Excess Returns: Recent Episodes

Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau, partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics, including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing and behavioral finance, with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors, all in twenty minutes or less per episode.

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Warren Pies joins Excess Returns to discuss why he believes we’ve entered a “Debasement Regime,” what that means for investors, and how it differs from the post-GFC deflationary era. He explains the psychology behind this shift, how it’s changing market behavior, and what it means for asset allocation, gold, bonds, small caps, and the Federal Reserve. This conversation covers macro strategy, portfolio construction, and how investors can adapt to a world focused on protecting purchasing power rather than principal.

Main topics covered
• The shift from deflation to debasement and what defines this new regime
• Why protecting purchasing power is replacing the fear of losing principal
• Fiscal policy, deficits, and how politics drive the debasement dynamic
• The cyclical vs. secular forces shaping markets today
• Labor market analysis and the idea of “malignant stasis”
• How bonds fit in a debasement era and when they hedge equities again
• Valuations, bubbles, and why Warren sees room for the S&P 500 to rise further
• Gold as the key debasement asset and how to manage the trend
• Portfolio construction in a 60/40-is-dead world
• AI, productivity, and the longer-term implications for growth and inflation
• What could ultimately break the debasement regime

Timestamps
00:00 Debasement vs. deflation and the new investor mindset
07:40 Fiscal deficits, policy shortcuts, and the debasement channel
10:25 Reacceleration or illusion: the cyclical economic outlook
16:42 The labor market’s “malignant stasis” and what it signals
21:17 How Warren values bonds and equities in this environment
29:34 Bond vigilantes and the likelihood of a true bond revolt
34:00 Valuations, bubbles, and the path to S&P 7,000
38:27 Why small caps remain a short against large caps
41:37 Value stocks, energy, and timing hard asset rotations
45:08 Gold’s breakout and how to manage the position
50:00 Portfolio construction in a debasement era
54:32 AI’s potential to reshape productivity and demographics
57:13 What could end the debasement regime
59:46 Managing risk with technicals and conviction with fundamentals

Andy Constan returns to Excess Returns to break down today’s macro environment using his Four-Pillar Framework — growth, inflation, risk premia, and flows. Drawing on lessons from his time at Bridgewater and Brevan Howard, Andy explains how he blends systematic and discretionary approaches to form a clearer picture of markets. He discusses the AI-driven CapEx boom, the economic effects of tariffs, Fed independence under Trump, and why the current setup could produce extreme outcomes in either direction.

Topics covered:

Systematic vs. discretionary macro investing
Andy’s Four-Pillar Framework: growth, inflation, risk premia, and flows
How AI CapEx is driving growth — and what happens when it stops
Tariffs, policy shifts, and their impact on inflation and growth
The Fed’s independence and what it means for markets
Risk premia, volatility, and asset allocation in uncertain environments
How major flows and corporate buybacks shape market direction
Why Andy sees a “digital” macro environment with binary outcomes

Timestamps:
00:00 Intro and setup
02:00 Systematic vs. discretionary macro investing
14:00 The Four-Pillar Framework explained
22:00 Growth outlook and AI-driven CapEx boom
33:00 The real impact of tariffs on the economy
39:00 Thinking in probabilities and constructing macro portfolios
40:00 Fed independence and policy alignment
47:00 Labor market dynamics and AI uncertainty
48:30 Risk premia and asset allocation
56:00 Flows, buybacks, and corporate debt
01:00:00 What Andy’s watching next
01:06:00 Why macro outcomes have never been more digital

In this episode of Excess Returns, macro strategist Julian Brigden of MI2 Partners joins the show to break down today’s volatile market landscape. Brigden discusses why he believes we’re in one of the most fertile environments for macro investors in decades, the forces driving dollar weakness, inflation, and capital rotation, and how investors can position amid shifting policies, labor constraints, and AI’s uncertain impact. He also explains the risks of U.S. exceptionalism, the fragility of equity markets, and why he’s long everything not tied to the U.S.

Topics covered:

The role of macro as a “supporting actor” that becomes essential at tops and bottoms
Why this may be the best macro environment in 40 years
The policy and market implications of tariffs, immigration, and a weaker dollar
Positioning for U.S. underperformance and the case for international assets
How Brigden uses price confirmation and technical signals in his process
The dollar’s impact on equity and sector leadership
Inflation, labor markets, and the “no firing, no hiring” phenomenon
Why AI’s economic impact will take longer than expected
The probabilities of recession, inflation, and soft landing scenarios
Fiscal dominance, debt, and the future of financial repression
Why bonds are “a crap place to have your cash”
The fragile reflexive cycle of passive investing and U.S. equities
Lessons for individual investors about thinking independently and avoiding industry “cheerleaders”

Timestamps:
00:00 Macro at extremes and U.S. underperformance risk
02:00 How Brigden uses macro analysis to time markets
06:00 Why this is a generational macro opportunity
08:00 Tariffs, growth, and the policy shift under Trump
12:00 Price confirmation and process discipline
15:00 The case for non-U.S. assets and sector rotation
20:00 Inflation waves and the labor market’s fragility
26:00 AI, uncertainty, and hiring hesitation
36:00 Recession vs. reacceleration probabilities
42:00 The debt problem and fiscal dominance
47:00 Sector positioning and the weak dollar playbook
51:00 Passive flows and market reflexivity
56:00 The hyper-financialized U.S. economy
01:00:00 AI, equity valuations, and risk of disappointment
01:01:00 Lessons for investors and independent thinking

Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner at Fairlead Strategies, joins us for her quarterly technical outlook on markets, sectors, and asset classes. In this episode, Katie breaks down what her indicators are showing for equities, discusses the implications of new DeMark signals on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, and explores opportunities across sectors like healthcare, utilities, and energy. She also analyzes key macro charts including gold, oil, Treasury yields, and the dollar, and explains how investors can use technical analysis to manage risk and identify trends heading into year-end.

Main topics covered:
• The current technical setup for the S&P 500 and how Katie reads market momentum
• The role of moving averages, MACD, and DeMark indicators in her process
• Breadth, sentiment, and seasonal factors influencing market direction
• Why the AI and tech rally may be entering a more selective phase
• Sector analysis: healthcare, utilities, energy, and consumer staples
• Trends in financials and what’s driving sector rotations
• Overview of the Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF (TACK) and its positioning
• The broadening theme, mega-cap leadership, and market concentration
• Technical outlooks for gold, oil, Treasury yields, and the dollar
• How correlations between bonds and equities are evolving
• Key risk metrics Katie is watching into year-end

Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and S&P 500 setup
04:15 How Katie uses key technical indicators
07:00 Reading trend strength through moving averages
10:00 Balancing short- and long-term signals
12:00 Seasonality and sentiment in the current market
15:00 DeMark sell signals on the S&P and Nasdaq
18:30 What a correction could mean for the AI trade
20:20 Sector rotation and using technicals for allocation
23:30 Opportunities in healthcare and energy
25:30 Utilities and countertrend setups
27:20 Consumer staples and defensive positioning
29:00 Financials and recent weakness
31:00 Inside the TACK ETF and its strategy
34:10 Market breadth and mega-cap concentration
37:00 Gold’s breakout and sell discipline using technicals
41:00 Oil’s setup and resistance levels
43:15 10-year Treasury yield analysis
46:20 The dollar index and its key levels
48:15 Relationship between stocks and bonds
51:10 Final takeaways and closing

In this episode of Excess Returns, we’re joined by Rob Thummel of Tortoise Capital to discuss the critical intersection of energy and technology. Rob explains why “electricity is the new oil” as AI and data center demand reshape global power needs. We explore the future energy mix, investment opportunities across natural gas, nuclear, and renewables, and how investors can position for decades of transformation in the energy ecosystem.

Topics covered:

How AI is driving a new era of electricity demand
The evolving U.S. energy mix: oil, gas, nuclear, and renewables
Why electricity is becoming the new oil
The scale of power needed to support AI and data centers
Opportunities and challenges in renewables and battery storage
The resurgence of nuclear and the role of natural gas
How U.S. shale transformed inflation and global energy markets
Energy infrastructure and why it offers steady returns
How the TCAI ETF captures the “AI infrastructure” opportunity
Risks and resilience of the U.S. power grid
Lessons from 30 years investing in energy

Timestamps:
00:00 Electricity is the new oil and the future of AI energy demand
02:00 The evolving U.S. energy mix and global demand growth
08:00 Why electricity, not oil, will power the next economic era
11:00 How much power AI and data centers will need
15:00 Can renewables meet rising energy demand?
20:00 The comeback of nuclear and its challenges
25:00 How U.S. shale changed global energy and inflation
32:00 Why energy infrastructure is less volatile than commodities
36:00 Inside Tortoise’s new AI infrastructure ETF (TCAI)
43:00 The rise of digital and electricity infrastructure plays
45:00 How Tortoise evaluates investments and valuations
49:00 The resilience and future expansion of the U.S. grid
52:00 Closing lessons: contrarian investing and energy’s importance

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler sits down with investor and author Bogumil Baranowski to discuss one of investing’s most important mindset shifts: moving beyond cheap stocks to paying up for quality and exceptional opportunities. Drawing on lessons from Warren Buffett, Ben Graham, and his own journey, Bogumil explains how value investing evolves across three key phases—buying cheap, buying good, and learning to pay up. The conversation explores patience, conviction, dead money periods, family wealth stewardship, and how to think about value versus price in a noisy world.

Topics covered:
• The “cheapest dentist” analogy and why investors chase bargains
• The three phases of investor evolution: cheap, good, and exceptional
• Lessons from Buffett, Munger, and Graham on paying up for quality
• How to hold through drawdowns and dead money periods
• Why patience and conviction are the hardest investing skills
• Frugality, compounding, and lessons from his grandmother
• How long-term family investors think about wealth and stewardship
• The difference between price and value in modern markets
• How to know when cheap is too cheap and quality is worth paying for
• Why great investments are often simple to explain
• The story behind his Wall Street Journal essay “The Expensive Truth About Cheap Investments”

Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction – The cheapest dentist analogy
03:00 Why investors love cheap stocks
07:00 The evolution from bargain hunter to quality investor
09:00 Examples from Ben Graham, Buffett, and Facebook
15:30 Conviction, drawdowns, and dead money
19:00 Judging success by business progress, not stock price
27:00 Lessons from grandma on value and frugality
31:00 How Buffett evolved from cheap to quality
45:00 Investing for future generations
49:00 Invisible wealth and stewardship
52:00 The value investor dilemma
58:00 Equal-weight vs market-cap indexes
59:00 Lessons for the average investor
1:02:00 How much research you really need
1:04:30 How his WSJ essay came to life and final takeaways

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Matt Zenz of Longview Research Partners to explore factor investing, evidence-based strategies, and the challenges and opportunities in today’s markets. Matt shares insights from his engineering background, his time at DFA, and his current work running the Longview Advantage ETF (EBI). We cover the nuances of value, momentum, size, implementation, and how investors can think more effectively about long-term returns.

Topics covered:

Matt’s journey from engineering to investing
Lessons learned at DFA and the foundation of evidence-based investing
Defining factors and what makes them credible
The role of value, momentum, quality, and size in portfolios
The challenges of intangibles and redefining value
Large cap tech dominance, mean reversion, and whether the world has changed
Factor timing, valuation spreads, and Cliff Asness’ “sin” framework
How momentum can be integrated with value tilts
Portfolio construction: combining factors vs sleeve approaches
Implementation challenges for large vs small managers
How Longview manages liquidity, turnover, and trading costs
The potential impact of AI on factor investing
Future opportunities in implementation alpha and ETF design
Matt’s biggest investing belief most peers disagree with
The key lesson he would teach the average investor

Timestamps:
00:00 Value vs returns and factor investing basics
03:00 From engineering and Boeing to investing
06:15 Time at DFA and lessons in evidence-based investing
07:30 What evidence-based investing really means
09:25 Defining factors and what makes them valid
12:00 Using value, profitability, size, and momentum
16:00 Large cap tech dominance and future returns
18:00 Mean reversion and whether the world has changed
20:00 How long does value need to struggle before it’s “dead”?
22:30 Should value be redefined for intangibles?
25:30 Intangibles, R&D, and why adjustments add noise
27:00 Value’s performance across economic cycles and migration
30:00 Interest rates, growth, and value performance
32:00 Factor timing and valuation spreads
34:15 The role of momentum in timing and implementation
35:00 How Longview applies passive-aggressive tilts
36:30 Combining factors vs sleeve approaches
39:00 How momentum is used in practice
41:30 Factor migration and average holding periods
43:00 The size premium and whether it still exists
44:30 The benefits of being nimble vs large fund families
47:30 Liquidity challenges in small cap value
52:00 The role of AI in investing
54:00 Where implementation adds the most alpha
55:30 One belief Matt holds that peers may disagree with
57:20 The one lesson for the average investor

In this episode of Excess Returns, we’re joined by Noel Smith, co-founder and CIO of Convex Asset Management. Noel shares his unique journey from biochemistry and the military to market making, high-frequency trading, and running a volatility-focused hedge fund. We dig deep into volatility, regime models, income strategies, dispersion, tail hedging, and more, offering a rare look inside the world of professional options and volatility trading.

Topics covered:

Noel’s background: biochemistry, military, market making, HFT, hedge fund launch
How markets have evolved since the 1990s
Why volatility is the best source of market information
Regime shift modeling and its role in strategy selection
Using options for income and the trade-offs investors should understand
Volatility harvesting and risk-defined short vol strategies
The impact of zero DTE options on markets
Dispersion trading and correlation dynamics
Bond vol arbitrage and volatility surfaces
Opportunistic trades like GameStop and meme stocks
Tail hedging, its costs, and how to monetize hedges
Lessons on flexibility, risk, and never being married to positions

Timestamps:
00:00 Intro and Noel’s unique background
06:00 How markets have changed behind the scenes
07:00 Why volatility is the best information source
09:00 Regime shift model explained
19:00 Using options for income – benefits and risks
24:30 Volatility harvesting strategies
29:10 What the VIX does (and doesn’t) tell you
30:30 Zero DTE options and systemic risk
33:20 Dispersion trading explained
42:00 Bond vol arbitrage
45:00 Opportunistic trades: GameStop and beyond
51:30 Tail hedging and rebalancing
54:30 Lessons on flexibility and risk management

In this episode, we sit down with Ben Carlson of Ritholtz Wealth Management and A Wealth of Common Sense to talk about market valuations, the rise of AI, investor behavior, and what history can teach us about investing today. Ben shares his perspective on why valuations are harder to use than ever, how market structure has shifted, and the lessons he’s learned as both a writer and an investor navigating major market cycles.

Topics covered in this episode:

Why market valuations are harder to use today than in the past
The impact of buybacks, margins, and technology on long-term comparisons
Market concentration and the dominance of mega-cap tech stocks
Passive investing flows, investor behavior, and government backstops
How AI compares to past technological innovations and its investment implications
Value versus growth cycles and why U.S. tech has broken historical norms
The lessons of the NASDAQ since 2000 and defining the long term for investors
Personal experiences from the 2008 financial crisis and the power of compounding
Diversification, gold’s surprising performance, and the case for international investing

Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and market valuations
06:00 Structural changes and the role of buybacks
09:00 Margins, efficiency, and corporate dominance
12:00 Market concentration and the rise of mega-cap tech
14:00 Passive investing and household stock ownership
18:00 Government backstops and market resilience
23:00 Valuations as expectations vs. predictions
25:00 AI boom and capital allocation
29:00 Is this 1996 or 1999? Bubble comparisons
32:00 How AI may reshape investing and daily life
41:00 Investing in breakthrough technologies
43:00 Value versus growth cycles in the U.S. and abroad
46:00 Lessons from the NASDAQ and defining long-term investing
49:00 Compounding lessons from the 2008 financial crisis
53:00 Diversification, gold, and international performance

In this episode, we sit down with Jim Paulsen to analyze the latest economic and market data through his lens of decades of market experience. Jim shares insights from his Paulsen Perspectives research, covering the job market, the Fed, inflation, valuations, investor confidence, and what they all mean for the future of the economy and markets. We explore why confidence is so low despite a bull market, how Fed policy is shaping market dynamics, and where investors might want to focus as the cycle evolves.

Topics covered in the episode:

The job market’s pivotal role in driving the economy and Fed decisions
Why recent Fed rate cuts may mark a turning point in market support systems
The narrowness of the bull market and how innovation-driven firms diverge from traditional cycles
Investor confidence, the “misery index,” and recession probability models
How easing may broaden market participation beyond large-cap growth
What “animal spirits” mean for small caps, high beta, and IPOs
The disconnect between inflation, bond yields, and growth measures
Gold, cash, crypto, and tech as “fear assets” in today’s environment
The impact of tariffs on profits, wages, and inflation expectations
Valuations in context: historical perspective and the upward bias of multiples

Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and market overview
02:00 Fed easing, inflation, and recession risks
09:00 Bull market without normal supports
17:00 Narrow leadership and innovative companies
23:55 Confidence and the misery index
29:35 Yield curve, recession probabilities, and Fed policy
34:00 Broadening of market participation
37:00 Animal spirit stocks and small caps
38:00 Inflation, bond yields, and resource unemployment
43:20 Copper-gold ratio and yields
45:10 The role of gold in portfolios
50:00 Cash, crypto, and tech as defensive assets
54:00 Tariffs, inflation, and profit margins
59:00 Inflation persistence vs. wage growth
01:01:10 Valuations and the upward bias in multiples
01:07:00 Closing thoughts and takeaways

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with John Tinsman, portfolio manager of the AOT Growth and Innovation ETF (AOTG). John shares how his investing journey began, the lessons he learned from both successes and failures, and how those experiences shaped his current investment philosophy. We dive deep into the concepts of low marginal cost, profitable growth, digital toll booths, and the transformative impact of AI. John also discusses his approach to valuation, position sizing, and why he believes large-cap growth and technology will continue to lead in the years ahead.

Main topics covered:

John’s path from personal investing to launching an ETF
Lessons learned from early stock picks and market-making experience
The power of low marginal cost businesses and long-term compounding
How AI is reshaping software development, innovation, and profitability
The importance of revenue and earnings growth in stock selection
Digital toll booths as the future of software business models
Differences between profitable vs. unprofitable growth companies
Why technology leadership today differs from the dot-com era
The role of sectors, valuation, and position sizing in portfolio construction
John’s views on growth vs. value, large-cap vs. small-cap, and future innovation trends

Timestamps:
00:00 The riskiest thing in investing
02:00 John’s background and early investing journey
05:00 Lessons from Apple, Boeing, Visa, and Potash
10:00 Insights from agriculture and value investing
12:00 AI’s impact on software development and innovation
16:00 Sectors, classifications, and thematic approaches
18:00 Comparing AI disruption to past bubbles
21:00 Profitability in today’s tech companies
22:00 Will the top companies stay dominant?
26:00 Large-cap vs. small-cap technology investing
28:00 Growth vs. value in today’s market
30:00 Demographics, Buffett’s lessons, and sector shifts
34:00 Value vs. software companies
35:00 Digital toll booths explained
37:00 Growth sustainability and digital infrastructure
40:00 Semiconductor cycles and long-term demand
44:00 Screening for growth and low marginal cost
47:00 Sell discipline and valuation checks
49:00 Position sizing and portfolio management
51:00 ETF tax benefits and structure
53:00 Where AOTG fits in portfolios
54:00 One belief peers disagree with
56:00 One lesson for the average investor
57:00 Closing thoughts and outro

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Joseph Shaposhnik, founder of Rainwater Equity and former star portfolio manager at TCW. Joseph shares the investment philosophy that drove his track record of outperformance, why he focuses on recurring revenue businesses, and how he evaluates management quality and capital allocation. We also explore lessons from great investors like Warren Buffett, Bill Miller, and Peter Lynch, along with insights on valuation, portfolio concentration, and the role of passive investing in today’s markets.

Main topics covered:

How Joseph achieved long-term outperformance at TCW and what drove his results
Why recurring revenue and predictable cash flows are central to his approach
The importance of management quality and identifying “fanatics” vs. mercenaries
Lessons investors should and should not take from Warren Buffett
Bill Miller’s influence and backing of Rainwater Equity
Characteristics Joseph looks for in great businesses and red flags in management teams
Portfolio concentration, position sizing, and risk management
Why you don’t need to have an opinion on every sector
Selling discipline and knowing when it’s time to move on
How valuation fits into his framework and how he thinks about paying up for quality
The impact of passive investing and why active managers must take a long-term view
Stories and lessons from Peter Lynch, including his enduring influence

Timestamps:
0:00 If a stock has doubled, you haven’t missed it
1:00 Introduction and Joseph’s track record at TCW
2:00 Keys to long-term outperformance
8:00 Lessons from Warren Buffett’s wins and mistakes
11:30 Bill Miller’s influence and support for Rainwater Equity
14:00 What defines a high-quality business
20:00 Free cash flow compounding and moats
24:00 Red flags in management teams
31:00 Why active management is broken and Joseph’s solution
35:00 Portfolio concentration and risk management
42:00 Sectors to avoid and why
47:00 Joseph’s selling discipline
53:00 Exceptional leaders and the role of management quality
58:00 Valuation, future value, and the changing economy
1:04:00 Passive investing and market distortions
1:09:00 Lessons and stories from Peter Lynch
1:14:00 Closing questions and key investing lessons
1:20:00 Where to learn more about Joseph and Rainwater Equity

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Sam Ro to revisit his widely read post “10 Stock Market Truths” and explore how each principle holds up in today’s market. From the long game of investing to short-term risks, valuations, AI, and earnings, Sam shares a timeless framework for navigating markets and separating noise from signal.

Topics covered:
• Why the long game is undefeated
• Short-term volatility and how to prepare for it
• The myth of average returns
• Asymmetric upside in markets and stocks
• AI as both opportunity and risk
• Earnings as the ultimate driver of stock prices
• Why valuations don’t predict the next year
• The role of uncertainty and hidden risks
• Turnover and evolution within the stock market
• Why the stock market isn’t the economy

Timestamps:
00:00 Average returns are misleading
02:00 Introducing Sam Ro
02:15 Truth #1: The long game is undefeated
08:40 Truth #2: You can get smoked in the short term
14:20 Do markets have a government backstop?
18:00 Truth #3: The myth of average returns
23:00 Truth #4: Asymmetric upside
28:00 AI as macro and micro driver
33:00 Truth #5: Earnings drive stock prices
36:30 Truth #6: Valuations won’t tell you much about next year
51:40 Truth #7: There will always be something to worry about
55:20 Truth #8: The destabilizing risks are the ones people aren’t talking about
01:05:00 Truth #9: There’s a lot of turnover in markets
01:11:00 Truth #10: The stock market isn’t the economy
01:20:00 Closing thoughts

In this episode, William Blair Global Strategist Olga Bitel joins us to unpack her “Perpetual Growth Machine” framework and what it means for investors navigating AI, tariffs, inflation volatility, market concentration, and a shifting global order. We dig into why growth often emerges from solving problems, how monopolies can stunt future innovation, where AI’s productivity dividends could accrue, and why she sees the next decade’s best opportunities outside the United States. Olga also walks through the risks she’s watching, why facts change faster than narratives, and practical ways to connect top-down insights with bottom-up research.

Topics covered

The Perpetual Growth Machine: why needs spark innovation and growth, and how investors can spot it early
Why monopolies look great to investors but hurt long-term growth and innovation
AI as a general purpose technology and the scale of potential productivity savings
Housing affordability, incomes, and policy bottlenecks through the PGM lens
How firms are actually adopting AI and how faster data changes research cadence
Europe’s defense build-out and the rise of national champions and small-cap innovators
Interpreting market concentration and what it signals about competition
Inflation oscillation, policy mix, and why the Fed’s tools have limits
Tariffs as a regressive tax and how costs pass through to consumers over time
US exceptionalism narrowing and why ex-US markets may lead in the coming cycle
The Draghi report and tearing down barriers inside the EU single market
Comparing late-1990s tech to today’s AI build-out and who the next leaders may be
Growth vs. value: focusing on sustained profit inflections, not cheapness alone
Using stakeholder analysis to link macro themes to bottom-up stock work
Biggest opportunities: Japan, Korea, Europe, select emerging markets, and parts of the Middle East
Biggest risk: a breakdown in the global order amid US-China tensions
Closing lessons: stay curious, stay nimble, question narratives, track the facts

Timestamps
00:00 Introduction and Olga’s role at William Blair
02:49 The Perpetual Growth Machine explained
06:24 Policy bottlenecks, incentives, and growth
09:32 AI as a general purpose technology and productivity math
11:53 Practical AI adoption inside investment firms
15:06 Where PGM points to opportunity right now
16:26 Europe’s defense spending and emerging winners
19:02 Macro setup and consumer health
20:42 Inflation today and what’s changed under the hood
22:46 The Fed’s dilemma and limits of monetary policy
25:00 Tariffs 101: who pays and how it shows up
28:55 Early evidence in goods prices
29:41 US exceptionalism vs. the rest of the world
31:00 The Draghi report and a real EU single market
33:11 Can Europe and others catch up in tech?
36:15 EU financial services barriers and capital deployment
37:07 Portfolio implications: why look ex-US
39:10 Late-1990s tech vs. today’s AI cycle
41:20 Concentration risk and competition policy
42:26 Value vs. growth through the PGM lens
44:48 Base rates, sustaining growth, and churn at the top
49:33 Marrying macro themes with bottom-up research
51:08 Firsthand observation vs. headline narratives
52:20 Biggest opportunities across regions
53:00 Middle East changes and new listings
54:48 Biggest risk: global order and US-China tensions
55:36 Parting advice for investors

Ned Davis Research’s Chief Global Investment Strategist Tim Hayes joins us to break down NDR’s “360°” weight-of-the-evidence framework—how price, breadth, sentiment, macro and valuation fit together—and what those signals are saying right now. We dig into why he still classifies this as a secular bull market with rising secular-bear risks, how to separate real breadth thrusts from dead-cat bounces, the evolving bond/equity correlation, mega-cap concentration risk, the case for value/EM in a defensively rotating tape, and why gold’s secular and cyclical trends remain compelling. You’ll also hear how NDR allocates across stocks, bonds, cash (and gold), and Tim’s timeless lesson for investors: stay objective, disciplined, and flexible.

Topics Covered

NDR’s 360° process: price + sentiment + macro + valuation, combined via equal-weighted composites (“weight of the evidence”)
How to use breadth, put/call, and thrust signals without getting faked out
Secular bull vs. secular bear: what would actually trigger the secular turn
Reading the bond market: why the stock/bond correlation flipped in 2022 and what a 10-year above approximately 5.0–5.25% could mean
Concentration risk in mega-cap tech; implications for the U.S. vs. the rest of the world
Where value, small caps, and EM can shine in defensive rotations
Gold: drivers of the move, secular/cyclical setup, and role in a balanced allocation
Practical allocation: when cash was king (2022), current market-weight posture, and sizing for gold
“No Pets Allowed”: why aggregates beat single “pet” indicators
Using historical analogs carefully—and what to learn (and not learn) from them
Tim’s core lesson: you can’t forecast reliably—stay flexible and evidence-driven

Timestamps (YouTube Chapters)

00:00 Don’t fight the tape—or the Fed (opening context)
01:06 Intro and why NDR’s process beats single charts
02:58 NDR’s 360° framework and composite models
05:31 Indicators that matter: breadth, sentiment, macro/valuation
08:11 Asset-allocation model (stocks/bonds/cash) and real-time record
09:27 “Secular bull intact; secular-bear risk rising” explained
13:04 What counts as a secular bear (’66–’82, 2000–’09)
15:05 Tightening vs. easing cycles and thrust reliability
16:22 What a breadth thrust actually looks like
19:55 From sentiment extremes to 50/200-day confirmation
20:06 Bonds and stocks: the correlation flip since 2022
22:47 Duration, rate-cut hopes, and why cash led in 2022
24:02 Mega-cap concentration risk—paths from here
27:23 Valuation: tech earnings yield at extremes; U.S. most expensive
29:14 Where value/small caps/EM can win; China’s role in EM
33:25 Gold’s standout year—drivers and positioning
36:16 Gold’s secular and cyclical bull case
37:13 How much gold belongs in a balanced portfolio
40:32 “No Pets Allowed”: trust aggregates, not single signals
47:16 Bear-watch vs. rally-watch signals in 2025
49:02 Using historical analogs without overfitting
51:00 NDR culture: objectivity over narratives
53:41 Why independence matters
53:59 Two closing questions: contrarian belief and one lesson
59:03 Where to find Tim and NDR; disclaimer

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Brent Donnelly, veteran trader, author, and president of Spectra Markets, to dive deep into macro markets, trading philosophy, the role of the Fed, and how AI is changing the way traders operate. Brent shares insights from his decades in FX and macro trading, his flexible approach to positioning, and the lessons he’s learned about risk management, narratives, and humility in markets.

Topics Covered:

Why the Fed is becoming more political and what that means for markets
The “re-acceleration that wasn’t” and lessons from quickly abandoning trades
How to structure trades like gold calls and TLT puts for asymmetric payoff
FX as the “exhaust valve” for tariffs and global capital flows
Canada’s housing bubble and CAD vulnerabilities
Inflation targeting, bond vigilantes, and the Fed’s credibility
Avoiding the trap of perma-bearishness and using stop-losses as forced humility
The importance of imagination in regime changes and Fed forecast errors
How Brent is using LLMs and AI to trade headlines, structure trades, and analyze patterns
Trading bubble names with options and risk-aware structures
Lessons on flexibility, humility, and embracing uncertainty in markets

Timestamps:
00:00 – Fed independence and political pressure
02:00 – The failed “re-acceleration” thesis
06:00 – Structuring gold calls and TLT puts
14:00 – FX as the exhaust valve for tariffs
20:50 – Canada’s housing market and CAD risks
26:30 – The Fed as a political institution
32:40 – Inflation targeting and 3% as the new 2%
35:20 – Avoiding perma-bear bias and using stop-losses
42:00 – The Fed dinner story and the humility of wrong forecasts
46:30 – Using LLMs and AI in trading
53:00 – Shorting bubble names with call spreads
56:00 – Cheat sheets and pattern recognition with AI
59:30 – Lessons on flexibility and humility in trading
1:02:15 – Closing thoughts and where to follow Brent

In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Cullen Roche of Discipline Funds for an in-depth conversation on the economy, markets, demographics, AI, and investing frameworks. Cullen cuts through the noise to explain the real forces shaping inflation, interest rates, the role of the Federal Reserve, and why he believes the U.S. faces more disinflationary pressures than inflationary risks. We also dive into his “defined duration” investing framework and preview his upcoming work on portfolio strategies.

Topics Covered

Why fears of a looming debt crisis may be misplaced
Inflation outlook, tariffs, and the Fed’s “soft landing” challenge
The importance of Fed independence and risks of politicization
Immigration, demographics, and long-term disinflationary trends
How AI is reshaping productivity, inequality, and the job market
Defined Duration Investing and asset-liability matching
Lessons from all-weather strategies and the Permanent Portfolio
Cullen’s “Forward Cap Portfolio” and future of global markets

Timestamps
00:00 – Cullen on debt crisis fears
02:32 – State of the U.S. economy post-COVID
05:18 – Inflation, tariffs, and shelter costs
10:25 – Soft landing vs. rolling recessions
14:07 – The Fed’s role and impossible job
19:25 – National debt and Ray Dalio’s crisis warning
27:52 – AI boom and disinflationary forces
31:01 – Immigration, demographics, and inflation
37:23 – Aging population and wealth inequality
43:00 – How AI impacts productivity and jobs
52:00 – Defined Duration Investing explained
1:01:34 – Portfolio strategies: Permanent Portfolio & risk parity
1:03:54 – Cullen’s “Forward Cap Portfolio”
1:06:31 – Closing thoughts and future projects

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with EricPachman of Bancreek Capital to explore the intersection of data, economics, andinvesting. Eric shares his unique journey from the corporate world tohealthcare transparency and ultimately to building a data-driven investmentfirm rooted in information theory. We dive deep into employment trends,healthcare’s role in the economy, immigration, inflation, and how hissystematic process identifies companies with the endurance to thrive.

Topics Covered

Eric’s unconventional career path: from Morgan Stanley andExxonMobil to founding 46Brooklyn and joining Band Creek
How personal experiences led him to tackle healthcaretransparency and drug pricing reform
The role of information theory in investing and thefoundation of Band Creek’s systematic process
Building powerful data visualizations to understand labormarkets, inflation, and structural economic changes
Why healthcare dominates recent U.S. job growth and therisks of overreliance on one sector
The impact of immigration on labor force growth andstructural inflation
Key drivers of inflation and how to interpret CPI and PCEdata
How Band Creek applies systematic endurance and the KellyCriterion to equity selection
Sector exposures and lessons learned from applyingdata-driven models internationally
Eric’s views on cognitive biases, why most investors can’treliably beat the market, and the power of data analysis

In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Cole Smead of Smead Capital for a wide-ranging conversation on markets, history, and the principles of value investing. Cole shares his perspectives on fiscal largesse, inflation, passive flows, energy markets, U.S. exceptionalism, and the timeless lessons of Buffett and Munger. His insights bridge economic history with today’s market realities, giving investors a framework to think about risk, capital allocation, and opportunity costs.

