Heritage Financial Advisory Group: Recent Episodes
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Join Mike Desepoli as he discusses the markets and the economy for the week ending May 5th, 2023.
Welcome to the Black Friday Edition of the Heritage Market Pulse! If you were expecting a sleepy Friday, the stock market has other plans for you.
Today all across the US economy businesses will slash their prices in hopes of attracting new customers and more sales. In keeping with the theme, we are seeing prices slashed all across the stock market today as well. What's quite ironic, the stock market is the only place where things go on sale and no one wants to buy anything.
We are seeing a sharp declines across the board today, and the main culprit is the emergence of a new Covid variant found in South Africa. It's important to stress that very little is known at this point about this latest strain, including whether it can evade vaccines or how severe it is relative to other mutations....but that's not stopping the media machine from spinning this up into a full blown panic. What's exacerbating the moves in the markets is the fact that today is a holiday shortened trading session, and trading volumes are extremely light compared to normal days. Historically speaking as we look back over the past 18 months, selling into these sharp declines created by the emergence of a new variant has been the wrong move in the past and we expect it to be the wrong move this time again. Viruses mutate, that's what they have always done and that's what they will continue to do.
There is a silver lining to the sell-off today, as oil prices and interest rates have plummeted on the news. If you've been following along with us, you know that interest rates and oil prices have been a concern of the market lately, with the concern being that the Federal Reserve was going to be forced to raise interest rates to stomp out inflationary pressures. That narrative should be put to bed for a while, which will benefit growth investments. Join Mike Desepoli as he lays out all the things you need to know.
Welcome to the Heritage Market Pulse for Friday November 19th! The S&P 500 and Nasdaq edged higher to close, but the Dow took a hit and closed just under for the day. Investors are still digesting the combination of strong earnings, rising prices, labor shortages, inflation, and the future of the post-Covid economy. US jobless claims are edging down, with 268K last week vs. 269K a week earlier. Claims are still at the lowest level since the beginning of the pandemic. More than 90% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q3 results, with 80%+ beating analyst expectations. Investors will keep an eye on Biden's Fed Chair pick, which is expected to unveil by the weekend.
Welcome to the Heritage Market Minute for Monday October 11th! Markets are starting the week lower as the bond market is closed for Columbus Day. It's a busy week for the markets as earning season kicks off later this week, starting with the big banks. Earnings are always a critical part of our evaluation process as corporate profits are one of the main drivers of equity markets. Markets are just a few days away from entering the best 7 month stretch of the year and hopefully breaking away from some of the weak seasonality we have seen as of late. Join Mike Desepoli as he breaks down the action the team is watching.
Welcome to the Heritage Market Minute for Monday October 4th! Markets have been ugly as of late, so we are taking some extra time this week to discuss market corrections and the role they play in extending the longevity of a bull market. Anytime the markets drop, investors first reaction is to ask "what's wrong with the market?", but it is important to remember that market corrections are a feature of the market...…not a malfunction in the market. Join Mike Desepoli as he shares our thoughts and reinforces our view that this market heads higher from here.
Welcome to the Heritage Market Minute for Monday September 27th, 2021. Markets are starting the week off on a mixed note as the Dow Jones is higher and the Nasdaq is lower in Monday's session. Concerns about rising treasury yields have the market feeling uneasy, but our advisors think the market is mis-reading the fed statement from last week by anticipating any sudden changes to policy. With only a few days left in September, investors will be looking forward to the 4th quarter and more favorable seasonal trends in the market.
Welcome to the Heritage Market Minute for Monday September 20th! Markets are starting the week sharply lower as concerns about China's real estate contagion grip global markets. Couple that with the fact that Congress is locked in a heated debate over the approaching debt ceiling and you have a recipe for a sell off. Join Mike Desepoli as he discusses the action and lays out the game plan for week ahead.
Welcome to the Heritage Market Minute for Monday September 13th! Markets look to shrug off a two week losing streak and build momentum into the end of the 3rd quarter. There's been a repeating pattern of higher opens and lower closes in the market the last two week, a sign of a very anxious market. Even though markets sit just a few percentage points away from all time highs, investor sentiment remains very uneasy. Join Mike Desepoli as he discusses this and more in the Heritage Market Minute.
Welcome to the Heritage Market Minute for Tuesday September 7th! Markets are kicking off the holiday shortened trading week in mixed fashion, with the Nasdaq higher and the Dow Jones lower on the day. The disappointing jobs report from Friday continues to hang over market, although it's not all bad news. Join Mike Desepoli as he discusses what the team is keeping an eye on this week.
