Reformasi Dispatch: Recent Episodes
On The Level Media
Independent and lucid analysis of Indonesian politics, policymaking, justice, and economics featuring Kevin O’Rourke and Jeff Hutton. The podcasts incorporate exclusive interviews with experts and draws on content from the Reformasi Weekly reports, produced for subscribers since 2003.
Reliable new polling suggests the national mood may be shifting away from the president. BI's esteemed governor abruptly resigns and attention will focus on whether the central bank will fall fully under personalized political control. MUI discusses Anti-LGBT legislation. A push is underway for recycling and composting in Jakarta. And the ASEAN Ministers Meeting marks another incremental step towards accepting Myanmar's junta.
Watch the video version on our YouTube: https://youtu.be/Y-IgjajkciE
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An embarrassment of riches befell the top prosecutor in Indonesia's AGO when police discovered seven suitcases of gold bars in the closet of his golf home. But the prosecutor, Deputy AG Febrie Adriansyah, has not entered custody and his AGO colleagues will ostensibly handle his prosecution. The Reformasi Dispatch podcast delves into the details of what transpired, what it reveals about key security organs and their mutual hostilities -- and what it means for politics. Also: opprobrium for the public works minister, an ammunition factory for Haji Isam and polished viral videos of violence against trans women.
Watch it on YouTube as well: https://youtu.be/NxAepA3qJFM?si=TVcEDKv2xl-gYwqh
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Reformasi Dispatch discusses: the Nadiem Makarim verdict and its effects on sentiment as well as procurement; the VP sweepstakes ahead of the 2029 scheduled election; the increasing urgency of kickstarting deliberations on a National Elections Law revision; and a spate of visits to Jakarta by heads of state; and a spate of deaths in the training of Red-White Cooperative managers.
Watch it on YouTube: https://youtu.be/ASEPMbIW2Ew
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In this special Pride month episode of Reformasi Dispatch, Kevin and Erin talk to legendary LGBTQ activist Dédé Oetomo to talk about his activism work, the recent rise of homophobic attacks and his words for future activists.
Watch the video version on our YouTube: https://youtu.be/m4Qqz61WI4k
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The students are back! And so is Reformasi Dispatch co-founder Jeff Hutton, who rejoins Erin and Kevin after his academic sojourn. He shares his impressions of Indonesia's latest generation of campus youth -- their views, changes over time, and the pressures they face. Plus, insights on the Jakarta protests that producer Steven Handoko covered up close in person. And finally: a look at the government's messaging on the rupiah and conditions for investment.
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After a precipitous drop in both the rupiah and the Indonesian Stock Index, Kevin and Erin round up the assorted moves implemented by the government to bolster confidence and restore stability (spoiler: there were none). Next, do a sudden spate of arrests denote rifts between rival elements of the security forces? And what do the contents of suspects' garages tell us? Finally, the Palace reaction to criticism of Prabowo's penchant for Paris, and a ditty about the energy minister pairs a delightful tune with venomous lyrics.
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As the rupiah continues to slide, the government is exacerbating business sentiment by imposing an export marketing board for palm oil, coal and ferroalloys. Kevin and Erin discuss the background, implications, and outlook in the latest edition of the Reformasi Dispatch podcast on Indonesian politics and policymaking. Also in this episode: a fourth presidential visit to Paris; the Army's Pesta Babi counter-narrative (spoiler: it was Soros); and the EU Parliament calls for accountability for the Andrie Yunus acid attack.
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Manila awaits the fate of the Dutertes. Prabowo makes an impression in Cebu for Asean's Summit, militarily and sartorially. Amien Rais's claims of an "offside" relationship between Prabowo and Teddy sparks a backlash. The Police Reform Commission wraps up just as unrest affects Jayapura. And the Rupiah slides to a new low, posing a quandary for the president and focusing attention on policymaking.
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Indonesian politics this week featured mini-reshuffle of three cabinet & cabinet-level posts -- Kevin and Erin discuss the motives, consequences and who gained an advantage (spoiler: the Army). Also: a rail disaster, the start of the trial of Andrie Yunus's attackers and uproar over Lt Col Teddy eating cake. Also: a long-awaited trade reform package finally receives some discussion.
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Amid pressure on the freedom of expression in Indonesia, Reformasi Dispatch examines the dynamics with Wahyu Dyatmika, a director of the Tempo Media Group. Wahyu joins the pod to discuss attitudes in civil society and the media in the wake of the acid attack on Andrie Yunus, including whether self-censorship is becoming more prevalent in the media. Wahyu, Erin and Kevin also discuss institutional rivalries that the acid attack exposed, as well as potential fallout ahead from the global energy crisis and LPG supply constraints.
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An interruption in shipments of LPG, the ubiquitous cooking fuel in Indonesia, will likely cause shortages soon, with consequences for the image of the administration. And to safeguard petrol and diesel, Indonesia is moving towards rationing and even greater use of biodiesel. Meanwhile, Tempo has produced revelations about how the acid attack on Andrie Yunus unfolded -- with signs of an institutional approach and broad targets. And Kevin and Erin discuss a consortium poll on attitudes toward democracy, military politics and President Prabowo's foreign policy approach to Gaza and the Board of Peace.
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In this week's episode of the Reformasi Dispatch podcast on Indonesia - with an energy crunch looming, will the government hike fuel prices or ration subsidized petrol?
Will LPG supplies hold out? And will discomforts prove particularly awkward politically, given Prabowo's membership on the Board of Peace?
Also: How energy shortages are manifesting in regional neighbours. In policy developments, a draft decree in lieu of law (Perppu) would focus on economic crimes. And the military ousted the three-star head of intelligence (Bais) as a 'form of accountability' for the acid attack on Andrie Yunus. Kevin and Erin discuss possible explanations for the military's course of action.
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A military critic from the human rights group Kontras suffered a harrowing attack with acid that burned him badly. What does this portend for expression? In turn, police examined over 80 CCTV cameras and identified the suspected perpetrators - officers from military intelligence. Does this reflect rivalries between elements of the state apparatus? Also: How ASEAN states are reacting and adapting to the war on Iran, including geopolitics as well as energy disruptions. Prabowo called for 100 Gigawatts of solar power.
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President Prabowo reacts to the US-Israel invasion of Iran -- offer to mediate, assembles luminaries including former presidents, and then sets 'ready alert' (siaga satu) status for the military. An array of groups and figures speak out against Prabowo's alignment with the US in the Board of Peace and concessions in the Recriprocal Trade Agreement. Likelihood of a prolonged conflict in Iran point to economic impacts for Indonesia. A court acquits Delpedro Marhaen, an activist apprehended last August for demonstrations. And the government is restricting social media accounts for minors under age 16.
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This week in Indonesia - Erin & Kevin examine Indonesia's reciprocal trade agreement (ART) with the US; a slander case brewing against the popular satirist Pandji Pragiwaksono; and, further afield, Thailand's election and the growing popularity in the Philippines of VP Sarah Duterte.
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Electoral changes and a possible move to amend the Constitution are topics that Iqbal Kholidin of the Center for Democracy (Perludem) discusses in this week's edition of the Reformasi Dispatch podcast on Indonesian politics. Erin and Kevin also discuss the stock market sell-off, the abrupt resignation of the chief financial regulator Mahendra Siregar, and the president's cancellation of Jardine Matheson's Martabe gold mine in North Sumatra. Also: a tragic youth suicide case has gripped the nation's attention.
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To examine Thailand's upcoming election, Uday Bakhshi of Apac Assistance joins the Reformasi Dispatch podcast and outlines the players, prospects and scenarios -- including the 8 February referendum on yet another Constitution. Also: Myanmar conducts a sham election; Indonesia joins Trump's Board of Peace -- generating backlash; rumors abound of an imminent change in the foreign affairs portfolio; and the tragedy of the collapse of a mountainside in Cisarua.
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Kevin and Erin talk to former US diplomat Brandon Possin on Trump's invasion of Venezuela and what to expect of the administration. Also: Stand up comic and government critic Pandji Pragiwaksono could face a blasphemy charge for his Netflix special Mens Rea after he was reported by a youth group. And Thomas Djiwandono, the President's nephew is named as a candidate for Deputy Governor of Bank Indonesia, a move that shows administration's reach on monetary policy.
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Joining the pod is Isanksarsyah Bakri, senior advisor to the Aceh governor, for a discussion of the livelihoods crisis facing the province after the 23 November Senyar Cyclone devastated half of Aceh's districts. Also: Erin and Kevin look at the Information Ministry's ban of the Grok AI nudify function on Elon Musk's X; Prabowo's travel plans; and Megawati's emphatic denunciation of Trump's neo-colonial folly. And a spelling correction for last week's blurb: our interview guest was Monica Wihardja (not Suhardja).
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Burhanuddin Muhtadi of the polling firm Indikator politik, together with Monica Wihardja of ISEAS, join the pod to discuss their empirical analysis of disinformation mesaging in the 2024 Presidential contest. Spoiler: Beware of TikTok. Pak Burhan also comments on Presidential support ratings. Also; Kevin and Erin discuss disaster relief, a regional head election bill and KPK scrutiny of Ridwan Kamil.
You can read Burhanuddin and Monica's research here: chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://www.iseas.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/TRS10_25.pdf
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Dr Chris Chaplin joins the pod to discuss the latest in politics, and the background to his new analytical endeavor, www.cearta.co. Also: police appointments, electoral law revisions and international cyclone aid.
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Kevin and Erin talk with researcher Garda Ramadhito on Prabowo's Palestine peace-keeping plans and political Islam in his term. Also, the political and environmental reckoning in Sumatra's devastating flooding and the KPK takes a look at its own handling of a case involving Bobby Nasution.
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A week of superlatives for Indonesia - the tragic Senyar cyclone is the largest on record to hit Indonesia; a tax bribery case is affecting a key owner of the most profitable bank, BCA; a leadership struggle has incapacitated the largest Islamic organization, Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), at a time when Indonesia prepares for its largest-ever deployment of peacekeepers to Gaza; and Danantara seeks a role in a long-awaited potential GoTo-Grab merger that would constitute an on-demand behemoth with 90% market share. Otherwise, no drama.
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Kevin talks to Matt Busch on his new book "The Contested State: The Indonesian Bank Restructuring Agency during the Asian Financial Crisis."
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Joining the pod is Dr Seth Soderborg to discuss polling trends in Indonesia. Also discussed: Soeharto's annointment as hero, the outlook for the new Police Reform Commission, improved BI foreign reserves, an Australian Defence Treaty and a bombing by a youth at a school in Kelapa Gading.
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In this episode: plans for bestowing hero status on Soeharto, exonerating parliamentarians for August excesses, the president's message to police, and Myanmar's junta poses for polls.
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In this episode: the Golkar chair seeks criminal defamation charges for social-media users who distribute disagreeable memes; Prabowo proffers Gaza engagement, but with political pitfalls - as seen at Asean's summit attended by Trump; and Sjafrie seriously considers a purchase of yet more fighter jets, from China.
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Our pod guest Krista Shennum from Climate Rights International discussed CRI's extensive field research on nickel sector impacts on communities across a swathe of Eastern Indonesia -- from pollution such as acid rain, health adversities such as skin afflictions, disasters such as dam breaks and disputes over land rights and compensation. An interviewee asked, 'Does anyone care?', which is CRI's report title. Also in this episode: Erin & Kevin discuss the "Hari" referred to by two presidents, Trans7's pesantren debacle and expatriate directors in an SOE.
