Trading NRG: Recent Episodes
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Are there signs of recession in the air? At least the recent decline in oil prices may suggest so. The last time oil prices suffered from such falls was in early 2020 during the Covid crisis that escalated to a…
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The post The Oil-Stocks Ratio Dynamics – Making Sense of Opposing Directions first appeared on Trading NRG.
The FOMC relieved the markets by cutting rates by 50 bp, the first rate cut since the pandemic. The markets were mostly content with the dovish policy decision even though they were not initially too happy with the economic outlook,…
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The post Takeaways from the FOMC September meeting first appeared on Trading NRG.
The FOMC is expected to cut rates for the first time since the 2020 Covid-induced recession. This news has already been priced into the financial markets. The two main issues remain unclear and worth following: First, how much they will…
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The post What to expect from the Fed in its September meeting? first appeared on Trading NRG.
The recent NFP report came short of expectations, with 142k jobs added (expectations were for 164k). However, unemployment did not rise (at 4.2%), and wage growth ticked up to 0.4% — putting more stress on inflationary pressures. In short, this…
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The post Jobs fall short as recession talks still loom –What does it mean for the Fed? first appeared on Trading NRG.
As gold trades at $2,500, a record high, its path ahead faces challenges related to the upcoming FOMC meeting. Still, the balance of risks appears to support precious metal prices. Let’s examine the key factors that could influence its trajectory…
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The post Gold Shines Bright as Inflation Cools Down and Rates Fall first appeared on Trading NRG.
Following the Jackson Hole annual banking conference, FOMC chair Jay Powell has already stated what the market anticipated, that rate cuts are coming. How many cuts should we expect? At Jackson Hole, Powell stated that the Federal Reserve would do…
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The post What’s the Fed’s Next Move? first appeared on Trading NRG.
Gold continues to reach new highs, most recently passing $2,500. While many consider precious metal as a hedge against inflation, the main factors that keep gold shining are the prospect of falling interest rates, weaker USD, geopolitical unrest, and rising…
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The post Gold Breaks New Highs, What’s Next? first appeared on Trading NRG.
Following the FOMC decision to keep rates unchanged in its July meeting, the market reaction – a plunge in stock prices for a couple of days – may have surprised Fed chair Jay Powell. Despite the sudden sharp reaction, I…
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The post The FOMC Isn’t Moved by Recent Market Drama first appeared on Trading NRG.
When Bank of Japan’s Governor Kazuo Ueda announced a rate hike of 25 basis points last week, it is hard to believe he expected things would turn out the way they did: The Japanese yen appreciated by nearly 5% against…
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The post The Yen is Gaining Ground but the BOJ’s Interest Rate Path is in Question first appeared on Trading NRG.
The Federal Reserve convened this week for its last meeting in 2020. The Fed didn’t make any significant changes to its policy and provided accommodating forward guidance and some clarity on its asset purchase program. The Fed expects to purchase…
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The post Fed Relies on Forward Guidance – Keeps a “Wait and See” Message first appeared on Trading NRG.
Since the negative rates of April, the oil market has partly recovered and settled around $40. The ongoing high uncertainty over demand, along with the changes in production in non-OPEC and OPEC countries, haven’t moved oil from its $40 mark…
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The post Oil remains stable (for now) despite high uncertainty in the horizon first appeared on Trading NRG.
In a recent report, the IMF predicted Spain’s GDP could contract by 8% in 2020; the Bank of Spain estimates this year’s decline could reach 12.4% if the lockdown lasts 12 weeks (for now, the lockdown is expected to last…
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The post Spain’s Economic Woes Could Be Worse Than Currently Projected: Its GDP Could Fall by 20% This Year first appeared on Trading NRG.
Stocks continue rising and ignoring depressing news. The Federal Reserve is the primary driver. We explain what the Fed is doing, why it is not QE and what’s next for stocks. A quick history for Fed action: The Federal Reserve…
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The post Stocks rises are mostly Fed-fueled but this is not QE –MM #189 first appeared on Trading NRG.
After a hiatus, Lior Cohen and Yohay Elam return with a virtual tour around the world, kicking off in Germany and encompassing the globe. What’s next for Europe, the US, and the central bank policy? Germany in manufacturing recession: The…
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The post Is Europe dragging the global economy down? A virtual tour of the world — MM #188 first appeared on Trading NRG.
Unlike last year’s contentious FOMC meeting in December, this year’s rate decision was uneventful, as the Federal Reserve kept rates, as markets expected, unchanged. Looking forward, the Fed’s dot plot points towards no change in interest rates in 2020 and…
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The post Powell Maintains A Dovish Stance, As The Fed Remains In The Sidelines first appeared on Trading NRG.
The Federal Reserve, as expected, lowered interest rates by 25bp to a range of 2% to 2.25%. One thing is emerging from Jay Powell, Fed’s Chair, and his way of conducting monetary policy – he doesn’t like to surprise the…
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The post The Donald Vs. Powell – When the Federal Reserve Is Politicized, Markets Worry first appeared on Trading NRG.
The Federal Reserve recent monetary policy meeting ended, as expected, with no rate cuts, but it moved a bit towards considering lowering rates. Despite the dovish rhetoric from Chair Jerome Powell, the Fed’s signal to lower rates in the dot…
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The post The Fed Keeps The Market Hoping For a Rate Cut That Might Not Arrive Soon first appeared on Trading NRG.
The inversion of the yield curve has raised concerns in the media over the possibility of a recession in the next 12 to 18 months. Considering the inversion has been a reliable indicator during the past 40 years, it could…
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The post Will The Yield Curve Inversion Predict The Next Recession? first appeared on Trading NRG.
The recent election in Spain (April 28) ended with three significant changes: The Socialist party (PSOE) was able to receive 122 seats (out of 350) – the most in 11 years. It won’t be enough for Pedro Sánchez to form…
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The post Vox’s Ascension In Spain Is Mainly about Immigration first appeared on Trading NRG.