ING THINK aloud: Recent Episodes
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THINK aloud is a podcast by ING, where we try to make sense of the world in the most 'unbanky' way we can. The coronavirus pandemic has re-shaped the way we think about the economy and financial markets. Governments and central banks have made a Herculean effort to pull their countries back from the abyss, and it may just work. But the impact will be felt for decades to come.
In this podcast, ING's James Knightley and Padhraic Garvey discuss President Trump's efforts to steer monetary policy - and the economic narrative - through high-profile firings at the Federal Reserve and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The Trump administration has imposed a 15% tariff on EU pharmaceuticals and threatened even steeper levies elsewhere. At the same time, however, the government has issued ultimatums to 17 companies to cut drug costs. In this podcast, ING's Diederik Stadig explains why these competing goals cannot be reconciled, and what the strategy means for the industry - and for consumers in the US and Europe.
The US dollar's historic plunge has sent ripples across global currency markets. As its dominance falters, investors everywhere are asking, how far could it fall - and who stands to gain? In this week's THINK aloud, a replay of our live webinar, ING's Chris Turner, Francesco Pesole, Frantisek Taborsky, and Deepali Bhargava share their views.
President Donald Trump this week delayed the planned 9 July tariff hikes on US imports, notifying 22 countries that rates could rise as much as 50% on 1 August.
The White House had paused these measures for 90 days to pursue trade deals, but since Trump’s so-called Liberation Day announcement on 2 April, only three agreements have been reached.
ING’s Inga Fechner says the new deadline, which Trump has described as firm, but not 100% firm, prolongs the uncertainty for business and consumers around the world. James Knightley says this is weighing on US economic growth - with GDP forecasts for 2025 markedly lower than at the start of the year.
For now at least, markets are taking the news in stride, having recovered from the extreme volatility seen in April. But Padhraic Garvey says tariff-induced inflation and worries about fiscal sustainability present a difficult backdrop for US Treasuries.
In this week’s THINK aloud, a replay of our live webinar, we look at the future of so-called reciprocal tariffs, potential sector-specific tariffs, the legal uncertainties ahead, the threat of retaliation and the broader impact on the global economy and financial markets.
A US-brokered ceasefire between Iran and Israel sent oil prices tumbling this week, as traders and investors bet that the bombing campaigns are over and that the crucial Strait of Hormuz - through which 21 million barrels of oil pass each day -will not be disrupted.
The drop in oil prices is good news for global growth – and for inflation, potentially giving central banks in Europe and the US some breathing room to cut interest rates later this year.
But is the crisis really over? Or have the risks simply evolved?
With geopolitical tensions still simmering, do investors ned to price in a more persistent risk premium?
In this podcast, ING's Warren Patterson unpacks the outlook for oil, Bert Colijn explores the economic impact, and Francesceo Pesole looks at what it all means for the dollar.
President Trump's unpredictable trade policy has undermined confidence and deepened uncertainty across the global economy this year. In this podcast, ING's James Knightley, Carsten Brzeski, and James Smith discuss the outlook for the US, eurozone and UK economies in this new, uncharted territory while Chris Turner looks at the implications for financial markets.
Officials from China and the US will meet in Switzerland this week to de-escalate a trade war that has disrupted global supply chains, deepened economic uncertainty, and triggered significant market volatility. In this podcast, ING’s Chief Economist for Greater China, Lynn Song, discusses how the talks could unfold, and the impact of the tariffs on China’s economy this year and beyond.
President Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement on April 2nd, a 90-day pause for most countries yet with escalating tariffs on China, exemptions on tech products from China, and later, news that these exemptions may only be temporary have left investors deeply unsettled.
While much of the focus last week was on soaring Treasury yields and falling stock markets, corporate bonds were hit hard, too.
Spreads on corporate bonds widened by the most since the regional banking crisis two years ago, as investors demanded higher returns in a riskier, more unpredictable environment.
Bond funds have seen huge outflows and the market for new issues of debt has all but ground to a halt.
In this podcast, ING's Credit Strategist Tim Rahill explains why he remains so cautious about the market and why investors need to be selective.
US-EU tariffs are a threat to the export-driven economies of Central and Eastern Europe.
But ING economists argue that the region has ways to manage the disruption, and a trade war could serve as a much-needed catalyst for change.
In this podcast, a replay of our live webinar, ING’s Inga Fechner, Peter Virovacz, David Havrlant, Rafal Benecki, Valentin Tataru, and Muhammet Mercan explain why they think the region could prove to be more resilient than most expect.
The root cause of America's economic imbalances can be traced to a single factor: the strength of the US dollar. At least, that’s the view of Stephen Miran, President Trump’s newly appointed Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors.
In an essay published late last year, Miran argued that the dollar's strength, driven by inelastic demand for Treasuries and the dollar’s status as a global reserve currency, has resulted in persistently cheap imports, reduced the competitiveness of its exports, eroded US manufacturing, and resulted in soaring deficits.
His answer to this problem is a so-called Mar-a-Lago Accord, where trading partners would sell dollars and US Treasuries from their FX reserves or face higher tariffs and the removal of security guarantees.
But is an overvalued dollar really to blame for America’s financial problems? Would trading partners agree to the plan? And what could it mean for the US markets?