Read Climate Rights International report here: https://cri.org/reports/does-anyone-care/
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This week: Prabowo and Widodo together again; signs of sensitivity on free lunches; the new finance minister makes a rocky start; and the Al-Khoziny disaster in Sidoarjo.
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This week: Prabowo's address to the UN General Assembly and the signing of trade agreements (CEPAs) with both Canada and the EU. Prabowo's signature program, free school lunches, faces criticism with almost 6,000 children having suffered food poisoning. Almost 1,000 people remain in custody for the August demonstrations and riots. And radioactive Cesium-137 turned up in tons of exported shrimp.
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In this episode: A new finance minister, a cabinet reshuffle, the Nation's Conscience Movement, Thaksin detained, Anti-elite movements from Kathmandu to Manila, deadly floods in Bali and Freeport workers trapped
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Joining us to consider recent developments -- namely, unrest, economic frustrations and democratic hopes -- is Prof Ian Wilson, principal fellow of the Indo-Pacific Research Centre at Murdoch University.
Read Ian Wilson's article here: https://indonesiaatmelbourne.unimelb.edu.au/who-speaks-for-the-riot-youth-agency-and-the-contest-over-protest-narratives/
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'Let them eat kue!' Kevin and Erin update the escalation of protests over the weekend throughout Indonesia, surrounding the death of 21-year-old delivery-bike driver Affan Kurniawan, crushed by an armored police vehicle.
The ensuing frenzy witnessed the looting of houses of several parliamentarians as well as that of Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati (she was away). Who is the orchestrator? Who is the dastardly criminal mastermind? Is it "foreign actors"? (Morgan Freeman?) Spoiler alert it was the internet...
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This week, protests Monday set the scene for a chaotic week. Elsewhere, Immanuel Ebenezer's arrest marks the first cabinet alleged corruption case and a new addition to the Constitutional Court shores up government support on the bench. Please note this podcast was recorded Thursday afternoon Jakarta time and there will be more to come.
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We apologize for the sending awrong buymeacoffeelink earlier. We have corrected the URL. It should be buymeacoffee.com/reformasi
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Prabowo celebrated Indonesia"s 80th anniversary of Independence at the Palace. Residents of Pati protested against their district chief, backed by a nationwide online campaign. And Setya Novanto, disgraced former Speaker of the House who was sentenced to 15 years in prison, won release.
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Better than expected GDP data shows resilience in the economy, but is not without controversy. Also: startling personnel changes in Gerindra and a state bank, and a plan for aiding Gazans.
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This week - the patronage politics of pardon power plays; a test to freedom of expression from cartoon pirates; funding cooperatives from the accumulated deficit-financing surplus (Sal); and a listener's question on good sources for analysis of the ASEAN-wide political economy.
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Tensions erupted along the Thai-Cambodia border as five days of skirmishing caused 32 deaths. Anwar Ibrahim of Malaysia sat down with the Thai and Cambodian PMs; ASEAN centrality shone as he brokered a ceasefire. The next day he visited Prabowo and addressed the ASEAN Secretariat.
Prabowo gives an hour-long speech at PSI, talking about elephants; the new PSI logo, his commitment to elephant conservation, all while omitting the elephant in the room: Trump's lopsided tariff negotiation with Indonesia.
Also, Hasto Kristianto, former Secretary General of PDI-P was found guilty of corruption in Harun Masiku's case and sentenced to four and a half years.
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Prabowo went to Brussels to meet with Ursula Von der Leyen to finalize the long awaited Indonesia-EU CEPA. Trump announced 19% tariff announcement on Truth Social. Tom Lembong was sentenced to 4 and a half years, a loud political statement on what dissent will cost and a warning for other Ministers not to cross Prabowo.
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This week: we discuss a Java-Bali ferry disaster, Gibran's new assignment, Prabowo's Brics Summit, Trump's revised tariff threat and, not least - aura farming.
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Paetongtarn is out, an Indonesian influencer is arrested and sentenced to 7 years in Myanmar's Insein prison, a new Constitutional Court decision on election scheduling is causing a stir.
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In this interview with Dr. Rien Dam, an expert on water and land management, Kevin talks about the long-discussed plan of North Jakarta sea wall program.
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Prabowo snubs G7 invitation and heads for St. Petersburg to meet Putin. Indonesia-EU Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement coming to a conclusion. A spotlight on nickel mining island in Raja Ampat islands. A dispute between Aceh and North Sumatra regarding the status of four islands. Fadli Zon's insistent on denying rapes happening in 1998 riots showed willingness from Government to change narratives and history. Attorney General's Office seized 11 trillion Rupiah from palm oil company Wilmar pertaining to bribery scandal in 2021.
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A tension brewed up albeit briefly between Thailand and Cambodia after Thai forces kill a Cambodian soldier. A group of retired soldiers continue to push for Gibran's impeachment, an allegation towards Education Ministry's tender can put Former Education Minister Nadiem Makarim in a crosshair
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Kevin talks to Glenn Hurowitz of Mighty Earth on Food estate program in Papua. Also, French President Emmanuel Macron pays a visit to the Palace and Borobudur. Police arrested 93 Trisaksti students on the day of remembrance of Reformasi. Ojek drivers held a demonstration responding to the talks of merger between Grab and Gojek.
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Kevin and Erin talk to Alon Aviram of Gecko Project on his collaborative investigative reporting regarding Chromium-6 exposure in waters of Obi Island as a result of Harita's nickel expansion. Also, PM Albanese visits Indonesia a day after his second inauguration.
Read Gecko Project's investigation here: https://thegeckoproject.org/articles/clean-cars-poisoned-water/
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Policies of consigning youths deemed problematic to military barracks caused a controversy and an ITB student who made an ai-generative image of Jokowi and Prabowo kissing was arrested with ITE law.
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As Singaporeans go to the polls, Kevin and Erin talk to Kirsten Han of We The Citizen and Mekong Review on the country's 9-day campaign. Also, Jokowi's visit to the Vatican and later to police HQ to file defamation charges against those who call his diploma a forgery. And a formidable group of military retirees call for impeaching the VP.
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Kevin and Erin talk to Angus Mackintosh of CrossASEAN research on the recent stock market dynamics and outlook. Also a report on Russian airbase in Biak became a hot topic for the Australian election. And Widodo received visitors while an Indonesian delegation starts tariff negotiations.
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Ristian Atriandi of ANU joins Kevin and Erin to discuss TNI Law. Also, Prabowo finally meets Mega, response to Trump tariffs and its delay.
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A 7.7 Richter scale earthquake devastates Myanmar, Thanksin Shinawatra joins the board of Danantara, Indonesia braces for a new set of reciprocal tariffs from Trump, and protests against TNI law continues in several cities.
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Kevin and Erin spoke to Fabby Tumiwa of IESR on renewable energy. Also: the new military law, IHSG plunges, and Tempo received threats.
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Jonathan Head of the BBC joins the pod to discuss Myanmar's scam center
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Erin and Kevin catch up with Wahyu Dyatmika to talk about Prabowo's approach to media, especially after Prabowo's meeting with editor in chiefs in Hambalang on Saturday. Also: Corruption case in Pertamina involving son of Riza Chalid, and Thailand sends Uyghurs back to China after leaving them in immigration detention for a decade.
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Student led protests erupt in several cities in Indonesia. Prabowo announced a new round of budget cuts for Danantara. A punk rock duo Sukatani was forced to make an apology video after their song on Police graft went viral. It ironically became the anthem of the protest on Friday. And Hasto Kristiyanto, Secretary General of PDI-P was arrested.
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Jon Lindborg, a veteran in development, discusses the impact of the USAID freeze on Indonesia. Also: budget cutbacks and an arrest in the Finance Ministry.
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Indikator Politik's polling corroborates earlier Kompas polling on President's popularity but the majority is against his discourse on changing electoral system. Also: A snaking queue for 3 kg LPG canister after a new policy, Elon Musk's policy of downsizing the US Government starts to take shape after halting funding for USAID, and DHE policy is enacted for March after prabowo's meeting with Ministers.
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Kevin and Erin talk to Seth about new Litbang Kompas polling regarding Prabowo's sky-high approval rating. Also, sea fences north of Jakarta caused blame game in the government.
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Usman Hamid of Amnesty International Indonesia joins Kevin and Erin to discuss about systemic problems in the police force, human rights violations in Papua, Prabowo's Ministers' denial of past gross human rights vioaltions and deteriorating state of democracy.
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Myanmar's Deterioration and interview with David Mathieson. Also: launch of lunches (sans Prabowo). Hasto named suspect and VAT hike cancelled.
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In this episode: 12% VAT confirmed for 2025, Jokowi's absence from Golkar's event and ouster from PDI-P. And a talk with Lauri Myllyvirta of CREA on Prabowo's ambitious energy transition plan.
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In this episode: a welcome volte-face on prisoner exchanges; another rise in fiscal-policy stakes; and a plan for expanding the Army. Also: Khoirunnisa Agustyati of Perludem discussed the regional-head elections and upcoming political-law revisions.
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In this episode: Verbal brawls in Manila escalate between Marcos and VP Duterte, preliminary results of Pilkada in Indonesia. Plus, an interview with the economic analyst Bert Gochet on the interactions between geopolitical uncertainties and Indonesia's approach to development.
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In this episode: A special episode on the upcoming Pilkada (regional elections) with Seth Soderborg of SNS Analytics.
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In this episode: Interview with Ristian Atriandi Supriyanto of Universitas Indonesia on Indonesia and China's joint agreement regarding South China Sea. Also: New SMRC polling on Jakarta race, Prabowo's visit to US.
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Read Ristian's op-ed here: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/check-not-check-mate-indonesia-s-nine-dash-line-mistake
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Season 4 Episode 37: Prabowo's moves, US election impact, Labor Law, electoral reforms
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In this episode: Interview with Anindya Restuviani of Jakarta Feminist. Also: inauguration address, cabinet contours, arrest by AGO, BRICSmembership, new agencies.
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Interview with 'Majapahit' author Herald van der Linde - pluralism, commerce and justice in pre-modern Indonesia. Plus, a look at the likely new cabinet roster with some positive late-stage alterations.
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In this episode: Asean Summit, Jakarta governor debate, investigation in South Kalimantan, fiscal deficit outlook, cabinet-roster prognostications.
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This week: Erin Cook talks to Rio Tuasikal on his paper regarding media coverage of AI in Indonesia. Also, Regional-head races, ethanol production, cabinet formation and new legislative leaderships
Read Rio Tuasikal's research on media coverage of AI in Indonesia: https://drive.google.com/file/d/15u1m5c7V0mfx_i2Jip2g687-HIKMVbZu/view
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This week: Sri Mulyani speculation, Kiwi pilot released, cabinet rumors and sand exports. Also: Prof James Guild discusses the Widodo-era legacy of infrastructure development.
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This week: the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce (Kadin) takeover, Widodo's offspring under fire, and updates on the politics of regional-head elections.