Welcome to the Heritage Market Pulse for Friday September 3rd! It's the last trading day before Labor Day weekend and the markets are relatively flat in a very subdued session. The big news we discuss today is the monthly jobs report covering the labor markets for August, as the actual number of jobs created came in well below economist expectations. This likely puts the Federal Reserve policy on hold for now, as they will await further progress in the jobs market before making any meaningful changes. Join Mike Desepoli as he discusses the news and wraps up this weeks activity in the markets. Have a Happy Labor Day!
Welcome to the Heritage Market Minute for Monday August 30th! Markets are building on their gains from last week after the Fed announced they would leave monetary policy unchanged for the time being. We will get a glimpse into the labor market recovery later this week with the big jobs report this coming Friday. Join Mike Desepoli as he discusses what to watch for in this week's market minute. Have a great Monday.
Welcome to the Heritage Market Minute for Monday August 23rd! Markets are sharply higher to start the week, building on top of Friday's robust gains. Hurricane Henri turned into Tropical Storm Henri and left the East coast largely unscathed this weekend, and for that there is much to be thankful for. Join Mike Desepoli as he discusses some key market events unfolding this week, as we move towards to end of the seasonally weak month of August.
The pictures all over the news were disheartening this weekend with the Taliban increasingly taking control of Afghanistan as city after city, including Kabul, surrenders to the militant group at a pace that foreign policy ‘experts’ could never have imagined. The Taliban has gained control of the country’s borders, so the only way out now is the Kabul airport which has been flooded with people seeking to exit, including the US embassy. What ultimately unfolds in the country is anyone’s guess at this point, but after nearly 20 years of involvement, it doesn’t look like the US has much to show for its efforts. From a market perspective, this weekend’s events are certainly having some impact this morning, and while there may be long-term macro implications down the road, these kind of immediate reactions are usually short-lived. Join Mike Desepoli as he discusses.
Welcome to the Heritage Market Pulse for Friday August 13th! Markets are flat on the day and coming off all time highs yet again yesterday. The big economic news of the day is the consumer sentiment survey monthly reading plunged to it's lowest level in 5 months as investors grow concerned that the delta variant may dent the global economic recovery. Join Mike Desepoli as he discusses, have a great weekend!
Welcome to the Heritage Market Minute for Monday August 9th! Markets kick off the week on a mixed note as the jobs report from last Friday came in well above expectations. Earnings season for Q2 is starting to wind down and the results have been strong. August tends to be a seasonally weak month, but that doesn't mean it's time to run for the exits. Join Mike Desepoli as he discusses.
Welcome to the Heritage Market Minute for Monday August 2nd! Markets are looking to start the month of August on a positive note, as the S&P500 looks to build on a streak of 6 consecutive months of gains. Earnings reports continue to roll in, and we will get an update on the labor markets later this week. The delta variant continues to dominate the news, but the markets seem unbothered for now. Join Mike Desepoli as he discusses.
The major markets returned to its record setting ways as the domestic markets closed higher once again last week. The Nasdaq, Dow Jones, S&P 500, and even the MSCI World Index saw new all-time highs by the end of the week. This left the Emerging Market index as the notable exception sitting in negative territory for the week and almost flat on the year.
The turnabout was surprising given how the week began. The S&P 500 closed with a loss over 1.5% on Monday. This marked the largest daily loss since May. However, the turnabout was quick with every other day last week closing higher.
The gains were fairly consistent as only Utilities and Energy closed lower. Communication Services led the pack with the gain of three and a quarter percent. This was followed closely by Consumer Discretionary and Information Technology.
But the gains were not limited to the equity markets. Bonds managed to add to the positive performance with gains in the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index. This takes the Year-to-Date return to a slight loss of three quarters of a percent.
In Economic News, Thursday’s Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose unexpectedly to 419,000 after testing a post-pandemic era low of 368,000 the prior week. Digging deeper, we see that according to the Department of Labor, the Total Continued Claimed Filed for UI Benefits in All Programs dropped by over 1.26 million as of July 3rd.
As the Wall Street Journal recently highlighted, a number of states have opted to cut benefits prior to the September federal expiration which have consequently seen drops in their respective state’s unemployment rolls.Yet, the timing of the end of the unemployment benefits has been seen as political. In both Indiana and Maryland, judges have issued temporary injunctions to block the termination of the additional unemployment benefits.
This week, the markets will be looking at a number of housing related reports early in the week followed by the midweek FOMC Meeting which will conclude with a Press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Finally, the week will end with the release of the Core Inflation report and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
Welcome to the Heritage Market Minute for Monday July 26th! Markets are higher to start the week as they shake off the Delta variant fears that plagued the market last week. This is a big week for earnings season as many large market components will report their 2nd quarter results. Tune in to here Mike's take on the action this week. Have a great day!
