The Final Bell: Recent Episodes
Rural Radio Network
Cattle trade moves lowerCommercial selling for the livestockFats are down when you look at the trade Tuesday-TuesdayWeather concerns for livestockCommercial lead for the grains on light volume
Export sales reportSA Crop updateWeather in the wheat beltGFSTariff talk for grainsCattle tariff talk
Post WASDESouth American production USDA didn’t feed the bull on Tuesday-defended today in cornWheat doesn’t have the support it needsBeans continued to drop Chang in private production estimatesChina buying more beans from Argentina & BrazilWeather premium in the cattleCash market movement this week
Breakdown on the WASDEGlobal numbers from WASDEWeather in S.A.How is planting/harvest goingTrump trade/tariff wars underwayBeans can they be pushing a red flag?Fund positions in today’s tradeCommercial selling in the cattleLower cash market feels today
Wheat dips after a firm openCorn sales going to MexicoSoybeans went to unchanged WASDE report out tomorrowWinter weather ramps up once againMarketing plans for spring ‘25Firmness in the cattleEarly cattle sales in Oklahoma
Tariff weigh in with ChinaMexico & GMO What happened with the soybeansQuieter Friday compared to what we saw earlier in the weekWhat happened to the mid-week rally for cattle?How are the funds moving
Weekly tariff updateMake or break for South American cropsNew highs in the wheatDrop In the cattle with border crossingsIs this a shift in the cash cattle market?
SA weatherHarvest underwayWhat is the crop size?Tariff fatigueBeans leading the correctionFunds are huge longs in the corn and beans short wheatRussia Ukraine back in the headlinesBiofuels is a big growth area-a lot of uncertainty Movement in the cattle market
Headline Risk-Don’t trade on the headlineSA weatherNA weatherMovement in the cattle market
Plethora of information that came in over the weekendCattle does it need a life line?Can cash hold at least steadyMexican border set to openNon commercial and light commercial actionGrains look at U.S. weather
Tariff on again off again back on againSoybeans were up until after the middayFurther pressure on the ethanol marketCattle saw a rebound in the trade day
Month EndTariff threatsNew lows in cattle and beansOutside market numbersDollar movementCash in corn and cattleWheat weatherCattle inventory report out on Friday
Momentum kicks with the fundsWeather forecast changes to South America Midwest weather changesEIA Report BullishChinese Lunar New Year holiday todayTariff chatter
Darin Fessler of Lakefront Futures recaps todya's trade.Topics include:- Corn and the safrinha crop- Beans and the tariffs- Wheat leads today- Technicals indicate situation- Cattle futures chasing cash trade
Tariffs with Columbia, Mexico & CanadaLong term SA weather outlookOutside market feelAI & marketsNew highs in the cattle marketCattle inventory report on Friday
True nature of the South American cropWeather in South AmericaExport tax for Argentina Record highs in the cattleIs February Live Cattle to cheap?
Trade & TariffsWeather in South AmericaWeather worries in the U.S.Dabo speechOpec OilCOF out on FridayNew highs in cattle Jan 31st Cattle InventoryRecord highs set
What is your take away on the beans Shipment disruptions with BrazilWeather concerns for wheat?Weather in Brazil & Argentina Trade agreement with ChinaHistory making trade for cattleLatest on the Mexican border
Trump euphoriaDelay in tariffs China talksU.S. DollarDo cattle want out?Is there position squaring for cattleWeather worries on lack of moistureArtic blast and feedlot cattle
Non commercial buying on the grainsHeaded into a holiday tradeSoybeans saw some commercial buyingCattle will finish mixedWeekly chart for cattlePressure for cattle going into the weekendHoliday trade headlinesArtic blast & livestock
Biden Administration on Biofuels Technicals with lows in the soybeansBullish corn bearish beans & spreadingMLK on Monday with the inauguration Dressed cattle jumpingSale barn prices showing price discovery
Brazil StoneX NumbersWeather concerns South AmericaLess then a week from Inauguration Collapse in May beansHow do we keep from going back to 2015 cattle marketsConsumer demand for meat
Higher feeder cattle pricesSteady cash out of IowaArtic blast on the cattle marketStronger pork cutout valuesBeans had a reversal downWeather in ArgentinaCONAB numbers
Weather marketSoybean tradeStocks to use ratioWhat technicals are you seeing in the tradeSpread between corn & wheatCan we see higher prices again for cattle this week?
Weather in S.A. changes in past 24 hoursWASDE reportStrong market buying for corn, selling for beans & wheat Reversal in the product marketHigher cash for the cattle
Grains not a lot of push-coil around 20 day moving averageWeather in S.A. WASDE reportHigher cashGoldman rollAre the cattle overbought?Is there some nervousness amongst cattle producersWhy did the hogs turn negative
Market broke early to fight its way backHow much producer selling is out there?Friday USDA report outlookLonger range weather maps have rain in Argentina Debate on tariffs in new administrationDollar trade effects on grain & livestockPort strike concerns? Strong sale barn pushISIS raids-what will happen to processing?
Weather in South America & time frame of growing seasonWeather here in the U.S.USDA report out end of weekCattle markets on fire-in the cash
Crop numbers for Brazil from StoneXWeather in South America & time frame of growing seasonWeather here in the U.S.China and their stock marketCattle markets on fire-in the cash
Demand is goodA lot of uncertainty into the new yearVolatility will continue to increaseBeans as well pushing the pricesInauguration coming upSpicey cattle market
The corn and soybean markets showed notable activity today, reflecting a mix of technical and fundamental factors driving their movements.Corn closed with strength, supported by export demand and technical positioning. Technically, the charts indicate a rally driven by favorable weather conditions and fund interest. In soybeans, the market gained momentum due to improved demand signals and tightening global stocks, particularly influenced by South American weather concerns.
What was the biggest market movers in ‘24What are you watching for in ‘25Trump trade unwindNatural gas prices looking at the January Midwest weatherDollar stallCommodities showing some upside Mother nature overrides all
South American weatherContinued rally in the corn & beansAggressive selling for grainsCattle had a strong trade day
Christmas Rally is underwayBrazil crop conditionsHow is the SA harvest goingWhat is crops in Argentina looking like?What can expect out of China?H&P report
Holiday trade mode is onFridays keeping government openYear round E15 still a no goWatch the winter wheat crop in RussiaConsumer confidence index droppedWeather in South America & Mexico Cattle market into holiday mode as well
Stock market was a driver in the trade todayFundamentals not seeing much changeIs trade done for the week for cattle?A turn around Friday on the grainsRatio between November beans & December cornBeans finding the level they need?Year end thoughts for the grains?Good story headed for corn to year end
Corn & beans try to support with exportsHPAI and feed demandWhat changed for the beans today?New lows in feeder cattle
Brazil currencyGovernment bail-out FedsWorld soybeansHow good is the Brazil bean crop?Tariff trade & potential agreements
Brazil currencyGovernment bail out South American weatherEnd of year, end of quarterFED tomorrowCOF on FridayWho will blink first on the cash?
How would you describe the corn market at this time?2. What does the soybean market look like?3. What impact has Palm Oil prices had on soybeans?4. How does South American weather look overall?5. What did you think of the NOPA crush numbers?6. How were export inspections this morning?7. Is there anything that should be done with our marketing plan?
Busy cash week for cattleUS/Mexico border moving forwardHogs push higher for a FridayTuesday WASDE report for corn
Need good old demand backNeed to step away from politics & weatherLaNinaWeekly Export SalesHigher cattle being passed on
The Final Bell is a daily interactive wrap-up of what happened each day in the commodity markets. The Rural Radio Network will visit with a wide range of analysts to stay on top of market trends to help farmers and ranchers make informed decisions.
WASDE ReportWhat does the competition look like going forward?What does next years demand out of China look like?Is it to early to be pricing stuff?How are the basis levels?Are we in the start of a new market?
Are we jumping into holiday mode too early for the trade?WASDE thoughtsChina corn crop conditionsSome set back in front month feedersFirst notice day for December in the live cattleAre the markets overdone?Are the highs in for the month for cattle?
Two-week highs in beansNew weekly highs in wheatRussia wheat issuesCorn had a beautiful ending to the weekHigher cash cattle Hogs were not sleeping this week
Tyson closing plant in KSCargill with cutbacksCash trade is talked strongWill producer hold out till the 11th hour?Sale barn movement & heifers staying homeHog pressureGrains chopping sidewaysCrush number update and pressure on meal marketSlowing down of exports South American weather favorable
Is China trying to make a tariff trade deal?Holiday trade continuesBuying support at lower range for beansSouth American weather still looks good45Z got kicked down the roadDecember basis for corn & beans?Tyson/Cargill and the cattle market
Coming off a holiday tradeBuy & fill“Hit the floor” in the feeders`Goldman roll set to startCash feeders are hot-can it continue this week?Good rally over the past 13 daysDemand wasn’t an issue for hogs todayChina back again for more U.S. beans overnightFall fertilizer application concernsSolid weather for South America nearbyBasis thoughts for corn & beans
The corn and soybean markets have shown mixed action today. Corn remains under moderate pressure due to seasonal trends and ongoing harvest progress, while soybeans have been fluctuating near previous lows, reflecting uncertainty in both the supply chain and export markets.Funds' Impact: Speculative funds continue to influence these markets. Managed money has shifted positions, with recent buying activity in corn, though soybean positioning remains cautious as traders assess South American weather and global demand prospects.
Why did the markets move Tuesday to revert back today?What is going on with soy oil?Feeder cattle with new world screwwormHigh cash cattle marketPersonal income roseOpen interest records in the hogsGood consumer demand-but Mexico 40% of pork exportsMore thoughts on Trump tariffs
Tariff weight & potential impactCorn set backBeans hovering near previous lowsPre-holiday trade action Global stage for grainsStrong range for the feeder cattleHow short bought is the south on cattle?
Holiday trade mode underwayEU wheat down Risk off?What is going on in gold & silver?Dollar down but off the lows a few weeks agoInflationary trade going on?CFTC ReportVolatility in the cattle market
Split market action Grain under pressure South American export & production numbersManaged money going forwardBetter than expected cashSale barn strong
Russia Ukraine tensionTrump policy on tradeNew lows in soybeansSouth American growing China, hogs & the fundsLive cattle struggled while feeders saw a positive trade
Russia Ukraine tensionChina agreement with BrazilSouth American growing Supply demand fundamentalsFEDS fewer rate cuts?Retail data for the month of October
Russia Ukraine tensionWeekend headlines pulling attentionGeo politics vs. trade issues Does the trade care?South American progressDollar trade
Seasonality’s of the marketsSouth America weatherNew administration Strong U.S. dollarRussia Ukraine situation geo political Cattle hold onto some positives
The recovery in the corn, soybean, and wheat markets today appears to be driven by several factors, including improved export activity and some technical buying. Market sentiment may also be influenced by shifts in global weather patterns, particularly in South America, and by updates on U.S. harvest progress.Key Points:NOPA Crush Numbers: The latest crush report showed strong soybean processing, indicating healthy domestic demand for soy products. This could bolster market confidence in soybean fundamentals.Corn and Soybean Export Demand: Export sales for corn and soybeans have been robust, with particular interest from key markets like Mexico and China. These positive signals may encourage traders to adjust their outlooks. As always, reassess your marketing plans based on export trends and price opportunities.Corn Demand for Ethanol: Ethanol demand remains steady, with production maintaining levels that support corn prices. However, fluctuating crude oil prices can influence ethanol profitability, which might impact future demand for corn.Mississippi River Levels: Water levels have seen slight improvements in some areas due to recent rains but remain a concern for grain transportation. This continues to add logistical challenges, which may pressure basis levels.
The markets remain on edge with election expectations shaping the forward outlook. Weak prices continue to dominate conversations as the "elephant in the room," causing concerns across the agricultural sector. In the cattle market, midday trading saw a noticeable breakdown, signaling cautious sentiment. Meanwhile, the hog market faced its own pressures, with shifts leaving traders analyzing the potential causes and broader implications for livestock markets overall.
The market is adjusting to a complex mix of factors this week. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been a focal point, adding to broader global expectations across markets. Flash sales activity remains a driving factor, with an eye on Brazilian growing conditions, which have been generally favorable. Additionally, the impact of elections continues to weigh on traders' minds, creating a level of uncertainty in pricing movements. For cattle, heavy weights and slower cash sales are contributing to cautious sentiment as the industry assesses near-term demand and pricing prospects.
The grain markets are watching several pivotal factors this week, with money management strategies potentially being the biggest influence. Last week, China purchased about half of its grain needs from the U.S., underscoring the ongoing influence of the Chinese economy on commodity trade. South American weather is improving, leading to favorable growing conditions that may support their yields and impact global grain supply.In livestock, both live and feeder cattle have seen interest from large buyers, helping support prices in recent days. However, questions remain about the durability of this rebound; a shift in fundamentals could put pressure on prices if it were to turn negative. The cattle market’s next steps will largely depend on whether this momentum can hold.
The grain markets started the week off sluggishly after an overbought Friday, leaving traders to wonder if this trend will spill over. The dollar strengthened significantly, adding further pressure to commodity prices. Meanwhile, wheat remains attractively priced, but political discussions and uncertainty continue to weigh on market sentiment. In the soybean complex, soyoil movements and political factors play significant roles, while traders may need to pause to reevaluate before making further moves.
The latest WASDE report brought some mixed reactions, with overall production numbers closely aligning with expectations but a few regional surprises in state-level yields. The corn balance sheet reflected steady demand but highlighted some adjustments in exports and feed usage, keeping stocks relatively tight. Soybean numbers appeared slightly more bullish, with yields revised in key states, reinforcing a tighter supply outlook. The market response was interesting—corn remained stable, while soybeans saw an uptick, possibly fueled by traders' positioning ahead of global demand cues. Technically, both corn and soybean markets show resilience, with soybeans holding key support levels and corn testing resistance, suggesting some upward potential in the short term if demand holds strong.
This week, markets are reacting to shifting trade dynamics amid "Trump Trades" and expectations around a potential Fed interest rate cut, which could provide support across various sectors. Ahead of the WASDE report, there's heightened anticipation, particularly in the soybean complex, where prices have shown explosive movement. Meanwhile, cattle markets are finding solid support, suggesting resilience even as other factors create volatility. These combined influences are keeping traders on edge, awaiting clarity from upcoming reports and policy shifts.
This week, markets are digesting the impact of recent election results, with many eyes on how these outcomes might shape future policies. In agriculture, the StoneX Customer Harvest Survey is offering fresh insights into yield expectations, which could show market sentiment ahead of Friday’s WASDE report. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve meeting adds another layer of anticipation as investors await signals on the direction of interest rates. Consumer sentiment continues to be a key focus, with recent reports hinting at how economic uncertainty might influence spending patterns and market movement in the coming months.
This week, the markets reflect an election-season tone, with overall quiet trade as investors and traders look for clearer signals. Key events loom ahead, with the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday expected to set the tone for interest rates, while Friday’s WASDE report will provide crucial insights for agricultural markets. Meanwhile, discussions with China could impact trade relations and market sentiment. In the cattle market, we’re seeing a notable shift, potentially driven by fluctuating consumer confidence. As these factors unfold, the market remains on edge, anticipating moves that could set the stage for the remainder of the season.
The market feels the tension of election season, with much of the trade remaining quiet as it watches for signals. While crude oil has seen some action, grains are capturing attention, potentially setting the stage for tomorrow’s market shifts. With key reports like the WASDE and updates from the Federal Reserve on the horizon, traders are also monitoring developments in China and assessing the latest progress out of South America. In the livestock sector, fat cattle movement continues to trend, though technical uncertainties in live cattle keep market watchers cautious.
The main highlight this week has been export activity, especially with Mexico's demand for corn. On Friday, they purchased 716 million tons of old-crop (OC) corn from the U.S., underscoring their ongoing need for future imports.Drought remains a concern in several regions, though there are signs of potential replenishment in some areas.Fall basis prices are also influencing decisions as we move into the November 1 grain marketing window, which is an important date for managing grain contracts and forecasting the market's direction.
As we head into the end of the month, markets are keeping an eye on several key developments, starting with election prep in the U.S., which could bring more volatility across agricultural and financial markets. A potential divergence in the soybean complex is also taking shape; factors like South American weather and Chinese demand may pull soybean oil and meal prices in different directions, creating varied impacts within the broader soybean market.Meanwhile, cattle contracts are seeing intense trading activity, with "fireworks" as traders position themselves ahead of the month's close. The cattle market has been dynamic, with price fluctuations driven by concerns over cattle supplies, packer demand, and shifting trade expectations
The wheat market is facing some unique pressures as Russia's export taxes and variable weather continue to impact trade flows. In Brazil, weather remains a central focus as growers look for favorable conditions to support crop progress. Outside markets, including energy, are adding another layer of volatility, especially with ongoing global shifts in supply and demand. With elections around the corner, political uncertainty is weighing on market sentiment. Meanwhile, in the livestock sector, pork prices are being closely watched, with recent fluctuations adding to the complexity of market planning.
Jeff Peterson of Heartland Farm Partners recaps the factors that shaped today's market activity.Corn closed 1 to 4 cents lower.Soybeans closed 10 to 13 cents lower.Wheat closed mostly 10 cents lower.All three livestock complexes closed higher.- Why do you think corn and soybeans are starting the week of weaker?- Are the funds playing much of a role in the corn and soybean markets at this time?- Do you think we will continue to see the strong corn and soybean export sales like we had last week?- How were export inspections this morning?- What is the latest on the Mississippi river level?- What would it take to get corn and soybean prices to move higher from here?- How do you think corn and soybean future’s spread trade from here?- What do you think will happen to corn and soybean basis levels?
Export sales have been strong this week for both corn and soybeans, providing some support to the market. All eyes are on the upcoming Chinese stimulus meeting in early November, which could influence demand and pricing. However, uncertainty remains regarding South American crop outcomes, as well as the impact of dry conditions in the U.S.—though it may still be too early to raise alarms on that front. Politics continue to weigh on the ag sector, while depressed soybean prices add additional pressure. Meanwhile, balance sheets for corn and beans are increasing, adding further complexity to market dynamics.
Export sales are in focus, while election jitters are starting to impact market sentiment. Soybeans faced some pressure, with key factors dragging the market down. There's still a question of what's not supporting broader trade action. Meanwhile, anticipation builds for tomorrow’s Cattle on Feed report, and winter wheat is being eyed for pasture use as ranchers look for options in the face of evolving market conditions.
The basis continues to firm up as farm selling picks up momentum, contributing to market activity. Reinflation is becoming a significant part of the equation, influencing various sectors. In Brazil, much-needed rain is finally arriving, which is beneficial for crops. Export demand remains steady, but political uncertainties are adding a layer of complexity to the market. Dryness in key wheat-growing regions of Russia is causing concern, while the cattle market experienced a sell-off, leading to added pressure on producers.
The market saw positive action in both corn and beans, with corn pushing higher on the back of large option spreads. Export demand for grains remains strong, helping to support the upward momentum. However, winter wheat planting is facing some delays, causing concern in the wheat market. Meanwhile, cattle traders are eagerly awaiting the Cattle on Feed (COF) report, which could further influence market direction. The cattle market has shown higher movement, bolstered by commercial buying activity, but the industry is cautious, waiting for more data before making bigger moves.
The corn and soybean markets are currently signaling a mixed story, with export levels remaining a key focus, particularly as concerns grow around the low Mississippi River levels impacting grain shipments. Funds have had a noticeable effect on market volatility, influencing price movement, especially in soybeans. Exports for both corn and soybeans are progressing but face challenges from logistical issues. In South America, weather patterns and planting progress will be closely watched, with favorable conditions potentially altering global supply expectations. Technically, the corn market shows some weakness, while soybeans present a more stable outlook. This may be an ideal time to evaluate and potentially adjust marketing plans, particularly with technical factors and global weather conditions playing a significant role in upcoming price movement.
Heather Ramsey with the ARC Group based in Lincoln recaps the factors that influenced today's negative grain trade.Topics today:- Market attitude- Overnights vs. day session- Hedge funds and the election- Rain in North and South America- Fundamentals get no attention
Mike Zuzolo of Global Commodity Analytics recaps the factors that influenced today's trading.Topics today:- Feeling like a weather market- Longevity of strength- Funds position- Metals, energies, currency- Livestock quieter today
Politics and upcoming elections are adding uncertainty to the markets, with fiscal policy changes in China also weighing heavily on sentiment. However, big export announcements for corn and soybeans this morning provided a much-needed boost to the grain trade. Rains in Brazil are aiding crop conditions, while U.S. weather continues to be a critical factor driving market movements. The fast harvest pace in the U.S. is keeping pressure on prices as supply builds, but traders are keeping a close eye on how these various factors will shape the market in the coming weeks.
The NOPPA crush numbers came in strong, but corn inspections were disappointing, adding pressure to the grain market. A train derailment in Mexico created additional logistical concerns, while rains in South America are improving crop conditions there. Traders are now watching to see if the Midwest will get much-needed rainfall, with ongoing concerns about river levels impacting transport. Meanwhile, the cattle market saw a drop, further contributing to the cautious tone across agricultural markets this week.
With the Monday holiday trade, there wasn’t a lot of fresh news to kick things off. The market felt the effects of a long harvest weekend, with some chatter about potential rain next week that could impact progress. Chinese stimulus measures were also a topic of conversation, adding a bit of uncertainty to the global outlook. Feeder cattle saw some movement, and spreads were a key focus for traders as the market looks for direction heading into the next week.
The WASDE report today didn’t bring any major surprises, but there were a few key takeaways worth noting. Corn yield numbers came in close to expectations, though some believe they could still be adjusted in future reports. Soybean yield estimates also appeared reasonable, but the market will keep a close eye on how weather impacts final numbers. U.S. ending stocks were in line with projections, though global ending stocks raised a few eyebrows, particularly with ongoing challenges in key growing regions. Looking ahead, it’s possible we’ll see adjustments in future reports as harvest progresses. As for marketing plans, now might be a good time to review and make any necessary tweaks based on today's data and potential future changes.
Wheat held higher in today’s trade, while corn and beans saw lower movement. A recovery in crude oil prices added some support to the broader market. As traders look ahead to tomorrow’s report, questions linger about potential shifts, especially with South American weather in focus. On the livestock side, the cattle market pushed higher and managed to hold green throughout the day, showing resilience despite broader commodity pressures.
Steady cattle prices were offered in the north this week, though it seems the basis may have been lost, the potential for lighter kills as packers continue to add pressure to the trade. The market is still contending with heavy cattle in the south, but despite these challenges, the cattle market has seen a strong rally overall, showing resilience in the face of various pressures. Soybeans led the trade today, supported by strength in the wheat market. Global demand for U.S. grains is picking up, providing a boost amid market uncertainties. However, ongoing tensions and pressure in the Middle East will continue to weigh on the market, influencing both short-term movements and long-term outlooks for U.S. grain exports. These factors will likely remain key drivers as the global situation unfolds.
Grain markets were softer overall this week, with soybeans leading the pullback. Seasonals suggest some pressure is typical during this period, while harvest is moving ahead of last year’s pace. A big question looming is where to store the grain—could this become a market issue as supplies increase? On the cattle side, the cash market remains a key focus. Livestock saw both sides of the trade throughout the week but managed to finish higher, showing some resilience despite broader market softness.
Weather in South America remains a critical factor, as we await Friday’s USDA report, which will provide more insight into yield expectations. The big question is whether seasonal lows have been set, and how a potentially large South American crop might impact prices moving forward. Meanwhile, dryness in the Midwest continues to pose challenges for U.S. producers. On the livestock side, many are wondering if there’s a chance for higher cash cattle this week, as market dynamics evolve. All these elements together will be pivotal in shaping the outlook for both grains and livestock.
A temporary end to the port strikes has provided some relief to supply chains, while Brazil is set to receive much-needed rains, aiding their crops. The USDA report next week is highly anticipated, with markets looking for further clarity. However, drought continues to plague Russia and Ukraine, adding pressure to global grain supplies. Here in the U.S., dryness remains a concern for producers. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions, with wars looming in key regions, add uncertainty to an already volatile market, impacting everything from commodity prices to long-term trade expectations.
Even the wheat market struggles to pull grains higher, despite global challenges. While up days are desirable, constant upward movement isn't always sustainable. Frost worries in Australia are impacting wheat production, while drought in South America continues to hinder crop growth. Add in the disruptions from ongoing port strikes and the escalating conflict in the Middle East, and the economic picture becomes more complicated. All of these factors tie back to the livestock sector, where feed costs and market volatility are directly influenced by global events, creating an uncertain environment for producers.
There’s positive money flow in the food and energy sectors, signaling strength in these markets. The latest StoneX customer survey suggests crop sizes are getting bigger, adding pressure on supply. In Brazil, rains are expected to return next week, which will be welcomed by the soybean and winter crops, aiding growth. Meanwhile, the EU Commission has proposed a one-year delay on deforestation regulations, impacting global trade dynamics. Ongoing port strikes continue to disrupt supply chains, but the cattle market remains on fire, with prices surging despite broader market challenges.
Corn broke through its 100-day moving average, signaling a key technical shift in the market. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions are rising with Iran launching missiles into Israel, adding uncertainty to global markets. Domestically, good harvest weather is helping farmers, but the focus is also on South American weather—could it be a game changer for global crop production? Crude oil has pulled back from its highs, while the U.S. is facing storage issues for soybeans. In the cattle market, feeder cattle saw a drop, raising questions again about the corn marriage.
China's influence continues to weigh heavily on commodities, impacting global demand and pricing. The upcoming USDA Quarterly Stocks Report will provide further clarity on supply levels, potentially shifting market dynamics. Meanwhile, the effects of recent hurricanes on agriculture, particularly in key growing regions, are still being assessed. With looming port strikes threatening supply chains, the ag sector is keeping a close eye on potential disruptions. Cattle trade started quieter this Monday, while there is ongoing speculation about the potential for dairy herd expansion in the near future.
Hurricane concerns are looming over agriculture, with potential impacts on crop quality and transportation, while tar spot worries in the Eastern Corn Belt are adding pressure to corn yields. Harvest activity is picking up across the country, but grain markets sold off this week, driven by broader macroeconomic factors like China's stimulus efforts. Crude oil prices have dropped by $2, which could benefit livestock markets as lower fuel costs ease transportation and feed expenses. There's a push for higher cash cattle prices this week, although boxed beef prices have softened, creating mixed signals for the cattle market.
Chinese stimulus measures are adding some optimism to global markets, but questions remain about the impact on agricultural demand, particularly for corn. With corn sitting on the sidelines, traders are left wondering what the next move will be. While the macro environment appears slightly improved, soymeal is still facing struggles, possibly due to oversupply and weak demand. On the trade front, attention is turning to Columbia, where U.S. beef exports are gaining traction, adding a positive note to an otherwise uncertain market.
Funds are beginning to come out of their short positions, creating some movement in the markets. Early harvest updates are showing disappointing yields for soybeans, while corn seems to be holding its own as harvest progresses. In Brazil, the northern regions are struggling with poor conditions, adding to global supply concerns. The southwestern U.S. is also facing a challenging weather story, contributing to uncertainty. Global tensions are further weighing on the market, sparking questions about whether we’re seeing seasonal bottoms form. Looking ahead, long-term positioning is on traders' minds. The Cattle on Feed report came in as expected, and cash cattle prices moved higher on Friday, signaling some strength in the livestock market.
With the FEDS rating drop adding pressure to the markets, harvest is underway, though dry conditions are raising concerns about crop quality. This year’s yield potential remains difficult to pin down, with variability across regions making it hard to get a clear picture. The upcoming Quarterly Grain Stocks and Small Grains Summary Report on September 30th will be closely watched for further insights. In Argentina, BAGE reported that farmers in the north and west are abandoning wheat fields due to drought and insect pressure, while 80% of wheat in the east is rated good/excellent. Basis levels are fluctuating as markets adjust to harvest progress and supply concerns. In livestock, cattle movement is showing some strength in the charts, while hog producers are considering holding off on selling as they assess market trends and weigh their options.
With the FEDS rating drop influencing market sentiment, traders are wading cautiously through the day. Wheat struggled to rally despite broader market movements, while technical indicators in the grains showed mixed signals, reflecting uncertainty. Weather remains a critical factor, impacting both harvest progress and crop conditions. Looking ahead, the Cattle on Feed report due tomorrow is expected to provide more direction for the livestock markets, as it will shed light on supply and feeding trends heading into the final quarter of the year.
The recent drop in the FEDS rating has implications for both the U.S. dollar and foreign currencies, likely weakening the dollar and potentially making U.S. exports more attractive. With China coming off its holiday, there’s speculation about whether they will increase purchases from the U.S., especially for agricultural commodities. Meanwhile, there are concerns about delayed corn planting in South America, which could tighten global supply. Harvest is progressing steadily in the U.S., but questions remain about yield numbers as reports are mixed. Overall demand is holding, but there are worries about excess soybean meal supply, which could weigh on prices. Additionally, low Mississippi River levels continue to pose logistical challenges for grain transportation, potentially affecting export flows.
With the rate decision coming tomorrow, markets are on edge, but cattle prices have continued to move higher. The upcoming Cattle on Feed (COF) report is also drawing attention as it could impact price direction. Grains seem to be locked in a box, with limited movement, though some commercial buying in soybeans has provided support. Corn and beans have managed to pull wheat along with them, despite the grain market's overall stagnation. Weather concerns remain a key factor, with both South America and the U.S. facing challenges that could influence crop development and yields in the coming weeks.
NOPA Crush Report: The latest NOPA Crush Report will provide insights into soybean demand and processing, which is critical for gauging domestic supply and crush margins.Sales to China: Recent sales to China continue to influence the markets, particularly for soybeans, as China's demand plays a crucial role in price direction and global trade flows.Basis for Corn & Beans: Basis levels for corn and soybeans have shown some variability, reflecting regional differences in supply, harvest progress, and local demand, with some areas seeing stronger basis due to export and processing needs.Weekly Grain Inspections: Weekly grain inspections are being closely monitored, as they provide a pulse on export activity and whether shipments are keeping pace with expectations for the marketing year.South American Weather: Weather conditions in South America, particularly in Brazil and Argentina, remain a critical factor. Dry conditions are raising concerns about planting progress and future yield potential, which could tighten global supplies.Charts for the Cattle: The technical charts for cattle show mixed signals, with some strength in prices, though market volatility remains high. Trends in weights, cash market movement, and seasonal demand factors are being closely watched by traders.
The bean market turned lower today, driven by shifting weather patterns in both Brazil and the U.S., which could impact crop production. Additionally, escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine are adding to global market uncertainty, further influencing commodity prices. In the livestock sector, cattle prices continue their rollercoaster movement, reflecting the volatility across agricultural markets as external geopolitical and weather factors shape the trading landscape.
Today’s USDA WASDE report delivered key insights into supply and demand for major crops and livestock, impacting market expectations and strategies. Overall, the market is expected to react strongly to these revisions, with price volatility likely to increase as traders adjust positions based on the updated supply and demand dynamics.
Markets are bracing for the USDA WASDE report set to be released Thursday at 11 a.m., with expectations that reactions will be swift across both grain and livestock markets. The stock market has already played a key role in recent trade activity, influencing movements not just in grains but also in livestock. Mark emphasizes the importance of forward-thinking for growers, encouraging them to consider their marketing strategies well into 2025. With market volatility likely to continue, having a long-term plan in place will help producers navigate uncertainties and capitalize on opportunities as they arise.
As markets position themselves ahead of Thursday's USDA crop report, there's been a noticeable reversal in soybeans, driven by lower stocks affecting both grain and livestock trade. Heather emphasizes the importance of solidifying marketing plans before harvest gets into full swing. With combines set to hit the fields, having a well-thought-out strategy before crops head to the elevator is crucial to maximizing returns. Locking in prices and monitoring market movements can help producers make informed decisions during this critical period.
Money flow in the cattle market has been significant, contributing to a nice turnaround after a period of softness. Despite the recent jobs report, which could temper consumer demand, cattle prices have remained resilient. Fund-related trading is also playing a role in both cattle and grain markets, adding to volatility.In the grain market, China has returned to buy more soybeans, driving a strong market move, with soybeans emerging as the key market mover of the day. The May/July corn spread is drawing attention, suggesting that traders are positioning for potential changes in supply dynamics later in the year. Meanwhile, basis levels for grains continue to fluctuate, reflecting local demand and transportation concerns as harvest approaches
Today's trade saw a downturn, largely influenced by a weak macroeconomic picture. Outside markets played a significant role in dragging grains down, as broader economic concerns overshadowed short-term agricultural trends. Growth remains the central focus, with market participants closely watching for any signs of economic recovery. This week’s BPA (bushels per acre) data dump added to the uncertainty, as traders tried to assess the potential impact on crop yields. Meanwhile, jobs numbers are also weighing on the market, particularly in the livestock sector, where cattle prices are feeling the pressure from broader economic indicators.
Geopolitical pressures continue to create uncertainty in the markets, making it difficult to forecast long-term trends. There are hints of a potential wheat rally, though the rally doesn't appear to be driven by demand but rather by supply-side concerns, including weather issues and geopolitical instability. The technicals are also playing a role, with certain resistance levels being tested, but the sustainability of any rally remains unclear. Weather will be a key factor moving forward, as unfavorable conditions could support higher prices. However, harvest pressure could offset some gains as more grain comes to market, especially if yields are strong.
The recent market rally has sparked curiosity, with many questioning what's driving the upward momentum and whether the market has finally hit its bottom. South American planting is in focus as it could influence global crop supply, while China's soybean buying patterns are adding further complexity to the trade landscape. Additionally, the growing tensions between Canada, the U.S., the EU, and China over electric vehicle (EV) sanctions are creating ripple effects across various sectors, potentially impacting agricultural exports and broader economic relations.
Crops in the Eastern Corn Belt are facing varied conditions, with high moisture corn becoming a focal point as harvest approaches. As we move past the first notice day, producers are being forced to make critical decisions regarding storage, marketing, and moisture management. Despite these challenges, grain exports continue, although logistical concerns persist due to low water levels on both the Mississippi River and Brazil’s river systems, which could affect transportation and export efficiency.Looking ahead to September, higher cattle and hog prices are providing some optimism for the livestock sector, with market dynamics suggesting potential strength as the new month begins.
Open interest in the grain markets is shifting, signaling potential changes in trader sentiment as we approach the new marketing year starting on September 1. Seasonals are looking favorable, with market conditions typically strengthening ahead of the harvest. Soybeans are seeing an improving situation, supported by demand and crop progress, while corn remains strong, benefiting from solid fundamentals.As we move into the new marketing year, key factors to watch will include yield reports, export demand, and how the crop quality holds up through the final stages of development. These elements will be crucial in shaping pricing strategies and market positioning as the new season begins.
Geopolitical tensions are once again impacting the markets today, adding to the uncertainty. China’s pullback on purchases of corn, wheat, rice, and barley is also creating additional pressure. As we approach the month’s end and head into a three-day holiday weekend, market volatility could increase. Acreage changes in Argentina are drawing attention, while ongoing planting worries in Brazil continue to raise concerns about future supply. Meanwhile, cattle prices are experiencing another dip, further weighing on the agricultural sector.
Geopolitical tensions are rising as Israeli forces conduct a sweeping military operation in the occupied West Bank, adding uncertainty to global markets. Meanwhile, China is pulling back on its purchases of key agricultural commodities like corn, wheat, rice, and barley, which could pressure prices. Domestically, the ProFarmer Crop Tour highlighted concerns, and now a heat spell is raising further questions about crop maturity and yield potential. In Brazil, planting worries persist, with potential delays that could impact global supply. Additionally, wheat prices are firming in the Black Sea region, driven by regional instability and supply concerns, which could have ripple effects across global grain markets.
There's green on the screen across much of the agricultural sector, driven by non-commercial buying in both grains and livestock. In the cattle market, feeders experienced some commercial selling, while live cattle saw increased buying interest. Hogs are rallying back, showing renewed strength. Additionally, crop maturity is progressing earlier than last year, which could impact harvest timing and market dynamics in the coming weeks.
Now that the ProFarmer Tour is behind us, the marketing focus will likely shift to the upcoming USDA reports, particularly the September WASDE, which will be crucial for refining yield and production expectations. Additionally, market participants will be closely monitoring fund positions, which provide insight into market sentiment and potential price movements. Brazil's planting conditions are also being watched closely, as they can affect global supply and competition in the export market.
The ProFarmer numbers provide a crucial on-the-ground perspective, often highlighting regional variations that can either confirm or challenge broader estimates like those from the August WASDE report. These numbers are gathered through a detailed process where scouts physically measure crop conditions across key areas, assessing factors such as pod counts in soybeans and kernel rows in corn. After collecting this data, ProFarmer compiles and analyzes it to arrive at their final yield and production estimates. Comparing these numbers with the August WASDE report helps identify potential adjustments in expectations, which could influence the September WASDE report. Depending on these findings, it may be necessary to adjust our marketing plan to better align with the updated market outlook.
Navigating the current market landscape requires careful consideration of multiple factors that could significantly impact outcomes. The Canada Rail strike, for instance, presents logistical challenges that could disrupt supply chains and lead to delays or shortages, affecting market stability. Late in the day the strike was put into arbitration by the Canadian government. Additionally, the Pro Farmer Crop Tour provides insights into crop conditions, influencing market expectations and pricing strategies. Meanwhile, the turnaround in the cattle market, where feeders are leading the charge, signals a potential shift in market dynamics that needs to be closely monitored. Handling these developments with agility and strategic foresight is essential to mitigating risks and capitalizing on emerging opportunities.
This week, all eyes are on the FED discussions, which could have significant implications for the economy and markets. The Pro Farmer Tour is also drawing attention, offering critical insights into crop conditions just as August weather patterns start to show their effects. Adding to the uncertainty, a potential Canadian rail strike looms, threatening to disrupt transportation and supply chains across the region.
The crop tour is currently underway, providing valuable insights into the condition of this year’s crops. Grains have seen a nice bounce, which is encouraging, but the drier weather could still have a significant impact on yields. As market conditions shift, many are wondering if this might present a selling opportunity. Meanwhile, attention is also focused on the upcoming FED talk in Jackson Hole, WY, which could influence market dynamics. Additionally, tensions with the Canadian National Railway are being monitored closely, as they could disrupt transportation and supply chains.
The grain markets have taken a hit, contributing to the overall sloppiness in the trade. Traders are uncertain about their next moves, as they're bombarded with rollercoaster economic news that makes it difficult to predict market direction. With the possibility of rate cuts after the September meeting, there's added speculation about the future. Crop tours are just around the corner, and their findings will be crucial, especially with potential hurdles looming for the South American growing seasons. In the livestock sector, high milk prices and low feed costs offer some relief, but the recent drop in the cattle market adds to the uncertainty for beef.
The wheat market has resumed its decline, leading the broader grain markets lower. While the latest CPI data continues to exert some influence, traders are now shifting their focus to the upcoming crop tours next week. These tours are eagerly anticipated, as they will provide crucial insights into the condition of this year's crops. With questions looming about how these crops actually look, market participants are bracing for potential surprises. Meanwhile, cattle prices have taken a hit, adding another layer of complexity to the current agricultural market scenario.
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is influencing stock markets, adding to the complex mix of geopolitical tensions that are already impacting financial and commodity markets. As California's new biofuel policies are set to begin in September, traders are closely watching for potential ripple effects across the agricultural sector. Amid these developments, there are growing questions about whether the market has reached a bottom, especially with a significant amount of grain still left in the bins and this year's crop looking robust. Despite these challenges, the feeder cattle market remains strong, offering some stability in an otherwise uncertain landscape.
Grain markets are experiencing continued weakness as the industry grapples with the implications of recent data. The unexpected numbers have left many participants in a state of shock, causing a reassessment of market positions. There are also rising concerns about potential shortages in Growing Degree Units (GDUs), which could affect crop maturity and yields. As a result, the cash trade for grains has softened.
Jeff Peterson of Heartland Farm Partners recaps the factors that influenced the day's trade.1. What were the biggest surprises to you in the WASDE report today?2. What did you think of the corn and soybean yields overall?3. Any demand changes for corn and soybeans?4. How did the US ending stocks/stocks to use/values look?5. What do you think we will see for changes going forward?6. Anything we should be doing with our marketing plan?
This growing year has highlighted a significant problem: the contrast between the attitude in global agriculture versus ag stocks. Import barriers and tariffs have further complicated the market, impacting trade flows and pricing. The recent wheat purchase by Algeria has drawn attention, signaling potential shifts in global demand. As we approach the August 12th report, managing risk becomes increasingly crucial. Producers and traders must navigate these uncertainties carefully, balancing global market dynamics with the potential impacts of the upcoming report.
If you continue to focus on the problems in 15% of the Corn Belt, you may make poor marketing decisions by ignoring the conditions in the other 85%. Despite regional issues, overall numbers could be higher, as indicated by StoneX yield estimates. Attention is also on the South American growing season, which can impact global supply dynamics. The financial world and market sentiment play crucial roles in shaping the broader market outlook. Meanwhile, the livestock sector has experienced another drop, adding to the challenges faced by producers in navigating the current market environment.
It was another down day in the trade, with the equity markets continuing to capture attention. The upcoming August 12th WASDE report is highly anticipated, as it could show adjusted acres, potentially influencing market dynamics. Despite the broader market downturn, cattle managed to recover a bit, offering a glimmer of hope amidst the ongoing volatility.
The current situation is not a meltdown in the system but rather a correction in the equities, so there's no need to panic yet. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) charts are broken down by Darren. With the big crop report coming up on August 12th, there's significant anticipation about the numbers it will reveal. Meanwhile, the cattle market should not be written off just yet, as there is still upside potential to consider.
Looking back on the market week, there's been notable activity as traders anticipate the August 12 WASDE report and its insights on acreage crop potential. Throughout the week, market participants have been adjusting their positions based on various factors, including weather forecasts and geopolitical events. In the livestock sector, cattle feeders ended the week on a stronger note, performing better than the initial trade outlook suggested. This unexpected turnaround highlights the dynamic nature of the agricultural markets.
Today's FED talk is generating significant interest as it may impact economic conditions affecting agriculture. The size of this year’s crops is a major concern, with weather conditions being closely monitored for any potential impact on yields. Additionally, China's decision to buy beans from Brazil is adding another layer of complexity to the market dynamics, influencing global supply and demand patterns.
Now might not be the ideal time to maximize farm profits, given the current market conditions. The upcoming FED meeting tomorrow is adding uncertainty, along with ongoing weather concerns that could impact crop yields. Farmers are also eagerly awaiting the August 12th crop report for further insights. Meanwhile, the cattle market continues to experience roller coaster-like fluctuations, making it challenging to predict future trends.
Soybean prices are showing a slight improvement compared to Friday, while corn prices have risen. Weather models continue to play a crucial role in market fluctuations, adding uncertainty to the forecast. Political developments are also influencing market conditions. Despite the positive trend in corn, cattle prices have struggled, facing downward pressure. Additionally, the upcoming FED meeting is adding another layer of complexity to the agricultural market outlook.
Early short covering did little to support grain prices, as shifting weather models introduced new uncertainties. Stock movement has reverted back to trade, complicating the market outlook. The risk for old crop corn remains high, driven by fluctuating conditions and market dynamics. Meanwhile, feeder cattle prices are influenced by corn movement, creating a complex interplay between these two key agricultural sectors.
The midday GFS forecast indicates hot and dry conditions, which could impact both global and U.S. agricultural supplies. Export sales are currently lagging, raising concerns about market performance. The importance of currency fluctuations in the global market is becoming increasingly evident. Meanwhile, the cattle market is experiencing a strong day, though the latest On Feed numbers may reveal significant changes for the south. Additionally, economic factors such as consumer GDP and increasing layoffs are adding layers of complexity.
The latest crop ratings are in, providing crucial data as we approach the USDA's August estimate. Speculation about potential production reductions is growing, especially as warmer weather patterns set in. Meanwhile, the Black Sea region is closely monitored due to its weather conditions impacting global markets. In the bean market, a potential window of opportunity might be emerging. However, challenges persist in the livestock sector, with concerns about an insufficient supply of cattle. Additionally, the interplay of politics and market dynamics continues to influence agricultural trends and forecasts.
The corn and soybean markets today appear cautiously optimistic. The crop progress report yesterday did not bring any major surprises, but it underscored ongoing concerns about crop conditions. As we move into next week, crop conditions are likely to depend heavily on weather forecasts, which are currently mixed with some regions expecting beneficial rains while others may continue to experience dryness. The Hard Red Spring Wheat tour this week is expected to uncover a range of crop conditions, which could influence market sentiment. Key factors to watch in the corn and soybean markets going forward include next week's weather conditions and their impact on yields, crop condition reports, and any shifts in global demand and export activity.
Commercial selling happening on the cattleCould we see a turnaround Tuesday?Thoughts on hogs going higherGrains saw funds hitting the exit door
Computer issues overnightDramatic change in election outcomesCrop conditionsWeatherDrop in the cattle market
Disappointing cattle tradeCattle hit sell signals Cattle inventory for July not happeningStdy cash going into COF reportHogs technically looking betterGrains is a tough one to callMarket gets itself there in ahead of timeLow 4’s now what on corn
Is this a turnaround in the grainsFriday’s report was a miss…where do we go from hereChina building up commodity stocksBlack sea region weatherU.S. weather damage Nice strength in the cash market
Why has the corn and soybean markets been so volatile the last few weeks?When will the funds stop their selling of corn and soybeans?What is the next piece of information that could cause the markets to adjust?What is the best way to determine possible low prices in the corn and soybean markets?What do you see as some of the possible low prices for December corn futures?How can a person handle the stress the lower markets?
