Grain Markets and Other Stuff: Recent Episodes
Joe Vaclavik
Joe Vaclavik discusses the grain markets, the business of farming, news related to agriculture, and a variety of other topics.
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🌾 Ukraine grain exports could plunge as Russian attacks on Odesa disrupt Black Sea shipments, with the ag ministry slashing its export estimate 54% to 29.6mmt. 📦 Storage bins could be full by November, leaving an 11mmt shortfall as alternative routes through Romania can't fully replace Odesa's capacity.
📈 Wheat futures bounced back Friday, with Chicago Sep26 up nearly 9 cents to $6.40/bu and KC Sep26 up 14 cents to $7.14/bu on a weaker dollar and Black Sea worries. 🌽 Corn held mostly steady while soybeans slipped despite China ramping up US purchases, with traders positioning ahead of Wednesday's USDA report.
🌧️ This week's forecast looks favorable for the Corn Belt, with rain chances across the central and eastern regions offering relief from recent heat. The hot, dry western Corn Belt should trend cooler and wetter by week's end, though rainfall may stay uneven in spots.
💰 CFTC data shows managed money added 18k corn contracts for the week ending August 4, pushing the net long to 145k contracts, the biggest since late May. 📉 Funds were net sellers of 28k soybean contracts and 17k SRW wheat contracts on the week.
🛳️ USDA flash sales Friday: 238,000mt (9mil bu) of soybeans sold to China for 2026/2027 delivery. 🇲🇽 Corn sales to Mexico totaled 286,097mt (11mil bu), split between the 2026/2027 and 2027/2028 marketing years.
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🌽🔥 North Dakota Drought & Crops — North Dakota is baking through a hot, dry July with record triple-digit heat and worsening drought, and it's hitting crops hard: corn dropped to 50% good-to-excellent (from 61%) and soybeans fell to 46% (from 52%). Relief may be on the way, with better rain chances and more seasonal temps expected in August. 🌾
🗺️ US Drought Monitor Update — Heavy rain eased drought across parts of the Corn Belt (central/NW Indiana, SE Kentucky, N Illinois, NW Minnesota, SE Wisconsin), but dry pockets in Michigan, Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois saw conditions worsen. The Plains stayed hot, with drought deepening in North Dakota, western Nebraska, central Kansas, and eastern Oklahoma despite some relief in the Dakotas/Nebraska. 🌵
📈 Grain Futures Recap — Corn (Dec26) ticked up 2¢ to $4.62/bu on short covering, though Corn Belt rain forecasts kept a lid on gains. Soybeans (Nov26) climbed 3¢ to $11.78/bu on fresh Chinese demand, while wheat slipped despite Black Sea shipping uncertainty. 💹
🇨🇳🫘 China Soybean Buying Spree — China snapped up another 122,000mt of US soybeans for 2026/27 delivery, bringing its flash-sale total to ~2.5mmt over the past month. Buying is ramping up ahead of Xi Jinping's expected US visit, with chatter that sorghum and barley purchases could be next. 🤝
📦 US Export Sales — Corn sales tumbled to a marketing-year low of 116,700mt, down 68% week-over-week, with South Korea leading purchases. Soybean sales also hit a marketing-year low at just 32,200mt (Indonesia the top buyer), while wheat held steadier at 296,400mt led by the Philippines. 🚢
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🌍 Global Food Prices Set to Climb 📈 The UN warns food prices could start rising by year-end and accelerate into 2027, driven by conflicts in Iran/Ukraine pushing up oil, diesel, gas, and fertilizer costs. 🌦️ El Niño threatens crop yields in key growing regions, and while consumers haven't felt it yet, higher commodity costs typically take 3-6 months to hit grocery shelves.
🌽 Corn & Soybeans Slide Again 📉 Dec26 corn dropped ~6 cents to $4.60/bu and Nov26 soybeans fell 3 cents to ~$11.75/bu as favorable rain forecasts across the Corn Belt pressured prices, with StoneX projecting a yield above USDA's estimate. 🌾 Wheat bucked the trend and closed higher on renewed Black Sea shipping concerns tied to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
🏛️ Farm Bureau Pushes for Senate Aid Approval 💰 AFBF President Zippy Duvall is urging the Senate to pass the House's budget resolution, which includes $12 billion in economic aid for farmers and ranchers. 🚜 The relief won't fully cover recent losses, but comes as producers battle rising costs, inflation, and weak commodity prices — on top of an estimated $44.3 billion in government payments already expected this year.
🚢 Flash Sale Alert: Corn Export Sold 🌽 USDA reported 120,000mt (5 million bushels) of corn sold to exporters on Wednesday. 📦 30,000mt ships in the 2026/27 marketing year, with the remaining 90,000mt slated for 2027/28 delivery.
⛽ Ethanol Production Dips, Margins Hold Strong 📊 Weekly ethanol output fell 2.3% week-over-week to 1.11 million barrels/day, though it's up 1% year-over-year, while stocks slipped to 24.52 million barrels. 💪 Despite the dip, Corn Belt ethanol margins remain healthy, running 10-40 cents positive per Reuters data.
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🌽 StoneX Crop Estimates — StoneX pegged the national corn yield at 184.8bpa (16.16bil bu), above USDA's 183.0bpa, while soybeans came in at 53.0bpa (4.47bil bu), just above USDA's last call. 📊 USDA updates its own numbers on August 12, so all eyes are on that report next.
📉 Grain Markets Slide — Corn (Dec26) and soybeans (Nov26) both closed lower Tuesday, pressured by falling crude oil on Iran diplomacy hopes and better August rain chances across the Corn Belt. 🌦️ Wheat also slipped despite ongoing Black Sea shipping chaos.
🇨🇳 Another China Soybean Flash Sale — USDA confirmed a fresh 132,000mt soybean sale to China for the 2026/2027 marketing year. 🔥 That's the third flash sale to China in just the past week.
⚓ Black Sea Export Crisis — Russian strikes near Odesa have shipowners suspending calls, choking off Ukraine's grain export routes and crushing local prices by ~30%. 🚂 Rail/road/river alternatives won't hit meaningful capacity until late August, and even then only handle about half the usual volume — risking 30mmt+ in lost exports.
📈 Farmer Sentiment Rebounds — Purdue/CME's Ag Economy Barometer jumped to 126 in July from 113 in June, though still below last year's 135. 💰 High input costs remain the top worry, but optimism about future export markets persists.
🏭 ADM Raises Guidance — ADM hiked its profit outlook again after a strong Q2, powered by biofuels policy tailwinds and a 129% surge in Ag Services & Oilseeds profit. 🚀 Shares rose 2%+ on the day and are up 38% YTD, while the S&P 500 also closed at a fresh record high.
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🌽 Corn conditions slipped for a third straight week to 61% good-to-excellent, falling below the five-year average as hot, dry weather raised yield concerns. 📉 Dec26 futures rallied Monday, gaining ~9 cents to close near $4.73/bu on crop stress and a strong wheat rally.
🌱 Soybean ratings held steady at 63% good-to-excellent, just above the five-year average, while futures pushed higher on crop concerns and fresh export demand. 🇨🇳 USDA confirmed flash sales of 488,000mt to China and 136,150mt to unknown destinations for 2026/2027 delivery, following reports of 14-16 cargoes purchased by Chinese buyers last week.
🌾 Spring wheat conditions improved to 55% good-to-excellent, topping the five-year average, and winter wheat harvest reached 86% complete, right in line with normal pace. ⚔️ Wheat futures surged on continued Black Sea attacks and news that US-Iran peace talks were called off.
🏡 US farmland values kept climbing in 2026, with average farm real estate up 3.4% to $4,500/acre and cropland hitting a record $6,020/acre. 📊 Growth has cooled from last year's pace, but Corn Belt land remains the priciest in the country at $8,590/acre on average.
🚜 CNH expects the farm machinery market to rebound in 2027 as aging equipment from the profitable 2022-2023 years drives replacement demand. 📈 Shares jumped Monday after the company raised its full-year outlook on better-than-expected Q2 earnings.
🚢 Corn export inspections hit an eight-week high at 1.9mmt, up 23% week-over-week and 45% year-over-year. 📦 Soybean and wheat inspections lagged behind last year's pace, with China absent from the week's soybean loadings.
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🌾 Grain Markets
Wheat futures fell sharply Friday as traders took profits after Thursday's Black Sea-driven rally. Corn and soybeans also finished lower, pressured by improving weather forecasts calling for widespread Corn Belt rainfall and cooler temperatures. 🌧️
🇨🇳 China Ramps Up Soybean Buying
China purchased at least 14 cargoes of US soybeans on Friday, marking its largest single-day buying spree of July. Traders expect more purchases ahead of trade talks later this fall, with China's new-crop commitments now nearing 3.9 million metric tons. 🚢🌱
📦 USDA Flash Sale
USDA also reported a flash sale of 252,000 metric tons (9 million bushels) of soybeans to an unknown destination for the 2026/27 marketing year. 📈
💰 Funds Turn More Bullish
Managed money funds were net buyers of 70,000 corn, 30,000 soybean, and 10,000 SRW wheat contracts last week. Net long positions in both corn and soybeans climbed to their highest levels since late May. 📊
🌱 Corteva Raises Outlook
Corteva raised its full-year profit forecast, citing strong demand across key crop markets. The company said increased soybean acreage should support seed sales, though fewer corn acres and higher input costs could weigh on crop protection demand later this year. 🌽➡️🫛
🛢️ Iran Talks Resume
US-Iran peace talks are set to resume today after President Trump called off a planned military strike in favor of diplomacy. Hopes for a deal, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz, sent WTI crude oil below $79 per barrel in early Monday trading. 🤝📉
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🌵 USDA's weekly Drought Monitor shows the worst conditions holding in Nebraska, South Dakota, Colorado, Oklahoma, and areas further west, with pockets also showing up in western Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and northern Illinois. 29% of US corn areas and 26% of soybean areas are now in drought, though overnight rain hit South Dakota/Nebraska and radar is active this morning over MN, IA, MO, and eastern KS. Maps below 👇
🌾 Grains were mixed Thursday as traders eye a wetter, cooler Corn Belt forecast for early August. Nov26 soybeans slid 4 cents to ~$11.89/bu, Dec26 corn dropped 3.25 cents to ~$4.69/bu, and wheat closed higher but gave back early gains tied to Black Sea military escalation. Charts below 📊
🇨🇳 China bought more US soybeans! USDA confirmed a flash sale of 132,000mt for the 26/27 marketing year, pushing China's new-crop purchases to 3.045mmt total against the White House's 25mmt/year target. Tracker below 📈
🏭 ADM is expanding its North American soy crush capacity at plants in Frankfort, IN, Deerfield, MO, Lincoln, NE, and Spiritwood, ND, mostly wrapping up by late 2028/early 2029. The upgrades add ~700,000 metric tons of annual crush capacity, translating to demand for well over 25 million bushels of US crops. 🌱
⛽ Senate Republicans are set to add permanent year-round E15 sales to the farm bill, with Ag Chair John Boozman scheduling markup for Aug. 6. It's a scaled-down version of the House's May bill built on a Fischer-Capito framework, but the overall farm bill still needs 60 votes with Democrats pushing back on SNAP cost-sharing changes. 🚜
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🌱 Soybean futures tumbled Wednesday as improving weather forecasts weighed on the market, with the Nov26 contract falling roughly 27 cents to settle near $11.93/bushel. Widespread rain is expected across much of the Corn Belt later this week, and corn followed soybeans lower with Dec26 down about 9 cents to $4.72/bushel.
🌾 Wheat futures are trading higher this morning amid escalating Black Sea tensions, after Reuters reported Ukrainian drones struck a grain export terminal at Russia's Taman port, causing significant damage. Ukraine also hit four Russian tankers in the Black Sea and Azov Sea, a notable development given Russia and Ukraine together account for nearly 30% of global wheat exports.
🚜 Safety nets are helping prevent another 1980s-style farm crisis, even as corn and soybean farmers face negative margins for a second straight year with 2026 costs pushed higher by the US-Iran war. Economists say crop insurance, federal programs, and lower debt levels are cushioning the blow, though relief will likely require higher commodity prices or lower input costs.
📈 Bunge raised its earnings outlook after a strong quarter fueled by its soybean business, with Q2 revenue surging 88% year-over-year to $24 billion. CEO Greg Heckman also flagged risk ahead, warning that fertilizer supply disruptions could hit Brazil's second corn crop and push some Argentine farmers to cut back on phosphate applications.
💧 Fertilizer prices kept sliding for a seventh straight week in late July, led by a 14% drop in UAN32 and an 11% decline in anhydrous, which fell below $1,000/ton for the first time since March. Most fertilizers remain pricier than a year ago, but two new plants under construction in Mexico could boost Latin American supply.
⛽ US ethanol production hit a 28-week high last week, climbing to 1.13 million barrels per day, up 3.6% week-over-week and 5.1% year-over-year. Stocks rose to 24.73 million barrels as margins stayed strong across the Corn Belt, ranging 10–35 cents positive per Reuters data.
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🌽 US corn is pollinating under intense heat and drought, with the western Corn Belt hit hardest and some yield damage likely irreversible even if weather improves. 🌙 Warm overnight temps in July and August could further chip away at yield potential.
📈 Corn and soybean futures rallied Tuesday after Monday's USDA crop progress report showed sharper-than-expected declines in crop conditions. 🌦️ The market brushed off cooler, wetter forecasts and softer crude oil prices to keep the rally going.
💵 USDA says farmers need another round of financial aid, pointing to the $12 billion proposed in the House budget resolution. ⛽ Officials also highlighted new biofuel mandates as a boost to ethanol/biodiesel demand and crop prices.
🔥 Western Europe is bracing for its fourth heat wave of the summer, with temps up to 108°F and over 1 million acres already burned. 🐄 The heat and fires are hammering crop yields, water supplies, and the livestock sector alike.
🚢 Black Sea shipping risks are escalating, with Russia weighing machine guns, anti-drone defenses, and armed escorts for grain vessels. 🌾 Major export terminals are restricting truck deliveries, pushing Sovecon to cut its Russian wheat export forecast by ~4%.
🇺🇳 USDA confirmed another flash sale, with 197,272mt of corn sold to unknown destinations for 2026/2027 delivery. 📊 The sale adds to recent momentum in export demand for the upcoming marketing year.
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🌽 Crop Conditions Slide as Corn Belt Bakes – US corn ratings fell to 63% good-to-excellent (down from 67%) and soybeans dropped to 63% (from 66%) as hot, dry weather hit the Corn Belt hard. 🌵 North and South Dakota are the biggest trouble spots, with corn there rated just 50% good-excellent across nearly 11% of US planted acres.
☀️ Driest July in Over a Decade—Corn country saw just 3.42" of rain in July, the lowest since 2014, paired with above-normal heat. 📉 Analysts warn trend yield is at risk unless August delivers timely rain and cooler temps.
🌾 European Wheat Pulls Back – Prices eased Monday as traders found Russia-Ukraine strikes hadn't seriously damaged key export terminals, while good harvest weather in Europe added pressure. ⚠️ Still, Ukraine pushed the UN Security Council for global action to protect Black Sea shipping routes.
📉 Corn & Soybeans Tumble Monday – Dec26 corn fell 14¢ to $4.74/bu and Nov26 soybeans dropped nearly 40¢ to $12.14/bu on easing oil prices and better weather outlooks. 🌾 Wheat also slipped, with Sep26 Chicago down 18¢ to $6.60 and Sep26 KC off 16¢ to $7.29.
🇨🇳 Fresh Soybean Sales to China—The USDA flashed a 132,000mt soybean sale to China plus another 126,000mt to unknown destinations, both for 2026/2027 delivery. 📊 Check out the China Soybean Purchase Tracker for the full picture.
🚢 Export Inspections Mixed – Corn shipments dipped 7.7% week-over-week to 1.5mmt, while soybeans rose 9.3% to 348,850mt (though still down 18% YoY). 🌾 Wheat stood out with a 72% weekly jump to 394,785mt, up 36% from last year.
🐄 Mexico Border Reopening Boosts Meatpackers—JBS and Tyson shares surged (+10% and +5.7%) after USDA announced a phased reopening of Mexican feeder cattle imports starting late August. 📉 Cattle futures tumbled in response, with many feeder contracts hitting daily limit-down.
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🌾 Grains Sell Off Hard — Wheat, corn, and soybeans all dropped sharply to start the week after wheat posted downside reversals Friday. Ukraine is pushing new ship-safety measures with Russia and has called a UN Security Council meeting over attacks on grain vessels.
🛢️ Mideast Tensions Ease, Oil Slides—The US and Iran paused military strikes over the weekend, sending WTI crude more than $6/bbl lower this morning even though it's still up ~15% over two weeks. That pressure is rippling across the whole commodity complex.
🔥 Heat Dome Locks In Over the Corn Belt — A stationary heat dome is pushing temps 10-15°F above normal with brutal humidity across the Plains and Corn Belt this week. A brief cooldown may show up later this week, and a shift toward rain in the forecast likely helped trigger this morning's selloff.
💰 House Passes $12B Farm Aid Package — The $95B budget resolution squeaked through 216-214, pairing farm aid with $73B in defense/Iran-war spending. Farm groups are cheering the aid, but the Senate still has to pass its own version before anything's final.
📊 Funds Pile Into Corn & Beans — The latest COT data shows managed money net buying 45k corn and 55k soybean contracts, pushing both net-long positions to their highest since early June. Wheat saw smaller buying too, with funds adding 16k SRW contracts.
🐄 Mexican Cattle Imports Set to Resume — The Douglas, AZ border crossing reopens to Mexican cattle August 24, with more ports to follow, after being closed since November 2024 over screwworm concerns. Disinfectant dip vats will screen all incoming cattle as the closest active case sits 325 miles away.
📈 Cattle Reports: Mostly Neutral — Friday's Cattle on Feed numbers landed right in line with expectations, so traders shrugged it off. The Cattle Inventory report was more mixed—a shrinking beef cow herd is bullish, but more replacement heifers lean neutral-to-bearish.
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🛢️ Oil prices surged Thursday, with WTI crude jumping 6.2% to $92.19/barrel after Houthi attacks on Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea raised concerns about global oil supplies. Higher crude prices are also pushing fuel costs higher, with the national average gasoline price climbing to $4.09/gallon. ⛽
🌽 Grain markets were mixed. Soybeans extended their rally, with November 2026 futures gaining about 5 cents on support from rising crude oil prices and forecasts for hotter Corn Belt weather next week. Corn added about 3 cents, while wheat turned lower after early gains as traders took profits despite ongoing Black Sea shipping disruptions. 📈
🚢 USDA announced a flash sale of 126,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2026/27 marketing year.
🌦️ Drought conditions worsened across parts of the Corn Belt and Northern Plains as hot, dry weather persisted. Conditions improved in Kentucky, but drought expanded in the Dakotas, northern Illinois, southeastern Minnesota, and southeastern Nebraska. South Dakota even declared a statewide drought emergency. Current drought coverage includes 20% of corn, 18% of soybeans, 47% of winter wheat, 25% of spring wheat, and 44% of U.S. cattle. 🌾
🌾 North Dakota's spring wheat crop is coming in below USDA expectations. Crop tour scouts estimate yields at 48 bpa, well below the USDA's 58 bpa forecast. While dry weather has reduced disease pressure, prolonged heat and limited rainfall have trimmed yield potential, and additional heat could lower yields further before harvest.
📊 Weekly export sales disappointed again. Corn sales totaled 13 million bushels, soybeans 2 million bushels, and wheat 11 million bushels, with all three commodities landing at or below trade expectations. Mexico was the top buyer of corn and wheat, while China was the largest soybean buyer.
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🚢 Russia restricts Novorossiysk port traffic — Russia has imposed overnight shipping restrictions (midnight–5am) at Novorossiysk, its largest grain export port, due to rising drone attack threats. Grain rerouted from the Sea of Azov is making the port even more critical, though daytime operations continue normally.
🌾 Wheat futures surge on Black Sea tensions — Chicago wheat jumped ~28 cents to $7.06/bu and KC wheat gained ~31 cents to $7.64/bu as Russian strikes hit Odesa region ports and infrastructure. Corn and soybeans also climbed on looming Corn Belt heat and rising freight insurance costs.
🇪🇺 EU grain production set to plunge—European grain output is projected to fall over 9% from last year, the steepest drop in two decades, as heat waves crush wheat and corn yields. Higher fertilizer/fuel costs from the US-Iran war pushed farmers to cut inputs and acreage, sending Paris wheat futures up ~20% this month.
🌱 ND wheat tour wraps up—Southern ND spring wheat scouted at 46 bpa (below last year's 50 but above the 5-yr average), while northwest/north-central areas came in stronger at 48 bpa. Acreage hit its lowest since 1969, with scouts surveying the fewest fields on record.
🛢️ Houthi attacks rattle oil markets — Yemen's Houthis claimed responsibility for strikes on two Red Sea oil tankers, sending WTI up ~3% to near $87/barrel. Trump threatened Iranian infrastructure if Strait of Hormuz attacks continue, and Iran vowed retaliation against US-linked energy facilities.
📊 CME downplays perpetual futures demand — CEO Terry Duffy said institutional clients (94% of volume) show little interest in never-expiring contracts, even as Kalshi pursues its own perpetual futures for precious metals. Duffy argued perps suit retail more than institutional hedging needs.
⛽ Ethanol production ticks up—weekly output rose to 1.09M bpd, up 5.2% week-over-week, while stocks grew to 24.48M barrels. Corn Belt margins stayed strong, running 10–35 cents positive per Reuters data.
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🌽 Iowa Weather & Crops — Warm, dry conditions gave Iowa farmers 6.7 days suitable for fieldwork last week, pushing corn and soybeans through key growth stages, though dry soil is becoming a concern as corn enters pollination. 🌧️ A more active pattern with widespread rain chances is on tap for the Corn Belt this week, though the GFS turned notably drier (and warmer) overnight vs. yesterday's run.
🌾 Wheat Rallies on Black Sea Tensions — Chicago wheat jumped ~9 cents to $7.33/bu and KC wheat gained 4 cents to $6.78/bu after Russia banned vessels from anchoring at two Sea of Azov ports. 🚢 Analysts already slashed Russia's July export forecast 25%, while ongoing strikes on Ukraine's Black Sea ports have cut its export capacity by roughly a third.
🇺🇸 Grassley Pushes Market Solutions — Senator Grassley says farmers need stronger markets over more government payments, backing year-round E15 as a bigger long-term fix than the proposed $11B aid package. 💰 He's also renewing calls to cut production costs, pointing to his Fertilizer Research Act and pressing the Trump administration on why Brazil's costs run so much lower.
📉 Sovecon Cuts Russian Wheat Forecast — Sovecon trimmed its 2026 Russian wheat estimate to 88.3mmt from 88.9mmt on weak southern yields, down from last season's 91.4mmt crop. ⚔️ The downgrade lands right as Black Sea shipping tensions heat back up.
🥇 Kalshi Eyes Metals Perpetuals — Kalshi has asked the CFTC to approve perpetual futures on gold, silver, and platinum, building on its May approval for crypto perps. ⚖️ CME is, meanwhile, suing over whether these "perpetual futures" are really just unregulated swaps, with Kalshi's bitcoin perp alone moving $31.5B in 24 hr volume.
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🌱 Soybeans surged to a two-month high near $12.26/bu as hot, dry Corn Belt weather and fresh Chinese buying fueled the rally. 🇨🇳 Renewed Chinese purchases appear to be the bigger driver, with US weather concerns playing a secondary role.
🌽 Corn futures added nearly 6 cents to settle around $4.73/bu, supported by weather worries even as a cooler forecast may cap further gains. 📦 USDA also confirmed fresh flash sales, including soybeans to China and unknown destinations plus corn to Colombia for 2026/2027 delivery.
🌾 Russian wheat export prices jumped 3% as Ukrainian drone attacks disrupted Black Sea shipping and cut July export forecasts by 25%. ⚓ Added tension in the Strait of Hormuz and a slower Russian harvest pace are compounding uncertainty over global wheat supplies.
📊 US corn conditions slipped slightly to 67% good-to-excellent while soybeans improved to 66%, both still running above their five-year averages. 🌤️ Spring wheat ratings fell to 53% good-to-excellent, but winter wheat harvest progress jumped to 74% complete, ahead of the average pace.
⛽ Gas and diesel prices keep climbing as the US-Iran conflict escalates, with regular gas now averaging $4.00/gallon and diesel at $5.11/gallon. 🛢️ WTI crude is up roughly 20% this month to $83.23/barrel, driven by shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.
🚢 Corn export inspections stayed strong at 1.5mmt, up 57% year-over-year, while soybean and wheat shipments both came in below expectations. 🇨🇳 China made up about 22% of last week's export inspections.
🇨🇦 The Trump administration plans a 50% tariff on select Canadian imports starting August 19, covering dairy, alcohol, and cement—even USMCA-exempt goods. 🤝 Canada is downplaying the threat as familiar posturing, while Mexico remains the top buyer of US corn amid the shifting trade landscape.
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🌾⚔️ Black Sea Grain War Escalates — Ukraine's strikes on Russian shipping and Russia's relentless attacks on Ukrainian ports have wiped out roughly a third of Ukraine's Black Sea export capacity. Wheat futures are exploding higher, with a deadly strike on a corn-carrying cargo ship near Odesa adding fuel to the fire. 📈🚢
🇨🇳🌱 China Keeps Buying US Beans — The USDA confirmed fresh flash sales Friday, including 340,000mt to China, 256,634mt to Mexico, and 110,000mt to unknown destinations, all for the 2026/2027 marketing year. Chatter suggests more Chinese purchases could drop this week, while US corn sales to China remain a no-show. 🛳️💰
🚜💸 Iowa Farmers Feel the Squeeze — A new report shows Iowa's ag economy shrank 53% from 2022-2024 as corn and soybean production costs surged 37% and 36%. Nearly 1 in 5 Iowa farms are now financially vulnerable, even with strong land values and record cattle profits cushioning the blow. 📉🌽
📊 Funds Flip More Bullish — The latest CoT report shows big money managers snapping up 26k corn, 6k soybean, and 26k SRW wheat contracts last week. Corn's net long hit its highest since early June, while wheat's net short shrank to its smallest since late May. 💹🐂
🔥🛢️ US-Iran Conflict Boils Over — A deadly weekend exchange pushed the US military death toll to 17, with strikes now hitting civilian infrastructure like ports and bridges. Iran has scrapped the interim peace deal and is threatening to choke off oil, gas, and fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. ⚓🚨
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🇺🇸🇧🇷 U.S.-Brazil Trade Tensions Escalate
🚨 The Trump administration announced 25% tariffs on many Brazilian imports, effective July 22, citing unfair trade practices. While beef, coffee, and energy products are exempt, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, and ethanol are not. A separate investigation could push tariffs on some Brazilian goods as high as 37.5%.
🇧🇷 Brazil is weighing a response but is avoiding tariffs for now. Instead, it is considering measures such as suspending patent protections for pharmaceutical products and agricultural seeds. President Lula has not yet approved the plan, and both countries remain open to negotiations, though the trade dispute could escalate.
🌽 Farm Financial Stress Continues
📉 U.S. farmers are expected to post a sixth straight year of losses in 2027. The American Farm Bureau Federation projects $32 billion in losses across major row crops, with corn, soybean, and wheat margins all expected to remain below breakeven.
💸 Weak crop prices and stubbornly high input costs—made worse by the recent U.S.-Iran conflict—continue to pressure farm profits. The Farm Bureau is urging Congress to provide additional financial assistance and advance long-term policies to strengthen the farm economy.
🌦️ Drought Update
🌧️ Heavy rain improved drought conditions across southern Kentucky, southern Illinois, and southeastern Missouri. However, dry weather allowed drought to expand in northern Missouri and northern Wisconsin.
🔥 The High Plains saw above-normal temperatures, although rain improved conditions in parts of the Dakotas and western Nebraska. This week's intense heat across the Northern Plains is expected to worsen next week's drought outlook.
Current drought coverage:
- 🌽 Corn: 19%
- 🌱 Soybeans: 18%
- 🌾 Winter Wheat: 48%
- 🌾 Spring Wheat: 24%
- 🐄 Cattle: 44%
📉 Grain Markets Pull Back
🌽 Corn and soybean futures ended lower Thursday as weak export sales and a wetter Corn Belt forecast pressured prices.
- 🌽 December 2026 corn: $4.64/bu (-6¢)
- 🫘 November 2026 soybeans: $11.95/bu (-7¢)
🌾 Wheat futures were mixed after Wednesday's rally. Ongoing attacks in Ukraine's Odesa port and the Sea of Azov continue to raise concerns about grain exports from Russia and Ukraine, which together account for about one-third of global wheat exports.
🚢 Export Sales Disappoint
📉 Corn export sales fell to a marketing-year low last week at 315,000 metric tons (12 million bushels)—well below expectations and sharply lower than recent weeks. Japan was the top buyer.
🫘 Soybean sales totaled 188,300 metric tons (7 million bushels), near the low end of expectations. China was the largest buyer and purchased just over 1 million metric tons of new-crop U.S. soybeans, its biggest weekly purchase since January.
🌾 Wheat sales also disappointed at 235,100 metric tons (9 million bushels), with Japan again leading purchases.
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🌾 Wheat futures rallied hard Wednesday as escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions rattled markets, with Chicago wheat closing near $6.77/bu and KC wheat hitting $7.20/bu—both the highest since mid-May. Ukraine has reportedly lost about a third of its grain export capacity after intensified Russian strikes on Black Sea ports, and strength spilled over into corn and soybeans too. 🚢💥
🏛️ House Republicans rolled out a $95 billion spending package Wednesday, with $60 billion aimed at military spending and $12 billion earmarked for farm assistance to offset war-driven input costs. Critics are slamming the bill for lacking spending cuts, warning it could add $100+ billion to the national debt over the next decade. 💰📜
🌽 Excessive heat is raising red flags for US corn yield potential as 34% of the crop hits the critical pollination stage. A heat dome parked over the Northern Plains is expected to shift south later this week, easing stress up north but keeping things hot across the central and southern Plains. ☀️🌡️
🫘 NOPA's June crush data showed US soybean crushing jumped 2.7% from May to 214.34 million bushels—a record for the month and above all trade estimates. Meanwhile, soybean oil stocks sank to an 8-month low of 1.50 billion pounds as strong crush margins keep processors busy. 📊🛢️
⛽ US ethanol production slipped to a 10-week low, down 4.8% week-over-week to 1.04 million barrels per day. Stocks climbed to 24.39 million barrels even as Corn Belt margins held modestly positive, ranging from 10 to 35 cents. 🌽🔋
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🌾 Russia Reroutes Grain After Black Sea Attacks — Russia is shifting grain shipments away from the Sea of Azov following Ukrainian strikes that disrupted a route responsible for roughly a quarter of its grain exports. Wheat futures spiked to multi-week highs as traders weigh the risk of further Black Sea supply chain chaos! 📈
🔥 Heat Wave Threatens South Dakota Spring Wheat — Triple-digit temps and warm overnight lows are stressing the state's spring wheat crop, especially in drier regions without last week's rainfall boost. With temps running nearly 6°F above normal and more heat on the way, grain fill and crop quality are on watch. 🌡️🌱
🚢 Brazil Debuts Ethanol-Powered Cargo Ship — Brazil just launched its first ethanol-powered container vessel, setting sail for China and opening the door to a potential biofuel revolution in global shipping. If ethanol captures just 5% of the marine fuel market, corn demand could jump by 1.5 billion bushels—a massive opportunity for ag producers! ⛴️🌽
💵 Inflation Cools More Than Expected in June — Annual inflation slowed to 3.5%, well below forecasts, while monthly prices posted their biggest drop in six years thanks to falling energy costs. The Fed is still expected to hike in September, but easing prices have softened the odds. 📉
⚓ Strait of Hormuz Tensions Ripple Beyond Oil — Escalating US-Iran tensions threaten fertilizer, sulfur, aluminum, and helium supplies—not just crude. Trump has dropped his proposed 20% toll on Hormuz shipments after pushback from Gulf allies, opting instead for future investment deals. 🛢️⚠️
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🛢️ Oil prices spiked 9.4% to $78.14/barrel Monday as US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz reignited supply fears. Trump announced a US blockade to stop Iranian oil tankers, even as strait traffic had already dropped 52% week-over-week. 🚢
🌾 Russian grain exports face new uncertainty after Sea of Azov shipping restrictions followed Ukrainian attacks on Russian vessels. The affected route handles roughly a quarter of Russia's grain exports, though no major disruptions have hit yet as harvest ramps up. ⚠️
🌱 Soybean futures climbed Monday on hot, dry weather concerns across the Corn Belt, with Nov26 gaining 4 cents to close near $11.95/bushel. Corn followed suit on the same weather worries while wheat pulled back on profit-taking after Friday's Black Sea-driven rally.
🌽
📊 US corn and soybean conditions ticked up slightly last week, with corn at 68% good-to-excellent and soybeans at 65%, both above their five-year averages. Winter wheat harvest also jumped to 67% complete, well ahead of the historical pace. ✅
🇨🇳 China bought more US soybeans Monday, its fourth flash purchase in a week, pushing total purchases to nearly 4% of its 25mmt commitment. Cumulative new-crop purchases now stand at 1.072mmt, about 4.3% of the White House-outlined target. 🛒
🚛 US corn export inspections came in strong at 1.5mmt, up 17% year-over-year despite a weekly dip. Soybean shipments rose sharply from last year while wheat shipments improved week-over-week but still trailed last year's pace. 📦
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🌽 Grain Markets Surge Overnight 🌾 Corn, soybean, and wheat futures opened sharply higher Sunday night on a combustible mix of weather worries and geopolitical shocks. ☀️ The US Corn Belt faces a dry, hot week ahead, adding fuel to the rally even as some early selling emerged this morning.
⚔️ Black Sea Conflict Escalates 🚢 Ukraine and Russia traded attacks on key grain export regions, disrupting shipping through the Sea of Azov and prompting closures of the Don-Azov Channel and Kerch Strait. 🌾 Russia also struck Ukraine's major export ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Izmail, stoking fears over Black Sea grain flow.
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Middle East Tensions Boil Over 🛢️ The US launched a third round of strikes on Iran over the weekend, triggering Iranian missile and drone retaliation against American allies. 🚫 Iran has declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, and shipping traffic there was nearly nonexistent Sunday despite US claims it remains open.
📊 USDA Report Shakes Up Stocks 📉 Friday's USDA update slashed 2026/27 corn ending stocks estimates well below expectations and projected the smallest US wheat harvest in 56 years. 🌱 Soybean stocks held steady but still missed trade estimates, while soybean production got a bump.
💰 Funds Turn Bullish 📈 The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed large money managers net buying 52k corn, 31k soybean, and 7k SRW wheat contracts last week. 🐂 It's a clear signal that speculative money is leaning bullish across the grain complex.
🇨🇳 China Keeps Buying US Soybeans 🛳️ USDA confirmed another 264,000mt soybean sale to China for 2026/2027 delivery, adding to last week's 736,000mt in flash sales. 🌱 The steady demand is a bright spot for US soybean exports.
🖥️ AI Data Centers vs. Farmland 🚜 The booming AI data center industry is competing with agriculture for land, water, and power, sparking concern among farmers and ranchers. ⚖️ Roughly two dozen states are now weighing legislation to regulate or limit new data center development on farmland.
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🌽 Corn & soybeans dipped Thursday as milder weather and wider Corn Belt rainfall eased crop stress — Dec26 corn closed near $4.52, Nov26 beans near $11.82
🌾 Wheat bucked the trend, climbing on tighter US supply expectations
🌡️ GFS and Euro models both flipped cooler for the 8-14 day outlook, adding to the selling pressure
💧 Drought monitor update: improvement in NW/north-central Iowa, SE Minnesota, and SW Wisconsin; minor expansion in southern Illinois and NW Ohio
🇨🇳 Fresh flash sales — 256,000mt of new crop soybeans sold, including more to China; total confirmed new crop China soybean sales now at 672,000mt (2.7% of the 25mmt target)
📉 Corn export sales came in soft—down 23% week-over-week
🛢️ Record US biofuel mandates are pulling in a wave of European biodiesel imports — first shipments since December 2024—as domestic plants struggle to keep up
No Snapshot video today—July WASDE is typically a quiet one, and I've got some prior commitments. Back to the regular lineup next week.
📊 Charts, drought maps, and the China Soybean Purchase Tracker in the video.
👍 Like, subscribe, and drop your yield/stocks predictions in the comments before the number drops!
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🌽 US farmers face a competitive disadvantage as a new NCGA study shows they pay significantly more than Brazilian farmers for corn and soybean inputs like seed, fungicides, and insecticides. NCGA is now pushing for greater price transparency to help level the playing field.
🌾 Grain futures pulled back Wednesday as easing heat forecasts and profit-taking sent corn, soybeans, and wheat lower. Forecasts still call for warm, dry conditions ahead, but the worst of the heat dome is now expected to shift west.
🇨🇳 China booked its largest US soybean purchase since November, buying 472,000mt for 2025/2026 and 2026/2027 delivery. Despite the renewed buying, US soybeans still face a pricing disadvantage due to China's added tariff and cheaper Brazilian supplies.
💣 The US resumed military strikes on Iran, hitting 90 targets as President Trump warned of more action and a possible port blockade. Iran has vowed retaliation and threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, stoking fears over global oil supply.
⛽ US ethanol production slipped last week to 1.09 million barrels per day, with stocks also declining. Corn Belt ethanol margins eased slightly but remain in positive territory.
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🌽 Corn futures rallied to their highest close since early June as scorching heat threatens the Corn Belt. 📈 Renewed optimism over Chinese soybean demand also lifted beans and wheat higher.
🔥 A brutal heat dome is building across the western US and will spread into the Northern Plains and Corn Belt through next week. 🌡️ Triple-digit temps are expected in the Dakotas, Wyoming, and Montana, with little relief in sight through early August.
🛢️ Oil prices spiked after Iran attacked commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, with WTI jumping over 2.8% before extending gains after hours. ⚠️ Trump declared the Iran ceasefire "over" in fiery comments at the NATO summit in Ankara.
📉 US farmer sentiment fell for a third straight month in June, with Purdue's Ag Economy Barometer dropping to 113. 💸 High input costs remain the top concern as confidence in the next five years continues to slide.
🇨🇴 USDA confirmed a flash sale of 105,000mt of soybean cake and meal to Colombia. 🌱 The sale adds to recent bullish demand signals in the soy complex.
🥩 Cattle groups are pushing the Trump administration to scrap a proposed tariff exemption for Brazilian beef. 🇧🇷 Brazilian beef imports have surged 41% this year, fueling tension over a possible 25% tariff and threats of retaliation.
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🌱 China Returns to US Soybeans: China's COFCO purchased 300,000mt of US soybeans Monday, its largest buy in months, with volume potentially reaching 600,000mt as more deals finalize. 📊 Despite the move, China has only committed to about 2% of the 25mmt annual target agreed to last fall.
🤝 Xi-Trump Meeting on the Horizon: President Trump says Xi Jinping may visit Washington around September 24, coinciding with the UN General Assembly. 🏛️ The visit comes as the two nations navigate a fragile trade truce, with tariffs, Taiwan, and Middle East tensions still simmering in the background.
📈 Grains Rally on Weather & Demand: Corn and soybean futures surged Monday, with Dec26 corn hitting its highest close since early June and Nov26 soybeans reaching their best level since late May. 🌧️🔥 The rally was fueled by scorching Corn Belt heat forecasts plus flooding in Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin, alongside renewed optimism over Chinese demand.
💰 Funds Turn Bullish: The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed money managers net buying corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat for the week ending June 30. 📅 It marked the first time since late April that funds were net buyers of both corn and soybeans simultaneously.
🌽 Crop Conditions Steady: US corn conditions held at 67% good-to-excellent, unchanged week-over-week but still below last year's pace.
🌾 Soybeans dipped slightly to 64% while winter wheat harvest raced ahead at 59% complete, well above the average pace.
🔥 Record Overnight Heat Alert: CropProphet's data shows the June 29–July 4 stretch brought the warmest overnight temperatures on record for corn-producing regions since 1981. 🌡️ While daytime highs were merely top-4 historically, those scorching nighttime lows are now a key risk factor to watch as the crop develops through July.
🚢 Export Shipments Mixed: Corn export inspections beat expectations at 1.6mmt, up 5% year-over-year, while soybean shipments jumped 32% versus last year with China driving half the volume. 📉 Wheat shipments disappointed, falling 66% week-over-week and 74% below last year's pace.
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🌧️ Heavy rain triggered major flooding across Iowa, with over 15 inches falling in central areas and I-35 shut down near Ames. More storms are on the way this week, though the recent extreme heat is expected to ease as the heat dome shifts west toward the Plains. 🌽
📊 USDA's latest drought monitor showed improvement in the southern Corn Belt thanks to heavy rain, while drier conditions expanded drought in western Iowa and southern Minnesota. High Plains states like South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, and Oklahoma also saw drought conditions ease. 🌾
🇺🇸🇨🇳 The US and China have agreed in principle to cut tariffs on agricultural goods, potentially making US soybeans more competitive with Brazil. Traders remain cautious though, waiting for real sales rather than just diplomatic headlines. 🌱
🛢️ OPEC+ is boosting oil production again as shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz recovers post-ceasefire. WTI crude sits near $68/bbl, down nearly 40% since its April peak amid glut concerns. ⛽
📉 US corn and soybean export sales fell sharply last week, with soybean sales hitting a marketing-year low. Mexico led in corn and wheat purchases, while China topped the soybean buyers list. 🚢
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🌱 USDA Fertilizer Investment – USDA is putting $500 million into expanding US fertilizer production, targeting nitrogen projects in Louisiana and Nebraska to cut import reliance. 💰 Don't expect relief at the farm gate anytime soon though — most projects are years from completion, and experts say it's still far short of what's needed for real self-sufficiency.
🌾 Wheat, Corn & Soybeans Rally – Wheat futures extended gains for a second day after USDA pegged this year's harvested wheat acreage at just 32.1 million acres, the smallest since 1877! 📈 Corn and soybeans rode the bullish wave higher too, both notching back-to-back gains.
🔥 Extreme Heat Hits the Corn Belt – Triple-digit heat indexes are scorching the Corn Belt and Plains, adding stress to corn and soybean crops in the driest spots. ⛈️ Some relief is on the way though, with scattered storms and slightly cooler temps expected next week.
⛽ Ethanol Production Climbs – US ethanol output jumped to an eleven-week high, up 2.5% week-over-week and 3.3% year-over-year. 📊 Stocks rose too, and margins across the Corn Belt remain solidly positive.
🛢️ Strait of Hormuz Oil Flows Rebound – Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are nearing pre-war levels, backed by US military support and alternative export routes. 🕊️ Trump says peace talks with Iran in Qatar are going well, which helped push oil prices lower.
📱 Robinhood Launches 24/7 Futures in Europe – Robinhood is rolling out round-the-clock perpetual futures trading in Europe, covering gold, silver, crude oil, currencies, and ETFs with up to 10x leverage. ⚠️ Ag commodities aren't included yet, but the move fuels concerns that 24/7 trading could eventually reshape the grain markets too.
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🌽 Corn futures rallied Tuesday after USDA pegged June 1 stocks at 5.3 billion bushels, below every trade estimate, while 2026 planted acreage came in at 95.34 million acres. The Dec26 contract gained 6 cents to close at $4.36/bushel, while soybean stocks and acreage came in above expectations and wheat acreage fell well short of forecasts.
🌍 President Trump has temporarily suspended duties on Moroccan phosphate fertilizer for up to eight months to ease shortages tied to the US-Iran war. The DOJ continues investigating major fertilizer companies over antitrust concerns, even as the administration works to boost domestic production long-term.
🔥 A brutal heat dome is gripping the Corn Belt and Plains, with heat index values hitting 100–110°F across Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri, Illinois, and Kansas. Crop stress is worst in the western Corn Belt and Plains, while livestock producers watch for heat stress in fat cattle.
💵 The Brazilian Real posted its worst month of 2026 in June, falling about 2.7% on a stronger US dollar and rate expectations. Inflation worries, falling oil prices, and election uncertainty added pressure, though some analysts see room for a rebound.
🌾 USDA reported a flash sale of 100,000mt of hard red spring wheat to Nigeria for the 2026/2027 marketing year. Total wheat sales remain down 17% versus last year.
🥩 CME is launching new beef trim futures covering 50% and 90% lean beef trimmings starting July 20, pending approval. The contracts won't change cattle or beef supplies but aim to improve price risk management and transparency across the supply chain.
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🌽 Corn & Soybean Selloff
Corn futures tumbled Monday, with the Dec26 contract falling nearly 12 cents to close at $4.30/bushel as traders positioned ahead of today's USDA report. 📉 Soybeans dropped even harder, with Nov26 losing about 17 cents to settle at $11.39/bushel, while wheat also closed lower.
🌡️ Heat Building Across the Belt
Oppressive heat and humidity will grip the Plains and Corn Belt through the week, pushing heat index values into the triple digits with overnight lows barely dipping below 80. 🔥 Extreme heat warnings are already up across the eastern Plains and Corn Belt, with the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes at greatest risk for record highs.
📊 USDA Report Day
USDA releases its Planted Acreage and Grain Stocks reports this morning, with corn acreage expected to decline from March intentions while soybean acreage rises. 🧾 June 1 corn stocks are forecast up ~16% YoY, soybeans up ~4%, and wheat up 9% — our USDA Snapshot video drops within 15 minutes of the 11am CST release.
🌱 Crop Conditions Update
Corn and soybean conditions slipped slightly last week, with corn at 67% good-to-excellent and soybeans at 65%, both still above their five-year averages. 🌾 Spring wheat improved to 59% G/E, while winter wheat held steady at a weak 26% G/E with harvest now 48% complete.
🚢 Export Inspections
Corn export inspections came in strong at 1.8mmt, up 22% week-over-week and 29% year-over-year. 🌊 Soybean inspections jumped 54% to 419,124mt with China taking 16% of the total, while wheat inspections fell 9.6% to 358,253mt.
💰 Flash Sale Alert
USDA confirmed a flash sale of 136,000mt of soybeans to unknown destinations for 2026/2027 delivery. 🇨🇳 Stay tuned for more updates as the trading week unfolds!
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🌡️ A heat dome is building over the Plains and Corn Belt this week, pushing temps into the 90s and triple digits with heat index values up to 110°F and raising crop stress concerns. Storms along the dome's edge should bring rain to the Dakotas, Minnesota, and parts of Nebraska/Kansas before cooler, wetter conditions return by week's end.
🌱 USDA finalized its Regenerative Feedstock Rule for the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit, letting farmers using regenerative practices qualify corn and soybeans for lower-carbon biofuel premiums. Farm and biofuel groups praised the move, though farmers will earn premiums through ethanol plants rather than direct government payments.
⚔️ US-Iran tensions flared again after US strikes on Iranian military targets followed Iran's attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, putting peace talks on hold even as US officials say negotiations remain on track. Trump warned of further military action if attacks continue, while WTI crude trades near $70/bbl amid the uncertainty.
📊 Friday's CFTC report showed big money managers growing their corn net short to 75k contracts (largest since early February) and trimming soybean net longs to 37k (smallest since early February). Wheat saw modest selling too, with funds dumping 1k SRW contracts on the week.
🌾 USDA drops its Planted Acreage and Grain Stocks report Tuesday morning, with corn acreage expected down and soybean acreage up versus March intentions. June 1 stocks are seen higher year-over-year across the board—corn +16%, soybeans +4%, and wheat +9%.
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🌱 SOYBEANS & GRAINS RALLY: Soybean futures surged Thursday, with Nov26 closing at $11.57/bu — the highest since early June 📈. Corn and wheat also gained, lifted by soybean oil strength, firmer crude, a weaker dollar, and heat worries across the Corn Belt 🌡️🌽.
💰 FERTILIZER PRICES EASE: Retail fertilizer prices fell for a second straight week as the Strait of Hormuz reopens, with urea down 12% and UAN32 down 7% 📉. DAP and potash ticked up slightly, but officials warn it could take months for supply chains to fully normalize ⏳.
📊 USDA REPORTS AHEAD: USDA drops its Planted Acreage and Grain Stocks reports Tuesday morning 🗞️. Traders expect lower corn acreage, higher soybean acreage, steady wheat acreage, and higher year-over-year stocks across the board 🌾.
🌧️ DROUGHT MONITOR UPDATE: Rain improved conditions in Kentucky, northern Illinois, and northwest Iowa, dropping Corn Belt drought coverage to just 13% (from 36% earlier this year) ☔. The High Plains saw some relief too, but widespread dryness still grips much of the region 🏜️.
🇮🇷 IRAN-US TENSIONS: Iran is pushing back on Trump's claim that unfrozen funds will be used to buy US ag goods, with the White House holding firm on its conditions 🚫. Tensions flared further after Iran allegedly attacked a cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, raising doubts about the fragile US-Iran agreement ⚠️.
🚢 EXPORT SALES MIXED: Corn export sales dropped sharply last week, down 36% from the prior week, with Mexico the top buyer 📦. Soybean sales jumped 50% above the four-week average on strong "unknown destination" demand, while wheat sales also rose nicely to start the new marketing year 🌍.
⚖️ BAYER WINS BIG AT SCOTUS: The Supreme Court ruled 7-2 that Bayer can't be sued under state law for not putting a cancer warning on Roundup/glyphosate 🛡️. The decision could wipe out thousands of pending lawsuits and sent Bayer shares soaring as much as 20% 🚀.
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🌾 Farm Aid Boost 💰 Trump is requesting $11B+ in new farm aid on top of $30.5B already expected this year, including $10B for 2026 crop support and $1.1B for Southeast freeze losses. This would stack on top of the $12B Farmer Bridge Assistance Program already rolling out to producers.
⛽ Year-Round E15 Push 🌽 The White House just made its first formal request for Congress to legalize year-round E15 ethanol sales, framing it as a way to ease gas prices amid Middle East tensions. Unlike the House bill that already passed, Trump's version strips out the controversial Small Refinery Exemption (SRE) provisions.
🏭 Illinois Soybean Crush Plant 🌱 Incobrasa Industries opened a massive new 170,000 sq ft crush facility in Gilman, IL, doubling capacity and creating 40 new jobs while securing demand for 7,000 local farms. The plant even includes a 50-acre solar array to help power operations sustainably.
📉 Grains Under Pressure 🌾 Corn and soybeans extended their losing streak Wednesday, with Dec26 corn near $4.35/bu and Nov26 soybeans at $11.35/bu, pressured by a stronger dollar and weak crude. Wheat also slid for a fourth straight session as bearish momentum builds across the complex.
🛢️ Oil Prices Sink 📉 WTI crude tumbled nearly 4% to $70.34/barrel as Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizes post-ceasefire, even as Trump calls for a DOJ probe into oil companies over retail prices. Gas prices are already down nearly 60 cents/gallon over the past month, though they typically lag crude moves.
🚢 Fertilizer Flows Rebound 🌍 Crop nutrient shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are surging back, with at least 16 vessels transiting since the Iran peace deal and volumes nearing pre-war levels. Urea prices are already easing as fears of prolonged disruption fade.
⚗️ Ethanol Update 📊 US ethanol output dipped slightly last week to 1.09M barrels/day while stocks climbed to 24.59M barrels. Despite the soft production, Corn Belt margins remain strong, running 30–50 cents positive, per Reuters data.
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🌡️ A massive heat dome is set to roast the Plains and Corn Belt next week, pushing real-feel temps above 100°F across the Ohio, Mississippi, and Tennessee Valleys. It'll dry out soggy fields but deepen drought stress elsewhere, with stormy edges threatening localized flooding and crop damage too.
🌱 Soybeans held steady Tuesday after two down sessions, with Nov26 parked at $11.42/bu. Corn slid for a third straight day to $4.37/bu on Dec26, even as fresh export demand offered some support.
💰 Input costs are easing, but farmers say it's not enough. Wisconsin growers point to lingering strain from Iran-war-driven fertilizer and fuel spikes, with some relief now coming from US-Iran peace talks—though next year's fertilizer costs already loom large.
🇨🇳 The US Soybean Export Council is leaning on quality to claw back Chinese demand lost to Brazil. Brazil now grabs over 60% of China's soybean imports versus just 23% for the US, a stark flip from a decade ago when both sat near 40%.
⚓ Russian strikes on Ukrainian ports near Odesa could slash the country's grain exports by up to 30%. With Ukraine accounting for a meaningful slice of global wheat and corn trade, exports are already running about 12% behind last year's pace.
⛽ E15 legislation cleared the House but faces a tougher Senate fight ahead. Minnesota farmer Tim Waibel says oil-industry opposition and an uncertain Senate timeline are the biggest hurdles, even as crop conditions back home look excellent.
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🇮🇷🌾 US-Iran talks could open the door to new ag demand, with Trump saying unfrozen Iranian funds would go toward purchases of US corn, soybeans, and wheat. Iran's negotiator claims a $12 billion unfreeze deal, though the US hasn't confirmed it, and recent Iranian crop demand has been minimal since a 2018 soybean buy.
🛢️📉 Crude oil kept sliding, with WTI falling over 2% to settle near $75/barrel, its lowest since early March. Progress in US-Iran talks and reports of Iran getting approval to sell petroleum products pressured the market, with traders looking ahead to a potentially reopened Strait of Hormuz.
🌽🌱 Corn and soybeans moved lower Monday, with Dec26 corn down ~4 cents to $4.40 and Nov26 soybeans down a penny to $11.42. Falling crude, a firmer dollar, and favorable Corn Belt conditions weighed on prices, though excess rain in some areas is raising minor concern.
🌧️🚜 Weekend storms brought rain to Nebraska but also hail and wind damage in spots. Coverage was uneven across the state, and despite the moisture, much of Nebraska remains in drought with more rain and cooler temps expected this week.
✅📊 Crop conditions held mostly steady, with corn at 68% good/excellent and soybeans at 66%, both above their averages. Winter wheat slipped to 26% good/excellent (well below average) while harvest is moving at its fastest pace since 2012.
💰📑 The CFTC's COT report showed funds turning more bearish on corn and soybeans last week. Managed money grew its corn net short to 49k contracts (largest since early Feb) and cut soybean net longs to 54k (smallest since early Feb), while adding modestly to SRW wheat longs.
🇧🇷🌱 Brazilian soybean acreage is set to hit a record high, per AgRural, up 0.9% to 121.09 million acres. It'd be the 20th straight annual increase but the smallest gain in two decades, as high input costs and tighter credit slow expansion.
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🌱 China made its first purchase of new-crop US soybeans, snapping up 132,000mt alongside additional flash sales of corn to Mexico and soybeans to unknown destinations. This comes after the White House announced China would buy 25mmt of US soybeans annually over the next 3 years.
⚖️ CME has filed a lawsuit against the CFTC over its approval of Kalshi's perpetual futures, arguing the products should be regulated as swaps under Dodd-Frank rather than futures. CME shares have dropped ~9% since the approval as the new contracts have already generated over $5 billion in trading activity.
🌧️ Widespread rain (and some flooding) improved drought conditions across much of the Corn Belt, with just 13% of the region now in drought versus 36% at the start of the year. The High Plains, however, remains largely dry and continues to struggle.
🛢️ US-Iran peace talks made progress over the weekend with a 60-day roadmap and a new direct communication line, even as Iran claimed the Strait of Hormuz was closed again. CENTCOM says the strait remains open, and WTI crude is trading lower near $75/bbl despite the back-and-forth.
🌾 Fertilizer prices are sliding as the Middle East war premium fades, with benchmark urea prices down ~50% from their April peak. Weak farmer demand and China's plan to resume exports are adding further pressure, though phosphate prices stay elevated on a sulfur shortage.
📦 Corn export sales rose 16% week-over-week with Spain as the top buyer, while soybean sales beat expectations at 424,900mt behind strong Egyptian demand. New-crop wheat sales came in softer, down 40% from the prior week, with Japan leading purchases.
🐄 Friday's Cattle on Feed report was largely neutral, with on-feed totals up 2% year-over-year even as placements and marketings ran below last year's levels. The bigger story remains the historically low US cattle herd, setting up for tighter supplies until rebuilding eventually kicks in.
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🌽📉 A new report warns the US could lose around 30 million corn acres by 2050. Weak feed demand and an ethanol blend rate stuck at 10% are largely to blame.
⛽🚗 If the ethanol blend rate doesn't increase, the US stands to lose 6.6 billion gallons of ethanol demand by 2050 as overall gasoline use declines. The Senate is now preparing to vote on E15 legislation after the House narrowly passed a similar bill in May.
📊🌾 S&P Global Energy completed the study, and one US farmer summed it up simply: too much supply chasing too little demand. See graphics from the report below, and click the link to view the full report.
🌪️⚠️ Severe weather moved through parts of the Midwest last night, with tornadoes confirmed near Harpers Ferry, IA and Charleston, IL. Surrounding areas also experienced heavy winds and hail.
🌧️🗺️ A band stretching from central Iowa through central Illinois and into Indiana picked up 1"–3" of rain in the 24 hours ended at midnight. See rain maps below.
🫘🦠 Excessive rainfall across the Midwest and Delta has led to soybean disease pressure, including Rhizoctonia and Pythium. Parts of Missouri, Arkansas, Indiana, Tennessee, and other states have seen over 8" of rain in the last 30 days.
📈🌾 Grain markets finished higher on Wednesday, with wheat futures leading the charge. The Jul26 HRW contract gained nearly 19 cents to close near $6.53/bu, while Dec26 corn gained more than 6 cents to close near $4.49/bu.
🇨🇳🫘 Rumors of Chinese interest in US grains helped support Wednesday's rally. USDA confirmed a flash sale of 372,000 metric tons of soybeans to unknown destinations, which many see as a possible confirmation of that Chinese demand.
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🌱 Soybeans lead on China optimism
Soybean futures rallied Tuesday, with Nov ’26 up ~12¢ to ~$11.47 (two-week high) amid rumors China may return to the U.S. market. Optimism was also fueled by a potential September visit from Xi Jinping to Washington. Corn futures were mixed, pressured by weaker crude and favorable weather, while Chicago wheat rose on short-covering and technical buying; Kansas City wheat slipped.
🌎 USMCA talks add uncertainty to trade outlook
U.S. and Mexican officials are meeting in Washington this week to negotiate the future of USMCA, focusing on agriculture and energy. Tensions rose after President Trump संकेत he may not renew the deal. Mexico and Canada accounted for $58.6B in U.S. ag exports in 2025 (over one-third of the total), making the outcome critical—especially as China remains an inconsistent buyer. Another round of talks is set for mid-July in Mexico City.
🌧️ Weather mostly favorable, with storm risks
The Corn Belt is expected to see widespread rainfall over the next 5–7 days, supporting crop development. However, heavier totals in parts of MO, IL, KY, IA, and IN could cause localized flooding. Severe storms are possible today (damaging winds, hail, tornado risk), while cooler-than-normal temps are expected over the next 6–10 days.
⛽ Biofuels seen as key to demand growth
A study from S&P Global Energy highlights ethanol demand as the primary driver of corn usage growth (≈83% since 2000). Expanding E15 nationwide is viewed as the easiest path to boost demand, though Senate resistance remains. Without stronger biofuel demand, the report warns of a long-term oversupply in U.S. agriculture.
🌽 Acreage outlook edges higher
S&P Global Commodity Insights raised its 2026 acreage forecasts: corn at 96M acres (+800K vs. prior) and soybeans at 85.3M (+300K). That compares to 95.2M corn and 83.4M soybean acres last year. USDA last pegged 2026 acreage at 95.3M (corn) and 84.7M (beans), with updated figures due June 30.
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🌽 Crop Conditions & Harvest Progress
US crop conditions improved modestly last week. Corn ratings rose to 68% good-to-excellent, while soybeans increased to 66%, both slightly above average. Spring wheat saw a stronger jump to 55%, now above normal levels. Winter wheat improved to 27%, though it remains historically weak for this time of year. Harvest is moving quickly, with 25% complete—well ahead of both last week and last year’s pace.
📈 Markets Rally on Iran Deal Hopes
Equity markets surged Monday on news of a preliminary US-Iran peace deal. The Dow hit a record high (+0.9%), while the S&P 500 (+1.7%) and Nasdaq (+3.1%) posted strong gains. Optimism around easing inflation and lower interest rate pressure drove the rally. Crude oil fell 4.8% to $80.75, though prices remain significantly higher year-over-year. Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon, lingering uncertainty and congestion could delay a full return to normal shipping.
🚢 Fertilizer Shipments Still Constrained
Fertilizer logistics remain tight despite the potential reopening of the Strait. Shipowners are cautious, and fertilizer cargo is being deprioritized behind energy shipments. A backlog of vessels—including 40+ fertilizer ships—continues to clog the route, with flows still down roughly 90% since the conflict began. While prices have eased مؤخراً, US fertilizer costs remain elevated versus last year.
🛢️ NOPA Crush Mixed but Historically Strong
NOPA reported a May soybean crush of 208.8 million bushels—down slightly from April but still a record for the month and up 8.3% year-over-year. The decline was tied to seasonal maintenance downtime. Soybean oil stocks dropped sharply to 1.74 billion pounds, a five-month low and below expectations, signaling tighter near-term supply.
🚢 Export Demand Remains Solid
US corn export inspections fell to 1.6 mmt but remain robust overall. Soybean shipments were strong at 522,687 mt, up sharply week-over-week and more than doubling last year’s pace, though China accounted for just 26%. Wheat exports disappointed at 334,292 mt, trailing expectations and running below last year.
🐛 Screwworm Outbreak Expands, Supports Cattle
The New World screwworm outbreak has spread into west-central Texas, with cases now confirmed across multiple counties and species. Containment challenges persist due to limited sterile fly production, raising concern about further spread. The situation is indirectly supporting cattle prices, as movement restrictions tighten already constrained supply.
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🌍 Geopolitics
🤝 The U.S. and Iran reached a tentative deal to end the war. The agreement includes releasing $25B in assets and lifting oil sanctions, while Iran commits to no nuclear weapons.
🚢 Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, and the U.S. will lift its naval blockade. More details are expected in follow-up talks, with the deal set to be signed Friday.
🌽 Grain Markets
🟡 Soybeans slipped (Nov ’26: $11.32, -2¢) under pressure from good weather and weaker crude.
🌽 Corn rebounded late (Dec ’26: ~$4.40, +1¢) but still faces headwinds from energy markets, favorable weather, and big South American crop expectations.
🌾 Wheat also moved lower on ample global supplies.
🌦️ Weather
⛈️ Severe storms swept the Corn Belt over the weekend, bringing heavy rain, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Some areas saw flooding.
🌡️ Temps stay above normal this week (not extreme), with more scattered rain ahead—heaviest in central and eastern areas. Overall tone remains bearish for grains.
📊 Funds (CFTC)
🐻 Funds turned net short corn (sold 121k contracts), the largest sell-off since May ’25.
🌱 Soybean longs shrank (sold 58k), now the smallest since February.
🌾 Wheat also saw selling (23k contracts).
🥩 Cattle
🏭 JBS is closing plants in Pennsylvania and Memphis, shifting cattle elsewhere.
🐄 With the herd at a 75-year low, tight supplies are driving record cattle prices and heavy packer losses.
⚖️ Short term: too much capacity vs. cattle. Long term: less capacity is negative for the industry.
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🌽 USDA Report: Nothing to Get Excited About
The latest USDA report was largely as expected—minimal changes to U.S. stocks and only modest tweaks on demand. South American production was revised higher, keeping global corn supplies comfortable. Overall reaction: underwhelmed 😐
📉 Grain Markets Slip
Soybeans, corn, and wheat all moved lower. Favorable weather 🌦️, weak crude oil 🛢️, and ample supply expectations kept pressure on prices.
🌧️ Weather: Mixed Bag
Rain helped improve drought conditions across parts of the Corn Belt, but dryness worsened in northern Minnesota and remains widespread in the High Plains. Still a split story 🌦️➡️🌵
🛢️ Oil Drops on Peace Hopes
Crude fell over 2% as optimism builds around a potential end to the war, but uncertainty remains. Meanwhile, the prolonged conflict continues to fuel inflation pressures 📉➡️📈
🚢 Export Snapshot
Corn sales improved, soybeans disappointed, and wheat exceeded expectations. Notably, China is still absent from new-crop soybean buying, with a large share of sales sitting in “unknown” destinations 👀
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📈 Inflation Hits 3-Year High — Consumer prices jumped 4.2% year over year in May, the largest annual gain since April 2023, driven largely by the energy shock from the Iran war. With inflation outpacing wages and the Fed expected to hold rates steady next week, traders are asking, could grains rally sharply like they did in 2021-2022 if inflation accelerates?
⛈️ Severe Weather Pounds the Corn Belt — Hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes swept across the region Wednesday, with the active pattern expected to persist through Friday and flooding risks mounting. Temperatures are forecast to moderate by the weekend, followed by below-normal readings next week.
🌱 Soybeans Snap Losing Streak — After eight straight sessions of declines, Nov26 soybeans rebounded ~7 cents to settle near $11.39, lifted by crude oil strength amid Middle East tensions. Dec26 corn edged ~2 cents higher to close near $4.47, while wheat posted modest gains across most contracts.
📊 USDA Report Day — The monthly Crop Production and WASDE report drops today at 11am CST, with traders expecting no significant changes to US or global ending stocks. Corn exports could be revised higher, while frustration over the lack of Chinese soybean purchases raises the possibility of a demand cut—though it may be too early for the USDA to act.
⛽ Ethanol Production Holds Steady — Weekly output came in at 1.1mil barrels per day, unchanged from the prior week, while stocks declined 1% to 24.45mil barrels. Margins remain strong across the Corn Belt, running 25 to 60 cents positive per Reuters data.
🥩 Beef prices keep climbing—ground beef hit $7.06/lb in May (+13% YoY), and steak surged to $12.80/lb (+16%) as the US cattle herd sits at its lowest level in over seven decades. With more than half of cattle country in drought, meaningful herd rebuilding is unlikely anytime soon — though analysts question how long demand can hold as inflation erodes purchasing power.
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⛈️ SEVERE WEATHER SLAMS THE PLAINS & CORN BELT 🌪️
Powerful storms are sweeping from North Dakota to northern Texas with damaging winds, hail, and tornado threats before pushing east through the Corn Belt! Flood watches are up across KS, MO, IL, IN, KY, and TN, while heat advisories stretch from Minnesota to Texas. 🥵
🌱 SOYBEANS SLIDE FOR 8TH STRAIGHT SESSION 📉
Nov26 beans dropped another 4 cents to $11.32, the lowest since mid-March, pressured by friendly weather, sinking crude, and zero Chinese demand! Soybean oil strength limited the bleeding, while corn finished narrowly mixed and wheat closed mostly higher. 📊
🛢️ OIL TUMBLES DESPITE MIDDLE EAST FIREWORKS 💥
WTI crude crashed 3.4% to $88.20 even after Iran reportedly shot down a US Apache helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz! Traders shrugged off the escalation, focusing instead on Trump's claim that a US-Iran deal is just days away—plus rising oil exports through the waterway! 🚢
🌽 USDA REPORT DAY IS COMING! 📋
The monthly crop production and WASDE report drops Thursday at 11am CST, with traders expecting few changes to US or global ending stocks! Watch for a possible bump in corn exports and keep an eye on soybean demand as China's absence frustrates the trade. 👀
🐛 SCREWWORM FIGHT INTENSIFIES AS CATTLE RALLY 🐂
The USDA unveiled a new fly strain set to DOUBLE sterile fly production, though full capacity won't arrive until next summer as five new cases were confirmed in Texas and New Mexico! Cattle futures didn't flinch—live cattle surged up to $2.89/cwt, and feeders jumped $3.25/cwt—even as Mexico moved to halt most live US animal imports after the close! 💪
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🌽 Corn & Crops — US corn crop conditions held steady at 67% good-to-excellent, while soybeans dipped slightly to 65%. Spring wheat improved week-over-week, but winter wheat hit its lowest rating since records began in 1986.
📈 Futures Markets — Corn and wheat futures saw modest rebounds on bargain buying after recent losses, with KC wheat leading gains up 9 cents. Soybeans fell for a seventh straight session, pressured by favorable weather and weak Chinese demand.
🌧️ Weather — Parts of the Corn Belt received over 4 inches of rain in a short window, with active radar again this morning. Forecasts call for above-normal rainfall across corn areas in both the 1-7-day and 8-14-day outlooks.
💊 Fertilizer Prices — New Orleans urea has dropped 36% from its mid-April peak to $453.50/ton, now at pre-war levels as US-Iran peace talks ease supply fears. Seasonal demand weakness and ample domestic supply are adding further downward pressure.
🌍 Brazil vs. US Competition — Brazil's farming model is under strain as heavy reliance on imported fertilizer leaves growers far more exposed to the Iran-driven price shock. Many Brazilian farmers are now operating at a loss, potentially narrowing their long-standing cost advantage over US producers.
🚢 Export Inspections & Flash Sales — Corn export inspections came in strong at 1.9 MMT, up 11% year-over-year, while soybeans and wheat lagged at the lower end of expectations. USDA also reported flash sales of 264,000 MT of soybeans to unknown destinations and 103,000 MT of corn to Japan.
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🌽 Corn and soybean futures continued lower Friday, with December corn settling at $4.46/bu and November beans near $11.38/bu — both at multi-month lows. A stronger dollar, Wall Street weakness, favorable weather, and a lack of Chinese buying all weighed on prices.
🌧️ Weekend rains provided solid coverage across much of the Corn Belt, with more widespread precipitation expected over the next 7 days. Temperatures will stay above normal near-term before cooling in the extended period.
🇺🇸 President Trump visited Wisconsin Friday to address farmer concerns over rising input costs and limited market access. He expressed confidence that export conditions and overall farm economics will improve within the next three months.
📊 The CFTC's Commitment of Traders report showed large money managers were heavy sellers across the grain complex for the week ending June 2. Funds have shed 225k corn contracts since early May, while also selling 28k beans and 38k SRW wheat contracts.
💣 US-Iran tensions escalated further Sunday as Iran launched missiles at Israel, marking its first direct strike since the early April ceasefire. Peace talks remain stalled over disputes surrounding frozen assets and broader regional conflicts.
🛢️ Oil prices have stayed surprisingly contained despite the Strait of Hormuz closure now entering its fourth month, removing over 10 million barrels per day from the global supply. Record US exports, weaker Chinese demand, and SPR releases have offset much of the shock—though the situation remains fragile.
🐛 A second New World screwworm case was confirmed in Texas Friday, just 5.6 miles from the initial detection near the US-Mexico border. Canada announced temporary import restrictions on livestock from affected regions, though cattle futures pushed higher on the week.
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🌱📉 Soybean Futures—Soybean futures tumbled sharply on Thursday, with the Nov26 contract dropping nearly 26 cents to settle near $11.42/bu—its lowest point since mid-March. Favorable weather forecasts, weak crude oil prices, and lackluster Chinese demand all weighed on the market.
🌽📊 Corn & Wheat Futures — Corn futures slid 8 cents to close near $4.52/bu on the Dec26 contract, hitting its lowest level since late January. Wheat futures also finished lower, pressured by ample global supplies.
🌧️🗺️ USDA Drought Monitor—Hot and dry conditions across the Corn Belt worsened drought in Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, northern Illinois, NW Indiana, and NE Missouri last week. Meanwhile, Kentucky saw improvement, and thunderstorms brought some relief to parts of the High Plains. 📄 See USDA's drought PDF linked below.
🌾🌏 China Wheat Quality Concerns—Heavy late-May rains caused an estimated 4.8–10mmt of wheat to sprout in China's key growing regions, rendering it unfit for milling and redirecting it to livestock feed. China may ramp up imports of higher-grade milling wheat to compensate, while persistent wet weather is also slowing Russia's spring wheat planting to its slowest pace since 2018.
📦🚢 US Export Sales—Corn export sales came in at 883,300mt for the week ending May 28, down 13% week-over-week and 32% below the prior four-week average, with Japan as the top buyer. Soybean sales totaled 276,900mt — down slightly week-over-week but up 24% from the four-week average, led by China, though China has yet to book any new-crop US soybeans.
🐄🪲 Cattle Futures & Screwworm—Cattle futures rallied sharply on Thursday despite confirmation of New World screwworm in the US, with live cattle gaining up to $4.80/cwt and most feeder cattle contracts hitting the new $10.75/cwt daily limit. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins expressed confidence the case—the first in Texas since 1966—can be contained, though the risk of spread through wildlife remains a concern.
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🌽 Grain futures extended losses Wednesday, with Dec26 corn falling ~7 cents to $4.60/bu and Nov26 soybeans declining ~11 cents to $11.67/bu — both hitting multi-month lows. Wheat also sold off sharply, with Chicago July26 dropping ~16 cents to $5.87/bu as favorable Corn Belt growing conditions weighed on the complex.
🫘 Deputy Ag Secretary Stephen Vaden expressed confidence that China will follow through on its commitment to purchase 25mmt of US soybeans annually for three years. However, China has officially purchased zero bushels of US soybeans for 26/27 delivery so far.
📈 Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called the recent rise in inflation transitory, attributing it to higher energy prices tied to the Iran war. April CPI came in at 3.8% — the highest since 2023 — while most economists expect the federal deficit to widen above 6% this year.
⛽ The Iran war has driven diesel prices to nearly double last year's levels in some regions, compounding elevated fertilizer and chemical costs for farmers. Rabobank estimates food prices could rise 4–6% over the next 12–18 months as input costs work their way through the supply chain.
🏭 US ethanol production hit a seasonal high last week at 1.1 million barrels per day, up 4.9% vs. the same week last year. Ethanol margins across the Corn Belt remain positive at 20–55 cents based on spot prices of corn, DDGs, and other inputs.
🐄 The USDA confirmed a New World screwworm case in a calf near La Pryor, Texas — the first detection in the US cattle herd. The USDA has implemented quarantines and a 12-mile surveillance zone, though questions remain about containment capacity heading into summer.
🚢 USDA reported a flash sale of 136,000mt (5 million bushels) of corn sold to South Korea for 2026/27 delivery. The sale offers a modest bright spot amid an otherwise bearish week for grain markets.
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Corn futures fell for a third straight session with the Dec26 contract settling near $4.67/bu—its lowest since late February—pressured by favorable Corn Belt weather and no Chinese buying since the mid-May summit. 🌽📉 Soybeans lost 11 cents to close near $11.78/bu and wheat followed lower, with Chicago July settling at $6.03 and KC July at $6.35. 🌾
The White House is cutting tariffs on imported farm and construction equipment from 25% to 15%, effective June 8 through end of 2027, with a possible 10% rate for equipment using 85%+ US steel or aluminum. 🚜 Separately, the administration is proposing at least 10% tariffs on imports from 60 countries over forced labor concerns, largely replacing the current 10% global tariff expiring July 24th. 🌍
US farmer sentiment slipped for the second straight month, with the
Purdue/CME Ag Economy Barometer falling to 119 in May—well below last year's high of 158. 😟 A record 51% of producers cited high input costs as their top concern, and only 37% expect good times over the next five years. 💸
China issued lodging warnings for its wheat crop as harvest begins, mobilizing thousands of combines to limit losses. 🇨🇳🌾 The main worry is reduced milling-quality wheat, which could nudge the world's top wheat producer toward increased imports. ⚠️
CHS is closing or selling three grain elevators in southern Minnesota as farmers increasingly deliver directly to processors and river terminals. 🏗️ Expanded on-farm storage and more competitive pricing at larger facilities are accelerating the shift away from local elevators. 📦
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🌽 Initial US crop conditions came in below last year's ratings and analyst expectations across corn, soybeans, and wheat. Winter wheat hit its lowest good-to-excellent rating since records began in 1986.
📉 Corn and soybean futures moved lower Monday despite a rally in crude oil, settling near multi-week lows. Weak grain prices were driven by a favorable US Corn Belt weather outlook and ample global supplies.
☀️ A strong El Niño is increasingly likely to develop by late July, with an 82% probability of formation according to the US Climate Prediction Center. Historically, strong El Niño years have been associated with record or near-record corn and soybean yields.
🛢️ Middle East tensions escalated after Iran suspended peace talks with the US, sending WTI crude surging 5.5% to just above $92 per barrel. Israeli PM Netanyahu signaled military operations in southern Lebanon would continue despite calls for a ceasefire.
🚢 US corn export inspections came in strong at 1.7 million metric tons last week, up over 5% from the same week last year. Soybean shipments were near the lower end of expectations but jumped 64% year-over-year, with China accounting for roughly 42% of inspections.
🥛 A whey protein shortage is emerging as food companies aggressively add protein to a wide range of products, pushing prices up 30–40% in recent months. Because whey is a byproduct of cheese production, supply can't easily expand, forcing manufacturers to explore alternatives like soy and pea protein.
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🕊️ President Trump says he's in no rush on an Iran deal but warned military action remains on the table if negotiations fail. A tentative 60-day ceasefire extension was agreed upon, though Trump reportedly sent back a revised framework with tougher terms.
⛽ Oil prices tumbled more than 9% last week on deal optimism, hitting a six-week low, while the national average for regular unleaded gasoline remained elevated at $4.34 per gallon. WTI crude posted its steepest weekly decline since mid-April.
🌽 Corn futures fell roughly 7 cents Friday, with the Dec26 contract settling at $4.75—its lowest since mid-April—pressured by weak crude oil and favorable Corn Belt growing conditions. Soybeans edged lower while wheat took a sharp hit on ample global supplies despite ongoing Plains drought damage.
🌧️ Weekend rains hit the western Corn Belt, Plains, and Southeast, but the central Corn Belt saw little to no moisture. The 7-day forecast calls for widespread Plains rainfall and decent coverage in the western and central Corn Belt, though the eastern Corn Belt may stay dry for another week.
📦 Weekly corn export sales came in at 40 million bushels, down 52% from the prior week, while soybean sales totaled 11 million bushels and wheat posted a marketing year low. Notably, China has yet to book any new-crop US soybean purchases.
📊 Money managers were heavy sellers last week, offloading 82k corn contracts, 14k soybean contracts, and 13k SRW wheat contracts. Since early May, funds have shed a total of 133k corn contracts.
🐛 A New World screwworm case was detected just 31 miles from the US border in a sheep, marking the closest confirmed detection yet. If the parasite enters the US cattle supply, it could further tighten already historically low herd numbers and push beef prices even higher.
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🌧️☔ Excessive rainfall across major agricultural regions in China is raising concerns about potential crop damage, with heavy precipitation expected to persist through the end of May and into early June. Prolonged wet conditions have delayed wheat development, flattened fields, and are creating favorable conditions for pests and disease. 🌾📉
🤫🌽 Unconfirmed rumors suggest China may reduce tariffs on grain imports, potentially increasing the likelihood of US purchases. A White House fact sheet from May 17th indicated China could buy $17 billion in US non-soybean ag products annually, and Bloomberg previously reported discussions around possible corn purchases. 💵🤝
📈🫘 Soybean futures rallied Thursday, with the Nov26 contract gaining nearly 13 cents to settle at $11.94/bu, while the Dec26 corn contract rose roughly 5 cents to settle near $4.82/bu. Wheat futures were narrowly mixed, as traders appear to have largely priced in poor US winter wheat conditions and are shifting focus toward ample global supplies. 🌍⚖️
🕊️💣 The US and Iran have reached a preliminary agreement to extend their ceasefire by 60 days, though President Trump has yet to approve the deal. Key US demands include reopening the Strait of Hormuz and a halt to Iran's nuclear program, while Iran seeks sanctions relief and access to frozen assets. 🛢️📜
🛢️📊 Crude oil prices edged higher early Thursday following overnight clashes but faded during the session, with WTI rising just 0.3% to around $89/barrel. Ongoing military exchanges between the US and Iran continue to highlight the fragility of the ceasefire. ⚔️😬
🌵🗺️ The USDA's weekly drought monitor showed improvements in Kentucky, southern Ohio, and southern Indiana following heavy Ohio Valley rainfall, while conditions worsened across northern Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and northern Iowa. Severe drought continues to grip much of the High Plains, with roughly 90% of Nebraska experiencing some level of drought. 🌾😰
⛽📉 US ethanol production dipped last week but remained at a seasonal high, with weekly output at 1.09 million barrels per day — up 5.1% vs. the same week last year. Ethanol stocks climbed to 24.97 million barrels, and margins across the Corn Belt remain robust at 10 to 45 cents positive. 💪🌽
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🌾 India is ramping up urea imports ahead of peak planting season, but despite buying at nearly double pre-conflict prices, the country still faces a significant supply shortfall. Surprisingly, the tender announcement failed to rally global urea markets, as traders are more focused on potential Chinese export resumption and hopes for a Strait of Hormuz peace deal.
☮️ The US and Iran are struggling to finalize a peace deal, with Trump expressing dissatisfaction over current terms and warning that strikes could resume. Despite cautious optimism pushing WTI crude down to the high $80s earlier this week, overnight tensions have pushed spot prices back into the $90–91/bbl range.
🌽 Corn futures hit their lowest level in over a month, dropping nearly 5 cents to close around $4.78/bu as crude oil's sharp selloff weighed heavily on the market. Wheat posted its fifth straight day of losses despite poor US winter wheat conditions, with Chicago and KC contracts both settling lower.
🇧🇷 Brazilian farm bankruptcies have surged tenfold since 2021, prompting banks to tighten lending terms and seize assets even during bankruptcy proceedings. Consolidation appears to be the likely outcome, with larger operations absorbing smaller farms squeezed by low commodity prices, high rates, and rising input costs.
⛽ The year-round E15 bill faces an uphill battle in the Senate, as it's widely considered unlikely to pass as standalone legislation. The inclusion of a Small Refinery Exemptions restructure has complicated its path, though it could still advance if attached to the farm bill, defense authorization, or an appropriations bill.
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🌽 Corn and soybean futures fell Tuesday on a favorable weather outlook, with drier forecasts expected to boost planting progress across the Corn Belt. Wheat extended its losing streak for a fourth straight session as Plains rainfall came too late to meaningfully help crop conditions.
🛢️ Oil surged nearly 3% after US forces struck Iranian missile sites and mine-laying vessels in southern Iran, reigniting Middle East tensions. Iran vowed retaliation and called overnight strikes near Bandar Abbas a ceasefire violation, though WTI futures are trading lower this morning.
🌾 USDA's latest crop progress report showed winter wheat conditions hit their worst rating since records began in 1986, with just 26% rated good-to-excellent. Corn and soybean planting both came in ahead of their five-year averages, signaling solid early-season field progress.
🌍 The European Commission cut its 2026/27 soft wheat forecast to 126.9mmt, down 6% from last season, amid a heat wave battering western Europe. Traders are also watching whether soaring fertilizer and energy costs tied to the Iran conflict could shift global acreage away from corn.
📦 US corn export inspections jumped 13% week-over-week and 11% year-over-year, while soybean shipments beat pre-report expectations. Wheat shipments came in near the lower end of estimates, running 35% below the same week last year.
⚖️ President Trump is pushing to keep the CFTC in control of prediction markets and crypto, as Minnesota becomes the first state to ban prediction market platforms. Critics are raising conflict-of-interest concerns given Trump's family financial ties to both industries.
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🛢️ Oil prices tumbled Monday as Trump teased a US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — but Iranian officials quickly pumped the brakes on the optimism. Hours later, US and Israeli jets struck Iranian vessels in the strait, yet crude stayed lower while equities pushed higher.
🌽 Grain futures dipped overnight on the oil selloff but clawed back some gains, with the Dec26 corn contract notably holding key trend support. Keep an eye on the central Corn Belt — extended models show it staying bone dry well into the 15-16 day forecast period.
📊 The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net sellers of corn and beans last week, offloading 2k and 10k contracts, respectively. Funds did flip to buyers in SRW wheat, picking up 15k contracts on the week.
🚜 Some farmers are calling for more financial aid as fuel and fertilizer costssurge,e tied to the Middle East conflict—though the real pain may not hit until fall input-buying season for 2027. Year-round E15 legislation is also back on the table as producers look for any relief they can get.
📦 USDA flashed some bullish export news Friday, with nearly 20 million bushels of corn sold to Mexico and 4 million more to unknown destinations. Soybean meal also moved, with 252,000mt sold split across the current and next marketing year.
🐄 Friday's Cattle on Feed report leaned bearish, with May 1 inventories up 2% year-over-year and April placements coming in 6% above last year. Drought across the Plains is forcing early cattle sales, even as the domestic cowherd sits at its lowest level in 75 years.
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🌱 Brazil's Agricultural Crisis – Soaring fertilizer prices tied to the Iran war are squeezing Brazilian farmers, with fertilizer use expected to drop nearly 4% by year-end. Soybean acreage growth is set to hit its slowest pace in nearly 20 years, while corn and cotton acreage may actually decline.
🚜 John Deere Feeling the Pain – Deere's ag segment saw a 14% drop in Q2 sales, with US/Canada sales forecast to fall 15-20% this year. South America's outlook has also worsened dramatically, with sales now expected to slide 15% versus a prior forecast of just 5%.
🌽 Grain Futures Under Pressure – Corn, soybeans, and wheat all closed lower Thursday, weighed down by a lack of confirmed Chinese purchases and favorable Corn Belt weather. Grain markets are tracking crude oil closely, with futures ticking slightly higher this morning alongside a $2-3/bbl rise in WTI.
🌧️ Drought Monitor Update – USDA's latest data shows wildly uneven precipitation across the Corn Belt and Plains, with conditions worsening in Kentucky, northern Illinois, and parts of the Dakotas. A staggering 70% of winter wheat acres remain under drought stress nationwide.
📦 Strong US Export Sales – Corn export sales crushed expectations at 2.1 MMT for the week ending May 14, up 71% from the prior four-week average. Soybean and wheat sales also came in near the top of expectations, though China has still yet to book any new-crop US soybeans.
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🛢️ Oil prices tumbled over 5% on Wednesday as Trump announced US-Iran negotiations are nearing a final stage, sending WTI crude to $98.26 per barrel. Analysts warn the market may be underestimating the long-term risk of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.
🌾 Wheat, corn, and soybean futures all closed lower, pressured by falling crude prices and uncertainty over China's confirmation of a $17 billion agricultural purchase deal. China's Ministry of Commerce acknowledged expanded trade but did not confirm the figure cited by the White House.
🏦 The Federal Reserve is signaling a more hawkish stance, with officials suggesting rate hikes may be necessary if inflation — currently at 3.8% — continues to climb. Markets are now pricing in a 51% chance of a 25-basis-point hike by December, putting incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh on a collision course with Trump's push for cuts.
⛽ US ethanol production hit a seasonal high last week at 1.11 million barrels per day, up 12% from the same period last year. Margins across the Corn Belt remain strong, ranging from 10 to 40 cents positive.
🥩 Cargill locked out roughly 1,700 workers at its Fort Morgan, Colorado meatpacking facility after employees rejected a contract proposal, halting slaughter operations that were processing around 4,000 head per day. This comes as President Trump calls on the DOJ to investigate major meatpackers for potential price collusion, with packers currently losing upwards of $300 per head.
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🌾 Australia's wheat production is facing a major decline — dry conditions and soaring input costs from the Iran war could slash output by up to 41%, potentially dropping to just 21mmt. As the world's third-largest wheat exporter, this represents a serious global supply shock.
🌱 Brazilian soybean acreage growth is hitting a 20-year low — rising fertilizer costs tied to Middle East conflict are slowing expansion to under 1 million new acres for 2026/2027. Meanwhile, this season's crop is on track to be a record 180.1mmt.
🤝 China and the US agreed to cut agricultural tariffs — both nations confirmed a reciprocal tariff reduction framework, though specific products and dollar figures remain vague. As always with China, watch what they do, not what they say.
📉 Corn futures dipped while soybeans edged higher — the Dec26 corn contract settled near $4.98 as traders waited for more details on the China deal. Nov26 soybeans added 2 cents to close at $12.03.
🏭 The USDA is pushing to boost domestic fertilizer production—permitting is being fast-tracked, and tariffs on Moroccan phosphate imports may be removed to ease costs. An economist will also be hired specifically to monitor farm input prices.
📈 Treasury yields are surging to near 20-year highs — the 30-year yield broke above 5.18% as war-driven inflation fears and massive bond issuance rattle markets. Analysts warn the Fed may be forced to raise rates rather than cut them.
🌽 Lawmakers are calling for immediate farmer relief — Senator Boozman supports the USDA's long-term fertilizer plans but says near-term financial aid is urgently needed. He also renewed his push for a new farm bill and year-round E15 sales.
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Grain and soybean futures surged Monday after a White House fact sheet revealed China committed to purchasing $17 billion in US agricultural products annually for the next three years — though key details and formal Chinese confirmation are still pending. Corn, soybeans, and wheat all rallied sharply as funds bought aggressively across the board.
US winter wheat conditions continued to slide, with good-excellent ratings hitting their lowest level since 1996. The top five HRW-producing states are averaging just 9.6% good-to-excellent and 62.6% poor-to-very-poor, with the USDA pegging the HRW crop at 515 million bushels—down 36% from last year. Corn and soybean planting are both running ahead of average, and the forecast favors additional Corn Belt rainfall over the next five days.
Brazil's inflation outlook is worsening, now projected at 4.5% by year-end—well above the central bank's 3% target—largely driven by higher oil prices tied to the Iran conflict. Brazilian farmers continue to face steep borrowing costs, with private loan rates exceeding 17%.
US corn export inspections dipped last week but remain strong on the season. Soybean inspections were up 115% year-over-year, with China accounting for roughly 42% of the week's total. Wheat shipments fell below expectations.
President Trump delayed a planned strike on Iran following requests from Persian Gulf allies, though WTI crude still settled up ~3% at $108.66/barrel. The administration extended a sanctions waiver on Russian oil sales for another 30 days amid ongoing pressure heading into the midterms.
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🌾 China Agrees to $17B Annual US Ag Purchases Through 2028 🇺🇸🇨🇳
China has agreed to purchase at least $17 billion annually in US agricultural goods through 2028, following President Trump's meeting with President Xi Jinping in Beijing last week. 📋 These purchases are in addition to China's existing commitment to buy 25mmt of US soybeans annually through 2028. The two countries also plan to establish trade and investment boards, signaling closer economic coordination. ⚠️ However, China's commerce ministry described the agreement as preliminary, with no specific details provided. Click HERE to view the White House fact sheet.
💭 Our Take: Dollar-benchmarked agreements are harder to track than volume-based ones. The last time China bought $17B+ in non-soybean US products was in 2021–2022, both years tied to large corn purchases. While skeptics point to the unfulfilled Phase One deal, it's worth noting China did complete its more recent 12mmt soybean commitment in full.
🌧️ Corn Belt Rainfall Update: Parts of the Corn Belt received rain over the weekend, with the largest totals in southern Iowa, northern Missouri, and southeastern Nebraska. Radar remains active this morning over Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, and Wisconsin. CropProphet (via Euro model data) projects 175% of normal rainfall over the next 7 days and 104% of normal during the 8–14 day period. ☔
🫘 NOPA April Crush Data: NOPA members crushed 211.86 million bushels of soybeans in April — down 6.3% from March but up 11.4% year-over-year and a record for the month of April. The result came in below the trade estimate of 214.03 million bushels. Crush margins hit their highest level in three years, boosted by a soybean oil rally tied to rising crude prices amid the Iran war. 🛢️ End-of-month soybean oil stocks fell to 1.95 billion pounds, down 4.5% from March but up 28% from last year.
📊 CFTC Commitment of Traders (Week Ending May 12): Large money managers were net sellers of 49k corn contracts, though the net long position of 296k contracts remains the second-largest since February 2025. Funds were also net sellers of 5k soybean contracts and 9k SRW wheat contracts on the week.
📦 USDA Flash Sale: US exporters sold 155,000mt of soybean cake and meal to Italy for delivery during the 2025/2026 marketing year.
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🇺🇸🇨🇳 Trump meets Xi in China—traders were hoping for a BIG soybean announcement, but the news fell flat… at first. Treasury Secretary Bessent says the existing 25MMT/year deal through 2028 is enough, sending soybean futures tumbling 24 cents to $11.84/bu. BUT—Trump hinted China will buy "a lot" of US farm products, and Trade Rep. Greer expects a double-digit billion-dollar ag purchase agreement over the next 3 years. Stay tuned. 👀
🌾 Kansas Wheat Tour delivers tough news — average yield projected at just 38.9 BPA, a 3-year low and well below the 5-year tour average of 45.5 BPA. Total production estimated at only 218M bushels, down from 338.5M last year. Drought abandonment could hit 20%. 😬
🌧️ Drought continues to expand across the Plains — Nebraska is in rough shape, with 94% of the state now under some level of drought, including 10% in exceptional drought. Winter wheat is taking the hardest hit, with 71% of acres affected nationwide. 🔥
⛽ E15 expansion debate heats up — The National Corn Growers Association says expanded E15 sales could mean $5+/acre in net benefits for corn & soybean farmers. The American Soybean Association flip-flopped this week—first opposing it, then supporting it with conditions. 🌽
📦 Export sales disappointing—Corn sales down 50% week-over-week, soybeans hit a second straight marketing year low. Wheat was the bright spot, up 70% from the prior week. 📉📈
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🌍 Trump & Xi Meet in Beijing — What It Means for Ag Markets
Trump and Xi sat down for a 2+ hour meeting in Beijing, and the agricultural world is watching closely. China renewed import licenses for hundreds of US beef plants 🐄, making beef exporters the early winners. Soybean traders, however, were left wanting more — no new purchase agreement was announced, sending grain markets mostly lower. Headlines are still developing, so stay tuned.
🌽 E15 Clears the House — But the Senate Fight Is Just Beginning
The House passed year-round nationwide E15 sales 218–203 with bipartisan support. With ethanol trading at its widest discount to gasoline in 20 years, the economic case is strong — but oil-state senators and even the American Soybean Association have concerns. It's going to be a battle.
🌾 Kansas Wheat Tour Paints a Tough Picture
Yield estimates are coming in well below last year across both northwest and southwest Kansas. Northwest came in at 38.3 bpa vs. 50.5 last year. The final state estimate drops today—don't miss it.
🌧️ Rain Is Coming to the Corn Belt
1-2" of rainfall is on the way for much of IL, IA, IN, MO, OH, MN, ND, and SD—welcome news for newly planted fields. But temperatures are also running 4.2°F above normal, so it's a mixed bag for crop development.
🌱 EU Moves to Tackle Fertilizer Crisis
Nitrogen prices in Europe are up 40% since December. The EU is expected to announce a plan next week to stockpile fertilizers and support affected farmers ahead of winter planting season.
🥩 JBS Profits Crater 56%
Tight US cattle supplies crushed JBS's North American beef margins, dragging net income down to $220.6 million. Meanwhile, their Brazilian operations hit record Q1 sales. The meat giant also flagged rising corn prices ahead due to weather and fertilizer costs.
⛽ Ethanol Production Hits Seasonal High
Weekly output hit 1.08M barrels/day — up 6.1% year over year. Margins remain healthy at 10–45 cents positive across the Corn Belt, even as stocks tightened to 24.87 million barrels.
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🌾 US wheat production is headed for its lowest level since 1972 — the USDA's May WASDE pegged the 2026/27 crop at 1.56 billion bushels, down 21% from last year and 10% below trade expectations. HRW wheat is forecast at just 515 million bushels, the lowest since 1957, as severe drought continues to devastate the Plains—and wheat futures hit their daily trading limits following the report.
🫘 US soybean production is projected at 4.44 billion bushels — the second-highest on record — even as soaring input costs tied to the Middle East conflict weigh on farmers. Both US and global new-crop soybean carryout came in smaller than expected, giving bulls something to hold onto.
🌽 Corn production is forecast at 16 billion bushels, down 6% year-over-year but slightly above trade guesses. Both corn and soybean futures closed higher on the day despite the broadly mixed USDA data.
🤝 US and Chinese officials are deep in talks over Chinese purchases of American corn, soybeans, sorghum, and DDGs — with timing and volume still unresolved ahead of the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing tonight. Farmers want binding commitments, not social media posts, after recent informal announcements proved unreliable.
🏛️ Senator John Hoeven is pushing for $17 billion in additional farm aid, including $3 billion for specialty crops, likely as a supplemental disaster relief package. The support is aimed at keeping current producers afloat and bringing the next generation back to the farm.
📈 Inflation hit a 3-year high in April, with the CPI up 3.8% year-over-year—driven largely by energy costs surging nearly 18% annually amid the Iran war. The national average for regular unleaded now sits at $4.50 per gallon.
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🌾 US winter wheat is in crisis — only 28% of the crop is rated good-to-excellent, the worst rating since 1996 (excluding 2022), while 40% sits in poor-to-very-poor condition. The top 5 hard red winter wheat states are averaging a devastating 59% poor-to-very-poor rating as drought grips the Plains.
📈 Grain futures surged Monday ahead of the USDA's big WASDE report and the highly anticipated Trump-Xi summit. Corn, soybeans, and wheat all pushed higher as traders bet on revived Chinese purchases and monitored worsening crop conditions.
⛽ E15 ethanol could go year-round nationwide if a House vote passes this week, backed by bipartisan support — but the oil industry is pushing back hard. With wholesale ethanol at its widest discount to gasoline in 20 years, the economic case for E15 has never been stronger.
🌽 The USDA dropped its first look at 2026/27 crop balance sheets today — and with ample supply and bearish headwinds, prices could face downward pressure. Initial corn and soy yield estimates are pegged at 183 bpa and 53 bpa, respectively.
💊 Mosaic is slashing phosphate production by ~10% due to sulfur supply disruptions tied to the Iran conflict squeezing margins from both sides. Additional cuts could be coming if Middle East tensions don't ease soon.
🐄 Trump pumped the brakes on beef import quota removal after fierce backlash from ranchers and lawmakers—cattle futures whipsawed on the news. A similar policy last fall failed to lower beef prices and cratered the cattle market instead.
🚢 US corn and soybean export inspections remain robust, with corn up 30% year-over-year and soybeans up a stunning 49% vs. last year. China alone accounted for 52% of soybean inspections, and flash sales of corn to Mexico and South Korea were confirmed Monday.
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🚨 Trump rejected Iran's counterproposal to the latest US peace offer, calling their demands—including gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the waterway—"totally unacceptable." Iran resumed attacks Sunday targeting the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait; Trump travels to China this week to urge Beijing to pressure Tehran toward a deal. Crude oil futures are trading higher on the news. 🛢️
📊 CFTC COMMITMENT OF TRADERS (Week ending May 5)
🌽 Corn: Funds were net buyers of 79k contracts, bringing the net long to 345k — the largest since Feb 2025 and 84% of the modern-era "max" net long.
🫘 Soybeans: Funds were net buyers of 37k contracts, bringing the net long to 214k—the largest since Dec 2025 and 89% of the modern-era "max" net long.
🌾 SRW Wheat: Funds were net sellers of 21k contracts on the week.
📈 FRIDAY MARKET RECAP
🫘 Soybeans were sharply higher — Nov26 +16¢ to ~$11.90/bu—on optimism that China may make a small purchase ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting later this week. 🌽 Corn followed — Dec26 +4¢ to ~$4.94/bu—supported by elevated crude oil and the ongoing US-Iran conflict. 🌾 Wheat also gained on crude strength and persistent drought concerns.
📋 USDA WASDE — Tuesday, 11am CST
USDA releases its monthly Crop Production & WASDE report Tuesday, including our first look at new crop (26/27) US and world balance sheets. USDA is expected to use Feb Ag Outlook yields (corn 183.0 bpa / beans 53.0 bpa) and March acreage numbers (corn 95.3M ac / beans 84.7M ac). With ample supply projections and several bearish factors in play, the outlook leans to the downside.
🏦 FED & MACRO
Goldman Sachs now expects the first rate cut in December 2026, followed by another in March 2027 — both later than previously forecast — as elevated energy costs keep core inflation near 3%, well above the Fed's 2% target. Goldman also lowered its US recession probability to 25%, down 5 points, though still above the pre-Iran-war estimate of 20%.
⛽ FUEL PRICES
National average gasoline sits near $4.52/gal this morning, up sharply from $3.14/gal a year ago. Diesel sits near $5.64/gal vs. $3.52/gal a year ago, approaching the all-time record of $5.82 set in June 2022.
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🌾 Wheat futures tumbled Thursday as KC HRW led the selloff, dropping nearly 20 cents, while SRW held up better with only a 5-cent loss. Rain hit parts of western KS and eastern CO, but many on the ground say it may be too little, too late. 👀 The Kansas Wheat Commission crop tour is coming up next week!
🌽 Corn and soybeans bounced back late Thursday after hitting daily lows, with Dec26 corn recovering from $4.83 to close near $4.895/bu. Nov26 soybeans also clawed back about 9 cents from their lows.
💣 Geopolitical tensions flared near the Strait of Hormuz as US and Iranian forces clashed Thursday. No ships were hit, and a ceasefire technically remains in place — but WTI crude is trading near $94/bbl this morning after bottoming at $89.85/bbl. Iran is expected to respond to a US peace proposal within days. 🛢️
🇧🇷 Brazil's corn crop is shrinking. Agroconsult pegged production at 140.5mmt, down 7% year-over-year, with the key second crop on track to fall nearly 10%. USDA sits at 132mmt — a big gap between the two estimates.
🌧️ Drought continues to grip the Plains. 70% of US winter wheat acres are now in drought, and conditions deteriorated further in NE, KS, and OK last week. The Corn Belt stayed mostly dry, which helped planting progress.
🚢 A rare hantavirus outbreak on a cruise ship has health officials monitoring dozens of passengers across at least 5 US states. The Andes virus strain is unusual because it can spread person-to-person. WHO says overall public risk remains low. 🦠
📉 Export sales came in soft. Corn sales totaled 1.3mmt for the week ending April 30 — down 15% week-over-week. Soybean sales hit a marketing year low at just 141,900mt, while wheat sales also missed expectations at 78,800mt.
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🌱💰 Fertilizer companies are cashing in on the Iran conflict. CF Industries and Nutrien both reported roughly 20% increases in quarterly sales as nitrogen fertilizer prices surged. Both companies also posted substantial gains in adjusted EPS. Since the conflict began, urea prices in New Orleans have jumped about 36%. 📈 Meanwhile, US natural gas prices haven't risen as sharply as other regions, allowing fertilizer producers to capture stronger profit margins. Despite elevated prices, fertilizer demand is expected to stay strong as farmers still need nutrients to maintain crop yields.
☮️🛢️ The US and Iran may be nearing a peace agreement. Washington submitted a one-page memorandum of understanding outlining a plan to gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the US blockade on Iranian ports. Iran has not yet accepted the proposal, with leadership indicating parts of the deal are unrealistic. 📉 The announcement sent stocks surging and oil prices tumbling—US crude fell roughly 7% to settle near $95/bbl. The nearby Jun26 WTI contract trades near $93/bbl this morning after peaking above $105/bbl earlier this week. That $12/bbl selloff in less than 24 hours weighed heavily on the grain complex.
🌽📉 Grain futures tumbled Wednesday on peace deal prospects. The Dec26 corn contract fell nearly 11 cents to settle at $4.90/bu. The Nov26 soybean contract declined 14 cents to close near $11.76/bu. Traders are watching next week's Trump-Xi meeting, though the likelihood of China returning to buy large volumes of US soybeans remains low. 🌾 Wheat also moved lower—Jul26 Chicago wheat fell ~11 cents to $6.17/bu, while Jul26 Kansas City wheat slipped 3 cents to $6.87/bu.
⛽ US ethanol production ticked up last week. Weekly output came in at 1.02 million barrels per day, up 1% vs. the prior week but down 2.2% vs. the same week last year. Ethanol stocks rose to 26.02 million barrels, +1% week-over-week and +2.5% year-over-year. Ethanol margins across the Corn Belt remain strong at 5 to 45 cents positive based on Reuters data.
🇧🇷🌱 Brazil's soybean acreage is projected to increase only slightly in 2026/2027. Rising fertilizer costs driven by the Middle East conflict are limiting expansion incentives. Additionally, the potential for a strong El Niño is weighing on acreage decisions — this weather pattern would raise drought risk in northern and west-central regions while increasing excessive rainfall risk in southern Brazil.
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Oklahoma's winter wheat crop is on track for a historically poor season, with crop tour estimates coming in at 47.8 million bushels — nearly half the 10-year average and down 55% from last year, despite farmers planting 6% more acres. Dry conditions continue to grip the region, with 84% of the state experiencing some level of drought. The Kansas wheat tour is up next, where similarly disappointing numbers are expected. Meanwhile, the Texas wheat crop is battling both drought and a widespread disease outbreak tied to the wheat curl mite, with 56% of the crop rated poor to very poor.
In Europe, corn futures surged to a near two-year high amid supply concerns, with French acreage expected to fall ~15% and Romania's crop projected to be its smallest in over a decade. High fertilizer costs linked to the Strait of Hormuz closure are a major driver. Back in the US, corn and soybean futures pulled back Tuesday on farmer selling and lower crude prices, while wheat futures slipped on forecasted Plains rainfall — though it's unlikely to make a meaningful dent in drought damage.
Gas prices are surging, with the national average hitting $4.48/gallon — up $1.32 from a year ago — and diesel sitting at $5.66. Crude remains above $100/barrel with no resolution in sight on the US-Iran front. Farmer sentiment dipped in April per the Purdue/CME Ag Barometer, with input costs and availability remaining top concerns. And ADM raised its 2026 outlook, citing biofuel policy tailwinds and expectations of China returning to normal soybean buying in Q4.
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Crude oil prices surged more than 4% Monday after Iran targeted US vessels and struck the UAE, reigniting fears that the four-week ceasefire could collapse. The move sent soybeans up 14 cents to near $11.97/bu and corn up roughly 6 cents to near $5.05/bu, with wheat also advancing on expected Plains rainfall.
US winter wheat conditions remain historically poor—the top 5 HRW states (KS, OK, TX, CO, NE) are rated just 14% good-excellent with 52% poor-to-very-poor. Nationally, 37% of the crop is rated poor-to-very-poor, well above the 5-year average of 27%. Corn planting reached 38% complete, ahead of the 34% average, while soybean planting hit 33%, well above the 23% average.
On the export front, corn inspections came in strong at 80 million bushels — up 22% week-over-week and 25% vs. last year. Soybean and wheat shipments came in near the low end of expectations. China accounted for roughly 45% of weekly inspections.
The US is urging China to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Treasury Secretary Bessent noted China buys ~90% of Iran's energy exports. Trump and Xi are expected to meet May 14th. Meanwhile, China ordered its companies to disregard US sanctions on private refiners tied to Iranian oil purchases.
Tyson Foods posted $260M in net income last quarter, up sharply from $7M a year ago, despite a $240M loss in its beef segment driven by tight cattle supplies. Chicken profit hit $505M. Ag Secretary Rollins flagged the administration's ongoing investigation into the big four meatpackers.
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🌽 Frost risk is rising across the Corn Belt this week as temperatures trend below normal, particularly in northern areas. Heavy rain is also expected to slow planting progress. Storm systems are forecast to bring rainfall across the central and southern Plains, though wheat yield damage in those regions has likely already occurred. The Northern Plains remain mostly dry but face below-normal temperatures and freeze potential.
📈 Corn futures rallied Friday on rising fertilizer prices tied to the Iran war, which traders fear could reduce yields. The July '26 contract gained nearly 6¢ to settle near $4.80/bu, while the Dec '26 contract traded above $5.00/bu for the first time this year. Cold, wet conditions across the central and eastern Corn Belt added to bullish sentiment. Soybeans and wheat also closed higher.
📊 CFTC Commitment of Traders (week ending Apr. 28): Large money managers were net buyers of 83k corn contracts — the net long of 266k is the largest since late March. Funds were net sellers of 11k soybean contracts. SRW wheat saw net buying of 20k contracts, pushing the net long to 12k—the largest since June 2022. Managed money also holds a record net long in spring wheat and is near-record net long soybean oil.
🚢 Iranian grain imports have collapsed as vessels idle at sea rather than risk transiting the Strait of Hormuz amid the US blockade. War-risk insurance costs are prohibitive. Iran, heavily dependent on imported feed grains for its meat and dairy sectors, is seeing staple food prices surge — eggs up 118% and bread up 80% since the war began. Rerouting attempts have not offset lost volumes.
🇲🇽 Mexico replaced its agriculture minister. President Sheinbaum named Columba López Gutiérrez to replace Julia Berdegué, who moves to an advisory role as the US, Mexico, and Canada review the USMCA ahead of a July 1 deadline on whether to extend the agreement 16 years or let it expire. Berdegué had also been leading New World screwworm talks with the US — an issue with little improvement. Mexico is the largest buyer of US corn.
🌽 USDA flash sale: US exporters sold 148,240 MT (≈6 mil bu) of corn to unknown destinations — 78,240 MT for 2025/26 delivery and 70,000 MT for 2026/27 delivery.
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Corn futures slipped Thursday as favorable Corn Belt weather and crude oil weakness weighed on prices. The Dec26 contract settled near $4.94, unable to break through the key $5.00 level. Wheat saw sharp losses, dropping ~16 cents on Plains rainfall forecasts, while soybeans finished mostly unchanged.
The USDA drought monitor showed meaningful improvement in the Corn Belt—drought coverage fell from 36% to just 11% since the start of the year. However, conditions are worsening in Nebraska and Kansas, and winter wheat continues to struggle under dry conditions and recent freezes.
The House passed the farm bill 224–200, reauthorizing ag and food programs for five years. The E15 year-round sales provision was stripped from the bill after pushback from oil-state Republicans. A standalone E15 vote is now expected separately.
Kalshi will not offer 24/7 grain markets after pushback from industry groups and regulators. Grain contracts will align with traditional exchange hours. Meanwhile, the CFTC is reportedly considering more frequent publication of its Commitment of Traders report.
Weekly export sales were strong for corn at 1.6mmt — up 21% week-over-week — with Colombia as the top buyer. Soybean sales were soft at 258,100mt. Wheat sales came in near the top of expectations at 226,100mt, up 75% from the prior week.
The S&P 500 closed above 7,200 for the first time, gaining 1% to a new all-time high. Strong earnings and AI optimism drove the rally, even as Q1 GDP came in at 2% — below the expected 2.2%.
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Farm bill votes are underway—amendments Wednesday night, final vote expected Thursday. The E15 fuel controversy nearly derailed it, but that plan's been dropped. Bipartisan support is building despite House Democrat leadership opposition, as farmers facing rising costs and bankruptcies need relief now.
Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith is pushing to cut fertilizer costs with the Lowering Input Costs for American Farmers Act, targeting tariffs on phosphate imports from Morocco — which controls over 70% of global phosphate reserves. The American Farm Bureau and American Soybean Association are on board.
Oil surged nearly 7% Wednesday to $106.88/barrel as Strait of Hormuz disruptions look increasingly long-term. Trump says the blockade holds until Iran agrees to a nuclear deal — and Tehran isn't blinking. Markets are starting to price in a real supply shock, not just geopolitical noise.
Wheat futures pulled back slightly after hitting a near two-year high, settling at $6.53/bu on the July26 contract. Drought concerns across the Plains remain, and the forecasted rain is expected to miss the driest areas. Corn and soybeans both closed higher.
Bunge raised its 2026 profit outlook after a strong Q1 beat—higher soybean oil prices, solid crush margins, and rising biofuel demand driven by new EPA mandates are all tailwinds. Trade tensions and supply chain risk remain the key unknowns.
US ethanol production dipped to 1.01M bpd last week, down 3% week-over-week. Stocks fell to 25.88M barrels. Despite the drop, Corn Belt ethanol margins remain solidly positive at 15–40 cents.
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🌧️ Illinois Historic Rainfall — Severe thunderstorms dropped a record 3.6" in Springfield and 2.1" in Peoria Tuesday, the highest single-storm totals since 2002. Flooding concerns are mounting across the region, with some corn and soybean growers already discussing replant options.
🌾 Wheat Surges on Plains Drought — The May26 Chicago and Kansas City wheat contracts jumped 28 and 30 cents Tuesday to close at $6.49 and $6.97/bu, respectively, on intensifying drought stress across the U.S. Plains. Forecasted rainfall is expected to miss the hardest-hit western areas, where yield losses are likely already underway.
🌽 Corn Gains, Beans Slip — May26 corn gained roughly 5 cents to close near $4.65/bu — its highest since late March — supported by near-term Corn Belt rainfall, strong export demand, and a 3.7% surge in crude oil to near $100/barrel. Soybeans edged lower on technical selling and expectations of large South American supplies, while the Dec27 corn contract topped $5.00/bu for the first time.
🥩 Smithfield Margins Under Pressure — Rising diesel and packaging costs tied to the Middle East conflict are squeezing Smithfield's profitability, sending shares down roughly 8% Tuesday despite a Q1 earnings beat. The company plans to offset input cost headwinds through price increases and efficiency improvements, and also noted higher beef prices amid historically tight cattle supplies.
🌱 EU Rejects S. American Soy Shipments — Dutch authorities detected non-approved GMOs in four Argentine and two Brazilian soybean meal shipments, triggering withdrawals and potential disruption to the EU's largest soy suppliers. The situation could shift demand toward the U.S. and Ukraine as Europe enforces its strict GMO import regulations.
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Gas prices are climbing again, hitting a national average of $4.17/gallon, with analysts warning of $4.20 within days as oil hovers near $100/barrel amid the US-Iran conflict and near-shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. Emergency oil reserves worldwide are being drawn down rapidly, raising supply alarm bells.
US winter wheat conditions remain historically weak — the top 5 HRW states are averaging just 13.8% good-excellent, with Nebraska's crop sitting at a staggering 65% poor-very poor. Corn and soybean planting are running ahead of the average pace.
Wheat futures rallied Monday on crude strength, a weaker dollar, and dry Plains conditions. Chicago May26 wheat settled near $6.22, KC May26 near $6.67, with both HRW and HRS posting fresh highs. Corn and beans also closed higher, with Dec26 corn hitting fresh 1-month highs overnight.
The Iran war is triggering a major fertilizer crisis—over half of the Middle
East's urea production has been disrupted, with roughly 30% of global urea trade affected by the Strait of Hormuz closure. Farmers worldwide may be forced to cut application rates, threatening yields and global food security.
The Trump administration is expected to unveil a fertilizer investment plan this week, targeting both short-term price relief and long-term domestic production reshoring, while the USDA and DOJ investigate potential price gouging.
US corn export inspections came in at 65 million bushels for the week ending April 23 — solid but down slightly week-over-week. Soybean shipments were up 37% vs. last year, with China taking ~39% of inspections. Wheat shipments came in near the top of expectations at 13 million bushels.
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🌾 A 128-acre Iowa farm in Louisa County sold for $2.1 million at auction — roughly 35% above statewide and county per-acre averages — drawing 46 registered bidders from 12 states. A 79-acre tract of highly productive cropland led the way at $21,050/acre, reflecting strong demand driven by scarcity and farmland's track record of ~12.7% average annual returns from 1970–2021.
🌵 Severe drought is tightening its grip on the US High Plains, with 70% of the winter wheat crop now drought-stressed — the highest coverage since December 2022. Poor pasture conditions and wildfire losses are also forcing cattle producers to liquidate herds, with El Niño rains expected too late to help winter wheat or summer grazing.
🏛️ The USDA is doubling disaster aid payments this week, increasing the SDRP payment factor from 35% to 70% for approved 2023–2024 claims. The application deadline has also been extended to August 12, and the Trump administration is expected to announce measures to address surging fertilizer prices in the coming weeks.
📊 Large money managers were net buyers of 30k corn contracts and 19k soybean contracts for the week ending April 21, per the CFTC's Commitment of Traders report. Funds were net sellers of 3k SRW wheat contracts on the week.
🇮🇷 US-Iran negotiations were called off over the weekend after President Trump canceled talks that were set to take place in Pakistan. Iran is demanding the US lift its Strait of Hormuz blockade before talks resume, while the White House says the blockade will remain in place as maximum economic pressure.
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🌾📈 Wheat surges on drought: Prices jumped to multi-week highs as worsening dryness grips the Plains, with 70% of winter wheat in drought. Corn edged higher, while soybeans slipped.
🌦️➡️🌵 Mixed weather pattern: Rain improved parts of the Corn Belt, but drought worsened elsewhere—especially the High Plains and Kentucky. Nebraska conditions sharply deteriorated, with 56% in extreme drought.
🛢️⚠️ Oil spikes on tensions: Crude climbed over 3% near $96 as Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz restricted, while fragile ceasefires keep geopolitical risk elevated.
🌱💰 Pulses gain favor: Farmers are shifting to peas and lentils as a rare profit opportunity, driven by strong protein demand and lower input costs.
🚢📊 Exports mixed but solid: Corn sales dipped week-over-week but remain strong overall; soybean and wheat sales showed mixed trends, with steady global demand.
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🌽 Lawmakers are pushing to overturn the EPA's biofuel blending mandates for 2026 and 2027 using the Congressional Review Act. The effort is considered a long shot and is unlikely to gain traction.
🫘 Soybean futures fell Wednesday as soybean oil volatility and fading rumors of Chinese buying weighed on the market. Corn edged higher on strong export demand and favorable rainfall forecasts across the Corn Belt.
🌾 Wheat futures turned lower after two days of gains as expected rainfall in drought-affected areas pressured prices. Cotton pulled back after hitting a near two-year high, with crude oil prices and widespread drought keeping the longer-term outlook supportive.
💊 The USDA is actively working to address surging fertilizer costs, with Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins in daily contact with the White House. Russia extended its fertilizer export quotas through year-end amid global supply tightness tied to the Iran war.
⛽ US ethanol production dipped 7% week-over-week but remains above year-ago levels, with margins staying healthy across the Corn Belt. Ethanol stocks rose to 26.95 million barrels.
📦 USDA reported a third consecutive flash sale of corn this week, with 130,000 metric tons sold to unknown destinations. The weekly total now stands at 425,000 metric tons, or 17 million bushels.
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✅ Corn & soybean futures recap — what's driving the move higher
✅ Trump extends Iran ceasefire — and what it means for crude oil & biofuels
✅ Senate eyes $15–$20B in additional farmer aid — but is it actually coming?
✅ Biofuel demand surging as crude oil climbs 30%+ since the start of the Iran war
✅ Kalshi & Polymarket moving into crypto perpetual futures — could this force CME's hand on 24/7 commodity markets?
✅ ADM crude corn oil spill on the Mississippi River at Red Wing, MN
✅ USDA flash sales — 12 million bushels of corn sold to Colombia and unknown destinations
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🌾 US winter wheat conditions continued to deteriorate last week, with only 30% of the crop rated good-excellent — the lowest reading for this week since 2023 and third lowest in a decade. 📉 The situation is even more dire in top HRW-producing states like Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, where just 14.6% of the crop is rated good-excellent and nearly half sits in poor-very poor condition.
🌽 Corn planting surged to 11% complete, outpacing the 9% historical average, while soybeans rocketed to 12% planted — more than double the 5% average. 🌱 Spring wheat planting also matched its historical average at 12%, signaling strong early-season momentum across the board.
💰 The Trump administration is eyeing tariff revenue as a tool to boost domestic fertilizer production, with Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins outlining plans to expand capacity within 12–18 months. 🏭 In the meantime, USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden is pressing fertilizer companies for concrete, actionable expansion plans rather than open-ended talks.
🇧🇷 Brazil's soybean harvest is nearly in the books at 92% complete, right in line with last year's pace, while favorable weather is supporting the developing safrinha corn crop. ☁️ However, CropProphet's Euro model data suggest Brazil's second corn areas could see just 47% of normal rainfall over both the 1–7 and 8–14 day forecast windows.
🇨🇳 China's agriculture ministry is projecting a 6.1% drop in soybean imports this year, with declines reaching 26% by 2035 as Beijing pushes hard for greater food self-sufficiency. 🥩 Pork, beef, and dairy imports are also expected to fall year-over-year, while total grain production is forecast to climb 5.3% by 2035.
🚢 US corn export inspections came in at 1.7 MMT for the week ending April 16, near the top of pre-report estimates, while soybean shipments hit 748,678 MT — up 34% versus the same week last year. 🌾 Wheat stole the show with inspections of 518,141 MT, a jaw-dropping 90% jump from the prior week, with China accounting for roughly 60% of total weekly inspections across all commodities.
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🌍 US Fertilizer Diverted Overseas — Traders are snapping up imported urea at the Port of New Orleans and flipping it to global markets as soaring international prices create a massive arbitrage opportunity. CME Gulf Urea peaked at $720/ton last week, and domestic farmers are feeling the squeeze with no relief in sight.
⚔️ Middle East Tensions Escalate—The US Navy fired on and boarded an Iranian container ship in the Gulf of Oman over the weekend, throwing the fragile ceasefire into chaos despite Trump's claims of a near-finalized deal. WTI crude surged ~$5/bbl this morning to $89/bbl, though that's still well off last week's $106 peak.
🌧️ Planting Disruptions Across the Corn Belt—Heavy weekend rains soaked Missouri, Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Indiana—with some pockets seeing over 4" in 72 hours—throwing a wrench in corn and soybean planting progress. Meanwhile, HRW wheat country stayed bone dry and dealt with a brief freeze, adding more stress to an already strained crop outlook.
📊 Funds Selling Corn in Size — Large money managers dumped 58k corn contracts in the week ending April 14, bringing total selling since the late-March peak to 127k contracts. They still hold a net long of 153k contracts, with modest selling also seen in soybeans and SRW wheat.
🐄 Cattle Markets Rattled by Border Rumors — Cattle futures hit limit-down on speculation that Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins would announce a reopening of the US-Mexico feeder cattle border — but no announcement came, with screwworm confirmed just 200 miles from the line. The April 1 Cattle on Feed report came in neutral-to-friendly, with placements down 7% and heifers still at 37% of inventory—signaling no serious herd rebuilding just yet.
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🌧️ Heavy rainfall is disrupting planting across the Corn Belt, with some Iowa farmers potentially sidelined for another week. Speculation about acreage shifts to soybeans due to fertilizer costs is not universal, as many producers pre-booked inputs ahead of the Iran conflict.
🏜️ USDA's latest drought monitor shows improved conditions in parts of the northern Corn Belt thanks to recent rains, but Kentucky, southern Illinois, and parts of Kansas and Nebraska continue to dry out. A staggering 68% of the winter wheat crop is now under drought — the worst reading since December 2022.
🌾 Wheat futures surged Thursday on fears of a weekend freeze hitting Plains winter wheat areas on top of already parched conditions. The Kansas City May contract climbed ~17 cents to close around $6.42/bu, its highest level in over a year.
💰 Agricultural groups are pushing the Trump administration for roughly $15 billion in farm aid as part of a Middle East supplemental spending package. The proposal includes $10 billion for specialty crops, while lawmakers are also eyeing the Homegrown Fertilizer Act to boost domestic production.
📦 US corn export sales came in strong at 1.4 MMT for the week ending April 9, up 14% from the four-week average with Japan leading purchases. Soybean sales hit a marketing year low at just 248k MT, while wheat sales also came in near the low end of expectations.
🕊️ President Trump expressed optimism Thursday about a potential US-Iran deal, citing Iranian concessions on nuclear ambitions and a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iran has not publicly confirmed these terms, and many global leaders expect any formal agreement could take up to six months.
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Fertilizer prices are climbing, corn futures are rallying, and Kalshi just entered the commodity trading game—here's everything moving ag markets this week.
The Trump administration is weighing support packages for farmers dealing with elevated fertilizer costs, while the DOJ investigates potential price collusion in the sector.
Could Kalshi's new 24/7 corn, soybean, and wheat prediction markets actually shake up the CME? We dig into what that could mean for retail and institutional traders alike.
On the crop side, early planting has been disrupted by heavy Corn Belt rainfall—but USDA data shows both corn and soybeans are still running ahead of the five-year average. May corn settled near $4.51, its highest point in over a week.
Plus, ethanol production hits another seasonal high (up nearly 10% year-over-year).
NOPA's March crush data sets a near record despite missing estimates, soy oil stocks hit a 13-year March high, and the S&P 500 closes above 7,000 for the first time ever.
All that plus E15 legislation updates, Corn Belt weather maps, and ethanol margin charts.
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Rising input costs are squeezing US farmers as fertilizer and fuel prices surge following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. A recent Farm Bureau survey shows 94% of respondents say their financial situation has worsened or stayed the same compared to last year — with smaller operations facing the steepest challenges.
Wheat futures pushed sharply higher Tuesday on deteriorating crop conditions across the Plains. Hot and dry weather has taken a toll, with 54% of Texas winter wheat rated poor to very poor, and Oklahoma close behind at 48%. HRW wheat country is expected to stay dry for at least another 7-10 days.
Tensions between the US and China are heating up, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent accusing Beijing of hoarding oil amid the ongoing Iran conflict. China has yet to purchase a single bushel of US soybeans for new crop delivery, despite earlier talk of major long-term commitments.
On a more bullish note for South American supply, Conab raised its outlook for Brazil's soybean crop to a record 179.15mmt, with exports also revised to a record 115.4mmt.
Optimism about peace talks sent crude oil tumbling nearly 8% Tuesday, settling around $91/barrel, with WTI trading near $92.50 early this morning. The Nasdaq jumped 2% and the S&P 500 gained 1.1% on hopes that Iran negotiations could resume within days.
The USDA also reported flash sales Tuesday—316,000mt of corn to Mexico and 120,000mt to unknown destinations.
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In today's update: The DOJ is investigating potential price fixing in the US fertilizer industry, with farmers asked to provide confidential input on the practices of Nutrien, Mosaic, CF Industries, Koch, and Yara. Winter wheat conditions hit their lowest rating since 2023 amid widespread drought across key HRW states. Soybean futures tumbled Monday on expectations of a shift in planted acres away from corn. The US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is rattling energy and input cost markets, with crude oil topping $99/barrel. Brazil's soybean harvest is nearly wrapped up at 87% complete. And weekly export inspections showed strong soybean shipments — up 47% year-over-year — while wheat came in at the low end of expectations.
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🚨 US BLOCKADES STRAIT OF HORMUZ 🚨
The US is blockading the Strait of Hormuz following failed peace talks in Pakistan — and markets are already feeling it. 🛢️ WTI crude surged nearly $8/bbl overnight, with the May '26 contract trading near $105. Grains caught a big bid too, with some contracts gapping higher at the open. 📈
💥 The blockade targets ships entering or departing Iranian ports, countering Tehran's plan to impose transit tolls on vessels. Any country that helps Iran? Hit with a 50% tariff. And Trump isn't ruling out strikes on Iranian infrastructure. This war is far from over.
🌱 Trump is also keeping a close eye on fertilizer prices, calling out the "fertilizer monopoly" on Truth Social and vowing to protect US farmers as costs surge amid the conflict.
📊 CFTC CoT Recap (week ending Apr. 7):
Funds were net sellers across the board—47k corn, 23k soybeans, and 12k SRW wheat—largely tied to last week's ceasefire announcement. We're also launching a NEW Daily Fund Tracker chart starting today! 👀
🌽 Friday Futures Recap:
Corn May '26 settled at $4.41—down 3¢ on the day, off ~11¢ on the week (4th straight weekly loss)
Soybeans hit a 2-week high on a flash meal sale to Italy 🇮🇹 (Italy's biggest single US soybean meal purchase since 2019!)
Wheat ended lower on ample global supplies & soft export demand
🌧️ Weekend rains mostly missed key HRW wheat areas in western Kansas and Oklahoma. The 7-day forecast doesn't offer much relief for those dry western zones. Crop ratings drop this afternoon — stay tuned.
⚡ Flash Sales Friday:
125,640mt of corn → unknown destinations
100,000mt of soybean cake/meal → Italy
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🌽 Corn is drifting lower despite a strong crude oil market, with funds trimming their net long position from recent highs. Ample old crop stocks and sufficient 2026 acreage estimates are keeping the bears in control.
🌾 Wheat tumbled to its lowest level since early March after a bearish USDA report showed surging US and world ending stocks. Drought remains a concern in HRW wheat areas, but the market is struggling to find bullish footing.
🫘 Soybeans are holding up better, with large money managers defending a hefty net long position near 190k contracts. US balance sheets could get tight with current acreage estimates — any weather hiccup could be a game changer.
🇧🇷 Brazil is eyeing a jump in its ethanol blend from 30% to 32% to ease consumer fuel costs amid rising global oil prices. The move would boost sugarcane demand and help mills struggling with oversupply and tight margins.
📊 USDA WASDE kept US corn and soybean ending stocks steady while raising wheat stocks to their highest since 2020. World corn stocks were revised higher but remain at an 11-year low, while world soybean stocks were trimmed below expectations.
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Markets on edge as the US-Iran ceasefire hangs by a thread 🚨
Iran is already alleging violations before talks have formally begun. Peace negotiations are tentatively set for Pakistan this Saturday, but the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. Crude cratered 16% to settle near $94 🛢️—and Goldman says don't expect the low $80s until the strait fully reopens.
The dollar had its worst day since January, dropping 0.8% as investors fled safe havens 💵📉. Markets are now pricing in ~25% odds of a Fed rate cut by year's end.
Wheat got slammed—Chicago May down ~18 cents, KC May off ~12—hit by falling crude and rain forecasts across the Plains 🌾☔. Corn closed lower; beans bucked the trend and finished higher. Watch the western HRW areas — they may miss the forecasted rains.
Super El Niño on the horizon ☀️🌧️ — models show it developing July/August, peaking in November, and lasting into 2027. Generally favorable for the Corn Belt, but watch for planting delays and disease pressure.
USDA WASDE drops at 11am CST today 📊 — expectations are quiet, corn/soy stocks largely unchanged, wheat slightly lower. Post-report breakdown video coming shortly after!
Ethanol production hit a seasonal high at 1.12M bpd, up 5% YoY 🌽⚡. Margins remain solid across the Corn Belt at 15–40 cents positive.
Lots moving today—stay locked in. 👇
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🚨 BREAKING: US-Iran Ceasefire SHOCKS Markets | Oil Crashes $22, Grains Tumble & What It Means for Farmers
Just hours before planned US strikes on Iranian infrastructure, a last-minute two-week ceasefire deal brokered by Pakistan sent shockwaves through global commodity markets. Oil plunged nearly 20% overnight—but is the relief rally built to last? 💥
We break down everything you need to know:
🛢️ Oil & Energy — WTI crude cratered from $113 to $91/bbl overnight. The Strait of Hormuz is reopening, but Iran's proposed $2M-per-vessel transit fees add major uncertainty. Will prices stay elevated?
🌽 Grain Markets — Corn and wheat are under heavy pressure while soybeans are staging a recovery. With funds holding massive net long positions of 210K contracts in corn and 190K in soybeans, will traders defend or liquidate?
📈 Stocks Surge — S&P 500 up 2.5%, Nasdaq up nearly 3% on the ceasefire news.
💸 Inflation Watch — Consumer inflation expectations jumped to 3.4%—the biggest monthly spike in a year. Friday's CPI report will be a major market mover.
🌾 Farmer Sentiment — The Purdue/CME Ag Barometer climbed 11 points in March. Cautious optimism is returning to farm country.
🇷🇺 Russia Wheat — Argus raises its crop forecast to 88.7 MMT. More competition ahead for US wheat exports.
🇨🇳 China Soy Shift—China is rapidly cutting US soybean dependence, with fermented feed alternatives now at 8% of industrial usage and climbing. A potential 6.3% drop in imports could be coming.
📊 Stay ahead of the markets — like, subscribe, and hit the bell so you never miss a daily market update! 🔔
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🌾 Crop Markets Update | Wheat Ratings Sink, Cotton Surges & Iran Tensions Rattle Markets
Winter wheat is struggling — rated just 35% good-to-excellent, the lowest since 2023 and well below the 5-year average. 🌧️ Rainfall is on the way for parts of the Plains, but the west remains dry. USDA projects US wheat acreage to hit its lowest level since 1919. 📉
🌿 Brazil's soy harvest is 82% done, but dryness is threatening the second corn crop. Rain in the forecast this week could help.
🇺🇸 Cotton futures surged to their highest since December as drought grips 88% of US cotton areas—even as the USDA projects a jump in intended plantings.
⚠️ Geopolitical risk is front and center — Trump's Iran ultimatum deadline hits tonight at 8pm EST. Markets are watching closely.
📦 On the export front, corn shipments came in strong at 79M bushels — up 24% year-over-year. Soybeans beat expectations too.
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Oil prices exploded Thursday with WTI crude jumping 11% to $111.54/barrel—the biggest single-day gain in 6 YEARS! 😱 Gas prices are already feeling the heat at $4.11/gallon nationally, and the Iran situation is FAR from over. Trump has given Iran until Tuesday to open the Strait of Hormuz... the clock is ticking. ⏳
In today's update we cover:
🛢️ Oil's massive surge & what it means for corn prices
🌽 Funds dump 22k corn contracts—but still sitting on HISTORIC net longs
🫘 Soybean funds add 13k contracts with China buying
🌾 Wheat funds go net LONG for the first time since June 2022!
🌧️ Rain returning to HRW wheat country—bearish relief incoming?
🌡️ Drought update—High Plains baking while the Corn Belt gets relief
📦 Export sales: Corn strong, beans soft, wheat hits a marketing year LOW
🥩 JBS strike OVER — 3,800 workers return as cattle market watches closely
💥 Russia-Ukraine tensions flare again with a ship sunk in the Sea of Azov
CPI data drops Friday with inflation expected at 3.4% — don't miss it! 📊
👇 Drop your questions in the comments & don't forget to LIKE and SUBSCRIBE for daily market updates!
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🚨 MARKETS IN CHAOS: Trump's Iran War Warning Sends Oil Soaring & Stocks Plunging
President Trump dropped a bombshell in a primetime address—warning of intensified strikes on Iran over the next 2-3 weeks. Markets responded instantly: WTI crude surges past $107/barrel (+$7) while stocks sell off hard. We break down exactly what this means for commodities and your portfolio.
📉 GRAIN MARKETS GET WHIPSAWED
Wheat futures took a beating Wednesday—Chicago May26 down ~19¢ to $5.98/bu, KC May26 off ~22¢ to $6.14/bu—as Trump hinted the Middle East conflict could be nearing its end. Meanwhile, western Plains dryness continues to threaten crops even as rain arrives in the Southeast. Corn and soybeans also slid on the war-end headlines.
🌽 CHINA MAKES A HISTORIC CORN MOVE
For the first time in over 15 years, COFCO booked Argentine corn — a major signal of shifting global trade flows. China has booked ZERO US corn for the current marketing year. What does this mean for US ag exports going forward?
🇧🇷 BRAZIL BREAKS RECORDS
StoneX raises its Brazil soybean forecast to a record 179.7 MMT, while the USDA sits at 180 MMT. Brazil's corn outlook gets a slight trim to 135.7 MMT. We've got all the charts you need.
⛽ ETHANOL UPDATE
Weekly US ethanol production dipped 3.7% week-over-week to 1.08M bbl/day, but margins across the Corn Belt remain strong at +15¢ to +40¢ — a bright spot in an otherwise turbulent week.
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🌽 US farmers are slashing corn plantings by 3.5% as the Iran war chokes off fertilizer supplies — but the USDA's own data may be nearly worthless with a record-low survey response rate of just 37.6%! Soybean acres are actually rising 4.3%, and grain stocks are up big—so the full picture is more complicated than the headlines suggest.
🌾 US wheat acreage is crashing to its lowest level since 1919, with spring wheat hitting a shocking 56-year low! Dry weather hammering Kansas HRW wheat regions and tightening supply forecasts are sending futures flying—watch this space closely.
🛢️ Oil had a wild March, surging a massive 51%—its biggest monthly gain since 2020—but pulled back 1.5% Tuesday as Trump hinted at a US withdrawal from Iran within weeks! Even if peace comes fast, experts warn it could take months for oil shipments to normalize due to heavy infrastructure damage.
🤝 The high-stakes Trump-Xi summit is still happening, now locked in for May 14–15 in Beijing despite the Iran conflict throwing a wrench in global diplomacy! China has been buying US soybeans at a modest pace this year but has yet to commit to the massive new-crop purchases that were rumored.
🚢 The world is scrambling to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to fertilizer shipments in a humanitarian deal modeled after the famous Black Sea grain corridor! With fertilizer flows blocked, global food prices are under serious pressure — and the stakes for food security worldwide couldn't be higher.
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🌱 Farmers Ditch Corn for Soybeans — Here's Why It Matters
The Iran war is reshaping American agriculture. With urea prices up 40% and fuel costs surging, US farmers are pivoting—corn acreage is set to fall 4.5% while soybeans climb 5.2%. Spring wheat? On track for its lowest plantings since 1970. 📉
Meanwhile, soybean oil is surging 🛢️, crude oil hit $102/barrel for the first time since 2022, and the Strait of Hormuz crisis is keeping energy markets on edge.
All eyes are on today's USDA Prospective Plantings & Quarterly Grain Stocks report at 11am CST—the stocks numbers could be the real market mover. 👀📊
Farming #Commodities #CornMarket #Soybeans #CrudeOil #USDA #AgMarkets #GrainMarkets
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Welcome back! Let’s break down the biggest ag market movers right now 🌽📉
🌱 Biofuel Mandates Jump
EPA sets record 25.82B gallons
70% of waived volumes reassigned
Foreign feedstocks penalized after 2028
Supportive long-term, not bullish today
🏛️ Trump’s Farmer Push
Pushing additional aid 💰
New SBA loan guarantees
Targeting DEF rollback + lower equipment costs
Trade talk strong… but soybean exports lag
📊 Funds Get Active
Corn: +49k contracts (big long build)
Beans: slight selling
Wheat: shorts trimmed significantly
🌧️ Weather Watch
Heavy Corn Belt rains incoming
Could slow early planting progress
HRW wheat may miss key moisture
🌽➡️🌱 Acreage Shift Brewing
Corn acres seen down ~4–5%
Soybeans up ~5%
Fertilizer costs exploding (urea +40%)
War impact not fully in USDA data yet
🚢 Export Check
Flash sale: 105k mt soybeans
Total sales still down ~18% YoY
👉 Bottom line: supportive policy + tighter inputs, but market already priced it in.
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🌎 Markets & Macro
Grains, oil, and global headlines all moving fast—stay sharp.
🌽 Grain Update
Corn, soybeans, and wheat action you need to know.
⛽ Energy & Biofuels
Ethanol, crude oil, and policy shifts impacting demand.
📈 What It Means
Key takeaways to help you stay ahead of the market.
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President Trump is headed to China 🇨🇳 for a high-stakes meeting with Xi, and markets are already reacting. Soybeans surged on the news, while corn and wheat followed higher amid fertilizer and acreage concerns.
The EPA also issued another E15 summer waiver ⛽🌽, keeping ethanol demand supported—for now. But with plants already running near capacity, how much more corn can actually be used?
Meanwhile, fertilizer prices are rising fast 💥, USDA funding is being cut 💰, and ethanol production/margins are improving 📈.
👉 Plenty to unpack across energy, policy, and grain markets.
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🌽 E15 Decision Coming?
Another summer waiver may drop today, allowing E15 sales and supporting ethanol demand—not permanent, but still bullish short-term.
🛢️ Oil Still Wild
Crude jumped, then pulled back as war headlines flip hourly. No real clarity yet—volatility remains high ⚡
🌾 Fertilizer Concerns Growing
Prices are surging, and many farmers haven’t locked supply. Washington is scrambling for solutions ahead of Friday’s ag event.
🌍 Global Supply Tightening
Russia just restricted exports, and Australia is cutting wheat acres—potential supply issues ahead.
👉 Energy + fertilizer + policy = big market risk (and opportunity)
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Welcome back! Today we’re breaking down a wild mix of geopolitics 🌍, energy markets 🛢️, biofuels policy 🌽, and key ag fundamentals 🌾👇
🛢️ Oil Market Whiplash
Oil prices dropped sharply Monday as optimism grew that the Iran conflict could cool off. WTI crude plunged more than 10%, hitting its lowest level in nearly two weeks after President Trump signaled progress in talks and ordered a temporary pause on strikes. That said, the situation remains volatile—Iran denies direct talks, and attacks in the region continue. Bottom line: headlines are still driving massive swings in energy and commodity markets.
🌽 Biofuels Policy Incoming
The Trump administration is expected to roll out new biofuel blending quotas by month-end, likely tied to Friday’s White House agriculture event. EPA head Lee Zeldin confirmed updated Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) requirements are coming soon, with more rulemaking to follow. Key issues include diesel volumes, RIN values, and blending mandates—plus ongoing debate over year-round E15. This is a big one for corn demand and ethanol margins.
🌾 Wheat Weather Watch
HRW wheat areas across the Plains remain dry, with little relief expected over the next 10 days. Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, and the southern Plains are all under pressure, though longer-range models hint at rain returning. Current Kansas ratings sit at 46% good/excellent and 19% poor/very poor. Weather risk is building—but forecasts beyond a week are always shaky.
🚢 Strong Export Demand
US export activity was solid last week:
Corn shipments hit 1.7 mmt (strong vs. last year)
Soybeans came in at 1.1 mmt, with China taking 60%
Wheat exceeded expectations at 458k mt
Demand continues to hold up well, especially on the corn and soybean side.
🐖 China Demand Concerns
China’s hog sector is under serious pressure. Pork prices have collapsed to multi-year lows, and producer margins are shrinking fast. Weak consumer demand and rising feed costs are forcing Beijing to step in—cutting herd sizes and buying pork for reserves. This has major implications for global feed demand, especially soymeal.
🇧🇷 Brazil Harvest Update
Brazil’s soybean harvest is lagging, now at 68% complete vs. 80% last year. Dry weather helped recently, but rains are coming back into the forecast. Meanwhile, second crop corn planting is nearly finished at 97%. Timing and logistics here remain critical for global supply flows.
⚡ Flash Sales
USDA confirmed fresh demand:
102,000 mt of corn sold to Mexico (new crop)
161,120 mt of soybeans sold to Mexico (new crop)
Steady demand continues to show up on the daily wire.
👍 If you’re in agriculture, these moving pieces matter—energy, policy, weather, and global demand are all tightly connected right now.
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⚠️ Middle East tensions are escalating fast… and markets are watching closely.
🌍 Geopolitics
Trump issues a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran over the Strait of Hormuz—threatening strikes on power infrastructure if it’s not reopened. Iran pushes back, raising fears of broader conflict and long-term shipping disruptions.
🛢️ Energy vs. Grains
Crude oil holding firm despite the headlines, while grain markets slipped Friday. Corn, soybeans, and wheat all pressured by profit-taking, a stronger dollar, and improving US weather outlooks.
📊 Fund Positioning
Funds keep piling into corn (largest net long since Feb ‘25), trimming soybeans, and reducing wheat shorts. Positioning remains a key driver heading into spring.
🌱 Global Ag Developments
China eases restrictions on Brazilian soybeans after recent trade tensions—potentially smoothing export flows during peak shipment season.
⛽ Diesel & Inflation
Diesel prices surge above $5—fueling inflation concerns across agriculture, trucking, and the broader economy.
🐄 Cattle Market
Cattle on Feed report leans bearish with larger-than-expected placements, though context matters vs. last year’s low numbers.
👇 Drop your thoughts in the comments—are grain markets too cheap here?
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🌍 War & Bullish Setup
Bank of America says ag markets may be underpricing the Iran war. Prolonged conflict could tighten fertilizer supplies and spark a new grain bull cycle 🌽📈
⛽ Energy Shock = Fertilizer Risk
Damage to Qatar LNG + soaring nat gas prices = major nitrogen concerns. Urea futures hit multi-year highs… big implications for crop costs ⚠️
🌽 Grains Higher
Corn, beans, and wheat all pushed higher Thursday on energy + fertilizer fears. New calendar-year highs in corn contracts 🚜
💰 Funds Still Long
Funds were net buyers again—holding large long positions in both corn and soybeans 👀
🛢️ Oil Surge
Crude spiked sharply this week amid Middle East attacks. Higher energy = higher input costs + biofuel support 🔥
🏛️ Fertilizer Bill
New bipartisan “Fertilizer Transparency Act” aims to improve pricing visibility and boost domestic production 🇺🇸
🌧️ Weather Update
Better moisture in the Corn Belt, but worsening drought in the Plains. Mixed outlook heading into planting season 🌦️
👉 If you’re watching inputs, energy, and geopolitics… this could get interesting fast.
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💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments—bull market coming?
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🌾 Wheat Leads the Rally
Wheat futures surged on weather concerns across the Plains—winter damage risk + hot/dry forecasts gave bulls a reason to step in.
🌽 Corn & Beans Follow + Funds Active
Corn and soybeans moved higher alongside crude oil 📈
Funds were aggressive buyers again—corn and beans both sitting with big net long positions.
📊 Acreage Debate Heating Up
Private estimates are creeping higher on corn acres, but fertilizer costs could throw a wrench into everything.
March 31 numbers? Probably noisy. June will matter more.
🚢 Jones Act Waived
The administration temporarily lifted shipping restrictions to ease fertilizer and fuel logistics—but it may be too late to impact spring costs.
🌍 China Trip Delayed
Trump’s China visit pushed back amid geopolitical tensions—trade talks (and ag demand expectations) remain in limbo.
⛽ Ethanol Slips
Production dipped, stocks rose, and margins are hovering around breakeven across the Corn Belt.
💵 Fed Holds Rates Steady
No rate change. Markets slid after the announcement as uncertainty tied to global conflict remains high.
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🌽 White House Biofuels Event & RVO Decision
President Trump is hosting a major ag event next week with farmers and biofuel producers 🇺🇸
Comes just ahead of the 2026–2027 blending mandate decision
Potential increase in mandates = stronger demand for ethanol & biodiesel
⚠️ Refiners pushing back, warning of higher fuel prices
Timing matters with Middle East conflict already pressuring energy markets
💸 Rising Farm Costs Becoming Political
War-driven input inflation is hitting farmers hard 🚜
Fertilizer + fuel costs surging right before planting
Margins already tight due to weak grain prices
Could impact rural sentiment ahead of midterms 🗳️
Higher farm costs = potential food inflation pressure 🍔
🌾 Wheat Market Update
Wheat futures slipped Tuesday 📉
Chicago wheat ~ $5.90, KC wheat ~ $6.07
Cold temps + ongoing dryness in the Plains
Forecast: hot + dry → then cooldown
Russia still undercutting U.S. on price 🌍
🌍 Trump Delays China Trip
Trade tensions stay in focus 🇺🇸🇨🇳
Visit pushed back 5–6 weeks
Trump ties trip to China helping reopen Hormuz
Treasury says delay is logistical
⏳ Delays progress on ag trade talks (soybeans!)
Meanwhile:
Strait of Hormuz effectively closed 🚢
Iranian attacks continue across the region
Energy markets remain on edge
🇧🇷 Brazil Soybean Export Problems
Brazil facing fresh export disruptions 🚫
China tightening inspection standards
Issues: insects, damage, treated beans
Cargill paused some shipments
Local soybean bids have collapsed in some areas
Officials heading to China to try and fix it 🤝
👉 This could shift demand back toward the U.S. if it drags on
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🌾 Grain markets got slammed Monday, with soybeans limit down after President Trump suggested he may delay his meeting with Xi Jinping. Corn and wheat also moved sharply lower, while expanded soybean limits point to more volatility ahead.
🚛 Brazil’s soybean freight costs are rising fast as higher oil prices push diesel prices higher during peak export season. That’s creating logistical stress, hurting bids, and raising the risk that buyers shift demand to the US or Argentina.
🛢️ Crude oil pulled back Monday but bounced overnight as Middle East attacks continued and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz remained high. At the same time, China is tightening fertilizer exports, adding even more fuel to an already bullish global fertilizer story.
🫘 NOPA reported a record February soybean crush, while soybean oil stocks jumped to the highest level in years. Export inspections were solid overall, with soybean shipments beating expectations and China taking the majority of the load.
🥩 In the cattle market, a strike at JBS in Greeley adds another wrinkle to an already tight beef supply situation. Thanks for watching—subscribe, like this video, and drop your thoughts in the comments below.
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🌾 Grain Markets & Policy Update
President Trump told the Financial Times he “may delay” a summit with Xi Jinping amid the Strait of Hormuz closure. Trade talks between U.S. and Chinese officials continued this weekend, and China reiterated its commitment to 25 mmt of U.S. soybean purchases annually for the next three years, though soybeans fell early Monday after comments about “non-soybean row crops.”
📊 Fund Positioning (CFTC)
Speculative money continues to pile into ag markets. Funds bought 147k corn contracts, pushing the net long to the largest since March 2025. Funds also added to soybeans and SRW wheat, and private estimates suggest funds may have been record net long soybeans by Friday’s close.
🌾 Wheat Weather Concerns
Chicago wheat rallied Friday on fund buying, higher crude oil, and drought concerns across the Plains. Forecasts show little rainfall in HRW regions over the next two weeks while cold temperatures threaten SRW areas this week.
🇧🇷 Brazil Soybean Harvest
Brazil’s harvest is about 57% complete, behind last year but near the five-year average. Conab trimmed its crop estimate slightly to 177.85 mmt, still a record, citing excessive rain and uneven weather.
🧪 Fertilizer Market Developments
The U.S. approved Venezuelan fertilizer sales to help offset disruptions tied to the Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz closure. Despite the move, analysts say limited capacity means little short-term relief, with NOLA urea already up sharply.
🏛️ Policy & Farmer Relief
Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins says the administration is exploring multiple options to reduce fertilizer costs and acknowledged that additional farmer aid remains on the table if conditions worsen.
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🧪 Fertilizer Stocks Surge
Shares of CF Industries hit a record high Thursday, jumping as much as 14% intraday—its biggest one-day gain since 2020. CF controls roughly 40% of the North American nitrogen fertilizer market. Profit margins are likely expanding as nitrogen prices surge while the company benefits from cheap North American natural gas. Many global competitors are facing much higher gas costs or supply disruptions. Speculative buying may also be contributing. Shares of Nutrien, which controls about 22% of the North American nitrogen market, rose nearly 8%.
It’s worth noting that most ammonia and UAN used in the US is produced domestically, but the US relies heavily on imported urea—roughly 65% of supply comes from imports.
🛢️ CME CEO Warns on Government Oil Intervention
CME Group CEO Terry Duffy warned that government intervention in crude oil futures would be a “biblical disaster,” saying markets do not react well when governments attempt to influence pricing. The comments follow reports that the US Treasury may be considering actions—including possible futures market activity—to push oil prices lower. Some traders have pointed to a series of large unexplained trades this week and questioned whether government involvement could be possible.
WTI crude plunged from $119/bbl Monday to $77/bbl Tuesday before rebounding sharply.
⛽ Fuel Prices Spike
Retail gasoline prices have surged to the highest level since mid-2023. GasBuddy estimates the national average near $3.65/gal, up more than 70 cents from last month. California leads the nation at roughly $5.39/gal, while Washington, Oregon, Nevada, and Arizona all average above $4.00.
AAA estimates the national diesel average near $4.89/gal, up $1.22 from last month. Gasoline accounts for roughly 4% of the CPI basket, meaning a 25% increase in gasoline prices could theoretically add about 1% to inflation.
🚢 Oil Jumps as Strait of Hormuz Disruption Continues
Crude oil rallied sharply again Thursday. May WTI gained $8.48 to close at $95.70 while Brent settled above $100. Two tankers traveling through Iraqi waters were reportedly struck by Iranian explosives, and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said naval escorts through the strait are possible by the end of the month.
🌱 Soybeans Rally to Best Trade Since 2024
Soybean futures posted their strongest trade since May 2024. The expiring March contract traded as high as $12.23 while the most active May contract reached $12.38. The rally has been fueled by optimism surrounding renewable fuel policy, improving US-China trade sentiment, and sharply higher crude oil prices.
Brazilian trade groups are also expressing concern about exports to China. Brazil recently implemented stricter pest and weed inspections after a request from Chinese authorities. As a result, Cargill temporarily halted soybean purchases and shipments to China. Industry groups are now working with officials to resolve the issue and restore trade flows.
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🌱 Brazil Soybean Export Disruption
Cargill has paused Brazilian soybean exports to China after Brazil implemented stricter pest and weed inspections at China’s request. Some shipments have failed the new standards, forcing exporters to halt purchases from farmers and causing local soybean bids to disappear in parts of Brazil.
🛢️ Iran War Drives Fertilizer Concerns
Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast highlighted how the Iran conflict and disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz are pushing fertilizer prices higher—just ahead of spring planting. Rising input costs could eventually translate into higher global food prices.
📈 Grain Futures Rally
Soybeans surged again Wednesday with May beans closing near $12.14. Corn and wheat also gained as crude oil rebounded and geopolitical tensions escalated, while speculation grows that higher fertilizer and fuel costs could influence US acreage decisions.
🤝 US-China Trade Talks Ahead
US and Chinese trade officials will meet in Paris this weekend ahead of President Trump’s planned China visit later this month. Markets are watching closely as analysts suggest new soybean purchases could follow.
🏭 Ethanol Production Jumps
US ethanol output climbed to an eight-week high, while inventories dropped. Margins across the Corn Belt remain solidly positive, providing support to corn demand.
🛢️ Record Strategic Oil Release
The International Energy Agency announced a record 400 million-barrel emergency oil release, but crude still rallied above $88 as markets worry about prolonged Middle East disruptions.
📊 Inflation Holds Steady
US CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year in February, matching expectations. However, the report doesn’t yet reflect the recent surge in energy prices, which could add inflation pressure in the months ahead.
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🌾 Ag Markets Lag the Commodity Boom
Agricultural markets have badly underperformed the broader commodity complex. The Bloomberg Commodity Index has surged past its 2022 peak and is up more than 19% so far in 2026, while the Bloomberg Ag Subindex (grains, softs, and livestock) has gained less than 5%. Recent strength in commodities has been driven first by gold and silver and more recently by energy markets.
🛢️ Oil Prices Swing on Iran War Headlines
Crude oil plunged Tuesday, with WTI falling nearly 12% to $83.45, its biggest single-day drop since 2022. Confusion over tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, talk of easing sanctions on Russian oil, and speculation that the war with Iran could end soon pressured the market. The IEA also proposed what would be the largest oil reserve release in history, adding more downside pressure.
🧪 Fertilizer Supply at Risk
The Middle East conflict is threatening fertilizer supplies ahead of spring planting. The Persian Gulf region accounts for nearly half of global urea exports and about 30% of ammonia exports, and disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz could tighten supply. Higher fertilizer prices may encourage farmers to shift acres away from corn toward soybeans, while rising fuel costs could further increase production expenses.
⛽ Oil Traders Secure Credit
Major commodity trading houses are securing billions in additional credit lines from banks as energy market volatility increases. Higher oil prices raise the value of cargo shipments and can trigger large futures margin calls, increasing liquidity needs across the trading sector.
🌴 Biofuel Supply Risks in Southeast Asia
Shipping disruptions are pushing methanol prices higher in Southeast Asia, threatening biodiesel production tied to palm oil. Indonesia relies heavily on methanol imports from the Middle East, and prolonged supply issues could disrupt its blending mandates. Meanwhile, Chicago Platts ethanol futures have rallied to about $1.81/gal, with US ethanol margins positive by roughly 10–30 cents across the Corn Belt.
📊 USDA Report Mostly a Non-Event
Tuesday’s USDA report contained few surprises. US ending stocks were left unchanged. Global corn stocks increased on larger crops in Brazil, Ukraine, and India, while global wheat and soybean stocks were trimmed slightly. Brazil’s corn crop estimate increased, while Argentina’s corn and soybean crops were reduced.
📉 Bond Traders Turn Bearish
Investors have begun betting against US Treasuries as higher oil prices raise inflation concerns. The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed about 20 basis points since late February, and markets are watching today’s CPI report closely for signals on future Fed policy.
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🇺🇸🪖 War signals easing: Donald Trump suggested the conflict with Iran could be short-lived and nearing an end. He is also considering taking control of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil markets cooled, with crude dropping below $90 after earlier surging above $119. 🌍⛽
🛢️🤝 Global response: Group of Seven energy ministers will meet to discuss releasing strategic oil reserves, and the U.S. may ease oil sanctions on Russia to help stabilize energy prices.
🌽📉 Grain markets pull back: Profit-taking pushed futures lower.
- Corn fell ~7¢ to $4.54/bu (after hitting the highest level since May 2025 earlier in the session).
- Soybeans dropped ~5¢ to $11.96/bu.
- Wheat declined ~14¢ to about $6.03/bu.
The sell-off came as crude oil retreated from overnight highs.
📊📅 USDA report day: United States Department of Agriculture will release the Crop Production and WASDE report (11am CST). Expectations:
- Slight increase in U.S. corn ending stocks 🌽
- Slight decline in soybean & wheat stocks 🌱🌾
- Global stocks mostly unchanged
Traders are more focused on the upcoming Prospective Plantings report later this month.
🚢🌽 Export shipments:
- Corn: 1.5 mmt, down week-to-week but still strong.
- Soybeans: 879k mt, near expectations; China bought ~47% 🇨🇳
- Wheat: 496k mt, well above expectations.
🇧🇷🌱 Brazil harvest update: Soybean harvest is 51% complete, the slowest pace in five years, though still near the average. Dry weather in March has helped progress. Second-crop corn planting is 82% complete.
🥩⚠️ Beef plant strike: Workers at a major JBS plant in Greeley, Colorado (capacity 6,000 cattle/day) plan to strike. Impact may be limited because the industry currently has more slaughter capacity than available cattle, allowing feedlots to shift animals to other plants.
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🌍 Middle East tensions escalated over the weekend as Iran named the son of Ali Khamenei as its new supreme leader. Israel struck oil facilities near Tehran, while Iran threatened attacks on regional energy infrastructure. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut due to missile and drone risks, disrupting energy shipments.
🛢️ Oil markets turned extremely volatile. West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Futures briefly surged over 25% to above $110 before easing to around $101, still sharply higher. Production cuts from Kuwait and Iraq — with more expected — are adding to supply concerns.
🌽 Grain markets rallied alongside energy. Soybeans climbed to about $12.20, corn rose near $4.69, and wheat advanced toward $6.26 as higher oil prices lifted agricultural commodities.
🇨🇳 China signaled stability in U.S. relations. Despite the Iran conflict, Beijing indicated it wants steady ties with Washington ahead of a planned meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, with trade officials set to meet in Paris next week.
📊 Funds turned bullish on grains. According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, money managers bought 65k corn contracts and 16k soybean contracts last week, while trimming 7k SRW wheat contracts.
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🌽 Grains Higher as Oil Surges
Rising crude oil prices supported grain futures Thursday. May corn gained nearly 10¢ to ~$4.54, soybeans climbed nearly 10¢ to ~$11.79, and Chicago wheat rallied about 16¢ to ~$5.84. WTI crude jumped more than 8%, helping lift ag markets. Fresh highs were posted overnight in several corn, soybean, and wheat contracts. 📈
🛢️ White House Weighs Oil Price Measures
The Trump administration is considering steps to cool the recent oil rally, including tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, waiving fuel blending requirements, and even potentially trading oil futures. WTI has surged about 20% since Sunday and moved above $80/bbl for the first time since July 2024. ⛽
🌱 Brazil Soybean Crop Raised
Agroconsult boosted its Brazil soybean crop estimate to a record 183.1 mmt, up 850k from the prior outlook. For comparison: USDA 180 mmt and Conab 178 mmt. 🇧🇷
🚢 Strong Corn Export Sales
US corn export sales impressed at 2 mmt (80 mb) last week, well above expectations. Soybeans and wheat were near the low end of estimates, with China and Mexico the top buyers respectively. 🌎
🌧️ Drought Expands in the Corn Belt
About 38% of the Corn Belt is now experiencing drought conditions, with deterioration across the High Plains.
Corn 51% | Soybeans 53% | Winter Wheat 56% | Spring Wheat 19% | Cattle 57% 🌾
🥩 Senate Bill Targets Meatpacker Structure
Senate Democrats introduced legislation that would limit major meatpackers to processing only one type of meat and impose concentration limits in the beef industry. Critics say it could weaken the supply chain and raise costs for consumers.
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🌧️ Rain Hits the Corn Belt
Rain has returned to the drought-stricken Corn Belt. Over the last 72 hours, a wide band dropped 1–3 inches across parts of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio. Radar remains active this morning, with a strong system stretching from southeast Missouri into southern/eastern Illinois and across Indiana and Ohio.
📉 Grain Futures Slip
Grain markets moved lower Wednesday as attention shifted away from the Middle East conflict. May corn lost nearly 3 cents to around $4.44, May soybeans fell about 1 cent to near $11.70, and Chicago May wheat dropped roughly 6 cents to about $5.68. Ample global supplies, concerns over Chinese soybean demand, and rain forecasts across the winter wheat belt weighed on prices.