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Following the profound setback to democratization from Golkar's takeover, constitutional justices undertook a spirited effort to restore competition to regional-head elections -- only for parliament to countermand the court a day later with a Regional Head Election Law revision. To examine the whiplash-like effects of events, we enlisted the veteran journalist Wahyu Dhyatmika of Tempo - the venerable news group that occupies a central role in documenting Indonesia's political convulsions. We discuss the circumstances of Golkar Chair Airlangga Hartarto's resignation, the ensuing cabinet reshuffle, two momentous Constitutional Court verdicts on 20 August and the legislative reprisal led by Gerindra in parliament. We assess the prospects for demonstrations, the implications for the legitimacy of the regional‑head election system and the longer-term consequences for the rule-of-law versus "Ruler's Law". Credit to our intrepid journalist-and-sound engineer Steven Handoko for turning around the audio file in record time and keeping the content fresh!
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President Widodo and Prabowo Subianto need no longer contend with restiveness from Indonesia's second-largest party: Golkar Chair Airlangga Hartarto sensationally resigned and his replacement will be the Widodo-Prabowo loyalist Bahlil Lahadahlia.
Kevin and Erin discuss the implications for democratization (spoiler: not good) and, specifically, regional-head races (not good either). For Jakarta's race, the maneuvering will exclude incumbent Gov Anies Baswedan, ensuring the election of Ridwan Kamil as the only party-backed nominee on the ballot - and we examine comparable dynamics in several other provinces. But, if Widodo emerges as chair of Golkar Advisory Board that has expanded powers, how will that function in practice? Indonesia's attempt at a duumvirate inevitably entails inherent tensions.
Also: the attempted comeback of the Constitutional Court's former chief justice, Anwar Usman; the abrupt resignation of a key Information Ministry official; and, in Thailand, the ouster of Prime Minister Sretta and his replacement with Paetongtarn (Ung Ing) Shinawatra.
Finally: an interview on human trafficking with the Airlangga University PhD candidate in labor migration studies, Aniello Iannone. We discuss the dimensions and dynamics of illegal trafficking (TPPO) in Indonesia, domestically and internationally, including the mechanisms of agents operating at the community level - and how certain civil-society organizations are striving to safeguard victims, including children.
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This week, Southeast Asia's politics witnessed the dissolution of Thailand's most popular party (again), and strides in Indonesia's regional‑head elections to thwart the administration's rivals -- in which case, ballots in November may literally feature empty boxes for voters' only alternative to a nominee of a hegemonic alliance. Also: Erin and Kevin discuss Sheikh Hasina's downfall in Dhaka, as well as a breakthrough Indonesian health reform and latest developments on the Nusantara capital project.
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Indonesia's president-elect set a distinctive tone by making visits to France, Serbia, Turkey and Russia. Kevin and Erin examine some takeaways (more on the Kremlin call in the next pod.) Meanwhile, President Widodo breaks in the Nusantara Palace and hosts influencers. Also: the Asean foreign ministers' retreat in Laos and a grotesque verdict for a grotesque crime in Surabaya.
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The passing of the Communist Party's general secretary has the makings of a watershed for modern Vietnam - yet the public domain is distinctly unruffled. To talk through the reactions and implications of the unfolding transition, we reach out to the writer and podcaster of Vietnam Weekly, Mike Tatarski. Spoiler: unknowns abound. And in Indonesia: Erin and Kevin consider a bevy of Prabowo-oriented appointments, the military's yen for business and the pitfalls of zoomorphic forms in palace architecture.
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To read about Vietnam Weekly, go here: https://vietnamweekly.substack.com/
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In a special 1-hr interview, Reformasi Dispatch consults the Indonesian polling expert, Dr Seth Soderberg, on a new batch of survey findings for gubernatorial contests in five major provinces. With contests taking place in over 570 regions simultaneously, the 27 November elections pose a momentous juncture for shaping Indonesia's political future. With new data from Indikator Politik and Kompas, we examine the context and conditions for the jockeying and campaigning that lies ahead. This includes prospects for Anies Baswedan, Ridwan Kamil, Bobby Nasution, Airin Diany and the firebrand upstart Basuki Purnama ('Ahok') -- along with some of the possible permutations of party alliances. And finally: weighing the prospects for the president's younger son Kaesang Pangarep.
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Curious circumstances surround June's hack of a national data center (PDNS II) and Nenden of Safenet, a premier CSO on online rights, joins the pod to help de-encrypt. We discuss the safety protocols, the hackers' demands and where accountability lies. Also: Erin and Kevin examine a momentous change at the top of the General Election Commission (KPU) and the implications for the president's younger son. And finally: the president-elect's brother-in-law weighs in on building new capitals versus disbursing free lunches.
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For a comprehensive overview of the dynamics unfolding in Myanmar, Erin and Kevin consult Apac Assistance analyst Ragyeshri Sudaroli, who underscores the imperative for expanding humanitarian assistance as violence displaces three million Myanmarese and counting.
On Indonesia, the pod examines the odd willingness of hackers to unlock ransomed government data - supposedly for free. Also: a proposal for anti-dumping tariffs on consumer goods from China, Prabowo's leg surgery and the sinking of the Electoral Commission (KPU) to yet another new low.
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Thai politics and contingencies across its Myanmar border are among the topics discussed in our latest podcast with Kasit Piromya, a longstanding activist with ASEAN Parliamentarians for Human Rights (APHR) and a former foreign minister of Thailand. Khun Kasit has also served as Thailand's ambassador to over half-a-dozen countries, including the US, Germany, Japan and Russia. He provides an update on the search for political consensus in Thailand and the implications for Thailand's stance on the ongoing Myanmar crisis. He anticipates scenarios and issues a call for Indonesia to heed. Also in this episode: Erin and Kevin discuss the political divide in Manila, the election maneuvering in Jakarta, and a Prabowo media overture in America.
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The health consequences of suspended particles in Jakarta's air -- and safeguards applicable indoors -- come under scrutiny in this episode's interview with Piotr Jakubowski of Nafas, a provider of indoor air-quality monitoring and purifying. Piotr explains the terms, trends and dynamics of air pollution -- while disclosing the results of an air test done in a quintessentially smokey Senopati bar. Also: Kevin and Erin delve into the workings of Jakarta's gubernatorial election, cases embroiling Megawati's top lieutenant and signs of complications arising in the Nusantara Capital (IKN) project.
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The Reformasi Dispatch podcast delves into turbulence in Thai politics with the director of the Regional Centre for Human Rights Studies at Isan's Ubon Ratchathani University. Amid charges against Thaksin, a move to dissolve Move Forward and hunger strikes by political prisoners, Titipon estimates what might lie ahead, proximately and longer term. And in Indonesian politics, Erin and Kevin review cabinet rumors and new policies on halal import certification and coal-mining licenses for religious organizations - as well as how the president and president-elect still remain 'in sync'.
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Imminent excavation to divert part of the Mekong through Cambodia has alarmed Vietnam. Is this a Chinese‑supported stratagem to use water a geo-political leverage? Also, Erin and Kevin discuss high-stakes political wrangling over shipping containers detained at Jakarta's Tanjung Priok port, and the rolling out of Wolbachia-treated Aedes Aegypti to combat dengue fever. And finally, what Elon Musk can - and can not - offer Indonesia.
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Indonesia's parliament has returned to session and a flurry of bills reveals plenty about the designs of the allied outgoing and incoming presidents. Among them, a 4th bill on a key judicial entity. Also: Erin and Kevin discuss Singapore's change of government and the tragic passing of a Thai hunger striker.
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Reformasi Dispatch conferred with Angus Mackintosh, an independent research analyst from SmartKarma and CrossAsean, on how innovation is unfolding in Indonesia. Despite low research levels and an uncertain investment climate, artificial intelligence (AI) can close skill gaps and thereby help unlock Indonesia's long‑latent potential. Erin, Kevin and Angus consider examples of ventures leading the process, along with the US$1.7 billion AI investment plan of Microsoft -- which would include infrastructure as well as one-month AI training courses for 840,000 participants over four years. However, will the next administration regard foreign artificial intelligence as just another form of foreign intelligence?
Read Erin's newsletter Dari Mulut Ke Mulut here: https://darimulut.beehiiv.com/
Prospects for foreign policy, domestic politics and democratization feature in our talk with the distinguished analyst and former advisor to President Habibie and Vice President Boediono, Professor Dewi Fortuna Anwar of the National Research and Innovation Agency (Brin). She extends the 'benefit of the doubt' -- or doubts -- but also highlights risks and concerns. Also: Erin and Kevin discuss the latest, including a major investment pledge by Microsoft for AI tech, talk about expanding coordinating minister posts and the maneuvering ahead of major gubernatorial races in November.
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To assess the post-election process and anticipate what lies ahead, The head of Michigan University's Center for Emerging Democracies joins Reformasi Dispatch to discuss his new article in the Journal of Democracy. Are expectations of "continuity" valid? Is the electorate prepared for how President‑Elect Prabowo will govern? Professor Slater also touches on trends in Hun Sen's Cambodia. Also: Erin and Kevin discuss PDI‑P's reaction to the Constitutional Court's rejection of electoral disputes, and how the AGO's targeting of an alleged mafia kingpin could prove particularly portentous.
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Medan Mayor Bobby Nasution is seeking to run for governor of Indonesia's fourth-largest province and his father-in-law Joko Widodo appears keen to help -- Reformasi Dispatch examines why. Also: With Lawrence Wong designated as Singapore's next prime minister, the city-state is embarking on a new era - but it might still bear close resemblance to the old... Finally, Erin and Kevin discuss the twin impacts of a higher oil price and a weaker exchange rate on the fiscal outlook and fuel prices.
Amid electoral disputes unfolding in the Constitutional Court, President-Elect Prabowo Subianto abruptly appeared in Beijing, hosted by Xi Jinping. Kevin and Erin Cook break down the significance and note that Prabowo sought to convey balance by also visiting Tokyo and Kuala Lumpur. Also: how the new Jakarta Law exceeds expectations by making fewer changes than anticipated, and a check on developments in another Constitutional Court, in Bangkok.
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Indonesia's national election vote‑count concluded relatively smoothly, with the Widodo family's PSI falling well short of inclusion in parliament while the Soeharto-era ruling party Golkar expanded its vote share at PDI‑Perjuangan's expense. Jeff and Kevin break down the implications and outlook. Also: an all-too predictable kerfuffle on new Customs restrictions for arriving travellers and some thoughts on a portentous WTO ruling on palm-derived biodiesel.
Reformasi Dispatch takes a closer look at the vote-count process unfolding, with help from a foremost civil-society figure, Khoirunnisa ('Ninis') Nur Agustyati of Perludem. We discuss the technical drawbacks affecting the online 'SiRekap' display of the Election Commission (KPU) and whether commissioners acted judiciously in taking down the display on 5 March. Ninis explains the significance of C-Form tabulations from ballot stations and possible explanations for some to still remain missing. Also: Jeff and Kevin discuss the state of the formal censure proposal in parliament and the estimated seat breakdown for the next parliament and Jakarta assembly (DPRD).
Indonesia's election authorities took down the 'SiRekap' online display of the vote count -- just after an improbable leap in the count for PSI, the party of the president's younger son. Erin Cook of Dari Mulut ke Mulut steps in as co-host with Kevin to discuss the legislative‑election tallying, whether Jakarta's November gubernatorial contest will feature direct voting and to what extent parallels are discernible with politics in the Philippines. Plus: weighing in on Taylor Swift and getting Steven to unmute.
