#Deflation #Fed #Rates #Fiscal #Coal #China #Iran #Venezuela

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Welcome to the latest episode of "The Week Ahead" with your host, @Tony Nash / @tonynashnerd! We've assembled a fabulous lineup featuring Alex Gurevich, Tracy Shuchart and Albert Marko.

Alex / @agurevich23 on his 2023 thesis about the coming deflationary spiral titled “Real Rates Tsunami.” He talks us through why he believes we are on a path to deflation, which will then be followed by a rise in unemployment and, possibly, recession. He talks through global factors like China’s current deflationary environment and the impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI).

Tracy / @chigrl talks about the rise in US coal exports and how emerging and middle income markets are including more coal in their power generation mix. Part of this is due to higher interest rates, which impose higher costs in green power generation projects. She focuses on India and Narendra Modi’s use of coal for energy security.

Albert / @amlivemon talks us through the US government’s retaliatory actions toward Iran after 3 US service people were killed in attacks in Jordan. Is the US government’s slow deliberation good for this situation or does it make the US look unprepared? He then talks through US sanctions on Venezuela and the potential impact on crude prices in the US.

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This is the 98th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what’s coming in markets.

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Welcome to the latest episode of The Week Ahead with your host, Tony Nash! Today, we've assembled a stellar lineup featuring Tavi Costa, Albert Marko, and Tracy Shuchart, ready to dive into some captivating discussions.

📈 Tavi Costa on The Fed, Inflation, and Geopolitics:
Tavi takes the lead, unraveling the intricacies of the US stock market's divergence from emerging markets. Get ready for a deep dive into the impact of inflation on earnings and a critical look at the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Tavi also shares insights on commodity prices, injecting a touch of sarcasm on the potential actions of the Fed.

💥 Albert Marko on Iran's Aggressive Moves:
Albert steps up to discuss Iran's recent bold actions, including attacks in Pakistan, Syria, and Iraq. Explore the motivations behind Iran's sudden assertiveness and the potential outcomes of these strategic moves.

🌊 Tracy Shuchart on Red Sea Issues:
Tracy guides us through the complexities of Red Sea issues, examining the stability of crude prices and potential triggers for a spike. Dive into the impact on the shipping industry, including insurers' adjustments and airfreight companies considering alternative routes.

Join us for this engaging episode as our guests provide unique perspectives on these hot topics. Subscribe, like, and hit the notification bell to stay tuned for more insightful discussions on The Week Ahead!

This is the 96th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/t-DkDxpAKtY

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Welcome to another episode of the Week Ahead! Today, we've got a fantastic lineup with Mike Green, Tracy Shuchart, and Albert Marko getting into some of these hot topics.

🚀 Bitcoin ETFs, Inflation, and Labor Data with Mike

Mike breaks down the recent approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, the surge in Bitcoin prices, and contrasting views from Cathie Wood and Vanguard. We'll discuss how these ETFs could shake up the crypto landscape.

Plus, Mike shares insights on inflation and wage growth, exploring whether inflation might take an unexpected turn this year. And of course, we'll touch on the intricacies of US jobs data and the impact of flawed birth/death adjustments.

🛠️ Industrial Metals and Junior Miners with Tracy

Tracy explores the recent rally and subsequent dip in prices, keeping an eye on the copper futures and the Sprott Junior Copper Miners ETF. Tracy breaks down the factors influencing these markets and what to watch out for in the near future.

💼 The Yellen Factor with Albert

Albert discusses the Yellen factor as he explores recent developments, such as the potential end of negative rates in Japan and Lagarde's stance on the ECB. Albert raises a thought-provoking question: Are the BOJ and ECB statements influencing the Fed's dovishness? We'll unpack the global economic chessboard and how it might impact the USD.

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This is the 95th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

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Welcome 2024 with this brand new episode of The Week Ahead. Joining us for the first time is Neely Tamminga with our regular guests Albert Marko, and Tracy Shuchart.

Key themes for this episode:

1. The US Consumer & Employment
Neely, an expert in consumer trends, joins us to explore the financial landscape with a focus on consumers being overextended, multiple job holders, and the ability to repay debt. She provides valuable insights into the challenges that consumers face.

Also, she shares her forecasts for January and February, discussing weaker demand optics and potential layoffs, and helps us understand how the 2024 consumption dynamics might impact consumer confidence in this presidential cycle.

2. Turkey’s Geopolitical Aspirations
Albert takes us on a geopolitical journey, especially focusing on Turkey. What are the lesser-known aspects of Turkey's influence in the Middle East and Africa?

Albert also helps us explore the impact of Turkish defense exports, the role of Lira devaluation in geopolitical priorities, and understand Turkey's key bilateral relationships—Russia, China, Iran, Europe, and the US.

3. Is Nuclear Overbought?
Tracy brings her expertise to the table to address the lingering question: Is nuclear overbought? Tracy discusses the long-standing fascination with nuclear investments and the recent surge in hedge funds loading up on uranium.

Tracy explores the reasons behind this bullish trend, questioning whether nuclear is overbought and what insights these funds might possess.

This is the 94th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Time Stamp:
00:00: Start
01:59: Neely Tamminga's Perspective on Consumers
08:39: Concerns about Consumer Spending
10:57: Impact of Luxury Market
14:47: Discussion on Turkey's Influence
23:49: Turkey's Role in the Middle East and Africa
32:26: Hedge Funds Investing in Uranium
40:06: Political Impact on Nuclear Energy

Watch this on Youtube: https://youtu.be/PotrPb-VVQk

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This 2023 year-end special of The Week Ahead has a lineup of great guests, discussing topics to prepare you for the upcoming 2024.

Brent Johnson on 2024 Growth, Disinflation, Central Banks, and the Dollar:
We tackle the Fed’s stance; frankly, it’s a bit perplexing. With various opinions floating around, from 275bp cuts to just 2, the big question is, why the urgency if everything seems fine? Brent helps us get clarity on that.

We’re hovering around 5.5%, and markets are soaring, but what’s the rush? Brent sheds light on why 2024 might be “priced for perfection” and explores potential downside risks, from Fed miscalculations to unexpected Dollar strength.

Tracy Shuchart on Crude Quality:
Turning our attention to shale, Tracy dismisses the Texas export buzz but gets into a more interesting topic – crude quality. Tracy and Ralph discuss on Twitter the nuances of shale and the importance of understanding crude quality, especially with recent stories about Texas exports for tax reasons. What are the secrets of gassy wells and their impact on the market?
Albert Marko on Yemen-Red Sea Shipping Risks:
With rockets fired by Houthis, a coalition is formed to protect vessels, leading some shipping companies to bypass the Red Sea and opt for the longer route around Africa. Albert gives us the lowdown on how long this situation might persist, its reasons, and the potential impacts on shipping.

Join us for these insightful discussions and gain a clearer perspective on the year ahead.

This is the 93rd episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/mR7wLeSTpHM

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This Dec. 18th episode of The Week Ahead is hosted as usual by Tony Nash, with first-time guest Anthony Crudele, joining Michael Belkin and Tracy Shuchart. In this episode, the panel discuss:

Year-End Market Temptations with Anthony: Anthony walks us through the intriguing observation that more traders encounter challenges during the year-end period than at any other time. We dissect the dynamics behind this trend, offering keen insights into market behavior during this crucial period.
Rotation Dynamics in the Market with Michael: Michael takes center stage, discussing the ongoing rotation within the market. Starting with the Dollar’s significant post-Fed meeting decline, Michael provides insights into the depth of this fall. We then explore the current sentiment toward the tech sector and potential factors that might redirect investor focus. For those with an eye on gold miners, Michael explores potential advantages amid the declining Dollar, spotlighting $CDE. He articulates the thesis behind this potential opportunity and discusses the factors that make it compelling.
COP28 and the Market’s Take on Fossil Fuels with Tracy: Tracy leads a discussion on COP28, shedding light on the market’s interpretation of the climate talks. Despite positive sentiments surrounding the event, Tracy provides an alternative perspective based on the wording of the final resolution. Discover how the markets are responding and the implications for investors.

This episode offers a focused exploration of these three key themes, featuring expert insights and candid discussions. Join us for a deep dive into the forces shaping the weeks ahead. Stay informed and stay ahead of the curve.

This is the 92nd episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/5_O4Ce1Rclc

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Welcome to a special geopolitics edition of the Week Ahead! In this episode, we’re diving into crucial geopolitical topics with our guests: Albert Marko, Virginia Tuckey, and Ralph Schoellhammer.

1. Russia’s Growing Relationships: Albert sheds light on Putin’s recent visits to UAE and Saudi Arabia and Raisi’s visit to Moscow. The guests discuss the implications for Russia, its influence, and the dynamic with China. Is Russia acting as a proxy for China in the Middle East?

2. Upcoming Elections: Ralph covers elections in the EU, Austria, Germany, and France. Are voters leaning towards populism? How does the situation in Ukraine influence European elections? Virginia and Albert discuss the upcoming US elections and key issues, including support for Ukraine and commitment to Israel. The big question: Will Biden run, and what about Trump’s potential nomination?

3. LatAm’s Battle of Ideas: Virginia takes us into the dramatic election of Javier Milei. Will Milei face challenges in implementing his agenda? How will he be received by regional counterparts, especially leftists like Lula in Brazil?

What’s the outlook for the US-Argentina relationship? A quick look at the ongoing developments in Venezuela and Guyana, and assessing the potential risks involved.

This is the 91st episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/b6xjLlRpVfo

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Welcome to “The Week Ahead” with your host Tony Nash.

1. Bullish economic resilience. Jonny Matthews discusses various economic aspects, including the resilience of the consumer in the US due to low mortgage rates, potential concerns about a secondary wave of inflation, the impact of rates on corporate debt, and the market’s expectations of rate cuts. Additionally, he highlights the challenges in achieving the Fed’s 2% inflation target and the complexities involved in making adjustments to the target. The discussion also covers the Federal Reserve’s potential response to labor market trends, inflation targeting by central banks, the recent OPEC meeting, and an exploration of the silver market, including supply-demand imbalances, industrial uses of silver, and potential investment opportunities in the sector.

2. Fed and inflation targeting. Albert Marko discusses the Federal Reserve’s handling of inflation and interest rates, expressing concern about a potential second wave of inflation and skepticism about the market’s expectations of rate cuts. He also touches on the challenges of hitting the 2% inflation target and potential changes in the Fed’s inflation target. Additionally, he highlights the volatility and unpredictability of financial and commodities markets, emphasizing the impact of factors such as interest rates, demand and supply imbalances, and the complexities of investing.

3. Oil (OPEC) and Silver (ready for liftoff?). Tracy Shuchart discusses various economic factors, including the resilience of the consumer and businesses, the potential for inflation, and the implications of Fed policies. She also talks about the impact of interest rates on small and medium-sized companies, the potential for higher energy prices, and the evolving stance of the Fed on inflation targets.

This is the 90th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/LZZ3bV7JKas

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Welcome to "The Week Ahead" with your host Tony Nash.

1. The Upcoming USD Squeeze. Michael Ncoletos discusses the potential impact of a US dollar squeeze on the global economy, focusing on the factors contributing to the potential strengthening of the US dollar and its implications on emerging markets, particularly about their dollar-denominated debt. He also highlights the significance of interest rates and the cost of money in determining investment decisions.

2. Year-end market check. Bob Iaccino discusses the current state of the markets, emphasizing the impact of higher interest rates on the tech sector and the significance of the energy market in relation to inflation. He also mentions the potential impact of technology stocks on the economy and expresses concerns about the future performance of tech stocks in 2024, particularly in the second half of the year. Additionally, he discusses the potential for Argentina to dollarize its economy and the challenges and potential for success of a conservative government in Argentina, drawing parallels with other countries and global political trends.

3. China, US & geopolitics. Albert Marko discusses the recent election in Argentina and expresses skepticism about the potential for significant change under the newly elected leader, Milei. He mentions that Argentina is burdened with a significant amount of debt and that it would be challenging for Milei to make substantial changes without a strong support structure or clear policy direction. Marko also raises concerns about the influence of leftist forces in Latin America and suggests that Argentina may be set up to fail. He expresses doubts about the feasibility of Milei's plan to dollarize Argentina given the country's debt and limited dollar reserves. Overall, he indicates a reserved judgment on Milei's potential impact and suggests that the composition of Milei's cabinet would be crucial in determining the direction of Argentina's policies in the next 12 months.

This is the 89th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/oBXdC7c_TFo

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Welcome to "The Week Ahead" with your host Tony Nash.

The Stock Market - Gone. Tony Greer provides insights into the current state of the stock market and where it might go before year-end. He also explores the relative levels of the SPX and the VIX, and shares valuable perspectives on where equity markets might head.
Record Oil Demand & Growing Gas Supply. Tracy Shuchart discusses the dichotomy of global oil demand reaching record highs while crude oil prices continue to fall. She discusses the implications of Saudi Arabia's commitment to supply cuts and the EIA's projections on LNG export capacity. Why are LNG export facilities concentrated on the Gulf, and what does it mean for global markets?
China, US & Geopolitics. Albert Marko reflects on recent diplomatic victories between the US and China, particularly the reassurance from China regarding Taiwan. He shares the dynamics of US-China relations, the risks involved, and China's change in diplomatic tone. Whare are the potential geopolitical risks on the horizon and the internal and external challenges facing China?

This is the 88th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/LLdohzgedGo

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Welcome to “The Week Ahead” with your host Tony Nash. In this episode, we discussed three crucial topics:

Rates, market pricing & earnings quality: Bob Elliott discussed various topics including the Federal Reserve’s approach to controlling inflation, the impact of interest rates on the housing market, the challenges of small modular reactor (SMR) projects in the nuclear energy sector, and the outlook for crude oil prices.

He highlighted the potential for a soft landing in the economy going into an election year, the complexities of the housing market, the difficulties faced by SMR projects, and the favorable risk-return profile for investing in oil.

Dollar, commodities and elections: Albert Marko discussed various economic and financial topics, including the potential impact of fiscal and monetary policies, interest rates, inflation, and the outlook for the dollar and commodities. He also touched on the challenges and prospects of small modular reactors in the energy sector, as well as the implications of energy prices, particularly in relation to crude oil. Additionally, he shared insights on the housing market and the potential impact of political dynamics on the economy.
SMR: Death of nuclear power?: Albert and Bob discussed the potential death of new nuclear power in the US, citing increased costs and R&D as contributing factors. They also mentioned the challenges related to transporting small modular reactors and the regulatory restrictions associated with them. Additionally, they highlighted the difficulties in developing new green energy technologies and emphasized the need for incremental progress and realistic expectations.

Finally, the conversation shifted to the outlook for crude prices, with Bob Elliott and Albert Marko expressing a favorable view of oil as a growth asset, considering its current pricing and potential for a diversifying bet against economic weakness.

This is the 87th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/LIeYrkSqeXc

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Welcome to “The Week Ahead” with your host Tony Nash. In this episode, we discussed three crucial topics:

1. Deposit flight, banking and deflation: Hugh Hendry discusses several topics in the episode. He talks about his willingness to buy during a significant market correction and expresses his belief in a potential credit event.

He also discusses the impact of higher interest rates on government policies, the devaluation of the Chinese yuan, and the relationship between the Federal Reserve and regional banks.

Hendry mentions the challenges faced by China due to its real estate market and the potential consequences of collapsing property prices. He highlights the fragility of the euro dollar system and predicts the end of the bond bull market.

Hendry also discusses the impact of green technologies on China’s power generation sector and expresses skepticism about their viability.

Overall, he shares his perspective on current market conditions and his strategies for investing, acknowledging the uncertainty and potential for significant changes in various factors.

2. How broken are wind and solar?: Tracy Shuchart highlights how higher interest rates are discouraging people from participating in green initiatives, despite governments wanting to promote them.

Tracy also mentions the potential for further consolidation in the banking industry, particularly among smaller banks, due to unrealized losses. She predicts that bailouts for more banks may be necessary and expresses concerns about banks not taking on sufficient risk.

Additionally, Tracy discusses the recent write-downs in the wind and solar industry, attributing them to rising interest rates. She suggests that higher rates undermine investments in the Green New Deal and the Green transition. Tracy also talks about the challenges in the US solar industry, the impact of tariffs or import bans from Asia, and China’s advantage in terms of resources and supply chain.

Lastly, she mentions her investment strategy in hard assets due to her belief in upcoming problems and emphasizes the importance of old and hard assets in her trading strategy.

3. The “melt up”: Albert Marko discusses the challenges faced by younger generations in affording homes due to artificially high real estate prices in the US, caused by cash buyers and low mortgage rates.

He also discusses the uncertainty surrounding the actions of the Chinese government regarding real estate valuations and the potential impact on their credit rating.

Furthermore, Marko highlights concerns about the banking industry, including the potential for consolidation and the risks faced by smaller banks.

He expresses skepticism about a potential “melt up” in stock prices and emphasizes the need for caution in the current market situation. Overall, he stresses the importance of monitoring economic factors and preparing for potential market disruptions.

This is the 86th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/KM3gZ4ysb7c

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Welcome to “The Week Ahead” with your host Tony Nash. In this episode, we discussed three crucial topics:

1. Housing: Time to pay attention: David Cervantes addresses the US housing market, noting its robustness during the pandemic due to backlogs but predicting a slowdown now that those backlogs have resolved. He stresses the significance of monitoring housing prices, especially rental prices, as indicators of inflation. Cervantes also discusses the frozen state of existing home sales, emphasizing the influence of wages on rents. He highlights the Federal Reserve's focus on real estate and wage channels to manage aggregate demand. Additionally, he suggests potential investment prospects in the housing sector, including homebuilders and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs).

2. Fed & Bond Vigilantes: Gary Brode covers various topics in his discussion, including concerns about excessive government spending and monetization of debt. He highlights the impact on the bond market, expressing concern about inflation and the potential slowdown in the economy. Brode also discusses historical income taxes, property taxes in Texas, and challenges faced by the orange crop in Florida.

3. Soft commodities gone wild: Tracy Shuchart conversation covers a range of topics, from California’s potential as the top orange crop producer to student loan repayment’s possible impact on the housing market. Additionally, she touches on the conflict between monetary and fiscal policies, factors affecting soft commodities, and regional issues in the NatGas market. The discussion wraps up with speculation about the effect of snowfall on natural gas prices.

Join us for a clear and concise analysis of these important topics in plain language you can understand. Stay informed for the week ahead! Don’t forget to like, subscribe, and share for more valuable insights.

Key themes:

Housing: Time to pay attention
Fed & Bond Vigilantes
Soft commodities gone wild

This is the 85th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/5oA_JWuM2-8

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Welcome to "The Week Ahead" with your host Tony Nash. Key themes for this discussion are:

Supply Chain Risk: Middle East Conflict

Ross Kennedy leads this segment, diving into the critical issue of supply chain risk amid the current Middle East conflict. He explores the US's supply chain capabilities in the face of geopolitical risks, including the historical context before WW2 and analyzes US political realities in Washington, D.C., and its intelligence gathering capability.

Ross also examines the US's share of container shipping, the challenges of distance, and dependence on different shipping carriers and discusses the inhospitable nature of the Suez Canal and Eastern Mediterranean.

Further, Ross assesses the US's reliance on European "commercial navies" and considers the potential impact on various commodities over the medium term due to ongoing political risks in the Middle East and beyond.

Geopolitical Dovishness

Albert Marko takes the lead in discussing geopolitical dovishness. He examine how dovish statements by Fed speakers have unfolded in response to recent geopolitical events, such as those in Israel. Albert also analyzes the elevated PPI and CPI reports and their impact on market dynamics, including fluctuating yields. He also gave insights into the future of the Federal Reserve and Treasury activities, and how we can discern the direction they're taking.

Risk or Recession Back On?

Michael Belkin guides us through this segment and explores the dynamics of the tech trade and the recent resurgence of shares in companies like META. He takes into the intriguing analysis of a potential recession following a series of rate hikes and a 19-month lag.

Understand what he expects as the economy slows. What factors contribute to this scenario regarding the VIX (volatility index) and whether its movement is primarily influenced by recession expectations or other factors.

This is the 84th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

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Welcome to “The Week Ahead” with your host, Tony Nash! In this episode, we engage in thought-provoking discussions on a range of critical topics:

Price Disinflation Recession: Our expert panel, featuring Seth Golden, challenges conventional wisdom by analyzing the rise in manufacturing volumes and its implications for the economy. Are we on the cusp of a period where valuation multiples could expand once again?

Also, discover differing perspectives on inflation and disinflation as our panelists share their views on the deceleration of inflation rates and concerns about wage inflation and political policies. Explore the impact of interest rates on the housing market and the potential for lower prices due to disinflation. We also shed light on the critical role of diesel prices in the economy.

Crude Tumbling: This discussion, led by Tracy Shuchart, dissects the secondary impacts of rising gas prices and the global dynamics affecting fuel prices. Stability in oil prices becomes a focal point as we examine the intricate interplay of factors like global demand and export policies. Comparisons are drawn between OPEC’s influence on energy markets and the Federal Reserve’s impact on equities.
DC Drama & Markets: Albert Marko led this discussion and he doesn’t shy away from discussing the lack of unity within political parties and the need for stable economic and fiscal policies. The panel raises concerns about wealth accumulation among politicians and calls for a reevaluation of the system.

The discussion also touches on the significance of the Speaker of the House in US politics and potential candidates for the role. Learn why an efficient speaker is vital for the productivity of the legislative body as we wrap up our discussions.

This is the 83rd episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

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Hosted by Tony Nash, this week's panel of experts includes Dale Pinkert , Tony Greer, and Albert Marko. Together, they discussed critical topics that matter to you:

How low will TLT, SPX, and Gold go?

One of the burning questions today is the trajectory of TLT, SPX (S&P 500), and Gold. With the S&P 500 approaching the 4200 mark and bond yields on the rise, the panel discussed the numbers. TLT's descent to levels not seen since 2006/2007 is interesting. Do these trends present unique opportunities or do lingering uncertainty clouds the horizon?

Identifying the Tradeable Bottom

Tony Greer explores the VIX and SPY, examining whether we've reached a point where markets are poised for a rebound. Gain insights into the indicators he watches closely to signal a potential tradeable bottom and what lies ahead for the S&P 500.

Government Shutdown Implications

With the specter of a government shutdown looming, Albert Marko takes the stage to analyze the potential consequences. Governments' actions can have a profound impact on financial markets, and understanding these dynamics is crucial for investors. Discover what he foresees in the event of a government shutdown and how it could affect your investments.

