JSEDirect with Simon Brown: Recent Episodes

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Weekly roundup of what's happening on the JSE in South Africa hosted by Simon Brown. Focusing on stocks outside the Top40 index it includes; company results, updates, market moves, week ahead, trading tips/products and book reviews.

Mr Price and Clicks have both been hammered, and on a chart they look like the same trade. They are not.

Simon Brown holds both and spends this episode pulling the two businesses apart to work out which one he actually wants to own. Clicks is on its cheapest P/E in a decade but is losing share in the high-margin categories that pay the bills, with Dis-Chem, Checkers Sixty60, SPAR Health and Woolworths all circling. Mr Price is on 12.2 times earnings with a 5.3% dividend yield and a German acquisition the market has already priced as a failure.

Also covered: US earnings season running at 47% growth, why the South African consumer squeeze is worst at the top end, and Saudi Aramco's warning that rebuilding oil inventories could take 18 months.

WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.

Vodacom has cut its dividend payout ratio from 75% to 65%, which pushes one of the JSE's dependable income names down the list. Simon Brown runs the Top 40 and the mid-cap screen to find where quality local yield actually sits, and shows how Growthpoint, Nedbank, Coronation and Standard Bank can be combined into a home-built income portfolio yielding roughly seven and a half to eight percent, growing ahead of inflation. He also unpacks Alphabet's record quarter, where two thirds of the profit was unrealised paper gains and free cash flow turned negative for the first time on record, and asks how any investor values Tesla when the CEO has promised self-driving cars every year for a decade.

Topics: Alphabet results, AI capex, circular AI revenue, Vodacom dividend policy, JSE dividend yields, income ETFs, Tesla valuation, Elon Musk, Bid Corp, Clicks, Absa.

WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.

Can you find a real edge in prediction markets? Simon hunts the arbitrage — and calls Netflix cheap.

In this week's WorldWideMarkets: • 🎲 Prediction markets: where's the edge, and where's the scam? • 🇧🇷 The Brazil election "two-horse arbitrage" explained • 📈 Betting SA's 2026 inflation print with a Bayesian model • 🎬 Netflix halved — Simon says it's now cheap • 📊 Stocks on the move: Bid Corp, Mr Price, OUTsurance, Vodacom, Absa, Gold Fields

CHAPTERS: 0:00 Introduction 1:20 Prediction markets: where's the edge? 4:35 The Brazil election arbitrage 8:05 Betting SA inflation with a Bayesian model 13:30 Upcoming events 14:25 Oil, Iran & Canada tariffs 16:45 Netflix: cheap for the first time in years 19:50 Stocks on the move

🌐 More at JustOneLap.com

A month after the year's most hyped listing, nearly everyone who bought SpaceX and held is underwater — and with the 180-day lock-up now gone, Simon Brown explains why insider selling is only getting started.

He then tours the week's biggest moves: Apple's copyright lawsuit against OpenAI and what it means for hardware and an IPO, Purple Group buying Telescope AI to strengthen EasyEquities, oil climbing back into the 80s as Middle East peace talks stall, De Beers closing its last South African mine, and Sappi languishing at 1998 levels.

He closes on a US 10-year yield near 4.6% and the start of a US earnings season priced for 23–24% EPS growth. Topics: SpaceX, OpenAI, Apple, Purple Group, Telescope AI, Brent oil, De Beers, Sappi, Mpact, US Treasuries, bank earnings.

WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.

Wars burn hardware, and rebuilding it takes years.

This week Simon Brown works through the defence sector as a replacement thesis — the US fired roughly half its THAAD interceptor stockpile in twelve days against Iran — and settles on Lockheed Martin as his pick, with RTX as a second choice.

He weighs the faster-growing but pricier European names (Leonardo, Thales, BAE Systems, Rheinmetall), runs through the main defence ETF options, and flags the risks: budgets are politics, and forward orders still have to convert.

Also covered: a post-IPO look at Bending Spoons, SK Hynix's planned $28bn Nasdaq listing and the memory trade, and the Q2 review of the Equity Coverage AI project — 26 names, 22 buys and one sell.

WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.

This week's WorldWideMarkets is a tour of cheap stocks that each come with a question mark.

Simon Brown looks at Microsoft, where a forward PE of around 20 against a mean of 33 makes it look inexpensive — except free cash flow has slipped back to 2021 levels as AI and data-centre capex ramps. He revisits Afrimat, a high-quality cyclical now trading near 10-year lows, and digs into Bending Spoons, the Italian roll-up of legacy tech brands like Evernote, WeTransfer and AOL heading to the NASDAQ under code BSP.

He also covers Naspers' latest results, the discount embedded in the Naspers-Prosus-Tencent chain, and why petrol gets a sizeable cut as Brent drops into the low 70s. Topics: Microsoft, Afrimat, Brent oil, Bending Spoons IPO, Naspers, Prosus, Tencent, Takealot.

WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.

MercadoLibre is down 40% for the year, and Simon Brown argues the market is mispricing it as a retailer while ignoring the fintech engine — Mercado Pago — that is becoming Latin America's biggest digital bank. Total payment volume now exceeds gross merchandise volume, even as management deliberately halves operating margins to grab market share.

This week also marks the death of former Fed chair Alan Greenspan at 100, a look at SpaceX's volatile listing that still sits above its IPO price, South African inflation cooling to 4.5% with petrol relief on the way, the first FOMC meeting with Jerome Powell no longer chair, and why Brent crude has fallen back to pre-conflict levels despite a major supply scare.

Topics: MercadoLibre, MELI, Amazon, SpaceX, Alan Greenspan, FOMC, SA inflation, Brent oil, offshore income.

WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.

A US–Iran cessation of hostilities, due to be signed Friday, has collapsed the oil price, firmed the rand back toward 16.00 and let gold hold key support — and Simon Brown argues markets are heading back to where they sat in late February, just with fewer rate cuts on the table.

This episode also unpacks the most hyped IPO in history opening softer than expected, South African inflation surprising lower at 4.5% with chunky petrol and diesel cuts due in July, a no-change FOMC meeting, and a busy stocks-on-the-move list.

Topics: US–Iran ceasefire, oil, rand, gold, emerging markets, SA inflation and fuel prices, FOMC, the big tech IPO, Clicks, Discovery, Bidcorp, Outsurance, Growthpoint, MTN and Mondi.

WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.

The World Cup kicks off Thursday — so which stocks actually win?

Simon Brown ran a data-driven hunt and the answer is counter-intuitive: skip the obvious bets. His own scrape of stadium-adjacent hotels found accommodation available everywhere, with 84 of 104 games unsold, so hoteliers have no pricing power and the retail uplift is marginal. The real edge sits with the kit makers — Adidas and Nike both screen cheap against analyst targets — and the betting operators, Sun International and NYSE-listed Super Group. He also looks at JSE newcomer Canal+ and the free-streaming threat from SABC Plus.

Plus: three mega IPOs landing at once (SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI) and the $160bn funding crunch behind Micron's 16% drop, and a bleak read on the PGM miners.

Topics: World Cup stocks, Adidas, Nike, Canal+, Sun International, Super Group, SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI, PGMs.

WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.

Simon Brown unpacks a US personal savings rate of just 2.6% — one of the lowest on record — and why it matters more as a fragility gauge than a crash signal.

He covers the collapsed Iran deal and its effect on oil and South African fuel prices, the SARB's prime rate hike to 10.5% and why he thinks the MPC has it wrong, and the near-10% surge in Naspers and Prosus on news that WeChat is putting AI at the centre of its app.

Plus SPAR's brutal trading update, the year-to-date scoreboard with South Korea up 123%, Afrimat's Nersa win, Dell's near four-bagger, and why Simon keeps buying Clicks at two-year lows.

Topics: US savings rate, Iran and oil, SARB rates, Naspers, Prosus, Tencent, SPAR, food retail, South Korea, Dell, Clicks. WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.

SpaceX comes to market on 12 June at a $1.75 trillion valuation — 94 times sales, where Amazon trades at four. Simon walks through where to actually buy it (Robinhood, Charles Schwab, Fidelity), why xAI is a rounding error in the AI race, and why Tesla is likely to be rolled into SpaceX within two to three years.

Plus the Dow Jones turns 130, Moody's lifts South Africa's outlook from stable to positive, Balwin delists at below NAV with Calgro M3 potentially next, and stocks on the move including Shoprite, AB InBev, Impala Platinum, and Gold Fields.

Topics: SpaceX IPO, Dow Jones, Moody's, Balwin delisting, Calgro M3, Canal Plus, Pope Leo XIV on AI, oil, Shoprite, AB InBev, Implats, Gold Fields, Anglo Gold Ashanti.

WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.

Global bond yields are spiking to multi-decade highs across the US, UK and Japan, and Simon Brown argues this looks a lot like the emerging market debt crises markets usually call doom and gloom.

He unpacks the Pick n Pay sell-down of Boxer shares, the Eastern Cape floods threatening the citrus crop, and the absurd Cerebras IPO trading at 150 times sales.

Plus an update on JustOneLap's institutional-grade research project, results from Calgro M3, WeBuyCars and Astral, the Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2026, and three stocks on the move: British American Tobacco, BHP Group and Clicks.

WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.

Boxer just posted ShopRite-level operating margins — so why is Pick & Pay, which owns 65% of it, trading at an implied negative enterprise value?

Simon Brown unpacks the R10bn valuation paradox and whether it's a genuine opportunity.

He also walks through his new AI-powered research workflow, using Claude and ChatGPT to produce and fact-check full initiating coverage reports on Balwin Properties and Raubex.

Plus: gold miners Goldfields and AngloGold Ashanti on costs, Meta at its cheapest forward PE since 2022, and Open Router token data that shows xAI running a distant fourth behind Anthropic, Google, and OpenAI.

WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.

Hyperscaler results from Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet produced numbers that almost don't seem real — combined remaining performance obligations of $1.46 trillion and Q1 capex of $112 billion.

Simon unpacks where that money is going, why copper is the quiet beneficiary, and which JSE stocks give exposure.

Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on $380 billion in cash, roughly 38% of its market cap — a meaningful drag while US markets sit at highs.

The memory makers — Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron — are choosing pricing power over capacity, with SK Hynix on a forward PE of 4.5.

Closer to home, the fuel price hike lands tomorrow with Brent back at $114, putting fragile consumer stocks under pressure. Plus an update on using AI for institutional-grade research and the upcoming JustOneLap events.

WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.

US markets hit all-time highs this week even as $166 billion in Trump tariff refunds start processing — a windfall for retailers, but consumers who paid inflated prices at the till won't see a cent back.

Tim Cook is stepping down at Apple with John Ternus taking over, Amazon is spending $11.57 billion to buy Globalstar and build a Starlink rival, and Netflix delivered Q1 results with a $2.8 billion Warner break fee buried in the numbers.

Simon also breaks down the Fed Chair nomination battle, why market recoveries are getting faster, and the sixth anniversary of the day WTI oil went negative.

WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.

US results season opens with Goldman Sachs and Johnson & Johnson both beating expectations — but the more interesting story is what those results don't show yet: the full impact of Middle East conflict and Trump's drug pricing pressure.

Simon also unpacks South Africa's looming fuel crisis and makes the economic case for working from home, a new 100% offshore ETF listing on the JSE from ETFSA, and an ASP Isotopes update for those holding a speculative position.

FNB's FCA-mandated R11.9bn provision for undisclosed UK vehicle finance commissions gets a full breakdown, as does the nuanced reality of the Straits of Hormuz "blockade" — it has T's and C's.

Plus a long-overdue Bitcoin check-in. WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.

South African consumer stocks have been hammered.

In Episode 673 of WorldWideMarkets, Simon Brown works through the JSE's food and clothing retailers — Shoprite, Boxer, Pick n Pay, SPAR, Pepkor, Foschini Group, Mr. Price, Lewis, and Woolworths — asking where genuine value has emerged and where cheap simply means broken.

He also sets the macro scene with Trump's Wednesday deadline on Iran peace talks and what a Straits of Hormuz transit fee would mean for oil prices and inflation.

Stock by stock: valuations, analyst targets, dividend yields, and Simon's honest take on what he holds and why.

Topics covered: JSE retail sector, food retailers, clothing retailers, Iran oil risk, consumer inflation, SA discretionary spending.

WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.

Simon reviews six listed space stocks ahead of the expected SpaceX IPO, which could debut above $2 trillion as early as June. Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, Intuitive Machines, Firefly Aerospace, Planet Labs and Spire Global each get a SWOT breakdown, with the Procure Space ETF (UFO) as a diversified alternative. On the local front, the JSE Top 40 just posted its worst month since September 2008, falling roughly 10 percent from all-time highs. A massive petrol price increase takes effect at midnight. Simon discusses investing into a falling market, revisits the Algorithm Holdings AI hype collapse, and explains why CrowdStrike's CEO selling stock is not worth losing sleep over. WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.

WorldWideMarkets episode 671 covers the return of US tariffs through Section 301 investigations targeting South Africa and 60 other countries — with no rate ceiling and no court precedent to stop them.

Simon unpacks the Iran war's tentative ceasefire talks, why Goldman Sachs revised its Brent forecast to $85, and what happens to oil and interest rates if the conflict drags on.

Monday's sharp gold selloff gets a post-mortem: leveraged FOMO unwinds, Turkey tapping reserves, and profit-taking after a year of doubling.

Two stock ideas round out the episode: Rocket Lab (RKLB) for pure-play space exposure and Franco Nevada (FNV) as a low-risk gold streaming alternative to miners.

Plus the MPC rate decision preview and a quick plug for the new AI in the Wild column.

WorldWideMarkets is part of JustOneLap.com.

Worldwide Markets — Episode 680 | 18 March 2026 Powered by Standard Bank, Global Markets, Retail and Shyft

⛽ Fuel Price Pain Coming Petrol 95 up ~R4.50/litre and diesel up ~R7.50/litre from the first Wednesday in April. On a 50-litre tank that's R200+ for petrol and close to R400 for diesel. Fill up before April if you can.

🛢️ Oil & The Iran War Brent holding above $100/barrel (currently ~$103.50) — briefly dipping to $99.80 on Monday before recovering. Markets are pricing in a short war. Some vessels — largely Iranian-linked ships — are still moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE and Kuwait have cut production. Strategic oil reserves are being released globally.

📉 Market Reactions Drops from the start of the war's close: China -1%, US -4%, UK -5%, Europe -6%, India -8%, Japan -9%, South Korea -12%, UAE -15%, SA -~10%. The rand at R16.72, SA 10-year bond yield has surged from below 8% to 8.9% — a massive move.

🌍 Emerging Market Risks A deep dive into countries with high USD-denominated debt and heavy oil imports. The most vulnerable: Mozambique (38% USD debt), Ghana (28%), Egypt (27%), Sri Lanka (26%), Pakistan (22%). Egypt is the only one in the MSCI EM Index — at a 0.03% weighting — so the direct ETF risk is limited. But Egypt and Pakistan carry real standalone risk.

🌱 Fertilizer & Food Prices Urea (a byproduct of LNG) is largely sourced from the UAE — and it's not moving right now. Fertilizer prices are spiking. Combined with diesel costs, food price inflation is coming — just with a lag. Casey Sprake (AG Capital) maps the timeline: transport 1–3 months, food 1–3 months, broader CPI 4 months, electricity up to a year.

🛒 Mr. Price* Update The investor presentation on the German fashion retailer acquisition landed today. Stock was up ~2.5% earlier but has since retreated into the red — not an aggressive selloff, with support just below R170.

📊 Results Roundup

AVI — solid numbers, strong margin protection, fashion had a surprisingly good December
Weaver Fintech (formerly HomeChoice) — buy-now-pay-later funnel leading into unsecured credit and insurance; majority female customer base; a neat business model
Absa — not bad
Standard Bank — exceptional cost discipline
Optasia* — maiden results, trading around listing price of ~R19, P/E ~30x but expected to grow at ~30%, PEG ~1

💻 SaaS Check-in The "SaaS is dead" debate continues. Mass layoffs (e.g. Block shedding ~4,000 staff) mean lost per-seat licences and potential revenue pressure. Worth watching, but tech hiring data still skews net positive for now.

🏦 Fed Chair Watch Trump's nominee Kevin Walsh hasn't been sent to the Senate yet — possibly compliance issues (Walsh's spouse is a billionaire). Senator Tillis (R) says he won't vote for any Fed chair nominee until charges against Jerome Powell are dropped. Jerome Powell's term ends end of May. Outcome unclear.

🧺 UK CPI Basket Changes Non-alcoholic beer, hummus, croissants, motorhomes and international rail fares are being added. Wine categories merged. Vegetables better represented. February data drops 25 March.

🤖 AI in the Wild Simon shares a cautionary Claude Opus 4.6 experience — building a detailed initiation report on ADvTech* worked well in parts, but the final consolidation hit rate limits, produced a corrupted document, and then delivered a garbled output with wrong JSE codes and incorrect founder attribution. A reminder that very long context windows can degrade LLM output quality.

Simon Brown

I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

World Wide Markets – Episode 669 📅 11 March 2026 | Hosted by Simon Brown Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets, Retail & SHYFT

🧭 Market Mood: Chaos Means Doing Nothing With geopolitical tensions and wild commodity moves, markets are extremely uncertain.

Simon's strategy right now?

🧘 Do nothing.

Panic trading rarely helps. In times of chaos, sometimes the best move is to step back, ignore the noise, and let events unfold.

🛢️ Oil Shock: From $60 to $120 Oil has been incredibly volatile.

📊 Recent moves

Early January: ~$60
Monday spike: ~$120
Tuesday: briefly below $90
Current level: ~$91

That still means oil is about 50% higher year-to-date.

The big issue remains disruption around the Strait of Hormuz.

🚢 Shipping traffic

Normal flow: ~20 million barrels/day
Last Wednesday: 0 barrels
Monday: ~20% of normal

Oil supply is slowly returning, but the situation remains fragile.

⛽ What This Means for South Africa Higher oil prices feed directly into local fuel prices.

💸 Earlier estimates suggested:

Petrol: +R5.40
Diesel: +R10

After oil pulled back slightly:

Petrol increase may be ~R3
Diesel ~R5

Still extremely painful for the economy.

📈 Inflation & Interest Rates Oil shocks ripple through inflation.

📊 Rule of thumb: Every $10 increase in oil adds ~0.4% to global inflation.

With oil roughly $30 higher, that could mean:

➡️ ~1.2% extra global inflation

For South Africa, that pushes inflation above 4% again.

🏦 Rate Cuts Are Off the Table Upcoming meetings:

🇺🇸 Fed decision: 18 March
🇿🇦 SARB MPC: 26 March

Previously expected: rate cuts.

Now?

❌ Cuts unlikely

Central banks will wait to see if second-round inflation effects emerge, things like higher transport and food costs.

⚔️ The War Question Markets are asking one thing:

How long does this conflict last?

Current signals:

Iran says it won't capitulate
US and Israel still active
UAE attacks have slowed

One possible constraint: missile inventories.

Iran's cheaper drones and missiles are being intercepted by extremely expensive defence systems.

At some point, stocks run out.

🛢️ G7 Emergency Oil Plan The G7 strategic reserves may be tapped.

📦 Strategic reserves: ~1.2 billion barrels

Possible release:

➡️ 300–400 million barrels

This could cover roughly 15–20 days of supply shortages caused by Hormuz disruptions.

That would buy time while infrastructure is repaired.

📉 Best vs Worst Oil Scenarios Best Case ✔ Conflict ends within weeks ✔ Strategic reserves released ✔ Oil stabilises in the $80s

Worst Case 🔥 War escalates 🔥 Shipping disruptions persist 🔥 Oil spikes to $150–$200

At those levels, we start seeing demand destruction — people simply use less energy.

🤖 New Structured Product: AI & Big Data Auto Call Standard Bank has launched a new structured product.

📊 AI & Big Data Auto Call

Key features:

💰 Return: 14% per year 📅 Term: Up to 5 years 🔁 Auto-call: Annual payout if index is flat or positive 💵 Currency: Rand 📉 Capital protection: Up to 30% downside buffer at maturity 📥 Minimum investment: R25,000

🧠 Index Constituents The product tracks the Solactive AI & Big Data Index.

Top holdings include:

Nvidia
Palantir
Snowflake
AMD
Broadcom
SoundHound AI
Kingsoft Cloud
BigBear.ai
DataVault
Zenitech

Total: 30 companies in the index.

🇿🇦 SA GDP: Small Steps Forward South Africa released Q4 GDP.

📊 Q4 2025: +0.4%

Full-year growth:

2024: 0.5%
2025: 1.1%

Not amazing, but improving.

Forecast for 2026:

📈 1.6% – 1.8%

If that happens, SA could finally see GDP growth above population growth, meaning real gains in wealth per person.

🎬 Paramount Buying Warner Bros (Again…) The media industry continues consolidating.

Deal overview:

💰 Paramount Skydance buying Warner Bros Discovery 📦 Price: ~$100 billion

Netflix initially pursued the deal but walked away.

💵 Result:

Netflix collected a $2.8B break fee
Its stock jumped ~15%

🇨🇳 Tencent Joins the Deal New twist:

Tencent plans to invest several hundred million dollars in the acquisition.

For South African investors:

Satrix 40 → Naspers → Prosus → Tencent → Paramount.

Yes… it's complicated.

🎥 Why Simon Thinks This Is a Bad Idea The concerns:

📉 Traditional media is declining 🤖 Studios betting on AI-generated content 🏛️ Politics may influence the deal

Warner Bros also has a long history of failed mega-mergers, including the infamous AOL–Time Warner disaster.

Simon's take:

This deal will likely be unwound later and probably at a lower price.

🕒 Market Hours Change The US switched to daylight savings.

New trading times for South Africa:

📈 US markets open at 15:30 (was 16:30)

✈️ Personal Note Simon is heading to Durban this weekend for his nephew's 18th birthday.

Time flies.

✔ Key Takeaway

Markets right now are being driven by geopolitics and energy prices.

Until the oil situation stabilises, central banks, and investors, are likely to remain cautious.

Simon Brown

I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

⚖️ Budget Boost: A Rare Win for Taxpayers 🇿🇦💰

This week kicked off with a surprisingly investor-friendly South African budget — and markets initially loved it.

Key Changes:

📈 CGT annual exclusion: R40,000 → R50,000
🏠 Primary residence CGT exclusion: R2m → R3m
💼 Retirement contribution limit: R350k → R430k (or 27.5%)
🌍 Offshore SDA allowance: Doubled to R2m
🎁 Donations tax exemption: R100k → R150k
🧾 Tax-free savings annual limit: R36,000 → R46,000
🏢 VAT registration threshold: R1m → R2.3m

After years of "tax by stealth," this budget offered real relief — especially for investors and small businesses.

💡 Lump Sum vs Monthly Tax-Free? Data from NinetyOne & Morningstar suggests:

✅ Lump sum at the start of the tax year typically outperforms.
📊 But in volatile markets, patience may offer better entry points.

Simon has funded his tax-free — but hasn't deployed it yet 👀

💻 Dell Delivers 🚀 Strong results from Dell Technologies sent the share price soaring ~20%.

Entry around $118
Now trading near $153
AI infrastructure demand driving upside
Big capex spend from hyperscalers boosting the thesis

US markets don't play gently — they reprice fast and aggressively.

🌍 Oil Shock: War & Market Volatility 🛢️🔥 The geopolitical narrative changed dramatically.

Escalating conflict involving Iran has rattled global markets — with oil at the center.

Key Developments:

⚠️ Reports of navigation threats in the Strait of Hormuz
🚢 Tankers rerouting / suspending activity
🛢️ Brent crude jumped from $72 → $83+
💸 Rand weakened to 16.36
📉 JSE down over 4%

About 20% of global oil supply passes through the Strait. Any prolonged disruption:

🚗 Pushes fuel prices higher
📈 Risks inflation spikes
🏦 Puts rate cuts at risk (MPC meeting: 26 March)
🌍 Raises global recession concerns

Possible Scenarios: 1. Quick de-escalation → Oil settles $75–$80 2. Prolonged tension → Oil $90+ 3. Full closure → Brent $100+, global recession risk

South Africa imports ~70% of its crude — so oil + rand = inflation risk.

📌 Key message: Don't panic. Stay long-term focused.

🚗 Vehicle Sales: Still Surging 🚙📊 February 2026 vehicle sales surprised again:

🚘 Total sales: 53,000 (vs ~48,000 last year)
📈 Local sales up 11%
📉 Exports down 28%
📊 Year-to-date sales up nearly 10%

Strong growth continues — particularly from Chinese brands gaining market share.

Despite geopolitical risk, domestic demand remains resilient.

🤖 AI + Investing: Deep-Dive into SaaS 📈 Simon continues experimenting with AI tools like Claude & Perplexity for fundamental research.

SaaS Sell-Off = Opportunity? Basket explored:

Salesforce
Adobe
Intuit
ServiceNow
Workday
Datadog

Preferred picks: ✅ Salesforce ✅ Adobe ✅ Intuit

AI-generated DCF models suggest potential upside between 40–75% (based on last week's pricing).

Key insight: Replacing enterprise software isn't about code — it's about retraining millions of users.

🎯 Final Thoughts Markets are volatile. War introduces uncertainty. Oil is the key risk variable.

But:

🧠 Stay rational
⏳ Stay long term
💰 Deploy capital thoughtfully
🚫 Don't panic

If you've got time on your side — don't stress your portfolio.

See you next week 👋

Simon Brown

I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

This special broadcast is the recording of the Budget Panel 2026 with AJM, Baker Tilly Greenwoods, and FNB.

Simon Brown hosts and his guests are;

The Hon Ashor Sarupen Dep Fin Minister
Mamello Matikinca chief economist at FNB
Dr Christo Wiese – business man
Dr Albertus Marais – Partner AJM

World Wide Markets – Episode 667 📅 25 February 2026 | Hosted by Simon Brown

Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets, Retail & Shyft

⚡ Eskom: 280 Days Without Load Shedding * South Africa has now reached 280 days without load shedding. Standard Bank's electricity tracker report highlights that the last significant outages were 26 hours across April and May 2025, taking the effective streak back to 26 March 2024. After 17 years of load shedding since 2008, the energy availability factor and other key metrics are looking dramatically better. Credit goes to Eskom's operational improvements, industrial-scale solar and wind investment, and households with rooftop solar installations.

🇺🇸 Trump's Tariff Chaos: Supreme Court Ruling & What Comes Next The ruling: The US Supreme Court ruled 6-3 against Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977 to impose tariffs, finding no international emergency existed. This is a significant legal defeat.

The refund problem: Roughly $150–170 billion in tariffs have been collected. Companies like Walmart and Costco will want that money back, since the Supreme Court has effectively declared these tariffs illegal. Chief Justice Roberts acknowledged the refund process will be "messy" — an understatement.

Trump's new move: On Friday evening, Trump pivoted to Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, signing an executive order imposing a flat 10% tariff on all countries (with the law allowing up to 15%). This is a notable reduction for South Africa, which was previously on 30%. However, this only runs for 150 days, expiring mid-July.

Other legal avenues Trump could pursue:

Section 301 (Trade Act of 1974): Used against China in his first term, but requires formal investigations and findings — too slow for Trump's style.

Section 338 (Tariff Act of 1930): Allows up to 50% tariffs without investigation, has never been used, and would almost certainly face court challenges.

The bottom line: Tariffs aren't going away. Trump views them as a political weapon and a negotiating stick. He'll keep finding new legislative tools to wield them. Around a dozen trade deals have been signed under the "90 deals in 90 days" framework, though countries that signed early (like the UK at ~10%) may feel they overpaid.

📢 Upcoming Event: Protecting Your Portfolio & Navigating Scams 🗓️ 24 March | 11:00 AM | Webcast with 1nvest

First in a series covering protecting your portfolio and navigating scams, with social media red flags guidance from Lungeli at 1nvest, plus a conversation with 1nvest's compliance officer on what financial advice looks like (and what it doesn't). Future webcasts will cover emerging markets vs tech vs developed markets, income investing, and commodities.

👉 More info and booking at JustOneLap.com/events

💻 SaaS Stocks Under Pressure: Is Vibe Coding Really the Threat? Software-as-a-service stocks have been hammered on fears that "vibe coding" (using AI tools to build software) could replace platforms like Salesforce. Simon is sceptical — replacing the software is perhaps 10% of the challenge. The real difficulty is retraining tens of thousands of staff, migrating data without losses, and managing a massive transition process.

Goldman Sachs' SOHO Index shows capital-heavy stocks (manufacturers, farmers) up nearly 40% since June 2025, while capital-light stocks (Microsoft, NVIDIA, Alphabet) have been largely flat — a notable divergence.

IBM dropped ~10% on news that Anthropic's Claude Code can convert COBOL to modern languages, but Simon remains cautious about overhyping AI capabilities. He's currently reviewing a 20-page AI-generated SaaS research report from Claude Opus 4.6 and will report back next week.

💰 Budget 2026 Preview What to expect:

Fiscal drag relief is likely, funded by extra revenue from precious metals booms (higher corporate tax and dividend tax from gold and PGM miners) and SARS's clampdown on arrears (~R20 billion recovered).

Tax-free savings annual limit could increase from R36,000 — possibly to R40,000 or even R60,000 (per Nireena Fissa of ETFSA, since 60,000 divides neatly by 12). This costs Treasury very little in the short term since the big capital gains tax hit is years away.

Reg 28 changes: Unlikely — these would cost Treasury money immediately.

Capital gains exclusion (R40,000): Unlikely to change despite being unchanged for over a decade — another stealth tax.

Interest exemptions: No changes expected.

Simon's tax tip: He's been selling down long-held ETF positions (originally ITRIX, now Cygnia World) to use the R40,000 annual CGT exclusion, then reinvesting into a different ETF with a better total expense ratio. Important: don't sell and rebuy the same instrument immediately — SARS treats that as "washing."

Overall expectation: A boring budget, which is exactly what markets want.

📊 Commodities Check-In Palladium 🔩 Broke through $1,100 and $1,200 early last year, pulled back to $1,350 late in 2025, now consolidating around $1,617–$1,700. Support sits at the $1,650–$1,700 level. Not going to the moon, but holding at higher levels — which is what matters.

Platinum 🪙 Broke $1,000 in June, then $1,250 in July. Has since consolidated around the $2,000–$2,150 range, well off the $2,800 high but maintaining higher support levels. Results from Sibanye-Stillwater, Impala Platinum, and Northam confirm the improved earnings picture.

Gold Currently at $5,153 and running hard. Simon admits gold has proved him wrong — after January's volatile drop of nearly $1,000 from the $5,600 high to the Monday low, he expected consolidation around $4,500 or even $4,000. Instead, gold consolidated around $5,000 and has resumed its rally. His advice for those who feel they've "missed" the run: scale in gradually, buying a third at current prices and adding on dips or at intervals.

Brent Crude Oil Had been under pressure until the US detained the president of Venezuela (heavy, sour crude — less critical but still impactful). Oil briefly dipped below $60 but has since recovered. The $70–$71.50 level is important resistance; a break above targets $80 and then mid-$80s. Looks like a short-term blip for now — hopefully not the start of a longer trend.

💱 Rand/Dollar Update The rand is trading around R16.02 to the dollar, with the trend firmly toward a weaker dollar. Foreigners have been net buyers of South African bonds, and the US dollar index continues to show weakness — something Trump actively wants. If the dollar loses another 7–8%, that could push the rand into the mid-R14s. Sounds dramatic, but as Simon puts it: "Don't fight the rand."

🎙️ Next week: Budget reaction + AI SaaS research report review

Thanks for listening — look after yourself, and if you can, look after somebody else too. ✌️

Simon Brown

I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

Worldwide Markets - Episode 666 📊

18 February 2025 🇿🇦 South African Economic Indicators * Unemployment hits 5-year low - but still a tragic 31.4% * The Achilles heel: Need GDP growth to break below 20% * 10-year bond yields at decade lows - 7.97% (down from 11% during load shedding) * Government saving on new bond issuances, though impact is modest * Potential budget windfall from precious metals next week

ZA 10-year yield | weekly

🤖 AI Valuations: Testing Anthropic's Opus 4.6 * Can AI do DCF valuations? Testing on Dell (NYSE: DELL) * Opus 4.6 created detailed discounted cash flow model in ~10 minutes * 148 formulas, zero errors (after self-correction) * Fair value estimate: $172 vs current ~$115 (significant upside potential) * ⚠️ Important caveats: Sensitivity assumptions critical (WACC, terminal growth, risk-free rate) * DCF is just ONE valuation methodology * Rate limiting kicks in with heavy usage ($20/month tier) * US stocks work better than local stocks currently

💼 US Economy Update * Strong fundamentals emerging: + $600B+ capex spend by hyperscalers (Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft) + Better-than-expected January CPI + Unemployment at 4.3% (jobs report revised down 1M though) + GDP tracking closer to 3% than 1-1.5% * Two rate cuts still on the table for 2025 * Tech infrastructure spending providing economic underpin

🚚 The Karaoke Company Logistics Disruption (?) * Algorhythm stock chaos: Up 222% Friday, another 15% pre-market Tuesday * From karaoke company to AI logistics software ("SemiCab") in 6 months * Entire logistics sector sold off on the news * Reality check needed: Santova and others already doing this with Oscar software * Market overreaction? Small operators still use fax machines * Don't panic-short established players like Santova

📅 Upcoming Events * Power Hour Thursday 5:30pm - Tax efficiency & ETF revolution (Standard Bank Rosebank or webcast) * ETF database updated with FNB, 10X, 1nnvest, Satrix funds * Budget next Wednesday - Simon will be in Cape Town

Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets, Retail and Shyft

"Look after yourself. If you can look after somebody else as well." 💚

Simon Brown

I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🎙️ Worldwide Markets – Episode 665

📅 11 February | 🎧 Recorded Tuesday around lunchtime 💼 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft

🌍 This week in markets * Massive hyperscaler CapEx is back in focus 💰🏗️ * Markets appear calmer – the worst of the recent collapse may be behind us 😮‍💨 * Bitcoin mining costs now around $70,000, putting pressure on miners ⛏️₿ * A deep dive into junior miners – why so many of them struggle ⚒️📉

🏗️ Hyperscalers go full throttle * 2025 CapEx spend near $380bn, well above expectations * 2026 estimates push towards $660bn when Oracle is included * The hyperscalers: + Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon ☁️ * The "shovel sellers": + Nvidia, ASML, TSMC 🧑‍🏭🪓 * Key shift: these businesses are no longer asset-light * Warning signs emerge as some stocks trade below their 200-day moving averages ⚠️📉

"Nothing good happens below the 200-day."

📊 Stocks & charts * Microsoft & Meta showing the most technical stress * Nvidia and ASML still look healthy on the charts ✅ * Apple largely staying out of the AI CapEx frenzy 🍏 * 1nvest ETF5IT*: profits taken previously, now watching closely 👀

🤖 Software shock & AI disruption * Growing fear around software-as-a-service under pressure * New AI tools like Claude and "vibe coding" spooking SaaS names 💻😬 * Reality check: + Niche software may struggle + Enterprise platforms (e.g. Salesforce-type businesses) are harder to replace

🪙 Bitcoin, gold & currencies * Bitcoin dipped below $60,000, now rebounded to mid-$60k * Mining economics tight at current prices ⚠️ * Gold back above $5,000, refusing to consolidate 🥇🔥 * Ongoing dollar weakness and rand strength 💵⬇️ 🇿🇦⬆️

🌐 The debasement trade * Signs of slow de-dollarisation and capital moving out of US Treasuries * China reportedly limiting (not stopping) US bond buying 🇨🇳📉 * Key takeaway: + This is a multi-decade trend, not a short-term trade 🐢 * Governments reduce debt via: + Inflation + Currency weakness

🖥️ A possible opportunity: servers * Hyperscalers replacing ageing chips & servers faster than expected * Alphabet spending up to $185bn, with ~⅓ just on replacement 🔁 * Question raised: Is Dell a quiet AI beneficiary? 🖥️📦 + Forward PE near 10 + Analysts broadly constructive

⚒️ Junior miners: why it's so hard * Spotlight on Copper 360, Orion, ASP Isotopes* * The commodity may be in the ground – but: + Extraction is complex + Capital is hard to raise + Logistics, infrastructure & communities matter 🚧 * Junior mining = high risk by design 🎢 * Even experienced operators fail

📢 Events & deadlines * Power Hour – 19 February 🕠 17:30 | 💻 Webinar or 🏢 Rosebank + Tax-free investing beyond TFSA + ETFs, income strategies & Reg 28 * Important reminder ⏰ + Many providers have early contribution deadlines + Don't leave Reg 28 or TFSA top-ups to the last minute

👉 More info: justonelap.com/events

🙌 Wrapping up * CapEx boom isn't over – but cracks are forming * AI demand strong, real ROI still unproven * Junior miners remain speculative and unforgiving * Stay cautious, stay curious

"Look after yourself — and if you can, look after someone else too." ❤️

Simon Brown

I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

Worldwide Markets – Episode 664 📅 Recorded: Tuesday midday | 🎙️ Host: Simon Brown

This week on Worldwide Markets, we unpack a wild ride across commodities, central banks, tech titans, and global trade — with gold stealing the spotlight once again.

🟡 Has Gold Bottomed? Gold went vertical — and then snapped back hard.

📈 Ran from around $4,300 → $5,600, before a brutal sell-off
📉 Dropped to $4,600, now stabilising near $4,900
🕯️ That giant red "kangaroo tail" candle looks ugly — but…

The bigger picture hasn't changed:

💵 Debasement trade still intact
🌍 Central banks bought ~800 tonnes last year
🏦 ETF investors were big buyers again after selling in 2024

➡️ Verdict: Likely consolidation, not collapse. Sideways is the base case.

Gold |Weekly | 03 February 2026

🧱 Commodities Ran Too Hot It wasn't just gold:

🔩 Copper, silver, platinum, palladium all surged
🛢️ Brent crude nearly hit $70
🪨 Aluminium hit US record prices, creating transatlantic arbitrage

Nothing goes straight up forever — profit-taking was inevitable.

🪙 What About Silver? Simon stays honest here:

❓ Industrial demand and price dislocations matter
⚠️ But silver remains complex and opaque

💡 Portfolio stance:

✅ Holding gold miners
✅ Holding gold ETFs (local & offshore)
❌ No silver exposure — and comfortable with that

🏦 Fed Drama: Enter Steve Walsh Trump's Fed chair nominee spooked markets — but context matters:

🔄 Walsh is not a hawk, more a rate flip-flopper
🗳️ Previously opposed rate cuts… until Trump won
📉 Trump wants lower rates — Walsh says he'll deliver

The challenge?

🧠 Convincing the rest of the FOMC
🪑 Jerome Powell still has influence for now

➡️ Expect noise, not an instant policy pivot.

🚀 SpaceX + xAI = Trillion-Dollar IPO? Big Elon energy this week:

🛰️ SpaceX acquires xAI
🧠 Grok + data + power + space = big ambitions
📊 IPO rumoured for mid-2026
💰 Valuation likely north of $1 trillion

Simon likes SpaceX… less excited by the social-media side.

🚗 SA Vehicle Sales: Still Strong January numbers surprised again:

📊 Sales near levels last seen in 2019 / early 2022
🏆 Toyota leads, but Chinese brands keep climbing
🇨🇳 Chery, GWM, JAC & friends reshaping the market

Consumers are still buying — despite high rates.

🤝 US–India Trade "Peace"… Sort Of A deal was announced, but details are fuzzy:

📉 Tariffs reduced (somewhat)
🛢️ India supposedly to stop buying Russian oil (👀)
💸 India to buy $500bn of US goods (timeline unclear)

History lesson:

🌮 Trump tariff threats turn real only ~20% of the time
⚖️ Supreme Court still deciding if Trump even has the authority

➡️ Lots of headlines, fewer guarantees.

🎓 Upcoming Event: Power Hour 📅 19 February 📍 Rosebank (in-person) + webcast 💡 Topic: Tax-Free Investing & ETFs

👉 Book at justonelap.com/events

👋 Closing Thoughts Markets are noisy, emotional, and fast — but the big-picture trends still matter more than the candles.

Until next week: 🤍 Look after yourself 🤍 And if you can, look after someone else too

Cheers! 🍻

Simon Brown

I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

️ Worldwide Markets – Episode 663 📅 28 January | Recorded late Tuesday afternoon Host: Simon Brown

Powered by: Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft – the global money app for travel, shopping, payments & investing 🌍💳

This week a quick look at gold and the Rand, both did what was expected over the year in the first month.

Then picks for the Cristal Challenge 2026 and the Moneyweb Investor Challenge.

Three bankers that go into each challenge. Then four floaters, two per each challenge to mix it up a bit.

Best of luck to all who enter :)

Simon Brown

I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

For the thirteenth year in a row Keith McLachlan, Marc Ashton and Simon Brown kick off the new year with a predictions show.

First they check in and mark what they said last year. Then they each offer three predictions for the year ahead and a view on the Top40 and Rand/

Find last years show here.

🌍 Worldwide Markets — Episode 660

🎙️ The Best and Worst of the JSE in 2025 📅 10 December 2025 🎧 Final episode of the year — back 14 January 2026 💼 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft

🏁 Opening Thoughts * Last podcast of 2025! 🎉 * A huge thank-you to listeners, watchers and everyone who engaged across the year 🙏 * A wild year for markets, but a great year for returns 📈 * Wishing everyone a restful and safe festive break ✈️🌞

🎥 Power Hour Recap — Position Your Portfolio for 2026 📌 Highlights included:

🔙 Looking back at 2025's predictions (keeping it honest!)
🤖 The state of AI: spotting bubbles, when to worry, triggers to watch
💰 Gold & commodities outlook
🛍️ Local retail — opportunities & risks
🚀 IPO environment
🧭 Positioning for 2026

Watch here.

🥇 Best Performers of the JSE in 2025 🪙 1. Precious Metals: The Dominant Theme of 2025 Gold & PGM miners absolutely owned the market this year. If you weren't in them… your portfolio lagged the benchmark.

Top returns (total return to 8 Dec):

🥇 Sibanye-Stillwater* — +258% 🤯
🥈 AngloGold Ashanti* — ~+240%
🥉 Northam — +214%
🏅 Gold Fields — +195%
Implats — +153%
Thungela / Valterra / others — 130–140% range
Harmony — +119%

📌 Why the boom?

Gold price exploded early in the year 🌕
Safe-haven flows amid tariff drama, budgets, DeepSeek shock
Strong production + not-yet-expensive valuations

💬 Simon: Still bullish on gold miners — not expecting another double, but valuations remain attractive if gold holds current levels.

🎓 2. Education Sector Winners * 🎓 Stadio — +89% * 🧑‍🏫 Killed it with distance learning demand and tertiary approvals * 📉 Curo delisted; ADvTech* solid with +20%

🟣 3. Purple Group* & EasyEquities * +87% 🚀 * Bull markets = busy brokers * Results were slightly soft in H2 (bonuses cycle), but long-term story intact

📡 4. Telcos Roar Back (From a Very Low Base) * 📱 MTN — +76% * 🔵 Blue Label — +73% (Cell C momentum) * 🔌 IOCA — +65% * ☎️ Telkom — +60% * 🟥 Vodacom — +38%

📌 Simon sold MTN a decade ago during the Nigerian fine panic — and never re-entered. Lesson: When it's time to panic, panic fast.

💰 5. Standout Financials & Miscellaneous * 🟪 Sygnia — +72% * 💻 Datatec — +70% (surprise performer) * 🍗 Astral — +49% (thanks, cheaper maize!) * 🐓 Rainbow Chicken — +43% * 🏢 Growthpoint — +48% (big dividends) * 🧱 Property sector broadly strong again: Redefine, Octodec, etc. * 🏦 PSG Financial Services — +40% * 💼 Capitec — +29% * 🏦 Standard Bank — +31% — notably ahead of Capitec * 🟧 Naspers — +25% (Simon sees opportunity post-share split) * 🛢️ Sasol — +25% (still not a favourite)

🛒 6. Retail: The Year's Big Disappointment * 🛋️ Lewis — +22% (but deep down the list) * 🥩 Spur — +15% * 🍗 Famous Brands — –16% * 🛒 Shoprite — –4.6% (value emerging) * 🛍️ Pick n Pay — –17% (slow turnaround) * 👗 Mr Price — –26% (Simon still sees value) * 👟 Pepkor — weak, but potential for recovery

🔻 Worst Performers of the JSE in 2025 💥 Biggest Losers * 🚨 Nutun / Transaction Capital legacy — –52% * 👗 Foschini* (TFG) — –50% * 📄 Sappi — –46% (ongoing structural challenges) * 🧱 Afrimat — –43% (Lafarge integration still tough; Simon sees opportunity) * 💉 Aspen — –43% (lost sterile facility contract; utilization still weak) * 🔧 Cashbuild — –37% (SA consumers tapped out) * 📺 eMedia — heavy selling post-unbundling

🛒 Retailers Under Pressure * 🥀 Spar — –28% (competition from Boxer + Shoprite + Pick n Pay) * 👖 Mr Price — –26% * 🍔 Famous Brands — –16% * 🍩 Life Healthcare, Renergen*, ArcelorMittal SA — all struggling

📉 Macro, Risks & 2026 Outlook 🌱 Green Shoots in South Africa * Early signs of improvement appearing * Fragile but real: improving volumes, some recovery in SA Inc, stabilising consumer pockets * REITs & banks starting from low valuations

⚠️ Risks * Moody's kept SA unchanged; risks tilt to the downside * A global AI bubble burst would hit emerging markets hard * External shocks more dangerous than local issues

📈 Global Watch: The Mag 7 & Market Signals * Bubble warning model: Two giants below the 200-day MA * Meta dipped back below — but still only one of the seven triggering * Nvidia chart still healthy * Gold still bullish * Oil looks very weak

🤝 Closing the Year Simon wraps 2025 with gratitude and optimism:

✨ "It's been a year — a wild one — but at least we got returns."
❄️ Be safe this festive season
🙌 Special thanks to those working through December (retail, hospitality, logistics)
🎙️ Back 14 January 2026 with the annual predictions show featuring Keith McLachlan & Marc Ashton — and, as always, they'll mark themselves before forecasting ahead.

🔗 Powered By 🏦 Standard Bank Global Markets 🌍 Shyft – the global money app 💸 Cheapest Forex rates, anywhere, anytime

Simon Brown

I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

Worldwide Markets – Episode 659 Show Notes

"It's Been a Year… But Markets Loved It" 📆 3 December 2025 🎙️ Host: Simon Brown 🏦 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft — the global money app.

🌍 Opening: A Wild Year That Somehow Ended Beautifully * Despite chaos from January to April — tariffs, collapsing markets, surging yields, rand at 19.90 — markets still delivered a stellar year. * If you had gone on holiday 1 Jan and checked your portfolio today, you'd think it was a boring year… but Yowza! It was anything but. * Reminder: Wall Street ≠ Main Street — markets often move ahead of economic reality.

🤖 AI Chaos in January: DeepSeek Shakes the Market * Chinese model DeepSeek stunned the AI world, training for ~$6m vs OpenAI's multi-billion dollar spend. * Raised questions: cheaper API access, open-source surge, China's rapid AI emergence. * Set the tone for a year of AI leapfrogging between global players.

🇺🇸 The Trump Factor: Tariffs Everywhere * Trump sworn in (20 Jan) → tariffs on Mexico & Canada within days. * Tore up the post-WW2 geopolitical playbook → raised questions of US reliability going forward. * Triggered global uncertainty but markets... shrugged.

🇿🇦 Local Madness: The Three Budget Attempts * SA tried three times to get a budget passed. * Rand collapses into "Liberation Tariff Day", hits 19.90 → quickly followed by "90 deals in 90 days" promises. * Only three months in and the year was already unhinged.

📉 April Market Meltdown… Followed by a Stunning Recovery * US 10-yr at 4.5%, US equities down 15%, local markets collapsing, bonds selling off. * By December → Nikkei near highs, Europe at highs, JSE powered by gold, US pushed by the Mag 7. * Markets looked glorious by year-end, despite everything.

