CLIMAS - Southwest Climate Podcast: Recent Episodes
Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS)
El Niño and La Niña, the southwestern monsoon, tropical storm activity, increasing temperatures, fire risk and weather, drought and snowpack, and dwindling reservoir storage all pose challenges to the Southwest. In the ‘Southwest Climate Podcast’, we focus on details and nuance, but (generally) avoid excessive technical jargon. Our goal is to synthesize information and data from experts, forecasts, and models to provide listeners with a better understanding of climate and weather in the Southwest, as well as the lessons we can learn from recent events and long term experiences.
Recorded 07/10/2026, Aired 07/14/2026
In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast, hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins say ‘get ready’ for an interesting monsoon. Although the onset has had a sluggish start, the weekend into this week shows promise for a more active pattern in July. They review the precipitation event that happened at the start of the monsoon on 6/15 as well as the characteristics thus far. Also discussed is the strong El Niño taking shape and its influence in the region. Expectations are leaning toward a more optimistic yet not normal monsoon.
Mentions:
NWS-Tucson: Monsoon Tracker
Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping
CyclonicWx: Model Run - 500mb Height Anomaly - July 2026
Pivotal Weather: Model Run - Precipital Water
Southwest U.S. Station Climate Summaries
NOAA NWS Climate Prediction Center: Outlooks
Recorded 06/17/2026, Aired 06/18/2026
Hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins kick off the 2026 Monsoon in this month’s episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast. The timing couldn’t have been better for a rainy official start date this past Monday. They discuss the precipitation event and whether or not it was truly monsoonal. This sets up the discussion for the upcoming monsoon forecast and how a ‘Super’ El Niño might make for an active, yet non-typical monsoon setup. Lots of resources shared so that you can be ready to play the Monsoon Fantasy Forecast Game which starts at the end of this month - sign up today!
Mentions:
The University of Arizona Hydrology & Atmospheric Sciences cloud camera
NOAA Climate Prediction Center: Outlooks
North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)
IRI Seasonal Climate Forecasts
NOAA 2026 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook
NOAA Climate Prediction Center: ENSO
NOAA - Physical Sciences Laboratory: Multivariate ENSO Index
SW US Monsoon Precipitation Mapping - Past Seasons
Tropical Tidbits: Forecast Models
Recorded 05/13/2026, Aired 06/09/2026
In this special edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast, hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins have guest Chuck Maxwell join to talk about fire weather. Chuck brings his multi-decadal subject matter expertise from the world of fire management and answers all the burning questions from our hosts. Hear how fire management operations work in the Southwest and how climate conditions play into decision making. You’ll also get to hear what this summer might look like for fire and if the monsoon will bring any relief.
Mentions:
CLIMAS - Chuck Maxwell Profile
NIFC - Southwest Coordination Center (SWCC) Website
NIFC - National Interagency Coordination Center: Outlooks
CLIMAS - Weather and Climate Information for Southwest Wildfire Management
Southwest U.S. Burn Period Tracker
Welcome to this special episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast with guest hosts: Gigi Owen & Christina Greene. In this special episode, we bring you 3 guests that were all part of the CLIMAS Environment & Society Fellowship program over the past year. A lot of the science that CLIMAS researchers do is done collaboratively with and for our community partners so that the science that we do ends up being useful to decision-making and policy development and planning. Our Fellowship program offers University of Arizona graduate students the opportunity to take this kind of collaborative approach to address environmental and societal problems. Our fellows are here today to share more about their work and what they've been up to over the past year.
2025 CLIMAS Environment & Society FellowsLois Ann Polashenski
- We Are All Impacted by Pollution
- Overlooked Impacts of Circular Economies: Copper Slag Repurposing in Cottonwood, Arizona
Alyssa Rosenbaum
- From Lasagna to Lettuce: A Journey into Fresh Produce Safety
- Where Science and Community Meet
A.G. Steig
- In Fire’s Footprint
- Ecological Fire with Prescribed Burn Associations
Talitha Neesham-McTiernan (*Unable to attend podcast recording)
- Mapping the Missing Half?
Mapping in the meantime: on community-engaged research when the ground shifts
Recorded 05/15/2026, Aired 05/19/2026
In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast, hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins answer what a strong El Niño could mean for the monsoon. They do a quick recap of the first half of May. And then it’s off to the races with a look at: sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, ONI vs. RONI, ENSO’s scientific history, monsoon and its interaction with East Pacific tropical activity, then finally a winter preview. Should be a fun and interesting few seasons to watch unfold!
Also, Zack gives a plug for the Monsoon Fantasy Forecast Game which will include a new weekly tournament feature this year.
Mentions
NOAA CPC - ENSO Strength Probabilities
Tropical Tidbits
WebberWeather
NOAA CPC - Outlooks
Google - Weather Lab: Cyclones
Paper “North American Monsoon Response to Antecedent Soil Moisture and Snow in the Colorado Plateau”
Paper “Tropical Ocean Contributions to California’s Surprisingly Dry El Niño of 2015/16”
Recorded 04/03/2026, Aired 04/07/2026
Hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins go full coroner in this month’s episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast and do an autopsy of the record-setting March heat wave. Expect fluid dynamics, conservation of angular momentum, and level of divergence type of nerding for this deep dive. They go over the heat impacts to snowpack and forecasted streamflow, and the end of month precipitation event which looked monsoonal. Lastly there is some excitement for the upcoming super El Niño that’s brewing. Stick around on this long-ish one for a full explainer on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation - at the 1:02:43 mark.
Mentions:
Climate Perspectives - Western Region
Paper: “Synthesis of Publications on the Anomalous June 2021 Heat Wave in the Pacific Northwest of the United States and Canada”
USDA - NRCS: Snowpack & Streamflow
RainLog
NOAA - CPC: El Niño Southern Oscillation
NOAA - NCEI: Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
Recorded 03/03/2026, Aired 03/04/2026
In this month’s episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins rank their favorite months of the year - and June gets no love. They recap February’s weather which was high and dry but not much else. There’s a discussion on ENSO with a deep dive into a couple related papers of note. And with the end of meteorological winter they cover the bleak snowpack conditions in the west. Towards the end there is a look into the models to see what is on the horizon - including for the monsoon. Stick around for an announcement on the 2026 Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts game with a lot of new exciting features - you won’t want to miss!
Mentions:
NOAA - Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Discussion
Paper: “Southern Hemisphere Surface Warming Drives Southwestern U.S. Precipitation according to AI-Informed Climate Model Simulations”
Paper: “Anthropogenic Intensification of Cool-Season Precipitation Is Not Yet Detectable Across the Western United States”
USDA - Natural Resources Conservation Service: NWCC Interactive Map
NOAA - Climate Prediction Center: Season Forecasts
National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)
International Multi-Model Ensemble
Recorded 01/30/2026, Aired 02/02/2026Hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are kicking off 2026 with a look at this winter’s weird weather in this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast. They do a recap of the last couple of months of precip and temps. They do a review of large scale climate patterns - Madden–Julian Oscillation, Greenland Block - and get into a deep discussion about the Polar Vortex. They cover the not-so-great coverage of snowpack and look at the forecasts through peak season going forward. Rounding out the episode is the NOAA announcement on RONI (a topic of past episodes) and a preview of the AI focused episode that is in the works.
Mentions:
Paper: Arctic sea ice decline and continental cold anomalies: Upstream and downstream effects of Greenland blocking
Paper: What Is the Polar Vortex and How Does It Influence Weather?
- Figure 2
- Figure 1
Article: Stratospheric Warming Confirmed: Polar Vortex Collapse to Bring Major Weather Disruption in the Coming Weeks
Article: February forecast calls for more polar vortex mayhem
Article: Snow Drought in the West Reaches Record Levels
NOAA NWS - Climate Prediction Center: Forecasts
NOAA NWS - Public Information Statement: Implementing a Relative Oceanic Niño Index effective February 1, 2026
NOAA NWS - Information Circular: Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI)
Paper: Northern Hemisphere Wintertime Teleconnections from the 2023–24 El Niño Offset by Background SST Trends
Recorded 12/19/2025, Aired 12/22/2025
In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast episode, hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are feeling good about the warmer than normal December temps. They start out with a look at recent conditions, including the persistent ridge keeping us dry this month. This leads to a review of a paper on the Heat Dome of 2023 - and what all this warmth means for snowpack in the west. They give their End of Year review of heat, fire and precipitation in 2025. Rounding out the episode is a telling of each of their picks for the Climate Story of the Year for the Southwest.
Mentions:
Climate Anomaly Maps and Tables
Paper: “The longest-lasting 2023 western North American heat wave was fueled by the record-warm Atlantic Ocean”
USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service - Snowpack Map
Southwest U.S. Station Climate Summaries
SWCC: Southwest Year-To-Date Wildland Fire Activity
Webinar: Globe/Miami Flooding Event of September 2025: Weather and Climate Overview
NOAA NWS: Climate Prediction Center - Outlooks
NOAA NWS: North American Multi-Model Ensemble
International Multi-Model Ensemble
Recorded 11/07/2025, Aired 11/10/2025
Hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are enjoying the recent fall weather in this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast episode. The hosts recap October which had some pretty interesting storm activity. There is a summary of the hurricane season - including the category 5 Melissa that had devastating impacts in the Caribbean. They cover the fall to winter transition patterns. Then the podcast ends with a discussion on the weak developing La Niña which may or may not relieve the drought pressure with some winter precipitation.
Mentions:
NOAA - Climate Prediction Center: Forecasts
Southwest U.S. Station Climate Summaries
Video - Hurricane Hunters pass through the eye of Melissa
NOAA - National Hurricane Center
NOAA - Climate Prediction Center: ENSO
National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME): JFM Precipitation
***If you receive an error message on any of the NOAA websites, try using an incognito browser window
Recorded 10/03/2025, Aired 10/06/2025
In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins kick it off by saying goodbye to the monsoon. They do a recap of the season with a focus on last month's rain events. September was interesting to say the least - this leads to a philosophical discussion on whether it is the same flavor as the rest of the monsoon. The hosts tie up the episode with what’s on the horizon for this coming winter & the ENSO forecast.
Mentions:
Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping
Southwest U.S. Station Climate Summaries
Monsoon Precipitation Totals with Rankings 2025
NOAA NWS - Climate Prediction Center
NOAA NWS - Climate Prediction Center: ENSO
North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)
August 2025 SW Climate Podcast - At Wits EndRecorded 8/29/2025, Aired 9/2/2025
We are over two-thirds of the way through this year’s monsoon and in this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins have a bit of a therapy session. They do a round up of July and August which they call the most uninteresting monsoon. There is a deep dive on what is driving this picture of night and day between Arizona and New Mexico. They give a look towards September with all eyes on the eastern Pacific tropical activity as the wildcard. They eventually learn to appreciate the subtleties and accept their relationship with the Southwest Monsoon.
Mentions:
Monsoon Season Station Climate Summaries
Paper: Dominant patterns of US warm season precipitation variability in a fine resolution observational record, with focus on the southwest
North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)
University of Arizona's Weather Research and Forecasting Model (UA WRF)
SW US Monsoon Precipitation Mapping - Past Seasons
NOAA - NWS: Climate Prediction Center
Recorded 07/23/2025, Aired 07/24/2025
Hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins in this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast focus on the current unusual monsoon for the entire episode. All the ingredients are there - but it is not your typical season. They cover the southwesterly flow, what the heck is going on with the four corners high, and the low that’s been sitting off the coast of California. They dive into a recent rain event that was attributed to a Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) and how the monsoon has done so far across Arizona and New Mexico which is a tale of 2 states. Lastly, hear how the hosts are doing on their predictions for the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts game.
You can still play if you haven’t signed up yet. August Predictions for the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecast game are due next Thursday 7/31 before midnight - See if you can beat Mike this next month!
Mentions:
NWS - Tucson: Dewpoint Tracker
Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping
NWS - Climate Prediction Center: Outlooks
North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME): August Precipitation
TropicalTidbits: GFS Model
Recorded 06/24/2025, Aired 06/26/2025
In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast we are in the final countdown to the monsoon. To get us started, host Zack Guido quizzes host Mike Crimmins on his climatology knowledge. They then cover this past month’s heat ramp up, take a walk down monsoon history over the past few seasons, and look at past conditions as a precursor to get the monsoon party started. Then close out with our current conditions and what the forecasts are saying. Will the tropical storm activity be this year’s wildcard?!?
Don’t forget to sign up and make your predictions for the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts game. Forecasts for July must be entered by June 30 at 11:59 PM.
Mentions:
Paper: “Is the North American monsoon self-limiting?”
Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping
30 Day-ish Climate Tracking for Southwest U.S.
2025 Hurricane Forecast by Xubin Zeng and Kyle Davis - University of Arizona
NOAA NWS - Climate Prediction Center: Season Forecasts
North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)
International Multi Model Ensemble
ECMWF: Run AI models yourself from ECMWF open data
Recorded 5/16/2025, Aired 05/20/2025
The Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are ready to start counting down the days to this year’s monsoon season. But before they get into the monsoon preview - they do a final winter recap and review April and May’s weather patterns. They also cover the fire season so far, and Mike gets to share on his upcoming paper “Changing Climate, Changing Fire: Understanding Ecosystem-Specific Fire-Climate Dynamics in Arizona and New Mexico”.
Stick around for the monsoon discussion at the end so you can be informed - or at least entertained - in time for the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts Game starting next month!
Mentions:
Paper: “Glacial reduction of the North American Monsoon via surface cooling and atmospheric ventilation”
National Interagency Coordination Center - National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook
NOAA - Climate Prediction Center: 3 Month Seasonal Outlook
North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) - Precipitation Forecast
AZ State Climate Office Monthly Webinar Series - NWS Tucson Presentation: 2025 Monsoon Outlook
International Multi-Model Ensemble (IMME) - Precipitation Forecast
Recorded 3/28/2025, Aired 4/1/2025
For this month's Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins deliver a fully robust episode. They review the abysmal winter season, breeze through our ‘meh’ March, cover the snowpack conditions and drought situation - which all could lead up to a potentially active fire hazard season. Stick around for the deep dive into the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and what to expect for the seasonal forecasts into the monsoon season.