This is the 82nd episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/hZbtqSs8c_I

TLT #SPX #Gold #TradeableBottom #FinancialMarkets #Investment #GovernmentShutdown #EconomicAnalysis #MarketTrends #TonyNash #DalePinkert #TonyGreer #AlbertMarko #TheWeekAhead #AIForecasts #CIMarkets #SPXForecasts #SP500Forecasts #GoldForecasts #Silver #ForexStopHunter #TgMacro #AmLiveMon #TonyNashNerd #TreasuryBond #ETF #VIX #SPY #SP500 #USElection #USElection2024 #Astrology #WhenToTrade #HowToTrade #InvestmentTips #TradingTips #WeekAhead #Twitter #FinTweet

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Welcome to the Week Ahead with Tony Nash https://twitter.com/tonynashnerd. In this episode, we discussed three crucial topics:

Central Banks Unveiled: We’re joined by Arno Venter https://twitter.com/ArnoVenter9 to unravel the mystery behind central banks’ actions and their impact on trading. Is the European Central Bank lagging in the fight against inflation, and what does it mean for the market?
Diesel and Refinery Challenges: Tracy Shuchart https://twitter.com/chigrl enlightens us on the increasing troubles faced by aging refineries in the U.S. With a 53% rise in unplanned mechanical issues, we explore how this contributes to rising gasoline prices. Plus, find out which markets are hit hardest by Russia’s ban on gasoline and diesel exports.
Venezuelan Migrants and U.S. Elections: Albert Marko https://twitter.com/amlivemon discusses the Biden administration’s decision to extend protection to a significant number of Venezuelan migrants in the U.S. We dissect the motives behind this move, whether it’s election-year politics or a strategy to boost oil supply amid Saudi Arabian cuts.

Key themes:

Central banks breaking things
Diesel & refinery alerts
Venezuela migrants & crude supply?

This is the 81st episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/563pr84tea4

WeekAhead #CentralBanks #DieselTroubles #VenezuelanMigrants #EconomicAnalysis #MarketInsights #FinanceDiscussion #TradingTips #USPolitics #OilSupply #TonyNash #ArnoVenter #TracyShuchart #AlbertMarko #ECB #Inflation #GasolinePrices #Refineries #Immigration #ElectionYear #TheWeekAhead #Chigrl #Amlivemon #ArnoVenter9

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Get the transcript from our website: https://completeintel.com/100-oil-equities-peaked-lng-ev-asia

Welcome to "The Week Ahead" with your host, Tony Nash https://twitter.com/tonynashnerd. In this episode, we're joined by a panel of seasoned experts:

🔵 Markets & Mayhem - https://twitter.com/Mayhem4Markets
🔵 Tracy Shuchart - https://twitter.com/chigrl
🔵 Albert Marko - https://twitter.com/amlivemon

Join us as we dig deep into three important topics in markets:

Reacceleration of Inflation & Its Impacts: Mayhem takes the lead in discussing the resurgence of inflation, impacting sectors, and the broader economy. With retail sales surging and job openings dwindling, what lies ahead? Are we missing critical signals from the bond market?
Peak Oil by 2030? LOL 🤣: Tracy Shuchart tackles the eyebrow-raising prediction that fossil fuel demand will peak by 2030, as stated in the recent IEA report. Amidst rising crude consumption, OPEC's response, and soaring energy prices, we scrutinize the report's assumptions and the history of peak oil predictions.
Beneficiaries of US Election Year Largesse: Albert Marko explores the intriguing dynamics of election-year spending. From corn to other sectors, we discuss which industries may benefit from politicians' efforts to woo voters with taxpayer dollars.

Join us for an engaging and insightful discussion that simplifies complex economic topics for everyone to understand.

Key themes:
1. Reacceleration of inflation & its impacts
2. Peak oil by 2030? LOL
3. Election year investments

This is the 80th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/7Bt_zkQw7pk

Inflation #CPI #PeakOil #Investments #SectorRotation #EnergyPrices #RetailSales #CreditRisks #RealEstate #Recession #Bonds #10Year #CreditMarkets #UnemploymentRate #JoblessClaims #ServicesIndustry #YieldCurveInversion #QuantitativeEasing #BalanceSheet #ImportPrices #SupplyDisruption #MonthlyPayments #Scarcity #Loan #IncomeInequality #KShapedRecovery #FederalReserve #TheWeekAhead #TonyNash #Chigrl #Amlivemon #Markets4Mayhem #AlbertMarko #TracyShuchart

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In this episode of The Week Ahead, we're joined by Dr. Anas Alhajji, Michael Belkin, and Tracy Shuchart. Dr. Anas starts by tackling the intriguing question of oil prices. Despite ongoing supply constraints, including OPEC's cuts, Dr. Anas argues that there's currently no compelling case for $100/b oil. He'll walk us through his reasoning.

Next, we turn to Michael Belkin who shares his perspective on the equity market. Michael believes that we've reached the peak of the current cycle, and recent market turbulence seems to support his view. He also provides insights into energy trends and discusses his thoughts on sector rotation, particularly as it pertains to defensive sectors.

Finally, Tracy Shuchart takes the stage to explore LNG and electric vehicles in Asia. Her analysis highlights Asia's growing dependence on LNG as the largest energy-importing region, with projections indicating a potential doubling by 2050. Tracy also gets into how gas may outperform green technologies like wind, solar, and batteries, shedding light on the future of electric vehicles in Asia.

Key themes:
1. No case for $100 oil
2. Equities have peaked
3. LNG & EVs in Asia

This is the 79th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:
Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Anas: https://twitter.com/anasalhajji
Michael: https://twitter.com/BelkinReport
Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/b1U1rdo81Qw

WeekAhead #FinanceDiscussion #OilPrices #EquityMarket #LNGTrends #ElectricVehicles #InvestmentAnalysis #FinancialForecast #MarketInsights #AsiaEnergyTrends #SectorRotation #EconomicOutlook #InvestmentStrategies #FinancialNews #CompleteIntelligence #DrAnasAlhajji #AnasAlhajji #MichaelBelkin #BelkinReport #TracyShuchart #Chigrl #TonyNash #TonyNashNerd #CIMarkets #AIPoweredForecasts #EconomicsData #AI #ML #Nikkei100 #MajorCurrencies #ForexForecasts

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This Week Ahead discusses three key topics: Inflation & Growth, Jobs, and Housing with Adem Tumerkan, Albert Marko, and Leo Nelissen.

First, we explore Inflation & Growth, where Albert shares his thoughts on rising inflation and what it means for the economy. Adem also addresses concerns about GDP and GDI.

Next, Leo takes us through the Jobs market, touching on Challenger job cuts and the US JOLTS data, and what it implies for the Fed's plans.

Finally, Adem talks about Housing, highlighting the ups and downs in the US housing market and the role of the Fed in these changes.

Key themes:
1. Inflation & Growth
2. Jobs
3. Housing

This is the 78th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:
Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon
Leo: https://twitter.com/growth_value_
Adem: https://twitter.com/RadicalAdem

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/hjRewn4PNkU

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In this episode of The Week Ahead, we’re diving into some key topics that are making waves with Deer Point Macro, Tracy Shuchart, and Albert Marko.

First up, Deer Point Macro takes the lead in discussing the mystery behind China’s credit growth. For years, credit growth has fueled China’s economic progress. But recent times have brought some twists and turns. What’s the deal with the current credit growth, and how is it connected to the country’s economic landscape? Tune in as we explore who’s borrowing, who’s extending credit, and how credit markets might just hold the key to fixing China’s real estate scene.

Next, Tracy Shuchart steps in to shed light on Saudi Arabia’s latest move to cut crude supply once again. You might remember we talked about their 1 million barrel cut last month. But now, whispers suggest another extension. What’s the bigger story behind these cuts? Could this signal weaker demand from China? Join us as we discuss whether OPEC is waiting for a sign that China’s demand is on the upswing before easing up on the supply cuts.

Lastly, Albert Marko takes the stage to expose the drama around the upcoming presidential election. Yep, it’s that time again, and the spotlight is on none other than Donald Trump. With the first Republican debate making headlines, everyone’s wondering if it’s truly Trump’s race to lose. But with a hefty 65% of voters viewing him unfavorably, could the Republicans face a major divide? Could they struggle to find a strong contender against Biden? We’ll dissect the major issues that will shape this campaign.

Join us for insights, discussions, and a deep dive into what lies ahead. It’s all happening on this episode of “The Week Ahead.” Don’t miss out!

Key themes:1. China’s credit growth
2. Saudi cuts crude supply again
3. Trump’s to lose?

This is the 77th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Deer Point Macro: https://twitter.com/deerpointmacro
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon
Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl

Watch this episode on Youtube.

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In this episode of The Week Ahead, Tony Nash hosts a discussion with Tony Greer, Albert Marko, and Tracy Shuchart, covering various market events and trends.

Tony Greer explains the concept of a bear steepener, which is causing a necessary rotation in the market, with tech stocks and the AI bubble deflating while natural resources and energy hold their ground.

The panel discusses the current market pullback, viewing it as orderly and temporary. They mention the spike in the VIX, indicating increased fear, but not impending doom. Tony Greer expresses bullishness in the oil market, citing tightening gasoline spreads and the strength of the physical oil market.

Tracy Shuchart agrees with Tony Greer’s assessment of the oil market, emphasizing extreme backwardation and market tightness. Tony Greer expects a continuation of the rotation out of tech stocks and a potential further pullback before finding a comfortable bottom for the S&P 500.

Tony Greer discusses his bullish view on the equity market, expecting a pullback in the tech sector due to bubble sentiment. Albert agrees and believes China will act decisively to address the current situation. They mention China’s potential sale of treasuries and discuss various developments in China, including domestic weakness, deflation, and Evergrande’s bankruptcy filing.

The episode also touches on the potential impact of selling Chinese treasuries and the belief that other countries, including the US, would buy them. They discuss China’s potential sale of overseas assets and domestic political dynamics. The conversation briefly mentions the depreciated Japanese yen and its impact on China’s export competitiveness.

The discussion then shifts to crack spreads and refinery capacity, with Tracy explaining their significance and the underlying issues caused by underinvestment. Tony Greer expresses bullishness on energy due to strong gas demand and potential disruptions in refining capacity. Tracy mentions the potential impact of companies requiring employees to return to the office on gasoline demand. Albert adds that a potential slowdown in China could temporarily bring oil prices down.

Key themes:
1. Bear Steepener
2. China death spiral
3. Your crack(spread) is showing

This is the 76th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Tony Greer: https://twitter.com/TgMacro
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon
Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/j-rtq4xFd6U

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In this episode of The Week Ahead, we have Joseph Wang, Tracy Shuchart, and Ralph Shoellhammer.

Joseph kicks off by talking about inflation, the Fed, and banks. He looks at the recent CPI numbers and asks whether they suggest inflation or not. The conversation revolves around the Fed’s plans and a survey indicating two more interest rate hikes this year. We’re also examining changes in the money supply and whether it’s going back to normal levels.

Tracy gives us an OPEC update. The latest report forecasts oil demand growth for this year and the next. She gets into the impact of OPEC’s supply cuts, particularly Saudi Arabia’s extended cuts, and how they shape the supply situation this quarter.

Lastly, Ralph presents the case for why Europe needs nuclear energy. He shares insights from his report on the topic. Ralph explains the importance of energy density and its link to nuclear power. Safety concerns about nuclear energy and European perspectives on restarting nuclear plants are also discussed. We’re also looking at Germany’s energy mix and recent shifts in energy prices.

Key themes:
1. CPI. Fed. Banks.
2. OPEC Supply Deficit
3. Why Europe Needs Nuclear

This is the 75th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:
Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Joseph: https://twitter.com/fedguy12
Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl
Ralph: https://twitter.com/Raphfel

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/V40wnnhVRjQ

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AI-powered market forecasts with CI Markets: https://completeintel.com/markets

In this Week Ahead episode, Tony Nash, Michael Belkin, Tracy Shuchart, and Albert Marko discuss various investment opportunities and market trends.

Michael emphasizes the importance of sentiment and positioning in the market, predicting a sentiment reversal and a potential liquidation squeeze out of tech stocks and into energy, financials, and China. He also highlights the under-owned nature of the energy sector and suggests investment opportunities in energy stocks, particularly at the point of maximum pessimism.

Michael draws parallels to Sir John Templeton’s advice on buying at the point of maximum pessimism and selling at the point of maximum optimism. The conversation also touches on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions and inflation concerns.

Albert agrees with Michael’s assessment of tech stocks being overvalued and predicts a potential resurgent US dollar, albeit remaining range-bound. He discusses the impact of a stronger dollar on Europe and emerging markets.

Albert also expects a trend of contraction in the money supply for another month or two, followed by an expansion. The discussion further explores potential investment opportunities in China’s large-cap sector, driven by efforts to ignite optimism among Chinese investors, while acknowledging the risk of the Taiwan-China conflict.

The speakers also touch on the potential for a rally in small caps, driven by rotation and the consensus being long on large-cap tech stocks.

Additionally, the episode highlights the impact of the dollar on commodities, particularly crude oil. Albert predicts a range-bound crude oil price between 75 and 85 unless a geopolitical issue arises.

Tracy discusses refinery margins and the strength of crack spreads, noting the strengthening diesel prices and the focus on refining diesel for better margins. She also emphasizes the importance of considering fundamentals in commodity prices and highlights the current high demand for oil, surpassing pre-pandemic levels.

Lastly, the conversation mentions OPEC’s voluntary cuts and their preference for a stable market with a price range of $80 to $90 for Brent crude. The group is seen as cohesive and unlikely to deviate from the cuts. The episode also briefly touches on the impact of Rhine River levels on manufacturing in Northern Europe, noting a recent return to normal levels that will take time to alleviate the backlog of products.

Key themes:
1. Forget AI. Real Equity Opportunities
2. Inflation, Fed & Treasury
3. More Crude Supply Cuts

This is the 74th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Michael: https://twitter.com/BelkinReport
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon
Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/qcW7Tl_lT6Q

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AI-powered markets forecast with CI Markets. 94.7% forecast accuracy, 1,500+ assets (stocks, ETFs, forex, commodities, economics) forecasted every week. Learn more here: https://completeintel.com/markets

Welcome to “The Week Ahead” with Tony Nash, where we discuss the latest market trends and forecasts for the upcoming week with a panel of experts including Blake Morrow, Tracy Shuchart, and Albert Marko.

They begin with Blake by examining the strength of the dollar in relation to the euro, Japanese yen, and the resurgence of commodities. The conversation highlights the Fed’s indication of keeping rates high, the dovish stance of the European Central Bank, and the inflationary environment in Europe and the United States.

The focus then shifts to the Bank of Japan and the potential changes in their yield curve control policy. The speakers discuss the challenges the BOJ faces in moving away from ultra-loose policy, and the impact it may have on the Japanese yen’s depreciation and potential future appreciation.

The episode also covers China’s economy and the challenges it faces in shifting towards a consumer-based model. The speakers mention the potential devaluation of the yuan to boost exports, as well as the appreciation of the Mexican peso and the rally in commodities driven by a weak US dollar and China’s stimulus.

Tracy touches on the energy sector and the United States’ oil demand. The conversation explores the implications of rising energy costs on inflation and the global economy, as well as the slowing growth in margins for S&P 500 companies. They discuss the impact on luxury brands and high-end consumers, as well as the current status of AI in the tech industry, mainly with Albert.

Lastly, the experts discuss the role of large language models in improving search efficiency and potentially replacing low-level analyst jobs. They acknowledge the transformative effect of AI advancements in search capabilities, but caution about the accuracy of information provided by AI, especially in legal contexts.

Key themes:1. Dollah! (& EUR, JPY, CNY)
2. Commodity Resurgence
3. Earnings

This is the 73rd episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:
Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Blake: https://twitter.com/PipCzar
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon
Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/h_n_Vs0DC6M

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Be a more intelligent trader/investor with CI Markets. AI-powered market forecasts. Transparent error rates. Learn more: https://completeintel.com/markets

Get the transcript here: https://completeintel.com/epic-correction-china-destruct-credit-divergence

In this episode of the Week Ahead, Tony Nash moderates a panel discussion with Brent Johnson, Albert Marko, and Michael Green, covering various key themes in the market.

The panelists address the uncertainty surrounding market direction, with predictions varying among experts. A correction is expected in the next 3-6 months, and while a crash is possible, monetary authorities may intervene to counteract it.

Factors such as the Federal Reserve's tightening measures and rising interest rates are anticipated to impact market performance. Government responses to market downturns also play a role in stabilizing and stimulating the economy. The historical trend suggests that assets tend to trend upward in the long term.

Market sentiment is currently high, but positioning is no longer extremely bullish. Earnings are expected to decline in Q3, influenced by slowing demand and decreasing inflation. Large companies like Samsung, Ford, and GM may experience significant earnings declines. The limited ability to raise prices puts pressure on corporations' bottom line, and lower volatility enables consumers to engage in comparison shopping.

The panelists discuss the complexities of inflation calculations and emphasize the influence of perception on market dynamics. Understanding the gap between the Fed's reaction and the market's perception is crucial for informed trading.

China's challenges with inflation, manufacturing, debt loads, and demographics are highlighted. The struggles faced by the Chinese yuan (CNY) and the need for devaluation to enhance competitiveness are explored. The panelists also touched on China's risk of collapsing due to demographics and limited consumption growth.

The discussion shifts to the interplay between the US and China, emphasizing the preference for economic fights over geopolitical or war fights. The strained relations between the two countries and the potential for unintended consequences are examined. The US dollar's role as a tool in geopolitical events and its impact on asset prices and credit quality are discussed.

Chapter 11 bankruptcies in the US have surged despite tightening credit conditions, indicating market fragility. The broken relationship between bankruptcies and credit spreads is analyzed. Mechanisms such as preventing market clearing events and refinancing avoidance are examined. The potential for a severe correction, investment opportunities in defense companies, and the struggle of levered companies are also discussed.

Overall, the panelists provide valuable insights into the evolving market dynamics and potential risks moving forward.

Key themes:
1. Epic crash or correction
2. Chinadestruct.exe
3. Credit divergence

This is the 72nd episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:
Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Brent: https://twitter.com/santiagoaufund
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon
Mike: https://twitter.com/profplum99

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/50gs8Ot80uA

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Be a more intelligent trader/investor with CI Markets. AI-powered market forecasts. Transparent error rates.

Join host Tony Nash and experts Michael Gayed, Adem Tumerkan , and Leo Nelissen in this latest episode of The Week Ahead. They discuss pressing economic topics, providing valuable insights into global markets.

Michael Gayed explains the looming credit event, highlighting widening credit spreads and underperformance of high-yield junk debt. Leo Nelissen shares European market trends and inflation concerns.

The panel discusses deflation and reaccelerating inflation in the US. Michael suggests deflation risks while considering a potential surge in money velocity that could reignite inflation, challenging the Federal Reserve's target. Adapting views based on evolving information is crucial amid uncertainties.

Tony presents a hypothesis on deflation followed by reaccelerating inflation. Michael draws parallels to past deflation pulses, like the 1987 crisis. Adem discusses China's lack of an opening boost and the prevailing deflationary atmosphere. The US banking system's challenges, including declining borrowing and impact on net interest margins (NIMs), are explained. Concerns arise over banks' heavy borrowing and the implications of an inverted yield curve.

China's economic challenges are examined, including its net exporter status and low consumer demand leading to a deflationary environment. The high savings rate, excessive household debt ratios, and declining consumer confidence are discussed. Parallels with Japan's balance sheet recession caution against China's potential trap. Housing sales decline, reserve hoarding, and hidden debts exacerbate challenges, emphasizing the need for debt restructuring and a shift to a household sector focus.

Germany's negative prints and prevailing pessimism are explored as it serves as Europe's manufacturing hub. Long-standing issues, such as deindustrialization and nuclear reactor shutdowns, impact the economy. Declining demand and China's automotive dominance pose challenges. The quality of Chinese exports and outsourcing of chemical production are scrutinized. Germany's anemic consumer base and low-interest rates impact consumer confidence. A comparison between Europe and the US underscores the role of the Federal Reserve and the potential for deflation followed by inflation.

Stay informed about the current economic landscape, potential risks, and the path ahead. Navigate the complexities of the global economy with the insights shared in this episode.

Key themes:

Looming credit event
China weakness
German pessimism

This is the 71st episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:
Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Michael: https://twitter.com/leadlagreport
Adem: https://twitter.com/RadicalAdem
Leo: https://twitter.com/Growth_Value_

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/paBP8zGMQO4

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Be a more intelligent trader/investor with CI Markets. AI-powered market forecasts. Transparent error rates. Learn more: https://completeintel.com/markets
Experts Tracy Shuchart, Chris Berry, and Corey Lavinsky discuss peak oil, battery technology, and biofuels on "The Week Ahead." Tracy presents an IEA study projecting peak oil by 2028, examining the impact of EVs on transportation, particularly China's reliance on coal.

The feasibility of transitioning to EVs is explored, highlighting challenges in US grid infrastructure. Contrasting grid systems in China and India offer growth opportunities with unique hurdles.

Chris emphasizes securing sustainable lithium, cobalt, and graphite supplies for EV batteries, including domestic sourcing and new mining operations. The episode advocates comprehensive approaches considering technology, infrastructure, and secure supply chains for sustainable energy solutions.

The discussion addresses battery metals' impact on supply chains and affordability, focusing on managing lithium price volatility and exploring metal substitution. Regarding lithium sources, Chris highlights abundance in North America but acknowledges refining challenges in China, creating supply chain bottlenecks. Urgency in securing materials is evident through investments by automakers and partnerships.

Environmental impact is discussed, including mining permitting challenges and the carbon footprint of coal usage in nickel production for EV batteries. Alternative solutions like battery recycling and direct lithium extraction are recognized.

Reducing dependence on Chinese refining is explored, proposing upcoming US lithium refineries to diversify the supply chain and minimize environmental impacts. Tony suggests biofuels for carbon-neutral lithium transport.

Corey joins to discuss biofuels and recent EPA mandates, exploring biomass-derived ethanol and biodiesel from fats and recycled oils driven by the Renewable Fuel Standard.

Opportunities in battery metals, biofuels, and oil are examined, emphasizing battery technology advancements and using ethanol as sustainable aviation fuel feedstock. Tracy highlights oil companies' competitive investments due to changing political dynamics, with an increased focus on battery metals.

Key themes:

Peak Oil in 2028
Batteries
Biofuels

This is the 70th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:
Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl
Chris: https://twitter.com/cberry1
Corey: https://twitter.com/biofuelslaw

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/y83TX5ltNdw

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With CI Markets, you can access AI-powered market forecasting for as low as $20 a month. Get 94.7% market forecast accuracy for over 1200 assets across stocks, commodities, currencies, equity indices, and economics.

