The Moses and Methuselah Podcast: Recent Episodes
Jonathan Davis & Peter Seilern
A weekly discussion on developments in the financial markets, and what they mean for governments, investors and tax payers. Hosted by Jonathan Davis and Peter Seilern.
Summary
Peter and Jonathan take stock of the financial markets after the Federal Reserve raises interest rates yet again and debate the possible impact of artificial intelligence in the short and longer term.
00:32 - Nearing the end of the rate hike cycle?
02:54 - Indicators of a soft landing
06:43 - Increasing optimism
08:12 - The bond market in a soft landing
13:18 - A change in global financial conditions
17:21 - AI mania
22:39 - Positive real interest rates
24:54 - Close
About Your Hosts
Jonathan Davis started his career as a financial journalist on UK national newspapers, including The Times and The Economist, before qualifying as a professional investor and moving into a new portfolio career as an author, columnist (for The Independent and Financial Times), publisher and investment strategist. He is currently the editor of the annual Investment Trusts Handbook. You can find his newsletter and weekly investment trust podcast on his Money-Makers website. Apart from family, his chief recreation is playing bridge at a high level.
Peter Seilern began his career in financial services in October 1973, which coincided with the first oil shock and was followed by a brutal bear market and an explosion in inflation. After gaining experience in all aspects of the banking industry in Austria, Germany and Switzerland, he founded his own investment management business in 1989, today called Seilern Investment Management, based in London. Born in Trieste, Italy, in 1952, his background is quintessentially pan-European and he deeply believes in the necessity for European nations to continue to strive for ever closer political, economic and monetary union. He has been married for almost thirty-nine years and has three adult children. His hobbies include making and listening to music and reading.Buy Peter’s book Only the Best Will Do, master investor Peter Seilern reveals everything you need to know to practise the art of quality growth investing: finding the companies that can reliably deliver steady and strong growth for the long term.
Summary
As central banks wrestle with the "trilemma" of balancing the risks of inflation, recession and financial stability, Jonathan and Peter debate whether the bond market is giving us an accurate taste of what is to come.
00:32 - The first six months of the year
03:33 - Pundits predicting the market
10:25 - Getting inflation wrong
15:53 - Bond market signals
19:51 - Pricing in a trilemma
24:37 - Close
About Your Hosts
Jonathan Davis started his career as a financial journalist on UK national newspapers, including The Times and The Economist, before qualifying as a professional investor and moving into a new portfolio career as an author, columnist (for The Independent and Financial Times), publisher and investment strategist. He is currently the editor of the annual Investment Trusts Handbook. You can find his newsletter and weekly investment trust podcast on his Money-Makers website. Apart from family, his chief recreation is playing bridge at a high level.
Peter Seilern began his career in financial services in October 1973, which coincided with the first oil shock and was followed by a brutal bear market and an explosion in inflation. After gaining experience in all aspects of the banking industry in Austria, Germany and Switzerland, he founded his own investment management business in 1989, today called Seilern Investment Management, based in London. Born in Trieste, Italy, in 1952, his background is quintessentially pan-European and he deeply believes in the necessity for European nations to continue to strive for ever closer political, economic and monetary union. He has been married for almost thirty-nine years and has three adult children. His hobbies include making and listening to music and reading.Buy Peter’s book Only the Best Will Do, master investor Peter Seilern reveals everything you need to know to practise the art of quality growth investing: finding the companies that can reliably deliver steady and strong growth for the long term.
Summary
The collapse of Odey Asset Management, a high profile London hedge fund business, following allegations about the behaviour of its founder Crispin Odey, raises a number of important questions - about the management of private firms, the treatment of women in the workplace and the role of the media and regulator in financial services. Peter and Jonathan talk through the issues in our latest episode.
00:31 - Welcome back
02:33 - Reaction to the Odey Asset Management story
06:04 - Employee grievance procedures
12:57 - Evaluating who is a fit and proper person
18:47 - Additional regulation on hedge funds
22:07 - The increasing role of women in top jobs
25:51 - Close
About Your Hosts
Jonathan Davis started his career as a financial journalist on UK national newspapers, including The Times and The Economist, before qualifying as a professional investor and moving into a new portfolio career as an author, columnist (for The Independent and Financial Times), publisher and investment strategist. He is currently the editor of the annual Investment Trusts Handbook. You can find his newsletter and weekly investment trust podcast on his Money-Makers website. Apart from family, his chief recreation is playing bridge at a high level.