🎙️ Upcoming: Best-Performing JSE Stocks of 2025 * Spoiler: Gold miners will dominate. * Full breakdown coming next week in the final show of 2025.

🖼️ NanoBanana & Gemini: AI Image Tools Blow Simon's Mind * Simon has used DALL·E heavily for two years — but:

+ ❌ slow
+ ❌ bad at text
+ ❌ struggles with edits

NanoBanana + Gemini 3:
- ⚡ insanely fast
- 🔠 perfect text edits
- 🎨 clean output
- Alphabet has:
- 💰 massive free cash flow
- 🌐 billions of users
- 📢 advertising infrastructure
- → Giving them a potential edge in AI monetisation (for now).

📈 AI Stock Bubble: Is It Popping? * Nvidia chart not bearish — holding support around 165–166 and bouncing. * Mag 7 vs 200-day moving average:

+ ⬇️ Only Meta is below.
+ Microsoft, Amazon still comfortably above.

Conclusion:
- 🤯 We are in a bubble… but it's not bursting yet.
- More insights coming in the Power Hour.

[caption id="attachment_55081" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Nvidia weekly chart | 01 December 2025[/caption]

🪙 Bitcoin: The Chart Looks Ugly * Trump is the most pro-crypto president ever, but BTC isn't reacting positively. * Peaked at $126k in October → now around $87k. * Breaking support levels:

+ ⚠️ If current zone doesn't hold → sub-$70k likely.

Gold vs Bitcoin comparison:
- 🥇 Gold behaves like a hedge.
- ₿ Bitcoin remains a speculative asset, not a store of value or inflation hedge.

[caption id="attachment_55082" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Bitcoin weekly chart | 02 December 2025[/caption]

🇿🇦 South African GDP: Some Bright Spots Q3 2025 GDP:

📈 +0.5% QoQ
📈 +2.1% YoY
🚧 Gross fixed capital formation +1.6% → first strong rise since Q2 2023.
- Means: building → roads, dams, solar, infrastructure — very positive.

🏦 Banks Benefit Most Reasons:

👍 GDP uptick
⬆️ Credit upgrades
⬇️ Lower expected inflation
⬇️ Lower rates coming
🟩 Off the grey list

Valuations:

Price-to-book: 1.0–1.5×
Yields: high single digits
Winners depend on style:
- 💸 Deep value → ABSA, Nedbank
- ⚖️ Balanced → Standard Bank, FNB
- 🦄 Premium → Capitec (always expensive)

🏢 Shaftesbury (UK REIT): One to Watch * Formerly Capital & Counties. * Own Covent Garden & key West End locations. * Never recovered from Brexit: from £4 → now £1.42. * Fundamentals:

+ 💰 Single-digit PE (~8)
+ 📉 Yield 2.7%
+ 📊 Analyst range: £1.48–£2.10

Not a buy yet — but on the watchlist due to prime assets.

🏘️ SA Property: The Easy Money Is Gone * SA REITs had:

+ 🚀 Huge 2024
+ 📈 Strong 2025

Many now trade around NAV:
- Storage, Spear, Vukile → at/near NAV
- Octodec → still at discount
- Simon prefers 15% discount to NAV before buying.
- Markets have closed the gap — valuations now full.
- If REITs move to 10–15% premiums, Simon will run.

🔮 Next Week: Final Show of 2025 * Full list of best and worst JSE performers of the year. * Small caps that surprised everyone. * Then → back week of 12 Jan with Marc Ashton & Keith McLachlan for the annual predictions episode.

👋 Wrap-Up A shorter show this week, but packed with market insight, AI breakthroughs, Bitcoin trouble, UK property opportunities, and SA's slow-but-positive GDP recovery.

As always: 💙 Look after yourself. 🤝 And if you can, look after someone else too.

Simon Brown

I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

dd

🌍 Worldwide Markets – Episode 658 📅 26 November 2025 🎙️ Hosted by Simon Brown 💼 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft

🔥 This Week's Big Themes * 📊 JSE 10-year returns — miners dominate! * 💽 Nvidia results: great numbers, strange market reaction * 🥇 Harmony goes big on copper * 🛠️ SA Inc sleeper stock ready to run with GDP recovery * 📦 Process/Tencent update: super-app dreams + buybacks * 🧠 Standard Bank launches new AI structured product * 🎯 Power Hour: Position your portfolio for 2026 (8 December)

🏭 Invicta Results — A Deep Value SA Inc Play * 🏗️ Capital equipment group with exposure to SA, EU, US & Asia. * 🌍 Tariffs hit their China → US shipments. * 💰 Valuation extremely cheap:

+ PE
+ Dividend yield > 3%
+ Price-to-book: 0.7

🚧 SA's weak GDP is the drag — but a recovery to 1.8% → 2% → 3% could turn this into a major SA Inc winner.
⚙️ Manufacturers sweating assets = more parts sold = small cyclical buffer.

🥢 Prosus / Naspers / Tencent — Cash Flow Turns Positive * 💵 First positive free cash flow ever → +$59m vs -$104m. * 💰 Billions of $ in cash reserves. * 🍔 Food delivery (iFood, etc.) gaining scale + working toward a unified "super-app" model. * 🧧 Still overwhelmingly driven by Tencent, but:

+ 🎮 Tencent Games
+ 🎵 Tencent Music
+ 📺 Online ads
+ 📱 WeChat ecosystem
+ 🎥 Epic Games stake
+ 🎞️ TikTok-style platforms

🔄 Ongoing share buybacks funded by selling Tencent into Hong Kong.

💻 Nvidia — Big Beat, Yet the Stock Falls? * 📈 Beat on revenue, profit, and guidance — classic Nvidia. * 🤔 But inventory jumped 32%, raising questions about demand visibility. * 🏭 Meta reportedly exploring Google chips, with Amazon & Google also pushing their own silicon. * ⚠️ Non-Nvidia chips = slower + higher power usage → still "B-grade". * 📉 Technically:

+ Support at ~$180
+ Next support ~$166
+ Further support ~$150s

🎈 Bubble chatter now turning into "yes, it is a bubble" — but bubbles go UP before they pop.
📉 Mag-7 200-day MA signals:
- Only Meta sits below (-10%).
- Microsoft almost there (+1.5%).
- Amazon also soft (+5%).

🥇 Harmony — From Gold to Copper Giant? * 🪙 Buying + building the Eva copper project in Australia. * 🧱 Production cost: $2.50/lb copper (vs spot ~$4.50–$5.25). * ⛏️ Harmony is shifting from pure gold → gold + copper, diversifying earnings. * 🎙️ Jimmy Moyaha's view:

+ ✔️ Good blend of cyclical exposures
+ ✔️ Some risk hedging between metals

⛏️ Deep SA gold mines = harder + costlier → copper is a logical hedge.
🔌 Copper = "metal of the future" (again) due to electrification & green tech.

🧠 Standard Bank AI Structured Product (Now Open!) * 🧺 Basket:

+ 🇺🇸 US Tech (NASDAQ)
+ 🇨🇳 China Tech (KWEB)

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- If not, each subsequent year with positivity → 16% per year
- Max 5-year horizon = up to 80%
- 🛡️ Capital protection:
- 100% capital back if indices not more than 30% down at maturity
- 💵 Minimum: R25,000 (+ R1,000 increments)
- 🗓️ Closing: 3 December 2025
- 📍 Available via OST or your stockbroker.

📈 10-Year JSE Winners — The Miners Dominate 🥇 Top Performers (per-year returns, excluding dividends) * 🥇 Harmony Gold — 43.5% p.a. (3600% total!) * 🥈 Gold Fields — 37% * 🥉 Kumba Iron Ore — 33% (42% incl. dividends) * ⚒️ Exxaro — 28% + 12% dividends * ⚙️ Northam Platinum — 28.5% * 🇬🇧 Argent — 27% (first non-miner) * 💼 African Rainbow Capital / Valterra — 25% * 🏦 Capitec — 22.5% + dividends → 24% total * 🛠️ Bell Equipment, Merafe, Sibanye — strong ~19%+ * 🌐 Datatec — 19% + 17% dividends → 37%

📉 Big Losers (per-year declines) * 🪓 Eskom (ELI / ACO) — -26% * 📦 Nampak — -18% * 🛏️ City Lodge — -14.5% * 🧪 ArcelorMittal — -14% * 💊 Aspen — -10% * 🛢️ Sasol — -10% * 🏘️ Balwin — -7% * 🍔 Famous Brands — -7% * 🧱 PPC — -5% * 🛒 Pick n Pay — -5% * 🏥 Netcare — -4.8% * 🧺 Woolworths — 2.4% p.a. (only 1.4% incl. dividends)

📊 Top 40 — 10-Year Benchmark Performance * 📈 118% total return over 10 years * 📉 CAGR: 8.2% (≈10.5% incl. dividends) * 📌 Best period: 11.6% (2019) * 📌 Worst: ~3% during crisis * 🎯 Real return (CPI ~5%): ≈7% — very respectable.

📣 Call to Action 💬 Tell us in the comments:

Which 10-year winners do you own?
Which stats shocked you most?
What's your best-performing JSE stock of the last decade?

Worldwide Markets — Episode 657 (19 November 2025) 🗓️📈

🔥 This Week on Worldwide Markets Good things are happening in South Africa 🇿🇦, bubble-watching on global markets 🎈, fresh ETF listings from Ninety One 📊, strong local results (Astral 🐔, WeBuyCars 🚗, Ninety One 💼), and the Year-End Power Hour opens for bookings 🎤✨.

🎈 Bubble Talk: When Does It Pop? Guest Insight: Citigroup's Dirk Willer (via Odd Lots podcast) Definition: A bubble = asset prices 2 standard deviations above the 1-year average.

His exit rule: ➡️ Identify the drivers — the Magnificent 7 (Alphabet, Tesla, Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Meta). ➡️ The bubble pops when 2 of the 7 fall below their 200-day EMA 📉.

Current Status: * Meta: 12% below the 200-day ❗ * Microsoft: +5.4% above * Amazon: +6.5% above * Others still safely above.

👉 So we're halfway to bubble-popping territory. 👉 But: bubbles make money on the way up — timing the exit is the key.

Fun fact: Alphabet has negative net debt (more cash than debt) 💰.

📊 Ninety One Lists Two Actively Managed Income ETFs Two new AMETFs hit the JSE:

🇿🇦 91DINC (Local Income ETF) * Quarterly dividends * TER: ~0.25% (incl VAT) * Tax-free account eligible * ~20-year unit trust track record

🌍 91GINC (Global Income ETF) * Accumulating (rolls up dividends) * ~9% USD yield target * Pays in ZAR on the JSE * ~4.5% current USD yield

Full explainer webcast here 🎥.

🇿🇦 Good Things Happening in South Africa Yes, things are still tough — but several green shoots 🌱:

1️⃣ Greylist Exit SA officially removed — major reputational win ✔️.

2️⃣ Medium-term Budget Positives * Debt trajectory stabilising (may not hit 80%). * Primary budget surplus — only ~6 countries globally manage this. * Bond yields down ≈2%, reducing future borrowing costs. * Precious metals boom boosting revenue 🪙⬆️.

3️⃣ New Inflation Target * Formalised 3% target, with a 2–4% band 🎯. * Helps competitiveness for exporters like citrus 🍊.

4️⃣ MPC Outlook * Inflation at 3.4% — within band * Simon expects a rate cut on Thursday ✂️💸.

5️⃣ Credit Rating Upgrade S&P: Upgraded SA from 3-notches Junk → 2-notches Junk.

First upgrade in 16 years ⭐
Positive outlook — another upgrade possible.

Moody's review coming in December.

6️⃣ Load Shedding Gone (for now) * Effectively no load shedding for months ⚡😊. * Operation Vulindlela turning to Transnet next 🚢.

7️⃣ GNU Functioning Smoothly * Budget passed without drama * Coalition politics fading into the background — exactly where they should be.

⚠️ But:

Chronic unemployment (31%+) 😔
Inequality, poverty, crime remain severe issues → Growth is the only way to tackle these sustainably.

🎤 Year-End Power Hour — Book Now! Theme: Position Your Portfolio for 2026

Limited in-person seats
Webcast available
Simon reviews last year's predictions (and mocks himself 🤣)
Then looks at 2026: gold, rand, upgrades, tariffs, etc.

👉 Book here

📈 Company Results Round-Up 🐔 Astral Foods A horror first half… turned around:

What improved:

Avian flu mostly gone; vaccination up to 30%
Power issues stabilised
Independent water supply
Yellow maize prices lower 🌽⬇️
Pricing back to Dec 2023 levels

Outlook: CEO Gary Arnold expects a strong FY to Sept 2025. More upside if maize stays low.

🚗 WeBuyCars Trading update spooked the market — PE dropped from mid-20s → high teens.

Pressures:

Cheap new Chinese cars (R300k range) compete aggressively 🇨🇳
Slower earnings growth (~mid-teens)

Their response:

Lower buying prices in segments competing with Chinese brands
Future tailwind: cheap Chinese cars will enter second-hand market soon
Record 16,000 monthly sales
Scale still growing

Valuation: Simon sees value emerging in the low-40s 👀.

💼 Ninety One (Asset Manager) * Strong numbers; bull markets = good for AUM * Market sold it off (priced for perfection?) * PE ~11, DY ~6% — cheap metrics * Analysts: 2 buys, 2 holds, 1 strong sell * Price target avg ≈ R47.34 (around current price)

🏛️ Coronation * Last year's SARS case win inflated the base → No repeat special dividends → Lower YoY numbers expected.

💱 Rand & Commodities 🇿🇦 Rand * Broke below 17/USD last week (first time since early 2023) * Now back around 17.20 * Trend still strengthening — more in the Year-End Power Hour.

🪙 Gold * Holding firm, not running * Key levels:

+ Support: ~R39,20
+ Risk: Lower highs + lower lows if it breaks

Currently steady around R4,050.

📉 Markets & Crypto * S&P drawdown: ~3.5–4% * Nasdaq: ~5–5.5% → Much panic for not much movement 🤷‍♂️.

₿ Bitcoin * Looking rough under R90,000

⚙️ Nvidia Earnings — Wednesday A major market catalyst. Bad numbers could turn sentiment quickly.

🔭 Coming Up Next Week Simon looks at JSE top performers over the last 10 years 📈 (Spoiler: several gold miners… but almost all gains from the last year.)

Then it's December wrap-ups → and back in January.

Simon Brown

I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

Worldwide Markets – Episode 656 (12 November)

Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets and Shyft – the global money app that puts travel, shopping, payments and investments in the palm of your hand 🌍💸

1) JSE Under Pressure 🏛️⚖️ Two issues in the spotlight:

a) Competition Commission Complaint A2X alleges JSE is being anti-competitive around BDA & settlement. This could have a long regulatory process. No quick outcomes expected.

b) Matengu Allegations Matengu alleges share price manipulation and claims to have emails implicating JSE directors.

JSE has fired back and asked: Produce the emails.
There is also a clear seller overhang (ex-director wanting out), which explains the price pressure more plausibly.

Takeaway: Overhang selling often looks like manipulation. But without proof, it's just selling pressure.

2) Should We Scrap SENS Announcements & HEPS? 🤔📰 The JSE is consulting on two potential changes:

Reduce some SENS announcements (e.g., administrative ETF notices, floating rate resets, etc.)
Possibly remove HEPS (Headline Earnings Per Share)

Simon's view: 🚫 Do not remove HEPS. HEPS is invaluable as an adjusted earnings measure, especially in SA where one-off corporate events are common. The process cost argument doesn't justify removing a critical metric.

4) Don't Fight the Trend 🟢📈 Two strong trends right now:

a) Gold 🥇 * Back above $4,100/oz after two brief red weeks. * Long-term trend still strongly up. * No point trying to call tops – enjoy the trend while it runs.

b) Rand 🇿🇦💪 * Strengthening since the "liberation blowout" in April (~19.90). * Now around R17.14 – and trend still down (strengthening). * This is not just USD weakness. * Big inflows into SA bonds + stronger commodity prices supporting.

Next key level: R17 → If broken, expect move to low R15s.

5) Results Round-Up 📊💼 Company Sector Key Takeaways Outlook Stor-Age* REIT / Self-storage SA strong, UK okay. Trading near NAV (R17.77). Yield ~7%. Fairly valued, solid operator. Premier Group Bread, food manufacturing Revenue +6%, HEPS +27%. Efficiency gains + declining input costs. Not cheap, but high quality compounder. GE Aerospace (formerly General Electric) Aviation Engines & Service 75% of commercial planes use GE turbines. Service business = high margin recurring revenue. Trend beneficiary as global travel grows. Expensive, but maybe deserved. 6) KAP (PG Bison, UniTrans, beds, auto aftermarket) 🛏️🚚🛠️ * Earnings slump → PE looked blown out, but forward expectations show return to single-digit PE once capex is absorbed. * Small-caps remain deeply unloved. * Worth watching, but needs a catalyst.

7) Gold Miners – Pick Your Favourite ⛏️✨ If gold keeps running, most producers will make serious money.

Simon's preferences:

AngloGold Ashanti* (ANG) – strong price action, holding trends well.
Pan African (PAN) – up 7x since Oct 2022.

Others:

Harmony – now has meaningful copper exposure.
Sibanye* – gold + PGMs.

ETF option: Satrix RESI* – doubled this year (helped heavily by gold).

⏳ How long to hold? While gold trend remains intact.

Events & Dates 🗓️ * Monday 17 November @ 10:00 – 91 Income ETFs webcast Book: justonelap.com/events * Friday 8 December – Final Power Hour: "Position Your Portfolio for 2026" Bookings open next week.

Simon Brown

I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🌍 Worldwide Markets – Episode 655

Date: 5 November Host: Simon Brown Powered by: Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft – the global money app for travel, payments & investing.

🎙️ This Week's Big Questions * When will markets crash? 🤯📉 * Will we finally get a sovereign ratings upgrade? 🇿🇦🔼 * Optasia* lists… but no IPO fireworks 💼🔔 * SA vehicle sales accelerate again 🚗📈

🚀 Shyft Migration Update If you are an OST/Webtrader/ASI client — but have not yet been notified about migrating to Shyft — that simply means your group is scheduled for 2026, once remaining features roll out. 🔗 Watch the full Power Hour explainer:

🔔 Optasia* Listing – A Calm Debut * IPO priced at R19 * Day 1: Opened R20.75 → Closed R19.38 (≈ +2% on a -2% market day) * No big pop → but not a failure * Existing shareholders + exec team locked in for 185–360 days * Market consensus sees R25–R26 within 2–3 years if growth executes

Simon's stance: ✔️ Applied → got only 14% allocation ✔️ Holding ✔️ Looking to build the position over time

🚗 SA Vehicle Sales – Strong Again October sales: 55,960 units ➡️ Best October since 2014 📈 Driven partly by car rental fleets restocking for the holiday season ✅ Still good news for motor retailers

🇿🇦 Potential Sovereign Ratings Upgrade? * SA remains junk with Moody's, Fitch & S&P Global * Outlooks have shifted flat → positive * S&P may consider upgrade in November * MTBPS next week: Expected to show higher-than-budgeted tax revenue → Thanks to booming gold & PGM prices ⚒️💰

But… 💬 Citadel's Maarten Ackerman: "Not so fast — upgrade may still take time."

Key stat: Foreigners purchased the most SA government bonds (Aug–Sep) since records began in 1994 — even while we remain junk.

🪙 Gold – Consolidating at $3,950–$4,050 * Price: $3,964 at recording * Analyst view (Petri Redelinghuys from Herenya Capital Advisors): → Good entry zone for those who missed the earlier run * Chart setup: Sideways consolidation, waiting for next leg

🌏 China–US Trade "Peace"? * Trump offers tariff cuts on fentanyl ingredients * China offers:

+ Soybean purchases 🌱 (they buy 50% of global supply)
+ Lifting rare earth export restrictions for 1 year 🧲

Reality: China still holds the real leverage here.

📉 Market Crash Fears – Let's Talk About It ✔️ Will markets crash? Yes. Guaranteed. Always have. Always will.

❓ When? Nobody knows. Not even the clever people.

🧱 Bull markets climb a wall of worry. There are always scary headlines.

🎯 Key Takeaways * Being in cash waiting for the crash is costly. * Even when crashes happen, markets often do not fall back to where you sold. * Timing the bottom is even harder. * If you're worried → trim, rebalance, don't go 100% cash.

Stats (S&P 500 historical):

Market Type Average Length Average Move Bull Market 🟢 5.3 years +254% Bear Market 🔴 1 year -31% Conclusion: Staying invested wins — unless you're already drawing retirement income.

🏁 Final Thoughts * Markets will crash — we just don't know when * Keep investing, keep rebalancing, don't try to be clever * And remember: cash is a drag over the long term

Simon Brown

I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🌍 World Wide Markets Ep. 654 — 29 October 2025

🎙️ "Gold took us up … and gold will take us down."

🪙 Gold Takes the JSE for a Ride * Gold led the JSE to record highs — and now it's leading it back down. * Year-to-date returns: + Gold +49 %, Harmony +87 %, Pan African +126 %, DRD +150 %, Gold Fields +162 %, AngloGold Ashanti* +167 %! + Excluding dividends! * Simon notes clear support around $3,600-3,800, with further downside likely. * The Top 40 is up ~38 % YTD, but the Resources Index (Resi) is +93 % — remove that, and the market's ~20 %. * Translation: half this year's gains came from gold ⛏️. When gold falls, the JSE will feel it. * Simon spots a "kangaroo-tail" reversal candle — 10 straight green months is unprecedented 📉. * Expect short-term weakness but the long-term gold story isn't over — deficits, inflation, and de-dollarization keep the bull case alive 💰. * For those who "missed" gold, this pullback may be your chance — scale in slowly rather than catching the knife 🪙⚖️.

Top40 Monthly chart 2025

💡 Optasia IPO Extended * Fintech AI & machine-learning listing — application deadline extended to Thursday 30 Oct (lunchtime). * Simon applied after FirstRand took a 20.1 % stake at R 19, top of the range 💼. * Despite muted enthusiasm from guests on Stock Watch, the institutional interest makes it intriguing 🤖📊. * Allocation risk remains — expect to receive only a fraction 🎟️.

🚗 WeBuyCars: Market Hits the Brakes * Trading update disappointed; share price −13.5 %. * HEPS: 222 – 226 c vs ~240 c consensus ➡️ P/E ≈ 20 ("fair"). * Was pricey at ~30× earnings, now more realistic ⚖️. * Chinese car imports may start competing at lower price points 🇨🇳 → potential pressure on used-car margins. * Still, for those who missed the run, this could be a re-entry point 🚘.

🏠 Balwin Results * Decent set of numbers — growth across Western Cape, KZN and Gauteng. * No dividend 💧 → debt reduction focus. * Sector tailwinds: lower rates + improving bond approvals (Uber = Ooba). * Strong demand for mid-tier and affordable housing 🏗️. * Simon holds Calgro M3* in the same space.

⛏️ Commodities & PGMs Holding Up * Anglo American & Kumba raise guidance 👍 → stronger pricing and better rail flow. * Valtera still recovering from floods, but higher PGM prices help. * Platinum breakout ⚙️ $ 1 550 + after a decade range bound 850 – 1 100. * Palladium rebounding too ( $ 1 700 resistance ). * Trend: higher highs and higher lows 📈.

🏪 Pick n Pay: Slow Road to Recovery * Still loss-making but loss shrinking 📉. * Adjusting for Boxer, cash and tax deferrals → valuation ≈ –R 3 billion (cheap on paper). * Sean Summers cautious: recovery will be slower than hoped. * Needs to win market share from Shoprite* – a tough battle 🛒🆚.

🇨🇳🇺🇸 US-China Trade & Tariffs * Possible trade deal emerging 🎯 — China may buy soybeans, ease rare-earth curbs. * Perception = bullish for equities, bearish for gold (short term). * US markets closing at record highs 📈 — a deal would supercharge them. * Meanwhile, US Supreme Court to decide whether Trump can impose tariffs unilaterally. + Lower court said no → prediction markets expect he'll lose ⚖️. + Outcome could remove tariffs entirely – massive implications for trade and exporters. + Retroactive refunds possible? Unclear 💵❓

🏦 Shift Migration Update * Standard Bank Online Share Trading, AutoShare Invest and WebTrader are migrating to the Shyft app 📲. * Phase 2 migration this week → details at justonelap.com/powerhour. * If you haven't been contacted, your turn comes in 2026 (probably after March). * Shift offers cheapest Forex rates and multi-asset access globally 🌍💳.

💬 Final Thought "Gold gave us the party — and now it's calling last rounds." Expect volatility, opportunities, and reversals — but don't lose the big picture.

Simon Brown 🎧 Worldwide Markets Ep. 654 | Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & Shyft 💙 Look after yourself — and someone else too.

Simon Brown

I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

Worldwide Markets Ep. 653 – Gold Crashes, Markets Burn, and Optasia's JSE Listing 🎙️ Hosted by Simon Brown 📅 Recorded: Tuesday, 21 October 2025 📈 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets, Retail & Shyft – The global money app that puts travel, shopping, payments and investments in the palm of your hand.

💥 Local Markets Crushed A brutal day on the JSE as the market closed down 2.5%, with resources tumbling 7.8% despite a steady rand (R17.43).

Gold miners collapsed: Implats & Sibanye -10%, Gold Fields & Harmony -9%, AngloGold* -8%.
PGMs also fell hard: Northam & Impala down over 7%.
Retail pain: TFG dropped a shocking 16.6% after a poor trading update, dragging down Pepkor, Mr Price, and even WeBuyCars.
U.S. markets were red but only mildly so — calm compared to SA's bloodbath.

🪙 Gold: After 9 Green Weeks, the Pullback Arrives Gold finally broke its 10-week winning streak, plunging from $4,378 to $4,122 — a $250 drop in two days 😬

Simon notes this was inevitable after nine straight weeks of gains.
Likely short-term support around $3,950–$4,000, with potential consolidation below $4,000.
Despite the scare, the Satrix Resi is still up over 100% for 2025. 💡 Lesson: even in a bull run, sharp corrections are part of the journey.

🧠 Optasia: AI Fintech Listing on the JSE A major new listing — Optasia (code: OPA) — is set to debut 3 November. Valued at around R20–25 billion, it's one of the largest fintech listings in years.

Key Facts: * Business: Micro-loans & airtime credit to the unbanked and underbanked. * Reach: 38 markets (Africa, Asia, Middle East, Europe). * Scale:

+ 120 million customers/month
+ 32 million loans/day
+ $13m total daily loan value

Average loan: $5 (microfinance) and $0.25 (airtime credit)
Defaults: impressively low at 1.14% 💪
Backers: Standard Bank, RMB, EcoBank, MTN, Vodacom, Airtel, Zain, and more.
Listing price range: R15.50–R19.00 per share.
Lockup: 180 days for sellers, 365 for directors.
Existing shareholder exit: Ethos Capital (EPE) partially selling down.

Simon's Take 🎯 * Solid business with real revenue and strong growth (≈90% YoY in 2025H1). * But… valuation not cheap (PE ≈ mid-20s). * Concerns over allocation uncertainty and currency/regulatory risks in frontier markets. * 💬 Verdict: "I'm not applying — great business, fair valuation, but not compelling enough."

🚗 CMH* (Combined Motor Holdings): Excellent Results & Share Buyback Vehicle sales hit their highest levels since 2015, and CMH delivered stellar numbers 🚙💨

Headline earnings: +25%
No dividend this time, but a 15% share buyback instead.
Strong exposure to Indian & Chinese brands (nearly 50% of sales) plus Suzuki, now SA's #2 brand.
Legacy luxury brands are struggling.
Historic returns:
- Share price last decade: 12%
- Dividend yield last decade: ~10%
- Combined ≈ 22% annual shareholder return over the past decade! 📊

The Twist Founder Jeb McIntosh (79) may be looking to gradually exit — Simon suspects the buyback could facilitate this. Still, Simon's holding: "I'm not selling — unless they offer me a crazy price."

🏦 Upcoming Event: Standard Bank Client Migration 📢 Important for OST, WebTrader, and AutoShare Invest clients: Standard Bank is migrating investment clients to Shift. Join Simon Brown and Adish from Standard Bank on Tuesday, 28 October, 5:30 PM (Rosebank or Webcast). 🔗 Register at justonelap.com/events

💬 Final Thoughts Markets can be messy, but knowledge is power. Simon wraps up with his usual reminder:

"Look after yourself — and if you can, look after somebody else too." ❤️

🔑 Episode Summary * 🪙 Gold's epic run ends with a sharp pullback. * 📉 JSE hammered by resources & retailers. * 🤖 Optasia brings fintech AI excitement to the JSE. * 🚗 CMH delivers strong results and a massive buyback. * 🏦 Big changes coming for Standard Bank investing clients.

Simon Brown

I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🎙️ Worldwide Markets Ep. 652 — "Dividends, Gold, and Gearing Gone Wild" 📅 15 October 2025 | Hosted by Simon Brown | Powered by Standard Bank SHYFT

🪙 Gold Rush Continues Gold is unstoppable! 🚀 Now trading above R4,100/oz, the yellow metal has clocked eight consecutive green weeks — the longest winning streak since early 2024.

Simon digs into:

📈 Historical patterns since the pandemic: jump → consolidate → jump again
🏦 Central banks as persistent buyers — but what happens if they ever stop?
🤔 With gold having doubled in three years, central banks' reserves are now worth far more — will they slow purchases?

Gold weekly chart

🧬 ASP Isotopes & the Renegen* Deal 🔥 The small-cap buzz continues!

ASP Isotopes (📊 JSE-listed) soared 34% after being added to a Morgan Stanley National Security Index, thanks to its defense-related tech.

🧪 ASP will acquire Renegen at a ratio of 0.09i ASP shares per Renegen share.
📈 The stock was badly mispriced at listing, now settling into realistic levels.
🧠 Simon's take: it's partly a meme stock, but still delivering products and momentum.

🌍 Tariff Turmoil & Trump Tactics 🗞️ Trump shocked markets promising 100% tariffs on China, triggering a:

📉 2% drop on the S&P 500
📉 3% drop on the Nasdaq …before walking it all back two days later. Classic "art of the deal." 🎭 💬 China's latest export data (+8.4% YoY) shows resilience, finding new global buyers despite tensions.

💥 Crypto Carnage: Over-Geared Traders Wiped Out 📉 Bitcoin slid 10%, altcoins dropped 20–50% — and many over leveraged traders got liquidated. Simon's tough love 💬:

"If a 10% move wipes you out, you're not trading — you're gambling." 🎲

He explains gearing simply:

💰 10× gearing = a 10% drop → total wipe out.
💰 50× gearing = just a 2% drop → goodbye capital.
Crypto's already volatile — no need for extra leverage.

💸 JSE Large Caps: Great Dividend Yields Following last week's small-cap value picks, Simon scans big JSE names offering strong income 📊:

🏦 Banks * Nedbank (9%) – solid and cheap. * ABSA (8%) – attractive and trading below NAV. * Standard Bank (7%) – quality but pricier. * FirstRand (5.2%) – premium quality, lower yield. * Investec (6.5%) – decent, but less excitement.

🏭 Industrials & Commodities * Tungela (50%) – monster yield, but coal outlook uncertain. * Omnia (special dividend) – mixed on chemicals. * AVI (9%) – steady margins, strong chart 📊. * Tiger Brands (7%) – turnaround story under new management. * Reunert – defense & cabling play; value emerging.

🏠 Property * Equites, Growthpoint, Fairvest, Hyprop, Resilient – 6–8% yields, but NAV discounts vary.

🎰 Leisure & Retail * Sun International (10%) – betting becoming core growth area 🎲 * Mr Price (4%) – comeback potential. * Woolies (2.5%) – still struggling with fashion 👗 * Shoprite (2.7%) – premium, low yield.

💼 Asset Managers * Old Mutual (9%), Coronation (8%), Sygnia – benefit from rising markets. * Alexander Forbes – solid income play.

📡 Telcos & Others * Telkom – undervalued, post-Swiftnet debt cut, potential MTN suitor 📶 * Grindrod – ports booming, Africa trade tailwinds 🌍 * Bitvest (4%) – cash generative, debt manageable, chart support at R200.

🧾 Key Takeaways ✅ Gold's bull market still strong — no legs down yet. ✅ ASP Isotopes & Renegen merger heating up. ✅ Beware leverage — crypto is wild enough. ✅ Dividend stocks offering serious income on the JSE. ✅ Buffett Power Hour this Thursday — don't miss it! 💼✨

🎧 Worldwide Markets is powered by Standard Bank Global Markets, Retail & SHYFT — 💳 The global money app for travel, shopping, payments, and investments, with the lowest Forex rates.

👉 Subscribe to Worldwide Markets wherever you get your podcasts. 💬 Follow Simon on Twitter/X: @SimonPB

Simon Brown

I hold ungeared positions.

All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order

🎙️ Worldwide Markets Ep. 651 — “Value on the JSE? We Find the Cheapest Shares” (8 October 2025)

📅 Recorded Tuesday afternoon | Powered by Standard Bank & SHYFT

💡 Episode Overview This week Simon Brown digs into value on the JSE — where the cheapest shares might be hiding 👀. He also unpacks:

The Purple Group* pullback 🟣
ETF returns so far in 2025 📈 (spoiler: it’s been a wild year!)
Upcoming Standard Bank Power Hour: Investing Like Warren Buffett 🧠

🟣 Purple Group: Pullback or Panic? * After a huge rally to R2.74, Purple Group has pulled back — but no need to panic. * Likely to find support around R2.10, with upside targets around R3.50 💪. * Expecting strong trading updates by late October or early November. * With markets, gold, crypto, and offshore assets all flying, Purple should benefit as trading volumes rise.

📊 2025 ETF Returns — A Booming Year Simon’s recent ETF analysis shows a banner year for SA ETFs (excluding dividends): 🏆 Top Performers:

Satrix RESI* +118% 🪨
Satrix Shariah +69% 🌙 (thanks to heavy gold exposure)
10X Top 20, Rafi 40*, Gold ETFs, SWIX, and EasyETFs Global Equity (Active) all strong 📈

📉 Laggards:

Signia Health Innovation −9.2% 🧬
India ETF −8.7% 🇮🇳
Global Bonds & Healthcare ETFs slightly negative

🪙 Overall takeaway: 2025 is a golden year — literally and figuratively.

💸 Value Hunt: The Cheapest Shares on the JSE Simon’s criteria for spotting value gems 💎:

PE ratio: 0–10 (profitable companies only)
Dividend yield: >0.01% (sign of free cash flow)
Price-to-book:

🌍 Worldwide Markets Episode 650 – 1 October 2025

Hosted by Simon Brown Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & the Shyft Global Money App 💳🌐

🔑 Key Topics This Week 📈 Purple Group* & EasyEquities

Purple Group share price up ~150% this year 🚀
Results driven by non-revenue income (inactivity fees & loyalty program)
Strong client acquisition via Capitec & Discovery Bank partnerships 🏦
Trading volumes soaring in a bullish market 💹

Purple Group | YTD to close 29 Sep 25

💰 Top 40 hits 100,000

Thanks to gold miners & PGMs ⛏️
AngloGold Ashanti* up nearly 200% in 2025 ✨
Bitcoin also at record highs: $110k – $115k ₿

🇿🇦 Bull case for SA Inc.

Eskom turns profit ⚡, load shedding largely behind us
FAFTA gray list exit expected late October ✅
Stronger rand & softer oil price supporting consumers ⛽
Lower inflation, potential rate cuts in the US vs. SA rates hold 💵
Bond yields easing = cheaper government borrowing 💸

🛒 Boxer trading update

Like-for-like sales up 5.3%, turnover +13.9% 📊
EPS guidance strong but valuation looks pricey vs. Shoprite* 🍏

🤖 Nvidia’s* self-dealing investments

Billions poured into OpenAI, CoreWeave & Mistral 🧠
Risks of dot-com style "self-dealing" re-emerging ⚠️
Simon remains a cautious Nvidia shareholder

📉 Global delistings trend

JSE listings halved over 20 years 📉
US market also down from 8,000+ to ~4,000 listings
Private equity & venture capital keep firms private longer ⏳

📅 Upcoming Event Standard Bank Power Hour – Warren Buffett: Blueprint for a Lifetime of Investing 🦫💡 🗓️ 16 October, 17:30 SAST 📍 Rosebank, Johannesburg (in-person & webcast)

📝 Simon’s Notes * Obsidian vs Evernote: experimenting with second-brain systems 📚🧠 * Thanks for all listener feedback 🙏

🎙️ Closing 10 more episodes left before Simon’s year-end break ✈️ “Look after yourself, and if you can, look after somebody else too.” ❤️

Simon Brown

I hold ungeared positions.

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🌍 Worldwide Markets Ep. 649 – Building a Second Brain 🧠✨

Recorded on 24 September 2025 (from the beach!) – Hosted by Simon Brown

This week, Simon takes a break from market talk 📉📈 to explore something equally powerful: how to manage the flood of data and information we face every day. Instead of focusing on stocks, currencies, or central banks, he dives into the idea of creating a "second brain" — a system to capture, organize, and use knowledge effectively.

🔑 Episode Highlights * 🧠 Brains are great at decisions – quick choices like what to eat or which route to take. But storing and retrieving data? Not so much. * ✍️ Handwritten notes win – research shows writing helps memory more than typing. Simon shares how digital handwritten notes improve recall. * 📅 Calendars as to-do lists – forget endless apps. Simon’s hack: putting everything (from work deadlines to buying milk 🥛 & whiskey 🥃) in his calendar for one central source of truth. * 📚 Building a Second Brain (by Tiago Forte) – the PARA + CODE framework that inspired Simon’s system.

🗂️ PARA Framework * P – Projects 🎯: Active tasks (e.g. upcoming presentations, podcast prep). * A – Areas 🌐: Broader ongoing themes (like camping 🏕️ or tech gadgets 📸). * R – Resources 📖: Interesting but general material worth saving. * A – Archive 📦: Where used or finished items end up.

🔄 CODE Method * C – Capture 📸: Snap photos, clip articles, jot notes into Evernote. * O – Organize 🗃️: Sort into PARA a few times a week. * D – Distill 💡: Pull out the key ideas & insights. * E – Express 🗣️: Use the information for podcasts, presentations, articles, or even shopping lists 🛒.

🛠️ Tools Simon Uses * Evernote 📱💻: Clunky but everywhere (phone, laptop, e-reader, iPad). Paid version makes it work seamlessly. * Tried but moved on: Obsidian (too complex), Notion (powerful but not his fit), Raindrop.io (good for bookmarking but limited).

🎯 Why it Works ✔️ Frees up mental space – no more stressing about remembering. ✔️ Keeps data accessible & actionable. ✔️ Turns chaos (screenshots, random notes, cluttered camera rolls) into a system. ✔️ Supports Simon’s creative and teaching work.

🙌 Your Turn Simon invites listeners to share their hacks: 👉 How do you manage the constant stream of info? 👉 Do you have your own “second brain” system?

Send us your thoughts, tools, and strategies 💬.

Simon Brown

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💡 Worldwide Markets is powered by Standard Bank Global Markets and Shyft – the global money app for travel, shopping, payments, and investments with the best forex rates anytime, anywhere. 🌍💳

🌍 World Wide Markets Ep. 648 – Cash-Rich Companies, Fed Cuts & China’s Housing Woes

Host: Simon Brown Date: 17 September 2025

📉 China’s Housing Market * New house prices fell 2.5% YoY – still negative since May 2022. * Bottomed in October 2023 (-5.9%) and now trending upward. * Reflects weak Chinese consumer confidence, similar to South Africa 🇨🇳🇿🇦. * Evergrande’s collapse still casts a shadow.

Chinese New Home index YonY

🏦 Central Banks in Focus FOMC (US): Decision due Wednesday evening.

Market expects 25bps cut, with more cuts likely in Oct & Dec.
US unemployment says “cut”, inflation says “don’t cut” – a real policy squeeze.
Trump pushing for FOMC shake-up & questioning quarterly reporting 📊.

MPC (SA): Decision Thursday.

Inflation at 3.5%, close to target.
Mixed economist views: some say no cuts until 2027, others see cuts sooner.
Fed cuts could influence SARB moves via rand 💵➡️🇿🇦.

📊 Trump vs. Quarterly Results * Trump suggests companies report every six months instead of quarterly. * Argument: reduces costs and red tape. * Counterpoint: US market’s strength lies in transparency & discipline from frequent reporting. * Unlikely to change, but sparks debate on market “exceptionalism” 🇺🇸.

🏢 Three Stocks With More Cash & Investments Than Market Cap 1. 📰 Caxton (JSE:CAT)

💰 Cash: R3bn + R1.3bn stake in Mpact.
Market cap: R4.4bn → stock “almost free” if stripped for parts.
Dividend payer, PE \~7, yield \~5%.
Not flashy, but offers Buffett-style margin of safety.
🚚 Supergroup (JSE:SPG)
💰 Cash: R5.2bn, but liabilities of R9.5bn linked to assets held for sale.
Supply chain, dealerships, fleet solutions.
Debt-heavy, UK exposure risky 🇬🇧.
Verdict: less attractive vs. Caxton.
🛒 Pick n Pay (JSE:PIK)
Owns 65.6% of Boxer → worth \~R20bn.
Plus R5bn cash, R1bn debt, R2.8bn deferred tax asset.
Market cap \~R20bn → potential undervaluation.
PE ugly now, but 2027/28 earnings growth could re-rate it.
Selling down Boxer stake could unlock value.

⚒️ Mining & M&A Anglo American buying Teck Resources (Canada, copper focus).

- Increases copper weighting to \~⅔ of revenue.
Head office shifting to Toronto 🇨🇦.
Deal raises takeover questions – could BHP* come back for Anglo?

🇨🇳 Nvidia vs. China * China says Nvidia violated anti-monopoly laws (linked to 2020 acquisition). * Also probing Texas Instruments for “dumping”. * Comes as US-China trade talks continue, TikTok deadline looms ⏳. * Possible bargaining chip in ongoing negotiations. * Simon still holds Nvidia.

🧠 Next Week: Second Brain Special Simon explains how to build & use a “second brain” for decision-making & information management. Because our brains are great at decisions 🧠✔️ … but terrible at remembering ❌.

👉 Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets & SHYFT – The global money app for forex, travel, shopping, payments & investments.

Simon Brown

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🌍 Worldwide Markets – Episode 647 (9 Sept 2024)

This week on Worldwide Markets, Simon Brown dives into global markets, tech giants, crypto shifts, commodities, and currencies. Recorded a day early before heading to Leaderex, here’s what’s moving markets right now. Powered by Standard Bank and Shyft. 💳🌐

📊 US Jobs & Rate Cuts * US jobs report was a mixed bag → +22k jobs, but mostly in healthcare. * June revised downward to negative, July slightly up. * Unemployment steady at 4.3%. * Market expectation: Fed to cut rates next week after Jackson Hole signals. * SA MPC unlikely to cut as inflation edges higher at 3.5%.

🔍 Alphabet (Google) Court Cases Alphabet gets a gentle slap on the wrist in antitrust cases. Remedies minimal → no spin-offs of Chrome/Android, search payments (Apple $20bn/year, Firefox $750m) remain. Stock ran to **all-time highs 🚀 (PE still below historical mean). Another case pending on ad dominance – possible spinoffs (YouTube, DoubleClick?) could unlock hidden value.

₿ AltVest → African Bitcoin Corporation * AltVest rebrands to African Bitcoin Corporation (ABC). * Pivot: becoming a Bitcoin treasury company like MicroStrategy. * Raising R11m at R11/share (vs. current ±R5). Proceeds to fund name change + Bitcoin buys. * Ambition: raise R210m (maybe even $210m?) in tranches. * Risky bet → doubling down on volatile BTC exposure. ⚡

🛢️ Oil & Sasol * OPEC+ to increase output ~200k barrels/day. * Saudi Arabia aims for market share → oil likely heading to $60. * Sasol still strong 💪 → potential run to R135–R140 before Simon trims profits.

💡 ASML & Mistral (AI) * Rumours: Dutch chip giant ASML investing \$1.5bn in French AI startup Mistral. * ASML has cash $8.5bn, but risks blurring lines by funding customers’ ecosystem. * Simon skeptical: “Picking AI winners this early is messy.”

📈 Bull Market Still Running SA Top 40 at record highs (95k+). Possible push to 100k points this month. “This is still a bull market until it’s not.” 🐂🔥

🥇 Precious Metals * Gold → holding gains, bullish above \$3,450. * Platinum & Palladium → strong breakouts, holding support. * Silver → resilient above \$40. * Precious metals complex all looking firm. ✨

💵 Rand & Global Trade * Rand currently at R17.55, with potential to test R17.00 if US cuts rates. * Africa-China trade up 25% to $122bn → filling void left by US. 🇨🇳🤝🌍

🇺🇸 Trump’s Tariff Exemptions Trump exempts; uranium, tungsten, graphite, gold, bullion from tariffs. Good news for SA resources sector.

🎙️ Final Thoughts * Markets remain bullish, metals are shining, oil likely weaker, and crypto experiments continue. * If you’re at Leaderex, come say hi 👋. * Powered by Standard Bank & Shyft – the global money app for payments, travel, and investing.

Simon Brown

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ðŸŒ Worldwide Markets Ep. 646 – 3 September 2025

ðŸŽ™ï¸ Hosted by Simon Brown

Powered by Standard Bank & Shyft, the global money app ðŸ’³ðŸŒ

ðŸ“ˆ Key Topics This Week ðŸŒ Emerging Markets: 20 Years of Poor Returns

EM ETFs have underperformed vs. the US and gold

20-year CAGR:

ðŸ“Š NASDAQ: +1,400% (14.5% CAGR)

ðŸŸ¡ Gold: +700% (10.9% CAGR)

ðŸ‡ºðŸ‡¸ S&P 500: +440% (8.7% CAGR)

ðŸŒ Emerging Markets: +193% (5.5% CAGR)

BRIC dream (Brazil, Russia, India, China) never delivered ðŸ’

Headwinds: financial crises, currency depreciation ðŸ’¸, weaker governance ðŸ“‰

ðŸŸ¡ Gold & âšª Silver Running Gold futures hit $3,560/oz ðŸš€

Central banks now hold more gold than US Treasuries

Silver back above $40, near 2011 highs

Stagflation worries (low growth, high inflation, debt) → gold demand surges

Gold weekly chart | 02 September 2025

ðŸ›’ Shoprite* Results & 60/60 Growth Checkers 60/60 delivered R18.9bn revenue ðŸŽðŸ“¦

That’s nearly 20% of Checkers’ sales & close to Pick n Pay’s market cap

Strong results, inflation at just 2.3% âœ…

Stock price up ~5%

ðŸš— Record August Vehicle Sales

51,880 units sold, highest since Oct 2019

Brands leading:

ðŸš™ Toyota (13k+)

ðŸš— Suzuki (~6.5k)

ðŸ‡¨ðŸ‡³ Rising share from Chinese brands (GWM, Chery, JAC)

Trend: consumers keeping cars longer, turning to cheaper imports ðŸ·ï¸

ðŸ§ª ASP Isotopes JSE Listing Listed ahead of Renergen* takeover

Local pricing looks wildly inflated at R1,100 vs. realistic ~R165 ðŸ“‰

Very thin volumes; caution urged âš ï¸

ðŸŒ Geopolitics: New World Order India ðŸ¤ Russia ðŸ¤ China meeting – cooperation on energy, fertilizers, space & security

Growing shift away from USD towards RMB in oil settlement

US power not gone yet, but cracks in global dominance showing ðŸ›ï¸

ðŸ”‘ Takeaways

EM equities have disappointed; US tech dominance continues ðŸ’»

Gold remains a hedge in uncertain times ðŸŸ¡

Shoprite Sixty60 is now a R20bn business ðŸšš

Car sales at record highs, boosted by affordable Chinese brands ðŸš˜

Watch out for weird valuations in new listings ðŸ‘€

Geopolitics shifting – 2025 could be a turning point ðŸŒ

ðŸ“Œ Next week’s episode will be late – Simon’s at LeaderX on Tuesday. Come say hi if you’re there! ðŸ™Œ

Simon Brown

I hold ungeared positions.