Ugly day in the marketsAssentation attempt Need to focus on macros in the tradeThis trade is NOT about the Friday reportStock market trade action Managing Risk
Bought the Russia story on a Thursday & sold it FridayWASDE Report breakdownNice to get a bullish, somewhat friendly report to deal withRaw number looks friendly but stocks to use?Feed number revision
Beans turn aroundCONABBreak in the dollarPre-report jitters?IS there a 2014 repeat?Light volume trade for cattle
7/5/24JOBS NumberHow weak is the economy?What are the FEDs next steps? How will the dollar movement effect future export opportunities?New weekly highs for the soft red wheatShort covering and the tradeBuenos Aries Grain Exchange and harvest estimatesWeather maybe warmer & dryerCash cattle making some trade options
7/3/24Market lacks direction with holidayChinese buying & bean rumorsSoy oil market why is it blowing up?Mexico and corn Rumors on Russia & export restrictionsGood technical action week for cattle
7/2/24Last weeks report still weighing inHoliday this weekWhere do the funds want to take all this info?Do we have a lot undersold?Grain holding up in the binsStrong feeder market
7/1/24’25 acresSecond half of the year what are seasonalsHow low or high could we goCattle market struggles Overall feed costs
6/28/241. How did the planted acreage report look?2. What did the state level numbers look like for corn and soybeans?3. What do you think we will see for changes going forward?4. How did the quarterly stocks report look?5. What did the state level quarterly stocks look like?6. Now that the reports are out of the way, what do you think the market focuses on going forward.7. What should be done with remaining old crop and also with new crop?
6/27/24Negotiated price on cattle came higherNew all time high in the cattleFlooding, crop reportsWeather in general Northen hemisphere drought
6/26/24Not that markets do not care-looking at the big picture nationallyCrushing facilities at the ports in ChinaCattle go higher with no news
6/25/24Bottom coming for the cornHow much grain is still in the bins?Flooding is it weighing in much on the trade?’93 wet tradeCattle market just wondering
6/24/24Weather is a tale of two different storiesEnd of monthPrice action funds big shortsCrop conditions out this afternoonWhat are insurance people seeing?Crop scouts not what we needCorn had a good recoveryWheat strugglesBig report on FridayCattle had a nice day after bearish report
6/21/24Reversal seasonal patternsHeatWhy markets not accepting weather marketsOne week away from big reportsSell don’t sell on these grainsGlobal tensions China & EUDairy movementCattle prices -are packers that short bought?
6/20/24China changing monetary trade Theme of ’24 would be a hard demand yearWeather issues going to stick aroundCattle market has a weird vibe to it
6/18/24Crop conditions report of MondayWheat corn SpreadCorn price action & cattle feedersPre-holiday market tradeStoring wheat if you don’t like bidsPrice resistance and support levelsWeather
6/17/24Hogs turn around after ugly tradeMixed lower cattle marketWhat do we now with these grains?
6/13/24Follow through grainTakeaway from the USDA reportsWeatherJoblessLivestock and the bounce in the trade
6/11/24Back in fill in the cattle marketCorn sold off by session endWheat oversold and a correction in placeWednesday data dump
6/10/24Intro into the weather marketWednesday data dumpCrop progress reportCattle market turning themselves around BUT are they pattern stuck?Can hogs move higher-with recent China talks
Wednesday was another lower day across the board for grain and livestock contracts.Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist with StoneX, breaks down the trade factors.Topics include: - Outside Markets and the money flow - Funds are selling the ag commodities - Crop Conditions - Cattle Market
On today's edition of the Channel Final Bell, Darin Fessler at Lakefront Futures joins Chad Moyer to discuss the latest market activity. Topics: - Broad commodity selloff- Crop ratings-Weather vs plant vs prevent plant- Any opportunities beyond weather?- Keys for trade the rest of this week
Kyle Bumsted with Allendale recaps today's market movers.- Macro market influence- Other commodities feel the selling pressure- Grains, meats ugly on a Monday- Cash cattle/boxed beef topped?
Heather Ramsey with the ARC Group in Lincoln recaps today's market activity.Topics:- Time for weather to impact South American Production- Local basis opportunities for old and new crop- Planting progress and extended planting with yield potential
5/28/241. What is going on with the corn and soybean markets?2. What are the factors that are impacting the corn and soybean market?3. How much impact is planting progress having on the corn and soybean markets?4. Are the funds still short the corn and soybean markets?5. Why did soybeans sell off today?6. What will it take to keep the corn and soybean markets going higher?7. Are we getting close to needing to make old crop and new crop sales?
5-23-24Global crop weatherWeather S&D a huge influenceInflation & FED talksCattle on Feed
5/22/24FEDSBlack Sea conditions for wheatPlanting progress for corn & beansWeather in Brazil & Argentina
5/21/24Turn around Tuesdaywheat held on to the gains of MondayPlanting progressWeatherCattle reversed it's weaknessHogs just sick on the prices
5/13/24Wheat bullish, corn slight & not in corn from FridayLackluster price actionWheat get out of the wayHogs don’t look good
5/10/24 What did the corn and soybean numbers from the WASDE report look like? How did USDA adjust the supply and demand numbers from last month? Was there much for adjustments to South American Production? What do you think South American Production numbers will do go forward? What will the corn and soybean markets look at going forward? How does the corn market look technically? What does the soybean market look like from a technical perspective? Any actions need to be taken on our marketing plan?
5/8/24Brazil/Argentina expatiationsFriday’s Reports Russia weatherFEDS & interest rates What was the movement in the cattle
5/7/24Why are we rallying & how far could it go?Turn around TuesdayHow bad is the beans in BrazilDaily wire movementBoxed beef influence on trade
5-6-24Beans up 30Wheat upCorn up 10What is driving the market?Weather, flooding in Brazil, 2nd corn crop dryFEDS & interest ratesQuiet cattle trade
5/3/24Corn & beans have a lot to unpackWeather in South AmericaWeather in the U.S.Plenty of time to plantCattle movement
5/2/24RussiaRains in BrazilArgentine crop slashedUS cropsCattle market & headlines
4/30/24Why are we seeing so much weakness in the corn, soybean, and wheat markets today?Why is soybean oil under some much selling pressure?Will the market be more concerned about the planting pace going forward?What are the funds corn and soybean position in the market?Will the corn market become more concerned about South American Weather?What will the corn and soybean markets watch going forward?
4-29-24Weather brought much rainWhat caused Chicago wheat to drop?Crop progress reportTo early to call planting delay?Lower cattle on a Monday
4/25/24Wheat & the weatherIs wheat & corn bringing beans alongIs influenza working into the grainsCould cattle & grains trade togetherStrong cash movement
4/24/24Quiet day in the outside marketsQuiet in the grains, except wheatManaged money stays short, what's making them nervousS. America production estimates, what's the cash market telling usA game of headlines in cattle
4/23/24Funds on a buying spree in wheatDrop in U.S. wheat conditionsSupporting evidence on less corn in BrazilBeans being drug alongWeatherCrop conditions with disease in S.A.
4-22-24KC wheat thoughts on good start Rally in the marketsChasing the headlinesStrong cattle market off Bullish COF reportHigher hogs on a Monday
4/19/24Geo-politicalE15 year roundCrop progress with wet weatherArgentina weather concernsExports to MexicoDollar movement & export potential Pull back on the beef?Boxed beef firming?
4/18/24Exploring fuel & feed commodity marketSouth American production & cash pricesWeatherHigher cattle ahead of COF report
4-17-24Biden Tariff & ChinaStock market pressureCrude oilEthanol market production offHPAI in MichiganCattle market struggled with getting near green
4-16-24Is a base in place for the cattle?Cash movementCOF on FridayHow are cattle weights?Short term tech oversold?Weather for effecting the marketsBull spreading in the cornBeans missed the boat with exports again
4-12-241. How are the corn and soybean markets looking?2. What are the factors to watch in the corn and soybean markets going forward?3. How does the weather look in South America?4. What are the corn and soybean crops like in South America?5. How does the US weather look to you?6. Any adjustments that need to be made to our marketing plan?
4/10/24Unknown bean saleBean report positioning any Brazil changes?CPIUSDA Report out on ThursdayRunning discourse on wheat & weatherInsurance Day is here
4/9/24Market out of sortsHeading into Thursday’s reportRallies are selling opportunitiesNASS to discontinue July Cattle ReportUptick in the livestock trade
4/4/24Outside market push…good April?Chasing the positive vs. the rumorsRussia grain investigationMexico buys U.S. beansHPAI
4-3-24•Chasing the headlines•Cattle market continues to react to HPAI•Cautious feel to beef demand•Grain market turn around
4-2-24Corn action lowerSoybeans movedWhat is the macro pictureAre we still reacting to the Thursday reportHPAI in dairyHogs make new highs
4/1/24Carryover from the Thursday report33% increase in corn exportsDiversification in ag
3-29-241. What do you think corn and soybean acres will be in the Planted Acreage report in June? 2. How will the current corn and soybean acreage numbers get used by the market? 3. How would you describe the corn market at this time? 4. What does the corn market look like technically? 5. How does the soybean market look to you? 6. What will it take to keep the corn and soybean markets going higher? 7. Any adjustments in our marketing plan?
3/28/24Look at today’s USDA reportsDrought monitorAgro-Consult soybeansCattle & higher trade
3/27/24HPAI in dairy-but is it weighing in on the grains?Lots of hogs in ChinaUSDA Report out tomorrowStalemate in WallstreetBrazil crop production numbersPort of Baltimore & fertilizer
3-26-24Uptrends into the crop report buy the rumorGrains stocks from residual use numbersWeather in SA-playing catch upBean & palm oilCattle movement lower
3/25/24More in-depth look at the Cattle on Feed numbersQuarterly Hogs & Pigs report on Thursday *March 28th Report-what to prepare for
3/22/24Comparison of last week to thisChina draining everyone’s cupboardsCattle on Feed reportLivestock movement
3-20-24Feds talkingChina stimulus Beans over $12Brazil corn risksMidwest weather going forwardMarch 8th crop report
3-19-24MIXED BEAN ACTION TODAYCORN STUCKWHEAT HAS A REASON TO MOVE HIGHER?HOGS OVERVALUEDCATTLE TRIED TO TRADE HIGHER, FAILEDCATTLE ON FEED REPORT PREVIEW
3/18/24Grains moved lower on the corn after a stronger startHaving that marketing planWheat had some strong moves
3-15-249 days till report day followed by a holidayWhat a week for the grainsBeans trading both sides of the tradeBean oil is the one to watchFund money changing their tune on corn
3-14-24Selling dayMarch goes off the boardWetter US weatherWetter South American weatherDid beans just give up? China cancellations Higher cattle weights
3/13/24Weather concernsBreak in the bean oilBeans and corn recoveredCan corn center itself as we go forwardCONAB numbersJune live cattle closed above Friday highs
3/12/24Corn unchanged across the boardSolid technicals in the beansCONAB numbersFriday’s reportsEnd of month pressureHigher boxed beef
3/11/24Wheat trade & China cancelationHow is harvest in South America?Dive into CONAB numbers ahead of reportLower beansLivestock exports slowing down
3-8-24WASDE highlightsInfluence of USDExport OpportunitiesMarketing windowsLivestock recap
3-6-24How do you see the corn and soybean markets? What does corn demand look?How does soybean demand look like?What is the latest on South America?
3-5-24Been a marketing dayWheat leading everyone lowerCheap Russian wheatChina buying stocks of grainGold all time record highs
3-4-24China back in the market for grainE15 & aviation fuels with corn marketWill we have an acreage war this year?Summer weather prospects Lower cattle marketDairy movement
2/29/24Here at Commodity ClassicMarkets flat todayUpdated producer surveyFeeder corn spreadCattle trade picks up
2/28/29Here at Commodity ClassicFriday announcement from Ag Sec & EPACorn and beans higher mid weekEnd of month of on ThursdayWeather
2-26-24Corn up 8 Beans up 3Marketing with emotion over the past weekLivestock secure feedstuffs
2/23/24Sanctions on Russian & ChinaPanic trading patternCorn dropped below $4Year round E15 political move?Dairy movementHigher cattle trade to finish the week
2/22/24South American WeatherRumor in China on bean reservesDominos falling in the marketsWheat flash in the panLive cattle were not able to hold greenCattle on Feed report tomorrow afternoon
2-21-24South American WeatherRumor in China on bean reservesChatter in Brazil over bean acreage increases Firmed up late in the day for hogsStronger cattle numbers
2/20/22Wheat being the leaderFundamentals haven’t really changedDollar movementCorn crop in South AmericaWeather South AmericaChina is backConsumer confidence & its effects on cattleBullish fundamentals on cattlePork exports outstanding
2/16/24Ag Outlook and the marketsDollar in the tradeWorkings of this market with cheap grains from other countries
2/15/24Ag outlook numbersAre soybeans going to go below $11Average prices for corn/beans/wheat Livestock section of ag outlook numbers
2-13-24Consumer Price IndexSpreads in the tradeLower movement in the beansDrop in the cattle
2-12-24Supply buffers in placeExport numbers are okayEconomics down the pipeline?Is it our spring that will be any indicators?Mixed livestock tradeLower cattle numbers
2-9-24What did you think of the Brazilian corn and soybean production adjustments difference between CONAB and USDA?Why are we continuing to see weakness in the corn market?Is it too early to start trading concerns on the Safrinha corn crop?How does the soybean market look to you?*What is it going to take to turn the corn and soybean markets higher?
2-7-24•US District Court in AZ ruling on dicamba•WASDE•Harvest & planting in Brazil•Report on Twitter that could see a drop in Argentina•Is China’s economy seeing a market boost?•Why lower cattle today?
2-6-24How would you best some of the markets at this time?Is the US Dollar Index having much impact on the corn and soybean markets?What is the latest on Brazil and Argentina? How do you think the crop size for corn and soybeans for South America will compare to last year?When will CONAB give their next update?What are you expecting to see for changes in the WASDE report on Thursday
2-5-24Dollar influenceChinese equity marketsBack & forth in the crude oilGeo political Trump talk
2-2-24mostly weak grains to end the week.world weatherinfluence of the dollar on exportsenergy roller coasterfund activitykeys for trade next week
2-1-24Export sales How important is Feb markets going to be?Cease fire in Israel Cattle market trade with report
1-31-24Beans turn aroundMixed cornGlobal pressureWhat should we be doing right now?
1-30-24China vacationBrazilian port strikeShorts in the grainsWeather factorWednesday cattle reportCash movementHogs move higher
1-29-24How soon are the grains going to stop going downWhich shrinking faster? Demand or supplyWeather in South AmericaBrazil beans coming to the U.S.Global geo political Cattle closed lower-too far too fast?Wednesday report for cattle
1-26-24Grain markets seeing money going into feedersU.S. cannot compete for China’s attentionSome good movement in the hog marketsCattle trade pushes the positive
1-25-24Highest cattle movementLight commercial buyingWorries of cattle conditionsCold storage numbers*Drop in corn & beans
1-24-24Culling sows in ChinaStimulus & ChinaSoybean prices in Brazil vs. GulfUSSEC #'sHarvest & planting in BrazilEthanol #*Protein Sector why higher
1-23-24Day of spreads for the marketsIs market that worried about S.A. weatherAcre numbers for ‘24Strong livestockWhat pushed hogs?
1-22-24Positive market tradeAcreage numbersCrop progress in S.A.China & the economyChina’s exportsCOF report market reactionsConsumer confidence & protein purchases
1-19-24Worried farmers as the market trade unfoldsSouth American weather has added its pressureBasis values on cornCattle processing & the weather
1-18-24Making sense of market turnaroundMovement of the dollarBasis Boxed beef tradeCattle on Feed reportWeather and the livestock industry
1-17-24Soymeal holding beans captiveChina & its relationship for beansChina economy 175 pass on cashWeights and the cattle
1-16-24Digesting USDA numbers good & bad news Flash sale!Headline driven marketsBeans could we see a bounce before acreage reportRecord large crush reportCold weather & livestock
1-15-24 MLK Holiday Friday WASDE reactions Markets will reopen tonight Some interesting tech patternsWinter kill concernsCold weather & livestock
1-11-24Data DumpMore coming tomorrowTaiwan electionCrude oil and energy marketsChina & trade going forwardWeather in cattle country
1-9-24CONAB Report out tomorrowSets the tone for our Friday report look at ‘23Frustrated with down marketsTaiwan president election Hogs had a nice move-day 4Cattle has had a good run-could corn change that?
1-8-24How do you describe the corn and soybean markets at this time?Why are we continuing to see the weakness in the corn and soybean markets with still weather concerns in South America?What does it take to turn the corn and soybean markets around?When is the next opportunity to get info to turn the market around?What are the factors that the market are going to be watching going forward?
1-5-24Lower corn & soybeansWheat saw positivesExport opportunities Brazil crop productionDollar tradeHigher hogs-is a bottom in place?*Cattle saw some struggles
1-3-24weather in South AmericaDomestic Crush corn and soybeansChina importsminimal volatility in livestockupcoming cattle inventory reportpreview for the rest of the week
1-4-24Beans took another hitRain again in BrazilWhat do survey numbers have to say?Wet areas are drying outWinter corn crop-is there concerns?Boxed beef numbers
1-2-24Cattle showed an impressive start to the new yearHogs saw struggles*Grain markets lower on the trade after rains and world events over the weekend.
12-29-23What would be a good word to describe the corn and soybean markets this past year?What has surprised you about the corn and soybean markets since harvest?How do the corn and soybean markets look to you as we end the year?How do the current corn and soybean prices compare to last year at this time?What are the main factors to watch going forward?When will be the next chance to see adjustments to United States and World production
12-28-23Lower corn & beansRunning out of steamIs beans a wait & see weather trade feel?Wheat higher Livestock see a Thursday slideHogs continue their lower numbers
12-27-23Grains mixed to lower on the daySouth American WeatherExports to pick up into '24Cattle Market-not a lot of cash trade
12-26-23Final trading week of ‘23Welcomed Christmas moistureFavorable South American WeatherBorder reopening gave wheat & corn a liftCould we see some yearend allocations? COF ReportH&P Report
12-21-23Mexico Bridge Heading into '24Fundamentals involved in the tradeSmall rebound in the cornMovement of livestock markets with two reports out on Friday
12-20-23Beans in a wait mode for weatherConsumer confidence indexOutlook for 2024Wheat pressure on the pricesRoller Coaster for the livestock
- How would describe the current situation in the corn and soybean markets?2. What are the current weather conditions like in Brazil?3. How is the soybean crop doing in Brazil?4. Will Brazilian corn be impacted much?5. How are the corn and soybean crops doing in Argentina?6. Has Argentina seen much for changes with their new president?7. How does export demand look for soybeans?
12-18-23Move higher in the cattleRan out of buyersMoving into a holiday tradeAre corn & wheat moving in sync? South American bean productionLooking into the last two weeks of trading
12-15-23Quiet trade Good finishStating to get the end of year feelsSouth American weatherExport opportunitiesWhere is demand & where is the Chinese?FEDS & ratesHigher cattle-hearing higher prices for bred cows
12-14-23End of 23 what do we do for market prep?Weather in BrazilExportLull in the Chinese hog marketWhy didn’t the markets really react to Utah news Cattle see green today
12-13-23Fed policy decision Argentina economic announcement with changesBrazil crop size3 nice up days in beef
12-12-23Impressive trade in wheatDaily wire saw some bean movementTurn around Tuesday on the beansTwo days in a row cattle are higherHow are the packer margins?LRP & last weekConsumer confidence
12-11-23Beans had a heck of a dayRaboBank & higher interest rates for those not reaching certain guidelinesEnvironmental scores & farmers (& consumers) creditsChina exports are down-no surpriseWeatherCan we keep beef green on the screen?
12-8-231. How did the US corn numbers look in the WASDE report?2. Any adjustments in the US soybean numbers?3. How South American Corn production look?4. What did the South American soybean numbers look like?5. Are you seeing any other crop information out of South America?6. Is Brazil’s weather still a concern?7. What will the corn and soybean markets focus on going forward?
12-7-23Pre WASDE grain tradeConabeRussian drone strikeExport sales U.S. WheatExport numbers on meatsCattle trade-WHY such a strong flip in the trade
12-6-23Cattle market: what is going on fundamentally?Technical? People tired of getting beat upHogs better than cattleWheat made a bottomDemand for soft wheatWhat about corn-own trade world?
12-5-23Lower trade seen within the soybeansChina markets & hog industry struggles with ASFDemand is there for U.S. wheat from China & Japan wanting food gradeRussian wheat & UkraineFeeder cattle marketsStill not a lot of Saturday kills out there
12-4-23Cattle market dealt with technicalsCattle market not done yetRoller coaster marketsChina buys wheatCorn market just flatSouth American weather-should we care right now?
12-1-23What is going on with South American weather & soybeansReversals in the trade?FEDS not giving much of a signal Downside once again on the cattle marketHog market is mess
11-30-23Cash to be traded yet this weekExport numbers not good on beefEverything is going higher-but not straight upNot bullish on hogsOPEC count U.S. production & exportsDollar in general is headed lowerExport sales huge for corn & soybeansWhat do we need to reach USDA goals?Wheat made a bottom?
11-29-23What does Arlan see in these grain markets?KC Wheat took a jump todayBeans & BrazilEthanol trade & biofuelsWild time in the cattle marketCow slaughter is still high
11-28-23Higher cattleAre cattle lows maybe in place?End of month-Did we run out of sellersExpanded limits on cattle tomorrowCorn still moves lowerBeans still the grain bright spot?
11-24-231. How do the corn and soybeans markets look to you today?2. What did the corn and soybean markets do for the week?3. What are the main factors the market will be looking at going forward?4. Is Crude Oil having much impact?5. How does South American weather look?6. What is the latest on the Mississippi river?7. How does corn and soybean demand look?8. What do the corn and soybean basis levels look like?9. Is there anything your looking at doing with your grain marketing plan?
11-22-23Dry weather in Brazil but still record crop talkChina wants Brazilian beansConsumer sentiment indexAnother setback in beans$42 drop in the feeders
11-21-23Bean markets continue their wild weekChina buyingArgentina government changesDrop in livestock
11-20-23Argentina election newsHoliday trade weekFirst Notice Day next weekExport days steady but not higherA lot of ground to make up in cornWeather in beansCOF report reactions
11-16-23Brazil weatherChinese soy purchases Biggest sales in 11 years this morningBig sell off in cattle today
11-15-23Biden XI MeetingGeo Political lack of excitement Crush reportWheat movementCOF report out on Friday
11-14-23Beans continue to rock & rollBrazilian dryness What is the broader picturePull back layersDo we roll with what we haveCorn dragged higher by beansWhile wheat plays in their own sandboxCattle see tech resistance Struggle for hogs
11-13-23In the first segment we cover the grain complex. Weather outlook in South America. The possible delays its creating in the Safrina corn crop. Along with the wheat outlook in the US and can demand destruction be offset by supply concerns. Second segment focuses on the macro market environment and technicals in the livestock complex.
11-10-23Report RecapWeather in South AmericaChart conversation on cattleNo export announcements
11-9-23WASDEWorld Numbers out of UkraineChinese inflation numbers of last nightBase change possibilities Manure dump in the cattle market
11-8-23Russian missile hits civilian shipDrought in center & west BrazilExport numbersDollar concerns?
11-7-23South American weatherExport numbers saw good September numbersIs it a macro correction day?How much are the fund managers involved?
Sue Martin, Ag & Investment, joins the Channel Final Bell to kick the week off. Martin details the support of the wheat market on Monday. Meanwhile the soybean trade continues to find multiples avenues of support.
11-3-23Friday market rallyJob numbers came in What does that mean from a FEDS perspective?Dollar saw a breakPrice competitive with South AmericaMidwest water flowDryness in South AmericaDouble bottom in corn?Flooding in Southern BrazilCrop harvest progress Wheat is up a bit...need to watch Russia & minesWhat caused a cattle drop today?
11-2-23Spread price actions in the grainsFEDs grain vs. livestockWinter wheat standsSouth American weather concerns *Higher feeder cattle
11-1-23StoneX South American Production estimatesUS Production estimates coming outFED TalksAFS in China
10-31-23Jobs numbers coming out this weekNeed something to get some reverse trends going onCurrent FED meeting underwayAre we going to trade the U.S. crop anymore?Any possible USDA changes in numbers?When do we start SA weather & production?Feb/March/AprilEl Nino Movement in dairyCurrent livestock mood
10-30-23How do the corn and soybean markets look to you?What do you think are the most important factors to be watching in the market at this time?How do you feel about corn and soybean export demand?How does the corn market look to you from the technical prospective?What do the technicals look like on soybeans?Is there anything we should be watching for on basis?What should be done with the unsold bushels that have to go to town?
10-27-23A lot of global macro’s in this tradeDislocations in the trade?ADM CEO on bean crush in Argentina Meal back in the driver’s seat because of itWrap up of harvest now what is your marketing plan?Cattle was able to finish the week strongerCOF & heifer numbersHogs strongNew month headed our way
10-26-23Ukraine shipmentsWhy did wheat turn higher?Soybeans drop...is meal still golden for demand?Solid weak of exportsSouth American weatherDrop in the cattle trade, was Wednesday a flash in the pan*Heifers into feedlots
10-25-23Struggles in the stock marketBrazil & weatherWeather in the U.S. Soymeal market has the greatest volatilityExport sales pictureChina stimulating the economy
10-24-23Beans in the driver’s seatCorn market is stuckSouth America weatherBlood bath for cattle not as bad today
10-23-23Back & forth in the marketsCattle on Feed Report from FridayHUGE drop in the cattle marketBrazil makes headway in plantingAnother big drop on the Mississippi
10-16-23- Strength in soybeans - cool start in corn - Export and fund activity - Wheat stabilizing - Cattle pulled between weakening indicators and tight supplies
10-17-23The Final Bell is a daily interactive wrap-up of what happened each day in the commodity markets. The Rural Radio Network will visit with a wide range of analysts to stay on top of market trends to help farmers and ranchers make informed decisions.
10-18-23 - BEANS WELL SUPPORTED - MIDDLE EAST/INTEREST RATE INFLUENCE - ENERGY SITUATION - FRIDAY'S CATTLE ON FEED REPORT
10-19-23 - Corn/Soy demand picture - Basis opportunities - Influence of Israel/Hamas/Iran - Keys to marketing plan now
10-13-23WASDE reportFinancials & FEDSWild equity trade on a FridayPrecious metals up Technical seen in the tradeMarket structure needs to change
10-12-23WASDE reportHarvest numbersExport demandGlobal wheat stocksStronger cash for the cattle
10-11-23Very interested cattle marketTight cattle market Daily technical on the markets for cattleWar premiums going into the marketsWASDE pressureFeds & interest rates
10-10-23Corn in the harvest modeWhat is the fund activity like?Commercial activity for beansNobody wants the U.S. wheatWaiting on the rainCommercial activity for cattleGoldman underwaySteady cash this week possible
10-6-23How would you describe the corn and soybean markets at this time?What are the be numbers to watch in the WASDE report on Thursday of next week?How will the corn and soybean yields be determined in the WASDE report next week?What do you think happens to the corn and soybean yields going forward?How is South American weather looking? What is the planting progress like in South America?What do you think happens to basis levels?Concerns with Ukraine grain exports*What would you do with unsold corn and soybeans that need to go to town?
10-5-23Markets doing a bit of turn aroundRussia & Ukraine’s latest war strikeCrude oilWeaker consumerEquity markets for cattleS&P 500 vs. feeder cattleBroader macro pic that needs to be watched
10-4-23StoneX Yields are outYields are better than expectedSA planting progressCheap wheat on the worldUkraine & exportsChina buying*Protein markets
10-3-23Pending Midwest rain & harvestDid heat of last week push maturity?Exports picking upHuge drop in feeder market
10-2-23Friday reportHarvest progressMexico and corn from the U.S.Mississippi River levelsCash marketing-what does that mean for Midwest farmersMarkets relived no government shutdown
9-29-23Markets react to USDA reportEnd of month & end of quarterWhat are the fundamentals doing?Yield numbers coming inH&P ReportGov’t shutdown loomingDemand is out there just not in the U.S. yetWater levels
9-28-23Macro economics is what is weighing in Low put in the corn?End of quarterOutside influenceStack up of USDA reports of Gov’t closesMarket will still function without the gov’t if there is a shutdownNot a lot of good demand for grainsChina & politicsCattle turned themselves around
9-27-23Macroeconomics on the tradeFriday’s stocks reportBrazil & early planting progressWhere is China getting beans?Protein said of the trade is struggling
9-26-23Lack of news in the grainsMarket trades on auto pilotGov’t shutdown possibility Shipping cropsEthanol margins-dealing with glass ceiling Cattle market but what could be the why?Outside dollar pressureConsumer demand
9-25-23Grains turned around from lower overnight tradeMississippi River & salt water Basis quiet during harvest?Quiet tradeWheat trying to work out a bottomSouth American WeatherMovement of the beef market
9-22-23•Technical on corn & beans•Harvest management •Fundamentals on corn & beans•China & beans•Export concerns heading into harvest
9-21-23Risk off across the boardEven energy coming off highsSoft markets so some positivesWhat’s up next on the economic front?FEDS comments yesterday having any effect today?Feeder cattle market at an important technical levelSome support from July/August contract highs
9-20-23FEDs statementSpeed of crop maturity Is there questioning of the crop sizeSeed sizeTuesday was not a good technical day for cattleReversal on Wednesday?
9-19-23Soybeans still strugglingCorn harvest pressureCrop progress Water concerns on the MississippiCattle still trading lower after last week
9-18-23Lower Monday tradeHarvest pressure-early numbers might not be so badCattle selling offOats limit downHight volume for oatsOat corn spreadWheat lower helped drag cornBeans didn’t look all that good
9-15-23Ukraine Russia wheat planting weatherUAW strikeExpectations for South American growing seasonBean sizeDairy has found a happy new homeHigher cattle trade
9-14-23Cattle market saw highs in the cattle/feedersIs this a good time to look at filling the feedlot?Livestock looking at 2017 & 2023WASDE still being talked about*Do you sell grain or store after harvest?
9-13-23Markets still reacting to WASDE numbersTrade talks export opportunitiesGlobal pressureIs now the time to increase cattle in the feedlot?
9-11-23 Food scarcity is going to get tight again The pressure in the Black Sea Region will continue to grow Production concerns in South East Asia Planting delays for Brazil? USDA report out tomorrow mid-day Cattle market turning up? Cattle bullish long term?
9-8-23Harvest pressureWeather dry downTuesday crop reportIs it a wait till January numbers?Combines need to tell the storyLack of demand for the cropLow riversEthanol boostHigher cash cattle
9-7-23 Strong livestock day Open interest came in yesterday & proved today Never sell a sleeping market Higher sale prices at the barns for cattle Waiting for cash Getting closer to heifer retention? New feeder contract hogs Higher Thursday hogs Desire out there to hear some yield numbers & see trading to correlate Bulls talking heat weighing in on the heat camp Argue yield until January
9-6-23Crop ratingsHow is the crop finishing & its impactWheat has some support in the tradeHeavy rains in southern Brazil-has some wheat attachmentsExport programs for corn & soybeansWeight options on cattle and hogs is movement early & the heat
9-5-23Are we going to start seeing harvest pressure?Talk of early harvest-but is crop ready?Softer exportsCrude oil Mixed livestock trade
9-1-23-End of the week market sentiment and trader mentality-Heat stress on corn and soybeans-Technical market picture for corn and soybeans-Technical picture of the cattle market-Use of options in a choppy market like cattle
8-31-23Dec 13 corn vs Dec 23 cornTracking of beans very similarWhat does this mean coming out of Labor Day?Component of industry that focus on condition of cropWater on the Mississippi & Panama Canal Does this mean PNW shipping option
8-30-23 Delivers posted Boxed beef stepping back? Weights are higher Tech picture Southern cash vs. northern Weather is still a talking point-but are we done with it? Export numbers Trade Brazil & exports
8-29-23 Crop rating dropping more than anticipated Stocks rally New lows in wheat South America Chinese demand China still buying from Brazil Mixed livestock with lower grains
8-28-23
What did you think of the Profarmer numbers? How does Profarmer numbers normally compare to final numbers? What are some of your most important take aways from the Profarmer Crop Tour? What factors will the market focus on going forward?
8-25-23 Crop conditions China Ethanol trade & crop concerns? Cattle-how long can they hold out on cash? Higher boxed beef
8-24-23 Cattle had a nice day Heat stress both livestock & crops Heat & outside markets hitting the corn Dollar holding on to multi year highs Bean fundamentals “Oats knows” Wheat struggles due to Black Sea Region Pro Farmer tour-
8-23-23 China booking beans Drop in the dollar Crop tour underway-tour routes Corn demand story Outlook for South American growing season Black Sea region heating up again
8-22-23 Lower grains Hot dry weather to finish stuff off Crops like Swiss cheese Weekly crop progress Demand for crops this fall Is U.S. beans pricing themselves out of the market? Heat effecting markets in anyway? Waiting on cash?
8-21-23 Pro Farmer Tour is underway Cattle on Feed Financial Times & Black Sea Region China imports- China’s property sector
8-18-23 - Wheat spikes higher - Soybeans supported - Corn slides into the weekend - Technicals showing upside - Weather, Black Sea and Crop Tour - Clean sweep higher in livestock
8-17-23 Models are getting hotter Chinese demand with current financial issues First close above the 5-day moving average for corn Competitiveness underway in the markets Pro-Farmer next week Cattle sees some pullbacks Mixed bag on data with dollar
8-16-23 Another Russian attack what will happen next China & the economy Brazil beans cheaper then U.S. beans Hot & dry Stock market & ag
8-15-23 1. Why are we seeing the weakness in corn, soybeans, and wheat today?
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How did the NOPA crush numbers look?
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What stood out to you from the crop progress numbers from yesterday?
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How is the Safrinha corn harvest progressing?
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What does the Brazilian weather look like going forward?
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What do you think carry will do going forward?
8-14-23 Macro news China/Russia & Argentina Funds vs. the fundamentals WASDE with Livestock & ethanol Weather market not dead yet Will be feeders be topping? Tunnel vision for the wheat
8-10-23 Friday report-outlook Weather continues to be a focus Improvement in exports Russia/Ukraine Charts due for a bounce Another decent performance on the cattle market Boxed beef is the low there? Holiday prep for markets continues
8-9-23 Prep ahead of Friday’s report Inflation data out tomorrow What is Wall Street’s thoughts? How is that a grain impact? China’s economy & crop production they are in deflation
8-8-23 Turn around on the grains Mixed to lower wheat Running out of sellers ahead of Friday Solid rains over the weekend Higher dollar Is wheat calling wolf? Report outlook for Friday Lower cattle-wait on cash? Is their support coming for pork cutouts?
8-7-23 What is going on in the lower beans? Wheat market and overall trade Friday’s report Some much-needed rains in IA A drop in the cattle trade
8-4-23 Sell signals in hogs? Negativity on the meat trade due to CA Happy with the cash cattle market? What do you see as the S&D pic for live cattle Weather is grain market focus Funds want to push sell orders Export business Are we getting desensitized to Russia/Ukraine
8-3-23 Nervous about the slide Saw a bounce in beans Russia attacks on export infrastructure Early yield estimates ahead of next Friday’s report Quieter tone with livestock Cattle benefits from down corn
8-2-23 Macro kind of a trading day Ridge running storms will be watched Risk off trading day Bullish stories in grain & livestock U.S. credit-vulnerability is here Ukraine port bombing StoneX Brazil numbers
8-1-23 Recap of rally in corn Where did we fail & why What to look for in next week's Friday's report Buy the beans-different balance sheet than the corn Good boxed beef Good day for fats & feeders
7-31-23 Lower grains-its that time of year Hard to get a rally Weather turns itself around Export numbers a nice surprise Fats mixed while live cattle lower
7-28-23 Grains had a crazy ride Heat & pod fill Stronger livestock on a Friday If corn keeps dropping feeders could rise next week Cattle market rose
7-27-23 Rally on Wall Street Bombing of ports-Black Sea Region Hot dry conditions & heat issues for crops Hail in Minnesota & Wisconsin Hesitation in cattle Waiting on the cash
7-26-23 Inflation is the word of the day Wheat market reacts to volatility Good reasons for beans trading like they are today No demand story for corn or wheat Feed usage for livestock Heat hitting cattle *Prop 12 weighs in still
7-25-23 What do you see as the main drivers in the market at this time? What would happen if Ukraine isn’t able to ship anything out of the country? How did the crop condition rating look to you? What do you think the rating will do next Monday? How does the soil moisture look to you Anything on the demand side that is standing out to you?
7-24-23 Geopolitics in our markets Rice is an important market to talk about Energy markets & fertilizer South American prospects for the crop cycle Major turn in dairy with limit up action
7-21-23 Grain markets which direction? Weather good, demand, crop outlook Unrest in Ukraine/Russia Global unrest Profit taking Cluster storms Crop size-crap shoot at the moment Energy prices Is there a top in the livestock? Big reversal on the 12th of July
7-20-23 Weather dominates Black Sea region still an issue Need to respect these markets right now Weekly export numbers Basis movement Lower cattle-even with lower corn
7-19-23 Weather concerns next week? Black Sea Grain Initiative-headlines Markets lower Monday & then exploded What could happen in the overnight Markets having trouble holding gains Higher corn & lower feeders Tough economic times for pork
7-18-23 Weather is key Today’s trade was a market gift Northern IA/MN has concerns High volume trade Is Dec corn about overbought? Black Sea taking a back seat? Is there uncertainty with the feeder cattle & hogs? Big cattle report out on Friday
7-17-23 Lack of follow through after last week’s strong close Where is the weather premium at? Negative wheat influences the corn Russian Ukraine Deal Lower dollar Mixed cattle
7-14-23 Low volume & open interest Weather concerns moving forward WASDE week reactions Ethanol margins Grain Initiative in Ukraine Waiting on the cash cattle Feeders & corn moving together Pressure for hogs
7-13-23 Whip lash from the markets today Volatility in the trade Not a lot of open interest on the corn Did we have a WASDE over reaction? Weaker dollar Wheat production & yield numbers Hogs still rally Seasonal rally in the cutouts How is packer interest for cattle Why did we sell off so hard on Wednesday? Where are we in the cattle cycle?
7-12-23 Dollar collapses WASDE Report Rally in Wall Street Much bigger winter wheat crop Bearish reversal on the August cattle
7-11-23 What are the factors driving the market? How do the corn and soybean crop conditions look? What does the Top Soil and Subsoil conditions look like? What are the most important parts of the WASDE report to be watching tomorrow? What are the expectations of the report? How will the corn yield be determined? *What do you happens to demand?
7-10-23 Nice move up on beans It is a quiet market Outside markets have more movement WASDE out on Wednesday End of day it will come down to weather-crop looks good GFS looks wet Cattle higher
7-8-23 Upcoming WASDE What kind of adjustments will have to be made Will there be resurveys on the beans? Mexico buying corn Rains Crop ratings come Monday will be interesting Hogs are trying to make a top Cattle & feeders are waiting on a top
7-6-23 Through the first half of summer Where do we sit post USDA reports Wheat turns lower after a Wednesday bounce
7-5-23 Wheat was a big mover Why almost limit up? Disappointing day for corn-can’t hold gains Hogs might have broke out of a head a shoulder bottom Has the rally in the beans kept the basis more steady?
7-3-23 Follow through buying on the cattle Bear spreading in the cattle Aggressive hog market Commercial sell pressure Corn could not hold on to gains Will crop ratings start weighing in? Follow through on beans Holiday trade week-how quiet will it be?
6-30-23 New highs in feeder cattle Is there volatility working in? Puts in the move higher Video sales coming up A lot of activity in both directions-but end of fiscal quarter How will the open interest look like come Monday No markets on Tuesday USDA stocks & acreage report Dryland & corn
6-29-23 Why are the corn and soybean markets down so hard when the crop conditions were lower this week? How do the moisture conditions compare to past years? What are the corn conditions like compared to other years? How have the corn yields done in comparable years? What are the conditions like in IL? What is the market expecting for corn acres tomorrow?
6-28-23 Grains betting on rain Wettest models have looked for a summertime in awhile Winter wheat yields Russian surface is quiet but underneath not so much
6-27-23 Not all in with this being a weather market sell off Grain stocks report Is the dollar holding off a low? Hogs & pigs report on Thursday Cattle turnaround
6-26-23 Slow trade day to start the week off Position squaring ahead of big report on Friday GFS Models-rain Dry land worries/crop conditions Russia/Ukraine Drop in cattle
6-23-23 - RAIN CHANCES VS. PERFORMANCE - SUPPLY VS. DEMAND - TRADE VALUES VS. YIELDS - ETHANOL AND DOMESTIC USE - FEEDER CATTLE TOPPING? - HOGS TRYING TO REBOUND
6-21-23 Arlan Suderman of Stone X joins the Fontanelle Final Bell midweek to look at an aggressively higher grain market. With the weather bulls in charge Suderman looks at the demand side of the market to see if the bears are waiting to fight back.
6-20-23 Three-day weekend post trade Cattle trade struggles Follow through on the feeder cattle Feeders worried about drought? Consumer push back on proteins yet? Beans on the struggle bus but they wait for August rains Corn futures mixed Weekly crop progress-any surprises?
6-16-23 Weather models Not a lot of demand Did we push ourselves out of the market? What would happen if it rains? What should be done if not a lot is sold? Does grain prices make livestock nervous? *Cattle rallied
6-15-23 Live cattle turned itself around Packer leverage Slower cash trade Hogs continue to push for green Rain-waiting on it Biofuels mandate pushed to June 21
6-14-23 Fed Meeting Mixed grain markets Weather concerns-bring deterioration in crop ratings Relations with China Grain initiative Feeders hit hard
6-13-23 How would you describe the corn and soybean market? How do the current new crop corn and soybean prices compare to what has been available for prices this year? What factors are you watching in the corn and soybean markets? * How should the weekly crop condition ratings be used? What does the top and sub soil moisture look like? *How far into the weather market are we currently?
6-12-23 Rain totals Midwest view Bean exports were off a bit Any Brazil frost concerns? FED meeting Ukraine & Poland grain subsidies concerns Can we push for higher cash cattle? Hog market has some likings
6-9-23
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WASDE reaction
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Soybean Rumors
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South American Production Changes
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Cattle key reversal respected
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What to focus on in the rest of June
6-8-23 Cattle move-is there a short-term downtrend? Pull back from packers? Early cash sales nice to see Hogs lower once again WASDE out tomorrow Weather model Softer export sales for corn & beans Higher hay prices
6-7-23 Arlan Suderman of Stone X joins the Fontanelle Final Bell midweek. The grain market continues under pressure with seasonal selling pressure. Wheat holds downside pressure with global supply still at a price point below US prices. Row crops are still at the mercy of the weather, but will keep a close eye on the data from USDA on Friday. For the macro market China's economy is still struggling. The cattle market is high and may have the dynamics to stay higher.
6-6-23 Weather top of list Historic drop for some of the bigger states NASS weekly update Crop report Friday Dam bombing in Ukraine Flash sale of beans Changing grains & livestock feed buying Another chance for higher cash cattle this week Hogs turned higher
6-2-23Markets finally trading weatherWill corn market be watching close?How could this weather affect the ethanol trade?EPA decision-with bio fuelsDairy updateCash cattle market-blow off top?
6-1-23Positive trade for the grains todayTime of year with weather & marketing Summer driving season is hereCattle continue to soar
5-31-23Grains lower again today Its not just the corn market dropping its grain & energyMarkets will not react to dryness with any rain talkWeather change is happeningEarly harvest results in Brazil-goodArgentina & phytosanitary agreement with China
5-30-23Hogs the shining lightCattle strongWheat gets clobberedDemand is bad6am weather mapsEastern NE, IA & IL going to be dryHuge crops coming out of BrazilReward the rallies
5-26-23Russia & wheat Rain & the plainsImporting wheat Blending wheatWeather market in cornEl Nino when will it start?Funds are short cornWhat is the beans participation this week?Hogs have real problems with Prop12Strong cash this weekBearish cattle
5-25-23Markets start higher but don’t end that wayDry US soilsDebt ceilingArgentina/Brazil harvestCash is king for cattle
5-24-23Are we headed into a big drought?Started picking first crop in BrazilWheat market continues to breakBlack Sea corridor
5-23-23What are the current drivers of the corn and soybean markets?Is the grain corridor working okay?How is planting going across ND?Do you think we will see much prevent plant in ND?Is the market concerned about the dryer weather conditions?How do soil moisture conditions look overall?
5-22-23Weather vs. wheat importsPlanting progressExport numbersCrop progress in BrazilWeather & cattleHog struggleCOF numbers from Friday
5-19-23Tough week for the marketsPerfect storm going right now-lower exportsGrain corridor with Ukraine/RussiaBrazil crop looks goodDrought concerns for the U.S.Planting progress ahead of scheduleRain in wheat countryDollar is higher-not helping eitherNorthern cattle $2 higher board at a discount to the cashHogs still having all their issues
5-17-23§ Wheat tour§ Liquidation of the trade§ Will we get a rally§ Described as pain§ Ukraine grain initiative§ Debt ceiling talks
5-16-23 - Turnaround Tuesday hits hard - Impact on basis - Ukrainian corridor update - Progress in Brazil/Argentina - US Planting progress and prevent plant - Wheat Quality tour keys
5-15-23 - STRONG GRAINS OUT OF THE WEEKEND - GRAIN TECHNICALS MAY BE CHANGING - STRONG CATTLE FUTURES TO START THE WEEK - THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK'S CASH CATTLE TRADE
5-12-23WASDE ReportBrazil cropStrength of the U.S. dollarGood start to the planting seasonWill the crop be as big as thought?Winter wheat strugglesRAINCattle & hog tradesMilk prices heading lower?
5-11-23Crop report out on FridayTalking weatherFlash sales of beansDemand is not the bestBasis for grainsLower cash sales for cattleConsumer demand with Fed talks etc.Cheaper corn & feeder cattle
5-10-23InflationRegional bank issuesFed responses-what is nextDebt ceilingGrowing conditions in BrazilBlack Sea regionChinaU.S. crops
5-9-23What is driving the weakness in the Corn and Soybean markets today?What is it going to take to get a bounce in the markets?How is planting progress going?What are you expecting in the crop report on Friday?With good weather where do you think we are trading at harvest?Do you sell here or do you wait?
