Beyond the Sound Bite: Recent Episodes
Vinny Catalano, CFA
Welcome to Blue Marble Research Advisory's media blog
Media appearances and in-depth Interviews with leading Investment Strategists, Economists, Geopolitical experts, and other key thought leaders
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Last Friday's Bloomberg radio interview with Carol Massar and Cory Johnson can be heard here.
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Recently, Financial Times reporter and market commentator, John Authers authored a market commentary on August 26th in which yours truly was among those quoted, including the following:
"Another measure that has enduring appeal, and that can turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy, is a simple gauge of the market’s momentum, which is one of the strongest forces driving the market. Vinny Catalano of New York’s Blue Marble Research suggests that a “mega-trend reversal” tool can signal whether a true bear market has started. This compares the market’s price with its recent trend (its average over the past 50 days) and its longer trend (its average over the past 200 days). When the 50-day moving average drops below the 200-day (sometimes colourfully called a “death cross”) while the price drops below both, and all are heading downwards, an upward trend has been decisively reversed."
To read the entire commentary, including a chart illustrating the Mega Trend, click here.
On September 1, I had the pleasure of appearing once again on Bloomberg radio with hosts Carol Massar and Vonnie Quinn. The appearance explored the above noted FT commentary and other related topics further. To listen, click here.
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Recent Bloomberg radio appearances: Briefly discussing equity market outlook and then describing Adriatic Capital Partners and private equity venture: April 28.
With Lawrence Calcano of iCapital Network exploring their on-line private equity service: April 28.
And my recap of the CFA society and other events that I participated in from December 2014 through mid February 2015: February 27.
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To view the original commentary and read the related text, click here.
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Just me with Carol Massar and Michael McKee Bloomberg radio "Taking Stock".
Me with Dr. Rob Atkinson Bloomberg radio "Taking Stock".
Bloomberg radio "Taking Stock with Pimm Fox and Carol Massar".
Bloomberg radio "Taking Stock with Pimm Fox and Carol Massar".
Bloomberg radio "Taking Stock with Pimm Fox and Carol Massar".
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NYSSA has begun a new videos series that I have the privilege of being the interviewer. The first interview was with Nicholas Colas, Managing Director and Chief Market Strategist with ConvergEx Group. The topic of discussion was Bitcoin and his upcoming March 5 presentation at NYSSA. While there is work to be done re the production values for the series, I believe the content will be viewed as time spent.
You can check out the interview here.
Note: The interview took place on February 19th. Future interviews will be posted as they are made available.
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Media Appearances
Recently, I had the privilege of appearing on two excellent radio programs: Bloomberg radio's popular program, "Taking Stock with Pimm Fox and Carol Massar" and "On The Money" with Steve Pomeranz, CFP, and an Internet based video interview - FT.com's Authers' Note (see previous posting below). The interviews centered on what you might think they would: the markets and the economy, with a sprinkling of geo politics and market structure issues.
Here are the links to each of them:
With yours truly
With Don Rissmiller (Chief Economist, Strategas Research Partners)
With yours truly, again
Upcoming Events*
My early 2014 events calendar is, as you will note below, fairly full. Most of the events are Market Forecast ones. If you are in the neighborhood, you may want to consider attending. Here are the events (links provided where available):
January 9 - New York Society of Security Analysts featuring Rich Bernstein, Liz Ann Sonders, Phil Orlando, CFA, Sam Stovall, Dan Clifton, Joe Kalish with special interviewer Pimm Fox and a special presentation from Matt Orsagh, CFA
January 15 - CFA Society South Florida (Boca Raton) featuring Ed Clissold, CFA, Glenn Reynolds, CFA
January 16 - CFA Society Louisiana (New Orleans) featuring Don Rissmiller, Glenn Reynolds, CFA
January 26 - 29 - Inside ETFs conference(Hollywood, FL) My segment is Tuesday, January 28 @ 4 PM eastern.
February 4 - CFA Society Phoenix featuring Heidi Richardson, Jeffrey Sherman, Shane Shepherd
February 5 - CFA Society Tucson featuring Don Rissmiller, Peter J. Petas, Jeffrey Sherman
February 11 - CFA Society Tampa Bay featuring Jeffrey Saut, Glenn Reynolds, CFA, Tom Tzitzouris
February 13 - CFA Society Jacksonville featuring Glenn Reynolds, CFA, Tom Tzitzouris
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Note: The Robert Shiller chart illustrated in the interview was mistaken by me for another chart. The Shiller chart clearly shows a US stock market quite close to earning bubble status.
