Podcast Archives - Oxford Institute for Energy Studies: Recent Episodes
Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
In this latest OIES podcast from the Electricity Programme, Dimitra Apostolopoulou engages in a discussion with Charlie Wilson, Professor of Energy and Climate Change at the Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, and Dr. Yee Van Fan, Senior Research Associate at the same institute about their latest paper titled “AI’s Indirect Impacts On Climate Outweigh Concerns Over Its Direct Energy Footprint” which was part of the recent Oxford Energy Forum on Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Its Implications For Electricity Systems. Charlie opens the discussion by presenting a taxonomy of AI’s impacts on energy systems, categorising them into direct, indirect, and systemic effects. We then elaborate on the direct impacts of AI on electricity systems, highlighting potential localised challenges that may emerge. The focus then shifts to the indirect impacts of AI, i.e., the energy consumed or saved by using AI in various domains, where Yee Van talks about the challenges of quantifying them. The podcast concludes with a reflection on the further research and strategic actions needed to enhance understanding and governance of AI’s indirect contributions to the energy transition.
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In this podcast, Hasan Muslemani speaks to Paulo Carvalho about key takeaways from their forthcoming OIES research paper on green steel standards and definitions. The podcast provides an overview of different terminology and examples used to describe low-carbon emission steel in the market today and evaluates reasons why complexity and divergence exist between different standards and regions. The authors also discuss results of interviews held with key industry experts including steel buyers over perception and demand for the green product, before concluding with recommendations for industry to overcome challenges and enable investment in low-carbon technologies.
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In this latest podcast Michal Meidan talks to Anders Hove about some of the latest developments in China’s power sector. They discuss impressions from Anders’ recent trip to Beijing, insights on electricity demand and the latest (rather confusing) moves in power sector reforms. Michal and Anders also talk about the outlook for renewable deployment in China as well as the implications of electrification on oil demand.
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In this latest OIES podcast from the Electricity Programme, Dimitra Apostolopoulou talks to Senior Research Fellow David Robinson and Independent Researcher Plutarco Naranjo about the Oxford Energy Forum (OEF) issue titled “Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Its Implications for Electricity Systems”. In this podcast, we provide an overview the OEF and discuss David’s and Plutarco’s paper titled: “The AI arms race and electricity needs”. The conversation begins with a summary of what AI is and how Large Language Models (LLMs) contribute to an increase in data centre energy needs with their training and inference phases. Building on this, David discusses how renewable energy and other sources, such as nuclear, can mitigate the direct impacts of AI and power the surge in data centre demand. The discussion then broadens to examine AI’s indirect influence on climate change, followed by insights into how AI could improve the operation of decarbonised and decentralised power systems. Plutarco also addresses the cybersecurity risks associated with these increasingly complex systems. Finally, the conversation turns to the role of policy in guiding the sustainable development of AI to support the broader energy transition.
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In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Jonathan Stern and Maria Olczak about their latest research on methane emissions in the energy sector. Firstly, Jonathan outlines his thoughts on what progress has, or has not, been made since methane emissions became a focus of industry attention five years ago. He summarises his thoughts by outlining his four “A”s – awareness of the issue has improved, agreements have been signed underlining its importance, aims to improve the situation have seen targets created but achievements have been somewhat more limited and disappointing. Jonathan also discusses the impact of the Trump administration on US methane emission targets and incentives and considers the impact on the LNG industry. Maria then picks up the topic from an EU perspective, discussing how the EU methane regulation could be transformative for the global gas market and could change the way that the EU selects its sources of gas supply. She looks at the biggest practical and technical hurdles ton its implementation and considers whether the Commission’s new focus on competitiveness and affordability could dilute the impact of the regulation in the years ahead.
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In this podcast, Hasan Muslemani speaks to Nnaziri ihejirika about carbon capture and utilisation (CCU) as a carbon management tool and its role in the energy transition. The podcast discusses different definitions of CCU and of emerging carbon utilisation pathways, including biochar production, manufacture of concrete and aggregate materials, and production of e-fuels and e-chemicals. The podcast also highlights issues around storage permanence and interactions with CCS and carbon removal developments.
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In this latest OIES podcast, from the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Bill Farren-Price and Jack Sharples about their latest research on the future of Russian gas flows. Bill first provides some context for the discussion in terms of the search for a ceasefire in Ukraine and the development of US-Russia relations, highlighting the possibility of sanctions being removed on Russian LNG. He discusses the potential impact of the arrival of LNG from the Arctic LNG 2 project, which has been hardest hot by sanctions to date, and considers the various incentives and price outcomes. Jack then considers pipeline flows, looking at the various routes for Russian gas to Europe and discussing the practical, regulatory and contractual challenges that would face any rebound in gas exports. His overall conclusion is that it will be difficult to see any significant short term increase, and that by the time Russian gas could return it will be encountering a much more competitive gas market as new LNG projects come online.
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In this latest OIES podcast, from the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Bill Farren-Price, Jack Sharples and Anouk Honore about the latest Gas Quarterly and their thoughts on the current state of the global gas market. Bill opens the podcast with a review of the current market drivers and the main catalysts of the recent decline, with a focus on the impact of US tariffs as well as more fundamental gas supply and demand. Anouk picks up the story with a review of Europe gas demand over the winter of 2024/25, highlighting the increasing volatility of gas demand in the power sector, the struggle for demand recovery in the industrial sector and the impact of cold weather on residential consumers. Finally, Jack reviews global LNG supply, the main shifts in demand in Asia and the impact on LNG availability to Europe. He then looks at how LNG fits into the overall European supply picture before concluding with a look at the storage market and what it implies for future prices.
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In April 2025, the China Programme published an issue of the Oxford Energy Forum on the topic of EV and battery supply chains. The aim of the Forum was to think about how other world regions are seeking to react to the rapidly increasing dominance of China in global battery and EV supply chains. In this podcast Bill Farren-Price talks to Anders Hove to get an overview of the key themes of the Forum. In particular, they discuss the implications of the Trump administration’s tariffs for EV supply chains in the US and Mexico, how developing world economies are navigating the need to work with China while not becoming overly dependant on new technology imports, and how European countries are facing difficult choices when attempting to localize battery production while protecting home industries. A common theme is diversity: while all countries face similar challenges, and are deploying well-established policy tools, their different starting conditions and resource endowments makes a common approach unlikely. Fragmentation is even evident in Europe, where EU efforts at localizing manufacturing and encouraging tech transfer run up against differing priorities of automakers and member states like Hungary. The strategic and economic importance of the car industry makes it inevitable that countries will continue to search for ways to localize production and compete with China. But China’s first-mover advantage and the immense scale of China’s domestic EV market will make it difficult to replicate China’s success.
The post OIES Podcast – EVs and Battery Supply Chains: Issues and Impacts appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
In this latest OIES podcast from the Electricity Programme, Dimitra Apostolopoulou talks to Doctoral Fellow Anas Damoun about his latest paper co-authored with Rahmat Poudineh titled “Economics of Electricity Grid Interconnections: A Heterogeneous Markets’ Design Context”. In this podcast, we discuss the critical role of interconnections in the energy transition as well as analyse the numerous benefits, e.g., technical, commercial and economic, they entail. We differentiate between homogeneous and heterogeneous interconnections since they connect countries with different market structures. We provide insights into the magnitude of interconnection benefits that depend on their efficient utilisation, which is harder to achieve in the heterogeneous case. Next, Anas discusses ways of improving the utilisation of heterogeneous interconnections with the use, among others, of long-term cross-border contracts and distancing cross-border scheduling from real-time dispatch. Last, we discuss the overall challenges that interconnections face and ways to overcome them.
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In this latest OIES podcast from the Electricity Programme, Dimitra Apostolopoulou talks to Senior Research Fellow Malcolm Keay about his latest paper titled “The UK’s Decarbonisation Objectives and the Role of Great British Energy” and the latest developments and key challenges of the Review of Electricity Market Arrangements (REMA). We start our discussion with the great progress the UK has made in its decarbonisation targets. We continue diving into the challenges of scaling up investments in renewable generation, storage resources, and demand-side flexibility, as well as the role of Great British Energy. We then focus on REMA and discuss the latest developments, such as locational pricing. Last, we discuss REMA’s main missing components, such as policy alignment, retail markets, nuclear generation and interconnections. An example of policy misalignment is the UK’s goal to become an artificial intelligence (AI) superpower and the rising electricity prices. AI is very energy-intensive, and countries with lower electricity costs will likely enjoy a competitive advantage compared to the UK.
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In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Anne-Sophie Corbeau about the EU’s plans for renewable hydrogen, with a particular focus on the industrial sector. The discussion starts with a description of the current state of the hydrogen market in Europe before defining the nature of renewable hydrogen in particular and explaining why it is being given such a high priority by the EU. The targets set in the RED III directive are then discussed, before we move on to the actions being taken by individual member states to implement them and the implications of the divergences that are emerging between countries. We then look at particular sectors which are being affected by the new initiatives and look at the question of cost competitiveness and the need to incentivise demand in order to support the transition process. Finally, we examine the need for new infrastructure and assess whether enough is being done to ensure that the full hydrogen value chain is in place.
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In this OIES podcast, Hasan Muslemani speaks to Ole Henrik Ree at Microsoft about the latest developments in the carbon dioxide removals (CDR) market. The podcast discusses the role and importance that CDR plays as part of corporate climate strategies, challenges faced by companies when procuring CDR solutions, and the makeup of the existing market and how it may evolve in the future. The podcast also evaluates different CDR technologies, such as direct air capture, bioenergy with CCS, and biochar, including quality metrics and the need for public acceptance to take projects through final investment decisions. The podcast highlights the urgent need to deploy CDR solutions today to realistically reach stated corporate net-zero targets.
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In this latest podcast from the OIES China Energy Programme, Michal Meidan, Anders Hove and Philip Andrews-Speed take stock of the macroeconomic environment, the government’s recent efforts to support activity and what it means for energy demand. They discuss oil and gas consumption, rising electric vehicle penetration as well as the rapid deployment of renewables. They take stock of recent policy announcements on new nuclear plant approvals as well as carbon and power market reform.
The post OIES Podcast – China’s economic downturn: what does it mean for energy? appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Bill Farren-Price about the latest Oxford Energy Forum which includes a series of articles under the banner “Gas to 2030: transition, supply risk and market uncertainty.” After an initial discussion about the key themes in the Forum, we delve into the geopolitical and regulatory risks that are likely to shape the future of the gas market, including the impact of climate policies and the energy transition. We then move to some more detailed topics including the prospects for exports from the East Mediterranean region, the outlook for Norwegian supply, Turkmenistan’s export plans and challenges and the future of US shale. Moving to the demand side we look at the uncertain future for gas in China and India, while also considering the more positive outlook for LNG in North-East Asia. We also discuss the impact of the REPowerEU plans in Europe and consider how renewables is replacing gas in the power sector. Finally, we look at some longer term transition scenarios, focusing on the likelihood of a fragmented transition and what this means for gas, before concluding on potential political drivers over the rest of this decade.
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In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Katja Yafimava and Agnieszka Ason about the latest EU sanctions package aimed at Russian LNG. After a brief introduction discussing the sanctions that have been imposed on Russian LNG to date, mainly by the US authorities, we look at the 14th EU sanctions package and the measures that it has introduced to curtail Russia’s activities in the LNG sector. We discuss the three key areas impacted by the sanctions, namely a ban on LNG deliveries to specific EU terminals, although not to the EU as a whole, a ban on trans-shipment of Russian LNG for onward transport and a ban on providing good, services or technology to Russian LNG projects. The overall conclusion is that the EU probably went as far as it could without banning the import of Russian LNG to the continent outright, and progress in any legal processes at the small number of terminals where a ban has been imposed will be instructive should the EU decide to broaden the sanctions at a later date. In addition, it will be interesting to see how the commercial terms in trans-shipment and supply contracts are managed in the grace period to early 2025, after which the full ban will be implemented.
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In this latest podcast, Michal Meidan talks to Belinda Schäpe about the challenges and prospects of steel sector decarbonisation in China. They discuss the key takeaways from Belinda’s paper “Decarbonising China’s Steel Sector: Challenges and Opportunities” such as: the challenges to shifting toward greener steel production including overcapacity in the sector, coal dependence, and economic uncertainty. Belinda also discusses the green shoots of progress including the lack of new coal-based steel capacity in 2024 to date. She talks about the opportunities in steel sector decarbonisation including China’s focus on innovation in new technologies such as green hydrogen steel production, new regulatory measures to support green steel in public procurement as well as enhanced recycling efforts. Michal and Belinda also discuss international initiatives like the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism and their impact on China’s steel sector.
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In this podcast, Hasan Muslemani speaks to Nnaziri Ihijerika about his recent publication on regulatory frameworks for crossborder CO2 transport, specifically between the UK and EU. Nnaziri highlights the role that CCS is expected to play in decarbonizing European industries and specific regulatory barriers to transporting CO2 across borders. In particular, the podcast discusses how issues around the London Protocol are addressed, implications of the current setups of the EU and UK Emission Trading Systems on CO2 transport, and potential demand for and supply of transport and storage services across Europe.
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In this latest OIES podcast from the Electricity Programme, Dimitra Apostolopoulou talks to OIES Visiting Research Fellow Farhad Billimoria about his latest paper co-authored with Rahmat Poudineh and Jacob Mays titled “Hedging and Tail Risk in Electricity Markets”. A concern persistent in current electricity market designs has been the sufficiency of hedge markets and the capability to secure long-term contracts to underpin investment in capital-intensive generation plants. In this podcast we discuss the factors leading to these missing markets; such as retailer creditworthiness, market structure and the lack of demand side interest from consumers. We stress the key insight of the paper that contractability will be improved in future low carbon systems compared to today’s thermal dominated power systems. This is due to the fact that thermal portfolios are dominated by volatile fat-tailed commodities with significant tail dependence compared to higher tail-diversity of a renewable portfolio. Last, we discuss the some policy implication of this conclusion.