Deficits, monetary policy, and why recessions are hard to find today
Inflation dynamics and lessons from the 1960s and 1970s
The U.S. government’s role in markets (Intel stake, big government policies)
American exceptionalism vs. global capital allocation improvements
Earnings quality and the divergence between accounting and economic profits
Passive investing flows, weak competition, and investor behavior
Energy investing: from fracking bust to efficiency and capital discipline
Comparing the AI boom with past manias and capital cycles
Smead Capital’s investment process and evaluating “wonderful companies”
Buffett, Munger, and the lessons of asset-light vs. capital-intensive businesses
Closing insights: why returns on capital matter more than EPS or revenue

00:00 – Opening quote and fiscal deficits
02:00 – Debt, inflation, and recession risks
08:50 – Government stake in Intel & big government era
12:15 – U.S. exceptionalism and arrogance
17:30 – Earnings quality erosion in U.S. businesses
24:00 – Passive flows and human behavior
27:30 – Opportunities in energy investing
34:00 – Energy buildout vs. AI boom
38:00 – Smead Capital’s investment process
44:00 – Lessons from Buffett and Munger
51:00 – Standard closing question

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Brent Schutte, CIO of Northwestern Mutual, to discuss the current macro landscape and what it means for investors. Brent shares his balanced perspective on the Fed, inflation, tariffs, concentration risk in markets, and why diversification may be more important now than ever. With over 30 years of investing experience, Brent provides valuable lessons from past cycles that help put today’s environment in context.

The Fed’s dual mandate and why both inflation and unemployment risks matter
How tariffs could reshape growth and inflation dynamics
Market concentration and the dominance of the Magnificent Seven
Lessons from past cycles (1999 tech bubble, 2007 commodities, Japan in the 1980s)
The role of diversification, including small/mid caps, international equities, and commodities
Active vs. passive investing and how to evaluate managers
Recession signals, rolling recessions, and hidden economic weakness
Why humility and balance are essential in portfolio construction

00:00 – Introduction & importance of diversification
02:00 – The Fed’s mandate and tariffs’ impact on growth & inflation
07:30 – Reaction to Powell’s Jackson Hole speech & Fed independence
15:20 – Hidden recession, labor market signals & AI’s economic role
20:30 – Reliability of recession indicators post-COVID
26:00 – Tariffs, uncertainty & risks for investors
28:40 – Market concentration and the Magnificent Seven
34:00 – Rethinking diversification: 60/40, commodities, and international exposure
41:20 – Lessons from past market cycles (Japan, dot-com, China, commodities)
45:15 – Passive flows, active management, and evaluating skill vs. luck
50:00 – Government stakes in companies (Intel discussion)
52:00 – Standard closing questions & final lessons

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Shawn Gibson and Eric McArdle of Liquid Strategies to explore the rapidly growing world of option-based ETF strategies. With the rise of covered calls, buffered products, and hedged equity funds, it’s more important than ever for investors to separate smart solutions from risky marketing gimmicks. Shawn and Eric break down how their firm approaches overlays, income generation, and downside protection in a way that helps advisors and investors achieve better long-term outcomes.

The evolution of options in ETFs and why adoption has accelerated
Common flaws in covered call strategies and the risks investors miss
How Liquid Strategies uses option overlays to add return, income, and downside protection
The “Swiss Army knife” approach to using put spreads for multiple portfolio goals
The importance of timeframe in option strategies and the debate around 0DTE
Why “high yield” products often just return investor capital
Using options for true risk management and hedging vs. cosmetic protection
How Liquid Strategies structures its ETF suite and interval funds
Where hedged equity and bond overlays can serve as ballast in portfolios
Standard closing lessons for investors on staying invested and balancing risk

00:01 – Introduction to Liquid Strategies and option-based ETFs
02:34 – The rise of options in portfolios and industry evolution
05:29 – Flaws in common options strategies
08:19 – Covered calls: why they often disappoint
12:00 – Balancing upside, downside, and income in overlays
15:31 – What overlay strategies really mean
20:19 – The “Swiss Army knife” of selling put spreads
24:09 – Why timeframe matters and 0DTE options debate
28:56 – How rates and volatility impact option overlays
32:59 – The importance of systematic but flexible processes
36:46 – High yield traps and returning investor capital
43:04 – Using options for hedging and risk management
46:47 – How advisors incorporate overlays into portfolios
48:54 – ETFs vs. interval funds explained
54:26 – Where overlays fit in today’s asset allocation
57:55 – Closing lessons for investors

In this episode, Jim Paulsen of Paulsen Perspectives joins us to break down the state of the economy, the Fed’s policy stance, inflation risks, and what’s really happening beneath the surface of the stock market. Jim explains why the headline numbers often mask the struggles of many companies, why the S&P 500 looks stretched while much of the market remains undervalued, and what investors should watch as we head into the fall.

Weak GDP growth, jobs slowdown, and why the U.S. may avoid recession despite sluggish data
How fiscal policy, tariffs, the dollar, and monetary policy are shaping growth
Why corporate profits outside the S&P 500 remain below trend despite large-cap strength
The Fed’s inflation obsession, the 2% target debate, and Jackson Hole policy shifts
Jim’s case that inflation fears are overblown, with supporting data on CPI, PPI, wages, and expectations
Historical supports for bull markets (liquidity, interest rates, dollar, confidence) and why they’ve been missing
Divergence between S&P 500 valuations vs. the rest of the market
Structural disconnect between small/mid-caps and large-cap earnings
The opportunity for market broadening if the Fed eases policy
What Jim will be watching heading into year-end

00:00 – Economic growth slowdown and risks of recession
02:00 – Policy backdrop: fiscal, monetary, dollar, and tariffs
07:00 – Why recession may still be avoided
15:00 – Powell, Jackson Hole, and the Fed’s inflation stance
24:00 – Are inflation fears overblown?
36:00 – Inflation surprise index and momentum
37:00 – What supports bull markets (liquidity, rates, dollar, confidence)
41:00 – Trendline analysis: S&P vs. broader market
47:00 – Russell 2000 earnings vs. S&P 500 divergence
52:00 – Corporate profits divergence and policy implications
59:00 – What Jim is watching heading into year-end

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Mike Philbrick of Resolve Asset Management to discuss why the traditional 60/40 portfolio may no longer be enough, the role of “psychological commodities” like gold and Bitcoin, and how return stacking can change the way investors think about diversification. Mike shares insights on macro regimes, investor psychology, and why these once-fringe assets may now be foundational in building resilient portfolios.

Topics Covered:

Why the 1982–2020 period was a “golden era” for stocks and bonds
How today’s macro regime challenges traditional diversification
The case for gold and Bitcoin as portfolio diversifiers
Debt, inflation, and the shifting role of scarce assets
Why lack of cash flows is a feature, not a bug, for gold & Bitcoin
Generational differences in crypto adoption and advisor psychology
How return stacking works and why it matters for investors
The evolving regulatory and institutional landscape for Bitcoin
Risks: existential threats, quantum computing, policy changes
Tokenization, blockchain innovation, and the future of finance
Mike’s one lesson for the average investor

Timestamps:
00:00 – Why the 1982–2020 period was a golden era
03:00 – Stocks, bonds, and changing correlations
07:00 – Debt, inflation, and the macro backdrop
10:00 – Gold, Bitcoin, and the cash flow debate
14:20 – Why investors resist gold & Bitcoin
19:00 – Generational divides and adoption rates
23:00 – The evolution of gold and parallels to Bitcoin
26:30 – What is Bitcoin? Digital gold vs growth asset
28:30 – Career risk flipping: from owning to not owning
32:00 – Behavioral biases and implementation frictions
35:00 – Sizing matters: avoiding “all or nothing” mistakes
36:00 – Market-cap weights and neutral allocations
38:00 – Long-term real returns of gold & Bitcoin
40:00 – Will Bitcoin and gold compete or complement?
43:00 – Portfolio construction: risk-weighting gold & Bitcoin
44:00 – Return stacking explained
49:00 – Trend following and dead money periods
51:00 – Risks: quantum computing, regulation, behavior
56:00 – Tokenization, blockchain rails, and innovation
1:01:13 – Mike’s one lesson for the average investor

Defined outcome ETFs have exploded in popularity, offering investors a way to combine downside protection with upside participation. In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Jeff Chang of Vest Financial to break down the mechanics of buffer ETFs, how they fit into portfolios, the critiques they face, and where this space is headed. Jeff shares the origin story of Vest, the innovations that made these strategies accessible and how Buffer ETFs work behind the scenes.

The origin of Vest and the impact of the Lehman collapse on product design
How buffer ETFs work and why they focus on the “first 10–15%” of drawdowns
The behavioral finance angle: making hedging simple and accessible
Why 2022 highlighted the weaknesses of traditional 60/40 portfolios
The mechanics of buffer ETFs: options structures and resets
Popular buffer levels and how investors are using them
Addressing critiques: costs, beta instability, and comparisons to cash or commodities
The scalability of these strategies and potential market impact
Behavioral vs. quantitative advantages of defined outcome funds
Future developments, including applications to crypto and higher-volatility assets
Jeff’s lessons on investing, risk management, and staying invested
00:00 – Introduction and the growth of defined outcome strategies
02:00 – The genesis of Vest Financial after Lehman’s collapse
09:00 – Explaining buffer ETFs in simple terms
14:00 – Who uses these strategies and why 2022 was a turning point
18:00 – Mechanics of resets and protection at market highs
22:00 – Range of buffers, caps, and investor demand
27:00 – The options structures behind buffer ETFs
30:00 – Liquidity, scalability, and market impact considerations
34:00 – How investors are using buffers in portfolios
38:00 – Tax efficiency inside the ETF wrapper
39:00 – Addressing critiques: cash, commodities, and costs
47:00 – Are these strategies more behavioral or quantitative?
48:30 – The future of buffer strategies and expansion into crypto
53:00 – Jeff’s contrarian investing belief
54:00 – The one lesson Jeff would teach every investor

In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Tobias Carlisle — author, host of Value After Hours, and manager of the Acquirers Funds. Toby shares his candid perspective on market valuations, value investing’s long struggle, and why he still believes mean reversion will eventually swing back in favor of small caps and value stocks. We also dive into AI, global markets, the Fed, housing, and where investors might find opportunity outside today’s expensive U.S. mega-caps.

Market valuations: why today’s market may be more expensive than 1929, 2000, or 2020
The pitfalls of relying on single-year P/E ratios and better long-term valuation measures
The divergence between the “Magnificent 10” and the rest of the market
Small caps, mid caps, and value: where Toby sees opportunity despite an earnings recession
AI as both a transformative force and a potential bubble-like capital cycle
U.S. vs. international markets: structural advantages of American capitalism and where China is catching up
The Fed, interest rates, inflation, and how they really matter for value investors
Housing affordability and demographics as headwinds for the U.S. economy
Why Toby believes the “value vs. growth jaws” will eventually close

00:00 – Are markets more expensive than 1929 and 2000?
04:00 – Breaking down valuation charts: S&P, Russell, and mid/small caps
10:00 – Why single-year P/Es mislead investors
14:00 – Lessons from past bubbles: Nifty 50, dot-com era, and now
19:00 – Large vs. small: the longest run for growth in history
24:00 – AI’s impact: transformative technology or capital cycle trap?
32:00 – Toby’s personal experience with AI (and why it disappoints him so far)
33:00 – U.S. advantages vs. international markets and China’s rise
41:00 – Are today’s U.S. valuations justified?
45:00 – The Fed, interest rates, and speculation
46:00 – Housing affordability and demographics as headwinds
55:00 – Should value investors care about macro?
59:00 – Closing question: Toby’s contrarian belief on value vs. growth

In this episode, we sit down with Leigh Drogen of StarKiller Capital, alongside guest co-host Kai Wu, for a deep dive into crypto investing strategies, momentum in digital assets, and market-neutral DeFi yield opportunities. Leigh shares his perspective on where we are in the crypto evolution, the parallels with past technology cycles, and how to survive and advance in one of the most volatile asset classes in the world. From time-series and cross-sectional momentum to the economics of yield farming, this is a comprehensive look at building systematic strategies in digital assets.

Topics Covered:

The parallels between Web1 → Web2 and today’s crypto transition
Why the “fat protocol” thesis is giving way to the “fat app” era
The role of Bitcoin vs. Ethereum in the next stage of crypto adoption
The “survive and advance” investing philosophy
Time-series momentum and cross-sectional momentum in crypto
How VC behavior is changing momentum dynamics
Sector-level momentum and narrowing lookback periods
StarKiller’s approach to asset selection and quality screens
Building a market-neutral DeFi yield strategy
Bootstrapping network effects and early liquidity provisioning
Diligence, counterparty risk, and managing protocol risk
The competitive landscape and where the biggest edges remain in crypto

Timestamps:
00:00 – Crypto’s infrastructure milestones and evolution
02:53 – The “fat protocol” vs. “fat app” thesis
08:09 – Bitcoin’s role vs. Ethereum’s potential
14:20 – “Survive and advance” and limiting drawdowns
19:20 – Time-series vs. cross-sectional momentum
23:00 – VC selling behavior and regime change in momentum
31:47 – Sector-level momentum trends
36:13 – Shorter lookback periods and market speed
39:56 – StarKiller’s investable universe and filtering process
48:00 – Designing a market-neutral DeFi yield strategy
52:56 – Rewards farming and bootstrapping network effects
58:00 – Market-making vaults and APR opportunities
01:00:10 – Managing counterparty and protocol risk
01:04:02 – Has crypto alpha become more competitive?
01:07:41 – One lesson for the average investor

How Aswath Damodaran Manages His Own Portfolio | Show Us Your Portfolio

In this episode of our Show Us Your Portfolio series, we go inside the personal investing approach of Aswath Damodaran — the “Dean of Valuation.” Known for his expertise in corporate valuation, Aswath rarely discusses how he manages his own money. We cover his philosophy, asset allocation, position sizing rules, lifecycle diversification, and the lessons he’s learned from decades of investing his own wealth.

What you’ll learn in this episode:

The core mission that drives Aswath’s investing decisions
How he thinks about risk, concentration, and position sizing
Why he avoids bonds and focuses on equity appreciation
His approach to strategic vs. tactical investing
The role of lifecycle diversification in portfolio construction
How he decides when to buy and sell individual stocks
Why luck plays such a big role in investing results
His views on international exposure, dividends, gold, crypto, and alternative assets
Personal spending habits and what he values most outside of investing

Timestamps:
00:00 – Investing’s end game: preserve and grow wealth
03:25 – How life stage changes investment approach
07:41 – Thoughts on the 60/40 portfolio
08:47 – Why he holds no bonds
10:12 – The power of compounding
12:25 – Separating portfolio from income needs
15:02 – Strategic vs. tactical investing
18:00 – Managing concentration risk and trimming winners
20:30 – Market concentration & the Mag 7
25:31 – How he buys and sells stocks
32:46 – Hit rate and lessons from decades of investing
37:26 – Lifecycle diversification
41:00 – U.S. vs. international investing
43:22 – Dividend investing
45:35 – Gold, crypto, and alternative assets
53:15 – What he drives and his ESG take
54:39 – Spending for joy
56:00 – Key investing advice for individuals
57:37 – Life outside markets & creative thinking time

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler sits down with Nick Maggiulli — author of Just Keep Buying and his new book The Wealth Ladder. Nick shares his six-level framework for building wealth, why mobility between wealth levels is rarer than most people think, and how your financial strategy should evolve as your net worth grows. From grocery freedom to travel freedom, and from the risks of ego to the realities of taxes and investing at different stages, this conversation offers a practical guide to managing and growing wealth at any level.

Topics Covered:

The six levels of wealth and how to move between them
“Grocery freedom,” “restaurant freedom,” and “travel freedom”
Why moving down wealth levels is rare — and why moving up is harder than you think
Strategies for Level 2: the role of education and income growth
Strategies for Level 3: shifting focus to investing and compounding
The importance of diversification, taxes, and risk management at higher levels
How ego can derail wealth preservation
Behavioral shifts needed when your portfolio outpaces your income
The impact of interest rates, taxes, and spending habits on mobility
Planning for unknown future liabilities

Timestamps:
00:00 – Introduction to The Wealth Ladder framework
01:40 – Grocery freedom, restaurant freedom, and travel freedom
05:26 – Why moving down wealth levels is rare
09:20 – Strategies for moving from Level 2 to Level 3
15:35 – Shifting from income growth to investing focus
24:24 – Diversification and risk management in Level 4
33:20 – Ego as the most expensive thing some people own
39:15 – Interest rates, taxes, and spending across levels
46:00 – Planning for unknown future liabilities
50:45 – Wealth mobility across generations

In this episode of Excess Returns, we’re joined by Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital to explore one of the most important and overlooked aspects of Warren Buffett’s investing evolution: his shift from tangible to intangible value. Based on Kai’s research paper “Buffett’s Intangible Moats,” we examine how Buffett's portfolio has evolved alongside the economy — and why the intangible drivers of brand equity, intellectual property, human capital, and network effects are central to understanding his success. Kai also shares how quantitative methods can be used to replicate Buffett’s approach and what this means for investors today.

Topics Covered:

The three eras of Buffett’s portfolio evolution: industrial, consumer, and information age
Why Buffett’s shift away from deep value investing began earlier than most realize
How Charlie Munger helped change Buffett’s approach — and why that mattered
Buffett’s preference for intangible assets like brand, IP, and network effects
How to quantify intangible value and its four key components
Surprising stats: Buffett rarely buys below book value and holds high price-to-book stocks
Kai’s framework for building an intangible value score across stocks
Factor attribution: quality and intangible value explain most of Buffett’s alpha
The impact of portfolio size, sector biases, and evolution of circle of competence
How to replicate Buffett’s approach using a systematic, factor-based strategy
Why intangible value may be the "quality of tomorrow" and a forward-looking moat

Timestamps:

00:00 – Buffett’s evolution from value to intangible investor
01:55 – Why Kai researched Buffett’s investing style now
04:00 – The three eras of Buffett: Geico, Coca-Cola, Apple
08:15 – How Buffett’s thinking changed under Munger’s influence
10:00 – The rise of intangible moats and Buffett’s definition of economic goodwill
13:10 – Four components of intangible value
15:10 – Mapping Buffett’s holdings to intangible assets over time
17:30 – Does Buffett get enough credit for evolving?
20:30 – Only 8% of his holdings were bought below book value
24:00 – Average price-to-book of Buffett's portfolio is 8
26:00 – Defining Kai’s intangible value factor
27:50 – Buffett becomes a value investor again — just using a different metric
30:00 – Circle of competence vs. expanding opportunity set
33:00 – Today’s portfolio is 75% intangible by Kai’s framework
34:45 – Decomposing Buffett’s returns into factors
38:00 – Quality and intangible value explain 90% of Buffett’s alpha
43:15 – Sector exposure vs. true value tilt
49:00 – Intangible value as a leading indicator of quality
52:00 – Building a Buffett-style quant portfolio using two key factors
54:00 – Why Buffett’s future returns may be more muted

📈 In this episode of Excess Returns, we’re joined by Sam Stovall, Chief Investment Strategist at CFRA and author of The Seven Rules of Wall Street. We explore Sam’s timeless, data-driven investing rules and connect them to today’s market environment—including sector trends, interest rates, Fed policy, investor behavior, and why market history is one of the most underrated tools for navigating uncertainty. This conversation blends historical perspective with practical insights, making it essential viewing for long-term investors and students of market behavior alike.

🔍 Topics Covered:

The power of rules-based investing and emotional discipline
Why momentum often beats mean reversion in sectors
The predictive value of January market performance
How AI hype is shaping today’s market narrative
Whether “Sell in May” still works—and what to do instead
The case for value investing and high-quality dividend stocks
A simple two-sector portfolio that beat tech (with less risk)
Whether the 60/40 portfolio is still viable
The failure of equal weight and small caps to outperform recently
How to manage fear and stay invested during volatile markets
What history teaches about Fed rate cuts and market returns
A momentum strategy for finding “bull markets somewhere”
Sam’s top lesson for the average investor

⏱️ Timestamps:
00:00 – Market performance after strong Januaries
02:00 – Let your winners ride, cut losers short
04:45 – Current sector winners and market concentration
06:30 – As goes January, so goes the year
09:00 – Why Year 3 of bull markets tends to be weak
11:00 – How AI fits into today’s bull case
12:30 – Sell in May—but rotate instead of retreat
14:30 – Why value investing has struggled
16:00 – Tech as the new consumer staple?
17:45 – A free lunch: Tech + staples portfolio
20:30 – The 60/40 portfolio and inflation hedging
22:20 – Don’t get mad, get even (equal weight vs. cap weight)
24:00 – Managing emotions and using history as Valium
26:20 – Don’t fight the Fed: Rate cuts and market returns
28:30 – CFRA’s Fed outlook for the second half
29:40 – There’s always a bull market somewhere
31:20 – Sam’s #1 lesson for the average investor

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler sits down with Grant Williams for a wide-ranging conversation on what he calls the “Hundred Year Pivot.” Grant shares his view that we are living through a once-in-a-century inflection point — a deep, structural shift that is reshaping markets, institutions, societal values, and even individual behavior. This isn’t about predicting the next trade; it’s about understanding the tectonic changes happening beneath the surface and how investors can adapt, survive, and eventually thrive.

🔍 Topics covered in this episode:

What the “Hundred Year Pivot” really means
Why trust is the foundation of everything — and why it’s cracking
The loss of long-standing institutions and belief systems
How the freezing of Russian assets triggered a global monetary rethink
Why central banks are buying gold like never before
Why “buy the dip” might be a dangerous relic of a past era
The return of capital preservation as a core investing principle
How community, religion, and localism are resurfacing
The psychology of luck, risk, and staying rich
What gives Grant hope, despite the darkness of this turning

⏱️ Timestamps:
00:00 – The hundred-year pivot and deep structural change
04:00 – Financial nihilism and the breakdown of institutional trust
11:00 – The freezing of Russian assets and its global implications
14:00 – Central banks, gold, and the unraveling of the dollar system
23:00 – From 40 years of tailwinds to a harder investing environment
27:00 – Why “buy the dip” is getting more dangerous
33:00 – Capital preservation vs. capital accumulation
40:00 – Societal change, community assets, and the new investment mindset
54:00 – Grant’s reason for optimism

In this episode of Excess Returns, Justin and special guest host Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital are joined by Verdad’s Dan Rasmussen for a deep dive into the hidden risks lurking in private equity—and why they may be more dangerous than investors realize.

Rasmussen, a long-time critic of the asset class, explains why the allure of illiquidity, stale pricing, and past outperformance has led to dangerous capital misallocations. Along the way, we explore the origins of the Yale model, the current liquidity crunch, volatility laundering, and whether small-cap value could be the better bet today. We also dig into bubbles, biotech, and whether AI will concentrate or diffuse economic power.

🔑 Topics covered:

Why private equity may not be what investors think it is
The original logic of the Yale model—and how it’s broken today
Leverage, small company risk, and the illusion of low volatility
How private equity portfolios are “money traps” in disguise
Small-cap value as public market private equity
Why biotech could be the next overlooked opportunity
How innovation bubbles spark long-term progress
AI’s capital intensity and implications for Big Tech dominance
Behavioral risks in institutional vs. retail investing

📍 Timestamps:
00:00 – Why private equity could be a money trap
03:00 – The over-allocation to small, low-margin, highly levered companies
07:25 – Why private equity’s popularity may signal poor future returns
14:30 – The Yale Model’s origin story and how it morphed
19:25 – Collapse in private equity distributions
23:34 – Volatility laundering and misleading risk metrics
27:00 – What happens when private equity goes public
31:00 – Do lockups help investor behavior—or prevent learning?
35:10 – Could small-cap value be a better alternative to private equity?
42:00 – Why biotech is the most beaten-up corner of small caps
47:00 – Bubbles, innovation, and the role of speculative excess
51:00 – AI, capital intensity, and a return to economic gravity
54:00 – Will AI empower monopolies or smaller players?

Macro strategist Darius Dale returns to Excess Returns with a deep dive into the seismic shifts shaping markets today. From the implications of the Fourth Turning to the systemic risks of fiscal dominance, Dale shares how he’s helping investors stay on the right side of market risk using quantitative tools and macro insights from 42 Macro. This episode covers everything from inflation, tariffs, and AI to a systematic framework for navigating regime change in real time. Whether you're a retail investor or an institutional pro, this conversation is packed with insights that matter.

🔍 In This Episode:

The Fourth Turning’s impact on markets and society
Why inflation, income inequality, and geopolitical turmoil are converging
How Darius's market regime model (Dr. Mo) systematically adapts to risk
What the “KISS” model portfolio is—and how it outperforms 60/40
Why recession models failed and how Darius sees the economy now
The overlooked growth shock from policy—not just tariffs
How AI may shift the economic power structure even more dramatically
Why he believes the long-term outlook is structurally bullish (despite the chaos)

⏱️ Timestamps:
00:00 – Opening macro warning and Fourth Turning setup
02:44 – Darius on working with Neil Howe and implications of generational shifts
04:13 – How the Fourth Turning creates fiscal dominance and financial repression
08:21 – Explaining the market regime system and Dr. Mo
14:33 – What institutions get wrong and how volatility front-runs momentum
17:13 – The origin of 42 Macro and mission to democratize institutional-grade tools
18:35 – Case study: When the model turned bullish in April
21:23 – Why tariffs don’t derail the model
23:41 – Why recession signals failed & how Dale reads the cycle differently
30:13 – Why Dale is still pounding the table on U.S. resilience
35:11 – Paradigm A → B → C: the evolution of economic policy under pressure
43:49 – Will AI fuel an i-shaped economy? Or something better?
50:28 – Inside the “KISS” model portfolio and its 25% average annual return

🔗 Learn more at 42macro.com
📊 Follow Darius Dale on X: @42macroDDale

In this episode of Excess Returns, Mike Green returns to dissect the structural transformation underway in public markets due to the rise of passive investing. He explains why “there’s no such thing as a passive investor,” how inelastic flows distort prices, and what it means for valuation, volatility, and the long-term sustainability of equity markets. From the math behind market multipliers to the policy distortions driving mega-cap dominance, Mike walks through the macro, micro, and behavioral implications of passive flows — and what investors and policymakers need to do about it.

🔍 Topics Covered:

Why passive investing isn’t truly passive
The origins and impact of the inelastic market hypothesis
How passive flows distort price discovery
The shift from mean reversion to mean expansion in markets
Multipliers and the mechanics of how flows drive prices
Why market efficiency is breaking down at scale
The hidden risks of passive-dominant market structure
Target date funds and their unintended consequences
The fragility of valuations under passive dominance
The problem with IPO scarcity and capital misallocation
Options strategies for convex tails and market drift
Why the Fed and regulators may act — and what could trigger it
Bitcoin and private markets as new flow-driven regimes
How policy and tax advantages have reshaped capitalism

⏱️ Timestamps:
00:00 – "There’s no such thing as a passive investor"
01:05 – The origins of Mike’s work on passive flows
03:00 – Bill Sharpe vs. Lasse Pedersen on passive flaws
06:00 – Index rebalancing and the illusion of passivity
07:00 – The rise of flow-based (demand-side) asset pricing
10:00 – Why EMH broke down under scale
12:00 – The human layer markets forgot
14:30 – The math behind price multipliers (5x to 25x)
17:00 – Market efficiency vs. market distortion
20:00 – Meta, index drift, and fake efficiency
23:00 – What individual investors should do
25:00 – The Mag 7 and extreme multiplier effects
27:00 – Options and convex tail risk management
29:00 – Mike’s 2016 survey on marginal buying behavior
31:00 – The shift from mean reversion to mean expansion
33:30 – When the music stops: wealth-to-income dynamics
35:00 – Theoretical crash under net withdrawals
36:00 – Why the boomer selloff thesis is flawed
39:00 – The overlooked risk: wealthy investors exiting actives
41:00 – Public vs. private equity concentration
43:00 – Why policy response is likely (and how it may look)
46:00 – Political power vs. market dominance
49:00 – Bitcoin, passive ETFs, and flow-driven pricing
52:00 – Private equity in 401(k)s — implications and risks
57:00 – The unintended outcomes of inflated valuations
59:00 – The hollowing out of the public equity bid
1:01:00 – How Vanguard’s 2015 rebalancing moved the market
1:04:00 – Valuation opacity and future withdrawals
1:07:00 – What Mike is working on now and next steps

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In the premiere episode of our new monthly series, The Jim Paulsen Show we dig into Jim's latest research and the charts that define today's economic and market landscape. Jim lays out a compelling case for why the private sector is more resilient than many believe, why a recession may not be on the horizon, and why so many parts of the market still look cheap despite record index levels. We explore the implications of tariffs, the underappreciated productivity boom, the potential for a market broadening, and the risks posed by policy uncertainty.

Whether you're a macro thinker, a data-driven investor, or just trying to make sense of this confusing market, Jim brings clarity, charts, and contrarian insight.

📉 What the Market Is Getting Wrong | Liz Ann Sonders on Debt, Tariffs, and the Fed

In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, for an in-depth conversation about what's really driving markets right now. Drawing on her latest research and commentary, we dig into retail trading dynamics, the implications of rising tariffs, the debt burden, inflation pressures, market concentration, and why the Fed might be holding the line. Liz Ann delivers clear, actionable insights—cutting through the noise and helping investors understand what matters most in today’s unstable environment.

📌 Topics Covered:

Why high debt levels suppress long-term economic growth and productivity
The retail trader “fingerprint” on recent market moves
How sentiment extremes created a powerful reversal in April
The rising risks around tariffs—and why markets may be complacent
What companies are doing about margin pressure vs. passing on inflation
The Fed’s “timeout” posture and why the market may be misreading it
Liz Ann’s view on Powell’s potential ouster and Fed independence
The disconnect between contribution to index returns vs. performance (Mag 7)
Broadening market leadership and the role of quality stocks
Why utilities and industrials are surprising AI beneficiaries
How inflation is shifting from disinflationary to secularly higher
The overlooked economic effects of immigration policy
What the labor market is hiding beneath the headline numbers
Why year-end price targets are a “dumb exercise” for individual investors

⏱️ Timestamps:
00:00 – Opening clip: debt, growth, inflation & the Fed
01:00 – Welcome and introduction
02:00 – Retail trader impact on market rally since April
05:25 – Sentiment washout and pain trade dynamics
08:00 – Policy instability and tariff complacency
12:00 – What investors can do in the face of uncertainty
14:50 – Budget deficits, debt burden, and growth implications
18:00 – Inflationary risks embedded in the new spending bill
20:30 – Dissecting inflation: tariffs, goods vs. services, and inequality
23:45 – Inflation vs. margins: where the impact shows first
26:00 – Instability vs. uncertainty: the new investor reality
30:30 – Labor market risks and misleading employment metrics
35:00 – Immigration's hidden macroeconomic effects
38:00 – Fed independence, Powell’s job security, and mispriced rate expectations
42:00 – Why the Fed may not cut—and why that’s bullish
44:20 – Mag 7 myth: contribution vs. true performance
48:00 – Broadening the rally: high-quality vs. low-quality stocks
50:30 – AI's second-order effects and sector-level surprises
55:00 – Liz Ann’s contrarian take: why year-end targets are pointless

Policy uncertainty is rising—but markets seem unfazed. In this episode, we sit down with Libby Cantrill, Head of Public Policy at PIMCO, to explore the critical policy risks that investors may be underestimating or ignoring altogether.

From the real-world implications of the tariffs to questions around Fed independence, fiscal stimulus, and housing market interventions, Libby provides an insider’s perspective on what’s happening in Washington—and why it matters more than the market suggests.

She also discusses how policy risk differs from macroeconomic risk, how investors often price the wrong factors, and why the next shock may not come from where most expect.

Topics covered include:

Why policy risk remains underappreciated by markets
The lasting impact of tariffs—and how they could evolve
The Big, Beautiful Tax Bill: What’s real, what’s hype
Risks to Fed independence and central bank credibility
GSE reform and the political tightrope in housing
The intersection of fiscal policy and market complacency

Whether you're focused on macro trends, portfolio positioning, or simply trying to understand what Washington might throw at markets next, this is a conversation you don’t want to miss.

Why didn’t the long-predicted recession arrive? In this episode, we talk with Aahan Menon, founder of Prometheus Research, about why traditional macro models are breaking down and what investors are missing in today’s economy. Aahan explains why recession indicators have failed, how monetary policy transmission has changed, and what really matters in understanding economic risk right now.