Peter Seilern began his career in financial services in October 1973, which coincided with the first oil shock and was followed by a brutal bear market and an explosion in inflation. After gaining experience in all aspects of the banking industry in Austria, Germany and Switzerland, he founded his own investment management business in 1989, today called Seilern Investment Management, based in London. Born in Trieste, Italy, in 1952, his background is quintessentially pan-European and he deeply believes in the necessity for European nations to continue to strive for ever closer political, economic and monetary union. He has been married for almost thirty-nine years and has three adult children. His hobbies include making and listening to music and reading.Buy Peter’s book Only the Best Will Do, master investor Peter Seilern reveals everything you need to know to practise the art of quality growth investing: finding the companies that can reliably deliver steady and strong growth for the long term.
Summary
We return to the issue of Brexit - what impact has it had on the UK and the EU, both economically and politically? We compare our different perspectives, one UK-based, the other Eurocentric.
00:32 - Welcome back
06:32 - UK and European cultural differences
10:58 - Trends in the UK since Brexit
16:53 - The need for reform in the UK's political system
20:45 - Migration
25:13 - A new referendum on the EU?
About Your Hosts
Jonathan Davis started his career as a financial journalist on UK national newspapers, including The Times and The Economist, before qualifying as a professional investor and moving into a new portfolio career as an author, columnist (for The Independent and Financial Times), publisher and investment strategist. He is currently the editor of the annual Investment Trusts Handbook. You can find his newsletter and weekly investment trust podcast on his Money-Makers website. Apart from family, his chief recreation is playing bridge at a high level.
Peter Seilern began his career in financial services in October 1973, which coincided with the first oil shock and was followed by a brutal bear market and an explosion in inflation. After gaining experience in all aspects of the banking industry in Austria, Germany and Switzerland, he founded his own investment management business in 1989, today called Seilern Investment Management, based in London. Born in Trieste, Italy, in 1952, his background is quintessentially pan-European and he deeply believes in the necessity for European nations to continue to strive for ever closer political, economic and monetary union. He has been married for almost thirty-nine years and has three adult children. His hobbies include making and listening to music and reading.Buy Peter’s book Only the Best Will Do, master investor Peter Seilern reveals everything you need to know to practise the art of quality growth investing: finding the companies that can reliably deliver steady and strong growth for the long term.
Summary
In our latest edition Peter and Jonathan discuss the likely impact on the bond market of tighter credit conditions and the potential failure of Congress and the Biden administration to agree to an increase in the Federal debt ceiling in the United States. Are these issues in the price already?
00:32 - Welcome back
01:19 - Credit conditions
05:53 - Bond yields and recession
08:24 - Commercial real estate
14:52 -The Federal debt ceiling
22:05 - Close
About Your Hosts
Jonathan Davis started his career as a financial journalist on UK national newspapers, including The Times and The Economist, before qualifying as a professional investor and moving into a new portfolio career as an author, columnist (for The Independent and Financial Times), publisher and investment strategist. He is currently the editor of the annual Investment Trusts Handbook. You can find his newsletter and weekly investment trust podcast on his Money-Makers website. Apart from family, his chief recreation is playing bridge at a high level.
Peter Seilern began his career in financial services in October 1973, which coincided with the first oil shock and was followed by a brutal bear market and an explosion in inflation. After gaining experience in all aspects of the banking industry in Austria, Germany and Switzerland, he founded his own investment management business in 1989, today called Seilern Investment Management, based in London. Born in Trieste, Italy, in 1952, his background is quintessentially pan-European and he deeply believes in the necessity for European nations to continue to strive for ever closer political, economic and monetary union. He has been married for almost thirty-nine years and has three adult children. His hobbies include making and listening to music and reading.Buy Peter’s book Only the Best Will Do, master investor Peter Seilern reveals everything you need to know to practise the art of quality growth investing: finding the companies that can reliably deliver steady and strong growth for the long term.
Summary
In the latest episode Peter and Jonathan, quoting Warren Buffett liberally, take a look at the dynamics of the fund management business, the factors that make for a successful long term relationship between investors and the stewards of their money and the reasons why in a sales-driven industry mutual happiness is only achieved by a minority of firms.