⚖️ DOJ Investigates Fertilizer Companies
The US Department of Justice is investigating several major fertilizer producers for potential price collusion. Companies under scrutiny include Nutrien, Mosaic, CF Industries, Koch, and Yara. The probe is in its early stages but has bipartisan support amid concerns over high farm input costs and food prices.
🚢 Strait of Hormuz Traffic Collapses
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly halted. Vessel traffic dropped from more than 100 ships late last week to just a handful early this week. The strait is a critical chokepoint for oil, natural gas, and fertilizer feedstocks, and disruptions have pushed commodity prices higher.
✈️ Fuel Buyers Rush to Hedge
Airlines and shipping firms are rushing to hedge fuel costs as crude prices surge. Many are using call options to protect against further spikes, with jet fuel prices in Europe hitting their highest level since 2022.
🌽 Ethanol Production Update
US ethanol production slipped to 1.1 million barrels per day last week, down slightly from the prior week but still above last year. Stocks increased to 26.34 million barrels. Ethanol margins across the Corn Belt remain positive, ranging from roughly 5 to 35 cents.
📦 Flash Corn Sale
USDA reported a flash sale of 125,000 metric tons (about 5 million bushels) of corn to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year.
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🌍 Iran Conflict & Fertilizer Markets
The war in Iran has led to a partial pause in fertilizer bidding as production curtailments and Gulf shipping disruptions slow movement. The Middle East accounts for about 25% of global urea exports, and US inventories were already tight. If nitrogen equals 10–20% of a corn grower’s costs, a 40% price spike could raise total production costs by 4–8%, which has sparked talk of aggressive acreage switching away from corn.
🚢 US Insurance Backstop for Gulf Shipping
The US will help insure ships traveling through the Gulf as war-risk premiums surge. President Trump ordered the US International Development Finance Corporation to assist with insurance costs and said the US Navy may escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if needed. Officials are also prepared to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve if supply disruptions continue.
💵 US Dollar Surges
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has jumped sharply since the conflict began, marking its strongest two-day rally in nearly a year. Rising oil prices are fueling inflation concerns and could delay Fed rate cuts. Unlike past oil shocks, the US is now a major energy exporter, which has helped support the dollar.
🥩 Brazilian Beef Trade at Risk
A prolonged conflict could disrupt Brazilian beef exports through Middle Eastern shipping routes. About 10% of Brazil’s beef exports go directly to the Middle East, while 30–40% pass through the region en route to Asia and China. If flows are disrupted, the US could become an alternative market.
📊 Farmer Sentiment Improves Slightly
The Purdue/CME Ag Economy Barometer rose to 116 in February, up slightly from January as current conditions improved. However, expectations for the future weakened, and 44% of farmers said their operations are worse off than a year ago.
🌽 USDA Flash Corn Sale
USDA reported a flash sale of 196,000 mt (about 8 million bushels) of corn to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year.
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The war in Iran poses risks to global fertilizer production and supply chains 🌍. The Gulf region hosts some of the world’s largest fertilizer plants, and roughly one-third of global crop nutrients pass through the Strait of Hormuz. While the US imports little fertilizer directly from Iran, it relies heavily on supplies from other Gulf countries shipping through the strait. Fertilizer prices—especially urea—have already risen amid disruption fears. Natural gas prices also moved higher after Qatar temporarily shut down a major facility Monday, adding pressure since gas is a key input for nitrogen fertilizer. Roughly 25% of global anhydrous ammonia exports and 20-25% of global urea exports move through the Strait of Hormuz. Many US fertilizer retailers pulled their offers yesterday due to the uncertainty.
The conflict is also influencing ag markets 🌽🫘. Soybean oil gained as much as 3.9% Monday as higher crude prices boosted biofuel demand. Soybean futures moved lower amid uncertainty regarding Chinese purchases and whether President Trump’s planned meeting with Xi Jinping later this month will occur as scheduled. Corn futures declined on concerns that disruptions to Brazilian shipments to Iran could reduce demand. Wheat futures were also lower as traders gave back last week’s gains while watching whether global grain shipments could be affected.
The conflict is beginning to impact gasoline prices ⛽. WTI crude surged 8.4% Monday to $72.74 per barrel after President Trump suggested the conflict could last longer than a few weeks. According to GasBuddy, the national average gasoline price rose 5 cents Sunday to $2.99 per gallon. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, with tankers avoiding the region as insurers cancel vessel coverage. Shipping rates for oil and gas have surged, and continued disruptions could contribute to broader inflation pressures.
Brazil soybean production estimates were trimmed 🌱. AgRural lowered its forecast to 178mmt from 181mmt and reported harvest progress at 39% as of last week, well behind last year’s 50%. StoneX also cut its estimate to 177.8mmt from 181.6mmt. Both revisions were tied to drought conditions in Rio Grande do Sul.
US ethanol production reached a new all-time high last year ⛽🌽. Output climbed to 16.5 billion gallons in 2025, up 1.7% from the prior year, supported by strong domestic demand and record exports. The national average blend rate hit 10.5%, while domestic consumption increased to 14.3 billion gallons. According to the Renewable Fuels Association, growth reflects expanded E15 sales and could increase further if Congress approves year-round nationwide E15. US ethanol exports jumped 13% year over year to 2.2 billion gallons.
US corn shipments exceeded expectations for the fourth straight week 🚢. USDA reported 1.9mmt (73m bu) of corn inspected for export during the week ending February 26—down 8% from the prior week but up 37% year over year. Soybean shipments totaled 1.1mmt (42m bu), up 67% vs. the previous week and 62% above last year. China accounted for about 65% of inspections. Wheat shipments totaled 344,272mt (13m bu), down 39% week over week and 12% below last year. Roughly 12 cargoes of US soybeans were shipped to China last week—2 from the PNW and 10 from the Gulf—totaling about 30m bushels.
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🌍 Geopolitics & Middle East Developments
Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed over the weekend following a US-Israeli strike on Saturday that also eliminated several senior Iranian officials. Authorities reported that the attacks killed and wounded hundreds of civilians. The strike came after US-Iran negotiations aimed at addressing Iran’s nuclear program ultimately failed. In retaliation, Iran launched attacks against US and Israeli bases across the Middle East and vowed to continue further strikes.
🛢️ Oil Markets & Strait of Hormuz Closure
Oil prices surged Sunday following the US and Israeli strikes. WTI crude oil futures opened more than $8 per barrel higher and were trading about $4.60 per barrel, or roughly 7%, higher early this morning. The rally is being driven primarily by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Following Saturday’s attacks, Iran announced the waterway would be closed to navigation, halting the flow of oil shipments. Roughly 20% of global oil supplies typically move through the strait.
🇨🇳 China, Energy Security & Trump–Xi Summit
The strike could complicate President Trump’s upcoming visit to China. Beijing publicly condemned the attack and warned it could further destabilize the Middle East. Despite its strong rhetoric, China is not expected to intervene militarily. The Trump–Xi summit scheduled for later this month is still expected to proceed, though major breakthroughs appear unlikely. China imports about 14% of its crude oil needs from Iran and accounts for roughly 80–90% of Iran’s oil exports, as sanctions limit purchases from other countries.
🌾 Grain Markets React to Geopolitical Risk
Wheat futures surged on Friday. The Chicago May 2026 contract rose 17 cents to close near $5.92 per bushel, its highest level since July 2025. The rally was fueled by heightened US-Iran tensions that triggered short covering by the funds. Corn and soybean futures also moved higher, with May corn gaining about 5 cents to settle near $4.49 per bushel and May soybeans rising roughly 7 cents to close near $11.71 per bushel. Traders were clearly anticipating a potential weekend escalation on Friday. Grains showed some early strength overnight but were mostly steady early this morning.
📊 Fund Positioning – CFTC Commitment of Traders
The CFTC released its weekly Commitment of Traders report on Friday. For the week ending February 24, large money managers were net buyers of 29,000 corn contracts and net buyers of 12,000 soybean contracts. Funds were also net buyers of 52,000 SRW wheat contracts during the week. The net short position in SRW wheat shrank to 18,000 contracts, the smallest since October 2022. Private estimates suggested funds held a net long of about 25,000 wheat contracts at Friday’s close, along with a net long of roughly 180,000 soybean contracts and a reduced SRW wheat net short of about 10,000 contracts.
🌽 Crop Insurance Prices & Acreage Outlook
This year’s crop insurance pricing provides improved coverage for soybeans, while corn faces greater downside risk. The spring projected soybean price is $11.09 per bushel, up 55 cents from last year. The corn projected price declined 8 cents to $4.62 per bushel. Spring wheat’s projected price stands at $6.19 per bushel, also 55 cents higher year over year.
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🇺🇸🇧🇷 US vs Brazil Soybean Profitability
This week, the University of Illinois farmdoc team broke down a critical difference between US and Brazilian soybean economics. Brazil’s costs are heavily tied to direct inputs like fertilizer, while US producers face far larger overhead expenses driven by elevated farmland values. Brazilian production costs surged from 2020–2024 due to fertilizer inflation and currency weakness, yet profitability held up thanks to strong prices and export demand. US margins were far less stable, contributing to losses in multiple years.
📈 Soybean Market Update
Soybean futures pushed higher Tuesday, with strength linked to easing fears surrounding US tariff policy and China demand. The market continues to weigh the potential impact of evolving trade policy, while rumors of Chinese PNW business circulated. Traders remain cautious but attentive to any confirmation of export activity.
🌽 Corn & Wheat Trade
Corn futures were slightly lower. Chicago wheat was mostly steady as traders monitored persistent dryness across key HRW regions. Weather remains the dominant driver, with warm and windy conditions stressing parts of the Southern Plains, though rain chances loom further out.
🌦️ Weather Watch
Forecast models keep much of Kansas and surrounding wheat areas dry near-term, while temperatures run well above normal. Moisture prospects in the extended window remain a focal point for price direction.
🧪 Fertilizer & Tariff Policy
Most fertilizer imports remain exempt under the latest tariff framework. Key products like ammonia, sulfur, and sulfuric acid face minimal disruption, largely due to Canadian dominance in US import flows.
₿ Bitcoin Sentiment
Investor confidence remains fragile. A large share of supply is now underwater, reinforcing a pattern where rallies encounter selling pressure. Despite price weakness, ETF positioning suggests longer-term holders have not fully exited.
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Trade drama is back in the headlines. President Trump is threatening higher tariffs on countries that fail to honor trade agreements. Following last week’s Supreme Court ruling, the EU announced it would pause ratification of its agreement, while India is deferring talks on its own deal. Despite the legal setback, the White House says it remains committed to its trade agenda and is exploring alternative tools to implement tariffs. Markets clearly reacted to the renewed uncertainty, with stocks under pressure to start the week.
Grain markets felt the ripple effects. Soybean and wheat futures moved lower Monday as traders weighed the potential impact of trade disruptions and retaliation tied to the newly announced 15% global tariff. Corn futures, meanwhile, managed to hold steady. When policy uncertainty rises, volatility often follows — and that theme remains firmly in play.
Export data offered a few surprises. US corn shipments exceeded expectations for the third straight week, posting a very strong year-over-year gain. Wheat inspections also came in above trade guesses. Soybean shipments, however, disappointed and continue to reflect uneven demand patterns. China remained a major buyer, accounting for roughly half of weekly inspections.
USDA also reported a fresh flash sale of corn to Colombia, adding to an already solid sales pace this marketing year. Demand for US corn has been a notable bright spot recently, especially when compared to other segments of the export complex.
Weather and field conditions remain a major talking point in South America. Brazil’s soybean harvest is advancing at its slowest pace in several years, with rains and longer crop cycles creating delays. Planting progress for Brazil’s second corn crop is also lagging last year’s pace, which could become increasingly important for global feed grain supply expectations.
Outside of grains, US consumers continue to show remarkable resilience in the face of high beef prices. Despite record price levels, demand remains strong as buyers adapt by shifting toward more affordable cuts and smaller portions. The protein story remains a powerful force across the broader agricultural landscape.
As always, volatility, policy, and global production trends remain key market drivers.
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Soybean markets started the week wrestling with fresh tariff drama. The Supreme Court struck down the administration’s prior global tariffs, ruling that the use of emergency powers was unlawful. Shortly afterward, the White House announced a new blanket tariff approach, creating another wave of uncertainty across financial and commodity markets. The key question for agriculture remains unchanged: how will this impact trade flows and demand, particularly from China? Earlier signals pointed toward stronger soybean buying interest, but policy volatility continues to cloud the outlook.
Meanwhile, USDA is preparing to roll out a major round of farm assistance through the Farmer Bridge Assistance program. The application window opens today, with payments expected to move quickly. Market participants will be watching closely to see how the agency handles what could be a surge in producer enrollment. The program arrives at a time when farm margins remain under pressure and policy uncertainty is elevated.
Export demand signals were mixed in the latest weekly data. Corn demand continues to hold up relatively well despite some week-to-week variability, while soybean and wheat sales showed uneven momentum. Traders remain highly sensitive to shifts in global demand and competitiveness.
The latest Commitment of Traders report showed funds adding to positions across the grain complex, with soybeans drawing particular attention. Positioning trends remain an important driver of short-term price movement, especially in an environment dominated by macro headlines.
In livestock, the latest Cattle on Feed report landed near expectations and was generally viewed as neutral. While placements data offered some supportive elements, the overall numbers did not point to a major shift in supply outlook.
Lots to unpack this week as markets digest policy developments, demand signals, and fund activity. Stay tuned.
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Welcome back 🌾
Wheat futures pushed sharply higher on Thursday, fueled largely by short covering as traders reacted to drought and high winds across the US Southern Plains. Weather risks remain front and center, with ongoing concerns about potential crop stress in key HRW regions. There was also chatter surrounding possible issues with Ukraine’s wheat crop. Chicago and Kansas City contracts both posted solid gains. The Climate Prediction Center added another layer of support with updated seasonal outlooks calling for a warm and dry pattern across much of wheat country. While long-range forecasts always deserve some skepticism, the market clearly paid attention.
🌱 USDA Acreage & Production Outlook
USDA projects an increase in soybean acreage this season, while corn acres are expected to decline. Soybeans are viewed as offering stronger relative profitability, helping drive the shift. Despite fewer corn acres, production is still forecast to be massive. Wheat acreage is seen slipping slightly.
⛽ Ethanol Production & Margins
US ethanol production moved higher last week, and stocks also increased. Margins reportedly strengthened across much of the Corn Belt, a supportive signal for corn demand. We’ll take a look at what’s driving profitability and why this matters.
🚢 Ethanol & DDGS Trade
Ethanol exports surged to one of the highest monthly totals on record, capping off a year of very strong international demand. DDGS shipments also remained robust. Trade flows continue to play a critical role in demand dynamics.
🚜 John Deere Shares Surge
John Deere shares posted a stunning rally following earnings. The company exceeded expectations and raised its income outlook. Management commentary hinted at stabilizing farm economics and potential improvement in equipment demand.
🛢️ Crude Oil & Geopolitics
Crude oil climbed to multi-month highs amid escalating US-Iran tensions and renewed concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Energy markets remain extremely sensitive to geopolitical developments.
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🌽 Ag Outlook Forum – Acreage & Yield Estimates
USDA will release its first look at 2026 acreage and yield projections this morning at the Agricultural Outlook Forum. Analysts expect corn acreage near 94.9 million acres with production around 15.9 billion bushels. Soybean acreage is forecast near 84.9 million acres with production pegged at 4.4 billion bushels. Wheat acreage is projected at 44.8 million acres with production near 1.9 billion bushels. These numbers often set the tone for new-crop expectations and market psychology.
🚜 NCGA Warns of Farm Financial Stress
The National Corn Growers Association released a report emphasizing mounting financial pressure across US agriculture. The group argues that many corn farmers are facing multiple years of negative margins amid rising costs and increased volatility. Long-term consolidation trends continue as productivity gains fail to consistently translate into profitability. Off-farm income remains critical for many operations. Demand growth and supportive policy remain central themes.
🌾 Wheat Strength – Weather Concerns
Kansas City wheat futures posted fresh multi-month highs overnight, with nearby contracts reaching their best levels since late summer. Comments from Ukraine’s farmers union regarding winter wheat risks following a thaw and cold snap helped support prices. Wheat continues to show relative strength compared to corn.
📊 Corn & Soybean Price Action
Soybeans briefly traded into fresh multi-month highs, while corn futures remain sluggish ahead of First Notice Day. Spreads, positioning, and technical flows are all in focus as traders manage delivery risk and roll activity.
⛽ E15 Policy Push Continues
Ag groups continue pressing for year-round nationwide E15 sales despite missed legislative deadlines. Advocates argue expanded blends would boost corn demand and potentially reduce fuel costs. Market participants continue to monitor Washington for movement.
🌧️ South American Weather Update
Recent rains improved soybean conditions in southern Brazil and brought relief to dry Argentine areas. Additional precipitation could disrupt harvest pace and second-crop corn planting. Brazilian production estimates remain historically large.
🚢 Argentina Strikes & Logistics
Labor strikes are temporarily disrupting Argentine grain shipments. While these events frequently generate headlines, they historically produce limited lasting impact on global price trends.
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🌱 Biofuel Mandates & Soybean Strength
The EPA is expected to submit its proposed biofuel blending quotas for 2026 to the White House for final review in the coming days. The Trump administration is working to finalize the delayed mandates by the end of March.
Earlier proposals pointed to a sizable increase in total biofuel volumes and a sharp jump in the biomass-based diesel target. While the agency is now considering a slightly revised range for biomass-based diesel, the numbers still imply substantially stronger demand compared to prior years.
Both old and new crop soybean futures pushed to multi-month highs overnight. Biofuel optimism — combined with ongoing Chinese demand optimism — continues to support prices despite the advancing Brazilian harvest.
🌽 Corn Market Pressure
Corn futures moved lower Tuesday, pressured by improving crop conditions in Argentina following recent rainfall. Weather developments in South America remain a key driver for global feed grain markets.
🌾 Wheat Faces Global Headwinds
Chicago wheat futures also weakened. Pressure stemmed from an increased Russian crop outlook and news that India will allow limited wheat exports. Seasonal demand softness tied to the Lunar New Year added additional weight to the market.
🚢 Port of Los Angeles & Soybean Flows
U.S. soybean shipments to China through the Port of Los Angeles remain extremely light. Flows through the port fell sharply last year and showed little recovery late in the year.
The Port of LA typically handles only a very small share of total U.S. soybean exports. The Gulf continues to dominate shipment volumes, followed by the Pacific Northwest. Brazilian soybeans remain competitively priced on the world market, influencing global trade flows.
📦 Export Inspections Update
U.S. corn shipments exceeded expectations for the second straight week, while soybean inspections remained strong and near the upper end of forecasts. China accounted for a significant portion of weekly soybean movement. Seasonal export patterns remain important to monitor.
🛢️ NOPA Crush & Soybean Oil Stocks
NOPA reported a record January soybean crush for the month. Processing margins and domestic demand continue to drive historically large crush volumes.
Soybean oil stocks increased sharply and now sit at their highest level in quite some time—an important factor for biofuel and vegetable oil markets moving forward.
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🌽 USDA Long-Term Projections (Out to 2035)
USDA released its annual baseline projections, and the acreage outlook immediately caught traders’ attention. The agency pegged 2026 corn acres at 95 million, sharply lower year-over-year, while soybean acres were projected at 85 million, implying a notable shift toward beans. Also raising eyebrows: USDA does not project an average farm price for corn above the mid-$4 range at any point through 2035. These projections assume “normal” conditions and are intended for planning and budgeting, but they often influence long-term sentiment.
🚜 The Future of US Farms & Ranches
A major Wall Street Journal feature highlighted a growing structural issue in American agriculture: succession. A large share of farms reportedly have no clear next-generation operator, while the producer population continues to age. Consolidation trends remain strong, with more operations being sold or leased to larger entities. Over time, this could accelerate the shift toward landlord-tenant and contract production models, reshaping rural communities and land markets.
📊 Fund Positioning – CFTC Commitment of Traders
Money managers were active buyers again. Funds added to net long positions in both corn and soybeans, with soybean length expanding to its largest level in weeks. Wheat, meanwhile, saw modest selling pressure. Changes in speculative positioning can heavily influence short-term price behavior and volatility.
🇧🇷 Brazil Crop & Planting Progress
Brazil’s soybean harvest remains slower than last year amid persistent rainfall delays. Safrinha corn planting is also trailing the prior pace. Weather-related slowdowns at this time of year often feed into global supply expectations and can influence export competition dynamics.
🇺🇸🇨🇳 US-China Trade & Soybean Demand Signals
Diplomatic engagement between US and Chinese officials continues ahead of the anticipated Trump-Xi meetings later this spring. Reports of a potential extension of the trade truce have supported optimism regarding Chinese demand for US soybeans. Markets remain sensitive to any indications of purchase targets, policy shifts, or rhetoric changes.
🔥 Energy Markets – Natural Gas Pullback
Natural gas prices have eased following a warmer weather outlook after January’s weather-driven rally. Storage deficits persist, however, providing underlying support. Energy markets can indirectly influence fertilizer, input costs, and broader commodity sentiment.
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🌱 Soybean Market Rally
Soybeans moved sharply higher following a South China Morning Post report hinting that the US–China trade truce could be extended when Trump and Xi meet in April. President Trump recently suggested China may boost US soybean purchases to 20mmt, but skepticism remains as Brazilian beans continue to dominate global offers at a discount.
🌽 Export Sales Breakdown
Corn export sales were a clear bright spot, easily beating expectations with Japan leading the charge. Soybean sales, however, slipped to a marketing-year low despite China showing up as the largest buyer. Wheat sales posted modest improvement. What does this mixed demand picture mean going forward?
🌎 South America Weather & Production
Argentina’s crops are still in a weather-critical window, with dryness raising concern about yield potential. Meanwhile, Brazil continues to stack record production, with Conab raising its soybean estimate again. Harvest is advancing — and global supply pressure is building.
🥩 Beef Industry Developments
Cargill is closing its Milwaukee processing facility, adding to the growing list of plant slowdowns and shutdowns. With the US cattle herd near historic lows, the livestock sector faces tightening dynamics that could reshape margins and price behavior.
☀️ Drought Monitor Update
Large portions of the Corn Belt saw limited precipitation, while drought conditions worsened in parts of Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska, and Kansas. We review what this means as the growing season approaches.
🚢 Flash Sale to Egypt
USDA reported new soybean business to Egypt. How significant is this sale in the broader demand landscape?
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🌏 Global Market Developments
Chinese media hinted that the U.S.–China trade truce may be extended, while officials confirmed discussions around a potential presidential visit. Optimism surrounding trade stability helped support soybean prices overnight, with futures probing fresh multi-month highs.
🚢 Demand & Trade Flows
China’s appetite for U.S. sorghum continues to generate buzz. Reports suggest strong buying interest tied to tight domestic feed supplies and lingering quality issues in China’s corn crop. Notably, China has still shown little interest in U.S. corn, keeping alternative grains in focus.
⛽ Biofuels & Energy Markets
Marine fuel demand is gaining attention as a potential growth engine for biofuels. With global shipping facing mounting emissions pressure, renewable diesel and ethanol are increasingly part of the debate. Industry participants continue to question how easily existing engines could adapt.
🏛 Policy & Regulatory Watch
Corn grower groups are pressing the Department of Justice for clarity on its fertilizer industry investigation. Producers argue that input costs and market concentration remain critical issues ahead of the next planting season.
📦 Supply, Production & Margins
Ethanol production rebounded last week while margins improved across key regions. Stocks also moved higher, reflecting shifting operating conditions and steady blending demand.
🌽 Export Activity
USDA announced another flash sale of corn to unknown destinations, reinforcing the strong pace of export commitments and ongoing demand beneath the market.
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🌎 Soybeans
Soybean futures advanced on Tuesday, with the most heavily traded Mar26 contract gaining nearly 12 cents to settle near $11.23 per bushel. Strength was tied largely to continued optimism surrounding Chinese demand after last week’s signals that China may boost this season’s US soybean purchase target. The rally came despite USDA leaving its US soybean export, crush, and ending stocks projections unchanged. Meanwhile, USDA raised its Brazilian soybean production outlook to 180 mmt.
🌽 Corn
USDA reduced its outlook for US corn ending stocks, primarily reflecting stronger export expectations. The adjustment provided modest underlying support to the corn market.
🌾 Wheat
Wheat balance sheets saw minimal changes, with ending stocks estimates largely steady.
🏛️ US–China Developments
US Treasury staff visited China last week to reinforce communication between Washington and Beijing. Discussions centered on preparations for a future meeting between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. While no official date or location has been announced, the meeting is expected in the coming weeks. President Trump also recently described a productive phone call with President Xi Jinping, during which China again referenced the possibility of larger US soybean purchases.
🏗️ US Grain Storage Capacity
The University of Illinois highlighted a growing structural concern within US grain markets. After nearly two decades of steady growth, US grain storage capacity has largely stopped expanding. At the same time, crop production continues to trend higher, tightening the margin between production and available storage. Elevated construction costs, higher interest rates, and long-term production uncertainty appear to be limiting investment. If this dynamic persists, the industry may face greater basis volatility and logistical bottlenecks.
🇧🇷 Brazil Inflation & Interest Rates
Brazilian inflation moved modestly higher in January, with consumer prices rising annually and remaining above the central bank’s target. Despite inflation pressures, policymakers continue to signal that rate cuts may begin in March. Markets remain divided on the pace of easing. Brazil’s benchmark interest rate remains historically high, helping shape currency flows and global competitiveness.
🐄 Brazil Beef & Feedlot Expansion
Brazil’s cattle feeding sector continued its rapid expansion. Feedlot placements rose sharply last year, reflecting an ongoing shift toward more grain-intensive production systems. Brazil has strengthened its position in global beef markets, remaining the world’s largest exporter with China as its dominant customer. Shipments to the US also increased significantly amid tight domestic cattle supplies.
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🌱 Grain Markets
China returned to the U.S. market on Monday with a flash sale of 264,000 mt (10 million bushels) of corn for delivery during the 2025/26 marketing year.
Despite the headline, soybean futures ended lower, with the Mar ’26 contract down nearly 5 cents to settle near $11.11.
Official U.S. soybean sales to China now stand at 10.15 mmt (accumulated export sales plus Monday’s flash sale). Roughly half of the 3.1 mmt sold to unknown destinations will likely be tagged to China, pushing total sales to ~11.7 mmt, very close to the White House’s 12 mmt target.
President Trump’s recent comments suggest China could ultimately push current marketing-year purchases toward 20 mmt.
🚢 Export Inspections
Corn: 1.3 mmt (51 mil bu)
⬆️ 14% vs prior week | ⬇️ 4.2% vs last year
Soybeans: 1.1 mmt (42 mil bu)
⬇️ 14% vs prior week | ⬆️ 3.5% vs last year
China accounted for ~66% of total inspections. Soybean shipments to China included 3 PNW cargoes and 9 Gulf cargoes.
Wheat: 580,130 mt (21 mil bu)
⬆️ 76% vs prior week | ⬆️ 1.7% vs last year
📊 USDA Preview
The USDA will release its Crop Production and WASDE report today at 11:00am CST.
Expectations:
U.S. corn ending stocks: unchanged
U.S. soybean ending stocks: slightly lower
U.S. wheat ending stocks: modestly lower
World stocks: mostly unchanged
Brazil corn & soybean production: likely revised higher
🛢️ Soybean Oil & Crush
Soybean oil rallied to its highest level in over six months following news that the U.S. and India reached a trade agreement that would reduce or eliminate duties on several U.S. ag products, including soybean oil.
India is the world’s largest edible oil importer, buying roughly 16 mmt annually. Prices could strengthen further once the agreement is finalized, though a record Brazilian soybean crop and rapidly advancing harvest may limit upside.
🚜 Farm Economy
Farm bankruptcies rose sharply in 2025, climbing 46% year over year to 315 filings, marking the second straight year of increases.
The Midwest and Southeast led the way, with Iowa, Missouri, and Nebraska posting the highest totals. Between 2017 and 2024, roughly 160,000 U.S. farm operations exited the industry. With losses expected to persist across most crop sectors, bankruptcies and farm exits are likely to increase again in 2026.
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🥩 Cattle & Beef
President Trump signed an executive order allowing up to 100,000 metric tons of Argentine beef to enter the U.S. this year under a lower tariff rate. The goal is to reduce retail beef prices.
• Imports will consist only of lean beef trimmings, used primarily in ground beef
• A similar move last fall triggered sharp selloffs in cattle futures
• Beef prices did not fall meaningfully last time
• Markets will be watching closely to see if funds react again
🌱 Soybeans
Soybeans rallied for a third straight session on Friday.
• The Mar26 contract settled near $11.15, the highest since early December
• The rally followed Trump’s comments suggesting China may boost U.S. purchases to 20mmt
• Traders remain skeptical China will follow through
• Brazil’s record crop continues to hang over the market
🌽 Corn & 🌾 Wheat
Corn and wheat futures ended the session lower.
• No fresh bullish catalysts
• Focus remains on demand, fund positioning, and policy developments
🇺🇸🇨🇳 Geopolitics
Trump’s planned April visit to China may be at risk.
• The U.S. is preparing a potential $20B arms sale to Taiwan
• This follows an $11B package approved in December
• China has criticized the move, warning it could strain relations
• Trade talks could become more complicated if tensions escalate
🇮🇳 India Trade
India is considering limited ag-market access for U.S. products.
• Possible tariff reductions on soybean oil and DDGS
• India continues to block imports of GM food crops like soybeans and dairy
• Indian farmers are pushing back, citing risks to small producers
🇧🇷 Brazil Weather & Crop
Brazil’s soybean harvest is moving fast.
• ~17% harvested vs ~10% this time last year
• Yields remain strong across most regions
• StoneX projects a record 181.6mmt crop
• Argentina remains dry but rain is forecast over the next 10 days
📊 CFTC & Funds
The latest CFTC report showed modest fund buying, but it’s already outdated.
• Funds were net buyers of corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat during the reporting window
• Post-report price action suggests positioning has shifted significantly
• Private estimates now show large specs heavily long soybeans
⛽ Ethanol & E15
The push for year-round E15 sales continues.
• E15 accounts for ~30% of Iowa fuel sales
• Usage is growing roughly 45% annually
• Draft legislation expected by mid-February
• Political divisions could slow progress
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🌱 Soybeans Lead the Rally
Soybean futures pushed higher again Thursday, building on momentum from President Trump’s comments suggesting China could increase U.S. soybean purchases this season. While some traders are buying into the optimism, others remain skeptical that verbal commitments will turn into real demand—especially during Brazil’s peak export window. Corn and wheat futures also finished the session higher.
💰 USDA: Farm Profits Jump on Government Payments
USDA’s Economic Research Service says farm income rebounded last year, largely due to a sharp increase in direct government payments. Looking ahead, USDA expects farm income to level off somewhat, with payments remaining elevated relative to recent years.
⚖️ Fertilizer Prices Under DOJ Scrutiny
The Iowa Corn Growers Association is pressing the Department of Justice for updates on its investigation into fertilizer pricing. The group says high input costs are adding to financial stress across farm country and wants clarity on whether consolidation in the fertilizer industry is limiting competition.
🚢 Export Sales Remain Soft
Weekly export sales were underwhelming across the board. Corn sales declined again, soybean sales hit a marketing-year low, and wheat sales came in near the bottom of expectations. While China was the top soybean buyer for the week, overall demand remains sluggish.
🌧️ Drought Still a Concern
Cold temperatures limited drought improvement despite some recent precipitation. Frozen soils and low Mississippi River levels continue to restrict barge traffic, while drought conditions across the High Plains remain largely unchanged.
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🌱 China & US Soybeans
China is considering boosting US soybean purchases. In a Truth Social post Wednesday, Donald Trump said China may raise its current-season buying target from 12 mmt to 20 mmt, sparking a sharp rally in soybean futures.
That said, it’s far from certain those additional purchases actually happen. After recently fulfilling its initial commitment, China has shifted back to cheaper South American supplies. Brazil is on track for a record soybean crop, keeping Brazilian prices attractive during the heart of their export window.
China has so far purchased 9.65 mmt of US soybeans for this marketing year, with a large share still unshipped. Trump’s comments imply potential additional buying before the August 31 marketing-year end — but the big question remains:
➡️ Will China really buy and ship US soybeans during peak Brazilian export season?
➡️ Are we headed toward a rare contra-seasonal export program tied to trade tensions?
Price action suggests optimism — even as many traders and analysts remain deeply pessimistic.
🚜 Farm Crisis Concerns Grow
Former US farm leaders and lawmakers are sounding the alarm on the worsening farm economy. In a letter to the Trump administration, former US Department of Agriculture officials and industry leaders warned of a potential “widespread collapse of American agriculture.”
They cited rising input costs and abundant global grain supplies that have pushed prices low enough for farmers to lose money three years in a row. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reported that average farm operating loan sizes jumped sharply last year.
While $12 billion in Farmer Bridge Assistance payments are set to go out soon, most agree the aid will only cover a fraction of producer losses.
🌽 Ethanol Production Slumps
US ethanol production fell hard last week, driven by plant slowdowns tied to high natural gas prices, limited availability, and severe winter weather. Output dropped well below the prior week and last year’s levels.
Ethanol stocks declined, while margins actually improved across much of the Corn Belt. According to Reuters data, margins range from modestly negative to modestly positive when factoring in corn, DDGs, and inputs.
🐄 Texas Braces for Screwworm Threat
Texas ranchers are preparing for a potential return of New World screwworm. Since late December, 20 cases have been confirmed in Tamaulipas, Mexico — just south of the Texas border. The threat prompted Greg Abbott to issue a disaster declaration to unlock state resources.
Screwworm could cost Texas cattle producers hundreds of millions and hit the broader state economy even harder. The USDA plans to release glow-in-the-dark sterile flies in northern Mexico and south Texas, but full eradication would take years. Meanwhile, the continued ban on Mexican feeder cattle imports is adding further support to cattle prices.
🌾 Corn Flash Sale
USDA also reported a flash sale of corn Wednesday. Exporters sold 130,480 mt to unknown destinations for 2025/26 delivery. Total accumulated corn sales are running well ahead of last year’s pace.
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🏛️ 45Z Clean Fuel Tax Credit — New Guidance
The US Treasury Department and IRS released long-awaited proposed guidance on the 45Z Clean Fuel Production tax credit this week. Biofuel and agricultural groups largely welcomed the rules, citing improved clarity after years of delays.
Key takeaways from the proposal:
Fuels produced after December 31, 2025, must use feedstocks grown exclusively in the US, Mexico, or Canada
The 45Z credit is extended through 2029
The special SAF credit rate is eliminated for fuel produced after January 1, 2026
The indirect land use change (ILUC) penalty is removed
A 60-day public comment period is now open, with a public hearing scheduled for May 28
🧾 45Z — Important Context & Clarifications
45Z was enacted under the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, but implementation has been repeatedly delayed
It is a clean fuel production credit, claimed by biofuel producers (ethanol, biodiesel, renewable diesel, etc.)
This is not 45Q, which applies to carbon capture and sequestration
In most cases, plants can claim either 45Z or 45Q—not both
Non-SAF fuels can receive up to $1.00 per gallon
Only a limited number of plants claimed 45Z in 2025
Plants are now preparing for 2026 production, though rules remain proposed
There is no direct payment to farmers—plants will decide how low-CI premiums are shared
Treasury plans to release a Feedstock Carbon Intensity Calculator (FD-CIC) to address farming practices
🚜 US Farmer Sentiment Slides
Farmer sentiment dropped sharply in January. Purdue University’s CME Group Ag Economy Barometer showed:
A steep decline in current conditions and future expectations
Nearly 60% of farmers expect bad financial times over the next year
Long-term pessimism rose meaningfully
Concerns about US agricultural exports increased
This highlights the difficult backdrop facing producers even as policy clarity improves.
🇧🇷 Brazil Ethanol Production Outlook
Brazilian ethanol production is expected to rise this year as-
Ethanol prices improve
Sugar prices weaken
New corn ethanol plants come online
A large sugarcane crop boosts output
StoneX projects strong growth, with corn ethanol production jumping sharply. This could push Brazil toward higher ethanol exports, and corn usage for ethanol may reach a record share of production.
🇨🇳 China’s “No. 1 Document” & Food Security
China unveiled its annual rural policy blueprint aimed at boosting food self-sufficiency. The plan emphasizes:
Higher grain and oilseed production
Diversified agricultural imports
Reduced reliance on traditional suppliers like the US and Canada
Expanded sourcing from South America and the Global South
New quotas on beef imports and tariffs on EU dairy
Increased investment in agricultural innovation
₿ Bitcoin Update
Bitcoin has fallen to its lowest level since November 2024, pressured by:
Liquidations of leveraged positions
Weak sentiment in crypto derivatives
Broader financial market volatility
Despite some institutional interest, everyday investor participation has slowed, leaving Bitcoin under continued pressure.
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🇺🇸🇮🇳 US–India Trade Deal
The Trump administration announced a trade agreement with India that reduces tariffs on Indian imports into the US from 25% to 18%. In exchange, India agreed to remove tariffs and trade restrictions on US goods and halt purchases of Russian oil.
India also committed to purchasing more than $500 billion of American goods, including agricultural products. However, key details remain unclear, including when the deal takes effect and which specific products India will buy.
🌽 Grain Markets
Grain futures extended losses on Monday. The March 2026 corn contract fell roughly 3 cents to near $4.26 per bushel, while March 2026 soybeans slipped about 4 cents to around $10.60 per bushel.
Wheat futures also ended lower, pressured by concerns about frigid temperatures across the US Plains and the Black Sea region.
🚢 Export Inspections
US corn inspections declined last week but remain strong overall. The USDA reported inspections of 1.1 million metric tons for the week ending January 29, down 27% from the prior week and nearly 10% below the same week last year.
Soybean inspections came in near the high end of expectations at 1.3 million metric tons. That figure was slightly lower week-over-week but well above last year’s pace, with China accounting for roughly 56% of total shipments.
Wheat inspections totaled 326,828 metric tons, near the top of expectations. Shipments were lower versus the previous week but significantly higher than the same week last year.
🥩 Tyson Foods
Tyson Foods reported another difficult quarter for its beef segment, posting an adjusted operating loss of $143 million. Tight cattle supplies continue to push costs higher, and Tyson expects those conditions to persist through this year and into 2027.
In contrast, Tyson’s chicken segment posted year-over-year sales growth, marking a fifth straight quarter of volume gains. The company expects chicken to be the preferred protein this year due to affordability.
🇧🇷 Brazil Soybeans
Brazil’s soybean harvest continues to advance steadily. AgRural estimates that 10% of the crop had been harvested as of last Thursday, slightly ahead of last year’s pace.
StoneX raised its Brazilian soybean production estimate to a record 181.6 million metric tons, while Celeres lifted its forecast to 181.3 million.
🚜 Farm Aid Talks
Lawmakers continue to push for additional farmer assistance. Michigan Representative Kristen McDonald Rivet said more aid is needed to help farmers cope with high input costs and tariff-related disruptions.
She emphasized that federal aid is a temporary fix and that farmers ultimately need more reliable markets and predictable trade policy. McDonald is a co-sponsor of the proposed Farm and Family Relief Act of 2026, which calls for nearly $30 billion in aid. She believes Congress will approve the recently discussed $15 billion package by the end of the month.
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🌽🌱 Grain Futures Recap
Grain futures finished lower on Friday, pressured by profit-taking and a rebound in the US dollar.
March corn slipped by nearly 3 cents to $4.28
March soybeans dropped 8 cents to $10.64
Wheat futures also declined, with Chicago March wheat down about 4 cents to $5.38
Markets also continue to price in strong Brazilian crop expectations, while traders assessed the impact of severe cold across the US Plains earlier this week and frigid temperatures in Ukraine.
👉 See grain charts below
🥇🥈 Gold & Silver: Historic Volatility
Precious metals suffered historic one-day losses on Friday.
Gold futures fell sharply
Silver posted its worst daily decline since 1980
The selloff followed President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, which eased concerns about central bank independence and sent the US dollar sharply higher.
Longer term, metals may still find support from geopolitical risks and trade uncertainty, but Friday was a major reset.
👉 See gold, silver, and Dollar Index charts below
🏛️ Federal Reserve Update
President Trump officially selected Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair when Powell’s term ends in May.
Warsh has historically been a policy hawk
Recently shifted toward supporting lower rates
Viewed by markets as more inflation-focused than other rumored picks
One analyst summed it up:
“Because Warsh has been a policy hawk his entire life, his newfound dovishness looks very suspect.”
👉 See Dollar Index and Bloomberg Commodity Index charts below
📊 CFTC Commitment of Traders
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission released its weekly COT report.
For the week ending January 27, funds were net buyers across major ag markets:
Corn
Soybeans
SRW wheat
👉 See Fund Tracker charts below
🚜 Farmer Assistance Update
Additional farmer aid remains under discussion in Washington.
According to John Boozman, the proposed $15B package was excluded from the current spending bill
Aid could still move forward as a standalone bill or disaster relief add-on
The $11B Farmer Bridge Assistance program is still scheduled to be distributed by February 28
🐄 Cattle Inventory: Historically Tight
The USDA cattle inventory report confirmed the smallest US herd since 1951.
Total herd: 86.2 million head
Beef cow numbers declined again
Slight uptick in replacement heifers, but not enough to signal real expansion
Bottom line: structurally bullish for the cattle market with no clear signs of herd rebuilding.
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🥈 Precious Metals Volatility
Silver futures were slammed this morning, with the nearby March contract down sharply in early trade. Gold also moved lower. Some traders are pointing to speculation around an imminent Trump pick for the next Fed Chair as a possible catalyst. Regardless of the reason, the size and speed of the move has grabbed everyone’s attention.
🎰 Prediction Markets & CME’s Next Move
The CFTC says it plans to update prediction-market rules, aiming to provide more regulatory clarity while supporting “lawful innovation.” Chairman Michael Selig confirmed the agency will withdraw a prior proposal that would have banned sports- and political-related contracts.
Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi continue to grow rapidly, and CME is now partnering with FanDuel in the prediction-market space. With CME already planning 24/7 crypto derivatives trading, some believe this is a stepping stone toward round-the-clock trading in traditional commodity markets—an effort to avoid losing market share to online betting platforms. 🎲
❄️ Ukraine Cold Threat & Wheat Support
Extremely cold temperatures are forecast across much of Ukraine early next week, with readings potentially plunging well below zero. A large share of the country’s winter wheat crop currently lacks protective snow cover, raising winterkill concerns. These risks helped support wheat futures as traders also assessed lingering impacts from last week’s U.S. winter storm.
🌱 Soybeans Ease on Brazil Supply
Soybean futures softened as Brazil’s harvest ramps up and expectations build for a record-large crop. After completing initial U.S. purchases, China is expected to shift more demand toward Brazilian supplies. A weak U.S. dollar, however, continues to provide underlying support by improving export competitiveness.
🚢 Weekly Export Sales
U.S. corn export sales slowed from last week’s near-record pace, while soybean sales also declined. Wheat sales came in near the upper end of expectations. Japan was the top buyer for corn and wheat, while China led soybean purchases.
🛢️ Oil Rallies on Middle East Risk
Crude oil prices surged amid rising U.S.–Iran tensions. Markets are reacting to fears of supply disruptions, particularly the risk of instability in the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil chokepoint.
🌧️ US Drought Update
USDA’s latest drought monitor showed limited improvement across much of the Corn Belt due to frozen ground conditions, though some areas did see relief. Drought conditions worsened in parts of the High Plains.
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Welcome back!
Grain futures finished higher Wednesday as a weaker US dollar, biofuel headlines, and weather concerns provided support across ag and macro markets. Here’s what moved markets today 👇
🌽 Grain Markets
Corn and soybeans ended the session modestly higher, supported by a sharply weaker US dollar, which improves US export competitiveness.
President Trump said Congress is close to approving year-round E15, and that new biofuel guidelines are nearing completion—adding support to corn demand expectations.
Wheat also closed higher as traders continue to assess potential crop impacts from the recent winter storm.
In my view, developing dryness and a hot/dry forecast in Argentina likely played a role in row crop strength as well. See the map from our friends at CropProphet below.
🌾 Ethanol Update
US ethanol production declined modestly last week, though output remains higher than the same week last year.
Ethanol stocks also fell week over week and year over year.
According to Reuters data, ethanol margins weakened across the Corn Belt and are currently negative to breakeven, reflecting softer profitability.
Margins improved slightly following Monday’s corn selloff.
🐄 Livestock & Animal Health
The NCBA warned that it is likely only a matter of time before New World screwworm reaches the US.
NCBA President Buck Wehrbein said the pest is more likely to enter via wildlife than cattle imports and emphasized that the US successfully eradicated screwworm in the 1960s.
Recent rumors of screwworm already reaching the US triggered sharp selling in live and feeder cattle futures last week.
🥇 Precious Metals & Margins
CME Group raised margin requirements on precious metal futures following the historic rally in gold and silver.
Higher margins mean traders will need more capital to hold positions, potentially limiting participation by smaller traders.
Silver and gold both hit record highs before settling lower on the day.
For perspective: silver at ~$117/oz is roughly equivalent to trading $117 corn or soybeans, with a contract value near $585,000.
🏦 Federal Reserve
The Fed held interest rates steady, with two governors dissenting in favor of a cut.
Inflation remains above target, while labor markets show signs of stabilization.
Jerome Powell’s term ends in May, after which President Trump will appoint a new Fed chair.
Futures markets are pricing in limited rate cuts this year and none in 2027.
👉 Like, subscribe, and drop a comment with what you’re watching in grains, livestock, or macro.
Staying informed matters—especially in markets like these.
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Welcome back to the channel!
In today’s update, we cover Trump’s comments on year-round E15, growing weakness in the U.S. dollar, 2026 acreage debates, heat stress in Argentina, fresh USDA flash sales, and China’s latest soybean buying behavior.
⛽🇺🇸 E15, Trump & The Fed
President Trump visited Iowa and said Congress is very close to approving year-round E15 sales
Comments come after the White House failed to include E15 language in the current funding bill.
Trump declared the U.S. is entering a “golden age.”
He said a new Fed Chair announcement is coming soon and predicted significantly lower interest rates.
💵📉 U.S. Dollar Breakdown
The dollar hit its weakest level in nearly four years.
Pressure is coming from policy uncertainty, fiscal risks, and political polarization.
Euro, yen, and Swiss franc are at multi-year highs.
Emerging-market currencies are trading at record levels.
Investors are paying record premiums to hedge against further dollar weakness.
🌽🌱 2026 Acreage Debate
S&P Global estimates corn acreage at 95 million and soybeans at 84.5 million.
Higher corn input costs and crop rotation favor soybean.
China’s renewed soybean purchases add support to bean acres.
NCGA projects an $180/acre loss for corn.
Pro Farmer notes fertilizer already applied and historical trends could keep corn acres elevated.
Crop insurance guarantees in February will be key.
🔥🇦🇷 Argentina Weather Stress
Temps nearing 104°F across major growing regions.
Limited rain until February raises yield risks.
USDA estimates: 53 mmt corn, 48.5 mmt soybeans.
Planting nearly complete, but pasture conditions are deteriorating.
Meal markets remain quiet; bean oil strong amid biofuel sentiment.
🚢📊 USDA Flash Sales
110,000 mt of corn sold to unknown destinations (2025/26)
306,000 mt of sorghum sold to unknown destinations (2025/26)
First U.S. sorghum flash sale since August 2024.
🇨🇳🌎 China Soybean Buying
China booked at least 25 cargoes of Brazilian soybeans for Mar–Apr shipment.
Brazil holds a strong price advantage over U.S. beans.
China has now fulfilled its ~12 mmt U.S. purchase commitment.
Recent U.S. buying appears obligation-driven, not structural.
With large South American crops expected, China likely avoids U.S. beans until new crop this fall.
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🧪 Fertilizer Market & USDA Action
The USDA is taking a closer look at potential collusion in the fertilizer industry. Last week, Deputy Agriculture Secretary Stephen Vaden accused fertilizer giants Nutrien and Mosaic of working to limit supply and keep prices elevated. The two companies accounted for more than 90% of North American phosphate fertilizer and potash production last year.
A proposed new potash mine in Saskatchewan could weaken their market control and add supply to the U.S. market as early as next year. USDA officials say they are closely monitoring fertilizer markets and could take action to boost competition if needed.
Vaden also took aim at farm equipment manufacturers, backing the administration’s push for right-to-repair protections for farmers.
🌽 Biofuels Policy & 45Z Tax Credit
Clean Fuels Alliance America is urging the Trump administration to release the proposed 45Z tax credit rules. The request comes after the White House completed its review of the rule.
According to the biofuels group, clearer guidance is needed to reduce uncertainty and support biodiesel, renewable diesel, and sustainable aviation fuel production. They warned that continued delays could jeopardize investments, production, and rural jobs, while final rules could boost commodity demand and rural economic activity.
President Trump is scheduled to speak today in Clive, Iowa, where energy and economic issues are expected to be front and center. While there’s some chatter about a possible biofuel announcement, nothing is confirmed.
🌾 Wheat, Corn & Soybean Markets
Wheat futures moved lower on Monday. The CBOT March contract fell to around $5.23 after earlier touching the highest level since mid-December.
Cold weather in the High Plains raised concerns over crop damage, but snowfall helped insulate much of the wheat belt. Some damage was reported in parts of Nebraska, northeastern Colorado, and northwestern Kansas.
🚢 Export Inspections
U.S. corn shipments were strong last week. USDA reported 1.5 million metric tons of corn inspected for export, higher than both the previous week and last year.
Soybean inspections totaled 1.3 million metric tons, slightly lower week-to-week but sharply higher year-over-year, with China accounting for the majority of shipments.
Wheat inspections were weaker, trailing both last week and last year.
🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Update
AgRural raised its forecast for Brazil’s soybean crop again, now calling for a record harvest. Corn production estimates were also nudged higher.
Soybean harvest and second-crop corn planting are both running ahead of last year’s pace, while first-crop corn harvest is slightly behind. Rainfall has been mostly average, though southern areas remain somewhat dry.
Based on current estimates, Brazil’s soybean crop would be substantially larger than the U.S. crop.
🔥 Natural Gas & Winter Storm Impact
Natural gas prices surged to their highest level in years as Winter Storm Fern swept across the U.S., driving up heating demand.
The storm knocked out power to hundreds of thousands of customers and disrupted roughly 10% of U.S. natural gas production. In response, the Department of Energy issued emergency orders aimed at stabilizing power grids and reducing blackout risks in New England and Texas.
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🏛️ Government Shutdown Risk
The risk of a partial government shutdown is rising as the Senate prepares to vote later this week on a House-passed $1.2 trillion funding package. Following another fatal shooting involving federal immigration agents in Minnesota, Democratic lawmakers are threatening to oppose the bill due to DHS and ICE funding concerns. Democrats argue the package lacks reforms to rein in ICE.
While funding for many other agencies is included, there may still be enough Democratic support to avoid a shutdown. The last shutdown lasted 43 days and delayed key USDA and CFTC reports. Polymarket odds of a shutdown jumped sharply over the weekend. There is growing concern that previously approved FBA payments, currently slated for late February, could be delayed if a shutdown occurs.
❄️ Winter Storm & Cold Impacts
This weekend’s winter storm delivered widespread snow and extreme cold across the Plains. Parts of HRW wheat country in the Southern Plains received beneficial snowfall, reducing winterkill risk. However, below-zero temperatures combined with snow created severe cold stress for livestock, limiting weight gains and increasing risks for producers in calving season.
Wind chills in the Northern Plains plunged to extreme levels, while portions of Texas and Oklahoma face record lows with freezing temperatures expected to persist. Single-digit temperatures may linger another day or two in HRW wheat areas, while SRW wheat country in the Midwest remains locked in frigid conditions this week.
🌽 Grain Markets
Corn futures advanced on Friday, led by strong export demand. The most active March contract settled higher, supported by near-record export sales and competitive U.S. prices on the global market. Growing concern over dry conditions in parts of South America has added uncertainty around crop potential. Soybean and wheat futures also posted gains.
⛽ E15 Left Out (Again)
Farm groups and ethanol advocates are pushing back after Congress once again omitted year-round E15 sales from the funding package. Instead, lawmakers plan to form an E15 Rural Domestic Energy Council to study the issue.
🚢 Export Sales
U.S. export sales were impressive last week:
Corn sales set a marketing-year high, far exceeding expectations, with unknown destinations as the top buyer.
Soybean sales also hit a marketing-year high, with China leading purchases.
Wheat sales surpassed expectations, with unknown destinations again the largest buyer.
Overall, export demand remains a major source of support for the grain markets.
📊 CFTC Fund Positioning
In the latest Commitment of Traders report, large money managers were net sellers across corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat. The net short position in corn is now the largest since late October, reflecting continued bearish positioning despite recent market strength.
🐄 Cattle on Feed
Friday’s Cattle on Feed report came in largely neutral. Cattle on feed were below last year but slightly above expectations. Placements and marketings were both near or above pre-report estimates.
Notably, heifers made up a large share of cattle on feed, signaling that many are still being fed rather than retained for herd rebuilding—an important long-term signal for the cattle market.
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Farm Aid & Policy Update
Additional farm aid was not included in the current government funding package, catching many lawmakers and farm groups off guard. Senate Republicans had pushed just last week to add up to $15B in aid, but that language was left out.
With aid excluded for now, supporters say relief may need to come via supplemental appropriations or future legislation.
Congress must pass the funding package by January 30 to avoid another government shutdown.
It was also reported yesterday that nationwide E15 language was again dropped, though GOP leaders are discussing a possible supplemental bill that could allow year-round E15 sales.
Major Winter Storm Risk
A major winter storm is forecast to impact the Southern US this weekend. While the exact track remains uncertain, over 70 million people from Dallas to Little Rock to Nashville are currently under a winter storm watch.
Snow, ice, dangerous travel conditions, and power outages are possible.
Snow cover remains limited across key HRW wheat areas in the Southern Plains. Temperatures in western Kansas and surrounding regions could fall into the single digits, raising the risk of winter kill depending on snow totals and duration. Livestock stress is also a concern.
US–China Trade Watch
US and Chinese officials may soon hold another round of trade talks ahead of the planned April meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.
According to the US Trade Representative, negotiations would focus on common goods and services, avoiding sensitive areas like tech and national security.
China has already fulfilled its commitment to purchase 12 mmt of US soybeans. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said both sides are now looking ahead to China’s pledge to buy 25 mmt annually through 2028, though Trump continues to push for larger volumes.
Europe, Greenland & Tariffs
President Trump announced he will refrain from imposing new tariffs on European countries, following meetings at the World Economic Forum.
He stated that a framework for a future deal involving Greenland has been reached, marking a major shift from prior tariff threats. While details remain limited, Denmark continues to oppose any US takeover.
Grain Market Recap
Soybean futures rebounded Wednesday, with the most-active Mar26 contract gaining roughly 12 cents, settling near $10.65.
Support came from a slow start to Brazil’s soybean harvest due to rainfall in northern regions, along with comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent pointing to ongoing Chinese demand for US soybeans.
Global Protein Trade
China has reopened its market to Canadian beef imports, ending a ban that had been in place since 2021. Initial shipments are expected to be small, but the move is a positive long-term opportunity for Canada’s cattle industry.
Meanwhile, US beef exports to China have declined sharply over the past year amid ongoing trade tensions.
India & Wheat Exports
India has approved the export of 500,000 tons of wheat flour and related products. Wheat exports had been restricted since May 2022, but a strong monsoon is expected to boost domestic supplies.
India is typically self-sufficient in wheat and is sometimes a net exporter. Its re-entry into the export market is considered a bearish factor for global wheat prices.
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🇨🇳 China & U.S. Soybeans
China has reportedly completed its ~12 mmt U.S. soybean purchase, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent
Shipments are expected to move by May
Focus now shifts to China’s 25 mmt annual soybean pledge over the next three years
Despite that pledge, South American soybeans remain more competitive, likely capping U.S. demand
Ongoing economic strain and a smaller hog herd could further weigh on Chinese soybean usage
📌 Important context:
USDA has only confirmed 8.1 mmt of soybean sales to China so far
Roughly half of recent “Unknown” sales likely end up in China, plus some unreported intra-house business
Even at 12 mmt, purchases are well below the ~22.5 mmt China bought last marketing year
That’s why USDA cut its U.S. soybean export forecast last week
📉 Grain Markets
Soybeans: Mar ’26 contract slipped ~5¢, settling near $10.53
Pressure came from:
Rising geopolitical tensions over Greenland
Expectations for a record Brazilian soybean crop
Corn: Mar ’26 futures eased ~1¢ to $4.24
🚜 Farm Economy Reality Check
Farmers face tight margins after years of weak prices and rising costs
New York farmer Ron Robbins used detailed field-level data to:
Fallow unprofitable acres
Improve marginal land
Shift some acres from soybeans to corn
His takeaway: the downturn may be the new normal—reassessment is no longer optional
🚢 Weekly Export Shipments (USDA)
Corn: Strong print, beating expectations
Soybeans: Near top end of estimates; China took 46% of the week’s volume
Wheat: Also near the high end of expectations
YTD snapshot:
Soybean shipments: well below last year
Corn shipments: well ahead of last year
China-bound soybean cargoes shipped via both PNW and Gulf
🌱 Flash Sale
USDA confirmed a soybean meal sale to the Philippines for next marketing year
🌍 Macro & Markets
Japan’s bond market saw sharp turmoil after fiscal concerns and a weak auction
Long-dated yields spiked, spilling into global credit markets
S&P 500 logged its largest one-day drop since October
A weaker dollar failed to spark meaningful buying in ag
₿ Bitcoin Watch
Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy) has gone all-in again:
Massive recent Bitcoin purchases
Now the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin globally
Strategy uses Bitcoin as its primary treasury reserve, funded largely through debt issuance
CEO Michael Saylor remains controversial due to the aggressive approach
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🚜 Farm Aid & Government Funding
Senate Republicans are pushing for an additional farm aid package, potentially totaling up to $15 billion (not yet confirmed).
The proposal includes:
Additional bridge payments
Support for specialty crop producers
Higher farm ownership and operating loan limits
Aid for farmers who suffered losses above the national average or were forced to sell at depressed prices
Lawmakers plan to attach the measure to upcoming government funding legislation
Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) payments remain scheduled for February 28
A possible government shutdown on January 30 could:
Delay FBA payments
Delay any new farm aid package
The House and Senate have passed several spending bills, but key issues remain unresolved
🌍 Global Trade & Geopolitics
President Trump announced new tariffs on NATO allies over Greenland
10% tariffs begin February 1
Increase to 25% on June 1
Tariffs remain until the US is able to purchase Greenland
The EU is weighing retaliatory trade measures
Trump also said he would consider using force if negotiations fail
Market reaction:
S&P 500 futures down 1.8%
European and UK equities sharply lower
US dollar weaker against major currencies
🇨🇦🇨🇳 Canada–China Trade Deal
China will reduce tariffs on Canadian canola oil from 85% to 15% by March 1
Tariffs also reduced on:
Lobsters
Crabs
Peas
Canada will impose a 6.1% tariff on Chinese EVs
China has reportedly purchased its first Canadian canola cargo since October
Canada continues diversifying trade away from the US
🌱 South American Crop Update
Brazil’s soybean harvest is ahead of schedule
2% harvested as of last Thursday
vs. 1.7% at the same time last year
Rainfall has been near normal overall, with slightly drier conditions in southern areas
World Weather notes a La Niña-style dry bias, but says it’s unlikely to threaten production
📊 Fund Positioning (CFTC)
Large speculators were heavy sellers last week:
Corn: Net sellers of 78k contracts
Net short now 91k (largest since late October)
Soybeans: Net sellers of 46k contracts
Net short 20k (largest since mid-October)
Wheat: Net buyers of 1k SRW contracts
🚢 Export Activity
USDA reported multiple corn flash sales:
298k mt to unknown destinations
120k mt to Japan
Both sales are for the 2025/26 marketing year
Accumulated corn sales are now 29% higher than last year
🐄 Cattle Market Shock
Live and feeder cattle futures plunged Friday on screwworm concerns
Texas officials report 14 active cases within 200 miles of the US border
The pest is expected to eventually reach the US
Market reaction:
Live cattle down as much as $4.45
Feeder cattle down as much as $8.10
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Farm Economy Under Pressure
Headlines this week focused squarely on the deteriorating US farm economy. The Wall Street Journal published an article detailing the challenges facing US soybean farmers, including high input costs, weak commodity prices, rising competition from Brazil, and sluggish export demand. The piece also referenced USDA’s $12 billion Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) program, noting that while helpful in the short term, it does not address deeper structural issues.
Reuters published similar coverage, emphasizing tighter bank lending standards, increasing financial stress, and a rise in farm bankruptcies. Together, the articles underscore mounting pressure on farmers and the broader ripple effects across rural America.
Soybean Oil & Biofuels
Soybean oil futures surged on Thursday, gaining as much as 3.8% on expectations that the Trump administration will finalize US biofuel-blending quotas by March. Last June, the EPA proposed a sizable increase in biomass-based diesel targets, which would significantly boost soybean oil demand. There is optimism that stronger biofuel demand could help offset weak soybean export performance.
NOPA Crush Update
The National Oilseed Processors Association released its December crush report, showing US soybean crush at its second-highest level on record. NOPA members processed 224.99 million bushels, up 4.1% from November and 8.9% from December 2024, slightly above trade expectations.
For full-year 2025, crush totaled nearly 2.4 billion bushels—an 8% increase from 2024. End-of-month soybean oil stocks rose to 1.64 billion pounds, the highest level since May 2024, up sharply from both last month and last year, though just below average trade estimates.
Brazil Soybean Crop
Brazil’s soybean crop is shaping up to be record large. Agroconsult raised its estimate to 182.2 mmt, citing strong field conditions and limited widespread issues. Meanwhile, Conab trimmed its estimate slightly to 176.1 mmt due to marginally lower yield expectations. Even so, the crop remains record large and would exceed last season’s production.
Export Sales
US corn export sales impressed last week, with net sales of 1.1 mmt. While down from the prior four-week average, the number was a strong rebound from the previous week. Mexico was the top buyer.
Soybean sales exceeded expectations at 2.1 mmt, up sharply week-over-week and well above the recent average. China was the largest buyer. Wheat sales came in near the low end of expectations at 156,300 mt, with unknown destinations leading purchases.
USDA Flash Sales
USDA reported multiple flash sales on Thursday:
Soybeans sold to China and unknown destinations for 2025/26 delivery
Additional soybean sales for 2026/27 delivery
Corn sales to Japan and unknown destinations for 2025/26 delivery
Drought Monitor Update
USDA’s latest drought data showed mixed but generally improving conditions across parts of the Corn Belt and High Plains. Above-normal precipitation helped reduce drought intensity in portions of Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, Nebraska, and Kansas, while conditions worsened slightly in southern Missouri.
US Areas Experiencing Drought
Corn: 28%
Soybeans: 34%
Winter Wheat: 41%
Spring Wheat: 10%
Cattle: 34%
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🌽 Argentina Corn Crop Update
Argentina’s corn crop is shaping up to be record large. The Rosario Grain Exchange raised its estimate to 62 mmt, well above the prior record of 51.5 mmt set in the 2023/24 season. The increase reflects more planted acres than expected. Despite recent hot and dry conditions, crop stress has been limited, and rainfall is forecast for key growing areas.
For comparison, the USDA is currently projecting Argentina’s corn crop at 53 mmt.
📈 Corn & Soybean Futures
Corn and soybean futures finished higher on Wednesday, bouncing from oversold levels.
March corn settled near $4.22
March soybeans closed around $10.43
The gains were largely technical after futures fell to their lowest levels since October earlier this week following Monday’s bearish USDA report.
🔥 US Ethanol Production
US ethanol production surged to a new all-time high last week. Output jumped to 1.2 million barrels per day, crushing the prior record set in December. Ethanol stocks also climbed to a record weekly high of 24.47 million barrels.
According to Reuters data, ethanol margins remain solid across the Corn Belt, running 10 to 40 cents positive based on spot corn, DDGs, and input prices. Margins improved following Monday’s sharp sell-off in corn futures.
🇨🇳 China Soybean Imports
China imported a record 111.8 mmt of soybeans in 2025, topping the prior record set in 2024. Imports rose 6.5% year over year as buyers front-loaded shipments from Brazil and Argentina amid trade war uncertainty.
China largely avoided US soybeans during the year due to President Trump’s tariffs, but purchases resumed after the October trade truce. Traders estimate China has already bought nearly 10 mmt of the 12 mmt it committed to under the agreement.
🚢 USDA Flash Sales
The USDA reported multiple flash sales on Wednesday:
136,000 mt of corn sold to South Korea
334,000 mt of soybeans sold to China
Both were for delivery during the 2025/26 marketing year.
🥈 Silver & Gold Hit Records
Silver prices exploded to a new record high, surging more than 5% and breaking above $90 per ounce for the first time. The rally was fueled by renewed attacks on the Federal Reserve, expectations for additional rate cuts, and rising geopolitical tensions. Silver is now up nearly 30% year-to-date and almost triple where it traded a year ago.
Gold also hit record highs, with prices up more than 70% over the past year.
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🌽 Ethanol & E15 Push
The Renewable Fuels Association is calling for year-round, nationwide sales of E15 following Monday’s bearish USDA report. The group says allowing E15 nationwide could eventually create demand for more than 2 billion bushels of corn and sorghum.
The RFA is urging Congress to pass the Ethanol for America Act, finalize Renewable Fuel Standard volume requirements, limit small refinery exemptions, and reallocate any waived volumes.
Despite the push, year-round E15 is unlikely to materially boost ethanol demand in the near term:
Infrastructure: Many stations would need upgraded tanks, pumps, gaskets, and EPA sign-offs
Consumer behavior: Most drivers don’t know what E15 is and are hesitant to buy it
Production capacity: US ethanol production is already near capacity
An E15 mandate would be the fastest way to meaningfully increase corn demand—but that would require new plants, new infrastructure, and billions of dollars.
🚜 Trade Policy Risk: USMCA
President Trump said this week that the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement is now “irrelevant” and no longer benefits the US. The agreement is up for review this year, with renewal requiring all three countries to agree by July 1.
Mexico has been the largest buyer of US corn in recent years. Any disruption to USMCA would be a major risk to corn exports. See chart below.
🥩 Beef Prices Hit New Records
Ground beef prices averaged $6.82/lb in December, up 16% year over year. Steak prices averaged $12.51/lb, up 18%.
Beef prices remain a major driver of higher food costs and are expected to keep rising into 2026 due to historically low US cattle inventories and new dietary guidelines encouraging higher animal-protein consumption. See beef charts below.
🌱 Soybean Flash Sales
USDA reported multiple soybean flash sales on Tuesday:
168,000 mt to China
152,404 mt to Mexico
Both are for delivery during the 2025/26 marketing year.
📊 Inflation Update
The December CPI showed inflation at 2.7% year over year, unchanged from November and in line with expectations. Food prices jumped 0.7% month over month, the largest increase since October 2022.
Despite tariff concerns, inflation remains relatively stable, and the report is unlikely to change the Fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts. See CPI chart below.
🌎 Largest US Landowner
The owner of the LA Rams and Denver Nuggets is now the largest landowner in the US. Stan Kroenke recently purchased 1 million acres in New Mexico, bringing his total US landholdings to over 2.7 million acres.
Other top landowners include:
Emmerson Family: ~2.5 million acres
John Malone: ~2.2 million acres
Ted Turner: ~2.0 million acres
Jeff Bezos: ~462,000 acres
Bill Gates: ~275,000 acres
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🌽 Corn
Corn futures plunged on Monday, with prices down nearly 6%, marking the largest single-day decline since June 2023. The selloff followed a decidedly bearish report from the USDA.
The agency raised its estimate of the 2025 U.S. corn crop to a record 17.02 billion bushels, up 269 million bushels from the prior forecast. USDA also increased last year’s national average yield to a record 186.5 bpa, up from 186 bpa previously. Many analysts had expected cuts to both production and yield following dry fall conditions, making the revisions a surprise.
USDA also boosted December 1 corn stocks to 13.3 billion bushels, the largest Dec. 1 corn stocks on record.
🌾 Winter Wheat
US winter wheat acreage is expected to decline marginally for the 2026 crop. USDA estimates 33.0 million acres planted, slightly below last year’s 33.2 million acres but above analyst expectations of 32.4 million.
Notably, USDA is forecasting record-low winter wheat acres in Nebraska and California.
Hard red winter wheat: slightly lower year over year
Soft red winter wheat: modest increase
White winter wheat: sharp decline
🚜 Farm Policy & Aid
The American Farm Bureau Federation is calling for additional farmer aid. AFBF President Zippy Duvall said the Trump administration’s $12 billion Farmer Bridge Assistance program is welcomed, but falls far short of offsetting tens of billions of dollars in recent farm losses.
Duvall is urging:
Expanded trade opportunities
Labor reform
Year-round approval of E15, which could boost corn demand and lower fuel costs
Farm Bureau supports greater market access for U.S. agriculture while opposing President Trump’s tariffs.
🚢 Exports & Demand
US soybean shipments beat expectations last week. USDA reported 1.5 mmt (56 mil bu) of soybeans inspected for export during the week ending January 8 — up 55% week over week and up 13% year over year. China accounted for 59% of the total.
Corn inspections: 1.5 mmt (59 mil bu), near the upper end of expectations
Wheat inspections: 317,465 mt (12 mil bu), sharply higher week over week
USDA also announced multiple flash sales of corn:
204,000 mt to South Korea
310,000 mt to unknown destinations
Both for 2025/26 delivery.
🏛️ Macro & Markets
Republican lawmakers are pushing back against the Justice Department’s investigation into Jerome Powell, arguing it could undermine Fed independence. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly warned President Donald Trump that the probe could spook financial markets.
Trump denied knowledge of the investigation, which comes amid months of pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates further. The controversy could complicate Trump’s efforts to nominate Powell’s successor.
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🌽 USDA Reports Preview (Crop Production, WASDE & Grain Stocks)
USDA will release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports on Monday, along with the quarterly Grain Stocks report.
• Analysts expect a notable decline in US corn production and yield, though both would still be record large
• Soybean production and yield are forecast to slip modestly
• US ending stocks for corn and wheat are expected to edge lower
• Soybean ending stocks are projected to increase slightly
• Corn exports are forecast at record highs
• Soybean exports are expected to decline amid slow sales to China
• World ending stocks are expected to remain largely unchanged
🇨🇳 China Buys More US Soybeans
China purchased at least 10 cargoes of US soybeans on Friday for April–May shipment.
• At least eight cargoes will ship from the US Gulf
• The remainder will ship from the PNW
• The deal follows another 10-cargo purchase earlier in the week by Sinograin
• Several smaller flash sales were also reported last week
Despite the recent buying, traders remain uncertain about if and when the soybeans will ultimately ship.
🚢 USDA Flash Sale Update
USDA reported a flash sale of 198,000mt (7 mil bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2025/26 marketing year.
• Accumulated US soybean sales are down 29% vs. last year
🇧🇷 Brazilian Soybean Harvest Begins
Brazil’s soybean harvest is underway and running ahead of normal.
• 0.53% harvested vs. a five-year average of 0.39%
• Only 0.05% was harvested at this time last year
• Warm, dry weather is expected to persist
Both Conab and USDA are projecting a record Brazilian soybean crop.
📊 CFTC Fund Positioning
For the week ending January 6:
• Funds were net buyers of corn
• Net sellers of soybeans (continuing a large liquidation trend)
• Net sellers of SRW wheat
💳 Trump Calls for Credit Card Rate Cap
President Trump is calling for a 10% cap on credit card interest rates for one year, down from current rates near 20%.
• Banks warn the move could reduce credit availability
• Riskier borrowers could face credit line cuts, higher fees, or larger minimum payments
• Proposal could take effect as early as January 20
Shares of some credit card companies were lower this morning, with Capital One down about 2.5%.
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🌽 USDA Crop Production & WASDE Preview
USDA will release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports on Monday, alongside the quarterly Grain Stocks report. Analysts are expecting a notable decline in U.S. corn production and yield, while soybean production and yield are forecast to slip modestly. U.S. ending stocks for corn and wheat are projected to edge lower, while soybean ending stocks are expected to increase slightly. World-ending stocks are forecast to remain mostly unchanged, except for wheat, where a sizable increase is anticipated.
📉 2026 Corn Price Outlook
Ample global corn supplies are expected to keep prices under pressure in 2026. University of Missouri Extension ag economist Ben Brown expects U.S. corn acreage to fall to 95 million acres this year as farmers respond to tight margins. Even with fewer acres, last year’s record corn crop continues to weigh on prices. Brown sees limited upside unless a major South American weather event hits yields—and even then, any rally is likely to be short-lived. Ethanol demand remains a bright spot, and finalized biofuel regulations could provide additional support. Ultimately, meaningful price improvement will require reduced global production.
🚢 Weekly Export Sales
U.S. corn export sales were weak last week. For the week ending January 1, net corn sales hit a marketing-year low at 377,600 mt (15 million bushels), down 49% from the previous week and 76% below the prior four-week average. South Korea was the top buyer. Despite the poor weekly number, accumulated corn sales remain 30% above last year.
Net soybean sales totaled 877,900 mt (32 million bushels), down 26% week-over-week and 42% below the four-week average. China accounted for roughly half of total sales.
Net wheat sales came in at 118,700 mt (4 million bushels), below expectations for the second straight week. Sales were up 24% from last week but down 55% from the four-week average. The Philippines was the largest buyer.
🐄 Cattle Markets & Screwworm Update
New World screwworm cases in Mexico have dropped sharply in recent weeks. Mexico’s ag ministry reports cases are down 57% since mid-December, with 492 active cases concentrated in a handful of states. Construction of a sterile-fly breeding facility in southern Mexico is roughly halfway complete and is expected to begin operations in the first half of this year. Despite improvement, three cases have been confirmed in Tamaulipas near the Texas border since late December. The ongoing border closure, in place since May 2025, continues to tighten feeder cattle supplies and push cattle prices to record highs.
🌱 China Soybean Flash Sale
USDA reported a soybean flash sale on Thursday. U.S. exporters sold 132,000 mt (5 million bushels) of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year. China has now completed more than 80% of its 12 mmt U.S. soybean purchase agreement.
🌡️ Drought Monitor Update
USDA’s latest drought monitor shows worsening conditions across much of the Corn Belt following a warm, dry winter. About 37% of the Corn Belt is now experiencing some level of drought, up from 29% at this time last year. The High Plains also saw temperatures well above normal—some areas running as much as 15°F above average—resulting in the driest start to winter on record in parts of the region.
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🌱 Grain Markets
Soybean futures rallied on Wednesday, with the Mar26 contract jumping nearly 11 cents to settle around $10.67. The move was driven by renewed Chinese demand, including reports that Sinograin purchased multiple U.S. soybean cargoes, plus a confirmed flash sale to China earlier this week. Corn and wheat futures also closed higher.
🥩 New U.S. Dietary Guidelines
Updated U.S. dietary guidelines place a stronger emphasis on protein intake and full-fat dairy, while discouraging ultra-processed foods, added sugars, and refined carbs. The new guidance calls for protein at every meal and higher daily intake levels than previously recommended. Unlike past guidelines, there’s less focus on plant-based proteins or whole grains. The American Heart Association pushed back, warning of potential cardiovascular risks tied to higher consumption of red meat, salt, and full-fat dairy.
🌽 Ethanol Update
U.S. ethanol production declined modestly last week, while ethanol stocks increased. Despite the production dip, margins remain solid across much of the Corn Belt, with many plants still running comfortably in positive territory based on current corn, DDG, and input prices.
🏠 Housing & Interest Rates
Mortgage rates dropped to their lowest level in more than a year. Lower borrowing costs have boosted both home purchase activity and refinancing interest, with buyers responding quickly to improved affordability.
🏘️ Institutional Home Buying Debate
President Trump proposed banning institutional investors from purchasing single-family homes as part of a broader housing affordability push. Markets reacted negatively, though economists note institutional investors own only a small share of the total housing stock. Critics warn the policy could reduce housing supply and potentially worsen affordability rather than improve it.
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🍭 Sugar, Diet Guidelines & Corn Demand
The Trump administration is expected to advise Americans to cut back on sugar consumption under the new Dietary Guidelines set for release later this week. Americans—especially children—will be encouraged to consume no more than 10 grams of added sugar per meal. The guidelines are also expected to push lower consumption of highly processed foods and encourage higher daily protein intake.
The existing recommendation limiting saturated fat to no more than 10% of daily calories is expected to remain unchanged. One challenge could be implementation in schools, as many cafeterias aren’t equipped to prepare meals from scratch.
Corn plays a major role here. In 2023, added sugars—including high-fructose corn syrup and glucose/dextrose—accounted for roughly 770 million bushels of corn demand, or about 5.3% of total U.S. corn usage.
🌱 China Buys U.S. Soybeans
USDA reported a soybean flash sale on Tuesday, with exporters selling 336,000 mt (12 million bushels) to China for delivery during the 2025/26 marketing year.
According to traders, China’s state stockpiler Sinograin purchased roughly 10 U.S. soybean cargoes this week, totaling about 600,000 mt (22 million bushels) for shipment between March and May. Estimates suggest China’s total U.S. purchases are now nearing 10 mmt, representing more than 80% of the reported 12 mmt purchase agreement.
Additional flash sales may be reported today given ongoing trade chatter.
🚢 Brazil Export Update
Brazil’s soybean exports hit a record high in 2025, according to shipping agency Cargonave. Shipments rose 11.7% year over year to 108.68 mmt, driven by a record harvest and surging Chinese demand.
Soybean meal exports also reached a record 23.1 mmt, while corn exports totaled 41.7 mmt, up nearly 11% from last year. Brazil is once again projected to produce a record soybean crop in the coming season.
🚜 Farmer Sentiment Slips
U.S. farmer sentiment declined modestly in December. Purdue University’s CME Group Ag Economy Barometer fell to 136, down slightly from November. The drop was driven by weaker long-term expectations, while near-term sentiment held steadier.
Trade policy remains a major concern. Nearly one-fifth of farmers said they’re uncertain how tariffs will affect the ag economy long-term. Competition from Brazil continues to weigh heavily on soybean outlooks. Still, three-quarters of respondents believe the U.S. is headed in the right direction—the highest reading since the question was introduced.
📈 Stocks, Oil & Venezuela
U.S. equity markets rallied Tuesday despite geopolitical uncertainty. The Dow Jones climbed to a new record above 49,000, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also hit record highs.
Markets appear to view recent U.S.–Venezuela developments as modestly bullish for oil supply. Late Tuesday, President Trump announced Venezuela would turn over 30–50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the U.S. In response, WTI crude fell to $56.25 per barrel.
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🌎 Geopolitics & Oil
The U.S. removal of Nicolás Maduro could significantly complicate **China’s oil and investment ties with Venezuela.
For years, China has been Venezuela’s largest oil buyer and creditor. While Venezuelan crude made up just about 4% of China’s total oil imports last year, it has played an important role in diversifying China’s energy supply.
President Trump’s push to take control of Venezuela’s oil industry is expected to weaken China’s influence in the region, introduce financial risks for Chinese banks, and force Beijing to reassess its broader Latin America strategy.
Through 2015, China extended more than $60 billion in oil-backed loans to Venezuela for infrastructure and energy projects. Roughly 20% of those loans are believed to be unpaid—raising major questions about repayment now that Maduro is out of power.
We’ve seen similar U.S. responses before when foreign powers got “too close to home,” including:
Cuba / Soviet Union (1962)
Grenada / Soviet Union (1983)
Panama / Noriega (1989)
🚢 Export Inspections
USDA reported stronger soybean inspections last week.
Soybeans: 980,518 mt
Up from the prior week
Down vs. last year
China accounted for roughly 40%
Corn: 1.2 mmt
Lower vs. last week
Strongly higher vs. last year
Wheat: 183,305 mt
Below expectations
Sharply lower week-over-week and year-over-year
Marketing-year-to-date shipments:
Soybeans: sharply behind last year
Corn: well ahead
Wheat: modestly higher
📊 Export Sales (Catch-Up Report)
USDA released its final catch-up export sales report for the week ending December 25.
Soybeans: Solid weekly sales, with China the top buyer
Corn: Toward the low end of expectations, led by Mexico
Wheat: Below expectations, with Colombia the top destination
🌱 Brazil Crop Update
StoneX raised its Brazilian soybean production estimate slightly to a record 177.6 mmt, citing excellent December growing conditions and strong yields in Mato Grosso.
Conab: 177.6 mmt
USDA: 175 mmt
Based on current USDA estimates, Brazil’s soybean crop is more than 50% larger than the U.S. crop this season.
Weather outlook from World Weather suggests generally favorable conditions, though parts of southern Argentina will need closer monitoring due to expected drying.
💰 Fund Positioning
The CFTC is now fully caught up on Commitment of Traders data.
Funds continued selling corn and soybeans
Soybean fund length has dropped sharply since mid-November
Small net buying was seen in SRW wheat
🥇 Metals & Macro
Gold and silver surged amid rising geopolitical tensions.
Prices jumped following Maduro’s removal and comments from President Trump that the U.S. will now control Venezuela, including access to its oil reserves. Tensions also escalated after Trump reiterated his interest in Greenland, prompting sharp pushback from Denmark, which warned such a move would effectively end NATO.
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🌍 Geopolitics & Energy
The US captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife over the weekend. Both have been indicted on multiple charges, including narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine trafficking, and weapons offenses. Maduro is now being held in a federal prison in New York and is expected to make his first court appearance today in Manhattan.
The unprecedented military intervention drew condemnation from Russia and China, while Argentina expressed support. President Trump said the move was necessary to address drug trafficking and what he described as “stolen oil,” adding that the US will be strongly involved in Venezuela’s oil industry going forward.
Crude oil futures fell on last night’s open but are trading near unchanged this morning. The bigger selloff was in natural gas, which is down more than 2.5% early today. Venezuela holds the largest crude oil reserves in the world, though accessing them will take years and massive capital investment. The country also has large natural gas reserves, which could be easier to develop.
🚜 Farm Aid Update
USDA announced payment rates under the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program on New Year’s Eve. The agency will distribute $12 billion total, with $11 billion allocated to one-time payments for row crops and $1 billion directed to specialty crops and sugar.
Payment rates:
Corn: $44.36 per acre
Soybeans: $30.88 per acre
Wheat: $39.35 per acre
Payments are based on 2025 planted acres. Second crop acres are eligible, while prevent plant acres are excluded. Farmers are expected to receive payments by the end of February. See graphics below. Click HERE and HERE for USDA links.
🌱 Grain Markets & Weather
Soybean futures fell on Friday, with the Mar26 contract down nearly 10 cents before recovering. China’s purchase program now appears to be a mostly “known” factor for the current marketing year, with expectations that China will reach the 12mmt US purchase target over the next couple of months.
Brazil’s forecast turns slightly drier early this week, while southern Argentina remains dry for at least another week.
🐄 Livestock
Mexico reported new cases of New World screwworm last week, including a goat in central Mexico and a calf in Tamaulipas near the US border. No additional animals tested positive at either site.
The news sent live and feeder cattle futures sharply higher. The US–Mexico border is expected to remain closed to Mexican feeder cattle imports for the foreseeable future. Since November 2024, authorities have recorded over 13,000 cases, with several hundred currently active.
⛽ Ethanol
US ethanol production rose to a weekly high last week at 1.12 million barrels per day. Output was higher week-over-week and year-over-year. Ethanol stocks increased slightly but remain below last year’s levels.
According to Reuters data, ethanol margins remain positive across the Corn Belt, ranging from roughly 5 to 25 cents per gallon.
🚢 Export Sales
USDA released another delayed export sales report:
Soybean sales missed expectations and were sharply lower week-over-week, with China accounting for most of the total
Corn sales exceeded expectations, led by Mexico
Wheat sales came in near the low end of expectations
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🌏 China Grain & Soybean Strategy Update
China is pushing to reduce its reliance on grain and soybean imports in the name of food security. State media says Beijing plans to boost domestic grain and oilseed production through better seed quality, upgraded machinery, and more advanced farming practices. Trade tensions with the U.S. have accelerated this shift toward ag self-sufficiency. China also plans to support farm incomes, protect migrant worker employment, and extend rural land-use contracts by an additional 30 years after 2027.
China’s grain production hit a record high this year, rising 1.2% to 714.9mmt. Corn and wheat self-sufficiency looks achievable, but soybeans remain a much tougher challenge.
📉 Grain & Oilseed Market Recap
Soybean futures edged lower Tuesday, with the Mar26 contract slipping about a penny to settle near $10.62. This came despite China returning to the U.S. market with a soybean flash sale, as expectations for a record Brazilian crop continued to pressure prices. Corn futures moved lower on South American crop optimism, while wheat futures also finished lower amid hopes for progress in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and expectations for a record Argentine wheat harvest.
🌧️ South American Weather Update
Brazilian weather continues to support ideas of a large soybean crop. According to CropProphet data, Brazilian soybean areas received 106% of normal rainfall over the last 14 days (production-weighted). Forecasts remain favorable, with near-normal rainfall expected in both the 1–7 and 8–14 day periods, though amounts will vary.
Argentina is a different story, with very little rain expected over the next week. Euro model guidance suggests rainfall returns to normal in the 8–14 day window, with rains likely returning to corn and soybean areas around Tuesday next week. Some southern regions may wait longer.
🌾 Argentina Crop Update
Argentina’s wheat crop is now projected at a record 27.8mmt, up from 27.1mmt previously, thanks to favorable weather and strong yields. About 93% of the wheat crop has been harvested. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange also reports soybean planting at 82% and corn planting at 84%. Hot and dry conditions ahead could still pose risks for corn and soybeans.
🚢 USDA Flash Sales
USDA reported soybean flash sales Tuesday:
• 136,000mt (5 mil bu) sold to China for 2025/26 delivery
• 231,000mt (8 mil bu) sold to unknown destinations for 2025/26 delivery
🏦 Federal Reserve & Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates steady near term. December meeting minutes show growing resistance to additional cuts as inflation pressures persist. Strong economic growth and consumer spending have reduced the urgency for easing, even as unemployment has ticked higher. The Fed’s dot plot now projects just one rate cut in all of 2026. Markets are pricing an 83% chance of no cut in January, with slightly higher odds for a cut in March.
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🌱 Soybean Export Inspections
US soybean shipments disappointed again last week. Export inspections came in near the low end of expectations, with shipments well below both last week and last year. China was barely present, accounting for only a small share of total inspections. On a marketing-year basis, soybean shipments continue to lag badly compared to last year.
🌽 Corn & Wheat Shipments
Corn inspections beat expectations, even though they slipped from the prior week. Compared to last year, corn shipments remain strong and well ahead on a cumulative basis. Wheat inspections also topped estimates, though they were sharply lower week-to-week and modestly below last year’s pace.
🚢 Flash Sale & Export Sales
USDA reported a flash sale of soybeans to Egypt early this week. Despite that sale, total accumulated soybean sales for the marketing year remain significantly behind last year, reinforcing ongoing demand concerns.
🌎 China Shifts Away from US Ag
China continues pouring money into Latin American ports, railways, and logistics. These investments are designed to lock in cheaper, faster access to South American ag products—especially soybeans. With Chinese involvement now spread across dozens of ports, global trade flows are shifting in a way that may be extremely difficult for the US to reverse, even if trade relations improve.
📉 Grain Futures Slide
Corn futures dropped sharply on Monday amid speculation that China could release domestic grain reserves, potentially displacing corn with older wheat in feed rations. Soybeans followed lower, pressured by weak export demand and ongoing global competition. Wheat futures also finished the day in the red.
🥩 Beef Market Outlook
Beef prices could stay elevated as Brazilian cattle production slows. Brazil is entering a contraction phase as producers retain heifers, while the US cattle herd remains at its smallest level in decades. Even with lower production, Brazil is still expected to remain the world’s top beef exporter.
🪙 Silver Takes a Hit
Silver prices saw a massive one-day sell-off after Friday’s historic rally. The drop was driven by profit-taking and technical pressure rather than a fundamental shift. Despite the sharp decline, silver remains dramatically higher on the year, with volatility still front and center.
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🪙 Precious Metals
Silver prices surged last week, hitting a new all-time high above $78.50 per ounce on Friday. Silver is now up sharply this year, supported by a structural market deficit, strong industrial demand, and expectations for future Federal Reserve rate cuts. The metal is on track for its strongest annual performance since 1979, and some analysts believe the rally could extend into 2026 amid economic uncertainty and sticky inflation. Gold and platinum also reached record highs on Friday.
💵 US Dollar & Interest Rates
The US dollar posted its largest weekly decline in six months. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.8% last week as traders looked ahead to key January jobs and inflation reports. Markets expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady next month, but pricing suggests a rate cut by mid-year and another later in 2026. The dollar is now down roughly 8% on the year — on pace for its worst annual performance since 2017.
See charts below.
🌧️ South American Weather
Dry weather is expected across key Argentine corn and soybean areas over the next seven days. Large portions of Buenos Aires, La Pampa, and Córdoba are forecast to receive little to no rainfall, while areas farther north may see only limited precipitation. The 8–14 day forecast calls for a return to more normal rainfall across much of Argentina. Meanwhile, mostly normal rainfall is expected across major Brazilian soybean regions during the next two weeks.
🌽 Grain Markets
Corn futures drifted lower on Friday, with the Mar26 contract slipping one cent to settle near $4.50. Thin holiday trade and a lack of fresh catalysts kept activity subdued. Soybean futures also declined, as the Jan26 contract fell nearly 5 cents to close near $10.59. Beans remain under pressure from ample global supplies and ongoing concerns about the pace of Chinese buying. Chicago wheat futures moved lower as peace talks between Russia and Ukraine continued.
🌍 Geopolitics
President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met Sunday to continue peace negotiations. Trump said the US and Ukraine are very close to an agreement to end the war, though key issues — including the future of the Donbas region — remain unresolved. No formal deadline was set, but Trump suggested clarity could come within weeks. Ahead of the meeting, Trump also spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin, describing the call as productive and noting Putin’s interest in helping rebuild Ukraine, including supplying low-cost energy.
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🚁 Drone Industry Shock
A new ban on Chinese-made drones is sending shockwaves through the U.S. drone industry.
On Monday, the FCC banned drones and critical components manufactured in certain foreign countries, citing national security risks. The restrictions primarily target Chinese manufacturers—including DJI, which controls an estimated 70–90% of the U.S. drone market.
The ban does not apply to drones already purchased or currently sitting in stores, though the FCC has left the door open to expanding restrictions to older models in the future.
U.S. officials have long warned that Chinese-made drones could allow data access or interference by the Chinese government. Drone pilots and ag operators warn that under the new rules, many businesses may only have a few years left.
🌽 USDA Export Sales (Catch-Up Edition)
USDA released another outdated, catch-up Export Sales report on Tuesday.
Soybeans: Strong sales at 2.4 mmt, up sharply from the prior week
China was the top buyer, accounting for 58% of total sales
Corn: Solid sales near the high end of expectations at 1.7 mmt
Japan was the largest buyer
Wheat: Sales totaled 432,600 mt, with Mexico leading purchases
Official U.S. soybean sales to China now stand at 5.4 mmt, though real-time estimates suggest the total could be closer to 7–8 mmt.
USDA says Export Sales reports will be fully current by January 8th.
🌱 Grain Market Update
Soybean futures edged lower Tuesday.
The Jan ’26 contract slipped slightly, as traders remain cautious about the pace of Chinese buying and the looming pressure from another record Brazilian soybean crop.
While the market often sees a year-end rally, bearish fundamentals continue to cap upside.
🇺🇸 U.S. Economy Update
The U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace in more than two years during the third quarter.
GDP expanded at an annualized 4.3%, beating expectations. Growth was driven mainly by strong consumer spending, along with higher exports and government spending.
Notably, analysts pointed out that rising healthcare costs accounted for a meaningful share of Q3 GDP growth.
🥇 Precious Metals Explosion
Precious metals ripped to record highs on Tuesday.
Silver surged past $70/oz
Gold climbed above $4,490/oz
Platinum and palladium also moved sharply higher
The rally has been fueled by geopolitical tensions, expectations for U.S. rate cuts, central bank buying, and strong investment demand.
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🏛️ USDA Workforce Cuts & Data Quality
The US Department of Agriculture saw a massive workforce reduction in the first half of the year. Between January and June, more than 20,000 employees left the agency—about 18% of total staff.
Most departures were tied to the Trump administration’s voluntary resignation program, which offered up to six months’ pay. Over 15,000 employees accepted the program, while roughly 2,000 resigned and about 1,300 retired.
The National Agricultural Statistics Service was hit especially hard, losing more than one-third of its workforce. DTN reported that NASS alone lost 275 employees—about 34% of staff—during the first six months of the year.
A USDA Office of Inspector General report shows that another 4,200 employees left between June and October. While USDA says it continues to hire for critical roles and refocus on a “farmer-first” mission, some recent USDA data issues are likely tied to severe understaffing.
🚢 Weekly Export Inspections
US soybean shipments were weak last week, landing near the low end of expectations. USDA reported soybean inspections at 870,199 mt, up from the prior week but sharply lower versus last year. About 44% of shipments were headed to China.
Corn shipments were strong, coming in at 1.7 mmt, well above last year. Wheat shipments also beat expectations at 627,443 mt.
Soybean shipments to China totaled 386,010 mt. Only one cargo moved through the PNW, with the rest shipped out of the Gulf.
🌱 Brazil Soybean Crop Outlook
AgRural raised its estimate for Brazil’s soybean crop to a record 180.4 mmt, well above last season and above USDA’s forecast. Crop conditions have been favorable so far, and harvest has begun in parts of Parana and Mato Grosso.
Conab is forecasting production slightly lower, but still historically large. Yield potential will depend heavily on weather in the months ahead.
🌍 Wheat Market & Black Sea Tensions
Wheat futures moved higher amid escalating Black Sea tensions. Russia increased attacks near Ukraine’s Odesa region, while Ukraine struck Russia’s port of Taman. The disruption risks pushed Chicago wheat futures higher on the session.
📢 USDA Flash Sales & Export Sales
USDA reported another flash sale of soybeans to China, with most of the volume booked for the 2025/26 marketing year.
Export sales data showed strong soybean sales, led by China, while corn and wheat sales came in lower week-to-week. The report was part of USDA’s ongoing catch-up releases.
💰 Gold & Macro Markets
Gold surged to a new record above $4,400 per ounce, supported by geopolitical risk and expectations for interest rate cuts next year. Rising global tensions and uncertainty continue to drive safe-haven demand. Silver prices also moved sharply higher.
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🌾 USDA Farm Aid Update
The USDA confirmed it has no plans for additional farm assistance beyond the recently announced $12 billion aid package.
Farmers continue to face weak markets, high input costs, and trade disruptions tied to President Trump’s tariffs.
Estimated farm losses could reach $44 billion this year, far exceeding available aid.
USDA acknowledged the shortfall but cited funding limitations.
Payments are expected to be distributed by late February, with Farmer Bridge Assistance Program payment rates due before year-end.
🏛️ Treasury Secretary Sells Farmland
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has completed the sale of his North Dakota farmland following ethics scrutiny.
Through a partnership, Bessent owned 5,000+ acres generating rental income.
In October, he referred to himself as a “soybean farmer,” drawing criticism because the land was held purely as an investment.
Ethics rules required divestment upon taking office, but illiquidity delayed the sale.
The land was sold on December 15 for roughly $12.4 million to an entity tied to a longtime friend and business partner.
🌽 Brazil Corn Crop Trimmed
Safras & Mercado lowered Brazil’s corn crop estimate to 142.9 mmt, slightly below its prior forecast.
The estimate still sits well above USDA’s outlook (131 mmt) and Conab’s 138.8 mmt.
Weather remains mostly favorable with abundant rainfall and near-to-above-average temperatures expected.
🇨🇳 China Soybean Imports: No U.S. Beans in November
China imported zero U.S. soybeans in November for the third straight month, versus 2.8 mmt last year.
Brazil accounted for 72% of November imports (up 49% YoY).
Argentina surged, supplying 22% of imports (up 634% YoY).
Through November, China imported 103.8 mmt, with the U.S. making up just 16%.
Since the October trade truce, traders estimate China has bought 7+ mmt of U.S. soybeans.
Recent U.S. shipments should appear in December customs data.
USDA’s Export Inspections report today may confirm additional shipments.
🚨 USDA Flash Sale
U.S. exporters sold 134,000 mt (5 mil bushels) of soybeans to China for 2025/26 delivery.
Total Chinese purchases for the current marketing year now stand at 3.845 mmt (141 mil bushels) across 15 flash sales.
📊 CFTC Fund Positioning
The CFTC released another delayed Commitment of Traders report.
For the week ending December 9:
Funds were net sellers of corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat.
Soybean net length remains one of the largest on record.
The CFTC expects to be fully current by month-end.
🐄 Bullish Cattle on Feed Report
As of December 1:
Cattle on feed totaled 11.73 million head, down 2% YoY.
November placements fell 11% YoY, the lowest for the month since 1996.
Marketings declined 12% YoY, matching expectations.
The report is bullish, but holiday timing may limit near-term market reaction.
🏭 More Packing Plant Closures Possible
Tight cattle supplies continue to pressure packer margins.
Plants are operating below capacity, raising closure risks.
Recent closures and cutbacks by Tyson highlight the strain.
Restrictions on Mexican feeder cattle imports have worsened supply issues.
Even if borders reopen, rebuilding the U.S. herd will take years, not months.
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Corn futures moved higher for a second straight session on Thursday. The Mar26 contract settled near $4.45, supported by strong export demand.
Accumulated US corn sales through the end of November are running well ahead of last year.
Wheat futures finished higher on short covering but remain near two-month lows.
Soybean futures continued to slide, pressured by uncertainty around Chinese buying.
There was chatter of possible Chinese purchases of US corn out of the PNW (several cargoes). A USDA flash sale today or Monday would confirm the business.
🥩 Beef Prices
Beef prices remain near record highs.
Ground beef prices jumped again in November, now well above last year’s levels.
Steak prices have also climbed sharply, depending on the cut.
The biggest driver continues to be the smallest US cowherd in more than 70 years, paired with strong consumer demand.
The Trump administration recently removed tariffs on Brazilian beef imports and called for a price-fixing investigation into the major packers.
Despite higher projected beef imports, prices are expected to stay elevated.
🌱 USDA Flash Sales
USDA reported a flash sale of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2025/26 marketing year.
A large volume of soybeans has now been sold to unknown destinations this year, with speculation that China accounts for roughly half.
📦 Export Sales Report
Corn export sales were strong again, with Japan leading buyers.
Soybean sales slowed from the prior week, though China was the top buyer.
Wheat sales increased week over week, with Bangladesh leading purchases.
📉 Inflation Update
CPI eased in November, coming in below expectations.
Food and energy prices were key contributors to slower inflation.
The data was collected later than usual due to the government shutdown, raising questions about accuracy.
There’s concern inflation could reaccelerate in December.
🌧️ Drought Monitor
Scattered precipitation improved drought conditions in parts of Iowa and Ohio.
Drought worsened in portions of Kentucky, Illinois, and Missouri.
Conditions across the High Plains were mostly unchanged.
US Areas Experiencing Drought
Corn: 32%
Soybeans: 33%
Winter Wheat: 36%
Spring Wheat: 16%
Cattle: 27%
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🌱 China Soybean Buying—What’s Really Going On?
Bloomberg reported overnight that China has quietly bought at least half of its 12mmt US soybean commitment. Anonymous sources say Sinograin purchased roughly 2mmt last week, with buying continuing this week.
Official USDA data still shows less than 4mmt of confirmed soybean sales to China so far this marketing year. Flash sales to China over the last 10 days total just 1.2mmt. Meanwhile, roughly 3mmt of US soybeans have been sold to unknown destinations, with the market widely believing China accounts for about half of that volume.
📊 USDA Flash Sales Recap
USDA reported multiple flash sales on Wednesday:
Soybeans sold to China for 2025/26 delivery
Additional soybeans sold to unknown destinations
Corn sold to Mexico
A cancellation of white wheat to China, originally reported in November
This mix of sales and cancellations continues to add noise to the market.
🌾 Grain Futures – Wheat Weighs on the Complex
Chicago wheat futures fell for a fourth straight session, hitting their lowest level in nearly two months as global supplies remain ample and peace talks between Russia and Ukraine continue.
Despite the China buying headlines, soybean futures also declined for a fourth straight day. Corn was the lone bright spot, posting modest gains, though wheat weakness limited upside.
⚠️ Russia / Ukraine – Export Disruptions Escalate
Russia has intensified attacks on Black Sea ports and energy infrastructure in southern Ukraine, forcing temporary shutdowns at several grain terminals.
Ukraine has shipped just 36% of its contracted wheat exports for the month so far. Rail infrastructure feeding ports has also been targeted, contributing to a sharp year-over-year decline in wheat exports this marketing year.
💰 Fund Positioning – CFTC Catch-Up Report
The CFTC released another delayed Commitment of Traders report. Large money managers were net buyers of corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat.
The soybean fund long remains one of the largest on record, keeping downside risk elevated if sentiment shifts. The CFTC expects to be fully current by the end of December.
⛽ Ethanol – New All-Time Production High
US ethanol production surged to a new record, while ethanol stocks declined. According to Reuters data, ethanol margins have strengthened, now running modestly positive across much of the Corn Belt.
📌 Bottom Line
China appears to be buying more US soybeans than official data suggests—yet futures keep falling. We’ll explain why the market doesn’t care (yet) and what actually needs to change to stabilize prices.
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🏥 ACA Health Insurance & Farmers
Enhanced premium tax credits under the Affordable Care Act are scheduled to expire in 2026, which could lead to huge increases in health insurance premiums.
Farmers, ranchers, and other self-employed individuals are especially exposed since they don’t have employer-sponsored coverage.
Some families could see premiums jump by more than $20,000 per year. Affordable ACA plans have played a key role in supporting rural economies. Without them, more families may be forced into off-farm work, and rural hospitals could feel added financial strain.
As an alternative, 13 state Farm Bureaus now offer non-ACA-compliant health plans that are significantly cheaper. This issue impacts nearly every business owner and self-employed worker—and could weigh on the broader economy as disposable income shrinks.
🌱 Grain Markets
Soybean futures continued lower on Tuesday. The Jan26 contract fell 9 cents, settling near $10.63, as traders unwound long positions amid weak US export demand and expectations for a massive Brazilian crop.
Corn and wheat also finished lower. Despite solid export demand, Mar26 corn slipped about 3 cents to close near $4.37.
Chicago wheat was pressured by ample global supplies, with March futures down roughly 11 cents near $5.10.
🇨🇳 China & Soybeans
China’s state stockpiler Sinograin auctioned roughly 323,000mt of imported soybeans, about 63% of the total offered, to make room for incoming US supplies.
Another auction later this week will offer 550,000mt, and traders expect around 4mmt to be sold in this auction cycle.
The move comes despite ample domestic inventories, as Beijing has pledged to increase purchases of US soybeans.
👷 US Labor Market
The labor market remains sluggish. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 64,000 in November, following a sharp 105,000 decline in October, the largest drop since 2020.
Much of the weakness was tied to falling federal employment during the shutdown.
The unemployment rate climbed to 4.6%, the highest since 2021, reflecting softer hiring and higher labor force participation.
Part-time employment for economic reasons and long-term unemployment also increased.
🛢️ Oil & Energy
Oil prices tumbled Tuesday. WTI crude fell 2.7% to $55.27, the lowest level since February 2021.
The drop was driven by ample global supplies, rising OPEC+ production, strong US output, and growing optimism around a potential Russia-Ukraine peace agreement.
Lower crude prices have pushed US gasoline prices below $3 per gallon, the cheapest level in nearly five years.
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🌱 NOPA Soybean Crush
NOPA released its November crush report on Monday
US soybean crush hit an all-time November record
Crush was lower than October’s record, but well above last year
End-of-month soybean oil stocks jumped sharply, reaching a 7-month high
Oil stocks also came in above trade expectations
📉 Soybean Futures Pressure
Soybean futures extended losses on Monday
The Jan26 contract settled near $10.72
Market pressure continues from:
Slow Chinese buying
Expectations of a massive Brazilian crop hitting export channels
A near-record speculative long position that leaves the market vulnerable to liquidation
🚢 Export Inspections Update
US soybean inspections disappointed last week
Shipments were well below last year’s pace
About one-quarter of soybeans were headed to China
Corn and wheat inspections were near the high end of expectations
Northern Plains soybean basis remains weak due to limited PNW movement
🧪 Fertilizer Market News
The US lifted sanctions on Belarusian potash over the weekend
US fertilizer stocks fell sharply on Monday in response
Belarus still faces logistical hurdles, limiting near-term impact
Belarus accounts for only a small share of US potash supply
Trump’s threat of tariffs on Canadian fertilizer remains the much bigger market risk
📦 USDA Flash Sales
USDA reported additional flash sales on Monday
Soybeans sold to China for next marketing year delivery
Corn sold to unknown destinations
📑 Export Sales Report (Catch-Up Edition)
USDA released another outdated export sales report
Soybean sales were strong, led almost entirely by China
Corn sales slipped from the prior week
Wheat sales landed near the low end of expectations
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🌱 Soybean, Corn & Wheat Markets
Soybean futures plunged on Friday, with the Jan ’26 contract falling nearly 17 cents to around $10.77 — the lowest level since late October. The pressure came from slowing U.S. export demand as the seasonal export window closes and growing expectations for a massive Brazilian crop. Brazilian soybeans are expected to hit the export market by mid- to late January and will likely be priced at a discount to U.S. supplies, adding further downside risk. Corn and wheat futures also finished the day lower.
📊 CFTC Commitment of Traders (COT)
The CFTC released another outdated, catch-up COT report. As of November 18, large money managers were net buyers across the grain complex. Funds were heavily long soybeans, sitting just shy of an all-time record. Notably, this was the exact time the soybean market peaked. Private estimates during the government shutdown significantly underestimated fund length, making this information largely useless from a grain marketing standpoint in real time.
🚢 USDA Flash Sales & China Watch
USDA reported multiple flash sales on Friday, including soybeans sold to China, soybean meal sold to Mexico, and corn sold to unknown destinations. Officially, China has purchased just over 3 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans for the current marketing year. However, trade chatter suggests actual purchases could be much larger due to sales listed as “unknown” and potential non-reportable purchases during the shutdown. Some analysts estimate total Chinese buying could be materially higher.
🏗️ Hedge Funds Move Into Physical Commodities
Hedge funds and trading firms are increasingly investing directly in physical commodities like pipelines, storage, power generation, and energy infrastructure. The goal is to gain better data, market insight, and diversification during volatile years. While this can create new profit opportunities, it also puts hedge funds in direct competition with major global trading houses.
⛽ 2026 Biofuel Quotas Delayed
The EPA is expected to delay finalizing 2026 biofuel quotas until next year. The agency is still reviewing public comments and plans additional stakeholder meetings. The decision could become part of a broader negotiation between oil and agricultural interests. While higher biofuel mandates could help farmers, expectations remain muted, with year-round E15 already largely conceded. A mandated E15 requirement would be the only real surprise.
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🌱 Fertilizer Markets
Fertilizer stocks surged Thursday after Ukrainian drones struck two fertilizer plants in western Russia.
While the facilities represent a small share of global capacity, the market is now pricing in higher geopolitical risk and potential supply chain disruptions.
Earlier this week, President Trump threatened “very severe tariffs” on Canadian fertilizer if needed to boost US production.
Canada is the largest supplier of potash to the US, making this a key risk point for US growers.
For many US corn farmers, fertilizer is the 3rd largest expense behind land and machinery.
Nitrogen (N): ~65–75% of total fertilizer costs
Potash (K): ~10–20% of total fertilizer costs
Last month, the Trump administration lifted tariffs on most fertilizer imports, including urea, ammonium nitrate, UAN, ammonium sulfate, TSP, DAP, and MAP.
🌎 Export Flash Sales
Soybeans:
264,000 mt to China (25/26)
266,000 mt to unknown destinations (25/26)
Corn:
186,000 mt to unknown destinations (25/26)
📦 Weekly Export Sales (Catch-Up Report)
Corn: Strong sales at 2.4 mmt, well above expectations
Mexico was the top buyer
Soybeans: Near the low end of expectations but improved week-over-week
Germany was the largest buyer
Small China cancellation
Wheat: Sales beat expectations sharply
Unknown destinations led buying
🇧🇷 South America Update
Conab trimmed Brazil’s soybean crop forecast to 177.1 mmt
Still a record crop if realized
The cut reflects dry November weather and some replanting
About 90% planted as of early December
First exportable supplies expected early January
Total exports estimated at 112 mmt
🌦️ US Drought Monitor
Corn Belt saw cold temps, with most moisture falling as snow
Drought mostly unchanged, but worsened in parts of MO and IN
High Plains dryness ticked higher in SE Kansas and NE Oklahoma
Areas Experiencing Drought:
🌽 Corn: 31%
🌱 Soybeans: 31%
🌾 Winter Wheat: 34%
🌾 Spring Wheat: 16%
🐄 Cattle: 25%
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🏦 Fed Cuts Rates for the Third Straight Meeting
The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates another quarter point on Wednesday, bringing the fed funds rate down to 3.5%–3.75%, the lowest since September 2022. Three FOMC members dissented — the most pushback since 2019 — signaling deep concern about the path forward.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the goal is to steady the labor market while keeping inflation moving toward the 2% target. The Fed’s new projections show just one cut in 2026 and another in 2027, far fewer than markets expected.
Some economists warn that stagflation is becoming a real risk — inflation that stays too high while job growth weakens.
👉 Prices keep rising while the economy slows, family budgets get squeezed, and fixing one problem risks worsening the other.
🌱 Soybeans Rebound on Flash Sales
Soybean futures stabilized after multi-week lows. Jan26 beans +4¢, settling near $10.91 after USDA announced a 5 mil bu sale to China and 12 mil bu to unknown destinations. Gains were limited by ongoing confusion regarding China’s schedule for buying the agreed 12mmt of U.S. soybeans.
Corn and wheat moved lower:
• Mar26 corn −4¢ → ~$4.44
• Mar Chicago wheat −5¢ → ~$5.30
🚢 Fresh Flash Sales Reported Wednesday
USDA confirmed new export activity for 2025/26 delivery:
• 136,000mt soybeans → China (~5 mil bu)
• 331,000mt soybeans → Unknown (~12 mil bu)
• 120,000mt soybean cake & meal → Poland
🌾 Trump Administration Rolls Out $700M Regenerative Ag Pilot
The White House announced a $700 million program under “Make America Healthy Again” to expand practices like cover crops, no-till, conservation planning, and whole-farm soil & water management.
Farmers will apply through EQIP or CSP, with an emphasis on soil health, water quality, and habitat.
📝 Payment rates have not yet been released.
⚓ Ukraine Hits Russia’s Shadow Fleet Again
Ukraine used Sea Baby drones to attack a large Suezmax tanker tied to Russia’s oil trade. The empty vessel (1 million-barrel capacity) suffered major damage.
As these attacks continue:
• Freight costs are expected to rise
• Crews are increasingly wary of Black Sea movements
• Putin warned he may retaliate against vessels controlled by Ukraine’s allies
• He also suggested Russia could cut off Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea entirely
⛽ US Ethanol Production Slips
Weekly ethanol output fell to 1.11 million bpd (−1.9% vs. last week, +3% vs. last year).
Stocks declined to 22.51 million barrels, slightly lower week-over-week and −2.1% versus last year.
Margins have weakened: Reuters estimates break-even to +30¢ across the Corn Belt based on spot corn, DDGs, inputs, and product values.
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🇨🇳 Soybean Purchase Deadline Confusion
Questions remain over China’s commitment to buy 12mmt of US soybeans. On Tuesday, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the deadline isn’t year-end but “end of the growing season.” Nobody seems to agree on what that actually means. The White House fact sheet indicated the end of 2025, while Greer insists there’s a discrepancy in the published deadline vs. the real one.
So far this marketing year, China has purchased only 3mmt of US soybeans. The CNBC article we’re referencing is… interesting. Greer, Bessent, and former USDA chief economist Joe Glauber all seem to have different interpretations of the deadline.
📊 USDA Report—Soybeans Weak, Corn Strong
Tuesday’s WASDE didn’t bring many surprises.
• Soybean exports unchanged at 1.64B bu—a 13-year low
• Ending stocks unchanged at 290M bu
• Exports currently running ~40% below last year → further cuts likely
Corn was the bright spot:
• Record 3.2B bu corn export forecast
• Ending stocks trimmed to 2.03B bu, lower than trade expected
🚜 Deere Responds on High Machinery Costs
After President Trump’s call for lower tractor prices, John Deere says it is helping farmers cut costs—not by lowering sticker prices, but through automation that reduces labor and chemical use.
Equipment inflation has been driven by:
• Post-COVID manufacturing inflation
• Tech advancements
• Steel & aluminum tariffs
🐄 USDA Cuts 2026 Fat Cattle Price Forecast
• New forecast: $235/cwt—down 4.5% from November
• Still 5% above the 2025 projection
USDA cited reduced packing capacity as the driver.
Tyson is closing its Lexington, NE, beef plant and cutting the second shift at Amarillo.
US beef imports for 2026 are now forecast at a record 5.45M lbs, supported by tariff relief on major suppliers like Brazil.
🇦🇷 Argentina Slashes Grain Export Taxes
Permanent tax cuts are coming soon:
• Soybeans 24% → 22%
• Soymeal/soyoil 24.5% → 22.5%
• Corn 9.5% → 8.5%
• Wheat 9.5% → 7.5%
Milei’s government frames this as a step toward fully eliminating export tariffs.
🥈 Silver Breaks Record High
Spot silver rallied ~4% Tuesday to $60.50/oz 📈
Drivers include:
• Expected Fed rate cuts today
• Newly added to US critical minerals list → tariff & supply concerns
• Weaker dollar + geopolitical safe-haven flows
Silver is now up ~110% YTD, beating gold and platinum.
📑 CFTC Data Catch-Up Accelerated
Commitments of Traders Reports will be current by the end of December, not late January.
Expect fast-tracked report releases over the next several weeks.
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🚜 Farm Aid & Tractor Prices
President Trump announced a $12 billion farm aid package on Monday and urged ag equipment makers to lower tractor prices — blaming environmental regulations for higher costs. The administration plans to lift some of those rules to reduce equipment expenses.
• $11B → one-time payments to row-crop farmers under the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) program
• $1B → specialty crops
• Eligibility: AGI below $900k for 2022–24 tax years
• Acreage reporting due by Dec 19 — 5pm ET
• Payments expected by Feb 28, 2026
FBA looks much more like ECAP than the old MFP. Rates aren’t out yet.
Covered crops: Barley, Chickpeas, Corn, Cotton, Lentils, Oats, Peanuts, Peas, Rice, Sorghum, Soybeans, Wheat, Canola, Crambe, Flax, Mustard, Rapeseed, Safflower, Sesame & Sunflower.
📊 USDA Crop Production Report—Today 11:00am CST
Traders expect minimal changes to US ending stocks:
• Corn & wheat → slight declines
• Soybeans → modest increase
Global: slightly more beans & wheat, slightly fewer corn stocks.
🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Outlook
AgRural projects:
• Corn: 135.3mmt (↓ from 141.1mmt record last year)
• Soybeans: 178.5mmt (unchanged)
Dry southern weather remains a risk to yields.
The US crop is ~3.2× bigger than Brazil’s upcoming corn crop—but Brazil will export ~33% of production vs the US at 18–19%. 📦
🇨🇳 Flash Sale to China
Another soybean flash sale Monday:
• 132,000mt (5 mil bu) → China for 25/26 delivery
Since late October, China has now booked 2.85mmt (105 mil bu) via flash sales.
🚢 Export Inspections
Week ending Dec 4:
• Soybeans: 1mmt—+9% vs wk prior but -41% vs last year
• Corn: 1.5 mmt—above expectations, +36% vs last year
• Wheat: 393kmt—+59% vs last year
China finally showed up—119,895 mt of beans were inspected at the Gulf.
PNW still quiet: only one cargo to Taiwan from WA/OR.
📝 Export Sales (still catch-up reports)
Week ending Nov 6:
• Beans: 510,600 mt—down 59% w/w (China lead buyer)
• Corn: 979,500 mt—down 51% w/w (Japan lead buyer)
• Wheat: 462,500 mt—up 8% w/w (Japan lead buyer)
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The Trump administration is expected to announce a $12 billion aid package for farmers today. The announcement will take place around 2 this afternoon in Washington, DC. About $11 billion will go to crop farmers through the new Farmer Bridge Assistance program, with the rest going toward other commodities. The funds have been authorized under the Commodity Credit Corporation Charter Act and will be administered by the FSA.
🎯 China Soybean Purchases Back in Gear!
China resumed buying US soybeans late last week. US exporters reported 462,000mt (17M bushels) sold to China for 25/26 delivery. Since late October, China’s total buys sit at 2.7mmt (~100M bu)… still a long way from the 12mmt commitment. 📉
🤝 US–China Trade Call
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, USTR Jamieson Greer, and China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng held a “productive” video call Friday. The big talking point: the new trade truce and soybean commitments.
🗓️ The wrinkle:
The White House originally said 12mmt by Dec 31, but last week Bessent suggested deliveries would instead occur by the end of February—raising fresh questions about the terms of this “commitment.”
📊 Fund Activity: Catch-Up CFTC Data
The CFTC released another delayed Commitment of Traders report:
Funds bought 76k corn contracts 🌽
Funds bought 83k soybean contracts 🌱
→ Net long 120k = biggest since April 2018
Funds bought 34k SRW wheat contracts 🌾
The big soybean buying lines up with the late-October trade truce.
CFTC says data will be fully current by late January.
🇧🇷 Brazil Soybean Update
Planting is nearly wrapped up:
91% planted vs 95% last year
Mostly complete in Mato Grosso and other top states
New crop estimates vary widely:
Patria: 171.9mmt
Conab: 177.6mmt
USDA: 175mmt
🌧️ Next 10 days: Most of Brazil sees rainfall—especially the dry south
🇺🇸 Early USDA Acreage Outlook
USDA’s first look at 26/27:
Corn: 95M acres (↓ 3.7%)
Soybeans: 85M acres (↑ 4.8%)
Wheat: 44M acres (↓ 2.9%)
These numbers reflect expectations from USDA’s Nov. 14 WASDE.
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🌽 Grain Export Demand Still 🔥
USDA reported multiple flash corn sales on Thursday:
• 100,800mt to Colombia
• 392,500mt to Mexico
➡️ Both for 2025/26 MY
Corn demand remains fantastic — 🚢 exports + ⚗️ ethanol running near record pace — yet futures just can’t seem to catch a bid.
📦 “Catch-Up” Export Sales Report
Week ending Oct 30:
• Corn: 2mmt — down 📉 11% WoW (Mexico biggest buyer)
• Soybeans: 1.2mmt — down 📉 14% WoW (Unknown biggest buyer; China finally showed with 232kmt)
• Wheat: 505kmt — down slightly (Mexico biggest buyer)
🐖 China’s Pork Prices Keep Sinking
• Pork values now the lowest since 2022
• Prices -18% YTD, expected to fall further
• Weak consumer spending + slow economy
• China’s sow herd only -2.1% YoY so far
➡️ If cuts deepen → less feed demand → soybean implications
⛽ API Flips Again on E15
American Petroleum Institute now supports year-round E15 🤯
✔ Joined biofuel groups urging legislation
✔ Also pushing for limits on EPA refinery exemptions
🔊 Pete Meyer:
“Positive step but not mandatory. Stations need blender pumps + storage — not feasible in big cities.”
🌾 Canada’s Record Wheat Crop
StatsCan final crop report:
• ~40mmt wheat, 🔺11.2% YoY — new all-time record
• Beats 38.5mmt estimates
• Spring wheat the driver: 29.3mmt (+10.3% YoY)
➡️ More pressure on a wheat market already struggling — especially spring wheat vs winter wheat
🌦 Drought Monitor Update
Corn Belt: mostly steady
✔ Improvements: N. Illinois & SE Wisconsin
❌ Slight worsening: Michigan
High Plains: little change
✔ Only modest improvement in NE Kansas
US Areas in Drought:
• Corn — 30%
• Soybeans — 30%
• Winter Wheat — 35%
• Spring Wheat — 16%
• Cattle — 25%
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🚜 China Soybeans: Goalposts Moving?
China is expected to fulfill its US soybean purchase agreement… eventually. On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China will meet its commitment to buy 12mmt of US soybeans. The White House originally said by year-end, but Bessent now expects by the end of February. To date, China has purchased just 2.2mmt (~19%) of the required volume. 🤨
The White House "Fact" Sheet stated—verbatim—that China will buy at least 12mmt during the last two months of 2025… plus 25mmt annually through 2028. Now the timeline has magically shifted. Sure sounds like some goalpost-dragging.
📦 Chinese shipments of US soybeans are set to ramp up in the coming weeks:
At least 6 vessels scheduled to load from the Gulf
1 vessel already en route—the first since May
Still well behind typical purchase pace
Low Chinese demand = pressure on soybean prices
US sorghum shipments to China have also resumed for the first time since March.
🌽 Iowa Eyeing More Corn in 2026
Iowa State University’s Dennis Johnson says farmers in north-central Iowa are leaning toward more corn acres next year. Corn has been the consistent moneymaker—despite some southern rust this year—and early 2026 budgets still favor corn over beans.
He advised not to go overboard on fungicides next season… Just scout the crop.
⛽️ Ethanol Production = New Record
US output hit 1.13mil bpd last week—an all-time high.
Stocks rose to 22.51mil barrels.
But… ethanol margins have softened:
Roughly –$0.05 to +$0.25/gal depending on the plant
⚓ Black Sea Insurance Costs Explode
Ukrainian attacks on Russian-affiliated vessels have caused insurance rates to triple for ships calling at Russian ports. Escalating risks raise concerns about retaliation:
➡️ Potential Russian strikes on Ukrainian port infrastructure
➡️ Ongoing pressure on global grain trade dynamics
📉 US Jobs Market Cooldown Continues
ADP reports 32,000 private-sector job losses in November vs. +47,000 in October. Hiring has slowed sharply under tariff fallout + tighter immigration.
Monthly job growth:
62k (Jul–Sep 2025) vs 186k (same period 2024) 😬
Markets see an 87% chance of a quarter-point Fed rate cut on Dec. 10.
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🇷🇺 Black Sea Threats Push Grain Higher
Tensions escalated again this week after Russia warned it may retaliate for a recent surge in Ukrainian attacks on its tanker fleet. Vladimir Putin said Moscow could strike vessels belonging to countries that support Ukraine and even cut off Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea if attacks continue. Several Russian-affiliated tankers have already been targeted over the last week — a notable escalation from prior sporadic incidents.
Corn and wheat futures responded quickly: Mar26 corn +5¢ to $4.50, and March Chicago wheat +6¢ to $5.41. Russia and Ukraine together are expected to account for 27% of global wheat exports and 13.5% of global corn exports this year. 🌎
🌱 China Soybean Commitment: Can They Still Do It?
Some traders still believe China can meet its 12mmt US soybean purchase pledge, but they’ve got a long way to go. State-owned importers — especially Cofco — are expected to ramp up buying in the next few weeks, including shipments destined for state reserves.
The problem? US beans are still priced at a premium versus South America, leaving little commercial incentive. To date, China has purchased only 2.25mmt — just 18.8% of its commitment. To hit the target, they’d need to buy more than 2mmt per week for the rest of the year.
There are 20 business days left in 2025, meaning China must average 487,450mt per business day to reach the White House goal. Most analysts view recent buying as short-term political optics, not a durable shift toward US supplies.
🚢 More US Soybeans Heading to China
Reuters reports at least six bulk vessels will load soybeans at Gulf Coast terminals in the next two weeks. Based on USDA flash data, China has “officially” purchased 2.2mmt so far this marketing year—but the true number could be higher due to USDA reporting delays.
These shipments likely reflect previously reported sales. China taking a small batch of US soybeans is not new information and not bullish.
💵 Bridge Payment Coming Next Week
Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins confirmed Tuesday that a farm “bridge payment” will be announced next week. The program is designed to provide short-term relief while longer-term trade and assistance plans are finalized.
President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” expanded farm support, but many groups argue more is needed heading into next season. Even before the bridge payment, the US is on track to spend $40+ billion on farm payments this year—the second-highest total since 1933. 🌾
📈 Farmer Sentiment Surges
US farmer sentiment jumped sharply in November. Purdue/CME’s Ag Economy Barometer rose to 139, the highest since June, with much of the increase driven by stronger future expectations. The Future Expectations Index climbed 15 points to 144.
This was the first survey after the newly negotiated US–China trade truce, likely boosting optimism.
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Welcome back! Lawmakers are zeroed in on trade issues and a potential new farm-aid package as the year winds down. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins is expected to release details this week—but many in D.C. and across farm country say it won’t be nearly enough. The American Farm Bureau notes that the rumored $12B is a fraction of the $50B+ in losses farmers have endured over the last three years. Deputy USDA Secretary Stephen Vaden added that recently negotiated trade deals could impact how much aid is ultimately distributed.
🚢 Export Inspections: Soybeans Still Dragging
Soybeans: 920,194mt (34M bu) — +14% vs last week, but -56% vs last year 😬
Corn: 1.4mmt (56M bu)—-16% vs last week, +50% vs last year 🚀
Wheat: 384,881mt (14M bu) — -20% vs last week, +29% vs last year
A small amount of sorghum headed to China. Expect more China-bound soybeans in the coming weeks.
🇧🇷 Brazil Planting Update
Private group AgRural pegs soybean planting at 89%, slightly behind last year’s 91%. Moisture issues exist in pockets, but it’s still too early to raise yield concerns.
Patria Agronegocios: 171.9mmt (+0.2%)
Conab: 177.6mmt
USDA: 175.0mmt
📈 Catch-Up Export Sales (Week Ending Oct 23)
Soybeans: 1.4mmt (53M bu), +31%, Mexico top buyer
Corn: 1.8mmt (71M bu), -36%, Mexico top buyer
Wheat: 499,800mt (18M bu), +46%, unknown destinations top buyer
🇦🇺 Massive Australian Wheat Crop Incoming
Australia’s Department of Agriculture raised its forecast to 35.6 mmt—up 5.3% and potentially the third-largest crop on record.
Timely spring rains + mild temps = big yields.
This adds to global supply pressure, with Chicago wheat recently hitting 5-year lows.
USDA expects Australia to account for 4.3% of global output this year.
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Welcome back! Today we’re breaking down export sales, flash deals, China/Brazil soybean news, ethanol margins, and record-setting Black Friday spending. 👇
📦 Weekly Export Sales (Backdated Again…)
Corn:
USDA reported 2.8mmt (111 mil bu) in net corn sales for the week ending Oct 16—well above expectations and sharply higher than last week. Mexico was the top buyer.
I continue to believe that in real time, US corn sales are running at a record pace, despite the outdated data.
Soybeans:
Net sales hit 1.1mmt (41 mil bu), up 41% from last week. The Netherlands was the top buyer.
Wheat:
Came in at 341,300mt (13 mil bu), below expectations and down 44% from last week. Colombia was the top buyer.
🚨 Flash Sales Update
USDA reported multiple flashes Friday:
• 312,000mt (11 mil bu) of soybeans sold to China for 25/26
• 273,988mt (11 mil bu) of corn sold to Unknown for 25/26
Through Flash Sales alone, China has achieved 18.1% of the 12mmt pre-January purchase goal.
There are 22 business days left in 2025.
China must average 443,136mt/day to hit the White House target.
🇨🇳🇧🇷 China Suspends Some Brazilian Soybean Imports
China halted shipments from five Brazilian export facilities after detecting pesticide-treated wheat contamination. Impacted companies include Cargill, CHS, and Louis Dreyfus.
Exports from unaffected plants will continue — China still has 2,000+ approved Brazilian facilities. Similar issues earlier this year were resolved quickly.
🍺 Ethanol Production & Margins
• Production rose to 1.11 mil bpd last week (+2% WoW).
• Stocks fell to 21.97 mil barrels (-1.5% WoW).
• Both metrics are slightly stronger vs. the same week last year.
Margins remain solid:
Reuters shows Corn Belt ethanol plants earning +10¢ to +40¢ per gallon depending on local corn, DDGs, and inputs.
🛍️ Black Friday: Record Online Spending
US consumers spent $11.8B online on Black Friday (+9.1% YoY) and another $6.4B on Thanksgiving Day.
In-store traffic fell 3.6% YoY.
Despite tariff uncertainty and a softening job market, analysts still expect holiday spending to top $1T this season—with more shoppers leaning on buy-now-pay-later options.
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🇨🇳 China Steps Up US Soybean Buying
China made major purchases of US soybeans this week. Since Tuesday, Chinese buyers have booked an estimated 10–15 cargoes — roughly $300 million in value. These sales followed President Trump’s call with Xi Jinping, during which Trump urged China to accelerate purchases, and Xi largely agreed. All cargoes are slated for January shipment out of Gulf Coast and PNW ports.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday that US soybean exports to China are “right on schedule.” The Trump administration claims China has agreed to buy 12mmt before Jan 1 and 25mmt annually for the next three years. China has not officially confirmed these numbers, but Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins expects confirmation in the coming weeks.
🕊️ Ukraine–Russia Peace Framework?
Multiple sources say Ukraine is ready to move forward with a US-backed peace framework. The original US proposal — once 28 points and seen as favorable to Russia — has been cut to 19 revised points after input from both sides.
Russia has not yet confirmed its position, and major terms are still unresolved. US officials will continue negotiations this week.
📊 CFTC Fund Positioning Update
CFTC released another delayed Commitment of Traders report:
Funds sold 54k corn contracts → net short grows to 188k, the largest since early July.
Funds sold 1k soybean and 15k SRW wheat contracts.
SRW wheat net short of 111k is the biggest since mid-May.
Private estimates for yesterday’s close:
Corn: –110k
Soybeans: +120k
SRW Wheat: –65k
CFTC expects to be fully current by late January. Charts below.
🚢 USDA Export Sales (Catch-Up Report)
For the week ending Oct 9:
Corn: 1.3 mmt—down 41%
Soybeans: 785k mt—down 15%
Wheat: 613.9k mt—down 31%
Mexico was the top buyer across all three.
🎰 Online Betting Risks Are Growing
Bank of America warns that online betting and prediction markets are driving higher debt loads, especially among low-income consumers and young men.
Research shows:
Lower credit scores
Higher bankruptcy rates
More debt going to collections
Prediction markets have surged, letting people bet “yes/no” on everything from elections to sports.
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🇨🇳🚢 China to Resume Shipments of US Soybeans & Sorghum
Two Chinese vessels are scheduled to arrive at grain terminals near New Orleans this week to load US soybeans—the first such shipments since May. Another vessel is expected in Corpus Christi next week to load sorghum, marking the first sorghum shipment to China since March.
These movements follow increased Chinese purchasing after the late-October trade truce in South Korea. According to the Trump administration, China has agreed to buy 12mmt of US soybeans by January and 25mmt annually over the next three years. China has not yet officially confirmed the deal.
🌱📈 Fresh US Soybean Sales to China
China resumed buying on Monday. USDA reported:
• 123,000mt (5 million bushels) sold for 2025/26
• 1.92mmt (71 million bushels) purchased so far in November
With 25 business days left in 2025, China must average 402,440mt/day to hit the targeted 12mmt.
🚢🌎 US Export Inspections (Week Ending Nov 20)
Soybeans:
• 799,042mt (29mb)
• Down 34% vs. last week, down 62% vs. last year—still disappointing
Corn:
• 1.6mmt (64mb)
• Down 21% from last week but up 62% vs. last year
Wheat:
• 474,530mt (17mb)
• Up 92% vs. last week and up 30% vs. last year
📞🇺🇸 Trump–Xi Phone Call
President Trump says the call covered Chinese purchases of US soybeans and other ag goods. He described the trade truce as a “great deal” for US farmers. China’s Foreign Affairs Ministry said all elements of the agreement are being implemented.
The two leaders agreed to meet in person—first in April in Beijing, then later in the US.
💵🚜 More Farmer Aid Expected
USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins says details of the long-discussed farmer assistance package will be released within the next two weeks. The Farm Bureau welcomed the update, calling aid “urgently needed.”
Rollins also indicated that China will formally confirm its soybean purchase commitments within the next few weeks.
🌧️🌽 China Corn Market: Prices Hit 2-Month High
Chinese corn futures have rallied due to:
• Excessive rains damaging crops in major northern regions
• Slow farmer selling
• Government import restrictions keeping foreign corn out
Through October, China’s corn imports totaled less than 1mmt, down 93% from last year.
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🌽 Record Wisconsin Corn Crop + Storage Crunch
Wisconsin is harvesting a record corn crop, with many farmers reporting yields 20–30 bushels above previous highs.
Grain elevators across the state are full or overflowing, forcing coops to pile millions of bushels outside on the ground.
United Cooperative near Appleton is moving grain out by rail as fast as possible.
Some farmers are turning to grain bagging because space is so tight.
Slow soybean sales are tying up even more storage as producers wait for better prices.
USDA pegs Wisconsin’s 2025 state yield at a record 183 bpa.
Other states — Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, South Dakota — also posted record yields.
Western Corn Belt basis is weak, while basis in many eastern areas is stronger than normal.
🇧🇷 Brazil Soybean Planting Update
Consulting group Patria Agronegocios estimates Brazil’s soybean planting at 80% complete vs 83% last year.
Still ahead of the 75% five-year average.
Irregular rainfall has caused localized delays and could affect yields.
Mato Grosso is nearly done — about 98% planted.
🐂 Cattle on Feed Report — Bullish Across the Board
As of Nov 1: 11.7M head, down 2% YoY — in line with expectations.
Placements: 2.04M head → down 10% and the lowest since 1996 for October.
Marketings: 1.7M head → down 8%, matching expectations.
Market should view this as bullish, though volatility could mute reaction.
Heifer retention still shows no major herd rebuilding.
🏭 Tyson Closing Major Nebraska Beef Plant
Tyson will close one of its largest beef plants in Lexington, NE — processing 5,000 head/day.
Roughly 3,000 jobs impacted.
Amarillo, TX plant will shrink from two shifts to one, affecting ~1,700 workers.
Changes take effect by end of January.
Tyson reported $2B higher cattle costs in FY2025 vs prior year.
💵 Macroeconomy: Shutdown Cost + Bessent Outlook
The government shutdown cost the US economy $11B.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent remains optimistic about 2026 growth.
Says easing interest rates and tax cuts will help, and doesn’t see the broader economy at risk.
Shutdown expected to cut Q4 growth in half → now 1.5%–2% expected.
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🌦️ Weather & Drought Update
Most of the Corn Belt stayed dry last week. Drought intensified in eastern IA/IL, northern MN, and big portions of WI.
• Illinois: 74% in drought, 4.5% extreme
• High Plains: Warm & dry; worsening in eastern NE & southern OK
US Areas in Drought: Corn 32% • Soybeans 33% • Winter Wheat 41% • Spring Wheat 18% • Cattle 33%
💰 Farm Financial Stress
Three straight years of falling profits have pushed the Midwest into a financial crunch.
• Iowa bankruptcies doubled vs last year
• U.S. bankruptcies up nearly 60% YoY, mostly Chapter 12
• Only 48% of Corn Belt farmers expected to turn a profit in 2026 (down from 52%)
Some analysts now compare this downturn to the 1980s Farm Crisis.
🚢 China Purchases & Export Sales
Flash Sales Thursday:
• 462,000mt soybeans → China (25/26 MY)
• 132,000mt white wheat → China (25/26 MY)
• China has now bought 1.8mmt US soybeans since Nov 1 for current MY
Brazil & Argentina Shipments:
• Brazil → 7.1mmt to China in Oct (+29% YoY)
• Argentina → 1.6mmt (+15% YoY)
• U.S. → 0mt
China imported a record 9.5mmt of soybeans in October but has recently ramped up US buying, covering ~15% of its truce commitment.
📦 Export Sales Snapshot
Corn: 2.3mmt — up 62%, Japan biggest buyer
Soybeans: 919,400mt — up 6%, Egypt biggest buyer
Wheat: 887,900mt — up 181%, Mexico biggest buyer
🐂 Cattle Markets
Cattle futures sold off sharply again Thursday on fund pressure and lower cash. Fundamentals remain strong, but technicals continue to dominate.
• Trump is pushing lower beef prices
• Today’s Cattle on Feed expected to be bullish
• Trump removes 40% tariff on Brazilian beef—likely increases imports & pressures prices further
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🇺🇸 Farm Aid Update
The Trump administration is expected to announce additional farmer assistance in early December. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said the aid is likely coming during the first week of the month. Details remain limited. The package was originally planned for this fall but delayed by the government shutdown.
Farmers continue to face pressure from inflation, policy uncertainty, and trade-related disruptions. Even with the uptick in Chinese soybean buying, the administration believes more support is necessary heading into next planting season.
🇨🇳 China Soybean Purchases
USDA reported another flash sale to China on Wednesday:
• 330,000mt (≈12 million bushels) sold
• China has now purchased 1.4mmt (≈50 million bushels) in recent weeks
There are 29 business days left before Jan 1. To hit the 12mmt target the White House outlined, China would need to average 367,103mt (13.5 million bu) per day.
Rumors point to 4–5 additional cargoes sold yesterday that may show up in today’s reporting.
🌱 2026 Acreage Outlook (S&P Global)
S&P Global’s monthly survey points to:
• Corn acres down to 95 million (–3.8%)
• Soybean acres up to 84.5 million (+4%)
• All wheat acres down to 44 million (–2.9%)
🛢️ Biofuel Credit Cuts May Be Delayed
The administration is weighing a 1–2 year delay in cutting biofuel import credits.
• Cuts were scheduled for Jan 1
• Would have reduced RIN credits earned by imported biofuels/inputs
• Refiners warn cuts could tighten fuel supplies and raise prices
EPA is reviewing comments and will finalize rules in the coming months.
Soybean oil futures dropped more than 2% on the headline.
🍺 Ethanol Production & Margins
US ethanol output increased to 1.09M barrels/day last week (+1.5% WoW).
Stocks climbed to 22.31M barrels, slightly higher on the week and year.
Margins across the Corn Belt remain positive, ranging from +5 to +35 cents depending on plant and input mix.
📉 CFTC Commitment of Traders
CFTC released its first COT data since reopening:
• Corn: Funds sold 32k → net short now 129k
• Soybeans: Funds sold 7k → net short now 32k
• SRW Wheat: Funds bought 1k → net short trimmed to 96k
CFTC expects to be fully current again by late January.
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🤝 Trade Deals & Farmer Aid Outlook
Recent trade agreements may impact the likelihood of additional farmer assistance. USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden says market conditions have shifted since aid discussions began earlier this fall. New trade deals with China, Pakistan, and Japan have led to significant purchase commitments for U.S. commodities.
Back in early October, the Trump administration was considering at least $10B in farmer aid, modeled after the previous Market Facilitation Program, which paid out $23B during the China trade war.
Vaden quote:
“The entire goal of any program should be to provide a bridge to 2026 and to reflect current market conditions, which thankfully have improved. Soybean prices are at 15-month highs… but we will need to take that new data into account as we measure the amount of aid that we can and should provide.”
🚢 Big USDA Flash Sale to China
USDA reported a 792,000mt (29M bushel) soybean sale to China on Tuesday. Combined with last week’s 232,000mt flash sale, China has now purchased roughly 1mmt (38M bushels) of U.S. soybeans in recent weeks.
Yesterday’s announcement confirmed Monday’s rumored sales — and in classic “buy the rumor, sell the fact” fashion, the market peaked right before confirmation. More flash sales later this week wouldn’t be surprising.
📊 CFTC Data Returns Today
The CFTC will resume publishing Commitment of Traders reports today for the first time since the late-September report. The shutdown limited data availability and discouraged large speculative positioning.
This afternoon’s release will cover data originally scheduled for October 3.
Private estimates heading into yesterday’s close:
Funds short 50k corn
Long 150k soybeans
Short 60k SRW wheat
CFTC won’t be fully caught up until late January—a frustrating delay in an era where this should take a week.
🚜 Crop Progress Update
USDA released its first crop progress report since reopening:
Corn: 91% harvested (vs. 98% last year, 94% avg.). Nebraska only 74% vs 97% last year.
Soybeans: 95% harvested (vs. 98% last year, 96% avg.). LA, MN, and SD are finished.
Winter Wheat: 45% good/excellent (49% last year, slightly above 44% avg).
🌧️ Argentina Flooding Delays Planting
Flooding is delaying corn and soybean planting in parts of Argentina. Roughly 1.5M hectares (3.7M acres) are at high risk of becoming unusable after months of heavy rain. Poor drainage and rural road conditions have worsened the situation.
Argentina is the world’s top soybean meal & oil exporter and the #3 corn exporter. USDA expects 24M hectares (59.3M acres) of combined corn/soy area this season—meaning about 6% of total area is at risk.
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🌤️ Markets: Soybeans Surge on China Buying
Soybean futures ripped higher Monday on renewed optimism that China is finally buying US product. Jan26 soybeans jumped about 33 cents to $11.57, the best trade since June 2024.
Reuters reported that COFCO bought at least 14 cargoes (~31 mil bu), while Bloomberg pegged the total closer to 20 cargoes. One soybean cargo = ~60,000mt or ~2.2 mil bu.
China’s recent buying (including last week’s 232kmt flash sale) suggests total purchases of 1.0–1.4mmt in recent weeks — only 8–12% of the 12mmt the White House says China will buy before Jan 1. The rally and firmer spreads are being driven entirely by this Chinese activity.
But… higher US futures are once again pricing us above Brazil, hurting competitiveness.
📊 USDA Flash Sale Corrections
USDA revised several daily sales from the shutdown backlog:
The early-November soybean sale to China was cut from 232kmt to 132kmt after a 100kmt cancellation.
Total Chinese soybean purchases reported via flash sales now total 232kmt over two separate announcements.
USDA also removed a previously reported corn sale to Japan.
🏭 NOPA Crush Sets a Record
NOPA members processed 227.65 million bushels in October — a new all-time high.
+15% from September
+14% from October 2024
Well above the trade estimate of 209.52 million
Soybean oil stocks hit 1.31 billion lbs—still the third-lowest October on record, but:
+5% vs September
+22% vs last year
Above expectations at 1.26 billion
🚢 Export Inspections Mixed
Soybeans:
USDA reported 1.2mmt (~43 mil bu) inspected last week —
• +4.6% on the week
• –48% vs last year
• Zero inspected for China
Corn:
2.1mmt (~81 mil bu) —
• +38% on the week
• +135% vs last year
• Easily beat expectations
Wheat:
246,533mt (~9 mil bu) —
• –15% on the week
• +25% vs last year
• Missed expectations
🐄 US Dairy Herd Hits 25-Year High
The US dairy herd reached 9.54 million head in Q3 — the largest since 1993. Producers are keeping more cows to expand beef-on-dairy output at a time when the US beef cow herd is at its smallest level in 70+ years.
This trend won’t fully fix the cattle shortage, but it could drive the first increase in the US calf crop since 2018 and help stabilize supply during future cattle-cycle lows.
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🇨🇳 China Falls Far Short of US Soybean Targets
Concerns are growing over China’s commitment to purchase US soybeans. USDA data released Friday showed that China has purchased just 332,000mt of US soybeans since the recently negotiated trade truce—less than 3% of the 12mmt China was reported to have agreed to buy by January. Officials also suggested China would purchase 25mmt annually for the next three years, but there’s little evidence of follow-through.
With 31 business days left in 2025, China would need to average 376,387mt per day (about 14 million bushels daily) to meet the target. For now, China has little incentive to buy US soybeans because Brazil and South America are offering cheaper, abundant supplies. Even so, President Trump has said Chinese officials assured him that “much larger” purchases are coming.
📊 USDA Report: Bearish Corn, Softer Soybean Outlook
Friday’s USDA report carried a bearish tone for corn. USDA cut the national corn yield to 186 bpa and production to 16.75B bu, but trade expected even lower. The average pre-report guess was 184 bpa and 16.56B bu.
Soybean yield was trimmed to 53 bpa, with production at 4.25B bu, both below expectations. Despite the new US–China trade truce, USDA reduced its soybean export forecast to 1.6B bu. The agency also noted that several normal data sources were unavailable, raising concerns about data quality and reliability.
🧪 Tariffs Removed on Fertilizer Products
President Trump signed an executive order Friday removing reciprocal tariffs on several agricultural inputs, including DAP, MAP, and potash. The American Soybean Association welcomed the move, expecting lower fertilizer costs for farmers. Critics counter that the rollback effectively admits that prior tariffs raised consumer and producer costs. The administration maintains the tariffs improved America’s economic leverage.
🇧🇷 Brazil Weather: Spotty Rain, Slow Soybean Planting
Inconsistent rainfall continues to slow Brazil’s planting pace. AgRural estimated soybean planting at 71%, behind 80% during the same week last year. CropProphet data shows key Brazilian soybean areas received 82% of normal rainfall over the past two weeks, with Mato Grosso at 77%.
🥩 Tariff Changes for Food Products
Trump also reduced tariffs on certain food products not grown in the US, including beef. The order removes the 10% tariff imposed on Brazilian beef last April but leaves the existing 40% tariff (from July) and 26.4% over-quota tariff in place—meaning Brazilian beef still faces a combined 66.4% rate. The policy shift has introduced uncertainty into cattle markets and weighed on prices.
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🌽 Corn Futures Rally Ahead of Key USDA Reports
Corn futures pushed higher on Thursday, with the Dec25 contract closing near $4.42, the best level in nearly five months. Traders are bracing for a sharp cut to national corn yield and production, with estimates ranging from 181.7 to 186 bpa — a wide spread tied to the 43-day government shutdown that limited USDA data flow. USDA will also publish all flash sales that occurred during the shutdown.
📝 USDA Crop Production & WASDE Today (11am CST)
Analysts expect a substantial downward revision to national corn yield and overall production. Even with reductions, the crop is still projected to be record large.
• Soybean yield & production expected to see modest declines
• US ending stocks for corn, soybeans & wheat expected to see slight increases
• Minimal changes expected for global ending stocks
• October reports were skipped due to the shutdown
🚢 US Export Sales Return After Shutdown
For the week ending Sept 25:
• Corn: 1.4 mmt—down from last week; Mexico top buyer
• Soybeans: 870,500 mt—up 20%; Netherlands top buyer
• Wheat: 315,900 mt—near low end of expectations; Nigeria top buyer
⛽ US Ethanol Output Falls; Margins Still Strong
Weekly ethanol production slipped to 1.08 mil bpd (-4.3% w/w). Stocks fell to 22.22 mil barrels. Compared to last year:
• Output: -2.7%
• Stocks: +1%
Margins remain solid, ranging from +10 to +30 cents across the Corn Belt based on Reuters’ spot prices for corn, DDGs, inputs, etc.
🇧🇷 Conab: Minor Changes to Brazil Corn & Soybean Outlook
Soybeans:
• Production: 177.6 mmt (record; +3.6% vs last year)
• Exports: 112.1 mmt (+5.1% y/y), reflecting expectations of sluggish US exports
Corn:
• Production: 138.8 mmt (-1.6% y/y)
• Exports: 46.5 mmt (+16% y/y)
🌧️ US Drought Monitor Update
Rainfall was mixed across the Corn Belt last week.
• Improving: NE Illinois, NW Indiana
• Worsening: East-central Illinois, SW Wisconsin
• High Plains: Mostly steady; slight deterioration in eastern Nebraska & parts of Oklahoma
US Areas in Drought:
🌽 Corn—29%
🫘 Soybeans—31%
🌾 Winter Wheat — 39%
🌾 Spring Wheat—17%
🐄 Cattle — 28%
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🌱 Grain Markets This Morning
Soybean futures posted fresh highs overnight. Jan26 pushed above $11.40 for the first time this year, marking the best continuation trade since July 2024. Corn and wheat followed higher — Dec25 corn added a few cents to trade near $4.35 as traders brace for a potential USDA yield cut on Friday. Dryness and disease across parts of the Corn Belt remain key storylines.
🇨🇳 US–China Truce & 2025 Soybean Acres
Market economist Ed Usset (University of Minnesota) says the trade truce is supportive for soybean demand, basis, and planted acreage next year. Soybean futures are at one-year highs, crush demand keeps climbing, and he compared today’s soybean story to early ethanol-era corn demand 15–20 years ago.
Early farm budgets still lean toward corn, but the Dec26 corn / Nov26 soybean ratio has softened with recent rallies in both markets.
🚫 China Has Stopped Buying US Soybeans (Again)
Chinese soybean purchases have paused following a brief round of post-truce buying. There’s growing doubt they’ll meet:
12mmt pledge before Jan 1
25mmt annually over the next three years
China never officially confirmed the commitments, and many analysts see them as more diplomatic than binding. Brazilian soybeans remain cheaper, China’s stocks are comfortable, and US beans still face a 13% tariff.
With the 43-day government shutdown now over, traders will look to tomorrow’s USDA export sales to reveal what (if anything) China bought in recent weeks.
🌾 Friday’s USDA Crop Production & WASDE (11:00am CST)
Expectations heading into Friday:
Corn: Large downward yield/production revision expected, though still record-large crop
Soybeans: Slight cuts to yield and production
Ending stocks: Modestly higher for corn/soy/wheat
Global stocks: Minimal changes expected
USDA skipped the October reports due to the shutdown, so this release covers two months of revisions.
🍌 Tariff Talk: Food Imports on the Table
The Trump administration is considering removing tariffs on food items not produced domestically — coffee, bananas, etc. The discussion comes after GOP losses in recent state/local elections where cost-of-living concerns were front and center.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says household costs should ease by the first half of 2026. He also reiterated that no final decision has been made on Trump’s proposed $2,000 tariff dividend.
Many of the affected products are sourced from Brazil, and some traders think the administration may be preparing to drop current 50% tariffs on certain Brazilian imports. Beef imports are being discussed quietly given Trump's recent clash with high beef prices.
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🇨🇳 China Chooses Brazil
China’s state-owned COFCO has signed a $10B deal to purchase 20mmt of Brazilian soybeans, soybean oil, palm oil, and other ag products. The agreement includes contracts with ADM, Bunge, Cargill, and Louis Dreyfus.
Despite the recent US–China trade truce, Beijing has yet to make major US soybean purchases—and the 13% tariff on US soybeans remains in place. While much of this business likely would’ve happened anyway, it’s a bad look for the U.S. considering the White House’s touted 12mmt purchase floor due by January 1st.
🇹🇭 Thailand Boosts U.S. Corn Imports
As part of its U.S. trade concessions, Thailand will raise its annual feed-corn import quota from 54,700mt to 1mmt — and eliminate the 20% in-quota tariff.
Imports will be allowed Feb 1–June 30 to protect domestic producers. Thailand’s total feed demand is projected at 21.8mmt, with about 60% imported, mainly corn, soybean meal, and wheat. The country isn’t a top-10 global importer, but it’s a notable shift in regional demand.
🏛️ Shutdown Nears an End
The Senate passed a temporary funding bill Monday, and the House votes today. The measure would fund most agencies through January, with USDA funded through September 30.
All unpaid federal workers will be compensated, and no layoffs are expected through January. Still, it may take weeks for USDA reporting and air travel to normalize.
Traders are watching for the return of two key reports:
1️⃣ CFTC Commitment of Traders – what are “the funds” doing?
2️⃣ USDA Export Sales – has China actually bought anything?
🌽 WASDE & Crop Production Ahead
The USDA’s November reports drop Friday at 11:00am CST. Markets expect:
A downward revision to U.S. corn yield and production
Slight declines for soybeans
Marginal increases to U.S. ending stocks
Because of the shutdown, October’s reports were skipped—so this release carries extra weight.
📈 Grain Market Recap
Futures were mixed Tuesday—corn and Chicago wheat gained modestly, while soybeans slipped.
Traders continue to assess the pace of a government reopening and China’s lack of buying activity despite the trade truce. Beijing seems to have little incentive to meet even short-term U.S. purchase goals.
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🇺🇸 Iowa Farmland Controversy
Iowa Auditor and gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand is backing a plan to raise taxes on out-of-state property owners — including farmland. Sand argues it would help make land more affordable for Iowans and preserve state culture.
👉 Iowa State University’s 2022 data shows half of Iowa farmland is owned by non-farmers, and a quarter of 2022 land sales were investment-driven. Two of the top 10 landowners in Iowa are based out of state.
🌱 Market Update
Soybeans led Monday’s rally—Jan 26, up 13¢ to $11.30/bu—as optimism grows that the government shutdown may end and exports to China may pick up.
Corn gained nearly 3¢ to $4.30, and Chicago wheat rose 8¢ to $5.36.
📊 Traders are eyeing possible yield cuts in Friday’s USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports.
🚢 Export Inspections
USDA data showed 1.1mmt of soybeans inspected for export last week—up 11% from the prior week but down 54% from last year.
🇨🇳 China was absent from the market.
Corn: 1.4mmt (strong vs. last year)
Wheat: 290kmt (weaker week-over-week)
🥩 Tyson Foods Outlook
Tyson Foods expects 2026 profits to hold steady despite ongoing beef segment losses from high cattle prices.
🐄 The US cow herd is at a 70-year low, and rebuilding may take until 2028.
🍗 Stronger demand for chicken and processed products is helping offset beef weakness.
President Trump recently urged the DOJ to investigate major packers — including Tyson — over alleged price manipulation.
🇧🇷 Brazil Weather & Planting
Brazil’s soybean planting reached 61%, up 14% from the week prior but behind last year’s 67%.
🌦️ Irregular rainfall continues to slow progress.
Corn planting is 72% complete, in line with 2024.
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✅ Today’s Focus: Trump’s $2,000 Tariff Dividend & Inflation Risks
📊 💰 Economic & Policy Updates
President Trump announced plans for a $2,000 “tariff dividend” to most Americans. He said the payout would exclude high-income earners and be funded by tariff revenue, which he also pledged to use toward the $37 trillion national debt. Any such payments would likely need congressional approval.
Scott Bessent later clarified that support could come in other forms, such as tax cuts. Meanwhile, Trump’s team is pushing for a 50-year fixed-rate mortgage program, both moves viewed as potentially inflationary.
🥩 🐄 Meatpackers Under Fire
Trump accused major meatpacking companies of manipulating beef prices and urged the Justice Department to investigate. Beef prices remain high as the US cattle herd sits at its smallest size in 74 years. The Meat Institute defended the industry, citing transparency and oversight, while USDA data shows packers facing steep losses expected to continue into next year.
🍔 🏢 Texas Roadhouse Outlook
Texas Roadhouse expects commodity costs to rise 6% in 2025 and 7% in 2026, driven by higher beef prices. Commodity inflation reached 7.9% in Q3, but the chain offset pressure through 1.7% menu price hikes and strong customer traffic. Same-store sales rose 6.1%, beating forecasts.
🌏 🇨🇳 China Trade Developments
China will reinstate soybean import licenses for CHS, Louis Dreyfus, and EGT on Nov. 10, easing tensions after a recent Trump–Xi trade truce. The move follows tariff cuts and limited US grain purchases. Still, traders remain cautious about China’s follow-through on purchase commitments.
🌾 📈 Fund Position Estimates
Private data (amid the government shutdown) suggest:
Corn: net short 40–60K
Soybeans: net long 100–150K
SRW Wheat: net short 50–80K
Funds were net buyers of 7K soybean contracts last week and ended the week flat in corn. The Senate moved closer to ending the shutdown after a bipartisan vote on Sunday.
⛽ 🧪 Biofuel Waiver Rulings
The EPA granted biofuel blending exemptions to HF Sinclair and Phillips 66, while Chevron was denied. The waivers apply to blending obligations from 2021–2023 and were issued for economic hardship. Biofuel producers warned the move could undermine renewable fuel demand and add market uncertainty.
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🌱 Welcome back to Grain Markets & Other Stuff!
Today’s update dives into a sharp selloff in soybeans, trade developments with China, and a closer look at shifting global dynamics affecting U.S. ag markets.
🌾 Soybean Market Drop
Soybean futures plunged Thursday, with the Jan26 contract down nearly 27¢ to around $11.08/bu. The slide followed China’s limited U.S. soybean purchases, despite last week’s trade truce. China suspended certain retaliatory tariffs but kept a 13% duty on soybeans. Wheat also fell sharply, while corn saw modest losses. 📉
🇨🇳 China Trade Update
COFCO hosted a soybean procurement signing ceremony in Shanghai — but details remain vague. The U.S. claims China agreed to buy 12 MMT by January and 25 MMT annually thereafter, yet China hasn’t confirmed those volumes. Traders are growing skeptical after repeated “confirmations” without firm numbers.
⚖️ SCOTUS & Trump’s Tariffs
The Supreme Court is reviewing whether President Trump’s sweeping tariffs are constitutional. Justices questioned if the IEEPA law gives authority to impose tariffs — it doesn’t mention “tariff” or “duty.” A ruling against Trump could partially invalidate some tariffs, though he may pivot to the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 or the Trade Act of 1974.
🇦🇷 Argentina Crop Progress
Soybean planting in Argentina is off to a strong start 🌦️. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports 4.4% planted (of 43 M acres) and projects a 48.5 MMT crop. Corn planting is 36% complete, with 58 MMT expected. Late frosts caused minor damage in southern areas.
🌧️ US Drought Monitor
Recent rains improved drought in KY, OH, and parts of IL, IN, and MO. Conditions worsened slightly in MN and IA.
Corn: 30%
Soybeans: 32%
Winter Wheat: 38%
Spring Wheat: 17%
Cattle: 26%
💼 Jobs & Markets
Private data showed 153,074 job cuts last month—triple Oct 2024’s figure. Tech and warehousing led the declines. The Nasdaq fell 1.9%, the S&P 500 –1.1%, and the Dow –0.8%. The 10-year yield slipped to 4.09%, and traders now price a greater 60% chance of a December Fed rate cut.
(⚠️ Note: These job numbers are private data; BLS data remains paused amid the government shutdown.)
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Welcome back! Here’s what’s moving the markets this week 👇
🌾 China Steps Back Into U.S. Grain Markets
Reuters reports China purchased two cargoes of U.S. wheat — one soft white and one spring wheat — plus at least one shipment of U.S. sorghum. Futures for SRW and HRW hit fresh 3-month highs on the news.
💼 Tariff Rollbacks from Beijing
China’s Finance Ministry says retaliatory tariffs (up to 15%) on U.S. ag products will be lifted November 10.
That includes corn, wheat, and sorghum, though U.S. soybeans still face a 13% import tax, keeping them pricier than Brazilian supplies. Traders say major Chinese buyers are showing new interest in U.S. wheat.
🌽 Corn Harvest & Yields
Corn yields are mixed across the Corn Belt—strong in Minnesota and South Dakota but lower in Illinois and Iowa.
Wyffels Hybrids averaged 241 bpa across 724 plots (vs. 247 last year).
Many still expect near-record crops, but yield chatter is closer to 178–179 bpa, well below USDA’s 186.7 bpa.
🍶 Ethanol Sets a New Record
U.S. ethanol output hit 1.12 million barrels/day, the highest ever.
Stocks: 22.66 million barrels
Margins: +15 ¢ to +35 ¢ across the Corn Belt (Reuters data)
Strong corn grind and robust demand continue to support prices.
🌱 Brazil’s Fertilizer Gamble
Brazil Potash Corp. is investing $2.5 billion in an Amazon potash mine, aiming for self-sufficiency by 2030.
Currently 90% of fertilizer imports come from Russia — a huge risk.
Chinese investors are reportedly eyeing future supply deals tied to crop exports.
🐄 Cattle Market Meltdown
Cattle futures collapsed to limit-down levels Wednesday.
Despite Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins confirming the U.S.–Mexico border remains closed to feeder imports, her mention that Trump wants to reopen it added to panic.
Even with strong fundamentals — record-low cow herd, solid beef demand — government price-control talk has shattered trader confidence.
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💰 Farm Aid Update
The Trump administration still plans to deliver additional farm aid once the shutdown ends—reportedly up to $12B to offset trade-war impacts. USDA Deputy Secretary Vaden says the final total could shift depending on the China-deal market response, but the aid won’t be replaced by the truce framework.
This program would look a lot like Trump's first-term MFP rollout.
Meanwhile, inflation remains a thorn in the side of producers. And betting markets think the shutdown wraps late next week.
🏭 ADM Outlook Cut
ADM just trimmed its 2025 profit outlook. Weak soybean crush, soft ethanol margins, and China trade uncertainty are dragging earnings.
CEO Juan Luciano says markets need clearer China trade policy + biofuel rules—both delayed by the shutdown.
ADM's Q3 profit fell ~19%.
💵 King Dollar Flexes
Risk-off vibes Tuesday pushed the dollar higher—four-month highs vs. the euro. Markets are suddenly less confident in a December rate cut (65% vs. 94% last week). Stocks slipped, safe havens bid.
🌽🚜 Farmer Sentiment Rebounds
The Purdue/CME Ag Barometer up to 129 in October.
Livestock still outshines crops—cattle profits remain massive.
58% say tariffs will strengthen US ag, while uncertainty lingers for others.
Importantly, this data came before the US-China “trade truce” news.
📊 Barometer graphics below.
🐂 Mexican Cattle Border Still Closed
Sec. Brooke Rollins says not yet on reopening the border to Mexican feeder cattle.
Screwworm containment is improving, but the USDA is still cautious—price pressure in beef is not part of the decision, per Rollins.
📏 S&P Global Crop Estimates
S&P holding steady:
🌽 Corn yield ~185.5 bpa, crop ~16.8B bu
🌱 Soybeans ~53 bpa, crop ~4.26B bu
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🌎 China’s Soybean Shuffle
China booked 20 Brazilian soybean cargoes—half for December, the rest for March–July—as Brazil undercuts US Gulf prices again.
Traders still expect US purchases under the truce, but the market wants official tariff news from Beijing.
US futures rallied anyway—Jan26 +19¢ to $11.34, the highest since July.
The rumor mill says more US deals behind closed doors. 👀
🚢 Export Check: Soybeans Weak, Corn Hot
US soybean inspections: 965K mt—down hard from last week and last year 😬
China is still absent.
Corn? 🔥 Big week—1.7 mmt, up sharply vs. last year.
Wheat is also stronger YoY.
🇨🇳 China Looks at US Wheat Again
China sniffing around SRW/HRW cargoes for Dec–Feb.
Traders call it goodwill buying more than economics.
Wheat futures pop—Dec25 closes near $5.44, the best in 3 months.
🌱 Brazil Planting Lags
Heat + dryness slowing planting: 47% vs 54% last year.
Some replant risk.
StoneX tweaks the outlook:
• Beans slightly higher at 178.9mmt
• Second corn crop cut to 107mmt
🇺🇸 US Harvest Almost Wrapped
Analysts peg harvest at:
• Corn 83% (vs 91% last year)
• Soybeans 91% (vs 94%)
Dry weather helped.
Still no crop progress reports during the shutdown—but WASDE/Prod is still coming Nov 14.
📊 StoneX US Yield Update
• Corn: 186 bpa—slight bump
• Beans: 53.6 bpa—trimmed
US production is essentially steady vs last month.
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🎙️ Welcome back to Grain Markets & Other Stuff! 🌾
This week we sit down with USDA Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins for a big-time conversation on the future of American agriculture and global trade. Strap in—this one hits all the hot topics 👇
🇨🇳 US/China “Trade Deal” & Soybean Purchases
What does the new agreement really mean for US farmers?
Will China step up for big-volume soybean buys again — or is the market over-hyping it? 🌱🚢
🌟 “Golden Era of Agriculture”?
President Trump says US agriculture is entering a Golden Era — Brooke breaks down what that means for:
Farm income
Global demand
Export competitiveness
Long-term policy vision
Is it optimism… or reality coming fast? 💪🌽✨
💸 Direct Farm Payments & Input Costs
We talk:
Future support programs
Input inflation pressures (seed, fertilizer, fuel)
Policy responses to farm margins getting squeezed
🇲🇽 Border, Beef & Feeder Cattle
How does the southern border tie into livestock markets? And what’s the real story on:
Mexican border flows
Feeder cattle prices
Beef import potential
U.S. herd rebuilding timeline 🐂📈
🏢 USDA Workforce Cuts
Yep—layoffs. Why the shake-up, and what farmers should expect going forward.
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✅ Welcome back — today we’re breaking down China’s long-term soybean commitment and what it really means for US farmers. 🌱🇺🇸🇨🇳
🌍 Global Market & Trade 🌐
China agreed to resume long-term US soybean buying under the new Trump-Xi trade truce:
12mmt through January
25mmt annually for 3 years
Removal of tariffs on most US ag goods
This is below the 29mmt average over the past 5 years—but far better than the “zero-buy” fear.
Chinese state media confirmed ag buys — but not the exact volumes Bessent mentioned.
ASA reaction:
✅ Positive tone
✅ Relief after stalled demand
✅ Optimism for future growth
Also—both countries will pause vessel fees for 12 months, easing $3.2B in shipping pressure.
Soybeans rallied on the announcement 👇
Jan26: +13¢ to ~$11.08/bu
Corn slipped lower
Dec25: down ~4¢ to ~$4.30
No corn commitments in this agreement + USDA reports paused by shutdown = headwinds
Wheat lower
Dec Chicago: -8¢ near $5.24
📝 Key Takeaway
This deal is not a blockbuster, but it does restore baseline demand and boosts confidence after months of uncertainty.
Markets like it. Farmers like it.
And it beats the alternative. ✔️
🌦️ Weather & Crop Conditions
US drought conditions were mostly steady this week.
Some relief in parts of KY/OH/MI, but dryness worsened in IA & IL.
High Plains remains least impacted; mixed changes in the Dakotas & the Southern Plains.
Corn impacted by drought: 30%
Soybeans: 34%
Winter wheat: 40%
Cattle areas in drought: 26%
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🌦️ Macro & Policy
President Trump says talks with Xi were “12 out of 10” and announced tariff cuts tied to fentanyl cooperation. China says they reached consensus on fentanyl and agricultural trade, but no actual volume numbers yet.
Trump jumped on Truth Social claiming China will buy “massive amounts” of U.S. farm goods — and even told farmers to go buy more land and bigger tractors 🚜😂
Policy headline? ✅
Actual commitments? 🤷♂️
🌾 Grains & China Buying
COFCO reportedly bought three cargoes of U.S. soybeans, but markets barely moved. Traders want to see follow-through, not headlines.
Soybean bulls: 🤝 Hope & prayer
Futures: 🥱 Neutral to slightly lower
Until we see more sales, the market remains cautious.
🐄 Cattle & Border News
U.S.–Mexico border stays closed to feeder cattle as officials work to eradicate the screwworm outbreak.
$21M U.S. investment in sterile fly program
No timeline for reopening
Cattle futures liked the news — big rally Wednesday.
⛽ Ethanol Update
Ethanol output dipped slightly on the week but remains strong vs last year, with margins running 10–40¢ positive across the Corn Belt. Stocks rose slightly.
Margins holding firm = supportive for corn demand.
🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Outlook
Rabobank expects a record Brazilian soybean crush and higher acreage, but stable exports.
Corn acreage is up too—but production is seen down ~3.5%.
Brazil keeps expanding. No surprise 😬🌎🌱
💵 Interest Rates & Macro
The Fed cut rates again—the second time this year—taking the benchmark to 3.75%–4%.
Powell pushing back on a “cut every meeting” approach.
Markets now see a 67% chance of another cut in December (down from ~90%).
The government shutdown still limiting data flow—fun times 🙃
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🇨🇳 China Buys U.S. Soybeans for the First Time This Marketing Year
🌦 Market Highlights
China has purchased U.S. soybeans for the first time this marketing year. Reuters reports that state-owned COFCO bought three cargoes (≈180,000 mt / 6.6 mil bu) for Dec–Jan shipment ahead of the Trump–Xi meeting in South Korea. U.S. beans remain about 50¢/bu cheaper than Brazilian beans for November export.
🌾 Futures Action
Soybean futures hit their highest level in over a year Tuesday. The Jan 26 contract reached $11.00 before easing to around $10.95 on profit-taking and increased farmer selling. Corn and wheat also advanced—Dec 25 corn closed near $4.32/bu, its best since early July.
🏛 Washington Watch
The U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee held a hearing on seed and fertilizer market concentration. Four companies now control 80% of corn seed and 75% of soybean seed sales. The American Soybean Association warned that farmers face mounting pressure as production costs surge and prices fall—soybean producers could see net losses of $109/acre this year.
🤝 Global Trade & Policy
The U.S. and Japan signed two agreements Tuesday—one strengthening the alliance, another on rare-earth supply chains. Despite the fanfare, key trade gaps remain. Japan already imports roughly $12 billion in U.S. ag products annually, including corn, beef, pork, and soybeans, suggesting its new $8 billion annual commitment likely reflects normal volumes.
🐄 Livestock Pressure
Feeder cattle futures fell sharply again as President Trump vowed to lower beef prices. Since his Argentine beef import proposal, feeder cattle have dropped nearly $50/cwt amid speculation of resumed Mexican imports and tariff cuts on Brazilian beef.
🌽 Ethanol & Energy
India continues to block U.S. ethanol imports despite U.S. pressure in ongoing trade talks. India blends about 2.6 billion gal/year of ethanol domestically and protects its farmers’ $13 billion in feedstock income—making ethanol policy a major sticking point.
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🌾 Welcome to today’s grain market update!
Soybean futures surged to their highest level since June as optimism grows that China may resume U.S. soybean purchases following President Trump’s comments on a potential trade deal with President Xi.
🌤️ Weather & Harvest Progress
Corn and soybean harvests are nearly wrapped up across the U.S. Analysts estimate the corn harvest at 72% complete and soybeans at 84%, both slightly behind last year’s record pace. Rain slowed progress in parts of the Corn Belt, but steady combining continues elsewhere. With the government still shut down, no official Crop Production or WASDE report is expected on November 10th.
🌎 Global Market Trends
Brazilian planting is racing ahead — 36% of soybeans and 55% of first-crop corn are in the ground, matching last year’s pace. Conab pegs Brazil’s soybean crop at 177.6mmt (+3.6% YoY) and corn output at 138.6mmt (-1.8% YoY).
🚢 Export & Shipment Data
U.S. soybean inspections were disappointing at 1.1mmt — the weakest seasonal figure since 2011/12. Corn shipments were 1.2mmt, and wheat came in light at just 258kmt. Top soybean destinations included Indonesia, Israel, and Italy.
🐂 Livestock & Policy Watch
Cattle markets were hammered again Monday. Feeder cattle contracts hit expanded limits, and live cattle dropped sharply amid news of expanded Argentine beef imports and possible Mexican feeder cattle inflows. A Trump–Brazil meeting also hinted at renewed Brazilian beef trade.
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🇺🇸🇨🇳 US-China Trade Talks
US and Chinese leaders made progress on a trade deal during meetings in Malaysia. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said President Trump’s 100% tariff threat on Chinese goods is now off the table. He also hinted at an agreement that would extend the current tariff truce and defer China’s export controls on rare earth minerals. China is expected to make substantial purchases of US soybeans, though details on volumes and timing are still unclear. The talks set the stage for a meeting later this week between Trump and Xi Jinping in South Korea, where a final deal could be announced.
🌾 Ag Markets: Soybeans, Corn & Wheat
Soybean futures gapped higher overnight. The Jan ’26 contract trades at its best level since late August, while the spot Nov ’25 contract is at its highest since July 2024. Corn and wheat futures are also trading higher, supported by optimism over renewed Chinese demand and improved export prospects.
🔍 Phase One Review
The US has launched an investigation into China’s compliance with the 2020 Phase One trade deal. That agreement required China to significantly boost imports of US farm goods, especially soybeans. China committed to an average of $40 billion per year over two years but reached only about 77% of the target. A public hearing is scheduled for December 16, and the probe could lead to new tariffs if violations are found.
🐄 Cattle & Beef Markets
Cattle futures closed sharply lower on Friday, with many contracts hitting their daily limit down. The selloff was triggered by reports that US and Mexican officials will meet to discuss reopening the border to Mexican feeder cattle imports. Traders are also reacting to plans by the Trump administration to lower domestic beef prices by allowing more Argentine beef imports. The uncertainty has caused speculators to unwind large net long positions in the cattle market.
💸 Inflation & Markets
Inflation came in slightly cooler than expected in September. The CPI rose 0.3% for the month and 3.0% from a year ago. Gasoline prices were up 4.1% for the month and accounted for much of the gain. The softer inflation report boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its meeting this week.
📈 Stock Market Rally
Stocks rallied to record highs on Friday. The Dow Jones topped 47,000 for the first time, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both logged strong weekly gains. The market optimism is driven by easing inflation and growing confidence that interest rate cuts are on the way.
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🌱 Soybeans & Corn
Soybean and corn futures advanced on Thursday. The Nov25 soybean contract rose 10¢ to about $10.45/bu, its highest level in more than a month. Support came from surging oil prices, optimism over a potential US–China trade deal, and strong crush margins.
The Dec25 corn contract gained 5¢ to $4.28/bu, boosted by strong export demand, firmer basis bids, and limited farmer selling. Rumors swirled of Chinese purchases of US soybeans and wheat—US beans remain 64¢ cheaper than Brazil’s on a global basis.
🌏 Trump–Xi Trade Talks
President Trump and President Xi will meet next Thursday in South Korea on the sidelines of the APEC Summit. The talks follow Trump’s recent threat to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods after Beijing’s new rare earth restrictions.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is meeting with Chinese negotiators in Malaysia this weekend to prepare the groundwork.
🛢️ Oil & Sanctions
The US blacklisted two Russian oil firms, pressuring China to curb Russian crude imports—which make up roughly 20% of its supply. Companies that ignore sanctions risk losing access to global financial systems.
Oil prices jumped 5.6%, with WTI crude at $61.75/bbl.
🥩 Argentine Beef Imports
The US will quadruple beef imports from Argentina, raising the tariff quota to 80,000mt (176M lbs). Critics say it hurts US ranchers and won’t meaningfully lower prices—the increase equals just 0.8% of annual consumption.
🇺🇸 US beef consumption ≈ 28.6B lbs
🇦🇷 Annual beef imports ≈ 5B+ lbs
🐄 US–Mexico Border Talks
Talks resume next week to reopen the border for Mexican feeder cattle. The closure since May, due to a New World screwworm outbreak, has reduced US feedlot placements by ~500,000 head over three months.
🌤️ US Drought Update (USDA Monitor)
Drought conditions were mostly steady last week.
✅ Improvement: Southern IL, Western KY
❌ Worsening: NE Iowa, Eastern IL, Central OK
US Areas Experiencing Drought
🌽 Corn – 32%
🌱 Soybeans – 39%
🌾 Winter Wheat – 43%
🌾 Spring Wheat – 16%
🐄 Cattle – 27%
💬 Stay Informed
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Today’s Focus: Trump vs. Ranchers, China’s Crop Damage, and U.S.–China Trade Tensions 🇺🇸🌾
🐄 Trump Attacks U.S. Ranchers
President Trump took aim at U.S. cattle ranchers Wednesday, criticizing their pushback against his plan to lower domestic beef prices. He claimed ranchers owe their success to his tariff policies and suggested they’d be struggling without him. The remarks followed his recent move to boost Argentine beef imports — a decision that sent cattle futures plunging. Live cattle dropped more than $7/cwt, while feeder cattle hit their daily limit, down $9.25/cwt. See Trump’s Truth Social posts below.
🌧️ China’s Corn Crop in Trouble
Heavy rain is hammering northern China’s corn belt — the wettest stretch in 60 years — leaving millions of acres unharvested and some crops rotting. Imports are down 93% from last year as China leans on domestic supply, but the losses could tighten stocks. USDA pegs China’s corn reserves at 193 mmt, roughly 45% of this year’s U.S. crop. Corn harvest is likely about 75% complete. Six key provinces, accounting for nearly 40% of production, have faced excessive rain in recent weeks.
🤝 U.S.–China Trade Talks
U.S. and Chinese officials will meet in Malaysia this weekend ahead of a potential Trump–Xi summit in South Korea. The U.S. has threatened 100% tariffs on Chinese imports beginning November 1 if no agreement is reached. China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng is leading the delegation in ongoing talks through Sunday. Soybean purchases and rare earth mineral restrictions remain key flashpoints.
💻 New Export Controls?
The Trump administration is weighing fresh export restrictions on critical U.S. software to China, mirroring measures once aimed at Russia. The plan may involve coordination with G-7 allies but remains preliminary. It follows China’s new port fees on U.S. vessels and limits on rare earth exports.
⛽ Ethanol Output Near Record
U.S. ethanol production jumped to 1.11 million barrels per day last week — the second-highest on record. Stocks dropped to a 51-week low near 21.9 million barrels. Margins across the Corn Belt remain solid, ranging from +20¢ to +50¢ per gallon.
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✅ Welcome to today’s update! We’re covering farm aid, trade talks, beef expansion plans, global wheat crops, and precious metals volatility.
🌾 USDA Resumes Farm Aid
The Trump administration will restart $3 billion in payments through the Farm Service Agency. All FSA offices reopen Thursday, with ARC/PLC and loan programs resuming after the shutdown pause. Brooke Rollins says additional support for farmers impacted by the US–China trade war will follow soon.
🤝 Trump–Xi Meeting & Soybeans
Trump remains optimistic about a meeting with Xi Jinping later this month in South Korea, though the timing isn’t guaranteed. He said, “Maybe it won’t happen… it’s just business.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent meets with Chinese officials this weekend to prepare. No new US soybean sales to China have been reported as tensions persist.
🥩 Beef Expansion Plan
USDA plans to open more land for cattle production and build new processing plants. Rollins says the move will grow the cowherd and reduce beef prices. The plan follows backlash over increased Argentine beef imports.
🌾 Russia’s Wheat Outlook
IKAR raised Russia’s wheat crop forecast slightly to 88 mmt. Exports remain sluggish—down 18% from last year—keeping global wheat prices under pressure.
🥇 Gold & Silver Slide
Gold plunged 6.3% to $4,105 and silver 8.3%, marking their steepest drops in years. Analysts see $4,000 as key gold support, with Goldman targeting $4,900 by 2026.
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🇺🇸🌎 U.S.–Colombia Tensions Escalate
President Trump announced new aid cuts and potential tariffs against Colombia, accusing President Gustavo Petro of failing to curb drug production. Colombia — a longtime U.S. ally — received $230 million in aid last year, down from more than $700 million in earlier years. The country pulled its ambassador from D.C. but has not announced any economic retaliation. Since Colombia accounted for 11% of U.S. corn exports (≈2% of total demand), these tensions could carry real ag-trade implications. 🌽
🇨🇳🚫 China Stops Buying U.S. Soybeans
For the first time since 2018, China imported zero U.S. soybeans in September. A year ago, the figure was 1.7 mmt. Meanwhile, Brazil’s shipments to China jumped 30%, and Argentina’s surged 92%. Total Chinese soybean imports hit 12.9 mmt — the second-highest monthly total on record. Without a trade deal, China may face a supply gap early next year before Brazil’s new-crop harvest. 🌱
📦 Weekly Export Inspections
USDA reported:
• Soybeans – 1.5 mmt (+45% vs week prior)
• Corn – 1.3 mmt (+9%)
• Wheat – 480,614 mt (+7%)
Top soybean destinations: Mexico, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Germany.
🇧🇷🌦️ Brazil Planting Progress
AgRural says 24% of Brazil’s soybean crop is planted (up from 14% last week and 18% last year). First-crop corn planting is 51% complete. Conab projects soybean output at 177.6 mmt (+3.6% YoY) and corn at 138.6 mmt (-1.8% YoY).
🥩 Argentina Beef Imports?
Trump says he’s considering increased Argentine beef imports to ease U.S. prices and support Argentina’s economy. But Argentina supplies only 2% of U.S. beef imports — even if the U.S. bought its entire export capacity (770,000 mt), price effects would be minimal. Foot-and-mouth disease risks make this a controversial proposal. 🐄
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🚜 ADM Deferred Pricing Offer
ADM is now offering deferred pricing at its Decatur, IL facility — a move aimed at jumpstarting soybean deliveries. Farmers can deliver soybeans now, transfer ownership, and set a final price anytime before September 2026.
🟡 No storage fees
🟡 Immediate ADM ownership
🟡 Unusual timing — normally seen after the new year
Slow farmer sales due to weak prices are tightening processor supplies, prompting ADM’s rare “free DP” incentive.
🇺🇸🇨🇳 U.S.–China Trade Talks
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng meet in Malaysia this week. The session sets the stage for a Trump–Xi meeting later this month.
👉 Trump hinted he’s open to lowering tariffs if China resumes soybean purchases “like before.”
👉 The trade truce expires in November, keeping markets on edge.
🌽🫘 Futures Update
Corn and soybeans both ended the week higher:
🌽 Dec ’25 Corn – around $4.23, supported by slow sales and lower yields
🫘 Nov ’25 Soybeans – near $10.20, boosted by domestic demand and trade optimism
Overnight gains continued after Trump’s weekend remarks.
🇧🇷 Brazil Planting Progress
Brazilian soybean planting is racing ahead — 23% complete vs. 9% last year.
🌧️ Well-distributed rain + warm temps are ideal.
📊 Conab projects 177.7 MMT, while USDA is at 175 MMT.
🐄 Cattle Market Moves
Cattle futures tumbled Friday after Trump hinted at potential steps to lower beef prices.
💬 Analyst Brad Kooima says inflation-adjusted prices remain stable, but political pressure could spark a Brazil beef import deal, worrying U.S. producers.
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🌽 Corn Market Turns Higher
Corn and soybean futures advanced Thursday, supported by smaller-than-expected yields and harvest delays from upcoming rains. Dec ’25 corn added 5¢ to $4.22 while Nov ’25 soybeans climbed 4¢ to $10.11. Strong domestic crush demand and tighter spreads helped fuel optimism. Corn calendar spreads have rallied sharply—slow farmer selling and steady ethanol demand likely helped. 📈
🇨🇳 China’s Soybean Dilemma
High Brazilian premiums ($2.80–$2.90 over futures) may force China to tap its state reserves as crush margins remain negative. With 43.5 mmt of soybeans in storage—the largest on record—China has room to draw down stocks as it battles through the trade war.
🐄 Cattle Prices Hit New Highs
Live cattle surged to record levels, driven by tight supplies and border closures to Mexican cattle imports. Fat cattle traded $240/cwt in parts of the Midwest. The Trump administration says it’s working to lower beef prices, possibly through new import deals.
⛽ Ethanol Stays Strong
US ethanol production rose to 1.07 million bpd last week while stocks fell slightly. Margins across the Corn Belt remain solid—between 20–50¢ positive, according to Reuters.
🏈 CME Launches “Prediction Futures”
CME Group plans to roll out new contracts linked to sports and economic outcomes, partnering with FanDuel. These products could shake up prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket.
🌦️ Drought Update
USDA data shows 38% of the Corn Belt still under drought, though that’s improved from last year’s 53%. The worst areas remain in parts of Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, and South Dakota.
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🌾 Farm Bailout on Hold
A “clever and generous” farm aid package is ready to launch once the government shutdown ends. Kevin Hassett says it was supposed to drop by Oct. 7 but got delayed. Reports point to at least $10 billion — likely funded by tariff revenue — to offset weak exports and global oversupply. Polymarket bettors see a 33% chance the shutdown lasts past Nov. 16.
💸 U.S. Support for Argentina
The Treasury plans another $20 billion to stabilize Argentina’s economy — on top of last week’s swap line. Scott Bessent says funding is policy-linked, not political. Some reports hint the U.S. has already bought Argentine pesos, implying exposure to currency risk.
🌱 NOPA September Crush
The September soybean crush hit 197.86 million bushels — the fourth-highest on record and 11.6% above last year. Soybean oil stocks fell to 1.24 billion pounds, the lowest since Dec 2024 and below trade expectations.
🇨🇳 Trade War Confusion
Trump confirmed the U.S. is “in a trade war with China,” even as Bessent floated extending the current truce if China halts rare-earth export controls. Talks with South Korea, Canada & India continue, and Trump is still set to meet Xi in South Korea later this month.
🚢 Mississippi River Crisis
Low water levels for the fourth straight year are tightening grain transport south of St. Louis. Rates are rising and efficiency is dropping just as soybean exports face trade-war headwinds.
💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments—are markets overreacting to trade headlines?
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🇺🇸 Trump Eyes Cooking Oil Embargo Against China
President Trump is considering a cooking oil embargo targeting China 🇨🇳. The move follows Beijing’s refusal to buy U.S. soybeans—which Trump called an “economically hostile act.”
🛢️ Biofuels & UCO Trade Shift
Chinese used cooking oil (UCO) exports hit record highs in 2024, with the U.S. buying 1.3 MMT—43% of total exports. But those imports have likely plunged this year since biofuel tax incentives for imported UCO were eliminated. Trump says the U.S. can produce its own cooking oil supply.
🌱 Soybean Market Update
Soybean futures ticked slightly lower Tuesday despite strong export inspections — 994,000 MT last week, the best since February. Top buyers: Mexico, Spain & Bangladesh.
Corn and wheat shipments were mixed as traders remain cautious with the USDA data delay during the government shutdown.
🚢 Port Fees & Trade Tensions
Trump’s new U.S. port fees are adding pressure to Chinese shipping companies like COSCO & OOCL. China has retaliated with special vessel fees on certain U.S. ships.
👉 Note: Most grain shipments are exempt thanks to strong farm-group pushback.
🌎 Brazil Crop Outlook
🇧🇷 Conab projects record soybean output at 177.6 MMT, up 3.5% YoY, with exports near 112 MMT. Corn output seen at 138.6 MMT, with exports of 46.5 MMT (+16%).
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🇺🇸🤝🇨🇳 US-China Meeting Still On
President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are still expected to meet in South Korea at the end of the month to discuss trade. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the plans on Monday, easing fears the meeting might be canceled after a tense weekend. The news helped stocks rebound after Friday’s sell-off. Bessent said the two sides held extensive talks over the weekend and will continue discussions this week in Washington during the World Bank and IMF meetings. China’s commerce ministry reiterated it remains open to dialogue but warned the US against making threats while seeking talks.
🌽🌱 US Harvest Progress Slows
The US corn and soybean harvests are trailing last year’s pace. A Reuters poll showed corn harvest at 44% complete and soybeans at 58%, both slightly behind 2023 levels. Analysts attribute the lag to slower crop dry-down. Normally, USDA reports would confirm progress, but updates are paused due to the ongoing government shutdown.
💵📈 Dollar Rebounds Amid Trade Hopes
The US dollar climbed Monday on optimism about a potential trade deal with China, brushing off Trump’s latest tariff threats. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%, while the yen and euro weakened. Despite Friday’s market tumble, comments from Trump and Vice President JD Vance suggested openness to more talks, helping restore confidence in US markets.
🚜📊 Tractor Sales Finally Rise
US tractor sales increased 4.1% in September—the first gain in over a year. The modest rebound offers hope for the struggling farm machinery sector, though combine sales plunged 22%. Manufacturers like John Deere expect 2025 to mark the low point for sales, with recovery likely next year.
🌎🌾 China’s Soybean Imports Hit Record Levels
China imported 12.9mmt of soybeans in September, the second-highest monthly total ever and the fifth straight record. Year-to-date imports are up 5.3% from last year, driven by strong demand and higher purchases from Argentina and Brazil. China hasn’t yet bought US soybeans this season, and renewed trade tensions are casting doubt on a Trump-Xi meeting to discuss the issue.
🇧🇷🌱 Brazil’s Soybean Planting Accelerates
Soybean planting in Brazil is moving quickly—14% complete as of last week, the third-fastest pace on record. AgRural reports rapid progress despite uneven weather, with Conab projecting a 177.7mmt crop. Brazil’s first corn crop is 45% planted, slightly ahead of last year’s pace.
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🚨 U.S.–China Trade Tensions Flare Again
Trade tensions between the U.S. and China have escalated sharply. On Friday, President Trump announced plans to impose new 100% tariffs on Chinese imports starting November 1, raising total tariffs on many goods to 130%. The move follows China’s announcement of its own export controls, set to begin the same day. The back-and-forth has cast doubt on a potential Trump–Xi meeting later this month. Trump’s follow-up post on Sunday struck a softer tone, helping markets recover part of Friday’s losses. See both Truth Social posts below.
🌾 Soybeans & Ag Markets
Soybean futures tumbled on Friday as trade tensions intensified. November ’25 soybeans fell 16¢ to around $10.07/bu after China announced new export restrictions and retaliatory port fees. The measures would target rare earth minerals and U.S.-linked vessels. Trump responded that there was “no reason” to meet with Xi and reaffirmed tariff threats. Hopes for a renewed Chinese purchase program have faded, though the U.S. is now exploring alternative export markets and domestic soybean uses.
📉 Stocks & Crude Oil Reaction
The S&P 500 dropped 2.7%, Dow −1.9%, and Nasdaq −3.6% Friday—Wall Street’s worst day since April. The sell-off followed Trump’s tariff announcement and China’s rare-earth retaliation. Oil prices also slid, with WTI crude dipping below $59/bbl, the lowest since May. Despite the sharp move, equities remain near record highs after a months-long rally. Early Monday, futures rebounded following Trump’s more conciliatory weekend tone.
💥 Crypto Market Meltdown
The tariff shock triggered the largest crypto liquidation in history—nearly 1.6 million traders liquidated, totaling $19 billion+, with some estimates as high as $400 billion in wiped-out value. Bitcoin plunged 12%, from over $125k to under $113k. Analysts now eye $100k as key support. Excessive leverage across crypto markets amplified the crash—“altcoins” were hit hardest. See Charlie Munger’s quote below on the dangers of leverage.
🌦️ U.S. Weather & Harvest Progress
Weekend rainfall was light across much of the Corn Belt, with heavier totals in central/northern Missouri. Limited rains also reached the Dakotas and Minnesota. Based on prior USDA data (as of Sept 29: corn 18% harvested, soybeans 19%), harvest is likely near 50% complete. With the government shutdown, no new Crop Progress report will be released today.
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🇨🇳 Trump Eyes Soybean Revival
President Trump says he’s confident China will resume buying U.S. soybeans 🌱. He plans to pressure Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month to restart imports. A new farm aid package was expected this week to offset trade war losses, but the government shutdown ⛔ has delayed it. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins says once the government reopens, a “significant” support program will roll out. Trump warned that if talks fail, the U.S. could restrict exports to China—or block Chinese imports entirely. ⚖️
📉 Markets in the Dark
The shutdown has blinded grain markets. With the USDA halting major reports—including export sales, crop progress, and WASDE—market transparency has vanished. Analysts say the lack of data is fueling uncertainty during harvest. 🌾 Big players like Cargill and ADM still have their own numbers, but smaller traders are left guessing. Many expect market corrections once the reports resume.
🔥 Heat and Drought Deepen
USDA’s latest drought monitor shows hot, dry weather worsening conditions across the Corn Belt. 🌡️ Drought expanded in Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan, and Missouri, while only parts of Iowa saw slight improvement. The High Plains also stayed dry, with more drought creeping into South Dakota, Nebraska, and Oklahoma.
Areas in Drought:
🌽 Corn – 31%
🫘 Soybeans – 39%
🌾 Winter Wheat – 45%
🌱 Spring Wheat – 16%
🐄 Cattle – 25%
💵 U.S. Backs Argentina’s Economy
The U.S. has launched a $20 billion financial rescue plan for Argentina, including a currency swap and direct peso purchases 🇦🇷. Some call the move risky, citing Argentina’s default history. U.S. farmers aren’t thrilled either—Argentina’s boosted soybean sales to China have cut into American export opportunities. 😒
🌻 Russia Cuts Wheat Plantings
Russian farmers plan to reduce wheat acreage by 6%, shifting to oilseeds instead. Poor profits, high export duties, and drought are driving the change. Russia expects to harvest about 88 million metric tons, but global oversupply keeps wheat prices near five-year lows. 📉
🤝 U.S.–India Talks Gain Ground
Trade talks between the U.S. and India are showing progress 🇮🇳. Modi and Trump discussed recent breakthroughs, and another round is coming soon. The U.S. wants India to stop buying Russian oil, while India offered to import U.S. corn for ethanol as a concession. India produces 2.5B gallons of ethanol yearly—far below the U.S.’s 17B gallons. 🌽⚗️
Stay informed! 📈
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🇨🇳 China Fuels Brazil’s Soybean Boom
China’s surging demand is driving Brazilian soybean exports to record highs. 🌱 Brazil is on pace to ship 102.2 MMT by the end of October, surpassing last year’s record. Nearly 80% of those exports are headed to China, as the country turns away from U.S. soybeans amid the ongoing trade war. With a bumper harvest, exports could reach 110 MMT for the full year.
🌾 U.S. Farmers Face a Soybean Storage Squeeze
A rapid harvest and weak Chinese demand have U.S. farmers running out of space. 🚜 Many face tough choices — piling soybeans on the ground under tarps or selling at steep discounts. In North Dakota, this year’s crop is expected to exceed storage by 33%, with surpluses of 26% in South Dakota and 15% in Nebraska.
🛢️ Oil Slips as Tensions Ease and Supplies Build
Oil prices fell Wednesday as easing Middle East tensions and rising U.S. inventories weighed on the market. Brent dipped below $66, and WTI slid to $61.50 per barrel. President Trump announced a Gaza hostage-release deal, while U.S. crude stockpiles rose for a second week. Analysts expect a market surplus soon, with Goldman Sachs projecting Brent to average $56 next year.
🍶 U.S. Ethanol Output Hits Seasonal High
Ethanol production jumped 7.6% week-over-week to 1.07 million barrels per day, the highest this season. Stocks fell slightly to 22.7 million barrels, while margins across the Corn Belt remain positive—ranging from 20¢ to 45¢ per gallon. 💪
💸 Fed Split on Path for Rate Cuts
Federal Reserve minutes revealed most policymakers expect more rate cuts this year, but opinions remain divided. 📉 Inflation is still sticky even as the labor market cools. The median forecast calls for two more quarter-point cuts by year-end, though some members see fewer. Markets are betting on cuts in October and December.
🥇 Precious Metals Hit Record Highs
Gold and silver soared Wednesday on safe-haven demand. 💰 Gold broke above $4,000/oz, and silver hit $49.57/oz—both all-time highs. The rallies were fueled by geopolitical risks, rate-cut expectations, and the U.S. government shutdown. Goldman Sachs now sees gold climbing to $4,900 by the end of 2026, with prices up 50% this year.
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🇺🇸 US Farmer Sentiment
US farmer sentiment was mostly steady in September. Purdue University's CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index ticked up slightly to 126, just one point above August. About 71% of farmers believe the US is headed in the right direction.
Confidence in tariffs, however, has declined. Only 51% of respondents expect tariffs to benefit agriculture long-term, down from 63% in June and 70% earlier this year. Many farmers are counting on government support to help offset trade pressures, with 83% expecting a program similar to the 2019 MFP if the trade war continues. 🌽💵
📊 USDA Reports Delayed
The USDA won’t release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE report due to the ongoing government shutdown. Reuters shared analysts’ expectations: US corn yield and production are expected to drop ~1%, while soybeans show little change. Corn carryout is projected to reach a seven-year high, supported by historically large September 1 stocks. Global ending stocks for corn, soybeans, and wheat are also expected to rise. 🌍🌾
🚢 Mississippi River Challenges
Low water levels on the Mississippi River are causing grain transport issues. Although recent stabilization has allowed barge traffic, levels may drop again as harvest picks up. Higher barge rates are driving up shipping costs, which ultimately affect farmers. Combined with weak commodity prices, this has created record storage deficits across the Corn Belt—the worst since 2016—in Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, Nebraska, and South Dakota. 🛶📈
🇦🇷 Argentina Oilseed Strike
Argentine oilseed workers began an indefinite strike over wage disputes, supported by multiple industry groups. The labor ministry has called a 15-day conciliation period, halting strike actions temporarily. This comes shortly after a brief pause on export taxes for many agricultural products. ⚖️✊
🏛️ US Government Shutdown
The US government shutdown entered its eighth day with no end in sight. President Trump warned that furloughed workers might not receive back pay, seen as pressure on lawmakers. The Senate will vote on competing funding bills after both failed to reach 60 votes on Monday. The administration also cautioned that prolonged shutdowns could lead to permanent layoffs rather than temporary furloughs. ⏳📉
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💰 US Farm Aid Update
The Trump administration is set to announce a $10–15 billion farm aid package this week to help farmers hit by the trade war. 🌽🇺🇸 The ongoing government shutdown could make approval tricky, and existing funds may not be enough to cover the full payout. Last week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the package would be unveiled soon. During Trump’s first term, over $23 billion was provided to offset trade losses, and even without the new aid, U.S. farmers are already set to receive more than $40 billion this year. 📈
📊 US Crop Progress
The USDA’s weekly crop report wasn’t released on Monday due to the government shutdown. Analysts estimate the corn harvest is about 30% complete, up from 18% last week, while the soybean harvest is around 35%, compared with 19% a week earlier. Dry conditions last week helped farmers wrap up soybeans and move on to corn. This week’s forecast calls for mostly dry weather across the Corn Belt, except in Ohio and Kentucky, where significant rainfall is expected. Temperatures are projected to stay above average. 🌽🌱
🚢 US Exports
US corn shipments reached 1.6 MMT (63M bushels) for the week ending October 2, hitting a marketing-year high and up 69% from last year. Soybean exports totaled 768,117 MT (28M bushels), up 26% from last week but down 53% from the same week last year, highlighting the absence of Chinese purchases. Wheat shipments came in at 505,096 MT (19M bushels), down 43% from the prior week but 38% above last year. 📦
🌱 Brazilian Planting
Soybean planting in Brazil is moving quickly. AgRural reports 9% of the crop planted as of last Thursday, up from 3% the previous week and 4% last year—the second-fastest pace on record for this date. Brazil’s first corn crop is 40% planted, compared with 37% last year, marking the fastest start since 2012/2013. 🇧🇷🌾
🤝 US-Brazil trade tensions may be easing
After a 30-minute call on Monday, President Trump and Brazilian President Lula da Silva agreed to meet soon. Discussions focused on economic relations, with Lula requesting the removal of US tariffs on Brazilian goods and sanctions on top officials. US tariffs, including a 50% levy, have hit key exports like coffee (down 70% to the US) and beef. ☕🥩
🐄 New World Screwworm Alert
A new case of New World screwworm was confirmed about 170 miles south of the US-Mexico border in Nuevo León, marking the state’s second detection in two weeks. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said the case is isolated and unrelated to the previous one. The news has supported cattle futures, as the border is expected to remain closed, keeping feeder cattle supplies tight.
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0:00 Farm Bankruptcies
2:14 Bessent, Trade Talks, Farm Bailout
5:16 "Debasement Trade"
8:39 Brazil Update
9:47 Shutdown, Rollins Interview
🌾 Farm Bankruptcies Rising
Farm bankruptcies have increased this year—93 filings in Q2, up from 88 in Q1 and 47 in Q4 2024. Although still low by historical standards, the trend has been upward since 2022. Corn prices have fallen roughly 50% and soybeans 40% since then, reflecting the broader ag downturn. High input costs, weak markets, and limited exports have all played a role.
While USDA projects higher farm income this year, about three-quarters of the growth is expected to come from government payments.
The first chart below (from Fortune Magazine) shows current bankruptcy trends, and the second chart extends back to 1986. Prior data isn’t available because Chapter 12 didn’t exist until 1986—a response to the 1980s farm crisis, when 200,000–300,000farms went under.
🇨🇳 U.S.–China Trade Talks
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the next round of U.S.–China negotiations—set for later this month in South Korea—could produce a breakthrough. President Trump and President Xi are expected to discuss soybean trade and ag exports.
China has shifted more soybean purchases to South America amid the trade war, but Trump is expected to announce a new aid package for farmers this week to offset the impact.
💰 Bitcoin Breaks New Record
Bitcoin hit a record high of $125,689 on Sunday, surpassing its August peak. Equities strength and ETF inflows helped fuel the rally, while the government shutdown sparked safe-haven buying in what investors call a “debasement trade.”
Historically, October has been a strong month for Bitcoin—up in 9 of the past 10 years—and it’s now +31% YTD.
🌱 Brazilian Soybean Planting
Brazilian soybean planting is off to a fast start—9.2% complete vs. 2.3% a year ago, per Patria Agronegocios. Consistent rainfall has helped, and farmers are expected to plant around 120 million acres this season.
While Brazil has been slightly drier than normal lately, above-normal rainfall is forecast for the next two weeks—critical for strong emergence.
🏛 Government Shutdown Update
The shutdown continues after the Senate failed to pass either party’s funding bill on Friday. Roughly half of USDA employees are furloughed, disrupting data collection and delaying key reports, including Export Sales and CFTC’s Commitment of Traders.
The October 9 Crop Production and WASDE reports will likely be postponed. US Ag Secretary Rollins will not be available for our scheduled interview until the shutdown ends.
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0:00 Brian's 'Stache
0:40 Another Farm Bailout
7:35 Argentina Update
9:36 Corteva Split
11:34 Soybean/Corn Rally
15:54 Yield Estimates
17:17 Drought Update
💰 Trump’s New Farmer Aid Plan
President Trump is weighing a $10–$14 billion bailout for US farmers, likely funded by tariff revenues. Payments could start in the coming months, with soybean producers as the main beneficiaries since they’re expected to lose about $100 per acre this year. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says details may be announced as soon as Tuesday. For comparison, the 2018–2020 MFP program totaled $23 billion, with soybeans seeing the largest support ($1.65–$2.05/bu). Rough math suggests something around $10 billion could be realistic this time.
🌍 US–China Soybean Trade & Argentina Tensions
Trump is set to meet with Xi Jinping later this month to push for more Chinese soybean purchases. Any deal could affect the size of the aid program. Meanwhile, the US confirmed support for Argentina via a $20 billion swap line, not direct investment. Farmers are frustrated, as Argentina has recently undercut the US with large soybean sales to China.
🌱 Corteva Breakup News
Corteva will split into two separate companies:
Seed unit → expanding beyond corn and soybeans into cotton and wheat.
Pesticide unit → focusing on cost-cutting as Chinese generics gain ground.
The move is planned for the second half of next year, but shares are already down 15% since September.
📈 Soybean Futures Rally
Soybean futures gained for the second straight day, with the Nov25 contract up nearly 11 cents Thursday, adding to Wednesday’s rally. Optimism is tied directly to Trump’s announcement about the Xi meeting.
🌽 Crop Outlook Cuts
S&P Global cut its forecasts:
Corn yield → 185.5 bpa (down from 189.1)
Corn production → 16.71 bil bu (vs. 16.77)
Soybean yield → 53 bpa (vs. 53.8)
Soybean production → 4.26 bil bu (vs. 4.31)
🔥 USDA Drought Monitor Update
Improved moisture helped Ohio, Kentucky, and parts of Indiana, but conditions worsened in Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, and Iowa.
Current US drought coverage:
Corn → 28%
Soybeans → 37%
Winter Wheat → 45%
Spring Wheat → 13%
Cattle → 24%
👉 Stay tuned—the coming days could bring big announcements on farm aid and trade. Don’t forget to like, subscribe, and drop your thoughts in the comments so we can talk through it together.
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🇨🇳 Trump vs. Xi on Soybeans
President Trump announced he’ll confront China’s Xi Jinping at the upcoming APEC summit over Beijing’s refusal to purchase U.S. soybeans. The news sent soybean futures sharply higher—the biggest move since late August—before paring gains. Trump also floated a plan to use tariff revenues to fund fresh farmer aid, though the legality remains in question. Meanwhile, the U.S.–China tariff truce expires in November, and China has yet to book any new-crop U.S. soybeans.
📉 USDA Report Suspended
The October 9th WASDE and Crop Production reports are unlikely amid the government shutdown. USDA’s site confirms the reports are suspended until further notice, leaving traders without official supply, demand, and yield estimates during a critical time.
💵 Dollar Drops Again
The U.S. dollar weakened for the 4th straight session, its longest losing streak in a month, following soft payroll data and the shutdown. Perhaps most important to ag markets: the U.S. dollar has lost nearly 14% vs. the Brazilian real this year—keeping soybeans supported above $10.
🌽 StoneX Crop Update
U.S. corn yield cut to 185.9 bpa, but production still raised to 16.74B bu due to higher acreage.
Soybean yield boosted to 53.9 bpa, production raised to 4.33B bu.
Brazil’s soybean crop pegged at 178.6 mmt, up 5% from last year with record acreage.
🍺 Ethanol Output Slips
U.S. ethanol production fell for the third straight week to 1.0M bpd. Stocks also declined, though margins remain strong across the Corn Belt at 20–60 cents positive.
✅ Stay Informed
Markets are moving fast—don’t miss critical updates!
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0:00 Leaked Texts, Argy, Soybeans
4:02 Grain Stocks
9:12 Govt Shutdown and Markets
10:39 River Levels
🇦🇷 Trump & Milei Meeting
President Trump will meet Argentine President Javier Milei on October 14. Milei is seeking a $20B US credit swap to shore up Argentina’s dollar reserves. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed negotiations are underway, but leaked texts suggest frustration — Argentina suspended grain export taxes, sold soybeans to China, and critics say US farmers are footing the bill. 📉
🌽 Corn Stocks Report
USDA pegged Sept 1 corn stocks at 1.53B bu — down 13% YoY, but 15% above trade expectations. Dec25 corn fell 6¢ to $4.16, its lowest in a month. USDA also revised the 2024 corn crop +25M bu on higher harvested acres.
🌱 Soybeans & Wheat
Soy stocks came in a bit light, yet Nov25 beans still dropped 9¢ to $10.02 on weak export demand. Wheat futures fell as stocks topped both last year and expectations. USDA projects total wheat output at 1.98B bu, with winter wheat up 3% and spring wheat down 9%. 🌾
🏛️ Partial USDA Shutdown
A government shutdown is underway — essential functions continue but most reporting halts. It’s unclear if today’s EIA report, tomorrow’s export sales, or Friday’s CFTC data will be delayed. Roughly 41% of USDA staff remain on duty.
🚢 Mississippi River Issues
Historic low water levels — for the 4th year in a row — are disrupting grain shipments. Southbound flows are down 79% in a month. Draft restrictions and tow limits cut capacity, barge freight rates are climbing, and basis levels are under pressure.
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0:00 What Will Taiwan Buy?
3:20 Grain Stocks Report Today
4:33 Harvest Update
8:24 Soybean Shipment Problem
10:25 Better Demand for Russian Wheat
11:40 Flash Sales
🌎 Welcome back! Today’s focus: US–Taiwan trade talks, USDA’s Grain Stocks report, and fresh updates on harvest & exports.
🇹🇼 US–Taiwan Trade Spotlight
USDA’s Luke Lindberg is in Taiwan this week for trade negotiations.
Meetings include the Agribusiness Trade Mission and a roundtable with US ag reps.
Taiwan is the 8th largest market for US ag exports; the US is its top supplier.
Taiwan committed to $6.4B in US corn & soybeans over 4 years and $10B in total ag buys—but this is only in line with past purchases (~$3.8B last year).
Current tariffs on Taiwanese exports to the US sit at 20%.
📊 Grain Stocks Report (Sept 1)
Corn stocks are expected to be down 24% YoY.
Soybean stocks are estimated to be down 5.6%.
Wheat stocks seen up 2.6%.
Traders eye discrepancies between pre-report estimates and USDA’s prior carryout numbers.
🌽 Crop Progress & Conditions
Corn: 66% good-to-excellent (best since 2018), 18% harvested (avg: 19%).
Soybeans: 62% good-to-excellent, 19% harvested (avg: 20%).
Winter Wheat: 34% planted (avg: 36%), the slowest pace since 2016.
🚢 US Export Inspections
Corn: 1.5mmt (60M bu) → +10% WoW, +33% YoY.
Soybeans: 594k mt (22M bu) → +5% WoW, -13% YoY.
Wheat: 739k mt (27M bu) → -21% WoW, +34% YoY.
🌾 Global Wheat Watch
Russian wheat export prices rising for 2nd week.
Exports down 29% YoY (Jul–Sep).
Harvest nearly complete at ~87mmt. Forecast trimmed to 43.4mmt exports.
📢 Flash Sales
135,660mt corn → Mexico.
110,668mt corn → Unknown (2025/26 delivery).
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0:00 Mainstream Media and Soybeans
2:52 India Ethanol Possibilities
4:52 China Soy Imports
8:16 The Funds Hate Soybeans
9:12 Grain Stocks Report
10:37 Fast Brazil Soy Planting
📰 Soybean Headlines Everywhere
Over just the past 72 hours, mainstream outlets have been buzzing about U.S. soybeans—China’s absence from the U.S. market, farmer struggles, and Trump’s trade war have taken center stage. Coverage may have been sparked by Argentina’s recent “bailout” story and simultaneous soybean sales to China.
🇮🇳 U.S.–India Trade Standoff
Talks in Washington were described as “constructive” but ended without a deal. The U.S. wants India to stop buying Russian oil, while India refuses. Instead, India offered concessions like U.S. corn purchases for ethanol. India currently produces about 2.5B gallons of ethanol (mostly from sugarcane byproducts) versus the U.S. at ~17B gallons. With E20 now hit, India could grow to 3.2–3.7B gallons within five years, though its gasoline use is still far below the U.S.
🇨🇳 China’s Soybean Imports
USDA’s Beijing attaché holds the import forecast at 106mmt—down slightly from last year. Even though U.S. beans are about 10% cheaper than Brazil’s, tariffs and politics keep them out. China has reportedly even rejected shipments disguised as non-U.S. origin.
📊 Funds Go Net Short
CFTC data shows big speculators sold 16k corn contracts, 25k soybeans (swinging back net short), and 11k SRW wheat contracts. This marks the most bearish stance in six weeks.
📈 Grain Stocks Report Ahead
USDA will release September 1 stocks on Tuesday. Corn stocks are expected to be down sharply (-24% year-on-year), soybeans down 5.6%, and wheat up 2.6%. Traders are closely watching for differences from USDA’s last carryout estimates.
🇧🇷 Brazil Planting Surge
Soybean planting is racing ahead—4.2% complete vs. just 0.5% this time last year. That’s the fastest start ever, supported by steady rains and ideal conditions.
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👨🌾 Trump’s Farmer Aid Plan
President Trump says tariff revenue will be used to fund a new aid package for farmers. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins noted the plan may resemble relief programs from Trump’s first term. Trump admitted farmers face short-term struggles but predicted long-term gains from tariffs.
🚢 China Buys Argentine Soybeans
China purchased ~40 cargoes (2.6mmt / 96 mil bu) of soybeans from Argentina in just two days after export taxes were lifted. Most shipments are set for Nov–Dec, when the US typically supplies China. So far, China hasn’t bought a single US soybean this marketing year—last year they bought 22.5mmt. Can other buyers replace lost Chinese demand?
⚖️ DOJ & USDA Investigate Farm Costs
The DOJ will team with USDA to review rising input costs like fertilizer and equipment, aiming to protect farmers from unfair pricing. Rollins also clarified there are no plans for beef producer payments, warning that government involvement distorts markets.
📊 Upcoming Grain Stocks Report
USDA’s Sept. 1 stocks report is due Tuesday. Estimates suggest corn stocks are down 24% year-over-year, soybeans down 5.6%, and wheat up 2.6%. Traders are watching how estimates compare with USDA’s recent old-crop carryout numbers.
🌍 Export Sales Update
Corn: 1.9mmt (76 mil bu), +56% from last week. Mexico led buying.
Soybeans: 724,500mt (27 mil bu), -22% from last week. Egypt top buyer.
Wheat: 539,800mt (20 mil bu), +43% from last week. Philippines led.
🔥 Drought Conditions
Latest USDA drought monitor shows:
Corn: 26% affected
Soybeans: 37%
Winter Wheat: 45%
Spring Wheat: 13%
Cattle: 24%
Drought persists in Missouri, Ohio, and Kentucky, while High Plains states saw improvement.
📢 Flash Sales
US exporters sold:
101,400mt soybean meal to Guatemala (2025/26)
312,956mt corn to Mexico (2025/26)
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0:00 "Make Argentina Great Again"
5:30 China Talks Soybeans
6:12 Production Cost Task Force
9:03 Day Trading is Stupid
11:23 Ethanol Production
12:23 Flash Sales
🇺🇸💰 US to Provide $20B Swap Line to Argentina
Washington is stepping in with a $20 billion swap line and potential bond purchases to help stabilize Argentina’s peso ahead of midterms. The peso and Argentine markets rallied on the news, but economists warn that true stability will require deeper reforms.
🌾 Argentina Export Taxes Return
After just two days, Argentina hit its $7B cap on tax-free grain and soybean exports. The government has now reinstated the suspended export tax. China bought at least 20 cargoes of Argentine soybeans during the window.
🎉 NY Gala & Milei Recognition
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent praised President Javier Milei at a gala in New York, saying Milei is working to “make Argentina great again.”
🇨🇳 China Pressures US on Tariffs
China’s commerce ministry urged the US to drop tariffs if it wants to expand soybean trade. Despite meetings with US Midwest leaders, China has yet to book US beans this marketing year.
🌽 Corn Growers Task Force
The National Corn Growers Association launched a task force to address farm profitability and rising costs. Farmers are now facing their third year of negative returns, with a fourth expected in 2026.
📈 Day Trading Rule Change
Regulators plan to scrap the $25,000 minimum for pattern day trading. The new intraday margin rule will tie buying power to positions instead. Applies only to equities, not commodities.
🍶 Ethanol Update
US ethanol output dropped to 1.02M bpd last week, down 2.9% on the week. Stocks are high, but margins remain positive across the Corn Belt. Charts below.
🚢 USDA Flash Sales
Exporters reported fresh sales of soybean meal to Guatemala and corn to Mexico for 2025/26 delivery.
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0:00 Subscribe!
0:56 Argentina Update
3:31 Argentine Crushers Aren't Happy
5:40 Secret Meeting? US/China
7:00 Trump at UN - Russia/Ukraine
9:36 USDA Cattle Plan
11:25 EU Deforestation Law
12:32 Fed Problems
🌱 China Buys Argentine Soybeans
China jumped on Argentina’s suspension of its 26% soybean export tax and purchased 10–15 cargoes for November delivery. Reports now suggest total purchases could be 20 cargoes this week alone. Normally, this business would have gone to the US, but the trade war has shifted flows. Argentina’s crushers warn that local supply is tightening, idle crushing capacity is rising, and jobs are being lost.
📈 Grain Market Reaction
Corn futures gained nearly 5 cents with Dec25 closing near $4.26. Soybeans edged higher to $10.12, while both Kansas City and Chicago wheat also finished stronger. Optimism tied to possible US-China trade progress provided a lift.
🤝 US-China Meeting
A Chinese trade envoy, Li Chenggang, met with US Midwest leaders in Beijing on Monday. Details are thin, but the meeting was confirmed by China’s Ministry of Commerce. It fueled fresh hopes for trade progress even as China avoids US soybeans.
🇺🇸 Trump’s Ukraine Shift
At the UN, Trump surprised leaders by saying Ukraine could win back land from Russia, a reversal from his earlier push for quick peace talks. This marks a potential shift in US policy, signaling stronger backing for Kyiv.
🐂 USDA Cattle Herd Plan
The USDA says it will soon launch a plan to help rebuild the US cattle herd, mentioned in a statement on screwworm control. No details yet, but the program could reshape beef supplies and pricing.
🌳 EU Deforestation Law Delay
Europe has postponed its anti-deforestation law again. The rules would restrict imports of soybeans, beef, and more. Admin hurdles and IT issues caused the delay, but costs could ripple across the supply chain once implemented.
💵 US Economy Update
Fed Chair Powell warned of upside inflation risks and downside jobs risk, leaving October’s rate decision uncertain. Tariffs are pushing prices higher, while labor supply shrinks under tighter immigration enforcement.
🌽 Flash Corn Sale
USDA reported a 5 million bushel corn sale to Mexico. Most will ship in 2025/26, with the rest in 2026/27.
👉 Don’t forget to subscribe for daily updates and drop your thoughts in the comments. Staying informed helps you stay ahead in these fast-moving markets!
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0:00 Argentina News
6:56 Crop Conditions
11:05 Brazil Update
12:04 Grain Shipments
13:00 Cattle Rally
🌎 Argentina Suspends Export Taxes
Argentina halted export taxes on corn, soybeans, wheat, and more in a bid to boost sales and stabilize the peso. The suspension runs through October or until $7B in exports are declared. Analysts warn a wave of selling could trigger a supply glut. Argentina is a top corn exporter and the world’s largest shipper of soybean meal and oil.
💵 US Steps In
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US is ready to use all necessary measures to help Argentina avoid another financial crisis after a sharp peso sell-off.
🌱 US Crop Conditions & Harvest
Corn: 66% good/excellent, the highest since 2018 for this week. 11% harvested.
Soybeans: 61% good/excellent, 9% harvested.
Winter wheat planting: 20% complete, the slowest since 2021.
Spring wheat harvest: 96% complete.
🇧🇷 Brazil Planting Update
Soybeans: 0.9% planted, matching last year. Projected record 177.7 MMT crop.
First corn crop: 25% planted, just behind last year.
🚢 Export Shipments
Corn: 1.4 MMT inspected, up 16% vs. last year.
Soybeans: 484k MT, sharply lower from last week.
Wheat: 854k MT, stronger than expected.
🐂 Cattle Futures Surge
A New World screwworm case near the US-Mexico border pushed live and feeder cattle higher, with deferred feeders locking limit-up. Imports from Mexico remain restricted, tightening US supply.
📢 Flash Corn Sale
US exporters sold 320k MT of corn to Mexico for 2025/26 delivery.
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0:00 Trump/Xi Call
1:59 Tariff Revenue for Farmer Bailout
3:41 H-1B Visa Plan
6:42 2026 Acres
8:20 China Soy Imports
9:59 The Funds
10:47 Flash Sale
11:11 Cattle on Feed
🌎 Trump & Xi Set to Meet
President Trump will meet with Xi Jinping on October 31 in South Korea after a two-hour call on Friday. The two leaders discussed trade, fentanyl, and TikTok. Trump called the talks “productive” and plans to visit China early next year. Xi will visit the US later. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent remains optimistic on a trade deal. However, no mention of soybeans hurt US prices Friday, as China has yet to buy any beans this marketing year.
💰 Farm Aid on the Table
The administration may use tariff revenue to fund a new bailout for US farmers. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins suggested an announcement could come soon. Direct government payments are already expected to reach a five-year high near $41B. The new package could resemble Trump’s $23B farm aid program from 2019.
🛂 Immigration Overhaul
Trump unveiled a sweeping immigration plan, including a $100,000 annual fee for new H-1B visas (up from ~$5,250). Renewals are not affected. The move is meant to encourage hiring of US workers, but critics warn it could hurt smaller firms and AI competitiveness. A new “gold card” residency program will also cost $1M per individual or $2M per business sponsor. Trump claims the measures will generate “hundreds of billions” to reduce debt. This could be significant for farmers relying on H-1B labor.
🌽 Crop Outlook Shifts
S&P Global projects corn acres down 4.3% next year to 94.5M, while soybean acres rise 3.6% to 84M. Wheat acres are expected at 44.6M, down 1.8%. Despite S&P’s view, farm budgets and the corn/soybean ratio currently still favor corn. Ag View Solutions estimates 2026 costs: corn at $4.61/bu vs. a $4.60 Dec26 board price; soybeans at $11.66/bu vs. a $10.66 Nov26 price.
🇨🇳 China’s Soybean Appetite
China imported a record 10.5mmt of soybeans in August, 85% from Brazil. US soybean exports to China are up 31% YTD, but traders think China is mostly uncovered for Nov–Jan, the key US window. With China using ~11mmt/month, the question is whether they’ll rely on Brazil or risk drawing down stocks.
📊 Money Flow & Sales
CFTC data shows funds trimmed net shorts:
Corn: net short 81k (smallest since May)
Soybeans: net buyers of 14k
SRW wheat: net buyers of 7k
USDA confirmed a flash sale of 206,460mt corn to unknown buyers.
🐂 Cattle on Feed
As of Sept 1:
11.1M head on feed (99% of year ago)
Placements: 1.8M (below expectations, -10% y/y)
Marketings: 1.6M (-14% y/y)
With the cow herd at a 70-year low and no Mexican imports, supplies remain tight—another bullish factor.
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0:00 Great Hair
1:03 Vessel Fees
3:28 Corn/Soy Action
7:27 Export Sales
10:38 CONAB
12:12 Corn Belt Drought and Yields
🌎 Welcome back to Grain Markets & Other Stuff!
Today we’re breaking down new US ship fees on Chinese vessels, grain market moves, export sales, and fresh drought data. Let’s dive in 👇
🚢 US Ship Fees & Grain Impact
The US will impose new fees on Chinese-built and Chinese-operated ships starting October 14.
Ships both built and operated by Chinese companies will face the highest costs.
Foreign-operated ships built in China will pay lower fees.
Bulk carriers like Panamax vessels (65,000–80,000 DWT)—which move most grain exports—are exempt, after pushback from farm groups earlier this year.
👉 Grain exports are unlikely to see major disruption.
📉 Grain Futures
Corn (Dec25) slipped to $4.24/bu.
Soybeans (Nov25) dropped to $10.38/bu.
Wheat followed lower.
Weakness tied to harvest progress, a stronger US dollar, and softer biofuel demand.
📦 Export Sales Update
Corn: 1.2 mmt (48 mbu), up 128% vs last week. Mexico led for 4th week in a row.
Soybeans: 923k mt (34 mbu), up 71%. Egypt the top buyer. Still no China purchases yet.
Wheat: 377k mt (14 mbu), near low end of expectations. Philippines the largest buyer.
🇧🇷 Brazil’s Record Crop Outlook
Soybeans: 177.7 mmt (+3.6%), acreage up 3.7%, exports up 5.1% to 112.1 mmt.
Corn: 138.3 mmt, exports up 16% to 46.5 mmt.
🌾 Drought Monitor
Corn Belt drought worsening: 37% affected, up 17% from last week.
Extreme drought in eastern Ohio & SE Missouri.
High Plains saw slight improvement in ND, SD, and KS.
USDA drought data shows:
Corn: 25%
Soybeans: 36%
Winter Wheat: 44%
Spring Wheat: 13%
Cattle: 23%
🚨 Flash Sale to Mexico
US sold 110,000 mt (4 mbu) corn for 2025/26 delivery. Corn sales are now running 68% above last year’s pace.
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0:00 Farm Bailout - How Will it Look?
4:02 Fed Rate Cut
5:42 Bearish Wheat Headlines
8:23 Canada Production
9:34 Ethanol Production
🌾 Welcome back! Today we’re covering farm aid, the Fed’s rate cut, and big moves in global wheat and canola markets.
💵 Farm Aid Push
Republican lawmakers urge Trump administration to deliver new farmer payments
USDA weighing a package similar to the $23B MFP programs of 2018–19
ECAP already paying out $10B this year
🏦 Federal Reserve Moves
Fed cuts rates for the first time since December
New range: 4%–4.25%
Labor market weakness driving the shift
Expectations for two more cuts this year
🌍 Global Wheat & Canola
Russia exploring subsidies to boost sluggish wheat exports
India’s wheat stocks at 4-year highs
Canada: biggest wheat crop since 2013, biggest canola crop since 2018
⛽ Ethanol Update
US ethanol production dips 4.5% week over week
Stocks at 22.6M barrels, down nearly 5% from last year
Margins remain positive across the Corn Belt
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🌾 Welcome back! Today we’re diving into big moves in the currency, grain, gold, and policy worlds—and what they mean for agriculture and global markets.
💵 US Dollar Weakness
The US dollar tumbled to multi-year lows as markets brace for a potential Fed rate cut. A weaker dollar is giving commodities a lift, but stronger-than-expected retail sales could temper the Fed’s dovish tone. See charts on the US Dollar Index, USD/BRL, and Bloomberg Commodity Index.
🌏 Trade & Tariffs
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled fresh US-China trade talks are coming. If no deal is reached, President Trump’s tariffs (34% baseline, up to 60% effective) will take effect November 10. Last year’s $300B trade deficit with China is expected to shrink by 30% this year. Notably, China has yet to purchase US soybeans this marketing year.
🌽🌱🌾 Grain Futures Rally
Corn, soybeans, and wheat all moved higher Tuesday:
Corn near $4.30
Soybeans near $10.50
Wheat higher for the 4th straight session
Drivers: weak USD, smaller crop worries, and optimism over export demand.
🧪 Fertilizer Research Act
Senators Grassley, Baldwin, and Ernst reintroduced bipartisan legislation directing USDA to study fertilizer pricing and competition. Fertilizer now accounts for ~36% of corn farmers’ costs. The bill has backing from NCGA and ASA.
🥇 Gold at Record Highs
Gold surged past $3,700/oz—its strongest run since 1979. Hedge funds and ETFs are piling in, with stagflation and global instability adding fuel.
⛽ Biofuel Policy Updates
The EPA is weighing proposals to reallocate waived blending requirements from the Small Refinery Exemption program. Options:
50% reallocation (2023–2025)
100% reallocation (2026–2027)
Public comment runs through October 31.
👉 Don’t forget to subscribe for daily updates, drop a comment with your take on the Fed’s next move, and hit the bell 🔔 so you never miss a market shift!
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0:00 Direct Payments
4:12 US/China Talks
5:45 Brazil Soy Planting Starts
8:17 Crop Progress/Conditions
10:13 NOPA Soy Crush
11:19 Tyson and High-Fructose Corn Syrup
13:26 Grain Shipments are Strong
14:31 Flash Sale
🌾 Welcome back! Today we’re covering fresh updates on farm aid, trade talks, crop conditions, and global markets.
💰 USDA Aid & Farm Support
USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said the agency is weighing another round of farmer payments this fall. Rising input costs, weak markets, and stalled trade talks with China are driving the conversation. Past programs (MFP & ECAP) totaled more than $30B combined, and this round could land near $10B—or higher.
🌍 Trade & China Update
President Trump will speak with President Xi on Friday after trade meetings in Madrid. While talks were “very good,” China has yet to book any US soybeans this marketing year. Trump may lean on direct payments to farmers unless a favorable deal emerges.
🌱 Brazil Planting & Production
Brazilian farmers are just starting soybean planting—0.12% complete vs. 0.06% last year. AgRural projects a record 176.7mmt soybean crop, while USDA pegs corn at 131mmt. Dry weather could slow progress.
🌽 US Crop Progress & Conditions
Corn: 67% G/E rating (highest since 2018 for the week), 7% harvested.
Soybeans: 63% G/E, 5% harvested—slightly behind LY but ahead of avg.
Wheat: Winter wheat planting 11% (vs. 13% avg), spring wheat harvest 94%.
🏭 Crush & Processing
NOPA August crush: 189.81M bu—record for August, +20% YoY, above trade expectations. Soybean oil stocks fell to 1.245B lbs, the lowest since Dec 2024.
🍗 Tyson & Corn Syrup
Tyson will phase out high-fructose corn syrup, sucralose, and dyes by year-end under the “Make America Healthy Again” initiative. Corn syrup accounts for ~3% of US corn demand. One study suggests Tyson’s feed needs cover 10M acres of corn & soy.
🚢 Exports & Sales
US corn shipments: 1.5mmt (60M bu), +167% YoY. Soybeans: 804k mt (30M bu), +70% YoY. Wheat: 755k mt (28M bu), +28% YoY. Plus, USDA announced a flash sale of 6M bu of corn to unknown buyers.
👉 Stay tuned, drop your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to subscribe for the latest ag market insights!
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0:00 USDA and Corn Rally
6:10 The Funds
8:26 US/China Talks to Resume
9:39 USDA Reporting Problems
11:12 Rare Soybean Oil Sale
🌽 USDA Shakes Up Corn & Soybeans
US corn acreage is projected to be the largest since 1936. On Friday, USDA raised its estimate by 1.5% to 98.7 million acres. Despite a lower average yield projection of 186.7 bpa, the agency still forecasts a record 16.8 billion bushel corn crop. Ending stocks were trimmed slightly to 2.1 billion bushels but remain the highest since 2018/19.
For soybeans, yield was lowered to 53.5 bpa, but acreage revisions lifted production to 4.3 billion bushels. Exports were cut due to the ongoing US–China trade war, pushing ending stocks higher. If confirmed, USDA’s corn crop estimate would beat the previous record (2023) by a massive 9.6%.
📉 Funds Add to Shorts
CFTC’s weekly Commitment of Traders report showed money managers were net sellers:
Corn: -4k contracts
Soybeans: -25k contracts (largest net short since mid-August)
SRW Wheat: -10k contracts
🤝 US–China Trade Talks
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent meets with Vice Premier He Lifeng this week in Madrid. The talks aim to lay the groundwork for a deal: China purchases in exchange for tariff relief. This comes as the 90-day tariff truce nears expiration in early November. So far, China hasn’t bought a single bushel of US soybeans for the current marketing year.
🇨🇳 Export Sales Twist
Last week’s reported “sale” of 2 million bushels of soybeans to China actually dated back to January, highlighting USDA reporting issues amid budget cuts and staffing problems. For comparison, China bought 26.8 mmt ($12.6B) of US beans last season.
🛢 Soybean Oil Surprise
USDA reported a flash sale of 22,000 mt soybean oil to South Korea for 25/26 delivery—the first of the year. Flash sales of oil are rare given domestic biofuel demand.
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0:00 Building Drought
6:13 USDA Preview
9:41 Export Sales
12:21 Brazil's Crop Report
14:20 Inflation is Up
🌽 Welcome back! Today we’re covering drought updates, USDA’s big monthly reports, export sales, Brazil’s latest production numbers, and fresh inflation data. Let’s dive in 👇
🌦 Weather & Drought Monitor
USDA’s weekly drought monitor shows worsening dryness across much of the Corn Belt. Missouri, Illinois, and Ohio saw notable deterioration, while Iowa and Minnesota posted smaller declines. About 20% of the region is now in drought, up 6% from last week. North Dakota remains the most drought-free state in the country.
Corn: 13% affected
Soybeans: 22%
Winter Wheat: 38%
Spring Wheat: 13%
Cattle: 18%
📊 Crop Production & WASDE Preview
USDA releases its September Crop Production and WASDE reports today at 11am CST. Traders expect lower corn and soybean yields, though both are still projected at record highs.
Corn & soy yields expected to be down on dryness/disease
US ending stocks seen slightly lower
Global corn/soy stocks edging down, wheat up
🚢 Export Sales
US corn, soybean, and wheat export sales were all disappointing last week:
Corn: 539,900 mt (down 74%)—Mexico top buyer
Soybeans: 541,100 mt (down 34%)—Unknown destinations top buyer
Wheat: 305,400 mt (down 2%)—Japan top buyer
🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Update (Conab)
Conab raised estimates again:
Corn: record 139.7 mmt
Soybeans: record 171.5 mmt
Soy exports: 106.7 mmt, driven by China
Brazilian farmers are wrapping up safrinha harvest and starting first-crop planting.
📈 Economy & CPI
US consumer prices rose 2.9% YoY in August, the highest since January. Food led gains with meat and eggs up sharply. Trump’s tariffs may be adding to pressure. Markets expect Fed rate cuts in September, October, and possibly December.
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0:00 Intro
0:49 USDA Preview
3:38 Argentina Situation
7:22 Positive (ish) Soybean Spin
10:11 Biofuel Back and Forth
12:15 Ethanol Production
🌽 Welcome back! Big USDA Report Tomorrow 🌽
📊 Crop Production & WASDE Preview
The USDA releases its monthly Crop Production and WASDE report Friday at 11am CST. Traders expect corn and soybean yield/production cuts, though both remain at record highs. Soybean exports could be trimmed again, with China still absent from the US market. Carryout projections: US corn, soybeans, and wheat are all expected to decline slightly; global wheat is seen higher. The big ticket items tomorrow are US corn and soybean yield estimates—this month USDA adds objective yield data into the mix.
🇦🇷 Argentina Outlook
Rosario Exchange pegs corn production at 61mmt, record-large if rainfall is adequate. 2024/25 outlook also boosted to 50mmt. Soybean acreage expected down 7%, with production forecast at 47mmt vs. 49.5mmt last year. Buenos Aires Exchange also sees lower acreage, down 4.3%.
🇨🇳 China’s Snub of US Soybeans
China booked 7.5mmt of October soybeans—95% from Brazil. At this time last year, they had 12–13mmt from the US. Despite US beans being cheaper, the 23% tariff adds $2/bu, keeping them uncompetitive. Analysts warn US farmers could lose 14–16mmt of soybean sales if China waits until mid-November. Still, USDA projects US exports only -9% YoY, thanks to other global buyers stepping in.
⛽ Biofuels & Policy Uncertainty
Trump’s new biofuel plan rattled the market, with concerns refiners may only face partial obligations. Senator Mike Lee’s bill adds more uncertainty. Biofuel shares (Bunge, ADM, Valero, and Green Plains) tumbled; RIN prices hit their lowest since June.
🍶 Ethanol Production & Margins
US ethanol output hit 1.1mil bpd, the strongest for this week in a decade. Stocks rose to 22.8mil barrels. Margins remain strong, anywhere from +20c to +60c across the Corn Belt, supported by low corn prices.
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0:00 Ag Economy
6:57 Soybean Hit Piece
9:58 SREs
11:15 Grain Standards Act
12:13 Cattle Selloff
14:03 BLS Data (Jobs)
💰 Ag Economy Crisis
AgWeb reports farmers nationwide are facing collapsing margins.
At a September 2 meeting in Arkansas, 400+ farmers called bailouts ineffective and skewed toward corporate players.
Monopolistic control in seed, fertilizer, and chemical markets is trapping farmers while corporations profit.
Bankruptcy risks are spiking, with 25–40% of farms in some regions projected to fail.
Leaders demand reforms: antitrust enforcement, merger freezes, lobbying limits, and greater market diversification.
🌱 Soybean Disaster
China still hasn’t purchased a single US soybean this marketing year.
Typically, China takes more than 25% of US soybean exports.
Ongoing trade tensions push China toward Brazil.
Prices are now below production costs—half a million American farmers are at risk.
Agriculture supports nearly 19% of US GDP and 1M+ jobs.
Industry leaders are calling for immediate trade resolutions.
⚡ Biofuels Battle
Senators from oil-producing states introduced the Protect Consumers from Reallocation Costs Act of 2025.
Would block the EPA from reallocating blending obligations from small refineries to larger ones.
Biofuel groups argue this rewards small refineries and weakens renewable fuel policy.
A reallocation of exemptions would be devastating to the ethanol industry.
🌾 Grain Standards Act
The House passed the US Grain Standards Reauthorization Act of 2025.
Extends the inspection and grading system through 2030.
Pushes USDA toward tech upgrades for better accuracy.
Ensures fair pricing for farmers and buyer confidence abroad.
The Senate must approve before the end of September to avoid $70M/day losses.
🥩 Cattle Market Correction
Cattle futures saw the steepest correction since June.
Feeder cattle limit down across nearly all contracts.
Driven by payroll data revisions showing a weaker consumer outlook.
Trump’s weekend comments on falling beef prices added pressure.
📉 Jobs Data Shock
BLS is expected to revise payrolls lower by 911,000 jobs.
Cuts average monthly growth nearly in half from previous reports.
Weak labor data strengthens the case for a Fed rate cut next week.
Final revisions are due early 2026.
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0:00 China Imports
5:26 Crop Progress
9:21 Brazil Planting Begins
10:57 Russia Wheat
11:54 Grain Shipments
🌎 Welcome back! Today we’re breaking down key moves in global grain markets.
📊 China Soybean Demand
China ramped up soybean purchases in August, bringing in a record 12.3mmt for the month. Stockpiles now sit at 6.8mmt—the highest since March. While the US export window is just opening, China continues to rely heavily on Brazil amid the ongoing US-China trade war.
🌽 US Corn & Soy Conditions
Corn ratings slipped slightly, with 68% good/excellent vs. 69% last week, still the best since 2018. 4% of the crop is harvested vs. 3% average. Soybean ratings dipped to 64% g/e, the lowest of the year. 21% of beans are dropping leaves—a touch ahead of average.
🌾 Wheat Update
Spring wheat harvest is 85% complete, nearly in line with average. Winter wheat planting is just getting started at 5%, steady with last year.
🇧🇷 Brazil Planting Pace
AgRural reports 12% of first corn crop planted, behind last year’s 15%. Soybean planting has just begun at 0.2%. USDA projects 131mmt corn and 175mmt soybeans for Brazil this season.
🇷🇺 Russia’s Bigger Wheat Crop
Sovecon lifted its wheat estimate to 86.1mmt, matching IKAR’s latest call. Black Sea production strength continues to weigh on global wheat prices.
🚢 Export Inspections
Corn: 1.4mmt (57m bu)—up 70% vs. last year 📈
Soybeans: 452k mt (17m bu)—+24% y/y
Wheat: 425k mt (16m bu)—down sharply w/w
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0:00 Freeze
1:35 Unknown Buys Soybeans
2:43 Export Sales
8:35 Monster Corn Yield Estimate
9:56 The Funds
10:59 Job Growth Slows
🌽🌱 Welcome back! Today we’re breaking down weekend weather risks, fresh export sales, and market reaction.
❄️ Weekend Freeze Event
Some US corn and soybean areas saw freezing temps early Sunday morning across North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, and western Nebraska. The extent of crop damage is still unclear, but markets are shrugging it off with lackluster trade to start the week. See maps below, and please share any local details you have—past/observed weather info is much harder to pin down than forecasts!
🚢 Export Sales Update
USDA reported two Friday flash sales: 327,650mt (12mil bu) of soybeans to unknown destinations for 25/26 delivery.
Accumulated sales are down 32% YoY, with “Unknown” now 41% of all new-crop soybean export sales.
China still hasn’t booked a single bushel for 25/26. While some “Unknown” could be China, a weak Northern Plains basis suggests no major PNW program yet.
New crop corn sales hit 2.1mmt (83mil bu), near the high end of expectations. Mexico was the top buyer.
Soybean sales (818,500mt) were down 40% WoW; wheat sales (313,000mt) missed expectations, with Nigeria as the top buyer. See charts below.
🌾 Crop Estimates
S&P Global pegs yields at 189.1bpa for corn (16.77bbu) and 53.8bpa for soybeans (4.31 bbu)—record-large crops. These numbers are slightly above USDA’s latest estimates but higher than StoneX’s more cautious outlook. USDA updates its official estimates this Friday.
📊 Fund Positioning
CFTC data shows:
Funds trimmed corn shorts again, buying 16k contracts. Net short now 95k, the smallest since May.
Funds sold 8k soybean contracts and 417 SRW wheat contracts.
💼 Macro Headlines
US job growth slowed in August with just +22,000 jobs (vs. 75k expected). Unemployment ticked up to 4.3%, the highest since 2021. June was revised to a loss of 13k jobs—the first monthly decline since 2020. Analysts see this soft labor market reinforcing expectations for a Fed rate cut next week.
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0:00 US/Japan Deal
5:17 Rollins Comments
7:53 Corn/Soybean Charts
10:37 StoneX Estimates
14:23 Drought Expands
15:53 Biofuel Imports
🇺🇸🤝🇯🇵 Trump–Japan Trade Deal
Trump signed a deal with Japan that slaps a 15% tariff on Japanese imports.
Tokyo agreed to a $550B U.S. investment fund—Trump says he can use it “however he wants,” but no details yet.
Japan also pledged $8B annually in U.S. ag purchases (corn, soybeans).
For comparison: the 2020 U.S.–China “Phase One” deal had ~$40B/year in ag buys.
🌽🌱 Ag Market Impact
Japan bought 512M bushels of U.S. corn in the 24/25 marketing year—2nd only to Mexico.
Last season: $2.8B corn and $998M soybeans from the U.S.
This new pledge could be a major boost for U.S. farmers.
📉 StoneX Crop Outlook
Corn yield cut to 186.9 bpa (down from 188.1), but acreage boost lifts production to 16.58B bu.
Soybean yield trimmed to 53.2 bpa with production lowered to 4.26B bu.
The ongoing survey methodology dates back to 1993.
🌦️ USDA Drought Update
Corn Belt drought expands slightly: Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Missouri, plus parts of Iowa & Minnesota.
Current drought coverage: Corn 9%, Soybeans 16%, Winter Wheat 34%, Spring Wheat 13%, Cattle 18%.
Some relief in Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota with scattered showers.
🛢️🌱 Biofuels & Policy Shift
U.S. biodiesel imports down 94%; renewable diesel imports down 85% (lowest since 2012).
Cause: the new 45Z tax credit only applies to domestic biofuels (replacing the old $1/gal blender’s credit).
Positive for U.S. soybean oil & ethanol — less foreign competition ahead.
📢 Stay Informed
Big changes are underway in trade, policy, and farm markets. Don’t miss a beat — hit subscribe and drop your thoughts in the comments!
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0:00 USDA's Dire Forecast
4:10 Trump Comments
7:06 Corn/Soybean Selloff
9:22 Polymarket and CFTC
10:59 SAF Future Looks Poor
12:20 Flash Sale
🌾 Farm Economy & Receipts
USDA projects US crop receipts to decline in 2025, led by weaker returns for soybeans, corn, and wheat. Total receipts are expected at $236.6B, down 2.5% from 2024. Meanwhile, direct government payments are set to surge 300% to $40.5B. On the livestock side, cattle receipts are forecast up nearly 16%, while hogs climb almost 10%.
🌍 Trump vs. China, Russia & North Korea
President Trump accused China of conspiring with Russia and North Korea following their high-profile military parade in Beijing. Xi, Putin, and Kim stood together at the event, but Trump downplayed the threat—reminding supporters that “China needs us more than we need them.”
📉 Corn & Soybeans Slide
Corn and soybean futures pulled back midweek after recent rallies. Dec25 corn closed at $4.18, down 5 cents, while Nov25 soybeans slipped nearly 10 cents to $10.32. Losses came despite USDA reporting weaker crop condition ratings.
💻 Crypto & Prediction Markets
Polymarket scored a major win with CFTC approval to legally operate in the US. The no-action letter exempts the platform from certain costly reporting requirements, clearing the way for more growth in prediction markets.
🛢️ Shell Cancels Biofuels Project
Shell announced it will not restart construction of its massive Rotterdam biofuels facility, citing weak demand and global oversupply. This follows similar moves by BP and even Southwest Airlines, raising questions about the future of SAF and corn ethanol’s role in aviation fuel.
🚢 Soybean Meal Flash Sale
US exporters sold 185,000mt of soybean cake & meal to the Philippines. Total flash sales for this marketing year now stand at 455,000mt.
✅ Stay informed with daily updates on ag markets, policy, and global news. Don’t forget to subscribe and drop a comment with your thoughts below!
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0:00 Corn and Soybean Problems
5:47 Farmer Sentiment
9:24 Soybean Ratings Decline
11:12 Trump Appeal
12:02 Wheat is Broken
13:56 Soybean Shipping Problems Imminent
🌽📉 Welcome back! Today we’re diving into a BIG Wall Street Journal feature on U.S. corn & soybean production—and what it means for farmers, markets, and global trade.
📊 Production & Oversupply
Advances in tech and policy have fueled massive yields. Despite planting fewer acres in 2024 than 100 years ago, U.S. farmers produced 729% more corn. The downside? Oversupply has dragged prices lower and cut into profitability.
🌍 Global Trade Shifts
For decades, U.S. farmers relied on expanding demand overseas. But tariffs, trade disputes, and shifting policy have shut doors. Meanwhile, Brazil has overtaken the U.S. as the world’s top corn & soybean exporter, thanks to abundant farmland and modern logistics.
😟 Farmer Sentiment
Purdue/CME’s Ag Economy Barometer fell for the third straight month. Farmers cite higher input costs, rising loan concerns, and weaker future expectations.
🌱 Crop Conditions
Soybeans dropped to 65% good-to-excellent, the lowest rating of the year so far. Corn slipped too but still holds one of the best ratings in the past decade. Harvest is quickly approaching, with maturity advancing faster than average.
⚖️ Policy & Tariffs
President Trump is pushing for a Supreme Court ruling on tariffs after a federal court deemed parts of his previous tariffs illegal. The outcome could reshape global trade flows.
🌾 Wheat & Exports
Russia’s wheat export outlook keeps climbing, while U.S. wheat export sales are the best in 10 years for this point in the season. Corn and soybean shipments also impressed, staying near the high end of expectations.
💬Drop your thoughts in the comments—are U.S. farmers falling behind Brazil for good?
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🌽📈 Corn & Soybean Futures Rally
Corn and soybean futures ended Friday on a strong note! The Dec25 corn contract jumped about 10 cents to $4.20/bu—its best daily move since early July—while Nov25 soybeans gained 7 cents to $10.55/bu. Traders cited strong global demand, disease worries in the Corn Belt (tar spot & southern rust), and fresh chatter about Chinese buying. 🌏🇨🇳
🌡️❄️ Weather Watch
Frost risk later this week in Minnesota & Wisconsin 🌬️🥶
Overnight GFS points to lows in the mid-30s Thursday & Saturday
August went down as one of the driest in 133 years for parts of OH, KY, IN, IL, MO & TN. 🌾☀️
📜⚖️ Tariffs & Trade
A federal appeals court struck down a large chunk of Trump’s tariffs, ruling he overstepped authority under IEEPA. The decision could force repayment of billions in duties and calls into question past trade deals. Appeals are already in motion, with a Supreme Court fight likely. 🇺🇸⚖️
Meanwhile, China’s envoy Li Chenggang met with US officials in DC. No details released, but China is boosting soybean imports from Argentina & Uruguay—still no official new-crop US purchases. 🚢🌎
🚜💰 Farm Progress Show Recap
Farmers are under pressure: weak markets, rising input costs, sluggish soybean exports. Corn export sales remain solid, but soybeans lag badly without Chinese demand. Fertilizer & equipment costs continue to squeeze margins. Josh Linville joins today’s premium video to break down fertilizer prices. 🌱💸
📊📉 Fund Flows (CFTC Data)
Funds bought 4k corn, 21k soybeans & 17k SRW wheat contracts
Net long in soybeans now largest since late June 🌟
🇧🇷🌽 Brazil Crop Update
AgRural reports 7% of first-crop corn was planted as of last Thursday, up 4% from the prior week. USDA projects 131 mmt this season. Hot & dry weather is still a factor, but rains are forecast next week to aid planting. 🌦️
✅ Don’t forget to like 👍, subscribe 🔔, and drop your thoughts in the comments!
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0:00 How Much Does This Suck?
1:20 Fertilizer Prices and Tariffs
6:23 US/China Meeting
10:04 Export Sales
12:18 Declining River Levels
15:09 Drought and Yield Potential
💸 Fertilizer Costs & Tariffs
Tight supplies and tariffs have pushed fertilizer prices to their highest level relative to grain and oilseed futures since 2016. While Canadian potash is tariff-free under USMCA, imports from countries like Qatar and Saudi Arabia face added costs. Senator Chuck Grassley says cutting tariffs would bring quick relief, while the Trump administration is pushing to label potash a critical mineral to boost domestic production. 📈
🌏 China Trade Talks
Chinese trade envoy Li Chenggang is in Washington for meetings with US trade and Treasury officials. While not part of formal negotiations, this visit follows his Canada trip and signals continued dialogue. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says "everything is on the table," but Beijing has yet to book new-crop US soybeans despite Trump’s push earlier this month. 🇨🇳🇺🇸
📊 Export Sales Update
• Corn: 2.1mmt (82m bu), down from last week but still strong. Mexico the top buyer.
• Soybeans: 1.4mmt (50m bu), above expectations — "unknown" buyers lead the way.
• Wheat: 579,800mt (21m bu), steady with recent trends. Vietnam the biggest buyer.
🌊 Mississippi River Woes
River levels at Memphis are forecast to fall 3–4 feet below normal by mid-month, raising fears of another costly harvest shipping season. Limited rainfall in the Ohio River Valley is adding pressure. 🚢
🌦 Drought Monitor
USDA reports drought expansion across Ohio, Kentucky, Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri. Some relief in the High Plains, while Michigan saw improvements.
Corn 🌽: 5% in drought
Soybeans 🌱: 11%
Winter Wheat 🌾: 31%
Spring Wheat 🌾: 13%
Cattle 🐄: 15%
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0:00 More Farm Aid?
5:05 More China Soybean News
9:14 Vietnam Ethanol
10:58 Mexico/China
11:53 S&P Record High
🚜 USDA “Bridge” Policy in the Works
Deputy Ag Secretary Stephen Vaden says USDA is exploring a short-term “bridge” policy to help farmers weather low crop prices. With ARC, PLC, and enhanced crop insurance not set to kick in until 2026, the CCC fund (to be replenished in November) could provide relief—similar to past trade war payments.
🌍 China Still Snubbing US Soybeans
Despite a ~20% premium, China continues to lean on Brazil’s soybeans while avoiding US new-crop supplies. The nation is also importing more Argentine meal and cutting feed usage. Traders are debating whether China can cover a 20–25mmt gap if they keep sidelining US beans.
🇻🇳 Vietnam Goes All-In on E10
Vietnam will fully shift to E10 gasoline in 2026, cutting its ethanol import tariff and pledging $2B in additional US ag imports. With domestic plants only covering ~40% of demand, US corn & ethanol could see a boost.
🍶 US Ethanol Snapshot
Weekly ethanol output slipped to 1.07mbpd, while stocks dropped to the lowest of the year at 22.5m barrels. Margins remain strong thanks to cheap corn.
🇲🇽 Mexico Joins the Tariff Game
Mexico plans tariffs on Chinese goods as part of its 2026 budget—aligning with Trump’s request to counter cheap imports. This could reshape North American trade ahead of next year’s USMCA review.
📈 Wall Street at Record Highs
The S&P 500 closed at a record, powered by Nvidia’s blowout earnings and ongoing AI demand. Dow and Nasdaq also posted gains.
💬 What do you think—will USDA step in with real aid, or will low prices linger into 2026? Drop your thoughts in the comments!
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0:00 "Flash Drought"
3:50 Price Action and Charts
5:24 US/China Trade Talks
8:59 Renewable Investments
10:21 Russia's Wheat Crop Keeps Getting Bigger
🌽 Welcome back! Today we’re breaking down the latest on crop weather, grain markets, trade talks, energy policy, and global wheat supplies.
☀️ Weather & Crops
Dryness is intensifying across the southern & eastern Corn Belt and the Delta. Ohio is experiencing its driest August in 133 years. Flash drought concerns are building in parts of southern IL, MO, western TN, AR, and LA. Forecasts show very little rain ahead, keeping stress high for corn & soybeans. 🌵
📉 Grain Markets
Corn futures slipped back toward $4.10, soybeans ticked higher to $10.50, and wheat was mixed. Traders are balancing record crop expectations against the risk of weather stress. Holiday-weekend trade + month-end positioning = extra volatility. 📊
🇺🇸🇨🇳 US–China Trade Talks
Talks resume in Washington, D.C. this week with Li Chenggang meeting U.S. trade & Treasury officials. Soybeans are front and center—but China wants tariff relief tied to fentanyl trade before making major purchases. Farmers are watching closely for export sales. 🚢
⚡ Renewable Energy
U.S. renewable investments fell 36% in the first half of the year. Wind & solar projects dropped sharply after Trump’s subsidy rollbacks. Last week, he said his administration will no longer approve new wind & solar projects. Big shakeup for the energy sector. 🌬️☀️
🌾 Russia Wheat Outlook
Consultancy IKAR raised Russia’s wheat crop forecast to 86mmt and boosted export expectations to 43mmt. Despite a slight rebound, Chicago wheat remains near four-year lows, with Russia set to dominate exports again in 25/26. 🌍
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0:00 The Biggest / The Largest
1:28 North Dakota Soybean Mess
5:06 WSJ Farm Piece
7:59 Brazil Corn Update
9:22 Crop Ratings
12:26 Grain Shipments
🌎 China Trade War Pressures Soybeans
The ongoing trade war with China continues to squeeze US soybean demand and crush basis levels. 🚢 With no Chinese buying, Northern Plains farmers face cash bids under $9/bu as PNW export demand dries up. Elevators are slashing bids, leaving some of the weakest basis since 2018.
📉 Market Stress & Farmer Struggles
The Wall Street Journal highlights farmer challenges: record crops 🌽🌱 but poor prices and rising costs mean profits are slim to none. Analysts warn breakeven corn prices could rise toward $4.66–$4.94/bu next year. Relief may hinge on the new Farm Bill or the $59B farm safety net in the One Big Beautiful Bill.
🇧🇷 Brazil Corn Update
Brazil’s second corn harvest is 98% complete, with slow farmer selling and strong domestic demand. Early planting of next year’s crop is slightly behind schedule, but forecasts call for favorable rains. US corn remains cheaper by $9/ton on the global market, keeping exports competitive.
🌽 US Crop Conditions
Corn: 71% good/excellent 👍 (2nd best in 10 years)
Soybeans: 69% good/excellent 🌱 (best since 2020)
Spring wheat: 49% good/excellent, well below average ❌
Winter wheat harvest: 98% complete ✅
🚢 Export Inspections
Corn: 51M bu (+39% YoY)
Soybeans: 14M bu (down from last week)
Wheat: 35M bu (+71% YoY)
👉 Don’t forget to subscribe for daily updates and drop a comment with your take on the markets. 💬👊
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0:00 Corn Yield Clash
3:59 Biofuel Waivers
5:48 China Rhetoric
9:05 The Funds are Buying?
9:51 Powell Jackson Hole
10:52 Cattle on Feed
12:25 Flash Sales
🌽🚜 Big Week in Ag Markets!
✨ Pro Farmer wrapped up its crop tour with national yield estimates. Corn came in at 182.7 bpa (16.2B bu) vs USDA’s 188.8 bpa (16.7B bu), while soybeans were pegged at 53 bpa (4.2B bu) vs USDA’s 53.6 bpa (4.3B bu). Scouts saw huge variability—strong crops in the west but dryness and disease pressure in the east. 📊🌱
⚡ Biofuel Shock: EPA granted 63 full & 77 partial refinery waivers, sending soybean oil futures up nearly 4%. Still no clarity on reallocation for big refiners until 2023—keeping biofuel markets on edge. ⛽🌻
🇨🇳 Trade Tensions: China says U.S. protectionism is hurting farm trade. With U.S. ag exports to China cut by more than half this year, soybeans are feeling the brunt. Beijing calls farmland purchase limits “political,” while U.S. lawmakers say it’s about security. 🌎⚖️
📉 Fund Moves: CFTC data showed money managers trimming corn shorts—the smallest since May. Funds were net buyers of 28k corn & 24k soybeans but net sellers of SRW wheat. 💼📊
💵 Macro Watch: Fed Chair Powell hinted at a September rate cut during Jackson Hole. Stocks surged, the dollar fell, and traders are betting on an 87% chance of a quarter-point cut. 📉🏦📈
🐂 Cattle on Feed: August 1 inventory at 10.9M head, 98% of last year. Placements were higher than expected but still 6% below 2024 levels. Overall tone = slightly bearish. 🐄📉
🚢 Flash Sales: USDA reported corn sales of 5M bu to Costa Rica and 6M bu to Spain for 2025/26 delivery. 🌍📦
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0:00 Biofuel Rumor Rally
4:18 Crop Tour and USDA
8:37 Export Sales
13:30 Drought Monitor
15:53 USDA Funding Cuts
🌽🚜 Grain Market Update: Biofuel Battles, Record Crops & Export Surprises! 🌎📈
🔥 Big EPA Decision Coming Today
The EPA is expected to rule on 195 small refinery exemption (SRE) requests this afternoon. Traders are buzzing after yesterday’s rally in corn, soybeans, and soybean oil—many believe someone knows something ahead of the news. A supplemental rule could also drop next week to decide if big refiners must reallocate exempted gallons, a move farm groups strongly support and oil refiners strongly oppose. 💥⚖️
🌱 Pro Farmer Crop Tour – Minnesota & Iowa Results
Scouts found record-breaking crops in both states:
🌽 Minnesota corn pegged at 199.6 bpa, smashing the old record & up 23% from last year!
🌱 Minnesota soybeans also set a new all-time pod count record.
🌽 Iowa corn estimated at 198.4 bpa, with soybeans also setting a tour record.
Final national results from the tour are expected today. 📊
🚢 Export Sales – Big Corn Business
US corn exports were 🔥 last week at 2.9 mmt (113 mil bushels), a massive 40% jump from the week prior. Unknown destinations led the charge. Soybean sales were also strong at 1.1 mmt, though China remains absent. Wheat sales lagged, with Mexico as the top buyer.
🌦️ Drought Monitor Update
Dry weather tightened conditions across the Eastern Corn Belt (Ohio, Kentucky, Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri). North Dakota improved, while Kansas & Oklahoma worsened slightly.
Current US drought exposure:
🌽 Corn – 5%
🌱 Soybeans – 9%
🌾 Winter Wheat – 31%
🌾 Spring Wheat – 14%
🐄 Cattle – 15%
🏛️ USDA News
The USDA plans to close the Beltsville Agricultural Research Center, a move critics warn could disrupt vital research. Meanwhile, NASS, the agency behind crop estimates, faces budget cuts and staffing shortages, raising questions about future reporting accuracy.
👉 Don’t forget to like 👍, subscribe 🔔, and drop a comment 💬 with your thoughts on today’s EPA ruling and crop tour results!
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0:00 Crop Tour Update
4:21 CME / Fanduel Casino
7:32 Russia Wheat Update
10:21 Cattle Surge Again
12:14 Fed Minutes
13:59 Ethanol Production
14:46 Flash Sale
🌽 Pro Farmer Crop Tour – Big Updates! 🌱
The tour released results from Illinois and western Iowa:
Illinois corn came in at 199.6 bpa, the 2nd-highest in tour history, just shy of last year. 🌽
Soybeans set a new record for pod counts, up 4.2% vs. last year. 🌱
Western Iowa crops look strong, with corn yields 10% above the 3-year avg. and soybean pod counts up 18%! 🚜
But disease concerns could still limit final yield potential.
📊 Markets Meet Gambling?
FanDuel is teaming up with CME to launch regulated betting contracts tied to:
S&P 500, Nasdaq, oil, gas, gold, crypto 💹
Key economic indicators like GDP & CPI 📈
Founders of the CBOT (1848) might be rolling in their graves over this one…
🌾 Global Wheat Watch
Sovecon raised Russia’s wheat crop outlook to 85.4mmt 🌍. Good weather in Siberia & the Urals boosted yields, but export logistics remain a challenge.
🐂 Cattle Rally Continues
Cattle futures hit new highs as supplies remain tight and demand strong. USDA says no to Mexican feeder imports due to disease risk. Beef values hold near record levels. 🥩
💵 Fed vs. Inflation
Fed officials see inflation (fueled by tariffs) as the bigger risk vs. jobs. Rates stay at 4.3%, unemployment is up to 4.2%, and inflation just hit a 3-year high. ⚖️
⛽ Ethanol Snapshot
Output: 1.07M bpd (down 2% on the week)
Stocks: 22.69M barrels
Margins remain strong thanks to cheap corn. 🌽
🚢 US Export Sales
US exporters reported new corn sales:
100k mt to Colombia 🇨🇴
125k mt to Mexico 🇲🇽
👉 Stay tuned for charts, graphics, and deeper breakdowns in the corn 🌽, soybean 🌱, wheat 🌾, and cattle 🐂 sections below!
🔥 Don’t forget to subscribe & drop a comment with your take on these market moves!
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0:00 Soybean Farmers Need a Trade Deal
3:50 Crop Tour Day 2
8:29 Eastern Corn Belt Dryness
10:36 "Small" Refinery Exemptions
12:28 Brazil Soy Cartel
13:43 Flash Sale
🌱 Soybean Farmers Sound the Alarm
The American Soybean Association is urging President Trump to secure a trade deal with China. In a letter to the White House, the ASA president warned that growers are on the brink of a financial crisis 🚨. With zero new crop soybean sales to China, export commitments are the second-lowest in a decade. Normally, China buys about 14% of its US soybean needs before harvest—but not this year. If China stays out, no other buyers can fill the gap. 📉
🌽 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Results
Scouts released their Indiana & Nebraska findings yesterday:
Indiana corn yield pegged at 193.8 bpa, a new tour record 🌟
Nebraska corn yield at 179.5 bpa, the best in 4 years 🌽
Soybean pod counts mixed: Indiana slightly lower vs. last year, Nebraska up 15%—a record 🚀
☀️ Dry Eastern Corn Belt
Large areas of IL, IN, MO, and OH are bone dry 🌵. Temps well above normal, no rain in the 10-day forecast. One or two timely showers could swing soybean yields 10–20 bpa. Corn grain fill is also at risk.
⚡ EPA Biofuel Waiver Watch
Nearly 200 exemption requests are waiting on an EPA ruling this week. A big approval could crush biofuel demand and weaken RIN prices. A smaller approval could boost demand. Expect an appeals battle no matter what. ⚖️
🌎 Brazil Soy Cartel Probe
Brazil’s antitrust regulator is investigating the long-standing Soy Moratorium, which bans purchases of soybeans grown on deforested Amazon land. The probe targets 30 traders, including ADM & Cargill. Enforcement of the pact is suspended while the case plays out. 🌳
🇲🇽 Flash Soybean Sale
US exporters sold 228,606mt (8 mil bu) of soybeans to Mexico this week. Even so, new-crop sales are still down 20% vs. last year.
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0:00 Ohio and SD Tour Findings
4:36 Brazilian Corn is Expensive?
7:18 USDA Solar/Wind Funding
11:12 Crop Conditions/Progress
13:49 Big Russian Wheat Crop
14:33 Grain Shipments
🌽 Welcome back! Today we’re breaking down the latest Pro Farmer Crop Tour results, fresh updates from Brazil, big USDA policy news, and the latest on US crop conditions and exports.
🌾 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Findings
🚜 South Dakota: Corn yield pegged at 174.2 bpa, up 11% from last year and 21% above the 3-year avg. Soybean pods up 16%. Scouts very impressed—ample summer moisture means record yields possible.
🌱 Ohio: Corn yield estimated at 185.7 bpa, a new record, +1.3% vs last year and +2.9% vs 3-year avg. Soybean pods up 4.7%, but scouts found huge variability due to early/late planting, spring replanting, and summer dryness.
🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Update
🌽 Second corn harvest 94% complete (AgRural).
📈 Conab raised total corn crop estimate to 137 mmt, USDA steady at 132 mmt.
🌱 New 25/26 crop planting 1.6% complete, well ahead of last year.
🚢 Despite big supply, Brazilian corn is $13/ton (33¢/bu) more expensive than US corn on export markets.
⚡ USDA Ends Wind & Solar Support
🛑 USDA Sec. Brooke Rollins announced the end of wind/solar support on farmland.
🌍 USDA argued such projects threaten future farming & food security.
💰 Until now, USDA pumped billions into renewables.
🌾 Only 0.5% of farmland was used for turbines/solar—and most stayed in production.
🌽 US Crop Conditions
Corn rated 71% G/E (down slightly, still 2nd highest in 10 years).
Soybeans steady at 68% G/E, well above average.
🚨 Weak spots: OH, MI, KY, IL.
Corn 3% mature, beans 82% setting pods.
🌾 Wheat Update
Spring wheat 50% G/E (up, but well below avg).
Harvest is 36% complete; winter wheat 94% done.
🌍 Russia raised wheat crop outlook to 85.5 mmt with exports at 42.5 mmt.
🚢 Exports & Sales
Corn exports: 1.1 mmt (down sharply vs last week/year).
Soybeans: 474k mt, mixed but stronger vs last year.
Wheat: 395k mt, near low end.
📢 Flash sale: 124k mt corn sold to unknown buyers for 25/26.
Don’t forget to like 👍, subscribe 🔔, and comment 💬 with your thoughts on the Crop Tour results—do you think South Dakota will set a new record this year?
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🌽 Welcome Back!
Some parts of the US Corn Belt have turned very dry over the last two weeks. Illinois, Missouri, Kentucky, Indiana, and Ohio have seen little to no rain 🌤️. Talk of a "flash drought" is heating up as the forecast stays dry. Temps have run 2–4° above normal, with a cool front expected this weekend. See maps below!
🚜 Crop Tour 🚜
Pro Farmer kicks off its Midwest Crop Tour this week (Aug 18–21). Scouts will travel across 7 states, measuring ear counts, pod counts, and crop health. 🌱 This tour offers the most widely followed, real-time snapshot of US crop potential. Results will be released daily, with final estimates Thursday night. Pete Meyer will join us from the tour later this week!
📉 Corn Market Update
The Dec25 corn contract closed last week nearly unchanged despite a hugely bearish USDA report. 🌾 USDA pegged this year’s corn crop at 16.7B bushels—over 700M above trade guesses. Corn bottomed at $3.92 before closing near $4.05. Export demand is strong, but concerns linger. Big crops often “get bigger,” though not always… See charts below.
🥫 Soybean Crush Record
NOPA’s July report showed a record crush for the month at 195.69M bushels (+5.6% vs June, +7% YoY). 💥 Soybean oil stocks fell to the lowest July level since 2004—just under trade estimates. See charts below!
📊 Fund Activity
CFTC data shows “The Funds” shifted positions last week:
➡️ Sold 6k corn contracts
➡️ Bought 27k soybean contracts
➡️ Sold 9k SRW wheat contracts
Check out the Fund Tracker below 👇
👍 Stay Informed!
Don’t miss a beat on weather, markets, and policy. Subscribe, drop a comment 💬, and share your thoughts on whether this “flash drought” will truly hit soybean yields.
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🌾 USDA’s “Summer of Making Agriculture Great Again” – but are they really helping farmers? 🤔
🚜 Yesterday, USDA dropped a flashy post on X claiming Sec. Rollins is “fighting every day to put farmers first.” The problem? Most recent farm payments were approved before he took office. Meanwhile, biofuel policy is stalled, the China trade war is still hurting soybeans, and US row crop farmers are stuck with sky-high costs & low prices.
📉 Markets Recap:
🌽 Dec25 corn tested early-week lows before late buying brought prices back to even.
🫘 Nov25 soybeans filled their July chart gap but reversed lower.
🌍 China is booking Brazilian beans during the US export window – 12+ million tons already locked in! A 23% tariff keeps US soy uncompetitive, even though we’re $40/ton cheaper without it.
📦 Export Sales:
✅ Corn – 2.05 MMT new crop sales, up 156% from last year, with Mexico leading buyers.
✅ Soybeans – 1.1 MMT sold, but China bought zero.
✅ Wheat – 722,800 MT, South Korea in the lead.
🌦 Weather & Drought:
Corn Belt rains missed the worst drought spots. Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky, and Ohio saw dryness worsen.
Corn in drought: 4%
Soybeans: 3%
Winter wheat: 29%
Spring wheat: 16%
Cattle: 14%
🏭 John Deere Update: Tariffs may cost Deere $600M in 2025 despite beating Q3 earnings estimates. They’re hoping future trade deals & tax policy can help offset the pain.
📢 Flash Sales: Two new US corn deals – 136k MT to South Korea & 132k MT to Spain. New crop sales are up 108% year-over-year!
📊 Charts & analysis in the video – don’t miss it! 🎥
👇 Drop your thoughts in the comments – is USDA all talk, or are they actually helping farmers?
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0:00 NCGA Asks for Help
3:45 Soybean Rally
5:44 Green Plains and Blackrock
8:41 Ethanol Production
9:48 US Beef Prices
🌽 Corn Growers Plead for Action — But Are They Asking for the Wrong Thing? 🚜
The National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) is urging lawmakers to boost corn demand through market-based solutions. Their push comes as farmers face rock-bottom prices and a USDA forecast for a record-smashing crop — 16.74 billion bushels, 9% above the 2023 record. NCGA wants Congress to approve year-round E15 sales (potentially adding 457M bushels of demand) and for the Trump administration to fast-track trade deals. But here’s my take — E15 probably won’t move the demand needle much. What we really need? A solid biofuel policy for sustainable aviation fuel — something missing from NCGA’s plan.
🌱 Soybeans on a Tear
Soybean futures rallied for the third day in a row, hitting the highest price since early July. USDA projects soybean acreage down 7% year-over-year, pushing 2025/26 ending stocks to a three-year low.
🏭 Green Plains in Deep Debt
Green Plains has pledged nine of its ten ethanol plants to BlackRock for a debt extension. The company faces oversupply issues, weaker demand, and failed diversification. Their new hope? Carbon capture + updated 45Z tax credits.
⛽ Ethanol Production Rising
Output hit 1.09M barrels/day last week, while stocks fell to the lowest point this year. Efficiency is improving — more than 3 gallons of ethanol per bushel of corn today compared to 2.8 in 2015.
🥩 Beef Prices to Climb in 2026
USDA sees beef supplies dropping to the lowest since 2019, with herd rebuilding and tariffs on Brazil tightening supplies further.
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0:00 Mammoth Corn Crop
5:07 BIG Acreage Changes
7:13 Soybean Rally
10:46 Cargill Revenue Down
12:47 Stock Market Rally
14:38 Corn Flash
🌽 Record Corn Crop Sends Prices Tumbling 📉
The USDA dropped a bombshell Tuesday, projecting a record-shattering US corn crop 🌽💥. National yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa, smashing all trade estimates and July’s forecast. Production came in at a jaw-dropping 16.74 billion bushels — that’s 1.4B bushels (9%) more than the previous record in 2023. Corn acreage was also bumped up to 97.3 million, fueled by favorable weather across much of the Corn Belt. After the news, Dec25 corn slid about 13¢ to close near $3.95/bu. 📉
🌱 Prevent Plant & Acreage Update
New FSA data shows 1.8M prevented plant acres of corn (down 32% YoY), 1.2M acres for soybeans (up 55%), and 0.3M acres for wheat (down 29%). Actual plantings came in at 96.5M corn, 79.8M soybeans, and 48.7M wheat — hinting corn acreage may be revised even higher later.
🫘 Soybean Surprise
Soybean acres were cut to 80.9M — the biggest YoY drop in modern history 📉. Production is now seen at 4.29B bu, but with a record 53.6 bpa yield. Nov25 soybeans rallied nearly 6¢, settling near $10.33/bu. 📈
🏭 Cargill Hit by Weak Grain Markets
Cargill’s revenue slid to $154B — its lowest since 2021 — amid slumping crop prices and tight beef margins. The company has cut ~8,000 jobs and restructured from five to three business units.
📊 Stock Market Pops on CPI Data
July CPI met expectations — +0.2% MoM, +2.7% YoY — sending the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to record highs 🚀. Odds of a September Fed rate cut are now near 90%.
🚢 Corn Flash Sale to Mexico
US exporters sold 315,488 mt of corn to Mexico — most for the 2025/26 marketing year. 🇲🇽
👍 Like, comment, and subscribe for the latest in grain markets, ag policy, and market-moving data! 🌾📈
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0:00 US/China/Soybeans
2:33 USDA Preview
4:56 Brazil Corn Update
8:34 Crop Progress / Conditions
11:36 Strong Corn Shipments Again
🌎 Tariff Truce Extended & Soybean Rally! 🌱📈
On Monday, President Trump extended the tariff truce with China for another 90 days — just hours before massive tariffs were set to return. Without the deal, Chinese imports to the US would’ve faced a 145% tariff, and China would’ve slapped a 125% tariff on US goods 🚢💥.
📣 In a Sunday night Truth Social post, Trump urged China to quadruple its US soybean purchases. While no fresh buying has been confirmed, soybean futures rallied nearly 24¢ Monday, with the Nov25 contract settling near $10.11/bu. However, prices are trading softer early this morning.
📊 USDA Report Day 🌽🌾
The Crop Production & WASDE report drops at 11am CST!
Corn yield & production → traders expect a big jump amid stellar crop ratings.
Soybeans → yield seen ticking higher.
Wheat → US carryout likely lower, but world numbers mostly steady.
🇧🇷 Brazil Corn Harvest Update 🌽
88% of Brazil’s second-crop corn harvested (behind last year’s pace).
AgRural pegs total corn crop at 136.3mmt (record!).
Farmer selling slow ➡️ prices high ➡️ US staying competitive.
🌱 Crop Conditions
Corn: 72% G/E (2nd-best in 10 years for this week) 👍
Soybeans: 68% G/E, still above 5-year avg 📈
Spring Wheat: 49% G/E (up 1% from last week)
Winter Wheat: 90% harvested ✅
🚢 Export Shipments
Corn: 1.5mmt (↑16% vs. last week, ↑51% YoY)
Soybeans: 519k mt (↓18% WoW, ↑48% YoY)
Wheat: 365k mt (near low end of expectations)
📺 Stay Tuned!
✅ Subscribe for real-time USDA breakdowns, grain market updates, and trade news.
💬 Drop your thoughts below—will China actually buy the beans?
Soybeans #Corn #Wheat #USDA #Trump #Tariffs #GrainMarkets #BrazilCorn #FarmNews #AgUpdates
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0:00 Trump Comments, Soybeans Surge
2:40 Trump and Farm Economy
7:47 StoneX Yield Conspiracy
10:11 The Funds and Corn
12:12 USDA Preview
14:24 Food Prices Rise
🌱 Soybeans Surge After Trump Comments 🇺🇸📈
Soybean futures are 🔥 this morning after President Donald Trump took to Truth Social Sunday night, saying he hopes China will quickly quadruple its soybean orders and is worried about a shortage. 📲 Traders are reading this as a possible hint that soybean purchases could be part of a new trade deal. The Nov25 contract spiked 📈 27¢ overnight!
📰 Trump & the Farm Economy
A recent Bloomberg piece looked at Trump's role in the farm economy. Since his first tariffs earlier this year, some farm input costs have climbed. Tariffs now average 15.2%—the highest since WWII 🇺🇸—but inflation, COVID money creation, direct farm payments 💵, and the Black Sea war ⚔️ have also fueled higher costs.
📉 New crop US soybean sales are the lowest in nearly 20 years—China hasn’t bought any yet. Meanwhile, US corn export sales are record high 🌽💪.
📊 Fund Tracker
Funds cut their net short in corn last week (👀 +15k contracts)
Net sellers of soybeans (-29k), pushing net shorts to the biggest since Dec 2024
Net sellers of SRW wheat (-16k)
📅 USDA Report Tomorrow – Big Changes Expected
Traders expect higher corn 🌽 and soybean 🌱 yield estimates, bigger US carryouts, and rising global stocks—except for wheat, which may tighten.
🌍 Global Food Prices Climb
The FAO Food Price Index hit 130.1 in July—the highest in 2+ years—driven by record-high meat prices 🥩 and surging vegetable oils 🌻🥥. Grain prices remain low despite high grocery costs.
🚨 Flash Corn Sale
US exporters sold 125,000mt (5mil bu) of corn to “unknown” buyers for 25/26. Next year’s sales are already up 102% vs last year.
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0:00 Brian's Charts
3:15 Big Corn Sales
7:50 US Ag Trade Deficit
9:42 Drought Monitor / Weather / Crop
13:49 China Pig Plan
15:57 Nutrien
18:22 BOE Rate Cut, US Next
🎯 Big Corn Sales, Global Trade Shifts & Drought Watch! 🌽📉🌍
🔥 MASSIVE Corn Sales!
US new crop corn export sales came in at 3.163 MMT (125 mil bu) — the 3rd best weekly number ever and the best without China in the mix!
👉 Soybean sales (old + new crop) both beat expectations
👉 Wheat sales strong too — up 25% from last week
🚨 Record Ag Trade Deficit
For the first 6 months of 2025, the US posted a $28.6B ag trade deficit, the worst on record... June alone: $4.1B shortfall
📌 Long-running surpluses have turned into consistent deficits since 2019
📌 Brazil & Argentina crops still undercutting US grain globally
Drought Monitor Update
USDA's weekly drought map is out:
Spotty rains helped parts of IN & the High Plains
New drought popped up in MO, IA, WI, and KY
📉 Current drought by crop:
Corn: 3%
Soybeans: 3%
Winter Wheat: 30%
Spring Wheat: 35%
Cattle: 13%
🇨🇳 China to Cut Hog Herd
China plans to reduce its sow herd by 1 million head
Cash hog prices are down 30% YoY
📦 This could mean lower soymeal demand moving forward — big implications for soybean exporters
🧠 Trade tensions also play a role here
🌱 Fertilizer Demand Still Strong
Nutrien says fall demand is booming, even with grain prices under pressure
🌽 Higher US corn acres = more potash demand
📈 Nutrien raised its 2025 potash forecast after record H1 sales
📊 Expect a busy fall fertilizer season
🇬🇧 Bank of England Cuts Rates
The BOE cut interest rates to 4.00%, lowest in over 2 years
📉 Down from 5.25% in 2024
⚖️ Vote was close: 5-4 split
📈 Inflation still high (4%)
📉 Labor market softening
🧭 Forward guidance? Cautious & slow
Drop your thoughts in the comments! Are US ag exports turning a corner… or just getting squeezed out globally?
👇 Don't forget to like, subscribe, and hit that bell 🔔 for weekly market insights that cut through the noise.
GrainMarkets #CornExports #USDA #DroughtMonitor #TradeDeficit #Soybeans #Fertilizer #BOE #China #AgNews #FarmEcono
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0:00 Hammer Time (Corn Pattern)
3:15 Wheat Update
5:03 Soybean Update
7:08 New COVID Strain
8:57 Mosaic and Fertilizer
11:02 Ethanol Production
🌽 Corn Cracks $4! Rain, Record Yields & Farmer Selling 🌧️📉
Welcome back to Grain Markets & Other Stuff — this week’s update is packed with price moves, trade chatter, and market-moving headlines! Let’s dig in👇
🌦️ 🌽 Corn Futures Dip Below $4!
The Dec '25 corn contract dipped under $4 for the first time 😬
➡️ Rains across the Corn Belt 🌧️
➡️ Lofty private yield estimates 📈
➡️ Weak Sep/Dec spread 😵💫 (farmer "puke" anyone?)
➡️ Record Brazil crop weighs on global values 🇧🇷
⚠️ USDA report on deck Tuesday — average guess is 184.2bpa vs 181
🌾 Wheat & Soybeans Stay Weak
🟤 Sep ’25 SRW wheat hit $5.04, lowest since May
🟡 Nov ’25 soybeans near $9.85 after meal-led selloff
🌎 Big global supplies + soft demand = headwinds 🚫
🦠 New COVID Variant… Again?
A new strain (XFG) is spreading.
➡️ Third most common in the US
➡️ No big red flags 🚫
💭 Worth watching… remember 2020?
🧪 Fertilizer Falters: Mosaic Slides 13%
Mosaic missed earnings and shares tanked 💥
🇺🇸 Tariffs + delayed maintenance + lower crop prices = 💸
📉 US phosphate/potash imports down 20% YTD
🍺 Ethanol Update: More Efficient Than Ever
🛢️ Weekly output: 1.08mil bpd
📉 Stocks fell to 23.76mil barrels
💰 Margins improved
🌽 One bushel = 3+ gallons of ethanol today vs. 2.8 in 2015!
📊 🖼️ See all the charts below:
• Monthly SRW Wheat 📉
• Stocks/Use Ratios
• Ethanol Efficiency Gains
👍 Don’t forget to like, subscribe, and drop your take in the comments!
📬 Stay tuned—Tuesday’s USDA report could move markets in a big way!
corn #soybeans #wheat #ethanol #fertilizer #covid #usda #grainmarkets #trading #farming #agriculture #commodities #mosaic #StoneX #JoshLinville
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0:00 Joe's Resting B Face
1:30 Corn Belt Heat Wave
3:28 Argy Meal to China
5:08 ADM Stock Rises
7:47 Farmer Sentiment
9:20 Big Ukraine Crops
10:39 Corn Flash
🌽🔥 Heat, Trade, and Biofuels – Big Moves in Ag This Week! 🌎💥
Hey farmers, traders, and ag market watchers! 👨🌾📈 This week’s update is packed with key developments you won’t want to miss! Let’s break it down ⬇️
🌡️ ☀️ Heat Wave Hits the Corn Belt!
A two-week scorcher is headed for the Corn Belt! CropProphet forecasts temps 3–4°F above normal, with near-normal rain at first, then slightly drier. Some say warm weather during grain fill can help corn and soybean yields—if moisture holds up. What do you think? 🤔
🇨🇳🌱 China Buys Big from Argentina
China’s diversifying! They've now bought 3 cargos of 🇦🇷 soybean meal (via Bunge), plus approved the first-ever Argentine corn shipment! 📦 And with a $900M letter of intent signed for soy, corn, and oil... trade ties are heating up like the weather! 🔥
🛢️ ADM Sees Biofuel Boom Ahead 🚜
Despite earlier scandals, ADM is riding high 📈—shares up 15% YTD. They expect higher biofuel mandates to fuel future profits, especially in Q4. Clarity in policy = bullish long term?
📉 Farmer Sentiment Slips 😕
The Purdue/CME Ag Economy Barometer fell to 135 in July, with both present and future outlooks lower. But there's a silver lining: 🌐 optimism about trade is up, and most believe the US is heading in the right direction.
🌾 Ukraine Crop Outlook Improves 🌍
Ukrainian wheat and corn production could exceed forecasts if weather holds. With grain production near 56mmt and exports projected to hit 40mmt, winter wheat acres are set to rise 🚜.
🚨 USDA Flash Sale (Kind of…)
USDA reported a flash soybean sale—but wait! Correction: it was actually corn! 😅 This is the second correction in two weeks. Sale totals 5 mil bushels to unknown buyers for 2025/26.
👍 If you enjoy honest, independent ag updates, smash that LIKE, SUBSCRIBE, and join the convo below! Your support keeps us going 🙌
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0:00 Subscribe to the Channel!
1:01 StoneX Estimates
5:22 Corn Selloff
7:05 Crop Conditions
11:37 Brazil Harvest
12:56 Strong Shipments
🌽📊 StoneX Sees RECORD Corn Yield! Soybeans Also Strong 💪
👀 A well-followed private group, StoneX, just dropped massive US crop estimates based on their customer survey… and the numbers are way above USDA’s latest!
🌽 Corn Yield:
🔹 188.1 bpa vs. USDA’s 181.0
🔹 16.32B bushels vs. USDA’s 15.71B
🌱 Soybean Yield:
🔹 53.6 bpa vs. USDA’s 52.5
🔹 4.43B bushels vs. USDA’s 4.34B
These estimates are based on input from StoneX’s grain-buying customers & agronomists 🧑🌾📋
📉 Market Reaction:
Corn futures sank again on Monday, with the Dec25 contract hitting a new life-of-contract low at $4.07/bu. Favorable US weather 🌤️ and a record Brazilian crop 🌎🌽 are dragging prices down.
🌾 Crop Conditions:
✅ US Corn: 73% G/E – 2nd best in a decade!
✅ US Soybeans: 69% G/E – Highest since 2020
📉 US Spring Wheat: 48% G/E – down for a 3rd straight week
🚜 Winter Wheat: 86% harvested and nearly wrapped up
🇧🇷 Brazil Corn Harvest:
⏳ Behind last year’s pace, but picking up fast!
📦 Total corn crop pegged at a record 136.3mmt
🚢 Export Inspections:
🔸 Corn: 1.2mmt (📉 21% WoW)
🔸 Soybeans: 612k mt (📈 130% YoY)
🔸 Wheat: 599k mt (📈 107% WoW)
👇 Drop your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to like 👍, subscribe 🔔, and share if this info helps you stay ahead of the market!
Corn #Soybeans #GrainMarkets #CropUpdate #StoneX #Futures #USDA #Wheat #AgNews #FarmEconomics 🌾🌽📈
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0:00 Depressing News
0:40 The Funds are Short
2:52 Heat Wave
4:15 US/China Update
5:56 Meal Update
7:41 Wheat
8:42 Flash Sales
🔥 FUND MOVES, HEAT WAVES & TRADE TALK! 🌽🌡️📉
Here's what you need to know this week in grains, weather, and global trade! 👇
📊 🧠 Fund Flows:
“The Funds” slightly reduced their net short position in the corn market last week. CFTC data showed:
Net sellers of just 181 corn contracts 📉
Heavy net sellers of 34,000 soybean contracts 😬
Largest soybean short since April 🫘
Sold 13,000 SRW wheat contracts 🌾
🌞 🔥 Heat Building in the Corn Belt:
Our friends at CropProphet see above-normal temps on the way:
📅 7-day: +2°F above normal
📅 8–14 day: +3.8°F above normal
🌧️ Slightly below-normal rainfall
🤝 US-China Trade Talks Back On?
Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent says he’s “optimistic” about a deal ✍️
🇺🇸🇨🇳 Officials met in Stockholm last week
🗓️ Deadline: August 12
👉 But so far, new crop US soybean sales are the worst since 2005... zero Chinese purchases 😳
🌎 China Buys Argentine Meal Again
China booked another 30,000mt of Argentine soybean meal 🇦🇷
That’s the 3rd deal since June after years of no activity
💰 Why? Cheaper prices thanks to lower Argentine export taxes (from 31% → 24.5%)
🚢 Wheat Export Slowdown
Russia, Ukraine, and the EU — who make up nearly 50% of global wheat exports — are off to a slow start:
Russian exports down 30% YoY 📉
Ukraine shipping just 1/3 of last year’s volume
Spot prices at Black Sea ports +8% in July
📉 All 3 US wheat futures contracts just hit life-of-contract lows
🌽 Flash Sales!
USDA reported two corn flash sales Friday:
352,160mt (14 million bushels) to unknown destinations for 25/26
📉 Stock Market Slump
Markets tumbled Friday after weak job data:
Dow -1.2%
S&P -1.6%
Nasdaq -2.2%
👎 Only 73,000 jobs added vs. 100k expected
👀 Fed rate cut odds for September just went up
🧨 Trump tariffs also added pressure
👍 Like, 💬 comment, and 🔔 subscribe for more market updates every week!
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0:00 Corn Yield Bet
3:31 Export Sales
10:41 Flash Sales
11:50 Wet July
15:26 Cattle Selloff
20:11 US Dollar Rally
🎯 US Export Sales Slide While New Crop Corn Surges 🚀 | Drought Relief & Cattle Market Shakeup 🌽💥
📉 Grains in Motion!
US corn export sales dropped 47% from last week, landing at just 340,900mt (13 mil bushels). But don’t panic—new crop corn crushed expectations with 1.9mmt (74 mil bushels) in sales! 🙌
🌱 Soybean bulls got a boost too! Net sales hit 349,200mt, exceeding estimates and climbing from last week. New crop beans came in strong at 429,500mt (16 mil bushels).
🌾 Wheat took a step back—592,100mt in sales, down 17%, but still matching the 4-week average.
🚨 Flash Sales Frenzy!
The USDA reported a wave of flash sales Thursday:
🇨🇴 100k mt corn to Colombia
🇰🇷 140k mt corn to South Korea
❓ 136k mt corn to unknown destinations
🇳🇬 100k mt of hard red winter wheat to Nigeria
📦 All for 2025/26 delivery!
🌧️ Corn Belt Drought Fades
The latest USDA Drought Monitor brought good news:
✅ Conditions improved in MN, IA, IL & IN
📉 Drought in the Corn Belt is now at just 2.4%—down from 32% earlier this year!
📌 National Drought Stats:
• Corn: 7% 🌽
• Soybeans: 5% 🌱
• Winter Wheat: 30% ❄️
• Spring Wheat: 38% 🌾
• Cattle: 14% 🐄
📉 Cattle Collapse or Just a Blip?
🐂 After new all-time highs, cattle futures got clobbered Thursday—feeder contracts hit limit down 📉
Some fear the top is in, but remember: this market has bounced back before. With tight supplies & strong beef demand, fundamentals still look solid 💪
💵 Dollar Roars in July
The US Dollar Index posted a 5% gain in July—its best month since Dec 2024! 💹
✅ Resilient economy
✅ Hawkish Fed
✅ Easing trade tensions
But beware: tariffs & political pressure could shake things up soon...
👍 Like, subscribe & comment your take on export trends, cattle futures, or the dollar’s next move!
Corn #Soybeans #Wheat #Cattle #USDollar #DroughtUpdate #USDA #AgMarkets #GrainMarketing #FarmNews 🌽📉📈
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0:00 120mil Soybean Acres
3:38 Soybean Selloff
4:51 Excessive Rain?
7:50 Ethanol Production
8:58 GDP and the Haters
🌱 Brazil's Monster Soy Crop & Market Fallout! 🌎💥
🚨 Big headlines this week from Brazil! DATAGRO pegs their next soybean crop at a jaw-dropping 182.9 MMT 🤯—well above USDA’s 175 MMT estimate. That’s +8.2% from last year’s record. 🇧🇷🌱 Meanwhile, Brazilian farmers are expected to harvest 120+ million soybean acres, dwarfing the 82.5 million in the U.S. Corn crop? Also record-setting at 140.9 MMT, says DATAGRO. 📈🌽
📉 Soybean futures keep sliding for a fourth straight day. November 2025 dropped nearly 14 cents to $9.96, the lowest since April. Why? 👉 Favorable weather 🌧️, weak Chinese demand 🇨🇳, and bearish momentum across the soy complex. Even soybean meal hit contract lows. Ouch. 🛑
🌧️ Rain, rain, and more rain in parts of the Corn Belt! Iowa, Missouri, Minnesota, and Illinois have been soaked—over 4 inches in just 7 days. Some Iowa counties have seen 12+ inches in the past month! Drier days are expected, but more rain may return next week. ☁️🌦️
⛽ Ethanol update: Weekly U.S. production hit 1.1 million barrels/day, +1.7% on the week. Stocks rose to 24.7 million barrels, staying well above seasonal norms. Margins? Still solid, per Reuters. 💵🛢️
📊 The U.S. economy is on fire 🔥! Q2 GDP came in at +3.0%, smashing expectations. The big driver? Imports plunged 30% year-over-year—thanks, tariffs. 🏛️ Fed held rates steady, but the dollar surged, notching its biggest 5-day rally since 2022! 💸🇺🇸
👇 Drop your thoughts in the comments & don’t forget to like, subscribe, and share if you enjoy staying ahead of the ag game! 🌽📰💬
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🎥 Severe Storms Slam Midwest + Market Moves & China Soy Woes ⚡🌽💼
Hey everyone! Big weather and market headlines to cover today — let's get into it 👇
0:00 Derecho Update
3:46 Corn and Soybean Price Action
5:45 Govt Payments??
8:26 Soy Demand Problems (China)
9:30 US/China Talks
10:51 Oil Refiners
🌪️ Midwest Storms Cause Chaos
Severe storms tore through the Upper Midwest on Monday night with wind gusts up to 130 mph reported from eastern South Dakota to western Wisconsin. Crops like sorghum sudan and corn were knocked flat in spots, and a South Dakota dairy suffered major structural damage. Tornadoes and large hail also hit parts of Iowa and South Dakota. Was it a derecho? Still unclear. 🤔
💨 CropProphet has a killer wind speed map by county (see below). Despite the destruction, crop damage appears minimal based on early reports. Remember: the 2023 derecho didn’t crush yields either. 🌾
📉 Markets Take Another Hit
Corn and soybean futures were down for the 3rd straight session:
Dec25 Corn: ⬇️ 3¢ to $4.11/bu
Nov25 Soybeans: ⬇️ 2¢ to $10.10/bu
Wheat also dropped:
Dec25 SRW: ⬇️ 9¢ to $5.50/bu
Dec25 HRW: ⬇️ 7¢ to $5.40/bu
Cooler weather + rain = bearish sentiment 📉🌧️
🐖 China Soybean Demand Weakens
China’s Q4 soy demand looks soft due to:
Record early-year imports
Weak feed sector demand
Crushing margins still ugly 😬
Some plants have shut down for lack of storage. And still — no US new crop soy sales to China yet. Argentina meal is doing the heavy lifting. 📊
🇺🇸🇨🇳 US-China Trade Talks Continue
Trade talks in Stockholm ended without a new tariff truce agreement, but more discussions are planned. Deadline: August 12. Will Trump approve an extension? Decision coming soon. 🤝🕰️
🛢️ Refiners vs. Biofuels
The AFPM is fighting Trump’s push to boost ethanol mandates to E15, saying it could cost refiners $70 billion. They're also blaming proposed EPA rules for refinery shutdowns — but the real issue may be declining gasoline demand. ⛽📉
👍 Like, 💬 comment, and 🔔 subscribe for more ag + market updates every week!
StormDamage #GrainMarkets #ChinaSoy #Derecho #Ethanol #TradeTalks #AgNews #CornBelt #Soybeans #FarmingNews #TrumpTariffs
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0:00 Wind Event
3:00 Crop Conditions
7:38 Big Brazil Crop
8:40 US/China Update
10:13 US Dollar
11:08 Grain Shipments
11:52 Flash Sales
🌪️ Severe Storms Rip Through the Northern Corn Belt 🌽⚡
Severe thunderstorms powered by extreme heat and humidity blasted across the Northern Plains and into the northern Corn Belt on Monday evening. 💨 Wind gusts reached an insane 134 mph in northern Iowa, with tornadoes reported in South Dakota and Iowa. Early Tuesday, storms continued in eastern Iowa, Wisconsin, and western Illinois—though the worst winds have calmed. ⚠️ Widespread power outages were reported.
📍 See storm maps below!
📉 Crop Condition Update 🌱
🔹 Corn: 73% rated good to excellent—slightly down from last week but still the 2nd best in a decade!
🔹 Soybeans: 70% rated good to excellent, the best for this time since 2020!
🔹 Spring Wheat: Declines again this week—only 49% rated good to excellent.
🔹 Winter Wheat: 80% harvested nationwide; nearly complete in TX, OK, KS.
🇧🇷 Brazil’s Corn Harvest Lags but Outlook Grows 🌽
Brazil’s 2nd crop corn harvest is behind last year—just 68% harvested vs. 91% this time last year. Despite delays, AgRural raised their total corn production estimate to a record 136.3mmt!
🚜 Dry weather helped boost weekly harvest pace.
🤝 US-China Trade Talks Continue in Stockholm 🥢
Officials met for over 5 hours Monday—no deal yet, but a 90-day truce extension is likely. The US paused some tech export controls to support talks.
🔍 No new Chinese soybean buys yet, but the market expects them soon.
🇨🇳 China could account for ~19% of US soybean demand this year.
💵 US Dollar Surges on Trade Optimism 📈
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index jumped 0.8% on Monday—its biggest move since May. The rally was fueled by the new US-EU trade deal and expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady this week.
🚢 US Export Inspections Surprise to the Upside 📦
✔️ Corn: 1.5mmt inspected—+55% vs. last week
✔️ Soybeans: 409,714mt—near the high end of estimates
❌ Wheat: 288,793mt—well below expectations
📢 Flash Sales Announced! 💼
🗓️ Monday’s USDA report showed big corn sales:
🇲🇽 225,000mt to Mexico (25/26 MY)
❓ 229,000mt to unknown (35k for 24/25, 194k for 25/26)
💰 Markets watching closely as new crop sales ramp up.
📌 Don’t forget to like, subscribe, and drop your thoughts in the comments!
🧠 Stay informed, stay ahead. More weather, markets, and updates coming your way!
GrainMarkets #CornBelt #CropConditions #Soybeans #Wheat
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0:00 US Weather, Giant Crop
2:42 US/EU Trade Deal
4:13 US and China Talks
8:05 The Funds
8:53 Cattle on Feed
11:13 Argentina Taxes
12:09 China Heat
13:27 Flash Sales
🌽 Corn Belt Rain & Cooldown Incoming! 🌧️🌬️
Rain is sweeping across the Central US Corn Belt this morning as a major system rolls through Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin. Weekend totals were best in SE Iowa, central IL, southern MN, northern IN, and OH. The 7-day forecast stays wet, and after two more hot days, a cool front arrives by Wednesday with temps 5–12°F below normal! A cooler August during grain fill? That’s typically bullish for yields... and bearish for markets. 🌡️📉
🇺🇸🤝🇪🇺 Big US–EU Trade Deal Signed!
The US and EU reached a major trade agreement Sunday. Starting Friday:
🔹 15% tariff on EU imports
🔹 EU to invest $600B in the US
🔹 EU to buy $750B in US energy
🔹 No new US tariffs on exports
President Trump says the deal will benefit US agriculture, but specifics are TBD. The EU is already the #4 buyer of US ag goods, accounting for $12.8B in 2024. 🌍🚢
🇨🇳 US–China Truce Extension Talks
Officials are meeting today in Stockholm to extend the trade truce another 90 days.
🔸 Without it, tariffs would snap back to 145% (on Chinese goods) and 125% (on US exports)!
🔸 A Trump–Xi meeting may happen in late October
🔸 China could ease up on fentanyl-linked goods
🔸 US hopes for increased Chinese ag purchases 🌾🤞
📉 Funds Shift Positions in Corn, Soy & Wheat
CFTC's latest COT report shows:
🟢 Funds bought 8k corn contracts
🟢 Funds bought 26k soybean contracts
🟢 Funds bought 9k SRW wheat contracts
🥩 Cattle on Feed: Bullish Surprise!
Friday’s report showed:
📉 June placements: 1.4mil head (6% below expectations)
📉 Total on feed: 11.1mil (1% below pre-report guess)
➡️ A bullish setup... but will record-high futures respond?
🇦🇷 Argentina Slashes Export Tariffs
President Milei cuts:
🔻 Soybean meal/oil: 31% → 24.5%
🔻 Soybeans: 33% → 26%
🔻 Corn: 12% → 9.5%
🔻 Select beef: 6.75% → 5%
Milei still sees tariffs as a “necessary evil” for balancing the budget, but farmers say they hurt worse than natural disasters. 🇦🇷💸
🔥 China’s Crop Heat Stress Continues
China faces ongoing drought and heat:
🌡️ Threatens 2025/26 corn and wheat output
📉 Analysts say wheat could fall 5% from last year
🌾 90–95% of China’s wheat is winter wheat
USDA still sees modest increases—but the heat wave could say otherwise!
🚢 USDA Flash Sales Update
📢 Big Friday moves:
🇲🇽 Mexico:
• 102,870mt corn (4mil bu)
• 142,500mt soybeans (5mil bu)
🇰🇷 South Korea:
• 140,000mt corn (6mil bu)
👉 2025/26 marketing year starts off strong!
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0:00 Sun's Out, Guns Out
0:30 Flash Sale Fiasco
2:08 USDA Cuts
5:32 US Weather
9:07 Export Sales
12:40 North Dakota Wheat
📢 USDA FLASH SALES SHAKE UP THE CORN MARKET! 🌽📊
🔥 Big news hit the wire Thursday as USDA reported multiple flash sales of US corn!
💥 135,000mt (5 mil bu) went to South Korea—after an initial (and incorrect) announcement that China was the buyer, sparking a brief rally.
🌍 Another 284,196mt (11 mil bu) of corn was sold to unknown destinations. Export action is heating up!
🏢 USDA RELOCATION PLAN: BIG SHAKEUP IN DC! 🏛️➡️🏞️
The USDA will relocate 2,600+ employees from Washington to cities like Raleigh, KC, Indy, Fort Collins & Salt Lake City.
🏗️ Several DC buildings will be vacated.
📉 Critics warn of reduced agency effectiveness, while supporters say it’ll bring USDA closer to farmers.
📊 This move includes a NASS consolidation, affecting reports on:
🌽 Crop production
📏 Acreage
🐮 Cattle on feed
❄️ Cold storage
🌾 Grain stocks & more!
🌧️ DROUGHT IMPROVEMENTS ACROSS THE CORN BELT! 🌽💦
💧 Missouri is now entirely drought-free!
🌦️ Heavy rains in IL, IN, KY, and MO improved conditions across much of the Midwest.
📉 Drought by crop area:
Corn: 9%
Soybeans: 8%
Winter Wheat: 31%
Spring Wheat: 43%
Cattle: 15%
🌾 NORTH DAKOTA SPRING WHEAT YIELDS MISS USDA TARGETS! 📉
🚜 After 3 days of field surveys, scouts peg ND yields at 49 bpa, far below the USDA’s 59 bpa estimate.
🌦️ Rain helped some areas, but northern drought weighs on the average.
📉 Sep25 spring wheat contract hit new lows this week.
📈 EXPORT SALES SNAPSHOT 🌎
Corn: 📈 643,100mt (25 mil bu) – Rebound from last week!
Soybeans: 📉 160,900mt (6 mil bu) – Down sharply from recent weeks
Wheat: 🚀 712,200mt (26 mil bu) – Blew past expectations!
Top Buyers:
🇲🇽 Mexico (corn)
🇳🇱 Netherlands (soybeans)
🇮🇩 Indonesia (wheat)
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0:00 Farm Bankruptcies Rise
4:57 China Hog Reduction?
6:38 Heat Wave
10:17 North Dakota Wheat Tour
11:27 Ethanol Production
📉 🚨 Farm Bankruptcies Surge
Farm bankruptcies have jumped to their highest level since 2020 📈. With high interest rates, trade war aftershocks 🇨🇳🇺🇸, and slumping export demand, many growers are feeling the squeeze. Total US farm debt is set to hit a record $561.8 billion 💰. While USDA sees higher net income this year, it's largely thanks to government aid 🧾.
🐖 China Cuts Hog Herd & Soymeal Use
China is rebalancing its pork market amid a glut of hogs and falling prices 🐷⬇️. Officials are slashing sow numbers, limiting new capacity, and even pushing alternative protein sources like food waste, insects 🪳, and animal-based proteins 🐟. This is also part of China's move to reduce soybean meal use and lessen dependence on global markets.
🔍 Typical Chinese hog ration: 50–65% corn 🌽, 15–20% soymeal, 5–15% small grains, 5–10% bran/DDGs.
🔥 Corn Belt Heat Dome Persists
A brutal heat dome continues to roast the Corn Belt 🥵. Triple-digit heat indices and warm overnight lows are stressing crops across the region. Relief may not come until next week. Despite the heat, traders seem unfazed—thanks to an otherwise strong growing season 🌱.
🌾 North Dakota Wheat Tour: Mixed Yields
Crop scouts in southern ND pegged hard red spring wheat yields at 50 bpa, down slightly from last year but still above the 5-year avg. Northern fields averaged 47.1 bpa—again lower vs. 2023 but stronger than the 5-year norm. 🌾 Disease risk and wind damage were noted.
⛽ Ethanol Update: Output Slips, Stocks Build
US ethanol production dipped slightly last week, but stocks jumped to 24.44 million barrels 📦. Despite slower output, margins have improved 💹.
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0:00 US/Japan Deal
3:00 Heat Wave, Corn Sweat
5:37 Wheat Sucks
7:52 Coca-Cola Update
8:53 US/China Update
11:12 Meme Stocks / M2
🎥 BIG TRADE DEALS, CORN SWEAT & MEME STOCKS! 🌽📈🇯🇵
🚨 President Trump just dropped a massive trade bombshell — TWO new international deals in one day!
🇯🇵 Japan Deal Highlights:
– 15% tariff on imports
– $550B Japanese investment in the US (Trump decides where it goes!)
– Big wins for US agriculture: 🚜 +75% rice purchases, +$8B in ag imports
– Expanded access for American cars, corn, soybeans, wheat, beef, pork & dairy!
🇵🇭 Philippines Deal:
– 19% export tariff to the US
– Details still emerging…
🔥 Meanwhile, it’s HOT out there—and “🌽 Corn Sweat” is making it worse!
A massive heat dome is punishing the eastern U.S., with humidity spiking in the Corn Belt right during pollination. Luckily, forecasts now show a drastic cooldown coming soon. 🌡️🌽
📊 Wheat rallies on smaller harvest expectations from Russia 🇷🇺, Ukraine 🇺🇦, and drought in Canada 🇨🇦.
– SRW & HRW wheat futures up
– Spring wheat climbs near $6.12/bu
🥤 Coca-Cola’s Cane Sugar Comeback?
– Trump praised Coke for ditching HFCS
– A new, premium cane sugar line may launch. 🍬
– But don’t expect big changes to corn demand just yet
🌏 China Trade Truce Extended?
– Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent heading to Sweden for talks
– 90-day tariff pause expires Aug. 12
– Topics: trade balance, oil imports from Russia/Iran, China’s economic reforms
💥 Meme Stocks Return!
– Opendoor & Kohl’s are the new GameStop & AMC
– Retail frenzy is back despite higher rates and no stimulus
– Many asset classes (stocks, real estate, farmland, BTC, gold) hovering near all-time highs 🚀💰
– Is it FOMO… or a bubble? 🫧
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0:00 China/Africa
2:45 Row Crop Selloff
6:35 188 National Corn Yield??
8:40 Wheat
9:42 Monster Brazil Corn Crop
10:52 Fertilizer and Sanctions
12:34 Grain Shipments
🌍🇨🇳 China Targets Angola for Major Ag Expansion! 🌽🌱
A Chinese state-owned giant, Citic Ltd., is investing $250 million to build massive soybean and corn farms across 247,000 acres in Angola! 🚜 Roughly 60% of production will head to China, with the rest staying local. Angola’s soils are similar to Brazil’s Cerrado, making this a potential ag powerhouse with the right tech and investment. 🤖🌾
📦 TRADE + POLICY
China and the US have agreed on a framework to ease trade tensions... but no final deal yet. Meanwhile, Angola plans more ag deals with China, with an eye on exporting 500,000+ mt of food. Stay tuned for the geopolitics of grain! ⚖️🌐
🌧️📉 MARKETS MOVE ON WEATHER & TRADE
Corn and soybean futures slipped Monday as forecasts called for rain in the Corn Belt, muting concerns about upcoming heat. 🌡️ Wheat dropped too, pressured by Russian exports, but saw support from Bangladesh’s new U.S. wheat deal.
🌽 CROP CONDITIONS STRONG
Corn: 74% good/excellent—best since 2016! 🌟
Soybeans: 68% G/E—well above average but down slightly
Spring Wheat: Ratings fell again 🌾
Winter Wheat: 73% harvested—one of the slowest paces in a decade ⏳
🇧🇷 BRAZIL CORN OUTLOOK IMPROVES
AgRural raised Brazil's corn estimate to 136.3 MMT, citing better yields for the second crop. 🌽 Harvest is 55% done — still behind last year. Brazil’s crop is now seen 170 million bushels larger than USDA's latest figure. 🔼📈
🚫 FERTILIZER SUPPLY RISK?
Potential U.S. secondary sanctions on Russian exports could hit Latin America's fertilizer supply, especially Brazil and Mexico. Both nations are heavily dependent on Russian imports—a major risk to crops like corn and avocados. 🧪⚠️
🚢 EXPORTS: MIXED BAG
Corn: 983k mt — down 25% from last week 📉
Soybeans: 365k mt — up 141% from last week 🔼
Wheat: 732k mt — up 152% YoY 🚀
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0:00 Dome of Doom
3:35 The Funds
6:07 Bangladesh Deal
7:29 China Soybean Imports
9:04 Stablecoin Bill
🔥 HEAT DOME BEARS DOWN ON THE CORN BELT! 🌽💥
🌡️ 🔥 Weather Watch: Dome of Doom Incoming!
A major heat wave is forecast to impact the Corn Belt starting Tuesday! A "heat dome" will bring extreme temps and humidity, with highs soaring to 95–105°F and heat indices well into the triple digits! 🥵 Overnight lows in the 70s offer little relief, stressing crops further. The good news? A slight cooldown may arrive by the weekend. ☁️🌬️
🌧️ 🌽 Grain Markets & Weather: Rain vs. Heat
Some say “rain makes grain,” but others worry that too much rain + heat could hurt yields in some areas. The dome may block rain for some, but precipitation around the edge looks adequate.
📉 📊 Fund Flows: Corn Buying, Soy Selling
"The Funds" cut their corn shorts last week! 🚜 CFTC data shows money managers bought 20K corn contracts, but sold 24K soybean contracts, flipping soybeans to net short for the first time since April. Funds also offloaded 5K SRW wheat.
🇧🇩 🌾 US Wheat Deal with Bangladesh
Bangladesh just signed a 5-year deal to import 700,000mt of US wheat annually 🌎👏—part of a broader effort to boost trade and avoid tariffs. While a positive headline, this move represents a small slice of Bangladesh's 7mmt/year wheat demand. Still, it’s a step in the right direction! 📦📜
🇨🇳 📦 China Soybean Imports Soar
China’s soybean imports hit a record high in June! 🚢 Brazil supplied 87% of total imports, while the US share rose 21% YoY. From Jan–June, Brazil’s shipments dropped 7.5%, while US volumes jumped 33%. Q3 imports should remain strong, but Q4 hinges on US-China trade talks. 🤝🇺🇸🇨🇳
💵 🪙 Stablecoin Shake-Up: GENIUS Act Signed
Trump just signed the first federal stablecoin law—the GENIUS Act 🧠💵. The law creates rules for US dollar-backed digital money (aka stablecoins) to reduce risk and boost global confidence. Supporters call it a “giant step” for crypto. Critics? Not so sure… 🤔⚖️
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0:00 Intro
0:47 Soy Rally
3:05 Drought / Overnight Lows
10:30 Export Sales
13:07 Fertilizer Update
15:52 SAF Plant
18:35 S&P 500 Record
🎥 Soybeans Surge, Droughts Ease, and Fertilizer Wars Begin! 🌱💥📈
🔥 BIG moves in the grain markets this week! Here's what you need to know:
🌾 Soybean Rally 🚀
The Nov25 soybean contract jumped from $10.07 to around $10.40! Much of the rally is thanks to soaring soybean oil futures, which hit their best levels since Sept '23. 📊 Optimism around Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) is keeping the bulls active. 🌱 Corn and soybean oil futures are sharply higher too.
🌧️ Drought Monitor Update 🌎
Last week’s rains brought some relief! ⛈️
💧 Iowa, Illinois & Missouri received more than 200% of normal rainfall!
✔️ Drought conditions improved in:
Northern Illinois
Northeast Missouri
Southern Indiana
Parts of Iowa, Minnesota, South Dakota & Nebraska
Corn: 9% in drought
Soybeans: 7%
Winter wheat: 30%
Spring wheat: 36%
Cattle country: 15% 🐄
📉 Disappointing Export Sales
US export sales stumbled last week:
❌ Corn: Just 97,600 mt—a marketing year low 😬
❌ Soybeans: 271,900 mt—weak numbers 😕
✅ Wheat: 494,400 mt—down from last week but better than the 4-week average
🇷🇺 Russia Targets Fertilizer Expansion 🌍
Russia wants to grow its global fertilizer share from 20% to 25% by 2030, focusing on BRICS nations 🌐
⛔️ EU tariffs are pushing Russian supply elsewhere
🧪 BRICS = nearly half of global fertilizer demand
✈️ Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Takes Off 🛫
The world’s first SAF plant is expected to start in Georgia by late Sept
💰 $200M LanzaJet facility will begin using Brazilian sugarcane ethanol (not 45Z eligible)
🇺🇸 US ethanol will be used later—once it meets the 50% GHG reduction threshold
🛢️ LanzaJet is pushing to lower the threshold to 30% for more flexibility
📈 Stock Market Soars 📊
The S&P 500 hit a record high!
🛍️ Strong retail sales
📉 Declining jobless claims
💵 Stablecoin bill passed
💲 US dollar on fire 🔥
🏦 Rate cuts still expected despite Powell uncertainty
💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments & don’t forget to LIKE & SUBSCRIBE!
🔔 Stay updated on everything from beans to the big board!
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0:00 Trump and Coke
3:17 Soybean Rally
4:41 US Weather
8:23 US/China Tensions Ease
9:37 Ethanol Production
10:28 Trump and Powell
📢 BIG Changes Coming to Coca-Cola? Trump Says So! 🥤🇺🇸
According to President Trump, Coca-Cola may soon ditch high-fructose corn syrup and switch to real cane sugar in U.S. products! 🌽❌➡️🍬 Trump praised the move in a post on Truth Social, tying it to his broader push to reduce processed ingredients in the American food supply. But... Coke hasn’t confirmed anything yet. 🤔
🌎 Coke already uses cane sugar in places like Mexico and the UK, so could the U.S. be next?
💡 Fun fact: About 410 million bushels of U.S. corn went to HFCS in 2023—that's 2.8% of total corn demand!
🌱 MARKET MOVERS 💰
📈 Soybeans surged nearly 19 cents on Wednesday amid fresh export demand speculation—possibly China!
🌽 Corn futures also rose 4 cents on renewed optimism and trade progress with Indonesia.
🌦️ WET WEATHER ALERT!
CropProphet sees 142% of normal rainfall across the Corn Belt over the next 7 days, but things may dry out during the 8–14 day window 🌧️➡️☀️.
⚠️ Watch for hot and humid nights in the eastern Corn Belt—could be a problem!
🕊️ TRUMP SOFTENS ON CHINA?
Trump is now seeking short-term deals with China and a possible meeting with President Xi. The pivot has sparked internal debate, especially after easing chip restrictions on Nvidia 💻🧠.
🍺 ETHANOL WATCH
🛢️ Weekly U.S. ethanol production ticked up to 1.09M barrels/day, but still trails last year. Stocks fell for a third straight week. Margins? Still strong 💪
🏛️ TRUMP VS. POWELL?
Despite rumors, Trump says he won’t fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell—unless there’s fraud. Still, he's calling for a massive 3-point rate cut and slammed the Fed’s pricey HQ renovation. 💸📉
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0:00 Stupid Theory
4:47 Corn Belt Rain
7:48 Soybean Crush
9:13 Indonesia Trade Deal
10:53 Brazil Tariffs and Beef Imports
🔥 Inflation Rises, Tariffs Bite, and Weather Heats Up! 🌽💰🌦️
Hey everyone! In today’s update, we’re tracking the latest market movers—from soaring inflation to shifting weather and big-time trade news. Let’s dive in! 👇
📈 🔥 Inflation Hits a 5-Month High
Consumer prices rose 0.3% in June—marking the biggest jump since February. Annual inflation ticked up to 2.7% 📊. Tariff-sensitive goods like clothing and appliances saw the sharpest increases, suggesting tariffs may be fueling price pressures. Trump wasted no time calling for Fed rate cuts… again.
🌦️ 🌽 Rain Watch: Big Totals Incoming
Rain is moving through parts of Iowa, Minnesota, and the Dakotas this morning, with 1–2" expected over much of the Corn Belt in the next 5 days. Some areas could top 3" over the 10-day! Forecasts are calling for near-normal temps this week, but the extended outlook turns hot! 🔥
🫘 NOPA Crush Record!
June soybean crush came in at 185.71 million bushels—a record for the month 📉🛢️. Oil stocks fell to their lowest June level since 2004, dropping below trade estimates.
🤝 Indonesia Strikes a Deal 🇮🇩
Trump finalized a tariff deal with Indonesia: 🇺🇸 ag exports head in tariff-free, while 🇮🇩 exports face a 19% duty. Indonesia will buy $4.5B in US ag goods, including wheat, soybeans, soymeal, and dairy 🧀. See the Top 10 wheat & meal importer charts to understand the impact 📈🌾.
🥩 Beef Battles: Brazil Tariff Incoming
Starting August 1, Brazilian beef faces a 50% US tariff 🐄💥. Brazilian meatpackers are already scaling back cattle buying. With the US cattle herd at a 70-year low, this could mean tighter beef supplies ahead. Brazil sent $1.4B in beef to the US last year—nearly a quarter of our imports.
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0:00 Corn Reversal
2:31 Corn/Soybean Ratings are Strong
6:06 More Corn Belt Rain
8:57 Brazil Corn Update
10:30 Grain Shipments
11:27 Bitcoin
🌽 Corn Pops Higher!
Corn futures posted an upside reversal on Monday! 📈 The Dec25 contract hit new life-of-contract lows before rallying nearly 6 cents. Short covering and bargain buying helped lift the market—but gains were limited by favorable weather and expectations for a record-large crop. Traders remain cautious as President Trump steps up tariff threats.
🌱 Crop Conditions Remain Strong 💪
✅ US corn: 74% good-to-excellent—best for the week since 2016!
✅ US soybeans: 70% good-to-excellent—also second best in a decade!
Only 5% of each crop is rated poor to very poor. That’s bullish for yield potential!
🌾 Wheat Update 🚜
🌱 Spring wheat: 54% good-to-excellent (up from 50% last week).
🧊 Winter wheat harvest: 63% complete, still running slightly behind average and much slower than last year.
🌧️ Rain Returns + Heat on Deck ☀️
The Corn Belt is wet again this week with widespread rainfall expected in the 5-day and 5-10 day windows. 🌦️
⚠️ But look out! CropProphet says the 8–14 day outlook shows temps averaging +4.3°F above normal.
🔥 Heat could return as a key market factor.
🇧🇷 Brazil’s Harvest Lagging 🐢
Brazil’s second-crop corn harvest is just 40% complete—way behind last year’s 74% pace. Despite delays, both USDA and Conab still forecast a record-large 132mmt crop.
📉 Largest weekly harvest gain so far this season—but still playing catch-up.
🚢 Exports Sluggish 📦
👀 Corn: 1.3mmt inspected last week (down 18% WoW).
🥜 Soybeans: Weak at just 147,045mt (down 63% WoW).
🌾 Wheat: Better, near top end of expectations at 439,533mt.
₿ Bitcoin Blasts Higher! 🚀
Bitcoin surged 3.4% on Monday to hit a new all-time high of $123,205 💰 before cooling off.
🧠 "Crypto Week" is here—Congress debates 3 major crypto bills.
💸 $2.7B flowed into Bitcoin ETFs last week—fifth-best inflow on record.
📈 Year-to-date: +30%. After doubling in 2024, BTC is still running hot.
👇 Hit that like button, leave a comment with your market thoughts, and don’t forget to subscribe for daily updates! 🔔
Corn #Soybeans #Wheat #Bitcoin #GrainMarkets #Crypto #Weather #Farming #Commodities #Agriculture 🌽🧑🌾📊
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0:00 Too Much Rain??
4:03 USDA Report
8:15 Tariff News
9:54 The Funds
10:45 Flash Sale
🎯 WEEKEND GRAIN WRAP-UP: Big Rains, Lower Stocks & New Tariffs! 🌽☔📉
🔥 What a weekend! Here’s what’s moving the markets:
🌧️ Weather Watch
Substantial rainfall soaked much of the US Corn Belt this weekend!
💦 Best totals: Iowa, Illinois, northeast Missouri & southern Wisconsin
🌦️ Scattered rains: Eastern Corn Belt
📅 Forecast: More rain over the next 5–10 days
🌡️ Temps: Near-normal now, but above-normal coming in the 8–14 day outlook
📉 USDA Report Recap
Corn futures fell Friday… despite a friendly USDA update:
📦 Ending stocks cut to 1.34B bu—lowest in 4 years!
🚢 Record export forecast at 2.75B bu
🌽 2025/26 corn production trimmed to 15.7B bu (still record high)
🌱 Soybean crop adjusted to 4.34B bu
📏 Yields? Still unchanged... but the market might be pricing in much higher yields already 🤔
🇺🇸 Tariff Trouble
President Trump is back with more tariffs:
📆 Starting August 1: 30% tariff on goods from Mexico & EU
⚙️ Possible exemptions for companies that move manufacturing to the US
⚠️ Retaliation? Trump says any response tariffs will be added on top
🌍 EU & Mexico = 1/3 of total US imports
🇲🇽 Mexico = #1 buyer of US corn
🇪🇺 The EU is the #2 buyer of US soybeans and #5 of US corn
💰 Money Flow: Fund Activity
🟢 Corn: Funds net buyers of 10k contracts (1st time in 6 weeks!)
🔴 Soybeans: Net sellers of 7k
🟢 SRW Wheat: Net buyers of 6k
📊 Check out the Fund Tracker charts below!
🫘 Flash Sale Alert!
🇲🇽 Mexico booked 219,900mt (8M bu) of new crop soybeans for 2025/26
📈 New crop soybean sales are already 4% ahead of USDA’s target!
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💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments—are we underestimating this corn yield?
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0:00 Non-Drought and Illinois Rain
6:36 USDA Preview
14:50 Export Sales
17:42 CONAB
20:21 USDA Secretary Mackenzie
24:07 Flash Sale
🌾 USDA Report Today
USDA will release its monthly Crop Production & WASDE report at 11:00am CST.
📉 July rarely brings yield changes, so traders will focus on demand.
Corn export pace could lead to higher old-crop exports—but lower feed demand might offset it.
🌍 Global balance sheet adjustments also likely.
🌧️ Drought Monitor Update
Rain helped drought in western Missouri, southwest Iowa & northern Minnesota.
🌾 But conditions worsened in central/northern Illinois & Michigan.
⚠️ New drought concerns in western Ohio, southern Indiana & northern Kentucky.
High Plains: Nebraska improved, but drought deepened in northeast North Dakota, central South Dakota, & western Kansas. US areas in drought:
🌽 Corn 12% | 🌱 Soybeans 9% | 🌾 Winter Wheat 26% | 🌱 Spring Wheat 35% | 🐄 Cattle 16%
📈 Export Sales Strong
Corn sales surged to 1.3mmt (50mil bu), 70% above the 4-week average—Mexico led buying.
Soybeans at 503,000mt (18mil bu), up 9% w/w; unknown destinations were top buyers.
Wheat at 567,800mt (21mil bu), slightly down w/w but 37% above the 4-week average; South Korea led demand.
🇧🇷 Brazil Corn Crop Record
Conab forecasts corn at 132mmt—up 2.9% from last month & 14.3% higher than last season.
🌽 Boost driven by a strong second crop (+16%).
Corn exports raised to 36mmt (+6%).
Slight cut to soybean forecast: now 169.5mmt, still up 14.7% vs last season.
🐄 Feeder Cattle Imports Halted
USDA suspended Mexican feeder cattle imports after a new screwworm case, just 370 miles south of the border.
🇲🇽 Mexican President Sheinbaum called it an overreaction.
Imports had resumed only Monday at an Arizona port after a May closure.
YTD imports through April were 193,000 head, down ~60% from last year.
🚢 Flash Corn Sale
US exporters sold 110,000mt of corn to unknown destinations for 2025/26.
🌽 New crop corn sales are off to a strong start—the third best since 2020/21.
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0:00 More Government Cash
3:34 "Ideal" Weather?
7:11 Soybean Selloff
8:18 Brazil Tariffs
9:46 Strong Ethanol Production
🇺🇸💰 USDA ROLLS OUT $16 BILLION IN DISASTER AID! | Market Moves, Weather Boost & New Tariff Drama 🇧🇷🌽
🌪️ USDA Disaster Aid Incoming!
The USDA just announced $16 BILLION in disaster aid for farmers hit by natural disasters in 2023 and 2024 🌾💵. This Supplemental Disaster Relief Program rolls out in two stages:
✅ Stage 1: Available NOW for producers who already received insurance or NAP payments. Prefilled apps are in the mail ✉️.
🍂 Stage 2: Launches early fall for shallow or uninsured losses.
This is part of $30 billion total in 2024 farm and ranch relief 🐄🌽. Don’t miss your chance—talk to your FSA office today!
🌧️ Perfect Timing: Corn Belt Gets a Soaker!
A widespread rain system is soaking key states: Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Missouri, and moving east. Even fringe acres in OK and KS get a drink 🌧️🌱. Cooler temps on deck = big win for crop health!
📉 Soybeans Slide Again
Nov25 beans dropped another 10¢ to $10.07. Traders are nervous 😬:
Ongoing tariff concerns with China 🇨🇳
Trump vows to enforce reciprocal tariff policy Aug 1 ⏳
Fund selling + great weather = bearish setup
📉 This could be a technical breakdown after weeks of sideways chop.
🇧🇷 Brazil Hit With 50% Tariff!
Trump targets Brazil with his biggest tariff yet—50% on imports starting Aug 1 🔥
He calls it a message to BRICS and a defense of the US dollar 💵⚔️. This hit soybean sentiment hard, and the USD surged 2% on the real. 📈
🛢️ Ethanol Bump!
🚀 Production up 1% WoW, 3% YoY
📉 Stocks dipped slightly but still high
💰 Margins looking better for producers
👉 Like, comment, and SUBSCRIBE for daily ag & market updates!
📬 Tap the 🔔 to never miss an alert—especially when billions are on the table!
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0:00 China, Get the Hell Out!
3:58 Tuesday Selloff
7:52 Brazil Export Problems
9:09 Tariff Update
10:38 Wheat Purchase Agreements
11:47 Flash Sales
🎯 US Cracks Down on Foreign Farmland Ownership + Grain Market Movers! 🌽📉🌎
🚨 National Farm Security Alert!
The Trump administration is taking major steps to restrict foreign ownership of U.S. farmland—especially from China 🇨🇳. Under the new National Farm Security Action Plan, the USDA will team up with state leaders and the Treasury Department to review land purchases more closely. Fines for false or late filings will jump to 25% 💰. In 2023, foreign ownership rose to 45 million acres—but less than 1% is held by China.
🌽 Corn Futures Slide Again
Corn prices dropped for the second day as the Dec25 contract settled near $4.14/bu. The USDA crop report showed 74% of corn is rated good-to-excellent—the best for this week since 2018! A mild forecast with scattered rains is keeping crop stress low and boosting yield outlooks 📊.
🇧🇷 Brazilian Corn Faces Export Jams
Brazil's corn exports are up 📈, but soybeans may clog the ports. China is buying big on beans, but is pulling back on corn after a strong domestic crop. Brazil will have to turn to Iran, Egypt, and Vietnam to make up the gap—but those markets won’t match China’s demand.
📦 Trump's Tariff Clock Is Ticking
Trump says no more extensions—his reciprocal tariffs hit Aug 1. Copper will face a 50% tariff, causing a historic price spike 📈🪙. Imported drugs could see 200% tariffs unless production shifts to the US. More sectors may follow: semiconductors, metals, and more.
🌾 Indonesia Locks in US Wheat Deal
To secure a trade agreement, Indonesia will purchase $1.25B in US wheat through 2030. This year’s target: 800,000mt—up 8% YoY 📄. Future annual buys will rise to 1mmt. Wheat still makes up a small portion of Indonesia’s total grain imports, but more deals on corn and soybeans could follow!
🚢 Flash Sales!
The USDA announced:
• 📦 144,000mt soybean meal to 🇵🇭 Philippines
• 🌽 112,776mt (4M bushels) of corn to 🇲🇽 Mexico
Don’t forget to like, comment, and subscribe to stay on top of all the latest ag policy, weather, and market news! 📺✅
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0:00 Monday Selloff
3:07 Trade Stuff
4:33 Corn Yield Prospects
9:23 The Funds
10:21 Grain Shipments
11:15 Flash Sale
📉 Corn & Soybeans Slide on Weather & Trade Letdown 🌽🌦️
Monday brought a sharp sell-off in grain futures, with Dec25 corn falling 🌽 16¢ to ~$4.21 and Nov25 soybeans plunging 🌱 29¢ to ~$10.21. Why the drop? 🌤️ Ideal Midwest weather continues, and traders were let down by no new trade deals from President Trump’s Iowa speech last week. 📉📊
💼 Trump Turns Up the Heat on Tariffs 🇺🇸📑
The President sent tariff warning letters to key trade partners. 📬 Japan & South Korea—major US corn buyers—now face potential 25% tariffs if no deal is reached by August 1. 🌏 Countries aligning with BRICS policies (like 🇨🇳 China and 🇧🇷 Brazil) could face an extra 10% tariff.
🌽 Crop Conditions Shine ☀️
• Corn: 74% good-to-excellent, best early July rating since 2018
• Soybeans: 66% good-to-excellent, best since 2020 (excl. 2023)
Analysts eye above-trend corn yields—potentially 184.6 to 188.2 bpa based on strong early ratings 📈
🌾 Wheat Update
• Spring wheat slips for the 3rd week ➡️ 50% G/E (below avg)
• Winter wheat harvest hits 53%, just under average
💰 Money Flow & Export Buzz 💸
• Funds increased their short in corn (net short: 190k contracts)
• Corn exports: Up 8% week-over-week, +46% YoY 🚢
• Soybean & wheat shipments: Strong, near top end of expectations
• Flash sale: 135,000mt corn to Mexico, spanning two crop years 🇲🇽
👇 Drop your thoughts in the comments!
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Corn #Soybeans #Trump #Tariffs #GrainMarkets #Wheat #FarmingNews #CropConditions #Exports #USDA #Commodities #GrainFutures #Agriculture 🌽🌎📈
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0:00 No Trade Deals, Markets Tumble
2:07 OBBB and Farmers
3:42 Tariff Deadlines
6:38 Drought/Weather Update
8:23 Record Corn Export Program Possible?
9:50 Russia Slashes Wheat Export Tax
10:57 Flash Sales
🇺🇸 President Trump’s Rally in Iowa: “One Big Beautiful Bill” Signed Into Law! 🚜📉🔥
President Trump took the stage in Des Moines on Thursday, celebrating the passage of his massive new tax and spending bill — claiming it will “Make America Great Again” 🇺🇸💵. While no new trade deals were announced (despite trader hopes), he highlighted 🔻 egg prices, 🔥 US military action in Iran, and ⬇️ border crossings. He also reassured farmers their labor force is safe, though details were thin. 🌽🚫 Corn & soybean futures are sharply lower this morning as trade rumors fizzled out.
📜 What’s in the “Big Beautiful Bill”?
✅ $68.3B in new farm program funding
✅ Higher PLC & ARC reference prices for this crop year
✅ Increased payment limits & lifted income caps
✅ Up to 30M new base acres allowed (2019–2023 history)
✅ $6.3B for crop insurance over 10 years
✅ Expanded premium support for beginning farmers
✅ 🇺🇸 US-only feedstock rule for biofuel tax credits (2026)
✅ 🔁 Extension of 45Z through 2029
✅ ✂️ SAF credit cut from $1.75 ➡️ $1.00/gal
✅ ⛽️ Boost to biomass-based diesel
🛃 Tariff Deadline Extended?
Originally set for July 9, the tariff deadline may be pushed to August 1 for countries still negotiating 🤝. Sec. Bessent says talks with 18 major partners are ongoing — with frameworks announced for 🇬🇧 UK, 🇨🇳 China, and 🇻🇳 Vietnam. Still pending: 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇮🇳 India, 🇰🇷 South Korea, 🇪🇺 EU.
🌧️ Drought Update: Big Improvement!
Thanks to recent rains, drought conditions dropped sharply across the 🌽 Corn Belt and 🌾 High Plains!
🔹 Corn: 12% in drought
🔹 Soybeans: 8%
🔹 Winter wheat: 24%
🔹 Spring wheat: 29%
🔹 Cattle areas: 18%
📦 Export Sales Recap:
🔹 Corn: 532,700mt ➡️ ⬇️ 28% vs. last week
🔹 Soybeans: 462,400mt ➡️ ⬆️ 15% vs. last week
🔹 Wheat: 586,000mt ➡️ ⬆️ strong sales led by 🇵🇭 Philippines
📢 Flash Sales Alert:
✔️ 150,000mt corn
✔️ 226,000mt soybeans
✔️ 195,000mt soymeal (spread across 24/25 & 25/26)
🌍 Russia Cuts Wheat Export Tax to Zero!
🇷🇺 In a surprise move, Russia slashed its wheat export tax to zero for July 9–15 to boost weak overseas demand. June wheat exports were just 1.1mmt — a fraction of last year’s volume. Expect volatility in global wheat markets to continue.
📊 See all charts below & don’t miss today’s premium breakdown with Paul Neiffer!
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0:00 Trump, Iowa and Trade Deals
4:45 Vietnam/US Trade Deal
6:50 US Weather Update
8:33 Ethanol Production
11:45 Stock Market Records
🎤🇺🇸 President Trump Visits Iowa: Big Trade Talk & Market Moves! 🌽📈
📍 LIVE from the Iowa State Fairgrounds!
President Trump takes the stage tonight at 7:30pm CST as part of the America250 Kick-Off Celebration. In a recent Truth Social post, he thanked Iowans for their strong support over the past three elections and teased major updates on ag trade 👀🚜
🌎 🌾 Global Trade Buzz
Rumors are flying about possible new trade deals with China & India 📈
Speculation alone sent grain markets soaring yesterday
Trump’s Iowa visit may bring 🔥 announcements
🇻🇳 Vietnam Deal Announced!
Trump revealed a new US-Vietnam agreement:
✅ $2B in American ag purchases
✅ Tariff-free entry for US goods
⛔ 20% tariff on Vietnamese exports + 40% on transshipped goods
Vietnam may not be a game-changer like China, but it’s a solid win for US ag 💪
☀️🌧️ Corn Belt Weather Outlook
Near-normal rainfall expected next 7 days
Dry in central/eastern Corn Belt short term
Wetter pattern shifts eastward 8–14 day range
Temps staying 1–4°F above normal = continued heat risk 🌡️
🍻 Ethanol Snapshot
Weekly production: 1.08M bpd (down slightly but still strong)
Stocks high at 24.12M barrels
Margins improved over the past week 💵
📊 Markets React to Trade News
📈 S&P 500 hit record high (+0.5%)
💻 Nasdaq also set new record (+1%)
📉 Dow dipped slightly
Investors eye more trade deals before the July 9 tariff deadline
⚠️ ADP data shows surprise job losses — watch today’s jobs report for Fed rate clues!
👇 Drop your thoughts in the comments! Will Trump drop trade bombshells tonight?
🔔 Don’t forget to subscribe for daily updates on grain, trade, and markets!
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0:00 Subscribe to the Channel!
0:52 190 Corn Yield?
5:40 US Weather
7:28 Big Brazil Corn Crop
9:14 Farmer Sentiment
11:35 Biofuel and Senate
🌽 Corn Yield Chatter Heats Up! 🔥
There's buzz in the trade about US corn yields. Some analysts suggest yields could be 2–5% above trend, placing the national average anywhere from 184.6 to 190.1 bpa. But others argue that such numbers are unlikely due to record acreage (95.2M planted) and reduced input use from farmers. I’m not picking a side—but the chatter is loud enough to mention. 👂💬
🌦️ Weather Watch: Scattered Rains & Heat ☀️
Over the next 5 days, only scattered rainfall is expected—mainly in Minnesota & Wisconsin.
🌀 Euro vs. GFS disagreement: Euro model = wetter outlook
GFS model = dry in the east
🔥 Above-normal temps will persist, and the 8–14 day forecast suggests more heat (though ensemble data is cooler).
🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Update: StoneX Raises the Bar 📈
StoneX now pegs Brazil’s corn crop at a record 136.1 MMT, up from 134 MMT, with the second crop at 108.2 MMT.
🫘 Brazil soybean forecast also bumped up slightly to 168.8 MMT.
🇺🇸 For reference, USDA’s Brazil corn estimate is still at 130 MMT—that’s a 240M bushel difference! USDA & CONAB update next week.
📉 Farmer Sentiment Drops on Trade Worries 🧠
The Purdue/CME Ag Barometer fell to 146 in June, down 12 points from May.
🌍 Main concern? Ag exports.
46% believe Trump’s tariffs will hurt income.
27% believe they’ll help.
🛢️ Biofuel Battle: Big Oil vs. Farmers ⚔️
A fight is brewing over the 45Z tax credit.
Farm groups want it limited to feedstocks from North America 🌎
The oil industry opposes this, saying it would raise fuel prices ⛽
👉 This policy would boost soybean oil demand and align with Trump’s “America First” agenda. 🇺🇸
🔔 Don't forget to like, subscribe, and drop your thoughts in the comments! Let's talk grain markets! 🌾🗣️
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0:00 Corn Ratings Improve
3:15 USDA Snoozefest
8:39 US Weather
10:19 Big Brazil Corn Crop
11:44 Cattle and Mexico Border
13:03 Grain Shipments
14:22 Flash Sale
🌽 Crop Conditions Improve! USDA Surprises & Brazil Corn Booms! 🌱
👋 Welcome back! In this update, we’re diving into the latest crop condition ratings, trade surprises from the USDA, weather outlooks, and key developments out of Brazil and the southern US border. Let’s dig in! 🚜📊
🌽 Corn Conditions Climb
National corn rated 73% good-to-excellent 📈 — best since 2020!
Trade expected 70%… surprise!
Only 5% of the crop is poor/very poor 🚫
🌱 Soybeans Steady
66% good-to-excellent, unchanged and above the 5-year average
📉 Futures Pressure
New crop corn flirting with fresh lows this morning as ratings improve…
📋 USDA June 30th Report: Mostly a Snoozer
Corn acres: 95.2M vs. 95.3M est.
Soybean acres: 83.4M vs. 83.5M est.
Corn stocks in line ✅, soy and wheat stocks a touch high
🌤️ Weather Outlook
Dry week ahead, especially for central and eastern Corn Belt 🔥
Western Iowa and Minnesota get the best rain
8–14 day forecast looks wetter 🌧️ (Euro model more optimistic than GFS)
Heat stays for now, but relief may come next week 🌡️
🇧🇷 Brazil Corn Surprise
AgRural bumps total output to 130.6 MMT 🚛
Safrinha corn: record 103.4 MMT
Harvest pace still behind last year (18% vs 49%) ⏳
Big supply, but delays persist…
🐄 Feeder Cattle Border Reopens
USDA starts gradual reopening for Mexican imports 🐮
First port: Douglas, AZ—more to follow
Screwworm progress equals cautious optimism
Market already supported by lowest herd since 1950s 🔥
🚢 Export Inspections
Corn: 1.4 MMT down 9% vs last week, but +65% YoY
Soybeans: 224K MT, soft vs last year
Wheat: 434K MT, strong print! 💪
📦 Flash Sale!
204,000 MT of soybean cake and meal sold to unknown destinations
🧠 Tap into the trends and don’t miss a beat — subscribe for more updates!
💬 What do YOU think the markets will do next? Drop your take in the comments below!
GrainMarkets #Corn #Soybeans #USDA #CropProgress #AgNews #BrazilCorn #Weather #Exports #FeederCattle #Farming
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0:00 Intro
0:40 Corn and Soybean Bounce
2:00 Hot and Dry
3:59 The Funds
6:11 USDA Preview
7:40 Brazil Harvest
8:52 Record-High Stock Market
11:24 Flash Sale
🎥 Corn & Soybeans Bounce Back + USDA Reports & Brazil Harvest Update! 🌽📈🌎
👋 Hey there, grain market watchers! In this video, we’re covering all the BIG moves from Friday’s trade, including a nice rebound in corn and soybean futures, updates from the USDA, and what’s happening with Brazil’s delayed safrinha corn harvest. Let’s dive in! 👇
🌽 Grain Markets Rebound
After tagging multi-month lows earlier this week, Dec25 corn climbed back 6¢ to $4.27/bu, while Nov25 soybeans added ~8¢ to settle near $10.25/bu.
✅ Improved US–China trade sentiment
📉 Weakening US dollar
📊 Stock market rally
☀️ Corn Belt Weather Outlook
The 7-day outlook calls for minimal rain across key US growing areas.
📍 Illinois, southern Iowa, and Indiana especially dry
🔥 Temps expected to run 2.9°F above normal (CropProphet)
🌧️ Long-range models hint at more rain—but will it be enough?
💰 Fund Positioning (CFTC)
"The Funds" are still bearish:
🔻 Sold 6k corn contracts last week
📉 Total of 321k corn contracts sold since mid-April
🌱 Net sellers of 27k soybeans
🌾 Net buyers of 10k SRW wheat
📊 USDA Reports Drop at 11am CST
Planted Acreage & Quarterly Stocks on deck!
🌽 Corn acreage expected slightly higher vs. March
🌱 Soybean acreage likely to rise too
📉 Corn stocks seen down ~7% YoY
📈 Soy stocks up 1%—a 5-year high
🌾 Wheat stocks could be up 20%!
🇧🇷 Brazil’s Safrinha Corn Delayed
Harvest is way behind:
🕐 Just 19.5% harvested vs. 47% last year
🌧️ Wet April/May = soggy fields, high moisture
📦 Slower progress, but record crop of 103.2mmt still expected
📈 Equity Markets Soar
🚀 S&P 500 closes at an all-time high (6,173)
📊 Nasdaq & Dow also post gains
💬 Investors growing used to Trump’s trade strategy
💵 Fed hints at possible rate cuts = bullish sentiment
🫘 Soybean Flash Sale to Mexico!
📦 119,746mt (4 mil bushels) sold
📅 Delivery in 2024/25 marketing year
📈 Soybean sales up 11% YoY so far!
📢 Don’t forget to LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE 🔔, and drop a comment with your thoughts on the upcoming USDA reports!
🌱 Stay smart. Stay informed. Stay hedged. 💼📉
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🇦🇷 Argentina Rushes Exports Ahead of Tariff Expiry
Crop traders in Argentina are rushing to secure export licenses before tariff relief ends on June 30. President Javier Milei’s temporary cuts—🎯 soybean meal/oil from 31% to 24.5% and 🌽 corn from 12% to 9.5%—sparked a surge in exports, making June the busiest month since he took office. The move aimed to support farmers and boost foreign reserves ahead of October’s midterms. 🚜💰 Ag groups are urging an extension.
🌧️ Rain Brings Drought Relief Across U.S. Corn Belt
Last week’s rainfall helped ease drought conditions across major growing regions like Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Minnesota. 🙌 Just 6% of the Corn Belt remains in drought. Nebraska and the High Plains also saw some improvements.
📊 Drought by Crop:
- Corn: 16%
- Soybeans: 12%
- Winter Wheat: 20%
- Spring Wheat: 25%
- Cattle Areas: 18%
📉 U.S. Export Sales Dip
- Corn: 741,200mt (29M bu), ↓18% from last week; 🇨🇴 Colombia top buyer.
- Soybeans: 402,900mt (15M bu), ↓16% weekly but ↑83% vs. 4-week avg; 🇳🇱 Netherlands top buyer.
- Wheat: 255,200mt (9M bu), ↓40% from last week; 🇯🇵 Japan top buyer.
📅 Key USDA Report Coming Monday
The USDA will release the Planted Acreage and Grain Stocks report Monday morning. Expectations:
- Slight increases in 🌽 corn and 🌱 soybean acreage
- Corn stocks: ↓7% YoY
- Soybean stocks: ↑1%, 5-year high
- Wheat stocks: ↑20%, 4-year high
📉 Market action suggests traders expect a bearish report.
🇷🇺 Russia’s Banking Sector in Trouble?
Analysts warn of a potential financial crisis by 2026. Rising bad debt, high interest rates, and borrowers falling behind on loans are fueling a credit crunch. 💸
Despite record bank profits in 2024, inflation and war-focused spending are straining the private sector. Trillions of rubles in bad loans may already be in the system.
🚢 Soybean Flash Sale & Egypt Corn Order
- USDA reported a 110,000mt corn sale to 🇪🇬 Egypt for 2024/25.
- Cumulative soybean sales are up 11% YoY for the current marketing year.
☀️ Weekend Weather Outlook: Warm & Wet
Rainfall is expected across the 🌽 Midwest through Sunday, with above-normal temps.
Agronomists are confident: subsoil moisture is strong going into July, a critical month for corn growth. 🌾🌦️
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🇧🇷 Brazil Ups Biofuel Mandates
Starting August 1, Brazil will increase ethanol in gasoline from 27% to 30% and biodiesel in diesel from 14% to 15%. This move could make Brazil self-sufficient in gasoline for the first time in 15 years. Ethanol mainly comes from sugarcane 🌱, but corn-based ethanol 🌽 is growing fast. About 70% of Brazil's biodiesel is made from soybeans.
🌧️ Soaking Rains Ahead for Corn Belt
Heavy rainfall is expected across the Corn Belt over the next 7 days, with precipitation forecast at 152% of normal. The Upper Midwest—especially eastern South Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin—will get the most rain. Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana will also see showers. Temperatures will be warmer in the Eastern Corn Belt and cooler west of I-29. Overall, temps will run about 0.8°F above normal.
💵 Tariff Uncertainty Clouds Fed Outlook
Fed Chair Jerome Powell told lawmakers it's tough to predict how tariffs will impact inflation. Despite lower inflation and pressure from President Trump to cut rates, Powell urged caution, citing a strong economy and uncertain trade effects. Some Fed governors support a rate cut as early as July, but Powell warned inflation may rebound later this year. Meanwhile, Trump continues to criticize high interest rates for increasing government debt costs.
🛢️ Ethanol Output Slips, But Remains Strong
US ethanol production dipped 2.5% last week to 1.1 million barrels/day but is still up 3.6% from a year ago. Ethanol stocks climbed to 24.4 million barrels—well above seasonal norms. That’s up 1.2% from last week and 4.2% from last year. Margins, however, softened slightly, according to Reuters. 📉
📉 Dollar Drops as Tensions Ease
The US dollar weakened this week following a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. Falling oil prices also removed a key support for the dollar. With Middle East tensions calming, the greenback’s direction now depends more on domestic data and Fed policy. Markets are currently pricing in 60 basis points of rate cuts by year-end. The Dollar Index is down nearly 10% in 2025, hitting its lowest point since March 2022.
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🕊️ Israel-Iran Truce Holds
The ceasefire between Israel and Iran remains intact. 🌙 Overnight calm continues, and international energy traders are closely watching developments. A Financial Times article explains that a symbolic, pre-communicated strike on a U.S. base in Qatar signaled the conflict would avoid damaging Iran’s key oil infrastructure. ⚠️ Fears about the Straits of Hormuz being closed — and disrupting global oil flow — were eased. Iran’s ally, 🇨🇳 China, would’ve been the hardest hit, giving Iran incentive to avoid escalation.
🌽 July Corn Hits New Lows
July corn futures traded to fresh life-of-contract lows Tuesday, breaking through levels not seen since August 2024. 📉 With first notice day approaching Friday, volume is shifting to the September and December contracts. Hedge funds have mostly rolled out, but ~200,000 contracts remain open. The July–September spread remains inverted, and some in the Eastern Corn Belt believe this could flip to a carry amid continued fund selling and ample commercial supplies. 🏦🚜
🇧🇷 Brazil’s Corn Crop Breaks Records
Brazil is on track for a record-large second corn crop at 123.3 MMT, per Agroconsult. That’s 9.2% higher than May’s estimate and nearly 20% more than last year’s output. 🌧️ Favorable weather in April and May — especially in Mato Grosso — is boosting yields by nearly 12%. However, this bumper crop is raising concerns about added pressure on already weak domestic prices and sluggish export demand. 💰📦
🚢 Corn Flash Sale to Mexico
USDA reported a big corn sale Tuesday: 630,000 MT (25 million bushels) sold to 🇲🇽 Mexico.
554,400 MT (22M bu) for 2025/26
75,600 MT (3M bu) for 2026/27
📊 This supports demand sentiment but hasn’t turned the tide in weak futures yet.
🌱 Soybean Oil Fills Chart Gaps
Soybean oil has slumped, dragged down by falling NYMEX diesel prices (down 40¢ since Sunday). 📉 It’s now testing chart gaps opened during the recent biofuel euphoria. Traders expect those gaps to fill — notably down to 51.19 in the December contract. Smaller gaps between 53.46 and 53.62 are also being eyed. 📈 Technical traders are positioning cautiously with tight stop-losses around those levels. 🧮
🌤️ Weather Outlook: Warm but Moist
Weather remains mostly non-threatening through early July. ☀️ Both the Euro and GFS models have backed off earlier rain projections, but 6–10-day forecasts still look hot and moist. CropProphet’s 15-day outlook is friendly for soybeans 🌱 and mixed for corn 🌽, with the Upper Midwest benefiting most. However, corn still shows slight downside vs. USDA estimates due to last week’s crop rating drop.
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🌍 Market Surprise: Weakness Despite geopolitics, traders were caught off guard Monday. Despite major geopolitical events over the weekend, markets weakened instead of rallying. Crude oil briefly hit ~$78—the highest since January—but reversed sharply after breaking Friday’s ~$74 close. 🚫📈
With energy markets losing steam, grain futures—linked through biofuels—also fell under pressure. 🌾🔻
🌽 Corn Conditions Dip US corn crop conditions fell for the first time this season: 🔹 70% rated good/excellent, down from 72% last week 🔹 Still above the 5-year average of 64%
Biggest declines: Indiana, Kentucky, Nebraska. Outside the Corn Belt: sharp drops in Colorado, Texas, and North Dakota. 🌦️
🌱 Soybean Ratings Hold Steady Soybeans remained at 66% good/excellent, above the 63% 5-year average. While most Corn Belt states saw declines, only Michigan and Ohio were below the national average. 🌿✅
🌾 Wheat Ratings Slide Again: Winter wheat: 🔻 49% good/excellent, down from 52% 🔻 Below analysts’ expectations ⚠️ Harvest is at 19%—behind the 28% average.
Spring wheat also declined: 🔻 54% good/excellent vs. 57% last week. 📉 Matches 5-year average but misses expectations Montana and South Dakota trailed the national average. 📊
🚢 Export Summary 📦 Corn: 1.5mmt exported, down 13% vs. last week, but up 28% YoY.
📦 Soybeans: 192,890mt ▪️ Below expectations ▪️ -14% WoW, -45% YoY
📦 Wheat: 254,782mt ▪️ -34% WoW, -26% YoY
💰 Fund Positions & CFTC Data: Funds grew more bearish on corn: 🔻 Net short increased by 19k to 169k contracts—the most since September.
Meanwhile: 🟢 Net buyers of 27k soybean and 13k SRW wheat contracts 📉 SRW net short now 74k—the smallest since February.
Funds were once seen as “indecisive,” but the growing short positions suggest a clear bearish bias. With the CN:CU spread nearly at carry, rolling shorts to Sept becomes cheaper—adding fuel to their stance. 📉📊
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0:00 Iran and Markets
3:02 Soybean and Wheat Rally
4:45 Drought + US Weather
9:12 Export Sales
10:31 Ethanol Production
11:32 Flash Sale
12:02 Cattle on Feed
🔥 Markets React to Middle East Tensions 🌍💥
Oil prices surged Sunday night after U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, with President Trump warning of further action and Iran vowing “everlasting consequences.” Despite the drama, no physical disruptions to crude shipments through the vital Strait of Hormuz have occurred. 🌊⛽️ Some analysts say the recent $10/bbl spike is already pricing in risk. Grain traders? Not impressed—wheat opened lower despite geopolitical fireworks. 📉
🌱 Soybeans & Wheat Hit Highs... Then Fade 📈
Friday brought fresh multi-month highs in soybean and spring wheat futures! 🚀
• Soybeans (Nov25) nearly posted a calendar-year high, fueled by bullish biofuel news and a strong Brazilian real 🇧🇷
• Spring Wheat (Dec25) led the wheat complex higher on Middle East tension and U.S. crop concerns 🌾
But both markets faded into the weekend.
🌧️ Drought Conditions Improve in Corn Belt 🌽
USDA’s latest drought monitor shows big progress:
• Only 7.5% of the Corn Belt is in drought vs. 32% earlier this year!
• IA, WI, MN saw improvement. 🌧️
• ND and NE also got relief
• But KS? Slight deterioration 😕
🔹 Corn: 17% in drought
🔹 Soybeans: 13%
🔹 Winter Wheat: 14%
🔹 Spring Wheat: 22%
🔹 Cattle: 19%
🚢 Export Sales Rebound 📦
• Corn: 903,800 mt—Japan 🇯🇵 leads
• Soybeans: 539,500 mt—Germany 🇩🇪 surprise buyer
• Wheat: 427,200 mt—Taiwan 🇹🇼 tops the list
Corn sales are now +26% vs. last year! 🟢
🍺 Ethanol Stays Strong, Margins Weaken
• Production: 1.11mil bbl/day (↓1% WoW, ↑5% YoY)
• Stocks: 24.12mil bbl (seasonally high)
• Margins slipping per Reuters 💸
Still, output remains near record highs. 🚛
🐄 Cattle on Feed: Neutral to Bullish 📋
• Total: 11.4 million head (↓1% YoY)
• Placements: 92% of last year (bullish surprise)
• Marketings: 90% of last year
Ongoing tight supplies continue to support the market. 📈
👇 Don’t forget to like, subscribe, and drop your market take in the comments! 👇
🔔 Stay informed, stay sharp.
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0:00 Housekeeping
1:06 MAHA and Farm Groups
3:45 45Z News and Tax Package
5:56 US Weather Forecasts
9:11 Brazil Currency
10:48 Meal Flash Sale
🔥 Big Moves in DC, Weather, and the Dollar! 🌽💥
🌱 🚨 MAHA Report Pushback!
Over 250 ag groups—like the Farm Bureau—are calling out the MAHA report for misleading claims about pesticides 🚜. They’ve urged the commission to open up for public comment and include real voices from the field 👨🌾. The next report drops in August!
💸 Tax Talk: 45Z Gets a Twist!
The Senate’s version of Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” just landed. It extends the 45Z tax credit but slaps a 20% penalty on foreign feedstocks 🌍. Plus, corn ethanol gets a win with the removal of land use penalties, and livestock manure-based fuels get the green light 🐄⚡. EPA vs. Congress? Mixed signals abound 🤷♂️.
🌧️ Weather Wobbles & Crop Outlook
Forecasts turned slightly drier, with GFS data now calling for 84% of normal rainfall this week. Temps look 🔥 above average across the Corn Belt over the next two weeks. But don’t count out more rain during the extended outlook.
💵 Dollar Drops = Soybean Boost
The US dollar just hit a 7-month low vs. the Brazilian Real 📉. Why? Investors chasing higher returns in Brazil, where interest rates are sky-high 📈. A stronger Real = less selling by Brazilian farmers, which helps US soybeans shine on the global market 🌎🌱.
🚢 Flash Sale Alert!
US exporters just sold 120,000mt of soybean cake & meal to unknown destinations 🌟. That makes 400,000mt sold via flash sales this year—demand is alive and well! 🫘
👉 Stay tuned for more updates—and don’t forget to like, comment, and subscribe for the latest grain market insights! 📲💬
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0:00 Corn Belt Heat
2:45 Bean Oil, Meal
6:07 Crop Ratings and Progress
8:35 Corn Shipments are Still Strong
9:50 NOPA Crush
11:06 Russia Wheat
12:09 Middle East Update
🌡️ Scorching Temps & Surging Soy Oil! 🚀
🔥 🌽 US Corn Belt Heats Up
Temps across the Corn Belt are expected to run 6.4°F above normal this week, according to GFS and CropProphet data. Highs in the 90s possible by Sunday! But don't panic—rainfall remains above normal in both the short and medium term. 🌧️
🛢️ 🌱 Soybean Oil Explodes Higher
Soybean oil futures 📈 hit a 20-month high and traded limit-up again Monday following the EPA's aggressive biofuel blending targets. Meanwhile, soybeans spiked but closed flat, and corn dropped ~10¢ on weather pressure. See updated charts for soybean oil and meal. 📊
🌾 Crop Conditions Update
✅ Corn: Rated 72% good-to-excellent (up 1%)
📉 Soybeans: Dropped to 66% good-to-excellent
📉 Winter Wheat: Fell to 52% G/E, despite being best for the week since 2020
✅ Spring Wheat: Climbed to 57% G/E—beating expectations again!
💡 Big moves seen in states like ND, TX, WI, MI, and NC.
🚢 US Export Inspections
🌽 Corn exports: 1.7 mmt—near high end of expectations
🌱 Soybeans: Weak at just 215k mt
🌾 Wheat: Up on the week but still behind last year
🏭 May NOPA Crush Report
US soybean crush hit 192.8 million bushels—a May record 📅
🥫 Soybean oil stocks dropped to 1.4 billion lbs, the lowest May figure since 2004
📉 Both metrics came in under trade expectations.
🌍 Russia Wheat Outlook Mixed
➕ Sovecon boosts forecast to 82.8mmt
⚠️ Rostov region declares agricultural emergency amid drought
🌾 Deputy PM sees 135mmt total grain output for 2025
🌍 Middle East Tensions Rise Again
President Trump has urged evacuation of Tehran. 🛫
Iran signals possible nuclear talks—but only if US avoids Israel conflict
Israel continues strikes. Analysts warn of major trade & oil disruptions if escalation continues.💥
Crude trades near $71/bbl—down from recent highs.
Smash that 👍 Like, hit 🔔 Subscribe, and let us know what YOU think in the comments! 👇
Stay informed. Stay sharp. 🌾
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0:00 Biofuel Blockbuster
4:06 Middle East and Crude
5:59 US Weather and Market Impact
9:40 The Funds
10:31 Brazil Corn Harvest
🎥 EPA Biofuel Boost, Middle East Tensions & Corn Market Moves! 🌽🛢️⚔️
📈 BIG news from the EPA!
The agency just proposed new biofuel blending targets, raising total mandates to 24.02B gallons in 2026 and 24.46B in 2027. The new quotas fall short of industry recommendations but deliver a major win for biodiesel, with the biomass-based diesel target jumping to 5.61B gallons – above both current and proposed levels. Soybean oil futures exploded 🚀, and soybeans rallied to a three-week high.
🌍 War in the Middle East Intensifies
Israel and Iran continue trading deadly missile attacks. Casualties are rising on both sides, and President Trump has warned that US involvement remains on the table. Energy markets reacted fast—crude oil surged 7%, and natural gas climbed 3%.
🌦️ Weekend Rainfall in the Corn Belt
Scattered storms hit parts of the Midwest, with radar showing activity across the Dakotas, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois. Forecasts show 1"+ rain expected across much of the Corn Belt this week. Corn futures are trading lower to start Monday.
📊 Fund Positioning Update
The latest CFTC report shows money managers growing more bearish on corn, pushing their net short to 150K contracts—the most since September! Meanwhile, funds added soybeans and wheat.
🇧🇷 Brazil's Second Crop Corn Harvest Slows
Harvest progress remains sluggish at just 5.6% complete, compared to 14% last year. Delays from late planting and poor weather continue to hamper fieldwork.
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0:00 Friendly Corn Numbers (USDA)
4:12 Crude SURGES
6:19 US Dollar is Weak
9:25 US Drought / Weather
14:46 Biofuel News / RVOs
16:49 Export Sales
18:40 ICE and Ag
📊 USDA Report, Soaring Oil Prices, & Dollar Dive! | Market Recap 🌽🛢️💵
Welcome back! In today’s update, we’re breaking down a packed Thursday full of market-moving headlines 👇
🌽 USDA Report Recap
No shocks here! USDA raised old crop corn exports 📈 and trimmed carryout, while leaving soybeans unchanged. Wheat exports saw a bump too. Despite the friendly tone, corn couldn’t catch a bid. Traders seem laser-focused on crop weather now! 🌦️
🛢️ Crude Oil Surges 🚨
WTI crude spiked nearly 12% overnight after Israel launched major strikes on Iran, hitting nuclear and military targets. Iran confirmed damage at Natanz. With tensions in the Strait of Hormuz boiling over, global oil markets are on edge. ⚠️
💵 US Dollar Hits 3-Year Low
The dollar dropped to its weakest level since April 2022! The euro and pound surged as inflation and jobless data added pressure on the Fed to cut rates at its June 18 meeting. 📉
🌾 Drought Monitor Highlights
Corn Belt weather was a mixed bag. Some areas improved, others worsened. Currently:
→ Corn in drought: 18%
→ Soybeans: 13%
→ Wheat: up to 20%
→ Cattle: 20% 🐄
🧪 Biofuel Mandates Incoming
The EPA will announce 2026–27 blending targets today. Industry groups want to raise biomass-based diesel to 5.25B gallons, but the final target may fall short. Ethanol and biodiesel markets are watching closely. ⛽
📉 Disappointing Export Sales
Corn, soybean, and wheat export sales all fell short. Soybeans hit a marketing-year low. 📦 Weak demand continues to weigh on prices.
👷♂️ Immigration Crackdown Hits Ag
An ICE raid in Nebraska led to over 70 detentions at a meat plant. Labor shortages are growing in ag-heavy states like California too. Over half of US crop workers are undocumented. 🌱
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0:00 ADM Rug Pull
3:17 Kim Reynolds and Eminent Domain
4:39 US Weather
5:53 USDA Preview
8:46 Record Ethanol Production
10:00 Weaker Dollar?
11:30 US/China
🌱 Soybean Bids Crash in the Midwest!
Cash soybean prices took a nosedive in Illinois. 😳 ADM’s Decatur location slashed bids by 65¢ and flipped from July25 to Nov25 futures with a negative basis. Other processors quickly followed. ADM says they’ve got plenty of beans and expect a big crop 🌾.
🚫 Iowa Eminent Domain Bill Vetoed
Gov. Kim Reynolds vetoed a bill limiting eminent domain for carbon pipelines. Critics say she sided with big donors over landowners 💰🚜. The move angered Republicans and sparked calls for a special session. Will it happen? 🤔
🌧️ Corn Belt Weather Whiplash
The GFS outlook just flipped again! Wetter in the short term, but drier in the 8-14 day range ⛅. CropProphet pegs corn belt rain at 116% of normal early, then just 72% next week. Market? Still yawning 😴.
📊 USDA Report Incoming
Today’s WASDE 📉 drops at 11am CST. Traders expect lower US corn ending stocks due to higher exports. No big moves expected for soybeans or wheat. Watch for Brazil corn surprises 🌽👀.
🍻 Ethanol Production Hits Record High
US ethanol output surged to an all-time high last week 🚀. Stocks dropped to late-December levels, and margins improved 💵. Could this support corn prices?
💵 Paul Tudor Jones: USD to Slide?
Legendary investor Paul Tudor Jones sees the US dollar falling 10% over the next year 📉. He cites a steeper yield curve and a possible dovish Fed under Trump’s next pick. The dollar index is already down nearly 8% YTD 😬.
🤝 New US-China Trade Deal
China will ship more rare earths & magnets ⚙️. In return, the US will ease some export controls and allow more Chinese students. But Trump’s 55% tariff on Chinese goods stays in place 📦🇨🇳. Final approval still pending!
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📢 Stay tuned for WASDE updates and more market analysis!
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0:00 US/China Deal
2:31 Drier Forecast, Iowa??
5:14 USDA Report Tomorrow
8:48 US/Mexico
9:57 John Deere, Right to Repair Stuff
📢 US-China Reach Trade Consensus!
After 20+ hours of talks in London, US and Chinese officials say they’ve struck a framework deal to implement the Geneva consensus! 🇺🇸🤝🇨🇳 China will accelerate rare earth exports, and the US is easing some export controls. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says the deal adds “meat on the bones” of last month’s tariff truce. Next up: Trump and Xi review the agreement.
🌦 Corn Belt Turns Drier
The latest Euro and GFS models shifted drier for central and western Corn Belt states — especially Iowa. Forecast maps from CropProphet show how rainfall expectations dropped significantly overnight. Temps are also trending above normal into the 6–10 and 8–14 day periods. 🌡
📊 WASDE & Crop Production Report Coming!
USDA drops fresh data this Thursday at 11am CST! Traders expect a cut to corn ending stocks, driven by stronger exports. Not much change is expected for soybeans or wheat.
🛠 US-Mexico Steel Deal Close
US and Mexico are nearing a deal to reduce steel tariffs! A new quota system would allow tariff-free volumes based on past trade. Mexico—this year’s top US corn buyer—is calling the tariffs unjustified. 📉🌽
⚖️ FTC vs Deere Moves Forward
A federal judge says the FTC’s antitrust lawsuit against John Deere will proceed. The case centers on “right to repair” restrictions. Five US states are backing the FTC. Deere says the claims are vague and without merit. 🚜⚖️
👇 Drop your thoughts in the comments and don’t forget to like & subscribe for more grain market breakdowns! 💬📈
GrainMarkets #CornBelt #TradeNews #WASDE #RightToRepair #USChina #USMexico #JohnDeere #CropForecast #AgNews 🌽📰
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0:00 Corn Tumbles
1:58 Too Much Rain for a Rally
6:24 Crop Progress & Conditions
9:36 Brazil Corn Update
11:04 US/China Talks
12:13 Grain Shipments
🌽 Corn Futures Drop Amid Bearish Weather & Export Concerns 🌧️📉
📉 Market Moves
Corn futures fell sharply on Monday!
• July '25 dropped 9¢ to ~$4.34
• Dec '25 dropped 11¢ to ~$4.38
Pressure came from a bearish US weather outlook and slowing export demand as Brazil’s second crop harvest ramps up. Private estimates peg fund net short positions at 125k contracts. 📊
🌦️ Weather Watch
Rain returns later this week for parts of SD, MN, IA & WI, with widespread moisture expected in the 5–10 day outlook. Over the last 14 days, Corn Belt rainfall hit 107% of normal. CropProphet data suggests the drought threat is shrinking—but remember, July is still critical for corn yield! 🌧️🌽
🚜 Crop Conditions
US corn: 71% good/excellent, up from 69%
Soybeans: 68% good/excellent, slightly better than last week
Winter wheat: 54% good/excellent, best since 2019
Spring wheat: 53% good/excellent, rising for the second week
🌎 Brazil Harvest Update
Brazil’s 2nd crop corn harvest is off to the slowest start since 2021—only 1.9% complete. Excess rain and late planting continue to delay progress.
🤝 US-China Trade Talks
Talks extend into Day 2! Discussions center on export controls and rare earth minerals. The US may ease tech export restrictions in exchange for more mineral access from China. Officials described the mood as constructive. 🌐
🚢 Export Inspection Data
• Corn: 1.7 MMT—up 1% vs. last week, 24% YoY
• Soybeans: 547k MT—up 81% WoW, 134% YoY
• Wheat: 291k MT—down, but early in the marketing year
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0:00 Boring Weather Market
3:28 US/China Update
6:30 "The Funds"
7:41 China Pathogen Smugglers
8:40 Fake Screwworm Investigation
🌧️ Rain Falls, Markets Stir, and Trade Talks Heat Up! ⚖️🌽
📍 Weekend Weather Recap
Rain favored southern and eastern Corn Belt states including Missouri, IL, IN, OH, KY, TN — plus parts of KS, OK & north TX. While the west looks drier, both the Euro and GFS models suggest near-average rainfall over the next two weeks. 🌦️ Temps stay near-normal this week, with warmer weather possible 8–14 days out. Overall? A benign weather setup to start the week. 📉
🌐 Rare Earths, EVs, and US-China Trade Talks
China just approved rare earth mineral exports following a call between Trump and Xi. 🌍 Trade talks kick off today in London as demand surges for key materials used in robotics and EVs. ⚙️🔋
📊 Money Moves: COT Report Highlights
"The Funds" slashed their net short in corn by 44k contracts — largest short since Sept! 🌽 They also trimmed soybean and spring wheat positions.
🧪 Fungal Pathogen Fears Debunked
Experts downplay the threat of a crop-damaging pathogen smuggled into the US, saying it’s already here, manageable, and not a major food safety risk. 🌾🧬
🐄 Market Manipulation? Screwworm Rumor Sparks Probe
Missouri investigates a fake press release claiming New World screwworm was detected. 📉 The false alarm crashed cattle futures and now R-CALF USA wants the CFTC to dig deeper. 🕵️♂️
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0:00 Soybean/Corn Price Action and Trump
5:24 US Weather
8:45 Cattle Prices Surge
11:46 Export Sales
14:19 Trade Deficit
16:37Jobless Claims
🌱 Soybeans Climb on Trade Hope
Soybean futures popped on Thursday! 📈 The July25 contract gained nearly 7¢, settling near $10.52 after a phone call between President Trump and President Xi reignited optimism around US-China trade talks. 🤝 A face-to-face meeting could be next!
🌾 Grains Mixed on Geopolitics
Chicago wheat added 2¢ 📊 amid rising Ukraine-Russia tensions, while corn futures ticked higher 🚜 but were capped by sluggish US export demand.
🔥 Drought Monitor Update
The Corn Belt stayed mostly dry last week, worsening drought in IA, IL, MO & WI. 🌵 But only 10% of the region remains in drought—down from 32% earlier this year! The High Plains got relief thanks to widespread rains. ☔
📊 Current Drought Impact:
• Corn: 21%
• Soybeans: 16%
• Winter Wheat: 12%
• Spring Wheat: 19%
• Cattle: 21%
🐮 Cattle Prices Hit Record Highs!
Feeder & live cattle contracts soared to new records! 🚀 Front-month live cattle jumped $4.50 to $222.90, while feeders surged $5.28 to $309.15. Strong fat cattle prices, tight supplies & current feedlots = 🔥 fundamentals.
🚢 US Export Sales Recap
• 🌽 Corn: 37M bu – Up 3% W/W, Mexico top buyer
• 🌱 Soybeans: 7M bu – Up 33% W/W, Bangladesh top buyer
• 🌾 Wheat (25/26): 16M bu – Down 37% W/W, unknown buyers dominate
📉 Record Drop in US Trade Deficit
The US trade gap fell by a record $76.7B in April, landing at $61.6B. 📉 Imports plunged 16.3% while exports rose 3% as businesses braced for tariffs. Biggest deficit drops came vs. China, the EU, and Vietnam. 🌍
📈 Jobless Claims Rise Again
Initial jobless claims rose to 247K—highest since October. 📊 Continued claims dipped slightly but still sit above 2024 levels. Slowing hiring, trade anxiety, and lower consumer demand = labor market stress. 😬
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0:00 China Problems
3:04 Trump and China
4:34 US Weather Update
8:26 China Crop Pathogen Smugglers
10:37 Ethanol Production
12:39 NOAA Forecasters
🌾 China’s Wheat Woes, Trade Tensions & Weather Swings! 🇨🇳🌦️
🔥 Extreme Heat Hits China's Wheat Crop
China’s key wheat regions just saw their hottest May since 1961. Some fields suffered yield losses of up to 50% due to drought! 😳🚜 Farmers with irrigation held steady, but questions linger about potential wheat imports.
🛑 Trump vs. Xi: Trade Talks Stalled
President Trump called Xi “extremely hard to deal with” as negotiations stall. 😤📞 A possible call could revive talks, but both sides are throwing blame after a May truce unraveled. Stay tuned for updates on this tense trade drama. 🎭📉
🌧️ Corn Belt Forecast Flip
Yesterday’s “ultra-dry” GFS outlook? ❌ Probably wrong! New data suggests 82% of normal rainfall in the 8-14 day window. Still, the west looks dry in both GFS and Euro models. 🌽⚠️
🧪 Crop Sabotage? Chinese Nationals Charged
Two Chinese citizens face charges for smuggling a crop-damaging fungus—Fusarium graminearum—into the US. 🚨🌾 This pathogen can wreck wheat and poison livestock. Officials say the suspects had studied the fungus back in China. Yikes.
⛽ Ethanol Record!
US ethanol production just hit a weekly all-time high: 1.1M barrels/day! 📈💥 Stocks also surged to 24.4M barrels. Strong margins are back, according to Reuters.
🌀 NOAA Fully Staffed Ahead of Hurricane Season
Despite federal layoffs, NOAA is ready. 💪🌪️ Commerce Secretary Lutnick says critical positions are being filled after a hiring freeze threatened weather coverage. With a wild hurricane season ahead, that’s good news. 🌊🌬️
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0:00 GFS Turns Dry
3:13 Wildfire Smoke
6:38 Ag Barometer
8:59 Ukraine Grain Update
10:20 White House and Trade
🌦️ Weather Models Diverge & Canadian Smoke Returns! 🌫️
🌽 Forecast Shift?
Some US weather models have trended drier! The latest GFS run shows minimal Corn Belt rainfall in the 8-14 day outlook. But don’t jump the gun—Euro offers a wetter view with near-normal precipitation. Recent rains hit NE, IA, MN, KS, MO, WI & IL. Radar’s active again this morning.
🔥 Wildfire Smoke Update
Over 200 wildfires are burning in Canada, with smoke spreading as far south as the Gulf of Mexico. Minnesota is under a statewide air quality alert, while WI and MI face dangerous conditions. Smoke exposure isn't a crop killer short-term, but prolonged haze could hurt yields. 👃🚫🌱
🚜 Farmer Sentiment Rises!
The Ag Economy Barometer hit 158 in May—its highest since May 2021! Farmers are feeling better about both the present and future 📈. Worries about tariffs remain, but fewer producers expect major income hits. 🔍
🌾 Ukraine Crop Trouble
Ukraine's grain production could fall 10% this season due to weather delays and war disruptions. Oilseed production is also projected lower. Still, Black Sea wheat exports remain stable, and analysts expect nearly 41mmt in grain exports.
🤝 Trade Talks Heat Up
The White House is pushing for new trade agreements, urging partners to submit their best offers by today. Countries like Vietnam, Japan & India are in discussions. Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are set to return July 8, so negotiations are ramping up fast. 📅
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0:00 Rain on the Radar
2:58 Monday Selloff
4:38 Crop Progress & Conditions
11:11 Weaker US Dollar?
13:02 Crude Rally
14:21 Grain Shipments
🌧️ Stormy Skies and Slumping Soybeans! 🌾
🌩️ Weather Update
Radar lit up this morning across the western Corn Belt! Nebraska, Iowa, and parts of the Plains saw active storms. CropProphet expects 1.5" of rain this week, with more on the way next week. Temps look cool out west ❄️ and warm in the east 🔥 — but overall, this remains a non-bullish setup for grains. Some of the driest areas are finally catching a drink! 🌧️🌽
📉 Grain Market Moves
Soybeans slid to a 2-month low on improved Brazil outlook and China trade tensions.
Corn dipped as growing conditions improved.
Wheat bucked the trend, up on a weaker dollar 💵 and Ukraine/Russia tensions.
🌱 Crop Ratings Snapshot
Corn: 69% G/E—slight gain from last week, planting 93% done ✅
Soybeans: 67% G/E in initial rating, 84% planted
Winter Wheat: 52% G/E—best since 2019! 🌟
Spring Wheat: 50% G/E—up, but still well below average 📉
💵 Dollar Outlook
Wall Street banks like Goldman and Morgan Stanley expect a weaker dollar ahead, driven by Fed cuts and Trump’s economic playbook. Foreign currencies may get a boost! 📊📉
🛢️ Oil Bounces Back
Crude rallied 3% to $62.52/barrel 🚀 on OPEC+ decisions and a falling US rig count. Still down YTD, but experts say cuts could tighten supplies.
🚢 Export Action
Corn: 62M bu—beat expectations!
Soybeans: 10M bu—down from last year
Wheat: 20M bu—strong vs. a year ago
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0:00 Weather
3:39 "Mr. NICE GUY"
8:11 Export Sales
9:24 Brazil Corn Harvest
10:26 The Funds
11:27 Flash Sales
📉 Rain Returns, Trade Tensions Rise & Export Sales Slide 🌽🌧️🌎
👀 Here's what you need to know this week in the grain markets:
🌦️ Weekend Rain Recap & Forecast Outlook
Rainfall was limited to the southeastern Corn Belt with up to 1.5" in parts of IL, IN, OH, and KY. The rest of the region stayed dry, but buckle up — forecasts show widespread rain this week! CropProphet expects 1.8" average rain across US corn areas. 🌧️
🇨🇳 Trump vs. China: Trade Tensions Back On
Trump accused China of violating a trade deal and vowed not to be “Mr. NICE GUY” anymore. Visa revocations, chip export controls, and stalled talks sent a chill through markets. 🤝📉
📉 US Export Sales Fall
Corn: Down 23% W/W – 🇯🇵 Japan tops the list
Soybeans: Missed expectations – 🇲🇽 Mexico leads
Wheat: Weak but improved – 🇻🇪 Venezuela steps in
🇧🇷 Brazil Corn Harvest Lagging
Only 1.05% harvested vs. 2.7% LY. But crop size is up sharply:
Safrinha corn: 99.8 MMT (+11%)
Total corn: 126.9 MMT (+10%)
💰 Funds Shift Positions
The Funds trimmed corn shorts and went long in soybeans:
+5K corn 🟢
+30K soybeans (largest net long since Feb!) 🫘
+7K SRW wheat 🌾
🚢 Flash Corn Sale!
US exporters sold 210K mt to unknown destinations.
145K for '24/25 📅
65K for '25/26 🚢
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0:00 Spring Wheat Rally
3:13 Drought and AI Weather Model
7:43 More Tariff News
10:04 SRE News, Biofuel
12:12 Higher Biofuel Mandates?
15:24 Ethanol Production
16:48 Flash Sales
17:53 Russia Wheat
🌾 Spring Wheat Soars + Drought Moves + Biofuel Battles! ⚖️🔥
🚀 Markets on the Move:
Spring wheat futures surged to multi-week highs overnight! Jul25 hit its best level since April 17 📈 after the USDA rated the crop just 45% good-to-excellent — the worst start since 2021. Funds are still holding a record net short! 👀
🌧️ Drought Monitor Drama:
Rain boosted MN & WI, but dry pockets worsened in parts of IL, IN, MO & IA. The High Plains saw improvement thanks to rain + cool temps. Here’s where drought is hitting hardest:
🌽 Corn – 23%
🌱 Soybeans – 17%
🌾 Spring Wheat – 29%
🐄 Cattle – 23%
🧾 Tariff Twist!
Trump’s global tariffs are back on... for now. A federal court reinstated them temporarily while legal battles continue ⚖️. Could this be peak tariff fatigue in the markets?
⛽ Biofuel Backlash:
Trump's administration may approve backlogged refinery waivers — some dating to 2016. Analysts warn this could undercut ethanol & corn prices, setting a dangerous precedent for farmers. Meanwhile, new 2026 biofuel mandates are coming — industry insiders are pushing for 5.25 billion gallons to help grain demand.
🍻 Ethanol Update:
Production ticked up 1.9% last week to 1.06M bpd. Stocks fell slightly but remain above last year. Margins? Flat. 📊
🚢 Corn Flash Sales:
The US sold 8M bushels of corn — half to Mexico, half to “unknown.” Export demand showing signs of life!
🌍 Russian Wheat Outlook:
Sovecon bumped Russia’s export forecast to 40.8mmt 📦 and raised its crop estimate to 81mmt 🌾—still below recent highs, offering some global price support.
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0:00 Tariffs Ruled Illegal
2:55 Row Crop Selloff
4:19 US Weather
8:28 US/China Chip Tensions
9:42 India Won't Import Wheat
10:55 Screwworm and Cattle Impact
🇺🇸📉 Trump’s Tariffs BLOCKED by U.S. Court! Markets React! 📈🌾
A U.S. trade court just delivered a major blow to President Trump’s global tariff strategy. 🧑⚖️📜 On Wednesday, the Court of International Trade ruled that Trump illegally used emergency powers to impose tariffs — a setback for his economic agenda. The Trump team has already filed an appeal. Meanwhile, the markets are on the move! 📊
📈 Market Reaction & Futures Update
👉 S&P 500 futures surged 1.5% early this morning!
👉 Corn and soybean futures? Mixed bag! 🌽📉
➡️ Corn dropped 9¢ to $4.51
➡️ Soybeans fell 14¢ to $10.49
🌾 Wheat futures ticked higher as crop ratings disappointed.
☔ Weather Wildcards in the Corn Belt
Rainfall outlooks from the Euro 🌍 and GFS 🌎 models remain all over the map! The West may turn drier per GFS, while the East could see reduced rain per the Euro. Iowa, Nebraska, and SD are key watch areas! 🌧️❓
💻 New US-China Chip Tensions
The Commerce Dept. is now blocking high-tech chip design tools from reaching China 🇨🇳💥— a direct hit on AI ambitions. Could this unravel the current tariff truce?
🌾 India’s Wheat Surprise
India says “no thanks” to wheat imports this year with a record harvest of 115.4 MMT! 🌾✅ Strong prices, great weather, and improved seeds have made all the difference.
🐮 Feeder Cattle Imports May Resume
USDA plans to restart Mexican cattle imports 🐂 by year’s end—halted due to screwworm threats. A false scare in Missouri briefly rattled markets earlier this week! 🚨
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Tariffs #GrainMarkets #WeatherOutlook #ChipWar #Wheat #Cattle #TrumpTariffs #FarmNews #MarketUpdate 🌽📉📈
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0:00 Corn/Soybean Conditions and Progress
1:37 Ohio Problems
4:06 Wheat Progress and Conditions
5:27 Wheat Price Action
8:18 China Wheat Update
9:26 Corn Shipments are Strong
10:53 Trump CFTC Pick
🌽 Crop Ratings Drop! Corn & Wheat Disappoint 📉
Welcome back! This week's USDA report brought mixed news for US crops — with corn and spring wheat ratings falling below expectations. Here’s what’s happening in the markets, in the fields, and around the globe 🌎👇
🌾 Crop Conditions Update
📉 Corn rated 68% G/E—below last year & forecast
🌽 Top-rated states: IN, IA, KY, MO, NE, NC, PA
🌱 Corn planting: 87% done
🫘 Soybeans: 76% planted (ahead of average!)
🌾 Winter wheat: 50% G/E—highest for week since 2020
🌱 Spring wheat: 45% G/E—lowest since 2021
📊 Grain Market Moves
💥 Chicago wheat falls 14¢ to $5.29—rainfall relief hits prices
🌧️ Moisture in US Plains, EU & Black Sea = pressure
🌽 Corn flat, 🫘 soybeans inch higher
🌎 Global Weather Watch
🌧️ Heavy rains forecast for Southern China
🌾 Wheat belt moisture improving, but flooding risk looms
🚢 Export Snapshot
🇺🇸 Corn exports: 1.4 mmt—strong YoY, but down WoW
🫘 Soybeans: near low end of expectations
🌾 Wheat: exceeds forecast with big YoY gain
⚖️ Crypto & CFTC in the Spotlight
🚨 Trump’s CFTC nominee under fire for crypto ties
💼 Brian Quintez pledges to cut crypto links if confirmed
📜 Congress weighs expanding CFTC’s crypto authority
📺 Don’t miss the full breakdown!
👍 Like, subscribe & drop a comment below with your market take!
📡 Stay tuned for charts, maps & data visuals throughout the video!
Corn #Soybeans #Wheat #USDA #GrainMarkets #CryptoNews #FarmReport #AgNews #CommodityMarkets #WeatherWatch
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0:00 Trump Tariff Delay
3:05 US Weather
6:21 The Funds
9:36 Cattle on Feed
12:48 Deere and Drone Tech
📢 Trump Extends EU Tariff Deadline + Market Reactions, Weather, & Ag Tech News! 🌽📈
🚨 Tariff Talk Heats Up
President Trump has extended the EU tariff deadline to July 9 following a call with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The move delays a proposed 50% tariff on EU goods 😳 — part of Trump’s reciprocal tariff strategy. Markets are breathing a sigh of relief today after a volatile Friday 📉➡️📈. The S&P 500 is up 1.6%!
📱 Meanwhile, Trump also proposed a 25% tariff on foreign-made smartphones, including Apple and Samsung devices. 📲💸
🌦️ Weekend Weather Update
Rain favored the Plains & Mid-South, hitting NE, KS, OK, TX, AR, & the Gulf 🌧️. The Corn Belt stayed mostly dry, though scattered showers are seen in SD, MN, NE, & IA this morning. Divergence between the Euro & GFS models creates some forecast uncertainty this week. 🤔🌀
📊 Money Moves in the Corn Market
"The Funds" are getting bearish! 🐻 Last week, money managers increased their net short corn position to 95k contracts — the biggest since Oct ‘24. Also:
• Soybeans: net sellers of 24k
• SRW Wheat: net buyers of 20k
🐮 Cattle on Feed Report = Bullish?
• On Feed: 11.4M head (⬇️ 2%)
• April Placements: Lowest since 2020
• Beef in Cold Storage: Lowest for April since 2014
This tight supply setup could fuel further gains in cattle prices. 🚀🥩
🚁 John Deere Goes Airborne!
Big green is making moves! 💚 John Deere just acquired Sentera, a drone and ag tech firm helping farmers spot weeds and monitor crops from the sky. This supports Deere’s automation push in response to labor shortages and adds to their strong 2025 — the stock is up 22% YTD 📈🌾
👇 Drop your thoughts below and don’t forget to like & subscribe for more ag market insights! 👇
Tariffs #CornMarket #AgTech #JohnDeere #CattlePrices #GrainMarkets #WeatherWatch #TrumpTariffs #FarmNews 🌽📊🐄💼
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0:00 Corn Winning Streak
5:22 US Weather / Drought
10:01 SRE Rumors
11:26 Tax Bill and Bonds
14:59 Export Sales
19:30 India Wheat
🌽 Corn Climbs Again! + Biofuel Buzz & Drought Data 🔥
📈 The CBOT corn market kept up the momentum Thursday! July25 corn closed higher for the 4th straight session, settling at $4.63/bu, thanks to technical support. But... deferred months slipped on a strong US dollar and weaker oil. Rain is on the way for the Corn Belt 🌧️—a good sign for crop development! 🌎 The International Grains Council also raised its 25/26 global corn production forecast by 3 MMT to 1.3B tons.
🗺️ USDA Drought Monitor: Mixed Bag
The latest drought monitor shows:
🌽 Corn in drought: 20%
🌱 Soybeans: 17%
🌾 Winter Wheat: 23%
🌾 Spring Wheat: 38%
🐄 Cattle: 29%
Big gains in Nebraska & the Dakotas due to massive rainfall, but worsening in Indiana, Illinois, and Minnesota.
🛢️ Soybean Oil Swings on Biofuel Rumors!
A wild day for soybean oil! 🌀 Rumors of Trump’s EPA approving backlogged Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs) spooked the market — until the EPA denied it. Was someone trying to manipulate RIN prices? 🤔
🏛️ Trump's Domestic Package Passes House
The House passed Trump's multi-trillion dollar bill (215-214)—now it heads to the Senate 🚨. Key items for agriculture and energy:
🌱 45Z extended through 2031
🌎 Foreign feedstocks banned
🛬 Still no language on Sustainable Aviation Fuel
🌐 Export Sales Snapshot
🌽 Corn: 1.2mmt — Japan 🇯🇵 leads
🌱 Soybeans: 308kmt — Mexico 🇲🇽 leads
🌾 Wheat: -13kmt — Colombia 🇨🇴 leads
🇮🇳 India Eyes Record Wheat Crop
India could harvest a record 117mmt wheat crop! Favorable weather + strong seeds = BIG yields 🌾. Flour millers are pressuring for export bans to be lifted as stockpiles grow 📦.
CornMarket #GrainPrices #DroughtUpdate #BiofuelNews #USDA #TrumpBill #AgPolicy #SoybeanOil #ExportSales #IndiaWheat #FarmEconomy #5MinuteFriday 🌽📊💼
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0:00 Bond Selloff
1:46 Tax Bill Concerns
5:44 Corn and Bonds
9:14 Extended Commodity Trading Hours?
11:20 Ethanol Production
12:21 Argentina Update
13:56 Bitcoin ATH
🔹 📉 Bond Market Sell-Off Intensifies
Yields are surging as debt concerns mount. The 30-year hits 5.089%—a rare level not seen since 2023—and the 10-year busts through 4.5%. Weak auctions and global pressure (hello, Japan 🇯🇵) are shaking confidence in US debt. What’s it mean for YOU? 📊
🔹 🇺🇸 Trump’s Policy Package Stirs the House
A multitrillion-dollar bill with tax cuts, spending hikes, and big changes to energy, immigration, and Medicaid. But it’s facing resistance from both sides of the GOP aisle.
🔹 🌾 Corn Futures Catch a Bid
Corn prices move higher on short-covering, slow farmer sales, and a softer dollar. Wheat strength provides a boost.
🔹 🕒 24/7 Futures Trading? NGFA Says No!
The CFTC is considering round-the-clock trading for grains and livestock. The NGFA pushes back hard. Will extended hours help or hurt the market? ⏰
🔹 🚜 US Ethanol Output Rises
Production climbs 4.3% on the week—but margins are softening. Stocks tick lower.
🔹 🇦🇷 Argentina Crop Weather Update
Rainfall finally lets up after major delays in the soybean harvest. Dry weather returns, helping ease pressure on the crop forecast. 🌤️
🔹 🪙 Bitcoin Hits Record High
Yes, again. BTC tops $109K on hopes for stablecoin legislation and a Trump-fueled regulatory shift. Options traders are betting BIG.
💬 Got thoughts on 24/7 grain trading? Drop a comment and join the conversation!
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0:00 Direct Payment Update
4:30 Wheat Rally
6:13 Russia Wheat Weather
7:24 Corn Belt Rains
9:53 China Soybean Imports
11:35 China Buys More Gold
🌾 USDA Sends Billions to Farmers + Wheat Rally & China Trade Moves! 💵🌍
🚨 Big USDA Payments Rolling Out!
As of Monday, $7.6B in ECAP payments have been distributed to help farmers facing rising costs and lower crop prices. Corn growers have received $3.1B, soybeans $2B, and wheat $1B. Iowa leads the pack with nearly $700M! Over 500,000 farmers have already applied. 📝💰 Sign-up is open through August 15 — don’t miss it! 👇
🌾 Wheat Prices Surge
Chicago wheat futures jumped 📈 to their highest level since April, fueled by a weaker US dollar, falling US crop ratings, and weather concerns in China where temps could soar past 108°F! 🥵💨
🇷🇺 Russia Declares Grain Emergency
The Rostov region — Russia’s top grain producer — is under a state of emergency due to frost and expected drought. It's the third major region this season facing serious challenges. Crop damage may remain limited… but risk looms. ⚠️🌡️
🌧️ Corn Belt Soaked Again
Over 1.5" of rain fell across big chunks of the Midwest over the past 72 hours. More rain is expected in Missouri, Illinois, and across the Belt in the coming 2 weeks. 🌽☔️
🇨🇳 China Soybean Imports Plunge
China’s soybean imports from Brazil dropped 22% in April 📉 due to harvest and customs delays. US shipments also fell 44%. April imports were the lowest since 2015. Tariff tensions may be playing a role. 🛑🫘
🥇 Chinese Gold Demand Surges
Gold imports to China soared 73% last month despite record prices nearing $3,500/oz. The PBOC loosened restrictions to meet rising demand, driven by trade tension fears and investor hedging. 💹🔐
💬 Drop a comment with your market thoughts & don’t forget to LIKE & SUBSCRIBE for the latest ag and market updates!
FarmingNews #Wheat #Soybeans #Corn #Gold #US
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0:00 US Weather Update
2:25 US Crop Progress
6:51 Argentina Flooding
10:09 China is Chirping
11:21 Corn Shipments are Strong
13:07 Meal Flash Sale
🌽 Storms, Planting Progress & Global Trade Tensions! 🌧️📈🌎
Radar is lit up across the 🌽 Corn Belt this morning! A large storm system is bringing rain to MN, IA, WI, IL, and IN, with more moisture expected over the next 16 days 🌧️🌀. Recent rainfall has favored parts of the Dakotas, NE, IA, and the mid-South.
🌱 Planting Progress 🚜
Corn and soybean planting is flying ahead of the five-year average! Corn is 78% planted, while soybeans are 66% complete—the second-fastest pace in 10 years! 🏃♂️💨 Some states are nearly done, while others still lag behind.
🌾 Wheat Ratings & Spring Progress 🌼
Winter wheat ratings slipped to 52% good-excellent—lower than expected but still better than last year. Spring wheat planting is surging ahead at 82%, beating both last week's and average pace! 📈
🇦🇷 Argentina Crop Concerns 🌧️
Heavy rains are threatening soybean yields in Argentina, the world’s top exporter of soybean meal and oil. With harvest delays and 1.8 million acres still in the field, losses could mount fast. So far, markets haven’t blinked 👀.
🇨🇳 China-US Trade Clash 💥
Tensions rise again: China accuses the US of derailing trade talks over AI chip sanctions tied to Huawei. The warning could undercut recent progress made in Switzerland. 🤖🚫🇺🇸
🚢 Weekly Exports Update 📦
📦 Corn: 1.7mmt shipped, up big from last week
📦 Soybeans: Missed expectations
📦 Wheat: Strong performance, +85% YoY!
Plus, a flash sale of 145,000mt of soybean cake & meal to the Philippines makes headlines. 📢
🔔 Subscribe for daily insights & drop a comment with your planting progress or market thoughts! Let’s talk grain! 🌽📊🗣️
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0:00 US Downgrade
2:53 Corn Price Action
4:42 US Weather
7:48 Argentina Flooding
9:14 The Funds
11:04 India and Ethanol
📉 US Credit Downgrade Sparks Market Jitters 🇺🇸💥
Moody's has officially downgraded the US credit rating to Aa1, stripping the nation of its final triple-A from any major agency. The move was driven by rising deficits, ballooning interest costs, and a lack of fiscal discipline. While not expected to spark immediate chaos, the downgrade could slowly increase borrowing costs.
💬 Meanwhile, the "Sell America" trade is back:
📉 Stocks ⬇️
📉 Bonds ⬇️ (rates ⬆️)
💵 Dollar ⬇️
🌎 Only 11 countries now hold a triple-A rating from Moody’s.
🌽 Corn Market Moves
Corn futures slid 5¢ on Friday, with good weather and fast planting keeping prices under pressure. Over 60% of US corn is in the ground, ahead of average. But exports are strong—second best in 10 years!
🌦️ Radar Watch
Storms are lighting up the Corn Belt! 🌩️ Rainfall expected in:
• ND, SD, IA, MO
• Heaviest rain: southern IA, northern MO, southern IL & IN, western KY
🌧️ Moisture could boost crop development in dry spots.
🇦🇷 Argentina Flooding
Too much of a good thing? Parts of Buenos Aires saw 6–10 inches of rain! 🌊 Soy harvest delays continue, and sales have dropped to decade-lows.
• Soybean meal ⬇️
• Soybean oil ⬆️ (after recent plunge)
📊 Fund Positioning
• Corn: Biggest short since Oct '24
• SRW Wheat: Most short since Nov '23
• Soybeans: Funds were light buyers last week
🌍 US-India Ethanol Talks
The US wants India to open its market to fuel-grade ethanol. But India’s pushing domestic production and is cautious of foreign suppliers flooding the market. 🇮🇳⛽
👉 Subscribe for daily ag + macro updates! Drop your thoughts in the comments 💬
GrainMarkets #USCreditDowngrade #Corn #Soybeans #Moody's #Argentina #Ethanol #Commodities #AgNews 🌾💰📉
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0:00 Soybean Oil Crash
2:16 US Weather / Drought
6:39 Meat Demand and Ozempic
9:44 NOPA Crush Report
12:00 Export Sales
15:10 Kansas Wheat Tour
16:53 CONAB Estimates
19:25 SpaceX and Farming
🌱 Big Moves in Biofuels, Drought, and Meat Demand! 🚜🔥
🛢️ EPA Biofuel Blend Drama
The EPA just sent a new rule to the White House. 👀 Rumors suggest 2026 diesel blending targets may come in way below industry hopes — and soybean oil futures reacted hard, falling limit down. 📉
🌾 USDA Drought Monitor Update
Drought is creeping across key crop states. 😬
Corn: 22% 🌽 | Soybeans: 17% 🌱 | Winter Wheat: 23% 🌾
🍗 Ozempic Boosting Meat Demand?
Weight-loss meds like Ozempic 💉 are driving higher chicken and beef consumption, says JBS — folks on GLP-1s want more protein! 🐔🥩
🧼 NOPA Crush Report
April soybean crush dipped from March but still hit a record for the month 📊. Soybean oil stocks rose slightly but remain the lowest for April since 2015.
🌍 Strong US Corn Exports
Corn export sales beat expectations! 🌽💪
Soybeans and wheat? A bit more sluggish 🐢📉
🌾 Kansas Wheat Tour Surprise
Highest projected yield since 2021! Timely spring rains helped wheat scouts forecast 53 bpa vs the usual 44.3. USDA's still a bit more conservative — but things are looking up! ☁️➡️🌧️
🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Outlook Raised
Conab raised Brazil’s corn and soybean forecasts 🌽🇧🇷 Favorable rains, big second corn crop, and rising ethanol demand are all supporting the boom. 📈
🚀 Starlink x CNH = Farming Future
Precision ag just got a boost! CNH teams up with SpaceX to bring Starlink satellite internet to the most remote fields. 🌐🛰️
Like, comment, and subscribe to stay updated with real ag news that matters 👇
Soybeans #Corn #Wheat #Biofuels #Starlink #Ozempic #Farmers #AgNews #Commodities 🌽📈🛰️
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0:00 Soybean Rally
1:18 EPA and Bean Oil Selloff
3:36 Kansas Wheat Tour
6:28 Russia Wheat Update
8:14 Tyson CEO and Cattle
11:22 Ethanol Production
🌱 Soybeans Rally Again!
Soybean futures climbed for the fifth straight day on Wednesday! 📈 The July25 contract edged up near $10.78/bu, fueled by:
🔹 A 90-day tariff truce between 🇺🇸 and 🇨🇳
🔹 A House proposal to extend the 45Z tax credit
🔹 Hopes for renewed Phase One-style trade with China
But... 🌧️ storm clouds rolled in Thursday morning with lower prices amid EPA uncertainty and crashing crude. Full story below 👇
⚙️ EPA & Renewable Fuel Standard
EPA Chief Lee Zeldin 🏛️ says new RVOs are coming soon!
🔸 Final rule expected in months
🔸 Public comment period ahead
🔸 Push for higher volume levels already underway
Still, soybean oil futures are diving this morning 💥, possibly due to RVO delays and weak crude oil prices.
🌾 Wheat Tour Surprises
Kansas wheat tour is off to a strong start! 🌾
📍 Northern KS: 50.5 bpa (above 5-yr avg)
📍 SW Kansas: 53.3 bpa 😲
USDA now rates 48% of Kansas wheat as good to excellent vs. 31% on average. But issues like drought and wheat streak mosaic still linger.
❄️ Russian Crop Weather Update
Minimal damage from May frosts ❄️
📉 Only 247K acres affected (10% of last year’s loss)
But dry soils now pose the biggest risk. 🌵
🥩 Cattle Market Tension
Tyson says herd rebuilding has started. 🐄
…but challenges remain:
⚠️ Drought
⚠️ High prices
⚠️ Limited capital
Tyson reported a $149M beef loss last week. Live Cattle futures just posted a downside key reversal 📉
🚜 Ethanol Production Slips
🔻 Weekly output: 1 million bpd (down 2.6% WoW)
📈 Stocks: 25.45 million barrels (still high historically)
Margins are improving in the eastern Corn Belt 💵 — see full ethanol charts below!
📊 Don’t forget to like, comment, and subscribe to stay ahead of the grain game! 🌽📈
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0:00 US Weather
3:42 Biofuel and Tax Bill
5:41 Iowa Eminent Domain
8:54 US Loses Soy Market Share
10:54 China Soybean Import Forecast
12:13 Inflation Update
🌽☔ Widespread Rain in the Corn Belt + Biofuels Shakeup, China Trade Jitters & Inflation Update! 📉🛢️🌍
🌧️ Weather Watch:
A major rain event is unfolding across the US Corn Belt! Western ND/SD are already getting soaked, with more rain arriving in the eastern Corn Belt by Friday. The next 5-16 days could bring showers to even the driest spots! 💧🌽
🛢️ 45Z Tax Credit Overhaul:
Big news from Washington! Proposed changes to the 45Z credit could boost rural jobs and spark biofuel innovation 🚜⚡—but also shake up feedstock sourcing 🌎. Chinese used cooking oil may be out, and soybean oil markets are reacting! 📈
🛣️ Iowa Battles Carbon Pipelines:
The Iowa Senate passed a bill tightening rules on eminent domain for carbon pipelines 🚫🛢️. It could slow down Summit Carbon’s $8.9B project. The bill now heads to Governor Reynolds’ desk. 🖊️
🇨🇳 Brazil Soybean Advantage Continues:
Despite US-China tariff cuts, Brazil stays king 👑 in China’s soybean market thanks to no tariffs and a monster crop. US beans still face a 10% tariff, and farmers say the trade truce doesn’t fix long-term problems.
📉 China Soybean Imports Falling:
China expects soybean imports to drop 2.8% next season, with domestic production climbing 🐖🌱. Reduced soymeal use in livestock feed is driving the shift. 📉
📊 Inflation Hits 4-Year Low!
CPI rose just 2.3% YoY in April—the lowest since Feb 2021! 🙌 Markets rallied, and Treasury traders now expect two Fed rate cuts in 2025.
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0:00 Corn Struggles
4:43 Soybeans Rally
6:08 Wheat Sucks
9:08 Planting Progress
11:25 Wheat Ratings
12:46 Mexican Feeder Cattle Suspension
13:54 Stock Market Rally
15:50 Shipments
16:59 Flash Sale
📊 USDA Report Recap + Tariff Talk + Market Reactions 🌽📈
🚨 Monday's USDA report brought friendly corn news, a soybean rally, and wheat pressure — but markets didn’t act like it. Here's what happened:
🌽 Corn Check-In
USDA cut ending stocks for the current year thanks to higher exports ✅
New crop balance sheet came in tighter than expected 📉
But corn still traded lower this morning 🤷
🫘 Soybean Surge
July ‘25 beans jumped nearly 20¢ 🚀
Support from US-China tariff reduction & tighter supply estimates 📉
Ending stocks now the 2nd lowest since ‘12/’13 🔥
🌾 Wheat Woes
Chicago wheat hit a new contract low ❌
USDA boosted both US & global ending stocks 📈
Rain across the Plains = improving crop conditions 🌧️
🌱 Planting Progress
Corn: 62% planted nationally 🌽
Beans: 48% planted 🫘
Several states moving fast, others still behind ⏱️
🪲 Feeder Cattle Suspension
USDA halts Mexican feeder cattle imports due to New World screwworm 🚫🐛
Cattle futures 🚀 on the news
Mexico calls move “unfair” 🇲🇽
📉 Export Update
Corn exports dipped but still solid 📦
Soybean and wheat shipments mixed 📬
USDA also announced a flash soybean sale to Mexico 🇲🇽
💼 Market Rally!
S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all jumped 📈
US-China slash tariffs for 90 days 🛃
Traders now see fewer Fed rate cuts this year 💰
💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments & don’t forget to subscribe for more ag market updates! 📲
USDA #Corn #Soybeans #Wheat #Tariffs #GrainMarkets #FarmNews #Cattle #AgTrade #MarketUpdate #CropProgress #Commodities #Farming #AgNews
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0:00 US/China Tariffs Reduced
3:55 Trade War Impact?
6:16 USDA Preview
9:32 US Weather Update
11:36 The Funds
12:35 China Soybean Imports Slow
13:53 Flash Sales
📢 Tariff Truce & Trade Shifts: Big News for Ag & Markets! 🌎🌽📈
🧾 📉 Tariffs Slashed!
The US and China have agreed to lower tariffs for 90 days. 🇺🇸➡️🇨🇳
🔹 US drops from 145% ➡️ 30%
🔹 China drops from 125% ➡️ 10%
Talks included fentanyl policy and potential purchase agreements from China. 🤝
🌱 🧪 Trade War Fallout in Ag
Tariffs have disrupted grain flows, fertilizer imports, and ag input costs.
Farmers face delays, higher prices, and uncertainty. 🚜💸
Brazil benefits as China shifts some demand south. 🇧🇷🌾
📊 🔥 Soybeans Near 3-Month Highs
Markets are moving!
🔹 Soybeans ⬆️
🔹 S&P 500 ⬆️ 2%
🔹 US Dollar 🚀
📅 🌽 New USDA WASDE Report Today!
At 11am CST, get your first look at 25/26 corn & soybean balance sheets.
Expect bearish corn news with trend yields + March acreage. 🧮
🌦️ Corn Belt Weather Update
Dry weekend, but moisture is on the way…
🌧️ Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky today
🌧️ ND, SD, MN & east Corn Belt later this week
Watch for dry pockets in Nebraska & western Iowa. ☀️
💰 Fund Flows & Flash Sales
"The Funds" sold 57k corn contracts last week.
🟢 288k MT corn sold to Mexico
🟢 120k MT soybeans sold to Pakistan
Get the full breakdown + CFTC & Fund Tracker charts. 📉📊
🛢️ China Soy Imports Drop 29%!
Only 6.1mmt in April —the lowest in 10 years.
Customs delays & longer Brazil transit times are to blame. ⏱️🚢
Rebound expected in May/June. 📈
👇 Don’t miss this critical update on trade, tariffs, weather & global grain flows. Like, subscribe, and drop your thoughts in the comments!
📌 Stay informed. Stay ready. 💬🌎
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0:00 Da Pope
1:03 Charts
4:58 USDA Preview
9:55 US/UK Deal
12:21 Trump China Thoughts
16:21 Drought/Weather Update
20:28 Export Sales
21:38 Flash Sales
📊 USDA Report Monday + Big Trade News! 🌍🌽
📅 Mark your calendar! USDA drops its monthly Crop Production & WASDE report Monday at 11am CST. We'll get our first look at 25/26 corn & soybean balance sheets, with trend yields and March acreage in focus. 📉 Early expectations suggest bearish new crop corn vs. the current year. Pre-report estimates 👇
🇺🇸🇬🇧 US–UK Strike Ag Deal!
The UK will eliminate its 19% ethanol tariff, giving a major boost to the US ethanol industry 🚀 ($535M in exports last year). The deal also expands beef trade, but UK food safety rules will still apply. For context: the UK = 🇬🇧 68 million people, with 36 lbs of beef consumption per person vs. 59 lbs in the US. 🍖📉
📈 Trump Eyes China Tariff Cuts
President Trump expressed hope for progress in this weekend’s trade talks with China 🇨🇳. A tariff reduction (currently at 145%) could be on the table. Markets responded: S&P +0.6%, Nasdaq +1.1% 💹
🌾 Drought Monitor Highlights
Most of the Corn Belt is drought-free, but dryness is growing in parts of MO, IL, IN & the High Plains. Here’s the USDA breakdown:
Corn: 20%
Soybeans: 15%
Winter Wheat: 22%
Spring Wheat: 37%
Cattle Areas: 30%
🚢 Export Sales Recap
Corn: 1.7mmt – 🌽 65M bu (+64% WoW) – Japan leads
Soybeans: 377k mt – 🫘 14M bu – Mexico leads
Wheat: 70k mt – 🌾 3M bu – Mexico leads
🌎 China Turns to Argentina
China signed a $900M non-binding grain deal with 🇦🇷 Argentina, aiming to sidestep Trump’s tariffs. Expect rising Argentine corn & soybean shipments to China.
📢 Flash Sales!
Mexico: 205k mt corn (2024/25 & 2025/26)
Unknown Dest.: 115k mt corn (2024/25)
Pakistan: 225k mt soybeans (largest since June 2022) 🛳️
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0:00 Corn Selloff
4:32 Trump Comments, US/UK Deal
5:45 Podcast News
9:06 Bunge and Andersons
10:39 Corteva
11:51 Ethaonl Production/Stocks
12:44 Fed Rates
📉 Corn Futures Slide Amid Trade Tensions & Weather Outlook 🌾
Corn prices dipped Wednesday as optimism over US–China trade talks gave way to fresh uncertainty. July25 corn futures settled near $4.49 per bushel, down 6 cents on the day. President Trump's refusal to lower tariffs ahead of upcoming negotiations with Beijing, combined with favorable US planting weather, pressured the market. Planting is already ahead of schedule—corn 40% and soybeans 30% complete.
🇨🇳 Tariff Talk Turns Tense
Trump made it clear: no tariff rollbacks before talks. With US and Chinese officials set to meet in Switzerland, the president doubled down on his hardline stance. Beijing isn't happy. Meanwhile, a US–UK trade deal could be announced today.
🎙️ Podcast Profits Soar
The podcasting industry is booming—$7.3 billion in 2024, more than double previous estimates! YouTube now dominates the space, with ad and subscription revenue leading the way.
📉 Grain Traders Feel the Heat
Bunge saw Q1 profits drop 40%, while Andersons posted disappointing revenue and a 10% stock dive. Ongoing tariff drama and unclear biofuel credits are taking a toll.
🌱 Corteva Sees Strong Seed Sales
Corteva beat earnings estimates with an $842M Q1 profit thanks to higher seed prices—especially in North America. However, global sales dipped 2% amid currency headwinds.
📊 Corteva financial chart below.
🛢️ Ethanol Production Slips Slightly
Weekly ethanol output came in at 1.02M barrels/day—down slightly from last week, but still strong year-over-year. Margins are improving, especially in the eastern Corn Belt.
🏦 Fed Holds Steady, Cites Uncertainty
The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged at 4.3%, resisting Trump’s calls for cuts. Powell cited rising inflation risks and economic fallout from trade tensions.
💸 Stagflation fears and rate outlook in the chart section.
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CornMarket #Tariffs #USChinaTrade #Ethanol #Corteva #PodcastBoom #FedUpdate #GrainPrices #FarmEconomy #Commodities
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0:00 US/China
3:16 New Trade Agreements?
4:33 China Wheat Problems
6:49 Transition Planning
8:35 Farmer Sentiment
10:29 Ethanol Exports are Strong
11:49 SAF News
13:17 Problems at ADM
🇺🇸🇨🇳 US–China Trade Talks Begin This Weekend! 🌍
Big moves on the global stage! US officials are heading to Switzerland for high-stakes trade talks with China. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the goal is de-escalation, not a final deal—but with tariffs as high as 145%, the stakes are massive. 💥📉
🌾 Meanwhile... Hot Weather Threatens China's Wheat Crop
A heatwave is scorching Henan, China's top wheat-producing province, with drought fears rising. Could this spark more wheat imports? 👀🌾 See charts below.
🤝 Trump Eyes New Trade Deals
While China's negotiations stall, India 🇮🇳 and Japan 🇯🇵 may be first in line for new trade agreements. Stay tuned. 📋🖊️
🚜 Farmer Sentiment Rebounds
Despite tariff headaches, farmers are feeling a bit better about the road ahead, says Purdue’s Ag Economy Barometer. But many still worry about input costs and long-term impact. 🌱📊
⛽ Biofuel Boom: Ethanol & SAF on the Rise!
Ethanol exports surged 41% in March. 🚢
SAF production has 15x’d since January! ✈️🌿
All thanks to federal & state incentives pushing the clean fuel agenda. 🔋🌎
📉 ADM Feels the Pressure
Uncertainty in biofuel policy and weak crushing margins are weighing on profits. ADM expects earnings at the low end of forecasts—see why in the charts. 📉📦
💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments & don’t forget to LIKE & SUBSCRIBE for more ag market updates! 🌽📈
USChinaTrade #Tariffs #Ethanol #SAF #AgNews #FarmEconomy #WheatCrop #Biofuels #ADM #Farmers #TrumpTradePolicy
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0:00 Corn Selloff
3:00 Corn and Soybean Planting Pace
7:04 Wheat Progress / Conditions
8:13 Russian Wheat Pricing
9:09 Tyson Slump
11:24 Grain Shipments
📉 Grain Markets Under Pressure! 🌽🌾💥
Corn futures took a dive Monday as fast US planting progress and favorable weather set a bearish tone. Jul25 corn dropped nearly 15¢ to $4.54. Traders are eyeing next week’s USDA numbers and watching Brazil’s second crop flourish. 🇺🇸🌤️🇧🇷
🚜 US Planting Progress 🌱
Corn planting is 40% complete—slightly behind trade guesses but still ahead of average. Soybeans are at 30%, also ahead of normal pace. Drier weather this week should accelerate progress across the Corn Belt. 🌽🌿
🌾 Wheat Ratings & Progress 📈
Winter wheat condition improved to 51% good-excellent, beating expectations. Spring wheat planting also moved forward at 44% complete. Russia's new crop wheat offers are pressuring global markets as frost fears fade. 🇷🇺💧
🥩 Tyson Foods Tumbles 📉🐄
Tyson shares sank despite a strong Q2 report, as beef sector losses mount. The US cowherd is at its smallest since 1961, driving cattle costs sky-high. Ranchers may finally be turning the corner on herd rebuilding. 💸📉
🚢 Export Update 🚢
US corn inspections dipped to 1.6mmt but remain solid YoY. Soybean and wheat inspections missed expectations, with both down sharply from last week. 📊🌍
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0:00 US Planting Window
2:49 "Perfect" Brazil Weather
4:51 Tariff Exemptions
8:26 USDA Budget Cuts
9:44 The Funds
10:45 Black Sea Drone Attack
📉🌾 Grain Market Update | Rainfall, Brazil Crop Bump, China Tariff Moves & More! 🇨🇳🇧🇷
🌦️ Weekend Weather Recap
Rain was spotty across the eastern Corn Belt and Mid-South! Some parts of KY & OH got up to 2.7", but most areas saw less. The western Corn Belt stayed mostly dry. Planting weather looks favorable this week with minimal rain expected! 🌽
🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Surprise
StoneX bumped up its Brazil soybean estimate to 168.4 MMT and raised second corn crop projections to 104.3 MMT thanks to solid yields in Mato Grosso. One analyst even called the crop “nearly perfect”! 🚜☀️
🇺🇸🇨🇳 US-China Trade Watch
China just exempted $40B in US goods from tariffs—pharma, chemicals & more. The US has also lifted tariffs on $102B of Chinese goods. Rumors are swirling that talks may resume soon. Trump hinted that a deal could come this week. 📈🗣️
💰 Trump Budget Targets Ag
Trump’s proposed budget slashes over $4.5B from USDA funding. Cuts hit CRP, rural development, and renewable energy projects—but there's $100M added for food safety and rural housing aid. 🏡❌🌱
📊 Fund Moves
CFTC says "The Funds" sold off 46k corn contracts last week. Net short positions in SRW wheat are now the largest since Nov 2023! Soybeans saw a slight net buying trend. 📉💼
🔥 Black Sea Tensions
Ukrainian drones hit Russia’s biggest grain terminal at Novorossiysk. Damage was done, but operations resumed quickly. VP Vance says peace talks have been initiated, but Russia’s not ready for a truce yet. ⚠️🛩️🌾
👇 Don't forget to like, subscribe, and drop your thoughts in the comments! Stay informed — it matters more than ever! 💬📲
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0:00 China Assessing Talks
2:30 Hassett Comments
3:00 Soybean Stuff
4:59 Farm Machinery Slump
7:52 Drought Monitor
10:58 Export Sales
13:01 California Gas Ban?
🇺🇸🇨🇳 US–China Trade Talks? Signals from Beijing & Washington
Big moves may be brewing in global trade! China says the US wants to talk tariffs, but Beijing is calling for "sincerity." Will this lead to a breakthrough? Let’s break it all down 👇
🧨 Tariff Tensions & Trade Optimism
China's Commerce Ministry revealed the US has reached out about potential talks. Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is hopeful, especially after China removed tariffs on some US goods like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. 💊💻
🚜 Farm Machinery Sales Slump
Tariff uncertainty is crushing machinery demand. CNH Industrial and AGCO posted big Q1 sales drops—23% and 30%. 📉 But oddly… both stocks rallied! AGCO reaffirmed 2025 sales goals while CNH forecasted a steep decline.
🌾 Drought Conditions Improving
USDA’s latest drought data brings some relief 🌧️:
✔️ Drought in the Corn Belt down to 6%
✔️ Kansas sees the biggest improvement—drought fell from 64% to 37%!
✔️ Drought still lingers in wheat and cattle areas (Spring Wheat: 37%, Cattle: 31%)
🌽 Grain Export Sales Snapshot
📉 Corn: 1 MMT – down 12% WoW
📈 Soybeans: 428,200 MT – up 55% WoW
📉 Wheat: 72,000 MT – sharply lower
Top buyers: 🇲🇽 Mexico (corn), 🇨🇳 China (soybeans), 🇹🇭 Thailand (wheat)
🚗 California Gas Car Ban in Trouble?
The House just voted to repeal California’s EV waiver ❗ The Senate vote is next. This could derail the 2035 gas car ban and affect other states like NY and WA. California is the #2 US consumer of both gasoline and ethanol. ⛽🌽
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0:00 EU Deforestation Law Impact
2:56 Corn Belt Rains
4:48 GDP Contraction
8:46 China PMI
9:46 Ethanol Production
10:50 Flash Sale
🪵 EU’s New Deforestation Law 🌍
The 🇪🇺 EU is set to label the 🇺🇸 US as low-risk under its deforestation law, easing concerns for American exporters of beef, grain, and timber. Meanwhile, 🇧🇷 Brazil is expected to be tagged standard-risk, which could hurt its soy and beef exports. A final vote is coming mid-May!
🌧️ Radar Watch: Corn Belt Rains 🌽
Storms are active across parts of IA, IL, MN, MI & IN this morning, with 2–3" possible in IL. More rain is on the way for the Eastern Corn Belt and Mid-South. US planting remains ahead of schedule — see maps below! 🚜
📉 US GDP Shrinks in Q1 🇺🇸
The US economy contracted 0.3% last quarter — the first dip since 2022. A surge in imports (ahead of Trump’s tariffs), weak consumer spending, and a drop in government outlays all played a role. Net exports shaved off nearly 5% from GDP, the worst since 1947! 😳
🏭 China’s PMI Falls Below 50 🐉
China’s manufacturing slipped back into contraction territory with a 49.0 PMI reading. Ongoing US-China tensions continue to weigh on trade and exports. Beijing may soon unveil new stimulus efforts. 📉
🛢️ Ethanol Update: Margins Near Breakeven 🍶
US ethanol output rose to 1.04M bpd last week. Stocks dipped slightly but remain elevated. Margins are tight, with the Eastern Corn Belt reporting the best profitability. ⚗️
🚢 Corn Flash Sale + Export Strength 🌎
US exporters booked 120,000 MT of corn to unknown destinations for 24/25. Accumulated sales are up 26% YoY! With Brazil on hold until July, US corn is HOT on the world stage. 🔥
Stay informed and make better marketing decisions with the data that matters. 💼📈
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💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments — what do YOU think about the new EU rules?
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0:00 Tuesday Selloff
3:34 China to Reduce Grain/Meal Use
6:04 Transition Planning
7:38 China Comments
8:48 Russia Wheat Update
10:04 Amazon Tariff Charges?
11:33 Flash Sales
🌽📉 Corn & Soybeans Slide Sharply!
Corn and soybean futures took a hit Tuesday as planting progress races ahead! The Jul25 corn contract fell 13¢ to around $4.70, while soybeans dropped nearly 10¢ to $10.53. South American weather is looking great, and there’s no big bearish headline—just a wave of selling pressure as weather premiums fade.
🌾🌦 Wheat Drifts Lower Too
SRW wheat followed suit, down 6¢ to $5.26. Timely US Plains rain and a slight bump in Russian exports kept prices under pressure.
🐖🥣 China’s New Feed Plan
China plans to cut grain use in livestock feed to 60% and soymeal to just 10% by 2030. The shift toward alternative proteins like insects and food waste is a major step in Beijing’s strategy to reduce reliance on US soybeans. 📉
🛑🇨🇳 China Pushes Back on Tariffs
At a BRICS meeting, China warned against giving in to US tariff pressure. Officials demand a rollback of all tariffs before trade talks can start. Meanwhile, the US hints at tougher measures.
🚢🇷🇺 Russian Wheat Export Forecast Raised
Sovecon bumped up its Russian wheat export forecast to 40.7mmt despite ongoing profitability issues. Margins remain tight, and a breakout in shipments still looks unlikely.
🛒🇺🇸 Amazon Won’t Show Tariff Costs
After blowback from the White House and President Trump, Amazon has scrapped plans to display tariff charges on its discount platform, Amazon Haul. The drama continues…
📦🌍 Flash Sales to Spain & Unknown Buyers!
USDA reported new flash sales:
🔹 120,000mt of corn to Spain
🔹 110,000mt of soybeans to unknown destinations
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GrainMarkets #Corn #Soybeans #Wheat #ChinaTrade #USDA #Tariffs #AgricultureNews
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0:00 Wheat Futures Fall
3:50 Summer E15
7:36 Corn and Soybean Planting
9:15 US Wheat Update
10:03 China Comments
11:32 Grain Shipments are Strong
12:19 Screwworm Update
🌾 Wheat Futures Tumble Amid Plains Rainfall! 🌧️
Big moves in the grain markets to kick off the week! Here's what's happening: 👇
🌾 Wheat Update
SRW wheat fell 14¢ to $5.31/bu. 📉
HRW wheat dropped 11¢ to $5.40/bu. 📉
Heavy rainfall in Texas & Oklahoma (6–8 inches possible!) forecasted 🌦️
🌽 Corn & Soybeans Steady
Futures mostly flat as traders watch for export disruptions from Trump's China trade war ⚖️
⛽ Nationwide E15 Sales Approved
Emergency EPA waiver greenlights E15 sales this summer. 🚗💨
Analysts expect little impact on corn demand. 📊
🌱 Planting Progress
Corn planting: 24% complete vs. 22% avg. 🌽
Soybean planting: 18% complete vs. 12% avg. 🌱
🌾 Winter Wheat Ratings Improve
49% good-excellent, beating analyst expectations ✅
Spring wheat planting also ahead of average. 📈
🌍 China Shifts Away from US Grain
Record soybean imports from South America expected 📦
Some disruptions after Brazil harvest delays ⏳
🚢 Export Inspections
Corn inspections strong at 1.6mmt 🚢
Wheat and soybean shipments mixed. 📦
🐄 US-Mexico Screwworm Agreement
Border closure on feeder cattle imports avoided ✅
Threat averted that could've tightened cattle supplies further. 🚜
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0:00 Mixed Messaging
3:13 Japan and South Korea Talks
4:06 US Weather and Rains
8:06 Fund Positions
9:21 Panama Canal
10:44 Another Screwworm/Cattle Headline
11:54 Flash Sale
🇺🇸🌎 Trade Talks...or No Talks? 🇨🇳❓
Big moves (and some big confusion) on the global trade front! President Trump says China wants a deal, but Beijing denies any talks 🤔. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent isn't sure if Trump spoke to Xi Jinping directly, though USDA's Brooke Rollins says daily tariff conversations are happening 📞. Meanwhile, soybean futures are feeling the pressure early this morning 🌱📉.
🗺️ Weekend Trade Updates:
✅ Productive talks with Japan and South Korea
✅ New focus on currency policy with South Korea
✅ More rain on the way for the US Corn Belt ☔—see maps below!
📊 Fund Tracker Highlights:
Funds net buyers of soybeans for a 4th week! 🚀
Largest net-long soybean position since February!
Funds sold corn but bought some SRW wheat 🌽🌾.
🚢 Trump's Shipping Push:
Demanding free US passage through the Panama and Suez Canals! 🌍
Reviving US shipbuilding as China tensions rise 🔥.
🐂 Border Watch:
USDA threatens new cattle import restrictions from Mexico. 🐄🚫
Screwworm outbreak grows—action deadline looms April 30!
🌽 Flash Corn Sale:
235,000mt sold to Mexico! 🇲🇽
US remains the top corn supplier with Brazil out of the game (for now). ⚡
👇 Stay tuned, like & subscribe for the latest on trade, markets, and agriculture!
Let's talk about it in the comments! 💬👇
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🇨🇳 China’s Trade Shift?
Beijing may exempt some US goods from tariffs! A task force led by China’s Ministry of Commerce is compiling a list—rumored to include 131 product categories—but no official word yet. This could signal growing concern about trade war impacts. Bloomberg & Reuters both confirm the buzz 📊
🌱 Soybean Prices Surge
Soybean futures climbed for the 4th day in a row, hitting $10.62/bu on July25! Traders are hopeful about rising global demand and easing US-China tensions. Japan is reportedly eyeing more US soybeans, and soybean oil gains added support 🚀
🐖 China Cancels Pork Orders
China just made its largest US pork cancellation since 2020—pulling 20,000mt! Tariffs on pork are now a staggering 172%, and beef faces a 147% rate. 🇺🇸🇨🇳 Meat exports are definitely in the crosshairs of the trade fight 🥩
🌽 Brazil’s Corn Crunch
Brazil’s ethanol output from corn is exploding—set to hit 8.25 billion liters this year and more next! That’s tightening domestic corn supplies and may reduce Brazil’s exports… a potential win for US corn competitiveness 💪
📉 Grain Exports Slump
US corn sales dropped 26% on the week, soybeans fell 50%, and wheat saw net reductions 😬. Buyers were Japan (corn), Mexico (soybeans), and Vietnam (wheat). The export scene’s getting tougher.
🔥 Drought Update
Some relief! 🌧️ Drought eased in Missouri, Iowa, and parts of Illinois and Minnesota. But corn, soybeans, and wheat still face stress across big portions of the US 🌾
Corn: 26% in drought
Soybeans: 21%
Winter Wheat: 33%
Spring Wheat: 49%
Cattle areas: 37%
📊 Stock Market Rebounds
Markets popped Thursday as Trump’s softer trade tone gave investors hope. But China says talks haven’t started, so stay tuned… 📉 The S&P 500 is still down 3.3% since April 2.
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Stay informed. Stay ahead. 💡
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🌱 Soybeans Pop, Corn Slips, Wheat Hits New Lows 🚜
📈 Markets on the Move!
Soybean futures climbed 📊—with July ‘25 beans hitting their highest level in 2️⃣ months! The boost came after President Trump reassured markets he won’t fire Fed Chair Powell and suggested tariff relief for China 🇨🇳. Technical buying added fuel to the rally 🔥
🌽 Corn & Wheat Down
Corn dipped as dry weather forecasts may speed up planting in the Corn Belt 🌾. Wheat futures fell, pressured by weak global demand and rain across the U.S. Plains 🌧️. Jul’25 HRW wheat made contract lows overnight ⚠️
🇨🇳 China Crop Trouble
Drought in China’s wheat & corn belts and soggy conditions up north are hitting yields and delaying soybean planting 🚨. At the same time, tensions remain high in the trade war, with China demanding the U.S. scrap all tariffs 🚫📦
⛽ Ethanol Update
U.S. ethanol stocks sank to their lowest since January 🛢️. Weekly output rose, but margins remain tight 🤏. Could tightening supplies lift prices?
🇦🇷 Argentina Harvest Lags
Dry weather will speed up soybean harvest in Argentina 🌞—but March floods already cut into yields. Only 23% of the crop has been sold, the lowest in a decade 📉
🛢️ Crude Oil Drops
WTI fell 2.2% as OPEC+ weighs another output boost 💧. Eight members meet May 5 to decide on June volumes 🗓️
👇 See the latest maps & charts below!
💬 Don’t forget to like, subscribe, and drop your thoughts in the comments! Let’s talk grain! 🌾📉📈
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0:00 21k Subs! Thanks!
0:51 Trump to Ease on China?
3:02 Markets React
5:16 Ethanol Push
6:50 Summit Pipeline Setback
8:05 Another Spring Wheat Contract?
9:33 IMF Forecast
11:16 Trade and Logistics Impact
🇺🇸💼 Trump Signals Softer Tariffs in China Talks
President Trump says tariffs on Chinese goods may be reduced but not eliminated. “We’re going to be very nice,” he added. As markets feel the pressure 📉 and rates stay high, trade talks could gain urgency.
📊 Treasury Talks & Market Reaction
Treasury’s Scott Bessent says current tariffs aren’t sustainable — and that a new trade balance could emerge in 2-3 years. 📈 Stocks rallied on the optimism, with major indexes jumping nearly 3%.
⛽ Midwest Pushes for E15 Fuel Waivers
Seven Midwest governors 🧑🌾 are urging the EPA to approve E10/E15 waivers for the summer driving season. They say it’ll boost fuel supply and bring prices down — especially important amid current shortages.
🛑 South Dakota Nixes Carbon Pipeline
Summit Carbon’s pipeline plan got shut down ❌ as SD regulators voted 2–1 against it. The state’s eminent domain ban made land access nearly impossible. Summit plans a new route after investing $150M.
🌾 Spring Wheat Showdown: CME vs MIAX
CME launched its own spring wheat contract to compete with MIAX 🌾. Traders worry the market may not support two. CME is slashing fees to win volume, but MIAX holds strong with historic data and momentum.
🌍 IMF Lowers Global Outlook
The IMF just cut growth forecasts ✂️ for most major economies. For the U.S., 2025 growth is now seen at 1.8%—with inflation expected to hit 3%. The U.S.-China tariff battle is a key reason behind the slowdown 📉.
🚢 SoCal Trade at Risk
The West Coast’s logistics hub may be in trouble 😬. Tariffs are slashing cargo volumes at LA and Long Beach ports. Imports & exports could drop 10% starting next month, though diverted traffic might cushion the blow.
👇 Stay tuned for the latest on trade, tariffs, and fuel markets
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0:00 Subscribe!
0:45 Dollar, Trump, Powell, Commodities
4:06 US / India Talks
8:15 US Planting Update
11:27 SA Countries Benefit from Trade War
13:19 Corn Shipments are Strong
📉 Dollar Drops to 3-Year Low | US-India Trade Talks | Crop Progress & Export Strength 💪
Welcome back to Grain Markets & Other Stuff! In today’s update, we cover big moves in currency, trade, and crops. 🌎🚜📊
💵 US Dollar Slides
The greenback hit its lowest level since March 2022 😬 as Trump pressures the Fed to slash interest rates. Tensions rise as the White House reportedly explores removing Jerome Powell. 😮📉
🇺🇸🤝🇮🇳 US-India Trade Talks Advance
Vice President JD Vance visits India and pushes for a fall trade deal 📆. India might slash tariffs on U.S. imports and open the door to ethanol discussions for the first time ever. 🔥
🌱 Corn & Soybean Planting Update
Corn is 12% planted, soybeans 8% 🌽🫘, with some states flying ahead of schedule while others lag behind. Full breakdowns inside! 📈
🌾 Winter & Spring Wheat Snapshot
Winter wheat ratings slip a bit but still beat the average. Spring wheat planting is moving quickly in the north! 🌾⚙️
🌍 Brazil & Argentina Step Up
South American ag exporters are cashing in on the US-China trade war. Chinese buyers pivot to Brazil for beef and beans. 🇧🇷🐄🥜
🚢 Export Inspections Beat Estimates
Corn, soybeans, and wheat all showed strong demand last week — with corn topping 1.7mmt! 📦📦📦
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🚢 Trump Scales Back Ship Tariffs
The Trump administration has softened its stance on China-built ship fees. Instead of $1.5M per port call, vessels will now face fewer charges — and empty grain/coal ships are exempt! 🌾⛴️
🌧️ Rain in the Plains & Corn Belt
Big weekend rains hit parts of Oklahoma, Missouri & beyond. More on the way for the Southern Plains. NOAA’s 3-month outlook just dropped — maps inside! 🗺️
🌽 Drought Monitor Update
Dry week for much of the Corn Belt. Drought eased in some parts of MN/WI but worsened in NE & KS.
🔹 Corn: 30%
🔹 Soybeans: 23%
🔹 Winter Wheat: 34%
🔹 Spring Wheat: 43%
🔹 Cattle: 38%
📈 Funds Go Long Soybeans
CFTC shows big fund buying — soybeans saw the largest net-long since Feb.! Corn and wheat also saw fresh buying. 📊
🇯🇵 Japan Trade Talks
Japan may boost soybean & rice imports. Corn trade steady. Trump presses on tariffs & ag exports — no deal yet, but “big progress.” 🤝
🛢️ Ethanol Exports Boom
U.S. ethanol exports already over 1 billion gallons this year. 🚀
🇨🇦 Canada = top buyer
🇪🇺 EU = huge YOY increase
🚚 Corn & Soybean Export Sales Surge
Corn sales are up 99% on the week. 📦 Mexico leads. Soybeans are also strong. Wheat? Not so much.
🐄 Cattle on Feed Report
Slightly bearish tone — placements up, but still below the 5-year average. Neutral-to-bearish read overall. 📉📈
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0:00 Happy Easter
0:35 US/Japan Talks
2:04 Corn Bounce
3:31 Joe is a Cry Baby
6:11 US Dollar Declines
9:29 Ethanol Production
10:25 Montana Renewables
11:42 Gold Surges
🌐 Trade Discussions with Japan: The Trump administration made significant progress in trade talks with Japan. President Trump described the discussions as making "big progress," with topics extending beyond trade to defense cost-sharing. The 90-day tariff pause continues, but Japan faces a 24% tariff if a deal isn't reached.
🌽 Corn Futures Climb: Corn futures saw an increase amid a weaker dollar and weather concerns. The May25 contract gained 3 cents to settle near $4.84 per bushel, supported by recent rain and flooding delays in the Corn Belt. Further rain this weekend is expected to hinder planting progress.
💵 US Dollar Falls to Six-Month Low: The U.S. dollar hit a six-month low, with investors seeking safer assets due to uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade negotiations. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the slowing economy, signaling a wait-and-see approach for the Fed.
🌱 Ethanol Stocks Remain High: U.S. ethanol stocks were near historical highs, with a slight weekly decline. However, production margins remain near breakeven levels, with output down by 1% from last week but up 3% from the same time last year.
🔋 Montana Renewables Pushes for Higher Biomass Diesel Quotas: Montana Renewables' CEO, Bruce Fleming, is advocating for a substantial increase in biomass-based diesel quotas to support the industry, targeting 7.3 billion gallons, more than double the current quota.
💰 Gold Hits New High: Gold surged by 3.2% on Wednesday, reaching over $3,300 per ounce, driven by the weak dollar and investor fears of economic uncertainty. Experts predict gold could reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 due to trade tensions and a looming global recession.
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0:00 Farm Payments and Trump
3:40 Trump Urges China to Negotiate
5:59 Soy Crush Report
9:22 COFCO Expands in Brazil
10:53 Sorghum Trade War Impact
12:46 Corn Flash
🌾 Financial Aid for Farmers: The White House is still evaluating the possibility of providing financial aid to farmers who are dealing with challenges like low prices and high inventories, exacerbated by the ongoing trade war. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins highlighted that the goal is to eventually eliminate the need for these payments, but they are currently under consideration, similar to the $28 billion aid provided during Trump's first term.
🌍 China's Response to Tariffs: China has imposed a 125% tariff on U.S. goods, and President Trump has retaliated with a 145% tariff on Chinese imports. Trump insists that China should initiate trade negotiations. The ongoing tariff disputes continue to drive significant shifts in global trade.
🌱 US Soybean Crush Data: The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported that the U.S. soybean crush in March increased by 9.4% compared to February, but was down 0.9% year-over-year. However, soybean oil stocks declined, marking the first drop in six months.
🚢 Cofco Expansion in Brazil: Chinese company Cofco is expanding significantly in Brazil, particularly in operations related to soybeans. The company is building its largest global export terminal at Santos port, highlighting Brazil's growing importance in global agricultural trade.
🌾 Declining US Sorghum Exports: Sorghum exports to China have plummeted by 95% in January and February due to the trade war, leading to some adjustments in planting decisions by farmers. Despite this, U.S. sorghum acreage is expected to rise by 4% this year.
🌽 Flash Sale of Corn: U.S. exporters made additional corn sales this week, with 110,000 metric tons sold to Portugal and 120,000 metric tons sold to Japan for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year, indicating strong export demand despite the tariff issues.
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0:00 China Digs In
2:27 US Crop Progress
5:05 Futures Industry Consolidation
9:12 Bayer to Ditch Roundup?
10:37 Russian Wheat Prices Dip
11:36 Grain Shipments
12:41 Corn Sale to Japan
China Orders Halt on US Aircraft Purchases ✈️🇨🇳
China has ordered its airlines to stop purchasing jets, parts, and equipment from US company Boeing and other US manufacturers, escalating the trade war. This follows China's retaliatory tariffs on US imports. Despite this, hundreds of Boeing planes in China will still require maintenance and repair. 🌍⚙️
US Corn Planting Progress Lagging 🌽⏳
US corn planting is slightly behind schedule, with 4% of the crop in the ground compared to 5% on average. Planting delays are particularly noticeable in Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Soybean planting is also behind, with 2% planted nationally, on track with the five-year average. 🌾📊
Winter Wheat Ratings Remain Strong 🌾💪
Winter wheat is rated 47% good-excellent, a slight improvement from last week. However, the rating is down from last year’s 55%. The crop is progressing well, with 8% of the crop already headed. Spring wheat planting is ahead of average, with 7% completed. 🌱🌾
StoneX Acquires R.J. O’Brien 🏦💼
StoneX has acquired R.J. O'Brien & Associates for $900 million, marking a significant move in the futures brokerage industry. The deal will increase StoneX's client base and expand its global reach. The acquisition is expected to close in Q3 2024, and StoneX stock rose 4.7% following the announcement. 📈💸
Roundup Weedkiller Facing Legal and Production Challenges ⚖️💥
Bayer is considering halting production of Roundup due to ongoing lawsuits claiming the product causes cancer. With 67,000 claims pending, the future of glyphosate, a key herbicide used in US agriculture, remains uncertain. Farmers may face higher costs and reliance on imported or alternative herbicides. 🌾🚜
Russian Wheat Exports Up Despite Weather Concerns 🌾❄️
Russia's wheat prices declined last week due to improved weather conditions, though analysts warn that conditions remain volatile. Wheat exports increased by 7% week-over-week, with April export forecasts raised to 1.9 million metric tons. 🌍📉
US Corn Shipments Surge 🚢🌽
US corn shipments surged last week, with 1.8 million metric tons (72 million bushels) inspected for export. This is a 13% increase from the prior week and 34% higher than the same week last year. Soybean shipments declined slightly but were still up 22% compared to last year. 🚢🌾
Flash Sale of Corn to Japan 🌽🇯🇵
US exporters sold 120,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of corn to Japan for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year, adding to the momentum of this year’s corn sales. Accumulated sales are up 25% compared to last year. 📊🌽
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US Exempts Electronics from Tariffs 🖥️📱
The Trump administration announced a temporary exclusion for certain electronics from reciprocal tariffs, including smartphones, computers, and semiconductors. The exemption, which will be revisited later, was welcomed by markets but has raised questions about potential future tariff reassignments. As a result, the stock market saw a sharp rise this morning, while grain markets had a quiet overnight session. 🛑📉
US Dollar Index Drops Sharply 💵📉
The US dollar index fell below the 100 mark, its lowest level since April 2022, marking a 10% decline from its earlier peak. This decrease has coincided with a sell-off in US stocks and bonds, signaling concerns over Trump's protectionist policies and fears of a potential recession. The Bloomberg Commodity Index, however, rallied nearly 6% in response to the weaker dollar. 💸📊
China's Commodity Imports Slow 🚫📦
Chinese imports, including soybeans, coal, iron ore, and copper, dropped significantly in March, reflecting a slowing economy and escalating trade tensions. The decrease in soybean imports was particularly noteworthy, marking the lowest levels since 2007. Despite this, China's crude oil imports rose 20%, driven by stronger domestic demand. 🌾📉
Thailand Considers Increasing US Grain Imports 🌾🇹🇭
Thailand is exploring a $2.8 billion increase in U.S. grain imports, including soybean meal, corn, and distillers’ dried grains. The goal is to ease import restrictions and make U.S. grains more competitive, potentially reducing Thailand’s $35 billion trade surplus. The shift could make the U.S. a more significant player in Thailand's grain market, with potential purchases reaching up to 4 million metric tons of corn. 🌽📈
Argentina Faces Soybean Yield Losses 🌧️🌱
Argentina's soybean harvest is at risk due to excessive rainfall and high humidity. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports that the harvest is 4% behind the five-year average, and crop rot and pod splitting concerns are growing. Despite this, drier conditions are expected in mid-April, potentially alleviating some of the damage. 🌧️🌾
Funds Increase Net-Long Position in Corn 🌽📈
Large money managers increased their net-long position in corn last week, as revealed by the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders data. This move comes amid ongoing trade and weather concerns that are influencing the markets. 📊💹
Flash Sale of Soybeans Reported 🌱💰
USDA reported a flash sale of 121,000 metric tons (4 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations, with deliveries set for the 2024/2025 and 2025/2026 marketing years. This sale supports the notion that export demand for soybeans remains strong despite tariff concerns. 🌾📦
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0:00 China Hikes Tariff Rate
4:24 Corn is Friendly
11:15 Export Sales
13:34 Drought Monitor
16:43 South America Update
China Announces Tariff Hike to 125% 📉📦
China has increased tariffs on U.S. imports to 125%, up from the previously planned 84%. The new rate will take effect tomorrow, with Beijing asserting that American goods are no longer marketable in China. Chinese officials have dismissed U.S. tariffs as ineffective, calling them a tool of economic bullying. This move adds more strain to an already tense trade relationship. 😡📊
USDA Reduces US Corn Ending Stocks 🌽📉
The USDA reduced its 2024/2025 U.S. corn ending stocks more than anticipated, down to 1.465 billion bushels, driven by a 100 million bushel increase in the corn export forecast. This revision caused corn futures to rise by 9 cents, reaching their highest point in nearly six weeks. While soybean ending stocks came in as expected, wheat ending stocks were higher than anticipated. 📈🌾
US Export Sales Decline Across the Board 📉🌍
U.S. export sales saw a decline across corn, soybean, and wheat markets last week. Net corn sales were down 33%, net soybean sales dropped by 58%, and wheat sales also fell sharply by 68%. This trend signals potential challenges for U.S. agriculture as global demand slows. 🌎📉
Improvement in Corn Belt Drought Conditions 🌧️
Drought conditions across the U.S. Corn Belt improved significantly due to widespread heavy rainfall. Areas such as Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio saw conditions improve, while scattered rainfall in the High Plains also alleviated drought in central Oklahoma and northern Kansas. However, conditions worsened in parts of South Dakota and North Dakota. 🌾💧
Brazil's Corn and Soybean Production Forecasts Rise 📈🇧🇷
Brazil's corn production forecast was raised to 124.7 million metric tons, up from the March estimate. The revision reflects favorable conditions for Brazil's second corn crop. Additionally, Brazil's soybean production estimate was slightly raised to 167.9 million metric tons. Conversely, Argentina's corn forecast was increased to 48.5 million metric tons, while its soybean forecast was trimmed to 45.5 million metric tons. 🌽📊
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Trump's Trade Moves Spark Market Rally 📈🚀
President Trump’s announcement of a 90-day pause on some reciprocal tariffs, alongside a temporary reduction in tariff rates, led to a sharp rally in the markets. Grain futures saw notable gains, with soybeans climbing 20 cents, corn gaining 5 cents, and wheat rising nearly 8 cents per bushel. The stock market followed suit, with the S&P 500 surging 9.5%, marking its largest single-day gain since 2008. WTI crude also saw a 4.7% jump, settling at $62.35 per barrel. The Nasdaq rose 12%, recording its best day in 24 years. 📊💥
Farmer Financial Aid Still Under Consideration 🌱💰
The Trump administration is considering financial aid options for farmers impacted by the ongoing trade war. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins emphasized that while the goal is to eliminate the need for aid, tariffs are intended to realign the economy for long-term prosperity. The government had previously provided $28 billion in aid to farmers during the trade war with China. With the heightened risk of further escalation, U.S. farm operations are under pressure, with a notable rise in bankruptcies. 🌾📉
China's Soybean Imports Despite Tariffs 🇨🇳🌾
Despite the tariff war, China is expected to import a significant volume of U.S. soybeans. Around 3 million metric tons of soybeans are scheduled for shipment to China by the end of May. However, a portion of these shipments will face increased tariffs—up to 44% for some cargoes. This could lead to concerns about potential cancellations, particularly as cheaper soybeans from Brazil become available. 🌾💰
Executive Order to Boost U.S. Shipbuilding ⚓
President Trump signed an executive order aimed at revitalizing the U.S. shipbuilding industry. The initiative, which includes allocating funding, aims to reduce China’s influence on global shipping. However, the plan to impose a fee of $1 million on Chinese ships docking at U.S. ports has faced strong opposition from the global shipping industry. The American Farm Bureau Federation has warned that this could raise U.S. soybean export costs by 9.5 to 27.5 cents per bushel. 🚢🌍
USDA’s Monthly Crop Reports Out Today 📊🌽
The USDA is set to release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports today at 11 a.m. CST. Analysts expect a reduction in the projected corn ending stocks due to higher export projections, while soybean and wheat ending stocks are likely to remain unchanged. The official 2025/2026 balance sheets will be released in May. 🌾📅
U.S. Ethanol Stocks Reach Record Highs ⛽📈
U.S. ethanol stocks rose to 27.03 million barrels last week, marking a 1.6% increase from the previous week and a 3.2% rise from last year. However, weekly ethanol output fell 4%, with margins currently hovering near breakeven levels. 📉🚜
Flash Sale of U.S. Soybeans 🌱📦
USDA reported a flash sale of 198,000 metric tons (7 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year. Despite ongoing trade tensions, U.S. soybean sales have increased 14% compared to the same period last year. 🌾✈️
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0:00 104% Tariff Takes Effect
2:55 Stocks and Crude Fall
5:17 Corn Futures Rise
8:07 Biofuel News
9:08 AGCO
10:05 Russia Wheat Damage
11:07 Corn Flash
Trump Administration's 104% Tariff on Chinese Goods Takes Effect
The Trump administration’s 104% tariff on Chinese goods officially went into effect early this morning, escalating trade tensions. China has rejected the move as "blackmail," making a near-term resolution unlikely. Meanwhile, the U.S. also implemented reciprocal tariffs on about 60 countries.
Equities and Oil Prices See Sharp Declines
The U.S. stock market experienced a major drop on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all retreating sharply. The S&P 500 entered "bear market" territory, having fallen more than 19% from its all-time highs. WTI crude oil also fell nearly 2%, reaching its lowest level since April 2021.
Corn Futures Rise on Weather Concerns
U.S. corn futures saw a 4-cent increase on Tuesday, reaching $4.69 per bushel. The rally was driven by expectations surrounding Thursday’s USDA report and concerns about planting delays due to historic rainfall in the Midwest and southern U.S. Analysts expect U.S. corn ending stocks to decline by 2% from March estimates. The USDA's Crop Production and WASDE reports are due Thursday at 11 a.m. CST.
US Oil & Biofuel Groups Push for Higher Biomass Diesel Mandates
U.S. oil and biofuel groups are advocating for an increase in biomass diesel mandates, proposing a 5.25 billion gallon mandate for 2026. While the suggestion falls short of previous proposals for 5.5-5.75 billion gallons, it highlights the sector’s desire for a more robust advanced biofuel market.
AGCO Suspends Some Agricultural Equipment Shipments
AGCO, known for brands like Massey Ferguson and Hesston, has announced it will suspend certain agricultural equipment shipments into the U.S. due to the impact of tariffs. Although the company will continue importing parts, this move reflects the growing concern over the toll that tariffs are taking on agricultural machinery sales.
Russia’s Wheat Crop Faces Extreme Weather Threats
Russia’s wheat crop is under threat from extreme weather, including a hailstorm in Stavropol, a major wheat-producing region, and recent snowstorms with sub-zero temperatures. Despite these challenges, the Russian agriculture ministry claims that crop losses are under 3%, and the overall situation remains stable. However, authorities have warned that they may implement export restrictions if crop production falls short of expectations.
Flash Sale of U.S. Corn
U.S. exporters sold 240,000mt (9 million bushels) of corn to Spain for the 2024/2025 marketing year, according to USDA. This sale highlights the competitiveness of U.S. corn in the global market.
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0:00 US/China
2:49 EU Proposes "Zero for Zero"
5:33 Fake News
7:08 Corn is Strong
9:27 Crop Progress
10:37 Strong Corn/Soybean Shipments
President Trump Escalates Trade Tensions with New Tariffs 📈
President Trump ramped up the trade war by threatening a 50% tariff on China, which would increase the total tariff rate on Chinese goods to a staggering 104%. This announcement came after China imposed retaliatory tariffs, including a 34% tariff on U.S. imports. Despite these growing tensions, the market selloff eased after news that the Federal Reserve might lower interest rates, and China signaled readiness for further stimulus to boost consumption. While the tariffs remain controversial, some optimism remains in the markets, particularly regarding potential trade talks with Japan and other countries. 🤝
EU Proposes Zero-for-Zero Tariff Deal with the U.S. 🚗
In a bid to avoid a full-blown trade war, the EU proposed a zero-for-zero tariff deal with the U.S. focusing on cars and industrial products. However, the EU also warned of 25% tariffs on U.S. goods if a deal isn't reached by April 15. The EU's proposed agreement could have a significant impact on trade relations, especially with the U.S. demanding commitments from Europe to purchase $350 billion in American energy products. This raises the question—could Trump push for similar deals for U.S. grain exports? 🌾
False CNBC Report Adds Confusion to Market Chaos 📉
CNBC’s unconfirmed report about a potential 90-day tariff pause triggered confusion and a massive selloff in markets, with the Dow experiencing record intraday volatility. Although the White House denied the claims, the confusion contributed to an already tense market environment. 📉
US Corn Futures Hold Steady Despite Tariff Concerns 🌽
U.S. corn futures rallied on Monday, closing above near-term resistance. The May25 contract gained 4+ cents, reaching its highest level in over two weeks. Corn futures have largely remained unaffected by the escalating tariff headlines, with shipments to Mexico and Japan continuing without disruption. In the coming week, U.S. trade talks with Japan will take priority, potentially boosting corn exports. 📈
USDA’s Crop Progress Report Shows Early Planting Activity 🌱
USDA’s first national Crop Progress report for the year shows U.S. corn planting at 2% complete, slightly behind the 3% pace from last year. Spring wheat planting is also on track, with 3% of the crop in the ground. The U.S. winter wheat crop is rated 48% good to excellent, slightly below the five-year average. 🌾
Solid Corn and Soybean Shipments 📦
USDA reported solid corn and soybean shipments last week, with corn exports reaching 62 million bushels and soybean shipments up 64% from the same week last year. Wheat exports, however, were down significantly, with a 33% decrease from the previous week. 📊
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Soybean Futures Drop After China's Retaliatory Tariffs 📉
Soybean futures fell sharply on Friday after China announced retaliatory tariffs, with the May25 contract dropping nearly 35 cents to $9.77 per bushel. The 34% tariff on U.S. goods, announced in response to President Trump’s 10% tariff on imports, added further pressure on the market. This was the lowest soybean price for a front-month contract since mid-December. 🌱💸
Oil Prices Hit Four-Year Low Amid Tariff Fears and OPEC+ Production Boost 🛢️
Oil prices tumbled to a four-year low last week due to the combination of new tariffs and OPEC+ decisions to increase production. WTI crude dropped 14% between Thursday and Friday, settling near $61 per barrel. Although the Trump administration's sanctions on oil-producing nations may continue to create supply risks, oil prices are expected to remain volatile as recession fears mount. The May WTI contract is now trading below $60. 🏭📉
Historic S&P 500 Selloff as New Tariffs Deepen Market Turmoil 📉💥
The S&P 500 experienced a historic selloff, declining more than 10% in just two days. This marks one of the worst declines in over 70 years, driven more by market sentiment and speculation than economic data. Despite this, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has stated that the Fed is not rushing to cut interest rates. The market is positioned for a potential short-term rebound, but a significant policy shift may be needed for a sustained recovery. 📊📉
Several Countries Opt for Negotiation Over Retaliation 🌍💬
Taiwan, Vietnam, and India have expressed interest in negotiating trade deals with the U.S. in response to the reciprocal tariffs. These countries aim to reduce or eliminate existing tariffs rather than retaliate, with Taiwan acknowledging the challenges the new tariffs pose. Vietnam's willingness to negotiate could pave the way for other countries, like Indonesia and Cambodia, to follow suit. Over 50 countries have reportedly reached out to the White House to discuss reducing trade barriers. 🤝🌏
Severe Flooding in the Midwest Threatens Infrastructure 🌧️🌊
The Midwest has been hit by historic rainfall, leading to flash floods and major infrastructure disruptions. Over 16 fatalities have been confirmed, and over 50 river locations are at major flood stage. Areas such as Kentucky, Arkansas, and Missouri have received over 8 inches of rain, with some regions seeing over a foot. Flooding could lead to shipping delays and supply chain disruptions in key agricultural areas. 🌧️🚧
Increased Net-Long Position in Corn Futures 🌽📈
CFTC data revealed that large money managers increased their net-long position in the corn market last week, buying 55k corn contracts. This is the first time since February that funds were net buyers. The funds also bought 30k soybean contracts, while selling 10k contracts of SRW wheat. 📊🌽
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0:00 China Retaliates
1:49 More Direct Payments are Coming
7:08 Stock Market Crash
11:11 Mexico Won't Retaliate
13:52 Severe Storms
17:48 Drought Monitor
20:06 Export Sales
Farm Aid Package: Potential for Direct Payments 💸🌾
The possibility of more direct financial aid for farmers affected by tariffs is still under consideration. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins stated that the Trump administration will decide in the coming months whether to provide assistance to offset losses from the ongoing trade disputes. The previous trade war resulted in a $23 billion bailout for farmers, and this time, the aid package could be much larger due to tariffs on multiple countries. This discussion comes as $10 billion in ECAP funds are already being distributed. 🌽🌍
Stock Market Decline Amid Tariff Concerns 📉💥
The stock market plummeted on Thursday, with the S&P 500 hitting its largest single-day drop since 2020, falling nearly 5%. The Dow Jones and Nasdaq also faced sharp losses. Concerns over the impact of President Trump's new tariffs, coupled with fears of a potential recession, contributed to the decline. J.P. Morgan predicts that a recession could be likely if tariffs remain unchanged. 📉💰
Commodity Index Takes a Hit ⬇️📊
The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index saw its biggest drop in over two years, falling by 2.5%. While oil and steel were excluded from Trump’s tariffs, commodity prices were still impacted by market fears of a global economic slowdown. In addition, OPEC+ announced plans to increase oil production, which caused a sharp decline in WTI crude prices, marking its steepest loss since July 2022. 🛢️📉
Mexico's Response to Tariffs 🇲🇽📦
Mexico has decided not to retaliate against U.S. tariffs but instead will introduce its own comprehensive tariff program. Mexico remains the largest importer of U.S. corn, and Trump’s 25% tariff will apply to certain imports not covered by the USMCA trade agreement. While Mexico avoids reciprocal tariffs, its agricultural sector may still be impacted by trade disruptions. 🌽⚖️
Severe Storms Cause Damage Across the US 🌪️💨
Severe storms, including tornadoes and heavy rainfall, caused extensive damage from Oklahoma to Indiana, with at least six fatalities reported. Major flooding is expected, especially along the Mississippi River and in parts of Kentucky and Tennessee. The storm system is forecast to continue through the weekend, with some areas receiving over a foot of rain. 🌧️🌪️
Drought Monitor Update 🌾💧
USDA’s weekly drought monitor reported improvements in drought conditions across parts of the Corn Belt, especially in northern areas like Wisconsin, Michigan, and southern Minnesota, following a winter storm. However, drought conditions persist in about 28% of the region, impacting areas crucial for corn, soybeans, and wheat production. 🌾💦
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0:00 Tariffs and Lower Markets
5:10 Historic Corn Belt Flooding
8:07 Ethanol Production
9:00 China Ship Sales Decline
10:43 Flash Sale
Trump's Trade War Escalates: New Tariffs Imposed 🌍💥
President Trump escalated the trade war on Wednesday, announcing a 10% tariff on all imports set to take effect on Saturday. Additionally, he introduced a reciprocal tariff policy targeting 180 nations, including the EU (20%), Vietnam (46%), Taiwan (32%), and a 34% tariff on China, bringing the total tariff rate on Chinese goods to 54%. These reciprocal tariffs will begin on April 9, with Canada and Mexico exempt, though imports not covered by the USMCA agreement will face a 25% tariff. Corn and soybean futures dropped sharply in response, while the US stock market fell to fresh lows overnight. 📉💰
Historic Flooding Forecast for the Corn Belt 🌧️🌊
Severe flooding is expected in the Corn Belt, with a storm system that started on Wednesday causing significant rainfall. Areas in Southeast Missouri, Southern Indiana, Southern Illinois, Kentucky, and Southern Ohio are at risk of receiving between 10 to 15 inches of rain, with more moderate amounts expected in other regions. Over 32 million people are under a flood watch, and the flooding is expected to impact agricultural production in these regions. 🌽🌾
US Ethanol Production Increases 📈🌱
US ethanol production increased by 1% last week, totaling 1.06 million barrels per day. Ethanol stocks decreased by 2.7% but are still 1% higher compared to the same time last year. Despite the recent dip, stock levels remain historically high. Ethanol production margins are currently near breakeven levels, according to Reuters data. 📊💡
Chinese Ship Sales Decline Amid Port Fee Threat 🚢❌
Chinese ship sales dropped sharply in March due to President Trump's threat to impose a $1 million port fee on Chinese vessels. This has raised concerns in the global shipping industry, particularly regarding the impact on US grain exports. The American Farm Bureau Federation estimates that the proposed shipping fees could increase soybean export costs by 9.5 to 27.5 cents per bushel. 🚢📉
Flash Sale of Soybean Cake and Meal 🛍️🌾
US exporters sold 135,000mt of soybean cake and meal to the Philippines for the 2024/2025 marketing year. This marks the first flash sale of soybean cake and meal for the year. 🌱
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0:00 Soybeans and Biofuel Push
3:23 "Liberation Day"
5:04 Heavy US Rainfall
7:55 Farmer Sentiment Declines
9:54 StoneX Cuts Brazil Crop Estimates
Biofuel Groups Push for Higher Diesel Mandates ⚡💡
U.S. oil and biofuel groups, including the American Petroleum Institute, are pushing the EPA to increase federal biomass diesel blending mandates to 5.5–5.75 billion gallons, up from the current 3.35 billion gallons. The ethanol blending requirement is expected to stay at 15 billion gallons. However, smaller refiners and fuel retailers oppose the increase, warning of higher fuel costs and potential job losses. Additionally, some industry members are calling for the reinstatement of the blenders tax credit, arguing that the expired credit kept fuel prices lower for consumers. 🌱⛽
Trump's Reciprocal Tariffs Begin Today 📅⚖️
President Trump's reciprocal tariffs on all U.S. trading partners go into effect today. Although the specific details of the tariffs will be announced at 3 p.m. Central time, these tariffs are expected to impact U.S. agriculture, with Mexico, Canada, and China being the top buyers of U.S. agricultural products. Retaliatory tariffs could target nearly $27 billion worth of U.S. agricultural goods, potentially harming farmers. Meanwhile, Canada has reportedly decided to avoid counter-tariffs on most food imports from the U.S. 🥩🌾
Heavy Rains to Impact the Central U.S. 🌧️
Rainfall is expected to accumulate across the central U.S. Corn Belt, particularly in southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and parts of Tennessee, Arkansas, and Missouri. Some areas could see between 10 and 16 inches of rain over the next five days, which may impact planting schedules and soil conditions. 🌧️🌽
Farmer Sentiment Drops Amid Trade and Policy Uncertainty 🌾📉
U.S. farmer sentiment fell in March, according to Purdue University's CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The index dropped to 140, a 12-point decrease from February. Falling crop prices and trade policy uncertainty, particularly regarding tariffs, contributed to the decline. A record number of farmers expect exports to decline in the next five years, and nearly two-thirds of respondents anticipate that a second round of Market Facilitation Program payments will be necessary to mitigate trade war impacts. 📉🌾
Brazil’s Soybean and Corn Crops Lowered 🌾📊
Brazil’s soybean crop estimate has been reduced to 167.4 million metric tons due to adverse weather in Rio Grande do Sul. Additionally, the forecasts for both the first and second corn crops have been lowered. Despite these cuts, Brazil's second corn crop is expected to receive normal rainfall over the next 14 days, and no weather issues are currently anticipated. 🌱🌽
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0:00 More Cash 4 Farmers
5:11 USDA Report
9:44 Heavy Rains
11:00 Russia Wheat Update
11:47 Strong Grain Shipments
Trump Administration Considers Financial Aid Package for Farmers Amid Trade War 🏦🌾
The Trump administration is preparing a financial aid package for farmers as reciprocal tariffs are set to be imposed on all U.S. trading partners tomorrow. This move is expected to trigger retaliatory tariffs that could severely impact U.S. agriculture. The new aid package could be larger than the $23 billion bailout from the 2018 trade war with China. In that previous conflict, U.S. agriculture suffered a $27 billion loss in exports. The current situation with tariffs targeting multiple countries could result in a higher cost for the aid package. 🌍💸
US Farmers Set to Plant Most Corn Acres in 12 Years 🌽📈
The USDA's Prospective Plantings report shows that U.S. farmers intend to plant the highest number of corn acres in 12 years, with an estimated 95.3 million acres—up 5% from last season. Soybean plantings are projected at 83.5 million acres, marking a 4% decline from last year, while wheat plantings are forecast at 45.4 million acres, down nearly 2%. The USDA's quarterly grain stocks report revealed a decrease in U.S. corn stocks, but an increase in soybean and wheat stocks compared to the previous year. 🌾🌱
Heavy Rains Expected Across Central US 🌧️🌾
Heavy rainfall is predicted to impact areas from eastern Texas through Ohio, with some regions potentially receiving up to 15 inches of rain over the next 10 days. The excessive rainfall could cause flooding and delay the planting of corn and soybeans in affected areas. Farmers in the wettest regions typically aim to plant early corn by today, so the heavy rains could hinder their ability to do so. 🌧️🚜
Russia's Wheat Crop Forecast Revised Down 📉🌾
Russia's wheat crop forecast for 2025/2026 has been lowered to 80.3 million metric tons, down from the November estimate of 81.5 million metric tons. Dry conditions earlier in the season, particularly for spring wheat, have negatively impacted crop prospects. However, recent improvements in winter wheat conditions and expected rain could provide some relief to the crop. 🌧️🌾
US Corn Shipments Strong, Soybean Shipments Surge 📦🌽
U.S. corn shipments exceeded expectations last week, with 1.6 million metric tons (64 million bushels) inspected for export. This represents a 5% increase compared to the previous week and a 9.7% rise from the same week last year. Soybean shipments also surpassed expectations at 793,250 metric tons (29 million bushels), up 54% from the same week last year. Wheat shipments, though down from the previous week, were still close to expectations. 📦🌾
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0:00 Acreage Report Reliability
3:32 Wheat Collapse
7:44 China Grain News
9:24 China Cash Injection
10:19 The Funds
11:09 Trump/Canada Talks
USDA Report to Release Key Data on Plantings and Grain Stocks
The USDA will release its highly anticipated Prospective Plantings and quarterly Grain Stocks report today. Traders expect to see a significant increase in U.S. corn plantings compared to last year, while a notable decline in soybean plantings is anticipated. U.S. corn stocks as of March 1st are expected to be down 2.4% from the same time last year, while soybean stocks are expected to be up by 3%. Wheat stocks are forecasted to rise by 11.6%.
Chicago Wheat Futures Drop to 8-Month Low
Wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade dropped to their lowest level in nearly eight months on Friday, with the May25 contract losing almost 4 cents, closing near $5.28 per bushel. Prices have been pressured by ongoing peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, as well as ample global supplies. Weak export demand and beneficial rainfall across the U.S. Plains also contributed to the market's decline. Traders are positioning ahead of today's USDA reports.
China’s Focus on Agricultural Self-Sufficiency
China is investing heavily in improving agricultural land to strengthen national food security. The nation aims to transform 200 million acres into high-standard farmland by 2030, utilizing technology to improve soil quality, crop management, and disaster resilience. By 2035, all basic farmland is expected to meet high-standard criteria. China is prioritizing food self-sufficiency and diversifying its agricultural supply chains amidst rising geopolitical tensions.
China Boosts Economy with Investment in State Banks
China has invested $69 billion into four state-owned banks to bolster their financial stability and support economic growth. The government’s move will help these banks expand, strengthen their capital reserves, and invest in emerging industries. This investment also aims to address pressure from narrowing profit margins due to interest rate cuts.
Funds Reduce Corn Market Exposure
CFTC data shows that "The Funds" reduced their net-long position in the corn market last week, with large money managers selling 31k corn contracts. Since mid-February, the funds have slashed their net-long position by 286k contracts. The funds were also net sellers of soybean and SRW wheat contracts.
President Trump and Canadian PM Discuss Tariffs and Trade Framework
President Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney held a productive phone call on Friday, though Canada remains set to impose retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. this week in response to Trump's planned reciprocal tariffs. Carney criticized the tariff threats as a betrayal of the USMCA agreement. Going forward, the two leaders plan to negotiate a new economic and security framework after Canada’s upcoming election.
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President Trump Considering Lowering Tariffs on China for TikTok Agreement 🇨🇳📉
President Trump is reportedly considering reducing tariffs on Chinese imports as part of efforts to secure a deal with TikTok's parent company, ByteDance. This comes after President Biden's law requiring ByteDance to sell TikTok's U.S. operations by January 19. Trump extended the deadline to April 5 to allow more time for negotiations. If no deal is reached by then, Trump is open to further extensions. The move is being considered amid talks with four potential buyers. Additionally, Trump is set to announce reciprocal tariffs next week. Soybean futures rallied yesterday, possibly influenced by these developments and concerns about low U.S. soybean acreage. 🌱💼
USDA Report to Release Prospective Plantings & Quarterly Grain Stocks 📊🌾
The USDA will release its Prospective Plantings and quarterly Grain Stocks report on Monday, which traders are closely watching. Expectations include a significant rise in U.S. corn plantings compared to last year, while soybean acreage is anticipated to decline. Corn stocks as of March 1st are expected to be down 2.4% from last year, while soybean stocks are expected to rise by 3%, and wheat stocks are forecasted to increase by 11.6%. These reports will provide key insights into market trends. 📉📈
President Trump Encourages Collaboration on U.S. Biofuels Policy 🚗🌱
President Trump has directed the U.S. fuel and oil industries to work together on shaping future biofuels policy. Two meetings have taken place, with discussions focusing on biofuel blending requirements, small refiner exemptions, and biofuel tax policies. The industry also discussed the 45Z tax credit and the potential for increasing the renewable diesel and biodiesel mandate. The new mandate range could be between 4.75 billion and 5.5 billion gallons, compared to the current 3.35 billion gallons. ⚡🚗
USDA Weekly Drought Monitor: Corn Belt Sees Improvement 🌧️🌽
The USDA's latest drought monitor showed improvements in large portions of the Corn Belt, with snow and rainfall benefiting areas like Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, and Illinois. However, conditions worsened in Missouri, and dry weather in South Dakota, Kansas, and Oklahoma has led to deteriorating drought conditions in those areas. Drought is impacting 44% of U.S. corn, 36% of soybeans, and 38% of winter wheat. 🌧️📊
US Corn Export Sales Decline 📉
US corn export sales were reported at 1 million metric tons (41 million bushels) last week, down 31% from the previous week but in line with the 4-week average. The largest buyer was Japan. Soybean sales were below expectations at 338,500 metric tons (12 million bushels), down 4% from the prior week and 28% from the 4-week average. Wheat sales also came in lower than expected at 100,300 metric tons (4 million bushels), down 65% from the previous week. 🌍📉
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0:00 Corn Acreage "Whisper Number"
3:09 Auto Tariffs
5:04 Black Sea Exports
8:02 Nutrien Fertilizer Thoughts
8:59 Why Are Ethanol Stocks So High?
10:16 JBS News
US Corn Futures Fall Amid Increased Acreage Expectations-
U.S. corn futures dropped on Wednesday, with the May25 contract falling nearly 7 cents to $4.51 per bushel. Traders are anticipating a significant rise in corn acreage this year, with analysts estimating 94.4 million acres, up 4.2% from last year. Soybean futures were mostly unchanged, with expectations for acreage totaling 83.8 million, a decrease of 3.8% from last season. Wheat futures were under pressure due to potential developments surrounding the Black Sea ceasefire agreement.
President Trump to Impose 25% Tariff on Imported Vehicles-
President Trump announced that a 25% tariff will be imposed on all imported vehicles starting April 2, 2025. This permanent tariff is expected to significantly raise vehicle costs, potentially adding up to $12,000 to certain models. The move comes despite initial opposition from U.S. automakers who warned that such tariffs would harm their businesses. This new tariff will likely affect Mexico, the largest exporter of automobiles to the U.S., and Japan, the second largest exporter. Both countries are also major buyers of U.S. corn.
Russian and Ukrainian Agricultural Exports Near Pre-War Levels-
Despite ongoing conflicts, Russian and Ukrainian agricultural exports are almost back to pre-war levels. Ukraine's Black Sea grain shipments are performing near pre-war figures, and Russia continues to dominate the global wheat market. If a ceasefire agreement is reached, it is expected to reduce shipping costs by lowering war-related insurance premiums, making trade in the region more efficient.
Nutrien Believes Black Sea Ceasefire Won't Significantly Impact Global Supplies-
Nutrien, a Canadian fertilizer company, believes the proposed Black Sea ceasefire deal will have minimal impact on global fertilizer or grain supplies this year. Russian fertilizer exports are operating near full capacity, and Ukraine continues strong exports through alternative routes.
US Ethanol Production Declines-
U.S. ethanol production saw a decline last week, with weekly output of 1.05 million barrels per day down 4.7% from the previous week and slightly lower than the same week last year. Ethanol stocks rose by 2.9% from the previous week and 4.8% year-over-year, staying at levels comparable to early COVID times.
JBS Surpasses Earnings Expectations-
JBS, the world's largest meatpacker, reported fourth-quarter earnings that exceeded expectations, more than double the prior year. Strong demand for chicken and pork boosted earnings as consumers turned to more affordable meat options. However, JBS faces challenges due to historically low U.S. cattle supplies, which have driven beef prices to all-time highs.
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0:00 Is Brazil Buying US Corn?
3:15 Corn Futures Decline
7:46 Black Sea News
8:51 US Will Help Russia Ship Grain
9:59 Black Sea Fertilizer Impact
Rising Corn Prices in Brazil 🌽💰
Corn prices in Brazil have surged, driven by low stock levels and increased demand from the ethanol and livestock industries. Some areas have seen price increases of over 23% year-over-year. This price spike is expected to contribute to inflationary pressures, with agricultural consulting group Datagro estimating that food inflation could rise by 1% in the next six months. Over the past year, prices for poultry, beef, and pork have risen sharply—by 11%, 21%, and 20%, respectively. There have also been rumors about small U.S. corn exports to Brazil, a market that occasionally imports limited quantities of U.S. corn. 🌽📈
U.S. Corn Futures Decline 📉
U.S. corn futures fell on Tuesday, with the May25 contract dropping nearly 7 cents to settle near $4.58 per bushel. This decline was attributed to strong planting progress in the South, particularly in Louisiana, Texas, Mississippi, and Arkansas. Traders are also positioning ahead of the USDA's upcoming grain stocks and prospective planting reports, with expectations for a 94.4 million-acre U.S. corn planting estimate for 2025. 🌾🌎
Russia and Ukraine Agree to Black Sea Deal ⚖️
Russia and Ukraine have reached a significant agreement allowing safe passage in the Black Sea and halting attacks on each other’s energy facilities. The U.S. facilitated the deal, which also includes assistance for Russia in expanding its grain and fertilizer exports. The U.S. will help Russia by reducing shipping insurance costs, improving market access, and easing port and payment restrictions. However, the deal is contingent on the EU lifting certain sanctions on Russia. Ukraine has expressed opposition to easing sanctions. ⚓🌍
CF Industries Stock Decline 📉
CF Industries Holdings saw its stock drop more than 4% on Tuesday, hitting its lowest level in nearly eight months. The decline followed the announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine, which raised the likelihood of reduced trade sanctions on Russia. This is expected to increase fertilizer supplies from the region, lower shipping costs, and reduce market volatility, benefiting Russia’s fertilizer exports. 📉💡
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Soybean Export Concerns and Proposed Shipping Fees 🚢
Mike Koehne, a director for the American Soybean Association, voiced concerns during a U.S. Trade Representative investigation into China’s shipbuilding industry. He highlighted that the proposed shipping fees could significantly increase the cost of U.S. soybeans and make them less competitive globally. With 9.5 to 27.5 cents per bushel of soybeans at risk due to higher shipping costs, ASA urges the USTR to collaborate with industries to strengthen maritime trade without harming agriculture. 🌾🚢
Russia's Wheat Crop Forecast Improved 🌾
Russian consulting firm IKAR has raised its forecast for Russia's wheat crop to 82.5 million metric tons (mmt), up nearly 2% from earlier estimates. While conditions in the south-central regions have improved, uncertainty remains in the Volga region. IKAR's projections range between 78.5 mmt and 86.5 mmt. This adjustment reflects a more optimistic outlook, though the situation is still evolving. 🇷🇺🌾
US and Russia Discuss Black Sea Grain Deal ⚖️
Discussions in Saudi Arabia between U.S. and Russian officials have focused on potentially reinstating the Black Sea grain deal. Russia, which withdrew from the agreement last year, raised concerns about barriers to its own food and fertilizer exports. The deal was originally meant to facilitate safe grain exports from Ukraine despite the war. A joint statement regarding the outcome of the talks is expected soon. 🌍🌾
Brazil’s Soybean Production Revised Down 🌱🇧🇷
Brazil's soybean production forecast has been slightly reduced due to drought conditions affecting southern Brazil. The new estimate stands at 165.9 mmt, a 1.4% decrease from earlier projections. However, the country is still on track for a record soybean harvest, particularly in Mato Grosso. Harvest progress is advancing rapidly, with 77% of the crop already collected. 🌱💧
Brazil's Economic Outlook 🌍📉
Despite concerns over Brazil's slowing economy and rising interest rates, Bloomberg Economics reports only a 10% chance of a recession. While higher rates are cooling inflation, the delayed effects are still unfolding. A potential recession would likely have minimal impact on soybean production, though it could affect domestic consumption, leading to more exportable supply. 💸🇧🇷
US Corn and Soybean Export Data 📈
U.S. corn shipments dropped slightly last week but remain strong, with 1.5 million metric tons (58 million bushels) inspected for export. Soybean shipments saw a significant increase, rising 25% from the prior week, with 822,214 metric tons (30 million bushels) inspected for export. Wheat export sales also exceeded expectations. 📊🚢
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0:00 Rollins BIG Announcement
3:48 Trump and China
5:19 The Funds
7:39 Mexico Corn Imports
9:02 Roundup Settlement
10:26 Cattle on Feed
Secretary Rollins on Long-Term Agricultural Prosperity 🌱🚜
US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins emphasized the long-term benefits of President Trump's policies for farmers and ranchers, despite the ongoing challenges of tariffs and market volatility. In a recent interview, Rollins acknowledged the struggles under the Biden administration but expressed confidence that, by the end of Trump's term, the agricultural industry will thrive. She highlighted the importance of short-term uncertainty for achieving long-term success. The airplane emoji in Rollins' X post could be a nod to the growing focus on sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).
Trump Teases Flexibility on Reciprocal Tariffs 💼⚖️
President Trump suggested some flexibility regarding the upcoming reciprocal tariffs, which are set to take effect on April 2. While markets briefly rallied after the statement, the excitement quickly faded as concerns about stagflation grew. Trump also mentioned that negotiations with China remain possible, with a meeting with President Xi Jinping potentially on the horizon.
Funds Trim Corn Positions 📉🌽
The latest CFTC data shows that large money managers reduced their net-long position in corn by 28k contracts. This is part of a broader trend of funds slashing their corn positions since mid-February, cutting back a total of 255k contracts. Soybean and SRW wheat positions also saw reductions.
Mexico's Corn Imports Set to Decline 🌽🇲🇽
Mexico's corn imports are forecast to decline by 3% in the 2025/2026 season, driven by a boost in domestic production and carryover stocks from record-high imports last year. Despite the drop, imports are expected to remain the second-highest on record. Increased demand for yellow corn, particularly for poultry feed, continues to drive the need for imports.
Bayer Faces Legal Setback in Roundup Lawsuit ⚖️💼
Bayer has been ordered to pay $ 2.1 billion in damages over its Roundup weedkiller, which was linked to cancer by the plaintiff. Bayer plans to appeal the ruling, and they've already spent $10 billion in settlements, part of the $16 billion allocated for Roundup-related litigation. The company has struggled since acquiring Monsanto in 2018, with stock prices dropping over 70%. 📉⚖️
Cattle on Feed Report Bullish 🐄📊 Friday
Friday's Cattle on Feed report showed a 2% decrease in cattle on feed as of March 1, compared to last year, but in line with pre-report estimates. February placements came in much lower than anticipated, suggesting a tighter supply of cattle. This is expected to be bullish for the market, as fewer cattle on feed and limited imports of Mexican feeder cattle have constrained supply. 🐄💥
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🌽 Corn Futures Rally
Corn futures surged on Thursday, with the May 2025 contract peaking near $4.70 and gaining 7 cents per bushel. However, new crop contracts saw limited gains, with the December 2025 contract rising by less than 2 cents. 📈 Strong export sales may have fueled the rally, and some analysts believe the USDA is underestimating U.S. export demand.
🌾 Wheat and Soybean Export Sales
U.S. wheat export sales saw a major net reduction last week, with a marketing-year low of 248,800mt (9 million bushels), falling below expectations. This decline was largely due to Panama, which had been a top buyer the previous week. Net corn sales, however, rose 55% from the previous week to 1.5mmt (59 million bushels), with Japan leading purchases. 🌎 Soybean sales underperformed, totaling 352,600mt (13 million bushels), down 53% from last week, with China as the largest buyer.
🌦 Drought Conditions in the U.S.
The latest USDA drought monitor shows mixed conditions across the Corn Belt. Rainfall improved drought conditions in Illinois, Indiana, and southern Michigan, but Missouri saw worsening conditions. 🌬 The High Plains faced dry, windy weather, leading to deteriorating conditions in Kansas and Oklahoma.
🔹 Corn: 53% in drought
🔹 Soybeans: 42% in drought
🔹 Winter Wheat: 34% in drought
🔹 Spring Wheat: 39% in drought
🔹 Cattle: 43% in drought
🛢 Biofuel Industry Faces Uncertainty
U.S. and Canadian biofuel companies are cutting production amid uncertainty over the Trump administration's biofuel subsidies and trade policies. The lack of finalized 45Z tax credit guidance and shifting tariff policies are creating instability. 📉 Declining demand, excess soybean supply, and a 60% drop in crush margins are expected to reduce U.S. soybean acres this spring. The biofuel sector is likely to shrink further, with significant financial losses ahead. Meanwhile, the IRS and Treasury Department are accepting public comments on the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit until April 12. Trump's regulatory freeze could delay or halt finalization.
🇦🇷 Argentina's Crop Forecast Cut
The Buenos Aires grains exchange lowered Argentina’s soybean crop forecast to 48.6mmt, down 1mmt due to hot and dry weather in the northeastern region, which accounts for 10% of production. ☀️ These conditions could reduce yields by 22%. Drought is also impacting Argentina's corn crop, with projected yields now expected to drop by 40%. Despite this, the exchange maintained its corn crop forecast at 49mmt due to a 7.6% increase in planted acres.
🥃 EU Delays Whiskey Tariff
The EU has postponed its planned 50% tariff on American whiskey, originally set for April 1, now pushed to mid-April. 🍾 This aligns with broader trade negotiations in response to U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum. U.S. distillers have been rushing shipments to Europe ahead of potential tariffs. Meanwhile, Trump has threatened a 200% tariff on European alcohol in retaliation. 🌍
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🚢 Trump’s China-Linked Ship Fees Impact US Agriculture
President Trump is drafting an executive order to impose fees of up to $1.5 million on China-built ships docking at U.S. ports. While the move aims to boost domestic shipbuilding, it has caused uncertainty for agricultural exports. 🌾 Exporters of corn, soybeans, and wheat are struggling to secure transportation beyond May due to unclear final costs. The Farm Bureau warns that bulk agricultural exporters could face an extra $372 million to $930 million in annual transportation fees.
🇨🇳 China Lowers Soybean Import Forecast
The USDA’s China attaché office has reduced its forecast for Chinese soybean imports to 106mmt this season, a 2% drop from last year. 📉 Economic challenges and shifting consumer preferences toward poultry and seafood over pork are driving the decline. Additionally, China’s soybean production is expected to decrease by 4.1% to 19.8mmt due to low market prices. The Chinese government continues to support domestic soybean production through subsidies to reduce reliance on imports.
⚡ Zelenskiy and Trump Agree to Halt Energy Strikes
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has agreed to a mutual halt on energy facility strikes following a call with President Trump. 📞 This marks a shift in tone after their tense Oval Office exchange weeks prior. Trump pledged fresh support for Ukraine, including potential air defense systems. Meanwhile, Trump also spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who agreed to pause attacks on energy sites. However, Putin insists that any broader ceasefire must include stopping weapons and intelligence aid to Ukraine and allowing Russia to keep occupied land.
🇧🇷 Brazil Cuts Soybean Production Forecast
The Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries has lowered its soybean production estimate to 170.9mmt, down slightly from 171.7mmt. 🌱 Brazil’s crop agency, Conab, estimates 167.4mmt, while the USDA projects 169mmt. Private group AgRural reports that 70% of the harvest is complete. Meanwhile, Brazilian soybean oil exports are expected to increase by 27% to 1.4mmt due to weaker domestic demand.
⛽ US Ethanol Production Remains Strong
US ethanol production reached 1.1 million barrels per day last week, up 4% from the previous week and 5.6% higher than the same time last year. 📊 Ethanol stocks were at 26.6 million barrels, down 2.9% from the previous week but up 2.2% year-over-year. Implied gasoline demand was down 4% week-over-week but remained slightly higher than last year’s levels. Over the past four weeks, gasoline demand has been relatively stable compared to last year.
💰 Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates at 4.3% on Wednesday as it continues assessing the economic impact of Trump’s policies. 🏦 Eleven of nineteen policymakers expect at least two rate cuts this year. Due to proposed tariffs, the Fed raised its 2024 inflation forecast to 2.7%, up from 2.5%. However, inflation is expected to decline in 2026-2027. The Fed also revised its GDP growth projection for 2025 to 1.7%, down from its December estimate of 2.1%, citing economic uncertainty driven by tariffs, deregulation, and energy policies.
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0:00 Direct Payment Details
3:38 US Acreage Ideas
8:24 Brazil Increases Ethanol Blend Rate
9:54 China Reduces Grain Imports
11:25 Bessent Says No Recession
USDA Boosts Economic Aid for Farmers 💵🌾
The USDA is accelerating the distribution of $10 billion in economic aid to farmers through the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program (ECAP). These funds are aimed at supporting farmers facing challenging market conditions and rising input costs. Enrollment starts today, with funds available for both planted and prevented plant crop acres during the 2024 crop year. More details and the ECAP payment calculator are available on the USDA website. 🚜💰
S&P Global Increases US Corn Acreage Forecast 🌽📊
S&P Global Commodity Insights raised its forecast for US corn acreage to 94.3 million acres, up 800,000 from January's estimate. This increase reflects the growing demand for corn. However, soybean acreage is expected to decline to 83.3 million acres. Last year's acreage was higher, at 86.1 million acres. 📈🌱
Brazil Proposes Higher Ethanol Blend in Gasoline ⛽🌿
Brazil is considering raising the ethanol blend in gasoline from 27.5% to 30% to meet rising ethanol demand. This move is expected to boost annual ethanol demand by 1.3 billion liters, with 12 new corn ethanol plants under construction. The proposal is set to be approved later this year, paving the way for increased ethanol production. 🌾🌍
China's Sharp Decline in Corn and Wheat Imports 📉🌾
China’s imports of corn and wheat plummeted in January and February, dropping by 97.1% and 95.6%, respectively. The country's food security policy focuses on self-sufficiency, leading to significantly lower import needs. USDA has lowered its forecast for China’s corn imports this year to 8 million metric tons, down from an initial 23 million. Wheat imports have also been revised down to 6.5 million metric tons. 🚫🌾
Treasury Secretary Confident in US Economy 💼📈
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed confidence in the U.S. economy's resilience, citing strong credit card and bank data. While acknowledging a potential slowdown as the economy adjusts to reduced government spending, Bessent emphasized that President Trump is focusing on revitalizing manufacturing and improving affordability. He also noted that reciprocal tariffs for each country will be announced on April 2. 💪💸
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0:00 Wheat Rally
2:29 Poor Soybean Crush
5:06 China Meat Update
7:59 Brazil Crop Update
9:59 USTR
11:22 Grain Shipments
Wheat Futures Surge Amid Storm Concerns 🌾💨
Wheat futures climbed higher on Monday due to concerns over crop damage from severe windstorms and tornadoes in the Midwest and Plains. The full extent of the damage remains uncertain, but the intensity of the winds and dust is expected to impact the affected fields significantly. The rise in futures was further supported by Russia reducing its wheat export forecast and strong U.S. wheat export sales from last week. 🌪️📈
Soybean Crush Declines in February 🥄📉
The U.S. soybean crush hit its lowest level in five months, with NOPA members processing 177.9 million bushels in February. The crush was down 11.2% from January and fell short of trade expectations. Despite the lower crush, soybean oil stocks rose to an eight-month high, with stocks increasing by 18% from January. 📊🛢️
China Renews Export Licenses for U.S. Pork & Poultry 🐖🐔
China has renewed export licenses for U.S. pork and poultry facilities, allowing them to continue shipments for the next five years. However, the renewal for U.S. beef facilities is still pending. The Phase One trade agreement had expected automatic renewals, but trade tensions remain as retaliatory tariffs continue on U.S. agricultural products. 🇨🇳💥
Brazil’s Soybean Harvest on Track 🇧🇷🌱
Brazil’s soybean harvest is progressing at its fastest rate in 14 years, with 70% of the crop harvested as of last Thursday. Despite the accelerated pace, there are concerns about yield losses in Rio Grande do Sul due to hot and dry conditions. AgRural also reported that Brazilian farmers had planted 97% of their second corn crop. 🌾🌞
Greer Aims to Smooth Tariff Implementation 💼⚖️
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer is working to ensure the smoother implementation of President Trump’s upcoming tariffs. Despite ongoing tariff-related confusion and market volatility, Greer is bringing back traditional processes, including public comments. While concerns over legal challenges persist, Trump remains firm on moving forward with the tariff plan. 📉📑
U.S. Export Shipments Show Mixed Results 🚢📉
U.S. corn shipments declined slightly last week, but they remained strong, with 1.7 million metric tons inspected for export. Soybean shipments dropped by 24% compared to the prior week, while wheat shipments surged by 104%, surpassing expectations. The wheat shipment increase reflects strong demand despite ongoing tariff uncertainties. 🌽🌾
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China Retires Meat Export Licenses 🚫🥩
Hundreds of U.S. meat exporters have lost their authorization to send beef, pork, and poultry to China, potentially costing the beef industry $4.1 billion and the pork industry $1.3 billion. This move comes amid trade tensions, with speculations about a shift in China’s trade policies, including increasing inquiries for Australian beef. Despite the challenges, U.S. exporters still have significant unshipped soybean sales to China. 🌏💸
Wheat Futures Soar 🌾📈
Wheat futures are trading sharply higher, especially HRW contracts, following news that Russian wheat export forecasts were trimmed. This has led to increased export demand for U.S. wheat. Weather forecasts show minimal rain for U.S. HRW wheat regions but slightly better rainfall for SRW wheat areas. The strong export sales last week further support the positive market movement. 🌾🌧
Brazil's Soybean Harvest Ahead of Last Year’s Pace 🇧🇷🌱
Brazil's soybean harvest is progressing faster than last year, with 66% of the crop harvested compared to 62% at the same time last year. Despite hot and dry conditions in some southern regions, the national crop is expected to set a record. However, U.S. soybeans are still non-competitive against Brazil's exports, especially with pricing data showing a premium for U.S. soybeans. 🌞📊
Funds Trim Their Corn Positions 📉🌽
The funds significantly reduced their net-long position in the corn market, selling 74,000 contracts. Over the past three weeks, the funds have slashed their positions by 227,000 contracts. They were net buyers of soybeans and SRW wheat, signaling a shift in market focus. 📉💼
Tax Cuts and Budget Balancing Plan 💰📊
President Trump’s administration plans to cut federal income taxes for individuals earning less than $150,000 annually. The strategy to balance the budget includes reallocating $1 trillion from wasteful spending and generating an additional $1 trillion through the sale of a "gold card." While tax cuts may be beneficial, the focus remains on the long-term fiscal health of the country. 💵⚖️
Flash Sales for U.S. Exports 🌾🚢
USDA reported two flash sales on Friday, with U.S. exporters selling 218,604 metric tons of corn and 20,000 metric tons of soybean oil to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year. These sales provide a positive signal for U.S. agricultural exports despite current uncertainties. 📦🚜
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Wheat Export Sales Surge 📈🌾
US wheat export sales soared last week, reaching 783,400 metric tons (29 million bushels), which was 83% higher than the previous four-week average. Panama was the largest buyer. Corn and soybean sales were also strong, with corn sales at 967,300 metric tons and soybean sales surpassing expectations at 751,700 metric tons. Mexico and China were the largest buyers for corn and soybeans, respectively. 🌽🌱
Trump Threatens 200% Tariff on European Wine 🍷💥
In retaliation for the EU's proposed 50% tariff on American whiskey, President Trump threatened a 200% tariff on European wine, champagne, and spirits. This trade spat comes after Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs. The EU has also planned tariffs on various US agricultural goods. Both Canada and the EU are significant buyers of US ethanol, and the situation could have a ripple effect on ethanol exports. 🍇🇪🇺
Brazil’s Soybean Production Forecast Raised 📊🌿
Brazil's soybean production forecast was increased to 167.4 million metric tons, up 1% from February's estimate, despite hot and dry conditions in the south. China's demand for Brazilian exports is expected to rise due to the ongoing US-China trade conflict. Meanwhile, Brazil’s total corn production forecast was slightly raised to 122.8 million metric tons, marking a 6.1% increase from last season. 🇧🇷🌾
Treasury Secretary Stresses Long-Term Economic Focus 📉💼
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasized the Trump administration’s focus on long-term growth, stating that short-term market volatility is not a concern. He assured that well-implemented policies would foster economic growth and job creation in the future. This comes amid the stock market's correction due to ongoing trade tensions. 📊📈
Drought Conditions Persist in US Corn Belt 🌾🌧
Scattered rainfall across the Corn Belt led to improvements in drought conditions in some areas, but others, particularly in western Illinois and western Minnesota, saw worsening conditions due to a lack of rain. The High Plains also experienced scattered rainfall, with conditions improving in Nebraska and Kansas. However, southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma are seeing worsening drought conditions. 🌾🌞
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EU Tariffs Could Impact U.S. Agricultural Exports 🌾
President Trump's 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum prompted the European Union to announce retaliatory tariffs on up to $28 billion worth of U.S. imports, including agricultural products like corn, soybeans, beef, and poultry. These tariffs could hurt the EU livestock industry, but the EU remains open to negotiations, with feed grains possibly playing a role in easing tensions. 🚜
Canadian Farmers Shifting Crops Due to Tariff Threats 🍁🌾
Canadian farmers are expected to plant more wheat (+2.6%) and less canola (-1.7%) this year. However, the tariff threats from the U.S. and China have led to uncertainty in planting intentions. China announced a 100% tariff on Canadian canola oil and meal, while Trump’s 25% tariff on Canadian goods will start in April, adding further pressure on the market. 🌱
Hedge Funds Cut Market Exposure Amid Trade and Economic Concerns 📉
Concerns about tariffs and a slowing economy prompted hedge funds to reduce their market exposure. The S&P 500 dropped nearly 9% from its peak, with a significant reduction in positions from industrial stocks. This sharp de-grossing follows fears of lower consumer spending, corporate profit declines, and a potential recession. 📉
U.S. Ethanol Stocks Remain High Amid Steady Production ⛽
U.S. ethanol stocks rose slightly to 27.4 million barrels, remaining at historically high levels. Despite a minor week-over-week drop in production, ethanol output remains above last year's levels. Gasoline demand showed a slight increase, with ethanol stocks still reflective of early COVID-era levels. ⛽📊
US Consumer Prices Rise at Slowest Pace in Four Months 📉💵
Inflation increased by 0.2% in February, slower than January’s 0.5% rise and below expectations. On an annual basis, inflation reached 2.8%, a decrease from January’s 3%. Despite this moderation, there are concerns that tariffs could drive prices higher in the coming months. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates as policymakers monitor inflation. 📊
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USDA Keeps Corn and Soybean Balance Sheets Unchanged 📊🌽
The USDA left its corn and soybean balance sheets unchanged, despite expectations for reductions in corn ending stocks due to strong export demand. Soybean stock estimates were also left the same, though some analysts had hoped for a slight decrease. The USDA refrained from making any changes as they await developments regarding US tariffs and global reactions. The wheat balance sheet saw a minor adjustment, with stock levels rising more than expected. Markets responded negatively, driven by lower-than-expected demand estimates for corn and increased wheat inventories. 🌾
President Trump Softens Tariff Threat Against Canada 🇨🇦📉
After a conversation between Ontario’s Premier and US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, President Trump decided to scale back his initial threat of doubling tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum. The pause on Ontario’s 25% electricity tax led to the reversal, with Trump sticking to a 25% tariff on Canadian metals instead. This came alongside Trump’s assertion that the US economy will experience a strong boom rather than a recession, despite ongoing tariff tensions. 💼
Soybean Production in Rio Grande do Sul Drops 📉
The soybean outlook in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil’s key soybean-producing state, has worsened. Local crop agency Emater reported a 30% reduction in the state’s crop estimate due to prolonged hot and dry conditions. However, Brazil’s national crop agency, Conab, still projects a record-high national soybean crop of 166mmt, despite these regional reductions. 🌱
Russian Missile Attack in Odesa Hits Grain Vessel ⚔️🌾
A Russian missile struck the Black Sea port of Odesa, damaging a grain vessel and killing four crew members and a port employee. The attack occurred while the vessel was loading wheat destined for Algeria. Both Russia and Ukraine have intensified their military actions, while the Trump administration continues to push for peace talks. 🚢💥
Stock Market Losses Extend Amid Tariff Uncertainty 📉💰
The stock market saw further losses on Tuesday, primarily due to concerns about President Trump’s tariff threats against Canada. The S&P 500 dropped 0.8%, entering correction territory, while the Dow Jones lost 1.1% and the Nasdaq fell by 0.2%. The volatility was fueled by shifting trade policy decisions and unsettled consumer confidence. Investors are awaiting the February CPI report, with projections indicating a slight decrease in inflation compared to January. 📉📊
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00:00 Export Inspections
3:03 Canola Market
5:20 Brazilian Soybean Harvest
7:19 USDA Report
8:59 Stock Market
10:50 Flash Sales
🌽 Strong US Corn Shipments, Mixed Results for Other Grains
US corn shipments surged last week, with USDA reporting 1.8 million metric tons (72 million bushels) shipped for the week ending March 6. This exceeded expectations, rising 35% from the prior week and 56% from the same period last year. Soybean shipments also increased, reaching 844,218 metric tons (31 million bushels), up 21% from the previous week and 7.5% year-over-year. Meanwhile, wheat shipments fell short of expectations at 216,173 metric tons (8 million bushels), marking a 45% decline from the prior week and a 55% drop compared to last year.
🇨🇦 Canola Market Hit by China’s Tariffs
Canola prices tumbled after China imposed a 100% tariff on canola oil and meal in retaliation for Canada’s tariffs on Chinese EVs. While Canadian farmers faced significant losses on Monday, prices stabilized somewhat today. Notably, canola seed exports remain unaffected for now. With 95% of canola exports heading to the US, Canadian producers are in a tough spot.
🇧🇷 Brazil’s Soybean Harvest Progressing, Weather Concerns Persist
Brazil’s soybean harvest is moving faster than last year, with 61% of the crop harvested as of last Thursday, compared to 55% at the same time in 2023. However, concerns remain over soybean yields in Rio Grande do Sul due to hot and dry conditions. Brazil’s second corn crop planting is nearly complete, with 92% finished—just shy of last year’s 93%.
📊 USDA Crop Production & WASDE Report Due Today
The USDA will release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE report at 11 AM CST. While the report is usually uneventful, traders will be watching for any adjustments related to trade policies. No major changes are anticipated for South American crops.
📉 Stock Market Slumps Amid Recession Fears
The stock market took a hit on Monday due to growing recession concerns. The Dow Jones fell 2.1%, the S&P 500 dropped 2.7%, and the Nasdaq plunged 4%, marking its worst session since September 2022. Tech stocks saw steep losses as investors worried about the economic impact of President Trump’s proposed tariffs, spending cuts, and geopolitical shifts. Adding to concerns, Trump refused to rule out a US recession over the weekend, calling the current economic situation a "transition period." Economic fears also led to a sharp decline in the 10-year Treasury yield, which dropped to 4.2% from its recent 4.8% peak.
🚀 USDA Reports Two Flash Sales
- 126,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of corn sold to Japan for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
- 195,000 metric tons (7 million bushels) of soybeans sold to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year. 🌎📦
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🇨🇳 China Imposes $2.6 Billion in Tariffs on Canada
China has placed $2.6 billion in tariffs on Canadian agricultural and food products, starting March 20. This includes a 100% levy on $1 billion worth of canola oil, oil cakes, and pea imports. 🌾🥜 Additionally, a 25% tariff will be applied to $1.6 billion worth of aquatic products and pork. 🐟🐖 The move is in retaliation for Canada's 2023 tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, steel, and aluminum. Interestingly, canola seeds were excluded, signaling China’s openness to negotiations. Some analysts see this as a warning to Canada, discouraging it from aligning too closely with U.S. trade policies. ⚖️🇨🇦
🇺🇸 Trump on Possible Recession & Tariffs
In a Fox News interview on Sunday, Trump declined to rule out a potential recession or higher inflation. 📉💰 He admitted that his tariffs might cause a transition period but emphasized their long-term benefits. Trump particularly highlighted the advantages for U.S. agriculture but provided no specific details. 🌾🇺🇸 He also reinforced his vision of a business-driven economy, rather than one reliant on government intervention. Meanwhile, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick dismissed recession concerns, instead predicting strong U.S. economic growth in the next two years. 📈💼
🌽 Funds Dump Corn & Soybean Holdings
"The Funds" cut their net-long positions in the corn market last week, according to CFTC's Commitment of Traders report released Friday. During the week ending March 4, large money managers were net sellers of 127k corn contracts, marking the biggest weekly selloff since February 2023. 📉🌽 Additionally, they sold off 48k soybean contracts and 18k contracts of SRW wheat. 🌾💰
🥚 DOJ Investigates Surging Egg Prices
The DOJ has launched an antitrust investigation into soaring egg prices, probing whether major producers colluded to inflate prices or restrict supply for higher profits. 📊⚖️ Egg prices have surged over 50% year-over-year, with consumers paying about $5 per dozen. 🥚💵 The egg industry blames the price hike on the worst bird flu outbreak in U.S. history, which has led to the destruction of 150+ million chickens, turkeys, and egg-laying hens. To address the crisis, the USDA has allocated $1 billion to fight bird flu and stabilize egg prices. 🏛️🐔
📉 US Job Growth Misses Expectations
The U.S. economy added 151,000 jobs in February, falling short of the 170,000 projection despite being higher than January’s revised 125,000. 👷📊 The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1% from 4%, while average hourly wages increased 0.3%, as expected. However, the annual wage growth of 4% was slightly below the expected 4.2%. Meanwhile, the number of part-time workers for economic reasons jumped to 4.9 million, the highest since October 2021. The Department of Government Efficiency also cut 5,000 federal jobs in January—the first decline in federal employment since June 2022. 🏛️📉
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Trade & Market Updates 🌍📉
President Trump has temporarily paused tariffs on Mexican imports under the USMCA agreement, exempting them from his recently imposed 25% tariff until April 2. The decision came after a conversation with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, who reported a 41% drop in fentanyl seizures at the border from January to February. Later, Trump extended the same exemption to Canadian imports under the trade deal. His shifting stance on tariffs has created market uncertainty, weakening consumer confidence and causing financial markets to plunge on Thursday—Dow -1%, S&P 500 -1.8%, Nasdaq -2.6%.📉
The U.S. is moving to impose docking fees on Chinese-linked vessels and pressuring allies to follow suit or risk retaliation. This effort aims to strengthen domestic shipbuilding and reduce China’s influence in global shipping. The draft order also includes tariffs on Chinese cargo-handling equipment. Last month, the U.S. Trade Representative's office recommended fees of up to $1.5 million on Chinese-built ships entering U.S. ports following an investigation into China’s dominance in global shipping. 🚢⚖️
Amid escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, Brazil 🇧🇷 is poised to increase its agricultural exports to China. Earlier this week, Trump raised tariffs on China by 10%, prompting China to retaliate with 15% tariffs on $21 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products, including meat and soybeans. Chinese importers may now favor tariff-free grains & protein from Brazil. A similar shift occurred during Trump's first term, when the U.S.-China trade war led to a major decline in U.S. soybean exports to China, a market share the U.S. never fully recovered. These new tariffs, though lower than before, may accelerate China’s move away from U.S. agricultural supplies. 🌾🇨🇳
U.S. corn exports increased last week, with 909,100 MT (36 million bushels) sold—up 15% from the previous week but down 32% vs. the 4-week average. Japan was the largest buyer. Soybean sales reached 352,900 MT (13 million bushels), down 14% weekly but stable vs. the 4-week average, with China as the top buyer. Wheat sales hit 338,700 MT (12 million bushels), up 26% weekly but down 25% vs. the 4-week average, with Mexico leading purchases. 📊🌽🫘
The USDA's latest drought monitor reveals worsening drought in Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri, with below-average snowfall in Minnesota raising concerns. Currently, 43% of the Corn Belt is experiencing drought, up from 32% in January. The High Plains remained mostly dry, with drought expanding in Kansas & Oklahoma. 🔥🌾
- Drought Impact by Crop:
- 🌽 Corn: 60%
- 🫘 Soybeans: 50%
- 🌾 Winter Wheat: 24% | Spring Wheat: 39%
- 🐄 Cattle: 38%
The USDA reported a flash sale of 20,000 MT of soybean oil on Thursday for delivery in 2024/2025, mirroring a similar sale on Tuesday. 🚀
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Temporary Tariff Exemption for Canadian and Mexican Auto Imports 🚗📈
On Wednesday, President Trump announced a one-month exemption from the 25% tariffs on automotive imports from Canada and Mexico. The pause, which responds to requests from automakers, has boosted stock markets. The exemption applies to manufacturers under the USMCA trade agreement. Despite this, Trump plans to continue using tariffs as leverage to address fentanyl smuggling concerns. Last year, automotive trade between the US, Canada, and Mexico totaled $345 billion, with a surplus for the US with Canada and a deficit with Mexico. 🇨🇦🇲🇽
Potential Agricultural Product Exemptions from Tariffs 🌾💡
Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins hinted at possible relief for agricultural sectors, suggesting that potash and fertilizer could be exempt from the recent tariffs on Canada and Mexico. This comes after Trump’s 25% tariffs on both countries and an additional 10% on China. Retaliatory tariffs have already been implemented by Canada and China, with Mexico expected to follow suit soon. 🌱
Risk of Export Cancellations Due to Tariffs 📉
US farmers are facing the risk of significant export cancellations due to rising tariffs and trade uncertainty. About 12 million tons of US crops, particularly corn and soybeans, could be at risk. Mexico, the largest importer of US corn, still has 7.8 million tons of corn unshipped. Additionally, soybean sales to China may be deferred or canceled, although the impact on soybeans is expected to be smaller. 🌽🌱
President Trump Urges Farmers to Remain Patient Amid Tariff Challenges 💼🌾
In his address to Congress, President Trump urged farmers to stay patient as tariffs take a toll on the agricultural industry. Despite some early gains in corn and soybean markets, retaliatory tariffs have caused significant losses. However, the initial portion of the $30 billion in federal farm aid is set to be distributed soon, offering some relief. 💸
Russia's Wheat Crop in Better Condition than Expected 🌾❄️
Russia's wheat crop is reported to be in better condition than initially expected, following a mild winter with warmer temperatures and reduced snowfall. In December, over 37% of Russia's winter crops were in poor condition, but the crop’s improved status has led to fewer production and export concerns. 🌾
US Dollar Drops Amid Tariff Concerns 💵📉
The US dollar dropped to a three-month low on Wednesday, following the imposition of tariffs on Mexico and Canada. This decline, which saw a 1% fall in the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, signals growing concerns over a potential global trade war and its effect on economic growth. The dollar’s status as a safe-haven currency is also under scrutiny due to shifting global political landscapes. 🌍
US Ethanol Stocks Near Record Levels 📊
Ethanol stocks in the US remain near historically high levels, with a slight decrease from the previous week but still up 4.8% compared to last year. Weekly ethanol output increased by 1.1%, with gasoline demand rising 5% for the week, though still lower than last year. Ethanol production continues to play a significant role in the US biofuel industry. ⛽
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US Corn and Soybean Futures Drop Amid Trade Tensions 🚜💥
Corn and soybean futures plummeted on Tuesday as trade tensions intensified. Corn futures hit their lowest levels of the year, while soybean prices fell below $10 per bushel. The drop was fueled by the US imposing steep tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, triggering swift retaliations from Ottawa and Beijing. There’s concern that rising trade tensions could push the global economy toward a recession, reducing demand for commodities. Corn prices have dropped 14% since mid-February, compounded by better crop prospects from South America. 📉
Potential Tariff Relief for Canada and Mexico 🤝
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has signaled that President Trump might offer tariff relief for Canada and Mexico, provided they comply with the USMCA trade agreement. While a full tariff removal is unlikely, adjustments may be on the table. Both sides are in talks, with a potential deal expected soon. Bipartisan pressure is mounting on Trump to reconsider these tariffs due to their potential impact on consumer prices and the agricultural sector. 🌾
Mexico to Announce Retaliatory Tariffs on Sunday 🇲🇽
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has confirmed that Mexico will impose retaliatory tariffs in response to Trump’s 25% tariffs on Mexican imports. The delay in the announcement reflects Mexico's efforts to avoid a trade war. Mexico's retaliatory measures are expected to hurt U.S. consumers and businesses, particularly since 80% of Mexico's exports go to the U.S., which accounted for over $800 billion in trade last year. 🌎
US Economic Activity Could Plunge Due to Trade War 📉
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model has revised its first-quarter growth forecast down to a 2.8% decline, a sharp shift from a previous estimate of 2.3% growth. This marks a drastic change from the 4% growth forecast just one month ago. These gloomy projections reflect growing concerns over the economic impact of the escalating trade war, and the US stock market has taken a hit, erasing post-inauguration gains. 📉
US Farmer Sentiment Rises Despite Trade War Concerns 🌾💡
US farmer sentiment increased in February, with Purdue University's Ag Economy Barometer Index rising to 152. This boost was driven by higher crop and livestock prices and anticipation of federal farm aid payments. Despite optimism about the future, trade policy remains a major concern, with nearly half of farmers believing a trade war is likely or very likely. 🌱
USDA Reports Flash Sales of Wheat and Soybean Oil 🌾💰
US exporters secured two flash sales on Tuesday: 130,000mt (5 million bushels) of white wheat to South Korea for the 2024/2025 marketing year, and 20,000mt of soybean oil to unknown destinations. These sales reflect continued demand for US agricultural products despite the ongoing trade tensions. 📦
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0:00 Trump Confirms Tariffs
1:28 China Tariffs US Soybean Imports
4:51 US Ag Import Tariffs?
8:31 Brazil / Argentina Update
9:47 India Wheat Problems
11:07 Grain Shipments
12:11 Flash Sale
Tariffs Take Effect Today: Canada, Mexico, and China Impacted 🌎
Tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico are now in place, with President Trump announcing a 25% tariff on both countries. These tariffs, along with a 10% increase in tariffs on Chinese imports, have sparked concerns, sending the stock market down. The S&P 500 dropped 1.8%, Nasdaq fell 2.6%, and Dow Jones slid 1.5%. The grain markets also saw selling pressure in response. 📉
China Announces Tariffs on US Agricultural Products 🌾
China has imposed 10-15% tariffs on a range of US agricultural products, including chicken, wheat, corn, cotton, soybeans, sorghum, pork, beef, fruits, vegetables, and dairy. The new tariffs will take effect on March 10th, further escalating trade tensions. Canada has also announced retaliatory tariffs, while Mexico has signaled patience without formal retaliation yet. 🐄🌽
Trump's Agricultural Tariffs Starting April 2nd 🍅
President Trump plans to implement tariffs on agricultural imports starting April 2nd as part of reciprocal tariffs targeting US trading partners. These tariffs could impact fruits, vegetables, and nuts, as well as used cooking oil from China for biofuel production. The USDA has forecasted a record agricultural trade deficit of $49 billion for the year. 🍋
Brazil’s Soybean Harvest Ahead of Last Year’s Pace 🇧🇷
Brazil's soybean harvest is slightly ahead of last year, with 50% of the crop harvested as of last Thursday. However, concerns persist in states like Rio Grande do Sul, where hot and dry conditions are causing crop losses. AgRural has reduced its soybean outlook for the season to 168.2mmt, down from 171mmt. 🌾
India Seeks Relief on Wheat Import Tax 🇮🇳
India’s wheat millers are pushing for the removal or reduction of a 40% import tax as the nation’s stockpiles have fallen to the lowest levels in almost 16 years. Reduced domestic production and the government’s release of reserves have contributed to the shortage, with hot and dry weather forecasts adding further concerns about this season’s crop. 🌾🔥
US Corn Shipments Strong Despite Tariff Concerns 🌽
US corn shipments were near the upper end of expectations last week, with 1.4mmt (53mil bushels) inspected for export. Soybean shipments were lower than expected, while wheat shipments showed a slight increase. Despite ongoing tariff threats, Mexico continues to be a top buyer of US corn this season. 🚢
Flash Sale of Corn to Mexico 💥
US exporters sold 114,000mt (4mil bushels) of corn to Mexico for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year. Mexico remains one of the top buyers of US corn, even amidst the threat of tariffs.
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China's Potential Retaliation Against US Agricultural Imports 🌾
China is reportedly considering targeting US agricultural imports, including soybeans, in response to President Trump’s 10% tariff threat. China has been the largest buyer of US soybeans, accounting for 47% of US export commitments. With most of this year's sales already shipped, unshipped sales and new crop sales could be at risk. 📉
$30 Billion in Federal Farm Assistance Coming Soon 💰
The USDA is preparing to release the first portion of the $30 billion in farm assistance, with the first $10 billion expected in the coming weeks. This support is designed to help offset poor markets and provide disaster relief. Secretary Brooke Rollins emphasized the urgency of delivering these funds efficiently, with a hard deadline of March 21st for payments. ⏳
Improved Crop Insurance for Corn 🌽, Higher Risk for Soybeans 🌱
The USDA's crop insurance for 2025 offers improved coverage for corn, with a spring price of $4.70 per bushel, up 4 cents from last year. Soybean coverage is more at risk, with a projected price drop to $10.54, down $1.01. Corn’s stronger coverage could lead to a significant increase in corn planting this season. 📊
Funds Trim Net-Long Position in Corn 🛑
CFTC data shows that large money managers reduced their net-long position in the corn market by 26k contracts last week. This selling trend is reflected in soybean and wheat markets as well, signaling a possible shift in market sentiment. The funds are now estimated to hold a net-long position of only 250-260k contracts in corn. 💹
China Tightens Grain Regulations 🇨🇳
China plans to strengthen regulations around grain purchases and storage to prevent volatility and ensure price stability. This move is aimed at further bolstering stockpiles of both corn and wheat, possibly through increased imports or purchases of domestic supplies. 📉
Russian Attack on Odesa Port ⚔️
A Russian missile strike on the Black Sea port of Odesa damaged a civilian vessel and port infrastructure, injuring workers. This follows President Trump’s recent criticisms of Ukrainian President Zelenskyy. The attack occurred just before the expected signing of a minerals agreement, which was ultimately not finalized. 🔥
Flash Sale of Soybean Oil 🛒
US exporters sold 20,000mt of soybean oil for delivery in 2024/2025, marking the first flash sale of soybean oil for 2025. This signals strong export interest in US soybean oil amidst global market uncertainty. 🛢️
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0:00 94mil Corn Acres?
7:34 New Tariff Update
9:34 Southwest Airlines Ditches SAF Plans
13:30 Drought Update
16:07 Export Sales
USDA Projects Record Corn Crop 🌽
The USDA anticipates a significant increase in corn acreage this season, with farmers expected to plant 94 million acres, up 3.8% from last year. Corn’s favorable prices are a key driver of this increase, and the total corn production is projected to hit a record 15.6 billion bushels. However, soybean acreage is expected to decline by 3.6%, with 84 million acres planted, resulting in the fourth-largest soybean crop on record at 4.4 billion bushels. Wheat acreage is expected to rise by 2%, reaching 47 million acres. 📊
Trump's Tariff Plan Escalates 💥
President Trump announced an additional 10% tariff on China and confirmed that the previously planned 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports will go into effect on March 4. These tariffs are aimed at addressing trade imbalances and the flow of fentanyl into the US. While the tariffs are set to hit a range of imports, including steel, it’s still unclear whether corn and soybeans will be directly impacted by retaliatory measures from Canada or Mexico. 🛑🌏
Southwest Airlines Scales Back on SAF 🌱✈️
Southwest Airlines is cutting back its commitment to sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). The airline laid off employees and terminated its newly-formed team focused on cleaner fuels. SAF, which is derived from feedstocks like corn husks, has become an important part of efforts to reduce climate pollution, but it represents less than 0.1% of Southwest's total jet fuel use. The airline had previously committed to using 10% SAF by 2030, but its decision signals challenges in reaching that goal. 🚫🌍
Drought Conditions Worsen Across US 🌞
The USDA's weekly drought monitor shows worsening conditions across much of the Corn Belt, with 40% of the region affected by drought. In particular, the percentage of US corn areas impacted by drought rose by 11%, while soybean areas saw a 10% increase in drought conditions. The High Plains also experienced drought expansion, notably in southern Kansas and western Oklahoma. 🌾💧
Corn Export Sales Fall Short 📉
US corn export sales were disappointing last week, coming in at 794,700mt (31 million bushels), down 45% from the previous week. This is the lowest sales number in weeks, with Mexico being the largest buyer. Similarly, wheat export sales were also below expectations, while soybean sales saw a slight uptick. These weak sales could impact the overall US agricultural market in the coming weeks. 📦🚫
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0:00 Intro
0:44 Ethanol Stocks SURGE
3:41 Wheat Selloff
5:11 Trump Tariff Update
7:34 USDA Egg Price Plan
9:33 Argentina Strike
10:50 Podcasts on YouTube
Ethanol Stocks Surge 📈
US ethanol stocks spiked to near-record levels last week, reaching 27.6 million barrels, a 5.2% increase on the week. This was the highest level seen since the early stages of the COVID lockdown, when driving was at a standstill. While weekly ethanol output dipped slightly, the data raises questions about accuracy, as the EIA has been known for "bad data" in the past. 🛢️💥
Wheat Futures Fall Amid Weather Forecasts 🌾
Wheat futures have fallen sharply in the past three sessions, with the May25 HRW wheat contract losing more than 23 cents. Much of the U.S. winter wheat country will receive rain, benefiting SRW areas in the Midwest, while HRW areas will see more scattered rainfall. Meanwhile, recent snowfall in Russian winter wheat areas has led to more optimism for their crop prospects. 🌧️❄️
Uncertainty Surrounding Tariffs 📊
The timing of President Trump's proposed 25% tariffs on Canadian, Mexican, and EU imports remains uncertain. Initially set to take effect on March 4, Trump now says the tariffs may begin on April 2. This has caused confusion, with a White House official suggesting that tariffs would be implemented next week but with no final decision yet. The EU is prepared for retaliatory tariffs. 💥🌍
USDA's $1B Plan to Combat Bird Flu 🐔💰
The USDA will allocate up to $1 billion to tackle the bird flu outbreak and help reduce egg prices. The funds will focus on improving biosecurity, assisting farmers, and developing vaccines. Over the past four years, egg prices have surged by 237%, reaching $4.95 per dozen. The USDA is also working to eliminate unnecessary regulations on egg producers. 🍳💸
Argentina Faces Oilseed Strike 🌱💥
Argentina's main oilseed union is threatening a nationwide strike after agribusiness giant Vicentin failed to pay wages. The company is facing legal challenges, and the court ruling may cause Vicentin to default, leading to a halt in operations. This could affect Argentina's already struggling oilseed industry. 🇦🇷⚠️
YouTube Dominates the Podcast Market 🎙️
More than one billion people tune into podcasts on YouTube every month, surpassing Spotify as the top podcast platform since October 2024. YouTube users streamed over 400 million hours of podcasts on living room devices alone. In response to competition from Spotify, YouTube is offering up to $300,000 to podcasters for video versions of their shows.
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0:00 Massie Hates Ethanol
4:34 Corn Holds Support
6:15 Russian Wheat Exports
8:58 Mex/US Negotiations
10:00 Gold Selloff
11:00 Stock Market Selloff
Massie's Controversial Comment on Ethanol 🛢️
U.S. Representative Thomas Massie posted a controversial comment on X, arguing that ethanol subsidies and mandates should be excluded from the Republican reconciliation plan. He claims that using corn for fuel increases food prices. As a farmer, Massie has a long history of advocating for reforms in agriculture, health, and food policy. This sparked a response from the Renewable Fuels Association. 🌽⚡
Corn Futures Bounce After Hitting Support 📉🔼
Corn futures bounced on Tuesday after hitting technical support near $4.88 per bushel. The May25 contract ended the day near $4.94, marking its third consecutive lower close. Traders are speculating about an increase in U.S. corn acreage ahead of the USDA Ag Outlook Forum data, which will be released tomorrow. The Prospective Plantings report comes out March 31st. 🌾📈
Russian Wheat Exports Revised Downward 🌾
Sovecon revised Russia’s wheat export forecast down to 42.2mmt, a slight decrease from the previous estimate of 42.8mmt. Analysts are concerned about limited snow cover leaving the crop vulnerable to frosts. However, the 2025/2026 export forecast was slightly increased. Russia continues to face challenges with its wheat exports this season. 🌍📉
Mexico-U.S. Trade Talks Heat Up 🇲🇽🤝🇺🇸
Mexican officials are meeting with U.S. representatives this week to discuss trade policy ahead of next week’s tariff deadline. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum stated a deal is likely to avoid a trade war, but retaliatory tariffs are on the table if an agreement isn't reached. Canada has also warned of tariffs on U.S. exports. The 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports are set to proceed as planned. 🌎💸
Gold Prices Drop After Hitting Record High 💰📉
Gold prices plunged by 1.4% on Tuesday, following an all-time high reached the previous day. The decline came amid uncertainty over President Trump’s proposed tariffs and weak economic data. Speculators reduced their net long positions in gold, signaling that its upward trend may be stalling. 📉💎
Stock Market Struggles 📉
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq experienced their fourth consecutive day of losses on Tuesday, with declines of about 3.8% and 4.5%, respectively. The drop was fueled by the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, which showed a third consecutive monthly decline. Concerns over President Trump’s tariffs and inflation fears have contributed to the market's struggles. 📉📊
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Grain Markets Fall Sharply 📉
The grain markets saw a significant decline on Monday, with the May25 corn contract losing 8 cents, soybean futures dropping by 10 cents, and wheat futures falling 10-12 cents per bushel. The selloff is likely linked to a shift in Argentina's weather, as key corn and soybean areas saw beneficial rainfall, with more forecasted across the country. 🌽🌧️
China's Pork Consumption Stalls 🐖
China's pork consumption has slowed due to oversupply and economic struggles, which has led to a surplus and suppressed prices. The government is considering overseeing hog slaughter and regulating production capacity, which could impact global soybean prices, as China is the largest importer of soybeans for livestock feed. 🐷📉
Brazil's Soybean Forecast Lowered 🌾
AgRural reduced its forecast for Brazil's soybean crop to 168.2mmt, down from 171mmt due to dry conditions in the southern region. While soybean harvest progress is on track, Brazil's second corn crop planting remains behind last year's pace, with only 64% planted as of last Thursday. 🇧🇷🌱
Tariffs on Canada and Mexico to Proceed 🇲🇽🇨🇦
President Trump confirmed that 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports will move forward, despite some uncertainty surrounding the details. The tariffs are aimed at securing stronger borders, and Trump has also warned of additional tariffs on steel and aluminum in March. ⚒️💵
Mexico Considers Tariffs on China 🇲🇽🇨🇳
Mexico is weighing the possibility of implementing tariffs on China while working to avoid the 25% tariff threat from the US. This comes amid ongoing negotiations on stronger action against migrants and fentanyl, which could trigger tariffs in March. 💣🔻
US Corn Shipments Decline 📉
US corn shipments declined last week, with only 1.1mmt (45mil bushels) inspected for export, down 30% from the previous week. Soybean shipments showed a slight increase, but wheat shipments were also lower than expected, down 22% from last year. 🚜📦
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Corn Futures Correct Lower 📉
CME Group corn futures saw a correction lower after reaching $5.04 last week, trading below $4.90 overnight. The strong rally may have made a correction overdue. Forecasts of rainfall in Argentina's corn country and discussions of increased US corn acreage have added selling pressure ahead of USDA's Ag Outlook Forum data later this week. 🌽🌧️
Brazil Soybean Harvest Progressing 🌱
Brazil's soybean harvest continues to mirror last year's pace, with 37.6% of the crop harvested compared to 38% last year. Conab forecasts Brazil's crop at 166 MMT, while the USDA estimates 169 MMT. Dry conditions are expected in some regions over the next two weeks, though rainfall in Argentina may ease row crop weakness. 🇧🇷🌾
Funds Increase Net-Long Position 💼
CFTC data shows "The Funds" increased their net-long position in corn and wheat markets last week. Large money managers bought 33k corn contracts, bringing the net long to 360k contracts—the second largest since April 2022. Wheat contracts also saw increased buying, while soybean contracts experienced net selling. 💰📊
US Corn Export Sales Decline 🌍
US corn export sales dropped last week to 1.5mmt (67mil bushels), down 12% from the previous week. However, sales remain strong, with Mexico being the largest buyer. Soybean sales also saw a decline, while wheat sales remained robust, rising 31% from the prior 4-week average. 🚜🌽
Stock Market Tumbles 📉
The stock market fell sharply on Friday, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 down by 1.7%, and the Nasdaq declining by 2.2%. The losses came amid concerns of slowing economic growth, persistent inflation, and geopolitical tensions. Disappointing economic data and consumer inflation expectations fueled the declines. 📊💥
Cattle on Feed Report Neutral to Slightly Bullish 🐄
The February 1st Cattle on Feed report showed 11.7 million head on feed, a slight decrease from pre-report estimates and 1% lower than last year. January placements were lower than expected, which may be viewed as slightly bullish by the market. The report suggests tighter cattle numbers for the coming months. 🐄📉
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Potential US-China Trade Deal 🌐
Despite rising tensions, President Trump hinted at the possibility of a new trade deal with China. This follows his announcement of a 10% tariff on Chinese imports, which prompted China to retaliate with tariffs on U.S. coal, LNG, oil, machinery, and vehicles. Although China failed to meet its Phase One commitments, Trump remains optimistic about renegotiating terms. 🤝📉
Corn Futures Near $5 💰
The Mar25 corn contract hovers near the $5 mark as option expiration approaches. A large amount of open interest at this strike price may influence market behavior today. Additionally, the Mar25-May25 spread reached record-wide levels, hinting at volatility ahead. 🌽💥
Concerns Over Canadian Tariffs and Fertilizer Costs 💸
Nutrien warns that President Trump's proposed 25% tariffs on Canadian imports could raise U.S. farmers' fertilizer costs, particularly for potash, which is mostly sourced from Canada. The price increase could exceed $100 per ton, affecting farmers after the spring planting season. 🌱⚠️
USDA Releases Frozen Funds 💵
The USDA is releasing $20 million in funds for approved contracts under programs like the Environmental Quality Incentive Program and Conservation Stewardship Program. This follows a review prompted by President Trump's executive order freezing funding. More funds are expected to be released soon. 💼🔓
Gold Prices Surge to Record High 🏆
Gold prices reached a new high of $2,954.69 per ounce, driven by fears of a global trade war amid President Trump's tariff plans. Some analysts predict gold could exceed $3,000, though a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal might limit further price increases. 🛑💰
Drought Conditions Improving Slightly 🌾
The USDA’s drought monitor shows slight improvements in drought conditions across the Corn Belt, particularly in Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois. However, challenges remain in the High Plains and some areas of the Midwest. 🌧️🌾
US Ethanol Production Holds Steady 🔋
Ethanol production was stable last week, with output holding steady compared to last year. Ethanol stocks saw a 2% increase, and gasoline demand showed a slight uptick year-over-year, despite a weekly dip in demand. ⛽📊
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Warm Temperatures in Argentina 🌡️
Argentina's key farming areas are set to experience temperatures as high as 95°F in the coming days. While the heat could stress crops, the Buenos Aires grains exchange forecasts beneficial rainfall early next week, with some areas receiving up to an inch of rain. The soybean crop is estimated at 49.6mmt, and the corn crop at 49mmt. 🌱🌞
Brazil's Soybean Crop Estimate Reduced 🌾
Agroconsult has revised Brazil's soybean crop estimate to 171.3mmt, down from 172.4mmt in January, mainly due to drought in southern Brazil. However, strong crops in other areas, like Mato Grosso, are expected to offset the losses. Despite the cut, Brazil's soybean crop is still expected to be 10% larger than last season. 🇧🇷🌾
Tensions Between Trump and Zelensky ⚡
Tensions have escalated between President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky. Trump recently labeled Zelensky a dictator and blamed Ukraine for the war with Russia. Zelensky rejected the claims, calling Trump’s statements Russian propaganda. Meanwhile, Russia launched a drone strike on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, causing power outages. ⚔️⚡
USDA Mistakenly Fired Bird Flu Response Workers 🦠
The USDA mistakenly laid off several employees working on the bird flu response, including veterinarians and health technicians. These staff members are now being rehired to continue their critical work. The bird flu outbreak has devastated flocks, causing egg prices to hit a record high. 🥚💸
Federal Reserve Maintains Cautious Approach on Rates 💵
The Federal Reserve plans to keep interest rates steady for now, awaiting further signs of inflation improvement. While one rate cut is expected this year, concerns remain over inflation, trade policies, and geopolitical tensions. The current benchmark rate sits at 4.25%-4.5%. 📉
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CME Corn Futures Surge 🚀
CME corn futures hit their best trade since October 2023, with the Mar25 contract breaking the $5 per bushel mark. US export sales remain a key factor, running 28% ahead of last year’s pace, surpassing USDA's projected 7% increase. "The funds" remain active buyers, holding a net long of 360k contracts. Wheat futures also rose, supported by Black Sea headlines and weather concerns in the US and Russia. Soybean futures closed higher as well. 🌽📈
DOGE Evaluates Agricultural Checkoff Programs 💡
The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is reviewing USDA’s 22 checkoff programs as part of a broader effort to reduce federal spending. This review could potentially lead to restructuring or regular voting by producers on whether these programs should continue. The checkoff programs, designed for marketing, research, and education, have faced criticism over transparency and fairness. 🧐
January Soybean Crush Data Released 📊
NOPA's January soybean crush data showed a slight decline from December’s all-time high but was still the second-largest on record for the month. The crush totaled 200.4 million bushels, up 7.9% from last year. Soybean oil stocks climbed to a six-month high of 1.27 billion pounds, though they fell short of trade estimates. 🌱
Trump’s Proposed Tariffs on Automobiles, Semiconductors, and Pharmaceuticals 💰
President Trump announced plans to implement 25% tariffs on automobile, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports, with an increase over the next year. The specifics are expected by April, but it's unclear whether the tariffs will target specific countries or all imports. This would have significant effects on U.S. vehicle imports, which make up about half of all vehicle sales in the country. 🚗💥
EU to Ban Pesticide-Treated Crop Imports 🚫
The European Union plans to implement a ban on imports of crops treated with pesticides that are prohibited in Europe for health and environmental reasons. This policy could impact U.S. soybean exports, as the EU is a key buyer of U.S. agricultural products. President Trump has expressed concern, suggesting that such restrictions would harm European markets. 🌍🌾
US Corn Shipments Exceed Expectations 📦
US corn shipments for the week ending February 13 totaled 1.6mmt (63 million bushels), up 19% from the prior week and 53% higher than last year. However, soybean and wheat shipments were below expectations, with soybean exports down 34% and wheat shipments down 56%. 🌾🚢
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0:00 Rollins Confirmed
2:05 DOGE and USDA
3:53 Corn and Wheat Rally
5:24 Black Sea Tensions
8:28 Year-Round E15?
10:00 The Funds
11:06 Brazil Update
12:26 US Corn is Competitive
Brooke Rollins Confirmed as US Secretary of Agriculture 🌾
Brooke Rollins was confirmed as US Secretary of Agriculture with a 72-28 vote. She plans to speed up disaster farm aid and address animal diseases. Rollins emphasized the importance of fairness in agriculture and the USDA's efforts to reduce costs, fraud, and waste. Thousands of probationary employees were fired last week as part of the USDA's efforts to improve efficiency. 🚜
Corn & Wheat Futures Soar 🌽🌾
Corn and wheat futures reached multi-month highs on Friday, with the Mar25 corn contract peaking just below $5.00 per bushel. HRW wheat also posted its highest trade since June, boosted by Black Sea concerns, weather worries in the US and Russia, and short-covering. Soybean futures closed higher but have trended lower since earlier this month. 📉
Ukraine and Europe Concerned About Exclusion from Peace Talks 🇺🇦
Ukraine and European officials are worried about being excluded from US-Russia peace talks. US officials are meeting with Russian leaders to discuss ending the war in Ukraine. While President Trump has mentioned including Ukrainian President Zelenskyy in the talks, the situation remains uncertain. A recent drone attack on Ukraine’s Chernobyl plant has added to tensions. ⚔️
E15 Sales Legislation Reintroduced 🛢️
Bipartisan legislation to allow year-round sales of E15 fuel was reintroduced in the House and Senate. The measure aims to streamline regulations and remove restrictions on E15 availability. The American Petroleum Institute supports the legislation, but new demand could be offset by exports. E15 fuel requires new infrastructure at gas stations. ⛽
Funds Trim Positions in Corn & Soybeans 💹
Large money managers trimmed their net-long positions in both the corn and soybean markets last week. Corn saw a reduction of 35k contracts, while soybean contracts saw a cut of 31k. The funds were net buyers of SRW wheat on the week. 📊
Brazil’s Soybean Harvest Lags 🌱
Brazil's soybean harvest continues to lag behind last year’s pace, with only 23% of the crop harvested so far, compared to 32% last year. The delay in harvest has affected the planting of Brazil's second corn crop, with some areas experiencing hot and dry weather. 🌾
US Corn Flash Sale 🚚
US exporters sold 100,000mt of corn to Colombia for the 2024/2025 marketing year. Corn sales for this marketing year are the second highest in the past decade, and US corn is expected to remain competitive on the global market through at least June. 🌍
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Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs Proposal 💸
President Trump plans to implement reciprocal tariffs aimed at eliminating trade imbalances, with tailored tariffs for each country to spark new trade negotiations. These tariffs, designed to offset the projected $1.9 trillion budget deficit, have raised concerns about potential retaliation and inflation. Critics worry that they could increase costs for consumers and manufacturers, while Trump believes they will lead to fairer trade deals in the long run. ⚖️
Corn Futures Hold Strong 🌽
Corn futures traded near their recent highs, with the Mar25 contract peaking in the $4.90s but still unable to break the $5 mark. The market shrugged off neutral supply/demand data from USDA on Tuesday. Speculators estimate that large money managers ("the funds") were net long around 350k contracts at Thursday’s close. 📉
Brazil’s Corn Production Outlook 📈
Brazil’s Conab raised its forecast for the nation’s corn production by 2.1%, now pegging it at 122mmt. However, corn planting is lagging behind last year’s pace, with only 5.3% of the crop planted so far. The agency also slightly reduced its soybean crop estimate due to dry conditions affecting the southern regions. 🌾
John Deere Faces Challenges 🚜
John Deere reported a 35% drop in first-quarter revenue, missing analysts' expectations. The company warned that President Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum could further harm profitability, as the price of industrial metals rises. Deere expects a decline in sales of large tractors and combines this year. 📉
Strong US Corn & Wheat Export Sales 🌍
US corn and wheat export sales showed strong numbers last week. Corn sales were up 12% compared to the previous week, with Japan as the largest buyer. Wheat sales were also strong, up 30%, with Mexico as the top buyer. Soybean sales, however, were disappointing, falling 52% from the previous week. 🌾
Drought Conditions in the US 🌞
Drought conditions across the Corn Belt remained mostly unchanged, with some expansion in central Missouri to west-central Ohio. Currently, 32% of the region is experiencing some level of drought, compared to 56% three months ago. The High Plains also saw some worsening conditions, particularly in parts of Nebraska and Kansas. 🌾
Wholesale Prices Rise Unexpectedly 📊
US wholesale prices rose 3.5% in January, higher than the expected 3.2% increase. The rise was driven by higher food and energy costs, which has diminished expectations for multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. Some traders now expect no rate cuts at all in 2024 due to the economic impact of tariffs. 💵
Today is THURSDAY! We all make mistakes!
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Soybean Futures Drop 🚜📉
Soybean futures fell sharply on Wednesday, with the Mar25 contract losing nearly 16 cents per bushel, hitting its lowest close since January 16th. Reports of large yields in Brazil, rainfall in Argentina, and a bearish global supply-demand situation have been weighing on prices. Analysts believe that large money managers were net sellers but likely remain net long. 📊
Argentina's Rain Brings Relief 🌧️
Heavy rains in key corn and soybean areas of Argentina on Wednesday brought much-needed moisture to drought-affected regions. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange noted that the rains reached areas that had missed previous precipitation, helping crops recover. USDA has lowered its projection for Argentina’s corn and soybean crops due to the dry conditions. 🌱
Trump and Putin Discuss Ukraine Conflict ☎️
President Trump and Russian President Putin discussed efforts to end the Ukraine war. The move could mark a significant shift in US policy. While some believe an end to the war would be bearish for wheat, the ongoing conflict has not supported prices for the past two years. 🌍
Trump Approves SAF Plant Expansion 🌱
The Trump administration has approved a loan for the expansion of a biofuel plant in Montana. This expansion is aimed at boosting U.S. energy dominance, aligning with Trump's goals despite concerns within the biofuel industry. 🔋
Inflation Higher Than Expected 💸
January's consumer inflation was hotter than anticipated, with a 3.0% rise compared to last year. Housing costs continue to drive inflation, with food and energy also showing increases. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep the key benchmark rate steady in March. 📉
Ethanol Production Declines 📉
US ethanol production fell last week, marking a -2.7% decline from the prior week and a modest drop from the previous year. With rising corn prices, ethanol production margins have trended lower, and the market is currently seeing negative margins. 🌽
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0:00 US Corn and Soybean Numbers
3:01 Global Corn Numbers in Question?
7:01 Argentina Rains
8:31 Mexico Tariff Talk
9:27 The Fed
USDA Keeps Corn and Soybean Estimates Unchanged 🌽
USDA left its corn and soybean balance sheets unchanged on Tuesday, causing the markets to dip. Many traders were hoping for increased demand projections for corn. Minor adjustments were made to the wheat balance sheet, with a 4 million bushel increase in demand. 📉
USDA Lowers Argentina's Corn & Soybean Crop Estimates 🌾
USDA has reduced its estimates for Argentina's corn and soybean crops due to hot and dry weather conditions. The corn crop is now projected at 50mmt, and soybeans at 49mmt. Recent rainfall helped but wasn't enough to fully recover the damage. 🌧️
Rain Brings Relief to Argentina's Crops 🌦️
Rainfall in Argentina this week has provided crucial moisture for the corn and soybean crops, which were struggling in the heat. With temperatures hitting around 104°F on Monday, the rain was a welcome relief, though more is needed for long-term recovery. ☔
Mexico Criticizes US Tariffs on Steel & Aluminum ⚖️
Mexico is set to discuss President Trump's 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports with the U.S. The tariffs are slated to take effect on March 12. Mexico imports more steel and aluminum from the U.S. than it exports, making these tariffs potentially harmful to both economies. 🇲🇽🔨
Federal Reserve Holds Off on Interest Rate Cuts 💵
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that the economy is stable and inflation still needs to cool, so there’s no rush to cut interest rates. The trade expects only two rate cuts this year, with inflation well above the Fed's 2% target. 📉
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USDA Report Due Today 📊
USDA's monthly Crop Production and WASDE report will be released today at 11am CST, with slight reductions expected in US corn and soybean ending stocks. Global estimates for corn and soybeans, as well as Brazil and Argentina crop forecasts, are also anticipated to be adjusted. This is the old crop report; the first official 25/26 balance sheets will come in May. 🌾📉
Brazil’s Soybean Harvest Lags 🌱
Brazil's soybean harvest is behind last year’s pace, with only 15% of the crop harvested compared to 23% last year. The delay could affect the planting of Brazil’s second corn crop, with planting in the south-central region at only 20%. 🚜
Brazil’s Inflation Hits 6% 📈
Brazil’s inflation forecast for the coming year has been revised up to nearly 6%, marking the 18th consecutive upward revision. High inflation is linked to elevated government spending and low unemployment. Analysts predict interest rates may reach 15.25% by June. 💸
Russia Cuts Wheat Forecast 🥖
Russian consulting group IKAR lowered its wheat production and export estimates due to freezing temperatures. Wheat exports are projected at 43mmt, down from a previous forecast of 43.5mmt. The decline reflects adverse weather and low stock levels. 🌾❄️
Trump’s Tariffs on Steel & Aluminum ⚒️
President Trump imposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, affecting all U.S. trading partners. These tariffs will impact various sectors, including automobiles and construction. Trump cites trade deficits and revenue generation as reasons for the move. 🇺🇸🔨
USDA Flash Sale of Corn 🌽
US exporters sold 365,000mt (14mil bushels) of corn to Mexico for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year. This brings accumulated corn sales up by 28% compared to last year. 🌽🇲🇽
Record Number of H-2A Visas for South African Workers 🌍
The U.S. issued a record number of H-2A visas to South African farm workers last year, with 15,159 permits granted. This marks a 19% increase from the previous year. Mexico remains the top recipient of these visas. 🛂
Strong US Corn Shipments 🚢
US corn exports were strong last week, with 1.3mmt (53mil bushels) inspected for export, up 49% from the previous year. Wheat shipments exceeded expectations, rising by 112%. However, soybean shipments were down 22% from the same week last year. 📦
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US Farmer Income Soars With Government Aid 🌾💰
US net farm income is projected to rise by 30% this year, reaching $180.1 billion. This increase is largely driven by government disaster payments, which will contribute over 80% of the growth. While total crop receipts are expected to decline by 2.3%, the overall farm income is still higher than the 20-year average. However, it remains 8.9% lower than the record earnings of 2022. 📉
Trump Announces 25% Tariffs on Steel & Aluminum 🛠️📈
President Trump declared a 25% tariff on all imports of steel and aluminum, with reciprocal tariffs set to take effect this week. This follows recent announcements of a temporary suspension of universal tariffs on Canada and Mexico. The steel and aluminum tariffs target major suppliers like Canada, China, and Mexico. 💥
USDA Freezes Funding for Conservation Programs 🌱💵
The USDA has paused funding for agricultural conservation programs as part of the Trump administration's review of federal spending. Although farmer aid is supposed to remain unaffected, this freeze impacts conservation initiatives tied to the Inflation Reduction Act. Legal challenges are ongoing regarding the funding freeze. ⚖️
Rain Brings Relief to Argentina’s Soybean Crop 🌧️🌱
Rainfall across Argentina last week offered much-needed relief to the soybean crop. The Rosario grains exchange lowered the percentage of early-planted soybeans in poor condition from 50% to 30%. However, some areas in northeastern Argentina still need rain. 🌍
Funds Boost Corn Position 🌽📈
Large money managers increased their net-long position in corn futures last week. The net long of 362k contracts is the highest since April 2022, indicating strong bullish sentiment in the corn market. The funds were also net buyers of SRW wheat. 🌾
USDA Crop Production & WASDE Report Coming Soon 📊🌾
The USDA will release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports on Tuesday, with traders expecting small revisions to US corn and soybean ending stocks, as well as global crop estimates. The official 2025/2026 balance sheets will be released later in May. 🗓️
Trump Discusses Peace Talks with Putin 🇷🇺🤝🇺🇸
President Trump and Vladimir Putin have discussed ending the war between Russia and Ukraine. Trump claims Putin is interested in stopping the conflict, and a meeting with Ukrainian President Zelenskiy is expected to occur soon to discuss efforts for peace. 🕊️
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Wheat Futures Surge Amid Cold Weather Concerns 🌾❄️
All three classes of US wheat futures hit multi-month highs overnight, driven by concerns over potential crop damage from cold weather in the Black Sea region. The rise was also fueled by short covering by funds. Corn and soybean futures saw gains as well, supported by President Trump’s temporary suspension of tariffs on Canada and Mexico. China’s mild counter-tariffs, excluding crops, also provided market support. 🌍
Greer Defends Trump's Trade Policies 💼📉
Trump's nominee for US trade representative, Jamieson Greer, defended the administration’s tariff policies during his confirmation hearing. Greer emphasized the need to reform international trade and expand markets for US farmers, while assessing whether trade agreements with China, Mexico, and Canada were upheld. Some senators expressed concerns about tariffs potentially raising costs for farmers. ⚖️
Mexico Eases GMO Corn Import Restrictions 🌽🇲🇽
Mexico has lifted its restrictions on genetically modified (GMO) corn imports, now limiting restrictions only to human consumption. This move follows a ruling by a USMCA panel that determined that the prior restrictions violated the trade agreement. The decision alleviates concerns among US farmers, as Mexico has been a major importer of US GMO corn for livestock feed and industrial use. 🌱
Strong US Corn Export Sales 🌽📦
US corn export sales remained robust last week, totaling 1.5 million metric tons (58 million bushels). This was a 9% increase from the previous week and a 32% rise compared to the prior 4-week average. Mexico was the largest buyer. In contrast, soybean sales were weaker, falling by 12% from the previous week, with China being the largest buyer. 🌍
US Drought Conditions Update 🌾🌧️
USDA’s weekly drought monitor showed scattered rainfall across the Corn Belt, leading to slight improvements in drought conditions in western Missouri, eastern Iowa, and northwest Illinois. However, drought conditions worsened in northwest Indiana, and minimal precipitation was recorded in the High Plains. The drought remains widespread in areas like corn and soybean production. 🌾
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0:00 Argentina Rainfall
2:00 China WTO Complaint
3:06 China Wheat Situation
6:15 End to Russia/Ukraine War?
7:41 US Dollar and Brazil Currency
9:11 Bunge Profits Drop
9:59 Ethanol Production
10:54 Corn Flash to Mexico
Rainfall Brings Relief to Argentina's Soybean Crop 🌧️🌱
Argentina’s key farming areas received beneficial rainfall this week, especially helping the soybean crop that had been struggling with hot, dry conditions. Some areas saw more than 3 inches of rain. Continued rainfall will be needed to prevent further crop losses. 🌾
China Files WTO Complaint Against US Tariffs ⚖️🇨🇳
China has filed a complaint with the WTO over Trump's new 10% tariffs, claiming they are based on unfounded allegations. This move follows China's retaliation with its own tariffs on US imports, including energy products and agricultural equipment. 🛢️⚙️
China Delays Wheat Imports Due to Ample Domestic Supply 🌾🇨🇳
China has postponed imports of 600,000mt of wheat due to an abundant domestic supply from last year’s bumper crop. As domestic wheat prices have dropped, China has redirected imports, potentially adding pressure to the already struggling wheat market. ⏳
Trump Administration to Reveal Ukraine Peace Plan 🕊️🇺🇦
The Trump administration is expected to unveil a plan to end the war in Ukraine next week. The plan proposes security guarantees for Ukraine and access to its rare earth minerals in exchange for US support. Long-term, Ukraine hopes for NATO membership. 🤝
US Dollar Declines Amid Trade War Uncertainty 💵
The US dollar fell 0.4% yesterday as concerns about a trade war subsided. The shift came after Trump's tariff delay on Canada and Mexico and weaker-than-expected US job data, which increased speculation about potential interest rate cuts. 📉
Bunge's Profits Expected to Decline 📉
Bunge anticipates a profit drop to the lowest level since 2019 due to tariff concerns, abundant soybean supplies, and uncertainty over renewable diesel tax credits. The news caused a nearly 7% drop in the company’s shares, but its acquisition of Viterra could help mitigate trade disruptions. 📊
US Ethanol Production Surges 🚗🌾
US ethanol production reached 1.1 million barrels per day last week, up 9.6% from the previous week and 12% year-over-year. Ethanol stocks also rose, and gasoline demand was up slightly compared to last year. ⛽
Flash Sale of Corn to Mexico 🌽🇲🇽
US exporters sold 330,000mt of corn to Mexico for the 2025/2026 marketing year, shortly after Mexico agreed to a temporary suspension of tariffs with President Trump. 🌽
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0:00 19k Subs!
0:44 Another US/China Trade Deal?
3:38 Argentina Crop Problems
5:12 Wheat Exports and Russia
8:37 Farmer Sentiment Improves
9:45 More ADM Problems
10:46 Stock Market Bounces
11:51 Corn Flash
China May Revive Phase One Trade Deal with Trump 🇨🇳🤝🇺🇸
China could be looking to renegotiate the Phase One trade deal from 2020, which aimed to increase purchases of US agricultural products like corn and soybeans. Trump’s recent 10% tariff on Chinese imports has sparked speculation about a new deal, encouraging buying in the markets. China is expected to fulfill its commitment to increase US agricultural purchases if an agreement is reached. 🌽
Argentina’s Crop Outlook Turns Bleaker 🌾☀️
Drought conditions in Argentina have caused concerns about corn and soybean crop yields. Forecasts have been reduced, with yields potentially falling to 40mmt if dry weather persists. Farmers remain hopeful for rain in the coming weeks, but the extent and timing are uncertain. 🌧️
Sovecon Raises Russia’s Wheat Export Outlook 🌾🇷🇺
Sovecon has increased its forecast for Russia's wheat exports to 38.3mmt, a 5.2% rise from its previous estimate. Despite a mixed outlook on crop conditions, Russia's winter grains are performing better than expected after tough weather last year. ❄️
US Farmer Sentiment Improves Despite Trade Concerns 🚜📈
US farmer sentiment improved in January, with the Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index rising to 141. While concerns about trade wars remain, 42% of farmers believe trade policy will be crucial to their operations over the next five years. 🌱
ADM Plans to Cut Costs After Profit Decline 💼📉
Agricultural giant ADM is planning to cut costs by $750 million over the next three to five years, including job cuts and selling off underperforming sectors. This comes after a poor fourth-quarter profit and a financial scandal. 💔
Stock Market Recovers After Tariff Suspension 📈💵
The stock market bounced back, with the Dow Jones up 0.3%, the S&P 500 increasing 0.7%, and the Nasdaq rising 1.4%. The market was buoyed by Trump’s suspension of tariffs on Canada and Mexico, along with a strong performance from Palantir. 📊
USDA Reports Flash Sale of Corn 🌽🚢
US exporters sold 132,000mt of corn to South Korea, continuing strong export sales. Year-to-date corn sales are up 28% compared to last year. 🚜
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Trump Temporarily Suspends Tariffs on Mexico 🇲🇽💼
President Trump agreed to delay the planned 25% tariffs on Mexico for 30 days. 🇺🇸🤝🇲🇽 In return, Mexico committed to sending 10,000 National Guard officers to the border to curb fentanyl and migrant flows. As a result, the Mexican peso strengthened, and corn futures recovered, easing concerns over unshipped US corn sales to Mexico. 🌽💰
Trump Suspends Tariffs on Canadian Imports 🇨🇦💼
President Trump also delayed tariffs on Canadian imports for 30 days after negotiations with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Canada agreed to spend $1.3 billion to strengthen its border, appoint a fentanyl czar, and list Mexican cartels as terrorist groups. 📈
China Announces Retaliatory Tariffs 🇨🇳⚔️
China imposed retaliatory tariffs on some US imports, including a 15% tariff on $5 billion worth of energy imports like oil and natural gas. ⛽ A 10% tariff on agricultural equipment was also announced. China refrained from targeting soybeans, but tensions remain. ⚖️
Brazilian Real Climbs Against the Dollar 💰📈
The Brazilian real rose for the 11th consecutive day, hitting its highest level since November, following Trump’s tariff suspension on Mexico. 📊 It has gained roughly 6% year-to-date, reflecting optimism about Brazil’s economic outlook.
Brazil’s Soybean Crop Estimates Vary 🌱
Brazil’s soybean crop estimates differ among analysts. Celeres raised its forecast to 174mmt due to favorable weather, while StoneX cut its estimate to 170.9mmt due to dry conditions. 🌾 AgRural reported that Brazil's soybean harvest is 9% complete, trailing behind last year's pace. 📉
US Corn Shipments Surge 🌽🚢
US corn exports remained strong, with 1.3mmt (49 million bushels) inspected for export, up 94% from last year. 🌾 Soybean exports were also up by 37% compared to the prior week. However, wheat shipments declined. 📉
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Trump Imposes Tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China 💥
President Trump followed through on his threat, imposing 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, and a 10% tariff on China, effective Tuesday. 🌎 These tariffs are set to stay until illegal immigration and fentanyl influx stop. Additional tariffs on steel, aluminum, chips, and pharmaceuticals are expected. Traders seem concerned, as grain markets are trading lower despite the news being telegraphed. 📉
Retaliation Plans from Mexico and Canada 🇲🇽🇨🇦
Both Canada and Mexico are preparing counter-tariffs. Canada plans 25% tariffs on $106 billion worth of U.S. goods, starting with a quarter on Tuesday. Mexico is considering retaliatory tariffs, though specifics aren't out yet. China, facing a 10% tariff, will take legal action via the WTO. 🌾 Corn and soybean retaliation remains a possibility. 🌽
Funds Increase Net-Long Position in Corn and Soybeans 📊
Large money managers increased their net-long position in both corn and soybeans last week, with the net-long corn position hitting a record high. 📈 The funds were net buyers of 22k corn contracts and 7k soybean contracts, signaling optimism about crop potential despite market volatility. 🐂
Argentina's Soybean Crop Outlook Deteriorates 🌱
Argentina’s soybean crop may be worse than expected, with satellite imagery estimating it at just 45mmt, much lower than earlier projections. 🌧️ Harvesting is behind, and rain forecasted for the coming days is expected to be light, offering little relief. 🌾
U.S. Resumes Mexican Cattle Imports Amid Tight Supply 🐄
The U.S. is set to resume Mexican cattle imports after a suspension due to the New World screwworm. The tight cattle supply has driven U.S. cattle prices to record highs, further reinforced by USDA's report showing the smallest U.S. cattle herd since 1951. 📉
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Trump's Tariff Plans Unfold 💥
President Trump plans to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports starting tomorrow, citing issues like fentanyl trafficking and trade deficits. 🌎 The tariffs could increase over time, with China also being targeted. The situation remains fluid, with Trump aides seeking last-minute deals. ⚖️
Mexico Prepares Retaliation 🇲🇽
Mexico is ready to retaliate with tariffs of up to 20% on U.S. products like produce, cheese, pork, and bourbon. 🍋🧀 The proposed 25% tariff on Mexican imports could cost 400,000 U.S. jobs, but for now, Mexican corn purchases remain unaffected. 🌽
Brazil's Corn Planting Delays Impact Supply 🌾
Delayed planting in Brazil’s top corn-producing state, Mato Grosso, could further restrict global corn supply. 🌧️ Despite the delay, planting progress is expected to pick up this week, with two-thirds of Brazil's second corn crop coming from Mato Grosso and Paraná. 📅
US Corn Export Sales Strong 🚢
US corn export sales were solid last week, with Japan leading the purchases. 🌍 Soybean sales fell short of expectations, while wheat exports surged. 🌾
US Drought Conditions Update 🌵
Drought conditions in the Corn Belt remained steady last week, with expansion in western Missouri. 🌾 29% of the region is experiencing drought, with soybeans and spring wheat also impacted. 🌱
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0:00 Wednesday's Rally
4:00 Mexico Tariff Comments
6:41 Lutnick Comments
7:56 Russia Wheat Situation
9:02 Fed Holds Rates Steady
Corn and Soybean Futures Surge 🌾
Corn and soybean futures saw a strong rally on Wednesday, with corn reaching a 7-month high at $4.97. 🌽 The tightening U.S. supply-demand situation continues to support these markets, and wheat futures also gained. 📈
Mexico Prepared for Potential Tariffs 🇲🇽
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum isn’t expecting immediate tariffs but has a plan in place if they are implemented. 🚨 A potential trade war could impact the $800 billion annual trade between the U.S. and Mexico, with Mexico being the top buyer of U.S. corn this year. 🌽
Trump’s Commerce Secretary on Tariffs 💼
President Trump's nominee for Commerce Secretary emphasized that tariffs could be avoided if Mexico and Canada curb fentanyl flows. He also discussed potential restrictions on China’s access to technology due to recent AI developments. ⚖️
Russian Grain Exports Expected to Decline 🌾
Russia’s grain exports are projected to drop significantly this season, falling to 57mmt from 72mmt last year, due to extreme weather conditions. 🌧️ Despite this, 82% of the country's grain crop is reportedly in good condition. 🌾
Fed Holds Interest Rates Steady 💵
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady, noting that inflation remains high and the job market is solid. President Trump criticized the Fed for allowing inflation to rise and promised to stabilize prices through energy production and better trade deals. 📉
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Federal Funding Freeze Temporarily Blocked
A federal judge has temporarily blocked President Trump’s funding freeze, which would affect various programs like the Inflation Reduction Act. 🛑 Programs supporting Americans, like Medicare and food stamps, are safe, but the freeze may impact the 45Z tax credit and biofuels. 💰
Corn Futures Near Recent Highs
Corn futures are just below recent highs, with tightening U.S. supply and strong demand driving prices. 🌽 Farmers in Brazil have planted only a small portion of their second corn crop. 📈
Tariff Threats Boost Dollar
The U.S. dollar gained strength following renewed tariff threats from President Trump. 💵 Trump is considering tariffs on imports like computer chips and steel, which is pushing the dollar higher. 📊
Contaminated Soybean Meal Found in Brazil
Sand was discovered in Brazilian soybean meal at the Port of Paranaguá, leading to rejections of contaminated shipments. 🌾 This comes as China halts shipments from five Brazilian companies. 🚫
Flash Sale of U.S. Corn to South Korea
U.S. corn exports saw a strong flash sale to South Korea, with competitive pricing likely to boost further sales. 🌽 Global demand for U.S. corn remains strong as Brazil’s larger crop is still in the works. 🌍
Federal Reserve Expected to Hold Rates
The Federal Reserve is anticipated to keep interest rates unchanged today, despite Trump’s calls for rate cuts. 💵 The decision comes as the Fed continues to assess inflation trends amid Trump’s economic policies. 📉
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Tariff Uncertainty Continues
President Trump’s tariff plans remain unclear, with reports suggesting a gradual increase starting at 2.5%. 🌎 Meanwhile, Canada is preparing for potential tariffs on U.S. goods, with some politicians pushing for a united global response. 🇨🇦
Brazil’s Soybean Crop Update
Brazil's soybean crop forecast has been slightly reduced, and the slow harvest is affecting the second corn crop. 🌱
Russian Wheat Prices Rise
Russian wheat prices rose due to a limited supply. 🌾
U.S. Export Trends
U.S. corn exports showed strength last week, but soybean shipments fell short of expectations. 🌽 Soybean shipments were down 26%, while wheat exports exceeded expectations. 📉
JBS Enters the Egg Market
JBS has entered the egg market, acquiring a stake in South America's top producer. 🥚
U.S. Corn Exports to Mexico
The U.S. exported corn to Mexico, continuing trade despite tariff threats. 🌽
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🟢 Key Updates on US Markets and Global Trade 💥
US Tariff Tensions: Colombia and Canada Respond
President Donald Trump announced the potential for a 25% tariff on Colombian imports after the country refused to allow US planes carrying deported migrants to land. In response, Colombia retaliated with its own tariffs on US goods. However, the situation calmed when Colombia agreed to accept the deportees. Colombia has already accounted for 9.7% of US corn export sales this year. Similar tariff threats are looming for Mexico and Canada, with 308 million bushels of unshipped corn from Mexico on the line.
Increased Net-Long Positions in Corn & Soybean Markets
CFTC data from January 21 revealed that funds increased their net-long position in corn to 322k contracts, the highest since May 2022. Additionally, funds were net buyers of 73k contracts of soybeans, marking the largest position since November 2023. This bullish sentiment indicates strong demand for US crops, despite global market challenges.
Argentina’s Dry Conditions Impacting Corn & Soybean Yields
Argentina’s crop outlook is being negatively impacted by hot and dry weather. The USDA’s attaché office has lowered its corn forecast to 49 million metric tons (mmt), down from the 51mmt forecast. Corn exports are now expected to total 34mmt, lower than the 36mmt forecasted by USDA. Argentina's soybean crop is also facing yield reduction due to the dry conditions.
China Imposes Temporary Soybean Import Restrictions
China has imposed restrictions on soybean imports from five Brazilian exporters after they failed to meet plant health standards. Although the volume affected is small, the disruption could have broader implications for global soybean trade, particularly in the face of rising tensions with the US. Brazil’s soybean exports to China remain strong, while US soybean sales are being overshadowed.
Wheat Crop Damage from Extreme Cold
The US winter wheat crop is suffering from an Arctic blast, with 15% of the crop potentially killed by bitterly cold temperatures. The Commodity Weather Group forecasts a 6.7% reduction in HRW wheat production and a 3.5% decline in SRW wheat.
US Export Sales Show Strength Despite Global Setbacks
US corn exports surged to 1.7mmt (65 million bushels), marking a 62% increase compared to the previous week. Soybean exports, however, were weaker at 973,145mt (36 million bushels), a 28% drop from the previous week. Wheat exports also disappointed at 164,800mt (6 million bushels), falling far below expectations.
Global Markets React to Tariff Uncertainty & Economic Moves
US stock markets experienced sharp declines, with the Nasdaq down over 4%, driven by fears surrounding President Trump’s tariffs. The US Dollar weakened, while global equity markets, especially in Japan and Mexico, surged as they benefitted from trade optimism.
Cattle Report Reveals Bullish Trends in Beef Market
The Cattle on Feed Report showed a 1% decline in cattle numbers as of January 1 compared to last year. Placements in December were below expectations, signaling a bullish outlook for the beef market. The lighter placements combined with increased marketings suggest reduced cattle numbers, likely leading to tighter beef supplies.
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🌱🌽 Argentina’s soybean and corn crop forecasts were cut due to hot and dry weather. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange now predicts the soybean crop will reach 49.6 million metric tons (down 1mmt) and the corn crop 49 million metric tons (also down 1mmt). While some rain is expected in soybean areas soon 🌧️, the intense heat 🌞 will likely limit its benefits.
🇦🇷 To help farmers struggling with drought and low crop prices, Argentina is temporarily reducing export taxes on soybeans, soybean products, corn, and wheat 🌾. The tax cuts, fulfilling a campaign promise by President Javier Milei, will start Monday and run through June. Farmers have been facing a rainfall deficit since December, making these changes critical.
🛢️ Brooke Rollins, President Trump’s nominee for Agriculture Secretary, promised to support all fuel types, including biofuels. During her hearing, she distanced herself from her previous employer, who opposed biofuels, and committed to following Trump’s energy dominance plan. Rollins also plans to work on 45Z tax credit guidance with Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent. Meanwhile, Trump announced plans to declare a national energy emergency, which may allow year-round sales of E15 fuel.
🚜 Rollins also said she might consider direct payments to farmers hurt by tariffs, similar to Trump’s earlier approach. During his first term, the administration spent billions to offset losses from retaliatory tariffs on US soybeans. Some senators criticized this method, saying farmers prefer to sell their products rather than rely on government aid. Rollins also aims to reduce the $42 billion agricultural trade deficit and expand trade markets, though she had no response when asked about the impact of mass deportations on farmworkers.
🍶 US ethanol production increased last week, hitting 1.1 million barrels per day, up 4.3% from the same time last year. Ethanol stocks rose to 25.9 million barrels, a 3.5% increase from the previous week. Gasoline demand, however, dropped by 2.9% compared to the week before.
🌾 The USDA’s latest drought report shows little change in conditions. The Corn Belt saw limited rain, with slight improvements in northern Indiana and Illinois. The High Plains remained dry, and cold air from Canada brought temperatures 12–15°F below normal.
Drought Impact:
- 🌽 Corn: 42%
- 🌱 Soybeans: 35%
- 🌾 Winter Wheat: 23%
- 🌾 Spring Wheat: 45%
- 🐄 Cattle: 33%
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A bipartisan group of senators has reintroduced the Farm to Fly Act to speed up the production of SAF. The legislation would clarify SAF eligibility in the USDA's current bioenergy programs and expand markets for crops used in SAF production. It would also clarify the federal definition of SAF for USDA purposes and promote more collaboration on aviation biofuels within the USDA. Six senators from the Midwest reintroduced the bill. Agriculture, aviation, and energy groups have all expressed support for the legislation. The reintroduction came one day after President Donald Trump signed an executive order freezing any new federal rules for 60 days, including the 45Z tax credit guidance.
USDA reported a flash sale of corn on Wednesday. US exporters sold 136,000mt (5mil bushels) of corn to unknown destinations for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year. Current marketing year corn sales are the third best in the last ten years.
China has suspended Brazilian soybean shipments from five companies. China's General Administration of Customs halted the shipments after finding pesticides and pests during a routine inspection. Authorities did not release the number of cargoes or the volume of soybeans affected by the suspension. However, the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture reported that the ban is not expected to affect Brazil's overall soybean exports to China. The ministry is expected to provide China with the necessary information to lift the temporary suspensions. The firms included in the ban are some of the largest soybean suppliers to China.
Weather forecasts for southern Brazil and Argentina have turned slightly wetter. Rains are slated to return to southern Brazil and northern Argentina by Sunday. Southern Brazil, in particular, should see widespread coverage during the next 5 days. The 5-10 day period introduces slightly better rainfall for key Argentina soybean areas. This morning's extended GFS model, however, is again drier for much of Argentina's soybean country. Despite the rain, parts of Argentina, including Buenos Aires, may remain drier than normal.
President Donald Trump is pressuring Russia to negotiate an end to the war with Ukraine. On Wednesday, Trump said that Russia needs to make a deal to end the war, or the US will impose tariffs, higher taxes, and sanctions on Russian imports. The same would apply to other countries providing financial support to Russia. It's unclear which specific Russian goods would be targeted, but Russia's main oil producers could be included. Tariffs, however, won't be overly impactful given that the US only imported about $4.6 billion worth of Russian goods in 2023, accounting for only 0.2% of total imports.
President Donald Trump's nominee for Agriculture Secretary previously opposed ethanol and farm subsidies. Brooke Rollins served as president and CEO of the Texas Public Policy Foundation from 2003 to 2018. During that time, the organization claimed that government support for ethanol led to an increase in emissions and a rise in food and fuel prices. In 2016, while Rollins remained in her position with the nonprofit, the group advocated for the elimination of farm subsidies. Despite Rollins' controversial history on policies affecting farmers, more than 400 state and national agricultural groups endorsed her to lead the USDA.
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0:00 Rumors and China
3:27 Corn/Soybean Acreage Estimates
6:47 China Tariffs on Feb 1st?
8:24 South America Update
10:25 Strong Corn Shipments
🟢 US Corn Market Shows Positive Signs Amid China Rumors & Export Surge 🌽
There were rumors on Tuesday regarding potential Chinese purchases of US corn, following a Monday announcement from the Chinese government indicating plans to increase the scale of corn purchases and expand grain storage. Despite China’s imports of US corn being near zero this year, the possibility of increased demand has positively impacted the corn market, with spot-month corn futures reaching their best levels since October 2023. 📈🌾
📊 S&P Global Adjusts US Corn and Soybean Acreage Estimates 🌱
S&P Global Commodity Insights has increased its forecast for US corn acreage to 93.5 million acres, a 700,000-acre increase from its previous estimate. This is a 2.9 million-acre increase compared to 2024. However, soybean acreage is expected to decrease by 700,000 acres, with the forecast now at 83.3 million acres. This aligns with USDA projections of 82.9 million acres for corn and 86.1 million acres for soybeans. 🌽
🚨 Trump Considers Tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada 💼
President Donald Trump is weighing a 10% tariff on China as early as February 1, citing China’s role in the fentanyl trade. Trump is also considering a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, with the aim of curbing illegal immigration and addressing trade concerns. These potential tariffs come on the heels of earlier proposals for a 60% tariff on Chinese goods. Traders are reacting to these ongoing developments, as tariffs could impact global trade and affect US exports. 💥
🇧🇷 Brazil’s Soybean Crop Outlook Raised 🚜
The Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (ABIOVE) has raised its forecast for Brazil’s soybean crop to 171.7 million metric tons (mmt), up from 168.7mmt. Exports are expected to reach 106.1mmt, a 2.6mmt increase from previous estimates. Soybean crush is also expected to slightly rise to 57.1mmt. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts Brazil’s crop at 169mmt, while Brazil’s crop agency Conab estimates 166.3mmt. 🌱🌍
📦 US Corn Exports Surpass Expectations 📈
US corn exports exceeded expectations last week, with 1.5mmt (61 million bushels) inspected for export during the week ending January 16. This marked a 6.9% increase compared to the prior week and a 106% increase compared to the same week in 2023. Meanwhile, soybean shipments were disappointing, falling to 973,145mt (36 million bushels), 28% lower than the previous week and 18% lower than last year. Wheat shipments also fell short, down 13% from the prior week.
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0:00 Argy Rains Disappoint
2:11 Slow Brazil Harvest Start
4:15 Tariff Update
7:41 The Funds
10:06 Soy Exports to China Decline
11:36 Bitcoin and Trump Meme Coin
🌧️ Weather Woes Continue for Argentina and Brazil 🌾
While Argentina and southern Brazil received some rain over the weekend, soybean crops are still struggling with dryness in key areas. Argentina’s central soybean regions received up to 1" of rain, but much of the problem areas remained dry. Forecasts indicate that rainfall will stay scarce in the next 5 days, though better chances are expected later, based on the Euro model.
In Brazil, the soybean harvest is facing its slowest pace in four years, with just 1.7% of the crop harvested as of last week, far behind 6% last year. Excessive rain in Mato Grosso has hindered progress, making this the slowest start to the harvest since the 2010/2011 season. This has also delayed planting for Brazil's second corn crop, with planting at just 0.3%, far below last year's 4.9%.
💼 Trump Delays Immediate Tariff Action 🚨
President Donald Trump has delayed the immediate implementation of tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, opting instead for a review of trade policies with China, Canada, and Mexico. The main focus is on ensuring that trade deals such as the USMCA and the Phase One trade deal with China are being adhered to. This delay offers some relief to those concerned about immediate tariff impacts, though Trump is still considering 25% tariffs by February 1st on goods from these countries.
📈 Fund Positioning Shows Optimism in Corn & Soybean Markets 🌽
"The Funds" have significantly increased their net-long positions in corn and soybean markets. For the week ending January 14, large money managers were net buyers of 48k corn contracts, bringing their total long position to 292k contracts, the largest since May 2022. Soybean markets also saw substantial buying, with 73k contracts purchased, making this the largest net long position in soybeans since November 2023. The funds were also net sellers of 5k contracts of SRW wheat, signaling more focus on corn and soybeans.
🇨🇳 US & Brazil Soybean Exports Diverge 📉
US soybean exports to China declined by 5.7% in 2024, reaching 22.1mmt, while Brazilian exports surged by 6.7% to 74.7mmt. As Brazil’s market share in China increased to 71%, the US share dropped to 21%. This shift reflects growing competition between the two countries. Argentina’s soybean exports to China also jumped, more than doubling to 4.1mmt. 🌍
💰 Bitcoin Reaches New Heights Before Inauguration 🪙
Bitcoin surged to a new all-time high, surpassing $109,000 early Monday, as President Donald Trump's administration is expected to create a pro-crypto regulatory environment. This surge in Bitcoin prices was fueled by anticipation of Trump’s potential crypto advisory council and the creation of a national Bitcoin reserve.
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📉 US Farmer Selling Increases Amid Economic Pressures 🚜
According to Reuters, US farmers have increased their selling of corn and soybeans this week, following the USDA's report that reduced the 2024 corn and soybean production estimates. Despite the recent rally in grain markets, farmers continue to face low profits and rising input costs. Farm income has fallen by nearly 23% since 2022, raising concerns about the year ahead.
🌱 Soybean Futures Fall Despite Tighter US Supply 🛑
Soybean futures dropped sharply on Thursday, with the Mar25 contract losing 25 cents per bushel 🌾. While the US supply and demand situation has tightened, global soybean supply remains burdensome, and recent improvements in the weather forecast for southern Brazil and Argentina may have triggered the selling. The global market's supply concerns persist, but farmers and traders alike will be watching the weather patterns closely as these two key regions experience different growing conditions 📉.
🌍 Brazil's Soybean Crop Forecast Slightly Raised 📈
Agroconsult has slightly raised its forecast for Brazil's soybean crop to 172.4mmt, a small increase from its previous estimate of 172.2mmt 🌱. This increase is attributed to ideal weather and favorable planting conditions in most areas of Brazil. However, excessive rainfall in central Brazil and dry conditions in southern Brazil could affect harvest and yields. Despite these concerns, Brazil’s overall soybean production is set to remain strong, with record acreage expected 🌾.
💼 Trump’s Treasury Nominee Defends Tariff Plans 💰
During his confirmation hearing, Scott Bessent, President-elect Donald Trump's nominee for Treasury Secretary, defended the tariff proposals, suggesting they would be implemented gradually over the coming months 📊. Bessent emphasized that tariffs would help address unfair trade practices and geopolitical issues, despite concerns from some senators about their potential impact on inflation.
US export sales showed improvements in corn and wheat but remained weak for soybeans. 🌾
Corn sales reached 1mmt (40 million bushels), surpassing expectations, with Japan as the largest buyer 🇯🇵.
Soybean sales were 569,100mt (21 million bushels), slightly up from the previous week but down 27% from the 4-week average . China was the largest buyer 🇨🇳.
Wheat sales reached 513,400mt (19 million bushels), exceeding expectations, with South Korea as the largest buyer 🇰🇷.
🌧️ USDA Drought Monitor Shows Limited Improvement 🚨
The USDA released its weekly drought monitor, showing minimal precipitation across the Corn Belt and High Plains. However, drought conditions improved slightly in eastern Ohio, northern Indiana, and northeast Missouri, while worsening in southwest Nebraska 🌾🌧️. Here’s a breakdown of the areas still affected:
Corn: 42% affected 🌽
Soybeans: 34% affected 🌱
Winter Wheat: 22% affected 🌾
Spring Wheat: 33% affected 🌾
Cattle: 32% affected 🐄
📦 Flash Sales of Soybeans and Corn 📊
In another round of flash sales, US exporters sold:
132,000mt of soybeans (5 million bushels) to China 🇨🇳 for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
135,000mt of corn (5 million bushels) to Taiwan 🇹🇼 for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
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0:00 Subscribe!
1:00 Canada Tariff Threat
3:45 45Z / CSA
5:42 NOPA Crush
8:13 Argentina Rainfall
9:58 Ethanol Production
10:59 Consumer Inflation
Canada's Potential Tariffs on US Products
Canada is preparing to impose tariffs on $105 billion worth of US products if President-elect Donald Trump moves forward with his planned tariffs on Canadian goods. The list of products targeted by Canadian tariffs hasn’t been disclosed yet, but they could affect almost a third of US exports to Canada.
USDA Issues New Rule for Climate-Smart Biofuels
The USDA has announced an interim rule regarding climate-smart practices for biofuel feedstocks. This includes corn, soy, and sorghum and provides farmers with more flexibility to adopt practices like no-till, cover crops, and nutrient management to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This rule will tie into the 45Z tax credit guidance, potentially unlocking new market opportunities for farmers producing biofuel feedstocks.
US Soybean Crush Hits Record High
The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) released its December crush data, showing that US soybean crush hit an all-time high of 206.6 million bushels. This is a 6.9% increase from November and a 5.8% increase compared to last year. Soybean oil stocks climbed to 1.2 billion pounds, although they were slightly below trade estimates. This marks a strong 2024 for soybean production and oil availability.
Argentina's Crop Outlook Revised
The Rosario Grains Exchange has lowered its corn and soybean crop estimates for Argentina. Argentina's corn crop is now projected at 48mmt, down from previous estimates of 50-51mmt due to dry conditions. Similarly, soybean output is expected to fall, as droughts have reduced yields. The revised forecasts suggest that rainfall in both Argentina and southern Brazil could provide some relief in the coming weeks.
US Ethanol Production Remains Strong
US ethanol production fell slightly by 1% last week to 1.1 million barrels per day but remains up 3.1% compared to last year. Ethanol stocks rose to 25 million barrels, marking a 3.6% week-over-week increase. Implied gasoline demand showed a slight dip, down 1.8% from the previous week, but remained steady year-over-year. Keep an eye on ethanol production as it continues to play a key role in biofuel output and agriculture!
Inflation Indicator Declines for First Time Since July
Core CPI (excluding food and gas) rose by 0.2% in December, showing the first decline since July. The annual increase is now 3.2%, down slightly from 3.3% in November. Headline CPI rose to 2.9%, staying in line with expectations. Experts are concerned that Trump’s economic policies could cause inflation to resurge.
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0:00 Reduced Tariff Threat and US Dollar
3:43 Differing Tariff Opinions
6:46 Grain Marketing WARNING
7:37 CONAB Report
9:52 FTC and John Deere
10:57 Wholesale Inflation
12:24 Flash Sale
💰 President-Elect Donald Trump's Tariff Proposal: Gradual Increase 🌐
President-elect Donald Trump’s economic team is deliberating a gradual increase in tariffs starting next year. This approach aims to increase negotiating power while avoiding inflation spikes. The announcement on Tuesday triggered a decline in the US dollar and US Treasury yields 📉. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.4%, and the 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.75% 📊.
🇨🇳 China's Soybean Trade: Is There a Tariff Threat? 🌾
Analysts are divided on whether China will impose tariffs on US soybeans. While trade between the US and China remains crucial for both countries, China’s domestic production of soybeans is growing, which could reduce its reliance on US imports 🌱. However, US farmers support Trump’s policies, and he is unlikely to harm their interests. Analysts suggest that a phase two trade deal could address these concerns and ensure continued soybean trade.
🌾 Brazil’s Soybean Crop Projected to Reach Record High 🌎
Brazil's crop agency, Conab, forecasts a record Brazilian soybean crop of 166.3 million metric tons (mmt), an increase of 12.6% from last season 📈. This is due to favorable growing conditions and a projected rise in soybean acreage. Soybean exports are expected to hit 105mmt, a 6.5% increase from last year 🚢. However, Brazil's corn production estimate was slightly lowered to 119.6mmt due to drier conditions in southern Brazil 🌽. See Brazil and Argentina weather maps below for more on the agricultural impact 🌧️.
⚖️ FTC vs. John Deere: Lawsuit in the Works? 🚜
The US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) is considering a lawsuit against John Deere for restricting repair access 🛠️. The FTC claims Deere's practices violate competition laws by denying farmers and independent repair shops access to necessary diagnostic tools. This has led to an increase in maintenance costs for agricultural equipment by 48% in the past four years 🚜. The FTC has been investigating Deere since 2021, and a decision on filing the lawsuit is expected soon 🏛️.
📉 Wholesale Inflation Tamer Than Expected 📊
Wholesale inflation in December came in below expectations, with the PPI rising by 3.3% compared to last year (up from 3% in November). The figure was still lower than the anticipated 3.5% increase 📉. Monthly prices rose by just 0.2%, well below the expected 0.4% 📈.
🌱 Flash Soybean Sale 🚢
The USDA reported a flash sale of soybeans on Tuesday 🌾. US exporters sold 198,000 metric tons (7 million bushels) to China for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year.
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0:00 Big Row Crop Rally
3:04 The Funds
5:12 Canada Tariffs?
8:07 China Soybean Imports
9:42 South America Update
11:34 Grain Shipments
Corn and Soybean Futures Rally Again
Corn and soybean futures continued their upward trend on Monday, with Mar25 corn contracts gaining 6 cents per bushel, marking its best close since June 18th. The rally from the August low to Monday’s high saw a 72-cent increase, or about 18%. Meanwhile, Mar25 soybean contracts gained nearly 28 cents per bushel, achieving its best close since October 8th. From December’s low to the overnight high, the contract rose by $1.10, or approximately 12%. These market movements reflect a tightening of US supply and demand, driven by bullish data from USDA last Friday.
Trump’s Tariffs on Canada to Include Oil
In a major development, President-elect Donald Trump is planning to include oil in his tariffs on Canadian imports. The premier of Alberta confirmed the news after meeting with Trump over the weekend. Canada is expected to retaliate with its own tariffs, potentially restricting energy exports to the US. Alberta supplies nearly 4 million barrels per day of oil to the US, which could have significant implications for energy prices.
China’s Record Soybean Imports in 2024
China has imported a record 105.03 million metric tons (mmt) of US soybeans in 2024, marking an increase of 6.5% from 2023. This surge in imports is attributed to concerns about potential US-China trade tensions under Trump’s administration, along with favorable crush margins and declining soybean prices. Despite the surge, Chinese traders have diversified their suppliers and are preparing for possible disruptions due to potential trade wars. US soybean sales remain strong but may face challenges from oversupply and weak margins.
Soybean Harvest Disrupted in Mato Grosso
Rainfall is impacting soybean harvest in Mato Grosso, Brazil’s largest soybean-producing state. According to AgRural, the harvest pace is the slowest in seven years, although the state’s soybean potential remains excellent with no quality issues reported. However, the delay could impact the second corn crop planting window, a concern for Brazil’s corn producers. Meanwhile, southern Brazil continues to experience hot temperatures and a lack of rainfall, affecting soybean crops.
US Export Sales Exceed Expectations
US export sales were strong last week. The USDA reported that 1.4mmt (57 million bushels) of corn were inspected for export, up 64% from the previous week and 51% higher than the same week last year. Soybean shipments also increased to 1.4mmt (50 million bushels), up 4.2% from the prior week and 5.5% from last year. Wheat shipments were reported at 288,895mt (11 million bushels), though slightly lower than the previous week. Additionally, US exporters sold 198,000mt (7 million bushels) of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year.
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🌽 Corn Futures Surge Following USDA’s Bullish Report 📊
Corn futures rallied sharply on Friday, with the nearby Mar25 contract gaining more than 14 cents per bushel and posting its best trade since June 20th 📈. The USDA reduced its estimate of the 2024 US corn crop by a whopping 267 million bushels, and USDA’s estimate of last year's national corn yield was cut by 3.8 bushels per acre, marking the largest Nov to Jan cut on record. As a result, 2024/2025 US corn ending stocks were revised down to 1.54 billion bushels from 1.738 billion previously 📉. See the ending stocks to use ratio charts below.
🌱 Soybean Futures Follow Corn’s Lead 📈
Soybean futures also rallied on Friday, with the Mar25 contract gaining over 26 cents per bushel, marking its best trade in nearly two months 📅. The USDA reduced its estimate of the 2024 US soybean crop by 95 million bushels. The USDA’s estimate of last year's US national soybean yield was cut by 1 bushel per acre, the largest Nov to Jan cut on record. Additionally, 2024/2025 US soybean ending stocks were lowered to 380 million bushels from 470 million previously 🌾.
🛢️ Crude Oil Prices Surge Following U.S. Sanctions 🇷🇺
Crude oil prices surged on Friday, with WTI crude rising 3.6% to settle at $76.57 per barrel, its highest level since October 🔝. The increase was driven by U.S. sanctions targeting Russian oil companies and more than 180 tankers, along with Russian energy officials and executives. These sanctions are expected to push Indian and Chinese refiners to turn to the Middle East for additional oil supplies 🌍.
📊 US Export Sales Underperform 📉
US export sales were disappointing last week. Net corn sales dropped to a marketing year low of 445,000mt (18 million bushels), down 43% from the previous week and 61% from the prior 4-week average 📉. Net soybean sales also fell to a marketing year low, with a total of 288,700mt (11 million bushels), down 40% from the previous week and 72% from the 4-week average 🚫. Net wheat sales also hit a marketing year low, coming in at 111,300mt (4 million bushels), down 21% from the prior week and 70% from the prior 4-week average 📊. See charts below.
🍳 Biden Administration Releases 45Z Tax Credit Guidance 🍴
The Biden administration released updated 45Z tax credit guidance on Friday 📝. The guidance prohibits the use of used cooking oil imports for biofuel production from qualifying for the tax credit under the GREET model. This led March soybean oil futures to jump 7%, reaching their highest level since June 2023. The updated guidance comes after a surge in cheaper used cooking oil imports from China, which had undercut domestic soybean oil prices 💸. While providing clarity, many US biofuel and agricultural groups criticized the guidance for lacking sufficient details on qualifying criteria 🌿.
🌍 Brazil’s Soybean Crop: Conflicting Projections 🌾
Brazil’s soybean crop projections remain in flux 📉. On Friday, Patria Agronegocios revised its estimate downward to 167.9mmt, a reduction from its earlier forecast of 170.4mmt. This revision was due to unfavorable weather impacting crop yields in some regions 🌧️. On the other hand, Safras and Mercado raised its forecast to 173.7mmt, an increase from 171.8mmt. Despite concerns about weather, Mato Grosso is expected to offset some production losses.
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🌱 Biden Administration to Release 45Z Tax Credit Guidance Today 💼
The Biden administration plans to release short-term 45Z tax credit guidance today 📆. However, the Trump administration will make the final ruling on the tax credit once he takes office 🏛️. The credit was set to become effective on January 1, but the lack of guidance from the US Treasury has threatened the program’s activation 🛑. Biden's administration believes companies can follow the interim guidance, but any final rule will depend on Trump's decisions 💰. Wintry weather in Washington, DC, and the funeral of former President Jimmy Carter may delay the guidance release ⏳.
📊 USDA Monthly Crop Production & WASDE Report Today 📅
USDA will release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE report today at 11am CST 🗓️. The quarterly Grain Stocks report will be released alongside the monthly report 📉. Analysts expect a small reduction in the size of the 2024 US corn and soybean crops 🌽🌱. If realized, this could lead to reduced carryout projections. US corn stocks as of December 1st are expected to be down less than 1% from last year, while soybean stocks are projected to be up 8% and wheat stocks up 10% 🌾. Stay tuned for key updates from the USDA report 📊.
🌧️ Argentina’s Crops Need Moisture ☀️
Argentina's corn and soybean crops are experiencing stress due to hot and dry weather 🌞. According to the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange, rainfall is expected to arrive next week 🌧️, with 2 to 3 inches of rain forecasted for January 16-22 ⏳. About 92% of both soybean and corn crops have been planted, and the much-needed rain will help the crops through their critical stages 🌱. The wheat harvest in Argentina is nearly complete, with an estimated production of 18.6 million metric tons (mmt) 🌾.
🌍 La Niña Officially Arrives 🌦️
La Niña has officially formed in the tropical Pacific Ocean 🌊, though later and weaker than expected. This weather pattern is usually associated with drier conditions across the southern and western US as well as South America 🌎. La Niña increases the risk of drought in agricultural regions of Argentina and Brazil 🌾. However, the weakness of the pattern suggests the impacts may not be as severe this time ⚖️. La Niña is expected to persist through April, with a 60% chance it will fade between March and May, shifting to ENSO-neutral 🌐.
🌧️ Winter Storm Brings Relief to Drought-Stricken Areas 🌀
The USDA weekly drought monitor reported improvements in drought conditions following a winter storm that moved across the Corn Belt last week ❄️. The storm brought much-needed precipitation to areas like eastern Ohio, northern Indiana, northeast Missouri, and northern and eastern Illinois 🌧️. Significant snowfall also helped improve drought conditions in northeast Kansas 🌨️. Despite these improvements, drought remains a concern in several areas, including corn, soybeans, and spring wheat production 🌽🌾.
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0:00 National Emergency and Tariffs
2:57 USDA Preview
6:45 Argentina Rains Expected
8:01 Brazil Update
9:33 Ethanol Production is Strong
10:31 Flash Sale
📈 US Dollar and Bond Yields Rise Amid Economic Concerns 💵
The US dollar and bond yields continued their upward trend on Wednesday 📈. The 10-year US Treasury note yield rose to 4.73%, its highest level since April, while the dollar index increased 0.28% to 109.00, slightly below last week's two-year high of 109.54 📊. The rise in the dollar and yields followed a CNN report suggesting that Donald Trump might declare a national economic emergency to push forward his broad tariff policies.
🌾 USDA's Crop Report and Grain Stocks Release on Friday 📅
The USDA will release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports on Friday 📊. Analysts expect a small reduction in the size of the 2024 US corn and soybean crops, which could lead to reduced carryout projections if realized 🌽🌱. US corn stocks as of December 1st are expected to be down less than 1% year-on-year, while soybean stocks are forecast to be up about 8% and wheat stocks up about 10% 🌾.
🌧️ Argentina Forecasted to Receive Rainfall 🌦️
Argentina is expected to receive substantial rainfall over the next couple of weeks 🌧️. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange predicts that Argentina's key farming region will receive 2 to 3 inches of rain in mid-January 🌧️. This comes after dry conditions linked to La Niña have begun to impact crops. Water reserves in major farming areas have been at critical levels following below-normal rainfall in December. The forecasted rainfall will help crops reach February, when rainfall typically resumes 🌱.
🌞 Dry Conditions Affecting Soybean Crops in Brazil 🇧🇷
Dry conditions are starting to impact soybean crops in southern Brazil 🌞. Parts of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil's southernmost state, have gone 15 to 20 days without significant rainfall 🌾. The state's northwestern region is expected to remain dry for another 12 to 15 days, though the situation is not yet critical 🚨. Meteorologists expect more consistent rainfall by late January, with frequent rains continuing through February, which could improve the crop situation 🌧️. Meanwhile, Central Brazil is forecast to receive heavy rainfall, which may interfere with the early soybean harvest 🌱.
⛽ US Ethanol Production Declines Slightly 📉
US ethanol production decreased last week for the first time in a month 📉. Weekly output dropped by 1% to 1.1 million barrels per day, though it was still 5.1% higher compared to the same week last year 🌽. Ethanol stocks increased by 2.2% compared to the prior week and were up 2.4% from the same week in 2023 📊. Meanwhile, implied gasoline demand was up 3.8% from the previous week but down 5.9% from the same week last year 🚗. Over the last four weeks, implied US gasoline demand is down slightly compared to last year 📉.
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0:00 Re-Inflation and Grain Prices
4:15 Argentina
7:46 Farmer Sentiment
9:29 Ethanol Exports Spike
11:12 Ag Startup Valuation
12:11 Corn Flash
Stock Market Tumbles Amid Inflation Concerns
The stock market took a hit on Tuesday with the Dow Jones dropping 0.4%, the S&P 500 declining 1.1%, and the Nasdaq falling 1.9%. The continued resilience of the economy has pushed back expectations for when the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates this year. Additionally, concerns are rising that President-elect Donald Trump's tariff plans could lead to inflationary pressures.
USDA Optimistic About Argentina’s Soybean Crop
USDA's Argentina office is maintaining a positive outlook for the country’s soybean crop. The crop forecast remains steady at 52 million metric tons (mmt), with an increase in soybean acres and ideal growing conditions contributing to this stable projection. La Niña conditions may pose a risk to yields, but record-high soybean crush of 42 mmt is expected, driven by strong exports and consistent crush rates.
US Farmer Sentiment Declines Slightly in December
US farmer sentiment dropped slightly in December, with the Purdue CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index falling to 136, a 9-point decline from November. Despite this, the index remains at its highest level since August 2021. The slight dip is attributed to farmers' concerns about farm conditions and the agriculture industry, but they remain optimistic about the future, particularly after the presidential election. The potential for a trade war under Trump's administration is a rising concern, with 48% of farmers now believing a trade war is either likely or very likely, up from 42% in November.
US Ethanol Exports Surge in November
US ethanol exports saw a major boost in November, climbing to 187.6 million gallons, a 31% increase from October. 2024 exports are on track to surpass 1.9 billion gallons, which would represent 12% of US ethanol production and set a new record. The surge is largely driven by strong growth in key markets like Canada, India, and the European Union. While exports of dried distillers grains fell 15% in November, they were still 14% higher than the same time last year.
Inari Agriculture’s Valuation Soars
Inari Agriculture, an agtech startup, has seen its valuation skyrocket in 2024. The company raised $144 million in new funding, increasing its valuation by 32% to $2.17 billion. Inari develops wheat, corn, and soybeans that require less fertilizer, water, and land, providing sustainable solutions for farmers. The additional funding will help Inari expand its innovative solutions and strengthen its position in the agriculture tech space.
USDA Reports Flash Sale of Corn
The USDA reported a flash sale of 110,000 metric tons (4 million bushels) of corn to Colombia for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
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0:00 Analysts are Bearish Soybeans
2:56 Trump Tariff Talk
4:25 The Funds
7:41 South American Weather
9:34 Grain Shipments
10:38 Bird Flu
Analysts Warn Soybeans Could Fall Below $9 Amid US/China Trade Tensions
Rabobank analysts warn that soybean prices could drop below $9 per bushel if a new US/China trade war erupts. They believe that China would retaliate with its own tariffs on US grains and oilseeds if President-elect Donald Trump proceeds with his aggressive tariff plan. This could give Brazil an even stronger position in the Chinese market, as they would likely benefit from reduced US soybean exports.
Trump Denies Softening Stance on Tariffs
President-elect Trump denied claims that he might adopt a softer approach to tariffs. On Monday, Trump dismissed a Washington Post article suggesting that his tariff plan might focus only on sectors critical to national security. This would have been a significant shift from the tariffs he promised during his presidential campaign.
Funds Increase Net-Long Position in Corn
The Funds have substantially increased their net-long position in corn futures. According to CFTC’s weekly Commitment of Traders data, as of Tuesday, December 31, large money managers were net buyers of 58,000 corn contracts. Funds were also net buyers of 29,000 soybean contracts and 12,000 SRW wheat contracts during the week.
Weather Relief for Brazil and Argentina
Extended weather forecasts provide some relief for portions of southern Brazil and northern Argentina, which have been experiencing dry conditions. Both the Euro and GFS models agree that these regions will remain mostly dry through the next 10 days. However, rain chances are expected to return during the 10-16 day period, with some normal rainfall possible between 15-28 days. This has impacted soybean meal futures, which closed lower on Monday and continued trading lower early this morning.
US Export Shipments in Line with Expectations
US corn shipments were in line with expectations last week, with 847,463 metric tons (33 million bushels) inspected for export. However, this was 6.6% lower compared to the previous week and 22% below the same week last year. Soybean shipments came in at 1.3 million metric tons (47 million bushels), down 22% from the prior week but up 23% compared to last year. Wheat shipments exceeded expectations at 412,342 metric tons (15 million bushels), up 22% from the previous week but down 18% from last year.
First US Human Fatality from Bird Flu Confirmed
The US has confirmed its first human fatality from bird flu, a case involving an individual with underlying health conditions over the age of 65 in Louisiana. There have been 61 human bird flu cases nationwide. The majority of cases have occurred among farmworkers in California and Washington who had contact with infected poultry or dairy cows.
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🌞 Argentina's Hot and Dry Weather Impacting Crops 🌱
Hot and dry conditions in Argentina are starting to take a toll on the corn and soybean crops 🌾. While both crops experienced ideal growing conditions during spring thanks to abundant rainfall, high temperatures and reduced rainfall at the end of December are now affecting their development ☀️. The Rosario Grains Exchange reported that some areas received only 30% of their average rainfall in December 🌧️. Despite these challenges, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange stated that the crops are still progressing well due to moisture earlier in 2024. However, Argentina is expected to remain hot and dry over the next two weeks, which could further stress crops 🌞.
🇨🇳 China Adds US Companies to Export Control List 🔒
China has added 28 US companies to its export control list, preventing them from exporting dual-use items (products that can be used for both civilian and military purposes) to China 📉. The exact enforcement details and which products will be classified as dual-use remain unclear 🔍. Additionally, China imposed sanctions on 10 defense firms related to military sales to Taiwan 🇹🇼. These sanctions are expected to have little impact as US military companies do not sell arms or related goods to China 💡. These actions are seen as a response to the anticipated tougher US policies against China under President-elect Donald Trump 🤔.
💵 US Dollar Index Hits Two-Year High 📈
The US dollar index reached its highest level in over two years last week, rising 0.8% against a basket of currencies as the new trading year began 📊. The strength in the dollar is attributed to investor optimism about Donald Trump’s return to the White House, as they expect lower taxes and deregulation to boost economic growth, consumer spending, and business investment 💰. However, analysts caution that the US dollar could face a correction, with only two quarter-point rate cuts expected this year and the potential for negative US economic data 📉.
📉 US Export Sales Disappoint in Latest Report 🌽
US export sales were underwhelming last week, with net corn sales falling below expectations at 777,000 metric tons (31 million bushels) 🌽, a 55% decrease compared to the previous week and 44% below the 4-week average 📊. Mexico was the largest corn buyer for the week 🇲🇽. Net soybean sales also fell short of expectations, declining to a marketing year low of 484,700 metric tons (18 million bushels) 🌱, a 51% drop from the previous week and 67% lower than the 4-week average 📉. China was the largest soybean buyer 🇨🇳. Net wheat sales also missed expectations, coming in at 140,600 metric tons (5 million bushels) 🌾, down 77% from the previous week and 68% from the 4-week average 📉.
⚡ US Renewable Diesel and Biofuel Production Up in October 🔋
US renewable diesel and biofuel production increased in October, with renewable diesel producers using 77% of their capacity, the highest since July 🌱. Biodiesel producers utilized 89% of their capacity, marking the highest level since June 2023 🔋. The increase in production is attributed to improved margins, which were boosted by higher tax credit values and stronger demand 🚗.
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🌽 Corn and Soybean Futures Close Higher 📈
Corn and soybean futures saw strong performances on Thursday, with the Mar25 soybean contract breaking above technical resistance on Tuesday and closing higher again on Thursday 🌱. The Mar25 corn contract also posted its best close since late June 📊. However, anecdotal reports suggest that US farmers continue to sell corn and soybeans into the rally as spreads and basis have weakened 🌽. This indicates a more balanced market despite the price gains 📉.
🇧🇷 StoneX Increases Brazil’s Soybean Crop Estimate 🌾
StoneX has raised its outlook for Brazil’s soybean crop to 171.4 million metric tons (mmt), a 3.1% increase from its previous estimate 🌱. This revision is driven by expected increases in planted acreage and improved yields 🌞. The forecasted crop would be 14.4% larger than last season's, with Brazilian soybean exports expected to rise by nearly 4% this season to 107mmt 🇧🇷. USDA has the crop pegged at 169mmt, while Conab (Brazil's government agency) estimates it at 166.2mmt. Additionally, StoneX also increased its forecast for Brazil’s corn crop to 128.6mmt 🌽.
🌞 Dry Weather Threatens Parts of Argentina’s Soybean Crop 🇦🇷
Portions of Argentina’s soybean-growing regions are likely to remain dry in the coming weeks 🌞. While areas of Cordoba and San Luis received some rainfall, Santa Fe and northern Buenos Aires remain mostly dry 🌾. The forecast calls for continued dry conditions in northern Argentina and southern Brazil, which represent a significant portion of the soybean output 🌍. Southern Brazil contributes about 30% of the country's soybean production, while the dry areas in Argentina account for 20-25% of its soybean output 🌱.
🐄 Cattle Futures Soar Amid Wintry Weather Forecast ❄️
Cattle futures surged on Thursday, reaching life-of-contract highs amid forecasts of wintry weather across the Plains. This rally is driven by a shortage of feeder cattle, as the US beef cowherd has fallen to its lowest level in seven decades 🐄. Resilient consumer demand has also supported cattle prices. However, there are concerns that heavy snowfall and freezing temperatures next week could affect fat cattle performance, as wintry weather last year caused fat cattle weights to decline by 3% 📉.
🌧️ USDA Weekly Drought Monitor: Precipitation Brings Relief 🌧️
The latest USDA drought monitor revealed that much of the Corn Belt received substantial precipitation last week 🌽. Some areas reported rainfall amounts ranging from 200% to 600% above normal 🌧️, leading to improved drought conditions across Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois 🌱. Slight improvements were also observed in Wisconsin and Minnesota 🌾. Precipitation was widespread across the High Plains, but rainfall was not significant enough to warrant substantial drought improvement in those areas 🌾.
📈 Stock Market Soars in 2024 🚀
The S&P 500 had an exceptional year in 2024, gaining 23.3% 📊, marking its second consecutive year with annual gains surpassing 20% 📈. This follows a 24.2% gain in 2023. The Dow Jones rose 12.9% in 2024, while the Nasdaq surged 28.6% 🚀. Several factors contributed to the strong market performance, including the growth of AI technology, Donald Trump's presidential victory, and the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by a full percentage point.
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📈 Funds Increase Net-Long Position in Corn Futures 🌽
The Funds have increased their net-long position in the corn market, according to CFTC’s weekly Commitment of Traders data 📊. As of Tuesday, December 24, large money managers were net buyers of 8,000 corn contracts 🌽. Additionally, funds were net buyers of 3,000 soybean contracts and net sellers of 12,000 SRW wheat contracts for the week 🥖. This shift highlights a more bullish outlook for corn amidst broader market dynamics 📈.
🌾 Corn and Soybean Futures Rally Before Late Selloff 📉
Corn futures rallied yesterday, with the March 2025 corn contract hitting a high of $4.58 per bushel before closing lower 🌽. This was the highest trade since June 25th 📅. The March 2025 soybean contract also rallied but faced trend resistance near $10.04, ultimately closing at $9.92 🌱. While holiday markets tend to be slower, increased farmer selling amid the rally, especially in corn, has played a role in the price action 📉.
🌦️ Dry Weather Forecast for Brazil and Argentina 🌾
Moisture deficits are expected in some areas of Brazil and Argentina over the next two weeks 🌞. Southern Brazil, Uruguay, and northeast Argentina are forecast to receive well-below-normal rainfall 🌧️. In particular, Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná, key soybean-growing regions in southern Brazil, are expected to see rainfall less than 35% of normal 🌾. Even drier conditions are projected for parts of northeast Argentina, raising concerns about crop development 🌱.
🚢 US Corn Shipments Decline, Soybean and Wheat Shipments Rise 📦
US corn shipments saw a decline last week, with 878,380 metric tons (35 million bushels) inspected for export, down 23% from the previous week but up 54% from the same week last year 🌽. Soybean shipments were strong at 1.6 million metric tons (58 million bushels), down 12% from the prior week but up 62% compared to the same week last year 🌱. Wheat shipments also increased, reaching 337,685 metric tons (12 million bushels), which was 17% lower than the previous week but 22% higher than last year 🌾.
🏭 ADM Faces Shareholder Pressure Amid Investigation 🧐
ADM is facing shareholder criticism after the company’s stock has fallen by about 30% this year, marking its largest decline since the 2008 financial crisis 📉. Hartwig Fuchs, an ADM shareholder and former executive, has called for the CEO’s resignation, citing failures to address the company’s declining stock value. ADM disclosed an investigation into its nutrition division’s accounting practices in January, and further errors were found in November. Fuchs is urging the CEO to offer clearer explanations to rebuild investor trust 📊.
📦 Flash Sale of Soybean Oil 🌱
The USDA reported a flash sale of soybean oil on Monday 📦. US exporters sold 23,000 metric tons of soybean oil to India for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year 🇮🇳. Since the beginning of the year, 174,000 metric tons of soybean oil have been sold through flash sales 🌾.
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0:00 Export Sales
2:35 Ethanol Production
5:38 Argentina Update / Weather
6:57 Brazil Update / Weather
8:32 Russia Wheat Problems
9:56 US Dollar is Strong
US Corn Exports Surge, Soybean Sales Fall
US corn export sales surged last week, surpassing expectations with 1.7 million metric tons (67 million bushels) of corn sold. This was a 46% increase from the previous week and 39% higher than the 4-week average. Mexico was the largest corn buyer for the week. On the other hand, soybean sales dropped to a marketing year low at 978,400 metric tons (36 million bushels), falling 31% from the previous week and 47% from the 4-week average. China was the largest soybean buyer for the week. Wheat sales exceeded expectations with 612,400 metric tons (23 million bushels) sold, a 34% increase from the previous week. Mexico was the largest wheat buyer.
US Ethanol Production Continues Strong
US ethanol production remained robust last week, with weekly output of 1.11 million barrels per day, showing a 3.4% increase compared to the same week last year. Ethanol stocks rose to 23.07 million barrels, a 2% increase from the prior week. Implied gasoline demand was also up by 1% compared to the previous week and 3% compared to the same week last year. Over the past four weeks, implied US gasoline demand has risen by 3.5% compared to the same period last year.
Argentina’s Corn and Soybean Acreage Adjustments
The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange has revised its outlook for Argentina’s corn and soybean acres. Corn acreage is now projected at 16.3 million acres, nearly 5% higher than the previous estimate. However, soybean acreage was reduced by 1.1%, now projected at 45.5 million acres, as farmers shift to more profitable crops.
Brazil’s Soybean Crop Estimate Increased
The USDA's Brazil attaché office has raised its Brazil soybean production estimate to 165mmt, citing timely planting and favorable early rainfall. The updated estimate is 2.3% higher than last season’s crop. CONAB, Brazil’s government agency, is forecasting the crop at 166.2 mmt, while the USDA projects 169 mmt.
Russia’s Winter Wheat Conditions Deteriorating
The condition of Russia’s winter wheat crops is forecast to worsen in January due to warmer-than-average temperatures and excess precipitation. This has led to weakened sprouts. While crop conditions in southern Russia are expected to be average, soil moisture remains low, posing risks to yields.
US Dollar Strengthens Amid Economic Growth and Tariff Concerns
The US dollar is on track to post its strongest annual gain in nearly a decade, rising over 7% this year, according to the Bloomberg Spot Index. The dollar's strength is attributed to the robust US economy, which has reduced expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts. Additionally, Trump’s tariff threats have boosted expectations for the dollar’s performance, making it a key focus in global ma
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🌾 Grain and Oilseed Complex Rally on Thursday 📈
The grain and oilseed complex saw a notable rally on Thursday, with the soybean meal market leading the charge, gaining a whopping 4.4% 📊. Soybean futures finished sharply higher, while soybean oil ended marginally lower 🌱. The March 2025 corn contract gained 5 cents per bushel, posting its best close since June 25th 🌽. Wheat futures saw marginal gains, although they remain stuck in a sideways pattern 📉. This rally reflects strong market dynamics in the broader grain complex.
🌞 Argentina’s Dry Weather Forecast 🌾
Argentina is set to experience dry weather in the coming weeks 🌞. Rainfall across the country’s soybean areas is expected to be scattered and well below normal, which could negatively impact the soybean crop 🌱. Temperatures are forecasted to trend above average during the same period 🔥. The recent rally in soybean meal prices is likely due to concerns about Argentina’s soybean crop. While the extended forecast suggests a return to normal rainfall, farmers in Argentina typically complete soybean planting during the first half of January 🌾.
🇨🇳 China’s Efforts to Boost Cereal Grain Consumption 🌾
China is implementing measures to significantly boost cereal grain consumption over the next ten years 📊. As the world’s largest producer of cereal grains, China still relies on corn and wheat imports to feed its 1.4 billion people 🌍. Despite being the second-largest global corn producer, much of China’s corn is used for livestock feed 🐄. To improve grain production and quality, China plans to focus on developing grain varieties suitable for human consumption 🌾. The country also aims to establish stronger international grain standards and build global partnerships 🤝.
🇷🇺 Russian Wheat Exports to Decline Significantly 🌾
Russian wheat exports are set to decline next season, with Russian consulting group IKAR projecting exports to fall to 41 million metric tons (mmt) during the 2025/2026 season, a 6% decrease from the current season 📉. Wheat exports are expected to decline by 5% this season, although Russia will still remain the world’s leading exporter of wheat 🌍. This reduction is attributed to lower yields in winter crops due to a lack of fall moisture 🌧️. Despite a record wheat export in the first half of this season, government-imposed export restrictions will likely drive the decline 📉.
🌧️ USDA Drought Monitor Data 📊
The latest USDA drought monitor shows limited precipitation across the Corn Belt last week 🌽. Drought conditions have largely remained unchanged, although there was some improvement in southeast Kentucky 📉. Precipitation was also limited across the High Plains, where drought conditions stayed the same. Overall, 6% fewer areas in the region are experiencing drought compared to this time last year 🌱. As of the latest data:
54% of US corn is affected by drought 🌽.
47% of US soybeans are impacted 🌱.
27% of US winter wheat and 33% of spring wheat are experiencing drought 🌾.
37% of cattle are in drought-affected areas 🐄.
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0:00 Merry Christmas!
1:00 99 Soybean Problems
4:41 Brazil Economic Problems
7:43 Russia Crop Concerns
9:13 Strong Soybean Shipments
10:23 Flash Sales
🌾 Brazilian and Argentine Weather Forecasts Diverge 🌍
Brazil’s weather remains nearly ideal for soybean growth, with above-normal temperatures expected across most of the country in the next two weeks 🌞. Soybean planting in Brazil is complete, and USDA projects that Brazil will account for 40% of global soybean production this year 🌱. In contrast, Argentina’s weather is turning dry, with key soybean areas expected to receive less than half of their normal rainfall over the next two weeks 🌾. While it's too early for a full "crop scare event," the soybean meal market has already taken notice 📉. Argentina is expected to account for only 12% of global soybean production this year 🌍.
💵 Brazil’s Interest Rates Expected to Rise Amid Inflation 📈
Brazil’s benchmark interest rate is projected to rise sharply as inflation continues to run high. Brazilian economists expect the rate to climb to 15% by June 2025 💸. This month, rates were increased by 1% to 12.25%. The depreciation of the Brazilian real has contributed to elevated inflation levels, as investors lose confidence in the currency due to doubts about Brazil’s president’s commitment to improving the economy.
🌾 Russia’s Winter Crops Face Warm Temperatures 🌡️
Russia’s winter crops could be impacted by above-average temperatures, potentially causing sprouts to resume vegetation 🌱. Sovecon, a Russian consulting group, projects that winter wheat crop acres will be about 5% less than last year 📉. This follows earlier reports that over 37% of Russia’s winter crops were rated as poor or yet to sprout, marking the worst crop condition on record 🌾. Additionally, wheat exports are expected to decline by 17% this season, mainly due to lower production.
📦 US Soybean Shipments Surge, Corn and Wheat Sales Mixed 🚢
US soybean shipments were strong last week, with 1.7 million metric tons (64 million bushels) of soybeans inspected for export 📦. This was a 3% increase from the previous week and a 56% rise compared to the same week last year 📊. Corn shipments were reported at 1.1 million metric tons (44 million bushels), which was a 1.7% decrease compared to the previous week and an 8.5% decline compared to the same week last year 🌽. Wheat shipments hit a 12-week high, surpassing expectations with 403,719 metric tons (15 million bushels) 🌾. The wheat figure was 34% higher than the previous week but 15% lower than the same week last year.
📦 USDA Reports Flash Sales of Corn and Soybeans 🚢
132,000mt (5 million bushels) of corn were sold to unknown destinations for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year 🌽.
132,000mt (5 million bushels) of soybeans were sold to China for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year 🌱.
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0:00 18k Subs!
0:50 Shutdown Avoided + Direct Payments
4:24 Argentina is Dry
6:30 Biofuels at Risk?
8:00 US/Mexico Corn Dispute
9:20 The Funds
10:05 Cattle on Feed
US Government Shutdown Avoided with New Stopgap Spending Bill
A US government shutdown was avoided over the weekend when President Joe Biden signed a stopgap spending bill that will fund the government through mid-March. The bill includes a one-year extension of the 2018 farm bill and $10 billion in economic aid for US farmers. However, a provision allowing the nationwide, year-round sale of E15 fuel was excluded.
Direct Farm Payments Set to Arrive in 90 Days
The $10 billion in direct payments to US farmers is now a "done deal," with payments set to be distributed within 90 days. The payments will be allocated by crop. The payments are part of the stopgap bill, which also includes significant support for the farming community.
Argentina's Forecast: Dry Conditions for Soybean Areas
Argentina’s soybean areas are expected to receive less than half of their normal rainfall over the next two weeks. Although the forecast is slightly wetter than before, the overall trend remains dry. Temperatures are expected to run above normal, further stressing crops. While Argentina is projected to account for just 12% of global soybean production, it is expected to make up 37% of soybean meal exports.
Trump Plans to Repeal the Inflation Reduction Act
President-elect Donald Trump is planning to repeal the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which was passed by the Biden administration in August 2022. The repeal of the IRA could also risk the loss of 45Z tax credits, which support farming practices that reduce emissions and improve soil carbon. Repealing the IRA would likely require Congressional action, and its rollback could impact the clean energy sector.
US Prevails in GMO Corn Trade Dispute with Mexico
The US won a trade dispute with Mexico over its ban of US genetically modified (GMO) corn. A trade panel ruled that Mexico’s ban violated the USMCA trade agreement and was not scientifically based. The ban had previously applied to GMO corn for human consumption, but US producers were concerned that it might be extended to GMO corn used for animal feed.
Funds Reduce Net-Long Position in Corn
Funds reduced their net-long position in corn last week, with large money managers reported as net sellers of 8,000 corn contracts. Soybean and SRW wheat contracts also saw net selling.
USDA’s COF Report
The USDA’s Cattle on Feed report shows that the number of cattle on feed as of December 1 was 12 million head. Placements in November were reported at 96% of year-ago levels. Marketings last month came in at 99% of year-ago levels.
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US House Rejects Trump-Backed Spending Bill
The House rejected a Trump-backed spending bill on Thursday night. The bill required a two-thirds majority but failed by a vote of 174 to 235, with nearly 40 Republicans voting against it. Without a deal, a partial government shutdown is set to begin tonight at midnight.
Soybean Futures Bounce Amid Bearish Market
Soybean futures bounced back on Thursday after hitting fresh lows earlier in the week. The March 2025 contract gained 13 cents on the day after breaking through technical support levels. Despite bearish fundamentals, the bounce maintained momentum overnight, although the contract may face technical resistance near the $9.82 level, a previous area of support. Corn futures also bounced, while wheat remained mostly lackluster in price action.
Drier Conditions Expected for Key Soybean Areas in Argentina
Key soybean areas in Argentina are expected to turn drier in the coming weeks. Recent below-normal precipitation has already affected corn and soybean regions, and the forecast predicts that Argentina’s soybean areas will receive only 46% of normal rainfall over the next two weeks. Argentina is projected to account for 12% of global soybean production this year. Meanwhile, Brazil’s weather forecasts remain favorable, with most key soybean areas expecting above-normal rainfall. CropProphet provides detailed weather maps to track these shifts.
Chicago Wheat Futures Decline for Sixth Consecutive Session
Chicago wheat futures declined for the sixth consecutive session on Thursday, with the March 2025 contract falling by as much as 1.9%. This marks the lowest level since late August. The decline was attributed to a strong US dollar and concerns about ample global wheat supplies. According to the USDA, global wheat production for the season is expected to be the largest on record.
US Soybean Export Sales Increase
US soybean export sales saw an increase last week, with 1.4mmt (52 million bushels) of soybeans sold. This was a 21% increase from the previous week but down 27% from the 4-week average. China was the largest soybean buyer for the week. Corn sales also saw an increase, with 1.2mmt (46 million bushels) sold, up 24% from the prior week. Wheat sales were strong as well, totaling 457,900mt (17 million bushels), a 58% increase from the previous week.
AGCO Shares Plummet Amid Struggling Farm Economy
AGCO’s shares tumbled by as much as 6.1% on Thursday before recovering slightly to close with a 3.8% loss. The decline follows AGCO’s announcement that 2025 net sales are projected to be around $9.6 billion, a significant drop from the $12 billion estimated for this year. The reduction is partly due to AGCO’s divestment of its grain-storage and livestock business, compounded by the struggling farm economy, which is expected to weigh on sales. North American retail sales are projected to decline by 25% next year.
USDA Drought Monitor Data: Conditions Improve in Some Areas
The latest USDA drought monitor data reveals that parts of the Corn Belt received precipitation last week. Drought conditions improved across portions of Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Iowa, and Missouri, but worsened slightly in western Missouri. The High Plains saw scattered precipitation, and conditions improved in northeast Nebraska and southwest Kansas.
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Trump Opposes Stopgap US Government Spending Bill
President-elect Donald Trump has voiced strong opposition to the stopgap US government spending bill. In a Fox News interview, Trump stated that he is totally against the bill, although he doesn’t have the power to veto it, as he isn’t president yet. Trump’s influence over Republican lawmakers could still impact the bill’s passage. The spending package, if passed, would fund the government through mid-March. However, if the bill fails, the government could face a partial shutdown as early as Saturday. The bill includes $31 billion in aid for US farmers, which has been a point of contention for many agricultural groups.
Soybean Futures Collapse Amid Bearish Market Sentiment
Soybean futures took a significant hit on Wednesday, with the March 2025 contract losing more than 25 cents per bushel. On a continuation basis, spot futures posted their lowest trade since late August. A breakout below key technical support earlier in the week likely triggered additional selling pressure. Fund traders were estimated to have sold 20,000 contracts, contributing to the downward trend.
Brazil's Soybean Crop Estimate Continues to Rise
Estimates for Brazil’s soybean crop continue to grow. Patria Agronegocios, a Brazilian consulting group, now expects the crop to reach 170.4 million metric tons (mmt), slightly above the USDA's forecast of 169 mmt. Brazil’s corn crop is also projected to be robust at 129.3 mmt, compared to the USDA's estimate of 127 mmt.
US Ethanol Production Strong Again
US ethanol production was strong last week, with output reaching 1.1 million barrels per day, a 2.3% increase from the previous week and 2.7% higher than the same week last year. Ethanol stocks stood at 22.6 million barrels, slightly lower than the prior week but still up 2.4% year-over-year. Implied gasoline demand was up 1.3% compared to the previous week and 1% higher than last year, reflecting consistent fuel demand. Over the last four weeks, implied US gasoline demand is up 2.9% compared to the same period last year.
Biden Administration Awards $116 Million to Fertilizer Industry
The Biden administration has awarded $116 million to the fertilizer industry to help increase competition and lower costs. The funds will be distributed to eight facilities to expand fertilizer production across nine states. This investment comes as agricultural groups and lawmakers have criticized the consolidation of the $140 billion US fertilizer industry.
Federal Reserve Cuts Interest Rates for Third Time in a Row
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25% on Wednesday, marking its third consecutive rate cut. The new benchmark short-term rate is now 4.25% to 4.5%. The Fed signaled that it expects to reduce rates only twice in 2025, as opposed to the previously anticipated four cuts. The news sent stock markets tumbling, with the Dow Jones falling 2.6%, the S&P 500 dropping 3%, and the Nasdaq losing 3.6%.
The USDA reported flash sales on Wednesday:
135,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of corn were sold to Colombia for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
120,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal were sold to Colombia for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year.
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0:00 Direct Farm Payments
4:08 Year-Round / Nationwide E15
6:37 Soybean Collapse
8:12 Reduced Russian Wheat Crop
9:39 Brazil Currency
11:22 Flash Sales
Stopgap US Government Spending Bill Includes Aid for Farmers
If approved, the stopgap US government spending bill will include additional economic assistance for farmers. The bill extends the 2018 Farm Bill for one year and provides $10 billion in aid to help farmers cope with challenging markets and severe weather conditions. The House of Representatives is expected to vote on the bill Thursday night, and it will then head to the Senate for approval before the government shutdown deadline on Friday night.
Year-Round E15 Fuel Sales Approved
The stopgap funding bill will allow for the year-round, nationwide sale of E15 fuel. Currently, E15 is available only in a few states during the summer months due to environmental restrictions. The approval is expected to gradually increase ethanol usage, with demand growth contingent on consumer adoption and infrastructure development.
Soybean Futures Hit Fresh Lows
Soybean futures fell to fresh lows overnight, with the March 2025 contract dipping below $9.70 per bushel for the first time. The violation of key technical support levels led to additional selling pressure. The global soybean supply and demand situation is projected to be hugely burdensome due to the expectation of a massive Brazilian crop. While US processors are on track to crush a record amount of soybeans, exports have been weak compared to the last decade.
Sovecon Cuts Russia’s 2025 Wheat Crop Forecast
Sovecon, a Russian consulting group, has reduced its forecast for Russia’s 2025 wheat crop by 3.7%, bringing the projection down to 78.7 million metric tons (mmt). The reduction is due to poor crop conditions, which are some of the worst seen in decades. If achieved, the 2025 wheat crop would be the smallest since 2021 and below the five-year average of 88.2 mmt.
Brazilian Central Bank Intervenes to Stabilize Real
The Central Bank of Brazil conducted two dollar auctions on Tuesday, totaling over $3.3 billion in an effort to stabilize the real. This marks the fourth intervention in three days, aiming to halt the currency’s steep decline. The real has fallen by more than 20% this year, hitting a record low against the US dollar. On the back of this, Brazil’s central bank hiked interest rates by 1% to 12.25% last week, with two more hikes expected by March.
The USDA reported several flash sales of soybeans and corn on Tuesday:
170,400mt (7 million bushels) of corn were sold to Mexico for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
187,000mt (7 million bushels) of soybeans were sold to Spain for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year.
132,000mt (5 million bushels) of soybeans were sold to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year.
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🌱 NOPA Reports November Soybean Crush Data 📊
The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) released its November crush data, showing a decline in US soybean crush for the month. NOPA members processed 193.19 million bushels, a 3.4% decrease from the October record but a 2.2% increase compared to November 2023 🌾. Despite the drop from October, November’s crush was the largest on record for the month and the fourth largest ever for any month. Soybean oil stocks at the end of November increased to 1.08 billion pounds, up 1% from October but down 11% compared to last year’s stocks. Stocks also fell short of the average trade estimate of 1.12 billion pounds 📉.
⚖️ Farm Aid Negotiations Delay Stopgap Funding Bill ⏳
Negotiations over farm aid have delayed the release of the stopgap funding bill. Initially expected on Sunday, the bill's release has been postponed due to disagreements over economic farm assistance and other provisions. Speaker Mike Johnson is facing challenges due to a slim majority and conservative opposition as the government faces a shutdown deadline this Saturday 🏛️. Lawmakers from agriculture states are pushing for a one-year farm bill extension and additional funding for farmers affected by severe weather 🌾. GOP leaders are pushing for $12 billion in economic aid for farmers, and agricultural groups are urging that this be included in the final package 💼. Updates on this are expected to be released as early as today 📰.
💸 Brazilian Real Hits Record Low, Central Bank Takes Action 🇧🇷
The Brazilian real fell to a record low on Monday, leading the central bank to sell $1.63 billion in a dollar spot auction to stabilize the currency 🏦. Despite this effort, the real declined more than 1%, closing at 6.1351 per dollar 🌍. The central bank had also raised interest rates by 1% last week, with plans for two more hikes, but these measures have had limited impact due to rising government spending and inflation concerns 💰. Brazil’s president has shifted blame to the central bank for the country’s fiscal challenges and is defending the government's recent fiscal package 📉.
🌾 Brazilian Soybean Planting Nearly Complete 🇧🇷
Brazilian farmers have nearly completed soybean planting for the 2023/2024 season, with favorable rainfall boosting growing conditions across most of the country 🌧️. However, far southern areas have received excessive precipitation, which could impact those regions' crops 🌱. AgRural, a private agricultural group, is projecting that Brazil’s soybean crop will reach 171.5 million metric tons (mmt) for the season, up from previous forecasts 🌍.
📉 US Soybean Shipments Decline, Corn and Wheat Shipments Increase 🚢
US soybean shipments declined last week, with 1.7 million metric tons (62 million bushels) of soybeans inspected for export, a 3.5% drop from the previous week but an 18% increase compared to the same week last year 📦. Corn shipments were strong, totaling 1.1 million metric tons (44 million bushels), up 6.8% from the previous week and 18% higher than the same week last year 🌽. Wheat shipments increased to 298,075 metric tons (11 million bushels), up 20% from the previous week and 4.7% higher than last year’s shipments 🌾.
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0:00 Direct Payments?
3:46 Drier Argentina
5:23 "The Funds" and Corn
8:31 Brazil Deforestation
9:55 Mexican Cattle Imports Still Suspended
US Corn and Soybean Industry Groups Push for Financial Assistance
US corn and soybean industry groups are urgently seeking financial assistance for farmers. With Congress yet to release or vote on its year-end spending package, farm groups are pressing for legislation to provide economic support due to challenging market conditions and poor weather. Although Congressional leaders have indicated the package does not currently include aid for farmers, both groups are calling for renewed talks on a potential aid package. There may be fresh developments on the FARM Act today.
Argentina's Soybean Areas Face Dry Conditions
Some Argentina soybean areas are likely to experience below-normal rainfall over the next two weeks, particularly in the key northern areas of the Buenos Aires province 🌾. Soybean areas further north are expected to see more normalized rainfall, while Brazil will experience above-normal rainfall across most soybean-producing regions, except for far southern areas, which have already been too wet. These rainfall patterns are crucial for crop development, and further changes could impact overall yield forecasts.
The Funds Increase Net-Long Position in Corn
Fund traders significantly increased their net-long position in the corn market last week, with the CFTC data showing that as of December 10, large money managers were net buyers of 92,000 corn contracts. This brings the total net-long position to 166,000 contracts, the largest since February 2023. Funds also bought 15,000 soybean contracts and 3,000 SRW wheat contracts on the week, reflecting bullish sentiment in the grain markets.
New Brazilian Laws Threaten Amazon Soy Moratorium
New laws in several Brazilian states, including Mato Grosso and Rondonia, may weaken soybean restrictions in the Amazon, particularly regarding the Amazon soy moratorium. This moratorium, established in 2006, bans companies from buying soybeans produced on deforested land after 2008. Environmental groups are strongly criticizing the new laws, which remove tax incentives for companies that comply with the moratorium.
Mexican Cattle Imports Delayed Until Next Year
Mexican cattle imports are not expected to resume until next year. The USDA reported that shipments are likely to resume incrementally after the New Year, with full resumption expected later in the year 🐄. Imports were halted in November after the detection of New World screwworm in a cow near the Guatemalan border. The USDA is using $165 million from the Commodity Credit Corporation to help eradicate the pest in Mexico and Central America.
USDA Flash Sale of Soybeans
The USDA reported a flash sale of 200,000mt (7 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year.
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Brazilian Soybean Crop Estimate Increased
Conab, Brazil’s version of the USDA, has raised its estimate for the 2023/2024 Brazilian soybean crop to 166.2mmt, up slightly from its previous estimate and 12.5% higher than last season. Favorable growing conditions have boosted both planting progress and crop development. As of December 1, 90% of the expected soybean area had been planted. Soybean acres are projected to expand by 2.6%, reaching just over 117 million acres this season.
US Soybean and Corn Export Sales Disappoint
US soybean and corn export sales were disappointing last week, with soybean sales falling well below expectations at 1.2 million metric tons (43 million bushels), a 49% drop from the previous week and 42% below the 4-week average. China was the largest soybean buyer for the week. Similarly, corn sales were also below expectations, at 946,900 metric tons (37 million bushels), a 45% decline from the previous week and 32% below the 4-week average. Colombia was the largest corn buyer. Wheat sales also lagged, totaling 290,200 metric tons (11 million bushels), 23% lower than the previous week.
Canada’s Potential Retaliation Against US Tariffs
Canada is considering export taxes on key commodities, such as uranium, oil, and potash, if President-elect Donald Trump imposes broad tariffs on Canadian imports. Canada is the largest foreign supplier of oil to the US and a key exporter of uranium for US nuclear plants. It also supplies potash, which is crucial for US agriculture.
US Agriculture Sector Discusses Policies with Trump’s Team
The US agriculture sector is engaging with Donald Trump’s team to address concerns over his proposed policies, particularly around tariffs, trade, and immigration. Some agricultural groups are pushing for the expansion of the H-2A visa program to meet labor needs. There’s also a call for China to honor its commitment to purchase $50 billion annually in US agricultural products, as per the Phase One trade agreement. However, concerns remain about Trump’s tariffs, with many industry groups fearing negative impacts on trade and the broader economy. Similar to his first trade war, Trump is expected to provide financial aid to farmers to offset potential losses.
Summit Carbon Solutions Gets Approval for Pipeline
Summit Carbon Solutions has received approval from the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission to build 28 miles of carbon capture pipeline running from the North Dakota border to an ethanol plant in Fergus Falls, Minnesota. Construction is set to begin in 2026, pending finalization of right-of-way agreements with landowners along the route. Summit has already received permits in IA and ND and is reapplying in SD after initial rejection.
USDA Drought Monitor Data
The latest USDA drought monitor shows that drought conditions remain prevalent across the Corn Belt, with limited precipitation last week. Drought conditions worsened in portions of Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri, while conditions were mostly unchanged in other areas, including the High Plains. Notably, western Kansas saw an expansion of drought conditions. As of the most recent data:
57% of corn is affected by drought.
51% of soybeans are experiencing drought stress.
29% of winter wheat and 33% of spring wheat face drought.
41% of cattle are impacted by dr
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0:00 Farmer Selling
2:35 China is "Prepared" for Trade War
6:10 Ethanol Production
7:22 Gold/Silver Tariff Implications
8:28 Inflation Update
Corn Futures Encounter Technical Resistance
Corn futures struggled on Wednesday to break through key technical resistance levels. The most heavily traded March 2025 contract stopped just 1 cent short of its October high before reverting lower. Anecdotal reports suggest a substantial amount of farmer selling occurred, which contributed to the price pullback. Despite this, ethanol plants and elevators posted weaker basis bids amid strength in the futures market. Private estimates indicate that fund traders were net buyers of 5,000 contracts on Wednesday after buying 30,000-35,000 contracts on Tuesday. Some estimates suggest large money managers could be net long as much as 150,000 contracts in real time.
Potential Second Trump Trade War: A Bigger Risk for US Grain Exports
Analysts believe that a second trade war with China could be more damaging than the first, especially for US soybean exports. During the first trade war, Chinese soybean purchases from the US dropped 79%, but China still relied on US supplies for certain needs. If a new trade war breaks out, however, China may completely shift to Brazilian soybeans and could bypass US soybeans entirely. Additionally, China is better prepared for another trade war, as it currently holds record soybean stocks. In recent years, China has also sought to reduce its reliance on US corn, approving the import of Brazilian and Argentine corn.
US Ethanol Production Shows Modest Increase
US ethanol production increased slightly last week, with output reaching 1.08 million barrels per day, showing a small increase both from the previous week and compared to the same week last year. Ethanol stocks were reported at 22.6 million barrels, a 1.5% decrease from the previous week but a 5.6% increase from the same week last year. Implied gasoline demand rose by 1% compared to the previous week and 4.1% year-over-year. Over the last four weeks, implied US gasoline demand is up 1.1% compared to the same period last year.
Gold and Silver Premiums Surge Amid Tariff Concerns
Gold and silver premiums surged in New York on Wednesday, with gold futures for February delivery trading up to $60 an ounce above spot prices in London. Silver futures were more than $1 an ounce higher during the session. This spike in premiums was driven by short-covering by banks and funds, with concerns about the potential impact of 10% tariffs on precious metals.
Consumer Prices Rise in November
US consumer prices rose by 2.7% in November on an annual basis, up from 2.6% in October. For the month, inflation climbed 0.3%, marking the largest monthly increase since April. Both figures were in line with expectations. Despite the uptick in inflation, traders are anticipating a 99% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point at their meeting next week.
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🌽 Corn Futures Rally on USDA Report 📊
Corn futures rallied on Tuesday, driven by a friendly USDA report 📈. The nearby March 2025 corn contract gained more than 7 cents per bushel, closing at $4.49, its best close since early October 🌽. The USDA increased its projection for US corn exports by a whopping 150 million bushels, citing a strong sales pace. In addition, the USDA raised its forecast for corn demand via ethanol by 50 million bushels. As a result, the USDA reduced the 24/25 US carryout projection by 200 million bushels, signaling a tighter corn balance sheet 📉.
🌾 USDA's Bearish Soybean Projection Continues 📉
The USDA continues to project a burdensome soybean situation for the current marketing year 🌱. The government left its US soybean balance sheet unchanged, with Brazil's crop estimate remaining at 169 million metric tons (mmt) and Argentina's production estimate slightly increased to 52 mmt 🌍. The global supply and demand situation for soybeans is expected to be the 2nd most bearish on record, only behind the 2018/2019 marketing year. The stocks/use ratio is also expected to remain high, further indicating pressure on the soybean market 📉.
🇨🇳 China Prepares Stimulus Measures Amid US Tariffs 🏦
China is ready to implement stimulus measures to counter the effects of US trade tariffs 💰. In response, China will adopt a more relaxed monetary policy and proactive fiscal measures, marking a shift from its cautious approach of the past 14 years 📊. This policy change reflects China's willingness to take on higher debt levels and a rising debt-to-GDP ratio as it aims to stimulate growth 🏗️. These measures will prioritize consumption and high-tech manufacturing while managing risks. The extent of China’s policy will depend on the timing and scale of new US tariffs 🇺🇸.
💼 Trump's Tariffs May Not Be as Severe as Expected 📉
President-elect Donald Trump's tariffs may not have the far-reaching impact many have anticipated 💼. Leaders from Guggenheim Partners and Franklin Templeton suggest that Trump’s tariffs could be more of a negotiating tactic rather than universal and severe actions 🔄. Experts argue that these targeted tariffs may not trigger a full-scale trade war, and the negative impacts on the global economy are expected to be delayed due to the slow pace of policy implementation in Washington, D.C. 📅.
📊 US Inflation Likely Paused in November 📉
The downward trend in US inflation appears to have paused in November 📊. The CPI report is expected to show an annual inflation rate of 2.7%, up 0.1% from October 📈. On a monthly basis, inflation is anticipated to have risen 0.3%. Traders are still predicting a 77% chance that the Federal Reserve will lower rates by a quarter percentage point at next week’s meeting 🏦. However, some economists are concerned that Trump’s proposed tariffs could keep inflation elevated into 2025, potentially limiting the Fed’s ability to cut rates as expected 📊.
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0:00 Canada Tariff Threat
3:00 USDA Preview
4:50 Brazil Soybean Update
7:59 Russia Back and Forth
9:10 Grain Shipment Update
10:15 Trump and Beef Industry
Canada Warns of Retaliation Against US Tariffs-
Canada is preparing to retaliate if President-elect Donald Trump follows through with his plan to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian imports. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has made it clear that Canada will respond if the tariffs are enforced. In 2018, Canada retaliated to Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum by imposing tariffs on bourbon and Harley-Davidsons, which were effective enough to lead to the removal of those tariffs.
USDA Crop Production Report to be Released Today-
The USDA will release its monthly Crop Production report today at 11:00am CST. Traders are expecting minimal changes to the US grain balance sheets. Some believe the USDA will increase its demand projections for US corn, particularly through exports and ethanol production, while others think the agency will delay adjustments until January.
Brazilian Soybean Planting Nearing Completion-
Brazilian soybean planting is nearly complete, with 95% of the expected area already planted by last Thursday, up from 91% the previous week.
Russian Wheat Crop Condition: Updated Outlook-
The Russian wheat crop may not be as poor as previously reported, according to a Russian analytical group that leaked data suggesting a high proportion of the crop was either in poor condition or hadn’t sprouted yet. However, Sovecon, a Russian consulting firm, stated that it is too early to assess the crop's condition, as increased temperatures linked to climate change have led to a delayed sprouting of many plants.
US Soybean Shipments Decline, Still Above Last Year-
US soybean shipments declined last week, with 1.6 million metric tons (60 million bushels) of soybeans inspected for export, marking a 23% decrease from the previous week. However, shipments were still 62% higher than the same week last year. Corn shipments were strong, at 1 million metric tons (41 million bushels), up 10% from the prior week and 45% higher than the same week last year. Wheat shipments, however, fell below expectations, at 226,513 metric tons (8 million bushels), a 24% drop from the previous week.
US Beef Market Faces Further Constraints from Tariffs and Immigration Reform-
The US beef herd continues to shrink, driven by drought, rising input costs, and market volatility, with herd numbers at their lowest since 1961. This reduction has driven beef prices to record highs, and cattle markets have soared to all-time highs. If Trump imposes tariffs on beef or cattle imports, beef prices could rise even further. Additionally, Trump’s planned immigration reform could increase labor costs for meat packers, potentially impacting the beef market by pushing prices even higher.
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0:00 2-Day Corn Rally
2:55 The Funds
4:22 Russia Wheat Update
7:25 Mexico to Negotiate
8:50 World Food Prices
🌽 Corn Futures Rally on Friday 📈
Corn futures rallied on Friday, with the most heavily traded March 2025 contract gaining 5 cents per bushel and posting its best daily close since November 20th. The rally is attributed to strong demand for US corn, particularly from both exports and ethanol production, which have outperformed expectations 🌱. Farmers remain tight holders of their 2024 bushels, and end-users have had to increase basis bids to secure the corn they need 🌾. Private estimates suggest that fund traders were net buyers of 11,000 contracts of corn on Friday 📊.
📊 CFTC Data: Funds Reduce Net-Long Position in Corn 🌽
According to the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders data, large money managers were net sellers of 11,000 corn contracts last week 📉, indicating a reduction in their net-long position in the market. However, funds were net buyers of 13,000 soybean contracts 🌱 and net sellers of 10,000 contracts of SRW wheat 🌾 during the same week. This shift in positions may signal potential changes in market dynamics for the coming weeks 🧑💼.
🌾 Russian and Ukrainian Wheat Crop Projections 📊
Russia’s 2025 wheat crop is projected to remain unchanged from this year, with an estimated 81.5 million metric tons (mmt), slightly up from this year's 81.3 mmt 🌾. Dry conditions that reduced this year’s crop production also led to a reduction in planting for next year’s crop, with damaged winter wheat likely to be replanted with spring wheat 🌱. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s wheat crop is projected to increase by 6%, with the 2025 crop estimated at 23.7 mmt, up from 22.4 mmt in 2024 📈.
🇲🇽 Mexico Responds to Trump's Tariff Threats 📉
Mexico is seeking to negotiate in response to President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff threats 🌎. Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada are aimed at curbing illegal immigration and drug trafficking. In response, Mexico has cracked down on drug smuggling from Asia, detained thousands of migrants, and seized a record amount of fentanyl 💊. Additionally, Mexico is planning to adopt an investment screening approach similar to the US, offering incentives for manufacturing investments, including the production of batteries for regional supply chains ⚡.
📈 Global Food Prices Surge to 18-Month High 🌍
Food prices have climbed to their highest level in over a year and a half, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization 📊. The food price index averaged 127.5 points in November, marking a 0.5% increase from October and a 5.7% increase from last year 🌾. The rise is largely driven by an increase in vegetable oil prices, which saw a 7.5% jump from the prior month, the largest increase since July 2022. Cereal prices declined by 2.7% due to a drop in global wheat prices 🌾.
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🌾 Russia’s winter crops are facing significant challenges, with over 37% in poor condition—a record high—and only 31% rated as good, the lowest in 23 years. Due to frosts ❄️ and drought 🌞, some winter crops will need to be replaced with spring crops 🌱. Despite the poor conditions, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister stated the situation isn’t critical. However, the wheat harvest 🍞 is expected to decline by 11% this year.
🌱 Corteva is looking to expand its presence in Brazil's genetically modified (GM) soybean seed 🌾 market, aiming for 20–30% market share with its Enlist E3 seeds by 2030. Although the seeds currently hold a negligible share in Brazil, they dominate nearly two-thirds of the US market 🇺🇸 since their 2019 launch. Challenges in Brazil include competition with Bayer ⚔️ and economic struggles 💸 affecting farmers’ ability to adopt new technologies. Year-to-date, Corteva’s shares 📈 have risen by 29%.
📊 US export sales of soybeans, while down 7% from the previous week, reached 2.3mmt (85M bushels), near the upper range of expectations. China 🇨🇳 was the largest buyer. Corn 🌽 exports exceeded forecasts at 1.7mmt (68M bushels), up 63% from the prior week, with Mexico 🇲🇽 as the largest buyer. Wheat 🌾 sales were 378,200mt (14M bushels), led by Mexican purchases.
🌨️ USDA drought data shows improved conditions in parts of the Corn Belt 🌽, including Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin, due to snowfall. Slight improvements were also noted in northwest Minnesota, southeast Missouri, and eastern North Dakota, but the High Plains 🌾 saw no significant changes. Drought remains widespread, affecting 54% of corn, 49% of soybeans, and 40% of cattle areas 🐄.
🛒 The USDA reported a flash sale of 136,000mt (5M bushels) of soybeans to China 🇨🇳 for the 2024/2025 marketing year. Accumulated soybean sales are up 12% compared to the same period last year, signaling robust demand 📈.
🔔 Stay Informed & Subscribe! For more updates on these key developments in global trade, agriculture, and energy, don’t forget to LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE 🔔, and leave your thoughts in the COMMENTS below! Let’s keep the conversation going! 💬
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0:00 Stock Market and Grain Marketing Comparison
4:29 Bitcoin 100k
6:02 Mexico Economic Problems
7:46 Mexico GMO Ban?
10:47 Russia Wheat Problems
12:11 Ethanol Production Pace
Stock Market Hits Record Highs
The stock market reached new record highs on Wednesday! The Dow Jones climbed by 0.7%, surpassing the 45,000 mark for the first time. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq also set new records, gaining 0.6% and 1.3%, respectively. These gains were driven by a rally in technology stocks, alongside positive remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who stated that the US economy is in "remarkably good shape" and that potential risks in the labor market have subsided.
Bitcoin Soars Above $100,000
Bitcoin traded above $100,000 for the first time early this morning! The world's most famous cryptocurrency has rallied more than 40% since Donald Trump's election in early November. Paul Atkins, a well-known crypto advocate, was appointed to chair the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) by Trump, sparking optimism in the crypto community. Additionally, significant money flows into Wall Street’s Bitcoin ETFs have added to the momentum.
Mexico's Economic Outlook Deteriorates
Mexico’s economic outlook is deteriorating, with 47% of Mexicans now believing the economy is in bad shape, an increase from 44% in October. The economic slowdown is becoming more apparent after only two months under the new administration. The situation could worsen if President-elect Donald Trump follows through with his proposed 25% tariffs on Mexican imports.
Mexico and GM Corn Imports Dispute Nears Resolution
Mexico is optimistic about a resolution to its dispute over genetically modified (GM) corn imports. The US had opposed Mexico’s attempt to limit these imports, claiming that the restrictions violated the USMCA agreement. The dispute resolution is expected by December 14, which could offer clarity on future trade relations between the two countries.
Russia’s Winter Crops Face Record Poor Conditions
Russia’s winter crops are facing the worst conditions on record, with a 37% of the crop in poor condition, the highest percentage ever recorded. In comparison, only 4% of last year’s crop was in poor condition at this time, and the five-year average is 8%. The crop’s quality has significantly dropped, with only 31% rated in good condition, the lowest in 23 years.
US Ethanol Production Declines for the First Time in Over Two Months
US ethanol production dropped by 4.1% last week to 1.07 million barrels per day, the first decline in more than two months. Despite this, production remains 6.1% higher than the same week last year. Ethanol stocks increased to 23 million barrels, a +1% increase compared to the previous week. Implied gasoline demand rose 2.7% compared to last week and 6.5% compared to last year, although US gasoline demand has been slightly down over the las
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🌿 45Z Tax Credit Guidelines: Conflicting Reports and Uncertainty Ahead 💰
There’s confusion surrounding the 45Z tax credit guidelines, as Reuters and Bloomberg have released conflicting reports regarding their finalization. Reuters suggests that the US Treasury will not issue guidance before President Biden’s term ends due to disagreements between agricultural lobbyists and environmentalists over how the program should align with climate goals 🌎. On the other hand, Bloomberg reports that a Treasury spokesperson confirmed the guidance would be issued before the end of Biden’s term, allowing eligible producers to claim 45Z tax credits for 2025 📅. The biofuel industry is urging lawmakers to extend blender credits, which are set to expire at the end of the year, hoping for clarity before the shift in administration 🍃.
🌾 US Farmer Sentiment Surges After Election 📊
US farmer sentiment hit its highest level in over three years following the presidential election 📈. The Purdue CME Group Ag Economy Barometer rose by 30 points in November, reaching 145, its highest since May 2021. The Future Expectations Index jumped by 37 points, reaching 161, its best since April 2021 🌱. Farmers are more optimistic about future regulations and taxes, but concerns remain over agricultural trade, with more than 40% of respondents believing that a trade war with China is likely under the Trump administration 🛒🌏.
🌍 EU Delays Deforestation Law Amid Global Criticism 🌳
The European Union has reached a tentative deal to delay its deforestation law, which aims to limit the import of products tied to deforestation 🌍. The law requires importers to prove their goods, such as soy, beef, and coffee, are not linked to deforested areas 🌱. Brazil, Indonesia, and other major agricultural producers have been critical of the law. The delay will provide time for European businesses and farmers to prepare before the law takes effect. The final adoption of the deal by EU member states and parliament is expected to be a formality by the end of the month 📅.
🏢 ADM Focuses on Cost Reductions Amid Farm Economy Challenges 💼
ADM (Archer Daniels Midland) is implementing cost reduction measures as it faces ongoing challenges in the farm economy. The grain trader anticipates declining profits next year due to low crop prices 🌾. Additionally, uncertainty around biofuel regulations and the potential for a trade war between the US and China could weigh on ADM's profitability 📉. The company is also under investigation by the SEC and federal authorities over accounting errors in its Nutrition division 📊, contributing to a 25% drop in its stock this year 💔.
⚡ Biden's Clean Energy Grants Total Over $100 Billion 🌞
President Biden has awarded $100 billion in clean energy grants through the Inflation Reduction Act, his signature climate legislation 🌱. Over 80% of these grants have already been allocated, securing funding for projects like carbon capture, wind power, and solar energy ☀️. These funds aim to support the transition to clean energy, making it challenging for President-elect Donald Trump, a climate skeptic, to cancel them once he takes office 🌍. The grants also include tax incentives for clean energy projects, which would require congressional action to reverse 📜.
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🌱 Record Brazilian Soybean Crop Projected 🌾
Private consulting groups are forecasting a record Brazilian soybean crop for the 2023/2024 season. StoneX estimates the crop at 166.2 million metric tons (mmt), with exports reaching 103 mmt, while Celeres projects the crop to hit 170.8 mmt, with exports totaling 107 mmt 🌎. The favorable growing conditions and high-quality inputs are driving this projection, although StoneX highlighted ongoing concerns over dryness in southern Brazil 🌞. As of last Thursday, AgRural reported that 91% of the soybean area has been planted, up from 86% the previous week, and ahead of 85% planted at the same time last year 📈.
🏭 Cargill to Lay Off Thousands Amid Declining Profits 💼
Cargill, the global agricultural trading giant, announced plans to lay off 5% of its workforce, or around 8,200 workers, in response to financial pressures. The layoffs will mostly occur before the end of the year, impacting senior leaders but not top executives 🚶. Cargill’s profits have been hit by record global corn and soybean crops and the declining US cow herd, which is at its lowest level in seven decades 🐄. For fiscal 2024, Cargill reported a $2.48 billion profit, the lowest since 2016 📉.
💼 ADM’s Accounting Scandal Expands 📊
The investigation into ADM's (Archer Daniels Midland) accounting errors has expanded. The SEC launched a civil probe earlier this year after the company revised its earnings twice due to discrepancies in its Nutrition division 💼. ADM is facing accusations of inflating profits through manipulated intersegment transactions, which may have led to securities fraud 💸. The company maintains that the errors didn’t affect overall profits, but ADM’s stock continues to struggle, now valued at about half of its 2022 peak 📉.
📉 Funds Reduce Net-Long Position in Corn Market 🌽
"The Funds" have reduced their net-long position in the corn market, with large money managers selling 23,000 corn contracts last week 📉. Additionally, funds were net sellers of 10,000 contracts of soybeans and 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat 🌾. The decline in corn futures reflects shifting sentiment in the market, and the reduced positions come as part of broader adjustments by institutional investors 📉.
📦 US Soybean Shipments Decline, Still Strong Year-on-Year 📊
US soybean shipments declined slightly last week, with 2.1 million metric tons (77 million bushels) inspected for export, a 1.4% decrease compared to the previous week. However, shipments remain +78% higher compared to the same week last year 🌱. Corn shipments were down 7.2% from the previous week, and wheat shipments decreased by 19%. Despite these declines, both corn and wheat shipments were still higher than last year 📦.
🌾 USDA Reports Flash Soybean Sale 🚢
US exporters reported a flash sale of 134,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year 🇨🇳. While soybean sales started off weak this marketing year, they have since recovered and are now ranked as the sixth best in the last ten years, highlighting strong international demand for US soybeans 🌎.
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Trump Proposes Major Tariffs on BRIC Nations and North American Trade
President-elect Donald Trump has proposed 100% tariffs on the BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE) if they undermine the US dollar. These countries are looking to reduce their dependence on the US dollar, which currently dominates global currency exchanges at 58%. With the BRIC nations’ growing economic influence, this move could challenge the dollar’s position in global trade.
Mexico Responds to Trump’s Tariff Threats
Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum clarified her conversation with Donald Trump after his threats to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada. While Trump claimed Sheinbaum agreed to close Mexico’s southern border to migration, Sheinbaum emphasized that Mexico will continue its policy of keeping the border open and fostering positive bilateral relations. She also expressed confidence that a tariff war between the two countries would not take place.
Brazil’s Soybean Crop Expected to Break Records
Agroconsult, a Brazilian consultancy, has forecasted a record-large soybean crop for the 2023/2024 season, estimating a 172.2 million metric tons (mmt) harvest. This would surpass last year’s record of 162.4 mmt by nearly 11%. USDA estimates a slightly smaller crop of 169 mmt, while Brazil's own Conab predicts 166.1 mmt. Brazil’s soybean exports are also projected to hit a record 103.4 mmt, driven by favorable growing conditions and strong international demand.
US Soybean and Corn Export Sales Soar
US soybean export sales reached a marketing-year high, with 2.5 million metric tons (92 million bushels) sold last week. China remained the largest buyer, reflecting robust demand. Meanwhile, corn sales totaled 1.1 million metric tons (42 million bushels), though they were down 29% from the previous week. Mexico remained the largest buyer for US corn. Wheat sales came in at 366,800 metric tons (13 million bushels), showing a slight decline but still strong on the global stage.
US Ethanol Production Hits Record High
US ethanol production reached a record high last week, with an output of 1.12 million barrels per day. This marked the highest weekly output on record, surpassing the previous peak two weeks ago. Ethanol stocks also increased to 22.87 million barrels, reflecting strong production levels. Meanwhile, implied gasoline demand rose 1% compared to the previous week.
Russia Reduces Wheat Export Quota to Combat Inflation
Russia has cut its wheat export quota for the period from mid-February to June, reducing the limit to 11 million metric tons (mmt) — a 62% decrease from last year. This move is designed to control domestic wheat supply amid bad weather and rising inflation, which is currently at 8.5% 📊. Russia will also raise its wheat export duty to 18% starting Wednesday. Despite these measures, Russia is still expected to export 47-52 mmt of wheat this season, retaining its position as the world’s top wheat exporter.
USDA Flash Sales of Soybeans
The USDA reported multiple flash sales of soybeans last week, including 132,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) to China and 991,700 metric tons (36 million bushels) to unknown destinations.
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0:00 Housekeeping Notes
1:08 Mexico Vows Retaliation
3:16 China Buys More Brazilian Soybeans
6:42 Dollar Strength
8:14 Ceasefire
9:27 Consumer Confidence
🚨 Mexico Threatens Retaliatory Tariffs Against the US 🇲🇽💥
Mexico’s President may impose retaliatory tariffs on the US if President-Elect Trump proceeds with his "day-one" tariff agenda 📉. Trump has threatened to impose 25% tariffs on all goods imported from Mexico in an effort to curb illegal migration and the flow of drugs across the US-Mexico border 🌎🚨. President Claudia Scheinbaum warned that Mexico would respond to tariffs with additional measures, potentially risking vital trade relationships between the two nations 💼. Mexico has been the top buyer of US corn this year, making such a move significant for both countries.
🌾 China Secures Brazilian Soybeans Before Trump's Return to the White House 🇨🇳
China is ramping up its soybean purchases from Brazil, securing more than half of its soybean needs for February to April at lower prices 🛒. China is also securing around 20% of its needs for May to June ahead of Trump's return to the White House 🏛️. These purchases come despite higher prices for Brazilian soybeans during the December-January period, a time when the US typically dominates the global market 🌾. While China continues to buy US soybeans, outstanding soybean sales for this marketing year are at their lowest levels since 2018 📉.
💵 Dollar Surges on Trump’s Tariff Threats 💰
Donald Trump's tariff threats have boosted the US dollar, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbing 0.7% on Tuesday 📈. This could lead to record highs for the dollar, surpassing levels seen in the 1980s. The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso both fell sharply, with the peso down by more than 2%.
🇮🇱 Ceasefire Deal Between Israel and Hezbollah 🇱🇧🕊️
A ceasefire deal has been reached between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah militants after months of fighting, which started in October 2023. The deal was brokered by the US and France and went into effect early this morning ⏰. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu supports the ceasefire, as it allows Israel to focus on Iran's threats while continuing efforts to eliminate Hamas and secure the return of hostages 🕊️.
📊 US Consumer Confidence at Highest Level Since July 2023 🛍️
US consumer confidence has surged to its highest point since July 2023, with the Conference Board’s index rising to 111.7 for November, up 2.1 points from October 📊. This increase reflects a more favorable outlook on the economy and labor market following Trump's election victory 🗳️.
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Trump’s New Tariff Plans and Their Impact on Trade
Donald Trump is taking bold steps to address migration and drug trade concerns by imposing additional tariffs. Trump plans to add a 10% tariff on imported goods from China and 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada. The tariffs are part of a broader effort to discourage migration and curb drug trafficking. These new tariffs would complement his earlier plans for 60% tariffs on Chinese imports and 20% on global imports.
US Winter Wheat Conditions Improve with Rainfall
US winter wheat conditions improved dramatically last week thanks to recent rainfall across the High Plains. The crop is now rated 55% good to excellent, a marked improvement from 49% the prior week and 45% on average. The 17% improvement since the end of October is the best for this time of year since 2018. Only 12% of the crop is rated poor to very poor, down from 23% last month.
Brazil Soybean Planting Near Completion
Brazil's soybean planting is nearing completion, with 86% of the expected area already planted by last Thursday. This is up from 80% the previous week and significantly ahead of last year’s pace of 74%.
US Halts Mexican Cattle Imports Due to Screwworm Discovery
The US has halted Mexican cattle imports after the discovery of New World screwworm in a cow near the Guatemalan border in Chiapas, Mexico. This parasite causes severe infections and can infest both animals and humans. As Mexico is the largest source of US cattle imports, this halt is expected to dramatically reduce the supply of feeder cattle, sending futures soaring to their highest levels since July. Imports from Mexico, which were up 21.3% this year, are expected to be restricted for at least the next month.
Coffee Futures Surge Amid Supply Concerns
Coffee futures saw a significant surge on Monday, with Arabica coffee climbing 3% to its highest level since 1997. Robusta futures also hit their highest since the 1970s. Concerns over supply shortages in Brazil and Vietnam are driving prices up. While Brazil experienced heavy rains in October, earlier hot and dry conditions have damaged coffee trees, impacting the upcoming season's production. The USDA forecasts Brazil’s coffee stockpiles to fall 26% by the end of the season, exacerbating concerns.
Scott Bessent Expected to Soften Trump’s Economic Policies
Financial markets reacted positively to Scott Bessent’s appointment as US Treasury Secretary. Bessent, the founder of Key Square Group, is expected to advocate for a more gradual use of tariffs and a focus on economic growth through regulation reduction. His appointment has led to a rise in currencies worldwide, with investors anticipating a softer stance on some of Trump's more extreme economic policies.
US Soybean and Corn Export Sales Update
US soybean shipments declined last week, with 2.1 million metric tons (77 million bushels) inspected for export, a 7.3% drop from the previous week. However, they are still +34% higher compared to the same week last year. On the other hand, corn exports soared, reaching 903,049 metric tons (36 million bushels), which is +115% higher than last year. Wheat exports were also strong, with 360,513 metric tons (13 million bushels) sold, a +25% increase from the same week last year.
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🚢 Mexico's Bold Port Expansion Despite Trade Concerns 🌎
Mexico is moving forward with a $2.7 billion port expansion at the Port of Manzanillo, aiming to more than double its capacity 🚢. This expansion will place it among the top 20 container ports globally 🌍. The port handles goods from over 140 countries, focusing on automotive, agricultural, and steel products. However, there are concerns from the US and Canada that Mexico could become a conduit for China to bypass trade restrictions and enter North America 🚫🇨🇳. Donald Trump has indicated that he plans to impose tariffs on imports from China and Mexico, including a 20% tariff on all goods and a 60% tariff on Chinese imports 📉. Trump has also suggested tariffs of over 200% on imported cars from Mexico 🚗.
🌱 Trump Appoints Brooke Rollins to Lead USDA 🌾
Brooke Rollins has been appointed by Donald Trump to lead the USDA. This surprise choice comes after significant debates among Trump's advisors and agricultural groups 🏛️. Although Rollins has deep ties to Trump and grew up on a farm, she has less agricultural policy experience compared to other candidates. As Secretary of Agriculture, Rollins will play a critical role in shaping agricultural policy, farm subsidies, and trade decisions, including Trump’s proposed tariffs 🏞️🍽️.
🌽 Funds Increase Net-Long Position in Corn Market 💼
"The Funds" have ramped up their net-long position in the corn market, as large money managers bought 7,000 corn contracts last week 📈. This brings their total net purchases to 463,000 contracts since July. The corn market remains strong amid solid demand, and fund managers continue to stay bullish 🌽. On the other hand, soybeans and SRW wheat saw net selling activity last week 📉.
🌱 Brazil’s Soybean Planting Surges Ahead 🌾
Brazilian soybean planting has made rapid progress, with 83.3% of the expected area already planted 🧑🌾, compared to 74.7% last year at this time. Adequate rainfall in recent weeks has accelerated planting, alleviating earlier concerns about dryness 🌧️. With planting well ahead of schedule, Brazil is on track to produce another bumper soybean crop 📊.
🐄 High Cattle On-Feed Numbers Reported 🐄
Cattle on feed in the US remains high, with 12 million head as of November 1, matching pre-report expectations 📉. Placements in October were 105.3% of year-ago levels, reflecting higher placements due to ongoing drought conditions in cattle regions 🐂. Despite this, marketings were lower than expected, with 104.7% of year-ago levels, indicating market stability in the face of strong demand.
🌾 USDA Flash Sale of Soybeans 📦
On Friday, the USDA reported a flash sale of 198,000 metric tons (7 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year 🌍. Since November, unknown destinations have bought 1.2 million metric tons (44 million bushels) of US soybeans through flash sales, indicating continued strong demand for US agricultural exports 🌾📦.
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📈 John Deere Surges Despite Lower Earnings 🚜
John Deere's stock soared 8% on Thursday, following better-than-expected earnings for the fiscal fourth quarter. Despite adjusted earnings per share coming in at $4.55 (higher than the expected $3.87), they were still down significantly from last year's $8.26. Revenue for the quarter dropped 28% to $11.1 billion, but still exceeded the forecast of $9.2 billion. Looking ahead, net income for fiscal 2025 is expected to range between $5 billion and $5.5 billion, down from $7.1 billion in fiscal 2024. Deere’s stock is up 9% year-to-date 📊.
🌱 Soybean Futures Face Pressure 🌍
Soybean futures are under pressure, with the Jan25 contract hovering near life-of-contract lows 📉. Recent negative headlines, combined with favorable weather conditions in Brazil and Argentina, and global oversupply, are contributing to the bearish sentiment. Additionally, concerns over a potential US-China trade war have added to the uncertainty in the market 🌾.
🌾 US Soybean Export Sales Surge 🌍
US soybean export sales showed improvement last week, surpassing pre-report expectations with 1.9 million metric tons (68 million bushels) sold 🛳️. This represents a +20% increase compared to the previous week, though it is still -7% below the 4-week average. China was the largest buyer, continuing its strong demand for US soybeans 🇨🇳. On the other hand, corn sales and wheat sales saw mixed results, with corn sales up 14% from the prior week but down 40% from the 4-week average 🌽.
🌧️ USDA Drought Monitor Update 🌾
The USDA released new drought data, showing improvement in many areas of the Corn Belt following last week's rainfall 🌧️. The overall drought conditions have improved significantly, with only 50% of the region still experiencing some form of drought, down from 74% at the end of October 🌽. Oklahoma and parts of the High Plains also saw improvements in drought conditions 🌾.
🇦🇷 Argentina’s Soybean and Corn Planting Progress 🚜
Argentina is seeing rapid progress in its soybean planting, with nearly 36% of the expected 46 million acres already planted 🌱. The good surface moisture has helped speed up the planting process, with early-planted soybeans showing excellent growth 🌿. In addition, corn planting has reached 39.4% of the expected acreage, and 29.3% of the wheat crop has already been harvested 🌾.
🚨 Flash Sales on Soybeans and Meal 🌍
USDA reported multiple flash sales on Thursday, including:
198,000 metric tons (7 million bushels) of soybeans to China 🇨🇳 for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year.
135,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations 🌎.
133,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal to the Philippines 🇵🇭.
These sales highlight continued strong demand for US agricultural products 📦.
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0:00 Brazil/China Agreement
3:00 Corn Futures are Resilient
6:09 Ethanol Production is STRONG
7:25 Russia Wheat
8:43 Deere Earnings
9:45 Flash Sales
🇨🇳 China Opens Door to Brazilian Sorghum Exports
China has agreed to accept Brazilian sorghum exports, which could significantly impact the US sorghum market. Last year, China imported $1.83 billion worth of sorghum, predominantly from the US 🇺🇸, but with this new deal, Brazil could emerge as a major supplier 🌍. Brazil’s share of the global sorghum market currently stands at just 0.3%, but production has doubled in the last three years to 4.4 million metric tons (mmt) 📊. The move could become even more significant if Trump implements tariffs on China, potentially disrupting US exports to China.
🌽 Resilient Corn Futures Show Strong Demand
Corn futures have remained resilient, with the Dec24 contract showing modest gains despite earlier setbacks 📉. Demand continues to be strong, with export sales exceeding the pace needed to meet USDA projections 📦. Ethanol production is near record levels, contributing to the overall strength of the corn market 🌽. Large money managers are holding a net long position of around 114,000 contracts, suggesting optimism for continued demand. Calendar spreads are also showing strength, reflecting better-than-expected demand.
⛽ US Ethanol Production and Stocks Update
US ethanol production saw a slight dip last week but remains at record highs, averaging 1.11 million barrels per day ⛽. Production is up 6% compared to the same week last year, while ethanol stocks reached 22.56 million barrels, marking a +2.4% increase from the previous week 📉. However, implied gasoline demand showed a -10% decline from the prior week and a -5.9% decrease compared to last year. Despite this, ethanol exports are strong, contributing to record-high production levels.
🌾 Russia Faces Wheat Decline
Russia’s wheat production is expected to fall in the coming year, with farmers shifting to more profitable crops like soybeans and sunflowers 🌻. Frosts and drought have damaged this year’s crop, and production is projected to decline to 83 mmt, down from 92.8 mmt last year 🌾. In addition, increased input costs and export restrictions are further challenging the wheat market.
🚜 John Deere’s Struggles in a Weak Farm Economy
John Deere is set to report its lowest earnings since 2020, with estimated adjusted earnings per share of $3.87 for the fourth quarter, down from $8.26 last year 💼. Deere’s profit forecasts for the next fiscal year could drop to $5.83 billion, reflecting ongoing challenges in the agricultural sector.
🌱 USDA Flash Sales of Soybeans 🇺🇸
The USDA reported flash sales of soybeans on Wednesday, with 202,000 metric tons (7 million bushels) sold to China for the 2024/2025 marketing year 🇨🇳. Another 226,200 metric tons (8 million bushels) were sold to unknown destinations.
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0:00 New Tariff Man
3:05 Xi, Brazil, Farm Trade
4:55 Brazil Crop Estimates
8:23 Russia Update
9:59 US Ethanol Exports
🚨 Major Shifts in Global Trade and Leadership 🚨
🇺🇸 Donald Trump Appoints Howard Lutnick to Lead Commerce Department
Donald Trump has selected Howard Lutnick, the Chairman and CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, to head the Commerce Department. Known for his strong stance against the outsourcing of American jobs, Lutnick is expected to play a key role in implementing Trump’s tariff and trade policies. Trump's agenda includes a 10-20% tariff on all imports and a 60% tariff on imports from China 💼🇨🇳. He is also considering raising tariffs on imported cars from Mexico and countries that stop using the US dollar 🚗💰.
🌏 China Urges for Peace and Stability in Global Trade
During the G-20 and APEC summits, Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of peace and avoiding extreme trade measures that could disrupt global trade 🚢⚖️. Xi expressed concerns about the economic repercussions of Trump's tariff plans, particularly regarding the potential for other countries to adopt similar policies 🌍. Meanwhile, Brazil is gearing up for agricultural trade deals with China, expected to include fruit, beef, and pork 🌱🍖.
🇧🇷 Brazil’s Soybean Industry on Track for Record Crop 📈
Brazil’s soybean crop is expected to hit record levels this season, with projections from the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries estimating a crop size of 167.7 million metric tons (mmt), a 9.4% increase from last year 🌱. Exports are projected to reach an all-time high of 104.1 million metric tons, driven by a boom in soybean crush, which is set to rise 4.6% this season 🌾💥.
⚔️ Ukraine-Russia Conflict Escalates
The ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia continues to intensify, with Ukraine striking a Russian military facility after being approved to use US-supplied long-range missiles. In response, Vladimir Putin updated Russia’s nuclear policy, stating that Russia would use nuclear weapons if Ukraine attacks Russian territory with Western-supplied weapons. The situation remains volatile, with Donald Trump suggesting he could push for peace talks once back in the White House 🕊️💣.
🌾 US Ethanol Exports Reach New Heights 🚜
US ethanol exports are on track to set an all-time high, with a record 29.6 million barrels exported in the first eight months of this year 📊. The increase in exports comes as a result of last year’s record corn crop 🌽, leading to a decline in corn prices and making US ethanol more competitive globally 🌍. Production is also at a record pace, with daily production averaging 1.046 million barrels per day ⛽.
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🌍 Global Tensions Rise as US Approves Long-Range Weapons for Ukraine 🚨
In a significant escalation, Moscow has issued a warning after President Joe Biden's approval of Ukraine’s use of US-supplied long-range missiles. The decision comes amid heightened global tensions, as North Korea joins Russia in supporting its stance against Ukraine. 🇷🇺🛑
As Russia intensifies its assault on Ukrainian residential areas 🏚️, Putin reiterates Russia's readiness to use nuclear weapons if necessary ☢️. Experts suggest the timing of this shift may be too late to alter the course of the ongoing war. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces have made their first strike into Russian territory using Western-made missiles. ✈️💥
🌱 Brazil's Soybean Planting Surge 🌾
Brazilian farmers are rapidly advancing their soybean planting, with 80% of the expected area already seeded as of last Thursday 📊. Although concerns about reduced rainfall in certain regions persist 🌧️, the crop remains on track. Additionally, Brazil has made significant progress on its first corn crop 🌽, with 86% planted compared to 72% last week.
🌾 Improved US Wheat Conditions 🌾
Rainfall has brought a much-needed boost to winter wheat conditions in the High Plains 🌧️. Crop ratings for wheat have risen to 49% good to excellent, marking the best conditions since 2019 📈. Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas have seen significant week-over-week improvements 🌾.
🌱 Corteva’s Hybrid Wheat Seed Could Revolutionize Yields 🚜
Corteva announces a game-changing hybrid wheat seed that could boost yields by up to 20% in dry conditions 🌾🌞. This new non-GMO seed technology will initially be rolled out in North America by 2027 and aims to improve wheat production without additional land or resources 🌍.
📉 US Soybean & Wheat Shipments Update 🚢
US soybean exports declined last week 📉, with a -8.4% decrease in shipments compared to the previous week. However, corn exports were on the rise, with shipments up +37% from last year 📊. Wheat shipments were down significantly, falling by -48% compared to last year 🚜. Flash sales were reported with soybean oil, soybeans, and soybean meal sold to international buyers 🛳️.
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📊 Funds Expand Net-Long Positions in Corn
Last week, large money managers substantially increased their net-long positions in corn:
Net buyers of 97k corn contracts, with a total net long of 100k contracts—the largest since February 2023.
Despite the buying spree, the Dec24 corn contract gained only 12 cents during the reporting week.
Funds were also net buyers of 17k soybean contracts and sellers of 18k SRW wheat contracts. 📉
🌍 China’s Tax Rebate Changes Impact Soybean Oil Prices
China plans to reduce or eliminate export tax rebates on various products, including used cooking oil:
The removal of tax rebates for used cooking oil, widely used in biofuel production, has raised US soybean oil prices.
US soybean oil futures climbed 2% on Friday, reflecting expectations of increased domestic usage.
Chinese used cooking oil imports have been undercutting US farmers, with concerns about fraudulent imports raised earlier this year. These changes will take effect December 1.
🏭 US Soybean Crush Hits Record High
The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported an all-time high US soybean crush for October:
199.96 million bushels processed, up 12.8% from September and 5.4% from October 2023.
End-of-month soybean oil stocks rose slightly to 1.07 billion pounds, below the trade estimate of 1.09 billion pounds.
Strong crush numbers signal robust domestic demand for soybeans and soybean oil. 🌱
🌍 Summit Carbon Pipeline Gains Approval in North Dakota
Summit Carbon Solutions has secured regulatory approval for its carbon pipeline route in North Dakota:
The permit was initially denied in 2023 but was granted after Summit made changes to its proposal.
Summit has secured 82% of easements in North Dakota but still lacks eminent domain authority.
The company plans to reapply for a permit in South Dakota this week after a prior denial. 🌎
🚢 Disappointing Export Sales
US export sales were lower across the board last week:
Soybeans: 1.6mmt (57 million bushels), down 24% week-over-week and from the 4-week average. China was the largest buyer.
Corn: 1.3mmt (52 million bushels), down 53% week-over-week and 52% from the 4-week average. Unknown destinations topped the buyers.
Wheat: 380,100mt (14 million bushels), a slight +1% week-over-week but -17% from the 4-week average. South Korea was the largest buyer.
🌾 Rain Boosts US Winter Wheat
Rainfall across US HRW wheat country has improved soil moisture and crop conditions:
Rain was observed in Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, and Missouri overnight, following substantial rainfall last weekend.
Winter wheat ratings improved last week and are expected to improve further with the recent rains in HRW and SRW wheat areas.
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🌾 Soybean and Wheat Futures Weakening
Soybean futures are moving closer to August lows, with the Jan24 soybean contract dropping 20 cents per bushel on Thursday, hovering around 20 cents from its August low. Factors such as a massive Brazilian crop, the US/China trade tension, and global supply pressures continue to weigh heavily on prices.
Similarly, the Dec24 HRW wheat contract dropped 8 cents and is trading just 9 cents above its August low. However, there is some optimism as US winter wheat conditions are likely to improve with the recent rainfall.
🏛️ Trump Administration Changes
President-elect Donald Trump has nominated Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to lead the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). The nomination is expected to face Senate challenges, especially given Kennedy’s controversial stances on food safety, environmental policies, and vaccination.
Trump’s tariff proposals continue to attract attention. Jamie Dimon, CEO of J.P. Morgan Chase, believes tariffs are a necessary tool for addressing unfair trade but emphasized that their implementation needs to be cautious. Despite this, Dimon was not invited to serve in Trump’s administration.
🔋 US Ethanol Production Hits Record High
The US ethanol production reached a record-high last week, with output hitting 1.11 million barrels per day. This exceeded previous records set earlier this year. Ethanol stocks also saw a slight increase of 5% year-over-year. However, implied gasoline demand saw a slight dip of 1.1% compared to the same week last year.
🌎 Brazil Adjusts Crop Estimates
Brazil's Conab (National Supply Company) has made slight adjustments to its 2024 corn and soybean crop estimates. The forecast for corn production stands at 119.8mmt, a small increase, with soybean production remaining at 166.1mmt. Exports for both crops have been adjusted slightly as well.
💡 Farmers Turning to Generic Chemicals
With a decline in farm income, farmers are increasingly turning to generic pesticides and fungicides to cut costs. This shift could financially impact large chemical companies like Bayer, Syngenta, and Corteva, particularly as patents on active ingredients expire. Bayer's stock reached a 20-year low due to these changes.
🌧️ US Drought Conditions Update
Drought conditions continue to persist across a large portion of the Corn Belt, although some relief came last week with rainfall across Ohio, Kentucky, Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri. Drought conditions in Nebraska and Southeast Wisconsin worsened, but significant improvements were noted in the Southern High Plains, including Kansas and Oklahoma.
📦 USDA Flash Sales
US soybean export sales were reported at 176,000mt (6 million bushels) for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year. This brings the year-to-date soybean export sales up by 17% compared to last year.
*Correction at the top of the episode- Today's date is Thursday, November 14th.
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🏛️ Impact of Trump's Trade Policies on US Agriculture
US farmers are unsure about the effects of Donald Trump's trade policies on soybean exports and biodiesel production. While tariffs may limit soybean exports to China, they could also lead to increased demand for US soybean oil due to restrictions on imported oils, particularly for biodiesel production. There's optimism that Trump's policies might curb imported biofuel feedstocks from receiving 45Z tax credits, potentially expanding the US crushing capacity. However, higher construction costs due to tariffs may hinder this expansion.
🌽 Flash Sales of Corn
US corn exporters reported two flash sales on Wednesday:
401,357mt (16 million bushels) of corn to Mexico for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
290,820mt (11 million bushels) of corn to unknown destinations for the same delivery period.
🇦🇷 Argentina's Grain Crop Forecast
Argentina's Rosario Grain Exchange raised its forecast for the 2024/2025 soybean crop to 53mmt - 53.5mmt, up from a previous estimate of 52mmt - 53mmt. The increase was due to favorable rainfall in October, improving planting conditions. However, the exchange lowered its corn crop estimate to 50mmt - 51mmt, down from 51mmt - 52mmt due to drought earlier in the year. Additionally, the wheat crop estimate was cut to 18.8mmt, down from 19.5mmt, reflecting the ongoing dry conditions.
🏢 ADM Faces Accounting Troubles
ADM's (Archer Daniels Midland) compliance chief, Ben Bard, is departing amid ongoing accounting issues. These accounting errors were discovered earlier this year and led to an SEC investigation, the resignation of the CFO, and $12 billion in market value losses. Bard was responsible for global compliance and internal audits. The company is still working to resolve these issues.
📊 Consumer Prices in October
US consumer prices rose 0.2% in October, bringing the annual increase to 2.6%, up slightly from 2.4% in September. Housing costs contributed significantly to the increase, rising by 4.9% over the past year. Futures markets are pricing in about an 80% chance of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by another quarter point at its December meeting, despite concerns over potential inflationary pressures from Trump's policies.
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🌿 Lee Zeldin Nominated for EPA Head
President-Elect Trump's choice to lead the EPA has sparked controversy. Lee Zeldin, former New York congressman, will focus on deregulation to boost American business and energy dominance. Critics, including environmental groups, argue that Zeldin is unqualified and will harm environmental policies, especially concerning biofuels. His nomination will require Senate confirmation.
📉 ADM Faces Financial Reporting Delays
ADM (Archer Daniels Midland) has requested more time to file its third-quarter financial report after accounting errors were discovered. This follows a previous delay earlier this year, marking a rough period for the company, which has seen its stock fall by 29% year-to-date. These errors have affected financial data spanning six years.
🌾 Russia's Grain Production Forecast Includes Occupied Ukrainian Land
Russia's agriculture ministry forecasts a 130 million metric ton (mmt) grain harvest for 2024, a 12% drop from 2023. This includes grain from Ukrainian regions under Russian control. There are concerns that these figures may not reflect the true harvest numbers, as Russia allegedly includes Ukrainian data in a bid to hide its losses from the ongoing conflict.
🌾 US Winter Wheat Conditions Improve
US winter wheat conditions improved due to recent rainfall. As of Sunday, 44% of the crop was rated good to excellent, up from 41% the prior week. Kansas saw the biggest improvement in conditions, along with Oklahoma, Texas, and Nebraska. The crop is 91% planted, near the average of 93%.
🌱 US Row Crop Harvest Nears Completion
The US corn harvest reached 95% completion, the fastest pace since 2005, while soybeans were 96% harvested. North Carolina and Colorado are the only states running below-average harvest pace. Meanwhile, Louisiana, Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota have completed their harvests.
📦 US Exports: Soybean Shipments Decline Slightly
Soybean exports were slightly down last week at 2.3mmt, but still up by 13% compared to the same week last year. Corn shipments also saw a slight decline but were up by 10% versus the same week last year. Wheat shipments were stronger, increasing by 69% from the prior week.
📈 Flash Sales for US Corn
US corn export sales continue to perform well, with a flash sale of 110,500mt (4 million bushels) to Mexico for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year. Corn sales are up 48% compared to last year, reflecting strong international demand.
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0:00 South American Crop Prospects
5:55 Drought in Cattle Country
7:48 US Dollar and Commodities
9:41 Bitcoin and Mystery Buyer(s)
🌱 Brazilian Soybean and Corn Planting Ahead of Last Year's Pace
Soybean planting in Brazil is progressing faster than last year. By last Thursday, 67% of the soybean area was planted, compared to 61% at the same time last year. AgRural reports that planting is moving smoothly across most of Brazil, with only a few areas affected by limited rainfall. First corn planting in Brazil is also ahead of schedule at 72% planted, although slightly below last year’s 76%.
🌱 Argentine Soybean Planting
Argentina’s soybean planting is expected to continue at a brisk pace, supported by recent rainfall across the country. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports 8% of the anticipated soybean acreage has been planted, with 2.1 million acres planted over the past week. The forecast indicates hot and dry weather conditions in the coming days, which should allow for continued planting progress.
🐄 US Cattle Herd Expansion Impacted by Drought
US cattle herd rebuilding has slowed due to the persistence of drought in key cattle-producing regions. While many expected the herd to expand following spring moisture, 50% of US cattle are currently located in drought-stricken areas. This has kept producers from holding back bred females for expansion. Beef prices are surging to historic highs, driven by limited cattle supplies.
💵 Dollar Strengthens Post-Trump Victory
The US dollar has surged following Donald Trump's presidential victory. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gained 0.7% to its highest level since November 2023. Expectations that Trump's trade policies would strengthen the dollar have been a key driver, alongside the quarter-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve last week. The yen and euro both saw declines against the dollar. With Trump’s proposed policies, the dollar could continue to appreciate, especially with trade war concerns.
💰 Bitcoin Sets New Highs, Eyes $100,000
Bitcoin reached a new all-time high on Monday, surpassing $88,000. There is growing speculation that it could hit $100,000 by the end of the year, partly driven by Trump’s victory and the rise in CME futures trading for Bitcoin. Although Trump’s potential focus on cryptocurrencies is uncertain, the recent surge in Bitcoin’s price is a key development for traders in the space.
Conclusion:
The Brazilian and Argentine planting seasons are progressing positively, which may affect global soybean supply. US cattle producers are facing challenges with expanding their herds due to drought, driving beef prices higher. The US Dollar and Bitcoin markets are reacting strongly to Trump’s victory, signaling potential continued volatility and growth in these assets. The agricultural market continues to respond to weather patterns and trade policy developments, with implications for both global grain production and US livestock markets. Stay tuned as these market developments unfold!
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Here's a summary of the latest developments affecting agriculture and commodities markets:
🌾 USDA Cuts Corn and Soybean Production Estimates
USDA reduced its soybean yield estimate to 51.7 bpa from 53.1 bpa, cutting production by 121 million bushels. This was a surprise to the market. Demand estimates for soybeans were also lowered, particularly for crush and exports, though the reductions in supply were partially offset.
The corn yield estimate was adjusted down slightly to 183.1 bpa from 183.8 bpa, with no change in demand estimates for corn.
🌍 Trump Administration Update
Robert Lighthizer, the former US Trade Representative, has not yet been invited to return to his post in the new administration, despite expectations. He played a key role in the China trade war and the renegotiation of NAFTA. Speculation continues that he may take on a different cabinet role, such as Treasury Secretary or Commerce Secretary. Meanwhile, China's top ambassador to the US has reiterated that tariffs benefit no one, signaling ongoing tensions in trade relations.
🌱 California Climate Rules Update
California's Air Resources Board approved new climate rules that could impact fuel prices significantly. The plan raises emissions reduction targets, supports zero-emission vehicle charging infrastructure, and removes incentives for methane capture on dairy farms. Environmental groups have criticized the move, especially its potential to increase fuel prices by up to 65 cents per gallon.
📊 "The Funds" Shift to Net-Long in Corn
Large money managers (the funds) moved to a net-long position in corn, buying 39,000 contracts. This is the first net-long position in corn since August 2023, a dramatic shift from a record net-short position earlier in the year. Funds were also net buyers of soybeans and SRW wheat.
📉 Moody's Lowers ADM Credit Outlook
Moody's downgraded its credit outlook for ADM due to continued accounting errors. Despite the company maintaining an A2 rating, this downgrade reflects ongoing issues with financial reporting that have already led to significant market value loss for the company.
🌧️ Weekend Precipitation in Hard Red Winter Wheat Areas
Substantial precipitation of 1" to 3" was recorded across hard red winter wheat areas in Kansas, Colorado, Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle. While this brings some relief, HRW wheat futures remain under technical pressure due to poor crop ratings, exacerbated by dry conditions earlier in the season.
📦 Flash Sales Reported by USDA
US exporters reported several flash sales last Friday, including:
107,000mt of soybeans to China
132,000mt of soybeans to unknown destinations
200,490mt of corn to unknown destinations
These sales contribute to strong export performance for both soybeans and corn, further supporting the market.
Conclusion:
USDA's crop adjustments and ongoing political developments add to the market's volatility. Traders are watching closely, as both domestic production and global trade dynamics shift. The Trump administration's potential moves on tariffs and trade, especially with China, could keep agriculture markets in flux. Stay tuned for updates on trade policies and crop conditions as the year progresses! 🌽🌍
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🌱 Soybean Market Rally
Soybean oil futures have played a significant role in a recent rally in the soybean market. The December bean oil contract gained 4.3% on Thursday after a 3% increase on Wednesday. This surge is attributed to expected policies from a Trump administration that may lead to greater domestic usage of soybean oil, especially with anticipated tariffs on imports of used cooking oil and Brazilian sugar ethanol.
Soybean futures also saw a sharp increase, with the January 2025 contract gaining nearly 23 cents per bushel.
🇨🇳 China's $1.4 Trillion Stimulus Package
China announced a $1.4 trillion stimulus package aimed at local governments facing "hidden" debt strains. This move is seen as an effort to counterbalance the negative impacts of previous stimulus measures, particularly those from the 2008 global financial crisis. Traders had largely anticipated such measures to stabilize the economy.
🌾 USDA Crop Production Estimates
Preliminary estimates from the USDA indicate an increase in corn acreage for next year, projected at 92 million acres, up from 90.7 million this year.
Soybean acreage is forecasted to decrease to 85 million acres from 87.1 million, while wheat plantings are expected to remain stable at 46 million acres.
The combined acreage for corn, soybeans, and wheat is anticipated to fall to a three-year low.
📊 Upcoming USDA Reports
The USDA's monthly Crop Production and WASDE report is set to be released today at 11:00 AM CST. Expectations include marginal downward revisions to corn and soybean yield estimates, which could lead to slight reductions in carryout estimates. Analysts believe demand estimates for corn, particularly for ethanol and exports, might be too low.
🌍 Strong U.S. Export Sales
U.S. corn export sales reached 2.8 million metric tons (109 million bushels), surpassing expectations and marking an 18% increase from the previous week.
Net soybean sales were reported at 2 million metric tons (75 million bushels), down 10% from last week but up 10% from the previous four-week average, with China being the largest buyer. Net wheat sales stood at 374,700 metric tons (14 million bushels), with Mexico as the top buyer.
🌧️ Drought Monitor Update
Recent rainfall has improved drought conditions in many areas of the Corn Belt, especially in Missouri, Iowa, and Wisconsin. However, drought conditions worsened in parts of Kentucky, Ohio, and Michigan.
Current drought status:
Corn: 71%
Soybeans: 63%
Winter Wheat: 57%
Spring Wheat: 41%
Cattle: 54%
📉 Corteva Shares Decline
Shares of Corteva plummeted by as much as 7% to $57.45 due to a lowered earnings outlook, driven by planting issues in Argentina caused by stunt disease and dry weather. Despite the decline, the company's stock is still up about 20% year-to-date.
💵 Federal Reserve Rate Cut
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25% on Thursday, a decision that was unanimously approved and anticipated by markets. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated the cut aims to strengthen the economy and labor market while addressing inflation. There is speculation that another quarter-point cut may come in December, followed by a pause in January to assess the effects of current monetary policies.
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0:00 Election and Grain Markets
3:04 SD Voters Shoot Down Pipeline
4:34 US Dollar / Bitcoin
8:06 Stock Market / Fed
9:34 Ethanol Production
Here's the latest update on the agricultural landscape and market reactions following Donald Trump's return to the presidency! 🇺🇸📈
🌾 Uncertainty in Agricultural Trade
With Donald Trump back in the White House, concerns about a potential trade war with China are causing volatility in the grain markets. Initially, markets plummeted early Wednesday but managed to recover later in the day. During Trump's first term, U.S. soybean shipments to China dropped by approximately 79% due to tariffs imposed on Chinese goods. Trump has recently proposed new tariffs, including a 10% to 20% tariff on all imports and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods. Despite these concerns, a majority of farmers support Trump, hoping for a change to address high input costs, low prices, and increasing equipment expenses.
🏞️ South Dakota Repeals Carbon Pipeline Law
South Dakota voters have decided to repeal Referred Law 21, which regulated how counties managed carbon pipelines. Approximately 60% of the population supported the repeal. This decision is a setback for Summit Carbon Solutions, which planned to construct a pipeline across the state. Summit plans to reapply for a permit in South Dakota later this month, but the repeal complicates the approval process.
💵 Market Reactions Post-Election
Trump's victory led to a surge in the dollar index, which rose 1.7% to 105.09, marking its highest level since early July. This increase is attributed to expectations around Trump's policies related to immigration, taxes, and tariffs.
Bitcoin also experienced impressive gains, surpassing $75,000 and setting a new all-time high, driven by optimism regarding economic policies.
The stock market reacted positively, with all three major indexes hitting record highs:
Dow Jones: +3.6%
S&P 500: +2.5%
Nasdaq: +3%
U.S. Treasury yields surged, with the 10-year yield rising to a four-month high of 4.479%. The VIX, which measures market volatility, fell to a six-week low of 16.27.
📊 Ethanol Production Continues to Rise
U.S. ethanol production increased for the sixth consecutive week, reaching 1.1 million barrels per day, up 2.1% week-on-week and 5% year-over-year.
Ethanol stocks were reported at 22.02 million barrels, reflecting a 1.1% increase compared to the previous week and a 4.8% increase from last year.
Implied gasoline demand fell by 3.6% compared to the previous week but was up 1.5% compared to the same week last year.
Conclusion
The agricultural sector is navigating a complex landscape following the election, with potential trade implications and changing policies that could significantly impact farmers and markets. As developments unfold, staying informed will be crucial for stakeholders in the agricultural and financial sectors! 🌾📉
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0:00 Trump, Markets, Soybeans
3:28 China and Other Commodities
5:44 Farmer Sentiment
7:27 ADM is in Trouble
8:29 Who is Unknown?
Here's the latest on the market and agricultural landscape following Donald Trump's election victory! 🗳️📊
🇺🇸 Trump Secures the Presidency
Donald Trump has won the U.S. presidency, successfully capturing crucial battleground states including Pennsylvania, Georgia, Wisconsin, and North Carolina.
Trump is also leading in Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada as of early Wednesday morning.
Contrary to predictions, he won Iowa by a notable 14 points.
📈 Market Reactions
S&P 500 futures have surged over 2%, reaching fresh all-time highs, indicating strong investor confidence.
The U.S. Dollar has strengthened sharply, while U.S. Treasuries are trading lower.
Bitcoin has also reached new all-time highs overnight.
Despite the election results, soybean prices are lower but not collapsing, showing some resilience.
📉 Commodity Pressure
Other commodities are feeling pressure following Trump's victory, particularly due to concerns about new tariffs on Chinese imports, which could impact demand for commodities such as crude oil, copper, iron ore, steel, and soybeans.
The strengthening dollar further contributes to the downward pressure on these commodity markets.
🌾 US Farmer Sentiment Rises
Surprisingly, U.S. farmer sentiment rose ahead of the election, with Purdue University's CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index climbing to 115 in October, a significant increase from September.
This level hasn't been seen since December 2023. Farmers are cautiously optimistic about improving economic conditions but still express concerns about rising input costs and declining market prices.
Over half of respondents indicated their financial situations are worse than last year, reflecting ongoing challenges in the agricultural sector.
📉 ADM Faces Accounting Issues
Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) is experiencing ongoing accounting irregularities, prompting revisions of its 2023 results and earlier quarters.
The company's shares dropped 6%, marking their lowest levels since January 2021 and erasing about $1.6 billion in market value. Since January, ADM has lost nearly $12 billion in market value due to these accounting issues, which also led to the resignation of its CFO.
The company is facing difficulties amid low crop prices and declining profits from soybean processing.
🌽 Flash Sale Report
USDA reported a flash sale of corn, with exporters selling 124,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
Cumulatively, corn export sales are up 41% compared to the same period last year.
Conclusion
The market landscape is shifting rapidly in light of the election results, with significant implications for commodities, farmer sentiment, and agricultural economics. As developments unfold, staying informed will be crucial for na
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0:00 Election Volatility?
2:39 Lower Soybean Yield Estimate
6:38 US Harvest Update
9:22 Brazil Planting Update
10:54 US Grain Shipments
11:51 Flash Sales
Here’s the latest update on the agricultural market and economic dynamics!
Dollar and Treasury Yield Movements
Increased skepticism regarding a Trump victory has led to a weaker dollar and declining Treasury yields on Monday.
The 10-year Treasury bond yield dropped by up to 12 basis points to 4.26%, while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell by as much as 0.7%.
Polling data indicating a lead for Kamala Harris over Trump in Iowa triggered these market moves. Investors had previously positioned themselves for a Trump victory, expecting his policies to boost economic growth and inflation.
Corn and Soybean Crop Forecasts Adjusted
StoneX has lowered its forecasts for U.S. corn and soybean crops:
Corn yield is now estimated at 183.7 bushels per acre (bpa), down from 184 bpa, with total production estimated at 15.193 billion bushels.
Soybean yield is projected at 52.6 bpa, down from 53.5 bpa, with total production at 4.539 billion bushels.
Harvest Progress
Both corn and soybean harvests are nearing completion and are running ahead of schedule:
Corn: 91% harvested nationally through Sunday, compared to 81% the previous week and 75% on average. This is the fastest harvest since 2012.
Soybeans: 94% harvested nationally, compared to 89% the prior week and 85% on average. This pace ties with 2022, marking the fastest since 2005.
Winter Wheat Conditions
Winter wheat conditions are currently the second worst since 1986, with only 41% rated good to excellent. Despite low ratings, only 23% of the crop is rated poor to very poor. The crop was 87% planted through Sunday, with forecasted rainfall expected to improve conditions.
Brazilian Soybean Planting
Brazilian farmers are making significant progress in soybean planting:
As of last Thursday, 54% of the expected area has been planted, up from 36% the prior week. This pace is the second fastest on record for this time of year.
Export Activity
USDA reported strong soybean shipments last week:
2.2mmt (79mil bushels) of soybeans were inspected for export, down 18% from the previous week but slightly above last year's levels.
Corn shipments totaled 779,078mt (31mil bushels), down 7.3% week-over-week but up 36% from last year.
Wheat shipments fell to 193,523mt (7mil bushels), a 34% decline from the previous week but up 69% year-on-year.
Flash Sales Activity
USDA reported three flash sales on Monday:
150,000 metric tons (6mil bushels) of corn to Mexico for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
120,000 metric tons (5mil bushels) of corn to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
132,000 metric tons (5mil bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
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Here’s the latest on the agricultural markets and trade dynamics! 🌾📊
🌍 Trade Tensions and China's Position
With the possibility of a trade war on the horizon, China is strategically positioned to impose tariffs on U.S. farm products.
Since 2018, when China enacted a 25% tariff on U.S. soybeans, corn, and other items, there has been a significant shift toward imports from other countries, especially Brazil.
U.S. soybean imports have decreased from 40% in 2016 to just 18% this year, while Brazil's share has surged to 76%.
However, to secure supplies ahead of the upcoming election, Chinese buyers have increased U.S. soybean imports, which are up 9% year-over-year through September.
Both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have expressed intentions to address unfair trade practices by China.
🇧🇷 Brazilian Soybean Planting Update
Brazilian farmers are ahead of schedule in planting soybeans, with 52.9% of the expected area planted, up from 50.6% last year.
StoneX has raised its forecast for Brazil's soybean crop to 166.2 million metric tons (mmt), an increase from its previous estimate of 165.03 mmt.
The first corn crop is projected at 24.9 mmt, and the second at 101.5 mmt, totaling 128.5 mmt for all corn production.
🌧️ Weather Patterns in the US
The U.S. radar is showing active weather this morning with rain moving across parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana.
Heavy rain totals were reported over the weekend in Oklahoma and eastern Kansas, with additional rainfall expected in Missouri, Iowa, and Wisconsin.
The forecast indicates a wet pattern for the central U.S. Corn Belt, which is expected to help improve the situation on the Mississippi River. Projections suggest levels will rise above the "restrictive" zone by next Tuesday.
📈 Funds and Market Position
"The Funds" significantly reduced their net short position in the corn market last week:
As of October 29, large money managers were net buyers of 52,000 corn contracts, marking the smallest net short position since August 2023.
Conversely, funds were net sellers of 4,000 soybean contracts and 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat.
📦 Flash Sales Activity
The USDA reported several flash sales on Friday:
132,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans sold to China for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
781,322 metric tons (31 million bushels) of corn sold to Mexico, with 715,800 metric tons (28 million bushels) for the 2024/2025 marketing year and 65,532 metric tons (3 million bushels) for 2025/2026.
Additionally, 198,000 metric tons (7 million bushels) of soybeans sold to unknown destinations and 30,000 metric tons of soybean oil sold to India.
Conclusion
As trade dynamics evolve and weather conditions play a critical role in harvest outcomes, the agricultural market remains sensitive to both domestic and international influences. Keep an eye on these developments as they could significantly impact future pricing and supply chains! 🌱📈
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📉📈 Soybean Futures Rebound After Decline
Soybean futures have closed higher for two straight sessions following declines ahead of November First Notice Day:
Farmers have been weighing whether to price or roll their November basis contracts, leading to some market volatility.
A bounce after First Notice Day is typical, and the Jan25 contract managed to avoid retesting its August low.
Private estimates suggest that "the funds" remain net short by about 60k contracts as of yesterday’s close.
💧 US Drought Conditions Worsen in the Corn Belt
The USDA's latest drought monitor reveals worsening conditions across the Corn Belt and High Plains:
75% of the Corn Belt is experiencing some level of drought, up from 66% last week.
This is the highest level of drought impact on corn and soybean production since 2012.
In the High Plains, minimal rainfall and above-normal temperatures have expanded drought conditions.
🔢 US Areas Experiencing Drought:
Corn: 81%
Soybeans: 73%
Winter Wheat: 62%
Spring Wheat: 40%
Cattle: 62%
🚜 Strong US Soybean and Corn Export Sales
US export sales for soybeans and corn showed strength last week:
Soybean sales: 2.3mmt (84 million bushels), up 6% from last week and 39% from the prior 4-week average. China was the largest buyer.
Corn sales: 2.3mmt (92 million bushels), despite a 35% weekly decline, were still 7% above the 4-week average, with unknown destinations leading purchases.
Wheat sales: 411,400mt (15 million bushels), down 23% from last week and 14% below the 4-week average. Mexico was the largest buyer.
🌱 Brazilian Crop Outlook: Record Soybean Production Expected
Rabobank and Conab have both released forecasts for Brazil’s soybean crop:
Rabobank: Expects 1.5% increase in planted acres to 116 million acres, with a record crop of 167mmt, up 9.2% from last season.
Conab: Projects a slightly higher 2.8% increase in planted acres.
Despite current dry conditions slowing planting, Rabobank has not revised its production estimate. Meanwhile, Brazil’s corn crop is expected to reach 125mmt, a 2.5% increase over last season.
🌞 Argentina’s Soybean Shift Amid Hot and Dry Conditions
The USDA’s office in Argentina estimates a 52mmt soybean crop, slightly higher than the USDA’s 51mmt forecast:
Argentine farmers are shifting from corn to soybeans due to concerns over stunt disease and tighter margins.
With lower production costs, soybeans are seen as a safer bet this season.
Hot and dry conditions through December could impact production, but increased soybean crush is expected due to higher production and imports.
🛢️ Flash Sale of Soybean Cake & Meal
The USDA reported a flash sale of 150,000mt of soybean cake and meal to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year:
So far this year, 926,000mt of soybean cake and meal have been sold for delivery through flash sales.
🏢 US Jobless Claims Fall to Five-Month Low
US jobless claims dropped to 216,000, the lowest since May:
Earlier spikes were driven by Hurricanes Helene and Milton and a strike at Boeing.
Job cuts totaled 55,600 in October, down 24% from September. Despite this, year-to-date cuts are 3.7% higher than the same period last year.
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0:00 RFK Jr USDA Overhaul
5:17 MF Global Anniversary
9:04 Rains are Back
11:45 Ethanol Production is STRONG
12:59 China, Russia, Soybeans
13:48 Biofuel Money
14:34 Flash Sales
🚜 Potential Role of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in USDA
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has stated that if Donald Trump is elected president, he has been promised control of the USDA. Kennedy aims to overhaul U.S. agricultural policy, focusing on benefits for farmers, consumers, and the environment.
His proposals include:
Providing relief to small farmers.
Promoting sustainable and regenerative farming practices.
Banning certain agricultural chemicals.
For more details, watch his promotional video on YouTube.
📅 Anniversary of MF Global's Bankruptcy
Today marks 13 years since MF Global went bankrupt, one of the largest clearing firms in the futures industry. CEO Jon Corzine misused customer funds for risky sovereign debt trades, leading to insolvency. The bankruptcy was the 11th largest in U.S. history, leaving many customers with missing funds.
🌧️ Return of Rains to the US Corn Belt
Rain has returned to the US Corn Belt, with active radar over South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, and Wisconsin. Recent rainfall has helped alleviate dry conditions, but 76% of U.S. corn areas are still experiencing drought.
Projections indicate little improvement in Mississippi River water levels through mid-November.
🌽 Ethanol Production Update
US ethanol production rose for the fifth consecutive week, reaching 1.082 million barrels per day:
This marks a 4% increase compared to the same week last year. Ethanol stocks are at 21.8 million barrels, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous week but an increase year-over-year. Implied gasoline demand is also up by 3.6% compared to the previous week.
🇨🇳 China's Shift Towards Russian Soybeans
China is looking to increase its reliance on Russian soybeans to diversify suppliers and reduce dependency on U.S. imports. Despite Russia producing only 6.8 million metric tons of soybeans in the last season (less than 2% of global production), China imported 99.4 million metric tons of soybeans last season.
🌱 USDA's Biofuel Initiative
The USDA is distributing $239 million to enhance biofuel availability:
$39 million in grants will help construct and improve biofuel infrastructure across 18 states. $200 million is allocated for developing bio-based technologies, aimed at promoting energy independence and providing cleaner fuel options.
📦 Flash Sales Report
USDA reported multiple flash sales:
132,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans sold to China for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
132,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans sold to unknown destinations.
273,048 metric tons (11 million bushels) of corn sold
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0:00 CME is an FCM
4:05 Soybeans and FND
6:30 Corn Belt Rains Return
7:36 China Stimulus Details
8:39 Gold ATH
10:00 Bitcoin Rally
Here's the latest update on the CME's new futures commission merchant, market conditions, and key economic developments! 📈🌾
📊 CME's New Futures Commission Merchant (FCM)
The CME has received approval to establish a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM). This FCM will enable market participants—traders, farmers, funds, etc.—to buy and sell futures directly on the CME marketplace, bypassing traditional brokers like RJO, StoneX, and ADM Investor Services. Critics argue this creates a conflict of interest since the CME would operate as both a futures exchange and a brokerage, potentially leading to excessive control over risk management and self-regulation. Proponents believe this move will streamline processes, lower costs for investors, and eliminate market inefficiencies.
🌱 Soybean Futures Update
First Notice Day for November soybean futures is tomorrow, with farmers needing to price or roll contracts by the close of business today. The days leading up to First Notice often see weakness in both futures and spreads, especially in years with large crops, though a "collapse" has not occurred this year.
🌧️ Weather Forecast for the Corn Belt
Rain is expected to return to the US Corn Belt this week, with light rain already observed in parts of North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota. The 5-day Euro model indicates widespread rainfall across much of Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Heavier rains are projected during the 5-10 day period, which should help alleviate some drought conditions. There may be minimal improvement to Mississippi River levels around November 9th.
🇨🇳 China's Fiscal Package Proposal
China is considering a fiscal package of over $1.4 trillion to revive its economy:
The package could represent more than 8% of China's GDP.
If Trump wins the presidency, a larger fiscal package might be announced due to anticipated economic challenges.
💰 Gold and Bitcoin Updates
Gold reached an all-time high of $2,766.73 per ounce, buoyed by falling job openings and investor focus on the upcoming US elections.
The precious metal has seen over a 33% increase this year, driven by central bank purchases and geopolitical tensions. Bitcoin surged to over $73,000, approaching its all-time high of $73,750:
Factors contributing to Bitcoin's rise include expectations of a soft economic landing, stock market gains, increasing demand for Bitcoin ETFs, and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Conclusion
As market dynamics shift with the CME's new FCM, farmers are navigating challenges with soybean contracts amid weather fluctuations and economic developments in China. The highs in gold and Bitcoin reflect investor sentiment amidst ongoing global tensions. Keep an eye on these trends
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Here's the latest update on soybean purchases, harvest progress, winter wheat conditions, and export sales! 🌾📉
🥜 Soybean Purchases Decline
Major grain traders like Cargill and Bunge have scaled back soybean purchases due to uncertainty surrounding the 45Z tax credit.
Biodiesel producers, who typically secure over 80% of their feedstocks for the first quarter by mid-October, have only obtained about 10% of those this year.
Delays in guidance from the Treasury Department for the upcoming tax credit, set to begin in January, are causing concern. The outcome of the upcoming election could also influence the future of this subsidy.
🌽 Rapid Harvest Progress
The US corn crop is progressing quickly, with 81% harvested nationally as of Sunday, compared to 65% the previous week and 64% on average. This marks the fastest harvest since 2012.
States that have harvested 85% or more include: Illinois, Kansas, Kentucky, Minnesota, Missouri, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas.
The US soybean harvest is also advanced, with 89% harvested nationally, up from 81% the prior week and 78% on average. This pace is the fastest since 2010.
States with 95% or more harvested include: Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota, Mississippi, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin.
🌾 Winter Wheat Conditions
Winter wheat conditions are reported as the second worst on record, with only 38% rated as good to excellent, below the 43% average.
This year’s ratings are worse across nearly all states compared to last year, with the exception of California, Kansas, Michigan, and Oregon.
As of Sunday, 80% of the winter wheat crop is planted, up from 73% the previous week but below the 84% average.
🇧🇷 Brazilian Soybean Planting
Brazilian farmers have made progress in soybean planting, reaching 36% of the expected area as of last Thursday, compared to 40% last year.
Despite lagging behind last year's pace, the area planted last week saw an 18% gain, with Mato Grosso accounting for half of the newly planted acres thanks to consistent rainfall.
52% of Brazil's first corn crop has been planted, slightly down from 53% last year.
🚢 US Export Sales
US soybean shipments declined last week but remain robust:
2.4mmt (88 million bushels) were inspected for export, down 6.1% from the previous week but up 17% year-over-year, with over 60% going to China.
Corn shipments totaled 823,664mt (32 million bushels), a drop of 18% from the previous week but an increase of 52% compared to last year.
Wheat shipments came in at 248,534mt (9 million bushels), down 7.4% from the prior week but up 25% year-over-year.
📦 Flash Sales Update
USDA reported two flash sales of corn on Monday:
124,000mt (5 million bushels) sold to Japan for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
120,000mt (5 million bushels) sold to unknown destinations for the same marketing year.
Since the beginning of October, exporters have sold 5.4mmt (211 million bushels) of corn via flash sales.
Conclusion
As harvests progress rapidly, traders are adapting to changes in soybean purchasing and the implications of potential tax credit changes. Meanwhile, strong export sales are supporting the market amid ongoing challenges related to drought conditions and planting delays. 🌽📈
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Here’s a rundown of the latest developments regarding the Summit Carbon Solutions pipeline, weather conditions in the Corn Belt, crude oil prices, export sales, and cattle on feed reports! 🌽💧
📜 South Dakota Pipeline Law Vote
South Dakota voters will decide on Referred Law 21 next week.
Support for the law would allow counties to impose surcharges on certain pipeline companies, providing tax relief to property owners affected by pipelines.
Opponents argue the law is deceptive and fails to address eminent domain issues, with concerns that it serves as a buyout for pipeline construction on their land.
Summit Carbon Solutions plans to reapply for a permit regardless of the vote outcome.
🌧️ Rain Expected in the Corn Belt
Rain is forecasted to return to the US Corn Belt starting Wednesday and Thursday.
Areas of Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, and Wisconsin are expected to see accumulated rainfall.
Widespread rainfall is anticipated during the 5-10 day period, which is crucial as 73% of US corn-growing areas are currently experiencing drought, the highest level since 2012.
Harvesting of corn and soybeans has been rapid due to dry conditions, and river levels on the Mississippi are expected to remain low through November 11th.
🛢️ Crude Oil Futures Decline
Crude oil futures are trading sharply lower, with the Dec24 WTI contract down nearly $4/barrel early in the week.
Recent Israeli attacks have focused on avoiding key Iranian oil infrastructure, maintaining Iran's oil industry operations as normal.
📦 US Export Sales Strong
USDA reported flash sales on Friday:
116,000mt (4 million bushels) of soybeans sold to China for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
136,000mt (5 million bushels) of corn sold to Mexico for the same marketing year.
US corn export sales for the current year are 34% ahead of last year's pace, with a modest projected year-over-year increase of 1.4%.
📈 Funds Adjust Positions
Funds have trimmed their net short positions in the corn market:
CFTC data shows that large money managers were net buyers of 20,000 contracts of corn, while they sold 18,000 contracts of soybeans and 4,000 contracts of SRW wheat.
🐄 Cattle on Feed Report
The latest Cattle on Feed report shows that as of October 1, the number of cattle on feed is at 100% of year-ago levels, matching expectations.
September placements were at 98% of year-ago levels, slightly above estimates, likely due to drought limiting grazing conditions.
Marketings last month were 102% of year-ago levels, indicating stable market fundamentals providing ongoing price support.
Conclusion
The upcoming vote on pipeline regulation, expected rainfall in the Corn Belt, fluctuations in crude oil prices, and strong export sales are pivotal factors currently influencing agricultural markets. As farmers deal with rapid harvests and storage challenges, attention remains on the economic and environmental implications of these developments. 🌾📊
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📉 Soybean Futures Decline
Soybean futures closed lower yesterday, despite reaching fresh two-week highs.
The nearby Nov24 contract peaked at $10.12 per bushel but settled around $9.96.
Downward pressure is continuing this morning, with calendar spreads also reversing after a brief rally.
First Notice Day for Nov24 futures is next Thursday, prompting farmers to price or roll contracts by Wednesday.
🌧️ Drought Conditions in the Corn Belt
USDA's weekly drought monitor shows:
While some areas received rainfall, much of the Corn Belt experienced below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures.
Approximately 88% of the Corn Belt is now facing some level of drought, a significant increase from 11% just three months ago.
Specific drought levels:
Corn: 76%
Soybeans: 68%
Winter Wheat: 58%
Spring Wheat: 37%
Cattle: 59%
🚀 Strong US Export Sales
Last week's export sales were robust:
Net soybean sales reached 2.2mmt (79 million bushels), the second-largest weekly total in over a year, with China as the largest buyer.
Net corn sales were reported at 3.6mmt (142 million bushels), a 62% increase from the previous week, with Mexico as the largest buyer.
Net wheat sales were at 532,900mt (20 million bushels), up 6% from the prior week.
📦 Additional Flash Sales Reported
USDA announced further flash sales on Thursday:
227,600mt (9 million bushels) of corn sold to Japan for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
165,000mt (6 million bushels) of corn to unknown destinations.
198,000mt (7 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations.
🌍 Geopolitical Concerns from J.P. Morgan
Jamie Dimon, CEO of J.P. Morgan Chase, expressed concerns that World War III may have begun.
He emphasizes that geopolitical risks—including the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East—pose a greater threat to the global economy than previously anticipated.
Dimon believes that the potential for nuclear conflict represents a significant danger, surpassing even the risks of climate change.
Conclusion
The agricultural market is facing downward pressure amid a rapidly progressing harvest, significant drought conditions, and robust export sales. Additionally, the geopolitical landscape presents rising concerns that could impact global economic stability. As markets react to these developments, it will be essential for stakeholders to stay informed and agile in their decision-making. 🌾📊
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0:00 US / Brazil / China
2:42 BRICS Grain Exchange?
5:19 Ethanol Production is STRONG
9:07 Argentina Weather
10:26 Flash Sales
Here’s a summary of the latest developments in international trade, agriculture, and ethanol production! 🌍🌾
🌐 US-Brazil Relations and Trade Concerns
The Biden administration is advising Brazil against joining China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). At the Bloomberg New Economy conference in São Paulo, Biden's trade negotiator emphasized the risks of such a partnership. While some Brazilian leaders view the BRI as an opportunity for new investments, others warn it could harm relations with the US and EU. Brazil's ag minister argues for joining the initiative to counter protectionist measures from the US and EU.
🌾 BRICS Grain Exchange Proposal
Russia is pushing for a BRICS grain exchange to stabilize trade among its member countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). This exchange aims to protect against price volatility and could extend to trading other commodities like gas, metals, and oil. A new cross-border payment system among BRICS nations is also under consideration, which would bypass the US dollar for easier trade.
🌽 US Ethanol Production
US ethanol production reached its second-highest level for this time of year, with a weekly output of 1.08 million barrels per day. This figure is up 3.7% from the previous week and 4.4% year-over-year. Ethanol stocks are reported at 22.2 million barrels, reflecting a slight decrease from the prior week but an increase compared to last year. Implied gasoline demand has also seen an uptick of 4.3% over the last four weeks compared to the same period last year.
🌧️ Rainfall Benefits in Argentina
Argentina has received much-needed rainfall, with major farming areas seeing between 1 to 3.5 inches. This moisture is critical for the upcoming wheat harvest in November and will help resume delayed planting of corn and soybeans.
The Rosario Grain Exchange has revised its estimates, projecting the wheat crop at 19.5 million metric tons and corn production between 51 million to 52 million metric tons.
📦 Flash Sales in US Ag Exports
USDA reported significant flash sales on Wednesday:
130,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans sold to China for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year.
100,000 metric tons (4 million bushels) of corn sold to unknown destinations for delivery during the same marketing year.
259,000 metric tons (10 million bushels) of soybeans sold to unknown destinations.
Conclusion
The global agricultural landscape is shifting with significant implications for trade dynamics, especially concerning US-Brazil relations and the potential impacts of the BRI. Meanwhile, US ethanol production is robust, and Argentina's rainfall is promising for upcoming crops. Flash sales in US ag exports indicate continued interest and demand, particularly from China, despite market uncertainties. 🌾📈
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🥜 US Soybean Exports and Market Concerns
US soybean exporters are racing to ship products ahead of a potential DT presidency.
Traders fear that if DT is elected, China could reinstate tariffs on US soybean imports, prompting some Chinese importers to shift to Brazilian soybeans starting January.
This pivot is narrowing the already limited US soybean export window.
Soybean export premiums have reached their highest level in 14 months due to low water levels on the Mississippi River, better demand prospects, and commercial entities potentially being caught off guard.
🌾 Cargill Restructuring and Executive Changes
Two senior executives at Cargill will retire at the end of the year as part of a restructuring effort.
This follows a disappointing fiscal year where less than one-third of its business units met earnings projections, resulting in profits falling to $2.48 billion, the lowest in nearly ten years.
Cargill's profits have been pressured by bumper global crops and a significant decline in US cowherd numbers, now at their lowest in seven decades.
💱 Goldman Sachs' Predictions on Currency Fluctuations
Goldman Sachs predicts that the euro could drop by 10% against the dollar if DT implements tariff hikes and significant domestic tax cuts.
Similarly, the yuan could fall by 12% under the same conditions.
Analysts believe these changes could benefit the US dollar, especially amid strong US earnings and speculation that the Federal Reserve may take a less aggressive stance on future rate cuts.
🌾 Russian Wheat Production Outlook
The 2025 Russian wheat crop is projected to be comparable to this year's production, with estimates ranging from 80 million to 85 million metric tons.
Unfavorable weather conditions are expected to impact next year's crop, with a predicted reduction in wheat acreage and yields.
☀️ Harvesting and Weather Forecast
US corn and soybean harvests are anticipated to wrap up quickly, with a mostly dry forecast for the Corn Belt this week.
Some areas in Missouri, Iowa, and Illinois may see limited rainfall, but overall conditions are expected to remain dry.
Better rain accumulation is forecast for the first week of November, which may benefit the final stages of harvest.
Currently, the Mississippi River is nearly 9 feet below normal, which could further restrict shipping in the coming days.
🚢 USDA Flash Sales
USDA reported a significant flash sale on Tuesday:
US exporters sold 359,500 metric tons (14 million bushels) of corn to Mexico for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year, with Mexico expected to be the top buyer of US corn this season.
Summary
The agricultural landscape is shifting with increased urgency in US soybean exports, ongoing market dynamics amid political uncertainties, and notable changes within major companies like Cargill. The forecasted weather patterns may affect the remaining harvests, while the Mississippi River's low water levels pose challenges for transportation. As markets react to potential tariffs and shifting demand, US producers are navigating a complex and evolving environment. 🌍🚜
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Here’s the latest on the corn and soybean harvests, storage challenges, and international market dynamics! 🌽🌱
🚜 Rapid Harvesting and Storage Shortage
Corn and soybean harvests are progressing rapidly, with corn at 65% harvested and soybeans at 81% harvested nationally as of Sunday.
This pace is the second fastest for corn in the last ten years and the fastest for soybeans since 2010.
The quick harvest is leading to storage shortages, as many farmers are still holding last season's grain while waiting for better prices.
Due to limited bin space, some grain handlers are storing corn outside, forcing farmers to sell their crops at near four-year low prices.
USDA projects record national average yields for both crops this year, exacerbating storage issues.
💰 Chinese Economic Stimulus
In an effort to bolster its struggling economy, Chinese banks have cut lending rates:
These rate cuts follow the People's Bank of China's decision to lower rates at the end of September.
The quarter-point reductions are aimed at encouraging borrowing among households and businesses, particularly to support the faltering property market.
If economic growth continues to slow, further rate cuts may be on the horizon.
🌧️ Brazilian Soybean Planting Delays
Brazilian soybean planting is lagging, with only 18% of the expected area planted as of last Thursday, compared to 30% last year.
The slow pace is particularly notable in Mato Grosso, Brazil’s top soybean-producing state.
Recent rainfall is expected to facilitate faster planting in the coming weeks.
As of last Thursday, 48% of Brazil’s first corn crop had been planted, up from 46% last year.
📈 Strong Soybean Shipments
US soybean shipments remained robust last week, with 2.4 million metric tons (89 million bushels) inspected for export during the week ending October 17.
This represents a 28% increase from the previous week but is down 7.4% compared to the same week last year.
Corn shipments also saw significant growth at 1 million metric tons (39 million bushels), which was a 97% increase from the previous week and 112% higher than the same week last year.
However, wheat shipments fell below pre-report expectations at 268,375 metric tons (10 million bushels), down 29% from the previous week but up 58% year-on-year.
📉 Flash Sales and Export Activity
USDA reported several flash sales on Monday:
169,926 metric tons (7 million bushels) of corn sold to Mexico for delivery during the 2024/2025 ma
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Here’s the latest update on US agricultural exports, market dynamics, and the broader economic context! 🌾📈
📊 Strong US Export Sales
Net corn sales reached 2.2 million metric tons (88 million bushels), marking the highest level in over a year and a half and exceeding pre-report expectations.
This figure represents an 82% increase from the previous week and a substantial rise from the prior 4-week average.
The largest corn buyer for the week was unknown destinations.
Net soybean sales totaled 1.7 million metric tons (63 million bushels), up 35% from the previous week and 16% from the prior 4-week average.
China emerged as the largest buyer for the week.
Net wheat sales were also robust at 504,100 metric tons (19 million bushels), which was at the upper end of expectations.
This print represented a 16% increase from the previous week and a 57% rise from the prior 4-week average, with Mexico being the largest buyer.
🚨 Flash Sales Report
USDA reported several flash sales on Friday:
21,000 metric tons of soybean oil sold to Mexico for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
125,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of corn sold to unknown destinations for delivery during the same marketing year.
292,800 metric tons (11 million bushels) of soybeans sold to unknown destinations.
📉 Increased Short Positions by Funds
According to CFTC data, as of October 15, "the Funds" have increased their net short position in the corn market:
They were net sellers of 73,000 contracts, the first instance of net selling in two months.
Net sellers of 22,000 contracts of soybeans, marking the first time since mid-August that they’ve shorted soybean contracts.
Conversely, funds were net buyers of 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat.
🌧️ Rainfall in Brazil
Rain is forecasted to accumulate in Brazil this week, with:
Light rains occurring in eastern soybean areas early this morning, followed by better coverage later in the week.
Both Euro and GFS models predict above-normal rainfall for many key soybean regions over the next 10 days, except for the far southern parts of the country.
💼 Economic Insights
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is urging global economies to limit fiscal spending:
They project that global public debt will reach $100 trillion by year-end, primarily driven by the US and China.
The IMF warns that if spending does not slow, public debt could equal the size of the global economy in the coming years.
Interest costs on the US national debt have reached their highest level in nearly 30 years:
The US Treasury spent $882 billion on net interest payments in the last fiscal year, averaging about $2.4 billion a day.
This amount represents 3.06% of GDP, the highest ratio since 1996, and has surpassed Defense Department spending for the first time in history.
In Summary
The agricultural export landscape shows promising activity with robust sales, while funds are adjusting their positions amid market volatility. Meanwhile, economic pressures mount as the IMF calls for fiscal restraint and rising interest costs add complexity to the national debt situation. The evolving weather patterns in Brazil also indicate potential impacts on soybean planting and yield, making it a critical period for market watchers. 🌱🌍
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🌊 Improving Basis Bids at the US Gulf
Corn and soybean basis bids at the US Gulf have shown improvement this week.
Soybean basis bids have become notably strong due to:
Improved export demand.
Falling water levels on the Mississippi River.
CIF October soybean barges are currently bid at 112 cents over the Nov24 CBOT contract, marking the strongest level since August 2023.
Corn demand, especially from Mexico, has also improved, contributing to the basis enhancement.
🌧️ Drought Conditions Update
The latest weekly drought monitor data indicates that:
The Corn Belt experienced mostly dry conditions last week, with some rain in the northern regions.
Drought conditions improved in northern Minnesota, but overall, nearly 83% of the Corn Belt is facing some level of drought.
The High Plains are still under a hot and dry weather pattern, with worsening drought conditions from South Dakota to Oklahoma.
Drought Statistics:
Corn: 62%
Soybeans: 54%
Winter Wheat: 52%
Spring Wheat: 32%
Cattle: 52%
🌱 Oversupply of Soybeans Amid Biofuel Production
Despite increased biofuel production (up 400% since 2021), soybean supplies are piling up due to:
Big crop yields and reduced export demand for US soybeans.
An influx of imported used cooking oil used for biofuel production.
Low water levels on the Mississippi River and the unexpected closure of ADM's crush plant in Iowa are further pressuring the soybean market.
🛢️ Ethanol Production Update
US ethanol production increased for the third consecutive week, reaching:
1.04 million barrels per day, a 3.8% increase from the same week last year.
Ethanol stocks reached 22.3 million barrels, the highest for this time of year.
However, implied gasoline demand saw a significant drop of 11% compared to last week, despite being slightly up from the same week last year.
📈 Flash Sales and Export Activity
USDA reported multiple flash sales on Thursday:
197,180 metric tons (8 million bushels) of corn sold to Mexico for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
101,000 metric tons (4 million bushels) of corn sold to unknown destinations for the same marketing year.
Since the start of the week, exporters have sold a total of 2.3 million metric tons (89 million bushels) of corn through flash sales.
In Summary-
The agricultural landscape is marked by improved basis bids, ongoing drought challenges, and a complex interplay of supply and demand in the soybean and corn markets. As harvest progresses and weather patterns evolve, all eyes will be on how these factors will influence market dynamics in the coming weeks! 🌾📊
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Here’s an engaging overview of the latest developments in agriculture, commodities, and the economic landscape! 🚜📉
📉 Job Cuts at John Deere
John Deere announced job cuts impacting approximately 300 workers in Iowa and Illinois. This decision is driven by:
Reduced demand for farm machinery amid lower grain prices.
Earlier this year, the company had already laid off over 2,000 workers due to similar concerns.
🌽 USDA Reports Major Flash Sale of Corn
In a significant development:
US exporters sold 1.6 million metric tons (64 million bushels) of corn to Mexico.
1.04 million metric tons (41 million bushels) are for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
579,120 metric tons (23 million bushels) for the 2025/2026 marketing year.
Additionally, there were sales of 332,000 metric tons (13 million bushels) of corn and 175,000 metric tons (6 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
These strong sales reflect end users recognizing value in US grains, potentially providing a price floor in the market. 📈
🌧️ Brazilian Weather Pattern Shifts
Brazil is expected to experience:
Above-normal rainfall over the next 10 days, signaling the return of a typical wet pattern.
This shift should facilitate faster soybean planting, which had been delayed due to previous dry conditions.
📉 Soybean Futures Decline Amid Tariff Concerns
Soybean futures took a hit:
The Nov24 soybean contract closed down 1.3% at approximately $9.78 per bushel, marking its lowest level since September 10.
Traders are apprehensive about potential increased tariffs, especially with a likely Trump presidency, which could shift China’s reliance from US soybeans to Brazilian exports.
📈 Bitcoin Surges with Political Shifts
Amidst the political landscape:
Bitcoin soared to around $67,869, its highest since late July.
The surge is attributed to the growing probability of Donald Trump being elected president, which is seen as favorable for the cryptocurrency market.
Year-to-date, Bitcoin is up over 60%, approaching its all-time high of $73,798.
In Summary
These developments highlight the interconnectedness of agriculture, trade policies, and financial markets. With the harvest season underway and potential shifts in global markets, all eyes will be on how these factors unfold in the coming weeks! 🌾💹
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📊 Study Warns: Tariff-Induced Trade War Could Harm US Farmers
A new economic study commissioned by the National Corn Growers Association and the American Soybean Association highlights the potential negative impact of a US-China trade war on US farmers. The study predicts:
US soybean exports to China could plummet by 52%, while corn exports could decline by 84%. 🌱
Brazil and Argentina are poised to benefit by capturing the lost market share as they compete with US exports.
Both the Trump and Harris campaigns are considering tariffs to combat China's alleged unfair trade practices.
🌱 NOPA Releases Record Soybean Crush Data
The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported that:
The US soybean crush for September reached 177.3 million bushels, marking a record high for the month and up 12.2% from August and 7.2% from September 2023. 🎉
Soybean oil stocks dropped to 1.07 billion pounds, the lowest since November 2014.
🇧🇷 Brazil's Soybean Crop Expected to Soar
According to Conab (Brazil's version of USDA), Brazil's soybean crop is projected to reach a record 166.1 million metric tons, reflecting a 12.7% increase from last season. Despite some delays in planting due to dry conditions, soybean acreage is expected to grow by 2.8%, the smallest increase in six years. 🌾
🚜 US Soybean and Corn Harvests Progressing Rapidly
US farmers are making significant headway in their harvests:
67% of the US soybean crop has been harvested, compared to 47% the prior week and 51% on average.
The US corn crop is 47% harvested, ahead of the 30% the previous week and in line with averages.
States like Arkansas, Iowa, and Minnesota have led the way with over 70% of their soybean crop harvested. 🌽
🌾 US Winter Wheat Planting Slightly Behind Schedule
Winter wheat planting is at 64% nationally, just behind the 66% average. The crop is 35% emerged, showing good progress compared to the 25% from the previous week.
📦 US Soybean and Corn Shipments Disappointing
USDA reported that:
1.6 million metric tons of soybeans were inspected for export, down 3.1% from last week and 25% from the same week last year.
Corn shipments were even lower than expected, at 430,323 metric tons, a drop of 55% from the previous week.
📦 Flash Sales Announced
US exporters secured multiple flash sales on Tuesday:
131,000 metric tons of soybeans were sold to China for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
120,000 metric tons of soft red winter wheat were sold to Mexico for the same delivery period.
Stay tuned for more updates as the market continues to evolve! 📈✨
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0:00 RFK Jr and Pipelines
2:41 Corn and Soybean Futures Decline
4:05 Fast Harvest Pace
7:34 Brazil Planting Update
8:52 Oil Falls
Here’s a lively summary of the latest happenings in the market and some notable commentary from Robert F. Kennedy Jr.! 🌱📉
🎥 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Critiques Carbon Pipelines
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has been vocal against carbon pipelines, stating that they’re "far from green." In a recent YouTube video, he criticized carbon capture and the tax incentives provided to large companies, arguing that these pipelines transfer wealth from working people to wealthy investors and cost taxpayers billions. He raised concerns about safety and eminent domain issues as well. Kennedy, who has endorsed Donald Trump for President, continues to stir conversation around these topics.
🌽 Market Update: Corn & Soybean Futures Decline
Corn and soybean futures took a dip on Monday:
The Dec24 corn contract lost nearly 8 cents per bushel, closing near $4.08, marking its lowest daily close since September 20th. 📉
The Nov24 soybean contract dropped nearly 10 cents, closing below $10 for the first time since late August.
Harvest pressures and USDA projections of burdensome supplies have contributed to this price drop. Large money managers have shifted from covering their net short positions to shorting the market again. 📉
🚜 Rapid US Corn & Soybean Harvest
As of Sunday, the USDA reported that:
30% of the US corn crop and 47% of the US soybean crop had been harvested. 🌾
With another week of dry weather expected, these numbers are likely to rise significantly next week.
Farmers are managing overage bushels due to "big" crops that they cannot store, which could further pressurize the marketplace. Additionally, the Mississippi River is experiencing restrictive water levels again amid ongoing dry weather. 🚢
🇧🇷 Brazil's Slow Soybean Planting
Brazilian soybean planting is lagging behind, with only 8.2% of the expected area planted, compared to 17% at the same time last year. The slow pace is primarily in Mato Grosso, where farmers are waiting for consistent rainfall. 🌧️ AgRural also reported that 42% of Brazil's first corn crop had been planted as of last Thursday, slightly up from 41% last year.
🛢️ OPEC Cuts Oil Demand Forecast
OPEC has revised its global oil demand forecast for this year and 2025, projecting an increase of 1.9 million barrels per day in 2024, which is 5.3% lower than previous estimates. This adjustment is due to a decline in global fuel use. OPEC plans to restore 2.2 million barrels per day of halted crude production by December. 📉
Stay tuned for more updates as the markets evolve! 🚀✨
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🌽 USDA Crop Production & WASDE Report
The USDA released its monthly Crop Production and WASDE report on Friday, and there were no major surprises! 🎉 Here are the highlights:
Corn: The national yield estimate was increased to 183.8 bushels per acre (bpa), while acreage remained unchanged. 🌽
Soybeans: The national yield estimate decreased to 53.1 bpa, with acreage also unchanged. 🫘
Wheat: The carryout estimate was reduced due to lower yields, lower beginning stocks, and increased feed usage. 📉
💵 China's Finance Minister Briefing
China’s Finance Minister held a briefing over the weekend, but it lacked specific details about new stimulus measures. Analysts had hoped for up to $283 billion in new fiscal stimulus, but without specifics, investor concerns are likely to grow, especially following slower-than-expected consumer price increases in September. 📉🤔
🛍️ "The Funds" Trim Net Short Positions
Good news! "The Funds" have drastically reduced their net short positions in the corn and soybean markets. As of October 8:
Corn: Short positions are down to 35k contracts from a record 356k in July. 📉
Soybeans: Funds were net buyers of 13k contracts, reducing their short position to 19k contracts from a peak of 183k in July. 🛒
However, funds were net sellers of 7k contracts of SRW wheat last week. 📊
🇧🇷 Brazilian Soybean Planting Lagging
Brazilian soybean planting is lagging behind last year, with 9.3% of the expected area planted compared to 17.4% at the same time last year. Hot and dry conditions have been a hurdle, but the forecast is looking favorable for rainfall in the coming weeks! ☔🌾 USDA estimates this season's Brazilian soybean crop at 169 million metric tons (mmt).
🌾 Russia's Wheat Export Limits
Russia is trying to limit wheat exports with a proposed price floor and an increase in its export duty by 41%. This move is aimed at curbing exports as domestic inflation soars. Russia recently lowered its estimate for this season's wheat crop to 130 mmt due to unfavorable growing conditions. 📉🚫
🌊 Environmental Concerns in Tampa Bay
Hazardous water from a fertilizer waste facility overflowed into Tampa Bay last week due to excessive rainfall during Hurricane Milton. The overflow involved more than 17,500 gallons of water, but Mosaic reports that the water quality impacts are expected to be minimal. 🌊⚠️
📦 Flash Sales Reported
USDA reported multiple flash sales on Friday:
Soybeans: 132,000 mt (5 million bushels) sold to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year. 🛳️
Corn: 577,928 mt (23 million bushels) sold to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year. 🌽
Stay tuned for more updates, and let's keep the momentum going! 🚀✨
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🌍📈 Trade Concerns, USDA Report, and Global Wheat Supply Woes | US Export Sales and Drought Monitor Updates
🌍 US Chamber of Commerce: Trump and Harris Could Harm Trade
The US Chamber of Commerce voiced concerns that both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris would be detrimental for US trade:
Trump’s planned tariffs: A 60% tariff on Chinese imports and 10% on all other imports would raise inflation and hurt US companies that rely on imported components.
Harris’ stance on trade: Harris has been anti-trade in the past, voting against free trade deals due to their lack of attention to climate change. She argues these agreements lead to lost US manufacturing jobs, despite opening global markets for US goods.
🌾 US Export Sales Mostly As Expected
Last week’s US export sales data came in largely as expected:
Corn sales: 1.2mmt (48 million bushels), down 27% from the prior week. Unknown destinations were the largest buyer.
Soybean sales: 1.3mmt (46 million bushels), down 12% week-over-week, with China as the largest buyer.
Wheat sales: 443,600mt (16 million bushels), down 2% from last week but up 31% from the 4-week average, with Mexico as the top buyer. 📉
🌱 USDA Crop Production and WASDE Report Coming
The USDA is set to release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE report today at 11:00 AM CST. Here's what traders are watching:
Corn: A potential reduction in US corn carryout due to lower-than-expected September 1st stocks. Strong export and ethanol data could lead to upward adjustments in demand.
Soybeans: Minimal changes are expected in production estimates.
Global balance sheets: Adjustments to both supply and demand are possible given current global conditions.
🌾 Global Wheat Production Declines
Global wheat production is expected to decline this season due to drought conditions in major producing countries like Russia, Argentina, Australia, Ukraine, and the US:
Russian attacks on grain ships in the Black Sea are further exacerbating supply concerns, driving Chicago wheat futures to their highest levels in four months.
The USDA projects world wheat ending stocks to fall to a nine-year low of 257.2mmt this season. 🌍
💧 US Drought Monitor Update
The USDA’s latest drought monitor shows worsening conditions across much of the Corn Belt:
Corn: 49% of the crop is experiencing drought conditions.
Soybeans: 43% impacted by drought.
Winter wheat: 47% affected, as well as 29% of spring wheat.
Cattle: 43% of cattle areas are facing drought.
📊 US Economic Data: A Mixed Bag
Thursday’s economic data revealed both positive and negative trends:
CPI: Consumer prices rose 0.2% for the month, exceeding expectations of a 0.1% increase. Year-over-year inflation reached 2.4%, the lowest since February 2021.
Jobless claims: Weekly claims hit a 14-month high at 258,000.
TradeConcerns #USDAReport #WheatProduction #USExportSales #DroughtMonitor #CPIData
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0:00 USDA Preview
2:41 Ethanol Production is Strong
5:55 Deere Stock
7:17 Brazil Rain
8:19 Flash Sale
8:57 CPI Preview
🌾 Upcoming USDA Report
Get ready! The USDA is set to release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE report on Friday morning. Traders are expecting minimal changes to this year's US corn and soybean production estimates. However, there’s talk of a potential reduction in the new crop US corn carryout estimate due to lighter-than-expected September 1st stocks. Some traders are speculating upward adjustments to the demand side of the corn balance sheet, thanks to strong export and ethanol data. Keep an eye out for possible changes to global supply and demand balances as well! 📈
🌿 Ethanol Production on the Rise
US ethanol production saw a boost last week, hitting 1.04 million barrels per day—up 2.3% week-over-week and 2.9% compared to the same week last year. Ethanol stocks were reported at 22.2 million barrels, down from the previous week but still showing a year-over-year increase. Implied gasoline demand surged, with a 13% increase from last week and 20% from the same week last year. Over the last four weeks, implied US gasoline demand is up 8.4% compared to the same period last year. 🚗💨
🚜 John Deere's Stock Steady Despite Tariff Threats
John Deere’s stock remains strong, even in the face of tariff threats from Donald Trump, who plans to impose a 200% tariff on machinery sold into the US if Deere moves production to Mexico. Despite the political drama, Deere's stock hit a 52-week high! Analysts believe traders are focusing on the market realities rather than political rhetoric. It seems there’s a 70% chance that tariffs will be implemented regardless of who wins the election! 📈💪
🌧️ Brazil's Soybean Country Receives Scattered Showers
Scattered showers moved across Brazil's soybean regions overnight! The weather models are having a bit of a disagreement on rainfall amounts for the next 5-10 days; the Euro model is notably wetter than the GFS model. Both models, however, suggest widespread rainfall during the 5-10 day period, potentially benefiting soybean planting. 🌧️🇧🇷
🌽 Flash Sale of Corn Reported
USDA reported a flash sale of 126,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of corn to unknown destinations for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year. US corn export commitments are currently the fifth best in the last ten years—looking good out there! 📦
📊 CPI Report Ahead
Today's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected to show further moderation in consumer prices, with a projected increase of 0.1% in September and a year-over-year increase of 2.3%. This report could be a significant market mover, influencing the Federal Reserve's next moves on interest rate cuts. The market is currently pricing in an 84% chance of a 0.25% rate cut in November. 📉
Stay tuned for more updates, and let’s keep the momentum going! 🌱✨
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🌱📉 Soybean Futures Fall | Brazil Rains, China-EU Tariffs, Oil Price Drop, and Biofuel Expansion
📉 Soybean Futures Take a Hit
On Tuesday, Nov24 soybean futures fell nearly 18 cents per bushel, losing half of the gains made over the past five weeks:
Uncertainty around China’s fiscal stimulus appears to be the driving factor behind the sell-off. Traders are glued to any news about stimulus measures.
Adding to the pressure, a wide-open US harvest forecast and expected rains in Brazil next week have kept traders cautious.
🌧️ Rains Set to Return to Brazil Next Week
Both the Euro and GFS weather models are predicting the return of Brazil’s wet season next week, which could accelerate soybean planting:
Brazil’s planting has been delayed due to hot and dry conditions, but the arrival of rain should help ensure proper emergence and reduce the risk of replanting.
The growing season is still young, with November through January being key months for both the market and weather conditions in Brazil. 🌱
🌍 China Retaliates Against EU Tariffs on EVs
In response to the EU’s recent tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, China announced a series of retaliatory measures:
Tariffs on gasoline-powered cars with large engines from the EU are under consideration.
Starting Friday, China will impose a 39% tariff on brandy imports from the EU.
🛢️ Oil Prices Drop on Ceasefire Hopes
Oil prices dropped sharply on Tuesday, with WTI crude falling 4.6% to $73.57 per barrel:
A potential ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel contributed to the decline.
While oil prices surged 8% last week due to Middle East tensions, analysts now believe Israel may target military and intelligence sites rather than oil facilities in future strikes.
🏭 Brazil to Build World’s Largest Soy Oil-Based Biofuel Plant
Brazilian energy company Grupo Potencial will invest $109 million to create the world’s largest soy oil-based biofuel plant:
The plant will increase annual biodiesel production capacity by 80% to 428 million gallons.
Construction will begin in 2025 and is expected to be completed by 2026.
This investment comes as Brazil's government prepares to sign a bill increasing the biodiesel blend in diesel fuel. 🔋
🚜 USDA Reports Flash Sale of Soybeans
The USDA reported a flash sale of 166,000mt (6 million bushels) of soybeans to China for the 2024/2025 marketing year:
Despite the sale, US soybean export commitments for the current marketing year are the third worst in the last ten years.
👇 Stay Connected!
Make sure to subscribe for more updates on global trade, crop markets, and energy trends. What do you think of Brazil's biofuel expansion and the impact of China’s trade retaliation? Drop your thoughts in the comments! 💬
SoybeanFutures #BrazilRains #ChinaEUTariffs #OilPriceDrop #BiofuelExpansion #USDAFlashSales #AgNews
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🌾 Brazil's Soybean Planting Lagging Behind
Brazilian soybean planting is facing challenges due to dry conditions, with only 4.5% of the expected area planted as of last Thursday. This is a significant drop from 10% during the same week last year. Mato Grosso, the country's top soybean-producing state, is experiencing its slowest planting pace in nine years due to hot and dry weather.
🇺🇸 US Soybean Harvest on the Fast Track
The US soybean harvest is making swift progress, reaching 47% completion nationally through Sunday, compared to just 26% the prior week and 34% on average. This harvest pace marks the second fastest in the last ten years! Notable states that have crossed the 50% mark include Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana, and Minnesota. Meanwhile, corn harvest stands at 30%, slightly ahead of average at this time of year. Current corn conditions remain steady at 64% rated good to excellent. 🌽
🌾 Winter Wheat Planting Slightly Behind
Winter wheat planting in the US is 51% complete, which is slightly behind the average of 52%. Analysts had projected it to be 54% complete by now. States like Colorado and South Dakota have made notable progress with more than 60% of their crops planted.
🎯 Escalating Tensions in Ukraine
Recent Russian missile strikes have damaged two vessels carrying Ukrainian grain in the Odesa region. One attack resulted in the death of one individual and injuries to five others. Since the onset of the conflict in 2022, Russia has damaged a total of 20 civilian vessels, raising serious concerns over trade in the Black Sea. Meanwhile, Russia's Agriculture Minister has called for rain as the winter wheat crop faces significant drought challenges.
📦 US Soybean Shipments Surge
US soybean shipments saw a remarkable boost last week, with 1.4 million metric tons (53 million bushels) inspected for export, marking a 110% increase from the previous week and slightly up from last year. However, corn and wheat shipments were near the lower end of expectations, with corn at 933,274 metric tons (37 million bushels) and wheat at 363,460 metric tons (13 million bushels).
🚢 Flash Sales Reported
US exporters reported multiple flash sales on Monday, including:
155,000 metric tons (6 million bushels) of corn to Mexico for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
172,500 metric tons (6 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
🌦️ Looking Ahead
As we move through October, the weather will continue to be a crucial factor for both US and Brazilian crops. Keep an eye on forecasts and market reactions as harvest progresses!
Stay tuned for more updates as the situation unfolds! 🌾📊
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🌽📉 Funds Reduce Net Short Positions | Middle East Conflict, Brazilian Planting Delays, and US Job Growth
📊 Funds Drastically Reduce Net Short Positions
The CFTC released its Commitment of Traders data on Friday, showing a significant reduction in net short positions by large money managers:
Corn: Funds are now short 72k contracts, down from a record short of 356k in July.
Soybeans: Net buyers of 44k contracts, reducing their net short to 32k contracts, the smallest since the end of May.
SRW Wheat: Net buyers of 6k contracts, bringing the net short to 25k contracts, the smallest since October 2022.
🌍 Conflict in the Middle East Escalates
Tensions continue to rise as Israeli defense reported five projectiles launched from Palestinian territory on Monday. Here’s the latest:
Sirens sounded across central Israel, and two people were injured, according to Bloomberg.
Over the weekend, Israel sent troops back to parts of northern Gaza, indicating ongoing security concerns.
The conflict has pushed crude oil futures to fresh multi-week highs, affecting global markets. 🛢️
🌱 Brazilian Soybean Planting Lags
Brazilian soybean planting is falling behind last year’s pace due to hot and dry conditions:
Only 4.1% of the total expected area has been planted, compared to 7.8% at this time last year.
Weather models are predicting rainfall this week, which could help planting progress. 🌧️
🌦️ US Farmers to Stay Busy Amid Dry Weather
US farmers are in for a dry week, perfect for harvest activities:
After a dry weekend, Corn Belt farmers will see another week of mostly dry weather, with above-normal temperatures in the Plains and western Corn Belt.
GFS models suggest no significant rainfall in key corn and soybean areas through October 23rd.
🌾 Russian Wheat Prices Soar
Russian wheat prices have climbed to their highest levels since June due to severe drought:
Prices have risen by 4.3% in the last two weeks.
Lower production is pushing Russian exporters to limit shipments.
Egypt, a major buyer, recently launched its largest wheat tender of 3.8mmt in August.
🚜 USDA Reports Flash Sales
The USDA reported multiple flash sales on Friday:
116,000mt (4 million bushels) of soybeans sold to China for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
198,000mt (8 million bushels) of corn sold to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
📈 US Job Growth Exceeds Expectations
US job growth in September surpassed forecasts:
Nonfarm payrolls rose by 254,000, beating the expected 150,000.
Unemployment declined to 4.1%, down from 4.2% in August.
👇 Stay Informed!
Make sure to subscribe for the latest on ag markets, weather forecasts, and global economic shifts.
CornFutures #SoybeanMarket #MiddleEastConflict #BrazilPlanting #JobGrowth #USDAFlashSales #AgNews
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🌍 ADM Suspends Carbon Capture Project
ADM has halted CO2 injection at its carbon capture and storage site in Illinois following the discovery of a potential leak underground. This site, one of the first of its kind in the US, aims to combat climate change, but environmental groups have raised concerns about potential harm to drinking water supplies. While ADM assures there’s no risk to public health, this incident poses a setback for carbon capture initiatives. The EPA previously found ADM in violation of federal safe drinking water laws.
⛽ Oil Prices Spike Amid Middle East Tensions
Oil prices surged on Thursday as the US considers supporting an Israeli attack on Iranian oil facilities. WTI crude rose over 5%, closing above $73 per barrel, marking the largest one-day gain in nearly a year. A potential strike on Iranian oil could lead to prices rising by an additional $28 per barrel and increase gasoline prices by about 67 cents. Current US gasoline prices have been lower due to weak demand and slower growth in the US and Chinese economies.
⚓ Dockworkers' Strike Temporarily Resolved
The US dockworkers' strike has reached a temporary resolution, with a tentative agreement in place that extends the current contract until January 15. Workers will see a 62% wage increase over the new six-year contract. Negotiations will continue on other issues, including automation. It’s expected that the cargo bottleneck caused by the strike will be cleared in about 12 days.
🌧️ USDA Drought Monitor Update
The latest USDA drought monitor shows improvements in drought conditions across parts of the Corn Belt due to rainfall from Hurricane Helene. States like Kentucky, Indiana, Illinois, and Missouri benefited, while Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota saw worsening conditions. Currently, drought conditions affect:
Corn: 27%
Soybeans: 26%
Winter Wheat: 44%
Spring Wheat: 22%
Cattle: 31%
📊 Strong Corn Export Sales
US new crop corn export sales were impressive last week, with net sales hitting 1.7 million metric tons (66 million bushels), the highest volume since November. Mexico was the largest buyer. Net soybean sales also remained solid at 1.4 million metric tons (53 million bushels), while net wheat sales exceeded expectations at 443,700 metric tons (16 million bushels), with Japan being the largest buyer.
💰 Record High for Money-Market Funds
US money-market funds have reached a record high, with about $38.7 billion added during the week ending October 2. Total assets in these funds have risen to $6.46 trillion. This surge follows a third-quarter increase of $321 billion, significantly higher than the previous quarter’s $63 billion. This influx of investment continues even as the Federal Reserve begins to cut interest rates.
Stay tuned for more updates as the market continues to evolve! 🌱📈
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0:00 "Fast and Furious" Harvest
2:10 Brazil Weather
5:09 Reduced Russian Wheat Exports
6:35 Russian Drone Attack
8:07 Ethanol Production is STRONG
9:09 Dockworkers
🌾 Fast-Paced US Harvest Ahead
The US corn and soybean harvest is set to move quickly due to a dry forecast. USDA reported that the harvest pace for both crops is ahead of average. The most recent Euro model suggests no significant rainfall for the central United States over the next 10 days, with above-normal temperatures expected throughout the Corn Belt. This is excellent news for farmers looking to expedite their harvest!
🌧️ Brazil's Weather Update
A small storm cluster has moved over northern Mato Grosso, bringing some much-needed rain to Brazilian soybean areas. The 10-day Euro model predicts scattered rain across much of Brazil's soybean regions through next week, although total rainfall is expected to remain below normal. However, the 16-day GFS anomaly map indicates that key soybean areas may see closer-to-normal rainfall later this month.
🌾 Russia's Wheat Export Estimates Lowered
Estimates for Russia's wheat exports have been slightly reduced. Sovecon has lowered its forecast to 47.6 million metric tons due to unfavorable weather conditions affecting the harvest. Despite this reduction, wheat shipments from July to August remain slightly lower than last year's record levels. Russian wheat stocks are currently at 24.8 million metric tons, down 14% compared to last year.
🚁 Drone Attack Affects Ukrainian Ports
A recent Russian drone attack has damaged Ukrainian port infrastructure, raising concerns about Black Sea trade and causing Chicago wheat futures to hit a three-and-a-half month high. The attack targeted grain facilities near Ukraine's border with Romania and affected electricity supplies in the northern Sumy region, impacting almost 80,000 people.
🚜 US Ethanol Production Update
US ethanol production saw an increase last week, with weekly output at 1.02 million barrels per day, marking a 2.1% rise compared to the previous week and a 1% increase year-over-year. Ethanol stocks are currently at 23.5 million barrels, slightly down from the previous week but up 6.4% compared to last year. However, implied gasoline demand fell 7.4% from the previous week.
⚓ Dockworkers Strike Update
President Joe Biden has called for negotiations to resume between striking dockworkers and US port employers. While he’s not planning to intervene directly, Biden warned that the ongoing strike could lead to significant economic consequences. Talks have stalled over wage increases and automation issues, with the strike expected to increase consumer prices and cost the US economy billions.
Stay tuned for more updates as the situation evolves! 🌱📊
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🌾 Corn Futures Rally as Hedge Pressure Remains Low
Corn futures reached new multi-month highs overnight, with the Dec24 contract peaking near $4.33 per bushel. The rally has now reached 48 cents from its August low. Here's what's driving the surge:
Large money managers have been aggressive buyers, reducing their net short positions from a peak of 356k contracts in July to just 50-60k.
Despite an extremely active US harvest, hedge pressure is minimal, possibly due to concerns of a tighter new crop balance sheet after USDA’s lighter-than-expected old crop carryout estimate.
📉 US Farmer Sentiment Hits Eight-Year Low
US farmer sentiment took a dive, hitting its lowest level in more than eight years:
The Purdue University CME Group Ag Economy Barometer dropped to 88 in September, a 12-point decline from August.
Main concerns include low commodity prices, high input costs, trade uncertainties, high interest rates, and potential policy changes post-election.
Farmers expect much lower profitability in the coming year compared to their outlook at this time last year.
🔗 View the Purdue/CME Ag Barometer report here
🌍 Iran’s Direct Attack on Israel and Market Impacts
Tensions flared in the Middle East as Iran launched its largest direct attack on Israel:
Hundreds of ballistic missiles were fired, with Israel’s Iron Dome intercepting most of them.
The US Navy assisted, launching about a dozen interceptors.
Oil prices surged over 5% amid concerns about possible supply disruptions in the region. In response, the US has increased its military presence and plans to send more troops and fighter squadrons in the coming days.
🌱 StoneX Raises US Corn & Soybean Crop Estimates
StoneX has adjusted its forecasts for this season’s crops:
Corn yield is now projected at 184 bpa, up from 182.9 bpa. This puts corn production at 15.22 billion bushels, an increase from 15.13 billion.
Soybean yield is estimated at 53.5 bpa, up slightly from 53 bpa, with production forecasted to reach 4.61 billion bushels.
🛢️ Renewable Diesel Production Decline
US renewable diesel production saw its largest monthly decline on record in July:
Production fell by 6% to roughly 4.6 billion gallons per year.
The market has reached a surplus, with output surpassing demand despite government-mandated consumption targets and subsidies.
The demand for vegetable oils as a feedstock also dropped by more than 5.6% to 1.2 billion pounds.
🚜 USDA Flash Sales of Corn & Soybeans
USDA reported multiple flash sales on Tuesday:
195,000mt (8 million bushels) of corn was sold to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
120,000mt (4 million bushels) of soybeans were also sold to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
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🌽 Corn Futures Rally
Corn futures saw a boost on Monday following a friendly USDA report, which pegged September 1st US corn stocks at 1.76 billion bushels. This figure is 52 million bushels below the USDA's previous estimate due to increased feed and residual usage. The report also confirmed that there were no major surprises in the US wheat production estimates.
📦 Dockworkers Strike on the East and Gulf Coasts
Dockworkers from the International Longshoremen's Association began a strike overnight after failing to reach an agreement with the US Maritime Alliance. This strike is estimated to cost the US economy $540 million per day and will impact container shipments from 36 ports from Maine to Texas. The strike could significantly affect grain exports, with containers accounting for about 10% of these shipments.
🌱 Brazilian Soybean Planting Lags
Brazil's soybean planting is lagging, with only 2% of the expected area planted as of last Thursday, compared to 5.2% during the same week last year. Hot and dry conditions are a significant factor in the slow planting progress. As for corn, 30% of the projected acres for Brazil's first corn crop have been planted.
🇨🇳 Boost for Chinese Corn Futures
Chinese corn futures surged 1.9% on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, marking the largest one-day gain since January. Recent stimulus measures in China, including lower interest rates and eased home purchase restrictions, have boosted investor confidence. Additionally, reduced grain imports are expected to drive corn futures higher as the Chinese government advises buyers to cut purchases.
🌾 US Harvest Ahead of Schedule
The US corn harvest is progressing well, with 21% harvested nationally compared to 14% last week and 18% on average. States like Kansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas have already harvested over 50% of their crops. Soybeans are also ahead, with 26% harvested. However, corn conditions slipped slightly to 64% rated as good to excellent.
🌱 Winter Wheat Planting Ongoing
US winter wheat planting is currently 39% complete, ahead of last week’s 25% and in line with the average of 38%. States like Colorado, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Washington have planted over 50% of their crops.
📈 Export Shipments Update
US corn shipments remained strong, with 1.1 million metric tons (45 million bushels) inspected for export, reflecting a 70% increase from the same week last year. Soybean shipments were reported at 675,749 metric tons (25 million bushels), up 36% from the prior week, while wheat shipments totaled 536,929 metric tons (20 million bushels), a 25% increase year-over-year.
🥡 Flash Sale of Soybeans
USDA reported a flash sale of 116,000 metric tons (4 million bushels) of soybeans to China for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year, although current soybean export commitments remain among the lowest in the last decade.
Stay tuned for more updates as the week progresses! 🌾📊
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🌱 Soybean Futures Surge
Soybean futures rallied sharply on Friday, with the nearby Nov24 contract gaining nearly 25 cents (2.4%) per bushel—its best close since July 25th! The rally was largely driven by soybean meal futures, which skyrocketed 5.3%. Hurricane-related storms are expected to disrupt soybean crushing in some southeastern US facilities, leading to market adjustments regarding meal supplies. Concerns about weather conditions in Brazil also contributed to the upward movement.
📊 Grain Stocks Report Coming Up
The USDA is set to release its quarterly Grain Stocks report today at 11:00 AM CST. Analysts expect significantly higher stocks for corn, soybeans, and wheat compared to last year. Estimates suggest:
Corn stocks: up 36%
Soybean stocks: up 32%
Wheat stocks: up 12%
There may also be adjustments to the 2023 production estimates for corn and soybeans.
📉 Funds Adjust Positions
"The Funds" have been actively trimming their net short positions in the corn and soybean markets. As of September 24, they were net buyers of 4,000 contracts of corn and 37,000 contracts of soybeans. The net short in soybeans is now 76,000 contracts, the smallest since early June. Since the peak short in July, fund traders have covered 362,000 contracts across corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat.
🌾 Decline in European Wheat Crop
Europe's wheat production is expected to hit a 12-year low. The European Commission estimates this season's soft wheat crop at 114.6 million metric tons, down 9% from last year, largely due to unfavorable weather conditions. France and Germany, the leading producers, are projected to face significant declines.
⚓ Strike at Vancouver Port Ends
The Vancouver grain workers' strike concluded last week with a tentative agreement. The four-day strike impacted six key terminals, affecting grain exports. A ratification vote is scheduled for Friday. Meanwhile, dockworkers at the Port of Montréal are set to strike for three days starting today.
💰 Gold Positions on the Rise
Money managers have ramped up their bullish positions in gold, increasing their net-long position by 0.9% as of last Tuesday. The net long now stands at 254,841 contracts, the highest since March 2020, with gold prices reaching an all-time high of $2,685.58 per ounce.
🛢️ Flash Sale of Soybean Oil
USDA reported a flash sale of 20,000 metric tons of soybean oil to South Korea for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year. This marks the first flash sale of soybean oil since April 2023.
Stay tuned for more updates as we head into the week! 🌟📈
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📈 Soybean & Corn Futures Hit Fresh Highs, Then Pull Back
The Nov24 soybean contract reached a new high of $10.65 per bushel on Thursday before closing lower at $10.41. Here’s the breakdown:
Early optimism around Chinese stimulus was likely behind the initial surge, but hedge pressure late in the session led to a retreat.
Corn futures followed a similar pattern, with the Dec24 contract peaking near $4.19 before closing lower.
Position-squaring could be in play today ahead of Monday’s USDA Grain Stocks report.
💸 US Treasury’s Take on China’s Stimulus Efforts
Jay Shambaugh, the US Treasury's top international official, believes China needs to do more to stimulate its economy. Despite China’s recent interest rate cuts, Shambaugh suggests:
China’s high savings rate creates an imbalance, leading to overproduction of goods and insufficient domestic demand.
Overnight, China confirmed additional stimulus measures that had been rumored earlier.
🌾 USDA Grain Stocks Report Preview
Corn stocks as of September 1st are estimated to be 36% higher than last year.
Soybean stocks are expected to rise 32% year-over-year.
Wheat stocks likely increased by 12% compared to the same period last year.
There may be some discrepancies between these estimates and USDA's most recent projections for old crop carryouts. 🕵️♂️
🌦️ Russia’s Wheat Crop Estimates Cut
Russia's IKAR agricultural consultancy has cut its wheat crop estimate:
New projection is 81.8mmt, down slightly from 82.2mmt.
Total grain production is now estimated at 124.5mmt, down from 125mmt due to excessive rainfall in eastern regions.
🚢 Disappointing US Corn Export Sales
Last week’s new crop US corn export sales fell below expectations:
Net corn sales totaled 535,100mt (21 million bushels), down 37% from the previous week. Colombia was the top buyer.
Soybean sales hit 1.6mmt (58 million bushels), near the upper end of expectations but still -10% from the prior week. China was the largest buyer.
Wheat sales disappointed, hitting a marketing-year low of 158,900mt (9 million bushels), down 36% week-over-week. Chile was the largest buyer.
💧 Drought Monitor Update
The USDA's latest drought monitor shows mixed conditions across the Corn Belt:
Improvements: Missouri and Illinois saw some drought relief due to scattered rainfall.
Worsening: Ohio, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Kentucky experienced deteriorating conditions.
🔢 US Areas Experiencing Drought:
Corn: 25%
Soybeans: 30%
Winter Wheat: 50%
Spring Wheat: 18%
Cattle: 32%
🚜 Flash Sale of Corn to Mexico
On Thursday, the USDA reported a flash sale of 115,000mt (5 million bushels) of corn to Mexico for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
SoybeanFutures #USDAReport #ChinaStimulus #CornExportSales #DroughtMonitor #AgNews
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Soybean & Corn Futures Rally
The Nov24 soybean contract posted its best close since late July, rising 11 cents to close near $10.54 per bushel on Wednesday.
The US crop situation appears mostly "known," but there could be surprises in Monday’s USDA Grain Stocks report.
China's stimulus and ongoing dry conditions in Brazil are also lending support to soybean prices.
The Dec24 corn contract followed suit, closing at its best level since late July, with news of additional Chinese stimulus on the horizon.
Brazil Faces Continued Dryness
Brazil's soybean country remains drier than normal. Both the Euro and GFS models predict rain in early October, but amounts will likely stay below normal over the next two weeks.
Reuters reported that Brazil's drought has "halted" grain transportation through the Madeira River, a key route linking Mato Grosso to vital ports.
Last year, Brazil’s "North Arc" region accounted for 43% of the country's corn exports and 34% of soybean exports.
Drought Affects Russian & Ukrainian Winter Wheat Crops
Winter wheat acres have fallen to their lowest level since 2013, with only 20.5 million acres planted so far, down nearly 11% from last year.
Key producing regions received less than 20% of normal rainfall in the past month.
Ukraine is also feeling the strain:
Winter wheat planting in Ukraine has reached 2.2 million acres, marking a 14% decline from last year.
Hurricane Helene-
Hurricane Helene is intensifying and could become a Category 3 or 4 storm before landfall later today:
Expected to bring winds of 111 mph+, storm surges up to 18 feet, and 12 inches of rain.
The southern and eastern Corn Belt regions might receive up to 5 inches of rainfall from this storm.
Argentina's Shift to Soybeans Over Corn
Argentine farmers are favoring soybeans this season due to profitability concerns and potential disease risks:
Soybean crop is projected to increase by 3% to 52mmt, while the corn crop is expected to decline by 5% to 47mmt.
The shift is driven by higher profitability for soybeans and concerns over leafhopper-induced stunt disease, which severely impacted last year’s corn crop.
US ethanol production took a dip last week:
Output fell to 994,000 barrels per day, down 5.2% on the week but still +1.4% vs. the same week last year.
Ethanol stocks were reported at 23.5 million barrels, down 1.1% from the previous week but up 8.5% compared to last year.
Despite the drop, implied gasoline demand rose 4.9% week-over-week and 9.5% compared to last year.
USDA Reports Flash Sale of Corn
The USDA reported a flash sale of 180,000mt (7 million bushels) of corn to Mexico for delivery during the current MY.
SoybeanRally #CornMarket #BrazilDrought #HurricaneHelene #ArgentinaCrops #EthanolProduction
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0:00 China Stimulus and Soybean Rally
2:38 "Farmer First" Biofuel Bill
5:49 Canada Port Strike
6:41 US Longshoremen Strike
7:51 Corteva Profits
China’s New Stimulus Package-
China just revealed its largest stimulus package since the pandemic in a bid to boost its economy. Here’s what’s included:
Lower interest rates and increased funding to fuel economic growth.
Reduced home mortgage repayment burdens to ease pressure on homeowners.
But, some analysts are skeptical:
They argue that the stimulus might not be enough to revive the economy due to weak credit demand from consumers and businesses.
Soybean futures rallied on the announcement, with hopes that the stimulus could lead to larger Chinese imports of US soybeans.
45Z Tax Credit Legislation Proposed: Farmer First Fuel Incentives Act
New legislation could mean big changes for farmers!
The bill would restrict eligibility for the 45Z tax credit to renewable fuels produced only from domestically sourced feedstocks.
It would also extend the credit to a full 10-year term, giving the ethanol industry time to grow and farmers new markets to explore.
If passed, this bill would:
Prevent foreign-sourced feedstocks, like Chinese cooking oil, from benefiting.
Open up new opportunities for US-produced soy and corn oil to power renewable diesel, reducing reliance on foreign fuel.
Canada’s Grain Workers Strike
Canada’s largest port, Vancouver, is grinding to a halt.
The strike impacts six major grain terminals, which process about 52% of Canada’s grain production.
This could prevent 100,000mt of grain from reaching the port’s terminals each day.
With potential daily losses of $26 million, this strike could seriously disrupt grain exports if it drags on.
East & Gulf Coast Port Strike Looming
A massive port strike could be on the horizon in the US. 🛳️ About 45,000 dockworkers from the East and Gulf Coast ports are poised to strike on October 1 when their contract expires:
The strike would close 36 ports, which handle over half of the nation’s containerized goods.
Corteva’s Profit Decline Expected Amid South American Drought
Crop concerns in South America are weighing on Corteva’s profit outlook:
Dry conditions are delaying corn planting in Argentina, with more dryness expected due to La Niña.
Brazil’s drought is also hindering soybean planting, raising concerns that second corn crop planting could be delayed.
ChinaStimulus #45ZTaxCredit #PortStrike #CortevaOutlook #SoybeanRally
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Hey everyone! 👋 We’ve got a lot to cover today, including a sharp rally in soybean futures, planting delays in Brazil, and some surprising political announcements from Donald Trump. Plus, we’ll check out the latest US crop conditions and export sales. Let’s dive in! 🚀👇
🌾 Soybean Futures Surge
On Monday, soybean futures rallied sharply! The Nov24 contract gained 27 cents per bushel, marking its best close since early August. Here's why:
📊 Fund buying and concerns over dry weather in Brazil fueled the rally.
Private estimates suggest funds bought 20k soybean contracts, 30k corn contracts, and 5k SRW wheat contracts. Despite harvest season, hedge pressure has been light, giving markets room to rise.
☀️ Brazil Soybean Planting Delays
Brazil is struggling with hot and dry weather, which continues to hinder soybean planting. Here’s the latest from AgRural:
As of last Thursday, only 0.9% of the expected soybean area had been planted. Last year, at the same time, planting was at 1.9%.
🇺🇸 Trump’s Tariff Plans on John Deere & China
Donald Trump made some major headlines at a forum in Pennsylvania:
He plans to impose a 200% tariff on John Deere if the company moves production to Mexico. Earlier this year, Deere announced layoffs in the US and has been acquiring land in Mexico to shift some production.
🌽 US Corn & Soybean Conditions Hold Steady
The USDA reports that both corn and soybean conditions were unchanged last week: Corn: 65% rated good to excellent, matching expectations and marking the best rating for this week since 2018. 🏆 About 14% of the crop has been harvested so far. Soybeans: 64% rated good to excellent, also the best rating for this week since 2018. About 13% of the crop has been harvested.
🌾 Winter Wheat Planting Progress
US winter wheat planting is progressing steadily:
25% of the crop was planted by Sunday, up from 14% the previous week. States like CO, MT, NE, SD, and WA are leading the way with 30% or more of their crops planted.
🚢 Strong US Export Shipments
US corn shipments were impressive last week:
The USDA reported 1.1mmt (43 million bushels) of corn inspected for export, up 94% from the prior week and 55% compared to last year.
Soybean shipments were 485,216mt (18 million bushels), a slight increase of 2.5%, though down 4.5% from last year.
Wheat shipments hit 711,073mt (26 million bushels), beating expectations and up 21% from last week.
🚨 USDA Flash Sale of Soybeans
The USDA reported a flash sale of 165,000mt (6 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery during the current marketing year.
👇 Stay Informed!
Don’t forget to subscribe for more updates on global ag markets, US crop conditions, and weather impacts.
SoybeanRally #CornExportSales #BrazilPlanting #TrumpTariffs #USCropConditions #AgNews
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Here’s the latest update on the agricultural market and related developments! 🌾📊
📉 Funds Reduce Short Positions
"The Funds" have significantly decreased their net short position in the corn market by 60% since July. As of September 17th, large money managers were short only 144k contracts of corn, down from a record 356k in July. The Dec24 corn contract rallied only 31 cents per bushel from its late August low of $3.85 to a peak of $4.16. Fund traders are also covering shorts in the soybean and wheat markets, though farmer selling has limited price movement.
🌪️ Storm Developing in the Caribbean
A storm in the western Caribbean is expected to develop into a hurricane this week, bringing heavy rains to the southeastern US and parts of the southern and eastern Corn Belt. However, the western Corn Belt and US Plains are likely to remain dry. Corn and soybean harvests are set to progress this week, despite the potential rains, though river conditions are projected to remain unchanged.
🇧🇷 Brazilian Soybean Planting Delayed
Brazil's soybean planting is lagging behind last year's pace, with only 0.5% of the estimated acreage planted compared to 1.6% last year. Low soil moisture due to hot and dry conditions has hindered planting, though some models predict rain in Mato Grosso later this week.
🚗 US Proposes Ban on Chinese and Russian Car Tech
The US is proposing a ban on smart car technology from China and Russia, which includes autonomous driving systems and vehicle communication. This move aims to prevent potential security risks. The ban is expected to take effect in January, allowing US automakers to develop their own supply chains for connected vehicles.
🐄 Cattle on Feed Report
Friday's Cattle on Feed report was neutral for the market. As of September 1, cattle on feed were reported at 101% of year-ago levels, aligning with expectations. August placements were steady at 99% year-over-year, while marketings came in at 96% of last year's levels.
🌱 Flash Sale of Soybeans
USDA reported a flash sale of 121,000mt (4 million bushels) of soybeans to China for the 2024/2025 marketing year. Current US soybean export commitments are the second lowest in the past decade.
Stay tuned for more updates! 🌟
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🚢📦 West Coast Port Cargo Surge & Market Updates | US Corn Export Sales, Brazil Weather, and Drought Report
Welcome back, everyone! 👋 In today’s video, we’ve got some major updates on the flood of imports into West Coast ports ahead of looming tariffs, a rise in US corn export sales, and the latest weather models for Brazil’s soybean crop. We’ll also dive into the worsening drought conditions across the Corn Belt and the stock market hitting new highs! Let’s get into it! 🚀👇
🚢 West Coast Ports See Massive Spike in Imports
Cargo is pouring into the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach as businesses try to dodge upcoming tariff hikes. These ports handle about a third of all US container imports, and this summer’s spike nearly surpassed the all-time high set in May 2021. What’s behind the surge?
📦 Businesses are rushing to bring in goods before the US hikes tariffs on Chinese products next Friday.
A potential dockworker strike at East and Gulf coast ports is pushing even more imports through the West Coast.
🌽📈 US Corn & Soybean Export Sales Rise
US new crop corn export sales soared last week, driven by strong demand:
Corn sales: 847,400mt (33 million bushels), up 27% from the prior week! Mexico was the top buyer. 🚜
Soybean sales: A whopping 1.7mmt (64 million bushels), with China leading the pack. This beat expectations by 19%! 🌱
Wheat sales, however, fell to their lowest in two months at 246,300mt (9 million bushels), down 48%.
🌧️ Brazil Soybean Forecast: Rain on the Horizon?
Soybean farmers in Brazil may finally get some relief! 🌱 Mato Grosso and other key soybean areas have been battling extremely dry conditions, but rain could be on the way in October.
There’s some disagreement between weather models: The Euro model expects rain toward the end of the next 10 days, while the GFS model is less optimistic.
However, both models predict more consistent rainfall during the first two weeks of October—a positive sign for Brazil’s soybean crop! 🌧️
💧 Drought Worsens in US Corn Belt
The USDA’s weekly drought monitor is out, and the news isn’t great. 😬 Dry, hot weather has worsened drought conditions across the Corn Belt:
77% of the region is now abnormally dry, with Ohio being hit hardest—59% of the state is in severe drought or worse.
While the dry weather is good for corn and soybean maturation, it’s hurting pastures and newly planted crops like winter wheat. 🌾
🔢 US Drought Conditions:
Corn: 26% affected
Soybeans: 33%
Winter Wheat: 58%
Spring Wheat: 19%
Cattle: 35%
📊 Stock Market Surges to Record Highs
The stock market is on fire! 🔥 One day after the Federal Reserve’s half-point rate cut, the S&P 500 hit its 39th record high this year, jumping 1.7%! Here’s the breakdown:
Dow Jones also climbed, closing above the 42,000 level for the first time. 📈
The Fed’s bold move has renewed optimism for a soft landing and avoiding a recession. Jobless claims are also down, reaching their lowest level since May. 💼
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Here's a breakdown of the key topics you mentioned:
🌐 Trade & Global Tensions:
China-Taiwan Tariff Suspensions:
China is set to suspend tariff exemptions on 34 agricultural products from Taiwan starting September 25. The suspension spans from fruits to aquatic products. While the monetary impact is expected to be minimal, this move highlights the ongoing tensions between Taipei and Beijing since Taiwan's new president, who advocates for independence, took office in May. Meanwhile, the US is also planning to increase tariffs on Chinese products next week, further escalating trade tensions globally.
🌦️ Brazil Weather & Agricultural Impact:
Hot & Dry Conditions for Brazilian Soybean Farmers:
Brazil is facing another week of hot and dry weather, especially in central and northern soybean regions, which are experiencing significant moisture deficits. While southern areas are receiving rain, they risk becoming too wet. As a result, farmers have been slow to start planting corn and soybeans. The 16-day GFS model predicts limited rain for key areas, though more rain may arrive in October. 🌱
🛰️ Ukrainian Drone Attack on Russian Arms Depot:
A Ukrainian drone struck a Russian arms facility in the Tver region, causing a massive explosion that even triggered earthquake sensors! The facility stored missiles and artillery ammunition, and it's estimated that 200-240 tons of high explosives detonated. Despite the significant explosion, no fatalities were reported, though nearby areas were evacuated. Ukraine continues to report successes in shooting down Russian drones.
📈 US Ethanol & Gasoline Production:
Ethanol Production:
US ethanol output was strong last week, averaging 1.05 million barrels/day. While production was down compared to the previous week, it remained slightly higher than the same period last year. Ethanol stocks increased marginally, while implied gasoline demand rose by 3.5% from the previous week, maintaining a slight edge over last year’s demand. 🚗
🏦 Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cuts:
Fed Cuts Rates to Prevent Slowdown:
In a move aimed at averting an economic slowdown, the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates by 0.5%, the first reduction in four years. Inflation is easing, but the labor market is showing signs of strain, with unemployment climbing to 4.2%. The Fed has signaled further rate cuts this year, with plans for additional reductions in 2025 and 2026 to keep the economy on track.
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Here’s the latest roundup of key developments affecting the agricultural market and the economy! 🌾💼
🌱 Farm Income Support Package Consideration
US lawmakers are exploring a potential "farm income support" package aimed at assisting producers grappling with low commodity prices. Senator Jerry Moran (KS) emphasized the need for quick aid, likely tied to a farm bill extension, but without modifying current commodity programs. The focus is on immediate assistance rather than long-term changes.
🌾 Russian Profits from Stolen Grain
Russia is reportedly funding its war through profits from stolen Ukrainian grain, with approximately $1 billion generated since the invasion. Estimates suggest around 4 million tons of stolen grain have been sold on the black market, primarily to countries like Syria and Iran that do not comply with sanctions.
💧 Drought Impacting Wheat in Ukraine and Russia
Drought conditions are severely hindering wheat planting in both countries. Wheat prices have risen due to concerns over supplies from the Black Sea, with USDA projecting global wheat stockpiles at a nine-year low this season. Rain is expected, but significant precipitation is needed to improve soil moisture.
🇧🇷 Brazil's Soybean Crop Set for Growth
Brazil is anticipating a substantial increase in its soybean crop, estimated at 166.3 million metric tons, up nearly 13% from last season. This growth is driven by increased planted acreage and improved yields. The Brazilian corn crop is also projected to rise to 119.8 million metric tons, a 3.6% increase.
🌊 Salt Water Intrusion in the Mississippi River
Salt water is advancing up the Mississippi River due to low water levels, prompting the construction of a sill near New Orleans to prevent contamination of drinking water. If rainfall does not occur soon, fresh water may need to be transported downstream, or a boil alert could be issued.
📉 Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expected
The Federal Reserve is poised to cut interest rates for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic, with speculation about a quarter-point or half-point cut. A slowdown in the labor market has raised concerns about inflation pressures versus recession risks. The decision will be announced today at 1:00 p.m. CST.
Stay tuned for more updates as these situations evolve! 🌟📊
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0:00 Biden to Hike Tariffs
2:48 China Demand Problems
6:38 Brazil Drought Continues
8:05 NOPA Crush Miss
9:46 Crop Progress
11:50 Export Inspections
12:45 Flash Sale
Here’s the latest scoop on the markets and key developments! 🌾📈
🛠️ Tariff Hikes on Chinese Imports
The Biden administration announced major tariff increases on Chinese imports last week:
100% Tariff on EVs
50% Tariff on Solar Cells
25% Tariff on Steel, Aluminum, and Key Minerals
These hikes aim to protect US industries from China’s state-controlled practices, but critics warn they could disrupt supply chains and raise costs for consumers. China has responded, claiming these tariffs will backfire on the US. The new tariffs will take effect on September 27.
🌾 Grain Imports Drop in China
China's economic slowdown has led to a sharp decrease in grain imports:
Only 13,400mt of US corn sold to China this season.
Meat consumption cuts are impacting grain needs for livestock.
US soybean exports to China are at their lowest in 16 years, primarily due to Brazil’s competitive pricing.
☀️ Drought Impacting Brazil
Brazilian soybean planting is struggling due to hot and dry conditions:
Only 0.06% of expected soybean acres planted so far, compared to 0.15% last year.
Rain is expected mainly in the southern states, with Mato Grosso facing no rain this week.
The first corn crop planting is also lagging at 19% planted.
📊 NOPA Crush Data Released
The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported a decline in soybean crush:
158 million bushels processed in August, the lowest since September 2021.
End-of-month soybean oil stocks fell to 1.1 billion pounds, a 10-month low.
🌽 US Corn and Soybean Conditions
Corn Conditions: Rated at 65% good to excellent, slightly up from last week.
Soybean Conditions: Rated at 64%, consistent with trade expectations.
Both crops are seeing early harvesting progress, with 9% of corn and 6% of soybeans harvested nationally.
🌾 Wheat Harvest Ahead of Schedule
US spring wheat is 92% harvested, which is ahead of the average.
Winter wheat planting is 14% complete, surpassing average expectations.
🚢 Corn Shipments Disappointing
US corn exports were down last week:
521,118mt (21 million bushels) inspected for export, a 38% drop from the previous week.
Soybean shipments saw a slight increase, while wheat shipments met expectations.
🌟 Flash Sales of Soybeans
US exporters sold 132,000mt (5 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
Stay tuned for more updates as the situation evolves! 🌱✨
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0:00 Wheat Winning Streak
1:49 Western Weapons in Ukraine?
2:56 Russia/Iran Ties
5:29 Brazil Weather Shift??
6:39 Funds and Farmers
8:18 Flash Sale
Here’s the latest on the markets and key updates:
🌾 Wheat Futures Surge:
Third Consecutive Week of Gains: Wheat futures rose for the third straight week due to several factors. India’s government has reduced the amount of wheat stockpiles allowed for traders and large retailers, indicating tight supplies and an effort to stabilize domestic prices. Drought conditions in Russia and Ukraine, combined with recent Russian attacks on Ukrainian wheat transport, have further fueled supply concerns.
🌍 Ukraine’s Long-Range Weaponry:
US and Britain Consider Support: The US and Britain are mulling over allowing Ukraine to use long-range Western weapons. President Biden and Britain’s Prime Minister discussed this last week amid threats from Vladimir Putin, who claims such a move would indicate that NATO countries are at war with Russia. While Britain believes Putin is bluffing, Biden remains cautious about the potential escalation.
🚀 Russia-Iran Military Relations:
Growing Ties: The US and UK are worried about Russia providing classified information and technology to Iran, potentially advancing Iran’s nuclear capabilities. In return, Iran is allegedly supplying ballistic missiles to Russia for its conflict with Ukraine. Despite these concerns, Iran insists it is not pursuing nuclear weapons.
🌧️ Brazilian Soybean Weather:
Hot and Dry Conditions: Brazil’s soybean regions will experience continued hot and dry weather, with rainfall expected mainly in the southern states over the next two weeks. However, extended forecasts suggest potential rains in central soybean areas starting in early October. Weather forecasts can be unreliable, so stay tuned for updates.
📉 Fund Trader Activity:
Trimming Positions: Fund traders reduced their net short positions in the corn and soybean markets. For the week ending September 10, funds were net buyers of 41k corn contracts (the smallest net short since May) and 26k soybean contracts. They also bought 13k SRW wheat contracts.
🌱 Soybean Flash Sale:
New Sales: US exporters sold 100,000mt (4 million bushels) of soybeans to China for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year. Despite recent sales, soybean commitments for the current marketing year remain the second lowest in the past decade.
Keep an eye on these developments as they could impact the markets further! 🌾📈
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🌾 USDA Raises Corn Yield Estimate
Big news from the USDA! Yesterday, they increased their estimate of the US corn crop:
Yield was raised to 183.6bpa, up slightly from 183.1bpa.
Total crop is now pegged at 15.2 billion bushels, making it the second-largest on record, just behind last year! 📈
Despite the increase, old crop carryout was reduced by 55 million bushels due to stronger demand, so the balance sheet stayed flat.
The Dec24 corn contract managed to stay above $4/bu despite some pressure.
🚢 Russian Missile Hits Grain Ship in Black Sea
A Russian missile allegedly struck a grain vessel in the Black Sea, marking the first attack on a civilian ship transporting grain since the war began in February 2022. Here’s what happened:
The ship, from Saint Kitts and Nevis, was carrying Ukrainian grain to Egypt.
The attack occurred in international waters near Romania.
Thankfully, there were no casualties, and the ship continued its voyage. 🚢💥
🌱 Brazil’s Soybean Concerns
The situation is heating up in Brazil—literally. 🔥 Soil moisture levels in key soybean regions are at their lowest in 30 years:
The states of Mato Grosso and Parana, responsible for 40% of Brazil’s soybean output last season, are facing serious drought conditions. 🌵
Over the next 10 days, dry conditions and above-normal temperatures are expected.
Relief may come with rain forecasted for late September, but significant rainfall may not return until mid-October. 🌧️
💧 US Drought Conditions Worsen
The USDA’s latest drought monitor shows that drought is tightening its grip across the Corn Belt.
Hot, dry weather is affecting the southern and eastern Corn Belt, leading to signs of deeper dryness. 🌞
📉 US Crop Export Sales: Mixed Results
US export sales took a hit for corn, but there were some bright spots for soybeans and wheat. Here’s the breakdown:
Corn export sales were below expectations, totaling 666,500mt (26 million bushels), down 63% from the prior week. Mexico was the largest buyer.
Soybean sales were strong, hitting 1.5mmt (54 million bushels), with China leading the way. 📊
Wheat sales were 474,900mt (17 million bushels), up 40% from last week, with Taiwan as the top buyer.
🔥 Flash Sale of Corn!
More good news on the export front! The USDA reported a flash sale of 118,626mt (5 million bushels) of corn to unknown destinations for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
👇 Stay Updated!
Make sure to subscribe and stay tuned for more updates on global grain markets, US crop data, and weather impacts. Let me know in the comments: what do you think about the recent USDA corn estimate? 💬
USDAReport #BlackSeaIncident #DroughtMonitor #SoybeanDrought #CornExportSales #AgNews #FlashSaleCorn
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Hey, everyone! 🙌 Today's video is packed with important updates from the USDA’s latest Crop Production and WASDE report to major challenges in Russian grain exports, low water levels on the Mississippi River, and US ethanol production. Let's dive into the details! 🚜👇
🌾 USDA Crop Production & WASDE Report: What to Expect
Today at 11 AM CST, the USDA will release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE report. Here’s why traders are eagerly waiting:
For the first time this year, the government will incorporate "objective yield data" 📊 into its corn and soybean estimates!
Expectations: A small reduction in the US national corn yield estimate 🌽 and mostly unchanged soybean yield estimates 🌱.
With drier weather hitting the eastern Corn Belt, some traders believe last month may have been the high point for yield estimates. 📉
🇷🇺 Russian Grain Exports to Decline
Russia’s grain exports are expected to take a hit this year, especially from the Rostov region, which suffered early spring frosts and drought. This region, Russia’s breadbasket, accounted for over 11% of the nation’s grain harvest in 2023, but production is predicted to drop by 30% this year. 😲
Complicating matters further, TD RIF, Russia’s largest grain trader, is sitting out this year, adding uncertainty to export potential.
🚢 Mississippi River: Low Water Levels Hurting Farmer Profits
🌊 Here’s how bad it is:
Grain shipments on the Mississippi dropped 17% compared to the previous week.
Freight rates are skyrocketing! Rates in St. Louis are up 57%, and in Memphis, they’re up 63% compared to the three-year average. 📈
🍻 US Ethanol Production Surges
Good news for the ethanol market! 🚗 US ethanol production hit 1.08 million barrels per day last week, which is up 1.8% week-on-week and a big 6.7% increase compared to the same week last year! 🔥
Ethanol stocks were reported at 23.7 million barrels, up 1.5% from last week and 9.7% higher than the same week last year.
However, implied gasoline demand was down 5.1% on the week, continuing a trend of weaker demand this year.
🏦 Inflation Hits Lowest Level Since 2021
Inflation is cooling down! The CPI increased by 2.5% in August year-over-year, marking the lowest level since February 2021. 📉
Month-over-month, prices remained flat compared to July.
Economists expected a slightly higher annual gain of 2.6%, but this low reading almost guarantees a Federal Reserve rate cut next week.
👇 Stay Informed!
Don’t forget to subscribe to stay up-to-date on the latest agricultural trends, ethanol production stats, and global grain news! Drop your thoughts in the comments—what do you think the USDA report will reveal? 💬
USDAReport #RussianGrain #MississippiRiver #EthanolProduction #Inflation #AgNews
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0:00 Don't Blame Farmers
3:45 45Z News?
6:20 Francine/River Update
8:25 Brazil Cattle Herd
9:52 Crude Declines
🌱 Consumers & Sustainable Food: Who’s Paying the Price?
Sustainability is a hot topic, but guess what? 🌍 Despite the pressure on food producers to go green, consumers aren’t ready to pay a premium for eco-friendly options. According to the CEO of JBS, the solution lies in boosting productivity to make food more affordable, not more expensive.
The food industry needs $350 billion annually until 2030 to go sustainable.
Farmers deserve compensation for adopting higher environmental standards 🌿, but how can we make that happen without raising food prices?
💸 45Z Tax Credit: A Boost for US Agriculture?
Big changes are coming! 🚜 Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack is confident that the new 45Z tax credit will be finalized by January, offering better incentives for sustainable farming. Here’s what you need to know:
The new credit is expected to include more crops and eco-friendly practices than the current 40B credit.
🌪️ Hurricane Francine: Impacting Louisiana & Beyond
Hold on to your hats! 🎩 Hurricane Francine is about to hit the Louisiana coast with winds over 100 mph! Here’s what’s on the radar:
Expect up to 12 inches of rainfall and a storm surge up to 10 feet along the coast.
🌽 While heavy rain is expected in parts of the Corn Belt, it won’t be enough to ease low water levels on the Mississippi River.
🐂 Brazilian Cattle Herd Decline: What’s Next for Global Beef?
The cattle industry is facing a rough road ahead 🐄. Brazil’s cattle herd is expected to decline in 2025 and beyond, with fewer cattle being slaughtered. Here's what you need to know:
Brazil, the largest beef exporter in 2024, is expected to see a drop of 4.6% in slaughter next year.
🥩 Meanwhile, the US beef cowherd is at its lowest level since 1951!
🛢️ Oil Prices Plummet: What’s Behind the Drop?
Oil prices took a hit! 📉 WTI crude dropped 4% to close at $65.75 per barrel. The culprits? OPEC+ downgraded its demand growth forecast, citing:
China’s slowing economy and growing reliance on natural gas.
Decreased economic activity in the US and Europe.
But don’t count oil out just yet! Some analysts believe that postponed production cuts could stabilize prices in the months ahead.
SustainableFood #45ZTaxCredit #HurricaneFrancine #GlobalBeef #OilPrices #AgNews #FoodIndustry
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Here’s the latest scoop on the markets and key updates:
🌾 American Flour Mills Importing European Wheat:
European Wheat Imports: Ardent Mills in Albany, NY will soon receive 27,000 tons of French wheat. Since the season started in July, around 53,000 tons of European wheat have been shipped to the US. Eastern US millers are opting for cheaper European supplies despite France's poor harvest due to excessive rainfall.
🌪️ Tropical Storm Francine:
Hurricane Alert: Tropical Storm Francine is strengthening in the Gulf of Mexico and is expected to become a Category 2 hurricane by Wednesday. Southern Louisiana may face winds over 100 mph, a storm surge up to 10 feet, and up to 12 inches of rain. Evacuation orders are in effect, and Louisiana has declared a statewide emergency.
🌱 Brazilian Corn Planting:
Planting Delays: Brazil’s first corn crop planting is slightly behind last year’s pace, with 15% planted as of last Thursday compared to 17% last year. Low soil moisture and hot, dry conditions are delaying soybean planting, which is likely to remain stalled with minimal rain in the forecast.
🌽 US Crop Conditions:
Corn: The corn crop was rated 64% good to excellent as of Sunday, down from 65% the previous week but matching trade expectations. The USDA estimates 5% of the crop is harvested, up from 3% on average.
Soybeans: Soybean conditions held steady at 65% good to excellent, surpassing expectations. The USDA estimates 25% of the crop is dropping leaves, up from 13% last week and 21% on average.
Spring Wheat: Harvest is ahead of schedule at 85% complete, versus 70% last week and 83% on average. Winter wheat planting is also progressing, with 6% complete.
🚢 US Grain Shipments:
Corn: Shipments were 836,413mt (33 million bushels), down 13% from the previous week but up 31% from last year.
Soybeans: Shipments were 354,166mt (13 million bushels), down 30% from the prior week and 5.2% from last year.
Wheat: Shipments were 586,687mt (22 million bushels), down 2.7% from last week but up 44% from last year.
🌾 Flash Sale of Soybeans:
New Sales: US exporters sold 132,000mt (5 million bushels) of soybeans to China for the 2024/2025 marketing year. Although recent sales have picked up, they remain among the lowest in the last decade.
🇨🇳 China’s Antidumping Investigation:
Canadian Canola: China has launched an investigation into Canadian canola imports, alleging that Canada dumped excessive quantities in 2023. This follows Canada's plans to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese EVs and a 25% tariff on Chinese steel and aluminum starting October 1. China is also investigating EU pork and dairy imports.
Stay tuned for more updates and adjustments! 🌾🚀
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Here's the latest on the markets and key developments:
0:00 Rejection
2:15 "The Funds"
5:32 Tropical Storm / River Levels
7:05 Export Sales
9:09 Brazil Update
10:35 Chinese Ag Drones
11:40 Trump/Biden/Tariffs
🌾 Corn and Soybean Futures:
Corn and soybean futures pulled back from recent highs on Friday. The Dec24 corn contract reached $4.16 per bushel but closed near $4.06. The Nov24 soybean contract hit $10.31 per bushel before closing around $10.05. This rally followed reduced farmer selling and concerns over drought in Brazil, along with stronger export sales reported by USDA.
🌾 Fund Trader Positions:
Fund traders have reduced their net short positions. For the week ending September 3, funds were net buyers of 61k corn contracts and 21k soybean contracts. This has cut down nearly half of the record net short position in corn. They also bought 11k SRW wheat contracts.
🌧️ Mississippi River Conditions:
Despite the Potential Tropical Storm Six expected to bring heavy rains to the Gulf Coast and southeastern US, water levels on the Mississippi River are likely to continue declining. The system may bring 3-5 inches of rain to southern areas, but central and northern river valley areas may remain dry.
🌽 US Export Commitments:
New crop US corn export commitments were strong last week at 1.8mmt (72 million bushels), up 22% from the previous week, with Mexico being the largest buyer. Soybean sales were 1.7mmt (61 million bushels), down 37% from the previous week, with China as the largest buyer. Wheat sales were lower than expected at 340,000mt (12 million bushels).
🌱 Brazilian Soybean Production:
Brazil's soybean production is projected to rise to 168mmt this season, a 14% increase from last year, despite ongoing drought conditions. Forecasts suggest that rainfall may start in October. The USDA projects Brazilian soybean production at 169mmt. Prices for soybeans recently fell to a nearly four-year low, but have since been buoyed by US crop concerns.
🚁 Chinese Agriculture Drones:
US lawmakers are raising concerns about DJI agricultural drones potentially posing a security threat. They argue that these drones could be used for attacks, although DJI denies military ties. The US imposed export restrictions on DJI in 2020, but the company still dominates the US drone market.
💰 Trump’s Tariff Proposal:
Donald Trump proposed a 100% tariff on countries that move away from the US dollar. The Biden administration is also expected to make a decision soon on increasing tariffs on Chinese EVs, batteries, semiconductors, and solar cells.
Stay tuned for more updates and adjustments in these key areas!
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Here’s the latest update from the markets:
🌾 Soybean Futures:
Winning Streak: The Nov24 soybean contract closed higher for the fifth consecutive day on Thursday, gaining 2 cents per bushel. Despite high yield estimates, some traders worry that August’s heat and dry weather might lead to losses. Recent interest from China in US soybeans aligns with typical seasonal patterns.
🌾 Corn and Wheat Futures:
Snap in Rally: Corn futures ended their five-day winning streak with a decline yesterday, while wheat futures also halted their recent gains.
🌾 US Drought Monitor:
Conditions Worsen: The drought has worsened in parts of the Corn Belt due to above-normal temperatures and minimal rainfall. Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, and other areas are seeing deteriorated conditions, while Wisconsin and Michigan saw some improvement. Rainfall in the High Plains improved conditions in central Kansas but worsened them in western South Dakota and Nebraska. See the USDA’s drought PDF HERE.
🌾 Mississippi River Impact:
Barge Rates Surge: Declining water levels on the Mississippi River due to drought have led to a nearly 20% increase in barge rates. Restrictions on barge traffic are in place, affecting corn and soybean shipments and making US exports less competitive. Further declines in water levels are expected with minimal rain in the forecast. See maps/graphics below.
🌾 Brazilian Soybean Weather:
Dry Conditions: Most key soybean areas in Brazil will remain dry for the next 10 days. Forecasts suggest rainfall in southern Brazil through mid-month, with a possible return of rains to central areas later in September. This drought may delay planting, with September marking the transition from the dry to wet season. See maps below.
🌾 US Farm Income:
Less Decline: USDA estimates net farm income at $140 billion this year, down 4.4% from 2023. This is better than the earlier projection of a 26% decline. Despite lower corn and soybean prices, the estimate is 15% above the 20-year average. Total crop receipts are expected to drop by $27.7 billion, a 10% decrease. Click HERE for the USDA release.
🌾 US Ethanol Production:
Slight Decline: Weekly ethanol production fell to 1.06 million barrels per day, a 1% drop from the previous week but up 5.4% year-over-year. Ethanol stocks are at 23.4 million barrels. Implied gasoline demand decreased by 4% from the previous week and 1.4% from last year. Over the last four weeks, implied gasoline demand is up 1% from last year. See charts below.
🌾 Flash Sales:
Soybeans: USDA reported multiple flash sales of soybeans on Thursday. US exporters sold 126,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans to China and 189,700 metric tons (7 million bushels) to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
🌾 Gasoline Prices:
Fall to Six-Month Lows: Gasoline prices have dropped to a six-month low, with the national average at $3.32 per gallon. This is $0.15 lower than last month and $0.49 lower than last year. Prices are expected to fall further as winter-grade gasoline becomes more common. Analysts anticipate prices could drop as low as $3 per gallon by year-end. The avera
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🌽🌱 Corn, Soybean, & Wheat Markets on Fire! 🔥 | Futures Rally, Global Crop Updates & River Concerns
Welcome back to the channel, traders! 🚜 Today we’re diving into the latest surges in the corn, soybean, and wheat markets, as well as some critical updates on global agriculture trends. Let's get into the details!
🚀 Futures Rallying Strong!
Corn, soybean, and wheat futures are making waves! 🌊 On Wednesday, all three surged:
Corn & soybean futures closed higher for four consecutive sessions!
KC wheat futures crushed it with six consecutive higher closes!
✨ What's Driving This? Fund traders are covering short positions and US farmers may be holding off on selling, especially after last week’s First Notice Day. Let's break it down:
Dec24 corn contract rallied 29 cents 📈 from last week’s low!
Nov24 soybean contract spiked an impressive 70 cents 📊!
Dec24 KC wheat contract rose 67 cents from its August low!
🇧🇷 Record Soybean Production Expected in Brazil!
Get ready for a massive harvest in Brazil! 🏞️ AgRural reports that soybean production is set to hit 168 million metric tons (MMT), a 14% increase compared to last season! However, 🌞 dry weather is causing planting delays. Here's the scoop:
Planting is expected to start soon, but dry conditions may push it back ⏳.
Brazil’s soybean acreage will expand, but only by 0.9%, the slowest growth in 20 years! 🌱
🇺🇸 US Crop Yields Rise!
Exciting news for US corn and soybean farmers! StoneX reports slight increases in crop yields:
Corn: Up to 182.9 bpa, with total production pegged at 15.1 billion bushels 🌽.
Soybeans: Yields increased to 53 bpa, with production rising to 4.6 billion bushels 🌱!
🌊 Mississippi River Low Water Levels Impact Exports
Trouble on the water! 🚢 The Mississippi River is facing its third consecutive year of low water levels, causing massive disruptions for grain exports:
Barge rates are skyrocketing, making US grain exports less competitive globally 🌍.
Memphis’ water level could hit a shocking -7.5 feet by mid-September! ⚠️
🌾 Ukraine's Drought Concerns
🌍 Ukraine is battling drought, with up to 70% of the country affected by dry conditions. Despite this, farmers are starting to plant winter crops:
Wheat harvest for 2023/24 season was 21.8MMT, slightly down from last year.
USDA estimates next season's wheat production at 21.6MMT.
👇 Stay Updated!
Be sure to subscribe for more updates on global agricultural trends, futures markets, and crop news. Comment below on what you think this means for the market in the long term! 📈 And remember, staying informed is key to staying ahead! 🚀
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Here’s the latest market update:
🌾 Brazilian Soybean Drought:
Concerns Growing: The drought in Brazil is intensifying. StoneX has kept its soybean crop estimate at 165 million metric tons (MMT), while the USDA projects 169 MMT. Planting is challenging due to dry weather, with no rain forecasted for most of Brazil in the next 10 days. The Nov24 soybean contract gained 12 cents per bushel on Tuesday. See maps below.
🌾 China's Antidumping Investigation:
Canola Imports Under Scrutiny: China plans to investigate Canadian canola imports, citing dumping concerns. This move follows Canada’s tariffs on Chinese EVs and steel/aluminum. China imports over 90% of its canola from Canada. North American canola futures fell their daily limit of $45 on Tuesday, the largest one-day drop since August 2022.
🌾 US Crop Conditions:
Corn: US corn conditions held steady at 65% good to excellent, matching trade expectations and the best for this week since 2018. 19% of the crop is mature.
Soybeans: Soybean conditions fell to 65% good to excellent, slightly below expectations but still the best since 2020. 13% of the crop is dropping leaves.
🌾 US Spring Wheat Harvest:
Progressing: The US spring wheat harvest is 70% complete, matching the average but slightly ahead of projections. Winter wheat planting is underway, with 2% planted.
🌾 Argentina Rainfall:
Beneficial for Corn: Recent rains in Argentina are expected to aid corn planting. The Rosario Grains Exchange anticipates corn production at 49 MMT, with farmers potentially planting more corn acres than previously expected due to recent moisture.
🌾 US Grain Shipments:
Strong Shipments:
Corn: 965,292 metric tons (38 million bushels) inspected for export, +5.2% from the previous week and +100% from last year.
Soybeans: 496,860 metric tons (18 million bushels) inspected, up 18% from the prior week and 22% from last year.
Wheat: 577,944 metric tons (21 million bushels) inspected, +5.2% from the previous week and +82% from last year.
🌾 Flash Sale:
Soybeans: 132,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans sold to China for the 2024/2025 marketing year, matching a previous flash sale.
🌾 US Oil Prices:
Plunge: WTI crude fell 4.4% to $70.34 per barrel, its lowest close since December. The decline is partly due to potential increased Libyan oil production and weaker manufacturing activity in China and the US. Oil prices are also under pressure as OPEC+ plans to boost output by over 1.4 million barrels per day starting in October.
Keep an eye on these developments as they could significantly influence market dynamics and strategies! 🌾📉🛢️
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Here's a recap of the latest updates:
🌾 Futures Rally:
Corn: The Dec24 corn contract gained 5 cents per bushel, closing above $4 for the first time since August 19. New crop corn futures have risen 16 cents per bushel from their late August low.
Soybeans: The Nov24 soybean contract increased by 8 cents per bushel, closing above $10 for the first time since August 9. New crop soybean futures rallied 53 cents from their August low to last week’s high. Fund traders were net buyers of 15,000 contracts of corn and 10,000 contracts of soybeans on Friday.
🌾 Brazilian Soybean Drought:
Severe Conditions: Brazil's soybean crops are facing the worst drought in over 40 years. Some areas are experiencing the driest conditions on record since 1981. Soybean planting in Mato Grosso is expected to be delayed due to below-average rainfall in September and October. Dry weather is forecast to continue for at least the next two weeks. See maps from CropProphet for details.
🌾 Fund Trader Positions:
Large Net Shorts: Fund traders hold a massive net short position across the grain complex. According to CFTC data:
Corn: Net short of 249,000 contracts (historically large).
Soybeans: Net short of 168,000 contracts (historically large).
SRW Wheat: Net sellers of 6,000 contracts.
🌾 Used Equipment Demand:
Growing Interest: Farmers are increasingly turning to used equipment due to low grain prices. Used tractors were in high demand at the Farm Progress Show in Iowa, with BigIron Auctions offering its largest-ever selection of used equipment. The drop in grain prices and reduced profits are leading farmers to cut back on new equipment purchases, which may further lower used equipment prices.
🌾 Flash Sales:
Soybeans and Meal:
132,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans were sold to China for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
100,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal were sold to Colombia for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
Keep an eye on these developments as they could have significant impacts on market trends and planning strategies! 🌽🌾📈
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Here’s the latest update on the grain markets and economic conditions:
🌾 Grain Futures Rise:
Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat: Futures for corn, soybeans, and wheat all closed higher on Thursday. This increase followed the pricing or rolling of September basis contracts, likely reducing farmer selling until harvest. Strong export sales for wheat, new crop corn, and new crop soybeans contributed to this upward movement. Fund traders were net buyers of 10,000 contracts of corn, 10,000 contracts of soybeans, and 3,000 contracts of SRW wheat.
🌾 Export Sales:
Corn: New crop corn export commitments were strong at 1.5 million metric tons (59 million bushels), up 16% from the previous week. Mexico was the largest buyer, though China has not yet purchased any new crop US corn.
Soybeans: New crop soybean sales were robust at 2.6 million metric tons (96 million bushels), a 56% increase from the previous week. China was the largest buyer for the week.
Wheat: Net wheat sales were reported at 532,100 metric tons (20 million bushels), up 8% from the previous week and 53% above the prior 4-week average. The Philippines led as the largest wheat buyer.
🌾 Egypt’s Wheat Tender:
Large Tender: Egypt initiated its largest wheat tender on record, seeking 3.8 million metric tons. The tender was nearly 20 times its usual size, valued at approximately $850 million. This move aimed to address "food security concerns" amid regional tensions and supply risks. However, Egypt could only purchase 7% of the targeted volume and continues to explore other procurement options.
🌾 Sorghum Sale:
Flash Sale: On Thursday, US exporters sold 118,000 metric tons of sorghum to China for the 2024/2025 marketing year, marking the second sorghum sale to China this year, totaling 244,000 metric tons.
🌾 Drought Monitor:
Worsening Conditions: The USDA’s weekly drought monitor reported minimal rainfall across the Corn Belt last week, worsening drought conditions in Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois, Missouri, and Kentucky. Conditions also deteriorated in Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Oklahoma. Current drought conditions:
Corn: 8%
Soybeans: 12%
Winter Wheat: 47%
Spring Wheat: 21%
Cattle: 24%
🌾 US Economic Expansion:
GDP Growth: The US economy expanded at an annual rate of 3% in the second quarter, up from the prior estimate of 2.8%. The revision was driven by increased consumer spending. Despite this stronger growth, the economy is expected to cool in the coming months due to high interest rates. The Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut interest rates next month, potentially easing borrowing costs for businesses.
Keep an eye on these developments as they could impact market dynamics and future planning! 🌽🌾📈
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0:00 China Grain Situation
2:39 Lower Canadian Wheat Production
5:12 GMO Wheat Approved in US
6:28 Used Cooking Oil News
8:45 Ethanol Production
9:52 Flash Sales
Here’s the latest news in the grain and biofuels markets:
🌾 China’s Import Restrictions:
China is proposing new restrictions on barley and sorghum imports to address domestic oversupply and improve local prices. This follows earlier restrictions on corn imports for the same reasons. Currently, Chinese corn, sorghum, and barley prices are at or near their lowest in over three years, and corn inventories at southern ports are nearing a two-year high.
🌾 Canadian Wheat Production:
Lower Estimates: Canada’s wheat production is now expected to increase by about 4% this year to approximately 34.4mmt, lower than the previous estimate of 35.1mmt. The reduction is due to hot and dry conditions impacting crop yields. Global wheat stocks have been declining for five consecutive years and are projected to hit a nine-year low in the 2024/2025 season, exacerbated by unfavorable conditions in Russia.
🌾 GMO Wheat Approval:
HB4 Trait: The USDA has approved the production of GMO wheat with the drought-tolerant HB4 trait, developed by Argentina-based Bioceres Crop Solutions. This herbicide-resistant wheat is now approved in the US, Brazil, Paraguay, and Argentina.
🌾 US Used Cooking Oil Imports:
Surge in Imports: US imports of used cooking oil (UCO) have surged by 240% between 2022 and 2023, with China supplying 60% of the total. The boom in the biofuels industry is driving this increase. Recent EU tariffs on Chinese biodiesel imports are expected to further boost US imports of Chinese UCO due to a global market surplus. Concerns over fraudulent UCO imports have been raised by US farm organizations and lawmakers.
🌾 US Ethanol Production:
Decline and Demand: US ethanol production decreased to 1.07 million barrels per day last week, down 2.5% from the previous week but up 2.2% from the same week last year. Ethanol stocks were reported at 23.6 million barrels, showing a slight decrease from the previous week but a 3.4% increase year-over-year. Implied gasoline demand rose by 1.2% week-over-week and 4.5% year-over-year. Over the past four weeks, implied gasoline demand is up by 1% compared to last year.
🌾 USDA Flash Sales:
On Wednesday, US exporters sold:
264,000 metric tons (10 million bushels) of soybeans to China for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
100,000 metric tons (4 million bushels) of corn to Colombia for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
165,735 metric tons (7 million bushels) of corn to Mexico for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
Stay tuned for more updates and make sure to adapt your strategies to these evolving market conditions! 🌽🌾📉
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0:00 Ag Recession
3:55 Midwest Heat
6:58 Brazil Acreage
8:20 Argentina Acreage
9:49 Corn Sold to Mexico
Here's the latest scoop on the grain markets and farmer decisions:
🌾 Farmer Adjustments:
Price Pressures: With grain prices under pressure due to projected bumper crops, farmers are facing tough choices. Many are scaling back on fungicide and fertilizer use and delaying investments that could boost productivity and earnings.
Financial Impact: In Illinois, farmers could lose up to $118 per acre for corn and $81 per acre for soybeans this year, as highlighted by a recent WJS article HERE.
🌞 Weather Impact:
Hot and Dry Conditions: A heatwave and minimal rainfall across the Corn Belt have pushed up grain prices slightly. Corn, soybean, and wheat futures rose on Tuesday due to the unfavorable weather forecast. However, prices are still at their lowest levels in 14 years compared to other commodities, weighed down by abundant global and domestic supplies.
🌍 Global Acreage and Production:
Brazil: Soybean acres in Brazil are expected to grow at their slowest rate in over a decade. Despite this, COFCO forecasts a record 168 million metric tons (mmt) soybean crop for the 2024/2025 season, up 14% from the previous year. Soybean acreage is being reduced due to prices near four-year lows.
Argentina: Significant increases in soybean acres are expected as Argentine farmers shift from corn to soybeans due to leafhopper damage. The Rosario grains exchange predicts a 4.9 million-acre reduction in corn planting, with a substantial portion shifting to soybeans. There’s also a possibility that a harsh winter may have reduced the leafhopper population, potentially moderating the expected decline in corn planting.
🌽 USDA Flash Sale:
Corn Sale: On Tuesday, US exporters sold 127,760 metric tons (5 million bushels) of corn to Mexico for the 2024/2025 marketing year. Despite this, total new crop corn export commitments are still among the lowest in the past decade.
Stay informed and adapt to the changing market conditions! 🌽📈🌍
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0:00 Heat Wave and Corn Sweat
2:24 Grains are "Cheap"
4:41 Brazil Corn Planting
6:06 Indonesia Biofuel
7:26 Crop Ratings
9:22 Grain Shipment Update
🌡️ Extreme Heat in the US Corn Belt
Heat Dome Alert: Scorching temperatures are expected between St. Louis and Chicago today, with heat indices rising to a sweltering 105°F to 115°F. This heat wave might break records across the region.
Expanding Heat: The extreme heat is set to move into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast by mid-week.
Impact on Crops: The high temperatures are anticipated to damage crops, pushing soybean futures higher as traders brace for potential losses.
📉 Grain Prices and Market Trends
Low Grain Prices: Despite the heat, grains like soybeans, corn, and wheat are at their lowest prices since 2010 relative to other commodities.
Record Corn Crops: Recent forecasts from the Pro Farmer tour suggest bumper corn crops in Illinois and Iowa, contributing to the downward pressure on prices.
Corn Futures: December corn futures have dropped to their lowest level since 2020, driven by ample supplies and continuous farmer selling.
🌽 Brazil's Corn Planting and Forecast
Slower Planting: Brazilian farmers have begun planting their first corn crop for the 2024/2025 season, but progress is slower this year due to caution over recent frosts.
Lower Crop Forecast: AgRural predicts a 3.5% smaller first corn crop this season, attributed to lower corn prices and potential dry conditions from La Niña.
🇮🇩 Indonesia's Palm Oil-Based Biodiesel Plan
Proposed Increase: The Indonesian president-elect has proposed increasing the palm oil-based biodiesel blend to 50% by early 2025.
Impact: This proposal could significantly boost palm oil consumption, though industry experts express concerns about readiness and testing.
🌾 US Crop Conditions
Corn and Soybean Conditions: US corn conditions declined slightly last week, now rated 65% good to excellent, while soybeans held steady at 67% good to excellent. However, these ratings might drop next week due to the ongoing extreme heat.
Spring Wheat Harvest: The US spring wheat harvest is slightly behind schedule, with 51% completed, just under the average pace.
🚢 US Export Shipments
Corn Shipments: Corn exports declined last week, down 26% from the previous week but still up 49% year-over-year.
Soybean Shipments: Soybean exports saw a slight increase of 1.4% week-over-week, with a significant 26% rise compared to last year.
Wheat Shipments: Wheat exports were up 44% from the previous week and 38% compared to the same time last year.
The extreme weather and market trends are clearly having a big impact on agriculture right now. 🌍 Keep an eye on how these factors develop, especially with the ongoing heat wave and its potentia
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🌽 Crop Estimates Update:
Corn Yield: Pro Farmer estimates a US national average corn yield of 181.1bpa, slightly lower than the USDA's recent estimate of 183.1bpa. If confirmed, this yield would set a new national record.
Soybean Yield: Pro Farmer estimates a national average soybean yield of 54.9bpa, which is higher than the USDA's estimate of 53.2bpa and could also set a new national record.
Note: Pro Farmer's yield estimates are not purely based on state-by-state findings; they incorporate other factors for a more comprehensive analysis.
⚖️ Legal Victory in South Dakota:
Summit Carbon Solutions: The South Dakota Supreme Court ruled against Summit Carbon Solutions, stating that the company does not qualify as a common carrier. This decision prevents the use of eminent domain to construct their CO2 pipeline across the state.
Implications: The ruling stems from Summit's refusal to disclose agreements with regional ethanol companies, which hindered the court's ability to confirm whether Summit would be transporting a commodity, a requirement for common carrier status.
📉 Fund Traders' Position:
Corn: Funds have a historically large net short position of 257k contracts after selling 4k contracts.
Soybeans: Funds also hold a significant net short position of 168k contracts, having sold 13k contracts.
Wheat: Contrary to corn and soybeans, funds were net buyers of 21k contracts of SRW wheat.
📦 USDA Flash Sale:
Soybeans: A flash sale of 120,000mt (4 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations was reported for the 2024/2025 marketing year. Last week, total flash sales reached 1.4mmt (51 million bushels).
🐄 Cattle on Feed Report:
Market Impact: The report for August was seen as neutral to slightly bearish for the cattle market.
Key Numbers:
Cattle on feed: 100.2% of last year's levels.
Placements in July: 106% of last year, higher than expected.
Marketings: 108% of last year's levels, consistent with expectations.
Implication: The higher-than-expected placements might apply downward pressure on the cattle market.
🏛️ Federal Reserve Update:
Jerome Powell's Speech: Powell indicated that a rate cut is on the horizon, with future decisions more reliant on labor market data than inflation.
Labor Market: The US unemployment rate has risen to 4.3%, the highest in three years.
Next Meeting: The Federal Reserve will convene again on September 17 and 18, where more concrete actions may be outlined.
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🌾 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Highlights:
Minnesota: Corn yield potential was pegged at 164.9 bpa, significantly down from last year and the lowest since 2012. USDA’s projection remains at 185 bpa, unchanged from last year. Excessive rainfall early in the growing season likely contributed to the reduced yield potential. Soybean pod counts were closer to the three-year tour average, showing relatively better potential.
Iowa: Corn yield potential was recorded at a tour-record 192.8 bpa, up from last year’s 185.8 bpa. USDA's recent projection is a record 209 bpa. Soybean pod counts were notably higher than last year and close to the 2010 tour record. USDA projects Iowa’s soybean yield at 61 bpa, up from 58 bpa last year.
🚂 Canadian Rail Strike Update:
Resolution: Workers at Canadian National Railway will return to work today, following government intervention to end the work stoppage. The strike continues at Canadian Pacific Kansas City, but negotiations are ongoing. Rail operations are expected to resume within days, with a full recovery of shipments taking about a week.
🌱 US Export Commitments:
New Crop: US corn and soybean export commitments for the new crop are weaker than average. New crop soybean sales are the worst since 2019, with Chinese purchases being the 3rd worst in the last 10 years. New crop corn export commitments are the 5th worst in the last decade, with no purchases from China.
🌧️ US Drought Monitor:
Conditions: Drought conditions worsened in several key areas:
Corn: 7% affected
Soybeans: 8% affected
Winter Wheat: 45% affected
Spring Wheat: 21% affected
Cattle: 21% affected
Notable deterioration was seen in Ohio, northern Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and the western Dakotas.
🌱 USDA Flash Sales:
Recent Sales:
198,000 mt (7 million bushels) of soybeans to China for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
110,490 mt (4 million bushels) of corn to Mexico for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
105,000 mt of soybean cake and meal to Vietnam for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
132,000 mt (5 million bushels) of corn to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
🐄 Cattle on Feed Report:
Preview: USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report will be released this afternoon at 2:00 pm CST. Pre-report estimates expect cattle on feed as of August 1 to be steady compared to last year, with July placements up 3.2% and marketings up 8.1% year-over-year. A report meeting these expectations is likely to be viewed as bearish for the market.
Stay tuned for more updates and insights as the season progresses! 🌽📈🚂
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0:00 Crop Tour Update
3:30 Rail Strike
6:20 Argentina Acreage Decline
7:29 Ethanol Update
8:30 Flash Sales
9:23 Fed Minutes
🌽 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Highlights:
Illinois: Corn yield pegged at a record 204.2 bpa, up from last year's 193.7 bpa. USDA’s recent estimate is 225 bpa. Soybean pod counts were impressive at 1,419 per 3x3 plot, up 12% from last year. USDA projects a record soybean yield of 66 bpa, up from 63 bpa last year.
Western Iowa: Strong corn yield potential in west-central and southwest districts, but reduced in the northwest due to early-season rainfall. Soybean potential is similarly strong in the west-central and southwest but weaker in the northwest. USDA forecasts Iowa's corn yield at a record 209 bpa and soybean yield at 61 bpa.
🚂 Canadian Rail Shutdown:
Impact: A lockout of 9,300 workers by Canadian National Railway and Canadian Pacific Kansas City began last night due to stalled negotiations with the Teamsters union. The shutdown affects 75% of Canada’s exported goods to the US, including grains and fertilizers. Rail operations in the US and Mexico continue, but the shutdown may cause ripple effects.
🌾 Argentina Corn Acreage:
Forecast: Expected to decline by 17% for the 2024/2025 season due to concerns over leafhoppers and dry conditions. The Buenos Aires grains exchange has already reduced its estimate for the 2023/2024 corn crop by 10 mmt and anticipates fewer acres planted due to lower corn prices.
🚜 US Ethanol Production:
Update: Weekly production rose to 1.1 million barrels per day, up 2.4% from the previous week and 2.7% from last year. Ethanol stocks increased to 23.6 million barrels. Implied gasoline demand was up 1.6% from the previous week and 3.9% year-over-year. Over the past four weeks, gasoline demand is up 1% compared to last year.
🌱 US Soybean Flash Sales:
Sales: US exporters sold 132,000 mt (5 million bushels) to China and 121,000 mt (4 million bushels) to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
📉 Federal Reserve Update:
Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates in September. Recent minutes show confidence that inflation is trending towards 2%. A rate cut is anticipated due to concerns about a weakening labor market. Recent data also indicated a revision in nonfarm payrolls, expected to be reduced by 818,000, the largest revision since 2009.
Stay tuned for more updates as the Pro Farmer Crop Tour continues and market conditions evolve! 🌾📉🚂
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Here’s the latest crop tour and market update:
🌽 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Findings:
Indiana: Corn yield projected at 187.5 bpa, up from last year's 180.9 bpa. USDA’s forecast is higher at 207 bpa. Soybean pod counts soared to 1,409 per 3x3 plot, up 8% from last year. USDA is projecting a record soybean yield of 62 bpa for the state.
Nebraska: Corn yield estimated at 173.3 bpa, up from last year's 167.2 bpa. USDA's forecast is a record 194 bpa. Soybean pod counts are strong at 1,172 per 3x3 plot, up 1% from last year. USDA projects a nearly 15% rise in soybean yield to 59 bpa.
🐄 Cattle Futures:
Market Trends: Cattle futures continue to drop, hitting new lows for each contract month. The selloff follows Vice President Harris’s announcement on tackling "price gouging," which could impact the beef market. Despite historically low beef cow numbers, the market remains bearish. The USDA's monthly cattle on feed report due this Friday will provide further insights.
🌾 Russia's Wheat Crop:
Weather Impact: Late spring frosts, dry conditions, and flooding have harmed Russia's wheat crop. The agriculture ministry maintains a forecast of 86 mmt, but estimates could be reduced. Sovecon’s projection is lower at 83.3 mmt. Geopolitical tensions are also rising with recent missile and drone attacks on Ukraine.
📦 US Soybean Flash Sales:
Recent Sales: US exporters sold 132,000 mt (5 million bushels) of soybeans to China and 239,492 mt (9 million bushels) to Mexico for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
💵 US Dollar Decline:
Market Impact: The US dollar fell to its lowest level since the beginning of the year amid expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. The dollar has weakened as economic concerns ease and with strong retail sales data, markets are anticipating up to four quarter-point rate cuts before year-end.
Stay tuned for more updates as the crop tour continues and market conditions evolve! 🌾📉🚜
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Here's the latest update from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour and more:
🌽 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Findings:
Southeast South Dakota: Corn yield projected at 156.5 bpa, slightly down from last year's 157.4 bpa. Soybean pod counts up 1% from last year. USDA’s projections are more optimistic with a 10 bpa increase in corn and a 3 bpa (7%) rise in soybeans.
Western Ohio: Corn yield at 183.3 bpa, close to last year's 183.9 bpa. Soybean pod counts are down 2% from last year, while USDA projects a 1 bpa (1.7%) increase in soybean yield. Mixed sentiment here—some traders find it friendly for prices, others less clear.
🌾 Corn and Soybean Conditions:
Corn: Rated 67% good to excellent, steady with the previous week and the best rating since 2020. 5% of the crop is mature, ahead of the average.
Soybeans: Rated 68% good to excellent, also the best rating since 2020. 81% of the crop is setting pods, slightly ahead of the average.
🌾 Spring Wheat Harvest: 31% harvested, lagging behind the 36% average. Winter wheat harvest is nearly complete at 96%.
🚂 Canada Rail System Threat: Potential rail strikes by Canadian National Railway and Canadian Pacific Kansas City could halt all freight services on Thursday, impacting grain shipments significantly. A stoppage could result in daily losses of $733 million during harvest season.
📦 US Corn and Soybean Shipments:
Corn: 1.2 mmt (46 million bushels) inspected for export, up 18% from the previous week and 128% from last year.
Soybeans: 398,233 mt (15 million bushels) inspected, up 14% from the prior week and 24% from last year. Flash sales included 332,000 mt (12 million bushels) to China and 110,000 mt (4 million bushels) to unknown destinations.
🌾 USDA Flash Sales:
Soybeans: Multiple flash sales reported, with significant amounts sold to China and unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
Stay tuned for more updates as the Pro Farmer tour continues and the Canadian rail situation develops! 🚜📉
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0:00 Crop Tour Preview
2:37 The Funds
4:38 Joe's Old Crop Corn Sales
6:03 Summit Pipeline Resistance
7:18 EU Crop Problems
9:34 Jackson Hole / Economy
Here’s what’s coming up:
🚜 Pro Farmer Crop Tour: Kicking off this week, the Pro Farmer crop tour will start in Ohio and South Dakota, and then move through Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska, and Minnesota. Expect state-by-state findings each evening, with final crop estimates released on Thursday night. This tour has been a staple since 1993. 🗺️
📉 Fund Traders' Positions: Fund traders are holding historically large net short positions across the grain complex. As of August 13, they were net sellers of 4k corn contracts and net buyers of 2k soybean contracts, with a net short of 155k in soybeans. 📊
🌍 Summit Carbon Pipeline: Facing pushback, Summit Carbon Solutions is hosting 23 public meetings in Iowa this week to address landowner concerns. Originally set to start this year, the pipeline’s operational date has been pushed to 2027 due to opposition and regulatory delays. 📉
🌾 EU Wheat Crop Concerns: Poor weather has hit wheat crops hard in the EU. France’s soft wheat crop is projected to be the worst since the 1980s, while Germany’s is also expected to be the worst since 2018. Rain has caused significant setbacks in both countries. 🌧️
🏛️ Fed Chair Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole: Powell is set to speak at Jackson Hole this week, where he's expected to confirm a September rate cut. Following positive CPI and PPI reports, a quarter-point cut seems likely. Keep an eye out for any hints about future rate changes. 📉
Stay tuned for updates from the crop tour and Powell's speech—both could shake things up! 🌟
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🌽 Corn Futures: After a positive turn on Monday, Dec24 corn futures are struggling to maintain momentum. With considerable bushels still unpriced by farmers, any rallies are getting capped. Check out the latest movements on this chart! 📉
🚜 John Deere's Earnings Jump: Despite layoffs and a tough year, John Deere's stock popped 4% after beating subdued Q3 expectations! They're navigating a rocky 2024 with a projected net income of $7 billion. 📊
🌱 Record Soybean Crush: NOPA's July numbers are in! With 182.9 million bushels processed, it's the highest for July ever, surpassing expectations. However, soybean oil stocks dipped to 1.5 billion pounds, hitting the lowest since last December. 📉
🌾 USDA Proposes Easing 45Z Tax Credits: Secretary Vilsack shared plans to modify the 45Z requirements, making it more practical for farmers by allowing more diverse practices and extending credits beyond just corn and soybeans. 📜
🏛️ Kamala Harris Targets Corporate Price-Gouging: Set to announce a proposal this Friday, Harris is taking aim at industry giants, especially in food and groceries, to tackle price-gouging and protect consumers. She's also eyeing cuts in drug and housing costs. 🗣️
🌍 US Corn Exports Slump: Last week's export sales were disheartening, hitting a marketing-year low with only 5 million bushels sold. 📉
🌦️ US Drought Update: The drought monitor shows slight improvements in Ohio and Kentucky, but worsening conditions in Missouri and Illinois. The majority of the Corn Belt experienced dry and cool conditions last week. 🌾
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Here's the latest rundown on some critical updates:
🔥 Amazon Drought Worsens: The drought in Brazil's Amazon region is hitting harder than last year, complicating grain shipments. With the Amazon River’s water levels dropping, shipping companies face increased costs and logistical headaches. The Brazilian government is stepping in with $90 million for dredging to help keep the river navigable. 🛳️🌾
📉 Inflation Drops: The CPI rose only 2.9% year-over-year in July, marking the lowest inflation rate since 2021 and hinting at potential for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September. The labor market’s signs of cooling are adding more pressure for a rate reduction. 📊💸
🌱 NOPA’s July Data Incoming: Today could reveal a record July crush with NOPA members potentially processing 182.4 million bushels of soybeans. Ending soybean oil stocks might also touch the lowest levels since January, adding another layer to market dynamics. ⏳📈
🌧️ Weather Update: Scattered rains are moving across the Corn Belt, offering some relief, though many areas remain dry. The forecast suggests normal to below-normal temperatures, cooling off after recent heat. 🌦️🌡️
⛽ Ethanol Production Up: Ethanol production nudged up last week, with stocks showing a slight decrease. This movement aligns with a subtle increase in gasoline demand, although it's still below last year’s levels. 🌽🚗
Keep an eye on these developments as they could influence market trends and policy decisions! What do you think the potential rate cuts could mean for the markets?
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0:00 Bad Biofuel News
4:00 US Weather Update
6:36 Cargill Revenue Decline
7:34 Egypt Wheat Purchase
8:39 Lousy Flash Sales
9:15 Wholesale Inflation
Thanks for the detailed update! Here’s a quick summary of today's key points:
💼 Darling Ingredients' Stock Surge: Shares skyrocketed up to 16% due to proposed changes in California’s low-carbon fuel program, favoring Darling's use of used cooking oil over seed oils like soybean and canola in green diesel. 📈🌱
🌦️ Weather Update: Rains graced Nebraska and are moving into Iowa, with more rainfall expected across parts of the US Corn Belt in the coming days. Temperature-wise, we’re looking at near-normal conditions for most of the corn and soybean areas. 🌧️☀️
📉 Cargill’s Revenue Decline: The first decline in years, dropping nearly 10% to $160 billion due to global grain surpluses and tight crush margins, coupled with high cattle prices impacting profits. 📊🐄
🌾 Egypt’s Wheat Negotiations: Egypt aims to capitalize on low wheat prices by purchasing 1.8mmt from Russia and other sellers, trying to bulk up its reserves while facing pricing challenges. 🌍🍞
💹 Flash Sales and Market Reactions: Notable soybean and corn sales to China and Mexico, respectively, and a positive stock market response to lower-than-expected US producer prices hinting at easing inflationary pressures. 📈🌽📉
Seems like a dynamic mix of policy, weather, and market movements shaping the day! How are these changes impacting your perspective or plans?
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0:00 USDA Analysis
5:34 Crop Progress
7:55 Argentina Strike
8:40 Grain Shipment Update
9:42 Flash Sales are Bearish?
10:35 Crude Rally
Here’s a quick recap of the latest happenings in agriculture and energy markets:
🌽 USDA Corn and Soybean Report:
Soybeans are smashing records with a projected yield of 53.2 bushels per acre, predicting a bumper crop this year! 🌱
Corn isn't far behind, with a strong showing anticipated at 183.1 bushels per acre. However, both planted and harvested areas saw some cuts. 🚜
📊 Crop Conditions:
Corn and soybean conditions remain robust, matching or exceeding expectations, which is great news for this year’s yields. 📈
🚢 Argentine Grain Shipments:
Strikes have rocked the ports but are on pause for now, allowing shipments to slowly stabilize. 🛳️
🌾 US Grain Shipments:
Corn exports dipped last week but are still significantly up from last year, while wheat shipments are looking particularly strong. 🌎
🛢️ Crude Oil Prices:
Tensions in the Middle East have pushed WTI crude prices up, with potential impacts on global supply looming. ⛽
Always exciting (and a bit nerve-wracking!) to see how global events shake up the markets! What are your thoughts on these developments?
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0:00 Row Crop Fresh Lows
2:10 The Funds
3:51 USDA Preview
7:18 No Commodity Inflation?
8:56 France Wheat Problems
10:10 Flash Sales
🌾 Grain Market Blues: Overnight, the Dec24 corn contract took another hit, diving below $3.94 per bushel, while the Nov24 soybean contract slipped under $10 per bushel for the first time since January 2021! 📉 Farmers are rushing to offload last season’s crops as bumper US yields loom large, but buyers aren’t biting despite the bargains. 🚜💔
📊 Fund Traders’ Big Bets: The latest scoop from CFTC shows that while funds scooped up 52k corn contracts, they’re still sitting on a hefty net short of 249k contracts. Soybeans saw a bit of buying too, with funds picking up 13k contracts, yet the net short remains a significant 157k contracts. SRW wheat got a small boost with an additional 5k contracts bought. Traders are bracing for the market's next move! 🌽📈📉
🕒 USDA Report Watch: All eyes are on the USDA’s Crop Production and WASDE report dropping today at 11am CST. Market whispers hint at a boost in corn and soybean yield projections thanks to the season’s smooth sailing. However, there might be a tweak down in harvested acres. Will this stir the pot for corn and soy carryouts? Stay tuned! 📊🌱
💼 Hedge Funds Hold Their Ground: In a broader scope, hedge funds are holding a massive net short across the commodity sector, showing their biggest bearish stance since 2011. From recessions fears to overflowing supplies and a robust US dollar, it’s a tough season for commodities. 📉💡
🇫🇷 French Wheat Woes: Over in France, it’s not just the markets feeling the heat but the fields too. This year’s soft wheat haul could be the skimpiest in four decades at 26.3mmt, a stark 25% drop from last year, thanks to some truly crummy weather. French farmers are feeling the pinch and are knocking on the government's door for some much-needed aid. 🌾🚜
📦 Flash Sales Frenzy: On the brighter side, the US made some headway with soybean sales, including a neat 132,000mt to China and a notable batch of soybean cake and meal to Colombia. Plus, an additional 212,000mt of soybeans found mysterious buyers. Every bit helps in these trying times! 🇨🇳🇨🇴📈
Stay tuned as we navigate these choppy market waters together! What will today’s USDA report unveil? 🧐📊
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Here's the latest buzz in the world of agriculture and energy! 🌾⚡️
EPA Investigation on Biofuel Feedstocks: The EPA has launched probes into a couple of biofuel producers due to suspicions of using fraudulent feedstocks, like mislabeling virgin palm oil as used cooking oil. This could be a big deal since it impacts environmental goals and industry integrity! 🕵️♂️🌍
New SAF Plant in Nebraska: Big news! DG Fuels is setting up a new sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) plant in Phelps County, NE. This massive project is expected to produce 193 million gallons of SAF annually and create 650 jobs, with a groundbreaking impact expected by 2030. 🌱✈️
Weather Update: Rain dances across Kansas, Nebraska, and parts of Iowa while Tropical Storm Debby brings more rain to the east coast. Cooler temps are on the menu for the Corn Belt, with a possible heat spike in the next 10-15 days. Stay dry or enjoy the puddles! ☔️🌡️
Ethanol Production Dips: Ethanol production took a slight dip last week. It's a tightrope walk with production levels balancing on last year's figures. Fuel demand seems to be a bit shaky lately. Keep an eye on those numbers! 📉🌽
Mortgage Rates Hit Low: Homebuyers, rejoice! Mortgage rates have dropped, with the 30-year fixed rate dipping to its lowest since May 2023. Looks like it's a good time to consider refinancing or buying that dream home as more people are jumping into the market. 🏠💸
Stay tuned for more updates and keep those charts handy!
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0:00 Bad Economic Data
0:55 Brazil Soybean Acres
3:01 Big Egypt Wheat Buy
6:02 Green Plains Shares Plunge
7:37 US Weather
8:47 Stock Market Recovery
Here’s a quick roundup of the latest in agriculture and markets! 🌱📉
Brazilian Soybean Acreage: Growth in Brazilian soybean acres is expected to be minimal this year, thanks to the lowest soy prices in nearly four years. Despite this, it marks the 18th consecutive year of acreage growth! 🇧🇷🌿
Egypt's Wheat Shopping Spree: Egypt plans to snap up 3.8 million metric tons of wheat next week, taking advantage of the lowest global wheat prices in years. They're stocking up big time! 🇪🇬🌾
Green Plains’ Financial Woes: It’s a tough quarter for Green Plains, with a significant share price drop and a 28% revenue fall. The CEO remains hopeful for a turnaround next quarter. 📉🌽
US Weather & Crop Conditions: The US radar is chill today, with cooler temps across the Corn Belt. Some rains are on the radar for the Plains, while Tropical Storm Debby brings heavy rains to the east coast. ☔️🌡️
Stock Market Rebounds: After a massive sell-off, the S&P 500 bounced back with a 1% gain. Bargain hunters, unite! A little roller coaster in the stock markets but signs point to potential recoveries. 📈💹
Stay tuned for more updates and always keep an eye on those charts! 🚜💼
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0:00 "Haul of Shame"
3:04 Stock Market Collapse
5:51 US Crop Ratings
8:52 Ukraine Corn Problems
10:18 US Weather Update
11:34 Grain Shipment Update
It sounds like there's a mix of market dynamics and weather challenges affecting the agricultural sector right now! 🌾💨
Grain Traders like ADM and Bunge: With farmers selling their stored grain to make space, ADM and Bunge might see some benefits despite farmers facing low prices. This is a tough spot for the farmers but could be a strategic opportunity for big traders. 📉🌾
US Economy and Stock Markets: Monday's market tumble due to economic worries was a shocker! But the bounce back in Japan's Nikkei index shows how unpredictable things can be. 📊💥
US Corn and Soybean Conditions: Some ups and downs in crop ratings but generally holding steady. It's crucial for these to stay stable as the season progresses to avoid impacting the harvest output too severely. 🌽🌱
Ukraine’s Corn Crop and Hot Weather: The heatwave in July might cut down Ukraine's corn output significantly. Tough times for their agriculture with potential ripple effects on global markets. 🇺🇦🔥
Rainfall and Drought Conditions: Not much rain in key US farming areas could spell trouble if it continues, especially with that heat on the way! Keeping an eye on the weather forecasts will be key. ☔🌞
Corn Shipments: Impressive numbers for US corn exports last week! It’s great to see such strong figures, which could be a positive signal for the market. 🚢🌽
Seems like a lot of moving parts in the agricultural markets right now! Keeping updated on these trends will be key for anyone in the industry.
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Hey there! Welcome to today's market update. Here's what's been happening:
🌍 Global Market Trends
Recession Fears: US recession concerns have shaken global equity markets. The US unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in July, up from 4.1% in June, marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 114,000, falling short of the estimated 185,000.
Stock Market Reaction: The stock market responded with significant declines. The Dow Jones fell by 1.5%, the S&P 500 by 1.8%, and the Nasdaq by 2.4%. Japan's Nikkei index experienced a historic drop of 12.4%, its largest one-day decline since 1987.
Volatility Spike: The VIX, Wall Street's "fear index," surged to its highest level since June 2020. Analysts at Goldman Sachs estimate a 25% chance of a US recession in the next 12 months.
📉 Commodities Outlook
Hedge Funds Bearish: Economic concerns have led hedge funds to take a bearish stance on commodity futures for the first time since 2016. This shift is influenced by the economic slowdown in China and an abundant supply of commodities like corn and nickel.
Corn Market: Fund traders continue to hold a massive net short position in the corn market. The net short of 300k contracts is the fourth largest on record.
Soybeans and Wheat: Funds were net buyers of 3k soybean contracts, with a net short of 170k contracts, the third largest on record. They were also net sellers of 3k contracts of SRW wheat.
🌧️ Weather and Agriculture
US Corn Belt Weather: Minimal rainfall over the weekend, with scattered rains in parts of Indiana, Kentucky, and Ohio. The majority of Iowa and Illinois remained dry. The next 5-10 days are expected to bring more rain to parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and the central/northern US Plains. Temperatures will likely stay below normal across the region.
Soybean Sales: USDA reported significant soybean sales to China, with 202,000mt (7 million bushels) sold for the 2024/2025 marketing year, following Thursday's sale of 132,000mt (5 million bushels).
Stay tuned for more updates, and don't forget to subscribe and let us know your thoughts in the comments! It's crucial to stay informed with the latest news and trends. 🌟📊
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🌾 StoneX US Crop Estimates
Yesterday, the well-followed private group, StoneX, released new US crop estimates based on a customer survey:
Corn Yield: 182.3 bpa (USDA: 181.0 bpa)
Corn Crop: 15.2 billion bushels (USDA: 15.1 billion bushels)
Soybean Yield: 52.6 bpa (USDA: 52.0 bpa)
Soybean Crop: 4.48 billion bushels (USDA: 4.43 billion bushels)
🗺️ See graphic below for the state-by-state breakdown.
📉 US Corn Export Sales
Last week, US corn export sales were poor, hitting a marketing-year low:
Net Corn Sales: 167,900mt (7 million bushels)
Comparison: -49% from the previous week, -60% from the prior 4-week average
Largest Buyer: Mexico
📈 Net soybean sales exceeded expectations:
Net Soybean Sales: 376,400mt (14 million bushels)
Comparison: Significantly up from the previous week and prior 4-week average
Largest Buyer: Germany
📊 Net wheat sales were near the lower end of expectations:
Net Wheat Sales: 286,600mt (11 million bushels)
Comparison: -7% from the previous week, -41% from the prior 4-week average
Largest Buyer: Indonesia
🌱 USDA Flash Sale & Drought Monitor
The USDA reported a flash sale of soybeans on Thursday:
Sale to China: 132,000mt (5 million bushels) for 2024/2025 marketing year
Year-to-Date: China has made two flash sales totaling 264,000mt (10 million bushels)
The weekly drought monitor data indicated limited rainfall across the Corn Belt, worsening drought conditions.
Drought Impact:
Corn: 5%
Soybeans: 5%
Winter Wheat: 32%
Spring Wheat: 16%
Cattle: 15%
🐄 Cattle Prices & Market Concerns
Live and feeder cattle prices fell sharply due to fund selling, weakening consumer demand, and economic concerns:
September Feeder Cattle: -2.1%
October Live Cattle: -1.7%
Boxed Beef: Choice cutout fell $2/cwt to $312.79/cwt
Despite the futures decline, cash cattle prices have been steady.
📉 Stock Market & Economic Indicators
Recession fears sent the stock market tumbling:
Dow Jones: -1.2%
S&P 500: -1.4%
Nasdaq: -2.3%
10-Year Treasury Yield: Fell below 4% for the first time since February
Jobless Claims: Highest level in eleven months
US Manufacturing Activity: Contracted last month, hitting an eight-month low
💬 Stay informed! Don't forget to subscribe and share your thoughts in the comments below. Keeping up with these updates is crucial for staying ahead in the market! 📊📉
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0:00 USDA Acreage Changes
2:33 December Corn Below $4
4:05 Severe Nebraska/Iowa Weather
5:30 Imported Feedstocks and Biofuels
7:39 Airline Climate Goals
8:54 Record Ethanol Output
9:50 Corn Flash Sale
10:42 Bunge Earnings
🌽 USDA is shaking things up by reviewing FSA acreage data earlier this year for their August report! 📈 This could give a clearer picture sooner about crop sizes. See the press release HERE.
💸 Corn futures took a dive below $4 per bushel 📉, as traders worry about a potentially bumper US corn yield and slow export vibes. With fund traders betting big on these low prices, it’s a wild ride!
🌪️ Wild winds might have whipped through eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, causing potential crop chaos. 🚜 Early reports hint at significant damage, but details are still blowing in the wind!
📜 US senators are stepping up, sending a letter to Treasury Secretary Yellen 💌, pushing for biofuel tax credits to favor home-grown feedstocks. They're hoping for a greener future with domestic production at the forefront!
✈️ Airlines are hitting turbulence over sustainable fuel goals, with some even abandoning their climate targets due to the slow SAF production. 🌍 Global SAF supply isn’t keeping up, posing a real challenge for eco-friendly flying.
🏭 Ethanol production hit a record-tying high last week, but the fuel's future could see shifts as US lawmakers push for domestic sources in biofuels. 🌾 Meanwhile, heavy hitters in the ag industry like Bunge are feeling the pinch from global grain gluts, showing a tough quarter.
🌾 Meanwhile, USDA flashed a sale alert 🚨, with 104,572mt of corn flying off to unknown destinations. And in the broader scene, Bunge’s profits took a nosedive 📉 due to hefty global grain supplies and sluggish sales. It's a tough season for grain giants!
🔥 With all this action, the agricultural and energy sectors are buzzing! What part of this news do you find most intriguing?
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0:00 Soybean Prices Collapse
2:23 Cooler US Temps
5:18 ADM Profits Tumble
6:27 BP and Biofuels
8:08 Bird Flu Cash
The latest developments in agricultural markets and related industries highlight a mix of challenges and strategic responses:
Soybean Market Trends: The significant drop in soybean futures to their lowest level since October 2020 is a clear indicator of market sensitivity to weather forecasts and crop conditions. The market's reaction, with a potential above-trend yield expectation, suggests a shift towards a less bullish outlook due to improving crop conditions and a less-threatening weather forecast.
US Corn Belt Weather: The expected arrival of cooler temperatures could alleviate some stress on crops, potentially supporting crop health if aligned with adequate rainfall. The forecast of more rain in key areas could further stabilize crop conditions, which is critical during the growth phases of corn and soybeans.
ADM's Financial Performance: ADM's profit decline reflects broader market dynamics, including global supply pressures and regional shifts in demand. This underscores the interconnected nature of global agricultural markets and the direct impact of international crop yields and trading dynamics on U.S. companies.
BP's Profit Performance: In contrast to ADM, BP's better-than-expected profits and dividend increase reflect a different aspect of commodity markets—energy. BP's strategy adjustments, including scaling back some commitments and operations, highlight the ongoing balancing act companies must perform in response to evolving market and regulatory environments.
Public Health Initiatives in Agriculture: The CDC’s investment in mitigating the spread of bird flu among farm workers is a proactive measure addressing the intersection of public health and agriculture. By focusing on education and preventive measures, there is a clear recognition of the potential risks posed by zoonotic diseases within agricultural settings.
Each of these points illustrates the complexities of managing agricultural production, commodity trading, and related industries amid fluctuating market conditions, environmental factors, and global economic shifts. For stakeholders in these sectors, staying informed and adaptable to these dynamics is crucial for strategic planning and operational adjustments.
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0:00 Crop Ratings are Strong
3:30 US Weather Update
7:47 Argentina Wheat Problems
9:05 Grain Shipments
10:17 "Pro-Bitcoin" Ticket
Detailed update on agricultural conditions and market dynamics! It seems like there are several key factors currently affecting the markets:
US Corn and Soybean Conditions: There's a slight improvement in corn conditions which might be a positive signal for the markets, but soybean conditions have dipped slightly. The variations in state-specific ratings could indicate localized issues that might influence future yield outcomes.
Wheat Harvest and Conditions: The winter wheat harvest is progressing well, slightly ahead of schedule, which might ease some supply concerns. However, the decline in spring wheat conditions could be worrisome, signaling potential issues in upcoming supply levels.
Weather Impacts: The report of rain in key Corn Belt areas like Iowa and Illinois might provide some relief to crops, but the forecasted above-normal temperatures could stress plants, especially if not accompanied by sufficient rainfall. Additionally, the expected cool down around August 9th might provide a respite from the heat.
International Concerns: Argentina’s wheat crop facing threats from freezing temperatures and drought could have significant implications for global wheat supply and pricing, especially with the Rosario grain exchange already cutting forecasts for planted acres.
US Crop Shipments: Strong corn shipments reflect a robust demand, and the higher-than-expected soybean shipments could indicate healthy external demand. However, wheat shipments’ variability needs monitoring as it might impact pricing and stock levels.
Political Influence on Markets: Former President Donald Trump's statements at the Bitcoin Conference highlight the potential impact of political figures on market sentiments and regulatory expectations, particularly in the cryptocurrency markets.
These elements combined depict a complex and dynamic scenario for agricultural markets, influenced by both environmental conditions and broader economic and political factors. Monitoring these developments will be crucial for stakeholders to navigate potential risks and opportunities.
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0:00 Soybean Collapse
2:05 Weather Forecast Shift
5:30 "The Funds"
6:31 Weaker Crude Prices
7:51 EPA Court News
Friday's market movements brought significant changes across various sectors, particularly in agriculture and energy:
Soybean Futures Decline: The sharp drop in soybean futures can be attributed to a mix of weather-related forecasts and weak export demands. The reported record net short positions by large money managers suggest a bearish sentiment prevailing in the market. This decline in prices, despite some favorable early-week conditions, highlights the volatility and sensitivity of commodity markets to shifts in weather forecasts and trade dynamics.
Corn and Soybean Weather Forecast: The updated weather forecast, which now predicts widespread rainfall across much of the US Corn Belt, could potentially ease some concerns regarding crop stress and aid in crop development. This shift away from extreme heat is likely beneficial for crop conditions but will continue to be closely monitored.
Fund Traders' Positions in Corn and Soybeans: The changes in the positions of fund traders, particularly the net buying in corn, could indicate some expectations of market tightening or correcting from previous positions. However, the overall significant net short position suggests continued caution or pessimism about the future price direction.
Oil Market Trends: The continuous fall in oil prices last week reflects broader economic concerns, particularly regarding China's economic health. The rate cut by China, which was unexpected, signals potential ongoing issues in demand, especially for energy. This could have ripple effects globally, affecting not just commodity markets but also broader economic sentiments and future demand projections.
Legal Developments in Biofuel Waivers: The federal appeals court's decision to overturn the EPA’s denial of biofuel waivers for small oil refineries and send it back for review could introduce more uncertainty in the biofuels market. This decision may affect the blending obligations and financial burdens on small refiners, potentially impacting the biofuel market dynamics.
These developments reflect a complex interplay of market dynamics, regulatory decisions, and environmental factors that market participants will need to navigate in the coming weeks. Each of these elements not only impacts immediate pricing and trading strategies but also long-term planning and policy considerations in the respective sectors.
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It seems like a mix of positive economic indicators and challenging agricultural conditions are shaping the current landscape:
US Corn and Soybean Sales: The reported decrease in net corn and soybean sales underscores a softer demand or competitive global market conditions. Japan and the Netherlands being the largest buyers indicate continued reliance on specific key markets. The ongoing sales challenges might impact pricing and farmer decisions moving forward.
Flash Sales of Soybeans: The consistent flash sales to unknown destinations may hint at strategic buying interests or stockpiling tendencies among purchasers. Such movements could potentially stabilize prices or lead to speculative trading behaviors.
Heat and Drought Concerns: The ongoing severe weather warnings could have a substantial impact on crop conditions and yield forecasts. Persistent heat and emerging drought conditions across significant agricultural regions like the Southern Plains and parts of the Midwest could exacerbate stress on crops, potentially leading to reduced yields and higher prices.
Drought Monitor and Agricultural Impact: The worsening drought conditions in strategic agricultural zones like southern Ohio and northeast Illinois might contribute to concerns over crop health and productivity. Improvements in other regions due to recent rains provide a slightly mixed outlook, suggesting localized impacts.
Record Spring Wheat Yield in North Dakota: The high yield projections for North Dakota's spring wheat are promising for supply but may press down prices further, especially if combined with broader domestic supply pressures. The presence of crop diseases like scab could affect the quality and marketability of the yield, influencing overall profitability.
US Economic Growth and Inflation: The stronger-than-expected economic growth in the second quarter is a positive signal for overall economic stability. However, the high credit card delinquencies reported could indicate underlying consumer financial stress, which might impact future consumer spending and economic resilience.
Monetary Policy Outlook: The expectation of steady rates in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting followed by a potential rate cut could influence investment and spending decisions across sectors, including agriculture.
Each of these factors plays a critical role in shaping the economic and agricultural landscapes, affecting everything from policy decisions to day-to-day operations for businesses and farms.
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0:00 Trump and Mexico
2:37 Excessive Heat
5:56 Wheat Tour Day 2
6:58 Ethanol Production
8:17 China Livestock Limitations
The updates provided reflect a dynamic range of global and domestic issues that could influence market behaviors and economic strategies:
Mexican Automotive Trade: President Lopez Obrador's dismissal of former President Trump's threats to ban Mexican-made cars highlights the complexities of international trade policies. Obrador’s confidence stems from past U.S. administrations' support for free trade agreements, suggesting that significant policy changes might face practical challenges and opposition due to their potential impact on American consumers and broader economic relationships.
Heatwave in the Western Corn Belt: The Climate Prediction Center’s warning about excessive heat across the western Corn Belt and US Plains is critical as it could exacerbate the "rapid onset drought," affecting crop yields, and agricultural productivity. This situation demands close monitoring as prolonged heat could lead to significant agricultural disruptions.
Wheat Production Forecasts: The Wheat Quality Council’s tour reporting potential record yields in North Dakota provides a positive outlook for wheat production. However, the overall impact on wheat prices will depend on global supply conditions, including international production rates and trade policies.
US Ethanol Production and Demand: The slight decline in weekly ethanol production juxtaposed with the rise in implied gasoline demand suggests fluctuations in the biofuel market that could influence corn markets, given corn’s role as a primary feedstock for ethanol in the U.S.
China’s Dairy and Beef Industry Regulation: China’s decision to regulate the size of dairy and beef herds to stabilize falling prices reflects the government’s attempt to balance market supply with declining consumer demand amid economic challenges. This regulatory approach could impact global dairy and beef markets, potentially affecting export opportunities and global price structures.
These developments collectively indicate significant geopolitical and environmental factors at play, impacting commodity markets, trade relations, and economic policies globally. Keeping an eye on these evolving situations will be crucial for stakeholders in the agricultural, energy, and financial sectors.
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0:00 "Rapid Onset Drought"
2:39 Spring Wheat Tour
5:21 Canola and Biofuel
7:40 Flash Sale - China??
8:50 Russian Wheat
10:00 Real Estate Softens
The series of updates you've shared touches on a variety of critical factors affecting agricultural markets and beyond:
Weather Conditions: The ongoing excessive heat and emerging drought conditions in the western Corn Belt and US Plains pose significant risks to agricultural productivity, especially in areas already marked by the National Weather Service. The lack of expected rainfall over the next 5 to 10 days could exacerbate these conditions, potentially impacting crop yields and inflating market prices due to reduced supply.
Wheat and Canola Production:
Wheat: The Wheat Quality Council’s tour showing potential record yields in parts of North Dakota offers a positive outlook for spring wheat production, despite concerns over diseases like fusarium and head blight. This could influence wheat market dynamics, potentially stabilizing prices if yields are indeed high.
Canola: As an emerging feedstock for renewable fuels, canola’s increased production and environmental benefits highlight its growing importance. However, potential policy shifts under a new administration could impact the renewable fuels market and canola's role within it.
Corn Market and Exports:
Recent flash sales of corn to unknown destinations and Mexico indicate ongoing robust demand for U.S. corn. This demand could help to stabilize or potentially increase corn prices, particularly if supply concerns arise from the worsening drought conditions.
Russian Grain Production: The upward revision in Russia's grain and wheat production forecasts by Sovecon contrasts with previous concerns about damage from adverse weather conditions. This development could influence global grain markets by increasing supply and potentially exerting downward pressure on international grain prices.
US Housing Market: The record pace of home purchase cancellations in June reflects broader economic pressures such as high interest rates and soaring home prices. This trend could have ripple effects across the economy, influencing consumer spending and potentially affecting broader market sentiment.
These developments highlight the interconnected nature of agricultural markets with broader economic indicators and policy environments. As such, they provide critical insights for market participants and policymakers alike.
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0:00 Chinese Demand Incoming?
2:06 Heat for the US Corn Belt?
5:20 US Crop Ratings
8:15 Grain Shipment Update
9:10 Flash Sale to Mexico
9:48 "Rotation" Trade
It looks like a mix of developments across various sectors is influencing market dynamics recently. Here’s a concise overview of the updates:
China's Economic Measures: China's interest rate cut is a targeted approach to revitalize borrowing and spending amid ongoing economic challenges, including deflation. While this move has stirred some optimism in commodity markets, it's viewed as insufficient alone to significantly alter economic momentum.
U.S. Corn Belt Weather: As heat waves are predicted to affect crop-growing regions, concerns about potential stress on crops could impact market prices and agricultural productivity. The forecast suggests a clear division in rainfall distribution which could exacerbate conditions in already dry areas.
Agricultural Conditions and Progress:
Corn: A slight decline in the good to excellent ratings for corn might be a signal for cautious optimism among traders, reflecting the mixed conditions across states.
Soybeans: Stable conditions for soybeans show a steady progress, which is encouraging for this year’s production.
Wheat: The wheat harvest is progressing swiftly, which may influence wheat prices and availability in the markets.
Commodity Trade:
Corn and Soybeans Shipments: There’s a notable fluctuation in shipments, with corn experiencing a drop and soybeans seeing an increase. This variability can impact pricing and supply perceptions on the global stage.
Export Sales: Regular business with Mexico underscores the ongoing demand for U.S. corn, which is critical for market stability.
Market Dynamics: The shift in the stock market, with smaller cap indices outperforming the larger cap S&P 500, suggests a broader reevaluation among investors. This could be driven by political expectations, monetary policy anticipations, or simply a market correction.
These elements combined provide a comprehensive snapshot of the current economic and agricultural landscapes, influencing decisions from the ground level in farms to macroeconomic policies and global market reactions.
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🚨 Daily Agricultural and Economic Update 📊🌍
🌡️ Following another 5 days of cooler temps, 🔥 heat returns to US Corn Belt this weekend. Above-normal temps expected for 15 days. 🌧️ Next 10 days mostly dry; Euro model predicts minimal rain this week. Some rain possible for Iowa and Minnesota in 5-10 day forecast, leaving much of US corn and soybean areas dry. Extended GFS shows rain for eastern Corn Belt in early August; west remains dry.
🌽🌱 Fund traders maintain massive net short in corn market. CFTC data: "the funds" net buyers of 4k corn contracts; net short of 353k contracts, second largest on record. Funds net sellers of 20k soybean contracts; net short of 183k contracts, largest on record. Net sellers of 4k SRW wheat contracts.
📉 Ag groups urge domestic feedstocks in 45Z guidelines for tax credits to benefit US farmers and environment.
🐄 USDA reports flash sale of soybean cake and meal; 105,000mt sold Friday, 210,000mt total for 2024/2025 delivery. Cattle on Feed report viewed as neutral to somewhat positive. 📊
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🚨 Daily Agricultural and Economic Update 📊🌍
🌱 USDA made a significant soybean sale announcement on Thursday, selling 510,000mt (19mil bushels) of soybeans and 150,000mt of soybean cake and meal for 2024/2025 delivery to undisclosed destinations.
🌧️ Weekly drought monitor data from USDA showed improved conditions in Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Michigan, Ohio, and Iowa due to recent rainfall, but worsened conditions in southern Ohio and eastern Kentucky where precipitation was scarce. 📉 Drought affected various crops: Corn 5%, Soybeans 5%, Winter Wheat 24%, Spring Wheat 12%, Cattle 15%.
🌽 US corn export sales declined, totaling 437,800mt (17mil bushels) with Japan as the top buyer. 📈 Soybean sales increased sharply to 360,100mt (13mil bushels), largely driven by China. 🌾 Wheat sales were robust at 578,500mt (21mil bushels), with South Korea leading purchases.
🏦 The Federal Reserve plans interest rate cuts amidst a cooling economy; jobless claims have risen steadily in 2024, pushing the unemployment rate to 4.1%, the highest since 2021.
🗳️ Despite calls to delay rate cuts until after the election, the Fed insists on apolitical decision-making.
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Here's a breakdown of key developments:
SAF Production Surge: The U.S. is seeing a significant increase in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production capacity, set to rise by 1,400% this year. With new plants coming online, the capacity could reach nearly 30,000 barrels per day. This aligns with the White House’s ambitious goal to meet all U.S. aviation fuel demands with SAF by 2050.
Yen's Sudden Spike: The Japanese yen has notably appreciated, raising questions about potential government intervention. This comes after a prolonged period of weakness against the dollar, which has recently seen a downturn due to signals from the Federal Reserve about potential rate cuts.
Corn Belt Weather Forecast: Cooler-than-normal temperatures are expected across the U.S. Corn Belt, with minimal rainfall anticipated over the next 5 days. This could impact agricultural activities and crop outcomes in the region.
Ethanol Production Increases: U.S. ethanol production has seen a rise, with stocks slightly adjusting. However, implied gasoline demand is down compared to last year, reflecting broader trends in energy consumption and production.
Trump's Tariff Plans: In a recent interview, former President Donald Trump expressed intentions to impose substantial tariffs on China and other countries, targeting Europe specifically over trade imbalances in the auto and agricultural sectors. His stance on Taiwan reflects economic and geopolitical considerations, focusing on the semiconductor industry.
These elements paint a complex picture of international trade dynamics, energy production shifts, and agricultural forecasts, all of which are crucial for understanding current economic trends and their potential impacts on global markets.
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0:00 Vance and Trade Wars
3:35 Vance and Ukraine
6:46 US Weather
8:09 Wheat Demand??
9:40 Stock Rally + Fed
🚨 Daily Agricultural and Economic Update 📊🌍
Welcome back to our channel where we discuss the latest in agriculture, economy, and global trade. This week, we've seen significant political developments, unusual weather patterns, and shifts in global markets. Let’s dive into the details:
Political Shifts and Trade
The Republican Party, with Senator J.D. Vance now as Trump's Vice Presidential pick, is taking a stronger stance on trade protectionism. They propose high tariffs on goods from China and globally, blaming low-wage imports for domestic job losses. This pivot could have wide-reaching implications for international trade and domestic industries.
Funding for Ukraine
There is growing concern among European officials regarding the U.S. stance on Ukraine. Vance's critical view on funding Ukraine suggests a shift in policy if the Republican ticket succeeds in the upcoming elections. This could lead to a significant reduction in U.S. support for Kyiv, redirecting those funds domestically to infrastructure such as schools and hospitals.
Weather Impact on Crops
Severe weather has affected the central and eastern Corn Belt, with areas like northern Illinois experiencing up to 8 inches of rain over the past week due to Hurricane Beryl and subsequent storms. While the upcoming week forecasts drier conditions, the excessive rain has raised concerns about crop health in affected regions.
Global Wheat Purchases
Asian buyers have increased their wheat purchases from the Black Sea region, capitalizing on the lowest global prices in months. This surge is a response to better-than-expected yields in Russia and increased U.S. production, which have pressed down prices.
Stock Market Rally
The Dow Jones and S&P 500 soared to record highs, fueled by anticipation of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. This optimism in financial markets reflects broader economic sentiments and could influence sectors like real estate and consumer spending.
🔔 Stay Updated:
For more detailed analysis and predictions, make sure to subscribe to our channel. We provide regular updates to help you stay informed about the key factors affecting agricultural markets and the global economy.
💬 Join the Conversation:
What are your thoughts on the proposed trade tariffs and their potential impact on the U.S. economy? How do you see the current weather conditions affecting crop yields? Share your views in the comments below. Let’s discuss how these developments might shape market trends in the coming months.
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0:00 Severe Midwest Weather
2:29 Crop Ratings Unchanged
6:31 NOPA Crush
7:43 China Economic Problems
9:27 Grain Shipment Update
🚨 Severe Weather Update and Agricultural Market Overview 🌪️🌾
Welcome back to our channel for the latest insights on the impact of weather conditions and market trends on agricultural commodities. Let’s dive into the recent developments:
Severe Weather Impact
Parts of the central US Corn Belt were hit by severe weather on Monday night, including heavy straight-line winds and thunderstorms, affecting crops in Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Indiana. Some locations reported winds exceeding 100mph. While today saw early morning rain across central regions, the coming days are expected to be dry for most of the Corn Belt, with rainfall anticipated mainly in the southern states.
US Corn and Soybean Conditions
The USDA's latest report shows US corn conditions remain stable at 68% good to excellent, consistent with the previous week but slightly below trade expectations. Soybean conditions also held steady at 68% good to excellent. The stability in crop conditions comes despite recent severe weather, underscoring the resilience of this year's crops so far.
Wheat Harvest Progress
The US winter wheat harvest is progressing ahead of schedule, though slightly behind trade expectations, with 71% of the crop harvested as of this past Sunday. Meanwhile, the US spring wheat crop is doing well, rated 77% good to excellent, indicating a potentially robust yield for this season.
Soybean Crush and Oil Stocks
The National Oilseed Processors Association reported a decline in the June soybean crush, which, while down from May, still set a record for the month. Soybean oil stocks decreased, falling below trade expectations, which could have implications for both the food industry and biofuel sectors.
Global Economic Concerns: China's Economy
China's economic growth slowed to 4.7% in the second quarter, marking its slowest pace in five quarters, driven by weak consumer spending and ongoing deflation. This economic downturn raises concerns about global trade flows and demand for commodities, including agricultural products.
US Crop Export Activity
US corn shipments showed strong performance last week, reflecting a significant year-over-year increase. However, soybean shipments were weaker than expected, which could influence market sentiment and pricing in the near term. Wheat shipments were notably strong, exceeding expectations and suggesting robust international demand.
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0:00 Trump
1:25 USDA Report
3:53 "The Funds"
6:16 US Weather Update
7:33 Brazilian Soy Expansion
9:17 Biden Biofuel Failure
🌾 Agricultural Market Update: USDA Surprises, Crop Conditions, and Biofuel Policy Impacts 📉🌦️
USDA Report Overview
In a surprising turn, the USDA revised its demand projections upwards for the old crop US corn by 150 million bushels, contrary to previous supply and demand indicators. This adjustment resulted in a significantly lower old crop carryout projection of 1.877 billion bushels, which was below pre-report estimates. For the new crop, the USDA forecasted a carryout of 2.097 billion bushels, buoyed by an increase in projected exports and feed usage, also coming in lighter than anticipated.
Fund Trading and Market Sentiment
Fund traders maintain a record net short position in the corn market, with a net short of 356,000 contracts—the largest on record. This bearish stance extends to soybeans as well, with a significant net short position reflecting cautious market sentiment. However, funds were net buyers of SRW wheat, indicating a mixed outlook across different grain markets.
Weather Impact on Crops
The weekend brought substantial rainfall to northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin, with some areas receiving over 6 inches. The upcoming forecast suggests more scattered rainfall across the Corn Belt, with heavier rains expected in the southeastern United States. Cooler-than-normal temperatures are predicted to persist through the end of the month, which could impact crop development.
Brazilian Soybean Crop Expansion
Brazil's soybean planting is projected to grow by only 1.9% this year, marking the slowest expansion rate since 2006. Despite global supply pressures and diminishing profit margins influencing this trend, the overall production is expected to hit a record high due to improved yields. This dynamic highlights the global interplay between supply, demand, and pricing in major agricultural markets.
Biofuel Policy and Agricultural Impact
President Joe Biden’s climate policies have inadvertently favored the import of foreign biofuel materials over domestic crops like soybeans and corn. This shift has increased imports of used cooking oil and waste beef fat, impacting the demand for US-grown biofuels feedstocks. This policy direction is occurring alongside a projected significant drop in US farm incomes, the largest since 2006, raising concerns about the long-term sustainability of domestic agricultural practices.
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0:00 Record National Corn Yield?
6:58 Ukraine Seizes Russian Ship
8:27 Drought Monitor
11:11 Export Sales
14:11 Inflation Update
Welcome back to our channel for a detailed update on key developments affecting the agricultural sector and broader economic landscape. Here's what's on the agenda today:
USDA Crop Production and WASDE Reports
The USDA is set to release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports today at 11:00am CST. These reports will reflect the updated new crop US corn and soybean balance sheets, incorporating data from the June Planted Acreage report which showed a significant increase in corn acreage. While no major adjustments to US corn and soybean yield projections are expected, the focus will be on potential changes to global supply and demand. The reports are anticipated to bear a mostly bearish tone, especially concerning corn prices.
Geopolitical Developments in Ukraine
Ukraine's recent detention of a foreign cargo ship on the Danube River, suspected of carrying stolen Ukrainian grain from Russian-occupied Crimea, has escalated tensions. This incident has stirred concerns about potential Russian retaliatory actions during Ukraine's crucial grain export season. Wheat futures saw a sharp rise following the news, highlighting the sensitive interplay between geopolitical events and commodity markets.
US Drought Conditions and Agricultural Impact
Recent USDA drought monitor data indicates mixed conditions across the US Corn Belt and High Plains, with many areas receiving beneficial rainfall and experiencing cooler-than-average temperatures. However, conditions have worsened in parts of western Illinois and northeast Missouri. These evolving weather patterns are critical for crop development stages and will continue to influence market dynamics.
US Crop Export Sales
Corn export sales showed an increase last week, with Colombia being the largest buyer. However, soybean sales were relatively weak, with the Netherlands as the primary buyer. The varied performance in crop export sales reflects shifting global demand and market conditions, which traders closely monitor for strategic insights.
Economic Indicators and Market Reactions
In a surprising economic update, consumer prices declined for the first time in four years last month, with the CPI falling 0.1% in June. This decline, coupled with the slowest annual inflation increase since March 2021, has significantly influenced market expectations, with the probability of the Federal Reserve beginning rate cuts in September now standing at 89%.
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0:00 Help Us Hit 15k Subs!
0:35 China is Back
2:53 The Weather Market is Over
6:24 USDA Preview
8:51 Ru/Ukr Peace Deal?
11:02 Ethanol Production
🌾 Agricultural Sector Update: Market Movements and Weather Impact 📊🌦️
Welcome back to our channel for the latest insights into agricultural markets, crop conditions, and significant geopolitical developments. Here’s a rundown of the current situation:
US Soybean Sales to China
The USDA reported a noteworthy flash sale of 132,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans to China for the 2024/2025 marketing year. This marks the first new crop soybean sale to China this year, occurring against a backdrop of the weakest new crop US soybean export sales since 2005.
Impact of Hurricane Beryl
Recent rains from Hurricane Beryl have significantly benefited regions of the Corn Belt such as Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan, with localized amounts reaching up to 6 inches. This rainfall was timely, particularly given the developing dryness in eastern areas. While mostly dry weather is expected in the coming days, forecasts indicate a return of rain to the eastern Corn Belt soon.
Upcoming USDA Reports
This Friday, the USDA will release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports. These are anticipated to reflect the data from the June Planted Acreage report, which showed a substantial increase in corn acreage. No major adjustments are expected for US corn and soybean yield projections. However, the global supply and demand dynamics, particularly f5or corn, might present a bearish outlook due to the increased acreage.
Geopolitical Developments
Ukraine is seeking to expedite peace talks with Russia ahead of the US presidential election, anticipating potential shifts in US foreign policy depending on the election outcome. The urgency reflects concerns about possible changes in military support depending on who wins the presidency.
Ethanol Production and Demand
US ethanol production has slightly decreased, with output at 1.05 million barrels last week. Ethanol stocks showed a marginal increase, reflecting a slight dip in implied gasoline demand. These figures are crucial as they impact corn markets, given that ethanol production is a significant corn use.
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0:00 Soybean Selloff
2:41 Perfectly Timed Rains
6:01 India/Russia
7:12 Crude Oil
8:23 Rate Cuts Ahead
🌾📉 Agricultural and Economic Update: Soybean Prices, Weather Impact, and Global Trade Dynamics 🌦️🌍
Soybean Market Dynamics
Soybean futures hit a new low with the November 2024 contract dropping to $10.80 per bushel, the lowest since Q3 2021. This significant decline is driven by a sharp decrease in soybean oil values and a modest drop in meal prices, signaling a potential easing in the US soybean supply-demand balance. Current market sentiment is influenced by expectations of a strong national yield, while concerns about weak export sales—currently at a 20-year low—add to the bearish outlook.
Impact of Hurricane Beryl
Hurricane Beryl brought substantial rainfall across the central United States, particularly benefiting Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and western Kentucky within the Corn Belt. As the system continues to move, the forecast suggests a return to drier conditions, with fluctuating temperatures over the next two weeks. These weather patterns are crucial as they directly influence crop conditions and development.
Indian Imports of Russian Agricultural Products
India has significantly increased its imports of Russian agricultural products, with a notable uptick in grains like peas and lentils. This shift has contributed to Russia's 21% increase in grain and grain product exports this season. Such dynamics are reshaping global trade patterns, particularly under the current geopolitical climate.
Oil Market Fluctuations
Oil prices saw a decrease of more than 1% due to Hurricane Beryl causing less damage than expected, alleviating concerns about potential supply disruptions. Additional factors influencing oil prices include Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks on economic slowdown and the labor market, alongside speculative ceasefire talks in Gaza.
US Economic Outlook and Federal Reserve's Stance
The potential slowdown in the US jobs market poses significant risks to economic stability, challenging the Federal Reserve's policy approach. Powell's recent comments underscore the delicate balance the Fed must manage between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth, without providing a specific timeline for potential rate cuts.
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🌾📉 Agricultural Market Update: Grain Prices, Crop Conditions, and Weather Impacts 🌦️📊
Welcome back to our channel where we provide comprehensive updates on the latest trends and changes in the agricultural sector. This week, we're looking at significant movements in grain prices, crop conditions, and the effects of weather patterns. Let's dive into the details:
Grain Price Decline
Grain prices have fallen to their lowest levels since 2020, with December corn down 4.3% and November soybeans losing 3.1%. This decline is partly due to the beneficial moisture brought by Hurricane Beryl to the Midwest, which has improved crop conditions significantly. The USDA reported that corn and soybean crops are in their best condition in four years, contributing to the downward pressure on prices.
Record Short Positions and Market Sentiment
Fund traders have increased their net short positions in the corn market to a record level, with a net short of 347,000 contracts of corn. This reflects a bearish sentiment in the market, further influencing grain price dynamics. Similar selling trends were observed in soybeans and SRW wheat, indicating broad market caution.
Weather Impact and Forecast
Hurricane Beryl has brought significant rainfall across Arkansas, Missouri, western Tennessee, western Kentucky, and southern Illinois, with more expected over Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana in the coming days. Despite this, the market is currently more focused on the moisture benefits rather than potential heat risks forecasted in the 6-10 and 8-14 day periods.
US Crop Conditions
Corn and soybean conditions have shown slight improvements last week, with corn rated 68% good to excellent and soybeans at 68%. These are among the best ratings for this time of year since 2020, suggesting robust crop health that could continue to influence grain prices.
Winter Wheat Harvest and Spring Wheat Conditions
The US winter wheat harvest is progressing well, ahead of schedule with significant portions already harvested in Kansas and Texas. Spring wheat conditions are also favorable, with 75% rated good to excellent, although there have been some declines in states like Idaho, South Dakota, and Washington.
Brazil's Corn Harvest and US Exports
Brazil's second corn crop harvest is advancing rapidly due to favorable hot and dry conditions, with 63% of the crop already harvested. Meanwhile, US corn shipments saw a substantial increase last week, indicating strong export demand, which contrasts with the recent drop in domestic grain prices.
Ongoing Developments
Lastly, the USDA reported a flash sale of corn, with significant quantities sold to unknown destinations, scheduled for delivery over the next two marketing years. This could signal ongoing international demand for US corn despite lower prices.
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0:00 Hail Damage / US Weather
2:40 Drought Monitor
4:55 China Demand Problems
6:30 Ethanol Production
7:34 Export Sales
10:10 Flash Sale
🌾📈 Agricultural Sector Update: Weather Impacts, Crop Conditions, and Market Movements 🌦️📉
Severe Weather and Crop Damage
Recent hail storms across Nebraska, South Dakota, Kansas, Iowa, and Minnesota have severely impacted corn and soybean fields, with south-central Nebraska experiencing significant losses. Hurricane Beryl's landfall on the Texas coast has brought hurricane-related rains northeast, potentially affecting Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio. These conditions may help alleviate some drought issues but could also pose risks of flooding and additional crop damage.
USDA Drought Monitor and Crop Conditions
The latest USDA drought monitor report shows mixed conditions across the Corn Belt and High Plains. While areas like northwest Ohio and central Iowa saw improvements due to recent rains, southern Ohio and parts of Illinois experienced worsening drought conditions. The overall impact continues to be closely monitored, with rainfall patterns playing a critical role in crop development stages.
International Corn and Soybean Market Trends
The USDA's office in China has revised down its forecast for Chinese corn imports to 20 million metric tons due to a bumper domestic crop and increased imports of substitutes like barley. Meanwhile, US ethanol production has seen an uptick, reflecting slightly increased gasoline demand, which could influence corn markets given ethanol's significant corn usage.
US Crop Export Sales
Recent US crop export sales figures were disappointing, with corn sales falling significantly below expectations and soybean sales also at the lower end of forecasts. These trends highlight the challenges facing US exporters in the current global trade environment, where competition and domestic supply issues in importing countries can quickly alter demand dynamics.
Market Response and Future Outlook
The agricultural market is responding to these developments with caution, as traders and farmers alike navigate the complexities of weather impacts, international trade shifts, and domestic policy changes. The next few days will be crucial for assessing the full impact of the recent storms and adjusting market strategies accordingly.
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🌾📊 Agricultural Update: Weather Trends, Crop Estimates, and Industry Movements 🌦️🌍
Welcome back to our channel for the latest insights into agricultural conditions, market movements, and industry changes. Let’s explore some key developments affecting the sector this week.
Rainfall and Temperature Forecasts
Recent weather patterns have brought beneficial rain to parts of Iowa, Wisconsin, northern Missouri, and eastern Nebraska, while early morning storms affected Missouri and Illinois. Over the next 5-10 days, variable rainfall is expected across the Corn Belt, with the western areas receiving more moisture compared to a drier eastern region. This divergence in weather conditions could impact crop development differently across these areas.
Global Wheat Market Dynamics
Russian wheat prices have recently declined due to unexpectedly good yields and minimal frost damage, contradicting earlier concerns about dry weather and frost. As a result, Russia remains a competitive player in the global wheat market, offering some of the cheapest wheat available, which could influence global pricing and export dynamics.
Brazil's Soybean Crop Forecast
The USDA's attaché in Brazil has revised down the soybean crop estimate to 150 million metric tons due to flooding and lower yields in various states. This adjustment is slightly lower than other predictions, indicating potential tightness in global soybean supplies, which could affect market prices and export volumes.
US Corn Sales and Biofuel Industry Challenges
A recent flash sale reported 100,000 metric tons of corn sold to Colombia, reflecting robust demand for US corn. However, the biofuel sector is facing challenges, with major companies like Shell and BP pausing expansion due to market downturns and technical issues. This slowdown highlights the volatility in the biofuel market and its dependency on stable government policies.
Tyson Foods Adjusts Antibiotic-Free Beef Offerings
Tyson Foods is scaling back its antibiotic-free beef products due to the high costs and market pressures from rising cattle prices. This strategic shift reflects broader industry trends where companies are reassessing product lines to balance consumer preferences with profitability.
Pandemic Flu Vaccine Development
The US government is investing in the development of a new pandemic flu vaccine, with Moderna receiving significant funding to target multiple influenza strains, including the bird flu viruses. This initiative is part of a broader effort to enhance public health preparedness against potential flu pandemics.
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0:00 Is China Worried?
3:10 Mexico to Continue US Corn Imports
6:20 Crop Conditions
8:46 US Radar / Weather
10:12 Grain Shipment Update
🌾📊 Global Agricultural Update: Trade Dynamics, Crop Conditions, and Weather Patterns 🌍🌦️
China's Soybean Import Surge
China is expected to import a record amount of soybeans this month, driven by reduced global soybean prices and strategic purchasing ahead of potential geopolitical shifts. The prospect of a new Trump presidency has stirred concerns about possible US tariff increases, which could ignite a trade war, influencing global soybean trade dynamics. Despite these concerns, China's reliance on cheaper Brazilian soybeans has lessened the potential impact of US market shifts.
Mexico's Agricultural Policy Shift
Mexico is revising its agricultural strategy by abandoning plans to reduce yellow corn imports and instead focusing on achieving self-sufficiency in white corn production. This move comes after the previous administration's attempts to limit genetically modified corn imports sparked a trade dispute with the US. The new policy aims to balance trade relationships while committing to significant environmental goals like halving deforestation.
US Crop Conditions and Weather Forecast
US corn conditions have seen a slight decline, though some states like Illinois and South Dakota reported improvements. The overall good to excellent ratings for soybeans held steady, despite declines in states like Iowa and Nebraska. Weather forecasts indicate widespread rainfall across the Corn Belt, with differing projections from the Euro and GFS models affecting expectations for moisture distribution, crucial for ongoing crop development.
Wheat Harvest Progress
The US winter wheat harvest is progressing rapidly, significantly ahead of schedule with substantial completion in states like Kansas and Texas. However, winter wheat conditions have slightly deteriorated. In contrast, the spring wheat crop is seeing favorable conditions, which bodes well for the upcoming yield potentials.
Grain Export Trends
US corn shipments experienced a decline last week, although they are still up year-over-year. Soybean and wheat exports also saw reductions from the previous week, reflecting fluctuating global demand and supply chain dynamics. These trends are critical for understanding the broader impacts on global grain markets.
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🌾📉 Agricultural Market Recap: USDA Report Impact and Corn Belt Weather Update 🌦️📊
Welcome back to our channel where we analyze critical developments in the agricultural sector. This week’s focus is on the recent USDA report and its implications for the corn market, along with an update on weather conditions across the Corn Belt.
USDA Report and Corn Futures
The latest USDA report delivered a bearish surprise for corn markets. The 2024 US corn acreage was reported at 91.5 million acres, significantly higher than the average trade guess and March intentions, leading to a sharp decline in corn futures. The December 2024 corn contract fell by 13 cents, closing near $4.21 per bushel. Additionally, corn stocks as of June 1st exceeded expectations by 120 million bushels, further pressuring prices.
USDA Report Release Issues
The release of the USDA report was marred by technical difficulties, causing a delay on the official USDA website, attributed to heavy traffic. While some data channels like Quickstats and JSON were timely, the main site suffered a significant delay, impacting traders and stakeholders who rely on prompt data during such critical releases.
Weather Impact on Corn Belt
Over the weekend, the Corn Belt experienced varied rainfall, with Iowa, Minnesota, southern Wisconsin, and Michigan receiving substantial amounts. However, the eastern Corn Belt remained largely dry. The upcoming week’s forecast suggests more generalized rainfall across the region, potentially benefiting crop conditions, especially given the slightly below-normal temperature projections.
Market Sentiment and Trader Activity
In response to the USDA's bearish report, fund traders have increased their net short positions in the corn market, reaching the largest since mid-February. This sentiment was also reflected in trading activities for soybeans and SRW wheat, with funds continuing to sell off contracts.
Political Context
Amid these market dynamics, political developments continue as President Joe Biden evaluates the future of his re-election campaign following a challenging debate. Despite internal concerns within the Democratic party, top leaders and family discussions at Camp David over the weekend show ongoing support for his candidacy.
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🌾📈 Agricultural Sector Update: Weather Impacts, Market Trends, and Technological Advances 🌍🌦️
Welcome back to our channel, where we delve into the latest developments in agriculture, including weather conditions, market dynamics, and emerging technologies. Here's what's happening this week:
Drought and Weather Conditions
Recent USDA drought monitor data shows that precipitation was mostly limited to the upper and western portions of the Corn Belt last week, improving conditions in Wisconsin and Iowa. However, southern Minnesota, southeast South Dakota, and northwest Iowa experienced excessive rainfall, leading to flash and river flooding. Drought conditions across the High Plains remained largely unchanged, except for improvements in southwest Kansas and northern Oklahoma.
Forecast and Rainfall Accumulation
Early morning rains have swept across several states, including Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Kansas, Missouri, and Illinois. Forecast models from both the Euro and GFS indicate more generalized rainfall for the Corn Belt in the 5-10 day period, crucial for alleviating dryness in the eastern regions. Any underperformance in rainfall could heighten concerns over crop conditions due to building dryness.
USDA Reports and Market Expectations
The USDA is set to release its Planted Acreage and quarterly Grain Stocks report today. Expectations suggest a modest increase in US corn and soybean acreage from March intentions. June 1st stocks are anticipated to be significantly higher than last year, with market sentiment leaning towards a bearish report based on recent price actions.
US Crop Sales and International Developments
Corn export sales saw a slight increase last week, primarily to Mexico. Soybean sales, however, fell below expectations, with China being the largest buyer. The USDA also reported a notable flash sale of soybeans for the 2024/2025 marketing year. Meanwhile, Argentina's major oilseed union strike over labor reforms could impact soybean processing and export operations, adding another layer of complexity to global supply chains.
Technological Innovations in Agriculture
Advancements in automation and artificial intelligence are increasingly prominent in farming equipment. Companies like John Deere are introducing tractors that can be operated via smartphones, while robots and drones are being used for crop spraying. Despite the potential benefits, there is some reluctance among farmers to fully adopt these expensive technologies, especially given current economic pressures.
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🌾📈 Agricultural Sector Update: Climate Initiatives, Weather Patterns, Market Forecasts, and Investment Opportunities 🌍📉
Welcome back to our channel where we delve into the latest in agricultural developments, market dynamics, and investment opportunities. Let’s explore the key updates affecting the sector this week.
USDA Climate-Friendly Farm Practices Feedback
The USDA is seeking public feedback to refine its assessment of climate-friendly farming practices linked to a new clean fuel tax credit program. This initiative follows some concerns from farm and biofuel groups about the stringent requirements of the SAF tax credit, which takes effect in 2025 and replaces other low-emission fuel credits. This feedback period is critical as it shapes future agricultural policies that directly impact farm sustainability and profitability.
Weather Impact on Crop Conditions
Scattered storms across South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas brought varying precipitation levels, including a hail risk in some areas of the western US Plains. Weather forecasts predict more generalized rainfall in the Corn Belt over the next 5-10 days, with temperatures expected to be significantly below normal in northern areas, potentially affecting crop growth and development stages.
Upcoming USDA Reports
This Friday, the USDA will release its Planted Acreage and quarterly Grain Stocks report. Market anticipation suggests modest increases in US corn and soybean acreage from March intentions. Traders are bracing for potentially higher June 1st stocks of corn, soybeans, and wheat compared to last year, with current price action hinting at expectations for a bearish report.
US Ethanol Production and Market Trends
US ethanol production has seen a slight decline from the previous week and year-over-year, with stocks decreasing slightly but still up compared to last year. These trends reflect broader challenges in the fuel market, where implied gasoline demand has also decreased, affecting the biofuel sector and related agricultural markets.
Brazilian Farmland Investment Opportunity
An innovative investment firm is offering foreign investors the chance to engage with Brazilian farmland through a private equity-style fund aimed at raising $150 million. This strategy allows investment in productive agricultural land, circumventing restrictions on direct land purchases by foreign entities. This opportunity taps into the significant value increase of Brazilian farmland over the past two decades, targeting investors from the US, Europe, and the Middle East.
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🌾📈 Agricultural and Environmental Update: Pipeline Approvals, Market Trends, and Regulatory Changes 🌍📉
Welcome back to our channel where we provide comprehensive updates on agricultural markets, environmental initiatives, and regulatory changes. Let’s dive into the significant developments affecting the sector this week.
Carbon Capture Pipeline Approval in Iowa
The Iowa Utilities Board has granted approval for Summit Carbon Solutions' ambitious carbon capture pipeline, which will span five states and transport CO2 from 57 ethanol plants to a sequestration site in North Dakota. This approval also includes the contentious decision to allow eminent domain for acquiring necessary land, a move that has seen 75% voluntary compliance from landowners along the route. This project is a crucial step towards reducing carbon emissions significantly but awaits further approvals from North Dakota and South Dakota.
Corn and Soybean Market Dynamics
The December 2024 corn contract hit its lowest point since September 2021, closing at $4.43 per bushel, influenced by positive expectations about upcoming US rainfall and its potential benefit to crop yields. Similar trends were observed in the soybean market, with the November 2024 contract also reaching a low not seen since 2021. Market sentiment is bracing for potentially bearish outcomes from the upcoming USDA report and the impact of farmers needing to act on July basis contracts.
Weather Patterns and Crop Prospects
Early morning rains have been observed in southern Iowa and northern Missouri, with weather models showing varied predictions for the next few days. The Euro model suggests more generalized rainfall across the Corn Belt, while the GFS model predicts drier conditions, particularly in northern areas. Both models agree on additional rains in the 5-10 day forecast, crucial for crop development during this key growing phase.
USDA Corn Sale and Meatpacking Industry Proposal
The USDA reported a notable sale of corn to Mexico, reinforcing the strength of agricultural trade ties between the two nations. On another front, the USDA has proposed a rule aimed at increasing competition within the meatpacking industry by clarifying how producers can demonstrate harm from anti-competitive practices. This rule could lead to significant changes in how antitrust laws are enforced within the industry, despite concerns from the North American Meat Institute about potential legal challenges and uncertainty.
Implications and Outlook
These developments represent significant shifts in agricultural practices, market dynamics, and regulatory frameworks. The implications of these changes could affect everything from individual farmers to international trade relations and environmental strategies.
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0:00 Crop Ratings Drop
3:42 US Weather Update
7:02 "The Funds"
8:03 India Limits Wheat Stocks
9:27 US Grain Shipments
10:22 New Crop Meal Sale
Agricultural Market Update: Crop Conditions, Weather Patterns, & Trade Dynamics
US Crop Conditions
Corn and soybean conditions have declined slightly this past week, with corn dropping from 72% to 69% rated good to excellent, and soybeans from 70% to 67%. Significant drops were noted in Ohio, Indiana, and North Carolina due to various stress factors. Despite these decreases, the overall ratings align with trade expectations and remain relatively strong historically.
Wheat Harvest Progress
The US winter wheat harvest is progressing rapidly, significantly ahead of schedule with 40% of the crop already harvested, compared to the average of 25%. States like Oklahoma and Texas are nearly done with their harvest, while harvesting has yet to begin in states like Idaho and Michigan. The condition of the winter wheat has also improved, offering some positive news for wheat producers.
Rainfall and Temperature Forecasts
Rain is expected to return to the Corn Belt, particularly benefiting states like Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, Indiana, and Ohio in the next few days. Extended forecasts predict continued wet conditions which could alleviate concerns in areas previously dry, though above-normal temperatures could persist, potentially stressing crops further.
Market Movements
Fund traders have slightly adjusted their positions in the corn market, showing net buying for the first time in five weeks. This indicates a shift in market sentiment possibly due to recent weather impacts. In contrast, there continues to be net selling in soybeans and wheat, reflecting broader market trends and expectations.
International Trade and Restrictions
India is considering changes to wheat stock restrictions and import taxes to manage domestic prices and replenish supplies following several years of poor harvests. Such policy moves could have significant implications for global wheat markets, especially given India's role as a major agricultural player.
US Export Activities
Corn shipments have seen a decline from the previous week, yet they show a substantial increase year-over-year. Soybean shipments continue to rise, reflecting strong international demand. The USDA also reported notable sales of soybean cake and meal to the Philippines, highlighting the US's role in meeting global feedstock demand.
Economic and Environmental Impact
The ongoing adjustments in agricultural markets, coupled with fluctuating weather conditions, continue to pose challenges and opportunities for farmers, traders, and policymakers. The dynamic nature of these factors requires constant monitoring and adaptation to optimize ou
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🌾📈 Agricultural Update: Weather Impacts, Crop Reports, and Market Dynamics 🌦️📉
Welcome back to our channel for a detailed analysis of recent developments in the agricultural sector. Let's dive into the impacts of weather conditions, upcoming USDA reports, and changes in market dynamics affecting US agriculture.
Severe Weather and Flooding Impact
Parts of South Dakota, Iowa, and Minnesota experienced heavy rainfall, resulting in significant flooding. In Minnesota, a peacetime emergency was declared with the National Guard activated to manage floodwaters. Northwest Iowa saw over 250 water rescues and considerable property damage, with ongoing concerns about flooding along the Missouri River and its tributaries. These conditions could affect crop health and delay farming activities in these crucial agricultural zones.
Corn Belt Weather Forecast
The US Corn Belt is expected to receive scattered rainfall over the next five days, with more widespread precipitation predicted in the 5-10 day period. Despite above-normal temperatures persisting, moisture levels are currently sufficient as the corn crop approaches pollination—a critical phase for determining yield outcomes.
USDA Reports Preview
The agricultural community is anticipating the USDA's Planted Acreage and quarterly Grain Stocks report due this Friday. Expectations are set for a modest increase in US corn and soybean acreage from March intentions. June 1st stocks for corn, soybeans, and wheat are projected to be significantly higher than last year, which could influence market prices and trading strategies.
Russian Crop Reseeding and Forecast
In Russia, despite early May frosts, the agriculture minister reported that most affected grain crops were successfully reseeded, maintaining the forecast for robust grain production this year. Adjustments in crop estimates by Russian consultancies and the USDA reflect ongoing adjustments to global supply expectations based on the latest agricultural data.
US Crop Sales and Home Market Trends
Corn export sales were notably weak last week, with Japan being the primary buyer. Conversely, soybean sales saw a significant uptick, led by purchases from China. In the real estate sector, US home prices reached a new record high in May, though high mortgage rates continue to suppress home sales, affecting broader economic sentiment.
Market Impact on Cattle
The latest Cattle on Feed report suggests a slightly bearish to neutral outlook for the cattle market, with placements exceeding expectations. This data is crucial for livestock producers and investors, indicating potential shifts in supply and pricing in the coming months.
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🌾🌦️ Agricultural and Energy Sector Update: Weather Alerts, Crop Conditions, and Market Trends 📉🌞
Welcome back to our channel, where we analyze the latest in agriculture and energy sectors, providing insights into weather patterns, crop conditions, and market movements. Let’s dive into today’s significant developments.
Weather Impact on Agriculture
A storm system brought substantial rainfall to parts of South Dakota, southern Minnesota, northern Iowa, and Wisconsin. Concurrently, much of the eastern Corn Belt is under a heat advisory, with both major weather models predicting dry conditions for the next five days but potential rainfall in the 5-10 day forecast. The government's 30-day outlook contrasts these models, predicting above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall across the US Corn Belt, which could stress crops in key growing areas.
Drought Monitor and Crop Conditions
Recent USDA drought monitor data reveals that despite some rainfall in the western and northern Corn Belt, drought conditions have seen limited improvement as these areas were not previously under drought stress. However, areas like Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois experienced worsening conditions due to insufficient precipitation, which could impact crop yields moving forward.
Biofuels and Agricultural Markets
The US has approved the import of Brazilian used cooking oil (UCO) for renewable fuel production, affecting local soybean markets already under pressure from increased biofuel feedstock imports. This approval could shift dynamics in the biofuel industry, impacting soybean farmers and crushers due to altered profit margins. Meanwhile, demand for biofuels is expected to continue driving Brazilian soybean production, potentially reaching 170 million metric tons next season if weather conditions are favorable.
Chinese Import Trends
Chinese imports of US soybeans surged last month, increasing by 156% compared to last year, influenced by reduced availability of Brazilian soybeans due to flooding. Despite this spike, Brazilian soybeans still dominate the Chinese market, highlighting the dynamic nature of global agricultural trade.
US Ethanol Production
US ethanol production saw an increase last week, with output and stocks rising, reflecting a boost in implied gasoline demand. This uptick is significant for the renewable energy market and could influence corn prices, as ethanol production is a major demand driver for corn.
Energy Costs and Consumer Impact
Record-breaking heat across the US is expected to increase household electricity bills this summer. Natural gas supply adjustments, made to stabilize prices after a warm winter reduced heating demands, are also playing a role in this uptick in energy costs.
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0:00 US Weather Update
2:03 Wheat Collapse
4:36 Electric Semi Trucks?
6:04 Budget Deficit / Soft Default
9:08 S&P Record High
Welcome back to our channel, where we provide in-depth analysis of the latest developments in agriculture, economic policies, and financial markets. Let’s dive into the current situation affecting crops, commodity markets, and broader economic impacts.
🌦️ Weather Conditions in the Corn Belt:
Recent rains have swept across parts of South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, northern Illinois, and Wisconsin, with these areas seeing significant precipitation over the last 72 hours. The forecast for the next 5 days predicts above-normal temperatures across the Corn Belt, with more rain expected in the western regions, while the eastern areas remain mostly dry. Differences between the European (Euro) and American (GFS) weather models are creating some uncertainty for the 5-10 day forecast, particularly for the eastern Corn Belt.
🌾 Wheat Futures Market Dynamics:
Wheat futures have experienced a significant downturn, reaching multi-week lows, with spring wheat futures approaching their lowest level since April 2021. Initial concerns about the Russian wheat crop had driven prices up in April and May, but the market has softened due to reassessments of Russian crop losses and improved weather conditions. This adjustment has affected US wheat's position in the global export market.
🚗 US Corn and Oil Industries vs. Biden Administration:
US corn and oil industry groups have initiated a lawsuit against the Biden administration's new emissions regulations for heavy-duty vehicles, arguing that the push for electric vehicles (EVs) overlooks other climate solutions like ethanol. This legal challenge highlights the tension between traditional energy sectors and new regulatory measures aimed at reducing carbon emissions.
💰 Federal Budget and Economic Projections:
The Congressional Budget Office has revised the estimate for the 2024 federal budget deficit upwards by $400 billion, projecting it to reach $1.9 trillion. Factors contributing to this increase include military aid, student loan debt cancellation, and Medicaid spending. This projection raises concerns about the long-term sustainability of public debt, which could impact economic stability.
📈 Stock Market Achievements:
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have reached new record highs, driven largely by gains in tech stocks, particularly Nvidia, which has now become the world's most valuable public company. Nvidia's rapid ascent underscores the significant impact of the tech sector on broader market indices.
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🌾📉 Agricultural Sector Update: Crop Conditions, Harvest Progress, and Market Movements 🌍📊
Welcome back to our channel, where we keep you informed about the latest trends and data in the agricultural sector. Let’s dive into the recent developments affecting US crops, harvest progress, and the implications for the market.
🌽 US Corn and Soybean Conditions:
The latest USDA report shows a slight decline in US corn conditions, with 72% of the crop rated good to excellent, down from 74% last week and slightly below trade expectations. However, it remains the best rating for this week since 2018. States like Missouri, Nebraska, Pennsylvania, and South Dakota are performing particularly well. On the soybean front, 70% of the crop is rated good to excellent, a slight dip from last year and below trade expectations but still the highest since 2020.
🌾 US Wheat Harvest Advances:
The winter wheat harvest is progressing rapidly, with 27% of the crop already harvested, surpassing the average pace. Oklahoma, Texas, and Kansas are leading the charge, with significant portions of their crops harvested. The overall condition of the winter wheat has improved, with 49% rated good to excellent. Spring wheat is also faring well, with 76% rated good to excellent.
📈 Weather Impact on the Eastern Corn Belt:
The eastern Corn Belt continues to experience hot and mostly dry conditions, which could stress crops. However, recent weather model shifts suggest that rain could return to the area by mid-next week, potentially easing some concerns about dryness.
🛢️ Soybean Processing Data:
The National Oilseed Processors Association reported a record soybean crush for May, with 183.6 million bushels processed, indicating strong demand. Soybean oil stocks ended the month lower than expected, which could tighten supply and influence market prices.
🌽 Brazil’s Corn Harvest and US Export Trends:
Brazil’s second corn crop is being harvested at a record pace due to favorable drying conditions, though projections indicate a decrease in production compared to last season. Meanwhile, US corn shipments saw a slight decrease last week, but remain significantly higher year-over-year. Soybean and wheat shipments from the US have seen increases, reflecting robust international demand.
📉 Market Impact:
These developments have various implications for commodity prices and market dynamics. The weather patterns in the Corn Belt, combined with strong processing data and export trends, provide a complex picture that traders and producers must navigate.
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💬 Join the Conversation:
How do you think these crop conditions and market trends will impact agricultural strategies and investments? Share your thoughts in the comments below. Your input helps us tailor our content to meet your needs and interests.
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0:00 A Non-Bullish Forecast?
2:53 China Drought Update
5:46 "The Funds"
6:43 Ukraine Production Update
8:03 Trump Taxes and Tariffs
🌾📈 Agricultural Market and Climate Update: Weather Trends, Crop Forecasts, and Trade Dynamics 🌍🌦️
Welcome back to our channel where we explore significant developments in agriculture, including weather conditions, crop forecasts, and market movements that affect global food production and trading.
🌞 Eastern Corn Belt Weather Conditions:
The eastern Corn Belt is bracing for hotter and drier conditions with temperatures expected to be 5 to 15 degrees above normal in the coming days. In contrast, western and northwestern areas, including parts of South Dakota, northern Nebraska, Minnesota, and northwest Iowa, received early morning rainfall today and are forecasted to receive more precipitation over the next 5 to 10 days. This mixed weather pattern could impact crop conditions variably across the region.
🇨🇳 Drought Impact on Chinese Grain Production:
In China, persistent drought conditions are expected to reduce grain production, with corn output projected to decline by 2.3% and wheat by 1.2% according to Beijing-based BOABC. These figures contrast with more optimistic government projections, highlighting potential challenges in meeting domestic and global grain demands amidst worsening drought conditions.
📊 Market Movements and Trader Positions:
Fund traders have slightly increased their net short positions in corn, continuing a trend of bearish market sentiment since last year. Meanwhile, there have been significant sales in soybeans and wheat, reflecting broader market adjustments. These movements provide insights into the current market dynamics and trader expectations.
🇺🇦 Ukraine's Grain Production Outlook:
Ukraine's agriculture ministry has revised its grain production forecast upward, anticipating a total of 56 million metric tons for the 2024 season. This optimistic outlook includes significant contributions from wheat and corn, which are also expected to bolster Ukraine's grain exports. Such forecasts are crucial as they influence global grain supply chains and pricing.
📉 Economic Proposal by Former President Donald Trump:
Former President Donald Trump has proposed eliminating the federal income tax and raising tariffs on imported goods to compensate. This idea, however, faces significant practical challenges, including the potential for increased consumer costs and the risk of international trade retaliations, which could spiral into a trade war.
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🌾📈 Comprehensive Agricultural and Economic Update 🌍📉
Welcome back to our channel, where we delve into significant updates across agricultural markets, weather impacts, and economic conditions affecting global agriculture.
🌾 USDA just dropped the latest on drought monitor data. 🌧️ Rainfall played favorites in the Corn Belt last week. The good news? Drought conditions improved in several spots like western Michigan, northern Minnesota, and more. But, some areas like northeastern Missouri saw things worsen. Kansas got a dose of relief with heavy rainfall. 🌱
🇺🇸 US Areas Hit by Drought:
🌽 Corn: 2%
🌱 Soybeans: 1%
❄️ Winter Wheat: 16%
🌾 Spring Wheat: 3%
🐄 Cattle: 8%
A high pressure ridge is bringing in warmer vibes to the Corn Belt. 🌡️ Brace yourselves for some above-normal temperatures and higher humidity levels, as per the 6-10 and 8-14 day government forecasts. Western and northwestern Corn Belt might snag some rain, but the eastern side might stay a bit parched.
Over in Brazil, the forecast for the second corn crop is looking up. 🌽 Conab, Brazil's USDA equivalent, upped their estimate to 88.1mmt, a 2.3% jump from last month. However, Brazil's total corn production is expected to dip to 114.1mmt, mainly due to a soggy situation in southern Brazil affecting soybean crops.
US corn exports are holding steady despite a slight dip last week. 🌽 Sales clocked in at 1.1mmt (42mil bushels), with Japan leading the pack. Soybean sales are on the rise, hitting 377,100mt (14mil bushels), with China taking the lion's share. Wheat sales didn't meet expectations, but Mexico made a notable buy.
More soybeans flying off the shelves! 🛒 US exporters snagged a deal of 120,000mt (4mil bushels) for delivery next marketing year. That's the fourth flash sale in five sessions, totaling 434,000mt (16mil bushels).
The oil and ethanol folks aren't thrilled about the push for EVs. ⚡ They've teamed up to challenge Biden's pollution limits, arguing that it unfairly favors EVs over gas and diesel vehicles. The EPA's restrictions could force more EV sales, overlooking ethanol's emission-reducing abilities. Supporters compare these standards to the catalytic converter introduction in the '70s.
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🌾📈 Comprehensive Agricultural and Economic Update 🌍📉
Welcome back to our channel, where we delve into significant updates across agricultural markets, weather impacts, and economic conditions affecting global agriculture.
🇨🇳 Dry Weather Impacting China's Corn Crop:
China is facing challenges with its corn crop development due to prolonged dry weather and high temperatures, which have significantly reduced rainfall across major corn-growing regions since May 1st. With China projected to be the world’s second-largest corn producer this year, any impact on its crop development could have substantial implications for global corn supply.
📊 USDA Report Overview:
The latest USDA report left US corn and soybean production estimates unchanged, aligning with market expectations. However, the report adjusted Brazil's soybean production slightly downwards and significantly reduced the Russian wheat production forecast, which could influence global grain markets.
🌧️ US Corn Belt Weather Forecast:
Rain is expected to return to the US Corn Belt, potentially benefiting parts such as Nebraska, northern Iowa, and southern Minnesota with significant rainfall expected this weekend. However, regions like Missouri and Ohio might see drier conditions, which could impact crop moisture levels amid slightly above-normal temperatures forecasted for the next 10 days.
🚜 US Ethanol Production and Soybean Sales:
Ethanol production in the US saw a decrease last week, with output and stocks experiencing slight fluctuations. Meanwhile, the USDA reported another significant flash sale of soybeans to China, marking continued interest and procurement from one of the largest global soybean markets.
🌱 Challenges for High-Tech Agricultural Startups:
Emerging agricultural technology startups aiming to digitalize traditional farming practices are facing difficulties in connecting with farmers and adapting to a changing financial landscape. With a drop in investment and challenges in implementation, these startups are struggling to compete with established agribusiness giants like Cargill and ADM.
🌻 Shift in US Renewable Diesel Production:
The transition from a blenders credit to a producer credit in the US, starting January 2025, is expected to impact global vegetable oil imports and domestic soybean oil supply. This policy change could lead to a surplus in soybean meal and a shortage in soybean oil, significantly affecting feedstock supplies for renewable diesel production.
📉 Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Decisions:
Inflation rates have eased slightly, with the CPI showing a smaller increase than anticipated. This development, along with the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on rate cuts, underscores the complex economic landscape that policymakers are navigating.
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0:00 Is China Back?
2:25 USDA Preview
5:41 US Weather Update
7:32 Russian Crop Losses (Wheat)
9:02 CPI Preview
Welcome back to our channel, where we delve into the latest developments in agricultural markets, including flash sales, upcoming USDA reports, and evolving weather conditions affecting crop production.
🌱 Flash Sale of Soybeans to China:
The USDA reported a significant sale of soybeans this week, with 104,000 metric tons (4 million bushels) sold to China for delivery in the 2023/2024 marketing year. This sale is part of a broader trend, totaling 208,000 metric tons in recent purchases. Analysts suggest that changes in Brazilian tax policy, which have made Brazilian soybeans more expensive on the export market, might have influenced China's decision to purchase more U.S. soybeans.
📑 Upcoming USDA Reports:
The USDA is set to release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports today. While U.S. production estimates typically remain unchanged in June, there could be adjustments in demand on the balance sheets. Additionally, production numbers from South America and Russian wheat forecasts will be particularly scrutinized, given previous discrepancies with USDA's estimates. These reports are critical for traders and will likely influence market movements.
🌧️ Weather Conditions in the US Corn Belt:
The next 72 hours are expected to be mostly dry across the Corn Belt, with rain returning over the weekend. The forecast indicates 1-2 inches of rain in areas including northern Iowa and southern Minnesota, beneficial for crop moisture levels. However, regions like Illinois and Ohio might remain drier, which could impact crop conditions amid fluctuating temperatures forecasted over the next two weeks.
🌾 Russian Crop Losses and Global Impact:
Recent reports from Russia indicate that crop losses from May frosts are more severe than initially estimated, with 15-30% of winter grains affected. Despite these losses and a federal emergency declaration, exports are not expected to be impacted significantly. This situation will be critical to monitor as it may affect global grain supply and pricing.
📉 Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Decisions:
Today's CPI report is projected to show a slight increase in consumer prices, suggesting a stabilization in inflation rates. This data is crucial as it could influence the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates, expected to be announced later today. These economic indicators are essential for understanding broader market sentiments and potential impacts on agricultural investments.
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🌾📉 Agricultural Market Update: Crop Conditions, Weather Impacts, and Global Trade Movements 📊🌍
Welcome back to our channel where we provide detailed insights into the latest trends and changes in the agricultural sector, including crop conditions, weather forecasts, and global market dynamics.
🌽 US Corn and Soybean Conditions:
US corn conditions have seen a slight decline from last week, now rated at 74% good to excellent, but remain robust compared to historical standards and align with trade expectations. The corn crop is 95% planted nationally. Soybean conditions are notably strong at 72% good to excellent, the highest since 2020, with 87% of the crop planted. These conditions reflect favorable growing circumstances for the major US crops this season.
🌾 Wheat Harvest and Market Impact:
The US winter wheat harvest is progressing ahead of schedule, with 12% completed nationally, doubling the average pace. However, conditions have slightly worsened to 47% good to excellent. Concurrently, spring wheat ratings also dipped to 72% good to excellent. Additionally, global wheat markets reacted to Turkey’s announcement of a temporary import ban, which has pushed wheat futures to their lowest since early May, impacting US and global wheat prices.
🌦️ Weather Forecast Across the Corn Belt:
A light storm system moved across Minnesota this morning, with more rain expected in South Dakota, Minnesota, and Iowa over the next five days. While the near-term forecast suggests wet conditions in these areas, Illinois and eastern regions may remain dry. Temperature forecasts continue to predict above-normal heat, which could affect crop stress and development as the season progresses.
🌎 Global Wheat Dynamics:
Turkey’s recent decision to ban wheat imports until mid-October aims to protect local farmers during the harvest season. This could lead to more Russian wheat entering the global market, heightening competition for US and other wheat exporters. Such geopolitical and trade policies significantly influence global supply chains and market prices.
🇧🇷 Brazil's Corn Harvest:
Brazil is experiencing a record pace in its second corn crop harvest, with favorable yields in Mato Grosso but mixed results in other states due to varied weather conditions. The fast harvest pace and substantial projected total production highlight Brazil's significant role in global corn markets.
🚢 US Agricultural Shipments:
This week's USDA report shows a decline in US corn and soybean shipments, with corn exports down 5.4% from last week but up year-over-year, and soybean shipments significantly lower compared to last week. Wheat shipments also decreased but show a strong increase compared to the same period last year. These figures are crucial for tracking US competitiveness in global agricultural trade.
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🌾📈 Agricultural and Economic Insights: Weather, Market Trends, and Policy Updates 🌍💼
Welcome back to our channel where we cover the latest developments in agricultural markets, economic policies, and environmental factors impacting farming and global trade.
🌞 US Corn Belt Weather Forecast:
A significant weather shift is on the horizon for the US Corn Belt, with a stretch of temperatures expected to be 5 to 10 degrees above normal starting next Sunday. This heatwave could impact crop conditions across the region, especially as most areas are forecasted to remain dry through the 5-day period. Rain is expected to return to the western Corn Belt early next week, potentially aiding areas with moisture deficits.
📉 Market Dynamics in Corn and Soybeans:
Fund traders have notably increased their net short positions in the corn market, selling 88,000 contracts, and have also moved to increase short positions in soybeans and wheat. This significant selling activity could influence market prices and farmer revenue expectations going forward. Check the Fund Tracker charts for detailed trading trends.
🇧🇷 Brazil's Soybean Market Challenge:
Brazil's recent tax policy adjustment, which restricts the use of government tax credits, is poised to make Brazilian soybeans less competitive on the global stage. This change could lead to increased prices for Brazilian soybeans, making American beans more appealing in the international market. The policy is effective immediately but requires Congressional approval within four months to remain in effect.
🇨🇳 Chinese Soybean Imports:
Chinese soybean imports have decreased, with May figures showing a 15% drop from the previous year, although still the second highest on record for the month. The decline is partly attributed to flooding in Brazil affecting soybean supplies, with expectations for continued lower imports in June.
🌾 US-China Trade Concerns:
US farmers are increasingly worried about the potential for escalating trade tensions with China, especially following recent US tariffs on Chinese goods. There is concern that these tensions could further reduce the US share of the Chinese market, which has already been impacted by cheaper South American crops.
🌱 USDA Soybean Sales:
Despite trade concerns, USDA reported a flash sale indicating continued Chinese interest in US soybeans, with a recent purchase for delivery during the 2023/2024 marketing year. This suggests that there is still significant demand from China for US agricultural products.
📊 US Labor Market Update:
The US economy added more jobs than expected in May, indicating robust economic activity. This stronger-than-expected job growth, coupled with a slight uptick in unemployment and wage increases, could influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions in the coming months, with the market currently anticipating a possible rate cut in September.
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0:00 The Next "Bull Story?"
3:42 Drought is Over
5:57 Soybean Export Problem
8:05 Flash to Unknown
9:11 Rate Cuts Have Begun
🌾📉 Global Agricultural Trends and Economic Policy Updates 📊🌍
Welcome back to our channel where we explore the latest developments in global agriculture, including significant policy changes, market dynamics, and environmental conditions affecting crop production.
🇧🇷 Brazil's Tax Policy Shift and Its Impact on Agriculture:
This week, Brazil's Finance Ministry announced a tightening of tax credit usage, a move aimed at reducing the government's budget deficit. This sudden policy shift has sparked considerable pushback from the agricultural sector, particularly the soybean and cotton industries, as well as biofuels and food lobbies. Industry experts warn that this could make Brazilian producers less competitive, potentially lowering soybean prices and prompting shifts in crushing and biofuel production to the US and Argentina. Major traders like ADM have paused new offers for soybeans and corn, waiting for further clarity. This uncertainty contributed to a rally in row crops yesterday.
🌦️ US Drought Monitor and Weather Conditions:
Recent rainfall has brought improvements in drought conditions across significant portions of the Corn Belt, notably in northern Minnesota and southeastern Nebraska. However, areas like northwestern Illinois and northeastern Missouri have seen conditions worsen due to a lack of precipitation. The overall impact has been positive, with nearly all drought conditions erased in the Corn Belt after consistent spring rainfall.
🌽 US Corn and Soybean Market Movements:
US corn exports saw a robust increase last week, with net sales reaching 1.2 million metric tons, a significant uptick from the previous week. Mexico remains the largest buyer. Conversely, soybean sales were notably weaker, with a sharp decrease in purchases led by the Netherlands. Wheat sales also saw significant reductions, primarily due to decreased buying from Mexico. These fluctuations highlight the dynamic nature of global agricultural trade.
📉 Global Economic Shifts and Interest Rate Cuts:
The European Central Bank (ECB) reduced its key interest rate for the first time in five years, cutting it by a quarter point to 3.75%. This move, made despite inflation rates still well above the target, reflects broader economic pressures and a strategic shift towards stimulating economic growth. Canada also reduced its headline interest rate, indicating a trend among central banks to address slowing global economic activity.
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0:00 Losing Streak Hits 7 Days
1:29 US Weather Forecast
4:00 Russian Wheat Estimates Decline
5:27 China to Stockpile Wheat
6:45 Bird Flu Update
8:08 Ethanol Production Increases
9:09 US Stock Market All-Time Highs
🌾📉 Agricultural and Financial Markets Update: Key Trends and Global Impacts 📈🌍
🌽 Corn and Soybean Market Trends:
Corn and soybean futures have continued their downward trend, closing lower in seven consecutive sessions. The December 2024 corn contract experienced a 34-cent drop from a peak of $4.93, while the November 2024 soybean contract fell 77 cents from $12.25. With US planting progress currently ahead of schedule and a drier forecast for the Corn Belt, concerns about crop threats have diminished, influencing market sentiment.
🌤️ Weather Outlook for US Corn Belt:
The forecast shows minimal rainfall expected across the majority of the Corn Belt over the next 7 days, with Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas likely to see some precipitation. Cooler temperatures are anticipated to continue into next week, potentially affecting crop development and harvest schedules.
🌾 Global Wheat Supply Concerns:
Sovecon has lowered its forecast for Russia's wheat crop due to adverse weather conditions, estimating a significant reduction to 80.7 million metric tons. This forecast cut comes amid concerns from Russia's agriculture minister about the need for a national emergency declaration, which could provide financial support to farmers without impacting grain exports. Concurrently, China is increasing its domestic wheat purchases in response to global supply uncertainties and recent import reductions.
🦠 Bird Flu Developments:
A case of bird flu caused by the H5N2 strain, previously unconfirmed in humans, has resulted in a fatality in Mexico. This development is particularly concerning as it differs from the H5N1 strain affecting US dairy cows. The US has seen bird flu confirmations in dairy herds across ten states, raising public health and agricultural concerns.
🚗 US Ethanol Production and Gasoline Demand:
Ethanol production in the US has seen a slight increase, with output reaching 1.07 million barrels last week, up 6.8% year-over-year. However, gasoline demand has shown a slight decline, reflecting broader trends in energy consumption and market dynamics.
📈 Financial Market Highlights:
The S&P 500 achieved its 25th record high of the year, driven by a rally in major technology stocks like Nvidia and growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. These factors have also influenced movements in the Treasury yields, reflecting broader investor sentiment and economic forecasts.
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🌽🌱 Agriculture and Energy Market Overview: Commodity Trends and Global Events 📉🛢️
Welcome back to our channel where we dive into recent trends in agricultural commodities, weather impacts on crops, and shifts in the energy sector.
🌽 Corn and Soybean Market Trends:
Corn and soybean futures have seen a significant downturn, with both commodities posting lower closes in six consecutive sessions. The December 2024 corn contract fell 31 cents from a peak of $4.93, and the November 2024 soybean contract dropped nearly 70 cents from $12.25. Current US planting progress, which is ahead of schedule, coupled with a drier forecast for the US Corn Belt, has reduced concerns over major crop threats for now.
🌤️ US Weather Outlook:
The US Corn Belt is experiencing a shift towards drier and cooler-than-normal conditions, which could influence crop development in the coming weeks. With significant acreage still to be planted, these weather conditions could be crucial for the timely sowing of the remaining 7 million acres of corn and 19 million acres of soybeans.
🇧🇷 Brazilian Soybean Losses Due to Flooding:
In Brazil, historical flooding in Rio Grande do Sul has caused substantial damage to the soybean harvest, with losses estimated between 2.7 and 3 million metric tons. The floods, which occurred during a critical harvest period, also impacted grain storage facilities, compounding the challenges faced by farmers in the region.
🛢️ US Crude Oil Market Dynamics:
US crude prices have retreated sharply this week, erasing most of their gains for the year. The drop to a near four-month low of $73.25 per barrel follows OPEC+'s decision to increase production starting in October. This move, combined with concerns over high interest rates impacting global economic activity, has influenced oil market sentiments. However, the upcoming US summer driving season could provide some support for oil prices.
🎮 GameStop Stock Surge and Regulatory Scrutiny:
GameStop shares surged 21% following a social media post by Keith Gill, aka Roaring Kitty, revealing a significant stake in the company. This event has attracted attention from regulators and market platforms, with E-Trade considering action against Gill and the SEC investigating related trading activities. This situation highlights the ongoing impact of social media on stock market dynamics.
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0:00 Crop Ratings
3:36 Russia "Emergency"
6:31 Brazil Flooding
7:44 Reduced Brazil Estimates
9:23 Drier Forecast
10:37 US Grain Shipments Improve
11:36 Flash to Spain
🌽📈 Initial US corn conditions exceed last year, rated 75% good to excellent 🌱🇺🇸 91% of corn planted, soybean planting at 78% 🌾 States with top ratings: MI, MN, NE, NC, ND, PA, SD 📉 Winter wheat harvest at 6%, conditions improve to 49% good to excellent 🌾🌾 Spring wheat rated 74% good to excellent nationally 🇷🇺❄️ Russia may declare emergency due to frosts, 3.7 million acres damaged 🇧🇷🌊 Climate change worsens Brazil flooding, affects 90% of Rio Grande do Sul 🌽 StoneX lowers Brazil's corn and soybean crop estimates due to dry conditions and flooding 🌧️ Drier weather forecasted in Corn Belt, with potential for heavier rains in certain areas 🚢 US corn shipments increase, soybean and wheat shipments also rise 🌽 USDA reports flash sale of corn to Spain, with accumulated sales up 31% from last year 🌍📉 Climate change impacts agriculture worldwide.
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Welcome back to our channel for an in-depth update on the latest in agricultural markets, including significant movements in corn futures, trading patterns, and global economic implications.
🌽 Corn Futures and Trading Dynamics:
Corn futures experienced a notable decline last week, with the December 2024 contract dropping 22 cents from a weekly high of $4.93 per bushel. The decrease reflects a shift in market sentiment, where concerns about US planting delays have lessened and the current lack of drought is viewed as a bearish factor. Reports indicate that fund traders sold around 35,000 contracts late last week, contributing to a larger trend of increasing net short positions in the corn market.
📊 Commitment of Traders Report:
The latest CFTC data shows that fund traders have expanded their net short positions in corn, selling 16,000 contracts, while taking opposite positions in soybeans by buying 16,000 contracts. Meanwhile, a sell-off occurred in SRW wheat with a reduction of 5,000 contracts. These movements are crucial for understanding the broader commodity trading landscape.
🌧️ Weather Impact on Agriculture:
Current weather patterns show rain across key areas of the Corn Belt, affecting states like Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa. This trend is expected to continue, with a forecast suggesting below-normal precipitation in the coming days for the central and western Corn Belt. May was notably wet for regions like Iowa, affecting planting and crop conditions.
🚢 US Corn and Soybean Export Sales:
Corn export sales have declined, with a drop of 11% from the previous week, reflecting a dip in demand, with Mexico remaining the largest buyer. Soybean sales, however, increased by 18% from the previous week, with the largest purchases by unknown destinations. Wheat sales saw a significant reduction, with Italy emerging as the top buyer.
🇨🇳 China's Imports of Sustainable Agricultural Products:
China's first shipment of deforestation-free soybeans marks a policy shift towards more sustainable agricultural practices. The shipment underscores Beijing's commitment to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, though the higher costs of sustainably sourced products pose challenges for widespread adoption.
🛢️ OPEC+ Production Strategy:
OPEC+ has decided to extend its current production cuts until October, with plans to gradually phase them out over the following year. This strategy has supported crude prices above $80 per barrel and reflects ongoing adjustments to global supply dynamics in response to economic conditions.
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0:00 Drought is Over
6:27 Record Summer Heat?
10:11 Ethanol Wont' Qualify
12:57 Ethanol Production
14:48 Bird Flu Update
🌾🌦️ US Agriculture and Market Trends Update: Drought Monitor, Commodity Prices, and Ethanol Production 📈💧
Welcome back to our channel where we delve into the latest agricultural developments, including updates on drought conditions, commodity market trends, and energy production!
🌧️ USDA Drought Monitor Report:
Recent rainfall across the Corn Belt has brought some relief, improving conditions notably in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Missouri, and Iowa. However, parts of Kansas and Oklahoma saw drought conditions worsen. The overall impact on major crops shows a slight reduction in areas experiencing drought: Corn (5%), Soybeans (3%), and Spring Wheat (3%), while Winter Wheat remains at 25% and cattle areas at 12%. For a closer look at the regional changes, check out the linked USDA drought PDF.
🌡️ Summer Heat and Commodity Prices:
With the first four months of the year being the warmest in 175 years, there's increasing concern that 2024 could set new heat records. Analysts anticipate that this could drive natural gas and electricity prices higher due to increased air conditioning usage. Wheat futures have already reached their highest levels since July, with potential further increases due to supply shortages and challenging growing conditions globally, particularly in Russia and the potential for worsening drought in the US.
🌽 Ethanol Production and SAF Tax Credits:
US ethanol production saw a significant increase last week, with output rising by 4.8% and stocks adjusting slightly. However, a new pilot program for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) tax credits highlights challenges, as few corn farmers currently meet all three required climate-smart practices to qualify for these subsidies. This development underscores the ongoing adjustments within the energy sector to align with climate goals. Detailed ethanol production and demand charts are available below.
📊 Financial Markets Update: Moderna's Share Growth:
Moderna's stock continues to rise, boosted by anticipated US government funding for a late-stage trial of its mRNA bird flu vaccine. The potential funding, expected to reach tens of millions of dollars, has contributed to a 40% increase in Moderna's shares since the initial detection of bird flu in a Texas dairy worker. This financial movement reflects broader market responses to health crises and vaccine development efforts.
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🌾📉 Global Agricultural and Economic Update: Import Changes, Weather Impact, and International Relations 🌍💹
Welcome back to our channel for a comprehensive overview of significant developments in agriculture and global markets, including India's wheat import decisions, severe weather conditions, international trade issues, and geopolitical shifts.
🌾 India to Import Wheat Amid Shortage:
India plans to resume wheat imports for the first time in six years due to a severe reduction in domestic reserves, triggered by hot and dry weather and governmental sales to stabilize prices. The country is expected to scrap its 40% import tax on wheat by the end of June, allowing private traders to procure wheat, potentially from Russia, before reinstating the tax in October to protect local farmers. India might import between 3 to 5 million metric tons during this period. For a visual representation of the impact, see the attached charts.
🌧️ US Weather Update: Rain and Storms:
The US Plains and western Corn Belt are facing storm systems that could persist throughout the weekend, with expectations of heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms, particularly in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Flash flood warnings are currently in effect, and the region could see 1-3 inches of rainfall over the next 5-10 days. Detailed weather maps are available below.
🥩 China Suspends US Beef Imports from JBS Plant:
China has halted beef imports from a JBS plant in Colorado after discovering traces of ractopamine, a feed additive banned in many countries including China. This has led to a significant drop in cattle futures, impacting the US beef market notably since China is a major importer of US beef. JBS is actively working with relevant authorities to address the situation.
🌍 Geopolitical Tensions and US-Ukraine Policy:
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken indicated a potential shift in policy that may allow Ukraine to use American-supplied weapons to target locations within Russia, a move that could escalate military tensions significantly. This development follows European support for expanded military latitude for Ukraine and recent statements from Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding potential retaliation.
📉 US Stock Market Trends:
US stocks experienced declines amid concerns over interest rate policies and economic forecasts. The bond market's weak performance and a rise in Treasury yields have contributed to market uncertainties, with significant indices like the Dow Jones and Nasdaq recording losses. The Federal Reserve's stance on maintaining high interest rates to combat inflation further influences market sentiment.
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🌽🌱 US Agriculture Weekly Update: Corn and Soybean Planting, Wheat Conditions, and Market Shifts 📈🌧️
Welcome back to our detailed update on the latest in US agriculture, from crop planting progress to shifting market dynamics!
🌽 Corn and Soybean Planting Progress:
Corn planting has slightly surpassed the average pace with 83% of the crop planted nationally, a notable increase from 70% the previous week. Key states like Iowa and Nebraska are leading with at least 85% of their corn crop in the ground. Soybean planting is also ahead, with 68% completed nationally compared to 52% last week. This is above the average pace, showcasing effective planting efforts across major soybean-producing states. For state-specific details, see the attached charts.
🌾 Winter and Spring Wheat Conditions:
US winter wheat ratings have experienced a slight dip, now at 48% good-excellent, with deteriorations noted in states like Kansas and Colorado. Meanwhile, spring wheat planting is advancing well, with 88% of the crop planted, surpassing the average. This suggests a resilient start to the wheat growing season despite some regional challenges. Updated charts are available below.
🌧️ Weather Impact on Crop Growth:
Rain is expected to return to the western Corn Belt and US Plains later this week, which could affect recently planted crops with potential delays in fieldwork. The forecast predicts extensive coverage, particularly in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. An extended wet pattern is anticipated, which could impact crop conditions moving forward. For a detailed weather outlook, refer to the maps linked below.
🌍 International Trade Developments:
Argentina is set to commence corn shipments to China in July, marking a significant step in international agricultural trade, particularly as China moves to import GMO corn variants for animal feed. This development follows years of negotiations and could impact global corn markets.
🚢 US Corn and Soybean Shipments:
Recent USDA reports indicate a decline in US corn shipments, contrasting with an increase in wheat shipments, highlighting fluctuating global demand. Soybean shipments have shown a slight increase from last week but remain down year-over-year. Detailed shipment data can be found in the USDA reports linked below.
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🌾📈 Global Agriculture Update: Russian Wheat Production and Market Movements 🌍📉
Welcome back to our channel for an in-depth analysis of recent developments in global agriculture, focusing on Russian wheat production cuts, severe weather impacts, and agricultural market trends.
🌾 Russian Wheat Production Cuts:
The Russian agricultural consultancy IKAR has reduced its wheat production forecast by 2.4% to 81.5 million metric tons due to recent frosts and ongoing dry conditions. This adjustment is notably lower than USDA's estimate of 88 million metric tons. The accompanying maps below illustrate the forecasted warm and dry conditions expected to persist in Russia.
📉 Impact of Government Control on Russian Grain Exports:
Russian government pressure has increased local control over grain production and exports, leading major Western traders like Cargill and Louis Dreyfus to halt their Russian grain purchases. This shift has consolidated 75% of grain shipments from Russia's Black Sea terminals under top Russian traders with Kremlin ties, affecting global market transparency and pricing strategies.
📊 Market Movements in Agricultural Commodities:
The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report shows increased net short positions in the corn market by funds, contrasting with net buying in soybeans and SRW wheat. This reflects broader trends and sentiments in agricultural commodities trading. For more details, see the Fund Tracker charts linked below.
🌪️ Severe Weather Impacts in the Great Plains and South:
Over the weekend, severe storms and tornadoes caused significant damage across several states, including Texas and Kentucky, leading to power outages, fatalities, and state-level emergency declarations. This severe weather is impacting agricultural and community recovery efforts in these regions.
🦠 Bird Flu Vaccination Considerations:
In response to recent human cases of bird flu, the US and other nations are considering vaccinating workers in high-exposure roles within poultry and dairy sectors. Talks are underway to secure millions of vaccine doses, highlighting the growing concern over potential virus mutations and human transmission risks.
🐄 Cattle Market Update:
The recent Cattle on Feed report showed figures generally in line with expectations, leading to a neutral market response. Key statistics include placements and marketings relative to last year, providing insights into current cattle market conditions.
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🌽🌎 Global Agricultural Trends and Economic Insights Update 📊🌱
Welcome back to our channel for a comprehensive breakdown of the latest agricultural export figures, global farming strategies, and financial impacts on retirement planning!
🌽 US Corn and Soybean Export Sales:
Last week saw a significant increase in US corn export sales, jumping 23% from the previous week with Mexico leading as the top buyer. However, soybean sales remain subdued, showing a modest improvement but still lagging behind the four-week average, with Japan as the major purchaser. Wheat sales notably declined, with Haiti purchasing the majority. For more detailed numbers, see the charts below.
🇨🇳 China's Grain Import Strategy:
China plans to drastically cut grain imports over the next decade by enhancing farming productivity through technological advancements and GMO crops. The ambitious targets include reducing corn imports by 75%, wheat by 60%, and soybeans by 21%. However, challenges such as limited arable land, water scarcity, and an aging farming population may hinder these goals.
🌾 USDA Drought Monitor Update:
Recent rainfall has improved drought conditions across the Corn Belt, with significant relief noted in Michigan, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Missouri, Illinois, and Nebraska. Iowa has shown notable improvement with two-thirds of the state now drought-free. This update is crucial for understanding regional agricultural prospects. Access the full USDA drought report through the linked PDF.
🌍 International Grain Production Forecasts:
The International Grain Council has revised its global wheat production estimates downward, primarily due to poor weather affecting crops in Russia and Ukraine. Additionally, global corn production forecasts have been cut, with significant reductions in Argentina’s expected yield. These adjustments are vital for global market dynamics.
💰 Economic Impact on Retirement Accounts:
The surging stock market has notably benefited retirement accounts, with Fidelity Investments reporting record numbers of 401(k) millionaires. Despite these gains, many Americans face challenges in saving for retirement, exacerbated by inflation and a lack of access to workplace retirement programs.
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🦠 Bird Flu Case in Michigan:
A second bird flu infection has been confirmed in a Michigan dairy worker, marking another rare human case linked to dairy cattle. The individual experienced mild symptoms, primarily pink eye, and has since recovered. This follows a similar case in Texas earlier this year. The CDC has reassured there is no evidence of human-to-human transmission currently. In response, pharmaceutical companies like CureVac NV are developing vaccines, causing a notable surge in their stock prices.
🌩️ Severe Weather Forecast in the US Plains and Midwest:
The coming days will bring severe weather across the US Plains and Midwest, with potential for tornadoes, heavy winds, hail, and flash flooding. Areas expected to be hardest hit include central and eastern Nebraska today, with Kansas and Oklahoma on Saturday, and a range of states from Illinois to Arkansas by Sunday. For safety and preparedness tips, see the linked weather maps below.
🌾 Global Grain Prices and Russian Economy:
Russia faces potential economic challenges from rising global grain prices, exacerbated by recent dry weather and frost damaging its wheat crop. Historical measures have included bans on grain exports to stabilize domestic prices, with significant global repercussions. Current weather conditions and economic strategies in Russia are pivotal in understanding global food security and market fluctuations.
🌽 Brazil's Corn Crop Forecast:
Agroconsult has revised down its forecast for Brazil's second corn crop due to drought in major producing states. This anticipated 10.5% decrease in production could impact global corn supplies, although global stockpiles are expected to be at a five-year high. This situation underscores the complexities of agricultural economics and climate impacts on food production.
🚗 US Ethanol Production and Gasoline Demand:
Ethanol production in the US has shown an increase, aligning with rising gasoline demand. This trend offers insights into energy markets and potential economic indicators. Detailed statistics on production, stock levels, and demand trends can be found in the charts linked below.
🏦 Federal Reserve's Economic Outlook:
Federal Reserve officials signal that interest rates may remain high longer than anticipated, with potential further rate increases if inflation accelerates again. However, recent economic data showing cooling price pressures and a slowdown in hiring could influence future rate cuts. Fed Governor Christopher Waller emphasized the need for continued positive economic data before considering rate reductions.
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🌩️ Severe Weather in the Midwest
Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds has issued a proclamation of disaster emergency for 15 counties due to severe weather on Tuesday. Several tornadoes touched down near Des Moines, with search efforts ongoing to account for those affected. The heaviest rainfall occurred in Iowa, eastern Nebraska, and southern Wisconsin, also impacting Minnesota and eastern South Dakota. Check out the detailed weather maps below for more information.
🌾 Global Agricultural Market Trends
US Soybean Sales to China
Recent reports indicate that China may have purchased at least two cargoes of US soybeans. Each shipment is approximately 65,000mt and scheduled for July delivery. This comes amid a challenging season for US soybean sales to China, which has not purchased any new crop US soybeans for the first time in 19 years. Brazil remains a key supplier, although recent floods and the end of the prime export season have driven up prices.
Wheat Futures Rally
Wheat futures surged after Russian agricultural consultancy IKAR reduced its forecast for Russia's 2024/2025 wheat crop to 83.5mmt, a 10% decrease from last season. The drop is due to frosts and hot, dry weather. Similar conditions are expected to affect Ukraine's wheat crop, raising concerns about global supply shortages and pushing wheat futures to a nine-month high.
🏛️ Policy Updates
Gasoline Reserve Release
President Joe Biden announced the release of 1 million barrels of gasoline from the Northeast reserve to help lower prices as summer driving increases. The gasoline will be released between Memorial Day and July 4th. Despite this effort, experts believe it will have minimal impact on current prices, which are averaging around $3.60 per gallon.
📊 Economic Indicators
USDA Corn Sales
On Tuesday, the USDA reported multiple flash sales of corn. US exporters sold 113,050mt (4 million bushels) to Mexico, split evenly between the 2023/2024 and 2024/2025 marketing years. Additionally, 110,000mt (4 million bushels) were sold to Spain for the 2023/2024 marketing year.
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🌽📊 US Agriculture Update: Planting Progress, Weather Impact, and Market Trends 🚜🌦️
Welcome back to our channel where we dive into the latest developments in US agriculture, including crop planting updates, weather patterns, and commodity market trends!
🌾 Corn and Soybean Planting Progress:
Significant progress was made last week in corn planting, with 21% of the national crop planted, bringing the total to 70%. This is close to the average despite recent weather challenges. Key states like Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska are leading with over 70% of their crops planted. Soybean planting also advanced, now 52% complete, surpassing the average pace. The charts below provide a detailed state-by-state breakdown.
🌾 Winter Wheat Conditions:
The condition of the US winter wheat crop has seen a slight decline, now rated 49% good-excellent. Despite this, it remains the highest rating for this time of year since 2020. The spring wheat planting is ahead of schedule, with 79% completed nationally. Specific improvements and declines in states like Kansas and Oklahoma are highlighted in the attached charts.
🌧️ Weather Update for the Corn Belt:
This morning, rains swept across the western Corn Belt, affecting South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, and Minnesota. While the forecast shows a drier outlook, widespread rain remains expected in the region, potentially impacting further planting activities. Detailed precipitation maps are included below for a closer look at the affected areas.
🌍 International Wheat Market - Russia:
Recent frosts in Russia have led to a spike in wheat export prices and significant crop losses, prompting several regions to declare emergencies. Despite these setbacks, record grain exports are anticipated by Russia's agriculture ministry. This situation presents a complex dynamic in the global wheat market, with implications for prices and supply.
📈 Commodity Market Volatility:
A recent Forbes article draws parallels between today's commodity market behaviors and the volatile price movements of the 1970s. With prices expected to surge and then potentially crash, traders face both significant opportunities and risks. The historical comparison chart of corn prices from the 1970s to the 1980s is provided for context.
🚢 US Commodity Shipments:
Last week's corn shipments were robust, surpassing expectations, while soybean and wheat shipments fell short, highlighting the fluctuating nature of commodity exports. Detailed figures and comparisons to previous periods are shown in the charts below.
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🌧️🌾 US Corn Belt Weather Update & Agricultural Market Trends 📈🌽
Welcome to our channel where we delve into the latest agricultural trends and weather updates that impact planting and market dynamics!
🌀 Weather Conditions in the Corn Belt:
Rain has made a significant return to the Corn Belt this week, with an active radar observed since Sunday. Severe weather over the weekend and potential thunderstorms today are expected to affect several areas including South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Ohio. This ongoing wet pattern could extend planting delays for many farmers. For detailed regional forecasts, see the maps linked below.
📉 Market Movements in Agriculture:
In the commodities market, fund traders have notably reduced their net short positions in corn and SRW wheat according to the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report. This shift suggests a changing sentiment in the market which could influence corn and wheat prices moving forward. The visual Fund Tracker charts provide a comprehensive breakdown of these trends.
🌍 Global Wheat Exports:
Russia's wheat exports are projected to remain steady despite recent challenges. Severe frosts have damaged crops, leading to a need for replanting in several regions. Additionally, persistent dry conditions are further straining crop yields. These factors are crucial for global wheat supply considerations.
🌱 Biofuel Industry Developments:
Twenty-five biofuel organizations have urged the Treasury for clearer guidelines on the 45Z tax credit and an update to the GREET model, which are vital for forecasting the production of low-carbon renewable fuels. Delays in these updates could impact the industry's progress towards greener energy solutions.
🛢️ Oil Market Insights:
Oil prices have climbed, influenced by a drop in US crude inventories and optimistic economic forecasts suggesting potential Federal Reserve rate cuts. This increase is reflected in the significant rise in WTI crude prices, now surpassing $80 per barrel. Economic indicators and their implications on oil demand are explored in the context of current market trends.
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🚰 US Drought Monitor Update:
Recent rainfall has brought some relief to the Corn Belt, improving drought conditions notably in parts of Illinois, Missouri, Kentucky, and Iowa. However, areas like southwest Nebraska and central Kansas have experienced worsening dry conditions. The USDA's weekly drought monitor shows improvements and challenges across these regions. For a deeper dive, check out the linked USDA drought PDF.
🌱 Crop Condition and Export Sales:
Despite favorable weather in some areas, U.S. corn and soybean export sales have not met expectations. Corn sales saw a decline, with Mexico being the largest buyer, while soybean sales also dropped significantly, with Egypt leading purchases. Interestingly, wheat sales surged, thanks largely to demand from Mexico. The detailed charts below offer a clearer view of these trends.
🌾 Kansas Wheat Tour Insights:
This year's Kansas wheat yield is projected to be the highest since 2021, thanks to improved weather conditions. Crop scouts estimate significantly higher figures than the USDA, suggesting potential market shifts. These findings could influence wheat market dynamics in the near term.
🌎 International Crop Forecasts:
In Argentina, the Buenos Aires grains exchange has cut its soybean production forecast due to adverse weather, aligning closely with USDA estimates. This reduction highlights the impact of climate on global crop yields and could affect soybean market prices.
📈 Economic and Stock Market Trends:
The Dow Jones made headlines by surpassing the 40,000 mark, reflecting optimism about potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and strong earnings reports. However, the cautious stance of Fed officials regarding interest rates suggests that market volatility may continue. These financial movements are crucial for understanding broader economic trends.
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0:00 "Wall" of Farmer Selling
1:47 Rain / Weather
5:01 Reduced Soybean Crush
6:24 Ethanol Production Update
7:27 Soybean Flash
7:59 Consumer Inflation Update
9:37 Retail Sales
🌽 Corn Market Dynamics:
December corn struggles to surpass the $5 mark, affected by strong "hedge pressure" from farmers. With planting in full swing, farmer sales have intensified. Despite a substantial short-covering move, fund traders still hold a significant short position. The next two weeks of planting progress will be critical for future price actions.
🌧️ Weather Impact on Planting:
Recent rains in Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, and a stronger system in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri may influence planting schedules. Predictions suggest more widespread rain next week, likely causing further planting delays. Detailed precipitation maps below provide more insights.
🌱 Soybean Processing Data:
NOPA's latest report shows a drop in the April soybean crush to a seven-month low, significantly below market expectations. This downturn in processing volume coincides with reduced soybean oil stocks, marking the first decline since October. For visual details, see the accompanying charts below.
🚗 Ethanol Production and Gasoline Demand:
US ethanol production has seen an uptick, reflecting a year-on-year increase. However, implied gasoline demand shows a mixed picture, with a slight weekly increase but a notable decline compared to last year. This trend offers insights into broader economic activities, detailed in the charts below.
📈 Economic Indicators - Inflation & Consumer Spending:
Inflation moderated last month, with the CPI rising less than expected. This slower inflation rate and stagnant consumer spending in retail sales could influence upcoming Federal Reserve decisions, possibly leading to rate cuts later this year. Market reactions and potential impacts on policy are analyzed, supported by the latest charts.
🌱 Flash Sale of Soybeans:
A significant soybean sale to unknown destinations highlights continued demand in the export market. Details of the sale volumes for the upcoming marketing years are crucial for market stakeholders.
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🌦️ Weather Forecast for US Corn Belt:
The coming five days promise dry weather across key agricultural zones including Iowa, Illinois, and Michigan, providing a crucial "window" for farming activities before rains return next week. Expect 1-3 inches in selected areas—crucial info for our farming community!
🌱 Brazilian Crop Forecast:
Big news from Brazil as Conab projects a surge in soybean production to 147.7 million metric tons, thanks to expanded acreage. Meanwhile, the corn outlook sees a dip compared to last year. How will these shifts impact global commodity prices?
🇨🇳🇺🇸 New Tariffs Alert:
President Biden announces significant tariffs on Chinese goods including EVs and solar cells, marking a bold move in US-China trade relations. What does this mean for the economy and the upcoming election? Let’s discuss!
🌽 US Corn Sales:
USDA reports robust corn sales to Mexico, signaling strong export demand. Dive into the details of this impactful trade development.
📊 Economic Indicators:
April's wholesale price index jumped unexpectedly, hinting at persistent inflation pressures. Stay tuned as we break down what this means for the economy ahead of today's CPI report release.
👇 Visual Insights Below:
Don't miss our detailed maps and charts in the video below, providing you with a visual understanding of all these dynamics!
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0:00 Russia Crop Scare Event
2:39 India Wheat Stocks are LOW
5:27 Planting Delays
7:33 US Weather Update
9:14 US Grain Shipment Update
10:14 Inflation Preview
Frost Impact in Russia & India: Explore how unseasonal frosts in Russia are fueling wheat export prices and affecting crop forecasts, alongside India's lowest wheat stocks since 2008 due to poor crops and government policies.
US Planting Updates: Get insights into the progress of US corn and soybean planting, with analysis on states ahead and behind schedule, and understand the implications for supply dynamics.
Weather Outlook: Discover the latest weather patterns across the US Corn Belt, highlighting areas of scattered rain and projections for the next five days. Stay updated on how these conditions could influence crop development.
Export Trends: Learn about recent trends in US corn, soybean, and wheat shipments, including variations from previous weeks and their impact on market sentiment.
Market Expectations: Explore the impact of rising stocks and bonds ahead of April's PPI and CPI readings, and understand market expectations for these key economic indicators.
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0:00 Short-Covering Event
2:04 USDA Report
5:24 Soybean Oil Spikes
6:42 Corn Belt Weather Update
8:13 China Import Forecasts
Fund Trader Activity: Explore how fund traders dramatically reduced their net short positions in the corn and soybean markets, marking the largest weekly short-covering events in years. Get insights from the latest CFTC data and understand the implications for market sentiment.
USDA Report Analysis: Learn about the favorable impact of Friday's USDA report on the corn market, including increased demand estimates for old crop US balance sheets. Understand the market response to USDA's projections for the 2024 crop year, particularly regarding trend US corn and soybean yields and South American production estimates.
Soybean Oil Futures Surge: Discover why soybean oil futures experienced a significant spike, settling 4.2% higher in response to anticipation of potential tariffs on Chinese used cooking oil. Learn how this development could affect biofuel production and market dynamics.
Weekend Weather Recap: Get a comprehensive overview of the weekend weather across the US Corn Belt, highlighting mostly dry conditions with some localized rainfall. Explore the forecast for rain returning early this week and its potential impact on key agricultural regions.
China's Import Forecast Reduction: Understand the implications of China's reduced import forecasts for corn and soybean crops, driven by expectations of higher domestic harvests and decreased capacity for domestic pig production.
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Tune in for the latest insights on today's USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports, set to be released at 11:00am CST. Learn about the anticipated changes in old crop US balance sheets and the expected across-the-board cuts in global balance sheets, particularly for Brazil and Argentina's crops. Explore the implications of USDA's first new crop balance sheet projections for corn, soybeans, and wheat, and how they may influence market sentiment.
Discover the recent updates from the USDA's weekly drought monitor, highlighting improvements in drought conditions across key agricultural regions. Gain valuable insights into the areas experiencing drought, including the Corn Belt and its impact on crops such as corn, soybeans, and wheat.
Understand the emerging La Niña weather pattern and its potential effects on summer temperatures and precipitation in the US. Explore NOAA's forecast for warmer temperatures and drier conditions, and how they could exacerbate existing drought conditions.
Learn about the recent trends in US corn and soybean export sales, including the significant increase in net corn sales and the flash sale of corn to Mexico reported by USDA. Gain valuable insights into the factors driving export demand and their implications for market dynamics.
Stay informed and stay ahead in the ever-evolving landscape of agricultural markets. Don't miss out on the expert analysis and actionable insights – subscribe now for weekly updates on crop markets and agricultural trends. 🌱📉
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0:00 Drier (not dry) Forecast
2:04 Russian Frost
4:10 USDA Preview
5:59 GMO Wheat in China
7:14 Ethanol Production
8:17 SPR Debacle
Join us for today's agricultural market update as we analyze the latest developments impacting crop production and market dynamics. Discover how the US radar activity, including morning rain patterns across Iowa, Illinois, Tennessee, and Kentucky, may affect crop conditions in key regions. Explore the updated Euro model forecasts for the near and extended periods, providing insights into potential shifts in precipitation patterns.
Learn about the consequences of early May frosts on Russian crops, with three regions declaring a state of emergency and analysts revising crop production forecasts. Gain valuable insights into the upcoming USDA monthly Crop Production and WASDE report, which is expected to set a bearish tone for row crops, including corn and soybeans. Understand the significance of China's approval of gene-edited disease-resistant wheat and its implications for global food security.
In addition, we delve into the recent trends in US ethanol production and the Biden administration's decision to set a price ceiling to replenish oil reserves. Explore how these developments could impact the energy and agricultural sectors in the coming weeks.
Stay informed and stay ahead in the dynamic world of agriculture. Watch now for expert analysis, market insights, and actionable strategies. Don't miss out on the latest updates – subscribe today for weekly agricultural market updates. 🌱📈
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0:00 US Weather Update
2:05 FRAUDULENT Cooking Oil
6:06 Brazil Flood Update
7:41 Panama Canal Update
8:26 Argentina Problems
In this week's agricultural market update, we explore the impact of the upcoming drier spell in certain areas of the US Corn Belt and the potential consequences of used cooking oil (UCO) imports from China. Learn how the Euro model forecasts rainfall distribution across central and eastern Corn Belt regions versus drier conditions in North and South Dakota, Minnesota, and more.
We delve into the concerns raised by industry groups and biofuel companies regarding UCO imports from China, questioning if they meet US environmental standards amid suspicions of fraudulence. Discover the implications of increased inspection demands and the link between UCO and palm oil mixing, highlighting environmental sustainability challenges.
Furthermore, we discuss the aftermath of historical flooding in southern Brazil, examining the damage to grain silos and its impact on exports and the economy. Gain insights into ongoing recovery efforts and the potential losses incurred by unharvested soybean crops.
Lastly, we explore the recovery of the Panama Canal from drought conditions and the emerging threat of leafhopper outbreaks in Argentina, driven by rising temperatures and their implications for crop planning.
Stay informed and up-to-date on the latest agricultural market developments. Watch now to navigate your trading strategies effectively and anticipate future trends. Don't forget to subscribe for weekly insights and stay ahead in the dynamic world of agriculture. 🌱📈
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Join us for this week's agricultural market update as we explore the latest developments impacting crop planting progress, global wheat prices, and upcoming USDA reports. Learn how unfavorable weather conditions, including heavy rainfall and dry spells, are affecting US corn and soybean planting, as well as winter wheat ratings. Discover the implications of the wide band of storms sweeping across the central US and its potential impact on fieldwork delays.
We delve into the surge in Russian wheat prices driven by dry conditions and late spring frosts, offering insights into the potential repercussions for global wheat markets. Additionally, we provide a preview of the upcoming USDA Crop Production and WASDE reports, highlighting expectations for national yield projections and demand adjustments.
Don't miss out on the latest updates shaping agricultural markets. Watch now to stay informed and navigate your trading strategies with confidence. Subscribe for weekly insights and stay ahead in the ever-changing world of agriculture. 🚜📊
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In this week's market update, we dive into the significant shifts in commodity markets driven by severe weather events and economic indicators. Join us as we explore the impact of heavy rainfall in Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul, leading to devastating floods and potential losses in soybean production. Meanwhile, in the US, an active weather pattern continues to slow fieldwork across the Corn Belt, impacting planting progress and market sentiment.
We analyze the latest USDA flash sale of soybeans and its implications for global trade dynamics, shedding light on the ongoing market trends in agricultural commodities. Additionally, we delve into the recent release of US labor market data, which fell short of expectations, signaling a slowdown in job growth and wage increases.
Don't miss out on the insights and updates shaping commodity markets. Watch now to stay informed and make informed decisions in your trading strategies. Subscribe for weekly updates and stay ahead of the curve in agricultural commodities trading. 🌾📊
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In this week's market update, we delve into the significant shifts in grain and oilseed futures driven by recent weather events and market dynamics. Join us as we explore the impact of heavy rains in Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul, disrupting harvests and raising concerns over crop quality and yield losses. Meanwhile, in Argentina, the Buenos Aires grains exchange has slashed its forecast for the corn crop due to damage caused by leafhoppers and unfavorable weather conditions.
Back in the US, the release of the USDA's weekly drought monitor data highlights the mixed effects of recent rainfall on drought conditions across the Corn Belt and High Plains. While some regions saw improvements, others faced deteriorating conditions, impacting crop outlooks and market sentiment.
We also analyze the latest USDA export sales data, examining the trends in corn, soybean, and wheat sales and their implications for global trade dynamics. Additionally, we explore the role of fund traders in driving sharp rallies in grain and oilseed futures, shedding light on their positioning and market influence.
Don't miss out on the insights and updates shaping the grain and oilseed markets. Watch now to stay informed and make informed decisions in your trading strategies. Subscribe for weekly updates and stay ahead of the curve in agricultural commodities trading.
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🔔 Breaking News 🔔 - A potential rail strike in Canada threatens to shake up supply chains across North America. Over 9,000 workers from Canadian Pacific Kansas City and Canadian National Railway are on the brink of a strike, demanding increased rest periods. Despite the rail companies making offers, negotiations have stalled with the union rejecting these proposals. These two rail giants represent nearly 90% of the industry's profits and over 75% of the railroad transport volume. The strike deadline is looming on May 22. Stay tuned as we follow this developing story.
🌧️ Weather Update 🌧️ - Heavy rain has returned to the central US, affecting states like Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, and North Dakota. A strong system also covers the Gulf Coast, signaling an active weather pattern that could continue for more than 10 days. Detailed weather maps below show predictions for more rain across the Corn Belt next week.
🌾 Ethanol Production Rises 🌾 - US ethanol production has seen a boost, with weekly output rising to 1 million barrels, a 3.5% increase from last week. However, despite a drop in ethanol stocks, the overall trend shows a significant year-over-year increase. Implied gasoline demand is fluctuating, with recent figures suggesting a decline compared to last year. Check out the latest charts below for a detailed analysis.
⛽ Oil Market Fluctuations ⛽ - Oil prices have plummeted to a seven-week low, with WTI crude dropping by 3.6% amid unexpected increases in US crude stocks and geopolitical developments. Diesel and gasoline futures have also dipped to their lowest since July 2023. We break down the factors driving these price changes and what it might mean for the market.
💹 Federal Reserve's Economic Outlook 💹 - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain interest rates, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicating that rate cuts could be on the horizon depending on job market trends. Despite inflation pressures, the Fed is adjusting its strategy in hopes of achieving a 2% inflation rate. Dive into the discussion with our detailed analysis of the Fed's latest moves and economic projections.
📈 Stay Updated 📈 - Don’t forget to like, subscribe, and turn on notifications to keep up with all the latest developments. Comment below with your thoughts or questions!
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Updated Guidance on SAF Subsidies: The Biden administration released updated guidance on Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) subsidies, now allowing biofuels made from corn, soybeans, and other agricultural products in SAF production. To qualify for SAF tax credits, producers must demonstrate that their fuel emits at least 50% fewer emissions than petroleum-based jet fuel. Ethanol used in SAF production must originate from farms implementing climate-smart agricultural practices like efficient fertilizer application and no-till farming. This guidance aims to incentivize environmentally sustainable practices in biofuel production. 🌱✈️
Rainfall Patterns in Central US: Rain is forecasted to return to portions of the central US on Thursday and Friday, with heaviest amounts expected in Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin, southeast Nebraska, and eastern Kansas. The 10-day forecast projects wet conditions across almost the entire central US and the US Corn Belt, with significant rainfall totals predicted. These rains could benefit agricultural regions but may also cause delays in fieldwork. 🌧️🌽
Delayed Wheat Shipments to Egypt: Vessels carrying wheat bound for Egypt have been delayed in Russian ports for weeks despite being inspected and approved for shipment. Each vessel is carrying about 60,000mt of wheat purchased from Russian grain exporter TD RIF. Issues with Russian federal authorities granting clearance have resulted in delays, impacting hundreds of thousands of grain shipments. This delay could affect wheat supply chains and global grain markets. 🚢🌾
Sharp Decline in ADM Shares: Shares of Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) fell sharply on Tuesday, dropping as much as 5.5%, following the company's announcement of reduced profit expectations for the year. Factors contributing to the decline include decreased farmer sales, abundant grain supplies, and increased imports of alternative feedstocks for biofuel production. ADM's first-quarter earnings also fell by 30% compared to the previous year, highlighting ongoing challenges facing the company. 📉💼
Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision: The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady following its meeting today, signaling that rate cuts are unlikely in the near future. Officials project a more patient approach to rate adjustments, aiming to ease inflation toward the Fed's target of 2%. This stance suggests that the Fed is not considering rate hikes at this time, emphasizing a cautious approach to monetary policy amid economic uncertainties. 🏦📈
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Decline in US Share of China's Soybean Market: This year, the US share of China's soybean market is expected to further decline, partly due to a bumper soybean crop in Argentina. Argentina is forecast to produce 50mmt of soybeans, double last year's production during a historic drought. Additionally, competitive prices from the Brazilian soybean crop will also hold a significant share of China's market. Last year, the US share of the Chinese market fell to 24%, with Chinese traders anticipating further decline due to concerns surrounding the US presidential election. 🌱📉
Strike of Argentine Oilseed Union: The Argentine Oilseed Crushers Union initiated a strike on Monday in response to a bill introduced by Argentina's president, Javier Milei. The bill proposes measures to reduce the minimum salary subject to income tax and includes labor reform. Milei aims to address high inflation and public spending since taking office in December, but opposition from the center-left and unions has impeded progress. The strike is expected to continue through today as Congress debates the legislation. ⚖️🇦🇷
Rainfall Patterns in US Corn Belt: Rainfall moved over far eastern areas of the US Corn Belt this morning, with more rain forecasted for Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nebraska, eastern Kansas, and northern Missouri over the next 5 days. These rains may return to the western Corn Belt and other regions by Thursday, potentially hindering planting progress but also helping to alleviate drought conditions. 🌧️🌽
Progress of US Corn and Soybean Planting: US corn planting is ahead of schedule, with 27% of the crop planted nationally as of Sunday, surpassing the 22% average. Similarly, soybean planting progress is ahead, with 18% of the crop planted compared to the 10% average. However, some states still lag behind in planting progress, while others are well ahead. 🌱🚜
Winter Wheat Ratings and Crop Progress: US winter wheat ratings declined slightly last week, with 49% of the crop rated good-excellent. Despite this decline, the rating was in line with expectations and the highest for this time of year since 2020. Meanwhile, the spring wheat crop is progressing well, with 34% planted compared to the 19% average. 🌾📉
US Grain Shipments: Corn shipments declined last week, with 1.2mmt inspected for export, down from the previous week and compared to the same period last year. Similarly, soybean shipments were soft, while wheat shipments saw a slight increase compared to the previous week and a significant rise compared to the same period last year. 🚢🌾
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Midwest Tornado Outbreak: Over the weekend, a flurry of tornadoes wreaked havoc across the Midwest. On Friday alone, 106 tornadoes tore through six states, causing widespread destruction, particularly in Nebraska and Iowa. Despite the catastrophic damage, few injuries were reported, and fortunately, there were no fatalities. However, on Saturday, several tornadoes struck Oklahoma, resulting in extensive structural damage and sadly, four fatalities along with numerous injuries. The affected communities are now in the process of recovery and rebuilding. 🌪️🏘️
Fund Traders Adjust Corn Positions: According to the latest Commitment of Traders data released by the CFTC, fund traders have reduced their net short position in the corn market. During the week ending April 23, they were net buyers of 46k contracts of corn, though the net short position remains historically large at 226k contracts. A similar trend was observed in soybeans, with fund traders being net buyers of 17k contracts, while maintaining a historically large net short position. Meanwhile, they were net buyers of 20k contracts of SRW wheat. 🌽💼
Impact of Biofuel Feedstock Imports on Soybean Market: The rise in biofuel feedstock imports, including alternatives like used cooking oil, tallow, and canola oil, has led to reduced demand for soybean oil. Consequently, crush margins have declined, prompting earlier seasonal maintenance closures of soybean processing plants. Despite government incentives driving soybean crush expansion, concerns over excess capacity have emerged due to heightened competition. In January, soybean oil accounted for a record-low 32% of feedstocks used for biodiesel production. 🌿🔧
Drought Threatens Russian Wheat Crop: Russia's wheat-growing regions are facing drought conditions, particularly in southwestern Russia, which could impact this year's wheat crop. Some industry experts have lowered their crop forecasts due to the adverse weather. While central Russia's spring planting and winter grain crops are expected to fare better, the overall grain harvest in Russia is projected to decline to 132mmt from 144.9mmt last year. 🌾🇷🇺
Inflation and Consumer Spending: The core PCE price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation, surged in March, exceeding expectations with a 2.8% gain on an annual basis. Consumer spending also saw a significant increase last month, rising by 0.5%, driven by a strong labor market. This combination of high inflation and robust consumer spending is likely to deter the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates in the near future. 💲💹
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USDA's Weekly Drought Monitor: Light to moderate precipitation across the Corn Belt last week brought relief to many areas, improving conditions in parts of Minnesota, Missouri, Illinois, Michigan, and Wisconsin, as well as in parts of Iowa. However, dry conditions persisted in southern Missouri and western Kentucky, leading to expanding drought conditions in those areas. Additionally, above-normal temperatures and dry weather in the High Plains worsened conditions in central and western Kansas, the panhandle of Oklahoma, and eastern South Dakota. Drought remains a concern for various agricultural sectors. 🌧️🌾
US Wheat Futures Rally: US wheat futures rallied on Thursday, with the Jul24 Kansas City contract gaining over 10 cents and reaching its highest close since late December. The rally, which has seen the contract gain nearly $1 per bushel since early March, has been influenced by factors such as developments in the Black Sea region, potential Indian imports, and declining US crop ratings. The contract has closed higher for six consecutive days, reflecting market optimism. 🌾📈
Upcoming Climate Model for Ethanol Producers: The Biden administration is set to release a climate model next Tuesday that will determine how ethanol producers can qualify for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) subsidies through climate-smart agriculture practices. These practices include the use of cover crops, efficient tilling, and fertilizer application. The model is expected to be more restrictive for corn ethanol than initially anticipated, according to reports from Reuters earlier this month. 🌱🛢️
US Economic Growth Slows: US economic growth in the first quarter fell to a level not seen in almost two years, with GDP increasing at a 1.6% annualized rate, below economists' projections. Inflation rose more than expected during the same period, with the personal consumption expenditure price index climbing to 3.7%. The service sector's 5.1% increase was the main driver of inflation. These developments may lead to increased pressure on the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts further and even consider raising rates. 📉💰
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India's Wheat Stocks at 16-Year Low: India's wheat stocks have dropped to their lowest level in 16 years due to two consecutive years of lower crop yields. The Indian government is selling record amounts of stocks to increase local supply and lower domestic prices. Untimely rainfall in northern India has delayed purchases by state-run agencies, leading to a 25% decrease compared to last year. If stocks aren't replenished, India may need to import wheat for the first time since 2017. 🌾🇮🇳
Rain Returns to Central US: Rainfall is expected to return to the central US today and tomorrow, with the highest totals forecasted for Missouri, eastern Kansas, northwest Oklahoma, and western Nebraska. The 5-day forecast indicates significant rainfall for Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Wisconsin, South Dakota, and North Dakota, while Indiana and Ohio will be drier. The active weather pattern may continue for at least a week, causing delays in fieldwork. 🌧️🌽
Bird Flu Detected in Grocery Store Milk: Grocery store milk has tested positive for bird flu, although the virus in pasteurized milk wasn't infectious. Starting Monday, the USDA will require dairy cattle to be tested for bird flu before being moved across state lines, focusing mainly on lactating cattle. Some cows infected with bird flu have not fully recovered their ability to produce milk, impacting the dairy industry. 🥛🐦
US Ethanol Production Declines: US ethanol production declined last week, with weekly output down 3% from the previous week and 6.8% lower compared to the same week last year. Ethanol stocks were slightly down from the previous week but up compared to the same week last year. Implied gasoline demand also decreased compared to the previous week and the same week last year. 🌽🛢️
USDA Weekly Export Sales Report: USDA will release its weekly Export Sales report today, with pre-report estimates suggesting varying figures for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Analysts will closely monitor the report for insights into current marketing year trends and export demand. 📈🌾
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Rain Returns to US Corn Belt: Rainfall is expected to return to the US Corn Belt on Thursday and Friday, with coverage extending across Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Missouri, eastern South Dakota, and Nebraska. However, eastern areas like Indiana and Ohio will experience drier conditions. Increased rainfall may slow corn and soybean planting in affected areas. 🌧️🌽🌱
Improvement in Panama Canal Transit: Increased rainfall has led to improved transit through the Panama Canal, with average daily vessel crossings rising to 25 from 21 in late January. While still below pre-drought levels, the canal authority expects daily transits to reach 31 by mid-May and 32 by June. This uptick in vessel crossings will help alleviate global trade restrictions, with normal operations expected to resume by the end of this year or early next year. 🚢⛈️
Decline in Ukrainian Grain Output: Ukrainian grain output is forecasted to decline due to heavy rainfall delaying spring planting by 20% compared to last year. Reduced planted wheat acres have led to a projection of 19.9 million metric tons for Ukraine's wheat crop, down 11% from last year and significantly lower than the five-year average. The decline is attributed to farmers turning to more profitable crops amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions. 🇺🇦🌾
Russia's Response to US Military Aid: Russia plans to intensify its attacks on Ukraine in response to new US military aid, following the passage of a $61 billion foreign aid package by the US House. The aid includes economic and military support for Ukraine, with the US set to begin shipping battlefield and air defense support pending Senate approval. Russia has stated that Western-supplied weapons to Ukraine are valid targets, further escalating tensions. 🇷🇺🇺🇸💥
US Consideration of Sanctions Against Chinese Banks: The US is considering sanctions against Chinese banks that support Russia's military, amid concerns that Beijing has been supplying Russia with dual-use goods. These goods, such as plane parts and machines, could aid Russia in rebuilding its military capabilities. US sanctions would target banks facilitating transactions for such goods, potentially cutting them off from the global financial system and causing them to fail. 🇺🇸🇨🇳💰
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US Winter Wheat Ratings Decline: US winter wheat ratings dropped sharply last week, with the crop rated 50% good-excellent nationally, down from 55% the previous week and below analysts' expectations. However, it marked the highest rating for this time of year since 2021. Poor to very poor ratings increased to 16%, up from 13% the prior week. The crop's progress in heading also increased to 17% nationally. 🌾📉
US Corn Planting Ahead of Schedule: US corn planting is progressing ahead of schedule, with 12% of the crop planted nationally compared to 10% on average. Notable progress is seen in states like Kansas, Missouri, and Texas. However, some states like Colorado and Michigan lag behind in planting progress. Soybean planting is also ahead of average, with 8% of the crop planted nationally, led by states like Arkansas and Illinois. 🌽🌱
Brazilian Ethanol Arrives for SAF Production: Brazil's first shipment of sugarcane ethanol has reached the US for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production at LanzaJet's plant in Georgia. LanzaJet opts for Brazilian ethanol due to its lower carbon score, until US corn ethanol improves its environmental credentials. Several Brazilian mills have met SAF production certifications, indicating potential future shifts in feedstock usage. 🇧🇷🛢️🛫
Strong US Corn Shipments: US corn shipments surged last week, with 1.6 million metric tons inspected for export, marking a 73% increase compared to the same week last year. Soybean shipments remained steady, while wheat shipments decreased from the previous week but rose compared to the same week last year. 🚢🌽
ADM CFO to Resign: The former CFO of ADM, Vikram Luthar, has agreed to resign after being suspended in January amid an SEC investigation into the company's accounting practices. Luthar's departure follows a significant decline in ADM's shares and market value. Despite his resignation, he will receive his annual cash performance incentive award for 2023. 🏦📉📉
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Limited Rainfall in US Corn Belt: Rainfall will be limited over the next few days, with return expected later in the week. A significant accumulation of 1-3" of rain forecasted in western Corn Belt, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Michigan during the 5-10 day period, potentially alleviating drought conditions, particularly in Iowa. Below-normal temperatures expected in the eastern Corn Belt this week. 🌧️🌽🌾
Brazilian Dominance in Chinese Market: Brazilian corn and soybeans maintain dominance in the Chinese market. China's soybean imports from the US plummet by 50% in March, while Brazilian soybean imports surge by 81%. Chinese corn imports from Brazil also spike by 72%, with US imports plunging by 78%. High prices and reduced feed demand contribute to the decline in Chinese imports. 🇨🇳🌽🌱
Large Net Short Position Held by Fund Traders: Fund traders maintain historically large net short positions across the grain complex. Net sales of corn and soybeans contracts, along with SRW wheat, persist. The CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders data reveals continued bearish sentiment. 📉💼💵
US House Passes Foreign Aid Package: The US House of Representatives approves a $95 billion foreign aid package, with significant allocations for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. Senate expected to vote on and pass the bill, despite requests to include US border legislation. House also approves bill to ban TikTok unless parent company divests from app. 🏛️💰🤝
Neutral Cattle on Feed Report: Friday's Cattle on Feed report viewed as neutral and somewhat supportive of the cattle market. Cattle on feed slightly lower than anticipated, with placements significantly lower than expected. Marketings also below pre-report estimates, contributing to the report's neutral to somewhat friendly outlook. 🐄📊📈
Flash Sales Reported by USDA: USDA reports multiple flash sales, including corn sales to Mexico and soybean sales to unknown destinations for both the current and upcoming marketing years. The sales contribute to ongoing export activity amidst changing market dynamics. 🌽🚢🌱
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Improvements in Drought Conditions Across Corn Belt: Widespread precipitation alleviates drought conditions in the majority of the Corn Belt, particularly in southern Illinois, western Kentucky, northeast Iowa, and Michigan. However, flash drought conditions emerge in parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. 🌧️🌽🌾
Israel's Drone Strike in Iran: Israeli drones struck targets in western Iran, with Iran claiming the strike was unsuccessful. Despite initial market rallies in crude oil and wheat futures, prices quickly retreated. 🇮🇷🇮🇱🛸
Argentina's Corn Crop Estimate Reduced: USDA lowers its estimate for Argentina's corn crop to 51mmt, citing stunt disease, dry weather, and reduced planted acres. Forecast for the 2024/2025 season predicts further decline to 48mmt with fewer planted acres due to disease and lower prices. 🌽🇦🇷📉
Expansion of E15 Sales Expected: EPA set to announce temporary expansion of E15 sales from June 1 to September 15, following senators' push for increased energy security amid geopolitical tensions. Earlier approval for year-round sales in eight Midwestern states starting April 2025. 🌽⛽🔋
Bitcoin Halving Impact: J.P. Morgan Chase and Deutsche Bank suggest bitcoin halving won't boost prices, but rather prompt unprofitable miners to exit, leading to market consolidation. Regulatory changes and Federal Reserve rate cuts expected to maintain high bitcoin prices. 🪙📉📈
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Biden's Tariff Proposal on Chinese Imports: President Biden suggests increasing tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum imports from 7.5% to 25%, aiming to address trade imbalances and protect domestic industries. 🇨🇳🇺🇸🛢️
Concerns Over Argentina's Corn Crop: The Rosario Grains Exchange likely to further reduce Argentina's corn crop estimate due to a disease spread by leafhoppers, causing significant losses; only 15.3% of the crop harvested so far. 🌽🇦🇷📉
US Ethanol Production Decline: Weekly US ethanol output drops by 7%, while stocks remain relatively stable; gasoline demand shows slight improvement compared to last year. 🇺🇸🌽⛽
Oil Price Decline Despite Geopolitical Tensions: Oil prices fall over 3% despite Iran-Israel tensions, as market awaits potential supply disruptions and Israel's anticipated retaliation against Iran. 🛢️🇮🇷🇮🇱
Decline in Ukraine's Grain Production: Ukraine's grain production in 2023 reaches 60mmt, expected to decline by 13% in 2024 due to decreased planted acres, affecting wheat, corn, and barley output. 🌾🇺🇦📉
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Brazilian Ethanol and SAF Production: LanzaJet in Georgia is launching SAF production using Brazilian sugarcane ethanol, awaiting American corn ethanol improvements for SAF tax credits. 🌱🇧🇷🛫
Rainfall Impact and Weather Models: Recent rain in North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana; conflicting Euro and GFS weather model predictions for Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, with government WPC map maintaining Iowa rainfall but leaving eastern Corn Belt drier. 🌧️🗺️🌽
US Dollar Strength and Safe-Haven Status: US dollar reaches five-month high against euro and highest level against Japanese yen since 1990, attributed to hawkish remarks by Fed Chair Powell and safe-haven bounce due to rising Iran-Israel tensions. 💵📈🌍
Grain Production Decline in Ukraine and Russia: Ukraine's grain harvest forecasted to decline by 10% due to reduced planted acres, with soybean acres rising sharply by 22%; Russia's grain harvest projected to decline by 9% this year. 🌾📉🇺🇦🇷🇺
Interest Rate Outlook and Inflation Concerns: Fed Chair Powell suggests interest rates may need to stay higher for longer due to stubbornly high inflation, impacting Wall Street expectations with first rate cut pushed back from June to September. 💼📉📊
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NOPA March Crush Data: NOPA reports record-high soybean crush of 196.4 million bushels in March, up 5.5% from February and 5.7% from March 2023, with end-of-month soybean oil stocks increasing to 1.9 billion pounds, surpassing pre-report estimates; largest end-of-month supply since May. 🌱📊📈
US Corn Planting Progress: US corn planting slightly ahead of schedule at 6% nationally, vs. 5% on average, with notable progress in IA, MO, NE, MN, while states like CO, MI, ND, OH, PA reported no planting; soybean planting at 3% complete nationally. 🌽🚜📅
US Winter Wheat Ratings: US winter wheat ratings remain strong at 55% good-excellent nationally, best since 2020, with only 13% rated poor to very poor; crop 11% headed nationally, while US spring wheat planting progresses to 7%. 🌾⛅️📉
Anticipated Interest Rate Increase: Major banks project Fed's likelihood to raise interest rates, citing strong US economy and persistent inflation, with UBS estimating rates could climb as high as 6.5% by early next year, potentially leading to equity decline of 10% to 15%. 💰📈🏦
US Grain Shipments: US corn shipments decline to 1.3mmt, soybean shipments at 432,905mt, and wheat shipments surpass pre-report estimates at 551,278mt; USDA reports flash sale of corn to Mexico totaling 165,000mt, with 135,000mt for 2023/2024 and 30,000mt for 2024/2025 marketing year. 🌾🚢📉
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Summit Carbon Solutions Pipeline Challenges: Start date for the world's largest carbon capture-and-storage project delayed until early 2026 due to farmer resistance and regulatory hurdles, leading to rerouting of pipeline 6,300 times and nearly doubling estimated cost to $8 billion; proponents argue pipeline is crucial for ethanol industry's competitiveness amid global carbon reduction efforts. 🛢️🌱💰
Iran's Attack on Israel: Iran launches unprecedented attack on Israel using 350 drones and missiles, intercepted by Israel and western allies; Israel weighs response while Biden administration refrains from backing retaliatory strike to avoid regional conflict, leading to lower crude oil futures. 🚀🇮🇷🇮🇱
Grain Complex Fund Traders Position: Fund traders maintain historically large net short positions across corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat, with net short of 256k contracts in corn and 126k contracts in soybeans; slight buying observed in SRW wheat. 🌾📉💹
Chinese Demand Trends: Chinese soybean imports drop nearly 20% in March to four-year low, attributed to weakened feed demand and consumer consumption, with anticipation of rise in second quarter post-Brazil harvest completion; China may cancel European corn shipments to support domestic prices amid bumper crop and reduced feed demand. 🇨🇳🌱📉
NOPA March Crush Data Expectations: Traders anticipate NOPA members crushed record-high 197.8 million bushels of soybeans in March, up 6.2% from February and 6.4% from March 2023, with soybean oil stocks forecast at 1.8 billion pounds, up 6% from February but down 3.2% from March 2023; NOPA report to be released today. 🌱📈📊
US Soybean Flash Sale: US exporters report fourth flash sale of soybeans since April's start, totaling 124,000mt for 2023/2024 marketing year, bringing total flash sales for April to 654,404mt. 🌱🚢💼
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USDA's Adjustments to Crop Estimates: USDA reduced US soybean export estimate, leading to larger carryout projection for current marketing year, while increasing demand for US corn in feed and ethanol categories; US wheat demand reduced in feed and residual categories, with unchanged estimates for Brazilian corn and soybean production but slight reduction in Argentina's corn crop. 🌾📉📊
Conab's Forecast for Brazilian Crops: Conab predicts Brazilian soybean crop to reach 146.52mmt, down 5.2% from last year, with corn crop expected at 110.96mmt, down about 16%, due to unfavorable conditions in Mato Grosso resulting in fewer acres and lower yields. 🇧🇷🌱📉
Drought Monitor Data for the US: Weekly data shows improved drought conditions in parts of the Corn Belt but worsening conditions in western Kentucky and parts of the High Plains, with drought expanding in northern South Dakota and southeastern North Dakota; overall, drought affecting significant portions of corn, soybean, and wheat regions. 🌧️🌾🇺🇸
China's Corn Purchase Dynamics: China cancels Ukrainian corn purchases, possibly around 300,000mt, to support domestic farmers amid low grain prices and high domestic supplies; cancellations follow similar moves with Australian and US wheat in March, attributed to falling Chinese grain prices and economic challenges. 🇨🇳🌽🛑
US Grain Export Sales Trends: US corn export sales hit marketing year low, declining 66% from the previous week, while soybean sales improved by 57%, and wheat sales were up noticeably; Japan, Mexico, and the Philippines were the largest buyers for the respective grains. 🚢🌾📉
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China's Corn Purchase from Ukraine: China is set to import 600,000mt of corn from Ukraine by the end of April, with an additional 400,000mt slated for May, as part of an expected 22mmt corn export season for Ukraine; China's increased grain imports driven by lower global prices and reduced domestic production. 🌽🇨🇳🇺🇦
Upcoming Storm System in US Corn Belt: Northwestern US Corn Belt braces for significant storm system next week, with eastern areas expecting rainfall while western regions remain dry; Northern Plains and northwest Corn Belt forecasted to experience storms with possible rain and snow, potentially affecting HRW wheat country in Southern Plains. 🌧️🌾❄️
Higher-than-Expected US Consumer Prices: US consumer prices rose 3.5% in March, slightly above economists' forecast of 3.4% and February's 3.2% increase, leading to stock market declines; investors now anticipate fewer rate cuts by the Fed, possibly delaying cuts until July or later amid persistently high inflation. 💲📉📈
USDA's Monthly Crop Production and WASDE Report: USDA to release monthly report featuring old crop data for the US, with new crop balance sheets for corn and soybeans expected in May; trade expects lower Brazilian production estimates and minimal changes to old crop US balance sheets. 🌱📊📉
Iran-Israel Conflict Impact on Oil Prices: Brent crude surpasses $90 a barrel as anticipation mounts for an attack on Israel by Iran or its allies, following heightened tensions in the Middle East; conflict contributes to 16% rise in oil prices since the year's start, with Biden administration pledging support for Israel in case of an attack. ⚔️🛢️💥
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China's Potential Retaliation Against US Grain Imports: US Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack suggests China may favor Brazilian corn and soybeans due to recent legislation limiting US farmland ownership; Chinese imports of US agricultural products decrease by $6 billion in the first quarter, prompting Vilsack to advocate for diversifying export markets away from China. 🌾🇨🇳💼
Commodity Price Surge Indicates Economic Improvement: Global commodity prices, reflected in the S&P GSCI index, surge by 12% this year, outpacing the S&P 500's 9.1% increase; rising prices driven by expectations of increased demand from the US and China, with experts anticipating further climbs as real incomes rise, potentially affecting Federal Reserve's rate decisions. 💹📈💰
USDA's Crop Production and WASDE Report Expectations: USDA's monthly report on Crop Production and WASDE to feature old crop data for the US, with new crop balance sheets for corn and soybeans expected in May; trade anticipates lower Brazilian production estimates and minimal changes to old crop US balance sheets. 🌽📊📉
USDA Reports Flash Sale of Soybeans: US exporters sell 124,000mt of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2023/2024 marketing year; accumulated soybean sales show a 19% decrease compared to the same period last year. 🚢🌱💰
USDA's Discontinuation of Reports Draws Criticism: USDA's decision to cease July cattle inventory report and other data publications due to budget constraints criticized by the National Cattlemen's Beef Association (NCBA) for lack of transparency; elimination of county-level data could pose challenges for grain traders. 📉🚫📊
Treasury Yields Decline Ahead of Inflation Data Release: Treasury yields fall as investors await CPI and PPI data releases; CPI forecasted to show 3.4% increase in March, while PPI expected to indicate 2.2% yearly rise in prices, contributing to uncertainty regarding timing and frequency of potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. 💹📉💲
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Commodity Sector's Strong Week: The Bloomberg Commodity Index records its best performance in nine months, surging by 3.4%, buoyed by gains in coffee, silver, lean hogs, gold, and select energy markets, yet grain prices remain subdued amid broader market rally. 📈☕🥩🌟
Fund Traders' Positions: Net short positions in the corn market increase as funds sell contracts, maintaining historically large bearish stance, while soybeans witness a similar trend with net short positions near record levels; modest buying seen in SRW wheat futures. 📉🌽🌱
Rainfall Outlook for the Corn Belt: Eastern areas of the Corn Belt expected to receive favorable rainfall, benefiting parts of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio, while western regions remain dry; 10-day Euro model predicts rainfall for North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Iowa. 🌧️🌽🗺️
SAF Subsidy Model by Biden Administration: Preliminary model for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) subsidy to be released next month, potentially imposing stricter criteria favoring sustainable agriculture practices for corn used in SAF production, disappointing ethanol industry expecting broader eligibility options. 🌱✈️💰
Argentina's Corn Estimate Reduction: Buenos Aires Grains Exchange revises down corn forecast to 52mmt due to increased prevalence of leafhoppers spreading disease, impacting crop development; soybean crop harvesting underway, projected at 52.5mmt. 🌽🦗🇦🇷
US Job Growth Surges: March sees robust job additions of 303,000, surpassing expectations, while average hourly wages grow at slowest pace since June 2021, indicating moderate wage inflation; rising workforce participation suggests healthy labor market conditions. 💼💵📈
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Commodity Sector's Strong Week: The Bloomberg Commodity Index records its best performance in nine months, surging by 3.4%, buoyed by gains in coffee, silver, lean hogs, gold, and select energy markets, yet grain prices remain subdued amid broader market rally. 📈☕🥩🌟
Fund Traders' Positions: Net short positions in the corn market increase as funds sell contracts, maintaining historically large bearish stance, while soybeans witness a similar trend with net short positions near record levels; modest buying seen in SRW wheat futures. 📉🌽🌱
Rainfall Outlook for the Corn Belt: Eastern areas of the Corn Belt expected to receive favorable rainfall, benefiting parts of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio, while western regions remain dry; 10-day Euro model predicts rainfall for North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Iowa. 🌧️🌽🗺️
SAF Subsidy Model by Biden Administration: Preliminary model for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) subsidy to be released next month, potentially imposing stricter criteria favoring sustainable agriculture practices for corn used in SAF production, disappointing ethanol industry expecting broader eligibility options. 🌱✈️💰
Argentina's Corn Estimate Reduction: Buenos Aires Grains Exchange revises down corn forecast to 52mmt due to increased prevalence of leafhoppers spreading disease, impacting crop development; soybean crop harvesting underway, projected at 52.5mmt. 🌽🦗🇦🇷
US Job Growth Surges: March sees robust job additions of 303,000, surpassing expectations, while average hourly wages grow at slowest pace since June 2021, indicating moderate wage inflation; rising workforce participation suggests healthy labor market conditions. 💼💵📈
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Weekly Drought Monitor Update: Precipitation alleviates drought in Michigan, Ohio, and Indiana while worsening conditions persist in Kentucky; minimal improvements observed in South Dakota, highlighting ongoing drought challenges across key agricultural regions. 🌧️🌱🌾
Spread of Bird Flu: Bird flu outbreak expands into an Ohio dairy herd after transmission from a Texas dairy, prompting USDA confirmation across six states; although minimal risk to humans, the virus's spread raises concerns for livestock industries. 🐦🦠🐄
Rising Oil Prices: WTI crude climbs to $86.59 per barrel, driven by Middle East tensions, Russia-Ukraine conflict, and supply constraints, leading to a surge in gasoline prices to $3.57 per gallon, intensifying inflationary pressures. ⛽️🛢️💰
Rate Cut Speculations: Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts if inflation remains persistent, with Minneapolis Fed President suggesting no cuts needed this year if economic strength persists, highlighting a shift in policy outlook amid heightened inflationary concerns. 🏦💲📉
US Grain Export Sales: Corn export sales decline slightly, while soybean and wheat sales show notable drops, signaling mixed demand dynamics amidst global market uncertainties; flash sale of soybeans to Mexico offers a glimmer of hope amid sluggish export performance. 🌽🌾🚢
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Russian Grain Export Restrictions: Russia halts grain exports from major exporter Aston due to quality issues, marking the second restriction on shipments amid increased complaints from importing countries, impacting global grain markets with US wheat futures rallying. 🇷🇺🌾🚢
Chinese Corn and Wheat Production Forecast: USDA report predicts higher corn production in China for the 2024/2025 season, leading to a decline in corn imports, while wheat production is expected to rise slightly, reflecting China's emphasis on boosting domestic production to meet feed demand. 🇨🇳🌽🌾
US Ethanol Production Increase: Weekly ethanol output rises by 1.8% compared to the previous week and 7% year-on-year, with ethanol stocks slightly up, and implied gasoline demand showing an increase, signaling a modest uptick in ethanol production amid growing fuel demand. 🇺🇸🌽⛽
Bird Flu Outbreak Affects Egg Production: Cal-Maine Foods exterminates 3.6% of its flock due to bird flu outbreak, impacting egg production, as confirmed cases spread across Texas, Oklahoma, Michigan, New Mexico, and Idaho, leading to market volatility in cattle futures. 🐔🦠🥚
Federal Reserve's Rate Cut Outlook: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicates no rush to cut interest rates despite higher-than-expected inflation data, emphasizing the need for further assurance of declining inflation towards the Fed's target, with upcoming job reports shaping future monetary policy decisions. 🏦💲📉
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Corn Futures Decline: Despite USDA's report showing fewer projected corn acres, futures suffer significant losses due to farmer sales and limited short-covering, indicating ongoing market pressure. 🌽📉
Chinese Corn Import Limits: Chinese customs request traders to curb corn imports to address domestic oversupply, resulting in prices hitting a three-year low, while government efforts aim to stabilize prices amidst surplus concerns. 🇨🇳🌽📉
Oil and Gold Market Trends: Oil prices surge to a six-month high amid rising Middle East tensions and OPEC+ production cuts, while gold reaches record highs as a safe-haven asset amidst geopolitical uncertainty, despite the US dollar and Treasury yields rising. 🛢️📈💰
Investor Sentiment on Rate Cuts: Strong economic data prompts investor pessimism about potential rate cuts, with swap markets projecting fewer reductions than expected by the Fed, signaling a shift in expectations amid improving economic indicators. 📊💼💰
US-China Relations: President Biden's call with President Xi Jinping addresses key bilateral issues and tensions surrounding Taiwan, aiming to stabilize relations, as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's upcoming visit to China seeks to further dialogue and address escalating concerns. 🇺🇸🤝🇨🇳
Corn Futures Decline: Despite USDA's report showing fewer projected corn acres, futures suffer significant losses due to farmer sales and limited short-covering, indicating ongoing market pressure. 🌽📉
Chinese Corn Import Limits: Chinese customs request traders to curb corn imports to address domestic oversupply, resulting in prices hitting a three-year low, while government efforts aim to stabilize prices amidst surplus concerns. 🇨🇳🌽📉
Oil and Gold Market Trends: Oil prices surge to a six-month high amid rising Middle East tensions and OPEC+ production cuts, while gold reaches record highs as a safe-haven asset amidst geopolitical uncertainty, despite the US dollar and Treasury yields rising. 🛢️📈💰
Investor Sentiment on Rate Cuts: Strong economic data prompts investor pessimism about potential rate cuts, with swap markets projecting fewer reductions than expected by the Fed, signaling a shift in expectations amid improving economic indicators. 📊💼💰
US-China Relations: President Biden's call with President Xi Jinping addresses key bilateral issues and tensions surrounding Taiwan, aiming to stabilize relations, as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's upcoming visit to China seeks to further dialogue and address escalating concerns. 🇺🇸🤝🇨🇳
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USDA released its first Crop Progress report of the year on Monday. US corn planting was 2% complete through Sunday. Progress was noted in only Illinois, Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, and Texas. USDA did not release a soybean planting statistic. The US winter wheat crop was rated 56% good-excellent, up from late November national ratings of 50% good-excellent. This was the strongest seasonal rating since 2019.
A person in Texas has been diagnosed with the bird flu. The infected individual worked at a dairy farm where some cows tested positive for the H5N1 strain of bird flu last week. It's unknown if the person contracted the disease from dead birds on the farm or from a dairy cow. Even though officials insisted that food supplies were safe, live and feeder cattle futures plunged on Monday. Feeder cattle futures were down as much as $7.50/cwt, while live cattle futures saw losses reach $6.10/cwt. This is the second case of bird flu in an individual in the US. It's believed that there is little risk to the general public.
Export prices for Russian wheat continue to rise. Export prices increased for the third consecutive week last week. The rise was attributed to dryer than normal conditions for this season's wheat crop. According to Sovecon, Russia exported 840,000mt of wheat last week, down 26% from the previous week. The consultancy lowered its estimate for wheat exports in March by 2% to 4.9mmt, which is still a record for the month.
Brazil's soybean harvest continues to progress. According to well-followed private group AgRural, 74% of Brazil's soybean crop had been harvested as of last Thursday. At this time last year, 76% of the crop had been harvested. Recent rainfall has slowed harvest and also impacted grain quality in some regions. AgRural also reported that hot and dry conditions in some areas are causing concern for Brazil's second corn crop.
US corn shipments increased last week. USDA reported that corn shipments during the week ending March 28 surpassed pre-report estimates at 1.4mmt (56mil bushels). The print was up 14% from the previous week and up 30% compared to the same week last year. Soybean shipments fell below pre-report estimates at 414,484mt (15mil bushels). The print declined 47% vs. the prior week and was down 18% compared to the same week last year. Wheat shipments exceeded pre-report estimates at 498,989mt (18mil bushels). The print was +15% from the previous week and +196% vs. the same week last year.
WTI crude oil traded to fresh 5-month highs on Monday. Reports of an Israeli missile strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, were partly responsible for the price surge. WTI rose 0.7% to close at $83.71 per barrel, its highest close since October. The reduction in oil production by OPEC+, at least until the second quarter, has supported prices. In the next few months, Mexico's state-run oil company plans to halt some crude exports, which could further tighten global supply. Expectations of strong global demand have also contributed to higher oil prices. Year-to-date, WTI is up almost 18%.
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Monday morning sees a mixed sentiment in the grain markets as US farmers announce intentions to plant fewer corn acres but increase soybean plantings. USDA's Prospective Plantings report reveals a significant decline in total principal crop acres, triggering market reactions. US corn, soybean, and wheat stocks show notable increases compared to last year, with corn stocks slightly below expectations. Despite improved drought conditions in some regions, concerns persist in areas experiencing dry spells. 🌧️📉🌾
In financial markets, the S&P 500 hits record highs, reflecting robust economic performance as GDP growth surpasses expectations. The stock market's bullish trend continues, with consecutive monthly gains across major indexes. 📊📈💼
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Bloomberg's report highlights soybeans' potential ascent to America's top crop, fueled by soaring demand for soybean oil driven by President Biden's green energy agenda. This shift threatens corn's dominance as EV adoption reduces ethanol demand. Today's USDA Prospective Plantings report unveils projections of decreased corn acreage and increased soybean acreage, alongside larger stockpiles of corn, soybeans, and wheat. 📊🌽📈
Agroconsult raises its estimate for Brazil's soybean production to 156.5mmt, citing increased planted acres. However, concerns arise over China's soybean import data accuracy, with discrepancies between Chinese and US/Brazilian figures. Meanwhile, US ethanol production edges up slightly, indicating modest growth amidst fluctuating gasoline demand. 🇧🇷🌾📉
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The collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore disrupts shipping routes, rerouting thousands of trucks daily and increasing shipping costs. This setback, coupled with recent rainfall across the US Corn Belt, brings relief to drought-plagued regions but raises concerns for wheat growers amidst below-freezing temperatures. Meanwhile, anticipation builds for the USDA's Prospective Plantings report, projecting a decline in US corn acreage and a rise in soybean acreage, alongside larger stockpiles. 🌉🚛🌽
Russian wheat export prices surge as global demand rises, supported by projected record-setting exports and increased crop yields. However, the Federal Reserve records its largest operating loss ever in 2023, driven by increased interest expenses amidst rising rates, highlighting the complexities of monetary policy in a shifting economic landscape. 💰🌾📉
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The US and UK have leveled accusations against Chinese government-linked hackers for launching malicious cyberattacks targeting political officials and voters' records. The unsealing of indictments and subsequent sanctions signals heightened tensions, likely straining China's already tense relations with both nations. 🇨🇳💻🌐
Anticipation brews for the USDA's annual Prospective Plantings report, with traders forecasting a decline in US corn acreage but a significant rise in soybean acreage. Despite larger stockpiles of corn, soybeans, and wheat, the market awaits Thursday's release for concrete insights into planting intentions. 🌱📈🌽
Brazil's soybean harvest progresses steadily, although concerns persist over a lack of rainfall, potentially impacting yields. Meanwhile, China's increasing investments in gold amid economic uncertainties, evidenced by heightened central bank purchases and surging consumer demand, reflect a trend toward secure assets amidst global economic volatility. 🌾🚜🇧🇷
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0:00 Intro
0:39 Weekend Rain/Snow Event
2:21 "The Funds"
6:11 Black Sea Tensions
7:22 Reduced Brazil Soybean Estimate
8:24 Biofuel Lobby Pushed Govt
9:48 Flash Sale to Mexico
10:24 Cattle on Feed Update
Recent rainfall and snowfall offered relief to portions of the drought-stricken Corn Belt, particularly in Iowa and Minnesota, although challenges persist. Fund traders have modestly reduced their net short positions in the corn market, while soybean market dynamics remain influenced by speculative activity. 🌧️🌨️📉
In Ukraine, Russia's aggressive aerial assault on critical infrastructure, including power facilities, has intensified geopolitical tensions, resulting in widespread damage and power outages. Meanwhile, USDA's Brazil attaché office revised down its soybean crop estimate, citing lower yield expectations compared to official forecasts. 🇺🇦🚀🌱
Calls for increased sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production have grown louder, with biofuel and farm organizations urging the Biden administration to adopt the GREET model for calculating SAF tax credits. However, delays in decision-making, fueled by concerns over agricultural land use and climate considerations, have stalled progress. Advocates emphasize the importance of avoiding changes that could negatively impact the ethanol industry. 🛢️🌱📈
USDA reported a flash sale of corn to Mexico, signaling continued demand for US grain exports. However, the latest Cattle on Feed report, with placements surpassing expectations, weighed on the cattle market, viewed as bearish due to higher-than-anticipated numbers. 🌽🐄📉
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The Biden administration finalizes rule to accelerate transition to zero-emission vehicles 🚗⚡, requiring automakers to increase EV sales and reduce carbon emissions from gas-powered cars between 2027 and 2032. Options provided for automakers to meet targets, raising concerns from ethanol and oil industries about affordability and availability of gas-powered vehicles.
USDA to release prospective plantings report 🌱 next week. AgMarket's projections are showing a decline in corn acres, an increase in soybean acres, and a significant decline in wheat acres due to pricing and USDA's acreage adjustments.
US corn export sales decline 🌽, while soybean sales increase, with notable cancellations from China and other countries impacting wheat sales.
Louis Dreyfus reports over $1 billion in profit for 2023, reflecting market volatility and investments in new assets, including domestic ethanol operations.
Weekly drought monitor data shows mostly unchanged conditions in the Corn Belt, with slight improvements in some areas, while drought persists across the High Plains.
Cattle on feed report expected later today, with projections indicating increases in placements due to weather disruptions, to be released at 2:00 p.m. CST. 📊🌧️🐄
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Brazil dominates China's corn and soybean market 🇧🇷🌽🌱, with imports surging. Brazilian corn imports skyrocketed by 178%, accounting for 66% of China's total, while US imports plummeted by 67% to 12%. Similarly, Brazilian soybean imports soared 211%, making up 53% of China's total, while US imports fell 51% to 38%.
Excessive rainfall threatens Argentine crop yields 🇦🇷🌧️, potentially damaging corn and soybean crops. Despite alleviating drought in some areas, oversaturation poses risks to harvests, with estimates of soybean production at 50 million tons and corn at 57 million tons likely impacted.
USDA reports flash sale of soybeans 🛒, with 120,000mt sold for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
US ethanol production rises 📈, reaching 1.05 million barrels last week, up 2.1% from the previous week and 3.2% year-over-year. Stocks remain stable, with gasoline demand showing mixed trends.
Federal Reserve maintains rates and monetary outlook 🏦, signaling three rate cuts this year despite inflation uptick. Market response is positive, with S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq all reaching new highs. Probability of rate cuts starting in June rises to 75%. 📉📈🇺🇸
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US agriculture groups seek millions in aid to regain global markets 🌎🌾. Last year, USDA launched a $1.3 billion program aiming to expand US crop markets over five years, focusing on southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. Applications for aid exceeded $900 million this round. Brazil and Russia have surpassed the US in soybean, corn, and wheat exports.
Rain forecast across US Corn Belt offers relief 🌧️. Prolonged drought affects Missouri, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, and parts of other states. Widespread precipitation expected Sunday to Tuesday could bring up to three inches of rain, though weather forecasts may change rapidly.
Brazilian soybean export outlook improves 🇧🇷🌱. Anec projects March soybean exports at 14 million tons, up 2.1%, but soymeal exports decrease. Corn exports dip 8.2%, while wheat exports rise nearly 3%.
EU plans tariffs on Russian and Belarusian grain imports 🇪🇺🌾, symbolically responding to farmer demands amid Green Deal rules. Russian imports minimal compared to Ukrainian imports. EU imports 1.8 million tons of Russian grain, 19.1 million from Ukraine. Tariffs unlikely to impact trade or prices significantly.
Federal Reserve likely to maintain current policy outlook 🏦. Expected to reaffirm three rate cuts this year, with no immediate reduction. Investors await updated dot plot, revealing future rate projections. S&P 500 sets new record high, with Wall Street monitoring Fed's policy announcement for inflation concerns' impact on rate cut expectations. 📈💵
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Widespread rainfall forecasts bring hope to drought-stricken regions across the US Corn Belt, potentially alleviating dry conditions in Iowa, Minnesota, and other key agricultural areas. Meanwhile, Brazil's soybean harvest advances steadily, but concerns loom over hot, dry weather impacting the second corn crop. 🇺🇸🇧🇷
Russian wheat export prices ticked up as spring planting accelerates amid insufficient precipitation, raising worries for future crop yields. In the US, corn shipments surged, while soybean shipments softened, reflecting ongoing dynamics in global grain trade. 🌾🚢
Oil prices surged to four-month highs, buoyed by unexpected increases in Chinese industrial activity and geopolitical tensions fueled by Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries. Concerns over a potential supply deficit, coupled with bullish trends in gasoline futures, contributed to the rally in crude prices. 🛢️⛽💰
US Treasury yields edged higher ahead of the Federal Reserve's March meeting, with investors awaiting insights into the central bank's stance on interest rates. Expectations for rate cuts later this year persist amid economic uncertainties, with markets closely monitoring the Fed's guidance for future monetary policy decisions. 💵📈🏦
Stay informed about weather developments, harvest progress, commodity market shifts, and geopolitical tensions to navigate evolving agricultural and financial landscapes effectively. Monitor forecasts, trade data, and central bank announcements for timely insights into market trends and potential investment opportunities. 🌐📊🔍
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Fund traders made notable adjustments in commodity markets, reducing their net short position in corn while maintaining a significant position in soybeans, according to the latest CFTC data. Meanwhile, the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported a record soybean crush for February, surpassing expectations and contributing to increased soybean oil stocks. 📉🌽📈
Former President Trump's rhetoric on trade escalated over the weekend, as he threatened to impose 100% tariffs on cars built by Chinese companies in Mexico if reelected. This follows earlier threats of tariffs on Chinese goods, highlighting ongoing tensions in global trade dynamics. 🚗🇨🇳
USDA reported a flash sale of corn to unknown destinations, adding to robust export activity in the commodity. However, geopolitical tensions escalated with reports of a Russian drone attack damaging agribusinesses in Odesa, Ukraine, underscoring the broader impact of regional conflicts on agricultural operations. 🌐💥
Stay informed about market fluctuations, trade developments, and geopolitical risks as they influence investment strategies and commodity prices. Monitor CFTC data, industry reports, and geopolitical news to navigate evolving market conditions effectively. 📊🌍💡
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Soybean futures underwent a downside reversal after early gains on Thursday, with the most traded May24 contract peaking near $12.17 per bushel before succumbing to selling pressure. The day ended with a lower close, reflecting uncertainties in the market amidst debates over Brazil's soybean crop size, especially given the significant disparity between USDA and CONAB estimates. 🌾💹
In the US, the latest weekly drought monitor data from USDA highlighted above-average temperatures across the Corn Belt, leading to improved drought conditions in some regions but expansion in others. The majority of the High Plains also experienced warm temperatures, impacting drought conditions. Check out the USDA's drought report for detailed insights. 🌱🌧️
Russia's grain production is forecasted to rise in the upcoming season, with wheat production estimated to reach 93 million tons, contributing to a total grain production of 147 million tons. This projection reflects a 2.1% increase from the current season's forecast, suggesting continued significance in global grain markets. 🇷🇺🌾
Meanwhile, China's recent cancellation and postponement of Australian wheat purchases, totaling about one million tons, come amidst a backdrop of global market dynamics influenced by Russia's increased wheat exports. The cancellations indicate a strategic move by China to leverage market conditions for more favorable pricing. 🇨🇳🌾
US export sales saw mixed results, with improved corn sales but a decline in soybean sales compared to the previous week. Notably, a flash sale of corn to Mexico was reported, underscoring ongoing trade dynamics. Additionally, February's producer-price index reflected significant increases, signaling ongoing inflationary pressures that may impact the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting decisions. 💼📈
Stay informed about the evolving landscape of agricultural markets, global trade dynamics, and economic indicators as they continue to shape investment strategies and market sentiment. 🌍💡
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0:00 Dryness in Brazil
2:29 Cheap Russian Wheat
5:26 Ethanol Production Update
6:52 Soybean Crush Update
8:29 More ADM Problems
Key Brazilian 🇧🇷 corn-growing regions, particularly in southern Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul, are facing substantial moisture deficits due to limited rainfall since February 1st. While some relief is forecasted, additional rains will be crucial during April and May to mitigate the deficits. See maps below for detailed regional insights. 🗺️☔
Meanwhile, a surplus of Russian 🇷🇺 wheat has flooded the global market, driving down prices significantly. Russia's record wheat exports, expected to reach 51 million tons this season, have led to the lowest prices for Russian wheat exports since August 2020. Consequently, US 🇺🇸 and European 🇪🇺 wheat prices have plummeted to their lowest levels in three and a half years, with global prices likely to remain under pressure due to sizable crops in the US and Russia. 📉🌾
In the US, ethanol production declined last week, with weekly output down 3.1% compared to the previous week and 1.4% lower than the same week last year. However, ethanol stocks remained relatively stable, with implied gasoline demand showing a marginal increase compared to the previous week. ⛽📉
On Friday, NOPA will release February crush data, with traders estimating a crush of 178.06 million bushels of soybeans, marking a slight decrease from January but a notable increase from February 2023. Additionally, soybean oil stocks are forecasted to be at their highest since June, reflecting a 5.6% increase from January but a 12.1% decrease from February 2023. 🌱📊
Amid challenges in its nutrition segment, ADM is working to rebuild, following an internal investigation into accounting practices that caused shares to plummet. Despite spending billions to expand its nutrition sector, ADM saw a 36% decline in operating profit in 2023. While the company is taking aggressive steps to repair the sector, investor confidence remains uncertain. 💼💡
Stay tuned for updates on weather patterns, global market dynamics, and corporate strategies as these factors continue to shape agricultural and economic landscapes worldwide. 🌍🌱📉
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0:00 Row Crop Rally
3:13 CONAB Cuts Estimates
6:52 Brazilian Farmers are Undersold
8:08 Panama Canal Update
9:22 Inflation Progress Stalls
Soybean futures saw a significant rally, marking their best close in a month, fueled by lower-than-expected Brazilian production estimates from CONAB and short-covering activities. The May24 contract gained nearly 17 cents, closing at $11.96 per bushel. Conversely, the May24 corn contract closed unchanged, matching its best close since mid-February.
Brazil's crop production estimates were revised downward by CONAB, citing unfavorable weather conditions. Soybean production forecasts were lowered by almost 2% to 146.9 million metric tons (mmt), while total corn production estimates decreased by nearly 1% to 112.8 mmt. The reduction in corn production was attributed to decreased planting acreage.
Despite Brazilian soybean sales reaching 36.6% of estimated production, lagging behind the historical average, farmers are holding onto crops in anticipation of price rebounds. Safras and Mercado projected this season's soybean crop to reach 149.1 mmt.
In other news, the Panama Canal Authority announced a 12% increase in daily transits later this month, aiming to alleviate restrictions implemented due to low water levels caused by reduced rainfall. However, transit through larger Neopanamax locks will remain restricted.
Meanwhile, February's inflation rose faster than expected, with a 0.4% increase for the month and a 3.2% rise compared to last year. Energy costs contributed significantly to the uptick, with food costs remaining flat, shelter costs rising, and gasoline prices surging.
Stay tuned for evolving market trends, as global production estimates and inflationary pressures continue to influence agricultural and economic landscapes. 🌾📉📊
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Former President Donald Trump announced plans to reinstate tariffs on foreign goods if reelected, citing a strategy to regain leverage for the US. Trump's previous administration implemented tariffs on several countries, a move continued under the Biden administration, with most tariffs on China remaining in effect. Critics argue tariffs raise import costs and are ineffective.
Meanwhile, bankruptcies are on the rise in Brazil's agriculture sector due to declining corn and soybean prices from bumper crops. Last year saw a notable increase in bankruptcies and applications for bankruptcy protection, signaling financial strain among Brazilian farmers and agricultural investment funds.
In the US, soybean shipments declined last week, while corn and wheat shipments saw mixed trends. Notably, there were further "flash cancellations" of US SRW wheat to China, marking the third cancellation in a week, indicating shifting trade dynamics.
Brazil's soybean harvest pace has slowed due to recent rainfall, with 55% of the crop harvested as of last Thursday. Additionally, planting progress for Brazil's second corn crop is ahead of last year, reaching 93%.
Stay tuned for updates on trade policies, agricultural market dynamics, and global harvest progress as these factors continue to shape the agricultural landscape. 🌾📉💼
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Friday's USDA report brought few surprises, with old crop US balance sheets for corn and soybeans remaining unchanged, while the US wheat export projection saw a 15 million bushel cut. A small downward revision to Brazil's soybean crop estimate was made, although it remains above consensus. Notably, the report highlighted upward demand revisions for Chinese soybeans across multiple marketing years, with an upward revision to this year's Chinese soybean import forecast.
In market movements, fund traders maintain historically large net short positions across the corn and soybean complex, with net buying observed for corn contracts but continued selling for soybeans and SRW wheat contracts. Additionally, USDA reported another "flash cancellation" of US SRW wheat to China, marking the second cancellation in two days.
On the global front, the United Nations' food price index has reached its lowest level since February 2021, attributed to expectations of a significant South American corn crop and competitive prices from Ukraine. Vegetable oil prices also declined due to abundant supplies from South America, reflecting in a 22.3% year-over-year drop in the agency's cereal index.
Despite market fluctuations, job growth exceeded expectations last month, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 275,000, surpassing economists' projections. However, revisions to December and January job growth figures were downward, with the unemployment rate increasing slightly to 3.9% in February.
As agricultural and economic landscapes continue to evolve, stay informed with updates on market trends and their broader implications. 🔄🌱💼
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As farmers navigate lower grain prices and rising input costs, many are turning to solar development as a lucrative alternative revenue stream. With farmer income projected to decline by 26% this year, leasing land to solar developers offers a promising solution to offset financial pressures. The surge in solar adoption is further fueled by President Joe Biden's Inflation Reduction Act, which provides tax incentives for solar projects. Despite the potential benefits, concerns loom regarding the accelerated loss of farmland, with the US witnessing a significant decrease of 20 million acres of agricultural land between 2017 and 2022.
Today marks the release of the USDA's monthly Crop Production and WASDE report, anticipated to shed light on the latest agricultural outlook. While no major changes are expected in the US balance sheets, traders await potential revisions, especially concerning Brazilian soybean production estimates, which may see a substantial reduction compared to previous forecasts.
In market developments, a "flash cancellation" of US corn to China was reported on Thursday, impacting the wheat market sentiment. Despite this, US soybean export sales showed improvement, with China emerging as the largest buyer for the week. However, concerns persist over cancellations of previous soybean purchases by unknown destinations. Net corn sales remained steady, with Japan leading in purchases, while net wheat sales witnessed a decline, notably to the Philippines.
The USDA's weekly drought monitor highlighted mixed conditions across key agricultural regions, with improvements seen in parts of the Midwest but exacerbations in others, particularly in Iowa and parts of the High Plains. These dynamics continue to influence market sentiments amidst evolving weather patterns.
Furthermore, the dollar weakened on Thursday as markets speculated on potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with Chair Jerome Powell hinting at a shift in monetary policy. Meanwhile, labor market data suggested ongoing stabilization, with the Labor Department set to release February's employment report today, providing further insights into economic trends.
Stay tuned for updates on agricultural market trends and their broader economic implications. 🔄🌾💼
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Wheat futures plunged to their lowest level in over three years on Wednesday, with SRW futures reaching a nadir near $5.20 per bushel, driven by concerns over oversupply and potential cancellations of US SRW wheat purchases by China. The market also grappled with the persistent pressure of competitively priced wheat from Russia, further dampening global prices. Amidst this backdrop, trade chatter highlighted the volatility and uncertainty in wheat markets. 🌾💔
In a move towards renewable energy, Bunge Global and Chevron have joined forces to establish Bunge Chevron Ag Renewables LLC, focusing on renewable fuel feedstocks. The partnership aims to construct an oilseed processing facility in Louisiana, near the Gulf Coast, capable of processing soybeans and softseeds like winter canola. Anticipated to commence operations in 2026, the facility will also contribute to the feed and protein sectors by producing meal products. 🌱⚡🛢️
Meanwhile, US ethanol production witnessed a decline last week, reflecting a weekly output of 1.06 million barrels, down 2% from the previous week but up 5.4% compared to the same period last year. Despite marginal increases in ethanol stocks and gasoline demand, the sector faces challenges amid fluctuating market dynamics and regulatory uncertainties. 🇺🇸⛽
In South America, Argentina braces for reduced precipitation this fall, following the waning of El Nino. The shift in weather patterns raises concerns over drier conditions, potentially impacting the country's soybean and corn crops. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange forecasts Argentina's soybean crop at 52.5 million tons and the corn crop at 56.5 million tons amidst evolving climate conditions. 🌧️🇦🇷🌽
Amidst inflation concerns, the Federal Reserve maintains its stance on interest rate cuts later this year, despite robust inflation and hiring data in January. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasizes the need for more evidence of easing inflation before implementing rate cuts, despite previous plans for multiple cuts in 2024. The market awaits further insights into the Fed's policy decisions amidst evolving economic indicators. 📈💵🏦
Stay tuned for updates on shifting market trends and their impact on global economies. 🔄🌍💼
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Chevron, the second-largest US oil producer, has closed two biodiesel plants located in Ralston, IA, and Madison, WI, citing deteriorating economics for renewable fuels. With a combined capacity of processing 50 million gallons of biodiesel annually, these closures highlight challenges facing the renewable fuels sector, including declining values of renewable credits and increased supplies, leading to decreased biodiesel prices. Interestingly, this decision comes merely two years after Chevron's acquisition of biodiesel maker Renewable Energy Group for $3.15 billion, signaling a shift in strategic focus amidst evolving market dynamics. 🔄📉
In other agricultural news, USDA is set to release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE report on Friday, with traders anticipating minor demand revisions but a substantial reduction in the Brazilian soybean production estimate. Meanwhile, Australian wheat production is projected to rebound by 9% to 28.4 million tons in the 2024/2025 season, following challenges in the previous season due to adverse weather conditions. Despite an increase in production, Australian grain exports may decline as domestic reserves are replenished and grain is directed towards animal feed. 🌾📉
In the financial markets, both gold and Bitcoin reached significant milestones this week. Gold surged to a fresh all-time high, reaching $2,141.79 an ounce, driven by geopolitical concerns, expectations of monetary easing, and rising risk in the stock market. Conversely, Bitcoin set a new all-time high, briefly surpassing $68,800, propelled by the recent approval of bitcoin ETFs by the SEC and anticipation surrounding the upcoming halving in April, which is expected to limit the cryptocurrency's supply. 📈💰💡
Stay tuned for updates on shifting market dynamics and their impact on commodities and digital assets. 📊🌍💼
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In recent weeks, China has ramped up its grain purchases, acquiring over 1.2 million tons of corn, sorghum, and barley from various sources including the US and Ukraine. These purchases, comprising more than 20 cargoes, reflect China's efforts to bolster its grain reserves amidst sluggish global prices and to support domestic prices by stockpiling ahead of the planting season.
Additionally, China has allocated significant funds, totaling $19.54 billion, to expand its grain and oilseed stockpiles, marking an 8.1% increase from the previous year. This investment underscores China's commitment to ensuring food security and increasing domestic production to meet the needs of its vast population.
Meanwhile, USDA reported multiple flash sales on Monday, including corn sales to Taiwan and soybean cake and meal sales to unknown destinations, indicating continued demand for US agricultural products in global markets.
Despite these developments, US soybean shipments declined last week, while Brazil's soybean harvest is progressing steadily, with 48% of the crop already harvested according to AgRural. Moreover, Brazil's second corn crop planting is advancing rapidly, with 86% planted compared to 70% during the same period last year.
In the renewable energy sector, Valero, the nation's second-largest ethanol producer, has partnered with Summit Carbon Solutions to transport carbon from eight of its facilities through Summit's proposed pipeline. This partnership aims to facilitate carbon transportation across the Corn Belt, with the pipeline expected to carry 18.5 million metric tons of carbon annually and involve more than half of the US corn ethanol industry.
Stay tuned as global grain markets evolve amidst changing demand dynamics and strategic investments aimed at enhancing food security and sustainability. 🌾📈🌍
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Spring crop insurance prices for Dec24 corn and Nov24 soybeans have been set, reflecting significant declines compared to the previous year. The average price for Dec24 corn in February was $4.66 per bushel, down sharply from last year's $5.91, while the Nov24 soybean contract averaged $11.55 per bushel, a notable decrease from last year's $13.76. These lower insurance levels pose challenges for many US row crop operations, as they now fall below the cost of production, unlike last year's levels that mostly exceeded production costs.
Meanwhile, the Biden administration's delay in climate modeling for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) feedstocks has raised concerns within the ethanol industry. The administration's decision to revise the climate modeling, particularly regarding verification methods for climate-smart agriculture practices, may impact the industry's eligibility for SAF tax credits. As a result, alternative methods such as solar energy and sustainable farming may need to be adopted to qualify.
In the commodities market, fund traders maintain a historically large net short position across the corn and soybean complex. Weekly Commitment of Traders data released by the CFTC shows "the funds" holding a net short of 288k contracts in corn and 151k contracts in soybeans, reflecting significant bearish sentiment. However, fund traders were net buyers of 41k contracts of corn during the week ending February 27.
Brazil's soybean forecast witnessed opposing revisions last week, with StoneX raising its estimate to 151.5 million tons while AgResource significantly reduced its projection to 143.92 million tons. The adjustments were influenced by recent weather patterns and yield fluctuations. Both groups also lowered their outlook for Brazil's corn crop, citing various factors impacting production.
In the oil market, OPEC+ extended its voluntary oil supply cuts until the end of June, aiming to stabilize prices and prevent a global surplus. These measures, coupled with ongoing supply reductions, reflect efforts to counteract increased production from rivals like US shale drillers and maintain international oil prices around $80 a barrel.
Stay informed on evolving market dynamics and geopolitical developments as stakeholders navigate challenges and opportunities in the agricultural and energy sectors. 🌱📉💼
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Corn futures have surged over the past four days, with the May24 contract climbing from a low near $4.09/bu on Monday to a peak at $4.32/bu on Thursday. The rally comes as hedge pressure likely diminishes following the pricing or rolling of March basis contracts. Speculation surrounding potential Chinese corn purchases from the US Pacific Northwest further fueled market chatter, contributing to the upward momentum. Fund traders, who were estimated to hold a net short of 330k contracts, may have also influenced the market dynamics.
While corn futures exhibit strength, US soybean export sales remain lackluster, with net sales down 30% from the prior 4-week average. Despite notable purchases from China, cancellations from unknown destinations offset some of the gains. Conversely, net corn sales saw an increase of 32% from the previous week, with Mexico emerging as the largest buyer. Wheat sales also showed improvement, driven by substantial purchases from Japan.
In other developments, US ethanol production and consumption witnessed a rise in 2023, reaching their highest levels since 2019. The growing popularity of E15 and E85 sales, coupled with an increased blend rate, contributed to this uptrend. Meanwhile, drought conditions persist across key agricultural regions, particularly in the Corn Belt and high plains, exacerbating concerns about crop yields.
Geopolitically, Russia's reluctance to renew the Black Sea grain deal raises tensions, with Ukraine wary of potential disruptions to its grain export routes. Additionally, China's rapid expansion of space-based military capabilities, as reported by the US Space Command, underscores growing concerns about global security dynamics.
Amidst these developments, the Federal Reserve observes a continued easing of inflation, as reflected in the personal consumption expenditures price index. While expectations of rate cuts loom, recent inflation data, including a 2.4% yearly increase in PCE, present uncertainties regarding the timing of monetary policy adjustments.
Stay informed on the latest market trends and geopolitical shifts shaping the agricultural and financial landscapes, as stakeholders navigate evolving challenges and opportunities. 🌾📉🚀
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Discover how Southwest Airlines and LanzaJet are collaborating to construct a cutting-edge US facility dedicated to producing Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) from ethanol. With Southwest's $30 million investment, the facility aims to be operational within the next three to four years, contributing to LanzaJet's ambitious goal of producing one billion gallons of SAF annually by 2030.
Meanwhile, IFM Investors, an Australian airport investor, plans to inject over $651 million into SAF production in Australia, with a vision to increase the percentage of SAF in Australia's jet fuel consumption to 10% by 2030. This significant investment aligns with global efforts to reduce aviation emissions, supporting the Australian government's target of producing 3.7 billion gallons of SAF by 2050.
Stay updated on US ethanol production trends, recent declines notwithstanding, and ongoing adjustments in Brazil's soybean crop estimates due to adverse weather conditions affecting both northern and southern regions.
In other news, New York's legal action against JBS SA underscores the growing scrutiny of environmental commitments within the meatpacking industry, while lawmakers' agreement to avert a government shutdown provides temporary relief, funding government agencies until March 8 and March 22.
Keep abreast of these developments shaping the aviation industry, agricultural sector, and governmental policies, as stakeholders navigate toward a more sustainable and resilient future. ✈️🌱🏢
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0:00 China Buys Cheap Ukraine Corn
3:21 Warm Temps Across Corn Belt
6:11 Soybean Flash Sale
7:11 European Farmers Aren't Happy
8:35 Home Prices Remain High
Explore the latest market dynamics as 🇨🇳 China makes significant corn purchases from 🇺🇦 Ukraine for livestock feed, overcoming transport disruptions caused by 🇷🇺 Russia's exit from the Black Sea grain deal. Delve into the estimated purchase volume and its impact on global grain trade.
Experience the unusual warmth that shattered temperature records across the 🇺🇸 United States earlier this week, followed by a sudden chill from a frigid high-pressure system in the Midwest. Learn about the forecasted return of record warmth this weekend, with projections suggesting one of the warmest winters and expectations for 2024 as the hottest year yet.
Stay informed on USDA's flash sale of soybeans to unknown destinations, contributing to recent sales, and Poland's considerations to widen bans on Ukrainian food imports amidst negotiations.
Meanwhile, discover the housing market's resilience as home prices hit all-time highs in December, driven by a severe shortage of homes for sale despite slowing demand due to high-interest rates. Gain insights into experts' forecasts for continued price increases and buyer eagerness as mortgage rates decline.
Stay updated on these key developments shaping global trade, weather patterns, and the housing market. 🏡🌾📈
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🌽 The corn market saw an upside reversal on Monday, with the May24 contract bouncing from lows near $4.09/bu to a 13-cent rally and higher daily close. 📈 Huge trading volumes were observed, possibly due to US farmers pricing most of their March basis contracts, alleviating some hedge pressure. 💰 Fund traders were estimated to be buyers of 5k contracts of corn on the day.
🌱 Estimates for Brazil's soybean crop continue to shrink, with AgRural reducing its forecast to 147.7 million tons due to hot and dry weather. 🇧🇷 As of last Thursday, 40% of Brazil's soybeans had been harvested. Additionally, 73% of Brazil's second corn crop had been planted.
🌾 Russian wheat prices hit a three-year low, dropping to their lowest level since 2020. 🇷🇺 Analysts suggest further reductions to compete with European wheat. Russia exported 870,000 million tons of wheat last week, with Sovecon increasing its estimate for this season's wheat crop to 93.6 million tons.
🚢 US soybean shipments declined, with 974,977mt inspected for export, down 25% from the previous week. 🌾 Corn shipments increased by 18%, while wheat shipments rose by 15% compared to the previous week.
💰 Bitcoin surged to its highest level in over two years on Monday, surpassing $54,000. 🪙 Interest in cryptocurrency has risen as traders position themselves ahead of Bitcoin's halving in late April.
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Attention traders! Large money managers are setting record short positions in the corn market, indicating significant bearish sentiment. Explore the implications of this trend and its potential impact on market dynamics. Get insights into recent soybean export sales, which plummeted to a marketing-year low, raising concerns about demand.
In geopolitical news, the Biden administration imposes over 500 new sanctions on Russia, targeting individuals, financial sectors, and entities supporting Russia's military efforts in Ukraine. Learn about the latest developments in Brazil, where a fire at an agricultural export terminal disrupts operations, impacting soybean, soymeal, and wheat shipments.
Meanwhile, in Nebraska, a rural county's denial of a permit stands in the way of a proposed CO2 pipeline project, highlighting local resistance to large-scale infrastructure projects.
In the cattle market, Friday's Cattle on Feed report is viewed as neutral to slightly bearish, with cattle on feed and marketings in line with expectations, but placements higher than anticipated.
Stay informed on these critical developments and their implications for agricultural markets, geopolitics, and infrastructure projects. 🌍🌾
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Attention traders and farmers! Corn and soybean futures plummet to new lows, with March contracts hitting multi-year bottoms. Explore the implications of these price levels amidst March basis contract deadlines, potentially forcing sales at historic lows. Get insights into market dynamics and large money managers' positions. 📉💰
US ethanol production sees a modest increase, with weekly output up 7% from last year. Dive into the latest ethanol market trends and their impact on energy markets and agriculture. 🌽⛽
Discover how American consumers are grappling with record-high food spending, driven by rising grocery and restaurant prices. Explore the factors contributing to this trend and its implications for the economy. 🍔💳
In other news, the Biden administration greenlights expanded E15 sales, aiming to balance farmer interests and climate goals. Delve into the implications of this decision for energy markets and political dynamics in key Corn Belt states. 🌽🚗
Meanwhile, in the tech sector, the AI craze sends the stock market soaring, fueled by Nvidia's stellar quarterly results. Explore the market reaction and the implications of Nvidia's performance for the broader technology sector. 📈💻
Stay informed on these developments and more, as we navigate the ever-changing landscape of agricultural markets, energy policies, consumer trends, and technology advancements! 🌍🌱
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0:00 Intro + Basis Contract Mess
3:33 Brazil Crop Tour
6:01 Argentina Estimates Cut
7:07 Ukraine IMF Aid
8:15 Fed Minutes
9:33 Cattle and Outside Markets
Attention farmers! It's decision time for March basis contracts as the deadline approaches. Find out how farmers are navigating pricing options amid multi-year low price levels and the impact of rolling contracts forward. Stay informed on market dynamics and pricing strategies. 📉💰
Get the latest on South American crops as Agroconsult and Argentina's Rosario grain exchange revise estimates. Learn how hot and dry weather is affecting soybean and corn production in Brazil and Argentina, shaping global supply dynamics. 🇧🇷🇦🇷
In other news, Ukraine secures IMF funding amidst ongoing conflict with Russia. Discover the implications of this financial aid for Ukraine's economy and geopolitical landscape. 💵🌐
Meanwhile, insights from the Federal Reserve's January meeting reveal cautious optimism about rate cuts amid concerns of inflation resurgence. Stay updated on monetary policy developments and their impact on the economy. 🏦💡
Stay tuned for more updates on agricultural markets, global geopolitics, and economic trends shaping the world around us! 🌍📈
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Discover why investment funds are pouring billions into US farmland and how this trend is reshaping rural communities. Meanwhile, get the latest insights on Brazil's soybean harvest progress and its implications for global markets. 🌍📈
Learn about the White House's anticipated approval of E15 sales expansion and its potential impact on the renewable fuels industry. Stay ahead of the curve with updates on key agricultural policies and developments. 🌽🛢️
In other news, US soybean shipments declined last week while corn shipments saw a modest increase. Dive into the latest export data and its significance for farmers and traders. 📉📦
Additionally, stay informed about the US's warning to allies regarding Russia's potential deployment of a nuclear space weapon. Explore the geopolitical implications of this alarming development. 🚀☢️
Stay tuned for more updates on critical issues shaping the agricultural landscape and global economy! 💡💼
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0:00 13k Subscribers!
0:55 White House Ethanol Rumors
3:26 HUGE Fund Short
5:41 Big Brazil Inventories
7:17 EV Setback
8:18 Wholesale Inflation Hotter
10:18 Cattle and Outside Markets
Stay ahead of the curve with the latest updates impacting agricultural and energy markets! 🌱 Discover how the White House's impending changes to ethanol policy could reshape the industry landscape, potentially impacting ethanol producers and climate-conscious farming practices. Meanwhile, Brazilian grain inventories soar, adding pressure to global grain prices amidst bumper crops and reduced sales. Get insights into Biden's re-election strategy and the potential delay in EV sales mandates, impacting automakers and consumer demand for electric vehicles. 📈🌎
Explore the implications of the January Producer Price Index (PPI) report, which surpassed expectations, signaling ongoing inflationary pressures in the economy. As market dynamics evolve, stay informed to make informed decisions and navigate the changing landscape. Don't miss out on crucial insights that could shape your investment strategies and business decisions! 💡💼
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Get the latest insights from the USDA's Ag Outlook Forum! 🌍 Discover how the newly released crop supply and demand projections confirm a bearish outlook for US corn and soybeans, setting the tone for market dynamics ahead. Explore the implications of NOPA's January crush data, soybean export sales, and the EPA's decision on dicamba herbicides. 📉🌱
Learn about the challenges facing farmers as drought conditions persist across key agricultural regions and how Deere & Co.'s forecast reflects the impact of declining farmer income. Get comprehensive coverage of these crucial developments shaping the agricultural landscape. 📊🌧️
Stay informed with the latest updates on agricultural markets, policy changes, and industry forecasts. Don't miss out on valuable insights that could impact your agricultural investments and decisions! 🔍💡
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0:00 USDA Guessing Game
2:15 Ethanol Production Improves
4:52 Argentina Update
6:27 CF Industries Profits Decline
7:50 Black Sea Drone Strike
8:48 National Security Threat
Catch the latest updates in the agricultural world! 🌍 Join us as we delve into the USDA's Ag Outlook Forum estimates, released this morning, shedding light on the projected 2024 US corn and soybean acreage and yields. Get insights into traders' expectations and how they could shape market dynamics moving forward! 📊
Learn about the recent uptick in US ethanol production and its implications on the energy sector. Discover how Argentina's crops are benefiting from much-needed rainfall, potentially impacting global supply and prices. 🌧️
Find out why profits have tumbled for CF Industries Holdings, the world's largest corn fertilizer producer, and how it relates to broader agricultural trends. Explore the latest developments in the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, including Ukraine's destruction of a Russian warship and concerns over Russian military capabilities. 🚢💥
Stay informed about critical issues affecting agriculture and international relations. Don't miss out on these essential updates! 🔍💡
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Get ready for this week's top agricultural and economic highlights! 🌟 Join us as we dive into the latest USDA crop supply and demand projections, set to be unveiled at the Ag Outlook Forum in Virginia. 🌱 Discover what these projections mean for the upcoming crop year, including acreage, yield, and demand forecasts for corn and soybeans. Don't miss out on this crucial insight into the 2024/25 US balance sheet! 📈
Learn about the shifting landscape of American agriculture, with farm sizes increasing and farm numbers declining. Explore the latest trends from the Census of Agriculture, including the rise of solar-powered and wind turbine-equipped farms. 🌞💨
Stay tuned for the release of January crush data by NOPA, providing key insights into soybean processing activity and soybean oil stocks. Find out how these numbers may impact soybean prices and market sentiment! 🌱🛢️
Discover the implications of the Senate's approval of a massive foreign aid package for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, and the challenges it faces in the House of Representatives. 🌍 And get up to speed on the latest inflation data, with January's CPI report showing higher-than-expected increases, shaking up the stock market and Treasury yields. 💰📉
Join us as we unpack these critical updates and their potential impacts on agricultural markets and the broader economy. Don't forget to like, comment, and subscribe for more valuable insights into the world of agriculture and finance! 🚜💡
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In this exciting update, we delve into the latest agricultural and economic developments shaping markets worldwide! 🌍📈
Discover how Brazil's second corn crop forecast has surged by 5.7%, reaching 91.2 million tons, fueled by expanded planting and favorable weather conditions. 🌽 Learn about the implications of the El Niño weather pattern potentially transitioning to La Niña, and how it could impact crop yields and weather patterns in the US. ☀️⛈️
Explore the latest trends in US soybean shipments, as well as corn and wheat exports, amid shifting market dynamics. 🚢 And get insights into the cryptocurrency world as Bitcoin spikes to $50,000, driven by increased accessibility and the SEC's approval of Bitcoin ETFs. 💹
But that's not all! Stay updated on the S&P 500's recent performance, including Monday's slight decline following record highs, and anticipate the release of today's CPI report, expected to reveal the lowest inflation rate in three years. 💼📉
Join us as we navigate through the latest market movements and economic indicators, providing valuable insights for traders, investors, and enthusiasts alike! 📊💡
Don't forget to like, comment, and subscribe for more updates on agriculture, economics, and finance! Let's stay ahead of the curve together. 🌟🌱
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0:00 Intro + Soybean Losing Streak
3:26 "Extreme" Fund Short
6:00 Brazil Estimates Reduced Again
7:36 Black Sea Drone Attack
8:52 CPI Revised Lower
In this video, we delve into the latest developments in the soybean market and their impact on global agriculture. 🌎
Discover why the soybean market is experiencing its longest losing streak since 2006, as spot futures hit their lowest close since November 2021. 📉 Explore the factors behind this decline, including record-high global stockpiles and sluggish US exports. Learn how Brazilian soybeans trading at a significant discount to US prices are further driving prices down. 🇧🇷
We also analyze the latest Commitment of Traders data, uncovering fund traders' historically large net short positions across the grain complex. 📊 Plus, find out how two agribusiness firms' reductions in Brazil's soybean crop forecast are shaping market sentiment. 🌱
But that's not all! Stay informed about recent geopolitical tensions, such as Russia repelling a Ukrainian drone strike in the Black Sea, impacting oil and grain exports. 🛳️ And get insights into the latest inflation data revisions and their implications for future Fed decisions. 💰
Whether you're a farmer, trader, or enthusiast, this video provides valuable insights into the evolving dynamics of the soybean market and its broader implications for global agriculture and the economy. 🌾💡
Don't forget to like, comment, and subscribe for more updates on agricultural markets and trends! Let's navigate the world of soybeans together. 🚜✨
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0:00 Intro and USDA
3:00 CONAB vs. USDA
6:59 Export Sales
8:48 Corn Flash Sale
10:04 Brazil Farm Bankruptcy
11:15 The US is Broke
In this video, we break down yesterday's USDA report and its impact on the agricultural market. 📊
Discover why the government's reduction in US soybean export projections led to a larger carryout forecast, and learn about the marginal cuts in demand projections for US corn and wheat. 🌾 Plus, explore the implications of Brazil's more aggressive production cuts and how they're affecting global crop forecasts. 🇧🇷
We'll also delve into the latest export sales figures for US soybeans, corn, and wheat, highlighting key trends and market insights. 📉 And don't miss the flash sale of corn to Colombia and its significance in the current marketing year. 🌎
But that's not all! Dive into the concerning rise in Brazilian farm bankruptcies and its potential impact on grain contracts and export programs. 🚜 And stay updated on the progress of the foreign aid package for Ukraine and Israel, navigating its journey through the Senate amidst increasing resistance. 💼
Whether you're a farmer, trader, or simply interested in global agricultural dynamics, this video offers valuable insights and analysis you won't want to miss! Hit play now to stay informed and empowered in today's ever-changing agricultural landscape. 🚜💡
Don't forget to like, comment, and subscribe for more updates on the latest developments in agriculture! Let's cultivate knowledge and growth together. 🌱✨
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0:00 Farm Incomes to Decline Drastically
3:48 USDA Preview
6:36 US/Mexico Corn Dispute
8:04 Ethanol Production Rebounds
9:29 Bunge Earnings
10:32 Dicamba Ruling
In this video, we uncover the startling projections for US farmer income, revealing a 26% decline compared to the previous year. Discover the factors behind this downturn, from market challenges and rising production costs to evolving government support policies. 📉
But it's not all doom and gloom! We also dive into the latest developments and disputes shaping the agricultural landscape. From the US-Mexico GMO corn dispute nearing resolution to the implications of a US court ruling on dicamba herbicides, there's no shortage of intriguing insights to uncover. 💡
Plus, we examine the resilience of the ethanol industry amidst market volatility and delve into Bunge's forecast for slower growth in 2024. 📈
Whether you're a seasoned farmer, agribusiness professional, or simply curious about the future of farming, this video offers valuable insights and perspectives you won't want to miss! Hit play now to stay informed and inspired as we navigate the ever-changing terrain of agriculture together. 🌾✨
Don't forget to like, comment, and subscribe for more engaging content on the latest developments in agriculture! Let's cultivate knowledge and growth, one video at a time. 🚜🌟
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Oil and farm groups in the US are teaming up to oppose the rise of electric vehicles (EVs), which could reduce oil and ethanol demand. They're pushing for year-round sales of E15, a blend of gasoline with 15% ethanol, to promote ethanol usage. Meanwhile, US corn farmers are urging the White House to recognize the benefits of biofuels like ethanol in reducing vehicle emissions. 🌽🛢️🚗
In global news, Chinese officials are concerned about US tariffs and sanctions, but meetings with US Treasury officials were constructive. Russian President Putin is set to visit Turkey, his first trip to a NATO country since the Ukraine invasion. 🇨🇳🇷🇺
In the EU, plans to reduce pesticide use were withdrawn due to farmer protests, but the European Commission proposed cutting net greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2040. 🇪🇺🌱
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0:00 Intro
1:01 Tariff Plans
4:58 Brazil and Argentina Update
8:43 Shipment Update
9:39 Flash Sale
10:25 Tyson Earnings and Cattle
Former President Trump has hinted at imposing substantial tariffs on Chinese goods if he is reelected, specifically mentioning tariffs of 60% or more during a recent Fox News interview. Trump believes that such tariffs are necessary because he perceives that China has taken advantage of the United States. During his previous term, Trump's administration implemented tariffs on a wide range of Chinese imports, amounting to a significant tax increase. These tariffs led to retaliatory measures from China, affecting US exports such as poultry, wheat, and soybeans. It's important to note that discussions around potential policy changes can impact markets, and we aim to provide objective information without taking a political stance. 🇺🇸🇨🇳🛒📈
Meanwhile, Brazil's soybean harvest continues to progress, with 16% of the crop harvested as reported by AgRural. The group projects this season's soybean crop to reach 150.1 million tons. Additionally, 27% of Brazil's second corn crop in the south-central region has been planted, marking a notably swift planting pace, according to AgRural.
US soybean shipments showed improvement last week, with 1.4 million metric tons (52 million bushels) inspected for export during the week ending February 1. This figure exceeded expectations and marked a 56% increase compared to the previous week. However, it was still down by 25% compared to the same week last year. Conversely, corn shipments fell below pre-report estimates, declining by 32% compared to the prior week at 624,295 metric tons (25 million bushels). Wheat shipments were soft, down 6.2% compared to the previous week and 55% lower than the same week last year, totaling 266,269 metric tons (10 million bushels).
Tyson Foods' stock surged by 2% on Monday following the company's fiscal first-quarter results, which exceeded profit projections. Tyson reported sales of $13.32 billion, up from $13.26 billion the previous year. Beef sales rose to $5 billion, although the beef sector faced an adjusted operating loss of $117 million, primarily attributed to the rapid deterioration of cattle futures during the quarter. Tyson's CEO also noted a lack of significant heifer retention for rebuilding the US cattle herd. 🐔🥩📊📈
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CME soybean futures have almost entirely reversed the gains associated with last Tuesday's upside reversal. The nearby Mar24 contract experienced a loss of nearly 15 cents on Friday, following a 19-cent decline on Thursday. This trend underscores the ongoing competitiveness challenges faced by US soybeans in global markets. Reports have indicated that some US buyers have resorted to importing soybeans from Brazil due to the price disparity. The data suggests that US soybeans are currently overpriced compared to their Brazilian counterparts, leading to such market dynamics. 🌱📉🇧🇷🌽
China's persistently weak pork demand reflects underlying economic issues. Despite China's preparations for the Lunar New Year, a period associated with increased pork consumption, demand remains subdued. Pork prices have fallen by approximately 20% compared to a year ago. However, declining wages are restraining consumer spending, exacerbating deflationary pressures in China. In the past year, China experienced its highest pork production levels in nine years, while pork consumption declined by nearly 2%. The Chinese government intervened by purchasing pork three times in 2023 for its strategic reserves to support prices. 🇨🇳🥩📉
Fund traders continue to maintain a historically large net short position across the grain complex, according to the latest Commitment of Traders data released by the CFTC. During the week ending January 30, "the funds" were net sellers of 4,000 contracts of corn, resulting in a net short position of 280,000 contracts, the largest since mid-2020. Additionally, funds were net sellers of 5,000 contracts of soybeans, leading to a net short position of 102,000 contracts, the largest since early 2020. In contrast, funds were net buyers of 3,000 contracts of SRW wheat during the same week. 🌾📊📉
Argentina is grappling with a heat wave that poses a threat to its crops. A dry and scorching heat wave in Argentina has raised concerns about potential damage to soybean and corn crops. Soil and crop conditions have deteriorated significantly as temperatures soared to 104°F (40°C). According to the Rosario grain exchange, the proportion of soybeans classified as being in very good to excellent condition has dropped from 90% to 65%. However, approximately 90% of soybeans are still considered to be in normal to excellent condition despite the challenging weather. The forecast indicates that hot and dry weather will persist in the coming days. ☀️🌾🇦🇷🌽
The USDA is set to release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) report on Thursday. While the February report is typically not associated with significant market volatility, some changes are expected. Traders anticipate the USDA to lower its projections for Brazil's crops while increasing estimates for Argentina. On the US balance sheets, few substantial changes are expected. Here's a look at the pre-report estimates. 📊🌽📈
The S&P 500 achieved a new record high on Friday, driven by impressive quarterly gains from technology companies and a better-than-expected January jobs report. The index rose by 1.1% to close at 4,958.6, marking a fresh record. Notably, the US economy added 353,000 jobs in January, well above the pre-report estimate of 185,000. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.4%, the Dow Jones increased by 1.4%, and the Nasdaq added 1.1%. 📈💼🎉
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American buyers are capitalizing on the affordability of Brazilian soybeans by making significant purchases. Perdue Farms, a major American chicken producer, has acquired three shipments of Brazilian oilseed. These imports, if delivered, will mark the first time in years that American buyers have imported Brazilian soybeans during the winter months. Typically, the United States relies on domestic purchases during this period, given the ample inventories available after harvest. The decision to import Brazilian soybeans suggests that Brazil's crop is in better condition than expected. Moreover, Brazilian soybeans are currently priced at a discount of over $1 per bushel compared to Chicago futures. 🌱🚢🇧🇷🌽
Corteva, a leading agricultural company, experienced a record-breaking surge in its shares on Thursday. The stock saw an astonishing 27% increase before slightly retreating but still closing the day with an 8.6% gain at $54.06 per share. This remarkable rise was attributed to Corteva's optimism that continued demand from farmers will drive profitability over the next two years. The company anticipates increased demand for crops and biofuels, along with growth in the crop protection sector, contributing to higher profits. Corteva's stock had declined by nearly 20% in the previous year due to delayed farmer purchases and competition for generic pesticides in Brazil. Notably, Corteva, a publicly traded company since 2019, includes the well-known Pioneer seed brand as a significant part of its business. 🌾📈💼
In Brazil, estimates for this year's soybean crop continue to decline. According to StoneX, the Brazilian soybean crop for this season is expected to reach 150.4 million tons. This estimate reflects a 1.6% decrease compared to the firm's projection in January and a 4.8% reduction from last year's record crop. The downgrading of estimates is primarily attributed to unfavorable growing conditions. Additionally, the forecast for Brazilian soybean exports has been revised down to 93 million tons, down from the previous estimate of 95 million tons. StoneX maintains its estimate of total corn production at 124.5 million tons, consistent with the previous month's projection. 🌱🇧🇷📉
However, US soybean export sales faced a significant decline last week. Net soybean sales, amounting to 164,500 metric tons (equivalent to 6 million bushels), fell below pre-report estimates and marked a marketing-year low. This represented a sharp drop of 71% compared to the previous week and a 64% decrease from the prior four-week average. China was the largest buyer of soybeans during this period. In contrast, net corn sales reached 1.2 million metric tons (approximately 48 million bushels), showing a 26% increase from the previous week and a 58% surge from the prior four-week average, with Japan emerging as the largest buyer. Net wheat sales, at 322,500 metric tons (about 12 million bushels), were down 29% compared to the previous week and 9% from the prior four-week average. The Philippines accounted for the largest wheat purchase of the week. 🌽🌾🚢
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A heat wave is on the horizon for Argentina, with potential implications for crop forecasts. The Buenos Aires grain exchange has issued a forecast for a heat wave in most of Argentina's farming regions over the next week. While above-normal temperatures are expected, there is also anticipation of rainfall in northern, western, and southern Argentina. Unfortunately, the central and southern regions are expected to remain dry. This weather pattern, if it persists, could lead to downward revisions in Argentina's corn and soybean crop estimates in the coming weeks. 🌡️🌾🌞
Corn and soybean futures showed resilience on Wednesday, maintaining their gains from Tuesday's upside reversal. Despite starting the day with losses, nearby corn and soybean contracts managed to end the day with modest gains. Technicians may view these higher closes as confirmation of Tuesday's reversal pattern. While South American weather remains a topic of discussion, there doesn't appear to be a singular fundamental catalyst for the two-day bounce in these markets. 🌽📈🌱
In the energy sector, US ethanol production increased last week. Weekly output reached 991,000 barrels, marking a 21% increase from the previous week. However, it was down 2.1% compared to the same week last year. Ethanol stocks were reported at 24.3 million barrels, a 6% decrease from the previous week and a 3.2% decrease from the same week last year. Notably, the weekly decline in ethanol stocks, amounting to 1.5 million barrels, is the second-largest on record. Implied gasoline demand saw a 3.4% increase compared to the previous week and remained marginally higher than the same week last year, continuing the trend of elevated gasoline demand. Over the past four weeks, implied US gasoline demand has been up by an average of 4.3% compared to the same period last year. 🌾🚗📈
On the livestock front, the total US cattle inventory has dropped to its lowest level in seven decades. As of January 1, the US had 87.2 million head of all cattle and calves, reflecting a 2% decline from the previous year. This is the smallest cattle inventory since 1951, and it marks the fifth consecutive year of decline. Key factors contributing to this decline include drought conditions and elevated input costs, which have discouraged producers from rebuilding the cattle herd. The beef cowherd, calf crop, and beef replacement heifers also experienced reductions. 🐮📉💧
In financial news, the Fed has indicated that rate cuts in March are unlikely. After announcing no changes to interest rates during its January meeting, the Fed signaled that rate cuts are not on the immediate horizon for March. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need for more data to confirm the downward trend in inflation before considering rate cuts. 💹🏦💲
The stock market experienced its third consecutive month of gains in January, although it dipped on Wednesday following the Federal Reserve's announcement. Despite the day's losses, the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq all ended January positively. For the month, the S&P 500 gained 1.6%, the Dow increased 1.2%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1%. 📈📊💰
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Exciting developments in the grain and oilseed futures market! 🌾 On Tuesday, these commodities showed upside reversal patterns, with the Mar24 corn contract rebounding from a life-of-contract low to close higher. Similarly, the Mar24 soybean contract, after trading at its lowest level since June 2023, experienced a 24 cent gain for the session. Wheat futures also overcame a weak start to close significantly higher. While factors like Argentina's drier forecast and disappointing early soybean yields in Brazil played a role, there doesn't seem to be a single catalyst driving this broad-based rally. 📈🌽🌱
Meanwhile, China's soybean oil and meal prices have faced downward pressure due to reduced demand. Soybean oil prices on China's Dalian Commodities Exchange have declined for three consecutive sessions, while increased supply from South America has led to lower soymeal prices. The slowdown in Chinese soybean demand is partly attributed to stockpiling ending ahead of the Spring Festival, coupled with decreased demand for animal feed. Experts anticipate that Chinese soybean demand could remain sluggish both in the short and long term. Bearish market sentiment is also influenced by upward revisions in Argentina's soybean estimates. 🇨🇳🌱📉
On the global stage, strong economic data and Middle East uncertainty have contributed to a rise in oil prices. WTI crude prices gained 1.4%, closing at $77.82 per barrel on Tuesday. This increase can be attributed to the International Monetary Fund's upward revision of its global economic growth forecast to 3.1% for the year, driven by stimulus measures in China and robust US growth. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the Iranian drone attack in Jordan, have also raised concerns about potential disruptions in the oil market, further pushing prices higher. 🛢️🌍💰
As for interest rates, expectations regarding the timing of cuts remain mixed. The Federal Reserve is anticipated to maintain its benchmark rate during its January meeting and provide insights into the timing of rate cuts. While most economists expect cuts to start in May or June, the market suggests a 46% probability of a rate cut in March. The Fed's decision will be influenced by economic strength, inflation levels, and the risk of inadvertently causing a recession by keeping rates high for an extended period. 🏦💱📉
Lastly, US economic reports show interesting trends. Job openings in the US reached their highest level in three months in December, with 9 million openings. However, the number of quits decreased to 3.4 million, the lowest in nearly three years. This implies that for every unemployed individual, there are 1.4 job openings, a substantial decline from the peak of 2 to 1 in March 2022. Additionally, US consumer confidence in January reached its highest point since the end of 2021, signaling positive sentiment among consumers. 👨💼📊🇺🇸
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Exciting news in the world of ethanol! 🌽 Poet LLC, the world's top ethanol producer, is teaming up with Summit Carbon Solutions to take part in the largest carbon pipeline project in the US. This collaboration aims to reduce biofuel emissions and tap into the Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) market. Summit Carbon Solutions will transport carbon dioxide from 17 Poet facilities, as well as 51 ethanol plants, through a proposed pipeline that traverses the Corn Belt. Although construction of the pipeline has faced challenges, this partnership highlights the commitment to sustainability in the biofuel industry. 🛢️🌍
In a significant development, a Hong Kong court has ordered China Evergrande Group to liquidate. This decision is expected to further shake up China's already unstable real estate industry, which has witnessed multiple developer failures over the past few years. Factors like declining property values and banks withholding funds have contributed to the sector's downturn, which used to account for around 25% of China's GDP. Economists anticipate that the situation could worsen as the industry faces continued challenges. 🇨🇳🏢💥
Meanwhile, Brazil's soybean harvest is making steady progress. According to AgRural, 11% of Brazil's soybean crop has been harvested, ahead of last year's pace. Additionally, 11% of Brazil's second corn crop has been planted, showing a positive trend compared to the previous year. While AgRural estimates this year's Brazilian soybean harvest at 148.55 million tons, agricultural consulting firm Datagro suggests that the crop may fall short of earlier projections. 🌱🚜🇧🇷
Over in Russia, wheat prices have been affected by ample supplies in the Black Sea region. Russian wheat exports are predicted to reach 3.6 million tons this month, experiencing a slight decrease from January 2023. However, it's expected that exports will bounce back in the near future. Despite the surplus, Russia has made significant wheat purchases this year. Sovecon, a research firm, has also forecasted a modest increase in Russia's wheat crop this season. 🌾🇷🇺
On the US front, soybean shipments had a challenging week. USDA data revealed that soybean inspections for export during the week ending January 25 were down by 25% compared to the previous week and a significant 54% drop from the same week last year. In contrast, corn shipments increased by 21% from the prior week. Wheat shipments, however, lagged behind, showing a 16% decline from the previous week and a 41% decrease from the same week last year. 🚢🌾🇺🇸
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Trade tensions could potentially escalate if Donald Trump is reelected as president. 😬 Some Americans are considering voting for Trump in the upcoming election due to his economic performance during his first term, which included passing a significant tax overhaul. However, in his second term, there may not be a new tax plan in the works. Instead, Trump has indicated a willingness to expand the trade war initiated during his first term. If reelected, he has suggested imposing a 10% tariff on all imports, a move that could lead to retaliatory measures from other countries. Reports have even suggested that Trump has privately discussed imposing federal tariffs on Chinese imports at rates of 40% or more. It's important to note that this information is related to the agricultural markets and does not endorse any political candidate. 🌐
In the grain markets, fund traders are maintaining historically large net short positions across the complex. According to the latest Commitment of Traders data from the CFTC, funds were net sellers of 34,000 contracts of corn, resulting in a net short position of 275,000 contracts, the largest since mid-2020. For soybeans, funds were net sellers of 18,000 contracts, resulting in a net short position of 96,000 contracts, the largest since early 2020. However, funds were net buyers of 7,000 contracts of SRW wheat. 💰🌽🌱
Brazil's soybean harvest is progressing well, with 9% of this year's crop already harvested. This progress is ahead of last year when only 4.4% of the crop had been harvested at this time. Safras and Mercado estimate this season's Brazilian soybean crop at 151.4 million tons. The weather forecast in Brazil appears mostly favorable, while Argentina is expected to return to a wetter pattern later in the week. 🌦️🚜
The situation in the Red Sea continues to affect grain shipments, with more vessels opting to avoid the region due to ongoing Houthi attacks. Since the beginning of January, 3.9 million tons of grain have been diverted from the Red Sea, causing disruptions to the usual grain transit through the Suez Canal. Many of the diverted ships are reportedly carrying US grain. In January, it's projected that 2.4 million tons of grain will pass through the Suez Canal, down significantly from previous months. 🚢🌊
Finally, inflation appears to be easing, with the personal consumption expenditures price index showing a 0.2% monthly increase and a 2.9% year-over-year increase in December. Consumer spending also rose by 0.7% during the same month, exceeding expectations. However, personal savings decreased from 4.1% in November to 3.7% in December. The markets are currently pricing in a 53% chance of the Federal Reserve beginning to cut interest rates in March. 💹💰
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Argentina's soybean and corn crop estimates get a boost! 🌾📈 The Buenos Aires grain exchange increased its forecast, projecting a soybean crop of 52.5 million tons (up from 52 million) and a corn crop of 56.5 million tons (up from 55 million). Improved rainfall contributed to the increases, but future rains are crucial for sustaining these projections.
Oil prices surge to a two-month high! 🛢️⬆️ WTI crude rose 3% to $77.36 per barrel, fueled by factors such as a significant drop in US crude inventories, a drone attack on a Russian oil refinery, and China's stimulus measures expected to boost energy consumption and aid economic recovery.
US corn export sales dip, while soybean and wheat sales show mixed trends. 🌽🌾 Net corn sales of 954,800mt were -24% from the previous week, but soybean and wheat sales had varied performance. The drought monitor data reveals varying conditions across US regions, with concerns in areas like Corn and Soybean belts.
The US economy experiences rapid growth in Q4 2023! 📈 GDP increased at a 3.3% annualized rate, surpassing expectations. Consumer spending played a significant role, driving overall growth to 2.5% for the entire year. However, concerns linger about the delayed impacts of the Fed's interest rate hikes in 2024. 📊💸
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ADM's nutrition unit aided executives in earning over $70 million, but now faces investigation for accounting practices, despite contributing less than 10% to the company's revenue. Executive bonuses were heavily influenced by the nutrition sector, with stock bonuses tied to its growth between 2020 and 2021. The top seven executives received shares valued at nearly $72 million.
The world's first ethanol-to-sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production facility, Freedom Pines Fuels, opened in Georgia, producing 10 million gallons of SAF and renewable diesel annually. The Biden administration aims to produce 3 billion gallons of SAF annually by 2030. The technology used at the facility will reduce greenhouse gas emissions by more than 70%, providing new economic opportunities for American agricultural producers. 🌱✈️🛢️
Glencore and Viterra filed a lawsuit against Louis Dreyfus, alleging the artificial inflation and manipulation of cotton prices in 2011, causing over $200 million in losses. Cotton prices tripled between July 2010 and March 2011, reaching a record high of $2.20 per pound.
US ethanol production fell by 22% last week, with stocks at 25.8 million barrels. Implied gasoline demand was down 4.8%, and on average over the last four weeks, implied US gasoline demand is slightly lower compared to the same period last year. 📉🛢️🇺🇸
Farmers in France continued protests against government regulations, cheap imports, and rising costs. Demonstrations involved road blockades, fires, and manure spraying on government buildings. Farmers demanded higher prices, citing threats to livelihoods due to falling prices after a period of high inflation. The French government is expected to propose solutions soon. 🚜🔥🇫🇷
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China is taking steps to reduce its hog herd as part of efforts to regulate the industry and stabilize prices. 🐖 The country's agriculture ministry is guiding farmers to sell their hogs, which would lead to a decrease in herd numbers. China's hog herd had expanded rapidly in recent years, resulting in oversupply and declining prices. 📉 Hog slaughter reached a nine-year high at the end of last year as producers tried to address the oversupply issue. 🐷 The reduction in the hog herd is expected to continue over the next one to two months. ⏳
Additionally, China is looking to enhance its food security and reduce reliance on imports by increasing oilseed production, particularly soybeans. 🌱 The plan involves boosting soybean yields by planting more genetically modified (GMO) soybean varieties and reducing the soybean meal ratio in animal feed. 🌾 This move aligns with China's goal to reduce imports and strengthen domestic production of key agricultural commodities. 🌍
In the United States, farmers are making slight adjustments to their planting intentions for the upcoming season. 🌽 According to a survey, corn plantings are expected to decrease by 2% to 92.8 million acres, while soybean acres are projected to increase by 1.6% to 85 million acres. 🚜 This would make it the fifth-largest soybean crop ever planted in the US. Additionally, winter wheat acres are forecasted to increase by 1.5% to 37.3 million acres, while spring wheat acres are anticipated to decline significantly by 19% to 9.1 million acres. 🌾
However, in Brazil, soybean production estimates continue to decline, with projections from various sources indicating lower crop expectations than previously anticipated. 🇧🇷 Private group AgRural's estimate is at 150.1 million tons, while Dr. Michael Cordonnier's estimate remains unchanged at 149 million tons for soybeans. 🌱 These estimates are notably lower than the USDA and Conab's projections, which are higher at 157 million tons and 155 million tons, respectively. 📉
Lastly, severe winter weather in North Dakota has disrupted oil production, causing significant losses in oil output. ❄️ The frigid temperatures have impacted one of the largest natural gas and oil resources in the US, with estimates suggesting the loss of around 700,000 barrels of oil per day. It may take weeks or even months for production to return to normal, and the extreme cold has led to numerous incidents involving leaks or equipment failures. ⛽🌨️
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Last week, California regulators granted approval for the operation of a massive renewable diesel plant by Phillips 66 in Rodeo, CA. This facility is set to become the world's largest renewable fuel production facility with a capacity of 50,000 barrels per day. It represents a significant step in the transition towards renewable energy and lower-carbon solutions. The plant's approval came after facing environmental challenges, and its operation is expected to contribute to reduced greenhouse gas emissions by 50%, as it will no longer process crude oil. This move aligns with the growing focus on sustainable and renewable energy sources. 🌱🛢️🌍
On another note, shares of Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) experienced a sharp decline, falling by 22% on Monday. This significant drop was attributed to ADM's CFO being placed on administrative leave while the company's accounting practices are under investigation. ADM, which has a history of legal issues, is also currently facing a lawsuit related to price manipulation in its ethanol business. These challenges have had a notable impact on the company's stock value. 💼📉💰
Meanwhile, Brazil's soybean harvest is progressing ahead of last year's pace, with 6% of the crop harvested as of last week. This is notably higher than the 1.8% harvested at the same time last year. Despite this progress, estimates for Brazil's soybean crop have been adjusted lower, reflecting the impact of weather conditions on the crop. 🌱🇧🇷🚜
In terms of soybean shipments from the US, there was a decline reported last week. This decrease in shipments can be influenced by various factors, including global market dynamics and demand. Additionally, consumer sentiment in the US has been on the rise since November, driven by a strong labor market and expectations of decreasing inflation. However, economists anticipate economic growth to slow down in the coming year due to potential Fed rate hikes and other factors. 🇺🇸📈💼
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Fund traders have established historically large net short positions across the grain complex, particularly in corn and soybeans. According to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data from the CFTC, here's a summary of their positions:
Corn: Fund traders were net sellers of 34,000 contracts of corn during the week ending January 16. This has resulted in a net short position of 272,000 contracts in corn, which is the largest seen since mid-2020.
Soybeans: In the same week, fund traders sold 46,000 contracts of soybeans, leading to a net short position of 79,000 contracts. This is the largest net short position in soybeans since early 2020.
SRW Wheat: Fund traders were also net sellers of 15,000 contracts of SRW wheat during the week.
These significant net short positions suggest that fund traders are taking bearish positions, anticipating lower prices in the grain complex. This could be influenced by various factors, including market sentiment, supply and demand dynamics, and external factors such as weather conditions. It's important to keep an eye on how these positions evolve, as they can impact price movements in the grain markets. 🌾📊📉
Additionally, it's worth noting that the Brazilian soybean harvest is progressing, with 5.1% of the crop harvested so far. Safras is projecting a slightly lower soybean crop for Brazil compared to some other estimates. On the trade front, there have been significant corn export sales and a flash sale of soybeans to China reported by USDA. These developments are noteworthy for the grain markets. 🌽🌱🚢
In the cattle market, the Cattle on Feed report was viewed as friendly, with marketings performing well and placements lower. This had a positive impact on the cattle market. Meanwhile, the overall stock market experienced a rally, with technology stocks leading the way to new highs. 🐄📈💹
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Futures Rebound After Hitting Lows: 📉🌾 Corn, soybean, and HRW wheat futures hit fresh life-of-contract lows during a recent trading session but managed to close higher. While these were not considered "key" reversals, the fact that they closed higher is seen as a positive sign.
Declining Brazilian Crop Estimates: 🇧🇷🌱 Agroconsult has launched its Brazilian soybean crop tour, and its initial estimate for the crop stands at 153.8 million tons, down from its December estimate of 158.8 million tons. This reduction is attributed to adverse weather conditions in various Brazilian states, including hot and dry weather in Mato Grosso and excessive rainfall in the southern regions. Additionally, Brazilian farmers had to replant soybean acres due to extreme weather, with an estimated 7.2 million acres replanted, accounting for 6.4% of Brazil's total soybean acres.
Black Sea Grain Deal Negotiations: 🌾🌍 Negotiations are underway to potentially revive the Black Sea grain deal, with a focus on determining a structure for international partners to support Ukraine. The Black Sea grain deal expired in July 2023 when Russia withdrew from the agreement. Ukraine subsequently established an alternative shipping corridor along its western Black Sea coast, facilitating the export of 16.5 million tons of cargo, primarily food products.
Reduction in Panama Canal Traffic: 🚢🌊 Authorities in Panama have announced a 36% reduction in ship crossings through the Panama Canal until the end of April. This reduction is attributed to concerns about the water levels in the canal, which are critical for both its operations and human consumption. It is expected to cost Panama between $500 million and $700 million this year, and more than half of the country's population relies on the same lakes that fill the canal.
US Ethanol Production Decline: 🇺🇸🌽 US ethanol production saw a marginal decline last week, with weekly output at 1.5 million barrels. However, this figure represents a 12% increase compared to the same week last year. Ethanol stocks increased to 25.7 million barrels, up 8% from the same week last year. Implied gasoline demand remained strong, with a 9.4% increase compared to the same week last year.
Drought Monitor Data: 🌧️🌡️ The USDA released its weekly drought monitor data, showing significant improvement in drought conditions across parts of the Corn Belt. Precipitation in these areas was more than 200% of the weekly average, leading to notable drought improvement in regions including southeast Iowa, southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, Indiana, western Ohio, and Kentucky. However, the High Plains experienced winter storms and cold temperatures, resulting in little to no change in drought conditions.
These developments underscore the dynamics of commodity futures, Brazilian crop challenges, international negotiations, water resource concerns, ethanol production, and drought conditions in key agricultural regions. 📈🌎🚢
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China's Soybean Demand Decline: 🇨🇳🌱 China's soybean imports are expected to decline by 20% in the first quarter of this year, totaling about 18.5 million tons. This reduction in demand is primarily driven by a decrease in hog numbers due to factors such as poor prices, high input costs, and outbreaks of African swine fever. At least half of these imports are expected to come from the United States. China imported a record 99.4 million metric tons of soybeans in 2023, marking an 11% increase from the previous year. The decrease in soybean demand has been influenced by increased soybean inventories.
China's Population Decline: 🇨🇳👶 China's population is on a downward trend, with around 9 million births recorded last year, which is over half a million fewer than the previous year. The total population in China decreased by 2.08 million in 2023, more than double the decline seen in 2022. Various measures, including matchmaking and cash incentives, have been employed by local governments to encourage more births, but economic uncertainty has been a significant factor contributing to the declining birth rate. In 2023, China's GDP increased by 5.2%, slightly slower than the pre-pandemic levels of over 6%.
Challenges in China's Economy: 📉🇨🇳 China's economy faced challenges in the fourth quarter of 2023, with GDP growth at 5.2%, slightly below expectations of 5.3%. For the full year, GDP increased by 5.2%, a rise from 3% in 2022 but still relatively low. The property sector saw a significant decline in investment, down by 9.6% in 2023. China's unemployment rate among people aged 16 to 24 improved to 14.9% in December, compared to 21.3% in June, the last reported figures. To maintain economic stability and growth, China may need to consider implementing substantial stimulus measures, as GDP growth is forecasted to slow to 4.6% this year.
Challenges in Mato Grosso's Soybean Yields: 🌱🇧🇷 Mato Grosso, a key soybean-producing region in Brazil, is facing challenges in its soybean yields, which are projected to be 15% below the 15-year historical trend. This decline in yields is significant and has not been seen since 2016 when yields fell 13% below trend. As a result, EarthDaily Agro forecasts Brazil's soybean crop at 149.2 million tons, notably lower than projections from Conab (155 million tons) and the USDA (157 million tons).
Strong US Retail Sales: 🛍️📊 US retail sales showed strength in December, growing by 0.6%, surpassing economists' expectations of a 0.4% increase. This growth follows a 0.3% gain in November. Excluding auto and gas sales, retail sales increased by 4.9% over the course of 2023. The robust performance of retail sales reflects a healthy economy, and experts believe that the economy is strong enough that a reduction in interest rates is not necessary to sustain it.
These developments highlight various economic and agricultural dynamics, from shifts in demand for soybeans in China to demographic trends and economic challenges in both China and Brazil, as well as the resilience of the US retail sector. 🌍📈🌽
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Record Soybean Crush in December: 🌱🏭 The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported that its members processed 195.328 million bushels of soybeans in December, marking the largest soybean crush for any month on record. This December soybean crush was up 3.3% compared to November and 10% higher than the same month in the previous year. End-of-month soybean oil stocks also increased, reaching 1.360 billion pounds, the highest since September. While stocks rose by 12.1% compared to November, they were down 24% compared to December 2022.
Increased Soybean Shipments: 🚢🌱 US soybean shipments saw an increase last week, with 1.3 million metric tons (46 million bushels) of soybeans inspected for export during the week ending January 11. This represents a 22% increase compared to the previous week but a 42% decrease compared to the same week last year. Corn shipments, on the other hand, declined by 20% compared to the prior week, totaling 875,621 metric tons (34 million bushels), while wheat shipments were reported at 234,205 metric tons (9 million bushels), down 53% from the previous week and 28% lower than the same week last year.
USDA Flash Sale of Corn to Mexico: 🌽🇲🇽 US exporters made a flash sale of corn to Mexico, selling 126,700 metric tons (5 million bushels) of corn for delivery during the current marketing year. This marks the second flash sale of corn to Mexico in the past week, totaling 301,700 metric tons (12 million bushels).
Lowered Brazilian Soybean Estimates: 🇧🇷🌱 Aprosoja Brasil, a Brazilian farmer lobbying group, has lowered its forecast for Brazil's soybean crop to 135 million tons due to hot and dry weather conditions, as well as heavy rains disrupting harvest. This estimate is significantly lower than Conab's projection of 155 million tons and the USDA's estimate of 157 million tons. The adjustment in crop prediction has impacted soybean futures.
Strong Forecasts for Argentina: 🇦🇷🌽🌱 Argentina's soybean and corn crops are expected to yield exceptional results due to ample rainfall. The Rosario grain exchange anticipates that these forecasts will continue to rise. Currently, the exchange projects Argentina's corn crop at 59 million tons, set to be a record-high, and its soybean crop at 52 million tons, the highest since 2019.
Iowa Farmers' Support for Trump: 🗳️🚜 Farmer support in Iowa played a pivotal role in Donald Trump's win in the Republican nomination on Monday. Despite concerns about the potential re-ignition of a trade war with China, farmers in Iowa continue to back Trump. A recent poll indicated that 39% of farmers across the nation support Trump, highlighting the continued loyalty of farmers to the former president, who provided significant financial assistance to farmers during his time in office.
These developments reflect the dynamic nature of the agricultural industry, with factors like processing records, export changes, and political support influencing the market. 🌾📈🌎
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US Corn and Soybean Crop Estimates: 🌽🌱 The USDA increased its estimates for the 2023 US corn and soybean crops. The corn production estimate rose to a record 15.342 billion bushels, with a record yield of 177.3 bushels per acre. The soybean crop estimate increased to 4.165 billion bushels, with a national yield of 50.6 bushels per acre. These increases were unexpected and led to sharp declines in grain and oilseed futures. 😲📈
US Winter Wheat Seedings: 🌾❄️ Winter wheat seedings in the US were below expectations, with all winter wheat seedings pegged at 34.4 million acres compared to the average pre-report guess of 35.8 million acres. Hard Red Winter (HRW) seedings were lower than trade expectations at 24.0 million acres, and Soft Red Winter (SRW) seedings were also below expectations at 6.86 million acres. 📉🚜
Money Managers' Positions: 💼💰 Large money managers increased their net short position in the corn market, with the net short position reaching 237,000 contracts, the largest since mid-2020. Funds were also net sellers of 24,000 contracts of soybeans. 📊🌽
Brazilian Soybean Crop Estimates: 🇧🇷🌱 Brazilian soybean crop estimates continue to decline, with AgRural projecting a crop of 150.1 million tons, down from its December projection of 159.1 million tons. The reduction is attributed to high temperatures and insufficient rainfall. ☀️🌧️
Shipping Rates Surge: 🚢💥 Container shipping rates for major global trade routes surged due to unrest in the Red Sea. US and British airstrikes on Yemen in response to Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping contributed to the spike in rates. Shipping companies expect rates to remain high for at least the next two months. 🌊📈
Ukraine Peace Plan Meeting: 🇺🇦🕊️ A meeting in Davos focused on Ukraine's peace plan yielded no clear results. Ukraine's 10-point peace blueprint aims for the full withdrawal of Russian troops. However, the meeting ended without a clear path forward or future meetings scheduled. 🤝🗳️
Wholesale Price Declines: 💼💲 Wholesale prices have declined for three consecutive months, with the December Producer Price Index (PPI) falling 0.1% compared to the previous month. This decline is partly attributed to a 12.4% drop in the cost of diesel fuel. While annual PPI increased by 1% in December, lower wholesale prices may lead to expectations of continued downward inflation trends in the coming year. 📉🛢️💱
These developments highlight the dynamic nature of the agricultural and global economic landscape, with multiple factors influencing commodity markets, trade, and geopolitical tensions. 🌍🌾🌐
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Today, the USDA is set to release several important reports at 11:00 AM CST, which include the quarterly Grain Stocks report, the monthly Crop Production/WASDE report, and the Winter Wheat Seedings report. The January report is known to be influential in the market and has previously been associated with trend changes. It includes the "final" 2023 US corn and soybean production numbers, which will be closely watched by traders, along with any updates on South American production estimates. 🌾📊
China is taking steps to increase its corn stockpiles by purchasing corn from northeastern China and other key producing regions. This move is aimed at bolstering its reserves. USDA data has estimated China's 2023 corn crop at 277 million tons, which would be the second-largest on record, coming close to the all-time high of 277.2 million tons in 2022. 🌽🇨🇳
Argentina's corn crop is expected to reach a record size, with projections from the Rosario grain exchange estimating a harvest of 59 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons from previous estimates. This boost is attributed to ample rainfall. The exchange has also raised its estimate for Argentina's soybean crop to 52 million tons, up from the earlier forecast of 50 million tons. 🌽🌱🇦🇷
US corn export sales have shown an increase in the past week, with net sales of 487,600 metric tons (19 million bushels). This represents a 33% increase from the previous week. However, soybean sales fell below expectations at 280,400 metric tons (10 million bushels), albeit showing a 39% increase from the previous week. Wheat sales were also below expectations, totaling 128,100 metric tons (5 million bushels). China was the largest buyer of wheat for the week. 🌽🌾🚢
A recent flash sale of corn to Mexico was reported by the USDA, with 175,000 metric tons (7 million bushels) sold for delivery during the current marketing year. This marks the first flash sale since December 19th and the first flash sale of US corn since December 8th. 🌽🇲🇽🚢
Inflation has risen more than expected, with the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a 0.3% increase compared to the previous month, slightly surpassing the anticipated 0.2%. On a yearly basis, CPI increased by 3.4% in December, exceeding economists' projections of 3.2%. Shelter costs played a significant role in this increase, with a monthly rise of 0.5% and an annual increase of 6.2%. Despite this, the markets are still projecting a 69% likelihood of the Federal Reserve starting to cut rates in March. The December Producer Price Index (PPI) report, expected later today, will provide further insights. 💹📈💰
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Conab, Brazil's equivalent to the USDA, has reduced its forecasts for both Brazil's soybean and corn crops. The soybean estimate has been lowered by 4.2% to 155.3 million tons, but despite this reduction, Brazil is still on track to achieve a record soybean crop this season. Additionally, Brazil is expected to maintain its position as the world's leading soybean exporter, with an estimated export volume of 98.4 million tons. Conab has also downgraded its projection for Brazil's corn crop by nearly 11%, estimating it at 117.6 million tons. Corn exports are anticipated to decline to 35 million tons, down from 56 million tons in the previous year. 🌱🌽🇧🇷
Winter Storm Gerri is set to bring more winter weather to the Plains and Midwest. This storm is forecast to bring heavy snowfall and gusty winds to various regions. It is expected to drop snow across the Central Plains, moving eastward into southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana. The Midwest is likely to experience persistent snowfall and gusty winds throughout Friday. Some areas, particularly in northern Illinois and Michigan, could see more than 6 inches of snow accumulation. ❄️🌬️
US ethanol production increased during the past week, with a weekly output of 1.06 million barrels, marking a 1.2% increase compared to the previous week and a substantial 26% increase year-over-year. Ethanol stocks reached 24.4 million barrels, showing a 3.4% rise compared to the previous week but a slight decrease compared to the same period last year. Implied gasoline demand also saw positive growth, rising by 4.7% compared to the previous week and by 11% year-over-year. Over the last four weeks, implied US gasoline demand has increased by 1.2% compared to the same period in the previous year. 🌽🛢️🚗
Economists are anticipating an increase in inflation for the month of December. The expected rise is estimated at 0.2% compared to the previous month and a year-over-year increase of 3.2%. This potential uptick in inflation could have implications for the Federal Reserve's plans regarding interest rates. While the Fed had previously indicated three quarter-percentage-point rate cuts by the end of the year, the markets are anticipating a total of six rate cuts. Fed officials have suggested that rate hikes may be finished, but the possibility of rate cuts remains uncertain. The December CPI report, which could provide further insight, is set to be released today. 💹🏦💲
The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved 11 spot-bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This decision allows everyday traders to buy and sell bitcoin through these ETFs without needing to own the cryptocurrency directly. The new ETFs began trading on the same day they were approved. Bitcoin settled just below $46,000 on the day of the announcement, following a substantial increase in its value since January 2023, when it was approximately $17,000 lower. Some critics argue that this approval could pose challenges for the SEC in terms of investor protection. 📈💰🪙
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0:00 Brazil Soybean Update
1:33 Argentina Update
2:03 "Perfect Storm"
5:00 USDA Preview
6:36 Ukraine Peace Meeting
7:49 JBS Stock Listing
9:53 Cattle & Outside Markets
Brazil's largest farm cooperative, Coamo, is gearing up to receive substantial quantities of soybeans by the end of January. The accelerated harvest is a result of hot weather conditions, which have expedited the crop's maturation. The last time Coamo received such significant soybean volumes in January was during the 2018/2019 season. Despite the early harvest, soybean yields are holding up as average, even with the shortened growing season. This early influx of soybeans has also led to a reduction in soybean port premiums relative to US soybeans. 🌱🚜🌞
Argentina's soybean and corn crops have been benefiting from adequate rainfall throughout December, as reported by the Buenos Aires grain exchange. The favorable precipitation is expected to continue into January, accompanied by mild temperatures. However, rainfall is projected to taper off in March, with rising temperatures. The Rosario grain exchange is forecasting Argentina's soybean crop to reach 50 million tons and its corn crop to hit 56 million tons. 🌧️🌽🇦🇷
The USDA is scheduled to release several important reports on January 12th, including quarterly Grain Stocks, monthly Crop Production / WASDE, and Winter Wheat Seedings. The January report is historically a significant market mover and has the potential to trigger trend changes. It will also provide the "final" 2023 US corn and soybean production numbers, which are closely monitored by traders. South American production estimates will also be a focus. 📊🌽🌱
In a secret meeting last month, Ukraine, along with G-7 countries and a select group of Global South nations, engaged in discussions regarding Ukraine's "peace formula" and guidelines for future interactions with Russia. However, no major progress was reported from the meeting, highlighting the ongoing complexities of the situation. Notably, China, Brazil, and the United Arab Emirates did not attend, and Russia was not invited. Despite more than $100 billion in aid pledged by the US and EU for Ukraine, efforts to resolve the conflict have faced challenges. 🤝🌍🕊️
A group of UK lawmakers is taking action to pressure the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to prevent JBS, the world's largest meat supplier, from being listed on the NYSE (New York Stock Exchange). The lawmakers argue that JBS is associated with deforestation, human rights violations, and the seizure of land from Indigenous people. JBS has been seeking NYSE listing for over a decade, and company executives believe that such a listing could significantly boost its market value to nearly $30 billion.🌳🌎🚫
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Winter Storm Finn is set to impact the Midwest and Great Lakes regions, bringing a mix of snow, strong winds, and rain. This storm is currently moving across the Plains and will reach its peak impact in the central and eastern states on Tuesday and Wednesday. Significant snow accumulations, potentially reaching 5 inches or more, are expected in several areas, including western Kansas, eastern Nebraska, Iowa, northern Missouri, northwest Illinois, southern Wisconsin, and northern Michigan. Some localized totals could even reach up to a foot of snow, accompanied by strong winds. 🌨️❄️💨
Despite facing challenges, Ukraine continues to export cargo through its alternative Black Sea corridor. This corridor was established in August as an alternative to the Black Sea grain deal after Russia exited. Ukraine has successfully shipped 15 million tons of cargo through this route, with agricultural goods accounting for 10 million tons of the total. However, Ukraine's grain exports have seen an 18% decline this season compared to the same period last year. Corn exports are down by 23%, while wheat exports have seen a more modest 1% decrease. 🌾🚢🌊
Soybean yields in Mato Grosso, Brazil, are currently below normal due to hot and dry conditions. As of last Thursday, only 0.6% of Brazil's soybean crop had been harvested. These challenging weather conditions have impacted yields in Mato Grosso, and recent rains are now making the harvest difficult. While the crop was initially projected to reach 159 million tons by AgRural, this estimate may be revised in light of the adverse conditions. Additionally, 3.3% of the first corn crop in south-central Brazil had been harvested as of last Thursday. 🌱🌦️🚜
US soybean shipments faced a decline last week, with 674,749 metric tons (25 million bushels) inspected for export during the week ending January 4. This marked a 30% decrease compared to the previous week and a 54% decline compared to the same week last year. In contrast, corn shipments increased by 50% compared to the prior week, reaching 856,597 metric tons (34 million bushels). Wheat shipments also exceeded expectations, totaling 491,074 metric tons (18 million bushels) and increasing by 78% compared to the previous week and a substantial 134% compared to the same week last year. 🌾🚢📉
The US dollar, which had initially shown strength in the first days of the year, retreated for the second consecutive day. This pullback was driven by speculators betting against the dollar, anticipating that the Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates this year. US Treasury yields also experienced a retreat. The focus now turns to key inflation data with the upcoming release of the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports, which will provide insights into the economic landscape and potential Fed actions. 💵📉📊
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Estimates for Brazil's soybean crop continue to trend downward as adverse weather conditions impact production. Last week, the USDA lowered its projection for the 2022/2023 Brazilian soybean crop to 158.5 million tons due to a lack of rainfall. In contrast, the estimate for the 2022/2023 crop was increased by 3 million tons to 158 million tons. This adjustment reflects the agency's expectations for higher domestic demand for soybean meal and oil, potentially limiting exports of these products. Additionally, Argentina's return to normal export levels may pose challenges for Brazilian exports of soybean oil and meal. Safras also reduced its estimate for this season's Brazilian soybean crop to 151.4 million tons, further highlighting the challenging conditions faced by Brazilian soybean farmers. 🌱🇧🇷🌧️
Large money managers increased their net short positions in the corn market, according to the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders data. During the week ending January 2, these funds were net sellers of 29,000 contracts of corn, reflecting bearish sentiment in the market. Similar trends were observed in soybeans and SRW wheat, where large money managers also increased their net short positions. 📉🌽📊
US corn export sales faced a significant decline last week, with net sales dropping to a marketing year low of 367,500 metric tons (14 million bushels). This decrease of 70% from the previous week and the prior 4-week average highlights the challenges in the export market. On the soybean front, net sales also hit a marketing year low at 201,600 metric tons (7 million bushels), down 80% from the previous week and 85% from the prior 4-week average. Wheat sales of 131,600 metric tons (5 million bushels) were down 52% from the previous week and 79% from the prior 4-week average. These numbers underscore the dynamic nature of US grain exports and the impact of various factors on sales. 🌾🌽🚢
The December jobs report brought some positive news, as more jobs were added than expected. Non-farm payrolls increased by 216,000, surpassing economists' projections of 175,000. The unemployment rate remained steady at 3.7%, defying expectations of a slight uptick to 3.8%. While the pace of job creation in 2023 slowed compared to the previous year, the US economy still added 2.7 million jobs throughout the year. 📈💼🇺🇸
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is moving closer to approving spot-bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The SEC's announcement that exchanges and issuers seeking to list Bitcoin ETFs must submit final paperwork by a certain deadline indicates progress in this area. The SEC commissioners are expected to vote on the exchange-rule filings, and if approvals are obtained, these ETFs could begin trading shortly thereafter. This development highlights the growing interest in cryptocurrency-related investment products and their regulatory evolution. 📈💱📊
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The wheat market saw a rally on Thursday, driven by rumors of increased Chinese buying interest in US Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat. China has already purchased nearly 2 million metric tons (mmt) of US SRW wheat for the current marketing year, likely due to quality issues in its own crop. This news has pushed the pace of US wheat export sales ahead of last year's levels, although it remains the second weakest in the past decade. 🌾🇨🇳🌾
The USDA is set to release several important reports on January 12th, including quarterly Grain Stocks, monthly Crop Production/WASDE, and Winter Wheat Seedings. These reports can have a significant impact on the markets and may bring about trend changes. The January report will include the "final" 2023 US corn and soybean production figures, which traders will be closely watching, along with any changes in South American production estimates. 📊📈🌽
Brazil is experiencing a wetter weather pattern, with daily rainfall expected over the next 10 days. While this rainfall is beneficial for some areas, northern Brazil, which faced an abnormally dry period from September to December, could become "too wet." Additionally, rain is expected to return to southern Brazil in the 5-10 day period. These weather developments are being closely monitored as they can impact crop conditions and production. 🌦️🇧🇷🌱
US ethanol production declined last week, with weekly output dropping by 5.2%. Despite the weekly decrease, ethanol stocks increased marginally. Implied gasoline demand also experienced a significant drop compared to the previous week but remained up slightly over the same period last year. The ethanol market continues to be influenced by factors such as fuel demand and inventory levels. ⛽🍃📉
Oil prices saw a decline on Thursday, driven by reduced fuel demand and increased fuel inventories. WTI crude closed at $72.19 per barrel as gasoline stocks rose significantly by 10.9 million barrels. Distillate stocks also increased by 10.1 million barrels. Despite the drop in crude inventories by 5.5 million barrels, the surge in fuel stocks took precedence. Shipping disruptions in the Red Sea have influenced the dynamics of crude oil supply and demand. 🛢️⛽📉
The US labor market remains robust, with the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits falling to 202,000, the lowest since mid-October. This positive trend reflects a strong labor market, even as the demand for workers has slightly declined. The December jobs report, released today, is expected to show an increase in non-farm payrolls and a slight rise in unemployment compared to November. 📈💼🇺🇸
US ethanol production declined last week. Weekly output of 1.05mil barrels decreased 5.2% on the week but increased 9% vs. the same week last year. Ethanol stocks were pegged at 23.6mil barrels. The print was up marginally compared to the previous week, but -4.3% compared to the same week last year. Implied gasoline demand was -13% compared to the previous week and 15% vs. the same week last year. On average, over the last four weeks, implied US gasoline demand is up marginally vs. the same period last year. See charts below.
Oil prices declined on Thursday. Reduced fuel demand and increased fuel inventories c
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Rainfall in northern Brazil is continuing, with daily showers expected for the next week and beyond. The 5-day forecast indicates wet conditions in some of the driest areas of the country, while the 10-day forecast shows rain covering almost the entire region. This is welcome news for areas that have been experiencing drought conditions. Southern Brazil had been excessively wet in October and November, but dry conditions were affecting central and northern regions. The recent rains are falling where they are needed most. 🌧️🇧🇷
Drought conditions have caused the water level in the Panama Canal to drop significantly, reaching 6 feet below normal. As a result, the Panama Canal Authority has had to limit the daily number of vessels passing through the canal to 24, down from the usual capacity of around 38. To address this issue, the authority is considering two options: creating an artificial lake to pump water into the canal or using cloud seeding to increase rainfall. Both solutions would take time to implement, with the artificial lake requiring congressional approval and a substantial budget. However, many farmers and ranchers are concerned about the potential flooding of their lands if the lake is created. 🚢🌊🇵🇦
The Federal Reserve released minutes from its December meeting, indicating that the benchmark lending rate is likely near its peak. Officials agreed that rates need to remain restrictive for some time, but they anticipate initiating rate cuts this year. The Fed's outlook includes three interest rate cuts in 2024, totaling 0.75%. Futures markets, however, are anticipating six rate cuts in the same year. Strong economic growth and ongoing wage increases could pose challenges to inflation control and the Fed's rate-cutting plans. 💱🏦💼
Oil prices saw a significant increase of over 3% on Wednesday, driven by calls from the US and eleven allies for the Houthis to halt their attacks in the Red Sea. Additionally, protests in Libya disrupted oil production from a field that typically produces 300,000 barrels per day. OPEC's announcement of continued support for oil market stability, despite some skepticism about the voluntary production reduction commitments from its members, also contributed to the rise in prices. WTI crude closed at $72.50 per barrel. 🛢️📈💧
Gas prices are expected to decline in the coming weeks, with the national average potentially dropping below $3.00 per gallon. This dip in prices follows the holiday travel season and is part of the typical seasonal trend. However, the trend usually reverses in mid-to-late February when refineries begin maintenance and transition to cleaner, more expensive fuel blends. Diesel prices have also fallen below $4.00 per gallon, reaching levels last seen during the previous summer. ⛽📉🚗
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0:00 Intro + Corn and Soybean Collapse
2:00 Brazil Estimates and Weather
5:04 "The Funds"
5:48 China/Taiwan
7:46 Red Sea / Iran
8:48 Export Sales
9:44 Stock Market Wins 2023
11:27 Cattle and Outside Markets
Corn and soybean futures saw significant declines on Tuesday, with the Mar24 corn contract dropping over 7 cents per bushel and closing at a life-of-contract low. Meanwhile, the Dec24 corn contract closed below $5.00 for the first time since July. The Mar24 soybean contract also faced a sharp drop, losing more than 24 cents and closing at its lowest level since June. This decline was primarily attributed to improved weather conditions in Brazil, with some analysts also considering a potential slowdown in Chinese demand. 🌽📉🌱
Estimates for Brazil's soybean crop continue to be revised downward. StoneX reduced its projection for this season's Brazilian soybean crop to 152.8 million tons, down from its previous estimate of 161.9 million tons, citing a lack of precipitation as the reason for the reduction. South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier also cut his projection to 151 million tons due to lower yields on early-harvested soybeans. 🇧🇷🌱📉
Large money managers made adjustments in their positions, with a net increase of 10k contracts of corn, 1k contracts of soybeans, and 6k contracts of SRW wheat during the week ending December 26. 📊🌾💰
China's President Xi Jinping reiterated during his New Year's Eve address that he believes China and Taiwan will eventually be reunified, despite Taiwan's insistence on its independence and its upcoming elections on January 13th, which will play a significant role in determining the future of China-Taiwan relations. 🇨🇳🇹🇼🗳️
Iran sent a warship to the Red Sea after the US Navy destroyed three Houthi boats that were attempting to hijack a Maersk shipping vessel. This incident led to Maersk suspending Red Sea transit, and the situation in the region remains tense as various naval forces patrol the area. 🚢🌊🇮🇷🇺🇸
US corn export sales improved, with net sales of 1.2 million metric tons (49 million bushels), driven in large part by Mexican purchases. However, soybean sales were poor, totaling 983,900 metric tons (36 million bushels), with China as the largest buyer. Wheat sales also declined. 🌽🌾🚢
The stock market closed out 2023 with impressive gains, driven by a strong economy, declining inflation, and speculation of reduced interest rates in the coming months. The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq all posted substantial gains for the year, with expectations of continued momentum into 2024, pending Federal Reserve actions. 📈💼🎉📊
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Recent weather forecasts for Brazil indicate a shift towards wetter conditions, with a widespread rain event expected to begin on Saturday and continue through the first week of January. The heaviest rainfall is anticipated in some of the driest parts of Brazilian soybean regions, benefiting crop conditions. However, areas further south, which already have moisture surpluses, will see relatively drier conditions. 🌧️🇧🇷
Argentina's government is proposing to raise export taxes on major grain crops as part of new economic reforms. This move has faced opposition from Argentina's agricultural industry, which believes it contradicts promises made by the new right-wing government. Despite the proposed tax increase, Argentine farmers have made significant planting progress thanks to abundant rainfall, with 79% of the soybean crop and 70% of the corn crop already planted, according to the Buenos Aires grain exchange. 🚜🌾🇦🇷
A Russian mine damaged a Panamanian cargo ship in the Black Sea, injuring two crew members and forcing the ship's captain to run it aground to prevent sinking. The vessel was en route to a Ukrainian port to load grain. Tensions in the Black Sea have escalated due to Ukraine's attacks on Russian forces in Crimea, including an airstrike that destroyed a Russian warship. ⚓🌊🇷🇺🇺🇦
USDA's weekly drought monitor data showed above-normal temperatures in the Corn Belt, with improvements in drought conditions in parts of Missouri, Iowa, and Minnesota due to above-normal precipitation. However, southern Illinois saw worsening drought conditions due to a lack of moisture, with precipitation at just 25% of normal for the month. Heavy precipitation in the High Plains improved drought conditions in eastern Nebraska and eastern Kansas. 🌞🌾🌦️🇺🇸
US ethanol production increased last week, with output at 1.1 million barrels, up 3.4% from the previous week and 7.6% compared to the same week last year. Ethanol stocks were at 23.5 million barrels, up 2.7% from the previous week but down 2.3% from the same week last year. Implied gasoline demand was up 4.7% from the previous week and 5.2% from the same week last year. 🇺🇸🌽🛢️
Gasoline prices are expected to decline in 2024, with the national average projected to drop to $3.38 per gallon, down from $3.51 in the current year. Summer prices are expected to hover around $4.00 a gallon, except in California, where prices could exceed $6.00. The average American household is expected to spend $2,407 on gasoline in 2024, down 2% from 2023 and 12% from 2022. Diesel prices are also predicted to gradually decline in 2024. ⛽📉💰🚗🇺🇸
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Recent 🌧️ in the US brought relief from drought in various regions, including the Corn Belt, Plains, mid-south, and southeast, with 1-2 inches of precipitation. Mississippi River levels are set to rise by 6-7 feet at Memphis, aiding grain transportation.
Brazil's soybean production estimates continue to decline. Crop scout Cordonnier lowered the estimate to 153 million metric tons (mmt) from 155 mmt. USDA and CONAB will provide updated estimates in January, having previously forecasted over 160 mmt.
US hiring is expected to slow in 2024, impacting wage gains and inflation. Projections suggest annual wage gains may drop to 4.3%. December's jobs report is expected to show 170,000 job gains, but early 2024 could average only 80,000 monthly additions.
US bond yields fell after the Treasury Department's $58 billion 5-year Treasury note sale. Markets anticipate an 86% chance the Fed will keep rates steady in January and an 85% probability of a 0.25% rate cut in March. By December 2024, the Fed's main rate could range from 3.75% to 4%.
Stocks closed higher, with the S&P 500 nearing its record high, up 0.14% at 4,781. 📈 The Dow is poised for a 13% yearly gain, the S&P 500 for 24%, and the Nasdaq for 44%. 📊 Uncertainty remains regarding potential Fed rate cuts and their impact on markets. 🤔
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0:00 Intro + Black Sea Attack / Rally
2:11 Rail Crossings Reopened
4:55 Brazil Update / Early Harvest
6:26 "The Funds"
7:24 US Grain Shipment Update
8:36 Cattle on Feed Report
🇺🇦 Ukraine reported destroying a Russian warship in Crimea, with conflicting reports on damage and casualties. The ground war between Ukraine and Russia is at a near standstill, with aid packages stalled in Washington and Europe.
🚆 US-Mexico railroad crossings at Eagle Pass and El Paso, TX, have reopened after being closed due to a surge of migrants. Nearly 10,000 railcars were held up on both sides of the border during the closures.
🌱 Early soybean harvest has started in Brazil, with Mato Grosso farmers harvesting about 1% of the crop. Drought conditions have forced early harvesting, and yields are expected to be the lowest in 40 years.
📊 Large money managers increased their net short position in the corn market while reducing their positions in soybeans. They were net buyers of SRW wheat.
🌽 US soybean shipments were weak last week, down compared to the previous week and the same week last year. Corn shipments increased, while wheat shipments saw a significant increase compared to the previous week and last year.
🐄 Friday's Cattle on Feed report was seen as neutral to bearish for the cattle market, with cattle on feed at 103% of year-ago levels, placements at 98%, and marketings at 93%.
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🌧️ Rain clusters have brought relief to key Brazilian soybean areas, improving crop conditions. However, a drier pattern is expected in the first half of next week before more rain returns from New Year's holiday through January 4th or 5th.
🇦🇷 Recent rainfall has benefited Argentina's soybean crop, with 91% of planted acres receiving optimal moisture. The corn crop, with 59% of planted acres, is also in good to very good condition.
🌾 The latest USDA drought monitor data shows ongoing drought conditions in several US regions, affecting corn, soybeans, wheat, and cattle. Some areas in the Midwest experienced worsening drought conditions due to above-normal temperatures and dry weather.
🚢 Traffic through the Panama Canal has not increased, despite Houthi attacks disrupting Red Sea travel. The Panama Canal previously limited vessel traffic due to low water levels but increased its daily transits earlier this month.
🌽 US corn export sales declined last week, while soybean sales were strong, boosted by recent flash sales. Wheat sales were down, with Mexico as the largest buyer for the week.
📈 The November Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE index) is expected to rise 0.1% on a monthly basis and 3.3% annually. The Federal Reserve is expected to begin cutting rates as early as March.
🎄Please note that the grain markets are closed on Christmas Day and will reopen on Tuesday, December 26th.🎄
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🚂🌽 The Biden administration is facing pressure from agricultural groups and politicians to reopen the US-Mexico railroad crossings that were closed due to an influx of migrants. Operations are expected to return to normal by January, according to a Mexican official.
🌧️ Rainfall has hit key Brazilian soybean areas, providing relief to some regions with moisture deficits. However, the dry period is expected to return early next week before more rain is forecasted around January 2nd.
🌽🚢 Brazil has become China's top corn supplier, supplying 90% of China's corn imports in November. Brazil's corn exports to China have surged this year, while US corn imports by China have been lower due to various factors, including drought-related shipping disruptions.
📉 US ethanol production declined slightly last week, with ethanol stocks increasing. Implied gasoline demand was down compared to the previous week but remains higher than the same period last year.
🚢🛢️ Despite rising tensions in the Red Sea, energy markets have remained relatively stable. Naval deployments in the region aim to deter further Houthi attacks, but experts believe the disruptions will be temporary, and shipping companies will return to using the Suez Canal.
⛽ Gasoline prices have seen an increase, posting their largest one-day gain since August due to Red Sea disruptions. Gasoline prices are expected to trend higher as oil prices remain strong amid the disruptions.
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🌽📉 The nearby Mar24 corn contract reached a life-of-contract low close on Tuesday, closing just below $4.73 per bushel after a 4-cent drop. Logistics issues at the US/Mexico border, Panama Canal, and Red Sea, coupled with a record 2023 US harvest, are contributing factors. Farmers are considered "undersold" compared to a typical year.
🚂🌽 Mexico is facing potential shortages of corn and soybean meal due to this week's rail closures. Mexico's farm lobby, CNA, emphasized the importance of goods and inputs for livestock and industrial uses, estimating less than 9 days' supply of soybean meal and 8 to 20 days' supply of corn. Union Pacific estimates a daily economic impact of $200 million. Mexico accounts for 47% of all US corn export sales this year.
🇧🇷🌱 Poor growing conditions are expected to impact Brazilian soybean production, particularly in Mato Grosso, with a 20% reduction expected compared to last season, according to Aprosoja. USDA and CONAB have also reduced their estimates for Brazil's soybean production, which began the season with higher expectations.
🌽🚗 The EPA has requested White House approval for a rule allowing year-round sales of E15 in select Midwestern states, including Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. The proposal has faced opposition from the oil industry, citing potential supply chain issues and higher gasoline prices.
💰💼 Ukrainian aid has been postponed until 2024, as Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer announced. The aid package has been delayed due to Republican demands for immigration policy changes to be included. The Pentagon warns that funds needed to replace weapons sent to Ukraine will run out by December 30.
If you have any more questions or need further information, feel free to ask! 🚢🌎🛤️📊🇺🇦
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0:00 Intro + Mexico Rail Shutdown
2:58 Reduced Brazil Corn Acreage?
5:52 Red Sea Attacks
7:18 Export Shipments
8:18 Goldman Stock Market Target
9:44 Cattle and Outside Markets
🚂🇺🇸🇲🇽 US-Mexico railroad border crossings temporarily closed due to migrant surge, impacting supply chains for essential commodities like grain, industrial products, and cars.
🌽🇧🇷 Brazilian farmers delay fertilizer purchases for the second corn crop due to drought and soybean planting delays, affecting crop production.
🌱🚢 US soybean shipments improved with 1.4 million metric tons (52 million bushels) inspected for export, showing a +41% increase compared to the previous week but a -28% decrease versus the same week last year. Corn shipments also increased by 31%, totaling 947,418 metric tons (37 million bushels), while wheat shipments decreased by 10%, with 284,792 metric tons (10 million bushels) reported.
📈📊 Goldman Sachs has raised its 2024 forecast for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach 5,100 next year, up from the previous target of 4,700. The S&P 500, currently at 4,740, is just 1.2% below its January 2022 high. The market has seen significant gains since late October, primarily driven by expectations of rate cuts in 2024, with the Fed announcing plans for a 0.75% reduction, while the market anticipates a larger cut of 1.5%.
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USDA Foreign Holdings of US Ag Land Report:
https://www.fsa.usda.gov/Assets/USDA-FSA-Public/usdafiles/EPAS/PDF/2022_afida_annual_report_12_14_23.pdf
🚜 Foreign-Owned US Farmland Surges in 2022:
US farm acres owned by foreign entities grew by more than 8% last year to 43.4 million acres. Canada remains the largest foreign investor, accounting for 32% of foreign-owned acres, while China owns less than 1% of US agricultural land at 350,000 acres. Since 2017, purchases of US farmland by foreign entities have been increasing, averaging over 3 million acres per year. 🇨🇦🇨🇳🏞️
🌱 NOPA Releases November Crush Data:
The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported that its members processed 189.038 million bushels of soybeans in November, the second-largest crush for any month on record. End-of-month soybean oil stocks in November rose for the first time in seven months, reaching 1.214 billion pounds, the highest end-of-month oil supply since August. 🌿📈🌽
🌧️ Rain Returning to Brazil:
Rainfall is expected to return to Brazil this week, providing much-needed relief to central and northern areas that have been experiencing substantial moisture deficits. Daily rainfall is anticipated to continue at least through Saturday. 🇧🇷🌧️🌱
🌽 Biden Administration Provides Win for Ethanol with SAF Tax Credits:
President Joe Biden's administration announced recognition of the Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET) model for companies seeking tax credits from Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). The model paves the way for corn-based ethanol to qualify for SAF tax credits, offering growth opportunities for ethanol producers and farmers. The administration plans to update the methodology by March 1, potentially impacting SAF feedstock requirements. 🌽✈️💳
💼 Large Money Managers Trim Net Short Position in Corn:
In the week ending December 12, "the funds" reduced their net short position in the corn market by 7,000 contracts. Funds were net sellers of 6,000 contracts of soybeans but net buyers of 29,000 contracts of Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat. 📊🌽🌾
📊 USDA Reports Flash Sales of Soybeans:
On Friday, US exporters reported flash sales of 134,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans to China and 447,500 metric tons (16 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery during the current marketing year. However, the US soybean export book remains 20% below the same period last year. 🚢🌱📉
Stay updated with the latest agricultural news and developments! 🌾🌍📰 #Farmland #SoybeanCrush #BrazilRains #Ethanol #Corn #SoybeanSales 🚜🌧️📈🌽✈️📊
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Brazilian Soybean Areas Facing Dry Conditions:
Key Brazilian soybean areas are expected to remain mostly dry through the weekend, leading to crop stress due to abnormally warm temperatures and a lack of rainfall. Rain is forecast to return by Tuesday next week, with central and northern areas expected to receive better amounts through Christmas. The extended Global Forecast System (GFS) suggests additional rainfall for some areas by year-end but may not be reliable.
Ethanol Producers Awaiting SAF Credit Approval:
Ethanol producers are anticipating a victory with Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) tax credits. The Biden administration is expected to approve the Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET) model, allowing ethanol-based SAF to qualify for tax credits. However, the administration is also expected to update the GREET methodology by March 1, potentially impacting the use of corn-based ethanol in SAF. Regulations around SAF feedstocks are expected to tighten.
Record-High Electric Vehicle (EV) Inventories:
US EV inventories on dealer lots have doubled compared to a year ago, resulting in a 114-day supply. Consumers have been deterred from EVs due to their high cost and inadequate charging infrastructure. Major automakers like Ford and GM are reducing production of some EV models. A group of US auto dealers has requested the Biden administration to reduce EV mandates because of the large inventories.
Rainfall in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas:
Rainfall moved over Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas recently, with up to 2.5 inches recorded in parts of the Texas panhandle and northward regions. This rainfall is much needed, as many areas have been experiencing drought conditions to varying degrees. Kansas rated the winter wheat crop at 39% good to excellent in its final crop progress report for the year.
Declining Mortgage Rates:
Mortgage rates in the US have declined for seven consecutive weeks, with the average 30-year mortgage rate falling to 6.95%, the lowest since August. Rates peaked in October at 7.8%. The Fed's forecast of rate cuts in 2024 is expected to push mortgage rates near or below 6%. Lower rates are expected to boost home sales, which have slowed significantly due to rising rates.
US Grain Export Sales:
US corn export sales improved last week, with net sales of 1.4 million metric tons (56 million bushels), up 10% from the previous week. Net soybean sales of 1.1 million metric tons (40 million bushels) were down 23% from the previous week. Net wheat sales were strong, totaling 1.5 million metric tons (55 million bushels), a marketing year high.
Flash Sale of Soybeans Reported by USDA:
US exporters reported a flash sale of 400,000 metric tons (15 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery during the current marketing year. However, the US soybean export book continues to lag behind the same period last year by 20%.
Stay tuned for more updates on these and other market developments! 🌽🚜📉 #SoybeanAreas #EthanolProducers
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🏦📉 Market Update - Fed Rate Decision, PPI Data, South American Weather, Argentina Export Taxes, Ethanol Production, and More 🇺🇸🌽🌦️
🏦 Fed Rate Decision - Rates Held Steady:
The Federal Reserve announced its decision to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. It also signaled at least three rate cuts in 2024, totaling 0.75%. The markets are anticipating more significant rate cuts, with expectations of a 1.5% reduction next year. Following the announcement, stock markets, including the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq, gained 1.4%, with the Dow Jones surpassing 37,000 for the first time.
📊 November PPI Data:
The November Producer Price Index (PPI) revealed that the economy is still cooling. Wholesale prices remained unchanged on a monthly basis, up from a 0.4% decline in October. On an annual basis, prices increased by 0.9%, down from 1.2% in October and lower than the projected 1%. The report has fueled optimism that inflation will continue to decline, supporting expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate reductions in 2024.
🌦️ South American Weather Update:
Most Brazilian soybean areas are expected to remain dry for the next 5–6 days, benefiting production in southern areas but posing challenges for central and northern regions. Rainfall is forecast to return next week, with spotty coverage and variable amounts. Rainfall remains below normal seasonal levels.
🇦🇷 Argentina Export Taxes Proposal:
Argentina's new president, Javier Milei, has proposed an increase in export taxes on certain grains to 15%, excluding soy. Soybean exports are currently taxed at 33%, while wheat and corn exports are taxed at 12%. This proposal follows Argentina's recent currency devaluation and spending cuts.
🍃 US Ethanol Production:
US ethanol production declined slightly last week, with weekly output at 1.07 million barrels. Ethanol stocks increased to 22.1 million barrels, up 3.1% compared to the previous week but down 5% YoY. Implied gasoline demand saw a 4.6% increase compared to the previous week and 6% YoY.
🌱🚢 USDA Reports Flash Sale of Soybeans:
US exporters reported a flash sale of 125,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery during the current marketing year. The US soybean export book continues to lag behind last year, with a 16% deficit for the same period.
Stay tuned for more market developments and insights! #FedRateDecision #PPIData #SouthAmericanWeather #ArgentinaExportTaxes #EthanolProduction 🌐📊🌽🏦
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0:00 Intro + Argentina Currency Situation
3:04 Inflation Update
6:39 GE Testing SAF in Flights
7:44 More Brazil Crop Estimates
9:13 Flash Sale
9:59 Cattle Update
🌾📉 Market Update - Grain Markets Trade Lower, Argentina Currency Devaluation, Inflation Data, and More 🇦🇷💱
📉 Grain Markets Trade Lower:
Grain markets experienced a decline on Wednesday morning.
💱 Argentina Currency Devaluation:
Argentina announced a significant devaluation of its currency, the peso, by 50%, adjusting it to 800 to the US dollar from 400 previously. This move is part of measures to cut the fiscal deficit and address runaway inflation. The devaluation may make Argentina's agricultural products more attractive globally, and export taxes on certain products might be removed once the "economic emergency" concludes.
📈 Inflation Data - November CPI:
Inflation in November slightly cooled, increasing by 3.1% on an annual basis, down from 3.2% in October. On a monthly basis, inflation rose by 0.1%, slightly higher than anticipated. While inflation is gradually decreasing, it remains above the Fed's 2% target. The Fed is expected to maintain unchanged rates, but the uptick in monthly inflation may affect expectations regarding future rate cuts.
✈️ GE Aerospace Tests Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF):
GE Aerospace announced successful testing of ten airplane engine models using 100% SAF made from vegetable oils, waste oils, or fats. GE, a major player in the aviation industry, plans to conduct further extensive testing of SAF to assess its reliability and longevity. US airlines, including American, Delta, and United, have committed to achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.
🌱 Brazil's Soybean Crop Forecast Update:
The Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (Abiove) has revised its estimate for Brazil's soybean crop, lowering it by nearly 3 million tons to 161.9 million tons. This follows previous reductions by the USDA and CONAB. Abiove also increased its estimates for Brazil's soybean exports to 100.2 million tons in 2024 and crushing to 54.5 million tons.
🌽🚢 USDA Reports Flash Sale of Soybeans:
US exporters reported a flash sale of 198,000 metric tons (7 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery during the current marketing year. Since the start of December, exporters have sold a total of 1.05 million metric tons (39 million bushels) of soybeans through seven flash sales.
Stay tuned for market developments and insights! #GrainMarkets #ArgentinaDevaluation #InflationData #SAFTes
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🌱🌐 Agricultural and Economic Highlights: Oversight of Fertilizer Companies, Brazil's Soybean Planting, Sustainable Aviation Fuel Guidance, and CPI Report Expectations 🌾💡
👥🏭 US Senators Call for Oversight of Fertilizer Companies:
US Senators Chuck Grassley and Tammy Baldwin are set to introduce legislation aimed at increasing transparency in fertilizer companies. The bill directs the USDA to investigate pricing transparency, imports, emerging technologies, concentration within the industry, and potential anticompetitive behaviors. The legislation aims to fit into next year's five-year farm bill reauthorization.
🇧🇷🌱 Brazil's Soybean Planting Progress and Crop Outlook:
Brazil's soybean planting, reported by AgRural, reached 91% completion, slightly behind last year's 95% at the same week. AgRural revised its forecast for this season's soybean crop to 159.1 million tons, down from 163.5 million tons, citing excessive heat and insufficient moisture. Additionally, south-central Brazil farmers have planted 95% of the first corn crop for the season.
🛢️🌿 Guidance on Sustainable Aviation Fuel Subsidies Expected:
The Treasury Department is expected to release guidelines on sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) subsidies. The guidance will clarify if SAF made from corn-based ethanol qualifies for subsidies. With increasing electric vehicle sales, the ethanol industry sees SAF as a key avenue for growth.
🚢🌾 US Soybean Shipments and Flash Sale:
US soybean shipments were lackluster last week, with 984,410 metric tons (36 million bushels) inspected for export, down 16% from the previous week and 48% compared to the same week last year. A flash sale of 132,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery during the current marketing year was reported.
💹📊 November Consumer Price Index (CPI) Report:
The November CPI report is anticipated to reveal stable monthly consumer prices for the second consecutive month. On an annual basis, inflation is forecast at 3.1%, slightly lower than October's 3.2%. The Federal Reserve, meeting this week, may consider maintaining rates if inflation remains steady or declines.
📈 Stay informed on agricultural, economic, and market developments! #FertilizerCompanies #BrazilSoybeanPlanting #AviationFuelGuidance #CPIReport 🌍🌾💰
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🌾📊 Agricultural Highlights: USDA Report, Fund Positions, Climate-Friendly Farming, and Ukrainian Aid Resistance 🌱🌐
🇺🇸🌾 USDA Report Insights:
Friday's USDA report brought limited changes, with increased estimates for US corn and wheat exports due to robust export sales. The US soybean balance sheet remained unchanged. Brazil's soybean production estimate was revised to 161 million metric tons (mmt) from the previous 163 mmt, while last year's crop saw a 2 mmt upward revision to 160 mmt. The Brazilian corn production estimate remained steady at 129 mmt. Argentina's corn and soybean crop estimates were unchanged.
📈🌽 Fund Positions in Corn Market:
Large money managers reduced their net short position in the corn market, according to the CFTC's weekly Commitment of Traders data. During the week ending December 5, "the funds" were net buyers of 55,000 contracts of corn and 24,000 contracts of SRW wheat. However, funds were net sellers of 33,000 contracts of soybeans.
🌍🤝 US-UAE Collaboration for Climate-Friendly Farming:
The US and the United Arab Emirates are jointly promoting climate-friendly farming through the Agriculture Innovation Mission for Climate. With funding exceeding $17 billion, the initiative, established in 2021, focuses on expanding agricultural research, implementing sustainable farming practices, and reducing methane emissions. Partners include Google, Bunge, and The Nature Conservancy.
🇺🇦💰 Challenges in Ukrainian Aid Proposal:
Efforts to provide additional US aid to Ukraine face resistance, especially among Republicans. Support is waning, and Republicans are seeking modifications to immigration and border policies as a condition for funding. Democrats remain committed to open border policies and view funding for Ukraine as crucial to prevent potential catastrophic consequences.
🚢🌾 USDA Flash Sales to China and Unknown Destinations:
USDA reported flash sales, including 136,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans to China, 110,000 metric tons (4 million bushels) of soft red winter wheat to China, and 165,000 metric tons (6 million bushels) of corn to unknown destinations, further highlighting global trade dynamics.
📊 Stay updated on the latest agricultural developments! #USDAreport #FundPositions #ClimateFarming #UkraineAid #USDAFlashSales 🌾🤝🌱
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🌾🌍 Agricultural Insights: Interest Rates and Emissions, Brazil's Crop Projections, USDA Reports, Argentine Soybeans, and US Export Sales 🌱📊
🏦 Rabobank's Emission-Linked Interest Rates:
Rabobank may increase interest rates for farmers and rural businesses if they fail to meet greenhouse gas emission targets. Offering sustainability-linked loans, the bank encourages clients to achieve specific emission goals, with successful efforts resulting in interest rate discounts. Rabobank believes most farmers can control emissions with the right tools.
🇧🇷 Brazil's Adjusted Crop Projections:
The Brazilian government, through CONAB, has reduced its soybean estimate to 160.2 million tons, citing unfavorable planting conditions. This adjustment, down from the previous projection of 162.4 million tons, still represents a 4% increase from the last season's crop. The corn estimate was also revised down to 118.5 million tons, a 10% decline from the previous season.
🌽🌱 USDA Crop Production and WASDE Reports Today:
The USDA is set to release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports, with expectations of minimal changes to US balance sheets. While adjustments for the 2023 US crop projections may be deferred until January, some activity regarding South America is anticipated, particularly in smaller production estimates for Brazilian corn and soybeans.
🌧️ Improved Soybean Conditions in Argentina:
Argentina's soybean conditions have improved with abundant rainfall, as reported by the Buenos Aires grain exchange. Approximately 98% of Argentina's soybean crop is in normal to excellent condition. The country has planted 52% of the expected 42.7 million soybean acres, with a forecasted crop reaching 50 million tons. Corn planting progress is also at 40% of the expected 42.7 million acres.
🌽🌾 US Export Sales Update:
US corn export sales declined last week, with net sales of 1.3 million metric tons (51 million bushels). Soybean sales were also down by 20%, totaling 1.5 million metric tons (56 million bushels), with China being the largest buyer. Wheat sales reached 356,400 metric tons (13 million bushels), with Taiwan as the largest buyer for the week. A flash sale of 121,000 metric tons (4 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations was reported.
📈 Stay informed on the latest agricultural developments! #Rabobank #BrazilCropProjections #USDARports #ArgentinaSoybeans #USExportSales 🌾📊🌱
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0:00 Intro + Brazil Update
2:37 China Buys MORE Wheat
4:42 Russia is in Good Shape
5:43 Ethanol Production Increases
7:06 Suez Canal Accident
7:49 Jamie Dimon Hates Bitcoin
🌐🚢🌾 Global Trade & Market Highlights: Record Brazilian Exports, SRW Wheat Sales, Russian Crop Conditions, Ethanol Production, Suez Canal Incident, and Cryptocurrency Debate 📊🌎🛢️
🇧🇷 Record Brazilian Corn and Soybean Exports:
Brazil is expected to achieve record-high soybean and corn exports, driven by strong Chinese demand and bumper crops. Anec, a prominent trade group, projects Brazilian corn exports to reach 55.95 million tons (up 25% from last year), and soybean exports to reach 101.2 million tons (up 30% from last year and almost 17% higher than the previous record).
🌾 SRW Wheat Flash Sales to China Continue:
USDA reports another flash sale of 372,000 metric tons (14 million bushels) of soft red winter wheat to China. This marks the third SRW wheat flash sale to China this week, totaling 1.01 million metric tons (37 million bushels). Additionally, US exporters sold 136,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans to China.
🌾 Russian Winter Crop Conditions:
Russia's winter crops are in better condition than last year, with only 4% rated as poor and thin. This rating is below the five-year average of 8%. Russia's agriculture ministry anticipates the second-largest crop on record, maintaining its position as the world's top wheat exporter.
🍃 US Ethanol Production Increases:
Weekly US ethanol production rises to 1.08 million barrels, reflecting a 6.4% increase compared to the prior week and a 5.7% rise year-over-year. Ethanol stocks stand at 21.4 million barrels, slightly up from the previous week but down 6.5% from the same week last year. Implied gasoline demand shows a 3.2% increase week-over-week and a 1.8% rise compared to the same week last year.
🚢 Suez Canal Incident:
A ship collision occurred in the Suez Canal as a containership struck a floating bridge in the eastern lane. Tugboats assisted in pulling the damaged ship, which experienced rudder issues. Ship traffic continued with rerouted vessels. The ship, traveling from Singapore to the Netherlands, can carry about 9,000 containers.
💱 Cryptocurrency Debate:
JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon advocates for banning cryptocurrencies, stating that bitcoin and others should be shut down. During a Senate hearing, Dimon and other bank CEOs suggested subjecting crypto companies to the same regulations as large financial institutions. While opposing cryptocurrencies, JP Morgan Chase is actively involved in blockchain technology, powering cryptocurrencies.
📈 Stay updated on key developments in global trade and markets! #BrazilExports
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0:00 Intro + USDA Preview
2:44 MORE Wheat Sales to China
5:30 Brazil is Still Dry
6:37 Panama Canal Remains Restrictive
8:06 Crude Oil Prices Decline
9:54 Interest Rates Drop
11:24 Cattle Rebound
📈🌾 Market Insights: USDA Reports, SRW Wheat Sales, Brazil Weather, Panama Canal Woes, and Economic Trends 🌐🚢
📊 Upcoming USDA Reports:
The USDA is set to release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports on Friday. The trade anticipates minimal changes to US balance sheets, with expectations for adjustments in South America's production estimates, particularly for Brazilian corn and soybean crops.
🌾 SRW Wheat Flash Sale to China:
USDA reports another flash sale of 198,000 metric tons (7 million bushels) of US soft red winter wheat to China for delivery in the current marketing year. This marks the second flash sale of SRW wheat to China this week, totaling 638,000 metric tons (23 million bushels). SRW and HRW futures have seen six consecutive sessions of higher closes.
🇧🇷 Brazil Weather Update:
Drier-than-normal conditions persist in many parts of Brazil, with rainfall over the next 10 days expected to maintain the status quo. Northern and central Brazil face below-normal rainfall, while the south maintains a moisture surplus. The forecast, seen as "non-threatening" for now, has implications for soybean price action.
🚢 Panama Canal Challenges Continue:
Severe drought in Panama continues to impact container shipping through the Panama Canal. Despite unexpected rainfall, drought conditions persist, reducing canal crossings from 36 to 25, with an expected further decrease to 18 by February. Non-booked vessels are experiencing longer wait times, currently averaging 11.7 days.
🛢️ Oil Prices Decline on OPEC+ Doubts:
Oil prices have fallen amid demand concerns and uncertainty surrounding OPEC+ supply cuts. Brent crude dropped 1.1% to $77.18 per barrel, and WTI crude declined 1.5% to $72.24 per barrel. Investors question the full implementation of voluntary supply reductions by OPEC+, leading to market pressure amid lackluster demand.
💼 Job Openings Impact Treasury Yields:
Reduced job openings have caused 10-year Treasury yields to fall below 4.2%. The data reflects the lowest job openings since 2021. However, concerns arise over market anticipation of rate cuts from the Fed, prompting advisories to step back from longer-term maturity bonds.
📈 Stay informed on evolving market dynamics! #USDAReports #WheatSales #BrazilWeather #Pana
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0:00 Intro + Big Wheat Sale to China
3:11 Brazil Crop Update
5:50 Soybean Shipments Decline
7:37 Canada Crop Update
8:40 Gold Rallies to All-Time High
🌾🚢 Trade Highlights: SRW Wheat Sale to China, Brazilian Planting Pace, and Gold's Record Surge 🌐🌾
🌾 SRW Wheat Flash Sale to China:
USDA reports a substantial flash sale of 440,000 metric tons (16 million bushels) of US soft red winter wheat to China for delivery in the current marketing year. This marks the largest daily SRW sale to China in recent years, with a total of 951,000 metric tons (35 million bushels) since August.
🌱 Brazilian Soybean Planting Progress:
AgRural notes that Brazilian soybean planting is behind last year's pace, reaching 85% completion as of the latest update. While southern Brazil shows notable progress, northern regions grapple with hot and dry conditions, hindering planting. AgRural adjusts its soybean crop projection to 159.1 million tons, down from the previous estimate of 163.5 million tons.
🚢 US Soybean Shipments Decline:
US soybean shipments for the week ending November 30 dropped to 1.1 million metric tons (41 million bushels), a -30% change compared to the previous week and a 47% decrease compared to the same week last year. In contrast, corn shipments surged by 183% to 1.2 million metric tons (46 million bushels). Wheat shipments were poor at 187,955 metric tons (7 million bushels).
🍁 Canadian Crop Updates:
Statistics Canada releases updated crop estimates, revealing better-than-expected Canadian wheat and canola crops due to late-summer rainfall. All-wheat production is forecasted at 32 million tons, with spring wheat harvesting at 24.8 million tons (up 10% from the previous estimate) and hard red winter wheat at 4 million tons.
🪙 Gold Hits All-Time High:
Gold reaches a new all-time high at $2,135.39 per ounce, surging 3% in response to recent Fed comments, indicating potential rate cuts. The precious metal's rally since October, up 14%, is attributed to decreasing Treasury yields and the dollar as expectations of US rate cuts rise.
📊 Stay tuned for more updates on global trade dynamics! #TradeNews #BrazilianSoybeans #WheatExports #GoldPrices 🌐🌾
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🌐📊 Market Insights: Money Manager Positions, Brazilian Crop Updates, Panama Canal Woes, and Rate Expectations 💹🚢
📉 Money Managers Increase Short Positions:
In the latest CFTC data, large money managers expanded their net short position in the corn market. The net short of 212k contracts, the highest since mid-2020, reflects a notable trend. Funds also sold 15k contracts of soybeans and 7k contracts of SRW wheat during the week, as seen in the Fund Tracker charts.
🌱 Brazilian Crop Projections Adjusted:
StoneX revises its estimate for Brazil's soybean crop to 161.9 million tons, down from the earlier projection of 165.03 million tons. This follows reductions by the USDA (163 million tons) and CONAB (162.4 million tons). StoneX also trims forecasts for Brazil's first and second corn crops, with projections at 26.45 million tons and 97.33 million tons, respectively.
🚢 Panama Canal Challenges Impact US Grain Exports:
Low water levels on the Panama Canal, resulting from drought, pose a threat to US grain exports. The canal's limitations have prompted rerouting of US grain shipments through the Suez Canal, adding costs and approximately 10 days of travel to Asian destinations. While the US PNW market is strong, capacity remains limited.
🌱 Flash Sales of US Soybeans:
USDA reports flash sales of 132,000mt (5 million bushels) of soybeans to China and 198,000mt (7 million bushels) to unknown destinations for delivery during the current marketing year. Despite these sales, the US soybean export book is running 17% below the same period last year.
💹 Inflation, Interest Rates, and Market Expectations:
Fed Chair Jerome Powell asserts that elevated interest rates will persist as long as inflation does not decisively approach the Fed's 2% target. Despite market expectations of rate cuts as early as March 2024, Powell and other officials haven't signaled a shift. The Dow Jones, responding to rate-cut expectations, has gained over 8% in the past month.
📈 Stay informed as market dynamics unfold! #CommodityMarkets #BrazilianCrops #PanamaCanal #Inflation #InterestRates 🌐🌾
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🌽📈 Market Highlights: Corn Rally, Meat Advocacy at COP28, and Soybean Sales Surge 🥩🌍
🌽 Corn Futures Surge:
Corn futures witnessed a rally on Thursday, with the Mar24 contract gaining 7 cents per bushel, and the Dec23 contract, now in delivery, seeing a 12-cent increase. The market was buoyed by robust weekly US export sales, making US corn more competitive in the global market. The Dec24 contract maintained a trade above $5 per bushel this week.
🥩 Meat Advocates at COP28:
Major meat companies, including JBS, plan to advocate for meat as environmentally beneficial at COP28, the UN climate change conference. The focus is on promoting meat as sustainable and highlighting carbon-friendly production practices. While the conference emphasizes the impact of methane from agriculture on climate change, the EPA notes that agriculture contributes only 18% of global greenhouse gas emissions, compared to the energy sector's 73%.
🌱 Brazilian Soybean Crop Outlook:
Consultancy firm Patria projects a decline in Brazil's soybean crop to 150.67 million tons, down from last season's 154.1 million tons. This reduction is among the most significant cuts by any private group this season. Patria also lowers its estimate for Brazil's second corn crop to 82.45 million tons, an 18 million-ton decrease from the previous season.
📊 Strong US Export Sales:
US corn export sales were robust last week, hitting a marketing-year high with net sales of 1.9 million metric tons (76 million bushels). Net soybean sales surged by 97% from the previous week, totaling 1.9 million metric tons (70 million bushels), with China as the leading buyer. Wheat sales also increased notably, reaching 622,800 metric tons (23 million bushels), with China as the primary wheat buyer.
🌱 Flash Sale of US Soybeans:
On Thursday, the USDA reported a flash sale of 134,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of US soybeans to China for delivery during the current marketing year. Despite this, the accumulated book of US soybean export sales is running 17% below last year's pace.
📈 Stay tuned for more market insights! #CornRally #MeatAdvocacy #SoybeanSales #GlobalMarkets 🌐🌾
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0:00 Intro + 12k Subs
0:42 Vilsack and China Corn Demand
3:26 Wheat Rally
6:30 SAF Guidance
7:57 Ethanol Production Update
9:10 OPEC Cuts?
10:27 GDP
🌾 Ag & Economic Briefing: Vilsack's Call for Diversification, Wheat Rally, and Economic Trends 🌍📊
🚜 Vilsack Urges Market Diversification:
Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack addresses a 20% dip in US corn exports to China, prompting the launch of a $1.2 billion Regional Agricultural Promotion Program to diversify markets. He foresees increased Chinese corn purchases in the future.
🌾 Wheat Futures Soar:
Wheat futures, led by the Mar24 Kansas City contract, spiked over 16 cents amid speculation about Chinese demand and Russian export concerns.
✈️ SAF Guidelines Boost Ethanol Industry:
Anticipated Treasury Department guidelines on sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production, expected by year-end, aim to ease subsidies for corn-based ethanol, supporting ethanol industry growth.
🌽 Ethanol Production Update:
US ethanol production dropped to 1.01 million barrels, down 1.2% weekly. Ethanol stocks decreased, while implied gasoline demand fluctuates.
🛢️ OPEC+ Considers Cuts, Oil Prices Rise:
OPEC+ mulls 1 million bpd oil production cuts, driving WTI crude to nearly $78 per barrel and Brent crude below $83 per barrel.
📉 US Economic Trends:
Despite a robust 5.2% GDP growth in Q3, signs of a slowing economy emerge. Hiring slows, and higher interest rates impact spending, forecasting a 1-2% Q4 GDP.
📈 Stay updated on key developments! #AgNews #EconomicTrends #WheatRally #EthanolProduction 🌐🌾
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🌍 Global Economic Insights: Brazilian Soybean Estimate Drops, Russian Grain Export Concerns, and More! 🌾🌐
🇧🇷 Brazilian Soybean Update:
Breaking news from MB Agro reveals a significant adjustment in Brazil's soybean production estimate. Drought conditions in Mato Grosso have led MB Agro to lower projections to 155 million tons, a substantial 10 million tons below the initial forecast. The 2024 soybean export potential has also been revised down to 96 million tons.
🇷🇺 Russian Grain Export Watch:
In a potential move that could impact global grain markets, Russia considers a ban on grain exports if supplies fall below 10 million metric tons, according to Russian media outlet Izvestia. Despite assurances from the agricultural ministry about ample reserves, the situation warrants attention. Details in the wheat section below.
🌾 Russian Wheat Production:
Agritel reports a potential slight decline in Russia's wheat production for 2024, projecting around 90 million tons. The forecast, while slightly lower than the record-breaking 2022 harvest, would still maintain total wheat supply above 100 million tons, supported by a bumper crop of winter and spring wheat.
🌱 US Soybean Flash Sale:
On the trade front, the USDA reported a flash sale of 123,300 metric tons (5 million bushels) of US soybeans to unknown destinations. The accumulated book of US soybean export sales remains 20% below last year's pace.
🚗 Auto Industry Pressures Biden:
Nearly 3,900 US auto dealers are urging President Biden to reconsider stringent electric vehicle mandates. Dealers argue that customer reluctance is rooted in high costs, lengthy charging times, and reduced range in extreme weather. The proposed regulations are part of Biden's plan to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.
🏡 US Housing Market Dynamics:
Despite rising interest rates, US home prices continued to climb in September, increasing by 3.9% year-over-year. The surge is juxtaposed with a rise in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate, impacting home sales. However, a shortage of homes on the market has sustained prices. As rates ease, there's a slight uptick in mortgage demand, while national median rent dipped by 0.9% from October to November.
📊 Stay informed on global economic shifts! #GlobalEconomy #SoybeanMarket #GrainExports #HousingMarket #ElectricVehicles 🌏📈
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agriculture #farming
0:00 Intro
0:27 Corn and Wheat Selloff
1:14 The Farmer is Undersold
3:48 Fund Positioning
4:42 Brazil Update
5:59 Export Inspections
6:57 Biden Supply Chain Council
8:07 Cattle Collapse
🌾 Market Snapshot: Corn & Wheat Hit Lows, Cattle Futures Drop 📉🌽🐄
📊 Corn & Wheat Decline:
US corn and wheat futures hit fresh lows on Monday, with Dec23 contracts reaching $4.54/bushel and $5.88/bushel, respectively. Speculative selling, lack of a bullish catalyst, and December basis contracts contributed to the selloff.
📈 Money Managers Go Bearish:
Large money managers increased their net short position in corn, selling 27k contracts. Soybeans and SRW wheat also saw bearish trends, as highlighted in the Fund Tracker charts.
🇧🇷 Brazil's Soybean Planting Slowdown:
Brazil's 2023/2024 soybean planting is the slowest in eight years, with only 74% completed. Adverse weather conditions are impacting regions differently, affecting both soybean and corn planting.
🚢 US Soybean Shipments Dip:
Soybean shipments declined by 12% (1.4mmt) compared to the previous week. Corn and wheat shipments also experienced decreases, impacting export dynamics.
🌐 Biden Addresses Supply Chains:
President Biden announced a new White House Council on Supply Chain Resilience to tackle issues contributing to inflation. The first report is due by the end of 2024.
🐮 Cattle Futures in Retreat:
Cattle futures, especially feeder cattle, hit lows not seen in months, driven by fund selling and panic short hedging. Despite challenges, the overall cattle market outlook remains bullish.
📈 Stay updated on market dynamics! #Commodities #MarketUpdate #Agriculture #CattleMarket 🌍📊
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agriculture #farming
0:00 Introduction
0:28 Brazil Crops & Weather
2:38 Cash on the Sidelines, Commodities?
5:52 HRW Wheat Rains
6:53 Flash Sales
7:43 Ethanol Production
8:40 Export Sales
10:06 Cattle Update
🌾 Breaking Agribusiness News! Brazilian Soybean Forecast Slashed! 📉
Agribusiness giants Safras & Mercado and Hedge Point have cut their 2023/2024 Brazilian soybean estimates due to harsh growing conditions. Safras now projects 161.4 million tons, down from 163.3 million, while Hedge Point lowered to 160.1 million tons from 162.3 million. Check out the latest Brazil weather maps for insights.
💸 Record Cash Balances Alert! Investors on the Move! 💼
November sees a record $5.76 trillion in cash balances. Explore charts for potential market shifts as investors eye opportunities amidst booming US equity and bond markets.
🌾 US HRW Wheat Country Gets Relief! Rain and Snow Bless Kansas! ☔❄️
Northern Oklahoma and central Kansas receive vital rain and snow, offering relief to dry conditions. Kansas wheat crop struggles with just a 33% good to excellent rating. Dive into the map for a detailed overview.
🌽🌾 USDA Reports Flash Sales! Focus on Wheat, Corn, and Soybeans! 📈
USDA reports flash sales, including wheat to China, corn to unknown destinations, and soybeans to China and unknown destinations for the 2023/2024 marketing year.
🛢️ Ethanol Production Shifts! Weekly Output Dips, Stocks Rise! ⛽
US ethanol production dips 2.3%, stocks reach 21.65 million barrels. Implied gasoline demand falls 5.2%. Explore charts for insights into ethanol production dynamics.
🌽🚢 US Export Sales Update! Soybean Sales Plummet, Corn and Wheat Fluctuate! 📉
US soybean export sales drop 75%. Corn and wheat sales fluctuate, with Mexico leading corn purchases and Japan in wheat transactions.
📆 Important Reminder! Thursday Marks First Notice Day for December Grain Futures! ⏰
As Thursday approaches, review and manage open positions for December grain futures.
Stay tuned for more agribusiness updates! 🌾🌍 Don't forget to like, share, and subscribe for the latest insights! 🚜🔔 #Agribusiness #BrazilianSoybean #MarketUpdate 🌱📊
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farming #agriculture
🌾 Explore the future of US agriculture with the latest USDA projections for 2024: 91.0M acres for corn and 87.0M for soybeans. 📊 Watch the corn/soybean ratio for potential shifts in plantings. In Brazil, fluctuating rainfall adds uncertainty to soybean production. 🌱 Discover the challenges and opportunities in carbon capture as Wolf Carbon Solutions withdraws its pipeline permit. ⚡ Vibra Energia is driving the expansion of corn-based ethanol in Brazil's northern states, revolutionizing the biofuel landscape. 🚗💨 Stay in the know about the hurdles facing electric vehicle production amid a decline in crucial metals. Get the scoop on the Federal Reserve's cautious approach to future rate hikes. 📈 Stay informed, stay ahead!
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Trump proposal mentioned in the video: https://www.donaldjtrump.com/videos/agenda47-president-trumps-new-trade-plan-to-protect-american-workers
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Pete Meyer from S&P Global joins Joe to discuss this week's EPA news and the US soybean crush expansion.
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Paul Winters of Clean Fuels Alliance America joins Joe to discuss today's EPA proposals.
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Initial US winter wheat ratings were the 2nd worst on record, seasonally.
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Russian missiles struck facilities near the Odessa port over the weekend.
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US farmers are slated to plant more soybeans than corn for only the 3rd time ever.
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Chris Barron from AgView Solutions joins Joe to discuss 2022 corn and soybean budgets.
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Shay @ AgView Solutions: agronguy@gmail.com
corn #inflation #farming
Sorry...we have some bad weather in the area again this morning. Audio issues should be resolved tomorrow!
Chris Barron joins Joe for an update on the 2022 corn & soybean budget situation.
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Ken Morrison joins Joe to discuss the Phase One trade deal with China.
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Chris Barron of Ag View Solutions joins Joe to discuss 2022 budgets.
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
DuWayne Bosse from Bolt Marketing joins Joe to discuss the report and a possible increase in corn acreage.
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Must-listen episode for all farmers! Dr. Richard Sandor joins Joe to discuss a variety of topics.
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
USDA File: https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/AgInDrought.pdf
Correction: Nasdaq did NOT post all-time highs yesterday. Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
US soybean stocks/use @ 2.6%...NOT wheat.
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Joe is joined by special guest Ken Morrison to discuss the influence of large speculators in the grain markets.
Joe discusses some of the problems associated with basis contracts and some potential solutions.
Joe attempts to explain and simplify the process of capturing carry as a grain marketer.
Volatility remains high across financial markets. Joe hops from market to market, discussing the factors at play.
Joe discusses the events of the week including coronavirus, crude oil, grain sales to China, etc.
Fear regarding the coronavirus and its spread has resulted in chaotic markets. Joe discusses the decision making process in times of fear and panic.
It's been a chaotic start to the week in financial markets around the world. Joe discusses.
Joe discusses Monday's sharp sell-off in the stock market and the similar reaction in the grain markets.
Joe discusses USDA's annual Outlook Forum. The government released projections regarding corn and soybean production, demand, carryouts, etc.
Joe discusses the trade deal, coronavirus, African Swine Fever, and potential ag purchases.