Welcome to the Heritage Market Outlook for the 3rd quarter of 2021. We hope this email finds you enjoying yourself this summer. As part of our process, we are back with another quarterly update to bring you up to speed on our view of the markets, the economy, strategic changes we are making, and our outlook for Q3.
There were many challenges for the market to overcome in the second quarter, but we still managed to post positive results. Join us as we lay out our expectations moving forward.
Check out Heritage Market Outlook below as we discuss the following:
- Recap of 2nd quarter returns.
- An update on the economy and review of important economic data.
- An update on the Fed and Monetary Policy
- Key Market Themes
- Update on our portfolio strategy.
Welcome to the Heritage Market Outlook for the 3rd quarter of 2021. We hope this email finds you enjoying yourself this summer. As part of our process, we are back with another quarterly update to bring you up to speed on our view of the markets, the economy, strategic changes we are making, and our outlook for Q3.
There were many challenges for the market to overcome in the second quarter, but we still managed to post positive results. Join us as we lay out our expectations moving forward.
Check out Heritage Market Outlook below as we discuss the following:
- Recap of 2nd quarter returns.
- An update on the economy and review of important economic data.
- An update on the Fed and Monetary Policy
- Key Market Themes
- Update on our portfolio strategy.
Welcome to the Heritage Market Minute for Monday July 19th! Markets are sharply lower as investors are spooked that the delta variant will throw off the economic recovery. A market correction is healthy and very normal after the big rally of the last 2 months, Mike discusses this and more in the market minute.
Welcome to the Heritage Market Minute for Monday July 12th! Markets kick off the week at all time highs after making fresh records in Friday's market session. Virgin Galactic completed a successful launch into space this weekend as the race for space tourism heats up. Earnings season for the 2nd quarter kicks off this week as the big banks will be the first to report. Investor sentiment continues to skew negative as many investors are fearful of the current rally in stocks. Tune in to hear what we think this all means for the market in the weeks and months ahead.
Welcome to the Heritage Market Minute for Tuesday July 6th! It's a shortened trading week but no shortage of market movers. This mornings service sector reading came in a little weak, but it's not time to sound the alarm just yet. Travel trends continue to pick up as Americans feel more comfortable getting back into the swing of things. Later this week, Richard Branson and Jeff Bezos (separately) will become the first civilians to travel into space as the race for private space travel heats up. Have a great day!
Welcome to the Heritage Market Pulse for Friday July 2nd! The big news of the day is the June jobs report which showed an increase of 850,000 jobs versus expectations of 706,000. Markets are closed on Monday in observance of 4th of July. Have a great weekend!
Welcome to the Heritage Market Minute for Tuesday June 29th! Markets are flat after hitting all time highs in Monday's session. It's a quiet news week in advance of the 4th of July as markets approach the end of the 2nd quarter. Join Mike as he discusses the market movers to watch this week.
Welcome to the Heritage Market Pulse for Friday June 25th! Markets are higher on the day and looking to cap their best week since March. A combination of solid economic data and a preliminary agreement between Republicans and Democrats on infrastructure spending has the markets feeling good heading into the weekend. Join Mike Desepoli as he discusses this and more.
Welcome to the Heritage Market Minute for Monday June 21st! Markets are surging higher to start the week, as the hangover from last week's Fed meeting is starting to wear off. The Fed made no significant changes in their policy stance, so what has the market so on edge? Mike Desepoli discusses in this weeks market minute.
Buy the rumor, sell the news is a market adage based on the belief that stock prices move in anticipation of rumors and rebound when profit taking occurs after the actual news is released. It’s a risky tactic of stock trading based on just rumors or moving events. The investor, who stands to make a nice profit on their stocks, then dumps positions as the news is announced. We break it down this week on Mike Talks Money.
The markets are mixed to start the week but all eyes will be on the Fed as they conclude their 2 day policy meeting Wednesday, with Chairman Jerome Powell scheduled to host a press conference at 230pm Wednesday. There is much anticipation around the Fed's policy stance as it has the impact to move markets. Mike Desepoli discusses this and more in this week's market minute.
At some point in your investing career, you’ve likely heard of a stock that’s gone on a ridiculous run or a certain part of town that has now become the trendiest in the area, and you’ve kicked yourself for not investing. We’ve all been there. However, we must realize that in investing as in life, capitalizing on every opportunity is simply impossible. Many times, we think about all the hypothetical returns we missed out on, which does nothing more for us than waste time. Worse, it creates this sense of FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) that may lead us to chase the next ever-elusive “hot” stock or investment trend with limited to disastrous results. We discuss this week in episode 3 of Mike Talks Money
Welcome to the Heritage Market Minute for Monday June 7th! Markets are flat to start the week as the major indexes hover just below all time highs. It's natural for markets to take a "pause" as they approach unchartered territory so join Mike Desepoli as he explains all that and more, and what to expect next. Have a great Monday.