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In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Bill Farren-Price, Anouk Honoré and Jack Sharples about the key themes in the latest OIES Gas Quarterly, that was published in late July. After a brief overview on current gas prices, the discussion turns to LNG supply and specifically to the impact of sanctions on Russian LNG exports. The podcast then considers demand for LNG, looking at the flows to the major import markets in Europe and Asia and analysing the rebound in demand in Asia that has dragged supplies to the East. Supply to Europe continues to be made up of indigenous supply and pipeline imports as well as LNG, and the discussion covers all these topics before looking at the main trends in European gas demand in the key power, industrial and residential sectors. The discussants then consider the outlook for gas markets in the coming winter and into 2025, and also look at potential major events that could cause significant disruptions and drive prices up or down sharply.
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In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Jonathan Stern, Katja Yafimava and Agnieszka Ason about the recent arbitration court ruling on the case brought by Uniper against Gazprom. They discuss the background to the case, the specific rulings given by the court and the implications the outcome for the future of Russian gas exports to Europe. In particular, they look at the possible rationale for the decision both in terms of the award of €13 billion of damages to Uniper and also the right to terminate its long-term contract with Gazprom. They also ask why the arbitration court did not accept Gazprom’s claim of force majeure, look at whether there is much chance of Uniper collecting the damages awarded to it and consider whether other European customers of Gazprom may now be encouraged to pursue cases against the company. Finally, they look at the implications for other gas exporters to Europe, discussing whether this ruling marks the beginning of the end of Russian gas exports to Europe, meaning that this is more room for extra LNG to arrive in the continent.
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In this latest OIES podcast, which is a combined presentation from the Gas and Energy Transition programmes, James Henderson talks to Katja Yafimava and Jonathan Stern about the implications of the EU Decarbonised Gas and Hydrogen Package, which will enter into force on the 4th of August 2024 and will provide rules for decarbonizing the EU gas system. They discuss the overall goals of the latest decarbonised gas and hydrogen package and consider what it means for security of gas supply in Europe. They consider the levels of flexibility that it offers, given the uncertainty about future levels of hydrogen demand and the timescale on which they may be achieved, and also look at the questions of financing and co-ordination of the shift from the supply of one gaseous fuel to another. They also ask whether the new legislation really addresses some of the key issues concerning hydrogen in Europe, in particular whether it actually encourages the rapid development of a hydrogen market. They conclude that although the new rules are a good first step in the process, the regulation may well need to be adapted in the light of real-world practicalities.
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In this latest OIES podcast from the Gas and Energy Transition Programmes James Henderson talks to Prof. Jonathan Stern and Maria Olczak about their latest Energy Insight ‘Analysing the EU Methane Regulation: what is changing, for whom and by when’. This regulation introduces new rules for measurement-based Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV), Leak Detection and Repair (LDAR), and limits on routine venting and flaring across the oil, gas, and coal supply chains. Moreover, the EU is the first jurisdiction to set methane-related requirements for fossil fuel imports, which will be implemented gradually from 2025 to 2030. The podcasts provides the background to the new rules, considers the key components of the regulation and what it means for the EU operators and EU exporters. In addition the authors discuss their views on the impact on new and existing LNG contracts and what the response of exporters to the EU might be.
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In this latest OIES podcast from the Gas Programme James Henderson talks to Mike Fulwood about this latest work on Energy Transition Scenarios and their impact on Natural Gas. The podcast starts by discussing the key methodologies that have been used to generate the OIES scenarios before moving on to describe the three key outputs from the modelling process – the Declared Policies Scenario, the Net Zero with CCS Scenario and the Fragmented Scenario. Mike reviews the supply and demand outcomes for natural gas in each of the scenarios and looks at the contrasting impacts for specific regions and sectors. Future trade flows and prices are also discussed, before the debate turns to the future of decarbonised gases such as hydrogen and the need for CCUS to play a critical role if natural gas is to remain as a core part of the energy system to 2050. Finally, the emissions impact of the various scenarios is also reviewed in comparison with a Net Zero scenario.
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In this latest OIES podcast from the hydrogen programme James Henderson talks to Alex Barnes about his latest paper on the importance of measuring the carbon intensity of low carbon hydrogen. The discussion focuses on the importance of being able to compare the carbon intensity of different forms of “green” energy, and specifically how hydrogen producers need to be able to demonstrate the emissions benefit which their product is bringing. Alex Barnes argues that proper comparison of low carbon hydrogen produced in different countries and using different forms of electricity requires a common methodology for measuring emissions along the value chain, and a common nomenclature based on carbon intensity to avoid the confusion over terms. Without this, low carbon hydrogen faces high regulatory risk because it is entirely dependent on government intervention – whether subsidies or targets – to support its business case. As a result, only rigorous accounting standards, backed up by flexible government support based on carbon intensity, will enable investment in low carbon hydrogen supply, infrastructure and demand where it makes the most sense – both financially and environmentally.
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In this latest OIES podcast, Michal Meidan talks to Agniezska Ason, senior visiting research fellow at the OIES, and Julio Dal Poz, managing director at FTI consulting, about contracts for difference and how they can be used in the low carbon energy transition.
They discuss how Contracts for Difference (CfDs) are currently used to support the decarbonisation of electricity generation, their contribution to providing predictable revenues for operators but also their limitations: the regulatory and market risks associated with them. They talk about the lessons from the UK experience and efforts to use CfDs in Europe before assessing their current and potential uses for CCS as well as for hydrogen.
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In this latest OIES China Energy programme podcast, Michal Meidan talks to Brad Simmons about US policies to re-shore and friend-shore lithium-ion battery supply chains and their incompatibility with efforts to limit dependencies on China. They discuss the electric vehicle subsidies under the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and how tax eligibility is complicated by “foreign entity of concern” (FEOC) restrictions which effectively seek to limit China’s market share could slow electrification. Given China’s dominance across these supply chains, disentangling them leads to costly trade-offs. Original equipment manufacturers are increasingly caught in the middle of these geopolitical dynamics, and will be expected to make very substantial changes to sourcing and supply chain configurations along extremely limited timelines. Brad and Michal talk about the hurdles that the IRA tax credit schemes impose across the supply chain: from the geological mismatch in minerals through the cathode supply chain and nickel production in Indonesia and through to the anode supply chain.
The post OIES Podcast – Are US efforts to de-risk and decarbonise its battery supply chains incompatible? appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
In this podcast, Head of China Energy Research Michal Meidan speaks with Anders Hove, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute, about the topic of clean energy innovation in China. They discuss the factors that have enabled China’s transition into an innovation powerhouse, including often cited government support and subsidy schemes, as well as less appreciated factors such as entrepreneurship and manufacturing hubs.
China dominates manufacturing of the main clean energy technologies currently scaling up worldwide, especially wind, solar, batteries and EVs – a situation that has pushed many advanced economies to adopt various policies aimed at catching up. For many years, advanced economies seemed to hold a durable advantage in innovation, while China held the advantage in low-cost manufacturing, but this distinction appears to have largely disappeared. As policy makers look at policies to promote manufacturing, the interaction between China’s clean energy manufacturing and innovation appears less well understood. Too often, China’s technology advantage is explained mainly in terms of subsidies and low costs. Anders and Michal discuss these issues which are discussed in Anders’ forthcoming paper, ‘Clean energy innovation in China: fact and fiction, and implications for the future’.
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In this podcast Bassam Fattouh discusses with Ilia Bouchouev his Energy Comments in the OIES Energy Quantamentals series based on his new book “Virtual Barrels” and the growing importance of financial barrels in the oil market, with a focus on financial market participants, oil options and volatility trading. They set the stage by defining “virtual barrels” and how these evolved in the oil market. They look at algorithmic oil trading and geopolitical risk premium, as well as the complex relationship between oil prices, inflation, interest rates and the US dollar. They debate the growth potential of option trading in the oil market and the implications therein, before concluding with some thoughts on what all these mean for oil market volatility moving forward.
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In this latest OIES podcast, from the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Graeme Bethune about his latest paper on the outlook for LNG in Japan, Korea and Taiwan. They begin by exploring the history of gas, and in particular LNG imports, in the region before moving on to look at Japan specifically. They consider how the role of gas is being affected by the restart of nuclear power in the country and the rise of renewable energy while also discussing the importance of coal as a competing fuel. They look at Japan’s LNG contracting strategy and ask what they implies for the next two decades, while also discussing efforts that are being made to decarbonise the gas sector. They then consider similar questions for Korea and Taiwan and highlight the key similarities and differences between the three countries before looking at the overall outlook for LNG demand to 2050 and discussing a number of upside and downside scenarios and the drivers behind them.
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In this podcast, Hasan Muslemani speaks to Peter Webb about the key role that shipping of CO2 plays in enabling a carbon capture and storage (CCS) market, especially for industrial emitters who are not in proximity to a pipeline network. The podcast highlights the technical challenges involved in CO2 shipping and how it compares to other forms of CO2 transport such as pipelines, trucks and rail, while reflecting on synergies with transport of LNG and LPG. The podcast also discusses costs of CO2 shipping and an overview of the regions where it is expected to play an important role.
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As wind and solar rise as a share of electricity production in many regions, electric power systems are experiencing increased concerns about how to maintain stability. One critical factor is inertia, which refers to the availability of spinning resources such as turbines that help the system maintain stable frequency during short disturbances. In this podcast from the OIES Electricity Programme, OIES Senior Research Fellow Anders Hove talks to David Victor, Professor and Director at UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy (GPS), and Staffan Qvist, the CEO of tech consultancy QuantifiedCarbon, about the complex but critical topic of inertia in electric power systems. They discuss their recent paper, ‘Meeting the Challenge of Reliability on Todays Electricity Grids: The Critical Role of Inertia’, and go into detail on several policy issues raised by their research. In particular, the conversation looks at what countries are doing to maintain inertia, what investments will be required, and what regulations or market reforms are needed to insure systems maintain inertia as renewables continue to rise.
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In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Mike Fulwood about the results of the latest IGU gas price survey. Mike has been conducting the survey, which looks at the formation methodologies and levels of wholesale gas prices, since 2005, with more than 100 countries now included. During the podcast they discuss the change in price formation away from oil-linked pricing towards gas-on-gas market pricing as well as the gradual decline in regulated prices over the past 18 years. They contrast the differing approaches in different regions and also consider the significant increase in spot LNG trading since 2016, when the first US LNG export project was launched. On price levels the discussion centers around the overall increase in the average global price over the period but also looks at the impact of the 2022 energy crisis in various regions and how the differing regional pricing models impacted global trade over the past two years.
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In this latest OIES podcast, from the Electricity Programme, Michal Meidan talks to Dimitra Apostolopoulou about her forthcoming OIES paper “Reforming Capacity Markets: How to Incorporate the Flexibility of Residential Consumers?”. In the energy transition resource adequacy has become more challenging due to insufficient market revenues driven by lower electricity prices and the missing money problem. In this regard, capacity markets are introduced to compensate resources for capacity thus providing an additional stream of revenues. In this podcast we discuss limitations of current capacity markets designs and how they need to adapt to a low carbon system. We stress the important role of demand response in resource adequacy where consumers can express their “value for capacity”. We then discuss the barriers faced especially by residential demand response to participate in capacity markets and propose a business model of how these can be overcome
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In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Kong Chyong about his latest paper which provides a stress test of Europe’s shift from Russian gas to renewables using a global energy model. After discussing the methodology behind Kong’s analysis they consider some of the critical components which can provide resilience to the European energy system, especially in extreme events and look at how the generation mix has become increasingly reliant on LNG in extreme weather scenarios. The conversation then moves on to the way in which storage dynamics have evolved given the loss of flexibility that had been provided by Russian gas contracts, and the importance of interconnections within Europe is also discussed. Finally, the podcast considers the role of other fuels such as coal and nuclear in providing back-up to the growing role of wind and solar and assesses the impact on CO2 emissions.
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In this latest OIES podcast, from the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Anouk Honore and Jack Sharples about their contributions to the latest Gas Quarterly, published in early April 2024. They discuss the evolution of gas prices over the winter of 2023/24 and the key factors driving a relatively benign market outcome. Relatively soft demand, caused by warm weather and slow economic growth, more than offset the impact of a number of geopolitical events that might otherwise have caused significant price spikes. In particular, we examine the demand trends in Europe and discuss whether there is any expectation of a rebound in 2024, while also considering demand in Asia and the outlook for both pipeline and LNG supplies in the coming 12 months. We also look at the level of storage in Europe and the prospects for the summer injection season, while considering the implications of a potential end to gas transit through Ukraine as its contract with Russia expires at the end of December 2024.
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In this latest podcast from the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Vitaly Yermakov about his March report ‘Follow the Money: Understanding Russia’s oil and gas revenues’ which tracks hydrocarbon export revenues and the significant part they play in public finances. Russia’s oil and gas revenues have proven volatile in recent years – on top of commodity price cyclicality, western sanctions post-Ukraine have forced Russia to develop new outlets for oil and gas exports. While the Ministry of Finance has continued to publish revenue data, a lot of the other data sets relating to the industry have been suspended. This has made these data critical to understanding Moscow’s approach towards oil and gas taxes and its broader economic strategy under the pressures of the Ukraine war and western sanctions.
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In this latest podcast from the China programme, Michal Meidan talks to Kevin Tu about the outlook for China’s coal chemicals industry in an increasingly carbon constrained world. Drawing on Kevin’s paper ‘Prospects of the Chinese coal chemical industry in an increasingly carbon-constrained world’, they discuss the political and economic importance of the sector in China. Kevin discusses the layout of China’s coal chemicals industry and how a growing emphasis on energy security is supporting its growth. In addition, a focus by local governments on investments, especially in the post pandemic recovery, is further sustaining the sector. But the coal chemical industry in China is plagued by overcapacity and, in the context of the country’s dual carbon goals of peaking national carbon emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality before 2060, it will become harder to sustain. Technological innovation and adaptation is one way forward, but post-2030, the outlook is increasingly challenging. Kevin and Michal discuss these opposing trends and how they are likely to play out.