A recent presidential fashion statement -- a bright yellow necktie -- triggered anticipation that he may harbor designs on a takeover of Golkar, the Soeharto-era ruling party that will likely remain second-largest in the next parliament. Insider sources cited by Tempo magazine corroborated this indication of this maneuvering via sartorial elegance. But a Golkar takeover next December would be no simple task, even for the powerful Joko Widodo -- and it might conflict with the interests of Prabowo Subianto. Also: Jeff and Kevin discuss Prabowo's Free Lunch program and its costs, along with a possible parliamentary process to censure the government for wayward handling of the election process.
Nickel smelter air pollution, and the cost on the economy and public health, is the focus of substantive research in a new 100-page report from Crea and Celios. Crea analyst Katherine Hassan discusses the findings, methodology, and implications -- including the possibility of much of Eastern Indonesia eventually becoming a highly polluted and impoverished zone. At issue is whether regulatory enforcement will address options for cleaner nickel processing technology, smokestack scrubbing and deployment of renewable energy.
Given the unmatched attributes of Indonesia's nickel resources and the imperative for transitioning to EV fleets worldwide, nickel‑industry externalities take on global significance. Also: Jeff and Kevin discuss how the new parliament may shake out and what a limited cabinet reshuffle signals about post-election politics.
To read Celios x CREA's report on nickel downstreaming industry, go to https://energyandcleanair.org/publication/debunking-the-value-added-myth-in-nickel-downstream-industry/
Pollster Seth Soderborg joins for our post election wrap up as Indonesians overwhelmingly cast ballots in the first round for Prabowo Subianto who syphoned support from Joko Widodo's fellow party member, Ganjar Pranowo. Now Ganjar's party, the Indonesia Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) must decide whether to join a governing coalition or reprise its role as parliamentary opposition. That's something its chair, Megawati Sukarnoputri may relish more than her cadres who may have developed a taste for power over the past decade under Widodo.
Also Wahyu Dyatmika, CEO of Info Media Digital, the digital arm of Tempo Media Group joins after the break to talk about ongoing harassment of reporters and cyber attacks during the campaign, driving up the risks and costs to media companies which seek to hold the powerful to account.
The Prabowo-Gibran ticket has succeeded in portraying the 14 February national election as, in effect, a referendum on Widodo-ism -- with themselves on the overwhelmingly popular side promising "continuity". But will it instead, unbeknownst to many, actually prove to be a referendum on democracy? Jeff and Kevin discuss new polling data and the impact (if any) of some livelier public discourse in the final days approaching balloting. We expect a comfortable first-round majority for Prabowo. Also: a look at the legislative elections, the election-day Quick Count methodology, and some consideration of post-election policymaking.
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In this special episode, we talk to Andreas Harsono, a veteran reporter and rights advocate writing for the NGO Human Rights Watch.
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In the final days of campaigning, Prabowo has benefited from joint appearances with the popular president, but prospects for a one-round win are nonetheless questionable. The professional public-opinion research analyst Seth Soderberg joins the pod to delve into the dynamics and assess probabilities. Also: Jeff and Kevin examine cabinet resignation rumors and review the final presidential candidate debate.
As the presidential campaign enters the home stretch, President Widodo may weigh whether to overtly endorse Prabowo, which would indelibly tie him to Prabowo's fortunes. Joint public appearances have been sustaining Prabowo's momentum, but prospects for a first-round majority are not yet fully assured. Also: Jeff and Kevin discuss the politics of rice and food aid as the Widodo administration fends off a spike in the price of the key commodity just days ahead of the balloting.
NetGrit founder Hadar Gumay explains the mechanics of the 14 February election process - from the voter list to the official count, and all the balloting procedures and monitoring systems in between. Given his experience, this is tantamount to having the workings of a car engine explained by Henry Ford. He cites the complexities, including Papua's communal noken voting, but notes the remarkable organizational successes of past elections. Nonetheless, the upcoming process is not without cause for concern. Also: Jeff and Kevin discuss Gibran Rakabuming's latest debate (a bit odd), a Foreign Corrupt Practices (FCPA) case, whether PDI-P is re-unifying and prospects for cabinet departures -- perhaps including the iconic finance minister, Sri Mulyani Indrawati.
To download Netgrit's Jaga Suara App on Google Playstore, click here: Jaga Suara 2024
As we gear up for an election year we are turning to our donors but this time we are giving back! As a token of our gratitude for your US$20 donation we are making available exclusive content, starting with a special podcast episode recapping the fourth presidential debate. Kevin and Jeff offer up analysis of who had a good night and who fell short. Donors will get insight into whether Indonesia’s fifth presidential election will go to a runoff in June. And if it does which candidate will make the cut. We also discuss how has the Indonesian electorate changed since 2019 and how the candidates must pivot to reflect young voters who who don’t remember life before the country’s transition to democracy and yet crave a cleaner environment and better jobs and higher quality of life. To donate and download your exclusive content, follow the links in the show notes. And thank-you.
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Should Gerindra Chair Prabowo Subianto be thankful that President Widodo has provided vital backing? Or should the president be grateful that Prabowo has provided a lifeline? How these two regard one another may shape Indonesia's political outlook for some time. For 'Perth-spective,' we turn to Murdoch University's Indo-Pacific Research Center and its senior fellow Ian Wilson, who is actually currently at Singapore's ISEAS. Prof Wilson recounts Prabowo's past campaigning and Widodo's own political forays in recent years to assess the logicality of campaign ads about 'continuity'. Also: Jeff and Kevin touch on poll data and the effects of debates on the campaign.
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Four friends of the pod chime in on how they see 2024 unfolding: human rights analyst Andreas Harsono, renewables expert Fabby Tumiwa, environmental scientist Katherine Hassan and Eurasia Group Southeast Asia Director Peter Mumford. At the start of the new year, they outline the opportunities and stakes in their respective fields, touch on elections, the economy, energy and sustainability. Jeff and Kevin add their own musings and recap poll findings and developments ahead of the 14 February first-round presidential contest.
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How resilient are the independent democratic institutions in Indonesia's current election process? A chief monitor of electoral agencies, Khoirunissa of the pro-democracy NGO Perludem, examines campaign finance issues, enforcement of rules on gender equality and preparations for conducting candidate debates. She also takes note of changing roles for key institutions that civil-society organizations (CSOs) had in the past supported as champions -- and points out that CSOs must now remain "alert." Also in this episode: Jeff and Kevin discuss latest poll data and Ganjar's prolonged struggle to delineate an electoral position.
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Human rights and the rule-of-law received rare scrutiny in a well-conducted first debate. Awkward moments occurred for Prabowo Subianto, but new polling shows him very well cushioned. Also discussed: a bill to end Jakarta governor elections, with bewilderingly broad support; and ministers narrowly avert (for now) a broad-backed effort to boost Anwar Usman and perhaps restore him as Constitutional Court chief justice. And in memoriam: the passing of Southeast Asia's longest-serving foreign correspondent, John McBeth, dearly departed at age 79.
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Gibran Rakabuming's VP nomination triggered a poll swing. Author and Chatham House Asia-Pacific Director Ben Bland joins the pod to lend perspective. Also: Ganjar's remarks on reformasi and President Widodo's fireside chat with Joe Biden.
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After a verdict favoring the president's son, the president's brother-in-law lost his post as Constitutional Court chief justice for having egregiously violated ethics. To examine the details of the Ethics Panel ruling, Reformasi Dispatch consulted Bivitri Susanti, a prominent constitutional law expert with Jentera University. The ruling cites Anwar Usman for failing to recuse, mishandling administration and, most brazenly, miscategorizing two of the court's nine opinions -- thereby converting a 6-3 ruling against into a 5-4 ruling in favor. Bivitri discusses what might now ensue through a new case, #141, and the implications for the General Election Commission (KPU) and the presidential ticket of Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabuming.
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Megawati visted her father's mausoleum in Blitar and, perhaps having drawn inspiration, permitted party officials immediately thereafter to uncork zingers aimed at Gibran and Prabowo -- whom Djarot Hidayat now calls the 'Neo New Order'. Jeff and Kevin discuss the implications for the election - both legislative and presidential.
Also, background for the forthcoming Ethics Panel decision on Constitutional Court Chief Justice Anwar Usman and its implications -- as well as observations from Steven ('Unmuted') Handoko on his visit to the Support Palestine Rally addressed by Anies Baswedan.
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A series of constitutional court decisions last week regarding age requirements for presidential and vice presidential candidates have carved out a loophole seemingly tailor made for President Joko Widodo's eldest son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the mayor of Solo. Anyone seeking the highest or second highest office in the land must be 40 years old, according to a 2017 law. The court last week said the minimum age does not apply to anyone who has been elected to public office. As a result Rakabuming, 36, registered as vice presidential candidate alongside Prabowo Subianto last week. Kevin and Jeff discuss the backlash among civil society.
The chief justice of the court is President Widodo's brother in law his ruling coming just days before the deadline to register explicitly favours his nephew. Kevin argues there is real concern whether Indonesia's two decade long experiment with democracy may have run its course. Seth Soderborg joins Jeff in the second half of the show to argue that Rakabuming's role as VP candidate is to give Widodo sway in the Prabowo campaign as the defence minister and two time former candidate attempts to shed his image as a conservative firebrand and tap into Widodo's base of religious moderates. At this stage, the election appears to be Prabowo's to lose. Only question is will Indonesia's voters play along?
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200 civil-society groups decried a re-writing of Indonesia's Election Law enabling the president's son to stand for vice presodent. Jeff and Kevin discuss the implications and why there is hesitation about a Prabowo-Rakabuming ticket. Also: Ganjar chooses Mahfud and police pursue the KPK.
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Agricultural exports have been in focus and the podcast enlists an expert on sustainability science to share his experiences across the archipegalo wth cultivators of coffee, cocoa, palm oil and rubber. He addresses opportunities afforded by the controversial EU Deforestation Regulation and longer-term implications of rising temperatures. Also: Jeff and Kevin cover recent campaigning as well as the outlook for politics ahead of a momentous Constitutional Court ruling on VP nominee age limits. Plus, implications of the Hamas‑Israel conflict for Indonesia's foreign relations.
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Live from Jakarta! Dr Thomas Loidl, Austria’s ambassador to Indonesia joins the pod as Reformasi Dispatch records its 100th episode in front of a capacity audience at the Austrian Embassy. Kevin and Jeff talk with Ambassador Loidl about why Indonesia’s elections matter, the threat of disinformation. Kevin sets the stage for Pemilu 2024. And a pop quiz uncovers a shocking lack of familiarity with the Sound of Music among embassy staff. All this plus audience Q&A!
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BBC's veteran Southeast correspondent joins Reformasi Dispatch to assess how Asean is coping with super‑power rivalry in a 'post‑globalization' framework. The answer (spoiler alert): could be better. Jonathan contributes his perspective on conditions in Myanmar and the importance of Indonesia's diplomatic efforts via Asean; he also touches on EVs in SE Asia. Also in the episode: Jeff and Kevin cover some sudden shifts in Indonesia's presidential nominating alliances and the VP sweepstake maneuvers.
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Indonesia's foreign policy is even freer and more active than usual, as President Joko Widodo
negotiates the G20, Asean, IPEF, Aukus, the OECD, Brics and other acronyms. On the eve of Asean's Jakarta Summit and in the wake of Widodo's address to Brics, the pod consults foreign policy expert Dewi Fortuna (of the Habibie Center and the National Research and Innovation Agency or 'Brin') who sets forth her "Hedging Plus" description of Indonesia's approach. Also: Jeff and Kevin discuss Ganjar's partial polling recovery and his recent campaign-trail performance.
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The Indonesia analyst for the Helsinki-based NGO Crea joins the Reformasi Dispatch podcast to cut through the haze concerning the world's worst smog. We examine SO2, NOx and 2.5ug particulates in Jakarta's 'airshed' and consider the urgency of revamping regulations on coal. While the issue pits coal-related interests against considerations of public health -- and official pronouncements tend to defend coal while faulting the transportation sector -- we ask where policymakers' priorities actually lie. Also in this episode: Ganjar catches up in polls and Golkar's former chair wins early release from prison.
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Earlier this month Indonesia government data showed the country’s GDP grew at an annualized rate of 5.2 per cent during the three months to June 30. It’s a rate of growth that would be the envy of most big economies not least because it has so far avoided triggering rapid price inflation while paralleling an overall improvement in government services.
The state of the economy has helped support a generally sunny outlook among Indonesia’s voters and their favorable views of their outgoing president, Joko Widodo, who is enjoying stratospheric approval ratings as a result. Widodo’s support is so robust that a nod from him to one of the three likely contenders vying to replace him may go a long way toward securing the top job. But it’s a not an episode of Reformasi Dispatch without a healthy dose of skepticism and this case is no different. Investment ought to be playing a much bigger role in driving Indonesia's growth. And while 5.2% is nice, GDP really should be growing at something closer to 7 per cent -- unseen in post Suharto-era Indonesia -- to soak up surplus labour and boost wages.
Joining Jeff and Kevin is Angus Mackintosh, founder of CrossASEAN Research and Insight Provider on Smartkarma. We recorded our interview on Wednesday Aug 16th. Flight cancellations and the Independence Day holidays wreaked havoc with our production schedule last week. We’ll be back with a full episode on Friday August 25th.
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A cap-and-trade scheme to encourage emissions reductions is imminent, with application for the power sector as well as avoided deforestation. Jeff welcomes back Bill Sullivan from Christian Teo & Partners to talk about new regulations paving the way towards carbon exchange next month. While small and likely restricted to the domestic market, Indonesia stands out among its neighbours for venturing into the market for carbon trading and offsets, with all the first-mover advantages that the move may bring.
Also: a Gibran Run? Jeff and Kevin discuss the elite gravitation towards a Prabowo-Rakabuming ticket, including pressure on the Golkar chair -- and how Ganjar could potentially respond.
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Jeff, Kevin and Steven talk with the Special Rapporteur for the UN on Myanmar about the country's worsening crisis and what levers ASEAN can use to further its Five Point Consensus. Also: Airlangga Hartarto faces 12 hours of scrutiny from the Attorney General’s Office while facing a rift in his own Golkar party; yet more intrigue affects Pertamina; and Foreign Minister Marsudi in the recent Asean ministers' summit.
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Kevin and Jeff speak with the human rights activist and high profile lawyer on unfinished business criminal justice reform under the Widodo presidency, his defense of Time Magazine and the Bali Nine, and prospects for governance reform under a Prabowo presidency about which he’s surprisingly open-minded.
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We consult the Teneo SE Asia expert Bob Herrera Lim on the intricacies of what may be a watershed juncture in the politics of Thailand. Also: breaking down Prabowo's Najwa Shihab interview and re-assessing prospects for the indictment of Anies Baswedan.
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The leadership of Indonesia’s governing party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) indicates a rapprochement between their respective leaders Megawati Sukarnoputri and Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, ending their yearlong estrangement and potentially upending President Joko Widodo’s governing parliamentary coalition.
PDIP elites resent Widodo’s reluctance to distance himself with his two time rival and presidential candidate, Prabowo Subianto. Also in the episode: the government readies a bevy of five- to- 10 year “golden visas” aimed at attracting highly skilled workers, retirees, individuals with globally recognized talent a digital nomads.
And Steven joins Kevin and Jeff to discuss Jakarta’s interim governor’s ambition to begin construction of the capital’s seawall.
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The long-awaited ban on exports of raw bauxite ore is in place and Reformasi Dispatch turns to an expert on resource‑sector regulations to examine the drivers of policymaking -- including stark variations that differentiate assorted minerals such as nickel, bauxite, copper and tin. Also: a review of the start of Minister Luhut Panjaitan's defamation proceedings against two prominent human rights activists; and a look at one of the world's most prominent Indonesians, the 17‑year singer-songwriter Ariani Putri.
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The Constitutional Court appears poised to hand down a ruling that would give Megawati Sukarnoputri, chair of the ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) the power to hand-pick party members to sit in parliament following legislative elections. As the head of the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK), Firli Bahuri, seemingly bent on pressing corruptions charges against former Jakarta governor and presidential candidate Anies Basewdan, President Joko Widodo was compelled to say he would do nothing to “tarnish democracy” — something that should go without saying. Also, Jeff and Kevin talk with Amilia Rosa, a veteran Bali reporter to talk about Bali Governor Wayan Koster’s latest populist gambit: a ban on climbing any of the island’s 22 mountains
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Indonesian constitutional justices saw fit to extend the tenure of Anti-Corruption Commission (KPK) members, while also considering a late-stage alteration of the legislative electoral system.
Also before the court: a request to lower the minimum age for a vice‑presidential nominee, which would allow Solo Mayor Gibran Rakabuming (the president's son) to be Prabowo Subianto's running mate. And the court's chief justice is Gibran's uncle... (Note: subsequent to the recording, the court critic Denny Indrayana, a former vice law minister, became the target of criminal charges of defamation and leaking state secrets.)
Later Jeff and Kevin discuss a setback to the clean energy transition: an imminent ministerial decree will end net-metering for rooftop solar installations, which will disincentivize residential homeowners from contributing clean energy to the grid.
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A veteran human rights expert joins the pod to reflect on press freedoms a quarter-century since Soeharto's fall. Andreas Harsono also provides an update on the Widodo administration's gesture to acknowledge 12 cases of past rights cases. Also: Jeff and Kevin assess Ganjar's initial campaign performances and messaging -- along with an abrupt move by the Prabowo camp to 'go negative' at an early stage. And finally: sudden rancor over the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) and the Bandung fast train's trial run.
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The former US ambassador to Indonesia and Myanmar joins Reformasi Dispatch to share his views -- compiled from a career devoted almost entirely to diplomacy throughout the Asean region. Ambassador Marciel's book uses a wealth of personal vignettes to highlight over-arching themes such as democratization, institution-building, and engaging with the region on its merits -- rather than as a foil to China. Jeff and Kevin ask the ambassador about legal-system institutions, Indonesian democracy, conditions in Myanmar, and the tools available to US diplomats in SE Asia.
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We turn to an expert for an update on polling methodologies and what the numbers say thus far about where the candidates stand. After gyrations during April, we ask the Harvard Ph.D. candidate Seth Soderberg about the constituencies, strategies and dynamics that could prove decisive in the months ahead. Also, Kevin and Jeff recap the ill-fated 'Grand Alliance' and discuss how Anies Baswedan is elevating respect for democratic norms as a potentially powerful campaign theme.
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After nearly 20 years, a bill to help protect maids and household servants from exploitation finally appears poised to pass into law. A longstanding proponent, former parliamentarian Eva Sundari, joins the pod to explain the bill's features, which she describes as moderate and modest. A central feature will be a registration system to help track workers' whereabouts and guard against involuntary servitude.
In addition, Jeff and Kevin review the ongoing whirlwind of party politicking, including options for parties of the United Alliance (KIB). Also: an update on Jakarta's long-awaited Light Rail Train (LRT) due to commence operations in July.
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This is the full interview with Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo on June 2021 in Indonesian.
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In the wake of the decision on the part of Megawati Sukarnoputri, the chair of the ruling PDIP party, to nominate Ganjar Pranowo, Central Java's governor, for president we thought we would replay our June 2021 interview with Ganjar in which he outlines his views on improving human capital, protecting the environment, and concern at the time that the KPK's inclusion into the civil service under the auspices of retired police generals would mean the graft watchdog would pose little threat. The interview is also one of very few direct conversations the governor has had with media in recent years as Ganjar carefully managed public comments to avoid drawing the ire of his party's chair. We are also making available the full interview in Bahasa Indonesia. Enjoy. We're back with all new episodes on May 5.
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Ganjar Gets Go-Ahead (with Erry Hardjapamekas): The long waiting game with Megawati has ended as the PDI-P chair moved on 21 April 2023 to announce her intention to endorse the governor for president. This improves Indonesia's political outlook; it also renders parties of the erstwhile United Alliance (KIB) adrift and triggers rampant speculation about vice-presidential running mates. Jeff and Kevin discuss some scenarios ahead. Also: a KPK founder joins the pod to discuss the commission's leadership, independence and potential dangers to democratization. And finally: how the Jakarta-Bandung Fast Train may rankle bilateral relations with China for some time.
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10 months to the day before next year's momentous election, Indonesia's electoral process is plodding through a veritable gauntlet of meddling. This includes spurious procedural disputes, unscrupulous legal attacks and a late-stage attempt to revise rules. And the once-independent Anti-Corruption Commission (KPK) is at issue: an editorial in Tempo, once a staunch KPK defender, asserts that the commission is now an instrument of abuse. Machinations seemingly aim to indict Anies Baswedan regarding funding for a Formula-E grand prix -- but a weak charge against a presidential contender would likely call the election's legitimacy into question.
Jeff and Kevin discuss the rapidly evolving state of play -- and assess the assertion of Jakarta's rumor mill that Megawati has finally decided to imminently endorse Central Java Gov Ganjar Pranowo as the presidential nominee of PDI‑Perjuangan. Did the decision come about at considerable cost to Ganjar's support among football fans? Indonesia lost its right to host the Under-20 football World Cup amid calls from Ganjar and others to ban the Israel team. And finally, a look at the timeline for when the bulk of Indonesia's parties might finalize their presidential nominations. Did we mention there are only 10 months to the elections? Enjoy the show.
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International scrutiny of the processes that produce batteries for electric vehicles (EVs) is inevitable -- and already beginning. The author of a recent Wired article on the topic joins the pod. Also: Jeff and Kevin discuss the implications of a potential attempt by the chair of the Anti-Corruption Commission (KPK) to name former Jakarta Gov Anies Baswedan as a suspect, and a clear-cut case of a tourist-on-tourist stalking exposes law-enforcement frailties.
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Steven and Jeff speak with Awan Puryadi, one of the lawyers in involved in a class action suit on behalf of 25 families of victims who had drank cough syrup laced with industrial grade solvents that are lethal for humans.
The families are seeking billions in compensation from pharmaceutical companies, distributors and the government for allowing the mass poisoning. The Pak Awan says the families want the government to devote resources toward long term care for those suffering debilitating injuries including organ failure and paralysis, which are permanent and an apology.
Kevin is off this week, the guys will be back next week with a full show. For now, here’s Pak Awan.
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Disgraced former police general Ferdy Sambo was found guilty and sentenced to death for ordering the death of his subordinate, Yosua Hutabarat. Four more defendants including his wife were also found guilty with three dealt lengthy sentences behind bars. Even so, after a slew of high level dismissals last year the appetite for reform of Indonesia's crusty criminal justice system is still a long way off.
Then, Jeff gets to segue neatly into Indonesia slump down Transparency International's Corruption Perception Index -- worst one-year fall since the dying days of Suharto. University of Michigan Professor Dan Slater joins Jeff and Kevin to discuss what Indonesian democracy can teach world and how efforts to criminalize critical speech and protest risk undermining the country's two decade transition from authoritarian rule.
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Tito Ambyo, who is wrapping up a PhD on Indonesian horror, a lecturer on journalism at Melbourne's RMIT and co-host of the podcast Talking Indonesia joins Jeff and Kevin to discuss whether Jokowi is setting the table to break with Ibu Mega.
We also get into the very real horror story of childhood stunting, and finally wheeling and dealing on the power grid that might make room for consumers who want to source electricity from renewable sources - scary stuff for coal fired power plants.
Later Tito talks to the guys about the enduring love of horror in Indonesian popular culture and how discussing the supernatural and the ghosts of women and ethnic minorities who are wronged in this life is a way of backing into the taboo and fraught topics like the rights of women, and the communist purges of the 1960s.
You can listen to Talking Indonesia here: https://open.spotify.com/show/6gwgrqZuYIw5gVaSjisQ1R?si=5juHLsamQmSgOD3iPvklbw
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Erin Cook, author of substack Dari Mulut ke Mulut, joins Jeff and Kevin to discuss the presidential horse race. With almost exactly a year to go to elections, the stage is set for the big coalitions to announce their standard bearers after Agus Yudhoyono of Partai Demokrat drops demands for VP nominee and endorsed Anies Baswedan.
Erin walks the guys through elections in Thailand and the impact of a corruption purge in Vietnam that has claimed some of the country's leadership including the president. After the break Jeff talks with Laode Syarif, executive director at the partnership for governance reform in Indonesia to discuss whether the KPU's independence is under threat by the palace to allow small, anti-Baswedan parties to run in local legislative elections next year.
Reformasi Dispatch listeners get 25% a one year subscription by visiting: darimulut.substack.com/reformasi and don't forget your two week free trial of Kevin's newsletter Reformasi Weekely: reformasi.info
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Ruby Kholifa of the Muslim Action Network (Aman) joins the pod to discuss campaigns against female genitalia mutilation (FGM) and other aspects of a recent landmark conference that she helped lead.
Also: Imam of the Mining Advocacy Network (Jatam) discusses his trip to Morowali and Jiangsu Delong's Gunbuster Nickel (GNI), site of recent deadly worker clash. And finally: Jeff and Kevin discuss prospects for a 'superticket' following recent political party developments.
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A landmark 2-hour address by the PDI‑Perjuangan chair -- to a red-clad audience of 3,000, including the president and half the cabinet -- made no mention whatsoever of Ganjar Pranowo, the PDI-P Central Java governor who leads presidential polls. Preparations may now be underway for his split from the party in order to join the United Alliance (KIB) -- a process that will likely be messy.
Also: unsettling claims from credible figures about administration pressure on the General Election Commission (KPU); and a remote Indonesian offshore gas project that at once affects interests from the UK, Russia, Vietnam and China.
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New poll data provides depicts the state of the presidential race and a World Bank report assesses economic reform. Jeff and Kevin discuss listener questions about a recent controversy surrounding foreign property interests in the Widi Islands and the state of the planned capital move. Also, hear from sound engineer Steven Handoko, whom we unmute (on purpose).
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After 60 years of trying, Indonesia finally has a new criminal code that standardizes sentencing, boosts legal certainty and updates penalties that were more in line with the Indonesia of the Dutch colonial era than that of the 21st century. But, as Anugrah Rizki Akbari, lecturer of Criminal Law at Universitas Indonesia told Kevin and Jeff, the passing of the criminal code is not the finish line, but rather the beginning of a three-year process of combing through decades of statutes from to bring them in line with the new code. While an improvement on the patchwork of laws that date back to the 1800s, the code is proving controversial.
Conservatives in parliament are on board because the new criminal code includes jail time for extra marital sex. The president and vice president can levy criminal charges for defamation. These provisions will need safeguards and must be followed up with robust training of Indonesia's vast police force and public prosecutors. On balance the new criminal code is a welcome development -- but in the wrong hands it could undermine Indonesian democracy, personal liberties and the country's standing in the world.
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Gerindra Chair Prabowo Subianto is showing ‘buyer’s remorse’. By all accounts the three time presidential hopeful is casting about for a running mate who can add vigor to his so far lackluster campaign. Polls show Prabowo – with near 100 percent name recognition – backsliding while Central Java Gov Ganjar Pranowo clearly leads in multiple credible surveys. National Awakening Party (PKB) Chair Muhaimin Iskandar is expecting the VP nomination but Prabowo is dragging his feet on setting up the inter-party secretariat that will help the coalition plan the 2024 presidential campaign. PKB is the unofficial political vehicle for Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) – the world’s biggest Islamic organization.
Alienating Iskandar puts at risk his sway with a vast constituency of moderate Muslim voters. Also on the pod: the barbaric practice of female genital mutilation (FGM) is finally in the news, largely due a government‑sanctioned Congress of Women Islamic Leaders. And Michael Smith, Northeast Asia correspondent for the Australian Financial Review joins to discuss the escalating protests against China’s Covid restrictions, the outlook for President Xi Jinping and a deteriorating investment case for an economy many considered the factory for the world.
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When it comes to transitioning to renewables and electrifying transport, Arsjad Rasjid, KADIN’s chairman, says the time of “talk, talk, talk” is over. Government and business need to work together to make power generation cleaner, to attract tens of billions in higher tech industries like electric vehicles as well as in information and communication technology. The wind is certainly at Indonesia’s back. FDI in machinery and metals is double what it was a year ago. At the G20 Indonesia secured US$20b in funding from G7 nations to retire coal fired plants (Indika Energy, Pak Arsjad’s own company will be among the first to benefit). But big economies including the US and the EU are introducing subsidies and quotas requiring big chunks of EV battery production to be based in those markets. Will retiring coal powered electricity just free up dirty coal for export. Indonesia wants to participate in the supply chains that churn out the next generation of EVs and batteries not just consume them. But will red tape hamstring it’s bid to escape the so called middle income trap? It’s a considerable list of agenda items for any organization, for Indonesia Inc there’s little time to waste.
Reaching the Summit: Indonesia has pulled off a well-run G20 summit with no boycotts during a -- to put it mildly -- difficult year. Peter Mumford of the Eurasia Group joins Kevin and Jeff to discuss all the summitry and what it means for Indonesia's standing in the world. And: Peter runs through the Malaysian election and considers why the electorate appears to be tuning out.
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A moment of jocular rapport between the president and Prabowo Subianto sent pundits spinning this week. It appeared, when quoted in print, to constitute an endorsement of the Gerindra chair -- but not so. The president remains unaligned ahead of the 2024 race, but his cryptic jest at least made clear that his endorsement will be a prize.
Also: Multiple credible polls now show Ganjar in sole possession of first place, by a statistically significant margin, and the United Alliance (KIB) is still his likely nominating vehicle. Finally: with Putin confirming his G20 absence, Ref Dispatch discusses what the summit means for Indonesia.
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The Holy Grail of electric-vehicle production is a nickel battery derived from a genuinely green process, from mining through hydrometallurgy to handling residual tailings. Indonesia holds the bulk of the world's nickel -- but its current and planned projects for refining ore into battery-grade material (or 'MHP') are anything but green. These use conventional high-pressure acid leaching (HPAL), which entails high costs, acidic gases, and vast tailings. Indonesia's current trajectory points to the exclusion of its battery material from key markets (EU, US, et al) where regulators and consumers will demand high standards. But at least one company, Altilium, offers something completely different: an economical way to process ore into MHP -- with over 95 percent acid recycling and zero leftover tailings. Paired with renewable energy, the prospect exists for carbon-neutral battery production. Could it work, at scale? In this episode of Reformasi Dispatch, Jakarta-based Altilium CEO and Monty Python aficionado Chris Gower responds to our (Spanish) inquisition.
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The state of the Anti-Corruption Commission (KPK), trends in the police and the atmosphere for discourse are factors affecting Indonesia's outlook for legal-system predictability and the rule of law -- which in turn drive development and democratization. Joining the pod to evaluate a tumult of trends is Prof. Laode Syarif, a distinguished former KPK member (2014-19) and the current executive head of the Partnership for Governance Reform, an NGO that has long played a crucial role in reform.
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A scheme to nominate President Joko Widodo for vice president, which is suddenly occupying headlines, would face multiple hurdles – legal, ethical, political and electoral. The idea may have arisen from the camp of Gerindra Chair Prabowo Subianto, but it has at least some currency with Widodo’s supporters. It therefore serves as an indicator that they may be losing heart in the prospects for nominating Widodo’s ally, Central Java Gov Ganjar Pranowo. In fact, Ganjar’s strong poll standing is still likely to attract sufficient party support for a nomination at some stage. ‘Widodo for VP’ reflects the establishment's eagerness to find a path to a friendly successor regime.
Also in this episode: prospects for police reform emanating from the 'Brigadir J' case revelations, and how a change in PPP's chair could boost outgoing Jakarta Gov Anies Baswedan.
Kevin and Jeff talk about President Joko Widodo’s decision to raise fuel prices and claw back some of the nearly 700 trillion rupiah in subsidies expected this year and how more price hikes may be in the offing. Said Iqbal of the Indonesian Trade Union Confederation warns of national strikes if the price hikes aren’t reversed. How Jokowi linked groups are beginning to campaign for Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo ahead of the 2024. And finally a brief discussion of grisly alleged murders and dismemberment by Indonesian military of Papuan civilians.
Indonesia’s Islamic firebrand suddenly won early release from prison. The founder of the banned Islamic Defenders Front (FPI) has repeatedly shook national politics -- but conditions have changed since his zenith in 2017 and Reformasi Dispatch discusses what might come next.
Also: A major step back on climate policy as the government indefinitely postponed its long-awaited tax on carbon; Jeff and Kevin discuss the overlap of political and industrial interests at stake. And the latest cooking-oil imbroglio.
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Kevin and Jeff talk with Harvard academic and pollster Seth Soderborg about the art and science of taking the temperature of the Indonesian electorate. It's a tough and expensive process. Use phones or online surveys and you risk missing huge chunks of the population with no regular access to the Internet. And respondents don't tend to like to express a definitive opinions, opting if possible for a middle-of-the-road answer.
Still, answer they do -- at length -- meaning that if you have the resources and time reputable opinion surveys can turn out surprisingly accurate data. As the country ramps up for the 2024 presidential contest survey respondents are expressing caution toward likely conservative candidates including Prabowo Subianto and Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan and increasing interest in Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo. A lot can happen between now and February 2024. One example? A similar time period ahead of the 2014 presidential elections found Joko Widodo only just preparing for his inauguration as Jakarta governor. The bottom line? Ganjar, Anies and Prabowo are likely contenders. But there is still a long way to go. Enjoy the show!
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President Joko Widodo's sudden plan to engage in personal diplomacy with Putin involves high stakes. Prospects for progress are daunting, but the trip marks a welcome foray by Indonesia's leader into international affairs. Ukraine's ambassador to Indonesia joins the pod to put the effort in context and help shed light on what is reasonable to anticipate.
Also: Megawati uncorks more vitriol aimed towards Ganjar, and all sides gear up for yet another tussle over an attempt to revise Indonesia's antiquated Criminal Code (KUHP).
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Indonesia's new and renewable energy bill includes provisions to support development of fossil fuels including coal bed methane and coal gasification. Also on the pod: Elite support solidifies for Ganjar, and a mini reshuffle.
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Former VP nominee Sandiaga Uno joins Reformasi Dispatch to discuss his portfolio as tourism minister at a crucial juncture for the sector. Jeff and Kevin examine the significance of Golkar's entrance into the 'United Indonesia Alliance' with Pan and PPP -- without any mention of Party Chair Airlangga Hartarto as its presidential contender. Also: the mysterious Acute Hepatis outbreak and how the Widodo administration will utilize its remarkable windfall from an across-the-board boom in exports (spoiler: fuel subsidies die hard).
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Kevin and Jeff interview Andy Yentriani, chairwoman of Indonesia's National Commission on Violence Against Women. Indonesia's landmark law on sexual crimes offers unprecendented protections against unwanted sexual advances and recriminations from alleged perpetrators. It has big shortcomings, too. Legislators have left treatment of rape for inclusion in a long-delayed revised criminal code. And enforcement will be left up to Indonesia's mostly male criminal justice system. But the new law is at last official recognition of Indonesia's yawning gender divide.
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Controlling domestic cooking-oil prices is President Widodo's reason for banning Indonesia's exports of palm oleins, which the world relies upon for food and cosmetics. Will the draconian measure actually work? If so, when? Global concerns about food inflation are at stake. Also on the pod: the Lowy Institute's Ben Bland discusses Indonesian attitudes toward democracy, international relations and world leaders, based on Lowy's new poll findings. Jeff and Kevin discuss the implications of Indonesia's first-quarter trade data and the start of the annual 'mudik' exodus from cities for Idul Fitri.
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In a breakthrough for social reform, the government and parliament outlawed assorted types of sexual abuse while introducing safeguards for victims. Jeff and Kevin discuss how this overdue law, despite some shortcomings, can now serve as a platform for sustained efforts to improve justice in practice.
Also, Eurasia Group analyst Peter Mumford joins the pod to review precarious economic conditions in certain neighboring Asian countries, with an assessment of effects on views of Indonesia.
Finally, Jeff and Kevin review the recent decision to divide Papua Province into four parts -- the history, current dynamics and prospects.
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Reformasi Dispatch discussed Indonesia's energy transition with Robert O. Blake, the former US ambassador to Indonesia and now a senior advisor to US Special Climate Envoy John Kerry. The US has identified Indonesia as a country with promising prospects for cooperation on climate action and Ambassador Blake recently concluded a high‑level visit to Jakarta on the topic. Decommissioning coal-fired power plants is a priority -- as is progress on regulatory reform to facilitate investment-grade projects for renewable energy.
Also: Jeff and Kevin discuss acrimony surrounding preparations for the Bali G20, as well as the president's latest stance on election postponement and some difficult fiscal choices ahead amid high energy prices.
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We are still on hiatus for this week. Meanwhile, we would like to introduce you to one of our best interview of the pod with Edward Tirtanata, founder of Kopi Kenangan.
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Indonesia's leading reformer met Reformasi Dispatch for an hour interview that appraised the economy's outlook amid extraordinary international conditions and heightening rhetoric about postponing elections. With regard to prolonging the administration's tenure, Sri Mulyani Indrawati made clear that no urgency supports election postponement, and "no one is indispensible."
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A foremost climate‑action advocate within the Jakarta diplomatic corps joins the pod to assess areas of opportunities and constraints in Indonesia's efforts towards sustainability. Ambassador Berg also discusses the war on Ukraine and notes that "Words matter".
In addition: Jeff and Kevin review the latest from Widodo administration officials keen on postponing elections, and assess Indonesia's prospects for being able to host a G20 Summit amid precipitous international tensions.
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This week's Reformasi Dispatch podcast examines the abrupt attempt by at least three pro‑Widodo parties, including Golkar, to prolong Widodo's presidency, ostensibly because an election would be detrimental. Widodo himself has remained silent on the matter, exacerbating damage to Indonesia's international image at a time when its presidency of the G20 should be enabling the country to burnish its democratic credentials. The podcast examines the potential for proponents of postponement to alter the Constitution and legitimize an extension of Widodo's term. Also: the impacts of the invasion of Ukraine on Indonesia's economy, and what China's ambivalence might mean for Asia. Finally, an interview with Yu Liuqing of the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) on the reasons for Indonesia's improved index score.
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This episode is also available in video form on Youtube. Watch here: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCV60-iGRODC7Jh3m2A76ODA
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With the nomination of presidential tickets barely 18 months away, image management is increasingly crucial for potential contenders -- especially Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo. Jeff and Kevin recount events last week in the hamlet of Wadas, Central Java, where police clashed with community members opposed to a quarry project -- entangling the governor in unseemly controversy.
Also: Indonesia prepares for a high‑profile international superbike race expected to draw 100,000 spectators to remote Mandalika, Central Lombok, next month. And the government faces opportunistic criticism for tightening domestic mobility restrictions while easing rules for incoming travelers.
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Over the next two years, fully half of all democratically elected regional heads across Indonesia will undergo replacement with interim appointees chosen by either the president or the home affairs minister. Reformasi Dispatch examines multiple sources of confusion that already afflict the process.
Also: Southeast Asia's first Holocaust Museum, in North Sulawesi, highlights an Indonesian Jewish community -- estimated to number perhaps 200 people -- that has shunned attention since the Surabaya Synagogue demolition nearly a decade ago. Jeff and Kevin also discuss the government's efforts to both grapple with the omicron wave while also preparing for the re-opening of tourism. And finally, how attempts to stage a Jakarta Formula-E race have been far from formulaic.
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The founder of Indonesia's newest unicorn, Kopi Kenangan, provides an account of one company's adjustment to economic changes through real-time data usage. Edward Tirtanata explains how the coffee purveyor expanded from humble origins a few years ago to 600 stores and counting -- while remaining profitable and cultivating a distinctive HR culture.
Also, Jeff and Kevin examine Indonesia's second clear case of modern slavery practices to emerge within the past decade: the use of forced labor and jail-like detention by the chief of Langkat District. Reformasi Dispatch looks at the implications for legal institutions in light of findings from research by civil society groups and the Witness Protection Agency (LPSK).
Other topics: a move toward finally reopening Bali to foreign arrivals, and a look at the 2024 election outlook following a firm date established by the General Election Commission (KPU): presidential balloting on Valentine's Day, 2024.
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The World Bank’s lead economist for Indonesia discusses poverty, growth, and tax reform with the Reformasi Dispatch podcast. Habib Rab delves into the impacts that threaten to constrain future growth and highlights the importance of social welfare interventions to mitigate trends in poverty. He also underscores the importance of competitiveness and a multi-pronged approach to enhancing tax collection.
Also: Jeff and Kevin discuss plans for resuming petrol subsidies and an overview of the swiftly passed National Capital Law.
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The Griffith University epidemiologist Dicky Budiman tells Reformasi Dispatch podcast that testing, tracing, and isolation matter more than ever -- and he assesses Sinovac's efficacy and the value of a Paxlovid shipment that arrived in Indonesia. Also: Jeff and Kevin look at the fallout from the coal export ban and Prabowo Subianto's latest double-edged political overture.
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Reformasi Dispatch speaks with Willy Aditya, a legislator heading the parliamentary working committee that appears to be on the verge of a breakthrough for a long-awaited Bill on Sexual Assault Crimes.
This is the unabridged interview conducted in Indonesian.
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Momentum is building for progress on addressing sexual violence against women, children and the disabled. Reformasi Dispatch speaks with Willy Aditya, a legislator heading the parliamentary working committee that appears to be on the verge of a breakthrough for a long-awaited Bill on Sexual Assault Crimes. Also: Widodo makes an assertive start to 2022 -- banning coal exports, cancelling mine permits and mandating a Land Bank Agency. Jeff and Kevin also discuss anticipation of another Covid case surge fuelled by omicron. Finally, a review of the final design for a new presidential palace.
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American Chamber of Commerce head Lin Neumann joins the podcast to discuss the impacts of the Constitutional Court's ruling on the landmark economic reform package of the Widodo administration, the 'Jobs Omnibus', and the outlook for investment. Also: new natural disasters test response efforts and Natuna Sea tensions escalate.
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The Eurasia Group’s South and Southeast Asia analyst joins Reformasi Dispatch to examine the preparations and reactions of regional governments to the emergence of the Omicron variant of Covid 19. Depending on scenarios for the new variant’s levels of transmission and mortality, Peter looks at the political and economic capacity of ASEAN countries to weather another potential wave of infections.
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Justices demanded corrections to the Omnibus Law on Job Creation - but Jeff and Kevin discuss how this may actually be a win for President Widodo and conditions for investment in manufacturing. Also: preparations for the inevitable arrival of the Omicron variant. And Murdoch University's Ian Wilson joins the pod to assess the state of the paramilitary-style gang Pemuda Pancasila in the wake of a violent altercation with police.
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This episode of the Reformasi Dispatch Podcast honors the departed Jakarta-based journalist Joe Cochrane, who covered Indonesia with inimitable style for over 20 years. Also: will fisheries reform flounder? And a roundup of key cabinet‑reshuffle scenarios and the energy minister’s latest pronouncements about transition from coal.
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Gecko Project investigators Margareth Aritonang and Tom Johnson join Reformasi Dispatch to detail Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto’s policy to clear forest for cassava plantations in Gunung Mas District, Central Kalimantan. The team examines the corporate structure, commercial aspects, potential conflicts of interest, and risks posed for Indonesia’s credibility on resource management. Also: Kevin and Jeff discuss a small step towards a Prabowo Puan ticket and the wealth disclosure form of newly designated Military Chief Gen Andika Perkasa.'
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Also, check out Gecko Project's investigation here: https://thegeckoproject.org/politically-connected-firm-seeks-to-profit-as-indonesian-government-cuts-down-orangutan-habitat-ab7b5a398c17
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Former Solo Mayor FX Hadi Rudyatmo, a confidante of the president, brazenly defied PDI¬-Perjuangan Chair Megawati and openly endorsed Central Java Gov Ganjar Pranowo for president. Will this finally bring the internal PDI-P impasse to an end and give impetus to nominating maneuvers? In any event, circumstances confer an advantage on Ganjar. Plus: the implications of state funding for the Indonesia-China Fast Train (KCIC) linking Jakarta and Bandung and Lt Gen (ret) Agus Widjojo prompts renewed discussion of the military’s proper role in civil life.
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CrossAsean equity analyst Angus Mackintosh rejoins Reformasi Dispatch to review Grab's IPO preparations, machinations among tech giants and digital trends in the Indonesian market (including an e-grocery boom). Jeff and Kevin have a look at three abrupt developments with positive implications: a continued dwindling of Covid case detections, a swiftly passed tax law, and poll momentum for Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, who achieved a virtual tie with the Defense Minister.
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Strategic rivalry finally engulfs ASEAN and Jakarta's policymakers must examine their choices. Joining the pod is the National University of Singapore scholar Evan Laksmana. Also: Jeff and Kevin discuss developments in three politically significant corruption cases, prospects for re-opening Bali, and acrimony between the administration and mainstream NGOs.
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Policymakers seem exceedingly slow to embrace the mounting advantages of photo-voltaic technology for Indonesia's pressing energy needs. The head of the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) details the compelling logic for supplanting coal with solar power. Also: the Aukus pact directly benefits Indonesia by helping ward off one-power hegemony. Plus: prospects for a limited cabinet reshuffle and a landmark verdict on air pollution control.