Welcome to the Heritage Market Pulse for Friday June 4th! Markets are higher on the day and the week as the jobs report for the month of may showed the economy added 559,000 new jobs....short of expectations for 671,000. Inflation expectations have cooled off lately, as treasury yields have backed off. Have a great weekend!
Welcome to Episode 2 of Mike Talks Money. Today we are talking about meme stocks and short squeezes! No, it's not January and this time it isn't Gamestop.....but we take a look at the meteoric rise in AMC Movie Theater shares and what is driving the stock higher.
Welcome to the Heritage Market Minute for June 1st! Markets are higher to start the shortened trading week as we kick off the month of June. Consumer confidence in the economic recovery remains high, join Mike Desepoli as he discusses what it all means for the market this week.
Welcome to the Heritage Market Pulse for Friday May 28th! The markets look to wrap up a winning week, join Mike Desepoli as he breaks down the action.
Welcome to the first episode of Mike Talks Money, our new podcast series aimed at creating a generation of smarter investors. We will use this platform to teach you to use your money as a tool to increase your return on life. Join us weekly to sharpen your money game!
Welcome to the Heritage Market Minute for Monday May 24th! It's the last full trading week before the Memorial Day Holiday, and our team has a lot to discuss. Join Mike Desepoli as he breaks down the coming week in the markets.
Welcome to the Heritage Market Minute for May 17th! There was a great deal of market moving economic data released last week, with specific attention placed on the rise in the consumer price index. Mike Desepoli discusses this data and what it may mean about inflation in the months ahead.
Welcome to the Heritage Market Minute for Monday May 10th! It's another tug of war in the markets today, but the big focus is on the Colonial Pipeline cyber attack that happened over the weekend and the potential impact on fuel prices. Mike Desepoli discusses this and more, join us.
Welcome to the Heritage Market Minute for Monday May 3rd! With 1/3 of the year behind us there is still plenty to discuss, join Mike Desepoli for this week's key market movers.
The Major Markets ended mixed but mostly lower. Only Emerging Markets managed to end higher. However, all five indices closed less than half a percent higher or lower than the prior week.
For the S&P 500, the week was marked by back-and-forth trading as each day seemed to offset the prior day’s trading. Investors seemed largely unswayed by fresh all-time highs, overall earnings results, economic reports, or policy news.
1st Quarter Earnings results began to be released in earnest last week as 383 companies posted earnings. This week, another 901 companies will release their results with the week of May 3rd being the largest number of reports for the quarter.
On Thursday, the market did seem to take a pause upon the release of the Biden tax plan. As Reuters noted, the Biden Administration reportedly will be soon detailing a plan to increase the top marginal income tax rate from 37% to 39.6%. Furthermore, taxes on capital gains would also be increased to the 39.6% level, nearly doubling the current 20% rate for those making more than $1 million annually.
Moreover, the existing 3.8% capital gains tax as part of the Affordable Care Act would also be applied at this top level, creating a potential Federal Capital Gains Tax of 43.4%. This would be the highest rate since the 1920s, which hasn’t exceeded 33.8% in the last 100 years. This figure also does not account for any state or local taxes.
It’s important to note that these potential tax rates are still speculative. Nothing has yet to be formally rolled out by the Biden Administration, let alone voted on by Congress.
Much like the equity market, Treasury yields remained virtually unchanged for the week. The Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond index managed to add 13 basis points to recoup some of its earlier losses. The Bond index closed the week with a year-to-date loss of just under 2.5%.
Join Mike Desepoli for the Monday Morning Market Minute for April 26th as he discusses the big slate of corporate earnings coming up this week.
Join Mike Desepoli for the Heritage Market Pulse for April 23rd as he discusses the Biden administrations proposal to raise capital gains taxes to 43.8%, more than doubling the current rate.
Welcome to the Monday Morning Market Minute for April 12th! This week Mike Desepoli discusses Fed chair Jerome Powell's appearance on 60 minutes, and what message he is sending to the markets. Later this week, earnings season kicks off yet again and we will be watching closely. Have a great Monday!
Join Mike Desepoli of Heritage for the Monday Morning Market Minute for April 5th, 2021.
Welcome to the Monday Morning Market Minute for March 29th! Markets continue to chop as the first quarter comes to an end. There is likely to be volatility this week and the market has a few major events on the economic calendar.....but history suggest there might be a surprise awaiting investors in the month of April. Join Mike Desepoli as he discusses all that and more.
Welcome to the Monday Morning Market Minute for March 22nd! Tech shares look to resume their market leadership as treasury yields back off for the first time this month. Mike Desepoli walks you through the key market movers for this week. Have a happy Monday!
The major markets retreated once again as all 5 indices closed lower. The losses were evenly paced as all five closed within half a percent of each other. This occurred despite fresh all-time high in the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones.
Looking back at last week, possibly the most consequential economic event that took place was Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s Wednesday press conference. During the question-and-answer segment, Powell was asked if it was time to start “…talking about talking about tapering yet?” to which he chuckled and replied “Not yet.”
This exchange highlighted quite clearly the dovish and patent stance the Fed has taken to stimulate the domestic market despite the recent rise in treasury interest rates.
Not surprisingly, the Fed made no changes to the Fed Funds Rate which has remained between 0 and 25 basis points for a year now. Furthermore, Powell stated that a majority of the fed members didn’t anticipate an increase in the Fed Funds rate for the next three years.
Meanwhile, treasuries saw the long-term end of the yield curve climb higher yet again as it represented the eighth consecutive week of increases in the 10-year yield. The 10-year closed Friday at 1.74% after testing the 1.76% rate midweek.
The rise in interest rates contributed to the stalled performance at the sector level which saw mixed returns. The notable standout was the loss in the S&P 500 Energy sector which dropped over seven and half percent last week after seven consecutive weeks of gains. Nevertheless, the Energy sector remains the top performer year to date with a gain over 29%.
With this being the last full week of the first quarter, overall performance has been positive with losses only in two sectors and gains across all five major markets.
Welcome to the Monday Morning Market Minute for March 15th! Markets are trying to turn the corner in early action and our time has alot of things on our mind. Mike Desepoli revisits our take on treasury yields, as well as shares some of our high frequency data which is very encouraging. Have a great day!
Welcome to the Heritage Market Pulse for Friday March 12th! Markets are looking to post their first weekly gain in three weeks. Mike Desepoli discusses why the recent media frenzy around "rising yields" posing a risk to the market is preposterous. Have a great weekend!
Welcome to the Heritage Market Minute for March 8th, 2021. The markets have entered correction territory as volatility has returned, Mike Desepoli shares some insights into how the Heritage team is approaching this week.
Welcome to the Monday Morning Market Minute for March 1st, 2021. This week markets try to claw back from last week's sell-off. There are a few things the Heritage team are keying in on as they evaluate the markets this week. Mike Desepoli explains in the M4.
Welcome to the Heritage Market Pulse for Friday February 26th! Markets have been correcting all week, and Mike Desepoli explains what is driving the recent moves in stocks and what the team is looking for to signal and end to the volatility. Have a great weekend!
Welcome to the Monday Morning Market Minute for February 22nd, 2021. Markets continue to consolidate recent gains by moving sideways. Later this week we will hear testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell as he shares his outlook for the economy. Mike Desepoli discusses the ramifications of this and more in this week's show.
The major markets climbed back toward all-time highs as all five indices closed the week higher. Emerging Markets added an impressive 2.4% making it the first of the major markets to reflect a double-digit return year to date.
Much like Emerging markets, small caps had been under pressure for much of 2020. However, Small caps have continued to outperform their large cap peers since late last year. The greatest gains across the style boxes were seen in Small Cap Growth which sit with a year-to-date gain of 17.06% as of Friday’s close.
At the sector level, 8 of the 11 sectors closed higher with Consumer Discretionary and Utilities seeing the greatest losses. Meanwhile, Energy added 4.33% last week, adding to its 2021 outperformance. Last week’s gains in Crude Oil and Natural Gas were a continuation of rising energy prices due to the polar vortex hanging over the country the last 10 days.
Headlines describing the strain on the nationwide power grid read like something more appropriate in the peak of the dog days of summer. It was reported that more than 4 million homes in the United States and Mexico have experienced some form of blackouts. Natural Gas was simply unavailable in some regions, sending some power plants offline.
In Economic news, the Consumer Price Index reflected a gain of 0.3% as inflation fears were stayed for the time being. However, Friday’s Consumer Sentiment fell from 79 to 76.2 marking a six-month low for the index. Furthermore, families earning less than $75,000 annually reported the largest decline in optimism.
Finally, the yield curve remained largely unchanged last week with some steepening occurring in the longer-term yields. This weighed on bonds, causing returns to fall, taking the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index to a year-to-date loss of 1.23%.
Welcome to the Monday Morning Market Minute for February 8th. The markets are picking up this week right where they left off last week, with additional gains. Signs point to more stimulus on the horizon, and the market sure loves that. Join Mike Desepoli as he lays out the key market drivers for this week.
This week in the Heritage Market Minute, Mike Desepoli explains the situation surrounding GameStop stock and how it may affect broader markets.