In this podcast, ING’s Chris Turner and Padhraic Garvey explain why they think the plan would be counterproductive and fraught with risk.
President Trump’s decision to temporarily suspend military support for Ukraine, coupled with his implicit threat to withdraw US forces from Europe unless Nato allies increase their defence spending, has upended the near 80-year transatlantic alliance, and left European countries scrambling to respond.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has called for a ‘surge’ in defence spending and said nothing is off the table when it comes to raising money. Last week, she unveiled an €800bn plan to allow member states to increase spending and borrow money for defence purposes without violating the bloc’s strict budget rules.
But some EU member states have already pushed back, with highly indebted countries like Italy worried about the financial strain of the plan and Germany concerned about the implications for its fiscal conservatism.
So who will pay, how much will they pay, and what will it all mean for Europe’s economy, markets, and security?
In this podcast, ING’s Global Head of Macro Carsten Brzeski and Netherlands' Chief Economist Bert Colijn discuss the hard political and financial choices ahead for Europe and the chances of success.
In this podcast, ING commodities analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey share their views on the outlook for energy, metals, and agriculture in the year ahead.
A new US president, trade war threats, political instability in Europe, and mounting fiscal concerns obscure the outlook for the global economy in 2025. In this podcast, ING's James Knightley, Carsten Brzeski, and James Smith discuss the themes that will shape the economy, inflation, and interest rates over the coming year.
Aluminium is an essential metal in our daily lives. It also plays a crucial role in the energy transition, and demand is soaring. But producing aluminium is highly energy-intensive, and urgent action is needed to reduce the industry's carbon footprint. In this podcast, ING's Ewa Manthey, Egor Fedorov, and Coco Zhang discuss the ongoing efforts to make the industry more sustainable.
ING FX strategists Chris Turner, Francesco Pesole, and Frantisek Taborsky discuss how Donald Trump's policies will reshape global currency markets in the year ahead.
Credit markets reacted positively to the outcome of the US election, with spreads - the difference between yields on corporate bonds relative to those on government securities - narrowing across the board. But the longer term implications are more complicated.
ING analysts Jeroen van den Broek and Tim Rahill predict a tough year ahead for credit, with a Trump presidency one of 25 reasons to be cautious in 2025.
In this week’s THINK aloud, a replay of our live webinar, Jeroen and Tim explain why they think spreads could widen next year and why investors need to be selective while strategists Suvi Platerink Kosenon and Jesse Norcross take a closer look at banks and real estate.
The countries of Central and Eastern Europe have successfully avoided the middle-income trap and evolved into high-income economies. The next challenge is to converge with the income levels enjoyed by some of the core EU economies. But this could prove more difficult. The old growth model, based on exports and cheap labour, has reached its limits, and a new strategy is now required.
In this week’s THINK aloud, a condensed replay of our live webinar, we discuss the long-term challenges and opportunities in the region, and share our views on the outlook for growth, inflation and monetary policy over the coming year.
Inflation is down and unemployment is rising. Have global central banks left it too late to start cutting interest rates? ING's economists and analysts share their views in this week's THINK aloud.
The economies of Central and Eastern Europe are largely in recovery mode. Slowing inflation and rising real wages have boosted consumer spending, which should continue to support GDP growth well into 2025.
Meanwhile, on the investment front, the region is drawing substantial interest from large multinational corporations, as its strategic location, low cost base and skilled workforce position it as an ideal hub for nearshoring.
The benefits of EU accession have been tangible across the board. But of course, there are short- and longer-term challenges.
In this podcast, a condensed replay of our live Webinar, our team of experts share their views on Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Romania, Turkey, Ukraine and the Commonwealth of Independent States.
The European Central Bank is widely expected to cut interest rates on Thursday from a record high of 4%. It’s an unusual move for two reasons: There’s no recession or crisis to precipitate a cut – in fact the eurozone economy has recently shown signs of improvement. And it comes ahead of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve, which has traditionally led the way for the ECB, but isn’t expected to ease policy until later in the year. In this week’s THINK aloud, a replay of our live quarterly webinar, ING’s Carsten Brzeski and James Knightley discuss why policymakers are currently pursuing different paths, how long the divergence could last, and whether the coming US and European elections could influence decisions on monetary policy. James Smith looks at the timing of a Bank of England rate cut amid a crucial UK vote while Chris Turner explains what it could all mean for the markets.
China is a country in transition. After decades of rapid growth at any cost, the economic model is shifting to one centred on high quality, sustainable growth driven by the consumer. In this podcast, a replay of our recent webinar, ING’s Chief Economist for Greater China Lynn Song tells Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne why he thinks this will be a difficult but necessary transition while Commodities Strategist Ewa Manthey explains what it could mean for industrial metals.
In this week’s THINK aloud, we bring you the highlights of our Economics Live webinar, where we discussed the outlook for the global economy, monetary policy and financial markets with ING's James Knightley, Carsten Brzeski, James Smith and Francesco Pesole.
2023 was the hottest year on record. The Copernicus Climate Change Service saystemperatures last year likely exceeded “those of any period in at least the last 100,000 years”. Yet the United Nations says global commitments to slash greenhouse gas emissions are still “falling far short of what is required”. Without urgent action, scientists say, our planet faces severe and irreversible climate disruption.