We also explore how Prometheus uses a systematic approach to macro investing, why focusing on the present is more valuable than forecasting the future, and what their models revealed about the true impact of tariffs—before the market reacted. If you’ve been relying on the old playbook, this conversation will challenge your thinking.

Topics discussed include:

Why recession indicators failed to predict this cycle
The real risk behind the Liberation Day tariff panic
How the Fed’s rate hikes lost their bite
What’s changed in the economy’s sensitivity to rates
Prometheus’ approach to stress testing and forecasting
How Aahan translates macro data into portfolio strategy
The behavioral traps investors fall into during macro shifts

Billions are moving through the stock market every day—but not for the reasons most investors think.

In this episode, Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma breaks down the hidden world of options dealer flows and explains how concepts like gamma, vanna, and charm are silently shaping market behavior. Whether you’re a trader or long-term investor, understanding these behind-the-scenes forces is essential to making sense of today’s volatility.

We discuss:

What dealer hedging flows are—and why they matter
How options flows move billions without a fundamental trigger
The role of gamma, vanna, and charm in stock price action
Why expiration cycles often mark major market turning points
Real-world examples: GameStop, Tesla, Nvidia, and the S&P 500
What traditional investors miss by ignoring these dynamics

Even if you’ve never traded an option, this episode will change how you see the market.

In this episode, we speak with Luca Paolini, Chief Strategist at Pictet Asset Management, about the firm’s 2025 Secular Outlook and the unfolding shift in global markets. Paolini argues that the era of U.S. exceptionalism is fading—and investors may be mispricing what comes next. We discuss why the “Great Convergence” could redefine asset allocation, what it means for U.S. equities and the dollar, and why now might be the time to lean into bonds and income-generating assets.

Paolini also shares his views on inflation, tariffs, AI, private markets, and the challenges of navigating a low-return, high-risk world. Whether you're a global macro watcher or a long-term investor thinking about regime shifts, this conversation offers a roadmap for the next five years.

Topics covered include:

Why the U.S. may no longer deserve its valuation premium
How debt and protectionism threaten global growth
Why the next five years could see converging returns across regions and assets
The investment case for bonds, credit, and emerging market debt
AI’s impact on productivity and equity concentration
The future role of gold, crypto, and private assets in portfolios

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler and Jason Buck sit down with Eric Crittenden, CIO of Standpoint Funds, for a wide-ranging and candid discussion about trend following, risk transfer markets, and what it takes to build a resilient investment strategy for uncertain futures. Eric shares decades of hard-won insights on investor behavior, portfolio construction, performance pain points, and why blending passive equities with systematic macro might just be the future of asset allocation.

🔍 Topics Covered:

The uncomfortable realities of trend following performance
Why many investors misunderstand managed futures
Eric’s view on the current drawdown and client behavior
Setting expectations with empirical data and simulations
The case for blending passive equities with trend following
Capital formation vs. risk transfer markets explained
What market participants get wrong about futures
The surprising resilience of cap-weighted equity indexes
The flaws in relying on bonds as diversifiers
How regime shifts and correlation changes affect trend models
Philosophical take on risk, regulation, and structural market design

Most investors chase yield. But what if the very models they rely on — from dividend screens to the 4% rule — are fundamentally broken?

In this episode, we’re joined by Ryan Krueger, co-founder of Freedom Day Solutions and manager of the MBOX ETF, to explore the overlooked truths of dividend investing. Ryan breaks down the importance of dividend growth over yield, why most dividend strategies ignore free cash flow, and how a disciplined sell process separates long-term success from failure. He also explains the concept of “Freedom Day” — a reimagined approach to retirement that’s built on income, not asset totals.

Whether you're a dividend investor, financial advisor, or retiree planning for long-term income, this conversation offers a fresh, practical framework you won’t hear elsewhere.

We discuss:

Why dividend growth beats high yield over time
The flaws in the 4% withdrawal rule
How yield-on-cost changes investor behavior
Red flags hidden inside popular dividend ETFs
How “Freedom Day” redefines retirement planning
Ryan’s quant + discretionary investment process
The underrated power of sell discipline
Why “never add to losers” might boost your returns

📈 Learn more about Ryan’s work: https://freedomdaysolutions.com

In this episode, we’re joined by Daryl Fairweather, Chief Economist at Redfin and author of Hate the Game, to explore the most dramatic shift in the U.S. housing market in over a decade. With sellers now outnumbering buyers by more than 500,000 for the first time since 2013, Daryl breaks down what’s really happening beneath the surface—and why so many homeowners and policymakers are reluctant to face it.

We dive into the behavioral and structural forces shaping the market today, from price stickiness and record cancellations to zoning reform and climate-driven migration. Whether you're a homeowner, investor, or policy wonk, this conversation offers a comprehensive look at what’s next for real estate in America.

Topics discussed include:

The shift to a buyer’s market and why it matters
The gap between seller expectations and buyer reality
Regional pain points: Florida, Texas, and beyond
Why insurance costs and HOAs are distorting markets
Buyer psychology, affordability, and rent vs. own dynamics
Tariffs, uncertainty, and interest rate volatility
The policy fixes Daryl believes we need—fast
Climate risk, migration, and Redfin’s flood data experiment
Why your home shouldn't be your investment strategy
Lessons from game theory and behavioral economics

Guest Links:
Daryl Fairweather’s book Hate the Game is available now on Amazon and Audible.
Follow Daryl on X, LinkedIn, and Substack @FairweatherPhD

Robert Hagstrom returns to discuss the investing principle he believes most value investors still misunderstand—despite decades of evidence from Warren Buffett. In this conversation, we explore why focus investing works, what traditional value investors got wrong about the Magnificent Seven, and how the industry's obsession with low P/E ratios and short-term tracking error leads to missed opportunities. Hagstrom also reflects on lessons from working with Bill Miller and explains why evolving your investment approach is essential for long-term success.

In this episode, we discuss:

How Hagstrom fell into money management by accident
What Buffett’s 1983 letter taught him about investing
The dangers of rigid value investing frameworks
Why most active managers fail over time
The key to compounding that investors overlook
Drawdowns, tracking error, and the psychology of focus investing
Why private equity’s appeal is mostly an illusion
What Buffett’s surprise CEO handoff really means for Berkshire Hathaway

Megan Horneman: Fragile Optimism, Hidden Inflation Risks, and What Investors Are Missing

In this episode, we’re joined by Megan Horneman, Chief Investment Officer at Verdence Capital Advisors, to discuss her firm’s 2025 outlook and what she sees as the key macro risks and opportunities for investors right now.

We explore the themes behind her “Year of Fragile Optimism” thesis, including consumer stress, inflation persistence, the impact of tariffs, debt sustainability, and why many investors are misreading the current market environment.

Megan also shares how she’s thinking about portfolio positioning in a world where traditional recession indicators are breaking down and valuations remain elevated.

Topics Discussed Include:

Why consumer strength may be a mirage
The risk of complacency around inflation
Tariffs, trade imbalances, and global uncertainty
The growing consequences of U.S. and global debt
Why small/mid-caps and international stocks may offer better value
Fixed income positioning in a “higher for longer” environment
The case for active management over passive in today’s market
Opportunities and risks in alternatives and private assets
Lessons investors can learn from recent volatility

If you're looking for a thoughtful macro perspective and practical ideas for navigating today's complex market landscape, this conversation is for you.

GMO’s Warren Chiang joins us for a deep dive into the art and science of systematic value investing. In this episode, Warren shares how his team has refined traditional value investing to adapt to an intangible-heavy world, the structural reasons deep value is historically cheap today, and how top-down insights from GMO’s asset allocation group are implemented in practice. We also explore how ESG, momentum, macro, and geopolitical shifts—including the China decoupling—are integrated into portfolio construction, and what investors can learn from GMO’s global perspective on valuations.

Topics Covered:

Why GMO didn’t abandon value—it improved it

The difference between "value" and "valuation"

How restating financial statements improves valuation accuracy

GMO’s two-step top-down and bottom-up ETF strategy

The deep value opportunity: why it’s never been cheaper

How GMO incorporates quality in a forward-looking way

Why momentum and macro are excluded from some strategies

How ESG is treated as a portfolio risk—not virtue signaling

The China supply chain shift and the Beyond China strategy

Passive investing’s long-term impact on price discovery

Managing risk, constraints, and position sizing in quant portfolios

Whether today’s market mirrors the dot-com bubble

What’s driving valuation gaps across global markets

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler sits down with Peter Atwater—President of Financial Insyghts, author of The Confidence Map, and expert on decision-making under uncertainty. Peter lays out a bold and timely framework: in a world led by dominant nationalist figures, global corporations—and their investors—must now navigate a high-stakes game of being labeled either beneficiaries or victims. This conversation digs deep into how these dynamics shape capital flows, investor sentiment, policy risk, and the future of globalization.

📌 Topics Covered:

Why today’s political leaders are reshaping markets and capitalism

How investors must rethink confidence, control, and certainty

The "beneficiary vs. victim" framework for companies and countries

Implications for capital allocation in a deglobalizing world

Fragility of dominant leadership and geopolitical risk

How social media and sentiment shape investor perception

Where investors are most misaligned with current realities

Confidence mapping for AI, private credit, Chinese equities, and more

David Giroux, CIO and Head of Investment Strategy at T. Rowe Price Investment Management, has achieved something rare in investing—beating his Morningstar peer group for 17 consecutive years. In this conversation, Giroux shares his investment philosophy, including how he identifies GARP (growth at a reasonable price) opportunities, adapts to market inefficiencies, and constructs a resilient portfolio. He also discusses his outlook on AI, interest rates, market cycles, and why long-term thinking remains a powerful edge in today's short-term-obsessed market.

We cover:

Why most investors overlook high-quality GARP stocks—and how Giroux takes advantage

How he navigates market cycles with 5-year IRR forecasts

Why long-term thinking gives him a contrarian advantage

The impact of AI on productivity, employment, and portfolio margins

His quantitative and qualitative approach to evaluating companies

What investors get wrong about financials, utilities, and passive investing

The CEOs he admires most—and what makes them exceptional

Why he thinks macro forecasts (including Fed-watching) offer little value

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler sits down with Rupert Mitchell—founder of Blind Squirrel Macro—for an insightful, opinionated, and often humorous discussion on global market dynamics, the Mag 7, structural portfolio shifts, and what it takes to be a successful generalist investor. From the “Chart of Truth” to the hidden value in tire stocks, Rupert brings decades of experience and a distinctive lens to markets, risk, and opportunity.

🔍 Topics Covered:

Why European pension funds are rethinking U.S. equity exposure

The “Chart of Truth” and its implications for global allocations

The unexpected strength of retail investors in recent rallies

Mag 7 dominance, Nvidia’s market impact, and AI euphoria

Why Apple might be the ultimate funding short

A deep dive into the “Bushy” portfolio and why 60/40 is broken

How inflation volatility shapes asset choices and international diversification

The case for owning Goodyear and Korean utilities

The problem with adjusted EBITDA and financial storytelling

How being a generalist can be a competitive investing edge

🎙️ Inside Causeway’s Quant Playbook | Joe Gubler on Factor Innovation, Risk, and Portfolio Design

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Joe Gubler, Director of Quantitative Research at Causeway Capital. Joe shares a deep dive into Causeway’s distinctive approach to factor investing, blending traditional quant signals with fundamental insights, and building models that adapt to market context. From constructing proprietary sustainability alpha signals to using machine learning to refine quality definitions, Joe reveals a cutting-edge playbook for the future of quantitative investing.

📌 In This Episode, You'll Learn:

Why Causeway doesn't treat its quant model as sacrosanct

How to blend fundamental overlays with systematic strategies

The logic behind composite factors and contextual weighting

Unconventional factor signals like corporate events and peer-based momentum

How machine learning enhances quality assessment

How Causeway adapts factor models across regimes and markets

What most quants miss when it comes to factor construction and interpretation

The evolving role of AI and NLP in alpha generation

Joe's views on passive flows and fundamental mispricings

In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, for a deep dive into the current state of the market through the lens of technical analysis. Katie walks us through her outlook on U.S. and international equities, key sector rotations, and the signals her indicators are sending about what’s next. We also explore the strategy behind her tactical ETF (TACK) and how investors can use chart-based insights to manage risk and identify opportunities in a complex macro environment.

📌 Topics Covered:

The current technical setup: secular bull, cyclical bear

How to interpret gaps, indicators, and moving averages

Weakening market breadth and its implications

Sector rotation: what’s working and what’s not

The outlook for international vs. U.S. markets

Sentiment extremes and the "fear & greed" indicators

Technical setups in commodities: crude oil and gold

Thoughts on Bitcoin, the dollar, and bond spreads

How the TACK ETF applies technical signals in practice

In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Research Affiliates founder Rob Arnott to explore his provocative research challenging mainstream economic assumptions. Rob walks us through why government stimulus often fails to deliver real growth, how decades of rising spending have shaped today’s economic environment, and what the implications are for debt, deficits, and future returns. We also dive into trade policy, tariffs, and where Rob sees the best opportunities in today’s markets using Research Affiliates’ capital markets expectations.

Full Paper:https://www.researchaffiliates.com/publications/articles/1080-stimulus-does-not-stimulate

🎯 Topics Covered:

Why stimulus doesn't always stimulate economic growth

The hidden cost of high government spending

Lessons from Japan, Ireland, and the EU on fiscal policy

Why Keynes wouldn’t recognize today’s “Keynesianism”

The role of stimulus during crises like COVID and 2008

Tariffs as strategy vs. economic drag

Rob’s take on Trump, trade wars, and negotiating tactics

Crowding out: What debt does to private investment

Research Affiliates’ expected returns across major asset classes

Why large-cap U.S. stocks may be the most overvalued

The opportunity in value, small-cap, and international markets

In this episode of Teach Me Like I'm 5, options expert Kris Abdelmessih breaks down one of the most foundational—and misunderstood—concepts in options trading: put-call parity. Using Lego analogies, homemade spreadsheets, and Fast & Furious references, Kris shows how options are like building blocks you can combine to create any payoff you want—including replicating a stock itself.

Whether you're a beginner trying to understand options basics or a seasoned investor looking for deeper insights into synthetic positions and implied interest rates, this episode is packed with practical lessons presented in the most approachable way possible.

What We Cover:

Why calls and puts are “the same” through the lens of put-call parity

How to visualize and replicate stock payoffs using only options

The concept of synthetic positions: synthetic stock, calls, and puts

How put-call parity collapses complex strategies into basic building blocks

The real mechanics behind covered calls—and what they really are

How professional traders use options pricing to infer interest rates and stock borrowing conditions

A deep dive into "box spreads" and how they replicate zero-coupon bonds

In this episode of Excess Returns, we dive deep into one of the most complex and pressing issues facing successful investors today: what to do with concentrated stock positions. Whether from employee stock compensation or a major investment win, holding too much of a single stock presents serious tax and diversification challenges. Our guests—Wes Gray of Alpha Architect, Sri Narayan of Cache Financial, and guest host Dave Nadig—break down the innovative solutions that are changing the game. From exchange funds to Section 351 conversions, this is a masterclass in modern wealth and risk management.

Topics Covered:

The problem with concentrated stock positions and why it’s getting worse

How stock-based compensation fuels investor overexposure

Why traditional exchange funds fall short—and how Cache is solving it

Understanding Section 351 ETF conversions and tax-deferred diversification

The mechanics behind Cache's NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 strategies

How exchange funds work: structure, lockups, and liquidity

Using ETFs to rebalance and solve diversification constraints

Real estate allocations and the 20% illiquid asset requirement

Costs, fees, and transparency of the modern exchange fund model

Regulatory and legal perspectives behind the structure

Practical advice for advisors and investors with low-basis positions

How to access, evaluate, and engage with Cache and Alpha Architect solutions

What does it mean to come of age during chaos—and how does that shape the generations who must lead us through it? In this thought-provoking episode of Rabbit Hole, Dave Nadig speaks with Neil Howe—author of The Fourth Turning Is Here—about the evolving role of Gen X in today's world, the generational dynamics underpinning societal shifts, and what history teaches us about crisis, community, and rebirth. This is not just a theory session—it’s a practical guide to understanding where we are in the cycle and what might come next.

Topics Covered:

Why generational transitions are slowing—and why that matters

The Gen X identity crisis: from latchkey kids to future elders

How community rises from conflict during fourth turnings

Millennials' collective investing mindset vs. Gen X contrarianism

The historical role of financial repression and inflation in crises

Parallels between Gen X and the Lost Generation

How institutions are built—and who builds them

Will the next societal reboot be state-driven or community-driven?

Global synchronization of generational crises and what that implies

What comes after the fourth turning—and how Gen X fits into it

In this episode of Excess Returns, Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital returns to break down his latest research piece, Investing Amid Trade Wars. Using over two dozen insightful visuals, Kai explores how investors should think about global trade exposure in an era of rising tariffs, economic nationalism, and geopolitical uncertainty. He makes the case for staying invested in high-quality multinational companies—especially those rich in intangible assets—and offers four actionable ways to build more resilient global portfolios. Topics Covered:

Why the market reaction to tariffs is both rational and potentially short-sighted

The long-term outperformance of global vs. domestic firms

How to define and measure global trade exposure at the company level

Real-world trade shocks and what they reveal about investor behavior

The four traits of resilient global firms

Why intangible-heavy businesses are uniquely positioned to weather trade disruptions

International vs. U.S. multinationals: hidden value in non-U.S. stocks

Practical suggestions for portfolio construction in a deglobalizing world

In this episode, Kris Sidial joins Jack Forehand and Brent Kochuba to break down the mechanics of tail risk hedging, why most volatility strategies fail, and how his team approaches dislocations in the market. We explore what's really driving volatility behind the scenes, the evolving market structure, and why the current environment may be far more precarious than it appears. If you’ve ever wondered how professional vol traders monetize chaos—or why volatility can stick around far longer than people expect—this episode is for you.

Topics Covered:

What tail risk funds are and why many of them underperform

How to build a long volatility strategy that doesn’t bleed capital

Why rebalancing is a critical component of portfolio resilience

Liquidity fragility and how it amplifies market moves

Retail's role in the latest rally and the fading institutional bid

Structural risks created by passive flows and policy shifts

Monetizing volatility spikes

The psychological traps that lead to poor volatility trading decisions

Why volatility might stay elevated for far longer than most expect

Are we heading toward a recession—or just stuck in macroeconomic purgatory? In this episode of Excess Returns, Dave Nadig and Matt Zeigler sit down with Cameron Dawson, CIO of NewEdge Wealth, to explore the uncertain territory between headline-driven panic and hard data reality. From the implications of sweeping tariffs to the capital account war no one's talking about,

Cameron offers one of the sharpest macro takes we've heard. We cover where the market might go next, how investors should respond to volatility, and what signals to trust in a confusing environment.

Topics Covered:

Why we’re in a “no man’s land” between tariffs and hard data

The potential economic fallout of 145% tariffs on China

Capital account war: Why treasury demand may be fading

What the collapse in shipping and trucking data tells us

How margin compression could trigger job cuts

The case for value over growth after a Mag 7 blow-off

Using technicals, sentiment, and positioning to spot turning points

Why quality stocks may beat traditional defensives

Whether hedging is worth it vs. holding T-bills

Practical strategies for rebalancing through market chaos

In this episode of Excess Returns, Justin and Jack welcome Travis Prentice from Informed Momentum Company to discuss the ins and outs of momentum investing. Travis brings nearly three decades of momentum investing experience and shares valuable insights about momentum strategies, misconceptions, implementation challenges, and how momentum can be effectively combined with other factors. This conversation offers both beginning and experienced investors a comprehensive look at this powerful investment strategy.

Topics Covered:

What momentum investing is and how it differs from growth investing

The mechanics of cross-sectional momentum and relative strength

Common misconceptions about momentum strategies

How fundamental data can enhance momentum strategies

The significance of continuous vs. dynamic momentum

Portfolio construction, sector concentration, and rebalancing approaches

Momentum performance across different market caps and geographies

The risk profile of momentum vs. value strategies

Momentum crashes - what they are and how to mitigate them

Tax efficiency of momentum strategies

The impact of passive investing on momentum strategiesOptimal factor combinations for diversified portfolios

Join hosts Matt Ziegler and Jack Forehand as they interview Jared Dillian (@DailyDirtNap on Twitter) for a fascinating discussion on current market conditions, macroeconomic trends, and controversial investment perspectives. Jared shares his unique takes on everything from tariffs to portfolio construction, offering insights that often challenge conventional wisdom.

Topics Covered:

Jared's contrarian view that tariffs are deflationary rather than inflationaryThe potential long-term decline of the dollar despite possible short-term strengthHow financial wars have replaced hot and cold wars in global politicsThe future of US debt and potential parallels to past debt crisesJared's "Awesome Portfolio" strategy: 20% stocks, 20% bonds, 20% cash, 20% gold, 20% real estateWhy international stocks may continue to outperform US equitiesPossible recession indicators and economic headwindsFed policy predictions and why rates might not be cut as expectedThe value of sentiment indicators and Twitter as a market research toolWhy free trade benefits economies and the risks of protectionist policies

When we started Excess Returns, we wanted to come up with one way to boil down the best advice from the experts we have interviewed into one simple question. That led us to create a standard closing question that we ask all of our guests, “Based on your experience in the markets, if you could teach one lesson to your average investor, what would that be?”.

Over the history of the podcast, we have asked that question to close to 200 guests ranging from great investors to academic experts to options and macro traders. In this episode, we share the answers from our 50 most popular guests all in one episode. Featured guests include Liz Ann Sonders, Cliff Asness, Guy Spier, Michael Mauboussin, Mike Green, Cem Karsan, Chris Davis, Aswath Damodaran, Jack Schwager, Rick Ferri and many others.

Topics Covered:The fundamental purpose of investing: preserving and growing wealth rather than getting rich quick

The importance of base rates in investment decisions

Portfolio monitoring frequency and its impact on investment psychology

Viewing stocks as ownership in actual businesses rather than trading vehicles

The value of patience, humility, and self-forgiveness in the investment process

Diversification across asset classes, strategies, and time frames

The benefits of simplicity in investment approaches

The psychological challenges of investing and how to overcome them

Compounding as a fundamental wealth-building tool

The danger of performance chasing and overconfidence

The value of a rules-based investment process

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler sits down with Andrew Cohen, who shares his extraordinary journey from Goldman Sachs trader to working directly with Bernie Madoff and ultimately becoming a victim of history's largest Ponzi scheme. Now a respected finance professor, Cohen offers unique insights into Wall Street's trading culture, the shock of Madoff's fraud, and how he rebuilt his life in academia after losing almost everything.

Topics Covered:

Andrew's early career at Goldman Sachs and how basketball gambling on the trading floor taught him market-making skills

The trading operations and technology at Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities in the early 1990s

Working dynamics with Bernie Madoff's sons, Mark and Andy, and office politics

How Andrew was invited to invest in Madoff's "exclusive" fund

Andrew's decision to leave Wall Street at the height of his success

The devastating moment Andrew learned about Madoff's arrest and the Ponzi scheme

The additional ordeal of facing clawback lawsuits after losing his investment

Transitioning to academia and finding a more fulfilling career path

Lessons for investors and finance students about risk, technology, and communication

Join hosts Matt Zeigler and Justin Carbonneau as they sit down with Richard Bernstein, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors. In this insightful conversation, Rich shares his expert perspective on today's market challenges, including the unprecedented narrowness of recent markets, the impact of tariffs on the US economy, and why the current environment calls for a shift toward value investing and greater diversification. Drawing on decades of experience, Bernstein offers practical wisdom for navigating today's uncertain investment landscape.

Topics Covered:

The difference between the 2008 financial crisis and today's economic challengesWhy 2023-2024 saw the most narrow stock market since the Great DepressionThe potential impact of tariffs as "the biggest tax on consumers in our professional careers"Why investors should err on the side of value over growth in the current marketHow US debt levels impact interest rates and economic competitivenessThe role of the Federal Reserve as a lagging rather than leading indicatorWhy gold serves as an effective hedge against uncertaintyBernstein's skeptical view on cryptocurrency and Bitcoin valuationThe limitations of index funds in today's market environmentTimeless advice for wealth building: stick to fundamentals and avoid "get rich quick" thinking

In this episode of Excess Returns, we are joined by Jim Paulsen of Paulsen Perspectives. We unpack the complexities of tariffs, Federal Reserve policies, and investor psychology amidst a turbulent market environment. Jim brings his decades of experience to provide context, rational analysis, and long-term perspectives, steering clear of bold predictions and focusing instead on practical advice for navigating these uncertain times.

Main Topics Covered:

Jim’s perspective on market corrections and advice for investors during volatile periods, emphasizing emotional discipline and long-term thinking.The economic implications of tariffs, debunking the notion that they’re inflationary and exploring their contractionary effects.Critique of Federal Reserve policy, including their unprecedented actions and failure to ease despite market signals of deflation risk.Analysis of the U.S. dollar’s value and its impact on trade competitiveness, proposing a weaker dollar as an alternative to tariffs.The resilience of the private sector, bolstered by strong balance sheets and liquidity, as a buffer against recession fears.Thoughts on government debt, executive overreach, and Trump administration policies like deregulation and immigration.Investment strategies for the current environment.

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler is joined by special co-host Bogumil Baranowski to sit down with Chris Mayer. As the author of the acclaimed book 100 Baggers: Stocks That Return 100-to-1 and How to Find Them, former editor of influential newsletters, and co-founder of Woodlock House Family Capital, Chris brings a wealth of experience and a unique perspective to the table. In this conversation, we dive deep into the world of long-term investing, exploring timeless principles, the impact of AI on future opportunities, and the mindset required to identify and hold onto extraordinary businesses. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just starting out, this episode is packed with wisdom to help you navigate the markets with patience and purpose.

Main Topics Covered:

The potential for 100-bagger stocks in emerging industries like AI and how time reveals the winners.

The "twin engines" of growth and multiples, and why great businesses often trade at high valuations.

The merits and challenges of concentrated investing in a market dominated by giants like the "Mag Seven."

Strategies for dealing with drawdowns and maintaining conviction in great companies through volatility.

The importance of aligning investment strategies with the right type of capital, especially for family wealth.

How experiences as a banker, newsletter editor, and board member shape a business-owner mindset.

The role of boards in capital allocation and setting incentives that drive long-term value.

Insights from general semantics as a tool for critical thinking and avoiding investment pitfalls.

The power of journaling to track evolving thoughts and foster humility in investing.

Why patience is the ultimate lesson for investors and how to tune out market noise.

In this episode, we are joined by Rick Ferri, a renowned advocate for low-cost, evidence-based investing. With the market in the midst of a significant selloff, it was a great time to get Rick’s practical wisdom on navigating market volatility, maintaining simplicity in investing, and making informed portfolio decisions amidst economic uncertainty. With his disciplined approach and decades of experience, Rick shares actionable advice for investors looking to stay the course through today’s challenges. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just starting out, this discussion offers valuable perspectives to help you achieve long-term financial success.

Main Topics Covered:

Strategies for handling market uncertainty and avoiding rash decisions during volatile times.

The benefits of simplicity in investing and why the industry pushes complexity.

Debunking the myth of the "dead" 60/40 portfolio and tailoring asset allocation to individual needs.

Practical tips for sticking to your asset allocation through market ups and downs.

How inflation impacts portfolios and why personal inflation rates matter.

The case for international diversification and its long-term benefits.

Thoughts on economic policies like tariffs and their potential effects on markets.

Direct indexing: who it’s for, who it’s not for, and how it’s often oversold.

Why active management struggles to outperform, despite persistent marketing efforts.

Evaluating alternative investments like private credit and their risks.

Addressing the "age in bonds" rule of thumb and its relevance for different investors.

Questions to ask financial advisors to ensure you’re getting value for your fees.

Rick’s evolution as an investor and the four stages to simplicity.

An overview of the Core Four portfolio and its alignment with economic realities.

Approaches to rebalancing and when to let asset allocations glide.

Rick’s unique view on separating advisor fees for advice and asset management.

In this episode, we dive into the current economic landscape and its implications for investors with Andy Constan, founder of Damped Spring Advisors. Andy shares his expert analysis on the U.S. economy’s trajectory, the impact of policy shifts under the new administration, and the tools investors should consider—or avoid—in today’s volatile markets. From navigating the “slowdown sea” to unpacking the effects of tariffs and national debt, this conversation offers a deep dive into the forces shaping financial conditions and what it all means for your portfolio. Don’t miss Andy’s unique perspectives, including his contrarian take on quantitative easing!

Main Topics Covered:

Andy’s “Island Framework” and the current economic slowdown, including his shift from “Higher for Longer Island” to the “Slowdown Sea” en route to “Recession Island.”

The alignment of Trump, Powell, and Bessant’s goals to slow growth and curb inflation, and why this favors bonds over stocks.

The role and relevance of the “Trump Put” and “Powell Put” in today’s market, and why they’re farther out of the money than many expect.

The economic impact of proposed policies like tariffs, immigration restrictions, and expenditure cuts, including the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiative.

The national debt debate: its mechanics, risks, and why Andy sees it as a burden on future generations.

Long-term inflation drivers, including demographics, productivity, and deglobalization’s inflationary pressures.

The Federal Reserve’s current position, its balance sheet challenges, and its flexibility to respond to economic shifts.The mechanics and pitfalls of leveraged ETFs, and why they’re a poor choice for long-term investors.

Andy’s contrarian view on quantitative easing as inherently pro-growth and inflationary, despite the 2008-2018 experience.

Join us for an insightful conversation with Cullen Roche, a renowned financial expert from Discipline Funds, as he breaks down some of the most pressing economic and market topics impacting investors today. Hosted by Justin and Jack, this episode of Excess Returns dives into a "fact and fiction" style discussion, where Cullen unpacks complex issues like Federal Reserve policies, tariffs, and the national debt with clarity and nuance. With his knack for simplifying the mechanics of markets and the economy, Cullen offers a fresh perspective on what’s really happening—and what it means for your financial future. Check out more about Cullen’s work at disciplinefunds.com.

Main Topics Covered:

The Fed and Soft Landing: Cullen evaluates whether the Federal Reserve has successfully managed inflation and engineered a soft landing, reframing the analogy as stabilizing an economy in flight rather than landing it.
Tariffs and Inflation: A deep dive into Trump’s tariff policies, exploring their impact as a corporate tax, their potential to drive inflation, and whether they can bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S.
National Debt Concerns: Cullen shares his take on the U.S. national debt, downplaying immediate risks while acknowledging the long-term inflationary dangers of unchecked government spending creep.
DOGE and Deficit Reduction: Thoughts on the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), its potential to cut waste, and the challenges of moving the needle given the dominance of entitlements and defense spending.
AI’s Economic Impact: How artificial intelligence might boost productivity, its limits in transforming retail demand, and whether it offsets tariff-related economic pressures.
Bond vs. Stock Market Smarts: Cullen debunks the myth that the bond market is inherently smarter than the stock market, emphasizing both are efficient in their own right.
Mortgage Rates and Housing: A look at whether we’ll see ultra-low mortgage rates (like 3%) again, driven by secular trends in technology and population growth.
Crypto Reserve Fund: Cullen critiques the idea of a U.S. crypto reserve, arguing it diverts resources from productive economic investments.
Leg Day Economics: A lighthearted yet serious take on why leg day matters—not just for fitness, but for longevity and stability.

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Ziegler is joined by Lindsey Bell, Chief Market Strategist of Clearnomics, and Shannon Saccocia, Chief Investment Officer of Wealth at Neuberger Berman. They dive deep into the current market volatility and economic uncertainties facing investors. From tariff concerns to shifting consumer behaviors, they provide valuable insights on navigating these challenging times while maintaining a long-term investment perspective.

Key topics discussed:

• Tariffs and Market Uncertainty: How ongoing tariff discussions are creating business uncertainty, affecting pricing decisions, and potentially impacting economic growth

• Consumer Resilience: Analysis of consumer spending patterns, the importance of employment stability, and how different consumer segments are responding to economic pressures

• GDP Growth Projections: Examination of current GDP forecasts, including the Atlanta Fed's concerning Q1 projections, and why these numbers might be overly pessimistic

• Federal Reserve Strategy: Discussion on potential interest rate cuts for 2025, how the Fed is balancing inflation concerns with economic growth, and the challenges of monetary policy during tariff implementation

• Market Broadening: Insights on investment rotation beyond the Magnificent 7 tech stocks into sectors like healthcare, financials, and consumer discretionary

• International Investment Opportunities: Why investors should consider international exposure, particularly in European markets and potentially emerging markets including China

Buy Barry's Book

https://amzn.to/3F7APZP

In this initial episode of Rabbithole of our new show Rabbithole, Dave Nadig explores the psychology of money and investing with Barry Ritholtz, author of "How Not to Invest."