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The head of Indonesia’s premier institute on infectious disease joins the pod to explain the Merah Putih Vaccine program and discuss prospects for subsequent waves of infections. Covid related topics include clinical trials, boosters, genome sequencing work, and new variants. Also: Amnesty amnesia? Prone to confusion, new tax compliance initiatives could go awry. Jeff and Kevin also discuss the KPK’s latest litmus test and two legal system calamities: the penitentiary fire in Tangerang and the abuse of Ahmadiyah in Sintang. And finally, the Constitutional amendment initiative's denouement.
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HSBC’s regional economist for Asean joins the pod to look at how Indonesia can preserve confidence and restore fiscal prudence despite having extended its extraordinary debt financing through 2022. Apropos the matter, Jeff and Kevin review developments in parliament’s 2007 General Tax Law revision, which business interests are resisting. Also discussed: what the acquittal of the coal tycoon Samin Tan reveals about the state of anti-corruption efforts and the unprecedented machete attack on an Army outpost in the Bird’s Head Peninsula, just weeks prior to national games in Jayapura.
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.Also: Prof Noor Ismail on domestic terror networks. Also discussed: PAN joins Widodo's alliance and the first of a two-part segment on extraordinary debt financing or 'burden sharing'.
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A renewed push to open Pandora’s box of amendments – potentially scuppering direct presidential elections – narrowly failed, for now. Jeff and Kevin discuss the actors, aims, party stances, and ‘Trojan Horse’ stratagem. Also: an interview with Aim Sinpeng of the University of Sydney regarding methods that online hate speech perpetrators use to evade platform controls. Finally, a look at PDI-P’s latest posturing regarding the presidential election and a glimpse of prospects for rooftop solar arrays.
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Jeff and Kevin discuss the new Charta Politika poll showing the Central Java head ahead of both other major potential contenders for president in 2024. Ganjar Pranowo is the figure with momentum at present – as well as the most upside potential. Given his gubernatorial record and his earnest approach to reform, the trend bodes well at an early stage of the momentous election process. Also: the most notorious integrationist militia leader from East Timor receives a meritorious service medal from President Joko Widodo, outraging human rights NGOs. And domestic perceptions of coal as a mainstay of Indonesia’s energy resilience could shift – if producers continue prioritizing lucrative exports ahead of fixed-price sales to the State Power Company (PLN). Finally: how events in Afghanistan may affect views of the US in Asia.
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Margaret Barry, The Bali Children Foundation founder explains the struggles of schooling in disadvantaged communities amid the prolonged pandemic. Also: Jeff and Kevin discuss political machinations that persist despite the crisis conditions gripping the country.
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Breakthrough deaths underscore a need for Coronavac efficacy data. As cases tumble in Jakarta and western Java, most off Java provinces are spiking – Jeff and Kevin examine the trends. Also: how governors have fared politically and the latest maneuvers of Maharani and Moeldoko. And, a setback for geothermal energy? Finally, a look at encouraging FDI growth. Joining the pod from New Delhi is the India and Indonesia analyst from Apac Assistance, Anshika Singh, who helps assess how India’s experience with the Delta variant can be instructive for Indonesia.
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Jeff and Kevin conduct a 30-minute interview in English with the leader of West Java’s 50 million residents on 23 July. Gov Kamil provides a thorough overview of crisis conditions and describes measures to manage an acute shortage of healthcare personnel. Also, the provincial government’s initiatives to extend telemedicine, free vitamins and drugs and basic social assistance for the poor. The governor also touches on investment inflows and factory workforce management in West Java’s vast industrial sector.
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Case detections are declining on a moving-average basis in Jakarta and, more recently, nationwide. Jeff and Kevin discuss the trends and the restrictions outlook in light of a newly released study of antibody prevalence in Jakarta. Also: findings from the Survey Institute (LSI) regarding President Widodo’s approval rating and public perceptions about vaccination. Finally, CGM CIMB Securities Head of Indonesia Research Erwan Teguh joins the pod to assess economic conditions, shed light on the state of the banks and consider the impact of mobility curbs on the informal sector.
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Bob Herrera Lim, Southeast Asia risk analyst for the consultancy Teneo, places Indonesia’s precipitous, unabated case spike in a regional context. With the most vaccinated people per capita in the region (save Singapore), Indonesia poses a test for how well Sinovac’s Coronavac vaccine fares against the now predominant Delta variant. And while a public health crisis in Malaysia precipitated the downfall of a government, the same is hardly likely in Indonesia. Plus: Jeff and Kevin discuss the hot topic of credit-card usage among Pertamina directors and the tenuous role of Basuki Purnama ('Ahok') as the state oil company’s president commissioner.
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With Java in the grip of a long-dreaded case spike fuelled by the Delta variant, the government is attempting to impose the strictest curbs applied to date. Jeff and Kevin review the latest conditions and examine the implications. Also: a round-up of political and justice issues including a test of free speech, charges for a former minister, the Omnibus’s first court test and the Chamber of Commerce undergoes change.
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Several countries have higher daily caseloads, but Indonesia has the sharpest spike underway. Many delta-driven transmissions may be going undetected, especially with patients queuing for beds in hospitals on Java. Tighter restrictions take effect on 2 June, but should the president do more? Jeff and Kevin discuss the pandemic with the University of Indonesia Professor of Epidemiology Dr. Pandu Riono. He critiques cabinet decision-making and discusses the manning of makeshift emergency hospitals. Also: what case trends among fully vaccinated healthcare workers reveal about the ‘delta resilience’ of Coronavac.
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Simon Flint, The 1,000 Days Fund Co-Founder explains the causes and effects of below-par growth in under-fives – something that affects nearly one in three Indonesian children. He explores the role for NGOs in supporting the Widodo Administration’s high-profile anti-stunting campaign. Also: Jeff and Kevin discuss the case spike, the government’s assorted handling efforts, and implications for the economy – as well as the latest presidential poll data from Saiful Mujani Research (SMRC).
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Charlie McCann, The Economist’s regional correspondent covering Myanmar, illuminates conditions endured by the Burmese, prospects for change and the role played to date by neighbors including Indonesia. She details economic deterioration, civil disobedience, and trends in the conflict between a People’s Defense Force (PDF) and Gen Hlaing’s Tatmadaw. Certain distinctive traits of the military are key drivers of the grim dynamics.
Also: Jeff and Kevin discuss havoc in PDI Perjuangan’s leadership, mixed proposals on civil liberties, yet more amendment noise, and the emergence of the long-dreaded post-holiday Covid uptick.
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The province that arguably constitutes Indonesia's political heartland gave rise to the current president as well as a potential successor: Gov Ganjar Pranowo, who joins the podcast to delve into the management of his giant region - including the pandemic, welfare, investment, the environment, and governance. Also: Kevin and Jeff examine a failed waste-to-energy project and a grandiose defense procurement proposal.
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Our exclusive interview with the renowned anti-corruption investigator examines conditions within the independent commission and considers what might lie in store. Jeff and Kevin discuss President Widodo’s positioning on the dismantling of the KPK and how it affects operating conditions for investors. Also: a welcome Tax Amnesty clarification from the finance minister; energy planners embrace renewables, and surging trade trends bode well for growth.
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Robert Blake, the former US ambassador, enumerates factors that are slowing deforestation and examines prospects for US-Indonesia engagement on climate change. Also: Jeff and Kevin assess a portentous Ganjar-Puan rift, a bold tax initiative and an exceedingly complex gas-to-chemicals project.
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Heroic investigators handed non-jobs in personnel winnowing. Also: With nominating decisions just two years away, top provincial heads are clearly striving to elevate their nationwide profiles and boost their poll rankings. At stake is the fundamental direction of Indonesia's democratization. Also: healthcare preparations for anticipated post-holiday transmissions.
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A conversation with Michal Zrust, co-founder of Lestari Capital, about the Rimba Collective, which uses markets to drive verified ecological outcomes. Also: Kevin and Jeff on investment inflows, the GoTo merger, the unshuffled cabinet, and revitalizing Jakarta's Kota old town.
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Cross Asean's Angus Mackintosh examines the digitization of consumption and what capital markets trends portend for recovery. Also: a lost submarine, another Golkar scandal, bracing for a surge and a momentous summit on Myanmar.
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Tiza Mafira of the Climate Policy Initiative discusses her upcoming documentary and dedicated work on single-use packaging waste. Also: the mudik ban, an American vaccine-maker defies Indonesia's top regulator, the beleaguered Soehartos, a Wahid family comeback(?), and an overtly political new gun club.
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We interview Eurasia Group’s Peter Mumford to examine the web of linkages that might – or might not – affect outcomes in Myanmar. Also discussed: a look at The Quad from Indonesia’s standpoint. And Jeff and Kevin discuss Moeldoko’s failed gambit to take over Yudhoyono’s Partai Demokrat, another tragic church bombing, and Pertamina’s safety record.
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Author Ben Bland discusses paradoxical leadership and we examine the latest in politics. Also: China's signature project may face delay.
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Former Presidential Advisory Council Chair Sri Adiningsih of Gadjah Mada University joins the pod to examine trends and prospects for the economy in the wake of the pandemic and the Omnibus Job Creation Law. Also discussed: a forthcoming industry-minister decree would expand security-force protection services for industrial parks, many of which accommodate major investments funded by companies from China; this would appear to run counter to decades of best-practice lessons learned in Indonesia's resources sector. And, yet again, a political kerfuffle arises from a plan to augment rice stocks through imports.
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A move toward privatizations and a target date for one-stop permitting are the latest in a series of reforms that have come forth rapidly from the Widodo administration amid the pandemic – just as past reforms also occurred as responses to downturns. Also discussed: Moeldoko’s brazen move may be turning sour; and the Supreme Court’s administrator receives a six-year corruption sentence.
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The president's chief of staff has declared himself chair of the largest opposition party, on far-fetched claims of legitimacy. What does this do for politics? What is the end game? Also: Widodo quickly rolls back a reform; and an Interview with James Bryson on new territorial tax treatment for expatriates and how it will affect Indonesia's competitiveness as an investment destination.
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The investment climate hinges on legal certainty and service delivery, which in turn depends on merit-based incentives in the civil service. Kevin and Jeff discuss reform momentum with Prof Eko Prasojo, chair of the National Independent Team on Bureaucratic Reform. Also in this episode: a dramatic dismantling of the Negative Investment List (DNI); South Sulawesi's Gov in jeopardy; and Prabowo leads in a key new survey -- but Ganjar is in reach.
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In this episode: Indonesia’s Myanmar-Asean quandary; its new ‘Sovereign Wealth’ Fund; a clash over the Berkarya Party; and the new police chief’s directives for moderating the use of the draconian ITE Law. With interviews with Usman Hamid of Amnesty International Indonesia and Adhigama Budiman of the NGO Indonesia Criminal Justice Reform (ICJR).
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In this episode: Private vaccine program complicates rollout; Regulation on labor-market reform imminent; Widodo's poll rating sags; and an interview with Michael Sianipar, chair of the Jakarta Chapter of the Solidarity Party (PSI).
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Indonesia's Covid-19 cases dip as vaccine rollout begins; a setback for local elections; and an end to mandatory religious dress in schools -- for now. Plus, we speak with Andreas Harsono of Human Rights Watch.
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