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📌 Key Themes This Week

📊 Naspers share split – AGM approves a 5-for-1 split to make shares more affordable for smaller investors.
💬 Jackson Hole update – Jerome Powell’s last appearance as Fed Chair, shifting focus from inflation to jobs. Markets pricing in September & December rate cuts with high certainty.
💸 Trump & the Fed – Trump fires Fed Governor Lisa Cook ❌ and pushes to pack the Fed with rate-cut friendly members.
🇺🇸 Intel stake – Trump administration takes a 10% stake in Intel via the Chips Act, raising questions about “state capitalism.”
📉 Dollar weakness – Dollar index slides, Rand strengthens to R17.44, risk-on sentiment in global markets.
💷 UK debt crisis – 30-year gilt yields at levels last seen in 1998 (5.6%). Mounting debt costs threaten stability.

📈 Company Results & Market Moves * 🏫 ADvTech*

+ Strong results: 5-year CAGR → Dividends +24%, Revenue +13%, EPS doubled.
+ Enrolments still growing vs. competitor Curro shrinking.
+ Expanding into tertiary education in Ghana 🇬🇭.
+ Solid valuation: PE ~15, dividend yield ~3%.

🚢 Grindrod
- Decent numbers, disposing businesses to strengthen balance sheet.
- Awarded 3rd-party rail access via Transnet 🚂.
- Cheap valuation: PE ~8, Price/Book ~1.
- 🛢️ Sasol
- Results stronger than expected: Free cash flow R12bn (up from R7bn).
- Stock rallied past R120, eyeing R140.
- Needs stronger chemical markets, higher oil & weaker Rand for tailwinds.
- ⚙️ Nvidia (results pending)
- Market eagerly awaiting numbers. Results due Wednesday aftermarket.
- 🪖 Rheinmetall
- German defence stock up +160% YTD on European defence demand.
- Valuations stretched (PE 89 vs. mean 23). Possible overheated trade.

🌐 Macro Watch * 📉 US inflation & rate cuts – Markets expect two cuts in 2024, possibly November too. Powell less worried about inflation at 2.5–3%. * 🏦 Tariffs & inflation – Spread over time, reducing immediate shock but sustaining price pressure. * 💵 Debt & inflation – Inflation helps deflate $30T US debt mountain faster. * 💷 UK bonds – Debt costs rising sharply, pushing the UK into deeper fiscal stress.

📌 Quick Hits * 📉 S&P 500 at 23x earnings – Historically, this leads to flat 10-year returns (±2%). * 💱 Dollar trend – Weakening outlook continues, aligning with Trump’s economic policy. * 🇩🇪 Rheinmetall boom – Defence spending pushes stock sky-high, but risks of overheating. * 📚 ETF database update – Now includes active ETFs 👉 justonelap.com/ETFdatabase. * 🎥 Power Hour – Live session Tuesday 17:30 SA time, replay available later.

🎙️ Host: Simon Brown 📅 Recorded: Tuesday 27 August 2024 💡 Powered by Standard Bank & Shyft app

👉 Markets are on a risk-on rally 🚀, but with high valuations, debt risks, and political interference at central banks, caution remains the watchword.

Simon Brown

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🌍 Worldwide Markets Ep. 644 – 20 August 2024

🎙️ Hosted by Simon Brown

This week’s episode dives into Buffett’s latest moves, Google’s iconic IPO, and big results from Standard Bank, MTN, and Sasol. Here’s what you need to know:

📈 Buffett Buys UnitedHealth – Should You Follow? * Berkshire Hathaway picked up UnitedHealth (UNH). * Stock has fallen from $600 → $308 due to federal investigations ⚖️. * On paper, valuation looks attractive: + Forward PE ~19 (below long-term average). + Price-to-book ~2.9 vs decade average of 4.9. * Analysts split: 2 sells, 5 holds, 12 buys, 6 strong buys. * ⚠️ Simon’s take: “Don’t blindly follow Buffett. Healthcare is a regulatory minefield. Use it as a starting point, not a buy signal.”

🩺 Healthcare Investing Alternatives * Johnson & Johnson* (JNJ) – more stable exposure. * Healthcare services & REITs (e.g. hospitals, medical equipment). * ETFs on JSE: + Satrix Healthcare Innovation ETF (STXHLT). + Signia’s healthcare exposure sits in their active funds. * Note: Active ETFs will soon be added to local databases ✅.

🏦 Standard Bank Results * ROE: 19.1% – huge number. * Forward PE: 8 (cheap vs historical 10.1). * Dividend yield: 6.6% 💰. * Price-to-book: 1.4 (in line with decade average). * Expanding strongly across Africa 🌍. * Simon: “Boring, quality portfolio stock. I like it, but waiting for cheaper entry near 240.”

Standard Bank | Weekly

📱 MTN Results * Headline numbers looked great due to base effects from currency collapses in Ghana 🇬🇭 & Nigeria 🇳🇬. * Market unimpressed: stock fell 8% 📉. * Still strong 1-year return: +77% (incl. dividends +83%). * Forward PE ~13.5 vs long-term 25 → appears undervalued. * Risks: exec churn, CAPEX-heavy, regulatory hurdles. * Simon: “Not a fan of telcos – data is just a utility.”

🛢️ Sasol Update * Stock bounced from R50 → R100. * Weak oil price outlook could hurt 📉. * Operations improving, second-half expected stronger. * Simon’s take: “Not a long-term hold. More of a trade: buy around R100, maybe ride it to R140, then get out.”

🔎 Google’s IPO Turns 21 🎂 * IPO’d in 2004 via Dutch Auction – gave retail investors equal footing vs institutions. * Raised $1.66bn at $85/share. * Today’s market cap ~ $2.5 trillion 🤯. * Return: ~8,000% since IPO 🚀. * Fun fact: for years, Domino’s Pizza IPO (same week) had similar returns 🍕 vs 🔍, but Google pulled ahead. * Regulatory cloud: pending US judgment in August could hit stock short term ⚖️ → Simon says: “If it falls, I’ll be buying.”

💡 Key Takeaways * Don’t just copy Buffett – do your homework 📝. * Healthcare remains risky but ETFs & REITs offer cleaner exposure. * Standard Bank looks solid, MTN looks risky, Sasol looks tradable. * Google’s IPO remains one of the best investments of all time – and could still offer value despite regulation headwinds.

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Simon Brown

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🇺🇸 US Inflation – Numbers come in softer than expected 📊, fuelling hopes for a September rate cut from the Fed 🏦.

⛽ Sasol trading update – PE under 3 😮, H2 profits looking stronger, and the market loving it (+9.7% 🚀).

💰 Share buybacks – Why US companies love them, the tax angle, and Apple’s massive \$100bn spree 🍏.

Apple out standing shares

🪙 Gold & the Resi10 index – Resource stocks roaring in 2024, +72.5% YTD 🤯, but will gold break out of its range?

Gold Weekly | 12 August 2025

🇨🇳 China trade surplus – Despite tariffs & tensions, it hits a record \$1.2 trillion 📦.

🖥️ Trump vs. Nvidia & AMD – AI chip sales to China now taxed at 15%, and Beijing warns against buying certain models 🤖.

📊 Tool – Just One Lap’s ETF Database is live! Filter by issuer, classification, tax-free status, and even search top holdings 🔍.

Powered by Standard Bank & Shyft – the global money app for travel, shopping, payments & investments 🌍.

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🎙️ Worldwide Markets – Episode 642 📅 Recorded: Tuesday, 5 August 💼 Host: Simon Brown 🌍 Powered by Standard Bank Shyft – The global money app for travel, shopping, payments & investing.

🔮 Market Highlights * 📈 Purple Group* rocks 🚀 Share price has more than doubled since April lows. 🧾 PE at 56, but strong growth potential and product expansion. 💼 Simon holds the stock — bought low, holding for the long term.

🏦 MPC shifts inflation target 🎯 🔽 New anchor at 3%, down from 4.5%. ⚠️ Finance Minister pushes back — governance concerns. 💸 Lower inflation = lower raises = better expectations management. 🧨 Flip side: high real interest rates hurt growth & jobs.
🚗 Vehicle sales boom 📊 July sales >51,000 units — highest since 2019! 🛻 Light commercial vehicles dominate, Mahindra sneaks into Top 10. 💰 CMH* shines with low PE and high dividend — Simon holds. 📉 Motus also cheap, but Simon prefers CMH.
🪙 Gold miners printing money ✨ AngloGold Ashanti*:
- 🚜 Production +21%
- 💰 Free cash flow +149%
- 📉 Net debt down 92%
- 💵 80c dividend
- 💹 Targeting R1,000/share — already at R972! ✨ Gold Fields also up ~150% YoY on earnings.
🧾 US Bureau of Labor Statistics drama 🇺🇸 🔥 Trump fires BLS head after unfavourable jobs data. ❗ Undermines trust in data — risks U.S. credibility. 🌎 Bad precedent: Greece, Argentina, China have all suffered from politicised stats.
🍊 Tariffs impact SA agriculture 🇺🇸 U.S. tariffs on citrus & grapes kick in Thursday. 📉 Sector exposure: ~10% — not massive but not zero. 👨‍🌾 Some farmers and related stocks (e.g. Mpact) will take a hit.

🧠 Random Insights * 🪙 Crypto in Parliament? 🇿🇦 Of 490 South African parliamentarians… only 2 declared owning crypto. 🤷‍♂️ No surprise crypto isn’t getting policy attention.

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🔺 Tariffs Incoming 🇿🇦 SA faces 30% US tariffs starting Friday. 🚗 Auto industry, 🍊 citrus, 🚚 logistics & 🧪 fertilizer sectors (like Omnia, Kaap Agri, Impact) to feel the heat — but no fatal blows expected.

📉 MPC Policy Misfire? 💰 SA inflation at 3%, but rates still stuck at 10.75%. 📉 Is the MPC behind the curve? Simon says: Yes. 📉 Calls for a rate cut of at least 0.5% to 1%.

SA CPI and Prime | 29 July 2025

🥇 Why Hasn’t the SARB Bought Gold in 20 Years? 📊 From 2005 to 2025: only ±48,000 ounces added. 📉 Gold outperformed the USD by a wide margin (680% vs 171%) over 20 years. 🤔 Why the gold aversion? Simon wants answers.

📈 Structured Product Spotlight 💼 New Standard Bank product: ✔️ 100% capital guarantee ✔️ 1.8x upside gearing ✔️ MSCI World Index exposure 📆 3.5 year duration, paid out in ETFs 💸 Min R25k. Closes in Sept.

🚘 Chinese Cars Disrupting the Market 🇨🇳 Omoda CX5 & CS9 – slick, affordable, feature-packed 💡 Screens bigger than laptops, prices lower than rivals ⚠️ Toyota, Ford, VW: Time to worry?

💊 Big Pharma Blunder 🤦‍♂️ Novo Nordisk loses Canadian patent by forgetting to pay a $250 fee 📉 Generics incoming. Massive oops.

🔍 Alphabet Results 💹 Stock up 15% since Simon’s last mention 💰 $95bn cash, low debt ⚖️ Facing antitrust heat – rulings incoming 📉 Possible price dip = buying opportunity?

📢 Next week: Who owns what in Parliament? Crypto, shares, surprises await…

🧠 Hosted by Simon Brown 💳 Powered by Standard Bank & Shyft – the global money app for smart travellers & investors

🌍 This week on Worldwide Markets, Simon dives into a packed show covering inflation, earnings, property deals, and opportunities in local stocks. Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets and Shyft — your gateway to global investing. 🌐💸

📉 Inflation Target Cut – A Bad Idea? • SA may shift to a 3% inflation target 📊 • Risks of higher interest rates 😬 • Real rates already sky-high 🚀

💵 Weaker US Dollar & Tech Gains • Trump’s weaker dollar policy in motion 🇺🇸📉 • MAG7 & Nasdaq benefit: 49%+ offshore revenue 🖥️🌐 • S&P 500 and Russell 2000 lag

🏢 Sibanye-Stillwater* Diversifies • Buys US recycling business ♻️ • Adds silver, copper, and skills 🪙🔧 • Expands beyond PGMs and gold

🪙 Voltara & PGMs Running Hot • Valterra Platinum update reflects flood damage & weak past PGM prices 🌊 • But platinum & palladium now breaking resistance levels 📈🔥

🏬 Hyprop’s Bid for MAS PLC • Cash or shares deal (R24 or Hyprop stock) 💰 • Hyprop focuses on Western Cape & Eastern Europe 🏖️🌍 • Deal may not be in MAS shareholders’ best interest ❓

🪨 Afrimat: Value at R45? • Price on long-term support line 📉🧱 • Concerns: iron ore, Lafarge deal, site near Mozambique 🇲🇿 • Van Heerden’s track record solid 💼💪 • Forward PE ~11, below decade mean 🔍

🧪 New ETF Database (Beta) • Search by issuer, classification, TER & more 🔍📊 • Explore at justonelap.com/etfdatabase 🧱📂 • Feedback welcome!

📜 SA Budget Drama • Multi-party politics = budget complexity 🧠 • Education budget almost derailed ❗

Simon Brown

I hold ungeared positions.

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🎙 This Week in Markets: US inflation ticks higher 📈, putting pressure on rate cuts. Powell's in no rush. Local rates also due end-July.

🏘 China Housing Trouble: 3 years of negative home price growth in China 🇨🇳. Citizens frustrated as property values slide. Evergrande and other ghosts still haunt.

Chinese Home prices Year-on-Year | June 2025

🚀 Elon Watch: Musk injects $2B into XAI 🤖. Deck chairs shuffled? Investors seem to approve.

🔩 PGMs Shine: Platinum and palladium break higher ⚪, supported by tightening supply. Miners like Sibanye*, Implats, and Northam bask in the glow.

💻 Nvidia Milestone: First $4 trillion company 🤯. AI + autonomous driving = future. Trump eases chip restrictions.

📦 Copper Tariffs: Trump proposes 50% import tariffs on copper 🔧. Could spark domestic production—or not.

📉 Gold & Oil: Gold drifts within range 🪙. Oil facing resistance again 🛢, needs a breakout above $77 to excite bulls.

₿ Bitcoin Treasury Companies: Why buy MicroStrategy at a premium when you can just buy Bitcoin? 🤷‍♂️ Financial engineering vs. logic. 📊 Strategy (ex-MicroStrategy) holds 600,000+ BTC. 🇿🇦 Altvest has one BTC—also in the mix.

🏛 Crypto Legislation: US considers classifying crypto as a commodity 🪙, stablecoins gaining traction. It’s Bitcoin Week at the White House. 🇺🇸

💸 ZAR & Tariffs: Rand weakened after US slaps 30% tariffs on SA imports ⚠️. Trump’s unpredictability rattles markets.

🧠 Coming Soon on Power Hour: 📅 August: Moxima Gama on advanced charting 📅 November: Keillen Ndlovu on REITs (local & offshore)

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🎧 Leave a rating and review — every bit helps! 📢 Back next week with more market insights.

Simon Brown

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Simon’s on holiday in sunny Durban 🌞 but couldn’t resist diving into what might be Trump’s grand economic plan. On the surface, it’s tariffs, spending cuts and tax breaks—but is there real strategy underneath the chaos?

🔹 Trump’s Big Idea: Use tariffs to raise revenue and onshore manufacturing 🏭 🔹 Debt Drama: US debt now > $30 trillion 😬 🔹 Tariffs Everywhere: South Africa slapped with 30%—and so is everyone else 🌍 🔹 Reshoring & Inflation: Could higher costs push inflation up again? 💸🔥 🔹 No Deals Signed: 90 deals in 90 days? 0 delivered 🤷‍♂️ 🔹 Foreign Policy Fallout: NATO, Mexico, Canada—strained relationships 🌐💥 🔹 Cut Spending: USAID, EV subsidies, and soft power eroded 🚫🌱 🔹 Regulation Rollback: Less red tape, but also less consumer/environmental protection 🧾♻️ 🔹 Crypto & Energy: Deregulate crypto, cozy up to OPEC for cheap oil ⛽🪙 🔹 Mar-a-Lago Accord?: A currency + Treasury buying pact that needs allies—who aren't coming 🤝❌ 🔹 Immigration & Performance Politics: Headlines vs. actual impact 🛂📺

💬 There’s a thread of logic, but execution has been clumsy at best. Allies alienated, deals undelivered. The endgame? Likely messy and inflationary.

Simon Brown

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The Year So Far 📈

Market returns in 2025 tell a story of extreme volatility rather than predictable trends.
The US 10-year yield spiked above 4.5%, shaking confidence before Trump walked back tariffs.

Trump’s Second Term 🏛️

Tariffs on Mexico, Canada, China, and NATO tensions triggered waves of uncertainty.
A 90-day tariff pause ends soon—more volatility ahead.

Currency Moves 💱

The rand hit R19.90/$ in April but has strengthened nearly 7% year to date.
Dollar weakness is driving big shifts—its worst start to a year in 50 years!

Commodities on Fire 🔥

Platinum: +52%, hitting 10-year highs
Gold: +27%, buoyed by central banks diversifying away from dollars
Copper, rhodium, uranium also strong, while coal and Brent oil are lagging

Equities: Winners & Losers 📊 Top Performers:

Sibanye Stillwater* +115% 🚀
Northam, Impala, Harmony riding the PGM boom
Surprise: MTN +58%, defying telco sceptics
British American Tobacco at record rand highs

Strugglers:

Aspen -27% 🩺
Spar, Mr Price* correcting after big runs
Sasol, despite the headlines, down just 5%

Global Markets Snapshot 🌐

European indices are up double digits (Germany +20%, Spain +21%)
Canada bounced +8.5% from April lows
Hong Kong +20% as Asia joins the rally
SA market in ZAR: +30% YTD, outpacing gold and the Nasdaq

Key Lessons 🎓

Volatility is a feature, not a bug.
When markets “go on sale,” don’t panic—buy like you would discounted chuckles.
Politicians worldwide are unpredictable—stay focused on your long-term plan.

The Dollar Story 💵

Dollar Index fell from 110 to 96 in six months.
Capital is rotating to Europe and emerging markets.
The tariff-driven isolationism in the US is reshaping global flows.

🗓️ Upcoming Event Power Hour – 21 July (Monday) Topic: Three Decades of Investment & Trading Lessons with Simon Brown 🔗 Register at JustOneLap.com/events

📈 More Resources * Full ETF performance update dropping Thursday: justonelap.com/ETFs * Read Simon’s market insights anytime on JustOneLap

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💸 Know Your Fees: Effective Annual Cost (EAC)

Not all fees are created equal — EAC is the real number to watch.
Applies to retirement products, LISPs, and unit trusts — not to stockbrokers.
📊 Understand the difference:
- TER (Total Expense Ratio)
- TIC (Total Investment Cost)
- EAC (includes platform + advisor + product fees)
- 🍏🍏 Apples-to-apples: Compare funds using EAC.
- 🎯 Target an EAC between 1.1%–1.5%.
- 💬 Negotiate! Advisor and platform fees are often flexible.
- 🔍 Beware: Some brokers refuse to give the number — that’s a red flag.
- ❗ Platform fees: Flat > Percentage. Otherwise, your 1% could become R100,000 in fees!

🛢️ Oil Wipeout & Geopolitics * Weekend U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear sites 🔥 led to… a shrug from the oil market. * 📈 Oil hit $81.40 early Monday, then crashed to $67.70 by Wednesday. * That’s a $14 drop, nearly 20% down — massive. * 🌍 Global market awash with oil:

+ 🇻🇪 Venezuela, 🇮🇷 Iran, 🇷🇺 Russia all pumping through sanctions
+ ⛽ OPEC+ supply increases kicking in soon

⛴️ Straits of Hormuz risk overstated — markets unconvinced
📉 Oil heading to $60? Possibly.

⚙️ Sasol: Much Ouch * ❌ Not a fan of Sasol — never been on that bus * 📉 Sasol collapsed this week: down 14–15% Tuesday * Currently hovering at R96, with support around R77 * 🧪 Chemicals weak, oil down, Rand strong = triple whammy * ⚠️ Not going bust, but it’s in real pain

💱 Rand Rollercoaster * 💵 USD/ZAR down from 18.15 to 17.76 * 🔻 Dollar weakness a key driver * 🎯 R17 still very much in play * 😬 Strong Rand not helping exporters like Sassol

🏦 Fed Watch: FOMC & Powell * 🕊️ No rate change last week, as expected * 📣 Powell grilled by Congress — MAGA heat incoming * 📉 Fed still guiding for two cuts in 2025 * Data outlook softening:

+ 🏭 GDP ↓
+ 📈 Inflation ↑
+ 👷 Unemployment ↑

🧠 Powell's just doing his job — not playing politics
SA’s MPC, on the other hand… maybe a bit behind the curve

⚗️ PGMs: Shiny Again? * 💬 Chat with Old Mutual: rotating out of gold, into PGMs * 🔼 Platinum at 10-year highs, last seen in Oct 2014 * 🇿🇼 🇿🇦 Platinum from Southern Africa; 🇨🇦 🇷🇺 Palladium elsewhere * 📦 Stockpiles, especially palladium, still working through * 🚗 EVs: Now only expected to be 40% of sales by 2035

+ Existential crisis for PGMs? Delayed… for now

🧊 Recycling paused — not worth it at these prices
🥇 Pick your poison: Impala, Northam, Sibanye Stillwater*…
- 📦 Sibanye with PGMs, palladium & gold exposure

🪙 Gold: Still Glowing * 🧲 Pullback to support around R3,330/g * Could go as low as R3,200 — but not rolling over * 💡 Structural shift in how investors (especially in developed markets) view gold * 🛡️ Post-2022 shift: Central banks hedging against future sanctions with more gold

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This week, Simon Brown unpacks the numbers behind a recovering South African consumer, an attractive new renewable energy listing, and the latest moves in platinum group metals (PGMs). Plus, CrowdStrike’s results, Omnia’s cash pile (and SARS headache), and what falling bond yields mean for SA.

In this episode:

📈 Retail recovery? Results from Mr Price and TFG show H2 improvement — are SA consumers finally catching a break?
🌱 Greencoat Renewables (JSE: GRP) lands on the JSE with a juicy ±9% dividend yield. Should you be bidding?
💰 Omnia shines with strong mining & agri numbers, plus another special dividend — but SARS looms.
🪙 PGMs on the move: Platinum breaks out, rhodium recovers — which miner is best placed to benefit?
🔐 CrowdStrike* delivers solid results, but share dilution raises eyebrows. Is it still a long-term cybersecurity winner?
💸 Currency & bonds: Rand firms as US dollar weakens and SA bond yields drop. What does it mean for investors?

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Simon has been doing a key note address over the last week and in this weeks podcast he takes a slightly different tack to what he usually presents. This time he is delivery his key note.

He looks back over almost forty years of market crises that he's invested through.

He shares the lessons he learnt, what caused the crisis and what the response was.

This includes; 1987, EM Tigers of 1998, the DotCom bust in 2000, Global Financial Crisis of 2008/9, the 2020 pandemic and finally the 2025 Trump tariff crisis.

SARB inflation target 🎯 Inflation remains well below target at 2.8%, raising expectations of a rate cut at Thursday’s MPC meeting. New long-term target could shift to 3%. ⏳ Rate cut coming? Market’s betting on 25bps; Simon wants 50bps. 💡 Lower target = anchored expectations = tamer wage negotiations.
Peloton (PTON) 🚴‍♂️ The pandemic darling may be turning a corner with solid free cash flow returning. 💵 Q3 FY25: $94.6m FCF (vs $10.7m in Q1) 📉 Stock at $7.50 (down from $170). Risky turnaround, but improving numbers. 📊 Subscriptions reviving; de-risked but needs deeper digging.
Gold Power Hour coming 19 June 🪙 Event: “Know when to hold it, know when to fold it.” 📆 19 June with Standard Bank 📈 Gold had its highest ever weekly close – bullish candles and all.
Rand strength 💪🇿🇦 ZAR gaining momentum: from 19.90 to 17.88. 🌍 Dollar index weakening, Trump tariff noise not shaking markets – yet. 🔮 Simon sees 16.80 as possible ahead.
USDZAR 27 May 2025 | weekly chart Trump tariffs whiplash 🇺🇸🌀 🗓 Flip-flops on 50% EU tariffs: delay to June? Or back to July 9? 🎭 Oval Office ambush with Ramaphosa. No real surprises. 📉 Market's still waiting for an actual deal – not just handshakes.
Renegen* (REN) & ASP Isotopes (ASPI) 🧪 🚨 Renegen deal: 1 share of ASP gets ~0.09 of REN. 🛑 Simon holding Renegen for Phase 2 helium – not keen on ASP. 💰 Nasdaq listing delays = funding delays.
Sasol (SOL) ⚖️ 💸 Transnet drops appeal, SOL gets R4bn court award. 📈 Stock rally confirmed – chart looking better, Brent still a drag. 🛢 Oil remains the key driver.
Pick n Pay (PIK) 🛒 📉 Still losing money, but less than before. 👷 Sean Summers’ contract extended to 2028. Break-even delayed. 💰 Boxer + R4bn cash > market cap = value if turnaround succeeds. 🚧 Market says: “We don't believe it. Yet.”
Nampak (NPK) 📦 ✅ Another slow but steady turnaround. 📊 Results not amazing but consumer headwinds easing.
Altron (AEL) 🚗📡 📈 Strong Netstar performance. Solid accounting tailwinds coming. 💬 Simon: “One of the few real turnaround wins.” 🧠 Potential still there – analyst upbeat.
Harmony (HAR) + Copper 🇦🇺🔧 💰 Buying Aussie copper mine for $1bn – diversifying away from gold. ⚖️ Adds immediate copper cash flow = de-risked future. 🔌 Copper demand = chips, EVs, energy. Chart still flat for now.
PGMs: Platinum & Palladium 💿 🔁 Trading in long-term ranges (R830–R1100). 📉 Not breaking out yet; charts uninspiring. 📦 Stockpiles still working through post-Russia invasion. 📉 EV transition and reduced supply in focus.

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🎯 Tariff Talks: Where Are We Now?

Simon Brown recaps the evolution of Trump-era tariffs, with recent developments around:

US-China deal: effective 54% tariff on Chinese goods, 10% on US goods
UK, Mexico, Canada, Vietnam likely settling around 10%
Expectations for other regions like EU, Saudi Arabia, South Africa
Conclusion: tariff escalation seems contained, reducing recession risks

Key Insight: Markets are stabilising as the worst-case tariff scenario is dialed back.

💊 Trump vs. Big Pharma Trump targets high drug prices in the US, pushing for:

30-day deadline for pharmaceutical companies to lower prices
Unclear legal basis; possible price controls debated
Pharma stocks bounce back slightly after initial drop

Simon’s Take: Healthcare is risky for investors due to constant regulatory pressure — he stays away.

💡 Lewis Group: Surprise Trading Update Lewis expects a 55–65% EPS increase, sparking:

A ~16% stock price surge
Ongoing share buybacks and high dividends (7.8% yield)
Strategy: loan book expansion, carefully managing bad debts

Verdict: Strong fundamentals, still looks cheap. Simon and analysts are bullish. 📈

🛒 Boxer’s Debut Results First results since Boxer listed:

Modest headline earnings (new shares diluted results)
25 new superstores & 35 liquor stores planned annually
Operating margins on par with Shoprite* (~5.5%)
Stock trading at fair valuation (R64.77), analysts' target: R76.66

Insight: Promising growth but priced in. Shoprite still Simon’s preferred pick. 🏪

🏅 AngloGold Ashanti*: Cash Flow Soars Highlights from AngloGold’s trading update:

7x increase in free cash flow
New dividend policy: $0.125 quarterly minimum + 50% of FCF
26% production increase (aided by Egypt acquisition)
Concerns: strong rand + weak gold price pressure the stock

Simon’s Position: Holds the stock, likes the dividends — cautious on expansion. 🪙

🏘️ Calgro M3 vs. Balwin Property sector comparison:

Calgro M3*: Sub-R1m homes, shifting from gov’t subsidies to open market
Balwin: Mid-to-high-end units (R1.1m–R3m+), annuity income from parks & amenities
Both cautious due to election risks and past invasions

Bottom Line: Simon owns Calgro, likes both for their contributions to housing. 🏡

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🧓 Warren Buffett Steps Down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway

Buffett officially steps aside as CEO at age 94, replaced by Greg Abel.
Still remains Chairman
Berkshire A shares up ~44,000% since the 80s
No dividends ever paid, only share buybacks
His legacy: simplicity, repeatable process, and long-term vision
Emphasis on reading years of balance sheets and loving cash flow
Fun fact: 96% of his net worth came after age 65

🏦 Investing Lessons from Buffett * Stick to quality companies at reasonable prices * Focus on permanent capital and compounding * Keep your process simple and repeatable * Don’t chase hype — focus on fundamentals * South Africa's Chris Seabrooke noted as a local Buffett-like investor

🌸 "Sell in May and Go Away" – Myth Busted * Simon critiques the old market adage. * S&P returns from May–October average 0.49%, Nov–Apr average 1.02% * Transaction costs, taxes, and missed rallies make timing unreliable * Verdict: It's a nursery rhyme, not an investment strategy

🛢️ Oil Falling as OPEC Hikes Production * OPEC+ accelerating production increases * Brent now ~$60/barrel

Impacts: * ✅ Good for fuel prices & oil consumers * ❌ Bad for Sasol (though price hasn’t reacted much) * 🏚️ Fracking rigs in US may shut down if prices fall further * Possible geopolitical angle: helping Trump by lowering gas prices

💵 Rand Strengthens * ZAR at R18.24/USD, nearing a key R18.30 technical level * Boosted by stronger exports, higher gold prices * Could trend toward R17 if momentum continues

🪙 Gold Surging Again * Gold bouncing back above $3,000 after recent dip * Driven by: + Central bank buying + Rebound in ETF inflows (especially in Europe, Asia, and US) + General inflation and recession fears + Upcoming FOMC decision adding fuel to the rally

🏛️ FOMC Decision This Week * Fed expected to hold rates * US inflation stickiness, strong jobs data, and political independence from Trump all in play * Simon expects no change but criticizes SARB for being too hawkish despite low SA inflation (2.7%)

🧠 Palantir Results – Big Numbers, Big Risks * Q1 Revenue up 39% YoY to $884M * Customers up 39%, EPS (non-GAAP) at $0.13 * Price-to-book: 58x ⚠️ * EV-to-sales: 100x ⚠️ * Heavy stock-based comp = shareholder dilution * Analysts split: mostly neutral or bearish * You’re investing in Peter Thiel’s vision, not value metrics

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🎙 Episode Summary: This week, Simon unpacks Alphabet’s surprisingly cheap valuation, troubling US economic data, South African CPI figures, Trump’s trade mess, and the implications of Aspen’s customer fallout. Plus, he previews the Berkshire AGM and upcoming JustOneLap events.

📉 US Economic Data Shock

Q1 GDP: Expected +0.2%, came in at –0.3% 😬
Imports surged 40%, skewing GDP down
Retail inventories and trade balance signal deeper issues
PCI inflation at 1.8% vs. 1.2% expected
Recession fears intensify

US GDP Q1 2025

🇺🇸 Trump’s 100-Day Trade Tangle

Trump promised 90 trade deals in 90 days — none signed yet
India might come to the table soon
Tariff chaos continues, shelves may empty by July
Xi Jinping not engaging — trade uncertainty remains high

📊 Alphabet (GOOGL) is Looking CHEAP

PE under 20, forward PE ~17 🔥
YouTube: $9B in rev, larger TV share than Netflix
Cloud turning profitable; Waymo surging
Risks: Antitrust cases, weakened core search, AI competition
Analyst sentiment: 13 Strong Buys, 39 Buys, 12 Holds
Price targets: Avg $202, High $240

🧠 Search Wars: Google vs. AI

Google Search = cluttered & ad-heavy
Simon prefers Perplexity & ChatGPT for clean, accurate info
Questions around ad revenue in AI-driven search era

💥 Aspen: Trust Broken

Lost a major take-or-pay client 🧪
Share down ~33%; questions around facility utilization
Replacing lost volume could take 12–18 months
Confidence in management fading

Aspen | Weekly 29 April 2025

📉 SA CPI Drops to 2.7%

Well below target band midpoint of 4.5%
Inflation lowest since mid-2020
Will SARB cut rates? Depends on FOMC outcome on 7 May

📚 Budget 3.0 Incoming

New budget after VAT hike rejection
21 May – Stay tuned for more policy drama

🏛 Berkshire Hathaway AGM

Saturday @ 14:30 SA time 🧓
First meeting without Charlie Munger
Warren Buffett expected to address investment outlooks and succession

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Gold Pullback in Focus

Gold surged to $3,500 before a sharp pullback to $3,321.
Simon breaks down what caused the spike — including comments from Trump about Powell and rate cuts.
Weekly chart shows potential kangaroo tail reversal — possible zone to watch: $2,800–$3,000.

Gold | Weekly | 23 April 2025

Trump, Powell & IMF Forecast Downgrades * Trump critiques Powell and Fed policy while possibly setting up a scapegoat. * IMF cuts global growth forecasts from 3.2% to 2.8%. * South Africa's expected GDP is now at 1% — far below Treasury’s 1.9% target.

Rare Earths: Not So Rare, Still Strategic * China's dominance in rare earths: 69% production, 90% processing. * Simon looks at the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF (REMX) as a thematic play. * Pros & cons of investing in rare earths — not fully sold on the ETF himself.

Flashback: 5 Years Since Negative Oil * Remember April 2020? Oil went negative (-$40.32)! * Breakdown of why it happened (physical settlement, lack of storage). * One of the wildest moments in market history.

21 April 2020 | WTO goes negative

New Battery Tech from China’s CATL * Sodium-ion batteries could rival lithium: cheaper, safer, fast-charging. * CATL is profitable and pays a dividend, but listed in Shenzhen, making access tricky.

Aspen's R2 Billion Hit * Brief mention of Aspen's contract dispute and loss. * Lack of transparency continues to damage trust in management.

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Global Markets Rundown * Goldman Sachs suggests gold could plausibly hit $4,500/oz by year-end. * Gold is currently around $3,200/oz, but volatility and uncertainty are driving prices higher. * Gold miners are benefiting from the price surge, with big leverage showing up in earnings. + Example: Pan African Resources made $900/oz at $2,250; could make $2,900 at $3,250. * Big upside still possible if gold just holds or drifts higher. * SA gold stocks (YTD performance): + Pan African Resources +106% + Harmony +76% + AngloGold Ashanti* +72% + Gold Fields +30% (with mine-related issues)

Gold | Weekly chart |15 April 2025

📉 Recession Watch * Larry Fink (BlackRock) & Jamie Dimon (JPMorgan): “US may already be in a recession.” * Trump’s constant tariff changes add more uncertainty. * Growth is slowing, and inflation is stubbornly high (risk of stagflation). * Treasury buyers are hesitant—money is going into gold, not US 10-year bonds. * China's potential bond moves could rattle the entire global system.

💸 Currency Check * The Rand recovered from nearly R20/USD to around R18.75/USD. * Driven by dollar weakness, global uncertainty, and DXY dipping below 100. * Local support for ZAR remains tentative but improving.

📊 ETFs & Resources Rally * Satrix RESI ETF* now ~50% gold miners, up ~44% YTD. * Resource-driven tax windfalls (like in 2021/22) show how profitable miners benefit the broader economy.

📈 Local Market Highlights * Purple Group* (EasyEquities) finally breaks out: * Strong results: HEPS up 204%. * Thrive initiative charging inactive accounts adds meaningful revenue. * Stock rallied from 92c to 118c in just over a week. * Possible end to aggressive selling pressure—more upside ahead?

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🇿🇦 South African Budget & Political Risk * Budget framework passed (barely) – VAT increase to 15.5% effective 1 May. * GNU under pressure as ANC signals reformulation talks with partners. * Rand volatility: Touched nearly R19.90/USD before recovering to ~R18.70.

💥 Global Markets in Turmoil * S&P 500 down 18.25%, Nasdaq down 22.5%. * Massive selloff: One of the steepest 4-day drops since 1950. * But historically, markets rebound over 1, 3, and 5 years post similar dips.

S&P500 | Weekly | 08 April 2025

🇺🇸 US Tariffs – Trump’s Economic Disruption * 104% tariffs on Chinese goods kick in; highest in 100+ years. * Aimed at reshaping global trade, raising revenue (~$600B–$1T est). * Massive uncertainty over whether Trump reverses course. * Impacts already visible: Nintendo delays Switch 2 US preorders.

🌐 Global Repercussions & Recession Risk * Supply chain shocks, rising costs, and job losses in producing countries (Vietnam, China). * Major US banks now see a >55% chance of global recession. * Countries shifting alliances; US being carved out.

🏦 US Treasuries Drama * Wild 10-year yield swings overnight – unusual volume raises eyebrows. * Could China be retaliating by offloading US debt?

💡 What To Do As An Investor * Avoid panic. Focus on quality and defensive stocks. * Opportunities: + SA: Capitec, Shoprite*, BIDCorp, RSA Retail Savings Bonds + Global: Ferrari (Race), Johnson & Johnson, ASML, Europe + Sectors: Healthcare (STXHLT), Tobacco, Alcohol, Staples

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Chapters 00:00 Market Overview and Budget Implications 02:59 Global Economic Concerns and Market Reactions 05:54 Trade Wars and Tariff Impacts 09:10 Investment Strategies in Uncertain Times 12:04 Sector Analysis: Opportunities and Risks 14:58 Future Market Predictions and Closing Thoughts

Simon Brown chats with Glynn Allen from Shyft Global on the history of the app and the recent introduction of JSE shares and a look ahead to new features.

S&P 500 Bounce? * After a rough start, Monday’s trading saw a small recovery. But with Trump’s "Liberation Day" tariff announcements looming, markets could be in for more volatility.

Budget Vote Approaches: * The ANC lacks votes to pass the postponed budget, with opposition parties like MK and EFF holding out. Political and economic uncertainty remains high.

Commodities on a Quiet Rally: * Gold (+19.5%), Copper (+26.5%), and Rhodium (+24.5%) lead the way, while oil and aluminium lag. The CRB Index is up 5.4% year-to-date.

Atlanta Fed GDP Now Update: * Q1 GDP estimate revised to -0.5% from -2.8%. Adjustments for gold trade data make the outlook slightly less dire.

Amazon at a Discount? * Stock down 20% from its highs, with a historically low P/E ratio of 34. Analysts see upside potential.

Amazon | Weekly Chat | 31 March 2025

Johnson & Johnson’s Dividend Appeal: * Trading near $165, with a potential drop to $150 making its 3% yield even more attractive.

Johnson & Johnson | Weekly Chat | 31 March 2025

New ETNs on the JSE: * Nvidia, Palantir, Novo Nordisk, and more available via FNB, offering exposure to top global stocks with local accessibility.

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00:00 Market Overview and Economic Indicators 03:09 US Tariff Implications and Market Reactions 05:45 Commodities Performance and Economic Impact 09:03 Stock Analysis: Amazon's Market Position 12:00 Stock Analysis: Johnson & Johnson's Stability 14:38 Investment Strategies and Innovations

Education Stocks: Winners and Losers * Stadio: Strong performance with double-digit growth and 50,000+ learners. Benefiting from a shortage of university spaces and the struggles at UNISA. Potential for further growth through distance learning and university status. * ADvTech*: Long-term holding with solid but not as aggressive growth. Strong presence in tertiary education and schools. Expansion into East Africa showing promise. * Curro: Disappointing results with flat learner numbers and write-downs on buildings. Struggles may be due to internal issues or broader economic pressures on lower-income consumers.

Commodity Movers: Copper & Rhodium * Copper: Near all-time highs due to demand from EVs, data centers, and energy transition. Companies like BHP*, Anglo, and Rio ramping up production. Simon is playing the copper trade through BHP Group.

Copper | Weekly | 25 March 2025

Rhodium: Seeing a price recovery after a prolonged downturn. Benefiting PGM miners, though still far from peak levels.
Platinum & Palladium: Relatively stable within established price ranges.

BYD's Breakthrough in Battery Tech * BYD claims a five-minute charge for 400 km range, setting a new benchmark for EVs. * Outpacing Tesla and other competitors in rapid-charging efficiency. * Dominating the affordable EV space with sub-$10,000 models. * Tesla’s Market Share Decline in Europe * Tesla’s share of the European BEV market dropped from 21% to 9.6%. * Competitive pricing from BYD and lack of Tesla model updates. * CEO Elon Musk’s political involvement potentially affecting brand perception.

Remgro: Growing Discount to NAV * Reported net asset value (NAV) of R276.89, but share price only R155. * The discount to NAV is reaching extreme levels. * Historically, Remgro traded at a much smaller discount, raising questions about potential revaluation.

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00:00 Market Overview and Education Stocks 06:51 Commodities: Copper and Rhodium Insights 13:34 Electric Vehicle Market Dynamics 18:02 Remgro's Financial Performance and Valuation Insights

Market Overview: * Top 40 Index: Hit an all-time high of 82,378, currently at 81,800. SA markets remain strong despite a US market selloff.

Top40 | Weekly | 18 March 2025
Gold: Broke $3,000 for the first time last week, currently around $3,030. Continues to rise amid geopolitical uncertainties.
Gold | Weekly | 19 March 2025
Rand: Trading at 18.07, briefly touching 18.0088 earlier. Dollar weakness driving strength, with a target level of 17.80.

Key Market Insights: * Gold as a Portfolio Hedge: + Maintains a 6-7% weighting in portfolio. + Recent purchase at $2,865 via GLD ETF in New York. + Potential buy zones: $2,800 and $2,850. * Dollar Index Trends: + Initially targeted 104, broke through to 101. + Could drive the Rand towards 17.80.

Global Uncertainty & Market Reactions: * European tariffs and Ukraine war concerns. * Trump-Putin meeting adds to geopolitical tensions. * Elevated US market valuations suggest exploring Europe ETFs.

Investment Strategies: * AI Participation Note by Standard Bank: * Tracks the S&P Kensho AI Index. * Two options: + 100% Capital Protection - Minimum investment of R25,000, capital secured, potential upside. + Capital at Risk with 140% Participation Rate - Higher returns if index rises, but losses if it drops more than 40%. * Open for investment until March 28, 2025.

Renergen* Helium Production Milestone: * Finally delivered helium after years of delays. * Stock surged from R3 to R9.30, but challenges remain. * Phase 2 expansion and NASDAQ listing pending. * Retail investors remain cautious due to past delays.

Macroeconomic Outlook: * Atlanta Fed GDP Now Forecast: * Predicts Q1 GDP contraction of -2.1%. * Economic slowdown concerns intensifying.

Upcoming Rate Decisions: * US Fed (FOMC): Unlikely to cut rates. * SA Reserve Bank (MPC): Potential space for a rate cut.

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00:00 Market Overview and Key Movements 05:47 Gold and Rand Dynamics 12:08 Investment Opportunities in AI 17:43 Renigen's Helium Production and Challenges 20:06 Budget Insights and Economic Outlook

The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Forecast * The Atlanta Fed GDPNow predicts a -2.4% GDP contraction for Q1 2025. * Market uncertainty due to tariffs and economic policy concerns. * Corporate travel and consumer bookings showing signs of weakness as Delta Airlines downgrades their expectations from mid January.

Market Reactions and Sell-Offs * Nasdaq and S&P had their worst single-day drops since 2022. * Major stocks like Nvidia, ASML, and CrowdStrike seeing significant declines. * Bitcoin at $81,000 amid broader market volatility.

Europe as a Potential Investment Opportunity * Europe’s economic stimulus: Germany announces a €500B package. * ETFs to consider: EURO STOXX 50 (SYGEU) vs. MSCI Europe Industrial Sector. * Potential for growth in industrial and defense sectors.

Euro Stoxx 50 | Weekly | 12 March 2025

Just One Lap Turns 14 * Founded in 2011 to provide online financial education. * Reflection on the platform’s growth and community support.

South African Budget Review * Possible VAT increase; lack of innovative fiscal strategies. * Previous reliance on gold reserves for financial stability. * Discussion on potential economic impacts.

HomeChoice International Results * Revenue up 21%, HEPS up 27%, dividend up 17%. * Expanding into fintech with PayJustNow and FinChoice. * Liquidity concerns despite strong financial performance.

Two-Pot Retirement Withdrawals - Where Did the Money Go? * Initial claims suggested debt repayment, but data suggests spending. * Increased vehicle sales, hospitality sector growth (e.g., Spur, Sun International). * Implications for long-term financial planning.

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00:00 Economic Outlook: Recession Predictions and Market Reactions 09:07 Investing in Europe: Opportunities and ETFs 12:07 Celebrating 14 Years of Just One Lap 13:20 Budget Analysis: VAT Increase and Economic Innovation 15:09 Home Choice International: Business Performance and Liquidity Challenges 18:19 Consumer Spending Trends: Where Did the Money Go?

Anglo-American’s Cash Raid on Anglo-Platinum * Anglo-American’s decision to unbundle its stake in Anglo-Platinum raises concerns. * Declaring a special dividend of R59 per share wipes out the company’s entire R17.6 billion cash reserves. * Implications for investors: selling pressure expected as shares land in new brokerage accounts.

China’s Tech Revival? * The appearance of Jack Ma and Xi Jinping together could mark a softening stance toward tech companies. * Alibaba partners with Apple, integrating its AI into Apple’s ecosystem. * Is China reopening the door for its tech giants?

Bull Market Momentum * Global indices continue to hit all-time highs, with AI and tech stocks leading the charge. * Not just tech: European and Asian markets show strength. * Are valuations stretched, or is there more room to run?

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Market Updates & Analysis: * Sasol Reversal Pattern? – Examining Sasol’s technical setup and the significance of a ‘kangaroo tail’ pattern. * Rand Stability Amid Trump’s Threats – Despite geopolitical concerns, the rand remains steady. * Top 40 at All-Time Highs – Market momentum and investor confidence.

South Africa’s Budget Speech (Wednesday, 2 PM SAST) * Revenue shortfalls and potential tax bracket adjustments * Universal Basic Income and National Health Insurance funding discussion * Expectations for the fiscal policy outlook

Stock & Sector Insights: * Telkom: Revenue up 0.9%, in a turnaround phase, but Simon remains skeptical about telcos. * Santam: Strong earnings growth (40-60% increase in HEPS), but insurance sector risks remain. * Shoprite*: Consumer stock pullback; long-term bullish outlook despite short-term pressure.

China Stocks & ETFs: * Alibaba up 40% on Apple collaboration * Satrix China ETF – is it time to reconsider investing in China? * General sentiment split between ‘China is uninvestable’ vs. ‘China has potential’

Bond Market Watch: * SA Bonds Showing Volatility: A significant move in bond yields post-Trump comments, raising concerns about borrowing costs.

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Trump Trade Tariffs & Global Market Impact: * Initial tariffs of 10% (China) and 25% (Canada, Mexico) announced but later revised. * U.S.-Canada relations strained, with Warren Buffett warning of reputational damage. * Global negotiation shifts—China, Russia, and Europe eye opportunities. * Continued U.S.-China trade tensions, including semiconductor restrictions and rare earth tariffs. * Market volatility expected; long-term investment strategies recommended.

Investment Strategies Amid Uncertainty: * Volatility is high—avoid panic selling. * Keep cash reserves for opportunities (buy the dip cautiously). * Long-term focus: presidential terms are temporary, investments span decades.

Interest Rate Decisions & Market Reactions: * Bank of England expected to cut rates. * U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell pauses rate hikes due to inflation concerns. * South Africa’s MPC cuts rates, prime now at 11%. * Analysts predict one to two more rate cuts in 2024.