Their conversation challenges conventional financial wisdom and reveals insights about what money is, and how we use and invest it.

Key topics include:

Why money is a tool for freedom and agency, not a store of value or end goal

How childhood experiences shape our lifelong money behaviors and attitudes

Why market crashes affect us differently at various life stages

The dangers of algorithmic social media and information overload for investors

Why avoiding mistakes is more important than chasing extraordinary returns

Rethinking Bitcoin and other investments through better framing

The wisdom of humility in financial decision-making

Barry shares candid personal stories and draws on decades of experience as a trader, strategist, and wealth manager to identify the ideas, numbers, and behaviors that typically destroy wealth.

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In this episode of Excess Returns, Justin and Matt welcome back investment strategist Mike Green for an in-depth conversation about the current state of markets, economic trends, and geopolitical developments.Mike shares his unique perspective on several key topics:Why traditional economic indicators like unemployment claims no longer accurately reflect economic reality due to the rise of the gig economy

How the Fed's interest rate hikes have counterintuitively benefited wealthy individuals through increased interest income

The strategic reasoning behind Trump administration policies, particularly regarding China, Russia, and global tradeAn analysis of market dynamics, including the mechanical nature of passive investing and its impact on price movements

Insights on inflation measurement challenges and the role of seasonal adjustments in recent dataThe conversation also explores how current political and economic conditions mirror historical patterns, with Mike drawing thought-provoking parallels to past societal transformations. He explains why the S&P 500's strong performance masks weakness in other market segments and offers his perspective on what investors should consider in today's environment.

Whether you're interested in markets, economics, or the intersection of politics and investing, this episode provides valuable insights from one of today's most original financial thinkers.

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In this episode, Larry Swedroe shares nine critical lessons that the markets taught investors in 2024. Drawing from decades of experience, Larry explains why market forecasts consistently fail, why valuations can't be used for market timing, and how seemingly obvious economic events often lead to surprising market outcomes.

Larry dives deep into the concept of "self-healing mechanisms" in markets, explaining how periods of poor performance often set the stage for strong future returns. He uses fascinating examples from reinsurance to value stocks to illustrate this principle.

The discussion also covers why "Sell in May and Go Away" is a dangerous myth, why active management continues to disappoint, and why proper diversification means always having some parts of your portfolio that aren't performing well.

Larry also explains why investors keep making the same mistakes and how they can break free from common behavioral biases.

The conversation includes practical insights on:

Why even a perfect economic crystal ball wouldn't help you predict markets

The dangers of judging investment strategies by their outcomes rather than their process

Why patience and discipline are crucial for investment success

How to think about diversification in a world dominated by large tech stocks

Whether you're a seasoned investor or just starting out, this episode offers valuable perspectives on building resilient portfolios and avoiding common investment pitfalls.

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In this episode of Excess Returns, Justin and Jack sit down with Scott McBride, CEO and portfolio manager at Hotchkis and Wiley, to explore the approach that has allowed them to succeed during a time when many other value investors have failed. McBride, with 24 years at the firm, shares insights into how their team has achieved impressive results by being willing to think differently from consensus.

Key topics discussed:

How market sentiment and emotion create opportunities for long-term investors

The importance of having the right team culture and being comfortable with contrarian positions

Their approach to valuing companies beyond traditional metrics like P/E ratiosWhy catalysts aren't necessary for investment success if you get valuation and governance right

Their perspective on international markets, particularly opportunities in Europe and the UK

Thoughts on AI's impact on businesses and investment analysis

The growing influence of passive investing and how it creates opportunities

McBride explains why having fewer analysts covering certain stocks can create opportunities, and why focusing on business quality, strong balance sheets, and good governance is crucial for long-term success. He also shares valuable insights about maintaining flexibility in investment approach rather than being dogmatic about any single strategy.

Whether you're an experienced investor or just starting out, this conversation offers practical wisdom about what works in value investing over the long term.

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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Mike Taylor, portfolio manager of Simplify's PINK healthcare ETF, for a fascinating discussion about how he mansges his personal portfolio. Drawing from his extensive experience at firms like Citadel and Millennium, Mike shares candid insights about what makes a successful investor and his portfolio construction process. Key topics include:Why having "skin in the game" matters when managing fundsThe critical elements he looks for in high-conviction investmentsHis unique approach to international investing and macro trendsValuable lessons learned from working at top hedge fundsHis perspective on retirement and career longevity in financeThoughts on demographic challenges facing global marketsMike brings both humor and deep expertise to this conversation, offering rare insights into how a veteran hedge fund manager thinks about markets, risk, and portfolio construction. Whether you're a professional investor or individual managing your own portfolio, this episode provides valuable perspectives on navigating today's complex market environment.

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Welcome to Click Beta - where three market professionals cut through the financial clickbait to have real conversations about what matters. In this premiere episode, hosts Matt Zigler, Jason Buck, and Dave Nadig dive into pressing topics like trade wars, tariffs, and their real-world impacts on small businesses and manufacturing. The conversation flows from corporate-subsidized jobs to cryptocurrency grifts, and wraps up with a fascinating discussion about the future of local economies and digital communities.Unlike typical financial content, Click Beta brings you unscripted, unfiltered perspectives from three different corners of the financial world - financial planning, fund management, and product strategy. Join us monthly as we analyze headlines, share insights, and figure out what really matters for investors and professionals alike.

Market Wizards author Jack Schwager returns for another fascinating conversation about trading psychology, risk management, and lessons learned from interviewing the world's top traders. In this wide-ranging discussion, Schwager shares stories from his early career as a market analyst in the 1970s, his transition to writing the influential Market Wizards series, and his personal journey understanding that his talents lay in analyzing and writing about trading rather than trading itself.Key highlights include:The origin story of how Schwager landed his first job and serendipitously replaced Michael MarcusCritical insights about the unchanging nature of human psychology in markets despite technological evolutionWhy risk management principles remain constant even as trading strategies evolveFascinating stories about legendary traders like George Soros, Stanley Druckenmiller, and Ed ThorpThe important distinction between volatility and true risk in marketsA preview of Schwager's upcoming book project with co-author George CoyleWhether you're a veteran trader or new to markets, this conversation offers timeless wisdom about successful trading, the entrepreneurial mindset required to succeed, and the importance of understanding your own strengths and limitations.Watch for Jack's memorable explanation of Bruce Kovner's famous advice: "Know where you're getting out before you get in."

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In this episode, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler discuss their fascinating interview with AQR founder Cliff Asness. They explore several key topics from their conversation, including:Cliff's humorous take on morning routines and why correlation doesn't equal causation when it comes to success habitsThe "Less Efficient Market Hypothesis" and why Cliff believes markets may be becoming less efficient over time, particularly evident in the dot-com bubble and 2019-2020 market eventsA thoughtful discussion on passive investing's impact on markets, including Cliff's perspective on what percentage of passive investing might be sustainableThe importance of getting comfortable with investment discomfort, especially when following factor strategies that can experience long periods of underperformanceAn insightful discussion about the evolution of factor investing and whether factors need intuitive explanations to be validCliff's key advice for average investors: look at your portfolio as little as possible to avoid making emotional decisionsThe episode showcases Cliff's unique ability to combine deep quantitative insights with humor and practical wisdom, making complex investment concepts accessible and entertaining. Don't miss this conversation with one of the most influential figures in quantitative investing.

In this episode of Excess Returns, Jack Forehand and special guest host Perth Tolle sit down with Rob Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates and pioneer of fundamental indexing. Rob discusses his thought-provoking article "50 Years of Innovation, Myth Making and Myth Busting," written for the 50th anniversary of the Journal of Portfolio Management.The conversation covers several critical investing myths and insights, including:The evolution of fundamental indexing and why "smart beta" has lost its meaningWhy historical returns can be deceptive when estimating future equity risk premiumsThe surprising truth about long-term forecasting in marketsThe impact of index funds on market efficiency and stock pricesWhy buybacks aren't necessarily equivalent to dividendsThe challenges facing U.S. growth stocks at current valuationsRob brings over four decades of investment experience to this discussion, offering candid perspectives on market valuation, index fund dynamics, and the future of passive investing. His insights are particularly valuable for investors trying to navigate today's complex market environment.

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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Doug Clinton of Intelligent Alpha to explore the fascinating intersection of AI and investment strategy. We discussed how Doug is using large language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini to build portfolios that aim to beat the market over time.Doug shares insights from his experience launching managing AI-powered investment strategies. We dive deep into how these models actually work behind the scenes, exploring everything from portfolio construction and stock selection to position sizing and rebalancing. Doug explains how LLMs can combine quantitative and qualitative analysis in ways that traditional quant models can't, while maintaining the advantage of being free from emotional biases that often plague human investors.We also explore broader implications for the future of investment management, discussing whether AI might eventually replace human analysts and portfolio managers, or if the future lies in human-AI collaboration. The conversation wraps up with Doug's thoughts on the rapid evolution of AI technology beyond investing, including his predictions for personal AI assistants and the potential emergence of artificial general intelligence (AGI).Whether you're an investment professional curious about AI's role in the industry or simply interested in understanding how technology is reshaping asset management, this episode offers valuable insights into what the future might hold.

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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, for a wide-ranging discussion about markets, the economy, and investing. We explore her unique perspective on the current market environment, including her views on the end of the "Great Moderation" era and the transition to what she calls the "Temperamental Era" - a period likely to bring more volatility in both inflation and economic growth.Liz Ann shares invaluable insights about the importance of looking beyond headline index numbers to understand what's really happening in markets, the difference between behavioral and attitudinal sentiment indicators, and why changes in economic trends often matter more than absolute levels. We also discuss the evolution of market structure, including the impact of passive investing, and she shares some of the most important lessons she learned from working with legendary investor Marty Zweig.Drawing on her decades of experience, Liz Ann explains why investors should focus less on trying to predict the future and more on making sound decisions along the way. Whether you're interested in understanding current market dynamics or looking for timeless investing wisdom, this conversation offers something for investors at every level.Join us for this insightful discussion where we break down complex market topics into understandable concepts that can help inform your investment decisions.

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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Kai Wu, founder of Sparkline Capital, for a fascinating discussion about intangible value investing and its global applications. Kai shares his expertise on using machine learning and natural language processing to identify companies rich in intellectual property, brand equity, human capital, and network effects.

We explore why U.S. firms have historically outperformed many international counterparts, with Kai explaining how the gap in intangible asset investment has been a crucial factor.We discuss:How traditional value metrics miss important aspects of modern company valueThe four pillars of intangible value: IP, brand equity, human capital, and network effectsWhy international markets have lagged the U.S. and how intangible value can help close this gapThe role of AI and machine learning in modern investment analysisA surprising analysis of global patent leadershipThis episode offers valuable insights for investors interested in both value investing and international diversification. Whether you're a quantitative investor or just interested in understanding how modern companies create value, you'll find plenty to think about in this discussion.

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In this episode, we explore one of investing's most debated topics: international diversification. Through clips from 10 different investing experts, we examine whether U.S. investors truly need international exposure in their portfolios.Key topics include:What actually constitutes "international exposure" in today's interconnected marketsWhy U.S. stocks have dominated for so long and whether this trend can continueThe role of currency exposure in international investingHow passive investing flows affect international marketsDifferent perspectives on optimal international allocation strategiesFeaturing insights from renowned investors and experts including Corey Hoffstein, Meb Faber, Dan Rasmussen, Larry Swedroe, Cullen Roche, Dan Villalon, Rick Ferri, Jason Buck, Mike Green, and Andy Constan, this episode offers a nuanced look at the complexities of global investing and helps viewers understand the various approaches to international diversification.Whether you're wondering if you should invest internationally or questioning your current allocation, this discussion provides valuable perspectives to help inform your investment decisions.

In this episode of Excess Returns, hosts Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau sit down with Jacob Pozharny, partner at Bridgeway Capital Management, to explore the increasingly important role of intangible assets in modern investing.Jacob breaks down what intangible assets are - from intellectual property and proprietary algorithms to brand value and customer relationships - and explains how these harder-to-measure assets are changing traditional investment approaches. He discusses Bridgeway's pioneering research on "intangible intensity" and how it affects their investment strategy, particularly for high vs. low intangible companies.

Key topics covered:How intangible assets complicate traditional valuation metricsWhy sentiment analysis matters more for high-intangible companiesThe implications of AI for intangible asset valuationBridgeway's approach to long-short investingInternational investing opportunities and market efficiencyThe importance of understanding model assumptions and staying humble as an investorWhether you're interested in quantitative investing, understanding modern valuation frameworks, or keeping up with evolving market dynamics, this conversation offers valuable insights into how one of the industry's leading firms approaches these challenges.

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In this episode of Excess Returns, hosts Justin and Matt sit down with Bob Elliott, founder of Unlimited Funds, to explore the fascinating world of multi-strategy hedge funds, also known as "pod shops." Bob breaks down how these complex investment vehicles work, discussing their unique structure where multiple portfolio managers operate independently while sharing infrastructure and risk management resources.The conversation covers crucial topics including:How pod shops attract and compensate top trading talentThe economics and fee structures of modern hedge fundsRisk management challenges when running multiple strategiesThe evolution from traditional hedge funds to pod shop modelsThe impact of growing assets under management on performanceThe emergence of ETFs as alternatives to hedge fund strategiesDrawing from his extensive experience in the hedge fund industry, Bob provides unique insights into why pod shops have captured headlines despite representing only a fraction of the overall hedge fund industry. He also discusses his current work at Unlimited Funds, where he's working to make hedge fund strategies more accessible through ETF structures.

In this episode of Excess Returns, Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau sit down with Dan Rasmussen from Verdad Advisers to discuss his firm's top research pieces from the past year. They explore several fascinating market insights, including:Why high bond yields don't necessarily translate to high returnsThe dramatic outperformance of U.S. markets post-financial crisis and the potential opportunity in cheaper international stocksHow private equity return dispersion may be more about portfolio construction than manager skillThe promising changes happening in Japanese corporate governanceBritain's market valuation in the wake of BrexitDan also announces his upcoming book "The Humble Investor" which challenges common assumptions about predictability in markets. Throughout the conversation, he offers thought-provoking perspectives on market efficiency, the limitations of forecasting, and why humility is crucial for investment success.Whether you're an institutional investor or individual market participant, this discussion provides valuable insights into contrarian investment opportunities and challenges prevailing market narratives with data-driven analysis.

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In this episode of Excess Returns, hosts Justin and Jack sit down with Andrew Beer of Dynamic Beta Investments to explore the fascinating world of managed futures and alternative investment strategies. Andrew, who manages over a billion dollars in assets, shares valuable insights on why managed futures remain underutilized despite their proven benefits for portfolio diversification.The conversation dives deep into several key topics:How to effectively communicate complex investment strategies to clientsWhy the narrative around managed futures is just as important as their performanceThe challenges of getting investors to adopt alternative strategies despite their clear statistical benefitsHow Dynamic Beta replicates hedge fund strategies in a cost-effective ETF wrapperThe importance of simplicity in investment strategies and why complexity isn't always betterAndrew also discusses the evolution of the ETF landscape, the role of artificial intelligence in investment management, and why maintaining a steady, unchanging strategy has been crucial to his firm's success. Whether you're an investment professional or individual investor, this discussion offers valuable perspectives on portfolio diversification and the future of alternative investments.

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In this episode, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler dive deep into one of the most debated topics in modern finance with special guest Dave Nadig. This episode explores how passive investing has transformed markets, featuring insights from leading experts including Mike Green, Aswath Damodaran, Rick Ferri, Rob Arnott, and Cliff Asness.Key discussions:Why active investing's poor performance led to passive's riseHow index fund flows might affect market dynamicsThe difference between stocks in and out of major indicesWhether passive investing could potentially destabilize marketsWhat this means for individual investorsWhether you're a market professional or retail investor, this conversation offers crucial insights into how passive investing is reshaping financial markets and what it means for your portfolio.Featured Guests' Clips:Aswath Damodaran on active management's track recordMike Green on passive investing mechanicsRick Ferri with the counterargumentRob Arnott on index inclusion effectsCem Karsan on why active may rise againCliff Asness offering a balanced perspective

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with veteran investment strategist Jim Paulsen to discuss the current market landscape and economic outlook. Paulsen, author of Paulson Perspectives on Substack, shares unique insights on why traditional recession indicators have failed, how Main Street sentiment impacts markets, and why he remains optimistic despite widespread pessimism.Key topics include:Why the Fed's recent approach differs from historical patternsThe changing nature of market valuationsThe impact of technology on profit productivityWhy consumer confidence remains surprisingly lowThe future of long-term bond yieldsDrawing from over 40 years of market experience, Paulsen offers a data-driven yet practical perspective on where markets may be heading and why many conventional indicators may need updating for today's economy.

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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with AQR founder Cliff Asness for a fascinating discussion about market efficiency, behavioral finance, and the future of quantitative investing. In this wide-ranging conversation, we explore Cliff's recent paper "The Less Efficient Market Hypothesis" and discuss why markets might actually be becoming less efficient over time, despite advances in technology – a counterintuitive but compelling argument.We dig into how social media and constant connectivity might be making markets more prone to extremes, the real impact of passive investing, and why periods of market irrationality might last longer than ever before. Cliff shares his perspective on the current market concentration in the Magnificent Seven stocks and offers insights on high-volatility alternatives from his latest paper.The conversation also covers the role of intuition in factor investing, inflation's impact on markets, and ends with Cliff's essential advice for the average investor. Throughout the discussion, Cliff brings his characteristic mix of academic rigor and practical wisdom, peppered with his unique brand of humor.Whether you're a quant enthusiast, professional investor, or just interested in understanding today's markets better, this conversation offers valuable insights from one of the industry's most influential voices.

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In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler is joined by Ben Hunt and Grant Williams for a candid discussion of the 2024 post-election landscape and its implications for markets. The guests explore how trust, or lack thereof, shapes both political and market narratives, examining the transformation of capital markets into what they describe as a "political utility" where "number go up" has become the prevailing faith.Key topics include:Analysis of shifting market dynamics and investment philosophiesThe challenges of maintaining long-term perspective in a speculation-driven environmentHow inflation and institutional trust impact market behaviorThe distinction between investment and speculation in modern marketsPractical considerations for navigating uncertain economic conditionsThis wide-ranging conversation offers valuable insights for investors trying to understand the intersection of politics, markets, and human behavior in today's complex financial landscape.

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In this episode of Excess Returns, Jack Forehand and special guest host Brent Kochuba dive deep into the world of long volatility and tail risk strategies with Kris Sidial, founder of the Ambrus Group. Kris shares invaluable insights from his experience managing volatility-focused strategies and navigating major market events.🔑 Key Topics Covered:How long volatility strategies work and their role in investment portfoliosBehind-the-scenes look at managing vol strategies during market crashesThe August 2023 volatility event and what really happenedEvolution of the derivatives market and its impact on tradingThe truth about market liquidity and short volatility positioningHow retail options trading has changed market dynamicsKris provides a fascinating glimpse into how vol traders operate during market stress events, explaining how these strategies aim to deliver explosive returns during market crashes while minimizing losses during normal conditions. He also discusses the psychological challenges of running these strategies and the importance of having both quantitative and discretionary elements in volatility trading.Whether you're an institutional investor, retail trader, or just interested in understanding market dynamics better, this episode offers valuable perspectives on an often misunderstood corner of the investment world.

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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Ian Cassel, founder of MicroCap Club and Intelligent Fanatics Capital Management. We explore the fascinating world of microcap investing, where Ian shares his expertise in finding and investing in ultra-small public companies.We dive deep into Ian's investment philosophy, discussing how he identifies promising microcap companies, the importance of finding exceptional management teams, and his approach to portfolio management. We cover:- What defines a microcap stock and the size of the microcap universe- The concept of "intelligent fanatics" and its importance in small company investing- Why profitability and management quality are crucial filters- How Ian approaches position sizing and portfolio concentration- The importance of setting proper capacity constraints in microcap investing- Why turnover can actually be beneficial in microcap portfolios- Red flags for individual investors to watch out forWhether you're an experienced investor or just getting started, this conversation offers valuable insights into an often overlooked corner of the market where significant opportunities can still be found.

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In this episode, we are joined by Simplify Asset Management's Mike Green. We build on our previous episodes with Mike where we discussed his research on the impact of passive investing on the market and focus on its practical implications and how it impacts how investors construct their portfolios. We discuss the types of equity strategies that would benefit the most from the rise of passive, whether a factor could be constructed based on Mike's research, different strategies that might hedge a potential market decline triggered by passive and a lot more.

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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Larry Swedroe to tackle some of the most pressing issues in investing today.We dive deep into topics that are on many investors' minds, including:Is value investing still effective in today's market?How is the rise of passive investing impacting market efficiency?Should we be concerned about market concentration?Is international diversification still important?What role will artificial intelligence play in investing?Larry brings his decades of experience and research to bear, challenging common assumptions and offering nuanced perspectives that often go against conventional wisdom. We explore the importance of maintaining a long-term view, the dangers of recency bias, and why Larry believes hyper-diversification across multiple asset classes may be beneficial for investors.We also discuss factor investing, the increasing role of alternatives, and how individual investors can approach portfolio construction in our evolving market landscape.

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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Ben Carlson, Director of Institutional Asset Management at Ritholtz Wealth and author of the popular investing blog "A Wealth of Common Sense." We discussed his insightful article "15 Ways to Lose Money in the Markets," which outlines major mistakes investors make and how to avoid them.We explore a variety of topics, including:- The dangers of market timing and why it's so difficult to get right- Why investors shouldn't blindly follow advice from billionaires or pundits- The importance of not overreacting to short-term market volatility- How to approach active vs. passive investing strategies- The pitfalls of trying to get rich overnight and the value of long-term investing- Why it's crucial to avoid selling during bear markets- The risks of being overly pessimistic about markets and the economyBen provided valuable insights on each of these topics, emphasizing the importance of having a long-term perspective, avoiding big mistakes, and sticking to a well-thought-out investment plan. This conversation offers valuable lessons for investors at all levels, from beginners to seasoned professionals.

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In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Cem Karsan of Kai Volatility Advisors for an in-depth discussion on the current state of markets and the global economy. We explore:- How geopolitical events in the Middle East and Ukraine are impacting markets and risk- Cem's views on inflation, recent Fed actions, and market flows- The impact of options positioning and market structure on volatility- Cem's outlook for the remainder of 2023 and into 2024- Historical patterns around elections and how they may apply today- Thoughts on the rise of passive investing and potential shifts ahead- Perspectives on AI as both a productivity driver and investment themeCem shares his unique insights on how the current market backdrop compares to other periods of elevated populism and inflation, and what that could mean for returns and investor behavior going forward.

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In this episode, Matt sits down with Brent Donnelly, author of "50 Trades in 50 Weeks: One Year of Good Ideas, Dumb Mistakes, and Timeless Trading Lessons". Brent spent close to a year conducting a unique experiment where he created and executed one unique trade every week across a wide variety of markets and asset classes. We discuss what he learned from the experience. We also delve into the concept of edge in investing and the challenges of maintaining one in evolving markets, the importance of narrative, the challenges of transitioning from backtesting to live trading, the crucial role of adaptation in markets and a lot more.

In this episode, we dive deep into the world of options and their impact on market dynamics. We start with an "Options Dealer Flows 101" primer, explaining key concepts like delta hedging, gamma, charm, and vanna to help viewers understand how options flows can drive stock prices.We then analyze the current market situation heading into the September 2024 options expiration, one of the biggest of the year. We explore the outsized influence of Nvidia options activity, discuss potential outcomes from the upcoming FOMC meeting, and examine how bond-equity correlations are shifting.We break down why understanding options flows is crucial even for long-term investors who don't trade options themselves. Using real-world examples, we illustrate how options positioning can create market volatility and reversals around key dates.Whether you're an options trader or just want to better understand what's moving markets, this episode provides valuable insights into the hidden forces shaping stock prices. Join us as we unpack the complex world of options and their far-reaching effects on the broader market.SPOTGAMMA'S NEW PRODUCT - TRACE THE MARKEThttps://spotgamma.com/trace-the-market-excess-returns/?aff=Excess

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sat down with Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research and YardeniQuickTakes.com. Ed is one of the most accurate and respected Wall Street strategists, and we were excited to discuss his views on the economy, markets, and forecasting.

We covered a wide range of topics, including:Ed's outlook for inflation and the economyWhy he believes we could be entering a "Roaring 20s" period for the stock marketHis thoughts on why we might see fewer Fed rate cuts than many expectThe characteristics that make a good economic forecasterThe potential impact of AI on the economyHis views on the upcoming election and its market implicationsThe long-term underperformance of value vs growth stocksEd's approach to sector allocation and market breadth

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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with our good friend Adam Butler, co-founder and Chief Investment Officer of ReSolve Asset Management. We cover a lot of ground, including: The challenge of distinguishing investment edge from noise over typical investing lifetimesThe concept of return stacking and how it allows investors to increase portfolio diversificationThe process of determining sources of return to stack on top of stock and bond portfoliosThe impact of passive investing flows on market dynamics and fundamentalsPerspectives on whether AI will significantly boost economic productivity and GDP growthAs always, Adam offers thoughtful and sometimes contrarian views on these complex subjects, drawing on his extensive experience in quantitative investing and portfolio management.

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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sat down with NYU professor Aswath Damodaran to discuss his new book on the corporate life cycle and get his insights on a wide range of investing topics.We cover:- How companies age and why they struggle to act their age- The importance of storytelling in valuation- Aswath's thoughts on factor investing and its limitations- The rise of passive investing and its impact on markets- Market concentration and the dominance of big tech companies- How Aswath approaches his own investing decisions- The potential impact of AI on investing and valuation- Why Aswath has never attended the Berkshire Hathaway annual meetingAswath shares his unique perspectives on these topics, blending academic rigor with practical insights. He also offers his advice for the average investor, emphasizing the importance of focusing on preserving and growing wealth rather than chasing outsized returns.Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, this wide-ranging conversation offers valuable food for thought on navigating today's complex markets.

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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Jason Buck of Mutiny Funds to examine the idea of stocks for the long run and some potential challenges to it. We discuss:- Why the impressive historical returns of the US stock market may be an outlier- The importance of looking at real returns vs nominal returns- How to build a diversified portfolio to handle different economic scenarios- The concept of "fractal diversification" in portfolio construction- Rethinking sustainable withdrawal rates in retirement- The pros and cons of using leverage in a diversified portfolio- Unconventional investing beliefs that go against the mainstreamSEE LATEST EPISODES⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://excessreturnspod.com

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In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Andy Constan, founder of DampedSpring . We cover a wide range of topics, including recent market volatility, the broader economic outlook, and Andy's perspectives on inflation and monetary policy. Andy shares his framework for analyzing deleveraging events, emphasizes the importance of thinking in probabilities for market outcomes, and discusses potential long-term impacts of factors like AI and deglobalization on the economy. We explore his views on different economic scenarios and the Federal Reserve's actions. As always, Andy provides nuanced insights into market analysis and investment decisions, making for a thought-provoking conversation.

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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Meb Faber, founder of Cambria Investment Management, to discuss his unconventional views on investing that often go against mainstream opinions. We explore a wide range of topics, including the Federal Reserve's performance, dividend investing strategies, international diversification for U.S. investors, trend following, and the relationship between interest rates and stock market valuations. Throughout our conversation, Meb challenges common investing beliefs and provided evidence-based perspectives on various aspects of the market. We all can benefit from challenging our own strongly held investing beliefs and we hope this episode will help you do that as it did for us.

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In this episode of Excess Returns, our good friend Matt Ziegler interviews retirement planning expert Wade Pfau. They discuss key concepts in retirement income planning, including the 4% rule, variable withdrawal strategies, and Pfau's "safety first" approach. They discuss Wade's work on retirement income styles and the RISA (Retirement Income Style Awareness) framework he developed to help retirees and advisors determine appropriate strategies. They also explore topics like the benefits of delaying Social Security, the role of annuities in retirement planning, and managing sequence of returns risk. Wade also shares insights on tax-efficient withdrawals, evolving retirement challenges, and balancing frugality with enjoying life in the present.

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In this episode of Excess Returns, we take a deep dive into value investing with our good friend Tobias Carlisle. We discuss the recent outperformance of small cap and value stocks, tackle the challenges of long periods of underperformance for value strategies, and examine how Tobias constructs his portfolios. We delve into his process for selecting stocks, including his focus on companies trading at discounts using the Acquirer's multiple and his approach to portfolio diversification. Our conversation also touches on the dominance of large tech companies and whether their outsized returns can continue. Throughout our discussion, Tobias emphasizes the importance of patience, skepticism about growth projections, and prioritizing survival over maximizing returns when investing.

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In this episode of Excess Returns, we speak with Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research about his unique systematic approach to analyzing markets. We explore his outlook for the second half of 2024, discussing topics like the future of the 60/40 portfolio, inflation trends, labor market indicators, earnings expectations, and the impact of AI on productivity. Warren shares insights on market breadth, his newly launched quality-driven ETF strategy, and interesting perspectives on seasonality and retail sentiment. We also touch on his approach to combining systematic and discretionary investing methods. This wide-ranging conversation offers valuable insights for investors navigating the current market environment, showcasing Warren's ability to think outside the box and identify unique market opportunities.

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In this episode we have a fascinating discussion with Mike Green of Simplify about the ongoing impact of passive investing on markets. Mike shares insights from recent academic research supporting his thesis and discusses how the risks of passive may play out over time. We also explore potential risks from increased options usage and the short volatility trade. In the second half, we turn to the economy. Mike provides his views on inflation, recession risks, and Fed policy. He explains his concerns about bifurcation in the economy and markets, with different segments experiencing very different conditions. We conclude by discussing Mike's approach to hedging credit spread risks. Overall, Mike offers his usual thought-provoking perspectives on a wide range of market dynamics and risks.

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In this episode from our sister podcast Two Quants and a Financial Planner, we dive into the key lessons we took from our recent conversation with Rick Ferrii on Excess Returns.

If you enjoy the episode and want to receive future episodes of the podcast, please subscribe by searching Two Quants and a Financial Planner on your favorite podcast platform.

We explore Rick's approach to simple, low-cost investing and discuss how his insights apply to various investment strategies, including factor investing. We cover topics such as favoring simplicity, the enduring relevance of the 60/40 portfolio, the importance of fees, and looking to history for guidance. Throughout the discussion, we relate Rick's ideas to our own experiences in quantitative investing and financial planning, offering our perspectives on how these principles can be applied in practice. We also have some fun connecting each lesson to a KISS song. Our goal is to break down Rick's wisdom and show how it can benefit investors across different approaches and philosophies.

In this episode of Excess Returns, we dive deep into the world of macroeconomics with Bob Elliott of Unlimited Funds. We explore a wide range of topics, including inflation, the Federal Reserve's policies, and the overall state of the economy. Bob shares his insights on how market price targets can be evaluated from a fundamental perspective and discusses the role of gold in a diversified portfolio. We also touch on the complexities of investing in hedge funds and the impact of fiscal policies on market dynamics.

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In our latest episode of Show Us Your Portfolio, we speak with Standpoint's Eric Crittenden. Eric discusses the all weather approach he uses to construct his personal portfoio. He emphasizes maximizing "true wealth" per unit of risk, which he defines as compounded returns after accounting for all costs, taxes, and inflation. Eric's all-weather investment approach, which combines global equities, bonds and a systematic global macro program investing in various uncorrelated markets. He discusses the importance of diversification beyond traditional stock and bond portfolios, his views on homeownership, wealth transfer to children, and the value of focusing on health and sleep. Eric also shares insights on risk management, the challenges of investor behavior, and the importance of getting the basics right in investing.

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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Rick Ferri to discuss a wide range of investing topics. We explore the concept of investing with simplicity, the importance of asset allocation, and the role of passive investing in today's market. Rick shares his insights on the stages investors go through to reach the point where simplicity is best, and how advisors can help clients gain buy-in for successful long-term investing. We also discuss Rick's thoughts on factor investing, ESG, and the key components of a successful retirement plan. Throughout the conversation, Rick emphasizes the importance of discipline, sticking to a strategy, and focusing on what you can control as an investor.

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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Simeon Hyman, Global Investment Strategist at ProShares, for a wide-ranging discussion on the current state of the economy, inflation, the Fed, market valuations, and market leadership. Simeon shares his thoughts on the possibility of a soft landing, the impact of AI on productivity and the economy, and the surprising beneficiaries of AI disruption. We also dive into some of the strategies offered by ProShares, including their dividend growth and covered call ETFs.

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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Anupam Ghose, co-founder of System2 Advisors and sub-advisor to the Simplify Tara India Opportunities ETF. We discuss the Indian economy, recent political developments, and the country's attractive demographics and growth potential. Anupam shares his approach to stock picking for his concentrated portfolio of Indian companies, including how he assesses management quality, defines a competitive moat, and manages risk in the portfolio. This conversation uncovers some of the unique considerations investors should keep in mind when investing in emerging markets like India.