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In this latest OIES podcast Hasan Muslemani talks to Frank Felder about his forthcoming OIES paper ‘The Challenges of Incorporating Consumer Reliability Preferences in Electricity Markets with a Capacity Requirement’. Power outages and major blackouts are widespread, affecting hundreds of millions globally. One way to improve reliability and reduce costs is to have more customers adjust their electricity consumption based on system conditions, but demand response needs to be developed faster. A market-based way for consumers to do so may help, combined with technological advances in smart meters and load control devices. The podcast explains how to incorporate different customer reliability preferences in power systems or markets that have resource adequacy/capacity requirements. It also explains how allowing customers to opt out of such requirements while ensuring they will be disconnected during shortages is the first step in incorporating reliability and resiliency preferences and this can become more customer-specific and tailored over time.
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In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Ahmed Mehdi about his latest paper “Lithium price volatility: where next for the market?”. They start by discussing the importance of lithium for the energy transition and the different uses and chemistries that are involved in the global cathode market. They then move on to assess recent price movements, which have seen the lithium price fall sharply from historic highs in 2022. They consider the shifts in demand that are being driven by EV sales and have a particular focus on the Chinese market, where the influence of supply and demand issues is very strong. They also look at the emerging new sources of supply that are affecting the global balance and consider what price is needed to support future investment. They also discuss the various forms of contract and spot price mechanisms that are being developed and consider how the market might move towards maturity over the next few years.
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In this podcast from the China Energy Programme, OIES China Programme Director Michal Meidan and OIES Senior Research Fellow Anders Hove discuss the takeaways from China’s Two Sessions, a series of important government meetings that assess progress and lay out plans for the coming year. The discussion centres on the outlook for the economy in light of the lack of a major stimulus, whether oil and gas demand will hold up in a time of slower growth, and whether strategies for development in the ‘Three New’ sectors of the economy (EVs, solar, batteries) can succeed given price wars and overcapacity in these fields. The two also debate whether the Two Sessions showed any signs of a ‘pendulum swing’ towards environmental policy, given the apparent abandonment of the energy intensity target and switch to a softer fossil fuel intensity target.
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In this podcast, Hasan Muslemani speaks to Malek Al-Chalabi at Shell about some key issues in carbon markets, reflecting on the outcomes of COP28 including developments around Article 6, and an outlook for the future. The podcast specifically highlights the role that carbon pricing plays in reaching net-zero, how it fits within broader policy frameworks, and the increasing importance of carbon removal solutions within carbon markets.
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In this podcast, Hasan Muslemani speaks to Andrea Bonzanni and Antoine Diemert at IETA about the evolution of the voluntary carbon market (VCM) and its outlook in 2024 and beyond. The podcast discusses the VCM’s role as a climate financing tool, how it operates in practice, its evolving ecosystem and key achievements to date. Guests also shed light on the criticisms that the market has faced in the media lately, how key players are responding and the impact of broader climate regulatory developments on the VCM.
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In this podcast from the China Energy Programme, Anders Hove talks to OIES Senior Research Fellow Philip Andrews-Speed about his two papers for the recent Oxford Energy Forum on nuclear power entitled “The role of nuclear power in China’s energy security and low-carbon energy transition” and “Will Russian and Chinese nuclear reactor exports assist in the low-carbon transition?”. China has the world’s fastest growing fleet of civil nuclear reactors and will probably have the largest installed capacity by 2030. In this podcast, Hove and Andrews-Speed discuss the rationale for this rapid growth and the challenges involved in governing such a large and ambitious programme. They also assess the extent to which nuclear power will contribute to China’s low-carbon energy transition. They also discuss the differences between the Russian and Chinese nuclear export programmes and whether they will make a significant difference to global emissions reduction.
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In this latest OIES podcast, from the Energy Transition Programme, James Henderson talks to Adnan Shihab-Eldin about the future of nuclear energy and the role that small modular reactors can play. The conclusions of COP28 were relatively positive of nuclear energy, including it as a key component of the energy transition for the first time, but despite this the high cost and timescales of major projects remain a problem for many countries. In this podcast we discuss the potential for small modular reactors to increase availability of nuclear technology to a wider audience of developed and developing countries. We address the economics of SMRs compared to large scale nuclear plants, but also look at safety and security issues and the critical question of how to manage radioactive waste generated from a larger community of reactors. Finally we also look at the potential new business opportunities in this area. The podcast is based on the latest Oxford Energy Forum on the future of nuclear energy.
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In this latest OIES podcast, from the Energy Transition Programme, James Henderson talks to Sara Vakhshouri about the new edition of the Oxford Energy Forum which includes a series of essays on the role of nuclear power in the energy transition. We discuss some of the key issues in the nuclear fuel cycle, including the dominance of Russia and China in many aspects of mining, fuel production and nuclear technology export and consider the efforts being made to diversify away from dependence on Russia in particular since the start of the war in Ukraine. The development of small modular reactors, the issue of fuel waste disposal, the emerging role of nuclear in a number of developing countries and the boost to nuclear provided by COP 28 are all reviewed, and Sara also summarises her essay on the intersection between nuclear energy and medicine and underlines how dependent the world is on Russia for the supply of critical isotopes used in many medical practices.
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In the latest OIES podcast, from the Hydrogen Programme, James Henderson talks to Abdurahman Alsulaiman about his latest paper entitled “Navigating Turbulence: Hydrogen’s Role in the Decarbonisation of the Aviation Sector.” In the podcast we discuss the current balance of fuels in the aviation sector, the importance of increasing efficiency of aero-engines and the impact of increasing passenger miles travelled. The podcast then considers different decarbonisation options for the sector, focussing on a change of engine technology to allow the use of alternative fuels such as hydrogen or electricity but also looking at the potential for hydrogen to play an important role in the development of Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs) for use with current engine technology. We also look at Low Carbon Aviation Fuels which are essentially existing fuels derived from a significantly decarbonised supply chain and assess whether they have an important role to play as the aviation sector targets a net zero outcome.
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In this podcast Michal Meidan talks with Neil Beveridge and Sergey Vakulenko about the role of gas in China’s energy mix and Russia’s evolving energy ties with China. Beveridge begins with a discussion of the weakness in China’s gas consumption in 2022 and the extent to which it will shape the future trajectory. He outlines […]
The post OIES Podcast – The geopolitics of energy and China episode 2: China’s gas dream is not over, but will Russia be part of it? appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Mostefa Ouki about the potential for a resurgence in the gas sector in Africa. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the decline of Russian gas exports to Europe there has been increased interest in African gas, mainly as a source of pipeline and LNG exports. Mostefa reviews the main gas players on the continent and discusses the new discoveries that have been made which could lead to major export projects. He also considers the prospects for domestic gas consumption, but also reviews the major challenges facing the companies looking to develop gas assets in the region. The most important of these is financing, and Mostefa analyses the future role of multilateral lending agencies, export credit agencies, government institutions and private capital and describes the need for de-risking of projects by appropriate actors if gas development is to proceed. He also calls for domestic government action in African countries to improve the investment climate and to encourage the new players that will be needed for a gas renaissance to really take place. Finally he discusses the need to new projects to have a low level of carbon intensity if they are to compete in a decarbonising world market
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In this podcast Anders Hove talks with Herbert Crowther about the role of Chinese clean energy firms in the new geopolitics of energy and the dilemmas they face. Crowther, a 2023 Schwarzman Scholar and an analyst with Eurasia group, discusses the uncertainties facing Chinese renewable manufacturers: While they are set to retain an “unavoidable presence” […]
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In this extended podcast, Rob Gross, Director of the UK Energy Research Centre and Malcolm Keay of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies discuss the possible reform of UK electricity markets following the UK Government’s ‘Review of Electricity Market Arrangements’. The discussion draws on Professor Gross’s article ‘Arguing over the fundamentals of market reform is […]
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In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Research Programme, James Henderson talks to Jonathan Stern about three important gatherings that have taken place over the summer which have interesting implications for the gas industry. The first was the G7 meeting in Tokyo in May, then second was the LNG23 conference in […]
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In this podcast, David Ledesma discusses with Bassam Fattouh the latest trends in oil markets and assesses the key factors that are expected to shape market outcomes in the second half of the year and in 2024. They discuss the main factors behind the recent rise in oil price, the recent dynamics in physical differentials, the shifts in […]
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In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Research Programme, James Henderson talks to Mike Fulwood about his latest paper called “A New Global Gas Order (Part 1): The Outlook to 2030 after the Energy Crisis”. The conversation starts by reviewing the key drivers of gas demand across the world, mainly in […]
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It’s now August and we finally have a good set of China’s 1H economic and energy statistics to parse, and it looks like a bit of a mixed bag. While economic growth has been notably weak, energy demand has held up somewhat better. Meanwhile, in the power sector, there is a supply-side push underway across […]
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In this podcast, David Ledesma talks to Frank Felder about how Incorporating Consumer Reliability and permitting customers to adjust their electricity consumption, based on system condition, can reduce costs and improve system reliability. Power outages and major blackouts are widespread, affecting hundreds of millions globally. There are concerns about the reliability of the electric power […]
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In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Research Programme, James Henderson talks to Mike Fulwood and Jack Sharples about the latest Quarterly Gas Review, published in early July. The discussion ranges from a review of current gas prices in Europe and Asia to an analysis of the impact of the cut […]
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In this podcast, Michal Meidan talks to Anders Hove about recent developments in China’s green power trading, discussing the findings of his paper “Green certificates with Chinese characteristics: Will green certificates help China’s clean energy transition?”, co-authored with Gary Sipeng Xie. Green power trading is a market-oriented way to promote a clean energy transition in […]
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In this podcast, David Ledesma talks to Jazmin Mota about her latest research paper publication with the OIES entitled ‘Carbon Emissions Accounting in the context of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) coupled with Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR)’. Jazmin discusses why carbon accounting is relevant to evaluate CCUS with EOR explaining that while the projects have […]
The post OIES Podcast – Carbon accounting for Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) projects coupled with Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR): A system-wide analysis appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
In this latest OIES podcast, recorded by the Gas Research Programme, James Henderson talks to Patrick Heather about his new paper entitled “European Traded Gas Hubs: their continued relevance”. The title of the paper was inspired by the questions raised by the European Commission about whether the TTF hub provided a relevant gas price benchmark […]
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In this podcast, Anders Hove and Michal Meidan talk about China’s coal consumption, drawing on the Coal chapter in the Guide to Chinese Climate Policies. Anders and Michal talk about the importance of coal for the Chinese economy, the geography of coal demand as well as structural trends in Chinese coal use as the country […]
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In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Research Programme, James Henderson talks to Graeme Bethune about his latest paper entitled “Is Australia quietly quitting the LNG business?”. The podcast starts with an overview of the Australian gas market, considering the main areas of domestic demand and the key production sites, including […]
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In this episode of the OIES podcast series, Anders Hove and Edmund Downie discuss China’s manufacturing sector and its present and future energy and emissions trajectory. Edmund Downie, a 2nd-year PhD student in the Science, Technology, and Environmental Policy program at the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs and the author of two chapters in […]
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In this podcast David Ledesma talks to Martin Lambert and Abdurahman Alsulaiman, about the potential hydrogen import market, particularly focusing on the EU, which currently holds the largest and earliest hydrogen target. The podcast explores the emerging hydrogen trade market and considers numerous possibilities for its open up providing better clarity on policy statements and […]
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In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Research Programme, James Henderson talks to Marshall Hall about the impact of the global LNG market on UK energy security, based on a recent paper of the same name published by OIES in partnership with the UK Energy Research Council (UKERC) in May 2023. […]
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In this latest podcast, David Ledesma unpacks the latest OPEC+ decision with Bassam Fattouh. The latest OPEC+ decision is quite unique because of its multiple layers. To start with, OPEC+ countries agreed a new deal that starts in January 2024 till the end of December 2024. Also, earlier this year in April, several OPEC+ countries announced voluntary […]
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In this latest podcast from the OIES China programme, Anders Hove and Michal Meidan discuss the future of fossil fuel demand in China, what this means for the country’s import requirements and the geopolitical implications of these trends. China is currently the world’s largest oil importer and is on track to becoming the largest LNG […]
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In this podcast, David Ledesma again talks to Professor Michael Grubb of UCL and Malcolm Keay of the OIES on the proposed dual market designs for electricity, focusing on split market proposals. In recent months, electricity market arrangements have been widely debated in the UK and Europe, because of the impact of high gas prices […]
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In this podcast, David Ledesma talks to Professor Michael Grubb of UCL and Malcolm Keay of the OIES on the proposed dual market designs for electricity. In recent months, electricity market arrangements have been widely debated in the UK and Europe, because of the impact of high gas prices and the fundamental changes the system […]
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In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Mike Fulwood and Jack Sharples about the current issues that are shaping the global gas market. After reviewing the downward trajectory of prices over the past few months they consider the key sources of supply to Europe before providing an overview of global LNG supply and demand. They discuss the potential for a demand rebound in Europe and Asia at current prices, but then focus on the risk that the EU could take firmer action on imports of Russian gas. They look at whether recent proposals to ban any increase in flows through Russian pipelines that have been shut down are likely to come to any concrete conclusion, and also ask whether the EU or member states are likely to impose restrictions on the import of Russian LNG. They also review the implications of the completion of the first tender held by the AggregateEU purchasing platform, and consider the question of whether European buyers will be persuaded to sign new long-term contracts for LNG supply. Finally, they review the current state of gas storage in Europe and ask whether the situation in the market is actually as benign as prices would suggest.
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In this latest podcast, Anders Hove, Philip Andrews-Speed and Michal Meidan take stock of China’s energy and climate policies in the first few months of 2023. They discuss Q1 2023 data, how China’s economic recovery is shaping up and impacting energy demand; they talk about the implications of rising coal consumption, production and trade for emissions while also taking stock of the large renewable installations in the year to date and government efforts to accelerate the deployment of renewables. Anders, Philip and Michal talk about the trade-offs between economic growth, energy security and environmental protections, breakthroughs in new energy innovation as well as about China’s energy relations with its South East Asian neighbors and with Central Asia.
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David Ledesma discusses with Mohua Mukherjee what to expect from the Indian Carbon Market which is under preparation at the moment and will be launched later in 2023. India, like other signatories to the Paris Agreement, will be setting up its emission trading rules as per Article 6 of the Agreement.
India was the second largest issuer of Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) under the Clean Development Mechanism, which was the predecessor to today’s carbon market. Therefore, the country already has considerable experience in the carbon offset market, which is the so-called voluntary market. It turns out that India also has two decades of experience in the compliance market, because it has been running a domestic energy efficiency scheme where large, energy-intensive industrial sectors are required to participate and meet their year-on-year targets to reduce their energy intensity. Companies that over-achieve their targets are issued with energy savings certificates. Companies that under-achieve must pay a penalty or buy the certificates from the over-achievers. A separate compliance market has been operating for a decade in the renewable energy sector, issuing renewable energy certificates to help certain companies meet their renewable purchase obligations.
There will be a two-year transition period where the present certificates (expressed in tons of oil equivalent and megawatt-hours respectively) will be converted and in future issued only in tons of CO2 equivalent. The future Indian carbon market will essentially absorb and combine the two existing compliance markets and the voluntary offset market. Accredited verifiers are being trained and methodologies for Monitoring Reporting and Verification (MRV) are being worked out. Early indications of how the Indian Carbon Market will be operated, point to the importance placed by India on meeting its ambitious NDC targets first, before allowing international trading in carbon credit certificates from emission reductions generated in India.
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In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the OIES Gas Research Programme, James Henderson talks to Katja Yafimava about her recent OIES paper “EU solidarity in a time of crisis: even with a will the way still looks difficult.” In the discussion Katja addresses the key issue that although Europe currently appears to be in a relatively benign position with regards to meeting its gas demand, it may not be so lucky in the winter of 2023/24, with the risks particularly high for Central and Eastern Europe. As a result, she argues that recent Eu legislation which includes energy solidarity measures may become increasingly important if the global gas market starts to tighten and the potential for shortages in Europe emerges. She describes the various regulations which include solidarity measures, including the Security of Supply and Enhanced Security of Supply Regulations and the Gas Demand Reduction Regulation and assesses what problems could emerge if they need to be implemented. She also highlights that at present very few solidarity agreements have actually been reached between member states, meaning that the region could still be vulnerable in the event of a cold winter or a further supply interruption.
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In this podcast from the OIES China programme, Michal Meidan talks to Philip Andrews-Speed and Anders Hove about their forthcoming paper. They discuss the importance of rare earths, how China became dominant in its mining and processing and how Western governments are responding to this vulnerability. Rare earth elements are becoming increasingly important for the low-carbon energy transition given their application in batteries and permanent magnets for wind turbines and electric vehicles. Today, China accounts for about 70 per cent of rare earth ore extraction and about 90 per cent of processing and refining to produce rare earth metals. China’s dominance of the rare earth supply chain is increasingly seen as a risk for the West and its energy transition.
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David Ledesma discusses with Nnaziri Ihejirika the development of Carbon Capture, Usage and Storage (CCUS) in Canada and government regulation. To support the broad adoption of CCUS in Canada, the government has introduced two fiscal and regulatory levers – carbon pricing and an investment tax credit (ITC). Federal output-based pricing system (OBPS) for carbon, introduced in 2018, will see the cost of CO2 escalate from $65/tCO2e in 2023 to $170/tCO2e by 2030. On the other end of the carrot-stick dynamic, the ITC provides a rebate, approximately 20–30 per cent, of project costs associated with CCUS implementation. Supporting this, the Pathways Alliance – consisting of the country’s largest oilsands producers – seeks to share common costs like transportation and storage, reducing the risk for individual facilities and driving down the levelized cost of CCUS. While the ITC may not be as lucrative for investors as the 45Q tax credit in the United States, Canada’s regulatory approach offers long-term value to heavy emitters when avoided costs of carbon are considered. To support the carbon price signal, tightening rates and the expiry term for offsets and credits may need to be adjusted as required to balance supply and demand on a go-forward basis.
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In this podcast, David Ledesma engages in a conversation with Alex Patonia and Rahmat Poudineh on their recent paper focusing on hydrogen storage for a net-zero carbon future. The podcast delves into the various types of hydrogen storage options, highlighting their relative strengths and drawbacks.
In order for a hydrogen economy to be established, several key factors must be addressed, including efficient and decarbonized production, adequate transportation infrastructure, and the deployment of suitable hydrogen storage facilities. However, hydrogen presents unique challenges when it comes to storage and handling. Due to its extremely low volumetric energy density under ambient conditions, hydrogen cannot be efficiently or economically stored without undergoing compression, liquefaction, or conversion into other more manageable substances.
At present, there exist several hydrogen storage solutions at different levels of technology, market, and commercial readiness, each with varying applications depending on specific circumstances.
Additionally, the podcast explores the primary barriers that hinder investment in hydrogen storage, and the essential components of a viable business model that can address the primary risks to which potential hydrogen storage investors are exposed.
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In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Research Programme, James Henderson talks to Anouk Honoré about her new Energy Insight on the outlook for gas demand in Europe. After starting with a little historical context, reviewing the reasons for strong demand growth in 2021 followed by the sharp decline in 2022, the discussion moves onto the key sectors and countries that were hit by the energy crisis in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Anouk then analyses the direction of demand in the first quarter of 2023 before looking ahead to the rest of the year. She gives her thoughts on how much industrial demand could rebound if prices remain low and how much may have been lost permanently before looking at the prospects for the power sector, discussing the potential impact of the return of nuclear power in France and the general expansion of renewables, which could offset the closure of other coal and nuclear plants. Finally she looks at the heating sector and considers the potential consequences of a return to average winter temperatures, following the very warm winter in 2022/23. She then concludes with a look ahead to 2030 and considers whether there is any chance of the REPowerEU targets for a sharp decline in gas demand being met.
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China is a leader in solar photovoltaics, and has recently launched a major new programme to deploy solar in rural areas, known as the Whole County PV programme. Meanwhile, China is continuing to promote clean heating in rural areas, but so far with an emphasis on clean coal instead of electrification. In today’s podcast, we speak with OIES Senior Research Fellow Anders Hove about the potential to pair heat pump technology with PV as part of the Whole County PV pilot program. In a forthcoming OIES paper, Anders discusses the economics as well as the barriers to adopting such a paired approach to clean heating and cooling.
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In this podcast David Ledesma discusses with Takeshi Miyamori and Ji Soo Yoon, Kristina Lygnerud and Marek Miara the role of cities and local specificities in the decarbonization of heat in the European buildings sector. Takeshi Miyamori and Ji Soo Yoon argue the energy and climate battle will be won or lost in cities and that only a coordinated effort across national and local governments can get us closer to energy security and a net-zero future. Building stock differs across places in terms of age, size, tenure, usage, and energy performance and national governments cannot tap into the full potential for decarbonizing buildings without subnational policy actions and targeted support to cities and regions. A perfect example of this is the potential of urban waste heat. Kristina Lygnerud highlights some of the key findings from the ReUseHeat project and concludes that the current context of climate urgency in combination with a war that has forced Europe to shift away from gas has led to a situation where we need to make the best possible use of available resources, and urban waste heat should be one. The technology and the resource are already there. Finally, Marek Miara focuses on the building level and sheds some lights on the application of heat pumps in existing buildings. Contrary to popular belief, the author argues that houses do not have to be extensively renovated to allow for an installation of a heat pump, although of course, the lower the heat losses, the more efficiently a heat pump can operate.
The decarbonization of buildings will need to have a central role in the European transition to a zero-carbon future, but the task is enormous and lacks implementation speed. Read more in our latest edition of the Oxford Energy Forum: Issue 135 – Decarbonizing heat in the European buildings sector: options, progress and challenges
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In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Research Programme, James Henderson talks to Jack Sharples and Mike Fulwood about the outlook for the global gas market before having a more focused discussion with Michal Meidan about the prospects for Chinese gas demand in 2023. Jack and Mike review the key signposts that highlighted at the start of 2023 and which we continue to monitor the implications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These are the level of Russian gas supply into Europe, which has fallen sharply over the past 12 months and continues to be at risk in Europe; the development of global LNG supply both as a replacement in Europe but also to supply other importing regions; the pace of demand in growth in Asia, as the major consumer of LNG in the world; total gas supply into the European market as a proxy for demand; the level of storage in Europe as a measurement of preparedness for increased gas demand in winter; and the level of prices that emerge from theses supply and demand issues. As we review the first quarter of 2023 against these signposts the overarching theme is that the outturn for Europe has been much more benign than could have been expected at the start of winter. However, although prices have fallen sharply from their 2022 highs, they still remain well above the 5-year average level, underlining the point that although the outlook for 2023 looks relatively calm it would not take much of a shift in supply or demand to cause a sharp rebound.
On China, one of the big questions has been how the unwinding of the COVID lockdown would impact energy markets. With the economy now fully re-opened, it is expected that growth will resume and with it energy demand, including demand for pipeline gas and LNG imports. Michal Meidan describes the underlying complexities of the future of gas in China in the short and long-term. Much depends on what route to growth the Chinese leadership decides to take, and also on the policy concerning energy security, which tends to favour gas over coal. In addition, the drive to increase domestic gas production and to optimise imports via pipeline means that the need for spot LNG purchases could be minimal in 2023, albeit that LNG supply under long-term contracts is set to grow.
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China is by far the world’s largest producer and consumer of hydrogen, mostly from coal and other fossil fuels, and the country has an ambitious hydrogen strategy. In this podcast, we dive into the provincial strategies on hydrogen in China, and specifically discuss a recent paper published by the Institute entitled, China’s hydrogen development: A tale of three cities. The paper looks at the experiences and plans of the pilot hydrogen clusters located in Datong, Shanxi province, Chengdu in Sichuan province, and Zhangjiakou in the northern part of Hebei province, which surrounds Beijing. In this podcast, we are speaking with the paper’s author, Arabella Miller-Wang, recently an Aramco fellow at the Institute and also a Research Assistant at the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment of The University of Oxford, as well as with Michal Meidan, director of the China Energy Programme at OIES, and with Martin Lambert, who heads hydrogen research at the OIES.
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In this podcast, David Ledesma discusses with Alix Chambris, Christoph Riechmann and Jacob Janssen some of the challenges and the practicalities in the decarbonization of heat in the European buildings sector.
Alix Chambris argues that the current crisis may have presented Europe with a unique opportunity. Overnight, the replacement of gas for space heating became a top priority for energy security, next to climate goals. Changing consumer preferences, the investment readiness of the private sector, and the new policy framework could constitute a critical mass for exponential change and unleash a green swan (unpredicted event that positively transforms the economy) for buildings. Christoph Riechmann then focuses on one of the key features of the buildings sector, which is that heating demand is highly seasonal and argues that because of the presence of externalities and the maturity of some of the technologies, policymakers will need to support low-carbon heating options, will benefit from adopting a portfolio of heating technologies, should be as technology-neutral as possible, and should just ensure coordination where needed. Finally, Jacob Janssen focuses heating networks, which are thought to be an attractive alternative for many urban neighborhoods in the Netherlands but will need to be built from scratch. Looking at the example of Denmark, where district heating is popular among consumers and supplies energy to about two-thirds of the population, Jacob provides some insights into what the Netherlands could learn from the Danish approach to district heating.
The decarbonization of buildings will need to have a central role in the European transition to a zero-carbon future, but the task is enormous and lacks implementation speed. Read more in our latest edition of the Oxford Energy Forum: Issue 135 – Decarbonizing heat in the European buildings sector: options, progress and challenges
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In this podcast David Ledesma discusses with Thomas Nowak, Michael Taylor and Katja Kruit the role of policies in the decarbonization of heat in the European buildings sector.
Thomas Nowak argues that while heat pump sales have soared in recent years, we are still way off from where we need to be. Thomas advocates for policymakers to select the most efficient technology and then implement all necessary measures to deploy it at speed. He reckons that in the long term, renewable energy and heat pumps are the best solution not only for the environment but also for the economy and should be made the imperative of the energy transition. Picking up a similar theme, Michael Taylor reviews some data on costs and performance of heat pumps from primary sources. Despite the difficulty of making comparisons between countries due to data boundaries, terminology, and availability by technology and market segment, some common themes can be drawn, including the decline of installed costs per kW thermal over time, the presence of economies of scale, and an apparent increase of system efficiency—measured as the coefficient of performance—through time. Finally, Katja Kruit focuses on the Dutch market, where over 90 per cent of residential and commercial buildings use natural gas for heating and cooking. The author reviewed some of the policy instruments used in the Dutch heat transition and concludes that two areas stand out in which there is obvious room for policy strengthening: performance standards for privately owned homes and the introduction of a carbon cap for heating fuel.
The decarbonization of buildings will need to have a central role in the European transition to a zero-carbon future, but the task is enormous and lacks implementation speed.
Read more in our latest edition of the Oxford Energy Forum: Issue 135 – Decarbonizing heat in the European buildings sector: options, progress and challenges
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In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the OIES Gas Research Programme, James Henderson talks to Nitin Zamre about his latest paper “Gas sector reforms in India: How will it change the market outlook?”. They start by reviewing the current state of the Indian gas market, looking at the main centers of demand as well as discussing the history of and prospects for indigenous supply. A key driver has been gas price reform, and so the podcast covers the history of price-setting in India and also looks at the prospects for the future, including the use of subsidies in specific sectors. In particular, Nitin discusses the sensitivity of the Indian market to the price of LNG imports, and he assesses the likelihood that the role of gas will really be to replace oil rather than coal in the Indian energy economy, meaning that the main hope for future demand is in City Gas Distribution, transport and industry rather than the power sector. Finally, the podcast addresses the issue of whether India is likely to hit its target of a 15% market share for gas by 2030. The answer is that, although it is unlikely by that date, this does not mean that gas cannot play a more important role in India in the 2030s and beyond.
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China’s Two Sessions – the yearly meetings of China’s top legislature and top political advisory bodies – is a key date in the Chinese political calendar, and an important point to check the pulse of policy discussions in Beijing on energy and climate. This year held special significance as President Xi Jinping’s new leadership team begins its term. In this podcast, Michal Meidan, Head of China Research at OIES, along with Senior Research Fellows Philip Andrews-Speed and Anders Hove, discuss the Two Sessions and their implications for energy and climate. The podcast covers the main macroeconomic takeaways for growth and energy demand, the major policy tensions revealed (or reemphasised) by the government work reports, and the concerns about energy security that have risen to the fore in recent years. The guests discuss and debate whether the lower focus on climate is a reason for cautious pessimism, or whether the trend on renewables is justification for cautious optimism.
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On January 31st, 2023, S&P Global Commodity Insights (Platts) confirmed the inclusion of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Midland in the forward Brent (BFOET) contract from June 2023 and provided further guidance. This followed the introduction of WTI Midland into Dated Brent in June 2022. In this podcast David Ledesma talks with Adi Imsirovic and Kurt Chapman about this change and about how the change in Dated Brent, may be relatively straightforward, changes in the forward (or cash) contract are far more complex.
The latest version validates the industry’s movement towards the STASCO 2022 Cash BFOETM general terms and conditions (GT&Cs), with the seller of a forward Brent being able to deliver a cargo of WTI Midland on a ‘cost, insurance, and freight’ (CIF) Rotterdam basis into the contract. However, the forward Brent will remain a ‘free on board’ (FOB) contract by using a freight adjustment mechanism, assessing the delivered WTI Midland ‘as if it was loaded in the North Sea’.
Despite several forward Brent trades already done on the basis of the WTI Midland inclusion, there are some details that may need to be ironed out before the first ‘new forward Brent’ nominations are made in May 2023. Even earlier, the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) May Brent futures contract which expires in March, based on the ICE Brent Index, considers June forward and EFP trades for its methodology.
If history of Brent is anything to go by, it may take several years and an occasional bumpy ride to see the eventual, smooth incorporation of the WTI Midland into the Brent contract. In the long run, a successful inclusion of the US oil into the contract will likely lead to development and growth of liquid and transparent instruments for managing the risk of trading WTI Midland in the USGC.
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David Ledesma discusses with Alex Barnes the European Commission’s decision to make hydrogen a key part of its decarbonisation strategy. The 2022 REPowerEU Strategy set a target of 20MT consumption of renewable hydrogen by 2030. The Commission is keen to promote a single European market in hydrogen, similar to the current one for natural gas. To this end it has published proposals on the regulation of future European hydrogen infrastructure (pipelines, storage facilities and import terminals). The EU Council (representing Member States) and the EU Parliament are finalising their amendments to the Commission proposals, prior to ‘trilogue’ negotiations and final agreement later this year. The OIES’s paper ‘The EU Hydrogen and Gas Decarbonisation Package: help or hindrance for the development of a European hydrogen market?’, published in March 2023, examines the EU Commission proposals and their suitability for a developing hydrogen market.
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In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the OIES Gas Research Programme, James Henderson talks to Jack Sharples and Mike Fulwood about the current state of global gas markets. They start by reviewing prices, which have fallen sharply over the past six months, before considering the key drivers of supply and demand that have led to this outcome. They look at demand in Europe, which has been falling thanks to warm weather, and also discuss the various sources of gas supply to the region and the current levels of gas in storage. The conversation then moves on to consider demand for LNG outside of Europe, especially in China and other parts of Asia, before addressing the potential for an increase in global LNG supply in 2023. Finally, Mike and Jack give their views on the outlook for the rest of 2023 and into 2024, debating whether the current relatively benign situation can be maintained or whether there are significant risks on the horizon.
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In this podcast David Ledesma talks to Mohua Mukherjee about her recent paper titled “India’s Ongoing Solar Rooftop Journey from 2017-2022”. The discussion points out the striking contrast in terms of progress in India’s utility scale solar performance, which is far ahead of expectations, and its rooftop solar performance which is far behind the initial targets. India is the first developing country to attempt a rooftop program at scale—the success stories are mainly from Germany, Australia and the US, and these programs are much older than India’s, which started in 2017. However, the challenges of rooftop solar in India have emerged almost immediately and the government is currently engaged in a course-correction, which is referred to as Phase 2. Phase 2 seeks to be inclusive of the interests of distribution companies as well as residential customers. Residential customers were largely left out of Phase 1, despite receiving support from the government in the form of a 40% capital subsidy on their rooftop systems. Neither commercial lenders nor rooftop installers were interested in residential customers when there were much better prospects in the commercial and industrial category. Incentives have been changed in the Indian rooftop space. Net metering has all but disappeared under pressure from state distribution companies, and the capital subsidy is now restricted only to very small systems of up to 10kW, so that mainly residential users can benefit. India’s experiences with the rooftop sector are likely to be repeated in many developing countries and therefore India’s business models and experiments are a useful learning tool for other observers who will be considering the introduction of rooftop programs at scale to meet their NDCs.
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In this latest OIES podcast, Michal Meidan talks to Yan Qin about Europe’s proposed carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) and its implications for China. Michal and Yan discuss the next steps for CBAM as well as the response in China: the official rhetoric as well as the response from Chinese industry. Even though the near term impact is limited, Yan argues that Chinese industrial stakeholders are growing increasingly worried about their competitiveness in Europe. Even though there are still many open questions about CBAM’s implementation, when extended to other sectors, it will become more meaningful for Chinese industries. But can China accelerate the roll out of its domestic emissions trading system or are the domestic constraints limiting progress?
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In this latest OIES podcast, brought to you by the Gas Programme, James Henderson talks to Mostefa Ouki about his latest Energy Comment on the increasing gas relationship between Italy and North Africa and the possibility of the development of a Mediterranean gas hub. The discussion ranges from the export potential of countries such as Algeria, Libya and Egypt to the question of demand in Europe over the short, medium and long-term as issues of energy security merge into the outlook for gas demand during the energy transition. Mostefa also discusses the possibility of the export of decarbonised gas from North Africa, and he questions whether this is the best use of the region’s renewable resources. The podcast also covers the political risks of North African gas, the need for new investment if higher exports are to be sustained over the long-term and the potential for gas from the Eastern Mediterranean to become an increasing part of the supply mix over time.
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David Ledesma discusses with Ralf Dickel the future need for cross border movements of CO2. To achieve net zero GHG emissions by mid-century there will need substantial improvements in efficiency and roll out of renewables, but also decarbonizing fossil energies results in large volumes of CO2 to be sequestered in geological structures found in oil and gas producing countries. Oil and gas importing countries lacking such structures will need to export CO2 captured to achieve their net zero targets. Conversely oil and gas exporting countries have to import CO2 for sequestration if they are serious in meeting net zero of scope 3 emissions, i.e. the CO2 emissions resulting from their exported fossil energies.
Norway today produces approximately 2 mbd oil and 110 Bcma of gas resulting in approximately 200-300 million tonnes of CO2 emissions, per annum. Norway’s CO2 sequestration potential of 70 Gt CO2 in the North Sea is far beyond its direct production of 42 million tonnes CO2 per annum. Germany will have to sequester CO2 production of 200-300 million tonnes of CO2 per annum, which is difficult to replace by renewables. Present legislation prohibits CO2 sequestration but allows CO2 transport and export. This complementary interest can refer to the successful coordination in the 1980s and 1990s of building a large gas export infrastructure on the Norwegian shelf, with a corresponding infrastructure upgrade for marketing the new Norwegian gas volumes.
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China’s low-carbon energy transition depends on the power sector taking the lead. In this OIES podcast, we talk with Anders Hove, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute, to discuss his recent paper on China’s power sector energy transition. The paper looks at three questions: (1) Is the power sector transition on track, in terms of non-fossil and renewable capacity and output? (2) Are market reforms in the power sector a prerequisite for China’s low-carbon transition? (3) Do efforts at international experience sharing and topics of cooperative research require adjustment? In the podcast, Anders discusses where progress is being made in decarbonisation, but also areas such as power sector reform that are moving forward more slowly. But assuming the market reforms are a prerequisite for China’s decarbonisation may be misguided, while international cooperation on the power sector may be more useful if it focused on highlighting progress in technology or policy – both inside and outside China. In this episode, Hove outlines several areas of research the institute will undertake in 2023 in the power sector field, including research related to heat pumps, EV charging, and green power trading.
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In this podcast, David Ledesma talks to Hasan Muslemani, Head of Carbon Management Research at OIES, about his ongoing research on greening the steel industry. Hasan discusses the outlook for incorporating low-carbon technologies into the sector, particularly carbon capture and storage (CCS) and hydrogen solutions. Barriers and opportunities for each technology are also discussed, including indications of the green premium that decarbonised steel would incur. Hasan also highlights key considerations to creating a green steel market, including potential buyers of the green product and how governments can help drive this transition.
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In this podcast David Ledesma discusses with Ilia Bouchouev the latest developments related to an unprecedented release of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. They set the stage by describing the mission of the SPR and how its recent usage compares to previous episodes. An important distinction is made between SPR loans and SPR sales. They look at the SPR strategy from the perspective of the commercial storage manager. While a SPR loan is effectively an arbitrage strategy that generates returns with little risk, SPR sales are much more speculative as the outcome is highly dependent on future market prices. They debate the success of the current program and discuss its latest developments, including the cancellation of previously Congress-approved sales and the pilot program to buy barrels back in the market. They conclude with some thoughts on the optimal management of such a program.
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In this latest OIES podcast, produced by the Gas Programme, James Henderson interviews Vitaly Yermakov about his latest paper “Catch 22 for Russia Gas: plenty of capacity amid disappearing market,” which was published in late January. In the podcast they discuss the sharp decline in Russian gas production in 2022, reviewing both the overall numbers but also the disparity between output from non-Gazprom producers, which actually increased slightly, and that of Gazprom, which had to play a balancing role. Vitaly discusses how Gazprom has managed this using the flexibility at its major fields, and also looks ahead to 2023 and beyond to assess how the company’s increased free capacity could allow gas to be made available for the Asian market and could also help the company reduce its capital expenditure over the next few years. Vitaly also talks about the future of Russian LNG, especially from the Yamal region, as well as touching on the prospects for a new pipeline export deal with China as Russia continues its attempts to find new markets for its gas as sales to Europe fall.
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China’s electric vehicle (EV) and plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV) market continued its incredible growth in 2022, reaching nearly 7 million in total domestic sales. The EV and PHEV market share reached 25% for the year and even surpassed 30% in the final months of the year. That’s up from just a 5% market share only two years ago.
In this podcast, Michal Meidan talks to OIES Senior Research Fellow Anders Hove about the main factors that have enabled China to achieve its rapid scale-up of EVs, and whether it can continue now that national subsidies have been removed. The podcast touches on charging infrastructure, consumer preferences, policy drivers such as carbon and air quality, as well as the role of policy versus other factors in understanding China’s EV revolution.
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In this podcast David Ledesma talks with Rahmat Poudineh and Martin Palovic about their paper on integrating hydrogen into the European energy transfer infrastructure landscape. As hydrogen is expected to play an important role in European plans towards climate neutrality, adequate hydrogen transport (and storage) infrastructure needs to be established. However, hydrogen transport infrastructures are costly and have a long lead time. Furthermore, hydrogen can be transported via a variety of means: it can be transported as a gas via pipelines or liquid via road, rail and sea or even converted to derivatives such as ammonia or methanol for long distance transportation. It is also possible to transfer electrical energy instead of hydrogen and produce hydrogen in a decentralized way. From a system perspective, all these infrastructures represent elements of a grand hydrogen ‘polygrid’ that will be the backbone of the future decarbonized energy system. This raises the fundamental question of how to prevent inefficiency and infrastructure redundancy across different modes of hydrogen transport. The task is made more challenging by technological uncertainty, the unpredictability of future supply and demand for hydrogen, network externality effects, and investment irreversibility of grid-based infrastructures. In this podcast, we discuss three possible coordination approaches to optimise future cross-sectoral investment into hydrogen transport infrastructure and highlight their strengths and shortcomings.
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In this latest OIES podcast the Gas Research Programme brings you a discussion on the outlook for gas markets in 2023, based on analysis in our latest Quarterly Gas Review. James Henderson talks to Mike Fulwood, Jack Sharples and Anouk Honoré about the critical signposts to look out for over the next 12 months, including gas prices, the future of Russian supply to Europe, the outlook for global LNG, Asian gas demand, storage levels in Europe and the outlook for supply and demand in Europe during the year. Anouk Honoré then goes into more detail on the power sector in Europe, looking at the reasons why demand actually rose in 2022, despite high prices and an EU desire to cut consumption, and discusses whether similar drivers will appear in 2023.
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In this latest Podcast from the OIES China Energy Research Programme, David Ledesma talks to Michal Meidan, Anders Hove and Philip Andrews-Speed about the outlook for China in 2023. They discuss China’s reopening after three years of stringent COVID controls and the implications for energy demand as well as energy policy. They highlight their views on oil and gas demand and question the extent to which power outages are likely to plague China again this year, assuming that the economy recovers significantly in the second half of the year. They also discuss how China is balancing energy security, especially as it relates to coal production and consumption, with its climate ambitions.
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In this podcast, David Ledesma speaks to Hasan Muslemani and Mathieu Lucquiaud about their forthcoming research paper on the potential to generate negative emissions from European Waste-to-Energy (WtE) sector using carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology. The authors discuss the role that WtE can play in dealing with residual waste from municipal, commercial and industrial sources, and how CCS can play a role in mitigating respective emissions. Specifically, the authors point out that capturing CO2 from the biogenic content in waste has the potential to produce ‘negative emissions’ and proceed to describe a methodology for assessing overall negative emissions which can be captured from the waste sector in Europe. In their analysis, the authors rely on a number of criteria that would enable or prohibit the integration of carbon capture technology at the plant level, including proximity to industrial CCS clusters and geological storage sites, and the availability of space for CO2 capture retrofit around WtE plants. The authors conclude by emphasising the need to deal with untreated waste which is currently being landfilled – potentially through WtE with CCS – if adverse environmental impacts are to be avoided.
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In this latest OIES podcast the Gas Programme brings you a discussion of gas markets in South-East Europe and their efforts to diversify away from Russian gas. James Henderson talks to Julian Bowden about his latest paper on the topic, in which he outlines that although the region is relatively small in gas terms it nevertheless provides an interesting example of the general moves in Europe to establish greater flexibility of supply. Romania is the major market in the region and is largely supplied by its own domestic supply, but other countries have historically been very reliant on imports from Russia. However, this is changing rapidly thanks to the construction of a number of LNG import terminals, the building of important pipeline infrastructure to connect the countries in SE Europe with each other and with the rest of Europe, and the development of new upstream resources in the Black Sea, primarily in Romania and Turkey. When all these factors are combined it becomes clear that the supply mix is changing rapidly and that SE Europe could even have aspirations to become an important element in the EU’s overall diversification strategy, especially if the plans for new LNG import terminals are fulfilled.
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In this Podcast David Ledesma discusses with Stephen Craen, Visiting Research Fellow OIES, the challenges facing the financing of future hydrogen projects as it is expected that a substantial amount of capital will need to be invested in green hydrogen production to meet the 2050 net zero targets. Based around an ‘Archetype’ world scale hydrogen export project, where 1 GW solar power is used to make green hydrogen which is converted to 250,000 tpa green ammonia for export with a capital cost in the region of USD 2 billion, the podcast discusses how ‘efficient financing’ can make an important contribution to minimising cost and making projects cost competitive. Stephen Craen argues that lenders and investors will look to precedents when assessing the nascent green hydrogen sector and the foremost will be LNG and offshore wind, which both represent large-scale, technically complex projects. Commercial structures of the green hydrogen business are expected to borrow concepts from offshore wind projects, particularly in relation to price, but also from LNG where this is relevant, such as take-or-pay contracts. In this podcast we discuss the key issues that will need to be addressed to make a green hydrogen export project bankable, concluding that commercial debt from either commercial banks or project bonds can help create competition.
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With an installed capacity of 56 GWe, China has the world’s third largest fleet of civilian nuclear reactors and its ambitious expansion programme will give it the largest fleet by 2030. In this podcast, Anders Hove talks to Philip Andrews-Speed about China’s nuclear programme: the policy priorities informing the nuclear build out and nuclear technologies—where China leads, but also where it faces challenges. Philip and Anders discuss how nuclear is perceived in China, how Chinese nuclear is viewed abroad as well as the outlook for additional exports of nuclear technology. Finally, they also talk about the outlook for nuclear development in China, the uncertainties and risks surrounding its build out.
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In this OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Mike Fulwood and Jack Sharples about the current state of the global gas market and in particular the outlook for the supply and demand balance and prices in 2023. They examine the current state of supply to Europe, including Russian flows, LNG imports and other sources of pipeline gas before discussing demand in a number of regions of the world. They then consider the current state of European gas storage and what the outlook could be for 2023, before they finally discuss the outlook for prices and whether the current benign state of the market offers a positive outlook for the next 12 months or masks potential threats to supply and a risk of higher prices to come.
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In this latest OIES podcast David Ledesma talks to Michal Meidan and James Henderson about a forthcoming OIES research paper on the Key Themes for the Global Energy Economy in 2023. The overarching theme is the rebalancing of the energy trilemma, with energy security taking a more prominent position alongside affordability, while sustainability is a lower priority in the short-term. This is particularly evident in Europe, where the search for hydrocarbons to replace imports from Russia will continue to be prevalent in 2023, but the report also highlights that the rebalancing means different things in different regions of the world, with articles on China, India and Africa emphasizing this. However, 2023 will also be a vital year for continuing to pursue the energy transition agenda ahead of COP28, with electricity market design, the future of nuclear energy, the operationalisation of voluntary carbon markets, the development of GHG emissions standards and further work on climate finance issues all being priorities. In addition, the global stocktake will establish whether the world is on target to meet its climate pledges and could reopen the debate between the Global South and the Global North on responsibility and loss and damage payments. Meanwhile the outlook for short-term oil and gas market supply and demand remains critical as high prices continue to weigh on the global economy. The podcast provides highlights of all these issues as a taster of the Key Themes for 2023 paper that is published in mid-January 2023.
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In this latest OIES podcast, David Ledesma discusses the global oil market dynamics with Bassam Fattouh and Andreas Economou as another turbulent year characterised by extreme shocks, heightened uncertainty and very disconnected narratives draws to a close. They discuss the current state of the oil market and assess the expectations and the eventual realization of oil prices in 2022. Next, they dive deeper on the impact of Russia-Ukraine war on oil markets in terms of the size of Russian supply disruptions, the transformation in trade flows and the implications of the EU embargo and price cap for Russian oil and physical flows. In particular, the effectiveness of the price cap and potential response from Russia come into focus. They also consider the future of Russia within OPEC+ and review the Group’s latest output policy decisions and next steps. Finally, the discussion turns to the oil market and price outlook for 2023 and concludes by assessing how transformative have been this year’s shocks for the short and long-run evolution of oil markets.
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In this podcast David Ledesma talks to Trisha Curtis, CEO of PetroNerds, about US gas and oil production, transportation and markets. US gas production has performed well since COVID and additional supply growth is clearly possible, but investment in infrastructure will require consistent regulatory and political support. Technology is also key, with production rigs having longer lateral lengths to increase and maximise gas production. The podcast further discusses oil and gas production trajectory and how environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) is imposing pressure on public oil and gas companies. Concluding the podcast, Trisha gives a view on what is required for LNG exports to Europe to rise (in Europe and North America) and how LNG exports can fit into Europe’s Energy Transition ambitions?
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In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Mike Fulwood and Jack Sharples about the key development sin the European gas market over the past few weeks. They discuss recent price movements and the impact of cold weather finally arriving in Europe, and also look at the prospect for Russian flows being cut further as the exports through Ukraine appear to be under threat. They consider the continuing record level of LNG flows into the continent and discuss whether this is likely to continue into 2023, especially if and when China starts to open up from its COVID lockdowns. On the topic of storage, gas is now finally being withdrawn following an extended period of injection, and a key question remains how low storage levels will go by the end of winter and therefore how much will need to be injected next summer. The question of gas availability could be equally, if not more, pressing next year. Finally, the podcast also looks at the availability of LNG import capacity in Europe over the next 12 months and also considers the continuing flows of Russian LNG, even as pipe exports have declined.
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In this podcast, David Ledesma talks to Hasan Muslemani about the new Carbon Management Research Programme recently launched by OIES. As head of this research, Hasan discusses the structure and objectives of the programme which will focus on three aspects: 1) carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies in energy and industrial sectors, 2) nature- and tech-based carbon removal solutions and 3) the role of carbon markets – both voluntary and compliance – in mobilizing investments into these technologies. Specifically, the programme will evaluate viable business models for CCS and carbon removal technologies in different regions and sectors and investigate some of the hottest topics within these spaces, such as potential for cost reductions, permanence, and emissions accounting. In the podcast, Hasan also emphasizes the need for carbon management at a corporate level and the distinction between the claims that can be made by investing in different types of solutions. The research outcomes out of this programme will be published in the form of papers and podcasts, so keep an eye on this space. Individuals and corporations who are interested in collaborating or learning more learn more about this initiative are advised to contact Hasan directly.
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In the latest OIES podcast, the 22nd in the series on the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on energy markets, James Henderson speaks to Alex Barnes about his latest research on the reaction of the European Commission to the energy crisis and to high gas prices. They discuss the latest proposals to impose a cap on the wholesale gas price in Europe and analyse whether it is workable in its current form or whether it is likely to be adjusted before being passed not law. They also consider the reactions of various member states to the proposal as there are a number of different views on whether a gas cap is a good idea in principle and whether the current proposal is satisfactory. Alex also reviews the proposal for a joint purchasing agreement for gas, explain the details around both procurement and demand allocation, while also reviewing the proposal for ACER, the European regulator, to create an LNG benchmark by March 2023. The discussion looks both at the short-term implications for prices in Europe but also considers the longer term implications for the structure of the European gas market overall.
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The COP27 conference was held in Sharm El Sheikh in November 2022, and although expectations going into the event were tempered by geopolitics and the energy crisis there was hope for movement on a number of key issues. David Ledesma discusses the main conclusions of the conference with James Henderson, who was one of the […]
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Much of the world requires winter heating and in most places this heating is still provided by fossil fuels. In this podcast David Ledesma discusses Northern China with Philip Andrews-Speed, Senior Research Fellow at OIES and Yuchao Xu, graduate from the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore, where this problem […]
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In this podcast, David Ledesma talks with Agnieszka Ason, Senior Visiting Research Fellow at the OIES and Manuel Calvo Diaz, Energy and Environment Director of the Naturgy Foundation about the new OIES paper on International Gas Contracts, which was prepared with support from the Naturgy Foundation. The paper explains the fundamentals of Gas Supply Agreements […]
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In this podcast David Ledesma discusses with Professor Jonathan Stern ‘Carbon-neutral’ LNG. Jonathan Stern argues that ‘Carbon-neutral’ LNG has become progressively limited to a relatively small number of trades in Asia and cannot be considered a credible or relevant environmental standard. Cargos should be ‘greenhouse gas verified’ and should set out the methodologies used to […]
The post OIES Podcast: Greenhouse Gas Emissions from LNG Trade: from carbon neutral to GHG-verified appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
In the latest OIES podcast James Henderson discusses current gas market dynamics with Mike Fulwood and Jack Sharples in the light of the impact of the Russia Ukraine war. They start by assessing recent movements in prices, considering the differential between spot and month forward prices while also looking at the overall fall in price […]
The post OIES Podcast Series: Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on Energy Markets Series – 21 – Global Gas Markets appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
In this latest OIES podcast, David Ledesma talks to David Sandalow and Michal Meidan about their recent book, Guide to Chinese Climate Policy 2022 which they co-authored with Dr Philip Andrews-Speed, Anders Hove, Sally Qiu and Edmund Downie, published by the OIES’s in November 2022. In the podcast they discuss the rationale for the book, […]
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In the sixth and final podcast of OIES’s pre-COP27 series, David Ledesma talks to Michal Meidan and James Henderson about the challenges facing the participants at the forthcoming COP27 conference that is being held 6-18th November in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. The discussion covers the key issues for COP27 as well as the most contentious issues […]
The post COP27 Podcast Series – 6: Issues, Challenges and Potential Outcomes of COP27 appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
The fifth podcast of the OIES’s six-part COP27 series addresses the importance of technology in delivering the COP27 pledges. David Ledesma and James Henderson talk to Dolf Gielen about the Breakthrough Agenda, announced at COP26, and the key technologies which are its focus, to Martin Lambert about his views on the future of green gases, […]
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In the fourth podcast of the OIES’s six-part COP27 series, we address the outlook and challenges that will be faced at COP27 by three major regions. The podcast talks to Isabel Hilton about China’s climate change policy, Sarah Ladislaw about the recent changes in US climate legislation and its potential impact on COP27 and Klaus […]
The post COP27 Podcast Series – 4: Outlook and challenges that will be faced at COP27, China, USA and Europe appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Mike Fulwood, Jack Sharples and Jonathan Stern about the continuing impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on gas markets. This episode reviews the current flows of gas into Europe from all sources, in particular looking at the continuing decline in imports from Russia and the surprising continuation […]
The post OIES Podcast Series: Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on Energy Markets Series – 20 – European Gas Markets appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
In the third podcast of the OIES’s six-part COP27 series, David Ledesma and James Henderson talk to Anders Hove on the role of electric vehicles in the Energy Transition, Jonathan Stern on the need for action on global methane pledges and with Adnan Shihab-Eldin on nuclear power and how its role in the energy transition […]
The post COP27 Podcast Series – 3: Outlook and challenges that will be faced at COP27, EVs, global methane pledges and role of nuclear appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
In this the second podcast in the OIES’s six-part COP27 series, we look at the outlook and challenges that will be faced at COP27 for two major energy demand centres and one Middle Eastern energy supplier. Mostefa Ouki talks about the host region Africa and the challenges and positions it will put forward at the […]
The post COP27 Podcast Series – 2: Outlook and challenges that will be faced at COP27, Africa, India and Saudi Arabia appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
This the first podcast in a six-part series ahead of COP 27 in which the OIES addresses the outlook for this important climate conference. In discussion, James Henderson and Mari Luomi give their views on the main issues that are likely to be on the agenda at the conference that is being held on the […]
The post COP27 Podcast Series 1: The key issues and challenges for COP27 appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Mike Fulwood, Jack Sharples and Jonathan Stern about the current state of gas supply in Europe and about the reaction of the EU and some European countries to the current high prices as we head towards winter. We review the current flows of pipeline gas into […]
The post OIES Podcast Series: Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on Energy Markets Series – 19 appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
In this podcast David Ledesma talks with Rahmat Poudineh, Senior Research Fellow, and Aliaksei Patonia, Research Fellow on issues and options with respect to long distance transportation of the hydrogen. Hydrogen currently is mainly a local or regional commodity. If hydrogen is to become a truly global-traded commodity, it needs to be transported over long […]
The post OIES Podcast – Global trade of hydrogen: what is the best way to transfer hydrogen over long distances? appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
In this podcast David Ledesma talks to Nicolas Lockhart and Katherine Connolly on the critical question of how should we tackle aviation emissions? Two different regulatory schemes – the EU’s Emission Trading System (ETS) and the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) – are trying to provide […]
The post OIES Podcast – Carbon pricing schemes for Aviation appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson talks with Mike Fulwood, Jack Sharples and David Robinson about the latest news on the flow of Russian gas to Europe and the increasing moves by the EU and national governments to prepare for the winter months and reduce the energy price impact on consumers. The first topic […]
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In June 2022 the revised TEN-E Regulation, updating a regulatory framework for the development of cross-border energy infrastructure in the EU has entered into force. David Ledesma discusses the Regulation with Katja Yafimava, (the author of the recent OIES paper ‘The TEN-E Regulation: allowing a role for decarbonized gas’) and Alex Barnes. This discussion is […]
The post OIES Podcast – TEN-E Regulation and decarbonisation of gas in Europe appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson talks with Mike Fulwood, Jack Sharples and Anouk Honoré about the latest events impacting the European and global gas markets. The discussion opens with a review of recent pricing trends and the drivers of them, before moving on to consider Russian gas flows into Europe, and especially the […]
The post Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on Energy Markets Series – 17 – European Gas Markets appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
In this podcast David Ledesma discusses with Ana Haurie, CEO of the impact-driven carbon finance company, Respira International, her contribution to the June 2022 issue of the OIES Oxford Energy Forum – How the voluntary carbon market is an essential tool for reaching net zero. In this fascinating podcast she explains how a high-quality supply […]
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In this podcast, David Ledesma talks to Hasan Muslemani about his latest publication in the Oxford Energy Forum (Issue 132) entitled ‘To buy or to rent: How the big real estate question became relevant in the carbon removals market’. Hasan discusses an important distinction between ‘removal’ and ‘avoidance’ credits in the market, and another amongst […]
The post OIES Podcast – The role of permanence in defining quality of removal credits in the voluntary carbon market appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson interviews Mike Fulwood on the scenarios for a cut off of Russian gas flows to Europe this winter. They discuss a base Control Case scenario which envisage a continuation of flows and compare it with a No Russian Flows Case, looking at the impact ono the EU as […]
The post OIES Podcast Series: Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on Energy Markets Series – 16 – Gas Markets appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
The introduction of the WTI Midland crude oil into the ‘Brent’ benchmark has caused a fair amount of controversy, debate, and argument. In this podcast David Ledesma discussed this subject with Adi Imsirovic and Kurt Chapman addressing how the industry seems to be gradually reaching a consensus regarding the broad format of the new benchmark: […]
The post OIES Podcast – The Brent Benchmark – Where Do We Stand? appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
In this latest podcast, David Ledesma speaks to Michal Meidan and Yan Qin about China’s carbon neutrality goals in the context of the current turmoil in energy markets and rising concerns about energy security. Much of the commentary and analysis following the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been focused on the consequences for, and reactions of, […]
The post OIES Podcast – China Energy Policies and Carbon Neutrality Post Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
In this latest podcast from OIES James Henderson talks to Jack Sharples about his latest Energy Insight entitled “Falling like Dominoes: The impact of Nord Stream on Russian gas flows to Europe.” They discuss the fact that the decline in Nord Stream capacity in June and July should be seen in the context of a […]
The post OIES Podcast Series: Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on Energy Markets Series – 15 – The importance of flows via Nord Stream appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
In this latest in the OIES podcast series James Henderson speaks to Michal Meidan and Jack Sharples about their contributions to the latest OIES Gas Quarterly, published on 3 August 2022. They start by discussing the latest price trends in the gas market and the impact on the potential for development of new LNG projects […]
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In this podcast David Ledesma discusses African LNG Import potential with Mostefa Ouki, Senior Research Fellow at the OIES. Africa has been a source of natural gas supplies to the rest of the world for almost sixty years. But African LNG exporting sources are limited to a few sub-regions of Africa. Most African countries are […]
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Following a number of requests, this latest OIES podcast covers the topic of the Indian oil market and more specifically the purchase by Indian refiners of discounted Russian crude following the decision of many western companies and countries to avoid Russia’s oil exports. James Henderson interviews Mohua Mukherjee about her thoughts on the current situation […]
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In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson interviews Jack Sharples, Mike Fulwood and Katja Yafimava about their latest OIES Energy Comment “The curious incident of the Nord Stream gas turbine” in which they discuss the recent reductions in gas flows via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. The podcast reviews the history of Nord Stream 1 […]
The post OIES Podcast – Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on Energy Markets Series – 13 – Issues with gas flows via Nord Stream appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
In this latest edition of the OIES podcast series James Henderson discusses the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on oil markets with Bassam Fattouh, the Director of OIES. The podcast opens with a general discussion about the current state of the oil market, addressing both demand and supply issues and assessing the impact of high […]
The post OIES Podcast – OIES Podcast – Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on Energy Markets Series – 12 appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
In this podcast, Malcolm Keay and David Robinson, Senior Research Fellows of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, discuss with David Ledesma two issues central to the energy transition: the need for fundamental structural reform of electricity markets and new approaches to energy networks. They explain how the penetration of intermittent renewables has changed the […]
The post OIES Podcast – Key themes and messages from the OIES Electricity Energy Transition event appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson talks with Mike Fulwood and Jack Sharples about the current state of gas markets in the light of the Russia-Ukraine War. They discuss the recent research paper published by OIES entitled REPower EU and the Short-Term Outlook for the European Gas Market, which explores the impact of gas […]
The post OIES Podcast – Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on Energy Markets Series – 11 appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
In this extended podcast, David Ledesma discusses with James Henderson the key themes and messages from the inaugural Energy Transition days that were held in Oxford, and livestreamed, on 21-22 June 2022. The overall theme was the dichotomy between the environmental goals which must be met in the long-term if climate and temperature targets are to […]
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In this podcast, David Ledesma talks to Michal Meidan, Director of the Gas and China Research Programmes at the OIES, and Byford Tsang who is Senior Policy Advisor at E3G’s Climate Diplomacy team about China’s climate policies and the extent to which China’s 2021 energy crisis and the market turmoil following the Russian invasion of […]
The post OIES Podcast – Will China’s Power Crunch Shift its Climate Policy? appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson discusses the latest developments in Russian gas flows to Europe with Mike Fulwood and Jack Sharples following some dramatic rises in the European gas price catalysed by a reduction in volumes arriving through Nord Stream 1. The team review the key reasons for the reduction in activity on […]
The post OIES Podcast – Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on Energy Markets Series – 10 appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Martin Lambert and Ali Abdelshafy about their recent paper entitled “The Role of CCUS in Decarbonising the Cement Industry: a German case study.” The authors discuss why CCUS is so important in the cement industry, and having outlined the general process of carbon capture and storage […]
The post OIES Podcast – The Role of CCUS in Decarbonising the Cement Industry appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
In this latest OIES podcast on the impact of the Russia Ukraine War on Energy Markets James Henderson talks to Mike Fulwood and Jack Sharples about their views on the gas market and also discusses the European demand response in more detail with Anouk Honore. Jack provides an update on European storage injections and how […]
The post OIES Podcast – Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on Energy Markets Series – 9 appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Robin Baker and Philippe Benoit about their upcoming paper “How Project Finance Can Advance the Clean Energy Transition in Developing Countries.” The authors discuss how the huge investment needed in developing countries to meet climate change targets is becoming a critical issue, and that although significant […]
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In this podcast James Henderson talks to Mohua Mukherjee, Senior Research Fellow at the OIES talk about the electric mobility market in India, with a particular focus on the “budget” end. The podcast highlights the difference between large energy transition assets such as solar parks, wind farms and geothermal projects on the one hand, and […]
The post OIES Podcast – India’s Mass-Market Clean Mobility Initiatives and its Unique, Customized Business Models for Light Electric Vehicles appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson and Mike Fulwood discuss the latest consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on energy markets. They consider the impact of the latest cut-offs of supply to Finland, Denmark and the Netherlands and discuss recent price movements in Europe and the UK, as well as the growing differential between […]
The post OIES Podcast – Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on Energy Markets Series – 8 appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
Energy networks are infrastructures that transfer energy from the production source to the consumers’ premises. They constitute various forms of technologies ranging from established networks, such as electricity and natural gas, to emerging grids, such as hydrogen, heating, and cooling. The net-zero carbon target will result in a significant change in energy systems with important […]
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In this latest OIES podcast – the seventh in our series on the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the European gas market – we continue our analysis of ongoing developments in European gas supply, namely pipeline and LNG imports. With LNG imports at record levels in recent months, and non-Russian pipeline imports […]
The post OIES Podcast – Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on Energy Markets Series – 7 appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
In this podcast David Ledesma talks to Gulmira Rzayeva, Senior Visiting Research Fellow about Turkey’s unprecedented demand surge in 2021. Despite well developed natural gas import capacity and diverse supply sources, security of supply became a major issue for the country during the summer of 2021 and the winter of 2021/2022. At the same time, […]
The post OIES Podcast – Turkey’s gas supply-demand balance and renewal of its long-term contracts appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
In this latest OIES Podcast, David Ledesma is joined by Mike Fulwood and Jack Sharples to discuss the latest trends on the European gas market. We begin with the latest pricing developments, with day-ahead prices in NW Europe declining slightly, while remaining above 90 EUR/MWh. On the supply side, it was noted that in the […]
The post OIES Podcast – Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on Energy Markets Series – 6 appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
In this latest OIES podcast, we continue our weekly updates of the impact of the war between Russia and Ukraine on energy markets. This week James Henderson, Jack Sharples and Mike Fulwood discuss the recent cancelation of the Russian gas export contracts with Poland and Bulgaria and the implications for the European gas market. They […]
The post OIES Podcast – Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on Energy Markets Series – 5 appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
India has taken on the unique challenge of trying to decarbonize while also growing its economy at 8-9% per annum. This is the required growth rate in order to meet the aspirations of its people related to decent employment, reliable economic growth, and improved standards of living. If you’ve heard the expression “trying to change […]
The post OIES Podcast – India’s Progress on its Climate Action Plan appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
In this OIES podcast David Ledesma talks to Michal Meidan about China’s recently published energy five-year plans and how they align with the country’s near-term priorities. David and Michal discuss the macroeconomic outlook in China and the implications of the zero-tolerance approach to COVID for oil and gas demand, as well as how the Russian […]
The post OIES Podcast – China’s energy plans and macroeconomic realities? appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
In this latest OIES podcast we continue our weekly updates of the impact of the war between Russia and Ukraine on energy markets. This week James Henderson, Jack Sharples and Mike Fulwood review continuing flows of Russian gas to Europe, despite the threat of an embargo. We note the increase in volumes since the invasion […]
The post OIES Podcast – Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on Energy Markets Series – 4 appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
In this third of our series on the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on energy markets James Henderson talks to Bassam Fattouh about the impact of a potential Russian oil embargo on oil supply, demand and prices. Dr Fattouh outlines the conclusions from the latest OIES Oil Monthly, which analyses a number of scenarios for […]
The post OIES Podcast – Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on Energy Markets Series – 3 – Oil Market Focus appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
In this podcast, David Ledesma talks to Martin Lambert, Head of OIES Hydrogen Research, about the key messages from the recent European Hydrogen Conference and how they fit with the ongoing research in OIES. In particular, they cover the heightened energy security concerns following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and hydrogen ambitions in the REPowerEU […]
The post OIES Podcast – Hydrogen: Current challenges in creating viable business cases appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
Green Bonds have experienced a massive growth in the recent years and have received growing attention following the Paris Agreement. In this podcast David Ledesma talks to Andrea Maino, Research Fellow at the OIES, about his recent paper “Financing the Energy Transition: The Role, Opportunities and Challenges of Green Bonds” that was published by the […]
The post OIES Podcast – Financing the Energy Transition: The Role, Opportunities and Challenges of Green Bonds appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
Brent is the world’s most important crude oil benchmark. However, the falling production of Brent has forced the price reporting agencies to introduce new grades in the ‘basket’ of crudes eligible for delivery as ‘Brent’ and widen the loading dates that can be used in their assessments. Brent has become just a brand name in […]
The post OIES Podcast – The Future of the Brent Oil Benchmark: A Radical Makeover appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
In this latest OIES podcast we continue our weekly updates of the impact of the war between Russia and Ukraine on energy markets. This week we review the significant increase in global LNG supply and its availability to the European market, while also considering the other sources of non-Russian supply. We also review the flows […]
The post OIES Podcast – Impact of Russia-Ukraine War on Energy Markets Series – 2 appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
In this first of a new series of podcasts, OIES presents a regular review of the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on energy markets. James Henderson interviews Mike Fulwood and Jack Sharples on the drivers of current price dynamics, the situation with Russian gas flows to Europe, the availability of LNG supply to Europe and […]
The post OIES Podcast: Russia-Ukraine War – Impact on Energy Markets Series – 1 appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
In this OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Anouk Honoré and Jack Sharples about the EU plan to diversify gas imports away from Russia in 2022. They discuss the latest strategy published by the European Commission on March 8, which addresses both the supply and demand-side options. The podcast considers the potential to import an […]
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In 2021, China experienced several episodes of power shortages and outages, heightening already existing concerns about energy security. In response, the government instituted a rapid succession of market reforms and other regulatory changes, which have pushed the majority of power users into the power market and also allowed for a wider range of electricity prices. These reforms are likely to carry forward as China plans to have a national power market system fully in place by 2030. But in the short-term, the very heavy focus on energy security has also led to another rush by provinces and state-owned power companies to build new coal plants to meet peak, much of which is arguably uneconomic given that investments in clean energy, storage, efficiency, and flexibility could likely deliver the same benefits at lower cost. In this podcast, David Ledesma discusses these topics and other aspects of ongoing power market changes in China with Yan Qin and Anders Hove.
The post Oxford Energy Podcast – China’s power market reforms in an age of insecurity appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Mike Fulwood and Jack Sharples about their latest research on the possible impact of an interruption of Russian gas supplies to Europe. After a quick update on current gas prices Jack Sharples reviews the current state of gas supply to Europe, looking at flows in 2021 and then taking a more detailed look at daily supply over the past 4-5 months. He then assesses the different routes for Russian exports, considers why they declined in January and early February and then looks at LNG flows and indigenous European production. Mike Fulwood then presents a number of scenarios which consider the possibility of a curtailment or cessation of Russian gas exports to Europe. He discusses the implications for the European gas balance, possible mitigation measures and the likely impact on gas prices. He also reviews the plans put forward by the IEA and the EU to reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian gas.
The post Oxford Energy Podcast – The Russian invasion of Ukraine – implications for the European gas market appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
In this podcast David Ledesma discusses the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for global oil markets with Bassam Fattouh, Director of OIES based on his latest paper: Russia-Ukraine crisis: Implications for global oil markets with Andreas Economou and Ahmed Mehdi. In this wide-ranging discussion, Bassam Fattouh discusses what the potential loss of Russian oil supplies means for the oil market and oil prices and how the sanctions so far have impacted Russian oil supplies. Other issues discussed include whether there is a scope to divert Russian crude from Europe to Asia, the supply and demand responses that could help moderate prices, and the different scenarios that could emerge in the next few months.
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In September-October 2021, China experienced a severe electricity supply crisis that impacted over twenty provinces, leading to industrial curtailment and residential supply cuts in some areas. In this podcast David Ledesma discusses the causes and implications of this supply crisis with Michal Meidan Director of the Gas Research Programme & the China Energy Research Programme at OIES and Philip Andrew-Speed, Research Fellow at the OIES. In this wide-ranging discussion, Philip and Michal discuss the key messages from the forthcoming Oxford Energy Forum in China’s 2021 energy crisis, addressing also how the Chinese government’s ‘dual control’ policy on energy consumption and energy intensity contributed to the crisis. The podcast ends with a forward-looking discussion on the implications for China’s energy policies and markets, as well as the outlook for the 2030-2060 targets (to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and reach carbon neutrality by 2060).
The post Oxford Energy Podcast – The 2021 energy crisis: Implications for China’s energy market and policies appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
In this podcast, James Henderson talks to Anouk Honoré about her forthcoming article “Demand-side factors behind the historical gas price rally in Europe in 2021”. This article is part of a trilogy entitled “A Series of Unfortunate Events” that analyses the main supply and demand factors in the European gas market(s) that contributed to rising gas prices since summer 2021 and culminating in record levels in Q4 2021.
Looking at a European region with 34 countries, gas demand rose by an estimated 6% in 2021, especially driven by the growth in the Turkish market.
Colder temperatures in the first four months boosted gas use for heating in buildings and heating-related electricity consumption; strong recovery in economic activity, especially in the first 3 quarters, led to a rebound in industrial gas demand; and finally the use of gas in the electricity generation remained relatively high despite some gas to coal switching in the second half of the year.
An important take-away highlighted in 2021 was the relative inelasticity of gas demand to react to short-term price changes.
Gas/coal switching in the power sector has been the main source of this flexibility and with the rapid coal phase out expected in many countries in the coming years, gas demand in Europe will become (even) less price responsive. This begs the question about the role of the region as the main balancing market for the global LNG market in the near future.
The post Oxford Energy Podcast – A Series of Unfortunate Events: Demand-Side Factors in the European Gas Price Rally in 2021 appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
The IEA predicts that the need for flexibility in the Indian power system will rise faster than anywhere else in the world, not least because of the ambitious renewable energy targets which require 500 GW of non-hydro capacity by 2030. Integrating this level of non-dispatchable generation requires an effective transformation of the power sector to enable flexible operation of existing power plants as well as incentivization of new sources of flexibility. Distributed energy resources (DERs), which are located close to demand and sourced locally, are a game changer in this respect. From the consumer perspective, they provide control and choice to the users about their electricity usage and costs. From the system perspective, distributed resources not only can lower the peak demand which has recently been increasing in India but also to provide flexibility which is much needed with the decline in the share of thermal generation. In this podcast we discuss the state of DERs in India and key challenges to their uptake in the power system of this country.
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In this podcast David Ledesma discusses with Michal Meidan and James Henderson the main topics from the recently published paper “Key Themes for the Global Energy Economy in 2022”. The podcast begins with a discussion around rising European energy prices and Russian export strategy as well as the future of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. The conversation then moves on to address issues around the energy transition including the important topics discussed at COP26, before addressing the key milestones ahead of the COP27 conference in November 2022. The importance of China’s energy plans for 2022 and the planned negotiations with the US (agreed at COP26) are reviewed, before this wide-ranging podcast moves on to subjects such as the Global Methane Pledge, the future of carbon neutral LNG, the plans for hydrogen projects in 2022, the development of voluntary carbon markets and the prospects for CCUS. Finally the discussants address regulatory developments in Europe, and especially the EU taxonomy, while also reviewing India’s energy transition targets.
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In this podcast David Ledesma discusses with Mike Fulwood, Jack Sharples and Katja Yafimava the latest OIES Quarterly Gas Review that takes an in-depth look at the impact on the European gas market of recent geopolitical tensions between Russia and the West over the Russian build-up of troops close to the Ukrainian border as well as the regular short-term gas market analysis. The podcast discusses the level of Europe’s dependence on Russian gas supplies and the relative lack of alternatives beyond quicker storage withdrawals and efforts to attract more cargoes from the global LNG market (due to declining European gas production and the fact that pipeline imports from Norway, North Africa, and Azerbaijan have already seemingly reached peak levels). While the discussion considers that it is unlikely that either European sanctions would prevent the purchase of Russian gas or that the Russian government would order a partial or complete curtailment of pipeline gas supplies to Europe in breach of long-term contracts; the outbreak of military conflict would almost certainly result in an immediate spike in European prices due to uncertainty over the pace and extent of the escalation of hostilities. The podcast also discusses the certification of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and asks if the gas could start flowing in 2022, or whether the Ukraine situation could delay approvals further or even lead to its cancellation.
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The Northern Sea Route (NSR) – an Arctic seas shortcut between Europe and Asia – has emerged as a new strategic opportunity for unlocking and monetizing Russia’s vast oil and gas reserves in the Arctic. In this podcast David Ledesma discusses with Vitaly Yermakov how the NSR is an important element of Russia’s Arctic strategy, that now incorporates active development of the hydrocarbon riches in the Russian Arctic, development of the Arctic ports and other infrastructure. The discussion also notes how expanding the use of the NSR will require Russia to expand its domestic capabilities in shipbuilding of Arctic-class tankers and the development of a new generation of nuclear icebreakers that involve economic multipliers and are seen as important engines of economic growth and job creation in Russia. Russia has formulated ambitious goals for increasing NSR transportation turnover by 2035, relying primarily on a handful of oil and LNG projects by Gazpromneft, Novatek, and Rosneft. From a geo-political standpoint, the NSR provides a new avenue for developing international relations with new and existing customers for Russian hydrocarbons, while also allowing Russia to compete with key rivals in a rapidly globalizing market.
The post Oxford Energy Podcast – The role of the Northern Sea Route for Russia’s Arctic hydrocarbon developments and Russia’s LNG exports appeared first on Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
In this OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Professor Jonathan Stern about his latest paper, entitled “Measuring, Reporting and Verification of Methane Emissions from Natural Gas and LNG Trade.” Following the signing of the Global Methane Pledge at COP26 and the publication of the EU Methane Strategy the topic of methane emissions has become a priority for the energy sector, and Stern discusses the need for companies to be transparent and rigorous in their analysis of the problem. He also considers the examples of the six major pipeline gas and LNG suppliers to Europe in the context of the EU’s proposal to introduce a carbon border adjustment mechanism. Finally, he addresses the practical implications for “carbon neutral” LNG, and suggests a redefinition that focuses on the accurate measurement and reporting of GHG emissions before any offsetting mechanisms are considered.
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In this OIES podcast James Henderson talks with Professor Thane Gustafson about his new book entitled “Klimat: Russia in the Age of Climate Change”. They discuss the challenges which Russia will face from the energy transition both in terms of declining hydrocarbon export revenues and also from internal changes to the Russian environment. Professor Gustafson outlines the potential sources of alternative export revenues, including LNG, metals and minerals, agriculture, nuclear energy and renewables but concludes that none of them will be adequate to replace the huge hole that is set to be left in Russian budget revenues as oil, gas and coal demand and prices fall over time. He also looks at the impact of climate change in the Arctic, often regarded as a benefit for Russia, and argues that it will create as many negatives as positives. However, he concludes that, despite the potential bleak outlook, there is hope in the emerging new generation of Russian leaders who are aware of all the issues and have the potential to put the country on a more positive route to adaptation and diversification.
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In this podcast, David Ledesma talks to Jack Sharples about his recent paper on the supply-side factors behind the 2021 gas price rally in Europe, and the supply-side outlook for the rest of winter 2021/22. The ongoing decline in European gas production was exacerbated in 2021 by temporary maintenance-related declines in the UK and Denmark, while the rebound in 2022 will be limited. Pipeline supplies from Norway, Algeria, and Azerbaijan were higher year-on-year. Conversely, physical flows from Russia were virtually flat year-on-year, and down sharply from 2017-2019 levels. Global LNG supply grew year-on-year, but that growth was tempered by unplanned outages. Conversely LNG demand outside Europe grew strongly. As a result, LNG supplies to Europe were constrained compared to 2019 and 2020. To balance the market, substantial net withdrawals from storage were made in Q1 and Q4 2021, with slower than usual injections in Q2 and Q3, resulting in European storage stocks lower than usual at the end of the year. Overall, these supply-side constraints were key drivers of the 2021 gas price rally. Looking to Q1-2022, the combination of a modest supply-side outlook and lower than usual storage stocks will likely support prices at high levels through to the end of winter.
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In this OIES podcast David Ledesma interviews Patrick Heather about his analysis of the European traded gas hubs in 2020 and the first ten months of 2021. The podcast highlights how TTF has continued to see phenomenal growth and its is the European hub that has the greatest number of market participants, trades the widest range of products over the entire curve and has by far the highest churn rate. NBP however, and the Belgian hubs, have continued to see decline. In the podcast Patrick notes that the European traded gas hubs have assisted the gas sector in managing their supply, distribution and sales needs, their physical balancing requirements, and their risk management and trading strategies and that they have been particularly important in the past two very difficult years, and that the markets have worked. The podcast also discussed the merger of the German hubs to create the New German Trading Hub Europe and concludes that its success to date have been limited.
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In this podcast, David Ledesma talks to Michal Meidan, (Director of the China Energy Programme at OIES), Philip Andrews-Speed (Senior Research Fellow, OIES & Senior Principal Fellow at the Energy Studies Institute, National University of Singapore) and Anders Hove, (Project Director for the Energy Transition project at GIZ & Research Associate, OIES) about the key takeaways from their paper : “Software versus hardware: how China’s institutional setting helps and hinders the clean energy transition”. They discuss how China’s institutional settings and governance structures both help and hinder the energy transition. Indeed, some observers assume that China’s interventionist management of the economy and dominance of state-owned monopolies will hinder the transition as they limit market forces and private enterprise. Others point to China’s strong central state and high-level commitments to climate change to suggest that China’s institutions are better suited to addressing environmental problems than those of liberal democracies. The reality is that a strong central government can guide certain outcomes, but local governments, state-owned enterprises can slow change at times. Limited market signals can also slow progress. In this discussion, the speakers set out a preliminary framework for analysing the areas where technological and institutional factors make change more likely to be lasting and transformative, versus areas in which resistance will likely remain strong.
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In this podcast, David Ledesma talks to Martin Lambert about his recent paper on the energy transition in Japan and the implications for gas. They discuss the unique challenges which Japan faces in meeting its ambitious decarbonisation targets of 46% reduction by 2030 and net zero by 2050. They cover the range of options available for Japan, including the challenges around nuclear power, following the Fukushima accident in 2011, and the potential for wind and solar power generation to scale up. They also discuss other alternatives which are perhaps less often considered like geothermal power, carbon capture and storage and low carbon hydrogen and ammonia. Pulling the alternatives together, they discuss the scenarios developed as part of the research for the paper and compare them with the official Japanese government plan published by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI). Finally, they consider the implications for the future of gas and LNG in Japan and the increasing uncertainty related to the energy transition.
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In this latest edition of the OIES podcast series David Ledesma and James Henderson reflect on the outcomes of COP26 from an energy sector perspective. They review the main goals of the COP and discuss the conclusions of both the formal UNFCCC process as well as a number of initiatives that were developed by the UK presidency. In particular they look at the future of coal as a result of various agreements reached in Glasgow and also consider the roles of China and India in the negotiations on this issue. They also summarise they important announcements on the global methane pledge and the final agreement on Article 6, which creates the rulebook for international carbon markets. Finally, they consider the impact of COP26 on the oil and gas sectors, and ask whether abated hydrocarbons can have a role in the future energy mix given the discussions on CCUS and hydrogen in Glasgow.
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In this podcast related to the latest OIES Quarterly Gas Review, David Ledesma discusses with Mike Fulwood and Jack Sharples the short-term gas pricing developments, with a focus on the very sharp rise in wholesale gas prices in recent months. The discussion considers the extent to which the growth in LNG demand outstripped supply at a global level, how Europe – as the ‘balancing market’ for global LNG – faced a combination of lower LNG imports, lower pipeline imports, and lower ‘domestic’ production, leaving storage to balance the market, the role of rising carbon and power prices in pushing up gas prices in Europe, and the influence of trading activities on surging European gas prices in September and October 2021. The conversation also focusses on the extent to which the factors that underpinned the gas price rally of 2021 were temporary (and thus liable to contribute to gas prices falling back in 2022) and the extent to which they are structural (supporting higher prices in the future). The podcast ends with Mike Fulwood summarising a special piece from the quarterly on LNG demand in South America.
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This OIES podcast is based on Dr Katja Yafimava’s new OIES Energy Insight “Nord Stream 2: on the verge of sending gas to Europe”. In conversation with Dr James Henderson, Katja takes stock of Nord Stream 2 recent developments and muses on just how close – or far – the Nord Stream 2 pipeline system, two lines of which have been built and one line has been filled with gas, might be from sending gas to Europe. She outlines several scenarios, some of which see flows in winter 2021-22 and some – not until summer 2022, and discusses various factors, which might have an impact on which scenario will materialise, including the Ukraine’s transit role post-2024. Katja also explains the intricacies of technical and regulatory certification processes, focusing on the latter, including in respect of security is supply assessment and the choice of unbundling model.
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