00:31 - Welcome back
01:15 - The importance of marketing and communications
05:05 - Getting and keeping clients
09:03 - Value for money
14:37 - Judging the best performers
19:44 - Risks in finding good managers
23:44 - Managers balancing time and priorities
27:22 - Publicly quoted fund management companies
32:09 - Close
About Your Hosts
Jonathan Davis started his career as a financial journalist on UK national newspapers, including The Times and The Economist, before qualifying as a professional investor and moving into a new portfolio career as an author, columnist (for The Independent and Financial Times), publisher and investment strategist. He is currently the editor of the annual Investment Trusts Handbook. You can find his newsletter and weekly investment trust podcast on his Money-Makers website. Apart from family, his chief recreation is playing bridge at a high level.
Peter Seilern began his career in financial services in October 1973, which coincided with the first oil shock and was followed by a brutal bear market and an explosion in inflation. After gaining experience in all aspects of the banking industry in Austria, Germany and Switzerland, he founded his own investment management business in 1989, today called Seilern Investment Management, based in London. Born in Trieste, Italy, in 1952, his background is quintessentially pan-European and he deeply believes in the necessity for European nations to continue to strive for ever closer political, economic and monetary union. He has been married for almost thirty-nine years and has three adult children. His hobbies include making and listening to music and reading.Buy Peter’s book Only the Best Will Do, master investor Peter Seilern reveals everything you need to know to practise the art of quality growth investing: finding the companies that can reliably deliver steady and strong growth for the long term.
Summary
Equity and bond markets have stabilised after the banking tremors we saw in March, but bond investors remain convinced that inflation and future interest rates will come back down to earth more quickly than many vocal market pundits think. Peter and Jonathan are not entirely agreed on how this will all play out and continue their debate on this issue, while agreeing that as credit conditions tighten availability of finance will be more important than its cost, making strong and prudently managed balance sheets a primary consideration for equity and fund investors.
00:32 - Welcome back
00:50 - How central banks balance reducing inflation versus promoting instability in the banking system?
05:36 - Will the Fed change course?
09:10 - Governments and banks pulling in different directions
16:20 - Sell the last rate hike
20:15 - Impact of the availability of credit
25:41 - Close
About Your Hosts
Jonathan Davis started his career as a financial journalist on UK national newspapers, including The Times and The Economist, before qualifying as a professional investor and moving into a new portfolio career as an author, columnist (for The Independent and Financial Times), publisher and investment strategist. He is currently the editor of the annual Investment Trusts Handbook. You can find his newsletter and weekly investment trust podcast on his Money-Makers website. Apart from family, his chief recreation is playing bridge at a high level.
Peter Seilern began his career in financial services in October 1973, which coincided with the first oil shock and was followed by a brutal bear market and an explosion in inflation. After gaining experience in all aspects of the banking industry in Austria, Germany and Switzerland, he founded his own investment management business in 1989, today called Seilern Investment Management, based in London. Born in Trieste, Italy, in 1952, his background is quintessentially pan-European and he deeply believes in the necessity for European nations to continue to strive for ever closer political, economic and monetary union. He has been married for almost thirty-nine years and has three adult children. His hobbies include making and listening to music and reading.Buy Peter’s book Only the Best Will Do, master investor Peter Seilern reveals everything you need to know to practise the art of quality growth investing: finding the companies that can reliably deliver steady and strong growth for the long term.
Summary
The authorities may have averted a new global banking crisis for now by their handling of Silicon Valley Bank and the rushed shotgun marriage that handed Credit Suisse to fellow Swiss bank UBS, but there will be plenty of ramifications for the financial markets to absorb. In their latest podcast, now appearing fortnightly, Peter Seilern and Jonathan Davis discuss the causes of the bank failures and what it all means for regulators, depositors, bondholders and shareholders in an age of rising interest rates and instant communications - not to mention for Switzerland, which in Peter's view risks being seen as a "banana republic" for the way it chose to handle the Credit Suisse debacle.
01:20 - Has the banking crisis stabilised for now?
07:15 - Role of management failures
08:35 - Swiss approach to banking crisis
12:51 - Shareholder impact
14:55 - Implications for EU banks
17:12 - Has UBS got a good deal?