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My July 3rd appearance on Bloomberg radio's popular program, "Taking Stock with Pimm Fox and Carol Massar" was actually three segments: * One with yours truly One with Ian Bremmer and One with Adam Sussman**The discussions ranged from general economic and market matters (me) to geo political issues (Bremmer) to the changed market structure (Sussman). Each segment runs about 7 to 8 minutes in length.
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No podcast and media posting at this time. Will return shortly.
For current commentary and media related items, click here!
To learn about the research advisory services available via Blue Marble Research, click here!
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Here are my three most recent media appearances from Friday - Bloomberg radio (Taking Stock with Pimm Fox) and BNN TV (Canadian Business News Network) - and yesterday - foxbusiness.com (with Tracy Byrnes). The topics of discussion include the impact that rising gas prices are likely to have on consumers; impressions from the early 2012 events; and a very useful technical analysis tool for timing the more important intermediate term trend of the equity markets.
Watch the latest video at video.foxbusiness.com
Bloomberg radio
BNN TV
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2 media appearances today - BNN TV at 2:30 and Bloomberg radio (Taking Stock with Pimm Fox) at 4 PM (both times are eastern US).
Prospective talking points:
Impressions from my 10 events over 6 weeks
Why are investors still so cautious?
What can an investor do when he/she gets it wrong?
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Following on my foxbusiness.com appearance (see post below), my most recent Taking Stock with Pimm Fox and Courtney Donohue includes concerns re the risks of the US markets marching ahead of world markets and, wearing the interviewer hat, I get to quiz fellow guest Doug Ramsey. To listen, click here
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Watch the latest video at video.foxbusiness.com
My appearance yesterday with Tracy Byrnes at Fox Business explores the January effect, the importance of seeing the full January performance and not just the first two weeks, the continued hollowing out of the US economy, and the consequences of the whopping $20B increase consumer credit.
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My most recent Taking Stock with Pimm Fox and Courtney Donohue is a year end look at the markets and economy. To listen, click here
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Watch the latest video at video.foxbusiness.com
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Watch the latest video at video.foxbusiness.com
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Okay, so I look prescient (at least for 3 days) after last Thursday's appearance on Bloomberg radio's "Talking Stock with Pimm Fox and Courtney Donohoe" some 60 S&P 500 points ago. Now what?
Today's talking head appearance affords me another opportunity to describe my emerging bear call and can be viewed at foxbusiness.com (not on cable) at 1 PM (eastern) today.
In addition to my submitted suggested talking points (below, sent yesterday), I hope to explain why
1 - Big market moves within defined trading ranges mean nothing.
2 - On its own, moves above and below the 200 day average also mean nothing.
Plus the emerging bull market in Komboloi (see accompanying image).
Suggested talking points:
Commentary: Blind Faith
- Bottom up type of investors - those that make investment decisions based primarily (many exclusively) on earnings - have helped drive stocks to current levels.
- Following their lead is a very dangerous practice for investors, as bottom up investors have an investment method that is fraught with danger.
- Last Thursday's stock market rally illustrated just how dangerous their approach to investing is: driving stocks higher on the news of the Eurozone deal without full knowledge of the deal's consequences.
- Their method - earnings matter above all else - is anchored in the belief that what's good for business is good for the economy. To believe this is to believe in laissez-faire economics, that unfettered markets work best, that government that governs least governs best.
- One would think that the recent experience (2007 - 2009) would have put this thinking to bed. But old ideas based on an ideology (dogma) die hard.
Market Assessment
- There is neither a fundamental nor a technical analysis reason to change my early bear call.
- My proprietary Mega Trend is still strongly in the bear category.
- Earnings are on the verge of a serious decline into 2012 (and beyond) as the Eurozone slips into recession.
- At best, stocks should sell at a low double digit P/E, not the current average (15 times) P/E.
Actionable Items
- Resist the siren call of the bottom up bulls. Keep a low equity exposure (50 to 60%).
- Put on mega cap, small cap hedges (long mega cap OEF, long the inverse small cap RWM).
- Be prepared to drop the equity exposure below 50% when the second wave of the bear emerges.
To view the segment live, click here.
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In addition to answering (explaining!?! defending!?!) why I believe this is a counter rally within an emerging bear market, I am hopeful that today's Bloomberg radio segment (4:30 PM easter, "Talking Stock with Pimm Fox and Courtney Donohoe") will touch on the risks inherent in the methodology that most traditionally trained bottom-up portfolio managers and strategists employ in their investment decision-making. And why it is risky to follow those who employ this approach with its faulty premises and embedded blind spots.
To listen to the segment live, click here.