Gold Market Strength & Outlook: * Gold price hovering near $2,900, with potential to break $3,000. * Supply constraints—minimal new gold mining projects. * Strong central bank purchases—1,000+ tons bought in 2023. * Retail ETF inflows return after three years of outflows. * Gold miners like Harmony, AngloGold*, and Pan African positioned well.

Gold weekly | 06 February 2025

Retail Sector & Consumer Spending:

Mixed trading updates: Pick n Pay and Boxer show early turnaround signs.
Modest growth in TFG, Mr. Price, and Clicks; Shoprite remains strong.
Cautious consumer spending patterns persist.

Two-Pot Retirement System: * Initial withdrawals lower than expected—around R50 billion. * Future ongoing withdrawals expected as a structural component in SA’s economy.

Vehicle Sales Trends: * January sales at 46,400—stronger than expected. * Used car market expanding, Chinese brands gaining traction. * Auto sector investment options: CMH*, Motus, and Zeda.

Such African monthly vehicle sales

Sasol’s Ongoing Struggles: * Six-month trading update—earnings per share around R14. * Continual asset write-downs and operational challenges. * PE ratio suggests market pricing for bankruptcy, but survival likely. * No clear turnaround signals yet—investors should wait for stronger confirmation.

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00:00 Market Overview and Podcast Introduction 01:10 Trump Tariffs and Global Trade Dynamics 06:25 Interest Rates and Economic Implications 10:02 Gold Market Trends and Predictions 12:51 Retail Sector Performance and Consumer Behavior 14:17 Vehicle Sales Insights and Market Trends 16:40 Sasol's Financial Challenges and Future Outlook

The Cristal Challenge runs until October, with participants picking five local stocks (no ETFs or sub-20c stocks) to hold through the year.

Simon’s picks include a mix of stable “banker” stocks and speculative plays:

Richemont*: * High-end luxury giant with strong fundamentals and global market appeal despite challenges in China. * Trading near R3,500, with long-term potential boosted by luxury market recovery and stable global demand.

Shoprite*: * Dominant grocery retailer in South Africa, benefiting from market share growth and diversified business lines like 60/60 delivery. * A steady performer with consistent earnings growth and market dominance, trading at a PE of 24.

ADvTech*: * Education sector leader, well-positioned to meet growing private schooling and tertiary education demands. * Education giant trading below its historical PE average, supported by asset-light growth strategies.

Calgro M3*: * Affordable housing developer, thriving on demand for low-to-mid-income housing in South Africa. * Value pick with a PE below 3 and a focus on affordable housing, addressing a critical market need.

Purple Group*: * Innovator behind EasyEquities, leveraging platform fees and expanded product offerings to drive revenue growth. * Growth potential through EasyEquities' platform fees, rising customer base, and additional financial products.

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TSMC’s Record-Breaking Results

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) hit $26 billion in quarterly revenue. A strong contender in the AI supply chain with growing global operations.

Gold: Continuing the Bull Run Gold remains a strong investment pick for Simon, with a potential to hit $3,000/oz.

Gold | Weekly | 21 January 2025

Brent Crude Oil Concerns Rising oil prices could hurt both the global and South African economies.

Trump Meme Coins & Meme Coin Mania Trump and Melania meme coins: Novelty or nonsense? Simon unpacks the hype.

Grinrod & Mozambique Challenges Operational risks in Mozambique but potential opportunities with Transnet’s private rail plans.

Sasol: A Case of Caution Chemical spin-offs and high oil prices spark discussion, but Simon isn’t convinced to buy. Cristal Challenge Simon’s picks for the Cristal Crystal Challenge: Shoprite, Purple Group, ADvtTch, Calgro M3, and Richemont*.

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For the twelfth year in a row Marc Ashton, Keith McLachlan & Simon Brown get together and make three predictions each for year ahead.

They then also give their expectations for the local Top40 index and the Rand against the US$.

But first every year they start by scoring their previous year predictions to keep things real and honest.

In the final show of the year Simon looks back at the many local and offshore winners (and a few losers) of 2024. There have been some excellent returns, but will they carry on into 2025?

Boxer IPO Hits the Market * Boxer* (JSE code will be BOX) lists on 28 November, debuting at R54/share after a highly oversubscribed IPO. * Strategies discussed for trading or investing in Boxer shares, including buying through Pick n Pay shares. * Key takeaway: Patience is key; wait for potential pullbacks.

Two-Pot Retirement Savings and Market Impact * Early evidence of consumer spending from the two-pot retirement system. * Stocks like Mr. Price*, Pepkor, and Keith McLachlan’s picks (e.g., Afrimat, Netcare) reviewed as beneficiaries.

Satrix 40 ETF Turns 24 * Launched in 2000, the Satrix 40 has delivered an annualized return of 11.3%. * Impact: Introduced passive investing and slashed fees for South African investors.

Bitcoin's Psychological Barrier at $100,000 * Bitcoin fell short of the $100K milestone, retracing to around $93K. * Analysis of big psychological levels in markets and what this means for Bitcoin's momentum.

Bitcoin | Weekly | 27 November 2024

Anglo-Platinum Share Sale * Anglo-American reduces its stake in Anglo-Platinum, selling at cycle lows. * Discussion on PGM market challenges and future outlook.

Trump’s Proposed Tariffs * Announced 10% tariffs on all Chinese imports and 25% on goods from Mexico and Canada. * Potential economic implications and geopolitical fallout analysed.

Rand, DXY, and Gold * The Rand holds surprisingly well despite DXY strength; predictions for 2024 suggest potential recovery. * Gold price fluctuations and long-term bullish outlook.

US$ Index (DXY) | Weekly | 27 November 2024

Commodity Spotlight: Coffee and Cocoa * Coffee prices hit 20-year highs due to Brazilian droughts, impacting consumer costs. * Cocoa prices stabilise after a surge, with Nestlé and soft commodity ETFs in focus.

Super Group and SG Fleet Deal * SG Fleet receives a buyout offer, boosting share prices. * Opportunities in second-tier stocks like Invicta and Hudaco highlighted for a potentially improving economic environment.

MPC Update * South African Reserve Bank increases rates by 0.25%, citing risks from core inflation and external pressures.

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00:00 Market Overview and Boxer IPO Insights 03:08 Two-Pot Money and Consumer Spending Trends 06:03 Satrix 40: A 24-Year Retrospective 08:51 Bitcoin's Psychological Barriers and Market Sentiment 11:40 Anglo-American's Strategic Moves and Market Reactions 14:58 Commodity Prices: Coffee and Cocoa Trends 17:49 Monetary Policy Committee Decisions and Economic Outlook

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October Inflation * Local CPI at 2.8%, yet prime is 11.5% ahead of the MPC decision this afternoon. * The gap is far to wide, SARB needs to cut aggressively.

South Africa | Prime vs. CPI

Gold and Bitcoin * Gold has bounced, but is this for real? * Bitcoin heading for US$100k

Rand weakness * The US$ remains string and is hurting the Rand.

US$ Index

Astral results * Good results * Paid back R1.1billion short-term debt * But volatile, a trading stock.

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Market Overview Crypto Surge, Gold Decline: Bitcoin rallies as investors shift from gold to crypto. Gold hit a recent high of $2,800 but is now pulling back, possibly towards $2,300-$2,400. Central banks continue to buy gold as a hedge against U.S. dollar dominance and geopolitical risks.

[caption id="attachment_43623" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Gold | Weekly | 13 November 2024

Rand Weakness: The ZAR weakened above 18 to the dollar, driven by strong U.S. dollar demand amidst market volatility. South African Rand overshoots due to its high liquidity, making it vulnerable to sharp moves.

Trump's Impact on Crypto Market speculation suggests Trump may be crypto-friendly, unlike the current SEC chair Gary Gensler, known for his strict regulatory stance. Potential shifts in the regulatory landscape could benefit cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin.

Simon holds Bitcoin and advises caution: ensure crypto is stored in a hardware wallet for safety.

Bitcoin | Weekly | 13 November 2024

Local Telco Sector: Vodacom & MTN Both companies struggle with weakened African currencies like the Ethiopian Birr and Egyptian Pound. Profits are impacted when converted back to ZAR.

Despite attractive dividend yields (MTN ~4%, Vodacom ~5.6%), Simon remains bearish, highlighting high capex demands and sector challenges.

Raubex: Construction Sector Bright Spot Strong results from Raubex, showing resilience in a struggling sector. Diversification into renewable energy and mining operations boosts performance.

Simon notes it as one of the few quality construction plays left, alongside Afrimat.

Consumer Market Struggles Updates from AVI and BidCorp indicate persistent weak consumer demand, despite optimism from a possible government of national unity. Inflation has eased, but consumer spending remains subdued as households repair balance sheets.

Retail updates show mixed results: Truworths reported disappointing numbers, while The Foschini Group* performed better.

Tencent Results Tencent posted strong results, though it did not significantly boost Naspers or Prosus stock prices. The market reaction was muted despite the solid performance.

Final Thoughts The market remains volatile, with significant moves in crypto, gold, and the Rand. Simon advises a cautious approach, with a focus on quality stocks and long-term plays.

Remember: be kind and look out for others. Kindness is rule number one.

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00:00 Market Overview: Crypto vs Gold 02:50 The Trump Effect on Gold and Crypto 06:01 The Future of the Rand and Emerging Markets 08:55 Sector Analysis: Vodacom, MTN, and Raubex 16:02 Consumer Trends and Company Updates

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Episode Summary: Simon Brown dives into the week’s biggest financial and economic stories, covering Trump’s election win, Nvidia's inclusion in the Dow, rate cuts expected from the FOMC and BOE, and the latest updates on Murray & Roberts, palladium, and gold. Recorded after market open, this episode sheds light on key trades, trends, and the shifting global landscape.

Trump's Victory – What’s the Trade? * Trump’s presidential win sparks market reactions, with immediate rallies in the S&P, Nasdaq, and Bitcoin. * Simon discusses potential policy impacts, such as tariffs, technology restrictions on China, and implications for commodities, oil, and the South African economy. * Notes on the uncertainty of Trump’s policies and their potential effects on inflation, EVs, and cryptocurrency.

Nvidia in the Dow; Intel Out * Nvidia enters the Dow Jones, replacing Intel. Simon critiques the Dow's price-based index system but acknowledges Nvidia’s stock performance, fuelled by strong demand from major tech firms. * Discussion on how Nvidia's AI hardware demand could shape future stock gains.

Nvidia | Weekly chart | Close 06 Nov 24

Murray & Roberts Update * Murray & Roberts faces project downscaling from De Beers, revealing challenges tied to low diamond demand. * Simon examines the ripple effects across the mining and construction sectors, highlighting how competitor data can provide insights.

Palladium & Gold Trends * Palladium and gold face downward pressure; Simon explores reasons for the dips, including potential G7 sanctions on Russian palladium. * Simon highlights that gold’s long-term appeal remains strong, driven by central banks diversifying away from U.S. dollars into gold.

Gold | Weekly chart | 07 Nov 24

Bank Rate Cuts – FOMC & BOE * Rate cuts anticipated from the FOMC and Bank of England as central banks shift to a rate-cutting cycle. Insights on the potential impact on global markets and currency dynamics.

ASML and AI Hardware Market * ASML’s forward guidance disappoints, affecting semiconductor market outlook. Simon explains the unique position of ASML in the AI chip supply chain and its long-term value as a buy-the-dip candidate.

CrowdStrike Resurgence * CrowdStrike's recovery following a Microsoft update issue and Delta lawsuit. Simon assesses the stock’s growth potential in the cybersecurity space.

Listener Takeaway: Markets remain unpredictable but resilient, with global relations, tech policies, and central bank strategies driving shifts. Simon emphasizes informed trading and the long view in these uncertain times.

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Disclaimers: The JSE Direct podcast is independent of JSE Limited and reflects Simon Brown’s views, not necessarily those of the JSE. Always consider risks when investing.

Local Inflation Update * Inflation at 3.8% - lowest since March 2021 (3.5 years ago) * Well below SARB's target range midpoint of 4.5% * Q3 year-on-year inflation at 4.3% (vs SARB's expected 4.4%)

SA CPI YonY September 2024

November MPC Meeting Outlook * Rate cut expected, but size uncertain * Possibility of 25bps vs 50bps cut * Factors affecting decision: + Rand weakness + Rising oil prices + Global economic conditions

Important titbit about today's SA headline CPI print. It meant that CPI rose by 4.3% y/y in Q3 2024. In Sept, SARB expected 4.4% for Q3, implying Sept print largely in line with their expectations. Therefore, today's number will not change SARB's thinking. Folks should calm down.

— Hugo Pienaar (@hugopien) October 23, 2024

Currency Markets * US Dollar showing significant strength * DXY moved from 100.42 to 104.33 (≈4% increase in one month) * Strong capital flows into US * Rand trading at R17.73 * Potential to move above R18 * Long-term targets of R16.80 and R15.50 looking less likely short-term

US Election Impact * Potential implications of different outcomes * Trump's proposed policies could be inflationary: + Planned tariffs + Immigration restrictions * Impact on labor markets and prices

Famous Brands Results Analysis Using AI * Demonstration of AI analysis using Google Notebook LM * Key findings: + Leading Brands: Operating margin >50% + Signature Brands: Operating margin -6.7% + Manufacturing: Improved margins due to diesel savings + Geographic performance varies: - South Africa: 1.8% margin - UK operations showing significant decline - Cash generation at R498 million (7% decrease) - Plans for 89 new stores

Chapters

00:00 Local Inflation and Economic Outlook 06:01 Using AI for Investment Analysis 12:06 Famous Brands Results Analysis 18:05 Comparative Analysis with SPUR

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Strong Retail Sales and the Two-Pot System: * Retail sales show a positive trend, rising 3.2% in August, exceeding expectations of 2.1%. * The Two-Pot System has already released R20 billion in six weeks, with the money used mainly for paying down debt, saving, and spending. * Retail sales recovery, though from a low base, is a strong indicator of improved consumer health due to factors like slightly lower interest rates and inflation.

South African retail sales | YonY

Tribute to Tito Mboweni: * Simon reflects on the passing of Tito Mboweni, former Finance Minister and Reserve Bank Governor. * Mboweni’s contributions include institutionalising the Reserve Bank’s MPC meetings and implementing key labor reforms during his tenure as Labor Minister. * His lasting impact on the country’s economy and financial sectors was highlighted, along with his personality as a Twitter chef and self-styled "Duke of Magoebaskloof."

Johnson & Johnson – A Smooth Dividend Play: * Simon shares his reasons for holding Johnson & Johnson: consistent dividend growth (around 3% yield) and a steady 8% annual share price growth in US dollars. * Despite some issues, the company offers reliable long-term returns in a competitive health and consumer space.

Johnson & Johnson quarterly dividend payments

Bytes Technology Group and Investment Opportunity: * Bytes operates in the UK, offering hardware, software, and services. The stock showed mixed market reactions but has strong support around certain levels. * With a forward P/E of 20 and a dividend yield of 3.6%, Simon sees it as an interesting opportunity for long-term investors in the tech space.

Quilter Trading Update: * Quilter’s strong Q3 results follow a good first half of the year, with significant inflows supporting future earnings. * A solid financial services player with a dividend yield near 4% and a forward P/E of 15, Quilter is performing well and trading at all-time highs since its 2018 listing.

Sasol – A Weak Chart: * Simon discusses Sasol’s ongoing struggles, with a weak chart suggesting possible further declines. * Investors should wait for technical indicators before making any moves.

Brent Oil Price and Rand Volatility: * Brent crude oil hit highs recently but is now retreating to $70 per barrel, with potential for further declines due to global oversupply. * The rand, affected by dollar strength, is volatile but could see a return to 16.80 against the dollar in the coming months.

Chapters 00:00 Retail Sales Recovery and Economic Outlook 04:29 Tribute to Tito Mboweni 08:32 Johnson & Johnson: A Steady Investment 09:52 Bytes Technology Group: Market Reactions 12:32 Quilter's Strong Performance 14:29 Cecil's Ongoing Struggles 15:56 Brent Oil Prices and Global Economy 17:48 Volatility of the Rand and Market Predictions

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Overview:

In this episode of JSE Direct, Simon Brown breaks down the latest market updates, key stock analyses, and insights into the South African investment landscape. Episode highlights include discussions on property developers Calgro M3 and Balwin, Capitec’s strong performance, Purple Group’s rise, Afrimat’s challenging update, and Wilson Bailey’s long-term chart breakout. The show also covers upcoming events and Brown's views on Nvidia’s stock movement.

Property Developers: Calgro M3* vs. Balwin * Calgro M3: Delivered a strong trading update, attributed to its flexibility in targeting lower-income segments. Calgro’s ability to adapt and scale down offerings positions it well, with potential for significant price appreciation. Trading at a low PE of 3.5, Brown argues that in a normal market, it should command a 10x PE, suggesting a fair value of around R9. * Balwin: Struggling with higher entry price points in its developments. Despite weaker performance, there may still be value. If results improve in the future, Balwin could present a solid opportunity. Brown speculates that a delisting could be on the cards if the stock remains undervalued.

Calgro M3 weekly chart | Close 09 October 2024

Capitec: Expensive, but Resilient * Capitec continues to outperform with robust growth, though it trades at a high PE of 27 and a price-to-book of 7.8. Despite concerns about its premium valuation, the company’s diverse ventures, from mobile services to expanding insurance offerings, make it a long-term core portfolio holding. Historical growth shows Capitec’s resilience and market leadership in the South African banking sector.

Purple Group*: A Breakout Stock * After months of a consistent seller at 80 cents, Purple Group’s stock broke higher, reaching 98 cents before pulling back. Brown remains optimistic, particularly as trading volumes in the JSE pick up, benefiting Purple’s core business. Although trading at a high PE of 45, Brown is bullish about its prospects in a rising market.

Afrimat: A Tough Year, but Long-Term Potential * Afrimat’s trading update indicated a sharp drop in earnings (down 75-85%), partly due to the acquisition of Lafarge, which is still loss-making. While the near-term outlook is challenging, Brown remains optimistic about Afrimat’s long-term potential, especially if South Africa enters a construction boom. He sees the stock as attractively priced for long-term investors.

Wilson Bayly Holmes-Ovcon (WBHO): A 16-Year Breakout * Brown discusses WBHO’s impressive 17-year chart, finally breaking out after a long consolidation period. He suggests the stock could benefit from renewed local construction activity, while Afrimat remains his preferred pick in the sector due to its diversification into industrial metals.

A breakout after a 17-year consolidation is very bullish in TA. Add the fundamental underpin. I think this still has lots of room to run. pic.twitter.com/fBk5BCKtvk

— Richard Thomason (@richytee) October 9, 2024

Nvidia: Breaking New Highs * Nvidia, another stock Brown holds, is testing all-time highs after a series of consolidations. With Nvidia's historical pattern of doubling after breaking key resistance levels, Brown remains confident in the stock's potential for further growth despite its high valuation.

Nvidia weekly chart | Close 09 October 2024

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Chapters 00:00 Market Overview and Calgro M3 vs Balwin 07:11 Capitec's Performance and Future Outlook 12:43 Exploring Other Stocks: Purple Group and Afrimat 18:15 Long-term Trends: Wilson Bailey and Nvidia

China's Market Rebound Stimulus Measures: The Chinese government has initiated a stimulus, which includes cutting reserve requirements and lowering interest rates. While spending has not picked up fully, the China 50 ETF (in US dollars) has wiped out losses dating back to July 2022. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index shows a similar trend.

Market Sentiment: Short squeezes have played a role in pushing the prices of big Chinese companies like Alibaba and Tencent higher. Despite concerns about China's long-term investability (raised by experts like Viv Govender of Rand Swiss), Simon remains optimistic about continued growth in the medium term.

Shift in Hot Money: There's been a notable shift away from tech stocks like Apple and Nvidia, with more capital flowing towards China in recent days. Simon discusses the potential for short-term pullbacks, but he sees this as an opportunity.

South African ETFs Performance Top Performers: Property ETFs have outperformed, with the CSPROP, Satrix Property, and 1nvest Property ETFs gaining between 30% and 31.7% over nine months ending in September 2023.

Underperformers: ETFs linked to palladium, platinum, and tech innovation (e.g., Sygnia’s Fourth Industrial Revolution ETF and Satrix Healthcare Innovation ETF) have shown negative returns.

Outlook for South African REITs Simon expects further growth in the property sector but at a more moderate pace than this year’s 30% returns. He highlights the potential impact of upcoming interest rate cuts, consumer spending at malls, and the demand for yield as government bond rates decrease. Some REITs, particularly those in rural and township retail spaces, are performing exceptionally well.

The market tends to move ahead of the cuts based on expectations, but technically any cut is great for cheaper debt and more consumer spending at the underlying properties, plus a lower rate for the valuations which means a higher present value. So yes, they can keep going.

— The Finance Ghost (@FinanceGhost) October 2, 2024

The South African Rand and Global Markets The Rand has seen fluctuations, dipping to as low as 17.02 against the US dollar and facing pressures from global events such as the Iranian attack on Israel and rising oil prices. Simon expects the Rand to strengthen and potentially break below 17, possibly reaching levels as low as 14.

Oil Prices: OPEC is grappling with maintaining production discipline. Oil prices are likely to hover around $70 per barrel, which is positive news for South African consumers in terms of petrol prices. South African PMI and Vehicle Sales

PMI: South Africa’s PMI for September was positive, indicating slight economic expansion. The absence of load shedding and lower interest rates have contributed to the improved outlook.

Vehicle Sales: September saw better-than-average vehicle sales (44,000 units). Simon emphasizes the potential upside in companies like Combined Motor Holdings (CMH), which has started to perform after years of stagnation. Investment Strategy in a Bull Market

September SA vehicle sales

Simon reiterates his bullish stance, noting that while there will be pullbacks (up to 10% corrections), the overall trend remains upward. He advises staying long in the market, especially in a bull phase.

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Summary: In this episode of JSE Direct, Simon Brown delves into the latest developments in South African markets, focusing on the impact of China's major economic stimulus and the strengthening of the Rand. Key highlights include:

Rand Strength: The Rand has seen notable appreciation, reaching levels of R17.12 to the US dollar. Simon discusses the drivers behind this, particularly US dollar weakness and foreign purchases of South African bonds. He explores possible future movements, with a target of R16.80 and potential for further strengthening.

USDZAR | Weekly | 26 Sep 24

Global Stimulus: China's massive stimulus measures, including relaxed lending rules for banks and lower interest rates, are aimed at boosting consumer demand. This is the largest Chinese stimulus since 2008, with significant potential to impact global commodities and bolster the South African economy.

Commodities & Bull Market: The commodities market is seeing positive movement, with Chinese demand driving up prices for industrial metals like copper, iron ore, and coal. Simon notes how the previous commodity bull run in 2021 significantly strengthened the Rand and discusses the potential for a similar scenario if China's economy continues to gain momentum.

Market Performance: South Africa is outperforming other emerging markets, particularly Brazil and Mexico, over the past six months. Simon explains the drivers of this outperformance and highlights the continuing bull run in the JSE Top 40 and All-Share indices.

SA Equities: Our fortunes have changed significantly since the GNU was formed in June. SA has dramatically outperformed (in US$) not only Emerging markets in general, but Brazil & Mexico. SA has tilted more centrist, with a focus on the economy. Brazil & Mexico both shifted left. pic.twitter.com/Zz6OOM4dCJ

— Karin Richards (@Richards_Karin) September 23, 2024

Rate Cuts: South Africa and several other global economies, including the US and Europe, have entered a rate-cutting cycle. Simon emphasises the importance of this for markets, especially property stocks, which are benefiting from lower bond yields and improved investor sentiment.

JSE Index Changes: Anglo Platinum has been removed from the JSE Top 40 index, replaced by Pepkor. Simon discusses why Pepkor’s entry is significant, given its position as a retailer and its attractive valuation compared to competitors.

Key Discussion Points: * Rand’s strengthening trajectory and foreign capital inflows. * China's economic stimulus and its potential effects on global commodities. * Outlook for South Africa’s bond and equity markets. * Changes in the JSE Top 40 index with Pepkor replacing Anglo Platinum. * Global rate-cutting trends and their impact on local property stocks.

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Episode Overview:

In this episode, Simon Brown dives into the current economic landscape with a focus on interest rates, inflation, and the state of the South African Rand (ZAR). He also explores asset-light businesses and why they make great investments, followed by a breakdown of the latest market activity and local company results.

Rate Cuts & Inflation Outlook: * South African CPI (August): 4.4%. * A possible drop to 3.5% in October discussed with Johan Els, Chief Economist at Old Mutual. * The need for rate cuts to stimulate the economy, with experts debating between 0.25% and 0.5% cuts. * Fed decision and its potential market impact.

SA Prime and CPI September 2024

ZAR Strength & Market Trends: * Rand showing strength, potentially reaching sub-17 levels. * Global market highs: S&P 500, NASDAQ, and JSE Top 40. * Consumer confidence in the US and South Africa rising but still negative.

Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) & Palladium: * A strong bounce in PGM stocks, driven by oversold positions and palladium production cuts. * Palladium’s recent performance and its potential future breakouts.

Palladium weekly chart | 18 September 2024

Asset-Light Businesses & Their Investment Potential: * Definition and benefits of asset-light businesses (e.g., Santova, Nvidia). * Simon breaks down why businesses with fewer physical assets can provide higher returns on equity and efficiency. * Comparison to asset-heavy businesses like banks and retailers. * A deep dive into asset-light models like Shein, Temu, and logistics firms.

Company Updates & Local Results: * Outsurance: Strong financial results and special dividends; analysis of the short-term insurance industry’s ability to reprice premiums annually. * Altvest IPO: Simon discusses the upcoming Altvest IPO on the JSE and why he's not taking part in it, despite its interesting SME funding model. * Finbond: A look at the excitement surrounding Finbond’s potential delisting and the company’s moves in the US market.

Noteworthy Quotes: "Rate cuts are coming, and I think we'll see a short-term sell-off as markets react." "Asset-light businesses like Santova and Shein are great investment opportunities because they don't carry the heavy burden of owning physical assets." "Outsurance continues to impress with strong numbers and dividends, proving the strength of short-term insurers."

Chapters 00:00 Economic Landscape and Rate Decisions 03:09 Understanding Asset-Light Businesses 05:54 Market Psychology and Upcoming Events 09:11 Local Results and Investment Insights 11:52 Exploring New Investment Opportunities 15:10 Finbond and Market Speculations 17:59 Larry Ellison and Oracle's Rise

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Summary

In this episode of JSE Direct, Simon Brown discusses various topics including the troubles faced by Anglo Platinum, the performance of leisure stocks, Anglo Gold Ashanti's* acquisition of an Egyptian gold miner, and the impact of two pot withdrawals. He also touches on the future of PGMs, the growth of electric vehicles, and the psychology of markets.

Takeaways * Anglo Platinum is facing challenges as Anglo American wants to get rid of their stake, causing a sell-off in the market.

Anglo Platinum weekly chart
The PGMs market is uncertain, with palladium and platinum prices experiencing fluctuations.
The World Platinum Council projects a second year of meaningful platinum deficits, with jewelry demand expected to rise.
The growth of electric vehicles is impacting the demand for PGMs, but the market is still uncertain.
Investors should wait for positive price action before considering investments in PGMs.
Anglo Gold Ashanti's acquisition of an Egyptian gold miner raises questions about the use of equity and the future of gold prices.
Two pot withdrawals have resulted in over 4 billion rand being withdrawn from the market.
Leisure stocks, such as City Lodge and Sun International, have mixed performance, with City Lodge experiencing lower occupancy rates.
The growth of sports betting raises concerns about its impact on poorer individuals and the fairness of the industry.

Sound Bites "Anglo Platinum has a problem which is perhaps a little more unique than just the PGMs."

"There is that initial overhang. A whole lot of people will get Anglo-Platinum shares and say, 'I don't want these' and sell it."

"The World Platinum Council is saying we're gonna have deficit again, that's the important point."

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Chapters 00:00 Challenges for Anglo Platinum and the PGMs Market 02:22 The Future of PGMs and the Impact of Electric Vehicles 07:54 The World Platinum Council's Projections 09:16 The Diminishing Role of Internal Combustion Engines 11:09 The Impact of Low Prices on Production 14:55 Anglo Gold Ashanti's Acquisition and the Use of Equity 17:56 Pot Withdrawals and their Effect on the Market 19:18 Performance of Leisure Stocks: City Lodge and Sun International 19:42 Concerns about Sports Betting and its Impact 20:10 Upcoming Events: Investment Goals and the Psychology of Markets

Episode Summary: In this episode of JSE Direct, Simon Brown delves into the impact of anticipated interest rate cuts and how they may affect various sectors and stocks. He shares his thoughts on potential beneficiaries like consumer stocks, REITs, and companies with high levels of debt. The episode also covers key updates on Nvidia's earnings, Nike's stock valuation, and a new ETF listing by ETFSA.

Interest Rate Cuts and Market Impact: * Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole Speech: The anticipation of rate cuts as early as September, with an expected reduction of around 75 basis points by the end of the year. * Benefiting Sectors: Companies with significant debt, consumer stocks (Mr Price, Foschini, Shoprite), and REITs are likely to benefit from lower interest rates. * Sector-Specific Insights: + REITs: Discusses the potential for real estate investment trusts like Storage, Spear, and the concerns around office spaces with high vacancy rates. + Consumer Stocks: Simon reiterates his positive outlook on consumer-focused companies and the strong performance of used and new car sales, highlighting stocks like CMH and Motus.

Stock Analysis: * Nvidia: With results due, Simon highlights the market's expectations and the potential for significant movement based on the earnings report.

Nvidia | Close 27 aug 24 | Weekly chart
Nike: Simon discusses Nike’s current valuation, seeing it as a strong buy at its multi-decade support levels, despite its challenges.

Nike | Close 27 aug 24 | Weekly chart

ETF Updates: * ETFSA's New Actively Managed ETF: Introduction of the Balanced Foundation ETF, which is actively managed due to the lack of a specific index and includes a mix of local and foreign equities, bonds, and property. * Satrix Nasdaq ETF: The transition from a feeder fund to a standard fund, reducing total expense ratios and offering cost benefits to investors.

Housekeeping: * No Show Next Week: Simon will be on vacation and the podcast will resume on 12 September. * Money Summit: Scheduled for 10 September in Johannesburg with free tickets available using the code "MONEYWEBGEST" at MoneySummit.co.za.

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ETFSA is listing an Actively Managed ETF, The ETFSA Balanced Foundation Prescient AMETF (JSE code: ETFSAB).

Simon spoke with Gareth Stobie from ETFSA about the ETF, the listing process, where it fits in a portfolio and what it will be holding.

IPO opens: 26 August 2024
Listing date: 02 September 2024
JSE code: ETFSAB
TER: 0.52%

ETFSAB

In this landmark 600th episode of JSE Direct, Simon Brown reflects on the podcast's journey from its beginnings as a radio show in 2008 to becoming a leading podcast for market insights. The episode covers a range of topics, from South Africa's local CPI and a strengthening Rand to the surprising twists in the gold market and a mixed bag of corporate earnings.

Local Inflation Data: South Africa's CPI has come in better than expected at 4.6%, fueling speculation on whether the next rate cut by the MPC might be more aggressive than anticipated.

South Africa CPI | July 2024

Rand Strengthens: The Rand has shown significant strength, dropping below 18 to the dollar, with Simon analyzing the contributing factors, including foreign investment in bonds and a weakening US dollar.

Bull Market Sentiment: Simon reaffirms the current bull market, highlighting the JSE's all-time highs and advising listeners to stay invested while cautioning against the risks of sitting on the sidelines.

Top40 20 August 2024 | Weekly chart

Gold Market Rally: Gold prices have surged above $2,500, driven by central banks' increased purchases and concerns about the US dollar's stability. Simon discusses the potential for further gains in the gold market.

Corporate Earnings Recap: * Coronation Fund Managers: Special dividend announced but falls short of expectations. * CMH*: Despite low liquidity, the stock continues to climb, reflecting the breadth of the bull market. * Sasol: Disappointing results with no dividend payout, a situation Simon had previously predicted. * Spur Corporation: Strong earnings, signaling improving economic conditions.

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Sasol's Struggles:

Simon revisits Sasol's recent production and trading updates. Despite some positive news, the company's financials remain grim due to significant write-downs and a challenging pricing environment, especially in the chemical complex. With a forward PE ratio hovering around 3, Simon questions the actual value in Sasol and advises caution, emphasising the importance of waiting for a stock to show signs of recovery before investing.

Sasol weekly chart | 13 August 2024

ADvTech's* Solid Performance: Simon provides insights into ADvTech's latest trading update. Despite a voluntary update (not mandated by a 20% variance), the company shows strong growth in earnings per share. He discusses the stock's valuation, historical performance, and why he remains optimistic about its future prospects, even as it trades at a PE ratio of around 15.

ADvTech weekly chart | 13 August 2024

Combined Motor Holdings* (CMH): Simon shares his thoughts on CMH, a stock he has held for years. Despite a stagnant price movement over the past three years, the stock offers a solid dividend yield. He discusses the broader consumer environment, the potential impact of reduced interest rates, and why he continues to favour CMH over competitors like Motus.

CMH weekly chart | 13 August 2024

Renegen's* Milestone: After a year and a half of delays, Renergen finally starts producing helium. While the stock has seen a recent uptick, Simon highlights the challenges that still lie ahead, including scaling up production and the company's upcoming NASDAQ listing. He also reflects on the broader sentiment in the junior mining sector.

Coronation's Active ETFs: Coronation has launched six actively managed ETFs on the JSE, a significant development in the local ETF market. Simon explains the concept of actively managed ETFs and why this move could be a game-changer for both Coronation and the JSE, even if he personally isn't planning to invest in them. Find details here.

US Inflation Update: The latest US CPI data shows a slight decrease to 2.9% for July, but core inflation remains elevated. Simon discusses the implications for future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the potential impact on South African monetary policy.

Tribute to Brett Duncan: Simon pays tribute to Brett Duncan, a former stockbroker and warrants market leader at Standard Bank, who recently passed away. Brett was a key figure in Simon's early career and played a significant role in the South African warrants market. His passing is a significant loss.

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Apple's Financial Performance and Buffett's Decision: * Apple's recent financial results showed steady revenue growth across various segments including iPhone, MacBooks, and iPads. * Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway reduced its stake in Apple by half, sparking market speculation. * The implications of Apple's valuation and Buffett's strategy in maintaining a significant yet reduced position in Apple were discussed.

Market Movements in Japan: * The dramatic drop in Japan's Nikkei 225 index, which fell nearly 27% from its recent highs, was analyzed. * Possible reasons behind the sell-off included the unwinding of the Japanese carry trade and broader market concerns about global economic stability. * The role of low liquidity in exacerbating the market decline was highlighted.

Nikkei 225

Nedbank's Financial Results: * Nedbank reported solid financial results with HEP's up 11% and a near 15% return on equity. * Improvements in impairments and concerns over the cost-to-income ratio were noted. * The banking index's performance and its implications for Nedbank's stock were discussed.

Anglogold Ashanti's* Performance: * Anglogold Ashanti's strong production and profitability metrics were reviewed. * The importance of holding gold miners and gold ETFs in the current market environment was emphasized.

Launch of Ethereum ETFs: * The approval of Ethereum ETFs by the US SEC was announced, with eight new ETFs available for trading in New York. * The differences between Ethereum's proof-of-stake blockchain and Bitcoin's proof-of-work blockchain were explained. * Potential implications for investors and the broader crypto market were discussed.

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Jerome Powell's Statement:

Rates left unchanged in the US.
Possible rate cuts on the table for September.
US MPC meeting on 19 September.
Data needed: improving inflation and higher unemployment.

Oil and Gold Market Update: * Brent Crude: + Under pressure, signaling weak global demand. + Lower highs trend since June 2022. + Support at $72.50 and resistance around $88.

Brent Oil | 01 August 2024
Gold:
- Trading near all-time highs.
- Strong central bank buying.
- Uncertain targets, but bullish sentiment persists.

Gold | 01 August 2024

Potential JSE Delistings: * Criteria: Dividend yield > 0, market cap < 5 billion ZAR, NAV price > 100, P/E < 10, and profitable. * Initial search yielded 53 stocks, refined criteria (dividend yield > 5%) narrowed it down to 25. * Top candidates: African Media Entertainment, Argent, Combined Motor Holdings*, eMedia, Frontier Transport, Home Choice, Mustek, PrimeServe, Transpaco.

Shoprite*: * Trading at all-time highs. * 12% revenue increase, 6.3% like-for-like growth, 5.8% inflation. * Successful new store formats (PetScience, Checkers Outdoor, UNIQ Clothing, Little Me).

Woolies: * Disappointing trading statement. * Comparable store sales up 6.9%, inflation at 7%, volume decline. * Heps down 14-19%, market expectation miss.

RSA Retail Bonds Update: * New Rates: Two-year at 8.75%, three-year at 9%, five-year at 10.25%. * Rates have been declining since June.

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Presidential Vision for Infrastructure Development: The South African President's recent speech emphasised making the country a hub of construction and infrastructure development. The potential for public-private partnerships and the types of infrastructure that might be developed, including roads, energy transmission, and public buildings.

Stocks That Could Benefit: * Construction Stocks: A detailed look at various construction-related companies and their potential to benefit from the President's infrastructure plans. * PPC: Potential benefits from increased construction activity. * Murray & Roberts: Despite historical losses, they have a division in infrastructure and renewable power that might benefit. * Stefanutti Stocks: Focus on their claim against Eskom, which is crucial for their future. * Wilson Bayly Holmes (WBHO): Expected growth, though a significant portion of their revenue comes from Australia. * Raubex: Strong performance and solid management, with significant involvement in road construction through Sanral. * Afrimat: Supplier of construction materials, benefiting from Sanral and Transnet orders. * Reunert: Involvement in industrial cabling and commercial battery storage, critical for new power facilities.

Market Insights: * Mr Price* Update: Gaining market share and performing well post-elections and during a late-arriving winter. * Sasol Production Update: Management's effective handling of controllable factors and slight improvements in Transnet's performance. * Kumba Iron Ore: Confirmation of slight improvements in Transnet, echoing Sasol's observations.

JSE Listed Construction Stocks | 1 year return | close 23 July 2024

International Market Movements: * CrowdStrike* Incident: A significant security update issue affected numerous systems, impacting the stock but not signalling an end for the company. * US Small Cap Stocks: Rotation into small caps like those in the Russell 2000 index, offering a cheaper alternative to large-cap tech stocks.

Simon Brown wraps up the episode by emphasizing the importance of infrastructure development for South Africa's economy and reiterates his top stock picks to benefit from potential future construction projects: Raubex, Afrimat, and Reunert. He also touches on the potential 3% GDP growth for 2025 and the broader market implications.

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SA GDP Growth Prospects * IMF's projection: 0.9% GDP for South Africa this year. * Potential factors for growth next year: * Reduced load shedding could add 1% to GDP. * Two-pot system introduction, expected to inject around 40 billion rand into the economy. * Potential rate cuts: half a percent by the end of the year, possibly 1% by mid-next year. * Inflation targeting at 4.5%. * Optimistic outlook with a 60-70% probability of achieving 3% GDP in 2025.

South Africa GDP

Delistings and Market Movements * Bell and Sasfin delisting announcements. * Other potential delisting candidates in the small-cap space. * Importance of constructing a portfolio that can benefit from economic growth and potential takeouts.

Bell weekly chart

Pick n Pay Rights Issue * Explanation of the rights issue and its implications. * Instructions for shareholders on handling nil paid letters. * Simon's perspective on waiting for dust to settle before considering Pick n Pay shares.

Today is the last day to trade before Pick n Pay rights issue kicks in. ° If you hold at close tonight you will receive 51.11 rights per 100 PIK shares, code will be PIKN ° You can sell then in market ° Or pay 1596c per each to get a new PIK share ° HAVE to do so by 30 July

— Simon Brown (@SimonPB) July 16, 2024

Property Stocks and Income ETFs * Analysis of South African property stocks and their recent performance. * Attractive yields in local and international income ETFs. * Recommendation to explore defensive income stocks and ETFs for potential investments. * Find local ETFs here.

Interest Rate Outlook * MPC and FOMC meetings' impact on interest rates. * Simon's forecast on rate cuts in South Africa and the US.

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Load Shedding Update * Milestone: 100 days of no load shedding by Friday. * Factors: New capacity online, Kusile unit 5 (800 MW), upcoming additions from Medupi and Koeberg.

Impact:

Reduced GDP loss (previously 1.8% of GDP due to load shedding).
Positive effect on inflation and economic stability.

Winners:

Retailers: Shoprite*, Pick n Pay, Spar (less expenditure on diesel).
Manufacturers: Invicta, Hudaco (benefit from increased customer stability).
Real Estate: REITs with shopping centers, reduced generator use.

Interest Rates * Jerome Powell's Speech: Potential for a single rate cut in November. * Impact on Markets: Minimal immediate impact, with expectations already priced in. * Local MPC Meetings: Predictions for rate changes on 19 September and 21 November.

Market Insights * Mr Price*: Ex-dividend yet the stock price increased, indicating strong sector performance.

Tesla Analysis * Market Share: Decline in second-quarter sales but maintains a significant market share (~50%).

Challenges:

Increased competition from other EV manufacturers.
Need for cheaper models.
Significant share dilution over the years.
Stock Performance: Historical highs and current rebound to 231.
Future Prospects: Continued relevance in the EV market despite competition.

[caption id="attachment_42560" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Tesla weekly chart | 02 July 2024[/caption]

SARS Tax-Free Changes * Impact: Minor changes affecting pro rata contributions for part-year taxpayers.

RSA Retail Savings Bonds * Rate Change: Significant drop in 5-year bond rate from 11.5% to 10.5%. * Action Required: Reset by the 20th for current holders. The form is here.

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Key Takeaways

MultiChoice Trading Opportunity: Potential for profit if the Canal+ deal goes through, despite current low stock prices.
Futures Trading: Importance of understanding margin, liquidity, and strategy when trading ALSI and ALMI futures.
Market Conditions: Current cheap valuation of SA Inc stocks presents opportunities, pending political stability and cabinet announcements.

MultiChoice Mis-pricing: * Discussion on the 125 Rand mandatory offer from Canal+ for MultiChoice. * Current stock trading at 102 Rand due to poor financial results. * Analysis of Canal+'s offer document, potential deal completion, and possible trading opportunities.

Index Futures - ALSI and ALMI: * Detailed overview of trading ALSI (All Share Index) and ALMI (All Share Index Mini) futures. * Explanation of points trading, margin requirements, and contract specifics. * Tips on trading strategies, including liquidity considerations and handling overnight gaps. * Trading as a side hustle, watch the video.

Market and Stock Updates: * Cabinet Announcement Awaited: Market reactions and fluctuations in the Rand. * Individual Stocks: Analysis of Mr. Price, Foschini Group, Nedbank, Spur, and CMH*. * Banking Sector: Observations on price to book ratios and the overall market valuation of SA Inc stocks.

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dd

Face-Ripping Rally on the JSE: * Surge attributed to the formation of a coalition government involving ANC, DA, and IFP. * Top 40 index rose 3.5%, a significant increase not seen since February 2018. * The rally, likened to the start of a marathon, suggests potential long-term growth, despite possible volatility.

RAND and Resource Stocks: * RAND trading under 18, affecting resources positively. * Potential for RAND to strengthen further, possibly reaching 17.

Coalition Government and Market Impacts: * The coalition’s stability is uncertain but critical for long-term market confidence. * JP Morgan upgraded South Africa from underweight to overweight, signaling positive outlooks.

SA Inc Stocks and ETFs: * Retailers like Shoprite, Mr. Price, Foschini Group*, and Truworths hitting 52-week highs. * ETFs for local investors, focusing on SA Inc.. * Recommendations include avoiding heavy Rand Hedge dual-listed miners in a strong RAND environment.

RSA Retail Savings Bonds: * Interest rates for RSA Retail Savings Bonds to drop in July. * Current rates: 11.5% for a 5-year bond, expected to decrease to 10.75%. * Opportunity to reset bonds before the rate change on the 20th of the month.

Inflation and Interest Rates: * Local CPI stable at 5.2%, within the target band but aiming for 4.5%. * US FOMC holds rates steady, hinting at a possible future rate cut. * Prospects for lower local interest rates and their impact on retail stocks and disposable income.

Market Opportunities: * Interest in retailers and brokers like Purple Group* and PSG Konsult, considering the potential increase in disposable income and trading volumes. * Positive long-term outlook, but caution against immediate full investment.

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US Inflation: * Core Inflation: Came in at 3.4%, lower than the expected 3.5% and previous 3.6%. * Impact: Positive market reaction, with US Treasuries under pressure, Rand strengthening, and Dollar weakening. * FOMC Outlook: Potential rate cuts anticipated towards the end of the year, possibly in November and December.

Company Results: SPAR:

Performance: Results were as expected, market responded positively.
Issues: Challenges in Switzerland, discontinued operations in Poland, and ongoing SAP implementation issues.

Foschini Group:

Performance: Strong results, market reacted favorably.
Highlights: Good performance in their online platform Bash and general improvement across brands.
Foschini Group and Clothing Retailers: Potential growth areas and resistance levels in stock prices.

Interesting Stock: * Contemporary Amperex Technology Company Limited (CATL): * Sector: Battery technology for EVs and corporate solutions. * Market Performance: Positive analyst ratings, promising future prospects.

Renergen*: * Helium Production: Helium is flowing, but further testing is required. * Challenges: Significant delays and ongoing testing phases, but progress is being made.

Santova: * Stock Movement: Changes in buyer and seller dynamics impacting stock price. * Insights: Importance of identifying market movers in stock trading.

Political Developments: * Coalition Talks: Ongoing with potential for an ANC, DA, IFP coalition. * Rand Performance: Strengthening in response to political stability and positive US inflation data.

[caption id="attachment_42378" align="aligncenter" width="849"] USDZAR | 12 June 2024[/caption]

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New Two-Pot Pension System:

Details on the implementation and implications for retirement savings.
Kicks in 1 September 2024
Can take up to R30k immediately, but this will be taxed.
Thereafter 30% of contribution go into a savings pot your can take out, it will be taxed.
Only use for an emergency, not holidays.

Rainbow's Return to JSE: * Analysis of Rainbow's re-listing after 17 years. * RCL Foods will be unbundling later in June * One Rainbow share for every RCL Foods share * But is Rainbow the best chicken stock on the JSE?

OPEC+ Impact on Oil Prices: * Members agreed to cut voluntary production cuts * Oil crashed * As did Sasol

[caption id="attachment_42315" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Brent oil | weekly | Koyfin

Q1 GDP Results: * Negative Q1 * Q2 should be slightly better thanks to reduced load shedding * But election will have worried investors.

Santova Stock Analysis: * Buyer at 750c * Seller at 760c

[caption id="attachment_42316" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Santova daily | 06 May 2024 | Koyfin

Coalition Talks: * ANC is talking with everybody * They seem keen on a governmnt of national unity * Rand volatile

Recent uploads onto Just One Lap * Three new Global ETFs from FNB with low TERs * The Power of Commodities with 1nvest: Navigating Trends and Unlocking Portfolio Diversity

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Election Results Impact on Markets * Slow ballot counting with three ballots, 18.7% counted. * CSIR prediction at 5%: ANC 42%, DA 22%, EFF 9%, MK 14%, Patrick Alliance 2%. * Market concerns about ANC forming a coalition. * Rand fluctuations: From 18.34 on Tuesday to 18.61 currently.

[caption id="attachment_42259" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Rand | 1pm 30 May 2024[/caption]

Pepkor Results: * 9.5% revenue growth. * 24.5% growth in fintech, now 12% of the business. * Pepkor sells 7 out of 10 smartphones in South Africa.

Woolies (Woolworths) Update: * Earnings down 20% for the year ending June. * Challenges in the clothing segment, further deterioration in footfall and discretionary spend. * Food segment performing better, but overall market reaction negative.

Zeda Results: * Revenue growth of 19%, HEPs up 12.5%, return on equity at 28.5%. * Surprise 50 cents dividend despite previous year-end dividend expectations.