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In this episode of Excess Returns, we speak with Greg Reid, President of Real Assets at Westwood Group Holdings and lead portfolio manager for their $2 billion energy investment team. We cover the outlook for energy and the major areas of the energy market. We discuss the future of clean energy and why traditional fuels may play a bigger role in it than renewables. We also dig deep into energy infrastructure investing and MLPs and Greg's process for selecting investments in the space and their new ETF that pairs energy investing with covered call writing to boost income.

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In this episode of Excess Returns, we talk Moat investing with Yuri Khodjamirian, CIO of Tema ETFs. We discuss his unique approach to identifying companies with durable competitive advantages and how it differs from traditional Moat investing. We also look at the various types of moats, such as economies of scale, strong network effects, non-replicable physical assets, regulation, and high switching costs, and how these advantages apply to different industries. Yuri also shared insights on Tema's investment process, which blends quantitative and qualitative analysis to construct portfolios of these high-quality companies.

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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Adam Mead, founder of Mead Capital Management and author of the Complete Financial History of Berkshire Hathaway. We discuss the recent Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting, notably missing the presence of the late Charlie Munger. Adam shares insights on Munger's contributions to Berkshire, the company's energy business, and its positioning for the future under the leadership of Warren Buffett's successors. We also explore Berkshire's substantial cash position and the potential for the company to pay a dividend in the coming years. Join us for an in-depth discussion on all things Buffett, Munger, and Berkshire Hathaway with one of the foremost experts on the topic.

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On April 30th, 2024, Excess Returns and SpotGamma brought together 24 of the smartest minds in the investing world for an all-day interview event to raise money for Susan G. Komen. In this episode we are providing two of our favorite interviews of the day with Corey Hoffstein and Ben Hunt. You can watch the full day of interviews or make a donation by heading over to the Excess Returns channel on YouTube and clicking the live link.SEE LATEST EPISODES⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://excessreturnspod.com

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On April 30th, 2024, Excess Returns and SpotGamma brought together 24 of the smartest minds in the investing world for an all-day interview event to raise money for Susan G. Komen. In this episode we are providing two of our favorite interviews of the day with Mike Green and Mike Taylor. You can watch the full day of interviews or make a donation by heading over to the Excess Returns channel on YouTube and clicking the live link.SEE LATEST EPISODES⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://excessreturnspod.com

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On April 30th, 2024, Excess Returns and SpotGamma brought together 24 of the smartest minds in the investing world for an all-day interview event to raise money for Susan G. Komen. In this episode we are providing two of our favorite interviews of the day with Cem Karsan and Andy Constan. You can watch the full day of interviews or make a donation by heading over to the Excess Returns channel on YouTube and clicking the live link.

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In this episode of Show Us Your Portfolio, Jared Dillian, author of the investment newsletter The Daily Dirt Nap and the book "No Worries: How to Live a Stress-Free Financial Life," discusses his personal investing philosophy and portfolio. Dillian advocates for a diversified approach that includes stocks, bonds, cash, gold, and real estate, which he calls the "Awesome Portfolio." He emphasizes the importance of avoiding catastrophic losses and focusing on big financial decisions like buying a house. Dillian also shares his views on debt, leaving money to children, and the role of an emergency fund in managing financial stress.

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In this episode of Excess Returns, we speak with Jeff Muhlenkamp, portfolio manager at Muhlenkamp and Company. We discuss Jeff's views on inflation, the likelihood of a recession, and the possibility of another financial crisis. We also take a in depth look at his investment process, which focuses on finding good companies with strong growth, profitability, and financial strength. He also discussed the importance of understanding management incentives and how he incorporates macroeconomic factors into his investment decisions.

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In this episode we are joined by Andy Constan, founder of Damped Spring Advisors. We discuss his outlook on the current economic landscape, why he left "higher for longer" island, inflation, the Fed's actions, the bond market, and the influence of Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and a lot more. He also shares his views on defining alpha and beta in investing, and how he constructs portfolios to generate long-term returns. Finally, Andy expresses his biggest concerns and reasons for optimism looking out over the next 12-18 months.

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David Einhorn recently said that he thinks fundamental investing is broken. If he is right, there would certainly be significant long-term implications for value investing. We explored Einhorn's case in several of our episodes and so we thought it was time we explored the other side of the argument and looked at the long-term case for value. And we couldn't think of anyone better to do that with than our good friend Tobias Carlisle. In this episode, we talk to Toby about the struggles of value and why he thinks they present a significant opportunity to long-term investors. We also discuss inflation, AI, what Berkshire will look like after Buffett and a lot more.

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In this episode, Research Affiliates founder Rob Arnott returns for his third appearance on Excess Returns. We cover a wide range of topics, including inflation, the struggles of value investing, expected future returns, avoiding value traps, AI and a lot more. Stay tuned until the end when we ask Rob what he is most worried and optimistic about when he looks to the future.

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AI stocks have seen a big run recently. This has led many fundamental-based investors to suggest that things have gotten ahead of themselves. Some have even suggested AI is already in a bubble. But what if we are still in the early innings? What if a bubble is just getting started that could eventually exceed the dotcom bubble? Those are the questions we tackle this week with Deepwater's Doug Clinton. Doug wrote a thought-provoking tweet in which he suggested that studying past tech booms suggests that this one might only be getting started. We dig into that idea with Doug. We also discuss the unique AI driven stock picking strategies he has been running, what AI might mean for the future of investing and a lot more.

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There have been many significant events in the economy and stock market over the past several years. We have had inflation. We have had bank failures. We have had a pandemic. We have even had a potential bubble developing in the AI space. Despite their differences, there is one thing that all of these events have in common - all of them have happened before. And studying that history can allow us to better understand them and what they mean for the market and the economy. This week we are joined by the perfect person to help us do that. We speak with Mark Higgins, author of "Investing in U.S. Financial History: Understanding the Past to Forecast the Future." We discuss what all of us can learn from financial history and how we can apply that knowledge to become better investors.

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In this episode, we are joined by Mike Taylor, manager of the Simplify Health Care ETF (PINK). Mike is one of the best healthcare investors out there and has managed portfolios for Oppenheimer and major hedge funds like Citadel and Millennium. PINK is the only ETF in existence that donates all its profits to charity with its proceeds benefitting the Susan G. Komen foundation. We talk to Mike about the exciting developments going on in the healthcare space and how he thinks about constructing a portfolio to profit from them. We also discuss his work as a scientist, the lessons from his hedge fund career and his views on the current macro environment.
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In this episode of Show Us Your Portfolio, we speak with Unlimited Funds founder Bob Elliott. We discuss the unique multi strategy approach he uses to manage his personal portfolio. We cover the weaknesses of the 60-40 portfolio, the 4 buckets Bob uses as the building blocks for his investment strategy, the benefits of simplicity, how Bob views home ownership, leaving money to children, gardening and a lot more.

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David Einhorn said in a recent podcast interview that he feels that the market is broken. He has made significant changes to his investment approach as a result. Much of the basis for his assertion is based on the work of Simplify's Mike Green, who has been warning investors about the dangers of passive investing for many years. In this episode, we are fortunate to have Mike back for his third appearance on the podcast. We discuss the impact that the rise of passive investing has had on the market, how that impacts the success of fundamental investing strategies and the risks it poses to the market as a whole. We also get Mike's take on inflation, the economy, Fed policy and a lot more.

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With inflation off its highs, but still elevated relative to the Fed's target, there are differing opinions on where we go from here. In this episode, Discipline Funds founder Cullen Roche joins us to help work through it. We discuss the challenge of measuring inflation, the relationship between inflation and the labor market, the potential future path of inflation and what to expect from the Fed going forward.

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In this episode, our most popular guest returns for his third appearance on Excess Returns. We talk with Kai Volatility founder Cem Karsan about a wide range of topics, including the future outlook for inflation, what the Fed is likely to do going forward, structured products, ODTE options, the importance of thinking in probabilities and a lot more. We also get some crumbs and get Cem's take on option dealer flows and the potential coming February window of weakness.

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Those of us that invest using factors have been taught that there needs to be a reason why they work. We have been taught that for their excess returns to persist in the future, there should be a behavioral or risk-based explanation as to why they exist in the first place. If that assumption is wrong, it would call into question the validity of much of the work that has been done in asset pricing research and would also have significant implications for real world investment strategies build using the research. Our guest this week recently published a paper that calls those core ideas of asset pricing theory into question. We speak with Andrew Chen, Principal Economist at the Federal Reserve's Capital Markets Section and Alejandro Lopez-Lira, Assistant Professor of Finance at the University of Florida about their new paper "Does Peer Reviewed Theory Predict the Cross Section of Stock Returns." The paper compared anomalies with behavioral and risk-based explanations to others that were purely data mined. They found no difference in out of sample returns among the 3 groups. In the interview, we take a deep dive into their findings and what they mean for both the world of academic research and real-world investment strategies.

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In our latest episode of Show Us Your Portfolio, we are joined by Fairlead Strategies founder Katie Stockton. We discuss how Katie thinks about managing her personal portfolio and the investing process. We cover Katie's approach to asset allocation, how she incorporates technical analysis into her strategy, international diversification, the benefits of a financial advisor, her views on leaving money to kids and a lot more.

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In this episode, we speak with DBi founder Andrew Beer about his approach to managing his personal portfolio. We discuss how Andrew looks at his portfolio in the context of his life goals, his views on stocks and bonds, how he incorporates managed futures into his portfolio, his views on homeownership and charitable giving and a lot more.

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In this episode, we are privileged to be joined by Chris Davis, Chairman and Portfolio Manager of Davis Advisors. Chris has built an outstanding long-term record as a value investor and also serves on the board of both Berkshire Hathaway and the Coca-Cola Company. We discuss his process for analyzing companies and his owner earnings-based approach that led him to companies like Amazon when many value investors avoided them. We also discuss his biggest lessons from his father and grandfather, both of whom were very successful investors as well, how Charlie Munger changed his life and his thoughts on concentration and position sizing.

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Generative AI is probably the most rapidly developing technology we have ever seen. In this episode, we dig deep into it and its potential impact on both our lives and the investing world with ReSolve Asset Management CIO Adam Butler. Adam is one of the smartest people we know and has been dedicating a large amount of his free time to utilizing the technology, so we couldn't think of a better person to help us better understand it. We discuss how it works, what it means for both people who build investing strategies and those that utilize them and how it might change the world.

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We have now conducted over 100 interviews on Excess Returns. At the end of all of them, we have asked the same closing question:Based on your experience in markets and your research, if you could teach one lesson to the average investor, what would it be?In this episode, we bring all of their episodes together into one episode and share the answers from all our guests, including Guy Spier, Rob Arnott, Michael Mauboussin, Steve Romick, Joel Tillinghast, Cem Karsan, Bob Elliott, Jerry Parker, Andy Constan and many more.

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This episode is the first part II our Show Us Your Portfolio series. When we originally spoke to Larry Swedroe, we were very intrigued by his use of illiquid alternatives within his portfolio. But we didn’t have time in the original interview to dig into the details of his strategy and the individual components of it. In this interview, we correct that. We discuss Larry’s overall view of alternatives, the unique sources of risk he uses within his portfolio and how he combines them together to build an optimal portfolio.

SEE LATEST EPISODES⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

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In this episode, we are joined by Wes Gray, founder of Alpha Architect and ETF Architect. We cover his biggest lessons from growing the businesses from a startup to over $5 billion in assets. We also discuss the rapid growth of ETFs and ETF Architect's mission to help firms launch them. And we get Wes' take on a variety of issues related to factor investing including the struggles of value in the past decade, how to tell when a factor no longer works, the evolution of his strategies over time and the pros and cons of sector neutral value investing.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

SEE LATEST EPISODES⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

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In this episode, we talk factor investing with Robeco's Matthias Hanauer. Matthias has written some excellent research papers on a variety of factor investing topics and we dig into the details behind two of our favorites: "Honey I Shrunk the Factor Zoo", and "Resurrecting the Value Premium." We also discuss the state of value investing in general and look at some interesting charts Matthias put together that put the current situation in value in context.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

SEE LATEST EPISODES⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

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In this episode, we discuss the incredible life and investing career of Charlie Munger with George Washington Professor Lawrence Cunningham. Lawrence in one of the world's leading experts on Berkshire Hathaway and Buffett and Munger and w couldn't think of anyone better to help us pay tribute to Munger. We discuss Munger's life, his investing career, the core principles that governed him, his legacy and a lot more.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

SEE LATEST EPISODES⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

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In this episode, we speak with Joel Tillinghast, who will retire as the manager of the Fidelity Low-Priced Stock Fund at the end of this year. Joel managed the fund for over 30 years and built an impressive track record, substantially outperforming the S&P 500 over his tenure. We talk to Joel about the biggest lessons from his career, his approach to finding undervalued stocks, what he learned from Peter Lynch, the most important advice he will give his successors and a lot more.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

SEE LATEST EPISODES⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

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Most investors reference the returns of popular indexes frequently. But most also do not understand the details of how those indexes are constructed. In this episode, we take a deep dive into index construction with Bloomberg's Athanasios Psarofagis. We start with basic indexes like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ and move to more complex ones like the Russell and S&P value and growth indexes. But in all cases, we look at the behind the scenes details of how the index is built and how that impacts the returns they generate for investors.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

SEE LATEST EPISODES⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

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In this episode we bring back one of our most popular guests. We speak with O'Shaughnessy Ventures founder Jim O'Shaughnessy about his transition from a factor investor to a venture capitalist and what he has learned along the way. We cover the current state of factor investing, Jim's biggest lessons from his career, his approach to venture capital, the attributes of successful founders and a lot more.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

SEE LATEST EPISODES⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

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In this episode, we speak with 3Fourteen Research founders Warren Pies and Fernando Vidal. We discuss 3Fourteen’s systematic macro process and how they are using it to analyze the current challenging environment. We also cover a wide range of macro topics, including the importance of the duration of treasury issuance, Fed policy, the changing correlation dynamics of stocks and bonds, their unique drawdown prediction model and their outlook for housing.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

SEE LATEST EPISODES⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

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In this episode, we take an in depth look at the credit market with Asterozoa Capital CIO Joe Hegener. We cover the basics of the credit market, the current state of the market, the potential upcoming refinancing wall and the most important fundamental criteria Joe looks at when evaluating companies.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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When fund managers outperform, they tend to attribute it to their skill. When they underperform, they tend to blame external factors. While that information has been known for some time, it wasn't something that researchers were able to quantify. But the advent of ChatGPT and large language models has changed that. In this episode, we are joined by Meng Wang, a PhD student at Georgia State University. He used this new technology to analyze and quantify self-attribution bias among fund managers and recently published a paper "Heads I Win, Tails It’s Chance: Mutual Fund Performance Self-Attribution?" where he highlighted his findings. We discuss his research process, what he learned and the most important conclusions for investors.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

SEE LATEST EPISODES⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

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In this episode, we talk all weather investing with Standpoint's Eric Crittenden. We discuss the case for an all weather strategy relative to a stock and bond portfolio, the challenges of looking different than the market, portfolio construction, international diversification, leverage, the characteristics of a good back test and a lot more. We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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We have launched a new podcast called the OPEX Effect with Spotgamma's Brent Kochuba. The monthly podcast will look at the impact of options on the stock market and how long-term investors can better understand it. We have included the first episode in the Excess Returns feed, but if you would like to receive future episodes, please subscribe using the links below.

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In this episode we take a behind the scenes look at one of our favorite podcasts, Flirting with Models, with its host Corey Hoffstein. We discuss the podcast's origin story, how Corey thinks about selecting guests, what he has learned about interviewing, how he thinks about the podcast as part of his overall business strategy and a lot more. We also talk about Corey's days as a pirate hosting the Pirates of Finance podcast and what he learned from it.

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In this episode we speak with Chesapeake Capital founder Jerry Parker about how he manages his personal portfolio. We discuss Jerry's trend following based approach and how he uses it to construct a portfolio that balances risk and return. We also discuss the problems with the 60-40 portfolio, the details of building a trend following strategy, charitable giving, leaving money to children and a lot more.

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In this episode, we speak with FPA Crescent Manager Steve Romick. Steve has built an exceptional long-term record using an approach that combines value investing with protection of capital and drawdown management. We discuss the biggest lessons he has learned in his decades of managing money, get his take on the current state of value investing and talk about many of the unique aspects of managing a go anywhere fund.

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It has been a painful last decade for value investors. In this episode, our good friend Tobias Carlisle returns to commiserate about the struggles of value and also to talk about the future opportunity it may create. We discuss value spreads, the importance of enduring pain, the comparison with 2000 and a lot more. We also get an update on Toby's new book.

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In this episode, we take a deep div into quantitative investing with Michael Robbins, author of the new book "Quantitative Asset Management: Factor Investing and Machine Learning for Institutional Investing." We discuss data science and machine learning, factor investing, risk management, the qualities of a good back test and a lot more.

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In this episode, we talk trend following and conservative investing with Sierra Mutual Funds CIO James St. Aubin. We talk about their unique banded moving average approach to trend following and how they utilize it to manage risk in client portfolios. We also discuss the importance of educating investors, what makes a good investment manager, quantitative vs discretionary management and a lot more.

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In this episode of Show Us Your Portfolio, we speak with Damped Spring Advisors founder Andy Constan. Andy has spent his career working at some of the most successful firms in the asset management industry, including Bridgewater and Brevan Howard and he explains how the lessons he has learned throughout his career led to how he constructs his portfolio today. We discuss how he combines a risk parity approach with alpha seeking strategies to maximize long-term returns and minimize risk. We also cover Andy's current view on stocks and bonds, factor investing, international diversification and a lot more.

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In this episode, our good friend Cullen Roche returns to the podcast for his 5th appearance. But this time, instead of talking about the macroeconomy as we have in his previous appearances, we discuss how he manages his personal portfolio. We talk about Cullen's unique approach of matching the duration of the asset classes he invests in with his personal goals. We also discuss whether his macro views influence his portfolio, how he looks at international diversification, his views on leaving money to children and a lot more.

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In this episode, we speak with Comgest portfolio manager Alistair Wittet We discuss his approach for building a focused portfolio of high-quality European growth companies and the most important criteria he looks at. We also dig into the characteristics that define great long-term brands, the current economic situation in Europe, how the European growth universe differs from the US one and a lot more.

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International stocks, and particularly emerging market stocks, have struggled relative to US stocks for a long time. That has led some to suggest that international diversification no longer makes sense for investors. But valuations in the space and lessons from history would suggest otherwise.

In this episode we discuss the issue with AQR's Dan Villalon, who has authored two research papers that use a data driven approach to look at it. We discuss the current valuations in both international and emerging market stocks and the opportunity they may present for long-term investors. We also discuss the foundational arguments for international diversification and whether they hold up today.

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In this episode, we speak with Essentia Analytics founder Clare Flynn Levy. Essentia has developed software to evaluate investment managers and help them improve as investors. We discuss what Clare has learned through that process and the lessons all of us can take from it.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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In this episode Jack and Matt Zeigler look at factor investing from both the perspective of someone who builds quantitative strategies and someone who utilizes them. They discuss what factors are, why they work, the different ways to combine them into multi-factor portfolios, the importance of matching an investment strategy with the end user's goals and risk tolerance, the important of human capital in portfolio construction and a lot more.

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In this episode, we speak with Optimal Momentum founder and author of "Dual Momentum Investing: An Innovative Strategy for Higher Returns with Lower Risk" Gary Antonacci about the process he uses to construct his personal portfolio. We talk with Gary about the goals he is trying to achieve with his portfolio and the unique momentum-based approach he utilizes to meet them. We also discuss his views on retirement, the first investment he ever made and the most important lesson he would teach the average investor.

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Narratives are everywhere in the investing world. They influence what we think as investors. They also influence the decisions we make. Behind the scenes, there is a science to how narratives work. They follow a predictable life cycle and technology can be utilized to measure them and analyze their impact on stock returns.

In this episode, we discuss narrative as an investing factor with Epsilon Theory founder Ben Hunt. We talk about the life cycle of narratives, how they are measured, the types of investments they work best on and a lot more.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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In this episode we speak with ReSolve Asset Management CIO Adam Butler about how he manages his personal portfolio. We discuss how Adam builds a portfolio of uncorrelated return streams to optimize both return and risk. We also cover how to view historical data, how investors focus on tracking error changes portfolio theory, leverage, leaving money to children and a lot more.

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In this episode, we talk growth investing with Wedgewood Partners Chief Investment Officer David Rolfe. We discuss the characteristics of great growth companies and the details of their process to identify them. We cover the importance of dominant products, the characteristics of strong management teams, the role of valuation in growth investing and a lot more.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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In this episode, we take a deep dive into emerging market debt with VanEck's Eric Fine. We discuss Eric's unique background that led him to the emerging market space and how that has influenced his approach to it. We then step through emerging market debt step by step and cover the size and composition of the market, the factors that drive its return, the benefits of emerging market debt for a US investor and how Eric thinks about portfolio construction.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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In this episode, we speak with Old West's Joseph Boskovich about their process for uncovering companies that focus on adding value for their shareholders. We discuss thy key criteria they use to find these types of companies, the importance of insider ownership, how they look at valuing companies and how they look at capital allocation. We also cover inflation, Joe's lesson's from working in the produce business and a lot more.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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In this episode, we speak with Sparkline Capital founder Kai Wu about his excellent recent paper "Intangible Value: A Sixth Factor". We discuss his research on the importance of intangible assets, how to measure them and turn them into a value factor, the benefits of intangible value to a multi-factor portfolio, and how he used it to construct a 6-factor model.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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In our latest episode of Show Us Your Portfolio, we speak with Buckingham Strategic Wealth's Larry Swedroe. Larry has dedicated his career to educating investors and has written more books and articles than we can list in that pursuit.

We talk with Larry about how he takes his evidence-based approach to investing and translates it into managing his personal portfolio. We cover his approach to incorporating uncorrelated return streams into his overall approach, his unique use of assets outside of those traditionally used by investors, how he approaches equities and bonds, how his approach has changed over time and a lot more.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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In this episode, we combine two of the topics we often cover on the podcast. We talk both retirement planning and factor investing with Dimensional Fund Advisors Senior Researcher Mathieu Pellerin. Mathieu has conducted extensive research in both areas and we discuss two of his excellent papers: "Investing for Retirement Income: A Comparison of Asset Allocations and Spending Strategies" and "How Targeting the Size, Value, and Profitability Premiums Can Improve Retirement Outcomes".

We discuss the difference in success rates between wealth focused and income focused retirement strategies, the balance between optimizing return and failure risk in retirement planning and how factors can help boost the chances of retirement success.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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There has been a lot going on in the options world that is impacting the stock market. The use of 0DTE (0 days to expiration) options has risen dramatically in recent months, options expirations have continued to be significant market moving events and an end of month trade by a JP Morgan fund many investors haven't heard of has also been a significant market driver. We also have a major options expiration coming up this week that might have significant implications for the market.

With everything going on in the options world, we thought it would be a great time to bring back our friend and options expert Brent Kochuba. Brent is the founder of SpotGamma and has been our go to resource to understand how what is going on in options is impacting the overall market. We cover all the issues above and get Brent's take on what they might mean for investors. He also shares some great charts with us to help us better put everything into context.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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In this episode, we speak with Unlimited Funds founder Bob Elliott. We discuss the general landscape of the hedge fund industry including the strategies hedge funds employ, whether they add value from a return perspective and if the top performing hedge funds are able to maintain that status over time. We also discuss the challenges of replicating hedge fund returns and Unlimited's unique approach to doing it via the ETF wrapper. In the second half of the interview, we get Bob's take on the current macroeconomic environment, why inflation might be tougher to tame than many think, what the resolution of the debt ceiling issue might mean for markets and a lot more.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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Finding companies that can sustain persistent growth over long periods of time can lead to exceptional returns. Those of us who have witnessed the returns of the great technology companies of the past decade have seen that firsthand. But identifying those companies in advance can be incredibly difficult.

In this episode, we talk with Deepwater's Gene Munster and Doug Clinton about how they seek to find the great growth companies of the future. We discuss the characteristics of firms that achieve persistent growth and how they seek to find them. We also take a tour of the current major areas of innovation they are looking at including artificial intelligence, robotics, autonomous vehicles, fintech and the metaverse and discuss the opportunities they see in each of them.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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In this episode, we speak with Northern Trust's Peter Mladina. Peter has published extensive research in the areas of both financial planning and factor investing. We discuss his work in both areas and brought in our friend and co-host of our The Education of a Financial Planner podcast Matt Zeigler to help us with the questions on the planning side. We cover goals-based planning, modeling human capital, how to think about alpha in a post CAPM world, the future of the 60-40 portfolio and a lot more.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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Like many investors, we have been thinking a lot about the impact that AI and large language models will have on investing. In this episode, we bring in an expert to help us sort it out. We speak with University of Florida Professor of Finance Alejandro Lopez-Lira, who was worked extensively with this new technology and recently authored the paper "Can ChatGPT Forecast Stock Price Movements? Return Predictability and Large Language Models". We discuss how ChatGPT works, its potential future impact on investing and what his research showed with respect to its ability to predict short-term stock price movements. We also take some time at the end to cover some of his other interesting asset pricing research.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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In this episode, we speak with Vanguard's Head of Active and Alternatives Research Kevin Khang. Kevin offers a unique perspective due to his experience both as a researcher and a practitioner. We discuss a variety of his research papers, including his work on tax loss harvesting, direct indexing, optimization in factor investing, using home equity in retirement and safe withdrawal rates.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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In the first 200+ episodes of our podcast, we have interviewed many investing experts. At the end of all of those episodes, we have asked the same closing question:Based on your experience in markets and your research, if you could teach one lesson to the average investor, what would it be?We created a YouTube only episode to bring all of those insights together in one place.

You can find the episode on our YouTube channel or via the link below.

https://youtu.be/bbjGnp8gvQM

We hope you enjoy it.

In our latest episode of Show Us Your Portfolio, we speak with Harin de Silva, Portfolio Manager at Allspring Global. We talk to Harin about how he manages his personal investments and his strategy for seeking out uncorrelated sources of return and dig into his unique approach to long short factor investing and how he incorporates it into his portfolio. We also discuss his view in international investing, his approach to private investing, the future of the 60-40 portfolio and a lot more.

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In this episode we talk to Simplify Asset Management's Mike Green about how he manages his personal portfolio. We discuss Mike's macro-based approach and how he has implemented it using an ETF strategy. We cover the unique components within his strategy and how Mike thinks about combining them together into a portfolio. We also talk about how working in the investment business impacts how Mike builds his portfolio, the importance of sabbaticals, his upcoming RV trip, how he is coping with his current lack of cooking tools and a lot more.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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In this episode we speak with Mutiny Funds co-founder Jason Buck about how he manages his personal portfolio. Jason couldn't find any publicly available funds that were running the unique all weather approach he wanted to use to manage his money, so he built it himself. We discuss the principles behind the cockroach portfolio he utilizes in his persona portfolio and take a detailed look at the individual components.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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In this episode we talk technical analysis with Fairlead Strategies founder Katie Stockton. As fundamental investors, this one was a great learning experience for us as we covered a wide range of ways in which technical analysis can help all of us in our investment strategies. We discuss the major tools available to technical analysts and how Katie thinks about deploying them, how Katie uses technical analysis to build a sector rotation portfolio that also manages risk and how fundamental investors can use technical analysis to improve their investment strategies.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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In this episode, we talk high yield debt investing with Rajay Bagaria, CIO of Wasserstein Debt Opportunities and author of "High Yield Debt: An Insider’s Guide to the Marketplace." We look at the high yield debt market from the ground up and cover the major players, the types of high yield debt and the terms and concepts investors need to understand when looking at the space. We look at the fundamentals of high yield debt investing and the key concepts to understand, who the buyers and sellers are in the high yield market, the return profile of high yield debt and how it compares to other areas of the market and much more.

We hope you enjoy the discussion. SEE LATEST EPISODES

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In this episode we speak with Cem Karsan, the most popular guest from our first 200 episodes. But this time, we changed things up and asked him to talk about how he manages his personal portfolio. Many investors are used to building their portfolios using long-term buy and hold allocations to stocks and bonds, but Cem turns that on its head and takes a very different approach. We talk about the principles that guide his investment strategy, how he thinks about portfolio construction, his views on inflation and a lot more. For followers of Cem, we also ask for some breadcrumbs on dealer positioning at the end too. We hope you enjoy the discussion. SEE LATEST EPISODES

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In this episode, we speak with Guy Spier. Guy has built a very successful long-term track record as a value investor, but the lessons we can learn from him go far beyond investing and apply to so many aspects of life. We discuss Guy’s unique approach to investing, what he has learned from Buffett, the importance of learning in public and a lot more.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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In this episode, we talk factor investing with AJO Vista Head of Investments Chris Covington. We discuss their unique approach to factor investing and how they apply it to less crowded markets. We take a detailed look at their strategy and discuss value, quality, momentum and their approach to measuring stability. We also cover a wide range of other topics including multi-factor investing, the impact of transaction costs, the dangers of overoptimization and a lot more. We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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Direct Indexing has experienced rapid growth in recent years. Falling transaction costs and improving technology has allowed more and more investors to deploy an index-based strategy by owning the underlying securities rather than using an ETF or Mutual Fund. This has opened up opportunities to potentially improve after tax returns and to customize index-based portfolios for each investor’s needs.

In this episode, we speak with O’Shaughnessy Asset Management’s Ehren Stanhope. O’Shaughnessy’s custom indexing platform has expanded the potential of direct indexing by layering a series of features on top of it to allow investors to build custom portfolios to fir their individual needs.

The three big things you will learn in this episode are:

-What Direct Indexing is and how it works in the real world

-The details of how direct indexing strategies are managed to produce tax alpha

-The other customization factors available to investors through custom indexing strategies and the pros and cons of them

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With inflation returning after being dormant for decades, many investors have had a renewed interest in adding inflation fighting assets to their portfolios. But figuring out how to do that can be challenging. In this episode, we speak to VanEck's Head of Quantitative Solutions Dave Schassler to get some insights about how to attack the problem. We discuss the assets that work best to hedge against inflation and how to put them together into a portfolio. We also talk about the future outlook for inflation, Fed policy and a lot more.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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With the failure of Silicon Valley Bank last week, we wanted to do a special episode to better understand what happened, and what all of us can learn from it. And we couldn’t think of anyone better to talk to than Cullen Roche of Discipline Funds, who is an expert on the internal workings of the monetary and banking systems.

The three big things you will learn in this episode are:

How the banking system works and how that helps to provide context for what happened here.
The factors and events that led to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank
What we can learn from what happened and what it means going forward

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You might think that the return profile of the market looks similar during the day and overnight. But research has shown that isn't the case. In this episode, we discuss the "Night Effect" with NightShares founder Bruce Lavine. We discuss what the "Night Effect' is, what causes it, how it stands up to the tests of a strong investing factor and a lot more.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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We are happy to announce the launch of our second podcast, The Education of a Financial Planner. We have been doing more financial planning with clients and have realized how much there is to learn in the area. So we decided to create a podcast to document our learning journey and bring in experienced planner Matt Zeigler to teach us.

In the second episode, we take a detailed look at college planning and saving. This will be the final episode we will put in the Excess Returns feed. If you would like to continue to receive episodes going forward, please click the links below to subscribe on each of the major podcast platforms.

We hope you enjoy the new podcast.

If you have any feedback, please email us at excessreturnspod@gmail.com.

Apple Podcasts

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-education-of-a-financial-planner/id1670513515

Spotify

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https://anchor.fm/education-financial-plan

In our latest Show Us Your Portfolio episode, we speak with Newfound Research founder Corey Hoffstein. We discuss how he constructs his personal portfolio and how he applies concepts like return stacking and capital efficiency in that process. We also cover a wide range of other topics, including the importance of human capital, international diversification, the role of valuations in his investment process and a lot more.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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We are happy to announce the launch of our second podcast, The Education of a Financial Planner. We have been doing more financial planning with clients and have realized how much there is to learn in the area. So we decided to create a podcast to document our learning journey and bring in experienced planner Matt Zeigler to teach us.

In the first episode, we discuss the basics of goals-based planning. Next week, we will dig into planning for college. We will put the first two episodes of the new podcast on the Excess Returns feed, but if you would like to continue to receive episodes after that, please click the links below to subscribe on each of the major podcast platforms.

We hope you enjoy the new podcast.

If you have any feedback, please email us at excessreturnspod@gmail.com.