But there is some hope. And it comes from Artificial Intelligence, as ING's Ewa Manthey explains in this podcast.
Recent months have seen the US dollar on a powerful bull run. Propelled by strong economic growth and a hawkish Federal Reserve, which has signalled that interest rates will stay higher for longer, the dollar index has risen around 5% since July. But will this strong dollar theme continue in 2024? ING's Chris Turner has his doubts.
The price of oil surged more than 30% in the third quarter, driven by solid global demand, supply cuts from OPEC+ and additional voluntary cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia. But is the market starting to turn? And what does it all mean for growth, inflation and monetary policy? ING's Head of Commodities Strategy, Warren PattersonSenior Economist Bert Colijn says this has serious implications for growth, inflation and monetary policy in the eurozone.
As interest rates in the US, UK and Europe approach a peak, and economic growth shows further signs of faltering, the focus has firmly shifted to rate cuts. In this week's THINK aloud, a replay of ING's live central bank webinar, ING's James Knightley, Carsten Brzeski, and James Smith discuss their forecasts for monetary policy over the coming year while Chris Turner explains what it all means for markets.
As the Western world struggles to tame high inflation, fears of persistent deflation are taking root in China. Prices at the factory gate have been dropping for months and in June, fell at the fastest pace in seven years. Consumer prices, meanwhile, have begun to flatline. The property market is stagnating and the economy overall has been losing momentum, fuelling speculation that China could be facing a prolonged period of decline similar to the so-called Lost Decade witnessed by Japan in the 1990s.
China, the world’s second biggest economy, may indeed be entering a new era, after many years of rapid growth. But ING’s Regional Head of Research in Asia, Rob Carnell, says comparisons to Japan are wide of the mark. In this podcast, he explains why.
Global temperatures have shattered records this month, heightening the urgency to reduce carbon emissions. But the energy transition and the shift to electric vehicles, in particular, is fraught with challenges, as ING Commodities Strategist Ewa Manthey explains in this podcast.
In this podcast, a replay of an ING event this week, Developed Markets Economist James Smith and Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne discuss the outlook for UK inflation, interest rates, and mortgage costs, and whether a recession is now inevitable while Global Head of Markets Chris Turner explains what the markets are looking for - and why the pound has recently been faltering.
In a live webinar event this week, ING's James Knightley, Carsten Brzeski and James Smith discussed the outlook for inflation, economic growth and monetary policy around the world while Chris Turner explained what it could all mean for markets.
As talks to raise the US debt ceiling go down to the wire, and the threat of a default looms large, currency markets have remained remarkably composed. In this podcast, ING's Chris Turner discusses what could happen to the dollar if a deal is not agreed, and what he expects from the rest of the FX world in the months ahead.
As two more regional US lenders - PacWest and Western Alliance - saw their share prices collapse this week, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates again but hinted that this may be the peak of the tightening cycle. In this podcast, ING's Chief International Economist James Knightley explains why he expects the Fed to reverse course "very quickly and very sharply" while ING's Head of Macro Carsten Brzeski discusses what this could all mean for Europe.
With soaring public debt since the Covid pandemic and much higher debt servicing costs after aggressive rate hikes around the world, emerging markets remain a risky proposition. Some countries, like Zambia, Ghana, and Sri Lanka have already defaulted. The IMF has revised down its forecasts for EM economies in recent months, and the global impact of the recent banking crisis in the US and Europe is not yet known. Yet, ING’s sovereign debt strategist James Wilson sees value in the developing world. In this podcast, he explains why.
In this podcast, ING's Global Head of Sector Research Jeroen van den Broek and Credit Strategist Tim Rahill discuss how the recent turmoil in the banking sector has impacted the credit market and why they remain constructive on the outlook for corporate bonds in 2023.
In this podcast, ING's Padhraic Garvey and Antoine Bouvet discuss the latest central bank decisions to raise interest rates despite recent turmoil in the banking sector.
In this podcast, ING's James Knightley, Carsten Brzeski, and James Smith discuss where interest rates may be heading in the US, Europe and UK while Chris Turner explains what this could all mean for global markets.
One year after Russia’s devastating invasion of Ukraine, Europe is still learning to adapt to the new economic reality. In this podcast, ING’s Warren Patterson, Peter Vanden Houte and Chris Turner discuss the short- and long-term implications of the war for energy supplies, the economy and global financial markets.
In this podcast, ING's James Knightley, Carsten Brzeski and James Smith discuss whether interest rates in the US and Europe are close to a peak, what this could mean for the global economy and whether rate cuts could be in the offing this year.
Global commodity markets have swung wildly this year, and the volatility may be set to continue into 2023. While Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent prices surging earlier in the year on concern that supply would be disrupted, worries about demand have since become the main driving force, with Brent crude falling below $80 a barrel this week for the first time since January. In this podcast, ING's Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey discuss what they expect from the market next year.
The COP27 climate summit in Egypt was supposed to be the moment when governments turned lofty aspirations into real world action, implementing the climate pledges made in Glasgow last year. Instead, meaningful progress on critical issues has stalled, with some countries even being accused of backsliding on their original commitments. Still, ING economist Gerben Hieminga and ESG researcher Coco Zhang are cautiously optimistic about the outcome.