BHP Billiton and Anglo American Merger * BHP walked away from the Anglo-American takeover proposal. * Speculation about potential offers from Rio Tinto or Glencore. * Anglo-American's disinvestment plans for De Beers and Anglo Platinum.

Market Insights * Discussion on Metrofile's challenges with dividend yield falling and pressure on share price. * SAB Cap Investments' exit from Metrofile. * South African Reserve Bank MPC rate announcement: No rate changes expected. * Upcoming central bank meetings: ECB, FOMC, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank. * Potential for future rate cuts in South Africa if inflation targets are met.

Commodity webcast with Johann Erasmus available on Just One Lap. * Insights into gold, PGMs, and copper. * Mention of the cheaper gold ETF from 1nvest compared to Absa GLD.

Changes in 10X ETFs: Local Dividend Aristocrat and Smart Beta merging into a Top 50 ETF.

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Nvidia's Financial Performance

Nvidia's Q1 Results:
Revenue up 262% year-on-year to $26 billion.
Net income up 628% year-on-year to $14.9 billion.
Gross margins at 78.9%.
Stock Split: 10-for-1 stock split set for 7 June.
Market Reaction: Stock traded over $1,000 in the aftermarket.

Anglo American and BHP Group * BHP's Third Offer: Anglo American rejects BHP’s third offer. * Deal Concerns: Issues with the price and risk of the deal. * Next Steps: Extended deadline for BHP's offer to 29 May.

Richemont's* Results * Richemont's Position: Holding steady in a tough luxury market. * Earnings Growth: Expected around 10% over the next few years. * Preferred Stock: Richemont favored over LVMH for its focused luxury product line.

Copper Market * Copper Boom: Strong performance but cautious outlook due to potential price pullbacks. * Investment Options: Local ETNs and offshore ETFs available for copper investment.

Structured Products * Educational Video: Power Hour session on structured products by Kevin Swartz from Standard Bank. * Features: Capital protection and enhanced upside.

Pick n Pay's Plan * Sales Update: For 52 weeks ending 25 February, bleak results expected. * Market Reaction: Stock closed 4.5% higher on news of a plan.

South African Economic Indicators * CPI Inflation: 5.2% for April. * Primary Surplus: Revenue exceeded expenditure (excluding interest).

Vehicle Sector Analysis * Companies Covered: Combined Motor Holdings (CMH), WeBuyCars, Motus, and Zeda. * WeBuyCars showed strong sales growth. * Motus and CMH had high dividend yields. * Zeda focuses on car rentals and mobility as a service. * CMH preferred for its consistent performance and dividend yield.

Home Building Sector Analysis * Companies Covered: Calgro M3* and Balwin. * Balwin struggling with higher-priced units. * Calgro M3's flexible pricing strategy favored in current market conditions.

[caption id="attachment_42201" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Calgro M3 vs Balwin[/caption]

Santova Directors' Selling * Director Sales: Recent director sales not seen as a significant concern. * Market Impact: Director selling viewed as a neutral action.

Disclaimer JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with JSE Limited. Views expressed are solely those of the presenter.

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Anglo-American vs. BHP Group * Anglo-American rejects BHP Group's offer, unveils its own restructuring plan. * Anglo-American to divest De Beers, Anglo-American Platinum, coking coal in Western Australia, and reduce spending on UK fertilizer businesses. * Focus on high-quality iron ore and copper assets. * Discusses shareholder likelihood of accepting Anglo-American's plan over BHP Group's offer. * Discussion on lab-grown diamonds and potential impacts on the market.

Market Insights * Tencent's positive results impact Naspers and Prosus. * NASDAQ and S&P close at all-time highs. * Analysis of South African market trends, influenced by gold stocks, Naspers, Prosus, Richemont, and Rand strength.

[caption id="attachment_42112" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Top40 close 15 May 2024[/caption]

Discussion on upcoming elections' market impact.
NHI bill signed, causing sell-off in healthcare stocks.
US imposing more tariffs on China, strategic implications discussed.

Company Highlights * Positive financial results from Calgro M3* and Raubex. * Calgro M3 reports good numbers, discusses share buybacks and future prospects.

[caption id="attachment_42113" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Clagro M3 close 15 May 2024[/caption]

Raubex impresses with strong financial performance, diversification strategies.

Preview of forthcoming corporate earnings announcements and economic data releases. Notable events include Richemont*, Palo Alto, Netcare, Astral, Famous Brands, Coronation, UK and US inflation data, FOMC minutes, and Nvidia results.

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Simon Brown

Introduction:

Simon Brown kicks off the episode discussing the current state of the Rand, noting its stability leading up to the elections despite fluctuations.
Speculation around ANC's momentum in the polls and potential coalition scenarios.
The impact of the dollar's weakness on the Rand's performance.

Structured Products: * Simon delves into the concept of structured products, which offer capital guarantees and enhanced returns through strategic investment mechanisms like options and bonds. * Announcement of an upcoming Power Hour with Standard Bank focusing on structured products. * Brief overview of actively managed certificates, also at next weeks Standard Bank Power Hour.

FNB's New ETNs: * FNB's introduction of new Exchange Traded Notes (ETNs), including a variety of indices and US-listed stocks. * Explanation of Compo and Quanto variations, tailored to currency impacts. * Highlights of recently launched ETNs, such as Nvidia, Booking Holdings, Eli Lilly, and Palo Alto Networks.

Amazon.co.za's Arrival: * Simon provides insights into Amazon.co.za's debut in South Africa, discussing initial observations and comparisons with local competitors. * Discussion on the potential impact of Amazon's entry on brick-and-mortar retailers and existing online platforms.

Exploring Small Caps: * Simon poses the question of whether local small caps on the JSE offer value or pose as value traps. * Definition and implications of value traps in investments, emphasising the importance of dividends and price appreciation. * Insights from John Biccard of Investec on potential post-election performance in small caps. * Examination of various small cap stocks, analysing dividend yields, price-to-book ratios, and earnings potential. * Simon's perspective on the opportunities and challenges presented by small cap investments, urging caution and strategic analysis.

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Rate Cuts and Economic Outlook * Jerome Powell's statement from the FOMC meeting: "Inflation remains too high and the path forward is uncertain." * No rate cut was announced at the FOMC meeting. * Speculation on upcoming rate cut possibilities and their impact on the economy. * Local economic outlook and potential changes due to the upcoming election.

BHP Group's Interest in Anglo-American * BHP Group's* proposal to buy parts of Anglo-American, leading to market speculation. * Complexities of the deal and potential impact on stock prices. * Analysis of BHP Group's interest in Anglo-American's assets, particularly in copper * Potential effects of the deal on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) and overall market sentiment. * Historical context of Anglo-American's significance in South Africa's mining industry.

Chinese Market and Economic Data * Overview of China's economic challenges and recent data indicating resilience. * Discussion on Chinese stock market performance and factors influencing consumer sentiment.

Oil Market Dynamics * Analysis of recent fluctuations in oil prices and underlying supply-demand dynamics. * Impact of US oil production and global economic conditions on oil prices. * Implications for South African consumers and petrol prices.

Retail Bonds and Sygnia ETF Changes * Update on retail bond rates for May and potential changes in June. * Sygnia's planned changes to ETFs, including the Fourth Industrial Revolution and Fang AI funds.

Clicks Results and Market Analysis

Review of Clicks' financial results and market response. * Analysis of Clicks' performance in the retail sector and future outlook. * Discussion on Clicks' valuation and potential investment opportunities.

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Capitec Results: * Simon analyzes Capitec's recent financial results, highlighting strong metrics such as return on equity, active clients, and app usage. * However, he notes concerns about the bank's expensive valuation compared to its competitors.

SARB Monetary Policy Review: Simon discusses the South African Reserve Bank's recent review, indicating a reluctance for rate cuts in the near future due to inflationary pressures and economic uncertainties.

Key takeaway from the bi-annual Monetary Policy Review of the @SAReserveBank:

Don’t bet on a domestic interest rate cut this year. https://t.co/mhRS5vKIFQ pic.twitter.com/sc5p9GPcf5

— Adrian Saville (@AdrianSaville) April 24, 2024

Sasol Woes: * Simon discusses Sasol's poor performance following a production update, expressing skepticism about its future prospects despite its low stock price.

Other Market Updates: Simon touches on Tencent's positive performance, gold and oil price movements, and the potential impact on global markets

I hold ungeared positions.

UK and Local Inflation:

UK inflation surprises at 3.2%, lowest in over two years.
US Fed unlikely to cut rates soon, waiting for FOMC meetings.
South Africa's CPI data for March at 5.3%, showing a positive trend.
Potential for SA rate cuts, depending on US decisions.

[caption id="attachment_41866" align="aligncenter" width="849"] SA Inflation 5.3% for March 2024[/caption]

China and Commodities: * China's GDP surpasses expectations at 5.3%, amid concerns over Fitch downgrade. * Export data reflects overstocking, driving prices down. * Despite challenges, China's market appears interesting.

[caption id="attachment_41867" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Chinese GDP YearONYear per quarter[/caption]

PGMs, oil, gold, and other commodities. * Gold remains strong, targeting $2500. * Recent attack on Israel by Iran affects oil prices.

WeBuyCars listing and potential market impact. Transaction Capital analysis and investor considerations. Purple Capital* Results: * Purple Capital swings back to profit, surprising the market. * Key financial highlights and insights into EasyEquities performance. * Exploration of new products and their impact on revenue. * Analysis of client cohort growth and its implications. * Positive outlook on Purple Capital's performance. * Expectations of potential price pullback.

Simon Brown

I hold ungeared positions.

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Sasol Secunda Reprieve * Recap of Sasol's recent developments. * Minister's agreement to Sasol's appeal regarding emissions at Secunda. * Stock bounce and support level analysis. * Target prices discussion and outlook for Sasol.

PGM Miners' Performance * Analysis of platinum group metal (PGM) miners' performance. * Notable increases in stock prices. * Consideration of factors affecting the industry, including production cuts and demand for catalytic converters. * Exploration of whether the current uptrend indicates the beginning of a bull market. * Discussion on supply and demand dynamics in the PGM market. * Mention of Sibanye Stillwater's* CEO's forecast. * Reflecting on year-to-date performance of PGMs. * Insights into the future trajectory of PGM prices and potential risks.

[caption id="attachment_41807" align="aligncenter" width="849"] PGM and miner moves for the month of April up to the 9th[/caption]

Fitch Cuts China's Outlook to Negative * Overview of Fitch's downgrade of China's outlook. * Analysis of implications for the Chinese economy. * Examination of the performance of Chinese stocks. * Commentary on factors contributing to China's economic struggles. * Exploration of potential effects on global markets.

WeBuyCars Listing * Preview of WeBuyCars' upcoming listing. * Discussion on the valuation and market cap of WeBuyCars. * Comparison with Transaction Capital. * Speculation on market demand for second-hand cars and implications for WeBuyCars' growth strategy. * Evaluation of WeBuyCars' disruptive potential in the automotive industry.

Inflation Targeting Discussion * Analysis of the South African Reserve Bank's inflation targeting strategy. * Exploration of the history and purpose of inflation targeting. * Evaluation of the current inflation target and potential for revision. * Discussion on the process and implications of lowering the inflation target. * Advocacy for starting the conversation on revising the inflation target to ensure long-term economic stability.

Simon Brown

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Commodity Market Analysis * Oil prices are on the rise, currently trading around $89 per barrel, indicating both demand and supply factors at play. * Factors affecting oil prices include supply disruptions from Russia and Saudi Arabia's production cuts through OPEC+.

Concerns about inflation are reflected in the rising price of gold, which is currently trading at all-time highs above $2300 per ounce.
Despite uncertainty, inflation is not expected to decrease soon, especially with increasing energy costs
Discussion on the delayed rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and the global outlook on inflation.

Implications of Goldfield's Chilean Mine Production * Goldfield's Chilean mine is expected to produce gold at significantly reduced costs in the coming years, potentially impacting global gold supply. * Analysis of the time taken for new mines to commence production, highlighting the challenge of meeting future demand.

Tax Collection Insights from SARS * SARS reports an additional R10 billion in tax receipts, contributing to a total of R1.7 trillion in tax collections. * While individual tax collections saw an increase of 8.2%, company tax declined by 9%, reflecting challenges faced by various sectors, including retail and mining.

Performance Review of ETFs (full list here) * Top performing ETFs in the first quarter of 2024 include those focused on international markets, particularly in technology and Japanese sectors. * Conversely, local ETFs, especially those tied to South African markets, experienced declines. * Analysis of factors influencing the performance of specific ETFs and their compound annual growth rates (CAGRs).

Simon Brown

Old Mutual Results: * Surprisingly strong results from Old Mutual. * Despite stagnant GDP growth and population decline, Old Mutual shows strong growth, indicating market share acquisition. * Expansion into banking sector questioned due to market saturation. * Stock analysis: Trading around 1184, showing potential support at 1150 and resistance at 1240-1280. * Considered cheap with PE ratio around 7.7 and dividend yield over 7%. * Market consensus predicts an average price target of 14.81. * Skepticism remains regarding the bank launch and overall upside potential.

MTN Results and Analysis: * MTN's earnings affected by Naira devaluation in Nigeria. * Earnings per share down 72%, impacted by tax issues and currency devaluation. * Stock analysis: Chart showing positive signs, with potential for short-term growth. * Market consensus includes three strong sells, five holds, and four buys. * Telco sector struggles due to price pressures and constant capital expenditure. * Limited upside potential for telco stocks, including MTN.

ADvTech* Results and Operational Leverage: * ADvTech demonstrates strong operational leverage. * Operational margins increase due to improved student occupancy rates. * Revenue up 13%, HEPS up 19%, and dividend per share up 45%. * Stock analysis: Notably increased in value but still offers potential growth. * Expectations for around 15% growth in the future. * Simon Brown expresses satisfaction as a long-term shareholder in ADvTech.

Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Meeting Insights: * MPC meeting concludes with no change in rates. * Governor's hawkish stance indicates possible rate cuts later in the year. * Inflationary pressures expected to persist due to global factors. * Delayed rate cuts expected due to inflation concerns.

SALTA Awards Highlights (full details here): * Simon Brown attends the SALTA Awards. * Satrix emerges as the big winner with 10 awards. * People's Choice Awards highlight popular ETFs, with Satrix Top 40 winning for the seventh consecutive year. * Introduction of a new award category for foreign ETFs. * Importance of industry events in highlighting the significance of ETFs and listed trackers.

Simon Brown

Simon holds ungeared positions.

Market Updates: * Recent news on Markus Jooste's fine and tragic passing prompts reflection on justice and mental health awareness. * Telkom's sale of its towers business for R6.75 billion highlights strategic shifts and potential opportunities in the telecom sector. * Ongoing rise in oil prices raises concerns about inflationary pressures and global economic impacts.

Market Analysis and Insights: Gold's Surge: * Gold prices hit new all-time highs above $2200, reflecting investor concerns and market sentiment following Jerome Powell's recent statements on inflation and monetary policy. * Gold mining companies show varied responses, with Pan-African, Goldfields, DRD, and Anglogold Ashanti experiencing gains.

Interest Rates and Economic Outlook: * Powell's announcement of no immediate rate cuts and a projected total of three cuts for the year signals a cautious approach towards inflation. * Rising interest rates pose challenges for companies with significant debt burdens, while those with ample cash reserves stand to benefit.

Inflation and Monetary Policy: * CPI data reflects higher-than-expected inflation rates, prompting speculation about potential rate cuts in South Africa and implications for economic recovery. * Abenomics, Japan's economic policy experiment, demonstrates the effectiveness of unconventional monetary measures in stimulating growth and combating deflation.

Company Updates and Reflections: Remgro Results: * Remgro's net asset value growth raises questions about the effectiveness of its management strategy, despite trading at a significant discount.

Remgro has grown its NAV per share by 5% p.a. since 2010. Over the same period, the ALSI TR index has done 12% p.a. If you expect this underperformance to continue (and nothing in their recent capital allocation decisions indicates otherwise), then a fair discount to NAV is…

— Piet Viljoen (@pietviljoen) March 19, 2024

Contrasting performance with Sabvest Capital highlights the importance of superior returns and effective capital allocation in investment decisions.

Sun International: * Strong financial results from Sun International underscore challenges and opportunities in the leisure and hospitality sector, amid shifting consumer behaviors and economic uncertainties.

Retire well, we're chatting with retirees about what they've learnt and any tricks they can pass on.

US Inflation Trends: * US inflation has remained stagnant at 3.2% since June of the previous year, defying expectations. * Despite initial projections, inflation has not reached the anticipated 4% mark, staying just above 3%. * Discussion on potential implications for the economy and monetary policy, including the possibility of a mid-year rate cut.

Local Property Market Concerns: * Review of recent challenges facing Pick n Pay and its impact on property stocks and landlords. * Analysis of Hyprop's trading update and its implications for the broader property sector. * Discussion on potential strategies for landlords facing challenges from tenant closures and renegotiations.

Quantum Food and Market Speculation: * Examination of recent market speculation surrounding Quantum Foods and its stakeholders. * Evaluation of market reactions to news events and projections for future stock performance.

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Financial Sector Insights: * Analysis of ABSA's poor financial results and the broader challenges facing the banking sector. * Comparison of valuation metrics and performance across various banking stocks. * Preview of upcoming industry event focusing on financial education and market insights.

Shoprite* Results and Market Comparison * Discusses the recent Shoprite results, emphasising excellent performance against a high base. * Highlights Shoprite's significant CapEx spending, customer savings, and market share gains. * Compares market cap of Pick n Pay and Shoprite, pointing out the latter's cash reserves. * Reflects on the historical revenue comparison between Shoprite and Pick n Pay over the past 20 years. * Shoprite's Competitive Position and Stock Analysis * Questions whether Shoprite is always destined to be an expensive stock. * Analyzes the current PE ratio, forward PE, and 10-year mean, suggesting that the stock may not be as expensive as perceived. * Shares consensus forecasts and target prices for Shoprite, indicating a potential undervaluation. * Expresses the belief that Shoprite at ±R270 might not be as expensive as it appears, drawing parallels with the valuation of Nvidia. * Shoprite's Success Factors and Pick n Pay's Struggles * Explores the factors contributing to Shoprite's success, including central distribution centers and efficiency. * Contrasts Shoprite's strategy with Pick n Pay's challenges, noting a decline in consumer satisfaction. * Mentions Pick n Pay's recent financial struggles, including a rights issue and debt increase.

Gold and Bitcoin at All-Time Highs * Addresses the unusual situation of both gold and Bitcoin reaching all-time highs simultaneously. * Discusses the fears driving gold prices, such as inflation, interest rates, conflicts, and global elections. * Highlights gold's potential target of $2,500 and the positive impact on gold mining profits. * Shares the performance of various gold mining stocks over the past three years.

Canal+ Offer for MultiChoice * Updates listeners on Canal+'s revised offer of R125 per share for MultiChoice, which is currently trading at R113.50. * Discusses the time value and risk value of the deal, expressing the view that this might be the final offer.

Finance Costs and Corporate South Africa * Examines the increase in net finance costs for Sea Harvest, attributed to higher interest rates. * Acknowledges the challenges faced by Corporate South Africa, including Eskom issues, logistic challenges, and rising interest rates. * Assures listeners that some of these challenges may start to fade away in the future.

Simon holds ungeared positions.

Nikkei 225 reached a new all-time high after 35 years * Historical context: peaked in December 1989, 82% drawdown by March 2009. * Factors contributing to the 80s crash: Yen protection, low rates, speculative bubble. * Current challenges: aging population, economic complexities, recent inflation. * Investment options: Sygnia JP (SYGJP) - JSE-traded, and Investec's structured product.

Warren Buffett's Annual Letter * Warren Buffett's annual letter to shareholders released. * AGM scheduled for May 4th, details about screening yet to be announced. * Historical and informative; available on BerkshireHathaway.com.

City Lodge Results * City Lodge results: Revenue up 10%, dividend up 20%, HEPS up 10%. * Occupancy at 61%, pricing power at 65%. * Challenges in margins due to increased focus on food and beverage. * Comparison with other hospitality stocks: Sun International, Southern Sun.

MultiChoice Canal+ Offer * Canal+ acquires 35.01% of MultiChoice voting rights, triggering a mandatory offer. * Takeover Regulation Panel ruling. * Speculation on Canal+ offer price, potential sweetening of the deal.

Bitcoin and Bitcoin Halving * Bitcoin trading around $59,884, near all-time highs. * Upcoming Bitcoin halving in April and its potential impact. * Local perspective on Bitcoin and its role in the market. * Bitcoin in ZAR trading over a million, emphasising its volatility. * Discussion on Bitcoin's market cap compared to traditional stocks.

Pick n Pay* Update * Pick n Pay's disappointing update: debt doubled, sales going backward. * Market's negative reaction reflected in the stock price. * Potential exit strategy if weekly close falls below 2022.

Simon holds ungeared positions.

Budget 2024 panel.

For the last many years AJM Tax has done a post budget panel which includes Simon Brown and this year was no different. Hosted in Cape Town the panel was;

Karyn Maughan, senior legal journalist at News24
Dr Albertus Marias, Director AJM Tax
Azhar Varachhia, Managing director Alpha plus Capital
Simon Brown, Just one Lap and MonewebNOW

Below is the AJM Tax one pager of budget highlights.

Pick n Pay* Chart Analysis * Resistance zone around 26, potential to touch 26.70 * Higher highs, higher lows, horizontal resistance * Target: 30 bucks to fill the gap * Comments on Pick n Pay's potential under Sean Summers * No need for a rights issue, potential market spook if it happens * Simon's position: Started building, considering more * Current status: Down 1.7%, trading at 25.30

Pick n Pay close 13Feb24 (daily)

Transaction Capital and WeBuyCars * Transaction Capital planning to list WeBuyCars * Unbundling process expected in March * Valuation: 7.5 billion rand * Key information: Founders' put option on Transaction Capital is off the table * WeBuyCar's strong performance in January with a record 14,000 cars sold * Market Cap of Transaction Capital: R6.5 billion * Opportunities and challenges in SA Taxi business * Overall assessment: Looking not too bad * Current stock level: 850c * Expectation of pro rata shares for Transaction Capital holders * Timing details expected in the circular

Gold Price Movement * Gold weaker despite US and UK inflation data * Current gold price and chart analysis * Simon's position in Anglogold Ashanti* * Observations on unexpected weakness in gold price after inflation data

Gold daily chart 14Feb24

Canal+ Offer for MultiChoice * MultiChoice facing a 105 rand Canal+ offer * Market sentiment: Canal+ likely to come back with a better offer * Current stock price: 104.63 * Speculation on possible offer prices: 120, 135, or even 160 * Market confidence in Canal+ making a mandatory offer

Global Market Trends and Dollar Strength

Dollar strength in global markets
DXY trading at 104.87
Money flowing into the US due to fear and concerns
Impact on Rand: Trading at 19.07
Market skepticism about inflation concerns

DXY (US$ index) 14Feb24 (daily chart)

Inflation Analysis * Recent US and UK inflation data * Market reaction to inflation numbers * Central bank concerns about reaching inflation targets * Jerome Powell's cautious approach and potential rate cuts * Local inflation expectations and potential rate cuts in South Africa * The challenge of getting back to the inflation target

I hold ungeared positions.

Disney results: Last week's big story was about tech, starting with Disney, a stock recommended here back in September at ±$80.

Key financials: Linear networks revenue up 9%, Direct-to-consumer up 12%, Parks up 16%
Direct-to-consumer still incurred a loss of $400 million
Consumer products, content sales licensing, and ESPN performance discussed
Overall, not a knockout result but not terrible; I remain a satisfied shareholder

Big move in streaming sports! ⚾️🏀🏈 Disney, Warner Bros., and Fox are joining forces to create the ultimate sports streaming app, merging ESPN, TNT, and Fox Sports (WSJ). ESPN alone was 18% of Disney's latest quarter revenue.$DIS $FOX $WBD pic.twitter.com/xSPBko0cMO

— App Economy Insights (@EconomyApp) February 6, 2024

Meta (formerly Facebook) Earnings: * Advertising revenue up 24% year on year to 38.7 billion * Other segments discussed, including Reality Labs (MetaQuest) * Net profit $14 billion, up 35%; stock surged 20% * Mark Zuckerberg's dividend income from the declared 50-cent dividend discussed * Positive sentiments about Meta's performance, particularly in comparison to other tech giants

Canal+ Offer for MultiChoice: * Canal+ made an offer for MultiChoice at 105 Rand per share * Market reaction, initial excitement, and stock movement * Simon's caution about potential risks and timing of the deal * MultiChoice's response: Board concluded the offer significantly undervalues the group * Canal+ continued to buy MultiChoice shares, now owning 35.1% * Discussion on the mandatory offer threshold and potential scenarios * Regulatory considerations: Foreign ownership rules and competition commissions + The price of the mandatory offer must be equal to; (i) identical to, or where appropriate, similar to the highest consideration paid by the bidder for those acquisitions and (ii) accompanied by a cash consideration, at not less than the highest cash consideration paid if the shares that carry 5% or more of the voting rights were acquired for cash. * Simon's conclusion: Canal+ likely to succeed, potential challenges, and market dynamics

Simon Brown

Breaking News: Canal+ Offer for MultiChoice: * Canal+, French TV business, offers 105 rand per share for MultiChoice minorities. * Synergies between the two businesses. * Legal considerations regarding foreign media ownership. * MultiChoice closed at 75 rand; market likely to respond positively.

Market Updates: * Hyprop reports positive festive trading for its tenants. * Transaction Capital plans to list WeBuyCars in March; potential value unlock. * Evergrande declared bankrupt with over 300 billion dollars in debt. * Hong Kong economy expanded 3.2% in 2023. * China overtakes Japan as the world's top car exporter.

Cristal Challenge Stock Picks: Richemont*: Luxury brand with potential in a recovering economy.

[caption id="attachment_41062" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Richemont weekly chart close 31Jan24[/caption]

Calgro M3*: Debt under control, potential dividend, well-managed company.

[caption id="attachment_41063" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Calgro M3 weekly chart close 31Jan24[/caption]

AngloGold Ashanti*: Gold as insurance; geopolitical concerns.

[caption id="attachment_41061" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Anglogold Ashanti weekly chart close 31Jan24[/caption]

Zeda: New listing, unbundling, potential growth.

[caption id="attachment_41065" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Zeda weekly chart close 31Jan24[/caption]

Mr. Price*: Positioned well in the retail sector, positive trading update.

[caption id="attachment_41064" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Mr Price weekly chart close 31Jan24[/caption]

Closing Remarks: Reminder to sign up for email alerts before live sessions.

Host: Simon Brown

Simon holds ungeared positions.

Host: Simon Brown Date: 1 February 2024

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Introduction: JSE Direct Episode 571 for January 25, hosted by Simon Brown. Simon introduces the idea of transitioning the podcast to a live format using Riverside, allowing viewers to see charts and interact during recordings.

Market Updates: Richemont*:

Stock surged 10% on better-than-expected trading update.
Identified as an opportunity last year when it pulled back to R2,500.
Trading at R2,653 at the time of the recording.

AVI:

AVI delivered a strong update, but struggling with I&J.
AVI focuses on defending margins, willing to lose volumes for profitability.
Potential sale or listing of INJ discussed.

Woolies*:

Mixed trading update.
Struggles in Australia, especially with David Jones, while food segment remains strong.
Concerns about the performance of the clothing segment.

Clicks:

Mostly a strong update, struggles in UDP (wholesale drug distribution).
Selling price inflation averaged 7.5%, higher than the previous period.
Clicks achieved highest-ever daily sales in late December.

Economic Updates:

December spending records discussed with BankserveAfrica.
Expectations for rate announcements from local and European central banks.
Hawkish tone expected from local governor; questions about Jerome Powell's stance.

Global Market Highlights: All-Time Highs:

S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones hit all-time highs.
Russell 2000 still 20% off its highs, considered in bear market territory.
India's stock market surpasses Hong Kong, becoming the world's fourth-largest share market.

China in trouble, is it over? Should we be worried? * Simon reflects on recent data and developments in China. * Population decrease and aging population noted. * Speculation on a potential $278 billion spending spree to support the market. * Concerns about state-directed capitalism and common prosperity policies. * Recent crackdowns in gaming, education, and potential implications for healthcare. * China's focus on national defense and potential impacts on Taiwan. * China's shift towards a more inward-looking and self-focused path.

Conclusion: * Speculation on the impact of China's changes on global growth, commodity prices, and investments. * Simon announces plans to start recording the podcast live, with notifications on social media and newsletters. * Acknowledgment of the podcast's longevity (571 episodes) and a request for reviews.

Closing: Simon Brown signs off, encourages reviews, and mentions future live recordings.

Reminds listeners to take care of themselves and others.

Simon holds ungeared positions.

In this episode of JSE Direct, Simon Brown discusses various market topics, including the bleak outlook of the Hang Seng Index due to Chinese GDP results.

Positive news for Grindrod with the Maputo Port Development Company's impressive performance.

The rise in uranium prices driven by increasing demand for nuclear power plants, he found two US listed ETFs benefiing from this trend.

[caption id="attachment_40966" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Spot uranium price[/caption]

The approval of 11 Bitcoin ETFs by the SEC. When does the JSE get a crypto ETF?

Do elections matter for markets? Upcoming elections in 2024 across 70 countries. Simon explores the question of whether elections truly matter for investors, emphasising historical examples where market reactions were short-term and highlighting the importance of focusing on long-term investment strategies amid political volatility.

Now for the eleventh year in a row, we kick off the new year with a prediction show.

Marc Ashton, Keith McLachlan and Simon Brown put their heads on the block with three wild and woolly predictions for the markets for 2024 followed by a call on the Top40 and ZAR for the year ahead.

Importantly we start each show with a review of the previous year’s predictions and you’ll find the 2023 predictions show here.

Position your portfolio for 2024.
Top local ETFs for 2023.

Simon Shares * Transaction Capital (JSE code:TCP) results swung into a massive loss, no surprise. SA Taxi loss making but overall H2 was better then H1 in all three divisions. * Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE) results also swung into a loss. But as a discretionary consumer business, why is everybody so surprised? + Average client has 1.45 products. This seems low, very low. + Philippines not yet regulated, but they not giving up. + Project delays. * Tigerbrands (JSE code: TBS) show a tough environment and RFG (JSE code: RFG) may offer better value. * Local Q3 GDP at -0.2%.

Gold at all-time highs.

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I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Brown

Share buybacks and stock compensation, the bad and the ugly Share buybacks are good right? The company uses their free cash to buyback shares which reduces the number of remaining shares such that each share has a higher claim over future profits which adds to their value.

Further they're tax efficient in that paying dividends results in dividend tax.

BUT;

Firstly, in cyclical stocks you need to be buying back at lows, not highs and the companies usually have no free cash at lows, so either they don't buy back or they do so at highs when they have the cash. Horrid value destruction.
Secondly, some companies are buying back but also issuing new shares to staff, at times at a rate faster or similar to what they're buying back. This is then effectively an underhand salary to staff. This is especially an issue with large tech stocks, see examples below.
Thirdly, new share issues are considered non-cash, but ultimately they are cash as you gave somebody real shares that have future claim on profits.
Fourthly, often acquisitiosn are done with stock increasing the outstanding shares. Many will see this as a free deal as shares don't cost. But they do cost as they reduce every other shares value and if the company has been buybacks, well then they paid cash for those shares, just indirectly.

Locally we do see buybacks, but share issues are relatively small so the impact is less shares and more value per share.

Using IFRS accounting diluted HEPS uses the share count of all outstanding shares PLUS all promised shares not yet delivered. These are basically options that could become shares and gives a way better reflection of the profit, even thugh not yet issued they will potentially come to makret and be issued.

Apple (Nasdaq code: AAPL) has been buying back shares and as such over the last decade it's outstanding shares is down about 38%.

Apple shares outstanding

Meta (Nasdaq code: META) has also been buying back, but they also issue shares at such a pace that over the last decade shares outstanding is basically flat.

Meta shares outstanding

Charts from Koyfin 15% discount for first 2 years

Simon Shares * US October CPI was 3.2%, down from 3.7% in September (after peaking at 9.1% in June 2022) and markets absolutely loved the data. Expectations for Fed rates is now no more raising and cuts starting maybe as soon as the 19-20 March or 30 April - 1 May meeting. * Shoprite (JSE code: SHP) trading update shows they still knocking it out of the park and taking market share. * Woolies (JSE code: WHL) trading update had more excuses tha a five-year old caught eating all the picnic ice cream. * Decent Stor-Age* (JSE code: SSS) results with ±10% yield and discount to NAV of ±25%. The yield is nice, but you can get the same in cash right now. But when rates start coming down the yield is more impressive and lower rates could see higher valuations. * A global luxury ETF

Simon Brown

The problem with telcos

I have long said that telcos such as MTN (JSE code: MTN) and Vodacom (JSE code: VOD) is that they are essentially utilities and should be priced as such.

But actually that statement is wrong.

Sure voice (who still calls using voice?) and data are utilities like water and electricity.

BUT the telcos have a problem, capex. Yes we're using more and more data but prices keep coming down, I recently bought an effective 80 GB for little over R400. And all that while capex is increasing. They're busy rolling out 5G but as soon as that's done it'll be tine for 6G. It's a never ending tread mill.

Simon Shares * Brent oil is weak and telling us a story about global growth

Clicks (JSE code: CLS) vs. Dis-Chem (JSE code: DCP) results contrats.
REITs unloved and cheap, time to buy?

Simon Brown

Updating minister Gordhan's portfolio

Public Enterprises Minister Pravin Gordhan has declared his holdings, we reviewed his portfolio last time in April and there are some interesting changes, he is fairly active in buying and selling. Most notable is the total value is up almost R2million?

Simon Shares * Purple Group (JSE code: PPE) have introduce a platform fee. Certain behaviours will see the fee waived and I speak to Charles Savage on my MoneywebNOW show Thursday morning. * Renergen (JSE code: REN) results show a loss, LNG output for phase 1 ±40% and helium on stream by year end. Phase 2 has been split into two parts and the conditions of the $750million is not a Nasdaq listing but rather a capital raise with a listing for part two of phase 2. * MTBPS was bleak as expected and we could see some tax hikes in February. * Gold almost had its highest ever monthly close for October.

I hold ungeared positions.

Living small, an update

Back in 2017 Simon and his wife down scaled into a small (relative) apartment and also got rid of one of their cars again. As they now move again Simon updates in their experience of living small.

Simon Shares * Famous Brands (JSE code: FBR) results. Revenue up and HEPS lower. * TigerBrands (JSE code: TBS) loses their CEO and posts a decent trading update. * Jamie Dimon said central banks’ forecasts have been “100% dead wrong”. * Sasol (JSE code: SOL) trading update, lots of movingp arts, but the market not trusting management? That said stock is cheap and we're seeing some upward movement on price.

hh

Renergen* (JSE code: REN), now what?

Late September the price started breaking down and end September a Tweeter started posting about them.

I'm not going to defend every point raised, that's the job of the company and after an initial poor response, Monday saw a more detailed SENS.

Paid research. Ultimately all research is paid for. Sometimes it is paid for by the company and here the issue is disclosure.

I think the bigger issue is a complete lack of disclosure in our industry. By FinTwit or the fancy analysts, albeit assume the latter is always talking their book, which is fair.

Perhaps the biggest point from this last few weeks is; * Know your stock. Like really know it. When I buy a new holding I put together a lis of 3-5 things I like and 3-5 risks. I may be wrong on any of them, but it makes me do the digging and at least have a decent view of both sides of the story. * Careful of "new" news. It may be accurate (or it may not), but it also often lacks detail which maters. This was mostly the case with the Twitter news on the stock.

Now what for Renergen * Results next Friday. * LNG is flowing. * Helium is not, but company has said they expect the leak repaired this month. * In short they are in the same place as they were before all this started. BUT. * They need to do a US capital raise and list in the Nasdaq. A low share price makes this much more dilutive. How this will play out I have no idea.

I hold and continue to hold Renergen*. It was never going to be smooth sailing and the risks are real. Yes they have the gas and helium in the ground, phase one is half working but phase two is large, complex and expensive with real risks.

Simon Shares * Middle East war could get really bad for inflation and rates if oil prices rise markedly. * Decent Calgro M3* (JSE code: CGR) results. * Horror Pick n Pay (JSE code: PIK) results. * Local ETF total returns over the last five years.

I hold ungeared positions.

There are bold traders. here are old traders. There are no bold and old traders.Bold traders

What is a bold trader and why do they die out?

Wild swings for the fence No position size management Stop loss for losers Enter outside of system and process

Simon Shares * Famous Brands (JSE code: FBR) trading update, Spur (JSE code: SUR) really has taken the mantel of best QSR/restaurant business on the JSE. * Very strong US jobs and upward revisions from previous month. But wage inflation only 0.2%. So market was confused but ended happy. Tuesday also saw US 10-year yields moving lower which excited everybody. But I am sceptical, this is only one data point and I think the FOMC hikes at their 31 Oct/01 Nov FOMC meeting. * Water crisis. This is going to hurt and it not going away any tine soon. Which businesses get hurt most? * We found a US government bond ETF paying monthly.

US 10-year yields highest since 2007 Bad news all round (unless you buying).

Almost 40% of US government debt expires in the next four years and will be re-issued at markedly higher rates, 9x higher in some cases.

Money flowing into US bonds for yield.

This sees less money entering the stock market
Sees a stronger US$ (check DXY strength, all currncies weaker against US$)

Hits valuations lower as higher rates makes cash worth less in the future, but so far the market has ignored this fact.

Simon Shares * The Top40 closed negative for the year on Tuesday. This after being almost +12% in late January and trading at all-time highs.

Top40 close 26 September 2023, negative YTD Fed and SARB hold rates steady - but very hawkish.
StatsSA "South African hotels recorded an occupancy rate of 47.3% in July 2023, up from 45.8% in June and 45.5% in May.". But still below the ±50% pre-pandemic occupancy levels.

Simon Shares * Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) results "2023 was extraordinary".

Chart by Koyfin 15% discount for first 2 years

Richemont (JSE code: CFR) getting interesting, let's see if support holds.
[caption id="attachment_40005" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Richemont weekly ~ 07Sep23[/caption]Nampak (JSE code: NPK) nil paid letters are trading, code NPKN. Remember either sell them or take up the rights.
Calgro M3* (JSE code: CGR) trading statement, HEPS +20% for the first six months ending August.
The latest PMIs out of Europe all quite weak, not only declining from the previous month, but lower than the preliminary numbers from the middle of last month
Profit from the Longevity Boom with Healthcare ETFs
The tax ABCs of buying a property

Simon Brown

I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Shares * Bidcorp - excellent * AvdTech - really good, stock at all-time highs * Stadio - good student growth * Motus - poor HEPS, good dividend * Woolies - not bad, but wow only got R1.1billion for David Jones * Sasol - impairments galore * Adcock Ingram - capacity utilisation is weak * Aspen - good second half * KAP - tough out there * Super Group - strong numbers

I hold ungeared positions.

dd Spur and Calgro M3, two stocks I have been watching and both have seen their prices break higher.

Calgro M3 (JSE code: CGR) builds lower income housing and after a few troube years os back on track.
- Latest results were for year ending February 2023.
- PE ±2.5%
- Cash on hand ±R172million, market cap is ±R440million
- NAV 951c (including unused land valued at ±30% of NAV) while share price 365c
Spur (JSE code: SUR) sells fast casual food and the pandemc hurt. Latest results have some base effect as they are for six months ending June 2023.
- Forward PE ±5x
- Dividend yield ±14%
- Spur remains their key brand.

Simon Shares * Thungela (JSE code: TGA) results saw HEPS down 67% which is the same as the price of coal over the last year. * UBS cuts China's GDP growth forecast for 2023 from 5.2% to 4.8% * CoreShares ETFs name change to 10X. * Local inflation for July was 4.7%, a really strong number and better then the market expected, this even as administrative prices kicked in during July. Transport was negative for the period.

Charts by Koyfin 15% discount for first 2 years

China in trouble as economic data keeps on disappointing? Chinese data keeps disappointing, every since the -7.5% export data from April. Expected was a strong rebound after they lifted zero-covid restrictions. But not happening.

Just this week;

Among 70 Chinese cities, 49 saw a fall in new home prices month-on-month in July from 38 cities the previous month.
China suspends youth unemployment data after record high.
Over the last decade they’ve halved the number of indicators they publish.
Retail sales lower
Industrial production lower
fixed asset investments lower

Simon Shares * MTN (JSE code: MTN) results had an interesting update on their fintech business. reports were they would list it, but for now Mastercard has taken a stake valuing the business at ±R100billion while MTN market cap is ±R250billion. * Satrix is shutting down three of the ETFs they got from Absa. They are the Volatility Managed ETFs. They two small and not core to teh Satrix startegy. If you hold them on close 29 September you'll be paid out the NAV. The three are; + STXMEQ + STXDEQ + STXGEQ * Buying the Nasdaq local or offshore? Which is better? * Every time is actually different * How to double your retirement fund

Koyfin 15% discount for first 2 years

Aspen looking cheap? Aspen (JSE code: APN) announces a acquisition in Latin America for US$290m on a price/sales of ±3x and PE of ±5x. This is a classic Stephen Saad sort of deal. Strong cash generation to pay down the debt.

After having gone quiet when the balance sheet case under serious pressure (with debt of ±R50billion) Aspen is back?

Chart looking good for a break higher.

Forward PE of ±12x is below 1 standard deviation over last twenty years and looking cheap.

Charts by KoyFin, click here for 15% off a two year subscription.

Simon Shares * FOMC raised 0.25% as expected last week. In the press conference Powell suggested no recession coming and with inflation for June at 3% has the fed successfully threaded the inflation needle without any serious repercussions (so far)? * MTN (JSE code: MTN) trading update, 169c cost for 'currency moves' likely the Nigerian Naira devaluation. * Prosus (JSE code: PRX) agrees to sell part of PayU to Rapyd for $610m. They’ll keep the Indian market part of the business. * How is your crypto taxed? * Nominal vs effective interest rate, know the difference.

Central bakers have very few tools to achieve their mandates around inflation (and in some cases also protecting a currency and aiding GDP growth). Interest rates have a blunt lagged effect and their only other tool is what they say and we need to understand this central banker speak.

Last week it was the South African Reserve Bank MPC rate announcement that left prime unchanged for the first time since November 2021. The vote was close and the governor spent a lot of time saying they had not finished hiking, this was just a pause.

The Federal Reserve FOMC has been saying the same about pausing before more hikes.

But any hikes will surely be data dependent which is what they always say. So the threat of more hikes is central bak speak for don't get too excited.

Simon Shares * Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) trading update shows just why they are the best food retailer in South Africa, even probably the world. This as they had to spend R1.1billion on diesel for the 52 weeks. This will hurt margins, but they're still profitable. * The Rand is on a tear, and this time it is not US$ weakness nor commodities booming. It's just good old fashioned people buying our Rand. * Global luxury ETF, better than buying the watch * Reducing tax on interest earned

I hold ungeared positions.

As expected Local CPI for June came in at 5.4%, lowest in twenty months and well within the 3%-6% target range from the South African Reserve Bank. Yes base effect as June last year was the first +7% inflation print of this cycle.

When do we start talking rate cuts? Truthfully not yet, a pause would be nice eve as the gov always targets 4.5% not the range.

Simon Shares * MPC is Thursday, I expect no raise and can we start talking about rate cuts yet? * USDZAR currency forecasts from Goldman Sachs: + End 2024: 16.00 + End 2025: 15.00 + End 2026: 14.00 * Decent UK inflation as it dropped to 7.9% for June vs. expected 8.2%. But still highest in Europe. Italy 6.9%, Germany 6.4%, Netherlands 5.7%, Euro area 5.5%, France 4.5% & Spain 1.9%. * Pick n Pay (JSE code: PIK) very poor update. "SA sales declined 0.3% (0.0% like-for-like)" while "internal selling price inflation" was 9.5%, so they went backwards at a fairly alarming rate * ArcelorMittal South Africa (JSE code: ACL). Monday CFO quit after just two weeks and then Tuesday a horror update. * Transnet selects a private port operator to run the container terminal in Durban. * Koyfin 15% discount for first 2 years * The Indian Nifty 50 at all time highs and we have an ETF for that.

Simon Shares

US inflation for June was 3.0%, expected was 3.1% and previous 4.0%.
- Next FOMC meeting is 25/26 July.
I think they still do a 0.25% rate hike, but then maybe pause for good, well until cuts start next year.

Nasdaq100 special rebalance to cut the 'Magnificent Seven' to "address over concentration in the index by redistributing the weights." Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla are the magnificent seven. They account for 55% of the index.

Effective close 21 July
Done twice previously; December 1998 and May 2011.
The combined weight of the five stocks with the largest market caps will be set to 38.5%, currently it is 46.7%.
Nasdaq100 is a modified market capitalisation index. So market capitalisation is not the only consideration, albeit is the biggest contributor.
Overall this has already seen some selling in the big five, and buying in those that are expected to be weighted higher. Final weightings will be announced after close in Friday 14 July.

The Four Horsemen of Big Tech A phrase coined in the late 1990s for Microsoft, Intel, Cisco Systems and Dell Computer as they stormed higher in the dot com craze.

All had horrid collapses and took o a decade plus to recover their dot com levels and Cisco and Intel have been modest investments at best with Dell delisting.

Are we seeing the same with the magnificent seven?

Yes, no, maybe.

It is different this time, they all have real tech and make real profits. But have they gone wild on the AI bonanza? Absolutely. Now sure, AI will only get better and all seven have a real chance of be the real leaders in the space (in different ways). But valuations are stretched and this current earnings season is important as are the next few as well.

Simon Brown

Two-pot system is confirmed, here all the details

Starts 1 March 2024
All future reg28 and pension contributions will be split into two pots
- One third savings
- Two thirds investments
You can withdraw the savings component before retirement
Tax still payable
Existing funds will convert automatically into the new two-pot system
- Of existing funds R25,000 will be transferred into the savings pot
- Concerns about everybody taking out their R25,000 and crashing the market are over done.

Simon Shares * Top ETFs so far in 2023, so +50% returns in just six months. * New-vehicle sales in SA +14% for June. But last year June Toyota Durban was still closed after flooding. But still a decent number.

Pep (owned by Pepkor) has started offering credit to customers, they own Capfin so have experience in lending.
China will control exports of some metals used in the semiconductor industry. Gallium and germanium are considered “minor metals.” They're not rare but costly to produce and China supplies ±80%
SARB says fight to tame inflation monster is paying off. First time he has even hinted that maybe inflation is coming down.

Simon Brown

SA Inc watch list. Building a list of stocks that are cheap, very cheap, and could give good return n the next year or three. Criteria;

Must be profitable, so positive PE ratio
Must be cheap, so PE below 8x
Small as in market cap under R8billion
No REITs

Using Koyfin I get 46 stocks including REITs and detail them in the podcast. I'll create a watchlist on Google docs and share that link in time.

What about just the mid cap ETF from FNB? FNBMID. Sixty stocks but problem is the top holdings are; Sibanye-Stillwater, Discovery, Nedbank, Bidvest and Remgro. That's already ±25% of the ETF and none really for my requirements as above.

Simon Shares * Local crypto exchange, Revix, suspends trade or withdrawals on 24% of client crypto assets as their South Korean partner has issues with a provider. * Naspers (JSE code: NPN) & Prosus (JSE code: PRX) plan to remove the complex web of cross holdings to a simple structure whereby Naspers owns 47% of Prosus who owns the stake in Tencent (Hong Kong code: 700). * Good Invicta (JSE code: IVT) results. * Rand all over the place. * Brent weak, surely suggesting the global economy is weak. But so far the promised 2023 recession has not arrived, remember the hard vs. soft landing debate of late 2022?

I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Brown

Local CPI 6.3% for May (lowest since April 2022) from 6.8% in April and vs expected 6.5%. A very good number and we should see June below 6% as June last year was the first +7% in this cycle at 7.4%. Simple base effect should put some serious pressure on inflation over the next few months.