Apple Podcasts

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-education-of-a-financial-planner/id1670513515

Spotify

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Google Podcasts

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Other Podcast Platforms

https://anchor.fm/education-financial-plan

In this episode we speak with Damped Spring Advisors founder Andy Constan. Andy has built a unique macro framework that incorporates growth, inflation, flows and risk premia. We discuss a wide variety of topics, including the interaction between Fed and Treasury policy, the biggest lessons he learned at Bridgewater, the future of inflation and what his framework says about the current market.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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Many investors take for granted that the earnings and other financial data that companies report provides an accurate representation of their business and its future. But the reality is that is often not the case. In this episode, we talk with Doron Nissim, who is the Ernst & Young Professor of Accounting & Finance Chair at Columbia University and one of the world's leading experts on earnings quality.

We discuss what earnings quality is, how it can be measured and evaluated and what investors can do to identify and adjust for issues with both earnings and other information reported on the financial statements of companies.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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We all often hear about the importance of sentiment in investing. But how to use it can be elusive. This week we are joined by someone who has done the empirical work and developed models that use sentiment to build real world investment strategies.

We speak with Ray Micaletti of Relative Sentiment Technologies. Ray has done extensive research on the use of relative sentiment in investment strategies and has published several research papers on the topic, including "Want Smart Beta? Follow the Smart Money: Market and Factor Timing Using Relative Sentiment". He also runs an ETF using his strategies.

We discuss what relative sentiment is and why it works and look at it through the framework commonly used to evaluate investment factors to see how it holds up. We also cover how sentiment is measured, using sentiment in bonds and gold and a lot more.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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In this episode we talk fund selection with Joe Wiggins, author of the new book "The Intelligent Fund Investor: Practical steps for better results in active and passive funds". We take a deep dive into the process of selecting funds and the many pitfalls' investors face along the way. We discuss the dangers of investing with star managers, what we can and can't learn from historical performance, the key criteria investors should consider when looking for funds and a lot more.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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With the recent release of the Netflix documentary "Madoff: The Monster of Wall Street," many of us have been learning more of the details behind the scandal.

This week, are are joined by Andrew Cohen, who participated in the documentary and was both a trader on the legitimate side of Madoff's business and a victim of the Ponzi scheme. Andrew gives us a inside look at what it was like to work in the Madoff organization and takes us through the timeline of events from when he started there to when the Ponzi scheme was uncovered. We also talk about his biggest personal lessons from the experience and what he thinks other investors can learn from it.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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In this episode, we speak with Smead Capital CEO and Portfolio Manager Cole Smead. Smead Capital has built a strong long-term record using a unique approach to value investing. We take a deep dive into their approach, the key metrics they use and how they think about portfolio construction. We also talk about his favorite investing books, discuss the most important lessons he thinks investors can learn from Warren Buffett and get his take on inflation and how it impacts their process.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

To answer the question mentioned in the podcast, please go to our YouTube Excess Returns channel, like the video and then obtain the question from the description below the video.

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In this episode, we speak with Andy Berkin, Head of Research at Bridgeway and co-author of "Your Complete Guide to Factor Investing: The Way Smart Money Invests Today." We cover a wide range of factor investing topics, including the future of value investing, composites vs. individual metrics, the different approaches to multi-factor investing and factor timing. We also talk about how his background in Physics has helped him in his investing career, how investors should look at inflation and a lot more.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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2022 was a great year for Excess Returns. We were able to interview some of the smartest people we know and more than doubled our audience as a result of the many great insights our guests have provided and the support of our loyal listeners. As has been the case since the beginning of our podcast, we tried to focus on talking to investors who have had long-term track records of success, and we tried to extract the major lessons all of us can learn from them. As we start the new year, we wanted to take a look back at 2022 and highlight some of the most important lessons we have learned from the interviews we conducted during the year.

Here are the biggest lessons we learned from our 5 most popular interviews of 2022.'

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In this episode, we speak with Jeff Muhlenkamp. Jeff is the manager of the Muhlenkamp Fund, which has managed client money for over three decades. We discuss his approach to finding undervalued securities and the portfolio management process he uses to manage the fund. We also cover the fund's unique approach to raising cash based on market conditions, the biggest lessons he learned from his father Ron, who originally founded the firm, and how his military training has helped him in the investing world.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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The ETF industry is dominated by the big players. They control most of the assets and they have some clear advantages over the smaller companies within the industry in terms of their ability to launch and grow products. We know this first hand since we launched our own value ETF in 2014 (not exactly the best timing for a value strategy by the way) and it eventually didn’t work out.

But just because big firms control most of the assets doesn’t mean they offer the most innovative products. Some of the most interesting products we have seen have come from smaller shops who are not afraid to challenge the big players. We have been fortunate to interview many of them in the three years since we launched our podcast and so we thought it would be interesting to put them together into a compilation of smaller firms that are helping to launch new products that give all of us a more robust series of choices within the ETF space.

Here are some of the more interesting ETF companies we have featured on Excess Returns.

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In this episode, we talk Geopolitics with Marko Papic, Chief Strategist at the Clocktower Group.

We look at his framework for analyzing the geopolitical landscape to cut through the noise and identify the most important events and information. We also take a tour of the current world to look at some of the most important areas investors should be paying attention to including the Ukraine War, what is going on in China, and some areas that are flying under the radar, but could be the source of future conflict.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

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In this episode we speak with Buckingham Strategic Wealth's Head of Financial and Economic Research Larry Swedroe. Larry is one of the most prolific producers of quality financial content we know and has committed much of his career to helping to educate investors. We talk to Larry about the current situation in the economy and markets and how long-term investors can make sense of it. We also discuss value investing, ESG, the importance of diversification and a lot more.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

In this episode we are joined by Harley Bassman, Managing Partner at Simplify ETFs. Harley's work on convexity and how to utilize it in portfolios earned him the nickname the Convexity Maven. We discuss convexity and how investors can benefit from it in their investment strategies and also cover a wide range of other topics, including inflation, housing, Fed policy and a lot more.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

In this episode we talk with Ben Carlson, author of the popular A Wealth of Common Sense blog and Director of Institutional Asset Management at Ritholtz Wealth Management.

We discuss Ben's path to creating and building the blog and what he has learned along the way. We also get Ben's help putting the current market and economic situation in historical context and discuss some of the biggest lessons he has learned studying market history.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

When we started Show Us Your Portfolio, we assumed there would be one major requirement for each interview - a portfolio. But it turns out one of the most interesting episodes we have done is with someone who doesn't have one (at least in public markets).

We talk with Epsilon Theory founder Ben Hunt about why he doesn't invest in public markets and instead invests in the things closest and most important to him. We also get his take on public markets and how he would think about constructing a portfolio if he were to build one in today's world.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

In this episode, we talk Trend Following with Chesapeake Capital founder Jerry Parker. We talk about his participation in Richard Dennis' famous turtle trading program and what he learned from it. We also take a deep dive into trend following and look at the many aspects of running trend following strategies in the real world.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

In our first nine episodes of Show Us Your Portfolio, we spoke to some great investors and looked at some really interesting investment approaches. But one thing we noticed about all of those episodes is that they featured investors who were further along in their investing journeys. So we wanted to talk to someone who is earlier in the process and utilizes a thoughtful approach to growing their portfolio over the long-term.

In this episode, we talk with Alpha Architect Head of Capital Markets Ryan Kirlin about how he thinks about building his personal portfolio. We discuss how he utilizes factors and trend following in his investment strategy, how he chooses the investment vehicle for his portfolio, his thoughts on bonds and crypto and a lot more.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

In this episode we speak with Research Affiliates founder Rob Arnott about how he manages his personal portfolio. We talk about how Rob thinks about the role of both bonds and equities is his portfolio and how he adjusts his exposure to them over time. We also discuss his view on alternative asset classes, how he thinks about giving money to his children, how he views charitable giving and a lot more.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Hedge funds are typically considered a place where high net worth investors can invest in sophisticated investment strategies that the average investor doesn't have access to. But that has changed in recent years. More and more strategies that have typically been deployed via hedge funds can now be accessed via liquid, lower fee vehicles like mutual funds and ETFs.

In this episode, we speak with Dynamic Beta Investments founder Andrew Beer, who has been a leader in this evolution. We discuss the hedge fund industry and how it has changed over time and look at how hedge fund strategies can be replicated via liquid vehicles like ETFs. We also cover a wide range of other topics including managed futures, the future of the value factor and the evolution of Warren Buffett over time.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

In this edition of Show Us Your Portfolio, we speak with Dr. Daniel Crosby. Daniel is an expert an investor behavior and the Chief Behavioral Officer at Orion. We speak with Daniel about how he thinks about constructing his personal portfolio and the steps he takes to limit the negative effects of behavior in it. We also discuss his views on both equities and bonds and how he incorporates them into his strategy, how he thinks about 529 plans and college savings, his views on leaving money to his children, some of his biggest investing mistakes and a lot more.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

In this episode we talk Low Volatility investing with Pim van Vliet, who is the Head of Conservative Equities and Quantitative Equities at Robeco. Pim's book "High Returns From Low Risk: A Remarkable Stock Market Paradox" serves as the inspiration for one of the quantitative models we runon Validea. We discuss all things low volatility, including how to define it, why it works and the benefits of blending it with other factors. We also cover the recent struggles of value investing, how factors perform in different economic environments, the use of short-term signals and how factors perform when the short side of their performance is removed.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

In this episode of Show Us Your Portfolio, we speak with SpotGamma founder Brent Kochuba. We had Brent on the podcast previously in episode 151 where we discussed the impact of the options market and option dealer flows on stocks. In this episode, we talk about how Brent uses that expertise to construct his personal portfolio. We discuss his asset allocation, the volatility trigger he uses to manage equity market risk and some interesting things he invests in on the fixed income side. We also discuss charitable giving, obstacle course racing, Brent's biggest investment mistake and a lot more.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

The 60-40 portfolio forms the core of many investors' long-term portfolio allocations. And it has worked exceptionally well over the past 40 years. But the combination of high equity valuations, below average bond yields, and potential higher inflation has led many investors to question whether its future will look as good as its past.

In this episode, we bring together some of the smartest investors we have had on the podcast to look at the future of the 60-40 portfolio and some potential alternative approaches to it.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

In our latest episode of Show Us Your Portfolio we speak with 42 Macro founder Darius Dale. We discuss his systematic macro process and how he applies it to managing his personal portfolio. We also get his take on the future of the 60-40 portfolio, managing money in an inflationary environment, the use of valuation in investing and a lot more.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

We have looked at a variety of different investing strategies so far in our Show Us Your Portfolio series. We have talked to investors who use factor-based approaches. We have talked to investors who use trend following and managed futures. We have talked to investors who use passive approaches. But regardless of the approach any of us use in our personal portfolios, we can often lose sight of what we are actually trying to achieve. We can lose sight of the importance of aligning our portfolio with our purpose.

In this episode of Show Us Your Portfolio, we speak with our good friend Ryan Krueger of Freedom Day Solutions. We discuss how he aligns his personal portfolio with the most important things he is trying to achieve in his life. We work through his unique system of classifying his investments and how he uses that to connect his investments with his purpose in life.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

There has been a lot of debate about Federal Reserve policy in the wake of the pandemic. But many of those involved in that debate want to promote a specific position and interpret the facts in a way to accomplish that goal. In this episode, we wanted to take a step back cover the facts about the Federal Reserve and how it operates. And we couldn't think of a better person to do that with than our friend Cullen Roche. We discuss the history of the Fed, what its mandates are, the tools it can use to achieve its goals, and how all of that applies to the situation we find ourselves in today.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

This week we are joined by our good friend and first three time guest on the podcast Tobias Carlisle. We talk about a wide range of value investing topics, including the current state of value investing and how value looks relative to growth. We also compare the current period for value to the early 2000s period and look at what we can learn from that period. Finally, we take a deep dive into the many issues value investors face when constructing a value strategy in the real world, including using single metrics vs. composites, portfolio sizing, industry concentration, how to handle intangible assets and a lot more.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Our first few episodes of Show Us Your Portfolio looked at some thoughtful, evidence-based approaches to portfolio construction. But we also noticed after listening to them that many of the concepts we discussed might be too sophisticated for the average investor. Given that simplicity often works best in investing, we wanted to talk to someone about the benefits of using a less complex approach. And we couldn't think of anyone better to talk to about that than Rick Ferri. Rick is the President of the John C. Bogle Center for Financial Literacy, the host of the Bogleheads on Investing Podcast and a long-time advocate for low fee investing.

We discuss how Rick thinks about building his personal portfolio and his Core 4 approach to investing. We also discuss why all of us tend to overcomplicate our portfolios and what we can do to correct that.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

In our latest episode of Show Us Your Portfolio we speak to Savant Wealth CIO Phil Huber. We discuss Phil's approach to building his personal portfolio and the core principles that guide it. We also discuss Phil's view on the expected returns of stocks and bonds, his approach to selecting alternative investments and a lot more,

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Research has shown that value investing needs to change. Our economy has transitioned from one dominated by tangible assets like buildings and equipment to one dominated by intangible assets such as brands and intellectual property. Although many researchers have looked at the issue of how to value intangible assets, far fewer are looking at how to translate that into an actual investment strategy.

Our guest this week has done exactly that.

We speak to Sparkline Capital founder Kai Wu about how he looks at intangible assets and the machine learning based methods he uses to value them. We also get into the nuts and bolts of constructing an intangible focused value strategy and discuss issues such as selecting an investment universe, determining the number of stocks to hold, position sizing, industry concentration and a lot more.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Test

In this episode we speak with Gautam Baid, author of The Joys Of Compounding: The Passionate Pursuit Of Lifelong Learning. We talk about the power of compounding and the criteria he uses to identify long-term compounders. We also cover a wide range of other topics, including why value investing works over the long-term, what to make of the recent struggles of value and the long-term potential of the Indian market.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

GAUTAM'S BOOK

https://www.amazon.com/Joys-Compounding-Passionate-Lifelong-Learning/dp/9390351014/

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

After years of very strong performance, technology and growth stocks have had a much more difficult time in the last 18 months. Many of the highest multiple names are now 70%-90% off their highs, and even the FAANG stocks have joined in this year and seen major declines. In this episode, we bring in two experts to help us analyze the situation.

We speak with Upholdings' Robert Cantwell and Lars Cianciolo about how we got here with technology stocks, where we are today, and what the opportunity for the future looks like. We compare the current situation to the 2000 tech bubble, talk about the most important metrics to look at when valuing tech companies and discuss the application of quant strategies to tech and growth investing.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

In this episode we are joined by Kai Volatility founder Cem Karsan. Cem has led the way in educating investors about the importance of option dealer flows and the impact of hedging on the market. We discuss this issue in depth and look at how dealer positioning can have a much greater impact on markets than many believe We also look at what that impact means for long-term investors.

In the second half of the conversation, we discuss Cem's unique macro framework and the major secular changes the economy and markets are seeing in the wake of the pandemic. He also provides one of the most insightful answers we have had to our standard closing question so make sure to stay tuned until the end.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Investors have enjoyed above average returns for decades now. But long-term evidence suggests that those lofty returns won't last forever. In this episode we take a deep dive into the topic of expected returns with AQR's Antti Ilmanen. Antti is the author of Expected Returns: An Investor's Guide to Harvesting Market Rewards, which many consider to be the seminal work on the topic and has recently released a new book Investing Amid Low Expected Returns: Making the Most When Markets Offer the Least.

We discuss the concept of expected returns and dig into the details of how they are calculated. We then use that framework to understand why future expected returns are likely lower than what investors have become accustomed to in recent decades. We also cover some additional sources of return that might offer investors an opportunity to boost returns in a low expected return world.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ANTTI'S NEW BOOK

https://www.amazon.com/Investing-Amid-Low-Expected-Returns/dp/1119860199

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

None

It would be an understatement to say there has been a lot going on in the market this year. Rising inflation has changed the game for economic policy makers and caused significant turmoil in the markets, especially in the growth space. In this episode, we try to put everything that is going on in the markets in context. We discuss the economic and Federal Reserve policies that got us to where we are today, what is happening right now, and the factors that will determine where we go from here. We also look at the valuation of the market and the spreads between value and growth and how they have changed in this bear market.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Value investing has been under fire in the past decade. Although value has performed much better since the COVID market bottom, it went through an extended period prior to that where it struggled badly. And that led some to declare that value is dead. In this episode we put all of this in context with Jim Cullen, author of "The Case for Long-Term Value Investing: A guide to the data and strategies that drive stock market success".

We discuss why value works over the long-term, whether the strategy's best days are behind it and the details of building value portfolios. We also talk about the benefits of discretionary and systematic approaches to value.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

JIM'S BOOK

https://www.amazon.com/Case-Long-Term-Value-Investing-strategies/dp/0857199471

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Momentum is one of the more challenging factors for investors. Although the long-term evidence that supports it is very strong, many investors have a difficult time understanding why something should be bought just because its price has gone up.

We have been fortunate to have some of the most knowledgeable experts on momentum we know on our podcast and we wanted to bring all their expertise together to help all of us better understand momentum. In this episode we combine the insights of Sheridan Titman, Jack Vogel, Harin de Silva, Jason Hsu, Gary Antonacci and Wes Gray and look at why momentum works, how to measure it and the different ways it can be utilized.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

In this episode of Show Us Your Portfolio we speak with Alpha Architect founder Wes Gray. We discuss the three principles he uses to build his personal portfolio and take a detailed look the major assets within it. We also discuss his general views on portfolio management, his biggest investment mistakes and how he thinks about his long-term investing goals.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

In this episode we take a deep dive into risk parity with Adam Butler of Resolve Asset Management. We discuss the foundational principles of the strategy and its advantages over standard stock and bond portfolios. We also dig into the details of how risk parity portfolios are constructed and address some of the major misconceptions about the strategy.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

This week we speak with Martin Emery from GMO's Systematic Global Macro team. We discuss the current macro environment and what it means for long-term investors. We cover the outlook for inflation, the future of the 60-40 portfolio and the benefits of alternatives in a low return environment. We also talk about some of the unique aspects of their systematic approach including how they look at currency investing and incorporating sentiment into a global macro process.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Value investors in general tend to have an aversion to using momentum in their investment strategies. But the long-term evidence suggests they should rethink that. In this episode we look at some of the ways to use momentum to enhance a value portfolio.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Many investors think that options are just a vehicle that affects the portfolios of sophisticated investors. But their impact on the market goes well beyond that. In this episode, we talk to SpotGamma founder Brent Kochuba about the influence that options have on the stock market, and what that means for everyday investors. We discuss the role of options dealer hedging on flows within the market, why options expirations can often market major market turning points and what options tell us about market volatility.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

MORE ABOUT SPOTGAMMA

https://spotgamma.com

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

In this episode we talk with Dimensional Fund Advisors Director of Research Savina Rizova. We discuss her amazing story, from growing up in communist Bulgaria to recently being named one of Barron's 100 most influential women in finance. We also take a deep dive into factor investing and how Dimensional views the major factors including value, momentum, profitability and investment, and her research on intangible assets and their impact of investment strategy construction.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

The case for passive investing is a very strong one. With most active managers failing to keep up with the market, the arguments for passive are difficult to refute. But has the rise of passive introduced significant risks to the market? Our guest this week thinks it has. We talk to Simplify Asset Management's Mike Green about the potential dangers of the rise of passive investing and what they mean for investors. We also get his take on comparisons between the current market and the 2000 bear market, inflation and Fed policy, and the future of fundamental investing.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

With the market in a significant drawdown, there has been a renewed interest from investors in trend following strategies. Given its ability to limit losses during drawdowns and reduce volatility, that is certainly understandable. But like any investment strategy, it has both its strengths and its weaknesses. In this episode, we cover both of them and take a balanced look at the strategy. We also look at the details of implementing trend following strategies and what we have learned using them in the real world.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

In this episode we change things up from our usual topics and focus on financial planning. No matter how much experience and training we have, all of us tend to make mistakes with our finances. We talk with Plancorp CIO Peter Lazaroff about ten of the most common financial planning mistakes he has seen, and how we can avoid making them. We discuss the importance of not interrupting compounding, the dangers of lifestyle creep, why buying a starter home often isn't a good idea and the importance of aligning your spending with your values, as well as many other topics.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

We have always found it very informative when investors we respect talk about how they manage their personal portfolios. So we decided to start a new segment of the podcast where we talk to some of the smartest investors we know about their personal investment strategy. And we can't think of a better person to start with than Cambria founder Meb Faber. Meb has been very open publicly about how he manages his portfolio and uses a unique approach that blends public and private investing. In this episode, we dig into his investment approach, the thought process behind it and what we all can learn from it.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

In this episode we speak to Jack Schwager. Jack is the author of the Market Wizards series of books and has been studying the best traders for decades. He has interviewed some of history's most successful traders and investors for the series, including Paul Tudor Jones, Steve Cohen, Joel Greenblatt, Michael Steinhardt and many others. We discuss the biggest lessons investors can learn from these legendary investors and get his take on a variety of other topics including what makes a good interview, the impact of technology on trading and his outlook for the new Robinhood traders that have entered the market in recent years.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Inflation is probably the number one topic on investors' minds these days. But much of the information out there about it is either wrong or lacks the proper context. We have discussed the topic with many of the guests on Excess Returns and we wanted to put together a compilation of the best insights we have received. We talk with Orcam Financial's Cullen Roche, Epsilon Theory's Ben Hunt, O'Shaughnessy Asset Management's Ehren Stanhope and 42 Macro's Darius Dale about what causes inflation, its history and what we can learn from it, the Fed's ability to control it, and the types of investments that work best in an inflationary environment.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Value investing has produced some of the greatest investors of all time. Whether it be Benjamin Graham's deep value approach or Warren Buffett's quality at a reasonable price strategy, value has a long track record of success. But what if the great value investors of the future won't be human at all? What if machines can be trained to identify the best value stocks?

In this episode, we talk to John Alberg of Euclidean Technologies about applying machine learning to the process of selecting value stocks. We talk about the different types of machine learning and how these techniques can be utilized to select fundamentally sound stocks, We also discuss using machine learning techniques to avoid value traps, whether intuitive factors are more successful, areas where humans can still perform better than machines and much more.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Many investors think that the best way to maximum their spending rate in retirement is to invest in the asset classes with the highest long-term returns. And that is true to an extent, but managing drawdowns also plays a very important role in maximizing withdrawal rates. In this episode, we take an in depth look at the management of sequence risk in retirement and the different ways to approach it.

We discuss the importance of diversification, different withdrawal strategies and the potential role of alternative asset classes in retirement portfolios. We also look at how low future expected returns for both stocks and bonds impact withdrawal rates.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Many crypto investors tend to build their own portfolios and focus on the major coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum. But the crypto space is much more than that. Trying to get diversified exposure to crypto can be challenging, though. In this episode we talk to WisdomTree Global CIO Jeremy Schwartz and Ritholtz Wealth Director of Research Michael Batnick about the New Crypto Index they developed to help investors gain broad exposure to the space. We take in deep dive into the index construction process including the major categories of coins represented, the process of combining them together and the challenges of building a rebalancing strategy within the rapidly changing world of crypto.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

The Russian Ukraine conflict has been a challenging one for many of us to understand. In this episode, we speak with Ben Hunt of Epsilon Theory to help us understand how the conflict got to where it is today and what it means going forward. We discuss the lead up to the war, why Putin chose to invade and how the war can be won on the military, economic and narrative fronts. We also talk about its impact on the US economy and what it means for investors.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

When we started Excess Returns, we stayed away from having a standard closing question for guests because we couldn’t come up with one that summed up the knowledge of our guests into something simple that your average investor could understand. But a little over a year ago, we came up with a question that we thought worked perfectly.

If our goal was to help investors learn along with us, then it made the most sense to ask our guests the most important lesson they had learned themselves.

So we finally settled on our standard closing question:

Based on your experience in markets, if you could teach one lesson to your average investor, what would it be?

Since we started asking the question, we have received some amazing answers and we thought it would be interesting to take a look at some of the best ones.

Here are the top 10 lessons our guests would teach your average investor.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

In this episode, we speak with Gary Antonacci about his Dual Momentum investing approach. We look at both absolute and relative momentum individually, and the pros and cons of the measures that can be used to define them. We then discuss the process of combining them together into a dual momentum strategy. We also cover a wide variety of other momentum investing topics, including using modules to introduce uncorrelated assets into a strategy, whether value and quality can enhance momentum and how momentum works when applied to cryptocurrencies.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

While many investors are likely familiar with options, their impact on the stock market is much less understood. When an investor buys an option, it can kick off a series of flows into and out of the underlying stock or index that can have significant impact on the price of the instrument itself over time. And with options activity up dramatically in recent years, these flows have become much more important for investors to understand.

This week we take a deep dive into options and their impact on the stock market with Jason DeLorenzo of Ad Deum funds. We look at the major factors that impact the price of options and how those factors lead to option dealer flows that drive stock prices. We also discuss his "Overvixing" model that uses the relationship between the return of the S&P 500 and the VIX index to predict future market performance.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Many investors see macro forecasting as a process about making bold binary predictions about the future of the economy and the market. Those predictions can gets lots of press when they are right, but the reality is that risk management and probabilities are much more important to a macro process than big, bold calls. In this episode we talk to Darius Dale of 42 Macro, who has developed a systematic process to address these issues. We talk about the process of identifying the market regime using quantitative methods and how to use that information to build portfolios and manage risk. We also couldn't help but ask for his outlook on all the major asset classes based on his systematic framework.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

The GameStop short squeeze in early 2021 was the talk of the investing world. It had all the parts of a great story. It had some investors making massive profits, while others suffered huge losses. It had anonymous investors on social media as its heroes and hedge fund managers as it villains. It also had a significant social side to it, with many seeing it as an example of individual investors getting the best of Wall Street professionals.

But there is much more to the story than the popular narrative. In this episode, we go behind the scenes and get the real story from the Wall Street Journal's Spencer Jakab, author of the new book "The Revolution That Wasn't: GameStop, Reddit, and the Fleecing of Small Investors". We talk about what really happened and what all of us can learn from it.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

This week we are joined by David Gardner, founder of the Motley Fool. We discuss his unique Rule Breaker approach to finding long-term growth investments and the criteria that the most successful growth companies of our time have in common. We also cover a wide variety of other topics, including why having a sell discipline is overrated, the lessons from the biggest mistakes he has made and what he has learned from the Motley Fool's first venture capital fund.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

With the market experiencing its first correction in a while, we thought it would be interesting to look at some behind the scenes data we found interesting about the recent decline. We discuss the varying performance from value, the carnage in the growth space, the importance of discount rates and the impact of the decline on value and growth spreads.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Investors are constantly searching for the perfect portfolio. Although it may be elusive, there are common principles that can allow all of us to get closer to it. We speak to Stephen Foerster, co-author of the new book "In Pursuit of the Perfect Portfolio: The Stories, Voices, and Key Insights of the Pioneers Who Shaped the Way We Invest" about some of those principles, and what some of history's best investors and researchers can teach us about them.

Along with his co-author Andrew Lo, Stephen spoke to investing legends like Harry Markowitz, William Sharpe, Jeremy Siegel, Jack Bogle, Charley Ellis and Robert Shiller to capture their ideas on the construction of a perfect portfolio. We go through each of those interviews to identify the key lessons investors can learn from them.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

There is an interesting dichotomy in the growth investing space in that growth stocks as a whole tend to underperform the market over time, but the best performing individual stocks in the market also typically come from the growth space. This puts a premium on the ability to separate the winners from the losers for growth managers. Our guest this week has produced a very strong record of doing exactly that. We speak with Rick Schmidt, Partner and Portfolio Manager with Harding Loevner.

We discuss their process for selecting quality growth companies and the criteria they use within it. We also cover the impact of macro factors on growth investing, the current valuations in the growth space and the important attributes of good brands and management teams.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

2021 has been a really interesting year for markets. In this episode we talk about the biggest lessons we learned from the year, and from the post pandemic period in general. We discuss the debate as to whether the market is a voting or a weighing machine, the true definition of long-term and the importance of thinking in probabilities, as well as other significant lessons we learned.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Our goal when we started the Excess Returns podcast was to hopefully use the platform to help educate investors, and to learn ourselves in the process. Initially, we didn’t have outside guests on the podcast, but it quickly became evident that bringing in voices other than our own would significantly help us in achieving our goal. Starting with our first interview in 2020 with Tobias Carlisle up until our most recent one with Dave Wright from Sierra Investment Management, we have tried to put together the best group of guests we could with the goal of learning what has made them successful investors and how all of us can benefit from their experience.

In this episode, we look back at 2021 and look at the biggest lessons we learned from our most popular episodes of the year. We feature interviews with Tobias Carlisle, Cullen Roche, Ben Inker, Michael Mauboussin and Rob Arnott.

We hope you enjoy the discussions.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Conservative investing has a reputation for being boring. But our guest this week deploys a conservative approach that is far from that. We speak to Dave Wright of Sierra Investment Management. Sierra uses a unique trend following approach to manage its portfolios and mitigate risk. We discuss the current state of markets and the outlook for stocks and bonds as well as unique methods to manage risk in different market environments.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Michael Mauboussin is one of the most insightful long-term thinkers in the investing world. For decades, his research has taken deep dives into markets, valuation and how we can all become better long-term investors. He is currently Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global.

We talk to Michael about a wide range of topics, including factor investing, the dangers of simple valuation multiples, the importance of intangible assets, the proper application of base rates and the process of expectations investing.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

There is a perception many have that the market is rigged in favor of corporate insiders. And there is certainly justification for that perception. In this episode we take an in depth look at the issue with Wharton professor and insider trading expert Daniel Taylor. We start with the basics, including how insider trading is defined and the laws that govern it. Then we dig deep into his research and what it tells us about the behavior of insiders and whether they have an unfair advantage.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

In this episode, we speak with O'Shaughnessy Asset Management's Ehren Stanhope about his excellent research paper "The Great Inflation, Factors, and Stock Returns." We discuss the history of inflation and the major regime changes that have occurred throughout history and what we can learn from them to help evaluate the current inflationary picture. And we look at how different factors and assets have performed in high inflation environments.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

In this episode we take a deep dive into technical analysis with Andrew Thrasher, founder of Thrasher Analytics and portfolio manager at the Financial Enhancement Group. We look at the major tools that technicians use and the methods they utilize to apply them. We go through a real world example using the S&P 500 to see how these tools are put into practice. We also cover his excellent paper "Forecasting Volatility Tsunamis" and discuss the conditions that he found were typically present prior to significant spikes in market volatility.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Asset pricing models have evolved significantly over the past several decades. From the Capital Asset Pricing Model to Fama and French's 3 Factor Model to their more recent 5 and 6 Factor Models, academic research has continued to work to improve our understanding of what drives stock prices.

But our guest this week thinks asset pricing models might need a revolution more than evolution.

We speak with Lu Zhang, who is the John W. Galbreath Chair and Professor of Finance at the Fisher College of Business at Ohio State University. He is also the creator of the Q factor model, which takes a first principles approach to asset pricing that starts with economic theory rather than adopting the framework of previous models.

We discuss the evolution of asset pricing models over time and take a detailed look at the major models that have come along the way. We then look at the philosophical arguments for why traditional asset pricing models may be taking the wrong approach and look at the details of the Q factor model.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

We are currently in a very interesting time for investors. We have experienced a run in equities following the 2020 decline that many did not think was possible. We have seen unprecedented fiscal stimulus and many are worried about inflation. And despite all of that, bond yields remain very low. This week we take a look at all the major asset classes and how we can make sense of the current situation with Westwood's Adrian Helfert. We discuss the future of stocks and bonds, as well as the outlook for alternative assets like commodities and gold. We also discuss the lessons he learned from his experience as a combat medic and how his background in physics has helped him as an investor.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Momentum was a factor that many academics were very reluctant to embrace. Our guest this week, Sheridan Titman, helped to change that with his 1993 paper "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency" that he co-wrote with Narasimhan Jegadeesh. In this interview, we discuss both his original work on momentum and what he has learned since. We also cover his research on combining value and momentum and the relationship between location and firm value, and what he thinks practitioners get wrong about academic research.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

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Inflation is probably the most talked about topic in investing today. Some think it has become a major problem. Others (including the Fed) think it is transitory. While still others think we are headed for a repeat of the 1970s or even hyperinflation. But many of the opinions on both side are not informed by the facts. So we wanted to do an episode where we started with the basics to help us understand what is going on now, and what might happen in the future. To do that, we couldn't think of a better person to talk to than Discipline Funds founder and author of the Pragmatic Capitalism blog Cullen Roche. We look at inflation from the ground up.