Welcome to the Monday Morning Market Minute for January 25th! It's a big week for the market as earnings season is now in full swing. Our team will be watching closely to see if these earnings validate the recovery we are seeing in the economy. Join Mike Desepoli from Heritage as he walks you through our though process this week.
Join Lou Desepoli of Heritage Financial Advisory Group for the 2021 Heritage Market Outlook.
Join Mike Desepoli from Heritage Financial Advisory Group as he lays out their market outlook for 2021.
Welcome to the Monday Morning Market Minute for Novemer 30th. Markets look to wrap up their best November in 33 years, while the holiday shopping season is now in full swing with Black Friday and Cyber Monday underway. Join Mike Desepoli as he discusses the potential impact on the market this week.
Welcome to the Monday Morning Market Minute for November 16th, 2020! This week on the M4, Mike Desepoli discusses the latest vaccine developments and why it's important for the economic recovery. Have a great Monday!
The Major Markets skyrocketed last week. In fact, pretty much every major equity index climbed higher. The greatest gains were in the NADSAQ as the tech index added nine percentage points.
This was even more apparent at the sector level as the S&P 500 Information Technology sector posted an even larger gain with a return of 9.70%. The only sector that ended under a single percentage point higher was energy as the sector was pulled down do to weakness in Natural Gas.
Last week opened higher and climber with each subsequent day before pausing Friday as the S&P 500 ended virtually flat on the day. The weekly gain in the S&P 500 marked the largest gain since April and the third largest weekly gain for the year.
While some may have attributed the gains to results of last week’s election, half the gains were made before the polls closed Tuesday night. On that note, the results of the 2020 election will likely continue to make headlines for the rest of the year.
No-doubt you are already aware that as of election night, no clear winner of the presidential election had been declared. Both candidates declared themselves as the eventual winner Wednesday. And as the week wore on, Former Vice President Joe Biden appeared to narrow the gap to the required 270 electoral votes needed to be declared president. Over the weekend, various news agencies declared him the winner and the President Elect of the United States.
In a normal year, this would be the end of it. But this is 2020…
President Trump promptly declared that lawsuits would be filed in various states as allegations of inaccuracies and shenanigans began to swirl. This was compounded by the unusually large use of mail in votes and a court case that allowed votes to be received through Friday in Pennsylvania.
The intent of all this context is not to speak to the validity or the merit of the current claims of either candidate, but to highlight the political situation that may impact the markets between now and when the president will be sworn in in January.
Additionally, the races in the House and the Senate ended mixed. Democrats look likely to pick up one seat in the Senate with a run-off election in Georgia likely to take place January 5th which should resolve which party has the majority. Meanwhile, the Democrats look likely to lose 4 seats in the House with the Republicans likely to pick up 5 seats, narrowing the Democrat majority in the House.
This new political environment is likely to make the prospect of a massive stimulus bill, significant changes to tax rates, and modification to existing health-care laws a non-starter in Washington for the immediate future.
In economic news, the October BLS nonfarm payroll report came out showing 638,000 new jobs. Furthermore, the unemployment rate fell to 6.9%. This, along with the FOMC Press Conference Thursday was overshadowed by the election and overall political news that will likely continue to dominate news for the weeks to come.
This week in the Monday Morning Market Minutes Mike discusses the big vaccine news from Pfizer that has the market moving higher.
The Major Markets saw the gains bleed away last week after three consecutive positive weeks in the domestic market. The greatest losses appeared in the Technology centric Nasdaq. This was especially apparent at the sector level as the Information Technology Sector fell 2.2% This broke a four-week run after September’s pullback. Optimism faded last week as neither the White House nor Congress could come to an agreement on another Stimulus Deal. Ironically, the gains after Monday’s initial drop were fueled at least in part in the hopes that Nancy Pelosi and Steven Mnuchin had narrowed their differences on a new bill. However, political anxiety ramped up as Joe Biden’s son and Amy Coney Barrett’s supreme court nomination fueled an already tense week. Thursday’s presidential debate then served as the exclamation point to these events. As tensions flared, the longer-term end of the yield curve rose. By Friday’s close, the ten-year treasury climbed 9 basis points while the 30-year rose 12 basis points. The gains in interest rates supported financials which was one of the four segments of the S&P 500 which managed to close higher for the week by Friday. Yet the greatest gains were seen in the Communication Services Sector. The S&P 500 Communication Services sector is the newest and one of the smallest segments based upon the number of companies of the Blue-Chip index. Launched only two years ago in September 2018, the sector was created to address the changing landscape of technology and telecommunications Last week, Snap, one of the 26 constituents in the Communication Services sector, beat their earnings forecast when their report broke causing the company to surge 52% in just a week, dragging the overall sector higher. This week, earnings season continues, hopefully serving as a productive distraction from the political horrors you may be feeling ahead of Election Day.