So is inflation largely over locally? Probably.

Can we start talking about when the MPC starts cutting rates? The next MPC rate announcement is July, the day after we get June inflation and we'll see that the governor says. But cuts are maybe fourth quarter fo this year, at soonest. Standard Bank thinks another 0.25% hike later this year and consensus is cuts only starting next year.

Simon Shares * UK core inflation rises from 6.8% to 7.1% and CPI 8.7%. They are in trouble. * Standard Bank (JSE code: SBK) trading update. Very much two parts, bad debts are ugly and profts are lookign great. They also expect a 0.25% rate increase in the second half of the year? * Afrimat (JSE code: AFT) deal to buy Lafarge for ±R1billion. String vertical intergration and potential to boost profits to essentially be paying around a 3x PE. They also say that it looks lie constructions has bottomed in 2022. * Omnia (JSE code: OMN) results. Agri struggling with margin pressure, ining booming while chemicals slips. But overall good and stock si cheap. * Transaction Capital (JSE code: TCP) secures funding for Gomo. Securing the capital was a major market concern and now they have a bak using their balance sheet and they earn a margin. Good deal but market still selling. * How to Diversify Your Commodity Exposure With the PICK ETF * Dividend portfolio paying monthly

dd

Disappearing dividends Just this week Spar (JSE code: SPP), MultiChoice (JSE code: MCG) and Telkom (JSE code:TKG) have all cut dividend to zero.

We had big dividend payer Coronation (JSE code: CML) drop theirs to provision for the SARS fine and historically good dividend payer Pick n Pay (JSE code: PIK) reduce theirs.

This shows the pain that companies are experiencing, not all, but certainly some, It perhaps also shows quality, for example Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) increased their dividend.

The problem is we love dividends for cash flow and they tend to grow ahead of inflation, sometimes well ahead of inflation. They're also taxed better than traditional income from bonds or cash (albeit not as low as CGT). But the downside is that any dividend can disappear at any time.

For investors such as myself, reduced dividend is not a big problem. I like the cash flow but don't need the income for expenses. For those living on dividends the pain is real. If the income is required you need a good amount of bond and cash investments and REITs that aside from the pandemic pay consistently, albeit REITs reduced over the last 5 or 6 years.

Another option is something like dividend aristocrats (we have a local and offshore ETF for these). Here we have companies with decade long track record of paying dividends, but remember Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH) was in the local dividend aristocrat ETF, so even this is not guaranteed. But a basket or ETF works well.

Simon Shares * US CPI for May 4.0%, lowest since March 2021. * Latest IEA global oil market outlook: peak oil combustion by 2028? + Petrol demand to peak this year + Road transport oil demand peak 2025 + All transport by 2026 + Overall oil for combustion peak 2028 * ZAR 18.33

Massive moves expected in Richemont (JSE code: CFR) on Thursday 15 June as the index rebalances. Could see ±R4billion of selling.
I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Brown

Simon Shares * SEC sues Binance and CEO for U.S. securities violations. * SEC Charges Coinbase for Operating as an Unregistered Securities Exchange, Broker, and Clearing Agency. * First quarter GDP was 0.4% and we avoid a technical recession. * Pepkor (JSE code: PPH) price slide. * Tigerbrands (JSE code: TBS) horror results. * Oceana (JSE code: OCE) results knock it out the park.

Sun City visit. Excellent resort, but very quiet which many commentators suggest is because it's a random weekend in June?

I sent this past weekend at Sun City, vacation club. Some thoughts.

The resort is world class, well maintained with a ton to do for kids and adults.

1/n pic.twitter.com/29yaV2GP8b

— Simon Brown (@SimonPB) June 5, 2023

Buying SA Inc. Not yet but building a watch list with the plan being to buy 10-15 stocks over the months ahead.

Why?

Inflation comes down
Rates decrease
Load shedding ends (Renewable Energy Grid Survey points to 66 GW development pipeline in South Africa).
Government finds a way out of the ICC Putin arrest warrant mess.
Rand improves (already 100c better than the R20/US$ of last week)
I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Brown

Simon Shares * MPC raised rates by 0.5% makes prime 11.75%, highest since 2009. The aim I suspect was to protect the rand, and that totally did not work as the currency hit its worst ever levels. Where will the rand go next? Does it ever strengthen again? * RSA Retail Bond rates reset this morning and I expect the 5-year fixed to potentially increase by a full 15% and the CPI linked also reset and I also expect an increase there.. Will have update on the website. * Tsogo Sun Gaming (JSE code: TSG) announced in their results last week they had acquired a ±10% stake in City Lodge (JSE code: CLH). Why? Also those were good results, much cheaper than other in the space. * Zeda (JSE code: ZDD) results were poor. I was looking for FY 400c of HEPS, that's now seems a long shot. Debt is large, no dividend and short-term vehicle rentals is only a little above a quarter of pre-pandemic levels. I was holding and have sold. * TigerBrands (JSE code: TBS) results were a shocker but not unsurprising? Volumes flat while revenue was +16%, hello inflation. Got some debt, but totally manageable. Load shedding hurting, consumer broken and inflation all over. But the stock trades at ±1.5x book value (see chart here), last tine this happened was 1998 when prime hit 26%. * Spar (JSE code: SPP) trading update, ouch. Is Shoprite (JSE code: SHP) eating everybody's lunch? * Don't forget to action your Purple Group (JSE code: PPE) rights issue. You have until Tuesday to either sell the rights or take them up. * Meta (Nasdaq code: META) fined Euro1.2billion by the EU, but stock rises on the day. These fines, even large ones, are just a cost of doing business for the mega large cap tech stocks? * Nvidia (Nasdaq code: NVDA) gets all the AI hype and love to a trillion dollars.

I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Shares * Bond ETFs yielding ±10%. That's chunky and they can go in a tax-free account. * New INCOME ETF from CoreShares.

Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE) rights issue. If you held the share yesterday at close on Tuesday 23 May you will see PPEN in your account. 10.20567 for every 100 Purple shares you held.

Each PPEN (letter of allocation or LOC as some are calling it) entitles you to buy 1 new Purple share at 81c.

You can take up that right and buy, or
You can sell them in the market

If you do NOTHING by 6 June they disappear with ZERO value

Sanlam will take their R45m and of the R105m public offer they will take up to ±R76m of the R105m if nobody else does. Existing large shareholders have promised to take up their rights at ±R28m. So at the end of the day they will get the R105m.

Simon Brown

I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Shares

I have been talking about a cracking (broken?) consumer for a few months now. Two recent surveys show exactly this data.

BankservAfrica’s five-year review of Take-home Pay and Private Pensions in South Africa for February 2018 – February 2023
- "The average nominal salary Take-home Pay Index, increased from R12,573 to R15,438, +22.8%." But CPI was 26.6% and take home pay had kept track until last year.
Debt Busters Debt Index | Q1 2023 survey
- "Nominal incomes were 2% higher than 2016 levels, however when cumulative inflation growth of 40% is factored in for the same seven-year period, consumers’ purchasing power diminished by 38% over this period.".
Rand trades at worst level ever on Friday, R19.5169/US$.
Transaction Capital (JSE code: TCP), last week I sad the worst may be behind them. Well with the ZAR collapsing equalling more inflaiton and rates and petrok increases. Maybe not for SA Taxi or WeBuyCar.
Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE) rights issue. Full details on 18 May. It will be R105m from Purple Shareholders and R45m from Sanlam at Easy Equities level. Total R150m
Local PGM production down 14% in Q1.
Calgro M3 (JSE code: CGR) results saw HEPS just above 150c while the stock trades at ±300x. Value or value trap?
Sold my Sun International (JSE code: SUI) as price go backwards and I protecting profits. Excluding dividends ±70% return since November 2021.
OpenAI Sam Altman goes before US Congress to propose licenses for AI.
- Pulling the ladder up behind you to stop others.
  - I have been using ChatGPT via Bing and Google Bard. For investors they mostly useless.
Octodec (JSE code: OCT) results. Large discount to NAV and DY ±14%.
Investing in mega trends
I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Brown

Simon Shares * Transaction Capital (JSE code: TCP) results where pretty much as expected. Management have essentially thrown the kitchen sink at everything. H2 will be tough but likely a little better. FY24 a clean slate. But market does not agree with me. + Nutun doing good + WeBuyCars under pressure, no surprise, consumer cracking + SA Taxi real ugly, but as detailed in trading update

US unemployment 3.4%. April CPI 4.9%.

The end of the US$ Bretton Woods essentially created teh US$ as a reserve currency

Now all commodities trade in US$

The end of the US$ is as old as time, really kicked off with the advent of the Euro in 1999.

But who take over?

China, no?
BRICS, that’s only China.
Euro, but they don’t want a strong Euro and the world doesn't want the Euro either.

That said, the US$ will lose influence over time. It has been and will continue to do so. One day it may well be over, but we're a very long way from that.

Simon Shares * Implats (JSE code: IMP) trading update saw production down and costs up. That's squeezing margins and going to hurt. * Kumba (JSE code: KIO) nice boost in production, but iron ore prices are falling. Will hurt Afrimat (JSE code: AFT) as well. * Combined Motor Holdings (JSE code: CMH) results sees them on a PE of under 5x and DY of ±13%. But return will be mostly from dividends, ±650c over next thirteen months = ±22%. * Renergen (JSE code: REN) results. Smaller loss, but no profit as they ramp up Phase 1. A deal with Timelink for LNG and contracts with Consol & Italtile most of Phase 1 LNG (±50 tons a day) is under contracted sale. * MTN (JSE code: MTN) update from Ghana and Nigeria look good. On PE ±11x, stock is cheap, albeit not without risks (always for MTN).

All my index trades have been stopped out.
I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Brown

Simon Shares * Coronation (JSE code: CML) trading update, aside from the massive SARS judgement (and hence no dividend), not bad. But not yet time for buying as sellers persist. * Purple Group (JSE code: PPE) results saw a loss for the six months ending February 2022. But lots of extra one off expenses (expected for a growth business) and a tough market and they still have excellent growth potential. I continue to hold.

I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Brown

Simon Shares

Local CPI 7.1% for March up from 7.0% in February. Expected was 6.9%. Core inflation 5.2% vs expectations of 5.1%.
- Rates higher for longer.
Reviewing Minister Pravin Gordhan's portfolio. Too many stocks, why not more ETFs?
Platinum at all-time highs in rands. This as it trades at more than 50% off the all-time US$ highs from 2008.
Still long all my index trades.

Time to sell Capitec* (JSE code: CPI) as results show them as ex-growth? * Return in Equity (RoE) 26% * Cost-to-income (CTI) 39%. * Impairments +80% and worrying the market

But my worry is it is priced +2x valuations of the other four big banks and it is now largely a mature bank. Sure low cost base, but I do not think it deserves that high valuation so am likely exiting after holding since 2009.

I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Shares * US inflation for March at 5.0%, better then expected and initial response form markets was to jump higher. Big wait now is for first week of May and the next FOMC rate decision.

Current open trading positions, long everything

My 7/21 trading system has me long all the indices I trade as below;

Nasdaq 22Mar23 @ 12,740
S&P500 21Mar23 @ 4,056
Euro Stoxx 50 03Apr23 @ 4,317
ASX200 05Apr23 @ 7,240
FTSE100 11Apr23 @ 7,793

Simon Shares * Combined Motor Holdings* (JSE code: CMH) strong trading update puts the stock on a PE of under 5x and a dividend yield of ±15%. A great well run company, but what will get the price moving higher or do we just live off dividends?

I hold ungeared positions.

Strong first quarter returns Q1 2023 return[/caption] Top40 stocks, top and bottom performers pic.twitter.com/zwZlJkRpwX

— Simon Brown (@SimonPB) April 3, 2023

Simon Shares * MPC announcement Thursday. * Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE) git the 120c bottom of the range, but has suddenly rallied. * Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH), we now know what as the "Board agrees on a radical draft plan to enter into an insolvency process with creditors".

The problem with dividends - they not tax efficient. They are great

But tax.

Dividend Withholding Tax (DWT) is 20%. The maximum Capital Gains Tax (CGT) is 18% after the annual R40k exclusion.

And DWT you pay along the way, eroding your return over time whereas CGT you only pay at the end.

Warren Buffett Berkshire Hathaway has never paid a dividend and he says they never will. Rather sell he says, more tax efficient.

Share buys backs are more efficient, but done at high valuations destroy capital.

No easy answer, but maybe we should temper our love?

I hold ungeared positions.
Backup power on a budget
Is the spread important when buying an ETF?

Simon Brown

Simon Shares

Federal Reserve FOMC raises 0.25% and the market drops as Fed says almost at the top.
Local CPI comes in slightly higher at 7.0%.
- MPC meets next week, hold on rates or another +0.25%?
Credit Suisse 'sold' to UBS.
Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH) votes against the debt deal, now what? Bankruptcy surely?
Transaction Capital (JSE codeL TCP) bounces, where's the value?

Simon Shares

Silicon Valley Bank collapse, does this put a pause on US rate increases? FOMC next Tuesday/Wednesday.
- "Moody's cuts outlook on U.S. banking system to negative, citing 'rapidly deteriorating operating environment'"
Miss expectations and get slammed
- Transaction Capital
- Absa
- MTN
- Multichoice
Hold winners, ditch laggers.
- Sun International (JSE code: SUI) vs. City Lodge (JSE code: CLH).

ff

I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Shares * The local Q4 GDP came in at -1.3%, worse than expected -0.4% and shows the real pain of load shedding and Transnet issues. Q1 2023 not expected to be any better. Every set of results mentions load shedding and retailers are spending ±R1billion a year on diesel. * Rand is looking weak, very weak. * Grindrod (JSE code: GND) had good results and are clearly benefiting from the failure of Transnet ports. * Bank results are looking good with Firstrand (JSE code: FSR) very strong and Nedbank (JSE code: NED) good and doing a R5billion share buy back.

Simon Shares * Budget 2023 show, audio is fixed * Solar as a service * Retail Savings Bonds five-year fixed now at 10.5% * Satrix takes over most Absa ETFs

City Lodge* (JSE code: CLH) results * Stale bulls * Dividend of 5c * Occupancies at 57% * Debt gone * Cater for business, who are Zooming more * Overall a bit light

Spur (JSE code: SUR) results vs. Famous Brands (JSE code: FBR).

I hold ungeared positions.

Budget 2023

Pieter Janse van Rensburg ~ AJM Tax
Tony Leon ~ former leader of the opposition & ambassador
Lesego Majatladi ~ Stay Latatude
Simon Brown

Great insights into the budget, who should be our finance minister and even the Coronation* (JSE code: CML) Con Court appeal against the SARS judgement.

Simon Shares * Sasol (JSE code: SOL) update was all about troubles with power, ports and rail. In other words SA infrastreucture. * Pick n Pay (JSE code: PIK), they spending R60million a month on diesel. * US unemployment is the lowest since 1969 at 3.4%. * Grey listing for South Africa. The Financial Action Task Force will announce their decision at their 24 February meeting.

A paradigm shift is happening AI has suddenly landed and it's going to be wild.

I rate it with some other major technological paradigm shifts;

The personal computer in 1974
The internet in 1990 (yes we had dial up bulletin boards before then, but that wasn't internet).
Smart phones with the iPhone in 2007

All were horrid when they launched. But now they drive humanity.

Facebook getting their ads working AI after Apple locked them out.

Search is changing and will Google be the new winner.

We use Dali-E for images on JOL

Chat GPT is great, but it is not accurate. That is actually a design feature, but this is only version 3.5 and already lots of people are using it for real world practical examples.

How is it going to change investing and trading? I don't know but I know many, myself included, are trying things to see what works and what actually adds value.

Quick update, I buying Coronation (JSE code:CML) at ±3750c.

View my portfolio ==>> www.SimonBrown.co.za

Simon Shares * MPC Thursday (26 January) raised 0.25% and FOMC Wednesday (1 February) expected is 0.25%. * Capco (JSE code: CCO) good trading update and dividend. * Renergen* (JSE code: REN) proposing US ADRs with Nasdaq listing in time to raise last capital required for phase 2.

Stocks losing money from load shedding All listed companies are mentioning load shedding in their updates.

Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP); "The Group's additional spend on diesel to operate generators across our Supermarkets RSA store base in order to trade uninterrupted during load shedding stages five and six amounted to R560 million for the period."

For the six months ending 2 January 2022 operating profit was R5,113billion. So load shedding costing the group ±10% of operating profit?

Astral (JSE code: ARL) selling chicken R2/kg below cost of production. "A large portion of the capital expenditure commitments amounting to R737 million, outlined during the F2022 results presentation, has been placed on hold given the current adverse market conditions. The Group has however committed funds towards backup electricity generation solutions to reduce the adverse impact of load shedding."

Simon Shares

Renergen* (JSE code: REN) finally gets phase 1 helium flowing.
ArcelorMittal (JSE code: ACL) update, everything they warned about went wrong.
MPC Thursday (26 January) and FOMC Wednesday (1 February). Raising 0.25% each.

Stocks making money from load shedding * Reunert (JSE code: RLO). High voltage cables and circuit breakers. * Mustek (JSE code: MST). Green energy division. * Famous Brands (JSE code: FBR). Lights out need food. * Mahube Infrastructure (JSE code: MHB). Wind and solar operations paying a dividend (DY ±13.5%) and trading below NAV. * Kibo Energy (JSE code: KBO). Are they a going concern? They issued shares to pay a £19,635.44 invoice.

This is well worth a listen, some important data points from @StefMarani that help understands the road ahead .. https://t.co/6CGNRd6QUe

— Simon Brown (@SimonPB) January 24, 2023

@simonbrown_za ArcelorMittal SA horror update as the second half was loss making #investing #share #jse ♬ original sound - SimonBrown * I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Shares * Top40 is all about China. Economic data from China for 2022 released this week was weak, but better than expected.

Which food retailer offers the best value? Food inflation is still high, 12.7% YonY for December.

But likely peaked (good rains, diesel lower and reducing input costs)

Preferred food retailer?

Always Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP). But expensive, forward PE 19.5x
Pick n Pay (JSE code: PIK). Forward PE 20.5x and not as good as Shoprite.
Woolies* (JSE code: WHL). Exited disaster that is Australia. Forward PE 15x and if they can also fix clothing, real winner.
Spar (JSE code: SPP). CEO and chair exiting after bad press recently. Poland issues but forward PE 10x.
I hold ungeared positions.

Now for the tenth year in a row, we kick off the new year with a prediction show.

Marc Ashton, Keith McLachlan and Simon Brown put their heads on the block with three wild and woolly predictions for the markets for 2023 followed by a call on the Top40 and ZAR for the year ahead.

Importantly we start each show with a review of the previous year’s predictions and you’ll find the 2022 predictions show here.

I've been buying some Zeda on the JSE.

Here's why
A bit about the business
Risks
Possible target price

Oil below US$ 80, the first time this year.

- OPEC+ made no production changes.
- EU price cap on Russian oil. Done via insurance, but will it work and if it does will oil not move higher?

Simon Shares * Nampak (JSE code: NPK) results and book build. Worth a speculative punt after the rights issue is done? * Solid Sygnia (JSE code: SYG) results and strong dividend. * RMI becomes Outsurance on the JSE, code OUT. * China zero-covid. * Local GDP, better than expected. * Worst ETFs of 2022 * Position your portfolio for 2023

Simon Shares

MPC upped rates 0.75% with more expected in the new year.
Solid City Lodge* (JSE code: CLH) update with November occupancies at 60%.
Rand below R17/US$ and more strength expected.
Top40 sneaks green for the year after a rough ride.
- This is why we hold
- And don't panic
- Markets recover

Chinese covid-19 cases hitting new records, by a long way.

This has real implications (bad ones) for the global economy as the second largest is going to be struggling in 2023.

Chinese covid cases since the start of the pandemic

I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Shares * Renergen* (JSE code: REN) did a small capital raise and the market not liking after they said earlier in November they wouldn't do one. * Cilo Cybin will not be listed on the JSE. They planned to raise R500million but only got R20.5million. Those who applied will be refunded. * Local October CPI was 7.6%, up from 7.5% and vs. an expected 7.4%. Expect MPC to do 0.75% and two 0.25% next taking prime to 11%.

Locally 2022 has not been all horror It feels really bad but the JSE has had a fair year with sen decent winners as the two images below show.

JSE Top40 stocks year-to-date. (winners)

JSE Top40 stocks year-to-date. (losers)

Binance buys FTX.

No, they walk away.

FTX goes bust.

Keep your coins in a hardware wallet, not on the blockchain unless you trading it. I use a Ledger Nano S Plus.

What's the future for crypto with another exchange hitting the wall?

Simon Shares * Results wrap; + Purple Group (JSE code: PPE) + Stor-Age (JSE code: SSS) + Ninety One (JSE code: N91) + Transaction Capital (JSE code: TCP)

I hold ungeared positions.

So you bought a stock and it's done good and you're making money, maybe even lots of it.

Now what?

First, why did you buy it? That'll often help you decide when to sell.
Second, is it still going up? Have a line in the sand, using charts, at which you sell.
Third, is the news still all good? Bad news means to sell.

Simon Shares * US inflation due Thursday, expected is 7.9%. * Binance buys FTX * Time for gold? * Murray & Roberts (JSE code: MUR) sell Clough for very little but get rid of a lot of inter-company debt. * Leisure stocks looking good, especially the Sun International* (JSE code: SUI) chart. * "However, due to the immense interest from the public, as well as international investors to date, we decided to extend the period by 2 more weeks. This will allow for the investors that missed the deadline, to be part of this amazing opportunity to own shares in Cilo Cybin Holdings.". Not a good sign. * Elon Musk sells Tesla (Nasdaq code: TSLA) shares worth US$4billion after saying in April he would sell no more. But this should be enough to keep Twitter afloat for the next year. * Meta (Nasdaq code: META) to fire 11,000 workers, about 13% of the workforce.

I hold ungeared positions.

After the results, are any FAANGs worth buying? FAANGs, a mixed bag with Meta (NASDAQ code: META) the biggest loser.

Is it worth buying or what of the other FAANGs?

Apple (NASDAQ share code: AAPL) and Amazon (NASDAQ code: AMZN) would be my picks. Why buy the losers?

Simon Shares * RMI, I got confused between RMI and RMH last week. Former is becoming Outsurance. * Capital & Counties (JSE code: CCO) trading update shows strong leasing activity at Covenant Garden. * Octodec (JSE code: OCT) results, discout to NAV +50%, dividend yield ±14%. * Sasol (JSE code: SOL) convertible bond issue essential a back door right issue. Bonds expire in five years and convert into Sasol shares at US$20.3863. * RSA Retail Savings bonds now offer 11.5% fixed for five years.

fff

Go where the money is The Fini15 (JSE code: STXFIN*) is the only green index so far in 2022 and the strongest bank YTD? Absa (JSE code: ABG).

Simon takes us through the journey of finding the strongest sectors and then the strongest shares to find a trade where the money is.

Simon Shares * Niche JSE listed property stocks, there are a bunch of them and they're mostly looking good. * Famous Brands (JSE code: FBR) results are back at pre-pandemic levels. * MTBPS * Buy triggers on Nasdaq and S&P500

My lazy system has triggered buys on both S&P500 and Nasdaq. A close above last night's close and I'll be long pic.twitter.com/8HAisLdPZr

— Simon Brown (@SimonPB) October 26, 2022

I hold ungeared positions.

Murray & Roberts (JSE code: MUR) horror update.

"working capital requirements are especially acute"

"financial results for the six months period ending 31 December 2022, to be at least 100% down"

This is not South Africa at all, it's Australia and the US. We've seen Wilson Bayly (JSE code: WBO) walk away from their Australian operations.

Low margins and bankers not keen on bonding projects are going to crunch this industry globally. I would suggest Aveng (JSE code: AEG) is not immune either.

The only time this industry really made money was in the run-up to the world cup, and they were colluding to get operating margins of +5%. So really this is a bust industry.

That all said, decent results from Calgro M3 (JSE code: CGR) while we wait for Balwin (JSE code: BWN).

Simon Shares * MTN (JSE code: MTN) ditches Telkom (JSE code: TKG) over their Rain talks. * Pick n Pay (JSE code: PIK) results. Not bad but the market hated selling the stock down 9.3%. Is the issue valuation? Forward PE is ±29c vs. Shoprite (JSE code: SHP) is on ±21x. * Combined Motor Holdings (JSE code: CMH) has great results driven by car rentals surging. But it going to be tough going from here. * UK inflation returns to a 40-year high of 10.1%.

Simon Shares * Remgro (JSE code: REM) plans to unbundle its stake in Grindrod (JSE code: GND). There were ideas that maybe Remgro would take out Grindrod, but the unbundling is going in a different direction and Remgro unbundles shares they don't want. Remember also that after the unbundling expect weakness in the Grindrod share price for a few weeks. + They've held them since 2011 and hold a 24.81% stake + For every 100 Remgro you'll receive 30.70841 Grindrod shares. + Last day to trade (LDT) is 11 October 2022. + You'll receive them with a base cost that Remgro paid, that value is still to be determined. * Barloworld (JSE code: BAW) trading update is not bad. The big news is that they plan to list Avis by year-end. * Tiger Brands (JSE code: TBS) trading update was solid off a low base. The chart looks bullish as it rose +10% on Monday after the update. Chart looking decent and a potential delisting target? * The UK is an absolute mess.

Here the UK 5, 10 & 30 year bonds for September .(with correct carts) . Just September pic.twitter.com/hMj5yP65bC

— Simon Brown (@SimonPB) September 28, 2022

Rampant Dollar The US$ Index (code: DXY) is at twenty-year highs and within a few percent taking out the highs from the early 2000s and heading back to levels last seen in the mid-1980s.

The reasons are simple and two-fold;

The world is scared and fear sees investors rushing to the safety of the US$.
Rising rates in the US now see the US ten-year treasury bills trading around 4%, the highest level in over a decade. So investors can flee to the US$ and buy 10-year bills for a ±4% return.

Importantly this is hitting every currency in the world.

Has earnings implications for US companies selling products offshore as those profits are now lower due to US strength.

When does the strength stop?

In the short-term a pullback is likely.
But as long as fears remain the strength will continue and could continue well into next year.

What to do?

Don't panic.
Consider some JSE listed currency ETFs.
Continue with your offshoring strategy.

The tables have turned. Emerging markets are much more resilient against the US Dollar than the rest of the G10. Year-to-date, the Dollar has risen a stunning 15% against the G10 (black), but only 5% against emerging markets (blue). EM is the new standard bearer for stability... pic.twitter.com/ToaQvQB9DS

— Robin Brooks (@RobinBrooksIIF) September 27, 2022

hh

Simon Shares * FedEx (NYSE code: FDX) spooks the market by withdrawing guidance and saying demand is collapsing. * Thungela Resources (JSE code TGA) went ex-dividend to 6000c. * Wilson Bayly (JSE code: WBO) is letting their Australian operations go bust, not giving any more financial assistance.

Has inflation peaked? * Local inflation down at 7.6% for August from 7.8%. * US August inflation at 8.3% from 8.5%. * UK August 9.9% from 10.1%. * EU 10.1% up from 9.8%. * Europe and UK still have a winter of energy crisis to contend with. * US and local looks to have topped, but energy/petrol still needs watching. * Food inflation remains high and remains a risk. * A recession will dampen demand and help inflation lower. * Transport costs are down.

BUT, what of interest rates? The problem is getting back to target.

Locally 3%-6%
US 2%

Rate increases still coming, likely into the new year before pausing.

Then the long wait for inflation to get to target (or near) before rates start coming down. In the US this is at best 2024 but probably 2025. Locally rates may start moving lower in early 2024.

Simon Shares Trading * Trading in the Zone – Mark Douglas (detailed review) * Trend Following – Michael Covel (detailed review) * Reminiscences of a Stock Operator – Edwin Lefevre * Market Wizards - Jack Schwager * The Complete Turtle Trader: How 23 Novice Investors Became Overnight Millionaires - Michael Covel

Investing * The Little Book of Common Sense Investing - John C. Bogle * One up on Wall Street – Peter Lynch (detailed review) * Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits – Phil Fisher (detailed review) * Effective Investor – Franco Busetti * The Little Book that Beats the Market - Joel Greenblatt

General * Thinking, Fast and Slow - Daniel Kahneman * Fooled by Randomness - Nassim Taleb

Simon Shares * Anthony Clark on small caps * Purity baby powder products were recalled by TigerBrands (JSE code: TBS) due to traces of asbestos. * PSG (JSE code: PSG) unbundling effective at close on Tuesday. Holders at the close will receive + 3.87 PSG Konsult (JSE code: KST) + 1.82 Curro (JSE code: COH) + 0.12 Kaap Agri (JSE code: KAL) + 1.04 CA Sales (JSE code: CAA) + 1.02 Stadio (JSE code: SDO)

The bear and bull case for investing in Shoprite Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) results saw the stock down 7.5%. Let's dig into what the market maybe didn't like.

Only 10% earnings growth?
- With one week less and the 2021 riots in the numbers, decent albeit not knock the lights out.
Only 600c dividend for the full year?
- Very much in line with the average.
Expensive on PE of over 20x?
- Always is, but mid-range is about 15% lower. So yes, maybe a little more than usual?
Opening 275 new stores?
- Cost and are they cannibalising their other stores?
RSA operating margin 6.8%?
- The top end of the long-term range, worries that it may move lower?

But Shoprite remains one of the best food retailers globally and a core holding in my portfolio. I have bids in the market at around R170 which would put it on a PE closer to the mid-range from the last decade.

Sixty60 grew 150% and remains the absolute market leader in the grocery delivery space.

Checkers Xtra Savings has 24.7m members and it turning into a bank account.

I hold ungeared positions.

Sold my Murray & Roberts (JSE code: MUR)

Murray & Roberts weekly chart

Not a lekker chart, I've held for a while, but am now out #JSE pic.twitter.com/BKKP4HOLhr

— Simon Brown (@SimonPB) September 4, 2022

Simon Shares * Save R500k with a deposit. * ETF closing prices are an absolute mess. * Cashbuild (JSE code: CSB) results see them coming back to earth after a pandemic boost. * Education stocks all published results. ADvTECH (JSE code: ADH) is my pick, but all showing student growth and cash generation. * Shoprite (JSE code: SHP) gets permission to turn their money market account into a bank account. Grindrod (JSE code: GND) currently runs the service for Shoprite and African Bank is buying Grindrod Bank. * Walmart (NYSE code: WMT) is set to make an offer to the Massmart (JSE code: MSM) minorities for the remaining 47% at 6800c. * Netflix (Nasdaq code: NFLX) plans to price its ad-supported plan at $7-to-$9 per month with about 4 minutes of adverts per hour. * Purple Group (JSE code: PPE) back at 203c, always be very careful of casing a news story (the Asia deal announced last week with very few details). * Tsogo Sun Hotels (JSE code: TGO) changes its name on 7 September. They will become Southern Sun Limited (JSE code: SSU). * UK inflation, Goldman Sachs now saying 22% is possible next year. * Sun International (JSE code: SUI) strong results. Consumers under pressure shouldn't hurt too much as they mostly target higher LSMs and they paid the first dividend (88c) since 2016. Currently, ±3200c is resistance.

Greylisting Financial Action Task Force (FATF)

Cracking down on money laundering and funding terrorism.
Greylisting can reduce a country's capital flows by as much as 7.6%, according to an IMF working paper.
Cabinet has approved a raft of new amendment bills but leaving it late, very late.

Our deadline is September/October after being put on the watch list last year.

The important questions; * Will we get greylisted? * What happens if we do? * If greylisted, how do we get off the list?

I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Shares * Nasdaq (650 points), S&P500 (80 points) & Euro Stoxx50 (22 points) trades all closed. FTSE100 still going currently +100 points. * Old Mutual BEE deal, will go into details, but it only closes in late October so no rush. * Spur (JSE code: SUR) looking very good. + PE ±15x and DY ±5% + From the Spur earnings call "And we know that only 18% of the South African adult population represents 80% of economically viable consumer segment." - Revenue at record with space to get margins back to pre-pandemic levels. Net income margin was ±5%, historically over 20%.

[caption id="attachment_36416" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Spur; revenue, net income, NI margin[/caption]Afrimat (JSE code: AFT) Gravenhage manganese mine deal failing due to the Water Use License being materially different. They raised ±R650million last month.
Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE) does a deal in Asia.
Kap Industrials (JSE code: KAP) good results and great insights into other industries.
Citi now says UK inflation to hit 18% early next year (last week they said 15%).
Sasol (JSE code: SOL) pays a dividend, 1470c.

Sasol: To answer a separate Q:
The EBIT profit split is:
•Energy: 58%
•Chemicals: 42%
(Despite the high chemicals contribution, it is amazing to see how closely Sasol’s profit still conforms to the old back-of-a-matchbox calc of 5% of the Rand oil price.)

— Karin Richards (@Richards_Karin) August 23, 2022

I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Shares * BHP Group* (JSE code: BHG) results, have we peaked? * Absa (JSE code: ABG) results, but maybe the ore important point of the results is their expectation that prime will hit 11% early in 2023. * Chip shortage seems to be easing. * Nasdaq is in a bull market, +20% off mid-June lows. * Brent oil falling. + Current petrol price reduction is 260c for September. * UK inflation is 10.1% for July. * Charles Savage tells us his fav ETFs * Rochelle Writes, pay down debt or save more with high rates.

Thungela resources (JSE code: TGA) still a buy? R60 dividend, 40% forward DY

HEPS 6723c, forward PE 2.5x

Mis-priced at listing, unbundling often cause this to happen.

Ukraine's war gave it new legs.

Risks

Coal price
Rand strength
Ukraine war
Transnet
I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Shares * Renergen* (JSE code: REN) the Central Energy Fund has successfully completed their due diligence on the R1billion, final approval is still required. * Mpact (JSE code: MPT) results. * US jobs data and unemployment continue to belie the recession talk. * US inflation for July was 8.5%, a good number. * A gallon of gas has fallen below $4 in the U.S. for the first time since March. * Credit Suisse has lowered its 2023 UK GDP forecast to -0.6% from 0.5%; expects the UK to enter a recession from Q4 2022 until Q3 2023. * Elon Musk sold $6.9-billion (R14.5-billion) of his shares in Tesla (Nasdaq code: TSLA) – his largest sale yet – saying he may need the cash if he has to buy Twitter (NYSE code: TWTR).

Embrace the risk * Investing is about risk * Without risk, there is no reward * Without risk, you are saving * But the risk needs to be reasonable and the returns realistic

I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Shares * Massmart (JSE code: MSM) update, retail margins are being squeezed, the exception is clothing retail. * Thungela Resources (JSE code: TGA) very strong trading update. * JSE (JSE code: JSE) results, strong. * Nancy Pelosi lands in Taiwan and markets don't really care and China will complain - but this is not leading to war. * Uber (NYSE code: UBER) finally hits cash flow positive. * OPEC+ 100,000 b/d output hike, expectations (hopes?) were for 4-5x that and the second smallest increase since 1986. * Earn 11% with Retail Savings Bonds

What's the only thing we control in markets * The price we pay * Everything else is beyond our control * So use your one power carefully

Simon Shares * New energy rules for South Africa. Who wins? * Silverleaf Investments on Easy Equities. Know what you're buying. * Food retailer updates, Shoprite (JSE code: SHP) winning. Pick n Pay (JSE code: PIK) bounding back and Woolies (JSE code: WHL) struggling. * Cashbuild (JSE code: CSB) and Mr Price (JSE code: MRP) updates show consumers under pressure * IMF upgrades SA GDP growth for 2022 to 2.3% up from 1.9% they expected in April. * Results from Kumba Iron Ore (JSE code: KIO) and Anglo Platinum (JSE code: AMS) * US data Wednesday and Thursday. * Omnia (JSE code: OMN) was ex-div 800c on Wednesday and is now back in the longer-term channel. If you've been waiting to buy, now's your chance.

I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Shares * Local June inflation, 7.4%, MPC tomorrow. * BHP Group* (JSE code: BHG) update, they are worried.
ArcelorMittal South Africa (JSE code: ACL) trading update says global growth and recessions fears "present challenges for the outlook of commodities and steel demand in the next 12 to 18 months.". * China's holdings of U.S. debt fell below $1 trillion for the first time since 2010 * Alviva (JSE code: AVV) delisting at 2500c. * Brent oil trade keeps on trucking, buy below $100 exit $113.

Brent oil
Nasdaq, triggered a buy, waiting for confirmation which is a close above 12,250 while 7 EMA remains above 21 EMA.
Building resilient portfolios for tough markets
Lithium & Battery Tech ETF
Stats and data on 95 years of bear markets. How much longer? How much lower?
I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Shares * US June inflation 9.1%, and core inflation was also up a 5.7%! * Still stage 4. Rand continues to weaken. * Back backs between 4 July 2022 & 8 July 2022 + Naspers JSE code: NPN) bought 659,095 shares at an average price of R2 648.3315/share for R1.745 billion (US$104.73 million). + Prosus (JSE code: PRX) bought 6,240,339 PRX shares at an average price of €67.1361/share for €418.95 million (US$428.59 million). * SARB now considers cryptocurrencies as a financial asset and will create regulations around them. This means cryptocurrencies can be listed on SA exchange platforms but the process will take 12-18 months. * Dividends, love them but be careful. * But we also need to remember a few important things about dividends. * They can disappear as we saw in 2020. Even the most stable dividend payer can stop paying. REITs which have to pay them by law being a REIT structure) stopped paying because payment would see them fail their solvency tests. * They are backwards-looking. A high dividend yield is certainly attractive, but is it because the price has been falling? Could this be a warning of a dividend cut? * Cyclical stocks (think commodity stocks) pay massive dividends sometimes, then nothing for years. * Boards can change the cover ratio. This is the percentage of HEPS they pay as dividends. In tough times they can cut them. As the company matures they pay more. * Progressive dividends are the worst. The idea is that every year the dividend goes up a set percentage regardless of profits. A few local stocks have tried the idea, all have abandoned the idea. * Cash dividend vs. script dividend. I'll usually take the script.

Reg28, proposed a two-pot system
Sam Beckbessinger: My fav ETFs

Simon Shares * Still stage 6. Rand continues to weaken. * Naspers (JSE code: NPN) and Prosus (JSE code: PRX) both are holding well after the hard run the previous Monday on results and buy-back news. * Resources under pressure, all of them. * Supply chains adjusting + - Just in time is now just in case - Higher inventories - Higher costs - More localisation

Upcoming events; * 13 July ~ To short or not to short with Markets.com * 14 July ~ JSE Power Hour: Building a resilient portfolio for tough markets

Simon Shares * Episode #500. Huge thanks to all, I go into some background about the show. Where and how it started, lessons learnt and more. * Stage 6, the Rand lost 30c. * Sun International* (JSE code: SUI) update for five months to 31 May 2022 shows they are nearly back at pre-pandemic revenue and this while we still had some restrictions and fewer international travellers. * Naspers (JSE code: NPN) / Prosus (JSE code: PRX) results. Tencent (Hong Kong code: 700) is 125% of profits. The other businesses are all loss-making and in tough markets. They plan to sell down Tencent and buy back Prosus shares, but the discount to NAV remains around 50%, even after a massive move on the announcement. * Grindrod (JSE code: GND) good update and share has been flying. This remains a very cyclical business and right now the cycle is paying off. * Invicta (JSE code: IVT) saw strong results albeit some accounting points improved them a bunch. * JSE (JSE code: JSE) trading update is surprisingly strong with HEPS expected +24%-32% for six months ending June.

I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Shares * Thungela (JSE code: TGA). Coal prices doing great, production is good but rail is the problem but HEPS is expected at 5800c. If we double for the full year we can expect ±R116 and a dividend of ±R100? * Stor-Age (JSE code: SSS) results are not exciting but steady. * Omnia (JSE code: OMN) results were really strong, another special dividend and good future prospects. * Orion Minerals (JSE code: ORN) raises money to get their Prieska up and running. Expected to take some 19 months. * Amazon prime coming to South Africa next year. It will seriously challenge Takealot, owned by Naspers (JSE code: NPN)). * City Lodge (JSE code: CLH) trading update show them cash flow positive with occupancies back in profit.

I hold ungeared positions.

Crypto in trouble Not an inflation hedge nor a store of value. Just another risk asset. The problem is as QE ends and rates rise, will it still see a strong inflow of money? I think not.

It's not the end crypto, but new highs could be some way off.

Simon Shares * US May inflation, 8.6%. Federal Reserve announced rates last night and surely it was 0.75% for the first time in 28 years? * Either we have continued high inflation or a recession, maybe even both? * Time for a Paul Volcker and do a 1% raise? * It's ugly, Nasdaq and S&P500 both closed at lows for 2022 and are both are now in a bear market. S&P500 draw down at close 13Jun22 * And failing a real test or liquidity and exchanges halt withdrawals.

Simon Shares * Sygnia (JSE code: SYG) results and a forward dividend of maybe as high as 10%. * Local GDP at 1.9% for Q1 2022. The economy has now recovered to its pre-pandemic levels. * Consumer cracking? I interviewed Evan Walker 36One Asset Management. * Inverse ETFs that go up as the market falls.

I hold ungeared positions. Upcoming events; [events_list limit="3"]

ddd

Are Robinhood's troubles Purple concerns? [caption id="attachment_34522" align="aligncenter" width="761"] Robinhood since listing vs. Purple Group[/caption]

| Robindhood | Purple Group | | --- | --- | | (Nasdaq code: HOOD) | Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE); | | Listed July 2021 at $38, hit $85 and now under $10 (-75%) | July 2021 145c, high since 350c and now 260c (+81%). | | Makes most of their revenue from selling the deal flow and Gold accounts. | Revenue is from transactions. | | The majority of transactions are in options or crypto. | The majority of transactions are in equity, but crypto, EC10, is growing. | | Needed a quick $billion to settle meme stock trades. | The balance sheet is fine. | | Huge repetitional damage when they halted trade in some meme stocks. | | Value traded by clients has been falling since Q1 2021. | Value traded by clients fell in the last set of results. | | Not yet profitable. | Profitable, PE ±50x. | | Users declined in 2022. | Users grew in last results to +1million active accounts. | | Market cap per user = $478 (ZAR7,400) | Market cap per user = ZAR3,263 | | Revenue per user (2021) = $80 (ZAR1,250) | Revenue per user = R109 |

Simon Shares * The good news is the US had a green week last week, for the first time in 8 weeks * Goldfields (JSE code: GFI) is down on news it paying a chunky 33.8% premium to acquire Canadian Yamana Gold in an all-share deal * We finally got the petrol price increase and the 150c fuel levy reduction remains in force, for now. * German inflation hits 7.9% for May. Highest since the 1950s. EU inflation for May 8.1%, the highest ever. * EU agrees on a partial ban on Russian oil imports * Monthly dividends in a JSE equity portfolio * Offshore ETFs paying monthly dividends

Demand destruction in commodities There comes a point at which a commodities price is simply too high and the price itself reduces demand. Depending on the commodity high prices often need to be high for protracted periods of time.

Simon Shares * Results are pouring in, food producers are struggling. * Coronation (JSE code: CML) results with DY of over 10% and PE ±9X. * Snap Inc (NYSE code: SNAP) profit warning. It now trades at half its listing price. * Current under recovery in petrol price is 236c, + the 150c fuel levy suspension means we could see a 386c increase in June to over R25 a litre! * What’s your fav ETF? We ask our readers, Rochelle is first up and likes an offshore ETF with a monthly dividend payment of almost 1%. * Hello Eskom, best budget power banks.

Slightly better than average is enough Investors and traders love big winners. That 10 bagger that happens in a matter of months or maybe a few years. But by consistently hunting for those big winners we're taking larger risks.

We're better off aiming for the modest winners.

Beating your benchmark by 2% a year sees you with almost 50% more after twenty years.

A recent Planet Money Podcast, Investing in mediocrity, talks about a fund manager who only ever aimed to be in the top third of all funds. After a decade of succeeding at that, they were the top fund over ten years.

Simon Shares * 10X Investments buying CoreShares. * MPC, 0.5% expected. * Balwin (JSE code: BWN) results vs. Calgro M3 (JSE code: CGR). * Pick n Pay (JSE code: PIK) results vs. Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP).

I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Shares * US April CPI 8.3%; Core CPI 6.2% (month-on-month core was +0.6%) * FOMC * Sibanye-Stillwater* (JSE code: SSW) update the market hated. * Kaap Agri (JSE code: KAL) results * Wandile Sihlobo on agri in SA. * New Satrix global healthcare ETF. * Thungela Resources (JSE code: TGA) could pay an R100 dividend this year, putting them on a +40% DY.

US Tech selloff continues

1-year FAANG returns

° Meta
° Apple
° Amazon
° Netflix
° Alphabet pic.twitter.com/VybsCoWDfh

— Simon Brown (@SimonPB) May 9, 2022

I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Shares * Combined Motor Holdings (JSE code: CMH) results, Best ever. * Renergen (JSE code: REN) cold commissioning of phase 1 going well. * New global healthcare ETF coming from Satrix. Currently in IPO and listing 26 May. * EU unveils a proposal to ban Russian oil imports within 6 months, all refined oil products by the end of the year. + OPEC+ Sees Production From Non-Opec Participants in OPEC+ at 18.2 mln Bpd in May, 600,000 Bpd Lower Than Last Forecast * Lyft (Nasdaq code: LYFT) shares fall 26% on disappointing forecast (earnings 75% below expectations) as they say they'll pay drivers more. * Intel says chip storage till 2024 at least.

Stagflation

"Stagflation is most commonly referred to as the simultaneous experience of three separate negative economic phenomena: rising inflation, rising unemployment, and the declining demand for goods and services."

The best defence is generally commodities.

I hold ungeared positions.

The world's oldest exchanges starting in India all the way through to Amsterdam.

Staring in Kimberly in 1881 through to the present Simon details the history of stock exchanges in South Africa.

Simon Shares * US inflation 8.5%, UK 7.0% * Capitec (JSE code: CPI) results and a special dividend. * Dave Segall asking about "Looming food and fertiliser shortages" and impact on local agriculture stocks. * Purple Group (JSE code: PPE) trading update (here are my previous expectations).

I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Shares * I have closed my Nasdaq long position. Still long FTSE100. * Purple Group (JSE code: PPE) trading update. Looks a little better than I expected. * MTN (JSE code: MTN) more Nigerian woes. * Reports that Woolies (JSE code: WHL) may be selling David Jones. * Elon Musk buys 9.2% of Twitter (NYSE code: TWTR). * Moodys upgrades sovereign and banks from negative to stable. * Deutsche Bank says: US recession in 2023 and stocks to fall 20% by summer 2023

I hold ungeared positions.

The Rouble is almost back at pre-war levels against the US$. 20% interest rates, capital controls, no foreign selling on the Moscow Exchange, selling oil & gas in Roubles (maybe), reports of paying interest on debt with Roubles and of course traders in for a buck.

Simon Shares * Just One Lap is 11 years old :) * FOMC, as expected. Local MPC tomorrow. * Nasdaq, time to buy? Also FTSE100. Both a technical buy, not taking a view on the fundamentals.

Brent almost back at US$120.

China opened up already, well Foxcon at least.
Tencent results, flat-lining.

The end of an era! So says Tencent as revenue grows in single digits, the lowest quarterly number since listing back in 2004. Tencent’s declaration is resignation that any expansion will be cautious and controlled. Prosus down 8.2%, Naspers down 8.4%. Prices still look vulnerable

— David Shapiro (@davidshapiro61) March 23, 2022

Thungela Resources (JSE code: TGA) results and 1800c dividend.
- "developments in terms of new thermal coal projects which have been hampered by financing opportunities, given ESG pressures on carbon fuels"
I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Shares * Big banks now all have released results, mostly good albeit off low base. * Covid cases in China surge, new lockdowns. + Hello, more supply chain mess. * People asking if I updated my view on Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE). Nope, volatility likely helping the revenue, but I need new data (results) first. * Commodities weak, brent oil now in a technical bear market.

