Breakaway: Recent Episodes
Sean Hathaway
Breakaway from the haters and mainstream thought. Understand the business environment and make money investing. Uncertainty in the markets driven by viruses, anarchy, politics and craziness is simply opportunity. Facts and truth here.
Life
Yoga life.
- College admissions:
- Tulane:
- Tuition and Fees: $69k
- Housing: $11k.
- Meals: $8k
- Books: $1k
- Total: $88,000. * 4 = $352,000
- Wow. College can be very expensive!
Diddy
https://youtu.be/NKMtZm2YuBE?si=irc0uxpLLHbHpBjE&t=53
What’s up with Diddy?
- His fashion label, Sean John. Not a bad name
- The rapper is “going to fight this with all of his energy and all of his might,” and during a court hearing argued that the so-called freak-offs — marathon sexual productions that prosecutors say involved hired sex workers and women coerced to perform sexual acts for the gratification of Combs and others — were consensual, if unconventional. “Is it sex trafficking?” he asked in court last week. “No, not if everybody wants to be there.”
- Lot’s of tapes recordings. So be careful if you go to a sex party. Know you’re getting recorded. Be cool with it.
- authorities say they seized “more than 1,000 bottles of baby oil and lubricant
Any similarities to Epstein here?
Markets
Everything is up. S&P 500 up 20% YTD.
As a reminder: 10%: Double in 7 years. 7% double in 10 years.
What is PE or Price to Earnings? PE definition and explanation
- When you make an investment and pay cash you’re looking to receive more cash ultimately than you put in.
- Price to Earnings Ratio.
- Value of company; i.e. Market Cap. Divided by Earnings (12 months).
- Example:
- Company is valued at $100m. Earns $5m per year. PE = 20.
- Could think of it as 20 years to get your money back thru earnings.
Cape Ratio
Cape Ratio (like PE) average of top 500 US Companies since 1950 is about 20. Now it is at 35. Seems high right? Don't be surprised if there is a 10-20% correction in next 6-12 months.
NY Mayor
Didn’t toe the line and he is paying the price.
Eric Adams indicted.
Bill Ackman explains.
Eric Speech
FAA Hates SpaceX
- Rep. Kiley Questions FAA Administrator Michael Whitaker at T&I Committee Hearing
- SpaceX letter refuting everything the FAA administrator said.
- Let them launch for crying out loud.
Tesla Stock Booming
I somehow got invited to Tesla AI event!?
Meta
Orion Glasses
Netflix
All time high. Still the best pure streaming play.
Southwest
- No more open seating and adding premium seating!
Recommendations:
- Instigators on Apple TV
- Chamath on Joe Rogan.
Personal
- Yoga
- Golf Lesson
Markets
- S&P500 up 20%
- VGT up 19%
- Dividends/value up 11%. 3.36% yield
BTW: 5 years ago you buy
- VGT: you’re up 2.7x. $100k = $270k
- VOO: up 2x = $200k
- At 7% annualized return = double in 10 years.
- At 10% annualized return = double in 7 years.
- At 20% annualized return = double in 4 years
- Fed just cut by 0.5%. First cut since 2020. I.e. Covid.
- Current federal-funds rate is at 5.25% to 5.50%,
- Expect 0.75% of cuts in 2024. Meeting Sept 18. 2 more this year.
- 2.00% to 2.25% by year-end 2026.
So what does this mean?
- Money Market lower returns.
- Mortgage rates should come down.
- Car loans down. Good for Tesla.
Government Debt per WSJ
According to recent data, interest expense currently makes up around 13% of the US government budget, representing the third largest spending category behind Social Security and Medicare.
Demand for AI
Listen to Larry Ellison explaining the crazy demand for AI.
Netflix:
- All time high.
- I still think its recession proof!
- Seems like Q4 subscription #’s should be HUGE! WHY?
- New events: Boxing: Tyson and Jake Paul
- The fight, which will be held over eight two-minute rounds, will now take place on November 15 at the At&T Stadium in Texas.Tyson, 58 is 30 years older than Jake.
- Squid game: Squid Game Season 2 will premiere on Dec. 26, Most-watched series: Squid Game became Netflix's most-watched series and the most-watched program in 94 countries.
- NFL Football x-mas. On Dec. 25, 2024, we’ll be the global home of the NFL’s two Christmas Day marquee games:
Tesla
- Tesla Semi: PepsiCo drivers love it. PepsiCo said today that their drivers who operate the company's Tesla Semi trucks have reported that, after driving the electric truck, they don't want to go back to driving a diesel truck.
Elon on All In Podcast Summit
- 15:40 on Fresh Water dumping and $140k fine.
- Inspiration.
- Uncrewed landing to Mars in 2026
- Crews in 2028 if successful (and if government gets out of way).
Recommendations:
- All In - Megyn Kelly
- All In - John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs. Univ of Chicago and Columbia.
- All In - Interview with Dave Portnoy
- Napoleon on Apple.
Trump & Kamala Debate: Boring and horrible. Name calling. Accusations. Nothing interesting or intelligent.
Markets:
- YTD: S&P up 16%.
- Tech (QQQ) up 15%.
- High Quality up 10%.
Building Wealth for your kids:
My Blog analysis on Building wealth for kids.
- 529s and Roth 401k.
- Small investments over time create generational wealth.
Nvidia
- $3t market cap. $30b revenue/qtr. $28b in cashflow.
- Mgmt style: Jensen Huang on Working.
Government vs Capitalists:
- All in at 56.30: Friedberg: Do you want someone who has lived in government or is not a government operative? Career civil servants vs. capitalists.
- 1.17.40. Government spending is 50% of GDP. So could say ½ of people are employed directly or indirectly by government. Free market system is finished if there are more “takers” than “makers”.
Government Efficiency (oxymoron):
Donald Trump on Government efficiency commission:
From WSJ: Trump Proposes 15% Tax Rate for Some Companies and a Role for Elon Musk in Government
Elon Musk has said that all laws/regs should be auto-repealed after 20 years or some time. Otherwise we’re in a web of bureaucracy.
Getting a Loan from DOE is near impossible. I have a story.
Tesla
Tesla Robotaxi day on October 10.
SpaceX
The company confirmed that the SpaceX Crew Dragon spacecraft carrying the crew reached its peak altitude of 1,400.7 kilometers (870 miles).
That distance surpassed the record set by NASA’s 1966 Gemini 11 mission
Also!!! 60 day delay for Starship launch.
- “Unfortunately, we continue to be stuck in a reality where it takes longer to do the government paperwork to license a rocket launch than it does to design and build the actual hardware,” the firm said. “This should never happen and directly threatens America’s position as the leader in space.”
- https://www.spacex.com/updates/
Nuclear Power imperative by Bill and Brad.
Recommendations:
Bryson DeShambeau on YouTube:
- Breaking 50. With Tony Romo (64 is his lowest round). Eagled 1st hole!!
Podcasts:
- Smartless interview with Michael Keaton.
- Rogan Actors
- Russel Crowe
- Dennis Quaid
TV: Wyatt Earp on Netflix.
Yacht sinks:
- Living the dream. Anchored off Sicily coast in late summer. Storm sinks you in early morning. Dead.
- 15 people rescued, including 1 year old girl.
- 6 dead. 5 found in sunken boat.
- 184ft $35m yacht.
- 165 ft deep. In tact.
Investments and Markets
- Markets booming. year-to-date
- S&P: 20%
- Tech: 18%
- Div: 14%
- Bitcoin up 40%!
- Netflix up 44%.
Netflix!
- All time high. $700.
- Jake Paul, Tyson, Squid. NFL.
- Excited for Wyatt Earp.
Mag 7:
- I can’t think of a reason to bet against any of these?
- Apple: all i use
- Microsoft: embedded in every corporation (redwood).
- Nvidia: Years ahead of competition.
- Meta: Open source AI.
- Google: Break it up! Worth more!
- Amazon: Only place I buy from.
- Tesla: Robot in my kitchen prepping my coffee and other beverages. (10 years).