5-8-23 Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics, joins the Fontanelle Final Bell for Monday. The grain market is off to a mixed start with KC and Minneapolis wheat ending in the green. Corn, Soybeans and Chicago wheat end in the red. The market is showing some early positioning for the WASDE report on Friday. Intra-commodity spreading also highlighted that old crop supply concerns far outweigh new crop demand. Meanwhile Tyson quarterly financials may highlight consumer concerns at the meat counter.
5-5-23 - Key reversals help wheat, soybeans - impact of Black Sea agreement and weather - planting gets going in northern plains - corn building foundation, starting to step up - fund positions - cattle and the economy - preview next week's trade
5-4-23Headline Hangover from Wednesday - Volatile wheat finishes strong - Beans, Corn much quieter - Energies, outside market influence - Cattle take a pause - Too many moving parts in Hogs
5-3-23 Alan Brugler-Brugler Marketing & Management joins the Fontanelle Final Bell midweek. The Fed raised interest rates once again, but softened their language about futures monetary policy tightening. The latest Fed news may also encourage more managed money to depart from the commodity sector back into equities and cash investments. Brazils expected strong corn crop and possibly improving weather in the US are not friendly to grain bulls.
5-2-23Feds event of tomorrow weighing in on the tradeSet back in cattle worrisomeCash cattle movementTech correction for cattleDryness in the sandhills-out of grassFeedstuff worrisomePlant in the dust…the bins will bust
5-1-23Beans have been on a heck of a slideWetter warmer weatherMinutiae of the markets Has had a downward moveIs the cattle complex struggling?Hogs mixed on the feels
4-28-23Beans turned around on a FridayGrain markets have been toughCorn could be an interesting marketChina cancelations while Brazil starts to turn dryerRain in the Midwest El Nino Hogs took on some new highsCattle struggled
4-27-23China pulls more ordersFirst notice day is FridayWaiting on the rainEnergy marketsEthanol margins have some support-Waiting for the cash to tradePork sees some exports
4-26-23Rains in the SW plains-best since JulyStrong crush Black SeaBrazil crops & how they are lookingMarket is focusing on new crop corn & bean fundamentals More banking issues Cold storage reportFeedlots have extra corn?
4-25-23May July SpreadA lot of why the markets not really movingSpread in generalWeather Grain corridor with RussiaA lot of things that could go wrongCrude oil dropLivestock drop
4-24-23Corn lower while wheat is mixedChinese corn cancelation Are there bean worries of cancelations as well?Beans ugly across the boardWhat is confusing about the wheat contractFreeze damages for wheat?Switching weather patternChoppy dollarCattle held up well after COF reportTyson plant fire in Madison, NE
4/21/23Markets just are not strongCorn ethanol margins may see a boostBeans new crop scored some new lowsGlobal dryness for wheat
4-20-23- COMMODITIES IN GENERAL IN THE MOOD TO SELL - WEATHER PREDICTION CHANGES - TECHNICALS vs. SEASONALS - KEYS THAT COULD CHANGE MARKET'S FOCUS - PREVIEW TOMORROW'S CATTLE ON FEED REPORT
4-19-23Broad weakness in commodities, financials, energies today - Grains take a risk-off stance - Ukraine/Russia and Russia/China impacts - Hogs find a way to bounce, cattle might be spooked short-term
4-18-23- feeling of today's market overall - corn progress and usage - soybean products move opposite today - wheat reacts to headlines - cattle continue to impress - hogs looking for a Memorial Day push
4-17-23The ag commodity complex ended in the green. Martin shares her thoughts on why the wheat saw a robust midday rally. As one might think it is linked to both the uncertainty of the Black Sea trade deal between Russia and Ukraine. Along with drought in the US winter wheat belt. Martin also highlights how South American Production is looking and why it isn't the full story with North American production under question with the Northern plains cold and wet to start planting season.
4-14-23Cattle market has had an interesting trading weekIs cattle seeing a reversal?Strong fundamentalsTighter numbers going forwardConsumers-should they be worried about beef pricesCorn & wheat futures higher on a FridayIs China wanting more corn?Could see lower new crop going forward
4-13-23Gold Markets on fireDollar downInflation or change ratesWe want markets to trade fundamentals-not so much todayStill friendly cornWheat continues to look sick*Drought monitor-but markets don't care
4-12-23Core inflation on the sticky sideOld crop/new crop spreadsWeakness in the new crop corn & beansHow is wheat looking?How is spring weather looking?Producer leverage on the cattle
4-11-23WASDE ReportNot a lot of excitementFocus on weatherFocus on early plantingBrazil basis continues to fallChicago wheat & attentionSpring wheat worries but snow melt happening before plantingDid WASDE help cattle?
4-10-23Short-term looking for good plantingWASDE out tomorrowExcitement about China buying cornOld crop for ethanol or reducing size of crop from the fallBeans expecting lower stocksImporting beans into the east coastCrush market sharesWheat conditions sell rallies
4-6-23Pre-Easter tradeHow are we sitting for the year?Precious metals on the tradeCattle pushes positive numbersHogs are they turning around?
4-5-23Weather situationWeek of jobs reportHouse speaker met with Taiwan StoneX Brazil production survey on corn & beans
4-4-23Weather concernsFirst crop progressOutside market pressureCan we hold these levelsStill talking last week’s reportsWheat concerns170 asking cash pricesFeed worries for livestock
4-3-23Cattle see some selling after last week6-7 days higher on cattle-brought set back todayWhat will cash be this week?Demand structure still good for cattleMore snowHogs see some safety after H&P reportGrains had some bull spreadWeather once againFirst week for the NASS weekly reportsSelling the new crop-
3-31-23USDA report dayOld crop cornMillion acres of wheat foundChina still buying grain How is the basis lookingLivestock react to weather conditions
3-30-23Big reports tomorrowQuarterly grain stocksAcreage reportSpring planting underway in the south but delays to the northAcre wars could be startingBanking crisis-is there more issues headed our wayGeo-politicalLower dollarWaiting on the cash cattle Higher feed costsDairy industry update
3-29-23Black Sea/Russia putting a limit onNervous trade going forwardChina’s corn buying again todayChina buying spreeExpectations for planting intentionsWeather chatter concerns for both grain
3-28-23Nice turn in the beansOutside market influence continues-what was the set up?Busy end of week reportsCrop conditionsPrevent plant talk out thereCattle saw mixed market with outside influence
3/27/23Good start to the week on the cattleFeeders & live came out of nowhere todayCould see some mixed cattle on TuesdayHow will cash move?Hogs looked better on the chartsBank issue continuesPlanting intentions report due out on FridayExport Sales Report on ThursdayH&P on ThursdayJobs Report on Thursday
3-24-23One of the first positive days in weeks for grainsSome random movement brought the greenCorn & wheat moving togetherSoybean meal negativity was pulling everyone down early weekRussia talks of buying surplus wheatNo longer Chicken Little sky falling feelChina buying Who has the old crop to sell?
3-23-23Higher wheat markets at all three exchangesCorn & beans struggle once againFrom a fundamental standpoint-corn is bullishChina still buyingDo elevators own any corn?Funds bailing on the hogsInflation talksSome meat demand concerns
3-22-23Breaking the dollar with Fed decisionNot a lot of weight on the grain markets with decisionCrude oil stayed firmWhat is the current market environmentHow did corn go against the tide?Dollar weakerLower Argentina estimatesChina & Russia talksWere livestock nervous ahead of feds?
3-21-23 Tuesday the market is volatile with commodity market catching it's fair share of volatility. The biggest concern of the market is what will the Federal Reserve say on Wednesday when it likely raises interest rates again. Darren Fessler with Lake Front Futures and options shares his thoughts on what the Fed. Along with why fundamentals like North American weather may soon start playing a factor into the grain trade.
3-20-23Another drop in the tradeSaw some bouncing back off the lowsCrude has turned aroundMarketing into ‘23Planting intensions reportCattle reacting to the COF report?
3-17-23Soybean & meals finally rolled overFunds have no length in corn & short in wheatCOT reportFeds/Banking won’t fix the marketFed meetings next weekEarly planting intention numbers are starting to be releasedChina hungry for U.S. cornStruggle this week in the cattle market-its toppyCattle look weak & are moving lowerHogs have gotten smacked this weekASF & China
3-16-23•Big macro risk off with the banks•How many more will go under•China back 3rd time buying grain•Will Brazil export pace on beans pick up•Lack of news for wheat?•Are we short supplied on cattle?
3-15-23•Economy and bank failures•Can’t ignore the issue•Closely watching Wall Street•Fed Reserve meeting next week•How does this all effect the farmer bottom line?•AFS resurging in China?•Production estimates fall in Argentina•China buying corn
3-14-23•Uncertainty in the trade•Monday gut check flows into Tuesday•Is the bull run over?•Trading the money flow•Waiting on the cash•World of banking-causing any nervousness?•Hogs dropping once again•Cash for the hogs-is a better market coming?•Stock action•Spread action higher on the corn•We don’t make any more old crop
3-13-23- initial weakness in grains - low volume Monday - changes in weather forecasts - bank failures and Black Sea corridors - livestock charts edging a downtrend - cattle on feed perspective for Friday
3-10-22•Wheat came off the lows•Corn higher•Commodity Classic•’13 corn compared to ‘23•Changing balance sheet•Trade a bullish story•How low could corn go?•Hogs saw some buying-is there a low coming?•Boxed beef backing off a bit
3-9-23•Ugly wheat trade•What is a reasonable time frame for a low in corn & beans?•Weather pattern changes…now what?•Russia/Ukraine grain deal•Feeders not reacting to down day in corn
3-8-23Market conversation after the WASDE report. Payne highlights how the cattle and hog crush were impacted by the grain movement following the WASDE report. Payne also takes a dive into where interest rates are headed and what that means for all segments of the ag supply chain.
3-7-23•Federal Reserve Testimony •Lower grains•Soybean market down double digits•Sharply higher dollar tied back to the feds•To many challenges to funds holding large positions•Brazil & Argentina expectations•LaNina is dead what does that latest models show?•Could it be 2019 all over again with snowpack in the Dakotas?•China adds pressure to the U.S.
3-6-23Corn stumblesBean strength on mealWheat has been on a rollercoaster slideCattle strength - protection options abound*Preview for the rest of the month, WASDE and Plantings report
3-3-23How do the corn and soybean markets compare to week ago?How did the USDA Outlook numbers released last week look to you?What does the Brazilian corn and soybean crops look like?How are the Argentine corn and soybean crops doing?Do you think we have found a bottom in the corn and soybean markets?What would it take for May corn to get back to 6.80 and may soybeans to get back to 15.40.
3-2-23•Soybeans rally back from the Tuesday down day•Corn tried to rally but gave up•Market is caught between the 616 & resistance at 640•Wheat dead cat bounce?•Nothing really exciting in the market•Argentine crop getting smaller•Reminder-Brazil is a huge country-easy to forget•Planting delays due to wet•Cattle patient waiting on cash
3-1-23•Grain sell off•EPA & E15•Brazil beans are great but really wet•Late second crop corn•US exports slowing down•Wheat warm up•Feeder cattle see a rally
2-28-23•Another down day in the grain markets•Acre switch•Is wheat pulling corn down?•Cattle take advantage of lower corn
2-27-23•Timing with rain is the most critical thing•Some talk of China and canceling beans out of Argentina•Will we see a grain bottom•Crop insurance prices•Quiet export inspections•Wheat still struggles lower•Feeder cattle take advantage of lower corn•COF Report•Cattle saw a mixed market•Hogs back lower again
2-24-23•Consumption & equities for cattle•How patient can we be waiting on cash?•Huge drop in wheat•China/Russia deal•2023 lows •Anniversary of Russia/Ukraine war
2-23-23•Cattle complex goes higher•Markets turning friendly•Tech areas on corn•BSE/Brazil•Keep the top side open on the cattle?•Higher hogs
2-22-23Technical fall-out on grains - FOMC minutes - hawkish tones continue - Beans strong, wheat weak, corn yawns.... - Political tensions - Russia/Ukraine anniversary and China's essay onthe US
2-21-22How do the markets feel to you today?What is the main driver of the strength in Soybeans today?How is soybean demand looking?What does the corn demand look like?How are the corn and soybean crops progressing in South America?Do you think this is an area to be making new crop sales?
2-17-23•Increase talk of new crop beans•When will we see export pace pick up for Brazil?•Complacency for ’23 crop•Increase in input costs from labor, seed for example•Strong spreads•Are we going to stay on pace for exports from the U.S.?•Cattle usually top during February•Highest price for cattle in 8 years•Hogs should be going higher-can’t seem to move
2-16-23•Very quiet trade•Some light spreading•Some interest picking up in new crop beans•Old crop vs. new crop beans•Are we starting the corn vs. beans argument early?•Bean oil market starting to pick up interest as well•Worries of ethanol plants going dark•Renewable diesel-CA plant•Corn & bean option volatility
2-15-23 -Macro's risk off day today - Mexico Corn - Beans & meal vs. oil - Russia, Ukraine, Brazil, Argentina - Quite cattle and hog markets
2-14-23•Weather moving through the Midwest•Lower grains•Mexico and GMO corn•Wheat/cotton price•Cattle needs to be watched closer-cash price•Middle of February and fat cattle-seasonality•Are you less bullish on the cattle?
2-13-23•Nice rally in the wheat continues•Corn sees some major chart resistance •Is $7 coming our way for corn?•What’s going on in the soybean meal?•Beans are overbought•Algorithms traders•Harvest and planting progress in SA•Hogs up $3•Cattle move higher as well
2-9-23•Yesterday report leaves a drift•Meal market feeling a squeeze on the board•China movement to Brazil beans•Drop in the KC Wheat market•Lack of corn demand•Argentine crops low but not enough to trade shock•Water levels in the Midwest•Uptick in boxed beef•Hogs have another struggle day
2-8-23•USDA Report•On going risk with the rail•China demand•Argentina & Brazil•FED & its impact on the macro picture
2-7-23Anything you are hoping to hear in the state of the union address tonight?What is the market expecting from the WASDE report on Wednesday?Is corn and soybean demand holding up okay?What does harvest progress look like in South America?How is the Safrinha corn planting going?What is South American corn and soybean demand looking like?
2-6-23•New contract highs on cattle •Will we run out of gas anytime soon?•Feeders pushing hard even with higher corn•Higher cash at the end of last week•Boxed beef was higher again today•Hogs struggle on the later months•Friendly tone going into the USDA report•Goldman Role underway•Crop development being watched with drier weather
2-3-23Chinese balloonIf things get worse with ChinaSoybean meal new highs Brazil's crop is coming on*Cattle market
2-2-23Clay Patton filled in for today's show. A strong day in the cattle markets. Kooima looks at what has happened this week to push the market higher. Friday will still be a battle ground as the low from Wednesday could tempt bears to sell the market. Once again this week the cash market is sluggish to near non existent.
2-1-23Today's show is hosted by Clay Patton. Don Roose discusses grains and livestock after the Fed raises interest rates. Along with a look to South America and other points in the global market.
1-30-23Why were soybeans so strong today?Are the funds still holding a record meal position?How does South American weather look to you?What does harvest progress look like in SA look like?What is the latest on La Nina?How is demand holding up?
1-27-23•Evening up going into the weekend•KC was up once again•Beans didn’t want to follow the bulls•Corn was a roller coaster trade•Argentina weather is the debatable item•Export sales for beans •Brazil doing some undercutting on beans•Corn exports are very quiet•Short crop long tail•Where are we in the cattle cycle•Are heifer numbers coming back?
1-26-23•Hogs turn around•Lack of bids for the cash cattle•Positioning ahead of next Tuesday’s report?•Commitment of trader’s chatter•Ukraine & Black Sea region•Natural gas
1-25-23•Black Sea region heating up•South America keeping pressure on the markets•Their weather looking better as well•Is there worry about the winter wheat crop•Cattle inventory report•Is there tech support for the hogs?
1-24-23•Live cattle were up again today•June/August cattle•Weather pattern changing?•Heifer retention slow to recoup?•All the after first of the year chatter on feeders not what expected•Drop once again in the hogs•Is there some spread action on the corn?•Crop development in being watched in Argentina
1-23-23•Momentum of the trade only focusing on weather•Unknown in beans? Who is it?•Black Sea region •Locking in feed needs
1-20-23•Markets are very high priced for corn & beans•Wheat looks cheep compared to what they were•Lost yield in Argentina but good in Brazil•Rain truly is making grain for South America•Corn planting in SA•How does the basis look?•Head lower in May/June•Weather & the livestock•Bearish on the cattle-seasonal top
1-19-23Were you surprised by any of the adjustments in the WASDE report last week?How is South American weather looking?What does Brazilian soybean harvest look like?Has there been any major changes with the grain corridor?What are the major factors to watch going forward?Do you think the corn and soybean markets will continue to work higher from here?
Sue Martin with Ag and Investment joins the Fontanelle Final Bell on a day with grains in the green. Demand was boosted to start the shortened trading week with flash sales and solid export inspections. Despite poor 2022 data Martin is optimistic about the growth of Chinese demand in the future.
1-13-22Lingering influence of USDA reports - Support for Corn - Soybeans vs. Meal and Oil - Wheat quite, but bullish - Transition of weather focus - South to North - Cattle and hogs mixed - disappointing cash cattle trade - No Markets Monday
1-12-23•WASDE report•Inflation report CPI•Negative livestock numbers•Feeders held up surprisingly
1-11-23•Pre-report market action•Will there be any surprises?•CPI numbers out as well •Argentina•Winter wheat seedings•Rail strikes
1-10-23•Cattle weights are on the forefront•But remember will very depending on location & weather•Goldman roll underway•Higher grains taking is it toll on livestock?•Cash cattle markets seeing some passing on offers•Hogs been in the pits with the double edge storm•Cold storage backup?•USDA report on Thursday
1-9-23•Pre-report market expectations•Soy complex as a whole making a “summer” high•Soymeal movement•Wheat concerns compares to 2008•Feed stuff perspective on the grains
1-6-23•Soybeans turned around•USDA report next Thursday •Corn & Wheat markets•Cattle market deals with weights & weather
1-5-23•Holiday week ahead of a full week next week•Rough week overall•But cattle on Wednesday did well, but feeders did give some back•Live cattle dealing with indecision •Some early cash movement•A lot of feed to get to the first of June •Boxed moved lower•Struggle in grains-but remember what the past two weeks have been like•Chasing the bean meal
1-4-23•Grains struggled•What happened year end into new year•Jan 12 report•Weather in Argentina & harvest underway•Cattle markets rally
1-3-23•This is not how were to start the new year out•Taking back some rally of ‘22•Lower energy market •Crude dumped $3•Argentina still dry•First quarter of ’23 for grains & livestock•Higher boxed beef•Livestock struggles on the first trading day of new year
12-30-22•What a year 2022 was for grains & livestock•Many have wanted to hedge on this week’s rally•Chinese aggression with Taiwan•January report•Beef movement •February ’22 into today on this cattle market•Hog thoughts into ‘23
12-29-22•South American weather•Energy data out today•Waiting on the cash•Daily slaughter numbers big on hogs light on cattle•Highlight/lowlight of ‘22
12-28-22•Impressive performance of grain & oilseeds•End of year is here•Grain money flow•Don’t argue with the charts•Harvest has started in South America•China & COVID•Did the markets take notice on weather & KC wheat?
12-27-22Why did soybeans trade so strong earlier in the morning and then weakened as the day progressed?How did the corn market look to you today?What does South American weather look like?Is harvest moving along in Brazil?What are the main factors to be watching for the corn and soybean markets?What do you think the corn and soybean markets do going forward?*Is there an area where additional sales should be made?
12-23-22•Heading into the Christmas holiday break•Cross currents in the markets•Grain markets that are fundamentally dealing with tight supplies•South American crop-Brazil doing great dry in Argentina •Brazil record bean crop•U.S. crush demand•Wheat is seeing a quiet winter-no new supplies for the next 5 months•Winter kill concerns •China & geo political•Tough days for cattle guys
12-22-22•Last full week of ’22 trading•Weather system with the cattle got stuff riled•Still really waiting on the cash•COF & H&P tomorrow•Tech selling•Stock market is it a holiday trade•Sell areas for corn•Artic blast on the wheat
12-21-22•China update•South American weather•Ukraine President visits U.S.•Can they produce & export grain•Winter wheat & cold weather•Winter weather & cattle
12-20-22•Not ready to rollover in soybeans•Meal market is strong oil is rebounding•Weather in South America•Dollar is down due to Japan•Cattle on Feed H&P Report•Let the holiday feel start•Volatility •Midwest weather
12-19-22•Grains trading lower on the day•Outside markets have energies higher•Beans moving lower on Argentina weather•Meal tried to rally early Monday morning •Entire market is just plain tired•How do we look at new crop corn & beans•Macro stuff matters right now•Reminder of global wheat-beyond your field•Winter weather moving in once again to more areas•Some cattle opportunities headed there way
12-16-22How did the market action in the corn market look to you this week?What did the market action in the soybean market look like this week?Is corn and soybean demand doing okay?How concerned are you about corn demand for ethanol in the longer-term?How does South American weather look?What do you think corn and soybean production is doing in South America?*How is corn harvest going in Ukraine?
12-15-22•Soybeans traded lower •South American weather good for Brazil•Crush filling up into February•How is dollar effecting the export market?•Market rallied on the forecast coming in for cattle
12-13-22•CPI data•Stock market aggressive reaction to the CPI•Dollar traded lower mid-session•Inflation has cooled off•Are we moving to a deflation?•Current Argentina weather•Russia vs. Ukraine•We need to see oil for diesel as a long-term trade for fund mgr•Lock in fuel needs for spring
12-12-22•Slaughter level in cattle down a bit last week•Are there tighter numbers ahead for the cattle market•Weather concerns•Boxed Beef Prices•Volatile market•Cash is sluggish •China has some sour prices•Beans took a drop •Weather in South America-watch Argentina•How has soybean meal been trading?•Corn & wheat trading together
12-9-22•WASDE Report-usual uneventful December report•Dry weather in Argentina •Good cop bad cop market trade•Dry U.S. weather•Corn how long can they ignore Brazil’s corn crop•Fed meeting next week•Milk price movement•Is cattle volume low?
12-8-22•Longer term trends are to the downside for corn & wheat•Beans are trying to stay resilient-but the leash is getting tight•Argentina on the supply side for corn•Wheat sees large numbers from Russia & Australia •Overall, how is the world balance sheet?•Is demand going away faster than supply is?•How far is China behind on grain purchases?•USDA report out tomorrow, sell the rumor buy the fact•Cattle are not acting bad•Hogs imploded
12-7-22•Wheat was past due for a correction•Weaker dollar•Wall street fund managers have concerns•Will we see feds increase interest rates•Weather systems bringing concerns for livestock
12-6-22•Cattle market sees some seasonal weakness•Should you have protection in place?•How about year end?•Hogs also traded lower•Two full weeks of trading then its holiday mode•Corn struggled•Beans turned themselves around
12-5-22•Beans couldn’t hold their positive numbers•What is going on in the wheat market?•Dollar finding some strength •Export opportunities•Rail strike averted how did markets react?•Cheaper corn & livestock•Cash cattle potential
12-2-22•Corn •Beans on the week•Wheat market struggles•China •Rail strike•Hogs price range•North waited on cash
12-1-22•Another day to trade the ranges•Weather in South America•4 things that go up and 4 that go down•China & grain trade
11-30-22 • Beans see highest level since September • Corn saw weakness • China • Fed Chair latest speech • Wheat higher-last crop progress of the growing season • South American weather & crop prospects
11-29-22 Market recap
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no follow through from yesterday's buying
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livestock holiday fundamentals
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Covid Lockdowns and logistics
11-28-22 Why did the corn and soybean markets reverse and go higher? What happened to the crude oil market? How are corn and soybean exports doing? What do the technicals on corn and soybean look like? What do you think the corn and soybean markets do going forward? How is basis holding up?
11-25-22 Clay Patton filled in for Susan Littlefield today & talked with Jeff Peterson on a variety of grain topics... 1. How does South American weather looks? 2. Is the market very concerned about the dryness in the United States?
Quick review of today's export sales and shipment reports. 1. What impact is the concern about a rail strike having on the markets? 2. Is the Mississippi River situation getting any better? 3. How concerned with Brazil now be able to ship corn to China?
11-23-22 Chad Moyer is filling in for Susan Littlefield... Slow buying in front of Thanksgiving
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Option expiration impact
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Seasonals from Thanksgiving to Christmas
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South America currency export game
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Cash cattle and the futures
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Set up for a short session on Friday
11-18-22 • Cattle • Strong cash week • Technical week • Weather starting to effect cattle • Hog tested major resistance • Hang over coming out of China • Corn held at the $6.50 report (important #) • End user this is where you should be looking at the corn
11-17-22 • Negativity in the grains • Higher livestock trade • Cattle on Feed on Friday
11-15-22 • Russia missiles to Ukraine & Poland set the tone • G20 meeting underway • Seasonal basis • Will we see a basis top out? • Dec spreads
11-14-22 • Weekly export inspections • Basis • South American weather • Crop progress more focus on winter wheat • Cattle market reflects on grain trade
11-11-22 • Drop in the cattle • Markets responded to the CPI numbers • Cripto deal-is that effecting the trades on a Friday • Had some passing of $155 on cattle • China talking about emending COVID • But they still need the grains can they lead to the US vs. SA?
11-10-22 Any surprises from the WASDE report yesterday? What do you think we will see from changes down the road? What is behind the weakness in the corn and soybean markets? Any updates on the Ukraine Grain corridor? *Is the low water situation improving much on the Mississippi River?
11-9-22 • WASDE report • Ukraine-Black Sea & trade agreement • China getting worse • Taiwan • South American updates
11-8-22 • Distorted disconnected markets • WASDE prep • Why not the correlation between cattle & grains that we are used to? • Are there election jitters? • No news out there • Basis mixed • Crude, stock market & the dollar • Do gold, silver & bonds know something? • South American weather • U.S. Exports • World balance sheet
11-7-22 • Range bound on corn & beans • Cattle went of their highs on the day • Goldman Roll • Cash prices • Seasonal movements on the cattle • USDA WASDE report on Wednesday • Wrapping up harvest • Rain concerns
11-4-22 Diesel prices Bean rally corn struggles basis Exports, the dollar & the Mississippi River Why is cattle struggling?
11-3-22 Corn & soybeans plummet on outside market influence South America, China, Russia, Ukraine all weighing in Supply Demand report Why did livestock not move higher?
11-2-22 Arlan Suderman, Stone X, takes a closer look at Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's comments following the Fed rate hike on Wednesday. Suderman also details where the Black Sea agreement currently stand with Russia changing their tune midweek. Finally Suderman details why China may be changing tactics in regards to China.
Bryan Doherty, Total Farm Marketing, joins the Fontanelle Final Bell on the first day of November as the markets are mixed to higher. Grains are keeping one eye on what's happening in the Black sea. While also trying to plan ahead for how the supply sheet will change with a fast paced US harvest. Brazil is also part of the conversation once again with a new President and solid soybean planting. Over all the individual market headlines is the Fed and there likely interest rate hike on Wednesday.
10-31-22 Chad Moyer hosting today
Russia and the Export Corridor
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Ukrainian farmers access to currency and inputs
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Brazil elections
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Truckers strike in South America
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Push/Pull on the U.S. Dollar
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Live Cattle - October goes off the board with a $6 premium to Dec.
10-28-22 • Market wanted to move in the soybeans • Chinese economy • Mississippi river • First 20 days in November
10-27-22 Why are the corn and soybean basis levels so strong? Do you think the basis levels continue to improve? How is ethanol demand doing? What did the weekly export sales look like? Rumors of a record low wheat rating Monday, will the jump the market or is it known? How is the Mississippi River situation doing? *What will it take to move the corn and soybeans markets higher from higher?
10-26-22 • Low water on the Mississippi • Good soaking rains in OK/KS/MO • Winter wheat belt • Economy and money flow into the markets • Zimbabwe’s focus on wheat • 20th Congress of China & what is next for Ag • Argentina & Brazil weather
10-25-22 • Hesitant tones in the livestock sector • Higher cash being asked for • Boxed beef also takes a jump • Not enough cattle to go around • Feedstuff concerns down into the south • Bullish thoughts on the hogs • Dollar & the grains
10-24-22 • Went into the midday with lower numbers • Just not a lot of news out there • Weak basis • South American crops • Can livestock take advantage of lower grains? • Higher livestock on a Monday
10-21-22 • Cattle have had a run this week • Hogs have had an uptick as well • A yo yo type of livestock trade • Dollar drops • Reversal in the stocks • Elections looming • Export opportunities • Short term change headed our way
10-20-22 • How long have we been waiting for futures to react? • Cash driven market but shouldn’t be the opposite? • Cattle on Feed report out tomorrow • Welcome rally in the hogs • Export data is helpful for hogs • Production coming is down the road • Should we be worried about Feb/April • Higher grains • Corn has found its range
10-19-22 Why are the markets so choppy? What are the most important factors the market is now focusing on.? What impact is Ukraine having on the markets? Is South American weather much of a concern? What does corn demand for ethanol look like? How concerned should we be about the low water levels on the Mississippi?
10-18-22
• Beans take a drop • Not a lot of news moving about right now • Russia Ukraine adds to the wheat • Outside market influence on the grains • Dry weather in the Kansas winter wheat growing areas • Cattle market came back strong on a Tuesday • COF report due out on Friday
10-17-22 A lot of short covering this week
· Drought in the central plains
· Cattle on Feed on Friday
· Weekly export numbers
· Regional basis starting to improve
· Competing with Brazil
10-14-22 How would you describe the market action this last week? What adjustments do you think there will be in future WASDE reports? Would you say the market is more focused on Supply or demand at this point? What does corn exports look like? Are you concerned about corn ethanol demand? What does the soybean demand look like to you? *What do we need to see for news to keep the corn and soybean markets going higher?
10-12-22 • WASDE Report • Ongoing headline risks with Ukraine • South American weather update • Chine & their economy • River barge rates • Firmer cash on the cattle-pressure for higher numbers
10-11-22 • Outlook for Wednesday report • Harvest pressure continues • World pressure • Cattle take advantage of corn drop
10-10-22 • Volatility continues • Was escalation • Dryer forecast still an issue for winter wheat • Harvest theme with variable results • WASDE report on Wednesday • Mississippi River barge issues • Lower cattle trade • No surprise for feeders with higher corn
10-7-22 Volatility is the key word on this weeks trading Dollar trade Wheat complex flopping all over on Russia & weather news Movement in the dairy trade
10-6-22 • Poor export sales • Ukraine & South America undercutting our prices? • China buying beans from Argentina & Brazil • Mississippi River struggles continue • Feeders saw a disappointing day
10-5-22 • Drop in the beans today • South American weather • Basis • Barge traffic on the Mississippi • Weekly export numbers • Dryness in the plains
10-4-22 • Macro move higher in the trade today • Wheat negative plays • Dead cat bounce • Unemployment numbers on Friday • Will FEDS weaken? • Global pressure to soften • Dollar weaking • Hogs & cattle can they go any lower?
10-3-22 • Grains were higher minus Chicago wheat • Some follow through after last week’s report • Outlook for the week • Harvest pressure • Harvest basis pressure
9-30-22 • Any surprises in the Quarterly stocks report today?
• What do the corn and soybean stock numbers mean for adjustment to last year’s yields?
• Do you think corn and soybean yields will go higher or lower in future crop reports?
• Is it time to roll your future hedges or HTA contracts?
• What should be done with unsold corn and soybeans that have to go to town?
• Should unsold bushels stored on the farm or taken to town?
• What do you think will happen to corn and soybean basis levels?
9-29-22 • NASS Quarterly Stocks • Massive spreads on corn & beans • Wheat goes opposite of Wednesday • Russia wheat purchase • Russia annex • Headline risk weekend headed our way • Basis watching across the scale
9-28-22 • Hurricane path & ag • Ukraine • Barge freight • Brazil growing • Political strain in China
9-27-22 • Livestock topping out on the charts • Recession fears • Top on Hogs? • Supply issues • Corn, Beans & Wheat chop back & forth • Stock reports/WASDE • Russia/Ukraine • Macro head winds • Not a lot of rallies in the stock market • Argentina is dry
9-23-22 Sell-off before the weekend Stock market and USD influence Corn technical signals Cattle slide into October *Hogs a plenty
9-22-22 Fed Interest rate hangover Aftermath of Fed announcement for wheat Drought monitor and weather on wheat Corn and soybean harvest - early yields Feeder cattle signals Hogs - tough to determine a direction right now
9-21-22 Fed raises interest rates as anticipated, but longer term might be a change in focus Escalation of tension between Russia and Ukraine Yield projections coming down Brazil and Argentina yield estimates and weather
9-20-22 Wheat strength on the Black Sea headlines Corn and soybeans technically supported Game of Headlines this time of year Feeders fear the cost of gain *Crude, interest rates, and other macros
9-19-22 Rebound in soybean futures Corn futures ho-hum day Wheat feeling pulled in several directions Overall commodity markets seem supported *Cattle and hog futures start the week strong
9-16-22 What are the corn and soybean markets the most focused on at this time? Crops in the Midwest What do you think happen to corn and soybean production amounts down the road? How does South American look? Are you still concerned about a Rail Strike down the road? Are u concerned about ethanol demand down the road? Do you think corn and soybean export demand will hold up down the road? What is your opinion on corn and soybean basis levels?
9-15-22 • Volatility is the word this week • Rail strike • Monday report still weighing in • Crude oil dropping • Specs in the markets worried about negative business headlines • Corn & bean prices have a more bullish story • Harvest pressure • South American planting numbers
9-14-22 • Railroad negotiations • Harvest pressure starting to build • China, Argentina • Marketing in the volatile world • Recent dollar highs
9-13-22 • Soft exports • Battle of the headlines • Inflation • Dollar and Dow • Most expensive grain in the world is in the U.S. • Rail strike pressure
9-12-22 • WASDE Report • Early harvest pressure • Price action-where do we go from here
9-9-22 • Major dollar reversal • Green across the screen • Winter wheat planting • Harvest pressure • Russia making waves once again with Ukraine • Watching entire weather picture • Weakness in the boxed beef
9-8-22 Mixed signals in the cattle market Consumer demand for beef How does feed stuff shortening the cattle market? Weather fears? Preview of September report
9-7-22 • Recession • Broad brushed selling • Crude struggles • Argentina’s “fire sale” • Wheat is the exception • Trade agreement between Ukraine & Russia • South American planting season • Slow planting progress for winter wheat
9-6-22 • Typical post-holiday trade • Bean numbers are not worried about an early frost • Will farmers bin it vs. selling it? • Export business picking up for wheat • Hay shortage & our livestock • China has more lockdowns • Higher cattle & hogs
9-5-22 Labor Day Special Report • Bearish for long term livestock • US Dollar & profit taking • Concerns with propane/heating oil going into fall? • Harvest pressure with yield numbers • Jobs report • 3 day weekend going to effect Tuesday trade • WASDE report
9-2-22 • Thin trade • A lot of producers questioning what the yield will be • Back & forth week • Managing risk in the trade • What does the next couple of weeks hold? • Early harvest will that effect basis? • Global macro issues • Higher boxed beef on a Friday
9-1-22 • Volcano & weather effects • Another down day in the markets • Dollar is to blame for it • Long liquidation across the board • Struggles with export data • Sales to unknown in beans • Dairy issues
8-31-22 • Beans & wheat turn themselves around • End of month position squaring • Nuclear plant in Southern Ukraine • Recession fears • Grains have been trading fundamentals • Ukraine update • China update with drought, COVID & economy • South American planting season
8-30-22 • Soybeans were spreading yesterday • Beans & corn have the potential to move higher • Ukraine pulling at our markets • Bean sales announced too “Unknown” • Winter wheat plantings • Rally in the cattle market
8-29-22 • Soybeans drop on a Monday • How much influence is the Pro Farmer Tour still playing? • S.A. planting prep pressure? • Wheat exploding & finding a price rally • Any early harvest pressures • Watching export numbers? • Technical sell signal for cattle coming up
8-26-22 • Pro farmer tour numbers bullish • Macro picture • Uptrend coming for the dollar • Outside global issues • Sept crop report will we see changes? • Chinese demand • Stock market • Strong basis • Hold corn sell beans? • Some exporting on hogs • Softness on cutouts for hogs • Weights a bit more then a year ago on cattle • Softer cattle market
8-25-22 What do you think is behind the strength in the markets this week for corn and soybeans? How does Pro Farmer determine their yields for corn? What soybean information does Pro Farmer provide? Are there some trends you are seeing from the Pro Farmer numbers? What is the best way to use the Pro Farmer yield information? When will the final numbers be released from Pro Farmer? How much can the corn and soybean markets be affected by the weather? Is there anything else you are watching in the markets.
8-24-22 Crop Tour General price action Basis pricing Harvest pressure China grain purchases
8-23-22 Movement in grains, led today by Soybeans Pro Farmer Crop tour attention Weather for finishing crops Livestock - reaction to Cattle on Feed Impact to Marketing plan Keys for trade the rest of this week
8-19-22
• Weather continues to be an issue • How do we finish up the crop-not a weather market • Pro Farmer tour next week • Stock market, macro indicators • Outside market factors • Harvest just around the corner • Black Sea region update • Natural gas prices • Dry down concerns with fuel prices
8-18-22 • Wheat has been catching some selling • Corn & beans-weather issues • China having weather issues • South American planting plans? • Current export trades • Basis going into fall • Cattle see a Thursday cash trade • Drop in the hog trade
8-17-22 • Severe drought in parts of China • Should we be watching the EU weather • Ukraine update • U.S. weather pattern from an agronomist • South American weather with La Nina • Decline in corn & milo production over last year
8-16-22 • Dry weather effecting the crops • Early harvest? • Drop in beans • China weak economic indicators • Paper positions with grains • Turn around in the cattle • Are hog supplies thin?
8-15-22 • Outside market influences on the trade for grains • Lower market trade • Your backyard is not the market • Manage what you can in this trade • Livestock had a down day as well • Cattle has had a good run
8-12-22 How did the crop report look for corn and soybeans? How was the yield determined on corn and soybeans? Are there any particular state yields that surprised you? What do you think yields will do going forward? * How did the world numbers look to you? * What do you think we will see for world adjustments going forward?
8-11-22 • Weather heating up-brings crop concerns • Need to check more than from roads • Cattle on the cash side finally coming to work • Can cash hold or will it move higher • Spike in commodities after midterm elections • WASDE • Basis
8-10-22 - Inflation data and a week USD impact on grains
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Soybean reversal mid-session
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Strength in wheat
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World Weather
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the weak USD and impact on Livestock futures
8-9-22 • Weather issues • Season of yield guesses • DTN Yield tour estimates • WASDE • Ships leaving Ukraine-corn isn’t good • Crop conditions vary across the Midwest • Some buying on the exports • Basis talk in the country
8-5-22 • Jobs report was positive-but is that a review mirror • Weather issues still brewing • Production potential taking over the markets • Moving to more of an inside trade • Europe weather issues • South American crop already priced in • Chinese demand becoming old news • What’s coming up in the markets for China? • Dairy update
8-4-22 China buying US beans Cheapest beans right now in the world Will basis be strong west of the Missouri River the next 14 months? Size of the crops WCB ECB Weather models Jobs report out on Friday Weekend pressure on the trade for Sunday night into Monday Feedstocks ever change-is Darren friendly?
8-3-22 • Way to warm overnight for corn • Weather pattern & its effects on the crops • StoneX Customer survey yield estimates for August • Grain movement out of Ukraine • Protein sector seeing shift in product demand • China suspended trade with Taiwan
8-2-22 • Taiwan and China • Protentional chart targets • Heating oil charts • South American Post Harvest • Outside market influences • Risk on feeder cattle • Country basis
8-1-22 • China, Taiwan & the U.S. • Ukraine moves grain • Brazil’s record corn crop • Exports? • Weather concerns • Weather & cattle • Higher boxed beef
7-29-22 July-did it tell us anything? Weather concerns Ukraine & grain movement Acreage report concerns? Livestock finish the week with green Cattle traded lower most of the week Bellies see some good trade this week North/South Discounts
7-28-22 How would you describe the corn and soybean markets at this time? What amount of the corn and soybean production is too dry? What do you think the national yield is doing on corn and soybeans? How is the ethanol demand holding up? Is the corn and soybean export demand doing okay? * How does the weather forecast looks? What happens if the weather forecast changes?
7-27-22 • Fed day on Wallstreet • Ukraine moving forward • China COVID numbers • Weather • Aborted kernels
7-26-22 • Have had a recent negative feel to the trade until recently • Is the bounce that can have some stamina? • Beans close above the 200-day moving average • Weather • Is wheat along for the ride? • Friendly picture for cattle
7-25-22 • Grains are up • Price action where do we go from here • Ukraine/Russia trade deals • Sharp reversal in the dollar • Weekly exports • COF Inventory reports of Friday • Is there some pushback for the livestock?
7-22-22 How the market is shaping up with Fed meeting coming up Weather game underway COF Ukraine & grain *Need to feed the bull for cattle
7-21-22 • Grains took a drop today • Weather once again • Corn trying to hold a double bottom low • Stronger dollar • Did we ration demand on the crops? • Export movement • How is food demand?
7-20-22 Beef is the highest it’s been since Nov 30 Huge kill last week However, supply imbalance in the south COF & Inventory report out on Friday Hogs have a huge gap Grains betting on the weather
7-19-22 • Weather • Strong dollar • Weekly Crop Progress report • Ethanol margins-how is driving demand effecting • Basis in the country • Feeder cattle push higher • Strong hog export market
7-18-22 • Middle of the road session • Weather is on the forefront of everyone’s mind • Nebraska is in the bullseye • Will they be the needle mover? • Cow/heifer sales continue to move upward • Positives in the next few months
7-15-22 • Energy Markets • Fundamentals of corn & beans • Macros in the trade • Weather • Trade with China that didn’t happen
7-13-22 Re-post • Inflation • Commodities react to this information • Weather • Close to agreement on Ukraine ports • Cash feeders are on fire • Fats are struggling • USDA talks beef production
7-14-22 How would you describe the market action in the corn and soybean markets? Were there any surprises from the WASDE report earlier this week? Is our corn export demand holding up okay? What does ethanol production look like? How does our soybean export demand look? What does the US weather look like to You?
7-12-22
• Crude is down • Cotton limit down • Recession • WASDE wasn’t a big player • Are cattle ready to break out? • Protein Export numbers • China trade in general
7-8-22 • Bullish relief in the grains finally • Weather & rain in the ECB • Long term weather forecast • Fears of outside markets hasn’t gone away • Market is getting a reminder of Ukraine problems • Tuesday’s WASDE Report
7-6-22 • Recession fears • Crop conditions • Yesterday’s storms in the corn belt • Cattle & hog spreads
7-5-22 • Strong weather concerns for corn country • Grains took it hard again today • Better ethanol margins • Post holiday grain trade • Grain prices vs. livestock margins
7-1-22 • Mass selloff in the grains • Very little carryout in the grains • Cattle is it end of month new month positioning • Dryness in the plains does that bring feeders to town earlier? • North stronger than the south • Spillover support? • Drought monitor
6-30-22 How did the planted acreage survey look to you? Will there be any additional changes to acres down the road? How were the planted acreage numbers created? How were the quarterly stocks numbers created? What did the quarterly stocks look like to you? Any surprises overall in the stocks overall? How do you use the planted acreage numbers and quarterly stocks report numbers? What affects the corn and soybean markets going forward?
6-29-22 • BIG report out tomorrow-a lot of assumptions • Export trade • Basis • End of month, end of physical quarter • Holiday weekend • Open interest is down • Is it still to pricey to raise hogs in China? • How tight are the numbers in the north?
6-28-22 • Holding pattern until Thursday report • Fundamentals are still the same • Acreage report on Thursday-how much effect? • Milo is being mentioned ahead of report • Is the trade watching the forecast? • Post-harvest for South America • Are we waiting on the cash cattle trade?
6-27-22 • Beans turned-are the bright star for the markets? • Corn & beans in tandem • Acreage report out this week • Don’t go beyond the 10day outlooks • Energy reserves • Positive tone for cattle
6-24-22 • Cotton activity • Beans turn themselves around • Any improvements in weekly export numbers? • Do weekend holidays make the markets nervous? • How does this week’s markets compare to a year ago? • June planted acreage estimates
6-23-22 • Another tough day in the grains • Tax Holiday • Palm oil struggles • Will there be a recession in ag? • Will wheat continue to drop this week? • Why are livestock not reacting to lower grains?
6-22-22 • Beans went down hard • Oils suffer • Corn sees some bull spreads going on • Weather lack of rain heat issues • Energy market pressure-President’s fuel talks • Feds interest rates
6-21-21 • Back from a holiday weekend & wheat had struggles • Delay of export numbers & crop progress • Weather market continues • Grain & Ukraine • Cattle weights with heat • Hog slaughter is down
6-20-22 • Markets closed for Juneteenth • Look at outside market influence on the trade • Paris Wheat-Palm oil • Ukraine grain movement • How does Ukraine work into this fall? • Locking in inputs for the ’23 crop • We had some weakness on Friday on the trade • Weather will be an influence • Stay disciplined in the market • Heat & livestock
6-13-22 • Soybean market struggled today • Can we take the highs out of the trade? • How will heat/humidity effect livestock trade? • Hogs got a reprieve • What’s going on in the cattle market today?
6-10-22 • Quiet a move in the cattle market over the past couple of weeks • What’s on the horizon for cattle that might not be friendly • Friday WASDE report any surprises • Getting those grains locked in • Cattle weights • Consumer weigh in on higher prices
Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics, joins the Fontanelle Final Bell on Thursday to discuss the upcoming WASDE report on Friday. Zuzolo also highlights the global supply and demand that is continuing to push commodities higher. Not to be left out China continues to be a critical point for demand for global commodities and price direction.