After four 75bp rate hikes, the US Federal Reserve has signalled a slower pace of tightening ahead. But Chair Jerome Powell also warned that it is "very premature" to consider a pause and that rates may need to stay higher for longer, as the Fed battles to contain inflation near a 40-year high. In this podcast, ING's Chief International Economist James Knightley and Regional Head of Americas, Padhraic Garvey, discuss what this could mean for the US economy and market interest rates over the coming year.
In this podcast, ING's Chris Turner, James Smith and Antoine Bouvet discuss the UK government's fiscal policy, why it's sent markets into a tailspin and whether the Bank of England's intervention will be enough to stave off a financial crisis.
In this week's THINK aloud, ING's Chris Turner, Developed Markets Economist James Smith and Senior Rates Strategist Antoine Bouvet discuss the latest inflation data from the US and UK, the implications of intervention in energy markets in Europe and the outlook for monetary policy.
The European Central Bank cited the weak euro as one reason to raise interest rates by 75bp on Thursday - the most on record. But tighter monetary policy is unlikely to change the euro's course. In this podcast, ING's Global Head of Markets Chris Turner explains why - and shares his broader outlook for the FX world in the months ahead.
The Bank of England raised interest rates by 50bp on Thursday, the most in a quarter century, as inflation sits at a 40-year high. And despite forecasting a protracted recession amid an 'exceptionally' uncertain backdrop, the central bank also pledged to act 'forcefully' again in the future. In this podcast, ING's James Smith discusses the rationale behind the decision and what could happen next.
The Securities and Exchange Commission's climate disclosure rules were controversial from the start. But a recent ruling by the US Supreme Court has cast further doubt on the regulator's ability to implement the proposal. In this podcast, ING's Deputy General Counsel Tim Meehan and ESG Analyst Coco Zhang explain why the rules matter so much for investors and what could happen now.
The European Central Bank raised interest rates for the first time in more than a decade this week and left the door open for further hikes in a bid to combat the highest inflation on record. But the Bank also announced a new bond-buying programme to soften the blow of rising rates amid a political crisis in Italy, a deteriorating economic outlook, and fears of a new debt crisis. ING's Carsten Brzeski says the strategy is akin to stepping on the brakes and the accelerator at the same time. So can it work? What's the central bank's next move? And what does it all mean for Europe's economic outlook?
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell says the battle to contain inflation without triggering a recession will be "very challenging". In this podcast, ING's International Economist James Knightley discusses his expectations for monetary policy in the months ahead and whether the central bank can engineer a soft landing.
The war in Ukraine will exacerbate the UK's cost of living crisis this year, with real disposable incomes set to drop by the most on record. In this podcast, ING economist James Smith discusses the outlook for growth and inflation, and what the unprecedented squeeze on living standards means for future fiscal and monetary policy.
Global commodity markets have been swinging wildly since Russia invaded Ukraine, with everything from oil to wheat caught up in the crisis. In this podcast, ING's Warren Patterson discusses the challenge of reducing western dependency on Russia, and where the markets may be heading next.
Putin's invasion of Ukraine has dampened expectations for economic growth in Europe and raised forecasts for inflation, making life more difficult for the European Central Bank. In this podcast, ING's Global Head of Macro, Carsten Brzeski, discusses how the war has changed his outlook for the economy and what the central bank should now.
In this podcast, ING's Chris Turner and Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne reflect on a historic week that has shaken confidence and rocked financial markets around the world.
Carbon markets have been hailed as a solution to climate change. But how do they work? Will they be effective in bringing emissions down to levels that the earth can sustain, or are they simply an exercise in greenwashing? ING economist Samuel Abettan shares his views in this podcast.
The Federal Reserve is optimistic about US growth prospects next year, with policymakers now calling for three interest rate hikes in 2022. But the US bond market appears to be sending a rather different signal, with a flattening yield curve suggesting the recovery could be cut short. In this podcast, ING's Padhraic Garvey discusses why long-term yields have remained so low in the face of soaring inflation and impending rate hikes, and whether things could change in 2022.
The Omicron variant will hit economic growth in Europe over the coming months, but won't derail the recovery next year, according to ING's Carsten Brzeski, who remains optimistic about the region's prospects despite a recent surge in the virus and restrictions to contain its spread.
It's fair to say the COP26 climate agreement in Glasgow has received a mixed response. While UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson hailed the deal as "truly historic" and a "game changer" for the planet, climate activists have called it an abject failure, with former Extinction Rebellion spokesperson Rupert Read describing the outcome as "stunningly, pitifully, entirely inadequate". In this podcast, ING's Samuel Abettan and Coco Zhang say the truth lies somewhere in between.
To everything there is a season. And for the US Federal Reserve, this is a time to taper. But how significant is the move, when will interest rates rise, and are markets pricing this correctly? In this podcast, ING's Chief International Economist James Knightley provides some answers.
Chancellor Rishi Sunak says the UK economy is recovering faster than its major competitors and public finances are stabilising. Economic growth for this year has been revised up to 6.5% from 4% in March. But taxes are going up, too, with the tax burden set to rise to the highest level in 70 years. At the same time, markets expect the Bank of England to embark on a series of interest rate hikes, starting next week. With signs that the economy may be starting to lose momentum though, is it too much too soon? ING's Developed Markets Economist James Smith takes a look.