China makes peace with tech Prosus (JSE code: PRX) and Naspers (JSE code: NPN) now flying (+20% n Wednesday). Discount still +50%. Reports of WeChat being hit with a massive fine for money laundering?money laundering

China's state council has in one move just:
Pledged to keep capital markets stable
Vowed to support overseas stock listings
Said dialogue with US re ADRs is 'good'
Promised to handle risks for property developers
Clarified regulation of Big Tech will end 'soon'
BOOM pic.twitter.com/xHYgcbchCo

— Sofia Horta e Costa (@SofiaHCBBG) March 16, 2022

I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Shares * Shoprite (JSE code: SHP) results, it's all about innovation. * Strong un International (JSE code: SUI) update. * War in Europe, commodities still the story. Very volatile, that's expected. But I expect more upside and I am happy to hold.

Upcoming events; * + 17 March ~ JSE Power Hour: Geopolitics, inflation and markets

Prosus (JSE code PRX) / Naspers (JSE code: NPN) / Tencent (Hong Kong code: 700) Tencent has been under pressure

Naspers and Prosus have been hit even harder

Live Prosus discount to net asset value (NAV) is now some 55% after hitting 60%.

VK (old mail.ru) has been written down to zero.

Generally unlisted is worth a lot less than stated?

Buy / Sell / Hold? * VIE structure * China has not taken sides in the war, so far * Tax on profits if they sell Tencent * More Chinese crackdowns? * Prosus has been wasting money from the sale of 2% stake in Tencent? * Buying back shares * Buying Delivery Hero (Frankfurt code: DHER)

I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Shares * City Lodge (JSE code: CLH) results, fair valuation around 800c? * BHP Group (JSE code: BHG) will see a significant reduction in its weighting in Top40 and Resi10 indices. * PSG (JSE code: PSG) exiting the JSE. * Wilson Bayly Holmes (JSE code: WBO) has lost investor confidence. * Murray & Roberts* (JSE code: MUR) results. HEPS at 29c a little light, but back in profit.

War in Europe Inflation is the biggest economic issue. Energy, PGMs and agriculture. Will central banks stick to their rate rising trend?

People want to buy the Russian ETF, why?

Even if peace happens today, sanctions will be in place for some time to come.

Buy Satrix Resi10 ETF* (JSE code: STXRES).

The Oil ETN (JSE code: SBOIL).

Local stocks impacted

Barloworld (JSE code: BAW) about 20% of revenue.
Mondi (JSE code: MND) about 12% of revenue.
I hold ungeared positions.

Upcoming events; * 07 March ~ JSE Power Hour: Geopolitics, inflation and markets

Wednesday was budget day and our tax experts, AJM Tax, hosted a live panel discussion covering the budget; highlights and low lights. We've included the recording for this week's episode. The panellists were;

Divan Botha – moderator
Dr Albertus Marais ~ Director at AJM Tax
Laila Razack ~ CFO of Equites Property Fund
Simon Brown ~ Founder Just One Lap and host MoneywebNOW

Simon Shares * Strong Nedbank (JSE code NED) trading update. * If you held Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH) when it all went wrong in 2017 you have until 15 May to submit a claim. * Oceana (JSE code: OCE), now the CEO quits?

I hold ungeared positions.

Upcoming events; * 22 April ~ Introducing the CoreShares Total World ETF * 06 March ~ JSE Power Hour: Finding income in JSE listings

What's down with Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE), owners of EasyEquities? After a high of 349c a month ago it's now 261c.

Firstly it's more sellers than buyers.

The hype of the pandemic trading is fading and easy returns are fading. So less trading, slower new accounts (albeit reports that they still have great new account rates).

Vacation is wild.

For the year ending August 2021

737k active accounts (up 45.7%).
Each account makes R69 profit.
- But as accounts age profits per account increase.

What can we expect to see for the year ending August 2022? (NOTE, the interim results to end February will be out early April). * 1million accounts? That's 263k new accounts and growth of 35%. * Profit per account R76 (10% growth, older account more profitable BUT less market volatility means less transactions). * = R76million profit (I ignore GT247 and Emperor Asset Management) * With 1.2billion shares in issue that's HEPS of 6.3c = forward PE of ±40x

That seems fair, but there are risks. * The assumptions above could be wrong * GT247 could lose money * New projects cost money * Dilution with new share issues * I am only using EasyEquities, ignoring other business units.

There are of course potential upside surprises as well * The assumptions above could be wrong * Growth is better * GT247 makes money and EasyProperties kicks in strongly

I sold 35% of my holding at 315c-345c on the way up, this was because it simply became too large within my portfolio (was the biggest holding after buying at 50c less than 2 years ago). But I am happy to continue holding.

Simon Shares * Great Sappi (JSE code: SAP) results. * Strong Hudaco (JSE code: HDC) results. * Top40 is trading at all-time highs, as is Resi10 and MidCap is almost there. * Kastle back to work barometer shows office attendance in the US is still not back to levels from before the most recent pandemic wave and around 33% (on average) of pre-pandemic levels. Back in November, the average was just over 38%. * IPO process explained. * Ashburton ETFs have moved over to FNB. * Meta Platforms (Nasdaq code: FB); Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp + Down 25% on the day of the results. Fell further and now off 43% from September 2021 highs and back at May 2020 levels. + Market cap below US$600billion, that happens to be the number House legislators picked as the threshold for a “covered platform” in a package of competition bills aimed at Big Tech. + Active users declined + $10billion lost revenue due to new iOS privacy rules + $10billion on metaverse. + Regulatory issues. - Meta threatens to shut down Facebook and Instagram in Europe over proposed regulations. The EU says, 'please do'. + All said this is just one quarter, the next few quarters will tell us the true story.

Upcoming events; * 17 February ~ JSE Power Hour: Tax-free investing

Simon Shares * PGMs are on the move, most notably palladium and rhodium. But the miners are not. * Combined Motor Holdings* (JSE code: CMH) strong trading update. * MTN (JSE code: MTN) vs. Vodacom (JSE code: VOD) updates. Who's winning? * Strong Astral (JSE code: ARL) update, but for the half ending March - so off low base. * Ascendis (JSE code: ASC) looking to sell three businesses, but that won't leave much behind. * OPEC+ agrees to a 400k barrel/day increase from March, this was the initial plan from last year. * The local CPI basket is changing. * Satrix is listing an India ETF, currently in IPO. * The local prime interest rate increased 0.25% last week. This adds R152 per R1million of a bond. Not a lot, but this is the second one already and we have many more coming. * The ARK Innovation ETF (NYSE code: ARKK) has had a tough year and at a point, in January, it was behind the Nasdaq over the life of the fund and it is trailing the Nasdaq over one and three years. That all said, they publish all their research and released their Big Ideas 2022 report which is well worth the read.

I hold ungeared positions. Upcoming events; * 9 February ~ Wealth Creation through Trading and Investing with ThinkMarkets
17 February ~ JSE Power Hour: Tax-free investing

Simon Shares

PGMs are on the move, most notably palladium and rhodium.
Oil also still moving, remember the ETN for that.
Cashbuild (JSE code: CSB) update shows the pandemic home improvement boom is over.
ArcelorMittal South Africa (JSE code: ACL) update sees them into profit and on a PE of under 2x.
Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH) settlement approved, but still lots of debt.

Markets are spooked * Lots to be spooked by; + FOMC, it's all happening in March + Asset purchases are also to end in March, but what of the US$9trillion of bonds the Fed holds? + Valuations are high. + Rates are rising. + Inflation is at decade highs. * Value winning over growth for the first time in an age.

Upcoming events; * 09 February ~ Wealth Creation through Trading and Investing with ThinkMarkets

Simon Shares * BHP Group* (JSE code: BHP) is unifying its dual-listed company (DLC) corporate structure effective close 28 January. This will count as a CGT event for shareholders who will have been deemed to have sold their shares and bought the new ones. * Microsoft (Nasdaq code: MSFT) is buying Activision-Blizzard for $69 billion, but who's the largest gaming company in the world? Tencent (Hong Kong code: 700). * German 10-year back above 0%.

[caption id="attachment_31941" align="aligncenter" width="888"] German 10-year yield[/caption]
Oil at 7-year highs. There's an ETN for that.
I hold ungeared positions.

Now for the tenth year in a row, we kick off the new year with a predictions show.

Marc Ashton, Keith McLachlan and Simon Brown put their heads on the block with three wild and woolly predictions for the markets for 2022 followed by a call on the Top40 and ZAR for the year ahead.

Importantly we start each show with a review of the previous year’s predictions and you’ll find the 2021 predictions show here.

Holiday show * Back in 2010 the world watched as Greece plunged further and further into a debt crisis with many expecting the EU to not survive. But Angela Merkel saved Greece and the day.

[caption id="attachment_31826" align="aligncenter" width="888"] Greek 10Y bond rates[/caption]

Greek debt to GDP (%)
source: tradingeconomics.com

On the 20th September 2021 Chinese property developer missed interest payments on some US$300billion of debt and this spooked markets into a selloff. But three months later nobody cares. What's the background sorry and why does nobody care?

After clogging up the Suez Canal for six days back in March 2021 and halting much of the worlds shipping trade, what happened to Ever Given?

Offshore

/ Strong year of returns globally, CAC40 (France) top index

/ US inflation, not transitory

/ US unemployment looking decent

/ China crackdown

/ Commodities mostly a soft year, the exception is oil

/ Supply chain chaos

Local

/ Good year for local markets

/ Delisitng galore

/ GDP

/ Rand

Simon has a look back at the winners and losers from the JSE for 2021, year-to-date returns. There certainly are some losers, but mostly it is about winners as the Top40 did 21.5% so far and the top major global index was the Cac40 which returned 29.9%.
Find the top ETFs here.

Offshore

/ US Labor Nov Nonfarm Payrolls +210K; Consensus +573K, unemployment improved to 4.2%. Fed's target for 'maximum employment' is for unemployment rate of 4.5%.

/ Didi leaving NYSE

/ Google will no longer require workers to return to the office on Jan. 10, delaying the return indefinitely.

/ Dorsey leaves Twitter

/ OPEC+ agrees to January production hikes

Local

/ Implats comes for RBPlats

/ Capital Appreciation results

/ Tharisa results

/ Bidcorp updates

/ Murray & Roberts update

Simon Shares * Bidcorp (JSE code: BID). Strong update, they're coming out of this pandemic much stronger. * Aspen (JSE code: APN) announces manufacturing deal with Johnson & Johnson (NYSE code: JNJ). * Implats (JSE code: IMP) wants RBPlats (JSE code: RBP), sorry Northam Platinum (JSE code NPH). * Powell, Fed chair, says inflation is not transitory. * Oil under severe pressure, OPEC+ meeting was pushed back to Wednesday. * New variant, I bought City Lodge (JSE code: CLH) and Sun International (JSE code: SUI) on Friday.

I did buy somme leisure on Friday, CLH at 400c and SUI at 2100c .. will see shortly if that was a good idea or not ..#JSE https://t.co/aHKZOIxLbu

— Simon Brown (@SimonPB) November 29, 2021

I hold ungeared positions.

Offshore

/ Powell second term as Fed chair

/ Fed's Bostic says he remains open to faster taper and one or two rate hikes in 2022

/ Online Black Friday sales in the US fell according to data from Adobe Analytics ($8.9bn vs. $9bn)

/ Opec+ meeting this week, production likely to remain unchanged

/ Turkish lira losses 20%

Local

/ New variant crashes markets and leisure stocks (everything)

/ Good Invicta results, but no dividend

/ Good PPC results

/ Brait apital raise via convertiable bond

/ Hospital stock results; Life Healthcare & Netcare

/ Banking stocks

Simon Shares * Coronation (JSE code: CML) grows assets, fees and dividends. * PPC (JSE code: PPC) results look good. * Purple Group (JSE code: PPE) price action looking weak. * PGMs fading again. * Hospital group stocks; Life Healthcare JSE code: LHC) and Netcare (JSE code: NTC) both had fair results as they get better at managing the pandemic. * Shoprite (JSE code: SHP) launched their banking account, under pinned by Grindrod Bank (JSE code: GND) who also stand to benefit from the MTBPS last week whereby the minister said they'd allow independent traffic on the Transnet rail network by end of 2022. * Turkish lira collapse. This is what happens when your central bank is not independent. * Two stocks that made a real difference to my portfolio over the last two decades, Capitec (JSE code: CPI) and Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP).

I hold ungeared positions.

Twenty years of food retailers on the #JSE pic.twitter.com/BDKeOPU11t

— Simon Brown (@SimonPB) November 23, 2021

Twenty years of local banks .. only really one bank in it as the other 4 battle along the bottom as Capitec does 46% CAGR over the two decades ..#JSE pic.twitter.com/yMx0NSDYrV

— Simon Brown (@SimonPB) November 24, 2021

Simon Shares * Iron ore below US$100. Kumba (JSE code: KIO) halved since July highs. + And still falling. + But Q3 sales were at US$180 / tonne and even at current lows likely they get US$150 / tonne for the second half. Mid-year cost per tonne was US$26 and sale price US$165 / tonne. So the share is pricing in horror stories which likely aren't true fr the full year ending December. BUT next year will be different and you don't try to catch falling knives, wait for a confirmed reversal. * Woolies (JSE code: WHL) trading update, really weak. * Shoprite (JSE code: SHP) trading update, really strong. * Strong PPC (JSE code: PPC) update. * Local inflation came in at 5%, the fourth month we're below US inflation and likely we'll see no change at MPC on Thursday.

I hold ungeared positions.

[caption id="attachment_31691" align="aligncenter" width="888"] Top40 daily[/caption]

Upcoming events; * 18 November ~ JSE Power Hour: Opportunities in local and global property * 25 November ~ The inflation threat, is it becoming structural? * 02 December ~ JSE Power Hour: Position your portfolio for 2022 * 09 December ~ Portfolio construction with Keith McLachlan

Offshore

/ US inflation, 6.2%. Core inflation highest since 1991.

/ Johnson & Johnson announced plans to split its company into two, separating its consumer health division from its pharmaceutical and healthcare businesses.

/ Elon Musk selling Tesla shares, some planned n September. Rest thanks to the Twitter poll.

/ Singles day in China, muted (+8.5%) but still huge, Alibaba $84.5billion

/ Tencent results. Slowing in all areas. Common prosperity is visible in the results.

Local

/ MTBPS, not much happening - as expected.

/ Vodacom buying Vodafone Egypt, nice deal and adds a strong growth region.

/ Purple Group results, really top class and much better than I expected. 737k funded accounts.

/ Sappi results, doing well as dissolving pulp prices boom. But energy costs hurting.

/ Raubex results strong with a really good pipeline and well positioned for infrastructure

/ Northam scopes Implats and buys 33% of RBPlats

Simon Shares * Iron ore below US$100. Kumba (JSE code: KIO) halved since July highs. * Tencent (Hong Kong code: 700) results. * Northam (JSE code: NPH) buys stake in RBPlats (JSE code: RBP). * Telkom (JSE code: TKG) results. * Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE) results.

[caption id="attachment_31661" align="aligncenter" width="888"] Purple Group daily chart[/caption]

I hold ungeared positions.

Offshore

/ US tapering begins

/ Strong US jobs data

/ US passes $1trillion infrastructure bill

/ Bank of England leaves rates unchanged

/ Strong Pfizer results

/ Elon Musk asks Twitter if he should sell 10% of his Tesla shares, and pay tax

Local

/ Mini budget this week

/ Renergen reserves

/ Dis-Chem results

/ MTN update

/ Purple Group update

/ Petrol increase

Simon Shares * Federal Reserve FOMC press conference Wednesday evening after a two-day meeting. * Avis (NYSE code: CAR) up 50x from March 2020 lows after results. * Pfizer (NYSE code: PFE) results. * Ascendis (JSE code: ASC) shareholder activists now control 30% of the votes. * Renergen* (JSE code: REN) announce a six-fold increase in helium reserves. + Still need to raise UAS$800m or R12.3billion to get phase 2 up and running.

[caption id="attachment_31627" align="aligncenter" width="888"] Renergen weekly chart[/caption] US$8.5billion from France, Germany, the UK and the US governments, as well as the EU, to support a just transition to a low carbon economy.
I hold ungeared positions.

Simon Shares * Tesla (NYSE code: TSLA) becomes the worlds 7th trillion-dollar company. * Excellent Santova (JSE code: SNV) results. My bad pandemic crash sale. * Decent Famous Brands (JSE code: SSW) results. * Implats (JsE code: IMP) wants to buy Royal Bafokeng Platinum (JSE code: RBP). * Sibanye-Stillwater (JSE code: SSW) buys two Brazilian mines for US$1billion and 19.99% investment in New Century Resources for US$46million.

I hold ungeared positions.

Upcoming events; * 04 November ~ JSE Power Hour: Bold predictions from SA's top broker * 11 November ~ Investment Valuation with Keith McLachlan

From the last week * Satrix launches All Share ETF * CoreShares dividend tax

Offshore

/ Evergrande has its suspension lifted and makes an interest payment

/ Oil remaining stubbornly high

/ Inflation fears, time for gold?

/ Paypal maybe buying Pinterest for US$45billion

/ Netflix results, still growing albeit north America very slowly

/ Facebook getting a new name as the future is the metaverse

Local

/ Local CPI 5% for September

/ Pick n Pay results

/ Excellent results from Combined Motor Holdings

/ Clicks results

/ New Satrix All Share ETF listing in November

/ Renergen launches a helium token

Simon Shares

South Africa inflation rose to 5% in September. Food inflation is 7%, electricity 14%, and fuel almost 20%, with a large petrol price increase expected in November. These increases are partially offset by clothing inflation at 1.6%, appliances -0.4%, and housing rentals around 1%

— kevin lings (@lingskevin) October 20, 2021

Wesizwe Platinum (JSE code: WEZ) went crazy after releasing a competent person report.
Calgro M3 (JSE code: CGR).
Balwin Properties (JSE code: BWN).
US lists its first Bitcoin ETF, ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (NYSE code: BITO). It doesn't hold actual Bitcoin, rather it uses futures to track gains. losses.
Everything Rally

My positions for the everything rally.

I hold ungeared positions.

Upcoming events; * 21 October ~ JSE Power Hour: Small cap investing with Anthony Clark * 27 October ~ FX and Commodity prices and their effects on investments * 04 November ~ JSE Power Hour: Bold predictions from SA's top broker * 11 November ~ Investment Valuation with Keith McLachlan

Offshore

/ September, the CPI increased 5.4% after advancing 5.3% on a year-on-year basis in August.

/ China Q3 GDP at 4.9%

/ Biden announced that the Port of Los Angeles would start operating around the clock, following the Port of Long Beach's lead, to ease congestion

/ $2.7 Trillion in Crisis Savings Stay Hoarded by Wary Consumers

/ Microsoft shuts down LinkedIN in China

/ MTNs IHS Towers lists in NY, MTN stake worth R22bn

Local

/ Government cracking down on imported cement, but not with tariffs.

/ IMF bumps local GDP to 5% for 2021

/ Murray & Roberts expands in the US

/ Long4Life results and offer on the table

/ Tharisa gets their Chrome plant cold commissioned

/ Alaris & CSG both have delisting offers.

Simon Shares * Murray & Roberts* (JSE code: MUR) expands in the US. * The government says they'll only use locally produced cement in projects. PPC (JSE code: PPC) and Sephaku (JSE code: SEP both fly higher. But is the market right about this? * We're off the UK red list, good for local hotels? * Aveng (JSE code: AEG) have announced plans for a 1:500 share consolidation in December. This usually sees prices weakness after the consolidation.

I hold ungeared positions.

Upcoming events; * 14 October ~ Investment Fundamentals with Keith McLachlan * 21 October ~ JSE Power Hour: Small cap investing with Anthony Clark * 27 October ~ FX and Commodity prices and their effects on investments

Offshore

/ US jobs disappoints, but unemployment 4.8%.

/ 15% global tax rate approved.

/ Oil continues to run higher

/ Reports that Malaysia is getting back on track with chip packaging sees PGMs run hard as it could be good news for vehicle production

/ Last Tuesday was tenth commemoration of the death of Steve Jobs. A legend and the iPhone one of the best products ever?

/ All facebook properties down on Monday for 6 hours.

Local

/ EOH update shows it’ll make an operating profit

/ Invicta buys Dartcom, moving into communications and renewable energy

/ Zeder results, still waiting on value unlock

/ Sanlam Investment Holdings buying Absa investment businesses.

/ Home loans worth +R56.6 billion were granted in Q2 2021, +40% compared to the same period in 2019.

Simon Shares * Facebook (Nasdaq code: FB), Instagram and WhatsApp all down on Monday. * Evergrande is suspended. * Last week it was a fat finger Purple Group (JSE code: PPE) taking the stock down to 125c. This week it hits 225c. * Murray and Robert (JSE code; MUR) starting to move higher. * Brent oil is now around $82. * PGMs remains under pressure. * EOH (JSE code: EOH) makes an operational profit, but the debt pile remains.

I hold ungeared positions.

Upcoming events; * 14 October ~ Investment Fundamentals with Keith McLachlan * 21 October ~ JSE Power Hour: Small cap investing with Anthony Clark

Offshore

/ China & Europe power shortages

/ Brent oil trading around $80

/ Merck Covid-19 pill, expected to produce 1.7 million courses for the U.S. government for $1.2B

/ Tesla delivered record 241,300 vehicles in the third quarter

/ Work-from-home forever: PwC offers US employees full-time remote work

Local

/ Level 1 & SA expected to be removed UK red list, will tourists return?

/ Capitec results

/ Bidcorp results

/ PPC debt restructuring

/ Purple Group tie up with Discovery Bank

Simon Shares * FOMC and MPC both keep rates unchanged, No surprise. * Evergrande is not a threat to the global financial system. * Fat finger on Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE).

I hold ungeared positions.

Upcoming events; * 30 September ~ Power Hour - JSE traded ETNs on Tesla, Apple, clean energy and more * 14 October ~ Investment Fundamentals with Keith McLachlan

Offshore

/ FOMC leaves rates unchanged and no tapering just yet.

/ Evergrande a worry but not a global threat

/ China bans crypto, again.

/ Britain has a shortage of lorry drivers, and so a petrol shortage.

/ Nike cut its 2022 revenue outlook because of the temporary bottlenecks plaguing supply chains.

Local

/ MPC no change

/ Telkom to spin out towers (Swiftnet) worth about R13billion. Openserve will happen afterwards.

/ PGM prices remain under pressure as vehicle production the world over in under pressure due to chip shortages.

/ Spur results

/ Exxaro has announced the development of a 70 MW solar project as part of the groups “overall renewable energy strategy”.

/ Grindrod sells remaining stake in Grindrod Shipping for R370million

Simon Shares * Clicks (JSE code: CLS) revised trading update, previous EPS growth was 8%-13%. Now revised to 0%-3%. * Afrocentric (JSE code: ACT). Great little stock. * Not a bad update from Famous Brands* (JSE code: FBR) * US inflation for August was 5.3%. * US poverty levels went down in 2020, during the pandemic. * AB Inbev (JSE code: ANH) just keeps on falling, why? * PGMs getting crushed. Platinum down at US$934, palladium around US$2,000 and rhodium US$13,300. What's happening? When does it reverse?

I hold ungeared positions.

Offshore

/ PayPal announced plans to buy Japanese "Buy Now, Pay Later" BNPL company Paidy Inc. for $2.7B

/ US judge rule against Apple and in Epic Games favour in antitrust lawsuit; judge says Apple's conduct in enforcing anti-steering restrictions is anticompetitive

/ China Evergrande Group default risk ($300bn)

/ U.S. Senate Democrats float stock buyback tax as part of $3.5 trillion bill

/ The World’s Shippers Are Earning The Most Money Since 2008

Local

/ Local Q2 GDP, we’re 1.4% below pre-pandemic levels

/ SARB governor Lesetja Kganyago suggests we work towards a 3% inflation target, with a 2-4% tolerance range

/ FSCA fines Viceroy R50m

/ Result; Shoprite

/ Results; Momentum

/ Results; Bidvest

Simon Shares * Shoprite (JSE code: SHP) results. Christo Wiese gets R342m in dividends. 21million consumers using their Xtra Savings and 1.5million downloads of the Sixty60 app. * The market did not much like the Murray & Roberts (JSE code: MUR) results. * Old Mutual updates 2021 GDP forecast to 5.5%. This is after Stats SA released GDP for Q2 QonQ at 1.2% (YonY 19.3%) and better than expected. The economy remains 1.4% below pre-covid levels. * FSCA fines Viceroy R50million. They won't pay. * SARB governor Kganyago Lesetja suggests we work towards a 3% inflation target, with a 2-4% tolerance range. * New infrastructure ETF from Satrix.

I hold ungeared positions.

Upcoming events; * 30 September ~ Power Hour - JSE traded ETNs on Tesla, Apple, clean energy and more * 14 October ~ Investment Fundamentals with Keith McLachlan

Offshore

/ US jobs data slows. Likely means tapering not just yet even as ECB starts talking tapering.

/ New China restriction, kids gaming limited to one hour a day on Friday, weekend days and public holidays

/ Pfizer has recognized over $10 billion in profits from the COVID-19 vaccine alone, making it the best drug introduction in history.

/ After hurricane Ida oil recovery begins with ports and refineries restarting but most production in the Gulf of Mexico is still shut.

/ Chip shortage holds back German car sales in August

Local

/ SA trade surplus at R37bn July vs R55bn June. YTD R290bn.

/ Mediclinic plans to go green in R2.2bn renewable energy deal

/ Results; Murray & Roberts

/ Results; Discovery

/ Results; Implats

/ Results; Aspen

Simon Shares * Jackson Hole * Bonang Mohale and his Serialong trust converts a Purple Group (JSE code: PPE) loan into 11.46% shares in the group * ADvTECH (JSE code: ADH) * Stadio (JSE code: SDO) * Cashbuild (JSE code: CSB) * Sun International (JSE code: SUI) * MAS Real Estate (JSE code: MSP) * Motus (JSE code: MTH) * Woolies* (JSE code: WHL)

Is this Woolworths’ attempt at Athleisure ?

Yikes! 😬

Crop Top : R249.99
Leggings : R299.99

I am flattered they think I,their customer, is a 20 year old Instagram Fitness star 🤣🤣 pic.twitter.com/B4xsTJ36ho

— Moms 💖 investing (@mommy_moneyza) September 1, 2021

I hold ungeared positions.

Upcoming events; * 02 September ~ JSE Power Hour: Picking the next winning stock * 14 October ~ Investment Fundamentals with Keith McLachlan

Offshore

/ Jackson Hole. Powell says nothing new.

/ TSMC, the world's largest maker of semiconductor chips, says it's raising its prices by about 20%

/ Hurricane Ida heading for the Gulf of Mexico, shutting down oil production.

/ China reportedly weighs ban on U.S. IPOs from domestic tech companies with sensitive data

Local

/ Bonang Mohale and his Serialong trust converts a Purple Group loan into 11.46% shares in the group

/ Unemployment 34.4%

/ South African GDP rebased. The economy is 11% larger than previously measured. It is still the second-largest economy in Africa, after Nigeria.

/ National treasury says KZN July violence will take 0.7%-0.9% off 2021 GDP.

/ Sibanye Stillwater results

/ Woolies results

Simon Shares * Jackson Hole * South African GDP rebased. The economy is 11% larger than previously measured. It is still the second-largest economy in Africa, after Nigeria. * South Africa unemployment 34.4%. * National treasury says KZN July violence will take 0.7%-0.9% off 2021 GDP. * New oil & copper ETNs

Upcoming events; * 02 September ~ JSE Power Hour: Picking the next winning stock * 14 October ~ Investment Fundamentals with Keith McLachlan

Offshore

/ New Zealand going into lockdown, the world is getting vaccinated but the pandemic is far from over.

/ Pfizer expected to get full FDA approval for its covid vaccine this week. A whole new business (covid jabs & mRNA possibilities).

/ Tesla wants to build an AI robot

/ Jackson Hole this week

/ China securities regulator signals willingness to work with the US on audits

Local

/ South Africa inflation lower at 4.6% in July 2021.

/ Sasol results

/ Shoprite / Massmart deal

/ ARB Holdings results

/ Metair results

Simon Shares * JSE is broken. * 100 MW gazetted. * Renergen (JSE code: REN) update. * South Africa inflation lower at 4.6% in July 2021. * Tencent (Hong Kong code: 700) results. * Resource stocks ex-div. But still lots of pain. Super BHP Group (JSE code: BHP) results. * New Clean energy and water ETNs listed.

I hold ungeared positions.

Upcoming events; * 19 August ~ JSE Power Hour: BEE shares and the JSE * 02 September ~ JSE Power Hour: Picking the next winning stock * 14 October ~ Investment Fundamentals with Keith McLachlan

Offshore

/ US inflation comes in as expected

/ Britain's GDP grew by 4.8% in the second quarter of this year, leaving the economy just 2.2% below its pre-pandemic level

/ Google employees who work from home could lose money

/ US infrastructure bill moving forward

/ India to unveil US$1.35trillion infrastructure bill

Local

/ 100mw power generation laws gazetted

/ Naspers / Prosus swap is unconditional

/ Strong Merafe results

/ MTN results and Sanlam tie up

/ Nedbank results

/ Exxaro and Thungela results

Offshore

/ US GDP 6.5% , below expectations but the economy now larger than pre-pandemic

/ US moving forward with an infrastructure bill

/ The U.S. debt ceiling officially became operative again on Sunday after a two-year suspension

/ Amazon results see stock down 7%

/ Alphabet results & $50bn buyback

/ Microsoft results, LinkedIn does +$10bn

Local

/ Tencent woes hit JSE (but all-time closing high on Thursday)

/ Results; Anglo Platinum, Kumba Iron Ore and Anglo American

/ Liberty2Degrees results

/ ArcelorMittal South Africa results

/ Treasury considering access to retirement savings

Simon Shares * Wild week for Naspers (JSE code: NPN), Prosus (JSE code: PRX) as Tencent (Hong Kong code: 700) got slapped down by the Chinese government. * We're back at level 3, adjusted. Alcohol sales are allowed and Distell (JSE code: DGH) put out another great trading update. No doubt better if no alcohol bans, but the argument that your industry is under threat wears thin after such an update. * President Ramaphosa also announced the return of the pandemic grant to the unemployed at R350 a month until March 2022. This pays to some 9.5million South African and means just over R3billion a month into the economy. + How do we pay for it? Dividend tax on these super dividends. * Apple $21.7billion in profits, almost doubling the previous year. * Alphabet nearly tripled its profits to $18.5billion as advertising revenue grew 69%. * Microsoft profits hit $19.1B, up 42% from the previous year. * The market capitalization of Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Alphabet, and Microsoft is now over 30% of the entire S&P 500 index and over 40% for the Nasdaq100. * Tigerbrands (JSE code: TBS) are recalling 20million tins. * Two new ETFs coming to market. Global healthcare from Sygnia and a diverse and inclusive ETF from Satrix.

Upcoming events; * 19 August ~ JSE Power Hour: BEE shares and the JSE

Forget super cycle, hello super dividends * Anglo Platinum (JSE code: AMS) paid an R175.00 total dividend. * Kumba Iron Ore (JSE code: KIO) paid a 7270c.

In both cases, this amounted to a dividend yield (DY) of around 10% at the interim stage.

No share buybacks as Anglo American (JSE code: AGL) own a significant majority of the shares and likely want the dividend back at home.

The question is will other miners be as generous or will they do some share buybacks as well?

If commodity prices stay where they are, we'll see the same again in six months and into 2022?

If prices remain the same to the end of 2022 (big if?) we'll get a 40% return from just dividends?

This is what super profits look like.

Offshore

/ New closing highs for S&P500 & Nasdaq. But Russel2000 is lagging.

/ Apple delays back to the office to October

/ Twitter and Snap - good results

/ China regulator bars Tencent from exclusive rights in online music

/ Big results due this week; Apple & Amazon. So far reported results have been very strong.

Local

/ Rioting impact, retail about 8% of store space impacted. REITs bigger concern.

/ Local inflation drops

/ Anglo Americana and BHP production updates

/ City lodge sells East African assets

/ Cashbuild update

/ Distell update

Simon Shares * We now have updates from listed retailers as to the damage caused by last weeks rioting. Chantal Marx ran the data and says we saw almost 1,700 stores looted or closed due to the rioting and this is about 8% of the retailers' local footprint and some 5% of global footprint. This is a significant number, but considering many are open for trade again, with many opening last weekend already. The impact on earnings is likely to be very modest, if at all. * PwC expects last weeks riots to take about 0.4% off local GDP for 2021. They already had a low expectation of under 3%, but that drop of 0.4% does illustrate how listed retailers may be okay, the real pain is in the unlisted and especially the small one-off store. * Local CPI dropped a little in June to 4.9% (5.2% in May). * The population of South Africa was estimated to be 60.14million at mid-year 2021, an increase of about 604,281 (1.01%) since mid-year 2020. * Stellar production updates from Anglo American (JSE code: AGL) and BHP* (JSE code: BHP). They are both firing on all cylinders, even if there have been some issues (iron ore rail line for example). But they're largely debt-free, no massive projects or M&A activity and Greg Katzenellenbogen says the worlds top miners will make almost US$120billion profit this year, double from last year. So massive dividends? * Sygnia did not steal your dividend.

I hold ungeared positions.

Upcoming events; * 22 July ~ JSE Power Hour: Power of savings * 19 August ~ JSE Power Hour: BEE shares and the JSE

Risk is good

I got an email from a listener asking about risk free investments on the JSE. Thing is, there is no risk free on the JSE - and that's a good thing.

Without risk there would be no reward.

When I am looking for investments, I always look for the good things about the business. Margins, growth, product and the like.

But I also dig into the risks, competition, input inflation and the like.

The thing is, I like to see risk, I just want risk that I think the company can manage and ultimately maybe even turn into a benefit. For example, new product is absolutely a risk. But what if they disrupt themselves and create a new product that hits sales of their existing product, but creates an entire new category.

Apple did this with the iPhone, killing off the iPod.

When researching into long-term 'til death do us part' investments

I create a short list of the three main features I like in a stock. But I also create a list of the three main risks and I keep a close eye on both lists.

Offshore

/ US inflation, again above expectations

/ Delta airline results show travel returning

/ US bank earnings as previsions put back into the income statement

/ Netflix looking into gaming

/ QoQ China's GDP increased 1.3% in Q2, 7.9% YoY

Local

/ Rioting impacts as listed companies report details

/ South African Special Risks Insurance Association (Sasria) will cover claims

/ Standard Bank taking out Liberty Holdings

/ Very strong Richemont update

/ Tongaat results

/ Steinhoff increases settlement offer

Simon Shares * I'm recording Wednesday afternoon and the violence of the past week seems to be abating, certainly in Gauteng. It has been a horror week for our country and most importantly; look after yourself if you can somebody else as well and above all else, be kind. * US CPI YoY 5.4%. Core YoY 4.5%. Both ahead of expectations. * A very strong production update from Pan African (JSE code: PAN) and their 15ha blueberry farm. * OPEC+ seems to have reached a compromise between Saudi Arabia and UAE that should see an OPEC+ deal possible. * US earnings season has kicked off and is expected to be the best ever - and it needs to be with S&P500 and Nasdaq100 at all-time highs. * Gold US$1,825. * Lost in all the rioting is another two weeks of level 4 adjusted lockdown, albeit restaurants can seat customers.

Upcoming events; * 22 July ~ JSE Power Hour: Power of savings

We're starting to see SENS announcements about the impact of the rioting. The worst-hit so far seems to be Cashbuild (JSE code: CSB), they have 36 stores directly impacted by rioting and looting and a further 33 stores closed as a precautionary measure.
Ethekwini Region, according to its mayor, Mxolisi Kaunda. R1billion loss of stock has been affected & R15billion rand of damage to property and equipment.
Fuel refinery Sapref declares force majeure and shuts the plant.
Large parts of N3 remain closed and Durban harbour has thirteen ships waiting for entry (according to VesselFinder.com). To my memory of living in KZN and counting the ships waiting whenever I could, that's about as many as I've ever seen.
These will resolve as the rioting quietens down, and evidence is that it peaked on Monday. Longer-term the impact is hard to tell. Certainly, thousands of small businesses are gone and with them jobs. The Rand has fallen to 14.66 after hitting 14.76 early on Wednesday after it was trading at 14.20 on Friday. The JSE is actually up some 3% so far for the week.

Riot insurance So the answer here is fairly simple, South Africa has an SOE that covers riot insurance - South African Special Risks Insurance Association (Sasria).

They repeatedly have clean audits (financials are here).

Assets under management is a little over R8billion.

But they have reinsurance.

Pretty much any property insurance you have will include a line item for Sasria and it is very cheap.

For corporates, it is a larger cost every month and the question is are corporates 10% insured or have they done some self insuring.

Offshore

/ US ten year back at 1.36% after peaking at +1.72% in March

/ Jeff Bezos has stepped down as Amazon CEO

/ OPEC+ couldn’t reach an agreement

/ Fed minutes tell us nothing new, except inflation is higher/faster than they expected

/ US extends the economic blacklist of Chinese companies

/ China wants pre-IPO review of all new listings that have large user data

Local

/ Imperial delisting offer at 6600c

/ Sibanye Stillwater bearish on palladium, bullish on platinum & rhodium

/ MultiChoice hit with R63billion tax bill in Nigeria

/ Nedbank WFH policy, 60% in office ie: 2 days WFH each week

/ Prosus shareholders approve share swap

Markets are as quiet as the street of Jozi, so this week a list of my favourite podcasts, the focus is offshore. I'll return and look at local in a few weeks.

Upcoming events; * 13 July ~ How to use ThinkMarkets Tools * 22 July ~ JSE Power Hour: Power of savings

Favourite podcasts;

Planet Money
Motley Fool Money
Disciplined Investor
Odd Lots
Freakonomics Radio
Michael Covel’s Trend Following Radio

Offshore

/ US The unemployment rate edged up to 5.9% in June

/ US home prices rose by 14.6% in April, the largest gain in 30 year

/ S&P 500 closes green 7 days in a row, record is 8 days (US markets closed Monday)

/ RobinHood proposed listing ~ $40bn valuation

/ Didi Chuxing lists on NYSE, market cap $69bn & Chinese regulator blocks new accounts

Local

/ Modest Q2 for JSE, TOP0 -1.2% (+11% YTD), Fini15 +6.8% in Q2

/ SARB turned 100 last Wednesday

/ May saw another +R50billion trade surplus tax receipts

/ Invicta results

/ AdaptIT shareholders vote for 700c Volaris delisting offer

/ Etion results. The story is they selling LAWTrust business for R245million when the market cap of the entire company is R22million. CEO says plans to return value and delist

Simon Shares * Level 4 lockdown. Remember the podcast of last week when I delved into the various leisure socks. * Argent (JSE code: ART) results. Long a stock not worth covering or owning, but they've changed things up the last few years. * Invicta (JSE code: IVT) another successful turnaround and really good results. * JSE (JSE code: JSE) trading update, no surprise earnings under pressure. * Nike (NYSE code: NKE) results absolutely crushed it last week. Revenue +96%. * Anchor Capital published a note showing that the US had increased the number of US$ in circulation (M3) has gone up 33% over the course of the pandemic. * Absa’s Q2 2021 manufacturing survey shows very positive manufacturer confidence. * EOH (JSE code: EOH) new board suing founder Asher Bohbot for R1.6billion. * A US judge kicks out the Federal Trade Commission's (FTC) antitrust case against Facebook. It was requesting that Facebook sell their Whatsapp and Instagram businesses. They can bring the case back again, but the bigger issue is antitrust cases against big tech in the US and EU. * SAB Zenzele Kabili (JSE code: SZK) has been coming down, now around R120. Still, double far value. * Thungela Resources (JSE code: TGA) trading at almost 4000c. Coal may be dirty and coal may be dead in time. But so far it's been a great investment, but this is probably fair value. * South African Reserve Bank (SARB) turned 100 years old on Wednesday 30 June. * Euro Zone inflation slipped to 1.9% for June. * Popia is live from today.

SA recorded another trade surplus in May of R54.6billion. This is the 3rd month in a row that the surplus has been above R50billion.

Watch ~ Rand, stronger for longer

Offshore

/ Gold a flat week after the previous weeks sell-off

/ S&P500 and Nasdaq back at all-time highs after the previous week's aggressive sell-off

/ Global shipping remains under severe pressure as Chinese port shut after a covid-19 outbreak

/ US gets an infrastructure bill, but maybe not. It’s messy

Local

/ Omnia results paid special dividend and SARS dispute

/ Growthpoint trading update

/ Old Mutual to spin off third of their Nedbank holding

/ May CPI 5.2% with core inflation at 3.1%

/ +50s can register for vaccines from Thursday

/ Absa’s Q2 2021 Manufacturing Survey shows rising manufacturer confidence

Simon Shares * The announcement by the president that business will be able to build up to 100 megawatts of power without constraints is huge. Aside from the fact that the current limit is 1 megawatt, it will have three direct impacts; + Estimates are that at least 4,000 megawatts can be built in 18-24 months. That is level 4 load shedding. So bye-bye load shedding. + Tens of billions in spend aiding the construction and allied industries. + Savings when using your own power. Goldfields (JSE Code: GFI) is building a 40 megawatt supply for South Deep that they estimate will save them R120million a year. * Annual consumer price inflation hit a 30-month high in May, rising to 5.2% from 4.4% in April. Core inflation 3.1% and at the bottom end of the range. * Renergen* (JSE code: REN) has spooked the market as they announce a capital raise "raising the proceeds for the completion of the Phase 2 studies of the Virginia Gas Project". Details by the end of the week, but this isn't a massive surprise. Startup miners always need more cash, even for studies never mind the actual building of the facilities.

I hold ungeared positions.

Upcoming events; * 24 June ~ JSE Power Hour: Rand ~ stronger for longer

Deep dive hospitality stocks The third wave of the pandemic in South Africa is so are very much a Gauteng issue as it records higher daily new cases above the peaks from the first and second waves.

This is no surprise to anybody. But what was notable is that lockdown restrictions remain very relaxed (albeit rumours that we'll see tougher restrictions soon). I had expected a harder lockdown for the third wave.

Expecting a harder lockdown I was very cautious on local hospitality stocks.

The Yoco small business turnover index shows activity at 78% of the levels pre-lockdown after hitting 128% at the end of May 2021. So even without harder lockdowns, we are being more cautious but this is still well ahead of the 40% odd we saw during the end of the second waves lockdown.

We also have some Stats SA data on occupancy in tourist accommodation. Here we're back at around 30% for the end of April and that's back where we were before the second wave arrived.

Hotels in South Africa recorded an occupancy rate of 26,8% in April 2021, up from 23,2% in March and 17,9% in February.

Read more here: https://t.co/Pzft0bs8oi#StatsSA pic.twitter.com/rcjbJcUHdV

— Stats SA (@StatsSA) June 21, 2021

Airports Company SA (ACSA) data shows domestic travel picking up to around 60% of pre-pandemic levels. International is at around 15%-20% and regional around 25%-30%.

So in short this new wave is still early days and is hurting, but so far not as bad as I had feared (occupancy data is a month out of date). Certainly ahead of the third wave we were seeing improved tourist activity even if still below the pre-pandemic levels.

So what stocks to look at? I am not rushing in, but they're on a watch list for when we're past this third (and hopefully final) wave.

Spur (JSE code: SUR). Sit down dining hurts under lockdown and restaurants are the real spreader risk. But as we pass through this third wave and assuming no significant fourth wave (vaccines rates should be moving higher by then) Spur looks good.
Famous Brands* (JSE code: FBR) I like their takeaway as it's more resilient than sit down. But they still have debt issues that will take another two years to fix. So speculative.
City Lodge (JSE code: CLH). Their break-even occupancy is around 35% which is a little below the Stats SA data, but that was for tourist data, City Lodge has mostly been business travel. So they need more improvements to start a profit. They also have the sale of East African assets, which if it happens will be a boost. Of course, if that is cancelled, that'll be bad news.
Tsogo Sun Gaming (JSE code: TSG) has been running and here consumer spare cash and the third wave are a threat to that run so I'd stay away for now.
Tsogo Sun Hotels (JSE code: TGO) has also been running and again I'm not convinced the market is totally right on this one.
Sun International (JSE code: SUI) ran hard but then has come under pressure and looks interesting on more weakness.

Offshore

/ Markets spooked by FOMC statement

/ Gold under pressure

/ Brent crude slips but holding above $70

/ TikTok owner ByteDance reports $2.1bn loss

/ Krispy Kreme returning to market with IPO

/ Adobe results

Local

/ Rand under pressure

/ Capitec expects half-year earnings to rise 292%

/ Sephaku update and PPC results

/ Mediclinic to produce own power

/ Alexander Forbes results, retrenchments almost back to ‘normal’ levels

/ Stricter lockdown

Simon Shares * SAB Zenzele Kabili trading at R180, at least 3x fair value? * Local GDP for the first quarter was 1.1% QoQ. Kinda middling. * Stor-Age* (JSE code: SSS) results. * Thungela Resources (JSE code: TGA) lists. * AdaptIT (JSE code: ADI) gets an improved offer from Volaris - 700c. * Life Healthcare (JSE code: LHC) bouncing again because of the Alzheimer drug. But it a very long road. * Sirius Real Estate (JSE code: SRE) results were excellent.

I hold ungeared positions.

Upcoming events; * 24 June ~ JSE Power Hour: Rand ~ stronger for longer

Options, futures and CFDs Options (warrants on the JSE) * Complicated * Risk is only 100%. * Right to buy or sell. * Not much offered in SA. * Long or short, depending on if call or put. * Can trade on Safex, but institutional size trades only.

Futures * Exchange-traded * Equity, indices, commodities, currencies & agriculture. * Long or short. * Interest charge and dividends built into the price. * Require a Safex broker. * You can lose more than you started with.

Contract for Difference (CFDs) * Over the counter (OTC) traded. * Counterparty risk. * Issued on anything. * Long or short. * Interest paid/earned daily. * No expiry. * You can lose more than you started with.

Offshore

/ U.S. economy added 559K jobs in May and unemployment fell to 5.8%

/ G7 nations set the minimum global corporate tax rate at 15%

/ AMC issues shares above the current share price

/ Biden expands blacklist to 59 Chinese companies

/ Apple staff back to work 3 days a week, starting September

Local

/ Volaris ups offer to AdaptIT to 700c

/ Sibayne Stillwater to buy back 5% of shares

/ SARB selling their stake in African Bank

/ Famous Brands results

/ Prosus to buy Stack Overflow of US$1.8billion

/ Mark Barnes sells up to half his Purple Group shares

Simon Shares * Sibanye Stillwater (JSE code: SSW) announced they'll buy back 5% of their shares. * Shoprite (JSE code: SHP) exits Nigeria. * AdaptIT (JSE code: ADI) gets an upgraded offer from Huge (JSE code: HUG) but still likes the 650c cash from Volaris, even as that is below the independent board's fair value of 700c - 909c. * Barloworld (JSE code: BAW) completes R1billion sale of motor retail unit and will also, in time, sell its Avis car rental and leasing business. * Brent oil is above US$70 for the first time since early 2019. OPEC+ says it will maintain its policy of gradually increasing supply. * A very strong trading update from Standard Bank (JSE code: SBK). Banks locally have risks, but look cheap, I have a position in the Satrix Fini ETF JSE code: STXFIN). I hold ungeared positions.

