four weeks will be dominated by second-quarter earnings reports. From a fixed income perspective, U.S. Treasury yields have continued to trend higher, driven in part by rising energy prices and their inflationary impact. The S&P 500 was up modestly on the day, gaining roughly 0.25%. In commodities, Brent crude oil rose approximately $2/bbl to around $94/bbl amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East. President Trump also formally approved a landmark agreement with Saudi Arabia to support the development of a civilian nuclear program in the kingdom, potentially opening the door to uranium enrichment activities there. In energy and power equities, GE Vernova (GEV) shares fell approximately 8% following earnings as the company fell short of highly elevated investor expectations despite reporting solid gas turbine performance and providing robust forward guidance. In contrast, Weatherford International (WFRD) shares rose as much as 9% after delivering strong quarterly results and a more optimistic outlook for the second half of 2026 than the market had anticipated. With equity markets trading near all-time highs and quarterly and second-half 2026 expectations remaining extremely elevated for many companies, Mike noted that the next three to four weeks of earnings reports could generate significant market volatility. Ellen Wilkirson also joined the discussion and peppered in her technology questions and perspectives.
Today we had the pleasure of hosting Giacomo "Jack" Prandelli, Founder of The Merchant’s News Substack. The Merchant’s News covers oil, gas, LNG, metals, and geopolitics, with a particular focus on global trade flows, commodity markets, and the macro forces shaping energy prices. Jack is a former commodities trader who has built a large global following on LinkedIn and X through his data-driven analysis of rapidly evolving geopolitical events and energy markets. We were pleased to visit with Jack to discuss the Strait of Hormuz crisis, the resilience of global oil markets, and the evolving geopolitical forces reshaping the global energy landscape.
In our conversation, Jack explains why he believes oil prices have been far more resilient than many expected despite the Strait of Hormuz crisis. He walks us through a few charts and outlines how coordinated releases from strategic petroleum reserves, a stronger-than-anticipated recovery in global oil flows, and increased production from the U.S. and Middle East producers helped offset supply disruptions. We discuss the evolving balance of power in global energy markets, including the growing influence of U.S. production, China's role as the world's largest oil importer, and what the conflict revealed about OPEC, strategic petroleum reserves, and the resilience of the global energy system.
Jack outlines why refining, not crude supply, has emerged as the market's primary constraint, how Russian refinery attacks and China's inventory strategy have reshaped global energy flows, and why he believes the market remains structurally bullish over the longer term. We also explore the shift toward energy security, deglobalization, and the changing geopolitical landscape as countries increasingly prioritize control over energy, refining, and commodity supply chains. We greatly appreciate Jack for joining us and sharing his insights.
To start the show, Mike Bradley noted that fixed income markets continue to trend higher, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to ~4.62% and the 30-year Treasury yield reaching ~5.14%. Both benchmarks are nearing the peak levels seen during the height of the Iran war, highlighting bond market concerns around inflation. On the broader equity market front, the S&P 500 was up just under 1% for the week to date, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was Tuesday's standout performer, gaining ~400 points on strength in industrial stocks, led by 3M, whose shares surged ~8%. Several high-profile companies are scheduled to report results this week, including Alphabet (Google), Tesla, IBM, Intel, and NextEra Energy.
On the oil market front, Brent crude was trading at ~$91/bbl, up ~$3/bbl for the week and ~$15/bbl over the past two weeks. Notably, Brent settled above $90/bbl for the first time since early June. Mike noted that the energy complex is wrestling more with global refining constraints than a global crude oil supply shortage. As evidence, U.S. Gulf Coast refining crack spreads have risen to ~$70/bbl, up from ~$60/bbl three weeks ago and from ~$25/bbl prior to the onset of the Iran war. He concluded by noting that investors are turning their attention to second-quarter earnings across the oilfield services sector, with Halliburton kicking off the group's reporting season on Tuesday. Several other key service providers are scheduled to report this week, including Weatherford International, Liberty Energy, Oceaneering International, and SLB. The broader energy sector will also be active, with earnings expected from EQT Corporation, Range Resources, Equinor, Kinder Morgan, Ovintiv, TotalEnergies, and Repsol. Veriten Senior Advisor Deborah Byers also joined and added her perspectives and questions throughout the conversation.
We are excited to share this Special Edition featuring Senator Alan Armstrong (R-OK). Senator Armstrong, alongside Senators Rick Scott (R-FL), Cynthia Lummis (R-WY), Katie Britt (R-AL), and James Lankford (R-OK), recently introduced the American Energy and Mineral Infrastructure Act. The legislation seeks to modernize the federal permitting process for energy and mineral infrastructure projects while preserving strong environmental protections. We were delighted to host Senator Armstrong to discuss his experience in Washington, the motivation behind the legislation, and what it could mean for the future of U.S. infrastructure development.
In our conversation, Senator Armstrong discusses his transition from leading Williams Companies to serving in the U.S. Senate and explains why permitting reform has become one of the country's most pressing economic and national security priorities. He walks us through the American Energy and Mineral Infrastructure Act, outlining how the legislation seeks to streamline federal permitting, reduce unnecessary litigation, provide greater regulatory certainty for project developers, and create a more predictable process for building critical infrastructure. We explore how permitting delays increase costs for consumers, discourage private investment, and threaten America's economic and technological competitiveness as electricity demand accelerates alongside AI and data center growth. Longer term, it’s not an overstatement to say failing to address these issues will also threaten the country’s national security.
Senator Armstrong shares his perspective on building bipartisan support for permitting reform, maintaining an energy source-neutral approach, and ensuring that pipelines, transmission lines, nuclear facilities, and other critical infrastructure can be built in a more timely and predictable manner. We touch on the growing importance of grid reliability, the intersection of permitting reform and national security, and why he believes the current Congress has a unique opportunity to address these long-standing challenges before rising power demand and infrastructure constraints become even more acute. The discussion was especially timely as the push is on to get permitting reform done during this Congress. The Senator emphasized, “Who in the world would oppose this? We’re going to be asking that question exactly on the floor tomorrow as we’re starting to put pressure on moving this bill forward.” We greatly appreciate Senator Armstrong for joining us and for his leadership on this important issue.
To start the show, Mike Bradley highlighted key market developments, noting that favorable inflation data has supported markets this week. Cooler-than-expected CPI and PPI reports released on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, pushed the 10-year Treasury yield down to roughly 4.55% and reduced near-term pressure on the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates. In commodities, Brent and WTI crude oil prices appeared to have temporarily stabilized at approximately $85/bbl and $80/bbl, respectively, despite President Trump’s escalation of military strikes against Iran. On the equity front, the S&P 500 was up about 0.25% on the day, supported by the favorable PPI report. Telecom was the top-performing sector, gaining roughly 2.5% to 3.0%, led by Google, following reports that Berkshire Hathaway had taken a large position in the stock. He concluded by highlighting the significant value creation achieved during Alan Armstrong’s tenure as CEO of Williams Companies. Veriten Senior Advisor Bill Flores also joined the discussion, offering valuable perspective on the legislative process and the dynamics in Washington.
This week we had the exciting opportunity to travel to Lake Forest, California, to tour TAE Technologies’ facilities and spend time with the company’s CEO, Dr. Michl Binderbauer. Founded in 1998, TAE has spent nearly three decades pursuing one of the energy industry’s most ambitious goals: commercializing a safe, sustainable, and economically viable source of fusion energy. With renewed momentum in the fusion industry, we thought it was the perfect time to visit TAE and better understand why many believe fusion’s moment may finally be approaching. Our visit also marks the beginning of a California COBT series, where over the coming weeks, we'll highlight some of the state's innovative companies, technologies, and leaders. We will also touch on a challenge or two the state is facing. Stay tuned!
In our discussion, Michl explains why he believes fusion has reached a true inflection point after nearly three decades of scientific and engineering progress. He outlines why TAE was founded with the “end in mind,” deliberately choosing the more technically challenging hydrogen-boron fuel cycle because it offered the best path to a commercially viable power plant rather than simply proving the science. We explore how advances in AI, machine learning, advanced computing, and materials science have accelerated development, why TAE believes commercial fusion is now measured in years rather than decades, and how the company is preparing to build its first demonstration power plant.
We discuss TAE’s innovative approach to commercializing technologies developed along the way, including its advanced power management platform that is finding applications in AI data centers, industrial facilities, and grid modernization. Michl shares his vision for fusion’s role in delivering abundant, reliable energy to meet the world’s rapidly growing electricity demand, the importance of recent U.S. regulatory reforms, the race with China to commercialize fusion, workforce and supply chain challenges, and why he believes fusion has become not only an energy opportunity, but also an economic and national security imperative. We look at what the next five years could look like for TAE, why hyperscalers, industrial customers, and the Department of War may become some of fusion’s earliest adopters before widespread utility deployment, the company’s long-term vision for a more distributed electric grid, and much more. It was a fascinating and wide-ranging discussion, and we greatly appreciate Michl for sharing his time and insights.
To start the show, Mike Bradley noted that markets have been volatile this week. He highlighted that the cooler-than-expected CPI report sparked a rally in Treasuries, driving the 10-year yield down from roughly 4.65% to 4.55%, and said Wednesday's PPI report will be another important data point for the Fed. U.S. equities also moved higher, with the S&P 500 gaining approximately 0.5% on the back of the CPI report and strong bank earnings, while the Dow lagged following a sharp selloff in IBM shares after disappointing quarterly results.
In commodities, Brent and WTI crude prices climbed roughly $8-$9/bbl this week following the collapse of the Iran-U.S. ceasefire and renewed disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. He emphasized that today's challenge is less a global crude supply issue than a global refining problem, citing tight refined product inventories and the loss of roughly 1.5 million bpd of Russian refining capacity following Ukrainian attacks. He also highlighted that European natural gas prices have surged from approximately $16/MMBtu to $19/MMBtu as storage levels remain 20%-25% below seasonal norms and buyers compete for LNG cargoes.
Mike noted that Energy is the best-performing S&P 500 sector this week, up approximately 3%, as investors turn their attention to second-quarter oilfield services earnings. He also highlighted the newly announced strategic alliance between SLB and Liberty Energy focused on data center infrastructure and power solutions, noting that similar partnerships are likely to become increasingly common across the energy sector.
With the recent wave of milestones across the U.S. nuclear sector, we were eager to better understand what these achievements mean for the future of advanced reactors. Over the past month, Antares, Valar Atomics, Deployable Energy, and Aalo Atomics each achieved criticality, an important technical milestone, through the Department of Energy's Reactor Pilot Program (RPP) and Nuclear Energy Launch Pad. To help us put these milestones into context, we were delighted to host Dr. Rian Bahran, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Nuclear Reactors in the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Nuclear Energy. Rian oversees the Department's portfolio for advanced reactor research, demonstration, and deployment, and is a career member of the Senior Executive Service who has served under both the Biden and Trump Administrations. We were thrilled to visit with Rian to "demystify" the latest developments in U.S. nuclear and discuss what still needs to happen before these technologies reach commercial scale.
In our conversation, Rian explains why the four recent criticality milestones represent an important step forward for advanced nuclear. While criticality is not the finish line, he shares how these demonstrations help validate a new commercialization pathway by allowing companies to build and test nuclear hardware in months rather than years. He describes how the Department of Energy’s Reactor Pilot and Launch Pad initiatives are creating greater regulatory certainty, helping companies unlock private capital, and accelerating progress toward commercial deployment.
We discuss the DOE’s broader strategy for expanding U.S. nuclear capacity, from gigawatt-scale reactors and small modular reactors to microreactors. Rian explains why the DOE is pursuing multiple technologies simultaneously, allowing the market to determine the winning designs while supporting innovation across the reactor, fuel cycle, and supply chain ecosystems. He outlines how reactor uprates, restarts, and investments across the nuclear fuel cycle can provide near-term additions to U.S. generating capacity while advanced reactors continue progressing toward commercialization.
We explore the role advanced nuclear could play in powering AI infrastructure, military installations, industrial facilities, and future export markets. Rian discusses how the DOE is leveraging AI to accelerate reactor design, licensing, manufacturing, and deployment, and why workforce development has become one of the industry’s greatest long-term challenges. He emphasizes that the U.S. has reached a true inflection point for nuclear energy, driven by unprecedented alignment across government, industry, private capital, and growing electricity demand. It was a wide-ranging and fascinating discussion, and we sincerely appreciate Rian taking the time to join us during such a busy time.
Mike Bradley kicked us off by noting that three key themes have driven markets so far this quarter. First, Treasury yields have continued to move higher, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to approximately 4.55% and the 30-year Treasury yield climbing above 5%. Second, renewed geopolitical uncertainty following the end of the Iranian ceasefire helped lift WTI crude oil prices by roughly $4/bbl this week to approximately $72/bbl. Third, equity markets have experienced notable sector rotation, with investors shifting capital out of semiconductor stocks and back into the Magnificent 7. Mike concluded by highlighting the sharp reversal in sentiment toward small modular reactor (SMR) companies. While SMR stocks were among the market's strongest performers entering 2026 amid growing enthusiasm for nuclear power, the group is now down roughly 30% on average year-to-date. Nick Morriss, Brett Rampal, and Veriten Senior Advisor Bill Flores also joined the discussion, contributing their perspectives and questions on nuclear energy and power.
Today we were joined by three outstanding guests to discuss one of the biggest long-term opportunities and challenges facing the Permian Basin: produced water. We were thrilled to welcome Adrianne Lopez, Research and Development Manager at Texas Pacific Water Resources, along with Dr. Scott Tinker, Chairman of Switch Energy Alliance and Director Emeritus of the Bureau of Economic Geology at the University of Texas, and Derek Tinker, Founder of Agnostic Data Group. We appreciated hearing each of their perspectives on why produced water has become one of the defining issues for the future of the Permian, the technologies making large-scale desalination increasingly feasible, and how produced water could become a valuable resource for agriculture, power generation, AI infrastructure, and beyond.
In our conversation, Scott explains the scale of the challenge, noting that the Permian now produces roughly 20 million barrels of water every day, with water-to-oil ratios continuing to increase across much of the basin. He outlines why disposing of that water through underground injection is becoming more difficult and more expensive, and argues that beneficial reuse represents one of the industry’s largest untapped opportunities. Adrianne walks us through the science behind produced water, explaining why it is significantly more difficult to treat than seawater. She details Texas Pacific’s work developing freeze desalination technology, the company’s new 10,000-barrel-per-day demonstration facility, and why reaching commercial scale, alongside continued regulatory progress, will be critical to improving the economics of produced water desalination.
We examine where this water could ultimately be used, from AI data centers and power generation to cotton production and land rehabilitation, and why collaboration between industry, regulators, and technology providers will be essential. We discuss the valuable minerals contained within produced water, including lithium, the role of AI and real-time monitoring in building public trust, and why transparent, independently verified water quality data are as essential as the treatment technology itself.
Scott argues that the industry already has many of the technologies needed to move forward. The remaining challenge, he suggests, is creating the economic incentives and regulatory certainty needed to scale solutions that can reduce disposal volumes while creating entirely new sources of water for Texas. As disposal costs continue to rise and desalination costs decline with scale, he believes operators have an opportunity to address a growing operational challenge while reinforcing the industry's long-term position in the Permian.
Mike Bradley opened the discussion by noting that market rotation has been the defining theme in recent trading. While Treasury yields moved modestly higher this week, investors are largely looking ahead to next week's CPI and PPI reports for potential market-moving data. Within equities, semiconductor stocks have pulled back sharply after leading the market for much of the year, while the Mag 7 have recently rebounded. In energy, the sector moved higher alongside a roughly $2/bbl increase in WTI crude to ~$70/bbl following renewed attacks on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Mike noted that oil markets appear to be pricing in a quick return to normal in the region, which may prove optimistic. He also highlighted that second-quarter earnings season begins in earnest during the week of July 20, with several oilfield services companies reporting results. U.S. natural gas prices strengthened on hotter summer weather, while European gas prices rose as below-normal inventories and geopolitical tensions supported the market. Mike concluded by highlighting the IEA's 3Q26 Gas Market Report, which projects global natural gas demand will decline 0.5% in 2026. Robby Kester also joined and added his technology perspective and questions throughout the conversation.
We will be staying close to this topic and hope you find the conversation as useful and informative as we did. Our best to you all!
Today we were thrilled to welcome Jeremy Fraenkel, CEO, and Brennan Demro, Chief Commercial Officer, of Fundamental. We had the opportunity to spend the day with Jeremy and Brennan in Houston visiting with a number of energy companies to discuss how Fundamental's AI technology can be applied across the industry. Fundamental is developing a new category of AI that helps enterprises turn structured data into predictive intelligence, enabling better forecasting, decision-making, and operational performance.
In our conversation, we discuss a critical but often underappreciated area of AI: structured and tabular data. Jeremy explains that while large language models have transformed how people work with text, code, images, and video, the vast majority of enterprise data still lives in structured formats, from spreadsheets and databases to sensor data and transaction logs. Fundamental has built Nexus, a foundation model trained on billions of tables. Jeremy and Brennan describe how Fundamental’s model differs from traditional LLMs, particularly around determinism, security, and enterprise deployment. While LLMs can produce different outputs with small changes in wording, Fundamental is designed to deliver consistent, auditable predictions for critical business decisions. We discuss how Fundamental complements large language models within agentic AI workflows, serving as the predictive engine for enterprise data while LLMs handle unstructured information. Rather than replacing LLMs, Jeremy argues that enterprise AI requires both capabilities: LLMs for language and reasoning, and purpose-built models for structured data and prediction.
Brennan highlights the company’s ability to deploy within a customer’s own environment, helping address major enterprise concerns around data security and control. We explore how their technology can be applied across energy, including predictive maintenance, asset optimization, demand forecasting, inventory and working capital management, and back-office efficiency. Brennan emphasizes that many energy companies are sitting on decades of rich but underutilized data, and how Fundamental’s approach can help unlock insights from those data sets while augmenting existing data science workflows rather than replacing them. We also touch on AI adoption, proof-of-concept challenges, governance, reliability, and the importance of pairing AI tools with measurable business ROI.
Mike Bradley opened the discussion by noting that financial markets have been relatively subdued over the past five trading days. He reviewed year-to-date performance across several key asset classes, including fixed income markets, broad equity indices, energy equities, electric-centric equities, and oil and natural gas commodities. He highlighted several significant market-moving events that have influenced performance across bonds, equities, and commodity markets this year, providing context behind recent market trends and investor sentiment. Robby Kester and Veriten Senior Advisor Deborah Byers also joined and added their technology perspectives and questions throughout the conversation.
We greatly enjoyed hosting Jeremy and Brennan in our offices and hope you enjoy the conversation as much as we did. To our Canadian friends, Happy Canada Day! And to everyone celebrating America's 250th Independence Day this week, we wish you a wonderful Fourth of July!
Today we were thrilled to welcome back Daan Struyven, Co-Head of Global Commodities Research and Managing Director, Head of Oil Research at Goldman Sachs. Daan joined Goldman in 2015 and previously co-led Goldman Sachs' Global Economics team as well as the firm’s Canada Economics research effort. Daan and his team recently wrote a report titled “EV Sales Acceleration Poses Downside Risk to Global Oil Demand.” We were pleased to hear Daan’s perspective on the report, the acceleration in global EV adoption following the Iran/Hormuz supply disruption, the outlook for global oil demand and oil prices, and what investors should be watching across the broader energy landscape.
In our conversation, we explore the key findings from Goldman Sachs’ recent research on EV adoption, including how higher fuel prices and concerns around energy security may have accelerated EV sales across several major global markets following the Iran/Hormuz supply disruption. We discuss the significant differences in EV penetration rates around the world, the growing influence of Chinese manufacturers, the importance of charging and power infrastructure, and the role government policy continues to play in shaping adoption trends. We examine the outlook for global oil demand, including Goldman’s view that oil demand continues to grow through 2040 despite rising EV adoption, supported by growing energy consumption and the limited availability of substitutes for petrochemical feedstocks and jet fuel.
We discuss the recovery of Middle East oil production and exports following the conflict, OPEC supply dynamics, strategic petroleum reserves and stockpiling activity, and why oil prices did not rise as much as many expected during the Iran war disruption. We touch on investor sentiment toward energy markets, China’s role as both a major EV market and a stabilizing force in global oil demand through stockpiling behavior, and tightening power markets driven by rising electricity demand from AI and data centers. We also discuss the interplay between future oil prices, power prices, and EV adoption. Finally, we cover advancements in battery technology, the long-term implications for both the energy transition and global commodity markets, and more. We greatly appreciate Daan for sharing his time and perspectives.
To start the show, Mike Bradley noted that market volatility is becoming more prevalent across asset classes. From a fixed income perspective, the 10-year Treasury yield is holding steady at approximately 4.5%, with traders closely focused on this week’s PCE Index as a key inflation indicator, particularly in light of the Federal Reserve’s more hawkish tone following last week’s FOMC meeting. In equities, he emphasized the increasing volatility observed in recent trading sessions, especially within Big Tech and the Nasdaq, with semiconductor and chip stocks coming under notable pressure and with several declining by more than 10%. He suggested that market leadership may be shifting, as the Nasdaq lags while the Dow Jones Industrial Average demonstrates relative resilience. Turning to commodities, WTI crude has fallen to around $73/bbl, marking its lowest level since the first week of the Iran conflict. WTI has broken below its 200-day moving average, indicating that oil appears “broken” from a technical trading perspective. He also highlighted a rapid shift in market sentiment, moving from concerns about tightening global inventories to fears that OPEC supply could increase sooner and more significantly than expected. In energy equities, he observed that the sector has declined modestly over recent trading days, with Oil Services bearing the brunt of the losses. Electric utilities have outperformed, serving as a temporary safe haven for investors. He ended by pointing out two notable headlines: first, a partnership between Chevron and Microsoft to develop a co-located power facility in West Texas that will supply electricity to a Microsoft-operated data center under a 20-year PPA; and second, the Department of Energy’s announcement of $17.5 billion in financing to help incentivize/jump start utilities to order equipment for large-scale nuclear reactors. Ellen Wilkirson made her COBT debut and added her questions and perspective to the discussion as well.
Today we were pleased to be joined by Steve Hilton, Republican candidate for Governor of California, for a wide-ranging discussion on California’s economic competitiveness, energy policy, affordability challenges, and the future of opportunity in the state.
In our conversation, Steve shared his perspective on the policies and reforms he believes are necessary to address California’s rising cost of living, high energy prices, housing affordability concerns, and broader economic challenges. He discussed his campaign proposals to reduce gasoline and electricity costs, reform the state’s tax structure, streamline government, and expand housing affordability. Steve outlined his views on California’s climate, energy, and regulatory policies, arguing for a more pragmatic approach focused on affordability, domestic energy production, economic growth, and reducing bureaucratic complexity.
Throughout the discussion, Steve emphasized that California’s long-standing strengths, including its innovation ecosystem, entrepreneurial culture, natural resources, and deep talent base, position the state for renewed growth and competitiveness. We explore the role energy policy plays in economic development, affordability, and business investment, along with the broader challenges facing one of the nation’s most influential economies. We appreciate Steve for sharing his time and look forward to staying in touch as the campaign continues.
Mike Bradley opened by noting that a peace agreement to end the 15-week war with Iran appears within reach, with a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) expected to be signed Friday that could lead to a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. While an MOU would represent an important milestone, the greater challenge will be ensuring both sides uphold their commitments. In oil markets, the prospect of a deal drove WTI down ~$8/bbl to ~$77/bbl, its lowest closing level since the first week of the conflict. Focus is now shifting to the post-war landscape, with oil strategists closely watching how quickly tanker traffic normalizes through the Strait of Hormuz and the pace at which OPEC restores supply. While traders appear increasingly bearish in the near term, Mike emphasized a more constructive intermediate-term outlook.
From an energy equity standpoint, the sharp decline in oil prices has weighed on the sector, with energy equities pulling back ~4% this week, making it the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500. The energy sector has effectively round-tripped since the start of the war (down ~2%). Despite this, the forward oil curve remains supportive, with the 12-month WTI strip at ~$73/bbl (~$10/bbl higher than pre-war levels), underscoring a more constructive medium-term outlook. Energy’s weighting in the S&P 500 has declined from ~3.5% (pre-war) to ~3.0%, even though recent events have reinforced the critical role of energy.
From a U.S. bond market standpoint, the 10-year bond yield (~4.45%) has drifted modestly lower this week. Consensus expects the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, with attention focused on forward interest rate guidance and Chairman Warsh’s tone and policy path going forward. From a broader equity market standpoint, the S&P 500 has gained ~1.0% this week, bringing it to within 1% of its all-time high. Several market leaders (Big Tech & Semis) pulled back on Tuesday and could signal an early crack in market leadership. He concluded by highlighting investor enthusiasm surrounding the recent SpaceX IPO (+20% on Day 1 and +45% since its debut), noting that the company is now the fifth-largest publicly traded company globally.
Today we were delighted to host Karl Hersvik, CEO of Aker BP, in our offices in Houston. Karl has served as CEO since 2014 and has overseen a period of significant growth and transformation at Aker BP. We were thrilled to hear Karl’s insights on operational excellence, artificial intelligence, data architecture, and the future of oil and gas. As you’ll hear, Aker BP has built a differentiated operating model centered on productivity, long-term alliance partnerships, and technology deployment.
In our conversation, Karl shares how Aker BP has achieved industry-leading operational performance through a relentless focus on continuous improvement, standardized workflows, and deep collaboration with key service providers. He explains why the company believes data should be treated as a strategic asset and how years of investment in data infrastructure have positioned Aker BP to become what he calls the industry's first "AI-native" oil and gas company.
We discuss how AI and agentic workflows are already accelerating engineering, operations, and exploration workflows across the company, enabling faster decision-making, improved productivity, and more efficient capital deployment. Karl introduces the concept of “vibe engineering,” the idea that engineering expertise can be codified into AI agents that perform work in parallel, allowing humans to focus more on training, oversight, and optimization. He argues that this shift has the potential to dramatically compress development timelines and fundamentally reshape how oil and gas projects are executed.
Karl provides a fascinating perspective on the future of the energy industry, arguing that AI will create a new generation of winners and losers, while increasing the importance of focus, culture, and organizational adaptability. He also shares his views on energy security, the evolving role of Norwegian oil and gas in Europe, and why resilience, not prediction, will be the defining competitive advantage in an increasingly volatile world. We greatly enjoyed the conversation.
Mike Bradley started the show by noting that the Iran war has entered its fifteenth week, with markets still largely trading around developments tied to the conflict. He emphasized that this week will be different, as both institutional and retail equity investors shift their attention to the upcoming SpaceX IPO—pricing Thursday. On the oil front, WTI is currently trading at ~$89/bbl, down ~$2 from last week’s close. He credited the Trump Administration with effectively maintaining a market narrative that a broader Iran resolution is imminent, which has helped keep WTI range-bound between $85 and $105/bbl. However, he cautioned that this narrative may begin to lose traction as markets head into the peak summer demand season. He also noted a gradual shift in oil strategist discussions toward the post-war landscape, particularly around how quickly shut-in production could return to pre-conflict levels. Turning to equities, he pointed out that the S&P 500 is modestly higher this week following a ~1.5% pullback last week, which ended a nine-week winning streak. He noted early signs of strain in the AI trade, as several semiconductor stocks experienced sharp corrections, prompting a rotation into more defensive sectors. He ended by highlighting that Equinor ASA will host its Capital Markets Day next week, marking the 25th anniversary of its listing on both the Oslo and New York Stock Exchanges.
Arjun Murti expanded on the Strait of Hormuz discussion by emphasizing that while no one knows exactly how the situation will unfold, current market stability is being supported by inventory draws, SPR releases, and lower Chinese imports, none of which are sustainable indefinitely. He cautioned that a prolonged disruption would ultimately risk a global recession by forcing significant demand destruction, reinforcing the need for a peaceful resolution and a rapid return of shut-in production. More broadly, he reiterated his "Geopolitical Super Vol" thesis, arguing that companies should stop planning around a single oil price outlook and instead prepare for a wide range of outcomes, from deep downturns to periods of $100+ oil. In his view, the winners will be businesses that can remain profitable through volatility, strengthen their balance sheets during periods of strong cash flow, and capitalize on opportunities when competitors are reluctant to invest.
Today we had the pleasure of hosting Steven Kobos, President and CEO of Excelerate Energy. Steven has served as President and CEO since 2018 and previously spent 11 years as a member of the company’s Board of Directors and corporate counsel. Throughout his career, he has worked across global energy markets, including Kuwait, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Argentina, Brazil, Finland, Germany, and the Middle East. Excelerate is a global leader in flexible LNG infrastructure solutions, focused on expanding access to reliable, affordable, and secure natural gas. The company operates one of the world's largest fleets of Floating Storage and Regasification Units (FSRUs) and provides integrated LNG solutions spanning the entire value chain. We were thrilled to hear Steven’s perspective on the evolving and increasingly complex global energy landscape.
In our conversation, we explore the evolution of the global LNG market, the impact of U.S. shale on Excelerate’s business model, and why the company has increasingly focused on integrated LNG and infrastructure solutions rather than simply providing floating regasification assets. We discuss the growing importance of energy security following recent geopolitical disruptions, including tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and Steven’s recent visit to the region, and the role LNG continues to play in supporting power generation, industrial growth, and economic development around the world. Steven walks us through Excelerate’s newest FSRU, the Acadia, the company’s expanding opportunities in Iraq, and how LNG imports are helping address power shortages and energy deficits across emerging markets.
We discuss the future growth of global LNG demand, the increasing shift toward long-term supply contracts, the advantages of floating infrastructure versus traditional onshore facilities, and Excelerate’s strategy of combining LNG supply with downstream infrastructure to open new markets. We also cover Argentina’s Vaca Muerta opportunity, Brazil’s hydro-backed power system, Finland’s experience with energy security following disruptions to regional gas infrastructure, the growing role of U.S. LNG exports, and the support provided by the Trump Administration to promote American energy abroad. Steven shares several personal anecdotes, including helping launch LNG imports into Kuwait, opening new LNG markets across South Asia, visiting customers throughout the Gulf during the recent conflict, and witnessing firsthand how access to reliable energy can transform communities and economies. We covered a great deal and appreciate Steven for sharing his time and insights.
Mike Bradley started the show by noting that markets continue to be driven almost entirely by on-and-off developments in the Middle East. Market sentiment last week was dominated by optimism that Iran and the U.S. were moving toward a Strait of Hormuz resolution, but this week has started with growing concern that a resolution may not be just around the corner. On the bond market front, the 10-year bond yield was trading at ~4.5% (up 6-7bps), driven by an Iranian resolution being pushed further to the right and constructive economic data. He noted that the May ISM Manufacturing report showed that U.S. manufacturing expanded at its fastest pace in four years. On the crude oil market front, WTI prices spiked ~$6/bbl (to $93/bbl) on concerns that an Iranian resolution could be delayed. The Strait of Hormuz needs to reopen quickly or risk global oil prices moving substantially higher, as oil markets enter the higher-demand summer months with critically low inventory levels. From an energy equity perspective, the Energy sector was up ~2% so far this week after a 5% pullback last week. On the broader equity market front, markets were modestly weaker as investors appeared unprepared for the prospect of an Iranian resolution being pushed further into the future. He ended by highlighting two IPOs scheduled to price over the next two weeks. Equity investors are most excited about the SpaceX IPO (expected to price next week at a ~$2T valuation). He also highlighted INNIO Holdings, a gas power system manufacturer that is expected to price later this week (raising ~$2B at a ~$20B valuation), which should provide a good read on how bullish sentiment remains across the engine manufacturing and distributed generation segments. Mark Castiglione added his questions and perspective to the discussion as well.
Today we were pleased to host Marshall Carver, Professor of Finance at Tulane University, who is currently in Beijing teaching students through a joint program with the University of China Academy of Social Sciences (UCAS). We have known Marshall since his time at Tudor Pickering Holt, and he has since built a 20+ year career in equity and debt research. He joined the Tulane faculty five years ago and teaches energy-focused courses including energy investment banking, financial modeling, risk management, and equity research. We were excited to visit with Marshall and hear his firsthand perspectives from China.
In our conversation, Marshall shares his experiences teaching energy finance and financial modeling in Beijing and his broader observations on China’s rapidly evolving energy, manufacturing, and technology landscape. We discuss China’s aggressive long-term focus on manufacturing, AI, renewable energy, batteries, EVs, automation, and infrastructure development through centralized five-year planning, and he explains why he believes China continues extending its lead across several energy transition industries. We explore parallels between the U.S. shale boom and China’s current EV and renewable energy expansion, including the intense competition, quick scaling, overcapacity concerns, and profitability challenges facing many companies.
Marshall outlines the differences he sees between Chinese and U.S. students in areas such as technology and AI tools, spreadsheet modeling, and engineering-focused education. We cover China’s growing emphasis on energy security and its increasingly “all-of-the-above” approach to energy development, including coal, nuclear, renewables, and EV infrastructure investments. We also discuss the country’s fast-growing EV ecosystem, long-range hybrid vehicles, AI and robotics adoption, and the broader geopolitical and industrial competition between China and the United States. We touch on demographic and real estate challenges within China, the role automation could play in offsetting labor constraints, and Marshall’s fascinating personal observations from spending significant time on the ground in Beijing. It was a highly interesting discussion, and we appreciate Marshall for sharing his time and insights.
Mike Bradley started the show by noting that this is a holiday-shortened trading week, with most markets trading on hopes of an imminent Iranian deal, even as those hopes are ironically being overshadowed by ongoing military strikes within the Gulf. On the bond market front, 10-year bond yields were trading just under 4.5% (down from a recent peak of ~4.7%) on optimism that inflation could begin to ease if a potential Iranian deal materializes. On the crude oil market front, WTI prices had pulled back to $92-$93/bbl (down $3-$4/bbl) amid growing optimism that an Iranian deal could be forthcoming. On the broader equity market front, markets continue to post new all-time highs (dialing in a significant amount of optimism), despite the ongoing cycle of weekly on-and-off talks with Iran. On the energy equity front, investors currently appear to be sitting on the sidelines, waiting to see which direction oil prices ultimately break. He ended by noting that energy investors also seem to be positioning for the next major Energy/Electric sector deal now that 1Q26 earnings calls are in the rearview mirror.
Arjun Murti discussed several major themes emerging from the ongoing Iran conflict and broader energy markets. He emphasized that nothing about the current geopolitical backdrop appears to be slowing the ongoing “power super cycle,” particularly given strong hyperscaler earnings, capex growth, and continued AI-driven electricity demand. He also pushed back on the idea that oil is entering a new long-term super cycle and reiterated Veriten’s view that the market environment is better characterized as “geopolitical super vol,” with continued spikes and pullbacks driven by geopolitical developments rather than structurally higher long-term oil prices. He outlined what Veriten is calling the “Four Ds” of pragmatic energy policy: maximizing domestic production, diversifying energy sources and technologies, doing more with existing assets, and embracing digital transformation and AI. Arjun ended by highlighting China as a notable example of a resource-constrained country pursuing an aggressive “all-of-the-above” strategy across coal, renewables, automation, and AI.
This week we had the exciting opportunity to travel to Anchorage, Alaska, to participate in the Fifth Annual Alaska Sustainable Energy Conference. The conference convenes researchers, industry leaders, entrepreneurs, policymakers, and investors to discuss the future of energy development, infrastructure, technology, and resource leadership across Alaska and the broader global energy landscape. We had the honor of moderating a discussion featuring Governor Mike Dunleavy and Chairman of the National Energy Dominance Council and U.S. Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum. Given Alaska’s strategic importance across energy, critical minerals, infrastructure, and geopolitics, it was a fascinating and timely discussion.
In our conversation, Governor Dunleavy emphasizes the dramatically improved partnership between the federal government and the State of Alaska under the current Administration, contrasting it with prior years when Alaska faced significant federal restrictions on development. Drawing on their experiences leading major energy-producing states, Governor Dunleavy and Secretary Burgum reflect on the operational, economic, and political realities of energy development and infrastructure investment. They walk us through renewed lease sale activity, rising investor interest in Alaska, and the broader role Alaska could play in supporting U.S. energy dominance and Western Hemisphere energy security. We explore the increasing importance of affordable, reliable, and secure energy in attracting manufacturing, AI infrastructure, and industrial investment, as well as the rapidly growing electricity demand tied to data centers and advanced technologies.
Secretary Burgum provides an overview of the Administration’s efforts to accelerate permitting reform and reduce regulatory bottlenecks, including examples of projects receiving approvals in weeks rather than years. We touch on domestic mining and critical mineral development, LNG exports, the role of nuclear, hydro, geothermal, and natural gas in future energy systems, and the Administration’s broader push to accelerate infrastructure and resource development across the United States. We cover the transformational potential of the Alaska LNG project, the growing energy needs of U.S. allies across Asia, the importance of codifying regulatory and permitting reforms for long-term investment certainty, and why Governor Dunleavy and Secretary Burgum both believe Alaska is entering a new “golden age” of development and opportunity. Thank you to Governor Dunleavy for inviting us and to Secretary Burgum for joining us for a thoughtful discussion on the future of Alaska, energy, and American economic development and energy security.
About Governor Mike Dunleavy
Governor Mike Dunleavy arrived in Alaska in 1983 as a young man looking for opportunity, and he found it. His first job was working in a logging camp in Southeast Alaska. Later on, Governor Dunleavy earned his teacher’s certificate, and then a Master of Education degree from the University of Alaska Fairbanks. He spent nearly two decades in northwest Arctic communities working as a teacher, principal, and superintendent.
Governor Dunleavy and his family moved to Wasilla in 2004, where he owned an educational consulting firm and worked on several statewide education projects. Dunleavy served on the Mat-Su Borough School Board, with two years as Board President, and then as a state senator for five years. Dunleavy was first elected Governor in 2018 and then again in 2022. Governor Dunleavy has kept the health of the economy and jobs at the forefront of his Administration’s policy setting initiatives and has been a true champion for the Alaskan business community.
Governor Dunleavy’s wife Rose is from the Kobuk River Valley community of Noorvik. Together, they have three children who were raised in both rural and urban Alaska. Governor Dunleavy is focused on moving Alaska forward and believes that our greatest years are yet to come if we work together to maximize our potential.
About Secretary Doug Burgum
Doug Burgum is the 55th Secretary of the U.S. Department of the Interior. Raised in Arthur, North Dakota, Burgum worked as a chimney sweep to help pay his way through North Dakota State University before earning an MBA from Stanford University. In 1983, Doug literally “bet the farm” to provide seed capital for a software startup called Great Plains. Doug led Great Plains through a successful IPO and grew the company to over 2,000 employees before its acquisition by Microsoft. Burgum remained with Microsoft for six years as the Senior Vice President of Business Solutions. Doug later co-founded Arthur Ventures and served as chairman for international software companies including Atlassian, SuccessFactors, and as a board member for Avalara.
In 2016, Burgum was elected to serve as North Dakota’s 33rd Governor. In 2020, he was re-elected in a landslide. Under his leadership, North Dakota passed the largest tax cut in state history and dramatically reduced red tape. As a testament to Burgum’s leadership, Forbes named him “America’s Best Entrepreneurial Governor.” During his tenure, North Dakota experienced the highest growth in real GDP and had the lowest unemployment rate in the country.
Burgum has three adult children. He is married to Kathryn Burgum, a nationally recognized advocate for addiction recovery.
We hope you enjoy today’s discussion as much as we did. This certainly won’t be our last trip to Alaska. Our best to you all!
Today we were thrilled to welcome back our good friend Roger Pielke Jr., Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and author of The Honest Broker on Substack (linked here). Roger’s research focuses on science and technology policy, climate policy, energy policy, extreme events and disasters, the politicization of science, governmental science advice, and sports governance. He is a Professor Emeritus at the University of Colorado Boulder and served as a professor in the Environmental Studies department for over 23 years. We were eager to visit with Roger to discuss the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s elimination of the RCP8.5 scenario. As always, we value Roger’s perspective and appreciate his insights on the latest trends in climate science and beyond.
In our conversation, we explore the evolving state of the decarbonization debate and how energy policy is increasingly being reframed beyond climate alone to include affordability, security, and reliability. Roger walks us through the significant and underreported decision to retire the extreme RCP8.5 climate scenario and explains the flawed assumptions, notably around global coal expansion, that underpinned its widespread use. We discuss the important distinction between scenarios and predictions, and how the misuse of these models shaped policy, regulation, and public perception for over a decade. We examine why climate scenarios have historically lagged real-world developments, the incentives across academia, media, and policy that reinforced reliance on extreme outcomes, and the growing gap between modeled projections and actual energy and emissions trends, including a shift toward more moderate long-term outcomes.
We cover the implications for infrastructure, capital allocation, insurance, and regulatory frameworks, including how these scenarios have been embedded in tools such as the social cost of carbon, as well as the need to revisit key inputs like population growth, and how these dynamics are playing out across regions grappling with real-world trade-offs between affordability and decarbonization. Roger highlights the limited awareness and media coverage surrounding these developments, despite their significance. More broadly, he discusses the opportunity to separate climate science from policy debates to enable a more pragmatic and less polarized approach to energy decision-making, while emphasizing the need for more dynamic, diverse, and frequently updated modeling frameworks going forward. It was a fascinating and insightful discussion.
Mike Bradley started the show by noting that even after 10 weeks, markets still seem consumed by and are trading on the Iran war. On the bond market front, the 10-year U.S. bond yield moved higher on Tuesday to ~4.45% due to a hot CPI print. U.S. bond yields have been inching higher amid increasing concern of what the Iran war could hold for short/long-term inflation.
On the broader equity market front, the S&P 500 continues to trade near all-time highs (dialing in optimism for an end to the Iran war), which appears somewhat disconnected from other markets. In the past 5 trading days, the S&P 500 was up ~1.5% with the Technology sector outperforming (up ~6%) as it seems to be retaking market leadership.
On the oil market front, WTI was trading at ~$102 per barrel (sideways from last Tuesday’s close). WTI price seems to have temporarily settled in an $85 to $105 per barrel trading range, with the lower end dialing in an end to the Iran war and the higher end a continuation. Mike also noted that Saudi Aramco's CEO warned this week that roughly one billion barrels of oil have been pulled from global storage and that an additional 500 million barrels could be pulled (even if the Iran war ends soon), which likely keeps oil prices elevated into 2027.
On the Energy sector fron
Today we were pleased to welcome Alfredo Álvarez, Industrial and Energy Leader at EY Latin America, for a wide-ranging discussion on the evolving energy, mining, and investment landscape across the region. Alfredo joined us from his office in Mexico City. We were especially excited to host Alfredo on Cinco de Mayo, as it felt like an opportune time to take a broader look at Latin America. In recent weeks and months, we have had several conversations focused on Argentina, Venezuela, Cuba, and Mexico. We were thrilled to hear Alfredo’s insights on capital flows, geopolitical dynamics, and development trends, as well as his perspective on the region’s evolving investment landscape.
In our conversation, Alfredo walks us through the evolving energy, mining, and industrial landscape across Latin America, highlighting the region’s significant resource base and growing strategic importance, particularly in mining, where Latin America holds a dominant share of global reserves. We discuss the resurgence in oil and gas activity across South America, including momentum in Argentina, Brazil, and Guyana, as well as early signs of reopening in Venezuela. We explore the shifting political and investment climate across the region, with improving conditions in countries such as Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Peru, alongside continued challenges in Mexico and Colombia. We cover China’s expanding role in Latin America through investment, financing, and trade, particularly in mining and infrastructure.
Alfredo shares his perspectives on emerging opportunities in frontier markets like Bolivia and Guyana, the growing role of digitalization in driving efficiency across energy and mining, and the broader theme of Latin America re-emerging as a compelling, albeit complex, destination for global capital. Thank you to Alfredo for joining us and sharing his thoughtful perspectives.
Jeff Tillery kicked off the show by noting that U.S. equity markets continue to push to new highs, with the S&P 500 up ~10–11% year-to-date and the Nasdaq up ~16%, even as crude prices have risen sharply. Despite this backdrop, the broader market appears to be largely shrugging off medium-term energy risks. Meanwhile, energy executives have become increasingly vocal about potential supply shortages, disruptions, and broader economic impacts. While some of that commentary may reflect industry positioning, there is a growing concern that prolonged energy constraints could create more meaningful economic headwinds. At the same time, early signs are emerging of increased domestic oil activity, with producers beginning to ramp up completion activity, suggesting increased oil output could follow. Mark Castiglione added his questions and perspective to the discussion as well.
Today we had the pleasure of hosting Eyck Freymann, Hoover Fellow at Stanford University and author of Defending Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War with China, published April 15 (linked here). His research focuses on strategies to preserve peace and protect U.S. interests and values in an era of systemic competition with China. He holds four degrees in history and China Studies form Oxford, Cambridge, and Harvard. In Defending Taiwan, Eyck outlines an integrated strategy to deter war with China and preserve an honorable peace. We appreciated the opportunity to explore the book’s key themes and hear Eyck’s perspective on a highly intricate geopolitical environment.
In our conversation, we explore the evolving geopolitical landscape surrounding China, Taiwan, and the broader U.S.-China strategic competition. Eyck shares his perspective that Taiwan is less the end goal and more the first “real test” of a much larger ambition by China to reshape the global order across technology, energy, and institutions. We discuss how Xi Jinping’s centralized leadership and long-term vision are shaping China’s approach and why understanding the motivations of a single decision-maker is increasingly important in assessing risk. We examine how deterrence is changing in this environment, with Eyck outlining the need for a more layered approach that spans diplomatic, military, economic, and strategic dimensions. We discuss how the longstanding policy of strategic ambiguity is being tested as the balance of power evolves, and what it means to deter not just a system, but a leader who may perceive a viable path to success under certain conditions.
We explore how a potential conflict over Taiwan may not begin with a traditional military invasion, but rather through more indirect forms of pressure, such as economic or regulatory actions that could force global companies to respond. Eyck highlights how these “gray zone” scenarios, alongside the strategic importance of Taiwan’s role in global semiconductor supply chains, could create difficult choices for the U.S. and its allies, particularly if escalation occurs outside of conventional military frameworks.
We also discuss the broader structure of an increasingly competitive and interconnected global system, as well as the growing importance of economic strategy, supply chains, and alliances in shaping outcomes. Eyck shares his view on the concept of “avalanche decoupling” as a more realistic pathway forward, alongside the need for stronger coordination with allies, a more robust defense industrial base, and renewed focus on domestic capacity. We also touch on the role of economic and financial pressure as a potential alternative to kinetic conflict, as well as the evolving dynamics between China and Russia. It was a dense and insightful conversation, and we’re thankful to Eyck for joining.
Mike Bradley started the show by noting that equity markets were moving sideways this week. In fixed income, he highlighted that 10-year Treasury yields were trading around 4.35%, driven by a better-than-expected consumer sentiment report. Looking ahead, Wednesday’s FOMC meeting is expected to result in no change to interest rates. However, Chairman Powell’s press conference will be closely watched, particularly for commentary on global supply chain disruptions stemming from the Iran conflict and the potential implications for both near- and longer-term inflation. In equities, markets continue to hover near all-time highs, with many investors viewing conditions as technically overbought and reflecting optimism around a potential resolution to the Iran conflict. In oil markets, WTI was trading near $100/bbl (up $8/bbl from last Tuesday’s COBT), largely due to the absence of a finalized Iran deal. Within the energy sector, investor focus has cent
Today we greatly enjoyed hosting William Su, Head of Public Energy Equities and Director of Research & Portfolio Manager, Fundamental Equities, at BlackRock. Will has an extensive career in research, investing, and commodities, and brings a valuable perspective to the global energy investor landscape. We were thrilled to visit with Will on how energy, geopolitics, and technology are increasingly intersecting to shape markets and investment frameworks.
In our conversation, we explore a market environment increasingly defined by volatility, geopolitical risk, and a growing disconnect between financial signals and physical realities. Will shares how investors are navigating uncertainty, balancing near-term volatility with a longer-term framework that emphasizes probabilities, team-based insight, and disciplined portfolio construction. We discuss a shift underway in how risk is being assessed, with greater focus on tail risks, diversification, and the role of real assets and infrastructure alongside traditional equities and fixed income.
Will outlines the emergence of a “two-track” global economy: on one hand, AI-driven investment and growth remain robust, providing a meaningful tailwind to GDP and equity markets; on the other, energy and commodity markets are tightening, with supply disruptions, infrastructure damage, and constrained capacity creating more persistent, structural risks that may take years to fully resolve. This divergence is reshaping how capital is allocated across sectors and regions, with increasing attention on energy security and the relative advantages of North American supply.
We examine the growing intersection of AI and energy and how AI is increasingly acting as a demand catalyst, reinforcing the need for reliable, scalable power and positioning oil, gas, and other hard assets as critical enablers of future growth. We also discuss the practical constraints around building the infrastructure needed to support this growth across data centers, power generation, and supply chains, as well as the broader re-emergence of energy as a central pillar of economic and market dynamics, with important implications for growth, policy, and global stability. We covered a great deal and appreciate Will for sharing his time and insights.
Mike Bradley started the show by noting that the next 24 hours could be very important and volatile for commodity and equity markets, given that President Trump’s ceasefire deadline was approaching. On the oil market front, he noted that WTI oil prices had traded up ~$9/bbl (to ~$92/bbl) this week, after closing down ~$11/bbl to ~$84/bbl last Friday, driven by concerns that the Iranian ceasefire deadline could be breached. On the broader equity market front, the S&P 500 had recently traded to all-time highs, supported by growing optimism over the past few weeks that an Iranian peace agreement and full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz were imminent. Equity markets over the last 30 days have shifted from technically “oversold” to “overbought” levels, which could present near-term risks.
With 1Q earnings season underway, Mike expects most companies to meet estimates but noted concern that the eight-week closure of the Strait of Hormuz will begin to work its way through global supply chains and negatively impact future quarterly results. In the Energy sector, investors are focused this week on Oil Services 1Q results. Halliburton (HAL) indicated on its 1Q call that North America (NAM) activity is showing clear signs of being in the “early innings” of a recovery. This theme is consistent with our view that a number of E&Ps will signal on their 1Q calls a shift toward modest oil production growth in 2H26.
Today we were fortunate to visit with our good friend Michael Mische, Associate Professor of Management at the University of Southern California’s Marshall School of Business. We were particularly interested in discussing his latest article, “California Gasoline Supply Outlook: A Disaster in the Making” (linked here). The article outlines a near-term outlook of acute gasoline supply shortages in California, driven by refinery closures, declining in-state crude production, and disrupted imports, raising the likelihood of higher prices and potential physical shortages in the weeks ahead. Mike Bradley and Maynard were pleased to hear Michael’s perspectives on this important and timely issue.
In our conversation, Michael walks us through the combined impact of declining in-state crude production, refinery closures, import dependence, California’s special gasoline blend requirements, and how these factors have contributed to a more constrained and less flexible fuel system. We discuss how recent global supply disruptions are interacting with these structural dynamics, tightening inventories and increasing the risk of near-term supply pressures.
We also explore affordability, regulatory complexity, and the broader policy tradeoffs shaping California’s energy system, including the role of fuel standards, taxation, and investment incentives. Michael shares his perspective on potential policy responses, including both state-level actions and a set of proposed federal executive orders aimed at increasing production, supporting refining capacity, and accelerating critical infrastructure. We examine potential pathways forward, from temporary regulatory adjustments to longer-term solutions such as expanding production, refining capacity, and pipeline infrastructure, and what these considerations could mean for consumers, policymakers, national security, and the evolving political landscape in the state. We greatly appreciate Michael for sharing his time and insights.
Today we were pleased to welcome Doug Lambert, Co-Founder and Chief Operating Officer of Saronic Technologies. Doug, alongside Dino Mavrookas (CEO), Rob Lehman (CCO), and Vibhav Altekar (CTO), co-founded Saronic in 2022 to advance maritime superiority through intelligent autonomous systems. Saronic’s mission is to equip the U.S. and its allies with advanced autonomous surface vessels, enhancing situational awareness and enabling more effective detection, tracking, and response to emerging maritime threats. The company recently closed a $1.75B Series D at a $9.25B valuation and announced a new downtown New Orleans office to support its expanding shipbuilding operations in Louisiana. We were thrilled to spend time with Doug and explore autonomy, maritime innovation, and the future of naval and offshore operations.
In our conversation, Doug provides an overview of Saronic, their product range, and rapid growth to ~1,500 employees. We discuss the convergence of enabling technologies (AI, machine learning, edge compute, and advanced sensors) that have made true maritime autonomy possible, why this moment is different from prior attempts, and the combination of technology breakthroughs, market tailwinds, and geopolitical developments that have accelerated adoption. We explore Saronic’s approach to designing purpose-built autonomous vessels, as well as their decision to vertically integrate across design, manufacturing, and operations, highlighting how scale production, control of the full system, and a data-driven flywheel are critical to driving down costs and unlocking broader adoption.
We examine the strategic implications of autonomy and how these platforms act as force multipliers across defense, offshore energy, and critical infrastructure. Doug shares his perspective on the concept of a hybrid fleet, where autonomous systems augment traditional assets, extend reach, and improve safety, and how this shift could reshape maritime strategy over time. We cover the importance of edge-based decision making versus cloud reliance, and how real-world deployment and data collection underpin both performance and competitive advantage.
We also touch on the broader industrial and cultural backdrop, including the reindustrialization of U.S. shipbuilding, the blending of software and skilled trades, and the growing importance of building in the physical world. We discuss workforce dynamics, labor constraints in maritime, adoption challenges, the gap between technical readiness and real-world trust as autonomy moves from concept to scaled deployment, and much more. It was a wide-ranging discussion and we’re thankful to Doug for sharing his time and unique insights.
Mike Bradley started the show by noting that the 10-year bond yield had moved down to ~4.27% following a softer-than-expected March PPI report (YoY +4%). While still elevated, the print came in well below consensus and remains far below the 11.7% peak seen during the Biden Presidency. On the oil market front, WTI was trading at ~$92/bbl, down $6–$7 on the day and $4–$5 since President Trump announced the Strait of Hormuz blockade over the weekend. He noted that global oil prices also moved lower on optimism around a potential second round of Iranian peace talks, as well as a meaningful downward revision (~730 kbpd) to the IEA’s 2026 demand outlook. Traders are now less focused on how high prices could go and more focused on how low they could fall if and when the Strait of Hormuz reopens. On the broader equity market front, the S&P 500 was up ~1% on the day and trading within ~0.5% of its all-time high, highlighting a notable divergence between energy market concerns and broader market optimism. Within equities, Energy was the worst-performing S&P sector on the day and has effectively round-tripped since the onset of the Iran conflict, now down ~11% from its March peak. Looking ahead, Oil Services Q1 earnings begin next
Today we had the unique opportunity to record COBT live from the Gulf Coast Power Association’s (GCPA) Annual Spring Conference in Houston. Joining us on stage were Mary Anne Brelinsky, President and Chief Commercial Officer of Alpha Generation, and Sean Kelly, CEO of Amperon. We were thrilled to explore the current power landscape with Sean and Mary Anne.
In our conversation, we examine the growing complexity of operating in today’s power markets, with Mary Anne explaining how managing a multi-ISO portfolio requires constant coordination across operations, commercial teams, and real-time decision-making in the face of shifting weather patterns, fuel volatility, and evolving regulations. She emphasizes that forecasting remains one of the industry’s biggest challenges, as decisions are made daily with imperfect information and an increasingly dynamic grid where supply and demand must be balanced in real time. Sean builds on these themes by discussing how Amperon is using AI and machine learning to improve forecasting accuracy, streamline workflows, and help customers navigate volatility, noting that the sheer volume of data has made traditional approaches obsolete. We cover the rapid acceleration in power demand driven by AI, data centers, and broader electrification trends, with Sean highlighting that while not all projected load will materialize, the directional shift is real and significant.
Mary Anne emphasizes the growing importance of reliability, resilience, and cybersecurity, noting that as more critical infrastructure becomes electrified, the stakes for keeping the grid secure and operational continue to rise. We discuss how the industry’s focus has shifted from improving efficiency to increasing output, with Mary Anne highlighting efforts to expand capacity at existing plants as one of the fastest and most practical solutions. Sean adds that capital is now flowing back into the power sector in a meaningful way, describing this as a structural turning point where electricity is finally being recognized as foundational to economic growth. We touch on increasing public and political attention on power markets, infrastructure bottlenecks, and the growing role of demand-side and behind-the-meter solutions in managing peak load. We close on the idea that while this may be one of the most challenging periods the industry has faced, it is also one of the most exciting, given the scale of opportunity and the critical role power will play in shaping the future.
Mike Bradley kicked off the discussion by emphasizing that markets are extremely volatile and remain sharply focused on President Trump’s Iran deadline (Tuesday evening) and his threat to bomb strategic targets, including bridges and electric generation assets. From a bond market perspective, the 10-year yield was trading at ~4.3%, with bonds taking their cue from developments in the Iran war and the associated commodity price fallout. Bond investors appear to be largely ignoring upcoming economic reports, including March CPI, and are instead trying to better understand what the Iran war could mean for long-term inflation. From an oil market perspective, WTI closed at ~$110/bbl, up ~$8/bbl over the last five trading days. Seaborne barrels appear to be a better representative of the true “physical” oil market, with Dated Brent surging to over $140/bbl this week. Oil traders seem focused on how high prices might rise with further escalation, while long-term investors appear more focused on when and how far oil prices might plunge once the Strait of Hormuz is reopened. On the broader equity market front, the S&P 500 was up ~3.5% over the last week and appears to be pricing in some modest optimism for an off-ramp in the Iran war. Energy, however, was the worst-performing sector over the same period, down ~3.5%, with most Energy subsectors down 1% to 4%. On a YTD basis, though, Energy remains by far the best-performing S&P sec
Today we greatly enjoyed hosting Dr. Tatiana Mitrova, Global Fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy, Director of the New Energy Advancement Hub, and Senior Research Fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. Tatiana is an expert in energy systems, geopolitics, energy markets, and institutional decision-making, with particular emphasis on structural constraints, resilience, and risk. Born in Russia and now based in Cyprus, she brings a valuable perspective to the current turbulence involving Russia, Ukraine, Iran, and the broader global energy system.
In our conversation, we explore how the Russia-Ukraine war has evolved into a form of energy warfare, with drone attacks and other strikes increasingly targeting refineries, export terminals, pipelines, and broader energy infrastructure, forcing Russia’s energy sector to shift from traditional energy security toward physical asset defense. We cover the interaction between the Ukraine war and the Iran conflict, particularly how higher oil prices, tighter global supply, and diverted U.S. attention are giving Russia additional strategic and financial breathing room, even as attacks on infrastructure create export constraints. Tatiana explains that the more realistic risk for Russia is not near-term collapse but gradual degradation, as the Kremlin continues to prioritize war spending over civilian welfare and relies on oil revenues, reserves, and social insulation to sustain the system. She also outlines why territorial gains in Ukraine remain essential to Putin’s domestic legitimacy, making a negotiated settlement far more difficult.
We discuss the likely Russian summer offensive, Ukraine’s growing effectiveness in drone warfare, and the increasing vulnerability of Russian energy infrastructure. Tatiana walks through the domestic backdrop inside Russia, including war fatigue without viable opposition, a population shaped by a strong “fortress Russia” narrative, and a growing divide between insulated urban populations and regions bearing the human cost of the war. We touch on Russia’s longer-term positioning, including the ongoing pivot of energy exports away from Europe and toward China and India, the pricing and dependency risks embedded in that shift, and why Russia views the Iran conflict opportunistically rather than ideologically. She also explains how she thinks about the broader U.S.-China-Russia power dynamic, in which energy flows remain a central lever. We close by covering the longer-term social and economic consequences of the war inside Russia, including the implications of large-scale mobilization, reintegration challenges for returning soldiers, and the reality that the full costs of this conflict are likely to unfold over a decade or more rather than in the immediate term.
For additional reading, Tatiana’s article, “Russia’s Hormuz Dividend: Revenue, Leverage, and Limits,” is linked here. Another recent article, “How the Iran War Is Changing Europe’s Energy Transition,” is linked here. It was an insightful discussion, and we can’t thank Tatiana enough for sharing her time and thoughts with us.
Mike Bradley started the show by noting that U.S. equity markets were up 1.5% to 2.0% on the day, while the 10-year U.S. government bond yield was modestly lower and global oil prices were higher (Brent up ~$6/bbl and WTI up ~$2/bbl). He highlighted that the Iran war has entered its second month, provided a handful of monthly energy and equity market performance statistics, and noted that there still appears to be a real disconnect in oil markets (“physical” versus “financial/paper”) and between oil markets (up 55% to 65%) and U.S. equity markets (down ~7%).
This week we were thrilled to welcome back Captain John Konrad, Founder and CEO of gCaptain and author of Fire on the Horizon. With the shipping situation in the Middle East rapidly evolving, John was the perfect expert to help us think through the many angles of this complex and multifaceted situation. As you will hear, this episode runs longer than our standard sixty minutes given the scope of the discussion.
In our conversation, John shares his perspective on how the Strait of Hormuz crisis fits into a broader and longer-running pattern of maritime disruption, naval vulnerability, and rising geopolitical risk. He argues that the key issue is not whether the U.S. anticipated this scenario, but how difficult it is to reopen a chokepoint like Hormuz when insurance markets, shipowner behavior, naval constraints, and broader strategic calculations all intersect. We explore the importance of war-risk insurance and tanker availability, and why “hulls in the water” may be one of the most underappreciated variables in the global energy system today.
John walks us through the cascading implications for LNG, fertilizer, desalination, and refined product markets, along with the growing regional fragmentation of energy prices as flows are disrupted. We discuss the role of operational surprise, the limits of European naval capacity, the complications associated with coalition rules of engagement, and why recent U.S. military effectiveness may, in part, reflect a more unilateral operating approach. We examine the broader maritime picture, including the decline of the U.S. merchant marine, the renewed push for American shipbuilding and maritime strategy, the key shipping and naval indicators John is watching most closely, and much more.
Mike Bradley started the show by highlighting the apparent disconnect between “paper/financial” barrels and “physical” oil barrels. He noted that WTI oil price was up ~$3/bbl on the day, to ~$91/bbl, while Brent price was also higher by a similar amount (~$104/bbl). The Brent-WTI oil spread has blown out to a 10-year high ($13 to $15/bbl). Mike also pointed out that Oman oil barrels destined for Asia recently traded at ~$180/bbl, reinforcing the view that physical markets remain far tighter than paper prices suggest. He closed by noting that “financial” markets, both oil and equity, appear to be dialing in a much quicker and more optimistic resolution to the Strait of Hormuz closure than what may ultimately prove to be the case.
About John Konrad
Captain John Konrad is the founder and CEO of gCaptain, one of the world’s most-read maritime news websites, and a member of the Pentagon Press Corps. He holds a USCG Master Unlimited license. John studied naval architecture at the U.S. Naval Academy before graduating from SUNY Maritime College with a degree in Marine Transportation. His decade at sea included service aboard Military Sealift Command-operated ships, crude-oil supertankers running to Valdez, and dynamically positioned drillships supporting deepwater projects. In industry leadership roles, he participated in major offshore exploration and drilling campaigns, including the KG-D6 discovery with Reliance Industries and world record-setting deepwater work with Chevron. On April 20, 2010, John had finished overseeing the $750 million Deep Ocean Ascension newbuild project for BP when the Deepwater Horizon exploded. His seven years at Transocean and personal ties to members of the Horizon crew drove him to investigate the disaster, resulting in Fire on the Horizon (HarperCollins, 2011). In 2025, he co-authored Returning from Ebb Tide: Renewing the United States Commercial Maritime Enterprise for Marine Corps University Press. John has contributed to publications including Forbes, CIMSEC, Lloyd’s List, and the U.S. Coast Guard Compass, and has appeared on outlets including NPR and the BBC. He is an Associate Fellow of the Nautical Institute and a membe
Like many of you, we have been following the recent developments in Cuba very closely. We were fortunate to sit down with Sebastián Arcos, Interim Director of the Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University, for a Special Edition COBT to discuss what is happening on the island and what it may mean going forward. Sebastián brings both deep personal experience and substantive expertise to the conversation. Born in Havana, he joined the Cuban Committee for Human Rights in 1987, left Cuba for the United States in 1992, and later served as part of the Freedom House delegation to the U.N. Human Rights Commission. He also advised the U.S. Department of State on human rights issues related to Cuba from 1998 to 2000 and earned both his Bachelor’s Degree in International Relations and Master’s Degree in Public Administration from FIU. We were thrilled to host Sebastián for such a timely and important discussion.
In our conversation, Sebastián outlines the long economic decline that has brought Cuba to its current position, including the collapse of Soviet support, the island’s dependence on imported oil, and the central role Venezuela has played in sustaining the regime. We explore Cuba’s worsening demographic crisis, the mass exodus of recent years, and the ways in which energy shortages, blackouts, and economic deterioration are now colliding with a deeply centralized political system still shaped by Raúl Castro, the military, and the opaque power structure behind the civilian government. Sebastián walks us through how he thinks about a possible Cuban transition, arguing that real change would require political reform before economic reform, a credible transitional figure, and a negotiated process that includes both the opposition inside Cuba and the exile community outside it. We discuss the role of the U.S. and the pressure campaign now bearing down on Havana, the importance of Marco Rubio and Mexico as external variables, the unresolved question of property rights, and the sectors that could attract investment in a post-transition Cuba, from tourism and minerals to manufacturing and services. Along the way, Sebastián draws striking parallels between Cuba and Iran, highlights the unique links between Cuba and Venezuela, and offers a clear-eyed view of what it would take for Cuba to move from totalitarian rule toward a democratic future. We greatly appreciate Sebastián for sharing his candid insights into a complex situation.
Mike Bradley started the show with a few details on Cuba’s electricity generation and energy production. He noted that Cuba has 6-7gw of electricity generation (~95% oil/fossil fuel). Cuba’s oil production is ~30kbpd (~65kbpd at its peak in 2003), its oil consumption is ~120kbpd, and 80-90kbpd of its oil imports were primarily supplied by Mexico and Venezuela prior to the de facto U.S. oil embargo started around January 2026. Veriten Senior Contributor Gabe Collins peppered in his questions and perspective to the discussion as well.
We hope you find today’s discussion as insightful and interesting as we did. Our best to you all!
We are excited to share this on-the-road COBT featuring Deputy Secretary Kate MacGregor, Representative Pete Stauber, and Mike Minarovic, CEO of Arena Energy. Deputy Secretary MacGregor first joined the Department of the Interior in 2017, served in senior leadership roles during the first Trump Administration, and returned as Deputy Secretary in 2025 after serving as Vice President of Environmental Services at NextEra Energy. Representative Stauber is serving his fourth term in Congress and serves on the House Natural Resources Committee, where he chairs the Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources, in addition to serving on the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee and the Small Business Committee. Last week, our team traveled to one of Arena’s rigs off the coast of Louisiana, where we had the opportunity to tour the facility, meet members of the crew, and sit down for a wide-ranging discussion on energy, minerals, permitting, and the policy landscape shaping the industry.
Our conversation with Pete, Kate, and Mike covered the strategic importance of Gulf of America oil and gas production, the role federal lease sales and royalty policy play in driving investment, and the Trump Administration’s push to accelerate permitting and restore regulatory certainty across energy and minerals. We discuss Interior’s central role in shaping U.S. energy policy, how development on public lands generates revenue that is reinvested back into national assets, how those lands are being viewed through both conservation and productive-use lenses, and why regulatory certainty is critical for long-term investment. We explore why domestic mining and critical minerals have become central to national security, how geopolitical instability is reinforcing the need for resilient American energy supply chains, how Gulf production remains physically connected to consumers across the country, and why affordability, reliability, and baseload power have moved back to the center of the policy conversation. We touch on AI’s growing role in upstream operations, Alaska’s renewed development potential, litigation reform, coal’s resurgence in the reliability debate, the workforce culture required to attract and retain skilled talent across the industrial economy, and much much more. We greatly enjoyed the conversation.
We can’t thank the Arena team enough for their hospitality and coordination in making this trip happen. We hope you enjoy the conversation as much as we did. And as always, thanks to you all for your friendship and support!
Today we had the honor of welcoming back Dr. Dan Yergin, Vice Chairman of S&P Global and Chairman of CERAWeek. Dan is a Pulitzer Prize-winning author, one of the most respected voices in energy, and a longtime authority on the intersection of energy, geopolitics, and the global economy. He is also the author of The Prize, The Quest, and The New Map, books that have helped shape how the industry understands energy history, markets, and geopolitical risk. With CERAWeek kicking off on March 23, we were delighted to hear Dan’s latest insights on the evolving energy landscape, along with a preview of the key themes and conversations likely to shape this year’s conference (current agenda available here).
Our conversation began with Dan’s perspective on how recent events in Iran have dramatically changed the backdrop heading into CERAWeek, and why the market may have been too complacent in the early days of the disruption. Dan shares his view that bad policy is often made under duress, reminds us that oil prices were already moving higher during the Gulf buildup, and explains why this moment should be viewed through a broader lens than just the formal start of the conflict itself. We explore the themes likely to shape CERAWeek this year, including the growing convergence of energy, power, and tech, the role of gas and electricity in the AI buildout, the importance of critical minerals and copper, infrastructure and permitting, nuclear, and the future direction of upstream oil and gas. We touch on Europe’s continued energy vulnerability, the renewed importance of U.S. LNG, the prospect of Europe once again competing with Asia for cargoes, the unique risks that LNG faces through the Strait of Hormuz, and the broader implications for global gas markets. We discuss the range of outcomes for Gulf production shut-ins, why U.S. producers are unlikely to react to short-term price spikes, how insurance, freight costs, and physical security are shaping traffic through the Strait, and what the performance of the U.S. and Israeli militaries indicates about the scale of planning behind this operation. We also look at the longer-term questions underneath the current crisis, including the changing role of Gulf capital, the infrastructure limits around the Strait, the historic arc of Iran’s posture in the region, and why the convergence of tech and energy may be one of the most important and constructive forces shaping the industry today. As always, it was an insightful and thought-provoking discussion. Many thanks to Dan for sharing his perspective and time with us all.
Mike Bradley started the show by noting that the market conversation this week has once again been focused on U.S. strikes against Iran and the short- and intermediate-term fallout across commodities and equities. In crude, he highlighted that WTI has moved from the mid-$60s/bbl before the war to ~$85/bbl, after peaking near $120/bbl on Sunday night into Monday morning. The effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has been the main driver for global oil prices, with Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia cutting production by 5–7 mmbpd due mostly to onshore oil storage constraints. WTI fell roughly $10/bbl in Tuesday’s trading due to rumors of a potential coordinated global SPR release of 300–400 million barrels. This war in Iran, at this point, should be viewed differently than the Ukraine war from an oil, natural gas, and economic standpoint. Global oil prices peaked about one month into that conflict, EU natural gas prices peaked roughly six months in, and economic stats such as U.S. CPI and PPI were significantly higher than today, so the pain threshold heading into this war seems more manageable. On the Energy equity front, the Energy sector is flattish since the Iran war started, significantly underperforming oil prices, with investors choosing not to chase energy equities with the move h
Today we had the honor of welcoming three powerhouse guests from Lazard for an engaging discussion at the intersection of geopolitics, global security, and energy markets. Joining us were Admiral Bill McRaven, Retired Four-Star Admiral in the U.S. Navy and Senior Advisor at Lazard, Theodore Bunzel, Head of Lazard Geopolitical Advisory, and George Bilicic, Vice Chairman and Global Head of Power, Energy and Infrastructure. Bill is a Professor of National Security at the University of Texas Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs and previously served as Chancellor of the University of Texas System. During his military career, he commanded special operations forces at every level and led U.S. Special Operations Command. He oversaw the missions to capture both Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein. He joined Lazard as a Senior Advisor in 2021. Teddy has spent his career at the intersection of international political and economic affairs and financial services. He joined Lazard from BlackRock and also serves as a Non-Resident Fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy. George Bilicic previously led Lazard’s Midwest Advisory Business and has over 20 years of experience at Lazard in the investment banking business. His prior roles include senior positions at Cravath, Merrill Lynch, KKR, and Sempra Energy.
Our conversation began with Bill’s insights into the situation in Iran and the broader Middle East, including what we are learning four days in, the difference between a more “surgical” campaign and a broader strike strategy, and the ways Tehran may try to expand the conflict and prolong it. Bill shares his assessment of the military operation so far, why Iran’s missile and drone response was expected, what surprised him tactically, how decentralizing command and control complicates targeting, and why regime change is far more complex than simply removing leadership. We explore the risks around the Strait of Hormuz, the realities of stockpiles and logistics, the strain of sustained deployments, and what seamless U.S.-Israel military coordination signals to China and Russia as they assess this new geopolitical map. George outlines what this volatility is doing in boardrooms around the world, from capital allocation and cost of capital to supply chain realignment, tariff sensitivity, and the growing premium on reliable 24/7 power. Teddy explains how Lazard integrates real-time geopolitical analysis into client strategy, why regulatory decision-making is becoming more discretionary, how European leaders are grappling with structural energy vulnerability and higher costs, how allies and European boardrooms are reassessing U.S. reliability, and why “trusted supply” is becoming central to LNG contracting and long-term energy security. We end by looking at the uncertain path forward, including the limits of prediction, the sustainability of current operations, and how geopolitics is increasingly embedded in corporate decision-making. Thank you to Bill, Teddy, and George for the insightful and timely discussion.
Mike Bradley started off by noting that this week’s macro conversation has been dominated by U.S. military strikes against Iran and the potential short- and intermediate-term market fallout. In rates, the 10-year Treasury yield moved up to 4.06% (up 12 bps), while some perceived safe havens like gold and silver were ironically lower on the week. In crude, WTI spiked Tuesday to roughly $78/bbl before pulling back to around $74/bbl, amid reports that the Strait of Hormuz was effectively shut—halting approximately 15 mmbpd of oil shipments. Oil retraced from intraday highs as markets focused on President Trump proposing financial security and military escorts for tankers in and out of the Gulf, rather than an SPR release. Refined products moved sharply higher, with wholesale diesel, gasoline, and heating oil up roughly 20% this week. Globally, Qatari LNG was shut down for the first time in 30+ years, help
We are pleased to share this Special Edition with Jay Timmons, President and CEO of the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM). Jay has led NAM since 2011 and first joined the organization in 2005 as Executive Vice President. As the leading voice for U.S. manufacturers, NAM sits at the center of policy, economic, and workforce issues shaping American industry today. The NAM team is currently in Houston as part of its State of Manufacturing Tour, traveling across New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Texas, and Arizona, to spotlight the policies and conditions needed for the U.S. to compete and win in a global economy. We were thrilled to host Jay and hear his perspective on domestic manufacturing, the evolving regulatory and trade landscape, supply chain resilience, energy policy, and the future of U.S. competitiveness in an increasingly complex global environment.
In our conversation, Jay outlines what he’s hearing from manufacturers on NAM’s State of Manufacturing Tour, starting with energy. Manufacturers consume roughly 30% of U.S. energy, and Jay emphasizes why affordable, reliable supply and delivery infrastructure are foundational to competitiveness. We discuss tax policy and why Jay views the 2017 reforms as “rocket fuel” for manufacturing investment, hiring, and wage growth, along with the importance of durable, codified provisions that give companies the certainty to deploy long-cycle capital. We cover the workforce gap (~433,000 open manufacturing jobs today and a projected 2 million by 2033), digging into what’s working on the ground, from community college partnerships to the modern return of shop class and continuous upskilling. Jay makes the case for bipartisan, skills-oriented immigration reform to support economic growth. We explore permitting and legal reform, where he emphasizes that manufacturing thrives on certainty and calls for a coordinated federal process that delivers faster “yes or no” decisions with guardrails to prevent endless litigation. On trade, we touch on tariff uncertainty, the importance of renewing and strengthening USMCA (particularly addressing transshipment), and the strategic value of North American supply chains, especially given the sizeable percent of manufacturers’ customers reside outside U.S. borders. We discuss AI and supply chain realities, why Jay sees AI as additive and a multiplier for productivity, and how even running at full capacity, the U.S. can only produce about 84% of what it needs today, driving NAM’s proposal for a “speed pass” to import critical inputs duty-free as domestic capacity scales. We also examine the broader manufacturing multiplier effect, the U.S.-China competitive dynamic, and why policy stability ultimately determines whether the U.S. can compete and win. It was a wide-ranging and insightful discussion and we’re grateful to Jay and his team for carving out time to stop by during a busy tour. For further reading, NAM’s AI & Energy Dominance Roadmap is linked here.
Mike Bradley kicked off the show with a quick update, noting that broader equity markets were down modestly on the day as all eyes were focused on NVIDIA’s quarterly results. NVIDIA surpassed expectations and delivered solid forward guidance, but the stock was underperforming given that investors are growing wary it can sustain this explosive revenue growth beyond the next couple of years.
Thank you to Leslie Beyer for connecting us with Jay and his team. And thanks to you all for your support and friendship!
Today we had the very exciting and interesting opportunity to visit with Dr. Fiona Murray, Professor of Entrepreneurship and Co-Director of the Innovation Initiative at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Fiona is an internationally recognized policy expert on innovation ecosystems and the transformation of investments in science and technology into deep-tech startup ventures that address global challenges. In addition to her roles at MIT, where she previously served as an Associate Dean for Innovation, she is Chair of the NATO Innovation Fund and an Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research. She was awarded a Commander of the Order of the British Empire for her services to innovation and entrepreneurship in the United Kingdom. Fiona also serves on the UK Ministry of Defence Innovation Advisory Panel and the European Innovation Council Joint Expert Group and sits on a number of boards. We were thrilled to host Fiona to explore global markets, innovation ecosystems, and the shifting geopolitical landscape shaping technology and capital flows.
In our conversation, Fiona shares her perspective on the intersection of geopolitics and innovation and how geopolitical shocks increasingly shape technology development and commercialization. She outlines the post-2016 shift toward framing priority technologies through the lens of national and economic security, and the growing geopolitical constraints facing entrepreneurs. Drawing on discussions at the Munich Security Conference, Fiona highlights Europe’s strong talent base alongside structural constraints, including smaller venture capital pools, fragmented markets, pension fund limitations, and bureaucratic procurement processes. We explore how defense and security startups think about U.S. versus European capital and transatlantic expansion, the growing importance of dual-use investment, and resilience as a business case. Fiona explains NATO’s two-pronged innovation strategy and emphasizes the need for a “resilience premium” to support domestic and allied production. We discuss China’s competitive innovation model, industrial policy lessons for the West, and the need to scale critical technologies to reduce supply chain dependence and rebuild manufacturing capacity across allied markets. Fiona also shares her perspective at MIT, where students are increasingly prioritizing defense, security, and resilience, alongside energy and climate reframed through critical minerals and system resilience, with AI integration across disciplines. We cover AI’s role in lowering experimentation costs through simulation, large-company AI execution pitfalls, drone and autonomy lessons from Ukraine, and how to avoid overspending on AI. We close by asking where she sees innovation over the next decade, which she describes as “innovation at the extremes,” including fusion energy, Arctic navigation and mining, space commercialization, and other frontier environments. It was a fascinating discussion and we greatly appreciate Fiona for sharing her valuable time and insights.
To start the show, Mike Bradley noted that this week is centered on Tuesday’s State of the Union address and the policy implications that follow. On the bond market front, the 10-year remains steady, with traders’ attention turning to Friday’s PPI report. On the crude oil market front, WTI is trading at ~$66/bbl as markets weigh the potential for a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal versus whether the U.S. follows through on its threat of limited military strikes. WTI price could fall to low-$60/bbl if a nuclear deal is reached or rise to $70/bbl on escalation. The DJIA and S&P 500 are both up marginally since the Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s global tariffs last Friday. Technology stocks have staged a modest rebound after several weeks of underperformance. Energy has outperformed over the past week but has underperformed since last Friday’s tariff announcement. E&Ps will dominate
We are pleased to share the final episode of our NAPE COBT series featuring Ruaraidh Montgomery, Head of Energy Trends & Analytics at Welligence Energy Analytics, to discuss the latest developments in global exploration trends. Prior to joining Welligence, Ruaraidh spent 13 years at Wood Mackenzie covering Latin America’s upstream and corporate sectors as well as the U.S. Gulf. At Welligence, he oversees all global upstream research. Welligence is a market intelligence firm exclusively focused on upstream oil and gas. Its platform provides tools and intelligence to assess opportunities, benchmark against peers, visualize upstream data, and access detailed asset valuations, among other capabilities. We were pleased to hear Ruaraidh’s insights.
In our conversation, Ruaraidh walks us through how the Welligence platform combines high-quality data acquisition with on-the-ground human intelligence to model global upstream activity and identify emerging opportunities. He outlines Welligence’s outlook for international exploration, noting that while 2026 activity is likely to remain relatively flat, a more meaningful pickup is expected in 2027–2029 as recently assembled exploration portfolios mature into drill-ready prospects. We discuss why exploration is structurally needed to support supply into the 2030s, and how majors and large independents are rebuilding exploration through bid rounds, farm-ins, and direct partnerships with national oil companies (NOCs). He describes a growing “land grab” for acreage across key regions including the Atlantic Margin, Brazil’s equatorial margin, the East Mediterranean, the Black Sea/Turkey, Greece, Libya, and parts of North Africa. We highlight Alaska’s Nanushuk play as a powerful example of how reprocessed seismic can unlock new stratigraphic potential in mature basins. We touch on host governments making fiscal terms more competitive to attract capital and the growing importance of above-ground dynamics, using Venezuela as an example of a potential monetization pathway for existing offshore gas via Trinidad’s infrastructure and Atlantic LNG. We cover how operators think about securing development capacity as activity rises, the opportunity to reprocess and upgrade seismic using AI to shorten the cycle from data to leads and prospects, the emerging interest in international shale, and the logic of pursuing first-mover advantage. We also discuss producing-country NOCs expanding internationally (notably QatarEnergy and ADNOC/XRG), Petrobras re-entering international exploration, Russia and Iran as geopolitical variables, Murphy’s Vietnam success as a mid-cap case study, how Welligence is using AI across modeling and intelligence workflows, and more. Ruaraidh’s slides from the discussion are linked here. Thanks to Ruaraidh for joining!
Mike Bradley started off the discussion by noting that the 10-year U.S. bond yield has done essentially nothing this week (stuck between 4.0% to 4.10%), largely due to a lack of market-moving economic data. In crude markets, WTI finally broke out of its $60–$65/bbl price range for the first time since August 2024. Growing doubts around the prospects for an Iranian nuclear agreement have pushed oil prices higher this week, though any agreement reached in the coming weeks could just as easily push WTI price back to the lower end of its recent trading band. He also pointed to the strength (backwardation) in global oil prices, despite the IEA’s persistent narrative that global oil markets in 2026 will be oversupplied by ~3.7mmbpd, which Mike deemed completely ridiculous. In broader equities, the DJIA and S&P 500 were both down marginally. The Energy sector has benefitted this week from the move higher in oil prices and remains the best-performing S&P sector this year (up ~23%)
We are excited to continue our NAPE COBT series with Scott Richardson, Global Head of Energy Investment Banking at RBC, and Craig Lande, Managing Director and Co-Head of RBC’s Energy A&D practice, to explore what’s driving today’s asset markets. Scott is the former Co-Founder of Richardson Barr and has more than 40 years of energy investment banking experience across the sale of both public and private companies, private and public debt transactions, fairness opinions, general advisory and asset divestitures. Craig joined RBC Richardson Barr in 2005 and previously served as Vice President at Waterous & Co. He has over 25 years of broad experience in the U.S. A&D market, including the sale of assets and companies, fairness opinions, and general advisory. Mark Castiglione and Maynard were thrilled to host Scott and Craig.
In our conversation, we explore the current asset market, with gas deals a much more significant share of the market amid a mix of new and returning buyers, including international capital (particularly Asia) pursuing Gulf Coast gas with LNG linkage. We discuss seller-friendly valuations driven by a scarcity premium and “four buckets” of demand (ABS-backed buyers, international buyers, strategics/publics, and private equity) competing for limited opportunities and fueling increasingly aggressive bid dynamics, including tighter bid rounds and more pre-emptive offers. We unpack ABS mechanics and their impact on PDP valuations, including the role of lower-cost capital and longer-dated hedging. We cover the disconnect between private-market asset valuations and public-market multiples, corporate M&A as a catalyst for future A&D supply, trading firms seeking physical commodity exposure, the return of commercial bank lending, and go-private considerations constrained by leverage. We examine how buyers are embedding inventory upside into valuations by assigning value to secondary and deeper zones, where pockets of new basin excitement remain (including the Rockies, Canada, and select international opportunities), how shifting regulatory dynamics have stimulated interest in New Mexico, and the evolving role of ABS financing and continuation vehicles. We also touch on whether AI is meaningfully changing transaction workflows, longer-term consolidation trends, the potential return of exploration capital domestically and abroad, and much more. It was a substantive and thought-provoking discussion.
Many thanks to Scott and Craig for their time and thoughtful insights during a very busy week. Stay tuned for our final NAPE episode focused on exploration. Our best to you all!
In recognition of NAPE week in Houston, we are delighted to welcome back David Bat, President of Kimberlite Research, to explore the latest OFS activity, trends, and technologies. David brings more than 30 years of experience spanning upstream, power, and oilfield research. Prior to joining Kimberlite in 2015, he served as VP and General Manager of Constellation New Energy, President of Welling & Company, and President of Stream-Flo USA. He began his career as a geologist with Chevron. Kimberlite is an international oilfield research firm that draws on insights from more than 20,000 hours of annual interviews with industry professionals to analyze market trends and benchmark performance for oilfield equipment and service providers. We were excited to hear David’s perspective and latest insights.