6-7-22 • WASDE Friday • Energy markets • Crop progress • Ethanol & gas prices • Ukraine/Russia Pressure Turkey/NATO • Cattle Cutouts are starting to rise • Weights are picking up again • Packer profitability • Technical on the cattle • Hogs will have to move higher • Exports for hogs down again
6-8-22 Corn & beans focusing more on the weather maps Wheat came along for the ride Anything new with the talks with Russia Higher cattle market
6-6-22 • Higher numbers • Wheat market takes a jump coming out of the weekend • Crop conditions will be good in tonight’s report • Weekly Export numbers • South Korea opens up for U.S. pork • Lower drop in cattle market-grain pressure
6-3-22 · Large unwind we have seen on long corn vs. soybeans
· What has corn done when looking at the charts
· What are some sales thoughts going into summer?
· What about the 2023 crop with insurance levels?
· Ukraine & Russia talk with grain movements
6-2-22 Chad Moyer hosted the Thursday Fontanelle Final Bell... - the impact of Russia's "offer" to ship grain - corn value is Brazil surprisingly weakens - soybeans strength on energy - thoughts on the positive turn in cattle futures
6-1-22 Is the low in for corn? What is pushing the strength in the beans? Wheat quality is not consistent Cattle weights are down
5-26-22 What are the main factors currently affecting the corn and soybean markets? How is the 2nd corn crop in Brazil doing? What affect on the corn market will Brazil being able to sell to china have? * How is planting going in Ukraine? What do you think happens with Russia saying they are willing to establish a grain corridor out of Ukraine? How are you feeling about the planting progress in the United State? What did you think of the US government saying they will let farmers plant on CRP ground that is in the final year?
5-25-22 • China & Brazil talking • Fed Reserve • Wheat local to global demand & quality • Black Sea region • Lower cattle
Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics, joins the Fontanelle Final Bell Tuesday after a mixed to mostly lower session for the grains. The Macro market is currently playing a large role in the market as technical indicators are pushing sellers to sell the market. Zuzolo also highlights why commodities are center stage in the World Economic Forum.
5-23-22 • Planting progress this afternoon • Mixed markets for the grains today • Slow export numbers • Ethanol markets have been rangebound • Cattle on feed report from Friday • Memorial Day already factored into the markets • Cash sales early this week?
5-20-22 • Markets dominated by the macro’s • Energy markets • Planting & weather concerns • Inflationary cycle • What happens if the stock market gets in trouble?
5-18-22 Outside market influence Lower grains today Hogs moved to finish to the positive Wheat tour continues COVID & China & its import impacts Beans & China *UN and moving grains
5-17-22 Corn moved lower Beans moving slow planting pace Overall planting progress Export sales are quiet Wheat market another leader Cattle prices see early cash sales
5-16-22 • Wheat is the big news • Weekend happenings bringing up the wheat • Weather concerns from recent storms • Prevent plant? • A lot of agronomic questions will weigh on the markets going forward • Livestock dealing with higher grain
5-12-22 How did the WASDE report look overall to you? What are the biggest surprises from the report? Why was the 2022 corn yield adjusted from 181 bushels per acre to 177 bushels per acre? How you think USDA did on adjusting the exports for Ukraine? What are the factors that the corn and soybean markets focus on now? Is it too soon to get concerned about prevent plant acres in the northern plains? *How is planting going in Ukraine?
5-11-22
• USDA report out tomorrow • Expectations for the report • Crop progress • Ukraine update • Inflation data out this morning • Prevent plant is the potential there? • Corn vs. cattle market
5-10-22 • Inflation • Interest rates • Pre-report estimates • Weather • Tyson earnings • Why does cattle not go up when corn goes down (listener question)
5-9-22 • Update on the South American crop • Down day in the grains • Export trade • Two sides to the equation we are focusing on • Warm weather optimism • Mixed to lower livestock • Lower corn-why not higher cattle?
5-6-22 A lot of questions on corn & slow planting Equity markets-have to be watched Cattle struggled at the end ASF in Rome
5-5-22 Beat up of the stock market Diesel making new highs Helpful rains Slow planting place but warm next week India wheat South American drought *Ukraine still in the background
5-4-22 Feds announcement Ukraine getting some exports out Good warm up across the Midwest Production estimates in Brazil see decline *India & wheat what's behind it all?
5-3-22 Reversal in corn Any surprises in planting progress Wednesday FED Meeting Buy everything attitude in commodities is playing as well
4-29-22 EPA & E15 Wheat vs. Corn Palm oil Higher Cash China purchases & COVID lockdown Higher Cash Cattle
4-28-22 What are the major factors that the corn and soybean markets are focused on? Will weather be a Chicago concern? How is planting progress for corn looking compared to other years? What does the planting progress in Ukraine look like? How are grain shipments out of Ukraine going? Is demand for corn and soybean holding up okay with the higher prices? *How do the current prices for December futures compare to other years?
Wednesday's Fontanelle Final Bell features Arlan Suderman, Chief Economist with Stone X. The current market has a wide variety of influences, but Suderman condenses down the most important influences of the day.
The Fontanelle Final Bell on Tuesday is joined with Heather Ramsey from the ARC Group. The market is finally starting the make the transition from old crop supplies to the soon growing new crop supplies.
4-25-22 • Turn around in Corn • Came off session lows in grains • News is on the quiet side • Crop update out later today • Limit down on the livestock • Crude oil off their lows
4-22-22 • Pull back in the markets • Worst crops since ‘96 • World crops • Heifers/cows headed to market • Dry weather concerns with high feed stuffs
4-21-22 • Dry weather going into spring planting • Ethanol margins • Important high in May on the grains • Black Sea Region planting progress • South America second crop • Milk prices • Herd liquidation beef/dairy
4-20-22 Weather High inflation Corn make new highs while beans had a breakout day Brazil weather Winter Wheat index Spring planting implication *Cattle saw a breakout to the upside
4-19-22 • Turn around Tuesday • Weather • Undertone to the funds • Inflation • Short crops, crops not reaching protentional • Global crops • Movement in cattle & hogs considering what’s happening on grains
4-18-22 • $8 plus corn $17 plus beans • Natural gas prices • Corn vs. bean acre concerns • Ukraine issues with planting • Will we see more cattle sales this year? • How today’s markets are setting up cattle for ‘23
4-15-22 • Markets are closed • Weather concerns dryness • Longer term is it tougher on livestock vs. crops? • Spring planting snow to the north dry in the mid-section south wet in the east • Brazil’s second crop corn • Oilseed popularity • Drought in Middle East • Livestock heifer/cows going to market when grass is short
4-14-22 • Market drivers • Wildfires increase across the U.S. with Red Flag Warnings • Winter Wheat crop • Ukraine still a dominate factor • Dry in Argentina & drier in central Brazil • $8 corn bids • Livestock heifer/cows going to market when grass is short
4-13-22
• Inflation • E15 into the summer • Update on the South American harvest • Winter wheat conditions
4-12-22 How would you describe the corn and soybeans markets? Were there any surprises from the weekly crop progress numbers? What does the soil moisture situation look like? Question from Rick in Lexington: If/When China invades Taiwan, we have heard from congressmen and the Administration that we are prepared to impose sanctions on China. How drastically would that affect our grain market futures? Given that China is such a large buyer. Possibly why China has been buying a lot of corn recently? How is planting going in Ukraine? Is the demand holding up okay for corn for corn? *How does the demand look for soybeans?
4-11-22 • Not a lot new going on in the markets • Did the beans jump to quick after the acreage report? • Crude down again • Weather bullish corn • Ethanol margins • Post Easter livestock trade • DDGs & feedstuffs
4-8-22 • WASDE Report uneventful numbers • What does this mean down the road? • FAO Report on worldwide food costs • War in Ukraine and production • CPI numbers out next week • Weather
4-7-22 • Finally, some green on the screen for cattle • Can the rally stay? • How are the spreads doing? • June to August spreads • Economic indicators • China locks down & how that effects the U.S. • Grain prices & the toll on the livestock
4-6-22 • Smaller corn vs. larger bean areas • Wheat crop • New EU model on weather • South American crops • Ukraine crops • China/COVID & buying U.S. grain • Cows sold with feed worries
4-5-22 • Higher grains • Wheat is the story lead today • Weekly crop progress report • Old vs. new crop • Upcoming USDA report • Fertilizer prices • Cattle have another down day
4-4-22 • Monday higher trend continues • Ethanol margins remain tight • Weekly crop progress reports start today • South American crop growth • Will the sun shine for cattle? • Dry weather & feed stuff
4-1-22 • Bullish H&P but the market not doing much • Lower grains • Reaction from the USDA reports • Weather in the states & S.A. • Tight ethanol stocks • Beef movement
3-31-22 How did the prospective planting report look overall to you? What did the corn prospective planting numbers look like per state. How did the soybean prospective planting numbers looker per state. How is the quarterly stocks report created? What did the Quarterly stocks numbers look like? How did the corn quarterly stocks look at the state level? *What does the market focus on now going forward?
3-30-22 • Will there be peace? • Implications for coming year? • Acreage report & stocks report tomorrow • How fast a bit a of rain changes a wheat outlook • Ukraine’s outlook for next year • Expansion in Brazil • What it comes down to is what if’s without a lot of margin for error
3-29-22 • another wild week in the markets • brace yourself for this week-April usually turns bullish • S.A. corn crop is looking good • Correlation between oil and beans • Friendly cattle • China & testing
3-28-22 • Overall feeling working off GOP hangover • Planting intentions report out this week • China & lockdowns • Energy weakness • Dairy update • COF report reaction
3-23-22 • Dynamics of the markets • Open interest in a number of contracts • Volume is way up • Update on expectations with Ukraine in crop production • Packers playing hardball?
3-22-22 What are the major factors that market is focused on? How are old crop shipments of grain going out of Ukraine? Do you think Ukraine will get all of their crops planted this spring? At what point will the markets gets concerned about the dry conditions in the corn belt? Are you expecting any surprises of the quarterly stocks report or prospective planting report next week? What are some factors that could generate selling and a major setback in grain prices?
3-21-22 • Trade & what we are looking at heading into spring planting • TX fire near term effects on the cattle • 1988/2012 weather with 2022 • New East New West in trade
3-18-22 • Quiet Friday trade • Risk off on the trade • Waiting for the weekend weather & global Black Sea tensions • Tighter ethanol margins • Contract numbers liquidated • Quick moving market trade with positioning
3-17-22 • Old crop corn & selling • Looking ahead corn/beans • Planting is underway in the south • Cattle market feeders & fats • Hog roller coaster
3-16-22 • Feds meeting • Ukraine asking for help • South America • Volatility in the trade
3-15-22 • Quiet market • Cattle closed “ok” • Mid-month rally • Spreads are flat • A lot of feeders coming to town • Domestic demand • Exports • Is there a bottom in the boxed beef? • Nice day in the corn market
Aarron Bertels with Crossroads Marketing joins the conversation as another week kicks off with volatile trade. Bertels looks at how the global market continues to impact grains and what it all means at the farm gate.
3-11-22 • Chart action • Fundamentals of corn & beans • Macroeconomic we don’t see coming • How does this compare to 2008? • Cattle prices with trade in the corn market
3-10-22 • Wheat & stock market search • Conflict in Ukraine the grain movement could be problem in 2023 • Export movement of this grain to Europe & Asia what is their risk in planting
3-9-22 • Massive selling in the commodities today • That brought the commodities • Main market players-wheat, stock market & crude oil • Are the highs in for wheat • WASDE Report • Russia & grain
3-8-22 • Volatility in the grains • Russia & oil • WASDE Report • Patience when marketing • Broken market? • Cattle trade & grains
3-7-22 • Markets dominated by Ukraine • Markets are locked limit up on the wheat • May shift to July Contract • Are markets shifting away from S&D? • Futures markets broken • Basis • Weather
3-4-22 • Can you even buy or sell right now? • Futures markets roller coaster • Higher fuel prices • Basis in the country • Is the market “broken” right now? • Futures run ahead of the local markets • Drought cycle • Cattle prices struggle
3-3-22 Wheat getting more attention then crude oil We saw some $11 overnight Ukraine/Russia Planting prep Exports nothing to crazy Livestock feed costs
3-2-22 • Ukraine & Russia • Ethanol margins will remain tight • Corn down wheat up limit • Drought • China & trade • Cattle prices with higher grains
3-1-22 Chad Moyer filled in on today's Fontanelle Final Bell...market summary, volatility continues, potential extended limits, market reacts to increased military activity in Ukraine and Russian sanctions, how the world replaces grain sourced around the Black Sea, impact to energy markets, hogs turning a corner and following soybeans, South American update.... and more!
2-28-22 Ukraine taking over the markets Will they get crops planted Weather in the U.S. Final Crop Insurance averages There is some good news in this year's crop South America corn crop progress South American rain & U.S. rain Winter wheat concerns
2-25-22 • Russia & Ukraine • Volatility in the markets • Stock market • Wheat quality • China & beans • Cattle backing off a bit • Hogs have had a good run
2-23-22 • Marketing the processes • Not a big reason to go out and sell today • Without selling where could new crop corn & beans go • Acre numbers • Not going to see a fast drop • Drought out west • Feed costs vs. raising livestock
2-22-22 • Outside market influences effecting the trade • 16.35 beans • Drought worries for cattle • Hog prices continue to go higher
2-21-22 What are the main factors that the market is watching? How is South American weather looking? Do you think we have seen the lowest number corn and soybean production numbers out of South America? Is the market concerned about the Safrihna corn crop? What are the most important numbers out of the USDA outlook forum that is on Thursday and Friday of this week? Does the market put much weight in the Corn and soybean Acreage numbers from the USDA Outlook forum? What does the US acreage battle look like?
2-18-22 • $16.00 beans • New high closes in corn & beans • Uncertainty with Russia & Ukraine • South American crops/weather • Big strength in livestock even with some negative numbers • Higher hogs • Firmer feeders even with higher corn • Milk prices firmer
2-17-22 • Not the rally we wanted but still finished in the green • Russia Ukraine • Drought Monitor Map • 1.43 cash • Filled a gap in the hogs
2-16-22 • Russian risk is back on • Soybeans & meal leading the markets • Is corn following beans? • Louis Dreyfus fire in Indiana • Trade some South American Weather • Combines are in Southern Brazil confirming low yields • Cash cattle trade
2-15-22 • Russia Ukraine • Are we taking a break in the markets? • Are funds ready to bail? • Tough for beans is the S.A. crop problem
2-14-22 • Russia & Ukraine • Headlines add to the market trade • 2008 & Inflation • Seen a break in the March bean contract-that equals some risk • Bullish feal will it continue • 2012
2-11-22 • Grains see some volatility • A bounce back in the metals • Global effects on the trade • Feed costs
2-10-22 • Slaughter pace is up in cattle • How high could they go • Big swings in the markets • Heifer sales due to dryness • WASDE & beef • Market that can’t go down won’t go down • Volatility all across the board • Crop Insurance
2-9-22 • China in buying • USDA WASDE Report • Where do we go from here? • Weather patterns in Brazil & Argentina • Cuts to China how does that fit in? • Long range weather models for spring/summer
2-8-22 • So many layers in the markets • USDA Report • South American planting & weather • Ukraine issues & the effects on the grain • How high can corn & beans go? • Emotional layers • Weakness in Ethanol
2-7-22 How are the corn and soybean markets doing today? How does the weather look in South America? What is the market expecting for South American Production in the WASDE report on Wednesday, February 9th. Do you think the South American Production estimates will get smaller going forward? What is the market expecting for US and World Ending corn and soybean stocks in the WASDE report? Do you think the US and World ending Stocks will get bigger or smaller down the road? *How concerned are you about the increasing amount of ethanol stocks?
2-4-22 How did the markets do for the week? What are the main factors driving the markets in the short-term? How does the weather look in South America? What do South American Soybean Production estimates look like? When was the last time crude oil prices were this high? How is corn and soybean demand looking with the higher prices? *What are some factors that the market will start paying more attention to?
2-3-22 Markets move lower Yesterday's corn was a risk off Is there some macro pressure? Lack of bullish news on the trade day China cancellations First pull back with the beans Energy is off Crude is off Russia is kinda quiet Weather picture in SA is uneventful
2-2-22 Updated estimates out of Brazil Russia/Ukraine conflict weather in South America Demand in China
2-1-22 Soybeans took a jump Overall big picture Russia & Ammonium Nitrate Fertilizer plant fire Cattle Inventory Report Bean prices & hogs bottom line
1-28-22 • Trade that saw markets push towards new highs on the grains • Old Crop & New Crop movement for producers • Basis levels • Ethanol margins deteriorating • Will we see China back in the market stronger? • Higher feed cost concerns for livestock
1-27-22 • Ag markets are all over the place • Geopolitical -confusing best way to describe • Fertilizer concerns • Coffee & Coco markets hit hard • Movement with weather • Cattle trade & meat counter movement
1-26-22
Moving into higher prices how are corn & beans trading? What are the main factors driving the markets in the short-term? How does the weather look in South America? Have there been any recent surprises out of South American Production? Why are the markets so concerned about the situation between Russian and Ukraine? What is behind the strength in crude oil and what impact does that have on the corn and soybean markets? *How is corn and soybean demand looking with the higher prices?
1-25-22
• 6.20 corn • Is higher grain going to take a toll on livestock • Planting reports coming up • South America-what is weather doing to bean prices • Wheat struggles • Is the break there for corn at the best price or will we make new highs? • Retail pushback from a consumer perspective
1-24-22
• Market influence on the cattle • Fundamental issues on the cattle • Reaction to COF • Is there some retail pushback? • Should weights need to be coming down? • What are the market movers needed for the livestock? • Russia/Ukraine
1-21-22
• Soybean market moves • Corn production movement • Dryness continues in the U.S. • Livestock movement
1-20-22
• Soybeans traded higher • Need to finish the wave counts • Bean market is seeing a trifecta • South America-lack of bean selling • China & Trade • Livestock react to grain prices
1-19-22
Russia/Ukraine Higher Grain numbers Wheat market & selling momentum South America rain effects beans Corn crop and dry weather in February Inflation story is back *China & cattle
1-18-22
• Markets back after a 3-day weekend • Russia & Ukraine • U.S. & South American Weather • Not a lot until planting intentions to move the needle • Covid continues how does that effect livestock?
1-17-22
• Trade is closed for the day • What will be coming back with come Tuesday • Weather in South America • Wheat issues continue • Cattle
1-14-22
- summary of the week's trade
- moisture in south American weather forecast
- influence of crude oil/stock market
- update on corn demand
- potential wheat business
- quick check on the technical
- potential support in cattle futures
1-13-22
• WASDE Report • 2023 Contracts-defined pattern in corn • World bean stocks brought down-how compares to privates? • Good news for cattle feeders in the Wednesday report • Planting costs ’21 vs ‘22
1-12-22
• WASDE Report • Any surprises • Inflation numbers • Weather update in South America • Slowdown in packer processing
1-11-22
• Absenteeism at the plants • Brings down lower kill days • Weather is adding to the weights-that is negative • Futures are not trading a big premium to the cash • Big meat appetites for proteins • Big margins steady firm for cash • India to open up for pork • ASF in Italy • Are hogs undervalued? • USDA report out on Wednesday • Friendly corn
1-10-22 • Kept some of the rain in the forecast • Warm weather but not as hot as the last weeks hype • Winter wheat crop • Wednesday USDA report • Supreme Court and E15 • Bio fuels in general • Cash cattle & slaughter struggles
1-7-22 Weather continues to be the water cooler talk January 12th report Wheat correction Spike trade in milk Temporary spike in class III prices Packing plant movement
1-6-22 • Fed & interest rates • Feeder cattle fundamentals • Could we see more wheat cattle coming to town earlier? • Sickness at plants
1-5-22
• Brazil team updates soybean & corn crop estimates • Weather in South America • Big cuts in winter wheat crops • December Fed Meeting-big impact on markets • Absentee in the slaughter plants • China & export demand
1-4-22 • Interesting marketing times • USDA report coming up • Weather • Really seeing a two-sided trade • China needs to buy when China needs to buy • Is there COVID concerns on marketing livestock?
12-31-21 How did the corn and soybean markets perform for the week? What were the corn and soybean prices one year ago? How would you describe the current corn and soybean markets? How does the corn demand for ethanol look? What do the corn exports look like? How do the soybean exports look? What does South American weather look like? How far along are the crops in South America?
12-30-21
• End of year mix with the trade • South America is starting to get more attention • It’s not ALL about South America • Ethanol demand, why the drop since Thanksgiving? • Profit margins should be lucrative for ethanol • What will 2022 bring & will ethanol be the one to hold corn • Dryness & fires in KS effecting winter wheat • Soybean meal big surprise high prices continue • Export sales are not doing well for beans • Crush is on fire in the U.S.
12-29-21 • Typical holiday trade • Will the choppiness continue going into ‘22 • South American weather • Look back at ’21 and issues for ‘22 • Cash cattle looking several dollars higher than last week
12-28-21 • March corn chart • Holiday trade • End of year • Southern hemisphere • Protein demand heading into 2022
12-27-21 • Beans-dryness on Southern Brazil & Argentina • River levels & marketing • U.S. dryness • Cattle on Feed Report • Hogs & Pigs Report of Thursday
Jeff Peterson of Heartland Farm Partners joins the Fontanelle Final Bell just before the Christmas holiday. Peterson discusses how the grain complex performed on the week. Along with a look at how export demand is lining up to USDA expectations. Peterson also highlights what the crops look like currently in South America.
12-17-21
Todd Hultman, DTN Lead Market Analyst talks corn and soybeans at the close of the trading week.
DTN Lead Market Analyst Todd Hultman takes an in depth look at the corn and soybean market complex. Hultman tackles questions for both domestic and global supply and demand.
12-16-21 • Demand shift from China • Bullish tone changes in the markets • Production & Demand vs. inflationary concerns • Finally, a market move we all can understand • Improved outlook on China can we fit the picture? • Weather has not improved • Blowout from the winds in wheat country
12-15-21
• Sharply lower wheat prices • Wind damage to the winter wheat market • Cash market is red hot but futures are not for wheat • Corn market trading sideways-upward bias • Fed meeting wrapping up today • Some rate hikes could be coming our way • Cash cattle down a couple more dollars • Chain speeds are slowing-packers in no hurry to buy
12-14-21 • Beans have turned positive • On breaks you get demand • All eyes are on South American weather • Fertilizer costs-what type of issues in South America? • Stumble in the cattle market
12-13-21 Weather Wheat trade Corn & beans are they ready for 2021 to be over? Holiday trade *Will cash cattle still be lower?
12-10-21 • Recap of the WASDE report-looking towards Jan report • Holiday trade is already setting in • Wheat has first bearish wheat report in awhile • Domestic demand for cotton & wool will be a good thing for ag • Dollar trade going into next week
12-9-21 • WASDE Report came out today • China reversed inflationary bias • Livestock sales • Are we pricing ourselves out of the meat counter sales?
12-7-21 Market got wind of EPA numbers for mandates Russia & Ukraine New COVID variant not as bad China/Trade/Olympics Weather in South America China & Phase 1
12-6-21 Weather in South America & areas of the U.S. Corn pencils better into '22 Beans-China buys Wheat finishes unchanged Oil up $3 Can cash cattle hold this week?
12-3-21 * How did the corn and soybean markets perform for the week? Why did the corn spread between December and March do down so much this week? How is ethanol production doing? What does the corn exports look like? How does the soybean exports look? What does South American weather look like? Are corn and soybean production numbers changing much out of South America? *Is corn and soybeans above or below fair value at this time?
12-2-21 • OPEC • COVID variant • Economy • Cattle market has been resilient on the trade • Do we have supplies still out there? • Some contract highs-but there is a however • Manage money- • Cash Market can it rally • Retail meats is not cheap • How are we on year-to-date numbers on beef
12-1-21 • COVID • US National Debt • COVID & the White House with funding • We have changed how we analyze the markets • Brazil updated production estimates • Weather in South America • What is some of the biggest driving factors with the past couple of days?
11-30-21 • Another drop in the trade • What is going on with the trade? • Its not just the corn & beans that are struggling • How do we move forward? • Inventory squared away heading into ‘22
11-29-21 Virus and worries Wheat took it hard Tough day all across the trade South American weather Is there a reverse in the cattle market?
11-24-21 • Big sell off in wheat • Surge in the cash cattle prices • Strong dollar-Euro collapsing-what’s going on? • Crops in South America-outlook for December is dryer • Corn trying to protect its acreage for next year
11-23-21 • Holiday week has set in • Funds position • Ethanol margins-strong • Light selling out of South America • Heavy rains in Australia & Canada • LA Nina is around but not a story maker yet • Poor exports • Cattle continue to climb • Hogs
11-22-21 • Global weather more sensitive to the trade • Export inspections • Blender margins • Crop progress report info is slowing down • Holiday week • Friday’s Cattle on feed pretty neutral • Will cash continue to grow strong? • Demand for product-getting to $$? • Should we be worried about a weaker cash hog market?
11-19-21 How did the corn and soybean markets perform for the week? What does the ethanol margins and corn demand for ethanol look like? How are soybean crush margins and soybean crush doing? What does the corn exports look like? How does the soybean exports look? How is South American weather looking? *What do you think happens to corn and soybean basis levels down the road?
11-18-21 • Pull back on the markets • Export sales-what about China? • Meat counter prices • COF report of tomorrow
11-17-21 • Soybean breakout • What was going on with corn • How or if was wheat different • Soybean demand and hog demand in China • They buying grain sorghum • South America • Cattle losing some energy
11-15-21 • Beans • Meal • Corn struggles • Dollar bull • South America crop • Cash Cattle excitement could continue
11-12-21 • Corn and bean action • Soybean meal explodes did that help beans? • Is there any nervous trade from the feeder cattle? • Export numbers delayed a day due to holiday • December basis
11-11-21 • Soybean growth in South America • Beans blew up to the upside • Ethanol margins are huge • WASDE didn’t give us anything new • Some profitability still there on corn • Numbers on cattle will continue to tighten • Hogs-what’s going on with their cash?
11-10-21 Disconnect between cash cattle optimism and cattle futures apathy Attitude in the hogs seems to be turning positive Grain traders further digest WASDE Wheat leads corn higher *Inflation influences
11-8-21 • Report is out tomorrow • Summarizing since October report • Pre-report estimates • Will we have extra bean acres in ’22? • Outside market includes including silver • Can cattle continue to be in the driver’s seat?
11-5-21 Soybean market struggles during the week Corn & wheat follow beans lower *Cattle producers in the drivers seat on bids
11-4-21 • Beans had some struggles • Corn • Wheat • Dollar • Fertilizer run • Cattle trade • June hogs of next year
11-3-21 • Fed statement ahead brought a broad selloff • COVID in China causing some concerns • South American Weather • StoneX latest customer production survey • Stumble of earlier this week with feeder cattle
11-2-21 • Many didn’t see the rally coming • How do we take advantage of prices? • Is South American pressure on our markets? • Elevator talks • Hogs had some bad cash news • $7 swing in feeder cattle
11-1-21 • Cattle feeders saw some sizeable volume • How does that set the tone for the week? • Can we push the cash market higher this week? • How does the feel of last week vs. this week? • Gas is taking a jump, shipping issues will this mean a pull back at the meat counter • Higher corn on a Monday
10-29-21 Oats wheat on fire Corn ramping up What about the beans? Will they ramp up? China & trade Bullish fundamentals in cattle & hogs-have the hogs bottomed High grain no hay-now what?
10-28-21 • Midwest weather & wind • Biggest surprise in the trade was the wheat market • Barge freight rates • Soybean’s struggle • Any basis issues? • New monthly low in the dollar • Cattle waiting on more trade • Hogs look at stronger export trade
10-27-21 • Feedlot dares to pass a bid • 126-127 on the bids • Are we getting leverage back on the cattle? • We need to watch the slaughter numbers • Finally moving past all the tech issues at the plants • Boxed beef going higher • Very low open interest • Hogs suffering a lack of perfect demand • Grains see corn have a big day • Wheat is high • Oats continue to move higher • Inflationary movers • Took out 100 day moving average • Friendly corn vs. beans • South America’s crop
10-26-21 Overall trend in the markets Are we in a downward trend? Do you hold corn/beans going into the new year? Any weather concerns? Export buying? Was wheat frustrating for you? Lack of demand bring heavy weight hogs ASF & Russia Big surprises still talked about from placement numbers 50-day moving average for cattle
10-25-21 What did you think of the market action today? Were you surprised by corn being unchanged today with soybeans and wheat being higher? How did the export shipments for corn and soybeans look to you today? Do you think corn and soybean shipments will pick up? What do you think corn and soybean harvest progress will be like in this afternoon’s report? How is planting and weather in South America? *What do you do with unsold soybeans?
10-15-21 • Long term WASDE didn’t chance the market outlook • Soybean crush numbers • Closing bean numbers for the week • LaNina and effects on the markets • Harvest activity • Planting activity in Brazil • Funds and their positions
10-14-21 • Markets still digesting the report • How much demand will affect the trade? • Growing crops in South America • Basis continues to rally • Improving ethanol margins • Marketing through harvest • Input costs for ‘22 • Triple digit gains in live & feeder cattle • Export market trade for livestock
10-13-21
- Commodity-wide sell-off in grains and livestock
- Energies and Veg Oils
- Inflation indicators and longer term impacts
- Export capacity, containers, and freight rates
- South America planting update
- Cattle and Hogs caught in the slide today
10-12-21 • WASDE Report • USDA raised some price projections • Stagnant cash trade • Price of beef in the store can people still afford to it • Pork side of the trade and global markets • Some cash trades today • Big drops in the soybeans
10-11-21 • 12’s changed to 11’s very fast on the beans • Pre-report day feels • Coal prices • China buying pork • Mad cow in Great Britain
10-8-21 • Indecision in the markets • More data coming next week • A lot of lack of follow through in the markets • A lot of outside market influence • Energy markets adding pressure to the grains • Expectations on next week’s report • Dollar influence
10-7-12
• Grains moved higher • Have an October report coming up with some early report estimates • China has been on holiday • Inflationary talk will we see it play out in the grains? • Balance sheets around the world • Some weather concerns in South America • Bright trade with the livestock with green on the screen • China a bigger buyer of beef-appetite is there • Some bullish fundamentals in the trade
10-6-21 Inflation expectations & ag Updated yield estimates South America crop update China and power outages how that could impact soybeans
10-5-21 • Corn closed lower then what was wanted • Soybeans made up some time • Are markets in a downtrend? • What is the conversation with growers? • Store vs. elevator • Next week’s WASDE report • How is South America doing on planting? • Basis for grain? • Is there buyer support in the cattle market?
10-4-21 • Slow Monday • Chinese resolutions team • Harvest is underway • Cyber concerns • Counter party risk when marketing • Next week’s WASDE Report
9-30-21 What does the quarterly stocks report tell us? How is the quarterly stocks report created? Any surprises from the Quarterly stocks report today? How did the corn stocks look for Nebraska and Iowa? Are the soybeans stocks lower than last year in Nebraska and Iowa? What does the larger soybeans stocks mean for the 2020 soybean crop? What does the larger corn stocks mean for the 2020 corn crop? What will the corn and soybean markets be focused on going forward? *How are corn and soybean prices going to be impacted going forward?
10-29-21 • Weather delays harvest but still a good thing • Quartey grain stocks report out tomorrow • Outside market influence on the trade • Gov’t shutdown? • Fertilizer prices • Elevator vs. ethanol grain bids
9-27-21 Stocks report out on Thursday 2022 corn Harvest continues Marketing off the combine Could the basis get worse in the country? Fertilizer costs Energy costs Hogs have had a good run
9-27-21 • Higher grains • Harvest numbers • USDA Report coming up on Thursday • Will Hurricane Ida be in the report? • Higher numbers in yields to the south • Ethanol vs. natural gas prices • South America planting
9-24-21 • Harvest-progress • Precipitation in the 8-14 day forecast • Change for the week on corn, beans, wheat & oats • Fall basis levels • Seasonality of the markets
9-23-21 • Recovery in prices • Yields • When is the low coming in the markets? • Some export purchases announced • China 2021 vs. 2022 • Cattle struggles
9-22-21 • Commodities lifted higher Evergrand story brings positive news • Reuters tried to kill the markets today with biofuels story • Some bull spreading the markets today • South American Weather • Open harvest weather • Soybean focus • Disease problems in corn • Struggles in cattle buying
9-21-21 Outside Markets - hangover from Chinese real estate/financial situation China on holiday.... returns to trade tonight Early yields/basis - Will Harvest '21 return to more seasonal pattern or repeat '20? South America/Australia update Cattle/hogs in opposite situations Preview Cattle on Feed report
9-20-21 • Chinese slow down • Deflationary movement can be expected this fall • Stocks also got hit hard on a Monday • Harvest underway • Now is time for livestock producers to lock in feed • Cold winter is forecast • Lows for cattle are they there?
9-17-21 • Early morning trade had some struggles • Start of harvest • Some elevators taking higher moisture corn-worried of need? • Basis now through storage season • Gulf clean up continues • Dollar trade • Are we catching our breath? • Will this week’s low hold in cattle? • How is demand headed into fall? • How friendly is the 4th quarter? • Buying light weight calves-issues?
9-16-21 What are you hearing for harvest progress? Will we see better or worse corn and soybean yields by the final yield? Where is the export situation at the Gulf? Why is old crop corn basis so strong and what do you think it will do going forward? What do you think will happen to the corn and soybean basis after harvest? What should be done with unsold bushels corn and soybean bushels that need to be delivered to town at harvest? Should hedges be rolled forward or do you think the carry will improve as we get closer to harvest? Do you think we will see higher futures prices down the road?
9-15-21 Harvest Yields already a disappointment Corn ethanol production Is the carry in the market telling us anything? Why higher prices today?
9-14-21 Fundamentals of the trade Hurricane clean up with more worries on the way Oats Knows How do you market corn & beans if you haven't done so yet? Fund Positions Quarterly stocks
9-13-21 • Getting ready for harvest • Gulf export update • Pent up export demand • Final stretch to harvest • Cattle still sees the struggle • Hogs continue the down trek
9-10-21 Grain market reaction to today's report Can we get confidence with this cash cattle market? Bull spreads in the cattle WASDE report does have some meat news Fall run for feeder cattle Herd disbursements
9-8-21
• USDA posts numbers early • How does that set the tone going into Friday’s report? • Is weather much of an issue? • LaNina and getting South America crops planted • Roller coaster cattle market • July export data showed 3rd largest beef export on record
9-7-21 • Tough day all around for the markets • Good weather • Exports • Waiting for Sept. data • Hurricane Ida still holding these markets • Friday’s report-data changes • Bigger private estimates • A cattle push of a week and a half ago has caused for a downfall • BSE in Brazil
9-6-21 During a Labor Day special, Jeff Peterson looks at the effects of Hurricane Ida on the grain industry.
9-3-21 weekly grain moves
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Hurricane Ida impacts linger
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grain exports supportive
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'21 crop finishing and harvest logistics
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tough week for cattle
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WASDE Sept 10 preview, other market focus after Labor Day
9-2-21 • Update on the Gulf • Brazil harvest numbers • Basis • Cash prices • Cattle trade • Export Sales for proteins
9-1-21 • Liquidation phase in the markets • Hurricane Ida • USDA will be reviewing acres before the Sept 10 report • Updated Brazil estimates • Slowing fund liquidation and feeder…some cattle moving a dollar higher • Short holiday week coming up • Canada labor dispute with a hog slaughter plant
8-31-21 • Not surprising to see negative this time of year • Crop size isn’t the focus of the trader • Demand for corn isn’t very exciting • Hurricane Ida • Weather • Conversations with clients-fall basis • Cattle continues to struggle
8-30-21 • Hurricane Ida & the Mississippi • How is the gulf going to affect my prices? • Weather brings the shut off of pivots • Ethanol movement • Cash cattle of last week all over the board-will it continue • Trying to rally the hog prices
8-27-21 • Uncertainty in the cattle market • Disappointment in the kill numbers • Will you miss August futures? • Cash has been all over the board • ASF talk caused for a moment of panic • Grains broke early on the rains • Basis in the country
8-26-21 How would you describe the overall situation in the corn and soybean markets? What do crop conditions and soil moisture look like for the corn and soybean crop? As we approach the end of the crop year, how is export demand looking? Is the ethanol demand holding in okay? What does it look like in South America? What do you think will happen to the futures spreads between now and harvest? What do you think will happen to the basis between now and harvest?
8-25-21 • Markets telling us several things • Rains • Front months are leading-demand story • Bounced off of support levels • Mpls had weakness in the front months • Farmer selling off the combine or holding and waiting • Cattle prices see mixed are we testing those ’16 levels? • Cash Cattle trade disappointing • Hogs are bouncing again
8-24-21 • Corn following beans • Beans took out resistance • Could it all be fueled by the crop conditions report? • Bean demand back in the US • Placing grain orders & storage • Cattle highest since ‘16 • Some cattle correction underway • Pressure building for hogs
8-23-21 • Do we have a normal seasonal headed into harvest? • Is there a fear of shorter numbers? • A lot of grain bids going up in the country • Weather focus-what does it mean for the crop • South America numbers • Is China going to keep buying corn & beans? • Huge packer margins • Friday’s COF results • Hog market has some huge discounts to the cash • Cash hogs trying to come down
8-20-21 • Are the tops in on the grains? • Early harvest pressure? • ProFarmer Crop tour didn’t bring a lot of surprises • Rain in the Midwest • Is the rain bearish for soybeans? • China over buys corn & beans with ASF situation? • Dairy prices • Cattle & meat price-herd liquidation will that continue? • Is now the time to buy feed for fall?
8-18-21 China update with COVID & its impact LaNina starting up again ProFarmer Crop tour-thoughts? Some dry 30 day areas Cattle see higher numbers Boxed Beef trade Trucking shortages in moving processed proteins
8-16-21 • Price action since the Thursday report • Are we seeing a pulling markets close? • Seeing some advantages in US vs SA prices • ProFarmer crop tour • Hogs-what are your thoughts on the August expiration?
8-13-21 Weekly crop progress-many questioning the numbers Export sale numbers this week Corn Global shortfall for wheat Beans Producers buying grain for fall feed needs
8-12-21 How did the crop reports look? What was one of the biggest surprises from the crop report? How did USDA determine the yields for this report? What do you think we will see yields do down the road? What do you think will be demand adjustments down the road?
8-10-21 World crop numbers USDA Conditions report-had some significant numbers with not a lot of impact Weekly exports USDA Report-moving past the numbers Corn & soybean charts
8-9-21 • Is there life in this Thursday’s report? • Actual data might not be until October report • Any harvest info out of Brazil? • Low water levels in Argentina • Drop once again in livestock • What is happening in the hogs? • Limit down does this break through summer lows for hogs? • Demand & boxes good for cattle • COVID-do we start to see stock up starting? • Prepping for harvest
8-6-21 • Sideways pattern will continue • Is a breakout headed our way? • Short term models taken out of the forecast • Dryness around the nation • Not much rain set for the rest of August • Supply & Demand for August 12th • World demand & balance sheet • Livestock feed supply heading into fall/winter
8-5-2 Price action going into next week's report Drought monitor Crop tour Global demand Crop loss Drop in livestock trade Cash late to develop for cattle
8-2-21 • Did finish on an up day • Crop conditions • Ethanol margins • Holding on till Thursday the 12th • Basis for corn & beans • Marketing in August • Seasonal low in beef? • Feed variable • Cash movement
7-30-31 • Livestock saw lower numbers • Some bullish points in the market • We need the cash market to change • Movement of meat is an issue-demand is there, but it’s the restaurant side of it • Hogs ASF in the DM • Herd dispersal issue for fall or 2022 • Grains lower can feeders take advantage
7-28-21 • Feds statement-did markets react or will they from today • Spring wheat tour is underway • Markets for corn & beans are having processing the good & the bad • How do we get direction going in these markets? • More crop rating declines-next week will show hot & dry • Could cash cattle ask for higher prices this week?
7-7-21 Where are the markets on the fence? Warmer drier weather pattern Weekly crop progress What's the demand for grain? What if demand doesn't hold up? Ethanol mandate-what would that mean to corn? A lot can happen with the markets between now & harvest What does this all mean for livestock?
7-26-21 • Weather-nerves with warm weather • Balance sheets • Struggle • Charts with 4th waves • Traders market both bulls & bears are getting beat up • Look how much has changed in 6 months • Will basis have any changes considering current weather/crop feels?
7-23-21 Markets seem to bring a slow day Weather will be a factor for both grains & livestock Front end on the near future looks lower Demand is understated South American weather Long term demand will be bullish Cattle market is stuck in a range Supplies will tighten Will COVID reign people in? Cold storage kind of friendly
7-22-21 Why did we see the big pull back in corn and soybean prices earlier today? What is causing the big ranges in trade? Are there factors that could get more attention going forward? How is the best way to compare supply and demand info from one year to the next? Do you think corn and soybean prices are undervalued or overvalued according to supply and demand information? What do you think crop condition ratings will do in the report on Monday? How do our current soil moisture and crop conditions compare to past years? How does the basis levels look for old crop and new crop corn and soybeans? If you had unsold old crop bushels, would you sell here or would you wait?
7-20-21 • Weather • Crop ratings • Corn & bean production • How tight inventory is • Carryout • How is this crop supply different from the past 7 years? • Global pressure on our production • Strategy vs. the outlook on cattle prices • How does the producer handle pricing on feed stuffs in the current market?
7-16-21 Weather Crop conditions going into Monday Smallest demand numbers on the year Canada crops Brazil booking corn from Argentina Russia is dry Wheat in Minneapolis was the market leader Seasonal downturn coming for wheat-but will it work? More up in hogs before we could sell them Cattle are struggling to get out of their own way Charts are not spiffy on cattle
7-15-21 Markets pricing in weather concerns Early week report didn't set up much in the market trade ECB weather & crops ND Crop has had issues Corn & bean basis Soft tone to the exports Feeder cattle adjust to what corn is doing Live cattle is caught in the middle
7-14-21 • China buying U.S. beans • Primary reason for higher grains, is the weather next 10 days hot & dry • More detrition in corn & bean crop conditions • Update on Brazil on their crops • La Nina talks • China happenings • Hogs & China • Why is Texas so deep in the cattle?
7-13-21 Crop report was neutral Tight stocks in canola 3 days of limit up What is happening in Brazil with the corn crop What does the weather look like? Seasonal in corn Looking to the August report
7-12-21 • USDA Report • Worries about Brazil’s expectations for next year • Timely rains • Tour around country side • Have we banked to much on the crops? • Struggle the cattle have had
7-9-21 Why did we see the big pull back in corn and soybean prices this week? With the rains that are forecasted, will that be enough rain to finish the crop out? How will USDA determine the yield for the crop report on Monday? What is the market expecting for the WASDE report on Monday? What do you think the crop report says on Monday? How does the basis levels look for old crop and new crop corn and soybeans? How close do you think corn and soybeans are getting to finding a bottom in prices? Would you sell here or would you wait to sell?
7-7-21 • Interesting price action today • Weather pushed yesterday’s sales • How do the markets relate to each other? • Rain to this point & going forward • Livestock looks at export data for May • Why was there pressure then today in the markets? • Hurricane Elsa
7-6-21 • Time of year that we see what we see • Rain models were a big driver • Crude oil was down hard that amongst others led to pressure • Ethanol & energy taking it on the chin • E15 long term effects • Feeder cattle movement with drop in corn • Is the support there for the lean hogs? • Past the 4th-next big holiday is Labor Day
7-5-21-special holiday Final Bell How fast does demand fall? Feels of the market Weather in the US and Brazil A look at the markets with the trade closed
7-2-21 • Weather outlook through end of July • Frost in Brazil • Deflationary episode that could happen this fall & China • E15 turn around • Hurricane Update-does that bring Midwest weather • Dairy looses food box program-it takes a toll
6-30-21 Markets react to USDA reports Freeze in Brazil US Weather Turf covered in cattle *Holiday shortened kills
6-29-21 • Potential outcomes from acreage and stalks • Corn & bean spreads • June report weighs heavier than other reports • Ethanol fears with refinery waivers ease • Cattle seeing some consolidation going into this report tomorrow? • Holiday trade & processing
6-28-21 • Cattle influenced • Some fund rolls • Long term are we going to be, okay? • A lot of females coming to town • Heading into a holiday weekend? • China looking for hogs? • Trade dominated by July forecast • Markets & extreme temps in the PNW • A variety of reports due out this week • Weekly crop progress report
6-24-21
• Weather mixed feast or famine • What is beneficial out of the storms & what is not • How does CME look at all of this? • China is buying again • Is it hard to be long the market when it’s raining? • USDA reports next week • Buying spring wheat, winter wheat, Chicago • Sing song on the grain vs. feeder cattle market • Buying cattle • Struggle drop in hogs
6-22-21 How would you describe the current situation in the corn and soybean markets? With corn and soybean conditions going lower, why is the market going lower? How do the current crop corn and soybean crop conditions look? What do the top soil and subsoil moisture levels look like? Where are we in steps of a weather market? How is the corn demand for ethanol looking? What are your thoughts on next weeks planted acreage? Are you expecting any surprises in the quarterly stocks report next week?
6-21-21 • Beans are up on the trade • End of the month acreage numbers as we head into the second ½ of yr • Ethanol margins-short term demand is solid • RINS in the 1.6 billion worth of credits • Hogs are bouncing, but futures haven’t caught up yet • Does higher feeders set the tone for this week?