In the latest episode of "The Week Ahead," Tony Nash hosts David Cervantes, Albert Marko, and Tracy Shuchart, offering valuable insights on recession indicators, China's economic challenges, the natural gas market, and Europe's energy supply problems.

Key themes:1. No recession
2. China’s inertia
3. Natgas bounce

Key takeaways:

Accurate recession call by David Cervantes, emphasizing construction activity and employment data.
Limited impact of commercial real estate in the broader economy.
Tech job losses not supported by data; payroll and claims data refute significant losses.
Trend of individuals turning to DIY solutions for home repairs.
Dismissal of concerns about a credit contraction in the banking sector.
Exploration of potential energy shocks and their impact.
Concerns about China's lack of political and economic movement, despite slight retail sales growth.
Geopolitical considerations and parallels between China's situation and Japan's experience in the 1980s.
Challenges faced by China, including demographics, environmental issues, and water scarcity.
Impact of high energy costs and environmental policies on European industries.

This is the 69th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:

Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
David: https://twitter.com/pinebrookcap
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon
Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/Trd9pE_GNOU

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Be a smarter trader/investor with CI Markets. Learn more: https://completeintel.com/markets

In this episode of "The Week Ahead," Tony Nash hosts guests Doomberg and Albert Marko to discuss two key topics: stagflation in 2024 and the ongoing clash between Binance and the SEC.

Tony highlights the survey results showing significant concern among respondents regarding stagflation. Albert discusses the impact of economic and political policies on persistent inflation and believes that the stagflation argument may be more of a "stagflation light" scenario due to the resilience of the service industry and ongoing market rallies. Tony adds additional points, including the IBD economic optimism index remaining below expectations and signs of cracks in the middle-class economy. They acknowledge that inflationary pressures, rising prices, and elevated interest rates contribute to declining optimism and a challenging economic landscape.

Doomberg provides insights into the counterintuitive inflationary effects of rapid interest rate hikes and discusses potential impacts on oil prices due to changes in the US shale industry and rising housing costs. He suggests that global stagflation in regions like China and Europe could have a spill-over effect on the US economy.

The conversation also covers arguments against deflation, with Albert highlighting wage inflation as a factor preventing deflation. They discuss the challenges of US debt, the impact of inflation on household costs, and potential signs of deflation in the commercial real estate sector.

Shifting to the energy sector, they discuss the potential impact of stagflation on energy, mentioning challenges faced by the oil industry if prices fall below $65. They highlight the tight supply of oil and gasoline, contradicting claims of low demand, and discuss the role of electric vehicles and the divergence between physical and paper markets.

In the cryptocurrency industry segment, Tony and Doomberg address the legal issues surrounding Binance and Coinbase. They discuss accusations of unregistered securities and criminal activities by these platforms. They emphasize the potential consequences of disregarding rules in the cryptocurrency industry and the need for stronger regulatory action.

The discussion concludes with a focus on the recent actions of the SEC in relation to the cryptocurrency market. They discuss the challenges of regulation, the susceptibility of the regulatory apparatus to corruption and political forces, and the erosion of trust in the SEC. They also highlight the need to address pump-and-dump schemes and the potential expansion of investigations into the venture capital space.

Key themes:

Stagflation in 2024
Binance & the SEC

This is the 68th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:

Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon
Doomberg: https://twitter.com/DoombergT

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/LExqD5pkSUI

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Be a smarter trader and investor with CI Markets. Learn more: https://completeintel.com/marketsIn the latest episode of The Week Ahead, Tony Nash leads an insightful discussion with industry experts Tracy Shuchart, Mayhem, and Albert Marko. The episode covers a wide range of topics, providing valuable insights into the current state of the global economy and geopolitical landscape.

One of the key themes explored in the episode is the low crude prices and the upcoming OPEC meeting. Tracy Shuchart analyzes the factors contributing to the downward pressure on crude prices, despite expectations of a seasonal increase. She highlights recession fears and limited market participation as major factors hampering the rise in prices. The OPEC meeting, scheduled for June 4th, becomes a focal point of discussion, particularly in light of Russian overproduction. The experts discuss the potential outcomes of the meeting, including the possibility of production cuts and their impact on countries like India that heavily rely on affordable Russian crude.

Mayhem delves into the issue of U.S. Treasury debt issuance and its implications for market liquidity and financial conditions. The recent passage of the debt ceiling prompts an exploration of the upcoming $1.2 trillion of U.S. Treasury issuance. Mayhem provides insights into the expected timing of the issuance and its potential impact on the markets. The experts also touch upon the decline in investor home purchases, questioning whether the rise in interest rates is the sole cause or if other factors are at play. They contemplate the extent of this trend and its potential future implications.

Albert Marko leads the discussion on the changing dynamics of the Middle East and the implications for the United States. The UAE’s withdrawal from a maritime agreement with the U.S. serves as a catalyst for analyzing the broader challenges in the region. Tensions with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey, coupled with evolving U.S. policies, shape the geopolitical landscape. The experts emphasize the need for the U.S. to build strong relationships with important countries like Turkey and Indonesia without excluding other global powers. They acknowledge the complexities of navigating the Middle East and stress the importance of long-term efforts in rebuilding relationships.

As the episode concludes, the participants share their expectations for the week ahead. They look ahead to the OPEC meeting and its potential outcomes, considering the impact on global energy markets. Additionally, they discuss the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and the decision on interest rates, offering diverse perspectives on whether a rate hike is imminent or if the Fed will adopt a more dovish approach.

Key themes:

Why is crude so low? (and OPEC)
UST Tsunami
Middle East (UAE)

This is the 67th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon
Mayhem: https://twitter.com/Mayhem4Markets

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/O8ot6yHQgqg

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In this episode of the Week Ahead, Tony Nash hosts a panel discussion with Albert Marko and Adem Tumerkan, covering the economics of electric vehicles (EVs), trading the debt ceiling, and China’s post-Covid opening.

Albert delves into the economics of EVs, highlighting Ford’s significant losses of $2.1 billion in their EV unit for FY 2022 and an additional $722 million loss in Q1 2023. Tony references insights from Robert Bryce, revealing that Ford incurs a hefty loss of $66,000 on each EV produced. The panel discusses the EV drive on Capitol Hill and among car manufacturers, linking it to influential donors invested in ESG and carbon credits. Tony raises questions about companies’ motives, while Adem expresses concerns about the saturated EV market, Ford’s losses, and Tesla’s price cuts. They explore strategies such as spinning off EV units and meeting emissions standards with carbon credits.

Shifting the focus to trading the debt ceiling, Tony highlights a sense of optimism and hope despite previous negative news. Reuters suggests a debt ceiling rally is on the horizon. The panel anticipates an agreement unlikely before mid-June and assures that a default is not expected. They interpret Janet Yellen’s varying statements as a strategy to create market turmoil and pressure Republicans for a better debt ceiling deal. The influx of California’s income taxes in mid-June may affect the Republicans’ stance. The panel predicts market volatility and suggests a potential stimulus package later in the year to appease voters during the election season. Adem analyzes the impact of the debt ceiling on bank reserves and liquidity, predicting potential fragility in the system. He recommends focusing on the longer end of the yield curve and discusses the possibility of a credit crunch and its consequences.

Adem sheds light on China’s disappointing post-Covid opening, highlighting structural issues, high debt levels, defaults on infrastructure projects, and a weak consumer base. Tony emphasizes Adem’s recent tweets revealing the reasons behind China’s weak reopening. Adam elaborates on China’s weak reopening, explaining the negative impact of its current account surplus on consumer demand. Tony contrasts Asian economies with high savings due to historical volatility to credit in the West, which is based on stability. Adem highlights the Chinese government’s repression of consumption, leading individuals to save, which funds state-owned enterprises and infrastructure projects.

Looking ahead, Albert focuses on the debt ceiling while also mentioning the importance of monitoring oil prices and the potential for a secondary inflation event. Adam emphasizes the significance of China’s retail sales and current account data, as well as the crowded trades in the tech and regional bank sectors. He expresses contrarian views on shorting tech and recommends investing in longer-term bonds.

Key themes:
1. Economics of EVs
2. How to trade the Debt Ceiling
3. Anemic China

This is the 66th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:
Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon
Adem: https://twitter.com/RadicalAdem

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/49Eg5GV8io0

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In this episode of “The Week Ahead,” our guests discuss key themes affecting the markets. Tracy Shuchart, Anne-Marie Baiynd, and Amelia Bourdeau share their insights on oil equities, diamonds and gold, and tactics for navigating choppy markets.

Tracy starts the discussion by noting the decline in crude oil prices and the impact on oil equities. She expects crude prices to continue to fall, with institutions playing a crucial role in the market. Tracy highlights that investors should also keep an eye on geopolitical factors that could affect the oil market.

Amelia talks about the diamond market and her work at Diamond Standard. She explains that the diamond market is different from other commodities due to its unique characteristics, such as limited supply and high demand. Amelia also discusses the recent sell-off of gold by Palantir and whether it’s an indicator of things to come. She notes that while there may be short-term fluctuations, gold is a good hedge against uncertainty and inflation in the long run.

Anne-Marie shares her tactics for navigating choppy markets, pointing out that it’s essential to focus on the charts and technical indicators. She suggests looking at key levels and using them as a guide for trading decisions. Anne-Marie emphasizes the importance of risk management and encourages investors to have a plan for both bullish and bearish scenarios.

In conclusion, the panelists agree that uncertainty and volatility are part of the market, and investors should be prepared for them. They suggest having a long-term perspective, keeping an eye on geopolitical events, and using technical analysis to navigate choppy markets.

Key themes:1. What’s ahead for oil equities?
2. Diamonds & gold!
3. Choppy markets

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:
Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl
Anne-Marie: https://twitter.com/AnneMarieTrades
Amelia: https://twitter.com/AmeliaBourdeau

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/xePyR0f4LW0

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In this Week Ahead, Tony Nash is joined by Deer Point Macro, Fabian Wintersberger, and Albert Marko. The discussion focuses on US banks and the credit crunch, ECB & Europe’s banks, and the debt ceiling.

Deer talks about the recent market cap decline in US regional banks and highlights how the slow movement of bank deposit rates are causing depositors to push money into mutual funds. He also shares insights on how banks are provisioning for losses and discusses the potential impact on credit availability.

Fabian provides insights into the ECB’s decision to raise by 25bps and Madame Lagarde’s cautious stance. He also talks about the recent drama in the US over regional banks and expresses concern about the possibility of more wreckage with European banks.

Albert delves into the topic of the debt ceiling, which has recently been making headlines. He talks about whether most Americans care about it, whether US government employees go without pay, and the “full faith and credit of the US government” concept. He also explains why markets care about the debt ceiling and discusses how he expects the situation to play out.

Overall, the Week Ahead offers a thought-provoking discussion on some of the most pressing topics of the week. Tune in to get expert insights from our panelists.

Key themes:
1. US Banks. Credit crunch?
2. ECB & Europe’s banks
3. Debt ceiling

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Deer: https://twitter.com/deerpointmacro
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon
Fabian: https://twitter.com/f_wintersberger

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/HV7y49FTfVU

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This Week Ahead is joined by Bob Elliott, CIO at Unlimited Funds, Sam Rines from Corbu, and Josh Young from Bison Interests. In this episode, we delve into three crucial themes – Higher for Longer (H4L), Earnings, and Refining Margins – with a focus on stocks like $FRB, $META, $MSFT, $AMZN, $KMB, $XOM, $NOV, and $VLO.

Bob Elliott kicks off the discussion on H4L, sharing his insights on the current stocks versus bonds situation under this environment. Despite little progress from the Fed, he notes that equities signal a different outcome from bonds, which indicates an impending recession.

The panel then engages in a deep dive, discussing the possibility of the Fed relenting on inflation, the duration of the H4L phenomenon, and the role of the labor market in shaping its trajectory.

Sam Rines then shifts the focus to Earnings, highlighting key trends in the First Republic and Kimberly Clark stocks, including a decline in Price Over Volume. The panel also touches on the tech industry, analyzing its current position and outlook.

Finally, Josh Young explores the intriguing topic of Refining Margins, with a particular focus on the US and China dynamics that have contributed to Valero’s strong earnings report. Josh examines the significant drop in refining margins in recent months, assessing how the trend fits into the historical context of this industry.

Key themes:1. Higher for Longer (H4L)
2. Earnings
3. Refining margins down, but strong demand

This is the 63rd episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Bob: https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited
Sam: https://twitter.com/SamuelRines
Josh: https://twitter.com/Josh_Young_1

Watch this podcast on Youtube: https://youtu.be/xhEAGe4LfNU

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In the latest edition of “Week Ahead”, Tony Nash is joined by Daniel Lacalle, Chief Economist at Tressis, Albert Marko, and Ralph Schoellhammer from Webster University in Vienna to discuss the key themes in the market. The trio begins with a discussion on market optimism, macro earnings, and money growth, and how the market participants are overly optimistic despite interest rate rises, bank failures, and persistent inflation. Lacalle highlights the factors that are driving this optimism and provides insights into how investors can navigate the current market conditions.

Moving on, the discussion shifts to the Fed’s stance on interest rates. Albert Marko shares his view that the Fed would likely stay strong given the inflation environment and predicts two more rate hikes. He explains why he expects two more hikes and what it means for the “higher for longer” duration. The conversation provides a comprehensive analysis of the current state of the market and offers practical insights into how investors can stay ahead of the curve.

Finally, Ralph Schoellhammer takes the floor to discuss the nuclear power industry’s future, specifically the differences in approach between Germany and Japan, and other countries. The discussion offers a unique perspective on the challenges facing the industry and the potential solutions that could be implemented.

As the discussion concludes, the participants share their expectations for the week ahead. The conversation offers a glimpse into the market’s future and provides valuable insights for investors looking to stay ahead of the curve. Overall, “Week Ahead” is an insightful and thought-provoking discussion that covers a wide range of topics and provides practical insights for investors.

Key themes:

Market optimism: macro, earnings, & money growth
2 more Fed hikes?
Nuclear: Germany vs Japan (& others)

This is the 62nd episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Daniel: https://twitter.com/dlacalle_IA
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon
Ralph: https://twitter.com/Raphfel

You can watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/hDiMKD7EaQw

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In this episode, we’re joined by experts Dan McNamara, Tracy Shuchart, and Mackinley Ross to discuss three key themes: CRE vs WFH, Asian crude demand, and inflation vs earnings.

Dan kicks off the discussion with the latest news of Salesforce leaving their headquarters in San Francisco, the largest employer in the city, and giving up 1 million square feet of office space. Other high-profile CRE issues in the city include two major banks – Union Bank and Wells Fargo – discounting their building sales by 52% and 67%, respectively. The cause seems to be Work From Home (WFH) and rising rates, with empty offices and rising rates forcing ZIRP-era prices down. Dan explores the drivers and impacts of this trend, how it could accelerate, and what other markets it could hit. He also examines the potential impact on local tax revenues and whether taxes on CRE are low compared to other revenue sources.

Moving on to Asian crude demand, Tracy highlights the recent rally in crude prices and the focus on Asian crude demand. Refineries in the region are aggressively buying for June deliveries, and China’s imports are up. She delves into what’s driving this demand and whether Asian economies are really coming back that quickly.

Finally, Mac talks about inflation vs earnings, with the recent headline CPI coming down slightly but core CPI going up. The Fed has said several times they watch core, not headline, so we don’t seem to have the makings of a Fed pause or a pivot yet. With positive bank earnings, does this reinforce the case for a 25 bps rise in May, and will we see talk of a June rise too?

Key themes:
1. CRE vs WFH
2. Asian crude demand
3. Inflation vs earnings

This is the 61st episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:
Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Dan: https://twitter.com/danjmcnamara
Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/OFNJ9knoIiM

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In the latest Week Ahead episode, three experts – Todd Gentzel, Chris Balding, and Sam Rines – discuss the impact of AI on the job market and the enterprise.

The conversation delves into the macro environment and the rise of AI, with Sam Rines framing the discussion by noting the fast adoption of AI tools like ChatGPT and Midjourney, which are taking out low and mid-level writing, creative, and analyst tasks. This is a threat at a scale not seen before as this generation of AI is targeting professional, corporate, and office jobs.

Todd Gentzel, who has consulted and led strategy for some of the world’s largest companies, discusses the current state of AI in the enterprise. He notes that many AI projects are just pet projects to tick a box and the “AI” portion of these projects is extremely limited. However, he believes that AI has the potential to change the enterprise significantly and identifies the factors holding the enterprise back from adopting useful AI.

Chris Balding, the founder of an AI-NLP firm, discusses whether AI will steal jobs. He notes that starting his firm has changed his view of the application of AI and its potential to take on whole job functions. The conversation covers the impact of AI on labor and capital, the potential for AI to be deployed to take on individual functions, and whether AI can only be used to augment job functions or take on whole job functions.

The discussion raises important questions about the impact of AI on the job market and the enterprise, and how it will change the way we work. While the experts have different perspectives on the potential of AI, they all agree that it will have a significant impact on the economy, the job market, and society as a whole.

Key themes:
1. Is the macro environment to blame for the rise of AI?
2. How will AI change the enterprise?
3. Will AI steal your job?

This is the 60th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead panel on TwitterTony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Sam: https://twitter.com/SamuelRines
Todd: https://twitter.com/ToddGentzel
Chris: https://twitter.com/BaldingsWorld

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/CN3m4s1M1I0

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In the latest “Week Ahead” discussion, three experts delve into three crucial topics: synchronized global risks, the spending patterns of the US consumer, and the copper gap in the energy transition.

Keith Dicker of IceCap Asset Management and Loonie Hour Podcast takes the lead on synchronized global risks, highlighting how a banking crisis in Silicon Valley has led to crises at other regional banks in the US and abroad. He also discusses the potential risks of the Hong Kong dollar breaking its peg and its impact on the Canadian dollar.

Albert Marko shares his insights on the spending patterns of US consumers, presenting surprising findings on mainstream companies like Carnival Cruise Lines and McCormick, which have been able to raise prices despite the economic recession. These findings challenge the notion of the Federal Reserve’s ability to pivot or pause.

Tracy Shuchart from Hilltower Resource Advisors warns about the copper gap in the energy transition, which is emerging just as the energy transition gains speed. She provides insights into what this means for copper prices in 2023 and how it will impact the energy transition.

The episode concludes with the experts’ predictions for the week ahead.

Key themes:
1. Synchronized global risks
2. The US consumer isn’t slowing down
3. Copper gap & energy transition

This is the 59th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:
Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Keith: https://twitter.com/IceCapGlobal
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon
Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/nUw_0IQVMVc

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In the latest episode of The Week Ahead, Tony Nash is joined by Michael Nicoletos, Tracy Shuchart, and Albert Marko. The panel first explores Russia’s recent announcement that it would use CNY for trade settlement outside of the US and Europe. Michael Nicoletos explains that this move could be viable, but it would depend on whether all countries would accept the terms of trade.

Albert Marko believes that the recent rate hike was the right thing to do and predicted that the Fed would raise rates twice more. He also criticizes the lack of depth in the economics department of some central banks, citing examples from the RBNZ and the ECB.

The panel also analyzes the energy market and predicted when we might see an uptrend. Tracy Shuchart updates the chart and pointed out that crude seemed to break the down cycle a bit, leading to a good week for the commodity. The team answers a viewer’s question about the possibility of energy prices remaining low for a long time and offered their perspectives on the matter.

Finally, the panel discusses what they expected for the Week Ahead. Michael Nicoletos predicts that the energy market would remain volatile, and Tracy Shuchart believes that the focus would be on the stock market, particularly the Nasdaq. Albert Marko highlights the importance of watching the inflation data and suggests that investors should keep an eye on the bond market.

Key themes:
1. Russia $CNY. Why?
2. Where does the Fed (and other central banks) go from here?
3. When will we see an uptrend in energy?

This is the 58th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:
Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Michael: https://twitter.com/mnicoletos
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon
Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/0827BcC_Kwc

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In this episode of “Week Ahead,” Tony Nash is joined by Hugh Hendry, Tracy Shuchart, and Albert Marko to discuss the latest economic and geopolitical developments shaping the world today. The experts delve into key themes, including banking systemic risk vs inflation, higher rates and commodity cargoes, and China’s evolving foreign policy.

Hugh Hendry expresses his concerns regarding the potential impact of the Basel III Framework on the banking system, and whether it will exacerbate inflation. The experts also discuss Credit Suisse and UBS’s current situation and the potential moral hazards that might arise from their financial woes. The conversation also touches on Central Banks’ optimism in spite of the looming risks.

Tracy Shuchart highlights how rising rates are affecting the prices of commodity cargoes. The discussion digs into the possible impact of falling cargo rates on the supply and pricing of commodities. Meanwhile, the experts anticipate the upcoming CPI report that could inform the Fed’s expected raise of another 25bps at this month’s meeting. They also discuss the ECB’s recent 50bps raise to offset European inflation.

Albert Marko leads a discussion about China’s shift from an aggressive “wolf warrior” foreign policy to one of a peace negotiator. The experts explore the motivations behind China’s recent diplomatic efforts to negotiate a Saudi-Iran agreement and facilitate a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement. They also discuss the United States’ position and level of involvement in these discussions.

Overall, the discussion provides insightful perspectives on the latest economic and geopolitical trends that could shape the week ahead. The experts highlight the importance of assessing the intersection of central banks, commodity prices, and global diplomacy. The insights shared in this episode could benefit investors, policymakers, and anyone interested in understanding the current economic and geopolitical landscape.

Key themes:
1. Banking systemic risk vs inflation
2. Higher rates & commodity cargoes
3. China: From wolf warrior to peace negotiator?

This is the 57th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:
Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Hugh: https://twitter.com/hendry_hugh
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon
Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/oOi1xp-DBcM

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In this episode of The Week Ahead, the hosts discuss three key themes: Silicon Valley Bankruptcy, the Federal Reserve’s Quantitative Tightening (QT) and systemic risks, and America’s energy policy.

The discussion begins with a focus on Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB), which had a major issue raising capital and faced a bank run on Thursday. On Friday, the California bank regulator shut the bank down. SIVB had $175 billion in deposits, $151 billion of which were uninsured. One of the discussions surrounding the SIVB collapse is how venture capitalists have been affected.

The hosts then move on to discuss the Federal Reserve’s QT and systemic risks. They note that the US has been experiencing strong data and inflation, and Fed Chairman Powell hinted at a 50 basis point increase this month. The hosts discuss whether the Fed will accelerate QT in this environment, what that could look like, and what risks it would pose to the US financial system.

The third theme discussed is America’s energy policy. Host Tracy Shuchart mentions a speech given by US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, which didn’t seem to give her more confidence in Granholm’s competence as an energy secretary. The discussion touches on the problems with America’s energy policy and how it affects the country’s overall economic outlook.

Finally, the hosts share their expectations for the week ahead.

Overall, this episode offers a comprehensive analysis of current events and trends in finance and policy, with a particular focus on the implications of SIVB’s bankruptcy and the Federal Reserve’s actions. The hosts provide insightful commentary and thought-provoking questions that will be of interest to anyone following these issues.

Key themes:1. Silicon Valley Bank(ruptcy)
2. Fed’s QT & systemic risks
3. America’s feckless energy policy

This is the 56th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:
Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon
Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/Txi-Hkr7n7E

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In this episode of “The Week Ahead,” host Tony Nash is joined by Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, and Tracy Shuchart, a commodities trader at Hilltower Resource Advisors, to discuss the most pressing economic themes for the upcoming week.

One of the key topics of discussion is the Federal Reserve’s “Q2 Danger Zone,” which Brent believes could be a potentially scary time for the economy. He notes that we are still less than a year away from the first rate hike, and it often takes 12-18 months for rate hikes to show up in the economy. By the summer of 2022, we will be right in the heart of that time period, coinciding with YoY inflation numbers that should come down due to the crazy comparisons from the previous year. Brent warns that even if inflation remains somewhat sticky, we could see a bunch of disinflationary prints at the same time, which will make it challenging for the Fed. Moreover, by that time, Owner Equivalent Rents are expected to fall, adding to the Fed’s challenges.

Tracy then delves into the topic of oil production and cuts, specifically Russia’s decision to cut 500k barrels. She explains what this means for the market, how it could impact crude prices, and who will be hurt the most – Asia or the West. Tracy also raises an interesting point about Russia’s decision to smuggle oil through Albania despite the cuts, leaving us with questions about their motivations.

Finally, the discussion turns to commercial and industrial loan growth, which saw a sharp rise after rate hikes started. Tracy explores why this is happening, and what it means for the economy. She believes that companies are taking out loans to fund capital expenditures, which is good news for the economy as it indicates that businesses are investing in themselves and their future growth.

Key themes:
1. The Fed’s Q2 Danger Zone
2. Capex & C&I Loan Growth
3. 500k fewer Russian barrels

This is the 55th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:
Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Brent: https://twitter.com/SantiagoAuFund
Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/6I8vJ0ghm4g

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Mike started the discussion by talking about the symposium on the Great Power Competition with China and the US Dollar’s primacy in an era of economic warfare. He emphasized that the US dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency is at risk due to the rise of other currencies such as the Chinese Yuan. Mike further elaborated on the factors that could potentially kill the US dollar, such as a shift towards a new reserve currency or the decline of the US economy.

Moving on to the next topic, Albert spoke about the DXY, which he expects to reach 112 in the near future. He explained that this is due to the strengthening of the US economy, coupled with rising interest rates and the anticipation of the Fed’s monetary tightening. However, he also cautioned that the markets are likely to experience turbulence due to the uncertainties surrounding the pandemic and the geopolitical risks.

Ralph then focused on the impact of inflation on Europe, particularly in Austria where he resides. He pointed out that inflation in Europe has been rising at an alarming rate, with Austria’s inflation rate being 0.9% m/m and 11.2% on year. Ralph also tweeted about the rapid increase in bankruptcies, and how this could lead to a domino effect on the European economy. He predicted that the European Central Bank’s (ECB) decision to tighten monetary policy would lead to further economic challenges, especially in Q2 of this year.

Key themes:
1. What kills the US dollar?
2. DXY to 112? Turbulence Incoming
3. Inflation’s hold on Europe

This is the 54th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:
Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Michael: https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon
Ralph: https://twitter.com/Raphfel

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/siBqeMZ7sOs

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In this episode of the Week Ahead, Tony Nash is joined by Mike Green, Tracy Shuchart, and Sam Rines to discuss key themes including Productivity, Inflation & Secular Stagnation, Fed Outlook, and German Gas Issues.

Mike begins the discussion on Productivity, Inflation & Secular Stagnation by referring to his newsletter "ProcrastiNation" and explains the concept of Total Factor Productivity growing by constant amounts instead of constant rates, which may lead to secular stagnation. The team also reviews a chart from Natixis, which shows a bump in per capita productivity, followed by a sharp fall. The team discusses whether this productivity rise/fall is due to the boost of government spending and the blurry visibility of hours worked during the pandemic. The discussion also touches on how this impacts inflation and what measures could be taken to fight it.

Moving on to the Fed Outlook, Sam notes that the Fed isn't letting up on inflation fighting and has been working on a delicate trajectory to achieve it. Sam talks about what he's currently looking at and what's changed since he first spotted this in Q2 of last year.

Tracy leads the discussion on German Gas Issues, highlighting that Natgas in Germany has been a significant topic since Russia invaded Ukraine. Tracy refers to a chart that shows how industry in Germany started curbing production during the first spike of TTF nat gas. The team also notes that capacity utilization has not come back at all, not just in Germany, but also in the Euro area as a whole.

Key themes:
1. Productivity, Inflation & Secular Stagnation
2. Fed Outlook: What’s changed?
3. German Gas Issues

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:
Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Mike: https://twitter.com/profplum99
Sam: https://twitter.com/SamuelRines
Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/4v_CJkTGuc4

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The Week Ahead with Tony Nash brings together experts Tony Greer, Albert Marko, and Tracy Shuchart to discuss the key themes affecting the markets. In this episode, the focus is on Inflation 2.0, Market Chaos, and Russian Supply Caps.

Albert Marko leads the discussion on Inflation 2.0, and explains his view that inflation will re-accelerate this year. He talks about how various factors such as the Federal Reserve, a potential recession or slowdown, and war could impact his thesis. He also mentions the upward revision of December Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the upcoming release of the January CPI.

Tony Greer then takes the lead on Market Chaos and explains why he is bullish on metals and oil. He discusses his views on copper and explains his outlook on crude oil, which he tweeted about in January.

Tracy Shuchart focuses on Energy and the Russian supply caps. She talks about Russia’s announcement to cut production to 500k barrels per day and what this could mean for crude quotas and price caps. She also discusses the impact on natural gas.

Finally, the experts provide their expectations for the Week Ahead.

Key themes
1. Inflation 2.0
2. Market Chaos: Bullish Metals & Oil
3. Russian Supply Caps

This is the 52nd episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:
Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon
Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl
Tony Greer: https://twitter.com/TgMacro

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/QEP_uE3kxSM

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In this video, our first-time guest Jim Iuorio leads the discussion on the topic of whether markets are too good for the Fed. With speculation around CPI, layoffs, and interest rates, the question of the Fed's direction and potential pivots later in the year is raised.

Jim also delves into the recent success of the metals market and offers insight into where the market may go in the future. He also offers his thoughts on the potential impact on equities if the S&P hits his target of 4060.

Next, Tracy takes the lead in discussing cracks and Freeport. She explains the significance of rising crack spreads and its impact on the market. She also shares her insights on the recent opening of the Freeport facility and its effect on US natural gas prices.

Albert then discusses the risks associated with Ukraine's new hardware. He addresses the classification of "direct involvement" and its potential impact on European countries. He also offers insight into what actions Russia may take to further complicate the situation and the potential impact on markets such as wheat.

Finally, the team gives their expectations for the upcoming Fed meeting and what to look for in the week ahead.

This is the 51st episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:
Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Jim: https://twitter.com/jimiuorio
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon
Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/8A0lQvrp0Ng

Get the transcript on our website: https://www.completeintel.com/weekahead/fed-markets-cracks-freeport-ukraine

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This Week Ahead episode discusses the current state of the Chinese economy and its potential trajectory in the future, with experts Leland Miller, Mary Kissel, and Samuel Rines. In this episode, the panel discusses China's gradual reopening, China's place in the world, and the Chinese Communist Party's economy.

Leland Miller, who leads China Beige Book, talks about China's Great(ish) Re-opening. He notes that the reopening has been a gradual process and not as quick as some had claimed it would be. He raises the question of when we will see China really break out, whether it will be after the Lunar New Year/Spring Festival or later. He also discussed what activity we should be watching to know that China is really back to normal, such as investment, hiring, etc. He concludes by commenting on what a "normal" Chinese economy will look like in 2024 and beyond.

Mary Kissel, from Stephens, leads a discussion on China's place in the world. She notes that with confirmation that China's population has already peaked, there seems to be a subtle reassessment of the "China opportunity." She points out that there is a very different view of China from the European perspective vs the US perspective. Europe seems to be growing closer to China while the US seems to be pulling back. She also shares how US-China relations will change as China normalizes and whether US companies are really moving out of China. She also discusses the push-and-pull factors that influence these decisions and if US companies will be complacent and stop moving to manufacture elsewhere after the slower opening in China.

Samuel Rines, from Corbu, leads a discussion on The Party's economy. He notes that under Xi’s leadership, we've seen the Chinese Communist Party return to a more involved role across Chinese society. He shares if the government will be more assertive toward businesses - both domestic and foreign businesses - in a post-Covid world and if that could impact how foreign investors view investments in China. He also mentions recent central government intervention in several sectors, most notably tech and real estate, and asks how involved the government will be in the repair of the real estate sector and protecting the tech sector. He also shares that if given renewed government involvement as well as factors like population and economic slowdown, we expect these sectors to return to rapid growth anytime soon.

Finally, the panel members share what they are thinking about China that they're not sure most people see.

Key themes:
1. China’s Great(ish) Re-opening
2. China’s place in the world
3. The Party’s economy

This is the 50th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:
Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Leland: https://twitter.com/ChinaBeigeBook
Mary: https://twitter.com/marykissel
Sam: https://twitter.com/SamuelRines

Watch this on Youtube: https://youtu.be/1rP6mlxU4AE

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In this episode, Ross Kennedy of Fortis Analysis, Ralph Schoellhammer of Webster Vienna Private University and Albert Marko joined Tony to discuss three main themes: supply chains in 2023, the existence of China in 10 years and Germany's dependence on Russian gas.

Ross Kennedy led the discussion on supply chains in 2023, and he explained that although supply chain issues have appeared to normalize over the last 4 months, with trans-Pacific shipping rates falling to levels at the start of the Covid pandemic, there are still things to watch out for in the upcoming year.

Albert Marko led the discussion on the prediction that China will not exist in 10 years. This claim was made by Peter Zeihan, a geopolitical analyst, during his appearance on Joe Rogan's podcast. He went on to say that some of Zeihan's predictions sound impressive, but he and Ross Kennedy both have doubts about the validity of this claim.

Tony pointed out that similar predictions were made by George Friedman in his book "The Next 100 Years" (2009), where he said that China would split into 5 countries. However, both Albert and Ross argue that China's economy, military, and political power are too strong for this to happen in the near future. They also highlighted the fact that China's growth and development have been hindered by the pandemic, but the country has managed to recover quickly and is still a major player in the global economy.

Ralph Schoellhammer led the discussion on Germany's ongoing dependence on Russian gas. He wrote about how the green push in Germany has led to a decrease in the country's dependence on Russian gas, but there are other considerations. He explained that the Russia-Ukraine War had a major impact on Germany's dependence on Russian gas and that when the war stops, it is likely that Germany will welcome Russian gas again. He also highlighted the fact that Germany's dependence on Russian gas is not just a matter of energy security, but also a matter of economic and political considerations.

Key themes:
1. Supply Chains in 2023
2. Will China exist in 10 years?
3. Germany can’t quit Russian gas

This is the 49th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:

Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Ross: https://twitter.com/maphumanintent
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon
Ralph: https://twitter.com/Raphfel

Watch on Youtube: https://youtu.be/Ha3w9PMRzKw

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Natgas is down 63% from its high in late August. The average price before Q2 ’21 was $2-3, so we only have 7% more to fall to below $3. While we saw Natgas rise – along with every other commodity – in 2021, prices had begun to fall until Russia invaded Ukraine.

Russia and Ukraine are still at war, but we have this issue with the restart of the LNG terminal. Tracy Shuchart tells us what’s behind the fall in Natgas prices and what she’d look for before expecting prices to stop falling.

The Fed pivot has been wishful thinking for quite a while and Sam Rines has been repeating this for months or so. As the Fed’s minutes were released last week, Sam pointed out that NO MEMBER saw the need for a rate rise in 2023. He stated many times that the Fed has been very clear about its indicators. We see this so often that it seems obvious. Why is this so difficult for some people to see? Sam Rines explains that in this episode.

This week, Sam also made the point that the Fed is maybe “stuck in the middle”. Literally, employment in the middle of the US could be a factor that keeps the Fed from slowing down. Sam explains why the middle is so important.

We’ve seen a lot of chatter in research notes, op-eds, and tweets over the last week stating that the future is a multipolar world. This seems largely based on a call for the decline of the USD and the rise of the petroyuan, etc. Albert Marko walks us through this.

Key themes:

Natgas sub $3?
The Fed Pivot is Dead
Multipolar, Post-USD World

This is the 48th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:

Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl
Sam: https://twitter.com/SamuelRines
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon

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Harris Kupperman, popularly known as "Kuppy" on Twitter, is pretty bullish on Oil. We had a show full of oil bulls last week, which you can watch here: https://youtu.be/m4riWW-tkIU What does he see that would bring crude to $300? He helps us understand the thesis around that.

Also, Kuppy had been bullish on housing. He goes a little bit into what he's thinking about the market right now.

Kuroda changed policy a bit and markets reacted with a stronger yen. Is this a real policy change or is he just preparing markets for a new BOJ chair in April? Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital explains Japan's "normalization." Also, what does Brent see that everyone else is missing on the Dollar right now?

Tracy posted a really interesting chart about the crash in household savings in the US. This is following a couple of years with MASSIVE government handouts to keep people and companies solvent through Covid. How this will affect oil demand, considering that travel has been up with retail sales down? How elastic or inelastic is oil demand? Tracy shares her thoughts on this.

Key themes
1. $300 crude & (still?) bullish housing
2. Japan's “normalization”
3. Recession & oil demand elasticity

This is the 47th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:

Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Kuppy: https://twitter.com/hkuppy
Brent: https://twitter.com/SantiagoAuFund
Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/-n7xWVVcXyc

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Gasoline prices have continued to decline in the US. Big Fed meeting. 50bps. JPow insists the terminal rate is 5.5. Markets seem to want a rosier picture. How do you trade this? Bob Iaccion shares his expertise.

We’ve seen some weakness in crude prices, of course, and consumers are seeing a bit of a break with energy prices. Jay Powell doesn’t see inflation abating soon – he seems to believe it’ll be persistent. Part of that must be with energy. Our Complete Intelligence US headline CPI forecast looks at a reacceleration in early Q2. Is that around the time Josh expects energy prices to re-accelerate or does he have a different expectation – and why?

Tracy posted a really interesting chart recently. We’ve been talking about the SPR releases for a long time, but this chart is super stark. She walks us through what this means.

Key themes
1. Widow-maker trading
2. Energy & Inflation
3. WTI & SPR

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:
Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Bob: https://twitter.com/Bob_Iaccino
Josh: https://twitter.com/Josh_Young_1
Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl

Time Stamp:
0:00 Start
1:15 Key themes for this Week Ahead episode
1:40 Why do markets continue to want to see a rosier picture?
6:48 ES rise through the first quarter? Is it sentiment?
8:09 What’s the difference between hard and soft data?
12:50 Will the soft data pull the hard data down?
16:00 Energy prices to accelerate quickly?
19:55 Passenger flights into China and how that would impact crude?
24:51 China’s SPR
30:48 Is there anything we're missing on energy?
37:00 What to expect in the next 2 weeks, before 2022 ends?

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/m4riWW-tkIU

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This Week Ahead is a special episode because it was recorded live, with guests Albert Marko, Sam Rines, and Mike Smith, together with host Tony Nash in a face-to-face conversation. It’s also the first time that we had a Twitter Spaces, joined by a few people and taking their questions.

Gasoline prices have continued to decline here in the US. Since June, RBOB has been pretty much one way, sliding from ~$4.30 to $2.16. That’s half. Of course, lower crude prices are a huge factor, but over the summer we were hearing all about refinery capacity. Is there more to it than the oil price? XLE vs crude – XOM closing in on 100, etc. How much of an impact is this having to help affordability given the broader inflationary environment?

Inflation is proceeding unabated, as we saw Sam’s newsletter this week. Some Goldman guy was out this week saying there may be a recession in 2023. Sam looked at the terminal rate in his newsletter this week. How would accelerated inflation or steepening of recession worries affect the Fed’s actions?

We had BOJ head Kuroda (who has been in the job for a decade) begin talking about Japan hitting its 2% inflation target. If that were to happen, how likely would the BOJ be to scale back is ultra-loose monetary policy? Impact on Japan’s equity market, govt bonds, etc?

Key themes
1. How low will gasoline go?
2. Inflation/Recession worries
3. The day after Japan hits 2%

This is the 45th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:
Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon
Sam: https://twitter.com/SamuelRines
Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/WK94po2V1rA

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On Wednesday, Jay Powell talked and said “The time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the December meeting.” The JOLTs data that came from Wednesday showed a slowing in job openings and the employment data from Friday was still strong but moderated a bit. With China announcing some changes to lockdowns, how worried should we be about commodity prices, given the “moderating” Fed? Albert Marko leads the discussion on this.

We also saw the UK announce windfall oil & gas taxes last week. We’ve seen a slew of announcements to halt investment. This is something that Tracy called out well before the windfall tax was announced. What will the impact be and how did the UK government think this would go over? Tracy explains this in more detail.

Given the LME nickel issues, FTX, etc., credibility is a concern at times. Why do these systems fail? What should people who trade know about exchanges that nobody tells them? Josh shares his expertise on what it’s like to build an exchange.

Key themes:
1. Fed “moderating the pace…”
2. Windfall oil and gas taxes in the UK
3. What’s it like to build an exchange?

This is the 44th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:
Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon
Josh: https://twitter.com/JoshCrumb
Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl

Time Stamp:
0:00 Start
0:45 Key themes for this episode
1:45 Fed's "moderation" and the job markets
5:45 GDP revision on the back of crude export from the US
10:25 How much of Powell's moderation is predicated on China's opening?
11:30 Why does the Russian price cap make the price of oil go up?
15:38 Windfall oil and gas taxes in the UK
22:00 Will other countries also put windfall tax?
23:57 What is an exchange and why do problems emerge?
29:55 Is it possible to separate exchange and brokerage?
32:30 What people should know about an exchange?

Watch on Youtube: https://youtu.be/EqRSaIQmgv0

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The last couple of weeks has seen rising levels of unrest in China. This seemingly started in a Zhengzhou iPhone factory after the deaths of seven workers and has rapidly spread after Covid lockdowns contributed to the deaths of a family of 12 in Urumqi. Some are even saying the World Cup contributed to domestic unrest. But there’s no getting around the fact that people are just tired of lockdowns.

There’s an old Chinese saying – often attributed to Mao Zedong: “A single spark can start a prairie fire.”

What started this prairie fire and what does it mean for China and the world? We discuss that in this special episode with Dexter Roberts, Isaac Stonefish, and Albert Marko.

Dexter talks about his retweet of a note from Lingling Wei.

Isaac talks more about this unrest potentially leading to the downfall of Xi Jinping. That seems optimistic, especially for the West. What are some of the probable outcomes?

And on the ongoing risks and market impact, Albert shares his knowledge on the issue. We’ve talked a lot about Chinese markets and the CNY. How will the markets react in the coming weeks? And how Western companies will respond to these protests and the aftermath?

Key themes:
1. Protest Context – Spark and prairie fire
2. Will anything change? “
3. Risks and market impact

This is the 43rd episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:
Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Dexter: https://twitter.com/dtiffroberts
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon
Isaac: https://twitter.com/isaacstonefish

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This Week Ahead, we’re joined by Daniel Lacalle, Tracy Shuchart, and Sam Rines.

First discussion is on liquidity drain and quantitative tightening (QT). How difficult is it?

Rate hikes get a lot of the headlines, but QT peaked at just under $9 trillion in April of this year. The Fed has pulled just over $200 billion from the balance sheet since then, which isn’t nothing, but it’s not much compared to the total.

Where do we go from here? Most of the Fed’s balance sheet is in Treasuries, followed by Mortgage-backed securities. What does the path ahead look like – and where is the pain felt most acutely? Daniel leads on this discussion.

We also look at the copper gap with Tracy. We don’t really have enough copper over the next ten years to fill demand. Despite that, we’ve seen copper prices fall this year – and Complete Intelligence doesn’t expect them to rise in the coming months. Tracy helps us understand why we’re seeing this and what’s the reason for the more recent fall in copper price. Is it just recession? Will we see prices snap upward to fill the gap or will it be a gradual upward price trend?

We’ve had some earnings reports for retail over the past couple of weeks and Sam had a fantastic newsletter on that. On previous shows, we’ve talked about how successful US retailers have pushed price (because of inflation) over volume.

Costco and Home Depot have done this successfully. Walmart had serious inventory problems earlier this year, but their grocery has really saved them. Target has problems, but as Sam showed in his newsletter, general merchandise retailers have had a harder time pushing price. What does this mean? Is Target an early indicator that the US consumer is dead?

Key themes:
1. Liquidity drain and QT
2. Copper Gap
3. Retail and the US Consumer
4. What’s up for the Week Ahead?

This is the 42nd episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:
Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Daniel: https://twitter.com/dlacalle_IA
Sam: https://twitter.com/SamuelRines
Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl

Watch this Week Ahead episode here: https://youtu.be/TNPf0sjzSis

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Emma Muhleman and Boris Ryvkin join us for this Week Ahead episode, with Albert Marko. We talk about FTX and why it happened. FTX transferred about $8 billion of customer deposits to a trading arm called Alameda, and they lost it. FTX was assumed to be a regulated institution. It wasn’t. So the customer deposits evaporated.

There was a desperate attempt to merge with Binance. That didn’t happen.

FTX filed Chapter 11 on Friday, and then Sam Bankman-Fried apologized as if that just absolves him and makes everything better. Albert helps us understand what happened here and what it means not just for Sam, but for markets.

We also saw some selling in crude markets as FTX collapsed. Emma talks us through that and tells us how long the crypto unwinds will impact commodity markets.

Boris talks us through the CPI print because it seems the rate of rise of CPI slowed, and it feels like it overrode the FTX worries and there was this huge cyber relief in markets for the past couple of days that we’ve conquered inflation. And the Feds only going to raise by 50 in December, and then after that, we have some 25s.

Key themes:
1. Why the FTX happened?
2. Crude & Crypto Correlation?
3. CPI Print: Inflation Solved!
4. What’s up for the Week Ahead?

Learn more about CI Futures, a machine-learning markets forecasting platform.

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:
Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon
Emma: https://twitter.com/EmmaCFA1
Boris: https://twitter.com/BRyvkin

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/2WuxxoDpYo4

Time Stamp:
0:00 Start
1:50 Why FTX happened? What does it mean for markets?
4:21 Jon Corzine and Sam of FTX?
5:59 What do these all mean for crypto in general?
7:50 Are there other crypto players that will most likely fail like FTX?
14:04 Crude and crypto correlation
18:22 CPI print: is inflation conquered?
24:26 Yellen-Fed factor and layoffs
28:06 Will there be a regulatory relief for energy?
30:48 Is there pressure to have Russia-Ukraine peace?
38:49 What's for the week ahead?

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In this episode, we are joined by two special guests: Mary Kissel and Travis Kimmel. Mary is the EVP and senior policy advisor at Stephens. She was the senior-most aide to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and was editorial board for Wall Street Journal. Travis Kimmel is a technology entrepreneur, market philosopher and a spicy tweeter.

First, we dig into the approach to getting out of this Stagflationary model. The Bank of England, the ECB, the Fed, and the BOJ all seem to be starting a managed decline. And the real question is, is that really necessary?

We all know the Fed raised by 75bps and are expected to continue with at least 50bps in December. Raising rates has decimated tech names and made the operations significantly more challenging. Travis discuss with us the impact of the whiplash in interest rates on operators, on the people who run companies, and how they run those companies in this type of environment.

And then finally, with Albert, we talk about Brazil. We saw a big election result in Brazil this week with Lula declared the winner. Many Brazilians are not happy.

Also, note that Brazil is one of the largest emerging economies and a huge trade partner for China. Lula has already made comments in support of Russia in the war with Ukraine. What does this mean? Is Brazil a risk for US power in the western hemisphere, given the inroads that China already has in Venezuela, etc?

Key themes
1. Can we grow out of this stagflationary muddle?
2. Impact of Fed rates whiplash on operators
3. How big of a risk is Brazil?

This is the 40th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:
Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Mary: https://twitter.com/marykissel
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon
Travis: https://twitter.com/coloradotravis

Time Stamp:
0:00 Start
1:45 Key themes for this episode
2:36 Growth in stagflation?
5:44 Is this a boomer-millennial thing?
10:21 Will we see the start of some fracking in Europe to ease the burden of energy prices?
12:26 We just need coherent and stable framework for the economy
14:08 Impact of Fed rates whiplash on operators
17:53 Are we making a depression period?
19:06 Civil war in politics
23:02 Brazil political changes: what we need to look at?
25:09 Are we seeing more regional political risks for the US?
28:20 What's to look for in the week ahead?

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/VJV_o1z9WV4

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In this episode, we’re joined by Isaac Stone Fish, who is the CEO of Strategy Risks. He’s the author of a book called America Second, and he lived in China for seven years.

We talk about how are foreign companies dealing with the political changes in China? Or what should they be paying attention to? We’ve seen changes in Xi’s team that, to be honest, weren’t all that unexpected, but seems unexpected anyway. It’s certainly a hard turn to the CCP’s commie roots. This tweet really underscores how desperate Xi is to set an old school tone.

Markets have seemed a little spooked this week, so we saw orders from Beijing to prop up the CNY and Chinese equities, which didn’t work all that well. But with all the political and market backdrop, what does all of this mean for US and other foreign businesses? Are foreign employees at risk? Do we expect direct investment to slow down?

On the risk side, we look at tech earnings, which are super bad. Hiring is a huge issue and tech firms seem to have been hiring based on their valuation not based on their revenues. When will we see headcount reduction announcements? One of Meta’s investors was saying they should cut 20%. Albert shares his views on this.

And we’re also looking at crude oil inventories and refined product inventories. They’re way below averages. We saw another draw on global inventories this week. As OPEC supply is contracting ~1.2m bpd. Russian crude sanctions start soon. And US exported 5.12m bpd last week, making it the 3rd largest crude exporter. We know global inventories are low, but when will it start to bite? Tracy shares to us what’s going in.

Key themes

China risk for Western companies
Tech earnings & China
Crude inventories & Asia stockpiling

This is the 39th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:

Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Isaac: https://twitter.com/isaacstonefish
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon
Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl

Time Stamp:

0:00 Start
1:00 Key themes for this Week Ahead
2:52 What the news about China means to Western businesses
6:38 What has changed around the concept of Communist Party membership over the last ten or 15 years?
8:20 Anybody who’s overseeing a business in China has to understand modern Chinese history
9:31 Risks for foreign staff in China
12:34 Congress does not want US companies to do business with China
14:14 Danger of a rush to the exits in twelve months
17:58 Tech earnings are super bad – how bad will layoffs be?
21:10 Is it possible to cut 20% of Meta’s workforce?
22:44 China and US competition in India and other countries
24:52 Crude inventories – when will this start to bite?
28:31 Japan is stockpiling crude – is it because of geopolitical concerns?
29:47 China stimulus – will they do it in February?
31:55 What happens to the crude demand of Covid Zero ends?
34:27 Will oil prices raise by 30% before 2022 ends?

Watch this episode on Youtube.

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For the transcript: https://www.completeintel.com/weekahead/us-policy-for-small-businesses-the-week-ahead-17-oct-2022

We’ve had several policies that have hurt small business, especially since the advent of Covid. The US administration just implemented a policy to move gig/independent workers to employee status. How does this hurt small business? Carol Roth, our special guest for this episode, discussed that in this Week Ahead.

Also, we’ve seen a lot of negative news this week with producer prices, wages, consumer prices rising. One Twitter user asked what would Carol do if she was in charge? What would she do and how does she think it’d help?

Albert helped us look at the Fed and is the dovish Fed dead? We’ve known this for some time, and there were hopes for a pivot, but that seems to be over.

Tracy also talked about diesel inventories, which she talked about for a very long time. She helped us dig into that in this episode.

Key themes

US policy punishing small business
The dovish Fed is dead
Diesel inventories
The Week Ahead

This is the 38th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:

Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Carol: https://twitter.com/caroljsroth
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon
Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl

Time Stamp

0:00 Start

Listen to the podcast version on Spotify here:

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In this episode, we’re joined by our special guest, Simon Mikailovich from the Bullion Reserve, along with regular guests Tracy Shuchart and Albert Marko.

First, we looked at systemic risk in the case for hard assets with Simon. When we look at recent events like the BOE intervention in the long-term gilt market, where does he think the next systemic risks could come from? Is it developed more market (European) debt?

Also, Simon discussed how we should be looking at the gold market now. Why is there a divergence between physical gold at the retail level and institutional demand for gold derivatives?

Next, we went into a little bit on OPEC cuts with Tracy. OPEC cut supply by 2m BPD. Everyone has talked about this. We’ve spoken in earlier episodes about a price spike in oil later in Q4, partly owing to SPR releases stopping or slowing. Is this even likelier now? Some US legislators are pushing a bill to break up OPEC. Is that even remotely possible?

And then finally, we took our first look at US midterms. Democrats now control both House and Senate. That’s a huge advantage for Joe Biden. For many reasons – inflation, crime, etc – Democrats are in trouble for November’s midterms, but will they lose control of both the House and the Senate? Albert discussed that in this episode. We’ll cover more of this in the coming weeks, but we want to have a starter conversation here.

Key themes:1. Systemic risks and the case for hard assets (Gold)
2. OPEC cuts = Q4 Crude price whipsaw?
3. US Midterms
4. The Week Ahead

This is the 37th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:
Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Simon: https://twitter.com/S_Mikhailovich
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon
Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/JCzuaCX6Axw

Time Stamps:

0:41 Key themes for this week ahead
1:30 Where will the new systemic risks will come from?
7:46 Do they usually break gradually or do they usually break all at once?
11:49 Is gold dead?
18:00 OPEC, crude prices in Q4
21:10 OPEC changing their orientation to Asia?
26:15 US midterms
30:10 What's for the week ahead?

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In this episode, we talked about what’s happening with inflation in markets, and where it’s hitting, particularly in the US in different sectors. Mike walked us through the Asian contagion for inflation. Also, given where USDCNY has been over the past week or so, how vulnerable is China? Are they more concerned about inflation or export competitiveness?

Sam put out a couple of wonderful newsletters about central bank responses to inflation last week. The Fed seems – and is – unrelenting in their response, regardless of what happens with UK gilts. One area Sam raised last week is the car market versus mid-market dining: Cars vs Cracker Barrel. He walked us through the price and volume considerations with these two.

And then we looked at Meta’s move to freeze hiring and their warning about layoffs. Is that a broader signal for tech?

Key themes:
1. Inflation: Asian Contagion
2. US Inflation: Cars vs Cracker Barrell
3. Meta’s move: More to come?
4. The Week Ahead

This is the 36th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:
Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Mike: https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy
Sam: https://twitter.com/SamuelRines

Time Stamp
0:00 Start
0:49 Themes for this Week Ahead
2:47 How vulnerable is China? Are they more concerned about inflation/export?
10:23 China will not be the exporter of deflation anymore
13:28 Will China give in to devaluing CNY?
16:15 Cars VS mid-market dining
22:00 Price increases will continue?
24:26 Is this the beginning of the end of tech wage spike?
29:11 How does this current ad slowdown compare to the past?
30:20 What’s for the week ahead?

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/FsSSfN62z8I'

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Learn more about CI Futures here: http://completeintel.com/futures

For the transcript: https://www.completeintel.com/weekahead/equity-downtrent-the-week-ahead-26-sep-2022

S&P has fallen to 2680. It's down by 1.7%. How serious is the equity downtrend? The market is in a longer-term downtrend. Do we expect sharp rallies into the long-term trend or new lows for the year and a test of 3300-3500 on the S&P? Eric Barna talked us through this from the technical perspective.

Also, we looked at the Fed's view of a better balance in the labor force. Sam Rines has written about that and he talked us through that as well.

Lastly, we have Tracy Shuchart who shared more of the energy issues in Europe and some issues around potentially moving manufacturing out of the region in a way that will hit the most.

Key themes:

How serious is the equity downtrend?
Fed: “Better balance” in labor markets
Energy intensive mfg exiting Europe
The Week Ahead

This is the 35th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:

Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Eric: https://twitter.com/DoubleWideCap
Sam: https://twitter.com/SamuelRines
Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl

Watch the video version on Youtube: https://youtu.be/U9vbWa3-QWg

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Learn more about CI Futures here: http://completeintel.com/2022Promo

It has been a terrible week in markets. It is not looking good for anybody, at least on the long side. A lot of that seemed to change when the CPI number came out. It's like people woke up and terminal rate is going to be higher and just everything flushes out.

We talked through why the dollar is where it is and how long we expect it to stay there. Brent Johnson recently said that the USD & equities will both rise. And so we dived a little bit deep into that.

We also looked at crude. Crude’s obviously been falling. Tracy discussed how long is that going to last.

We also did a little bit of Fed talk because the Fed meets this week. And we want to really understand when does the Fed stop? After last week’s US CPI print, the terminal rate rose from 4% pretty dramatically. Does QT accelerate?

Key themes:

$USD 🚀
How low will crude oil go?
When does the Fed stop?
The Week Ahead

This is the 34th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:

Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Brent: https://twitter.com/SantiagoAuFund
Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl

Time Stamps

0:00 Start
1:20 Key themes for this episode
2:24 What got us to stronger USD and will it continue to rise?
8:29 Dedollarization
10:23 Intervention in the dollar if it gets too strong?
12:22 Both the USD and US equities will be rising?
14:18 Crude: how low can it go?
18:03 Look at the curves for crude
19:17 Slingshot in December?
20:18 How India and China buys Russian oil and resell
21:33 Restock the SPR at $80??
22:57 When does the Fed stop raising rates?
29:33 What if Russia, Ukraine, and China don't lock down anymore?
32:08 What's for the week ahead?

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/g6nxbHHFG4o

strongusdollar #usd #dollar #dollarforecast #usdollar #investing #stockmarketnews #strongdollar #finance #money #markets #economy #financialnews #crudeoilforecast #crudeoil #crudeoilprice #oilprices #wticrude #fedtalk #fed #jeromepowell #federalreserve #interestrates

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This past week, we've seen a lot happen in equity markets. But what's looming in the background of all of this is geopolitics. And so, in this episode, we talked about the long tail of Europe's energy crisis. We also looked at the impact of US Dollar strength on the EU and to a lesser extent EM. Lastly, we discussed the growing US-India tensions over the Russian oil cap.

Key themes:

Long tail of Europe’s energy crisis
Impact of USD strength on EU & EM
US-India tensions over Russian oil cap

This is the 33rd episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:

Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon/
Velina: https://twitter.com/vtchakarova

Watch this on Youtube: https://youtu.be/nRQy1Vc2rA8

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This week we've seen a lot around dollar hitting almost 110. We've seen a lot in the US market downturn. There’s a lot of speculation around the Fed. But we're really focusing on Europe this week.

This week's key themes are around European natgas: stock versus flows, Russian oil price caps and the fallout that has come with that, food and fertilizer in Europe, and then we'll look to the week ahead.

Key themes
1. European Natgas Stock vs Flow
2. Russian Oil Price Cap Fallout
3. Europe’s Food and Fertilizer Fallout
4. What’s ahead for next week?

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:

Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon/
Sam: https://twitter.com/samuelrines
Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/dSUMwr7oLTE

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Saudi Arabia has come out with some comments about restricting their supply, and we also have some information on the SPR release in the US. We talked about that and the crude oil supply.

We also discussed the Jackson Hole drama and the conclusions of Powell’s latest speech. Why do the markets react that way?

We’ve seen movements in tech stocks and some talks of the stimulus release. Will we finally get some China stimulus?

Key themes

Crude oil supply: Saudi/UAE cuts vs SPR
Jackson Hole Drama
China Stimulus (Finally?)
What’s ahead for next week?

This is the 31st episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:

Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd

Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon/

Sam: https://twitter.com/samuelrines

Josh: https://twitter.com/Josh_Young_1

Time Stamps

0:00 Start
1:15 Key themes of this Week Ahead episode
1:56 Crude oil supply restrictions: why it happened, why it's important?
3:48 Will the cutting of crude oil start incrementally and then accelerate?
5:32 How much of this is related to the SPR release?
9:19 SPR release being empty?
10:31 Crude oil prices will rise quickly toward the end of the year
12:14 What does the divergence include?
12:58 Powell's Jackson Hole speech conclusion.
19:11 Will some of the 25s be 50s in Q4?
20:10 Midterms and the Fed
23:21 SPR release might stop in September due to some contamination.
25:00 Is Chinese stimulus finally coming?
27:10 Will China stimulus hurt the US?
29:00 What's for the week ahead?

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/3KBIIiQA7mg

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Learn more about CI Futures here: http://completeintel.com/2022Promo

In this episode, we talked about the European drought — and looked at the cost, energy impacts, and industry impacts. We also talked about coal and discussed more broadly energy. But more specifically coal, and what will be some of the issues around it. How will the coal issues impact refineries and other downstream activities? Finally, we looked at inflation. It’s been covered to death last week — CPI PPI — but we also put a few words in on it.

Key themes
1. Europe drought: Cost, energy & industry impact
2. Coal & energy
3. Inflation
4. What’s ahead for next week?

—————————————————————-

This is the 30th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:

Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon/
Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl

Time Stamps

0:00 Start
0:49 Key themes for this Week Ahead
2:16 Europe drought: containers on the Rhine
4:22 How hot is Europe compared to other places?
5:25 How is France doing?
6:02 Europe’s embargo of Russian coal – will it make things worse?
7:48 The beneficiaries of Europe’s Russian coal embargo
9:32 Where’s most of the coal coming from?
10:00 Rhine River and how it affects coal and crude transport
13:00 Is there a silver lining in what’s happening in Europe?
14:16 How will the happenings in Europe impact politics in the region?
15:36 How you should be playing European equities?
16:40 Have we hit the peak inflation?
20:22 Will there be a Feb pivot?
21:17 What’s for the week ahead? Listen to the podcast version on

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/UsilTyha_FM

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Energy has taken a huge downside hit this week, in the wake of the OPEC+ announcement, US refining capacity utilization declining, etc. What’s happening? Why are we seeing differences between physical and paper crude markets?

Also, there was talk months ago about a new energy supercycle. Is that real? With China-Taiwan-US tensions tighter than they’ve been for years, we’re seeing Chinese tech stocks just muddle through. We haven’t seen a major hit – as if China tech will see major fallout from these tensions – but we also haven’t seen a major bump – as if China is expected to stimulate out of this to win domestic hearts and minds.

Also, could possible government intervention to solve China’s mortgage credit crunch be holding back the broad stimulus we’ve all expected for a couple of quarters?

Key themes:

Low energy (prices)
China tech & stimulus
Equity upside?
What’s ahead for next week?

This is the 29th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:

Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon/
Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl

Time Stamps

0:00 Start
0:30 Key themes for this Week Ahead episode
1:51 Moves we’re seeing in energy markets – why there’s a fall?
3:39 How much of the energy moves is seasonal?
6:58 EIA computer “glitch” problem
7:24 What happened in the refining capacity now at 91%?
8:30 Capacity utilization fall – is this a statement about the denominator or falling demand
10:14 Is the commodities supercycle happening?
12:13 China and technology – KWEB is not falling or rising
14:00 Will the Chinese government help real estate developers? Will that take away from possible tech stimulus?
16:58 Viewer question: Is there still upside benefit to SPY?
22:18 How will be the start of the Fed pivot — 25 or 50 bps rise?
24:45 What’s for the week ahead? Listen to the podcast version on

Watch this episode on Youtube here: https://youtu.be/HtXd0hvPy78

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There’s all this buzz around Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. What is she doing there? Why all the stress? Why is China upset? Also, Yellen got China to stop the stimulus? If China starts the stimulus, will that be a really good thing for Chinese equities? And what does that do for the CNY?

We also discussed the likelihood now with Pelosi’s visit that China will start stimulating. And what does that mean for oil and gas imports and Europe?

Will China try to hurt US companies that are in China? Do you think they could push against expats in China and make life difficult for them? What are possible aggressive moves that China could take? Like cyberattacks?

There has been some potential whispers of China taking over some of Taiwan's small islands to make a statement. Is that possible? And will they take it on other countries like India? What is the likelihood of China and the US in direct warfare engagement in the next twelve months?

This is the 28th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead panel on Twitter:

Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon/
Chris: https://twitter.com/BaldingsWorld

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/D7E2ScwkkyQ

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We had a big week, with a lot going on globally. The president's got COVID. Europe raised rates to zero, and so on and so forth.

First, we talked about Europe. It's a mess, everyone knows that, but we talked through some opportunities there.

Next, we talked about aluminum. Industrial metals have been really interesting on the downside of late, but Tracy found something around aluminum that is really interesting.

And then we talked about tech, about Snap's earnings, and what that could mean for other tech earnings coming up.

Key themes:

Europe is a mess. What’s next?
Aluminum supply shock
Tech SNA(P)FU
What’s ahead for next week?

This is the 27th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead experts on Twitter:

Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Sam: https://twitter.com/samuelrines
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon/
Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl/

Time Stamps

0:00 Start
0:50 95% on markets forecasts using CI Futures
1:44 Key themes for the week
2:34 What's happening in Europe and what are some opportunities there?
6:37 Why did the European equity indices in the wake of the ECB meeting?
8:32 What can the ECB do moving forward?
9:40 Metals: what's going to happen in the aluminum markets?
13:14 Will we switch back to goods in September?
16:50 Snapchat's earnings and other earnings of tech equities.
21:06 Ad inventory element to tech earnings
23:16 Is there an opportunity for Meta to buy something like Snapchat.
24:21 The week ahead: Fed meeting next week

Watch this on Youtube: https://youtu.be/P3NyA7T-czI

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Biden's Saudi trip ended up being a disappointment and there really is no immediate spare capacity, which is a surprise to no one.

What does the appreciated USD mean? We've already seen a fall in Sri Lanka and other places which we've talked about for weeks, but where is that going and when will that end?

We also talked about the FOMC expectations. What will the Fed do, especially given CPI PPI data? We have to also keep in mind that we have an election coming up in November, so it's really hard for the Fed to keep the heat on.

Key themes:

Biden’s Saudi Arabia trip 🛢️
USD🚀 rocket ship and fallout
FOMC expectations (CPI/PPI)
What’s ahead for next week?

This is the 26th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead experts on Twitter:

Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Sam: https://twitter.com/samuelrines
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon/

Time Stamps

0:00 Start
0:49 Key themes for the episode
1:55 Biden's trip to Saudi Arabia
3:23 PR game and disastrous foreign policies
5:00 The US President looks like he has no power?
6:17 US can be a marginal price setter for oil, but...
7:34 what happens to crude prices?
10:08 Why is USD pushing higher?
11:22 What's happening in the Euro Dollar and why?
13:51 FOMC
19:00 What happened to the gasoline prices?
20:07 When will Yellen give up on the 2% inflation?
23:45 What's for the week ahead?

Watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/HpcWVeE8mPY

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We had a pretty volatile week this week, with crude selling off pretty sharply early in the week. In this episode, we're going to look at energy backwardation, and Tracy is going to educate us on what's happening in those markets.

We also had some comments from Putin about a multipolar world. We're going to have Albert talk through that.

And then on Friday, unfortunately, we saw the assassination of Japan's former Prime Minister Abe. So we're going to talk about the Japan post-Abe and what that means for the region.

Key themes:

Energy backwardation
Putin’s Multi-Polar world
Japan post-Abe
What’s ahead for next week?

This is the 25th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead experts on Twitter:

Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon/

Time Stamps

0:00 Start
0:54 Key Themes for the week
1:28 Catalyst of the energy sell-off on Tuesday
5:44 Will we see more action in energy prices?
6:57 Is it cost-ineffective to make hydrogen with natgas prices?
8:11 Diesel
9:20 Vladimir Putin's multipolar world.
13:44 Japan post-Abe
20:29 What's for the week ahead?

Watch the video on Youtube here: https://youtu.be/E-v7Wcqr1g8

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We've all seen many chops in the markets, especially on the energy side, with the fuel and oil shortages. That was a little bit unexpected to people. Equity markets are struggling and there are a lot of talks this week about recession and trying to move the Fed into being more accommodative, which is 180 degrees from where we were two weeks ago.

Copper is hurting and down 28% since March. What is this telling us about metals, generally, and drivers of metals demand? Is this telling us that China – the largest buyer of industrial metals – won’t really bounce back? Does the market doubt China’s stimulus announcements?

We also discussed Europe, its economy is slowing, unemployment rising, and they have gas shortages, as well.

Lastly, is the Fed anchoring inflation?

Key themes:

Metals Meltdown
How badly is Europe hurting?
Fed inflation anchors
What’s ahead for next week?

This is the 24th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead experts on Twitter:

Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Sam: https://twitter.com/SamuelRines
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon/

Time Stamps

0:00 Start
1:45 Key themes for this episode
2:23 Metals meltdown - what are they telling us?
3:48 Will there be a comeback of automotive?
5:09 Does the market believe China's promise of a stimulus?
7:25 How much is China's manipulation be beneficial for China?
9:26 What about Japan?
12:00 Europe's economy and inflation
15:21 Europe's concentration risk on the sale side
19:42 Europe's problems stem from this
20:32 Fed and anchoring inflation
25:50 What's for the Week Ahead?

Watch on Youtube here: https://youtu.be/zO_HcIh0gEs

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Watch the video version on Youtube here: https://youtu.be/GuEH1aZlBJ8

Get the transcript on our website: https://www.completeintel.com/weekahead/the-week-ahead-27-jun-2022

Powell was out saying “I don’t think a recession is inevitable” but also admitted that rate hikes may be one of many factors that push the economy into recession. All of this while bank credit continues to grow, which we saw flatten in 2020 and decline in 2008. What’s happening? Is a recession inevitable at this point?

We talked about the dollar two weeks ago and the strength is still there. Are we pushing higher so commodities feel a bit cheaper to Americans? Is this temporary – mainly so Americans talk about cheaper gasoline over the July 4th holiday weekend? How far and how long do you expect the dollar to go? Why?

Can crude continue to rally into a recession?

Key themes:
1. The “R” Word
2. Geopolitical fallout
3. Crude 💪 or 👎/ Dollar 🚀
4. What’s ahead for next week?

This is the 23rd episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead experts on Twitter:

Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Sam: https://twitter.com/SamuelRines
Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon/

Time Stamps

0:00 Start
1:03 Key themes for the week
1:48 Powell's recession call
3:48 The catalysts that could whip growth
6:58 Geopolitics in EMs and related to the US
8:35 Is the ECB a risk as well?
11:00 Crude and the Dollar
16:00 Where do you expect the dollar to go?
19:00 The week ahead

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We had a chop last week. And towards the end of the week, we had the CPI print, which put a damper on markets. In this episode, we'll talk about CPI and peak inflation, which people have been talking about for months, but we haven't quite hit it yet.

Of course, we're going to talk about the hot dollar, and we're going to talk about fuel inflation and things like refining capacity and even a nat gas plant explosion that happened here in Texas last week.

And then finally, what is going on in the week ahead?

Key themes:

CPI & “Peak Inflation” - Core CPE, hand off from goods to services, Fed policy, and markets.
Hot dollar - DXY has only been higher in Feb 1985 and Jan 2002. Fed, Dollar, Yellen, etc.
Fuel Inflation - Refining capacity, natgas explosion.

This is the 22nd episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead experts on Twitter:

Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Sam: https://twitter.com/SamuelRines
Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl

Time Stamps

0:00 Start
1:26 CPE, CPI and the Peak Inflation
4:41 Credit capacity - should this make us nervous?
5:50 Wages in the US compared to developing economies
7:17 Corporate earnings (oil, refineries, hospitality industry, retail)
9:40 What does the CPI mean for the Fed?
11:00 MBS acceleration -- will this have a multiplier effect on consumption?
13:00 Interesting part of Friday
14:17 Hot Dollar - DXY
17:30 Strong Dollar's impact on fuel prices
18:50 Who hurts the most on surging oil prices?
20:18 Energy prices - gasoline and petrol - US's refining capacity
22:47 Government incentive for midstream companies to build refineries?
24:49 Would it make sense to reconfigure some refineries?
26:30 What's for the week ahead?

Watch on Youtube here: https://youtu.be/RuoNYGXy9qs

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This past week, we had a flat S&P 500. Nasdaq was up slightly. Bond yields were up slightly. It was a summer stall this week. Not a lot happening from the beginning to the end of the week. In this episode, we're going to focus on geopolitics.

Key themes:

Is India a geopolitical trendsetter?
China, MBS & Biden - BFFs?
What does Turkey get out of halting NATO expansion?
What’s ahead for next week?

This is the 21st episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead experts on Twitter:

Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Sam: https://twitter.com/SamuelRines
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon
Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl

Time Stamps

0:00 Start
1:36 India as a geopolitical trendsetter now?
3:55 US is frustrated with India? What's going?
7:35 Is India being ridiculously nationalistic?
8:00 China, MBS, and Biden as BFFs?
10:08 How does MBS look at Biden with China opening up?
11:31 Awkward and Desperate: Is the US-Saudi a short-term diplomatic issue?
14:45 Is there any place they can go for energy supply?
16:00 What does Turkey get out of halting the NATA expansion?
20:20 What impacts on some countries by opening the Bosphorus.
21:22 What is DC thinking and do out of the gun discussions?
24:24 What to expect for the week ahead?

Watch on Youtube: https://youtu.be/Ebr9NPlxHi8

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We've had a big week in markets. The S&P is up 5 percent. We're looking at whether this rally has legs, where's the volatility, and if the recession is canceled? Also, we have a shorter trading week next week due to Memorial Day on Monday in the US. What's to expect in 4 days?

Key themes:
1. Does this relief rally have legs?
2. Where’s the volatility?
3. Is the recession canceled?
4. What’s ahead for next week?

This is the 20th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead experts on Twitter:

Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Sam: https://twitter.com/SamuelRines
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon

Time Stamps

0:00 Start
1:10 Does this rally have legs?
1:58 When will the tail end?
2:40 Crypto has no participation in the rally
3:31 Why tech is still weak?
3:52 Why tech is so subdued?
5:00 What to expect in the options market in the next 4 weeks?
6:42 Durable goods chart from Sam's newsletter.
8:52 Layoffs in tech, will it continue?
11:30 Will investors and analysts become tougher on companies as we normalize?
13:55 Will we have a recalibration of valuation expectation if there is no recession?
14:34 What to watch out in the 4-day trading week?

Watch on Youtube: https://youtu.be/5Oy8a6POujs

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The SPX was down 4%, WTI was up 2.8%, and the 10-year yield was down 2.9%. Intraday volume has been an issue all week. What’ going thru an institutional trader’s mind in this market? Sam Rines explains.

On the commodities market, wheat was down 6% this week. Corn ended this week down about 1%. We'll help us understand ag and fertilizer markets with Tracy Shuchart.

The dollar (DXY) is down a bit this week, about half a percent. Are global central bankers worried about a rising dollar and is there anything they can do about it? Albert Marko gives his insights on this.

Key themes:

How are institutions trading the intraday vol?
Ags and fertilizer: Demand Destruction vs Supply Shortages
$USD 💪 - 🙂 or ☹️

This is the 19th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead experts on Twitter:

Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Sam: https://twitter.com/SamuelRines
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon
Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl

Watch this on Youtube: https://youtu.be/GFgJeNo7pvY

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The number one issue for Americans is inflation. As long as this is a top consideration, the pressure will be on the Fed to bring it down. Sam has been pretty consistent with 3 x 50 rate hikes in May, June, and July. What changed in trading today? Is everyone still bearish? Samuel Rines explains.

Also, what’s next for crypto? Luna fell from $90 last Thursday to $0.00005952 on Friday. Their circulation went from 4 billion yesterday to 6.5 trillion today. Watching the crypto fallout is terrible – lots of people have lost lots of money in this supposedly immutable “currency”. Albert Marko explains what happens next.

Lastly, is China really falling apart? We’ve seen some unsettling posts over the past several weeks out of China. From lockdowns to port closures to gossip that Xi Jinping has been sidelined.

Key themes:

Is everyone a bear now?
What’s next for crypto?
Is China really falling apart?

This is the 18th episode of The Week Ahead, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead experts on Twitter:

Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Sam: https://twitter.com/SamuelRines
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon

Watch this on Youtube: https://youtu.be/kJC4Vzcgw_U

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The Fed just announced the 50 basis point hike this week. Albert and Sam explain what this means for markets in the near term. Also, how badly does JPow need media training (he said “a normal economic person probably doesn’t have that much extra to spend”)?

We also discussed what’s happening with TLT? And then, what will the Fed do next? Why is everyone talking about a 75bp move?

Tracy explains what's happening in natural gas and the crude oil markets. Why does energy seem range-bound?

Key themes:
1. What the F just happened? (F for Fed)
2. What the F is next? (F for Fed)
3. Why does energy seem range-bound?

This is the 17th episode of The Week Ahead in collaboration with Complete Intelligence and Intelligence Quarterly, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

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Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Sam: https://twitter.com/SamuelRines
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Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon

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Get the full transcript of this episode at https://www.completeintel.com/weekahead/the-week-ahead-2-may-2022

Sam Rines wrote a piece on business costs and uncertainty weighing on earnings this season. He talked us through what’s happening with interesting charts on Caterpillar and Old Dominion.

We saw Facebook turn dramatically this week and we saw KWEB up over 7% on Friday. At the same time, Amazon, Pinterest, and others with disappointing earnings. Tech isn’t really a sector-wide play as it was in 2020 and 2021. Alber Marko explains what should we be looking at in tech.

We’ve had a lot of action in Europe with Russia cutting off the gas in Poland and Bulgaria and a demand that oil and gas be paid in Rubles. Tracy Shuchart explains what it means for commodity prices and the market in general.

Key themes from last week
1. Earnings: COGS in the Machine
2. Earnings: Tech
3. Europe-Gas-Ruble Chaos

This is the 16th episode of The Week Ahead in collaboration with Complete Intelligence and Intelligence Quarterly, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead experts on Twitter:

Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Sam: https://twitter.com/SamuelRines
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Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon

Time Stamps

0:00 Start
1:05 Key themes
1:18 Caterpillar and Old Dominion
3:45 Will they leak in gradual price rises?
5:20 We've hit new pricing levels - permanent or not?
5:55 How much price increase are small businesses looking at?
6:49 Meta's G&A and number of employees.
8:45 Is tech a sector-wide play, still?
11:51 Euro, Ruble, gas prices -- what it means?
14:07 Conversion fees banks are charging for Euro to Ruble.
14:35 Russia turning off gas to Poland - did it hurt?
16:54 Is fertilizer still an urgent issue?
18:11 When will the Dollar go to 110?
20:12 Week Ahead lightning round.

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Fed Chairman Powell was out this week all but assuring a 50bp hike in May, also implying we may see a burst of quick hikes. Then everyone who said “it’s all priced in” two weeks ago panicked on Thursday and Friday. Mike Green shares what’s new here and why are we seeing the reactions now?

We’ve spoken before about Q2 earnings, expecting them to generally be weaker, partly on inflation, which every company is blaming for shortfalls.

Snapchat missed earnings but it reported 64% revenue growth, with daily active users up 20%.
Netflix lost subscribers. They’re now the tech cautionary tale.
FB is falling in anticipation of an earnings shortfall next week.
Tesla reported a 42% earnings surprise and they’re about even on week

We keep hearing about commodities getting smoked this week. What happened this week and what should we be thinking about right now?

We’ve got a bunch of housing metrics out on Tuesday (Case-Shiller, etc). Do the guys expect to see an impact on house prices already or will it take a couple of months/another rate rise to have a noticeable impact?

Key themes from last week
1. Powell’s Wrecking Ball (Dollar Wrecking Ball)
2. Tech Earnings
3. Commodities getting smoked?

Key themes for the Week Ahead
1. Housing
2. France election
3. Geopolitical lightning round

This is the 15th episode of The Week Ahead in collaboration with Complete Intelligence and Intelligence Quarterly, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead experts on Twitter:

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Chapters

0:57 Key themes from last week
1:55 What’s new in the Fed hike
4:22 Yellen was saying there will be no recession this year?
8:34 Demand destruction
12:26 The Dollar wrecking ball
16:46 Could food insecurity, and currency devaluation pressure Russia to stop the war?
17:47 Tech earnings
22:48 Commodities - what happened and what should we be thinking?
26:57 Key themes for the week ahead
27:09 Near-term impact on housing prices?
29:51 France election this week
32:03 Geopolitical lightning round

Watch on Youtube: https://youtu.be/PYOmpHPnbzE

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Get the full transcript of this episode at https://www.completeintel.com/weekahead/the-week-ahead-11-apr-2022

As a start, we looked at the Friday’s trading session and what it means. Is this a bullish market?

We’ve made a few recommendations over the past couple of months. We hope you’ve been paying attention specially on $IPI (Intrepit Potash) and $NTR (Nutrien).

We’ve talked about the tumbling lumber markets in recent weeks. What are Sam and Albert's current thinking on lumber as we’re looking at $LB lumber futures.Sam talked about housing last month. We looked at $XHB, the home builders ETF. How about the rates and housing? We’ve seen that homebuilders are getting hit with expected rate rises. What is the impact of this on the mortgage market, housing inventory, etc?

Shanghai has been closed for a few weeks now and the largest port in the world won’t open for about another week. How can the second largest economy continue to close when the West has already accepted Covid as endemic? How can manufacturers rely on China as a manufacturing center if they’re unreliable?

For the week ahead, we talked about the earnings season, their portfolios, and Albert talked about Chinese equities for months, etc. Is now the time to look at KWEB, which he discussed for some time?

We’ve got CPI out on Tuesday and is expected at around 7.9% and Retail sales on Friday, which is expected at around 0.3%. Inflation seems unstoppable and consumers seem to be getting tired of spending. Sam explains on this.

Key themes from last week
1. Friday trading session
2. Don't say we didn't warn you
3. Rates and housing (Tuna & Caviar)
4. China's shutdown

Key themes for the Week Ahead
1. Earnings season expectations
2. Near-term equity portfolios
3. CPI (Tuesday), expected 7.9

This is the 14th episode of The Week Ahead in collaboration of Complete Intelligence with Intelligence Quarterly, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead experts on Twitter:

Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Sam: https://twitter.com/SamuelRines
Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon

Time Stamps

0:00 Start
0:43 Key themes from last week
1:32 Friday trading session in review
4:14 Intrepid Potash and Nutrien
5:24 Can we keep running on the fertilizer trade?
6:37 Lumber futures
7:42 Will other commodities come down as well?
8:17 Home builders, XHB, 6% mortgage rates
11:39 Higher mortgage rates = lower asking prices from home sellers
14:55 China's slowdown due to Zero Covid Policy
23:47 Key themes for the week ahead
24:00 Expectations for the earnings season
28:06 KWEB and Chinese, US equities
31:02 Concerns on the CPI and retail sales numbers this week

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Yield curve inversion is on everybody’s mind and it only seems to be intensifying. It’s happened 4 times over the last 22 years. What does it mean, how does it impact Fed policy and how will it impact markets more broadly?

Energy prices are still a big problem and the Biden administration this week announced a very large release from the strategic petroleum reserve. Will this really bring down prices on a sustained basis? And what are some of the unintended consequences of the SPR release?

We’ve seen tech names rally pretty hard since mid-March like Alphabet and Facebook. What’s happening and how long will the tech rally?

Key themes from last week

Inverted yield curve and Fed policy
SPR release and crude market impacts
Tech’s comeback?

Key themes for the Week Ahead

Rubles for O&G. When will Europe give in?
Housing stocks and the housing market
Mixed messages of simultaneous stimulus and tightening (rate hikes with energy stimulus)

This is the 13th episode of The Week Ahead in collaboration of Complete Intelligence with Intelligence Quarterly, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead experts on Twitter:

Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Sam: https://twitter.com/SamuelRines
Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon

You can also watch this episode on Youtube: https://youtu.be/0KXcF5tdIYY

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We’ve seen so much about oil for rubles, gas for bitcoin, etc this week. Does it represent a fundamental shift for energy markets? And is the dollar dead? The yen fell pretty hard versus the dollar this week. Why is that happening, especially if the dollar is dead? Bonds spike pretty hard this week, especially the 5-year. What’s going on there and what does it mean?

Key themes from last week:

Oil for rubles (death of the Dollar?)
Rapidly depreciating JPY
Hawkish Fed and the soaring 5-year

Key themes for The Week Ahead:

New stimulus coming to help pay for energy. Inflationary?
How hawkish can the Fed go?
What’s ahead for equity markets?

This is the 12th episode of The Week Ahead in collaboration of Complete Intelligence with Intelligence Quarterly, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead experts on Twitter:
Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Sam: https://twitter.com/SamuelRines
Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon

Time Stamps
0:00 Start
0:34 CI Futures
1:22 Key themes this week
1:48 Oil for rubles (death of the Dollar?)
3:15 Acceptance of cryptocurrency?
5:34 Petrodollar Petroyuan?
7:32 Rapidly depreciating JPY
10:12 Hawkish Fed and the soaring 5-year
11:58 Housing is done?
13:10 Stimulus for energy
15:53 How hawkish can the Fed go?
17:34 What’s ahead for equity markets?

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The full transcript of this episode is found at https://www.completeintel.com/weekahead/the-week-ahead-21-mar-2022

This week, we saw a Fed rate rise, crude came back from the stratosphere, and Chinese equities came to life.

As we said last week:
- Sam said “watch the 5 and 7 year” bonds, where we saw serious action. - - Sam also said “grip it and rip it” with equity markets.
- Tracy said that dramatic spikes in crude markets were priced out of the market for now
- Albert called for a volatile week thru the Fed meeting, although we didn’t see the lows he’d expected.

Sam walked us through the Fed decision and what’s happening in the bond markets. He also explained a bit more about his “grip it and rip it” comment and where the leaves us.

LME is talking about banning Russian copper on the exchange. What does that mean for global copper markets, as explained by Tracy? We’re also coming off the nickel scandal at the LME. Are there bigger problems with at the LME – mixing politics with markets?

We saw China equity markets perk up this week. KWEB, the China tech ETF, is up over 40% since Monday. What happened, what is Albert watching and what’s coming for Chinese equity markets?

This is the 11th episode of The Week Ahead in collaboration of Complete Intelligence with Intelligence Quarterly, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead experts on Twitter:

Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Sam: https://twitter.com/SamuelRines
Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon

Time Stamps
0:00 Start
0:43 Last week recap
1:26 Fed's rate hike and the bond market
3:00 QT is happening in May?
4:18 What's the point of QT?
5:29 What's happening in the US equity markets?
7:30 $100 to $150 was spent to pump the market?
8:02 Impact on commodities with the rate hikes, QT, etc.
10:00 What "bullish on commodity" means?
10:52 LME to ban Russian copper? What it means for the global market?
12:21 Impact to LME's (and other exchanges') credibility.
16:04 Chinese equity market
17:57 Can we get broader on China market (not just real estate)?
19:10 China markets and the macro perspective
21:37 COVID Zero policy in China
22:55 What to expect for the week ahead?

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The full transcript of this episode is found at

This week, we saw commodities skyrocket then drop off. We saw crude oil hit levels not seen since 2008, with gasoline and home heating prices on everyone’s minds. The nickel market broke the LME. Chinese tech and real estate bloodbath. And – despite all of this - Janet Yellen assured us there will be no recession in the US. Quite a week.

As we said last week:
- Tracy called for commodity price volatility – across sectors
- Downside bias in equities with high volatility. Albert predicted 4200-4250 and pretty much nailed it.
- Sam said a Fed rate rise would become boring and talk of QT would disappear.

This episode we talked about mostly the energy commodities with the continuing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Can the US use other alternatives like the West African oil to replace Russian oil? What's the politics around the Venezuelan oil and why it's just the same as getting the Russian oil? How about uranium -- and can the US produce it and will the conflict affect rare earths? Is this war the reason for the US's inflation? How will inflation actually play with voters in this year's US election? Lastly, what's happening in Chinese tech and real estate and why there's a bloodbath and for how long will this continue?

This is the 10th episode of The Week Ahead in collaboration of Complete Intelligence with Intelligence Quarterly, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead experts on Twitter:

Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Sam: https://twitter.com/SamuelRines
Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon

Time Stamps
0:00 Start
1:12 Intro to markets and last week's recap
2:28 Environment for Russian oil and alternatives (West African oil, etc.)
6:53 Politics around Venezuelan oil
13:12 Uranium - can the US start producing it?
14:07 Impact of Russia-Ukraine war on the availability of rare earths.
14:42 War-driven inflation - is it Russia's fault?
17:20 How is inflation playing with voters?
19:57 Chinese tech stocks and real estate bloodbath?
24:07 China decided that they're going back to coal.
25:05 View for the week ahead

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Everyone's eyes are on the Ukraine-Russia conflict in the past couple of weeks. How do traders make smart decisions in a geopolitically risky environment like this? Tracy Shuchart also explains why the fertilizer market is up 23% last week, what commodities are mostly impacted by the conflict, and how's China's energy relationship with Russia? Sam explains the effects on the emerging marketing of the different sanctions on Russia and why China's exporting deflation is good for the US. Albert elaborates why the conflict is actually a "boom" for China.

This is the ninth episode of The Week Ahead in collaboration of Complete Intelligence with Intelligence Quarterly, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead experts on Twitter:

Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Sam: https://twitter.com/SamuelRines
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon
Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl

1:21 Last Week Ahead Recap
2:34 How traders make decisions in a geopolitically risky environment?
3:25 It's a headline-driven market, and how to trade that?
5:21 Why the fertilizer market is up 23%?
8:00 Commodities that are impacted most by Ukraine-Russia conflict.
10:58 Where do we see wheat topping off?
12:03 Impact of sanctions on Russia on emerging economies.
14:06 Other sources of Russian-grade crude for US refiners.
15:29 China's energy relationship with Russia.
17:43 Perspectives on the CNY
19:50 China exporting deflation is good for the US?
20:21 Ukraine-Russia conflict is a "boom" for China?
21:49 What do you see in markets for the coming week?

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The full transcript of this episode is found at https://www.completeintel.com

Last week's big news is Ukraine and China. So in this episode, we want to talk you through some context and what this means for markets in the near term. First, the guys talked about the most surprising thing that happened and then we moved on to answer a few viewer questions like what's the implication of Russia being disconnected from SWIFT? Will anything change between Europe and China? Will the Russia-Ukraine inspire China to actually invade Taiwan? How disrupted the energy markets will be? And finally, what happens to the world economy - Fed, QE, QT, consumers, etc.?

This is the eighth episode of The Week Ahead in collaboration of Complete Intelligence with Intelligence Quarterly, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead experts on Twitter:

Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Sam: https://twitter.com/SamuelRines
Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon

Time Stamps

0:55 Last Week Ahead Recap
1:30 Most surprising thing that happened in markets
1:55 World War 3?
5:23 Can Ukrainians get resupplied?
5:56 Wheat and Gold
7:15 Is a war good for crypto?
9:25 Energy and commodity markets last week
11:14 What would happen if Russia is out of SWIFT?
12:38 How will Germany pay for its electricity if Russia is out of SWIFT?
15:50 What will happen to Europe and China in terms of trade?
17:49 Russia invading Ukraine enables China's invasion of Taiwan?
21:17 Will this start an energy super cycle?
25:31 Can Europe restock gas supply?
26:41 Fed options now - QE, QT?
29:10 What will happen in the week ahead?

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We have the PPI numbers from the US and China recently and we talked about its impact on the inflation, CPI numbers, and whether it's peaking or not? We also looked at the containership traffic and supply chain changes from China as compared to other locations. And with improvement in global mobility, what does that mean for the oil and energy market? We also discussed volatility and what to expect this week?

This is the seventh episode of The Week Ahead in collaboration of Complete Intelligence with Intelligence Quarterly, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead experts on Twitter:

Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Sam: https://twitter.com/SamuelRines
Nick: https://twitter.com/nglinsman/
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon

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In this week's episode, we look at the CPI numbers from last week, the inflation cycle, and will the Fed stop QE on their Monday meeting? What do you have to expect on the metals market in the longer term? Will the demonstrations around the world push the US to bring out fiscal stimulus again -- and can they? What does this mean to the Democrats on November US Election? And lastly, what you should know to thrive and survive this coming week?

This is the fifth episode of The Week Ahead in collaboration of Complete Intelligence with Intelligence Quarterly, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

For those who prefer to listen to this episode, here’s the podcast version for you.

Follow The Week Ahead experts on Twitter:

Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Sam: https://twitter.com/SamuelRines
Nick: https://twitter.com/nglinsman/
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon

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In this episode, we talked about some really interesting tech earnings like of Facebook and Amazon, crude and natgas prices, and the bond market. How does the NFP data affect the bond market? Also discussed central bank's reaction to inflation and why you should be keeping your eyes on the CPI?

Follow The Week Ahead experts on Twitter:

Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl
Nick: https://twitter.com/nglinsman/
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon

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We’re dissecting Jerome Powell’s latest announcement — what does that mean to markets this coming week? Will we see Powell’s inner Volcker this year? What are we expecting to happen in the energy markets considering the geopolitical risks in Russia and Ukraine? Has the White House and Treasury told the Fed to fight inflation as its top priority?

This is the fourth episode of The Week Ahead in collaboration of Complete Intelligence with Intelligence Quarterly, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead experts on Twitter:

Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd
Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl
Nick: https://twitter.com/nglinsman/
Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon

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S&P is down about 8% from the highs of Jan 4 -- why are we seeing a fall that sharp? Are we nearing the bear market? Why is the Fed standing by and what are they going to do for this coming week? Is a 50 basis point hike realistic in March? Where is the crude heading for the next week and why have natural gas calmed down? And why are gold and copper slightly up this week?

This is the third episode of The Week Ahead for January 24, 2022, in collaboration of Complete Intelligence with Intelligence Quarterly, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week.

Follow The Week Ahead experts on Twitter:

Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd

Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl

Nick: https://twitter.com/nglinsman/

Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon

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This is the second episode of The Week Ahead in collaboration of Complete Intelligence with Intelligence Quarterly, where experts talk about the week that just happened and what will most likely happen in the coming week. Among the topics: industrial metals, energy markets, natural gas, China's flood of liquidity and property market, CNY, and bond market.

Follow The Week Ahead experts on Twitter:

Tony: https://twitter.com/TonyNashNerd

Tracy: https://twitter.com/chigrl

Nick: https://twitter.com/nglinsman/

Albert: https://twitter.com/amlivemon

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Patrick Perret-Green of PPG Macro joins us for a QuickHit episode to reflect what 2022 brings. Patrick got not only the Covid call, but a lot of inflation calls right through the pandemic. As we wrap up 2021, what does he think about right now and how does that set the stage for his view on 2022?

PPG started in 1997 in research where he learned how bank balance sheets work. He also run the strategy for Citi for rates and effects in Asia and at one point worked out in Sydney. And in the past five years now, he’s been focused on the global macro environment.

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This QuickHit episode was recorded on December 16, 2021.

The views and opinions expressed in this The year ahead: What have we learned from 2021? (Part 1) Quickhit episode are those of the guest and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Complete Intelligence. Any contents provided by our guest are of their opinion and are not intended to malign any political party, religion, ethnic group, club, organization, company, individual or anyone or anything.Show Notes

TN: So, Patrick, you’ve got not only the Covid call, you’ve gotten a lot of inflation calls right through the pandemic. And as we wrap up 2021, I guess what I’d really like is, what are you thinking about right now and then how does that set the stage for your view on 2022?

PPG: Well, there’s a whole lot of multiple issues. So I was rewatching Powell’s Q&A this morning. And clearly there is the energy side of things. There is the good side of things, the demand for goods, and they are responsible for big chunks. And I was quite surprised by the ECB’s massive upward revision for inflation for 2022 in the press conference earlier on today. But base effects are very powerful. So we always knew we were going to get peak base effects. We’re going to come in around October, November time. Oil average WTI average below about 39 to $40 last October, November. And by January are up to, or early February, we were early 60s. That base effect will tumble out quite dramatically.

I also think that the durable goods effect is also going to tumble out dramatically. We’ve had record purchases, but I remember talking joking with people last year. It was about the middle of last year, and I was saying I was just as an experiment going on ebay and seeing what I could pick a Peloton up for. So everyone got their Peloton or they bought a flat screen TV. They did the house, they did the kitchen because everyone was at home.

And I think when you look at durable goods purchases in the US and this is chart I’ve posted many times on Twitter. They are off the charts and they’re off the charts relative to disposable income as well, which is now falling. Okay, due to inflation as well. But in the US, we’ve also got this remarkable thing that it’s very different to other countries.

So you look at the UK. We had the employees taken out the other day. We’ve now got more people on payrolls than we had prepandemic. Non-farm payrolls are still down 3.9%. And in Europe employment has been much better. So the great retirement, the great resignation seems to be a US phenomenon.

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Continuing the discussion with Patrick Perret-Green of PPG Macro. This second part focuses on China’s role globally and what it will look like in 2022, especially considering the real estate industry? With the US economy, why is Patrick so skeptical about it recovering and what does the stimulus have to do with that? And what about taper tantrum? Why does he believe it already happened?

Please watch Part 1 here, if you have not already.

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Show Notes

TN: When you look at what’s happening in China domestically, with the economy and with the political structure, I’m also curious about their outward political projection. And I do worry about Northeast Asia. Not just China, but Japan, Korea. And I’m curious, since you have such a historical background, I’m curious what you think about China in terms of political projection, say for 2022. Are you worried that they’re going to become aggressive in ’22?

PPG: Not ’22. You’ve got enough crap on your own doorstep at home without exacerbating the situation. And if you actually look through what’s going on, well, you can read what the Global Times says and things like the Wegar bill is clearly going to cause some short term aggravation. But overall, my sense is over the past few months, we’ve had a more of a nuanced approach that we need to just tone it down a bit, just dampen down the Wolf Warriors a little bit.

TN: They’re getting it.

PPG: You know what I mean? Down the line, ultimately. Clearly, Japan is arming significantly. Australia. We’ve got the whole quad or whatever you want to call it.

TN: Right.

PPG: One of the biggest problems, of course, has been the abject failure of US foreign policy over the past 20 years. So apart from Gulf War 2, worst disastrous war in history ever when we look at the consequences. Then the GFC.

So everyone they’re all focused on various different things. China’s love the vacuum and it’s been able to get away with loads of stuff, And Biden’s foreign policy towards China is not just China, obviously, but other places abject. Much as it irritates, so over here, I told people people, they love ranting about Trump.

Well, presentationally, he was awful. Foreign policy actually was the best foreign policy that came from the US in decades. Well, okay, assisted by people calling the establishment as well.

TN: But. The difference there is it was outcomes based foreign policy. Right. And I think what Americans have forgotten, particularly over the last 30 years, is it’s really been input space, foreign policy, values and other stuff, which is great. But we had, I think, through the probably 50s, a very pragmatic output based foreign policy. What are the outcomes? That’s the objective. And diplomacy school, my graduate work was in diplomacy, they’ve really focused on the other side of the equation with a fuzzy idea of the outcomes.

And I think what Trump brought, like him or hate him, what he brought was a focus on, a dogged focus on the outcomes of foreign policy.

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In this QuickHit episode, we’re joined by Mike Green to talk about what will happen if China invades Taiwan? We’re not saying that China is going to invade Taiwan, but what if it is to happen? What will be the impact to markets?

Mike Green is the chief strategist and portfolio manager for an ETF firm called Simplify Asset Management. They specialize in derivative overlays and derivative structures that modify the traditional market exposures. Their flagship products are things like US equities with downside protection.

His background prior to Simplify, has been in hedge funds for about 15 years and have built an expertise or a degree of renowned for the work that he does in primarily the derivatives and volatility space and have managed traditionally in what’s referred to as a discretionary global macro style. The assets that he purchases or that he monitors exist around the world, including places like China, Taiwan, et cetera.

A lot of the discussions Tony and Mike have had around Taiwan are tied to some geopolitical observations and some dynamics that exist in which Mike played a role less under the Biden administration. But in the prior administration had an advisory capacity to some components of the Department of State and Department of Defense.

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Show Notes

TN: So today we hear or any day, pick a day. We hear that China is invading Taiwan. What are the first things that come to your mind as the news crosses the wires?

MG: Well, I think there’s a couple of things that are really important about the question of is China invading Taiwan, right. And so what we have seen very clearly, and this is fact, not speculation, is a dramatic escalation of China’s incursion on what would traditionally be thought of as Taiwan sovereignty or independence. Right.

We’ve seen a dramatic increase in boats transitioning across the international marine borders. We have seen a dramatic increase in incursion of both fighter jets and bombers into Taiwanese airspace. And in general, the strategy that you see China engaged in is what is typically thought of as a precursor to an invasion. They’re effectively forcing Taiwan to maintain alertness and readiness, which slowly degrades the quality of defenses.

If you have to constantly scramble jets, there’s only so many hours that you can actually have them in the air. There’s only so many hours you can have pilots operating before their capability deteriorates. That is very clearly what is in play here.

Now, it’s an unknown question whether they go to the next step, whether they take what is currently a largely psychological and relative resource advantage to degrade Taiwan’s capabilities, whether they turn that kinetic as compared to hoping for a psychological collapse where Taiwan effectively decides to sue for the best possible deal they can get is unclear.

And I think that’s really what we’re all debating. I mean, China has come out very clearly. Others have made this observation, and it’s not dissimilar to my former employer, Peter Thiel’s observation about Donald Trump, right. That everyone takes him literally, but not seriously. I would flip that on its head. And everyone say everyone takes Xi seriously, but not literally when he says we will reunify with Taiwan in one form or another within the next five years.

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In this second part, Mike Green explains what will happen to Europe if China invades Taiwan. Will the region be a mere audience? Will it be affected or not, and if so, how? How about the Euro — will it rise or fall with the invasion? Also, what will happen to China’s labor in that case, and will Chinese companies continue to go public in the West?

You can watch Part 1 of the discussion here.

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Show Notes

TN: So we have a lot of risk in, say, Northeast Asian markets. We have a lot of risk to the electronics supply chain. I know that this may seem like a secondary consideration. Maybe it’s not.

What about Europe? Does Europe just kind of stand by and watch this happen, or are they any less, say, risky than any place else? Are they insulated? Somehow?

I want to thank everyone for joining us. And please, when you have a minute, please follow us on YouTube. We need those follows so that we can get to the right number to reach more people.

MG: No, Europe exists, I would argue, as basically two separate components. You have a massive export engine in the form of Germany, whose core business is dealing with China and to a lesser extent, the rest of the world. And then you have the rest of Europe, which effectively runs a massive trade deficit with Germany. I’m sorry. Germany is uniquely vulnerable in the same way that the corporate sector is vulnerable in the United States. That supply chain disruption basically means things go away.

They are also very vulnerable because of the Russian dynamic, as we discussed. In many ways, if I look at what’s happened to Germany over the past decade, their actions on climate change and moving away from nuclear, away from coal into solar, et cetera, has left them extraordinarily dependent upon Russian natural gas supplies. It’s shocking to me that they’ve allowed themselves to get into that place. Right.

So my guess is that their reaction is largely going to be determined by what happens with Russia rather than what happens with China. Right. In the same way that Jamie Diamond can’t say bad things about China. Germany very much understands that they can’t say bad things about China.

Europe, to me, is exceptionally vulnerable, potentially as vulnerable as it has ever been in its history. I agree. It has extraordinary… Terrible way to say it. I don’t know any other way to say it, but Europe basically has unresolved civil wars from 1810, the Napoleonic dynamics all the way through to today, right. And everybody keeps intervening, and it keeps getting shoved back down into a false equilibrium in which everyone pretends to get along, even as you don’t have the migratory patterns across language and physical geographic barriers that would actually lead to the type of integration that you have with the United States, right.

Now ironically, the United States are starting to see those dynamics dramatically reduce geographic mobility, particularly within the center of the country. People are becoming more and more set in their physical geographies, et cetera. Similar to the dynamics that you see in Europe, which has literally 100,000 more years worth of Western settlement and physical location, than does the United States. But they’ve never resolved these wars. Right.

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We have a first-time QuickHit guest for this episode, Daniel Lacalle, a well-respected economist, author and commentator. Daniel shares his expertise on the eurozone and European Union. What is happening there in terms of Covid recovery? How does the region compare to other economies like Japan, China, or the USA? Will the ECB follow what the BOJ did? Will there be talks of deflation or inflation in Europe? How about the quantitative easing especially with a possibility of a more conservative ECB chair? Also, will Europe suffer the same power crisis as China and will Europeans be able to absorb inflation?

Daniel Lacalle started his career in the energy business and then moved on to investment banking and asset management. Right now, he’s into consulting and also macroeconomic analysis and teaches in two business schools.

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Show Notes

TN: What are some of Europe’s biggest economic impediments right now? I’m really curious about that. So what do you see as some of their biggest economic impediments.

DL: When we look at Europe, what we have to see from the positive side is that countries that have been at war with each other for centuries get along and they get along with lots of headlines. But they’re getting along sort of in a not too bad way. Good. Yeah, that’s agreed. But it is true that the eurozone is a very complex and a very unique proposition in terms of it’s, not the United States, and it’s not unified nation like China. It’s a group of countries that basically get together under the common denominator of a very strong welfare state. So unlike China or the United States, which were built from different perspectives. In the case of the eurozone, it’s all about the welfare state as the pillar.

DL: From there, obviously, productivity growth, job creation, enterprises, et cetera, are all, let’s say, second derivative of something that is a unique feature of the European Union. No, the European Union is about 20% of the world’s GDP, about 7% of the population, probably. And it’s about 55% of the social spending of the world. So that is the big driver, 7% of the population, 20% GDP, 55% of the government spending in social entitlements.

So that makes it a very different proposition economically than the United States or China. Where is the eurozone right now? The eurozone and the European Union in particular were not created for crisis. It’s a bull market concept. It’s a Bull market agreement. When things go swimmingly, there’s a lot of agreement. But we’ve lived now two crisis. And what we see is that the disparities between countries become wider when there is a crisis, because not everybody behaves in the same manner. Cultures are different. Fiscal views are different. So that is a big challenge. The situation now is a situation that is a bit of an experiment because the Euro has been an incredible success. When I started.

DL: When I started in the buy side, everybody said the Euro is not going to last. And there it is. And it’s the second world reserve currency in terms of utilization, significantly behind the United States. So it’s been a big success. But with that big success comes also a lot of hidden weaknesses. And the hidden weaknesses are fundamentally a very elevated level of debt, a very stubborn government spending environment that makes it very difficult for the European Union and the eurozone to grow as much as it probably could.

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In this QuickHit episode, our guest Julian Brigden answers “What signals are markets missing right now?” How important is the equity market right now in the current economic cycle? Most importantly, how long before we can see directional change in the market, and what you should do before then?

Julian Brigden is based in Colorado and started in the markets in the very late 80s, trading precious metals. He moved into trading FX, then switched into sales for various investment banks. He also worked for a policy consultancy group called Medley Global Advisors in the very late 90s to early 2000s and fell in love with the research space. Just over ten years ago, he set up MI2. MI2 was grown organically. Julian can be seen together with Raul from Real Vision where he does Macro Insider.

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Show Notes

TN: But what is the market missing right now?

JB: We have been on this inflation kick since March of 2020. And initially it was just a trade breakevens, which are a metric of inflation in the bond market had got crushed because they were held by the risk parity boys as their inflation hedge in their portfolios. And they delevered like everyone else did in the spring of 2020. And those things dropped to like, five-year inflation was priced at 50 basis points.

TN: China's PPI are like 14% or something year on year, right?

JB: Exactly. And their PMI price pressure number, which was dropping, just re accelerated. So option number one, that somehow price pressures just miraculously evaporate, doesn't seem like an option. Option number two, the companies eat the price increases. They take them in margins. Well, if that's the case. And this is one of the things the equity market hasn't woken up to, then your assumptions on margin growth are. The good stuff that you can get here in Colorado, right.

JB: Yeah. Exactly. What the hell does this? Do you think Lagarde is going to be able to say, like King Canute, "stop?"

TN: So in one of your interviews that I watched, you said central bank assets and inflation are effectively the same thing. And I think that's really interesting. Can you explain that a little bit?

JB: So the balance sheet? Yeah. Essentially. Look, you print money, which is what it is. QE is printing money. Monetary 101. This is how the Roman Empire ended up falling apart. And you can inflate asset prices because I know this is not how central banks initially told you it worked actually. Having said that, I do love it. And we'll come to this, I think the second point, the markets are missing in a second, and another central banker.

TN: Let me ask you this. And I hear you and I am aligned with what you're saying. The question is, why does it have to do with the equity markets? And my understanding is that it has to do with equity markets because that's where American 401Ks are. And there's such a large baby Boomer cohort with their money in 401Ks that they can't be losing their wealth. Is that the reason why it's always about equity markets?

JB: Well, I mean, I say it's housing as well, right. But they tend to try and deemphasize that one because politically, that can be a bit of a pain in the ass. Right. But look, this is true monetary debasement 101, right? I mean, we wrapped it up in this veneer t

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In this second part, emerging markets expert Michael Nicoletos discussed Turkey and Russia. What are the major issues that Turkey is facing, specially around its FX reserves? They have an energy problem as well, and will soon need to choose between the US and Russia. And how about Russia’s love-hate relationship with Europe? How does Nicoletos see it will end up?

Please watch Part 1 first, if you have not already. Michael talked about China’s household debt and how much is that? Can they ever recover from the Evergrande disaster? And how they got into it in the first place? Is CNY still valuable? How do the Chinese get dollars now with their very limited FX reserve? Should you use the digital Yuan? How much is China spending right now to up its GDP?

Michael Nicoletos have spent most of his life around markets, and used to run a hedge fund for more than 10 years on emerging markets. He shut it down in 2019 to take a sabbatical and Covid 19 hit the world. Now, he is doing a lot of research on emerging markets and trying to see what the next steps will be in terms of the investment world. But in the meantime, he is also advising a few firms on their investment.

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Show Notes:
MN: Turkey faces high inflation. More than 20% rates are around 19% of negative yields. In Turkish Lira, the last ten years, the Turkish GDP has gone up 350%, which is a wow. But if you put it in dollars, it’s not flat, but it’s not something meaningful.

Now, if you look at Turkey and the devaluation, the President of Turkey, Tayyip Erdoğan, has tried to stop the Lira from falling. Right now, it’s I think at its all-time lows around 920 versus a dollar.

But if you look at the FX reserve, let’s say it’s around $18 billion. Now, this is the gross number. If we deduct gold and all the other stuff and we also deduct the swap lines, this number falls around to $20 billion. And this could be negative according to some sources because the dollars are not there.

What has Turkey done? Instead of using its dollars to protect the Lira from falling, they went to the banks and did swap lines with the banks. And the banks are using depositors dollars to buy back the Lira. So depositors right now don’t actually have those dollars in their account.

You have, let’s say, $18 billion of gross FX reserve, and you have $130 billion of short term liabilities, within the next twelve months, Turkey has 130 billion of foreign claims. So again, this metric is not really good. Now, Turkey is estimated to grow around 8 or 9% this year. Again in Turkish Lira.

Another issue is in Turkey, 60% of its current account is energy. They don’t have domestic energy, so they need to import energy.

They don’t want to go to the IMF or the World Bank, but I think at some point they’ll have to go.

And again here geopolitics come to play because Turkey is in NATO. It’s the second biggest force in NATO. The US wants to keep it in NATO because wherever US doesn’t send military, Turkey does. Not many NATO allies send military forces wherever they go.

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The emerging markets expert Michael Nicoletos shares his insights into the Chinese economy and why it’s in a very big trouble?

This is the first part of the discussion. Subscribe to our channel to get notified when Part 2 is out.

In this first part, Michael talked about China’s household debt and how much is that? Can they ever recover from the Evergrande disaster? And how they got into it in the first place? Is CNY still valuable? How do the Chinese get dollars now with their very limited FX reserve? Should you use the digital Yuan? How much is China spending right now to up its GDP?

Michael Nicoletos have spent most of his life around markets, and I used to run a hedge fund for more than 10 years on emerging markets. He shut it down in 2019 to take a sabbatical and Covid 19 hit the world. Now, he is doing a lot of research on emerging markets and trying to see what the next steps will be in terms of the investment world. But in the meantime, he is also advising a few firms on their investment.

Tony Nash met Michael at a Real Vision event in 2019, when he was giving a presentation on China, and he had a chart in there that was actually Michael’s chart. They had a conversation after that and have stayed in touch occasionally since then.

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Show Notes

MN: Well, as we all know, it’s been in the news lately. The Evergrande imminent. I don’t know if it’s going to be a default because there are some discussions right now to find a solution. But either way, it’s very hard for it to be repaid at its face value.

Now, the problem here is twofold. One problem is that China is highly levered as a whole, approximately more than 270% of GDP. The other thing is that real estate is approximately 62 trillion.

So people now are starting to be afraid.

China will be forced to reverse course again. I don’t think you can afford to create a real estate crisis. I don’t think there would be a world contagion, by the way. But I think it could create a spillover effect with other real estate entities.

TN: When you say it’s an input number. What do you mean in simple terms?

MN: In simple terms if the government wants 7% growth, so everyone will do the best they can to achieve that 7% growth, no matter what.

What do I mean? If I build a bridge, when I build a bridge, this is counted in the GDP growth. Now, if I destroy the bridge, that is not deducted by the GDP. Right? If I rebuild the bridge, it’s added again. So in theory, you could make one bridge, build it, destroy it, build it, destroy it. And you would only have growth.

TN: You’re famous for kind of calculating for every say CNY spent by the Chinese government, it results in X amount of GDP, right? There used to be a multiplier effect to CNY spent and GDP. But you started seeing as that was diluted.

MN: So your viewers can understand because it’s a bit technical. So let’s assume you’re an economy and you create debt. You want that debt to create more GDP than the debt you’re giving. So if you’re giving one unit of debt, you want that one unit of debt to create one point of GDP.

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This special QuickHit Cage Match edition is joined by opposing sides of inflation versus deflation with Steven van Metre and Peter Boockvar. Why one thinks we’re having deflation and the other believes in inflation? How soon will this happen and to which commodities and industries?

This is the first part of the discussion. Part 2 is out. Watch it here.

Steven van Metre is a money manager who have invented a strategy called Portfolio Shield. He also has a YouTube show that discusses economic data and the news three days a week.

Peter Boockvar is the Chief Investment Officer and portfolio manager at Bleakley Advisory Group. He has a daily macromarket economic newsletter called The Boock Report.

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Show Notes:

PB: So if we just break down, inflation is just the simple, too much money chasing too few goods. We certainly have too few goods with supply challenges around the world and too much money with a lot of fiscal spending over the past 18 months financed by the Federal Reserve buying most of that debt that the treasury issued to finance a lot of this fiscal spending.

SVM: I think that the inflation story is going to be more, at least the former Fed’s view of being on the transitory side, and I take that view strictly from my understanding of how the monetary system works, looking at the velocity of money, the fiscal stimulus cliff going away.

TS: Where do you see inflation, deflation hitting the soonest and the hardest? We’re looking at commodities that are still running very hot, supply chains that are very stressed. At what point do you think we see demand destruction?

PB: Well, we’re already seeing some demand responses. We are seeing a slowdown in economic growth. Part of that is a pushback against these price increases. If you look at the housing market, there’s particularly the first time home buyer that has sticker shock and doesn’t want to pay for a home that’s priced 20% more than it was a year ago. And they’re saying, okay, let me take a pause here.

Now, at some point, goods, inflation is going to be temporary. The question is, how long does it take to resolve itself?

There’s going to be a fiscal fall up next year to some extent. We’ll see how much of the lost transferred payments are going to be offset by both the child tax money, plus people going back to work.

You take lumber, for example, and I’ll give it to Steve right after this, lumber prices in the heart of the housing bubble in the mid 2000s was about $300. Now it went up to $1600 now it’s about 650.

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This is Part 2 of the inflation discussion with Steven van Metre and Peter Boockvar with your host Tracy Shuchart. In this second part, they talked about the possibility of the Fed tapering this year or early in 2022. How about the possible rate hike and what will possibly happen in other parts of the world like Bank of Japan and Bank of England if ever this happens? What is Powell doing exactly and why? Is there a possibility of a new Fed chair next year? And what do they think about stagflation?

For Part 1 of this QuickHit Cage Match episode, please go here.

Steven van Metre is a money manager who have invented a strategy called Portfolio Shield. He also has a YouTube show that discusses economic data and the news three days a week.

Peter Boockvar is the Chief Investment Officer and portfolio manager at Bleakley Advisory Group. He has a daily macromarket economic newsletter called The Boock Report.

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Show Notes:

TS: Do you see the Fed tapering? And if they do, how much is this going to affect inflation?

PB: I think the Fed will at least start the taper and see how it goes. The thing that is different with this taper is that it’s coinciding with central banks around the world that are also beginning to remove accommodation.

So if the Fed starts to taper in December, which they basically told you that they will, well, the Bank of England could be raising rates in December.

But to Steve’s point about the bottom 50%. Well, if you get a short equity market correction, well, the top 50% is going to feel that as well.

SVM: I don’t think the Fed’s going to do it.

Well, there’s part of the inflation story that almost nobody is looking at. What if the dollar gets up into 96, 97, maybe even close to 100? I mean, we’re talking about destroying the inflation story just from the dollar alone.

PB: The whole purpose of monetary policy is to push the demand side. And if you look at what are the two most interest rate sensitive parts of the economy — it’s housing and autos.

SVM: All we’re debating is, at what point does he back off and quit because he realizes it’s not working? I mean, we can look at the velocity of money and see the monetary policy is not functioning properly.

PB: The Fed has been winging it for decades, and this all goes back to Greenspan.

Then you throw in, of course, the whole social justice. The Feds become the Ministry of Social Justice now and how they view monetary policy. But yeah, to your point, they are winging it. And they’ve been winging it for decades.

SVM: When Powell said, “We’re going to gradually unwind the balance sheet by mid 2022.” I’m like, since when is “gradual” six months. There’s no way this is going to work for you, buddy, but good luck if you’re going to pull it off.

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This QuickHit episode is joined by central bank and monetary policy expert Brent Johnson. He talks about inflationists versus deflationists and what makes these camps different in a time of a pandemic. What’s monetary velocity? And why banks are failing at their job, and why they’re not lending anymore money? Also discussed China and when supply chain issues will be resolved.

Brent Johnson is the CEO and founder of Santiago Capital, a wealth management firm. He works with about a dozen different families and individuals customizing wealth management solutions for them. He does that through a combination of separately managed accounts and private funds, also invest in outside deals, private deals, venture capital funds, and others. Brent have a focus on macro and loves the big picture.

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Show Notes:

TN: You said if you believe an additional QE is on the way, you are secretly a deflationist. If you believe in the taper, you are secretly in the inflation camp. Cause and effect. Can you kind of talk through that with us and help us understand what you mean by that?

BJ: The point I was trying to get across in this particular tweet is that central banks are a reactive agency. They are not the cause. They are the effect. Now their policies can cause things to happen, but they are reacting to what they see in the market.

TN: Pull this apart for me, "Inflation is ever and always a monetary function." Can you talk us through that and is this time different? What are the considerations around inflation this time?

BJ: I understand the argument that those in the inflationary camp are making. And it would be hard to sit here and say we haven’t seen inflationary effects for the last twelve months. Prices have risen. The question is what comes next. And I think what I would say with regard to the quote was that monetary velocity is constant. And so you’ve seen these huge rises in the monetary base.

TN: “Negative velocity of money.” What does that mean?

BJ: What it essentially means is that new credit is not being created. And so the system is contracting. And this is really the key to it all. It’s the key to the way the monetary system is designed. It’s the key to the way it functions. And it’s the key to whether we’re going to have inflation or deflation next.

TN: What you’re essentially saying is that banks are failing as a transmission mechanism. So the government has had to become the transmission mechanism because banks aren’t doing what their job should be. Is that true?

BJ: That’s a very good way of putting it.

TN: Why? Why are banks not the transmission mechanism that they should be?

BJ: But I would argue that they don’t want to make a loan because believe it or not, banks don’t want to rely on getting bailed out, and they don’t want to make a loan where they are not going to get their money back. So banks aren’t in the business of going out and making a loan and having and default on them. They want to get their money back.

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Richard Lichtenstein of Bain & Company joins us this week to talk about advanced analytics. What is it actually and how can companies and private equity firms use this to make better business decisions? He also shares some B2C and B2B examples and use cases. Also, what are some common barriers for companies to incorporate advanced analytics to their toolset?

Richard Lichtenstein is an expert partner at Bain & Company in New York. He has been at Bain for 17 years and he leads their efforts around advanced analytics and private equity. To get in touch with Richard, please email him at Richard.Lichtenstein@bain.com.

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Show Notes

TS: For people that might not be familiar with advanced analytics or what that entails, can you kind of give us an overview of what this encompasses?

RL: At Bain & Company, we have a team of over 50 people that thinks about just how can we use advanced analytics to serve private equity. We've got a bunch of people scouring the world trying to find the latest and greatest and interesting data sources that we can use. Then we have teams of data cleaners. Then we have a group of data scientists who are building Python libraries. Then we have a group that takes that output and builds ways to automatically turn that in slides or into tableau so that we can get that in front of clients quickly in a form that brings out the insights.

And then lastly, we have some people who just help other people at Bain figure out how to use all this stuff.

TS: Can you give us some of your use cases, maybe go into a little bit more detail?

RL: So in a way, it's quite different for B2B and B2C, but both of them have a lot of good advanced analytics examples.

We've done some work recently with a fast food restaurant chain. And they're trying to figure out why are we losing share? We were able to see well among people who are going to your restaurant less often or stopped going, a lot of them were going to Chick-Fil-A. And this isn't a restaurant that sells chicken. So they hadn't really thought of them as a competitor. But they are. And that was news to them.

TS: You wrote a piece last year on like Wayfair and how they used advanced analytics to understand that it was like on the precipice of rapid growth. So what kind of other data or companies using to better understand their market?

RL: Yeah. The Wayfair analysis was really quite interesting. So it's a great example here. So that's. And in that case, it was understanding the customer behavior that we were seeing. This was early in COVID, right before the huge spike that we all know now happened. And we were just seeing people coming to Wayfair for the first time. We had never been there before, buying stuff. We were seeing people coming back with great retention.

TS: Have you found any big issues for companies using advanced analytics like it's hard to access data. It seems fairly sophisticated. So is there a barrier to understanding this kind of data and how it's presented?

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China expert Chris Balding joins us this week for #QuickHit to discuss “What China is thinking right now?” What is the state of the Chinese economy? Are they really doing well in Covid? How about the deleveraging process, is that even real? And what’s happening to CNY? Also talked about are the politics around China especially how it relates to Afghanistan.

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This QuickHit episode was recorded on August 24, 2021.Show Notes

TN: I’m really curious your view on the state of the Chinese economy right now. And what are Chinese economic planners thinking right now as they kind of potentially go into year two of Covid.

CB: So I think there is a couple of highlights out of the Chinese economy. First of all is that they’ve resorted to the pretty similar playbook that they go back to every year, which is pump credit, pump construction and infrastructure type spending.

Generally speaking, the rule is, if there’s a debate about whether or not they’re going to unleash credit growth, I would definitely take the over.

TN: So one of the interesting things you mentioned is that you said that they expended credit in the early part of this year. But what I read from investment banks and what I’ve read from other people who look at China is that China just underwent this big deleveraging process. Is that real?

CB: It’s tough to understand the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics and PBOC’s math as to how they arrived at that, because if you’re just running more generalized numbers, it’s very clear that debt at all levels has continued to outpace GDP.

TN: Do you see ongoing port capacity issues related to COVID? Is that something that you’re kind of concerned about?

CB: I think that is something that you’re going to be seeing for definitely the foreseeable future. And I should say it’s not just China. You’re seeing a lot of this in other parts of the world.

One of the debates in the United States right now is transitory or structural inflation. And I think, not to be capping out on the issue, but I do think it is kind of a mix of both.

TN: So it seems like regardless of the kind of official policy, whether it’s trade policy or just say public health policy, it looks like more of this regionalization is happening. Does that make sense to you?

CB: Yeah, absolutely. I mean, look, nobody is going to announce that they’re leaving China for many reasons. But you do absolutely see a spread of manufacturing capabilities.

TN: What’s the thought behind the elevated CNY?

CB: First of all, they have been running during Corona pretty significant surpluses. The United States has exports to China and other parts of the world have declined, not insignificantly or remained flat as we’re importing a lot more.

I think also the dollar has gone into a specific range. And the way that I think of the CNY is it’s basically just a reverse USD tracker.

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Companies are saying that the Q3 revenues will be down a bit. What’s really happening and how long will this last? Chief Economist for Avalon Advisors, Sam Rines, and a returning guest answers that with our first-time guest Marko Papic, the chief strategist for Clocktower Group.

In addition, both the Michigan Consumer Sentiment and the NY Manufacturing survey down as well. Watch what the experts are seeing and what they think might happen early in 2022.

Watch Part 2 here.

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Show Notes:
TN: Are we at a turning point? What’s really happening and how long do you expect it to last?

MP: The bull market has been telling us that we were going to have an intra cyclical blip. And there’s, like, really three reasons for this. One, the expectations of fiscal policy peaked in March. Two Chinese have been engaged in deleveraging, really, since the end of Q4 last year, and that started showing up in the data also. And then the final issue is that the big topic right now is something we’ve been focused on for a while, too, which is this handover from goods to services.

TN: Right. Sam, what are you seeing and what do you think?

SR: Yeah, I’ll jump in on the third point that Marko made, which is that handoff from services or from goods to services. That did not go as smoothly as was planned or as thought by many.

Part of that is probably the Delta variant.

The treasury market is telling us we’re not exactly going to a 4% growth rate with elevated inflation. It’s telling us we’re going to something between Japan and Germany at this point.

TN: I’m a bit worried about sticky sentiment where we have this Delta variant or other expectations, and they remain on the downside, even if there are good things happening. Do you guys share those worries, or do you think maybe the Michigan survey was a blip?

SR: I don’t think it was a blip at all. I think what people should be very concerned about at this point is what the next reading is. That reading did not include the collapse of Afghanistan.

Again, it’s kind of like Covid. It might not affect the economy much. It’s going to affect the psyche of America significantly as we move forward.

TN: It would be remarkable. Marko, what do you think about that?

MP: I’m betting the 10-year is going to be closer to 2%. He’s betting it’s going to be closer to 1%. So he’s been winning for a long time, but we settled the bet January 1, 2022.

The first three things I’m looking at is, as I said, there are reasons that the bond market has rallied. And I think a lot of these reasons were baked in the cake for the past six months, or at least since March.

The first and foremost is China. And China is no longer deleveraged.

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In this second part, Sam and Marko discussed about possible tapering, what can the government do to help private companies, how the consumer sentiment is looking right now, what should you do with your investment in this Delta variant scare? Are vaccines really effective? And what is this thing that the Biden administration needs to do right or they’ll be dead?

Please go here for the first part.

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Show Notes:

TN: It sounds to me like you believe that there will be the beginning of a taper, maybe a small beginning of a taper late this year. Is that fair to say?

SR: Yeah, I think it’s fair to say that there will be some form of taper.

TN: So even if it say 10 billion a month, which is nothing compared to the entire kind of stimulus, monetary stimulus are doing right now, that would have a dramatic sentimental chain. Is that your view?

SR: Yes. So it’s all about that incremental change in Cinnamon. It’s not about the incremental change in the addition to the portfolio.

TN: Right. Marko, are you the same?

MP: I think tapering happened in June at the FRC meeting because that’s when the Fed incrementally turned hawkish. The DXY dropped quite significantly after the meeting. And while oil prices and S&P 500 haven’t really corrected to this view reality.

TN: How are you seeing these policies or how do you expect these policies to manifest at the company level? And when do you expect them to help companies to move forward?

MP: Well, I don’t think any policies will help companies. I think what will help companies is once Covid cases go down, and people kind of stop being afraid of the Delta wave.

TN: Texas right now has the same number of cases that it had in Feb of ’21. Okay. But the daily fatalities are 60% lower than they were in Feb. That’s good news, right.

MP: Look, Tony, I would study really the case of Israel, because if you study the overall numbers in Israel, you come up with a figure. I think it’s 60% effectiveness for Pfizer.

So you can’t just average everyone together. The actual vaccine efficacy is in the 90s for all cohorts.

You know where I want to compare Covid to? And I think Sam will appreciate this. I compared it to the Euro area crisis.

TN: That’s a good call. I like that. I like the optimism there, and I like the perspective there. I think that’s really interesting. Sam, what do you think?

SR: I think there’s a combination of two things. One, I think Marco is 100%, right? That this is an awful lot like the Euro area crisis.

I think there’s going to continue to be ripples this time around. And the question is in my mind, it’s really difficult to predict what people sentiment around those ripples are going to be.

The real question is, how does the American consumer mindset, how does that actually grasp this ripple to move through it? And how does China react? How does Europe react?

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This is a special QuickHit Cage Match edition with returning guest Albert Marko, and joining us for the very first time Andreas Steno Larsen to talk about tapering. Will the Fed taper this year? If yes, when, how, and why? If no, why not? Also discussed are the housing market, China GDP, and corporate earnings.

Andreas is the chief global strategist at Nordea Bank, which is mostly a Nordic bank, but has a presence in large parts of Europe, but also in the US. He speaks on behalf of the bank on topics surrounding global markets and in particular bond markets.

Albert Marko is a consultant for financial firms and high net worth individuals trying to navigate Washington, DC and what the Fed and Congress are up to.

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Show Notes:

TN: What is your position? Why do you think it’s going to happen? When do you think it’s going to happen?

ASL: Well, I think tapering is right around the corner, and the basic reason is that I expect marked sequential improvements in the labor market in the US over the coming two or three quarters.

So my base case is a decision taken in September and then an implementation starting already in December this year. And I expect them to be done already during the first half of next year with the tapering process.

TN: When you say explosion the labor market, you mean more people coming into the market?

ASL: Yeah. And they come into the market and fill these job openings right now, we have a low labor market mobility due to a lot of temporary factors. And once they’re gone, then we should expect employment to be almost running at full speed before New Years.

AM: I would agree with him in the old days. But we are in a situation where these tapering assumptions are based on Fed rhetoric and the public comments that they’ve been making specifically addressing his unemployment boost or surge.

We still have COVID lockdown patchwork across the world happening at the moment.

China’s GDP looks like it’s not going to surpass two or 3% for the next 4-5 quarters. Where the United States going to get inventory for the holiday season and have this boost in employment surge that we usually get on holiday season.

TN: Let’s say it doesn’t happen in September. What is the Fed thinking through and what mechanisms do they have to use instead of a taper?

ASL: China is slowing massively. But I actually find it very interesting that the Federal Reserve is now even more behind the curve when it comes to its reaction function compared to earlier cycles.

China has another wave of restrictions that will lead to renewed supply chains disruptions across the globe. And again, we will have a wave of supply side inflation.

What they have in sort of the toolbox ahead of September is obviously that they could hint that the interest rate path further out could be hiked.

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Part 2 of the Fed and ECB Playbooks discussion is here with Albert Marko and Nick Glinsman. In this second part, the housing and rent market in the US, UK, Australia, etc. was tackled. Also, do we really need a market collapse or correction right now? And discover the “sweet spot” for the Fed to “ping pong” the market. When can we see 95 again? What is the Fed trying to do with the dollar? And what currencies in the world will run pretty well in a time like this?

Go here for Part 1 of the discussion.

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Show Notes

TN: Can you walk us through a little bit of your kind of reasoning and what you’re thinking about with regard to the Fed and housing?

NG: Well, I actually think, it was, I was watching Bloomberg TV as they ask after the Fed comments from me, well, you know, maybe the Fed’s right because the lumber has collapsed. Right. Lumber’s in an illiquid market, takes one player and you can move that price 5 to 10 percent.

I think there’s a couple of things that lead the Fed in the wrong direction. First of all, the mortgage backed securities QE, that really isn’t necessary.

I think they focused on cost of new housing. My view is the slowdown that we will get on new homes is purely a function of supply of goods used to make homes, where essential supply.

AM: Rent is a problem. The other thing I want to point out is there’s a disconnect because it’s not just one housing market in the United States. Because of Covid, the migration from north to southern states has really jumbled up some of the figures.

NG: People have been incentivized effectively to be in related markets to the collective real hard assets in this environment. I mean, I would argue that part of Bitcoin’s rise is because, in fact, it’s a collectible. Limited supply.

TN: So what can the Fed do about it?

NG: Become a commercial banker in terms of policy. In the U.K., there was certain lending criteria for corporates that were imposed during the crisis that actually did help.

AM: They can also raise rates if they want to be cheeky.

TN: Yeah, but then it’s not just real estate that collapses. It’s everything, right?

AM: Maybe it needs to be collapsed. Because, what are we buying here? We’re buying stuff, we’re buying equities that are 30, 40 percent above what they were pre-Covid. It’s just silly at this point.

TN: We’ve seen a lot of interesting things happening with the dollar, with the euro, with the Chinese yen. And so I’d really like to understand the interplay of how you see the Fed and the ECB with the value of the dollar and the euro. Albert, you said, you know, the ECB really has no control or very little control over the euro because of what the Fed does. So what is the Fed trying to do with the dollar?

AM: Nick and I had wrote a two-page piece on the dollar’s range of ninety one to ninety three. And that seems to be the sweet spot for them, where they can ping pong the markets and drop the Russel a little bit, promote the Nasdaq and then vice versa and go back and forth like that.

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Geopolitics experts Albert Marko and Nick Glinsman are back on QuickHit for a discussion on the Federal Reserve, the ECB, and central banks. What are they thinking right now? This is hosted by Complete Intelligence.

Albert Marko advises financial firms and some high net worth individuals on how politics works in D.C.. He worked with congressional members and their staff for the past 15 to 20 years. In his words, Albert basically is a tour guide for them to figure out how to invest their money.

Nick Glinsman is the co-founder and CIO of EVO Capital LLC. He does a lot of writing and some portfolio management. He was a macro portfolio manager in one of the big micro funds in London for quite a few years. Prior to that, Nick was with Salomon Brothers. Now, he concentrates on providing key intel, both economics and politics on a global level to finance managers and politicos.

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Show Notes:

TN: What the Fed and the ECB thinking about right now and what are some of the biggest dilemmas they have?

NG: I think they've lost their independence to a large extent. Harder for the ECB to lose its independence. But with the commission, you have that loss.

So treasury in the US, commission in Europe. Bank of England is a slight exception about to happen, but we can cover that later.

And even Bill Dudley's commented on Today suggesting that a lot more work needs to be done to ensure that the normal functioning of the plumbing behind the form of safe assets.

So it's clear to me that things are being worked on in a politically coordinated way that impacts monetary policy.

And forecasting that's a whole 'nother bad area for the... Fed's forecasts are terribly wrong. The ECB's forecasts have been wrong for, you know, since time immemorial.

The ECB is more dangerous because they have a bias that keeps them on their policy's wreck.

TN: So first on forecasts, if any central bankers are watching, I can help you with that. Second, when you say they don't believe in the business cycle anymore, do you mean the central banks or do you mean the political folks?

NG: The central banks and government. Economic data was pretty bad back at the beginning of the 80s. That. No way, no politician is prepared to accept that anymore.

TN: So this is kind of beyond a Keynesian point of view, because even Keynesians believed in a business cycle, right?

NG: It's a traditional Keynesian point of view. The modern day, neo Keynesian, yes, you're right. Way beyond what they're thinking.

TN: Albert. Can you tell us both Fed and ECB, what are they thinking about right now?

AM: The ECB is not even a junior player right now in the central bank world. The fact is, that it's completely insolvent. Besides the Germans and maybe the French in some sectors, there's nothing else in Europe that's even worth looking at at the moment.

As for the ECB's standpoint, you know, they're still powerless. I mean, the Federal Reserve makes all the policy.

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