Financial markets have brushed off the Federal Reserve's hawkish shift, as well as a liquidity crisis at Chinese property developer, Evergrande. In this podcast, ING's Global Head of Markets, Chris Turner, explains why and what it means for global currencies.
Inflation risks are rising in Europe. But will the region's bond markets take note? European Central Bank member Isabel Schnabel said in a speech this week that while much of the recent rise in prices is transitory, the mood in financial markets is changing and there are growing signs that supply disruptions and commodity shortages may be more prolonged than first thought. In this podcast, ING's Antoine Bouvet shares his thoughts.
Asia emits half the world's carbon dioxide. But ahead of the COP26 climate change talks in November, only a handful of Asian countries have made firm commitments to achieving a net-zero carbon future. And getting there will be a monumental challenge. In this podcast, ING's Rob Carnell explains why.
China cracked down on the online gaming industry this week, the latest in a series of policies aimed at strengthening the public sector and reining in private enterprise. But the reforms could bring short-term economic pain at a time when China is already struggling with the Covid pandemic, chip shortages and widespread flooding, as ING's Iris Pang explains in this podcast.
France's Covid health pass will be extended next week to a wider range of public venues including cafes and restaurants, as the government doubles down on efforts to contain a fourth wave of infections. In this podcast, ING's Samuel Abettan looks at the economic implications of the new measures and what they could mean for French President Emmanuel Macron.
The global car industry was forced to slam on the brakes this year, as a shortage of semiconductors hit production just as demand was starting to pick up. While the problem is expected to be temporary, unresolved supply issues and the rise of electric cars, which are even more reliant on chips, suggest there may be bumps in the road ahead, as ING's Oleksiy Soroka explains.
Emerging markets have been resilient this year despite the Federal Reserve's hawkish shift in June and fresh lockdowns in some countries that threaten to derail the recovery. In this podcast, ING's Trieu Pham discusses why the calm has prevailed and how long it's likely to last.
OPEC+ called off its meeting this week without an agreement to increase oil supplies, sending Brent to a three-year high and WTI to levels not seen since 2014. Since then, prices have fallen back with some market participants still expecting a deal to be struck while others say the disagreement could lead to a price war. In this podcast, ING's Warren Patterson shares his thoughts on OPEC's next move, and what it could mean for prices.
The Bank of England's outgoing chief economist Andy Haldane has sounded the alarm on inflation repeatedly this year and was the only MPC member to vote to reduce QE at this week's policy meeting. In this podcast, ING's James Smith weighs in on the debate and looks at the prospects for a rate hike as soon as next year.
A hawkish Federal Reserve meeting has prompted investors to reassess the outlook for asset purchases and the timing of interest rate hikes. In this podcast, ING's Padhraic Garvey looks at the implications for the US Treasury market.
The European Central Bank said it is still too early to discuss reducing monetary stimulus, even as it raised its growth and inflation forecasts for this year and next. In this podcast, ING's Carsten Brzeski discusses the Bank's latest decision and when it may be forced to change tack.
US inflation is rising at the fastest pace in more than a decade. Should we be worried? In this podcast, ING's James Knightley discusses whether recent price rises are likely to be transitory as the Federal Reserve believes, or a more sustained risk to the recovery.
Our High Yield trading, strategy and syndicate teams take over this week's podcast for an informal conversation around year-to-date primary debt markets.
Hawks are growing louder at the US Federal Reserve. But with interest rate hikes still likely to be years away, the dollar is taking recent taper talk in stride. In this podcast, ING's Global Head of Markets Chris Turner looks at how the monetary policy debate is shifting both inside and outside the US and how global currency markets are responding. Plus, a little something on Bitcoin...
US-China relations have worsened under the Biden Administration, with both sides openly trading barbs and Trump-era trade tariffs remaining firmly in place. In this podcast, ING's Senior Economist Joanna Konings discusses what's likely to happen next and what it could mean for world trade this year.
India is in the grip of a particularly cruel second wave that is overwhelming hospitals and testing the endurance of a nation. In this podcast, ING's Prakash Sakpal looks at the latest developments in the pandemic and whether India's economy and markets can weather the storm.
Ambitious new targets for cutting carbon emissions and bold spending plans have fuelled optimism about the green revolution and helped to power a rally in the raw materials that will underpin the transition. In this podcast, Warren Patterson looks at which metals will benefit the most and whether rising investment in green infrastructure could herald a supercycle for commodities.
In Asia, second and third waves of the coronavirus are raging in some countries, with India reporting more than 100,000 new cases a day over the past week. Yet the region overall has coped better with the crisis than its peers in the West and the IMF this week raised its forecast for the Asia-Pacific economy in 2021. In this podcast, ING's Rob Carnell explains why the pandemic has been more contained and what it means for the economy and markets this year.
Far from being the 'Great Equaliser,' Covid-19 has magnified socio-economic differences across Europe, exposing fault lines both between and within countries. In this podcast, ING's Julien Manceaux and Franziska Biel discuss their latest research on rising inequality in the labour market, which they say poses a threat to European cohesion.
The European Commission is calling for tougher controls on vaccine exports, as the bloc struggles with a third wave of the virus and criticism over its handling of the vaccine rollout. The vaccination programme has been hindered by a slower authorisation process, delayed deliveries and suspensions over fears of possible side effects. In this podcast, ING’s Carsten Brzeski looks at how rising infections, fresh lockdowns and a sluggish pace of vaccination are likely to impact the region's economic recovery.
President Joe Biden says his $1.9 trillion pandemic rescue plan, for the first time, prioritises working- and middle-class Americans. But US household wealth has surged throughout the pandemic, with increases in savings spread more broadly across the income spectrum compared to Europe, as ING's James Knightley explains in this podcast.
The European Central Bank is stepping up the pace of asset purchases in response to rising bonds yields, which have threatened to undermine the eurozone’s economic recovery. German bund yields rose to the highest level in a year last month while French 10-year bond yields climbed above zero for the first time since June. Eurozone bond markets have been tracking a rise in US Treasury yields on worries about higher inflation. But the ECB’s actions on Thursday prompted a rally in bonds, pushing yields lower. So has the bank done enough? In this podcast, ING’s Senior Rates Strategist Antoine Bouvet discusses the central bank's next move and the outlook for market interest rates in the months ahead.
UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak is going where few finance ministers have gone before in the Covid-19 pandemic, announcing future tax hikes to pay for relief measures. Those measures, which were extended in Wednesday’s Budget, have pushed government borrowing to record levels. Without corrective action, Sunak said, underlying debt would rise indefinitely. And while borrowing costs are affordable now, he pointed to the recent rise in UK Gilt yields as evidence this may not be the case forever. In this podcast, ING’s Developed Markets Economist James Smith discusses whether Sunak is right to be focusing on the deficit, whether the new support measures will be effective and when the UK economy will start to recover.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell sent a message to nervous bond markets this week: calm down. But are traders and investors listening? 10-year Treasury yields have continued their march higher on hopes for an economic recovery, sparking concern that the move could eventually spiral into a so-called 'taper tantrum' similar to that seen in 2013. In this podcast, ING's Chris Turner discusses the prospect of a further sharp sell-off in bonds and the implications for global markets.
In economic terms, the second wave of the pandemic in Europe has been less severe than the first. Official lockdowns have been less harsh and more targeted, according to EU Economic Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni. But new ING research shows that other forces may be at work as well, including lower levels of voluntary social distancing. In this podcast, ING's Bert Colijn discusses whether the trend will continue in the face of new mutations and a relatively slow vaccine rollout.
It gave B.B. King the blues. And Larry Summers is getting worried about it, too. Inflation in the US is set to rise in the coming months, fuelled by an economic reawakening and massive fiscal stimulus. Will the Federal Reserve be forced to respond? In this podcast, ING's James Knightley takes a look.
The World Health Organization says vaccine hoarding would be a catastrophic moral failure that would keep the pandemic burning and result in a very slow global economic recovery. Yet many emerging markets still find themselves at the back of the vaccine queue, heaping further pressure on countries that are already suffering from high debt levels, soaring unemployment and growing social unrest. Until now, investors have been relatively unfazed by these risks, pouring billions into emerging market bonds and driving credit spreads close to record lows. But will that continue? ING's Sovereign Debt Strategist Trieu Pham discusses.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this week that the Bank is monitoring the corporate bond market, where spreads have narrowed to levels seen before the pandemic and yields on some of the riskiest debt are trading near historic lows. In this podcast, ING’s Jeroen van den Broek says the market is ‘very expensive’ and investors are underestimating the level of risk.
Optimism surrounding the Covid vaccine coupled with a crude oil production cut from Saudi Arabia have lifted the price of Brent by about 7% since the start of the year, adding to a 25% surge in the last three months of 2020. But with many economies still in full lockdown, demand for oil is expected to be weak over the next few months while higher prices could encourage some producers to pump more than agreed. So are the gains justified or has the rally gone too far? And how will the rest of the commodities complex perform this year? Warren Patterson, ING’s Head of Commodities Strategy in Singapore, shares his thoughts.
With a new variant of Covid-19 spreading rapidly across the UK, schools, non-essential retail, pubs and restaurants have been forced to shut until the middle of February, when priority groups are expected to have been vaccinated and measures can be eased. In response to the national lockdown, Chancellor Rishi Sunak has announced a £4.6 billion relief package but many businesses fear that won’t be enough and that more help is needed. In this podcast, ING's Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne asks Developed Markets Economist James Smith what impact the new restrictions will have on the economy in the coming weeks and months.
With just two weeks to go before the Brexit transition period comes to an end, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen still haven’t agreed on the terms of a future relationship. But there’s little sign of panic in financial markets. News that the negotiations will continue past the Sunday deadline and signs that the mood has become slightly more conciliatory have pushed the pound higher this week. But will this optimism last and what does it mean for the pound if ultimately, no deal is agreed? In this podcast, ING's Global Head of Markets Chris Turner discusses the outlook for sterling, and what may be in store for other currencies in 2021.
UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak has laid the groundwork for tackling Britain's unprecedented surge in borrowing, which is set to hit a peacetime record of almost £400 billion this year. But is it too soon to be worrying about the spiralling debt load? In this podcast, ING's Padhraic Garvey shares his thoughts
President-elect Joe Biden says the Trump administration’s refusal to concede the election will not affect the transition of power. But could this lack of cooperation be a harbinger of things to come? Unless Democrats can secure two Senate seats in Georgia in a January run-off, Republicans will retain control of the upper chamber, constraining Biden’s ability to push through his economic agenda and the Democrats' proposed fiscal stimulus, worth $3.4 trillion.
The ongoing political division in Washington comes as millions of Americans remain out of work, incomes are being squeezed and rising Covid-19 cases raise the spectre of tighter restrictions. In this podcast, ING’s Chief International Economist James Knightley discusses the outlook for the US economy, with Biden at the helm.
President Trump's 'America First' policy has been criticised by rival Joe Biden as an isolationist strategy that has left America alone in the world, turning former allies into adversaries. The European Union may be a case in point. Faced with threats of tariffs and sanctions, trade relations have soured in recent years, with Trump calling Europe a "foe" which is "almost as bad as China". In this podcast, ING's Global Head of Macro Carsten Brzeski tells Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne how the coming election could influence transatlantic relations and Europe's economy.
New lockdown measures to stem the spread of the virus in Europe are threatening to plunge the region back into recession after a brief respite over the summer, while disputes among policymakers risk delaying much-needed stimulus. In this podcast, ING's Bert Colijn discusses the outlook for the region in the fourth quarter and beyond.
With more Americans than ever voting by mail in the November election, and President Trump's warning that the final outcome may not be known for months, the spectre of a delayed result is still a risk to financial markets despite Joe Biden's current lead in the polls. High yield bonds - sometimes considered to be the canary in the coal mine for broader risk assets - are starting to wobble, with the European market registering its first monthly negative return since March. Is it a sign of things to come? ING's Senior High Yield Credit Analyst Oleksiy Soroka explains.
A recent increase in the number of Covid-19 cases and new lockdown measures to stem the spread of the virus have sparked concern that demand for oil could be hit at a time when supply is picking up. In this podcast, ING's Warren Patterson discusses the outlook for oil prices, what OPEC+ may do next and how the US presidential election could play a role.
The Covid-19 pandemic has ripped through the developing world this year with particular cruelty and ferocity, upending lives and livelihoods on a scale never seen before. But in markets, at least, signs of hope have started to emerge. In this podcast, ING's Emerging Market Sovereign Debt Strategist Trieu Pham takes a look at what the future holds for some of the hardest-hit countries in the world.
The UK government has changed some of the provisions in its divorce agreement with the EU, putting strain on already tense relations with the bloc and threatening to undermine a trade deal. In response, investors have pushed the pound down against both the dollar and the euro. But is a trade deal really so much better than no deal at all? In this podcast, ING's Developed Markets Economist James Smith offers his thoughts and explains why a sudden plunge in GDP is unlikely.
Is the Federal Reserve encouraging a stock market bubble? Critics say a recent change to the central bank's policy framework has undesirable side effects and puts the dollar at risk. Fed member Lael Brainard admitted this week that the new policy, and consequent expectations that interest rates will stay lower for longer, could indeed entice investors to take more risk in the search for higher returns. In this podcast, ING's Chris Turner looks at what this means for financial markets around the world.
With less than 10 weeks to go until the US election, President Trump continues to trail Democrat rival Joe Biden in the polls. But the race is far from over. In this podcast, ING's James Knightley discusses how economic developments could affect the outcome of the vote and what the result could mean for policy, and for financial markets.
Many short-time work schemes in Europe are set to end at the turn of the year, suggesting the unemployment rate will finally start to reflect some of the huge economic damage caused by Covid-19. In this podcast ING's Carsten Brzeski tells Rebecca Byrne what he's expecting from the job market over the coming year and how this could impact the recovery.
Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, warned explicitly that the economic recovery in the US will depend on the path of Covid-19, perhaps in an effort to provide a dose of realism to buoyant equity markets. The optimism priced into stocks stands in stark contrast to the much more negative sentiment in the bond market, where Treasury yields are near record lows. In this podcast, Padhraic Garvey, ING's Regional Head of Research in the Americas, tells Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne which market has got it right.
EU leaders have agreed to issue common debt and hand it out as grants to struggling member states, in a move that some have compared to Alexander Hamilton's decision to federalise US debt. In this podcast, ING's Senior Eurozone Economist Bert Colijn tells Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne what the agreement really means for future integration and discusses its implications for the economy and markets.
China’s economy is growing again. But so, too, is global pressure. The US officially rescinded Hong Kong’s special status this week while the UK is banning Huawei from its 5G network. Meanwhile, China’s relations with Canada, Australia and many of its Asian neighbours are strained by disputes over technology, trade and its pursuit of resources in the South China Sea. In this podcast, ING’s Chief Economist for Greater China, Iris Pang, discusses the risks and challenges ahead with Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne.
UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak has laid out the next phase in the government's response to the Covid-19 pandemic, as the economy reopens after a three-month lockdown and the worst slump in 300 years. He announced measures to support the job market, as the furlough scheme is gradually wound down, cuts to VAT and property taxes as well as restaurant vouchers, to help sectors hit particularly hard by the crisis. But will the new plans really help to minimise job losses and stimulate demand, as consumers remain wary about the virus and social distancing measures remain in place? In this podcast, ING's Developed Markets Economist shares his thoughts with Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne.
With 1.4 million coronavirus cases and over 60,000 deaths, Brazil now ranks as the second worst hit country in the world after the United States. But while the political response to the crisis has been controversial, its economy will not suffer as much as some of its neighbours in the region amid sharp cuts in interest rates and generous fiscal policy. In this podcast, ING's Chief Economist for Latin America, Gustavo Rangel, discusses the outlook for the country with Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne.
Covid-19 cases are still rising in the US. But so, too, are financial markets. The S&P 500 is on track for one of its best quarters ever while the Nasdaq recently hit a record high and the safe-haven dollar is selling off. In this podcast, ING's Chris Turner explains what's been driving these moves and what may lie ahead for the currency markets in the second half of the year.
It was supposed to be the defining year of Climate Action. But the Covid-19 pandemic and economic destruction left in its wake have created an even more pressing emergency and some fear that climate action will become another casualty of the crisis. In this podcast, Mark Cliffe, Global Head of ING's New Horizons Hub, tells Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne what the pandemic could mean for the future of our planet.
More severe lockdowns, weaker safety nets, smaller emergency spending programmes and structural challenges pose grave risks to the economic recovery in Southern Europe. In this podcast, ING's Senior Eurozone Economist Bert Colijn tells Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne why the periphery could face a more prolonged slump than the 'core' member states.
Mass protests over the police killing of George Floyd, 100,000 deaths from the coronavirus pandemic, an unprecedented economic downturn, and 40 million Americans out of work. Rarely has an election year looked this bad for a sitting US president. And yet, the outcome remains unpredictable, with no guarantee that Democrat rival Joe Biden will win in November. In this podcast, ING's Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne asks Chief International Economist James Knightley how the turmoil is likely to influence the race to the White House.
The coronavirus, and associated lockdowns around the world, have upended all sectors of the global economy. But the car industry, which was already struggling before the pandemic, has been particularly hard hit. In this podcast, ING's Senior Economist Joanna Konings tells Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne how the industry has been disrupted, what the future holds for electric vehicles and whether prolonged social distancing could put the brakes on car sharing.
Lebanese protestors held a mock funeral for their local currency earlier this month after a financial crisis, exacerbated by the coronavirus, sent it into a tailspin. With other emerging markets also feeling the pain of a strong dollar, proponents of digital currencies are touting the benefits of a system run by algorithms rather than politicians and central banks. In this podcast, ING's Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne asks Digital Finance Economist Carlo Cocuzzo whether the economic damage caused by Covid-19 could speed up the adoption of digital currencies around the world.
As the US and UK move to ease lockdown measures, we look to countries that have already emerged from quarantine for clues about what to expect in the weeks ahead. In this podcast, ING's Head of Asia Pacific Research Rob Carnell discusses the lessons learned from Asia, how China is positioning itself on the world stage and whether the global recovery could be hampered by another trade war.
Unlike the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank has not yet discussed adding junk bonds to its asset purchase programme. But President Christine Lagarde has signalled that this option remains on the table. In this podcast, Jeroen van den Broek, ING's Global Head of Sector Research, tells Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne why he thinks the Bank will end up buying so-called 'fallen angels' and why it could be a risky strategy.
Global oil prices have recovered some ground after tanking this week to historic lows. But the outlook for crude still looks bleak. In this podcast, ING's Head of Commodities Strategy Warren Patterson tells Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne why prices could turn negative again next month.
European finance ministers have agreed on a €540 billion package of support for the Eurozone. But the thorny issue of debt sharing remains unresolved. Can the euro project survive without it? In this podcast, ING's Carsten Brzeski, Global Head of Macro and Chief Economist of the Eurozone, shares his thoughts with Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne.
The hospitalisation of UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson adds another layer of uncertainty to the British economy, which is already suffering from an almost complete shutdown of activity. In this podcast, ING's Developed Market Economist James Smith talks to Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne about what lies ahead for the UK.
President Trump extends social distancing in the US until the end of April. But like other countries around the globe, the move to limit the spread of the virus will come at a severe economic cost. In this podcast, ING's chief international economist James Knightley discusses the potential hit to growth and possible path for recovery under four coronavirus scenarios.
After an initial panic in financial markets, signs of stability have started to emerge. There's hope the coronavirus will be contained and that stimulus measures will mitigate the economic damage. But there's no question the outbreak will take a toll on global growth. In our new podcast, THINK aloud, ING’s Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne asks Rob Carnell, head of research and chief economist of the Asia-Pacific region, how he expects the situation to play out.
Gross domestic product is a deeply flawed measure of economic growth. In fact, a new ING report claims that US GDP is consistently understated by 0.75% while inflation is overstated by 0.4%. In our new podcast, THINK Aloud, ING's Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne asks Chief Economist Mark Cliffe to explain what's going on and why it matters.
Time is running out for UK lawmakers to stop a 'no deal' Brexit on October 31. In our brand new THINK aloud podcast, Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne speaks with ING economist James Smith about the options available to MPs, whether a deal can be struck at the last minute, and what all of this means for the UK economy and the pound.
Three central banks, three quite different strategies. In our brand new THINK aloud podcast, Senior Editor Rebecca Byrne explores where interest rates are heading next
Stay tuned for expert analysis that you won't find anywhere else. THINK aloud is a new podcast by ING, where we will try to make sense of the world in the most unbanky way we can