6-18-21 Rollercoaster of a week in markets Latest Drought Monitor Weather Trading the new limits Lack of info from the wheat harvest Current on numbers weights are starting to drop Foreign demand for grains & proteins
6-17-21 • Limit down corn • Crazy tough market day • How will the cards all fall back into place? • China limiting • Fed statements • Risk off environment • Biden Administrations & biofuels • Brazil & the corn crop • Nebraska to be a grain hot spot? • HOT weather & cattle • Better for cash cattle • Boxes will move lower • Hogs have limit down trade
6-14-21 • Hot temps • Tough day for the grains today • Will continue to be a weather market • Brazil reneging on corn? • How do you be disciplined with these markets • Warmer temps & winter wheat • Cattle markets & the grain trade
6-11-21 • Rain that moved into Iowa • RFS from the Biden Administration-caught market off guard • Day after WASDE report • Winter Wheat movement • Spring wheat will be the leader • Cattle saw a big moves • Feeders reacting to lower corn
6-10-21 • USDA Report • Big move in old crop beans • Crush numbers…are the beans there • Imports for beans- 20 million have yet to be imported • Aggressive reaction to the report hit the beans • Marketing in a weather-related market • Is the hog market going to hit highs of 2014?
6-8-21 Weather will continue to be a focus Grains close lower 1/2 of the trading range Shipping issues in S.A. Drought & cattle
6-7-21 • Warm temps-crop development • Strong ethanol margins, RIN value hot • Strong global demand • Brazil to China…huge exports of beans out of S.A. • Demand market with a weather component • Winter wheat took the lead overnight • Employment at the packer • Demand for beef for huge • Hogs have been on fire • Packers making, boxed beef & what producer is getting • Long term in the cattle industry
6-4-21 • JBS Cyberattack • Cash market continues to limp along • Oversupply of cattle in Kansas & Texas • Demand is nothing short of outstanding • Customer wants to buy • Hogs are running on fumes • Blend of technical • Influence on the negative-building in the weather • Basis softening on the corn • Could see a run at the old highs for corn • Soybeans getting a head & shoulder feel
6-3-21 How does the condition of the corn crop compare to past years? Is the market concerned with the current weather conditions? What are the main factors impacting this market at this time? How does a weather market develop? What stage in the weather market are we currently? How is export demand holding up? *Is ethanol demand for corn doing okay?
6-1-21 • Planting progress on the beans • Freeze & weather issues • USDA crop ratings • Export inspections for corn remain strong, beans as well • Ethanol margins remain strong • JBS & cyber attack
5-31-21 On this special Memorial Day program PJ Conradt with Tredas looks at the markets going into the summer months.
5-28-21 Is the high in for the grains? Weather will continue to be an issue Update on the Brazil 2nd crop Dry drought pattern Grain Basis Livestock pressure
5-27-21 • Nice turn around in the grain markets • No real weather issues…so what does that mean for summer? • Volatility continues in the trade • No cancelations from China • Volume wasn’t as good as it was on Wednesday • Heading into a holiday weekend • Grain basis • Weekly exports numbers • Don’t change your thought process with these markets • What do we need for BPA in corn & beans?
5-26-21
• Eb & flow continues as we try to find value • China buying/looking rumors • Trading technical, need to look at long term fundamentals • Anticipated size of the U.S. crop • Grain purchases for China with ASF
5-25-21 • Just remember markets can go higher & lower than people think • Could we price in a big acreage number? • Weather market, but as we see it can rain in drought areas • What are the charts telling us? • Trading bearish-how long will it last? • Is there a chance to ride this out? • China tone with commodity prices • Secondary run in the markets? • Could we have seen the highs for the marketing year? • Bean market struggle bus
5-24-21 Big break in the markets · Normal process of marketing’s in May for the bears · Tight supplies-does that worry you? · Ethanol margins improve slightly · End of the bull market has been over exaggerated · China purchases last week-what does the actions say? · Don’t rush to the exit to soon · After May Gov’t is moving away from buying dairy · Good time for livestock guys to get some good feed prices · Lower prices for cash cattle?
5-20-21 What are the items that the market is the most concerned about? Is the market still concerned about Brazilian corn? Who will supply the corn that Brazil is short? Are our export inspections doing okay? How are exports sales doing? Why is China buying so much corn? Is the corn demand for ethanol holding up okay? What do you think corn basis levels will do going forward? *Why has the soybean basis dropped so much lately?
5-19-21 Everything is selling but the proteins What is going on in the fundamentals? Wheat tour is underway in KS China buying are they done? Brazil crop getting smaller Feeder cattle & corn prices *Cow herd liquidation
5-18-21 Soybeans testing the $16 level China backs off soymeal bean ration Winter Wheat Tour China & corn purchases *Box beef & Carlot pork purchases
5-17-21 Wheat trade & the weather Corn exports with China & Mexico Should we get an ethanol boost? KS Railway & Canada purchase Cattle weights coming down ASF & China
5-14-21 Soybeans are seeing some replants in the ECB I-40 Bridge update WASDE report jumped to the back seat Struggle continued into a Friday for livestock
5-13-21 • The writing on the wall with how Monday corn traded • Selling the ag off is underway • WASDE didn’t have anything in there we weren’t looking for • Outside market trade • We did see corn & cattle rally off the day’s lows • Extreme difficult market to be a part of. • I-40 bridge closure
5-11-21 WASDE Report out tomorrow Uptrend in the markets Planning for where we are going Grain markets reaction from livestock
5-7-21 • Corn & beans end the week in positive • Beans pulled the corn & wheat along • Is wheat cheap? • Brazil’s corn crop-update on crop
5-5-21 • Rain is spotty • New corn numbers for Brazil • Wheat market continues to rise • Inflation the big factor • Difference dynamics with cattle & hogs • June Hog futures higher than June Cattle futures on Tuesday • Labor & Saturday kills • World is a better place now than a year ago
5-4-21 Struggle is real in the livestock trade How much more can this industry take? Will Mother's Day be factored into the beef movement? Coming out of the pandemic Commodity super cycle Turn around Tuesday Could we see a grain shortage come U.S. harvest time? Wheat market thoughts
5-3-21 What are the items that the market is the most concerned about? Why is the Safriha Corn crop such a concern this year? How does the US weather look overall? Are our export inspections doing okay? How are exports sales doing? Is the corn demand for ethanol holding up okay? What do you think basis levels will do going forward?
4-30-21 • Obscene volatility • We need to think factors including committing those bushels • What do late payments mean to the market trade (not from farmers) • Accumulators in the grain trade • Spread risks going into this growing season • Short a future call in your account-what next?
4-29-21 • Brazilian Real • Time for a grain market pause • Outperforming moves in rice & Mpls wheat • Weather, planting • South America is priced in • Big crop pressure in the U.S. • Cattle suffer from high feed prices • Hogs are topping • Dairy & feed prices
4-28-21 • Fundamentals haven’t changed over the past couple of days for grains • What are the fundamentals at the moment? • New limits start next week • Weather in Brazil heart of pollination is coming up
4-27-21 • Moves in the grains-what should we be doing • Planting underway • First notice day on Friday • Brazil is under some big struggles its not good for corn • Struggles in the cattle market
4-26-21 Cattle saw a huge kill last week. Market struggle was softening cash market Cattle & cost of gain Are we going to see a sell off before things get better Hogs came roaring back Cash hogs strong Is the hog market toppy? Window is closing on the South American corn crop Our growing corn belt weather...rain and lack thereof Funds have a long position
4-23-21 • Soybeans turned themselves around headed into the weekend • Wheat-dry, cold, tight supplies all taking its toll • Brazil dropping its ban on beans, meal & corn • Demand for food is pent up • Demand for cattle & hogs
4-22-21 • Limit up grain trade • How is the second crop going for South America…pressure on Brazil • Frozen wheat in KS • Ethanol/Bio-diesel both here in the U.S. & Brazil • Struggle continues on the livestock side of the trade
4-21-21
• Update on South America corn crop • Colder temps this past week • Red hot oil market • Alternative feed guidelines with China • How much is corn hitting the cattle market? • How much wheat is being feed as a feed source?
4-20-21 • Seasonal charts • Mixed risk on in the grains • 6 week lows were seen in the dollar • Should we be watching the Asian market closer? • Positioning in hogs & cattle • Should livestock be nervous on the grain prices?
4-19-21 • Soybeans saw some higher numbers • Beans is giving a good representation of what the long-term feel is for the market • Short term vs. long • Downtrend in the dollar • Some Senators trying to get ethanol into the infrastructure plan • Brazilian weather is the bigger picture then the cold in the Midwest right now • Rally in the hogs
4-16-21 • What is going on with the May beans • Recent weather models…has wheat factored in this yet? • Outside market influence • Crops in Brazil…what are you hearing on conditions for corn • Pretty dyer situation right now with weather…no normal flow right now • Will the crop be slowly reduced week by week? • Demand is good right now for corn, but the what if has to be factored in • Really bullish like a dog with flees… • Packer’s influence
4-15-21 • Bean planting underway • Worst week of exports we have seen in awhile • Is there a correction coming for grains? • Wheat has been a follow through • Weather in South America • Cash cattle starting to rebound • Cattle can it hold the correction? • Max demand time is upon us • Can feeders push for higher cash?
4-14-21 • Bigger than expected sell off • Some chart damage taking place • Is there a struggle in this cattle trade with strength in the beef market? • Some fund liquidation • Will cash continue to go higher? • What about packer margins? • Can we hope this is the low for the week? • Big basis flip taking place • Outside reversal in the hogs • Higher corn prices…double cropped corn in Brazil • Is China back in the markets? • Are some put options in our future? • Soybeans holding where they should be-sideways • How many acres we really due plant?
4-13-21 Safrina crop in Brazil Soybean harvest in South America ASF & its effects on U.S. & S.A. soybeans Dollar index Could outside markets bleed into the commodities, such as the Dow & COVID
4-12-21 • Tough day in the bean complex • Still coming off of Fridays report, $14.21 is a thorn for May beans • World running out of beans? • Bean planting is underway in some areas • Cattle not starting the week off on the right foot. • Might some lower cattle trade the next few days
4-9-21 How did the corn and soybean numbers look compared to what the market was expecting? What changes were on the US corn numbers? How did the US soybean supply and demand numbers change? Any Surprises on the South American production Numbers? Were there many adjustments in the world demand numbers? What do you think the WASDE report means for prices going forward? Now that the report is out of the way, what will the market focus on? What do you think happens to basis levels and futures spreads going forward?
4-7-21 Beans had a variety of factors working in to the trade today Meat demand that is solid packer margins cash cattle trade saw a $3 higher...is it strong demand & packers working at capacity
4-6-21 • Reaction over the past couple of days from last week’s info • No room for error…how much market pressure could that add? • USDA starts crop progress reports • Crop progress in Brazil • Could cattle be ready to breakout? • Meat movement across the counters • Cash cattle has seen a pickup
4-5-21 Nearby corn had a struggle into the negative Weather in South America Weekly Crop Progress Reports Livestock & Feed prices New Contract highs in cattle
4-2-21 Markets were closed on Good Friday...we take a look at the trade moving forward • Facts about the USDA report • Position yourself going ahead
4-1-21 • Beans gave back a chunk of yesterday’s gain • Markets will trade come Sunday night • Stocks • US/Brazil weather pattern
3-31-21 • USDA report brings limit up trade • Cash trade is a bit better • Boxed beef continues to be strong • Grain report had an effect on the cattle market
3-30-21 • Chance for cash corn to go below $5 • A lot of pressure ahead of tomorrows report • Dollar trade • Speculators liquidating for the first time since August • Dairy is in a good spot right now • Cattle & hogs need watching
3-29-21 • Beans drop again on a Monday • Positioning ahead of Wednesday reports • Zoom meeting, where is the market going…how do they move forward • Dollar trade & strength • Livestock looking at the grains
3-26-21 • Beans took a lower trip again • Good strong exports with China this week • US Dollar & the impact it’s having on the commodities • USDA Acreage report next Wednesday • Seasonality of the grain markets
3-25-21 • Beans had a drop on the trade • Overall, it was a bad close while wheat gets pounded • Chopper trade…we have seen this before • Some positioning going into next week’s report • Higher cash mid-week for cattle • Do cattle have more room to move? • What about the hogs?
3-24-21 • Waiting for next week’s reports • Building some sideways trading ahead of those reports • Beans are taking the lead…tight soy oil stocks • Wheat is the dog • Green grass & cattle • ASF & China
3-23-21 • Transition in outside markets • Moving towards the planting intentions report • Weather in the Midwest & its effects on the grains • Dollar higher • 2012 into 2013 could that effect our 2021 trade? • Can cattle keep the momentum going this week?
3-22-21 How is the corn and soybean export demand holding up with the higher prices? Why is China importing so much corn this year? Is the shipment of corn and soybeans doing okay? How is the safrinha corn crop looking? Why is the Safrinha corn crop getting so much attention? Why is there so much corn in piles and are the coops seeing the writing on the wall about potential dry summer? What do you think basis levels will do going forward?
3-18-21 • General down day • Cattle took a dive • Better cash news on Wednesday then Thursday • Crude oil dropped it all • Grains…China buying spree • Market shifting focus from weather in South America • Deflation day on the grains
3-10-21
• Market attitude from the funds • WASDE reaction continues • Is there confusion over South American numbers? • Warmer weather, wind & maybe some rain • Cattles premium to cash •• Retail movement • Another soft cash week in store • Boxed beef pricing • ASF & China
3-8-21 • A lot of overnight activity • Tuesday report influence • Dollar punches …but has resemblance 2018 • Stimulus how does that help or hurt • Crude oil is it in an important spot?
3-5-21 • New low on the week…closes higher • Roller coaster of a week • Fed uncertainty in the trade…Thursday trade • Makes it tough to market • Livestock moves just as volatile as the grains • Movement of beef • ASF & China
3-4-21 • Beans had a wild ride • Waiting on exports • South American weather • New crop months rising…are we rationing demand for beans • Inputs on corn vs planting beans • Oils pulling everyone along…veggies
3-3-21 Weather problems in South America (social media pics) ASF coming back again Spring & summer weather pic
3-2-21 • Grain markets make a come back • South American bean conditions • Brazil ethanol values • Basis old crop is what they are after • Winter wheat concerns • Cattle will have ups and downs this week
3-1-21
• Money flow in the trade • Outside market influence on the trade • New month of trading next 3 days will set the stage • Weather in South America is a problem • March 15th position limit increase • More talk of ASF in China • What will happen with our pork exports? • Foodservices are coming back on line
2-26-21 • Grain markets still reacting to weather in South America • March has first notice day • Ethanol market could start to rebound • Quiet on the export front • How are livestock reacting to grain prices?
2-25-21 • Emotion of some of the net reduction in the sales • Market had some shifts at the beginning of the trade • Cancelations & the fundamentals • Weather uncertainties with the GFS & European models • Dollar index…is there a head & shoulder top? • Energy markets…year later
2-24-21 • Pumping more money into the commodities • Corn & Beans increase due to weather in South America • Demand for U.S. Wheat • Today’s ethanol report • Cattle trying to get back to normal post artic blast
2-23-21 • Crazy moves in the beans • Corn started out strong, but ended weak • Weather in South America models are not agreeing • Worries about the Brazil bean crop • Livestock saw some struggles
2-22-21 • Today’s recovery • What does that all mean? • Spread action in the grains • Retail for cattle • Cattle on Feed report of Friday • What’s going on in the hogs-nice positive feel
2-19-21 • Beans tried to hold together in the trade today • Corn has struggled • Killing time is the market feel • Wheat market is like a pendulum • Ag Outlook forum • Cattle could see some box beef cutouts peak this week • Weather concerns for livestock trade?
2-18-21 What did you think of the USDA Ag Outlook acres for corn and soybeans? How did the Outlook numbers compare to USDA’s baseline acre numbers from November? Do you think there will be much of a change in corn, beans, and wheat acres overall? Will CRP acres affect corn, beans, and wheat acres? How do you see prevent plant acres impacting the acreage mix? Do double crop bean acres vary much from year to year? How many acre changes in corn and soybean acres does it take to keep our ending stocks unchanged from the 2020 to 2021 crop years?
Arlan Suderman opens his vast portfolio of knowledge and experience as it applies to how the markets are being impacted by the artic blast.
2-16-21 • Strong day in the grain markets • Wheat continues to have some concerns due to the weather • Corn vs. wheat for feed usage • Volatility is the word of the day • Corn & beans acre talk will pick up, is there selling opportunity • Cattle is the weather short term struggle or long term positive? • Grain will have a strong hold on feeder cattle in the weeks to come • Hogs had a good trade day
2-12-21 • Weather had a big play in the livestock • Markets are closed on Monday • Roller coaster trade this week • How much weight can we lose? • A lot of mechanical factors in the trade. • How are the weights on the cattle…are we too heavy? • Working with feeder cattle contract
2-11-21 • Another day of jumpy grains • How far behind is South America? • How is the quality of the grain? • Current crop being planted? • How close is China watching this crop? • What do U.S. producers need to keep an eye on with the S.A. crop?
2-10-21 • Why the grain collapse? • Beans up on Tuesday & a big drop today • All falls back to the money flow • Wheat & weather • Livestock reaction to grain markets
2-9-21 • Feeder cattle had a good trade day • Trigger was somewhat negative grain report • Corn was a driving factor in the livestock trade • Can cattle & cash still go higher? • Are there supply shortages for hogs? • Weather is that a worry? • WASDE Report
2-8-21
• Report out tomorrow • Tight correlations with 2008 on the charts • Cancellations in the month of march would be a possibility from China • Weather & its effects on wheat
2-1-21 Up and down day on the markets New crop beans remain strong Huge exports last week We are not the cheapest grain in town Basis remains unchanged Ethanol margins remain poor Any reaction to the January Cattle Inventory Report?
1-29-21 • Cattle market sees a demand driven market • How is supply looking • Reading restaurants are starting to open up • Retail demand is amazing-packers having more money to spend • End of month 16/18 have been lower • Stock market collapse • Hogs saw a big week-finally off its “tail” • Big export business to China • 230 million bushels of corn just this week to China • Exports off the charts • Bean see a bit of drag with harvest in Brazil
1-28-21 • Market shift underway • Money flow & the dollar • Could we see a dollar ralley? • So the chance of follow the leader in the markets might be gone for awhile • China is buying more U.S. Grains • Not quite there for heard liquidation • Dairy & livestock helped by Government
1-27-21 • Pull back today in the grains • How much is the outside markets influencing? • Money making • China comes back for more soybeans • Inflationary risks still ahead • New strain of ASF in China • Struggle starting in the cattle complex
1-26-21 • A second day of higher grains • South America where are they at production wise • How do we compare with the contract high of last week? • Where are we currently at? • Basis talk • What happened to the funds last week & how did they participate?
1-25-21
• Soybeans pulled themselves up into a strong trade • Ethanol margins remain poor • South American forecast • Can the hogs continue the positive trade this week? • Snow could have more of an impact of the market’s tomorrow
1/22/21 • Summed up in one word YUCK • Rains in South America • Lack of rains here in the U.S. • Beans back to pre-report prices • Basis to remain unchanged-short term • Cattle welcomed lower corn
1-20-21 • Why the down markets the past two days? • What is the takeaway? • What’s going on in SA weather & their crops • Latest with wheat, but they are pulled down by corn & beans • Are there more export taxes being talked about? • Money supply in the long term • Cattle futures disappointed in Texas trade • Hogs pushed some green on the screen
1-19-21 • Input cost worries? • Tough day in the grains with lower prices • Huge news week in the U.S. & globally • With all this outside influence how is that effecting our markets • What goes up has to come down once & awhile • Mixed livestock cattle trade • Lower hogs
1-15-21 • Crop report • Trying to find levels to ration • South American weather • Harvest progress in South America • Russia trying to slow down quotas • Livestock structure is changing due to high prices grain • Contract highs on the livestock • Markets are closed Monday…but the rest of the world is trading
1-14-21
• How did today’s trade surprise? • Strong farmer selling…lines at the elevators • How has the basis changed in the past couple of days? • Could we continue to go up? • South American weather • Ethanol demand? • Are the grain markets overbought? • Cattle…where are things at & why not a better run?
1-13-21 • Return of the emotions of the markets yesterday • Wheat still dealing with Russia • Is there a big reversal in the weather pattern at the end of this month for South America? • USDA numbers pretty close to StoneX numbers • Sept 1 corn stalk numbers were adjusted as well this week • Higher corn-how have cattle been reacting?
1-12-21 • WASDE Report • How did the USDA get to those USDA numbers? • What will the overnight & Wednesday trade be like? • Corn/Bean/Wheat info • How will livestock continue to react?
1-11-21 • Report heading into tomorrow • Reason for the pullback in the grains today • What could they tell us? • Ethanol margins remain soft • Basis price • Missouri River levels • Current but slower on the slaughter • COVID-19 vaccines
1-8-21 • Broad overview of the grain markets • Look ahead to the USDA report of Tuesday • One day lower trade this week • Where have we gone in the last month of trade? • Are $14 beans possible? • Wheat has not had a lot of cold weather scares • Lower livestock…did the south sell to soon?
1-7-21
• Grains have had a heck of a run in 2021 • Turn of events to lower numbers shouldn’t be a surprise • The Tuesday report • Weather in South America with issues in Argentina • A look at the Goldman Sachs Index • Ethanol movement • Next 13 days • Feed costs & grain movement
1-6-21 • Nice day in beans • Corn hits $5 • Different dynamics between corn & beans • How is wheat faring • Next Tuesday is a pivotal day. Money flow & momentum
1-5-20 • Cattle market still has the chance to go higher • First full week of trading in ‘21-what’s the feel of the cash • Big outside day on Monday • How does livestock react to higher grains? • Macro markets-how are they playing a role in the trade? • Huge cash feeder movement the next couple of weeks? • Dollar on the trade • Hogs have some money positions moving…how does that effect front month? • Cheep meat at the counter
12-31-20 How have corn and soybean markets done for the week? What were prices one year ago for corn and soybeans? What all has changed in the corn market to get us to these prices? How has the soybean supply and demand changed to get us to these prices? What will the corn and soybean markets be focused on going into 2021? What are some marketing lessons learned from 2020?
12-29-20 • What has the futures done for grains in the last 30 days? • Corn/Beans/KC wheat-why is it up…funds? • Current weather outlook • Fundamentals of new crop
12/28/20 • Holiday doldrum trade • A lot of year end wrap up going on • South America as we get to Jan will see what their weather impact will be • Corn imports with China all-time high • Taiwan approves pork imports with Ractopamine • Update to the dairy industry how has cheese buys effected the trade? • Cattle supply side is bullish
12-24-20 • Higher grains to finish out the trade week • Weather in South America • The need for having reserves once again • Stimulus package • Beef could get expensive going into the new year with stronger profits
12-16-20 • Weather in South America • Worker strikes in Argentina • Ethanol demand…COVID having its effects • How is demand effecting meat • Outlook for Chinese imports in the coming year for meat
12-15-20 • Crush number boosted the soybeans • Holiday trade is setting in • Low volume for the corn • China grows their hog herd • Cutout break...what does this mean going forward? • Not a lot of cattle movement-part December part price?
12-14-20 • Wheat had a huge drop • Some renewed export opportunities for soybeans • Look at country basis • Hogs continue to try to move with no luck • Reminder we are into the December livestock market
12-11-20 What were some of the highlights from the December WASDE report? How does the export demand for corn look? Do you think USDA will increase the corn export demand in future reports? What does export demand for soybeans look like? Why didn’t USDA increase the export demand for soybeans in the December WASDE report? How is the ethanol demand for corn doing? Now that the December WASDE report is out of the way, what will the corn and soybean markets be focused on? How is the best way to determine where prices could be based on the current supply and demand numbers? What are possible prices for corn and soybeans based on the current fundamentals.
12-10-20 • WASDE Report • Weather in South America • Russia’s actions reason for stronger wheat today • Cattle trade • Hogs struggle but upcoming H&P Report
12-8-20 • Markets seeing battle between what we know & what is possible with weather • What is fair price? • WASDE report not heavily weighted on the trade. • Basis • Lower dollar • Will corn deal with more spillover pressure from beans? • CA Lockdown…how does that play into the markets? • Hogs remain rangebound
12-7-20 • What’s going on in DC • WASDE • Weather both US & South America • Consumption gasoline & proteins
12-3-20 • Cattle Complex • Commodities working on their own identity • Second quarter of 2021 will bring some optimism • COVID protein worries • Heavier cattle in the north? How long till we get this all cleaned up? • December expirations & first notice days. • Open interest year over year • Hogs still a packer led market. Range bound for how much longer?
12-2-20 • Weather update on South America • Recovery in wheat catching attention • Illusive $12 beans • Cattle moved on the online exchange • Looking at last COF report how does that effect • COVID shutdowns…ethanol, jobs, proteins
12-1-20 • Interesting movement on deliveries • China & food shortages • New month • History repeating itself month to month • Wheat purchase from China
11-30-20 • Post-Thanksgiving pull back-how long will it last • Restaurants & food consumption with COVID • Dry weather & its effects on wheat • Is China blamed for recent global prices?
11/27/20 1. Recap of the markets for the week. 2. How is the export demand looking for corn and soybeans? 3. Are you concerned about the rumors of China cancelling soybean purchases? 4. How is the ethanol demand for corn looking? 5. How does South American weather look? 6. What potential problems does the drier conditions in South America Produce? 7. Are corn and soybean prices overvalued or undervalued? 8. Do you think the prices of corn and soybeans go higher? 9. What do you think happens to basis levels?
11-20-20 • Didn’t close near the highs that some had thought • Brazilian weather…driving factor overnight… • Will we hit $12 beans? So then what’s after $12? • How much COVID worry is being factored in? • A lot of fund trading in grains • Export sales haven’t been very aggressive
11-19-20 • Cattle risk off covid deal • Rumors about plant closings • Cash market steady • Food service retail issues • Marketing year high on beef exports • Beans impressive • Exports…pretty new into the trading year
11-18-20 • Nice to see some positive markets • Vaccine news once again supportive • COVID & Ethanol demand • Evidence that China is back to buying again • Rains coming to South America & the U.S. • Dryness worries could be pushed into spring • Balance act between grocery store meat hording & restrictions for food service
11-17-20
Wheat market struggles Beans are pulling the corn along Export numbers South American Weather U.S. Basis Is there some pork export possibilities?
11-16-20 • Corn & beans have seen some big jumps in the past couple of weeks • Outside market influence • What do we do with corn at these levels? • What are the basis levels? • Will we see exports start to pick back up? • Political uncertainty
11-13-20 • WASDE • COVID…lock down any market fears • No man’s land right now • Ethanol is there some demand concerns? • Weekly export numbers…not a lot to talk about • Quiet on the export front • South looking for cattle…paying $3-4 higher this week
11-12-20 Funds look like they are the biggest mover in the trade Could be big volumes getting out...with many factors tied in Export sales did not pan out like many had thought Russians are set to sell a bunch of wheat to the world South American weather turns wet
11-11-20 • Some follow through buying for soybeans • Did corn get caught between wheat & beans • Export bids backed off when prices went high • Soybeans still closed higher-what is the potential in the market? • Did anything in the WASDE report surprise you? • South America’s crop…what kind of pressure will we see • China… • April & June cattle made contract highs
11/10/20 discusses how the rally continues in the grain complex with the WASDE report out on Tuesday. Hudson also highlights how USDA increased demand through imports and if China can continue it's strong pace of buying US commodities.
11-9-20 • WASDE Report out tomorrow (11/10) • How was the October WASDE set up? • Corn the highs made & carryout • Outside market influences…NASDAC & DOW • Cattle market & what does a vaccine mean to the proteins • Outlook for the rest of the week
11-6-20 • Lows in the box beef • Feeder cattle chart looks good • Do we hold or sell calves? • Could we see higher cash next week • Hogs moving sideways • Sitting with a lot of supply • COVID continues • WASDE from a livestock perspective • CME Pork cutout contract…will be watched by all Monday
11-5-20 On the other side of the election. How has the dollar been hit by the election? How is all the waiting affecting the trade market? 2012 was the last inflationary area Will ethanol margins remain tight? The Boy that called wolf Workings of the dairy prices Supply demand mismatch on beef demand
11-4-20
• Market is trading gridlock • Ethanol margins moving towards a lower trade? • COVID red flags • Rains slowed some planting in Brazil-but it’s still dry. • Cattle moving north to south • How current is the south vs. north
11-3-20 o Why did the corn and soybean markets pull back so much over the last week and are now higher on election day?
o What is the latest on export demand for corn?
o How is the ethanol demand for corn looking?
o What does the export demand for soybeans look like?
o What do you think will happen to the carry and basis in the soybean market?
o Will South American weather become a bigger issue down the road?
o Any estimates for the WASDE report next week?
11-2-20 • Nervousness heading into election tomorrow • How the markets came back around • Wheat & Crude Oil were part of the turnaround • Globally how are they looking at the trade & dollar ahead of & after Tuesday? • COVID concerns • Can the cash market kick it in gear with the fat cattle? • Is their weight concerns for cattle?
10-30-20 • What a marketing week • Cattle market finishes the week with some green • Everyone is talking about the election with risk off ahead of Tuesday • Should we be locking in some grain for winter? • What if cow/calf not yet marketed this year’s calves • Corn market closing for the week…might want some protection on the downside • How are the commercial spreads going? • Moral on the pork price…some big hogs in the country
10-29-20 Funds risk off Planting is slower in South America Rains in the plains but drought monitor shows dryness continuing Report out next week-talking acres for 2021 Demand vs. risk Any concerns for livestock as more communities pull back
10-28-20 • WHY are grains selling off? • Is it fundamentals or money flow? • Cattle go higher • COVID concerns
10-27-20 • Soybeans saw a quiet trade day & ran out of gas by the close • Will December be able to get to the contract high this week? • Elections still having a hold on the markets • Movement of grain on the rivers • No export announcements • Cattle trade & struggles
10-26-20 • Could there be an increase of dairy cows into the beef market? • Soybeans…a positive feedback loop • Corn has another day of struggles • Dry weather patterns to those in the south, wetter to the north • Look at the cattle on feed report from Friday
10-23-20 • The spreads on the markets • No carry in the market • Basis around the country has been interesting • China & its effects on the markets • Move we saw in cattle this week…what does the chart have to say
10-22-20 Did Thursday's Price action tell us anything? Row crops vs. livestock Debate tonight...how does that set the tone for trade tonight/into tomorrow? Has markets noted weather delays? US & South American Weather Wheat weather issues Struggle continues again with the cattle market Even hogs saw some lower trade.
10-21-20 • Cash market weakness coming out of the north • Are the cattle to big? • What is behind the strength in the soybeans • Will soybean prices continue to grow? • Why are corn prices going up? • Wheat continues to see dryness global • Sum it up its weather & China • Ethanol report out on Wednesday saw production tick lower • Not endorsing one candidate over the other how does Nov 4th play into mkts • Election risks • Could there be an influx of dairy on the cattle market with current milk prices?
10-20-20
• Continuation of the status quo • Many wondering where the stock is in China • Will their buying keep up in the short term? • Harvest progress is moving along quickly • South America forecast is getting better • Black Sea region is still tough • Basis in the country • Is the down trend in the cattle going to turn around? • How is cash holding up? • COF on Friday
10-19-20 • Wheat is the most confusing market right now • Light buyer support for soybeans • Dry weather concerns • Corn isn’t really expensive…yet beans have some good value • Cattle had some struggles in the trade, falling off the cliff today • Make sure you remember what kind of year this is-does that set the stage for 2021 • Does the downtrend in cattle set the tone for cash this week?
10-14-20 • Fundamental news is bullish • Funds position on the December cattle-risk off attitude • Election still has a “hold” on the markets • Why are cash bids so low? • Is the stock market worried about the election? • Seeing a decline in the grade…does that mean we are getting current? • How are weights? • Fund liquidation vs. good fundamentals • Hogs…continue to have export news to China • Tech picture on the hogs looks good • Hogs vs. cattle in the trade • Oct hogs go off the board tomorrow • Farmers selling beans…did it happen to soon? • Grain summary is China. • Harvest clips along
1-13-20 • Warm dry weather could cause some concerns • Market is tenuous at the moment • Election and the effects on the markets. • Could the basis see some pressure this week? • Grain prices & livestock
10-9-20 • WASDE report • Weather in the U.S. & South America • Chinese purchases overnight • Report did more for corn then for beans • Hurricane Delta • Hold beans/corn • Is there a worry that producers sold to soon on the grain? • Weather pattern change to the dryer side
10-8-20 • WASDE Report due out tomorrow • Very dry conditions in Brazil • Wheat pays attention to dryness in the U.S. • A lot of volatility in the trade
10-7-20 • Wheat up big again • All the grains up again • How can we interrupt negative numbers on the deferred contracts? • All of this related to weather globally • We are looking at potential serious weather issues • China, even on holiday, jumped into the markets to make purchases • Does China panic in weather markets both here & in South America • Feeder cattle continue to struggle
10-6-20 • Key technical points on the corn & soybeans • Who will be the next big bean buyer? • Funds are they going to be long? • WASDE on Friday…how does that effect livestock? • Feeder cattle index has had a history of putting in a top in the beginning of October • What should we do with the calves? Do we hold & wait? • Cattle have been stuck in a range-does that make a boring trade? • Boxed beef is the low being put in? • COVID cases picking up does that make livestock nervous?
10-5-20 • Chance for more rain in South America…really not a make or break • WASDE report out on Friday • Crop Progress report • Export sales holding strong • Ethanol has some support taking place • Dollar trade & grains • Cash cattle is hanging in there • Lack of momentum in the feeder cattle • Seeing a lot of cattle coming off grass • Hogs keep pushing to the upside
10-2-20 • Recap the corn and soybean markets for the week. • Why have the markets been so volatile this week? • Did you see any surprises from the quarterly stocks report? • Do you think the smaller stocks were because of more demand or smaller crop? • Is there a way to forecast possible prices based on the information from the quarterly stock’s numbers? • What are possible corn and soybean prices based on the latest information? • How is the weather looking in South America? • What are the factors the corn and soybean markets will be focused on going forward? • What are your thoughts on basis going forward? Sell off combine or hold?
10-1-20
• Exporting ethanol to Brazil…now they are trying to get plants started up • Circle the wagon on the USDA report of Wednesday • Weather in South America & Russia dry patterns picking up • What are the yields looking like? • October 9th crop report • Will China keep buying? Alliances in South America • Livestock showing tighter numbers on cattle • Asia buying in October for the holidays will see what it brings • Hogs see cash on fire…moved up to some levels that could see a top out
9-30-20 There was plenty to talk about coming off of the USDA report that sent corn, soybeans, and wheat sharply higher but also threw a wrench in cattle trade. Arlan is keeping an eye on weather in both South America and the Black Sea Region. He also breaks down cash trade in cattle and why hogs are still trying to sort out their latest report almost a week later.
Arlan Suderman of StoneX joined us for Wednesday's Fontanelle Final Bell. There was plenty to talk about coming off of the USDA report that sent corn, soybeans, and wheat sharply higher but also threw a wrench in cattle trade. Arlan is keeping an eye on weather in both South America and the Black Sea Region. He also breaks down cash trade in cattle and why hogs are still trying to sort out their latest report almost a week later.
9-29-20 • Quarterly grain stocks report out on Wednesday • Yields are coming in better than expected • What do we do with grain coming off the combine? • China is set to go on holiday • Hogs went up fast • Cattle on feed report…chance for more cattle to come off grass faster? • Is some of the markets preparing for what can be said in tonight’s debate? • Nervousness over the next 6-8 weeks • Control what you can control
9-28-20 • Officially entered the pre-election madness which will bring market volatility • We will get more wait & see to sell until this is all over • We are moving into the core weather worry for South America • Winter wheat issues in Russia…any issues here in the states? They are #1 exporter • Dairy update-there is some worries about post-election • Cattle on Feed Report-reaction • Hogs & Pigs Report-reaction
9-25-20 • We can start out with a brief market recap. • Why were the corn and soybean markets down so much this week? • What impact are the funds having on the markets at this time? • How does the weather look in South America? • What Impact do you think the La Nina will have on South American Production? • How is the harvest progress? • What are the yields like so far? • What will the corn and soybean markets be focused on going forward? • Where could the corn and soybean prices be different yields.
9-24-20 • Right in the middle of soybean harvest • Export information on corn & beans • South America...where are they at with their crops • Quarterly stocks report...how does that affect the markets & compare to the October WASDE • US Weather & harvest
• Should the market have seen the drop in the trade? • China’s purchases are starting to focus on the new year…does that mean they are working towards South American purchases? • Dryness in the black sea • Freeze in Argentina’s wheat belt this past week • Quarterly Hogs & Pigs • COF report on Friday
9-22-20 • Change in the tone of the soybean trade…what does that mean for producers • Dollar trade • Equity indices what should we be looking for? • Volatility could set in as we get closer to the election • Where are the funds in soybeans? • The macro economics & how it will have an effect on grains • Double tops…how will that effect the cattle?
9-21-20 • Rough day in the soybeans, but a negative day isn’t a bad thing • China keeps purchasing U.S. beans • Spillover pressure for the wheat from the row crops • Equity markets around the world were falling on a Monday • Cash Cattle prices • Friday COF Report
The Final Bell is a daily interactive wrap-up of what happened each day in the commodity markets. The Rural Radio Network will visit with a wide range of analysts to stay on top of market trends to help farmers and ranchers make informed decisions.
9/16/20 Soybeans and what the potential is for this crop Situation in China includes building hogs & expanding poultry South America planting is underway One in six restaurants failing nationally...the next 6 months do not look good
9-14-20 • Did you see any surprises out of the crop report last Friday? • How did you feel about the corn and soybean yields that NASS report? • What do you think the yields will go show in the October report? • How does the demand for corn look at this time? • What does the soybean demand look like? • RFS denial announcement today • President Trump makes comments E15 using E10 infrastructure • South American weather with planting underway
9-11-20 • Low week on the cash cattle • Some cattle trading at 102-does that mean a turn? • Are people to bearish on the cattle market • Hogs still traded higher at weeks end • Positive boar overseas with ASF • China continues to windrow the hogs, corn & beans • WASDE & Acre report numbers
9-10-20 WASDE Report FSA Acre numbers to be released A big rally in the beans Basis questions for beans & corn Do you haul or store How much yield was lost in the past three weeks? NICE rally in the hogs with a limit up day Cattle bids
9-9-20 Wet weather moving through the midwest 4.00 corn a ways out on the futures but what does that mean for corn WASDE on Friday 3 typhoons hit China the past two weeks with damage to their corn crop. Did you know China doesn't buy corn from Brazil. China continues to buy US beans Reversal in the cattle market restocking beef time lean hog index above $60 first time since May 28th
9-4-20 How have the markets traded for the week? Are the funds still a factor in the markets? What would you say are the main factors the market is focused on? In the WASDE report next week, what do you think are the most important items the market is looking at? What are the yield expectations for the WASDE report? How do you think the yield estimates from NASS will compare to what Profarmer found? What has the rainfall looked like across the Cornbelt for this summer and august.
9-3-20 • Beans…fielding a lot of questions from growers • Weather • Upcoming WASDE Report • Next year’s thoughts • Cattle has been an ugly dog • December hogs…keeps moving patience is paying off
9-2-20
• Production estimates came out on Monday • Inflation aspect of the markets & how the dollar plays into it • South America the planting season starts this month • Will they get rain…South America & the Black Sea Region? • LA Nina is strengthening-what does that mean for winter wheat guys • Winter talking cold but will there be moisture
9-1-20 • Full moon • Higher grains • China in the markets • Wheat saw a strong trade • Crop progress report • Weather concerns for winter wheat & spring wheat • Markets-are they waiting for proof on the harvest numbers? • Bearish feel to the corn-could that be a boost for cattle?
8-31-20 • Cooler weather • Setting crop insurance on HRW • Corn & bean rally • Pull back in the markets today-was that surprise? • Cattle market thought of an ugly day…but finished higher on the feeder cattle • Short term low in place • Box beef lower Friday & Monday-seasonally shouldn’t be surprising • Demand how much more do we have with the college games etc being taken away
8-28-20 • Import tariffs being cut in Brazil • China continues to buy at these price levels • Fed Policy change…could be good for commodities • Any concerns with this dry weather continuing? • Basis in the country with the current weather conditions • Chinese & the politics here in the U.S. • Cash cattle market a disappointment • COVID and lack of protein movement is becoming more sensitive
8-27-20 Where are we going from here? What do we have for a crop size? looking at past yields, what can we learn? Is there a risk premium before harvest South American farmers are getting ready for early planting with fwd. selling big cattle supplies...is the marketing lull there Will China be the big savior in the hogs?
8-26-20 • Hurricane Laura • Lack of rain in the Midwest • Look for another downturn in crop ratings on Monday • Better chance for rain starting Friday • China & its corn & soybean purchases • Bloomberg story on soybeans & China • What happens after the purchases? • Will we see buying after January 1? • Cattle market trade took a hit on the futures today • ASF & China
8-25-20 • Turn around Tuesday on the grains • Corn crop not as good as everyone had hope…market is starting to realize it. • Expect the USDA to start lowering yield estimates. • China keeps buying to make up for loss • Weaker dollar • “Virus” reprising isn’t done yet • Counter-seasonal year in grains can still be expected in 2020 • Are we on the wrong side of the market? • Government buying, government buying, government buying effecting the dairy • Early cash cattle sales coming out of Kansas
8-24-20 • Lock in lower prices…you might be feeding a bit • Weaning calves early…more expense • Need to buy hay • Cattle on feed numbers • Cutouts have been working on almost 13 sessions to the positive • Packer still have the commitment to large strings • Hogs saw some positive trade • Quiet across the board for the most part • Soybeans were looking for another export announcement coming from the weekend • Weekly crop progress report • Dry/hot weather • What happened in the drop for wheat?
8-21-20 • ProFarmer released numbers on Friday afternoon • Some acres have been reduced in corn • How close does ProFarmer numbers run to actual numbers we see at year end • Some acre changes for soybeans • How are charts looking
8-20-20 Crop tour continues as they are in the heart of the damage Producers are getting fed up with year...now drought is picking up price action spreads in corn & beans China/floods Wheat market continues to be the positive
8-19-20
• Did see some spreading in the markets…supported wheat, not corn • China buys more beans… • Bean numbers looked good first ½ of tour…now they are getting into the disaster areas • Will China come in and “empty” our cupboards? • Rebuilding of the livestock industry in China is going to need food • U.S. has big supplies need to market • Basis has held better than we had thought • Impressive cash cattle trade this week • Pork product has stalled out a little bit
8-18-20 • Cattle are acting tired • Deliveries moved • Cash market saw some 107 but not enough to rally. North has seen some light trade • Slaughter level struggles • Feeder cattle acted a bit better • Funds are buying the cattle • Hogs were horrible • Gave back what we had gained on Monday • Worst is over for the hogs • ProFarmer Crop tour…so far, a rosy picture • Markets okay on the grains
8-17-20 • Positive grain numbers to start the week • Purchases this morning from China or Brazil? • Crop update later today • Crop stress is starting to appear around the Midwest • China dealing with weather, sales along with outside influences.
8-14-20 Fall Basis Coming off a crazy week both livestock and grains IA weather/ProFarmer Crop tour Deferred charts for the cattle High cash cattle market
8-13-20 • Market rally • Iowa crop issues from the storm • WASDE • Pro-Farmer crop tour • Mixed market trade for the cattle
8-11-20 • Weather that moved across the Midwest • USDA WASDE on Wednesday • Positioning with the report • ProFarmer Crop Tour • Reaction to the weekly crop progress report • Other currencies vs. the U.S. dollar • Turnaround Tuesday for the cattle • Cash cattle will continue to move higher in the days ahead • Hogs turned lower on a Tuesday
8-10-20 • Weekly Crop Progress Report • Weather • Weekly Exports • China…will buys be cancelled • Wheat traded lower • Center part of Iowa hit hard be weather • USDA Report later this week • Cattle/hogs how has back log caught up • Feeder cattle cash leveled off
8-7-20 This is a week many are ready to put to bed. Reality check is good once and awhile USDA Report next week Not everything isn't negative out there where is the ethanol market at right now don't become a buyer right now Funds still have a sizable short position as it typically does near harvest Are grain guys nervous on lack of protein movement
8-6-20 • Real crop conditions • Latest drought map • When will the markets catch up to the country side on crops • A lot of numbers being tossed around for yield potential • Weekly export numbers strong. • A pull back in the cattle doesn’t come as much of a surprise • Hogs with a mixed trade • Feeder cattle reaching highs we haven’t seen since Feb/early March
8-5-20 • Restrict expanded limits? • Why are markets not reflecting realty with the grain trade? • StoneX on yield information released this week-how are producers reacting? • Dakota Pipeline will not get shutdown while the case is heard-good for grain • Lebanon explosion and the need for grains…port issues due to the explosion • Hog prices are stagnate • Cattle prices continue to trend higher
8-4-20 • Crop progress report • Yield information that wasn’t a big surprise to the trade • Collusion in grains? • China buying more grain as they ramp up hog production • Struggles in the cattle market
8-3-20 • More bullish on cattle then in the past couple of weeks • Cattle coming around • Could be less cattle this fall then compared to previous years • August 5, 2019 $107.80 not far off from where we are today • Weeks…not months to getting caught up. • Cash will grind higher the next couple of weeks • Packers are willing to take on inventory. • COVID & retail trade & exports are amazing. • Hogs on the other hand struggle. Another gut punch to the trade • Pork product not doing well, which makes the cash market struggle • Export hogs are good, just need to get the short term to catch • Grains-we will get another round of crop rating. • We need to shift from supply to demand. • Massive exports to China
7-31-20 • Major export business this week • Battle between good weather and crops • Is there inflationary concern with the dollar? • Record prices in China…how short are they on food? • Little boy that called woof. • Dairy price update
7-29-20 • DC Court of appeals decision Dakota Access Pipeline-removing risk for farmers • Higher crop ratings…some ratings the highest in 10 years • Some export business for wheat out of Kansas City • Hogs see triple digit losses…roller coaster in general for the livestock • Break in product prices. • Cash for cattle sparce • Safety for workers • Fear factor continues to reign
Tensions with U.S. & China BUT we keep seeing export sales to them & unknown Weather has become a non factor at this point for crops Softer ethanol margins Weaker dollar and the wheat market Beans giving up the fight to stay positive Demand for proteins Boxed beef movement
7-23-20 Corn was able to turn higher at the close Beans at & above $9 How much is China's flooding being factored into the markets? Food Inflation China's hungry for proteins
7-22-20 • China & a somber note with the Consultant in Houston • China did and another make purchases of soybeans • Cash trade Chinese buyers looking at corn & wheat • Growing amount of evidence their temp reserve is almost empty • Gasoline consumption took another drop • Restaurants continue to shut down after reopening
7-21-20 • Is corn stuck in a range or can we test contract lows • Beans had some resistance nearing $9 • Long term weather • Cash cattle coming in steady • Consumer demand moving forward • How has boxed beef been affected? • Kids going back to school…will we see the surge in buying • Are the cattle current? Social media dumpster fire • The market complex as a whole do you even want to look at tweets
7-20-20 • Exports have been good • China flooding concerns for their crops • Crop ratings come out this afternoon • Rains will be hit and miss along with the heat • Ethanol demand concerns • Impressive on the cattle market to go from cash to futures premium • Should we have protection going into August • Look at the cattle show list • Triple digit losses in both the cattle & the hogs
Weather & maps causing a lot of talk China demand Cattle having some nice moves Hogs are starting to breakout What do we do now...moving since the latest rally
7-15-20 • Wheat market caught fire • China is rumored to be involved with the wheat, soybeans & maybe a bit of the corn • WHY isn’t corn getting excited about the sales to China • Weather in the U.S. & the Black Sea Region • Outlook for Brazil on corn & soybeans • COVID Vaccine might have helped to lift the cattle market • JBS & COVID concerns • Still have a lot of supplies
7-14-20 • Record Chinese purchases • Corn taking a drop at the close • Crop condition • Second half of the year…what’s in store for us? • Rains… • Moving forward dollar trade • Consumer demand & meat movement • Marketing livestock second ½ of the year
7-13-20 • JBS employees walk off the job on Friday • Decent cash cattle sales last week • More optimism on the cattle • First time in 8 weeks cash is higher than formulated • Boxed beef could see some slipping again this week • Exports not great this time of year anyways for cattle but good for hogs • Deferred cattle are undervalued • Hogs-weights have been coming down on the hogs. • Rained more than many had expected • Weather is taking center stage for corn & beans
7-9-20 • What is the current driving force in the markets? • What role are the funds currently playing in the corn and soybean markets? • How does a weather market normally progress? • What are you expecting for changes in the WASDE report for corn? • Are you expecting much for changes the WASDE report for soybeans?
7-8-20 • Weather is the primary factor and a bigger factor then reports on Friday • Some much-needed rain will hit fields…then watch out here comes the heat • June first to present the U.S. corn belt there were two years that were hotter ’88 & 2012. • Ethanol production continues to increase • Money and coronavirus…deaths per week are at a low • How will COVID continue to effect meat demand
Tuesday the talk centers around livestock markets. The dog day of summers are not only hard on crops, but cattle as well. This could help slow carcass weight gains. There is still plenty of meat to come to the market and the key question is will there be enough demand. The WASDE out later this week could also help shed light on expected meat production in the US.
7-6-20 • Chicago weather • Looking at what the market is looking like…does it look like 2012? • What happened in 2012 with the market? • Can we learn from marketing in 2012 for 2020? • COVID • Feed Demand
7-2-20 Weather Weather and Weather Holiday trade Tuesday report...where do we go from here? Psychology of the producer Fats & feeders had a solid Thursday trade Hog trade
7-1-20 • Mother nature reminds folks of who’s in charge with the weather forecast • USMCA is official today • More perspective of yesterday’s report. • Shortened trade week with markets closing at noon on Thursday • Some heave short positions as you compare 2019->2020 • Demand from China for corn & soybeans • Hog disease that has popped up on the news circuit • China blocking more countries from shipping meat
6-30-20 • USDA report highlights. • Corn & bean crop reports • Crop conditions • Weather update • Trading of the dollar & its
6-29-20 Markets turn around…a correction that wasn’t a Tuesday. USDA report out tomorrow. Will see a quick knee jerk reaction to the report & then the report market reaction will mellow out some. Will June report have more weight than the September report? Will the weather & warmth for first part of July be a market issue? Another pressure point has been COVID-19 & its effects on the markets of soybeans.
A risk off sentiment gripped the market through the end of the week. Splitt looks at outside markets are impacting commodities. Along with how the charts could lend support or negativity to the grains.
6-25-20 Overall feel of the markets How does corn differ from soybeans June 30th report on Tuesday Ethanol Market Overall movement of livestock-politics & livestock
6-24-20 Name change for INTL FC Stone. China & the growing corn deficit, Army worms-is that a concern for China. Where are we at for Phase One with China…a lot of opposite information. Progression of the winter wheat harvest. How are drought areas dealing with harvest? Early Russian harvest is better then expected. Bayer has a deal with Round-Up & dicamba. Hogs & Pigs report out on Thursday. Update on African Swine Fever
Non threatening weather, crop progress report-has some questioning percentage.
Is the issue with China a trade barrier or more of a COVID issue
Livestock…China & Tyson Foods will set a stage for other proteins.
Cold Storage Report. Hogs & Pigs report out on Thursday.
Some rain in the western corn belt. Rains were wide spread across the corn belt. Crop progress out this afternoon. Weekly export report showed some strong numbers for corn, but soft for beans. Livestock, doesn’t have anything outstanding on the cattle on feed report. How is consumer demand going, with weather & restaurants starting to reopen. boxed beef prices averaged the lowest the market's seen since the week of April 11. China and trade deal work-banning poultry from Arkansas & Tyson. Hog market sees week cash
Wheat harvest, July options, many balls in the air with many things being tossed at it over the weekend into the Sunday night trade. China talk let’s get a confirmation before the markets take reaction. Crude oil sees a bit of a rally. Boxed beef has taken another drop…dog days of summer hitting many how does it effect consumer demand. COVID-should we have another shelter place how is that going to effect & the back log of cattle.
How would you describe the current state of the corn market? What does the soybean market look like to you? Why haven’t we got our normal spring bounce? How are exports doing on corn and soybeans? What does the corn demand for ethanol look like? Are we getting many ethanol exports? What will it take for the markets to move higher from here?
6-17-20 How has the feel been for the markets today? Mid-week vibes? How are we looking demand wise from driving to grilling? As more places get back to "normal" some businesses will continue to struggle & that has & will take a toll on the meat industry. Ethanol industry continues to come back online.
Markets had an almost standstill type of feel to it. How do you market in a day like today. There is a move to a weather-related market, as winds pick up & rain has stopped in many areas. Crop Progress report out this afternoon, any surprises expected? Stabilization to the ethanol market. So, IS China back into the market for U.S. beans? The Real has slipped a bit, is there pressure from South America for grain purchases & China? Livestock, just like grains had an uneventful trading day. Feeders did push to some higher money, but not by much. Cash looks to be steady this week, we have a cattle on feed report on Friday. How will that effect the trade? Sue is a bit more price positive to the hog market.
Kent Beadle with AgSurion CHS Hedging talks grains and market fundamentals on a big week for the commodities.
How did the US numbers look in the WASDE report? Was there any surprises in the world numbers in the WASDE report? Will the corn demand for ethanol need to be lowered more down the road? How does the export demand look for corn and soybeans? Do you think the crop is on pace to achieve the trend line yields for corn and soybeans? Will there be much for adjustments in corn and soybean acres down the road? How does the corn and soybean markets look from a technical perspective? What will it take for the markets to move higher from here? How does the weather look to you going forward? What would you do with unsold old and new crop corn and soybeans?
Federal reserve keeps the pedal to the medal and keeps the money flowing which makes the markets happy. Expecting the USDA to cut some global crops tomorrow while increasing others. Feel weather wise is dryer in the Midwest, but Kansas & Nebraska as the dry spots. Crop ratings are still high. South America is dealing with dryness in Argentina. Some planting of winter wheat is underway while harvest continues. Getting slaughter close to year ago levels. Refilling the pipeline. Product prices, how long till the consumer sees the price difference? A lot of product dump in the U.S. as we wait for restaurants to reopen.
Cattle market has some bearish feel to the trade. Nothing exciting in the cash cattle market. Will we see boxed beef continue to drop? What about all the meat that is “sitting around”? Beef lower, cash lower, Latest inquiry from the Justice Department. 60 days yet of muddy waters to get through. Pork exports ALL TIME high. Are we building premium into the back months? Friendly to the grains.
6-8-20 Funds are liquidating during the day trade after liquidating overnight. Buy corn/sell beans is the feel. Weather is the market right. No major signs of drought in the Midwest. Crop progress info out later this afternoon. Southwest Kansas dry but not drought dry. Brazil should be releasing final bean & corn estimates. Shouldn’t be a surprise to see a large number of soybeans & unchanged on the corn. S&D Report comes out on Thursday. Not a lot of replant going on across the U.S. we need the problems to adjust the markets, but we must live in reality. Ethanol margins remain stable.
6-5-20 Corn & Beans finish the week to the positive. Ethanol market remains stable on the week. Wheat has seen the struggles this week. Outside market influences continue to keep hold of the trade. China has our emotions on a string. Boxed beef drops…needs to, to be able to move product. Normally we are talking grilling, a result of boxed beef prices. June hog contract sets the tone for the trade. Export side…China purchasing more hogs.
6-4-20 Higher grains wrap up a Thursday trade. Ethanol margins continue to stabilize while warmer drier weather is starting to factor into the trade. Export sales for the week considered "ok" and the dollar trades lower again. A look at the basis in the country and all the dicamba talk surround the ag industry today.
6/3/20 Markets are trying to push positive. Data is starting to show the economy is bouncing back. More gas purchases. A rebound started in the month of May. Dollar is going down, selling treasuring. All supporting the commodities. NASDAQ is within 1 ½ % of high. Dow Jones up roughly 40% of where it was in March. Exception to all of this is corn as it seems to get shorted. More buying by China of beans. Weather pattern & what we are seeing moving forward. Livestock: Product prices are in a free fall. Price fixing in the poultry industry-how did that effect the livestock markets today?
China/trade/talk is it all getting brushed to the sidelines? Are we becoming numb to the talk? Any surprise from the crop progress report of Monday night? Beans saw some technical movement. Corn has been dead in the water. Wheat market is under some harvest pressure. Why flip the screen…cattle markets go limit down, what is going on in the cattle complex? Boxed beef is starting to fall like a rock. Is there any weight concerns for cattle or hogs? Storm Lake IA pork plant closed due to COVID-19. Outlook for Hogs & Pigs report. How did hogs react to the China talk?
6-1-20 Warmer weather moving in to the Midwest. Lower corn & wheat mixed beans. Ethanol margins remain stable. How much will China and latest ag import halts effect the trade? Does China want more soybeans? Is there worries about Phase One moving forward? How will South America factor in? Marketing year export inspections falling short, no surprise. Any surprises expected in the crop condition reports this afternoon? Is there replanting going on in the eastern corn belt? China is talking of pork cancellations…that will hurt the industry even harder. What will be the incentive to turn the cattle & hog markets around?
Highlight of the day was the wheat market…crop doesn’t look good & the market is finally responded to it. EU wheat isn’t good, U.S. wheat has some struggles. Tension once again with China. Shifting away from planting & focus goes to weather & plant growth. Rains of the past few days will help out the crops with upcoming heat. Bean exports were small, but to China.
How does the corn and soybean markets look to you this time? Are the funds playing much of an impact in the corn and soybean markets at this time? How is the demand for corn in the ethanol industry looking? What does feed demand look like to you? How are corn exports looking? Why is China buying soybeans from Brazil when our soybeans are cheaper? Do you think we have seen a bottom in the corn market? If you have old crop and new crop corn, would you sell here?
Getting a lot of questions about Hong Kong and the assessment & what will happen from that assessment. Will it affect Phase One? Brazil corn on what is being heard. Acre numbers & prevent plant…recent crop progress numbers, no big surprise. Are there some weather worries? Black Sea update with rains & damage. Livestock-where are we at on processing capacity? June cattle moves about the 100-day moving average for the first time in 4 months.
No news was good news from the weekend. No trade issues popping up. Some shorts in the market & not a lot of willing sellers. Scattered rain showers will slow some but welcome rain for others. Some solid weekly exports for the corn but soft for the soybeans. Ethanol…could we be getting back to a new norm with summer driving & ethanol exports could be the wild card? Easier to buy then it was to sell on the livestock. How are numbers from the COF report? Slaughter numbers moving forward. Sam talks about the reason for higher hogs today.
5-22-20 Looking at the frustration of turning the corner on COVID & then a trade war starts picking up. White House puts out 16-page release in regards to China. Will we see counter measures? Is China to be blamed for what is happening globally as we see countries increase pressure on China & China in turn puts tariffs in place. Torpedo’s Taiwan & soybeans. Seasonally tendencies for corn. Heading into a holiday weekend…what tone could we see come Tuesday? Strong bean shipments out of Brazil.
Looking at export numbers released today, weather front moving in bring some much-needed moisture to the western corn belt. Some trade friction with a return to demand. Mike had a report he did looking at China. Is there some retaliation coming from China to countries that question the COVID-19 start? Cattle on Feed report out on Friday. Grocery store with ground beef prices.
Corn received the short end of the spreads. Wheat has had some dry weather issues. The virtual wheat tour is under way in Kansas. How will that effect the way the market trades? Brazil has had some weather, is there a break headed their way in the drought. EU & Black Sea weather…what is the damage? Impact of the CARES act what will that mean for the markets. Update on African Swine Fever.
5-19-20 President Trump spoke to the farmers today. How are his comments going to have an effect on the markets today & in the days to come? Is the world starting to turn against China & will it help to straighten things out? Politics involved muddies the waters. Is there some stabilization happening in the ethanol market? The President also suggested not taking beef from other countries. A quiet day in the cattle market. Boxed beef dropped again on the day. Hogs saw a downtrend for a Tuesday.
Why was the Monday trade so quiet? Is it the calm before the storm? Dow was up, talk of China & trade once is making the news. Is the bans on foreign trade circling back to COVID-19 & China. Cooler temps will that have any effect on the crop progress tonight? Australia gets a tariff put in place on beef from China, China turns around and buys blueberries & barley from the U.S. will this lead to more buys? Higher cattle lower boxed beef. Even though still behind on processing movement more cattle are moving through the plants. Nearby hogs lower dealing with China & taking pork…not still enough to make a dent.
Post virus reopening…crude oil is getting higher; ethanol demand is picking up. Is there a shift in the markets? Potential inflation due to spending? COVID outbreaks at the ports in South America. What does that mean for U.S. exports? Crazy milk market. Seeing some pre-virus prices in come contracts! Lower box beef levels on a Friday.
May contract goes off the board today. Some disappointment in the beans. Weather will continue to be on the back burner. Bean & China…what about the trade talk wants? Cattle had another rough day with hogs being able to hold their own. Thoughts on the movement of boxed beef.
Risk off across the board. Equities under pressure. Did we forget about yesterday’s WASDE report that fast? Global economy is it falling apart? Are we opening to quick? Has a negative tone been set? How is the ethanol market faring? How dry is it in the Western U.S.? Another drop in the cattle market …same battle with what the value of the animals are at the slaughter plants.
Reaction to the WASDE report. Big stocks to use ratio for corn. How will these numbers play out into the rest of the trading week? Significant acres remain unharvested in North Dakota last month, USDA will re-contact producers there in May to gather production data on those acres. We will find those numbers out in June. Ethanol production numbers from today’s report. Only one big number in soybeans & that was the drop in exports. Limit up trade came back to the cattle market for a Tuesday. How much outside influence is factored into the cattle market? Still some positive from the hogs in part from cattle but also cutouts from the hogs.
Chinese buying soybeans. WASDE on Tuesday. Est for 2020 carryout is 3.3 billion could be a new record. Largest corn crop on record. What about the stocks to use ratio? How will ethanol & feed demand fair? What are the soybean numbers looking like? Lower stocks & carryout for wheat. On the flip side livestock took a hit on a Monday for the cattle. Hogs were lower, but not as drastic as the cattle market.
Green on the screen for a Friday in the grains. To keep in perspective, low commodity prices is taking its toll. Change in the week for corn, beans, wheat, cattle & hogs for the week. Demand & exports. Weather, ethanol working towards processing with DDG’s for livestock.
5-7-20 Another limit up day in the livestock…what does that mean for the near term? Relationship between grain & livestock producers in these current times. Will we see $500 Choice boxed beef? We go through these feelings every year with market movements, just this year its escalated feelings. We are socially isolated on a regular day in ag, but as it continues the feels are getting more stressed. China Phase One…where do we sit? WASDE report due out on Tuesday.
This weekend’s freeze, what does this mean for the Midwest? Weather in the Black Sea, Brazil sees less rain opportunities. What kind of summer do we suspect? Don’t forget next Tuesday’s WASDE report looking at the 20-21 marketing year. Cash cattle trade saw some .95 & then 1.10…that helped the limit up trade.
5-5-20 Planting progress. USDA report next week on the 12th. Delivery against the May futures starting to roll in. Will we see some changes to exports, ethanol and what could be on the balance sheet for old crop? Will there be a corn vs. bean war? War with China again? Livestock…rolling positions. Cash prices & box beef movement. So how does Wendy’s/McDonald’s COSTCO/HyVee limiting meat purchases. How is this long/short term going to affect the markets? How do you market your cattle? Weight concerns going into summer?
5-4-20 Big show list as expected…teared market on the cash last week. Boxed beef is over $400 the disparity between producer and packer continues. Will we kill big numbers this week? Social economics will weigh in on the plants…the length this will drag in on the markets. Hogs has just as big of problems as cattle, but they had a $32 rally on the front. Outlook into the weeks ahead. Grains: Non threatening weather for crops. May oats is higher than May corn…last time was the early ‘80s
There is some optimism with the livestock market. Grains didn’t end the week like many had hoped. A lot of little of things added to the trade for the grains. China goes on holiday next week, the big bean purchase of Thursday-did bring some disappointment on Friday. Planting progress has gone well in Nebraska but to the east there has been some issues. Plants at reduced rates still weighing in on the market trade, some higher cash offers, but livestock still backing up.
Has China returned to some buying of U.S. goods? Is there some improvement in the ethanol margins? Corn, beans & cattle bring a positive day. Fastest planting pace in a few years. Will there be a bean vs. corn acre war this year? Trade of the dollar today could that be supportive to the export markets? Live cattle saw higher number while feeders struggled.
Declaration on packing plants. Ethanol & gas reports are out, a bump in gasoline production. South America with crop production & weather in SA & the Black Sea. Global currencies.
Tyson NY Times ad, President Trump to order meat processors to stay open. May delivery, energies in the market trade. Real time livestock issues are weighing in on the grain markets. Lower crop ratings from the NASS in the weekly USDA report. Wheat will be the big player in the next 30 days.
Planting progress…a lot of talk has been corn, is a low in place or are we close? With crude oil drop continuing how is that going to effect ethanol? Could we see a time where funds will not go long? How is all the corn happenings going to effect the bean acres? What kind of pressure could wheat put on these markets (spring wheat). Pressure coming in from South America-how detrimental are these high prices in SA going to affect our grain markets? How is packing industry going to weigh in on the grains? How do we safety wise/health wise how do we make the plants more operational? It’s the people employment strategy of it all. Boxed beef is crazy high…trying to fill the cold storage as the cold storage meat moved to the meat counter.
Is corn going to finds its way into rations with DDGs becoming less and less? Ramifications of a snowball effect. Revisiting delivery on corn & the crude oil futures. These futures are deliverable, basis contracts…options expired today (Friday) for the May contracts. What does history show for corn? There is an ongoing pattern for corn. What should producers be doing while holding their old crop? How about soybeans old & new? Record boxed beef, will that continue into next week?
What is the best way to describe the corn and soybean markets? How would you describe the current situation with Crude Oil? Is gasoline demand starting to improve? What are the major problems that the ethanol industry is having right now? Can ethanol recover much in price without Crude Oil finding a bottom in price? Do you think we are close to finding a bottom in the corn and soybean markets? How should farmers go about marketing their remaining old crop and new crop corn?
Lessons learned from the crude oil market this week. Changed the paradigms & you can’t count on the old rules. COVID-19…don’t know the scope of the demand destruction. Ethanol demand. Positive note is weather issues in the Black Sea, South America & China. China & Phase One…could mean a better second ½ of the year. Increase in ASF.
Stress levels in the markets right now. Will gas prices come down, how does the crude oil trade of yesterday effect the markets going forward. Could there be stabilization in the ethanol market that will affect the corn, livestock & dollar trade? Meal market turn’s around. More South American crops headed to Asia then in year’s past. Packing plants are coming back online.
Crude oil trade was everyone’s talk. What does this mean for our grain’s? Ethanol production-what will happen if we don’t have the market once harvest begins, planting progress. Export inspections didn’t have anything good today. Stimulus money announced on Friday…what does that mean for grains/livestock? More plants are closing due to COVID-19
Another week closer to whatever the new norm will be. Mind sets are starting to change. Tough week was the corn market, folks are getting anxious to get back into the field. Will there be big acres & supplies? How is the basis holding out for corn & beans? How is the ethanol market faring? cattle started to stabilize-there is a long way yet to go. Cash trade on cattle has slowed down. What does all this pricing mean to the consumer as they head to the grocery store? How did cash fair for cattle & hogs?
Corn has a reality of struggles, beans export sales, look at the forecast for beans & a lot of good things could happen, but outside influences will have an effect. Not everyone will have a weather-related market in 2020. Cattle has had a nice bounce off the lows. Is a June low in place? Some assistance for the cattle & hog guys is helping. Struggles within the packing market.
Lower grains, how did the weekly ethanol report factor in? Port disruption talk isn’t not the loading of the ships, unloading the barges that come down the river does take time. No major effects right now. Wheat has dealt with very cold mornings, is there some damage being seen? Will Kansas be the hardest hit? How is COVID effecting the movement of pork & beef. So much talk of food shortages, but the cold storage numbers say something different. Is African Swine Fever still an issue?
Mind boggling is one way to describe the market trade. Looking at the other side, what is yet to come. We know where we are, prices have crashed, now what? What is a realistic outlook going forward? What are the opportunities? Can the livestock & dairy market survive COVID-19…will we need some new marketing tools for the tool box?
Markets tank again on a Monday for the cattle market. Limit down on the live & feeder cattle. JBS closing two plants for two days, plants are slowing down & or going dark. Is the market worried about the shortened cattle kills? Heavy cattle concerns? Positives on the cattle side? Good weekend clearance. Demand for fast food hamburger is crazy. Smithfield closes plant in SD. From pork exports. St. Joe numbers-Brad checked with the USDA on the numbers…186.08 formulated cattle dressed steer 167.89 Was hoping for some life in the grains, some hopefully might be stability in the fuel market. One dry spot in South America
How was the markets reaction after the USDA report? Ethanol still have a stronghold on the market? Short & long term effects on ethanol? Artificial negativity in the market. Russia & OPEC working out “deal”. Future deals. A lot of outside influence on the trade this week. DDGs effects go beyond the grain markets. Cattle market swings to the negative once again.
Mixed to lower grains. USDA report out tomorrow. Ethanol issues continue with POET announcing plant closures, what do current ethanol numbers mean? Cold temperatures next week…does this make the wheat market nervous? South American weather & crop production numbers. Beef sector has been going crazy. Restaurant numbers are out…not pretty
Corn is in the driver’s seat for grains today. S&D report due out on Thursday & markets closed on Friday. WOW…kind of “Normal” trade feel. Poor ethanol margins remain. POET to idle 4 plants. OPEC & Russia…how does that effect the U.S.? Talk about a “Turn Around Tuesday” with limit up on the livestock.
Report week, OPEC week, some green on the screen in beans & wheat, lower corn. Nearby cattle were limit down. How messy is the chart? Energy market will continue to be in the driver’s seat. Corn export inspections saw some strong numbers. How is COVID effecting grain movement in South America & here in the U.S.? Packer plants & COVID? Missing link might be the supply chain now vs. 20 years ago. When will we see cash cattle pick up?
Will cash stay where it is? The difference between the board and cash…not seeing bids from buyers. How will dairy in buyouts going to affect the market? How big will these livestock get waiting to be processed. Overall economy…unemployment numbers keep growing how does beef demand look going forward? How will premium cuts suffer? Do we have to go back to ’08 to look the struggles? Limit down struggles continue in the hog market as well. How does that filter into the grain market? Ethanol & Carbon Dioxide. May WASDE report and old crop balance sheets are talked about. What about new crop balance sheets?
How would you describe corn and soybean markets overall? What did you think of the prospective planting report? Did the Quarterly Stocks report surprise you at all? Oil rallied today because of Trump talking about the possibility of global oil production being reduced. How would you describe the current situation with Oil? What are the major problems that the ethanol industry is having right now? Are there some possible positive factors you are watching right now?
Corn stalk numbers, a new production estimate from Brazil, which brings a drop in soybean estimates. Weather in SA. Ethanol concerns here in the U.S. & S.A. Limit down trade in the cattle & the hogs again today. Aggressive buying of meat has been accomplished & we are seeing a drop in demand.
Planting intentions report, where did the acres go, stocks, ethanol. Is there questioning of the USDA numbers? From end of month, end of quarter and moving into a new month how prices will fair be going into April. Human abilities and the futures. Long calls for the cattle market. Crazy livestock trade, COVID-19 & JBS. Volatility is there for the livestock stronger then we have seen in a long time.
DDgs & the Albion plant closing, ethanol, how long will all this last, will the corn market react. A lot of stuff we haven’t had to deal with before. Planting attentions report out tomorrow. Has it been overlooked? Self-isolation looked forward to for spring planting. Weekly export numbers. Beans have had some positive news to start out the week. South American Ports & COVID-19. Dollar movement how will that effect the trade. Cattle didn’t trade limit down on the day-so that’s a positive. Hogs unfortunately went lower on expanded limits.
What is going on in the cattle market & how do we survive it? Friday finished another limit down day. How do we recover? Recap of the cash markets this week. What is the packers story from their side? Hogs also see a limit down trade. Talk of China recover from COVID-19 they will need the proteins. Drop in the corn market. Energy is pulling the market lower.
Market chatter is still about COVID-19, Wheat bounced backwards today, a breather was expected. Ethanol markets does not feel good. Are we going to see a dump in corn? Will quarterly stocks or planting intentions help the market? Will next week’s reports set the tone? Cattle have been giving back a bit.
It’s an off day in the market trade…except for the wheat market that has been on fire. Corn did have a bounce in recovery. Meat & wheat going hand in hand. Ethanol might have a part in that. Soybeans are confused. The meal market and demand are a big part of it. Aid for farmers coming from DC. Weather concerns in South America.
Light selling in the wheat…how did that effect the corn trade? Oil & ethanol concerns. How soon will we be back to normal? Planting intentions report due out at months end. Could we see increase in unplanted acres? Corn/bean ratio and what are we seeing in the basis? Cattle market on expanded limits, one needs the other. Is Tyson’s announcement effecting the markets?
It was a good market day. Stock market wasn’t the best, Dow down. Double digit increases in soybeans & Chicago/KC wheat. Sue looks at the money leaving the stock market on rallies. Money will find safety. Ag could see a good return on their investment. Packers are offering certain bids…but a bill in the house will focus on bottom prices for cattle to be purchased. Will we see decreased numbers in next cold storage report? Thoughts on the planting intentions report while looking at some new grain movement issues out of South America.
Just when you thought the markets couldn’t get anymore uncertain. Always has had the feel the markets should trade…people need to have the opportunity to sell. Under the surface is the global supply system, ag has had issues with ports not being open, people not being able to get food-food reserves of the past seem to have gone away. The feeling could be a strong behavioral change. Smart Money insider buying currently being seen in the KC wheat, MN wheat, bean oil, lumber and live cattle markets. Class IV milk had some limit up action.
What is the current situation in the corn and soybean markets? Do you think the worst of the Coronavirus is behind us? What could the signal that Coronavirus’s impact on the market is coming to an end? What does it take for the crude oil market to go higher? How concerned are you about the ethanol Industry? Do you think today’s move higher in the markets means we are going higher from here? Do you think the short-term lows are in the corn and soybean markets? How much lower do you think we can go? What are some surprises the could help the corn and soybean market go higher?
Dow drops again. It's hard to ignore what is going on in the ethanol market. BUT there are several positives in the market trade. Rumors that China is buying wheat. Wouldn't take much to flip the balance sheet. DDGs another long term positive. Farmers can lock in some interest rates on their loans, lock in fuel needs, could see a reduction in input costs for this year's crop. Cattle has been something else of late. But there are some encouraging signs coming from the trade. Strong product demand.
FINALLY, some green to the screen for beans. Corn continues lower. Wheat was somewhat higher. Demand destruction for gas & ethanol & what that means for the corn industry. Historic charts for corn & beans will the reports later this month make changes to that? South American harvest, is there a decrease in the numbers? Meat movement, long term outlook for cattle…there is a light at the end of the tunnel.
Another day of limit down trade. What is going to happen to this cattle market…the effects on the cattle producer. Volatility to this market trade today. Why did the markets fail? CME Floor trade closed-did that play a role? Boxed beef was up $12 at noon today. Futures failing…is this getting out of hand. What is the cause? Retail demand is picking up. Friday rumors on plant workers how did that effect the market? Hog cash news is firming. Business & China is there fruit to that talk. Grains had a devastating day. Outside market influence in the trade. Equities creating negativity.
Livestock limit down as it was on expanded limit. Not a lot of proteins moving with cancellations because of Coronavirus. How does the cattle & pork producer try to focus & find the positive? Basis continues for the corn steady. Feed demand will have added pressure to the grains-almost a domino effect. How will the slow down and fuel issues effect the ethanol plants. March planting intentions report outlook.
Tough times right now, from outside market pressure into the grain & livestock markets. CME will halt floor trade after Friday the 13th. Livestock is a bigger issue with the market trade.
Grains continued to go back to the lower…weakness will continue due to no real story to keep it going into the positive. End of March reports. South American Harvest-how is it moving along. Negative impact of the virus and demand. Coronavirus will continue to keep its hold. Livestock Coronavirus vs. ASF
Turn around Tuesday. Will it push into tomorrow? Dow & dollar moved back higher. Crude is also coming back Nothing exciting in the WASDE report. More rains expected in South America. Ethanol demand heading into summer & Coronavirus concerns. Livestock market sees turnaround as well. Hogs may have made a low on the June contract.
Another down day…grains, livestock & stocks. A lot of fear factor being built in. Crude oil continues to fall…explain in relation to corn. March 10th USDA WASDE Report. Soft export market continues. Chicago wheat the only market to see some positive trade numbers. Feeder cattle lock down & struggle …following the equities as they follow what happens in the Coronavirus news. Seen some solid demand in the hogs…but there is a lot of supply out there.
Grains drop again on the day. Beans struggled to finish out the week. A Friday market feel that followed the stock market. Is this going to be the trend going through the November election. Movement of crops in South America. Some talk of lower yields. Livestock…Coronavirus and the cattle market.
Markets looking at twitter talk on spreads and what those spreads mean. Is basis strong. A bounce in corn. End of month report. Stock market. Ethanol demand. Cattle fundamentally bullish with workings to bring more money back to the producer.
How do the corn and soybean markets look to you? Where were the markets last year at this time? Why did the Corona Virus put so much pressure on the markets? Do you think we have seen the worst of the Corona Virus? What is the market going to be focused on going forward?
Corona Virus? March Quarterly Stocks and Prospective Planting at the end of March Spring Weather forecasts (Prevent Plant) Corn – Exports and Ethanol Demand Soybeans – Export Demand
How does the US weather look over the next couple of months? How much prevent plant do you think there will be? How does the corn export demand look? How does the ethanol demand look currently?
Brian Splitt, Ag Market.Net, looks at the factors behind why the grains were shielded from the sell off of the outside markets. Splitt also looks at the current market cycle and pattern just ahead of the WASDE report. It may be a good idea to market grain just ahead of the report.
Cornavirus…that’s the big thing effecting markets. Corn market & producer pricing. They need to make that decision TODAY with first notice day tomorrow. Same thing happened in September & December. Cash Pressure. Fear of demand is what’s killing the livestock today. The paring of the stock market and the cattle market. Oversupply hogs…waiting for China to buy hogs. Interconnectivity throughout the world.
Thoughts on the cattle market. Geo Political & Cornavirus keeping a hold of the markets. How the politics and global work together. Feeder cattle stabilize-could we have seen a stronger rally. Liking the hogs. Grains stabilize rally could be coming. Argentina raised their export taxes on soybeans. Combine of corn still going on. Stock market. There is an end to the chunk of news…but not soon enough
Shawn Hackett, Hackett Financial Advisers, dives into the coronavirus pandemic and how, historically, pandemics have impacted the grain and livestock markets.
Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics, dives into what drove markets sharply lower to open the week and what he considers "bright spots" despite today's trading activity.
Another low day in the markets, is the aid payment talk trigger some worries in the market place? Waiting for trade deals to kick. Bean funds are short going into the weekend. Outlook forum brought no surprises. Now what? Ethanol margins flat, weather market heading into spring planting. Dollar vs. real. Livestock…hogs continue on a roller coaster-a lot of production out there, but no place to go globally. Long term effects on the hog markets.
What are the drivers of the markets at this time? What do you think the USDA Outlook Forum is going to say? Why is there such a big difference on opinions on market direction? Any updates on the Phase One Trade deal? How does the demand from the ethanol industry look?
Troy: Higher corn & wheat, lower soybeans after a 3 day weekend. Coronavirus fund positions & markets. Australia is short on wheat. Eric-Cattle & demand. Australia and export movement.
Demand vs. Supply. Coronavirus continues. THIS WEEK'S WEATHER IN THE HARD RED WHEAT BELT REMAINING DROUGHT-STRICKEN FOR WESTERN & WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS, THE ACREAGE REPORT TODAY BEING UPDATED, & THE FRENCH WHEAT CROP CONDITIONS, WHEAT REMAINS OUR MAJOR PRICE-LEADER FOR FUNDAMENTALLY-RELATED/CURRENCY-RELATED SHORT-COVERING A bright spot is the cattle market.
Markets continue to narrow. Grains trade lower on a Thursday. Commitments are down 26% from a year ago on corn. Will we be able to move forward? Beans were able to test $9.00. Coronavirus continues to raise issues, and avian bird flu continues to be an issue. More spreading from hogs to cattle. Hogs might have seen a new low. Markets right now importing into China causing problems.
Turn around on the grains today. Coronavirus continues to be the headline that is shaping the markets. China has taken resources away from African Swine Fever to control Coronavirus. Boots on the ground gives us a first hand look. What does this mean for Phase One? South American Weather. How is harvest going? Delay of planting in the U.S.
Heather Ramsey, The ARC Group, joins the Fontanelle Final Bell for Tuesday 2/11. Ramsey breaks down the USDA Stocks and WASDE reports as to why neutral may have been okay for the market. Ramsey also looks at the marketing opportunities currently available to farmers.
Darin Fessler, Lakefront Futures, was Monday's guest on the "Final Bell". He previews Tuesday's USDA report and discusses where he's at with hogs and cattle.
Coronavirus continues to be talked about. Markets are just not sure what to do at this time, in this phase with the Central Banks continue to print money & China in continued lock down. More time is needed to gain clarity on how long the demand side hiatus will last. Markets will continue to struggle. Any good news could make the markets take off-but any stagnate bad news will have some ill effects. New Zealand weather-could have an effect on our milk prices here in the United States. Shawn shares his thoughts on how hogs are some of the hardest hit when a pandemic starts, but they are the first to reverse when things start to turn around. Australian drought starting to see some rains-that will play in the cattle markets.
Cattle didn't hold the open that started the day. Cash market has a chance to be better. Walmart raising beef & slaughter...not expected to drive near term change to the cattle industry. Hogs see failure once again with bird flu added to the list. Grains closed higher...should be worth something. China asking for patience with Phase One implementation. Basis continues to hold strong. Stock market takes a jump.
The Good the Bad the Ugly. Bloomberg article on China asking for more time. The Brazilian Real continues to be cheap. A lot of uncertainty hanging out there in the markets, more than what we have seen in years past. declining supply of cattle.
Coronavirus continues to have its effects on the markets. Could we see some stimulation in the market from the world banks? Weakness in the dollar-soon see a turn around? Real has also been cheaper than our dollar. Will that continue to hinder exports. South American harvest & weather. This is not a forever deal…the demand we have lost in the nearby will come back multiplied. Struggles in the dairy, correction in the prices isn’t over yet. Hog has their own struggles this week.
Grains struggled in the Thursday trade. Overall commodity weakens. World Health Organization continues to talk about the Corona Virus. The chatter has been the beans & how hard they were hit. Wheat performance though is somewhat encouraging-even though we saw negative numbers. Fear traded markets. Brazil real & how it is affecting our export opportunities in the U.S. ASF & the vaccine. Limit down hogs. Cattle markets had an “okay” type of day.
Lower grains again today. Reaction to the USMCA signing on the U.S. side. Vaccine for ASF. Corona virus-is it impacting the markets? Delay of Phase One because of it in China. How much is fear worked in. South America production could bring some higher results. Cattle tried to push higher, but unable to move.
Higher corn, lower beans & wheat. Corona Virus…what effects will it have on the markets. Real and its marketing tools compared to us. Chinese New Year. How is that playing a tole on the markets? Livestock-no early cash trade. Struggle in the markets yesterday. USMCA, cash cattle, stock markets…all playing in to the market trade.
Lower grain trade to finish out the week. Looking at marketing in 2020, to be able to focus on profitability vs. prices in the markets trade. Are there some fears as they watch impeachment & global market trade talk? Are there concerns about corn-what about the top in October & how does that relate to today’s trade. Soybean trade as well. Heating oil & fuel needs this winter. Chinese New Year
Factors still moving the markets include China as we move 7 days into that 30 day agreement. Not a lot of movement talked about to this point. Kind of leaves us on the fence & following technical. Wheat continues to trek higher until today-but why is it going higher. Current status of South American weather & crop progress. Livestock market…Chinese holiday-sickness…people moving through the country. ASF-is there concern with the week long holiday coming up for China?
Quiet start with the livestock. Tone of the beef is just okay…macro’s have Brad concerned just a bit. Cash cattle. Average weights are disturbing. Year on year comparisons come in higher. Is the market tired for the cattle? Hogs continue to torment. New virus in China-how is that going to affect the markets & heading into the Chinese New Year Celebration. Beans took it in the shorts-is it weather in South America, corn did better but problems talked about it in a variety including wheat.
Crazy week of reports. From the January 10th report, Phase One, USMCA…but still beans had a rough week. Shows volatility & one needs to be prepared. Last 60 days we have been in a tight range. Ethanol margins remain tight…China even mentioned ethanol in Phase One. South American weather & current harvest. Hogs could see the boost from the trade deals. There is money to be made in the cattle market right now.
Why have the markets been down so much since the phase one trade deal came out? What are some of the details of the trade deal that you found encouraging? Are there parts of the trade deal that concern you? What does the market focus on now going forward? How does the corn export demand look? How does the corn ethanol demand look? What does it take to turn the market back higher?
Phase One is signed. What is the market direction for the next few months pushing through winter. Beyond the trade deal USMCA would be the next big push. Brazil real vs. U.S. dollar. We will have better demand going into 2020, but don't expect it first quarter. Feeder cattle charts. Could we see stabilization in the hog market? livestock demand
Tomorrow's signing day with China. A lot of stories about what be included. WTO guidelines. Chinese imports. Bird flu update for China. Turkey's in Northern Hungary as well. We continue to see tight ethanol supplies. Weather updates for South America. Corn harvest 2% done in Brazil. Global wheat crop. Livestock market & what China's hog market looks like. Some short term technical on cattle.
Higher corn, lower beans & wheat. Quiet day in the market trade. China needs help…food for both people & livestock. Will we see any fireworks from Wednesday’s signing? Bird flu in China with swans. Ethanol margins remain tights. Weekly export numbers on the softer side. Why are we seeing lower numbers in the livestock? Chinese New Year Celebrations.
USDA WASDE Report. Nothing friendly on the grain report. Unicorn type of day! Brad explains. How do the basis numbers look? Ethanol/DDG’s & China. Cattle prices were higher with the hopes that the cash would see some higher Friday trade numbers. Macro’s for the cattle not great. Middle of a big fund role. Negative side of the market is the cut-out value-cutting back on Saturday kills. No real threat in the weather-does that make you nervous? Hogs still caught in the same trading range.
Pre-Report trade. If the wheat is leading higher on the S&D Report the dollar will have a reaction. Trade might not be worried about the corn. bullish surprise in the report though could be the corn, seeing where we are at in harvest. Phase Two comes after elections. Phase one is on track for January 15th. Iran still being talked about. World Supply Demands with South America. Winter seeding for the wheat brought to the front of the classroom. USMCA. Wall Street Journal & the tide turning. Cattle market & waiting for the cash continues to be on the quiet side.
China...they are scrapping their ethanol program & what does that mean? GCI China talks of lifting duties on DDG's. Ethanol mandate by 2020, was never bought into. Due to weather, the USDA report delayed until Friday along with the WASDE report. Political talk making national news, is the current issues with Iran having any effect on the markets? ASF hits again in Bulgaria. Consolidation in the cattle as they wait for the cash to fully develop.
Blahh negativity markets. Seems to be the tone for the trade this week. A lot of stock being put into this trade deal. January report…different from last year when we had no report. USMCA moving forward in the Senate. Weather in South America. Some spread activity in cattle, nothing like what we saw in yesterday’s trade. Hog market looking at China going into deep freeze for pork to feed people. Impossible Foods wanting to move into the “Pork” market & offer to Asia.
Chinese trade deal waiting…part of the reason for the bean drop. Running out of steam in the markets. Buy the rumor sell the facts is the feel to the trade. Have we run the market up to much? Export numbers. Market for now is going to say its traded Phase One. Weather in South America is pretty good. Geo-political, bombings in Iran its effects on Wall Street & the dollar. Dairy side of the market has made a top. How long will the correction continue? Cattle market on the holiday slowdown. Limit down trade on the hogs.
Looking at next weeks USDA report due out January 10. Fresh money flowing into the market, is there limit to the downside? Basis will continue strong but how will that compete with the ethanol market. China signing phase one January 15th. China in the market for more ethanol. Cattle started 2020 in the negative. Thoughts on the cattle weights with above temperatures.
Last trading day of 2019. A look back & a look forward in both the grain & livestock. Some try for profits to wrap up the trading year, but a quiet final trading day for 2019. A signing date of January 15th with China. ASF will continue to be a story in 2020.
Mixed market trade. Slow down ahead of the last trading day of 2019. Ethanol market…DDG’s & cattle. Thoughts on going into 2020 & the first quarter. Wheat & Phase One…it seems to be forgotten about with all the trade talks. Looking at South American crop & world numbers.
End of year is near. Today the markets focused on the KC Wheat-they are at the top. Is this long term? South American production on beans-FINALLY the markets are starting to talk about it. Brazilian farmers mind set. Generational changes for Brazil. What will you be seeing on your trip? How do we get that mind set focus here? Quiet export markets…comes as no surprise with the end of year/trade deals being worked out.
How would you summarize the corn and soybean markets for 2019? What is currently impacting the corn and soybean markets? Trend following funds are short corn and soybean. Palm Oil Possible Trade Deal with China South American Weather Why are the funds still short the corn and soybean markets? How is Palm Oil impacting the soybean market? What is the latest on Trade Deal with China? How does South American weather look? What will marketing corn and soybeans be like in 2020?
Holiday shortened week. A look back at 2019 & damage done to the market trade Top factors going into 2020
Higher grain markets. Holiday markets. Some good China news coming our way. Is it good faith on a bigger deal? Cattle on Feed on Friday. Cattle weight concerns.
Looking at the charts for corn & soybeans along with wheat. What are we dealing with & what do we need to get to the next level higher? What is the support level? January 10th report. Sept & December contracts for corn where at or near contract lows for first notice day. Are we on another cycle higher? Buy the rumor sell the fact will be working into the markets. Planting intentions isn’t that far off. What is the outlook?
Grains saw a bounce in the corn, China deal still needs to be inked out. South America has good weather in Brazil-putting added pressure to bean demand, Argentina has been hot & dry. Soybeans have had some oversold levels. Bullish to the beans. Basis to remain strong going into 2020. COF report out on Friday & cash cattle thoughts.
China & the status of the agreement & 50-billion-dollar trade talk. USMCA vote. Weather in South America. Timing of Chinese purchases…does it include ethanol? How much of the rally a rally vs. a money flow? Holiday feel set into the markets. Winter wheat concerns looking at some dryer weather. Cattle & hog fundamentals. Waiting for cash cattle. Is cattle weights a concern?
U.S. dollar vs. the real. The Feds & money being printed-how does this all relate to agriculture? Is there some upside volatility to the ag markets? Has the value of how ag markets looked at changed? Is Ag the safe haven? Argentina’s Economics Minister to propose increasing corn & wheat export taxes. Latest on dairy with a USMCA vote headed our way. Quiet trade to continue for the cash cattle.
Cattle saw a massive amount of fund buying on Friday. Interesting that beef had the biggest reaction to the news about China. Already some longs going into Friday. Fundamentals of the cattle-weights are higher than a year ago. Producer is asking for higher money. Could we see some higher money in this last full trading week of 2019? Is there some bullish feelings in cattle & are hogs too cheap? Corn to see a rally? Beans take a jump in the markets. Wheat is the easiest most exportable item. Some general comments about China.
China-Phase One Deal. Details are pretty quiet. Cattle was the market that took this all in as there has been a lot of people that have been short. Holiday trade is in place. Beans rallied but didn’t have the full fireworks many had hoped for. Corn turning positive.
Big news coming out that the US and China may have a deal awaiting President Trump's signature. Peterson looks at how this unfolding trade news may impact the market going forward. Peterson also looks at current supply demand forces on the market.
Lower grains in the trade. Big trade factors today include the FEDS Statement, Brexit & China tariff deadline. What will happen between now & Sunday with China & how will the markets continue to watch. Brazilian weather for the most part is pretty good. Argentina has some heat, but showers are possible. Livestock ASF, getting reports of an uptick in breakouts in China-not official but being talked about on the ground.
USMCA. Higher grain numbers…did the Chinese numbers get faded out? WASDE report. Chinese production numbers corn & wheat were higher. Final USDA Crop Progress report for 2019. Dollar traded lower. Livestock…USDA cut in exports for beef & pork. Chinese hog heard is starting to rebuild. Cattle markets & weights.
USMCA Chatter. Spitting of weather across the Midwest. Soybeans sharply higher-funds are short. Trade deal talks of last week makes some worried that a deal with China might not be done. Extended crop reports…crop report out tomorrow-can we expect any surprises? Stats Canada Vomitoxin issues, test weight issues on corn. South America weather. Price action on the livestock shows we haven’t learned a lot on the trade issues.
Winter doldrums effecting the markets, trade war has no real incentives from China. Crop size & the USDA reports. Basis & its pressure on the elevators. South American Crop.
Arlan Suderman, INTL FC Stone, discusses all three major grains starting with the bushels still in the field as 2019 moves into it's twilight. Suderman also touches on what current diplomatic relations between the US and China looks like currently.
Covering basis & cash…worries about giving up ownership at year’s end. Looking into 2020 & how to market going into the new year. Crop progress report. Ethanol Markets…corn isn’t there so how you move & keep the bottom line. Will South America put pressure on us in 2020. Effects on the dollar for our grain trade.
Another solid week on the cash cattle. Could there be a correction headed our way? Any holiday pressure that might work into. How are cattle weights. Holcomb KS plant to start back up this week. How do you think the market react? Funds are long. Some red flags popping up. Hogs…way to cheap but China is playing a role in that. 10% of corn crop still in the field. Basis in corn market. China on again off again. December 15th…will we see changes before then? Mixed grain markets.
Markets closed early on Friday for the Thanksgiving holiday. This year’s crop outcome-what will be harvested is about there-this could move the markets higher as reality sets in that all the crop won’t be out before 2020. How will this change the basis? Cash will win in the end. South American production-any issues heading into December. December 15th deadline looming with China-will they just continue to buy what they need? Corn exports saw some improvements this past week. Getting a final spike trade in the dairy industry. Still seeing some Chinese purchases for milk powder. Weeks snowstorms and upcoming weekend weather be of concern to the feeder cattle market?
Lower close headed into the holiday. Winter weather slows harvest once again & what are the implications. South American weather & crop update. Driest soybean in the past 4 decades but the crops look great. Trade talks, USMCA-8 days left on the schedule. If there is a will there is a way. China talks. Strong cash basis for corn & beans-some post-harvest feels. 124 million bushels of corn in NE…a lot more left as you head north. Exports tighten in Brazil. USDA put out a notice for export sales reporting of livestock. ASF.
How do the corn and soybean markets currently look? Is the slow harvest pace having an impact on the markets? Does the market care if a Trade deal is done with China Do you think a trade deal with China will get done before the next round of Tariffs on December 15th? What do you hear coming out of the BRICS meeting a couple of weeks ago in Brazil? How does South American Weather look? How does corn demand look? How does soybean Demand look? Where do you think the market goes from here?
Darin Fessler, Lakefront Futures and Options, dives into the grain trade with opening discussion on the current Chicago wheat bull. Then Fessler looks at how the recent Hong Kong elections may put pressure on China to work on the Phase One Trade Deal with the US. Fessler ends with a look at how USDA is currently calculating feed use in the US.
Lower corn & beans for a Friday. Pre-holiday works going on. Look at the basis in the country. Ethanol is making some profits. Dry down late harvest issues. Export markets for both grain & livestock. Feeder cattle lead the way lower. Boxes took a drop which didn’t help the market.
Corn continues to see slop progress in harvest with over 3 billion bushels still out. Beans have been in a difficult spot, many still question the USDA reports. Hong Kong-is this causing a slow down in getting a trade agreement in place. South America supplies are running small. Cattle futures see a lower trade & ASF spread & the market effects.
Hong Kong, Bill in the Senate…how does that effect China Trade. Talks 3 b corn is still in the field, South American weather helping the crops. USDA to continue crop progress reports into the near future. Spread of ASF continues in China & beyond. The need for food to feed those in China
Nice to have green on the screen even with bad trade news. Weekly crop progress report. Kansas Wheat condition. the corn market analysis going into next week & beyond. Lower U.S. dollar, Global plantings. Propane shortages continue with the need for harvest dry down. Thoughts of exports. Cattle is hitting some lofty levels. Holiday pressure begins.
P.J. Conradt, Tredas, talks a mixed grain market with wheat higher corn and soybeans lower. Conradt looks at how current supply demand fundamentals play into market action. Conradt also discusses how the current market may impact the 2020 growing season and farmers planting choices. Finally the conversation turns to what options are available to farmers in their marketing plan.
How did the corn and soybean markets do for the week? Does the market care if a Trade deal is done with China?
a. Yes Initially.
b. Depends on the deal after the initial move.
Do you think a trade deal with China will get done in the next month? Did your opinion on the market change after the crop? What will the market be watching going forward?
a. South American Weather
b. Demand
c. Chinese Trade Talks
d. US Production
8. How does corn demand look?
a. Ethanol
b. Exports
How does soybean Demand look? Where do you think the market goes from here?
Are the talks with China falling apart. Media play game? USMCA seems positive. Ethanol production 7th week higher…stocks lower. Brazil tariff quota for wheat. China & U.S. Poultry, ASF…
Markets giving back all the gains. Is China dead South America waiting to pounce. Tyson announcing earnings…Holcomb KS plant coming back on line, heavy weight cattle. Dean Foods & chapter 11
Turn Around Tuesday-sort of. Market deals with outside market pressure from lack of talks from China. Pushes coming to D.C. to move forward with USMCA. Harvest delays, planting progress in South America. Cattle market could continue to move higher in the weeks ahead. Worries of heavier cattle coming to market. Hogs have seen some struggles.
Cattle market makes another day of new highs except for December. Will this strong trade continue? Firmer cash market last week. Rumors we might see the Holcomb KS plant open earlier. Average weights are above a year ago. Lower grain markets. Year ago today March Corn 2nd largest crop…but still at the same price today. How much did the USDA WASDE glitch effect the markets?
WASDE report. How valid were some of the results in Re-surveying North & South Dakota Harvest weather going into next week. Open interest in the cattle-could we see some buying & is there in a top going in. Planting progress in South America.
New lows in the corn on a Thursday as markets set up for the Friday WASDE Report. China continues to play a role in the markets both on the soybean & hog side of the trade. Demand for corn isn't good, cattle crazy with export increases on the way.
Weather trying to help the last of the harvest…colder temperatures moving in will solidify fields. Lower corn & soybeans. Is the China Phase one being pushed off till December? Odds are stronger it will be completed in 2019. Friday WASDE report. Brazil to get good rains. Propane shortages? ASF-China has reopened the door to Canadian hogs & purchases from Europe-needing meat.
WASDE Report, lower grain numbers, yield potentials for corn & beans. Politics moving into push on trade & USMCA. hogs from down from their limit up trade.
Is markets getting sick of the China situation. Beans still see some strong demand & fresh Brazilian planting. Is Brazil working to take away more markets from the United States? Cattle market is setting up for some volatility in the markets. Hogs undervalued on a global sector.
Weather in South America. WASDE report a week away. How will markets go heading into next week. China another hold. Basis harvest pressure heading into the weekend. Could a soften be happening. What we are seeing in the dollar trade & its effects on the grain & livestock market. Class 3 milk prices have had some excitement this week. Vertical move higher in cattle market. Beef packer margins continue to be strong as does exports. Smart Money-no selling on this rally-does this mean there is more of a rally to go? Brazilian Cattle prices.
What are the current factors that the market is watching currently? Corn and soybean yields Harvest weather South American Weather Chinese Trade Talks Corn Demand 2020 Marketing decisions on seed purchases
Higher corn, lower beans & wheat. Harvest delays, South America crop progress, the latest on China-as conference has been suspended. What is in the deal & what isn’t. Market is taking it in stride call us when its done. Private estimates on crop progress will come out on Friday. In holding a pattern. Fed statement-how does that effect the trade. ASF. Rally in the cattle market.
Higher corn. Harvest pressure and delays seen around the Midwest. Snow & more on the way. Review of crop progress of Monday. Condition report. Where are we in this market. A bit friendly these markets. November WASDE. Brazilian soybean planting sees some advancement.
Lower corn & beans while soybeans were higher. Lackluster trade, currency issues with Brazil. Yield loss is visible in North Dakota. Harvest progress…upcoming weather system. Corn plan lacks direction. Quiet cattle market after Friday’s cattle on feed report.
A phone conversation with China, leads to some positive moves. African Swine Fever-market prices are 3x in some area's of China. Talk of food issues within the country. Snow next week and this week in the Texas Panhandle how that will effect the winter wheat. Harvest yields are getting smaller.
PJ Conradt with Tredas talks about the Thursday lower grains, the talk with China talking of a $20 billion year trade deal if signed. Choppiness in the beans, South American planting progress and the higher cash cattle trade.
Mixed corn & beans, but higher on the wheat. Harvest delays continue with rain across the Midwest & wind slowing progress elsewhere. Markets are quiet-does that make you nervous. Cattle starts to break & then pops right back up. Early cash cattle sales.
Slowest news day in markets today-which the market reflected. Spread between South America & U.S. prices. Export numbers from the U.S. Weather still being talked about = more rain then anything else. Weekly Crop Progress. Wheat movement on the market. Livestock market was relatively quiet as well. Cold Storage report due out tomorrow.
Mixed market for a Friday. Winds across the Midwest will see some dry down options with the winds moving through ahead of the storms. Harvest grind is finally here. China trade talks, USMCA-trade has drug on for so long we need to see something signed. Great leg up on the cash. Light trade in the south. Saturday sales possible? Futures market overprices vs. cash. Good correction. Profit in the calf market. Profitability in the feedlots as early as December.
Overnight markets set the stage for a Thursday day trade. The talk of certifying acres once again in North Dakota & Minnesota. Choppy trade continues with harvest delays & snow in the Dakota's & Minnesota & wet weather elsewhere. Livestock continue on an uptrend & a knee jerk reaction to the explosion in Dodge City KS.
Lower corn & beans, higher wheat. Crop progress report, some flags from South Dakota gave the national picture a bias. Another storm system is moving in. Some open days to get field work done. Bloomberg story with misleading story. African Swine Fever update. Exports to China. Stronger cattle market.
What are the current factors that the market is watching currently? Corn and soybean yields & Harvest weather. South American Weather, Chinese Trade Talks. What impact will the snow and freezing temps have on the corn and soybean yields? Do you think the extent of the damage from the freezing temps and snow are fully factored into the markets? How does the harvest weather look to you and what impact do you think that will have on harvest basis levels?
Higher cattle & hogs for a Monday. Second week in a row had cash cattle develop on a Saturday. Is this a new trend? Market higher pulling from Saturday sales. China & U.S. working on a deal-but wanting to work on more items. Significant round of fund buying, chart that has turned up. Feb cattle got above the summer highs. Low open interest. Had a big move-careful it’s a $17 rally-cattle are overbought. Hogs-cash hogs can still go higher. Significant business done with China. December hogs-Brad shares his thoughts. Grains-lack of crop maturity. Train wreck trying to get this crop out of the ground. China’s come back comment effecting the grain markets. Bullish both corn & beans.
Day after WASDE. Highlights of corn & beans. Some of the key points to keep in mind going forward. Until we have a trade agreement, we don’t have a trade agreement. Tough growing season & slow harvest. We got the early frost. Friendly S&D report. Will we see a basis change with the continued harvest delays? 7-10 days in the Dakota’s
Reaction to today's WASDE report. Weather puts a crimp in harvest, demand for beans is better then corn. S&D report also out for livestock. Seeing a lot of nervous action in the trade.
Arlan Suderman, INTL FC Stone, has a trifecta of topics including weather, WASDE and US China trade. Suderman calls the current factors influencing the markets a "pivotal time" noting that the funds are still short most ag commodities.
Markets are higher today, weather concerns building? Late planting of crops how the markets are factoring that in. Busy week in-store with Japan agreement, USDA report on Thursday & next round of China talks. Higher boxed beef, hog trade works to turn around.
Higher corn & lower beans & wheat. Frost concerns coupled with snow at weeks end. South America’s planting underway. Disappointing yields. S&D report due out on Thursday, China will be here for two days of talks…is recent purchases “Good-will” gestures. AFS & China. Cattle see late week sales on Saturday.
Corn & beans finished up on the week. So much going on next week the stage is getting set. From China & conflicting weather models & USDA reports. Seasonal average for corn? Can’t Market on Hope. Great move going in livestock-potential for some positive margins.
Overview of the factors that are driving the market right now. Did anything stand out to you from the quarterly stocks report? How is the corn crop progressing and what does this mean for the yield? What do you think could be for loses if we had a killing freeze across the norther plains? Are you expecting any surprises in the crop on October 10th. What do you think will come out of the trade talks with China next week. How does the South American weather look to you?
Rain putting a delay in the harvest with 4+ amounts being reported. Levy concerns. No surprise markets haven’t showed any concerns. Is there still the feeling of a great crop out there? After effects of the stocks reported have ended. A risk off day. Economy concerns. Not a lot of news expected from the trade talks with the Chinese holiday underway. No bio-fuels deal GFS 25% frost coverage next week-how much support? Live cattle was about the only market not under pressure. ASF puts Australia on alert
Beans see two days in a row of higher numbers. Rain continues NE into IA causing some flooding concerns. Rain in the eastern corn belt in the 10+”. Planting progress in South America. Follow through from Monday. Hogs & feeder cattle play to some lower numbers.
Did positive trade of corn play a factor in the cattle market? Cash going to stay higher? What about boxes? Cattle market saw a huge Saturday kill. So 4 of the 6 weeks since the fire we have had big kill numbers. Are we still current? Is there supply we are getting behind on? Producers becoming stubborn sellers…how does the market look going forward. H&P was the best but moving higher. Big adjust on the corn is increased feed usage. Should not come as a surprise…winter weather, increased cattle & hogs. What if the crop sees lower numbers & harvested acres is less then predicted? Change of last year’s soybean crop by a bushel/acre
Shawn Hackett, Hackett Financial Advisors, discusses the latest harvest reports and why global weather may play into long term market fundamentals. Hackett also dives into the possible impacts from capital controls by the Trump administration and what Monday's stocks report could hold. The conversation is rounded out with cattle, hogs and Class III Milk.
Aaron Bertels, Cross Roads Marketing, talks harvest and possible weather delays. Along with livestock and how political turmoil could impact the markets.
Japan, China & Impeachment all played a role in the markets. Trade talks & could a deal be done before the elections. China is buying pork & beans, Tyson fire and the cattle market.
Spring wheat leads mixed trade. Weather in Minnesota is putting support under Mpls wheat. Chance of frost/freeze next week as we get ready to hit October. Harvest pressure & possible delays. Mexico purchases 200,000 mt of corn on the daily wire. USMCA passage, farmers asking for this to get done. South America planting pressure. China’s imports of corn down 29% from the U.S. The relationship between live & feeder cattle.
Market Price recap for corn and soybeans. Overview of the factors that are driving the market right now. How is the corn crop progressing and what does this mean for the yield? How is the soybean crop advancing and how do you think soybeans yields look? What do you think will come out of the latest round of trade talks with China? How does the South American weather look to you? Is the market presenting any opportunities? Do you think we will get a chance to sell old crop and new crop at higher prices then where they are today?
How soon will we see harvest pressure set into the market? A look at the basis for corn. China & talks starting back up, along with a look at exports. Marketing of cattle & ASF and hogs.
Stock market doesn’t like Feds comments. Corn & wheat up with a flurry of wheat tenders. Early yield results suggest a smaller crop but to soon to draw a correlation to how low. Some corn & bean yields off 20-30%...Spread of ASF to South Korea. How its effecting both hog & cattle prices here in the U.S.
Grains lower on a Tuesday trade. Turnaround Tuesday with not a lot of news making moves. Today's cattle trade might set the tone for the cash market later this week.
WASDE-day after, warmer weather & delay in the start of harvest. Hogs reacting to China talk once again.
Market timing with WASDE-before during & after. The time of year is more important. November?
Basis across the Midwest.
How much is the trade war having an effect on the markets vs. is it oversupply
Weather outlook-Frost out of the market for a bit
Trade discussions still have some market influence-no news might not always be good news.
Why did the market rally today, what is the report looking like for Thursday. . Are the acres out there Any weather concerns going into the final drive before harvest? Finding out a lot of acres not planted. Importance of marketing
Why don’t farmers like options.
Update on the flyover was made public today. ASF is in the Philippines. We are seeing some success stories in China with commercial farms increasing bio security measures.
Lower grains for a Friday. WASDE report next week. Rain moving in from the west, contract lows in corn-its September its usually when it is made, but this year is making it a different marketing year. Production yield estimates
What is driving the markets at this time? What is it going to take to move this market higher? Is there anything with the progress of the corn crop that concerns you? How does the progress of the soybean crop look? What impact is Hurricane Dorian having on the markets?
Rising hog prices in China…pork prices up 30% month on month. Record high levels. Piglet prices up 95% year on year. Vietnam has culled more hogs. Most of the commodity sector goes higher today due to Chinese data. Corn did too much damage yesterday to make the day go higher. Soybeans had a strong end to the market year.
Trade impasse, outside markets not doing much, about the only bright spot is the livestock and weather is not a worry right now.
Shawn Hackett, Hackett Financial Advisers, details why the wheat market sold off due to contracts going into delivery. Hackett also looks at how a hurricane over the holiday weekend could impact trade coming back next week. US dollar, cash cattle and class III milk futures are also topics of discussion today.
A look at the markets with the effects of China, weather, trade, cattle markets with the KS fire, update on ASF
Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics, has an eagle eye view of the global impacts on the commodity trade. China is a big focus of the conversation from soybean meal prices, African Swine Fever, too how to handle your marketing plan in uncertain trade times.
Sue Martin, Ag & Investment, highlights how the US Japan trade deal over the weekend helped several commodities. Martin also believes that we may be near a low in several livestock contracts.
A look at the Pro Farmer tour & how it has effected the markets, weather concerns, RFS & cattle turn themselves around.
Pro Farmer tour continues some struggles with numbers & USDA employees being pulled. Rains moving through. Cattle market & what’s been going on since the fire & how it is affecting the cash market. Huge margins & now D.C. is getting attention. POET pulls back on plants.
Poet to cut jobs-how is that going to affect the market? Pro Farmer tour continues, good rains going across Iowa-rains to come through Nebraska tonight into tomorrow. Green on the screen for beans, but can it hold? Livestock looking at current crop conditions & focusing on purchases into the fall.
Lower day for grains on a Monday & Pro Farmer Tour has had some areas that are not good, but some good spots as well. Wide spread rains that moved across the Midwest. Value of the dollar compared to money values in South America. Inspections for beans were good Monday morning. Working to some positive numbers in the cattle and hogs after limit down trade of last week. Still uncertainty in the market place.
WASDE 5 DAYS out Money flow finishing the week out strong. Pro Farmer Crop Tour. Recession in store? Cattle market & the week of crazy swings along with an update on ASF.
Markets are still reacting to the WASDE report. Works with China & Japan continue, weather is a non market at this point, cattle had a rough ride while hogs push higher.
Not a lot of positive trade news…hopefully the pressure on the corn is backing off. Soybeans have been within a range & corn has dropped 50 cents. Cattle has been over cooked, prepare for the worst and deal with what you get with expanded limits.
Another drop in the corn still reeling from yesterday’s WASDE report. Ethanol took a hit in the futures. Many are caught between now & month end. Will September delivery period be rough again. Another down day in cattle expanded limits. Feeders can’t expand tomorrow but live cattle can. Huge hit to the ag economy.
The trade started with cattle limit down and following the WASDE and acreage report corn joined them. Sue Martin, Ag & Investment, tackles the tough question of how USDA could have came to some of their acreage numbers. Martin also discusses why cattle took the loss of a packing plant hard.
The markets end on a mixed note with more volatility in the outside markets. Shawn Hackett, Hackett Financial, breaks down what could happen on Monday with the USDA releasing the latest acreage and crop estimates. Hackett also discusses a possible chart pattern forming in milk futures.
What are the factors that the market is currently watching? How important is Monday’s WASDE report to the markets? How will the planted acres be determined for this report? Do you expect to see any acre changes? How will the yield be determined for this report? Do you expect to see any changes in yield changes? What do you do if you haven’t sold enough old crop or new corn or soybeans?
Dealing with macro markets, interest rates that plummet, global recession, August 12th report that could be packed with surprises. China & currency manipulation. A comparison to 1993, higher hogs and early talk of cash cattle.
Don Roose, US Commodities, breaks down a laundry list of factors hitting the markets today. From an emerging currency war between the US and China to weather continuing to impact US Production. Roose also shares his thoughts on how to market in volatile times.
Another big drop in the markets. From ongoing talks with China to pressure from weather & upcoming August 12th Report. Hogs have had a lot of struggles and fighting limit down trade. PJ also takes a comparison look at prices over the past year.
Lower grain markets-how to find an ag commodity that was positive. Major institutional funds have been bearish these markets since 2018. Will crop tour be later this year because of late planting? Data needed, major chart support. Looking at numbers from ASF.
Markets are lower, China talks, is there forced liquidation in the corn market. Looking Aug 12th report. Could there be a reprieve come August 1st. Not a lot of excitement in the NASS report. Nervous in conversation on crop development. Filling the gap in December corn, will rain be factored in…crop progress tour. Nice recovery in the lean hog index.
Higher grains on a Monday. A lot of prep leading into the 12th. The trade is focused-two weeks from today! Some good news out of China talks would help but otherwise consolidation mode. Not been a good year with weather. Some areas could now use some rain. Excitement for today’s crop progress report. Livestock has been a quiet trade & not going very far. Cash cattle had some struggles this week,
Darin Fessler, Lakefront Futures & Options, discusses the current markets for corn and soybeans. Lots of fundamentals to consider from weather to trade and an August acreage report from USDA. Fessler also discusses current marketing trends in the cash grains.
Not a good close for the grains, more information out on the MFP, August 12th report build up, China, Oversupply of hogs if China doesn't come to agreement,
Most of the chatter is about trade talks, China talking to privet exporters, Most say its to risky. Soft demand due to ASF. Midwest dry out in IA & IL the watched spots. Winter wheat harvest & spring wheat tour underway. Update on African Swine Fever.
Markets are starting to make some sense. Reaction to Monday crop progress report. Ethanol plants & livestock will be competing for grain into October. Trade aid for producers at a minimum of $15/acre. Wrapping up winter wheat tour & starting spring wheat tours. Outlook for the cattle market.
Cattle market had a better then expected week on the meat last week. Demand was good, movement was better. Cattle on Feed Report. Packers big margins. Trade helped by what goes on in the south. Such a complete absence of negotiated cattle on the south. How does that effect in the north? August cattle? Short term some excitement, long term has some struggles. Expansion faze over? Is there follow through buying support for the hogs? China & purchases. Lower grains with a big drop in the soybeans. Long term friendly on the grain market, weather was “perfect” for those who set out to wanting heat or rain.
Higher grain numbers to finish out a Friday. Market drove up today was there anything positive coming out of Asia & China. A lot of pressure for the week because of weather. Where is the market, where is it going into the August 12 crop report? What do we do with the crop in the field hold or sell and thoughts on world demand? Higher Chinese prices looking at the hogs large amounts of hogs.- cattle futures running to big of a discount. Beef market has been soft.
Weather has been top of mind both from a grain & livestock perspective. Even though lower, a decent day for the soybeans. Exports were considered a disappointment. Harvest wrapping up in South America. Cattle prepping for Cattle on Feed Report due out on Friday with cash expected to take place after that.
Some reports out there getting attention including ProFarmer saying prevent plant 12 ½ million acres. Numbers expected to go higher as applications arrive. Market advisory firm plane view taking pictures showing current status of the crops showing holes, skips, undeveloped fields. So now what? Why isn’t corn higher? Heat & corn pollination. Will basis remain strong for corn & beans? Cattle getting ready for COF report, hogs & China.
Shawn Hackett, Hackett Financial Advisors, drives home that 2019 does not resemble any analog data currently available in the last 100 years. This means producers are in uncharted waters. Hackett also looks at US/China trade and what the funds may be thinking.
Grain markets took a dive on a Monday, wheat took a tech led trade, rainfall & heat being talked about. Different stages of crop growth being recognized by the markets. Cash cattle is higher, while hogs try to come back into the positive.
Higher grains, WASDE report of Thursday. Weather moves back to the front burner. Delta south flooding, tropical storm coming into the Gulf, heat in the Midwest, all factors being tossed into the market trade for a Friday. Roller coaster livestock market.
Higher grains for a Wednesday anticipation of tomorrow’s report, change in the weather models, soybeans have started lead the grains, soon weather will be the dominate factor. June 28th report was a “throw away report” is the next on the same way? Do we need to move past to get to the August report. ASF-pegging lost production at 45%, bottom line there as been a flood of information coming out on how bad it is. Spreading unchecked & out of control. Cattle saw some lower trade for August feeders, but small gains for everyone else. Fats had some struggles.
Don Roose, US Commodities, breaks down today's grain and livestock trade. He previews Thursday's report for grains and why livestock saw such a big rally today.
Cattle had first day of goldman roll, Brad being bullish cattle. Higher cash is possible this week. Could see tighten supplies…in part winter struggles still hanging on. Boxed beef could break a bit. Hogs are impossible, back to levels that are below with ASF begin. Not selling any less. Hogs in Europe at record highs. Long summer of arguments, algo rhythms traders out of touch with country. Short term weather by weekend much warmer & dryer. Bullish or bearish to the trade?
Higher corn & wheat, but soybeans took a hit. EPA & 2020 announcement, did that take a toll on the beans? AFS effecting the soybeans. Traded wanted to reverse the buys beans & selling corn trend. Crop tour corn belt.
Markets closed early for the 4th of July holiday. Higher numbers to finish the trade day. Latest is Chief Economist told Bloomberg last weeks numbers into WASDE So what does that mean to the grain markets. Acres vs. yield & August 12th. Risk exposures & develop a plan. Vietnam have a vaccine for ASF? Triple digit losses in the feeder cattle.
Late pollination 10 days late here, east much later. Crude oil is lower. Finally getting past the crop report. Crop progress report wasn’t a lot in showing, Nebraska/Iowa the garden growing areas. Quieter on the live cattle. Feeders reacting to corn how will cash be influenced. Hogs need to get pushed through with not a lot of demand Maybe a grill or two will be fired up.
Trade is stuck trying to digest the USDA report of Friday. Exports haven’t been great & weather has been bearish. Feed usage side guys need to take advantage of this break. On the fat cattle side we might have a low. Hog market almost limit up-are the positive about China?
How has the corn trade looked to you this week? What do you think soybeans will do from here? Do you think there will be many surprises from the quarterly stocks report? What do you think the planted acreage report will say? How many acres of prevent plant do you think we will end up with for corn? What combination of acres and yield do you think the corn market is pricing in? Do you think we have seen the highs in the corn market?
Weather factor, Trump making news on the China trade talks, USDA report on Friday, what will those results mean? Prevent Plant with haying & grazing opportunities. Struggles in the hog market, feed cattle market finished limit up & reason’s behind that.
Growing degree days heading our way. Lower grain numbers for a Thursday. So many factors yet to play into this market including more weather from hot & dry to early frost. 1993 grain charts. G20 Summit, dollar is under pressure, a lot going on that can take its tole on the market trade.
Higher grain trade for a Monday, with weather starting to warm up in the western corn belt. Still have weather issues. Friday’s report will start to weigh in on the markets. Short crops long tail… Hog market Is taking a dive-fearful of the highs of April & hopes and risk premium being taking out of the trade. Is there a demand problem?
Lower Friday trade, a lot of volatility in the market place, weather & lack of growing degree days. Many USDA reports coming out including one on the 28th. Come to a discovery on price. Lower yields, lower acreage but not a lot of talk on the demand side. Top countries we are negotiations trade with Japan, China, Mexico, Canada and Russia.
Row crop rebound, double digit beans, above normal precipitation and a cooler forecast has brought less growing degree days. Bins are staying closed with old crop with hopes of higher prices later this year. Cattle & hogs had a tough trading day, feeder cattle lower in part because of higher corn.
Lower grain numbers once again. Double digit losses in beans & wheat. Computer trading & its effects on the market. Adverse weather years are drought years, but not this year not a lot of history on how to trade a excessively wet year so computers are becoming difficult to trade. Pressure in the cattle market.
Raining again, crop progress report, mixed grain prices. Did the corn market get ahead of itself? How are we with commercial buying? Demand & exports. South American currencies are cheaper. Feed demand for fall.
Higher numbers, but are we hitting the demand side? Is there some underpinning of the soybean market? Waiting for the weekly crop progress numbers from NASS on a Monday afternoon. Rain to the east, hail in Nebraska & waiting for the wheat harvest. Is feedstocks for fall a big concern? Triple digit gains in the cattle market.
Higher grains…more wet weather moving in through the Midwest. Lacking growing degree days. Insect concerns in corn and beans. Disease issues are starting to creep. Prevent Plant, marketing with uncertain yields. How do the livestock guys deal with the grain issues. Steer weights are down.
Why is the corn market up so strong today? Why is the soybean market moving higher? Since corn has reached new highs for the move, where are the next levels of resistance? What amount of acres of prevent plant and yield do you think the current prices are pricing in? What would have to happen for the corn market to go to 5.50 December corn futures? What do you think USDA will do with the corn yield going forward? How do you market if you think you are going to have prevent plant acres?
Beans were up which is a good thing. Weather will continue to be a talk when trying to get the crop in the ground. WASDE report day after reaction. Nebraska is the hot spot for good looking beans. Hogs being liquidated in China, some cleansing of the hog market.
Grains have reacted to some positive news. Also have to realize what the USDA does with these early reports. Not enough information to give a true number. Robbing peter to pay paul on the early numbers. Will we see a reduction in the next report? First condition report came out on Monday & we are no where near where we can be come August/September. Lots of volatility and new weather patterns could add to the stress this year-not only in the U.S. but world wide. If anything that can break out of the pack it’s the wheat market.
Don Roose, US Commodities, breaks down the latest trade news between the US and Mexico. Roose also gives his unique insight into South America and how quickly their ag industry is advancing.
Finishing off the week on a negative grain numbers. Outside market influences including trade talks with Mexico & waiting on China. Weather eastern corn belt OH IN IL, trying to get seed in. Losses in the feeder cattle market.
Planting progress, prevent plant and upcoming USDA reports. Unknowns with Mexico & China when it comes to trade.
Lower grain prices, delay in planting, corn being imported from Brazil NE & IA are the “Garden States” IL to loose 2 m acres of corn, “Perfect growing season” won’t help. Size of the corn crop…imports out of Brazil. ASF Update
Expectations were high for Monday night's crop progress report. Flooding issues are being compared to 1927. Planting progress. Rally in the feeder cattle market, African Swine Fever.
Wheat was all over the place, marketing awaiting the weekly crop progress report. Rising feed cost & trade issues with Mexico.
A positive end to the trading day after a mixed overnight trade. Weather will continue to be a marketing factor with lack of planting and possibilities of prevent plant. The cattle market had a rough trade day & the spread of ASF to North Korea.
Higher beans. Lower corn & wheat. A look at the higher numbers in soybeans, delay in the planting progress & moving forward in this growing season. A triple number drop in feeders, bounced back a bit. Not selling more then what you have insurance on for grains.
Double digit higher grains for a Tuesday. A lot of talk of weather, planting delays, crops being flooded. Look at marketing old crop. Window closing to sell milk. Struggles in the hog market.
USDA announcement on assistance effects on the markets, how today's USDA announcement has left a lot of questions for producers who still have to plant.
ASF is still out there, but the main story has been planting delays and the current weather. Markets assistance plays into it plant for the market or plant for the assistance. Weather & its effects on Memorial Day.
Wet weather to continue. Slow planting pace in the Midwest. Is this turning into price discovery & beans vs. corn . Weather effecting the movement of proteins across the counter. Cash cattle will wait till end week & hogs have more spread of ASF in China.
Higher grains, waiting for planting progress report this afternoon. Many parts of the Midwest shut down on planting because of rain, soil temperatures on the cool side. Trade with China. Spread of ASF.
Great news for beef with Japan. Cash Market wasn’t the best this week, Could go below $100 in September. Beans took a big drop. Wet weather moving back in over the next 10 days.
Jeff Peterson, Heartland Farm Partners dives into weather models, fund positions, planting delays, and what producers should be doing with their marketing given the current state of the markets.
Arlan Suderman, INTL FCStone, talks about the volatility in today's trade, preventive planting, and how ASF could impact livestock into the future,
Doug Simon, Tredas, discusses the possible reasons behind the grains big rally on the day. Simon also goes over ways to capture the gain in prices today.
Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics, surmises wheat's bounce could be technical with the May contract going off the board. Zuzolo expresses his thoughts on USDA's corn and soybean data. Along with why China might blink first in current trade negotiations.
Lower grains, trade talks are not going well. President says until we have a trade deal, we don’t have a trade deal. Poor weekly export sales, WASDE report says heaver then a month ago. Put in come contract lows, but still didn’t finish at the low. Opportunities in the market-do we need to go look for them?
Markets are not looking good today with double digit lower trade, Everything being driven by trade, will soon start to focus on something else, maybe that will include WASDE, weather update on the dairy industry
Markets trade back to lower numbers after a positive overnight trade. Grains not as bad as the past couple of days, trade talks & the current status. Friday WASDE Report, market expectations, weather & what we are seeing across the Midwest & South American weather. ASF Update & the mixed trade of the cattle.
What is the latest on the Chinese Trade Talks?
Are you thinking we are getting closer to a trade deal with China?
What role are the fund positions playing in this market?
How does planting progress look?
What does the weather look like over the next couple of week?
How important is the WASDE report going to be on May 10th?
a. What are you expecting for changes in Acres?
b. Are you expecting any changes on the yields that are used?
Lower grain markets. One positive outlook is that it could have closed. A huge chunk of the markets has to do with the President’s threats with China. Actions of the day trade were much better then what we saw in the overnight trade. Weather continues to be wet. Mississippi River flooding. Corn/Beans ratio KC wheat was a bright spot Downtrend continues in the cattle.
Darin Fessler, Lake Front Futures, starts in the livestock trade. Triple digit losses in cattle continue to point towards fund liquidation. Grains continue to watch weather. Fessler believes late May could get planted in a hurry if conditions improve.
Adding insult to injury. Cold and wet in the midwest. Fundamentals switching corn to beans? Any trade deals with China, Japan? Soft corn exports. Funds on the livestock
Higher corn & wheat, lower beans-which is understanding how bad the fundamentals are. Markets are all about ASF, trade war & planting delays. MAY 1 is here. Which means more reaction from planting delays.
Lower is the trend in the grains. No surprises in the crop progress report-what is the future impact. Could this be the week we see a big jump? Soil temps just not ready. Good discussion on exports and our grain markets. Is the livestock market oversold? Don’t be worried about the markets falling apart.
Markets still not the best. Trade talk with China continues. May 8th could be the last talk between the countries, weather & planting. How do you trade old & new crop-looking strong basis levels. Cattle market has had some struggles & how market is reacting to ASF talks.
Higher grains today, the weather continues to come more into focus. April moving into May fundamentals that are moving the market lower-how to figure a low working in. Livestock was due for a lower trade. ASF, less exports. What does this mean going into the summer months.
Markets see another lower but a positive spin is looking back over the past 4 years & the tone of the market. China trade talks continue, ASF-will it be a supporting factor for all proteins.
Why are the corn and soybean markets getting hit so hard lately?
Why are the funds selling the corn and soybean markets so hard today?
How does planting progress and planting weather look going forward?
What is it going to take to turn these markets around?
How do you think the next round of the Chinese trade talks will go?
What do you do if you still have unsold old crop and new crop corn and soybeans?
Down day in the grain markets. Warm weather over the weekend this week’s forecast is a pressuring factor. Wheat is pulling corn lower. Spread continues for ASF & how it will effect grain & livestock markets.
Market is stuck as its to early to say what the planting’s will be. Ever ending delay in what the trade stance will be. Exports have been shy of where we need to be, that has been putting some pressure on the market. Dollar isn’t lending any help either. Harvest in South America with some good supplies. Speculators are heavily short. Is there some mis-diagnosis in the weather issue. A look at global weather issues. A look at the dairy industry & the happenings in the cattle trade.
Talks continue next week with China. Will there be a signing soon? Harvest wrapping up in South America, comparing growing season of '93 today. Cattle seeing some early cash buys, more on ASF
Snowy & wet spring. Not a lot of new news & prices have reflected that. Weather is trying to get warmer, but sounds like delay past May 1st will then cause some market concerns. Basis is firming. Wheat continues lower. Livestock-feedlots trying to get cleaned up. ASF how is the market going to pick things apart. China buying pork
Grains-end the week positive. So when will corn rally? Soybean outlook. Planting stress. How much more wet will it take to get market excited. Don’t bank on China.
Sue Martin, Ag & Investment, discusses the big news of China buying US pork and why soil moisture may change some corn acres.
Arlan Suderman, INTL FC Stone, dives into the latest trade developments with China and why Secretary of Treasury Steve Mnuchin is pushing for an enforcement mechanism. Suderman also talks the impacts of African Swine fever in South Africa and NPPC's decision to cancel World Pork Expo 2019.
Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics, takes on tough questions following the latest WASDE report. Zuzolo looks at how the USDA accounted for a smaller soybean stockpile and why the wheat stockpile may have fed the bears. Zuzolo also discusses weather impacts from an impending storm and trade with the EU.
Lower corn & soybeans. Snow moving back into the Midwest. Report out tomorrow. Spring & planting. How do the markets look for the next month vs. the next 3 months. Trade doesn’t seem to react much to weather like today. Cattle pick up some buyer interest with watching the hogs.
Grain late spring plant? Marking time on trade talks with China. Final 10% left on negotiations. Corn ends positive. China ASF worst then last week. 22% of the worlds hog capacity is now offline & still spreading Where do we sit for demand in soybean meal. What if no exports are shown tomorrow?
Update on African Swine Fever & how it will effect the livestock markets. Seeing an increase in livestock prices internationally along with protein demand Decline over night reversal in the U.S. dollar Dairy-prices in New Zeeland continues to soar how does this compare & effect the U.S. prices?
Rebound in the soybean market. Profit taking in the corn with some weather concerns being factored in. Prevent plant acres. Weekly Crop Progress reports start today. Cattle holding their own on the trade, hogs have had some struggles ASF & protein demand.
Reaction from the USDA reports. Month end, quarter end, weekend, a lot of calls were sold today. Wheat, Hogs & Pigs Reports, ASF, China, Feeder cattle down a bit on the trade. Hogs get beat down in the trade.
Chinese and US Trade Talks. What is the latest on the fund positions and how does that impact the market going into planting season. How does the ethanol demand look? What do corn and soybean exports look like? How is corn and soybean planting progressing? What is the market expecting in the quarterly stocks and prospective planting. Opportunities in the old and new crop sales.
Corn & beans lower. Quarterly stocks & planting intentions report out on Friday. Trade talks pick up tonight in China, USMCA, ASF Wheat is competitive on the world market. Any dryness concerns globally?
Pre-report thoughts ahead of Friday's USDA numbers, Carryover potential, planting thoughts, a look at the cattle market with the struggles, when will we see cash trade.
A lot of fundamental with corn & beans. Funds & how short they are, weather, is there going to be a trigger for the trade, China deal back burner but still there, any spring planting concerns? Is there a chance for more bean acres. Triple digit loss in the cattle. How will recent cattle loss effect future marketing.
Lower beans & wheat, higher corn. ASF cattle President Trump says the trade deal with China will happen. We can expect a continued delay in spring planting all across the upper Midwest. Sales confirmed to China for corn.
Higher grain markets. Trump & China making the news, flooding continues, bases. Favorable weather in South America. Marketing your old crop grain in the current market conditions. Expanded limits on the hogs-up $4.50. Added to the overall strength of the livestock markets.
Water levels keep rising. Snow melt hasn’t even happened, every time a levy breaks more consequences to agriculture. More weather moving our way. ASF increasing, Arlan shares some surprising numbers.
Weather still issue. Delayed planting floating around. Markets short? Trade talks not good with the flip flopping, Talking China & now the EU. South American crop a lot of grain. Moving grain from the countryside. Cattle market moving forward marketing now & into the future with recent cattle losses.
Weather will continue to be a huge factor…no grain movement out of the Midwest. Tough time for the grains. Funds are record short on the grains. Not a lot of news out there. Just like in the grains its quite in the livestock. Limit up trade of hogs last week effecting the trade today. Happenings in the cattle -how does that effect the long term.
Higher grains to finish a Friday! China-talk of possible purchases did they take corn? Soymeal-get it moving it will help the beans. Mississippi has some flooding issues & that means lack of barge movement. Farm yards & gravel roads in bad shape so no movement of grain. Cattle higher & hogs react to China buy
Weather effecting the winter wheat trade. Look at South American second crops & upcoming planting intentions report. Cattle not reacting to weather moving through the Midwest.
Higher corn & beans, lower wheat. Weather concerns. This week is another example of computer trading, today saw no substance in the trade of yesterday. China rumors bring corn & beans up. Still some skeptical trade. Rumors & China there was also a document from China miss-translation possibilities. Changes to the August crop report. Gains in the cattle futures, surge of pork in China.
Why are the markets strong today? Chinese and US Trade Talks. How does the US weather look? Is this short of a position normal for the funds this time of year? How are our shipments of Corn and Soybeans? What should be done with the remaining old crop corn and soybeans?
A Monday that started with a lot of red on the screen. Grains just getting beat up who is left to sell? Wheat market keeps getting beat up. Supply issues for both beans & wheat. Weather, planting intentions coming up. Bean confirmation to China. Acres report at the end of the month. Cattle struggle.
Lower corn & beans, higher for the wheat on a Friday. China & weather. WASDE report. Conversations with clients. South American Harvest. Cold Storage information. China’s numbers higher overnight for hogs.
Grains take another drop, WASDE report out tomorrow. Trade & weather continue to play a role in the market trade as a lot weighing on the March 27th meeting. Cattle struggle with weather concerns but slaughter stays at pace.
Today’s trade was the impact of computer trade. Lower grains, charts are breaking down, a low-maybe. We need a trigger point to turn it. Continue on China & weather-may be the trigger points. Planting delays & conditions across the U.S. Flooding risks on the river system, South American conditions. WASDE report on Friday. Winter weather supporting the cattle.
Grains-some excitement over the weekend that we might be moving forward with China. Big reversal on Friday with the corn market. Corn may have made their low. Huge movement in the cash cattle. 128.50 traded on a Monday. Some early indications that the cash market will be okay this week. April sees a weakness makes for an interesting month. Higher boxes. Weather is still significant. Cattle are hurt & hurt badly March cattle. Hogs-China news not as helpful ASF
Spring planting & the need to look beyond trade. Strong buying seen in the wheat & soybeans with large delivers in corn, wheat & beans. Prevent plant might need to be looked at. Cattle still bullish, weights are down. Dairy looking good going not only into 2nd quarter but to the second half of the year. The shift to beef from pork in China.
First notice day, bull spreading. South American crop is on track, export sales of corn on track. Weather/flooding issues in the U.S. ASF increases in China. What do their consumers think of pork? Winter storm causing issues with weight gain & some consolidation in beef.
Grains end mixed with pressure from the bears to see US China trade deal results. Ag producers may have to make a decision on stored grain. Plus a look at the cattle and hog trade. Sam Hudson of Cornbelt Marketing breaks down the days trade.
Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics, joins us on Tuesday's Final Bell and talks about whether or not we've maybe hit a low with corn and especially wheat. He also touches on the impact ASF is having on supply when it comes to hogs.
Wheat feels double digit losses to open up the weeks trade. Soybeans are able to hold onto the green at the close. Troy Nielson of Smart Yield looks at the factors influencing the trade. Nielson also gives his thoughts on current cash marketing and possible risk management opportunities.
Will get caught up on numbers in reports on Friday-how much has that weighed in on the market. Is there some spillover pressure on the corn coming from beans & wheat? Wheat continues to struggle. Dollar weighs in on the markets. Sideways range-trade talks stalls and well its February. Hogs have had a rough go on expanded limits and still pushed the level earlier in the day. China dumpling issues, the rumors of tainted feed in Canada. Still in the bull weather market for cattle. Seasonal move ready to take place.
Not a good day in the grains! This break had not much to do with the China talks. What the heck is going on with the wheat market? African Swine Fever-might not be able to off set the loss demand. Consumption walking away?
Quiet Friday headed into a long holiday weekend. Some liquidation in the trade, but good to not see that move into a Friday. China might be moving forward-but didn’t have much market effect. Weather in the US & South America. Hogs front month keep holding. Is there a seasonal low in place? China/Mexico & their need for supplies. Cattle-tough winter-already priced into the market. Stress to growth. A lot of protection being put on.
Weather concerns as we head to spring planting first in the south. Will wetter conditions & heave snow as well to the north slow down the planting? Chinese trade talks continue, Corn & soybean quarterly stocks now & moving forward. Supply & demand for corn & beans for the 2019 crop.
Increased volatility. Logistics on the Mississippi River. Good growing conditions in South America. Watch early corn pollination/ China trade Austrian struggles with cattle loss. ASF in China.
Lots of snow-what does that bring for spring planting. Light buying returns to the corn market. Ethanol margins remain poor. “Next” meeting is coming with China with high anticipation. Will the shutdown happen? How has that effected the markets. Australia has gone from drought to flooding. Though it doesn’t have a direct effect on the U.S. it really does as Australia trades with China. Triple digit gains in the hog market.
Mixed grains for a Monday. Cattle market moves to the higher. Cash market was considered “ok” there was a few cattle traded at $1.27. Deliveries bring some confidence to the market. Weather has been and will continue to be an issue including a super low in Hawaii supportive to the front end of the markets. Short term demand is fine. Getting a touch overbought. Hogs-some hope out there, look at the April contract. China driven & lack of demand. ASF sees more spread. Grains-corn reaction to last weeks report. Buy corn? Beans kind of like a bad date with China.
Lower corn, higher beans & mixed wheat. Report from the USDA was quieter then many had expected. An in-depth look at the Friday report numbers. Livestock didn't pay much attention to the report. Cattle to the upside.
President Trump is "Highly Unlikely" to meet with the Chinese President. Big report tomorrow and markets saw a quieter day in preparation for the numbers. Still getting 2018 information from the USDA as seed is being delivered in the south. Choppy cattle, demand is slow & there is the need to move stuff out of the freezer.
Lower grain market, reaction from the State of the Union Address, bean sales to China along with current trade work with China. Huge influences of numbers on Friday with USDA reports. Weather in the Midwest taking its toll on grain movement & livestock growth. Cattle weights are lower, S&D & the need for warmer weather for BBQ season. Hogs & China.
Higher corn & beans, lower wheat. Friday report & its reflection on the markets. Cattle trading higher.
Higher prices in the grains on a Monday. Report week with a large mount of numbers set to be released on the 8th. Quiet week for South American weather-weather issues here in the U.S. Soybean report on the market can we go above $9.25 Large amount of hogs killed in China, Winter kill issues Higher cattle as feeders increase the live cattle.
Looking at higher grain numbers to finish out the week & the first trading day in February. Postponed information is starting to trickle in-including the average weight was that a market sparker? Another month of bad weather in January, Thursday’s action was disturbing where are we sitting possible highs put in? 2nd wettest weather on record in 50 years-does that mean some good news for February. Some cash bids coming in. Hogs have some issues trading way to cheap. To many hogs- China trade discussions.
Lower grain trade. Getting worn down in the trade, from the producer to the commodity broker-the bright spot might be issues in South America, one mans woes is another’s boost. Time is the essence, world trade has had struggles. How does one handle all the info being tossed at them in the next couple of weeks. Winter kill issues wheat & alfalfa & how it relates to cattle.
Higher grain prices. Federal Reserve today & the dollar-could we see some changes. 1972-1973 Russian grain buy-could be reflected with China now. Dairy-Milk powder in price-but cheese has not. Starting to hear a lot of milk that was going to be cheese is going to powder & butter.
Another day of lower numbers-is there uncertainty with all that’s going on with charges filed, China meeting starting later today, Gov’t back open. Dramatic cold & its effects on the wheat crop
Lower grains in the trade today. First day back for federal workers. Bleed out of USDA data-Thursday should be a big market day. Corn-the positive has been demand, energies tie in. South American weather how is that effecting the grains. Livestock side of the trade-cash was weaker last week that turned positive on a Monday-can’t get rid of the optimize in the cattle. First quarter demand. Summer months more fearful.
Recap the market activity for the week for corn and soybeans. South America Harvest Progress Productions estimates Weather Safrinha Corn Crop
Latest on the Chinese Trade Talks
Update on Corn and Soybean Shipments
Higher soybeans while corn & wheat to the lower side. Trade continues to be a struggle, meetings next week. Could see a nasty finish to the winter. The impacts that will affect winter wheat, cattle & some planting seasonal problems. Weather in South America. 40 year excessive rain Argentina, dryness in Brazil. Many wonder how the crop will finish out. Dairy good cop bad cop in the market place. Seasonal week point but powder milk plus.
Mixed corn higher beans wheat Beans are a combo of China hopes & adverse weather in South America. Wheat is on China rumors & Black Sea region tightening Corn can’t get going with the fear of soybeans losing acres goes to corn. How would corn be affected if China comes back into the market. Corn & beans staying in its recent patterns. ASF expands & how its effecting the market.
Lower corn & soybeans, higher wheat. Colder weather continues. China news pops up during the day, cancel of a meeting, market will continue to be volatile as the gov’t continues to stay closed. Expect a flood of numbers to hit the trade when the Gov’t reopens
Higher markets heading into a holiday weekend. A lot of Chinese rumors out there in the trade. Cattle market worried about the weather moving across the U.S. Hogs look at trade with China and more ASF.
Another day of higher grains. China & U.S. working on tariff’s Rally’s coming from supplies and weather not demand. Cattle market reacting to upcoming storm.
Higher moves on the grain market. Hope/expectation of movement with China. Next negations are in two weeks in DC rumors of China buying corn. Some strong damage yesterday. Soybeans were able to come back on some support. African Swine Fever-China says hog numbers down. Hogs numbers are down more then being told. Big drop in soybean meal demand. Triple-digit losses have developed in feeder cattle.
Not a strong day, not a lot of news for the markets to play on. Pressure on the bean market is affecting the corn trade. Weather in South America. A push on the front month cattle. Protect a decent amount of money right now. Boxed beef market turning lower. What is beyond the weather market.
Corn saw some steady trade while soybeans & wheat went lower. China trade deal. No data coming from the government. Battle between when the markets focuses on worries of demand vs. days they focus on deals maybe getting better & the weather. Overall a lot of sideways choppy trade. Milk powder. A lot going on in the markets…hearing positives.
Grains end in the green, but is there weakness in the soy complex. No WASDE and what to expect. Plus a look at livestock and the outside markets. Tomm Pfitzenmaier discusses a broad range of topics on The Final Bell.
Buy the rumor sell the fact may have hit the grains following the US China announcement. Will the current price and balance sheet impact acres of corn and soybeans. There was a narrow range in the live cattle contract. Plus the Fed Chair spoke today. Darin Fessler, Lakefront Futures, has the answers to important market questions.
How did wheat stay in the green? Is South American weather still an impact to their crops? What rallied cattle? These questions and more answered by Sam Hudson, Cornbelt Marketing.
China could show their "good faith" with more concrete evidence. Corn and wheat don't look overbought. Long term bullishness possible for cattle. Plus producer sentiment. Sue Martin, Ag & Investment, goes in depth on the Final Bell.
Grains were higher to wrap up the week. Numbers thing-crop in Brazil that is getting smaller, wheat concerns in Argentina China talks. Positive economic numbers. January 11th report to be delayed-big report hopefully in February. Livestock-key reversal on Monday & we couldn’t come back from that for the cattle. Weather issues for feedlots. Hogs All the optimize for hogs-but no knew buying yet.
Key fundamentalist on the cattle is what the average weights are. Gov’t shutdown has had an effect on getting the needed information on Thursday’s. Weights have seen a drop. Have to look into the crystal ball a bit but demand has been good, stock market effects on the domestic demand. Cash could go higher for cattle and hogs. Demand is there for hogs. Need to keep ASF away from the U.S. Grains dealing with dryer areas of South America. China could be buying another round of beans. Some prospects in buying July Corn.
Positive grains, will we have a January 11th crop report? Harvest just getting started in Brazil. The new TPP & its effects on the US. China makes a purchase of U.S. rice. Dollar effects. Lower cattle & higher hogs.
Look back on 2018. Partial Gov’t. shutdown has caused a slowdown in info but considering all that has been tossed its way the markets have held up. African Swine Fever has taken its tole.
Nice increase in the soybeans, traders are disappointed there isn’t any new news coming out from commercials & outside markets. Brazilian beans are ready to be harvested and premiums are a bit higher then in the U.S. Weather issues in South America as harvest takes place. Increase in cattle price
Grain markets see some positive trade…rough trade with outside forces having influence on the trade. Outside market influence & then dealing with a partial government shutdown. Looking towards the 2nd quarter for dairy goodness.
Arlan Suderman, INTL FC Stone, discusses macro economics and how they influence the ag markets.
Don Roose, US Commodities, breaks down the grain and livestock trade. Roose looks at what could happen with a government shutdown and which was the more important report out on Thursday.
Grains had some good export numbers in, but why are we still down? Dollar still lower, long corn-short wheat. Energy sector weighs on the market…leaning long. Cattle working toward a positive end to 2018. Hogs have dealt with African Swine Fever & being competitive with other proteins.
A lot of red on the screen, hogs & crude oil were able to hold on to gains. Why drop in soybeans. Talk of the Fed announcement.
Higher corn & beans, lower on the wheat. Individual news that has hit the markets & why it hasn’t allowed for a rally. Cattle on Feed & Hogs & pigs moved to Thursday.
Nothing has changed from last week-still waiting on corn talk with China. Pacific Northwest has been quiet…no shipment word yet. Felt like a holiday day. Funds are long. Drop in the livestock trade. Marketing thoughts for the rest of 2018.
China makes purchases of U.S. beans. Can’t be overly impressed with the price action. Some profit taking and movement from the country. Rumors floating of corn purchases. More optimistic in corn not a great wheat day. But wheat charts still look good. Livestock-hogs saw some sharp numbers & then reverse and close lower. Stock market sell off didn’t help either.
Beans see a double-digit drop. Farm Bill passage & waiting for President’s signature. Tariff’s are still an issue. New Crop marketing plans. Cattle with a fundamental analysis. What does the chart pattern look like at this point.
China is buying beans-more optimism centered around China buying more U.S. beef. Chinese buy a lot from other countries. Big premiums in the hogs with African Swine Fever. Supply side is still bearish. Farm Bill vote today.
WASDE Report was pretty quiet. Business as usual as we head into the holidays. Government is still planning on 1.9 billion bushels to China. Comparative prices to a year ago. Farm Bill moving along. World weather looks beneficial for everyone. Bullish & bearish factors to think about. Second highest Oct for corn in exports but lowest for beans.
Cattle are getting more time on feed then the 5 year average, with steers more then heifers staying longer. As dairy's shut down milking the influx continues on the market. Wide trading range in the hogs. Good export numbers this morning, China trade negotiator arrest had markets in a funk yesterday & it has turned around. Yields not as big as expected as harvest continues.
Lower grain prices. President Trump & what we have learned about his policy in 2018. World wheat projections. Triple digit losses in the hogs.
China starting to talk more positives. Quiet trade day with funeral for #41 Nervousness for South America as trade talks move forward with China. Higher livestock prices as they reflect as well on grains & quiet trade.
Grain’s for the most part saw an uptick in the market continuation from yesterday as they continue to digest the weekend happenings. Stock market is not taking it all as positive news. Will there be a second round of payments for producers? Russia/Ukraine and wheat, South American Soybeans. Additional buyer support for cattle. Grains & Livestock will be trading tomorrow.
G20 Summit had market reaction…should beans of been higher. Buy the rumor sell the fact. Orders got filled in the overnight. Should now be the time to get orders in? Hogs took a drop as they react to the grain overnight & day trade.
USMCA, G20 a lot going on in the market trade to bring some optimism to the trade day. Lower crude oil, lower gas prices…effects on ethanol. Livestock react to grain prices
Down day in the grains, the markets focus is on the G20-first reaction to the Saturday meeting will be the Sunday overnight. First notice day tomorrow. No weather concerns in South America. Russia dispute on the wheat. Weather moving in. China buying pork from the U.S. part of the work towards a limit up trade. Evening up liquidation ahead of end of month for cattle.
Rally before the 11:00 hour on Wednesday. Then right after 11 we saw a drop in the dollar, crude drop, a speech released finds money flow effecting prices. Weekend line up-big picture wall of worry could see two thinks that could change it FEDS or a trade deal or strong movement towards one at the G20 meeting
Beans turned around to finish to the higher. DDG’s remain poor on prices-how does that effect the ethanol plants. Cash remains strong for cattle.
Big drop in the soybeans. G20 Summit not all it was talked up to be leading into the meeting later this week. Final harvest pressure. In less then 2 months Brazil will be marketing their beans. China imports of beans from Brazil nearly doubled from last year.
Brad Kooima, Kooima & Kaemingk, discusses why cattle and hogs ended in the green. Kooima also looks into if the gains can continue into the first week of December.
Arlan Suderman, INTL FC Stone, discusses the trade a day prior to thanksgiving. Soybeans end in the green, but Suderman see's plenty of downside potential. Suderman also discusses the current state of the economy.
Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics, discusses how spread trade may have helped bring soybeans back to the green. Zuzolo also points out how a global economic slow down impacts markets.
Eric Krueger, Smart Yield, talks the trade today. Big down day for soybeans. Wheat fell right behind soybeans. The positive note on the day was the triple digit rally in lean hog contracts.
Waiting for the next tweet, crude oil, natural gas, border trade, USDA taking China report at face value Lack of fresh news for the grains. Livestock moving towards a shortened holiday week.
Crude oil market, volatility in the markets-funds being blown out. Seeing a lot of money flow vs. fundamentals. Grains are left hanging-will there be a trade agreement before Nov 30. Dollar influence dollar pull back the past couple of days. Could create some problems for the grains. Livestock disappointing market. Shorter slaughter schedule next week with the holiday.
Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics, lets us in on why the US dollar is surging higher and if it will come back down. Zuzolo also highlights the supply issues helping wheat higher.
Clint Hoffman, Tredas, discusses the grains and their slow day of trade. As well as the upcoming WASDE report. Hoffman also looks at the current climate of the cattle trade.
Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics, breaks down the weeks opening trade and looks at the important events happening this week including the midterm elections.
More discussion on Chinese trade talks. Yield estimates released ahead of November 8th USDA Report. Quiet livestock trade.
Beans trade much higher today, will there be a follow through? Is this mid-term excitement? What was the trade about today? Optimism with the President’s tweet on trade & China. What happens next. What’s going on with South America. Base line projections tomorrow. November 8th report what do yields look like. Livestock-boom bust market in the hogs. Record large supplies with expansion continues. Optimism built into the back months. Cattle market feels mature, cash market inches higher.
Corn & wheat traded lower, the strength in the dollar last two weeks has had a correlation with the markets. Soybeans to the upside. The strength to the beans has hopes it will lower the USDA #'s next week. Crop quality concerns. Swine Fever Talk
Lower grain numbers…Election to markets. Movement of the cash cattle market this week. African Swine Fever-how true are the numbers.
Lower corn & beans-Brazilian election, real vs. the dollar & how it corresponds with the beans. Brazilian president is very Trump like. Weekly Export Numbers & a 120,000 purchase by an Unknown for soybeans. Cattle can’t seem to find its marketing direction.
Recap the market activity for the week for corn and soybeans. Discuss harvest progress and what to expect in the Crop progress report on Monday. Talk about the slow pace of export sales What impact the Brazilian Election could have on the markets. The latest on Chinese Trade talks.
Dow turns around. Tough day in the markets. Triple digit losses in the feeder cattle market. Exports slower for soybeans. Weather slowing down the harvest.
Grains traded lower on Wednesday. Chart formation a bottom in the corn, funds got out of a lot of short positions. A lot of negativity into the soybean market. There might be some significance in the mid-term election that could affect the soybeans. How are the harvest numbers really coming in? Is there some difference in the USDA numbers? Cattle-The bids indicate fully steady to higher mid-week. The time of year we need to be heads up in the demand. Through some of the big cattle run. Packer is still making money. We have supply & have fantastic demand even with the stock market lower. Hogs all about that China MIGHT stop taking hogs from EU.
What is the real yield in the country side. What is going on from a basis point. Yields in northern Iowa are variable. Producers busy with harvest but trying to get a marketing plan in place. Upside downside in the grains. Livestock dealing with large supplies & African Swine Fever. Cattle has increased supplies increasing in the 4th quarter. Cattle & the EU 90% of our market is domestic market with cattle. Stock market is under pressure.
Sue Martin of Ag and Investment talks about why corn and soybeans continued higher even as the US dollar hit nearby highs. Martin also discusses how the latest cattle on feed report and cutouts helped live cattle futures.
Eric Krueger of Smart Yield discusses how corn and soybeans may move lower. This week marked the first lower week in over a month. Krueger also discusses black sea wheat and cattle.
Shawn Hackett of Hackett Financial Advisors talks about the impact a falling Chinese market has on the US market. Hackett also discusses the seasonal decline in dairy.
Soybean harvest pressure…fighting back with the weather models talking more rain. Some major resistance in the meal. Wheat has struggles with Brexit & dollar. Hand shake deal with President might be in trouble. COF on Friday.
Lower grain market. Spillover pressure from the beans effecting the corn. Weather with harvest days. Two cargoes of beans headed to China. Brazil running short on beans. Lower trade in the cattle market.
Beans to the positive-hope that the momentum can stay. Market nervousness of what the crops will look like post snow melt. Corn & beans has so much focus-weather will give trade volatility. Will we be at 40% by this afternoon in crop progress report?
Higher grains to finish out a Friday. Snow & rain causing enough havoc to stop harvest. Follow through from the crop report. Upticks in basis levels over the week in corn & beans. When harvest goes slow like this logistics are in place, sometimes causes grains to have to reach to get crops into the pipeline. Good corn exports continue. A big sigh of relief to the results of the crop report. Wheat volatility of the trade from balance sheets to trade. Poor technical week in most of the livestock contracts. Cattle sharply lower on the week. Hogs-June contract posted a key reversal.
WASDE Report from beans sprouting to snow on beans, its been a difficult harvest. Corn reacts to WASDE. Numbers today are from Oct. 1 & don't include the recent weather & Hurricane Michael. Hedge Feed Costs, looking at cash cattle & hog prices.
Lower markets, drop in the soybean trade. Dow is also lower. Risk off with harvest, USDA report tomorrow. All factored into the lower trade day. E15 announcement. Livestock pressure.
More rain expected. Hurricane Michael Quality of corn, soybeans & wheat, delay to the harvest, President Trump in Council Bluffs. Livestock: Big supply are starting to weigh on the market. Have hogs & cattle topped out.
Lower corn market continues. Weather pressure…not a lot of harvest underway. Hurricane Michael set to make landfall later this week. Traders data showed missed the guess data by 50,000 contracts on Friday. Some short covering met with farmer selling. Thursday report. 2-5” of rain expected yet this week. Election in Brazil currency was 3-5% higher overnight.
E15 announcement coming to Iowa-RINS how has the market doing and reacting spot beans. Weather premium in the market? Bean basis in Kearny & Lexington Currency in South America. Stock to use ratio. Drop in the cattle market.
Trade war-Russia’s issues, USMCA, New money coming in this week along with tons of weather. Triple digit losses in the cattle was tied to the drop in the hogs. Cash hog market (Oct) saw higher numbers.
How the crude oil market is giving support to the corn and soybean markets. Did anything stand out in the Quarterly Stocks report? What impact is the US weather going to have on the markets and also on harvest? What areas are you watching in regard to world weather? How is South America doing on weather and planting? What does the USMCA (Nafta 2.0 mean for the livestock markets) What actions should a person be taking on their marketing plans?
Looking at the crop you are harvesting-how are you marketing it? Is there re-ownership opportunities? NAFTA effects on the trade. Corn basis expected to stay sideways, beans having some tougher days. Seasonally on livestock we are in a time of year to see some lower trends. Expect some heavy inventories the 4th quarter
Report day-how markets reacted. Listener question on if there is a silver lining in the soybean market with South American running low on beans. Uptick in the hog market.
Higher grains. Ahead of the quarterly grain storage report. Wet harvest pattern. Some quality issues being factored in. Weather Premium Bullish real with elections coming up. Dairy market outlook & triple digit losses in the cattle.
Arlan Suderman of INTL FC Stone talks the grains mixed closed, the Feds interest rate hike, and if Mexico is a possible pass through buyer of US soybeans for China.
Higher corn & beans lower on the wheat. What are the yields, what’s the driving force in the price. End users that want to get covered. What are the opportunities for marketing of corn & soybeans. On farm off farm, re-ownership selling off the combine. What’s going on the Chinese negotiations. Livestock COF & cold storage negative. Strong hog market from the cash & the cutout.
More Swine Fever in Northern China-how has the markets reacted to more cases found. Tariff’s increased this morning. Hog market has been a wild ride. Peak harvest picking up-weather could slow it down a bit. Normal “Harvest” sideways markets. Stock numbers looking forward. Crop production numbers not out till Oct. 11. Wheat needs to see a pick up in U.S. demand. We need to look beyond the small bubble for harvest.
Lots of weather moving through the Midwest. Beans give back a bit. We reversed higher in both corn & beans. Rejected some trade under $300 in the meal. At or near contact lows on the meal. Good week when all was said in done for the grains. Trade is up in the air. Need to get to work on China. Export sales report on beans show we are selling to many directions and some we don’t normally sell to. A lot of volatility in the hog markets. Some rebound in the cash. Swine Flu. A lot of supply within the U.S. Natural hedge levels in the Dec Hogs.
What’s going on in the markets-seasonal trends…replacements & technical. Weather, harvest pressure.
Sue Martin with Ag & Investment talks about the positive day grains had and even some surprising soybean export news. Martin also breaks down the cattle trade and why they may be due for some volatility.
Why are the corn and soybean markets so weak today? Chinese Trade update. What impact is Chinese Trade Dispute having on the markets? Talk about corn and soybean exports. Discuss Informa Acres. What do we do with unsold old and new crop corn and soybeans.
Limit up day on the cattle. Swine effected by hurricane slow down for packers. Early harvest underway in NE & KS. Quiet day in the corn trade. Soybean basis could get more pressure. Big crops get bigger. Where did we start this marketing year. Seasonal non-seasonal pattern.
Crunch time of harvest & harvest pressure. Domino's of which we are in-we make some kind of a low & then to decide how big the crop is and where we need to go. Renewed talk with China-This could be the time the deal is struck. Elections in Brazil. Like grains this isn’t a good time to be looking for good prices for dairy. NAFTA-dairy would see some big benefits.
Pre Report Day African Swine Flu Weather reactions with hurricane moving into the Carolina's
Pre-report feeling in the market place, bounce in the wheat market-may be pre-report related. African Swine Fever & its effects on the markets.
December KC wheat down 37 cents for the week-those bushels are already in the bin, but corn & beans not harvested yet but to the upside. Any early harvest pressure or weather concerns. Next week’s report how will that effect the trade going into next week. Strong ethanol use. Seasonal tendencies for the grains & livestock. Look at the cattle trade. Have a risk management plan.
What do yields estimates look like going into next weeks report?
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What has the harvest progress been like in the US so far?
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What does the recent weather look like it is doing to the crop?
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Talk about Ethanol demand for corn.
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How has the corn and soybean export demand been this summer?
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Discuss Fapri acres forecast for corn, soybeans, and wheat?
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Talk about the African Swine Fever and what could mean for US pork exports
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Discuss the July’s beef and pork exports.
Negative numbers are in the red…all about trade wars causes funds to sell the ags. Normal time of year when focus is on the supply side. Harvest delay is more a basis factor-delaying the size of the crops. Many counting on the new crop being delivered. Localize pushes. China says going to hold off buying U.S. crops-how much is that truth or trade war talk. African Swine Fever in China-does that mean a push to get this trade war talk taken care of. Cattle prices related to swine fever. Smaller slaughter last week.
Corn & beans higher, wheat took a drop on Russia passing on exports. Bigger picture of special report on currency crisis. Grain prices to the “unknowns”. Best vehicle to bring China to the table is the African Swine Flu & the need to feed their people.
A down day in the markets. Positive cattle day but overall a pretty negative day. Its that time of year going into harvest. First notice day.
Positive grain numbers today-mostly because of wheat & Russian export tax. Trade with Mexico & the African Swine Fever China
How has the announcement on the trade deal with Mexico effect the markets? How does Canada fits into the trade deal with Mexico? Aid announcement on tariffs for farmers have much of an impact on the grain markets? The latest on trade with China? How will the trade deal with Mexico impact pork prices?
Another drop in the grains today. Trump & NAFTA announcement with Mexico. Good news for the hog industry with limit up trade, will be good for corn as well. But harvest pressure and new month will all be factored in to the trade.
Descending cash cattle market, maybe a supply imbalance in the north. Up day on cash. NAFTA & Mexico Grains dominated by pro farmer crop tour underway
Grains trending lower. Harvest lows, harvest pressure. “Kinda nice to have a norm” in the recent market trade. Trade, Trump & dollar makes up the grain trade. Preparedness for dairy operations. African Swine Fever effecting the markets
Crop tour continues to be a topic of conversation-a reason for lower prices. Do we or do we not have a NAFTA agreement. Chinese delegation is in Washington DC
Lower grains again today. Pro Farmer Crop tour underway. How much do you factor in these numbers. Marketing into this new crop market.
Pro Farmer Crop Tour is underway. Rains hitting many areas of the Midwest INCLUDING some area’s of Missouri. Talks & negotiations with China & the work on NAFTA & Mexico are all weighing in on the markets. Hogs struggled in the markets today moving into negative trade.
Wheat market-Russia had called a meeting of exporters out of the country-price pressure on the cattle feeders & millers in Russia that is giving the government some heartburn-could that mean export restrictions. Soybeans finished ok considering how they reacted to the strength in the wheat-next week’s meeting with China could be weighing in on the trade. Hogs see another higher day as work continues on talks of NAFTA.
Why are markets higher today? Tariffs with China and soybean trade US and world weather( Yields) Crop Tours – ProFarmer Midwest Crop Tour. What do you think happens with China on Tariffs? Are you concerned with the new crop soybean demand? Does the new crop corn demand look good to you? Limit up hog trade.
Drop in the grains with double digit drop in the soybeans. Corn effected by outside markets, stock down hard. Rush to safety & held. Bears have the momentum for the soybeans to prove the bulls wrong. NAFTA-are we close? Could world prices go higher for wheat? Tight trade for the cattle.
Grains finish to the higher. How is it 4-6% more cattle on feed month to month, but it’s the middle of August steer slaughter is less then a year ago. More heifers then bull calves? For the north could we see more numbers coming. Cash developing early tight numbers in KS…good boxed beef numbers. Hogs could still use a little help…NAFTA? Grain report of last week not very bearish for corn but beans some crazy numbers with market showing some resilience.
Corn & Wheat lower, while soybeans gain on the day. Good news for beans overnight & reached support on August & November beans. Weather forecast looks mild over the next couple of days. Corn & beans purchased by Mexico. A low could be set in the hogs.
USDA sees record corn yield in today’s WASDE report. Grains lower today in reaction to the numbers & crop conditions report is now behind us. Beans & corn with a lot of vegetation. Hogs finished the week with maybe a bottom in place. Livestock react to WASDE
Lower grains…crop report out tomorrow. How will the markets react? Is China wanting back in the market? Triple losses in the live cattle but a limit to the positive for the hogs.
Arlan Suderman, INTL FC Stone, discuses the key items to watch for in Friday's reports. Suderman also breaks down how global trade policy affects US commodities.
Report due out on Friday. China going to buy not going to buy. Weather from an international standpoint. Dollar influence. Wheat market continues to be a market leader. Latest happenings in the dairy industry. Volatility in the livestock market
Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics, talks about wheat's higher day and why it may be close to a top. Zuzolo also looks at the latest CFTC report and what ag producers should be considering for their marketing options.
Volatility in the wheat market…Ukraine news caused a give back in some of the gains. Good day in the beans despite all the trade issues. Soybeans are almost un-tradeable with headline news. Concerns of extended forecast with August. Another up week in corn strong world fundamentals. Informa numbers released today. Tough week for the hogs to trade…weighed down by cash markets. Cattle given continued underlining cash strength up a couple of dollars yet this week.
Corn & wheat higher while beans traded lower for a Thursday. Pushed a limit move in the wheat & part to come from talk in Ukraine. Beans at a loss over the China deal. Livestock is seeing money move around until we see some cash trade. Hogs are sickening
Darin Fessler of Lakefront Futures discusses the strong close feeder cattle posted. Fessler also looks to outside market factors and weather for the mixed close on grains.
Green on the screen for the grains. Tariff issues continue & negations how that is affecting the market. 6-10 day forecast. Funds doing some short coverings. Seasonal move that is underway for grains. Corn is up 38 cents on the December contract. Soybeans up 96 cents since July 16th. Sept KC Wheat up 91 cents. Cattle tumble with grain positives. Looking at charts with a reversal last Thursday
Wheat leadership is back today. Could it lead us up another leg. Weather models are turning hot in some areas. Effects of the trade on the markets. Hogs…we can’t go lower. Sluggish cash cattle trade
Cattle market-Brad is more bearish then the market has been trading. Largest Cattle On Feed-market has been resilient. A market that has felt like its all over the board, but its been running in place. Cattle usually sensitive to uncertainty-they have been the one to stay above the fray. Hogs have had some serious struggles. Is there more to come? Trying to catch a falling piano. Corn came back from the old lows...watch the wheat with weather & crop problems. EU buying beans & the market reaction this week.
Corn & soybeans are higher, lower wheat. Cooler weather over the next 10 days. Grains & hogs waiting on a tariff decision. Some chart history showing market trends.
Arlan Suderman, of INTL FC Stone, discusses the factors behind today's near limit up settlement in wheat. Suderman also breaks down the possible strategies between the US and China in their trade scuffle.
Eric Krueger, Smart Yield, discusses how the news of possible tariff relief rallied soybeans. Krueger also looks at market fundamentals like crop progress, early yields and recent livestock reports.
Tighter Global Wheat Supply. Soybean Crusher collapse as China sees some tightening. Markets worried in the future's market of a meat glut after the cold storage report. Hot seat with NAFTA & the EU...if we don't get something done we may be wondering if market can hold up. Lack of buyer support for hogs.
Technical in corn & beans…yield numbers …up day. Weather cooler for pod filling & a slow down in spring wheat development. Marketing when we don’t know when the trade wars will end. Hogs continue to be hit on.
Jeff Peterson, Heartland Farm Partners, discusses how the high in the 2018 US Dollar Index and 2018 low in the Chinese Yuan affect the grain market. Peterson also goes over marketing options for the current market conditions.
Another day of positive grain prices. Crop ratings of Monday were a wake up call…can’t bank on the fundamentals on how low we have come. Crop ratings are still above average but there is still vulnerable. Trade war continues to weigh in on the markets. Sea of China of holding up trade deal? Canada & its trade effects. Increased trade in the cattle.
Green on the screen for corn today. 6 cents off of last weeks close so far in corn. Maybe a summer correction heading our way? Crop ratings from the USDA significant for trade. A bit weaker then anticipated. Rains in Nebraska but not else ware…pollination time underway. Be ready to take advantage of the grain moves…move that old crop. Technical look at cattle live up a bit but feeders down.
Green on the screen for beans, crude oil thoughts for fall Weather concerns for the crops, weekly export numbers & trade visits to Texas & Kansas. Cattle prices going higher vs. lower. A look at the cash side going into this week.
Lower corn & soybeans while wheat trades higher. Are beans going to bounce with a low put in during August. Following the pattern of 1978 for both corn & beans. Good cash market last week…running a discount to the August futures. Still seeing struggles in the hogs-pork is cheap
Zane Abner with Tredas talks why there was green on the screen with a mixed WASDE. Zane also touches on outside market jitters, livestock and marketing strategies.
Soybeans dropped. New contract lows for corn & beans. Crude oil down. Damage being done to commodity indices charts as well. We are pushing prices lower then justified. Bearish -painful for producers but down prices increase demand for a product. Pork more vulnerable to trade with Mexico then corn or beans
Great day for beans! 6th of July-tariff issues, some buying in the trade. Softer corn exports. Global weather concerns in Brazil, Russia. Higher numbers traded late in the day on the cattle.
Tariffs Do the current prices reflect the tariffs going in place? U.S. and World Weather. Demand for U.S. corn & soybeans. Factors effecting hog market & current cattle trade.
Green on the screen today! You might not think there is nothing you can do about this market…but there is. Worries about the July 6th market trade day. Struggles in the hog market…
Not a good day for the markets. Soybeans tried to come back but still finished lower with the July 6th looming on the calendar. Holiday in the mid-week. Wheat took a hit on the trade today local & global weather are part of the factors. Cattle continues to move higher. Sharp losses in the hog complex. Tariffs is the biggest factor all the way across the board with uncertainties in stocks, grains, livestock.
Grains traded higher, before beans closed lower after a wild trade day for Friday. All about the weather & tariff’s. A report that usually comes with bated breath, but nothing terrible came of the numbers. HRW took a jump along with the rest of the wheat with trouble in Europe. Quarterly Stocks report-for corn what does that mean for feed demand…higher stocks on corn. Demand on new crop soybeans. Good day for livestock, nice to talk something positive on the hogs, but there are hurdles with tariffs looming.
Another low day in the grain markets. Weather, exports, Planting Intention & Stocks report on Friday & trade are all factors working into this grain market. Exports right now seeing some solid numbers. Can soybeans avoid the tariff increase July 6th.
More rain moving across the Midwest…upcoming prospective planting. Bean exports…growing this crop. A lot of negativity built into the market with USDA reports looming on Friday. Light cattle trade…still bearish on the cattle. Holiday trade mid-week. Moving more cattle to market early due to dryer pastures to the south. Hog fundamentals having a hard time separating from the trade news.
Weather related factors for the corn. Lower soybeans & wheat…did recover some because of the meal market…warmer weather is moving in that will bring stress to the crops. An Olive Branch from China to other Asian countries. Cattle market on the quieter side of the trade.
Don talks about the drop in soybeans, expected slip in soybeans but holding steady on the corn in the weekly crop progress report, continued trade concerns, wheat harvest issues and the 186,000 metric ton purchase of beans by an unknown. Limit down action in the meats today with the trade concerns, cattle on feed effecting the trade.
Soybeans end with some double digit gains. Look back on the week. How do we move forward with the corn. What do we need to look at going forward…prospective planting report out a week from today. Brazil trucker strike continues…where could the world turn for their supply. A neutral cattle with some cash taking place
Clint looks to the positive market factors that helped wheat and corn close in the green. Clint also looks at how much down side is there still in the soybeans and is a cap starting to form on cattle.
Green on the screen for grains…dead cat bounce in the trade on a Wednesday. Can’t be surprised by a market bounce. Good rains, some places to heavy. Corn doesn’t want to go down but struggles to move up. Could be an interesting report a week from Friday. Trade how much is blamed for the market trade. South American Trucker Strike…not good news for China with trying to buy beans. Cattle market readies itself for a cattle on feed report due out on Friday, also some limited long term direction & hogs had some lower limit down trade on the day.
Beans rebound a bit but still finish lower. Tough day for beans-but still priced competitive, corn traded positive for a part of the day. Low in place? Weekly Crop Report. The numbers are not as bad as they were a year ago on grain prices. Cattle closed to triple digits. Cattle on Freed report due out on Friday…could be a quiet report. Buyers backing away a bit today on the hog market.
Cattle market was a surprising day with the stronger cash market of late Friday, Monday morning show lists are much bigger-could see some lower money later this week. Decent stronger numbers are encouraging. But expect demand to see a decrease. Hogs finally had some good news with a look into the late fall-use this rally to get some marketing done. Grains for the most part have seen some good growing conditions, but beans broke a $1.30. Seeing some corn buying. Beans took a drop…is there hope? Rains are spotty all over the Midwest.
Shawn Hackett of Hackett Financial Advisers talks about China's trade retaliation and the week's strong volatility. Plus cattle's rally to end in the green and dairy.
Another down day in the grains markets…we knew they were coming but not ready to accept it. To the point when trade would say we have problems with trade. Short Covering in cattle, meal & HRW. Why are hogs not moving lower with the meal? Mexico-they are still taking our pork.
Big drop in the soybeans & wheat…a lot to learn over the past couple of days. Big gain yesterday in corn with a slight drop today. EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt is traveling the Midwest, what does that mean for the corn market & ethanol? The wheat harvest continues from the south with not so positive yield numbers. Cattle prices have seen pressure in the feeder complex. Hogs see some positive trade.
Bullish corn demand driven market with tariff talks & fears…could we loose demand? Trade talks/NAFTA & its effects on the markets. USDA’s WASDE report. Harvest pressure for the wheat. Waiting on the cash development for the cattle.
Don talks about not a pretty picture in the grains with a dramatic kick to the downside. Dominate issue is weather & trade. The funds that were long in the market figuring out what to do. Is the top in the market? Look for cash cattle to pick up later in the week. Don also highlights what current outlook is for the hog market.
Darin talks about beans & corn the struggles weather still in charge! Strong trade for the feeders. Hogs working towards a strong finish, but still dealing with looming trade issues.
Adam talks about crop damage, progress & its market effects, wheat harvest & weather threats. Hurdles of cattle.
Arlan talks about the drop in the corn & beans. Heat is good for the corn. Wheat harvest is underway. Not good in some areas. Eb & flow of fund support for the commodities with pressure of late. A listener question on trade & how its viewed & effecting the markets. How Mexico's recent tariff's are being seen by the pork markets.
Some follow through from corn & wheat…not so much in the beans. China & the recent talks of the past couple of days will increase purchases. Dollars effects on the markets. Crop ratings-where does it go from here? New crop corn & soybeans usually see their highs around this time. Risk management-now is the time to focus on cash sales & 90% of the time the best marketing times over the next 6-8 weeks.
Mike talks about the drop in the grain markets. Is it over? Early June time period we see some selling & walking away from the grains. Russia’s wheat & China’s corn drought being ignored. Some rains might hit Australia. US & European model difference. Prices at the river tough with high freight rates.
Brad talks about the volatile week in the cattle market with one limit up day. Boxed beef could have a big sell off…50,000 less cattle contracts in June. Hogs bullish cash & product working higher. Record crop ratings for corn. Weather a big factor for the grains…some areas too wet to finish beans.
Late May “Normal” with bearish thoughts in the crop. Big problem in Russia with the drought Corn crop some of the best ratings since 1994…Mexico Tariff list set to be released…its effect on the livestock market. So many issues up in the air with the tariff talks between the U.S. & China & NAFTA Talks. California Dairy is in crash mode.
Free fall in prices, tariff talks, USDA Crop Progress Report, The dollar and the effects of the EU & Italy. Cash cattle trade coming out of the south at some higher numbers...triple digest gains in the cattle.
Red on the screen for the grains. Volatile world & U.S. Weather stock market down & dollar up. 180 reversals on tariffs with China. Double tops on corn of last week & an outside day today…did we miss the boat on selling? Funds are long corn. Triple digit losses in the cattle.
Heading into a holiday weekend...Positives in the markets. Cattle close strong after cattle on feed report. Profitable opportunities for grain & livestock producers.
PJ talks about heading into the holiday weekend & an early release on the Cattle on Feed Report tomorrow.
Wheat kicked in…corn looks good-but watch outside markets such as tariff talks on steel & other issues coming back on the U.S. Will we have to wait until after June hogs close to see $80?
Sam Hudson of Cornbelt Marketing talks about the latest news from China on trade and what needs to happen to keep the bull market fed.
The wheat market pulled the corn & beans along in the trade. Outside market influences included the trade discussions, weather and the dollar. Cattle had a slower Friday, but some action in the feeder market.
Troy talks on the lower corn & beans, wheat was the positive. NAFTA fundamental reason & bull market needs to be fed. Tariff issues with China. Technically still in an uptrend in the markets. Weather premiums starting to get built into the row crops.
Soybean market collapse, Corn lower with the flow of the bean market, wheat hangs on. Struggles in the livestock trade. How trade discussions is effecting the movement in the grains & livestock.
Shawn talked about the prospects for the U.S. & northern hemisphere growing season…a lot of catch up happening around the U.S. Strong dollar having its effects on the trade New highs in the dairy prices Calif Reduction in dairy
Big trade week…deadline for NAFTA in D.C. is this Thursday. More meetings this week with China. Cattle took a hit today.
Kent Beadle Director of Risk Consulting Services with CHS Hedging & Russell Consulting Group talks about the second day of red following the USDA report. Kent also touches on delayed planting and Chinese trade threats.
Brad talks about the recent activity in the cattle market, the struggles of hogs & market reaction to the WASDE report
Pre USDA report day...Outside market influence more positive then inside, weather & planting progress. Drop in the cattle market
Down beans…see what tomorrow brings, Meal the biggest driver…buying oil back, China trade relations, Stronger dollar and cheaper rèal, Thursday crop report & afternoon crop progress report
Down markets BUT corn & wheat had a good week. Beans stuck because of china & meal numbers Cash cattle stay supportive Demand pick up and fast...cattle going green to lots quicker…why?
Sue talks about the jump in the soybean market, the Kansas Wheat Quality Tour, the outside market influence on both the grain & livestock.
Arlan Suderman of INTL FC Stone discusses the impact of the wheat tour and the Federal Reserve's Report on the markets.
Mike talks about wheat crop tour, extremes in the markets from the dollar to the stock market how does that effect the market trade
New big story Russia & Ukraine crop & their involvement in the wheat market-drought corn & soybeans planting crop report...Dairy market is taking off…not only here in the U.S. strength in cheese & powder…more room to run & lock into prices
Kent talks about trading the soybean market with all the influences from slow planting, to port shutdowns. Nice close for the cattle with the exact opposite for the hogs.
Eric talks on the U.S. dollar trending higher for the past month or so, Fundamental in the corn acres, Premium to the cash market for April , cattle market has some big supplies ahead
Arlan talks about the rains in the Midwest-still behind normal...Jump in wheat has been reports of farmers splitting stems and finding freeze damage ahead of the crop tour next week. The Rosario port damage from a freighter hitting terminal six.
PJ talks about the lower beans, wheat & hogs..higher corn & cattle. The dollar moving higher, planting progress and the works of the export market.
Shawn talks about some tops in the grain market, slow go to the planting season. Major bottoms in the livestock along with dairy demand numbers
Sue talks on the outside influences into the soybean market, the delay in planting & the higher cattle trade.
Mike talks about trade issues with China on sorghum & beans, the progress of planting & the work of the cattle & hog market.
Troy talks about lower grains, corrective action in the corn, seasonal tendencies in the corn & beans, marketing suggestions ahead of the full swing of planting season. Cattle struggles in the trade.
Sam highlights the delay in planting & more snow on the way...could that bring an acre switch. Slow cattle sales and any day the hogs are positive, its a good day.
Arlan Suderman of INTL FC Stone talks about why the Bull may be getting tired behind grains and why the weather factor isn't the only story in the wheat market.
Kent Beadle Director of Risk Consulting Services with CHS Hedging & Russell Consulting Group breaks down the WASDE report and the spreads in the ag markets.
Darrin Fessler of Lakefront Futures discusses the week's volatile market due to trade politics and weather. Darrin also discusses how producers can take advantage of the current market times.
Eric Kruger of Smart Yield talks about the high volatility following the overnight announcement of Chinese tariff's on US Soybeans.
Arlan talks on wheat being the market leader, pulling corn up, trade for both grain & livestock. Another down day for the hogs & higher for the cattle.
Sue talks about the after effects of the Thursday reports, limited down hogs and the struggle ahead this week for the cattle.
Mike Zuzolo of Global Commodity Analytics talks about how the USDA stocks and planting report was able to rally the grains and what this means for future trade.
Arlan talks about Pre-report day, lower grains, rainfall in the plains, wet situation in the Delta Mid-South & a wetter pattern for the Eastern U.S. Volatility in the livestock
Shawn talks about the holding pattern for the grains ahead of the Thursday report, the light at the end of the tunnel for the dairy industry along with the lower trades we have seen as of late in the livestock.
Darin talks about the volatility of he markets with all the trade talk and fears surrounding China.
Kent talks about the market reaction to the tariff discussion with China. Drop in the hog market and the higher turn around in the cattle.
Sue talks about a smaller version of the Turnaround Tuesday. Weather, planting, trade & cattle.
Arlan talks about the overall down day we had in the markets from grains, to livestock, to stocks. Weather in the U.S. has become more of a high priority then weather in South America.
Jeff Peterson Heartland Farm Partners talks the trade from South American Weather and South American soybeans. Plus how markets have changed year to year and what producers need to do to adapt to the change.
Shawn talks about the time for pause...a corrective period in the markets. The hit in the wheat market, exports & triple digit loss in the cattle trade.
Arlan talks about the bearish reversal in the soybeans, the strength in the wheat & the forecast for wheat this spring. Weather not only for grains but the effects its having on the southern cattle.
Aaron talks about the higher corn & beans, struggles for the wheat, outside market influences including China & tariffs.
Troy talks on the seasonality of grain markets, risk management plans, China & the concerns of tariff's & the effects it will have on the soybeans.
Brad Kooima talks the livestock trade and why grains saw the big sell off a day after the USDA supply and demand report.
Sue talks about WASDE report, weather in Argentina & stressful weather on the plains. Cattle has some frustrations.
Eric talks of the lower day in the grains, Thursday Crop Report, weather U.S. crop, weak hogs and movement of cattle.
Jeff Peterson Heartland Farm Partners looks at the technical points in soybeans and wheat. Plus what the current tariff talk could do to the US soybean trade.
Eric Krueger talks about the USDA outlook numbers, how the beans are being fed by the weather, hogs are higher then last week.
Arlan Suderman talks about weather in Argentina, weather in the southern part of the U.S. lower cattle prices.
Mike Zuzolo talks today about the $10.40 ceiling in soybeans, the crop issues in South America and some higher hogs...
Brad Kooima talks about the stellar week in the cattle market, PED concerns from other countries, dryness in the southern U.S. along with global weather.
Arlan Suderan talks about the dollar & its role in the trade today, rally in the beans & meal.
Mike Zuzolo talks about beans going over $10.15 and hedging, weather and the cattle market
Sue Martin talks on the higher beans, drier weather in Argentina, wheat & cattle coming to life.
Sue Martin talks about the stock market, outside market influence in the cattle and the day after the WASDE report.
Aaron Bertels talks about the WASDE report, weather in South America & the wide range in the cattle trade.
Arlan Suderman talks about the Thursday USDA report, the rally in the grain markets & the lower livestock trade.
Darin Fessler, Lakefront Futures, is Tuesday's guest on the Final Bell. Volatility in outside markets come into play as soybeans rally sharply and he's not getting too bearish yet with cattle.
Dac Wedemeyer talked on the variety of weather factors, outside market influences and trends in the cattle.
Arlan Suderman talks about the resilience in corn in the Thursday trade, rain in Argentina has backed off & a nice turnaround in the cattle.
Fresh news from Argentina on crop progress, to much rain in Brazil, winter wheat...could there be a stealing of acres.