We discuss:

the various ways to measure it and how they are different
the history of inflation in the US
why quantitative easing didn't cause inflation, but fiscal stimulus did
the major forces that have kept inflation down
the differences between now and the 1970s
what hyperinflation is and why it is very unlikely

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

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This week we talk to Ritholtz Wealth CFO Bill Sweet. Bill has had a very unique career, which started serving our country in the military and also included a stint in his family's tax business prior to his work at Ritholtz. We talk about the lessons Bill has learned in his career and how others can benefit from them. We also take an in depth look at the Biden tax plan and cover the major points investors should be aware of in it. And we discuss what he has learned as an early adopter of direct indexing for clients.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

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Value investors currently love emerging markets. Whether you look at projections from GMO or Research Affiliates or any of the other major firms who look at expected returns, you will see a much more favorable outlook for emerging markets than the US. But there is another side of the emerging markets story that has little to do with traditional value investing. There is also a significant growth story being driven by the emerging market consumer, and that story is being fueled by the internet. In this episode, we take an in depth look at the growth potential of emerging markets with Kevin Carter, founder of the EMQQ ETF, which is a pretty mazing growth story itself, with over $1 billion in assets. We look ay why standard emerging market indexes may be broken and why the emerging market consumer is leading one of the greatest growth stories in the world.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

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The 60-40 portfolio has been a solid long-term performer for investors. It has worked in bull markets. It has also held up well in deflationary shocks. But with expected returns for both stocks and bonds well below their long-term averages and inflation potentially on the horizon, many have questioned whether it still makes sense. In this episode, we look at the future of the 60-40 portfolios and some potential alternatives to it.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

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Many factor investors tend to use similar approaches. You will typically see some value and momentum in their strategies. You will also likely see some quality, and maybe even some low volatility. Our guest this week has a more unique approach that is both more granular and dynamic than the typical factor approach and utilizes many unique factors outside of those traditionally used by factor investors.

We speak to Harin de Silva, Portfolio Manager of the Analytic Investors team at Wells Fargo. We discuss his unique approach to multi-factor investing that focuses on both return and risk. We also discuss some of the major issues facing factor investors today, including the future of factors and the recent struggles of value investing.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

After years of struggle, it seemed like the big rebound value investors had been waiting for was upon us in the wake of the 2020 bear market. But recent months have seen a return to the dominance of growth, which has many investors believing value's rebound was nothing more than a head fake. This week, we are joined by GMO Head of Asset Allocation Ben Inker to discuss the recent quarterly letter he wrote to counter these arguments. We discuss the common arguments investors are making against value and why they may not hold up when subjected to scrutiny. We also get Ben's thoughts on a variety of other issues including factor timing, the future of the 60-40 portfolio and how the current period value compares to the period in the early 2000s.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

With bonds yields near all time lows and stock valuations near all time highs, the future returns of the 60/40 portfolio don't look promising. This has led many investors to move up the risk curve in an effort to boost their returns. But that increased risk also comes with an increased chance of significant problems in future market drawdowns.

This week, we talk to two guests who have come up with an interesting approach that attacks the problem of lower future expected returns in a very different way. We talk to Corey Hoffstein of Newfound Research and Rodrigo Gordillo of Resolve Asset Management about their new paper, Return Stacking: Strategies For Overcoming a Low Return Environment. We discuss how the combination of prudent leverage and uncorrelated return streams can potentially add return to a portfolio without a substantial increase in risk.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

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LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Our guest in this episode is Gregg Fisher of Quent Capital. Gregg was a pioneer in factor investing and the founder of Gerstein Fisher, which he grew to over $5 billion in assets before selling it in 2016. We discuss Greg's current strategy, which seeks to bring a factor-based approach to investing in innovation. We also cover his extensive research on factor investing, including the future outlook for factor premiums, why dividend investing may be overrated and the importance of investor behavior.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

MORE INFORMATION ON QUENT CAPITAL

https://www.quentcapital.com/

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Buying stocks of high quality companies is something investors are almost universally attracted to. But the details of how to define quality, and the reasons why it works can be more complicated to understand. In this episode, we look at the different ways to define quality, the arguments for why it works, and how it can be incorporated into an investment strategy.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Valuing factors can be a confusing process. Not only are there are different factors to look at, there are also many ways to define them and a variety of different approaches to look at their valuation. In this episode, we look at what factor valuation can tell us and examine our process for valuing factors in detail. We also look at the current valuation of all the major factors.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

When many investors think about dividend investing they think about buying the highest yielding stocks. But investing in quality companies that are growing their dividends can in many ways be a superior approach. This week, we talk to Ryan Kruger of Freedom Day Solutions about their approach for finding high quality dividend payers. We also cover a variety of other topics including the two most important questions investors need to answer, his advice for new financial planners, what he has learned as a small issuer running an ETF, and why investors may want to spend more time focusing on their human capital and less on their investment capital.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Conviction is probably the most important thing in investing. Regardless of the investment strategy you utilize, the ability to stick with it during the challenging periods is required to achieve its potential. But conviction can also sometimes be a bad thing. It can lead us to see certainty where it doesn't exist. It can also lead us to discount valid arguments against our investment approach.

In this episode we discuss the downside of conviction and what investors can do to make sure it doesn't derail their investment plan.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Many investors tend to think growth and momentum investing are highly aligned with each other. But as we have seen recently, with many momentum funds making an aggressive move into value, they also can be very different. In this episode, we talk to Randy Watts, Chief Investment Officer at O'Neil Global Advisors and Jeremy Schwartz, Global Head of Research at WisdomTree about an interesting strategy they have created to combine the two together.

We discuss the challenges of growth investing, the best ways to measure growth, and how to identify it in its early stages. And on the momentum side, we cover combining momentum with mean reversion, the importance of the right rebalancing time frame, and the benefits of momentum consistency.

Since we are both big fans of Jeremy's economic discussions with Jeremy Siegel on the Behind the Markets podcast, we also couldn't resist asking a couple of questions about the outlook for the economy and inflation.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

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LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

This week we bring back our first repeat guest on the podcast. And we can't think of a better person to have back than our good friend Tobias Carlisle. When Toby originally came on the podcast, we were in the middle of the COVID-19 crisis, the market was down, and value stocks were struggling badly. Since then, the situation has substantially improved both in the economy and in the stock market. We talk to Toby about the resurgence in value stocks and their outlook going forward, the changes in the market in the wake of the COVID-19 crisis and what he has learned in his 2+ years managing a value ETF, among many other topics.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

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LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Investors tend to either invest in passive funds or operate at the other extreme and use active strategies that select individual stocks. But there is a case to be made for a strategy in the middle of those two that focuses on sectors. Sector investing allows investors to make active bets without the idiosyncratic risk that comes with picking individual stocks. In this episode, we cover sector investing in depth with Matt Bartolini, the Head of SPDR Americas Research at State Street. We cover the current sector landscape and how it has changed over time. We also review the research on sector rotation strategies and the pros and cons of the common approaches used to invest in sectors.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Factor timing seems so sensible on the surface. The idea of adding exposure to out of favor factors appeals to investors' desires to buy low and sell high. But the reality is much more complicated than that. In this episode, we look at what the academic research shows about factor timing and some different approaches to building investment strategies that time factors.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Investors love dividends. They like them for their potential to beat the market. They like them for the income they provide. Some even like them because of their perceived safety. But the reality of all of those things is a little bit different than the common perception. When you look at each of the benefits that buying high yield stocks provides, you will typically find that there is a better way to accomplish that same thing using an alternative approach.

In this episode, we look at the realities of investing in dividend paying stocks and how that differs from what many investors believe.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

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LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Sometimes as investors we tend to focus their efforts on the wrong things. We will spend a lot of time building complicated strategies. We will focus on trying to beat the market. We will trade when there is no need to. But in doing this we will often miss what is usually the biggest driver of our returns: our own behavior.

In this episode, we speak to Joe Wiggins, author of the Behavioural Investment blog about the detrimental effect our behavior can have on our investing returns, and some ways we can improve that.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

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David Dreman is a well known contrarian investor and the author of Contrarian Investment Strategies: The Next Generation. Dreman's Kemper-Dreman High Return Fund was one of the best-performing mutual funds ever, ranking as the best of 255 funds in its peer groups from 1988 to 1998, according to Lipper Analytical Services. In this episode, we take a detailed look at the investment strategy Dreman outlined in his book, how it has performed since we first starting tracking it in 2003, and the outlook for it going forward.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Investors will seek any type of edge they can find. Many run complicated models to try to generate an excess return. Others endure the pain that generating long-term excess returns using factors often entails.

But sometimes the easiest ways to boost returns are also the most simple.

In this episode, we look at the rebalancing premium and how properly rebalancing a portfolio can outperform the returns of the assets within it. We look at why rebalancing works and discuss some tactics that can increase its effectiveness.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

When we started our podcast in 2019, we were hoping we could create something that would be educational and informative for people who follow our content. But one of the biggest surprises for us is how much we have learned ourselves.

We have been fortunate to interview some of the smartest investors we know, and each interview has taught us something new and expanded our understanding of some complex and interesting concepts. To celebrate our 100th episode, we have pulled together our favorite clips from the 28 interviews we have done so far to extract the lessons from them.

We would like to thank everyone who took the time to listen to us through our first 100 episodes. We look forward to the next 100.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

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LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

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Although the word unprecedented tends to be overused, we are seeing many things in the market currently that many of us haven't seen before. Fiscal stimulus has increased to levels that truly are unprecedented, inflation may become an issue for the first time in a long time, and many investors are arguing the fundamentals don't matter anymore

This week, we are fortunate to be joined by Research Affiliates founder Rob Arnott to help us work through all of it. We discuss the implications of government stimulus, how to identify bubbles in advance and the future of value investing, among many other topics.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

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LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

In a world where inflation is not a threat, a standard 60-40 portfolio does an excellent job of providing growth, while also limiting downside when stocks get choppy. You don’t need anything more than the last 40 years, when the 60-40 portfolio had its best stretch ever, to illustrate that. The 60/40 has produced a 9.2% annualized return going back to 1988 – that is an impressive return for a portfolio that buys the overall market and aggregate bond index, rebalances once a year and calls it a day.

But with inflation potentially on the horizon, some argue that the 60-40 may not be enough anymore. In this episode, we look at some quantitative strategies that can offer alternatives to the 60-40 portfolio and discuss their pros and cons.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

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FOLLOW JUSTIN

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LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

We have had many experts in factor investing on the podcast. We have even had some who have published research in academic journals. But we haven't had anyone who has produced the volume of research that our guest this week has. Jason Hsu is the co-founder of Research Affiliates and founder of Rayliant. He is also an associate editor of the Journal of Investment Management and serves on the editorial board of the Financial Analysts Journal.

We discuss the current state of factor investing and get his take on all the major investing factors. We also discuss why he sees significant future potential in the Chinese market and the innovative approach he is taking to apply factor investing there.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT RAYLIANT

Rayliant Global Advisors

FOLLOW JASON ON TWITTER

Jason C Hsu (@hsu_jason) / Twitter

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

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FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

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Research shows that value stocks can generate an excess return because the market tends to overestimate their problems, and value investors benefit when it realizes that. But despite that being true on average, many value stocks actually have even bigger problems than the market has priced in. This week, we look at one of the quantitative strategies we follow that attempts to separate the winners from the losers within the value investing space.

We discuss Joseph Piotroski's paper "Value Investing: The Use of Historical Financial Statement Information to Separate Winners from Losers". In the paper, Piotroski developed a series of nine fundamental tests (which he called the F Score) to identify value stocks that are more likely to generate an excess return going forward. He found that stocks with high F Scores showed significant improvements in performance relative to stocks with low F Scores. We examine the nine criteria used in this strategy in detail and talk about how it can be implemented in an investment strategy.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

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FOLLOW JUSTIN

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There have been so many books written about Warren Buffett that it can be hard to keep track of them. But before all of that could happen, someone had to be the first. This week we are joined by Robert Hagstrom, whose book The Warren Buffett Way was the first book that took a detailed look at Buffett's investment strategy. And subsequent to that, he has also published The Warren Buffett Portfolio and Warren Buffett: Inside the Ultimate Money Mind, which looked at how Buffett constructs portfolios and the mental aspects on his investment process. Robert is also a Senior Portfolio Manager at EquityCompass and has a long record of taking the principles of Buffett and applying them in the real world.

In the interview, we look at the details of the investment process that has made Buffett successful and what Robert has learned managing money using Buffett's principles over his career. We also look at Robert's lessons from working with Bill Miller and how Miller has helped redefine the way investors define value investing.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

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The growth of ARK investments has been one of the biggest stories of the past decade in the ETF space. its flagship fund, the ARK Innovation ETF has seen its asset explode over the past year or so. In January of 2020 the fund had about $1.8B in assets and at the peak earlier this year the fund was at $27B.

But many in the investing community have worried that the firm's rapid growth and concentrated approach to investing could have a significant downside if investor sentiment turns against the stocks it owns and investors begin redeeming their shares in the fund. Some worry this could result in a cascading effect that could have major implications not only for ARK shareholders, but also for the market as a whole.

In this episode we take a behind the scenes look at the ETF structure and how the way ETFs work could both contribute to and mitigate the possibility of this type of event.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

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FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

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With the rapid growth in ETFs, it seems like almost every product idea possible has been tried. So it is rare to find something that is unique and hasn't been done before. This week, we talk to someone who has done not one, but two things that were never done before in the ETF space.

We speak with Robert Cantwell, the founder and CEO of Upholdings. Robert was not only the first person to convert a hedge fund into an ETF, but he also was the first to get approval to hold private companies within the ETF structure. In this interview, we take an in depth look at both of these and also discuss Robert's approach to finding stocks with the potential to compound capital over long periods of time.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

MORE ABOUT UPHOLDINGS

Upholdings Investments

FOLLOW ROBERT ON TWITTER

https://twitter.com/UPHOLDINGS

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

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FOLLOW JUSTIN

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There is no shortage of discussion in the media about the valuation of the market. And with the big market run we have had recently, valuations have once again become stretched. But what does market valuation tell us about the future returns of the market? And is there anything investors can do to adjust their portfolios based on market valuations? In this episode, we take an in depth look at the major ways to value the market, how they are calculated, and the different ways investors can use them. We also look at where the market currently stands from a valuation perspective and look at areas of relative value within it. We hope you enjoy the discussion. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA https://www.validea.com FOLLOW OUR BLOG https://blog.validea.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

The 4% rule has become one of the cornerstones of retirement planning. And in many ways that makes sense because investors who have spent 4% of their portfolio annually have historically had a very high chance of making their money last. But with expected returns on both stocks and bonds at historical lows, the 4% rule may not work as well in the future as it has in the past.

This week, we explore this concept and look at a different approach to retirement planning with Dr. Wade Pfau, who is a Professor of Retirement Income at the American College and a principal at McLean Asset Management.

We cover a variety of topics including the safety first approach to retirement, the impact of expected returns on retirement planning and the role that home equity should play in a retirement plan.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

MORE ABOUT WADE

Retirement Researcher - by Wade Pfau, Ph.D. CFA & McLean Asset Management

FOLLOW WADE ON TWITTER

Wade Pfau (@WadePfau) / Twitter

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

The stock market has had a huge run since last March. That fact, combined with unprecedented government stimulus, the potential for future inflation and other risk factors has many investors worried. In this episode, we look at some things investors can do to deal with high levels of uncertainly, and the risks associated with them. We also look at the difference between what works in theory and what works in practice when it comes to adjusting portfolios during uncertain times.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

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LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

We are currently in a very challenging time for building multi-asset portfolios. The 60-40 portfolios is coming off one of its best decades ever, but the expected future returns on both stocks and bonds are very low. And unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus have added additional variables into the equation. This week we talk to Jim Masturzo, who is a partner and head of multi-asset at Research Affiliates and also helped create their popular Asset Allocation Interactive tool, to try to make sense of all of this. We discuss their process for projecting expected returns and the challenge of building multi-asset portfolios in this environment, the role that potential future inflation plays in their process, and his thought process when looking at a new asset like Bitcoin. We hope you enjoy the discussion.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

The success of of the low volatility factor can be challenging to explain. Investing theory teaches us that to get an additional return, we need to take additional risk and if we reduce risk, our return should come down with it. But low volatility seems to defy that rule. In this episode, we look at the low volatility factor, how it is defined, and why it works. We also look at how the returns of low volatility can be enhanced by combining it with other factors, and take an in depth look at our Multi-Factor Investor strategy on Validea, which is based on the paper The Conservative Formula by Pim van Vliet, and how it puts that idea into action.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Deep value investing is about buying companies that other investors don’t want. It is about investing in companies where the current situation doesn’t look great – actually in many cases it looks horrible. On average, investors tend to overestimate the problems in these types of businesses and as a result, stocks of these companies get cheap. But for some of these cheap companies, the situation is actually worse than what the market has priced in. These types of stocks are typically referred to as value traps. Although value traps come with the territory in value investing, the ability to limit them can have a positive impact on a value strategy. In this episode, we discuss some of the metrics we use to try to do that.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

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LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

The emerging market universe includes a very diverse set of countries, many of which are sorely lacking in the types of freedom enjoyed by their people. Some of the biggest countries in emerging market indexes like China are also some of the worst offenders in this regard. It has been commonly accepted by many that investing in these types of companies is unavoidable for investors who want emerging market exposure and so most investors just ignore the behaviors of the regimes that run the countries within the space.

But what if you could invest in only the countries that are the most free within the space, and potentially boost your returns at the same time? We discuss this idea with Perth Tolle, the founder of Life + Liberty Indexes. Perth has developed a scoring system that ranks all emerging market countries based on their levels of freedom and has constructed an index that includes the highest scorers.

We discuss the story of how she came to create this index, the criteria that go into it and its potential to improve the world of emerging market investing.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

MORE ABOUT LIFE AND LIBERTY INDEXES

HOME | Frdm (lifeandlibertyindexes.com)

FOLLOW PERTH ON TWITTER

Perth Tolle (@Perth_Tolle) / Twitter

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

This week, we look at some interesting research that took a unique approach to explaining the value and size premiums. We examine the paper "Migration" by Eugene Fama and Kenneth French. The paper grouped stocks into categories based on their size and valuation and then looked at how the migration between those groups impacted both the value and size premiums. We take a look at what they found as well as the lessons investors can take from it.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

With the stock market at all-time highs and returns over the past year some of the best in history, the word "bubble" is getting thrown around more and more by investors. But before we jump to conclusions, it is first important to understand what a bubble is and what the term means from a practical standpoint for investors.

In this episode, we look at bubbles through a framework based on the three questions that we think are most important for investors to ask.

What is a Bubble?
Can a Bubble Be Identified in Advance?
If We Are in a Bubble, What Can I Do About It?

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

The last 40 years have been an exceptionally strong period for a portfolio of stocks and bonds. With stocks performing well and bonds benefitting from a tailwind of constantly falling interest rates, a portfolio consisting of only the two asset classes has been all investors have needed.

But a deeper look at market history reveals that there were significant periods where a standard stock and bond mix didn't serve investors well.

In this episode, we take a deep dive into the concept of all weather investing with Eric Crittenden of Standpoint Funds. All weather investing seeks to hold a diverse portfolio of assets that have the potential to perform well across a wide range of economic environments, including the inflationary environments that have tripped up the standard 60/40 portfolio in the past. We discuss the benefits of an all weather portfolio, the process of constructing a portfolio to stand up to a wide range of potential environments and the role of behavior in building an all weather strategy.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

MORE ABOUT STANDPOINT FUNDS

Standpoint - Home (standpointfunds.com)

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Investors tend to associate momentum with growth stocks. If you try to name a typical momentum stock off the top of your head, you will probably think of names like Google or Facebook or Amazon. And that is especially true when we have gone through a growth dominated period like we have in the past decade.

But the reality is that momentum doesn't care about growth. It doesn't care about value either. It also doesn't care about quality. All it cares about is that a stock's price has gone up.

In this episode, we look at why momentum is a chameleon, and why that fact can make it challenging to follow for many investors.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Many investors think all value strategies are fairly similar to each other. And as a result they expect the value funds they invest in will all perform similarly over time. But the reality is that the behind the scenes details that go into building a value strategy can play a major role in how it performs and lead to major deviations in performance among value funds. In this episode, we take a look at one way that value strategies can differ - the metric they use to define value. We look at the major value metrics and the pros and cons of each of them. We also look at the construction of value composites and why their benefit might come from a different source than the one you think.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

There have been hundreds of books written about Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway. So it rare for a book come out that does something that none of the others have. But a new book coming out in April does exactly that by offering the first full chronological history of Berkshire Hathaway, from the period prior to Buffett all the way to the current day. In this episode, we talk to Adam Mead, the author of The Complete Financial History of Berkshire Hathaway: A Chronological Analysis of Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger's Conglomerate Masterpiece.

We discuss:

The origin story that brought Buffett together with Berkshire
Buffett's best and worst investments, and his best investment you probably haven't heard about
The key traits that led to Buffett's success
What it is like to attend the Berkshire annual meeting

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

BUY THE BOOK

The Complete Financial History of Berkshire Hathaway: A Chronological Analysis of Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger's Conglomerate Masterpiece: Mead, Adam J.: 9780857199126: Amazon.com: Books

ADAM'S BLOG

Home Page - The Oracle's Classroom

FOLLOW ADAM ON TWITTER

Adam J. Mead (@BRK_Student) / Twitter

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

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The Complete Financial History of Berkshire Hathaway: A Chronological Analysis of Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger's Conglomerate Masterpiece

The Motley Fool is not known for their quantitative models. They are known for a discretionary growth style of investing that attempts to identify game changing companies and then holds them for the long-term, seeking to generate returns that are multiples of their original investment.

But despite their discretionary nature, their book The Motley Fool Investment Guide did contain a detailed quantitative model to select small-cap growth stocks. When we launched Validea in 2003, we wouldn't have guessed that this model would have outperformed all the other models we launched, but it has produced the best return of all the models we follow in the 18 years since.

In this episode, we take a look at the model we extracted from the Motley Fool Investment Guide and the criteria it uses to select small-cap growth stocks.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

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Systematic value strategies have had one of the worst performing periods in their history in the past decade. This extended underperformance, coupled with changes in the market and economy that many argue are unfavorable for the strategy have led many to question whether it is permanently broken.

As believers in the strategy, we have a natural tendency to discount these arguments and to invite on guests who support our opinion. So in this episode, we wanted to counteract that bias and look at the other side of the coin.

We are joined by Applied Finance founder Rafael Resendes, who has been a vocal critic of traditional approaches to value. We talk about why traditional value may not produce the kind of results many value investors are looking for going forward and examine the arguments against the strategy.

We discuss:

the difference between value and cheapness
the importance of economic profit
the case against the investment factor
the five factor model he built to address deficiencies in popular academic models

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT APPLIED FINANCE

Applied Finance Capital Management

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Rafael Resendes (@rresendes) / Twitter

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

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FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

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There is a popular narrative out there that value investing is back. And it makes sense given the huge run that many value funds have had off the market bottom. But when you look beneath the surface, it turns out what drove those returns may have little to do with value at all. In this episode, we look at what has actually driven the returns of many value strategies in the past year, and the opportunity it may create for long-term value investors.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

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In this episode, we are joined by Kevin Zatloukal. Kevin teaches Computer Science at the University of Washington and has his Ph.D. in Computer Science from MIT. He previously was a programmer for both Microsoft and Google. He is also a member of O'Shaughnessy Asset Management's Research Partner Program, where he has written two papers applying machine learning concepts to investing. In the interview, we discuss the basics of machine learning and some examples of how it is applied, including:

the different types of machine learning and some common algorithms
how machine learning can be used in fantasy football to identify players with the potential for success - the application of decision stumps and clustering to value investing
the balance between intuition and empirical results

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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Kevin Zatloukal (@kczat) / Twitter

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

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In this episode, we discuss the major points Warren Buffett covered in his 2021 annual letter and talk about some lessons investors can learn from them.

We discuss:

the importance of recognizing mistakes and learning from them
why operating earnings are a better measure of Berkshire's business than GAAP earnings
the evolution of Buffett's investment approach over time
why Berkshire's approach differs from most other conglomerates

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

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In this episode, we are joined by John Montgomery, the founder and CIO of Bridgeway Capital Management. Bridgeway is unique in the world of Wall Street, where profits are usually the primary motive, in that it donates 50% of its profits to charity, makes everyone who works at the company a partner, and strives to maintain a low ratio of compensation of its highest paid team members relative to the lowest paid. The firm has also built an excellent long-term record managing quantitative, factor-based strategies. In the interview, we discuss Bridgeway's unique culture, John's path to becoming a quantitative investor, and the biggest lessons of his career running factor models. We also talk about Bridgeway's process of building quantitative models and how they view the major investing factors. We hope you enjoy the discussion.

MORE ABOUT BRIDGEWAY

Statistical, Evidence Based Investing | Bridgeway Capital Management

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

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In this episode, we are trying something new. There is so much academic research out there about markets, and what drives their returns over time, that it can be very difficult for investors to keep up with all of it. So we are going to start highlighting some of our favorite academic papers each month and breaking down their key lessons.

We start with paper Replicating Anomalies by Lu Zhang, Chen Xue and Kewei Hou. In this paper, the authors examined 452 stock market anomalies to see how they held up once the impact of micro-cap stocks was reduced. We summarize the findings from the paper and what they mean for investors.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

DIRECT LINK TO REPLICATING ANOMALIES PAPER

Replicating Anomalies by Kewei Hou, Chen Xue, Lu Zhang :: SSRN

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

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FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

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The rapid rise and fall of GameStop earlier this year was unlike anything many of us have seen in our investing careers. The stock's price went from the single digits to upwards of $400 per share in a very short time, and then lost most its value in the weeks that followed. In this episode, we take a look behind the scenes at the factors that led to GameStop's massive gains, and how those same factors eventually led to the ensuing decline We also take a look at some lessons investors can learn from the GameStop saga.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

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Risk is one of the most difficult concepts in investing to define. Part of that is because we face many risks as investors that come from many different directions. But another part of it is that risk is ultimately different for every investor, which makes a universal definition impossible to find.

In this episode, we look at some of the most important risks we face as investors, and why they are impossible to disentangle from our own behavior. We also look at some practical ways we use to measure risk to help optimize results for the focused factor-based strategies we follow.

We hope you enjoy the discussion

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

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Joel Greenblatt produced exceptional returns as managing partner at Gotham Capital, a New York City-based hedge fund he founded. The firm averaged a remarkable 40 percent annualized return over more than two decades .In his 2005 bestseller The Little Book That Beats The Market, Greenblatt laid out a very simple two variable strategy that more than doubled the market return in his testing.

In this episode, we take a deep dive into the magic formula, how it works, and its pros and cons.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

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There is perhaps no investment factor with more long-term data to support it than momentum. But despite that, its real world usage lags far behind other factors like value. Part of the reason for this is the fact that momentum can be much less intuitive for investors. It is easy for investors to understand why they should buy a stock that trades at a discounted valuation, but it is much more difficult to understand why they should invest in a stock solely because its price has gone up.

In this episode, we take a deep dive into momentum investing with Alpha Architect's Jack Vogel. We discuss why momentum works, how it is measured, and some potential ways to enhance the returns of momentum strategies. We also cover the pros and cons of trend following and why the strategy can be so difficult to implement in the real world.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT ALPHA ARCHITECT

Alpha Architect Home - Alpha Architect

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ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

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Our economy is changing. Gone are the days where the biggest companies require substantial physical assets to operate and grow their businesses. Most of the companies that dominate our economy today rely on assets like technology, brand value, and patents to power their businesses. In this episode, we look at the impact of intangible assets on value investing and investment strategies that rely on fundamentals. We discuss the challenges of valuing intangible assets, and the different approaches that can be used to do it. We also tackle the debate over whether intangible assets should be included on standard financial statements.

We hope you enjoy the discussion

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

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There are many misconceptions about private equity. Most investors see it as a domain where high net worth investors and institutions earn returns that can't be achieved via public markets. Investors typically also view the success of private equity as the result of the ability of private equity firms to go in and make operational changes to businesses to unlock their true potential. But it turns out the reality is much less exciting than that. As is the case in public market investing, it turns out that fundamentals and valuation are a large driver of returns.

In this episode, we speak to Brian Chingono of Verdad Capital about the true drivers of private equity returns, and how those returns can be replicated using a systematic strategy in public markets. We also cover some other interesting areas of Verdad's research, including how high yield spreads can be used to identify opportunities for value stocks and whether bond upgrades and downgrades can be predicted via machine learning.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VERDAD

Verdad (verdadcap.com)

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ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

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After a decade of struggle, the past six months have finally given value investors reasons for optimism. Although the recent outperformance pales in comparison to the underperformance over the course of the decade, the fact that performance has improved, coupled with the arguments that a move toward increased fiscal stimulus may lead to a higher inflationary environment that would benefit value, has many value investors, including us, thinking we may have finally reached the turning point. And market experts have also jumped on the value train, with many predicting a strong year for value.

But times like these are our most dangerous ones as investors. When we become convinced we are right, it becomes easy to miss the arguments for the other side. So in this episode we decided to challenge ourselves and to try to make the best case we can against value investing.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

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Dividend based investing strategies are very popular among investors. The ability to receive regular cash payments from the equities they own and a belief that dividend paying stocks outperform the market are both major drivers of this popularity. But this preference for dividend stocks often exceeds the reality of the benefits they provide. In this episode, we take a look at the facts behind dividend investing. We look at how dividend-paying stocks perform over time and why the source of their outperformance may be different than many investors think. We also look at alternative ways to accomplish the goals of strategies based around dividends.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

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Peter Lynch is one of the most successful mutual fund managers of all time. Lynch guided Fidelity Investment's Magellan Fund to a 29.2 percent average annual return from 1977 until his retirement in 1990, almost doubling the S&P 500's 15.8 percent yearly return over that time. And he did it with an approach that is very unique among history's most successful investors.

In its paper Superstar Investors, AQR tried to use factors explain the historical performance of some of the best investors of all time, and Lynch's performance was the most difficult to explain using that framework.

In this episode, we look at Lynch's approach to investing and our quantitative strategy based on him, which we extracted from his book One Up On Wall Street. We also look at why his strategy is so difficult to quantify.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

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There is a common misconception that a good company is always a good investment. But that sometimes isn't the case. The reason for that comes down to the role that expectations play in investing. Companies with good fundamentals typically have high expectations built into their stock price, while companies with poor fundamentals typically have low expectations embedded in their price. But either way, the key for investors is identifying companies where there is a gap between expectations and reality. In this episode, we look at the importance of expectations in investing and how investors can look at this issue. We also look at some systematic ways to take advantage of the differences between expectations and reality. We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

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When we started our podcast late last year, we were hoping we could create something that would be educational and informative for people who follow our content. We were hoping we could take some of the lessons we have learned in running quant models over the past decade and share them with other investors who are looking to learn and improve. But one of the biggest surprises for us in the first year of the podcast, though, is how much we have learned ourselves.

We have been fortunate to interview some of the smartest investors we know, and each interview has taught us something new and expanded our understanding of some complex and interesting concepts. To bring 2020 to a close, we took a look at our five most popular interviews of the year and found the most important lesson we learned from each of them. We bring all those lessons together in our final episode of the year.

We would like to thank everyone who took the time to listen to us this year. We hope you have a happy to safe New Year.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

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https://www.validea.com

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No investor can match the combination of Warren Buffett's annual returns and the period of time he has been able to sustain them. Buffett has generated those returns in a variety of ways, many of which your average investor could never copy. But Buffett's greatest contribution to the investing world likely isn't his returns or his approach to picking stocks. Buffett's greatest contribution has been his willingness to help all of us become better investors. Through his writings, his annual meetings, and his general willingness to share his knowledge, Buffett has probably contributed more to educating other investors than anyone in history. In this episode, we look at some of the biggest lessons investors can learn from Buffett.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

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https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

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The way economic policy is implemented has undergone some major changes in the past decade. The Federal Reserve's response to the Great Financial Crisis, and the continued quantitative easing in its aftermath, marked a significant change in the way the central bank implements monetary policy. And the fiscal policy response to the current crisis also marked a significant departure from how things have been done in the past.

In this episode we are joined by one of our favorite economic thinkers, Cullen Roche, to help us make sense of all of this. Cullen is an expert on Federal Reserve policy and one of the few people who predicted that the outcome of quantitative easing would not be the significant inflation that many thought it would. We discuss a variety of topics including why quantitative easing hasn't caused inflation, the implications of the recent massive government stimulus, Modern Monetary Theory, and the role inflation plays in the value/growth dynamic.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

CULLEN'S BLOG

Pragmatic Capitalism (pragcap.com)

FOLLOW CULLEN ON TWITTER

https://twitter.com/cullenroche

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

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https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

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https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

The academic research supporting the momentum factor is very strong. But most of that research focuses on the momentum in a stock's price. An interesting research paper written by Dashan Huang looked at the potential to enhance the excess of return of price momentum by also looking at the momentum in a firm's fundamentals. In this episode we discuss this paper and the pros and cons of combining fundamental and price momentum. We also outline the seven variable system the paper uses to calculate fundamental momentum and how it separates out firms who are showing improvements in their businesses.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

We have reached the one year anniversary of the podcast so we wanted to take a break from our regular investing episodes for a week and reflect back on our first year and what we have learned.