- Ford has said its EV business is on pace to lose about $5 billion this year. In the three-month period ended in June, the automaker lost about $44,000 on every electric vehicle that it sold.
- is canceling plans for a large electric sport-utility vehicle and expects to take $1.9 billion in related special charges and write-downs, as automakers continue adjusting their EV plans because of softer-than-expected demand.
The AI Race:
Politics and Govt Policy
- Policies. Friedberg on Price fixing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xA5B6quoahY
- 1:06:35
- Biggest problem with both parties is excessive spending to please big money backers and constituents.
- Milton Friedman on spending: Nobel Prize-winning economist: https://x.com/icannot_enough/status/1824411533671080335?s=51&t=YUkdoBz4yNifBaQlQUp3-g
- Where is Kamala.
- Obama at DMC speech. Pretty dynamic.
- Trump on Theo Von vs Trump on X-spaces with Elon. All in Podcast
- Talked a lot about drugs and alcohol.
- Trump has never smoked or drank alcohol. Pretty remarkable. Brotherly advice (me on the otherhand…)
Saving for your kids:
- Probably need $250,000. Rule of 7&7. $7000/yr at 7% over ~18 years.
- Roth IRA. Brokerage Account.
Retirement Strategies:
- My simplest rule is $5m. Why? Most people can live pretty good on that. 5% return, $250k/year.
- Age 45 have $1m. Double in 7 and again 7: at 60 you’re at $4m.
- Very stressful when you don’t have an income.
Recommendations:
- Work your ass off.
- Hit the gym every day; or at least break a sweat.
- Dinner with kids.
Life updates:
- 20 years of marriage!!
- Cost Rica
Why talk about Politics and government?
- Has a profound effect on business.
- U-Haul Announces Top Growth States of 2023
- Texas netted the largest number of movers in one-way U-Haul® equipment in 2023, marking the third consecutive year it has finished atop the U-Haul Growth Index.
- U-Haul Announces Top Growth States of 2023
“Government has three primary functions. It should provide for military defense of the nation. It should enforce contracts between individuals. It should protect citizens from crimes against themselves or their property. When government-- in pursuit of good intentions tries to rearrange the economy, legislate morality, or help special interests, the cost come in inefficiency, lack of motivation, and loss of freedom. Government should be a referee, not an active player.”― Milton Friedman
Example: Contained within the 2021 infrastructure bill, the Broadband Equity Access and Deployment (BEAD) program authorized more than $42 billion in grants, to "connect everyone in America to reliable, affordable high-speed internet by the end of the decade."
- Not one single household connected.
- Starlink could do now for a fraction of the cost. Its entirely obvious.
- Among several examples, the senators noted that NTIA's BEAD proposal "requires subgrantees to prioritize certain segments of the workforce, such as 'individuals with past criminal records' and 'justice-impacted […] participants.'"
- Bill Gurley and Brad Gurstner on FCC
Ben and Mark Show: Key Silicon Valley leaders turning on Democratic policies. They have Billions $ at stake and do not want to talk about politics, but its paramount to the future of tech and innovation in the US.
- Technology, Economy and Military.
- For example:
- Regulatory agencies have been green lit to use brute force investigations, prosecutions, intimidation, and threats to hobble new industries, such as Blockchain and Artificial Intelligence.
- Energy: Europe is the ghost of xmas future. Need to be energy independent!
- Tax: Structure! Unrealized Gains! – Not rate discussion.
Trump vs. Kamala?
Kamala policies>
- Trump:
- Capitalist and pro-business. Freedom of speech.
- Reasonable border policy.
- No more forever wars.
- Supports independent energy.
- Tough on crime. Not even tough, but basic security.
Tesla
- AI, Robotics and Energy.
- Real-world AI. Explain. Not LLM
- Cars and Optimus.
- Battery and Solar manufacturing.
Stocks and Economy
- Market Correction.
- On Monday the 3rd day of “down”. Market down 8-9%, Tech 13%, Nvidia 28%:
- CAPE at 35. Since 2000 Average is 27.
Recommendations.
- All In podcast with Trump.
- Rogan and Jordan Peterson
- Andreesen Horowitz.
- Presumed Innocent. - Apple
- Your Honor - Netflix (airplane qualification)
- Land of Bad - Netflix (airplane)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bl7IqyEyqhY
Apr 22.
Wow. Been awhile. Volleyball. Mexico.
Markets:
If you lived thru 2021 you’re a rockstar and welcome to our first year down
YTD US up 7% and Tech up 20%.
Since Dec, 2021 US down 14% and Tech down 20%
I know many and myself buying 6 month 5% bonds. But maybe I should pay down the mortgage?
Recession looming. San Francisco vacancy at 33%. 15 sales force towers.??
National Guard in SF
Netflix:
$690 - $166 - $328. 232m paid subs.
Same analogy I make to legacy media. Disney (closest streaming competitor) lost $1b on streaming. Amazon makes no money except on AWS.
Key statement: “We are pleased with the current performance and trajectory of our per-member advertising economics. In the US for instance, our ads plan already has a total ARM (subscription + ads) greater than our standard plan.”
Winding down DVD.com
Tesla:
Margins are down. But
- Ford Motor said Thursday its electric vehicle business lost $2.1 billion last year.
- Tesla Net Income $2.5b in the quarter!
- Punchline: How can these companies scale. Innovators dilemma.
- Charging network, insurance. Battery tech. Lithium refining!
Model Y best selling car in Europe. 2nd best in US behind Pickups.
Cyber Truck in Q3 and FSD this year? Definitely by 2025. “Our growing fleet of FSD Beta users has an exponential impact on total FSD Beta miles driven – with over 150 million miles to date and counting.”
Service and existing fleet. Service is margin. Razors and blades! : 59.08: .
Pricing: Sit around in a room and make informed decision 1/week.
SpaceX:
Everyday Astronaut Thread
Antonio Gracias.
Mainstream media perspective.
So you going to bet against this company. Has anyone else landed a rocket? Dec 2015. 8 years ago. Blue Origin in 2021.
Recommendations:
Night Watch, Full Swing, Succession
Markets. S&P 500 -16%, Tech QQQ -30%, Utra tech! ARKK Tech -65%
- 4.6% on 6 month treasury.
- Inflation. 7.1% YoY.
- Fed raised 0.5%. So now 4.25% - 4.5%. Probably going to 5.0 - 5.5%.
- Fastest in history.
My Mortgage. 4.5% and adjusting again to 2.25% + LIBOR.
Baby its cold outside!
Crypto Arrests.
- SBF in US and out on bail! $250 million.
- Caroline and Wang charged. Caroline Ellison, the former chief executive of Alameda Research, a trading firm tied to FTX, and Gary Wang, FTX’s former chief technology officer, both pleaded guilty to criminal offenses similar to those Mr. Bankman-Fried was charged with last week. Ms. Ellison, 28 years old, pleaded guilty to seven counts, including wire fraud and conspiracy to commit securities fraud, according to her plea agreement, which was signed Monday. Mr. Wang, 29, pleaded guilty to four counts, including wire fraud.
- Caroline interview.
Tesla/Twitter:
- Twitter Spaces. 1 hour interview with 38,000 listening.
- 13.56. Making ads better.
- Making sure Twitter doesn’t go bankrupt.
- Tesla stock down 69% YTD. $400b company.
- Now it could triple in 2023. Buffet will probably take a serious look.
- Elon has inspired a CEO and silicon valley “builders” renaissance.
- Elon to step down as CEO. Mr. Beast!?
- San Francisco to investigate worker conditions. Sleeping at work!
- From WSJ: Redundant managers, along with managers who have opaque responsibilities, are in essence professional critics.
Tesla:
- Tesla energy.
- MegaPack in Lathrop.
- FSD
- Tesla Semi
All they want for Christmas is to stop that Mariah Carey song.
Is Netflix back?
- Last week, Netflix said “Wednesday” had crossed 1 billion hours viewed, only the third title to do so within 28 days of its release, joining “Stranger Things 4” and “Squid Game.”
- Netflix Training classes
- See Rich Greenfields tweet about eyeballs.
Recommendations:
- White Lotus.
- Wednesday
- The Peripheral on Amazon.
- Mr. Beast interview on Rogan. Saw it on a list of most liked podcast episodes.
- Country xmas on Spotify.
Markets. Down 17% was down 25%.
Meta job cuts. 11000 13%. Brad Gerstner letter. A summary of some of the layoffs this year…
- Twitter: cutting 50% of its workforce (estimated 3,700 jobs).
- Facebook ($META): cutting 13% of its staff (11,000 jobs), its largest round of
Crypto
SBF is a FRAUD! Bernie Madoff style!
FTX lends money to Alameda!! $10b loan on $16b in assets.
FTX meltdown. FTX. Alameda. Binance. Coinbase. Nothing safe.
- FTX has a prominent list of backers such as Sequoia Capital, BlackRock Inc., Tiger Global Management and SoftBank Group Corp.
- Sam Bankman-Fried. $8b shortfall! He was worth $26b…apparently.
- Tom & Gisele. Hedgefunds.
- FTX Arena in Miami. Home of Heat. FTX on umpire uniforms.
- Celeb lawsuits: https://deadline.com/2022/11/tom-brady-giselle-bundchen-ftx-lawsuit-larry-david-steph-curry-crypto-1235174541/
- In the case of Curry, the NBA legend admitted in another tongue-in-cheek-ish TV spot that he was not that knowledgeable about crypto. He added, looking at the camera: “I don’t need to be. With FTX I have everything I need to buy, sell, and trade crypto safely.”
- FTX’s new chief executive“Never in my career have I seen such a complete failure of corporate controls and such a complete absence of trustworthy financial information as occurred here,” “From compromised systems integrity and faulty regulatory oversight abroad, to the concentration of control in the hands of a very small group of inexperienced, unsophisticated and potentially compromised individuals, this situation is unprecedented.”
- SBF is 2nd largest democratic donor this election cycle. $37 million.
- SBF parents. raised by two Stanford professors who specialize in law and taxes.
- Caroline Ellison.
- Caroline interview.
- Related party loans:
- $300m from last $450m investment to SBF.
- Alameda Research had $4.1 billion in related-party loans. Among those were $1 billion to Bankman-Fried, $543 million to FTX Director of Engineering Nishad Singh and $55 million to FTX Digital Markets head Ryan Salam
Lays off ½ of 7500 workers.
Had to bring some back.
The whole world shit-posting that the site will go down now. Tesla AI runs with 150 engineers.
Ligma and Johnson.
Markets. Down 20%. Was 25%, but rallied up 5% just this week.
GDP growth 2.6% (-1.6 and -0.6 in Q1 and Q2). So no recession…currently.
Apple. +7%
Amazon. -14%
Meta. -25%
Amazon. AWS insanely profitable. All other biz combined is break-even. Sales of $127b and Operating Income of only $2.5b (2%).
- Story: AWS $5.4b. All Other: $-2.9b. Everything losing money!!
- Tesla: $5b on $21b.
Meta: meltdown.
"Meta's results last night was an absolute train wreck that speaks to pervasive digital advertising doldrums ahead for Zuckerberg & Co. as they make the risky and head scratching bet on the metaverse," Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said in a report.
Revenue flat to Q4 20 at $27b. NI 4.3 vs 7.8!!
Viral Video (Play audio).
Twitter: what “products” does a 23 yr old product manager manage?
- 71% off high.
- Mkt cap $265b. Was 913b.
- Headcount growth! The number of employees is up over 3x from 25k to 85k employees in just the last four years!
- Wants everybody to work in MetaVerse!?
- Brad Gerstner letter.
- To accomplish this goal, we recommend a three step plan that will double FCF to $40 B per year and focus the company’s teams and investments:
- Reduce headcount expense by at least 20%;
- Reduce annual capex by at least $5 B from $30B to $25B; and
- Limit investment in metaverse / Reality Labs to no more than $5B per year.
- To accomplish this goal, we recommend a three step plan that will double FCF to $40 B per year and focus the company’s teams and investments:
The Netflix rebound.
- Hammered too hard initially.
- Reached “profitability” and growing. No one else has.
- Disney will.
- Amazon spending too much!
- Advertising more appreciated. Not affected by Apple tracking. A rich ocean to fish in.
- Comcast. Peacock has 15m subs and lost $614m in the quarter.
Twitter takeover.
- Walks in with Kitchen Sink. Entering Twitter HQ – let that sink in!”
- Fires CEO and CFO and head lawyer. $100m in severance pay
- Denies that he’ll fire 75% of workforce.
- Tesla engineers reviewing code.
- Employees walking out with boxes. Hoax?
- Just tweeted: Twitter will be forming a content moderation council with widely diverse viewpoints. No major content decisions or account reinstatements will happen before that council convenes.
- People threatening to leave.. Where? Truth Social, Parler?
Tesla:
- Cruise vs Tesla FSD in SF.
Recommendations:
- Upload.
US Stock market is down 22% and the Nasdaq 100 (NDX or QQQ) is down 32% year-to-date.
Netflix
After 2 quarters of negative subscriber growth Netflix adds 2.4 million subscribers in Q3 and expects 4.5m in Q4. Here are some key takeaways.
- Revenue grew 6% YoY or 13% excluding FX. This is a big deal because it shows they continue to scale topline at double digit growth.
- Advertising tier launching in November ($6.99 in US). 5 minutes of advertising per hour. As linear TV continues to die, advertising $’s will move to streaming. Netflix is charging top tier rates to advertisers.
- Netflix estimates all streaming competitors are losing money and combined losses are north of $10 billion. Why important? Because Netflix has reached critical mass and is generating $5-6 billion in annual operating profit. Very difficult to replicate!
- Free cash-flow over $1 billion in 2022 and materially larger in 2023.
- Netflix stock was 75% off its high. Now it is trading around $270 or 61% off high.
Tesla
Tesla is the most exciting company in the world; leading the EV revolution and transition to sustainable energy.
- Q3 Revenue: $23 billion. Up 56% Year-over-year.
- Q3 EBITDA: $5 billion. Up 55%.
- Q3 Storage Deployed (residential and commercial batteries). Up 62%
- Full Self Driving (FSD) Beta will roll out to everyone in Q4.
- Reiterated 50% topline growth for the foreseeable future.
- Semi deliveries begin this December and Cyber next year.
- Next gen car will be half the cost of 3/Y platform and smaller. Will exceed production output of all other vehicles combined.
- Elon see’s a pathway for Tesla to exceed the value of Apple and Saudi Aramco combined ($4.4 trillion), excluding accounting for Optimus (the robot). I do too.
- Tesla stock down 5% 🤔🤣Reminds me of Taylor Swift lyrics: “And the haters gonna hate, hate, hate, hate, hate…” I’m just gonna wait, wait, wait, wait, wait.
- Did you see Tesla AI day? Here’s a short video to give you a taste of Optimus.
MarketsDown 24% YtD.
Layoffs and Freezes and Downgrades and Upgrades
- Lyft has frozen hiring.
- Meta froze hiring.
- Docusign cutting 9% of workforce.
Apple downgrade: The iPhone maker dropped 4.9% after Bank of America cut its rating to neutral from buy, warning of weaker consumer demand for its popular devices. The selloff erased roughly $120 billion from Apple’s market capitalization.
Nike down 10%. Inventory up 44% QoQ.
Netflix
Netflix upgrade:
- Last week.
- Two this week. $283.
Netflix up 35% in quarter from $175 to $240.
- Advertising $’s. $65/1000 views.
- Advertisers may allocate from Meta to Netflix.
Federal Reserve
The Fed led by Jerome Powell raised the Fed Funds rate 75 bps to 3.0 - 3.25%. Expectation is now 4.0 - 4.5% by year end. Powell is determined to sink the economy to drive inflation to 2%. Why 2 and not 3%. We have a strong economy, strong underlying demand, low unemployment and the Fed is determined to destroy that.
CathieDWood (@Cathie Wood) Tweeted: The Fed is basing monetary policy decisions on lagging indicators: employment and core inflation. Leading inflation indicators like gold and copper are flagging the risk of deflation
Commodities
Commodities are down.
- Lumber: $410 down from $1300 in February 2022.
- Copper at $334 from high of $494 in March.
- Iron Ore $150 to $109.
- Oil? Not so much
Housing
Housing: 30 year mortgage rate is up from 3% to 7%. Result: $23k increase in down payment (assuming 20% down) and 100% increase in monthly payment (from $1,345 to $2,694).
Tesla
Tesla Recall. NHTSA FUD. Tesla is recalling more than a million cars because of defects in their automatic windows that could injure passengers, the nation's auto safety regulator said.
FSD Beta. Rolling out to all owners with driving score >80.
Tesla AI Day.
- Note, this event is meant for recruiting AI & robotics engineers, so will be highly technical
- As well as advanced chip & supercomputer engineers for next-gen training & inference
What are Jim and Mary thinking?
Quote: Children are happy because:
- They’re not self conscious.
- They lack a sense of time pressure
- They’ve no goals.
Markets
- Down 17%. Tech down 25%.
- Housing.
- Homes in August sat on the market an average five days longer than they did a year ago.
- The median listing price in August dropped to $435,000 from $449,000 in July
- The average home sold for less than its list price for the first time in more than 17 months during the four-week period ended Aug. 28, according to Redfin
- Nord Stream Pipeline closed again. Russia booking record profits.
- Long cold winter for Germany.
Biden Speach:
- Red lights. Looks like Nazi Germany. Portnoy Rant.
- Who are Maga Republicans? 5%, 10% far right? 49%? Far “left” just as dangerous. He just speak to the extremes if he wants to “unite” the country.
White house seeking $12b for Ukraine. In addition to $40b already approved.
- Roger Waters on American politics.
- And in Mississippi.
Nvidia:
- On July 27 Pelosi sells Nvidia stock.
- Aug 26 Government says can’t sell advanced chips to China.
Energy (in California)
August 24 CA bans the sale of gasoline cars by 2035.
August 30: Stop charging electric vehicles. May have rolling blackouts.
Diablo Canyon Closure and then re-open.LA Times:
How much does that plant produce? From PG&E directly:
18,000 gigawatt hours. ~10% of California’s energy needs.
For years, Diablo Canyon has continued to safely produce clean and reliable energy without greenhouse gases (GHG), avoiding 6 to 7 million tons per year of GHGs that would be emitted by conventional generation resources. Built to withstand extreme natural disasters, including earthquakes, Diablo Canyon’s design features state-of-the-art seismic supports
We need energy independence, which means mining too.
Tesla
- Investment grade debate. Answer from Moody’s. Narrow product line.
- AXA Tesla video and apology.
- Volkswagon sucks at software. This is where most car companies are.
- Tesla FSD 10.69.1 69 minutes non-stop driving in SF.
- Record delivery for Aug and Sept is Shanghai.
Netflix:
- Advertising live Nov 1!?
- $7-9 pricing
Recommendations:
Joe Rogan: Tim Dillon and Zuckerberg
Pam and Tommy. So dumb! But can’t stop watching. Sex and Rock n Roll.
The Markets
Down 13% YtD.
I don’t think we’ll see new highs until 2024. Just gonna bounce around.
The Fed.
Jerome Powell: “Restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time,”
Student loan debt relief
The president’s plan cancels $10,000 in federal student-loan debt for borrowers making under $125,000 a year or couples making less than $250,000 a year.
Ultimately, the average cost of tuition has increased more than 144% since 2001 on average, even after accounting for inflation.
- It's not “fair”. Nothing is though!
- The bigger issue is it doesn’t fix the underlying issue. Let markets drive supply/demand.
- Literature/history major.
- Optometrist example.
- Need to fix underlying issue: University costs are rising faster than cost of living and fueled by college administrators that are incentivized to encourage students to borrow.
- We should used a market-based approach to student lending. Universities should be on the line. Should approve. Market based. Grades and Major.
- Some states are going to levy taxes on forgiven debt.
https://lendedu.com/blog/student-loan-debt-by-school-by-state/
Novak Dkokovic
- Not competing in US open because he’s not vaccinated.
- So many people are getting Covid, including the CEO of Pfizer.
Electricity Prices
- 20 million households across the country—about 1 in 6 American homes—have fallen behind on their utility bills.
Electric Vehicles
- California Switch to electric vehicles by 2030.
- 17 states generally follow.
- Tesla Stock split. 900 to 300.
- Tesla 10.69.2 set to release in a couple of weeks. “Wide Beta” version.
- FSD price increased to $15k. Very bullish.
- Investment grade rating.
- Record Q3 and Q4 deliveries and profits.
- Semi release in Q4 and CyberTruck in 2023.
- Continued ramping of factories and likely announcement of new Giga.
- Macro-level: Energy prices driving Solar consumption.
- Tesla Virtual Power Plant program.
Recommendations
- House of the Dragon. Meh. And HBO renewed it.
- Hand Maids Tail.
- Rings of Power? $250m for rights. $500m to make.
- Rory and Tiger
Markets * Yes, We’re in a recession, but White House attempting to change the definition after …centuries…forever? Recession is 2 quarters of negative GDP. * Inflation at 8.5%. * US stocks down 24% and Tech down 31% on June 17. Now: 12% and 18%, respectively. *
Politics* Nancy Pelosi visits Taiwan. Prompts drills and missile tests by China. Do we really need this right now? Is that a good idea? Does it advance American interests? Since 1979 and under many administrations - left and right - we’ve maintained a policy of “Strategic Ambiguity”. * Raid on Trump’s Mar a Lago. + Could be Nuke materials…in that case…kind of serious. + Why not just make photo-copies. Or take pics on iPhone. So easy!? + Could there be a master plan. I thought the locker room talk would lock him out of the presidency. * IRS + 70000 new agents. Requirements: + 37 yrs old requirement. + Adhere to the highest standards of conduct especially meeting honesty and integrity. + Work a minimum of 50 hours per week which may include irregular hours and be on call 24/7 including holidays and weekends. + Maintain a level of Fitness necessary to effectively respond to life-threatening situations on the job. + Carry a firearm and be willing to use deadly force if necessary. + Be willing and able to participate in arrest and execution of search warrants and other dangerous assignments. * IRS Math: + Elon on National Debt: “US national debt is ~$28,900 billion or ~$229k per taxpayer.Even taxing all “billionaires” at 100% would only make a small dent in that number, so obviously the rest must come from the general public. This is basic math.Spending is the real problem.”
Tesla * Elon Tweets + Reminds us of Master Plan part deux. Written July 2016. Everything came around. + Master plan 3 coming. + Semi Truck. Cybertruck. New and expanded facilities. Machine of Machines. * * Jim Farley: https://twitter.com/_Tesla247_/status/1557472545695322112. Take that Elon Musk! What? * Dan Odowd and FSD running over children!! * Sex Tapes. Sticky situation.
Elon 18 years. And running 3 others: Including SpaceX, which landed first rocket in 2015 no one has done so since.
Streaming Wars: * https://www.wsj.com/articles/disney-price-increase-shows-limits-of-subscriber-growth-push-11660256118?mod=hp_lead_pos3 * https://twitter.com/RichLightShed/status/1557480645705830402 * * Subscriber #’s at Disney 2x and 3x counted. * 3 types: + Pure Streaming: Netflix, Amazon, Apple. + Mix: Paramount, WBD, Peacock, Disney + Arms Dealer: Sony.
Recommendations: * Obstacle is the way. Ryan Holiday. * Happiness corresponds to how much you think about yourself vs. others! * Terminal List. Chris Pratt * Old Man w/ Jeff Bridges
Economy/Markets.US Stocks down 22%, tech down 28%, ARKK down 55%.
Inflation print. CPI at 9.1%Energy and Gas up 60%
Food up 10%.
These are the items that are killing average Americans.
What now:
War, Supply Chains, Inflation (supply driven), and Fed actions.We need a peace deal to end the war and we need China open.
Are we in a recession? Yes.
Politics:
- 70-80% of americans in general agreement. Then the 10% wacko’s come out and ruin everything for the rest of us.
- Climate change or die! No. There is a middle ground.
- Energy. Pass $1 trillion bill. $500b on near term energy and $500b on long term sustainable clean energy. To easy, right!?
- Abortion. Shouldn't have gone here!?
Netflix:
- Bad guide. Stock down 75%.
- Partnering with Microsoft for ads
- TikTok kicking Netflix’s ass…so why not compete head on.
Lots of Cheap stocks:
Example: Stitchfix down 95%. Bill Gurley buys $5m of StitchFix. 20x return if it goes back. That’s the good news.
Twitter/Musk
- Spam accounts hard to determine.
- Twitter suit against Musk looks like a looser.
- Elon Musk is a nightmare client. The Atlantic.
- Tesla returning to office.
As for Musk himself, the CEO had said in an email a few days earlier that he would spend six days a week in the factory, “seven if physically possible.” In the email, which The Information reviewed and which hasn’t been previously reported, Musk added, “BTW, anything I ask others to do, I do myself even more.”
Tesla:
- All automakers down today. Watching this guy say that Tesla will “revert to mean” of other company valuations. No they wont.
- Solar, Battery, Cars, AI, HVAC, Semi’s,
Entertainment:
- Topgun
- Tour de France.
- British Open for Golf. Tiger shot a 78.
Austin Texas bachelor party. I love that town.
Dr. Emperor of masks and vaccs Fauci has Covid; and he’s been vaccinated 4 times.
Chesa Boudin the progressive DA of the most progressive city was recalled. Are people actually getting tired of crime?
Markets:
- S&P down 23% and Nasdaq 100 down 30%.
- Fed just raised 0.75% this week. First time since 1994. Now we’re at 1.75%.
- Inflation. Gas. War. 8.6% 100% up for gas. News flash: interest rate hikes don’t drive gas prices down.
Credit card companies make a lot more money when gas prices double. Their revenue doubles. Buy Visa and Mastercard?
Housing:
- In Jan 2021 30 yr mortgage rate was 2.65%. Avg home price $402k.
- Today. 5.78% and $570k.
- 20% down payment. Monthly payment is $1,294 to $2,671. 106% increase.
- Rates are 3% higher. So $500k loan. $15k/year or $1,250/mo.
I personally just saw more houses for sale on Zillow in my neighborhood, more than ever.
USA Today removes 23 articles after a reporter fabricated sources. USA today is allegedly a “fact checker” for Facebook and possibly Twitter. Musk at Twitter All-hands.
Elon Musk:
SpaceX fires employees. No unsolicited employee activism needed!!
NYT reporting on letter. Brian Armstrong did this at Coinbase.
“The letter, solicitations and general process made employees feel uncomfortable, intimidated and bullied, and/or angry because the letter pressured them to sign onto something that did not reflect their views,” Ms. Shotwell wrote. “We have too much critical work to accomplish and no need for this kind of overreaching activism.”
Twitter:
- So casual. Looks like he is on iPhone and some dude walking around in kitchen in background. 200m daily users. 7.8b Gap. 8b in world. Wants 1b at least.
- How to verify. $3/month.
- Payments.
- Entertaining advertising.
- Video: Talk about how to make Twitter better! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FLvTcRrzy20
- Video 2: How do you define success.
Netflix take some lessons! TikTok!!
Electrician and immigration. 3 strategies:
- PHD’s.
- Lower labor.
- Refugees.
- AND Strong borders.
Tesla stuck in the mountains. https://twitter.com/ShowersJacob/status/1537556676558979072
Mike Greene is the CEO of Resi-Shares; a firm that is leveraging data, technology, and financial innovation to deliver systematically diversified appreciation and rental income from single family homes.
Mike and I go back a long way having attended the MBA program at UC Berkeley.
Mike has worked his entire life in real estate including sell-side banking, buy-side and finally at HouseCanary, a company leveraging big data and AI to provide actionable insights on real estate.
In this episode we talk about:
When Mike co-founded his business Covid hit and he thought it would be a perfect time to invest in single-family housing, but the markets sky-rocketed and real estate prices went up. Turned out the timing was terrible, but like any great entrepreneur he persevered, learned a lot and survived!
What his company Resi-Shares and other institutions are doing in the real estate markets: BlackRock, BlackStone, and investing in real estate investment trusts (REIT’s).
We spend a lot of time talking about Bay Area real estate (at my admittedly selfish request).
- Should you buy or rent?
- Should you sell or rent if you’re moving?
- What’s going to happen to Bay Area real estate, given economy and interest rates.
Recommendations discussed:
- Anthony Bourdain - Medium Raw
- Lakers Fiction/non-fiction story: Winning Time
Markets:
S&P 500 down 15% and Nasdaq 100 down 23% YTD.
Housing Market:
- Mortgage rates from 2.5 to 5.5%. $1m loan at 3% is $30,000 per year, Double that to get pre-tax earnings of $60,000. That means you need to be earning at least $60,000 more per year to cover mortgage interest on $1m loan.
There is a silver lining to this market. Big downturns every decade or so make for the best 2-3 time opportunities in life to invest. 2022 is it. Fund your 529’s. Dollar cost average in.
- Sept 2000: 1520 - 800 Oct 2002. 47%.
- Oct 2007: 1565. 95% (doubled money in 5 years).
- March 2009: 712. 54% down.
- Jan 2022: 4800. 574%. Almost 6x. 13 years.
- May 2022: 3900. 20% down.
Tesla:
- Elon Emails:
- https://twitter.com/WholeMarsBlog/status/1532728341865943040
- Bloomberg: To be super clear!
- “Pretend to Work somewhere else” - Elon Musk.
- Reuters: Elon email to cut staff by 10%. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/technology/exclusive-musk-says-tesla-needs-cut-staff-by-10-pauses-all-hiring-2022-06-03/
- Joe Biden Video
- 9000 Ton Giga-press for Cybertruck. YouTube video
- Stock down 10% haha
Ford: In another headline: Ford to Create Thousands of Factory Jobs, Invest $3.7 Billion in EV, Gas-Engine Production
- The 3.7 multibillion-dollar investment will go to retooling factories to build newer versions of gas-engine models, such as the Ford Ranger pickup and Mustang sports car, the auto maker said Thursday.
- 55,000 Union auto workers.
In Closing;
- NFLX Stranger Things viewing. 286m vs Briderton and MoneyHeist ~200m.
- Johnny Depp $10m.
- Hunter Biden. Texts. Viewer discretion advised!
We probably could use some reasonable gun laws that 80% of Americans agree on. In fact, 80% of Americans would agree on a lot of things, but our politicians are so corrupted by the far left and right, its impossible to get anything done!
Huge rally this week. Stocks up 4% in 4 days.
- Layoffs at PayPal, Netflix, Robinhood and Bolt (one click startup payment company)
- Hiring Freeze/slowing at Meta, Uber, Coinbase, Microsoft, Nvidia.
Fed minutes indicated will still increase 0.5% in June and July. But then open to “wait and see”.
Housing market:
- Mortgage rates up: 2.5% to 5%+
- Home Sales are down Jan to April. 6.5m to 5.6. 15% down. Spring/summer should be up!?
- Single family starts lowest since Oct 2021.
- Mortgage purchase applications slowest since May 2020.
- Homebuilder sentiment lowest since June 2020.
Energy. Gasoline up 80%.
Crypto is not a hedge:
- Crypto market cap has fallen from $2.3t to 1.3t.
- $4.5b fund at Andreeson Horowitz. A16z
- My Luna is $0.
- BTC. Down 56%
- ETH. Down 60%.
- DCA in still recommended.
Apple holding up well in the News.
- $144, down 21% YtD. was down 25%
- Flat iPhone sales. 220m, same as 2021. Expected 240.
- Tormer Tesla Autopilot software engineer who left to join Apple’s secretive car project last year, has left Apple to join Luminar.
- Lidar vs. AI real cameras. Tesla showing different types of cars, doors open, garbage cans, cones, traffic lights…insane!
Tesla:
- Diner
- 3700 charging stations globally.
- Elon committed to buying Twitter.
Netflix:
- Netflix Games suck.
- Stranger Things. Can it have a Squid Game effect? Its been 3 years and only show streamed/seen more was final episode of GoT.
In Closing:
- Ricky Gervais on Netflix.
- Tesla Charger competition. https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-supercharger-competition-race-11653581057?mod=hp_featst_pos5
The US is in a recession. The Fed is not helping as they are driving consumer confidence and therefore spending into the ground. Its a Fed-induced recession. Regardless, the markets needed this correction. Its healthy and if you have money this is the time to make a lot of money over the next decade.
Tech stocks and "Generals" have now been shot. Apple is down 25%. Google, Amazon, Microsoft all down over 25%.
Consumer defensive: Target, Costco, Walmart, Koels, all down!
Netflix is making major strategic adjustments. About time!
Tesla/Twitter....so much going on.
I play some clips of Elon talking about (1) why he's buying Twitter. Surprise, it all sounds reasonable and rational. and (2) why Tesla is like 10 startups in one company.
Have a great weekend!
We are in the 3rd major drawdown of the 2000's.
2000: DotCom Crash
2008: Great Recession
2020: Great Reset.
Elon is buying Twitter. The far left is pissed. But now he's got backing by big private equity and Larry Ellison. He also says he will take Twitter public again in 3 years or so.
Tesla is killing it. Growing 50% year over year at a scale never before seen in history.
Netflix completely dropped the ball. Raised prices too fast and programming is not good enough. Down 72%.
So many tech companies down 50 - 90%. There will be more carnage.
Recommendations: get outside. It's summer.
I think Covid is finally over, at least in US. We are so tired of it. Time to move on.
Markets are wild this quarter. Down 15%, then up 10% to be down only 6%!?
Tesla is tearing it up in Austin with their Cyber Rodeo today/tomorrow. Elon to speak tonight. So many catalysts in their business including Tesla Austin, Berlin and Shanghai expansion.
Elon joined Twitter board. This will be interesting and will be good for free speech in the "public square"
Netflix is too woke and not taking enough risks. Stock down 50%. Unlikely to recover anytime soon. They don't even care about 140m potential subscribers in Russia.
Pinterest is dying to get noticed, so said they will start suppressing climate change misinformation. Good for them.
Masters golf tournament this weekend!
Ukraine.
Markets are getting smashed, but we're not in recession...Yet.
State of the Union. Covid super spreader event...nope...they told us its over! Yay. Is Biden a flip-flopper? Overall boring, like all of them.
Covid is over; at least our politicians say so.
Tesla is KING.
Serious and tragic situation with Ukraine and Russia. This needs to end soon.
Markets officially went into "correction" territory this week, which means they're down 10% from high. This could be a wild year!
Block and Etsy are great examples of growing high potential companies that got punished by 60-70% off their high. They both reported strong earnings on Thursday and rebounded sharply...though no where near where they were!
Tesla in the news.
Ford in the news: CEO says it will be VERY difficult to compete head-to-head with Tesla! Wow!
I loved Despicable Me 1 & 2. Embarrassed to say I'd never seen them before!
Markets are crashing in general, but worse if you're in high-tech. Just got to weather this out. If you have cash, keep buying slowly. You'll look back in 2 years and realize it was a hell of a deal.
War in Ukraine, supply chain and stupid Fed policy/communications not helping at all. Good news is no fundamental structural issues in economy.
EV's. Government continues to attack Tesla, arguably the most innovative and climate change important company in the World. Ford looks to get Tesla like valuations....oh but no software folks there.
California just held the super bowl with 100k fans in attendance un-masked, but somehow Dictator Newsom still says we're in a "state of emergency"...going on 2 years now.
San Francisco recalled 3 SF School Board members. Last city to open schools, but they spent all their time debating what to rename 44 schools, including Lincoln and Washington. Finally, some sanity...we want our politicians to focus on things that actually affect us...duh!!
Neil Young back on Spotify...thank goodness...I was going mad without his playlist.
The markets are absolutely crazy nuts volatile. If you miss earnings your stock is hammered.
The Generals: Apple, Microsoft, Google, Facebook, Amazon. These are the barometers of our economy and doing well. Our economy is in great position.
We just need to ensure that the Fed and Biden policies don't cause a consumer confidence led recession.
Tesla is again at odds with the Administration, but at least they said the "T" word. Why would you ever bet against the guy colonizing Mars.
Covid: After 2 years everyone is getting Covid fatigue and the Democrats recognize this finally and are slowly pivoting policy in an attempt to save themselves in the mid-terms.
Who said this: "I held my breath when I took my mask off". These guys think we are so stupid! Insulting and ridiculous!
Normally I put out Pod on Friday, but couldn't wait this time around...too much going on.
The markets are resetting and hopefully done! The Fed provided guidance today and it was good.
Microsoft (2nd biggest company in world) released earnings and it was spectacular. Need the same from Apple.
Tesla Earnings! Unbelievable and one of the most interesting earnings calls ever! Elon was on. I play some clips. Gotta figure out how to buy me some more Tesla. He says full-self driving is biggest software feature in history and Tesla bot (Optimus) will eventually deliver more revenue than auto! And other shell-shockers!
Bill Ackman, famed hedge fund manager buys NFLX! OMG should we follow. NFLX is down ~50% and is poised to grow over the next decade.
Neil Young said its either him or Rogan on Spotify. Guess who spotify chose.
A little emotionally drained today from turmoil in markets, but wanted to get it out to tell the NFLX and markets story while fresh. Worst start to a year in decades.
Bleeding over until Monday. We may see more storm and darkness before the light.
Dear Netflix: You must prioritize sub growth.
Peloton hiring McKenzie and slowing/haulting production...yeah that's a bad sign!
The markets are off to a dismal start of 2022, but it was worth it for 26% returns in 2021.
I talk a lot about where and why of markets in 2022.
Tech is in the dumpster, but it will bounce back. Stocks like Robinhood down 80%. That means if you buy now and they get back to previous high you'll 5x your money.
Pfizer CEO talks to the Pod.
Narcos Mexcio
The Fed is ending the stock market party. We knew it was inevitable. But will it really end?
Elizabeth Warren takes a crack at Elon for not paying taxes. ?? He'll pay more taxes than any American in history this year. She's a hater.
EVs. Tesla has been at it for 20 years. Took them 17 to get to profitability. Will be VERY hard for the newbies.
CEOs of major airlines testify that masks probably don't make a big difference on airlines. Meanwhile, Oregon and CA extending mask mandates.
Crypto baby!
Merry xmas!
Inflation is NOT transitory. The Fed is going to take action and we're seeing it ripple thru the markets.
Stocks with good fundamentals are not getting hurt; but megacaps that make no money are getting crushed.
Omicron. Democrats, Pfizer and the media are so happy we have new variant to talk about. I'm so over it, and I think most Americans are.
Jim Cramer jumped the shark. Thinks military should go door-to-door to administer shot.
Elon is interviewed by WSJ. great excerpts.
My guest today is Travis Dillard. He is the co-founder of Cadia Capital Group, a real estate investment company and we talk A LOT about real estate on this podcast. Previously he was CEO of a communications company that he sold to private equity.
Travis and I talk a lot about real estate investing; he is an expert in this space. He runs a real estate investment company and brings insights into how to think about investing, we talk about:
- Rent caps.
- Land lord rights.
- the Great Migration.
- Real estate investment opportunity is fluid and a function of time and geography
- And although we try not to tie everything to politics, it was interesting to learn how impactful government policy is on decision making; he even talks about red and blue states and how that drives investment allocations and decisions.
Elephants in the room that the Biden Administration won't touch.
Tesla...can't have a Pod without mentioning them.
Markets are booming!!!
NFLX and TSLA at all time highs. Biden hates Tesla, but he can't stop them!
Wealth taxes are un-american!
Happy Halloween!
Markets are now up an astounding 21% year to date. This is crazy ridiculous fun!
Tesla, Netflix and Microsoft hit all time highs this week!
Tesla vs the Biden Administration. Its nuts that the Biden Administration hates TSLA and is putting up roadblocks for one of the most important companies of our time.
Netflix will grow to 1 Billion subscribers... 4x where it is today. So very little risk to owning the stock if you're in it for the long-term.
We must defend Taiwan! Thank you Biden.
Netflix! Stock at all time high. Chapelle killed it in his last stand-up. Employees at Netflix are staging a walkout. Co-CEO Ted Sarandos comes out and says we're not taking it down! Kudos for taking a stand and not bending to the will of your employees (uhem Apple). Companies need to nip "cancel-culture" in the bud and get back to their Missions (see Coinbase).
SoCal rocks. I stayed San Diego, Del Mar and Newport. You would never know Covid was a thing!! Is this really California?
Facebook in the news again...
Tesla to the moon. Getting close back to all time high. No end in site with to Giga Factories opening.
Gruden fired. But why doesn't the NFL hold all personnel and players to the same standards. Cancel culture hypocrisy.
Elon musk was recently interviewed by Kara Swisher at the Code Tech Conference. Here's link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESIjxVudERY
I play some of my favorite clips. If you're not interested in Elon Musk, Tesla or SpaceX this is probably not an episode for you...but if you are, I hope you love it.
NFLX stock price reached all time highs this week; and that's in the face of a market sell-off. The street is rewarding their move into Gaming. Further, their international Korean hit Squid Game, is a perfect representation of the scale and leverage they are obtaining from international infrastructure. More on that here: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/netflix-reaches-all-time-high-619-runway-ahead-sean-john-hathaway/
Take care!
Ryder Cup golf is amazing TV. does Jordan play 36 or 54 holes per day?
Markets up 19% YTD.
Newsom to spend $15b on environment. Fine, but be careful shutting nuclear down.
A Haitian migrated with his family from Chile to the US. Personally, I would have just stayed in Chile.
China. Cyrpto banned. Jack Ma , Alibaba CEO, is not painting. Lobotomy anyone?
Watch out for those fees...they'll kill ya!
Netflix at all time highs. Will they bid on F-1?
GM bolt is spontaneously combusting. Whoops.
Our compassionate Governor of CA survived the recall! Not that surprising. He's good and has Presidential ambitions.
SpaceX just launched 4 civilians into space to orbit for 3 days. That is mind-bending.
Tesla is getting royally screwed by the government for not unionizing. F*%k unions.
Carvana! Ernie II and Ernie III making billions off of stupid investors...good for them!
MSFT doing a buyback of $60b. What else are they supposed to do? Not return money to shareholders?
NFLX at all time highs.
Outerbanks baby!
I don't want to talk about Afghanistan, but how do I not?
Baby from Nirvana's iconic Nevermind album cover is suing for child pornography.
Newsom is in serious trouble. There are really good candidates to chose from; democrat and republican.
Markets: I bought Etsy and Square and I discuss WHY.
Coinbase is a little scary in terms of how they can rope you in to spend more money.
Waymo is launching in San Francisco. Self driving. They say GM's cruise is their biggest competitor...literally no mention of Tesla!?!
Netflix has launched gaming...in Poland.
I'm back after a 3 week hiatus. Did the Alcatraz triathlon. Epic!
Afghanistan is a disaster, but that's US foreign policy in a nutshell.
Tesla AI is incredible and even more incredible is that their stock isn't up over $1000 today.
Cathie Wood's ARK invest is innovative and interesting and now losers are creating financial instruments to specifically bet against her (i.e. short ARK).
Insider Trading at Netflix.
Cuomo and Newsom are both corrupt and inept and deserve to be out of office.
Sex/life. Not a recommendation, but a provocative can't stop watching show.
Markets continue to roar!!
MegaCaps are outperforming. simply stunning that Nvidia and Google are up 50% year to date.
Bitcoin discussion with Cathie, Elon and Jack.
Bezos goes to space. That's a good thing.
Jamie Dimon the CEO of JP Morgan should retire.
Manifest is a good show. Interesting how its on Netflix.
My new favorite movie is BayWatch!
I've been gone for a couple of weeks so had to update fast on a million topics:
$3.2 trillion more govt spending. Inflation already thru the roof.
Stock market up 16% YTD. Bless you if you own, NVIDIA, FB, MSFT, PYPL.
CAPE ratio and other indicators are getting scary.
Covid. We're masking up again in CA. Love this authoritarian state and dictator Newsom.
Metaverse! ETFs, like ARK and META.
Elon defends Solar City purchase. Litigator in over his head.
White house working with FB. Oh great, that feels right!
Trump's CFO indicted. Does anyone give a $hit?
The US stock market is on fire, up 14% year to date.
Covid is basically history in the US.
Microstrategy and its CEO Michael Saylor have gone lunatic betting the company on Bitcoin, but I guess shareholders don't mind, because there valuation rocks.
Peter Thiel is a multi-billionaire and has a $5b Roth IRA. Good for him!? I think?
Lordstown - EV Truck manufacturer - CEO and CFO resigned on same day. 99.9% chance that is a sign of something bad.
Tesla Model S Plaid reveal. Fastest and most technologically advanced car in world! bye bye competition.
On June 15th CA is going back to normal...we'll see.
IRS leaked tax returns of billionaires, like Musk, Bezos, and Buffet (but not Trump?). Now there's a big uproar to get them and corporations to pay more. They actually pay a lot; it just very misunderstood.
Cyber attacks on meat plants and pipelines. These don't seem like industries that are cutting edge tech; but they really f-up the economy when they go down.
Tesla to reveal Model S Plaid, while Lordstown Motors discloses risk of bankruptcy.
Meme stocks. CEO's of AMC and Gamestop are making literally $100's millions off of day traders. Whatever. I wouldn't go near any of this garbage.
I'm a little fired up on this one.
Phil Mickelson wins the PGA Championship at age 50! Incredible. Now he will team up with Tom Brady to play against Bryson DeChambeau and Aaron Rodgers. Will be an epic match, with so much tension between all of them.
Some minor updates on Covid politics and big tech media censorship.
Reed Hastings is supporting Gaven Newsom. Newsom is single-handidly destroying education in California. While I'm not surprised, I am irritated. And I'm disappointed that NFLX didn't make a go for MGM. Would have been much more interesting than a $5b stock buy-back.
Ford now positioning themselves as an EV and Tech company...yah right.
Tesla is so dominant and is going to move into so many spaces it is ridiculous!
check out the new social media app: Paparazzi.
Crypto is all the buzz this week. I'm getting a little tired of talking about it, but its unavoidable.
In California we still wear masks, our kids don't go to school and restaurants are not at capacity.
In California we may eliminate Calculus in high-school in the spirit of equity.
AT&T is divesting Warner/HBO, which will merge with Discover+ and David Zaslov will continue to be the highest paid media exec in history of world: he is the Coin Master.
Finally, CDC moves in the direction of common sense and says if you're vaccinated you don't need to wear a mask in most instances. People are losing their s**t on this one.
Government is spending money like drunken sailors and inflation is here; interest rates will have to rise. That effects you, me and stocks.
Pipeline warfare. This is war and we need to battle. We also need to be more prepared.
CA is a failed state...ok not quite yet, but we're under authoritarian rule, pay the highest taxes in the nation and 2/3's of kids are still not back to school in person. High crime and homeless population. It'd sad.
Elon Musk on SNL. And Crypto.
High flying new tech stocks took a beating (a deserved beating). Overall though, US stock market still up 10%.
Vaccines and CDC lightens mask requirements. Yay.
FATMAAN: Facebook, Apple, Tesla, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Netflix. All big name-brand consumer facing companies looking strong.
Semi-conductor chip shortage.
Tesla earnings. Tesla for the 100th time is not a car company. And Elon even goes as far to say that in the future won't be thought of as Car OR Energy, but AI/Robotics company. That's the vision folks, and that's why it will be the most valuable company in the world.
Warning: I went back and listened to this, and I think it sucked. Probably being hard on myself, but instead of pulling it down, I'll leave it up, but with this warning. I'm committed to improving!
Crypto is completely out of control. Doge leading the charge, but down 60% this week.
Tesla car crashed and killed 2 people. BTW, I laughed during this segment which I think is inappropriate as people lost their lives; I'm laughing at the stupid media coverage. I feel for the family of these individuals.
SpaceX launch. With humans on re-used rocket for 1st time ever. That's good news btw.
Inside look into the hours of investment banking and the torturous lives they live. Don't feel sorry, they make boat loads of money and have chosen that lifestyle.
Biden tax hikes. Cap Gains going up!!
The future of higher education. Some stocks that are interesting.
Netflix and HBO parent AT&T both released earnings this week. One good, one bad!
A great Friday it certainly is!
Markets are up 7% year-to-date.
Vaccines. All good news here!
Tesla surprised everyone and out-delivered expectations this quarter.
Government spending leads to taxation. Capital gains going away? Wealth taxes?
Markets are so frothy. Archego Capital implodes. Too much leverage! Heard this story a million times.
Red Notice - the book - is great.
Bill Gurley interview on Masters in Business Podcast great!
Biden gives his first press conference ever. A lot of people made fun of him for stumbling around but we really should focus on attacking policy and not people. Overall, I think he did fine.
Newsom is a disaster and a recall election is imminent. CA has 5 million un-used vaccines on shelves. Just open up already and let everyone get in line.
Markets have been quite volatile of late, but don't forget we're up 200% last 10 years, 20% last year and still 5% YTD.
Tech stocks falling out of favor, but as long as company is growing, no need to fear.
ARK investments.
I recommend Red Notice and Pirate Kingdom on Netflix.
The economy is opening and the money is flowing!
Plan to bbq for Memorial day weekend.
There is so much money sloshing around that people don't even know where to put it.
We're clearly in a bubble, but maybe it will never pop.
SPACs and non-fungible digital tokens. Its really crazy.
Covid hypocrisy and craziness continues; it's hard to imagine life before Covid. UC Berkeley has locked its students in the dorm rooms: no out door exercise allowed!
CA is becoming a failed state. Gov. Newsom is taking a lot of the blame and will very likely see his name on a recall ballot this summer.
Disney stock to all time highs. And they fired Gina Carano, female star of Mandalorian for anti-semitic comments that were not anti-semitic...but clearly inflammatory, as she got fired for them. Cancel culture is a slippery slope and one I don't think we should ski on.
Zillow and Redfin disrupting the housing industry and basically kicking ass.
Bitcoin. Tesla bought $1.5 billion of Bitcoin. I did too, but not that much. Its a risky play!
How can I not chime in on the Reddit, RobinHood and Gamestock fiasco. At the center of it is hedgefunds. I dive into what shorting is and the short squeeze. Here it all is in plain-english so you can explain it at the dinner table and look super smart.
Finally, a wrap on FAANG of FANMAG (Facebook, Apple, Netflix, Microsoft, Amazon, Google).
Should we all start owning more Tech stocks, like QQQ and VGT?
Joe Biden is our president. I talk about how this will effect the markets in 2021. I also provide thoughts on minimum wage, immigration and college education.
Netflix released earnings this week and it was a doozy! Enough to drive the stock up almost 20% to all time highs.
Disney is also floating around all-time highs, but its less clear why they deserve that valuation.
Trump has not only damaged Democracy, he has crashed the Republicans and burned his brand!
Shutting down Parler has really demonstrated the few un-elected officials that control the social dialogue and in turn business and politics.
Affirm is a new FinTech company and they are looking good!
Streaming wars...always something brewing. I'm worried about Netflix stock price in near term, because now it IS streaming wars.
Covid: Turns out Lockdowns don't help...Duh!?
Riots on Capitol Hill; must talk about that. We need to stop labeling people and we need to cancel the cancel culture.
2020 was a great year (for markets) and most believe 2021 will be similar.
Elon Musk richest person in world. Tesla 5th most valuable American company.
Some of my favorite 2020 shows for wife, me and watching with kids.
Happy New Year!
I recently bought AT&T, Peloton and more Apple. Let's see where that goes!
RobinHood is ridiculous and I officially don't think people should use it. Though they'll likely go public or get acquired and the founders will be loaded.
Disney is all-in on Disney+ and is dropping audacious goals to the public. With Covid they've turned lemons into lemonade and I admire their gumption! I love that they are getting into sports and think Netflix needs to move there sooner than later. They are here for the very long-term, along with Netflix and Amazon Prime.
Talk a little HBO Max and Netflix. China anyone?
I like Ted Lasso, but it's not for everyone. Pessimists and cynics won't like it.
In this episode I talk about:
Life in shelter-in-place California.
IPO Mania. Snowflake $100 billion valuation and today AirBnB comes out at $100b. DoorDash at $70b. As Nellie would say it is getting hot in here, so we're taking off all our clothes.
HBO, Time Warner and therefore AT&T (all same company) are making big aggressive moves and it may be time to buy the stock...if you think the market will reward them. I think it may!
Facebook is sued by 48 states and the FTC (as an investor no need to worry).
FireEye, a premier cyber-security firm is hacked. Ouch.
Finally, I talk about Tony Hsieh's (founder of Zappos) recent tragic death and his likely struggle with depression and how I too have struggled, and have come to realize (yes very late to the apparently obvious) that a lot of people struggle with depression.
Feedback or questions to:
sean@hathawayfinancial.com
or
https://hathawayfinancial.com/#contact
I got a little fired up on parts of this, but
More Covid Hypocrisy from our politicians; it'll literally NEVER stop. We are sheep they are the aristocracy and we shall do as they say...not as they do...obviously.
I solve Student Loan Debt while powering the economy.
Hedgefunds. Tesla shorts. Oh boy.
A new streaming entrant Discovery+. And their CEO should fund the next bailout with his fat salary.
General Motors is touting their prowess and comprehensive Electric Vehicle technology, initiatives and attempting to convince us they will be #1 EV manufacturer in future. I don't buy it. But they'll do fine. Tesla will continue to be phenomenal.
Netflix is trading well below its average price target and 2 prominent analysts have raised their price target.
Queen's Gambit a show about chess is good TV and inspiring.
The book "How Children Succeed" by Paul Tough, also talks about chess and how strategies to win at chess are strategies for winning at life.
Thanksgiving in Oregon is shutdown.
Its ok, or at least it should be ok, to disagree with your political leaders policy (that's called politics), but none of us should have to put up with the in-your-face hypocrisy they shovel.
Tesla will now be inducted into the S&P 500 index hall of fame.
Mark Zuckerberg gets grilled by Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri.
Disney earnings.
Tony Romo.
Election results helping the stock market...this is how...
Masters Golf.
Markets up 10%+ this year; a phenomenal year by any measurement!
Pfizer saves the world and execs get rich selling stock.
I kind of apologize to Netflix for their content. Kobra Kai is good! But Netflix needs to set more audacious goals!
Twitter's CEO Jack Dorsey gets chewed out by Sen Ted Cruz.
Covid is everywhere in sports. Can sports swing the election?
Quibi is done. Who could have imagined (sarcastic).
Google sued by US Govt.
Tesla, Tesla, Tesla. The coolest, most original, innovative and soon to be most valuable company in the world.
Netflix laid an egg for Q3 earnings. Don't worry all is not lost, but they need to focus on subscriber growth and better content.
Disneyland California remains closed and the Governor of CA seems hell-bent on keeping it that way as long as Covid exists.
Disney Restructuring is a mess to watch. Its like slowly pealing the band-aid off. In the long-run they'll likely get it right, just a painful process.
Work-from-home (DropBox, JPM).
Sexual orientation vs preference (huge difference).
$52k Covid hospital rides.
Silver linings of 210,000 Covid Deaths
Disney and TimeWarner vs Netflix
Draftkings stock. Overpriced?
VP debate. Mansplaining?
Sean discusses concept behind "Breakaway" podcast.
Breakaway from groupthink and the haters. Think for yourself and for the long term.
Then dives into many reasons why Tesla is still a long-term "buy" even though it has seen a 5x multiple in its valuation over the last 9 months.