Mentions:
Climate Science Applications Program - University of Arizona Cooperative Extension: Station Maps
USDA - NRCS: National Water and Climate Center Interactive Map
Paper: Recent Upper Colorado River Streamflow Declines Driven by Loss of Spring Precipitation”
NICC: National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook
U.S. Drought Monitor
PDO Paper: “A Pacific Interdecadal Climate Oscillation with Impacts on Salmon Production"
PDO Paper: “The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Revisited”
NOAA - Climate Prediction Center: Seasonal Outlook Precipitation (JAS)
North American Multi-Model Ensemble: Seasonal Forecast Precipitation (JAS)
Recorded 2/14/2025, Aired 2/18/2025
It’s a new year and in this month’s episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are looking for good news. Zack gives a tour of recent statistics for the past few months and Mike goes over the related atmospheric happenings. They cover La Niña and the climatology of the Southwest during this winter season. Can we shake off this persistent dry spell and bring on a magnificent March? Lastly they cover the Santa Ana winds which played a part in the destructive L.A. fires and begin to delve into AI weather modeling and forecasting.
Mentions:
ENSO Blog: February 2025 La Niña update: La Niña today, gone tomorrow?
Paper: Changes in atmospheric rivers and moisture transport over the Northeast Pacific and western North America in response to ENSO diversity
Scripps: Center For Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E)
Southeast Regional Climate Center (SERCC): Climate Perspectives - West
Paper: Ignitions explain more than temperature or precipitation in driving Santa Ana wind fires
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University Climate School - ENSO Plumes
Billy Idol - State Line: Live At The Hoover Dam
Recorded 12/06/2024
Aired 12/10/2024
In this month’s episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins slow-roll into the winter season. They look back on 2024 followed by what happened in November and why - including the Atmospheric River event on the west coast. They dive into a recent paper that interrogates the expected intensification of cool season precipitation in the west. And close out with a teaser look at the La Niña outlook and precipitation forecast with a highlight of the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI).
Mentions:
Paper: “Anthropogenic Intensification of Cool-Season Precipitation Is Not Yet Detectable Across the Western United States”
ENSO Blog: “Can a little La Niña pack a big precipitation punch?”
Related Paper: “A Relative Sea Surface Temperature Index for Classifying ENSO Events in a Changing Climate”
North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)
NOAA - Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Recorded 11/1/2024
Aired 11/5/2024
The Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are grateful that fall is (finally) here. In this month’s episode, they unpack the persistent heat that hung around through October as well as blocking patterns. They discuss the two major hurricanes that made landfall - Helene and Milton. And get into the current ENSO forecast which is pointing to a weak La Niña. Lastly, they dive into a couple papers as a way to think differently about ENSO and winter as they look ahead. Buckle up as it could be a wild ride!
Mentions:
The International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University Climate School: ENSO Forecast
NOAA - CPC: El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
NOAA - ENSO Blog: Revisiting La Nina and winter snowfall
Climate.gov - ENSO Graphic: Typical late fall through early spring upper level jet stream positions associated with moderate to strong La Niña and El Niño events
NOAA - CPC - ENSO Graphic: North American Winter Features
Paper 1: Reinterpreting ENSO's Role in Modulating Impactful Precipitation Events in California
Paper 2: How Well Do Seasonal Climate Anomalies Match Expected El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Impacts?
NOAA - CPC: Three-Month Outlooks
Recorded 9/20/2024
Aired 9/24/2024
In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack ‘Generational’ Guido and Mike “Dewpoint’ Crimmins break down what the heck happened to the second half of the monsoon this year. They unpack the recent Atlantic tropical activity, or lack thereof, as well as any hope for the Pacific to bring some moisture to the Southwest. They end with some coverage of the rest of September and a look into the early winter outlooks. This episode is not without controversy - so download / stream today!
Generational Count = 11
Mentions:
Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping
Southwest U.S. Station Climate Summaries
NOAA Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor System (MRMS)
The More Extreme Nature of North American Monsoon Precipitation in the Southwestern United States as Revealed by a Historical Climatology of Simulated Severe Weather Events
RainLog
CoCoRaHS
NOAA - CPC: Outlooks
NWS - Tucson: Avg Daily Dewpoint Tracker
IRI, Columbia University Climate School: ENSO Forecast
North American Multi-Model Ensemble
Recorded 8/16//2024
Aired 8/20/2024
Now that we are over halfway through the 2024 monsoon season, this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins don their chef hats and lay out the main ingredients of the monsoon. They give a recap of recent rain events, answer the question of whether or not the characteristics of convective storm dynamics have changed, and offer their thoughts on what is on the horizon for September. Great timing as 8/31 is your last chance to join in the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts game this year!
Mentions:
RainLog
“Understanding the Dominant Sources and Tracks of Moisture for Summer Rainfall in the Southwest United States”
NWS - Tucson: Monsoon Tracker
Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping
"Intensification of the North American Monsoon Rainfall as Observed From a Long-Term High-Density Gauge Network"
"Observed humidity trends in dry regions contradict climate models"
NWS - Climate Prediction Center: Outlooks
Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts Game
AZ Central “Why is the monsoon so unpredictable? It takes a lot to make a good thunderstorm”
Recorded 7/19/2024
Aired 7/23/2024
Get ready for a big episode day as this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins kick off the monsoon season. The crew cover the evolution of the current monsoon phases from onset to where we are today with stats and analysis. And there is even a bit of a philosophical introspection on the data and sources (do you believe?). Your hosts share what they have learned along the way - but stick around to the end to get their hot take on what is coming next.
Also - It’s not too late to sign up for the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecast Game as there are monthly prizes this year!
Mentions:
Arizona Institute of Resilience - Power Forecasting Group
-
Monsoon Forecasting Discussion Blog
-
Contact to get on mailing list = Patrick Bunn, ptwbunn@arizona.edu
Map - Percent of Average Precipitation (AZ & NM)
RainLog
Climate Reference Network
Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts Game
NOAA - Climate Prediction Center: Outlooks
It’s June - which means in this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast, hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins can officially talk about the monsoon. Before they deep dive into the 2024 monsoon season, they cover recent conditions from last month, the fire risk and its relationship to the monsoon, and then get right down to business. The stakes are high with a beer going to which host betters the other in v.4 of the Monsoon Fantasy Forecast game this year (sign up today).
Recorded: Friday, June 7, 2024
Aired: Tuesday, June 11, 2024
Mentions:
Southwest Coordination Center - Outlooks
National Interagency Coordination Center - Outlooks
Drought.gov - Soil Moisture
North American Multi-Model Ensemble
NOAA - Climate Prediction Center
Tropical Tidbits - GFS Forecast Model
Welcome to this special episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast with guest hosts: Gigi Owen & Christina Greene. In this special episode, we bring you 3 guests that were all part of the CLIMAS Environment & Society Fellowship program over the past year. A lot of the science that CLIMAS researchers do is done collaboratively with and for our community partners so that the science that we do ends up being useful to decision-making and policy development and planning. Our Fellowship program offers University of Arizona graduate students the opportunity to take this kind of collaborative approach to address environmental and societal problems. Our fellows are here today to share more about their work and what they've been up to over the past year.
2023 CLIMAS Environment & Society Fellows
Hannah Friedrich
“Mapping tarps and stories to spotlight inequitable disaster recovery”
Majerle Lister
“Re-Thinking Land and History: Working with Navajo Mountain Soil Water Conservation District Members”
Lucas Belury
“Flood Justice in South Texas”
Talia Anderson *Unable to attend podcast recording
“What's going on with the rains?”
It’s that time and we are 6 weeks away from the start of the 2024 monsoon season. In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast, hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins cover the end of the winter season, the transition month of April and give an early preview to the monsoon. Will the shift from El Niño to La Niña make for a dry or wet monsoon or active hurricane season? Will Zack break Mike’s eternal optimism with what the forecast models are saying? Listen in so you can be ready to play the Monsoon Fantasy Forecast Game!
Recorded: May 3, 2024
Aired: May 8, 2024
Mentions:
University of Arizona Cooperative Extension - Climate Sciences Applications
Climate.gov ENSO blog - “Untangling the winter 2023-24 precipitation forecast ball of yarn”
Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping
University of Arizona News - “Brace for a very active hurricane season this year, warn UArizona forecasters”
NWS - CPC North American Multi-Model Ensemble
In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins look back at winter to share insights on the late-loaded precipitation, as well as current snowpack conditions and streamflow forecasts. The hosts discuss how El Niño played out as it starts its transition to La Niña and what to look out for this coming spring setting up this year’s monsoon season. And stay tuned for news on this year's Monsoon Fantasy competition on the next Pod!
Recorded: Friday, Mar 29, 2024
Aired: Tuesday, Apr 2, 2024
February 2024 SW Climate Podcast – El Niño’s Getting LateIt’s the new year and Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are back to give the lowdown on what’s happening in regards to the Southwest Climate in this month’s Podcast. They cover this past winter’s three-month pattern and overall conditions. Then they get global with the current state of El Niño and its influence on atmospheric rivers and other precip events seen in the first half of February. There’s a quick look at the resulting snowpack - which is an important feature of the west’s water supply. And finally they round it out with a look to the rest of the month which may or may not be the rally we need for a typical wet El Niño before La Niña comes back around. Mentions:ENSO Blog: “February 2024 ENSO Outlook: All along the La Niña WATCH-tower”https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/february-2024-enso-outlook-all-along-la-nina-watch-towerPaper: “Observed Hydrologic Impacts of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers in the Salt and Verde River Basins of Arizona, United States”https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR020778National Weather Service - Climate Prediction Center: Outlookshttps://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/USDA - Natural Resources Conservation Service: Snow and Water Interactive Maphttps://www.nrcs.usda.gov/resources/data-and-reports/snow-and-water-interactive-mapNational Interagency Coordination Center: Fire Outlookhttps://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive-services/outlooksCLIMAS Member(s): Zack GuidoMichael Crimmins
December 2023 SW Climate Podcast – Special MailBag EpisodeZack Guido and Mike Crimmins sharpened their pencils, hit the library, and did their homework to bring you a very special MailBag episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast for this month. Thank you to all the listeners for sending in your questions and for trying to stump our hosts. This episode is not to be missed - so grab a cup of coffee and get ready to be schooled before heading off for the end of semester break. And have a Happy Holidays from the Southwest Climate Podcast crew!Mentions:Question 1: We are based in Northeast New Mexico in the I-25 corridor. What is the predominant drivers of summer weather and precipitation. Are we full-on monsoonal, more influenced by plains state weather patterns, or somewhere in between? DanThe climate of the US Southwest, Sheppard et. al. 2002Question 2: There seemed to be an abundance of DCAPE this season, which is perhaps related to all the strong winds and hail we had this monsoon. what is DCAPE? SarahQuestion 3: It seems that an albedo effect after a good snowpack tends to influence/add to a poor monsoon, to some degree, through delayed surface heating… Does that hold any water or stick to the wall? MarkObserved Influence of Soil Moisture on the North American Monsoon: An Assessment Using the Stepwise Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment Method, Wang et. al. 2021Question 4: I’m wondering whether there’s a clear “global warming” signal yet in the monsoon? SarahIntensification of the North American Monsoon Rainfall as Observed From a Long-Term High-Density Gauge Network, Demaria et. al. 2019Weakening of the North American monsoon with global warming, Pascale et. al. 2017Increasing Future Precipitation in the Southwestern US in the Summer and Its Contrasting Mechanism With Decreasing Precipitation in the Spring, Liang et. al. 2022The North American Monsoon precipitation response to climate warming at convection-permitting scales, Wallace et. al. 2023Future Land Precipitation Changes Over the North American Monsoon Region Using CMIP5 and CMIP6 Simulations, Hernandez et. al. 2022Question 5: We're wondering if anyone is studying whether climate change could eliminate the North American Monsoon as we know it and leave Arizona high and dry during the annual monsoon. Bruce & Joanna Glacial reduction of the North American Monsoon via surface cooling and atmospheric ventilation, Tierney (2nd) et. al. 2017Question 6: Like many people in the Tucson area I'm engaged in a lot of outdoor activities, and during monsoon these activities get pushed further up the mountains for temperature reasons. One thing that is always a complicating factor is trying to read the weather pattern to determine whether we're going to get dumped on or caught in a storm. Some clouds pass right over without a peep, others seem to become a problem quite suddenly. Are there a few tips you can share for how to read the different monsoon clouds? Neal in Tucson CLIMAS Member(s): Zack GuidoMichael Crimmins
November 2023 SW Climate Podcast – Winter is ComingIn this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are back from Thanksgiving to give a recap of November, which was not much to write home about. They start gearing us up for the next few months by taking a look back at previous winters and give a glimpse into this coming season as far as impacts, synoptic features, and large-scale drivers. The team rounds it out with a deep dive into El Niño and the complex forecasting that may or may not bring us some needed winter precipitation. Also - the monsoon is gone but not forgotten!Last Call! The Southwest Climate Podcast is looking to do a special MailBag episode for the end of 2023! We are asking for listeners to send in their questions - Can be anything Southwest Climate related or try and stump the hosts by sending in your inquiries and postulations at uaclimas@gmail.com. Mentions: U.S. Drought Monitor: Current Map - WestNational Weather Service - Climate Prediction Center: OutlookNational Weather Service - Climate Prediction Center: North American Multi-Model EnsembleUSDA - NRCS: Map - Snow Water Equivalent “Investigating Runoff Efficiency in Upper Colorado River Streamflow Over Past Centuries”Climate.gov - ENSO Blog: “S(no)w pain, S(no)w gain: How does El Niño affect snowfall over North America?”CLIMAS Member(s): Michael CrimminsZack Guido
Goodbye, adios, sayonara - In this month’s podcast, the crew is ready to put the 2023 monsoon in the rearview mirror. Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins give this year’s monsoon season recap and the only good thing to say is that ‘at least it was not 2020’ :( They cover what happened in September, review temperature and precipitation as well as the tropical storm season that prevented a full out non-soon. We also get to hear the results of the Monsoon Madness game winners and take a look forward to a strong-leaning El Niño coming this winter. Attention! For the first time for the Southwest Climate Podcast we are requesting listeners to send in their questions for a special MailBag episode in December. Try and stump the hosts by sending in your inquiries and postulations at uaclimas@gmail.com. Mentions:RainLogSouthwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation MappingNOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) ModelSouthern Oscillation Index (SOI)North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) CLIMAS Member(s): Zack GuidoMichael Crimmins
In wrapping up a double-punch storm here in August ‘23, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are here to deconstruct the current monsoon season. They discuss various analogs to this year, cover Hurricane Hilary that made its way up through the western U.S. as well as the potential for additional tropical storms to bring more precipitation to the Southwest. Lastly they end on their predictions for September and into winter. Good luck to all the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts participants out there!