In this episode we talk about our biggest lessons from our first year of podcasting and some of the behind the scenes details that go into creating the podcast. As we begin our second year, we also would welcome any feedback on things we can do to improve the podcast and the types of episodes that listeners find the most useful. If you have any feedback, please send it to us at podcast@validea.com.

We want to thank everyone who took the time to listen to us in our first year. We really appreciate your support.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

There is a tendency for those of us who support quant models to talk about them as if they are these things that just run on autopilot over the long-term that are free from all the decision-making issues that plague us as human beings. That just isn’t the case, though.

There are many decisions that go into the development, optimization, and evolution of quant models that require human intervention and a thoughtful, nuanced approach.

In this episode, we discuss the human decisions that go into quant models and how to develop a thoughtful framework to make them.

JACK'S ARTICLE

When Quantitative Becomes Discretionary – Validea's Guru Investor Blog

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Value investing has struggled for over a decade now. Although no one will dispute that fact, there are significant disagreements about whether this is just another of the long periods of underperformance that have been common in the history of value or if something about the strategy has become broken.

In the first year of our podcast, we have talked to some of the smartest people we know in the investing world about this topic, including Jim O'Shaughnessy, Tobias Carlisle, Adam Butler, Partha Mohanram, Wes Gray, Vitaliy Katselnelson, and Kai Wu, and have received a diverse set of opinions.

In this episode, we bring together all of those insights in an effort to answer one question: Is Value Investing Dead?

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Warren Buffett is one of the greatest investors of all time. He has also been very generous in sharing the lessons he has learned over his career with all of us. There are many things all of us can and should learn from Buffett.

But despite that, there are also many lessons that investors should not learn from what Buffett does. Like all investors, many of the things Buffett does are the result of his own unique situation. The majority of investors also have substantially smaller portfolios than Buffett and much shorter time frames. In this episode, we look at some lessons that investors should not learn from Warren Buffett.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Benjamin Graham is considered by many to be the father of value investing. Not only did Graham produce an exceptional track record during his lifetime, but he also counts some of the most successful value investors of all time among his disciples, including Warren Buffett.

But despite the long-term success of the deep value investing style popularized by Graham, many argue that things have changed and that value investors need to evolve to keep up with the times.

In this episode, we take a deep dive into the principles of Graham and the criteria of our quantitative strategy based on him, and debate whether his strategy is still relevant today.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Our economy is changing. The largest, most successful companies in the world no longer require substantial tangible assets to operate their businesses. The businesses that are disrupting our world and wielding monopolistic power aren't powered by plants and factories. Instead their value lies in things like brands and technology and the value of their networks.

This new world has challenged many traditional beliefs about investing. Everything from how we define value to how we look at growth has changed. More traditional methods are now being supplemented by things like alternative data and machine learning.

In this episode, we speak to Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital, who has written some of the best research we have seen on these topics.

We discuss:

The forces causing disruption in our economy and how to measure its impact
How to measure intangible assets using both traditional fundamentals and more advanced metrics
The rise of monopolies and the implications for investors
The impact of all of this for investors who use traditional fundamental strategies.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SPARKLINE CAPITAL

https://www.sparklinecapital.com/

FOLLOW KAI ON TWITTER

https://twitter.com/ckaiwu

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

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https://twitter.com/practicalquant

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https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

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https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

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https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

There is little disagreement among market observers that passive investing is growing. There is also little dispute that the trend is likely to continue as a result of the rise of ETFs, investors’ focus on fees, the inconsistency of active manager outperformance, and numerous other factors. That is where the agreement ends, though. There are substantial disagreements as to if there has been an impact on the pricing of securities within the market, and if so, what that impact is.

There are two ways that some argue that the rise of passive investing is influencing the market. The first is that it has been a significant source of fuel behind the market and has caused it to go up more than it otherwise would have. The second is that it is impacting the relative pricing of stocks within the market and is benefitting the largest stocks that have the highest weights in market cap weighted indexes relative to all other stocks.

In this episode, we discuss both of these and try to summarize the arguments both for and against the conclusion that passive investing is distorting the market.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Many investors have come to accept the fact that the major factors like value and momentum will produce excess returns over the long-term. But what if the fact that these factors have become widely known and have strong evidence to support them has reduced or eliminated their effectiveness? In this episode, we discuss this idea with Adam Butler of Resolve Asset Management. Adam is one of the deepest thinkers that we know in the investing world. He is also a prolific writer and host of the popular Gestalt University podcast. We discuss: - The life cycle of investment factors and why the factors that have the strongest evidence to support them may be the most vulnerable to having their premiums reduced or eliminated - The framework for judging whether a factor has lost its effectiveness - How to construct an equity portfolio in a world where it is difficult to determine which factors will work going forward - The benefits of risk parity and why more investors don't use it. We hope you enjoy the discussion.

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT RESOLVE ASSET MANAGEMENT

https://investresolve.com/

FOLLOW THEIR PODCAST

https://investresolve.com/podcasts/

FOLLOW ADAM ON TWITTER

https://twitter.com/gestaltu

ABOUT THE PODCAST Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter:

https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter:

https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

We all have our political views. We all have a series of policies that we think would make the world a better place than it is today. And in the polarized world we are in today, most people are more entrenched in these views than they ever have been.

No matter what you think about politics, though, it is important to understand that it is likely best to separate those views from what you do with your investment portfolio.

In this episode, we look at the historical data to explain why which party controls the White House is not likely predictive of how the market will perform.

We discuss:

The historical performance of the market under Democratic and Republican administrations
The importance of sample size when judging historical returns
The role of the lag in the impact of economic policies
Why the policies of both parties going forward may be more similar than you think

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

All of us can fall into the trap of thinking that a certain outcome in investing is obvious. Whether it be the future direction of the market, which asset classes will perform best going forward, or the types of stocks that will lead the way, it is easy to think that certain outcomes are a virtual certainty. This can be particularly true during a period like the one we are in where opinions are polarized. But it is important to understand that the market's collective wisdom is usually smarter than all of us and what we think is obvious often is not.

In this episode, we discuss some of the things that may seem obvious in the current market, and why they might be wrong.

We discuss:

The challenges of deviating from the market consensus
The impact of the Coronavirus on the market
Why bonds may still belong in investor portfolios despite their low yields
the importance of avoiding binary decisions

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

The volume of financial content that is produced these days can be completely overwhelming. Filtering through it to find the best articles is a task that most investors just don't have the time to complete.

Thankfully, they don't have to.

Tadas Viskanta helped solve this problem when he launched Abnormal Returns over 15 years ago. Every day, Tadas identifies the best financial content and distills it down to a condensed series of links. And he does it for free. Tadas is also the Director of Investor Education at Ritholtz Wealth Management.

In this episode, we discuss:

the process Tadas uses to filter the vast amount of financial content that is out there
his views on audio and video and the future of content
the role of content in communicating with current and prospective clients
the importance of authenticity

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABNORMAL RETURNS

https://abnormalreturns.com/

FOLLOW TADAS ON TWITTER

https://twitter.com/abnormalreturns

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Growth investing has seemed easy in the past decade. Growth stocks have easily outpaced both value stocks and the market, which has led to great performance for many growth strategies. But it likely won't always be this easy. Over the long-term, growth stocks as a whole have trailed the market, and successful growth investors have had to identify a small group of stocks that perform well in a universe that typically does not.

In this episode, we look at some of the realities of growth investing.

We discuss:

Why growth investing is about finding diamonds in the rough
How difficult it can be to hold the great growth stocks through the severe ups and downs they typically experience
Why investors desire to find the next great growth stock can lead to overvaluation within the space

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Investing in today's world requires an ability to understand multiple disciplines. In addition to understanding markets and having the ability to put current events in a long-term context, it also requires an understanding of economics. And with governments playing an increasing role in markets, it requires an ability to understand public policy and interpret its impact. Nir Kaissar is unique in his ability to offer insights into each of these areas. He is the founder of Unison Advisors and a regular columnist for Bloomberg.

In this interview, we discuss each of these areas, and the unprecedented times all of us are currently living through.

We discuss:

The COVID-19 crisis and the government response to it and what they mean for investors
Why the struggles of value investing in the past decade aren't enough to tell you it is dead
Whether bonds still make sense for investors with yields near all time lows
The role of market valuation in analyzing future returns
Whether passive investing is distorting the market

We hope you enjoy the discussion

NIR'S BLOOMBERG ARTICLES

https://www.bloomberg.com/authors/ASlX9_7a5l8/nir-kaissar

FOLLOW NIR ON TWITTER

https://twitter.com/nirkaissar

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

It has been said that the most dangerous words in investing are "this time is different". But sometimes a confluence of factors come together to significantly change the character of the market. In the best research paper we have read this year, Corey Hoffstein argues this is one of those times. In this interview, we go through all the details of Corey's argument and how they fit together to form a very compelling argument that this time might in fact be different.

We discuss:

Why the "moneyness" of markets has greatly increased the interdependence between the stock market and the economy
Why the rise of divergent investment strategies has increased market volatility
The role of the Federal Reserve policy in driving investors up the risk curve
How passive investing has impacted the market overall and the relative pricing of stocks within it
The role of options dealers and how options buying and selling can exacerbate volatility

COREY'S BLOG

https://blog.thinknewfound.com/

FOLLOW COREY ON TWITTER

https://twitter.com/choffstein

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Active management deserves all the criticism it gets. After all, over 80% of equity managers underperform their benchmarks over the long-term and active managers charge vastly higher fees compared to passive indices.

But active management also gets a bad rap. There are many active strategies that perform very well over time, and justify the fees they charge.

How can both of these conflicting statements simultaneously be true? The answer lies of the definition of the term “active management” and the fact that many strategies that investors consider passive also have significant active components.

In this episode we talk about the various types of active management and the pros and cons of each.

We discuss:

Why the S&P 500 is an active portfolio
The various approaches to fundamental indexing
The one type of active management that should be avoided at all costs
The pros and cons of factor investing
Whether the days of the star fund manager are over

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

John Rekenthaler is Vice President of Research for Morningstar, the author of the Rekenthaler Report column, and a leading expert on the mutual fund industry. John has been with Morningstar almost since the beginning and has witnessed the evolution of the mutual fund and investing industries first hand. In this interview, we draw on John's extensive experience to cover a variety of topics related to the fund industry and investing in general.

We discuss:

the key attributes to look at when analyzing funds
the pros and cons of passive investing
whether star fund managers are a thing of the past
judging fund managers by the company they keep
the dangers of using macro data to time the market
his biggest lessons from Morningstar founder Joe Mansueto

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

In this bonus episode, we we discuss a presentation Justin recently gave to Fidelity customers about some of the major narratives shaping the current market. The word "unprecedented" tends to be overused in investing, but 2020 has certainly seen many occurrences that many investors have never seen before, and may not again.

We talk about some of these things and what they mean for investors going forward.

We discuss:

Why 2020 has turned the factors that have worked over the long-term in investing upside down
How the current dominance of large-cap stocks fits in a historical context
The historic pace of both the decline and recovery we saw this year
Whether you can read anything into the large amount of cash Warren Buffett is holding
The implications of the massive government stimulus
The future outlook for the newly minted retail traders who came into the market in the wake of the Coronavirus crisis.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

We are currently in one of the most difficult economic environments many of us will see if our lifetimes. Even though the unemployment rate has fallen from its high of 15% to a level below 10%, it still exceeds the peak from the 2008 crisis, which itself was one of the deepest recessions ever. Small businesses and entire industries, like air travel, cruise lines and hotels are struggling mightily as the various degrees of lockdowns we have experienced in recent months have taken a huge toll. But despite all of that, the stock market currently sits at all time highs.

In this episode, we look at the reasons for this disconnect.

We discuss:

Why it is not uncommon for the stock market to become disconnected from the economy
Why the businesses we see struggling in our everyday lives aren't the most important ones to the market
The implications of unprecedented levels of government stimulus
Why psychology can often explain short-term market moves better than fundamentals

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Technology has allowed all of us to personalize many aspects of our lives. Rather than accept products tailored to a wide range of people, we are now able to customize products we use based on our specific needs and preferences.

But in the world of investing, most investors continue to invest in prepackaged indexes like the S&P 500 that are the same for everyone. That may be about to change, though.

The combination of new technology, the elimination of brokerage commissions, and the ability of investors to purchase partial shares of individual securities have come together to create a product that allows investors to build indexes that meet their individual preferences.

That product is direct indexing.

In this episode we talk about the pros and cons of direct indexing and the details of how it works.

We discuss:

the potential tax benefits of owning the individual stocks within an index instead of an index fund
the double edged sword of personalization
the behind the scenes details that are important to understand when looking at direct indexing strategies

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Trading volumes at online brokers have skyrocketed since the Coronavirus crisis began. If there is one lesson these newly minted traders have learned so far, it is that the market does nothing but go up. But more seasoned investors know that the market, and these traders, will eventually fall upon tough times. In this episode, we discuss some investing lessons that these new traders could learn from legendary investor Peter Lynch.

We discuss:

The importance of understanding the businesses behind stocks you invest in
How to distinguish luck from skill
Why investors should avoid "Cutting Their Flowers and Watering Their Weeds"
Why making mistakes early in your investing career can be a good thing

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

In this episode we are joined by Professor Partha Mohanram. Professor Mohanram is the John H. Watson Chair in Value Investing at the Rotman School at the University of Toronto. His paper "Separating Winners from Losers among Low Book-to-Market Stocks using Financial Statement Analysis" is also the basis for one of the quantitative models we run on Validea. In this interview, we cover a wide range of topics based on Professor Mohanram's research, including:

The criteria of his G Score strategy
Whether accounting standards should change to account for intangible assets
The balance between quality and value in portfolio construction
Separating winners from losers in Financial stocks
Whether investors can profit from information on Twitter

FOLLOW PROFESSOR MOHANRAM ON TWITTER

https://twitter.com/pmohanram

PROFFESSOR MOHANRAM'S RESEARCH

https://www.rotman.utoronto.ca/FacultyAndResearch/Faculty/FacultyBios/Mohanram

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK Twitter:

https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter:

https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Value investors have fallen on difficult times in the most recent decade. Value's extended underperformance has led many to question whether the strategy still works or if it is broken in some fundamental way. In this episode, we look at these arguments and discuss why we still believe in value.

We discuss:

Whether value is cheap on a relative and absolute basis
If the risk- and behavioral-based arguments for value still hold
Why history gives us some reason for optimism
Why underperfomance would not be what we would expect if value is truly dead

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

In this episode, we are joined by Lawrence Cunningham. He is a professor at George Washington University and one of the world's leading experts on Warren Buffett. He is also the author of many excellent investing books including "Dear Shareholder", "The Essays of Warren Buffett", "Quality Investing", and the upcoming "Quality Shareholders: How the Best Managers Attract and Keep Them".

We discuss a wide range of topics, including:

the key traits that have led to Warren Buffett's long-term success
the characteristics of a quality shareholder and what companies can do to attract and keep them
the impact of the rise of passive investing on corporate governance
the most important attributes that can help to identify quality companies and whether they can be quantified.

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

FOLLOW PROFESSOR CUNNINGHAM ON TWITTER

https://twitter.com/cunninghamprof

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK Twitter:

https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter:

https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Valuing a company (or the market in general) typically involves looking at its price and judging that price relative to its current and projected future fundamentals. But some have argued that this process has become broken in the most recent decade and other factors have become more important than actual results. In this episode, we talk about some of these factors, how they have impacted the market, and what they might mean for the future.

We discuss:

How Fed policy has impacted the market in general and the relative valuations of value and growth
Why narratives can sometimes be more important than fundamentals
Whether passive fund flows are distorting the market

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK Twitter:

https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter:

https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Buying expensive stocks has historically been a terrible investing strategy. On average, expensive stocks significantly underperform the market as a whole over time. But despite the poor performance of the group, the absolute best performing individual stocks typically come from within this universe. The difficult part is trying to identify them in advance. In this episode, we look at a quantitative growth strategy developed by Partha Mohanram, a professor at the University of Toronto, and how it seeks to find diamonds in the rough among growth stocks.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK Twitter:

https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter:

https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

The process of learning from your mistakes is an important part of improving yourself over time both as an investor and as a person. But it requires that you learn the right lessons and don’t draw the wrong conclusions from your failures. And sometimes that is easier said than done. In this episode, we talk about some ways that learning from your mistakes can be counterproductive.

We discuss:

Why a significant failure early in our careers led us to overcompensate later on
Why learning the right lesson at the wrong time can be dangerous
The importance of judging process and not outcome when learning from your mistakes

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK Twitter:

https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter:

https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

In this episode we are joined by Vitaliy Katsenelson. Vitaliy is the author of the popular Contrarian Edge blog and the CEO of investment firm IMA.

As quantitative investors, we often find we learn the most from investors who use very different approaches than we do. As a discretionary value investor and long-term student of value investing, Vitaliy provides us with an alternate take on value and the advantages a discretionary approach can offer in uncertain times.

We discuss:

How COVID-19 has changed the game of value investing
Why buying great companies sometimes isn't a great investing strategy
The importance of developing a process to challenge your own beliefs

VITALIY'S BLOG

https://contrarianedge.com/

FOLLOW VITALIY ON TWITTER

https://twitter.com/vitaliyk

VITALIY'S FIRM

https://imausa.com/

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK Twitter:

https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter:

https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

The Price/Book ratio has probably been the most important valuation ratio of the past century. If you look at the academic research that supports value investing, you won’t find any other ratio that is referenced more often. There is also no ratio that is used more by systematic value funds.

But the rise on intangible assets and other factors have led many to question whether the ratio has value any more.

In this episode, we look at the arguments for and against the Price/Book and whether it should still have a place in value portfolios.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK Twitter:

https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter:

https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

In this episode, we are going to try something a little different. Our goal at Validea is to capture quantitative strategies that work over the long-term. To do that, we go through books and academic papers to find factor-based models with results to back them up. We are going to periodically do some episodes for the podcast where we do a deep dive into these strategies and look at the factors behind them. In the first episode, we will take a detailed look at our strategy based on Warren Buffett, which was extracted from the book Buffettology. But before we look at the strategy's criteria in detail, we start with a more basic question: Can Warren Buffett be quantified?

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK Twitter:

https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter:

https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

We all have a tendency to believe that the way we invest is the best way. As quantitative investors, we can sometimes feel that there is no reason anyone should ever use a discretionary strategy. But like most issues in investing, there are two sides to this argument. In this episode, we talk about the benefits of both quantitative and discretionary investing.

We discuss:

Why quantitative strategies can limit the impact of emotion and biases
Why discretionary strategies can work better in situations where a more detailed analysis is needed
How both strategies contain some elements of the other
Why the ultimate answer may lie in the hands of the end investor

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

https://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

In this week's episode we are privileged to be joined by Jim O'Shaughnessy. Jim is a pioneer in quantitative investing and the founder of O'Shaughnessy Asset Management. He is also the author of the best selling book What Works on Wall Street, which is now on its 4th edition and is considered by many to be the definitive guide to factor-based investing.

In this discussion, we get Jim's takes on a wide range of topics both in and outside the investing world.

We discuss:

the recent struggles of value investing and what it means for the future
the process of updating an investment strategy over time while still adhering to your core principles
the role that investor behavior should play in the construction of investment strategies
the advice Jim would give to new parents based on his experience raising 3 children
the long-term changes that the current COVID-19 crisis might have on the way people work in the investment industry

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

MORE INFO ON O'SHAUGHNESSY ASSET MANAGEMENT

https://osam.com

FOLLOW JIM ON TWITTER

https://twitter.com/jposhaughnessy

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

We all have our beliefs about the way that things should work in investing. When the market gets overvalued, we think it should go down. When value stocks struggle for a long period of time, we think they should outperform. When central banks or governments implement policies we don't agree with, we think they will inevitably end in disaster. But that focus on the way we think things should be can sometimes lead us to miss the reality of what is. In this episode, we talk about the balance between having conviction in the way things should work out and recognizing the way they are actually working out.

We discuss:

The reasons the market continues to rally despite one of the worst economic situations we will likely see in our lifetimes
The dangers of allowing your beliefs regarding Federal Reserve policy to filter into your investment strategy.
Why momentum can be the great equalizer in separating what is from what should be

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Investing factors that work over time typically do so for one of two reasons: they either produce an excess return by taking on additional risk or they benefit from the tendency of investors to systematically misprice certain types of securities. Factors like value and momentum are easy to explain using this framework, but the outperformance of quality and low volatility offers more of a challenge. In this episode, we take an in depth look at these two factors. We discuss: - the different ways to define each factor and the common metrics used. - the explanations that explain the excess returns of both quality and low volatility - the benefits each factor can provide when combined with the other major investing factors ABOUT THE PODCAST Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors. SEE LATEST EPISODES https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA https://www.validea.com FOLLOW OUR BLOG http://blog.validea.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Wes Gray is the founder of Alpha Architect, the author of Quantitative Value and Quantitative Momentum, and an expert in systematic investing. In this interview, we discuss the recent struggles of value investing and how the current period fits into a long-term context. We also talk about the nuts and bolts of building a value strategy, including the pros and cons of value composites and the role of quality in a value portfolio. We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT ALPHA ARCHITECT

https://alphaarchitect.com/

FOLLOW WES ON TWITTER

https://twitter.com/alphaarchitect

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

http://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Momentum investing is difficult to understand for many investors. While a concept like value that involves trying to buy stocks at a discount to what they are worth resonates with many, the idea of betting that stocks that have already gone up will go up more can be much more difficult to understand. In this episode, we take an in depth look at momentum investing. We discuss why momentum works, the different types of momentum, and some of the drawbacks of a momentum based approach. We also talk about some additional variables that can potentially enhance a momentum approach like fundamental momentum and momentum consistency.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

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We are all trained to buy low and sell high, and it is tempting to conclude that we can do the same thing with factors. But the research suggests that factor timing strategies are extremely difficult to implement in practice. In this episode, we discuss the pros and cons of factor timing and look at some of the approaches that investors can use to time factors.

We discuss:

Why most investors should avoid attempting to time factors
The common factor timing approaches, including value, momentum, macroeconomic and dispersion
Why the ability to control your emotions plays a major role in the ability to successfully time factors

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

http://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

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The basic theory of multi-factor investing is pretty simple. It has been widely proven that factors like value and momentum can outperform the market over long periods of time. But no reward comes without risk. In this case, the risk is the significant periods of underperformance that the factors can endure. That is where multi-factor investing comes in. It offers investors an opportunity to blend factors together to reduce risk and smooth out those bad periods.

But building a multi-factor investment strategy can be much more difficult than it seems and requires a series of decisions that can have a significant impact on the end result. In this episode, we look at multi-factor investing and the important factors to keep in mind when building a multi-factor portfolio.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

http://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

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The process of using past fundamentals to try to predict future prices has been in place for a very long time, and there is substantial academic evidence to support it. One of the major challenges of it; however, is what happens when we are confronted with breaking points that are so large that a company’s past results prior to it occurring might tell us very little about what it will look like after. The current situation with COVID-19 might be the most significant situation of this type that any of us will experience in our investing lifetimes.

In this episode, we look at the impact of COVID-19 on value investing and offer some practical tips for building a value portfolio during a time like this.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

http://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

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LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

In this week's episode we shift gears a little from our usual investing focus. We wanted to spend some time talking about the current COVID-19 crisis and its impact on all of us as people. To do that, we brought in an expert of human psychology and behavioral finance, Dr. Daniel Crosby. Daniel is the author of the Behavioral Investor and the Chief Behavioral Officer at Brinker Capital.

In the interview, we discuss what we are going through as a society with the COVID-19 crisis, how we can all learn to better cope with the stress it brings, and the impact it will have on our behavior in the future. We also talk about its impact on us as investors and discuss Daniel's process to help investors avoid making bad decisions during times like these. We hope you enjoy the discussion.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

http://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

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LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Whenever we are confronted with a bear market, we all want to figure out how it will play out. We want to know how big the decline will be. We want to know when it will end. We want to know what stocks we should buy to limit losses during it and to outperform the market after it. To answer these questions, our minds tend to point us to the simplest solution we can find. That solution is often to find the bear market in history that was most comparable to this one, and to assume that what happened then will also happen now. But there is a major flaw in that argument: no two bear markets are alike.

In this week's episode, we discuss the dangers of trying to compare the current bear market to past declines, and compare and contrast some historical bear markets with what is going on now.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

http://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

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LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Whenever any of us analyze the decisions we make in investing, there is always a tendency to think that what we end up knowing in retrospect was obvious at the time. There is a tendency to believe that decisions that we could have made were easier than they actually were. But that’s just not the way things work, especially when we are faced with high stress situations and very uncertain outcomes, which is the situation we all face today.

In this episode, we discuss the challenge of analyzing the current market environment and how what might seem obvious in retrospect is far from it today.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

http://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

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LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

In this week’s Excess Returns, we are trying something new. In addition to our regular episodes, we have decided to periodically talk to some of the people we respect most in the investment community to get their insights on the issues facing investors today. For our first conversation, we talk to our friend Tobias Carlisle about value investing. Toby is probably the smartest value investor we know. He is the author of four books on value, including the Acquirer’s Multiple. He is also the founder of Acquirer’s Funds. In the conversation, we talk about the things that led to his interest in value investing and try to put the current struggles of value into context. We hope you enjoy the conversation.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

http://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Confirmation bias is one of the most damaging biases in investing. All of us want to be right. We all want to think that opinions that disagree with ours don’t have sensible arguments to support them. So we gravitate toward people who agree with ours. Whether it be in our personal relationships, or our virtual ones through things like social media, we all unconsciously want to seek out validation that proves that what we thought all along is correct. But during times like these that can be a major problem. In this episode, we discuss some of our current beliefs, and why they might be wrong.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

http://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

There are many ways to manage risk in a portfolio. Traditional methods like blending stocks with bonds will work for most investors, but more creative methods can also make sense in some cases. One thing all risk management techniques have in common though, is that they come with trade offs. In this episode we look at some popular risk management approaches, and some lesser known ones, and examine the pros and cons of each. In addition to a traditional blended stock and bond approach, we also discuss the Permanent Portfolio, and more advanced quantitative approaches like Trend Following, Protective Asset Allocation and Generalized Protective Momentum.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

http://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

With the market in the midst of a significant decline and uncertainty reaching levels we haven't seen in many years, we have received many questions about what is going on, and where we go from here. So we decided to do a Q&A episode to do our best to answer some of these questions. In this bonus episode, we talk about why the market has fallen so quickly, whether stocks are cheap after the recent decline, and whether can can rely on past fundamental data to pick stocks in a time like this. We hope you enjoy this bonus episode. If you have any questions you would like answered in future episodes, please email them to podcast@validea.com.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

http://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

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LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

The argument that investors should stay the course during market declines is an easy one to make. It also in most cases is the correct one, since figuring out when to get out of the market, and when to get back in, is very difficult for most investors to do. Despite the strength of the stay the course argument, those of us who make it can sometimes fail to deliver it with the proper recognition of the pain that most investors feel during market declines. In this episode, we talk about some important lessons to keep in mind during market panics and some strategies investors can use to manage them.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

http://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

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LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

The long-term evidence to support factor investing is compelling. Academic work has shown that factors like value and momentum have produced an excess return relative to the market over time. But what occurred in the most recent decade was in many ways the opposite of what has happened over the long-term. Almost anything an investor did to get away from buying large growth companies over that period was a detraction from returns. In this episode, we try to put the struggles of factor investing in context and talk about some lessons we can learn from this difficult decade.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

http://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

The recent market sell off related to the Coronavirus has many investors worried. And with good reason. When panics like this set in, we all tend to focus on worst case scenarios and want to take action in response. But the process of analyzing headlines and figuring out how they will impact the market is challenging for even the most sophisticated investors. In this week's episode, we look at the dangers of investing based on headlines and why most investors are probably better off avoiding it.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

http://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

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LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

To say that the track record of market timers in general is dismal would be an understatement. There are so many factors that impact market returns that getting them all right is next to impossible. And even if you do, figuring out what is and is not already priced in can be an equally fruitless exercise. Despite the fact that forecasters have consistently failed to predict market turns, there is an option that can help to limit losses in major downturns and can be beneficial for some investors. Trend following has a long-term track record of both limiting major losses and reducing volatility. But like anything in investing, it comes with some trade offs. In this episode, we discuss why market timing is so difficult and take a detailed look at the pros and cons of trend following.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

http://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

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LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Back testing is one of the most misused tools in investment management. Almost every back test outperforms the market, but those same strategies often struggle when run with actual money. In this episode, we discuss the reasons why back tested results often don't translate into the real world and talk about some things to look out for when evaluating back test results.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

http://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

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LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

In this week's episode, we talk about the biggest lessons from the first year of our Five Questions interview series. Our Five Questions series features in depth interviews with leaders in the investing industry. We discuss the five most important lessons we learned from our interviews with Jim O'Shaughnessy, Corey Hoffstein, Michael Mauboussin, Ben Hunt and Wes Gray.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

http://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

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LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Picking the right value metric can be one of the biggest challenges of quantitative value investing. Although the Price/Book is the most widely used value metric, its struggles in recent years and valid concerns that have been raised about its viability in a world dominated by intangible assets have led many to question whether it still works. But the other widely used value metrics also have their own problems. In this week's episode, we discuss the benefits of using a value composite and how it can enhance the risk/return profile of a value strategy.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

http://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

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LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

We have just completed market prediction season. Its the time of year where there are countless forecasts about what the economy will do in the new year. Its when experts tell you what interest rates will do for the year. And most of all, its when you see a variety of predictions for where the S&P 500 is heading this year. The experts making these predictions even do you the favor of giving you exact price targets so you know exactly what will happen. But there will be one major problem with almost all of these predictions: they will be wrong. In this week's episode, we discuss why market forecasting is so difficult and highlight some of the tricks that market forecasters use to make their predictions seem better in retrospect than they actually were.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

http://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

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LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

As difficult as it is to figure out the right stocks to buy, determining when to sell can be even more challenging. In this episode, we look at the important factors to consider when deciding when to sell and develop a systematic sell framework that can be used for both quantitative and traditional investors.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

http://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

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LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

After we finished recording this week's episode on the case against value stocks, we kept the recorder rolling and we have included that audio in this short bonus episode. We discuss the challenges of figuring out whether you have overcome your confirmation bias, how long it would take to officially say value investing is dead, and whether we remain believers in value after the exercise of challenging our belief in it. We hope you enjoy this bonus audio.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

http://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Confirmation bias is one of the biggest problems in investing. We all have a set of core beliefs, and we tend to surround ourselves with people who also believe them and focus on information that validates them. That can be dangerous, though, because it can blind you to valid arguments that contradict your own. In this episode, we challenge our belief in value investing and discuss some of the reasons why we could be wrong.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

http://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

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Many value stocks are cheap because they deserve to be. Some of them no longer have sustainable businesses, and as a result their current discounted multiple will look really expensive relative to where their business is headed. These types of stocks are often referred to as “value traps” and value investors do everything they can to avoid them. In this episode, we talk about value traps, why they are impossible to avoid completely, and some rules that can help minimize them.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

http://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

In this episode, we discuss Justin's experience participating on the Alpha Architect team in last year's March for the Fallen. and how some of the lessons he learned from it can be applied to investing. The March for the Fallen is an event hosted by the Pennsylvania Army National Guard Training Center at Fort Indiantown Gap to honor the memory of all that have fallen in the defense of our nation.

For more information on the March for the Fallen, click here.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

http://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

Factor strategies have grown exponentially in the past decade. Almost every major asset manager now offers their variation of things like value, momentum, quality, and low volatility. But to use them properly, it is important to understand what they can and can't do. In this week's episode, we discuss the common misconceptions about factor strategies and what they can deliver for investors.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

http://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

The market has always been tough to beat, but the ability to investors to gain inexpensive exposure to factors like value and momentum has made the job of active managers even harder. In this week's episode, we talk about why the pursuit of alpha has become more difficult over time.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

http://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau

There is a tendency to believe that all value investing strategies are similar. But beneath the surface, many value approaches couldn’t be any more different. These differences can lead to substantially different outcomes in both the long- and short-term. In this episode, we discuss the many decisions that go into building a value portfolio and how they impact the results it delivers.

ABOUT THE PODCAST

Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand (@practicalquant) and Justin Carbonneau (@jjcarbonneau), partners at Validea. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing, multi-factor investing, trend following, market valuation and more with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.

SEE LATEST EPISODES

https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA

https://www.validea.com

FOLLOW OUR BLOG

http://blog.validea.com

FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL

https://www.valideacapital.com

FOLLOW JACK

Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094

FOLLOW JUSTIN

Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau