Chris Hurt – farmdoc daily: Recent Episodes
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The farmdoc daily website offers research-based analysis for farmers, educators, journalists, traders, market analysts, and policy-makers around the globe.
Diversified grain and livestock farms were once the model of U.S. agriculture. Farms often had crop and animal enterprises to help capture their complementary nature such as spreading the use of family labor throughout the year and recycling animal waste…
Looking back a decade or so, the high feed price era from 2007 to 2013 caused downsizing of the beef industry. Beef cow numbers reached a low in 2014 which resulted in record high finished cattle prices near $148 per…
The pork outlook started this year on a downbeat, then in March and April markets recognized that African swine fever in China could cause global pork shortages and lean futures and industry optimism sailed upward. Summer lean futures exceeded $100,…
Hog prices have been struggling so far this year. USDA reports that live prices in January and February have averaged below $40 for the first time in over a decade. In February, USDA estimated live prices were $39.04 per hundredweight,…
The U.S. pork industry has been expanding the breeding herd and growing since mid-2014. The rate of breeding herd expansion peaked in early 2018 at a 3.5 percent annual growth rate. Financial losses and heightened uncertainties from trade tariffs have…
Pork producers are expected to struggle with hog prices below costs of production through the winter. Record pork production and trade disputes continue to be the near-term drag on prices. However, lean hog futures are more optimistic for spring and…
The pork outlook looked bleak in August. Fear of large pork supplies and Mexican and Chinese tariffs on U.S. pork exports appeared disastrous to hog prices. At that time, my forecast was for losses of $40 or more per head…
The pork industry appears to be headed for a period of large losses in which excess pork supplies force prices below costs of production. In addition, demand will likely be weakened by reduced exports with tariffs in place on U.S.…
Large pork supplies, rising costs, and potential trade retaliation from both Mexico and China continue to cast a shadow over the pork industry. Losses are expected for the rest of 2018 and 2019. Those losses will be small this summer,…
The 2018 outlook early this year was for modest profitability. Now, it has shifted to losses. The reasons are clear. Higher costs and lost exports as China has implemented a 25 percent tariff on U.S. pork that goes into effect…