Mentions:
Pima County Regional Flood Control District - Rainfall Map RainLog Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping National Weather Service - Tucson: Monsoon Climate Perspectives @NWSPhoenix - Outflow Radar Paper: “The Contribution of Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclones to the Rainfall Climatology of the Southwest United States” CPC: 1 Month Outlook - Sept
{"Generational" Count = 1}
CLIMAS Member(s):
Michael Crimmins Zack Guido
Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins bring you the July '23 edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast to tease out what the heck is happening with this year's monsoon. They cover some of the record-breaking heat in July, look back at the historical record of past monsoons to find an analog to this year, weigh in on whether any or all can be attributed to the El Niño flex, and lay out their predictions for the Monsoon Fantasy game. They may not have any definitive answers, but at least you'll get an insightful look at this summer's puzzling monsoon.
Mentions:
Arizona Station-based Drought Tracker Climate Perspectives Eric Webb on Twitter @webberweather North American Multi-Model Ensemble Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts The International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University Climate School - ENSO Forecast
CLIMAS Member(s):
Michael Crimmins Zack Guido
If you aren't thinking about the 2023 Monsoon Season, this Kick Off episode for the June 2023 Southwest Climate Podcast is just what you need. Zach Guido and Mike Crimmins are here to dive into the May / June review, a look at the current wildfire season, a brief chat about drought, then get into the recent Tex-Mex Heat Dome and dive right into the nitty gritty of the upcoming '23 Monsoon Season. They follow it up with an overview of the flex of El Niño, some hurricane looks - and last but not least - Monsoon Predictions.
If you haven't signed up for the Monsoon Fantasy game yet - This is your alarm clock! Forecasts for July must be cast by June 30 at 11:59 PM! Sign up today to play!
Mentions:
RainLog Southwest Coordination Center (SWCC) 'Wavy' Jet Stream - Twitter Monsoon Fantasy
["Generational" Count = 7]
CLIMAS Member(s):
Zack Guido Michael Crimmins
Zach Guido and Mike Crimmins are back in the May 2023 edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast where they are asking the real questions: Has it been a quiet spring? What was with that Monsoon-y Too Soon Maysoon? Why is it so hot in the Southwest? What are the models showing for the upcoming Monsoon season? And how come those models are throwing shade? Join the crew as they do a deep dive into the data to give their answers, explainers as well as a bit of the usual banter.
Mentions:
CoCoRaHS RainLog NOAA Blog: "May 2023 ENSO update: El Niño knocking on the door" WMO: "Global temperatures set to reach new records in next five years" James Hansen: "Global Temperature in 2022"
CLIMAS Member(s):
Zack Guido Michael Crimmins
In the November episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido check in with some extended weather/transition events over the last few months, and how this relates to monsoon-like vs. fall and winter events. They work through a set of possible scenarios for winter, and what we might expect with the current (triple dip!) La Nina event already underway, but with a likely transition to ENSO-neutral by early 2023. They bring back the 'hazard report' to talk through the kinds of weather events and hazards we might see over winter, and wrap with a discussion of the winter forecasts and what we'll be watching over winter to track how the season progresses. They also chat briefly about Ben McMahan (that's me!) changing jobs and having left UA in October (I'll keep helping with the podcast for who knows how long, but it's too much fun each month to let go easily, so we're exploring our options!).
CLIMAS Member(s):
Ben McMahan Michael Crimmins Zack Guido
A note on the podcast, especially to those in our UA community that are grieving.
We mourn the loss of our friend and colleague, Tom Meixner, who was killed on the University of Arizona campus on October 5th, 2022. We recorded the podcast the day before, and our tone reflects our joyful enthusiasm for weather and climate in the Southwest, something that Tom certainly shared. We wanted to acknowledge this tragic event and express our heartfelt condolences to his family, friends, and colleagues.
We’ll miss you, Tom.
In the October 2022 edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss where 2022 stands in relation to other years, landing on 2022 as a sneaky candidate for one of the best SW-regional monsoons, ever. They talk through the various ways one might assess monsoon performance, what happened in September, and how to make sense of all the lingering storm activity in early October, despite the monsoon being officially over. They wrap with a quick nod to winter and the incoming triple-dip La Niña, and what this might mean for the Southwest this winter.
In the September episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido catch up on where the monsoon ranks through August, and what September might bring (and how that might affect those rankings). After a tour of regional stats and how various parts of the Southwest are faring with the monsoon, Zack and Mike take a deeper dive into some comparisons with previous monsoon years, to see where 2022 stacks up, and how one might go about identifying the top 3-4 monsoons, based on coverage, intensity, and how sustained the precipitation was in that year. They wrap with a quick discussion of monsoon fantasy and what the forecasts hint at for the rest of September and into Fall.
In this episode of The Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to talk through the last month of monsoon activity, how the monsoon is performing around the region (and at their houses). They follow up with some discussions of MCV/MCS dynamics based on a listener question and try to make the case whether this is a good monsoon or a bad monsoon. Finally, they dive back into the monsoon fantasy game to see how the first month looks with a few days to go.
Two notes:
Monsoon Fantasy Game: If you are reading this (or listening) before Aug 1, you still have time to log your August guesses for the Monsoon Fantasy Game: monsoonfantasy.arizona.edu/
Listener Survey: We have a short (5 min) survey for our listeners (or prospective listeners) and would very much appreciate some brief and anonymous info that will let us know how folks use the podcast, and what we can do to improve it. Find the survey at: tinyurl.com/swclimatepod
In the June 2022 episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido apologize for the extended (and unintentional) break from podcasting, before diving into to a wide ranging "catch-up" episode that recaps winter and spring conditions, discusses regional hazards we see in spring into summer, and touches on the forecast and outlook for the summer...and the monsoon! They wrap with a discussion of the monsoon, whether this year could ever live up to last year and what led to last year's conditions, before addressing the excitement that a few outlooks have caused, and the early storms that have been building to the south. They also discuss the return of the Monsoon Fantasy Game and talk about how you can play and test your forecast skills against the "experts". Happy Monsoon!
For more information on the monsoon, be sure to check out the updated Monsoon Tracker from NWS Tucson: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/twc/monsoon/monsoon_tracker.php.
Monsoon Fantasy Forecast Game
The monsoon fantasy forecast game is back! The game is largely the same. You make rainfall forecasts at five cities each month. You score points based on the accuracy and riskiness of your forecasts. Here’s what is new this year:
You can make your forecasts for the month until midnight the final day of the previous month. For example, you have until June 30 at 11:59 PM to make your forecasts for July. Same goes for August and September.
There are Amazon gift card prizes for the top 3 finishers at values of $400, $300, and $200, courtesy of the Arizona Institutes for Resilient Environments and Societies.
Mike, Zack, and Ben will be talking about the monsoon and the leaderboard each month on the Southwest Climate Podcast.
For more details or to play: https://monsoonfantasy.arizona.edu/home
Calling last year’s monsoon fantasy players - Can you spare 2 minutes to help?
If you played last year, the game team would be grateful for two minutes of your time to answer five simple questions. Responses are anonymous. They will help them publish a description of the game.
https://uarizona.co1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_bd88HC6pAoWjGwS
This episode is a break from the Southwest Climate Podcast, but Zack and Mike will be back in April to talk all things Southwest Climate.
In this special episode, Gigi Owen sits down for one on one conversations with Moriah Bailey Stephenson, Simone Williams, and Lea Schram von Haupt (the 2021 CLIMAS E&S Grad Fellows) to chat with each of them about their reflections and perspectives and their fellowship experience. You can also find more information about their projects in blog posts at climas.arizona.edu/blog.
CLIMAS Member(s):
Bailey Stephenson Ben McMahan Gigi Owen Lea Schram von Haupt Simone A. Williams
In the Mar 2022 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido dive into a recap of winter (so far) in the Southwest. First, recap winter to date, and put it in the context of a double-dip La Niña, including precipitation totals, temperature, and snowpack. Then they take a closer look at the phases of the PNA (Pacific/North American pattern) and how this links to ENSO/La Niña and the weather conditions this winter. Finally, they revisit temperature to consider just how "cold" it has actually been, and preview a closer look at fire outlooks, snowpack, and water supply in upcoming podcasts.
CLIMAS Member(s):
Ben McMahan Michael Crimmins Zack Guido
In the January 2022 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido dive into the winter weather so far, tracking how this lines up with expectations in a La Niña year, and what to track this winter to look for La Nina effects - temperature, snow water equivalent, streamflow forecasts, etc. They also take a closer look at the jetstream and the role this plays in winter weather in the Southwest, and where these recent events (and the monsoon) leave us in terms of drought. They wrap with some discussion of the outlooks for the next month/season, as well as some obligatory pining for the monsoon.
Discussed in this episode:
The Climatology of Synoptic-Scale Ascent over Western North America: A Perspective on Storm Tracks (Loreau & Horel, 2012)
https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00203.1
In the December/Holiday edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down for a quick look at the weather of the last month or so, some recent events bringing winter storms to the region, and what a La Nina might bring in the rest of 2021 and through the rest of winter 2022. They also reflect on 2021 and memorable events in the Southwest, and not surprisingly, this brings them both back to monsoon 2021. Thanks again to everyone who listens and supports the podcast, we hope everyone has a happy, restful, and safe holiday. See you in 2022!
In the November edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido look back to monsoon 2021 to do a recap of the seasonal totals. They are joined by Paul Iniguez, the Science and Operations Officer for the National Weather Service office in Phoenix, to take a closer look at the 2021 monsoon, how it stacked up around the region, and to hear a bit more about how the NWS offices work across the monsoon. This is a single focus episode - see the Oct 2021 episode for the normal monthly roundup and recap. Watch this space: https://www.weather.gov/psr/eventsummaries for the 2021 monsoon recap from NWS Phoenix, as well as some detailed storm event reports from across the season (and year).
In the October 2021 edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido reconvene after a long pause to revisit recent conditions in September and October, dive into what ENSO and La Niña might have in store for the Southwest, and what the Double Dip is and why it's more likely in back to back La Niñas. For monsoon fantasy players, they recap the monsoon game and how the leaderboard shook up in the final day in the first segment. Production note: We recorded two podcasts this week, the standard monthly recap (this podcast) and a monsoon recap extravaganza with Paul Iniguez of the NWS office up in Phoenix. Look for that monsoon recap podcast in a few days (also in this feed) and keep an eye on the NWS pages for their in-depth monsoon recaps.
In the September Edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to revisit last month's discussion of a generational monsoon. They check in around the region to see how various locations are faring and discuss the interesting patterns they've seen in monsoon activity so far. They put the totals to date into climatological context and rankings, to see who is experiencing a generational monsoon, vs. areas that are "just" above average (or who are lagging behind). They wrap with a discussion of "Is the Monsoon Over" - and talk about the reasons why you may/may not think so, and what the transition season means for the last few weeks of the monsoon (and the final seasonal rankings).
In the August 2021 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss the "monsoon that comes to you" (i.e. it's just about everywhere, and it just keeps coming!). They discuss the (record) July for some areas, as well as the well above average conditions around much of the region. They also deconstruct the elements that are feeding into this persistent monsoon rainfall and take a deep dive into a few of the events that have contributed to impressive totals. They wrap up with a discussion of outlooks for the rest of the season, whether any stations might hit record monsoon totals (Tucson is definitely in the running), and what this has meant for the monsoon fantasy game (suffice to say, the guesses for July did not anticipate the record wet conditions).
Resources Discussed:
https://cals.arizona.edu/climate/misc/SWMonsoonMaps/current/swus_monsoon.html
https://www.weather.gov/psr/StormReportfor2126July2021
https://monsoon.environment.arizona.edu/
https://rainlog.org/map
https://monsoonfantasy.arizona.edu/home
In the (mid/late) July edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido are back at it, given all that happened with the monsoon since early July. First, they dive into monsoon conditions around the region, to put them into climatological perspective, while discussing some of the defining characteristics of the monsoon. Next they grapple with the question: Is this shaping up to be an all-timer for July, given all the rain that's already fallen (and what is in the forecast for the rest of July)? The answer is complicated (tune in to hear where they land on this). Finally, they look a bit at the forecasts and outlooks for the upcoming weeks and months and remind us about the monsoon fantasy game that we are running this monsoon.
A reminder from the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts game:
We pose this question to you: will August be wet, dry, or in between at stations around the Southwest? So far, the monsoon has been wet in many places, with an active monsoon pattern over the next few days likely to add more to the totals. This is our final reminder: you will only be able to make your August forecasts up until 11:59 pm tomorrow night, Friday (Jul 23). We then lock the forecasts so that you can't use the 7-day weather forecast to inform your estimates.
Submit your August Guesses: https://monsoonfantasy.arizona.edu/home
In the June/early-July edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss weather and climate in the Southwest. They start with June heatwaves, and where these sit in comparison to climatology/normal for the Southwest, and how they differ from the record heat waves seen in the Pacific Northwest. They transition to a discussion of the early(ish) onset of the monsoon this year, and whether this bodes well for a better monsoon than last year (frankly, this is a low bar to clear). Finally, they recap their own (forecast) guesses for July and run through the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecast game we are trying out this year. https://monsoonfantasy.arizona.edu/
We plan to do another podcast in mid/late July to see where things stand with the monsoon, but so far, so good (or at least better than last year).
In the May 2021 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss a range of issues related to that most pressing question this time of year - "What's the Monsoon Forecast?!". They run through the last month of weather, what we might expect from June given historical patterns and extremes, and how much faith we can put in forecasts this time of year (hint, it's tough to make a good monsoon forecast). The podcast wraps with a reminder about the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecast game. We piloted the game last year, and this year there's a new and improved interface and some fun prizes. Stay tuned to the end of the podcast (or watch this space) for details on the game (how to play, prizes, etc.).
In the April 2021 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido jump into winter weather and assessments of (drought) conditions. First, they look back at winter so far and see how it stacks up to recent historical totals. Next, they take a closer look at the relationship between summer and winter precipitation, and the various phase combinations (wet/dry, dry/wet, wet/wet, dry/dry). They turn to some paleoclimate expertise to help them think about these patterns, as well as how drought has been defined (seasonal drought, megadrought, etc.), and how these terms get used in science communication and the media.
In the Mar 2021 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss the winter in the Southwest, and whether it lived up to expectations for a La Niña winter. They also go over streamflow, snowpack, and start a deeper dive into reservoirs, based on a listener question from last month (send in your questions if you have them!). They dabble a bit in the seasonal forecasts and talk about some of the key things they will be watching over the next 3-4 months, namely how fire season evolves, and when we can (reasonably) start looking ahead towards monsoon onset. They wrap up with a brief preview of monsoon-game 2.0, and hint at what we have planned.
In the February 2021 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido jump back into discussing winter conditions in the Southwest. This includes what happened so far in 2021 with a few runs of storms that affected parts of Arizona and New Mexico. This also includes the role that La Niña may be playing this winter (snowpack, streamflow forecasts, rain/snow events, etc.), and how this compares to previous winters and La Niña events. They also discuss what we might expect for the rest of the "wet" winter season (really, Feb-Mar) in the arid Southwest.
In the Dec 2020 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss drought, La Nina, and what to expect (or at least hope for) in 2021. First, they recap the event that swept through on Dec 9-11, to talk through how different locations in the region fared in terms of precip. Next, they transition into the drought situation, which is currently looking pretty dire for the region - and discuss 'just how much worse can it get' - given much of the region is at Exceptional Drought (D4, the highest category on the US Drought Monitor), looking to some past events for comparison. They wrap things up with some 2021 predictions - things they think could (or hope might) happen in 2021.
In the November episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss weather and climate in the Southwest, including what we might expect over the next few months. They discuss La Niña and what this might mean for the Southwest, including implications of La Niña following a much drier than average monsoon and what the historical record says about just how unprecedented this pattern might be (dry monsoon, dry winter). Finally, they take a closer look at fire, and how the season has progressed in the Southwest, given the lack of rain, and what we might watch for going into next year's fire season.
In the October 2020 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido open up with something fun - with a quick rundown of the Monsoon Game 2020, congratulating Mike (for his CLIMAS podcast team victory, with 33 points) and Aaryn O with his overall victory (56 points). Next, they look back on the monsoon, and try to make sense of some of the reasons that might have contributed to the widespread below average (or even record driest) conditions in the Southwest. They take a closer look at some of the mechanisms that might be in play and review a few papers that address the role of climate change in a changing monsoon. Finally, they look forward (begrudgingly) at winter 2020-2021, which is lining up to be either a moderate or strong La Niña, and the discuss the implications of forecasts for a drier than average winter stacking on top of a very dry monsoon.
In the September 2020 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido reflect on this year's monsoon. The monsoon is not over, but at this point it is clear it will come in on the dry side of things. They discuss some of the reasons why, and how this below average monsoon compares across the region and to other years. Zack also recounts some of our Slack/text conversations about the monsoon and maps them onto the 5 stages of grief framework. They also discuss tropical storm activity in the eastern Pacific and talk through the monsoon game for August. There is not much on the horizon for the rest of September, but we have been surprised before, so here's hoping!
In the August 2020 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss "what is going on with monsoon 2020?!" This includes a review of different locations around the U.S. Southwest, where some locales are just barely hitting long-term averages, while others are running at record or near-record driest levels (so far). They also cover some of the factors driving these patterns, what we might expect in the 2nd half of the monsoon, and where this ranks in terms of the regional precipitation records (and unmet expectations). They wrap with a discussion of the monsoon game, which is fun despite the relatively dry conditions - especially for those that leaned on the dry side of their guesses in Arizona. The results for July are posted below, and congrats to Doug D on topping the July leaderboard.
We also finally have some podcast gear (shirts and mugs). You can order them at https://teespring.com/stores/the-southwest-climate-podcast. We set the prices at wholesale cost, so we don't make any money off sales, but if you are interested in showing your support - or enjoying the (lack of a) monsoon in style, this is one way to do so. Mike's and Zack's orders both arrived, and they can vouch for the quality of the shirts and the printing.
In the July 2020 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido update their discussion of the 2020 wildfire season, which is turning out to be quite active for Arizona (while New Mexico is relatively quiet). Next, they move on to monsoon 2020, focusing on what the outlooks and forecasts had to say about this year, how this slow start compares to previous years, and asking the question ‘does a late start matter?’ for the overall seasonal totals (hint: it’s complicated). They also include a discussion of “key numbers” for the monsoon and a discussion of some recent literature about the role of widespread precipitation events and regional monsoon precipitation totals. They are joined at the end by Ben McMahan to talk a bit about the monsoon guessing game - where they discuss the guesses they received for July and look forward to seeing even more people play for August and September - Details Below:
Monsoon Game Details: Ben, Zack, and Mike developed a monsoon game that anyone can play. For each month, they are estimating monthly precipitation at five cities in the US Southwest (Phoenix, Tucson, Flagstaff, Albuquerque, and El Paso). To keep it simple, they are picking the decile they think is most likely for each station, and focusing on the core months of monsoon precipitation (July-Aug-Sept). Points are awarded each month (see the survey link for details), and they will tally up points over the monsoon and see who scores highest for each month, each location, and overall. They had around 35 players for July (see figures below), but you can still get your guesses in for August (and eventually September).
Make your August guess at https://bit.ly/3h2ZInS
We’ll publish results on the podcast page and in the SWCO each month, but be sure to tune in to the podcast for more details about the game and the monsoon.
In the June 2020 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to talk about the last month of weather (including what Zack has coined the "TooSoon"), the current conditions (including the wildfire situation) and look forward to the monsoon. The monsoon may have officially started on June 15th, but they discuss why we are probably at least a few weeks away from seeing much in the way of rain. Also, we developed a 'play at home' game for guessing monthly monsoon totals, and we're excited to open this up to the general public. You can enter the game (and fill out a short survey about the podcast if you want at https://uarizona.co1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_eA1GfWVmsatWDLD
The link explains the game, and Zack also lays out the rules and points on the podcast. The game will be for the months of July, August, and September, so you have till June 30th to get your July guesses in. We'll run another entry for August in July, and so on.
Happy Monsoon!
In the May 2020 edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss a bit more about the winter that was, summer heat (and the current spring/May heat), the upcoming monsoon, and some of the seasonal hazards we see in the Southwest this time of year (heat, wildfire, air quality). They also look to the monsoon and summer seasonal outlooks and the factors affecting monsoon timing and intensity, offering some insight into what we can (or can't) say about monsoon forecasts (before each giving one of their own). They conclude with a bit of ENSO discussion, given the possible La Nina on the horizon.
We hope that our climate/weather punditry can serve as a short break from concerns about the Covid19/coronavirus outbreak. We plan to continue producing this podcast remotely for the foreseeable future, and this podcast was recorded over Zoom. The sound quality might be a little different (or maybe you won't even notice), but we want to keep making the podcast during the stay-at/work-from-home order. We enjoy these discussions and hope you do too. -Ben, Mike, and Zack
In the April 2020 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido bring you the latest news and commentary about climate in the Southwest. First, they have a conversation about the links between COVID-19 and climate, and the challenges of research during a fast-moving event (You can skip to the 15:00 mark if you want to move straight to their discussion of southwestern climate). For the rest of the podcast, they move through an overview of events from winter and early spring - including just how wet and wildflower-y it has been. This leads to a discussion of wildfire, the timing and quality of current ENSO forecasts, and just a bit of optimism looking towards the monsoon.
Discussed in this Episode:
Potential Effects of Seasonal and Temperature Changes on Spread of COVID-19 Examined in New Rapid Response to Government from Standing Committee on Emerging Infectious Diseases - https://www.nationalacademies.org/news/2020/04/potential-effects-of-seasonal-and-temperature-changes-on-spread-of-covid-19-examined-in-new-rapid-response-to-government-from-standing-committee-on-emerging-infectious-diseases
Looking for the March 2020 Podcast? We included the wrong bit.ly link in the email and the tweet leads to this page.
The Mar 2020 podcast is here: https://bit.ly/2IZf7GN
In the Jan 2020 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido take a look back at 2019 and the climate that was, and make some bold (and not so bold) predictions for what could happen in 2020. They also dive into the tricky question regarding drought designations in the Southwest, and grapple with the question of "Are we (still) in a drought?" - a common question we get asked all the time. The answer (as you might imagine) is more complicated, and depends on lots of things - tune in to hear their answer(s).
Maps Discussed in this Episode: NCEI Precipitation and Temperature Ranks (Jan-Dec 2019)
WWDT 36 and 72 month Standardized Precipitation Index
In the Mar 2020 edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss winter conditions across the Southwest, the state of snowpack and snow water equivalent around the west, and water supply and streamflow forecasts as we look to spring and summer.
Discussed in this Episode:
Colorado River flow dwindles as warming-driven loss of reflective snow energizes evaporation - P.C.D. Milly, K.A. Dunne https://science.sciencemag.org/content/367/6483/1252
UA Snowview: https://climate.arizona.edu/snowview/
NRCS Snow Water Equivalent
NRCS Streamflow Forecasts (link)
In the Dec 2019 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido is back and joins Mike Crimmins for a discussion of the fall weather that was, and the winter weather that could be. This includes a very wet November, some of the factors that might affect our winter weather patterns, and the challenge of looking further out than a week or two during an ENSO-neutral winter. Happy Holidays! We'll be back in (Jan) 2020 for another look at SW climate and weather.
November 2019 ranks from National Centers for Environmental Information - ncei.noaa.gov
In the Nov 2019 edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Ben McMahan sit down to talk through recent storm activity in the Southwest after a month-plus pause in the rain for much of the region during October. Fear not, Zack Guido will be back with us soon, but you'll have to listen to the podcast to hear why (hint: he has a pretty good excuse). With the rain finally falling in the Southwest as November is coming to a close, we wanted to get a quick mini-pod out there before the Thanksgiving holiday, and we'll be back sometime in December to take a closer look at what has been going on in the Southwest's weather and climate, and what the winter may have in store.
As a note, this was recorded the week of Nov 18, when a series of storms had started rolling through the Southwest, but the mechanism for these storms is relatively similar to that of the week of Nov 25 (i.e. when this podcast is finally coming out).
In the Oct 2019 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido recap the monsoon that was - or in many places, wasn't. They discuss the monsoon overall (from June 15 - Sept 30), as well as recent September precipitation related to tropical storm activity and cut-off lows, to play the annual "is this monsoon or not?" game. They also think through how these events can juice seasonal totals, and take a closer look at the climatology of events (i.e. tropical storms) that supplement precipitation totals during the June 15 - Sept 30 monsoon period, and they consider how seasonal statistics might play out if we used a more restrictive definition for monsoon days and associated rainfall totals. The figures below are what they discuss at the end of the podcast (iTunes and Android podcast listeners, visit https://www.climas.arizona.edu/podcast/oct-2019-southwest-climate-podcast-conservation-misery-and-lapse-rate-doping-edition to see these maps)
In the August 2019 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido deconstruct the monsoon to-date (or the Non-Soon as some are calling it). They take a look at the regional precipitation patterns, how 2019 compares to recent years, and how far back we have to look to find a monsoon that is as dry as this one, with implications for drought as well as regional temperatures. They also look forward to the next 4-5 weeks to see if there's any chance to catch up (not likely) or at least finish strong (a bit better chance of that). They also discuss the monsoon fantasy bets, realizing that it might be a bit more fun if it was raining more - but the upshot is for round 2, Zack beat Mike by a cumulative score of 145 to 143 (but noting that a score of 300 would have meant an "average" monthly total for the 3 stations they picked).
In the this "mini" episode (the Aug 2019 SW Climate Podcast Monsoon Mini) - Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido deconstruct the relative lack of monsoon activity across much of the region, as well as to discuss a few places that are receiving more precipitation than expected (looking at you Ajo). They recap some of the totals through Aug 7 and dive into the mechanics that have been driving this (relative lack of) activity. They also check the 1-2 week forecasts to see whether there is any hope for recovery in the latter half of the monsoon.
Note 1: This was recorded on Aug 7, before the last round of activity (Aug 10 in particular in Tucson).
Note 2: Zack and Mike huddled around our secondary recording option because Ben is on a fieldwork stint in Louisiana (but still managed to edit the podcast remotely), such is all of their dedication to the podcast! The sound quality is mostly ok; however, the quality of the podcast content is exactly what you'd expect! We'll go back to our normal routine for the next podcast, when everyone is back in the same room.
Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido are back "early" (unlike the monsoon) for a special mini-podcast focused on the onset of the monsoon. They discuss some of the recent conditions and how they almost saw rain last week (or did, if you were in Vail, AZ or parts of NM), and consider 1) Has the monsoon started? 2) Why/Why-not? and 3) What data helps inform a perspective on monsoon onset (along with what this might mean for the rest of the season). This doesn't include monthly recaps or other regional overviews and information, and is meant to capture some of the week-to-week changes in the monsoon based on what is happening (or is not happening). They'll be back with the typical monthly podcast whenever summer schedules bring everyone into the same room.
In the June edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido discuss the astonishingly good run of weather the Southwest experienced in May. This busted their bet game of how many 100 degree days in May (there were zero! - Mike bet 2, Zack bet 5-6) but they'll take that loss every year if they could. They also discuss what this has meant for drought, snowpack, streamflow, and fire risk, and compare monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation patterns with long term averages. They finish with an extended preview of the monsoon, including a discussion about how difficult it can be to predict the exact onset of the monsoon, despite a pretty regular start date, as well as the challenge of forecasting intensity given how variable the monsoon can be.
They also run down some friendly wagers on monsoon totals (June 15 - Sept 30) - with Mike (not surprisingly) picking climatology (6.1 inches), Zack going bullish at 110% of average, and Ben veering pessimist at 75% of average. They also introduce a new "fantasy monsoon" game that splits the season into 3 periods for them to pick stations in the Southwest they think might over-perform compared to climatology. For the June 15 - July 15 period, Mike picked Douglas, Nogales, and Gila Hot Springs, and Zack picked Organ Pipe, Kitt Peak, and Tucson. Next month they'll recap their first period scores, and pick 3 new stations for the middle period of the monsoon. Tune into the podcast for details (and we'll include running totals on the CLIMAS website and in the SW Climate Outlook each month).
In the April 2019 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido discuss the winter that (really) was for most of the Southwest, as well as more recent conditions that have favored Arizona over New Mexico. They also connect late fall and winter precipitation events to current and ongoing issues in the Southwest, including drought and reservoir storage and the status of lakes Mead and Powell, pollen and allergies this spring, and wildfire risk heading into the summer. They wrap up with a discussion of current and projected El Niño conditions, as well as what impact these conditions might have on tropical storm activity and the timing of the monsoon.
Regarding the bet: Zack won the Jan-Feb-Mar precip bet with a guess of 2.9 inches (compared to Mike's 2.8) but both were admittedly pretty far off from the actual total of 3.74 (climatology was 2.53). The next bet is for the number of 100 degree days in May and June. Tune in to hear their guesses and send us your own.
In the March 2019 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido reflect on the winter so far, including the "frigid" temperatures and "exceptional" precipitation. They also contextualize the winter by looking at the last 5 years - mostly warmer and drier - vs. climatology -- considering what a normal winter might actually look like in the Southwest. They also discuss snowpack across the west, and consider how widespread this winter activity has been within the West. In addition to a brief detour into the state of El Niño and possible implications, they also revisit Zack's ski trip to slightly snowy Montana (instead of overwhelmingly snowed in Tahoe), and sum up the state of the precipitation bet for Jan-Feb-Mar (in case you missed it, Feb precipitation blew up the totals). They also have a new bet - whether we'll see enough precipitation between now and May 31 to reach top 8 wettest status (Zack's bet) or whether we'll stay in the 8th-14th wettest range (Mike's call).
January
February
March
Total
Zack
1.25
0.75
0.9
2.9
Mike
1.5
1.0
0.3
2.8
Climatology
0.94
0.86
0.73
2.53
Actual
1.09
2.03
0.62 (as of Mar 15)
3.74 (as of Mar 15)
In the January 2019 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast - Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido embrace our winter and talk through how the Southwest is performing over the last 30-90 days (including a recap of snow so far). They also dive into the Polar Vortex, and talk through the factors that drive its appearance, and what it means for the rest of the country (as well as the Southwest). They also take a brief detour to take a closer look at forecast snow totals across the West, in Zack's (hopefully successful) bid to predict good snow for an upcoming ski trip. They wrap up with a discussion of El Niño (or the possible lack thereof) and talk about what factors might be limiting the development of a more decisive El Niño event - including the Madden Julian Oscillation. (They also recap where they stand in the J-F-M precip 'bet', although they both realize some flaws in their predictions from last month).
In the December edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido talk about the flip between our wetter/cooler October, and the drier conditions in November, as well as December so far. Next they dive into the snow - in a discussion of snow climatology in the Southwest, as well as a recent paper about declining snow in the western U.S by some of our colleagues in the Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences. Finally, they talk about the outlook for the next three months (Jan-Feb-Mar) and come up with a new bet tracking the monthly and cumulative totals. Play along at home, or send us your guesses before January gets too far along, and we'll see how you stack up against our "experts".
January
February
March
Total
Zack
1.25
0.75
0.9
2.9
Mike
1.5
1.0
0.3
2.8
Climatology
0.94
0.86
0.73
2.53
In part 2 of the November 2018 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido dive into El Niño in the Southwest. They discuss the current state of the science, what the forecasts have to say about El Niño, and what climatology can tell us about our expectations for an El Niño event in the Southwest.
Production note: Travel schedules prevented us from recording a podcast in October, but Mike and Zack clearly had some pent-up perspectives on SW Climate, so the podcast ran a bit long. We decided to release the podcast in two parts - the first part covers the monsoon, Oct/Nov weather & climate, and wildfire in the Southwest, while this part (part 2) covers El Niño in the Southwest (science, seasonal outlooks, and climatology).
In the November 2018 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido give a brief recap of the monsoon rankings for 2018, to compare seasonal totals, and to see if a bit of hindsight adds anything to our assessment of the monsoon this year. Next they dive into October conditions in the Southwest (precipitation and temperature), and discuss the role that the Pacific tropical storm season played in these events, and the impacts that season had at a regional scale. They finish with a discussion of wildfire, with an eye towards what is happening in California right now.
Production note: Travel schedules prevented us from recording a podcast in October, but Mike and Zack clearly had some pent-up perspectives on SW Climate, so the podcast ran a bit long. We decided to release the podcast in two parts - the first part covers the topics mentioned above (Monsoon, October/Nov weather & climate, wildfire in the Southwest), while part 2 (to be released early next week) will cover El Niño and the seasonal outlooks for the Southwest).
In the September 2018 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido look back at the monsoon and talk about how the monsoon fired up and unfolded, some pretty impressive rain totals in the Southwest, and who might have been left out at times. There are technically still a few days left in the monsoon, but during the 'transition' season of September, it takes some pretty special circumstances (or a tropical storm!) to bring widespread precipitation to the region. Conveniently, this just happened, so they talk about this event (on/around Sept 19) as well as the weather events of the last month and the monsoon precipitation totals (to date). They wrap up with a discussion of "the bet" and preview next month's podcast when they'll dive back into ENSO and the possible-to-likely El Niño that's been brewing for a few months now.
In the August edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido discuss the monsoon in the Southwest this year. They focus on how it compares to past events and long term averages, and discuss the spatial and temporal variability of the storms that occur during the monsoon (i.e. did it rain at your house or not?). As part of their regional roundup, they talk about why (really how) Phoenix has been hogging more monsoon events than usual, and make note of the untapped potential in other parts of the Southwest, where conditions have been ripe for widespread monsoon activity, but has not seen the kind of 'epic' monsoon that Zack (and much of central Tucson) was hoping for. Mike reminds us that over the longer term it eventually evens out, although this is limited comfort for those who are on the losing (i.e. dry) end of the range of monsoon precipitation to date. The bet for the monsoon total had Zack guessing 5.75" and Mike at 7.5" (and Ben wins if they both go over). The Tucson Airport is currently sitting at 4.81”…which means Zack might be in the driver’s seat as it needs to hit 6.63 for Mike to win. The peak period of monsoon activity is starting to wind down, but tropical storms that veer back into the Southwest are still on the table, so we'll wait and see.
The Monsoon is back! In the July edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido kick off with a recap of the role that Hurricane Bud played in driving storms and moisture into the Southwest on June 15-16, with a focus on the tropical moisture incursion that occurred during the transitional season. They even take a moment to discuss whether that event was the monsoon, or just - in Mike's words ' "monsoon-y". Next, they turn to the onset of the actual monsoon in terms of a few different metrics (precipitation, dewpoint, precipitable water), the atmospheric patterns that affect this onset, and how this shift has affected recent temperatures, wildfire season, and where and how precipitation is falling. They briefly discuss El Niño, as well as the seasonal outlooks that forecast a relatively rosy picture (i.e. wet) for Arizona and parts of New Mexico over the next few weeks and months.
They also settle on their friendly wager for this month - how many days in July will have "measurable precipitation" at the Tucson Airport, and what will be the July total. Mike guessed 10 days with rain and 3.5 inches, while Zack guessed 12 days with rain and 4 inches (as a note: as of July 11, the count stands at 4 days and 1.33 inches). Last month's bet was for the highest recorded temperature in June - Mike won with a guess of 109 (Zack guessed 110), while the actual value was 107.
Finally, regarding their guesses for the entire monsoon - Zack guessed 5.75" and Mike 7.5" for the Jun 15 - Sept 30 window. The current value is 1.61" (as of July 12) which is a bit ahead of average, but was augmented by the non-quite-monsoon activity July 15-16.
In the June 2018 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to dive into their favorite season. The monsoon is on the horizon, which leads to considerable excitement. First, they recap temperature and precipitation in the region, and talk about how this connects to the fire season so far. They turn to the monsoon outlooks and forecasts, with a close look at what these forecasts are saying, but how much certainty we have (or don't have) in monsoon seasonal forecasts. Zack then makes his case for the miracle monsoon - a mash up of different months of monsoons past - for what his ideal monsoon would look like (think fantasy football for monsoon monthly totals). They wrap up with a look at the seasonal forecasts - and focus on how ENSO connects to expectations for tropical storms, the monsoon forecast, and seasonal outlooks, even if the signal is relatively weak this time of year.
In what is becoming a monthly contest, there's a friendly wager (or 2!) on the line. This month, Zack and Mike report on the results of their May podcast bet, guessing how many days over 100 we'll see in Tucson in May. The 30-year average is 4 - Mike guessed 7, and Zack went big with 9 - tune in to the podcast to hear who won. For the June podcast, they put their best guess as to the maximum temperature we'll see in Tucson in June. The record maximum in June is 117 (and the lowest high temp recorded in June was 107) - Mike guessed 109, and Zack guessed 110. they also put forth their monsoon guesses - with Zack at 5.75" and Mike at 7.5' for the Jun 15 - Sept 30 window. We'll see!
In the May 2018 edition of the CLIMAS SW Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss May's weather and climate, especially the windy conditions that seem to fire up every year around this time, and the role that plays in wildfire season. They also discuss the precipitation history of the past year, reflecting on the low precipitation totals across most of the Southwest, but how concentrated the rain events were in Southern Arizona (July during last the monsoon, and a good run of storms in February). This leads them to a discussion of drought in the region, which they discuss in terms of recent conditions, how this compares to other droughts in the past 20 years, and the data and information drought experts use to monitor regional drought conditions.
As per usual, there's a friendly wager on the line. Zack "won" last month’s bet guessing the first day over 100 degrees in May (in 2018, it was May 6). In this episode they guess how many days over 100 we'll see in Tucson in May. The 30-year average is 4 - Mike guessed 7, and Zack went big with 9 - we'll see who won in the June 2018 SW Climate Podcast.
CLIMAS Member(s):
Ben McMahan Michael Crimmins Zack Guido
In this episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss what happened with the weather over the last 30 days. They break down the event from mid-February that brought a pulse of moisture to SE Arizona and SW New Mexico, including the connection between atmospheric rivers and precipitation in the Southwest (vs. CA). They also discuss the larger regional patterns of rain, snow, and streamflow within the context of the fading La Niña signal, and wrap things up with a new bet. When will the first 100 degree day occur? - tune in for the details, but as is their pattern, Zack is a bit ambitious in his guess, and Mike tends towards climatology.
In the February 2018 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido chat about what's been going on in the Southwest over the past few months, since we last recorded a podcast. In terms of precipitation, the answer is not much, unless the day in question is also a podcast day - the weather has an odd - but welcome - habit of raining on days we record the podcast. In terms of temperature, the record to near record heat remains a key part of the winter story.
Specifically, Mike and Zack discuss the conditions of the past 1-3 months, focusing on the overall lack of precipitation in the Southwest, meager snowpack, above average temperatures, and impacts associated with warmer and drier than average winters, including an early start to fire season in Arizona. They also discuss the atmospheric patterns that have led to the elevated temperatures and lack of precipitation in the SW, and what changed in the past week that brought much needed moisture and cooler conditions to parts of Arizona and New Mexico. They also grapple with the prospects of a "miracle March" that could pull seasonal precipitation totals back up to near average, and whether we have any shot at this (spoiler: chances aren't great). They also discuss if this were to happen, whether it could quickly reverse long term precipitation deficits and drought impacts (again, unlikely). They wrap up with a discussion of the current La Niña event and the role it has played in the Southwest, as well as what the seasonal outlooks have to say about the next few months.
Materials discussed in this episode:
In this episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido discuss the regional temperature and precip of the past 30-90 days, including the mostly above average temperatures, the very dry conditions, and the recent precipitation event that hit parts of southern Arizona and New Mexico. They also discuss the California wildfires in the context of the Santa Ana winds, years of persistent drought, and the convergence of conditions that set the stage for the current crisis in California - with an eye towards what conditions in Arizona and New Mexico look like for this coming fire season. They wrap up with a discussion of – you guessed it – La Niña, including connecting the current conditions to the larger arc of persistent drought, seasonal fire risk, and what we might expect looking forward (including a friendly wager on guesses for cool season precip).
Materials Discussed in this episode:
In the Nov 2017 episode of the CLIMAS SW Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discussion temperature and precipitation in the Southwest over the past month or so, and the discrepancy between Arizona and New Mexico re: precipitation. They also dive into ENSO and the emergent (weak) La Niña conditions, and what this might mean, taking a close look at last year (another weak La NIña) and other weak La NIña events of the past decades. They wrap up with a quick summary of the seasonal outlooks for the Southwest.
In this episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido look back at the monsoon that wasn't, then very much so was, and then wasn't again (at least in Arizona), as well as the late season surge over in New Mexico. They discuss the mechanisms that helped push the monsoon to near record levels in July, but helped facilitate a shut down for most of August and nearly all of September. They also discuss "the bet". Next month the discussion will return to ENSO, drought, and upcoming forecasts for fall/winter in the SW, but for now, it's all monsoon, all the time.
In the August edition of the CLIMAS SW Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido discuss how much has changed since the last podcast (Jul 12), which ended up being one of the first days in an impressive string of sustained monsoon precipitation events across the Southwest - and in much of southern Arizona in particular.
In the podcast - Mike and Zack recap the monsoon performance and statistics to date, they give an overview of the atmospheric patterns that led to the extended run of monsoon precipitation, and they daydream a bit about how close this year could come to monsoon records (if it stays on the current trajectory).
Note: This podcast was recorded on Aug 9th, just before the next wave of monsoon activity fired up in southern Arizona.
In this edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast - Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss Southwestern weather & climate, including:
The extended heat wave of June 2017 (and the near record heat for the first half of 2017 (Jan-Jun)) (1:00 - 15:00),
The wildfires in the Southwest , and the role that a monsoon late arrival might have played (15:00-19:00)
The Southwestern Monsoon - the components of the system, comparisons to other years, and what we might expect going forward (19:00-38:00)
As a note: this was recorded on Jun 12, 2017, before most of the extended run of monsoon activity that hit southern Arizona Jun 10 - Jun 17 (and is ongoing!). Mike and Zack will discuss more about this (amazing) week in the next edition of the podcast.
Materials discussed in this podcast:
Monsoon Resources
CLIMAS: www.climas.arizona.edu/sw-climate/monsoon
Monsoon Summaries: https://cals.arizona.edu/climate/misc/monsoon/monsoon_summaries.html
CSAP: Precipitation Maps of the Monsoon - Arizona and New Mexico
National Weather Service: www.wrh.noaa.gov/twc/monsoon/monsoon.php
Bob Maddox's MadWeather Blog - https://madweather.blogspot.com/
Arizona WRF Discussion - https://arizonawrf.blogspot.com/
*122nd out of 123 - otherwise known as the 2nd warmest June on record (listen in for the details from Zack and Mike)
In this episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido discuss May weather in comparison to the record/near-record March conditions, what this means for snowpack, streamflow and reservoir conditions. They also discuss past/present/future wildfire, the imminence of summer heat, and the eventual relief monsoon conditions will bring. Oh and a bit of El Niño sprinkled throughout - the role it might be playing in seasonal outlooks, and how strong it might be.
In the May 2017 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast - Zack Guido is back and sits down with Mike Crimmins to do a recap of the winter that was (or in some ways, wasn't), the current and recent conditions in the Southwest (including fire weather and fire conditions), and a look forward to what we can expect from the "fire and brimstone" season that is already building (with just a hint of a monsoon discussion to keep Zack feeling sane).
We updated our iTunes podcast feed: It would help us tremendously if you could rate and review the new podcast feed in iTunes, as these ratings help other listeners find our podcast.
CLIMAS Member(s):
Ben McMahan Michael Crimmins Zack Guido
In this mini-episode of the SW Climate podcast, Mike Crimmins and Ben McMahan take a quick spin around the "snow-eater" temps of March, plus a brief comment on fire conditions. As a note: this was recorded before the SawMill Fire started in late April, so the discussion is on March conditions, and some commentary on early April Fire events (Shovel, Molino Basin). it might seem obvious now, but around 8 minutes in, but Mike hits the conditions that led to the SawMill fire pretty nicely. We'll have a full length podcast next week with Mike and Zack.
CLIMAS Member(s):
Ben McMahan Michael Crimmins
In the March 2017 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido discuss the winter season in the Southwest - with an eye towards how Arizona and New Mexico have fared (temperature, precipitation, snowpack, streamflow forecasts, etc.), as well as to the exceptional events taking place in California and across the Intermountain West. They also try to put this "La Niña" into context, how it did (or did not) meet expectations, and whether that even matters at this point, as well as what the rumblings of El Niño might mean for the rest of the Spring (and 2017 overall).
Materials discussed in this podcast:
CLIMAS Member(s):
Ben McMahan Michael Crimmins Zack Guido
In this episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido talk about the last few months of weather in the Southwest, and how it doesn't quite look like we might have expected given borderline La Niña conditions. They also discuss the recent run of storms, and what this might mean for drought, as well as the decay of La Niña and what this might mean for the rest of the winter in the Southwest. They share their mix of optimism given the weak/decaying La Niña, and pessimism given how dry the Southwest can be even under normal conditions. They also dive into a discussion of other models that inform our perspective on regional weather and climate (PDO, MJO).
In the December (Holiday!) edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido discuss the last few months of (warm, mostly dry) weather in the Southwest, what the season may hold given the "weak" La Niña conditions that may (or may not) be sticking around through the early part of 2017, and how the impacts we look for in the Southwest are connected to much larger regional and global phenomena - Atmospheric Rivers & the Polar Vortex (respectively).
In the November edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido cover a range of topics, including:
A recap the last month of weather in the Southwest (including our hot and dry October and what the first half of November brought),
A look back at the water year (Oct 1 2015 - Sep 30 2016) to discuss how the Southwest fared, and what this perspective lends to our understanding of SW climate,
A look forward to La Niña - what the models are saying, as well as what these patterns might mean for winter in the Southwest.
In this episode of the CLIMAS SW Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido recap the Southwestern monsoon, with an eye towards how various regions of the Southwest fared in terms of storm events and seasonal totals. They also discuss the different events that contribute to seasonal totals during the official monsoon (June 15 - Sept 30), as well as what some of the best case and worst case monsoon totals might look like in a thought experiment regarding monsoon extremes. They close out with a brief discussion of La Niña (or the lack thereof), and a look towards what fall and winter might have in store given the current (uncertain) conditions.
In the August episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido take a closer look at the monsoon in the Southwest. They recap the monsoon, they discuss the components that factor into monsoon precipitation patterns and the high degree of spatial and temporal variability of that precipitation, and the way the monsoon can fade or surge as the official season winds down, depending on how the season progresses (and how much tropical storm activity contributes to the seasonal total).
Note: In what should probably be a running disclaimer for the duration of the monsoon, given the variability and unpredictability of monsoon precipitation, this podcast was recorded prior to the storms that rolled into SW Arizona in the last few days. The most salient point is that Tacna is no longer at 0.00 inches for the monsoon (as Mike mentioned in the podcast). As with last month, we'd like to take credit for the uptick in a region we called out, since these storms have a habit of popping up just after we finish recording (see last two months!), but such is the inherent spatial and temporal variability of the monsoon - if it were easier to track and forecast, it wouldn't be so exciting.
Note: this podcast was recorded just prior to the run of storms that fired up in late July, so while Mike and Zack hint at the upcoming storms and moisture (most models were pointed towards an uptick in monsoon activity, their discussion does not cover this latest run of storms (we'll save a discussion of this event for the next podcast). We'd like to take credit for the increased monsoon activity, since these storms have a habit of popping up just after we finish recording (see last month!), but such is the inherent spatial and temporal variability of the monsoon - if it were easier to track and forecast, it wouldn't be so exciting.
In this episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss the monsoon in the Southwest, focusing on the big events that closed out June, and the relatively long "break" that followed for much of July. After such a strong start, this extended break was especially disappointing. They also track the building conditions that point towards an uptick in activity (that has since come to fruition) and highlight how the inherent variability of monsoon activity (and the various components that go into the monsoon) make it so difficult to forecast a few days in advance, much less at a seasonal time scale.
Note 2: Mike wants to assure listeners that it has rained (quite a lot) at his house, and as such, he is in a much better mood.
In the June 2016 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido look back at May and June to discuss the relatively mild weather of May, the near-record heat in June, and the transition into the monsoon. In the second half of the podcast, they dive into the weeds on monsoon climatology and the variable spatial and temporal patterns that characterize the monsoon in the Southwest. They highlight what we might expect in the next 90 days, along with a discussion of the difficulty of creating regional monsoon season forecasts (given the high degree of spatial and temporal variability, and the randomness of weather).
Please note: we recorded this podcast prior to the run of storms that hit the Southwest in the last week of June. Most of the podcast is focused on a recap of past events, or evergreen discussions of climatological features of the monsoon in the Southwest, but there are a few references to potential monsoon activity and building storms that refer to (at the time of recording) forecasts and possible future conditions or events that have already come to pass, or have even exceeded normal/expectations.
In this episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido cover a side range of topics related to weather and climate in the Southwest, including:
The transition from winter into spring so far with a recap of weather over the past month, including the recent run of milder and wetter weather than we might expect in a normally dry period,
A deeper dive on the ongoing disappointment that was El Niño, by looking closely at a preliminary analysis (Levine & McPhaden, below), and what it begins to tell us in diagnosing what happened with El Niño
An exploration of the wildfire risk potential for this year, and how recent years compare, going back to the 2011 fire season, and
An early start to discussing the monsoon, partly because the season is closer than we might think, but also as a way to divert attention from what Zack is calling the "doom season" (hot and dry conditions leading up to the monsoon).
Online Resources
How the July 2014 Easterly Wind Burst Gave the 2015-6 El Niño a Head Start - Aaron F. Z. Levine & Michael J. McPhaden
Arctic Oscillation Analysis and Forecasts April 21, 2016
In the early April edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido look back at our exceptional El Niño event, which may be standing out for all the wrong reasons - especially in the Southwest. They discuss the anomalously warm and dry conditions the Southwest has experienced since early January; and put these conditions into context regarding our expectations in a strong El Niño year, what might be driving these patterns (and the moisture away from us), and just where that moisture has gone. They also discuss the similarities of the current precipitation pattern to La Niña (i.e. dry in the Southwest and wet in the Northwest) but highlight how this event is very different from La Niña associated atmospheric patterns (even if the precipitation patterns feel like a La Niña year). They also point out that while we're not in a La Niña yet..but forecasts call for much higher chances of a swing to La Niña by fall of this year. They also look forward to the rest of the spring, including the last gasp of moisture the second week of April, and what this underwhelming El Niño might mean for regional drought, snowpack, and wildfire conditions.
We'll be back near the end of April with another podcast episode that takes a more comprehensive look at just how this El Niño event compared to expectations (models and forecasts), and what we've learned from this event.
In the February episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido is back, and he and Mike Crimmins sit down to talk, you guessed it, El Niño. They recap what we've seen over the past month, and take a closer look at whether this El Niño event is actually underperforming, whether expectations were set too high going into the season (Godzilla, etc.), and what we might expect for the upcoming month if we can ever break out of this high pressure system.
In the January 2016 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Ben McMahan** recap the transitional weather patterns of the last few months of 2015 as we moved from Fall into Winter, and discuss whether this transitional season matched general expectations, given what is expected in an El Niño year. They also discuss what a characteristic southwestern winter pattern looks like, and conclude the podcast with a conversation about how this El Niño event has stacked up so far this winter, and what they anticipate over the next few months.
*We had a small technical difficulty with the audio quality that delayed publication until today, but the conversation is still timely/relevant especially considering the general break in winter storm activity we've seen since early January (Jan 31 notwithstanding).
**Zack Guido is away on a research project but will join us again in February.
CLIMAS Member(s):
Ben McMahan Michael Crimmins
In the December episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido discuss the difficulty of characterizing a climate phenomenon (in this case El Niño) on a weather time scale, which is made difficult by the highly variable transition season we see in the Southwest in October and November. This difficulty is especially salient as media, the general public, and climate scientists are all hungry for explanations as to whether day to day events fit into larger climate patterns (i.e. is this an El NIño related impact or not!?). They also go over the recent events of October, November, and early December, before looking forward at what the seasonal forecasts suggest is likely in store for this Winter (hint: all signs still point to a wetter than average winter!).
In the Nov 2015 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins look back on an anomalously wet October, and in particular the effect of one system that made two visits to the Southwest. They also talk about Hurricane Patricia, and the speed at which that tropical system escalated to one of the strongest storms on record. They also talk about October weather in terms of the seasonal transition (between monsoon summer and fall/winter patterns) and the impact of tropical storm systems, as well as the difficulty of attributing specific weather events to longer term patterns (i.e. the El Niño Southern Oscillation). They wrap up by talking about El Niño and the seasonal forecasts, which include projections of above average precipitation in the southwest, as well as a number of global impacts.
In this episode of The Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins & Zack Guido recap the 2015 monsoon, (and revisit some of their predictions from earlier this summer).
In part 1, they give a quick overview of the monsoon, before taking a closer look at the month by month progression, to track the overall season for what stood out (and what was underwhelming).
In part 2, they talk about nuances associated with the monsoon, including the impacts of El Niño, and eastern pacific tropical storm activity.
They conclude with a discussion of the variable nature of the monsoon, and what makes this such an exciting place to live as we watch the season unfold.
The Southwest Climate Podcast is a production of CLIMAS - Climate Assessment for the Southwest. CLIMAS is part of the NOAA Regional Integrated Science and Assessment program, and is focused on climate research, communication, and outreach in Arizona & New Mexico, and is housed at the University of Arizona Institute of the Environment. Mike Crimmins is a principle investigator with CLIMAS, a professor of Soil, Water and Environmental Science in the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, and climate extension specialist with the University of Arizona Cooperative Extension. Zack Guido is a research scientist with the Institute of the Environment and UA program manager of the International Research and Applications Program (IRAP). The podcast is edited and produced by Ben McMahan; Research, Outreach, and Assessment Specialist with CLIMAS.
Note: We had server difficulties with our podcast feed - the podcast is posted now, and is also available on iTunes.
In this edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins focus specifically on El Niño and what we can expect going into this fall and winter, given the "strong" status of this El Niño event.
Part 1: A look at the El Niño signal, including a look back at what happened in 2014 (and why El Niño didn't start when we thought it would), as well as a look forward for what El Niño might mean regionally and globally.
Part 2: A close look at the 97-98 El Niño event, and what happened in the Southwest during the last "strong" El Niño event...can we expect more of the same? What might be different?
Part 3: A look at the El Niño models going into Fall 2015 and Winter 2016 - How certain are we about increased precipitation this winter? When might we see this increase? Any chance for a "boringly average" year, despite the El Niño signal?
We'll be back at the end of September with a Monsoon recap, as well as up to date information regarding El Niño and what this might mean for the Southwest in 2015-2016.
In this episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido take a closer look at the 2015 monsoon so far, with thoughts on how it has fared, and what it looks like for the rest of the monsoon, particularly with El Niño looming on the horizon. In addition to a general summary and recap, they look at spatial and temporal variability of the monsoon, some of the features that drive 'breaks' in the monsoon, and what impact El Niño might be having now, and this winter, especially if it remains a strong event. They also talk about expectations and what makes a "normal" monsoon, as well as how our expectations might be shaping how we perceive any given monsoon event or season.
They cut short the El Niño discussion, as we've planned a special El Niño-centric podcast for Aug 21, to take a deeper look at El Niño so far, what we might expect, and how this (strong) event could compare to other similar events...so stay tuned regarding El Niño.
CLIMAS Member(s):
Ben McMahan Michael Crimmins Zack Guido
In a special edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins:
Recap the monsoon so far in 2015, including some of the factors that have affected our season (e.g. tropical storm systems) and the impacts we have seen from the monsoon in 2015 Discuss the features of the monsoon - the "ingredients" that make up the monsoon, and what happens when any of these are disrupted or absent, and Look forward regarding interactions between the monsoon and the current moderate-to-strong El Niño signal - what this might mean for the rest of the monsoon.
We wanted to put together a special all monsoon podcast (this actually started as a "mini" podcast, but there was just too much to cover!). We'll be back in early August with climate summaries, more on the monsoon, and (of course!) the current state of El Niño and what that means for the Southwest.
CLIMAS Member(s):
Ben McMahan Michael Crimmins Zack Guido
In the June 2015 edition of the CLIMAS SW Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido recap the month of June, including the quick transition from cool and wet to hot and muggy conditions. The discuss the impact of tropical storms on the region, the early start to this season, and what this may or may not mean in terms of relationship to monsoon patterns. They turn to El Niño, and the impact the El Niño signal may be having on the region, both looking back at the past few months, but in particular looking forward at what this could mean for the southwest in terms of precipitation patterns over the next 12 months.
0:00 Introduction
1:15 June Recap- Temperature, Precipitation, Influence of Tropical Storms, etc.
8:00 Links to the Monsoon - System is setting up - what we've seen so far, and what we can expect moving forward.
15:00 Monsoon and (early arriving) tropical storms, and the impending El Niño event - how big of a role will ENSO play in the monsoon? tropical storms?
22:30 Looking back to the El Niño event of 97-98 - how does this one compare? Could it be even bigger? What would that mean for the Southwest?
26:00 Looking towards the rest of summer, fall and winter - Given persistent El Niño- short term effects (temp & precip) vs. impact on long term trends (like drought).
29:00 Wrapping up and looking forward.
Please note: we are aware of the intermittent audio glitches in the recording, and are working towards a solution. They are brief and shouldn't interfere with the overall podcast, but we apologize for any inconvenience.
CLIMAS Member(s):
Michael Crimmins Zack Guido
We'll have a full episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast next week, but we wanted to take a quick run through the anomalous weather we saw in Mid/Late May and Early June. In this mini-version of the SW Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Ben McMahan go over the patterns we saw during this (admittedly beautiful) weather, before talking a bit about what this means looking towards the rest of the summer.
CLIMAS Member(s):
Ben McMahan Michael Crimmins
In the May 2015 Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins reconvene to talk about the Winter patterns that fed into our current situation, and how it has actually been pretty moist and cool (for this time of year) after a very warm winter. They then turn back to El Niño - which despite being hard to predict, forecast, or describe - has given us a lot to think about. They exercise some warranted caution in putting too much stock in forecasts given the "excitement" surrounding a strong El Niño event, but the patterns in place are suggesting this enthusiasm might not be misplaced. They move on to talk about how El Niño may affect tropical storm activity and monsoon patterns looking into Summer and Fall 2015, as well as the impacts of last year's monsoon (and mild weather this Spring) on fire season. Drought and water availability present a less optimistic scenario - below average winter precipitation and above average winter temperatures for most of the Western U.S. mean snowpack is well below average heading into summer, with implications for water storage and availability.
0:00 -- Intro - Our Most (Least) Favorite Month of the Year, Winter Recap & El Niño
2:20 -- Recapping Winter Patterns - Precipitation, Temperature, Record Setting Averages & "Warm West / Cold East" Jetstream Patterns
5:00 -- Jetstream as ENSO Precursor Pattern - Transition into an El Niño Event Now That the Atmosphere is Finally Cooperating
8:30 -- Different from Last Spring - Despite Similarities with Spring 2014 (in the Models) - "Excitement" in the Models
11:00 -- Caution in Forecasting El Niño - Spring Predictability Barrier - Difficulty in Modeling in the Spring, Analogs, and Small Sample Size
15:00 -- Shifts in Global Circulation - How this Affects Tropical Storm Activity & Monsoon Precipitation (for the Southwest, mainly) - Flooding Hazards with El Niño
19:30 -- Monsoon & Fire Season - Heading into Fire Season - Mixed Precipitation but Late/Wet/Cool Spring Tamping Down Early Fire Season - California and NW may be in trouble regarding Fire, while Monsoon Patterns will bring Summer Relief (for AZ and NM)
23:30 -- Recap of Winter/Spring Patterns & Streamflow - Split Flow Jetstream and Character of Spring Storms - Very "El Niño-ish" - Recap of Streamflow Projections - Below Average Winter Precipitation Across the West (Plus High Temperatures)
27:00 -- Looking Forward to the Monsoon - Hoping for a Good Monsoon That Starts on Time
If you have a question you'd like answered, you can email Ben McMahan (bmcmahan@email.arizona.edu) with "CLIMAS Podcast Question" in the subject line. You can also tweet us @CLIMAS_UA or post a question on facebook
Suggested Source/Citation:
CLIMAS: Climate Assessment for the Southwest, (2015) May 2015 SW Climate Podcast - Winter Recap Following a Mild Spring, El Niño Slotting into Place, and Looking Towards Summer - with Wildfire, Tropical Storms, and the Monsoon on Tap [podcast] CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast. Available at: climas.arizona.edu/podcast/may-2015-sw-climate-podcast-winter-recap-following-mild-spring-el-ni%C3%B1o-slotting-place-and [Date Accessed]
CLIMAS Member(s):
Michael Crimmins Zack Guido
We're introducing a new podcast series that focuses on quick and timely reporting on important climate news and information. We will emphasize stories that relate to the southwest, but we'll also include other climate related news that illustrate the impact of climate on national or global scales. And Mike, Zack, and Ben will still take a deeper look at southwestern climate issues in the monthly CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast. This episode, we're focused on record warm temperatures, drought, and snowpack across the west, along with a few stories that illustrate the downstream impact of these conditions.
This podcast is also available as a video podcast
See our blog post detailing the information from the podcast: http://www.climas.arizona.edu/blog/mini-podcastnews-southwest-climate-update-may-1-2015
Image & Story Credits - Podcast & Blog Post
2014 and 2015 Record Temperatures
National Climate Data Center (NCDC) - State of the Climate - Overview
2014 Warmest Year on Record
Figure: Decadal Averages - Annual & Decadal Global Mean Temperatures - Source: NCDC/NESDIS/NOAA
Figure: Statewide Average Temperature Ranks - Jan - Dec 2014 - Source: NCDC
Figure: Statewide Average Temperature Ranks - Jan - Mar 2015 - Source: NCDC
Figure: Westwide SNOTEL Current Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) % of Normal - Source: NRCS
State of the Drought
Drought is leading AZ to think about Water Planning
Figure: U.S. Drought Monitor Weekly Update - April 21, 2015 - Source: USDM
Figure: Northern Sierra Precip - 8-Station Index - Source: CA Dept of Water Resources
Figure: Central Arizona Project Systems Map - Source: CAP
Figure: Agricultural Use by Crop - Source: Mother Jones
Figure: Central Arizona Project Sytems Map - Source: CAP
Figure: Lake Mead Elevation - Source: CLIMAS (using Bureau of Reclamation Data)
Figure: Tier 1 Shortage - Source: April 10, 2015 UA Water Forum
Figure: Tucson Water Use - Source: Tucson Water
Bark Beetles, Tree Stress, and Climate Change
Bark Beetles Are Decimating Our Forests. That Might Actually Be a Good Thing. (Mother Jones)
Figure: Rocky Mountain Region Bark Beetle - Source: U.S. Forest Service
Figure: Arizona & New Mexico Bark Beetle Mortality - Source: U.S. Forest Service
Figure: Percentage of Trees Seen With Damage - Source: U.S. Forest Service & Karen Minot (Mother Jones)
Record Low Snowpack Across the West
Record low snowpack and drought - California water restrictions (Weather.com)
Figure: Snow Water Equivalent - Source: NRCS
Figure: California Snowpack - Source: California Department of Water Resources
FIgure: California Water Restrictions Press Conference - Source: Weather.com
Snowpack, Drought, & Energy
Information & Figures: California drought leads to less hydropower, increased natural gas generation - U.S. Energy Information Administration
Climate Change, Temperature & Precipitation Records, and Pollen
Information & Figures: Warm temperatures and a wet fall resulted in a very heavy pollen season this year. Source: http://www.earthgauge.net/2015/climate-change-pollen-and-allergy-season
CLIMAS Member(s):
Ben McMahan Emily Huddleston
In the March Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido is back from his world travels (for work!) and joins Mike Crimmins to discuss SW climate, including winter precipitation, snowpack, and temperature reports so far. They also dive into the "warm in the west, cold in the east" pattern, and talk jetstream, polar vortex, and digging troughs as it pertains to SW weather patterns. Next up is the (finally arriving!) El Niño, which is a bit late, and a bit weak, but there are interesting aspects of this year to consider looking into the next year, especially the persistent ridge that has helped drive the patterns of the past few months. Finally they wrap up by looking into next year regarding what's left of winter, and what 2015 may have in store.
Intro
0:00
Climate Summary: Precipitation in the SW (variable), Snowpack (very low), Warm temps and low snow, Drought still going strong (especially in CA), Temperature reports (record or near record temps across the west)
1:30
Polar Opposites: The "dipole" - warm in the west - cold in the east - pattern we've seen - Jetstream, Polar Vortex, and Digging Troughs - impact on SW weather
7:30
What's going on with El Niño this year?: We finally get El Niño (a weak one), but what do we make of it finally (and weakly) arriving? Limited effects expected (or experienced so far) in the SW.
11:50
Persistent Ridge: Pacific Ocean temperatures, jetstream patterns, and tropical convection - Thinking about El Niño pre-cursors and moving towards a more typical El Niño - but this is an unusual case (even exciting!) - and how does this relate to the Arctic Oscillation
15:00
El Niño and SST into Next Year?: Ocean/Atmosphere may be too late for this year and hard to predict...but with ENSO precursors and additional Kelvin Waves - might not be done with El Niño
24:00
Looking Forward: What's left for the winter? (not too much), and the drought/streamflow forecasts are not very optimistic, but there is still time for a few good winter storms, but with a weak El Niño event, uncertain what we'll see in the next 30-60 days.
25:30
If you have a question you'd like answered, you can email Ben McMahan (bmcmahan@email.arizona.edu) with "CLIMAS Podcast Question" in the subject line. You can also tweet us @CLIMAS_UA or post a question on facebook
Suggested Source/Citation:
CLIMAS: Climate Assessment for the Southwest, (2015).Mar 2015 SW Climate Podcast: Winter Weather Summary, Polar Opposites & El Niño Finally Arrives [podcast] CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast. Available at: climas.arizona.edu/podcast/mar-2015-sw-climate-podcast-winter-weather-summary-polar-opposites-el-ni%C3%B1o-finally-arrives [Date Accessed]
CLIMAS Member(s):
Michael Crimmins Zack Guido
We're trying something new. The regular monthly Southwest Climate Podcast will not change format or timing, and Mike, Zack, and Ben will continue to bring you monthly updates on SW climate issues. We're expanding our focus to something a bit broader than just the Southwest to take advantage of the numerous people who are living and breathing work on climate science, communication, outreach, education, and engagement on a daily basis.
The first episode is an interview that Dan Ferguson (CLIMAS program director) conducted with Dr. Susanne Moser, during the time she was visiting Tucson as a CCASS Distinguished Visiting Fellow in early 2015. They discuss the state of climate research, alternative or creative ways to engage people or even to think about climate and society, the power of social change, the challenges/rewards of working in this field, and perspectives on future directions for research, education, and engagement.
For now, these episodes will be embedded within the SW Climate Podcast Feed, so if you're not interested, you can skip this until next months podcast, but we think this conversation offers a lot of insight into climate science and communication, as well as possible solutions moving forward.