In our conversation, we cover Kimberlite’s research model, the data it captures from operators, and how the firm uses AI as an enabling tool. David shares Kimberlite’s 2026 operator sentiment and activity outlook and highlights regional hot spots for expansion (including Latin America, the Middle East, Norway, and West Africa) and discusses key technologies improving recovery and efficiency, as well as the runway for further gains. We compare international versus North American market structure, noting that the “Big Four” hold roughly 80% share across much of the international/offshore oilfield services market, while North America is highly fragmented with many specialty providers. We touch on the Permian as a global incubator for innovation, the Haynesville as a proving ground for high-temperature tools, David’s longer-term outlook for the Lower 48 Tier 1 runway, operator-to-operator differences in service outcomes, and supplier performance dispersion and benchmarking, with performance and fit varying by basin. We explore upstream digital transformation strategies, why domain expertise matters for applying AI, hydraulic fracturing digital dynamics, and where digital value is expected to emerge, especially in production optimization. We also cover why consolidation is viewed as desperately needed in oilfield services yet hard to execute, Canada’s market dynamics, and the strong demand for qualified personnel and quality equipment in international and offshore markets. David shares his exploration outlook, potential drivers of improved recoveries, newer tech players, and Kimberlite’s Net Promoter Score (NPS) work, which he says correlates strongly with future financial performance and competitive strength; fewer than 10% of the OFS companies Kimberlite tracks exhibit truly distinguishing, scalable, "elite" customer-focused characteristics. A few select slides from David’s presentation are linked here. It was a wide-ranging discussion and we’re grateful to David for sharing his expertise with us all.
Mike Bradley kicked off the discussion by noting that the 10-year U.S. bond yield appears to have stabilized in the 4.0% to 4.10% range after plunging last week on a cooler-than-expected January CPI report. In crude markets, WTI price has been stuck over the last several weeks between $60-$65/bbl and inched a little lower to start this week (~$62/bbl) following reports that Iran and the U.S. have a “general agreement” on the basis for a potential nuclear deal, which could eventually lead to an ease in Iranian sanctions. An agreement in the next couple of weeks could lead to an additional pullback in oil prices if the oil market narrative shifts away from a modest “war premium” towards the IEA’s 2026 global “oil glut” (~3.7mmbpd) narrative. On the natural gas front, he highlighted that the recent Arctic-driven winter premium for prompt gas price (~$3.00/MMBtu) and 12-month strip (~$3.50/MMBtu) have been completely u
Today we had the exciting opportunity to host Bill Anderson, Senior Managing Director at Evercore and Global Head of the firm’s Activism/Raid Defense team and Strategic M&A Advisory practice. Bill is a pioneer in activism defense and has advised more than 500 companies facing activists or strategic raids, including many of the largest proxy fights and defense situations of the past two decades. Prior to joining Evercore in 2016, Bill spent more than 15 years at Goldman Sachs as an M&A partner and leader of its defense team. Earlier in his career, he was an M&A attorney at Simpson Thatcher & Bartlett, clerked on the Second Circuit of the U.S. Court of Appeals, worked as a CPA at Coopers & Lybrand, and served as a Captain in the U.S. Army Reserves. It was our pleasure to hear Bill’s perspectives on the latest M&A activity, activism and hostile preparedness, board composition and alignment, and the evolving dynamics between companies, shareholders, and capital markets.
In our conversation, we explore Bill’s career path from classic M&A work into defense and special committees as markets changed, and how activism became a major driver of M&A. Bill shares his top takeaways from 2025 activity, noting the wide range of deal types and attributing the acceleration in deal flow to greater antitrust optimism, liquid financing, and strong buyer stock performance. We discuss why activism has become a core risk-management issue for public companies, how activists can build positions via derivatives and broker-dealer exposure with limited disclosure (and why 13F filings can be an important early-warning signal), and how shareholder bases have evolved with index funds now a dominant ownership block alongside the continued influence of ISS and Glass Lewis. We cover the difficulty of mobilizing retail votes and related regulatory/state-law considerations, the deal approval environment under Trump versus Biden (including CFIUS as a wildcard), why companies are more careful describing synergies, the impact of universal proxy, and the importance of diversity, tenure, and sector expertise in board refreshment. We touch on the drivers of positive acquirer stock reactions, how companies communicate value at deal announcement, activist dynamics in M&A and when activism becomes contentious, the importance of board alignment and cohesion, increased spin-off activity, and much more. We ended by asking Bill for his thoughts on how companies can attract long-only capital. Throughout the discussion, we reference several elements of Evercore’s “2025 Year in Review Report.” It was a fascinating discussion and we appreciate Bill for sharing his time and insights.
Mike Bradley kicked us off by noting that the 10-year U.S. bond yield plunged this week following an unexpectedly soft December Retail Sales report. Bond volatility could remain elevated with January CPI set for release on Friday. On the crude oil market front, WTI price appears to have temporarily settled into a $60-$65/bbl trading range, given there have been no major new geopolitical surprises over the past week. In natural gas, prompt natural gas price has completely roundtripped since the Arctic blast started and is now trading back at ~$3.15/MMBtu. U.S. gas storage is back near normal levels (around the 5-year average) and winter weather from here through the end of withdrawal season will determine how constructive the setup is for summer gas price. On the broader equity market front, the DJIA has been one of the real winners this past week (up ~2.5-3.0%), especially versus the S&P 500 (up ~0.5%). Cyclical sectors (Energy, Industrials, and Materials) continue to be the market leaders, while Tech/Telecom continue to lag. In energy equities, most large-caps (Oil Majors, Oil Services, and Refiners) have already reported Q4 results, and the next few weeks will be dominated by E&Ps reporting. E&P commentary will likely be do
We were honored this week to welcome Ali Moshiri, CEO and President of Amos Global Energy, for a Special Edition COBT focused on Venezuela. Ali is the former President of Chevron Africa-Latin America and spent nearly 40 years at Chevron. He joined the company in 1978 as a petroleum engineer and went on to hold a wide range of senior technical, strategic, and leadership roles, ultimately overseeing Chevron’s upstream operations across Africa and Latin America, including key positions in Venezuela and the broader region. Since retiring from Chevron in 2017, Ali has served as an advisor to Chevron and is currently President and CEO of Amos Global Energy, a Houston-based upstream independent focused on building a diversified portfolio across Latin America (with selective investments in the U.S. and Africa) through an integrated direct investment model. With deep operational, geopolitical, and strategic experience across global energy markets, Ali brings a unique and long-term perspective to today’s discussion.
In our conversation, Ali describes the on-the-ground conditions based on frequent travel to Venezuela and argues there is widespread misunderstanding of the country driven by years of narrative focus on migration, crime, and deportation rather than fundamentals. He details Venezuela’s fundamentals including resource size and accessibility, proximity to the U.S., and the historical role of Gulf Coast heavy-oil refinery conversions and the light/heavy differential in making Venezuela barrels attractive. We discuss where development is likely to concentrate, the production ramp and capital needs, why in his mind the clearest lever for Venezuelan recovery is increasing oil output, workforce and execution constraints, the role of service companies, and who is most likely to invest first. Ali notes the key to mobilizing capital is a credible public-private partnership structure that can be written into a term sheet, alongside securing a lead private investor. He explains China’s presence as largely commercial and loan driven, and Russia’s as more geopolitical, and he doesn’t expect either to materially expand or compete for incremental assets. We explore why prioritizing stability through a managed transition (including Venezuela’s Vice President, and now Acting President, Delcy Rodríguez’s role) is essential to convert investor interest into commitment, and he frames the recent vote more as a referendum than a fully competitive election, with a later phase needed for a truly democratic process. We touch on OPEC’s incentives to keep Venezuela “inside the tent,” where near-term investment should concentrate, why midstream is less attractive today, the longer-term upside in gas and LNG, and much more. We ended by asking Ali for his ten-year outlook on global oil demand and the sources of future supply. As mentioned, details about Venezuela’s reform of the Organic Law on Hydrocarbons are linked here. We greatly appreciate Ali for sharing his candid insights into a complex situation.
The Veriten team shared a few quick comments to kick off the show. Mike Bradley flagged two themes: commodities volatility has dominated the year so far, with oil and gas prices swinging sharply due to geopolitical issues, while metals and Bitcoin have hit highs and then pulled back. He also noted that during recent Q4 earnings calls, oil majors and early-reporting service companies have faced many questions about Venezuela, but few have clear answers, making the discussion with Ali very timely. Arjun Murti added that global oil demand continues to grow, and while U.S. shale should hold a long-term plateau, it’s unlikely to repeat its outsized contribution to global supply growth, raising the question of what comes after shale. He pointed to Venezuela’s long-term potential, recalling the suc
Today we were delighted to welcome Jim Murchie, Co-Founder, Co-Portfolio Manager, and CEO of Energy Income Partners (EIP). Prior to co-founding EIP, Jim’s career in power and electricity included establishing Lawhill Capital, serving as a Managing Director at Tiger Management focused primarily on energy, commodities, and related equities, and working as a Principal at Sanford C. Bernstein, where he was a top-ranked energy analyst. He began his career at British Petroleum and holds an MA in Energy Planning from Harvard University. We were thrilled to connect with Jim for an insightful discussion on the power landscape.
We covered a lot of ground in our conversation, starting with how EIP navigates macro and market volatility by focusing on regulated monopolies and pipelines with stable, cost-plus earnings, Jim’s career path and research philosophy, and how EIP’s focus on utilities and pipelines emerged from investor demand for real assets and dividends. Jim provides a history lesson on power markets and how deregulated wholesale markets evolved, Enron-era manipulation, and the early-2000s gas plant buildout that ultimately led to overcapacity and merchant distress. We dig into the three-bucket framework for customer bills (generation, transmission, and distribution/other) and why the public debate often overemphasizes generation, while the biggest driver of residential bill increases has been distribution/other costs (bucket three). Jim explains that the third bucket on power bills often acts as a catch-all for costs that are neither generation nor transmission, even when they aren’t distribution in the literal last-mile sense, and that greater billing and policy transparency can clarify what’s exogenous versus what’s controllable. He describes how the impact of data centers can differ between vertically integrated cost-plus states and deregulated commodity-market states, and unpacks behind-the-meter realities, including how hyperscalers often prefer a grid connection for reliability but still deploy backup generation. We discuss the administration’s push for hyperscalers to sign long-term contracts to enable new generation build, policymakers’ heightened focus on avoiding blackouts, and why this is often a peaking problem more than a supply problem. Jim emphasizes how incentives, rather than intent, drive investment behavior in regulated versus deregulated markets, challenges the narrative that data centers are inherently driving higher power prices, and highlights the economic value of reliability investments and peak-load management in shaping long-term system costs. It was a wide-ranging discussion, and we look forward to continuing the dialogue with Jim in a future episode.
As you will hear, we reference a few items in the discussion. Please find the links below:
Energy Income Partners Report: “Power Struggle I – How False Political Narratives Cloud the Drivers of Higher Residential Electricity Prices” (linked here)
Energy Income Partners Report: “Power Struggle II – How Market Structure Affects Wholesale Power Price Increases” (linked here)
Veriten’s COBT episode featuring Thomas Popik, Foundation for Resilient Societies (linked here)
Mike Bradley opened the discussion by noting that the 10-year U.S. bond yield looks to be the least volatile asset class at this juncture, with the 10-year bond yield trading very rangebound (around 4.25%). The dominant market theme this week, and for much of the year, has been extreme volatility across commodities (Bitcoin, Energy, and Metals). On the crude oil market front, WTI price is trading at ~$63/bbl, with volatility elevated over t
Today we had the pleasure of hosting Dr. Mike Laufer, Co-Founder and CEO of Kairos Power, for a robust nuclear-focused discussion. Kairos recently marked its nine-year anniversary and has grown to 500+ employees across its headquarters in Alameda, CA, its manufacturing development campus in Albuquerque, NM, and its Hermes Demonstration Reactor Campus in Oak Ridge, TN. Kairos is developing its fluoride salt-cooled high-temperature reactor (KP-FHR), which pairs TRISO pebble fuel with a low-pressure molten-salt coolant (“Flibe”) and is designed for modular deployment, including a two-reactor/one-turbine configuration delivering up to ~150 MWe. The company’s Oak Ridge program includes Hermes 1, the first non-water-cooled reactor to receive an NRC construction permit, and Hermes 2, a commercial-scale demonstration plant intended to supply electricity to the grid. Mike earned his Ph.D. in Nuclear Engineering from the University of California, Berkeley, and his undergraduate degree in Mechanical Engineering from Stanford University. His research included work in reactor safety, design, licensing, and code validation for advanced non-light water reactors. We were thrilled to visit with Mike.
In our conversation, Mike shares the early vision behind Kairos, the company’s focus on U.S. electricity markets and building a reactor that can compete on cost, and their strategy centered on iterative hardware demonstrations and vertical integration. We discuss system-level parallelization, developing upstream/downstream “balance-of-plant” elements alongside reactor work to compress timelines and de-risk full-system integration, NRC engagement dating back to 2018, safety case fundamentals, sizing and product configuration, and how the Google partnership supports a sequence of deployments toward ~500 MW by 2035 (Google announcement linked here). Mike offers a realistic view of the nuclear learning curve and what it takes to drive down cost and schedule uncertainty over successive projects, how Kairos structured the Google deployment pathway, and the importance of setting achievable targets. We touch on how SMR winners and losers will be determined by project execution and delivery, not announcements, and Mike highlights common pitfalls in the conventional U.S. nuclear project model, including fragmented roles and misaligned incentives. We discuss Kairos’s centralized “hub” model with clear decision-making authority, its approach to validating partners and execution steps at smaller scale before taking on multi-billion-dollar FOAK risk, and how the organization maintains efficiency by balancing multiple deliverables and hiring “wildly competent” people comfortable with ambiguity. We also cover how commodity inflation and supply-chain depth affect planning, Kairos’s focus on strategic supplier partnerships, particularly in steel, concrete, and precast concrete, the importance of public trust and earning long-term community support, how non-nuclear test systems build real operating capability and flexible operating models, how AI may eventually improve execution and reliability, and much more. We’re very grateful to Mike for sharing his time and expertise with us.
Mike Bradley kicked off the show by noting that the 10-year U.S. bond yield appears to have temporarily stabilized around 4.2% and is awaiting Wednesday’s FOMC rate decision. Most expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged, though volatility could ensue if they don’t! On the crude oil front, WTI price has inched up to $62/bbl amid continued bearishness in financial contract length and recent severe winter weather. There’s speculation that this Polar Vortex (which we’ve dubbed the “Polar Pig”) has reduced U.S. oil production by ~1.5mmbpd. On the natural gas front, the Polar Pig has spiked prompt U.S. natural gas price to ~$6/MM
While at CIBC’s Annual Institutional Investor Conference in Whistler, we had the exciting opportunity to host Grant Isaac of Cameco for this Special Edition COBT. Grant serves as President and Chief Operating Officer of Cameco and has held several roles over his 16-plus years with the company, including EVP & CFO and SVP of Corporate Services. In his current role, he is responsible for all Cameco operations, exploration, and corporate development, as well as the company’s commercial and financial strategy. Grant earned a Ph.D. from the London School of Economics and previously served as a business professor at the University of Saskatchewan. We were delighted to sit down with Grant to explore the latest developments in nuclear energy.
In our discussion, Grant outlines Cameco’s integrated nuclear platform and strategy, with vertical integration as a way to help “build their own demand,” as each reactor build creates 80-100 years of downstream recurring fuel and services demand. We explore how nuclear has shifted from “maybe/what if” to “must do it now,” what drives ordering momentum, and the industry’s push to turn nuclear from a project into a product through standardization, sequencing, and simplification. Grant discusses how investors are increasingly underwriting Cameco as a “nuclear super-major” with scarce, strategic assets, and how the Westinghouse acquisition and partnership with Brookfield broadened the shareholder base and improved visibility into future demand. We touch on supply-chain pinch points across mining, conversion, enrichment, and fabrication, the post-Russia fuel-cycle reset, and why uranium is uniquely constrained by geology and can’t be “fixed” with industrial policy. Grant explains the Global Laser Enrichment (GLE) project, the role of public-private partnerships in capital-intensive nuclear projects, and Ontario as a positive case study for government involvement. Grant also shares why traditional NPV frameworks tend to undervalue nuclear assets, noting that governments and sponsors instead focus on payback math over 80–100-year asset lives, the significant economic multipliers from large-scale nuclear builds, and the “cluster effects” that attract long-term industry, jobs, and investment, making the case for nuclear as a generational, nation-building infrastructure investment. We also cover evolving investor frameworks and valuation metrics, expectations for consolidation in the nuclear sector, his outlook for 2026, the future of uranium supply, and more. It was an insightful conversation.
In other nuclear news, the World Nuclear Association published a World Nuclear Outlook Report on Tuesday, January 20 (linked here), which provides the most comprehensive assessment to date of global nuclear energy development, assessing national targets for nuclear capacity against the global goal to triple nuclear capacity by 2050.
We hope you enjoy the discussion with Grant as much as we did. Our best to you all!
It was an honor to welcome David MacNaughton, Strategic Advisor at CIBC and former Canadian Ambassador to the United States. David joined CIBC earlier in January (press release linked here) and will provide insights to senior business leaders across public policy, regulatory developments, global trade, and stakeholder relations. David served as Canada’s Ambassador to the U.S. from 2016 to 2019, a pivotal period that included the renegotiation of NAFTA. Earlier in his career, David served as Chairman of StrategyCorp and as a Senior Advisor to CIBC Capital Markets, and he previously served as President of Palantir Canada. He is a seasoned entrepreneur and political strategist, having founded and built multiple public affairs and advisory firms. We were thrilled to host David ahead of CIBC’s Annual Institutional Investor Conference taking place this week in Whistler and to hear his perspective on the evolving dynamics shaping the U.S.-Canada relationship.
In our conversation, we discuss David’s experience spanning business and government, the highly dynamic geopolitical environment, the need for renewed public-private collaboration, and why politics feel increasingly interventionist today, with populist pressure pushing governments toward protectionism and isolationism. We explore the implications of AI-driven white-collar job disruption, why businesses must treat geopolitics and public policy as core risk drivers, Canada’s role in AI innovation and adoption, and how Canada is rebalancing its resource economy amid global energy and trade shifts. David shares his perspective on Canada’s prior reluctance to embrace LNG exports and its renewed push to be an “energy superpower,” how to interpret volatility from the Trump Administration, and how tariffs have strained, but not broken, the U.S.-Canada relationship, highlighting the importance of the integrated North American energy system and the need for Canada to diversify markets. We discuss how David’s Strategic Advisor role will help clients think about using government support appropriately, his cautious optimism on recent geopolitical shifts, and why maintaining dialogue among allies matters, as misinterpretation and retreating into corners can quickly spiral into escalation. It was a broad-based discussion and we’re thankful to David for sharing his time and unique insights.
Mike Bradley opened the show by noting that the 10-year U.S. bond yield had spiked to ~4.3% amid concerns that Europeans could sell U.S. Treasuries in response to President Trump’s Greenland overtures, as well as growing questions about what a spike in Japanese bond yields might mean for global bond yields. Consensus appears firmly in the camp that the Fed will not cut interest rates at the January 28 FOMC meeting. In the broader equity market, the S&P 500 was down modestly (~0.5%) over the last week, with cyclical sectors (Energy and Industrials) leading and Financials lagging. In energy commodities, WTI price appears to have stabilized at ~$60/bbl. U.S. natural gas price recently spiked ~$0.80/MMBtu (to ~$4.00/MMBtu) due to an Arctic blast forecast in the weeks ahead. On the energy news front, Q4 earnings season begins this week with Halliburton and SLB reporting. Discussion on those calls is likely to be dominated by 1H26 international oil spending trends. Mike also noted Mitsubishi Corp’s $5.2 billion deal to acquire Aethon Energy, and his expectation for many more deals across the energy value chain in 2026. He ended by highlighting that President Trump, along with a handful of Northeast governors, are asking PJM Interconnection to hold an emergency energy auction that would allow Big Tech companies to bid on 15-year contracts to supply ~$15 billion of new power plants. IPP equities were the most negatively impacted by this proposal late last week.
Over the years, we have really enjoyed hosting the Goldman Sachs Research Team, and today we are thrilled to share this Special Edition featuring Neil Mehta (Managing Director and Head of North American Natural Resources Equity Research), Carly Davenport (Vice President, Equity Research), and Brian Singer (Managing Director and Global Head, GS SUSTAIN for Global Investment Research). Neil joined Goldman in 2008 and oversees research coverage across oil and gas, utilities, midstream, metals and mining, and clean technology, while also leading coverage for large-cap energy equities. Carly joined Goldman in 2016 and covers U.S. utilities. She previously covered SMID-cap refiners and was a member of the integrated oils & refiners team. Brian joined the firm as an analyst in 1998 and has covered energy companies based in Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Russia, South Africa, and the U.S.
As many of you likely know, Goldman recently hosted its annual Energy, CleanTech & Utilities Conference. Jeff Tillery, Arjun Murti, and Maynard were thrilled to welcome the team back to discuss key takeaways and the broader energy landscape. As you will hear, it was a wide-ranging and substantive discussion, thanks to Neil, Carly, and Brian, whose coverage and breadth of knowledge made for a fascinating conversation.
In our discussion, Neil walks us through how Goldman’s Energy, CleanTech & Utilities Conference has broadened its coverage over time and how the Maduro/Venezuela developments shaped conversations, especially the market’s tendency to trade geopolitical headlines to extremes before recalibrating. Brian explains how sustainability in 2026 is increasingly about risk mitigation and reliability (power, water, supply chains), and why the power buildout is a “yes-and” environment rather than an either/or fuel debate. Carly discusses how the market is shifting from “own-the-theme” to a more stock-picker setup as 2025 plans translate into concrete PPA announcements and load-growth rationalization, with an all-of-the-above sourcing outlook across coal, gas, renewables, and longer-dated nuclear. We cover oil and gas risk-taking, M&A, and why consolidation may be necessary, but not sufficient, especially for U.S.-focused shale players. We explore lessons from shale on cost position and diversification, investor “permission” for expansion via Brian’s CARE checklist, how to “get outside your lane” without losing credibility, and the guardrails utilities face in avoiding volatility and merchant exposure. Brian outlines investor behavior in a demand-driven upcycle, scale as a differentiator in power, and his energy policy STARS lens: Supply Transition, Affordability, Reliability, and Security, along with supply-chain depth and labor as a binding constraint. Carly also shares underappreciated themes including grid maintenance and resilience investment needs and potential ROE and affordability pressure. Neil highlights economic re-acceleration as a potentially underappreciated upside driver for energy equities and contrasts strategic priorities for refiners versus midstream. We close by asking what’s next for the team as they look ahead to next year’s conference. We greatly appreciate Neil, Carly, and Brian for sharing their time and perspectives.
We hope you find today’s discussion as insightful and interesting as we did. Our best to you all and Happy MLK Day!
Today we were thrilled to welcome Governor Kevin Stitt of Oklahoma. Governor Stitt was first elected in 2018 and re-elected in 2022. Before entering politics, he was a successful entrepreneur. His company, Gateway, grew into a nationwide mortgage company and, through a merger, became Gateway First Bank, now one of Oklahoma’s ten largest banks. In 2018, he received more votes than any gubernatorial candidate in Oklahoma history in his first bid for elected office. As Governor, he has prioritized delivering more value for taxpayers, and his fiscally conservative approach has helped Oklahoma build its largest savings balance in state history. Governor Stitt also serves as Chair of the National Governors Association, which was founded in 1908 to advance bipartisan dialogue, policy innovation, and information-sharing among the nation’s governors. It was an honor to host the Governor for an insightful conversation on permitting reform, power affordability, and the policy bottlenecks shaping the U.S. energy and infrastructure buildout.
In our conversation, we explore why states, through the bipartisan work of the National Governors Association, are central to unlocking U.S. competitiveness and fixing bottlenecks that Washington has struggled to address. Governor Stitt lays out a practical, pro-business, free-market philosophy to build more of everything, remove obstacles, and let innovation and capital do the work, shaped by his background as a business leader turned governor. We discuss Oklahoma’s behind-the-meter power policy that allows large users to self-supply, the broader affordability and power price debate, and the need to better educate the public on where electricity comes from. We dig into what’s broken in today’s policy framework, including the lack of a single accountable federal regulator, and how short-term politics and pendulum swings can stall long-term, common-sense reforms. We also touch on the added complexity of tribal sovereignty and federal involvement in energy infrastructure development. As mentioned, the National Governors Association’s permitting proposal, “NGA Letter on Energy Permitting Priorities” (published in October 2025) is linked here. We greatly enjoyed the discussion and appreciate Governor Stitt for his time.
Mike Bradley noted the 10-year bond yield (~4.18%) has traded sideways to start the year. December CPI printed in line with expectations, with PPI due tomorrow. If economic reports continue to print in line, bond yields will likely remain rangebound until the January 28 FOMC meeting. On the oil market front, WTI is up ~$3.50/bbl (~$61/bbl) this year despite 2026 surplus concerns. Oil markets have quickly shifted from 1H26 oversupply and Venezuelan oil production increases to rising Iran-related risk, with the potential for a sharper spike if tensions escalate, especially given that institutional investors are currently bearish (Goldman Sachs Oil Sentiment survey) and very short oil contract “financial” length. In equities, the S&P 500 is up ~2% YTD with the biggest sector winners being cyclicals (Energy, Industrials, and Materials). Materials is the best performing S&P sector this year (up ~7%) due to growing optimism that global GDP growth will be headed higher in 2026. The Russell 2000 is up ~6%, which is far outpacing the S&P 500 & Big AI/Tech stocks, and could be an early sign that market breadth is widening. Energy is up ~5% this year with Oil Services up ~12%, Refiners up ~8% and U.S. Oil Majors up ~6% on hopes that they’ll all be beneficiaries of future Venezuelan infrastructure investment and a quick redirection of heavy oil barrels to Gulf Coast refiners. He closed with takeaways from the Goldman Sachs Energy, Clean Tech & Utilities Conference last week including a real sense of optimism despite investors still being most
Today we had the pleasure of welcoming back Rob West, Founder and Lead Analyst at Thunder Said Energy, continuing our tradition of kicking off the year with his perspectives. Rob has joined us on COBT six times in our history and has earned the honor of holding the lead-off spot in 2022, 2024, 2025, and now 2026. He is a long-time energy analyst and provides unique, thought-provoking, and economic-driven insights into energy research and technologies. Rob launched Thunder Said in 2019 and previously served at Sanford C. Bernstein and Partners Capital. Based in Estonia, he brings a valuable global lens to the energy landscape. One of Veriten’s highlights from 2025 was having Rob join the firm as a Senior Advisor. We were delighted to visit with Rob to reflect on 2025 and explore what the future might hold for energy in 2026.
In our conversation, Rob reflects on the shift in the dominant energy-market narrative from net zero and the energy transition (2021 – 2023), to geopolitical security post Russia-Ukraine, and now overwhelmingly toward AI and power demand. We discuss the outlook for sharply higher global defense spending by 2030 and its potential benefits to infrastructure, industry, AI, smart grids, and competitiveness. Rob outlines a broader recalibration of energy “truths” entering 2026 including solar growth potentially flattening, EV growth slowing or declining, the LNG glut narrative being questioned, and oil demand continuing to grow at roughly ~+1 MMbbl/d per year. Rob shares his outlook on global LNG, highlighting a wave of new supply that is frequently delayed, Russian LNG logistics constraints, Australia’s domestic market interventions, and how policy changes in the U.S. and China are contributing to slower EV sales. We explore whether rising marginal coal mining costs in China could translate into higher Chinese power prices, China’s energy strategy and diversification, and the copper outlook, including potential demand headwinds if solar and EV growth slows in 2026, alongside the importance of “primary analysis.” Rob highlights why flexible grids and better utilization are the biggest levers to reducing power system costs and explains his rationale for a more cautious U.S. shale outlook, remarking that oil markets are now influenced less by OPEC policy and more by U.S. foreign policy pressure. We closed by asking Rob for his biggest wildcard for 2026, which he identified as a collapse/fracturing of Russia as a state, with major implications for resource markets and control of assets. It was an insightful discussion and we can’t thank Rob enough for sharing his time and thoughts with us.
Mike Bradley and Arjun Murti both joined from the Goldman Sachs Energy, CleanTech & Utilities Conference in Miami. Mike opened by emphasizing that two of the major market themes in 2025 were AI/data center and electricity demand growth. He noted that most investors still believe these two themes will continue to resonate in 2026, and will probably need to, especially at current valuations. On the energy commodity front, WTI oil price is up ~2% so far this year, while U.S. natural gas price is down ~8% on a warmer weather outlook. Across broader equities, the S&P 500 is up ~1% this year while the DJIA is up ~2%. The best performing sectors so far this year have been energy, financial, industrial, and materials, while the underperformers have been technology and telecom. On the energy equity front, he noted that last weekend’s events in Venezuela have lifted (materially in some cases) shares of U.S. oil majors, large-cap international oil services and Gulf Coast refiners, while E&Ps have been the underperformers. The wide divergence in energy equity performance this week is mostly due to optimism of an infrastructure/oil services/oil production revival in Venezuela which may be premature. He added that hedge funds could be a culprit for these outsized moves mostly because they weren’t positi
We are thrilled to share this Special Edition COBT as our final episode of 2025. Like many of you, we have been closely watching the escalating situation in Venezuela, and we had the honor of hosting former Attorney General Bill Barr to hear his unique perspectives. Bill served twice as Attorney General, first under President George H. W. Bush from 1991 to 1993 and again under President Donald Trump from 2019 to 2020. He is the author of “One Damn Thing After Another” and has held senior roles at Kirkland & Ellis and Verizon. He earned his law degree from George Washington University and studied Government and Chinese Studies at Columbia. Bill is currently a Partner at Torridon Group. It was our pleasure to visit with Bill and hear his insights on the latest developments in Venezuela.
In our conversation, we explore the current Venezuela crisis and U.S. military buildup, why Bill welcomes the Trump Administration’s response, and why he sees Venezuela as both a national security threat and humanitarian crisis. Bill outlines narco-terrorism versus traditional organized crime, how cartels use drugs as a weapon against the U.S., and why he views Venezuela as a strategic adversary with deep ties to Russia, China, Cuba, Iran, and Hezbollah. He explains why domestic-style law enforcement doesn’t work inside hostile foreign territory and walks through the long-standing U.S. doctrine of acting when foreign states are “unable or unwilling” to deal with threats to the U.S. in their territory. We discuss lessons from U.S. action in Panama, stopping short in Iraq after Gulf War I, what “if you break it, you own it” means for Venezuela, why Venezuela is the focus now, versus Mexico and others, the role of Russia and China in Venezuela, and how renewed enforcement pressure on sanctioned tankers and oil flows can further squeeze the regime. We cover the effectiveness and limits of sanctions and the emerging quasi-blockade, how the President should think about escalation from a legal and constitutional perspective, Maduro’s options and potential off-ramps, the case for swift, decisive action, how failed regimes drive refugee crises that put pressure on U.S. borders, the potential collateral benefits for Venezuela and the broader region if things go well, and much more. As always, we appreciate hearing Bill’s perspectives. It was a fascinating conversation.
Mike Bradley kicked us off by noting that Thursday’s November CPI report printed much lower than expected, which lifted bonds and equities. On the electricity market front, he highlighted that the PJM Capacity Auction for 2027-2028 resulted in a record price ($333 per megawatt day). The more concerning takeaway, however, was that PJM did not obtain enough capacity to meet future reliability requirements. In energy news, Mike noted that Meg O’Neill, current CEO of Woodside Energy, has accepted the CEO role at BP PLC. On the oil market front, he observed that WTI price appears to have temporarily stabilized in the $56-$57/bbl range. Oil markets continue to be overly concerned with a “perceived” oil supply price glut in 2026, and at the current WTI strip price (mid-$50s/bbl), 2026 E&P budgets will be negatively impacted when they report in the coming months. He wrapped by walking through Venezuela’s past/present oil production (under both the Chávez and Maduro administrations) and the severe economic damage that’s been inflicted under the Maduro presidency. Arjun Murti built on Mike’s comments and reflected on Venezuela’s oil industry in the 1990s, when international oil companies partnered with PDVSA to develop the country’s vast heavy-oil resources under favorable fiscal terms and strong technical collaboration. He contrasted that period with the deterioration that followed under Hugo Chávez and Nicolás Maduro, as contract terms were tightened and assets were eventually nationalized, contributing to the collapse of Venezuela’s oil sector and the country’s
Today we had the pleasure of welcoming back our good friend Les Csorba, Partner in Charge of the Houston office and a member of the CEO and Board of Directors Practice at Heidrick & Struggles. Les has over 30 years of experience in executive search, leadership consulting, and executive coaching, and he has long been a thoughtful, balanced voice within the energy community. Earlier this fall, he published “Aware: The Power of Seeing Yourself Clearly” (linked here). It’s a fascinating exploration of how confronting blind spots, deepening both internal and external self-awareness, and cultivating environments where candid feedback is encouraged can transform leaders and organizations. As always, we appreciate hearing Les’s perspective and were thrilled to visit with him.
In our conversation, we cover why 2026 will test leaders, with fast-changing macro and geopolitical dynamics putting pressure on executives to lead with clarity, agility, and foresight. We explore how to create cultures where people speak candidly, including giving trusted team members permission to call out blind spots, as well as the difference between chain of command and chain of communication, and the importance of leaders being visible, accessible, and in direct contact with all levels of the organization. Les shares what led him to write “Aware” and the research Heidrick conducted showing that across 75,000 assessments, only ~13% of people demonstrated true self-awareness, inspiring Les to conclude that meaningfully raising that percentage could dramatically enhance organizational performance. We discuss internal versus external awareness, how leaders must treat macro/geopolitical chaos as primary inputs rather than background noise, how AI can boost efficiency but may dull self-awareness, and how to build feedback cultures and measure awareness. Les reflects on the early reception to the book and why self-awareness matters not just for leaders but for teams, boards, and personal relationships, why self-awareness is at historic lows, the importance of hiring and building around weaknesses, and how leaders can optimize and fully leverage their strengths. Les emphasizes the need to get outside of your information bubble, seek diverse perspectives, and cultivate the blend of confidence and humility that characterizes the most effective leaders. We close by discussing what’s next for Les, the four forces for energy leaders in 2026 (agility, internal activism, strategic awareness, and foresight vs. forecast), and the most common board weakness, lacking someone who can push back thoughtfully and respectfully.
Mike Bradley kicked us off by noting the 10-year bond yield was holding steady (~4.15%) following last week’s FOMC meeting. He flagged the dissenting votes for an interest rate cut and suggested the split could foreshadow dynamics under the next Fed Chairman. On the broader equity market front, he observed that markets appear to be losing trading momentum and that 2026 could be a “year of reckoning” for 2025’s market leaders (AI/Tech) as investors begin scrutinizing data center spending and associated returns more closely. In the oil market, he highlighted that WTI fell to a four-year low (~$55-bbl) on continued 2026 global oil surplus concerns rather than any specific event. He also noted that at the current 12-month strip ($55/bbl), 2026 upstream budgets, which will be announced in the next 1-2 months, will likely be negatively affected. On the natural gas front, he pointed out that over the past seven trading days, prompt U.S. natural gas price has plunged ~$1.50/MMBtu (to $3.85/MMBtu) due to a warmer short-term winter outlook. On the electricity front, he noted that 2027+ PJM capacity market auction results will be released Wednesday afternoon. Most investors are expecting prices to again hit the ceiling (~$335/mw), which might serve a
Today, we were delighted to welcome Neil Chatterjee, Former Commissioner and Chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). Neil served as FERC Chairman from August –December 2017 and again from October 2018–November 2020. During his tenure, he championed several strategic initiatives, including streamlining the liquified natural gas application review and approval process, and advancing the use of technology to mitigate physical and cyber threats to critical energy infrastructure. Prior to his service at FERC, Neil was an advisor to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and worked for the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association. He currently serves as Chief Government Affairs Officer at Palmetto, a Senior Advisor at KKR, a Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy, and a Senior Policy Advisor at the Climate Leadership Council, in addition to serving on the Bipartisan Policy Center’s Board of Directors. We were honored to host Neil at our offices in Houston for an insightful and engaging discussion.
In our conversation, we explore Neil’s perspective on the evolving U.S. energy landscape amid surging electricity demand, geopolitical pressure, and the rapid growth of artificial intelligence. Chatterjee explains the unique structure and independence of FERC, emphasizing that this design has helped the agency maintain policy stability even as presidential administrations swing between dramatically different energy priorities. He argues that energy security has become synonymous with national security and that FERC now sits at the center of balancing reliability, affordability, and decarbonization. The discussion highlights how new pressures from data centers, electrification, and reindustrialization are straining a grid shaped by decades of flat demand and policy drift. Chatterjee also reflects on past regulatory controversies, noting that AI-driven load growth may finally push the country beyond polarized debates about “fossil versus clean energy,” because meeting demand will require every available resource, from gas and coal to solar, storage, nuclear, and distributed generation technologies. Neil dives into the operational, political, and economic complexities of meeting this surge in power demand. Chatterjee outlines the emerging challenge of large-load interconnection is how to quickly connect massive hyperscaler data centers without destabilizing markets or burdening consumers, and praises a recent DOE directive that gives FERC flexibility (linked here), while insisting on quicker pathways to power. He details trade-offs such as hyperscalers funding grid upgrades in exchange for curtailment obligations, growing tension between utility and market-based models, and the need for aggressive permitting reform to build pipelines and transmission. He notes that time-to-power constraints favor near-term solutions such as solar-plus-storage paired with gas peakers, while advanced nuclear and new gas capacity remain years away. Throughout, he stresses the importance of depoliticizing energy policy and “empowering the nerds”— letting engineers, economists, and market designers, not political cycles, guide decisions on reliability, infrastructure, distributed resources, and the evolving relationship between front-of- and behind-the-meter systems. It was a tour de force and we greatly enjoyed the discussion.
Mike Bradley kicked off the show by noting that U.S. markets are laser-focused on Wednesday’s FOMC rate decision. On the bond market front, the 10-year Treasury yield has risen to approximately 4.17% (up from 4% two weeks ago) amid growing concern that the Fed may not deliver the multiple interest-rate cuts expected in 2026. He added that a 25-basis point rate cut is anticipated at the meeting and that Chairman Powell’s press conference, particularly his tone and comments on Fed independence,
Today we had the pleasure of hosting Dr. Kruti Lehenbauer, Founder of Analytics TX. Kruti is a longtime statistician and economic consultant who has held leadership roles across analytics, data, and research. She holds a Ph.D. in Public Policy and Political Economy and helps organizations audit business data, uncover hidden efficiencies, and navigate strategic planning, AI adoption, and more. She regularly shares thought-provoking insights and translates complex analysis into clear, actionable takeaways. We were delighted to hear her perspectives on interest rates, inflation, tariffs, and more ahead of next week’s Fed meeting.
In our conversation, we explore the “panic narrative” around the economy and why the past five years may feel worse than what the long-run trends suggest. We discuss the health of the U.S. economy, whether we’re truly in a unique moment, how rapid interest rate hikes have worsened the debt picture, and why Kruti believes rates should already be moving back toward ~3%. She shares why the expectation that “everything must rise exponentially” is misguided, invoking Joan Robinson’s reminder that “in the long run we are all dead, but not all at once.” We cover what data Kruti thinks the Fed should focus on (employment, GDP, true inflation) versus short-term headlines and political noise, the interplay between aggregate demand and aggregate supply, and why productivity and technology matter most for long-run growth. Kruti also explains how tariffs effectively raise real interest rates, how consumers adapt, and the flaws she sees in how we measure inflation today. We touch on why she believes fears of mass job loss from AI are overblown, the importance of adaptation, and her concerns about declining quality in higher education and its impact on high-skill labor and future productivity. We address fiscal versus monetary policy, why overreliance on the Fed is risky, and long-run structural issues including savings behavior, financial literacy, and long-dated household debt. We also discuss India’s role as a rising economic partner and end with the “magic-wand” reforms Kruti would prioritize including leaner government, updated inflation metrics, and policies that expand the economy’s productive frontier rather than over-managing it. It was a thought-provoking discussion.
Mike Bradley kicked us off by noting that broader equity markets rallied on a rebound in Bitcoin, bond yields have been inching higher, crude oil remains under pressure, U.S. natural gas price continues to surge, and copper prices are hitting all-time highs. The 10-year bond yield inched higher this week to ~4.1%, after trading near 4% last week, on rumors that Kevin Hassett is the front-runner for Federal Reserve Chairman. Bond volatility will likely continue into the December 10th FOMC meeting. The DJIA and S&P 500 were both up on the day but remain flattish to slightly lower for the week, with Technology leading and Energy lagging. On the oil market front, WTI price continues to be under pressure (trading just under $59/bbl) due to continuing concern around an early 2026 global oil surplus (~2-4mmbpd). This bearish oil thesis/trade is very-very-very consensus. OPEC+ convened over the weekend and agreed, as expected, to pause oil output hikes through Q126 and to call for third-party verification of OPEC+ members Maximum Sustainable Capacity for 2027 production baselines. He closed by highlighting that cold weather has finally arrived, spiking prompt U.S. natural gas price to ~$5/MMBtu (while the 12-month strip holds steady at ~$4.15/MMBtu). He noted the remarkable surge in Lower-48 dry gas production, from 108-109bcfpd a month ago to a weekend peak of ~114bcfpd, now settling in at 112-113bcfpd. Jeff Tillery shared a few themes he’s watching heading into the next few quarters. In traditional energy, oilfield services stocks are jumping even as oil prices fall, raising the question of whether the market is signali
We are thrilled to share what is now our sixth annual COBT Thanksgiving episode, showcasing and thanking the hardworking people working in energy who make Thanksgiving Day possible. Earlier this year, after hosting Jim Grech, President and CEO of Peabody on COBT (episode linked here), Mike Bradley floated the idea of filming our Thanksgiving episode at the North Antelope Rochelle Mine (NARM). Jim and his team were gracious enough to say yes and made this special visit possible.
Our team travelled to NARM in Gillette, Wyoming, and met with the mine’s management and safety teams for an in-depth overview of operations before heading out for a tour. Following the tour, Mike Bradley and Maynard sat down with Pat Forkin, Executive Vice President, Global Strategy and Peabody Development, and Clayton Kyle, Production Manager at NARM, for a fantastic discussion.
Our conversation with Pat and Clayton covered NARM’s operations, scale, and logistics as the largest coal mine in North America, producing ~12% of U.S. coal. We discuss the mine’s daily activity, filling 12-13 trains per day each with ~150 cars and ~16,500 tons (>200,000 tons of coal produced per day), as well as coal’s role in the U.S. power mix and Peabody’s safety-first culture and use of technology onsite. Clayton shares his on-the-ground perspective on Peabody’s workforce, the demanding schedules, the team’s pride in tough work and long tenure, and the company’s 142-year history. We explore Peabody’s engagement with multiple federal agencies and the growing opportunity around critical minerals and rare earths. A major highlight was the mine’s extensive land reclamation process including backfilling pits, replacing topsoil, restoring hydrology, and returning the land to conditions well beyond minimum requirements through improved soils, carefully designed vegetation, grazing practices, and habitat restoration that often attracts more wildlife post-mining. The whole Peabody team’s pride in their work was readily apparent and we truly enjoyed the discussion.
We can’t thank the Peabody team enough for their hospitality and for the hard work they put in every day. For them, today is simply another workday, and the job still needs to get done. We hope you enjoy this special conversation as much as we did. And for everyone working today at the mine, THANK YOU!
Happy Thanksgiving to you all! We are thankful for you!
It is our honor to welcome back Governor Mike Dunleavy of Alaska. We last hosted the Governor on COBT in May of 2023 (episode linked here), and there has been much to cover since our last visit. Governor Dunleavy is Alaska’s 12th Governor and was first elected in 2018 (and again in 2022). He moved to Alaska in 1983 and served as a teacher, principal, and superintendent in Arctic communities before his 5-year term as a State Senator from 2013 to 2018. Throughout his career, Governor Dunleavy has been committed to opening Alaska to new business and investment. We were thrilled to host the Governor to explore the latest energy developments in Alaska, what’s top of mind for the state, and more.
In our conversation, we explore Alaska as an “energy laboratory” given the state’s unique mix of energy production, policy, federal lands, abundance of water, technology, and geopolitics. We discuss the impact of shifting federal administrations on Alaska, the scale and federal ownership of its land, and the statehood mandate to develop its resources to fund government operations. We examine the need for legislative reform to address the problems of both “lawfare” and permitting, the growing opportunity around rare earths and critical minerals in Alaska, the benefits of the federal government as an equity partner, mining as a national security issue, post-COVID workforce shifts, and the renewed importance of trade work and skilled labor. Gov. Dunleavy shares his perspective on affordability and energy prices in Alaska, current issues around the need for more gas supply and potential LNG imports, and the Alaska Natural Gas Pipeline (AGLNG Glenfarne Project). He outlines his vision for Alaska’s future as a premier location for AI data centers and its ambition to be the data transportation capital of the world. We touch on Alaska’s desire to “create the future” rather than simply react to it, the role and gatekeeping power of the Army Corps of Engineers in 404 water permits, and Alaska’s strategic position as “America’s fort” in the Arctic. We also discuss the Alaska Sustainable Energy Conference, with its fifth iteration taking place in May 2026, which Veriten is excited to attend. We greatly enjoyed hosting Governor Dunleavy and look forward to staying in touch.
To start the show, Mike Bradley highlighted that markets continue to be volatile from week to week. On the bond market front, the 10-year bond yield has traded down to under 4% on optimism that Kevin Hassett looks to be the frontrunner for Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Hassett is considered more dovish and so markets are responding positively, at least initially, for the potential of additional interest rate cuts in 2026. On the broader equity market front, the DJIA was also up 500-600 points on optimism that more interest rate cuts are coming in 2026 despite US economic readings being a bit mixed. On the oil market front, WTI price is now trading under $58/bbl due to continued concerns of a global oil oversupply situation in 2026 (anywhere from 2- 4mmbpd) and potentially into 2027. JPM jumped further onto the bearish oil bandwagon this week, indicating that oil prices in 2027 could trade under $40/bbl. He closed by noting that some initial momentum for a Russia/Ukraine peace plan has also weighed on oil prices this week.
Thanks again to Governor Dunleavy for sharing his time and for a fantastic discussion. Please stay tuned for a Special Edition COBT episode publishing on Thanksgiving Day! Our best to you all.
Today we had the opportunity to host Jim Bride, President of Energy Tariff Experts (ETE). We became familiar with Jim after reading his report on power generation costs and impacts on electric bills earlier this year (linked here). Jim founded ETE in 2013 to provide expert consulting, data products, and analysis related to retail electricity, natural gas, and water rates. Before founding ETE, Jim served as a Portfolio Manager at EnerNOC and earlier in his career worked as an environmental professional at Tetra Tech EMI, focused on EPA Superfund investigations and brownfield remediation. ETE helps clients navigate the complex world of energy rates by providing actionable data and insights on utility pricing structures to facilitate efficient capital deployment, reduce energy expenses, and enhance the performance of distributed energy resource management systems. We were thrilled to visit with Jim to discuss ETE’s report and the power landscape more broadly.
In our conversation, we begin by exploring how rising power prices, especially in the PJM market, are gaining political attention. Jim then provides a brief history of the utility sector, tracing the deregulation movement that began in the 1980s and ultimately reshaped the industry into separate components for generation, transmission, and distribution. We discuss how each of these components, along with public-policy charges like renewable mandates or green standards, contribute to PJM customers’ bills. Jim describes his team’s extensive effort to reconstruct 12 years of utility tariff data to understand which costs have been driving recent increases. Their findings show that while generation costs had broadly fallen for a decade due to cheap shale-driven natural gas and competitive markets, only spiking briefly during the Ukraine-related gas price surge, transmission charges have grown significantly as utilities invest heavily in new and replacement infrastructure under favorable FERC rules. In states like New Jersey and Maryland, public-policy charges tied to decarbonization mandates have also risen meaningfully. The result is that today’s higher bills stem mainly from transmission spending and policy add-ons, not from generation itself, though all components interact. The discussion closes with reflections on aging grid assets, rising load from electrification and data centers, and how future planning and policy choices will shape costs going forward. It was a meaty conversation and we greatly appreciate Jim joining us.
To start the show, Mike Bradley highlighted that markets over the last week can best be described as “wobbly” due to growing interest rate cut concerns, continued broader market valuation concerns, and AI/Tech equity exhaustion. On the bond market front, the 10-year bond yield has crept up recently to just over 4.1% on concerns that the Fed may not cut interest rates at their December FOMC Meeting. The odds of a December rate cut have fallen from ~75% just a few weeks ago to ~50% today. Over the last month, Bitcoin has plunged from a peak of ~$125k to ~$90k, which also implies there’s a bit of a risk-off trade occurring. On the broader equity market front, the S&P 500 is down ~3% over the last week (down ~5% from recent highs) and seems to have lost its long-held trading momentum. Big6 AI/Tech stocks are down ~11% from recent all-time highs and both the S&P 500 and Big6 AI/Tech stocks are nearing technically oversold levels, which hasn’t been seen since the April tariff scare. NVIDIA will report its Q3 results after the close on Wednesday, and it will be a huge test to see whether Big AI/Tech equities will continue to be the broader equity market leaders. On the oil market front, the WTI price continues to hold the $60/bbl level, with the biggest overhang continuing to be the size of the 2026 global oil supply surplus. The IEA
Today we had the very exciting opportunity to host Håkan Agnevall, President and CEO of Wärtsilä. Håkan assumed the role of CEO in February 2021 and most recently served as President of Volvo Buses and a member of the Volvo Group Management. In his career, he has held senior management positions with ABB and Bombardier in power systems, robotics, and industrial automation. He has extensive international experience, having worked and lived in the U.S., Canada, Thailand, Brazil, Switzerland and Sweden. Wärtsilä is a global leader in technologies and solutions for the maritime and energy markets. In its Energy business, they offer flexible engine power plants, integrated energy-storage and optimization technologies, and services for the whole lifecycle of their installations. Its Marine portfolio includes engines, propulsion systems and hybrid technologies, integrated powertrain solutions, plus upgrades and lifecycle solutions for vessels. We were thrilled to hear Håkan’s perspectives on the evolving energy, marine, and power landscapes.
We covered a lot of territory in our conversation, starting with the decarbonization journey in global shipping, how the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) net-zero-by-2050 framework is reshaping vessel design and fueling strategies, and the growing importance of fuel flexibility and efficiency in an increasingly complex regulatory environment as the IMO’s carbon-pricing decision delay risks a patchwork of regional rules across the EU, China, and beyond. Håkan walks us through examples of multi-fuel flexibility, how those choices influence vessel architecture, and how shipowners are adapting to the EU ETS and FuelEU Maritime rules, which could roughly double fuel costs by 2030. We discuss Wärtsilä’s energy and power business, which provides baseload and balancing power solutions across the U.S. and globally, how data centers are driving off-grid generation, and how Wärtsilä’s modular reciprocating engines offer speed-to-market advantages through fast ramp rates, redundancy, and minimal water needs. We explore Wärtsilä’s lifecycle service model, the company’s global culture and Finnish heritage, their emphasis on innovation, Wärtsilä’s Sustainable Technology Hub in Vaasa, where thousands of customers visit each month, and much more. It was a fascinating look at the intersection of shipping, power, and technology, and we can’t thank Håkan enough for sharing his time and insights.
Mike Bradley opened the discussion by highlighting that this week was full of notable events. The first was the imminent reopening of the U.S. government, which will finally allow for the release of key economic data that could influence the early-December FOMC rate decision and lead to heightened bond market volatility. Next, he discussed the COP 30 Conference currently underway in Brazil, noting its key theme of “getting back on track with Paris levels.” He also pointed out Chevron’s Investor Day taking place this Wednesday and shared his takeaways from the Edison Electric Institute (EEI) Conference that he attended over the past few days, where two major themes were “affordability” and “speed to market.” Lastly, he noted this week marks the somber 50th anniversary of the sinking of the Edmund Fitzgerald in Lake Superior, a tragic event in U.S. maritime history. Jeff Tillery also joined and added his thoughts throughout the discussion.
We look forward to staying in touch with Håkan and as always, thank you for your support and friendship!
Today we were delighted to welcome Dr. Anas Alhajji, Managing Partner of Energy Outlook Advisors and Author of the Energy Outlook Advisors Substack (linked here). Dr. Alhajji is a leading expert on global energy markets. He advises governments, companies, financial institutions, and investors on oil and gas outlooks, energy geopolitics, energy security, and the impact of disruptive technologies on supply and demand. Anas previously served as Chief Economist at NGP Energy Capital Management and taught economics at the University of Oklahoma, the Colorado School of Mines, and Ohio Northern University. He holds an M.A. and Ph.D. in Economics, with a specialization in energy economics and policy. We were thrilled to hear his insights on the oil markets and beyond.
In our conversation, Anas explains why mainstream oil-market commentary often falls short, how OPEC’s role is to match supply and demand, and shares on-the-ground sentiment from ADIPEC including a focus on AI and “energy addition, not transition,” with OPEC’s outlook seeing demand rising toward ~123 mmb/d. We discuss structural demand drivers including urbanization, immigration, rising incomes, and AI/data centers plus autonomous vehicles and the equity valuation puzzle amid inventories and spare capacity. Anas details the “oil on the water” debate including why recent headline numbers were overstated and how different factors from Iranian tankers suddenly broadcasting their transponders, Saudi barrels routed to Egypt but for Saudi-owned storage, Brazilian cargoes diverted to China, slower ship speeds, and others all swell oil-at-sea without adding supply. We explore how Aramco and ADNOC are evolving into global energy companies, why Saudi is leaning on renewables and nuclear to free oil for export, what to make of Saudi rigs and capacity, and why demand analysis should prioritize growth rates over absolute levels given definitional differences and the IEA’s repeated upward revisions. Anas argues the IEA has persistently underestimated demand (including major multi-year revisions), contrasts IEA growth figures with stronger observed U.S. demand, and notes record U.S. crude without shale growth. We also touch on SPR strategy, why Anas believes the large 2022 release worked, his critique of “circular information” among agencies, banks, and media plus conformity shaping bearish narratives, the limited efficacy of current sanctions regimes, and much more. It was a wide-ranging discussion and we’re grateful to Anas for sharing his expertise with us.
To start the show, Mike Bradley noted that the U.S. Government shutdown has reached Day 35, tying the previous record set during President Trump’s first term. In oil markets, WTI continues to hover around $60/bbl and is still being impacted by 2026 global oil supply concerns. OPEC+ agreed to raise December oil production by 137kbpd (consensus) but will pause oil production increments in January, February, and March. On the broader equity market front, the S&P 500 is down ~1% this week and looks to be losing some trading momentum after a huge recent run. Many of the Big6 AI/Tech stocks reported Q3 results last week, which were generally solid with AI capex spending budgets heading higher as expected. Over the last week or so, these same AI/Tech stocks were down 3-5% (on average) due to both growing valuation concerns and sustainability of this AI rally. These Big Tech stocks make up >35% of the S&P 500 market-cap, and if they sneeze, markets could catch a cold. Aramco reported quarterly results this week and struck a pretty constructive tone with one of its key highlights this quarter being an increase in their natural gas production capacity growth target (by 2030) to 80% up from 60%. On the E&P equity front, gassy E&Ps have been pretty constructive but aren’t leaning into gas growth just yet, while oily E&Ps are taking a more cau
Today we had the pleasure of hosting Obinna Isiadinso, Global Sector Lead for Data Center Investments at the International Finance Corporation (IFC), a member of the World Bank Group and the largest global development institution focused on the private sector in emerging markets. Obinna leads investment teams on valuation and execution considerations, reviews private equity and credit transaction structures, and participates in transaction negotiations in the Data Center and Cloud sectors in emerging markets globally. He is also the author of the Global Data Center Hub on Substack (linked here). His career spans private equity, infrastructure, and real assets. We were thrilled to host Obinna and learn from him on one of today’s most dynamic topics.
In our discussion, Obinna outlines the IFC’s role as the private financing arm of the World Bank, shares his background in private equity and digital infrastructure, and describes his current global portfolio focus. He explains the IFC’s structure and mission to achieve commercial returns while ensuring developmental impact, its ~$100 billion balance sheet, and dual role as a lender and equity investor. We cover the IFC’s role in digital infrastructure and data centers, why data centers matter for emerging market development, the IFC’s investment approach and capital structure, and Obinna’s Substack, which tracks and summarizes global data center activity. We discuss global market sizing (U.S. ~30 GW; Northern Virginia 3–4 GW; Europe FLAP-D ~1-1.5 GW each; South America ~1 GW; Africa ~500 MW, ~250 MW in South Africa; India ~1.2-1.3 GW; China ~3-4 GW; Malaysia ~250 MW with ~1 GW pipeline in 3-5 years), the growth outlook with hyperscalers planning to add 30-50 GW in 3-5 years and roughly ~$400 billion capex this year, cost benchmarks ($10-12 million/MW plus chips), build times, EBITDA economics, current valuation multiples, the evolving fuel mix, and the IFC’s sustainability criteria. Obinna summarizes the IFC’s market-by-market approach to energy sourcing, rising power demand in emerging markets (and potential competition for scarce power), the IFC’s initiatives to expand generation and grid capacity in Africa, and the Middle East’s bid to be a ‘Switzerland of AI Infrastructure.’ We ended by asking Obinna for key trends he’s watching including diversification of AI models, continuous training workloads, and growing private credit participation. It was a fascinating conversation and we can’t thank Obinna enough for joining and sharing his insights. We look forward to staying in touch.
Mike Bradley noted that this will be a pivotal week for markets, with the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday, a slew of Q3 reports from Big AI/Tech and Energy/Electricity companies throughout this week, and an OPEC+ meeting being held over the weekend. In the bond market, the 10-year bond yield continues to be stuck in the 4% range. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25bps both this week and again in December. On the oil market front, WTI price has slipped back to ~$60/bbl as oil traders seem fixated again on the 2026 oil supply surplus rather than Russian oil sanctions. OPEC+ is expected to raise November oil production by another 137kbpd (similar to October) at this weekend’s OPEC+ meeting. At Veriten, we still envision oil markets in 2026 being a “tale of two markets” with 1H26 being challenged and 2H26 being pretty constructive. In global market news, President Javier Milei’s party scored a major win in Argentina’s legislative elections, sending bond yields lower, the peso modestly higher, and a 20%+ surge in the Argentina stock market. On the broader equity market front, the S&P 500 continues to reach new highs with this week’s move mostly due to optimism of a China-U.S. trade deal. A handful of Big AI/Tech names will be reporting this week (AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, META & MSFT) which could increase broader marke
Today was a truly incredible day. As you know, COBT began in the spring of 2020 with the original mission of trying to share better and more informed energy macro perspectives with the energy-curious world. Over the past five and a half years, it has evolved to become something much bigger, a platform to share a wide range of energy perspectives.
Today marked a watershed moment in the history of energy education. As noted in the official press release linked here, Bob Zorich, Partner and Co-Founder of EnCap Investments, made an extraordinarily generous donation to Arizona State University with the sole purpose of advancing energy education. Bob is an alumnus of ASU's Thunderbird School of Global Management, and the investment will directly support energy education and innovation, advancing practical, fact-based solutions to global energy challenges.
For those of you who are regular listeners or viewers, you may remember we hosted Dr. Michael Crow, President of ASU, on the podcast in September (episode linked here). What’s particularly exciting about ASU is the University’s commitment to reimagining education, scaling access, and transforming workforce development. Bob Zorich, as a highly accomplished energy business leader, is passionate about improving energy education and seems to have found a phenomenal partner in ASU.
In this week’s segment, we broadcast live from ASU’s rollout of the new energy education initiative here in Houston. We caught up with Michael and Bob for a quick conversation on a very busy day to discuss the initiative, Bob’s passion for expanding energy knowledge, ASU’s commitment to fostering problem-solving, the university’s diverse student body and global reach, and more. You’ll also see Michael and Bob’s panel from the event discussing the initiative in detail. We greatly appreciate Michael and Bob for including Veriten in this exciting event.
As a wrap up, we are delighted to share that this week marks our 300th regularly scheduled COBT episode. We appreciate the Veriten community and the many great guests who have joined us along the way. We look forward to the next 300 episodes and where they will take us. All we can promise is that we’ll continue following our curiosity wherever it leads us and remain committed to letting our guests openly talk about their perspectives so you can form your own views on the complex energy, power, and environmental issues of the day.
Our best to you all!
Today we had the pleasure of hosting William Clouston, Party Leader of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) in the United Kingdom. William has served as Party Leader since 2018 and was re-elected in March 2020. He originally joined the SDP in 1982 and spent four years in the Conservative Party, becoming a District Councilor and serving on Tynedale Council. He holds both undergraduate and master’s degrees in Urban Planning and Property Management. We became interested in connecting with William after reading the SDP’s Energy Abundance paper published in September (linked here). Founded in 1981, the SDP is an economically left leaning and culturally traditional political party. Its flagship “Social Market” economic model views the private and public sectors not as opponents but as complementary parts of the same society. We were delighted to connect with William for an insightful discussion on the UK and Europe’s energy policies and beyond.
We covered a wide range of topics in our conversation, beginning with the purpose and motivation for writing Energy Abundance, including Britain’s current energy crisis, marked by too little power, high costs, and overreliance on imports. William shares the history of the government’s role in energy policy and the SDP’s argument for a return to government-led energy development, starting with building gas and coal plants. He discusses reactions to the paper, the urgency of rebuilding domestic energy capacity, and the importance of distinguishing cost and value when considering investing $150 billion in grid stabilization and baseload generation. We compare the UK’s energy landscape to Germany and the U.S., the risk of further productivity decline if energy issues persist, and public awareness of the energy crisis, which remains politically constrained by cultural and institutional apathy. We explore the SDP’s economic and political philosophy, including the party’s support for strategic trade protection and tariffs and its cultural traditionalism, emphasizing family as the foundation of society, nation-states, borders, and conventional values. We touch on how energy debates are often constrained by social norms, particularly around net zero, the SDP’s 10-year energy plan proposing a state-run, vertically integrated utility, the UK’s historical “dash for gas” and current overreliance on renewables, and the party’s support for large-scale nuclear, favoring its “brute force” capacity and proven designs. We ended by asking William for his vision of the UK in ten years. We learned a lot and greatly appreciate William for sharing his deep knowledge of British politics, policies, and culture with us all.
To start the show, Mike Bradley noted that the S&P 500 is up ~2% this week on better than expected quarterly results from the Big US Banks. AI & Electricity mania remain “the” key equity market drivers, which has also pushed the Consumer Discretionary, Technology & Utilities sectors higher this week. On the crude oil market front, WTI has sunk to ~$59/bbl, partly on the Gaza Peace Agreement but mainly due to growing concern with the 2026 global oil supply surplus. Both the IEA and OPEC published their monthly oil outlooks, with the IEA projecting a ~4mmbpd 2026 surplus, which is ridiculously higher than all other estimates. The reason oil prices seem to be moving lower this week (versus previous weeks) is because oil traders are pressing their bearish bets now that crude oil prices have finally broken to the downside. On the energy equity front, one of this week’s biggest Energy/Electricity equity movers is Bloom Energy (up ~30%) on news Brookfield struck a $5B strategic partnership with Bloom to be their preferred fuel cell supplier at Brookfield’s global AI factories. Q3 Energy results kick off this week with most investors expecting to hear a softening frac story but a scaling up of their power business. Most investors
Today we were thrilled to host Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Managing Director of U.S. Power, Utilities, and Clean Energy Research at Jefferies. Julien joined the firm in July 2024 after serving as a Senior Research Analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and as an Executive Director at UBS. He holds an MBA and a B.S. in Applied Mathematics from Columbia University. Institutional Investor magazine has ranked Julien as a #1 double-ranked analyst in both Utilities and Alternative/Clean Energy, and he was inducted into the II Hall of Fame for his cumulative accomplishments. It was our pleasure to welcome Julien to our office and hear his thoughtful perspectives on the ever-evolving energy and power landscape.
In our discussion, we explore Julien’s coverage universe, which he describes as “the full electron and derivatives landscape” spanning utilities, IPPs, renewables, gas plants, industrial adjacencies, and service providers. We discuss the influx of new investors entering power and utilities, Julien’s observation that the biggest surprise isn’t data center proliferation, but rather how tech companies are paying premiums for power to secure supply, and how utilities once seen as “defensive” are now showing growth characteristics. We touch on the tension between tech companies’ need for rapid, large-scale power and their reluctance to become capital-intensive or FERC-regulated, why we’re not seeing more long-term offtakes with existing power plants and how state level politics play into it, and how legacy players, new entrants, and regulators are all adapting to a power market being reshaped by AI demand, infrastructure bottlenecks, and novel deal structures. Julien shares that rising inflation across the economy is showing up in utility bills and expresses concern that LNG developers or data centers could be scapegoated for higher gas and power prices. He highlights the parabolic rise in the value of capacity and reliability, the drivers of power inflation including turbine shortages and rising capital costs, whether utilities are properly incentivized to control costs, the role of demand-response mechanisms, and how regulatory and state-level actions are shaping markets. We cover power market scenarios for high and low demand cases, the role of innovation in batteries, fuel cells, and other technologies, and the tension between patching existing systems versus building large-scale infrastructure. We also discuss constraints on ramping renewables, the growing influence of behind-the-meter power, implications for Q3 earnings, and much more. We covered a lot of territory and greatly enjoyed the conversation. To be added to Julien’s research distribution list, click here.
To start the show, Mike Bradley noted that markets continue to be mostly focused on the U.S. Government shutdown. The 10-year bond yield continues to trade sideways at ~4.1% with economic reports on pause until the government reopens. Internationally, Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party elected Sanae Takaichi (who is viewed as fiscally expansionary), which some believe increases the risk of an unwind of the long-standing Yen carry trade. The S&P 500 is up roughly 80bps since the government shutdown, with Healthcare and Technology outperforming. He highlighted AMD’s chip deal with OpenAI, which added roughly $70B in market cap, and Oracle’s pullback on AI cloud margin concerns. On the crude oil market front, WTI price has increased modestly this week due to OPEC+ announcing a smaller than expected ~135kbpd oil production increase for November. While this could widen the 2026 surplus, traders are weighing when and how prices might react amid limited OPEC spare capacity. On the energy equity front, he pointed out FERMI America’s strong IPO debut and continued investor enthusiasm for electricity generation. He ended by flagging the upcoming Rockpoint Gas Storage IPO (280bcf in Canada &
We are back on the road this week for an insightful visit with Ray Zage, CEO of Tiga Investments, and Shon Hiatt, Director of the Zage Business of Energy Initiative and Associate Professor of Business Administration at the University of Southern California. Ray is a seasoned global investor who has led Tiga since 2017. He began his career at Goldman Sachs and has held roles in Singapore, New York, and Los Angeles. He serves on multiple boards and also advises early-stage technology ventures. Shon joined the USC Marshall School of Business from Harvard in 2014 and is also a Distinguished Fellow at the Hamm Institute for American Energy. His research focuses on entrepreneurship, global strategy, innovation and sustainability. This week, USC is hosting its annual Energy Business Summit (details here). We were delighted to spend time with Ray and Shon to hear their perspectives on today’s evolving academic and energy landscape.
In our conversation, we discuss the Zage Business of Energy Initiative and its mission to build a pipeline of future energy leaders equipped to develop practical investment approaches and spark innovation and entrepreneurship across industries. Shon reflects on his research in Europe, noting parallels with California’s energy challenges, and Ray shares his motivation to support broader, more objective research in energy beyond just “cleanliness,” shaped in part by his experiences across Asia and his perspective on long-term, balanced energy policy. We explore the history of energy at USC, California’s refining and energy policy challenges, lessons from Asia, China, and Singapore’s long-term planning, the growing energy needs of data centers in Asia versus the U.S., and the strategic positioning of countries like Singapore. We touch on the USC Energy Business Summit and its lineup of topics from energy storage and renewables, nuclear energy, and AI and energy demand, as well as the growing interest among students in pursuing energy careers. We address global electricity demand trends, energy affordability in emerging economies, the impacts of geopolitical instability on energy security, China’s energy strategy, the global competition for raw materials, nuclear power developments, Silicon Valley’s growing embrace of nuclear and natural gas, the need for durable laws to support long-term energy investment, and more. We greatly enjoyed the discussion and appreciate Shon and Ray for joining.
Mike Bradley kicked us off by noting that markets were largely focused this week on the impending U.S. government shutdown. Over the past 50 years, there have been 21 shutdowns with an average length of 7-8 days. The longest shutdown was 35 days (Dec. 2018 to Jan. 2019), which occurred during President Trump’s first term. On the bond market front, the 10-year bond yield (4.15%) was down marginally this week on the impending shutdown. Bond markets are mostly focused on employment reports this week (JOLTS Job Openings, Initial Jobless Claims and Nonfarm Payrolls) which would be delayed in a shutdown. On the broader equity market front, the S&P 500 seems to be in “no man’s land” at least until investors see the outcome and duration of this impending shutdown. On the crude oil market front, WTI price was down ~$3/bbl (~$63/bbl) this week for a couple potential reasons. Oil traders are growing concerned that OPEC+ could announce an oil production increase for November of 500kbpd (and 1.5mmbpd over the next three months) at their October 5th Meeting, which would increase the 2026 global oil surplus even further. In addition, President Trump’s Gaza Peace Plan may also be weighing a little bit on oil price because it eliminates any “perceived” war premium in oil prices. He ended by discussing the impending Fermi America IPO (FRMI). Fermi, co-founded by former Energy Secretary Rick Perry, is a planned 11 GW energy and data center c
Today we had the exciting opportunity to host Thomas Popik for a power-focused discussion. Thomas is the Chairman and President of the Foundation for Resilient Societies, a non-profit dedicated to strengthening the resilience and recoverability of critical infrastructure. In addition to his volunteer leadership at the Foundation, Thomas serves as a Principal at Geosegment Systems Corporation. He holds an MBA from Harvard and a B.S. in Mechanical Engineering from MIT. The Foundation for Resilient Societies is distinguished by the depth of its scientific, economic, and legal expertise. Several of its directors have held senior policymaking positions in the U.S. Government and now continue their societal contributions through private action. The Foundation has been instrumental in advancing policies and recommendations to better protect the electrical grid and other vital systems from emerging threats. We were thrilled to host Thomas.
In our conversation, Thomas outlines the mission of the Foundation and how its nonprofit status strengthens credibility, recruitment, and advocacy. He highlights the rising frequency of outage “near misses” that the public is largely unaware of, the Foundation’s engagement with FERC, NERC, and DOE, and how this work has helped shift official recognition of risks, including DOE’s recent warning of up to 800 blackout hours per year by 2030. Thomas traces how we arrived at this level of instability, with factors including a net loss of ~1% per year in dispatchable capacity over the past decade, the retirements of coal, older gas, and petroleum-fired plants, and their replacement with wind and solar, which lack dispatchability. He shares market history, from the pre-2000 overbuild that drove up rates, through the 2010s when flat load growth masked declining capacity, to 2024, with excess capacity gone and the grid maxed out. Thomas outlines near-term solutions for grid stability, including halting premature retirements of dispatchable generation, enabling the use of backup generators at critical infrastructure, and improving legal and regulatory mechanisms to prevent retirements and declare emergencies. On the consumer side, we discuss tools such as dynamic pricing to discourage peak-time consumption, shifting habits like EV charging, and aggregating flexible load reductions from schools, homes, and businesses. Thomas also highlights the importance of public messaging to encourage rapid conservation during emergencies and notes longer-term measures including building new dispatchable generation. As mentioned, the DOE Resource Adequacy Report published in July is linked here. We learned a lot from our conversation with Thomas and greatly appreciate him joining us.
To start the show, Mike Bradley noted that markets seemed to be in “no man’s land.” On the bond market front, the 10-year bond yield has risen over the last week, despite the Fed following through with a 25 basis-point interest rate cut and signaling the potential for two more cuts this year. Looking ahead, employment reports, rather than inflation reports, are likely going to be the Fed’s main focus. On the broader market front, the S&P 500 continues to hit all-time highs but is beginning to feel like it’s in no man’s land given that the FOMC meeting is in the rearview mirror and Q3 earnings reports are not on tap for several more weeks. On the crude oil market front, WTI price continues to trade in the low to mid $60s/bbl due to the give/take of Russian oil sanctions/energy infrastructure damage versus concerns of a 2026 global oil surplus keeping a ceiling on oil prices. On the electricity/energy equity front, he highlighted Landbridge Company’s strategic partnership with NRG Energy on a potential data center in the Delaware Basin and noted that Governor Shapiro of Pennsylvania warned this
Today we were delighted to welcome KR Sridhar, Ph.D., Founder, Chairman, and CEO of Bloom Energy. KR’s academic background includes a Ph.D. in Mechanical Engineering, a Master’s in Nuclear Engineering, and a Bachelor’s in Mechanical Engineering. Before founding Bloom, KR served as Director of the Space Technologies Laboratory at the University of Arizona, where he led a NASA project to develop fuel cells capable of producing oxygen for future Mars missions. That breakthrough research ultimately inspired the founding of Bloom Energy in 2001. Bloom went public in 2018 and is a leader in solid oxide fuel cell technology, delivering always-on, on-site power. Its systems convert natural gas, biogas, or hydrogen into electricity without combustion, helping power data centers and hospitals to microgrids and industrial facilities and beyond. We were thrilled to visit with KR to discuss fuel cells, the evolving power landscape, Bloom’s progress, and what lies ahead.
In our conversation, KR shares reflections on the past 24 years of technology development since founding Bloom in 2001 and his original vision for the company, the shift from the mechanical/industrial age to the digital age, and the opportunity he saw to support rising energy demand driven by economic growth. We discuss Bloom’s high-temperature solid oxide fuel cells, the history of the underlying physics stemming from an 1890s patent, product development and commercialization, and KR’s reliance on top-tier, seasoned venture investors willing to commit capital and time. We explore the advantages of being in Silicon Valley with access to risk capital and highly skilled engineers, Bloom’s strategic choice to focus on natural gas as a commercially viable fuel, and KR’s thesis on distributed electricity as a way to provide access, affordability, and sustainability. KR discusses Bloom’s fuel cell technology and strategic design choices, highlighting the application of Moore’s Law to drive annual cost reductions, and outlines the target market and growth trajectory, focusing on AI data centers and the increasing need for on-site power. He emphasizes the advantages of Bloom’s modular on-site power solutions, commercial adoption milestones, and the company’s cost-effectiveness compared with traditional turbines and engines. We touch on Bloom technology’s scalability from powering a store to a full data center or factory, their supply chain and ability to scale rapidly to meet growing demand, the technology moat between them and any other competitor, and Bloom’s relationship with natural gas producers. We had a hard time ending the discussion, but to conclude, we asked KR for his vision for Bloom ten years from now. He shared an inspiring vision for abundant, affordable, accessible, and sustainable electricity. As mentioned, Bloom’s recent white paper on fuel cells is linked here. We greatly appreciate KR for sharing his time and unique insights.
To kick us off, Mike Bradley noted that all eyes are on Wednesday’s FOMC Rate Decision Meeting, with consensus expecting a 25 basis-point interest rate cut and two additional 25 basis-point rate cuts through year-end. He emphasized that Wednesday’s rate cut is fully consensus/dialed in and wouldn’t be surprised if the week proves to be more of a “buy the rumor, sell the fact.” Furthermore, Chairman Powell’s press conference tone will be extremely important in determining how aggressive interest rate cuts could be through year-end. On the broader market front, the S&P 500 has historically risen ~0.5% on average one week following the last three interest rate cuts, so there could be some very-very modest follow through this week. Equity market observers are hopeful that a series of interest rate cuts will allow market breadth to expand beyond AI/Big Tech stocks, which currently comprise ~35% of the S&
It was our pleasure to welcome back our good friend Roger Pielke Jr., Author of The Honest Broker on Substack and Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, for an insightful discussion on the U.S. Department of Energy’s climate risk assessment report on the impacts of greenhouse gas emissions (linked here). Roger is a Professor Emeritus in the College of Arts and Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder, where he previously served as a professor in the Environmental Studies department for over 23 years. His research focuses on science and technology policy, the politicization of science, government science advice, and energy and climate. The Honest Broker reaches more than 36,000 subscribers in over 160 countries. We always value Roger’s perspective on the evolving climate policy and energy landscape and were thrilled to visit with him.
In our conversation, Roger provides context for the DOE report, including the history of U.S. climate regulation and key milestones such as the Clean Air Act, Massachusetts v. EPA classifying CO₂ as a pollutant, and the endangerment finding under the Obama Administration. He outlines both the constructive discussions and contentious debates the report sparked as well as challenges in climate science discourse where debate is polarized along partisan lines and questions or alternative views are often penalized. We discuss energy demand beyond Western-centric perspectives and the importance of objective, fact-based discussion in balancing emissions reduction goals with realistic energy needs and technological development. Roger shares his perspective on the political implications of the DOE report, including how it could influence the endangerment finding, the low scientific bar required under the Clean Air Act, the need to democratize climate science for broader public understanding, the importance of constructive debate among experts, the risk of overly aggressive emissions policies on energy costs and reliability, and the necessity of balancing climate action with political and economic realities. We explore how rising energy demand drives innovation, the actual outcomes of climate policies versus their intended goals, how the 2009 endangerment finding is outdated and needs updating to reflect current science, Roger’s assessment of the strengths and criticisms of the DOE report, and his recent attendance at the Abundance Conference, where he observed bipartisan engagement and discussions on expanding access to energy and improving living standards. We cover the American Enterprise Institute’s nonpartisan mission and focus areas including technology, science, energy, and higher education, the value of fostering “intellectual hospitality,” the role of experts in democracy, the importance of leadership in preserving institutional integrity, the need for healthier, fact-based discussions on climate and policy, and much more. We greatly appreciate Roger for joining and sharing his expertise and insights with us all.
As you’ll hear, we reference a few items in the discussion. Steven Koonin’s opinion piece published Monday in the WSJ is linked here. Roger’s post, “What is the Scientific Threshold for GHG Endangerment?” is linked here and his piece on the climate report titled “A Red Team Climate Report: To correct course, we need open, respectful and informed debate” is linked here. For additional reading, Andrew Dessler’s critiq
Today we were delighted to welcome the Honorable Lisa Raitt, Vice-Chair of Global Investment Banking at CIBC, for an insightful discussion focused on the implications of recent U.S.-Canada trade developments. Lisa joined CIBC Capital Markets in 2020 following an eleven-year tenure in the Government of Canada. Her distinguished career includes serving as Deputy Leader of the Official Opposition and the Conservative Party of Canada, as well as serving as Minister of Natural Resources, Minister of Labor, and Minister of Transport. We were thrilled to host Lisa and hear her valuable perspective on the evolving trade dynamics between the U.S. and Canada.
In our conversation, we explore the Canadian view on President Trump’s recent comments regarding tariffs and Canada’s auto manufacturing industry, along with the broader implications for U.S.-Canada trade relations. We discuss Canada’s political landscape, including Prime Minister Trudeau’s decision to step down after losing party support, the Conservative Party’s growing momentum under Pierre Poilievre, and Canada’s economic challenges and growth concerns. We touch on the unifying effect trade tensions have had on Canadian political and business communities, the potential for retaliatory measures, the need for more power generation, transmission, and distribution to support Canada’s economic growth, and intra-Canada trade complications that impact Canada’s competitiveness. Lisa provides insight into the impact of the Canadian dollar and interest rates, how currency fluctuations affect key sectors including agriculture, manufacturing, tourism, and sports, the deep economic and familial ties between the U.S. and Canada, whether ongoing trade disputes could fundamentally alter the relationship between the two countries, and more. We are very thankful to Lisa for sharing her time and perspective.
Mike Bradley started off the show by highlighting that President Trump’s new tariffs and tariff threats are increasing volatility, but that for the most part, bond and equity markets have been moving sideways. He noted January CPI & PPI will be reported over the next two days which could create added market volatility for bonds and equities. If both inflation reports print cooler-than expected, it will likely lead to intensifying pressure from Trump for the FED to cut interest rates at the March FOMC Meeting. On the crude oil market front, WTI price has rallied this week to ~$73/bbl and crude oil time spreads are pointing to a physically tight oil market. Oil price continues to be impacted by on/off tariff threats and continued OPEC production curtailments but was aided this week on news that Russian oil exports are being impacted by tighter Russian oil sanctions. On the natural gas front, U.S. natural gas prompt price has rebounded to ~$3.50/MMBtu on colder weather and the 12-month natural gas strip is now trading above $4.00/MMBtu. BP indicated on their Q4 call that at current U.S natural gas prices, they were contemplating picking up gas rigs “now” which is a new development. He also noted that European natural gas price was trading at ~$17/MMBtu (~$100/bbl oil equivalent) because European gas storage is draining faster than expected due to colder winter weather and poor renewable performance/utilization. He ended by flagging Equinor’s recent strategy shift (significant reduction in renewables capex thru 2030) and also noted that BP is calling for a “fundamental reset” of their strategy at their Capital Markets Day (Feb 26th). Robert Kester added his thoughts on AI’s dominance in global discourse, highlighting this week’s high-profile AI Summit in Paris and different global approaches to AI, including the U.S.’s free-market stance, Europe’s push for regulation, and China’s state-backed AI expansion.
We hope you all enjoy the discussion with Lisa as much as we did. Our best to you all – and to our friends up north, let’s work this out, eh!
It’s a big week in Houston with NAPE in town, and we were thrilled to welcome our good friend David Bat, President of Kimberlite Research, for an in-depth discussion of the latest OFS activity, trends, and technologies. David joined Kimberlite in 2015 and holds over 30 years of experience spanning upstream, power, and oilfield research. Kimberlite is a global oil and gas market research and consulting firm that gathers insights from more than 20,000 hours of annual interviews with industry professionals to analyze market trends and benchmark performance for oilfield equipment and service providers. We were excited to hear David’s perspectives on the evolving OFS landscape.
In our conversation, David provides background on Kimberlite’s unique approach to gathering high-quality data from E&P operators and oilfield service users worldwide. He explains how their methodology offers deeper insights into technology adoption, service quality, and operational performance and walks us through key slides from a presentation (full version linked here). We explore recent technological advancements including rotary steerable systems improving drilling efficiency, self-oriented perforating guns enhancing completion effectiveness, and advancements in electric submersible pumps. We discuss how digitalization, software applications, and AI-driven analytics are reshaping oilfield operations as well as trends in frac technology, oilfield electrification, and shifts in fuel choices. David shares factors driving operator recommendations and highlights the contrast between North American and international markets, the potential for unconventional growth in Argentina, Australia, and the Middle East, the resurgence of offshore developments, and the challenges that prevent certain innovations from gaining widespread traction. We explore broader key industry themes, including consolidation trends in oilfield services, how company culture influences service provider success, the growing role of mobile power solutions across both oil and gas and non-energy sectors, and AI’s role in data aggregation, market intelligence, and operational decision-making. We end by asking David for his vision of the oil and gas services industry in the next decade. This is where he makes a great comment about "differentiation and an improving competitive moat" around the best companies. It was a wide-ranging and thought-provoking discussion and we’re very grateful to David for sharing his expertise with us.
It was our privilege today to welcome Philippe Ducom, President of ExxonMobil Europe, for a discussion centered on Europe’s challenges regarding energy policy and overall economic competitiveness. Philippe has been with ExxonMobil for 37 years and began his career as an engineer at the Notre-Dame de Gravenchon Chemical plant in Seine-Maritime. Over the years, he has held a variety of senior positions across manufacturing, business analytics, planning, sales, and marketing, working in Europe, Japan, the United States, and Saudi Arabia. Before being appointed as President of ExxonMobil Europe in 2018, Philippe served as Chairman, CEO, and President of ExxonMobil Saudi Arabia and previously led ExxonMobil Japan as Lead Country Manager. We noticed Philippe’s post, “Red tape is driving investment out of Europe – and threatening the energy transition” (linked here), in October of last year and have been eager to discuss. We were thrilled to host Philippe and learn from his unique perspectives and outlook for Europe.
In our conversation, Philippe provides background on the European Parliament and Commission’s five-year cycle, and why the time to discuss these matters is now with a new 5-year legislative cycle just beginning. We discuss the challenges facing Europe including low growth, declining purchasing power, and lack of industrial competitiveness, as well as recommendations to reduce the regulatory burden. Philippe highlights how the previous Commission’s challenges have included managing COVID-19, helping the Ukrainians, pursuing energy security and trying to attain society's climate goals, all of which has bloated government balance sheets. Philippe shares his perspective on the complexity and inefficiency of Europe’s regulatory and permitting process, his recommendations for immediate actions that would require no cost but yield significant improvements, challenges of operating or opening new industrial facilities in Europe and he provides an update on the European chemicals and refining sectors. We examine the structure of the EU, cultural differences in the reliance on markets in the U.S. versus Europe, the importance of free markets and risk-taking to drive innovation and competitiveness, and ExxonMobil’s increased engagement with public policy and public discussions overall. We cover country-specific energy mix decisions among EU member states, how recent geopolitical events have exposed the importance of energy policy and gas infrastructure, Europe’s approach to energy regulation, the growing role of natural gas and nuclear energy in Europe’s energy mix, and the shifting dynamics of gas supply and infrastructure post-Ukraine invasion. We also explore the impact of Europe’s carbon border adjustment mechanism and the notion of extraterritorial regulations, how the U.S. IRA could offer valuable lessons for Europe, and much more. We ended by asking Philippe for his vision for Europe’s energy landscape in the next decade comparing two scenarios, one where Europe continues on its current regulatory path versus one where pragmatic policies are put in place. It was a wide-ranging and insightful discussion.
Today we had the honor of hosting Chairman Thomas Gleeson of the Public Utility Commission of Texas for an insightful and timely discussion focused on power, the dynamics involved, and the power revolution happening in Texas and globally. Chairman Gleeson was appointed by Governor Abbott to his role in January of 2024. He brings 15-years of experience at the PUCT, where he previously served as Executive Director, Chief Operating Officer, Director of Finance and Administration, and Fiscal Project Manager. Prior to joining the PUCT, Chairman Gleeson worked as a legislative analyst for the Texas Senate and as a budget analyst for the Legislative Budget Board. He earned a Master of Public Administration from Texas A&M University. The PUCT is responsible for economic regulation of Texas’s electric, telecommunication, water and wastewater utilities. We were thrilled to visit with the Chairman.
Chairman Gleeson first outlines his objectives upon becoming Chairman, focusing on stabilizing the post-Winter Storm Uri environment, engaging stakeholders, as well as the differences in responsibilities compared to his predecessor, Peter Lake, who managed the immediate crisis after Winter Storm Uri. We discuss the enhanced relationship and collaboration between the PUCT and ERCOT, structural changes to the PUCT to increase the number of commissioners from three to five to improve decision-making and communication during emergencies, improvements in grid performance and reliability during recent cold weather events (including this week’s arctic blast!), and the challenge of meeting Texas’s rapid energy demand growth with infrastructure investments and a diversified energy mix. We discuss efforts to streamline regulatory processes for businesses that are considering relocating to Texas, balancing market growth with policy goals, the state’s focus on energy expansion over transition, and addressing rising demand with all resource types while balancing reliability and costs. We explore collaboration with large companies to build additional generation capacity and support the grid, Texas’s regulatory agility, differences between Texas’s market and capacity markets in other regions, the need for exemptions or adjustments in federal emission standards during emergency grid situations to support grid reliability, and the economics of building new gas-fired power plants. Chairman Gleeson shares insights on the role of large hyperscalers as contributors to infrastructure development rather than just large energy consumers, distributed generation models and how co-locating with grid-connected resources and building additional capacity is the “sweet spot” for collaboration between private entities and the grid, the potential for additional nuclear power in Texas, leveraging Texas’s budget surplus to foster energy innovation and reliability through public-private partnerships, the evolving role of ERCOT in integrating distributed energy resources, and much more. We want to thank Commissioner Gleeson for sharing his time and perspectives with us on a busy day. We look forward to staying in touch.
Mike Bradley was in Panama for this week’s COBT and opened the conversation by relaying that Panamanians seem generally surprised and concerned with Trump’s continued rhetoric around control of the Panama Canal. From an overall markets standpoint, he noted that investors are really focused on Trump getting his Cabinet installed quickly, and more importantly, what Trump’s flurry of Executive Orders means for policy and markets. From a crude oil market standpoint, WTI was down ~$1.50/bbl this week due to Executive Orders to unleash American Energy (lower energy prices?) but mostly due to a rally in the U.S. dollar which is impacting multiple commodities. On the broader equity market front, the DJIA was up 400-500 points as investors seem temporarily relieved that aggressive tariff policies weren’t enacted in Trump’s initial Executive
Many of you have likely noticed the growing interest in Greenland making headlines recently, including the U.S.’s overt interest in potentially “acquiring” the country. As we’ve followed these developments, we have been intrigued to explore further and were fortunate to connect with Dr. Mark Nuttall, Professor and Henry Marshall Tory Chair of Anthropology at the University of Alberta and Adjunct Professor at the Greenland Climate Research Centre. Mark joined the University of Alberta faculty in 2003 and became affiliated with the University of Greenland and the Greenland Climate Research Centre in 2012. He holds a Ph.D. in Arctic Anthropology and his research focuses on the societies and environments of the circumpolar North and Northern Europe. Mark is also the author of several books, including his most recent, “The Shaping of Greenland’s Resource Spaces: Environment, Territory, Geo-Security.” We were delighted to host Mark for an insightful discussion on Greenland’s global significance.
We covered a wide range of topics in our conversation, beginning with Mark’s personal interest and extensive history studying Greenland and the Arctic and Subarctic regions. We discuss the historical context of Greenland’s status and its complex relationship with Denmark, including economic policies, relocation programs, and cultural assimilation efforts that have contributed to Greenlandic attitudes toward Denmark. We explore Greenland’s strategic importance in U.S. and global security strategies dating back to World War II and the Cold War, concerns about how Greenlandic independence could increase foreign influence, particularly from Western adversaries, and Greenland’s economic considerations and resource development. Mark shares insights into Greenland’s regulatory framework and ownership of its subsurface resources, the potential for developing these resources, Greenlanders’ right to self-determination and their cultural and political aspirations for independence, the U.S.’s longstanding interest in Greenland, and its significance in Arctic shipping lanes. We cover challenges for Greenland’s economic independence, including its financial reliance on the Danish block grant, which accounts for 60% of Greenland’s public budget and 20% of its GDP, implications for Denmark if Greenland achieves independence, and concerns about the social and environmental impacts of large-scale resource extraction on small communities. We also explore whether independence might lead to shifts in policies for oil and gas exploration to support Greenland’s economy, the challenges of balancing tourism growth with infrastructure constraints, the unique system of land and resource ownership in Greenland, and more. We greatly appreciate Mark for sharing his deep expertise and perspectives. It was a fantastic discussion.
Mike Bradley opened the conversation by noting that markets are mostly focused on two near-term events: U.S. economic reports this week and Trump’s Executive Orders in the coming weeks. On the bond market front, December PPI printed lower than expected on Tuesday and surprisingly pushed the 10-year bond yield higher (~4.8%) which is the highest 10-year yield since Trump was elected. Investors appear much more focused on Wednesday’s December CPI report which could result in added market volatility. On the broader equity market front, the S&P 500 is down ~2% over the last week and has almost completely roundtripped since Trump was elected. Over the last week, Energy was the best performing S&P sector (+4%) with Technology the worst performing (-5%). On the crude oil market front, WTI price has rallied another $4/bbl (~$78/bbl) this week due to stiffer Russian oil sanctions from the Biden Administration which could ultimately reduce Russian oil exports by 0.5-1.0mmbpd. He noted that these unexpected Russian oil sanctions plus the potential for Iranian oil sanctions under Trump could result in global oil markets going fr
Today we are thrilled to kick off the first COBT episode of 2025 with our good friend Rob West, Founder and Lead Analyst at Thunder Said Energy. Rob started Thunder Said in 2019 and provides unique, thought-provoking, and economic-driven insights into energy transition research and technologies. He is a long-time energy analyst and previously built and led the energy practice at Redburn and served at Sanford C. Bernstein and Partners Capital before launching Thunder Said. This episode marks Rob’s fifth appearance on COBT; he most recently joined in January 2024 (episode linked here). We were delighted to connect with Rob to reflect on 2024 and explore what the future might hold for energy in 2025. Rob has now kicked us off in 2022, 2024 and 2025. This may be becoming a tradition!
We covered a lot of territory in our conversation starting with Rob’s musings on trying to define what energy transition actually means, how the world’s current focus on avoiding catastrophe needs to be replaced with more aspirational visions of human progress, the role of policy, subsidies, and competitiveness, the need for energy abundance to support human development, and the risks of pursuing costly and ineffective strategies that fail to achieve their objectives. Rob shares his perspective on how energy affordability and economic competitiveness influence voter behavior and government policy shifts, how shifting geopolitical dynamics are shaping global energy strategies, the potential for AI to enable breakthroughs on everything from materials value chains to DAC, the geopolitical situation in Estonia, and the broader implications of Russian aggression. At one point Rob observes “the West is already at war, it just doesn’t admit it because of the implications.” We discuss the importance of assigning real weight to geopolitical risks in energy forecasts and market strategies, Rob’s “F-U” Recession Scenario where countries retreat from global trade and cooperation leading to disruptions in energy and other value chains, and Texas’s continued role as a hub for energy innovation and growth. We ended by exploring the global bottleneck in moving energy from where it’s created to where it’s needed, growth opportunities in utilities and midstream, the increasing volatility in energy systems, the concept of the “third great energy transition” with semiconductor technologies, and much more. As mentioned, Rob’s “Energy Transition: Classic Blunders” video from December 2024 is linked here. We can’t thank Rob enough for sharing his time and thoughts with us today to kick off the year in style.
Mike Bradley kicked us off by discussing the performance of bonds, commodities and equities since our last COBT on December 17th with Dr. Steven Koonin (episode linked here). He noted that the 10-year bond is currently yielding ~4.65% (up from ~4.4%) which is a Trump post-election high and a one-year high. The FED cut interest rates 25-basis points at their last FOMC Meeting, and bond trader consensus is now in the camp that there’ll only be two additional interest rate cuts in 2025. On the broader equity market front, the S&P 500 has taken a bit of a breather (down ~1%) with the Energy (+2%) and Technology (+1%) sectors outperforming. On the crude oil market front, WTI oil price has rallied ~$4/bbl (to ~$74/bbl) and has pushed above its recent narrow trading range of $68-$71/bbl. Crude oil trader sentiment heading into 2025 continues to be mostly bearish, even though WTI time spreads having recently spiked, which could be signaling a tighter physical oil market. He further noted that Saudi seems to be getting more constructive on crude oil given that it raised its official selling price to Asia for the first time in three months. Global oil prices also seem
This week we were on the road in Oklahoma City and had the exciting opportunity to sit down with Dr. Ann Bluntzer Pullin, Executive Director of the Hamm Institute for American Energy at Oklahoma State University. Ann was appointed to Executive Director in August and has over 25 years of experience in higher education as a professor and administrator, most recently serving as Executive Director of the Ralph Lowe Energy Institute at TCU’s Neeley School of Business where she served in several leadership capacities for a tenure of eleven years. Ann started her career as a Foreign Service Officer in Education and Agriculture and served in Poland, Lithuania, Indonesia, and Australia. Established in 2021, the Hamm Institute is at the forefront of energy geopolitics and international energy security initiatives, in addition to driving technological and policy innovations through research to address domestic and global energy challenges. It was our pleasure to visit with Ann on-site at the Hamm Institute to discuss their latest updates and observations on today’s energy world.
In our discussion with Ann, we explore the critical intersection of energy security and national security, the Hamm Institute’s mission to foster informed dialogue around energy and economic growth, and the importance of partnerships with responsible energy producers to improve global security and sustainability. Ann shares insights from a recent trip to Taiwan, Korea, and Japan with Governor Stitt of Oklahoma, highlighting discussions with energy ministries, economists, and industry representatives about the energy security challenges faced by these countries, as well as the global trend to prioritize national interests and how a strong and self-reliant America can serve as an example for other nations. We touch on the role of the U.S. in exporting natural resources and fostering energy security, the challenge of balancing short-term geopolitical stability with long-term innovation and sustainability, the Hamm Institute’s efforts alongside OSU to shape global energy discussions and support developing nations’ energy needs, the potential for Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy’s DOGE initiative to disrupt conventional thinking, the positive opportunity for media to bring awareness to government issues and necessary reforms, and much more. We greatly enjoyed the discussion and appreciate the important contributions Ann and the Hamm Institute team are making around energy, particularly with issues around national security and energy security and how they are completely intertwined.
Thanks to Ann for joining and thanks to you all for your friendship and support!
Today we were thrilled to visit with Dr. Steven Koonin, Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, for the final COBT episode of 2024. Dr. Koonin joined the Hoover Institution this year following 12 years at NYU, serving as a professor in the Schools of Business, Engineering, and Physics. Before his tenure at NYU, Dr. Koonin served as the Under Secretary for Science at the U.S. Department of Energy in the Obama Administration. Our discussion was particularly timely as Dr. Koonin recently authored an Op-Ed in the Wall Street Journal entitled “The Right Way for Trump to Ditch the Paris Agreement” (linked here).
Dr. Koonin is also the author of “Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn’t, And Why It Matters.” Today marks Dr. Koonin’s third appearance on COBT (previous episodes include April 20, 2022 linked here and May 17, 2021 linked here). It was fantastic to hear Dr. Koonin’s perspective on energy, climate, and the future as we close out 2024 and look ahead to 2025. As you will hear, he has lots of great thoughts about a broad range of things!
In our conversation, we explore the need for a global course correction in energy and climate policy, the opportunities and challenges of having more business-minded individuals in government, the disconnect between the scientific community and public policy, and the importance of transparency and effective communication by government leaders to explain energy and climate policy issues more clearly to the public. We discuss key points from Dr. Koonin’s Op-Ed, including his proposed actions for the Trump Administration if they were to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement, the implications of Europe’s energy strategies and their lasting consequences, and Dr. Koonin’s suggestions to restructure the Loan Programs Office to prioritize research and development of scalable, economically viable technologies. Dr. Koonin shares his observations on fusion energy as a potentially transformative energy source and the opportunities and challenges involved, talks about intriguing advances in energy storage, and touches on other technological innovations including underground coal gasification with carbon sequestration. We also cover the US’s role in setting an example for energy policy and improving global energy access, Dr. Koonin’s outlook for 2025, and more. It was a wide-ranging and insightful discussion. Thank you Dr. Koonin for joining!
Mike Bradley kicked off the show by highlighting the performance of a handful of commodity and equity prices since Dr. Koonin last appeared on COBT (4/19/22). The 10-year bond yield (~4.4%) surged last week, sending it back to previous Trump post-election highs. It’s consensus that the FED will cut interest rates by a quarter point at Wednesday’s FOMC Rate Decision meeting, but what’s not consensus and what bonds are trying to handicap, is the path forward for interest rates in 2025. On the broader equity market front, markets took a bit of a breather last week and are mixed/modestly lower this week given that investors are laser-focused on the FOMC Meeting, especially Chairman Powell’s Post Conference dialogue on future interest rate policy. On the crude oil market front, WTI rallied ~$4/bbl (to ~$71/bbl) last week but continues to trade in a very tight trading band (~$68-$71/bbl) given that fundamentals still seem to point to a 2025 global supply surplus. On the gas market front, although the news came out after our COBT recording, the DOE’s long-waited “Updated Final Analyses on LNG Exports” was released. The analysis stopp
Today we had a unique and fascinating opportunity to visit with Miguel Galuccio, Chairman and CEO of Vista Energy, at Vista’s offices in Neuquén, Argentina. Miguel is a highly accomplished energy entrepreneur and serves as an Independent Board Member at SLB and GridX in addition to his role at Vista. Prior to founding Vista, Miguel served as the Chairman and CEO of YPF from 2012 to 2016, in addition to several international positions at SLB, most recently serving as President of SLB Production Management. We were thrilled to hear Miguel’s valuable insights into Argentina’s energy potential and specifically into the growth we are seeing in the Vaca Muerta.
In our conversation, we explore Vista’s rapid growth and their technological and operational advancements, the benefits of Argentina’s bipartisan political support for energy development, and the transformative economic impact of Vaca Muerta in shifting the country’s energy trade balance from deficit to surplus. We discuss the critical role of free-market mechanisms in scaling production, leveraging lessons from U.S. shale, Vaca Muerta’s potential as a cornerstone of Argentina’s energy future, opportunities for collaboration between the US and Argentina in energy and economic development, and insights from Miguel’s experience at YPF, notably the importance of efficiency, innovation, and team integration. Miguel shares background on the “One Team” model integrating Vista, SLB and Nabors teams to optimize operations and performance, key infrastructure developments including the development of the Vaca Muerta Sur pipeline, Vista’s broader mission to serve Argentina and enhance lives, and strategies for reducing operational costs in Vaca Muerta without the scale of US shale operations. We also cover Vista’s disciplined financial management, the company’s commitment to being a long-term player, Vista’s intriguing and exciting nature-based solutions business (website linked here), the importance of industry collaboration in driving future growth and innovation, and much more.
For additional reading on Argentina, The Economist’s article entitled “Javier Milei: “My contempt for the state is infinite” is linked here.
Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that the 10-year bond yield (4.2%) is at its lowest level since Trump was elected. Both the CPI & PPI reports will be released this week and will go a long way in determining what the FED does next week at its FOMC Rate Decision Meeting. On the broader equity market front, markets continue gravitating to new all-time highs but caution could be warranted due to current and unforeseen global political turmoil. The month of December is typically a good month for the S&P 500 with average monthly performance of ~1.5-2.0% over the past five years. On the crude oil market front, WTI continues to trade in a very tight trading band (~$68-$71/bbl) even with news of additional Mideast turmoil (Assad’s fall in Syria) and rumors that China might pursue looser monetary policy in 2025. OPEC delayed their current production curtailments by another three months which was totally expected. He also noted that even with these OPEC curtailments in Q1, global oil supply will remain in surplus and oil prices are likely going to be capped unless Trump moves to sanction Iranian oil exports early in his Presidency. On the energy equity front, Energy was among the worst performing S&P sectors last week (down ~5%) as investors were putting the OPEC meeting in the rearview mirror and focusing on the continued global oil supply surplus. Investor sentiment currently favors natural gas over crude oil equities and that sentiment likely continues into early 2025. Chevron Corp. lowered their 2025 capex budget last week and this week ExxonMobil will be hosting their Annua
It was an honor today to welcome Dr. Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Dr. Grossi is a distinguished diplomat with an esteemed career spanning 40 years in nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament. He has served as the IAEA’s Director General since December 2019 and was re-appointed for a second four-year term beginning in December 2023. Prior to his current role, Dr. Grossi served as Argentina’s Ambassador to Austria. Other career highlights include Argentine Representative to the IAEA, President of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, Assistant Director General for Policy and Chief of the Cabinet at the IAEA, and Chief of Cabinet at the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. He began his career as Argentine Representative to NATO. We were delighted to visit with Dr. Grossi.
In our conversation, we discuss the IAEA’s critical role in nuclear safety, development, and nonproliferation amid global challenges, including efforts to prevent nuclear accidents in active conflict zones. Dr. Grossi discusses the agency’s unprecedented decision to establish a permanent presence of IAEA experts at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine to ensure safety and security, the agency’s ongoing communication with both Ukrainian and Russian leadership to mitigate risks during wartime, and the dedication of the IAEA staff who have volunteered for these high-risk missions. We cover the IAEA’s history, which was inspired by President Eisenhower’s “Atoms for Peace” initiative, the agency’s evolving mission in regulatory and industrial standardization, the increasing interest in nuclear energy as a demand-driven solution to global power needs, and how the IAEA is supporting countries through their Milestones Program to provide guidance for adopting nuclear energy. Additionally, we explore the growing role of private capital in nuclear projects and the IAEA’s efforts to engage with international financial institutions including the World Bank to create a more favorable investing environment for nuclear energy, geopolitical dynamics influencing the sector, and the IAEA’s collaboration with nuclear CEOs, vendors, and clients worldwide. It was a profound look at the challenges and opportunities shaping nuclear energy and we are deeply grateful to Dr. Grossi for sharing his time and insights.
Mike Bradley kicked off the show by highlighting that even though broader U.S. equity markets continue to post new highs, they’re still trying to decipher Trump’s current tariff “rhetoric” from future tariff “realism.” Trump surprised markets again this weekend by vowing to impose a 100% tariff on BRICS countries that don’t/won’t commit to be anchored to the U.S. dollar. He also noted that current global events (including South Korea’s President declaring Marshall Law on Tuesday & French lawmakers possibly seeking to hold a no-confidence vote to topple the French President on Wednesday) could spill over and potentially stall the runup in U.S. equities. On the crude oil market front, WTI has traded up ~$2/bbl this week (~$70/bbl) on news the U.S. is sanctioning several foreign entities tied to the Iranian crude oil tanker “shadow fleet.” OPEC delayed their virtual meeting to Dec 5th and consensus is betting OPEC will agree to delay an oil production increase by another three months. On the natural gas front, U.S. natural gas price plunged this week to ~$3/MMBtu due to a warmer 6-10-day weather outlook and a rebound in U.S. gas production (~104bcfpd). European natural gas prices continue to stay elevated mostly due to extremely high November gas storage withdrawals. The EU raised their February gas storage target levels to 50% (up from 45%) due to growing 2025 supply concerns. On the energy equity front, Energy is among the worst performing S&P sectors this past week (down ~1%) due to the strong U.S. dollar, modest OPEC Meeting uncertainty and Canadian/Mexican crude oil
Since we started COBT in 2020, we have gotten into the tradition of doing a Thanksgiving show each year. In our previous episodes, we have enjoyed showcasing and thanking the hardworking people working in energy who make Thanksgiving Day possible. Without them, the day simply isn’t possible and we extend our thanks to them all again today.
This year, we decided to mix it up a bit and thank another important group, America’s World War Two Veterans. Of the 16 million Americans who served in the war, by some estimates less than 60,000 remain today. They are sadly passing away at a rate of approximately 300 a day. The youngest of them are now in their late nineties. Clearly, the time to talk with them, learn from them, and thank them again is now.
Earlier this year, we met Tyler Boland, known as “the World War II Kid” (see his work here).Tyler is a 20-year-old college student on a mission to interview as many WWII veterans as possible. Starting his project as a freshman in high school, Tyler set out to meet and interview these veterans as a tribute to his great grandfathers who both fought in the war. Six plus years later, he has befriended over 300 of them, sponsored mini-reunions, absorbed their wisdom, and even taken them on special trips, including taking a group to the 80th anniversary of D-Day celebration this summer in Normandy. This young man is making a difference in the lives of these wonderful men. He has done all of this on his own. It’s a remarkable and wonderful thing.
With Tyler’s help, we came up with the idea of an excursion to the The National WWII Museum in New Orleans. The audacious thought was to offer any veterans that Tyler knew the chance to go to the museum. Tyler knew exactly who to ask and Milton Ripple (age 96), Frank Stellar (age 100), and Bill Balabanow (age 98) were ready and willing to go! He and the three veterans from the Philadelphia area traveled down on Sunday where we met at Commander’s Palace for a quintessential New Orleans meal on Sunday night and then had a great day at the museum on Monday. Special thanks to Murphy’s CEO Roger Jenkins for getting us into Commander’s Palace, and to Jeff Hildebrand for connecting us with the National WWII Museum. The staff at Commander’s Palace treated our veterans like the heroes they are. The team at The National WWII Museum wrapped the men in the kindness and respect they deserve, let us in early for a VIP tour of all 7 museum buildings, treated us to lunch in the American Sector cafe, and also let us use their private library for today’s podcast. It was a phenomenal experience to tag along as the men took a trip down their wartime memory lane.
Below you’ll see pictures of our veterans from their time in the service and then together at the museum. The quote from MacArthur is worth pausing on.
The conversation with Tyler, Milton, Frank and Bill was wonderful. The time with them overall was incredibly special. The veterans are in good health, can walk and get around well, are mentally sharp, and tremendously upbeat. My take is that you can’t live as long as they have, see as much as they have, endure as much as they have, and not be truly special human beings. As for Tyler, he makes you feel so good about America’s youth that he would do all this.
God bless Tyler Boland and the work he is doing, these men for all they have given us, and for all the men and women who fought to protect our freedom in World War Two.
Happy Thanksgiving to you all!
One final note – Milton, Frank and Bill, when you read and watch this, I’d like to just say one more time, THANK YOU!
Today we had the honor of hosting Pablo Vegas, President and CEO of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). Pablo was appointed as CEO by Governor Abbott in October 2022, after previously serving as Executive Vice President of NiSource and Group President of NiSource Utilities. His previous management roles included senior positions with both American Electric Power and IBM. Pablo also serves on the Global Advisory Board for the Harvard Business School and is a member of the Texas Advanced Nuclear Working Group. ERCOT manages the flow of electricity to over 27 million Texas customers and oversees one of the most unique power grids in the US. We were thrilled to hear Pablo’s unique insights on the latest power developments in Texas and across the US.
In our conversation, we explore ERCOT’s collaboration with international and domestic grid operators to share best practices for managing intermittent resources and ensuring resource adequacy, ERCOT’s unique operational advantages, and Texas’s projected electricity demand growth by 2030, which equates to adding Germany’s current electricity demand. We discuss the reliability risks associated with renewable energy integration, insights into the current state of battery storage capacity, and the need for Texas market design changes to better incentivize the building of more dispatchable power plants. Pablo shares details about the Texas Energy Fund’s $5 billion allocation aimed at incentivizing up to 10 gigawatts of dispatchable power, economic hurdles for coal plants as well as combined-cycle gas plants under EPA regulations requiring carbon capture by the end of 2031, opportunities for nuclear energy development, and the lack of clear market pricing signals in ERCOT compared to capacity market spikes in PJM and MISO. We touch on how the new administration might approach power policy, how current federal regulations hinder power sector growth despite incentives for broader economic expansion, and more. We ended by asking Pablo for his predictions for what Texas’s generation mix might look like in five years and for the future of ERCOT’s connectivity with other grids. We covered a great deal of territory and can’t thank Pablo enough for his insights into all these critical topics.
Mike Bradley kicked off the show by highlighting that markets remain in “digestion” mode as they continue to react to Trump’s Cabinet picks. Over the weekend, Trump nominated Scott Bessent for Secretary of Treasury and markets responded favorably (bond yields dropped) on Monday as many investors believe he’ll be more balanced on the tariff front. However, Trump surprised markets a day later by vowing that he’ll levy additional tariffs on China (10%) and new import tariffs (25%) on all Canadian & Mexican goods. On the crude oil market front, WTI traded sideways/slightly down over the past week (~$69/bbl) due to a potential ceasefire deal in the Middle East. He noted that the December 1st OPEC meeting will now be virtual. OPEC’s leadership will likely look to extend current production curtailments for another three months to get them through the seasonally weak Q1 period. On the natural gas front, U.S. natural gas price in recent weeks has spiked from ~$3.00/MMBtu to ~$3.40/MMBtu due to a colder 6-10-day weather outlook. The real gas story is in Europe where natural gas price in recent weeks has spiked to ~$15/MMBtu due to an early spell of cold weather, lower LNG shipments and extremely low wind generation. On the broader equity market front, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up just over 1.5% over the last week as they continue to digest Trump Cabinet picks and what policy priorities might be enacted on early in his Presidency. On the energy equity front, the Energy sector was one of the few S&P sectors down last week (~1.5%). He also noted a handful of Energy & Materials sector deals this past week and ended by discussing that the COP29 Conference in Baku c
Today we were honored to host Mayor Lori Blong of Midland. Lori is a proud Midland native and previously served on the Midland City Council and as Mayor Pro Tempore before being elected Mayor in 2022. In addition to her duties as Mayor, Lori is a Founder and Partner of Octane Energy. She began her career as an educator in the Permian Basin and has deep ties to the community. We were thrilled to hear her insights on the Midland energy sector and broader community.
In our discussion, Lori shares data on Midland’s demographics and consistent population growth, highlighting that the city’s largest age groups are 0-10 and 30-40 years old. We touch on the influx of workers and families from across the US and the world, growing demand for retail and lifestyle amenities, and recent commercial and national defense developments at the Midland Air and Space Port, including the development of a high-speed corridor for supersonic and hypersonic testing. Lori shares how Midland is addressing worker shortages through partnerships with local universities, the city’s pro-development attitude, her inspiration to run for Mayor, priorities in improving community education and healthcare, and navigating the complexities of political campaigning. We discuss Lori’s working partnerships with Congressman Pfluger and Senator Sparks to secure federal and state support, major infrastructure and transportation projects in Midland and the Permian Basin, and the critical support that the Permian Strategic Partnership (website linked here) and private investments have provided to bolster infrastructure and community services. We also cover Midland’s long-term water planning, the importance of reinvesting in Midland, the city’s high GDP relative to its population, opportunities to leverage excess natural gas for power generation, the city’s confidence in its economic resilience, and much more. We ended by asking Lori for her vision of Midland in ten years. As you will hear, Lori is incredibly passionate about helping her community and we greatly enjoyed the discussion.
Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that the key word to describe market action right now is "digestion" as Trump begins nominating his Cabinet picks and investors begin to ponder how they might affect future policy. On the crude oil market front, WTI has traded sideways to slightly lower (~$69/bbl) this past week due to a surge in the U.S. dollar which is creating a short-term headwind for dollar denominated commodities. WTI prompt spread has moved into contango, signaling a loosening oil market. OPEC recently lowered its 2025 oil growth assumptions (again) which likely forces them at their December OPEC meeting to delay unwinding current production curtailments until sometime in Q1. On the broader equity market front, the S&P 500 was down a couple percent as markets were oversold prior to the election, jumped by ~4-5% post-election, and are now pulling back as Trump's equity market euphoria looks to be fading. He noted that broader equity markets will be laser focused on NVIDIA’s results after the close on Wednesday, so expect pent-up market volatility as investors are hoping that Blackwell revenues are exceeding expectations and that the AI momentum trade is still intact. On the energy equity front, it was one of the few S&P sectors up last week (~1.5%) and energy investors seem to be very enthusiastic with Trump's picks for the Department of Interior (Doug Burgum) and the Department of Energy (Chris Wright). He ended by noting that a handful of SMR (nuclear equities) rallied 15-20% on expectations that the new Administration would be favorable to this technology. Jeff Tillery added his perspective and questions to the discussion.
We hope you enjoy the conversation with Lori as much as we did. She was fabulous! Thanks to you all!
Today we had the pleasure of hosting Michelle Manook, CEO of FutureCoal, for an insightful discussion on coal from a global perspective – an important yet often overlooked topic. Michelle joined FutureCoal in 2019 and previously held senior roles at Orica, Archer Energy, Brockman Mining, and Woodside. As CEO, she leads FutureCoal’s mission to support key players across the coal value chain and advocates for balanced and inclusive international energy policies that respect the sovereign rights of coal-producing and coal-consuming nations. We were delighted to visit with Michelle.
We covered a lot of ground in our conversation, beginning with an overview of FutureCoal, the significance of their rebrand from the “World Coal Association,” and Michelle’s path to the coal industry, driven by a commitment to the humanitarian aspects of energy access and poverty alleviation as well as a keen drive for a challenge. We discuss technological advancements in coal, including the improved efficiency and emissions control in modern coal plants compared to older facilities, coal’s multifaceted role beyond power generation, and the need for balanced energy policies that give coal fair access to technology investment and funding. We explore potential outcomes from COP 29 for coal, the need to expand the definition of abatement to include any emissions reduction efforts, and the impact of High-Efficiency Low-Emissions (HELE) technology and improved energy efficiency as significant contributors to emissions reductions. We cover investment trends in coal, global coal dynamics, Michelle’s views on coal’s importance for national security and international competitiveness, and the investment case for sustainable coal technologies. Michelle also emphasizes the needs and aspirations of developing nations for equitable energy access. It was a wide-ranging discussion and we can’t thank Michelle enough for sharing her time and insights with us.
As you’ll hear, Michelle references data from a few reports in our conversation. FutureCoal’s report entitled “Clean Coal Technology in ASEAN: Balancing Equity, Security & Sustainability” is linked here and FutureCoal’s report entitled “Addressing UN Sustainable Development Goals in the ASEAN Coal Value Chain” is linked here.
Mike Bradley opened the conversation by noting that many markets have rallied since Trump’s election as the 47th President of the United States. Since the election, the 10-year bond yield rose from ~4.25% to ~4.45% driven by concerns that Wednesday’s CPI report could print hotter than expected and cause the FED to head towards a temporary rate cut pause. Interest rates and the US dollar look to be moving higher on a belief that Trump’s trade policies (higher tariffs) and a push towards less regulations will lead to higher real growth and higher US deficits. On the crude oil market front, since the election, WTI has fallen roughly $4/bbl to ~$68/bbl due to optimism that Trump could quickly move towards peace negotiations in the Middle East & Ukraine. He noted that while Trump’s slogan of “Drill Baby Drill” proved to be a good campaign slogan, the reality is that US producers are laser focused on capital discipline and shareholder returns and that’s unlikely to change.
Mike further noted that some believe Trump could move to implement Iranian oil sanctions early in his term, which would be offset by ample OPEC spare capacity. On the broader equity market front, since the election the DJIA, S&P 500 & Nasdaq are all up ~4-5%, the Russell 2000 is up ~7% and Bitcoin is up ~30%. Broader equity markets are technical
Happy Veterans Day to all who served and Happy Remembrance Day for our British, Canadian, and Australian friends. Today (and every day), we thank you and your families for your service and sacrifice.
With the election behind us and the transition of a new administration on the horizon, we brought together three esteemed friends of the firm and previous COBT guests for a Special Edition of COBT. We wanted to brainstorm with them what happens next in energy policy-making.
We were honored to host Anne Bradbury, CEO of the American Exploration and Production Council (AXPC), Bill Flores, Vice Chairman of ERCOT, former Congressman, and Veriten Senior Advisor, and Maria Korsnick, CEO of the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI). Each of these leaders has been a strong advocate for energy in Washington and brings deep insight into the complexities of energy legislation. Arjun Murti, Brett Rampal and I were thrilled to join and hear their immediate reactions and perspectives on what the incoming administration could mean for the future of energy.
In our discussion, we explore the implications of the Trump Administration for energy policy, expecting broadly that the new administration will focus on energy reliability, affordability and infrastructure. We discuss potential changes to the Inflation Reduction Act to make it more technology-agnostic and more supportive of dispatchable energy sources, including nuclear and natural gas. There was a lot of speculation about “leaving the carrots but getting rid of the sticks” and also “the use of a scalpel and not a sledgehammer.” Bill shares insights on critical Congressional dynamics, how to handle any potential obstacles the current administration may put in place before leaving office, and the importance for energy policymakers to work on areas of agreement across the aisle to ensure truly durable energy policies. Anne emphasizes that in terms of environmental regulations, the US oil and gas industry is willing and able to show that they are the cleanest system globally already, and that they are ready to meet heightened regulatory standards, but that these standards need to be resilient and realistic to avoid constant swings with each administration. Maria highlights federal policy that NEI is supporting to incentivize initial first-of-a-kind builds as well as needed policy reforms to strengthen grid capacity and streamline permitting.
We go on to cover the potential influence of Elon Musk if he assumes a role in the new administration, the importance of ending the partisan divide in energy policy, the need to prioritize American energy dominance across both traditional and new energy technologies, the value of experienced career staff in DC to ensure effective policy implementation, and much more. Overall, we are feeling optimistic for American energy in the next administration as the change provides an opportunity to keep what’s good but change what’s not. There were many references in our discussion to “not throw the baby out with the bathwater.” We are immensely grateful to Anne, Bill and Maria for their friendship and for joining us. We hope you find the conversation as interesting and insightful as we did.
God bless our veterans, and our best to you all!
Today we had the honor of hosting Senator John Cornyn of Texas, who has served in the US Senate since 2002 and is now in his fourth term. Senator Cornyn has been a steadfast advocate for Texas interests and supports policies that promote responsible domestic traditional energy production while exploring new energy sources to strengthen US energy independence. Senator Cornyn has held several key leadership roles including Republican Whip and currently serves on the Senate Finance, Intelligence, and Judiciary Committees. Before joining the Senate, Senator Cornyn served as a district judge, a member of the Texas Supreme Court and Texas Attorney General. We were thrilled to connect with Senator Cornyn for an election, energy and geopolitical focused discussion one week away from the 2024 Presidential Election.
We begin by asking Senator Cornyn for his perspective on escalating international conflicts and global geopolitical tensions, including the Iran-Israel conflict, North Korea’s involvement in Ukraine, and threats from Russia and China. We discuss the importance of robust US intelligence and deterrence to maintain global stability, the need for proactive US leadership in foreign conflicts, and the reality that “our holiday from history is over.” Senator Cornyn outlines opportunities and challenges in the coming lame duck session, key legislative actions, and Congressional priorities including national defense funding, tax policy, and the federal budget, as well as key Senate races and the potential for Republicans to retake the Senate. We explore America’s energy potential, the strategic importance of US LNG to European allies, challenges with transmission and permitting for energy infrastructure, the evolution of US policy toward China, the possibility of permitting reform, and the merits of state versus federal power. We also touch on incentives for reshoring critical manufacturing to address supply chain vulnerabilities, national debt and budget priorities, and the critical importance of national unity despite political differences. It was a fantastic discussion, and we are very grateful to Senator Cornyn and his team for their continued efforts on behalf of the energy community.
Mike Bradley kicked off the discussion by highlighting that markets this week are increasingly focused on a handful of Big Tech Q3 earnings and next week’s Presidential election. On the bond market front, bond traders continue to be perplexed that the 10yr bond yield has spiked from 3.6% back to 4.3% over the last month, which is a higher level than the 10yr was trading prior to the 50-basis point cut at the September 18th FOMC Meeting. He noted that bond traders seem to be betting that Trump will win the Presidency and that his promise of Chinese Tariff increases and significant Federal regulatory cuts might lead to higher “real” growth and higher deficits. On the crude oil market front, WTI had fallen roughly $5/bbl this week on a brief de-escalation in Mideast tensions and concerns that Chinese economic stimulus plans would disappoint. On the broader equity market front, the S&P 500 continues to post new highs. Big Tech stocks seem to be retaking market leadership given that the market-weighted S&P 500 Index is again outperforming the equal-weighted S&P 500 Index. On the energy equity front, lower oil prices are leading many energy companies to take a more cautious approach on their Q3 calls which is continuing to weigh on the entire sector. Arjun Murti emphasized that long-term macroeconomic trends are more influential than election outcomes alone, and that a balanced “all-of-the-above” approach to support maximizing traditional resource production and exports as well as new energy technologies is crucial not only for the US but for developing nations seeking diversified energy for geopolitical and economic stability.
We hope you find today’s discussion as interesting and insightful as we di
Today we had the privilege of hosting Peter Lake, former Chairman of the Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUCT). Peter was appointed by Governor Greg Abbott to stabilize and strengthen the Texas electrical grid following Winter Storm Uri in 2021. He concurrently served as a Board Member of ERCOT and concluded his term with the PUCT in June 2023. Previously, Peter chaired the Texas Water Development Board. Since leaving public office, Peter has served as an independent strategic advisor and technical consultant through his firm, Cardinal Rose. We were thrilled to welcome Peter to our offices in Houston for a discussion of power systems broadly and his incredible experience tackling the Texas grid problems after the tragic events of February 2021.
In our conversation, Peter provides candid insights into the post Uri rebuilding experience and discusses how and why Governor Abbott reached out to him to take on this incredibly hard role. We discuss the challenge in regaining public trust following the crisis and the strategies required to rebuild confidence in ERCOT, his very productive partnership with interim ERCOT CEO Brad Jones, the decision-making process at PUCT and its impact on power systems, ERCOT’s unique governance structure and its relationship with PUCT, and the changes implemented after the 2021 storm. Peter shares his views on managing through a crisis, the importance of uniting stakeholders to facilitate efficient decision-making, and the rapid progress Peter and his team made with support from the Texas Legislature on projects that had previously been delayed. We explore the actions needed to address grid reliability, the challenges posed by Texas’s rapid power demand growth, the need to expand transmission and dispatchable energy resources, the critical balance between renewables and reliable backup power, the importance of market-oriented solutions, concerns with over-reliance on batteries, problems brewing now in other US grids, and the federal government’s role in system reliability. Peter also touches on the close relationship between water management and energy, the potential for adopting incentive models to improve power reliability, and much more. We walked away with a deeper appreciation for the efforts made by Peter and the teams at PUCT and ERCOT in 2021 to stabilize the grid and are grateful to Peter for sharing his unique insights. As Texans, we are all personally thankful to Peter and everyone else who stepped in to an unbelievably hard situation after the storm to improve the grid in Texas.
Mike Bradley kicked off the discussion by highlighting that this week looks to be starting out as a pretty slow and less volatile trading week for most markets. On the bond market front, over the last 4-5 weeks the 10yr bond yield has increased from ~3.6% up to ~4.2% due to a belief that the FED won’t raise interest rates in 2024 as much as was previously expected. On the crude oil market front, WTI was up a couple dollars per barrel this week on talks of a further increase in Chinese stimulus. On the broader equity market front, the S&P 500 was down marginally this week after a significant runup over the past three months. Broader markets could trade sideways over the next couple of weeks as investors further digest the unexpected runup in interest rates, the beginning of Q3 earnings and the outcome of the U.S. Presidential election. On the energy equity front, a couple of oil service companies issued disappointing outlooks last week which weighed on the service industry. He also noted that this week’s Q3 reporting would be peppered with a handful of electric utilities, mining companies, natural gas E&Ps and oil service companies. Jeff Tillery discussed the growing excitement in nuclear with major recent developments (Three Mile Island, tech offtake contracts, and tech company investments) but cautioned to stay mindful of potential challenges and realisti
Today we were delighted to welcome Dr. Carolyn Kissane, Associate Dean of Graduate Programs and Global Affairs at NYU’s Center for Global Affairs. Dr. Kissane is a Lifetime Member of the Council on Foreign Relations, a Senior Fellow at the George H.W. Bush Foundation for US-China Relations, Co-Host of “The Clean Energy Revolution” Podcast, and Founding Director of NYU’s Energy, Climate Justice, and Sustainability Lab. Carolyn earned her Ph.D. in Comparative Education and Political Science from Columbia University and has been with NYU since 2004. Her research focuses on energy, sustainability innovation and policy, and cybersecurity. We were thrilled to connect with Carolyn for an insightful discussion on energy and global affairs.
In our conversation, Carolyn provides background on NYU’s energy studies, its interdisciplinary approach, and the growing importance of understanding the connection between energy systems, economic security, and human security. Carolyn shares observations on the increasing focus on climate and energy security at the Council on Foreign Relations, especially with regards to trade and tariffs. We explore the changing dynamics of oil markets, the ineffectiveness of sanctions, the increase of rule-breaking in international trade, shifting student perceptions of energy, global energy dynamics and the U.S.’s competitive advantage due to its abundance of natural gas resources. We touch on Carolyn’s experiences in Kazakhstan, the severity of the energy crisis in Europe and Germany’s economic struggles, the difficulty of reversing these challenges due to regulatory and high energy costs, how bureaucratic challenges and regulatory barriers are slowing down development in Europe and the US, Javier Milei’s political appeal, US energy competitiveness, and much more. We ended by asking Carolyn for her vision of climate policy leadership ten years from now. It was a broad-based discussion and we’re thankful to Carolyn for sharing her time and unique insights.
Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting broader equity market volatility, the beginning of Q3 Energy sector reporting, and observations regarding this week’s plunge in crude oil price. On the broader equity market front, ASML Holding’s stock priced plunged due to their semiconductor orders noticeably missing estimates which in turn pressured the “hot” Technology sector lower. Liberty Energy and SLB will be the first two oil service companies reporting Q3 results this week with investors focused on their NAM oil service activity & pricing outlook and international revenue guidance. On the crude oil front, WTI price plunged ~$5/bbl (~$70/bbl) this week due to three interrelated issues: Mideast supply concerns, a reduction in global oil demand estimates, and Brent oil traders recently repositioning themselves from a “net short” to a “net long” managed money futures trading position. Jeff Tillery added to Mike’s comments and emphasized that the narrow range analysts are predicting for oil prices in 2025 is unlikely to be accurate and to consider the potential factors that could drive prices either higher or lower than consensus.
We greatly enjoyed our global discussion with Carolyn today and hope you find it as interesting as we did. Our best to you all!
Today we had the opportunity to visit with Dr. David Spence, Chair in Natural Resources Law at the University of Texas and Author of “Climate of Contempt: How to Rescue the U.S. Energy Transition from Voter Partisanship.” Dr. Spence joined the University of Texas faculty in 1997 and his research focuses on the law and politics of energy regulation. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from Duke University and serves as a professor of Business, Government & Society at the McCombs School of Business in addition to teaching at Texas Law. “Climate of Contempt” was recently published in August and addresses the politics and forces that have affected energy policy. We were thrilled to thrilled to explore the book’s key themes and arguments with David.
In our conversation, we discuss the various factors David has researched contributing to ineffective policymaking, the value of engaging in open and honest discussions across ideological lines, how social media and advocacy media influence policy understanding, the destructive effects of today’s media landscape on comprehending complex issues, and issues with social media echo chambers. David shares some of the feedback he’s received since publishing “Climate of Contempt,” the reluctance of political leaders to address the failings of their own party members, the role of natural gas in energy policy, and the benefits of being technologically agnostic. We touch on shifts in attitudes toward nuclear energy, the need for more discussions around risks and trade-offs with energy technology, growing global energy demand, the potential for technological innovation in energy, and how differences in energy and environmental policy influence where industries decide to locate their operations. We also cover the challenges of regulating energy markets, the counterproductive demonization of oil and gas, potential ways to encourage cross-sector collaboration between academia, government and the commercial sector, and more. For additional resources related to “Climate of Contempt,” please visit www.climateofcontempt.com. We greatly enjoyed the discussion with David and appreciate him sharing his time and insights with us.
Mike Bradley opened the discussion by highlighting two areas, those being the recent surge in both U.S. bond yields as well as global crude oil prices. On the bond yield front, he discussed that despite the FED’s 50-basis point interest rate cut three weeks ago, the 10-year U.S. bond yield has surged from ~3.65% to ~4.00% mostly due to hotter-than-expected recent economic data. He flagged that several important economic reports will be released this week (CPI, PPI & Consumer Sentiment) and that these reports could create some added bond and equity market volatility. Regarding crude oil, in the past week WTI price surged to over $77/bbl (~$9/bbl gain) due to concerns of whether Israel would attack Iranian nuclear sites and/or crude oil export terminals/refineries. Last week’s news of a Chinese stimulus program also contributed to the surge in global oil prices, but one of the key reasons for the recent surge in oil price is a “short squeeze” which is an outgrowth of an extremely bearish trader positioning in crude oil futures (especially Brent). He also noted that on Tuesday, WTI price slid by over $3/bbl (~$74/bbl), as well as the price of several base metal commodities, on news that the Chinese government was holding back on additional economic stimulus spending. Jeff Tillery pointed out that while a stronger underlying economy is good for long-term energy demand, short-term price boosts from geopolitical turmoil may have a negative impact on stocks over time.
Thank you again to David for joining and thanks to you all for your support and friendship!
Today we were delighted to host Toni Stojcevski, General Manager of Project Sales & Development at Wärtsilä Marine alongside David Millar, Principal of Markets, Legislative, and Regulatory Policy at Wärtsilä Energy. For those of you who aren’t familiar with Wärtsilä, the company is a famous Finnish provider of marine engines and also a large player in onshore power. Toni has served at Wärtsilä for over 20 years ago and specializes in marine engineering and business development, including medium speed combustion engines and alternative fuels. David is an economist who advocates for evidence-based energy policies that prioritize cost-effectiveness and reliability. He holds a Master of Environmental Management from Duke University and previously served as Managing Director of Resource Planning and Procurement Services at Ascend Analytics. We were delighted to connect with David and Toni and talk about Wärtsilä’s unique angles on the world.
In our conversation, we discuss the critical role of shipping in the global economy and Wärtsilä’s efforts to develop solutions that meet emissions targets, including the creation of engines that can use traditional fuels but also natural gas, methanol, ammonia, and hydrogen. Toni shares his insights on the evolution of fuel use in shipping, highlighting the global fleet’s historical reliance on bunker fuel and how that has changed in recent years. Toni emphasizes the complexities and costs associated with transitioning to alternative fuels, as well as the technological challenges with new fuels, notably in fuel supply infrastructure, especially for hydrogen and ammonia. We explore the relative differences in different fuel prices and the impact of larger tank sizes on shipping costs and cargo capacity, whether existing fuels can become more efficient, and examine potential future shipping technologies such as marine batteries and micronuclear power. David provides background on Wärtsilä’s power solutions including gas engines for peaking and balancing generation, the intricacies of using hydrogen as a long-duration storage medium and the infrastructure needed, as well as the cost of generating electricity with Wärtsilä’s engines and how it compares to other generation methods. We also cover the role of modular and efficient energy technologies in reducing costs and risks for utilities and power producers. We circle back with Toni towards the end of the discussion to hit on Wärtsilä’s development of carbon capture technology for vessels unable to switch to new fuels and cover the size and growth of the global merchant shipping fleet. We conclude by asking both David and Toni what they think the shipping and power energy mix might look like in ten years.
For our COBT history buffs, we previously had the opportunity to host Karl Meeusen, Director of Markets, Legislative and Regulatory Policy at Wärtsilä (episode linked here).
Mike Bradley opened the discussion by highlighting three key topics: the East & Gulf Coast dockworkers strike, escalating conflict in the Middle East, and the sharp decline in U.S. natural gas storage surplus. On the dockworkers strike, he noted it was the first one on the East Coast since 1977, with these ports handling half of all U.S. container shipments. Retailers are under pressure as investors assess potential supply chain disruptions during the holiday season and the US Presidential election ramifications of an extended strike. Regarding crude oil, WTI prices rose $3/bbl to $71/bbl due to increasing Middle East tensions following Iran’s missile strike on Israel. Despite this, oil prices have been trading sideways, even with bearish Brent crude setups and news of a large Chinese stimulus plan. The upcoming OPEC Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting on October 2nd could bring mor
Many of you have likely noticed, as we have, some of the news coming out of Delaware about certain rulings, the debate around those rulings, and the subsequent debate around actions taken by the legislature to clarify Delaware law. As we’ve read about these developments, we were intrigued and turned to the team at Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz (WLRK) for their thoughts on these matters. We were extremely pleased to have Ryan McLeod, Partner, and Dan Neff, Partner and Member of the Executive Committee, join us for a far-ranging and intriguing discussion on these issues.
Ryan joined WLRK in 2013 and specializes in representing corporations and directors in litigation involving mergers and acquisitions, proxy contests, corporate governance disputes, and class and derivative actions involving allegations of breach and fiduciary duty. He also serves as a Lecturer in Law at Columbia and has extensive experience litigating corporate matters in the Delaware Court of Chancery and the Delaware Supreme Court. Dan has over four decades of experience advising major companies in high-profile transactions and served as WLRK’s Co-Chairman for 20 years through October 2023. He specializes in mergers and acquisitions, corporate governance, and securities law and has represented clients in a broad range of industries including energy, technology and telecom, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, manufacturing/industrials, retail/consumer products, gaming, and more.
In our conversation, Ryan first provides perspective on Delaware’s importance to corporate law and the large percentage of companies that are incorporated there. Ryan walks us through three specific legal rulings that prompted amendments in Delaware including the Twitter stockholder litigation, the Activision merger case, and a case involving contractual governance and shareholder veto rights. We discuss the significant and unique amount of public debate surrounding these amendments, the practical impact of Delaware rulings on corporate governance, particularly in activist settlements and private equity deals, and the implications for boards and corporate lawyers. We also touch on whether these developments might lead boards to become more cautious in decision-making, the historical context of Delaware appraisal cases, and changing complexities around CEO compensation. We explore the Caremark Doctrine’s increasing relevance in corporate governance, the complexity of preparing board minutes to show transparency and thoroughness without over-disclosing, and emerging corporate governance risks. Ryan and Dan also share their insights on what sets Delaware law apart from other states, how companies manage external pressures from activism, the future of corporate governance, and much more. Thank you, Ryan and Dan, for sharing your insights and expertise with us all! We learned a tremendous amount.
Mike Bradley kicked us off with a few updates. He noted that the FED’s 50-basis point rate cut was initially received well, but since then, most markets have traded sideways. On the bond market front, the 10-year U.S. bond yield actually increased as the rate cut was mostly expected. He noted consensus around additional rate cuts in 2024 and 2025. He also noted that the 2yr/10yr bond yield spread widened to ~20-basis points after being inverted for the past two-plus years. On crude oil, WTI price has traded sideways this week (~$71/bbl) and Mike discussed several positive developments which could temporarily be supporting crude oil prices including a Chinese stimulus program, continued historic “net short” length in Brent futures and growing Mideast conflict. OPEC published its annual World Oil Outlook this week (linked here) and again raised its global oil demand estimates (~113mmbpd for 2030 & ~120mmbpd for 2050) which is well above the view of many others. He then flagged that this week is Climate Week in N
Today we were delighted to welcome back our good friend Roger Pielke Jr. for an engaging discussion on the evolving climate policy and energy landscape. Roger is the author of “The Honest Broker” on Substack which reaches 30,000+ subscribers across 153 countries. He is a Nonresident Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute where he focuses on science and technology policy, the politicization of science, government science advice, and energy and climate. Since 2001, Roger has served as a professor in the Environmental Studies department at the University of Colorado Boulder and will retire from academia at the end of 2024. We last hosted Roger on COBT on September 29, 2023 (episode linked here) and were excited to get him back to hear his latest insights on how the world has changed in the past year, especially in the climate community.
Roger joined us from Tokyo, where he is speaking at a Symposium hosted by the University of Tokyo on Japanese energy strategy and climate policies. In our conversation, we discuss how 2023 so far has been one of the most inaccurate in seasonal hurricane forecasting history with fewer named storms than predicted, the history of hurricane forecasting, and the groups and organizations responsible for hurricane season predictions. Roger shares his perspectives on the complexity of climate modeling and its limitations, human impact on climate and the importance of focusing on risk management rather than debating the future, and Japan’s energy landscape and how it’s a serious national security issue for the country. We explore the debate within the climate science community about the accuracy and relevance of current climate scenarios, the slower pace of climate modeling with updates every 10-20 years, the importance of understanding historical climate variability to better prepare for the future, and critical population assumptions in climate models. We touch on the need for improved communication in climate science and energy policy, future trends for climate science, Roger’s diverse audience, and much more. It was a fascinating discussion and we greatly appreciate Roger helping us understand this complex field better.
Mike Bradley opened the conversation by highlighting that most markets so far this week (bonds, commodities, currencies & equities) were focused on Wednesday’s FOMC Rate Decision Meeting (1pm CST). On the bond market front, the 10-year U.S. bond yield was unchanged this week (~3.65%). He noted that odds last week had favored a 25-basis point interest rate cut but that consensus had shifted this week to a 50-basis point cut. He further noted (excluding 2001 & 2007 recessions) that the S&P 500 has typically rallied a little over 10% in the 6-months following the beginning of interest rate cuts. On the crude oil front, WTI surged back above $71/bbl after recently bouncing off a strong technical trading support level of $65/bbl. Mike shared a chart that exhibited Brent Oil Managed Money Net Long Contracts vs Brent Oil Price and noted that this was the first time, in the last 10-15 years, that Managed Money was actually “net short” Brent oil future contracts. This signifies that oil traders are extremely bearish Brent oil futures for what they see as a slowing global economy, surging non-OPEC oil production growth and oversupplied global oil S/D in early 2025. He further noted that this “net short” position was larger than it was in April 2020 (Brent price ~$20/bbl) which also seems to signal that oil traders today aren’t fearful that OPEC can or will curtail additional barrels (like in previous go-arounds) to balance global crude oil markets. Brett Rampal highlighted this week’s announcement of the NRC’s issuance of a construction permit for the Natura Resources Molden Salt Reactor (Natura MSR-1) at Abilene Christian University, marking the first liquid salt fueled reactor licensed by
Today we had the pleasure of hosting the team from Cornerstone Government Affairs for an engaging discussion on energy policy and the upcoming US Presidential Election with Jack Belcher, Principal, John Sandell, Principal, and Sarah Venuto, Principal and Counsel. Cornerstone is an independent bipartisan consulting firm specializing in federal and state government relations, public affairs, political and grant consulting, and business advisory services. Jack, John and Sarah are seasoned experts in navigating the complexities of Washington DC. Jack has over 30 years of experience in energy and energy policy and previously held roles as Manager of Regulatory Affairs and Policy at Shell and Staff Director for the US House Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources. John is an expert in tax policy and formerly served the members of the US House Committee on Ways and Means. Sarah previously served as Director of the Office of External Affairs at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Senior Advisor and Chief Counsel to Senator Joe Manchin, and Democratic Staff Director for the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. We were thrilled to connect with the Cornerstone team to explore this timely and important topic.
Our conversation centered on a report Cornerstone published entitled “A Guide to Forecasting Energy Policy In The Next White House: Trump V. Harris” (linked here). Jack first provides background on Cornerstone’s history and growth into the largest independent government relations firm in DC. We touch on the implications of the Chevron Deference case on regulatory agencies, its significance for future energy policy and regulation, and how it will impact Congress and the need for additional technical expertise there. We cover the complexities of Presidential Administration changes and challenges of transitioning political appointments, the future of the Inflation Reduction Act under different administrations, and efforts to streamline permitting and infrastructure development. Jack, John and Sarah offer their insights on how a Trump or Harris administration might approach energy policy and rising energy prices for businesses and consumers. We discuss areas of bipartisan support including nuclear energy, tariffs, alternative fuels, and competition with China, how the next administration might balance state-level initiatives with national policy, the upcoming 2025 Tax Debate led by the Ways and Means Committee, and much more. It was an insightful discussion and we want to thank Jack, John and Sarah for sharing their perspectives and time with us on a busy day in DC.
Mike Bradley opened the conversation by highlighting that broader equity markets were down Tuesday driven by JPMorgan Chase’s cautious comments. In the bond market, the 10-year U.S. bond yield traded at ~3.65, down 20-30bps in recent weeks. The U.S. 2yr/10yr yield bond spread flipped back to positive after two years of inversion, this type of flip after a lengthy period of backwardation tends to precede recessions. He noted the importance of this week’s economic reports with August CPI & PPI and Initial Jobless Claims reporting over the next couple of days. On crude oil, he also shared a chart of the WTI crude oil curve and noted that the curve structure had flattened out through 2035, primarily due to concerns over global/China oil demand after being in steep backwardation over the prior 3mo, 6mo & 12mo periods. He concluded by mentioning that crude oil prices were technically oversold, with traders remaining bearish but waiting for significant changes in global oil demand to unwind net short bets.
Jeff Tillery built on Mike’s comments and noted the demand concerns and OPEC’s spare capacity reducing upside optionality for long-term investors. Brett Rampal highlighted a significant
We are thrilled to share this COBT episode recorded live from Plant Vogtle featuring John Williams, Senior Vice President of Technical Services and External Affairs at Southern Nuclear, John Kotek, Senior Vice President of Policy Development and Public Affairs at the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI), and Bill Flores, Vice Chairman of ERCOT and Veriten Senior Advisor. Brett Rampal and I had the pleasure of traveling to Waynesboro, GA for an exciting tour of Vogtle to see the completed units before sitting down with John Williams, John Kotek and Bill Flores for their perspectives on Vogtle and the broader nuclear energy landscape in the US and globally.
Vogtle is the largest generator of clean energy in the US and is jointly owned by Georgia Power, Oglethorpe Power Corporation, the Municipal Electric Authority of Georgia and Dalton Utilities. The plant was named after Alvin Vogtle, a past Chairman, President and CEO of Southern Company and World War II veteran. The film “The Great Escape” was based in part on Mr. Vogtle’s courageous wartime experiences (additional history linked here). In our conversation, John Williams first shares key background on Units 3 and 4 and how they’ve improved upon Units 1 and 2 in terms of technological advancements and safety features. We discuss the massive project of constructing Units 3 and 4, which involved a workforce of over 11,000 on-site employees, the economic benefits of nuclear facilities, the costs associated with building and operating nuclear plants, the US and global outlook for constructing additional AP1000 units, and the impact of nuclear energy development in the US, as well as its broader implications for global energy security. We touch on the obstacles faced during the construction of Vogtle 3 and 4 including regulatory challenges, the Fukushima incident in Japan, the bankruptcy of Westinghouse in 2017, and the impact of COVID-19 in 2020. In building the new units, Southern Company also faced the difficulty of finding an experienced workforce and re-creating a nuclear supply chain with Units 3 and 4 being the first new build nuclear plants in the US in 30 years. The scale of the project and site really struck us and John Williams put that into perspective when he pointed out that the concrete used for the expansion could lay a sidewalk from Waynesboro to Seattle and back. We also cover the safety and security of the facility, concerns over losing expertise as nuclear workers move to other industries with no other nuclear plants currently being built in the US, nuclear waste management, the growing appeal of nuclear energy careers to students, and much more. We were highly impressed with the entire experience and are excited to share our findings with you.
Mike Bradley wasn’t able to join the Vogtle field trip but passed along his market observations. He noted that markets (bonds, commodities and equities) all traded lower on Tuesday. From a broader equity market standpoint, the S&P 500 (-2.2%) and Nasdaq (-3.2%) were both pressured lower on Tuesday due to a substantial pullback in the S&P Technology sector (-4.4%) and shares of NVIDIA (-9.5%). Additional pressure could befall the S&P 500 given that September is historically the “worst” performing month for the S&P 500 by far, with the average September decline (over the last five years) being just over 4%. From a crude oil standpoint, WTI price traded down ~$3.25/bbl (closing at ~$70.25/bbl) on news that Libya was looking to restart ~0.5mmbpd of crude oil exports that had been temporarily curtailed. Goldman Sachs downgraded its long-held bullish copper call (mostly due to signs of slowing Chinese copper demand), which is also one of the main culprits that has been hanging over crude oil markets slowing global oil demand concerns. Given that this week’s COBT focus was on Vogtle, he rounded
We were honored this week to welcome Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison and John Rutherford for this Special Edition COBT. Senator Hutchison is a Founding Member of the KBH Energy Center at the University of Texas and has had a distinguished career in both the public and private sectors, including serving as the US Ambassador to NATO. We previously had the pleasure of hosting Senator Hutchison on COBT in November 2023 (episode linked here). John is an expert energy and finance executive and serves on the KBH Energy Center Executive Council in addition to board positions with Enterprise Products Partners and TD Williamson. Recently, Governor Abbott appointed John to the Teacher Retirement System of Texas Board of Trustees. We were excited to speak with Senator Hutchison and John about the KBH Energy Center’s upcoming Symposium in September and also mix in some observations about the current world.
This year’s KBH Energy Center Symposium theme is “Energizing Tomorrow – Tackling Today’s Energy Challenges while Preparing for the Future.” The event will take place on Friday, September 13 in Austin. In our conversation, Senator Hutchison and John touch on the Symposium’s history and the KBH Energy Center’s unique structure, collaborating with the business, law, engineering, and soon geosciences schools at the University of Texas. We discuss the Symposium’s agenda (linked here) with panels focused on the evolution of LNG, emerging energy trends, technology, AI, energy storage, and more. As you’ll hear, the Symposium is nearing capacity but there is still room to attend. Registration details can be found linked here. While discussing the history of the KBH Energy Center as well as the agenda for the Symposium, we also found time to discuss Senator Hutchison’s experience as the Ambassador to NATO, how critical energy is to the world economy, and some of her thoughts on the war in Ukraine. As you will hear, her direct experience with Putin informs all her judgements. We are excited for what promises to be a fantastic Symposium and greatly appreciate Senator Hutchison and John for joining us.
We hope you enjoy the discussion and that you’ll consider attending the Symposium. We also hope you have a great Labor Day weekend and enjoy this last weekend of summer. Our best to you all!
Today we were delighted to welcome our good friend Bill Von Gonten, Founder and CEO of W.D. Von Gonten Engineering (WDVGE). Bill is a renowned oil and gas expert and entrepreneur. He founded W.D. Von Gonten & Co. in 1995, pioneering the volumetric assessment of US gas shales. In 2013, Bill established W.D. Von Gonten Laboratories, a core testing facility specializing in unconventional resources, data science and frac modeling. In 2022, these entities were combined to form WDVGE, which later partnered with National Energy Services Reunited Corporation to expand WDVGE’s services to the Middle East and North Africa. Today, WDVGE operates in nearly 15 countries and has experience in every oil and gas basin worldwide. We were thrilled to host Bill for a discussion focused on the Vaca Muerta shale play and Argentina’s broader energy landscape.
In our discussion, Bill provides an overview of the Vaca Muerta, sharing his history and involvement with development efforts in the region. We discuss the unique characteristics of the shale play, the economic and logistical challenges of developing the Vaca Muerta, and comparative data that highlights its potential to surpass the Eagle Ford with its size, pressure and reservoir quality. Bill offers his perspective on geopolitical and economic considerations in Argentina, the future potential of the Vaca Muerta, including increased production and export capabilities, and its potential impact on the global oil and gas market through LNG and oil exports. We discuss people resources and industry infrastructure in Argentina, financial models for development, Argentina’s pro-oil and gas stance, the development of oil and gas infrastructure by midstream companies, economic opportunities for Argentina, other global opportunities for unconventional oil and gas development along with their challenges, and much more. Bill’s presentation slides from the discussion are linked here. It was a fascinating conversation and we sincerely thank Bill for sharing his time and insights with us today.
You may recall we had an episode of COBT focused on President Javier Milei’s election and the changing politics of Argentina. The discussion featured Fernando Oris de Roa, Former Ambassador of Argentina to the United States and is linked here.
Mike Bradley opened the conversation by highlighting that Fed Chairman Powell indicated last Friday “the time had come for policy to adjust” and “his confidence had grown that inflation was on a sustainable path back to two percent.” That interest rate policy pivot gave the green light for the FED to begin cutting interest rates at their mid-September FOMC meeting. On the broader equity market front, Mike shared investors are totally focused on NVIDIA’s quarterly results (after the close on Wednesday) and that consensus is positioned for another beat and raise. He noted that the bar is high, and if they fail to clear it, AI & Tech stocks could take a temporary breather and the Russell 2000 and other S&P sectors could take an equity leadership role. On the energy equity front, ExxonMobil released its Global Outlook to 2050 this week (linked here). He noted a few key takeaways from the report including oil & natural gas will make up >50% of the world’s energy mix in 2050 and a plateau in oil demand beyond 2030, remaining above 100mmbpd through 2050. He ended by highlighting Argentinian debt and equity performance since Javier Milei was elected President and ended with some Vaca Muerta shale stats (current and future potential). Todd Scruggs flagged a WSJ article reporting on the planned restart of the decommissioned P
We are thrilled to bring you this Special Edition COBT, featuring an exciting preview of the upcoming Houston Energy and Climate Startup Week taking place from September 9th – 13th. We had the pleasure of visiting with the event’s key organizers including Jane Stricker, Senior VP Energy Transition and Executive Director of the Houston Energy Transition Initiative (HETI), Brad Burke, Executive Director of the Rice Alliance for Technology and Entrepreneurship, Dale Winger, Managing Director of Halliburton Labs, and Timmeko Moore Love, Houston General Manager and Senior Vice President of Greentown Labs. Each of these leaders has played a pivotal role in fostering Houston’s energy and technology community and we were delighted to have them join us.
Houston Energy and Climate Startup Week will bring together leading venture capital investors, industry leaders, and startups in the energy and climate sectors to showcase innovative companies and technologies that are shaping the future of energy. In our conversation, the group provides an overview of the event and the key players involved, the vision behind the event and collaboration among various organizations in fostering technological advancements, a detailed breakdown of the week’s activities including a block party, industry leadership gatherings, investor speed networking with the Rice Alliance, Halliburton Labs Finalist Pitch Day, and the Greentown Labs Climate Impact Awards Gala to note a few. As you will hear, multiple organizations are planning private gatherings around the week’s events. We also hear from each organization on their latest developments and discuss Houston’s energy and climate tech ecosystem broadly. A detailed schedule and registration details for the Houston Energy and Climate Week is linked here.
A special thanks to Jane, Brad, Dale and Timmeko for joining. We hope to see you all in Houston in a few weeks!
Today we had the pleasure of hosting Samantha Dart, Head of Global Natural Gas Research at Goldman Sachs. Samantha first joined Goldman Sachs in 2006 as an energy strategist and returned to the firm in 2018. Between her tenures at Goldman Sachs, she served as Global Head of Gas and Power Research at Noble Group and as Head of Gas & Power Research at Mercuria Energy America. Samantha specializes in global natural gas fundamentals research and marketing and holds a PhD in Economics from the University of Chicago. We were thrilled to hear Samantha’s unique insights on the latest developments in the US and European natural gas and LNG markets.
In our conversation, Samantha shares her perspective on how she sees global gas markets evolving, the potential risks and opportunities for US natural gas producers given the expected increase in global LNG capacity, and an expected significant LNG capacity jump beginning in 2026. We explore the future price of US natural gas in 2030, how power demand from LNG expansion, data centers, and other needs will grow demand, how production growth might change locations and of course influence prices, as well as what risks she sees to an otherwise relatively stable $4 to $5 mmbtu long-term outlook. We discuss the potential price impacts of increased production and capacity, how bottlenecks could drive prices up, the role that Asia and Europe will play in absorbing the increased LNG supply, and current and near-term dynamics in the global gas market including Europe’s role in gas demand and the intricacies surrounding Russian gas. Samantha emphasizes the importance of sustained low prices to make gas a stronger part of global infrastructure growth, European industrial demand and the interaction between gas and coal prices, the future of the LNG market, and global acceptance and use of natural gas. We had a hard time ending the discussion and wrapped by asking Samantha for her views on natural gas in the mid-2030s. It was great fun to discuss the global gas world with a fellow gas enthusiast. Thanks to Samantha for joining!
Mike Bradley kicked off today’s discussion by highlighting that this will be an important economic reporting week with both the FOMC Meeting Minutes and the Payroll Revisions (~300-400k downward revisions expected) reports being released on Wednesday. He also noted that the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium will be held on Friday and will be watched closely to see whether Chairman Powell continues with a dovish tone and signals whether a September interest rate cut is still likely. On the crude oil front, WTI price this week has traded down to ~$74/bbl due to lessening concern with an Iranian/Israeli “war premium” and rising concern with Chinese 2H’24 oil growth estimates being revised lower. On the natural gas front, he flagged a handful of key stats, including U.S. & European spot gas prices, U.S. & European gas storage surpluses, and Lower-48 gas production that continues to be stuck in the 101-102bcfd range. He noted ~2bcfd of gas production curtailment announcements from E&P’s Q2 calls but clarified that these gas curtailments aren’t completely evident yet due to continued efficiencies and could become more evident in coming months. Todd Scruggs shared his thoughts on a recent McKinsey report (linked here) that showed the significant scale of net-zero targets (including a scenario that envisions deploying one billion EVs and 35 terawatts of low-emission power generation by 2050), reinforcing that natural gas will remain a critical bridge fuel for a long time ahead.
Thanks again to Samantha for sharing her time and perspectives with us today. She was fabulous. And as usual, thanks much to you all!
Today we were thrilled to welcome back Erik Milito, President of the National Ocean Industries Association (NOIA). Erik has served as President of NOIA since 2019 following 17 years in several leadership roles at the American Petroleum Institute and prior experience as an attorney in the Solicitor’s Office of the US Department of the Interior. Erik served on active duty in the US Army as a Judge Advocate from 1995 to 2000 and continued his service in the US Army Reserve from 2000 to 2004. NOIA’s mission is to advance and promote the interests of the offshore oil, gas, wind and ocean minerals industries. We last hosted Erik on COBT in April 2021 (episode linked here) and were excited to reconnect for an update on offshore activity.
In the discussion, Erik provides an overview of the NOIA’s role to promote favorable policies related to offshore leasing, permitting, and regulation covering all flavors of energy including oil and gas, wind, carbon capture and storage and minerals. We start the conversation with Erik reminding us of the importance of the Gulf of Mexico as a booming region for the country and then dig into the challenges of offshore wind as an emerging sector. We cover the fascinating contrast of lease sales in the current administration compared to historical numbers. As the episode title mentions, this will be the first year since 1958 without a single federal offshore lease sale. We touch on advances in technology as current operations explore deeper depths / higher pressures in recent years, and we dig into how Erik sees the offshore wind industry developing from the services standpoint over the next couple of years. We also cover the complex issues around insurance and decommissioning platforms. We move on to discuss the positive relationship with the fishing industry and the significant role that the coastal state governments play in the world of the NOIA. Erik shares his perspective on Washington DC, the current climate given the election, and his sense of the public’s mood and attitude towards the various sources of energy that the NOIA is involved in. We wrap up the discussion by getting Erik’s thoughts on the progress of carbon capture over the last few years and the slower pace of offshore versus onshore CO2 projects and he urges that more progress would be possible with the cooperation of the government around permitting and regulatory support. We end the discussion with the areas that Erik is most optimistic about for the NOIA’s membership which includes opportunities in the Gulf of Mexico.
It was a fantastic conversation. Thanks to Erik for joining us!
Mike Bradley opened the conversation by highlighting that trading in markets last week could be summed up briefly in two words: “volatility & reversal”. On the bond market, he highlighted that the 10-year bond yield was trading modestly lower due to a cooler-than-expected PPI. He also noted that this was a heavy economic reporting week with July CPI set to report on Wednesday and Initial Jobless Claims & Retail Sales on Thursday. On crude oil, he highlighted that WTI price was down ~$2/bbl. on Tuesday due to monthly reports from the IEA & OPEC showing minor 2024 demand reductions. He noted that despite these two demand datapoints that WTI still rebounded by ~$6/bbl. over the 5+ trading days due to improving technicals (WTI price back above its 50/100 day moving averages) and growing supply concerns (potential Iranian retaliation against Israel & Ukrainian incursion into Russia). He rounded out the conversation by highlighting that 3mo rolling forward copper prices have declined over the last 4-5 weeks (~$10.5k/MT down to ~$9k/MT) due to continued global demand concerns and elevated LME Copper inventories. He also noted that copper prices were getting bid up this week due to a workers s
For today’s discussion, we were pleased to host Julia Weller, Principal at Energy Law International. Julia has worked in electricity and natural gas regulation and transactions for over 30 years. She served at both Hunton & Williams and Pierce Atwood before starting Energy Law International in 2017. Energy Law International advises governments, private investors, international finance institutions and electricity transmission system operators across Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, the MENA Region and Sub-Saharan Africa on energy market reforms and provides support to institutions seeking to invest in emerging energy markets. We were thrilled to visit with Julia and gain valuable insights into the international energy law landscape. We first became connected with Julia after she recently published a very interesting article on 2024 power deregulation in Israel that caught our eye (linked here).
In our conversation, Julia first shares how she started her career helping countries with energy reforms after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the beginning of US/Western efforts to wean those countries from their dependence on Russian energy. Sound familiar? We discuss the missed opportunity in integrating the then struggling Russia into the global community, Energy Law International’s work to help countries improve legal systems for safer investments and introduce capitalist concepts, the increasing significance of climate change in legal/regulatory reforms and emerging markets, energy market reforms in Israel, and the stability and structure of Israel’s power market. We explore some of the key topics from Julia’s recent article on Israel, Israel’s historical need for self-reliance broadly, lessons from European countries focusing on renewable energy ahead of reliability and affordability, introducing competition in energy markets, and examples of market reform success. We ended by asking Julia for her vision of the energy world in ten years and her response was “a complete course correction.” It was a fascinating discussion. Julia’s answer to the 10-year question was quite direct and is linked here.
Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that prior to this week, U.S. equity markets could best be summed up in one word: “rotation” (out of S&P 500/Big Tech and into the Russell 2000). Global markets so far this week could be best defined as “volatility.” Over the last year, the S&P Volatility Index (VIX) had traded in a very tight range, but on Monday, it spiked to a 4-year intra-day high (2020 Covid Pandemic levels) before closing Tuesday at levels just above its recent trading range. So far this week, there’s been a substantial spike in the VIX, a plunge in Bitcoin, a temporary blowout in the Yen Carry trade, and a historical % plunge in the Nikkei Index. On the bond market front, the 10-year U.S. bond yield easily blew through 4.0% (~3.7%). Some were calling for the FED to implement an emergency interest rate cut which would be extremely counterproductive as in Mike’s view it would signal that the FED was behind the curve (and really worried) and could easily lead to an equity market plunge. On the crude oil front, WTI price continued to be pressured because of lack of technical trading support (under 50/100/200 moving averages) and growing global demand fears. Crude oil contract length over the last few weeks has gone from “net long” to neutral, and traders could push it to “net short,” but that’s largely dependent on the magnitude of Iranian retaliation against Israel in the near future. Mike ended by noting that this type of volatility is why energy companies need to continue pursuing pristine balance sheets which will allow them to be oppor
Today we were pleased to host Gerald Kepes, President of Competitive Energy Strategies, and Sudan Maccio, Chief Legal Counsel of PetroTal, for a discussion focused on Venezuelan politics, energy and economics. Jerry has over 40 years of experience as a consultant and petroleum geologist and is a regular contributor to Al-Monitor on the geopolitics of energy in the Middle East and North Africa. Sudan started his career at PDVSA and brings over 30 years of extensive legal experience in global energy across legal, commercial, and leadership roles. We were thrilled to bring Jerry and Sudan together to discuss the recent Venezuelan election.
In our conversation, Jerry and Sudan provide an overview of the recent election and the country’s opposition to President Maduro’s claimed victory. We discuss the current situation on the ground with ongoing protests, reactions from neighboring countries, the refugee crisis, how the military has been corrupted to support the ruling party and the potential for shifts in loyalty, and how the crisis is influencing global markets. We explore other geopolitical crises to understand potential strategy and outcomes, the possibilities and implications of foreign intervention, and influence from outside actors including Cuba, China, Russia, Iran and even Hezbollah. We also examine the role of the US in potentially intervening, possible outcomes, long-term implications, and much more. We ended by discussing how we can help the citizens of Venezuela and amplify their humanitarian needs. It was an enlightening discussion, and we are thankful to Jerry and Sudan for sharing their insights with us all.
Mike Bradley opened the conversation by highlighting that U.S. markets, so far this week, are mostly in churn-mode and laser focused on Wednesday’s FOMC Rate Decision Meeting. Bond traders expect the FED to leave interest rates unchanged but are hopeful Chairman Powell will indicate that the FED could be positioned, as early as September, to cut interest rates. WTI price has moved lower over the last few weeks due to growing fundamental concerns with 2H’24 oil demand (mostly slowing Chinese demand) but has plunged this week to ~$75/bbl mostly due to “technical” factors (Brent & WTI) breaking through 50/100/200 day moving averages which is leading to an unwind of “net” long interest in the crude complex. On the broader market front, he noted a continued rotation of AI/Big Tech names into the Russell 2000 due to a growing bet that the FED will be signaling a looser interest rate policy. The recent equity rotation could quickly unwind if the FED doesn’t signal a looser interest rate policy at the upcoming FOMC meeting. He also noted Q2 reporting up to this point has been dominated by Oil Services and natural-gas levered E&Ps but is now broadening out to all energy subsectors. He flagged a few key themes coming from Q2 calls including lower onshore oil service activity levels, a continuation of natural gas curtailments, and U.S. refiners highlighting that weaker refining cracks are resulting in global refining run cuts. Jeff Tillery also joined and added his perspective and inquiries to the discussion.
We hope you find the discussion as insightful as we did. Our thoughts and prayers are with the Venezuelan people and we are hopeful for a peaceful and democratic resolution.
Our best to you all. Thank you for your support and friendship!
Today we had the pleasure of hosting our good friend Dr. David Gattie, Associate Professor of Engineering at the University of Georgia. In addition to his role in the College of Engineering, David is a Senior Fellow at the University’s Center for International Trade and Security. David has a robust background including 18 years at the University of Georgia and 15 years in the energy private sector across production engineering, energy services engineering, and environmental engineering. His research focuses on the electric power sector, with an emphasis on comprehensive energy policy and integrated resource planning for overall energy and economic security, as well as national security. We were thrilled to visit with David.
In our discussion, David provides an overview of Georgia’s unique energy landscape and power generation focus. He explains Georgia’s approach to long-term energy planning through integrated resource plans mandated every three years, the structure of Georgia’s energy sector, the role of the Public Service Commission, and the pivotal role of nuclear energy in the state’s long-term energy strategy. We explore Georgia’s choice to maintain a regulated market rather than deregulating, the effectiveness of various market systems, trends in regulated versus deregulated markets, and the potential risks of an energy transition that neglects national security and industrial competitiveness. David also discusses the Center for International Trade and Security’s efforts, including training students to become strategic thinkers with expertise in nuclear technology and energy security, as well as collaborating with key organizations and experts in the field. We cover the role of trade in maintaining global stability and preventing conflicts, the expected increase in electricity demand, commercial viability and government involvement in nuclear development, optimism for realistic energy policies, and more. As you’ll hear, it was a meaty conversation and David was a fantastic guest with which to explore these important topics.
David’s full presentation including the slides referenced in our discussion is linked here. For additional reading, David’s recent report entitled “Competitive Advantage as a National Security Objective for US Civilian Nuclear Power Policy” is linked here. Additionally, if you are interested in reading the book David recommends during the show, “The Lessons of Tragedy” is linked here.
Mike Bradley opened the conversation by highlighting that it’s been a wild week for Presidential politics, which is introducing some added uncertainty to global markets. He noted there could be some increased volatility in the bond market at week’s end when Consumer Confidence and the PCE deflator are set to report. On the crude oil front, WTI price has plunged by ~$2.50/bbl (~$77.50/bbl) so far this week due to WTI price breaking through its 50/100/200 day moving averages and growing concern that Chinese commodity demand is slowing. On the energy equity front, Q2 reporting started last week and was skewed towards Oil Services. This week will also be heavy Oil Services but will also be broadening out to gas-levered E&Ps, Canadian E&Ps, Miners, Euro Oil Majors, Refiners and Electric Utilities. He also noted that equity investors will be paying a lot of attention to gas-levered E&P calls this week to get a sense of how they’re thinking about 2H’24/2025 gas price levels/direction and how that might influence their 2H’24 capex/guidance plans. Jeff Tillery added to Mike’s comments on oilfield services earnin
Today we had the honor of hosting former Senator Mary Landrieu of Louisiana. Senator Landrieu served for three terms from 1997 to 2015 and chaired the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, the Small Business and Entrepreneurship Committee and the Homeland Security Appropriations Committee. She also served on the Armed Forces Committee. During her time in Washington, Senator Landrieu gained a reputation for working across the aisle on important energy and other national priorities. Currently, Senator Landrieu is Co-Chair of Natural Allies, a coalition of stakeholders that recognize the vital role natural gas plays in the energy mix to meet carbon reduction goals. We were thrilled to visit with Senator Landrieu.
In our conversation we discuss how Louisiana’s industrial base relies heavily on energy production and consumption, the historical bipartisanship in the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, how geography influences people’s understanding and views on energy issues, the role of natural gas in reducing emissions, and why nuclear energy has bipartisan support. Senator Landrieu shares background on her role at Natural Allies and the group’s focus on supporting US natural gas, the need to educate the public on the economic benefit of open markets particularly for US exports, finding ways to help countries like China and India reduce their reliance on coal, why the Senator disagreed with the Biden Administration's LNG permitting pause, and broadly the need for pragmatic, bipartisan energy and climate solutions. We explore SPR usage and levels, the status of permitting reform with significant delays expected until after the Presidential Election, finding practical solutions to reduce emissions and grow the economy through building infrastructure faster, and much more. It was a fantastic conversation and we are very grateful to Senator Landrieu for sharing her time and valuable insights with us all. She calls it like she sees it and is a very refreshing centrist voice.
Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that 10-year bond yields continued their recent plunge after last week’s cooler than expected CPI report and currently trade at ~4.15%. WTI price is trading at ~$81/bbl and has been stuck in a tight trading range ($80-$83/bbl) for the last several weeks. Crude oil traders are focused on global demand and are growing concerned with slowing global economic growth, especially China. U.S. natural gas continued its recent plunge and trades at ~$2.15/Mcf, despite Hurricane Beryl temporarily curtailing 1.7-1.8bcfd from Freeport LNG. He noted that U.S. natural gas production has rebounded back above 101bcfd and remains problematic given natural gas storage levels that are ~18% above normal. He discussed that the main word to describe broader equity market trading action this last week is “rotation.” Big 6 (AI & Tech equities) and broader equity indices like the S&P 500 & Nasdaq are significantly underperforming smaller-cap indices like the Russell 2000, which are perceived to be bigger beneficiaries of lower future inflation/interest rates. He ended by noting that Q2 Energy sector reporting begins this week with both pipelines (KMI) and oil services (LBRT, HAL & SLB) reporting. Arjun Murti shared his thoughts on the need for a diverse energy portfolio to meet global demands, the roles of the US and Canada as key players in both traditional and new energy markets, the unnecessary partisan divide over energy sources, and the importance of leveraging the US’s leadership in technology and capital markets to lead in energy innovation.
We hope you enjoy the discussion with Senator Landrieu as much as we did. Thanks to you all for your friendship and support!
Today we were thrilled to be joined by Sean McGarvey, President of North America’s Building Trades Unions (NABTU), to discuss a critical topic: the nation’s energy workforce. Sean was elected to his position as President in 2012 and first started his building trades career with the International Union of Painters and Allied Trades in 1981. In addition to his role at NABTU, Sean serves on several private and public sector boards and co-chairs labor-management committees of the American Petroleum Institute, Southern Company, and the Nuclear Power LMCC. NABTU represents over three million skilled craft professionals in the US and Canada and offers robust apprenticeship and training programs. We have been eager to discuss the future of the energy workforce for some time and appreciate Sean sharing his unique perspectives with us.
In our conversation, Sean first shares background on NABTU and their areas of concentration including relationships with local developers and contractors, legislation, regulatory issues, training, and national committees. We discuss the union’s role in the construction industry, the future of skilled labor in the US, differences between union and non-union bids for large construction projects, the implications of the IRA and other recent legislation on union labor in energy projects, the current main concerns for NABTU members, and how recent legislation has impacted prevailing wages and labor standards in the construction industry (additional information on the Davis-Bacon act linked here and on the recent prevailing wage guidance linked here). Sean shares his perspective on NABTU’s relationships with international companies as well as their responsible investing efforts, the impact of large projects on the overall workforce availability and mobility, the role of nuclear energy and power demand projects in the US, the main economic concerns of NABTU members, permitting and regulatory challenges, and the role unions play in shaping legislation related to energy, infrastructure, and labor.
Another key topic we cover is the training and apprenticeship programs NABTU offers, totaling over 280,000 students and representing over half of the apprenticeships in the country. We talked with Sean about the choice between college and developing a skill/trade. He commented their programs often allow for the completion of degree credits while learning the trade skills, and also shared that some college graduates are joining their training programs after getting their college degrees. As we discussed young people, one particular observation he made that resonated was “you can make $150K a year and have no college debt.” We ended by asking Sean for his thoughts on the current presidential election, potential changes under a different administration, and policy and legislative concerns. It was a wide-ranging discussion.
Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that there could be some fireworks in the bond market this Thursday and Friday when CPI & PPI report. On the crude oil front, WTI price rallied over the last week or so due to substantial DOE crude oil draws last week but has pulled back slightly this week on relief that Hurricane Beryl hasn’t resulted in much oil/natural gas infrastructure damage. On the equity market front, he noted that broader markets continue posting new highs. On the energy equity front, he highlighted that energy was the worst performing S&P sector last week and that it would probably continue to be rangebound until investors get more comfortable with the forward global commodity macro. He also noted recent E&P consolidation and noted the likelihood of mor
Today we were delighted to welcome back George Bilicic for an engaging discussion on the current power and energy landscape. George serves as Vice Chairman and Global Head of Power, Energy and Infrastructure at Lazard. In his long and distinguished career, George has over 20 years of experience at Lazard in the investment banking business with previous senior roles at Cravath, Merrill Lynch, KKR, and Sempra Energy. We last hosted George on COBT on May 2, 2023 (episode linked here) and were excited to get him back to discuss how the world has changed in the past year, especially in power. Jeff Tillery, Mike Bradley and I were thrilled to visit with George in our office in Houston.
The discussion with George today began with hitting the high points of Lazard’s recently released 2024 Levelized Cost of Energy+ (LCOE+) report (linked here). George kicked us off by providing background on the report’s history and shares this year’s key conclusions including the stabilization of renewable costs, the importance of using all forms of energy, the cost and scaling benefits associated with energy storage, and the current status of the hydrogen market. We explore the report’s comparison of generation costs, the effect of the IRA on renewable energy costs, cost of capital impacts, storage economics, and challenges and opportunities in valuing nuclear energy assets. George goes on to share his perspective on key changes from last year’s LCOE+ report to this year’s, factors driving power demand, challenges in investing in gas infrastructure, the need for new infrastructure and permitting reform, consolidation in the power industry, the need for diverse generation resources and a more organized/systemic planning approach to incorporate them into reliable grids, and the necessity for more transmission infrastructure. We also discuss how tech companies’ decisions on where to locate data centers and their energy sources can significantly impact local economies and tax revenues, global energy trends and attitudes, public investor sentiment, the influence of market dynamics on capital allocation and investment strategies, and much more. We greatly appreciate George stopping by and sharing his time and perspectives. With George’s help, we also recently had the opportunity to host Peter Orszag, CEO of Lazard, this past March (episode linked here).
Our episode with George marks the final COBT episode recorded in our offices at the Ion. We are excited to move down the street to our new home in the Upper Kirby District. Stay tuned for our first COBT episode from the new studio!
Have a wonderful 4th of July!
Today we had the very exciting and interesting opportunity to visit with Russell Hagen, Senior Vice President and Chief Development Officer of Weyerhaeuser. Russell is responsible for Weyerhaeuser’s real estate, energy and natural resources businesses. Prior to his appointment as Chief Development Officer, Russell served as Chief Financial Officer from 2016 – 2021. Weyerhaeuser is the largest private owner of timberlands in North America, with 10.5 million acres in the US and 14 million acres licensed in Canada. In addition to timber products, Weyerhaeuser’s businesses include recreation, real estate, land and minerals, wood products, and climate solutions, including renewable energy development, forest carbon and CCS, and carbon credits. We were thrilled to visit with Russell.
In our discussion, Russell shares background on the history and scale of Weyerhaeuser and their business segments, Weyerhaeuser’s sustainable forestry practices, the company’s natural climate solutions business unit and ambitious growth targets for the business (aiming to grow the unit’s EBITDA to $100 million by 2025), and the current state and pricing of voluntary carbon credits. We discuss Weyerhaeuser’s strategy for maintaining high quality and credible carbon projects, the company’s partnership with Carbon Direct, Weyerhaeuser’s approach to acquisitions and the return profile for timber investments, forest management and sustainability, Russell’s approach to strategic development as a former CFO, the natural climate solutions market, and solar and carbon capture projects. We explore factors in determining good locations for forest carbon projects, balancing carbon projects with timber operations, growing recognition and demand for nature-based solutions, particularly among tech companies, technological innovations including the potential for innovations in bioengineering and alternative fuels derived from wood fiber, and the potential for significant innovation and capital investment in both nature-based and technological solutions for carbon management in the future. It was our pleasure to host Russell and we greatly enjoyed the discussion.
Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that over the last 7-8 trading days, the 10-year bond yield has been stuck in a narrow trading range of ~4.25%. There could be some fireworks in the bond market on Friday when the all-important PCE Deflator report drops. WTI price rallied another $3/bbl this past week and pushed WTI price to ~$81/bbl. Global oil demand, rather than supply, seems to be the biggest catalyst to break WTI price out of its recent trading band of $70-$90/bbl. He noted natural gas price has pulled back to ~$2.75/M despite a hot weather outlook and that lower-48 dry gas production has rebounded from a recent trough below 99bcfpd back up to over 101bcfpd, which could prove problematic in reducing the huge current gas storage surplus. Broader markets continue posting new highs as they follow the direction of AI/Tech equities. Broader equities seem to be running on fumes/losing trading momentum as broader market indices (S&P 500 & Nasdaq) still remain technically overbought. Energy was by far the best-performing S&P sector this past week (+4%). He noted YTD performance of Timber Companies, S&P Timber REITs, S&P Materials Sector and REITs Index and rounded out the conversation by highlighting performance (YTD, 1yr, 2yr & 3yr) in EU Carbon Permits. Todd Scruggs flagged the recent bankruptcy of Zachry and subsequent layoffs, highlighting the scale and complexity of industrial projects and the inflationary forces involved (Zachry press release linked here).
Thanks again to Russell for joining us and a special thank you to the whole Weyerhaeuser team for their help with making this episode possible. Our b
Today we had the honor of hosting Reginald DesRoches, President of Rice University, in Veriten’s offices at the Ion. Reggie assumed the role of President in July 2022, after previously serving as Rice’s Provost and the Dean of the Engineering School. Additionally, Reggie serves as a professor of civil and environmental engineering, and as a professor of mechanical engineering. Before his tenure at Rice, Reggie was Chair of the School of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Georgia Tech in Atlanta.
Rice University is an essential part of Houston’s community and is home to 8,600 plus students and more than 900 faculty members. As we discuss, Rice Management Company is responsible for developing the Ion District in partnership with the City of Houston, where Veriten first started in January 2022. We were thrilled to visit with Reggie and hear his perspectives on the world, energy, the Ion, and the current educational landscape.
In our conversation, we explore how AI will change the educational landscape and future career prospects for the next class of students starting at Rice, changes in demand for top areas of study, the vital role energy plays in economic development and healthcare, student attitudes towards energy, and the importance of exposing students to real-world energy access challenges in developing countries or rural areas. Reggie shares Rice’s efforts to increase study abroad participation to 50% to broaden student perspectives, the current generation’s eagerness to address global issues and make a difference, Rice’s University-Industry partnerships including Woodside and the Texas Medical Center, the role of industry in providing practical constraints and scalability considerations to university research, and the surge in industry interest Rice received following the Woodside partnership announcement (linked here). We discuss Rice’s goals for the Ion District and the potential for Houston to grow into a leading technology and innovation center, Houston’s unique advantages, Rice’s strategic plan for the next ten years, the balance between STEM and non-STEM disciplines at Rice, navigating research funding, planning for new facilities, the competitive landscape for hiring new faculty, and the importance of having global representation on campus. We ask Reggie for his perspective on the evolving role of university presidents, and as you’ll hear, the job is anything but easy. The Economist article Reggie references is linked here. We covered a great deal of territory and can’t thank Reggie enough for joining us today.
Mike Bradley kicked off the show by highlighting that the 10-year bond yield is hovering at ~4.25%. He noted this week’s economic calendar isn’t overly robust. WTI price has rallied ~$4/bbl over the last 4-5 days, trading back above $81/bbl and surpassing its 50/100/200-day moving averages. Whether you’re looking at 3mo, 6mo, 12mo or 24mo timeframe, WTI price has been relatively rangebound over those respective timeframes averaging ~$80/bbl and with crude oil volatility trading at multi-year lows. Broader equities continue to be driven by the recent drop in bond yields and a continuation of the strong AI/Tech rally. Broader equity market breadth continues to be extremely narrow, with the top six AI/Tech stocks (APPL, MSFT, NVDA, GOOG, AMZN & META) seeing their combined market-cap increase by $5T over the last year, pushing their combined market-cap to ~33% of the S&P 500. Jeff Tillery expanded on Mike’s thoughts on volatility, adding that the focus on commodity volatility will likely expand.
We hope you enjoy the conversation as much as we did! Thank you again to Reggie for stopping by. Go Owls!
Today we were thrilled to welcome back Dr. Francisco Monaldi, Director of the Latin America Energy Program, along with his colleague Dr. Tony Payan, Director of the Center for the U.S. and Mexico, with Rice University’s Baker Institute. Francisco last joined us on COBT in December 2022 (episode linked here) and is an expert on Latin American energy, policy, and economics. In addition to his role at the Baker Institute, Tony is a Professor of Social Sciences at the Universidad Autónoma de Ciudad Juárez and his research focuses primarily on border studies and US-Mexico relations. It was our pleasure to visit with Francisco and Tony for a Mexico and Latin America energy and geopolitics focused discussion.
In our conversation, we examine President Claudia Sheinbaum’s recent election, her background as a climate scientist and former Mayor of Mexico City, concerns about her independence and potential influence from former President Andres Manual Lopez Obrador (AMLO), violence in the recent election, implications for democracy and governance, regional perspectives on Mexico’s political trajectory, and the potential future direction of Mexico’s energy policies under President Sheinbaum. Francisco and Tony share their perspectives on Mexico’s decline in energy production, Mexico as a huge consumer of US (especially Texas) natural gas, the broader implications of nearshoring for US-Mexico relations, renewable energy and climate policy, and the importance of future energy policies for economic stability. We discuss Mexico’s economic challenges, broader Latin American trends, the potential impact of President AMLO’s policies if they persist for another decade, upcoming changes to the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the role of US diplomacy and political leverage in shaping Mexico’s policies, the need for a comprehensive framework addressing trade, immigration, and crime, and much more. It was an enlightening discussion and we are thankful to Francisco and Tony for sharing their insights with us all.
Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that this week is crucial for bonds, with the June CPI and FOMC Rate Decision on Wednesday potentially confirming or dispelling speculation about a 2024 Fed rate cut. On the crude oil front, WTI has rallied back to ~78/bbl after last week’s overselling post-OPEC meeting due to production cut confusion/uneasiness. OPEC’s June Monthly Oil Report (linked here) showed unchanged global oil demand estimates for 2024 and 2025, while the IEA’s global oil demand estimates (~1.0mmbpd below OPEC’s) will be released Wednesday. The 12-month natural gas strip has rallied to ~$3.50/MMBtu (highest since Nov ’23) driven by extreme heat forecasted through the month of June which might begin to influence current sizable E&P production curtailments. In Europe, several equity markets sold off, and EU bond yields spiked, notably in France, due to heightened political risk from the EU Parliamentary vote. Conservatives fared better than expected and Green Parties lost significant seats in Belgium, France, Germany and Italy, which could put future climate goals/policies at risk. He ended by noting US equity money flows, usually directed towards Emerging/International markets for diversification, are either stagnant or reduced due to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq’s outperformance driven by AI and Tech equities. Jeff Tillery noted there has been significant news about the Mexican stock market’s performance with Mexico and Brazil underperforming over the past one and three years, influenced by factors such as border issues, higher interest rates, post-election impacts, and cartel problems, but that Mexico’s reshoring trend suggests potential gains.
We hope you find the discussion as insightful and interesting as
We are sending out this Special Edition COBT at 6:30 AM CT. We are doing so because 80 years ago today, at 6:30 AM at Omaha Beach in Normandy, American troops (at an average age of 22) landed as part of the largest amphibious assaults in all of history. Over 4,000 Allied troops died this day 80 years ago as part of the effort to free Europe from the Nazis.
To help us fully grasp the gravity of D-Day, we invited acclaimed author and historian Alex Kershaw to join us on COBT. Alex is the author of over a dozen World War II books, and in particular, the author of “The First Wave: The D-Day Warriors Who Led the Way to Victory in World War II.” Jeff, Mike and I all read the book and felt so lucky to have Alex join us for this unique COBT.
One thing that’s quite special about our discussion with Alex is that he actually made a presentation, with slides, that we encourage you to watch. On each page, he shares the personal stories of key heroes from the British, Canadian, French and American forces whose heroics often turned the tide of battle at key moments. If you are able to watch this episode instead of listening, you will likely find it worth it.
Of the four million Americans who served in WWII, approximately 100,000 remain. The sad truth is they won’t be with us much longer. Toward the end of our discussion, we ask Alex what he has learned from all his research and writings. He shares his thoughts in a most poignant and direct way. You should hear his remarks for yourself, but the essence of the message is to not give up the fight for freedom and democracy EVER.
There will be many ceremonies today, as there should be. Today was one of America’s greatest moments, planned and executed hand in hand with our greatest allies. Dwight Eisenhower’s D-Day speech to soldiers from June 6, 1944 is also quite remarkable to listen to. You can find it linked here.
All our best to you on this hallowed and historical day. God bless the soldiers who died on this day. God bless you, and God bless America.
Today we had the pleasure of hosting Lynn Calder, CEO of INEOS Automotive, for an engaging discussion on vehicles, decarbonization, and the future of transportation. As you may have heard, INEOS Automotive has just launched a new vehicle called the Grenadier. Lynn is a fellow energy enthusiast and brings a fascinating background, having previously served at Lime Rock Partners and Talisman before joining INEOS and leading their Shale (CEO), Phenol (Commercial Director), and Composites (CEO) businesses. Lynn was appointed as CEO of INEOS Automotive in December 2022 and has taken on the challenge of building a new automotive company from the ground up. We were delighted to visit with Lynn and greatly appreciated hearing her unique perspectives about the automotive industry and so many of the energy and regulatory issues it touches.
One overarching topic that we’ve noticed, and that emerged in our discussion with Lynn, is how interesting large private companies are and their unique approach to decision-making. INEOS is a great example as a global chemical company with 36 diverse businesses including Hydrogen, Aromatics, Energy, Trading & Shipping, Hygienics, and Solvents among others. As you’ll hear in the discussion, Lynn feels she can make decisions quickly and that her team has the freedom to think outside of the box.
As we are all car people at heart, we were already fascinated by the challenges of starting a car company but the more we talked to her, the more we thought that what Lynn and INEOS Automotive are doing is a microcosm for what’s going on in the world. She had to work with 45 different governments to get approved for sale, is exposed to all the dialogue around EVs, EV adoption, hybrids, and automotive tariffs, as well as where governments want to take the world vs. where consumers want to go. Lynn also makes interesting comments about being an industrial company in Europe right now, the decisions that are being made in Europe, and how they could affect industry at large.
In our discussion we also explore INEOS Automotive’s vehicle lineup and what makes the Grenadier unique, their sales model and market strategy across the US, Europe, Africa and Asia, supplier relationships, plans for future growth, government policies and attitudes, potential shifts in powertrain strategies in the future, and the advantage of INEOS as an energy and chemical producer. Lynn shares her perspective on Europe’s competitiveness in global markets, China’s advancements in EV technology and its impact on trade regulations and EV adoption, the role of entrepreneurship in driving economic growth and much more. It was a fantastic discussion and we are excited to follow up with Lynn as INEOS Automotive continues to grow.
Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that over the last week or so, markets seem to be taking on a different tone, one of economic stagnation/slowdown. He noted the 10-year bond yield has recently sunk to ~4.3%, mostly due to a handful of weaker-than-expected economic reports, including today’s JOLTS Job Opening report, which are refueling speculation the FED will cut interest rates this year. Over the last five trading days, WTI price has plunged to ~$73/bbl and broken through “key” technical trading support levels. This week’s plunge in crude price was mostly related to disappointing/confusing news of a potential gradual unwinding of OPEC oil production cuts at a time when global demand growth looks to be slowing. Energy equities are holding up much better in this current downdraft than crude oil. He ended by noting the substantial year-to-date performance gap between EV & ICE auto companies as ICE companies seem to be moving increasingly towards hybrids. Todd Scruggs added to Mike’s comments with data on US and European automotive sales, highlighting the predominance of SUVs and trucks in the US versus a much lower SUV to EV ratio in Europe, indicating a po
On this Memorial Day, we are excited to share a Special Edition with Representative John Curtis (R-UT). Rep. Curtis has been serving in Congress for four terms, beginning in 2017, and is currently running for the U.S. Senate. He serves on the Energy and Commerce Committee including as Vice-Chair of the Energy, Climate and Grid Security Subcommittee. Additionally, he serves as Vice Chair of the Federal Lands Subcommittee and member of the Energy & Mineral Resources Subcommittee on the Natural Resources Committee. He also founded and leads the Conservative Climate Caucus. Prior to his tenure in Congress, Rep. Curtis served as the Mayor of Provo. Leslie Beyer, Veriten Senior Advisor, was kind enough to connect us with Rep. Curtis and Mike, Todd and I were honored to host him in our offices in Houston.
Rep. Curtis first shares the inspiration for creating the Conservative Climate Caucus and its role to support solutions that reduce emissions without drastic economic costs. We discuss the importance of distinguishing between climate and climate extremism, Rep. Curtis’s approach to addressing climate issues within the context of energy independence and economic stability, and the importance of avoiding divisive rhetoric and focusing on practical, bipartisan solutions. Rep. Curtis shares his perspective on learning from European energy policies to avoid energy dependence on adversaries, the potential of geothermal energy advancements driven by fracking technology, and the role of the US as a leader in energy technology and the global impact of its energy policies. We discuss distinguishing between reducing emissions versus eliminating fossil fuels, rising power costs and their impact on businesses and families, the need for better education on the realities of different energy sources, addressing climate and environmental concerns within the context of other critical national priorities, areas of bipartisan agreement, and his perspective on restoring the Republican brand and principles. We also highlight Utah’s blend of entrepreneurial spirit, fiscal responsibility, and environmental stewardship, the complex relationship between the US and China, and more.
We ended by asking Rep. Curtis for his vision and hopes for the political landscape in ten years. We greatly appreciate Rep. Curtis’s optimistic outlook for the future political leadership of the US as well as the hard work he is doing in Washington on behalf of the energy community and all Americans who want sensible, balanced approaches.
We hope you have a safe and happy Memorial Day as we all remember and honor the brave men and women who have made the ultimate sacrifice for the freedoms we enjoy.
COBT returns next week with a regularly scheduled episode on June 5th and a surprise Special Edition on June 6th. We are very excited about both!
Thanks to you all for your friendship and support!
Today we had the pleasure of visiting with Max Layton, Global Head of Commodities Research at Citi. Prior to joining Citi in 2017, Max held notable leadership positions including Managing Director and Head of European Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs as well as Deputy Head of Commodities Research at Macquarie. We have been eager to examine copper’s recent record highs and were excited to have Max join us for a discussion on global commodity trends.
In our conversation with Max, we discuss the current commodities landscape and significant trends that Max and his team are observing in the market. We explore the primary factors driving the copper surge, the impact of US Federal Reserve policies on global commodities markets, investment strategies for short-term cycles and long-term structural trends, and the most significant opportunities for growth and investment in the commodities market over the next few years. Max shares his perspective on China’s role in the energy transition and how China’s technological advancements impact the copper market, potential risks to the copper market from geopolitical events or changes in global trade policies, broader energy transition dynamics, and how the current state of the uranium market compares to other commodities. We cover how global economic trends and technological advancements might shape the copper market over the next decade, supply side challenges for copper, how speculative funds impact the copper market, the natural gas market in the US and globally, current trends driving gold prices, long-term oil market demand outlook, power prices and industrial activity, and more. It was fantastic to get Max’s perspective from his vantage point in London and as head of the global group. He and his team clearly see market developments and gather information from multiple unique angles. Thank you for joining, Max!
Mike Bradley kicked off the show by noting that this week could be a much slower news week for markets than prior weeks. On the economic front, he highlighted the 10-year yield was trading at ~4.45% yield and that there could be a bit of churn in bond yields this week due to lack of any real economic stats (outside of the FOMC meeting minutes). WTI remains stuck in a narrow trading band ($77-$81/bbl) even with the death of Iran’s President and Foreign Minister in a helicopter crash over the weekend. Front month copper contracts recently spiked above $5.00/lb. mostly due to a substantial increase in “NET” non-commercial future positions. Mike also noted that long-term copper fundamentals remain constructive due to Russian metals sanctions, global production cuts and mine closures (ex. Panama), all at a time when copper demand is set to accelerate. On the broader equity market front, the DJIA hit an all-time high (>40,000) as well as most other broader market indices. NVIDIA reports Q1 results on Wednesday (after the close) and could be a market moving event for broader markets and the Tech sector. He ended by noting that NVIDIA is the best performing S&P 500 Stock YTD (+90%), accounting for ~25% of S&P 500 gains in 2024, so the investor expectation bar is pretty elevated for NVIDIA. Brett Rampal also joined and added his perspective and inquiries to the discussion.
Thanks to you all for your support and friendship!
Today we had the pleasure of welcoming back Alexander Zaslavsky, Co-Founder and Managing Partner of Horizon Engage. Alex established Horizon Engage in 2003 and specializes in energy politics in Russia and the former Soviet Union. Horizon Engage merges tech and geopolitical expertise to provide country insights, data on how sanctions and counter sanctions impact your business, security analysis and advisory solutions. To help navigate a meaty Russian/Central Asian/Middle Eastern geopolitical discussion, we called on our good friend Gabe Collins to jump in as a cohost. As you may know, Gabe is a Baker Botts Fellow in Energy and Environmental Regulatory Affairs at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy. We were thrilled to visit with Alex and Gabe.
In our discussion, we address various aspects of the ongoing war in Ukraine, including its impact on alliances and energy security in Europe, business takeovers in Russia following Western companies’ divestment from Russian subsidiaries, and the domestic impact of the conflict with what Gabe refers to as the “Wagnerization of Russia” where families are getting large cash payments for the service (and death) of their male soldiers. We explore the sustainability of Russia’s military endeavors and the potential for escalation, the intensity and effectiveness of Russia’s internal propaganda about the war, the lingering effect of Prigozhin’s legacy (and popularity with the Russian people), and the significance of Russian oil for the country’s economy and its role in funding the war effort. We discuss the Biden Administration’s approach in Ukraine which seems to fear a Russian loss as much as a Russian win, China’s industrial base and its support for Russia in the conflict, the effectiveness of Western sanctions against Russia and lack of real enforcement, potential NATO actions, and geopolitical considerations with COP29 set to be hosted in Azerbaijan. Alex provides insights into potential outcomes of the conflict in Ukraine, geopolitical dynamics and alliances in the region, strategic considerations of Western powers regarding their approach to Russia, the influence of financial institutions like the World Bank, the many mistakes both sides have made in all this, and much more. It was an engaging discussion that highlighted the complexity of geopolitical and economic factors at play. Thank you to Alex and Gabe for joining!
Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that most markets this week are focused on one item and that’s the April CPI print due to report on Wednesday morning. On the economic front, Tuesday’s April PPI printed much hotter than expected and the 10-year bond yield unexpectedly decreased to end the day at ~4.45%. On the commodity front, he noted the spike in near-month copper futures to an all-time high (>$5/lb.). He also noted the copper curve has recently shifted from long held contango to a steep backwardation structure which is likely due to a near-month contract squeeze and improving S/D fundamentals. On the broader equity market front, equities so far this week have traded sideways in anticipation of Wednesday’s CPI print which likely could lead to elevated equity market volatility for the remainder of the week. He ended by highlighting the progression of ten stats (bond, commodity and equity) since Alexander’s previous COBT appearance in December 2021.
For our COBT history buffs, today’s episode marks Alex’s fourth guest appearance on COBT. He previously joined on December 7, 2021 (episode linked here), May 19, 2020 (episode linked here) and first on April 7, 2020 (episode linked here). Today’s episode also marks Gabe’s third guest appearance; he previously joined on August 23, 2023 (episode linked
For today’s discussion we were pleased to host Jim Matheson, CEO of the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association (NRECA). Jim’s distinguished background includes roles in both the public and private sectors. Prior to joining the NRECA in 2016, he served in the public policy practice at Squire Patton Boggs based in Washington, D.C. Jim was elected as a U.S. Representative for Utah from 2001 to 2015 and has significant experience in the energy industry. The NRECA is a vital national service organization representing over 900 consumer-owned electric cooperatives, collectively serving 42 million people across 48 states in the US. We were excited to visit with Jim and gain valuable insights into the cooperative landscape.
Jim first provides background on the unique structure of electric cooperatives, how they are owned by the members they serve, and focus on consumer interest rather than shareholder interests (a detailed overview of US electric co-ops is linked here). We explore how electric co-ops approach decision making regarding power systems to balance cost, reliability, and emissions reduction, the evolving generation mix, the shrinking margin of error in meeting peak demand and the increasing risk of outages, and the US’s struggle to keep up with building new power plants while also shutting down existing ones prematurely. Jim shares his perspective on the need for increased resiliency in the electric grid, particularly through the expansion of transmission infrastructure, and concerns with the feasibility and economic impact of recent EPA regulations targeting emissions reduction from coal and natural gas plants (details linked here). We discuss potential bipartisan efforts to revise permitting and streamline processes, growing awareness among the public on power issues, election year dynamics, the benefits of natural gas as a fuel source for electricity generation, the need for continued vigilance around cybersecurity measures in the electricity sector, the possibility of bipartisan efforts to prioritize energy security and reliability, and more. We greatly appreciate the work Jim and the team at NRECA are doing.
Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that markets have been choppy this past week but managed to get by with modest gains. The 10-year bond yield has plunged to ~4.45%, down from ~4.7%, just one week ago. Bond yields dropped despite the FOMC leaving interest rates unchanged, mostly because Chairman Powell signaled the next rate move would likely not be a rate hike. WTI price this past week had collapsed ~5/bbl due to a large increase in US crude oil inventories, less concern over Mideast chaos, and WTI trading through important technical trading levels. Crude oil traders seem to firmly believe that OPEC will not announce they’re putting barrels back into the market at their June 1st meeting, especially at sub-~80/bbl. Natural gas is trading at its highest level since early January, mostly due to the monthly futures contract roll. The US natural gas storage surplus is still high, but lower 48 natural gas production is falling faster than expected and recently averaged less than 99bcfd. Most S&P companies have reported Q1 results, and so broader markets will need to look elsewhere for direction. Broader markets have rallied recently as they’re less worried today about higher interest rates and higher commodity prices. He further noted that broader markets recently have had a nice bounce because they were technically oversold, and volatility had spiked but are now moving towards overbought territory again. He ended by flagging most energy companies have reported Q1 results and this week will be a heavy dose of SMID-cap E&Ps, Global Oil Majors
Today we had the pleasure of hosting David Holt, President of the Consumer Energy Alliance (CEA), for an important discussion on electricity affordability and reliability for consumers. David’s background is in government affairs with over thirty years of experience working for state and federal agencies and directing outreach and advocacy efforts. The CEA will be celebrating its 20th anniversary in 2025 and has nearly 400 corporate members and over 550,000 individual members representing families, farmers, small businesses, distributors, labor organizations, manufacturers, and energy providers. Beyond his leadership at the CEA, David also serves as Managing Partner of HBW Resources, a consultancy specializing in strategic planning and government affairs in the energy, transportation, and environmental sectors. We were thrilled to have the opportunity to visit with David.
In our conversation, David first provides background on the CEA and the groups they represent as well as their “all of the above” approach to meeting energy needs in an affordable, reliable, and sustainable manner. David shares his perspective on the impact of energy policies on prices, concerns with reliability, how energy policy has become overly politicized with a focus on environmental aspects at the expense of affordability and reliability, the role of inflation in the current energy landscape, and the need for increased investment in natural gas infrastructure. We discuss permitting and signaling issues, regulatory framework and regional differences between oil and gas and the electricity sector, factors contributing to the increase in electricity prices, identifying reliable sources of information for understanding energy costs, policy implications, and environmental impacts, and strategies for educating and mobilizing consumers to advocate for their interests in energy policy decisions. We explore voter influence on policy, the role of US oil and natural gas production in moderating global oil prices, the future of the CEA, the challenges of getting the public’s attention on energy and power issues, the CEA’s reaction to recent policies including the IRA, and more. David was a fantastic guest and we greatly enjoyed the conversation.
Mike Bradley highlighted a few topics to kick us off. He noted the 10-year government bond yield looks to have found some temporary support at 4.65% and flagged that this could be an unusually volatile trading week for markets (especially bonds) given that both the JOLTS Job Openings Report and FOMC Rate Decision will be taking place on Wednesday. WTI (~$82/bbl) has pulled back recently on the news of a temporary cooling in Mideast tension; nevertheless, he noted that the 2024 crude oil S/D setup still looks very constructive. Q1 earnings for the Magnificent Seven tech stocks will be winding up this week and investor focus will begin shifting to the other 60% of the S&P 500 for near-term direction. On the energy equity front, over seventy energy and electric utility companies will be reporting Q1 results this week with a heavy focus on E&P, Midstream & Electric Utility companies. He ended by flagging that electricity growth will be a more widely discussed topic/theme across most of the reporting energy and electric companies, just as it has been for industrial companies so far in the Q1 reporting season. Todd Scruggs prepped us for our discussion with David by sharing data on electricity costs across the United States. Comparing recent data from February and last summer, he found that California and Northeastern states consistently pay the most, while the West South-Central region pays the least, even during peak summer months.
We look forward to following the CEA’s progress and will be sure to share their state electricity scorecards when they’re launched. Thank you again to David for joining and thanks to you all for your support and friendship!
Today we had the pleasure of hosting David Sacks, Fellow for Asia Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), for a comprehensive discussion on China and the intricate dynamics of US-China, US-Taiwan, and cross-Strait relations. Prior to joining the CFR in 2017, David served at the American Institute in Taiwan focused on political military affairs. David’s research spans Asia, China, Taiwan, defense and security, as well as political history and theory including the political thought of Hans Morgenthau. The CFR is an independent think-tank and publisher committed to providing insights into global affairs and serves as a resource for its members and the broader public in navigating the complexities of international relations. We have been interested for quite some time in finding an expert on China and were thrilled to visit with David.
In our conversation, David first shares background on China’s evolving role globally and the changing dynamics of US-China relations, the security-related and economic implications of conflict between China and Taiwan, the challenges in managing tensions in the Taiwan Strait, escalating tensions in the South China Sea, US-China rivalry in the region and its effects on maritime activity, and China’s assertive foreign policy under Xi Jinping’s leadership and its implications for global power dynamics. David shares his perspective on similarities and differences between the Trump and Biden Administrations’ approaches to China, the feasibility and implications of decoupling from China economically and the interdependence between the US and China in the global economy, the potential for future leadership changes in China, and how other countries are responding to China’s assertiveness including how European perceptions and policies towards China have evolved. We explore China’s economic and demographic outlook and the country’s overall strengths and weaknesses, potential implications if China were to become weaker in the next 10-20 years, the potential export of low-cost EVs from China, trust issues in US-China relations, Taiwan’s perspective and defense strategies, the CFR’s role in international diplomacy, and much more. Thank you, David, for sharing your insights with us all! We learned a tremendous amount and could have gone another hour we were so intrigued with the conversation.
Mike Bradley kicked us off with a few updates. He noted the 10-year government bond yield looks to have found some temporary support at ~4.6% but will likely move on Friday’s PCE deflator report. WTI (~$83/bbl) pulled back this past week on what looks to be temporary cooling in Mideast tension. Oil trader sentiment seems to have shifted to one that could be underestimating future geopolitical risks, which could send oil prices materially higher, and force OPEC to push barrels back into the market. Q4 earnings are kicking into high gear with ~35% of S&P 500 companies reporting this week, which should result in elevated broader market trading volatility. S&P 500 relative strength has recently reversed from overbought to oversold levels, and S&P 500 volatility has also spiked to 1-year highs. On the energy equity front, he highlighted that Q1 results are also beginning to kick into high gear with a barrage of results from E&Ps, Oil Majors, Oil Services & Refiners. Electric Utilities were by far the best performing S&P sector last week and there will be many companies reporting this week. He ended by discussing YTD Asian equity market performance, noting that Japan and Taiwan are the top two regional equity market performers. Arjun Murti discussed the concept of geopolitical risk premiums in oil prices, noting three key factors: structural changes in major producers, civil strife causing production fluctuations and difficult forecasting, and the impact of war. Sharing examples for each element, he noted the complex nature of geopolitical risk and its influence on s
Today we were delighted to host Matt Parker, Managing Director and Head of Strategy, alongside Alex Melvin, Commodity Risk Analyst, with Mobius Risk Group for an extensive discussion on commodity and power markets, as well as volatility and risk management in particular. Matt joined Mobius in 2018 and oversees fundamental analytics, decision strategies, financial trading, and physical marketing teams. Alex is the author of Mobius’ Intel Briefs and Energy Shots research and brings prior experience in data analysis and technical writing. Mobius Risk Group is a risk advisory firm offering market guidance to producers, consumers, and capital market participants, influencing transactions totaling over $100B across more than 50 commodities annually. We were thrilled to visit with Matt and Alex.
The catalyst to our discussion stems from a report Mobius recently released titled “Eclipse Power Prices Hit $471/MWh: Tracking the Texas grid during the 2024 Total Solar Eclipse” (linked here). Matt and Alex first share background on the Mobius team and their research, natural gas market volatility and its impact on hedging strategies for producers and consumers, and the role of speculators in commodity markets and the influence on pricing dynamics. We explore factors influencing the growth of LNG markets and its implications for energy markets, the challenges and opportunities in renewable energy variability and its impact on grid stability, and regional energy market dynamics, including the reluctance to build pipelines and storage facilities on the West and East Coasts of the US. We discuss key themes from the Eclipse report including the inspiration behind writing the report, storage dynamics and the impact of gas prices on production, the potential shift towards LNG as a solution to market imbalances, the effectiveness of market mechanisms versus centralized control in addressing energy challenges, how consumers are adapting to increased volatility in gas prices, efforts by gas producers to manage volatility in prices and production decisions, the potential for increased gas exports to Mexico, risk management strategy differences between public and private companies, and much more. Thanks to Matt and Alex for joining us today!
Mike Bradley started the show by highlighting this week’s spike in the 10-year government bond yield to ~4.65%, mostly due to a hot Retail Sales report on Monday. He noted the next big economic report will be Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday, and if that report prints hotter than expected, odds for a rate cut (anytime soon) would appear very low. On the commodity front, Brent (~$90/bbl) & WTI (~$85/bbl) prices barely budged on the recent Iranian/Israeli conflict, mostly because it was pretty well announced, and to a certain degree already dialed into oil prices. A 2H’24 global oil S/D deficit could position OPEC to begin adding back barrels into the market, potentially as early as June. On the broader equity market front, equities continue to take their cue from interest rate volatility, potential additional Mideast conflict, and Q1 EPS results. Q1 earnings season has begun (with mixed results) and it’s important, given lofty valuations, that S&P companies deliver solid Q1 results and guidance. He ended by flagging that Q1 energy results begin this week with Kinder Morgan and Liberty Energy reporting on Wednesday and SLB on Friday. Liberty Energy should provide investors with an early glimpse of U.S. pressure pumping dynamics while the SLB call should be predominately focused on international and offshore growth. Todd Scruggs emphasized recent analysis from Mobius regarding global coal generation, particularly in China, India, and Indonesia, and compared it to renewable energy development in the US. Globally, approximately 50 GW of coal capacity was added, while the US saw an addition of around 30
Today we were thrilled to be joined by Maya MacGuineas, President of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), to discuss a critical yet often ignored topic: the US national debt and budget deficits. Prior to her tenure at the CRFB starting in 2004, Maya served at the Brookings Institution and on Wall Street. Maya is a native Washingtonian, Harvard Kennedy School alumni, and frequently testifies before Congress as a leading budget expert. Founded in 1981, the CRFB is a bipartisan nonprofit dedicated to educating the public on issues with significant fiscal policy impact. The organization offers independent policy analysis, engages with policymakers to improve the country’s fiscal and economic condition, and serves as an educational resource. At over 100% of GDP and in the range of the all-time high last seen during World War 2, the US national debt looms large as a significant macroeconomic and overall risk factor to the nation and the world. We were so excited to hear Maya’s insights on this very important and very complex subject.
In our conversation, Maya shares historical context on past efforts to address fiscal issues and how interest in fiscal policy has fluctuated (from Ross Perot to Simpson-Bowles to today), the current economic situation, the impact of recent events like COVID-19 on government borrowing and spending, how the increase in interest rates has highlighted the structural nature of the problem and gained the public’s attention, and the current polarizing political environment and how it has halted efforts to address fiscal challenges. We discuss the responsibility of political leaders to acknowledge and address long-term budget concerns, challenges with addressing entitlement programs including Social Security and Medicaid, political leaders’ refusal to address issues that are headed towards trust fund insolvency, proposed solutions including establishing a fiscal commission to tackle the issue comprehensively, the idea of inflating away the debt or selling assets to reduce the debt, major threats posed by the growing national debt including loss of fiscal space, economic slowdown, national security risks and intergenerational inequity, and much more. We covered a great deal of territory and can’t thank Maya enough for joining. As you will hear, we offered to help Maya in any way we can, including helping her salute the “fiscal heroes” who are leaning in and trying to make a difference.
Mike Bradley kicked us off by flagging that this is an extremely important week for markets given both the March CPI and PPI will be released on Wednesday and Thursday respectively, and that if these stats print hotter-than-expected, the FED will not be cutting rates anytime soon. He noted markets may be underestimating inflation given sharp YTD gains in a variety of commodities. On the commodity front, WTI is trading at ~$86/bbl (highest level since Oct’23), WTI time spreads continue to trade in huge backwardation and the 2H’24 oil S/D deficit positions OPEC to push barrels back into the market. He noted that even though we remain pretty constructive with the 2H’24 crude oil setup, we’re a bit concerned the recent crude oil bullishness is becoming too consensus. On the broader equity market front, equities continue to take their cue from both interest rates and an obsession with AI equities. If CPI and PPI readings print cooler-than-expected, it will result in a huge bond and broader equity market rally. This Friday will also be a heavy Q4 reporting week for U.S. major banks. He ended by highlighting that Exxon Mobil Corp. recently hit an all-time stock price high and that its market-cap and enterprise values (~$500B) finally rebounded back to their late-2007 levels. In late 2007, energy’s weighting as a percentage of the S&P 500 was ~13% (peaked at ~16% in mid-2008) and today is at ~4%, leaving the energy sector plenty more room to run in the years ahead. Arjun Murti dis
Today we had the pleasure of hosting our good friend Derek Podhaizer, Vice President of Equity Research at Barclays. Derek started his research career at the firm in 2014 and leads coverage of U.S. Onshore Energy Services and Geothermal. Given the recent flurry of activity within the services sector, including Tuesday’s SLB-ChampionX announcement (linked here), it was fantastic to hear Derek’s observations on the space including overall investor sentiment, emerging trends in services and geothermal, and investor perception and feedback.
In our conversation with Derek, we discuss the significant changes in energy services over the past decade, transitioning from a boom-and-bust cycle to a focus on capital discipline and shareholder returns, M&A themes driving consolidation in the oilfield services sector, primarily driven by supply rationalization and synergistic services, and the importance of cultural integration in M&A transactions. Derek shares current trends including emerging and growing power solutions businesses, growing interest in geothermal energy among oilfield service companies, the potential for a divergent market in companies providing integrated solutions compared to others, and how total cost of ownership and efficiency drives investor confidence and differentiation among service providers. We discuss long-term value creation in energy services, Barclay’s research department and coverage, technological advances and production efficiencies, excitement for the potential of geothermal energy to become a significant contributor to the energy mix, investor interest in geothermal, and more. We ended by asking Derek for his thoughts on the state of the energy transition discussion from his vantage point in New York. Thank you for joining, Derek!
Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that Monday’s ISM Manufacturing report and Tuesday’s JOLTS Job Openings reports both surpassed expectations, which pushed the 10-year government bond yield to a YTD high of ~4.35%. He noted the current consensus for multiple interest rate cuts (starting in June) is getting challenged by recent strong economic prints, continued record U.S. budget deficits, strengthening energy commodities and accelerating future power demand growth. WTI is trading at ~$85/bbl, marking its highest level since October 2023 and crude oil is continuing to show signs of real physical tightness as WTI time spreads are trading at their steepest level of backwardation since June 2022. OPEC is meeting this Wednesday and most traders expect them to signal continued production constraint through Q2’24. He further noted that OPEC looks to be in full control of crude markets and that the global oil S/D setup looks very constructive heading into 2H’24, both of which should position OPEC to add barrels into an undersupplied global oil market in 2H’24. On the broader equity market front, over the last few days markets have been pressured due to an unexpected surge in interest rates. Tesla was also weighing on markets due to its disappointing Q1 deliveries and providing further proof that U.S. electric vehicle sales are facing some temporary demand headwinds. He ended by highlighting SLB’s agreement to buy ChampionX in an all-stock deal and also noted the solid YTD performance of Oil Services. Jeff Tillery noted the unique dynamics of M&A in energy services and the operational intricacies involved, segueing into our conversation with Derek.
It was great luck to have Derek on a day when a major transaction was announced in oilfield services. The OFS space remains super intriguing for its ability to range across classic as well as new energy technologies. We look forward to staying in touch with Derek and thank you, as always, for your friendship!
We had a fantastic session today with Jun Nishizawa, Executive Vice President and CEO of the Natural Gas Group at Mitsubishi Corporation. Jun joined Mitsubishi Corporation in 1986 as an oil trader and has since held a variety of roles in Tokyo and overseas. As CEO of the Natural Gas Group, Jun is responsible for Mitsubishi Corporation’s LNG business globally and leads the execution of the organization’s decarbonization strategy including the company’s involvement in the Breakthrough Energy Catalyst founded by Bill Gates. It was our pleasure to host Jun to discuss Mitsubishi Corporation’s LNG effort and the evolving trends in the global LNG landscape.
Jun first provides background on the massive scale of Mitsubishi Corporation and its various businesses spanning energy, mining, automobiles, infrastructure, and more. We cover Mitsubishi Corporation’s LNG business and the company’s role in establishing the LNG market in Japan in the 1960s, the current LNG market in Japan, attitudes in Japan toward natural gas, nuclear and renewables, the potential for ammonia as a cleaner alternative for power plants and shipping, and Mitsubishi Corporation’s interest in E-LNG. Jun shares insights into the growth trajectory of the LNG market globally, projected LNG demand, factors influencing LNG supply, the impact of AI on power demand and productivity gains, Japan’s energy security and geopolitical concerns, and the importance of long-term LNG contracts. We discuss the role of the US as a reliable energy partner for Japan and other Asian countries, how Mitsubishi Corporation is incorporating AI into its operations across different sectors, and the need for continued investment in LNG energy infrastructure. We end by discussing Jun’s upcoming retirement plans to join the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ) as a Visiting Fellow. Thank you for joining, Nishizawa-san, and all the best for your next chapter!
Mike Bradley kicked us off by noting the bond market’s focus on the February PCE Deflator, which is expected to be around 2.5%. Despite the Fed’s decision to maintain interest rates last week and signal three quarter-point rate cuts in 2024, lingering cyclical and secular inflation concerns persist. WTI is finding trading support above $80/bbl and crude oil time spreads continue to remain in steep backwardation due to tight physical crude markets. Additionally, the IEA’s reversal of its 2024 global crude oil stance from surplus to deficit provided further support to crude oil prices. However, U.S. natural gas price continues to stay pressured due to a surplus of ~690bcf and severe damage to a key East Coast bridge in Baltimore will temporarily curtail coal and crude product exports. The S&P energy sector is up ~11% YTD and is outpacing the S&P 500 & Nasdaq despite AI dominating broader market sentiment. Mike also noted high-level takeaways from CERAWeek including an energy transition conversation that’s becoming much more balanced/pragmatic, a substantial number of AI discussions/panels, a considerable amount of “global” electricity load growth discussions, a more constructive energy commodity demand outlook, and an extensive amount of U.S. permitting conversations. He ended by highlighting that the Japanese stock market (Nikkei) is trading at an all-time high and noted that the last time the Nikkei traded at these levels was in December 1989 (35 years ago). Jeff Tillery shared his top takeaways from CERAWeek related to Asia and the energy transition, leading into our conversation with Jun.
Thanks to you all. We hope you enjoy today’s session as much as we did. Arigatou gozaimasu Nishizawa-san!
We are thrilled to share this Special Edition COBT episode featuring Peter Orszag, CEO of Lazard. Peter assumed the role as Lazard CEO in the fall of 2023, after serving as CEO of Lazard’s Financial Advisory business. Prior to his tenure at Lazard, Peter’s wide-ranging career includes serving as Director of the Office of Management and Budget and as Director of the Congressional Budget Office during the Obama Administration. Peter also served as Special Assistant to the President for Economic Policy in the Clinton Administration and Senior Fellow and Deputy Director of Economic Studies at the Brookings Institution. Mike Bradley, Jeff Tillery and I were pleased to host Peter and hear his unique insights from his experience spanning both public service and private enterprise.
Peter recently co-authored an OpEd for Foreign Affairs entitled “Geopolitics in the C-Suite” (linked here) that explores how corporations are increasingly struggling with geopolitical complexity, an area which impacts capital allocation and long-range investment decisions. In our conversation, we cover main themes from the article, global macroeconomic trends, managing a global corporation like Lazard amidst geopolitical challenges, the potential for a “US-EU Super Bloc” and missed opportunities for collaboration in trade and energy strategies, structural challenges facing Chinese economic growth, and the impacts of political polarization on foreign policy. We discuss shifting dynamics in the Middle East, implications of the Chevron deference case (additional information here), factors influencing M&A and restructuring activity, the integration of AI in various industries, Lazard’s Power, Energy & Infrastructure team/effort, CFIUS, and overall antitrust activity. Peter shares his perspective on managing information overload, the challenge of addressing long-term US national debt, differences he’s noticed between public and private sector planning timelines, and much more. We end by discussing Lazard’s vision for 2030 and their “Banker-Scholar” culture. It was a fascinating discussion.
For additional reading, Lazard’s 2023 Annual Letter to Shareholders is linked here and Lazard’s report on Top Geopolitical Trends in 2024 is linked here. For further watching, we have previously hosted two Lazard guests on COBT: George Bilicic, Vice Chairman and Global Head of Power Energy & Infrastructure (May 3, 2023 linked here) and Admiral William McRaven, Senior Advisor (July 28, 2020 linked here).
We hope you enjoy the conversation as much as we did! Thank you again to Peter for joining. Our best to you all.
Today we had the honor of hosting Mike Wirth, Chairman and CEO of Chevron. Mike’s journey at Chevron began as a design engineer in 1982 and since then, he has held senior leadership roles in several divisions of the company. Most recently, Mike served as the Vice Chairman of the Board of Directors and as Executive Vice President of Midstream and Development before assuming his role as CEO in 2018. Beyond his role at Chevron, Mike is engaged in industry advocacy and global initiatives, serving on the board of directors of Catalyst, as an Executive Committee Member of the American Petroleum Institute, and as an Executive Committee Member of the World Economic Forum International Business Council, among other notable roles. With CERAWeek in full swing in Houston, we were fortunate to sit down with Mike to explore the current energy landscape, global energy dynamics, the future of energy, and of course, activity at CERAWeek.
In our conversation with Mike, we discuss the changing tone and focus of energy conversations and the pragmatic and realistic tone at CERAWeek, Mike’s background in engineering and its influence on his leadership style and decision-making processes, the importance of understanding customer needs and preferences in the energy sector, and the evaluation of investments that rely on subsidies. Mike shares his perspective on the integration of cultures during mergers and acquisitions, the importance of fostering collaboration and alignment while preserving the strengths of acquired companies, the future of exploration in meeting global energy needs, the evolution of shale innovation, current geopolitical risks, trends in government intervention, inflationary pressures, energy access in developing countries, and his perspective on recent developments surrounding Chevron’s acquisition of Hess Corporation. We discuss corporate net zero pledges and the often underestimated complexities involved, the overall desirability of more engineers and more problem-solving thinking, the evolving power landscape, Chevron’s capabilities in lower carbon energy and technologies, America as an energy superpower and how to maintain that status, and much more. We had a great visit with Mike and can’t thank him enough for his time and thoughtfulness. He is an exceptional spokesman for sound energy thinking.
To start the show, Mike Bradley shared his thoughts on three key events this week. Regarding CERAWeek 2024 where Veriten is an industry partner (details here), he noted themes are focused on AI, electricity, energy transition, hydrogen and permitting, with AI and electricity being mentioned in just about every conversation. US power needs are being underestimated and the energy transition discussion seems to be turning much more pragmatic. NVIDIA introduced its newest processor (Blackwell) at their conference on Monday. Expectations for NVIDIA and tech stocks were extremely elevated heading into the conference. The third key event is Wednesday’s FOMC Meeting. Mike noted that it’s virtually guaranteed the FED will keep rates unchanged given recent inflation stats printed on the hot side. Markets will be focused on Chairman Powell’s comments which could provide a clue on the number of future rate cuts. On the commodity front, last week was the first weekly close for WTI above $80/bbl since November 2023. WTI trades at ~$83/bbl as US crude oil inventories declined last week and will be drawing in the weeks ahead. He also noted that Gunvor indicated this week that Ukrainian drone strikes have damaged ~600kbpd of Russian refineries, which has strengthened crude oil and product markets. WTI time spreads continue moving steeper into backwardation, and if WTI holds above its $80/bbl support, it could reverse extreme “bearish” oil trader sentiment. He ended by noting that energy as a percentage of the S&P 500 should increase given that energy transition conversation is turning much more pragmatic, that global e
It was our privilege today to welcome Paul Dabbar, CEO of Bohr Quantum Technology. In addition to his position at Bohr, Paul is a Senior Research Scholar and Distinguished Visiting Fellow at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, a Board Member of Dominion Energy, and a Contributor to the Wall Street Journal. Paul’s distinguished career in the energy sector spans several significant roles including his tenure as the Under Secretary for Science at the US Department of Energy from 2017 to 2021. Prior to that, he held senior finance and strategy roles at JP Morgan and he is also a nuclear marine officer and graduate of the US Naval Academy. We were delighted to visit with Paul.
Our discussion centered on a recent piece Paul wrote for the Hoover Institution entitled “US Energy Superpower Status and a New US Energy Diplomacy” (linked here). The report examines how US energy diplomacy should shift to a more positive and powerful tone given the country’s achievements in the industry in the past decade and its newfound status as the global energy superpower. In our conversation with Paul, we cover key themes from his report, the concept of an “all of the above” energy policy and the importance of balancing energy production, prices, emissions, and national security, the potential for collaboration between the US, Canada, and Norway, anticipated growth in electricity demand, strategies for developing countries in meeting their energy demand while reducing reliance on coal, and the benefits of the US partnering with other countries in offering both traditional energy resources and new technologies with lower carbon intensity. We discuss whether explicit carbon reduction goals are necessary, the effectiveness of innovation-led strategy, the government’s role in supporting energy innovation, national security concerns particularly with regards to importing EVs and other energy-related technologies, Paul’s perspective on reforming the IRA, the coordination of energy policy across various government agencies, and much more. It was a wide ranging and fascinating discussion. Thank you for joining, Paul!
Mike Bradley kicked us off by discussing the February CPI report, noting it was hotter than expected but had little impact on broader energy markets. Bitcoin and broader energy markets continue to be in a “risk-on-mode” driven by consensus of a soft-landing U.S. economic scenario and seem less focused on interest rates and more focused on AI/big tech euphoria. WTI continues to be relatively rangebound, crude oil time spreads have pulled back modestly but still remain in steep backwardation, and OPEC reiterated its previous 2024 demand growth forecast of 2.2mmbpd. In natural gas, prompt and the 12-month natural gas strip have pulled back modestly, U.S. natural gas storage this week increased to >30% above normal, and lower 48 dry gas production has decreased due to continued producer cutbacks. Mike also highlighted Shell’s upcoming Energy Transition Report, the UK’s allowance for new natural gas generation into the 2030s, and that data centers are desperate for power and could look at natural gas power generation as part of their power mix. He mentioned the EQT Corp and Equitran’s Midstream merger and suggested that U.S. natural gas demand estimates may be underestimated given data center and C&I growth. Arjun Murti built on the themes Mike raised and emphasized the need for a healthier energy evolution that aligns policies with the necessity of meeting unmet energy needs while addressing environmental concerns and the evolving role of traditional energy in power generation.
We hope you all enjoy the discussion as much as we did. Our best to you all!
Today we had the pleasure of welcoming back Jigar Shah, Director of the U.S. Department of Energy Loan Programs Office (LPO). Jigar joined the LPO in 2021 and is the former founder of SunEdison and former co-founder of Generate Capital. As you may know, the LPO is equipped with more than $400 billion in loans and loan guarantees to help deploy innovative clean energy, advanced transportation, and Tribal energy projects in the US that support a cleaner and stronger energy economy. With 205 active applications and an average of 2.1 new applications per week, they are busier than ever. We were thrilled to visit with Jigar for an insightful update on the LPO’s progress and preview of the LPO’s planned activities at CERAWeek.
In our discussion, we touch on growing electricity demand and the utility loan applications the LPO has received focused on demand flexibility, grid enhancement technologies, and virtual power plants. Jigar shares his perspective on increasing interest in geothermal, nuclear and next generation hydro projects, the cost of new energy infrastructure and the impact on electricity affordability, team developments at the LPO, carbon capture and sequestration projects, EPA regulations and their impact on energy plants (particularly coal plants), tech companies’ focus on securing sufficient power for their operations to meet their growing power demands (see link to AWS Talen story from this week here), and market dynamics in methane detection and reduction technologies. We discuss the critical importance of permitting reform and the LPO’s connectivity with permitting-related government offices, the Presidential election’s potential impact on the LPO, financing mechanisms and the LPO’s interest rates, and much more. Jigar is such a fun and upbeat guy and we always enjoy a visit with him. We also appreciate that he'll field any question we throw his way, especially our questions about the inner workings of Washington DC. Thank you, Jigar!
Mike Bradley started the show by noting that this week was a light economic week with the January JOLTS Job Openings report being most watched. On the broader equity market front, AI euphoria seemingly pushes equities to new highs every week, but this week has witnessed a bit of a pullback. WTI has pulled back marginally, but still trades at the high end of its 3-month trading range. OPEC extended its 2mmbpd of production cuts through Q2’24. Physical crude markets seem tight given WTI time spreads continue to trade in steep backwardation. The 12-month natural gas strip is trading up from $2.55/MMBtu to $2.85/MMBtu on news that EQT Corp has made a strategic decision to curtail ~1bcfpd of gross production through the end of March (link here). Over the last 2 weeks, lower 48 natural gas production has averaged ~2bcfpd lower than in prior weeks. On the utility sector front, he highlighted the staggering 5-year capex plans being laid out on electricity utility Q4 calls. He noted the massive YTD performance of a handful of nuclear levered electricity equities, which look to be getting rerated markedly higher (by generalist investors) due to a more robust long-term earnings growth profile and the increasing likelihood of securing lucrative long-term datacenter electricity deals. He also noted that in time, the utility sector could also be rerated higher as investors begin viewing them more as growth stocks. Jeff Tillery and Brett Rampal also joined and added their perspectives and inquiries to the discussion with Jigar.
For our COBT history buffs, today’s episode marks Jigar’s third guest appearance on COBT. He previously joined on Feb. 27, 2023 (episode linked
Today we were thrilled to welcome our good friend Pat Wood, CEO of Hunt Energy Network. Pat’s extensive career in power and energy includes serving as Chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and Chairman of the Public Utility Commission of Texas during the administration of President George W. Bush. Additionally, he has held several independent director and advisor roles in solar, power, and utility-related organizations. Pat is also a civil engineer Aggie who went and got a Harvard law degree. Perhaps that’s why he calls himself an armadillo – someone who likes the middle of the road! Under Pat’s leadership, Hunt Energy Network has deployed a portfolio of distributed power assets across Texas. The organization aims to reach a portfolio of 1,000 MWs of batteries and peaker generation attached to the ERCOT grid by 2026. It was our pleasure to host Pat and hear insights from his unique perspective as a former regulator turned industry executive.
Pat first provides background on the Hunt Energy Network, the organization’s focus on decentralized power solutions including battery deployment and peaker generation, and the role of gas peaker plants in the energy grid to meet sudden spikes in demand. Pat shares his perspective on the complexities and challenges of managing energy infrastructure, the transition from a regulated utility business to a market-driven approach during his tenure at the PUC, the historical context of power prices, the role of subsidies and ongoing debate surrounding their effectiveness, and the need for innovative thinking and proactive measures to address growing demand for electricity. We touch on market approaches to integrating new technologies into the energy sector, the importance of having a diverse portfolio of power-generating technologies to meet future demands, economic implications of energy policy decisions, the effectiveness of market-driven approaches versus government-led initiatives in shaping energy systems, investing in cybersecurity and grid resilience to protect against potential threats, and much more. Before we wrapped up, we talked about states and countries around the world and the building blocks of getting power policy right. Overall, Pat did exactly what we really needed today as he supplied plenty of optimism and humor in an area (power) lacking in both these days. For some additional power thinking, please click here for a chart Pat provided showing estimated US energy sources, consumption, and “lost energy” from 2021.
Mike Bradley kicked off the show by noting this week was a relatively light week for economic stats, with the PCE deflator release being the only real stat that traders seemed focused on. Broader markets continue to set new weekly highs but could lose some trading momentum in coming weeks given that Q4 earnings (especially AI and Big Tech) are essentially done. On the crude oil market front, he highlighted that WTI (~$79/bbl) is trading at the upper-end of its recent 3–4-month trading range despite large U.S. crude oil inventory builds from historically low seasonal refining runs, but that it will reverse in coming weeks. He noted that physical crude markets have tightened as WTI crude oil time spreads have moved into steep backwardation, and are now trading at levels last seen in October 2023, when WTI price was trading at ~$90/bbl. He flagged that nat gas prompt price has completely reversed gains post Chesapeake Energy’s production cut announcement last week and that the 12-month natural gas strip has rallied, since that announcement, on an expectation that 2024 lower-48 natural gas production will be several bcf per day lower heading into summer. In energy news, he noted energy sector Q4 reporting was essentially complete and also noted another mid-sized E&P merger announcement from last week. He wrapped by h
One of the issues that we have become fascinated with over the last couple of years is power: power availability, power costs, power reliability, growth in demand for power, and the overall complexity of our power systems. We’ve also become extremely interested in how these power issues are meaningfully affecting states, countries and industries. With all of that in mind, we read with particular interest recent publications from today’s COBT guest, Susan Shelley, Columnist and Member of the Editorial Board for the Southern California News Group. Susan covers local, state and national issues across eleven daily papers including the Los Angeles Daily News, the Orange County Register, the Riverside Press-Enterprise and the Long Beach Press-Telegram. Much of the energy transition discussion is around decarbonization and economic justice, extremely important and complicated topics. What is often missing is an examination of the costs of various decarbonization alternatives and the ways in which those choices could be hitting different segments of society. On today’s COBT, we greatly enjoyed discussing with Susan California’s power choices and talking about their costs and their debatable benefits.
As we talked to Susan, one thing we reflected on is that everyone loves California. It’s beautiful, it’s creative, it’s a huge part of the US economy and has been a historical driver of innovation from Hollywood to Silicon Valley. In our discussion, we touch on one of Susan’s recent articles entitled "Why California’s Electricity Is So Expensive" (linked here), the disconnect between the perceived benefits of green energy policies and the reality of high energy costs for Californians, and how Californians are reacting to rising energy costs, with some leaving the state due to affordability issues. We discuss California’s political landscape and recent legislation, the solar energy market and how fixed charges for electricity may disincentivize solar investment among residents, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) and the California Independent System Operator (CAISO), leaders in the environmental community, utility and infrastructure management, and advocacy for transparency regarding the costs of climate policies. With California planning to outlaw sales of new combustion engine cars by 2035 and to be fully powered by renewable energy by 2045, we reflected on whether California is "leading or lagging" when it comes to power choices. We also took a minute to ask Susan for her outlook for California in ten years. Overall, we are hopeful that California will find a better balance between hitting climate goals and providing affordable and reliable energy and power for their residents and their industry. The current path doesn’t feel sustainable.
To kick us off, Mike Bradley noted this coming week would be notably lighter on economic stats versus last week which saw hotter than expected CPI & PPI prints. On the broader equity market front, he flagged that trading this week would be dominated by quarterly results from Nvidia (NVDA), which likely set the tone for broader markets, the tech sector, and AI levered equities. He highlighted that WTI price increased to the upper end of its 3-month trading range and that DOE inventory stats in the coming weeks likely show continued large crude oil builds on historically low refining runs but will likely then reverse. He noted prompt price has declined to ~$1.55/M and the 12-month strip to ~$2.40/M and further noted that most natural gas E&Ps break-even price is above the current strip, and as such, have lowered their 2024 capex guidance. This coming week will be a heavy Q4 reporting week for E&Ps and Oil Service, and investors will be closely monitoring 2024 capex plans. He wrapped by highlighting Intuiti
Today we had the pleasure of hosting Fred Hutchison, President and CEO of LNG Allies, for a comprehensive discussion on an important and timely topic, LNG. Fred founded LNG Allies in 2014 and is a leading spokesman for the US LNG export industry with over four decades of experience in government and public relations. LNG Allies is an independent, non-profit association focused on advancing the interests of the US LNG industry and promoting the benefits of LNG exports. We were thrilled to visit with Fred.
We covered a lot of territory in our conversation starting with background on the formation of LNG Allies, the significant shift in the US from being an importer to becoming the world’s largest exporter of LNG in a relatively short period, gratitude from European countries towards the US for supplying LNG in the post Ukraine invasion energy crunch, the ongoing debate about natural gas as a lower impact fuel and its role in the energy transition, the impact of recent geopolitical events and energy prices on energy security and industrial activity, and potential motivations and implications behind the Biden Administration’s pause on LNG approvals. We touch on the shift in resistance to long-term LNG contracts, opposition and lobbying against LNG exports, global trust in the US as a supplier and concerns about reliability with changing administrations, the potential for LNG growth in other countries, the impact of US policy decisions on energy supply, and concern with the lack of understanding among policymakers about energy issues. Fred shares his perspective on the diverse export market for LNG, emerging markets in future LNG demand, challenges faced by countries in accessing financing for LNG projects due to credit rating issues, and much more. We ended by asking Fred for his view on the state of journalism and public debate as a writer himself. It was a wide-ranging and in-depth conversation and we can’t thank Fred enough for sharing his time and thoughts with us.
In our discussion, you will hear we reference a few items. The IEEJ’s January 2024 report is linked here and the Wall Street Journal op-ed regarding the IEA is linked here. For additional LNG reading, the LNG Allies’ report on US LNG projects and contracts as of February 3rd is linked here and a recent letter to Congress on the LNG Moratorium is linked here.
Mike Bradley kicked us off by sharing key economic, equity market, commodity and energy sector thoughts. On the economic front, January CPI printed hotter than expected, pushing the 10-year yield bond up and calling into question the pace of future FED rate cuts. On the broader equity market front, even though the hotter than expected CPI pushed the DJIA down over 500 points, he stressed that market volatility remains historically low and investor sentiment remains bullish. On the commodity market front, WTI price surged to ~$78/bbl. (+$5/bbl. on the week) which is the upper end of its 3-month trading range. He noted several recent crosscurrents effecting crude oil markets and highlighted that U.S. natural gas prompt price plunged to ~$1.65/MMBtu (lowest price level since Covid in 2020 and prior to that 1999) and noted that the 12-month strip traded down to ~$2.50/MMBtu, which is below “most” U.S. natural gas E&Ps break-even price. On the traditional energy sector front, he highlighted this week’s $26 billion merger deal between Diamondback Energy and Endeavor Energy, w
Today we had the very interesting opportunity to visit with Ernest Scheyder, Senior Correspondent at Thomson Reuters and author of the newly released book entitled "The War Below: Lithium, Copper, and the Global Battle to Power Our Lives." The book was officially published on January 30th and examines the multifaceted world of metals, mining, and processing with insights from investors, miners, landowners, environmentalists, and politicians. Ernie provided a balanced perspective in telling this complex story and has an extensive background covering both shale in its heyday and now critical minerals/mining for Reuters. As you will hear, our whole team thoroughly enjoyed the book and the discussion.
Our session with Ernie spanned the themes and insights in his book including the challenges and controversies surrounding the extraction of critical minerals, the complexity of mining operations, environmental concerns, community opposition, historical events and their implications for present-day mining projects, and the varying perspectives on greenfield versus brownfield mining. We touch on the lack of certainty in long-term projects across different administrations and various departments in the US, projects facing uncertainty with permitting issues, associated issues with outsourcing processing to countries like China, the tough choices the US will have to face regarding resource extraction to ensure national security, the potential for armed conflicts over critical minerals, and developing countries’ desire to develop their own supply chains. Ernie also shares his experiences with environmental groups and conservationists of all types, efforts by the mining industry to establish global standards (for additional reading on "IRMA" – the Initiative for Responsible Mining Assurance, click here), growing consumer interest in responsibly sourced materials, initial feedback Ernie has received on the book, and his overall goal to maintain a neutral viewpoint in the book. We thoroughly enjoyed the conversation!
To start the show, Mike Bradley flagged the recent surge in 10-year bond yields due to hotter-than expected recent job stats, which is making traders question the consensus expectation for interest cuts in March. From an equity markets perspective, broader equity indices continue hitting all-time highs with volatility trading near historic lows. On the commodity front, global crude oil prices declined ~$4/bbl. over the last week, but in general remain directionless due to varying global crosscurrents. On the U.S. natural gas front, natural gas traded briefly below $2.00/MMBtu and investors seem to be in little rush to be stepping into natural gas levered equities today but are sniffing around for a 2025 gas-levered trade. From an energy equity market perspective, he indicated that most oil majors have reported solid Q4 results, with one of the bigger themes coming from Euro majors being a modest pivot away from alternative energy spending and favoring increasing shareholder returns. He wrapped by highlighting the boom/bust for the lithium industry, with lithium prices down ~80% from its Nov. ’22 peak and with many lithium equities over the last year down >70%. Todd Scruggs emphasized the complexity involved in the energy transition by noting a recent announcement from Germany to commission 10 GW of new natural gas-fired power plants with the expectation of converting them to hydrogen fuel in the future (story linked here), Germany’s intention to introduce a capacity market feature to their power market, and the overall projected surge in demand for critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, copper, silver, and rare earths.
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For today’s discussion we were delighted to welcome back our good friend Robert Bryce. Robert is the author of six books (his most recent being "A Question of Power: Electricity and the Wealth of Nations"), host of the Power Hungry podcast, and a former journalist with more than 30 years of experience reporting on the energy sector. He is a frequent contributor to the energy discussion and his Substack is linked here. Robert has just released his latest docuseries focused on power titled "Juice: Power, Politics, and the Grid" (available to watch here). The series officially debuts today, January 31st, and we were thrilled to visit with Robert to discuss the vitally important examination this docuseries brings to light around the state of power grids both domestically and internationally.
"Juice: Power, Politics, and the Grid" is a five-part docuseries with 20-minute episodes titled "Texas Blackout," "Undermined by Enron," "Green Dreams," "Nuclear Renaissance," and "Industrial Cathedrals." In our conversation with Robert, we touch on Canada’s recent nuclear power developments, the challenges and legacy of Enron and Enron-type thinking in today’s electricity market, the importance of government involvement in supporting nuclear energy, the consequence of electricity being treated as a commodity rather than a service, and the crucial role of reliability in the grid. Robert shares his perspective on the impact of permitting delays, regulatory issues and land use conflicts, the difficulties of building infrastructure, including high voltage transmission lines, the need for long-term bipartisan support for nuclear energy, and how the "anti-industry industry" affects energy policy. We also discuss policy as a reliability risk, industrial consumers (i.e. Dow, Microsoft) becoming more interested in nuclear (see recent Microsoft news here), NGO influence, the need for balanced priorities among decarbonization, affordability and reliability, and more. We want to congratulate Robert for the launch of "Juice: Power, Politics, and the Grid" and for his contributions to help change the conversation. It was a fantastic discussion!
To kick us off, Mike Bradley highlighted the upcoming FOMC meeting, continued bullish equity market sentiment, rebound in crude oil prices, and broadening out of Q4 energy subsector reporting in the coming weeks. Wednesday’s FOMC Rate Decision meeting looms large, with most expecting the FED will continue to pause interest rates. Equity volatility is still very low and equity market sentiment remains very bullish. On the commodity front, global crude oil prices continue to rise and the biggest surprise for crude oil markets this week was Saudi Aramco’s decision not to proceed with plans to increase their maximum sustainable capacity up to 13mmbpd, which weighed heavily on the consensus positive sentiment towards internationally levered oil service equities. Brett Rampal flagged Canada’s recent announcement to refurbish the Pickering nuclear plant, extending its operational life by several decades, and showcasing the ability of groups, advocates and the nuclear industry to execute large-scale refurbishment projects efficiently.
As mentioned, Robert previously joined COBT on Jan. 5, 2021 (episode linked here) and first on Aug. 11, 2020 (episode linked here). Our COBT episode with Meredith Angwin, author of "Shorting the Grid," is linked here from June 8, 2022.
As is almost always the case, this past week was a busy one with many things happening i
We have been intrigued by some of the news coming out of the World Economic Forum (i.e. Davos) and have been on the lookout for someone who could give us an objective, independent summary and assessment of the gathering. We were elated to connect with our special friend Dr. Dan Yergin for such a discussion. While impossible to succinctly summarize his achievements and contributions to the energy industry, Dan is the Vice Chairman of S&P Global, the Chairman of CERAWeek, and the author of several books, with his most recent being "The New Map." He is a Pulitzer prize-winner and a highly esteemed energy expert. It was our pleasure to discuss Dan’s key takeaways from the event as well as preview this year’s CERAWeek Conference.
We covered a lot of territory in our conversation starting with Dan’s impressions of Davos and the role of major international conferences (Davos, COP, etc.), the unique role of the Founder and Chairman of the World Economic Forum Professor Klaus Schwab (bio linked here), this year’s top theme, and geopolitical concerns including proxy wars, disruptions in the Middle East, and Red Sea disruption affecting oil tankers. Dan shares his perspective on oil market dynamics, OPEC+ cohesion and oil demand projections for 2024, Russian production resilience despite international service companies pulling out of the country, global energy forecasts and the gap between IEA and OPEC projections, Argentine President Javier Milei’s impactful speech (linked here), power/electricity demand growth, copper and mining challenges, and more. We also discuss the CERAWeek Conference taking place from March 18 – 22 in Houston and how the conference’s theme of "Multidimensional Energy Transition: Markets, Climate, Technology and Geopolitics" will translate across sessions such as LNG, geopolitical complexities, and the changing global environment. Dan never disappoints and we had a great time visiting with him (as usual!).
Mike Bradley kicked off the show by highlighting recent bullish equity market sentiment, his current energy commodity thoughts, and key things to focus on as the energy sector ramps up Q4 reporting over the coming weeks. On the equity market front, he remains concerned that equity volatility is very low and equity market sentiment is very bullish. Broader equity markets like the Nasdaq and S&P 500 continue making all-time highs due to continued optimism with AI and large-cap technology stocks, while smaller indices like the Russell 2000 continue to trade well below their all-time highs, therefore a narrow market breadth. Global crude oil prices have caught a bid in recent weeks (WTI at ~$75/bbl). Both Brent and WTI crude oil time spreads have moved back into backwardation, for the first time since November, which typically signals a tighter physical market, and could be related to frigid U.S. temperatures. U.S. natural gas prices plunged by ~$1.00/MMBtu over the last week, which has pushed natural gas price to ~$2.40/MMBtu. On the energy sector front, Q4 energy sector reporting has begun with the Big3 oil service companies reporting and over the next couple of weeks, energy sector reporting will broaden out to a handful of NAM land rig/frac companies, E&Ps, midstream, oil majors and refiners, all of which should provide a clearer picture of the 2024 classic energy landscape. For a more complete list of scheduled earnings in the energy and energy-related world in the next week, click here.
For our COBT history buffs, today marks Dan’s fourth appearance on COBT. His previous episodes include Feb. 15, 2023 (linked here), Feb. 23, 2022 (
Today we had the pleasure of hosting Rob Gramlich, Founder and President of Grid Strategies. Rob previously oversaw transmission and power market policy for the American Wind Energy Association as SVP and Interim CEO, served as Economic Advisor to FERC Chairman Pat Wood III, and was Senior Economist at PJM Interconnection. Grid Strategies is a power consulting firm headquartered in Washington, D.C. that helps their clients advance grid integration solutions. Given the recent winter weather much of the US and Canada is experiencing, this was a particularly timely discussion and we were thrilled to hear Rob’s insight on power demand growth, infrastructure buildout, cost, and reliability.
Our discussion with Rob focused on a report Grid Strategies recently published titled “The Era of Flat Power Demand is Over” (linked here). Rob first shares background on the Grid Strategies team and the inspiration behind writing the report. We cover aspects from the report including the need for the power industry as well as legislators and regulators to acknowledge sharply increased demand forecasts and the need for action, factors contributing to increased power demand, including data centers and AI-driven technologies, the influential players in Washington contributing to shaping policies, regions with notable growth, reliability and resource adequacy, and the need for large-scale robust transmission planning. Rob shares his thoughts on regional differences in power markets and some of the unique market designs, concerns about supply and demand challenges and its effect on rising costs, changing dynamics in the power industry and the power “basketball team” lineup, global comparisons, behind-the-fence power generation, and more. Thank you, Rob, for sharing your insights with us all! We learned a lot.
Power has undoubtedly become such an important issue and a topic to which we have dedicated several episodes. The most recent episodes include John Bear from MISO (linked here) and Jim Robb with NERC (linked here). Last year, we also visited with ERCOT (linked here). You may remember that in the ERCOT show, we called on our friends at Orennia to provide analytics around Texas power. For today’s discussion, the team at Orennia provided additional data on summer and winter Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC) for solar and wind and cumulative coal retirements up to 2040 (linked here).
To kick us off, Mike Bradley highlighted recent key issues across the regulatory, commodity market and energy/electricity space. On the regulatory front, the U.S. Supreme Court will be hearing arguments this week relating to the historical Chevron Deference decision; a decision to reverse could have huge implications for highly regulated industries, like the energy industry, as power to regulate could shift away from Alphabet-Letter Agencies (like the EPA and others). On the commodity front, WTI oil price continues to be stuck in a bit of a trading range (low-$70s/bbl) given that Red Sea ship rerouting/growing Middle East conflict is getting countered by global crude oil S/D that looks modestly oversupplied in Q1’24 without additional OPEC+ production cuts. He noted that U.S natural gas prices have completely round-tripped this week (down $0.30-$0.35/MMBtu to <$3.00/MMBtu) and further noted that in recent days, U.S. natural gas production has plunged (~103bcfpd last week to a low of ~93bcfpd on Monday and now stands at ~97bcfpd) mostly d
Today was a big one – the first regular COBT of the year, and also the second anniversary of Veriten. Accordingly, we thought about something that would be truly special to mark the occasion and reached back for two COBT All-Stars… on the same show!
Today’s episode features two great friends: Dr. Lars Schernikau, energy economist, entrepreneur, commodity trader, strategic advisor, and the author of “The Unpopular Truth about Electricity and the Future of Energy” AND Rob West, Founder and Lead Analyst at Thunder Said Energy (TSE). Rob started TSE in 2019 and provides unique and thought-provoking analysis on energy transition research and technologies. Lars patched in from Dubai and Rob from Tallinn. What a delight it was to have this much firepower in the same discussion.
Our COBT buffs may recall Lars previously appeared on COBT in March of 2023 (linked here). For Rob, today’s episode marks his fourth appearance on the show; he most recently joined in July 2023 (linked here), prior to that in November 2022 (linked here), and first in January 2022 (linked here). We simply thought these two gentlemen together would be perfect for global energy 2023 reflection and 2024 speculation and vision. We were not disappointed!
To start the discussion, we ask Rob and Lars for their view on the most significant macro factors for the upcoming year. Rob discusses the impact of higher interest rates and puts particular focus on the volatility of today’s energy systems. Lars added his concern with our growing energy inefficiency and what that means for costs. Volatility, energy inefficiency, rising costs and government/corporate/investor decision-making wove in and out throughout our conversation today. We touch on weather’s contribution to energy production volatility, recent warm weather and how it may be masking underlying problems, overall trends in European energy sentiment, China’s self-interested energy policies and their control of raw materials, Rob’s recent work on Harmonics, the current state of energy forecasting and the lack of transparency around models, last week’s appearance by Senator John Kennedy (episode linked here) and much more. We were sorry the discussion had to end and wrapped up by asking everyone for the number one thing they are focused on for 2024 (in Bari Weiss rapid-fire style). We can’t thank Lars and Rob enough for joining. We are honored to call them friends and appreciate all the work they are both doing to make energy, the environment, the inherent trade-offs, and decarbonization broadly more understandable.
Mike Bradley kicked us off by discussing key themes for 2024. Economically, he highlighted that markets are expecting the FED will engineer a soft landing and cut interest rates beginning in Q1. He noted this scenario was consensus and that this week’s CPI and PPI prints could be the first true test of this “goldilocks” thesis. From a commodity standpoint, he noted that analyst’s 2024 commodity forecasts are much higher than the 2024 commodity futures curve, indicating 2024 estimates may be adjusted lower and could result in some energy equity headwinds in Q1’24. US natural gas production surprised in 2023, and investors are asking when will natural gas-levered E&Ps begin ramping up activity in anticipation of a 2025 LNG ramp. From a crude production standpoint, he flagged that one of the biggest surprises in 2023 was that U.S. crude oil production growth nearly doubled expectations and that in turn raises qu
We hope you all had a fantastic holiday season and that you are excited about the New Year! We had a special guest join us yesterday to kick off 2024. We have been lucky enough to get to know a number of Senators, Governors and Congressional Representatives over the past few years. One that we have been getting to know better recently is Senator John Kennedy of Louisiana. Sharp, informed, well read, very funny, and representing a very important energy and industrial state, Senator Kennedy never disappoints when any public policy matter is up for thoughtful debate. We felt particularly lucky he took some time to brainstorm the coming year with us in this Special Edition COBT.
As you will hear, Mike Bradley, Jeff Tillery and I explored a broad range of topics with the Senator including domestic and international challenges facing the United States in 2024, the divide in Washington regarding climate issues, Senator Kennedy’s stance on climate change, the role of the government and private sector, the erosion of public confidence in institutions, and potential strategies for restoring that confidence. We also touch on the importance of leadership and transparent communication, power demand growth and infrastructure challenges, and the need to improve the understanding of energy-related issues in Washington. Senator Kennedy shares his perspective on the significance of the United States projecting strength and power and his optimistic outlook on American resilience in overcoming challenges. We are very grateful to Senator Kennedy for sharing his time and valuable insights with us all.
Speaking of kicking off the New Year, we attended the Goldman Sachs Energy, CleanTech and Utilities Conference in Miami this week (agenda linked here). Arjun Murti spoke on a panel addressing “Where Are We in the Commodities Cycle?” I am biased but I thought he did a great job discussing why energy is so important globally, why energy broadly is an attractive sector, and why oil and gas peak demand is nearly impossible to predict. Overall, we saw many friends old and new, and increasingly perceive that Veriten’s mission of “truth in energy” is gaining more visibility and support. Special thanks to Neil Mehta and the entire Goldman Sachs research team for having us and congratulations to them on a great kickoff to the year.
We will return next week with the regular COBT schedule. We have a very fun “2-year Veriten Anniversary” show planned!
Again, Happy 2024 and thank you for your friendship and support!
Today we were thrilled to visit with Brian Lee, Vice President and Head of US Clean Technology Research at Goldman Sachs, for 2023’s final COBT episode. Brian has been with the firm since 2011 and offers a unique vantage point with his experience covering cleantech. Recently, Brian and his team released their 2024 Americas Clean Technology Outlook (linked here). With 2023 coming to a close, it was fantastic to hear Brian’s end of year reflections as well as observations on the space heading into 2024.
Goldman Sachs will kick off the New Year in Miami, Florida with their flagship Energy, CleanTech and Utilities Conference starting on January 3rd (agenda linked here). Veriten is excited to be attending. In our conversation with Brian, we discuss Goldman’s approach to cleantech as part of the broader energy team, the cyclical nature of the sector, the gyrations of the last few years, the deeper appreciation investors are now gaining for the complexities of clean energy business models, the unique mix of stocks Brian and his team cover, the global investor footprint, current investor sentiment, and of course how rising interest ratees have greatly impacted his coverage group. Brian also shares his perspective on the total addressable market for solar including residential and utility-scale solar, residential solar market potential, policy impacts on solar, trends in solar energy, the latest IRA detailed guidance from the US Treasury, the outlook for more of such detail, and much more. With revised ratings out earlier this week, we also got Brian to share his specific stock views going into next year. Time flew as we were having fun! We ended with a “lightning round” and asked Brian to share his quick thoughts on China, the water space, and surging power demand growth to close out our conversation. It was a meaty and fantastic discussion. Thank you Brian!
Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting year-to-date performance for bonds, commodities and equities. He noted the 10-year U.S. government bond yield began the year trading at 3.9%, peaked at ~5.0%, and has round-tripped back down to 3.9%, mostly because the rate of inflation has been cut in half and expectations that the FED could aggressively begin cutting interest rates beginning in March 2024. WTI price began the year trading at ~$80/bbl, peaked at ~$94/bbl and is now trading at ~$74/bbl. U.S. oil production in 2023 has grown by ~1mmbpd which has been offset by OPEC cuts of ~1mmbpd. U.S. natural gas began the year trading at ~$4.50/MMBtu and is now trading at ~2.50/MMBtu, mostly due to warm early winter weather, above average natural gas storage levels, and U.S. natural gas production that has grown ~5bcfpd in 2023. He highlighted that broader equity markets posted a stellar year with the S&P 500 up ~25% and the Nasdaq up ~55%, while the energy sector posted just a modest gain for the year. The best performing subsectors in 2023 on a "total return" basis were Nuclear (+60%), Coal (+35%) & Refiners (+20%), with the worst being Renewables (-25%) & Batteries/Solar (-30%). He flagged reasons why the Illinois Commerce Commission "rejected" a multi-year integrated grid plan from two key State electric utilities and highlighted the $15B merger agreement between Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel, further noting that it seems to be facing early opposition from both members of Congress and Unions and could face challenges from CFIUS (foreign investment in the U.S.). Arjun Murti shared a few of his reflections from 2023 including the disparities in energy access worldwide and the massive amount of energy demand 7-8 billion people will need, the continuing significance of energy as a
We had a fantastic session today with Amy Roma, Partner and Global Energy Practice Leader at Hogan Lovells. Amy has served at Hogan Lovells since 2007 and as you will hear, her work focuses on the commercial nuclear energy industry. Her efforts have earned her recognition as one of the Top 10 most innovative lawyers in North America by the Financial Times and the National Law Journal named her one of the most impactful minds at the "intersection of energy and the environment." Amy is freshly back from COP 28 and we covered a broad range of topics in today’s discussion centered on Amy’s nuclear expertise and key themes from her firsthand experience at the conference.
In our discussion, we begin by exploring her expectations for this year’s COP. Amy shares insights on her interactions with OPEC, her motivation to attend COP 28 following a disappointing COP 26, and the shift she has seen towards more serious considerations of decarbonization, energy affordability, reliability, and security. We discuss the business case for nuclear energy, unique financing models to mitigate risks, the challenges of establishing a secure fuel supply chain, Amy’s role and where she spends most of her time, and the team and expertise at Hogan Lovells. We touch on the pace of progress around nuclear in the United States compared to internationally, the strategic importance for the US to be a leader in the global nuclear market, and some of the new interest in nuclear Amy has seen from industrial participants. We end with Amy’s thoughts on what the nuclear landscape might look like in ten years. Thank you, Amy, for joining and sharing your insights with us all!
Mike Bradley kicked us off by discussing bond yields and the Wednesday FED meeting. He noted WTI price weakness is mostly due to the same issues that have plagued it for the last several weeks and further noted the plunge in U.S. natural gas from early-November levels given above-average U.S. storage levels and U.S. production that has recently averaged ~2-3bcfd higher than previous months. He highlighted that broader equity markets are trading back to near March 2022 levels due to the recent pullback in interest rates and a belief that the FED will pull off a "soft-landing" for the U.S. economy. He noted that the COP28 conference had all but concluded but that diplomats were still working after-hours to craft fossil fuel "wording" for their final official communique. He noted that "phase down" wording is important for some COP28 delegates but for all intents and purposes, it’s less important for most countries that will do what’s ultimately best for their own citizens. He wrapped by highlighting that Ford is reducing their 2024 F-150 Lighting (EV) production, and that it was a positive development for their shareholders as it means less future capex, less EV losses, more FCF and higher ROCE employed. Jeff Tillery and Brett Rampal also joined today’s session and added their perspective and questions to the mix with Amy.
Thanks to you all for your support and friendship!
Today we were very fortunate to host Fernando Oris de Roa for an insightful discussion on Argentina and the recent dramatic election result there. Fernando served as the Ambassador of Argentina to the United States in 2018 and 2019 is currently an Independent Director of Allkem. He is an accomplished entrepreneur and business leader in Argentina and earned his MPA from the Harvard Kennedy School. With the country’s recent election of political newcomer Javier Milei as President, we were thrilled to visit with Fernando and explore the implications of the new presidency for Argentina and Latin America at large.
Fernando first shares his perspective on the political landscape in Argentina, the significance of Milei’s win, the libertarian philosophies Milei will bring to office, and reactions within the Argentine business community. We explore Milei’s announced and other potential key players in a new government, the United States’s cautiously supportive stance thus far, the nation’s vast energy and economic opportunities, the issue of dollarization, geopolitical considerations with neighboring countries, and China’s growing influence in Latin America. We also discuss the current investment climate in Argentina, the potential for expansion in the mining sector, Fernando’s recommended short-term goals for the nation, including stabilizing inflation, the potential for sweeping budget cuts to reduce the size of government, and much more. In our conversation with Fernando, we began to wonder if a good analogy to Milei’s win is Lech Walesa in Poland or Vaclev Havel in Czechoslovakia, instead of the often repeated “Trump of Argentina” comparison. It’s perhaps too early to tell but a rejection of socialism and government control has clearly happened. We ended by asking Fernando for his ten-year view for Argentina. It was an insightful discussion and we greatly appreciated hearing his insights.
Mike Bradley kicked us off by indicating that 10-year bond yields plunged ~20bps and are now trading at a 3-month low of 4.2%. He noted that bond traders are betting the FED is done hiking rates and could soon be cutting due to a growing consensus of a U.S. “soft landing.” He highlighted a couple of rumblings stemming from the COP 28 conference and noted pleas from some more vocal individuals on a more aggressive phase out of coal & other fossil fuels, on the other hand, there was also constructive dialogue for a more aggressive nuclear buildout and more stringent methane monitoring. He highlighted that broader equity markets continue to trade sideways, are technically overbought (post a 10% rally off October lows) and that near-term trading caution is warranted. He highlighted that WTI price traded down to ~$72/bbl. (-$2-$3/bbl.) this week and really needs to hold technical support levels of $72.50/bbl. He further noted that crude price weakness is due both to CTA contract liquidation and physical weakness, which has pushed crude curves into contango from long-held backwardation. He also discussed that the recent OPEC+ meeting concluded with Russia/Saudi extending 1.3mmbpd of cuts, a handful of OPEC+ members agreeing to a 0.9mmbpd “voluntary” cuts through Q1’24, but that traders also remain unconvinced for most of these voluntary OPEC+ cuts, which has pushed crude traders into “show me” mode. He rounded out by highlighting Javier Milei’s win of the Argentinian Presidency rallied the Argentinian stock market by 40% on early optimism that he might contain runaway inflation and further open up the oil & gas and mining industries. Jeff Tillery also joined for the exciting discussion with Fernando.
Fernando was a fantastic guest and we hope you enjoy the conversation as much as we did. Our best to you all. Tomorrow evening marks the start of Hanukkah… so a “Happy Hanukkah” to everyone just a bit early.
Today we had the pleasure of hosting David Whitehouse, CEO of Offshore Energies UK (OEUK), for a comprehensive discussion on UK and North Sea energy. David joined OEUK in January of this year and previously held senior roles at CNR International UK and Shell, working on projects from deepwater frontier developments in the Gulf of Mexico to managing mature assets in the UK’s North Sea. As you will hear, David is pursuing a Master of Engineering in Renewable Engineering to complement his Ph.D. in Chemistry. OEUK is the leading trade association for the UK’s integrated offshore energy industry and their membership boasts over 400 organizations in offshore oil, gas, carbon capture and storage, wind, and hydrogen. We were thrilled to visit with David.
In our conversation, David first shares background on OEUK’s 50-year history, its member companies, and the types of support they offer. We discuss the dynamic energy landscape in the North Sea and Europe, the UK’s energy status including climate goals, energy security, the cost of energy, and the public’s increased awareness of the importance of producing energy domestically. David touches on the UK’s economic challenges, the UK’s energy production, challenges faced by the industry, including recent windfall taxes that have led to a pullback in investments by operators in the North Sea, the potential impact of expensive energy on the industrial base, and the crucial role of reliable and affordable energy in successful economies. We explore the growth of offshore wind production, plans for carbon capture and storage projects, and the importance of continued investment in oil and gas to support the transition. We also ask David for his views on societal acceptance of the oil and gas sector in the UK, Brexit’s impact on energy, government involvement and policies, infrastructure challenges, electricity demand, and the future workforce. The slides from today’s discussion are linked here. It was a thought-provoking and wide-ranging conversation and we greatly appreciate David for sharing his insights and time.
Mike Bradley kicked us off by discussing that the upcoming week’s equity market trading may be dominated by trading churn, lacking significant economic data and an end to Q3 earnings reporting. He flagged that commodity and energy equity traders are particularly focused on the November 30th OPEC meeting, especially after being delayed from last weekend. He noted that several issues will be topical at the OPEC meeting this week: first, OPEC members (Angola & Nigeria = 2.6mmbpd of combined production) have been considered the main reason for the pushback in the OPEC meeting as both members appear to be angling for higher individual production baselines in 2024. Second, it’s consensus that Russia & Saudi will extend 1.3mmbpd of production cuts though Q1’24. Finally, there doesn’t appear to be any real consensus that additional cuts will be forthcoming, much less production cuts of size, because it would only provide additional price cover for non-OPEC producers. He also highlighted that even though 2023 global demand growth was substantial, what was also substantial was 2023 global oil production growth of ~2.5mmbpd, which was much higher than expected due to the lack of Iranian sanction enforcement (~600-700kbpd), higher than expected U.S. production growth (1.2mmbpd vs early ’23 consensus of 0.7mmbpd) and continued growth from non-OPEC countries (Brazil & Guyana). He wrapped by noting that crude oil prices in 2024 could prove much more volatile, and that OPEC’s ability to effectively manage oil markets in 2024 could be much more challenged, given that global demand growth may be slowing, and non-OPEC production will still be growing. Arjun Murti added his thoughts on the IEA’s recent comments that t
We’re so pleased today to be able to bring you what is now the fourth in a series of COBT Thanksgiving episodes. When we think about the joys of Thanksgiving Day, it’s striking how many of those things are connected to energy. The energy to warm our homes, to cook our food, to help our families fly and drive to see us, to power everything from the TV to the refrigerator, etc. The list goes on and on. What’s always struck us is that not only is energy needed for this great holiday, but so many of the people who make our energy possible are actually working on Thanksgiving Day. We love highlighting the hardworking men and women in energy who make this all possible.
Our previous Thanksgiving-focused COBT episodes have included:
- Thanksgiving 2022 | Episode Linked Here Featuring energy workers in oilfield equipment and services
- Thanksgiving 2021 | Episode Linked Here Featuring energy workers in power plants, fracking, and LNG
- Thanksgiving 2020 | Episode Linked Here Featuring energy workers on rigs, at a refinery, fracking, and monitoring pipelines
This year, as we were thinking about difficult jobs in the industry, we thought about offshore drilling rigs. We reached out to the team at Transocean and their team helped make today’s episode possible.
Joining us for COBT from Transocean’s Deepwater Atlas drillship are Tyler Riley, Captain, Jeff Bruno (“Bruno”), Drilling Superintendent, Dennis Walton, Senior Subsea Supervisor, and David Galatenau, Driller in Training. They literally joined us from five thousand feet of water in the Gulf of Mexico.
Captain Riley first provides fascinating background on the 130+ hardworking men and women on the ship, highlighting their work schedule, lifestyle, and team dynamics, and also provides background on the drillship. As you’ll hear, the Deepwater Atlas is one of only two 8th generation drillships in the world and has 20,000 psi well control capabilities and a 3.4 million pound hoisting capacity. Bruno and Dennis each share thoughts about their roles and their respective teams, discuss the support and camaraderie they share, and even tell us some good fishing stories. David is a recent graduate from Texas Tech and is a participant in Transocean’s accelerated program to become a fully trained driller. He also shares his perspective as a young, talented person interested and passionate about an energy career.
Before letting the guys get back to work, we of course ask the team about their plans for Thanksgiving Day (including the menu). Each of the guys also gives a shoutout to their loved ones and to their companions also working on Thanksgiving Day. We are so very thankful to the men and women of the Deepwater Atlas and hope everyone on the ship sees this COBT in their honor!
Mike Bradley kicked us off today by highlighting that broader equity market indices continue to rally and are up over 10% from late October lows as they continue taking their trading cue from lower bond yields. He noted that broader equity markets are technically overbought and possess some near-term trading risk. He flagged the surprising Argentinian Presidency election win last weekend by Javier Milei, which initially rallied the Argentinian MERVAL Index by 8% (total of 20% since Friday), and shares of YPF by over 40%. He discussed that crude oil markets are laser focused on the OPEC meeting this weekend and that crude oil prices have caught a bit of a bid this week due to growing optimism that OPEC will not only extend 1mmbpd of production cuts through Q1’24 but also increase the level of production cuts. He al
We are pleased to share with you a unique and special COBT episode. Late last week, The KBH Energy Center in partnership with Vinson & Elkins and Veriten, hosted a discussion in Houston featuring Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison and Secretary Dan Brouillette. Senator Hutchison is a Founding Member of The KBH Energy Center and most recently served as the US Ambassador to NATO following a distinguished career spanning both the public and private sectors. Secretary Brouillette is an Executive Council Member for The KBH Energy Center, the President and CEO of Edison Electric Institute (EEI) and former president of Sempra Infrastructure. He is a respected leader in the energy, finance and automotive sectors and also served as the Secretary of Energy. The combined extensive experience of Senator Hutchison and Secretary Brouillette in geopolitics and energy laid the groundwork for a wide-ranging and fascinating discussion. We were thrilled to moderate this unique COBT discussion in front of a live audience at Vinson & Elkins’s offices.
Senator Hutchison first shares the unique features of the KBH Energy Center including its focus on traditional oil and gas as well as emerging technologies and its multidisciplinary nature with involvement from the business, law and engineering departments at the University of Texas. We discuss the paramount importance of energy security for America, the state of energy policy, geopolitical considerations with Ukraine and Israel, and the importance of American leadership, especially in organizations like NATO. As you’ll hear, Senator Hutchison recently wrote an article for the Atlantic Council that focused on the immediate need for stronger and more deliberate American leadership (linked here).
Secretary Brouillette touches on the complexities of the energy transition, advancements in drilling technology and battery storage, the role of natural gas, power demand considerations, and economic challenges the US faces, including its stunning national debt. In our conversation, we also touch on future plans for The KBH Energy Center, the importance of involving young people in discussions about energy and the exciting opportunities they’ll have to shape the industry.
In this unique COBT, the fundamental importance of energy to everything we care about as a society was a driving theme. Senator Hutchison and Secretary Brouillette have both made significant contributions to energy policy and the industry and it was both an honor and super thought-provoking to get their perspectives on today’s world. There are some serious issues for us all to be considering.
We want to thank our friends at the KBH Energy Center and V&E for including us in the discussion and hope you find it as interesting as we did!
We have been paying a lot of attention to and thinking a lot about power, power costs, power reliability, power systems, access to power, etc., and have focused a number of episodes on these issues. Earlier this June, we had a great conversation with John Bear, CEO of MISO (episode linked here) and in that discussion, we asked John what the country could be doing to better understand the system and reliability issues as a whole. John informed us that there was indeed such an organization dedicated to those issues and that we needed to connect with Jim Robb, President and CEO of the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC). At John’s suggestion, we reached out and are thrilled to host Jim for today’s COBT episode.
Jim joined NERC in 2018 and has over 35 years of experience in the power and energy sectors across engineering, consulting, and senior leadership roles at Western Electricity Coordinating Council, Northeast Utilities, Reliant Energy, and McKinsey. NERC is a non-profit regulatory authority whose mission is to assure the reliability and security of the North American bulk power system including the continental United States, Canada, and the northern portion of Baja California, Mexico. A detailed overview of NERC’s history is linked here. We were excited to visit with Jim and hear his valuable insights into the evolving and complex nature of the power grid.
Jim first provides background on the structure and mission of NERC and the growth in electricity usage driven by economic and technological developments and changing consumer habits. We then delve into the need for improved infrastructure development, supply chain issues, especially in securing transformers, and the importance of prioritizing transmission development as a vital part of the energy transition. Jim further describes the interaction between NERC and various entities including ISOs, market designers, and PUCs, as well as NERC’s oversight of grid operation entities and their collaborative approach in setting and enforcing standards. We also discuss NERC’s standards, and as you’ll hear, Jim describes them as guidelines for preserving the collective performance of the entire system. In our conversation, we also touch on the challenges and opportunities with new battery technologies, the integration of renewables into the grid, the importance of natural gas for maintaining stability, implications of increasing demand and the need for long-duration energy storage technologies, the likelihood that the cost of electricity increases in the coming years due to the transformation of the grid, and much more. We walked away with a greater appreciation for the work Jim and the team at NERC are doing and appreciate Jim sharing his time and perspective with us today.
Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that equity markets have had a substantial rally over the last week, attributed to lower bond yields and interest rates. He pointed out the significant drop in WTI crude price this week to $77.50/bbl. and emphasized the importance of WTI maintaining this technical trading level, or risk downside to trading support levels of $72-$73/bbl. He highlighted the plunge in crude oil time spreads due to recent weak Chinese economic data and Mideast turmoil that still seems to be contained. Additionally, he emphasized the significance of the upcoming OPEC meeting on November 26 for crude oil. He highlighted recent datapoints from electric utility Q3 conference calls and noted that a leading Southeastern electric utility was going to be increasing their electricity sales growth over the next five years from prior levels of 0-1% up to mid-high single digits. He further noted that this type of electricity sales uplift is unprecedented and that several other utilities are al
Today we were thrilled to be joined by Dr. Alexis Crow, Partner and Global Head of the Geopolitical Investing Practice at PwC. Alexis is a Council Member of the World Economic Forum, a Member of the Council on Foreign Relations, a Senior Fellow at Columbia Law School, and a Former Senior Fellow of the Atlantic Council. Her research is focused on financial stability, the future of trade and globalization, global energy markets, and investing in real assets, technology, and the future of the consumer. Alexis joined PwC in 2015 and her team helps companies and investors globally think about portfolio risk and portfolio strategy, investment data analytics and also frequently engages with boards as part of their practice. It was our pleasure to host Alexis and we learned a great deal on our global macroeconomics “magic carpet ride.”
In our discussion, Alexis shares background on her team and the main questions clients are facing across various industries. We discuss PwC’s differentiation with their global macroeconomics expertise, how Alexis divides her time globally and domestically, and PwC’s diverse client base in corporates, energy, media, private markets, and real estate. Alexis shares her perspective on the geopolitical landscape in the more complex world we face today in comparison to when she joined PwC in 2015, including the shifting dynamics between the US and China, the recurring concern of the direction of interest rates and the underlying sources of inflation, the interconnectedness of energy costs and inflation, the implications of the upcoming Presidential election, in particular for energy and immigration, and strategies for international expansion for smaller companies. We also discuss the challenging geopolitical landscape in the Middle East and Latin America and their respective complex dynamics, the US budget deficit and concerns about its impact, how other countries have successfully utilized productive debt for growth, the skills needed in energy companies for future economic growth, the implications of AI advancement over the next 20-30 years, and the emergence of new geopolitical standards. Alexis was gracious with her time and we ended with asking for her thoughts on governmental intervention in free markets over the next decade. We covered a great deal of territory and appreciate Alexis sharing her unique insights with us all.
Mike Bradley kicked us off by emphasizing the anticipation around tomorrow’s FOMC meeting, with consensus suggesting the FED will temporarily pause interest rate hikes. He highlighted that WTI crude oil price has recently dropped in the last few weeks and is now trading below levels prior to the October 7th Hamas attack on Israel. He noted the market’s seemingly unwarranted confidence in the stability of the Mideast and further highlighted a handful of key energy transition events over the past week that have set back transition expectations. He wrapped by noting that the Panamanian Government (an investor friendly business regime) recently caved into protestors’ demands for a referendum on the recently approved Cobre Panama copper mine deal, and that this move highlights that governmental risks for the backbone of energy transition (mining) are real. Arjun Murti chimed in with his thoughts on the need for energy companies to consider global expansion with the maturation of the shale industry, the associated challenges faced by companies operating internationally, and the inherent difficulty of the energy business. He also discusses the role of European supermajors in meeting global energy demands and raises the question of how smaller domestic companies can successfully venture into international markets, with the challenges they may encounter without the resources and scale of larger corporations.
We greatly enjoyed our global discussion with Alexis today and hope you find it as interesting as we did. Tha
We were honored this past week to welcome back renowned author Walter Isaacson for a Special Edition COBT episode. Walter is a Professor of History at Tulane University and a Distinguished Fellow at the Aspen Institute. He is also a good friend and someone with whom we are always thrilled to visit.
In his wide-ranging career, Walter has served as the Editor of TIME magazine, Chairman and CEO at CNN, and CEO of the Aspen Institute. As you may know, Walter has previously written on other fascinating people including Leonardo da Vinci, Steve Jobs and Henry Kissinger. Most recently, he has published his latest work entitled "Elon Musk." Mike Bradley, Todd Scruggs and I were so excited to visit with Walter and hear his unique insights on his time spent with Elon, discuss the overall process of researching and writing the book, and dig in to unique anecdotes about Tesla, SpaceX, and Twitter (X). We three read the book in preparation for the discussion and can absolutely recommend it. We learned a ton!
Walter begins our conversation by sharing his personal interest in writing Elon’s biography as the next feature in his series of books highlighting individuals ushering in a new era. Walter shares the course of events that sparked the book, starting with a two-hour phone call followed by a tweet from Elon that confirmed his appointment as his biographer. Elon’s tweet put Walter on the roller coaster of being by Elon’s side for two years, witnessing everything from business meetings and interactions with his family to rocket launches and late night factory line visits. We discuss the internal purpose and sense of mission that drives Elon, the urgency he expects from everyone around him, and his unique appetite for risk. Walter and the book take us on a journey from Elon’s childhood days in South Africa to emigrating to Penn to PayPal to SpaceX and up to and including his experience buying Twitter. With a lot of stops along the way! Walter shares the risks Elon took with building and launching the first at-scale private rocket company and the complicated situation he found himself in with Starlink satellites, especially in Ukraine. For those of you who are interested, we previously had the opportunity to visit with Trey Mendez, Mayor of Brownsville and tour SpaceX and found the SpaceX stories particularly interesting (episode linked here). When we weren’t talking SpaceX and everything that came with it, we of course discussed Tesla, Elon’s plunge into AI, what Elon refers to as "the algorithm," and many other aspects of one of the world’s most impactful people. We want to thank Walter profusely for sharing his time and thoughts with us. He clearly had a fascinating firsthand experience pulling together what is an absolutely gripping read.
For those of you in Houston, Brazos Bookstore in partnership with Halliburton Labs and Veriten is hosting a live open-to-the-public discussion with Walter on Sunday, November 12th the Ballroom at Bayou Place at 5:00 PM CT. Tickets must be purchased in advance and are available linked here.
We look forward to seeing Walter in Houston and hope you enjoy the book and discussion as much as we did! Our best to you all.
Today we had the pleasure of visiting with Chris Birdsall, Director of Economics and Energy at Exxon Mobil Corporation. Chris joined Exxon as an engineer in 1996 and has served in several areas of the organization including manufacturing, technology, and commercial roles over the past 27 years. For the last five years, Chris has lead a team of economists, modelers, and researchers responsible for the research and data that shapes Exxon Mobil’s Global 2050 Outlook report (linked here). It was our pleasure to visit with Chris and learn more about his team, their views on long-term energy demand and supply, and have a chance to discuss all of the inputs and assumptions in an ambitious undertaking like this report.
Chris prepared select slides from Exxon’s 2050 Outlook to guide our conversation (the presentation slides are linked here). Chris walks us through the presentation but we stopped frequently for Q&A. We discussed a range of topics including how hard it is to do forecasts like this and why increasingly more organizations are choosing to put out scenarios rather than true forecasts, how Exxon’s long-term emissions outlook compares to outcomes in Paris-aligned or net-zero scenarios, the correlation between energy consumption and human development, population projections, what Chris describes as the “and” equation between balancing human development with emissions reduction efforts, global energy demand growth by sector, growth in renewables and natural gas generation, and Exxon’s underlying predictions for EV growth. We also discuss how interest rates and federal policies are factored into Exxon’s models, the significance of the next ten years in determining trends in meeting 2050 emissions goals, the sustained investment needed in oil and natural gas, and much more. It is always exciting to discuss and debate future energy outlooks and we want to thank Chris for sharing his insights and time with us today. We could have continued for another hour!
Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that global markets continue to alternate between hope and worry as to when/if Israel pursues a full-blown Gaza ground invasion and how much regional conflict/chaos that will drive. He discussed that U.S. equity markets continue to be mostly focused on the direction of 10-year bond yields, which surged above 5% recently but have since pulled back to roughly 4.85%. He also noted that bond traders are beginning to worry less about current economic stats and focus more on who’ll be the buyers of U.S. bonds given the endless annual U.S. budget deficits (~$2 trillion in 2023). He flagged that WTI crude oil price has plunged $5/bbl. this week due to the Israeli invasion of Gaza being temporarily delayed. He also highlighted an abundance of Q3 energy earnings reports this week from oil services, natural gas levered E&Ps and U.S. oil majors. He wrapped by highlighting the combined market-caps of recent U.S. oil major mega-deals and that they far exceed the market-cap of the next closest E.U. oil major. Arjun Murti noted recent M&A activity appears to be based on priced decks that carry more upside potential than downside risk and reiterated the need for a balanced energy mix. He also highlighted the current favorable environment for M&A activity given current market conditions, relatively lower oil and gas CapEx and growing pains in the new energy sector.
Thanks to you all for your support and friendship!
We have a Special Edition COBT episode to start the week focused on recent events in Israel. Mike Bradley and I were pleased to be joined by Mark Medin, Executive Vice President of the UJA-Federation of New York, to discuss the organization’s efforts in aiding Israel, providing assistance to the Jewish community broadly, and sharing the UJA’s informational resources with all of us. Through good friends, we first learned about the UJA a couple of years ago and have been subscribed to their mailing list ever since. Just after the attacks on October 7th, through their communications we became instantly aware of how connected they are to the situation as the CEO of the UJA was on the ground in Israel (his first message after the attacks is linked here). Like many of you, we’ve wondered how we can be helpful and get involved with humanitarian support. We immediately thought of the UJA as a resource and are so pleased they joined us on COBT to share their knowledge of the situation.
The UJA-Federation’s work has a massive footprint and their reach spans 70 countries to care for people in need, promote justice and inclusion, respond to antisemitism and global crises, and strengthen Jewish life. In response to the Hamas terrorist attacks on October 7th, the UJA-Federation has remarkably already raised $100 million for the pressing needs of the people of Israel. In our discussion, we first ask Mark for his perspective on what it’s like on the ground in Israel and how the UJA-Federation is supporting humanitarian efforts with trauma care, relocation assistance, travel, food, housing, clothing, and more. We discuss the organization’s swift response in sending financial support (they have allocated $29 million to various charities already), the impact of false media claims on public opinion, understanding the West Bank, the bad actors versus the majority of peace-seeking citizens in Palestine, concern with global markets’ calmness since the attack, other countries’ involvement and history, the coming together of Jewish communities globally to stand up for the people of Israel, and more. The continuing humanitarian needs remain immense and dire. We greatly appreciate Mark and the UJA-Federation for their work and for sharing their important perspective.
The UJA-Federation has several resources available on their website (linked here) to find information on recent developments, community events and local resources, along with the organization’s emergency fund for Israel (linked here). Veriten has made a donation.
We hope you find the discussion informative and also helpful in understanding the tragic events of the last two plus weeks.
Our best to you all.
We are pleased to share with you a very unique and special COBT episode that provides a glimpse into America’s proud energy past and highlights some of the great life lessons the American West and the oil patch can impart. Today we had the great pleasure of visiting with Hank True and Dave True of the True Companies. The True family is celebrating the 75th anniversary of True Companies, which was founded by Dave and Hank’s father, Dave True, Jr. in 1948. True Companies includes the following businesses: True Oil, True Drilling, True Ranches, Toolpushers Supply Company, Black Hills Trucking, Measurement Services LLC, Bridger Pipeline LLC, Eighty-Eight Oil LLC, Equitable Oil Purchasing Company, Hilltop Bank, Flowstate, and Brick and Bond, in addition to numerous other ranches and properties. The 75th anniversary celebrations are being held in Houston, Oklahoma City, and the Company’s headquarters city of Casper, Wyoming. The significance of the Company to the state of Wyoming and to energy can clearly be seen in the description of the Company’s anniversary from this summer’s Congressional Record, linked here.
You’ll hear many interesting points in our discussion. True Companies is an extremely large and complex organization, with approximately 1,150 employees in eleven states. Their business includes several aspects of energy including pipelines, oil and gas, oilfield services, technology, as well as agriculture and banking. What drew us to the Trues was not just the 75th anniversary but their reputation for leadership, involvement in the community, and their extensive and rich history. Large family-owned companies are becoming more rare in today’s modern world and it is refreshing to see the mindset of a private enterprise as they face challenges and take advantage of opportunities. Hank and Dave’s brotherhood/partnership is fascinating to watch as they reflect on the love and respect they have for their parents, how their parents raised them, lessons from summers spent in a modest cabin, and as they share wisdom learned from now three generations of an energy company and the ruggedness and toughness that was instilled in them. Their family’s story is a reminder of the American dream, building something from nothing, and of the energy industry’s grit and determination. It was a fantastic conversation and we are most honored the True brothers would share their reflections with us.
Mike Bradley kicked us off by sharing concern over global markets as they remain remarkably calm despite the Israeli-Hamas war. He highlighted that 10-year bond yields have surged from Friday’s close of 4.6% due to strong retail sales stats and are pushing towards trading highs of 4.9%. While bond traders expect the FED will pause rate hikes at the upcoming November 1st FOMC meeting, hotter than expected economic stats could change their calculus. He noted WTI crude oil prices have seen a modest increase over the past five trading days, reaching around $87/bbl., and that crude oil price volatility seems to be influenced weekly by demand or supply concerns, with this week’s supply concerns dominating including Cushing and SPR crude oil storage levels. He flagged the Biden Administration surprised the market by announcing an easing of Venezuelan oil sanctions and further noted crude oil traders are much more concerned with what direction the Biden Administration might take on Iranian crude oil sanctions. He wrapped by highlighting Oil Services Q3 reporting begins this week with Liberty Energy and Schlumberger reporting this week. Jeff Tillery also joined and added his perspective and questions in our discussion.
We were delighted and very thankful to visit with Hank and Dave. As we shared at the end, everyone we’ve come across that knows the True family holds them in high re
Today we had the pleasure of hosting Christopher Mohajer for a discussion centered around batteries and battery technology. Chris serves as the Director of Battery Technology Equity Research at U.S. Capital Advisors (USCA) and has a background in technical sales, having previously worked with Digatron Power Electronics, a supplier of battery test and formation equipment. Before that, he held several roles at the California Clean Energy Fund. Last year, Chris and the USCA team published a comprehensive report highlighting batteries as a pivotal component for decarbonization. We were thrilled to visit with Chris and discuss the latest developments and trends in the world of batteries.
Our discussion today started with Chris’s background and what drew him to batteries originally. It was here that he made his light-hearted comment around being the “accidental battery guy.” At the heart of today’s discussion, Chris walked us through about 15 slides pulled from his and his team’s work on batteries. The presentation slides are linked here. In the presentation, Chris covers battery history from lead acid to today, the different battery chemistries, the metrics for measuring battery performance, the tradeoffs between performance, cost, and safety, cathode and anode technology developments, and the surprisingly lengthy duration to bring new technology to market. Chris also shares insights on battery production, the battery supply chain, and the importance of permitting and potential for the US to develop its own battery supply chain if the right conditions are met. Whether you are new to batteries or well-versed, Chris’s overview is very likely to be interesting to you.
Today’s other discussion topics included mining challenges, battery market growth, battery innovations, proposed US battery factories, utility-scale storage, the role of batteries on the grid, public equity investor sentiment, and more. We ended with asking Chris what he thinks the future of batteries will look like in ten years. He is definitely bullish on their role in our future energy systems. We want to thank Chris for joining us today and for providing a great and detailed overview. We learned a lot and look forward to continuing to follow Chris and his team’s insights.
Mike Bradley kicked us off by pointing out the remarkable stability in global markets since the breakout of the Israeli war with Hamas. He observed that both US bond and equity markets have traded higher, and that equity market volatility has actually fallen. He flagged that 10-year bond yields have pulled back from Friday’s close of 4.8%, are trading at ~4.65%, for what looks to be a temporary rush to safety. Mike also noted that this week’s CPI & PPI prints will be important in determining whether the FED will pause/raise rates at their November FOMC meeting. He highlighted the modest increase in WTI crude oil price this week (~$3.00/bbl.) and also indicated that it had underperformed most trader’s expectations. He noted that crude oil traders will be very focused on Cushing weekly inventory levels, with consensus looking for a slight build, but that an unexpected draw could push WTI price/time spreads much higher. He rounded out the conversation by flagging that Q3 reporting is set to begin mid-next week with a handful of oil service companies. Todd Scruggs also joined today’s discussion and shared a few observations upfront, including both positive developments as well as potential challenges in battery technology and manufacturing.
We greatly enjoyed the conversation with Chris and hope you enjoy it as much as we did. Our best to you all!
It was our honor today to welcome General David Petraeus (US Army Retired), Partner at KKR and Chairman of the KKR Global Institute. General Petraeus’ distinguished military career spans over 37 years of service, marked by six consecutive commands as a general officer including leadership of the US-led coalitions in both Iraq during the surge and Afghanistan. Following his military service, General Petraeus served as Director of the CIA during a period of significant achievements in the global war on terror before joining KKR in 2013.
In addition to his roles at KKR, General Petraeus serves as a board member, strategic advisor, and lecturer. He has earned numerous honors, awards, and decorations for his outstanding service to our country. General Petraeus has also recently co-authored a new book with British historian Andrew Roberts entitled “Conflict: The Evolution of Warfare from 1945 to Ukraine.” We are thrilled to have had the opportunity to visit with General Petraeus about the book, which is set to be officially published on October 17th. Our team read advanced copies and found it to be thoroughly insightful.
As you will hear in today’s episode, we covered a broad range of topics. General Petraeus first shares the inspiration behind his book and the critical role of strategic leadership in both military and business contexts. As the title suggests, “Conflict” explores the evolution of conflict and General Petraeus draws on his own experiences including his studies of Vietnam and his direct involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan. As you will hear, General Petraeus refers to a strategic leadership model developed for the Belfer Center at Harvard, which can be found linked here. We touch on the changes the Army made following Vietnam and the lessons learned there, the importance of leadership during key inflection points whether it’s in the oil patch or in combat, and how to create a culture that offers what General Petraeus refers to as “reasonable feedback.” We also discuss KKR’s investing strategies as well as the General’s experience stepping out of the normal military path to attend graduate school and the insights he was able to apply back in the military. The General walks us through geopolitical dynamics with Saudi Arabia, China, Russia, and the US, how modern technology has transformed elements of the battlefield, and the outlook for the US military today. We greatly appreciated General Petraeus’ thoughtful responses and are immensely grateful to him for sharing his time with us and for his service to our country.
Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that 10-year bond yields have surged to 4.8% (a 16-year high) due to worries that the FOMC will be holding interest rates higher and for longer. He flagged WTI crude oil price seems to have temporarily settled in at roughly $90/bbl., and that traders will be closely monitoring the October 4th OPEC meeting and Cushing oil inventory levels. He wrapped by noting two seminal events that occurred early last week that could have a huge and lasting impact on global energy transition goals, including NextEra Energy Partners (NEP) stock price plunge and the IEA’s updated Net Zero Roadmap report. Arjun Murti built on Mike’s comments on recent corrections in the new energy sector by flagging the risk associated with organizations like GFANZ pushing financial institutions, capital markets, and insurance companies to make decisions based on emissions metrics, potentially leading to unfavorable loans and policies in the new energy sector and insufficient investment in traditional energy.
We hope you all enjoy the discussion as much as we did and consider adding “Conflict” to your reading list. Our best to you all!
On Wednesday in Denver, we had the pleasure of joining Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. (UC Boulder) and Chris Wright, CEO and Chairman of Liberty Energy for a live discussion as part of Liberty Energy’s “Liberty and Energy” Presentation Series. Roger is a Professor in the Environmental Studies department at the University of Colorado Boulder and the author of “The Honest Broker” substack (linked here). Roger’s work focuses on the intersection of policy and governance issues related to science, technology, environment, innovation, and sports. It was exciting to bring the Denver area community together and have a live, studio audience to discuss the current state of climate, energy and the environment broadly.
To kick off the discussion, Roger walked us through a presentation with key background on the current state of science around energy and climate (slides linked here). We then dove into how the broader population might get better data and discussion around energy and climate, issues with the IPCC’s summary for policy makers, how priorities in the environmental world have shifted to focusing primarily on climate, the impact of climate alarmism on children and young adults, and how Roger approaches teaching his students to appreciate the scale and complexity of energy and electricity in the world. Roger shares examples of the “scenario wars” that are taking place, his experience being investigated by Congress, and the overwhelming need for solid data on climate from a trusted, authoritative organization that allows for open discussion.
We also discuss the role of oil and gas companies in the energy world of tomorrow, the math of getting to net zero 2050, the desperate need for more energy in the developing world, the glaring opportunity for America to help power the world, and conclude with some inside scoop on Roger’s chances of joining the team with Coach Prime. As you will hear, Roger is a great explainer and wonderful thinker. We can’t thank the Liberty team enough for allowing us to be a part of it. The world needs more “Liberty and Energy” town hall gatherings!
As you will hear, Roger very positively mentions a podcast with Michael Liebreich and Jim Skea (the new head) of the IPCC. The episode is linked here.
As we head into the weekend, we wish you well and hope your team wins! If you do get out for a walk or otherwise have some time, we hope very much you can tune in to this Special Edition COBT. We learned a lot!
Today we were thrilled to welcome back Les Csorba, Partner in Charge of the Houston office and a member of the CEO and Board of Directors Practice focused on the energy industry at Heidrick & Struggles. Les has over 30 years of experience in executive search, leadership consulting, and executive coaching and this year marks his 25th year at the firm. The catalyst for today’s discussion is a recent report from Heidrick & Struggles entitled “Lessons from Ukraine’s wartime CEOs on leading through crisis” (linked here). It’s a fascinating look at how these CEOs have adapted under duress and how they are planning for the future. As the son of Hungarian refugees that fled the country during the Russian invasion in 1956 (more on their story and parallels to Ukraine linked here), Les is very passionate about helping the people of Ukraine. It was our pleasure to visit with Les to discuss the report, the war in Ukraine, his recent trip to Kyiv, leadership overall, and the latest trends in finding CEOs and board members.
Les first shares background on the report’s creation, his experience traveling to Kyiv last month to meet with colleagues and deliver supplies, his impressions of what life in Kyiv is really like, and the resiliency, optimism, and unity he witnessed. We discuss the broader sentiment in Eastern Europe, Heidrick & Struggles’ CEO and Board Practice group, and lessons from the report that can be applied to all leaders. Les walks us through key takeaways from the report including planning for geopolitical exposure, adapting to wartime decision-making, operating in the here and now, being decisive, and speaking with radical candor. We touch on how managements have changed since Les’ last appearance on COBT in 2021 including an increased desire for leaders that understand strategy, regulations, energy policy, and have a balanced and pragmatic approach to the energy transition. Les shares trends he’s seeing in energy boards including a shift to recruiting board members with direct experience in either energy or relevant industries, large global industrial companies’ interest in board members with experience in energy, the war for talent in both oil and gas and new energy, CEO search and succession work, and more. We ended with Les’ thoughts on President Zelenskyy and where he sees energy in ten years. The Heidrick team is to be congratulated for such an interesting and unique report.
Mike Bradley started us off by highlighting that market volatility has increased due to several lingering key issues including a spike in bond yields, a looming US government shutdown, resumption of student loan payments, a selective UAW strike, and a quarter end repositioning of mutual funds. From a commodities standpoint, he noted that WTI continues to trade around $90/bbl. due to global crude oil inventory tightness and also mentioned that Cushing crude oil inventory levels are expected to draw markedly again this week and are approaching historical absolute and seasonal lows. He ended with highlighting that bond and equity prices are both “technically” oversold, both are dialing in some heightened level of risk while these issues endure, and that a resolution of one or more of these issues could result in a temporary snapback in markets. Jeff Tillery discussed the IEA’s recently released updated net-zero roadmap, which outlines significant reductions in coal, oil, and gas demand by 2030, and will likely spur a fascinating debate about the report’s impact on decision-making regarding energy sources and cost implications. You may recall OPEC’s recent reac
We are excited to share this Special Edition with you. We had the opportunity late last week to visit with Jimmy Glotfelty, Commissioner on the Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUC). Jimmy was appointed as Commissioner by Governor Abbott in 2021 following an extensive career in the energy and power public and private sectors, including Founder of Clean Line Energy, Senior Policy Advisor to US Secretary of Energy Spencer Abraham, Energy Policy Director to then Texas Governor George W. Bush, Legislative Director for Congressman Sam Johnson, and Executive and Managerial roles at Calpine Corporation, ICF Consulting and Quanta Services. Jimmy was recently and additionally directed by the Governor (letter linked here) to lead a new Working Group focused on the future of nuclear energy in Texas. It was our honor not just to visit with Jimmy but to help him publicize the Working Group’s efforts in order to allow for anyone who has ideas or thoughts to aid in evaluating advanced nuclear energy to be able to share them with the Commissioner.
In our discussion, Jimmy shares background on the group’s creation and goals, Texas’ position to be a leader in nuclear energy, as well as the role of Texas communities. On Thursday, September 28th, the first public meeting will take place in Austin (details linked here) to discuss the Working Group’s proposed organizational structure, process and timeline for the coming months. Jimmy reiterated the group’s willingness to hear all opinions, including voices from underserved communities and those who are opposed to nuclear. We also discuss which other states are preparing to build nuclear sites and how nuclear can position Texas to have reliable and clean power for decades to come, how to address short-term power and transmission issues, how the Working Group will collaborate with the Federal government, the feedback Jimmy has received so far, and Jimmy’s personal interest in the cause. We ended with Jimmy’s vision for power in Texas in ten years. We are confident that Jimmy and his team are prepared for the challenge and were thrilled to spend time with him.
Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that bond markets are under pressure given the FED’s recent dialogue that interest rates are likely to stay higher for longer, which pushed the 10-year yield to 17-year high of 4.5%. From a commodities standpoint, he highlighted that Brent and WTI price were relatively unchanged on the week given that Saudi remains vigilant with crude oil production management, which is keeping global physical crude oil markets tight. He also noted that WTI could be getting additional price support due to Cushing crude oil storage levels nearing 10-year seasonal lows. He highlighted that broader equity markets were down roughly 4-5% over the last five trading days due to lingering concerns around interest rates, crude oil prices, a US government shutdown, and the UAW strike against the three largest US automakers. He also noted that two high profile IPOs have recently traded under their recent IPO price which could be a worrisome sign for equity markets. Mike wrapped by noting that the UK government looks to be pushing out the phase out date for their ICE vehicle sales from the current date of 2030 out to 2035. Brett Rampal joined and contributed his nuclear perspective and questions in the discussion.
If you are in the area, we hope you’ll consider joining the Commissioner on Thursday or tune in online. Updates on the Working Group’s progress will be available on the PUC website (linked here) under Project #55421.
Thanks to you all!
Today we were delighted to host Dr. Pippa Malmgren. Pippa is an experienced economist, author, and speaker, served as an advisor to President George W. Bush, and has advised the British Cabinet and the Cabinets of several Asian nations on economic policy. She has held several significant positions throughout her career including Senior Advisor to Monaco Foundry and Avonhurst, Board Member at Premios Verdes, former Managing Director at Bankers Trust, and the author of several award-winning books. She is a founder and co-founder of tech ventures spanning robotics, cleantech, space, and more. We were thrilled to get Pippa’s perspective on current global economic trends and geopolitical events.
Our discussion explored a range of topics starting with Pippa’s experience in the White House during 9/11 and her team’s challenging task of re-creating a market for US Treasuries and re-opening the NYSE. Pippa shares her outlook on today’s stress-filled geopolitical environment, the unique and often misunderstood relationship between the US and China, and why Pippa thinks the world is at a peak in geopolitical tension (and trending down from here). We discuss the potential for war between China and Taiwan, what surprises might happen there, geopolitics in Latin America including Chinese and Russian influence in the area, and the possibilities for the often-dismissed potential of space-based solar power. We then explore leadership and leaders around the world, Pippa’s latest book “The Infinite Leader,” autocracy vs. democracy, Europe’s seat at the table geopolitically, AI’s potential and the importance of the human element and creativity, and more. We ended with Pippa’s thoughts on the current culture at universities and her advice to all of us to shift from a “scarcity mindset” to the “possibility of abundance.” We look forward to continuing to follow Pippa’s work on SubStack (linked here) and can’t thank her enough for sharing her geopolitical wisdom, for stimulating our thinking, and for encouraging all of us to think outside our own boxes.
Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting this week's FOMC meeting, noting that consensus was placing near zero odds for a rate hike at this meeting but roughly 50% odds of a rate hike at the next FOMC meeting. From a commodities standpoint, he highlighted that Brent and WTI prices surpassed $95/bbl. and $$92/bbl. respectively. He also noted that there was an interesting back and forth last week between the IEA (Financial Times Op-Ed from Fatih Birol linked here) and OPEC (statement linked here) regarding peak oil demand prior to 2030. He ended by highlighting that energy equities have lagged the surge in crude oil price, mostly because equity investors need to see how crude oil price trades when Saudi begins pushing crude barrels back into the market before there can be energy equity multiple expansion. Jeff Tillery shared a few observations of the public energy markets over the past 8-9 months, noting an overall trend towards normalcy in the energy sector.
We greatly enjoyed the conversation with Pippa and hope you find it as interesting as we did. Thanks to you all!
For today’s COBT, we had the pleasure of hosting Captain John Konrad, Founder and CEO of gCaptain and Author of "Fire on the Horizon." John is a highly experienced US Merchant Marine officer with a diverse background and has worked on container ships, oil tankers, and offshore supply vessels across the world. gCaptain is a leading global maritime and offshore industry news platform offering insights, information, and resources on shipping, offshore drilling, safety, technology, and more. We are struck by how important the relationship is between energy and shipping and John proved to be the perfect expert to help us explore shipping, energy, global trade, geopolitics, technologies, inflation, regulatory impact, and more.
John first shares his journey from an interest in sailing and computers to attending the Naval Academy (and then the Merchant Marine Academy) to becoming a captain, his experiences in the offshore oil industry, and the inspiration behind "Fire on the Horizon." We discuss the gCaptain platform and the importance of raising awareness about the shipping industry and its role in the global economy, key geopolitical challenges in shipping, the importance of ton-miles, shipping efficiency, and the shortage of shipyard capacity globally. John explains shipping’s recent impact on inflation, the challenges of using alternative fuels, how the uncertainty of future regulations is impacting construction of new ships today, and how countries are preparing for new routes opening across the Arctic. We also cover the critical "choke points" around the world, the aging workforce in shipping, the need for increased attention from the US government, as well as the space’s increasingly numerous and attractive investment opportunities. As you will see, the time flies as we go from one interesting angle to another. Shipping may be one of those industries you just think you understand, until you realize how much you are missing.
To start the show, Mike Bradley highlighted key economic events over the next week and noted that Brent and WTI prices surpassed $92/bbl. and $89/bbl. respectively, due to concerns of a widening global crude oil supply deficit in Q4’23 of 3mmbpd. He pointed out that the last time the global crude oil supply deficit was this wide was Q3’21 and that the US SPR was over 600mm barrels and today it’s 350mm barrels, which provides little price manipulation latitude this go around for the Biden Administration. He also noted the last time 12-month crude oil time spreads were this deep in backwardation was June 2022 when WTI price was trading over $110/bbl. He concluded by noting that energy equities have generally lagged behind the current surge in crude oil price mostly because equity investors want to see how crude oil price trades when Saudi eventually begins pushing crude oil barrels back into the market. Arjun Murti mentioned a recent opinion piece predicting peak fossil fuel demand this decade (by Fatih Birol in the Financial Times) and highlighted the math of global energy needs for long-term demand, the need to depoliticize energy discussions, and the importance of a healthy North American oil and gas sector.
We greatly appreciate John’s thorough tour of the complex and multifaceted world of shipping. John is not only incredibly knowledgeable, but the experience of talking with him was a reminder that sometimes the best way to understand energy better is to go to an adjacent industry and look back with a different vantage point on all these questions the world has on energy, the environment, and national security. Simply put, the discussion with John was outstanding!
We certainly hope you enjoy. Our best to you all!
Today we were thrilled to welcome Jeff Merrifield, Partner and Head of Global Energy at Pillsbury Law, for an engaging nuclear-focused discussion. Jeff is a global thought leader on nuclear power with over three decades of experience in the energy industry. His current leadership roles in addition to Pillsbury include serving as Vice Chairman of the US Nuclear Industry Council and Chairman of the Advanced Nuclear Task Force, as well as serving on the Civil Nuclear Trade Advisory Committee. Jeff is a former two-time presidential appointee to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and serves as the outside counsel for the Fusion Industry Association, along with additional industry related board positions. We were delighted to visit with Jeff and hear his important perspective on a wide range of nuclear-related topics.
In our discussion, Jeff shares insights about Pillsbury’s extensive experience in the nuclear sector and their expansion to include fusion and hydrogen practices, along with wind and solar. We discuss the pace of nuclear investment and activity, the significance of interest from industrial companies seeking their own low carbon power solutions, and the evolving landscape within all different levels of the government around nuclear technologies. Jeff highlighted the military’s interest in microreactors for portable power generation before turning to his experience as a Commissioner of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the future of the nuclear regulatory picture, and nuclear supply chain challenges such as uranium enrichment capabilities. We also discuss corporate finance in nuclear startups, investor and financial institution interest in nuclear technologies, the nuclear fusion community and connectivity across nuclear technologies, the NRC’s recent decision to reduce the minimum evacuation zone surrounding nuclear facilities, Canada’s recent nuclear investments, and more. It was in reference to regulatory not going too far that Jeff commented you can whittle a piece of wood away to nothing if you aren’t careful. We ended with Jeff’s vision for the future landscape of nuclear energy in ten years. It was our pleasure to host Jeff and we greatly enjoyed the discussion.
Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting several recent commodity and energy equity events. From a commodities standpoint, he flagged that Brent price eclipsed $90/bbl. and that crude oil time spreads exceeded 1-year highs due to a strong “physical” crude oil market. He noted that crude oil prices have moved higher on news that Saudi was continuing its “price over volume” strategy and extending its 1mmbpd of production cuts through year-end and 2H’23 global crude oil S/D deficit greater than 2mmbpd. From an energy equity standpoint, he highlighted this week’s Barclays Energy & Power Conference and that investor sentiment seems to be constructive. He also noted that energy management teams seemed to be modestly more constructive with the 2024 commodity macro setup which could be the reason we’ve seen a handful of upstream, midstream and utility deals over the last 4-5 weeks. He wrapped by highlighting a leading offshore wind developer potentially having to take substantial impairments in its US wind portfolio because of uneconomic PPAs stemming from higher equipment inflation, lack of investment tax credit movement and higher than expected interest rates. Brett Rampal shared recent nuclear developments including news that Oklo has been selected to supply a microreactor at an Alaskan Air Force base and India’s recent achievement of bringing its first indigenously designed commercial reactor to full capacity.
We mentioned a number of nuclear companies and projects in today’s episode. If you are interested in learning more about some of these companies, Veriten’s COBT episode with Westinghouse is l
Today we had the honor of hosting Mayor Sylvester Turner, the two-term Mayor of Houston, in the Veriten offices. Mayor Turner and a delegation of the city’s business and government leaders recently led a trade mission to West Africa visiting Nigeria, Cote d’Ivoire, and Ghana. Their mission focused on finding new economic opportunities for Houston companies in Africa, continuing to grow the cultural and civic engagement between Houston and Africa, and expanding opportunities for overall collaboration with African nations. We were thrilled to visit with the Mayor and discuss the trip and get his perspectives on how the Houston energy community and energy community at large in America can do more in Africa.
We start with some background from the Mayor on the impetus for the trip to West Africa. In the discussion, we touch on the difference in energy sentiment in developing Africa versus the OECD and how oil and gas is more often seen as a necessity for survival and development in the region. The Mayor highlighted in his remarks the receptivity of constituents in African countries for American businesses to invest with a focus on “win-win” situations. We touch on the lack of classic energy investment in the continent from organizations like the World Bank, the richness of resources in the region, supply chain needs from much of the developed world in a post-Ukraine environment, and a reluctance or lack of trust the region has in some countries (i.e. former colonial powers) in helping the continent prosper. We openly discuss the competitive advantage the U.S. has over other countries to pursue opportunities in a continent with a huge population, a young population and 40% of the world’s minerals. We mention the $2,500 per capita GDP that hasn’t changed in over 20 years and dig into the historical issues with getting investment to the region and why there is a struggle to fill the slots in trade investment missions like the one recently organized by Mayor Turner’s office. The Mayor emphasizes the need for the U.S. to recognize the opportunities in the African continent before it’s too late and encourages America to not leave it to countries like China and Russia to take advantage when the desire from the region is for relationships with the U.S. We transition the conversation to the importance of relationships – from the work between mayors in various cities to relationships across the many sectors necessary to help the region as well as relationships within administrations and the need to work across the aisle and the importance of valuing everyone at the table. We close out the discussion focused on the energy transition and the effect of these decisions on the people most impacted economically, how we can all work collaboratively to meet goals without creating winners and losers, why Houston is a positive place for business, and what’s next for the Mayor following the end of his second term in Houston. It was an exceptional discussion with an exceptional person. The Mayor always strives to have “everyone at the table” and we couldn’t agree with his philosophy more.
Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting several events that were topical last week and in coming weeks. From an economic standpoint, he highlighted that bond yields plunged on Tuesday due to a much weaker than expected JOLTS Job Openings report. He discussed the FED Chairman Powell’s Jackson Hole speech last week and that September’s FOMC rate decision would be dictated by near-term economic data. He noted that the UAW labor contract will expire on September 14 th and that it has serious economic, financial and political ramifications. From a commodity standpoint, he highlighted that crude oil prices have been stalled around $80/bbl. for the last few weeks. He also noted that crude “product” markets will be very focused on below average US product inventories, and the lingering effects of last week’s Garyville ref
Today we were thrilled to welcome back Gabe Collins, Fellow in Energy & Environmental Regulatory Affairs, along with his colleague Steven Miles, Fellow in Global Natural Gas, with Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy. Gabe last joined us on COBT in May of 2022 (episode linked here) and has a fascinating background in the economics, policies, and geopolitics of Russia and China, as well as national security-related research and analysis. In addition to his position at the Baker Institute, Steven is a Senior Counsel at Baker Botts and previously was a twenty-year Partner with the firm, serving as the Energy Sector Chair focused on LNG, natural gas, electric power, and renewable energy industries. It was our pleasure to visit with Gabe and Steven for a global energy conversation focused on LNG and Europe. The focus was on one key question: “why isn’t Europe locking in more long-term gas supply?”
The catalyst to our discussion stems from a report co-authored by Gabe and Steven that will be published in the near future. Titled “Eastern Promises or Energy Fantasies: Why Is Europe Not Replacing Russian Pipeline Gas With Long-Term LNG Contracts?”, the report leverages analysis from 600+ LNG contracts over 25 years leading up to the Ukraine invasion. In our discussion with Gabe and Steven, we cover key themes including the inspiration behind writing the paper, the potential role and intentions of China, Europe’s response to its gas shortage and its reliance on spot LNG, potential geopolitical risks, and the potential explanations for Europe’s reluctance to sign long-term gas contracts. We also discuss the concept of funding post-war Ukraine through gas surcharges, Mexico’s growing LNG capacity, how Europe’s decision not to contract LNG longer-term could be hurting the developing world and the climate, and the discrepancy between European policymakers’ optimistic view of hydrogen and renewable energy with the unease among industrial players who see the ongoing demand for gas and the challenges in transitioning away from it. Gabe and Steven also recently wrote an article in Foreign Policy that touches on many of these aspects, linked here.
Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting upcoming events and topics of interest. Economically, all attention is on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s Jackson Hole speech this Friday for color/clarity on how much higher/how much longer interest rates could stay elevated. In commodities, crude oil remains steady around $80/bbl., with traders seemingly divided on which dynamic will win this year, that being supply (OPEC cuts) or demand (China weakness). He also noted that LNG markets will be closely following this week’s current Australian LNG labor negotiations to handicap the potential for an LNG strike in the coming weeks, which could impact up to 10% of global LNG. From a broader equity market standpoint, equity traders will be intensely focused on NVIDIAs earnings and rounded out the conversation by flagging recent midstream deals with one of the key themes being “controlling the molecules” from wellhead to end user/markets. He also highlighted a Permian E&P merger this week between two mid-cap E&Ps, which is leading investors to contemplate whether an acceleration of public-to-public deals could be forthcoming, and whether they’ll be done at premiums. Arjun Murti highlighted the spillover effects of how policies from the EU will have ramifications for the rest of the world, comparing key themes from Gabe and Steven’s report to recent Super-Spiked themes. Todd Scruggs chimed in to share LNG trends including the short-term extremely tight supply-demand balance in Europe and longer-term potential for the US to become
Today we had the very exciting and highly interesting opportunity to visit with Dr. Hongcen Wei, Commodities Strategist in Global Investment Research at Goldman Sachs. Hongcen joined Goldman two plus years ago from the University of Chicago where he taught math for many years and completed his PhD in Economics. Hongcen and his team have led the effort in re-launching Goldman’s global macro coal research coverage. We have long been interested in hosting a show focused on coal and were thrilled to connect with Hongcen to discuss his team’s research, global coal markets, coal consumption and related trends all around the world, and coal’s huge impact on the energy transition.
In our conversation, Hongcen first shares details about his background and personal interest in coal and commodities in particular as the “in-between” of economics and finance. Hongcen then provides context for Goldman’s decision to re-launch coverage including coal’s role in the energy transition discussion, global coal demand and the obvious implications for natural gas use, and the revival of the coal market in the midst of an energy crisis. We discussed the global coal export/import market (about 1 billion of the 8 billion tons consumed annually) and its unique dynamics and major players, coal grade variations and the implications for emissions and power plant efficiency, and coal price volatility (especially in recent years). Hongcen walked us through a mini presentation outlining Goldman’s three main coverage themes: “reroute, rebalance, and revival” (slides linked here). We also discuss the data challenges of forecasting coal prices, the potential risks including shifts in domestic prices, changes in export dynamics and long-term climate policy concerns, the trajectory of coal demand with China’s significant influence over the next decade, and more. Hongcen was more than patient with our plethora of questions and we greatly enjoyed the discussion. We have been remiss in not talking more about coal on COBT so we were elated to have this important discussion.
Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that this was a light economic calendar week with traders mostly focused on July retail sales, which printed a little hotter than expected and are keeping bonds yields elevated, pressuring the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer. Shifting to commodities, he flagged that crude oil prices have been under pressure this week due to weaker than expected economic stats out of China which looks to be temporarily reversing 2H’23 global oil “supply” deficit concerns back to near-term “demand” concerns. He also discussed the spike in European natural prices (+30%) over concerns of a possible Australian LNG worker strike in coming weeks which could affect 10% of global LNG exports. From an equity market standpoint, he highlighted that most of the S&P 500 companies have already reported Q2 results, and that this week would be dominated by large box retailers, which would provide a look at the health of US consumers. He rounded out the conversation by highlighting the huge relative performance disparity between global coal prices and a basket of US coal equities over the last two years. Arjun Murti prepared us for the discussion with Hongcen with a historical view of coal’s supply and demand dynamics, drawing parallels between coal and the oil and gas sectors and highlighting lessons oil and gas companies can learn from coal.
Thanks again to Hongcen for joining us today and our best to you all!
Today we were delighted to host Bob Maguire, Managing Director and Co-Head of Carlyle International Energy Partners, along with Parminder Singh, Managing Director of International Energy, with The Carlyle Group at our office in Houston for a broad discussion on international energy investments. Bob is a seasoned international investor and has participated in global energy markets since 1986. Par brings prior experience in industrial sector investments and joined the Carlyle team in 2008. The Carlyle International Energy Group Fund is comprised of two funds which total approximately $5 billion of capital dedicated exclusively to international E&P. As we all ask ourselves where the world’s oil growth is going to come from, we were thrilled to visit with these two experts from the international arena.
Bob and Par first share their insights on Carlyle’s recent Neptune Energy deal (press release linked here) including background on the deal, motivations behind the sale, and the changing landscape of international energy investments. We discuss the potential for strategic buyers to enter the market, the importance of having a solid understanding of the markets and regions in which you invest, the advantages of having international experience and networks, and the value of operational expertise in maximizing investment returns. Bob and Par highlight how Carlyle’s approach to asset selection and team collaboration has shaped their success. We discuss the changing nature of oil and gas markets with a shift towards international opportunities and increased interest from European players, the importance of having a well-rounded and diverse portfolio to mitigate risk, and the influence of inflation in services. We also cover traditional acquisition and exploitation strategies in the energy sector, how private equity approaches can be very appealing, the potential for value creation through reducing carbon intensity, the concept of responsible ownership, European energy policy, the changing landscape of energy financing, international onshore opportunities, and more. We ended with asking Bob for his vision of the future energy landscape in ten years. It was our total pleasure to visit with Bob and Par and we want to thank them for stopping by.
Mike Bradley kicked us off with his insights on current market conditions, highlighting shifts in market sentiment from a demand problem to supply constraints. He mentions the impact of Chinese data on crude oil prices and flags upcoming CPI & PPI data releases. Mike also notes changes in the market’s behavior and highlights trends in crude oil pricing, production, and refining activity. Arjun Murti prepared us for the discussion with Bob and Par by highlighting the historical context of international energy investments and how it has evolved over the years, including a shift from a focus on US shale to increased interest in international opportunities and the challenges and opportunities associated with international investments.
We hope you enjoy the conversation with Bob and Par as much as we did. Our best to you all!
It was our honor today to welcome Harold Hamm, Executive Chairman and Founder of Continental Resources, on the date of the official debut of his new book entitled "Game Changer: Our Fifty-Year Mission to Secure America’s Energy Independence." Harold is an acclaimed and veteran wildcatter, an American Patriot, an advisor to four Presidents on American energy policy, a visionary entrepreneur, and a loyal Oklahoman. He has made sizable contributions to the industry while also leading nonprofit efforts in health, education, and energy industry advocacy. "Game Changer" sheds light on the energy industry’s history, challenges, and potential solutions for securing America’s energy independence and prosperity. We were incredibly thankful to have the good fortune of visiting with Harold on this exciting day – the official release date for "Game Changer." His is a uniquely American story, as it takes us from his time as a five-year-old boy who lived in rural Oklahoma without power to being Executive Chairman of one of America’s leading oil and gas companies. This book is a reminder of what can only happen in America.
As you will hear in today’s episode, we covered a broad range of topics. Harold first shares his inspiration for writing the book and how his childhood sparked his interest in the oil industry. We touch on his experiences in the 1970s and the energy policies and challenges faced by the US in that decade, the importance of adopting effective and balanced energy programs in Washington, and the changing attitudes of environmentalists towards using oil from certain regions along with the need for education to address misunderstandings about energy sources. Harold shares his insights on going public and then back to private with Continental and the benefits of being a private company, including longer-term planning and reduced pressure from quarterly reports. We also cover the significance of natural gas in reducing emissions, the challenge and necessity of lifting the ban on the export of American oil, Continental’s progress in carbon capture technology, building a company culture that is fun and focused, what it means to run on "Hamm-time," and more.
Apart from his contributions to the energy sector, Harold’s philanthropic pursuits are equally significant, and we discuss his efforts to bring down the cost of insulin and prescription drugs. In his support for education, the Harold Hamm Foundation, together with Continental Resources, established the Hamm Institute for American Energy at Oklahoma State University, serving as the nation’s premier institute for security, innovation and growth for all forms of energy. We are struck by Harold’s ability to tackle challenging or impossible missions (what you’ll hear as the "culture of the possible") and turn them into successes. We are immensely grateful for the time he shared with us today.
Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that this week would be a very heavy week of earnings, with roughly 35% of the S&P 500 companies reporting, and to expect some trading volatility. He also flagged that this week was a light week for economic stats and that the bond market has temporarily bought into a US soft landing scenario, which has pushed the 10-year yield above 4 percent. Also, with Harold Hamm being today’s guest and a key proponent of an alternative to the WTI crude oil contract, we highlight the American Gulf Coast crude oil contract that he has advocated, which is trading at ~$82.50/bbl. and ~$1.25/bbl. premium to WTI. Mike rounded out the discussion by noting this also would be a heavy reporting week for the energy sector, particularly US & Canadian E&Ps, Midstream and Refiners. Arjun Murti built on Mike’s comments with two key themes that oil demand has not peaked and is still growing, especially with global demand growth from countries like India and continents like Africa, and that desp
Today we had the pleasure of hosting Nancy Jacobson, Founder & CEO, and Ryan Clancy, Chief Strategist, from No Labels. No Labels is a non-profit organization based in Washington, D.C. dedicated to seeking common sense, bipartisan solutions to America’s most pressing issues and advocating for policies that benefit the American people. Since their establishment in 2010, No Labels’ congressional allies have played a significant role in shaping important legislation including the $900 billion COVID-19 relief bill, the infrastructure investment and jobs act, and the bipartisan safer communities act. Today, No Labels is preparing for the possibility of nominating a third-party candidate to run in the 2024 Presidential Election through a unity ticket.
From our perspective, one of the factors that is always a big variable in energy is the political world’s ability to lead thoughtfully around energy, which is also directly related to the political world’s ability to cooperate, debate, and come to good answers with all objectives and all considerations at the table. We’re interested in how the policy debate changes, which is directly influenced by the country’s leadership. We were thrilled to visit with Nancy and Ryan to hear about their team’s latest efforts.
In our discussion, Nancy provides background on No Labels’ ongoing efforts to secure a ballot line in every state, which would enable them to present a unity ticket option in the 2024 Presidential Election. As you will hear, No Labels recently released the “Common Sense Policy Booklet” (linked here), which presents 30 ideas they believe most Americans agree on. Nancy and Ryan share the extensive surveying and work that went into crafting the booklet as well as the prevalent dissatisfaction among the public with the political system. We discuss the importance of civic education, reactions No Labels has received from other groups in Washington, support and criticism they’ve encountered, the challenges with America’s primary system, and No Labels’ social media strategy. Nancy and Ryan also share No Labels’ measures for success and their overall goal to get both parties to listen to the common sense majority and offer alternative ideas that resonate with a broader base of Americans. We learned a lot about No Labels’ efforts and hope you find the discussion as fascinating as we did.
For further reading, we found this article (linked here) by Joe Lieberman in the Wall Street Journal about No Labels particularly interesting.
Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, where the FED is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. He flagged that WTI crude price was closing in on $80/bbl. which is well above the high end of its recent 3-month trading range. He also highlighted that WTI price has blown through its 200-day moving average (the first time in roughly 12 months) and that Brent & WTI crude oil time spreads (prompt & 12-month spreads) have moved into steeper backwardation signaling a tighter "physical" crude oil market. He further highlighted that trader sentiment has quickly shifted from one of serious oil market "demand" concerns to one of supply concerns, which is a much better setup for investors. Mike also mentioned that over the last few weeks, equity market breadth has broadened to S&P sectors that have lagged this year. He rounded out the discussion by noting that this week will be heavy on Q2 energy results across a broad range of energy & mining subsectors including natural gas E&Ps, onshore & offshore oil service, US oil majors, coal & metal miners and leading US solar companies. Jeff Tillery chimed in with his observations and ques
Today we were delighted to host James Calaway in our office in Houston for a broad discussion on mining, solar energy, and the energy transition. James is a solar and lithium industry veteran with a unique background centered on his desire to help the world reduce emissions and as he describes, “save the planet from killing itself.” He is the former chairman of Orocobre, has considerable experience with Chilean solar projects, and is currently the Executive Chairman of Ioneer. Ioneer is advancing the Rhyolite Ridge Lithium-Boron project in Nevada, which is projected to help power upwards of 50 million electric vehicles. We were thrilled to visit with James.
In our conversation, James first walked us through his fascinating background that started with an interest in arms control and traversed co-founding Space Industries, entering the oil business, studying battery technology, investing in Orocobre, a lithium company in Argentina, retiring from Allkem after its successful growth, and becoming involved with Ioneer. We discuss the difficulty of building on Federal lands and the cost of construction in the US versus China, the future of battery technology, how to approach mining projects from an economic standpoint, and the potential for a future supply-demand issue for lithium around 2028. James shares his experience securing a loan for Ioneer through the US Loan Programs Office and the company’s experience with the community and government surrounding their project in Nevada. We also discus responsible mining globally, the opportunities and challenges with hydrogen, James’ experience with solar and hydrogen in Chile, and his desire to see the oil and gas industry lower emissions and fully participate in the energy transition. It was a fascinating and wide-ranging conversation and we greatly appreciate James for sharing his time and perspectives.
Mike Bradley kicked us off with an update on the markets, noting the major driver this week has been the exceptional earnings from banks and brokerages and that equity markets seem to be in a bit of a “Goldilocks” phase, where the DJIA, SP& 500 and Nasdaq are all approaching record levels last seen in December 2021, despite 2-year yields increasing by 400 basis points. He highlighted that a “soft landing” scenario is gaining consensus and that equities are experiencing a bit of a “fear of missing out.” Mike also reiterated that crude oil markets have repriced back to backwardation and that the recent move higher in crude price is more a reflection of improving demand sentiment. He wraps up by discussing recent news including last week’s Denbury and Exxon merger announcement, the irony of BlackRock naming Aramco’s CEO to its board, the beginning of oil service earnings season this week with several oil service leaders reporting, and flags that next week’s reporting will be heavy natural gas levered E&Ps. Jeff Tillery added to Mike’s earnings comments and mentioned the tendency to over-interpret pricing reductions during activity hiccups and differentiating between realized pricing and anecdotal pricing in Q2 results and Q3 guidance. He also highlighted the need for a more nuanced discussion around inventory degradation and that the bar for the oil service sector is set higher for the upcoming earnings season after performing well over the past three months.
We hope you enjoy the conversation with James as much as we did. Our best to you all!
Today we had the pleasure of hosting Dr. Sama Bilbao y León, Director General of the World Nuclear Association ("WNA"). Sama joined the WNA as Director General in late 2020 and has had an extensive career in nuclear with over 20 years of experience in nuclear engineering and energy policy, serving in industry, academia, and international organizations. The World Nuclear Association represents the global nuclear industry to promote the industry and importantly, provide authoritative information to key organizations and political authorities. We were delighted to connect with Sama for a global nuclear discussion. It was spectacular and wide-ranging and we so enjoyed Sama’s practical nature and worldwide perspective.
To start the discussion, Sama outlined the organization’s history and current member base of over 190 members in 44 countries. The WNA’s members are responsible for most of world uranium mining, conversion, enrichment and fuel fabrication; all reactor vendors; major nuclear engineering, construction, and waste management companies, and much of the world’s nuclear generation. We discuss how the perception of nuclear energy has changed since Sama joined in 2020 and the organization’s key areas of focus including working with policy makers and market designers globally to develop pragmatic policies for low-carbon energy sources, engaging the finance community to support profitable nuclear projects, and developing a strong global supply chain and talent pool. Sama shares her perspective on the state of nuclear in almost every part of the world, the opportunities for nuclear beyond electricity, financing and funding, novel applications, and the global supply chain. During the discussion, Sama mentions the periodic forecasts the WNA performs (the World Nuclear Association Fuel Report), linked here. Sama is one of the original founders of the North American Young Generation in Nuclear (linked here) and we touch on the importance of drawing new talent and fostering diversity, inclusivity and equity within the global nuclear community. We also cover nuclear power in the developing world and the opportunity for nuclear power to serve as a catalyst for social and economic development with collaboration between nuclear organizations and development banks. For more nuclear news, the World Nuclear News website is linked here. The entire discussion with Sama left us more bullish on the potential for greater use of nuclear power globally.
The Veriten team kicked off the show: Mike Bradley highlighted two key economic stats this week (June CPI & PPI) which could influence interest rate policy at the July 26th FOMC meeting. He also noted the recent trade higher in WTI crude oil price (higher end of its recent $65-$75/bbl. trading band) due to OPEC’s & Saudi’s commitment to maintain their respective production cuts through August as well as China taking additional economic stimulus steps. He noted that these actions have shifted both Brent and WTI structure from contango back to backwardation. Mike flagged last week’s energy equity sector outperformance and noted a few recent interesting equity market developments including an upcoming Nasdaq 100 rebalance (July 24th) which could result in temporary weakness in several of its largest AI/Tech equity members. He also noted another construction setback for the Equitrans Mountain Valley Pipeline and wrapped up by highlighting Oklo Inc. (an advanced fission technology company) announcing a deal to go Public via Merger with AltC Acquisition Corp. (a Sam Altman led SPAC). Oklo’s press release is
We are very pleased today to be sending you a special 4th of July COBT. For our Canadian friends, we hope you had a fantastic Canada Day this past Saturday. For all of you celebrating the 4th today, we hope the baseball, hot dogs and apple pie are all flowing! With some grilling of course!
For today’s special show, we were delighted to host our dear friend Rob West. Rob is the fascinating Founder and Lead Analyst at Thunder Said Energy. His background includes research at Redburn and Stanford C. Bernstein before he struck out on his own in 2019 to start Thunder Said. He has some of the most unique impressions, observations, and analysis on the changing energy world and we were delighted to have him. What we can also add is that we had the great honor of visiting with him live in Estonia on Sunday as part of the lead-in to today’s discussion. Getting to know Rob has been and continues to be great fun.
Today’s crew included Mike Bradley and Arjun Murti. With this being a critical half-year mark, Mike took some time in the lead-in to review market and energy sector statistics, changes in oil and natural gas rig counts, OPEC’s plans for cuts in production, and the significant market cap of tech giants compared to energy. Arjun chimed in and told his family’s remarkable story of coming to America and living the American dream. The story resonates as loud as ever on a day like today. Arjun also reminded us all of how "the energy transition needs to transition" to being one focused on the many billions of people outside of America, the US and Canada seeking the freedom and prosperity that comes from available reliable energy. Overall, Mike and Arjun really got us going as we turned to Rob.
The discussion with Rob today centered around a handful of key topics. First, his continued concern that we need to achieve energy surplus if we are ever going to achieve real decarbonization. His fear now, like ours, is that we are not only not heading towards energy surplus but we are instead headed for more energy shortages. Second, we discuss his latest thinking around AI and how it might be the answer to many of the world’s supply chain and logistical and even technological problems. AI is clearly the new new thing and it was really fun kicking it around with Rob. As a third big topic, Rob has more than a few thoughts about his adopted country Estonia, including the latest from its neighbor Russia. He tells the gripping story of how the recent events with Wagner were perceived in Estonia, and reminds us all how Estonia resisted EU efforts to get the country to switch to Russian natural gas back in the day. As we wrapped up, and as part of our 4th of July and overall "freedom and independence" theme, we reference a paper Rob penned on how energy (oil) supply determined the fate of so much of World War Two (available here). On this day when we pause to say thank you for our freedom, reflecting on the role of energy in national security seemed super appropriate. Rob’s article on the war and oil’s role is fantastic.
As you might recall, Rob has joined us on COBT before. The first time on January 4, 2022 (episode linked here) and more recently on November 20, 2022 (episode linked here). We don’t expect you to go back and listen/watch those, but some of you are becoming COBT history buffs so we at least want to give you that chance!
The first half of the year has been both eventful and stimulating. We count 32 COBT segments, 26 Super-Spiked pieces from Arjun, 8 Gener8 podcasts with Brett and Jeff, and 25 Market Wraps from Mike. Every week we feel like we get a little bit
Today we had the pleasure of hosting John Bear, CEO of MISO (Midcontinent Independent System Operator), for a fantastic discussion. John has served as CEO since 2009 and joined the organization in 2004. In his 30+ years of executive leadership in the utility industry, John formerly served as the President of Reliant Resources, on the President’s Nuclear Energy Advisory Council, and is currently the Chair of the Board of Directors for the Energy Systems Network along with other notable board positions including EPRI. MISO is a non-profit organization with a unique member base that serves 45 million Americans and Canadians from the Gulf of Mexico to Manitoba. We were thrilled to visit with John to learn more about MISO’s history and future, along with getting John’s perspective on what it’s like to operate a grid of MISO’s scale today.
John first provides background on the team at MISO, their market, envisioning the grid of the future, and operating reliably and efficiently. We discuss the diversity of use in their coverage area and the advantage of diversity in weather, how operating and managing a grid has changed, John’s perspective on adding large amounts of solar and wind, and the regulatory and supply chain issues delaying installation of new assets. We cover MISO’s current energy supply mix and the risks associated with shutting down dispatchable plants too quickly when adding intermittent sources to the mix, the new seasonal MISO capacity market, growth in electricity demand over the next twenty years, MISO’s Reliability Imperative program to address generation and transmission challenges, and the role for natural gas in MISO’s future. We also discuss the paramount importance of reliability and affordability and the potential of advanced nuclear supply. It was a thought-provoking discussion and we’re thankful to John for joining us and to the team at MISO for the important work they’re doing.
Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting the chaotic events in Russia over the weekend. He flagged strong economic stats yesterday (new home sales and consumer confidence) as examples of what may lead to further FED rate increases. He noted crude prices are currently dominated by economic issues rather than geopolitics and that 12-month time spreads (Dec-Dec) are at their lowest backwardation levels this year, which could be predicting a 2H’23 supply deficit not as wide as many hoped. He wrapped up by highlighting a trend where major electric utilities are divesting/selling their unregulated renewables businesses to focus exclusively on their regulated electric utility business. Jeff Tillery chimed in with his observations following the Russian events and noted the increasing awareness the general population has about the importance of grid operators.
Thanks again to John for a wonderful discussion and thanks to you all!
Today we had the very interesting opportunity to visit with Professor Jesse Jenkins of Princeton University. Jesse is an Assistant Professor with a joint appointment in Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering and the Andlinger Center for Energy and Environment. He has an extensive background in engineering systems and technology, getting his Ph.D. at MIT and his undergraduate degree in Computer and Information Science at the University of Oregon. He leads Princeton’s ZERO Lab (Zero-Carbon Energy Systems Research and Optimization Lab), a research group focused on evaluating carbon-free energy systems using optimization modeling in terms of policy, engineering, and economics. We were thrilled to spend time with him and get a chance to better understand what has gone into the team’s work as well as the outputs (by energy flavor) their work implies is possible. Importantly, Jesse and his team believe we can rebuild and expand our electricity system by 2050 but still do so within the acceptable boundaries of reliability and cost. Jesse and his team also believe (and highlight) we can avoid a significant amount of premature deaths associated with air pollution by embracing the future suggested by their energy models.
In our conversation, Jesse first provides background on his research focus and the modeling tools his team has built to understand how to best push the energy system forward using new technologies and how to develop policies that push our energy system towards a zero-carbon outcome in 2050. Jesse and his team’s research have been highly influential in the climate and energy policy debates that led to the passage of the IRA, so it was truly a thrill to connect with him. His team has identified five pathways to Net-Zero, all with significant reliance on wind and solar and to varying degrees of other flavors. We discuss reliability and cost, the challenges and execution risks involved in implementing new technologies at scale, and the sensitivity analysis Jesse’s team conducted to identify key factors driving the cost and composition of the system. We touch on considerations around efficient spending and the scale of investment required, the difficulty of states managing their energy infrastructure differently, “accountability” when the power isn’t available, the role of hydrogen and its potential impact on the grid, as well as the Clean Hydrogen Production Tax Credit. We had a hard time ending the discussion and, for our final question, asked Jesse what technology he is most excited to see make progress in the next ten years. As you will hear, he is very excited about the potential for EVs. Please take a minute and review these pieces of work to better understand the scenarios Jesse describes. We can’t thank him enough for joining us and greatly enjoyed the conversation. We also told him to send some of those energy-curious Princeton grads our way!
Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting the FED could be pressured to continue hiking rates based on strong economic reports and noted crude oil prices continue to trade in a tight range due to an ongoing battle between financial and physical crude markets. He further mentioned that broader equity market volatility is low and that equity markets are technically overbought as momentum investors continue to chase for fear of missing out. He then flagged several key events and recent M&A deals, as well as ERCOT’s warning to residents to conserve power this week. Brett Rampal also joined and added his power perspective to the discussion.
Thank you, as always, for your support and friendship!
For today’s COBT, we had the pleasure of hosting our good friend and award-winning columnist Liam Denning. Liam is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering the energy sector and was previously with the Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times. He has nearly twenty years of experience covering energy and has experience in energy investment banking and consulting. We were thrilled to connect with Liam to discuss his recent article, “Hiding an Army at the Top of the World.” The article touches on several timely and important factors including military forces, geopolitics, the climate, the potential for greater access to Arctic trade routes, and oil and gas as well as broader resources development in the region.
Liam first provides background on how he got involved with the Army and the interesting connection he formed with a war photographer interested in the Arctic. For the story, the two partnered to provide on-the-ground reporting on the Army’s activities in Alaska. We discuss the increasing accessibility of the Arctic due to warming and the related geopolitical implications, Liam’s experience visiting the US Army’s Northern Warfare Training Center in Alaska, and the challenges of operating in the harsh Arctic environment. We also cover the recent debates around oil and gas development in Alaska in light of Russia’s aggressive plans in the Arctic, the Chinese perspective and the involvement of other countries in the Arctic including Norway, Finland, and Canada. Liam shares his perspective on the changes he’s witnessed in the oil and gas industry over the past fifteen years and the importance of adapting to maintain relevance and his view on the role of major oil companies in the energy transition. It was a fascinating conversation and we want to thank Liam for joining us.
To start the show, Mike Bradley highlighted that May CPI printed slightly below consensus while core CPI printed slightly above consensus. He noted traders will be focused on the Wednesday morning PPI print and afternoon FOMC Rate Decision, where odds favor the FED temporarily pausing rate hikes. He then flagged that Saudi’s announcement last week of a 1mmbpd crude oil production cut (set for July) has not been enough to stabilize crude oil. He noted several crosscurrents that are influencing this crude oil volatility, all of which are challenging whether this current weakness is physical or financial related. He wrapped by noting Shell’s Capital Markets Day on Wednesday will be a focus for investors as the first formal opportunity for Shell’s new management to lay out their end of decade vision, which could provide a roadmap to narrowing the 2-3 multiple point valuation discount to the US oil majors. Arjun Murti built on some of Mike’s themes and highlighted the difference in energy perspectives between the UK, Europe, the US, and the rest of the world. He also teed up the discussion of the role of the oil and gas industry outside of its core, prepping us for our discussion with Liam.
We are eager to see what Liam writes next and hope you find this topic as interesting as we do. Thanks to you all!
Today we had the pleasure of visiting with Thomas Fox, President and Director of Innovation at Highwood Emissions Management. Thomas has an impressive academic and commercial background in emissions and from our previous interactions with him, we knew he could tackle the issues in a measured way that would help us all. While obtaining his Ph.D., Thomas invented LDAR-Sim (Leak Detection and Repair Simulator) – it is now used widely by industry, regulators, and innovators to approve new technologies and understand how to deploy them. Headquartered in Calgary, Highwood works with producers, technology solution providers, and regulators to tackle the challenge of emission management solutions.
Our discussion centered around an in-depth presentation by Thomas. In the presentation, Thomas covers the multiple motivations for why oil and gas companies are paying more attention to emissions, the complexity of measuring emissions and the technology involved, how to reduce emissions and get the best value for your spend, how to prove that you’ve reduced emissions (and get the credit for it), and how to prepare for the future and the future of the emissions monitoring landscape.
After Thomas’s presentation, we discuss how emissions will be factored into M&A activity, where the intensity of emissions is highest, how companies analyze opportunities to decarbonize vs. the cost of mitigation, and the competitive technology landscape. As you will hear, Thomas anticipates methane from oil and gas in North America will be largely solved in the next five years. We want to thank Thomas for joining us today and for providing such a detailed analysis.
Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that last week, traders were focused on two macro events, the OPEC+ meeting and the US Debt Ceiling Deal. He flagged OPEC+ agreed to cut crude production by 1mmbpd, with Saudi Arabia taking on all the cuts starting in July. Since October 2022, OPEC quota reductions total ~3mmbpd and the recent cuts primarily relate to 2H’23 demand concerns. Mike also flagged global S/D deficit estimated for 2H’23 is ~1.5mmbpd, and that these additional production cuts would ensure global inventories draw substantially in 2H’23 and should provide a crude oil floor. He then noted the US debt ceiling deal initially boosted bonds, commodities, and equities, but there hasn’t been follow through since. Mike wrapped by noting the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is trading at historically low levels, indicating equity markets are dialing in low risk levels, and that energy companies pursuing aggressive buybacks may want to consider retaining more cash on their balance sheets for future opportunities. Todd Scruggs joined for today’s discussion and added his thoughts around a recent Goldman Sachs report that lowers the odds of a recession, along with a Wall Street Journal article discussing ESG proposals to address scope 3 emissions and the vote outcomes. He also noted the equity market breadth remains narrow, with buying centered on a handful of AI/tech related equities.
We learned a lot in our conversation with Thomas and hope you will find it as useful and informative as we did. Our best to you all!
Today we had the pleasure of visiting with Pavel Molchanov, Managing Director of Renewable Energy and Clean Technology Research at Raymond James. Pavel joined Raymond James as an Associate 20 years ago and actually first began coverage of the new energy space in 2006. His team currently covers all aspects of sustainable-themed technologies including solar, wind, biomaterials, electric vehicles, hydrogen, power storage, grid modernization, water technology, and more. We were excited to connect with Pavel and get his perspective on stocks, investors, trends, technologies and transition public policy. In the discussion, we cover the broad space that Pavel and his team observe.
In our conversation, Pavel first provides a few of his big-picture observations on the energy space and how it has changed in the course of his career. We discuss the future of coal in particular and its role in the global energy system, the various energy sources and assumptions that would be required to entirely phase out coal, and the potential increase in energy costs associated with transitioning away from coal and the impact on economic development. Pavel shares his perspective on the different growth rates and dynamics between the clean tech sector and oil and gas, and the challenges clean tech companies face to drive adoption and become more cost competitive. We also discuss the large number of clean energy stocks that went public during COVID-19, ESG in the clean technology universe, investor attitudes, the Raymond James investor base, and more. The discussion ended up being a fascinating blend of the global energy system and the changes underway, and how all that shows up in individual stocks. We are grateful to Pavel for his time and insights, but are particularly appreciative of his “ask me anything” approach to the whole conversation. Thank you again, Pavel!
Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that commodity and equity markets didn’t respond as positively as many had hoped for given news of a tentative debt ceiling agreement over the weekend. Given current select Republican rumblings, markets are now going to wish to see solid evidence that the current tentative deal can obtain passage before the end of this week. He highlighted that the upcoming OPEC meeting on June 4th could be one of the more important meetings in quite some time given that Saudi’s Oil Minister (warning oil speculators) and Russia’s Oil Minister (saying no added production cuts) seem to be messaging differently when they should be showing unity. Todd Scruggs also joined for today’s discussion and added his insights and questions to the discussion.
Thank you, as always, for your support and friendship!
As we head into Memorial Day Weekend, we are excited to share this Special Edition with Brigadier General Kevin Ryan (U.S. Army Retired). During his service with the Army, Kevin served in air and missile defense, intelligence, and political-military policy areas in Europe, Korea, and Iraq. Kevin was formerly head of the Moscow office of the POW/MIA Commission and served as Senior Regional Director for Slavic States in the Office of Secretary of Defense and as Defense Attaché to Russia. He is currently an Associate Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and recently wrote an article entitled “ Why Putin Will Use Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine.” With Kevin’s background and experience, we were very interested in visiting with him to discuss Russia broadly.
In our conversation, Kevin first provides background on the current dynamics between Russia and Ukraine. After a year of war, Russia currently occupies about 20% of Ukrainian territory, including Crimea. As Ukraine pushes back, Kevin suggests that if conventional escalation fails to stop Ukraine’s success, Russia may turn to other weapons, with nuclear weapons being the most likely choice. We discuss the potential methods Putin could employ, including a demonstration or the use of tactical nuclear weapons, and Putin’s efforts to convince the Russian people of the significance of the threat against Russia and the broader narrative he is constructing. While using a nuclear weapon would be unthinkable, Kevin argues that from a Russian perspective, it would be seen as a means for Putin to change the perception of Russia’s military strength and create fear in the rest of the world. You will also hear Kevin discuss Putin beginning to make the “Truman argument” for using nuclear weapons with his own people. In terms of proactive measures the United States and other nations can take, Kevin reiterates the importance of making it clear to Russia the catastrophic consequences of using nuclear weapons, preparations for addressing the medical and decontamination issues, and the possibility of providing Putin with an exit strategy to avoid the repercussions of his actions. While the use of a nuclear weapon is a hypothetical scenario, it is certainly extremely serious. We also discuss Putin’s motivations and the dynamics within the Kremlin, Putin’s platform of restoring Russian pride and the implications of his potential failure in the conflict, as well as the role of countries like China in the situation. It was a serious and thoughtful discussion.
We greatly appreciate Kevin’s time and perspective, as well as the work the Belfer Center is doing. For the extra curious, we have linked some of the best articles we have found on the Ukraine war below.
We hope you have a safe and happy Memorial Day. Like you, we are most thankful for and respectful of the brave men and women who have made the ultimate sacrifice for our freedom.
God bless you and God bless them.
Today we had the pleasure of hosting Takajiro Ishikawa in our office in Houston for a sweeping discussion of the technologies and broad topics influencing the future of energy. Tak is the President and CEO of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries America (MHIA). MHIA has 10,000 employees in the US spread over 66 locations and accounts for 20% of MHI’s global business. Tak is a seasoned executive with over thirty years of experience in the industry in both Tokyo and Houston, and since April 2022 has been leading MHIA’s efforts to deliver innovative and integrated solutions to the world. We were thrilled to visit with Tak.
In our conversation, Tak first provided fascinating background on the history of MHI and its formation 150 years ago to lead Japan’s industrial revolution. MHI’s formation has everything to do with Japan’s energy, industrial and supply chain security, something that every country is increasingly concerned about today. We split our time with Tak talking about MHI and Japan as a whole. It was fascinating.
As you will hear, Japan is by far the largest importer of LNG globally, and MHI was responsible for delivering a large portion of the LNG ships and shipyards in Japan. We touch on the intricacies of Japan’s location and the geological attributes, the limited options they have for solar and wind power, as well as the sensitivities around nuclear power in the country. Tak shares his perspective on how MHI is structurally organized, given their massive footprint, and how the company is pivoting from working on technologies that emit carbon to helping those same technologies reduce carbon emissions. We touch on the differences between the US and Japan in terms of deploying renewables at scale and MHIA’s hydrogen projects in Utah. We also cover Japan’s partnerships with other countries and technologies, the IRA’s global impact, Japan’s declining population, and much more. We ended with Tak’s long-term vision for MHIA. Overall, it was a riveting discussion and we greatly appreciate Tak’s enthusiasm for the industry and the future.
Mike Bradley kicked us off by highlighting that bond, commodity, and equity markets have been directionless due to the current U.S. debt ceiling talks and will likely continue this pattern until an agreement is reached. He also highlighted two upstream deals this week (one all cash and one all stock) and last week’s large midstream deal. He highlighted these deals to drive home the point that energy consolidation will continue to be robust (especially upstream consolidation) because a key investor concern, especially as it relates to the sustainability of significant return of/on capital programs beyond the next 2-3 years, are quality and quantity of future inventory. Arjun Murti prepped us for our discussion with Tak with an overview of Japan’s energy landscape and unique approach to secure a diversity of energy commodities, further driving the idea that no one model fits all.
We want to thank Tak for sharing his time and perspective with us today. Our best to you all!
It is our honor to welcome back Governor Mike Dunleavy of Alaska for today’s session. We hosted the Governor on COBT in July of 2022 and had much to cover since our last visit. Gov. Dunleavy moved to Alaska in 1983 and quickly became a proud local serving as a teacher, principal, and superintendent in Arctic communities before his 5-year term as a State Senator from 2013 – 2018. He was elected Governor in 2018 and was re-elected last November. We were thrilled to visit with the Governor to discuss energy in Alaska and preview the Alaska Sustainable Energy Conference taking place next week in Anchorage with an exciting lineup of speakers and topics.
We begin the discussion with an update from Gov. Dunleavy on the current energy outlook in Alaska and the state’s unique conditions that allow for a plethora of energy types including oil, gas, biomass, nuclear, coal, geothermal, on and offshore wind, tidal, and solar. Gov. Dunleavy shares his perspective on the Willow project and the state’s support for energy production, including LNG and Alaska’s relationships with Asia. We then discuss the Sustainable Energy Conference and some of the keynote speakers including Dr. Dan Yergin, Vice Chairman of S&P Global, Rahm Emanuel, United States Ambassador to Japan, and David Turk, Deputy Secretary, U.S. Department of Energy to name a few. The conference will examine the future of energy in Alaska and around the world, the intersection of geopolitical upheaval with food and energy security, advancements in renewable power, transmission, storage, and more. We also touch on geopolitics and security, minerals and mining, Alaska’s nuclear adoption, labor markets, the opportunities in Alaska, and the all-in approach the state is taking. We ended with Gov. Dunleavy’s thoughts for what the world looks like in 2024 with the next US Presidential election. It was wonderful to visit with the Governor and hear the progress Alaska has made over the past ten months.
Mike Bradley kicked us off and highlighted that over the last couple of weeks, bond, commodity, and equity markets have been directionless due to the U.S. debt ceiling showdown. He further indicated that a favorable debt ceiling resolution could result in some outsized gains but should prove transitory. He also pointed out talks this week for a potential U.S. SPR crude oil purchase in August (3 million sour barrels) which is peanuts compared to the 270 million barrels that have been sold from the SPR over the last two years. Mike also highlighted the recent natural gas rally and the potential for additional Haynesville rig drops by end of summer. He concluded the conversation by highlighting ongoing midstream consolidation activity. Jeff Tillery added to Mike’s midstream comments with an observation on diversifying assets in North America as they mature. Brett Rampal also joined and peppered in his nuclear perspective in the discussion.
We want to thank the Governor for his time. If every Governor knew energy as well as Governor Dunleavy, the country would be a better place. We hope you enjoy the discussion as much as we did and consider attending the Alaska Sustainable Energy Conference!
Today it was our pleasure to host the New Jersey Economic Development Authority (NJEDA) for an offshore-wind and infrastructure focused session. With Governor Murphy’s leadership, the NJEDA is working to position New Jersey as a hub for US offshore wind and the organization is currently managing the development of a 200-acre wind port off the southern coast of the state. Joining us from the NJEDA are Tim Sullivan, CEO, Jen Becker, Vice President, Offshore Wind, and Jonathan Kennedy, Vice President, Infrastructure/NJ Wind Port. Together, they have a great amount of experience in public policy and planning: Tim is a native New Jerseyan and his background is in investment banking. He was formerly Deputy Commissioner of the Connecticut Department of Economic and Community Development and the Chief of Staff to the New York City Deputy Mayor. Jen is a public policy strategist and urban planner with 25 years of experience and Jonathan has a public infrastructure and finance focused background with US and international experience. We were thrilled to visit with the team and dive into project details.
Our conversation started with Tim’s background and journey to joining the Governor’s staff and the NJEDA, the strategic and economic opportunities the wind port will provide, and how this wind port is unique in that it will host the infrastructure for both manufacturing and deployment/instillation of offshore wind. Jonathan shares his perspective on the commercial significance of the project, the state’s role in investing in the infrastructure, and the scale of the project. We then discuss the competition for offshore wind economic benefits and how the wind port has the potential to supercharge the South Jersey economy. Jen provides key information on the workforce involved and the state’s partnerships with schools, universities and labor unions to develop a talent pipeline. The wind port will not only help add offshore wind to the state’s power mix but will be a manufacturing hub for the wind industry and support tens of thousands of jobs. Another feature of the wind port is the potential for New Jersey to significantly increase domestic wind-related manufacturing and become an exporter of such products. The location is also well positioned in that the continental shelf is relatively shallow and allows for turbines to be installed 15 – 55 miles offshore. It also happens to be next to the Salem nuclear power plant which presents its own benefits (and challenges). Nuclear currently holds 40% of the state’s power mix and we discuss what the mix will look like in the future with an increase in wind and solar power. Overall, we are greatly impressed with this innovative and unique initiative and can’t thank the NJEDA team enough for sharing their insights.
Mike Bradley kicked us off by relaying that over the last week, markets have been directionless as they await Wednesday’s April CPI & PPI results. Markets also continue to worry about additional regional banking stress and an unresolved US debt ceiling limit. He also highlighted that WTI price over the last week was stable but still trades at the lower end of its 5-month trading range due to growing recessionary concerns. He then shared notable trends from Q1 earnings season including a disconnect between the financial market and demand for US refiners, oil service call discussion dominated by rig/frac drops and current/future pricing guidance, and wrapped with key themes from E&Ps. Jeff Tillery joined today’s session and chimed in with his thoughts on the OFS sector moving past Q1 earnings season.
We’re excited to follow the wind port project’s progress and hope you enjoy the discussion as much as we did!
Today we had the exciting opportunity to host George Bilicic, Vice Chairman and Global Head of Power, Energy and Infrastructure at Lazard. George has had a long and distinguished career including his time as a Partner at Cravath, as President of Sempra, and 20 years at Lazard in the investment banking business. We were thrilled to visit with him in our office in Houston.
Our discussion centered around Lazard’s recently released 2023 Levelized Cost of Energy, Storage and Hydrogen Analyses. As you will see, we picked a handful of what we thought were the key pages from the full report and asked George to walk us through them. We kicked off the broader discussion with George by getting more background on this now very well-known annual report, hit some of the key themes and predictions, and also discussed the process involved in gathering the data. One of the items we discussed was the analysis not just of the levelized cost of energy comparison but also the same analysis with the cost of “firming” added (to adjust for intermittency). George shares some of the feedback they’ve received about the report from around the globe and how the firm uses the work as a discussion piece with everyone from governments to investors to companies to university students. We also discuss his perspective on global attitudes around the IRA, Lazard’s recent Climate and Energy Transition Conference, supply chain risks looking forward, the difficulties in calculating total value, and the potential for consolidation in the alternatives/renewables/power/utility space. Toward the end of the discussion, we touch on Lazard’s recent formation of a Geopolitical Advisory Group and the rationale for the effort. We ended with asking George what an LCOE report might look like in ten years. As you will hear, he had a fun and interesting answer. Overall, we had a great visit with George and can’t thank him enough for joining us today.
Mike Bradley started the show by relaying that commodity and equity markets are very volatile, and to the downside, given poor recent economic data and uneasiness heading into Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. He highlighted several observations including an equity market (S&P 500) that’s been directionless and stuck in a very tight trading range. He shared that unlike the S&P 500, which is trading at the upper end of its recent trading range, WTI price is testing the lower end of its 5-month trading range, mostly due to growing recessionary risk concerns. He also emphasized that this will be an extremely heavy earnings week dominated by E&Ps, Midstream and Refiners. He concluded by highlighting two main themes to expect from E&P calls, lower 2H’23 oil service cost inflation and return on capital programs leaning more heavily into share buybacks. Brett Rampal also joined today and offered his nuclear perspective in the discussion as well.
Thanks to you all. We hope you enjoy!
We had a fantastic Africa-focused session today with Andrew Kamau, Managing Director of International Programs at the Energy Opportunity Lab, an initiative of Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP). Prior to joining the Energy Opportunity Lab, Andrew was the Principal Secretary, Ministry of Petroleum and Mining with the Government of Kenya and former Principal Secretary in the State Department of Petroleum with the Government of Kenya. He has over thirty years of experience in the energy, oil and gas, and mining sectors and is working to identify ideas and projects to empower people and communities with accessible energy solutions. Andrew joined us from Nairobi and is incredibly knowledgeable of the challenges and opportunities for increasing access to energy in Africa and developing countries.
We covered a lot of territory in our conversation starting with the current priorities of the Energy Opportunity Lab and what Andrew describes as a "leapfrog issue" with those who would like to see Africa skip fossil fuels and jump to renewables. We also discuss new LPG technologies that allow customers to pay as they go, how the US can get more involved with LPG projects in Africa, and the large amount of geothermal power in Kenya. Andrew flags that the competition between the US and Europe to advance renewable technologies is welcomed as it will ultimately help get those technologies to the rest of the world at a lower price. Andrew also shares his perspective on the sources of capital that may invest in developing Africa and the potential strings attached, the steps Andrew would take to unlock more economic development, and the realities behind mining in Africa. We then touch on the work the Energy Opportunity Lab is doing to develop investable projects and the initial funding needed to move an idea from "concept" to "bankable."
We are always particularly thankful for conversations focused on developing world energy needs. We learn a lot and we always refocus on the priority of eliminating poverty. Andrew’s answer to what the energy world looks like in ten years is particularly good. It was our absolute pleasure to host him and we are thankful for his time.
Mike Bradley kicked us off by indicating that markets had been laser-focused on an end to FED interest rate hikes and perceived US banking "stability" post the Silicon Valley Bank Rescue but now have quickly shifted towards Q1 results and 2023 earnings revisions which could be headed lower. He highlighted several observations from this week, previewed some to expect next week, and wrapped by observing that this will be an extremely heavy week for energy sector Q1 results (dominated by natural gas E&Ps, offshore & onshore oil service companies and European & US Oil Majors). Jeff Tillery flagged an uptick in interest around turning deepwater back on.
As always, thanks to you all for your support and friendship!
We are thrilled to be sharing this Special Edition COBT with you. The new film "Nuclear Now" is just a week away from hitting theaters and we had the opportunity to not only see it early but also to visit with the film’s acclaimed director, Oliver Stone, as well as Professor Joshua Goldstein, the co-writer of the book that inspired the film ("A Bright Future: How Some Countries Have Solved Climate Change and the Rest Can Follow"). Oliver is an Academy Award-winning director, screenwriter, producer, and author of "Chasing the Light." As you may know, some of his renowned work includes "Scarface," "Platoon," "Born on the 4th of July," "Wall Street," and "Midnight Express." Professor Goldstein is an award-winning scholar of international relations and an expert on war and society. Mike Bradley, Brett Rampal and I had the pleasure of hosting Oliver and Josh, talking about the key aspects of the movie, and delving where we could into the broader issues the movie raises.
In our discussion, Oliver describes how a review of "A Bright Future" in the New York Times sparked his interest in nuclear as part of the solution to address climate change. It took two and a half years to create the film, which covers not only the history of how the technology was developed but also its high and low moments in popular perception. We touch on Oliver’s takeaways from studying different aspects of American society and the overall misrepresentation of nuclear power that the film aims to correct. Josh provides background on how nuclear power and nuclear war became conflated, much to nuclear power’s detriment. We also discuss Admiral Hyman Rickover and his development of naval nuclear-powered submarines, the Hollywood community’s unfortunate portrayal of nuclear that’s added to the narrative over the years, and the team’s experience finding experts to interview as part of the film. Oliver also shares his perspective on international cooperation around nuclear and both he and Josh comment on the significant amount of fact checking that took place to create the film. “Nuclear Now" is technical in its approach and goes into significant detail around historical, existing, newer and future potential nuclear technology.
Nuclear Now opens to the public on May 1st in select theaters across the US and Canada. The film will also be available via streaming at a later date – you can sign up for updates on that release. If you are interested in more nuclear content, last month Veriten debuted a podcast dedicated entirely to the world of nuclear, power, and industrial heat called Gener8. We hope you can take time to dig in and learn more.
We want to thank Oliver, Josh, and the team behind Nuclear Now for improving the conversation around nuclear energy, for injecting more optimism into the energy/environment/climate discussion, and for spending an hour with us engaging on the film. We hope you all enjoy the film as much as we did!
Today we had the pleasure of hosting Saul Kavonic, Head of Integrated Energy, Resources and Carbon Research at Credit Suisse Australia. Saul is very well-regarded in the Australian and Asian energy community and joined us from Melbourne (on his Wednesday morning!). He was formerly the Head of Oil, Gas, LNG and Energy at Wood McKenzie and is a chemical engineer by training. We had an excellent and sweeping discussion with Saul and it was fascinating to hear his perspective from Down Under.
Saul first provides context on today’s Australian energy scene, the country’s geopolitical relationships with other Asian countries including Japan, and the influence the current (and relatively new) government is exerting on energy investment. Australia greatly impacts Japan’s LNG supply and has a unique vantage point of being interdependent with Asia but aligned culturally and from a security standpoint with the West. We discuss long-term contracts and issues around them, supply chain in "old" and "new" energy both, investor attitudes, and the types of companies Saul focuses on in his research. Saul shared he enjoys meeting energy executives and investors throughout the region and frequently asks them "where would you put $100 in the energy and energy transition space?" He provides a number of interesting potential answers. We also mention the potential for resource-driven conflict in an increasingly tense world and hear the sentiment from the region. We ended with a quick around the horn summary of where Saul, Arjun and Mike would invest their $100. Their answers were interesting!
Mike Bradley kicked us off with a market update and reported that markets have been relatively quiet for the past 4-5 days with bonds and commodities trading sideways. He flagged earnings beginning this week for oil service companies and that he expects the focus to be on pricing trends. Mike also noted copper prices are not at all-time highs, although there has been consolidation, and that LME stock levels are 50-55% lower than last year and 65-70% lower than the 5, 7, or 10-year averages. He wrapped by suggesting oil and copper prices could increase significantly if there is no recession this year. Arjun Murti also joined today’s session and shared his takeaways from last week’s CGEP events in New York, observing refreshing realism and pragmatism from policy makers including a recognition that Europe’s gas crisis is nowhere close to being over. Arjun also voiced his concern about optimism in Europe that a range of new technologies will ramp quickly and how that can feed a reluctance to fully embrace proven, reliable resources such as natural gas. He wrapped by flagging that coal consumption was likely to grow for the foreseeable future now that it is almost exclusively a developing market fuel source.
We greatly enjoyed our conversation with Saul and thank him for sharing his morning with us for the first SOBW - "Start Of Business Wednesday."
G’day mates! Our best to you all!
We had a fantastic session today with Arshad Mansoor, President and CEO of EPRI (Electric Power Research Institute). EPRI’s formation was initiated by Congress following the Great Northeastern Blackout of 1965 that left 30 million people in the US without electricity. Since then, the organization has served to support the electricity sector with research and development to drive technological innovations and ensure the public has access to clean, safe, and reliable electricity. While headquartered in the US, EPRI has a global presence, is in 40 countries, and has over 400 member companies. Arshad also has 1400 engineers and scientists on his team researching all aspects of electricity. Arshad first joined EPRI in 2006 and his passion for energy, electrification, electric vehicles and technology in general is undeniable. We were thrilled to visit with him for a power-focused and detailed discussion.
Arshad first provides background on EPRI’s history, their partnerships, and global presence. We then cover the importance of reliable electricity, how EPRI is adjusting their planning for reliability in the future and the scientific and technical approach that EPRI takes when evaluating power systems. We also discuss nuclear and the balance of increasing nuclear power while being mindful of budgets, EPRI’s support of both established and innovative nuclear technologies, and how the markets will ultimately pick the winners and losers of energy transition technologies. We then touch on carbon capture and storage’s role in the future, Arshad’s confidence that the US electric grid will support expanded electrification, and the goal to reduce energy-related costs for the average consumer in the US. Arshad also shares his perspective on how utilities view EVs, the "good versus good" involved in the energy transition, batteries and battery technology, the necessity of carbon capture in a net zero future, and more. We had a hard time ending the discussion and wrapped with the two areas Arshad feels need the most acceleration in the energy transition.
To start the show, Mike Bradley reviewed market activity and flagged that markets have been tame as they await this week’s important market-moving economic stats (CPI, PPI & Initial Jobless Claims). He noted market expectations for these stats, expectations for weekly total US inventories, and that EU storage levels are above seasonal averages which could take off pressure on EU natural gas prices. Mike ended with an update on the upcoming EPA gasoline emission rules and the potential implications of new stricter guidelines. Brett Rampal also joined today and peppered in his power perspective to the discussion.
Thanks to you all. We hope you enjoy!
Today we had the pleasure of hosting Lucas Arangüena, Global Head of Sustainable Tech and Group Head of Green Finance at Santander. Headquartered in Madrid, Santander is one of the leading European banks and the largest bank in Latin America. They are also the top financier of renewables globally and a leading advisor overall for M&A across renewables, hydrogen, battery tech, EV charging and energy storage, CCUS & ClimateTech, Biofuels, and AgriTech. Lucas joined Santander in 2010 and is responsible for advising clients globally in their energy transition as well as providing corporate finance advice across clean technologies. We were very interested to visit with Lucas and hear his perspective. As you will hear, the command Lucas has of so many of the technical features of today’s energy world is very impressive.
To start the discussion, Lucas first shares the four themes that are his current top areas of focus including the technology paradigm change taking place with the energy transition, electrification of everything and how to add capacity and storage facilities, advising clients on circular economies, and decarbonizing food, particularly protein, which Lucas cites as being responsible for more than 20% of global GHG emissions. His themes segued into a robust conversation on the future of hydrogen demand in Europe, Latin America’s potential and opportunity to help developed economies decarbonize, and Chile’s (solar and wind) and Brazil’s (hydro power) particular promise. We also discuss Santander’s depth and breath in the energy transition markets, touch on some of the projects they’ve financed in the US, Lucas’s and his group’s passion for technology, and the future of infrastructure and industry in Europe. We continued the conversation with the importance of having an orderly and fair transition, Santander’s decarbonization targets for energy, steel and aviation, the Net Zero Industrial Act compared to the IRA, the odd dynamics of Chinese and Korean battery companies benefiting from IRA tax credits, and Lucas’s perspective on the two greatest opportunities for decarbonization by 2030. We ended with the future of public and private debt with as countries continue to provide subsidies for the transition, developments in carbon capture, and the importance of taking action now to achieve decarbonization goals.
The Veriten team kicked off the show: Mike Bradley shared his observations on the surprise OPEC cut, noting it’s impact on pushing crude oil prices higher and how the last surprise cut in October 2022 also spiked prices over the ensuing weeks. He highlights several reasons why OPEC might have chosen to cut production and then discussed Ovintiv’s recent Permian shale acquisition. He wrapped up by noting that Glencore PLC launched an unsolicited bid for Teck Resources and concluded that both these recent deals, as well as a handful of deals announced last week, demonstrate that we’re still in the early innings of energy and mining consolidation and that the amount and size of future deals could be healthy. Jeff Tillery shared his thoughts around Q2 earnings with an emphasis on sustainable returns.
It was our pleasure to host Lucas and we want to thank him for sharing his perspective. We are excited to spend more time with him in the future.
Thanks to you all for your support and friendship!
Today we were delighted to host our good friend Ken Hersh, President and CEO of the George W. Bush Presidential Center. Prior to his position at the Presidential Center, Ken was the co-founder and long-time CEO of energy private equity firm NGP. Ken’s first COBT appearance was in November of 2020 and since our last visit, Ken has written a new book entitled "The Slowest Tortoise Wins the Race: Winning in Industries I Knew Nothing About." The book was officially published on Tuesday, March 28th and we couldn’t be more excited to visit with Ken and discuss the book. As you will hear, our whole team got (and read!) advanced copies and thoroughly enjoyed it.
In our conversation, we cover the broad array of topics Ken hits in the book and intersperse some of today’s energy hot button issues. We start with Ken’s inspiration for the book, cover some of the important moments in energy history that he has been a part of (the formation of Pioneer Natural Resources and of Energy Transfer, just to name a couple), re-live the journey of co-founding and leading NGP, and explore cultural and operational philosophies like "feeding your winners" and paying attention to signals ("yellow lights don’t turn green"). We also touch on the importance of betting on a team for the long-run, Ken’s early involvement championing energy technology and adaptation, the latest estimate of the IRA’s total cost and government spending in general, and what Ken describes as “leapfrog” opportunities in the energy transition. Ken walks us through his perspective on the clash between today’s fast-paced world and the deliberately slow institutions we have built in government and elsewhere, comments on the future of private equity, and some of the keys to building a collaborative and trusting culture. As we wrapped up, we of course probed him about what the future holds. In sum, we loved the book and the visit both.
Mike Bradley offered up five highlights/observations from the past week and for coming weeks. He observed that markets are becoming "Comfortably Numb," meaning investors are gaining "comfort" that systematic risks are lessening but "numb" in the sense that recession fears are still heightened. He also observed that bond yields are temporarily stabilizing because consensus believes (hopes) rate hikes are over and that the next move might be down in rates. He highlighted crude markets rebounding back to a previous trading range, near-term SPR refills by the Biden Administration looks to be fantasy, OPEC will likely not change their previous production policy at next week’s meeting, and that the energy sector has temporarily become more correlated with regional bank equities than crude oil price. Mike also flagged the handful of traditional and new energy deals announced over the last week. He wrapped by highlighting a Richard Rainwater quote "where there is chaos - there is opportunity," and applied this concept to the recent purchase of Silicon Valley Bank by First Citizens Bank. Jeff Tillery also joined for today’s engaging session.
We took a lot of lessons from visiting with Ken today and hope you enjoy it as much as we did. Our best to you all!
Today we were thrilled to welcome back our good friend Corby Robertson, Chairman of the Carbon Neutral Coalition (CNC). Corby’s extensive career includes over 40 years of global investment and operations in energy and natural resources and as a proud Texan, he is focused on what the state looks like in the decades to come. The CNC’s mission is for the state of Texas to be carbon neutral by 2050 and the organization is focused on the necessary education and regulatory changes to achieve their goal. As always, it was our pleasure to host Corby.
To help frame the discussion, Corby provides a detailed walkthrough of the organization, why the organization is focused on CCUS and their other objectives, and the importance of how the liability and regulatory aspects of CCUS are managed. We also hit on the organization’s management team and their community of advisory board members, the audience the organization is able to reach with social media, and studies that various universities are conducting on economic impact, as well as the incentive bills that could help us implement CNC’s proposals. Corby was last on COBT on March 26th, 2021, and so we also touch on the momentum CNC has created in the past two years, the bills they are currently supporting including the franchise tax credit, property tax credit and liability bills, the upcoming legislative session, and we wrap with Corby’s vision for a more vibrant Texas in ten years. It is fantastic to see the progress the CNC has made and we’re excited to watch and support their efforts in the years to come.
Mike Bradley kicked off the show flagging a few key items including the upcoming FOMC meeting (March 22nd), implications of rising rates and what markets are expecting (consensus = 25bp hike). He highlighted that high inflation, the FED aggressively hiking rates and recent banking instability all have roots in governments globally outspending. He rounded out the segment by noting that global crude oil price weakness has less to do with current supply/demand fundamentals and more to do with a global risk off trade, and that equity investors, though modestly more concerned with 2H’23 global demand, are even more concerned with global upstream underspend, which will support higher “normalized” commodity prices. Jeff Tillery touched on recession concerns and historical context of energy demand.
Thanks again to Corby for a fantastic discussion and thanks to you all for your support and friendship.
Today we were delighted to host Jarand Rystad, CEO of Rystad Energy. Jarand founded Rystad Energy in 2004 following a long tenure with McKinsey & Company to build an independent research and consulting company rooted in granular data. Rystad Energy tracks all energy sources, from production to consumption, to provide detailed analysis. We had a wonderful visit!
Our discussion explored a range of topics starting with Jarand’s background and inspiration for creating Rystad Energy, the company’s growth in scale and depth of analysis, the data and analytics the company tracks, Jarand’s day-to-day involvement, and the importance of adding energy transition supply chain capacity in the US and Europe. We also touch on the concept of energy transition vs. diversification, Jarand’s view on how new technologies and the free market will outcompete oil and gas, the role of nuclear, future supply and demand for electrification, Rystad Energy’s data on new energy materials, and more. We ended with Jarand’s view for the energy world ten years from now and walked away with a great appreciation for the work Jarand and Rystad Energy are doing.
To kick off the show, Mike Bradley presented a market update from the past week, including a closer look at the historic three-day decline (100bps) in 2yr US Government bond yields and why that’s changing the Federal Reserve’s previous hiking campaign of higher, faster, and longer to one that most market participants believe will be shifting to lower, slower, and shorter. He noted that the recent Silicon Valley Bank seizure had enormous implications for venture capital funding and that it would likely lead to less, higher cost and more stringent funding for Tech and New Energy startups. He wrapped up by reviewing recent events, including ConocoPhillips’ Alaskan Willow project approval, Aramco’s large boost in future capex spending, and a handful of key themes coming out of last week’s CERA Conference. Arjun Murti chimed in and emphasized the importance of understanding risk and finance controls within a company and what are inherently less sexy aspects of running an organization. He also flagged that all companies should be considering how international climate policy and regulations might impact them, even if those policies seem distant in location or time.
This week marks three years of COBT and we are thankful for all of your support along the way. Thank you to Jarand for being a fantastic guest to mark the occasion!
Today we had the pleasure of hosting Georges Tijbosch, CEO of MiQ in our office for a special edition COBT. Georges and his team are in town for CERAWeek and have made exciting announcements during the conference. MiQ is an independent non-profit organization that set up a framework to certify natural gas graded on methane leak levels. They are largely funded by philanthropic efforts and are committed to addressing methane issues in this decade, a mission we appreciate. Jeff Tillery, Mike Bradley and I greatly enjoyed visiting with Georges.
To help guide today’s discussion, Georges first provided background on the organization including the formation of the group, their technical process for evaluating emissions, how attitudes around methane emissions have changed in the past few years, and the organization’s interaction with the energy industry. In the past year, they have increased to certifying ~20% of US gas production. We also discuss the organization’s future plans, the advantage of being an independent group, the typical methane escape associated with natural gas production, Georges’ vision for ten years from now, the organization’s interactions with the investment community, and natural gas as a long-term solution for Europe. Earlier this week, MiQ announced that BP has certified 100% of its U.S. onshore upstream operations with MiQ. It was an exciting time to meet with Georges!
The conversation with Georges was far ranging and incredibly stimulating. For those of you like us who strongly believe in natural gas as an answer, Georges will have you thinking about not just how good an answer it can be but also about what can be the problems. You will also hear that so many of those problems are “low hanging fruit” and can be fixed and fixed soon. We are so glad Georges came by the office to visit during this busy CERA season.
We look forward to staying connected with the team at MiQ and watching their progress in the years to come. Thanks to you all!
It’s CERAWeek in Houston and we are excited to share another interesting global perspective on energy. Today we had the opportunity to visit with Dr. Lars Schernikau, economist, entrepreneur, commodity trader, and Co-Author of “The Unpopular Truth about Electricity and the Future of Energy.” He is also the author of "Economics of the International Coal Trade." Lars joined from Geneva and has twenty years of experience in commodities, particularly both basic energy and energy transition commodities / raw materials / minerals / etc. As you will hear, he’s incredibly passionate about energy, energy economies, and energy and environmental policy. We covered a fascinating and broad range of topics.
Our discussion spanned Lars’ vantage point from his experience as a commodities trader and exposure to the entire energy supply chain, coal markets and their importance to electricity, coal market development over the next five to ten years, and the inevitability of its appeal in Asia as affordable and reliable energy. Lars also shares fascinating data on global wind and solar irradiance, capacity issues that technology cannot fix, recent acknowledgement of looming Germany power capacity issues, challenges with long-range forecasting, the pressure on banking systems, and a few concepts Lars covers in The Unpopular Truth including full cost of electricity. We wrap with Lars’ perspective on nuclear and what Lars thinks the energy world will look like in ten years. Lars was a fantastic guest and we greatly enjoyed our conversation.
To kick off the show, Mike Bradley covered a market update from the past week, including a closer look at what’s happened in the last five days, and compared key themes from this year’s CERA conference to 2022. Jeff Tillery continued the CERA discussion with his highlights.
Thanks to you all. We hope you enjoy!
Today’s COBT episode is focused on Norway and in particular, the country’s technology, climate tech, and broader energy landscape. What most of us don’t realize about Norway is the country is the 7th largest natural gas producer in the world, is the single biggest supplier of natural gas to Europe, gets 90 percent of its own power from hydro, and is a major source of energy innovation.
We have three excellent guests to help guide the discussion including Karl Liapunov, Head of Energy at Startuplab, along with Arild Selvig, CEO of ZEG Power and Jørgen Festervol, CEO of Heimdall Power. Startuplab is Norway’s largest incubator and the country’s most active early-stage investor and both ZEG Power and Heimdall Power are graduates of Startuplab! It was our pleasure to host the group and we were excited to dig in.
Karl first provides context on Norway and background on Startuplab’s program, which receives 600 applications a year and provides a network of founders, mentors, investors, industry experts and corporate partners to help companies succeed. Karl also shares key highlights from Startuplab’s recent report, “Energy Transition & Climate Tech in Norway." We then turn to Arild and ZEG Power, which is focused on providing clean hydrogen with a uniquely simplified carbon capture process. Jørgen shares background on Heimdall Power and the company’s fascinating grid technology. With a good understanding of each company’s features and role in the Norwegian and potentially global energy landscape, we discuss the themes and types of companies Startuplab sees in the Norwegian energy market, where Hydrogen will be most valuable, the potential FERC requirement for dynamic line monitoring, Heimdall’s new Houston office, and more. We end the discussion with Karl, Arild, and Jørgen’s advice to early-stage companies and each had fantastic advice. We can’t thank them enough for joining!
Mike Bradley kicked off the show by flagging that the rise in US bond yields continues to be a headwind for US equity markets and will probably continue to be a headwind until the March 22nd FOMC meeting. He highlighted WTI crude oil price has been stuck in a relatively tight trading band (~$72-$82/bbl.) over the last 3-4 months and that energy companies are getting comfortable with that trading band and potentially a higher trading band for 2H’23. He also flagged the sharp rebound in an oversold natural gas market due to a late winter blast but also that S/D fundamentals are still out of balance. He wrapped by referencing the cross-border merger deal between Baytex Energy (Canadian-based) and Ranger Oil (Eagleford-based), and the possibility of an acceleration in 2023 E&P M&A. Todd Scruggs, Veriten’s senior partner focused on investments, rounded out the Veriten team for today’s session.
A big thank you to our friends in Norway for sharing their time and expertise and thanks to you all for your support and friendship!
We are excited to share with you this COBT Special Edition featuring our good friend Jigar Shah, Director of the US Department of Energy Loan Programs Office (LPO). The LPO is the largest private debt fund in the energy space with more than $400 billion available for innovative clean energy projects. As you will hear, Jigar and his team of 250 professionals at the LPO have immensely valuable insights as to what’s really happening with early-stage companies and technologies across the energy spectrum. Jeff Tillery, Brett Rampal and I had the opportunity to visit with Jigar ahead of CERAWeek for a check-in and for a preview of DOE’s plans for the event. It is amazing how much has transpired since our last COBT discussion about six months ago.
In our conversation, we touched on the LPO’s progress since Jigar joined, the 126 applications that have been processed seeking almost $120 billion in funds, Jigar’s assessment that the US is in a deployment-forward position, how the LPO manages risk, harnessing the information that the LPO office receives, which new energy sectors are reaching a tipping point, and the Nuclear, Hydrogen, and Long Duration Energy Storage reports that the office is rolling out during CERAWeek. We also discuss how EPC contract availability is impacting emerging energy projects, the difference between “industrial policy” and “industrial strategy,” the IRA, remedying fragile supply chains, the CHIPS and Science Act’s influence on loans and development, Fortune 500 companies and their role in the energy transition, and more. We greatly enjoyed talking with Jigar and have loved getting to know him over the last year. We hope you enjoy this Special Edition conversation as much as we did!
As we wrap up, we also wanted to share with you some developments with our team. Our longtime friend and partner Colin Fenton has decided to pursue new opportunities in his career and we are certainly sorry to see him move on. His thoughtfulness and creativity will be missed and we wish him massive success in his future endeavors.
All the best to Colin and to all of you as well!
Today we had the pleasure of hosting John Dowd, CEO of GoGreen Investments, in our offices. John has spent the past 30 years investing in and analyzing energy, most recently at Fidelity, and in 2021 raised over $275 million to create GoGreen Investments. A few months ago, GoGreen announced they were taking Lifezone Metals public, creating the first nickel resource listed on NYSE. We were thrilled to visit with John for a minerals and mining focused discussion.
Our conversation spanned several elements of the energy transition. We touch on John’s story and how and why he chose to focus on minerals, the GoGreen team, their nickel sulfide project in Tanzania, the geopolitics involved in mining, the massive amount of investment needed across the full energy spectrum, and the effects of the IRA on sourcing minerals around the world. We also discuss John’s observations on the energy transition from starting almost two years ago to today, investor attitudes and structural features of spacs, the technology involved in mining, electric vehicles overall, the auto companies and supply chains, lessons learned from oil and gas investing, political risks from Tanzania to Massachusetts, what Wall Street has right and perhaps wrong on energy investing today, and many more topics made possible by John’s thoughtfulness and his deep energy experience. We ended the session with John’s optimistic view for the energy world ten years from now.
Mike Bradley kicked off the show by flagging that the substantial move higher in Treasury yields (10 year - nearing 4%) was “taking the wind out” of the stock market. He also highlighted the continued plunge in US natural gas price with both prompt and the 12-month natural gas strip trading at/near two-year lows. He noted that with the current 12-month natural gas strip below $3.00/MMBtu that it would result in multiple natural gas rig drop announcements by E&Ps over the coming weeks/months. He ended the conversation by signaling that this week would be a very heavy week of Q4 energy reporting, and one dominated by E&Ps. Todd Scruggs also joined the crew for today’s discussion.
As always, thanks to you all for your support and friendship!
It was our honor today to welcome back our good friend Dr. Dan Yergin, Vice Chairman of S&P Global and Chairman of CERAWeek. As you all undoubtedly know, Dan is the Pulitzer Prize winning author of “The Prize,” the more recent author of “The New Map,” and is a highly esteemed and revered voice in the energy space. His achievements and contributions to the industry are immense and we were so thankful to have an hour of his time to discuss the state of the energy world.
We have spoken with Dan on COBT on two previous occasions. The episodes, although they took place in recent years, seem like they were eons ago. On May 5th, 2020 we visited with Dan during the initial depths of the COVID crisis. And just last year, we visited with Dan just days before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It’s stunning to think back on how different both of those worlds are from today.
As you will hear in today’s episode, the range of topics covered was extensive. The items and issues included the US SPR levels, the North / South divide on the energy transition, the challenges of expanding minerals supply, the IRA, the strong push governments are giving the energy transition, the talk and the mood at Davos, Dan’s perspective on European governments and their palpable return to reality on energy security, the different perspectives that will be showcased at CERA on the energy transition, and the US and China relationship. We also discussed Dan’s recent study on the future of copper, Dan’s view on natural gas and its long-term role, the automotive companies and their plans to go electric, how to plan in an energy boardroom with all this uncertainty, and observations on this year’s CERAWeek conference. No surprise... it was a fantastic, thought-provoking discussion!
Mike Bradley kicked off the show flagging a few key items including the Valentine's Day above expectations January CPI print, potential for decreased natural gas activity, and OPEC's 2023 supply / demand forecast in the face of a wobbly economy. He then framed us up for the discussion with Dan by looking at how WTI, Brent, natural gas prices, gasoline and a few other items have moved since Dan's last COBT appearance on February 22nd, 2022. Jeff Tillery also joined and peppered in his thoughts to the discussion.
As always, it was our pleasure to visit with Dan and we greatly look forward to CERAWeek. We hope you enjoy the discussion as much as we did! Our best to you all.
This week we had the pleasure of co-hosting a panel and live town hall style discussion with our good friends from Vinson & Elkins featuring the recent work of the Houston Energy Transition Initiative (or “HETI”). It was exciting to bring the community together and have a live, studio audience to discuss the opportunities and challenges for Houston to serve as the capital of the energy transition. We had the honor of hosting Bobby Tudor, my former partner, CEO of Artemis Energy Partners, and previous Chair of the Greater Houston Partnership (GHP), Jane Stricker, Executive Director of HETI and Sarah Morgan, Co-Head of M&A and Capital Markets at Vinson & Elkins. While it was a Houston-focused discussion, the conversation more broadly focused on the role of classic energy producers and industrial users in the changes to come, and most certainly the things every energy and industrial community can focus on in preparing for the energy future.
The catalyst to our discussion was a report that the Greater Houston Partnership released late last year, “Perspective on The Energy Transition Capital of The World: Houston’s Opportunity to Win by Catalyzing Capital Formation” (the report is linked here). Bobby laid the groundwork for our discussion with background on the GHP and the formation of HETI, and from there we touched on Houston’s ecosystem around the energy transition, the concentration of energy capital in the city and the financial community’s critical involvement going forward, getting solid and interlocking contracts completed and how that will help get more money to work, and working with non-traditional financing structures to facilitate new technologies. We also discussed the role for Houston’s traditional oil and gas companies, noting that the biggest investment dollars on energy transition have been coming from the incumbent energy industry, HETI’s partnerships with local and state universities and the focus on developing talent and the workforce broadly, the thorny permitting process and how “primacy” will be critical for maintaining a competitive advantage and simply getting things done, and more. Bobby summed it up well by saying “we are the laboratory for the energy transition” given the unique combination of Houston’s infrastructure, it's industrial base, it's local energy and related companies, it’s engineering talent and overall workforce, its pro-business attitude, physical location, and nearby geology for CCUS.
At some level, this episode was all about what Houston looks like in 10 years. And forgive us for saying so, but what Houston does and how it adapts will be pivotal to how the nation as a whole and certainly the oil and gas industry adapts. We can’t thank the team enough for a great discussion!
Thank you again to our friends at Vinson & Elkins for co-hosting and to the great crowd who turned out and asked some excellent questions. We hope you enjoy this Special Edition COBT!
We had a fantastic session today with Kendall Dilling, President of Pathways Alliance. Based in Calgary, Alberta, Pathways Alliance was formed by Canada’s six largest oil sands producers (who account for 95% of oil sands production) to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions from their operations by 2050. To do so, they have created a “doable, credible net-zero plan” and are working with federal and provincial governments to meet their target. Kendall has over 20 years of technical and environmental experience in the energy industry and it was our pleasure to visit with him and learn about the great work at Pathways Alliance.
To help guide today’s discussion, Kendall shared a presentation covering the vision that drives the Pathway Alliance. In the walkthrough with Kendall, we discuss long range oil supply and demand forecasts, the six companies involved and their mission, Pathways Alliance’s three-stage solution to net-zero, the major CCUS system and transportation line from oil sands in northern Alberta to a storage hub near Cold Lake, additional major projects including electrification, examples of additional technologies that could be developed and deployed to reduce emissions past 2030, and a comparison of ESG oil scores across the globe showing why cleaner Canadian and US oil should be the preferred barrels globally. It was a fantastic overview that spurred many questions and comments from the team. We wrapped with where Kendall sees Canadian energy ten years from now.
To start the show, Mike Bradley reviewed energy equity and commodity performance from the past week, flagging sideways trading in crude oil, modestly improving Brent time spreads and US natural gas continuing its slide lower. He then focused on major oil companies with many reporting earnings this last week and offered up several reasons why EU Oil Majors are outperforming US Oil Majors this year. He wrapped by emphasizing Canadian energy’s influence on the US and how it will become even more important as US shale production plateaus. Arjun Murti, part of Veriten’s Advisory Board, also joined today’s show and shared his arguments for why Canadian oil should be praised for being profitable, abundant, affordable, reliable, and as clean as anywhere in the world.
We look forward to staying connected with the team at Pathways Alliance and watching their progress in the months and years to come. Thanks to you all!
Yesterday was a special day as February 2nd marks the one-year anniversary of Veriten's launch. A year ago, we hosted our first COBT at the new company and were so honored to have Secretary James A Baker join us at The Ion for Veriten show number one. During that show, Secretary Baker discussed many things, including Ukraine, the National Debt, and why fossil fuels were important to the country's security and economic health. More than anything, Secretary Baker reminded us of the power America can harness when we collectively set our eyes on "making progress" rather than simply on "making noise."
As we reflected on our first year, we were incredibly lucky to find a first anniversary guest who could help us view today's world from a truly commanding height. Jeff Tillery and I had the honor of visiting with Eric Cantor, former House Majority Leader and current Managing Director and Vice Chairman at Moelis & Company. Eric's extensive 30-year career in politics and business allowed for a robust discussion spanning public policy, economics, energy and other industries, the markets, and the globe at large. It was a fascinating and wide-ranging exchange.
We kicked it off by hitting the top three issues on Eric's radar including monetary and fiscal policy, the social divide in the US, and the geopolitical strains stemming from the challenging US / China relationship. These three themes remained paramount in our discussion as we covered a broad range of topics including the IRA's and the CHIP Act's international impact, Eric's takeaways from Davos, his observations on the similarities and differences with the current and last national debt debate during his time in public office, and the ever-present partisan divide in the US. He also covered implications of the new interest rate regime, impressions of the energy policy debate, the 2024 Presidential race outlook, US relationships with Latin America and India, the importance of energy security, and more. We wrapped with Eric's vision and outlook for the next ten years. On one thing Eric was resoundingly clear, that the numerous problems the US faces are outweighed by his optimism for and confidence in America and the American system of governance.
At Veriten, we are very excited about what all of you are helping us build. We are up to 15 people and have an advisory board that brings us to 20. Our mission remains the same - save the world by saving the conversation, and help all of us create a better framework for understanding what the energy world really looks like in ten years. The first year has been great fun and a great challenge... thank you for riding with us and supporting us along the way!
It was our pleasure to host Eric and we can't thank him enough for his time. Thanks again for a wonderful year and we hope you enjoy the discussion!
Today we had the pleasure of hosting the Independent Petroleum Association of America (IPAA) for an oil and gas focused discussion. Joining us are Steve Pruett, Chairman of the Board, and Dan Naatz, COO and EVP. Steve and Dan are in Houston for NAPE, which almost all of you are probably familiar with, but for those of you who are not, the conference is gathering 8,000 plus people this year to talk oil and gas overall and oil and gas dealmaking in particular. To understand more about what's happening at NAPE.
The IPAA was formed in 1929 by President Hoover and is headquartered in Washington, representing over 6,000 member companies and over 4 million oil and gas jobs spread over 33 states. These member companies account for over 80% of US oil production and 90% of US natural gas production. While oil and gas provides so much of the energy in today's world, we are often talking to the "new" providers of energy and so we very much enjoyed our "back to basics" oil and gas focused conversation with the IPAA. Some of the topics we covered include current activity in Washington, the focus on improving the permitting process (for all energy flavors), Steve's background and journey to the IPAA, the IPAA's current key areas they're working on, Dan's observations on his 20-year history at the IPAA, this year's outlook for NAPE and key themes, the makeup of the IPAA member community, and much more.
As you will hear, the US faces some very important critical choices in the next 3-4 years that will determine how healthy it's oil and gas industry is a decade from now.
Mike Bradley kicked us off with an update on year-to-date activity in equity and commodity markets, flagging the continued move lower in natural gas prices and a few reasons why natural gas levered equities have decoupled from the commodity. He also highlighted key upcoming events including Wednesday's Fed meeting and an OPEC meeting as well as EU sanctions on Russian products that go into effect on February 5th, and the potential upside implications for global product prices, especially mogas.
We had great fun with Steve and Dan in the studio and hope you enjoy the conversation as much as we did. Thanks to you all!
We had a fantastic session today with Stan Miranda, Founder and Chairman of Partners Capital. Stan co-founded Partners Capital in 2001 with a goal to transform investment strategy. Today the company manages ~$45 billion of assets for endowments, foundations, institutions and private clients with seven offices across the globe. We covered a fascinating and broad range of topics, all centered around the practical investability of the energy transition.
The foundation for the conversation was a report that Partners Capital published last spring, "Global Energy Transition Investment Framework." In our discussion, we touch on what Stan is observing in the public equity space, the private equity energy transition approach, aspects of the transition Stan is most optimistic and most worried about, the first Clean Tech investing experience, the gap between government subsidies and total sector capital needs, the Partners Capital investing view on China, and the energy transition investing dilemma Stan describes as "a vast ocean of opportunity and all we have are these little straws to get the tiny bit of opportunity out of it." We end with feedback Stan has received since releasing the report and his thoughts on what the energy landscape might look like in ten years. Thank you, Stan, for joining late from London and for sharing your insights with us all!
To start the show Mike Bradley reviewed commodity and energy market performance from the past week and briefly touched on the premarket NYSE trading glitch which halted trading in numerous names. He also highlighted that natural gas continued its recent pullback and risks E&Ps potentially pulling back activity. He indicated that the upcoming debt ceiling saga will continue to weigh on market sentiment and wrapped up by highlighting some key themes from the kick-off of oil service Q4 earnings. Jeff Tillery continued the earnings conversation and shared his observations on what investors are listening for in the next few weeks.
Thanks to you all for your support and friendship!
We are beyond excited to share this week's COBT as we had the opportunity to visit with the team at the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation (NFWF). Joining us for the session are Dr. Holly Bamford, Chief Conservation Officer, Dr. John Lamoreux, Director, Fish and Wildlife Conservation, and Kristen Byler, Senior Scientist, Marine Conservation. Since its inception in 1984, NFWF has collaborated with federal, corporate and individual partners to put over $7 billion to work with conservation projects across all 50 US states and US territories. We were delighted to visit with the team and talk about NFWF's mission to build partnerships and drive conservation efforts for current and future generations.
To help orient the conversation, Dr. Bamford first shared background on the organization, it's fascinating history, and mission. From there, we discuss how the organization's partners are involved with each project and respective community, the diversity of their partnerships and projects and focus on "Getting Stuff Done," the link between nature and the energy sector including specific projects NFWF is working on with the energy industry, NFWF's involvement with carbon sequestration and associated challenges, the need for national standardization for carbon sequestration, three ways to invest in nature to sequester carbon, how individuals can get involved with NFWF, and much more. We had a hard time ending the discussion but wrapped with where Dr. Bamford, Dr. Lamoreux and Kristen see NFWF ten years from now. It was a great discussion and we are inspired by their eager spirit to "Do More Good In More Places."
Mike Bradley kicked us off with a quick market update from the past week, flagging the possibility that natural gas companies may pull back on rig count and flagged a few upcoming events including PPI reporting, the World Economic Forum in Davos taking place this week, Chinese market activity, and the beginning of oilfield services Q4 results, with SLB first out of the chute. Jeff Tillery also joined for today's discussion as well as Nick Lance, Veriten's Nature-Based Solutions Project Lead.
We look forward to following NFWF's projects and progress over the coming years! Thanks to you all. Let's keep 2023 rolling!
Welcome to another week of COBT! Today we had the pleasure of visiting with Josh Freed, Senior Vice President of the Climate and Energy Program at Third Way. Headquartered in Washington, D.C., Third Way is a public policy think tank with a global presence focused on advocating for policies that represent modern center-left ideas. Josh is the founder of the organization's clean energy and climate program, which launched in 2009, and oversees strategy to accelerate policy in the US and Europe to create energy that is clean, affordable, secure and reliable.
To help frame the discussion, Josh first provides background on the Energy and Climate team at Third Way and their focus on ensuring the conversation around clean energy includes every technology that could help with decarbonization. From there, we touch on the organization's presence in Washington, their centrist ideology, the current state of pragmatism in Washington and areas for bipartisan support, permitting reform and the importance of a can-do spirit. We also discussed technologies that Josh and his team are working on including sustainable aviation fuel and carbon management technologies, Josh's view on the future of natural gas, addressing transmission issues, Josh's view on the biggest areas of opportunity for classic energy companies and what he says is the transformative challenge of the 21st century, and more. We wrap with Josh's view on the energy mix in ten years. We greatly enjoyed the fulsome discussion!
The Veriten team kicked off the show: Mike Bradley shared his thoughts around Thursday's December CPI print and key themes from the recent Goldman Sachs Global Energy and Clean Technology Conference. He also highlighted the Fed's statement on climate change, proposals in New York to ban natural gas heating and appliances in the state, and flagged the upcoming World Economic Forum Meeting in Davos as well as OFS earnings kicking off in two weeks. Brett Rampal shared interesting data from the Energy Information Agency on their predictions for 2024 and noted we can expect lots of regulatory engagement in 2023 for nuclear projects around the world.
Thanks to Josh for a fantastic discussion and thanks to you all for your support and friendship!
Happy 2023 to you all! Welcome to the first COBT of the year featuring Danny Rice, incoming CEO of NET Power. Danny has a remarkable perspective from which he could discuss many of the issues and opportunities in today's energy world. He has seen and accomplished much... former CEO of Rice Energy, investing in and then selling Archaea Energy to BP, his experience on the EQT board, former Whiting Petroleum board member, and now the next CEO of NET Power, just to hit a few of the highlights. As you will hear in the conversation, we drew on all of his experience to discuss a wide range of great energy topics.
The theme of our discussion today was around what Danny referred to as the energy trifecta... reliable, clean, and affordable. Danny and his brothers have made a career in and around natural gas and we certainly spent a good amount of time on gas as the decarbonizing weapon of the future. What was particularly new here was the topic of NET Power and the company's unique technology that has the potential to create emission free natural gas-driven power. "Zero emission natural gas" is obviously very compelling. We dig into the details and do our best to explore all the implications and angles. We joked going in that this episode should be our first two-hour COBT and there is no question we could have gone that long. But don't worry, we kept it to our usual hour. And it was really a fantastic hour!
Mike Bradley kicked us off with a review of the red on Tuesday's screen, a look back at last year, some preview of the next three to six months, and finally a longer range outlook. Jeff Tillery shared his views on returns and the much-improved upstream business model. Todd Scruggs also joined for the robust discussion with Danny.
What a great way to kick off the year. We can't thank Danny enough and hope you get a chance to enjoy this one in its entirety.
All the best for an incredible year from all of us at Team Veriten!
While we can't believe that 2022 is coming to an end, we were thrilled to visit with Dr. Francisco Monaldi for 2022's final COBT episode all about Venezuela and Latin America's energy scene. Dr. Monaldi is a Fellow in Latin American Energy Policy, the Director of the Latin America Energy Program and a Lecturer in Energy Economics at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy. Dr. Monaldi is extremely knowledgeable of the region, it's history, challenges and opportunities, and we thoroughly enjoyed our discussion.
To begin, Dr. Monaldi walked us through a presentation outlining the history of Venezuela's economic standing, the rise and fall of political leaders and their impact on the country's economy, public sector deficit, the history of the Venezuelan oil industry, and forecasted Venezuelan output up to 2050. It was a fantastic overview to launch our conversation covering the current conditions in Venezuela from a humanitarian standpoint, the relationship between Venezuela and Russia, the recent Chevron license and additional opportunities, geopolitical implications for the next President of Venezuela, investments and developments in Guyana and Suriname, energy observations for Latin America, the time and scale of investment required to drive Venezuelan recovery in production, Dr. Monaldi's view of the energy picture in Latin America in ten years, and much more. We are greatly appreciative of Dr. Monaldi for sharing his time and expertise with us all.
To kick us off, Mike Bradley noted movement in US natural gas prices in anticipation of the impending polar vortex, the EU approval to cap gas prices, and flagged an important current copper mining issue in Panama. Colin Fenton took a look back at 2022 market conditions and shared key themes along with an outlook for 2023.
Today's COBT is our last for the year. We will return on Wednesday, January 4th with the first episode of 2023 and until then, we wish you all a Merry Christmas, a Happy Hanukkah, and a Happy New Year!!
We are so excited to share today's episode featuring Malcolm Woolf, President and CEO of the National Hydropower Association (NHA). The NHA represents over 300 member-companies including public and investor-owned utilities, independent power producers, developers, equipment and service providers, and other groups interested in advancing America's hydropower industry. Together, NHA members own and operate approximately 85% of the waterpower generating capacity in the US. We were thrilled to visit with Malcolm and hear more about the work he and his team are doing to advocate for hydropower.
In our conversation, Malcolm kicked off with an overview of the hydropower industry and its important role in stabilizing the grid, the different types of power sources (classic large dams, run-of-river, pumped storage and marine energy), the current opportunities for expanding hydropower, an overview of pumped storage technologies, permitting issues and the need for funding to address the existing fleet, the pros and cons of the IRA for hydro, common misconceptions of hydropower, the hydropower industry's biggest pain points, Malcolm's perspective on hydropower and the manufacturing sector, on-site hydropower applications, global hydropower usage, efforts to engage with communities that have historically shown concern about hydropower, dam safety and maintenance, offshore technology, scale and efficiency for hydro technologies, and the various types of NHA member companies. We end with Malcolm's ten-year vision for hydropower. We were so excited to finally be spending some time on this very important clean energy resource. Thanks very much Malcolm for joining!
In our upfront discussion, Mike Bradley shared an update on PPI and CPI prices compared to October and highlighted volatility in crude oil price, movement in WTI pricing, and notable events from the past week including California gas prices and Denbury's recent CCUS update. Colin Fenton provided a read-through on liquidity in global markets and the relative responses to the incoming inflation, labor, and manufacturing data across precious metals, equity indices, oil and gas, and fixed income instruments. He also walked us through the latest data on the slump in U.S. gasoline consumption and what it likely portends for a broader drop in global liquids demand in 2023. Brett Rampal also joined the crew to discuss the recent US fusion energy milestone and give key context around what it means for the promise of fusion power.
Thanks to you all!
We are excited to bring you this Special Edition on a topic that we find quite important: Iran. To help us discuss Iran's energy scene, we had the pleasure of connecting with Dr. Iman Nasseri, Managing Director, Middle East with Facts Global Energy (FGE). Dr. Nasseri joined us from Dubai and has an extensive background in energy economics, Middle East oil research, and Middle East gas/LNG coverage. As you will hear, we cover Iran's energy market and also touch on the current political landscape.
To start the conversation, Dr. Nasseri provides some quick color on his background and FGE including their analytical and consulting practices. We then dive into an extensive discussion on the Iran nuclear deal and implications for oil production and the impact of sanctions, oil export revenue for Iran's government, the current status of the nuclear deal and how conditions have changed with the Russian/Ukraine war, Iran's relationship with Venezuela, dynamics with OPEC, Iran's refined product market over the next few years, Iranian crude, economic and political stress in Iran, FGE's projections for gas demand, and much more. We wrap with Dr. Nasseri's view on what Iran will look like in the next ten years. Mike Bradley and Colin Fenton also joined for our global discussion.
If you're interested in additional reading, Dr. Nasseri has shared FGE's report titled, "What If the Iranian Uprising Brings Down the Islamic Republic?"
Thanks to all of you for your friendship and support!
Today we had the pleasure of hosting Rich Powell in the studio. Rich Powell is the CEO of ClearPath, a non-profit organization headquartered in Washington dedicated to developing and advancing smart energy policies. We are always eager to connect with pragmatic, balanced, solutions-oriented people and were delighted to visit with Rich.
Rich first helps frame our discussion with background on ClearPath's mission and focus areas, their pulse on the developing world's access to energy and how much development there is left to do to, Rich's observations on the evolution of the climate debate since ClearPath was founded eight years ago, the promising future for nuclear energy with bipartisan support, ClearPath's involvement with the Energy Act of 2020, the process for permitting clean energy projects and how pipelines are fundamental, the footprint of prime energy demand, additional opportunities for bipartisan energy policies, the centrist community in Washington, Rich's observations on young people's energy opinions, his takeaways from attending COP 27, decarbonization priorities, the goal to find new technologies that wouldn't need to be subsidized or mandated, and more. We had a hard time ending the discussion and can't thank Rich enough for joining.
Mike Bradley hit on three key points for the week including this past weekend's OPEC meeting, the EU's sanctions package starting on December 5th, and potential market reactions to new US PPI data, scheduled for release on Friday. Colin Fenton shared an update on U.S. shale output in the context of overall U.S. liquids and gas production growth.
We hope you enjoy the conversation as much as we did! Thanks to you all.
Today we welcomed back our good friend Tisha Schuller, Founder and CEO of Adamantine Energy. Tisha first appeared on COBT in March of 2021 and we're thrilled to visit with her just a few weeks after she's published her latest book, "Real Decarbonization: How Oil and Gas Companies Are Seizing the Low-Carbon Future." Tisha is based out of Denver and was previously the President and CEO of the Colorado Oil & Gas Association before founding Adamantine Energy, where she and her team provide thought leadership to energy businesses. We had lots of fun digging into the core themes of the book!
In our conversation, Tisha first shares the inspiration behind writing "Real Decarbonization" including the disconnect between public perceptions around decarbonization and reality. We then dive into the importance of understanding the opposing community's perspective and the shift to focus on building things rather than opposing them, Tisha's call for action to create "unconventional engagements," navigating greenwashing, how CEOs are driving the decarbonization force, the four paths to decarbonization as described in Tisha's book, how the IRA has affected traditional paradigms of opposing conservatives and liberals, personal evolution and shifting industry pride, differences in decarbonization goals for public and private companies, the definition of decarbonized, and much more. We had a hard time wrapping the discussion and ended with Tisha's view for the energy world in ten years. It was a whopper of a conversation!
The Veriten crew started the show: Mike Bradley focused on the move/volatility in crude oil markets as well as the handful of dynamics (China lockdowns, upcoming OPEC Meeting & EU Russian Price-Caps) that are driving volatility and have plunged Brent and WTI crude oil time spreads into contango. He also noted the 12-month WTI crude oil strip and energy equities have been decoupling over the past few months due to investor's comfort with higher future "normalized" prices, continued significant return OF capital and strict capex discipline even in the mist of high commodity prices. Colin Fenton trained the spotlight on precious metals. Advances in silver and gold prices are suddenly building momentum, as investors flee crypto markets and look nervously at USD weakness and other signs that central bankers will not have the stomach to squash inflation expectations. Mar-23 CMX silver ($21.41 per troy ounce) has gained 22% since its recent low in early September, and Feb-23 CMX gold ($1762 per troy oz) is now priced about 8% higher than at its recent low on November 3, 2022. Each price is far below its all-time high in either nominal or real terms.
Thanks to you all for your friendship and support!
Thanksgiving is such an awesome holiday... great food, family, relaxation. It's got it all! One thing we have been struck by... and I think it was most striking during COVID, is that the energy world NEVER STOPS and that's what makes all of this possible. Because energy people are out there working on this day, for the third year in a row we have an episode that introduces you to them. As you will hear, today's show features Brock Schmidt from North Dakota, Brad Okland from Fort Worth, and Nick Heddings from Williamsport PA. These three guys and their teams are working today! Not to ruin the surprise, but towards the end the guys also reveal their favorite Thanksgiving dish. Great stuff!
A few special thank yous are in order:
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To all of you for your support
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To the Caterpillar team for helping us find Brock, Brad and Nick and letting them join us on the show
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To energy workers everywhere, especially today, who are out there making it happen for all of us!
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To the fun people at Schatz. During the show, Brock says there is a truck stop in North Dakota which has some awesome pies and such. Well, we found them and now you know too!
I would be remiss if I didn't also thank the fun and growing team at Veriten. You are a wonderful bunch and make coming to work fun every day!
Happy Thanksgiving to you all!
For this week's session, we were thrilled to welcome back Rob West. Rob is the lead analyst at his own firm, Thunder Said Energy. Rob had a career in research at Redburn and Sanford C. Bernstein before leaving to start Thunder Said in 2019 and first joined us for COBT on January 4, 2022. He has immersed himself in the technology details of the energy transition and brings a unique "how are we going to accomplish all of this" perspective to all of his analysis. Even though there are immense challenges, and we have dug ourselves in a hole in many ways, hang in there as you will hear Rob's optimism in particular towards the end of the discussion. Rob joined us today from his home in Tallinn, Estonia. In our conversation, we pull from Rob some thoughts on the Russia-Ukraine war and delve into the sentiment in Eastern Europe and the Baltics about Russia's aggression.
Rob recently wrote a research piece entitled "Energy Shortage: Fear in a Handful of Dust?" At the heart of the paper is that the road to a better world, including a successful transformation of our energy system, goes through having energy "surplus" and not through energy "shortage." Quite the contrary, he points out the dangers of energy shortage in a number of areas including higher food prices, the negative climate effects of more wood use, diminished economic prosperity, reduced security, and the instability of democracies during periods like the one we are in. Rob reminds us of the serious bottlenecks to be solved, the second law of thermodynamics (and the implications for energy loss), that we need energy to build new energy systems, and the importance of innovation. In total, Rob points to ten key reasons why the world needs energy surplus, and why such surplus not only helps us achieve our environmental goals, but also helps us avoid a world that would ultimately be more dangerous and also more painful, especially for those who have less.
To kick us off, Mike Bradley took a look back at what oil and gas prices looked like in January of 2022 when Rob last joined us and shared current bond, commodity, and equity performance. He noted that the last few days of energy equity volatility was predominately related to the direction OPEC might pursue at its December meeting and wrapped up his discussion by laying out both the failure and success coming out of COP 27. Colin Fenton noted the European Union has put a number on its proposed price cap for natural gas: €275 per MWh, as measured by the TTF month-ahead price in the Netherlands. The proposed cap would begin on January 1, 2023, last for one year, and activate only in the event of emergency conditions locally, as determined by the spread between spot prices in Europe and a basket of spot LNG prices from around the world. EU Member States would need to approve the proposal before it could take effect. Veriten's head of nuclear research and strategy, Brett Rampal, also joined the team today.
As we pause and reflect about Thanksgiving, we want to wish you all the best and reiterate how grateful we are for your friendship. Be on the lookout for a special message on Thanksgiving Day!
Thank you again to Rob for joining and thanks to you all!
We are excited to share today's episode featuring Joseph Sigelman, Chairman and CEO of Atlantic, Gulf & Pacific Company (AG&P). Joe and his team focus on downstream LNG import and distribution, engineering and construction across Southeast Asia, stretching from India to the Philippines. He joined us from Jakarta and we were thrilled to visit with him about everything he and his company have been seeing during his eleven plus years at AG&P. As you will hear, the "on the ground, energy transition trends" in this vital part of the world are fascinating.
In our conversation, Joe kicked us off with key background details on the company and their main goal to bring clean energy to developing markets along with jobs and industrial growth. We then touch on the company's build-out process, their experience in India, the company's team and size, their effects on the health and welfare of local communities, the acceleration of the business from 2021 to today, future markets, developing infrastructure with regulatory frameworks in different countries, and much more. In one of the more compelling moments, we discuss with Joe "what ESG is really all about" and why bringing more natural gas to the developing world isn't more commonly part of that discussion. Joe is on the frontline of a changing and growing world where "energy transition" can have a more profound meaning - in this instance, going from polluting and not enough to clean and reliable. We hope you enjoy the discussion with Joe as much as we did.
In our upfront discussion, Mike Bradley shared bond, commodity and equity performance from the past week noting that lower than expected CPI and PPI prints pushed bond yields lower and equities higher. He also discussed the many macro factors that will influence crude oil prices into year end and by highlighted several topical events including unconfirmed reports that Russian missiles had crossed into Poland, the potential fallout from a new divided Congress, the FTX crypto bankruptcy web, and the lack of real substance coming from the COP 27 conference. His slide from today's session is available linked here. Colin Fenton flagged a notable public disclosure from a just-completed secret space mission. This past weekend, the U.S. X37B spaceplane landed after a record 908 days in orbit. While aloft, it conducted experiments for the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory, in which unimpeded solar energy was collected in space, converted into microwaves, and transmitted to ground receivers. Colin also noted the human population has crossed the 8-billion-person threshold for the first time in history, and he shared some observations about how gold is catching a strong bid following the FTX debacle in the crypto space.
Today we had a fantastic guest join us, Ted Nordhaus. Ted is the Founder and Executive Director of The Breakthrough Institute and a co-author of "An Ecomodernist Manifesto" as well as "The Death of Environmentalism." Ted has spent his career advocating for technical solutions to environmental problems and is a thought leader on energy, the environment, and global climate. We covered a lot of territory in our time together and were thrilled to visit with him!
The Breakthrough Institute is a global research center that seeks innovative technological solutions to environmental and human development challenges. We enjoyed learning more about their areas of impact and in our discussion we also touched on Ted's observations on the current state of the environmental world, his recent article in Foreign Policy, the issues with denying developing countries resources and infrastructure to use fossil fuels, the impact of Ted's upbringing and background, which countries are funding developing nation's energy growth, nuclear as a prime example of technology that has both scale and impact, the deregulatory movement needed to fix seventies era environmental laws that are still in place, and much more. We could have continued for much longer and greatly appreciate Ted for joining.
In our upfront discussion, Mike Bradley shared bond, commodity and equity performance from the past week noting the widest inversion of two and ten-year US government bond yields since 2000, natural gas pricing's tie to demand over the next few weeks, midterm elections, and COP 27. Colin Fenton zoned in on oil and gas prices, specifically the difference in probability for NYMEX and WTI prices over the next few weeks compared to 2023. We also had Veriten's nuclear champion Brett Rampal join for today's session.
We hope you will enjoy the session as much as we did. Thanks to you all!
For this week's COBT, we had the pleasure of hosting Sasha Mackler, Executive Director of the Energy Program at the Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC). The BPC is a Washington, DC-based think tank that prioritizes one thing above all else: GETTING THINGS DONE. That's a mission we can all stand behind. The team at BPC work on what they've defined as critical policy issues for the US including health, immigration, and infrastructure to name a few, by bringing together all relevant stakeholders and finding areas of alignment for action. We were connected with Sasha a few weeks ago and think you will appreciate his background and perspective. We had a fantastic session!
Sasha first provides key background on the BPC including their core mission, set of policy issues, and history. The Energy Program is the longest standing policy area the BPC has worked on and currently has ten staff members dedicated to the effort. In our conversation we also cover the necessity for the US to be well positioned in energy technology, why 2050 and 2030 are both important targets, where Sasha sees the possibility for progress after the midterms, Sasha's advice to COP 27 delegates including a reminder that the public sector cannot drive the energy transition alone, how to find a way to bring the oil and gas industry more fully into the policy conversation, the importance of educating the public on energy issues, and more. We wrap with Sasha's view of the world in the next ten years.
Mike Bradley kicked us off with an update on commodity and equity markets, noting key themes from earnings and oil majors outperformance this quarter. He also flagged a few key events including the potential for windfall profits tax on oil companies and the release of two recent reports, OPEC World Oil Outlook 2045 and IEA World Energy Outlook. Colin Fenton expanded on the OPEC and IEA reports with a side-by-side look at both. You will hear him reference the interesting contrast of producers talking about consumers (the OPEC report) and conversely consumers talking about producers (the IEA report). Brett Rampal also joined today's session and added his power/electricity perspective to the discussion.
Thank you, as always, for your support and friendship!
Today we had the pleasure of connecting with NJ Ayuk for an Africa-focused energy discussion. NJ is the founder and CEO of Centurion Law Group, a Johannesburg-based energy-focused law firm, and the author of "Billions at Play: The Future of African Energy and Doing Deals." In this capacity, he is among the leading energy dealmakers on the African continent. He is also the Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber, a non-profit dedicated to promoting the continent's full potential across all energy verticals. We are always interested in learning more about energy development in the developing world and can't thank NJ enough for sharing his time, expertise, and passion, based on the unique mix of his commercial and philanthropic endeavors.
Our discussion is timely: NJ has just returned from the African Energy Week conference in Cape Town. In our conversation with NJ, we cover the intelligence he gathered at that event and the insights he took away from it. We then discuss his observations on commercial investment and “bankable projects” in Africa, and his views on energy trends over the next 3 to 5 years. He provides his pregame for COP 27 in Egypt and explains why he expects to see a “united Africa” negotiating position in favor of hydrocarbons that may surprise some observers. We somehow found the time to talk about the potential for pan-African integration of supply chains for power generation and home cooking fuels (piped gas long run vs. cannister LPG short run), the critical need for expanding education resources in Africa and how electricity advances that important social good, and NJ’s vision for energy in Africa ten years from now.
In his vision of the future, NJ remarks that he hopes more people will realize that “climate change and energy poverty are two sides of the same coin." It struck us as a profound comment we should all be considering.
Mike Bradley started us off with a discussion of global markets and touched on crude oil, earnings, the next Fed rate hike, and implications of the latest power games at the highest political levels in China. Colin Fenton connected the dots on why Waha Hub gas basis prices in the United States dropped below zero today because of events in Europe and explained why "100% natural gas storage utilization" means something entirely different in France than in the United Kingdom, with important implications on why gas storage may soon not be "at 94%" in the EU or Waha basis at "subzero prices."
We hope you enjoy the conversation as much as we did! Our best to you all.
We have had a really interesting two days in our nation's capital. With the help of Anne Bradbury (CEO) and Liz Bowman (Vice President, Communications) of the American Exploration & Production Council (AXPC), we spent time in Washington DC on Monday and Tuesday talking to think tanks, energy specialists, Congressional and Senate staff, and other energy players here, trying to get a feel for the current sentiment and future direction around energy. We capped off the experience with a sit-down with Anne at AXPC's headquarters and as you will hear, we touched on many aspects of where things may be headed in the discussion.
Our key observations are that first and foremost, the election is hanging over the city, along with the backdrop of war and energy scarcity in Europe, the potential for recession, the ongoing climate debates, the aftermath of the IRA legislation, and in particular the retail price of gasoline. Anne is a longtime Washington veteran and expert and assumed the reigns at AXPC a little over two and a half years ago. Since then, she has seen COVID, the big climate push, and now the results from various policies (the good, the bad and ugly) and of course an unexpected and dangerous war. Through it all, Anne has continued to grow the membership and reputation of AXPC and has also been a strong voice for increasing energy education. Anne's perspective and overall "Washington-wisdom" was wonderful to get and we hope you enjoy the discussion as much as we did.
Just an hour or so after we finished the discussion, the White House put out an energy press release.
The home team kicked us off today: Mike Bradley hit on bond, commodity and equity performance from the past week, flagging recent decreases in oil and natural gas prices, and highlighted key events including oil service earnings kicking off this week. Colin Fenton added his global market perspective and shared an important operational update from Rio Tinto. He also helped frame our discussion by sharing data on the number of crude oil barrels in-transit on the water (more than 1.1 billion barrels).
We want to thank Anne and the AXPC team for a fantastic visit. For you COBT history buffs, Anne was one of our first guests over two years ago.
We are leaving Washington heading back to Houston with optimism for better policy-making days ahead. There are many smart people on both sides of the aisle increasingly determined to find better answers to the challenges of energy cost, reliability, innovation, climate, and security.
Thanks, as always, for all you do!
For today's COBT, we had the pleasure of sitting down with Liberty Energy CEO Chris Wright. Chris is a fascinating energy mind - his background includes MIT and UC Berkeley mechanical and electrical engineering degrees as well as a broad-based life-long passion for all forms of energy. He was an early shale pioneer and today is Chairman and CEO of Liberty. Chris also dedicates a significant amount of his time talking to policymakers globally about what he feels are the choices society should be making in energy. For the second year, Chris has helped drive the Liberty ESG report to be not just a report on Liberty but more broadly an analysis of energy ESG globally. It's absolutely worth your time and very digestible.
As you will hear, Chris lays out the three global challenges that he sees for energy and environmental policies including solving energy poverty globally (replacing wood and dung with clean cooking fuels could save 2 to 3 million people from death annually), pushing towards reliable and affordable energy systems with minimal environmental impact, and addressing climate change thoughtfully. As we discuss these objectives, you will hear us touch on a broad range of issues and factors. When discussing what the world of energy looks like in ten years, Chris had a really great and unique answer (and goal): "net zero poverty by 2050." It was a stimulating and exciting session with Chris today and we can't thank him enough for joining us.
In our upfront discussion, Mike Bradley summed up bond, commodity and equity performance from the past week and the loud reactions to the recent OPEC+ meeting. Colin Fenton highlighted an important update from the London Metals Exchange concerning Russian metal exports and shared his takeaways from Annie Proulx's new book, " Fen, Bog and Swamp." Ryan Zorn, Veriten's Senior Contributor, also joined and asked for Chris’s “energy discussion forecast” beyond the elections.
Thanks to you all. We hope you enjoy as much as we did!
Today it was our pleasure to host James West, Senior Managing Director and Partner at Evercore ISI. James heads Evercore's oil service, equipment and drilling research team as well as the sustainable technologies and clean energy team and has an extensive research career covering the OFS sector. As you will hear, we had a hard time wrapping up the discussion as the scope of what James sees, analyzes and discusses daily covers a broad range within energy, across the globe, and across a broad swath of investor types. It was a fantastic discussion.
In our conversation today, we touch on James's observations gained from covering traditional/classic energy as well as the clean energy space, his takeaways from recent investor meetings in Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and Italy, his latest insights on the European energy and security crisis and how it may play out, the return of investors to oil and gas, climate investors and their mandates, the revenge of the S in ESG, the meaning of just transition, offshore's role in supply and demand in the coming years, the Evercore energy research group's culture, scope, and overall organization, helpful and harmful energy policies, the appropriate size for the US SPR, and much more. We wrap with James's thoughts on the energy world ten years from now. We had great fun talking with James and hope you enjoy the conversation as much as we did.
For the Veriten team's upfront discussion, Mike Bradley highlighted bond, commodity and equity performance, noting rising natural gas production and potential outcomes from the upcoming OPEC meeting. Colin Fenton continued the commodity theme with a look at the market's reactions to a potential cut in production and also shared optimistic observations from recent meetings in Midland.
In today's discussion and here in this lead-in, we also want to acknowledge the recent passing of legendary energy industry veteran Steve Chazen and offer our deepest condolences to his family. Steve touched so many of our lives and he and his tremendous contributions will not be forgotten.
Today we had the pleasure of hosting Jigar Shah, Director of the U.S. Department of Energy Loan Programs Office (LPO). Jigar is a long-time entrepreneur and founder of Generate Capital and SunEdison before leaving the private sector in 2021 to join the LPO. In his current role, Jigar is responsible for leading and directing the organization's focus on connecting low-carbon technologies that are ready to scale with commercial financing. The LPO is the largest private debt fund in the energy space with more than $40 billion in loans and loan guarantees available for innovative clean energy, advanced transportation, and tribal energy projects in the United States. We were thrilled to visit with Jigar.
Our discussion covered how Jigar is planning for the long-term while also navigating current industry volatility, the types of risk LPO is willing to take, the LPO team and culture, the office's fundamental mission, color on their robust transaction flow, energy infrastructure permitting issues, the importance and excitement of American energy entrepreneurialism, bridging the gap with traditional oil majors, investor observations, and more. We wrapped with Jigar's vision for the energy world in the next ten years.
The Veriten team came in full force for today's session: Mike Bradley kicked us off with an overview of equity and commodity performance from the last week, noting US dollar strength, key upcoming events, and investor topics. Colin Fenton painted the big picture with global markets, price instability, and the Fed. Brett Rampal and Jeff Tillery peppered in their thoughts throughout our visit with Jigar.
As always, thank you for your support and friendship!
We had a fantastic session today with Neil Mehta, Managing Director and Head of North American Natural Resources Research at Goldman Sachs. Neil oversees research coverage for oil and gas, utilities, midstream, metals and mining and clean technology and also leads coverage for large cap energy equities. Neil's coverage and knowledge breadth allowed for a fascinating range of topics.
Our conversational tour of today's energy world included background on Goldman's energy research team, how Neil would rank the outlook for the various energy sectors, the current types of investors interested in the energy sector and how it has changed this year, the competition for talent across all industries and why it's particularly important in energy, return of capital and the importance for companies to differentiate themselves, the recently passed IRA, cost of capital and cost of supply, Neil's longer range oil demand outlook, with all of it infused by comments on affordability, reliability, and energy security. We even touched on the all-important "terminal value" issue for energy stocks. Wow... thank you again Neil!
To start the show, Mike Bradley reviewed equity and commodity performance from the past week and flagged the upcoming Fed meeting (Wednesday, Sept. 21) and expected basis point rate hike. He then shared four key investor topics for the near and immediate term. Colin Fenton picked up the inflation topic and provided a backdrop of a few non-energy commodity prices, gasoline prices, and US natural gas to illustrate the full extent of what the Fed and we could be facing.
Thanks to you all. It was great fun to visit with Neil and we hope you enjoy it as much as we did!
Disclosures:
The views stated by non-Goldman Sachs personnel do not necessarily reflect those of Goldman Sachs.
Goldman Sachs owns 1% or more of a class of securities of SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY COMPANY, MEG ENERGY CORP, KOSMOS ENERGY LTD., PIONEER NATURAL RESOURCES COMPANY and CANADIAN NATURAL RESOURCES LIMITED .
EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION, SCHLUMBERGER N.V., OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORPORATION, APA CORP, HESS CORPORATION, MURPHY OIL CORPORATION, OVINTIV INC., PIONEER NATURAL RESOURCES COMPANY, DIAMONDBACK ENERGY, INC., MARATHON OIL CORPORATION, PARKLAND CORPORATION, SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY COMPANY, MEG ENERGY CORP, HELMERICH & PAYNE, INC., HALLIBURTON COMPANY, CENOVUS ENERGY INC., IMPERIAL OIL LIMITED, NATIONAL FUEL GAS COMPANY, LIBERTY ENERGY INC., MAGNOLIA OIL & GAS CORPORATION, NOV INC., PHILLIPS 66, HF SINCLAIR CORPORATION, CONTINENTAL RESOURCES, INC., DEVON ENERGY CORPORATION, COMSTOCK RESOURCES, INC., RANGE RESOURCES CORPORATION, MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION, BAKER HUGHES COMPANY, COTERRA ENERGY INC., EOG RESOURCES, INC., QUANTA SERVICES, INC., CHEVRON CORPORATION, CONOCOPHILLIPS, CANADIAN NATURAL RESOURCES LIMITED and SUNCOR ENERGY INC. are clients of Goldman Sachs that received investment banking services in the last 12 months.
EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION, SCHLUMBERGER N.V., OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORPORATION, VALERO ENERGY CORPORATION, APA CORP, HESS CORPORATION, OVINTIV INC., PIONEER NATURAL RESOURCES COMPANY, DIAMONDBACK ENERGY, INC., MARATHON OIL CORPORATION, PARKLAND CORPORATION, SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY COMPANY, MEG ENERGY CORP, HELMERICH & PAYNE, INC., HALLIBURTON COMPANY, CENOVUS ENERGY INC., IMPERIAL OIL LIMITED, NATIONAL FUEL GAS COMPANY, LIBERTY ENERGY INC., PHILLIPS 66, HF SINCLAIR CORPORATION, KOSMOS ENERGY LTD., CONTINENTAL RESOURCES, INC., DEVON ENERGY CORPORATION, COMSTOCK RESOURCES, INC., RANGE RESOURCES CORPORATION, MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION, BAKER HUGHES COMPANY, COTERRA ENERGY INC., EOG RESOURCES, INC., CHEVRON CORPORATION, CONOCOPHILLIPS, CANADIAN NATURAL RESOURCES LIMITED and SUNCOR ENERGY INC. are clients of Goldman Sachs that received non-investment banking securities related services within the last 12 months.
EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION, SCHLUMBERGER
As we all kick off Climate Week, we are beyond excited to share this Special Edition COBT! Late last week, we traveled to Woods Hole, Massachusetts to meet Dr. Peter de Menocal, President and Director of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), a leading independent non-profit organization founded over 90 years ago with a nimble and entrepreneurial approach to science. Peter was elected as the 11th President of WHOI in October of 2020 following an extensive 30+ year career at Columbia University. After a tour of their impressive facilities including discussions and demonstrations with key scientists and team members at WHOI, Colin Fenton and I were delighted to visit with Peter and talk about WHOI's passion for understanding what is 70 percent of any Earth equation... the ocean!
We covered an extensive amount of territory in the discussion, starting with the breadth and depth of WHOI’s operations, the scope, scale, and promise of the ocean’s carbon-storing capabilities (for detailed research see "A Research Strategy for Ocean-based Carbon Dioxide Removal and Sequestration" published by the National Academies), how WHOI's location in Cape Cod allows easy access to deep water research, the organization’s partnerships with the Navy, NASA, NSF, and NOAA, the stunning scope of WHOI’s work (over 800 simultaneous projects at any one time), Peter's mission to see what can be accomplished in the next ten years and his commitment and emphasis on having the courage to pursue big challenges, the organization's independent culture and focus on an entrepreneurial spirit and action, and much much more. With so much left to discover in the ocean, Peter also shared several pioneering areas WHOI is researching including the Ocean Twilight Zone, Alvin discoveries, the Ocean Vital Signs network, and a partnership they have formed to commercialize WHOI technologies (“Propeller Project”). WHOI has several key initiatives and we also touch on their Ocean Observatories Initiative or “OOI.” In OOI, WHOI makes its gathered ocean data available to all as a public service to the global science community. We were blown away by the entire experience and are excited to share our findings with you.
Again, we can't thank Peter and the team at WHOI enough for their hospitality and for sharing their time, expertise, and important work. Keep up the great work WHOI!
And big thanks to all of you for your friendship and support!
Today we had the opportunity to visit with Armond Cohen, Co-Founder and President of the Clean Air Task Force (CATF). Armond co-founded the CATF over 25 years ago with a mission to decarbonize global energy systems through modeling and systems analysis, technology innovation, and policy advocacy with a focus on diversification of energy sources. For today's session, Armond joined us from London and first shared a few timely thoughts on the energy supply volatility in Europe and the value of diversification of supply.
In our discussion, we cover background on the CATF and the organization's evolution, the organization's current focus on advanced renewables, nuclear, and pioneering interest in carbon capture technology, perceptions of the fossil fuel industry and its place in the future, the public's involvement in the climate discussion, the cost/benefit analysis of renewables, the challenges for technologies to make an impact in areas with limited access to energy, and more. We greatly enjoyed the conversation and appreciate Armond's optimistic and pragmatic outlook.
Mike Bradley kicked us off with an overview of commodity and equity market volatility and a few notable factors including the proposed EU plan to cap generation revenues and introduce mandatory energy consumption cuts and the US national rail workers strike threat to supply chains. Colin Fenton reiterated the importance of the recent US CPI index report and the powerful inflationary forces at play. Brett Rampal also chimed in to help frame the nuclear power discussion.
Our best to you all! We hope you enjoy.
We hope you had a safe and restful Labor Day weekend. For this week's COBT, we had the pleasure of hosting Katherine Blunt, Renewables and Utilities Reporter for The Wall Street Journal and Author of recently-released "California Burning: The Fall of Pacific Gas and Electric and What it Means for America’s Power Grid," published just last week. Katherine was quickly thrown into covering the PG&E story in 2018 as the Camp Fire erupted three days after she started. Since then, she has investigated PG&E's complete history to understand all the contributing factors to that tragic and devastating fire. It's a complicated story with serious consequences and her book is a straightforward and insightful examination of not only the fire, but America's power history. Her well-received new book also contains many implications for utilities across the country.
In our discussion, we touch on key themes in "California Burning" including the formation of monopoly companies supplying power to California in the early 1900s, the lack of maintenance on nearly 100-year-old equipment which was the catalyst to the fire, the people and infrastructure involved in California's electric power system, PG&E's bankruptcy and restructuring program, the negotiated settlement for fire victims, public perceptions of PG&E, reactions to the book, the pressures utilities face to keep expenses low, PG&E's nuclear asset Diablo Canyon, and more. PG&E has declared the book will be required reading for employees, a promising declaration as they work to bury ten thousand miles of distribution lines and mitigate fire risk for the future. The book is very well written, Katherine was a fantastic guest, and we all feel much more informed. Thank you, Katherine!
The Veriten team quickly hit a few key points to start the show: Mike Bradley reported live from the Barclay's CEO Energy-Power Conference in New York and touched on early conference themes, market volatility, recent deal activity and news, and a recent California law on EV production and implications on power generation. Colin Fenton flagged lithium prices, Russian gas flows into Europe, Iranian crude oil exports, and prepared us for the discussion with Katherine looking at California-Oregon border and Palo Verde power prices.
As always, thank you for your support and friendship!
We had an exciting field trip today to tour the new Deloitte Greenhouse facility in Houston. While there, we had the opportunity to visit with Amy Chronis, Vice Chair, US Oil, Gas & Chemicals ("OG&C") Leader, and Houston Managing Partner. Amy has twenty years of experience as a Partner at Deloitte and leads the strategic direction of Deloitte's OG&C practice and Houston office, a group of over 5,000 professionals. The Greenhouse tour was fascinating, and we had a wonderful time with Amy and her team.
Our discussion with Amy was very timely given the release of Deloitte's recent report, "Striking the balance: How and where will oil and gas producers deploy their cash?" We kick off the conversation with an overview of the Greenhouse, inspiration for the space, and Deloitte's vision for creating a one-stop experience for organizations to "ideate," engage, build strategies, create prototypes, and address challenges in a collaborative and creative space. We then dug into the key findings and suggestions from "Striking the Balance." We talked with Amy on a wide range of topics covered in Deloitte's analysis, including the original inspiration for the report, the shale industry's remarkable "cash rally" after a negative decade, the four archetypes the Deloitte team sees for strategies going forward, various reactions to the report so far, the great progress oil and gas has made in reducing Scope 1 emissions, investor attitudes, and more. It was a far ranging and thoroughly enjoyable discussion.
To kick us off, Mike Bradley talked about another volatile week in the markets. As you will hear, Mike touches on more than a handful of variables weighing on the market, with the Fed being a really large one of course. Mike also gets into some of the proposals coming out of Europe to deal with the energy crisis there. Colin Fenton picked up on the Fed commentary and also the EU power pricing discussion. He noted in both Europe and in the US, too many government officials are talking about heavy-handed and potentially counter-productive government energy intervention.
We want to thank Amy and the Deloitte team for the tour, the discussion, and the hospitality. We hope you all enjoy the conversation as much as we did!
Late last week, we traveled to Cranberry Township, Pennsylvania to spend the day with our friends from Westinghouse Electric Company. While there we met key members of the team, toured the facilities, saw full scale mock-ups of traditional nuclear reactors, visited the prototype workshop for the eVinci Micro Reactor, and also had a one-hour sit-down with President and Chief Executive Officer Patrick Fragman. It was an absolutely fantastic experience and we can't thank the Westinghouse team enough for their hospitality. Today, we are thrilled to share the episode along with a current market update from our team.
As many of you know, Westinghouse was founded by George Westinghouse over 130 years ago and is an iconic American technology company. The company pioneered the power generation industry among other developments including steam turbine generators and gas turbines, and was pivotal in the development of nuclear energy systems for electric power generation. The company built the first US commercial nuclear reactor (which opened in 1957 and is still in use today) and also built the first nuclear reactor for a submarine in the U.S. Navy. Of the 440 nuclear reactors in the world today, half are based on Westinghouse technology.
As you will see, we hosted the discussion with Patrick Fragman in Westinghouse's AP1000 control room simulator. Patrick has more than thirty years of experience in global power and energy services. Prior to Westinghouse, he served in leadership positions at ABB and Alstom, and was also formerly an Advisor to the French Government in various industrial and energy-focused roles. In our conversation, we explore Patrick's background and expertise, the history of Westinghouse, Westinghouse's global reach and visibility into nuclear around the world, the challenges and excitement of building the first nuclear plants in the US in 40 years, excitement around micro reactors, the company's culture, the components of their overall business and the recent acquisition of BHI, Westinghouse's recent activities in Ukraine, China, and Eastern Europe, the growing acceptance of nuclear, the resurgence of young talent interested in the nuclear industry, and MORE. We wrap with Patrick's ten-year outlook for Westinghouse and the nuclear industry.
In today's lead-in, Mike Bradley shared an update on weekly equity and commodity performance and expanded on 2H'22 markets for crude oil, natural gas, and overall energy sector themes. Colin Fenton picked up on the natural gas theme with an analysis on today's natural gas price and flagged the upcoming 6-month anniversary of the Ukraine invasion with observations on the futures and options market since then. Brett Rampal also joined to preview our visit at Westinghouse.
We want to thank the Westinghouse team profusely for the opportunity. We hope you all enjoy the discussion as much as we did! As always, thank you for your support and friendship.
We had the honor of visiting with Ambassador David Satterfield, who recently assumed the role of Director at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy. Ambassador Satterfield's extensive foreign service career includes over four decades of diplomatic and leadership experience in the United States and overseas in the Near East and Europe, notably serving as Ambassador to Lebanon and Turkey and Charge D'Affaires in Iraq and Egypt. We had the unique opportunity to host the discussion in Secretary James A. Baker III's office at the Baker Institute. We were thrilled to meet the Ambassador, get his global perspectives, and hear about his vision for the Baker Institute. For those of you who don't know, the Baker Institute has been named one of the leading non-partisan think tanks in the country.
With the Ambassador's background, our conversation had a decidedly international focus. We touched on the State Department's increased advocacy for American business beginning in the 1980s, the Department's market orientation and desire for market stability, the value of principled pragmaticism, the ongoing crisis in Ukraine and the implications for other countries that are bracing for an extended conflict, the United States' response to the crisis, the financial and geopolitical implications of limited OPEC excess supply, food price inflation, the energy transition, and more. It was really thrilling to sit with someone for whom no geopolitical question was too far afield. We loved the session.
In our upfront discussion, Mike Bradley shared a natural gas and crude oil commodity update and flagged a few key items including Aramco's half year conference call, Russian EU sanctions, global SPR draining, OPEC underproducing quotas, and Iranian sanctions. Colin Fenton continued the discussion with macro insights on markets and program trading, a warning to look at real economies instead of financial metrics, comments on the S&P 500 200-moving day average, and other insights on the current inflationary environment.
We had an excellent visit with Ambassador Satterfield and can't thank him enough for the opportunity. Thanks to you all for watching!
Today we had a fantastic guest for our COBT discussion, Dr. Karl Meeusen. Karl serves as Director of Markets, Legislative and Regulatory Policy at Wärtsilä. His career in electricity markets and energy policy has included four years at the California Public Utilities Commission and most recently nearly ten years at California ISO. Now at Wärtsilä, Karl advises policy makers and market participants on power system modeling requirements and resource capabilities. There are many layers to the complexity of modeling reliability in a renewable system and we learned a lot in our session.
Wärtsilä was established over 180 years ago and is based in Finland. They develop power plants, hybrid solutions, energy storage and optimization technology designed to increase efficiency and promote reliability. To date, they have deployed 76 GW of power plant capacity and more than 110 energy storage systems to 180 countries around the world. We explored a range of topics from current regulator sentiment, Wärtsilä's history, the impact of volatility on utility modeling and forecasting, Wärtsilä's toolbox of interesting technology including modular natural gas engines, their key steps to "Front-Load Net Zero," the value of flexibility in a renewable system, and more. Thank you Karl for sharing your time and expertise with us all!
Mike Bradley started us off with two key topics today. First, he highlighted the upcoming CPI and PPI data releases this week and noted the EIA released their short-term energy outlook with the IEA and OPEC releasing their reports on Thursday. Then, with earnings season mostly behind us, he shared Q2'22 commodity and equity themes with a look at market performance from the day before second quarter earnings started through to today. Colin Fenton painted the big picture with Friday's Employment Situation report, pointing out that the payrolls statistics excludes agricultural and gig workers, signs that the inflationary pressures are beginning to affect the labor pool, and signs of the other ingredients that typically combine to make U.S. recessions.
Thank you for your friendship and affiliation with us. We greatly appreciate it!
We had the good fortune of visiting with Dr. David Victor today for an engaging discussion on climate, policy, and in particular, problem-solving structures that feature "experimentalist governance." Dr. Victor is a Professor of Innovation and Public Policy at UC San Diego and Co-Director of the UC San Diego Deep Decarbonization Initiative. He has published over 200 articles and books on climate change and the "transition from a high emissions energy world to a low emissions energy world." Today is the release date of his latest book which he Co-Authored with Charles Sabel, "Fixing the Climate: Strategies for an Uncertain World." We thoroughly enjoyed the discussion, Dr. Victor's pragmaticism, as well as his upbeat demeanor.
Fixing the Climate explains why effective climate policy requires government and business collaboration and an emphasis on experimentalism. The book features examples of successful environmental policy, with a particularly deep and illuminating dive into the Montreal Protocol, the world's successful answer to attacking the CFC/ozone problems. In our conversation, we look at the balance and symbiosis between vision and leadership at the Federal level and problem solving in local communities, the key factors Dr. Victor thinks will determine natural gas's future, how to improve education, the need for more focus on climate impact, as well as a range of other issues. As you will hear, Dr. Victor is spending more and more time with energy and other industries, learning and helping from the inside out how incumbent players can meaningfully and profitably contribute to the way forward.
To kick off the show, Mike Bradley highlighted his two key focus items for the week including his expectations for the OPEC+ meeting this Wednesday as well as for more energy earnings. Colin Fenton commented on recovering markets, and some recent potentially positive policy moves, but cautioned there are considerable challenges in front of us, just one example of which is the agitated swirl around Speaker Pelosi's trip to Taiwan.
Today's subject is something we have wanted to study for some time now: global population growth. We were lucky enough to find a leading expert to join us and today had the pleasure of hosting Dr. Darrell Bricker. Darrell is a Senior Fellow in Global Affairs and Public Policy at the University of Toronto, the CEO of Public Affairs at Ipsos (the world's leading social and public opinion research firm), and the Co-Author of "Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline." All of us here at Veriten enjoyed reading Empty Planet. As you will hear, Darrell and his Co-Author John Ibbitson not only immersed themselves in all the available UN data but also traveled to six continents to conduct field research and interviews to refine their assumptions as they created their own estimates of global population growth through 2100. It was a fantastic and riveting conversation.
To help frame our discussion, we kicked off with a few data points on historical global population, global life expectancy, the UN's fertility scenarios for through 2100, and the UN's projected global population (medium-fertility scenario is 10.36 billion in 2100). From there, we jump into a lively conversation with Darrell about Empty Planet, the driving factors behind a potential decline in global population, the issue with population models, a deep dive on cultural factors in Brazil and China, COVID-19's impact, cultural shifts in immigration, and the impact of climate change. We reference Charles Jones's study on the unintended consequences of a declining population. It was a fascinating session and we are thankful to Darrell for sharing his time and expertise.
The Veriten crew started the show: Mike Bradley shared an overview of weekly equity and commodity performance, flagging a busy week for earnings in the energy sector and prepped us for our main discussion with a look as debt as a percent of GDP across the top ten economies in the world. Colin Fenton walked us through the key factors affecting gasoline and natural gas prices and warned the Federal Reserve will need to continue to raise interest rates.
We have an exciting Special Edition episode to wrap up the week! We had the pleasure today of hosting Darren Peers, Equity Investment Analyst at Capital Group. Darren has 25 years of investing experience, the recent 8 plus with Capital and prior to that NWQ and Putnam. He is a great friend and we very much respect his highly analytical mind and overall approach to investing. It was fantastic to visit with him and get his perspective on issues we are all thinking about in today's volatile market.
Darren first helped frame our discussion with background on Capital Group, their mission, approach to investing, structure, culture, and reward structure. We then jumped into an array of topics including the increased interest in investing in oil & gas, the top factors Darren evaluates when making investments, industrial activity in Europe and the implications of Europe's energy problems, US E&Ps, the future of diesel, a carbon tax, takeaways from his recent meetings at the Calgary Stampede, the green complex, volatility in the oil & gas sector over the next few years, and more. We wrapped with Darren's outlook for the next ten years. As always, Darren's responses were extremely thoughtful and very much worth a listen.
The Veriten team hit a few items before our main discussion with Darren: Mike Bradley highlighted a noteworthy indicator from AT&T and Colin Fenton expanded on jobless claims and noted price sensitivity with gasoline demand, the ECB's 50-point basis hike, and upcoming potential demand issues for Europe.
We hope you enjoy the conversation as much as we did! Thanks to you all.
We had the great opportunity today to host a friend and longtime auto industry entrepreneur, Henrik Fisker, CEO of Fisker Inc., for our first electric car-focused episode. Henrik is a leading automotive designer and some of his creations include the BMW Z8, Aston Martin DB9, Viking motorcycle, Fisker Karma, and Force 1, to name a few. He also previously held executive positions at Ford Motor Company and Aston Martin Lagonda Ltd. Simply put, his impressive career is something us car nerds can only dream of, and we were thrilled to visit with him and discuss the new Fisker Ocean electric SUV.
Our conversation had a few major themes: electric car development, supply chains, consumer attitudes, the hybrid market, adoption rate of EVs, Fisker's strategic partnerships and outsourced manufacturing, and a few of the ways Fisker has separated themselves from competitors with pricing, range, and unique design features. It was also fascinating to hear Fisker's vision for a fully online consumer experience from purchasing to delivery to maintenance and how they are reimagining the traditional dealership design. Before Henrik got away, we couldn't help ourselves... we asked him about his favorite cars of all time. He had some great answers!
To kick us off, Mike Bradley presented a summary of this week's equity & commodity performance and interesting headlines, and also flagged that we are headed into Q2'22 earnings with OFS reporting this week. Colin Fenton expanded on Mike's thoughts with an international update on markets, changes in G7 leadership, Nord Stream gas flows, and a key fertilizer production statistic from this week.
We had a lot of fun spending time with Henrik and are excited to follow Fisker's future. Thanks to you all for watching!
Today we had the honor of hosting Governor Mike Dunleavy of Alaska for an exciting and informational episode. Governor Dunleavy is a Scranton, PA native and as a young man moved to Alaska in 1983 where he had an extensive career in education serving as a teacher, principal, and superintendent before his 5-year term as an Alaska State Senator from 2013-2018. He became Governor in 2018 and is up for re-election this November. We had a fantastic time visiting and walked away from the discussion impressed with Gov. Dunleavy and his passion to advance the state's energy opportunities.
Gov. Dunleavy helped frame our discussion with background and history of the state, the state's unique features, history of their energy production, difficulties with federal regulations, the proposed pipeline from the North Slope to Nikiski and how it would impact the state's LNG exports to Asia, the Native American and US veteran populations of Alaska, and information on Alaska's energy transition minerals. We also cover relations with Russia and the full spectrum of energy available in Alaska from hydro, nuclear, geothermal, wind, solar, and tidal, to oil and natural gas. Overall, we learned a lot about the state (which Gov. Dunleavy thinks is the "best kept secret in the United States of America") and have a better appreciation for their contributions and challenges. We can't thank the Governor enough for his time and consideration and are looking forward to Veriten's future visit to Alaska!
The Veriten team quickly hit a few key points to start the show: Mike Bradley highlighted interesting headlines of the week including OPEC's 2023 Market Outlook and ERCOT's struggles with the heat, and also covered weekly equity and commodity performance. Colin Fenton provided a macro market outlook and warned that coastline states that skipped the 2014/2016 slump may see areas of recession, and that unfortunately inflation peaking does not mean inflation is over.
Thanks to you all. We hope you enjoy and that you learn something new about Alaska!
We are continuing India Week with a great friend and industry leader, Monte Dobson. Monte is the CEO and Lead Country Manager of ExxonMobil India and was appointed to the role in October 2021. Prior to his current adventure in India, Monte led technology development for unconventional resources in Exxon's upstream solutions business and was extensively involved in developing Exxon's Permian oil position. We were thrilled to have the opportunity to visit with him and hear about his experience in India and the work Exxon is doing to advance India's energy independence, energy growth, and energy transition.
Monte first set the stage with some of his high-level impressions of India and key data points to get a snapshot of the country. As you may know, India is experiencing rapid growth in the economy (projected to be third largest economy by 2030) and has 1.4 billion in population with a median population age of 28 years. In our conversation, we touch on the talent ecosystem and recruiting for talent in Bengaluru (Bangalore), three business areas in the country that ExxonMobil is working to progress, taxation considerations with natural gas, whether India will increase its domestic production and its overall level of energy imports, the three pillars of security/reliability, affordability, and emissions, the ease of doing business in India, the keys to success, and more. We end with Monte's vision of energy in India in ten years and could have continued for much longer had it not been late in Bengaluru.
We had a quick upfront discussion: Mike Bradley shared a brief market and commodity update and flagged the SCOTUS ruled in favor of West Virginia in the case of West Virginia vs. the EPA. Colin Fenton shared macro insights as we wrap the first half of the year and looked at gas supply data for the US.
The Veriten team had a great week learning more about India and we are excited to continue to expand our knowledge of the challenges and opportunities of energy and the environment in the developing world. If you missed Tuesday's episode featuring Sunita Narain with India's Center for Science and the Environment.
We are focusing on India this week at Veriten and are excited to study the country, their needs, their challenges, and their opportunities. Today we were delighted to welcome Sunita Narain, Director General of the Center for Science and the Environment (CSE). Sunita is a 40-year environmentalist, political activist, and author; her work includes in-depth research on the governance and management of the environment. She is the editor of " Down to Earth" magazine and the author of " Conflicts of Interest," a collection of essays on the environmental movement in India. We were lucky enough to meet Sunita at this year's CERAWeek in Houston and as you will hear, she is incredibly passionate, upbeat, thoughtful, and pleasant. We are big fans and supporters.
To start the session, Sunita provides background on the CSE and their history. The CSE is a think tank agency that focuses their research on environmental issues with the intent to use their research to push for change. In our discussion, we touch on India's advanced waste management systems, the coal industry, the letter Sunita wrote to the Finance Minister about natural gas taxation, air quality, water management, climate change, the current high temperatures in India, energy security, developing the energy grid in India, and the importance of thinking interdependently in today's world. We wrap up with Sunita's vision for the energy and environmental world in ten years, and her thoughtful and touching response emphasizes how different the developing world is from the day-to-day discussions we have in the OECD. Overall, we are excited to follow the CSE's developments in the upcoming years and are also glad to have made an incredible friend in Sunita.
Mike Bradley kicked off the session with a look at energy and commodity performance and highlighted key upcoming macro events, including the Supreme Court's ruling on West Virginia v. the Environmental Protection Agency and its importance. Colin Fenton chimed in with a follow-up on the LME copper curve, manufacturing activity, and China's shortening of COVID lockdown restrictions.
Later this week, we will sit down with Monte Dobson, CEO and Lead County Manager of ExxonMobil India and are excited to spend more time learning about India.
As always, thanks to you all for your support!
We had an exciting and informative session today with Michele Della Vigna, Managing Director and Head of Energy Research for EMEA (Europe, the Mideast, and Africa) at Goldman Sachs. In his extensive research career, Michele has spent over twenty years at Goldman covering strategy and content across the global equity energy and natural resources teams. He is the also the creator of Goldman's Carbonomics research program which looks at the economics behind a transition to net-zero emissions.
In our discussion, Michele describes the top three items he and the research team at Goldman are currently focused on, the European outlook on natural gas, issues created by the lack of policy clarity on a global basis on carbon, the severe underinvestment in hydrocarbons, how ESG frameworks have impacted and will continue to impact investing, Norway as an example of a positive green transition experience, the Goldman research group's team and global scope, hydrogen, and what Michele thinks the energy world will look like in ten years.
We had a quick upfront discussion: Mike Bradley flagged that last week was one of the worst performing weeks in the market for the S&P and energy sector and pointed out key upcoming macro events and interesting headlines from this week. Colin Fenton shared two items that caught his attention this week including the LME copper forward curve and the drop-off in Russian gas flows into Europe.
It was fantastic to visit with Michele. He and his group sit at the epicenter of every trend shaping and changing the energy world right now. It goes without saying, but we also greatly appreciate your viewership and hope you enjoy today's discussion! We certainly did!
Today, we were delighted to host David Firestein, President and CEO of the George H.W. Bush Foundation for U.S.-China Relations (the Bush China Foundation). His multi-decade experience immersed in China (and Russia) provided balanced perspective and historical context to a whole set of complex geopolitical issues. The conversation ranged from David's perspective on how/why the US-China relationship has changed, how that change impacts China-Russia relations, how the Chinese people perceive the US, US-China energy market inter-play, and the ever-present Taiwan-China tension. We wrapped up our discussion with David focusing on China's role in and attitude towards climate change. As it so happens, June 12th would have marked George H. W. Bush's 98th birthday and we also touch on his legacy in the conversation as well.
Mike Bradley started the show with a discussion on natural gas markets, LNG outages, prospects for winter markets in both the US and Europe, and the overall wild equity market ride we are on right now. Colin Fenton flagged what is catching his eye in global currency and government debt markets and how that action presents risk to both equity markets as well as energy demand.
David has a quote highlighted on the Bush China Foundation's webpage that we found worth repeating: "The gravest threat to America today is the untethering of our nation's public policy and political discourse from factual reality; unless and until we rectify that, we as a nation will never be able to out-compete China - or, indeed, solve any of our nation's pressing problems."
A truer thought we have not heard.
Our best to you all!
Today we had the pleasure of hosting Meredith Angwin, Energy Analyst and Author of " Campaigning for Clean Air: Strategies for Pro-Nuclear Advocacy" and most recently " Shorting the Grid: The Hidden Fragility of Our Electric Grid." Meredith is a passionate advocate for abundant, affordable, clean energy and has also been an early advocate for nuclear energy. In her extensive career, she has headed research projects on pollution control for fossil fuels, corrosion control for nuclear plants, and was one of the first female project managers at the Electric Power Research Institute. More recently, she has shifted focus to grid governance, reliability and oversight. In her latest book and with us live today, Meredith explains the grid and associated challenges in a straightforward and understandable way.
We focused today on " Shorting the Grid" and the story Meredith tells us all by closely examining power in New England. Our key topics included an overview of the structural history of the power industry, the advent of the Regional Transmission Organizations ("RTOs"), background on New England's historical reliability measures (running oil during weather driven demand increases), new pay for performance initiatives, and additional structural changes and challenges in the market (like MPOR, the minimum offer price rule). We also touch on hydro power, the implications of the current natural gas price spike, the warning signs of more potential power shortages, overdependence on renewables with limited backup fuel, the lack of transparency and accountability, the hazards of relying on natural gas but not building enough pipelines, and, of course, what Meredith thinks the power market could look like in ten years. It was an extremely educational and interesting session and we are thankful to Meredith for joining us. We wholeheartedly recommend her book. It takes some really complicated issues and makes them easy to follow.
Mike Bradley started the show with an update on weekly equity and commodity performance and key events, noting that European natural gas is at the lowest price since the Ukranian war started and also focused on recent executive action around US solar tariffs and the mixed messages the government is sending to Industry. Colin Fenton provided an update on US LNG export data and crude oil, showing markets are reacting to the EU's ban on Russian deliveries and also noting inflationary effects on US households with new credit cards skyrocketing. Brett Rampal, Veriten's nuclear expert, also joined and peppered in his thoughts and observations in the session.
We're starting the week with a Special Edition COBT with a great friend of the firm, independent energy and climate thinker, and former COBT guest, Michael Shellenberger. Michael is the Founder & President of Environmental Progress, Author of " Apocalypse Never: Why Environmental Alarmism Hurts Us All" and most recently " San Fransicko: Why Progressives Ruin Cities." He is currently running for Governor of California as an Independent and is passionate about the future of his home state. Should he be elected, he intends to push the state back to a pro-growth, pro-civilization agenda. We were excited to dig into his campaign, life on the ground in California, and of course his proposed policy changes.
Our discussion was timely as California's primary election for Governor is taking place today, Tuesday, June 7th. In our discussion with Michael, we discuss his journey to running for office and identifying as an independent, his passionate voter base, the homeless, public drug use, growing security problems, the mental health crisis, the nation's highest gasoline costs, the "Curley Effect," and his plan for California to rebuild communities with both compassion and accountability. We also touch on Michael's energy views including the importance of energy abundance, desalination plants, water storage plants, and nuclear energy for the state. We're rooting for Michael in this election and hope that his pro-growth and pro-civilization message will resonate with California's constituents.
The Veriten team quickly hit a few key points to start the show: Mike Bradley shared the equation for this year's hot and difficult summer and passed it to Colin Fenton who noted the other historical anniversary of June 6th besides D-Day and built on Mike's comments with a note to keep an eye on SP-15 power prices.
It was a great opportunity to visit with Michael on the eve of the election and we can't thank him enough for sharing his time. As always, we hope you enjoy!
We are excited to share a Special Edition COBT with you today! We had the opportunity to visit with former guest Alex Epstein, Author of " The Moral Case for Fossil Fuels" and Founder of the Center for Industrial Progress. Alex recently published a new book, " Fossil Future: Why Global Human Flourishing Requires More Oil, Coal, and Natural Gas - Not Less." We appreciate his tenacity for swimming against the current tide and are always interested to hear from him as he is at the center of the energy, climate, and technology debate.
Our conversation starts with a look at the key themes in "Fossil Future" including energy freedom, freedom to trade, and the importance of contracts / property rights for underdeveloped countries. Alex's philosophical background is at the core of the book which examines and questions how experts think and the knowledge system trickle-down from expert opinions to all of our own conclusions. We also touch on his reflections since his first book released in 2014, potential world population growth or shrinkage, the importance of philosophy, "Arguing to 100," initial feedback he's received for "Fossil Future," human flourishing, and of course, what he thinks the energy world will look like in the next few years. Thank you to Alex for joining!
With so much to discuss, we had a quick intro from the Veriten team: Mike Bradley compared index prices from when Alex's first book released in 2014 to today for commodities, US CPI, World Food and NAM Fertilizer. Colin Fenton reminded us that in the sea of chatter about a potential recession to stay open to the possibility of stagflation.
As always, we hope you enjoy and welcome your feedback! Thanks to all of you from all of us at Veriten.
Today we had the pleasure of hosting our good friend Dr. Scott Tinker, Chairman of Switch Energy Alliance and the Director of the Bureau of Economic Geology at The University of Texas at Austin. Scott's work is focused on addressing major societal challenges in energy, the environment, and the economy. He has co-produced two documentary films exploring energy across the developing world, " Switch" and its sequel " Switch On." It is always fantastic to visit with Scott and we appreciate his friendship and his never-ending push for the concept of the "radical middle" to create a new, better, and more thoughtful energy debate.
In our discussion, we ask Scott for his thoughts on the current energy debate and political environment, his work with students and young professionals, the importance of getting more people out of poverty, energy density, China's and India's growth plans and potential environmental impact, and more. Scott also provides interesting takeaways from a recent and unique conference he co-hosted focusing on the dual challenge of climate and energy. We also discussed Scott's upcoming PBS series called "The Energy Switch," releasing this June. In the series, Scott moderates as leading professionals on both sides of the issues debate the key variables and decision points of our energy future.
As you all know, we frequently ask our guests, "What Does The Energy World Look Like In Ten Years?" As you will hear in today's video, Scott forecasted that in ten years, we'll have a "more balanced knowledge base" from which we can make great decisions for our energy future. It was a really interesting answer to the question we are always asking. We had a fantastic discussion with Scott and enjoyed his common-sense, practical, and global perspective.
Mike Bradley kicked off the show with an update on energy market performance and weekly energy headlines, warning for a potential summer of pain with nations potentially hoarding supplies and restricting exports. Colin Fenton shared a few thoughts on the new economic environment and reiterated Mike's point that we could experience a challenging summer.
As always, thank you for your friendship and support! One request of all of you... if you have a minute, watch Scott Tinker's most recent TED Talk, "The Dual Challenge: Energy and Environment". He's getting lots of views and we want to encourage you to view it and share it with others in your network as well.
What a week! Following the prior two outstanding COBT guests this week, we end the week with our great friend and an inspiring leader, Rob Kaplan. Most recently, Rob served as the President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas from 2015 to 2021. Prior to the Fed, Rob served as Senior Associate Dean and Martin Marshall Professor of Management Practice at Harvard Business School, and before that he had an extensive Goldman Sachs career that included serving as Vice Chairman and Global Head of Investment Banking. With the current intense focus on inflation, the markets, green-flation, and deglobalization, we were eager to hear Rob's perspective.
In our discussion with Rob, we ask tough questions on where the Fed finds itself now, steps they might take to handle inflation, factors that led to our current state including the energy transition and climate decisions, the psychology of inflation and how we might end the cycle, government debt, and more. We also touch on Rob's transitions throughout his career and his takeaways from his expansive experience working with private businesses, non-profits, government agencies, and academics. We likely tried to bite off more than we could chew in one hour and know it will take much more to solve the inflation bubble. It was our honor to host Rob and we sincerely thank him for his time.
Mike Bradley started the show discussing notable headlines including the UK's windfall tax on energy companies and the likelihood that prices at the pump will continue to rise over summer. Colin Fenton prepped us for our meaty discussion with Rob with extensive background on inflation rates, central bank liabilities, and if you are a long-time COBT fan you will be glad to hear he also updated us on the US average price for potato chips.
Our country is certainly in a tough spot, for several reasons, and it was a great reminder from Rob that it will do us all a great service to put our heads down, chip away, and listen to each other. As always, thank you for your support and friendship!
Today we were honored to be joined by Maggie Peloso, the Lead Sustainability Partner and Climate Change Practice Leader at Vinson & Elkins (V&E). Maggie's unique background includes a Ph.D. from Duke University in Environment, a J.D. from Stanford Law School, a Masters in Environmental Management, Environmental Economics and Policy from Duke and a B.S. in Biology also from Duke. She is the author of " Adapting to Rising Sea Levels: Legal Challenges and Opportunities" and also a Lecturer in Law at the University of Pennsylvania. Maggie is based in Washington, D.C. and has been intimately involved helping her clients as the SEC's proposed Climate Risk Disclosure rules are debated. As you may know, the comment period on the proposed rules has been extended to June 17th. Needless to say, Maggie's phone has been ringing.
In our discussion, we hit on all the major issues. You might recall we did a COBT early on when these rules first came out (March 30, 2022). Everyone has clearly been ruminating since then, and in our discussion today we had a couple of recurring themes: how is this really going to work and what are we really going to get when this is all finalized? Early in the conversation, you will hear Maggie uses the expression "trickle down climate policy" to describe the Biden Administration's attempts to push their focus on climate issues through various agencies and often through executive order. It struck us as a phrase worth remembering.
The conversation with Maggie was fantastic. We cover a lot of great territory and with her experience as an environmentalist, we were able to venture outside legal territory and focus on some policy matters. It was a collision of law, science, materiality, and sustainability. We reference V&E's eight key takeaways from the proposed rules, and also the firm's full report on the proposed disclosures and the implications for companies.
Mike Bradley kicked us off with a look at energy stock performance and upcoming events, highlighting a few actions from the Biden Administration. He also provides a closer look at the US vs. European natural gas year-to-date and shares an interesting comparison of the Davos 2022 conference themes to the themes of previous years. Colin Fenton points out that despite the significant damage done in global markets year to date (excluding commodities and energy equities), social media signals suggest the lows for equity benchmarks have yet to be seen. Of course, risk could change swiftly on the low-but-not-zero odds for Putin's departure and the arrival of a new anti-war regime in Moscow.
It was a real joy to visit and kick it around with Maggie in today's session. We greatly appreciate your viewership and hope you enjoy today's discussion!
We are thrilled to share a Special Edition COBT featuring Maria Korsnick, President and CEO of the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI). As a brief introduction, Maria has 36 years of experience in the nuclear industry from operations to management positions and has been with NEI since 2015. In her extensive career, Maria has been responsible for five reactors at three different locations and now uses her technical and operational background to advocate for the industry with key legislative and regulatory advancements. We had much to discuss!
Maria's passion for nuclear energy is unmistakable and in our discussion we touch on the commercial nuclear industry, the America-Russia-China dynamic and importance of having long-term global relationships, the media's impact on the nuclear industry, the Civil Nuclear Credit Program, clean energy tax credits, applications for non-energy nuclear power use, re-purposing nuclear waste, and how putting nuclear energy together with alternate forms provides a compelling option for making the energy sector reliable and affordable. Nuclear's energy density relative to other energy sources is fascinating. We are excited to see how the NEI continues to advance the industry with governmental support.
The Veriten team had a brief lead-in to start the show: Mike Bradley shared a quick look at the uranium ETF (URA) to prepare us for our discussion. Colin Fenton noted the lack of nuclear power mentioned in the European Commission's REPowerEU Plan released last Wednesday and had a few tidbits on wheat prices and Russian Ruble gains. We are also excited to announce that Brett Rampal has joined the Veriten team as Director, Nuclear and Power Strategy and will be leading our nuclear efforts.
It was fantastic to visit with Maria. We hope you enjoy the conversation as much as we did! Thanks to you all.
We are powered up for a Special Edition COBT with our good friend, David Tudor. David is the Chief Executive Officer and General Manager of Associated Electric Cooperative Incorporated (AECI), a member-owned electric co-op serving two million customers in Missouri, Iowa and Oklahoma. David joined AECI in 2016 and has previously held positions at Champion Energy Services (CEO), ACES Power Marketing (CEO), and PG&E Energy Trading in his extensive energy career. It was a timely discussion given the recent blackout challenges Texas and other states are facing with summer weather heating up.
AECI recently held their Annual Meeting with key themes including reliability, regulatory developments, and natural gas. The conference brought together over 750 people representing co-ops, utilities, banks, and power companies. Colin Fenton and I had the opportunity to speak about the increasing importance of natural gas domestically and globally and really enjoyed the conference and group of attendees.
In our COBT discussion with David, we cover how AECI is uniquely positioned to focus on reliability, the co-op structure and what differentiates it from other models, AECI's portfolio of energy sources, current supply-chain issues with the US railroad system, the potential for new technology that is both reliable and less land intensive than solar, the future of AECI, federal involvement generally, and the challenging summer ahead for both electricity providers and customers. Thank you to David for joining and providing some fantastic insights!
We had a quick upfront discussion: Mike Bradley had two key points about the markets and the junk bond market. Colin Fenton noted WTI is now trading at a price premium to Brent and prepped us for our conversation with a few thoughts on reliability and summer price spikes.
We had a fantastic session today about a topic we have been curious about for some time: the ties between the energy and farming/food sectors. To help us dig in, we had the pleasure of hosting Greg Horstmeier, Editor-in-Chief, and Russ Quinn, Staff Reporter, with The Progressive Farmer magazine. Greg has an extensive career in agricultural journalism with a focus on crops, chemicals, and technology. Russ's areas of focus are fertilizer and equipment which we concentrate on in our session (Russ has been writing a weekly fertilizer update since 2008). It was fascinating to hear their perspectives from the heart of America's farmland.
The Progressive Farmer is based in Omaha, Nebraska and was founded with a mission of providing farmers with the instant information they need to run successful businesses. A few of the items we discussed include fertilizer prices and availability, broader farming economics, crop prices, diesel prices, long term farming outlook, the pressure for farmers to consolidate, how farming is impacted by the rise in natural gas prices, the effects of the war in Ukraine, and the challenges farming will face in the years to come. As we learned, the number one focus for farming is land and farmers are now competing for land with investment firms, urban sprawl, and wind and solar expansion. Russ also provided an overview of fertilizer prices and what has happened since the price last shot up in 2008. It was an eye-opener to the world of farming and we learned a lot in one hour. We are huge fans of Greg and Russ and appreciate them shedding light on these topics and look forward to staying connected with them. As you will hear, we are already discussing a potential additional show with Progressive Farmer's weather experts.
To start the show, Mike Bradley highlighted a few notable events from the past week including Aramco's rise to the largest market cap in the world, beating Apple. He then teed us up for our discussion with a look at agriculture-related stock performance. Colin Fenton shared a few insights on inflation and risk and the likelihood that the US coastal states are most at risk of recession vs. mid-continent states.
Thanks to you all. We hope you enjoy! Stay tuned for a Special Edition with Associated Electric Cooperative Incorporated later this week.
We had a global discussion today centered around China with Gabe Collins, Baker Botts Fellow in Energy & Environmental Regulatory Affairs at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy. Gabe has a fascinating background and is a Senior Visiting Research Fellow at The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies and also the Co-Founder of China SignPost. He is a Permian Basin native, an expert in Chinese and Russian relations, speaks Mandarin and Russian, and has served as a researcher and China analyst at the Department of Defense. It was a fantastic session and we can't thank Gabe enough for joining us.
Our discussion spanned China's zero-Covid policy, Russian / Ukraine insights, US and European energy policy, potential bumps in the road and instability for the next five years, food security concerns, Taiwan, and other geopolitical possibilities. Gabe was a trooper with our rapid-fire questions and we really enjoyed his insights.
Mike Bradley kicked us off with a look at the markets and a few charts on high yield debt markets and recent OPEC headlines. Colin Fenton discussed the effectiveness of sanctions against Russia and the new inflation regime.
We were honored and delighted to host Doug Terreson today. Doug is the Chief Investment Officer of Jubilee Investments and a Board Member of Phillips 66. While difficult to summarize Doug's distinguished career in Wall Street research, he has served as the Head of Global Research for over 25 years between Evercore ISI, ISI, and Morgan Stanley. During this time, he made several big calls which signaled a change in the direction the world was going. His dynamic perspective and enthusiastic attitude were energizing. We had a wonderful visit!
In our discussion, we looked at how the industry has evolved throughout Doug's career and how we may be able to predict the sector's performance in the next ten years. One of the major themes in our discussion was capital discipline and the link to strong market performance. We touch on everything from consolidation in the 90s compared to consolidation today, regulatory risk, energy private equity's explosion, the era of the super major, outside influences including OPEC+ and China, and more. It was an engaging and insightful discussion and we hope you enjoy it as much as we did!
We had a quick lead-in to kick us off: Mike Bradley provided a timely earnings update and had an interesting tidbit about LNG and IG mentions in last week's earning calls. Colin Fenton reported live from Stanford University, where he is attending their Energy Solutions Week conference, and shared tidbits and a few interesting panel topics from the event.
Huge thank you to Doug for sharing his time and expertise with us and thanks to you all for your support and friendship!
Dr. Andrew Latham, Vice Present Global Exploration at Wood Mackenzie, joined us today to talk through recent happenings in the global upstream oil & gas exploration market. The punchline is there is more happening than you might think.
Andrew has more than 25 years of experience in technical and commercial aspects of exploration including assisting majors and independent companies in strategy development and portfolio planning. In recent years, exploration has arguably been undervalued with a push for the energy transition and with an overall restraint on spending. Andrew's recent report catalyzed today's discussion by pointing out some really interesting things are happening in this classic art of "finding more." It was so fun to be talking about exploration again!
A few themes we touch on include recent industry successes/results, how dynamics around gas discoveries might be changing in the current world, and how exploration success and subsequent development actually improves the ESG profile of those operators. Today's exploration activity also gives a window into what those participants think about long-term oil market fundamentals given the extended cycle time to positive project cash flow. Thank you to Andrew for joining!
Mike Bradley kicked us off with discussion around what to watch outside of energy, given we are entering the heart of earnings season along with refining margin observations. He throws in a fun takeaway from a recent shareholder proposal to Citibank. Colin Fenton and Mike both hit different aspects of European natural gas market dynamics before Colin relays observations on various asset classes relative to commodity markets and how that is influencing a number of institutional investor discussions. He also alerted us all that BP has published their Energy Outlook for 2022.
We are always delighted to hear from young people in energy and today's COBT session was a fantastic experience. This week's primary speaker is a longstanding friend and former COBT guest, Dr. Steven Koonin. Dr. Koonin is a Professor at the Stern School of Business at NYU, Nonresident Senior Fellow at AEI and the Author of "Unsettled." Prior to joining NYU, he served as the Under Secretary for Science at the U.S. Department of Energy under the Obama Administration and was formerly the Chief Scientist at BP. Today we had the pleasure of joining not only Dr. Koonin, but also a few of his students (Matt Mayeski, Alice Nuz, and Beniamin Strzelecki) for an engaging discussion around energy, climate, and the future.
In our discussion with Dr. Koonin, we cover his course, the reception of "Unsettled" since its publication almost one year ago, and high-level takeaways from the IPCC's 2022 Report. Dr. Koonin's energy course is a "soup to nuts" analysis of the technology, economics, markets, regulation, public perception, and other forces shaping the future of energy. We discuss ideas, observations, and thoughts on solutions with his students and get their unique opinions on what the energy world may look like in ten years.
Mike Bradley started the show with a look at equity and commodity performance from the past week as well as an analysis on the US natural gas curve, the European natural gas curve, and the potential interactions of the coal and gas markets. Colin Fenton expanded on the IMF Global Financial Stability Report from April with a handful of key takeaway points.
Thank you to Dr. Koonin for arranging today's discussion at NYU and a special thank you to Matt, Alice, and Beniamin for joining the conversation! We hope you enjoy.
Today we welcomed an old friend, Adam Waterous, to COBT and had a sweeping energy conversation reflective of his 30+ years in energy transactions, financings, investing, and strategy. Adam founded Waterous in 1991, stayed through 2017, and then began Waterous Energy Fund. As you will hear in the discussion, Adam has phenomenal historical perspective, a unique framework for the world from here, and is direct in his candor about what's working and what's not in today's world. It was a fantastic session and we can't thank Adam enough for joining us.
Colin Fenton's inflation commentary added meat to the topic that is the front and center macro driver of current commodity, equity and debt markets... and drives home the point that the current inflation issues are not a post-Ukraine event. Mike Bradley kicked us off with comments leading into Q1 earnings season and observations on energy stocks' relative and absolute performance.
Today’s discussion with Ryan Panchadsaram (senior technical advisor to John Doerr, Chair of Kleiner Perkins) explored a range of topics spanning from VC investing, the tech VC world partnering with the existing energy community to achieve scaled energy solutions, and the climate action plan that was the focus of "Speed and Scale" (which Ryan co-authored). Ryan's technical background and his perspective expressed in the book hit a number of themes that resonate with us – including the topic of a “green” premium and those solutions needing a path to compete on a cost basis, how difficult scaled solutions are to achieve, the innovation opportunities availed by the energy transition movement, and the need for collaboration to arrive at impactful energy market solutions. We have a hope of building more bridges between the tech community and energy industry and were excited to converse with this powerful Silicon Valley investor. Thanks for joining, Ryan!
Mike Bradley kicked us off with observations on both energy equity prices and domestic natural gas prices followed by views on the announced SPR release and potential re-fill (or not) of the inventories. Colin Fenton opened our horizons to the volatility and price action in a number of non-oil and gas commodity markets and drives home the point that extreme price movements are not just captive to our energy markets.
Today we took on the challenge of unpacking the SEC's proposed climate disclosure rules and their potential implications. To help us do so, we had a panel of experienced leaders in the space join for a lively discussion that we hope will provide clarity and understanding. Our panel today includes Travis Wofford, Chair of the Corporate Department in Houston and Vice Chair of the Global M&A Practice and Scott Janoe, Chair of the Environmental, Safety & Incident Response Section from Baker Botts, and Dan Romito, Consulting Partner with Pickering Energy Partners.
The framework of our discussion included an overview of the proposed requirements and background on the buildup to the SEC's new proposals, the key SEC players involved (with some particular focus on the dissenting view from Commissioner Peirce), the likelihood of the proposed rules becoming final, what the disclosures would cost and the potential liabilities for public companies, the potential unintended consequences of these new regulations, whether the SEC should be the governing body addressing these disclosures, implications for small to large companies, the importance of materiality, and the "climate industrial complex," just to hit a few. We greatly appreciate Travis, Scott, and Dan sharing their perspectives and are hopeful these proposed SEC changes can be improved before they are ultimately implemented.
For further reading, Baker Botts has published a thought leadership piece. Statements are also available from SEC Chair Gary Gensler, Commissioner Allison Herren Lee, Commissioner Hester Peirce, and Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw.
Mike Bradley kicked us off with a look at equity and commodity performance for the week, noting US natural gas and Euro natural gas and commodity curves for natural gas vs. WTI crude oil. Colin Fenton helped us all make sense of the complex inflation situation with the Fed and talked about the recent inversion of the yield curve and how to interpret it.
We are amped up for this week's feature session on power with ERCOT. With us today is Brad Jones, Interim President and Chief Executive Officer, and our good friend and former COBT guest Bill Flores, Vice-Chair and Independent Board Member. As a brief introduction, Brad has a 30+ year career in the electricity industry optimizing electricity businesses as well as designing electricity markets and operating electricity grids across North America. Bill previously served as a U.S. Congressman for ten years and has also served in board governance and senior leadership positions for public and private entities. Our conversation had massive scope and depth and it was a pleasure to host them both.
As you may or may not know, Brad stepped up to serve as Interim CEO in 2021 and has since helped to make significant strides in several initiatives for ERCOT. In our discussion, we touch on the changes Brad and the team have made in the past year, background on ERCOT and correlated legislation, the challenge of managing multiple power sources, transitioning priorities from "C.A.R.E" to "R.A.C.E.," transmission planning, the benefits of running a business in Texas, managing electricity in Texas versus other states or countries (today we learned "Dunkelflaute" is the German word for dark and calm, meaning no sun and no wind), and what the next ten years might look like for power. You can find ERCOT's current 60-step road map to improving grid reliability.
The Veriten team had a brief lead-in to start the show: Mike Bradley pointed out a few OFS announcements regarding Russia over the weekend and shared tidbits from Aramco's year-end presentation and conference call. Colin Fenton touched on a few regulatory news items including the SEC's climate disclosure proposal and letters from Congress to the CEOs of energy companies. Todd Scruggs presented background data on ERCOT (courtesy of Orennia) to prepare us for our power discussion.
It was fantastic to visit with Brad and Bill. We hope you enjoy the conversation as much as we did! Thanks to you all.
We have a stellar dynamic duo for this week's session. Our good friends Mark Viviano, Head of Public Equities, and Megan Hays, Managing Director, with Kimmeridge Energy visited us for an engaging and insightful discussion. Mark's investing career has spanned over 17+ years in portfolio management and research analysis on companies in the energy sector, primarily focused on E&Ps and natural resources. Megan has 15+ years of experience in investor relations, strategic communications, M&A, capital markets and ESG. With such a deep wealth of knowledge and expertise, we had lots to cover.
As you will hear in the discussion, our topics ranged from background on Kimmeridge and their strategies and approach to the portfolio, what differentiates good and bad M&A, ESG, E&P performance in the next few years, the global oil and gas markets, and more. We also discussed some of Mark's white papers and touched on the overarching themes including resource transparency, executive compensation, and the potential for a carbon offset price to name a few.
Mike Bradley started us off with an overview of equity and commodity performance over the past week and his thoughts on traditional and clean energy current events. He also touched on key highlights from CERAWeek. Colin Fenton joined us from sunny California (where gas prices are currently nearing $6/gallon) with three items about perception including an update on the energy inverse bubble.
This was undoubtedly a big week for us in Houston with CERAWeek in full force. The conference brought many friends (old and new) to town and that allowed us to really get caught up on so many things.
This morning, Nancy Jacobson (CEO) and Margaret White (Senior Advisor) came to our offices and we had a fabulous discussion. If you aren't familiar with NO LABELS, they are a nonprofit organization based in Washington, D.C. with a mission to combat partisan dysfunction in politics and build a bi-partisan governing coalition to tackle common challenges and push forward the best policies for the American people. That's a mission we can all get behind!
We were so pleased to have the opportunity to visit with them both. Our discussion started with background on NO LABELS, their achievements since inception in 2010, their future goals (starting with the 2024 election and the potential for a NO LABELS-sponsored Presidential Candidate), and the challenges they tackle. You can sign up for updates here and, as mentioned, you can also reach Margaret at Margaret@nolabels.org.
Thanks to you all! We hope you have a fantastic weekend
In addition to a jam-packed CERAWeek full of content, news flow and interesting perspectives, EQT, led by Toby Rice, released its impactful plan of “Unleashing US LNG – The Largest Green Initiative on the Planet.” The 56-page slide deck outlines the ambition to quadruple US LNG capacity by 2030 (what it would take on the upstream, midstream and downstream side) and importantly the global environmental impact (reduces CO2 emission equal to that of electrifying every US passenger vehicle, powering every US home with rooftop solar and adding 54k industrial scales windmills).
The conversation first touched on several themes resonating with the group from time spent navigating the CERA crowd then moved to a discussion of EQT’s US LNG expansion plan and the punchy slides that captured the essence of the messaging. Timing is of the essence for the world to move the needle on its emissions profile (global coal consumption increases last year unwound years of emissions improvement from renewables expansion). From there, we discussed what the US government could do to help this LNG expansion plan be achievable. Toby did a great job of encapsulating the race among energy providers to be 1) cheap, 2) reliable and 3) not just clean…but zero emissions over the next decade.
It’s been an awesome week in Houston exploring the dynamic energy issues. Thank you all for the support and it has been great to see so many of you in person this week.
It's CERAWeek in Houston and we are thrilled to be back in person visiting with great minds in the energy universe. We have a special guest and good friend joining us for this week's session: Arjun Murti, Author of Super-Spiked, Board Member and PE Senior Advisor. Arjun is a seasoned energy expert and has spent his 30-year career researching and analyzing global energy markets. We had much to discuss!
First, we touched on Arjun's recent piece, "Energy Security and the Case for Canada." Arjun provided background on his inspiration to launch his platform, Super-Spiked, and what he is doing to help change the energy dialogue. From there, we segued into energy policies over the last 20 years, why we should be arguing for both energy security and climate, fuel economy and the concept of decoupling economic growth from oil and gas demand growth, the quest for the US and Canada to be the low-cost carbon provider to the world, and his 10-year outlook on energy. It was fascinating to note the many connections between our discussion and the sessions taking place at CERA.
Mike Bradley kicked off today's lead-in with an energy market performance update and key observations from CERAWeek. Colin Fenton shared reflections from his CERA panel that looked at the economic outlook for 2022-2023 and noted a few market numbers to keep an eye on. As you may remember, Colin previously made the connection between box office receipts and economic outlook and to our delight he has updated data from The Batman's recent release.
We are thrilled to have Martin Lovegrove, Co-Founder and Executive Chairman of Kirk Lovegrove & Company join us today. Martin has a wealth of knowledge and experience around strategic advisory, acquisitions, and divestitures with 50 years in the global oil and gas business. In his career, he has advised 120+ clients on over 500 mandates and has developed four independent successful advisory companies along the way. It was wonderful to visit with Martin and get his perspective on all the issues swirling around in today's world. Undeniably, a great deal has happened since last week's episode with Dr. Angela Stent and Dr. Dan Yergin. As we all watch the harrowing humanitarian crisis in Ukraine develop, we wanted to provide a list of organizations that are offering relief support to the country including a few charities specifically focused on children.
In our discussion with Martin, we discussed the current European energy and security mindset, how we got here, the future of oil and gas, his thoughts on key players, the outlook for classic energy companies, the energy transition going forward, the great opportunities the oil and gas industry offers to the next generation, and generally his reflections on a half century of working with the industry. It was incredibly insightful; we very much enjoyed our time with him and know you will enjoy the conversation.
The Veriten team did a fantastic job of summarizing key news items for today's lead-in. Mike Bradley examined equity and commodity performance, noting the past week has been one of the most volatile weeks in energy markets in the past decade. He also presented fascinating data on both the classic and clean energy complexes. You will see a very interesting chart comparing the XLE and the ICLN. Colin Fenton explored where Russia's gas flows are now going in light of recent events, with flows through Ukraine down 50%. Also in Veriten news, today marks Todd Scruggs' official first day and we couldn't be happier to have him join the team. Todd serves as Partner/Investment Opportunities and is already hard at work thinking about investing for the next energy decade.
On this special "Twosday," we had the fortune of welcoming back two special guests for a discussion centered on Russia and the Ukraine and all the potential reverberations from the current conflict. Our first guest is Dr. Angela Stent, Senior Fellow at Brookings and one of the world's leading specialists on the Former Soviet Union, Russia, and Russia's relations with the West. In our discussion, we reference her most recent book, "Putin's World: Russia Against the West and With the Rest." Our second guest is our longtime friend, Dr. Dan Yergin, Vice Chairman at IHS Markit and Chairman of CERAWeek. Dan is the author of a number of seminal books on energy and in our discussion we also touch on Dan's latest book, "The New Map."
Angela provided an excellent synopsis of how and why we got here to launch our conversation. My own personal summary would be an aggressive leader and an aggressive country sensed the time was now to press their agenda. We covered a whole range of important topics with Angela and Dan including Putin's potential master plan, what influenced Putin to start this, how Russia and China are increasingly working together, how this all effects the plans for energy transition, the impact of a potential Iran deal, why energy security is now firmly back on the table, and many other issues. In sum, Dan and Angela tag-teamed everything we threw their way and we came away much more informed. We are so grateful to visit with them both and appreciate them sharing their knowledge and expertise with us all!
As always, our Veriten team kicked off the show: Mike Bradley shared an update on weekly energy performance, upcoming earnings, and his observations on Iranian sanctions vs. OPEC spare capacity vs. crude oil price. Colin Fenton chimed in with a satellite-based count of current global crude oil stocks and freight rates, a snapshot of Chinese-Russian oil flows, and an overview of the current Chinese market economy to prepare us for our global conversation.
Today was another special day here as we had the pleasure of visiting with Senator Dan Sullivan of Alaska. We first met Senator Sullivan when he was Alaska's Commissioner of the Department of Natural Resources. He is now in his second Senate term and is especially focused on helping the people of his State, promoting global security, advancing coherent US energy policy, and as you will hear, developing a cohesive "American Energy, Jobs & Climate Plan."
Senator Sullivan graduated from Harvard and then joined the Marine Corps. He is a rare breed! He is still a Colonel in the Marine Corps (reserves) today and also serves on the Senate Armed Forces Committee. In preparing for today's session with the Senator, we focused on a few key areas: (i) what's happening in Alaska as a result of twenty-one recent Executive Orders that target the State, (ii) the national security implications of US energy policy and how those factors have collided with foreign policy stresses from Afghanistan to China to Ukraine, and (iii) the Senator's push with fellow Senators for an "all of the above" and balanced approach to solving our interlocking economic, energy, and environmental challenges. You can find a fascinating speech the Senator recently gave regarding the Executive Orders targeting Alaska.
Senator Sullivan spoke today as someone who believes in the innovative power of America's industries, including but not limited oil and gas. One of the other great quotes he had (and there were many) was "there is nothing more important than energy literacy." At Veriten, we could not agree more. The better we all understand our choices and the various tradeoffs, the better policies we will make!
Mike Bradley kicked us off by sharing his observations on earnings, interest rates, and oil prices. Colin Fenton chimed in with empirical evidence on how much Mr. Putin's "hand" has grown stronger since the Senator last appeared on COBT during the Spring of 2020. Senator Sullivan updates a point he made in his first appearance, "Putin plays a weak hand well, and we too often play a good hand poorly." As you will see in Colin's dashboard, Putin today has a much better hand as a result of many of the world's policy choices in the last few years.
Today we had an absolutely stellar guest for our COBT discussion, Howard Newman. Howard's career in energy and financial services has included 15 years at Pine Brook Partners, 22 at Warburg Pincus, 10 at Morgan Stanley, and over 45 board roles. His knowledge and perspective are difficult to match and his friendship with us is something we are most lucky to have. As you will hear in the discussion, our topics ranged from private versus public investing, terminal values in classic energy, US drilling inventory, charting the energy transition at the Board level, LNG, nature-based solutions, and of course, what does the energy world look like in ten years? It was a tour de force summary of learnings from all the things Howard has seen and done in his ongoing trailblazing career.
Mike Bradley started us off with a discussion of the markets this past week and year-to-date. He also touched on the BP earnings call from this morning as well as some recent comments from Blackrock on oil and gas investing. Colin Fenton attacked two key topics today. First, we leaned into the data on oil as a hedge against inflation. It's a meaty topic for a five-minute overview, but Colin did a masterful job of analyzing the data. Second, Colin looked at the current condition of the oil market through the lens of futures prices and their presently low volatility. The upshot is the oil recovery most likely still has several years of room to run, despite the speed of the advance to $90 WTI. But as you will hear, we try and bracket this positive outlook, and perhaps temper enthusiasm somewhat, given the occasional large bumps in the road very likely to be encountered over the next 24 months. You will also hear Howard Newman pick up that balanced perspective and discuss why, how, and when capital will return to the oil and gas industry.
We are deeply honored that our first Veriten COBT guest is Secretary James A. Baker, III. A native Houstonian, Secretary Baker is one of the most accomplished and insightful leaders in the past 50 years of American history.
It is undoubtedly difficult to neatly summarize Secretary Baker's accomplishments and contributions to the country and to the world. Mr. Baker served as White House Chief of Staff for President Ronald Reagan from 1981 to 1985, before moving to Secretary of the Treasury from 1985 to 1988. He was President George H.W. Bush's Secretary of State from 1989 to 1992, during which time the Berlin Wall fell, German reunification came to pass, and the Soviet Union dissolved, bringing an end to the Cold War. He served again as White House Chief of Staff and Senior Counselor to President Bush from 1992 to 1993. Altogether, Mr. Baker led five presidential campaigns for three presidents and was a trusted advisor to a fourth. Prior to his time in Washington, Mr. Baker graduated from Princeton University and served in the United States Marine Corps, received his law degree from the University of Texas at Austin, and practiced law in Houston at Andrews and Kurth. In 1994, Secretary Baker founded Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy which is one of the nation's and the world's leading nonpartisan think tanks. He is presently a Senior Partner in the law firm of Baker Botts.
It was our distinct pleasure to host Secretary Baker at Veriten's offices, located at the ION in downtown Houston. In our discussion, we touched on the state of the world, the state of the energy and climate discussion, Ukraine and the issues around it, and other domestic issues including the national debt and inflation. Mr. Baker's knowledge, perspective and humor were encouraging and insightful. At 91, he is still sharper than ever. We are beyond thankful to have spent the time with him and hope you enjoy our discussion as well.
We had a quick lead-in with our Veriten team members Mike Bradley and Colin Fenton. Mike shared a timely market update on the outperformance of energy equities relative to the S&P 500 index. He also shared his expectations about this week's OPEC meeting in light of recent strength in crude oil markets. To frame our national debt discussion, Colin gave an overview of the key data and showed how the massive surge in public debt fuels the inflationary pressures that policymakers have been slow to recognize.
Thank you all for your support and friendship. We extend you a warm welcome to Veriten and look forward to everything to come. We are so excited!
For our first COBT episode of 2022, we had the great pleasure of hosting Rob West, Founder and Lead Analyst at Thunder Said Energy. With the ongoing crisis in European gas markets and the tense uncertainties over Russian troop deployments along Ukraine's border, it was rather fitting that Rob joined us live from Estonia for our global energy and energy transition discussion.
Rob shared the background story on how and why he founded Thunder Said Energy in 2019. One of his main objectives is to identify and track already-existing technologies that could realistically decarbonize the global economy at acceptable cost in coming decades. Then he estimates the optimal mix to accomplish that goal and shares his findings with his clients. To that end, he presented some of the core cost and risk findings from his year-ahead outlook, published yesterday: "Energy crisis: ten themes for 2022?". It was a fantastic and timely conversation and one we know you will enjoy as much as we did!
To start the show, Mike Bradley provided a substantial overview of key energy themes for 2022 and reviewed this week's developments in OPEC+ governance and oil production strategy. Matt Portillo shared the TPH Research outlook for natural gas and crude oil in 2022. Colin Fenton bended our minds with a journey from how the multiverse plot device in the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) franchise is starting to shape other cultural conventions (including energy policy) to yesterday's data on Tesla vehicle inventory currently in stock within 200 miles in Boston. (The punchline is the inventory is scarce, very expensive, and mostly located in New York and New Jersey).
As you all likely know, my official last day at TPH is this Friday, January 7th. My experience at TPH has been a once-in-a-lifetime endeavor and I thank all of you and our past and present TPHers who made it possible. TPH is a special organization and I expect it to continue to thrive.
As of this Friday, we are spinning out COBT into a new business called Veriten, taken from "veritas" and energy to represent "truth in energy." This new energy information platform will have one key mission: to improve the quality and purpose of current debate around the future of energy and the environment. Like you, we want to see a meeting of the minds on climate, economic development, national security, and technology that is as productive and civil as the issues are serious.
While we can't believe we are reaching the end of 2021, today we had a fantastic visit with Carolyn Hansard, Senior Director - Energy, Natural Resources, and Infrastructure, from the Teacher Retirement System ("TRS") of Texas to complete an amazing year of COBT guests. Carolyn's background includes 9 years at TRS and 17 years at Merrill Lynch in London, Tokyo, and New York. She is a longtime friend of ours!
To begin, Carolyn walks us through an overview of TRS and their portfolio. TRS is one of the largest pension funds in the nation and Texas educators make up roughly 6% of the state's population. We touch on the considerations Carolyn and her team make when investing, how those considerations may differ by state, framework for risk and disruption, cryptocurrency and a few concerns to watch over the next few years. With Carolyn, we hit on all the questions you might expect us to, with a twist here and there. Hearing Carolyn addressing the issues of the day from the vantage point of a $19 billion energy investor really adds a lot of perspective. We think you'll enjoy the conversation as much as we did!
The kickoff today was really great. Everyone hit on some of their top themes of 2021. Mike Bradley rattled off a ton of them, with the performance of classic energy being key. Matt Portillo hit on some of the big picture investor themes and preferences underlying that performance. Chad Michael, our new President, reviewed some transactional themes for the year as well. Lastly, Colin Fenton gave a robust summary of the "truth tellers" versus the "dogmatists" as he reflected on the big questions of the year.
Today's COBT is our last for the year. Like you, we are very excited about spending some time with our family and friends. On January 4th, we will be back with a session featuring Rob West from Thunder Said Energy. Rob is a fresh energy thinker and we can't wait to visit with him. We will also share our own reflections on 2021 and introduce our big picture thoughts for 2022.
And... WE ARE MOVING! As you may know, I will be transitioning out of TPH on January 7th. It has been a magical 14 years and 15 days. We are planning on standing up "COBT" as a new platform and that's going to be a very exciting thing. You will be able to find us in the future at our new webpage, www.veriten.com. The first episode of COBT in the new format will be coming your way on Wednesday morning, February 2nd!
Today we had the pleasure of hosting Amy Myers Jaffe, Research Professor and Managing Director of the Climate Policy Lab at the Tufts University Fletcher School. Amy has taught energy policy, business, and sustainability courses at several distinguished universities and recently published "Energy's Digital Future: Harnessing Innovation for American Resilience and National Security."
Our discussion spanned several topics including investor interest in energy, Amy's new book, and hearing about the community at Tufts and what current students are interested in. It was a meaty discussion and we sincerely thank Amy for spending the time with us.
The TPH crew ran through a few items to start: our energy strategist Mike Bradley looked at the energy market over the past week, European energy prices, PPI/CPI vs. government bond prices, and shared an interesting observation about TIME's person of the year. Matt Portillo noted considerations around return to capital in the upstream space and tag-teamed with Matthew Blair who covered key takeaways from a TPH Research conference call on Renewable Volume Obligation and its effects on pricing. Colin Fenton walked us through three prices to pay attention to as we approach year-end.
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
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We are in the middle of an eventful energy news week and are very excited to dig in with all of you for this week's session. We are so pleased to welcome back our good friend Alexander Zaslavsky, Horizon Client Access, to share his expertise in Russian geopolitics and help us understand the current state of energy in Russia and its outlying countries. Oh yes, and one more thing, to help us understand why they might invade Ukraine!
With so much to cover after a meaty introduction, we quickly dove into the current European energy situation, Russian political news, a bit of history with Russian pipelines, Putin, China's role, Russian oil and gas companies, the Ukraine, and much more. It was an engaging global discussion and we know you will enjoy it as much as we did. Thank you Alex for visiting with us!
As mentioned, today's introduction was packed with information: Mike Bradley shared an energy market update and prepped us for our session with Alex with an insightful summary of the top five Russian oil companies stock performance over the last year. Back from NYC, Matt Portillo highlighted client feedback from recent TPH Research marketing trips. Craig Webster joined to report on recent methane headlines including letters that the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Science, Space, & Technology sent to ten companies in the Permian Basin requesting data on their methane measurement and new technology ideas. Also noteworthy is EQT's response to Senator Warren. Colin Fenton also arranged a few slides showing US vs. European natural gas fundamentals over the last 20 years to help frame our European energy discussion.
We had the pleasure of hosting Lior Frenkel, CEO and Co-Founder of Waterfall Security for today's informative session about cybersecurity and energy. Lior has over 20 years of experience with hardware and software research and development and his knowledge in the industry is unparalleled. We had an engaging and eye-opening conversation about cybersecurity threats and Waterfall's unidirectional gateway technology.
Headquartered in Israel, Waterfall's technology protects power plants, pipelines, food and beverage manufacturers, railway systems, airports and more. Their mission is to revolutionize how industries protect physical assets and industrial processes from cyber-attacks. While we may think we are all non-targets for cyber-attacks, with the right capabilities and motivation all institutions are at risk, especially in the industrial sector. Thank you Lior for spending time with us!
To start the session, Mike Bradley talked about overall market volatility, crude oil trading levels, ranges and technical support, and lastly the mood in the market following the SPR announcement, the new COVID variant, and today's Fed testimony. Matt Portillo added to Mike's comments with an update on natural gas and Colin Fenton closed out the opening with a crude oil options market deep dive.
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors. Recipients should not forward this communication to a retail investor.
First of all, a heartfelt Happy Thanksgiving to you all! We all have much to be thankful for and here at TPH/COBT, we are particularly thankful for your friendship.
Last year on Thanksgiving, we gambled and did something that was not only fun but ended up being pretty popular. We did a video featuring energy professionals working on Thanksgiving Day. We were lucky enough to get representation from Phillips 66, Diamondback, Plains All American, and Liberty Oilfield Services. I bumped into a good friend at the API Dinner a couple of weeks ago he asked if we were up to do it again. We honestly hadn't decided at that point but the more we thought about it, the more we wanted to do it.
So here we go! This year's line-up showcases energy life in the field in the Permian, at a natural gas plant south of Dallas, at a control center here in Houston, and at a huge LNG facility in Louisiana. Special thanks to the executive teams at Halliburton, Calpine, and Cheniere for helping us get this done. And special thanks to the group who pulled themselves away from the important jobs they do every day to join us in a Special Thanksgiving discussion:
Robert Dewitt, Calpine
Christopher Jerez, Halliburton
Andrew Sleet, Cheniere
Luke Yardy, Calpine
I don't want to spoil it because I really hope you watch... but the one thing that is inescapable in this video discussion is the determination and grit of the energy industry. It is more than a little reminiscent of the men and women in our Armed Forces. We can rely on them, their work never stops, they are big-hearted, they are smart, and they make it happen for the rest of us.
You will hear in the session that we mention the Thanksgiving table and all of the relatives who might want to talk about energy. For fun, we reached out to Alex Epstein and asked him for his Thanksgiving talking points. As you will see in the attached link, Alex volunteered to help you with your Thanksgiving energy discussions. :-)
Let me wrap this up and let you get back to your Thanksgiving festivities. Please enjoy the day and thank you again for your continued friendship. We would be nowhere without you.
God bless you and your family this Thanksgiving holiday. All the best from the COBT Team!
Today we had some great learning... or we should say "relearning." We had a great visit with Jerry McHugh of "San Juan IQ" - a monthly webcast hosted by Jerry where everything that’s happening in the San Juan basin is discussed. Jerry is a long-time veteran of the basin and has been CEO of San Juan Resources since 1990.
As you will hear, we covered a ton of territory with Jerry today. The basin’s latest production, the rig count, the new (and old) players, the types of wells, the outlook, the potential for LNG, the dealings with the BLM, New Mexico’s new methane regulations, etc. It was a really fun walkthrough of what we all knew as a real granddaddy of US gas basins. Jerry was kind enough to share some summary slides.
Today’s lead-in was outstanding. Mike hit the developments with the SPR and the Biden Administration’s attempt to do “something.” Matt Portillo and Matthew Blair jumped in talked some new work the TPH team has been doing around renewable fuels (big new report out last week). Colin brought us home with a deeper dive on what’s really going on with gasoline prices (after highlighting some of the Administration’s recent comments). It was a zesty lead-in from the TPH crew.
As well turn towards Thanksgiving, we wish you all the best and ARE SO THANKFUL for your friendship. We will tease by sharing we do have something up our sleeve for Thanksgiving day barring technical or other difficulties. Let’s just say it should be the kind of thing your whole family should watch. Or maybe better yet, all of America.
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors. Recipients should not forward this communication to a retail investor.
Today we had a fascinating discussion with the management of California Resources Corporation (CRC) about their low carbon initiatives. President and CEO Mac McFarland and Executive Vice President and CFO Francisco Leon joined us for a walkthrough of their thinking, activities and plans in this super important area. Much like the Apache team joining us to describe their innovative tree program, we hope to continue to highlight companies doing innovative things to make oil and gas cleaner. We are all in this together! We hope by sharing and highlighting innovative practices we can all get better.
What you will hear from the CRC team is that they have been studying these options for a very long time but in the last 6 months or so it was time to make the move. They were already using CO2 for injection but have now thought through storage and sequestration. They have added solar in the field, applied for two Class VI permits and have made a net zero commitment on scope one, two and three emissions by 2045. It's all honestly really impressive stuff. We really appreciate Mac and Francisco joining today. As discussed, you can find their most recent investor presentation and the clean air task force analysis.
We kicked off with Mike Bradley talking a little about what's going on "Over There" and Colin Fenton gave us an awesome tutorial on inflation. There are lots of fun facts but the best one was we have only been above 6 percent inflation (we are 6.2 now) 13 percent of the time since 1950. Transitory is on the verge of becoming predatory.
Craig Webster was able to join us for the CRC discussion as well. We hope you enjoy today's discussion and can take away some things for your own business as you hear the CRC story.
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors. Recipients should not forward this communication to a retail investor.
As you may know, yesterday we hosted our 5th Annual Disruption Conference [D5: Momentum] in Denver. With an audience of over 365 registrants, we had the great opportunity to host the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI). Representing the NEI today are Everett Redmond, Ph.D. (Sr. Technical Advisor, New Reactor & Advanced Technology) and Matthew Crozat (Senior Director, Strategy and Policy Development).
Everett and Matthew walked us through a presentation outlining the NEI, their mission to promote the use and growth of nuclear energy through efficient operations and effective policy, how nuclear fits in the carbon free discussion, their technology members, future projects, and much more. You can find their presentation linked here. We had a great time, learned a lot, and can't thank Everett and Matthew enough for joining! It will be exciting to watch NEI's and the industry’s development over the next decade. We at TPH/COBT are pretty bullish on nuclear being a bigger part of the energy and climate solution.
Our TPH team hit a few topics to kick off the session: Mike Bradley touched on crude oil and the potential SPR release, Matt Portillo discussed auto sector updates, noting the Rivian IPO, and Colin Fenton set the stage for our discussion with NEI. Craig Webster joins live from Denver and adds his observations from the conference.
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors. Recipients should not forward this communication to a retail investor.
We often wonder why and how deals leak... and I can imagine many of you wonder the same. Today, we were excited to host the Abernathy MacGregor team to hear their insights on a few topics including the predictability of deal leaks and employee activism. Joining us today are Sydney Isaacs, Managing Director and Head of the Houston Office along with Blair Hennessy, Managing Director based out of Abernathy's New York office. Sydney and Blair were wonderful guests and we had a really great discussion!
We kick off the episode with some background on Abernathy MacGregor and how they help their clients navigate complex situations with communications, engagement and advocacy expertise. One topic their team has focused on is employee activism and its developing role in M&A. We discussed the debate many companies have on what social topics they should touch on and how employees are driving change.
As you will hear, Blair walked us through advising an M&A client through a deal, how they can best prepare for the deal to leak and the best scenarios for addressing stakeholders when it inevitably happens. Their data is striking on how often deals leak and the the patterns across sectors, seasons or deal size.
To start the show, Mike Bradley shared a few slides showing the US and ECB balance sheets to debt ratio and touched on the OPEC+ meeting taking place later this week. Matt Portillo had a new update from TPH Research on the LCFS market as well as an auto sector earnings update. Craig Webster joined during a busy ESG week with his thoughts around COP26 and the recent proposal to limit methane emissions from oil and gas production. Colin Fenton took us all back to school and examined global oil demand projections.
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors. Recipients should not forward this communication to a retail investor.
We are back from India just in time for the World Series in Houston and had the pleasure of hosting the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) for this week's COBT session. Joining us today are Andrew Howell (Director of Investor Influence) and Andrew Baxter (Director, Energy Transition) to discuss the launch of "ESG by EDF," a new platform which will leverage EDF's deep scientific and policy expertise for the benefit of the investment community. Their first report, "The Burning Question: How to Fix Flaring," looks at flaring data, with the intention of not just benchmarking company performance, but also to offer investors a more complete understanding of why flaring occurs, industry best practices and potential industry-wide solutions.
In the conversation, we touch on the challenges of tackling flaring in less-regulated countries and some of the technologies that are making this possible, as well as the increasingly intense focus on curbing methane emissions. Like so many ESG issues, the solution to problems like flaring hinge on rational discourse which considers both the urgency of the issue as well as the practical challenges (e.g., maintaining safety standards) in resolving it. By providing the investor community a deeper understanding of these types of issues, our friends at EDF bring us one step closer to more of that much needed rational discourse.
We had a really engaging discussion and can't thank both Andrews enough for sharing their time and expertise!
First at bat is our TPH crew: Mike Bradley shared his analysis of what WTI prompt prices and time spreads are telling us. The answer weaves in oil storage projections for Cushing with recent energy headlines. After spending time with investors last week in Toronto, Matt Portillo discussed key themes from the trip, notably an emphasis on return to capital. Colin Fenton joined live from the Kayne Anderson Annual LP conference in LA and shared his observations from the Golden State. And our own ESG specialist, Craig Webster, was the natural clean-up hitter for our ESG discussion with EDF!
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors. Recipients should not forward this co
We have a potpourri of topics for this week's session and are very excited to share them with you all. First, we were delighted to welcome Castlen Kennedy, Vice President, Corporate Communications and Public Affairs and her colleague Gary Clark, Vice President of Investor Relations & Market Intelligence at Apache Corporation. We have all admired the Apache Corporation Tree Grant Program and Castlen and Gary joined to give an excellent overview of the program and its accomplishments.
As you may know, the tree grant program has donated more than 4.8 million trees to U.S. nonprofits and governmental organizations so far. Since its formation in 2005, they have donated trees to schools, parks, cities, wildlife refuges and more in Louisiana, New Mexico, Texas and Wyoming. Castlen and Gary shared how the program developed and some of the interesting challenges they faced in order to meet the program's original goal of donating one million trees. As you will hear, Apache estimates the carbon capture of the trees they have helped plant today reduce about 16 percent of their US emissions.
We also touched on Apache's 2021 Sustainability Report which is scheduled to release on Wednesday morning. Given the effort involved across the entire company, you will hear the team reference the Sustainability Report as "The New Annual Report." It's that meaningful and labor intensive in today's ESG world. The report focuses on three main areas: air, water, and community with Apache's progress and goals for each area.
To add to the mix, this week marks the 5th India Energy Forum by CERAWeek in New Delhi, India, and virtually this week from October 20-22nd and I am attending the event in person! As you'll see in the intro, we have a guest appearance from our good friend Jamey Rosenfield of IHS Markit. This year's key themes include the energy transition, new sources of energy, energy demand and supply chains, Indian Energy sector growth, and everything in-between.
We had an action packed intro from the TPH crew: Mike Bradley showed the correlation between media headlines and oil prices, natural gas levels and what may happen with a cold winter. Colton Bean joined to share renewable power trends from the last few months and passed it to Colin Fenton who expanded on Mike's thoughts with media interest in oil prices and took a look at natural gas futures pricing.
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is
We had the pleasure of visiting with Chet Thompson, President and CEO of the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM) for this week's session. Chet joined us live from Washington where he and his team are working relentlessly to advocate for domestic refiners, petrochemical and midstream companies as well as educating policymakers and the public on the value their members provide for our nation and the world. We had an engaging and timely discussion given the recent proposed tax increases on American refined energy and plastics as well as just the rapidly changing backdrop of rising energy prices globally.
Our discussion begins with some background on AFPM and how they have grown since they were founded in 1902. Currently representing 60+ member companies and 300+ associate members, their focus is on policies, regulations, and legal challenges impacting the downstream sector. As part of their education efforts, AFPM has an entire campaign dedicated to displaying the role petrochemicals play in all of our lives, "We Make Progress." We covered the whole waterfront of issues with Chet and came away super impressed with the depth of what AFPM is doing for the energy transition debate.
To kick off the session, the TPH crew shared current news and themes from this week: Mike Bradley shared energy commodity and equity weekly performance, fertilizer prices vs. Bloomberg's agricultural index and continued his segment of top energy headlines from the last 48 hours. Matt Portillo shared key takeaways after spending time on the road in NYC and Boston and gave us some teasers from his GM analyst day visit. Matthew Blair joined to set the petrochemical stage for our discussion with Chet and Colin Fenton compared the current $80 oil price to oil prices around the world and the odds that we reach $100 crude.
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors. Recipients should not forward this communication to a retail investor.
Today we had the pleasure of hosting two dear and longstanding friends from IHS Markit: Jamey Rosenfield, Senior Vice President and co-founder of CERA along with Dan Yergin, and Dr. Atul Arya, SVP and Chief Energy Strategist. As always happens when we visit with these renowned energy experts, we had a fun and broad conversation across the core topics of the day and really enjoyed our time together!
Jamey and Atul remind us that CERAWeek's India Energy Forum is taking place in New Delhi in just over two weeks. Atul shared key themes including low carbon technologies and innovation, energy competition and business models, new sources of energy, and Indian energy sector growth. Perhaps his most pressing insight is the reminder that energy tech is hardware not software, with all the implications for pace, timing, and prices that fact carries.
Looking ahead to CERAWeek Houston 2022, Jamey confirmed this industry marquee event fill finally once again be in person, much to the relief of us all in TPH Nation. Jamey also scattered a few bread crumbs about what we may see at the conference, including a Net Zero Village that will present in sharp relief what the cloudy concept of 'net-zero' might mean in real-world-cost-benefit terms. With so much to discuss in the current mix of markets, economics, and geopolitics, we quickly found ourselves in an all-energy discussion about coal, nuclear power, the capital and innovation needed to drive the energy transition(s), setting near-term targets for emissions goals, the importance of reliable and affordable energy, and much more. With all this talk about the fascinating things going on in energy and the world broadly, an immediate visit to India might be in order!
The TPH crew ran through a few items to start: our energy strategist Mike Bradley looked at the 10-year history of the commodity spot price index vs. the 10-year government bond yield, European commodity prices over the last month, and recent energy headlines to share his normal assortment of valuable insights. Colin Fenton walked us through global natural gas prices and the European fundamental economics driving them to explain why natural gas prices are already making new all-time highs and to remind us why policy decisions have consequences.
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
Institution
Today's guest is not only a great friend but also a TPH alum! We were so pleased to visit with Brad Olsen, Co-Founder and Portfolio Manager of Recurrent Investment Advisors which focuses their funds on public investments in natural resources and energy infrastructure. Our discussion was fruitful and most importantly good fun! As you will hear, Brad has a lively mind and got us thinking!
After throwing everything but the kitchen sink at Brad during our introduction, he started by sharing some background on Recurrent Investment Advisors. Our discussion flowed from how they structure their benchmarks to their overall investment strategies, the paucity of third party capital for energy investments in the next 5 years, inflation, dynamics in energy public markets, and much much more. Brad was a wonderful guest and we look forward to hosting him again in the future. We didn't let him go today without extracting a promise to come back.
As mentioned, the TPH team kicked off with an action packed introduction: with Matt Portillo on the road, Mike Bradley passed along a few of his natural gas comments and took a look at world oil demand & supply, European commodity prices, and top energy headlines in the last 48 hours. Craig Webster joined to share key points from recent TPH ESG pieces, ESG's Stewardship Conflict and Costs Matter, Even for ESG. Last but not least, Colin Fenton looked at debt and currency trading around the world. The move to the safety of the dollar is seemingly on.
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors. Recipients should not forward this communication to a retail investor.
We are very excited to share this edition of "COBT On the Road" from Van Horn, Texas! This week, we had the amazing opportunity to continue our exploration of space endeavors throughout Texas with a visit to Blue Origin. As part of our behind the scenes visit, we heard the Blue Origin team describe their mission to “build a road to space, step by step ferociously." Our travel squad this week included our good friend Tim Kopra, Former Astronaut and Vice President of Robotics and Space Operations at MDA, Mike Bradley, Managing Director, Capital Solutions at TPH, Harvin Moore, Principal of Frontera Technology Ventures, and Gary Morris, Senior Advisor at TPH with our Energy Technology team.
It was an extraordinary visit. Seeing people doing what some would have said was impossible not long ago is tremendously inspiring. The people at Blue Origin are world class and could not have been nicer hosts. In addition to our Blue Origin facility tour we also went into Van Horn and had a great local lunch. The opportunities and the challenges in Van Horn are not unlike those we encountered in Brownsville when we saw SpaceX. One of the key takeaways from both visits is it's important to see what's happening as a launch pad to an entirely new industry, and not just near term experimentation. What all of this could look like in ten years (just to pick a date) truly blows the mind. We at TPH are having a ton of fun thinking about all the possibilities and hope you are too.
As you will hear, we kicked off with today's market update segment with the COBT crew: Colin Fenton joined live from New York (fittingly from a cab) and shared some of the events taking place this week in the city including Climate Week and Biden’s address to the UN. Mike Bradley touched on inflation trends and passed it to Matt Portillo who had a number of updates including TPH's RNG Conference last week, the LCFS market, the recent TPH Research Capital Allocation piece and getting back on the road with TPH Research.
Visiting Blue Origin was certainly an exciting opportunity for us, but nothing nearly as exciting as the opportunities that the new space race presents to all of us. We hope you enjoy it as much as we do!
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this
We had the great opportunity to visit with Mike Sommers, President and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute (API) in today's session. Founded over 100 years ago, the API represents all segments of America's oil and natural gas industry with over 600 current members. Their mission is to promote safety across the industry globally and to influence public policy in support of a strong, viable U.S. oil and natural gas industry. They are fighting hard in today's politically overcharged Washington DC - it was a real honor and pleasure to host Mike today.
Our discussion started with API's history and how they work with their members to advance policy at the federal and state level. We touched on a number of topics including U.S. energy independence, the shale revolution, API's Environmental Partnership Program, their Climate Action Framework to advance new technologies, coal to gas switching, the frequently undiscussed cost benefit analysis framework in GHG reduction, and much much more. It was a passionate, candid and informative discussion and we want to thank Mike and his team for their time and commitment to educating our elected representatives.
The TPH crew kicked off the conversation: Mike Bradley took a look at rising European power prices and implications ahead of the UN Climate Conference in November. Matt Portillo echoed Mike's comments and turned it over to Matthew Blair who shared a few key points from TPH Research's recent "RNG 101" report.
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors. Recipients should not forward this communication to a retail investor.
Heidrick & Struggles recently released a new report we think you will all find interesting and informative! The report, "Aligning Culture with the Bottom Line: How Companies Can Accelerate Progress," includes results from surveying 500 CEOs from around the world about how they define culture and how it influences financial performance. We had the pleasure of welcoming back our good friend Les Csorba, Partner in Heidrick & Struggles' CEO & Board of Directors Practice as well as Mark Zorbas, Partner with Heidrick's Consulting Practice to help us dig in to the report's findings.
As you will hear, Les and Mark walk us through the report's data and how companies may be missing the connection between focusing on culture and also recognizing culture as a top objective for financial performance. It was a fascinating discussion and we want to thank Les and Mark for sharing their expertise!
The TPH crew kicked off with this week's newsworthy topics and events: Mike Bradley covered GOM production shut ins, energy market performance, and market performance since Q2 earnings reporting. Matt Portillo mentioned TPH's upcoming Spraberry to Mayberry Conference taking place on September 15th and shared midstream team tidbits from on the road. Colin Fenton shared a commodities and global macro update with a reminder that oil has not reached peak demand.
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors. Recipients should not forward this communication to a retail investor.
As we head into the Labor Day weekend here in the US, we have something we think you will find most intriguing for a Close-of-Business Thursday! We were lucky enough today to visit with Francesco La Camera, the Director General of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). Francesco has over thirty years of experience in climate and sustainability and oversees IRENA's strategy and partnerships with 165 nations that are members of the agency.
IRENA is headquartered in Abu Dhabi. Their focus is to support countries in their transition to a sustainable energy future by providing practical tools and policy advice to accelerate renewable energy development. Francesco joined us from Rome for a fascinating discussion of today's energy, regulatory and technology world from his perspective. With the Glasgow Climate Summit right around the corner, today's discussion was a fascinating survey of the world from a very respected renewable energy perspective. We learned so much and can't thank Francesco enough for his thoughts and time.
As you will hear, we leaned into the lead-in today with more force than usual. Mike Bradley does his usual market update but also provides a year-to-date perspective across all of energy. Matt Portillo gave a detailed update on the "renewables macro" to get our juices flowing prior to our discussion with Francesco. Colin Fenton added his spice with a few comments on global markets and CO2 allowance prices in Europe.
All the best to all of you! Have a great and relaxing Labor Day Weekend!
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors. Recipients should not forward this communication to a retail investor.
For the past ten days, we have watched the events unfolding in Afghanistan with a mixture of alarm and sadness. Unfortunately, the situation on the ground remains dangerous and unresolved.
For guidance, today's main segment features two former State Department officers whose expertise ranges from counterterrorism and human rights to the geopolitics of the energy transition. We are very lucky to welcome back our friend Frank Fannon, Managing Director of Fannon Global Advisors, Senior Advisor at the Center for Strategic International Studies and the Inaugural Assistant Secretary of State for Energy Resources. Through Frank, we also got to visit with Nathan Sales, Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, Former Acting Under Secretary of State for Civilian Security, Democracy, and Human Rights and Former Ambassador-at-Large for Counterterrorism. It was a fascinating discussion with multiple side alleys. The world suddenly feels like a less predictable place again. With their thoughtful perspectives, Frank and Nathan help us to understand the geopolitical ramifications a little better.
The associated human tragedy is no less unsettling. We also include the personal story of Corey Mazza, a Harvard football player, U.S. Marine and former platoon leader in Afghanistan. Earlier this week, from his home in Los Angeles and managing around his current job in a private wealth management business, Corey worked the phones to help achieve the successful evacuation of his former unit's Afghan translator. He describes the ongoing efforts to get our friends and allies out of Afghanistan by August 31st and gave us visibility on how veterans and others are mobilizing here at home and abroad to do anything they can to help.
Mike Bradley and Colin Fenton kick in some good things to get us going. Mike talks about oil and the recent rally and what's been helping turn the screen green. Colin provides the data on China's engineered economic slowdown, which the PBOC is now starting to reverse. He also discusses Monday's announcement of crude oil sales from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (whose negative effect on sour crude prices has been more than offset by the shut-in of one quarter of Pemex production) and the ballooning U.S. public debt (now 125% of GDP), as another game of political chicken gets played with the debt ceiling. The US debt stats are sobering and we need to de-lever, at least that's what my CFO friends would tell me.
We hope you find this episode as informative and inspirational as we did. What's happening in Afghanistan is devastating and we're all praying it ends as well as possible. We also know these events will be affecting our future in ways we just can't anticipate yet. One thing we do know... we all need people, like Corey, who put public service first.
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or
This is a stunningly big week for energy networking. In Denver, EnerCom is hosting The Oil and Gas Conference at the Westin and in Houston, the NAPE Summit is taking place at the George R. Brown Convention Center, and the Offshore Technology Conference is happening at NRG. Holding conferences the same week in Houston, NAPE and OTC have joined forces with their "Synergy in Energy" program which allows attendees to visit both conferences. We salute EnerCom, NAPE, and OTC for their efforts to help us all have a chance to shake hands again.
We took a trip to the NAPE exhibition hall to see the pregame action live and had the chance to visit with Aaron Vandeford, President of EnerCom as well as Jennifer Palladina Taylor, Business Development Manager at NAPE to hear all about these two flagship conferences. We covered a number of topics in our discussion starting with some history about the two conferences, the types of attendees and investors they are drawing and how that has changed, how their themes have morphed in the past few years, and overall how excited they are to be in person again. Thanks to Aaron and Jennifer for taking time out of their busiest week of the year to visit with us. We had a great conversation!
We started the session with the TPH team: Mike Bradley shared an update on the oil market, the Delta virus overhang, and current stock trading levels. Colin Fenton took us to the future with new fusion energy technology from the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory and also put the spotlight on two recent "letter writing campaigns" coming out of Washington DC.
It's a huge week for pressing ahead and also continuing to be careful. One of the great things you will hear in today's segment is that at NAPE they have set up a vaccination station sponsored by the good folks at Kroger.
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors. Recipients should not forward this communication to a retail investor.
When we heard about all of the great things the Permian Strategic Partnership (PSP) is doing for the Permian Basin, we knew we had to visit with them and also knew that all of you would love to hear more about their mission. We had the special opportunity to host Tracee Bentley, President and CEO, to discuss their annual report published just last week.
Formed in January 2019, the PSP is a coalition of 17 leading Permian Basin energy companies who joined together to tackle some of the area's largest challenges including education, healthcare, infrastructure, workforce, and housing. Their member's grit, determination and can-do attitude have made lasting impact over the last 2.5 years and show the power of putting great minds together. We can't say enough great things about the PSP's contribution to the Permian and beyond!
Tracee walked us through PSP's history as well as their recent report. It was encouraging to hear their success and we had a wonderful discussion. Thank you to Tracee and all of the members at PSP making a difference for the community!
Our TPH team hit a few topics to kick off the session: Matt Portillo emerged from the earnings cloud to share his key takeaways from a TPH Research private investor conference hosted on Wednesday of last week. Craig Webster prepared us for the discussion with Tracee with a reminder of the importance of sustainability and how the PSP embodies the definition.
We hope this provided some good news for your Monday morning! Thanks to all of you from all of us at TPH.
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors. Recipients should not forward this communication to a retail investor.
Tuesday was incredible. We traveled to Denver and drove about an hour to Greeley, Colorado. Greeley is the largest city (population of ~110K) in Weld County (~325K people). We went to Weld out of pure fascination - fascination with the county that produces over 80 percent of the oil and 60 percent of the total oil and gas in the state. It is a part of Colorado that loves ranching, agriculture, oil and gas, and the land itself. We loved every minute of our full day visit.
We start off at Stockman's Café. The owner, Pat, served us hot coffee and made room as we shot the opening market segment in a prime location in the corner of her diner. From there, you will see we went to seat of local government and met two of the five Weld County Commissioners, Mike Freeman and Steve Moreno. There are three districts in Weld, each with a Commissioner. There are also two At-Large Commissioners. These five individuals handle all of the government business in the County. It's a fascinating and seemingly very effective form of government.
You'll see we went back to Stockman's to meet with not only the County Commissioners but also Greeley City Council members including the County Attorney, Bruce Barker, the County Head of Planning and Building Services, Tom Parko, Director of the Weld County Oil and Gas Department, Jason Maxey, and a current Greeley City Councilman At-Large and former Mayor, Ed Clark. The food, the conversation, and real world grit were all fantastic. Weld County is "Can Do" America.
We concluded the day with a visit to a drillsite. The PDC Energy team was kind enough to give us a tour of their Thunder Rig site. The people there could not have been nicer nor could they have been more proud of what they are doing. Visiting an active rig is a reminder of the hard work and determination it takes to fuel a nation.
In our lead in this week, you will hear we hit some big topics: Mike Bradley shared a brief oil market update and passed it to Craig Webster for a briefing on the recent IPCC report. Colin Fenton looked in his crystal ball to preview a picture of what the future might look like and also took a look back at what has happened in 2021 so far. Also joining us today for his first COBT appearance is Jeff Knupp who as you may know is the head of our Denver banking office and has led all of our DJ Basin projects.
From this week's video we hope you get what we got - a big dose of enthusiasm for what's possible in "Can Do America."
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global
We hope you are excited for a 45Q deep dive! We had the great opportunity to learn from some of the most credible 45Q experts in this week's session. Joining us today are Barbara de Marigny, Partner (Tax) at Baker Botts and Aileen Hooks, Partner (Environmental) at Baker Botts. As you may know, the section 45Q tax credit is one of the most promising economic incentive structures for the energy transition. We were certainly glad to spend time with Barbara and Aileen to dive into the nuts and bolts of 45Q. These ladies actually made tax fun!
Our discussion begins with a look at 45Q's history from its introduction in 2008 to becoming much more widely popular with a re-vamp in 2018. From there, we touched on the amount of credit allotted, ownership rights, the carbon capture process, tax equity, requirements around qualifying facilities, secure geological storage and beyond! As you will hear, Barbara and Aileen are highly experienced in the field and it was our pleasure to visit with them.
The TPH crew launched today's conversation: Mike Bradley shared key takeaways from E&P earnings this week, emphasizing a focus on return of capital and Matt Murphy chimed in with his thoughts on E&P earnings from his seat in TPH Research. Colin Fenton pointed out inflationary pressures in the housing market with demand for apartments at a 50 year high.
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors. Recipients should not forward this communication to a retail investor.
Here at TPH we pride ourselves on being 'all energy, all the time'; this week's guests are also 'all energy, all the time'! We had the great opportunity to host the Upstream team to hear all about their paper, how they operate and what they are excited about in energy. With us today is Leia Marie Parker, Editor in Chief, Jennifer Lynn Presley, Americas Bureau Chief and Fabio Palmigiani, South American Correspondent.
Our discussion kicked off with Leia, joining us from London, to give us a broad overview of Upstream and their team of 17 journalists across the globe. Jennifer expanded on three of the current upstream hot topics, including shale, offshore and the energy transition focused on the Americas. Fabio chipped in with activity taking place across Latin America and interesting developments there. Thank you to the team for joining and for putting forth great energy journalism every day!
As always, our TPH crew provided a brief intro: with earnings in full swing, Mike Bradley touched on what to expect from natural gas companies reporting later this week. Colin Fenton raised the importance of journalistic integrity with a few examples of science and skepticism.
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors. Recipients should not forward this communication to a retail investor.
Today we had the pleasure of hosting Al Carnrite, Founder and CEO of The Carnrite Group. Al has been a tremendous resource to many of us in the industry and we had a great visit discussing today's world, current trends the Carnrite team is seeing and what the future of the industry may look like. As you will hear, Al is direct, fun, and very knowledgeable.
The Carnrite Group is based out of Houston with remote offices in the UK and UAE. They are a uniquely energy focused boutique consulting practice advising companies and executives across the entire energy value chain on strategy, cost, the energy transition, digital transformation and more from operations to the board room. Al is full of 40 plus years of energy wisdom and we really enjoyed spending time with him.
We launched the session with a discussion on newsworthy topics and events from the last week: Mike Bradley shared a market update on crude oil and equities. Colin Fenton continued the COVID-19 variant discussion and prepared some carefully crafted slides on interpreting the latest COVID statistics as well as their effect on crude oil.
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors. Recipients should not forward this communication to a retail investor.
With so much in the news recently about the private "Race to Space," you may share a curiosity of ours, and that is "how far along are the commercial space businesses that have planted roots in Texas?" We have specifically been drawn to the exciting developments rapidly unfolding at Boca Chica, Texas just outside Brownsville. Our chance for an in-person tour and expert briefing came when we reconnected with friend, technology entrepreneur, former NASA astronaut, and current President of Robotics and Space Operations at MDA, Tim Kopra.
Tim connected us with Brownsville's dynamic mayor Trey Mendez. Trey graciously helped arrange - and both Trey and Tim joined us for - a VIP tour of SpaceX. We walked through both the spaceship assembly plant and the launch site. We were blown away by the sheer scope of what Elon Musk and his team have built in just eighteen months. As we remark in the video, "it looks like a miniature Manhattan."
Trey also sat down with us to share his vision for building on this success. With a firm commitment to quality of life, Brownsville aims to attract the world's smartest, most competitive, most forward-looking and most fun businesses and people to this beautiful seaside community on the Gulf of Mexico. Trey, Tim, and everyone in the Brownsville ecosystem are passionate about forging Texas as the launch pad for humanity's permanent off-world research stations and settlements across the universe.
We kicked off the session with some great pregame from our team. Mike Bradley walked us through the latest specifics on OPEC+ supply plans and their effect on oil prices. Matt Portillo gave us a preview for earnings season, and Colin Fenton got us in "Space Shape" with some tailored space-oriented observations.
Thursday was incredible. Brownsville is experiencing massive growth and transformation. If Cape Canaveral or Huntsville was "the place to be" for aerospace engineers and explorers in the 20th Century, Brownsville surely makes a compelling case as the new frontier heading toward the 22nd Century. We are so excited about the hub for interplanetary exploration that's being built here in South Texas.
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
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Today we had the honor and pleasure of hosting U.S. Congresswoman Lizzie Fletcher (D-TX). Representing Texas's Seventh Congressional District - in the greater Houston area which many of us call home, Congresswoman Fletcher is committed to bridging the toxic hyper-partisan divide that puts blind politics ahead of common-sense solutions we can all get behind for the advancement of freedom and happy growth in our world. We commend her positive and collaborative spirit. We had a terrific visit and touched on her constituents' biggest priorities, the enthusiasm behind the quest for Houston to be a leader in the carbon capture space, specific priorities for a large infrastructure ("it's investment not spending"), and more.
With us also today is Bobby Tudor, Chairman of TPH, and former Chair of the Greater Houston Partnership, an organization devoted to finding non-partisan solutions to society's most pressing problems. Bobby will not be happy with me for flagging that the esteemed Financial Times of London in an article earlier this week applauded his own efforts to find the right balance between environmentalism and energy in all its forms. The article quotes, "If Houston wants to continue to be the world's leading energy capital, then it's going to need to be a leader in the newer forms of energy."
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors. Recipients should not forward this communication to a retail investor.
We have an exciting episode for you today! For the first time, representation from the entire TPH Research Team headlined this week's session to share key observations from the first half of the year and key focus areas as we enter the second half of 2021.
Our all-star TPH Research lineup and their respective topics included:
Matt Portillo, Managing Director, E&P Research | Upstream & Automotive
Matt Murphy, Director, Integrateds and Upstream Research | Oil and Gas Macro
Matt Taylor, Director, Midstream Research | Natural Gas Liquids Macro
Colton Bean, Director, Midstream Research | Midstream and Renewable Power Sector
George O'Leary, Managing Director, Energy Services & Equipment (ESE) | ESE and Solar
Matthew Blair, Managing Director, Refining and Chemicals Research | Refiners, Chemicals & Renewable Diesel
We had an overwhelming amount of brain power join us today. As you will hear, there was a lot to matador around! Big thanks to the team for joining and for bringing a handful of slides to help guide the conversation. Please let us know what you think!
To kick things off today, Mike Bradley shared his observations from the recent OPEC+ meeting (so he had a lot to cover!).
Thanks again to the team and thanks to you all! We hope you enjoy it!
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors. Recipients should not forward this communication to a retail investor.
A few weeks ago, President Biden met with Russian President Putin in Geneva for their first summit. Since then, we have searched for a Russian expert - and wow, did we get lucky! We found Dr. Angela Stent, Director of the Center for Eurasian, Russian and East European Studies and Professor of Government and Foreign Service at Georgetown University. Dr. Stent is also a non-resident Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution.
As excited as we were, it was even better than what we expected. Her background is so extensive (you may read her full biography here) and there is no angle she hasn't seen. Our discussion crossed many borders and we started with Dr. Stent's latest book, "Putin's World: Russia Against the West and With the Rest." From there, we learned about Putin's childhood, how Russia operates, how they might perceive the energy transition, the Tokyo Olympics, and importantly the relationship between the U.S., Russia and China. We had a wonderful time and can't thank Dr. Stent enough for sharing her knowledge with us.
Our TPH crew had some topical items to prepare us for our Russian discussion: Mike Bradley opened with an OPEC+ meeting preview and also reviewed what has happened since their last meeting. Matt Portillo chimed in with a look at equity and natural gas outlook and demand through 2022. Colin Fenton summarized current conditions by pulling 5 main headlines over the past few weeks including Russia, solar, nuclear, climate law and geothermal.
We want to sincerely thank Dr. Stent for her time and expertise. Thanks to you all! We hope you enjoy.
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors. Recipients should not forward this communication to a retail investor.
One year ago, Greentown Labs announced they were expanding to Houston to open their second incubator. Today, we were thrilled to visit their new space in Midtown and host this week's session live with Emily Reichert, Chief Executive Officer. Their team has made tremendous progress over the past year and we are so pleased to welcome them to Houston and the energy community.
Founded in Cambridge, MA, Greentown Labs is the largest climatetech incubator in North America. Their mission is to help early stage companies get started by providing the expertise, resources and support they need. Today, Greentown Labs supports over 180 climatetech startups, 40 of those in Houston. In today's discussion, you will hear Emily explain why "climatetech" is the name Greentown prefers.
The team and I greatly enjoyed visiting with Emily to hear all about Greentown's expansion, the factors that they used to select Houston, the future of new energy technologies, how America is well suited to be a leader in the space, and much more. Emily also took us through the incubation process at Greentown and how their alumni continue to be involved post-launch. It was a shame we had to end the discussion as we had plenty more questions and topics to discuss. We hope you enjoy as much as we did... Emily was a wonderful and engaging guest.
Our TPH expert crew provided today's introduction: Mike Bradley offered some oil and market outlook and analysis and also touched on considerations around inventory for the next few weeks. Matt Portillo shared TPH Research's piece on shared private operator activity in the US and also some reflections on recent investor visits. The ever-entertaining Colin Fenton wrapped up with data around $100 calls on WTI. The stats will blow you away.
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors. Recipients should not forward this communication to a retail investor.
This week we had the great opportunity to visit with Greg McLean, Member of Parliament representing Calgary Centre in the Canadian House of Commons. In 2020, Greg introduced a bill to create a non-refundable performance-based tax credit for carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) projects. We took great interest in hearing Greg's story and were very pleased to visit with him.
We started with background on Greg's motivation to switch from a career as a portfolio manager to becoming a Member of Parliament and quickly found ourselves entrenched in a discussion around carbon capture, pipelines, Greg's bill, considerations around Canadian oil exports, the future of energy, and the role of Parliament.
We kicked off with an update from the TPH crew: Mike Bradley provided an analysis of commodity and natural gas prices and summarized key points from the G7 summit meeting which concluded this week. He also previewed the upcoming FOMC meeting. Colin Fenton prepared four charts on comparative pricing ending on a positive note for the energy space.
The team and I had a great time visiting with Greg and want to thank him for his time and for being a 'climate warrior.'
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors. Recipients should not forward this communication to a retail investor.
Yesterday at our annual Hotter 'N Hell Conference, we saw so many of you and absolutely loved it. I think everyone in the room had a sense of "life is back!" and all loved it.
We had some phenomenal guests and a broad array of energy flavors up for discussion. The theme I kept finding myself coming back to is there has never been a more fascinating time to be in energy. The issues and opportunities also feel remarkably global again and that is no doubt going to be a big part of the fun.
As you will see here, we shot a "live COBT" from the conference featuring Chris Wright. Chris and his team at Liberty have recently released a dramatic new type of ESG report which captures the full extent of energy and the environment in today's world. It is unlike any ESG report that we know of and would encourage all of you to take a look.
In the lead-in, Mike, Matt and Colin gave some market and conference-driven thoughts that got our juices flowing. We moved from there to a full on "ESG and Me" conversation with Chris that was fantastic.
For those in attendance or virtual yesterday, thank you. It was fantastic to be with you and we frankly value your friendship so much.
We hope you have a great weekend and we'll be back with you next week!
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors. Recipients should not forward this communication to a retail investor.
We hit a triple today with this week's guests! We were thrilled to welcome three leadership members from the Independent Petroleum Association of America (IPAA).
We had the pleasure of hosting Barry Russell, President and CEO, Dan Naatz, EVP of Government Relations and Political Affairs, and Mallori Miller, VP of Government Relations. The IPAA is critical in serving on behalf of the exploration and production segment of the industry to help representatives in Congress fully understand the scope and importance of the sector. We had an engaging conversation about how the industry has evolved, the IPAA as an organization, the core objectives for the IPAA, their work with regulatory agencies and Capitol Hill, their ESG program, and much more.
Our expert TPH crew launched today's conversation: Mike Bradley touched on current market conditions and what to look out for in the next few days. Matt Portillo expanded on Mike's natural gas pricing thoughts and also previewed our Hotter 'N Hell Conference taking place this Thursday. Colin Fenton peppered in his comments around CPI and natural gas.
As always, thank you for watching! We hope you enjoy.
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors. Recipients should not forward this communication to a retail investor.
We have a COBT Special Edition for you this week! We had the pleasure of visiting with a great friend of the firm, Jason Schenker. Jason is Chairman of the Futurist Institute, President of Prestige Economics and a renowned futurist, economist, speaker and author. This special edition is centered around Jason's latest book, "The Future of Travel: Trends and Technologies Shaping the Decade Ahead: The Futurist Institute."
The Future of Travel investigates COVID's effects on travel, leisure and hospitality for the decade ahead. It touches on technology, "revenge travel," activity levels, supply and demand of tourism, and much more. We had a great time discussing the book, the future of business travel, the war for talent, and how travel demand may look over the next year. We kick off with a brief economics discussion on the Employment Situation Summary, which is scheduled to be released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics today, as well as the Consumer Price Index for May, scheduled to be released on June 10th.
Colin, Mike, Matt and I had a lot of fun visiting with Jason and want to thank him for his time. We hope you all have a great weekend and enjoy "The Future of Travel!"
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors. Recipients should not forward this communication to a retail investor.
We were thrilled to welcome Les Csorba, Partner in the CEO and Board of Directors Practice at Heidrick & Struggles for this week's COBT session. Les is a highly experienced executive placement expert and his work focuses on senior-level assignments including CEO and board members across the entire energy value chain.
Les began with providing background on Heidrick & Struggles' energy practice. As you will hear, the energy industry is seeing a tremendous demand for new directors. We had a far-reaching discussion covering what Les is currently seeing across boardrooms, the growing demand for board members with energy transition experience, board refreshment trends, ESG and board compensation. It was a pleasure to visit with and learn from Les and we are thankful to have spent the time with him.
The TPH team kicked off the session: Mike Bradley covered the latest OPEC developments and offered some oil market outlook. Colin Fenton prepped us for the start of summer with an analysis on ethanol, gasoline, corn and cattle.
Thank you Les for a great discussion. Energy industry corporate governance is an always topical and interesting subject. We hope you find today's conversation helpful!
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors. Recipients should not forward this communication to a retail investor.
For this week's session, we had the opportunity to visit with a great friend of the firm: J.P. Bauman, Principal at Altira Group. As you may know, Altira Group is a Denver-based venture capital firm that takes earned pride in building companies focused on the technology and software that will underpin the sustainable, vibrant, and fun future of supplying energy to all of us. We also had the opportunity to visit with one of Altira's amazing portfolio companies, FlexGen.
FlexGen is one of the biggest energy companies in the crucial yet still emerging industrial/utility-scale battery segment. We had the pleasure to hear from Kelcy Pegler, Chief Executive Officer, and Yann Brandt, Chief Financial Officer. Kelcy and Yann gave an overview of FlexGen's business and were kind enough to answer our many questions about the future of power grids large and small, how flexible battery storage will fit into that model, the company's roots in creating homeland jobs for US veterans, and what they've learned along the way so far. We had a great time and a fantastic discussion.
We kicked off the session with our panel of TPH experts: Mike Bradley provided an insightful update on market dynamics, Matt Portillo walked us through TPH Research's Global Automotive Forecast and Battery Cost Update and handed it to Colin Fenton who served a smorgasbord of warning signs now creeping up in emerging markets and segued from analysis of this week's G-7 climate communiqué and IEA Roadmap 2050 into our discussion with this week's guests.
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors. Recipients should not forward this communication to a retail investor.
On this week's COBT, we were very honored to be joined by Dr. Steven Koonin, author of a new book entitled "Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn't, and Why It Matters." The title refers to the central thesis of the book... which is that in the rush to proclaim climate science definitive, we are glossing over and failing to speak honestly about so much that remains to be "settled." The book is a highly technical but also highly understandable tour of what we know, of the major studies that have been done by the UN, the US, and other bodies, of what the attempts at modeling the climate tell us and what the key assumptions really are. Along the way Dr. Koonin addresses many of the popular press-driven views on human-driven climate change and also offers his own thoughts about the right way forward. More than anything, he challenges us all to return to science and get away from "The Science"... his way of saying intellectual honesty and the pursuit of the truth must be made the primary goal. The stakes are high and we must stop the polarizing debate that's getting in the way of thoughtfulness as we approach all the choices before us.
Dr. Koonin has an incredible background that has led him to write "Unsettled." A former Chief Scientist at BP from the "Beyond Petroleum" era, he served in the Obama Administration as the Undersecretary for Science in the Department of Energy. He is a graduate of both Caltech and MIT and today is a professor at NYU. The book has been a huge seller and it's clear that it has struck a chord with so many of us. TPH has purchased a very large order and will be making them available to guests at our upcoming "Hotter 'N Hell" energy conference in Houston on June 10th.
We all read the book ahead of the discussion and wholeheartedly recommend it. It is very thought-provoking and does a great job laying out the complexity of the issues. We are most honored to have made a new friend in Dr. Koonin.
We kicked off today with a quick discussion of the news and views of the last week. Mike Bradley touched on recent discussion around the JCPOA agreement and its effect on the market, Matt Portillo provided some background on TPH Research initiating coverage on Ford and GM, and finally Colin Fenton gave a brief market update and prepped us for the discussion with Dr. Koonin.
Read "Unsettled" when you can. We learned a lot and had a ton of fun discussing it with Dr. Koonin!
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Ho
This week we had the great opportunity to visit with Todd Kantor, Founder, Managing Member and Portfolio Manager at Encompass Capital Advisors. Encompass is a highly regarded energy-focused investment firm, headquartered in New York.
Today's discussion touched on a bit of everything including current investment trends, the team at Encompass, ESG, natural gas outlook, SPACs, the oil macro, Iran, and the energy transition investment space... just to name a few! Todd is a great friend of the firm and we had a fantastic discussion.
As always, the TPH crew covered a few topics to kick things off: Mike Bradley covered the Colonial Pipeline outage and its potential impact for prices and politics. We also discussed the recent debate in Michigan over an important pipeline. Matt Portillo expanded the discussion to include propane inventory levels in Michigan and for the US looking to the remainder of the year. Matt also touched on Q1 earnings for the upstream sector and passed it to Colin Fenton for a summary of unique events from this week, ending with a positive note on COVID-19 conditions in the US.
All the best from all of us at TPH!
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors. Recipients should not forward this communication to a retail investor.
Texans have forever prided themselves on our hardworking, gritty and friendly nature. We were lucky enough to visit with Dick Weekley this week who embodies all of those qualities and more. Dick is a true champion for the State of Texas - as a Texas Business Hall of Fame honoree, a philanthropist with several Texas based organizations, and with the work he and the team at Texans for Lawsuit Reform (TLR) are doing to keep Texas the pro-business place it is.
Today we heard the story of how he and his brother David got started in the home building business (and ultimately built David Weekley Homes into the largest private homebuilder in the U.S.) and how he began to get involved in the litigation-plagued days of the early 1990s and ultimately co-founded TLR. As you will hear, TLR is an advocate for businesses across the state by both fighting against abusive lawsuits to businesses and also supporting pro-business reforms.
It was a fantastic discussion and we couldn't be more thankful to Dick for his time and the work he is doing for Texas. A full complete copy of the slides from today's presentation can be found here.
The TPH team kicked off the session with some thoughts around price formation: Mike Bradley discussed the market's concerns about policy-fueled inflation, unintentionally candid sentiments from Treasury and the party line from the Federal Reserve; Matt Portillo continued the theme with observations on supply-chain disruptions and cost-push dynamics across the automotive sector. Colin Fenton shared a few tactical commodity slides to remind us the paths of commodity prices can stumble and fall even in inflationary environments.
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors. Recipients sh
Today we had the pleasure of hosting Bill Farris, Associate Laboratory Director for Innovation, Partnering, and Outreach at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). In his role, Bill focuses on the NREL's partnership activity and accelerating commercialization and the transfer of laboratory technologies to the marketplace. He's worked on some pretty fascinating projects and we had a great time learning more about the NREL and their programs.
The NREL is headquartered in Golden, Colorado. Bill took us through a presentation covering background on the lab, why they exist and their role between research and partnering with industry, government, and non-profits. Their work reduces the risk of bringing innovations to market by bridging the gap between innovative ideas and production. We learned a lot and encourage you to visit the NREL the next time you find yourself in the Denver area!
We kicked of the session with our usual COBT crew: Mike Bradley touched on OPEC+, earnings chatter, and gave a preview of oil major earnings this week. Matt Portillo continued the earnings discussion with a preview of upstream earnings and provided a gas market update. Colton Bean also joined today's session and gave an update on a few recent TPH Research coverage initiations in renewable power. Last but certainly not least, Colin Fenton shared four examples of the quest for the radical middle from news and recent events this week.
We could have continued the discussion with Bill for much longer and want to thank him for joining. We hope you enjoy!
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors. Recipients should not forward this communication to a retail investor.
In honor of Earth Day, we are thrilled to bring you this special edition broadcast from the Houston Museum of Natural Science. Today we had the pleasure of visiting with two great guests.
First, we had Nicole Temple, Vice President of Youth Education, to hear about Earth Day activities at the HMNS, as well as updates on some of their programs for the nearly 400,000 students that visit the museum annually. More information about the museum's "Celebration: Earth" program is linked here. If you're interested in supporting the great things happening at the HMNS, you might consider membership options which can be found here. Big thank you to the HMNS for hosting us today!
Second, we had our good friend Dr. Scott Tinker, Chairman of Switch Energy Alliance and Edwin Allday Endowed Chair in the Jackson School of Geosciences at the University of Texas at Austin. Scott's work is rooted in addressing major societal challenges in energy, the environment, and the economy. Today, as always, he provides a timely and thoughtful perspective on these pillars as we focus on our collective commitment to a prosperous and healthy world. Be sure to check out Switch Energy Alliance's latest film, "Switch On," which examines global energy poverty and the steps we may take to alleviate it.
We also visit with our regular COBT cast members, Colin Fenton and Matt Portillo, for some context from the home team. Our challenge for you today is to spend some time enjoying the great outdoors. Happy Earth Day to you all!
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors. Recipients should not forward this communication to a retail
This week's session was truly remarkable. We had the honor of hosting the Salk Institute Harnessing Plants Initiative team comprised of some of the brightest minds working to mitigate climate change with perhaps the most genius idea since Jonas Salk's polio vaccine: harnessing the natural power of plants to rebalance our carbon cycle.
The Harnessing Plants Initiative team includes:
- Wolfgang Busch, Ph.D.: Professor, Plant Molecular and Cellular Biology Laboratory, Hess Chair in Plant Science and Harnessing Plants Initiative Co-Director
- Joanne Chory, Ph.D.: Processor and Director, Plant Molecular and Cellular Biology Laboratory, Howard Hughes Medical Institute Investigator, Howard H. and Maryam R. Newman Chair in Plant Biology and Harnessing Plants Initiative Co-Director
- Dave Lawrence, Ph.D.: Chairman of the Advisory Council of the Harnessing Plants Initiative, Chairman of Lawrence Energy Group LLC and Trustee on the Army War College Foundation Board following an extensive career of almost 30 years with Shell
- Joe Noel, Ph.D.: Professor and Director, Jack H. Skirball Center for Chemical Biology and Proteomics, Arthur and Julie Woodrow Chair
- Tony Stiegler, Senior Director, Policy & Regulatory Affairs for the Harnessing Plants Initiative, former Partner at Colley Law Firm with an accomplished career dating to 1986 representing emerging technology companies, Fortune 500 companies and individuals
The HPI team took us through a presentation that can be found linked here. If you are as interested as we are and want to stay updated with their work, you may sign up for updates here. We can't thank the HPI team enough for their time and expertise!
Our expert TPH crew provided today's opening act: Mike Bradley gave a market update on the one-year anniversary for negative prices for NYM WTI crude oil, Matt Portillo discussed recent Canadian legislation proposing a tax credit system for CCS development as well as a bill in the US to enhance the 45Q tax credit, and Craig Webster joined to cover Equinor and Shell's recent energy transition plans. We also had some really exciting news in Houston today - Bobby Tudor joined to discuss Exxon Mobil's proposal to build the largest CCUS project in the world in Houston's very own ship channel, an effort supported by the Greater Houston Partnership to position Houston as a leader in the energy transition. Finally, Colin Fenton shared a few slides on crude oil and CO2 emissions to prepare us for the discussion.
We hope you find this session as inspiring and thought-provoking as we do. Imagine the possibilities if human ingenuity helped Nature be just two percent more efficient!
Thanks again to the HPI team and thanks to you all!
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not r
Welcome to another week of COBT! For today's session, we took a trip offshore to visit with Erik Milito, President of the National Ocean Industries Association (NOIA).
NOIA's mission is to advance and promote the interests of the offshore energy industry including both traditional and renewable energy resources. We had a great conversation all about the NOIA organization itself, life in Washington, D.C., the importance of the Gulf of Mexico, and the energy transition.
It was a pleasure to speak with Erik and hear about NOIA's efforts and impact. Erik's presentation can be found attached here. We hope you enjoy the conversation as much as we did!
Our expert TPH crew kicked things off: Mike Bradley gave an earnings preview and noted the current holding pattern in the market and Matt Portillo gave a natural gas macro update and an earnings outlook for the new energy sector. Craig Webster made a guest appearance to explain the recent SEC risk alert on ESG funds and finally Colin Fenton shared a few slides analyzing inflation rates for the ICE EUA CO2 Emissions Price, the California LCFS Credit Market, and Bitcoin.
Thank you Erik for a great discussion and thanks to you all!
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors. Recipients should not forward this communication to a retail investor.
We have cooked up a special weekend edition for you... featuring two areas of focus for us this week at TPH. Hopefully wherever you are it will be nice this weekend and you’ll find our discussion the perfect companion for a walk or a run. Then again, what goes better with a glass of wine than ESG and Solar inverters? :-)
Craig Webster kicked us off today. Craig leads the ESG charge at TPH and joined to discuss O&G emissions data that he has been studying for the past few months. There are promising trends in what we are doing as an industry and there are some interesting areas of focus that the data draws you to. We won’t be blasting out all of Craig’s conclusions... this is data that needs an interpreter. But as you will hear, Craig is available to you all as you want to learn more.
After Craig cleared the air on emissions, the sun came out as George O'Leary and Taylor Zurcher joined from the TPH Research team to walk us through this week's “Midas Touch” Solar Research report. The piece has been well received and lays out the solar “macro” in a fashion similar to our team’s recent reports on wind, electric vehicles, and hydrogen. Wear your sunblock (or maybe not!) and listen in as we all try to get smarter on solar.
If you’re interested in learning more about either of these reports, you are always welcome to reach out to me or your friendly TPH representative.
Thanks to all of your for your friendship. Have a great weekend and let us know what you think!
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors. Recipients should not forward this communication to a retail investor.
We had a super-unique and stimulating session today all about interactions between the energy industry, the media, public opinion and energy policy. We were lucky to be joined by two experts in the field: Jim Krane, Ph.D., Author and Wallace S. Wilson Fellow for Energy Studies at Rice University's Baker Institute and Chris Tomlinson, Author and Business Columnist for the Houston Chronicle.
With Jim and Chris's backgrounds, we were able to cover several topics including journalism, energy in the classroom, climate change, Jim and Chris's time spent in the Middle East and the ethical trade-offs in energy and the environment to name a few. It was a far reaching and lively discussion. As you will hear, we didn't always agree and we touched on some hard topics... but in the spirit of what we are trying to do at COBT, we found two great friends today and we learned from them. Thank you Jim and Chris!
As always, the TPH crew kicked off with today's scoop: Mike Bradley discussed the DAPL decision deadline coming up this Friday as well as recent talks to revive the Iran Nuclear Deal. Matt Portillo shared a few updates from the TPH Research team including a review of the recent Virtual Battery Workshop held last week, their recent Solar Forecast Report and the rise of interest in Carbon Capture technologies. Colin Fenton prepared a few slides covering an update on producer's hedging strategies and COVID-19 data on vaccinations and the possibility for herd immunity in the near future.
Thank you, as always, for watching! We hope you enjoy.
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors. Recipients should not forward this communication to a retail investo
You never know who you might meet on the ski chairlift! As you'll hear, today we had the pleasure of hosting Terry Anderson, a great friend, author and scholar. Terry is the John and Jean De Nault Senior Fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution and is the author or editor of nearly 40 books. Terry is also a Bozeman Montana "FOL" - friend of Lance.
Lance as in Lance Gilliland, Managing Director and Co-Head of Energy M&A at TPH. Together, we all had a great discussion around Terry's most recent book, "Adapt and Be Adept: Market Responses to Climate Change." We touched on everything from free speech at our universities to what works and what doesn't when it comes to combating climate change. We spent a fair amount of time on the underlying concept of cost-benefit... something Washington policy makers seem to be forgetting a little more each day.
Our TPH crew launched today's conversation: crude oil, OPEC, and what happens next was the main topic as Mike Bradley discussed current market sentiment, and "doing more with less" was Matt Portillo's theme as he discussed some of TPH Research's recent analysis of "maintenance versus growth" in US shale over the next few years.
As always, thank you for joining! We hope you enjoy!
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors. Recipients should not forward this communication to a retail investor.
We have all heard countries, states, cities and companies announce their plans to be somewhat or fully carbon neutral by 2030 or 2035 or 2050 or 2060... but the question remains, how are they... and how are we... going to really do that? For a Special Edition COBT this week, we were thrilled to visit with a great friend, Corby Robertson, to learn about the Carbon Neutral Coalition that is tackling this all important question. Surely significant carbon capture will play a meaningful role. We all know, however, that it won't happen in the scale we need unless we get the economic and market and legal structures right.
The Carbon Neutral Coalition's mission is for the State of Texas to become carbon neutral by 2050 and maintain a robust economy that provides a good standard of living and affordable energy, products, and services. To do so, they are bringing together energy companies, environmentalists, politicians and regulators. As Corby points out, by working together with all these groups, the oil and gas industry could lead us to become a carbon neutral world. Be prepared for a great and detailed walkthrough from Corby. We loved it!
As you will hear, Corby also references a National Petroleum CCUS report. The NPC Petroleum report is linked here. You may find more information on the Carbon Neutral Coalition and their full list of recommendations linked here as well.
Thanks again, Corby, for a great discussion and many thanks to you all too! Have a great weekend!
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors. Recipients should not forward this communication to a retail investor.
Today was really fun! We got the chance to spend an hour with Brian Sullivan, host of CNBC's "Worldwide Exchange" and a great friend of the firm. Brian has over 20 years of financial journalism and television experience, including serving as an anchor at Fox Business News as well as a producer, reporter and anchor for Bloomberg Television. He is also a Senior National Correspondent for the network.
Brian has been sitting in one of the most interesting chairs in the world over the last year. The stock market swings, the money flows, the Covid-induced effects on people and business, the election... you name it, he saw it up close and personal. It was great to catch up and reflect over all that has occurred in the past year.
As always, our TPH crew kicked off the session: Mike Bradley touched on what was said on this week's Saudi Aramco earnings call and Matt Portillo discussed current and projected drilling and fracking activity levels for 2021. Colin Fenton discussed last week's Oil Market Update Webinar hosted by Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy.
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors. Recipients should not forward this communication to a retail investor.
This week the TPH Research Team came out with a "macro" hydrogen piece. Entitled "Jack of All Trades or a Master of None?" the report stares into the future and examines the prospects for all colors of hydrogen. Today we had a walkthrough with our team to learn more.
In today's Special Edition, you'll hear Matt Portillo and Jordan McNiven provide some of the highlights and answer a few of our questions. If you are interested in the full report, please reach out to your TPH representative to learn more.
Since we had Mike Bradley today too, you'll hear we also asked him to comment on yesterday's red screen and one that was pretty green today.
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors. Recipients should not forward this communication to a retail investor.
With baseball opening day right around the corner (April 1), we've dubbed today an "energy doubleheader!"
We started with a discussion about this year's CERAWeek conference. We were so pleased to be joined by Dr. Atul Arya, Senior Vice President and Chief Energy Strategist at IHS Markit to speak to the conference's highlights and top themes. With everything from Biden, SPACs, the Energy Transition, and the ever changing future of oil and gas on their minds, over 19,000 attendees gathered virtually for what has to have been the most fascinating CERA yet. Atul takes us behind the scenes and provides some keen insights. For additional information about the conference and summaries of panel discussions, click here.
We then segued to a presentation by TPH's subsurface technical team. We had posed this question to them - what are the five most interesting things happening in the Lower 48 today? Kirk Chatawanich (Chief Technical Officer), EJ Snikeris (Executive Director) and Erica Powell (Director) made their COBT debut to give us their views... and as you will hear, item 5 is a new energy angle on some classic oil and gas technology. Absolutely fascinating stuff.
Our TPH crew warmed up in the bullpen before we got really rolling with our guests. Mike Bradley gave a brief energy market update, Matt Portillo discussed TPH's latest report on Hydrogen (hot off the presses today!), and Colin Fenton peppered in some comments on demand and the recent crude import data from China. Chinese data always tells you something interesting!
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors. Recipients should not forward this communication to a retail investor.
Welcome to another edition of COBT! This week we were thrilled to be joined by Tisha Schuller, Founding Principal of Adamantine Energy and Author of "The Gamechanger's Playbook: How Oil & Gas Leaders Thrive in an Era of Continuous Disruption" to discuss a number of energy and environmental related topics.
Tisha's experience includes environmental consulting, company advocacy, policy, politics, and academia. You can find her podcast, "Energy Thinks," linked here. We had a fantastic discussion covering her background, her latest book, and as you will hear, how millennials will greatly influence the future of energy and energy companies. In the spirit of sharing knowledge, we challenge you to forward this video to your favorite millennial!
We kicked off the session with our panel of TPH experts: Matt Portillo and Mike Bradley provided a market update and summary of upstream valuation methods then passed it to Colin Fenton who shared ten observations on commodities as we approach the one year anniversary of the COVID-19 lockdown.
For the last few weeks, we have been asking ourselves "what do all these US energy policy decisions (especially Keystone) look like from the Canadian vantage point?" We set out to find a guest that could help us feed that curiosity. Wow did we score!
We found Alex Pourbaix, President and Chief Executive Officer of Cenovus Energy, headquartered in Calgary. Alex was great and gave us an update on how Cenovus is doing as well as their current areas of focus. We of course asked him for his Canadian perspective on a few public policy areas as well. Alex and Cenovus are true advocates for the industry and it was clear we share a lot of the same perspectives cross-border!
We kicked off the session with our usual COBT crew: Mike Bradley gave his predictions for the OPEC+ meeting taking place later this week and Matt Portillo shared a few slides from TPH Research's recent Battery Cost Update. Colin Fenton shared his observations so far from CERAWeek by IHS Markit taking place this week, noting a special emphasis on the importance of hydrocarbons! It has been a great conference so far and has us excited for the future.
I also want to add that we broadcasted today's discussion from the Petroleum Club of Houston which is celebrating their 75th Anniversary this year. Should you ever need a meeting space or lunch spot in Houston, Jeremie Millwee and her team will surely be able to help. Thank you Jeremie and PCOH for your hospitality today!
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors. Recipients should not forward this communication to a retail investor.
Today we bring you a special edition to lift your spirits and your weekend out of this world! In fact, toward Mars, where the Perseverance rover has made a spectacular landing on the red planet in pursuit of new science.
Leading our virtual mission from his post at Caltech is our good friend, John Grotzinger. John is a professor of geology and geobiology, and the division chair for Geological and Planetary Sciences, at that esteemed university. Prior to moving to Caltech in 2005, he spent 18 years as a member of the faculty at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). John is a member of the National Academy of Sciences, a recipient of NASA's Distinguished Public Service Medal, and one of three inaugural advisory board members at Halliburton Labs.
As if those credentials were not impressive enough, John is uniquely well qualified to explain Perseverance's significance. He served as chief scientist for the Mars Curiosity rover mission from 2007 to 2015. As John explains in our video, the informed risks taken during that mission, and lessons learned, enabled the Perseverance mission to push boundaries never before attempted. His explanation of the drill bit on the rover is not to be missed!
Colin and I, both space enthusiasts, could barely contain our excitement. We hope you find this conversation with a genuine 'rock and rocket' scientist as stimulating as we did!
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors. Recipients should not forward this communication to a retail investor.
We have been looking forward to today's session for awhile now! We were so pleased to be joined by Susan Waller, Executive Director of Natural Allies for Clean Energy, and Mike DuHaime, Partner with Mercury Public Affairs, to discuss their efforts to change the conversation around natural gas.
Natural Allies for Clean Energy advocates for a clean energy future that begins with affordable and reliable natural gas. Susan and Mike shared background on Natural Allies, their current projects, and how we can work together to emphasize natural gas's importance.
We kicked off the session with our usual COBT team: Mike Bradley and Matt Portillo gave a recap on earnings so far and shared macro trends for E&P companies this quarter. Colin Fenton prepped us for the discussion with a few slides on the current natural gas market.
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors. Recipients should not forward this communication to a retail investor.
First and foremost, we hope you and your loved ones are safe and warm during this winter storm that is affecting nearly 25 states. We had several topics to discuss in today's session, starting with a power (or lack of power) update and explanation of the power systems in Texas by Jordan McNiven and George O'Leary from the TPH Research team.
To expand on current conditions in the field, we were so pleased to be joined by David Adams, Senior Vice President of North America Business Transformation with Halliburton. David gave a great overview of the main roadblocks the industry is facing to continue operations in this weather.
Our other star guest of today's show is Anish Kapadia, Founder and Managing Director of AKap Energy. To make things even 'cooler,' we discussed Anish's recent detailed report on the helium market including some background on helium, it's main uses, unique properties and production. To contact Anish for his helium report, please find his details at the website linked here.
Our expert TPH crew kicked things off: Mike Bradley prepped us for what we can expect from E&P companies going into Q4 earnings tomorrow and Colin Fenton chimed in with commentary preparing us for the discussion with Anish.
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors. Recipients should not forward this communication to a retail investor.
You may already be familiar with the topic of today's show: ranked choice voting (also known as instant runoff voting). We were thrilled to be joined by two experts on the topic, Harriet Wasserstrum, Co-Founder and Chair of Ranked Choice Voting for Texas, along with Mark Jones, Ph.D., Fellow in Political Science and Chair in Latin American Studies for Rice University's Baker Institute.
Harriet walked us through a summary of how ranked choice voting works and how it is currently being used. "Ranked Choice Voting for Texas" is a nonpartisan, non-profit organization that advocates for the adoption of ranked choice voting for primary and general elections for local, state, and federal elections in Texas.
At this point you must be wondering, how does this all fit in with energy policy and the usual areas of interest for COBT? Here is how it fits in - it's a voting system that encourages more candidates, more voting, and perhaps more moderation and more centrism. What we need in energy, climate and economic development policies are more balance... more predictability... and more common sense. Perhaps Ranked Choice Voting could help us achieve those and other "moderate" goals? That's overly simplistic but please listen and see what you think. We had a great discussion!
We also had our expert TPH crew: Mike Bradley covered the delay on the DAPL hearing and Colin Fenton took us back to Sunday night's Super Bowl to discuss two automotive commercials and why they were both unique cultural moments.
Thanks to you all and see you next week!
Today's show was all about President Biden's recent executive order to "pause" oil and gas leasing on federal land. To help us discuss the scope of the order and how it's going to affect oil and gas, now and in the future, we were thrilled to be joined by two key ambassadors of the oil and gas community:
Kathleen Sgamma, President of the Western Energy Alliance
Ryan Flynn, President & CEO of the New Mexico Oil & Gas Association
Both of these organizations seek to represent oil and gas companies in New Mexico and across the West, where so much of the federal acreage is concentrated. Ryan and Kathleen shared their perspectives and left us feeling hopeful for the industry's future.
Our TPH crew, Mike Bradley, Matt Portillo, and Colin Fenton kicked things off with a market update. Jake Roberts made his COBT debut and provided an overview on federal acreage to prepare for the discussion.
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors. Recipients should not forward this communication to a retail investor.
Today we had the pleasure of hosting Robert Catell, Chairman of the Advanced Energy Research and Technology Center ("AERTC") at Stony Brook University (go Seawolves!). Bob was previously the Chairman and CEO of KeySpan Corporation, the former Brooklyn Union Gas.
The AERTC's mission is to innovate energy research, education and technology deployment with a focus on efficiency, conservation, renewable energy and nanotechnology applications for new and novel sources of energy. Our discussion begins with some background on Bob's distinguished energy and power career and continues to discuss Stony Brook and their goal to develop the new technologies necessary for the energy field going forward. We are really excited about the work Stony Brook and the AERTC are doing. Thank you Bob for letting us be students today!
Our TPH crew, Mike Bradley and Colin Fenton launched the discussion with a brief energy and commodity market update. Colin explained how data from the NYM crude oil options market reveal derivatives traders were not surprised by the new Administration's policy decisions on Keystone XL, Dakota Access, or new leases on Federal lands and are, as of this week, more concerned about passing through the midpoint of a mild winter.
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors. Recipients should not forward this communication to a retail investor.
We bring you a special weekend edition of COBT. Our focus is one of the key factors for the future of energy: electric vehicles and their place in the rapidly evolving outlook for the global automotive sector.
Earlier this week TPH Research launched coverage on this critical sector with a comprehensive 85-page report. The assessment is an incredibly detailed, thoughtful, and readable piece on the outlook for EVs across more than a dozen countries and a dozen manufacturers, with a look at the knock-on implications for global gasoline demand and power.
This work was truly the fruit of many months of data gathering and contemplation by the entire TPH Research team. We could not be prouder of their superlative effort to produce this timely and valuable analysis. To drive us through the highlights of the work, co-author Colton Bean joins Head of Research Matt Portillo as guest presenter in this video.
To get our motors revving, Colin Fenton brings us up to speed with commentary on two important developments in the week: (1) a technical breakdown in the bitcoin spot price, and (2) President Biden’s executive order to return the United States to the Paris Agreement and all its articles and clauses. Colin also provides a fact-based dashboard on raw materials content in US light-duty vehicles as well as evidence that more Americans with driver licenses are driving fewer cars. Hello Uber and the future of ride sharing!
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors. Recipients should not forward this communication to a retail investor.
Welcome to another edition of COBT! There is no shortage of news this week with the inauguration of President Elect Joe Biden and his potential plans for executive orders in early days of his administration. We were pleased to be joined by Gregory Wrightstone, Executive Director at CO2 Coalition and Author of "Inconvenient Facts" to discuss a number of climate related topics.
Another big topic is the possible Keystone XL Pipeline permit cancellation. Matt Taylor, Director of Research from TPH's Calgary office joined COBT for the first time this week to share reactions to the potential cancellation and its implications for Canada.
And of course, we had the regular TPH crew: Mike Bradley and Colin Fenton jumped in to cover oil markets, a discussion on whether E&P companies can issue equity, US imports from Saudi Arabia, and US exports of crude oil and propane.
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors. Recipients should not forward this communication to a retail investor.
We were delighted to visit with Jeffrey Harris, Founder of Global Reserve Group for this week's COBT session. Jeffrey is a fantastic guest, friend, and energy leader. As you all know, our goal is to host an open and intellectually honest conversation - Jeffrey was a fantastic contributor to that effort.
Our TPH crew launched today's conversation: Mike Bradley provided a market update, Matt Portillo gave an update on TPH Research's gas upgrades and passed it to Jordan McNiven to cover TPH Research's latest LNG report from this morning. Colin Fenton's interesting tidbit of the week includes corn, wheat, and soybean prices!
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC, Perella Weinberg Partners LP, and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors. Recipients should not forward this communication to a retail investor.
We are pleased to bring you this "Special Edition" discussion with Bob Harvey, President and CEO of the Greater Houston Partnership ("GHP"). Joining Bob in today's discussion is TPH's own Bobby Tudor, who is also proudly GHP's Chairman.
GHP is a unique pro-business, pro-community, All-Houston organization. Bob has been its leader for 8 years now and has seen energy ups and downs, Hurricane Harvey, and now COVID-19, just to name a few. With COVID-19 cases rising, but also with vaccinations rising, we thought this was a great time to get a check in on the health of the city from two people who know it really well.
Bobby has led the energy transition discussion at the GHP, something his position as a community leader and original TPH founder has helped him do. As we talked to Bob, Bobby added his perspective as a business leader, energy professional, and proud Houstonian.
Bob takes us on an incredible tour of what's happening in America's 4th largest city. As it's not just our home but also our industry's capital, we thought you would all be interested.
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC., Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC and their affiliates worldwide.
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For our first session of 2021, we were thrilled to welcome back an esteemed guest and great friend, Robert Bryce. Robert's experience includes being an acclaimed author, moviemaker, speaker, columnist, and much more.
Today's focus was all about Saudi Arabia and Georgia. We also took a look back at 2020 and ended with our favorite energy moments of the year.
Our TPH crew kicked off the discussion: Mike Bradley covered Saudi Arabia's production news and Matt Portillo discussed energy stock valuations and TPH Research's themes for 2021. Colin Fenton prepared us for our discussion with Robert with a few slides on Georgia, fundamentals, inflation, and bitcoin.
Copyright 2021, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC., Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC and their affiliates worldwide.
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In a year that witnessed the price of oil diving from $65 to below –$40 per barrel, we have also seen the price of bitcoin advance from $3,915 in March to a new all-time high above $28,365 this week. A host of extraordinary factors contributed to these outcomes. Our sense is the value drivers in digital assets remain far more mysterious for most observers.
To help unpack what is going on in bitcoin and why, we are fortunate this week to be able to draw on the expertise of Daniel Masters. Danny is the Executive Chairman of CoinShares, a pioneering firm in digital asset management. CoinShares launched the world’s first regulated bitcoin investment fund in 2014, offered the world’s first bitcoin-based securities on a regulated exchange in 2015, and regularly publishes white papers on the digital asset ecosystem to help educate the public.
In this fascinating conversation, Danny explains why digital assets are better thought of as networks and utilities, rather than as mere ‘digital gold’. He elaborates on how these tools are presently achieving a new level of maturity and what that evolution holds for the future of payment systems and physical logistics worldwide.
Mr. Masters is no stranger to the land of commodities. Earlier in his career, Danny traded oil for Shell and Solomon Brothers and served as Global Head of Energy Trading at Morgan Guaranty Trust Company, now J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.
Colin Fenton sets the table with some charts that situate bitcoin’s valuation relative to technical signals and the trillions of dollars in new debt that have been deployed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Thank you for watching this video, COBT’s final offering for 2020. As this challenging and historic year draws to a close, we wish everyone across the world a happy and healthy 2021!
Copyright 2020, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC., Tudor Pickering Holt & Co Advisors LP, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC and their affiliates worldwide.
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We had the exciting opportunity to visit with Ryan Clancy to discuss the $900 billion COVID relief bill passed by the US Congress on Monday. Ryan is the Chief Strategist at No Labels, an organization at the spearhead of a non-partisan movement "to find common sense solutions to our toughest problems." No Labels and its liberal, moderate, and conservative partners in Congress played an instrumental part in breaking the logjam to deliver this long-needed relief. In the course of the conversation, Ryan highlights some of the issues around infrastructure and energy in particular that you won’t want to miss.
You can read about how the No Labels caucus worked together to get the bill over the goal line in this New York Times article: "A Dinner, A Deal, and Moonshine: How the Stimulus Bill Came Together."
As always, the TPH crew launched the discussion with observations on the week in global markets: Mike Bradley flagged emerging headwinds in oil prices as liquidity dries up for the holidays, Matt Portillo explained why TPH Research is getting more constructive on natural gas, and Colin Fenton noted the energy components in the broader $1.4 trillion 2021 Appropriations Bill to set the scene for the discussion with Ryan.
Thank you for joining us for another episode. And here's to wishing you a Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays from your friends at TPH!
Copyright 2020, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC., Tudor Pickering Holt & Co Advisors LP, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC and their affiliates worldwide.
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Last week, an oilfield services company tried to buy logo apparel for all its employees. This was to be a holiday gift after a traumatic year. But the apparel’s manufacturer refused the order. We are told the apparel company did not want to “co-brand” with an oil and gas firm despite the fact most, if not all, of its own products are produced from hydrocarbon feedstocks sourced from the oil and gas industry.
Similar incidents are becoming all too frequent. They reveal how far our society has drifted away from a thoughtful and honest discussion about energy, the environment, and the economy. I think Scott Tinker refers to that intersection as the 3E’s.
In this instance, the ‘offending’ company is Innovex. We were lucky to have its CEO, Adam Anderson, join us to talk about his experience. He explains why he decided to share his story through social media, where it received far more attention than he anticipated!
The world seems to have a very straightforward choice to make: acknowledge the full scope of the benefits hydrocarbons provide to all our lives and include oil and gas in the planning and process of making the world a better place, or exclude the industry, continue to perpetuate the myth it alone is to blame for the world’s environmental challenges, and learn the hard way what its absence would truly cost. This was a fun and different interview, and we are so thankful Adam joined us.
At COBT, we are resolved to help the public better understand the opportunities and choices that interlink us so that we can all make more informed decisions on how to support each other with respect and gratitude.
Copyright 2020, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC., Tudor Pickering Holt & Co Advisors LP, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC and their affiliates worldwide.
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We were thrilled to host this week's session with Dr. Kenneth Pollack, Resident Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI). Dr. Pollack has an incredibly impressive background on Middle Eastern and National Security Policy. His experience includes a tour of duty at the CIA, serving twice at the National Security Council, working for the Joint Chiefs, and writing 10 books on the Middle East. Talking with Dr. Pollack was not only unbelievably engaging but just honestly fun. His candor, good nature, and intuition on these very serious matters was refreshing and super informative.
Copyright 2020, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC., Tudor Pickering Holt & Co Advisors LP, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC and their affiliates worldwide.
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The oil and gas industry is facing a serious challenge and that's finding outside capital. To tackle that issue from all angles, we assembled an all-star cast from the legal and financial communities.
The conversation starts in a very unique place ... and that's with the proposed Fair Access to Capital regulations coming out of the OCC. This unique regulatory proposal is aimed at preventing larger banks from discriminating against entire industries. The Gibson Dunn team led us in a fulsome overview of the current status. From there we hit Convertible Markets, Private Capital Markets, and Public Debt Markets.
Today's top-notch team of experts included:
Christopher Abbate, Partner of Riverstone and Co-Head of Riverstone Credit Partners
Kevin Lockhart, Partner, Capital Market Advisory, Perella Weinberg Partners
Arthur Long, Partner and Co-Chair of the Financial Institutions Practice Group, Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher
Shalla Prichard, Partner, Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher
Jason Wood: Founder & CEO, J. Wood Capital Advisors
As you will hear, Mike Bradley and Colin Fenton launched today's conversation by framing up the boundaries of today's markets. Towards the end, TPH's Craig Webster joined in with some recent Department of Labor proposals that could impact ESG funds. There wasn't enough time to unpack it all today but we certainly covered a lot of ground.
Many thanks to you all for your friendship. We sure hope you enjoy!
Copyright 2020, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC., Tudor Pickering Holt & Co Advisors LP, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC and their affiliates worldwide.
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Somewhere between a new Administration, the lead Iranian nuclear scientist being killed, and an ongoing OPEC meeting, we were hungry this week for Middle Eastern and Washington insights. We were so lucky as we found our good friend Ambassador Edward Djerejian of Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy to help us sift through the issue.
Ambassador Djerejian served 8 presidents from John F. Kennedy to Bill Clinton during his career in the U.S. Foreign Service. He was also a former ambassador to Israel and Syria, stationed in the USSR during the Cold War and previously chaired the Advisory Group on Public Diplomacy in the Arab and Muslim World. We touched on everything from the Arab Spring, the Iranian Nuclear deal, the Russians, the Chinese, why Syria matters more than you think, and a whole range of issues in between. The chessboard that the new Administration faces drove much of the conversation. In our discussion, we were of course listening carefully for clues on which way oil could be headed.
We kicked off the discussion with our usual COBT Team: Mike Bradley gave us market perspective on OPEC and oil and stock prices, Matt Portillo provided the latest natural gas macro outlook from the TPH Research Team, and Colin Fenton gave an OPEC production and production quota pregame ahead of the Ambassador Djerejian discussion.
We also had a special appearance from Deanna Zhang, a Director on our TPH Energy Tech team to preview our fourth Energy Disruption Conference [D4: Rebellion] happening next week. The conference is a virtual 360 degree immersive format kicking off in Houston on Monday, Dec. 7th followed by Denver on Wednesday, Dec. 9th and closing out in Boston on Friday, December 11th. Please join us for D4: Rebellion. Click the link for details or locate more information below. We also want to congratulate Deanna today on being named a Forbes' "30 Under 30" up and comer in Energy. Way to go Deanna! We are so very proud of you!
So we had a lot happening today. We are sure you will enjoy it all. The Ambassador was fantastic.
Copyright 2020, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC., Tudor Pickering Holt & Co Advisors LP, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC and their affiliates worldwide.
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First and foremost, HAPPY THANKSGIVING! 2020 has presented many challenges that remind us all how much we have to be truly thankful for.
To celebrate and say thanks (and provide you a special Thanksgiving Day COBT surprise), we found energy folks working in the fields and facilities today -- on Thanksgiving! -- who could take a minute and tell the rest of us a little bit about their job. We hit the jackpot!
We made some great new friends:
Chad Bachmeier | Continental Resources - Tioga, North Dakota
Nick Newland | Diamondback Energy - Pecos, Texas
Steve Lane | Liberty Oilfield Services - South Texas
Ted Kenny | Phillips 66 - Linden, New Jersey
Jeremy Carver | Plains All American Pipeline - Midland, Texas
Without the dedication and sacrifice of men and women like these, we couldn't have the Thanksgiving celebrations we all love. We hope you enjoy this “energy in action” show as much as we did.
From your friends at TPH - we hope you have a wonderful Thanksgiving!
Copyright 2020, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC., Tudor Pickering Holt & Co Advisors LP, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC and their affiliates worldwide.
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This week is all about being thankful and on that note, we were especially thankful to visit with our good friend Ken Hersh. Ken is the President and CEO of the George W. Bush Presidential Center located in Dallas, Texas. He was also the CEO of NGP from 1988 to 2015. We couldn't think of a better person to help us mix policy, energy and life into a Thanksgiving casserole than Ken.
As you may or may not already know, the Bush Presidential Center works to support a variety of important domestic initiatives including economic growth, military service, education reform, global health, and women's empowerment to name a few. Ken draws on his Bush Center experience and his almost three decades working in energy to talk about everything from the energy transition, to the grace and dignity of the Bush Family, and finally to his optimistic outlook for the future.
Our TPH crew kicked things off: Mike Bradley and Matt Portillo covered oil market performance and expectations. Colin Fenton had a potpourri of data points covering everything from global market data to potato chip market trends. It was an exceptional lead-in to an exceptional guest.
Copyright 2020, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC., Tudor Pickering Holt & Co Advisors LP, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC and their affiliates worldwide.
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We were thrilled to have the opportunity to visit with Giorgio Bresciani and his colleague Dickon Pinner, both Senior Partners at McKinsey & Company. Giorgio, based in London, is McKinsey's leader of their Global Oil & Gas practice and Dickon leads McKinsey's Global Sustainability Practice from San Francisco. We had a robust discussion of the energy transition and in particular the role oil and gas and the capital markets may both play as it all unfolds. To kick things off, Mike Bradley gave an energy trading market and sentiment update and Colin Fenton prepped us for the McKinsey discussion with a presentation on recent COVID data, the vaccine news, and the implications for energy demand.
Copyright 2020, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC., Tudor Pickering Holt & Co Advisors LP, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC and their affiliates worldwide.
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With the election behind us and the transition of a new administration on the horizon, we decided to call on two great friends of the firm and previous COBT guests for a COBT "Special Edition." We were thrilled to have the opportunity to visit with two great ambassadors of the oil & gas community: Leslie Beyer, President of PESA (the Petroleum Equipment and Services Association), and Anne Bradbury, CEO of AXPC (the American Exploration & Production Council).
Both Leslie and Anne gave us their thoughts on the "Biden Effect" and let us ask their views on some of the burning questions we are all asking.
Mike Bradley launched the conversation with market sentiment and passed it to Colin Fenton to give a fantastic overview/analysis of President-Elect Joe Biden's previously announced plans for the Energy Sector.
Copyright 2020, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC., Tudor Pickering Holt & Co Advisors LP, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC and their affiliates worldwide.
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Today's guest has honored TPH with a handful of visits over the years, but today's discussion was a special treat. Walter Isaacson, renowned author, Professor of History at Tulane University, and Distinguished Fellow at The Aspen Institute joined us for this week's "vaccine and Biden focused" COBT session.
With no time to waste, we jumped right into the discussion which covered Walter's participation in the Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine trial, his latest book, and his thoughts on how the energy industry and Washington overall may be affected by President-Elect Joe Biden's administration. No matter how you voted, Walter makes the case on a number of fronts for being optimistic about what lies ahead.
Walter's referenced article in The Washington Post regarding the Pfizer vaccine can be found here. In the article, Walter explains the otherwise really complicated business of manufacturing vaccines in easy to understand ways. There is no doubt the public private partnership that has had early vaccine success is something of which we can all be proud.
Thanks for watching (as always) and stay tuned for a special COBT edition later this week!
Copyright 2020, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC., Tudor Pickering Holt & Co Advisors LP, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC and their affiliates worldwide.
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Last week the markets were rocked by the news that Europe was going back into lockdown ... at least in France, Germany and the UK. We got to thinking about the energy macro in Europe ... not just because of the lockdowns, but also because of all the talk of the energy transition that comes out of Europe. So we went hunting for two great guests in the TPH friends network.
Wow did we get lucky!
We had two great guests join us from London: Dr. Paula Franklin, Chief Medical Officer of Bupa and Elvis Pellumbi, Chief Investment Officer and Managing Partner of CF Partners. Paula sees everything happening at BUPA (the British United Provident Association) - the UK based health insurer and provider to over 33 million people globally. Elvis oversees investment in energy, commodities and infrastructure at CF Partners and has focused on renewables of late. Overall, Paula and Elvis gave us a great sense of all things Europe ... from lockdowns to markets to governments.
To kick things off, Mike Bradley gave an energy market update and Colin Fenton shared a presentation on current European COVID data and market indices to help frame the discussion.
Copyright 2020, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC., Tudor Pickering Holt & Co Advisors LP, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors.
With all the talk of fracking and energy that showed up in the Presidential debate of late, we decided to try and do a show which was "on the ground" and "based in the reality" of today's energy world.
That was a tall order but we called on the TPH friend network and found people "that know." We thought New Mexico - as the third largest oil producing state but also one with lots of federal acreage - was the right place to sort this out this week. As you will see, we had two Mayors, one County Manager, and the Minority Leader of the State House all join us. This was not about Republicans and Democrats. It was about jobs and economic development.
We assembled an all-star discussion group:
Mayor Sam Cobb, Mayor of Hobbs, New Mexico
Allen Davis, Eddy County Manager
Mayor Dale Janway, Mayor of Carlsbad, New Mexico
Representative Jim Townsend, New Mexico State District 54
We had a lotta fun and learned a lot talking to these grisly New Mexico veterans. We hope you enjoy it as much as we did!
Copyright 2020, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC., Tudor Pickering Holt & Co Advisors LP, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors.
Today's show is brought to you live from the Ronnie K. Irani Center for Energy Solutions at the University of Oklahoma! This week we are thrilled to be joined by Michael Cohen, Chief US Economist and Head of Oil Analysis at BP.
The discussion centered around Michael's presentation, "Energy Outlook 2020 Edition."
As always, the TPH crew covered a few topics to kick things off: Mike Bradley discussed Q3 earnings, Matt Portillo gave a TPH research update, and Colin Fenton set the scene for the discussion with Michael.
Big thanks to the Ronnie K. Irani Center for Energy Solutions for the warm welcome.
Copyright 2020, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC., Tudor Pickering Holt & Co Advisors LP, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors.
We say this often, but today was AWESOME! Last week set a new high bar with many of you as the feedback on Dr. Naomi Boness at Stanford was fantastic. We had our work cut out for us to keep it up this week! The great news is we were lucky enough to find four leading minds to attack a nagging question - how are we physically, financially, environmentally-friendly and otherwise going to mine all the minerals and metals needed for the currently projected growth in ev's, renewables, batteries and the like? It won't be easy (is it really possible?) - there are a ton of questions to be answered.
We had an ALL-STAR team help us attack the questions, including:
Dr. Roderick Eggert, Foundation Chair in Mineral Economics at the Colorado School of Mines
Frank Fannon, Assistant Secretary for the Bureau of Energy Resources at the U.S. Department of State, joining from Washington
Julian Kettle, Vice Chairman, Metals & Mining at Wood Mackenzie
Mark Mills, Senior Fellow at the Manhattan Institute and Strategic Partner of Cottonwood Venture Partners
With a lot to cover, the TPH crew gave a brief update to begin the session. Mike Bradley touched on crude oil market sentiments then handed it off to Matt Portillo and Matthew Blair to discuss TPH Research's new coverage on Darling Ingredients (DAR). Colin Fenton saved his energy for the dynamic discussion!
Thank you for your friendship and see you next week!
Copyright 2020, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC., Tudor Pickering Holt & Co Advisors LP, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors.
Today we had the pleasure of hosting Dr. Naomi Boness, Managing Director of the Stanford Natural Gas Initiative. The Natural Gas Initiative ("NGI") partners with research groups and industry partners to "generate the knowledge needed to use natural gas to its greatest social, economic, and environmental benefit." We had a fantastic conversation about a broad range of issues as well as the opportunities for natural gas to play a huge role in solving so many of the world's problems. Stanford's NGI is doing amazing work about which we can all be really excited.
As you will see in the video, Naomi walked us through a great presentation that provided the basis for our roundtable discussion. We learned a ton!
Our TPH crew, Mike Bradley, Matt Portillo, and Colin Fenton kicked off the session. Mike hit crude oil and other market sentiments, Matt walked us through a few slides covering California's approach to electric vehicles, and Colin covered China's newly announced plan for net-zero emissions by 2060.
We hope you enjoy! Thanks to all of you from all of us at TPH!
Copyright 2020, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC., Tudor Pickering Holt & Co Advisors LP, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors.
As we previewed in the midday note yesterday, COBT this week featured a robust conversation of the policies and the politics of energy. It was our way of preparing for last night’s first Presidential Debate. Our discussion covered a lot of ground and was particularly focused on the election’s implications for oil and gas. Thank you for all of the suggested questions and topics!
With so much to cover, we dove right in (no pregame this week on the markets) with guests Bob McNally, President of Rapidan Energy Group, Glenn Schwartz, Director, Energy Policy Service of Rapidan Energy Group, and Charlie Gerow, CEO of Quantum Communications. Speculating on what MIGHT come out of Washington DC is a difficult chore but the Rapidan team laid out a number of thought-provoking scenarios. Charlie Gerow is an expert in all things “Pennsylvania energy” and gave some real life color as to how the energy/election debate is shaping up on the ground there. A big thank you to these three gentlemen for joining us and tackling some tough issues.
Our TPH regulars, Matt Portillo, Colin Fenton, and Mike Bradley also helped frame the discussion with questions and observations throughout the session. As always, many thanks to them too. At one point Colin references “existential millenarianism.” We had to pause on it too but it’s the belief (sometimes fantasy) that “all things will be changed.” Tune in and see what he means.
Energy politics isn’t an easy topic but energy policy is obviously really important. We hope today’s discussion adds some new dimensions to the debate for you.
Copyright 2020, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC., Tudor Pickering Holt & Co Advisors LP, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors.
Today we focused the show on the front lines of emerging energy technology.
We were thrilled to be joined by Scott Gale, Executive Director of Halliburton Labs. Halliburton recently launched Halliburton Labs to provide early stage companies resources to help advance efforts towards cleaner and more affordable energy. A blend of incubation and acceleration, Halliburton Labs is like pulling into the "pits" for emerging tech company "race cars." Scott was joined by TPH's Deanna Zhang with both of them broadcasting live from the Halliburton Labs facility.
We were also joined by Mike Bengtson, Chair of the firmwide Corporate Practice at Baker Botts, and his colleague Michael Torosian, Partner in the Corporate Practice and Co-lead of the Emerging Companies/Venture Capital practice. Baker Botts began a push in the 1990s to grow their tech practice and today has a technology effort that is as large as its longstanding and venerable energy practice. Mike joined from Houston today and Michael joined us from San Francisco. Their comments focused on the money available to tech start-ups. Deanna joined in that discussion as well.
Today's conversation kicks off with the usual TPH band: Mike Bradley, Matt Portillo, and Colin Fenton giving us a great backdrop of what's happening in the energy markets. Bradley hit oil and gas with some Libyan flavor, Matt does a global sample of electric vehicles and Colin hit a broad range of unique global stats. We all learned the water depth of the Rhine River can tell you quite a lot. Yes..... you read that right!
Thanks for watching as always. All the best from all of us at TPH!
Copyright 2020, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC., Tudor Pickering Holt & Co Advisors LP, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors.
Today we have not one but two exciting things for you. First, we did our first "on the road" show, filming from Oceaneering's ROV center North of Houston. Second, we had the real honor of hosting Leslie Beyer, the President of PESA.
PESA... the Petroleum Equipment and Services Association, is a stunning organization. It does things you would never guess (training State Department professionals that serve in oil and gas countries), is way out-front on issues you might not have expected (technology, ESG, diversity and inclusion), is expanding into new areas (via the energy transition), and is remarkably close to what's happening and what's not happening in Washington (Leslie and her team can tell you every energy-related job in every congressional district in the country). We had a great visit as Leslie's energy and determination were contagious!
Our squad leads off with a discussion of the three C's: Crude, Colorado, and California.
At the end, you'll see we also added some live shots of what's happening at Oceaneering. Special thanks to Rod Larson, Bill Mallin, and Michael Rowand for hosting our first "on the road" session.
Copyright 2020, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC., Tudor Pickering Holt & Co Advisors LP, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors.
Today on COBT we decided to tackle something that was way too big to handle... but we did it anyway. The topic was "India" and luckily we had some fantastic help in thinking through what’s playing out in what will soon be the world’s most populous country.
Our esteemed panel of experts on “all things India” included Gauri Jauhar, Executive Director of Energy Transition & CleanTech Consulting at IHS Markit, Mohit Safar, Senior Partner at L&L Partners based in India, Rajiv Gupta, a Partner and Head of the India Practice at Latham &Watkins along with David Blumental, also a Partner at Latham & Watkins who leads the firm’s Energy Practice in Asia.
Copyright 2020, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC., Tudor Pickering Holt & Co Advisors LP, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors.
We have an OFS action-packed day for you today! We were thrilled to host two OFS stars: David Bat, President of Kimberlite Oilfield Research, and John Daniel, Founder and President of Daniel Energy Partners. These two guys both have their own firms, their own views, and lots of experience to boot. We had a great time talking about the trends, the sentiment, and the future.
Copyright 2020, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. served as financial advisor to Liberty Oilfield Services on the transaction mentioned in this publication. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC., Tudor Pickering Holt & Co Advisors LP, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors. Recipients should not forward this communication to a retail investor.
We were thrilled to have the opportunity to visit with Bjorn Lomborg, President of the Copenhagen Consensus Center, to discuss his latest book, "False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Cost Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet."
The TPH team kicked off the session: Mike Bradley discussed the Exxon/Dow news as well as Hurricane Laura and its effect on crude oil prices. Lance Gilliland chimed in to give an M&A market update and Colin Fenton hit California power prices.
Copyright 2020, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC., Tudor Pickering Holt & Co Advisors LP, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors.
Today, our COBT session was not only stimulating but also simply great fun. We had the honor of hosting Dr. Bradford Cornell, Emeritus Professor of Finance at UCLA's Anderson Graduate School of Management. Dr. Cornell has been teaching finance for 40 years and as you will see in the video, he takes us all back to some basics in today's graduate school finance session. His presentation, entitled "ESG and Investing," can be found here.
Professor Cornell took us to the heart of ESG and from there we of course moved to the current debate around energy, the environment and capital. He has some refreshing views that had us all thinking hard about some of the current trends in capital allocation.
Craig Webster, TPH's Head of ESG, kicked the session off. The regular cast of COBT, Mike Bradley, Colin Fenton, and Matt Portillo, also chimed in to cover a range of topics, including the oil and gas outlook for 2021 and a few other comments on recent news (I won't spoil the surprise of what's in Colin's bag this week).
As always, we hope you find it interesting, informative and thought-provoking. Thank you for your friendship and see you next week!
Copyright 2020, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC., Tudor Pickering Holt & Co Advisors LP, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors.
This week at COBT was all about one thing - one really important thing - POWER. We were very fortunate this week to have Robert Bryce join us. Robert is so many things - a power expert, an author of six books, an energy journalist, and a moviemaker. Robert’s true passion is the impact of power and electricity on people’s lives across the globe. It was a fantastic discussion that could have gone for two hours if we had just gone with it. Robert was a super engaging and ultra positive and informative guest. We discussed his most recent book, "A Question of Power: Electricity and the Wealth of Nations” and also his recent documentary movie “Juice.”
The TPH crew chimed in to get our discussion going today. Mike Bradley hit highlights from the Saudi Aramco earnings call and recent strength in the energy credit markets. Matt Portillo hit the positives of the discipline coming out of recent energy earnings calls and Jordan McNiven provided a great foundation for the discussion with Robert by going through global power thoughts.
Copyright 2020, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC., Tudor Pickering Holt & Co Advisors LP, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors.
We had the great opportunity to visit with MacKenzie Davis, a Managing Partner at SailingStone. SailingStone is a well-known, highly regarded global natural resource investor based in San Francisco. The firm has recently completed some fascinating research on the changing energy world and that was the focus of our conversation.
MacKenzie walked us through a summarized version of SailingStone's whitepaper entitled "The Energy Transition: Outlook and Implications for Upstream Commodities." For a link to the complete report, please click here. Get ready... the energy transition discussion has more assumptions and variables in it than you can think through in one sitting. We loved our conversation with MacKenzie as his real world demeanor made it easy to pause, question and sometimes debate.
Matthew Murphy made his first COBT appearance to discuss the recent BP news on a new strategic course for that company. We also had Craig Webster, TPH's Head of ESG join. The regular cast of COBT, Mike Bradley, Colin Fenton, and Matt Portillo, also contributed to cover oil and crude prices, earnings season, and the future of electric vehicles. It was a content-packed day!
We have been very lucky to have had some incredible guests on our Close of Business Tuesday segments. Each week, we try and find someone who really speaks to a strong curiosity and/or need that we sense needs filling. This week we were blessed to find Admiral McRaven - the need he fulfilled is the one we all feel for an America that is pulling together to solve problems.
Admiral McRaven has tackled a lot of problems for this nation. He led missions to capture both Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein. As a four star Admiral, he commanded our special operations soldiers globally. He led the effort to craft the overarching strategy of the War on Terror in the Bush White House. He worked with President Obama to execute the daring assault that caught and killed Bin Laden. He joined a disheartened US military in the late 70s and helped the country rebuild, restore and reinvigorate the Armed Forces into one of the country's most respected institutions today. Finally, as you all probably know, he figured out somewhere along the way that if you really want to change the world, one place to start is making your bed in the morning.
As you will see in our discussion, he talks openly and frankly about leadership, the country, and the journey we are all on together. It was a fantastic discussion and most certainly satisfied the need we all felt for a good dose of what's great about America.
Copyright 2020, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC., Tudor Pickering Holt & Co Advisors LP, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors.
Pedro Palma, Director at Ecoanalítica (joining from Caracas, Venezuela), David Voght, Managing Director and Founding Partner at IPD Latin America (joining from Madrid, Spain), and Luis Pacheco, Chairman of the PDVSA Ad-Hoc Board of Directors and Nonresident Fellow at Rice University's Baker Institute (joining from Bogota, Colombia) for a Venezuela panel. Joe Amador, Managing Director at TPH and Head of our LatAm effort, made his first COBT appearance to help lead the discussion around Venezuela oil & gas as well as its current economy and social conditions. We are very thankful to have such an expert panel give us their perspectives.
We welcomed another great guest to COBT this week! Michael Shellenberger, Founder and President of Environmental Progress, joined us to discuss his new book, "APOCALYPSE NEVER." Michael is a lifelong environmentalist and wrote the book to counter the extreme arguments often made in today's climate debate. He has also been an outspoken proponent of nuclear power as a means of dealing with the effects of climate change. Michael's highly acclaimed and highly analytical book leaves you feeling hopeful about what has been and can be accomplished. We were thrilled to have him talk with us.
Copyright 2020, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC., Tudor Pickering Holt & Co Advisors LP, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors.
We have a “COBT Special Edition” for you this week! We were thrilled to have the opportunity to visit with Senator Kevin Cramer of North Dakota this morning. We had plenty to cover with the Senator given the Dakota Access Pipeline controversy and how it affects the Bakken and America's national and economic security.
Senator Cramer was very generous with his time and thoughts and we greatly enjoyed the conversation. As you will hear towards the end, we also had some great conversation around the 45Q tax provision, the Paris Accord, and how the energy debate can be made more balanced and more bipartisan. For the good of the nation and the world, we need it. We are excited to keep pushing for what our friend Scott Tinker calls the “radical middle” and we appreciate your thoughts and suggestions as we try and get there.
We want to say a big thank you to Senator Cramer on behalf of the energy community for giving us the "on the ground" view of the current environment in North Dakota.
Copyright 2020, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. The information contained in this update is based on sources considered to be reliable but is not represented to be complete and its accuracy is not guaranteed. This update is designed to provide market commentary only. This update does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing contained in this update is intended to be a recommendation of a specific security or company nor is any of the information contained herein intended to constitute an analysis of any company or security reasonably sufficient to form the basis for any investment decision. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., and its officers, directors, shareholders, employees and affiliates and members of their families may have positions in any securities mentioned and may buy or sell such securities before, after or concurrently with the publication of this update. In some instances, such investments may be inconsistent with the views expressed herein. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. may, from time to time, perform or solicit investment banking or other services for or from a company, person or entities mentioned in this update. Additional important disclosures, including disclosures regarding companies covered by TPH’s research department, may be found at www.tphco.com/Disclosure. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) is the global brand name for Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC., Tudor Pickering Holt & Co Advisors LP, Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities – Canada, ULC and their affiliates worldwide.
Institutional Communication Only. Under FINRA Rule 2210, this communication is deemed institutional sales material and it is not meant for distribution to retail investors.
Today we had the honor of hosting a great friend of the firm and a great friend of the industry, Congressman Bill Flores (R-TX, 17th District). It was a real pleasure to hear from Bill as he shared his perspective on some of the current challenges policymakers are facing, what he hopes might get done in the next Congressional session, and what good things he believes are happening that we aren't talking about enough. As always, Bill is direct and practical in his comments.
Colton Bean, Director of Midstream Research for TPH, made his first COBT appearance. Colton provides his thoughts on both the Dakota Pipeline news, the recent Dominion transaction with Warren Buffett, and infrastructure broadly.
Mike Bradley, Colin Fenton, and Matt Portillo also chimed in with their current views on oil, gas and current markets. Colin hit us up with some carefully crafted charts of the week.
This week we were thrilled to be joined by Daniel Neff, Co-Chairman of Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz, along with Paul Perea, TPH's Co-Head of M&A. Gained from over four decades of experience advising major companies, Dan shared his insightful perspective on top concerns for public company directors, managing a New York-based law firm through COVID-19 and the unique, positive aspects of deal making in the energy industry.
We kicked off the session with our panel of TPH experts: Mike Bradley, Colin Fenton, and Matt Portillo. Mike hit earnings for Q2 and what we can expect for the second half of the year. Colin and Matt shared their thoughts around the upcoming election and its implications for the industry.
Welcome to another edition of COBT! This week, we were thrilled to have the opportunity to speak with Ben Ratner, a Senior Director for the Environmental Defense Fund, a non-profit seeking to solve the world's toughest environmental issues in practical and economic ways. We were also joined this week by Craig Webster, TPH's Head of ESG.
And of course, we had the regular TPH band members: Mike Bradley, Colin Fenton, and Matt Portillo. They jump in on $40 dollar oil, a preview of earnings season, and Carbon Emissions Trading levels in the European Union and how to understand them. Our opening commentary begins with the TPH crew and then 15 minutes onward, you'll find our discussion with Ben Ratner.
Today we had the pleasure of speaking with two Energy Technology stars: Emily Reichert, CEO of Greentown Labs, and Brad Burke, Managing Director of the Rice Alliance for Technology and Entrepreneurship.
Greentown Labs has just announced that they are expanding to Houston and we couldn't be more excited for them to join in the effort to make Houston the capital of the new energy world. Headquartered outside Boston, Greentown Labs coming here is an exciting leap forward for the city. Emily was most kind to join us on GL's big day. (Press release available here).
Brad and the Rice Alliance team also have the excitement of their startup competition this week. The competition has been going for twenty years, offers the most prize money of any similar competition, and has seen almost 700 startups over these last 20 years. Successful startups coming out of Rice have gone on to raise almost $3 billion in additional capital. Brad did a great job getting us fired up for everything happening "inside the hedges" over on South Main.
We also had our expert TPH crew: Mike Bradley, Colin Fenton, and Matt Portillo. The screens were green today and our team offered up some summary commentary on latest sentiment. Lebanese protests, Japanese stimulus, LNG cargos, Chinese-Indian skirmishes, Beijing schools and promising COVID treatment news were all in there.
Our guests for this week’s “COBT” were Neal Anderson, President of Wood Mackenzie, and Randall Collum, Managing Director of Natural Gas & Upstream Analytics at Genscape. Neal Anderson brings over thirty years of experience in the energy industry to the conversation, most of them served at Wood Mackenzie, to provide depth of perspective on the macro outlook. Randall Collum’s extensive experience as an analyst for over 20 years in natural gas an oil production analytics gives context and color around the data him and his team see on a daily basis.
We also have with us our staple TPH experts: Mike Bradley, Colin Fenton, and Matt Portillo, back this week too.
Our guests for this week’s “COBT” were two very well regarded energy thought leaders:
- Shawn Reynolds, Portfolio Manager at VanEck
- Mark Viviano, Head of Public Equities at Kimmeridge Energy Management
They are great minds and great friends and we had an awesome “around the world of energy opportunities and issues” discussion with them. Thank you Shawn and Mark!
Our usual panel of TPH experts Mike Bradley, Colin Fenton, and Matt Portillo, were all back this week too. We hit OPEC+, today’s oil price, latest investor likes and dislikes, budding geopolitical risks and the latest COVID-19 data observations.