This week on the Monday Morning Market Minute, Mike breaks down some important newsworthy events this week in the markets. Rising Covid cases, no signs of stimulus, and a GDP report this Friday that will tell us what kind of shape the economy is in. Take a look and reach out to us with any questions. Happy Monday!
Join Lou Desepoli of Heritage Financial Advisory Group for the Heritage Market Update for the 4th quarter of 2020.
Join Mike Desepoli of Heritage Financial Advisory Group for the Heritage Market Update for the 4th quarter of 2020.
In this edition of M4, Mike Desepoli discusses 3 things the Heritage team is keeping an eye on this week in the markets in 1 minute or less.
Lou Desepoli of Heritage Financial Advisory Group provides the quarterly market update and outlook for July 2020.
Mike Desepoli of Heritage Financial Advisory Group provides the quarterly market update and outlook for July 2020.
The major markets experienced losses last week as US-China tensions and coronavirus concerns were renewed. The tech centric Nasdaq fell about the same as the MSCI Emerging Market index. Meanwhile, the Dow, S&P 500 and MSCI World Indices all fell down in the mid 2% range.
The losses were fairly consistent at the sector level with only Healthcare ending in positive territory for the week. Energy suffered the greatest losses but was followed closely by real estate. The losses in the Energy sector were despite gains made in the GSCI Crude Oil Index totaling 8.63% for the week. It was the GSCI Natural Gas Index that was hit with a loss of 11.9% for the week.
Real Estate and Financials both suffered last week as the Mortgage Bankers Association reported another increase in the weekly mortgage forbearance rate to 7.91%An increase was expected as a new month began and more borrowers requested forbearance on their home loans. Mike Fratantoni, MBA's Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research and Industry Technology, said that “FHA and VA borrowers have been most impacted by the job losses thus far, with the share of Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance at almost 11 percent.”
The economic instability has cause some to wonder if we might see negative rate in the Fed Funds Rate by next year. Midweek, Fed Chair Jerome Powell squelched the idea of negative interest rate in the U.S. stating, “The committee’s view on negative rates really has not changed. This is not something that we’re looking at.”
Finally, on Friday the U.S. Department of Commerce announced plans to restrict Huawei from using American made technology and software in its manufacturing of semiconductors. The rule change is set to go in effect in September. “Despite the Entity List actions the Department took last year, Huawei and its foreign affiliates have stepped-up efforts to undermine these national security-based restrictions through an indigenization effort. However, that effort is still dependent on U.S. technologies,” said Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross.
This news echoes last years trade war headlines as the US, along with much of the world, looks to China for explanation for the handling of information and mitigation for the early days of the coronavirus pandemic.
The major markets closed mostly higher with emerging markets being the exception. The greatest gains were in the Nasdaq as the information technology sector was a significant outperformer.
But in a pleasant change of pace, all 11 sectors closed the week in the green. And as impressive as the gains were in the IT space, they were shadowed by the gains in Energy.
After weeks of turmoil, energy prices significantly recovered last week. The GSCI Crude Oil index added 17.5% by Friday’s close. However, the index is still down -76.42% year to date.
This was a similar story for the Unleaded Gasoline Index. Gasoline added 24.45% last week after average nationwide gasoline prices recovered slightly from the 4-year low of $1.655 marked the week of April 27th. As it stands now, the May 11th, reading of $1.75 is still well below the 52-week average of $2.38 a gallon.
The week ended with the release of April’s BLS Employment Situation Report. The headline reading of a decline of 20.5 million jobs was in line with the weekly initial jobless claims data being reported by the Department of Labor. As a result, the unemployment rate rose to 14.7%, a level not seen since the Great Depression.
One somewhat positive aspect of this report was the number of unemployed persons who reported as being on temporary layoff increased about ten-fold to 18.1 million. In other words, about 80% of the people who are currently on unemployment, only view it as temporary.
Mike Desepoli of Heritage discusses key events we saw in the past quarter, like the Covid 19 pandemic and the ensuing government response, and how we think they'll affect markets over the next few months.
Lou Desepoli of Heritage discusses key events we saw in the past quarter, like the Covid 19 pandemic and the ensuing government response, and how we think they'll affect markets over the next few months.
Mike Desepoli discusses the Coronavirus and shares his thoughts on how the market will respond.
US equity markets have experience downbeat trading activity as investors keep one eye trained on a deadly flu outbreak in China. We discuss what to expect moving forward, and how markets behaved during past viral outbreaks.
With the close of one year and the beginning of another, it's a great time for us to quickly update you on the markets.
Check out Heritage Market Insights below as we discuss the following:
- Recap of the markets in 2019
- Update on the economy
- A few things we are watching closely
- Discuss our current portfolio strategy
With the close of one year and the beginning of another, it's a great time for us to quickly update you on the markets.
Check out Heritage Market Insights below as we discuss the following:
- Recap of the markets in 2019
- Update on the economy
- A few things we are watching closely
- Discuss our current portfolio strategy
Investors had a lot to be thankful for last week as the major markets traded to fresh all-time highs. The Nasdaq gave the markets a belated Christmas gift on Thursday as it crossed the threshold of 9000 for the first time. There was a reported increase in retail sales this holiday season, and that was buttressed by the SpendingPulse report from MasterCard which reported a 3.4% year over year increase, excluding autos. Online Sales grew even more with an increase of 18.8% compared to last year. The late Thanksgiving holiday was highlighted as a factor in retail stores utilizing discounts and sales earlier in the season to recoup lost gift buying time in brick and mortar stores. With only hours of trading left in 2019, overall, the markets look to record one of the better returns in history. As we look forward to 2020, we’d like to wish you a Happy New Year.
The Major Markets closed mostly higher as the Nasdaq, Dow Jones, and S&P 500 all closed higher with each seeing new all-time highs last week.
Furthermore, the S&P 500 traded over 3100 for the first time ever on Tuesday, followed by the Dow crossing over 28,000 for the first time on Friday.
Markets saw new heights last week as the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ both registered all-time new highs. The weekly gains were fueled by a plethora of earnings, economic reports, Fed action, and general geopolitical optimism. 3rd quarter earnings continue to be reported over the next couple of weeks, with the greatest number to be released this week. As it stands, roughly three fourths of the S&P 500 earnings have been released with three quarters of those firms beating expectations.
Welcome to the 4th quarter. It's time for us to quickly update you on the markets.
Check out Heritage Market Insights below as we discuss the following:
- Markets post strong gains through 9 months.
- Federal Reserve moves to cut interest rates.
- Trade Deja-vu? China delegates converge on Washington DC this week as trade talks resume.
Welcome to the 4th quarter. It's time for us to quickly update you on the markets.
Check out Heritage Market Insights below as we discuss the following:
- Markets post strong gains through 9 months.
- Federal Reserve moves to cut interest rates.
- Trade Deja-vu? China delegates converge on Washington DC this week as trade talks resume.
Markets were slightly lower last week as a phone call between President Trump and the President of Ukraine came into focus, and the house launched an impeachment inquiry.
It may be the end of August, but don't tell that to the stock market. Tensions ratcheted back up last week with the US and China exchanging in a tit for tat tariff escalation. Simultaneously, Jerome Powell was giving his annual Jackson Hole speech about the future path of interest rates. What does it all mean for the markets? Check out this week's Heritage Insider.
Stock volatility, the protests in Hong Kong, and possible more interest rate cuts? We break it all down in this week's Heritage Insider.
The US took their shot, and China responded. How will it all play out in trade negotiations? Check out this week's Heritage Insider to find out.
It's been a busy and volatile week for the markets, and it all comes down to the Four T's. Trade, Tweets, Tariffs, and Trump. We break down all the action and more on this week's Heritage Insider Weekly.
What do Tweets, Tariffs, and Trade have in common? They are creating for a pretty bumpy ride so far this month in financial markets. Tune in for our thoughts on how to keep calm and invest on.
The anxiety many investors are currently feeling is certainly palpable, but Mike Desepoli discusses how in times like these discipline and nerves of steel are more important than ever. Markets may be down, but they are certainly not out. Good times will come again for those who can manage to keep calm, and invest on. Take a listen.
October was a rough month for stocks, but the future is still bright. Lou and Mike Desepoli break down where they see opportunity, and what comes next for markets.
Join Mike Desepoli for a quarterly update as he discusses the economy, markets, headwinds, and what’s to come for the 4th quarter of 2018.
Recent consumer sentiment reports indicate that Americans consumers are feeling very optimistic about their economic prospects, so optimistic that their enthusiasm is at it’s highest level since 2004. What does it all mean for the markets? Tune in to find out!
Major US stock market indices climbed into record territory during August, but gave back some of their gains last week as the trump administration ratcheted up its trade rhetoric on China. We discuss what it all means.
President Donald Trump said Monday that the United States and Mexico have an agreement in place paving the way for revisions to the North American free trade agreement.
After a rocky start, the SP500 came within 1% of an all time high last week. Will it finally break out to new highs?
So how did Turkey, a country that accounts for just 1.4 percent of the world’s economy spark a global sell off last week? Tune in to find out.