CLIMAS Member(s):
Daniel Ferguson
In the January Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido is back and joins Mike Crimmins to discuss the state of the climate in 2014, including the record year for Arizona and the near record year for New Mexico. They also talk about weather systems that affected our most recent temperature and precipitation patterns, the ongoing uncertainty with El Niño, or as some have started referring to it, "El Limbo", and the state of precipitation and drought in the southwest. They wrap things up looking at the seasonal outlooks and the projected trends for the coming year.
Intro
0:00
Climate Summary: Temperature and Precipitation, weak and spotty storms in December and January
1:50
Winter Storms: Water storage and winter precipitation patterns
8:00
Weather vs. Climate: Weather variability vs. Climate patterns, "El Limbo", and winter precip patterns given these trends
13:00
2014 Record Year: 2014 Temperature Records Recap
22:00
Precip and Drought: Winter patterns and drought - how much moisture "solves" the drought
24:00
Looking Forward: Jetstreams & Winter Weather Patterns + Seasonal Forecasts
27:30
If you have a question you'd like answered, you can email Zack Guido (zguido@email.arizona.edu) or Ben McMahan (bmcmahan@email.arizona.edu) with "CLIMAS Podcast Question" in the subject line. You can also tweet us @CLIMAS_UA or post a question on facebook
Suggested Source/Citation:
CLIMAS: Climate Assessment for the Southwest, (2015). 2014 Year in Review, and Stuck in El Limbo . [podcast] CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast. Available at: climas.arizona.edu/podcast/jan-2015-sw-climate-podcast-2014-year-review-and-stuck-el-limbo [Date Accessed]
CLIMAS Member(s):
Michael Crimmins Zack Guido
In the November Southwest Climate Podcast, Ben McMahan and Mike Crimmins discuss the warm autumn weather in the southwest, the transition to winter weather patterns, the ongoing uncertainty of El Niño forecasts, a recap of El Niño conditions and definitions, and the possibility of interaction between El Niño conditions and weather patterns in the southwest looking forward.
Intro
0:00
A Wet and Warm Autumn: Warmer than average temps, higher than average humidity, and a recent "cold" snap
1:00
Recap of 2014 Tropical Storm Season: A more active season in the E Pacific
7:30
El Niño Forecast Models: More on how El Niño is defined, models that go into them, and the current state of "now-casting"
13:44
El Niño Definition: Revisiting a more precise definition of El Niño and the conditions we might expect (if it ever arrives)
22:00
Looking toward the Future: Impact of El Niño conditions on the SW, and looking forward into 2015
27:00
Recap on Long Term Forecasts & Looking Forward
34:00
If you have a question you'd like answered, you can email Zack Guido (zguido@email.arizona.edu) or Ben McMahan (bmcmahan@email.arizona.edu) with "CLIMAS Podcast Question" in the subject line. You can also tweet us @CLIMAS_UA or post a question on facebook
Also, as we mentioned last month, we have a new podcast feature: video mini-segments from the podcast. We have four segments posted from previous podcasts, including:
Monsoon & Drought Q&A
SW Tropical Storm Climatology
ENSO (El Niño) Models Q&A
Norbert vs. Odile - SW Tropical Storm Comparison
And we have decided to release approximate transcripts of the podcast.
Suggested Source/Citation:
CLIMAS: Climate Assessment for the Southwest, (2014). A Warm End to Autumn and Waiting for ENSO. [podcast] CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast. Available at: climas.arizona.edu/podcast/nov-2014-sw-climate-podcast-warm-end-autumn-and-waiting-enso [Date Accessed]
CLIMAS Member(s):
Ben McMahan Michael Crimmins
In the October Southwest Climate Podcast, CLIMAS climate scientists Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins discuss the 2014 monsoon, focusing on the influence of tropical storm systems, record and near-record precipitation events, monsoon intensity and duration, and the ever-present promise of El Niño.
Intro
0:00
Monsoon/Precipitation Recap: Including influence of tropical storms, record/near-record precipitation, comparison to 2013
1:00
Tropical storm influence: Extending the monsoon and driving seasonal totals
10:00
El Niño Forecast Models: Predicting a wet fall/winter, El Niño influence, Kelvin wave effects and warm waters in the Pacific
15:10
El Niño "Now-Casting": Unique case to watch, why El Niño has been hard to predict
20:00
Drought Mitigation and Winter Precip: - El Niño conditions are favorable and it's almost here
26:00
Recap & Looking Forward: (Arctic Oscillation)
31:30
If you have a question you'd like answered, you can email Zack Guido (zguido@email.arizona.edu) or Ben McMahan (bmcmahan@email.arizona.edu) with "CLIMAS Podcast Question" in the subject line. You can also tweet us @CLIMAS_UA or post a question on facebook
Also, as we mentioned last month, we have a new podcast feature: video mini-segments from the podcast. We have four segments posted from previous podcasts, including:
Monsoon & Drought Q&A
SW Tropical Storm Climatology
ENSO (El Niño) Models Q&A
Norbert vs. Odile - SW Tropical Storm Comparison
And we have decided to release approximate transcripts of the podcast.
Suggested Source/Citation:
CLIMAS: Climate Assessment for the Southwest, (2014). Monsoon Recap and an El Niño Double Dip. [podcast] CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast. Available at: climas.arizona.edu/podcast/oct-2014-sw-climate-podcast-monsoon-recap-and-el-ni%C3%B1o-double-dip [Date Accessed]
CLIMAS Member(s):
Michael Crimmins Zack Guido
In the September Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins talk about tropical storm climatology, details about Norbert and Odile, explore the details of the "Kelvin Wave", and answer a question about El Niño models submitted by a listener.
Intro & Recap:
0:00
Tropical Storm Climatology
10:06
Norbert Vs. Odile
14:45
What is a Kelvin Wave?
27:53
El Niño Models (Question from listener)
29:45
We are introducing a new feature: video mini-segments from the podcast. The first of which comes from last month's podcast, and addresses monsoon & drought in response to a listener question, and is viewable on youtube. This month's video podcasts will be added to this page as we release them
If you have a question you'd like answered, you can email Zack Guido (zguido@email.arizona.edu) or Ben McMahan (bmcmahan@email.arizona.edu) with "CLIMAS Podcast Question" in the subject line. You can also tweet us @CLIMAS_UA or post a question on facebook
Also, we are introducing a new feature: video mini-segments from the podcast. The first of which comes from last month's podcast, and addresses monsoon & drought in response to a listener question, and is viewable on youtube.
CLIMAS Member(s):
Michael Crimmins Zack Guido
In the August Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins talk about variability and timing of monsoon precipitation, and why frequent and sustained moisture might matter more than heavy infrequent rains (for drought, especially). El Niño is still dragging its heels, but it still looks good for a weak to moderate event this winter. Zack and Mike also answer questions submitted by listeners, including one on "weather" vs. "climate" and how the monsoon is a good way to think about this distinction, and another on whether the monsoon and El Niño can really help with a long term drought.
If you have a question you'd like answered, you can email Zack Guido (zguido@email.arizona.edu) or Ben McMahan (bmcmahan@email.arizona.edu) with "CLIMAS Podcast Question" in the subject line. You can also tweet us @CLIMAS_UA or post a question on facebook
CLIMAS Member(s):
Michael Crimmins Zack Guido
1075’ – Shortage on the Colorado River is a CLIMAS podcast series that explores what the first ever shortage declaration on the Colorado River would mean to those living in the Southwest. In this episode, CLIMAS climate scientist Zack Guido speaks with Alan Forrest, Director of Tucson Water, about various strategies that Tucson implemented to deal with potential water shortages, the conservation and recapture efforts that municipalities in Southern Arizona, and the practical realities of providing municipal water to an growing population in the southwest.
CLIMAS Member(s):
Ryan Thomas Zack Guido
1075’ – Shortage on the Colorado River is a CLIMAS podcast series that explores what the first ever shortage declaration on the Colorado River would mean to those living in the Southwest. In this episode, CLIMAS climate scientist Zack Guido talks to Dennis Rule, manager of the Central Arizona Groundwater Replenishment District (CAGRD), about the importance of CAGRD in the management of Arizona groundwater and potential impacts on the system from continued drought in the Colorado River Basin.
CLIMAS Member(s):
Ryan Thomas Zack Guido
1075’ – Shortage on the Colorado River is a CLIMAS podcast series that explores what the first ever shortage declaration on the Colorado River would mean to those living in the Southwest. In this episode, CLIMAS climate scientist Zack Guido and Mohammed Mahmoud, planning analyst with the Colorado River Programs department at the Central Arizona Project (CAP), discuss the CAP and its role in delivering Colorado River water throughout Arizona, as well as how a shortage would impact the CAP system.
CLIMAS Member(s):
Ryan Thomas Zack Guido
In the July Southwest Climate Podcast, CLIMAS climate scientists Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins talk about the solid start to the monsoon, and seemingly inevitable monsoon breaks (like we just experienced). They also discuss the "inevitability" of this fickle El Niño event. There’s a feeling of Groundhog Day with these forecasts—and there continues to be uncertainty regarding the strength and duration of this El Niño event.
CLIMAS Member(s):
Michael Crimmins Zack Guido
1075’ – Shortage on the Colorado River is a CLIMAS podcast series that explores what the first ever shortage declaration on the Colorado River would mean to those living in the Southwest. In this episode, CLIMAS climate scientist Zack Guido hosts three University of Arizona experts, Bonnie Colby, George Frisvold and Kiyomi Morino, to discuss water supply and demand in the Colorado River basin. This podcast explores stressors on the Colorado River Basin, how these stressors may change over time, and how these changes may affect management and behaviors across the Southwest.
CLIMAS Member(s):
Zack Guido
1075’ – Shortage on the Colorado River is a CLIMAS podcast series that explores what the first ever shortage declaration on the Colorado River would mean to those living in the Southwest. In this episode, we take a broad view of the Colorado River Basin, exploring how the river is managed, who uses the water, and what a potential shortage could mean for the system. Our guest will be Doug Kenney, Director of the Western Water Policy Program at the University of Colorado School of Law.
CLIMAS Member(s):
Ryan Thomas Zack Guido
In the June Southwest Climate Podcast, CLIMAS climate scientists Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins discuss the ongoing drought conditions (especially at Mike's house), the recent slowdown of a seemingly inevitable El Niño event, and potential impacts of a climate collision between the El Niño and the Monsoon. The next 6 months will be interesting…
CLIMAS Member(s):
Michael Crimmins Zack Guido
CLIMAS climate scientists Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins discuss the recent rain and snow in the Southwest within the context of the record dry and warm winter, as well as the dramatically warming Pacific Ocean that increasingly hints at an upcoming El Niño.
CLIMAS Member(s):
Michael Crimmins Zack Guido
Zack Guido, CLIMAS staff scientist, discusses the scant precipitation across the West over the last few months and the persistent weather patterns causing this dry weather with Tucson radio host Bill Buckmaster.
CLIMAS Member(s):
Zack Guido
In the January Southwest Climate Podcast, CLIMAS climate scientists Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins discuss the scant precipitation in recent months across the West and the role of the "ridiculously resilient ridge" – a persistent area of high pressure parked off the West Coast – in steering storms away from the region.
CLIMAS Member(s):
Michael Crimmins Zack Guido
Zack Guido, CLIMAS staff scientist, discusses the causes and consequences of the current La Niña on Southern Arizona weather with Tucson radio host Bill Buckmaster.
CLIMAS Member(s):
Zack Guido
CLIMAS climate scientists discuss September's extreme soggy weather and its role in busting drought (or not) in the Southwest and whether climate change's finger print can be seen in the recent storms.
In the August Podcast J.J. Brost, Science and Operations Officer for the National Weather Service in Tucson and Mike Crimmins join Zack Guido for a retrospective of the monsoon season for the Tucson area.
The monsoon is here! Zack Guido, Mike Crimmins, and guest speaker J.J. Brost from the National Weather Service discuss the mechanics behind the monsoon, what we can expect from the rest of the season, and the mechanics behind fires starting at the beginning of the monsoon, such as the Yarnell fire near Prescott.
In this edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido discusses a 470-year tree-ring reconstruction of the Southwest Monsoon with Dan Griffin, PhD candidate in the UofA Geography department and author of the recently published record.
In this month's Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido, Mike Crimmins, and Gregg Garfin discuss how this winter has influenced the status of drought, the snowpack situation, and streamflow forecasts across both Arizona and New Mexico.
What has been the character of the past "decade of drought" in AZ and NM? Can we still expect to see a large wildfire season? What are the climate models showing for this year's monsoon? Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins answer these questions and much more in this month's episode.
What can we expect from the fast-approaching fire season? Is it too early to say anything about this year's monsoon season? Learn the answers to these and other questions in this month's Southwest Climate Podcast.
Was the "blizzard" in February unprecedented for Arizona, and did climate change play any role? In this month's podcast, Gregg Garfin and Zack Guido discuss this and the influence the storm and recent temperatures had on the state's snowpack. They also explore the status of drought in both Arizona and New Mexico, and what the precipitation forecast looks like for the next few months.
Why was the Southwest so cold in January? What's this buzz phrase "Sudden Stratospheric Warming" mean? Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins discuss this and much more in this month's Southwest Climate Podcast.
In this month's episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido, Gregg Garfin, and Mike Crimmins discuss the status of drought in the Southwest region, current snowpack conditions, and what we can expect from the coming months.
In this month's SW Climate Podcast, Zack Guido, Mike Crimmins and Gregg Garfin give us a peak into what we can expect to see in the coming months. They also discuss the current state of drought and our water supply here in Arizona and New Mexico, as well as the status of El Nino and what our version of Hurricane Sandy might look like.
In this month's episode, Zack Guido, Mike Crimmins and Gregg Garfin discuss the status of drought in AZ and NM, how ENSO is developing and the forecast for the next few months.