23:24 - Behind the collapse of SVB
26:34 - Unintended consequences and real world implications
36:39 - Wrapping up
About Your Hosts
Jonathan Davis started his career as a financial journalist on UK national newspapers, including The Times and The Economist, before qualifying as a professional investor and moving into a new portfolio career as an author, columnist (for The Independent and Financial Times), publisher and investment strategist. He is currently the editor of the annual Investment Trusts Handbook, an adviser to Saunderson House and a Member of the Chartered Institute for Securities and Investment. You can find his newsletter and weekly investment trust podcast on his Money-Makers website. Apart from family, his chief recreation is playing bridge at a high level.
Peter Seilern began his career in financial services in October 1973, which coincided with the first oil shock and was followed by a brutal bear market and an explosion in inflation. After gaining experience in all aspects of the banking industry in Austria, Germany and Switzerland, he founded his own investment management business in 1989, today called Seilern Investment Management, based in London. Born in Trieste, Italy, in 1952, his background is quintessentially pan-European and he deeply believes in the necessity for European nations to continue to strive for ever closer political, economic and monetary union. He has been married for almost thirty-nine years and has three adult children. His hobbies include making and listening to music and reading.
Buy Peter’s book Only the Best Will Do, master investor Peter Seilern reveals everything you need to know to practise the art of quality growth investing: finding the companies that can reliably deliver steady and strong growth for the long term.
Join Jonathan and Peter as they discuss the collapse of SVB and what this means for the global banking sector.
Join Peter and Jonathan as they discuss recent developments and alternative perspectives on the events in Ukraine.
Join Peter and Jonathan as they continue to discuss the influence of Vladimir Putin on the financial markets.
Jonathan Davis and Peter Seilern discuss Putin and Russia and offer some interesting perspectives on both.
Jonathan and Peter return for a third series, starting with a discussion on what influence, if any, politics at the national level and geopolitics at the world level have on financial markets.
Esteemed Hollywood actor, author, director and film-maker, Rupert Everett, joins Jonathan and Peter in a revealing and intimate conversation about life on and off the camera.
Jonathan and Peter explore the landscape of how politicians leverage "truth" in politics today..
Peter and Jonathan bring new angles and elements to this discussion of a fascinating historical figure.
Jonathan and Peter consider the implications of this statement in the context of the film and the wider world:
“The press is to serve the governed, not the governors” (US Supreme Court).
Jonathan and Peter discuss the “The Lives of Others” (Das Leben der Anderen), the Oscar winning film by Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck.
Jonathan and Peter discuss the ongoing relevance of this work as pertains to Europe and the wider issues playing out today.
A look at how events in the USA since November have catalysed a style rotation in the markets worldwide.
Jonathan and Peter discuss the earliest days of a post Brexit New Year and how this might impact both sides… A balanced and thoughtful discussion looking at different perspectives.
How prices can diverge from value
How many operators were wrong-footed
Expect the unexpected
Different interpretations of value investing.
Will value investing come back into fashion?
- Who is right? The media, the economy or the stock markets?
- As lockdowns are relaxed, consumers resume spending...
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Violence in the streets has no effect on financial markets. How come?
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Massive new jobs unexpectedly created in US.
- Safe haven status
- International liquidity squeeze
- Franco-German recovery fund
- Frugal Four Fighback
- Interest rates to stay lower for longer
- Conventional monetary policy ineffective
- The supply demand struggle
Shell’s Dividend Cut
- Oil price collapses by 70% year to date.
- Oil majors’ promises to shareholders impossible to keep.
- Dividend cover falls relentlessly.
Corporate Bond Markets
- From death to resurrection
- Central banks do whatever it takes…
- ...including buying junk bonds.
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Investment Trusts:
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How they differ from conventional open-ended funds.
- Why they have enjoyed better performances this year.
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Where is the downside?
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Sector performance comparisons year-to-date:
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Healthcare and consumer staples lessen the pain.
- Financials and energy stocks have been the worst hit.
- Can unloved share prices rebound?
- "Corona Bonds" in Europe?
- Why the doomsters are wrong.
- Don’t fight the Fed.
- Company earnings and valuations.
Markets rally at fastest weekly rate since 1974. Will the health scare or markets prevail?
- Is it a dead cat bounce?
- Economic forecasters could not be gloomier.
- Should governments interfere on dividends?
- Two months ago we never had it so good. It can’t last, said the experts.
- Suddenly, there were three Black Swans.
- Central banks flood the markets. But who will foot the bill?