[caption id="attachment_29849" align="aligncenter" width="888"] Fini15 ~ weekly[/caption]

A new ETF to rule them all
Manage your money like a rock star

Upcoming events; * 24 June ~ JSE Power Hour: Why the Rand will be stronger for longer

Simon Shares * Somebody buying Metrofile (JSE code: MFL). Started late on Tuesday, sending it almost 13% on the day and holding Wednesday. * Mediclinic (JSE code: MEI) paid £432m for 29.9% of Spire Healthcare (LSE code: SPI) in 2015. They're now supporting a buyout from a third party valuing that stake at £287.8m. * Healthcare stocks earnings remain under pressure as elective surgery remains limited. * Afrimat (JSE code: AFT) to acquire R650m manganese mining rights. * Gold above US$1,900 and even with Rand strength (currently 13.85) we're finally seeing gold in ZAR moving a little higher. * No change to the repo rate at last weeks MPC meeting. All the excitement was that the next move will be up, but we knew that. Of more interest is that the govoner talks bout 4.5% rather than the 3%-6% range. He always has but it seems MPC will based rate decisions on that 4.5%.

I hold ungeared positions.

Upcoming events; * 27 May ~ JSE Power Hour: Manage your money like a rock star! * 01 June ~ ThinkMarkets: Key points to investing * 24 June ~ JSE Power Hour: Rand ~ stronger for longer

Sygnia iTrix 4th Industrial Revolution ETF
Cache This: Smartphones on a budget ~ Nafisa Akabor

SAB Zenzele Kabili Listing on the BEE board of the JSE on 28 May.

No IPO process ahead of that.

R40 listing price.

But trades subject to supply / demand.

I would expect it to boom initially then settle around R40.

No lock-in period, so you can buy / sell as you wish.

This is very much a long-term investment.

Will be ownership of global AB Inbev (JSE code: ANH) shares worth R5.4billion.

AB Inbev market cap is around R1.8trillion. So a small slice of the entire group of less than 1%.

Important, you are not just getting SAB, it is the entire global group.

There is debt included, geared about 55% at 70% of prime payable over ten years.

Another reason to view it as long-term.
75% of dividends will be used to settle the debt.

This is a long-term investment option and NOT a get rich quick scheme.

We have also seen some BEE schemes fail spectacularly.

Not all stockbrokers are enabling trading in the shares. SAB have a trading desk, call them on 0861 900 903.

Only BEE qualifying investors can buy the shares.

Simon Shares * Santova (JSE code: SNV) were very solid and they are now truly a global logistics business. * Distell (JSE code: DGH) announced that Heineken wants a 'majority' stake in the company. Details are scant with major shareholders being PIC and Remgro (JSE code: REM) both just over 31%. But does the majority mean they want the cider business or +50% of the shares which would trigger a mandatory offer to minorities? This of course after Heineken threatened to take their beer and go home last year during the alcohol ban.

hmmm, wasn't it just last year Heineken was hating on us so much they was canceling projects and threatening to take their beer and go home ..

— Simon Brown (@SimonPB) May 18, 2021

Balwin (JSE code: BWN) & Calgro M3 (JSE code: CGR) results both showed a tough year. But I like this space. Calgro offering its units at the R500k price point (R4,000 monthly bond costs) while Balwin starts at a little under R1million to around R2million. So different markets.
Redefine (JSE code: RDF) results saw loan-to-value (LTV) improving but what struck me is that they value properties twice a year. Most doing it over a rolling three years.
Local CPI hit a 14-month high in April, mainly driven by rising transport and food prices. The rate was 4.4%, up from 3.2% in March.
Thursday is the MPC rate decision, no change expected.
Eurozone April CPI +0.6% on Month, +1.6% on Year. Core CPI +0.5% on Month; +0.7% on Year
Crypto crashing, entire crypto market cap is off 20% today on news China is cracking down (again).
I hold ungeared positions.

Upcoming events; * 27 May ~ JSE Power Hour: Manage your money like a rock star!

jjjjj

What's with the 'special' shares? Special shares usually with high voting rights and often with limited or zero economic rights.

They enable insiders to retain voting control even while they may not actually control the company.

The most well known are the Naspers~N (JSE code: NPN) A shares that give control to a few parties.

Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) has the same for Christo Wiese which he tried to sell back to the company. But they have zero economic rights and only are votable by Wiese

More recently it surprised many that while Remgro (JSE code: REM) owns a little over 31% of Distell (JSE code: DGH) they ave a pile of B shares that gives them 56% voting control.

In the older days, companies used pyramid structures, but those have long since largely left the JSE and no new ones can be listed.

The challenge is how to know about them? The annual report will detail them.

Generally, they don't matter massively, until they do. And then they matter. Wiese failed to receive the required number of votes to get back onto the Shoprite board in 2018, but then he used his special shares to basically override shareholders.

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JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Offshore

/ US inflation

/ Disney results

/ US pipeline shut down due to ransomware attack

/ UK rejects (softly) Bidens plan for global corporate tax rate

/ Chinese industrial production and retail sales due Monday

Local

/ Naspers / Prosus share swap

/ Raubex results

/ Ascendis swaps debt for assets

/ Clicks buys Pick n Pay pharamacy business

/ Cape Town airport has best month since lockdown, still 40% down from 2019

/ Long4Life results and NAV discount

Simon Shares * Raubex (JSE code: RBX) results saw the second half record HEPS of some 110c after a loss in the first half. The previous full-year, 2020, HEPS was only 161.7c, so the business is looking good. That said, lots of debt and the expanding order book needs to be converted into profit. * Transaction Capital (JSE code: TCP) results see the dividend returning. * A super-strong trading update from Lewis (JSE code: LEW) with HEPS more than doubling. At the time of their interim results, they paid a dividend of 133c when the stock was around 2400c. If they can do a 250c dividend (should be easy?) the forward dividend yield sits at around 8%. * US inflation data spooked higher than expected, even considering the April base effect. April Consumer Prices +4.2% and Core CPI +3%, highest since 2009. Used cars (stimulus cheques?) were +10% and made up a third of the core CPI increase. Fed will do nothing. * Ascendis (JSE code: ASC) has announced they've reached a deal with debt holders. Basically, they're swapping the crown jewels (Remedica) for their large debt pile. The debt cost was R280million for the last six month period ending December and this will improve solvency and keep Ascendis alive. But are the remaining assets attractive enough for investors?

Upcoming events; * 27 May ~ JSE Power Hour: Manage your money like a rockstar

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More Naspers shuffles

Naspers (JSE code: NPN) and Prosus (JSE code: PRX) have announced another deal to try and close the discount between themselves and their holding in Tencent (Hong Kong code: 700).

Prosus will acquire up to 45.4% of Naspers shares via a share swap whereby holders of Naspers can get 2.27 new Prosus shares for every one Naspers share.

This will increase Prosus liquidity (in theory) and markedly reduce Naspers weighting in the Top40 and Swix indices. The latter argument makes sense and is likely a part of the reason for the discount that Naspers experiences. The problem is that with the weighting above 20% most funds are not allowed to hold over a certain percentage (lower than the Naspers weighting), so they can not go overweight, or even match index weight, for Naspers and this reduces potential buyers of the stock.

Will it work? Maybe.

They have tried many other tricks, unbundling Prosus and earlier MultiChoice (JSE code: MCG) and that hasn't worked. But the weighing in the indices is a real problem.

Of course, the very easy fix here is to simple unbundle the Tencent holding - but that's not going to happen any time (aside from some sales every three years as we saw recently).

JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Offshore

/ US jobless claims below 500k, lowest since pandemic started. But overall employment slips to 6.1%, up from 6% in March.

/ Janet Yellen says rates will need to rise

/ ECB Official Calls for Accepting Inflation Overshoot

/ Saudi Aramco Q1 profits +30%

/ Gold +$1,800

Local

/ Moodys skips reviewing SA credit rating

/ MTN update

/ Sibanye Stillwater update

/ Kaap Agri results

/ Karooooo results

/ Anglo American gets coal demerger shareholder approval

Simon Shares * Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE) now has 1million clients across all platform. A wowzer number.

What an incredible milestone achieved today. Across all platforms & partners we've reached 1 million registrations. @CapitecBankSA @SATRIX_SA @BidvestBankSA @EasyEquities hard to describe how grateful I am to all you #invstr legends that challenge us to rise each day. 🙏🙏🙏

— Charles H Savage (@CharlesHSavage) May 5, 2021

Combined Motor Holdings (JSE code: CMH) full year results. Second half saw decent cash flow, back to profit and dividends.
Metrofile* (JSE code: MFL) are cancelling 4.18628% of their treasury shares.
MTN (JSE code: MTN) first-quarter update, good numbers with group EBITDA +21.3%. Forward PE of around 11x is decent as it's being priced as a utility, albeit was even better back at 6000c when forward PE was c8x.
Revego (JSE code: RVG) cancelled the listing.
Tax Tuesday: Tax obligations for global citizens
I hold ungeared positions.

Upcoming events; * 06 March ~ JSE Power Hour: Finding income in JSE listings

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PGMs Flying, miners not so much Palladium above US$3,000 (all-time high)

[caption id="attachment_26363" align="aligncenter" width="888"] Palladium weekly chart[/caption]

Platinum above US$1,200 (six-year high)

[caption id="attachment_26365" align="aligncenter" width="888"] Platinum weekly chart[/caption]

Rhodium above US$29,000 (all-time high)

PGMs are considered a 'green' metal in that they help reduce CO2 emissions.

Demand remains above supply.

But production will increase.
Scrap is increasing (especially with iron ore at records)
Rand is strengthening and will likely continue to do so

But the listed miners are languishing nowhere, why?

=====

JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Offshore

/ April a green month for US indices

/ Palladium almost $3k and copper almost $10k

/ Knock out results; Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet & Amazon

/ US Q1 GDP +6.4%

/ Biden 100 days

Local

/ Resi10 the main local index green in April (midCap & Property did well)

/ Gilbertson quits Gemfields

/ Tongaat update, just misses debt reduction targets

/ Steinhoff to list Pepco in Warsaw

/ Astral update

/ AdaptIT needs another week to decide on the two offers

Simon Shares * Revego* (JSE code: RVG) was supposed to list today but has delayed their listing. I applied for allocation as I like the business model of renewable energy with guaranteed inflation-linked off-take agreements. They invest into operational renewable asset and are targeting a 8%-10% dividend yield, based off the 1000c listing price.

I hold ungeared positions.
Total world ETF from CoreShares
Cache This: Gadget insurance

Upcoming events; * 06 March ~ JSE Power Hour: Finding income in JSE listings

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JSE protections With the Revego listing delayed the money I put into the book build last Thursday has not been seen since. The company was supposed to issue a SENS on Monday and list on Thursday, but we heard nothing until Thursday morning. It has been delayed by a few days.

What struck me was that I was not worried about the chunk of money that I had put into the book build and which I have not see or heard from in a week now. The reason for my lack of concern is the protections the JSE exchange offers.

Extra regulation around the companies act.
Stockbroker regulations.
Investor fund.
FSP insurance.

This of course does not stop crookery from executive teams nor does it stop businesses from going bust.

JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares * South African inflation was 3.2% in March 2021. * Pick n Pay (JSE code: PIK) results show it was all liquor and tobacco that was the pain as it was off 31%. * Karooooo (JSE code: KRO) has returned after exiting as Cartrack. The market seemed confused as it opened at 6500c, it is now trading R480. Still well off the adjusted highs f over R900 as everybody got all excited about the Nasdaq listing. * Long4Life (JSE code: L4L) hints at possible unbundling as it looks to unlock shareholder value. I'm confused, they were just consolidating by buying up businesses? I held them but sold early in the pandemic as they were so small in my portfolio and weren't doing much with their cash. * Absa (JSE code: ABG) loses their CEO. * Cell C reports R5.5billion full-year loss. Horror story and I never understood what Blue Label (JSE code: BLU) saw in the business. * PSG results without Capitec* (JSE code: CPI) and they're buying back their preference shares.

I hold ungeared positions.

Upcoming events; * 22 April ~ Introducing the CoreShares Total World ETF * 06 March ~ JSE Power Hour: Finding income in JSE listings

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JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Offshore

/ Coinbase lists

/ China Q1 GDP 18.3%

/ Reports Jack Ma will divest from Ant Group

/ Gold looking strong, but miners lagging (Rand strength?)

/ Just more than half of U.S. adults have gotten at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose ~ CDC

Local

/ Rand strength

/ Karoooo lists on Wednesday

/ Capitec results

/ EOH looking better

/ Sasol goes green

/ Local CPI later this week

Simon Shares * New Global ESG ETF from Sygnia. * Anglo American (JSE code: AGL) to list their coal assets, Thungela Resources. * Comair has finally been delisting from the JSE and shareholders will receive 4.26c per share.

I hold ungeared positions.

Upcoming events; * 15 April ~ Everything ETFs and tax-free investing

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Capitec and Purple Group (EasyEquities) results Two stocks that I own; Purple Group (JSE code: PPE) and Capitec (JSE code: CPI). Both with really good results and I'll go into the numbers in detail.

Capitec monthly chart since listing

Purple Group monthly chart since listing

JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Offshore

/ New highs for S&P500 & Nasdaq

/ Yellen wants global minimum corporate tax rate

/ Semi conducter chip shortage continues to hurt production

/ China slaps Alibaba with $2.8 billion fine in anti-monopoly probe

/ Goolge pushes back on WFT, wants staff back in the office from September

Local

/ Prosus sells another 2% of Tencent

/ Purple results

/ IMF says local GDP 3.1% in 2021 and 2% in 2022

/ Anglo exits SA coal by setting up a new JSE-listed miner

/ 650c Cash offer for AdaptIT

/ Pick n Pay update

Simon Shares * Prosus (JSE code: PRX) selling another 2% of Tencent. * Purple* (JSE code PPE) trading update for six months ending February. HEPS of about 0.85c. They did 1.54c HEPS for full-year ending August after a loss in the first half last year. So this period showing slower growth.

Growthpoint (JSE code: GRT) announced that their healthcare fund tops R3.2bn with Cintocare Hospital acquisition.
The JSE is investigating PPC (JSE code: PPC) trades amid insider trading suspicions as the share moved ahead of the announcement last week.
The IMF now says SA’s economy will grow faster at 3.1% in 2021 and 2% in 2022, but it will take over two years to recover from the 7% collapse we saw last year.
Janet Yellen wants all countries to have a minimum corporate tax rate.
I hold ungeared positions.

Upcoming events; * 15 April ~ Everything ETFs and tax-free investing

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Selling to early This is a problem for both traders and investors.

Part of the problem is the thrill of a winner, we've made money and we want to lock in that profit so the thrill doesn't go away, and we sell - but we sell way early.

The bigger issue is what are you trying to achieve?

As always know your strategy and know why you entered a position.
Be real about taking profits, that is why we're in the market.
But balance that with giving winners space to win even more.

Analysis of previous winners you exited early. Why did you do exit and what could you have done to stay in longer? What about some you exited at the right profit point?

JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares * PPC (JSE code: PPC) have made a deal with their DRC lenders. They potentially owed US$175million but now are only on the hook for US$16.5million. This stock was 60c in November and is now around 240c. * Renergen (JSE code: REN) says helium concentration is +3%. But reference the US has the current best concentration level at 0.35%. * Sabvest (JSE code: SBP) results show a discount to net asset value (NAV) of some 50%. Add to this PSG (JSE code: PSG), Remgro (JSE code: REM), Naspers (JSE code; NPN) and Prosus (JSE code: PRX) discounts all in the order of 40% or more. The market is clearly hating on holding companies? Back in the day, a 30% discount was a lot, 15% about the average, and at times PSG has been at a premium to NAV. * Ever Given is free, but shipping rates remain elevated as they were before Ever Given got stuck. * MPC no change to rates, but changes to Q1 GDP and the vote. * Goldman analysts say go long on Russia, South Africa stocks. * Bank of America Securities conference on investing in SA had record offshore attendance with Clicks (JSE code: CLS) and Shoprite (JSE code: SHP) topping the list of interest.

I hold ungeared positions.

Upcoming events; * 15 April ~ Everything ETFs and tax-free investing

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JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Offshore

/ S&P500 closes at all-time high, Nasdaq still 6% off highs

/ US Personal Spending fell 1.0% in February, slightly more than expected, but January spending was revised upward by a full percentage point to 3.4%.

/ Ever Given remains stuck in Suez Canal

/ Intel to build new silicon chip fab plants for $20bn

/ Tencent results

/ WeWork to go public, via a Spac, with $9bn valuation

Local

/ CPI 2.9% for Feb and MPC no change

/ Magda Wierzycka quits as Sygnia CEO

/ AdvTech results

/ Old Mutual results

/ Remgro results overshadowed by 40% discount to NAV

/ Goldman analysts say go long on Russia, South Africa stocks

Simon Shares * AdvTech* (JSE code: ADH) solid results in a tough market. * Vivo Energy (JSE code: VVO) issued an update on Moroccan industry review and seems it's back to square one. * Resilient (JSE code: RES) results not the horror show expected. * Aveng (JSE code: AEG) wants to do another rights issue, again at 1.5c and raise R100m. * Tencent solid results. * Ever Given gets stuck in the Suez Canal. * February local CPI at 2.9%.

I hold ungeared positions.

Upcoming events; * 15 April ~ Everything ETFs and tax-free investing

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Why all the panic? A small rise in US ten-year treasury yields and a little inflation and suddenly it is the end fo the world for markets.

Inflation is likely to move higher in the US as the stimulus money gets spent. This is different from the stimulus after 2008/9, which went to banks who hoarded it and stuck it into markets. This time money goes directly to consumers who'll send the money.

But the Federal Reserve is happy that structural inflation is not returning and a little inflation in the system isn't the end of the world.

But to listen to many experts here comes hyperinflation and the end of the world as high inflation = high rates and as such money moves into income funds rather than equity.

Further if one digs into Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) government spending is not the end of the world, certainly for the US government. Here's a fun one, to deal with inflation, raise taxes? In fact have an automatic process that removes congress, if inflation heads above say 3%, taxes go up 4%. Above 5% taxes increase 8% and so on.

But back to the panic, stop. Markets never go in a straight line and suddenly getting all bearish because of some selling is going to make sleeping ever again impossible.

JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares * Shoprite (JSE code: SHP) delivered really strong results for the six months ending December. Shoprite daily chart[/caption]Purple (JSE code: PPE) is up some 20% in the last ten days. A buyer has arrived and thanks to low liquidity they're moving the price.

Good update from AdVTech* (JSE code: ADH) and results fro Stadio (JSE code: SDO) while Curro (JSE code: COH) was modest. Seems tertiary education was the winner and schools are under pressure but longer-term a sector I like.
Astral (JSE code: ARL) update.
TSA travel numbers are hitting their highest levels since lockdown started. Still only about half what they were before lockdown but the US is vaccinating and opening up. This while Europe looks to be starting the third wave and locally nobody will give/sell us any vaccines. So globally this re-opening is going to be very lumpy with the US and UK seemingly winners in the vaccine front (ironic after they were losers on the pandemic front).
Sun International (JSE code: SUI) nothing to write home about. Lots of chatter about the re-opening trade with City Lodge (JSE code: CLH) up about a third in March. But with at least one more (and maybe even two more) Covid-19 surges and resultant lockdown restrictions I am staying cautious for now.
The March 16-17 FOMC statement comes out between my recording and you listening. No rate change so it's all about the language. Even in the face of a strong economy are they still prepared to do whatever it takes and leave rates low into 2023?
I hold ungeared positions.

Upcoming events; * 15 April ~ Everything ETFs and tax-free investing

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Small caps for the win MidCap index is up about 10% so far in 2021, nice and pretty much exactly what thee Top40 has done. Of course, the Resi10 has done almost 20%, but the winner, small caps up some 20%.

The property index has returned single digits in 2021 so far, but technically it is looking ready to break higher.
We also now have all the large bank results and they were okay. The index is up some 5% and looking tired. There is value here but not sure there is any need to rush.

Property index, daily chart[/caption]

JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Offshore

/ $1.9trillion stimulus bill signed by Biden and on route

/ Tencent on notice as China cracks down on fintech players

/ The tech-heavy Nasdaq has underperformed the Dow for four straight weeks — a first since 2016

/ Friday 1,357,111 people were screened at U.S. airports, marking the highest number of travellers since the pandemic began.

/ U.S. 10 Year Treasury hits 1.625

/ Huawei listed anew as a threat to US national security

Local

/ GDP for 2020 -7%

/ SA records first annual surplus in 2020 (last was 2002)

/ Woolies sells Elizabeth Street Property

/ MTN results (dividend cancelled) and Ambition 2025

/ AfroCentric results

/ Aspen results see more debt slashed

Simon Shares * Ascendis (JSE code: ASC) lenders are flexing their muscle. Back in February L1 Health, Blantyre bought enough debt to be able to block any asset sales and with over R7billion in debt Ascendis desperately needs to sell their European crown jewels. There is now a forbearance agreement in place until the end of April by when the company needs to have sorted out their debt. A rights issue is not an option at current prices so a debt for asset swap with the lenders? This will maybe resolve the debt issue, but then what does that leave Ascendis? * Renergen* (JSE code: REN) find a bunch more gas they did not expect to find.

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Growthpoint (JSE code: GRT) office vacancies at 18%. Lots of concern about malls as we're over traded and online shopping. The latter is a very long-term issue, the former will see some die. But office is the real concern.
Solid AfroCentric (JSE code: ACT) results. Everybody (well many) love Discovery (JSE code: DSY) yet here is a pure health stock with great potential, cheap valuation and they consider NHI to actually be something that would further benefit the company.
Very good Metrofile (JSE code: MFL) results. Debt is going faster than expected, business is solid and the anon bidder has exited the building leaving only the one stuck in Australia. They should be able to easily do 30c HEPS for the full year putting then on a forward PE of under 10x. This set of results they only paid out half of HEPS as a dividend, but this should increase from next financial year as debt becomes way smaller.
MTN (JSE code: MTN) finally pricing as a utility.
I hold ungeared positions.

JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Offshore

/ NFP added 379k jobs (large beat) and US unemployment 6.2% (at this pace it’ll take until April 2023 to get back to where we were in February 2020)

/ $1.9trillion stimulus bill approved by Senate

/ China sets 6% 2021 GDP target

/ Germany charges Steinhoff execs

/ UK taxes going up to highest in 50 years

/ Nasdaq is red year-to-date

Local

/ One year of Covid, ZAR 40c weaker, Top40 +20% (both from Jan20 levels)

/ Harmony out of Top40 and Resi10, replaced by Glencore

/ Rhodes Food update “..sales started recovering in January and February 2021…” after TigerBrands said January was poor?

/ Firstrand results

/ Spur results

/ Treasury expected to be another R30billion ahead on tax collections

Simon Shares * A great research report on Blue Gem covering Renergen (JSE code: REN). What I really like about the report is that Keith shows you all his workings so you can make your own call on his working and decide. * Spur (JSE code: SUR) were a horror show, no surprise it was the six months to end December with all the various lockdown levels. Two things struck me. They're positioning themselves well for the post-pandemic dining life, dark kitchens, exploring drive-through were feasible. But the biggie was how the company has changed in the last decade or so. It used to be Spur with a little pizza and sushi. But it really is now a collection of brands across different eating experiences and price points. My concern in the short term is a third and fourth wave. We can see as lockdown and alcohol bans get stricter their traffic decreases markedly and I am pretty sure that the rest of 2021 will see at least another two waves of the pandemic with the resulting harder lockdowns. * Two awesome points from Nerina Visser in an interview I did with her yesterday on MoneywebNOW. Firstly she comments about the saving of dividend tax within a tax-free account. I have run the numbers and over a very long-term that saving is actually more than what one saves on capital gains tax. Secondly, what if you don't have the R36k lump sum to invest? Well, do you have some discretionary ETFs? If yes, sell them, move them into your tax-free account and then continue buying the ETF outside of the tax-free every month for the rest of the year. You get the tax-free benefit from day one.

Upcoming events; * Weekly, Wednesday at 5.30pm ~ Follow the Trader * 04 March ~ Things I wish I knew: the beginner trader

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It's a bull market [caption id="attachment_24772" align="aligncenter" width="888"] Top40 weekly chart[/caption]

I was chatting with some friends from around the world about markets. I say it's a bull market, especially locally. They all had a dozen different, and solid, reasons why I was wrong. But they miss one very important point - price.

The simple truth is that markets the world over are at all-time highs and heading higher. We can kick and scream all we want, but price is the truth and the price is heading higher.

Deciding that it is all crazy and heading to cash, or worse taking short positions is a fool's game.

Sure one day the market will peak and somebody will have that Tweet where they called it. But that's not because they're super smart, but because if you call something often enough eventually you'll be right.

Bull markets never feel 100% comfortable, that's the nature of the best. There is always a reason to be sceptical, that's the nature of the beast. But stop stressing and enjoy the ride, that's what bulls are for.

JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Offshore

/ US Durable Goods Orders Surge In January To Pre-COVID Highs

/ FB to pay Australian media

/ Latest Warren Buffet letter

/ Warren Buffett's $10 billion mistake: Precision Castparts

/ House passes $1.9 trillion Covid relief bill, sends it to Senate

/ Opec+ meets on Thursday

Local

/ Budget

/ Sasol results (no rights issue)

/ TymeBank gets R1.6bn

/ Goldfields gets go-ahead to build 40MW solar plant at South Deep Mine

/ Implats results and dividend

/ Woolies results

Budget 2021 with AJM Tax I was again invited to moderate the AJM Tax post-budget panel with three excellent guests;

Pieter Janse van Rensburg – AJM Tax
Daniel Silke - Political Futures Consulting
Adriaan Giessing – Seed Investments

You can download the AJM Rax budget highlight booklet here.

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Upcoming events; * Weekly, Wednesday at 5.30pm ~ Follow the Trader * 04 March ~ Things I wish I knew: the beginner trader

JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Offshore

/ Australia fight with Google and Facebook

/ Uber loses appeal in UK, drivers are workers not independent contractors

/ Former Bank of England Governor Carney joins board of digital payments company Stripe

/ US return to Paris Agreement

/ US jobless claims up to four-week high

/ Gold under pressure as it trades at lowest levels since June

Local

/ Sibanye Stillwater results

/ Truworths results

/ BHP results and monster dividend

/ Rand at 14.50

/ Two interesting update titbits; Tigerbrands worried about January sales and Dis-Chem sees connivance malls much better than malls, but malls returning to normal.

/ Value Group delisting

Simon Shares Interesting titbit from TigerBrands (JSE code: TBS) update "It is too early to conclude whether the lower consumer demand levels evident in the month of January reflect an even more challenging environment than what was experienced over the past year."

Upcoming events; * Weekly, Wednesday at 5.30pm ~ Follow the Trader * 18 February ~ Everything ETFs and tax-free investing * 04 March ~ Things I wish I knew: the beginner trader

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BHP* (JSE code: BHP) results were good, the cash flow was excellent with the dividend up 55% and payout ratio 85%.
This is the benefit of commodity prices at higher levels but also due to low debt levels an almost zero capex requirements from most commodity miners.

This raises three questions;

Are we in a commodity supercycle? I think not, sure prices are at best levels in about five years. But that's off a low base rather than a super cycle. sure demand has picked up and global infrastructure spend is rising in response to the pandemic. But we don't have China growing at almost 10% a year sucking in almost all of the world's commodities as we did back in the early 2000s.

Last time we ha a commodity supercycle it died the day after a global bank did a 100-page report on how it would last another decade.

Will commodity prices go higher? They can but mostly I think they won't. Platinum could hit US$2,000 but for the rest our best bet is they stay around current levels. Oil, who knows. Will the frackers return in mass with higher prices? Demand will certainly continue to increase as we get out of the pandemic, but how long can Opec+ keep their collective foot on the production brake pedal? I think not long as they'll need the money.

How long will it last? The elevated prices can probably last 3-5 years at best and this will see cash flows at high levels, especially as debt gets paid own. But the miners need to find new mines to mine or they run out of product to sell (as we're seeing with Pan African Resources* (JSE code: PAN) and their new mines / operations. So at some point, we'll start seeing green and brownfield capex projects coming back and that'll need some cash so dividends will start to drop.

My big fear is mega deals. These always destroy value albeit the miners look at them as an easy way to increased supply for themselves. If a stock I hold gets an offer, I'll take the money and run. If a stock I own makes an offer, I'll take the money and run.

I hold ungeared positions.

JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Offshore

/ Disney results all about Disney+

/ Tesla puts $1.5billion into Bitcoin

/ Janet Yellen warns of ‘explosion of risk’ from cryptocurrency markets

/ Bumble IPO with 60% gain on the first day

/ Platinum above $1,200 for first tine in six years

/ Freeze Sends Gas Soaring to $600

Local

/ More small-cap updates surprise to upside; Trellidor & Metrofile

/ Itatile results

/ ARB Holdings results, solid cash generation

/ Rand turned sixty yesterday

/ Cartrack coming back to earth after hitting 9000c

/ Steinhoff maybe resolving their legal woes

/ SARS collections ahead by R100billion

Simon Shares * Bitcoin* hits US$48,000 as Tesla declares they put US$1.5billion into the crypto. * Platinum finally on the move and above US$1,200 for the first time since 2015.

[caption id="attachment_24687" align="aligncenter" width="888"] Platinum weekly chart[/caption]

Sibanye Stillwater* (JSE code: SSW) best illustrates the boom in mining profits. In 2019 they made R62million now 2020 they expect almost R30billion and over 1000c HEPS. Could we see a 500c dividend?
Metrofile* (JSE code: MFL) very solid update and the stock has recovered from their 2019 wobble. There is still two potential buyers, one stuck in Australia, truthfully, I would rather they remain potential and I will hold the stock.
I hold ungeared positions.

Upcoming events; * Weekly on Wednesday ~ Follow the Trader * 18 February ~ Everything ETFs and tax-free investing * 04 March ~ Things I wish I knew: the beginner trader

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Should I sell the bounce? Depends why you bought the stock.

A long-term investment? No, then you keep it and focus on fundamentals rather than price.
A quick trade to make a few bucks. Then absolutely sell the bounce, you won't get the top price (well maybe you'll get lucky) and as we saw with Telkom (JSE code: TKG) the bounce just keeps on bouncing. So watch and wait and sell on weakness after the bounce That may be immediate or may take a few days or a week.

Waiting for the weakness is a skill you'll learn, slowly over time.

JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Offshore

/ Nasdaq & S&P500 close Friday at all-time highs

/ Alphabet & Amazon results

/ US unemployment drops to 6.%

/ Jeff Bezos to step up to the executive chair, no longer CEO

/ Chinese short video company Kuaishou rose nearly 200% at the open on its debut in Hong Kong.

Local

/ Ford investment of R15.8-billion into SA

/ Updates; Distell & Motus

/ Level 3 lite

/ Sibanye Stillwater update, R62million profit to almost R30billion

/ Load shedding

Simon Shares * GameStop closed at US$90 on Tuesday. * Jeff Bezos to step down as Amazon CEO. * Apple knockout results. * Ford to spend R15.8billion on local plant upgrade.

Upcoming events; * Weekly (Wednesday at 5.30pm) ~ Follow the Trader * 18 February ~ Everything ETFs and tax-free investing

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Booming SA Inc. consumers? We're seeing decent updates from local retailers so far this year, which is odd. Now let's be clear, decent not knock it out the park.

Distell (JSE code: DGH) lost 41 days of sales in the second half of 2020 yet expects HEPS to be + 8.6% - +13.6%.
Motus (JSE code: MTH) expect HEPS to be 0% - 5% higher, sent the stock up some 20% in two days.

A few possible reasons;

Lockdown so we have money to spend
Working from home saving on transport
Social grants increased

36One calculate some R100bn extra from social grants but also people taking money out of pension schemes & retrenchment packages. The risk here is that this is temporary, which is certainly the 36One fear.

JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Offshore

/ GameStop

/ Results; Apple & Tesla

/ Tencent listing Kuaishou (TikTok competitor) this week

/ US 4th quarter GDP at 4%

/ Davos online

Local

/ IMF downgrades SA GDP 2021/2 growth forecast

/ Huge offers script to buyout AdaptIT

/ Anglo stable of updates (AGL, AMS & KIO)

/ Clicks update and closing Musica

/ Solid Sasol update

/ Johnson & Johnson vaccine, Aspen to produce 300m a year

Upcoming events; * 18 February ~ JSE Power Hour: ETFs and tax-free investing

GameStop perfect craziness Three things came together to push this stock up +20x in a week;

Massive short position
Option buying
Markets love stories

Simon dissects the three explains how it all played out and why it is perfectly legal.

[caption id="attachment_24640" align="aligncenter" width="678"] GameStop daily chart[/caption]

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JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Offshore

/ Netflix results

/ Weak IBM results

/ Tesla results this week

/ US GDP (4th quarter)

/ Federal Reserve rate statement on Thursday

/ Procter & Gamble solid results & increasing buy backs by $2billion to $18billion

Local

/ Chris Griffith Kumba ==> Anglo Plat ==> now Goldfields

/ BAW selling motor division for R947m

/ MPC no surprise but vote was 3-2, with 2 for a hike.

/ Redefine to pass on 2020 dividend

/ Strong Richemont update

Simon Shares * Trading updates from Truworths (JSE code: TRU) and Foschini (JSE code: TFG) both saw sales decrease for the period ending both saw sales down. But not down as much as expected and hence the stocks went wild. Truworths was up some 25% in two days. More than anything this is because expectations were dire. That said I'm not convinced, the lockdown was increased post the period end and as mentioned, sales and HEPS are expected to be down. We'll get more retail updates and over the following two weeks, with Pick n Pay the exception - they don't issues sales trading updates. * On Pick n Pay (JSE code: PIK), they announced that after eight-years CEO Richard Brasher will be stepping down after a solid turn around in the company. * Local CPI came in at 3.1% for December leaving 2020 at 3.3%, the lowest since 2004 (1.4%) and 1969 (3.0%). The MPC will announce he repo rate Thursday, no change expected and with growth under pressure (load shedding, new lockdowns and late vaccine) I don't any increases in 2021

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It's all lies All of it. Politicians, corporates, marketers. The whole lot. So we need to be extra cautious whenever we hear anything an ask the questions. Ask why they say that? Ask the likelihood of it being provable and how the lie benefits them? Ask what's missing, and why is it missing?

Let's be clear, Trump has emboldened liars like nobody before him. But this is not new. Politicians lie all the time, most promising things that they're unable or worse, unwilling, to actually deliver on. But we've entered a new level whereby when lies are challenged they are deflected not with truth but more lies or the truth is called 'fake news'.

For investors, we also have a bunch of lying happening.

My favourite trick is that before I read a set of results I head to the previous one or two sets and maybe even an annual report and read their forward-looking statement and review of the period. This quickly gives you a sense of which CEOs are honest and which are just fluffing it until their next bonus.

Accounts are themselves not directly lies, but they're also not 100% truth. There are assumptions made at many turns in a set of results.

Some like Steinhoff we now know were all lies and I avoided that because of the complexity and that's an important point.
Tongaat was a hard one to spot, but the red flag (in hindsight but useful for the future) is when the company gets to 'value' assets.
African Bank we could spot because earnings were increasing but dividends were not. So no cash was being made from the higher earnings.

Common amongst all three? Very strong CEO who ruled with an iron fist.

JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Offshore

/ Biden starts Wednesday, already has $1.9trillion stimulus plan

/ Japanese market at 3-decade highs

/ Chinese GDP +2.3% for 2020

/ Rhodium above $20k

/ US won’t ban investing into Alibaba, Tencent and Baidu

/ JPMorgan results knock it out of the park

Local

/ Brasher exits Pick n Pay

/ Murray & Roberts OZ contract

/ Truworths trading update

/ J&J vaccine details expected this week, good news for Aspen

/ Load shedding returns

/ MPC on Thursday

2021 predictions show Every year Marc Ashton, Keith McLachlan and Simon Brown do a predictions show. Three wild and woolly predictions for the markets followed by a call on the Top40 and ZAR for the year ahead.

Importantly we start each show with a review of the previous year's predictions and you’ll find the 2020 predictions show here.

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The 2021 predictions are (listen for reasoning);

Marc Ashton

Not more than 10% of SA population (6million) vaccinated during 2021
Gold close 2021 +$2k
Ford & GM out preform Tesla
Top40 ~ green
ZAR ~ stronger

Keith McLachlan

Resi10 in $ will beat Nasdaq
US ten year real yield (less inflation) will be negative
Eastern Cape house price inflation will beat Gauteng
Top40 ~ green
ZAR ~ stronger

Simon Brown

Russel 2000 beats S&P500
Resi10 beats Fini15 & Indi25
No US or ZA rate increases this year
Top40 ~ green
ZAR ~ stronger

JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Offshore

/ Tech wild year

/ Oil goes negative

/ Gold breaks $2,000

/ Brexit

/ Tesla

Local

/ Sasol

/ Top40 green for the year & just off all-time highs

/ Even the Rand recovered most of the losses and trades better than 5 years ago

/ Budget deficit

/ Lots of business rescue, but less than I expected

Simon Shares * Trellidor* (JSE code: TRL), I've been buying. We've seen DIY stocks doing well and small SA Inc shares surprise to the upside and I think this could be one of them. Interim is end December so an update should arrive mid-February. * Sygnia (JSE code: SYG) results were really good. This stock was very expensive at listing and above 2400c in 2016 it was crazy. But price came down and earnings increased so now looking fairly priced and very well positioned in the low cost and passive space with even trading contributing around 25% to revenue. * I received an email about being charged massive fees for a trade that happened over multiple days. This is not new and is how the JSE charges. Trades on one day, same stock and all buys or sells are bulked together and charged as one trade. But trades in separate days are each charged as a new trade and so the brokerage minimums hit and can hit hard, very hard. The way to avoid is when you get that SMS for first trade to adjust the price to ensure full quantity or do an at market trade. * Next show will be 14 January; predictions with Marc Ashton, Keith Mclachlan and myself. We look back at the previous years and make new bold ones. * Position your portfolio for 2021

I hold ungeared positions.
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2020 finished n klaar I've lived a lot of years but no matter how many, none like this one. What is has done is force us to reflect on things. Frankly to reflect on pretty all things as everything got turned upside-down.

As an example, I 'had' to live in Johannesburg because of my TV work. Well, now we know that isn't the case as I have been doing weekly TV shows from my lounge since March. In the future, I continue doing TV work from my lounge, and that the lounge could be anywhere with high-speed Internet.

I also remember hard lockdown surrounded by all my 'things'. They did not make my life beautiful, I missed people and experiences.

I also remember my portfolio crashing and not even checking how bad it was. Markets recover, sure this recovery was swifter than anything I have seen before and made no sense. But markets often don't make sense and fighting them is fruitless.

It also gave us a real-time chance to measure a number of important investment considerations.

How robust were the stocks you held?
How diverse was your portfolio?
Did you react accordingly?
I sold some much-loved stocks that I thought would be in serious trouble and even bought a gold miner for the first time ever.
Did you panic?

I did not get everything right, that truthfully is never the aim. But I also did not sit stuck like a deer in the headlights. Point being, 2020 has been wild and we should reflect, reflect lots on our lives and or portfolios. If we do that right then we'll be stronger in the future.

Lastly, watch out for the push back. Lots of incentives to return to how it was, but is that what you want? Did you like the old way or do you see a new improved way or a blend? Decide and then make it happen.

JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Offshore

/ US$908billion stimulus plan proposed for the US

/ US markets at new highs

/ Salesforce buying Slack for US$27.7billion

/ Pfizer vaccine starts being administered this week in the UK

/ Oil moving higher

/ Gold bounces need to get above US$1,860

Local

/ Sasol update, likely rights issue will be smaller

/ Locusts in NC, WC & FS and returning rains

/ Barloworld results (and price surge)

/ Vukile benefiting from non-metro malls

/ Top40 closes Friday at third-highest level ever

/ Comair returns to the skies but not the market

Simon Shares * Really strong November for stocks. France and Italy had their best months ever, S&P500 +11% and JSE +10%. * The Pfizer / BioNTech vaccine has been approved for use in the UK starting next week. Limited supplies so front line workers and old people first. But this is good news and suggests that the news for 2021 will be more about rolling out of the vaccine albeit probably also lots of second and third waves. But there is a light at the end of the tunnel and it's not a train.

Upcoming events; * 03 December ~ JSE Power Hour: Position your portfolio for 2021

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Bytes UK (JSE code: BYI) JSE listing is confirmed for next Thursday.
Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE) very strong results for the year ending August 2020.
Sygnia (JSE code: SYG) issue a strong trading update, HEPS expected 62%-67% stronger, results due on Tuesday.
ASISA report record inflows into CIS in SA in Q3 while Q2 saw R88billion added as markets were collapsing. Peeps are smart.
Decent bounce in gold, but still looking weak even as it moves above the 200-day MA. I hold Pan African* (JSE code: PAN) and continue to hold. The position is small and really is insurance for just in case. 2020 has been wild and I not placing bets in 2021 just yet.
Aveng (JSE code: AEG) doing rights issue at 1.5c that will double the number of shares to 40billion! They'll then do a consolidation and always be short a consolidation.
Sasol (JSE code: SOL) seems to have cleaned up much of the mess and old enough assets to make a rights issue below the upper US$2billion level. Coupled with oil looking like it may go higher is good news for the share.
I hold ungeared positions.

JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Offshore

/ U.K. economy is forecast to contract by 11.3% this year, "the largest fall in output for 300 years," Chancellor Rishi Sunak tells MPs

/ Musk now the worlds second richest person

/ Janet Yellen tipped for Biden cabinet as Treasury Secretary

/ China imposing tariffs on Australia, especially their wine.

/ Down Jones trades above 30,000 for the first time.

/ Black Friday 2020 online shopping surges 22% to record $9 billion, Adobe says

Local

/ Huge $5billion share buy-back from Prosus and Naspers

/ Firstrand update "the earnings trend for the four months from 1 July 2020 to 31 October 2020 is reflecting a better than anticipated rebound."

/ EOH CEO, Steven van Collier testifies at the Zondo Commission

/ Lewis results and dividend results on a dividend yield of +11%

/ Acquisition and baby range expand Mr Price’s markets

/ Gold under serious pressure

Simon Says * Another week another vaccine. * U.K. economy is forecast to contract by 11.3% this year, "the largest fall in output for 300 years," Chancellor Rishi Sunak tells MPs. * US Jobless Claims +30K To 778K In Nov-21 Week, secondly weekly rise. Continuing Claims -299K to 6,071,000 for Nov-14 week. * Dow Jones trades above 30,000 for the first time on Tuesday & S&P500 closed at a new all-time high. Dow 20,000 was 25 January 2017 and 10,000 29 March 1999 (12,000 was September 2007). * Lewis (JSE code: LEW) results with a 133c interim dividend. Double that for the full year makes for a yield fo some 11.9%. * Stor-Age* (JSE code: SSS) offering their dividend as cash or new shares issued at 1240c. People asking what I'm doing? Taking the shares. * Adcorp (JSE code: ADR), stock was 130c on 15 October ahead of their trading udate. Results in Wednesday saw it trading at 600c

[caption id="attachment_24206" align="aligncenter" width="888"] Adcorp Daily[/caption]

I hold ungeared positions.

Upcoming events; * 03 December ~ JSE Power Hour: Position your portfolio for 2021

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Bitcoin is tiny, even at highs Disclaimer upfront, I have been buying Bitcoin because I like to own things that are going up, my average entry price is R204k. This is a trade, so I will take my money at some point.

Looks certain to make new all-time highs and US$20k surely sooner rather than later.

Not a bubble this time, as it was in 2017. That doesn't mean can't collapse or can't become a bubble.

Interestingly the narrative has changed, the talk of Bitcoin for payments, something I said was a long long way off, is no longer the biggie. Now it really positioning itself as an alternative asset. Remember how blockchain would save the world?

But here's what was really interesting to me, the market cap of Bitcoin. ±US$400billion! Less than Tesla, in fact very tiny. Consider how many exchanges, blogs, shows and chatter about this one asset that is so very small. The size also restricts large institutions getting involved.

For comparison, gold is about US$9trillion, NYSE about US$30trillion and total US debt US$27trillion.

JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Offshore

/ Another Monday another vaccine ~ Moderna

/ 12 million Americans are on track to lose unemployment benefits in December if Congress doesn't extend key programs that were part of the CARES Act passed in March.

/ JPMorgan forecasts negative GDP in the first quarter, the first Wall St. bank to begin forecasting a negative reading. JPM expects the economy to bounce back in

/ Amazon moving into the pharmacy business

/ Boeing 737 Max is back

/ Bitcoin heading for new highs & FSCA proposes making cryptocurrencies an asset class.

Local

/ Moody’s & Fitch downgrade SA further into junk.

/ Somebody wants City Lodge East Africa hotels

/ Results; Stor-Age*, Astral Spar

Simon Shares * Another week, another vaccine. This time from Moderna and also using the Messenger RNA as does the Pfizer / BioNTech vaccine. * Stor-Age* (JSE code: SSS) results very solid. * Wilson Bayly Holmes (JSE code: WBO) results not great as Australia hurts, again. * Raubex (JSE code: RBX) announces an R2.87billion contract win from Sanral. * Strong Spar (JSE code: SPP) results. * Boeing 737 MAX 8 returns to skies as FAA lifts grounding order. * Brait (JSE code: BAT) net asset value 771c (based on 9x EV/EBITDA), share price 388c.

[caption id="attachment_24160" align="aligncenter" width="888"] Brait monthly chart[/caption]

I hold ungeared positions.
ETF: Low fees double your investment*

Upcoming events; * 05 November ~ JSE Power Hour: Searching for income * 19 November ~ JSE Power Hour: Twenty years of ETFs

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Owning unlisted shares In the last few years, we've seen a bunch of stocks being delisted from the JSE and in pretty much all cases existing shareholders get paid out and no longer hold the stock.

Anchor (JSE code; ACG) are now proposing a delisting at 425c, but with an option to remain invested in an unlisted Anchor.

I have never held an unlisted share outside of companies I have founded or worked for a few simple reasons;

No JSE oversight
Lack of communications to minority shareholders
Majority shareholders acting as if it is their private company
Zero liquidity to buy and sell
Zero price discovery
In short, being screwed over.

That said Anchor will very much still be in the public eye and this is not usually the case when a stock delists. That will help act as a guard rail (not that they need it) so maybe it will be fairer to minority shareholders.

Certainly, I think the 425c offering is very cheeky and I still don't want to hold unlisted stocks, for many this time may be the exception.

JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Offshore

/ Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine news

/ U.K. economy expands by 15.5% in the third quarter, the most on record yet adds another Sterling150billion in stimulus

/ Disney reports first loss in 40 years, but Disney+ hits 73m subs

/ Emirates eyes return to profitability in 2022 only

/ Deutsche Bank proposes a 5% tax for people still working from home after the pandemic

/ DoorDash files IPO plans, NYSE listing

Local

/ Lockdown level 1 lite?

/ Growth Point raises R4.3billion

/ SA’s unemployment rate 30.8% in Q3

/ Sun International update gives great insight into leisure locally.

/ Telkom results

/ MultiChoice results

Simon Shares * US elections, everybody nows who won except the orange one and the GOP. * Vaccine news from Pfizer and BioNTech has changed market behaviour. Banks and consumer stocks now the rage while tech and gold is falling. * Locally banks are flying.

Fini15 daily chart

Interesting to see the JSE All Share up circa 14.4% over the last 6. months yet its biggest constituent Naspers only up 3.71% over the same period. A lot of underlying and broad strength. @SimonPB @CAPITALSIGMAza @smalltalkdaily

— Mark Tobin (@mtobinwex) November 11, 2020

Searching for income

Upcoming events; * 05 November ~ JSE Power Hour: Searching for income * 19 November ~ JSE Power Hour: Twenty years of ETFs

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Bombastic billionaires* Somebody strikes it big in one field, and now they think they're the smartest person in any field.

A CEO of a successful company leaves to start a new company, they just assume it'll work and investors believe them. We see this all the time.

The successful business person thinks they know how to run the government.

Heck, we see it during this pandemic when suddenly every second person was (and often still thinks they are) an epidemiologist.

There are some exceptions; Elon Musk and Steve Jobs two who come to mind.

The successful person also readily ignores the role of luck in their success. Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

The answer is simple. Just because somebody is great in one area, do not assume that they have any skills in any other area.

Phrase stolen from Anton Harber

JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited.

JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.